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Sample records for randomized upper confidence

  1. Rare attributes in finite universe: Hypotheses testing specification and exact randomized upper confidence bounds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wright, T.

    1993-03-01

    When attributes are rare and few or none are observed in the selected sample from a finite universe, sampling statisticians are increasingly being challenged to use whatever methods are available to declare with high probability or confidence that the universe is near or completely attribute-free. This is especially true when the attribute is undesirable. Approximations such as those based on normal theory are frequently inadequate with rare attributes. For simple random sampling without replacement, an appropriate probability distribution for statistical inference is the hypergeometric distribution. But even with the hypergeometric distribution, the investigator is limited from making claims of attribute-free with high confidence unless the sample size is quite large using nonrandomized techniques. In the hypergeometric setting with rare attributes, exact randomized tests of hypothesis a,re investigated to determine the effect on power of how one specifies the null hypothesis. In particular, specifying the null hypothesis as zero attributes does not always yield maximum possible power. We also consider the hypothesis specification question under complex sampling designs including stratified random sampling and two-stage cluster sampling (one case involves random selection at first stage and another case involves probability proportional to size without replacement selection at first stage). Also under simple random sampling, this article defines and presents a simple algorithm for the construction of exact ``randomized`` upper confidence bounds which permit one to possibly report tighter bounds than those exact bounds obtained using ``nonrandomized`` methods.

  2. Rare attributes in finite universe: Hypotheses testing specification and exact randomized upper confidence bounds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wright, T.

    1993-03-01

    When attributes are rare and few or none are observed in the selected sample from a finite universe, sampling statisticians are increasingly being challenged to use whatever methods are available to declare with high probability or confidence that the universe is near or completely attribute-free. This is especially true when the attribute is undesirable. Approximations such as those based on normal theory are frequently inadequate with rare attributes. For simple random sampling without replacement, an appropriate probability distribution for statistical inference is the hypergeometric distribution. But even with the hypergeometric distribution, the investigator is limited from making claims of attribute-free with high confidence unless the sample size is quite large using nonrandomized techniques. In the hypergeometric setting with rare attributes, exact randomized tests of hypothesis a,re investigated to determine the effect on power of how one specifies the null hypothesis. In particular, specifying the null hypothesis as zero attributes does not always yield maximum possible power. We also consider the hypothesis specification question under complex sampling designs including stratified random sampling and two-stage cluster sampling (one case involves random selection at first stage and another case involves probability proportional to size without replacement selection at first stage). Also under simple random sampling, this article defines and presents a simple algorithm for the construction of exact randomized'' upper confidence bounds which permit one to possibly report tighter bounds than those exact bounds obtained using nonrandomized'' methods.

  3. Random attractors for asymptotically upper semicompact multivalue random semiflows

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    The present paper studied the dynamics of some multivalued random semiflow. The corresponding concept of random attractor for this case was introduced to study asymptotic behavior. The existence of random attractor of multivalued random semiflow was proved under the assumption of pullback asymptotically upper semicompact, and this random attractor is random compact and invariant. Furthermore, if the system has ergodicity, then this random attractor is the limit set of a deterministic bounded set.

  4. Simultaneous confidence bands for Cox regression from semiparametric random censorship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondal, Shoubhik; Subramanian, Sundarraman

    2016-01-01

    Cox regression is combined with semiparametric random censorship models to construct simultaneous confidence bands (SCBs) for subject-specific survival curves. Simulation results are presented to compare the performance of the proposed SCBs with the SCBs that are based only on standard Cox. The new SCBs provide correct empirical coverage and are more informative. The proposed SCBs are illustrated with two real examples. An extension to handle missing censoring indicators is also outlined.

  5. Students' intentions towards studying science at upper-secondary school: the differential effects of under-confidence and over-confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheldrake, Richard

    2016-05-01

    Understanding students' intentions to study science at upper-secondary school, at university, and to follow science careers continues as a central concern for international science education. Prior research has highlighted that students' science confidence has been associated with their intentions to study science further, although under-confidence and over-confidence (lower or higher confidence than expected, given someone's attainment) have not been considered in detail. Accordingly, this study explored whether under-confident, accurately evaluating, and over-confident students expressed different attitudes towards their science education, and explored how under-confidence and over-confidence might influence students' science intentions. The questionnaire responses of 1523 students from 12 secondary schools in England were considered through analysis of variance and predictive modelling. Under-confident students expressed consistently lower science attitudes than accurately evaluating and over-confident students, despite reporting the same science grades as accurately evaluating students. Students' intentions to study science were predicted by different factors in different ways, depending on whether the students were under-confident, accurate, or over-confident. For accurately evaluating and over-confident students, science intentions were predicted by their self-efficacy beliefs (their confidence in their expected future science attainment). For under-confident students, science intentions were predicted by their self-concept beliefs (their confidence in currently 'doing well' or 'being good' at science). Many other differences were also apparent. Fundamentally, under-confidence may be detrimental not simply through associating with lower attitudes, but through students considering their choices in different ways. Under-confidence may accordingly require attention to help ensure that students' future choices are not unnecessarily constrained.

  6. Students' Intentions towards Studying Science at Upper-Secondary School: The Differential Effects of Under-Confidence and Over-Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheldrake, Richard

    2016-01-01

    Understanding students' intentions to study science at upper-secondary school, at university, and to follow science careers continues as a central concern for international science education. Prior research has highlighted that students' science confidence has been associated with their intentions to study science further, although…

  7. Families of smooth confidence bands for the survival function under the general random censorship model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulati, S; Padgett, W J

    1996-01-01

    Randomly right censored data often arise in industrial life testing and clinical trials. Several authors have proposed asymptotic confidence bands for the survival function when data are randomly censored on the right. All of these bands are based on the empirical estimator of the survival function. In this paper, families of asymptotic (1-alpha) 100% level confidence bands are developed from the smoothed estimate of the survival function under the general random censorship model. The new bands are compared to empirical bands, and it is shown that for small sample sizes, the smooth bands have a higher coverage probability than the empirical counterparts.

  8. On confidence intervals for the hazard ratio in randomized clinical trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Dan-Yu; Dai, Luyan; Cheng, Gang; Sailer, Martin Oliver

    2016-12-01

    The log-rank test is widely used to compare two survival distributions in a randomized clinical trial, while partial likelihood (Cox, 1975) is the method of choice for making inference about the hazard ratio under the Cox (1972) proportional hazards model. The Wald 95% confidence interval of the hazard ratio may include the null value of 1 when the p-value of the log-rank test is less than 0.05. Peto et al. (1977) provided an estimator for the hazard ratio based on the log-rank statistic; the corresponding 95% confidence interval excludes the null value of 1 if and only if the p-value of the log-rank test is less than 0.05. However, Peto's estimator is not consistent, and the corresponding confidence interval does not have correct coverage probability. In this article, we construct the confidence interval by inverting the score test under the (possibly stratified) Cox model, and we modify the variance estimator such that the resulting score test for the null hypothesis of no treatment difference is identical to the log-rank test in the possible presence of ties. Like Peto's method, the proposed confidence interval excludes the null value if and only if the log-rank test is significant. Unlike Peto's method, however, this interval has correct coverage probability. An added benefit of the proposed confidence interval is that it tends to be more accurate and narrower than the Wald confidence interval. We demonstrate the advantages of the proposed method through extensive simulation studies and a colon cancer study.

  9. Calculation of upper confidence bounds on not-sampled vegetation types using a systematic grid sample: An application to map unit definition for existing vegetation maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul L. Patterson; Mark Finco

    2009-01-01

    This paper explores the information FIA data can produce regarding forest types that were not sampled and develops the equations necessary to define the upper confidence bounds on not-sampled forest types. The problem is reduced to a Bernoulli variable. This simplification allows the upper confidence bounds to be calculated based on Cochran (1977). Examples are...

  10. Calculation of upper confidence bounds on proportion of area containing not-sampled vegetation types: An application to map unit definition for existing vegetation maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul L. Patterson; Mark Finco

    2011-01-01

    This paper explores the information forest inventory data can produce regarding forest types that were not sampled and develops the equations necessary to define the upper confidence bounds on not-sampled forest types. The problem is reduced to a Bernoulli variable. This simplification allows the upper confidence bounds to be calculated based on Cochran (1977)....

  11. Confidence intervals for single-case effect size measures based on randomization test inversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michiels, Bart; Heyvaert, Mieke; Meulders, Ann; Onghena, Patrick

    2017-02-01

    In the current paper, we present a method to construct nonparametric confidence intervals (CIs) for single-case effect size measures in the context of various single-case designs. We use the relationship between a two-sided statistical hypothesis test at significance level α and a 100 (1 - α) % two-sided CI to construct CIs for any effect size measure θ that contain all point null hypothesis θ values that cannot be rejected by the hypothesis test at significance level α. This method of hypothesis test inversion (HTI) can be employed using a randomization test as the statistical hypothesis test in order to construct a nonparametric CI for θ. We will refer to this procedure as randomization test inversion (RTI). We illustrate RTI in a situation in which θ is the unstandardized and the standardized difference in means between two treatments in a completely randomized single-case design. Additionally, we demonstrate how RTI can be extended to other types of single-case designs. Finally, we discuss a few challenges for RTI as well as possibilities when using the method with other effect size measures, such as rank-based nonoverlap indices. Supplementary to this paper, we provide easy-to-use R code, which allows the user to construct nonparametric CIs according to the proposed method.

  12. The Impact of Incorporating Student Confidence Items into an Intelligent Tutor: A Randomized Controlled Trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, Charles; Heffernan, Neil; Ostrow, Korinn; Wang, Yutao

    2015-01-01

    For at least the last century researchers have advocated the use of student confidence as a form of educational assessment and the growth of online and mobile educational software has made the implementation of this measurement far easier. The following short paper discusses our first study of the dynamics of student confidence in an online math…

  13. Confident body, confident child: A randomized controlled trial evaluation of a parenting resource for promoting healthy body image and eating patterns in 2- to 6-year old children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hart, Laura M; Damiano, Stephanie R; Paxton, Susan J

    2016-05-01

    Body image and eating patterns develop in early childhood and are influenced by the family environment. This research evaluated Confident Body, Confident Child (CBCC), an intervention for parents of 2- to 6-year-old children, designed to promote body satisfaction, healthy eating, and weight management in early childhood. A randomized controlled trial compared four groups: (A) received the CBCC resource pack and a workshop, (B) received the CBCC resource pack only, (C) received a nutrition-only resource and (D) received no interventions until all questionnaires were completed (i.e., functioned as waitlist control). Measures of parenting variables relevant to child body image and eating patterns, parent-report of child weight, and evaluation questions about the resource, were implemented pre- and post-intervention. At 6-weeks post-intervention, the CBCC resource was associated with significant reductions in parents' intentions to use behaviors that increase the risk of negative body attitudes or unhealthy eating in their children, in parents' use of feeding practices associated with childhood overweight, and in television watching during family meals. Significant increases in parents' intentions to use positive behaviors and knowledge of child body image and healthy eating patterns were also found. Superior results were found for the CBCC resource + workshop condition, suggesting it is the preferred delivery method. CBCC positively impacts parenting variables associated with childhood risk for body dissatisfaction, unhealthy eating and weight. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. (Int J Eat Disord 2016; 49:458-472). © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. GENERALIZED p-VALUES AND GENERALIZED CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR VARIANCE COMPONENTS IN GENERAL RANDOM EFFECT MODEL WITH BALANCED DATA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Rendao YE; Songgui WANG

    2007-01-01

    Various random models with balanced data that are relevant for analyzing practical test data are described, along with several hypothesis testing and interval estimation problems concerning variance components. In this paper, we mainly consider these problems in general random effect model with balanced data. Exact tests and confidence intervals for a single variance component corresponding to random effect are developed by using generalized p-values and generalized confidence intervals.The resulting procedures are easy to compute and are applicable to small samples. Exact tests and confidence intervals are also established for comparing the random-effects variance components and the sum of random-effects variance components in two independent general random effect models with balanced data. Furthermore, we investigate the statistical properties of the resulting tests. Finally,some simulation results on the type Ⅰ error probability and power of the proposed test are reported.The simulation results indicate that exact test is extremely satisfactory for controlling type Ⅰ error probability.

  15. Effect of Simulation on the Confidence of University Nursing Students in Applying Cardiopulmonary Assessment Skills: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tawalbeh, Loai I

    2017-08-01

    Simulation is an effective teaching strategy. However, no study in Jordan has examined the effect of simulation on the confidence of university nursing students in applying heart and lung physical examination skills. The current study aimed to test the effect of simulation on the confidence of university nursing students in applying heart and lung physical examination skills. A randomized controlled trial design was applied. The researcher introduced the simulation scenario regarding cardiopulmonary examination skills. This scenario included a 1-hour PowerPoint presentation and video for the experimental group (n= 35) and a PowerPoint presentation and a video showing a traditional demonstration in the laboratory for the control group (n = 34). Confidence in applying cardiopulmonary physical examination skills was measured for both groups at baseline and at 1 day and 3 months posttest. A paired t test showed that confidence was significantly higher in the posttest than in the pretest for both groups. An independent t test showed a statistically significant difference (t(67) = -42.95, p confidence in applying physical examination skills. Both simulation and traditional training in the laboratory significantly improved the confidence of participants in applying cardiopulmonary assessment skills. However, the simulation training had a more significant effect than usual training in enhancing the confidence of nursing students in applying physical examination skills.

  16. Confidence intervals for a random-effects meta-analysis based on Bartlett-type corrections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noma, Hisashi

    2011-12-10

    In medical meta-analysis, the DerSimonian-Laird confidence interval for the average treatment effect has been widely adopted in practice. However, it is well known that its coverage probability (the probability that the interval actually includes the true value) can be substantially below the target level. One particular reason is that the validity of the confidence interval depends on the assumption that the number of synthesized studies is sufficiently large. In typical medical meta-analyses, the number of studies is fewer than 20. In this article, we developed three confidence intervals for improving coverage properties, based on (i) the Bartlett corrected likelihood ratio statistic, (ii) the efficient score statistic, and (iii) the Bartlett-type adjusted efficient score statistic. The Bartlett and Bartlett-type corrections improve the large sample approximations for the likelihood ratio and efficient score statistics. Through numerical evaluations by simulations, these confidence intervals demonstrated better coverage properties than the existing methods. In particular, with a moderate number of synthesized studies, the Bartlett and Bartlett-type corrected confidence intervals performed well. An application to a meta-analysis of the treatment for myocardial infarction with intravenous magnesium is presented.

  17. Balance and Gait Training With Augmented Feedback Improves Balance Confidence in People With Parkinson's Disease: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Xia; Mak, Margaret K Y

    2014-07-01

    Background Fear of falling has been identified as an important and independent fall-risk predictor in patients with Parkinson's disease (PD). However, there are inconsistent findings on the effects of balance and gait training on balance confidence. Objective To explore whether balance and gait training with augmented feedback can enhance balance confidence in PD patients immediately after treatment and at 3- and 12-month follow-ups. Methods A total of 51 PD patients were randomly assigned to a balance and gait training (BAL) group or to an active control (CON) group. The BAL group received balance and gait training with augmented feedback, whereas CON participants received lower-limb strength training for 12 weeks. Outcome measures included Activities-Specific Balance Confidence (ABC) Scale, limits-of-stability test, single-leg-stance test, and spatiotemporal gait characteristics. All tests were administered before intervention (Pre), immediately after training (Post), and at 3 months (Post3m) and 12 months (Post12m) after treatment completion. Results The ABC score improved marginally at Post and significantly at Post3m and Post12m only in the BAL group (P confidence and balance and gait performance in patients with PD.

  18. Classroom-based Interventions and Teachers' Perceived Job Stressors and Confidence: Evidence from a Randomized Trial in Head Start Settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhai, Fuhua; Raver, C Cybele; Li-Grining, Christine

    2011-09-01

    Preschool teachers' job stressors have received increasing attention but have been understudied in the literature. We investigated the impacts of a classroom-based intervention, the Chicago School Readiness Project (CSRP), on teachers' perceived job stressors and confidence, as indexed by their perceptions of job control, job resources, job demands, and confidence in behavior management. Using a clustered randomized controlled trial (RCT) design, the CSRP provided multifaceted services to the treatment group, including teacher training and mental health consultation, which were accompanied by stress-reduction services and workshops. Overall, 90 teachers in 35 classrooms at 18 Head Start sites participated in the study. After adjusting for teacher and classroom factors and site fixed effects, we found that the CSRP had significant effects on the improvement of teachers' perceived job control and work-related resources. We also found that the CSRP decreased teachers' confidence in behavior management and had no statistically significant effects on job demands. Overall, we did not find significant moderation effects of teacher race/ethnicity, education, teaching experience, or teacher type. The implications for research and policy are discussed.

  19. Upper Semicontinuity of Attractors for a Non-Newtonian Fluid under Small Random Perturbations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianxin Luo

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the limiting behavior of attractors for a two-dimensional incompressible non-Newtonian fluid under small random perturbations. Under certain conditions, the upper semicontinuity of the attractors for diminishing perturbations is shown.

  20. Generation, combination and extension of random set approximations to coherent lower and upper probabilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hall, Jim W.; Lawry, Jonathan

    2004-09-01

    Random set theory provides a convenient mechanism for representing uncertain knowledge including probabilistic and set-based information, and extending it through a function. This paper focuses upon the situation when the available information is in terms of coherent lower and upper probabilities, which are encountered, for example, when a probability distribution is specified by interval parameters. We propose an Iterative Rescaling Method (IRM) for constructing a random set with corresponding belief and plausibility measures that are a close outer approximation to the lower and upper probabilities. The approach is compared with the discrete approximation method of Williamson and Downs (sometimes referred to as the p-box), which generates a closer approximation to lower and upper cumulative probability distributions but in most cases a less accurate approximation to the lower and upper probabilities on the remainder of the power set. Four combination methods are compared by application to example random sets generated using the IRM.

  1. Negatively Biased Relevant Subsets Induced by the Most-Powerful One-Sided Upper Confidence Limits for a Bounded Physical Parameter

    CERN Document Server

    Cousins, Robert D

    2011-01-01

    Suppose an observable x is the measured value (negative or non-negative) of a true mean mu (physically non-negative) in an experiment with a Gaussian resolution function with known fixed rms deviation s. The most powerful one-sided upper confidence limit at 95% C.L. is UL = x+1.64s, which I refer to as the "original diagonal line". Perceived problems in HEP with small or non-physical upper limits for x<0 historically led, for example, to substitution of max(0,x) for x, and eventually to abandonment in the Particle Data Group's Review of Particle Physics of this diagonal line relationship between UL and x. Recently Cowan, Cranmer, Gross, and Vitells (CCGV) have advocated a concept of "power constraint" that when applied to this problem yields variants of diagonal line, including UL = max(-1,x)+1.64s. Thus it is timely to consider again what is problematic about the original diagonal line, and whether or not modifications cure these defects. In a 2002 Comment, statistician Leon Jay Gleser pointed to the lite...

  2. Participation outcomes in a randomized trial of 2 models of upper-limb rehabilitation for children with congenital hemiplegia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakzewski, Leanne; Ziviani, Jenny; Abbott, David F; Macdonell, Richard A; Jackson, Graeme D; Boyd, Roslyn N

    2011-04-01

    To determine if constraint-induced movement therapy (CIMT) is more effective than bimanual training to improve occupational performance and participation in children with congenital hemiplegia. Single-blind randomized comparison trial with evaluations at baseline, 3, and 26 weeks. Community facilities in 2 Australian states. Referred sample of children (N=64; mean age ± SD, 10.2±2.7y, 52% boys) were matched for age, sex, side of hemiplegia, and upper-limb function and were randomized to CIMT or bimanual training. After random allocation, 100% of CIMT and 94% of the bimanual training group completed the intervention. Each intervention was delivered in day camps (total 60 h over 10d) using a circus theme with goal-directed training. Children receiving CIMT wore a tailor-made glove during the camp. The primary outcome was the Canadian Occupational Performance Measure (COPM). Secondary measures included the Assessment of Life Habits (LIFE-H), Children's Assessment of Participation and Enjoyment, and School Function Assessment. There were no between-group differences at baseline. Both groups made significant changes for COPM performance at 3 weeks (estimated mean difference =2.9; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.3-3.6; PRehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Efficacy of Upper Extremity Robotic Therapy in Subacute Poststroke Hemiplegia: An Exploratory Randomized Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Kayoko; Domen, Kazuhisa; Sakamoto, Tomosaburo; Toshima, Masahiko; Otaka, Yohei; Seto, Makiko; Irie, Katsumi; Haga, Bin; Takebayashi, Takashi; Hachisuka, Kenji

    2016-05-01

    Our aim was to study the efficacy of robotic therapy as an adjuvant to standard therapy during poststroke rehabilitation. Prospective, open, blinded end point, randomized, multicenter exploratory clinical trial in Japan of 60 individuals with mild to moderate hemiplegia 4 to 8 weeks post stroke randomized to receive standard therapy plus 40 minutes of either robotic or self-guided therapy for 6 weeks (7 days/week). Upper extremity impairment before and after intervention was measured using the Fugl-Meyer assessment, Wolf Motor Function Test, and Motor Activity Log. Robotic therapy significantly improved Fugl-Meyer assessment flexor synergy (2.1±2.7 versus -0.1±2.4; Prehabilitation may improve upper extremity recovery in moderately impaired poststroke patients. Results of this exploratory study should be interpreted with caution. URL: http://www.umin.ac.jp/. Unique identifier: UMIN000001619. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

  4. Effect of mirror therapy on upper extremity motor function in stroke patients: a randomized controlled trial

    OpenAIRE

    Gurbuz, Nigar; Afsar, Sevgi Ikbali; Ayaş, Sehri; Cosar, Sacide Nur Saracgil

    2016-01-01

    [Purpose] This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of mirror therapy combined with a conventional rehabilitation program on upper extremity motor and functional recovery in stroke patients. [Subjects and Methods] Thirty-one hemiplegic patients were included. The patients were randomly assigned to a mirror (n=16) or conventional group (n=15). The patients in both groups underwent conventional therapy for 4 weeks (60–120 minutes/day, 5 days/week). The mirror group received mirror therapy,...

  5. Developing Singing Confidence in Early Childhood Teachers Using Acceptance and Commitment Therapy and Group Singing: A Randomized Trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swain, Nicola; Bodkin-Allen, Sally

    2017-01-01

    Early childhood teachers are often required to sing, which requires confidence. The purpose of the present study was to treat early childhood teachers who self-identified as uncertain singers using either a group singing (GS) approach, or a talking approach, based on Acceptance and Commitment Therapy (ACT). The aim of the study was to increase…

  6. Upper cervical and upper thoracic thrust manipulation versus nonthrust mobilization in patients with mechanical neck pain: a multicenter randomized clinical trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunning, James R; Cleland, Joshua A; Waldrop, Mark A; Arnot, Cathy F; Young, Ian A; Turner, Michael; Sigurdsson, Gisli

    2012-01-01

    Randomized clinical trial. To compare the short-term effects of upper cervical and upper thoracic high-velocity low-amplitude (HVLA) thrust manipulation to nonthrust mobilization in patients with neck pain. Although upper cervical and upper thoracic HVLA thrust manipulation and nonthrust mobilization are common interventions for the management of neck pain, no studies have directly compared the effects of both upper cervical and upper thoracic HVLA thrust manipulation to nonthrust mobilization in patients with neck pain. Patients completed the Neck Disability Index, the numeric pain rating scale, the flexion-rotation test for measurement of C1-2 passive rotation range of motion, and the craniocervical flexion test for measurement of deep cervical flexor motor performance. Following the baseline evaluation, patients were randomized to receive either HVLA thrust manipulation or nonthrust mobilization to the upper cervical (C1-2) and upper thoracic (T1-2) spines. Patients were reexamined 48-hours after the initial examination and again completed the outcome measures. The effects of treatment on disability, pain, C1-2 passive rotation range of motion, and motor performance of the deep cervical flexors were examined with a 2-by-2 mixed-model analysis of variance (ANOVA). One hundred seven patients satisfied the eligibility criteria, agreed to participate, and were randomized into the HVLA thrust manipulation (n = 56) and nonthrust mobilization (n = 51) groups. The 2-by-2 ANOVA demonstrated that patients with mechanical neck pain who received the combination of upper cervical and upper thoracic HVLA thrust manipulation experienced significantly (Pthrust manipulation group had significantly (Pthrust manipulation is appreciably more effective in the short term than nonthrust mobilization in patients with mechanical neck pain. Therapy, level 1b.

  7. A comparison of confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient in community-based cluster randomization trials with a binary outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braschel, Melissa C; Svec, Ivana; Darlington, Gerarda A; Donner, Allan

    2016-04-01

    Many investigators rely on previously published point estimates of the intraclass correlation coefficient rather than on their associated confidence intervals to determine the required size of a newly planned cluster randomized trial. Although confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient that can be applied to community-based trials have been developed for a continuous outcome variable, fewer methods exist for a binary outcome variable. The aim of this study is to evaluate confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient applied to binary outcomes in community intervention trials enrolling a small number of large clusters. Existing methods for confidence interval construction are examined and compared to a new ad hoc approach based on dividing clusters into a large number of smaller sub-clusters and subsequently applying existing methods to the resulting data. Monte Carlo simulation is used to assess the width and coverage of confidence intervals for the intraclass correlation coefficient based on Smith's large sample approximation of the standard error of the one-way analysis of variance estimator, an inverted modified Wald test for the Fleiss-Cuzick estimator, and intervals constructed using a bootstrap-t applied to a variance-stabilizing transformation of the intraclass correlation coefficient estimate. In addition, a new approach is applied in which clusters are randomly divided into a large number of smaller sub-clusters with the same methods applied to these data (with the exception of the bootstrap-t interval, which assumes large cluster sizes). These methods are also applied to a cluster randomized trial on adolescent tobacco use for illustration. When applied to a binary outcome variable in a small number of large clusters, existing confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient provide poor coverage. However, confidence intervals constructed using the new approach combined with Smith

  8. A neurocognitive approach for recovering upper extremity movement following subacute stroke: a randomized controlled pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sallés, Laia; Martín-Casas, Patricia; Gironès, Xavier; Durà, María José; Lafuente, José Vicente; Perfetti, Carlo

    2017-04-01

    [Purpose] This study aims to describe a protocol based on neurocognitive therapeutic exercises and determine its feasibility and usefulness for upper extremity functionality when compared with a conventional protocol. [Subjects and Methods] Eight subacute stroke patients were randomly assigned to a conventional (control group) or neurocognitive (experimental group) treatment protocol. Both lasted 30 minutes, 3 times a week for 10 weeks and assessments were blinded. Outcome measures included: Motor Evaluation Scale for Upper Extremity in Stroke Patients, Motricity Index, Revised Nottingham Sensory Assessment and Kinesthetic and Visual Imagery Questionnaire. Descriptive measures and nonparametric statistical tests were used for analysis. [Results] The results indicate a more favorable clinical progression in the neurocognitive group regarding upper extremity functional capacity with achievement of the minimal detectable change. The functionality results are related with improvements on muscle strength and sensory discrimination (tactile and kinesthetic). [Conclusion] Despite not showing significant group differences between pre and post-treatment, the neurocognitive approach could be a safe and useful strategy for recovering upper extremity movement following stroke, especially regarding affected hands, with better and longer lasting results. Although this work shows this protocol's feasibility with the panel of scales proposed, larger studies are required to demonstrate its effectiveness.

  9. Erythromycin infusion prior to endoscopy for acute nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding: a pilot randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Na, Hee Kyong; Jung, Hwoon-Yong; Seo, Dong Woo; Lim, Hyun; Ahn, Ji Yong; Lee, Jeong Hoon; Kim, Do Hoon; Choi, Kee Don; Song, Ho June; Lee, Gin Hyug; Kim, Jin-Ho

    2017-03-28

    The aim of this study was to compare the effects of erythromycin infusion and gastric lavage in order to improve the quality of visualization during emergency upper endoscopy. We performed a prospective randomized pilot study. Patients presented with hematemesis or melena within 12 hours and were randomly assigned to the erythromycin group (intravenous infusion of erythromycin), gastric lavage group (nasogastric tube placement with gastric lavage), or erythromycin + gastric lavage group (both erythromycin infusion and gastric lavage). The primary outcome was satisfactory visualization. Secondary outcomes included identification of a bleeding source, the success rate of hemostasis, duration of endoscopy, complications related to erythromycin infusion or gastric lavage, number of transfused blood units, rebleeding rate, and bleeding-related mortality. A total of 43 patients were randomly assigned: 14 patients in the erythromycin group; 15 patients in the gastric lavage group; and 14 patients in the erythromycin + gastric lavage group. Overall satisfactory visualization was achieved in 81% of patients: 92.8% in the erythromycin group; 60.0% in the gastric lavage group; and 92.9% in the erythromycin + gastric lavage group, respectively (p = 0.055). The identification of a bleeding source was possible in all cases. The success rate of hemostasis, duration of endoscopy, and number of transfused blood units did not significantly differ between groups. There were no complications. Rebleeding occurred in three patients (7.0%). Bleeding-related mortality was not reported. Intravenous erythromycin infusion prior to emergency endoscopy for acute nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding seems to provide satisfactory endoscopic visualization.

  10. Risk of upper limb complaints due to computer use in older persons: a randomized study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jolles Jelle

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We studied whether the twelve-month use of a standard computer would induce complaints of upper limb pain or functional limitations in older novice computer users. Methods Participants between 64 and 76 of age were randomly assigned to an Intervention group (n = 62, whose members received a personal computer and fast Internet access at their homes, or a No Intervention control group (n = 61, whose members refrained from computer use during the twelve month study period. Results Difference scores between baseline and twelve months assessments on both complaint (SFS and functional health scales (SF-36 did not differ between groups (all p > .05. Conclusion Prolonged, self-paced use of a standard computer interface does not put older persons at a risk of upper limb complaints or reduce functional health in older adults.

  11. Visual Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamassian, Pascal

    2016-10-14

    Visual confidence refers to an observer's ability to judge the accuracy of her perceptual decisions. Even though confidence judgments have been recorded since the early days of psychophysics, only recently have they been recognized as essential for a deeper understanding of visual perception. The reluctance to study visual confidence may have come in part from obtaining convincing experimental evidence in favor of metacognitive abilities rather than just perceptual sensitivity. Some effort has thus been dedicated to offer different experimental paradigms to study visual confidence in humans and nonhuman animals. To understand the origins of confidence judgments, investigators have developed two competing frameworks. The approach based on signal decision theory is popular but fails to account for response times. In contrast, the approach based on accumulation of evidence models naturally includes the dynamics of perceptual decisions. These models can explain a range of results, including the apparently paradoxical dissociation between performance and confidence that is sometimes observed.

  12. Effect of mirror therapy on upper extremity motor function in stroke patients: a randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurbuz, Nigar; Afsar, Sevgi Ikbali; Ayaş, Sehri; Cosar, Sacide Nur Saracgil

    2016-09-01

    [Purpose] This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of mirror therapy combined with a conventional rehabilitation program on upper extremity motor and functional recovery in stroke patients. [Subjects and Methods] Thirty-one hemiplegic patients were included. The patients were randomly assigned to a mirror (n=16) or conventional group (n=15). The patients in both groups underwent conventional therapy for 4 weeks (60-120 minutes/day, 5 days/week). The mirror group received mirror therapy, consisting of periodic flexion and extension movements of the wrist and fingers on the non-paralyzed side. The patients in the conventional group performed the same exercises against the non-reflecting face of the mirror. The patients were evaluated at the beginning and end of the treatment by a blinded assessor using the Brunnstrom stage, Fugl-Meyer Assessment (FMA) upper extremity score, and the Functional Independence Measure (FIM) self-care score. [Results] There was an improvement in Brunnstrom stage and the FIM self-care score in both groups, but the post-treatment FMA score was significantly higher in the mirror therapy group than in the conventional treatment group. [Conclusion] Mirror therapy in addition to a conventional rehabilitation program was found to provide additional benefit in motor recovery of the upper extremity in stroke patients.

  13. Effect of mirror therapy on upper extremity motor function in stroke patients: a randomized controlled trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurbuz, Nigar; Afsar, Sevgi Ikbali; Ayaş, Sehri; Cosar, Sacide Nur Saracgil

    2016-01-01

    [Purpose] This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of mirror therapy combined with a conventional rehabilitation program on upper extremity motor and functional recovery in stroke patients. [Subjects and Methods] Thirty-one hemiplegic patients were included. The patients were randomly assigned to a mirror (n=16) or conventional group (n=15). The patients in both groups underwent conventional therapy for 4 weeks (60–120 minutes/day, 5 days/week). The mirror group received mirror therapy, consisting of periodic flexion and extension movements of the wrist and fingers on the non-paralyzed side. The patients in the conventional group performed the same exercises against the non-reflecting face of the mirror. The patients were evaluated at the beginning and end of the treatment by a blinded assessor using the Brunnstrom stage, Fugl-Meyer Assessment (FMA) upper extremity score, and the Functional Independence Measure (FIM) self-care score. [Results] There was an improvement in Brunnstrom stage and the FIM self-care score in both groups, but the post-treatment FMA score was significantly higher in the mirror therapy group than in the conventional treatment group. [Conclusion] Mirror therapy in addition to a conventional rehabilitation program was found to provide additional benefit in motor recovery of the upper extremity in stroke patients. PMID:27799679

  14. Virtual reality for upper extremity rehabilitation in early stroke: a pilot randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Chan Wai; Sien, Ng Yee; Ying, Low Ai; Chung, Stephanie Fook-Chong Man; Tan May Leng, Dawn

    2014-11-01

    To investigate the effect of virtual reality (VR) rehabilitation on upper extremity motor performance of patients with early stroke. Pilot randomized controlled trial. Rehabilitation wards. Twenty three adults with stroke (mean age (SD) = 58.35 (13.45) years and mean time since stroke (SD) = 16.30 (7.44) days). Participants were randomly assigned to VR group (n=11) or control group (n=12). VR group received nine 30 minutes upper extremity VR therapy in standing (five weekdays in two weeks) plus conventional therapy, which included physical and occupational therapy. Control group received only conventional therapy, which was comparable to total training time received by VR group (mean training hours (SD):VR = 17.07 (2.86); control = 15.50 (2.79)). The main outcome measure was the Fugl-Meyer Assessment (FMA). Secondary outcomes included Action Research Arm Test, Motor Activity Log and Functional Independence Measure. Results were taken at baseline, post intervention and 1-month post intervention. Participants' feedback and adverse effects were recorded. All participants improved in FMA scores (mean change (SD) = 11.65 (8.56), Ptherapy alone, this study demonstrates the feasibility of VR training in early stroke. © The Author(s) 2014.

  15. A Randomized Controlled Trial of Lorazepam to Reduce Liver Motion in Patients Receiving Upper Abdominal Radiation Therapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tsang, Derek S.; Voncken, Francine E.M.; Tse, Regina V. [Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, University Health Network, Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Toronto, Toronto (Canada); Sykes, Jenna [Department of Biostatistics, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, University Health Network, Toronto (Canada); Wong, Rebecca K.S.; Dinniwell, Rob E.; Kim, John; Ringash, Jolie; Brierley, James D.; Cummings, Bernard J.; Brade, Anthony [Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, University Health Network, Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Toronto, Toronto (Canada); Dawson, Laura A., E-mail: laura.dawson@rmp.uhn.on.ca [Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, University Health Network, Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Toronto, Toronto (Canada)

    2013-12-01

    Purpose: Reduction of respiratory motion is desirable to reduce the volume of normal tissues irradiated, to improve concordance of planned and delivered doses, and to improve image guided radiation therapy (IGRT). We hypothesized that pretreatment lorazepam would lead to a measurable reduction of liver motion. Methods and Materials: Thirty-three patients receiving upper abdominal IGRT were recruited to a double-blinded randomized controlled crossover trial. Patients were randomized to 1 of 2 study arms: arm 1 received lorazepam 2 mg by mouth on day 1, followed by placebo 4 to 8 days later; arm 2 received placebo on day 1, followed by lorazepam 4 to 8 days later. After tablet ingestion and daily radiation therapy, amplitude of liver motion was measured on both study days. The primary outcomes were reduction in craniocaudal (CC) liver motion using 4-dimensional kV cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) and the proportion of patients with liver motion ≤5 mm. Secondary endpoints included motion measured with cine magnetic resonance imaging and kV fluoroscopy. Results: Mean relative and absolute reduction in CC amplitude with lorazepam was 21% and 2.5 mm respectively (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1-3.9, P=.001), as assessed with CBCT. Reduction in CC amplitude to ≤5 mm residual liver motion was seen in 13% (95% CI 1%-25%) of patients receiving lorazepam (vs 10% receiving placebo, P=NS); 65% (95% CI 48%-81%) had reduction in residual CC liver motion to ≤10 mm (vs 52% with placebo, P=NS). Patients with large respiratory movement and patients who took lorazepam ≥60 minutes before imaging had greater reductions in liver CC motion. Mean reductions in liver CC amplitude on magnetic resonance imaging and fluoroscopy were nonsignificant. Conclusions: Lorazepam reduces liver motion in the CC direction; however, average magnitude of reduction is small, and most patients have residual motion >5 mm.

  16. Upper tails of self-intersection local times of random walks: survey of proof techniques

    CERN Document Server

    König, Wolfgang

    2010-01-01

    The asymptotics of the probability that the self-intersection local time of a random walk on $\\Z^d$ exceeds its expectation by a large amount is a fascinating subject because of its relation to some models from Statistical Mechanics, to large-deviation theory and variational analysis and because of the variety of the effects that can be observed. However, the proof of the upper bound is notoriously difficult and requires various sophisticated techniques. We survey some heuristics and some recently elaborated techniques and results. This is an extended summary of a talk held on the CIRM-conference on {\\it Excess self-intersection local times, and related topics} in Luminy, 6-10 Dec., 2010.

  17. Randomized trial of a robotic assistive device for the upper extremity during early inpatient stroke rehabilitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masiero, Stefano; Armani, Mario; Ferlini, Gregorio; Rosati, Giulio; Rossi, Aldo

    2014-05-01

    A recent Cochrane Review showed that early robotic training of the upper limb in stroke survivors can be more effective than other interventions when improving activities of daily living involving the arm function is the aim of therapy. We tested for efficacy of the study a protocol which involved the use of the NeReBot therapy in partial substitution of standard upper limb rehabilitation in post-acute stroke patients. In this dose-matched, randomized controlled clinical trial, 34 hemiparetic participants with movement against gravity in shoulder, elbow, and wrist muscle groups were enrolled within 15 days of the onset of stroke. All participants received a total daily rehabilitation treatment for 120 minutes, 5 days per week for 5 weeks. The control group received standard therapy for the upper limb. The experimental group received standard therapy (65% of exercise time) associated with robotic training (35% of exercise time). Muscle tone (Modified Ashworth Scale), strength (Medical Research Council), and synergism (Fugl-Meyer motor scores) were measured at impairment level, whereas dexterity (Box and Block Test and Frenchay Arm Test) and activities of daily living (Functional Independence Measure) were measured at activity level. All assessments were performed at baseline, at the end of therapy (time T1), at 3 months (time T2), and at 7 months (time T3) after entry. All between-group analyses were tested using nonparametric test with Bonferroni's adjustments for multiple testing. No significant between-group differences were found with respect to demographic characteristics, motor, dexterity, and ADLs at baseline, postintervention (T1) and at follow-up (T2 and T3). The robot therapy by NeReBot did not lead to better outcomes compared with conventional inpatient rehabilitation.

  18. Treatment of Upper Respiratory Tract Infections in Primary Care: A Randomized Study Using Aromatic Herbs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eran Ben-Arye

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This study is a prospective randomized double-blind controlled trial whose aim was to investigate the clinical effects of aromatic essential oils in patients with upper respiratory tract infections. The trial was conducted in six primary care clinics in northern Israel. A spray containing aromatic essential oils of five plants (Eucalyptus citriodora, Eucalyptus globulus, Mentha piperita, Origanum syriacum, and Rosmarinus officinalisas applied 5 times a day for 3 days and compared with a placebo spray. The main outcome measure was patient assessment of the change in severity of the most debilitating symptom (sore throat, hoarseness or cough. Sixty patients participated in the study (26 in the study group and 34 in the control group. Intention-to-treat analysis showed that 20 minutes following the spray use, participants in the study group reported a greater improvement in symptom severity compared to participants in the placebo group (=.019. There was no difference in symptom severity between the two groups after 3 days of treatment (=.042. In conclusion, spray application of five aromatic plants reported in this study brings about significant and immediate improvement in symptoms of upper respiratory ailment. This effect is not significant after 3 days of treatment.

  19. On Confidence Region of Nonlinear Models with Random Effects%非线性随机效应模型的置信域

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    宗序平; 孟国明; 韦博成

    2000-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a differential geometric framework for nonlinear models with random effects. Our framework may be regarded as an extension of that presented by Bates & watts for nonlinear regression models. As an application, we use this geometric framework to derive three kinds of improved approximate confidence regions for parameter and parameter subset of fixed effect in terms of curvatures.%本文对非线性随机效应模型,建立了微分几何框架,推广了Bates & Wates关于非线性模型几何结构.在吡基础上,我们导出了关于固定效应参数和子集参数的置信域的曲率表示,这些结果是Bates and Wates(1980),Hamilton(1986)与Wei(1994)等的推广.

  20. Improved Balance Confidence and Stability for Elderly After 6 Weeks of a Multimodal Self-Administered Balance-Enhancing Exercise Program: A Randomized Single Arm Crossover Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hafström, Anna; Malmström, Eva-Maj; Terdèn, Josefine; Fransson, Per-Anders; Magnusson, Måns

    2016-01-01

    Objective: To develop and assess the efficacy of a multimodal balance-enhancing exercise program (BEEP) designed to be regularly self-administered by community-dwelling elderly. The program aims to promote sensory reweighting, facilitate motor control, improve gaze stabilization, and stimulate continuous improvement by being constantly challenging. Method: Forty participants aged 60 to 80 years performed 6 weeks of BEEP training, on average for 16 min four times weekly, in a randomized one-arm crossover design. Results: One-leg standing time improved 32% with eyes open (EO), 206% with eyes closed (EC) on solid surface, and 54% EO on compliant surface (p balance improvements when perturbed on solid and compliant surfaces with EO and EC (p ≤ .033). Walking, step stool, and Timed Up and Go speeds increased (p ≤ .001), as did scores in Berg Balance and balance confidence scales (p ≤ .018). Discussion: Multimodal balance exercises offer an efficient, cost-effective way to improve balance control and confidence in elderly.

  1. A Randomized, Controlled Trial of Mirror Therapy for Upper Extremity Phantom Limb Pain in Male Amputees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sacha B. Finn

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available ObjectivePhantom limb pain (PLP is prevalent in patients post-amputation and is difficult to treat. We assessed the efficacy of mirror therapy in relieving PLP in unilateral, upper extremity male amputees.MethodsFifteen participants from Walter Reed and Brooke Army Medical Centers were randomly assigned to one of two groups: mirror therapy (n = 9 or control (n = 6, covered mirror or mental visualization therapy. Participants were asked to perform 15 min of their assigned therapy daily for 5 days/week for 4 weeks. The primary outcome was pain as measured using a 100-mm Visual Analog Scale.ResultsSubjects in the mirror therapy group had a significant decrease in pain scores, from a mean of 44.1 (SD = 17.0 to 27.5 (SD = 17.2 mm (p = 0.002. In addition, there was a significant decrease in daily time experiencing pain, from a mean of 1,022 (SD = 673 to 448 (SD = 565 minutes (p = 0.003. By contrast, the control group had neither diminished pain (p = 0.65 nor decreased overall time experiencing pain (p = 0.49. A pain decrement response seen by the 10th treatment session was predictive of final efficacy.ConclusionThese results confirm that mirror therapy is an effective therapy for PLP in unilateral, upper extremity male amputees, reducing both severity and duration of daily episodes.RegistrationNCT0030144 ClinicalTrials.gov.

  2. A Randomized, Controlled Trial of Mirror Therapy for Upper Extremity Phantom Limb Pain in Male Amputees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finn, Sacha B; Perry, Briana N; Clasing, Jay E; Walters, Lisa S; Jarzombek, Sandra L; Curran, Sean; Rouhanian, Minoo; Keszler, Mary S; Hussey-Andersen, Lindsay K; Weeks, Sharon R; Pasquina, Paul F; Tsao, Jack W

    2017-01-01

    Phantom limb pain (PLP) is prevalent in patients post-amputation and is difficult to treat. We assessed the efficacy of mirror therapy in relieving PLP in unilateral, upper extremity male amputees. Fifteen participants from Walter Reed and Brooke Army Medical Centers were randomly assigned to one of two groups: mirror therapy (n = 9) or control (n = 6, covered mirror or mental visualization therapy). Participants were asked to perform 15 min of their assigned therapy daily for 5 days/week for 4 weeks. The primary outcome was pain as measured using a 100-mm Visual Analog Scale. Subjects in the mirror therapy group had a significant decrease in pain scores, from a mean of 44.1 (SD = 17.0) to 27.5 (SD = 17.2) mm (p = 0.002). In addition, there was a significant decrease in daily time experiencing pain, from a mean of 1,022 (SD = 673) to 448 (SD = 565) minutes (p = 0.003). By contrast, the control group had neither diminished pain (p = 0.65) nor decreased overall time experiencing pain (p = 0.49). A pain decrement response seen by the 10th treatment session was predictive of final efficacy. These results confirm that mirror therapy is an effective therapy for PLP in unilateral, upper extremity male amputees, reducing both severity and duration of daily episodes. NCT0030144 ClinicalTrials.gov.

  3. Lidocaine lozenges for pharyngeal anesthesia during upper gastrointestinal endoscopy: A randomized controlled trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Avinash Supe

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background and Objectives: A novel lozenge formulation with advantages of ease of drug administration, palatable taste and improved patient compliance could be the preferred mode of topical pharyngeal anesthesia during upper gastrointestinal endoscopy (UGE. This randomized, open-label, active-controlled study was conducted to evaluate the efficacy and safety of lidocaine lozenges versus lidocaine spray in the diagnostic gastroduodenal endoscopy in Indian patients. Subjects and Methods: Two hundred and forty-seven patients of either sex (18-80 years undergoing diagnostic gastroduodenal endoscopy were randomized either to; lidocaine lozenge 200 mg or lidocaine spray 200 mg to be applied as a single dose before gastroduodenal endoscopy. Ease of procedure, level of gag reflex, ease of application of the local anesthetic, and investigators global assessment were the primary efficacy endpoints. Need for rescue medication and patient′s global assessment were secondary efficacy endpoints. The incidence of any adverse event was the safety endpoint. Between groups, comparison was done by using appropriate statistical test. Results: Investigator reported significantly lesser procedural difficulty (P = 0.0007 and suppressed gag reflex (P < 0.0001 during UGE with lidocaine lozenge compared to spray. Ease of application of local anesthetic was reported easy in significantly more patients as compared with lidocaine spray (P = 0.001. Global assessment by patient and physician was favorable toward lozenge. Incidences of adverse events were similar in both the groups. Conclusions: The study suggests that lidocaine lozenges are an easier way of applying local oropharyngeal anesthesia, produces better suppression of gag reflex and makes the procedure easier when compared with lidocaine spray.

  4. Restrictive vs liberal transfusion for upper gastrointestinal bleeding: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Juan; Bao, Yong-Xin; Bai, Ming; Zhang, Yong-Guo; Xu, Wen-Da; Qi, Xing-Shun

    2013-10-28

    To compare the outcome of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) between patients receiving restrictive and liberal transfusion. PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library databases were employed to identify all relevant randomized controlled trials regarding the outcome of UGIB after restrictive or liberal transfusion. Primary outcomes were death and rebleeding. Secondary outcomes were length of hospitalization, amount of blood transfused, and hematocrit and hemoglobin at discharge or after expansion. Overall, 4 papers were included in this meta-analysis. The incidence of death was significantly lower in patients receiving restrictive transfusion than those receiving liberal transfusion (OR: 0.52, 95%CI: 0.31-0.87, P = 0.01). The incidence of rebleeding was lower in patients receiving restrictive transfusion than those receiving liberal transfusion, but this difference did not reach any statistical significance (OR: 0.26, 95%CI: 0.03-2.10, P = 0.21). Compared with those receiving liberal transfusion, patients receiving restrictive transfusion had a significantly shorter length of hospitalization (standard mean difference: -0.17, 95%CI: -0.30--0.04, P = 0.009) and a significantly smaller amount of blood transfused (standard mean difference: -0.74, 95%CI: -1.15--0.32, P = 0.0005) with a lower hematocrit and hemoglobin level at discharge or after expansion. Restrictive transfusion should be employed in patients with UGIB.

  5. The effect of inhaled menthol on upper airway resistance in humans: A randomized controlled crossover study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Effie J Pereira

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Menthol (l-menthol is a naturally-occurring cold receptor agonist commonly used to provide symptomatic relief for upper airway congestion. Menthol can also reduce the sensation of dyspnea. It is unclear whether the physiological action of menthol in dyspnea reduction is through its cold receptor agonist effect or whether associated mechanical changes occur in the upper airway.

  6. The Relative Importance of Random Error and Observation Frequency in Detecting Trends in Upper Tropospheric Water Vapor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whiteman, David N.; Vermeesch, Kevin C.; Oman, Luke D.; Weatherhead, Elizabeth C.

    2011-01-01

    Recent published work assessed the amount of time to detect trends in atmospheric water vapor over the coming century. We address the same question and conclude that under the most optimistic scenarios and assuming perfect data (i.e., observations with no measurement uncertainty) the time to detect trends will be at least 12 years at approximately 200 hPa in the upper troposphere. Our times to detect trends are therefore shorter than those recently reported and this difference is affected by data sources used, method of processing the data, geographic location and pressure level in the atmosphere where the analyses were performed. We then consider the question of how instrumental uncertainty plays into the assessment of time to detect trends. We conclude that due to the high natural variability in atmospheric water vapor, the amount of time to detect trends in the upper troposphere is relatively insensitive to instrumental random uncertainty and that it is much more important to increase the frequency of measurement than to decrease the random error in the measurement. This is put in the context of international networks such as the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper-Air Network (GRUAN) and the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) that are tasked with developing time series of climate quality water vapor data.

  7. Reinforced Feedback in Virtual Environment for Rehabilitation of Upper Extremity Dysfunction after Stroke: Preliminary Data from a Randomized Controlled Trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paweł Kiper

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. To study whether the reinforced feedback in virtual environment (RFVE is more effective than traditional rehabilitation (TR for the treatment of upper limb motor function after stroke, regardless of stroke etiology (i.e., ischemic, hemorrhagic. Design. Randomized controlled trial. Participants. Forty-four patients affected by stroke. Intervention. The patients were randomized into two groups: RFVE (N=23 and TR (N=21, and stratified according to stroke etiology. The RFVE treatment consisted of multidirectional exercises providing augmented feedback provided by virtual reality, while in the TR treatment the same exercises were provided without augmented feedbacks. Outcome Measures. Fugl-Meyer upper extremity scale (F-M UE, Functional Independence Measure scale (FIM, and kinematics parameters (speed, time, and peak. Results. The F-M UE (P=0.030, FIM (P=0.021, time (P=0.008, and peak (P=0.018, were significantly higher in the RFVE group after treatment, but not speed (P=0.140. The patients affected by hemorrhagic stroke significantly improved FIM (P=0.031, time (P=0.011, and peak (P=0.020 after treatment, whereas the patients affected by ischemic stroke improved significantly only speed (P=0.005 when treated by RFVE. Conclusion. These results indicated that some poststroke patients may benefit from RFVE program for the recovery of upper limb motor function. This trial is registered with NCT01955291.

  8. The addition of upper cervical manipulative therapy in the treatment of patients with fibromyalgia: a randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moustafa, Ibrahim M; Diab, Aliaa A

    2015-07-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the immediate and long-term effects of a one-year multimodal program, with the addition of upper cervical manipulative therapy, on fibromyalgia management outcomes in addition to three-dimensional (3D) postural measures. This randomized clinical trial with one-year follow-up was completed at the research laboratory of our university. A total of 120 (52 female) patients with fibromyalgia syndrome (FMS) and definite C1-2 joint dysfunction were randomly assigned to the control or an experimental group. Both groups received a multimodal program; additionally, the experimental group received upper cervical manipulative therapy. Primary outcomes were the Fibromyalgia Impact Questionnaire (FIQ), whereas secondary outcomes included Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS), algometric score, Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI), Beck Anxiety Inventory (BAI), Beck Depression Inventory (BDI), and 3D postural measures. Measures were assessed at three time intervals: baseline, 12 weeks, and 1 year after the 12-week follow-up. The general linear model with repeated measures indicated a significant group × time effect in favor of the experimental group on the measures of 3D postural parameters (P < .0005), FIQ (P < .0005), PCS (P < .0005), algometric score (F = P < .0005), PSQI (P < .0005), BAI (P < .0005), and BDI (P < .0005). The addition of the upper cervical manipulative therapy to a multimodal program is beneficial in treating patients with FMS.

  9. Arnica Ointment 10% Does Not Improve Upper Blepharoplasty Outcome : A Randomized, Placebo-Controlled Trial

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Exsel, Denise C. E.; Pool, Shariselle M. W.; van Uchelen, Jeroen H.; Edens, Mireille A.; van der Lei, Berend; Melenhorst, Wynand B. W. H.

    2016-01-01

    Background: It has been suggested that arnica can reduce postoperative edema and ecchymosis associated with cosmetic surgical procedures and improve outcome. Despite a high incidence of arnica use among upper blepharoplasty patients, evidence to support its treatment effect is lacking. The authors p

  10. Arnica Ointment 10% Does Not Improve Upper Blepharoplasty Outcome : A Randomized, Placebo-Controlled Trial

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Exsel, Denise C E; Pool, Shariselle M W; van Uchelen, Jeroen H; Edens, Mireille A; van der Lei, Berend; Melenhorst, Wynand B W H

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: It has been suggested that arnica can reduce postoperative edema and ecchymosis associated with cosmetic surgical procedures and improve outcome. Despite a high incidence of arnica use among upper blepharoplasty patients, evidence to support its treatment effect is lacking. The authors p

  11. [Interactive dynamic scalp acupuncture combined with occupational therapy for upper limb motor impairment in stroke: a randomized controlled trial].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jun; Pei, Jian; Cui, Xiao; Sun, Kexing; Ni, Huanhuan; Zhou, Cuixia; Wu, Ji; Huang, Mei; Ji, Li

    2015-10-01

    To compare the clinical efficacy on upper limb motor impairment in stroke between the interactive dynamic scalp acupuncture therapy and the traditional scalp acupuncture therapy. The randomized controlled trial and MINIMIZE layering randomization software were adopted. Seventy patients of upper limb with III to V grade in Brunnstrom scale after stroke were randomized into an interactive dynamic scalp acupuncture group and a traditional scalp acupuncture group, 35 cases in each one. In the interactive dynamic scalp acupuncture group, the middle 2/5 of Dingnieqianxiexian (anterior oblique line of vertex-temporal), the middle 2/5 of Dingniehouxiexian (posterior oblique line of vertex-temporal) and Dingpangerxian (lateral line 2 of vertex) on the affected side were selected as the stimulation areas. Additionally, the rehabilitation training was applied during scalp acupuncture treatment. In the traditional scalp acupuncture group, the scalp stimulation areas were same as the interactive dynamic scalp acupuncture group. But the rehabilitation training was applied separately. The rehabilitation training was applied in the morning and the scalp acupuncture was done in the afternoon. The results in Fugl-Meyer for the upper limb motor function (U-FMA), the Wolf motor function measure scale (WM- FT) and the modified Barthel index in the two groups were compared between the two groups before treatment and in 1 and 2 months of treatment, respectively. After treatment, the U-FMA score, WMFT score and the score of the modified Barthel index were all apparently improved as compared with those before treatment (all P acupuncture group was better than that in the traditional scalp acupuncture group (P acupuncture group were improved apparently as compared with those in the traditional scalp acupuncture group (P acupuncture group were not different significantly as compared with those in the traditional scalp acupuncture group (both P > 0.05). For the patients of IV to V grade in

  12. Upper Limb Robot-Assisted Therapy in Cerebral Palsy: A Single-Blind Randomized Controlled Trial

    OpenAIRE

    Gilliaux, Maxime; Renders, Anne; Dispa, Delphine; Holvoet, Dominique; Sapin, Julien; Dehez, Bruno; Detrembleur, Christine; LEJEUNE, Thierry; Stoquart, Gaëtan

    2015-01-01

    Background. Several pilot studies have evoked interest in robot-assisted therapy (RAT) in children with cerebral palsy (CP). Objective. To assess the effectiveness of RAT in children with CP through a single-blind randomized controlled trial. Patients and Methods. Sixteen children with CP were randomized into 2 groups. Eight children performed 5 conventional therapy sessions per week over 8 weeks (control group). Eight children completed 3 conventional therapy sessions and 2 robot-assisted se...

  13. Depinning transition of a driven interface in the random-field Ising model around the upper critical dimension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roters, L; Lübeck, S; Usadel, K D

    2002-12-01

    We investigate the depinning transition for driven interfaces in the random-field Ising model for various dimensions. We consider the order parameter as a function of the control parameter (driving field) and examine the effect of thermal fluctuations. Although thermal fluctuations drive the system away from criticality, the order parameter obeys a certain scaling law for sufficiently low temperatures and the corresponding exponents are determined. Our results suggest that the so-called upper critical dimension of the depinning transition is five and that the systems belongs to the universality class of the quenched Edward-Wilkinson equation.

  14. The Effect of Eyelid Cooling on Pain, Edema, Erythema, and Hematoma after Upper Blepharoplasty : A Randomized, Controlled, Observer-Blinded Evaluation Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pool, Shariselle M. W.; van Exsel, Denise C. E.; Melenhorst, Wynand B. W. H.; Cromheecke, Michel; van der Lei, Berend

    2015-01-01

    Background: The purpose of this study was to investigate the efficacy of eyelid cooling to reduce postoperative pain, edema, erythema, and hematoma after upper blepharoplasty. Methods: After bilateral upper blepharoplasty in 38 consecutive patients, one eyelid per patient was randomized for cooling

  15. Mirror therapy enhances motor performance in the paretic upper limb after stroke: a pilot randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samuelkamaleshkumar, Selvaraj; Reethajanetsureka, Stephen; Pauljebaraj, Paul; Benshamir, Bright; Padankatti, Sanjeev Manasseh; David, Judy Ann

    2014-11-01

    To investigate the effectiveness of mirror therapy (MT) combined with bilateral arm training and graded activities to improve motor performance in the paretic upper limb after stroke. Randomized, controlled, assessor-blinded study. Inpatient stroke rehabilitation center of a tertiary care teaching hospital. Patients with first-time ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke (N=20), confined to the territory of the middle cerebral artery, occurring rehabilitation program including conventional occupational therapy, physical therapy, and speech therapy for 5 d/wk, 6 h/d, over 3 weeks. The participants in the MT group received 1 hour of MT in addition to the conventional stroke rehabilitation. The Upper Extremity Fugl-Meyer Assessment for motor recovery, Brunnstrom stages of motor recovery for the arm and hand, Box and Block Test for gross manual hand dexterity, and modified Ashworth scale to assess the spasticity. After 3 weeks of MT, mean change scores were significantly greater in the MT group than in the control group for the Fugl-Meyer Assessment (P=.008), Brunnstrom stages of motor recovery for the arm (P=.003) and hand (P=.003), and the Box and Block Test (P=.022). No significant difference was found between the groups for modified Ashworth scale (P=.647). MT when combined with bilateral arm training and graded activities was effective in improving motor performance of the paretic upper limb after stroke compared with conventional therapy without MT. Copyright © 2014 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Randomized, multicenter, comparative study of NEURO versus CIMT in poststroke patients with upper limb hemiparesis: the NEURO-VERIFY Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abo, Masahiro; Kakuda, Wataru; Momosaki, Ryo; Harashima, Hiroaki; Kojima, Miki; Watanabe, Shigeto; Sato, Toshihiro; Yokoi, Aki; Umemori, Takuma; Sasanuma, Jinichi

    2014-07-01

    Many poststroke patients suffer functional motor limitation of the affected upper limb, which is associated with diminished health-related quality of life. The aim of this study is to conduct a randomized, multicenter, comparative study of low-frequency repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation combined with intensive occupational therapy, NEURO (NovEl intervention Using Repetitive TMS and intensive Occupational therapy) versus constraint-induced movement therapy in poststroke patients with upper limb hemiparesis. In this randomized controlled study of NEURO and constraint-induced movement therapy, 66 poststroke patients with upper limb hemiparesis were randomly assigned at 2:1 ratio to low-frequency repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation plus occupational therapy (NEURO group) or constraint-induced movement therapy (constraint-induced movement therapy group) for 15 days. Fugl-Meyer Assessment and Wolf Motor Function Test and Functional Ability Score of Wolf Motor Function Test were used for assessment. No differences in patients' characteristics were found between the two groups at baseline. The Fugl-Meyer Assessment score was significantly higher in both groups after the 15-day treatment compared with the baseline. Changes in Fugl-Meyer Assessment scores and Functional Ability Score of Wolf Motor Function Test were significantly higher in the NEURO group than in the constraint-induced movement therapy group, whereas the decrease in the Wolf Motor Function Test log performance time was comparable between the two groups (changes in Fugl-Meyer Assessment score, NEURO: 5·39 ± 4·28, constraint-induced movement therapy: 3·09 ± 4·50 points; mean ± standard error of the mean; P < 0·05) (changes in Functional Ability Score of Wolf Motor Function Test, NEURO: 3·98 ± 2·99, constraint-induced movement therapy: 2·09 ± 2·96 points; P < 0·05). The results of the 15-day rehabilitative protocol showed the superiority of NEURO

  17. Comparison of Two Methods for Upper Lid Fascia Lata Sling in Congenital Blepharoptosis: a Randomized Clinical Trial

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    Abbas Bagheri

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available

    PURPOSE: To compare the results of two different methods of upper lid sling with autogenous fascia lata in the treatment of congenital ptosis. METHODS: In a randomized clinical trial, patients with congenital upper lid ptosis and poor levator function (< 4mm were randomly assigned to two different methods of upper lid sling: group A, bitriangular fascia sling (modified Crawford method and group B, monotriangular fascia sling (modified Fox method. RESULTS:  This study included 30 upper eyelids (15 eyelids in each surgical group of 19 patients (8 unilateral and 11 bilateral cases with congenital ptosis. Mean increase in eyelid fissure height was 2.7±2.3 mm in group A and 3.4±2.2 mm in group B, respectively. Change in eyelid fissure in both groups was significant (P < 0.001, paired t-test but intergroup difference was not (P=0.4, independent sample t-test. Early complications such as corneal epithelial defects and entropion, and late complications such as undercorrection were comparable in the two groups. No patient experienced recurrent ptosis requiring reoperation in either group. CONCLUSION:  The monotriangular method of upper lid fascia sling can be used instead of the more popular bitriangular method. Advantages include less need for fascial tissue, less periocular scar formation and a shorter period of anesthesia.

  18. Confidence Estimation in Structured Prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Mejer, Avihai

    2011-01-01

    Structured classification tasks such as sequence labeling and dependency parsing have seen much interest by the Natural Language Processing and the machine learning communities. Several online learning algorithms were adapted for structured tasks such as Perceptron, Passive- Aggressive and the recently introduced Confidence-Weighted learning . These online algorithms are easy to implement, fast to train and yield state-of-the-art performance. However, unlike probabilistic models like Hidden Markov Model and Conditional random fields, these methods generate models that output merely a prediction with no additional information regarding confidence in the correctness of the output. In this work we fill the gap proposing few alternatives to compute the confidence in the output of non-probabilistic algorithms.We show how to compute confidence estimates in the prediction such that the confidence reflects the probability that the word is labeled correctly. We then show how to use our methods to detect mislabeled wor...

  19. Propofol versus midazolam for upper gastrointestinal endoscopy in cirrhotic patients: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hsiao-Chien Tsai

    Full Text Available Sedation during gastrointestinal endoscopy is often achieved using propofol or midazolam in general population. However, impaired protein synthesis, altered drug metabolism, and compromised hepatic blood flow in patients with liver cirrhosis might affect the pharmacokinetics of sedatives, placing cirrhotic patients undergoing endoscopy at a greater risk of adverse events. The objective of this study was to assess comparative efficacies and safety of propofol and midazolam in cirrhotic patients undergoing endoscopy.Randomized, controlled trials comparing propofol with midazolam in cirrhotic patients undergoing gastrointestinal endoscopy were selected. We performed the meta-analysis, using a random-effect model, the Review Manager, Version 5.2, statistical software package (Cochrane Collaboration, Oxford, UK according to the PRISMA guidelines.Five studies between 2003 and 2012, including 433 patients, were included. Propofol provided a shorter time to sedation (weight mean difference: -2.76 min, 95% confidence interval: -3.00 to -2.51 and a shorter recovery time (weight mean difference -6.17 min, 95% confidence interval: -6.81 to -5.54 than midazolam did. No intergroup difference in the incidence of hypotension, bradycardia, or hypoxemia was observed. Midazolam was associated with the deterioration of psychometric scores for a longer period than propofol.This meta-analysis suggests that Propofol sedation for endoscopy provides more rapid sedation and recovery than midazolam does. The risk of sedation-related side effects for propofol does not differ significantly from that of midazolam. The efficacy of propofol in cirrhotic patients undergoing endoscopy is superior to those of midazolam.

  20. Propofol versus Midazolam for Upper Gastrointestinal Endoscopy in Cirrhotic Patients: A Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Hsiao-Chien; Lin, Yu-Cih; Ko, Ching-Lung; Lou, Horng-Yuan; Chen, Ta-Liang; Tam, Ka-Wai; Chen, Chien-Yu

    2015-01-01

    Background Sedation during gastrointestinal endoscopy is often achieved using propofol or midazolam in general population. However, impaired protein synthesis, altered drug metabolism, and compromised hepatic blood flow in patients with liver cirrhosis might affect the pharmacokinetics of sedatives, placing cirrhotic patients undergoing endoscopy at a greater risk of adverse events. The objective of this study was to assess comparative efficacies and safety of propofol and midazolam in cirrhotic patients undergoing endoscopy. Methods Randomized, controlled trials comparing propofol with midazolam in cirrhotic patients undergoing gastrointestinal endoscopy were selected. We performed the meta-analysis, using a random-effect model, the Review Manager, Version 5.2, statistical software package (Cochrane Collaboration, Oxford, UK) according to the PRISMA guidelines. Results Five studies between 2003 and 2012, including 433 patients, were included. Propofol provided a shorter time to sedation (weight mean difference: -2.76 min, 95% confidence interval: -3.00 to -2.51) and a shorter recovery time (weight mean difference -6.17 min, 95% confidence interval: -6.81 to -5.54) than midazolam did. No intergroup difference in the incidence of hypotension, bradycardia, or hypoxemia was observed. Midazolam was associated with the deterioration of psychometric scores for a longer period than propofol. Conclusion This meta-analysis suggests that Propofol sedation for endoscopy provides more rapid sedation and recovery than midazolam does. The risk of sedation-related side effects for propofol does not differ significantly from that of midazolam. The efficacy of propofol in cirrhotic patients undergoing endoscopy is superior to those of midazolam. PMID:25646815

  1. ArmAssist Robotic System versus Matched Conventional Therapy for Poststroke Upper Limb Rehabilitation: A Randomized Clinical Trial

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    Tijana J. Dimkić Tomić

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The ArmAssist is a simple low-cost robotic system for upper limb motor training that combines known benefits of repetitive task-oriented training, greater intensity of practice, and less dependence on therapist assistance. The aim of this preliminary study was to compare the efficacy of ArmAssist (AA robotic training against matched conventional arm training in subacute stroke subjects with moderate-to-severe upper limb impairment. Twenty-six subjects were enrolled within 3 months of stroke and randomly assigned to the AA group or Control group (n=13 each. Both groups were trained 5 days per week for 3 weeks. The primary outcome measure was Fugl-Meyer Assessment-Upper Extremity (FMA-UE motor score, and the secondary outcomes were Wolf Motor Function Test-Functional Ability Scale (WMFT-FAS and Barthel index (BI. The AA group, in comparison to the Control group, showed significantly greater increases in FMA-UE score (18.0 ± 9.4 versus 7.5 ± 5.5, p=0.002 and WMFT-FAS score (14.1 ± 7.9 versus 6.7 ± 7.8, p=0.025 after 3 weeks of treatment, whereas the increase in BI was not significant (21.2 ± 24.8 versus 13.1 ± 10.7, p=0.292. There were no adverse events. We conclude that arm training using the AA robotic device is safe and able to reduce motor deficits more effectively than matched conventional arm training in subacute phase of stroke. The study has been registered at the ClinicalTrials.gov, ID: NCT02729649.

  2. Effect of upper extremity proprioceptive neuromuscular facilitation combined with elastic resistance bands on respiratory muscle strength: a randomized controlled trial

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    Guilherme P. T. Areas

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Elastic resistance bands (ERB combined with proprioceptive neuromuscular facilitation (PNF are often used in resistance muscle training programs, which have potential effects on peripheral muscle strength. However, the effects of the combination of ERB and PNF on respiratory muscle strength warrant further investigation. OBJECTIVES: The assessment of the effects of PNF combined with ERB on respiratory muscle strength. METHOD: Twenty healthy, right-handed females were included. Subjects were randomized to either the resistance training program group (TG, n=10 or the control group (CG, n=10. Maximal expiratory pressure (MEP and inspiratory pressure (MIP were measured before and after four weeks of an upper extremity resistance training program. The training protocol consisted of upper extremity PNF combined with ERB, with resistance selected from 1 repetition maximum protocol. RESULTS: PNF combined with ERB showed significant increases in MIP and MEP (p<0.05. In addition, there were significant differences between the TG and CG regarding ∆MIP (p=0.01 and ∆MEP (p=0.04. CONCLUSIONS: PNF combined with ERB can have a positive impact on respiratory muscle strength. These results may be useful with respect to cardiopulmonary chronic diseases that are associated with reduced respiratory muscle strength.

  3. Contralaterally Controlled Functional Electrical Stimulation for Upper Extremity Hemiplegia: An Early-Phase Randomized Clinical Trial in Subacute Stroke Patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knutson, Jayme S.; Harley, Mary Y.; Hisel, Terri Z.; Hogan, Shannon D.; Maloney, Margaret M.; Chae, John

    2012-01-01

    Background Contralaterally controlled functional electrical stimulation (CCFES) is an experimental treatment intended to improve hand function after stroke. Objective To compare the effects of 6 weeks of CCFES vs. cyclic neuromuscular electrical stimulation (NMES) on upper extremity impairment and activity limitation in patients ≤ 6 months poststroke. Methods Twenty-one participants were randomized to CCFES or cyclic NMES. Treatment for both groups consisted of daily stimulation-assisted repetitive hand-opening exercise at home plus twice-weekly lab sessions of functional task practice. Assessments were made at pretreatment and posttreatment and at 1 month and 3 months posttreatment. They included maximum voluntary finger extension angle, finger movement tracking error, upper extremity Fugl-Meyer score, Box and Blocks test, and Arm Motor Abilities Test. Treatment effects were estimated using a 2-factor repeated measures analysis of variance with the value of the baseline measure as a covariate. Results Seventeen patients completed the treatment phase (9 CCFES, 8 cyclic NMES). At all post-treatment time points, CCFES produced larger improvements than cyclic NMES on every outcome measure. Maximum voluntary finger extension showed the largest treatment effect, with a mean group difference across the posttreatment time points of 28° more finger extension for CCFES. Conclusions The results favor CCFES over cyclic NMES though the small sample size limits the statistical power of the study. The effect size estimates from this study will be used to power a larger trial. PMID:21875892

  4. Randomized trial of observation and execution of upper extremity actions versus action alone in children with unilateral cerebral palsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sgandurra, Giuseppina; Ferrari, Adriano; Cossu, Giuseppe; Guzzetta, Andrea; Fogassi, Leonardo; Cioni, Giovanni

    2013-01-01

    The properties of the mirror neuron system suggest a new type of upper limb (UL) rehabilitation in children with unilateral cerebral palsy (UCP), based on observation of action therapy followed by execution of a variety of observed movements (AOT). We tested the effects of AOT in the Upper Limb Children Action Observation Training (UP-CAT) trial. In a randomized, evaluator-blinded, block-designed trial, 24 UCP children with mild to moderate hand impairment were assigned to 2 groups. The experimental group observed, 1 hour per day for 3 consecutive weeks, video sequences of unimanual or bimanual goal-directed actions and subsequently executed observed actions with the hemiparetic UL or both ULs. The control group performed the same actions in the same order as the experimental sample, but had watched computer games. The Assisting Hand Assessment (AHA) scale was the primary outcome measure; the Melbourne assessment and ABILHAND-Kids were secondary ones. Outcomes were assessed at 1 week (T1), 8 weeks (T2), and 24 weeks (T3) after the end of the training. The experimental group improved more (P = .008) in score changes for the AHA at the primary endpoints T1 (P = .008), T2 (P = .019), and T3 (P = .049). No between-group significant changes were found for ABILHAND-Kids or Melbourne assessment. UP-CAT improved daily UL activities in UCP children, suggesting a new rehabilitation approach based on a neurophysiological model of motor learning.

  5. A randomized trial of upper limb botulimun toxin versus placebo injection, combined with physiotherapy, in children with hemiplegia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrari, Adriano; Maoret, Anna Rosa; Muzzini, Simonetta; Alboresi, Silvia; Lombardi, Francesco; Sgandurra, Giuseppina; Paolicelli, Paola Bruna; Sicola, Elisa; Cioni, Giovanni

    2014-10-01

    The main goal of this study was to investigate the efficacy of Botulinum Toxin A (BoNT-A), combined with an individualized intensive physiotherapy/orthoses treatment, in improving upper limb activity and competence in daily activity in children with hemiplegia, and to compare its effectiveness with that of non-pharmacological instruments. It was a Randomized Clinical Trial of 27 children with spastic hemiplegic cerebral palsy, outpatients of two high speciality Centres for child rehabilitation. Each child was assigned by simple randomization to experimental group (BoNT-A) or control group (placebo). Assisting Hand Assessment (AHA) was chosen as primary outcome measure; other measures were selected according to ICF dimensions. Participants were assessed at baseline (T0), at T1, T2, T3 (1-3-6 months after injection, respectively). Every patient was given a specific physiotherapeutic treatment, consisting of individualized goal directed exercises, task oriented activities, daily stretching manoeuvres, functional and/or static orthoses. BoNT-A group showed a significant increase of AHA raw scores at T2, compared to control group (T2-T0: p=.025) and functional goals achievement (GAS) was also slightly better in the same group (p=.033). Other measures indicated some improvement in both groups, without significant intergroup differences. Children with intermediate severity of hand function at House scale for upper limb impairment seem to have a better benefit from BoNT-A protocol. BoNT-A was effective in improving manipulation in the activity domain, in association with individualized goal-directed physiotherapy and orthoses; the combined treatment is recommended. The study brings more evidence for the efficacy of a combined treatment botulinum toxin injection-physiotherapy-orthoses, and it gives some suggestions for candidate selection and individualized treatment.

  6. Effect of a Task-Oriented Rehabilitation Program on Upper Extremity Recovery Following Motor Stroke: The ICARE Randomized Clinical Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winstein, Carolee J; Wolf, Steven L; Dromerick, Alexander W; Lane, Christianne J; Nelsen, Monica A; Lewthwaite, Rebecca; Cen, Steven Yong; Azen, Stanley P

    2016-02-09

    Clinical trials suggest that higher doses of task-oriented training are superior to current clinical practice for patients with stroke with upper extremity motor deficits. To compare the efficacy of a structured, task-oriented motor training program vs usual and customary occupational therapy (UCC) during stroke rehabilitation. Phase 3, pragmatic, single-blind randomized trial among 361 participants with moderate motor impairment recruited from 7 US hospitals over 44 months, treated in the outpatient setting from June 2009 to March 2014. Structured, task-oriented upper extremity training (Accelerated Skill Acquisition Program [ASAP]; n = 119); dose-equivalent occupational therapy (DEUCC; n = 120); or monitoring-only occupational therapy (UCC; n = 122). The DEUCC group was prescribed 30 one-hour sessions over 10 weeks; the UCC group was only monitored, without specification of dose. The primary outcome was 12-month change in log-transformed Wolf Motor Function Test time score (WMFT, consisting of a mean of 15 timed arm movements and hand dexterity tasks). Secondary outcomes were change in WMFT time score (minimal clinically important difference [MCID] = 19 seconds) and proportion of patients improving ≥25 points on the Stroke Impact Scale (SIS) hand function score (MCID = 17.8 points). Among the 361 randomized patients (mean age, 60.7 years; 56% men; 42% African American; mean time since stroke onset, 46 days), 304 (84%) completed the 12-month primary outcome assessment; in intention-to-treat analysis, mean group change scores (log WMFT, baseline to 12 months) were, for the ASAP group, 2.2 to 1.4 (difference, 0.82); DEUCC group, 2.0 to 1.2 (difference, 0.84); and UCC group, 2.1 to 1.4 (difference, 0.75), with no significant between-group differences (ASAP vs DEUCC: 0.14; 95% CI, -0.05 to 0.33; P = .16; ASAP vs UCC: -0.01; 95% CI, -0.22 to 0.21; P = .94; and DEUCC vs UCC: -0.14; 95% CI, -0.32 to 0.05; P = .15). Secondary outcomes for the ASAP

  7. Myoelectrically driven functional electrical stimulation may increase motor recovery of upper limb in poststroke subjects: A randomized controlled pilot study

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    Rune Thorsen, PhD, MScee

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this randomized controlled pilot study was to assess the feasibility and effectiveness of myoelectrically controlled functional electrical stimulation (MeCFES for rehabilitation of the upper limb in poststroke subjects. Eleven poststroke hemiparetic subjects with residual proximal control of the arm, but impaired volitional opening of the paretic hand, were enrolled and randomized into a treated and a control group. Subjects received 3 to 5 treatment sessions per week until totaling 25 sessions. In the experimental group, myoelectric activity from wrist and finger extensors was used to control stimulation of the same muscles. Patients treated with MeCFES (n = 5 had a significant (p = 0.04 and clinically important improvement in Action Research Arm Test score (median change 9 points, confirmed by an Individually Prioritized Problem Assessment self-evaluation score. This improvement was maintained at follow-up. The control group did not show a significant improvement (p = 0.13. The reduced sample size of participants, together with confounding factors such as spontaneous recovery, calls for larger studies to draw definite conclusions. However, the large and persistent treatment effect seen in our results indicate that MeCFES could play an important role as a clinical tool for stroke rehabilitation.

  8. Restrictive vs Liberal Blood Transfusion for Acute Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding: Rationale and Protocol for a Cluster Randomized Feasibility Trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jairath, Vipul; Kahan, Brennan C.; Gray, Alasdair; Doré, Caroline J.; Mora, Ana; Dyer, Claire; Stokes, Elizabeth A.; Llewelyn, Charlotte; Bailey, Adam A.; Dallal, Helen; Everett, Simon M.; James, Martin W.; Stanley, Adrian J.; Church, Nicholas; Darwent, Melanie; Greenaway, John; Le Jeune, Ivan; Reckless, Ian; Campbell, Helen E.; Meredith, Sarah; Palmer, Kelvin R.; Logan, Richard F.A.; Travis, Simon P.L.; Walsh, Timothy S.; Murphy, Michael F.

    2013-01-01

    Acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIB) is the commonest reason for hospitalization with hemorrhage in the UK and the leading indication for transfusion of red blood cells (RBCs). Observational studies suggest an association between more liberal RBC transfusion and adverse patient outcomes, and a recent randomised trial reported increased further bleeding and mortality with a liberal transfusion policy. TRIGGER (Transfusion in Gastrointestinal Bleeding) is a pragmatic, cluster randomized trial which aims to evaluate the feasibility and safety of implementing a restrictive versus liberal RBC transfusion policy in adult patients admitted with AUGIB. The trial will take place in 6 UK hospitals, and each centre will be randomly allocated to a transfusion policy. Clinicians throughout each hospital will manage all eligible patients according to the transfusion policy for the 6-month trial recruitment period. In the restrictive centers, patients become eligible for RBC transfusion when their hemoglobin is bleeding, mortality, thromboembolic events, and infections. Quality of life will be measured using the EuroQol EQ-5D at day 28, and the costs associated with hospitalization for AUGIB in the UK will be estimated. Consent will be sought from participants or their representatives according to patient capacity for use of routine hospital data and day 28 follow up. The study has ethical approval for conduct in England and Scotland. Results will be analysed according to a pre-defined statistical analysis plan and disseminated in peer reviewed publications to relevant stakeholders. The results of this study will inform the feasibility and design of a phase III randomized trial. PMID:23706959

  9. Upper gastrointestinal endoscopy:Are preparatory interventions or conscious sedation effective? A randomized trial

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Lucio Trevisani; Sergio Sartori; Piergiorgio Gaudenzi; Giuseppe Gilli; Giancarlo Matarese; Sergio Gullini; Vincenzo Abbasciano

    2004-01-01

    AIM: The fears and concerns are associated with gastroscopy(EGD) decrease patient compliance. Conscious sedation(CS) and non-pharmacological interventions have beenproposed to reduce anxiety and allow better execution of EGD. The aim of this study was to assess whether CS,supplementary information with a videotape, or presence of a relative during the examination could improve the tolerance to EGD.METHODS: Two hundred and twenty-six outpatients (pts),scheduled for a first-time non-emergency EGD were randomly assigned to 4 groups: Co-group (62 pts): throat anaesthesia only; Mi-group (52 pts): CS with i.v. midazolam; Re-group(58 pts): presence of a relative throughout the procedure;Vi-group (54 pts): additional information with a videotape.Anxiety was measured using the "Spielberger State and Trait Anxiety Scales". The patients assessed the overall discomfort during the procedure on an 100-mm visual analogue scale, and their tolerance to EGD answering a questionnaire.The endoscopist evaluated the technical difficulty of the examination and the tolerance of the patients on an 100-mm visual analogue scale and answering a questionnaire.RESULTS: Pre-endoscopy anxiety levels were higher in the Mi-group than in the other groups (P<0.001). On the basis of the patients' evaluation, EGD was well tolerated by 80.7%of patients in Mi-group, 43.5% in Co-group, 58.6% in Regroup, and 50% in Vi-group (P<0.01). The discomfort caused by EGD, evaluated by either the endoscopist or the patients,was lower in Mi-group than in the other groups. The discomfort was correlated with "age" (P<0.001) and "groups of patients"(P<0.05) in the patients' evaluation, and with "gender"(females tolerated better than males, P<0.001) and "groups of patients" (P<0.05) in the endoscopist's evaluation.CONCLUSION: Conscious sedation can improve the tolerance to EGD. Male gender and young age are predictive factors of bad tolerance to the procedure.

  10. Effects of zinc and "health belief model" education on upper respiratory infections in hajj travelers: a randomized clinical trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahmoudian S.A

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: The common cold is the most prevalent sickness and an important cause of absence from job. Furthermore, it often disturbs travel, including the practice of hajj, causing the use of many inappropriate drugs by these travelers. The health belief model is a psychological model that attempts to explain and predict health behaviors. The purpose of this study was to determine the effects of zinc and health belief model based educational intervention on the behavior of hajj travelers with regard to viral upper respiratory tract infections (URTI.Methods: This double-blinded randomized controlled trial was performed among hajj travelers in 2005. Preventive measures were randomly allocated to four groups: 1- education + zinc sulfate. 2- education + placebo. 3- zinc sulfate only 4- placebo only. Data regarding incidence and duration of URTIs, background disorders, vaccination and health behaviors for cold were gathered by questionnaire by physicians and finally analyzed by SPSS 11.5 software using chi-square, t-test and independent samples t-test.Results: A total of 646 travelers were studied. The incidence of common cold in groups receiving zinc were significantly less than that for those receiving the placebo. (P=0.05. However, incidence was statistically the same for those who received education versus those who did not. Use of handkerchief was the most prevalent behavior and use of mask was the least prevalent behavior. Mean duration of symptoms was less in those receiving zinc and education (3.7 days comparing to those who received placebo and education (5.6 days.  Conclusions: This study showed that zinc consumption can decrease the incidence and duration of the common cold. Health belief model based education could promote some preventive behaviors although most people do not take advantage of them. We recommend the use of zinc by those attending hajj.

  11. Comparison of dexmedetomidine, midazolam, and propofol as an optimal sedative for upper gastrointestinal endoscopy: A randomized controlled trial

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    Sumanth Samson

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Context: Midazolam and propofol are effective sedatives for use in upper gastrointestinal endoscopy (UGIE; however, their utility is limited when used alone. In this regard, dexmedetomidine seems to be a promising sedative. Aims: The aim was to compare the hemodynamic effects and sedation efficacy of these drugs in patients undergoing elective diagnostic UGIE. Settings and Design: Randomized control double-blind study was conducted at a teaching hospital. Subjects and Methods: Patients belonging to ASA Grade I or II, undergoing diagnostic elective UGIE were enrolled in the study and randomized into three groups; Group I received midazolam infusion, Group II received propofol infusion and Group III received dexmedetomidine infusion. Hemodynamic parameters and adverse events were recorded during the procedure (intra-operative period [IOP]. Both patient and endoscopist satisfaction were rated on visual analog scale (0 = no pain/least difficulty to 10 = worst pain/maximum difficulty. Recovery was recorded as time to achieve modified Aldrete score of 10/10. Statistical Analysis: Parametric test analysis of variance was applied to compare the means of three groups of continuous data. Results: Ninety patients were analyzed. Mean arterial pressure was significantly lower in the propofol group at IOP 2 , IOP 4 , IOP 8 , and IOP 10 compared with dexmedetomidine and midazolam group. The endoscopist satisfaction level was significantly higher in dexmedetomidine group as compared to propofol and midazolam (60%, 56.7%, 13.3%; P < 0.001. Significantly faster recovery was observed in dexmedetomidine group compared to midazolam and propofol group (7.7 ± 3.9, 18.3 ± 3.8, 12.7 ± 2.9 min; P = 0.001. Conclusions: Use of dexmedetomidine was associated with greater hemodynamic stability and faster recovery when compared to propofol and midazolam.

  12. Cost-effectiveness of multidisciplinary treatment in sick-listed patients with upper extremity musculoskeletal disorders: a randomized, controlled trial with one-year follow up

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meijer, E.M.; Sluiter, J.K.; Heyma, A.; Sadiraj, K.; Frings-Dresen, M.H.W.

    2006-01-01

    Objective: To determine the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a return-to-work outpatient multidisciplinary treatment programme for sick-listed workers with non-specific upper extremity musculoskeletal complaints. Methods: A randomized controlled trial with a 1-year follow-up was carried out.

  13. Confidant Relations in Italy

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    Jenny Isaacs

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Confidants are often described as the individuals with whom we choose to disclose personal, intimate matters. The presence of a confidant is associated with both mental and physical health benefits. In this study, 135 Italian adults responded to a structured questionnaire that asked if they had a confidant, and if so, to describe various features of the relationship. The vast majority of participants (91% reported the presence of a confidant and regarded this relationship as personally important, high in mutuality and trust, and involving minimal lying. Confidants were significantly more likely to be of the opposite sex. Participants overall were significantly more likely to choose a spouse or other family member as their confidant, rather than someone outside of the family network. Familial confidants were generally seen as closer, and of greater value, than non-familial confidants. These findings are discussed within the context of Italian culture.

  14. Rehabilitation plus OnabotulinumtoxinA Improves Motor Function over OnabotulinumtoxinA Alone in Post-Stroke Upper Limb Spasticity: A Single-Blind, Randomized Trial

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    Deidre Devier

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: OnabotulinumtoxinA (BoNT-A can temporarily decrease spasticity following stroke, but whether there is an associated improvement in upper limb function is less clear. This study measured the benefit of adding weekly rehabilitation to a background of BoNT-A treatments for chronic upper limb spasticity following stroke. Methods: This was a multi-center clinical trial. Thirty-one patients with post-stroke upper limb spasticity were treated with BoNT-A. They were then randomly assigned to 24 weeks of weekly upper limb rehabilitation or no rehabilitation. They were injected up to two times, and followed for 24 weeks. The primary outcome was change in the Fugl–Meyer upper extremity score, which measures motor function, sensation, range of motion, coordination, and speed. Results: The ‘rehab’ group significantly improved on the Fugl–Meyer upper extremity score (Visit 1 = 60, Visit 5 = 67 while the ‘no rehab’ group did not improve (Visit 1 = 59, Visit 5 = 59; p = 0.006. This improvement was largely driven by the upper extremity “movement” subscale, which showed that the ‘rehab’ group was improving (Visit 1 = 33, Visit 5 = 37 while the ‘no rehab’ group remained virtually unchanged (Visit 1 = 34, Visit 5 = 33; p = 0.034. Conclusions: Following injection of BoNT-A, adding a program of rehabilitation improved motor recovery compared to an injected group with no rehabilitation.

  15. 多值半流的吸引子在随机扰动下的上半连续性%Upper semi-continuity of attractors for multivalued semi-flow under random perturbation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李挺; 刘曾荣

    2006-01-01

    In this paper the upper semi-continuity of global attractors for multivalued semi-flows under random perturbation was studied. First, the existence of random attractors for multivalued random semi-flows was considered, then it was proved that the global attractors for multivalue semi-flows are the upper semi-continuity under random perturbation. This result can be used in the ntmerical approximation of multivalued semi-flows and non-autonomous perturbation of multivalued semi-flows.Key words random attractor, upper semi-continuity, absorbing set.

  16. The Model Confidence Set

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Reinhard; Lunde, Asger; Nason, James M.

    The paper introduces the model confidence set (MCS) and applies it to the selection of models. A MCS is a set of models that is constructed such that it will contain the best model with a given level of confidence. The MCS is in this sense analogous to a confidence interval for a parameter. The M...

  17. Increasing Mobility Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Español In Your Area NPF Shop Increasing Mobility Confidence To increase your confidence moving, you have to move! Make Text Smaller ... It might seem counterintuitive, but to increase your confidence moving, you have to move! Build physical activity ...

  18. Confidence in Numerical Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hemez, Francois M. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-02-23

    This PowerPoint presentation offers a high-level discussion of uncertainty, confidence and credibility in scientific Modeling and Simulation (M&S). It begins by briefly evoking M&S trends in computational physics and engineering. The first thrust of the discussion is to emphasize that the role of M&S in decision-making is either to support reasoning by similarity or to “forecast,” that is, make predictions about the future or extrapolate to settings or environments that cannot be tested experimentally. The second thrust is to explain that M&S-aided decision-making is an exercise in uncertainty management. The three broad classes of uncertainty in computational physics and engineering are variability and randomness, numerical uncertainty and model-form uncertainty. The last part of the discussion addresses how scientists “think.” This thought process parallels the scientific method where by a hypothesis is formulated, often accompanied by simplifying assumptions, then, physical experiments and numerical simulations are performed to confirm or reject the hypothesis. “Confidence” derives, not just from the levels of training and experience of analysts, but also from the rigor with which these assessments are performed, documented and peer-reviewed.

  19. Proton-pump inhibitor therapy for acetylsalicylic acid associated upper gastrointestinal symptoms: a randomized placebo-controlled trial.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Laheij, R.J.F.; Rossum, L.G.M. van; Jansen, J.B.M.J.; Verheugt, F.W.A.

    2003-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Patients using acetylsalicylic acid (aspirin) have an increased risk of upper gastrointestinal discomfort. The aim of this study was to assess whether gastric acid suppression improves upper gastrointestinal symptoms in patients using low-dose aspirin for cardiovascular disease. METHODS:

  20. Strengthening Public Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herlihy, John J.

    Board members and administrators can build public confidence in their schools by taking every opportunity to communicate positive attitudes about the people in the schools. As leaders, they have the responsibility to use people power to promote the schools. If school employees feel good about their jobs, they will build confidence within the…

  1. Comparative study between ultrasound guided tap block and paravertebral block in upper abdominal surgeries. Randomized controlled trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruqaya M. Elsayed

    2017-01-01

    Conclusion: We concluded that ultrasound guided transversus abdominis plane block and thoracic paravertebral block were safe and effective anesthetic technique for upper abdominal surgery with longer and potent postoperative analgesia in thoracic paravertebral block than transversus abdominis block.

  2. Trust vs. Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-07

    defined. Although there are many different definitions of trust, our definition (Adams and Webb, 2003) is as follows: Trust is a psychological state...Judgments: Experiments on the Time to Determine Confidence. Journal of Experimental Psychology : Human Perception and Performance, 24(3), 929-945. BARANSKI...PETRUSIC, W. (2001). Testing Architectures of the Decision-Confidence Relation. Canadian Journal of Experimental Psychology , 55(3): 195-206. PETRUSIC, W

  3. OPTIMIZING OVERALL FUNCTION OF THE UPPER LIMB IS EFFECTIVE TREATMENT FOR SHOULDER PAIN IN INDIVIDUALS WITH STROKE: A RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED TRIAL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed E Khallaf, PhD PT

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: Shoulder pain is frequent after stroke and interferes with the rehabilitative process and functional outcomes. Treatments used for post-stroke shoulder pain are limited and largely ineffective. Objectives: This randomized controlled study was conducted to study the effect of optimizing overall function of upper limb on the basis of pathomechanics and motor relearning as a treatment of hemiparetic shoulder pain. Subjects and methods: Thirty patients with first ever stroke suffering shoulder pain on movement and at rest were included in this study. Pain was measured by the Visual Analogue Scale (VAS and Chedoke-McMaster Stroke Assessment (CMSA was used for measuring motor recovery and functional level. Shoulder abduction, flexion and external rotation ranges of motion (ROM were also measured. The participants were randomly assigned into two equal groups (G1 and G2. Those in G1 received an exercise therapy based on optimizing overall function of upper limb as a treatment of hemiparetic shoulder pain. Shoulder range of motion exercises were done for the patients represented G2. Treatments were applied for twelve weeks 5 times per week for 60 minutes. Results: shoulder pain and motor recovery scores improved significantly in addition to a significant increase in the shoulder ROMs (p < 0.05. Conclusion: These results suggest that exercise therapy which emphasize interrelationship of all areas of the upper limb to optimize overall function exerts positive effects on shoulder pain and functional recovery in participants with stroke.

  4. Effective low dosage of mepivacaine in ultrasound-guided axillary nerve block: a double-blinded, randomized clinical trial of efficacy in patients undergoing distal upper extremity surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perov, Samuel; Patel, Pranav; Kumar, Sanjeev; McKelvey, George M; Chidiac, Elie; Motlani, Faisal

    2014-05-01

    To evaluate two low-dose volumes (20 mL or 30 mL) of 1.5% mepivacaine solution used for ultrasound-guided axillary blockade for outpatients undergoing distal upper limb surgery. Prospective, double-blinded randomized study. Outpatient surgical setting of a university-affiliated hospital. 64 adult, ASA physical status 1, 2, and 3 patients, aged 28-46 years, scheduled for upper limb surgery. Patients were randomized to two groups to receive either 20 mL of 1.5% mepivacaine solution (n=31) or 30 mL of 1.5% mepivacaine solution (n=33) for ultrasound-guided axillary plexus blockade. Block duration, proportion of surgical and functional successful blocks, onset of sensory and motor blockade measured from 0 to 30 minutes following final needle extraction, total amount of preoperative sedative (midazolam), and intraoperative propofol administered were recorded. Following axillary plexus blockade, neither patient group showed any statistically significant difference in the percentage of functionally successful blockade (30 mL, 100%: 20 mL, 97%; P = 0.48), surgically successful blockade (30 mL, 100%; 20 mL, 94%; P = 0.23), cumulative sensory or motor blockade surgical time, block performance time, preoperative midazolam use, or intraoperative propofol use. Low volumes (30 mL or 20 mL) of 1.5% mepivacaine provides satisfactory anesthesia for ambulatory distal upper limb surgery with no significant difference in clinical outcomes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Does a retropulsion prevention device equalize the surgical success of Ho:YAG laser and pneumatic lithotripters for upper ureteral stones? A prospective randomized study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagbanci, Sahin; Dadali, Mumtaz; Dadalı, Yeliz; Emir, Levent; Gorgulu, Ozkan; Karabulut, Ayhan

    2016-10-19

    To establish if a retropulsion prevention device for ureteral stones equalizes surgical success and push-back rates of Ho:YAG laser and pneumatic lithotripters for upper ureteral stones. Patients with upper ureteral stones (n = 267) were treated endoscopically at the Department of Urology between April 2014 and December 2015. Patients were randomly assigned to pneumatic and Ho:YAG laser lithotripters as group-1 and group-2, respectively. Lithotripsy was performed with Stone Cone(TM) in both groups. The surgical success rate on the first postoperative day was 81.5 % (n = 106) and 90.6 % (n = 116) for group-1 and group-2, respectively, and the difference between the groups was statistically significant (p pneumatic group versus 64 % for the laser group (p pneumatic lithotripsy for upper ureteral stones and a retropulsion prevention device does not equalize the surgical success of Ho:YAG laser and pneumatic lithotripters for upper ureteral stones on the first postoperative day and one month after surgery. Although the success rate of the first month after surgery is higher in group-2, the difference is not statistically significant.

  6. Does Training of the Nondominant Upper Extremity Reduce the Surgeon's Muscular Strain During Laparoscopy?: Results From a Randomized Controlled Trial

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nieboer, T.E.; Massa, M.; Weinans, M.J.; Vierhout, M.E.; Kluivers, K.B.; Stegeman, D.F.

    2013-01-01

    Introduction. In laparoscopy, suboptimal ergonomics frequently lead to morbidity for surgeons. Physical complaints are more commonly reported on the dominant upper extremity. This may be the consequence of challenging laparoscopic tasks being easier to perform with the dominant side. The authors hyp

  7. Intermanual Transfer in Training With an Upper-Limb Myoelectric Prosthesis Simulator : A Mechanistic, Randomized, Pretest-Posttest Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Romkema, Sietske; Bongers, Raoul M.; van der Sluis, Corry K.

    2013-01-01

    Background. Intermanual transfer may improve prosthetic handling and acceptance if used in training soon after an amputation. Objective. The purpose of this study was to determine whether intermanual transfer effects can be detected after training with a myoelectric upper-limb prosthesis simulator.

  8. Generalized confidence interval plots using commands or dialogs

    OpenAIRE

    Roger Newson

    2005-01-01

    Confidence intervals may be presented as publication-ready tables or as presentation-ready plots. -eclplot- produces plots of estimates and confidence intervals. It inputs a dataset (or resultsset) with one observation per parameter and variables containing estimates, lower and upper confidence limits, and a fourth variable, against which the confidence intervals are plotted. This resultsset can be used for producing both plots and tables, and may be generated using a spreadsheet or using -st...

  9. The Confidence Trick

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steve Keen

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available This article reflects on the role that confidence plays in recovery from a financial crisis.The author reflects on lessons from the past – specifically The Great Crash of 1929 and on thework of economists Keynes and Fisher to apply to our current economic woes.The role of overconfidence in our current crisis is also examined.

  10. The Confidence Trick

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    This article reflects on the role that confidence plays in recovery from a financial crisis.The author reflects on lessons from the past – specifically The Great Crash of 1929 and on thework of economists Keynes and Fisher to apply to our current economic woes.The role of overconfidence in our current crisis is also examined.

  11. Confidence in Coastal Forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baart, F.

    2013-01-01

    This thesis answers the question "How can we show and improve our confidence in coastal forecasts?", by providing four examples of common coastal forecasts. The first example shows how to improve the estimate of the one in ten thousand year storm-surge level. The three dimensional reconstruction,

  12. Adding Confidence to Knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodson, Ludwika Aniela; Slater, Don; Zubovic, Yvonne

    2015-01-01

    A "knowledge survey" and a formative evaluation process led to major changes in an instructor's course and teaching methods over a 5-year period. Design of the survey incorporated several innovations, including: a) using "confidence survey" rather than "knowledge survey" as the title; b) completing an instructional…

  13. Raising Confident Kids

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... new skill and milestone, kids can develop increasing confidence. Parents can help by giving kids lots of opportunities to practice and master their skills, letting kids make mistakes and being there to boost their spirits so they keep trying. Respond with ...

  14. Resolving the Confidence Crisis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apter, Terri

    2006-01-01

    As children approach adolescence, they often experience confusion and uncertainty as they attempt to appear more grown up than they really feel. Research on both girls and boys has documented that the buoyant self-confidence of younger children often gives way to self-consciousness as young adolescents become aware of the complexity and difficulty…

  15. Effectiveness of the Virtual Reality System Toyra on Upper Limb Function in People with Tetraplegia: A Pilot Randomized Clinical Trial

    OpenAIRE

    Dimbwadyo-Terrer, I.; A. Gil-Agudo; A. Segura-Fragoso; de los Reyes-Guzmán, A.; F. Trincado-Alonso; Piazza, S.; Polonio-López, B.

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of a virtual reality program combined with conventional therapy in upper limb function in people with tetraplegia and to provide data about patients' satisfaction with the virtual reality system. Thirty-one people with subacute complete cervical tetraplegia participated in the study. Experimental group received 15 sessions with Toyra® virtual reality system for 5 weeks, 30 minutes/day, 3 days/week in addition to conventional therapy, while ...

  16. Combined Cognitive-Strategy and Task-Specific Training Affects Cognition and Upper-Extremity Function in Subacute Stroke: An Exploratory Randomized Controlled Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, Timothy J; Polatajko, Helene; Baum, Carolyn; Rios, Jorge; Cirone, Dianne; Doherty, Meghan; McEwen, Sara

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to estimate the effect of Cognitive Orientation to Daily Occupational Performance (CO-OP) compared with usual occupational therapy on upper-extremity movement, cognitive flexibility, and stroke impact in people less than 3 mo after stroke. An exploratory, single-blind randomized controlled trial was conducted with people referred to outpatient occupational therapy services at two rehabilitation centers. Arm movement was measured with the Action Research Arm Test, cognitive flexibility with the Delis-Kaplan Executive Function System Trail Making subtest, and stroke impact with subscales of the Stroke Impact Scale. A total of 35 participants were randomized, and 26 completed the intervention. CO-OP demonstrated measurable effects over usual care on all measures. These data provide early support for the use of CO-OP to improve performance and remediate cognitive and arm movement impairments after stroke over usual care; however, future study is warranted to confirm the effects observed in this trial.

  17. Binomial Distribution Sample Confidence Intervals Estimation 6. Excess Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sorana BOLBOACĂ

    2004-02-01

    Full Text Available We present the problem of the confidence interval estimation for excess risk (Y/n-X/m fraction, a parameter which allows evaluating of the specificity of an association between predisposing or causal factors and disease in medical studies. The parameter is computes based on 2x2 contingency table and qualitative variables. The aim of this paper is to introduce four new methods of computing confidence intervals for excess risk called DAC, DAs, DAsC, DBinomial, and DBinomialC and to compare theirs performance with the asymptotic method called here DWald.In order to assess the methods, we use the PHP programming language and a PHP program was creates. The performance of each method for different sample sizes and different values of binomial variables were assess using a set of criterions. First, the upper and lower boundaries for a given X, Y and a specified sample size for choused methods were compute. Second, were assessed the average and standard deviation of the experimental errors, and the deviation relative to imposed significance level α = 5%. Four methods were assessed on random numbers for binomial variables and for sample sizes from 4 to 1000 domain.The experiments show that the DAC methods obtain performances in confidence intervals estimation for excess risk.

  18. Confidence intervals with a priori parameter bounds

    CERN Document Server

    Lokhov, A V

    2014-01-01

    We review the methods of constructing confidence intervals that account for a priori information about one-sided constraints on the parameter being estimated. We show that the so-called method of sensitivity limit yields a correct solution of the problem. Derived are the solutions for the cases of a continuous distribution with non-negative estimated parameter and a discrete distribution, specifically a Poisson process with background. For both cases, the best upper limit is constructed that accounts for the a priori information. A table is provided with the confidence intervals for the parameter of Poisson distribution that correctly accounts for the information on the known value of the background along with the software for calculating the confidence intervals for any confidence levels and magnitudes of the background (the software is freely available for download via Internet).

  19. The effects of game-based virtual reality movement therapy plus mental practice on upper extremity function in chronic stroke patients with hemiparesis: a randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jin-Hyuck; Park, Ji-Hyuk

    2016-03-01

    [Purpose] The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of game-based virtual reality movement therapy plus mental practice on upper extremity function in chronic stroke patients with hemiparesis. [Subjects] The subjects were chronic stroke patients with hemiparesis. [Methods] Thirty subjects were randomly assigned to either the control group or experimental group. All subjects received 20 sessions (5 days in a week) of virtual reality movement therapy using the Nintendo Wii. In addition to Wii-based virtual reality movement therapy, experimental group subjects performed mental practice consisting of 5 minutes of relaxation, Wii games imagination, and normalization phases before the beginning of Wii games. To compare the two groups, the upper extremity subtest of the Fugl-Meyer Assessment, Box and Block Test, and quality of movement subscale of the Motor Activity Log were performed. [Results] Both groups showed statistically significant improvement in the Fugl-Meyer Assessment, Box and Block Test, and quality of the movement subscale of Motor Activity Log after the interventions. Also, there were significant differences in the Fugl-Meyer Assessment, Box and Block Test, and quality of movement subscale of the Motor Activity Log between the two groups. [Conclusion] Game-based virtual reality movement therapy alone may be helpful to improve functional recovery of the upper extremity, but the addition of MP produces a lager improvement.

  20. Effect of bloodletting therapy at local myofascial trigger points and acupuncture at Jiaji (EX-B 2) points on upper back myofascial pain syndrome: a randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Guimei; Jia, Chao; Lin, Mode

    2016-02-01

    To observe the clinical efficacy of bloodletting therapy and acupuncture at Jiaji points for treating upper back myofascial pain syndrome (MPS), and compare this with lidocaine block therapy. A total of 66 upper back MPS patients were randomly assigned to either the treatment group or the control group in a 1: 1 ratio. The treatment group (n = 33) were treated with bloodletting therapy at local myofascial trigger points and acupuncture at Jiaji (EX-B 2) points; one treatment course consisted of five, single 20-min-treatments with a 2-day break between each treatment. The control group (n = 33) were treated with a lidocaine block at trigger points; one treatment course consisted of five sessions of lidocaine block therapy with a 2-day break between each session. The simplified McGill Scale (SF-MPQ) and tenderness threshold determination were used to assess pain before and after a course of treatment. After the third and fifth treatment, the SF-MPQ values were significantly decreased (P 0.05). There were five cases with minor adverse reactions reported in the control patients, while no adverse reactions were reported in the treatment group. Bloodletting therapy at local myofascial trigger points and acupuncture at Jiaji points was effective in treating upper back MPS. Clinically, bloodletting and acupuncture therapy had the same efficacy as the lidocaine block therapy, with fewer adverse reactions.

  1. Canoe game-based virtual reality training to improve trunk postural stability, balance, and upper limb motor function in subacute stroke patients: a randomized controlled pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Myung-Mo; Shin, Doo-Chul; Song, Chang-Ho

    2016-07-01

    [Purpose] This study was aimed at investigating the preliminary therapeutic efficacy and usefulness of canoe game-based virtual reality training for stroke patients. [Subjects and Methods] Ten stroke patients were randomly assigned to an experimental group (EG; n=5) or a control group (CG; n=5). Patients in both groups participated in a conventional rehabilitation program, but those in the EG additionally participated in a 30-min canoe game-based virtual reality training program 3 days a week for 4 weeks. Therapeutic efficacy was assessed based on trunk postural stability, balance, and upper limb motor function. In addition, the usefulness of canoe game-based virtual reality training was assessed in the EG and therapist group (TG; n=20), which consisted of physical and occupational therapists, by using the System Usability Scale (SUS). [Results] Improvements in trunk postural stability, balance, and upper limb motor function were observed in the EG and CG, but were greater in the EG. The mean SUS scores in the EG and TG were 71 ± 5.2 and 74.2 ± 4.8, respectively. [Conclusion] Canoe game-based virtual reality training is an acceptable and effective intervention for improving trunk postural stability, balance, and upper limb motor function in stroke patients.

  2. Mirror therapy combined with biofeedback functional electrical stimulation for motor recovery of upper extremities after stroke: a pilot randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jung Hee; Lee, Byoung-Hee

    2015-06-01

    The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of mirror therapy in combination with biofeedback functional electrical stimulation (BF-FES) on motor recovery of the upper extremities after stroke. Twenty-nine patients who suffered a stroke > 6 months prior participated in this study and were randomly allocated to three groups. The BF-FES + mirror therapy and FES + mirror therapy groups practiced training for 5 × 30 min sessions over a 4-week period. The control group received a conventional physical therapy program. The following clinical tools were used to assess motor recovery of the upper extremities: electrical muscle tester, electrogoniometer, dual-inclinometer, electrodynamometer, the Box and Block Test (BBT) and Jabsen Taylor Hand Function Test (JHFT), the Functional Independence Measure, the Modified Ashworth Scale, and the Stroke Specific Quality of Life (SSQOL) assessment. The BF-FES + mirror therapy group showed significant improvement in wrist extension as revealed by the Manual Muscle Test and Range of Motion (p mirror therapy group showed significant improvement in the BBT, JTHT, and SSQOL compared with the FES + mirror therapy group and control group (p mirror therapy induced motor recovery and improved quality of life. These results suggest that mirror therapy, in combination with BF-FES, is feasible and effective for motor recovery of the upper extremities after stroke. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  3. Comparison of the Effectiveness of Transcutaneous Electrical Nerve Stimulation and Interferential Therapy on the Upper Trapezius in Myofascial Pain Syndrome: A Randomized Controlled Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dissanayaka, Thusharika Dilrukshi; Pallegama, Ranjith Wasantha; Suraweera, Hilari Justus; Johnson, Mark I; Kariyawasam, Anula Padma

    2016-09-01

    The aim of this study was to compare the effectiveness of transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation and interferential therapy (IFT) both in combination with hot pack, myofascial release, active range of motion exercise, and a home exercise program on myofascial pain syndrome patients with upper trapezius myofascial trigger point. A total of 105 patients with an upper trapezius myofascial trigger point were recruited to this single-blind randomized controlled trial. Following random allocation of patients to three groups, three therapeutic regimens-control-standard care (hot pack, active range of motion exercises, myofascial release, and a home exercise program with postural advice), transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation-standard care and IFT-standard care-were administered eight times during 4 wks at regular intervals. Pain intensity and cervical range of motions (cervical extension, lateral flexion to the contralateral side, and rotation to the ipsilateral side) were measured at baseline, immediately after the first treatment, before the eighth treatment, and 1 wk after the eighth treatment. Immediate and short-term improvements were marked in the transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation group (n = 35) compared with the IFT group (n = 35) and the control group (n = 35) with respect to pain intensity and cervical range of motions (P < 0.05). The IFT group showed significant improvement on these outcome measurements than the control group did (P < 0.05). Transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation with standard care facilitates recovery better than IFT does in the same combination.

  4. Business Confidence Survey 2000

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Guo Yan

    2009-01-01

    @@ In order to gain a better understanding about the depth and breadth of its effect on European companies'businesses,the new strategies they are adopting to cope with the crisis,and how their attitudes to towards China-including long-term plans-have changed in its aftermath,the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China today launches its sixth annual European Chamber Business Confidence Survey,which is published in partnership with Roland Berger Strategy Consultants in Beijing on June 30,2009.Drawing on the responses of more than 300 European companies active in China.the 2009 Survey highlights a European business community that remains bullish in China in most sectors and read to back up that confidence with continued investment in the local economy provided that Chinese government is committed to creating a more free,fair and competitive market.

  5. Varieties of Confidence Intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cousineau, Denis

    2017-01-01

    Error bars are useful to understand data and their interrelations. Here, it is shown that confidence intervals of the mean (CI M s) can be adjusted based on whether the objective is to highlight differences between measures or not and based on the experimental design (within- or between-group designs). Confidence intervals (CIs) can also be adjusted to take into account the sampling mechanisms and the population size (if not infinite). Names are proposed to distinguish the various types of CIs and the assumptions underlying them, and how to assess their validity is explained. The various CIs presented here are easily obtained from a succession of multiplicative adjustments to the basic (unadjusted) CI width. All summary results should present a measure of precision, such as CIs, as this information is complementary to effect sizes.

  6. Effectiveness of the Virtual Reality System Toyra on Upper Limb Function in People with Tetraplegia: A Pilot Randomized Clinical Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimbwadyo-Terrer, I; Gil-Agudo, A; Segura-Fragoso, A; de los Reyes-Guzmán, A; Trincado-Alonso, F; Piazza, S; Polonio-López, B

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of a virtual reality program combined with conventional therapy in upper limb function in people with tetraplegia and to provide data about patients' satisfaction with the virtual reality system. Thirty-one people with subacute complete cervical tetraplegia participated in the study. Experimental group received 15 sessions with Toyra(®) virtual reality system for 5 weeks, 30 minutes/day, 3 days/week in addition to conventional therapy, while control group only received conventional therapy. All patients were assessed at baseline, after intervention, and at three-month follow-up with a battery of clinical, functional, and satisfaction scales. Control group showed significant improvements in the manual muscle test (p = 0,043, partial η (2) = 0,22) in the follow-up evaluation. Both groups demonstrated clinical, but nonsignificant, changes to their arm function in 4 of the 5 scales used. All patients showed a high level of satisfaction with the virtual reality system. This study showed that virtual reality added to conventional therapy produces similar results in upper limb function compared to only conventional therapy. Moreover, the gaming aspects incorporated in conventional rehabilitation appear to produce high motivation during execution of the assigned tasks. This trial is registered with EudraCT number 2015-002157-35.

  7. Effectiveness of the Virtual Reality System Toyra on Upper Limb Function in People with Tetraplegia: A Pilot Randomized Clinical Trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Dimbwadyo-Terrer

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of a virtual reality program combined with conventional therapy in upper limb function in people with tetraplegia and to provide data about patients’ satisfaction with the virtual reality system. Thirty-one people with subacute complete cervical tetraplegia participated in the study. Experimental group received 15 sessions with Toyra® virtual reality system for 5 weeks, 30 minutes/day, 3 days/week in addition to conventional therapy, while control group only received conventional therapy. All patients were assessed at baseline, after intervention, and at three-month follow-up with a battery of clinical, functional, and satisfaction scales. Control group showed significant improvements in the manual muscle test (p = 0,043, partial η2 = 0,22 in the follow-up evaluation. Both groups demonstrated clinical, but nonsignificant, changes to their arm function in 4 of the 5 scales used. All patients showed a high level of satisfaction with the virtual reality system. This study showed that virtual reality added to conventional therapy produces similar results in upper limb function compared to only conventional therapy. Moreover, the gaming aspects incorporated in conventional rehabilitation appear to produce high motivation during execution of the assigned tasks. This trial is registered with EudraCT number 2015-002157-35.

  8. Effectiveness of the Virtual Reality System Toyra on Upper Limb Function in People with Tetraplegia: A Pilot Randomized Clinical Trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimbwadyo-Terrer, I.; Gil-Agudo, A.; Segura-Fragoso, A.; de los Reyes-Guzmán, A.; Trincado-Alonso, F.; Piazza, S.; Polonio-López, B.

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of a virtual reality program combined with conventional therapy in upper limb function in people with tetraplegia and to provide data about patients' satisfaction with the virtual reality system. Thirty-one people with subacute complete cervical tetraplegia participated in the study. Experimental group received 15 sessions with Toyra® virtual reality system for 5 weeks, 30 minutes/day, 3 days/week in addition to conventional therapy, while control group only received conventional therapy. All patients were assessed at baseline, after intervention, and at three-month follow-up with a battery of clinical, functional, and satisfaction scales. Control group showed significant improvements in the manual muscle test (p = 0,043, partial η2 = 0,22) in the follow-up evaluation. Both groups demonstrated clinical, but nonsignificant, changes to their arm function in 4 of the 5 scales used. All patients showed a high level of satisfaction with the virtual reality system. This study showed that virtual reality added to conventional therapy produces similar results in upper limb function compared to only conventional therapy. Moreover, the gaming aspects incorporated in conventional rehabilitation appear to produce high motivation during execution of the assigned tasks. This trial is registered with EudraCT number 2015-002157-35. PMID:26885511

  9. Maximum confidence measurements via probabilistic quantum cloning

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhang Wen-Hai; Yu Long-Bao; Cao Zhuo-Liang; Ye Liu

    2013-01-01

    Probabilistic quantum cloning (PQC) cannot copy a set of linearly dependent quantum states.In this paper,we show that if incorrect copies are allowed to be produced,linearly dependent quantum states may also be cloned by the PQC.By exploiting this kind of PQC to clone a special set of three linearly dependent quantum states,we derive the upper bound of the maximum confidence measure of a set.An explicit transformation of the maximum confidence measure is presented.

  10. Coverage Accuracy of Confidence Intervals in Nonparametric Regression

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Song-xi Chen; Yong-song Qin

    2003-01-01

    Point-wise confidence intervals for a nonparametric regression function with random design points are considered. The confidence intervals are those based on the traditional normal approximation and the empirical likelihood. Their coverage accuracy is assessed by developing the Edgeworth expansions for the coverage probabilities. It is shown that the empirical likelihood confidence intervals are Bartlett correctable.

  11. Confidence sets for network structure

    CERN Document Server

    Airoldi, Edoardo M; Wolfe, Patrick J

    2011-01-01

    Latent variable models are frequently used to identify structure in dichotomous network data, in part because they give rise to a Bernoulli product likelihood that is both well understood and consistent with the notion of exchangeable random graphs. In this article we propose conservative confidence sets that hold with respect to these underlying Bernoulli parameters as a function of any given partition of network nodes, enabling us to assess estimates of 'residual' network structure, that is, structure that cannot be explained by known covariates and thus cannot be easily verified by manual inspection. We demonstrate the proposed methodology by analyzing student friendship networks from the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health that include race, gender, and school year as covariates. We employ a stochastic expectation-maximization algorithm to fit a logistic regression model that includes these explanatory variables as well as a latent stochastic blockmodel component and additional node-specific...

  12. Reclaim your creative confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelley, Tom; Kelley, David

    2012-12-01

    Most people are born creative. But over time, a lot of us learn to stifle those impulses. We become warier of judgment, more cautious more analytical. The world seems to divide into "creatives" and "noncreatives," and too many people resign themselves to the latter category. And yet we know that creativity is essential to success in any discipline or industry. The good news, according to authors Tom Kelley and David Kelley of IDEO, is that we all can rediscover our creative confidence. The trick is to overcome the four big fears that hold most of us back: fear of the messy unknown, fear of judgment, fear of the first step, and fear of losing control. The authors use an approach based on the work of psychologist Albert Bandura in helping patients get over their snake phobias: You break challenges down into small steps and then build confidence by succeeding on one after another. Creativity is something you practice, say the authors, not just a talent you are born with.

  13. Interrelation of economic confidence with other types of confidence

    OpenAIRE

    Бонецький, Орест Олегович

    2013-01-01

    The paper gives the object and the subject of the study, which are used as a criterion allowing to separate the economic confidence from other types of confidence. The terms describing the psychological and sociological confidence are proposed. It was found that the economic confidence is interrelated with psychological confidence by motivation and advertising, sociological – by the results of activity of public organizations, state regulation of the economy. On the example of information-com...

  14. Simulation integration with confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strelich, Tom; Stalcup, Bruce W.

    1999-07-01

    Current financial, schedule and risk constraints mandate reuse of software components when building large-scale simulations. While integration of simulation components into larger systems is a well-understood process, it is extremely difficult to do while ensuring that the results are correct. Illgen Simulation Technologies Incorporated and Litton PRC have joined forces to provide tools to integrate simulations with confidence. Illgen Simulation Technologies has developed an extensible and scaleable, n-tier, client- server, distributed software framework for integrating legacy simulations, models, tools, utilities, and databases. By utilizing the Internet, Java, and the Common Object Request Brokering Architecture as the core implementation technologies, the framework provides built-in scalability and extensibility.

  15. Irritable bowel syndrome and upper dyspepsia among the elderly: a study of symptom clusters in a random 70 year old population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kay, L; Jørgensen, Torben; Schultz-Larsen, K;

    1996-01-01

    later. The following clusters of symptoms were constantly associated. One group constituted abdominal distension, borborygmi, altering stool consistency and number of bowel movements. Pain relieved by bowel movement was associated with this cluster. Nausea and vomiting comprised another cluster......With the aim to assess the clustering of abdominal symptoms in a random population, data from a cohort study of a 70 year old Danish population were analysed. The cohort comprised 1,119 subjects of which 72% participated in a primary study and 91% of the survivors in a similar study five years....... Heartburn/acid regurgitation did not show a consistent association to any other symptoms and may be considered as a cluster of it own. Pain characteristics traditionally related to upper dyspepsia did not specifically relate to any cluster. It is concluded that, in this 70-year-old population abdominal...

  16. Botulinum toxin-a in children with congenital spastic hemiplegia does not improve upper extremity motor-related function over rehabilitation alone: a randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rameckers, E A A; Speth, L A W M; Duysens, J; Vles, J S H; Smits-Engelsman, B C M

    2009-01-01

    Rehabilitation of the upper extremity in children with hemiplegic cerebral palsy has not been compared to the same intensity of therapy combined with injected botulinum toxin (BTX). To measure the short-term (2 weeks) and long-term (6 and 9 months) effects of a standardized functional training program versus without the addition of chemodenervation of forearm and hand muscles. Twenty children with spastic hemiplegia, aged 4 to 16 years, were matched for baseline characteristics and then randomized to standardized functional physical and occupational therapies for 6 months (PT/OT group) or to the same therapies plus multimuscle BTX-A (BTX+ group). were isometric generated force, overshoot and undershoot (force production error), active and passive range of motion by goniometry (ROM), stretch restricted angle (SRA) of joints, Ashworth scores at the elbow and wrist, and the Melbourne assessment of unilateral upper limb function. All measures were performed at baseline, 2 weeks after BTX-A, 6 months (end of therapy), and then 3 months after termination of the therapy. Clinical measures (muscle tone, active ROM of wrist and elbow) showed improvement in both groups. However, no significant differences emerged between groups on functional measures. Generated force decreased directly after the BTX-A injection but increased during the therapy period. The PT/OT group, however, showed a significantly higher increase in force and accuracy with therapy compared with the BTX+ therapy group. Functional rehabilitation therapies for the upper extremity increase manual isometric flexor force at the wrist and ROM, but BTX injections cause weakness and do not lead to better outcomes than therapy alone.

  17. 关于随机MAX k-SAT模型的上界研究%The Upper Bound Research for Random MAX k-SAT

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    高宗升; 许学琳

    2011-01-01

    Given a CNF formula with n variables and m = αn k -clauses, it is interesting to study the maximum number max Fk of clauses satisfied by all the assignments of the variables (MAX k -SAT). When α is large, the upper bound of fk(n,αn)= IE(maxFk) for random MAX k -SAT had been derived by the first-moment argument.A tighter upper bound (1-1/2k)αn + h(α,t)· αn is proved, which is finished also by the first-moment argument and the precision of amplification is improved. At the same time, it is found that the upper bound becomes tighter with the increase of t.%对于包含n个变量和m=αn个长度为k的子句的CNF公式,人们比较关注公式中最大可满足子句的个数max Fk(MAX k-SAT).当子句密度α比较大时,随机MAX k-SAT模型中的变量fk(n,αn)(=)(E)(max Fk)的上界可以用一阶矩方法给出.通过对一阶矩方法放缩精度的改进,得到了它的一个更紧的上界(1-1/2k)αn+h(α,t)·αn.同时,可以证明这个新的上界随着t的增大而变得更紧.

  18. Comparison of robotics, functional electrical stimulation, and motor learning methods for treatment of persistent upper extremity dysfunction after stroke: a randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCabe, Jessica; Monkiewicz, Michelle; Holcomb, John; Pundik, Svetlana; Daly, Janis J

    2015-06-01

    To compare response to upper-limb treatment using robotics plus motor learning (ML) versus functional electrical stimulation (FES) plus ML versus ML alone, according to a measure of complex functional everyday tasks for chronic, severely impaired stroke survivors. Single-blind, randomized trial. Medical center. Enrolled subjects (N=39) were >1 year postsingle stroke (attrition rate=10%; 35 completed the study). All groups received treatment 5d/wk for 5h/d (60 sessions), with unique treatment as follows: ML alone (n=11) (5h/d partial- and whole-task practice of complex functional tasks), robotics plus ML (n=12) (3.5h/d of ML and 1.5h/d of shoulder/elbow robotics), and FES plus ML (n=12) (3.5h/d of ML and 1.5h/d of FES wrist/hand coordination training). Primary measure: Arm Motor Ability Test (AMAT), with 13 complex functional tasks; secondary measure: upper-limb Fugl-Meyer coordination scale (FM). There was no significant difference found in treatment response across groups (AMAT: P≥.584; FM coordination: P≥.590). All 3 treatment groups demonstrated clinically and statistically significant improvement in response to treatment (AMAT and FM coordination: P≤.009). A group treatment paradigm of 1:3 (therapist/patient) ratio proved feasible for provision of the intensive treatment. No adverse effects. Severely impaired stroke survivors with persistent (>1y) upper-extremity dysfunction can make clinically and statistically significant gains in coordination and functional task performance in response to robotics plus ML, FES plus ML, and ML alone in an intensive and long-duration intervention; no group differences were found. Additional studies are warranted to determine the effectiveness of these methods in the clinical setting. Copyright © 2015 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Comparison between paracetamol, piroxicam, their combination, and placebo in postoperative pain management of upper limb orthopedic surgery (a randomized double blind clinical trial)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalili, Gholamreza; Salimianfard, Marzieh; Zarehzadeh, Abolghasem

    2016-01-01

    Background: Therapeutic superiority of a combination of Paracetamol and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) over either drug alone remains controversial. We evaluated the efficiency of a combination of Paracetamol and Piroxicam versus each drug alone and also placebo in the management of postoperative pain, in patients who had undergone elective upper limb orthopedic surgery under general anesthesia. Materials and Methods: A total of 100 patients were randomly divided into four groups to receive either intravenous (IV) infusion of Paracetamol, 15 mg/kg., intramuscular (IM) injection of Piroxicam 0.4 mg/kg., their combination or placebo. The pain scores were recorded at the first; second, fourth, sixth, twelfth, and 24 hours after Post Anesthesia Care Unit (PACU) admission. After the operation 0.1 mg/kg of morphine was administered, if the patient needed. Result: The means of the pain scores were 5.26 ± 1.53, 4.09 ± 0.88, 4.36 ± 1.48, and 4.11 ± 1.29, in groups A, B, C, and D, respectively, (Group A: received placebo; Group B: received both Paracetamol and Piroxicam; Group C received Piroxicam; Group D received Paracetamol). Except for differences between the mean pain scores in Groups B and D, the other differences were statistically significant (P value Piroxicam or placebo. Addition of Piroxicam to Paracetamol has not much more benefit than Paracetamol alone, in reducing pain after upper limb orthopedic surgery. PMID:27403409

  20. The Effect of Radial Extracorporeal Shock Wave Stimulation on Upper Limb Spasticity in Chronic Stroke Patients: A Single-Blind, Randomized, Placebo-Controlled Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dymarek, Robert; Taradaj, Jakub; Rosińczuk, Joanna

    2016-08-01

    The main purpose of this study was to determine the clinical, electrophysiological and thermal effects of radial extracorporeal shock wave (rESW) stimulation on upper limb muscles affected by spasticity in patients with chronic stroke. Patients included in the study were randomly assigned into the following two groups: 30 patients stimulated with active rESW (A); and 30 patients stimulated with placebo rESW (B). All patients were analyzed using the Modified Ashworth Scale (MAS) to test the spasticity levels of the elbow (E), radio carpal (RC) and fingers (FF) joints; surface electromyography (sEMG) was performed for the resting bioelectrical activity registration of the flexor carpi radialis (FCR) and flexor carpi ulnaris (FCU) muscles; and infrared thermal imaging (IRT) was used to assess the temperature distributions of the carpal flexor muscles (CFM). All assessments were performed at baseline (t0), immediately after rESW (t1) as well as 1 and 24 h following its finalization (t2 and t3). Patients treated with active rESW showed a statistically significant reduction in the MAS score for the RC joint at t1 and for the FF joints at t1, t2 and t3 (p  0.05). Applications of rESW demonstrating positive effects at reducing the level of spastic hypertonia of the upper limb muscles in patients with chronic stroke. ESW treatments should be considered as a potential anti-spastic effect to regulate vasculature.

  1. The Effectiveness and Safety of a Homeopathic Medicinal Product in Pediatric Upper Respiratory Tract Infections With Fever: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Haselen, Robert; Thinesse-Mallwitz, Manuela; Maidannyk, Vitaliy; Buskin, Stephen L; Weber, Stephan; Keller, Thomas; Burkart, Julia; Klement, Petra

    2016-01-01

    We investigated the clinical effectiveness of a homeopathic add-on therapy in a pediatric subpopulation with upper respiratory tract infections (URTI) in a randomized, controlled, multinational clinical trial. Patients received either on-demand symptomatic standard treatment (ST-group) or the same ST plus a homeopathic medication (Influcid; IFC-group) for 7 days. Outcome assessment was based on symptom and fever resolution and the Wisconsin Upper Respiratory Symptom Survey-21 (WURSS-21). A total of 261 pediatric (<12 years) patients (130 IFC-group; 131 ST-group) were recruited in Germany and the Ukraine. The IFC-group used less symptomatic medication, symptoms resolved significantly earlier (P = .0001), had higher proportions of fever-free children from day 3 onwards, and the WURSS-assessed global disease severity was significantly less (P < .0001) during the entire URTI episode. One adverse event (vomiting) was possibly related to IFC. IFC as add-on treatment in pediatric URTI reduced global disease severity, shortened symptom resolution, and was safe in use.

  2. Combined transcranial direct current stimulation and home-based occupational therapy for upper limb motor impairment following intracerebral hemorrhage: a double-blind randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mortensen, Jesper; Figlewski, Krystian; Andersen, Henning

    2016-01-01

    To investigate the combined effect of transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) and home-based occupational therapy on activities of daily living (ADL) and grip strength, in patients with upper limb motor impairment following intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). A double-blind randomized controlled trial with one-week follow-up. Patients received five consecutive days of occupational therapy at home, combined with either anodal (n = 8) or sham (n = 7) tDCS. The primary outcome was ADL performance, which was assessed with the Jebsen-Taylor test (JTT). Both groups improved JTT over time (p occupational therapy provided greater improvements in grip strength compared with occupational therapy alone. tDCS is a promising add-on intervention regarding training of upper limb motor impairment. It is well tolerated by patients and can easily be applied for home-based training. Larger studies with long-term follow-up are needed to further explore possible effects of tDCS in patients with ICH. Five consecutive days of tDCS combined with occupational therapy provided greater improvements in grip strength compared with occupational therapy alone. tDCS is well tolerated by patients and can easily be applied for home-based rehabilitation.

  3. Statistics with confidence confidence intervals and statistical guidelines

    CERN Document Server

    Altman, Douglas; Bryant, Trevor; Gardner, Stephen

    2013-01-01

    This highly popular introduction to confidence intervals has been thoroughly updated and expanded. It includes methods for using confidence intervals, with illustrative worked examples and extensive guidelines and checklists to help the novice.

  4. Probiotics for the treatment of upper and lower respiratory-tract infections in children: systematic review based on randomized clinical trials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgia Véras de Araujo

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT OBJECTIVES: Evaluate the effect of probiotics on the symptoms, duration of disease, and the occurrence of new episodes of upper and lower respiratory infections in healthy children. SOURCES: In order to identify eligible randomized controlled trials, two reviewers accessed four electronic databases [MEDLINE/PubMed, Scopus (Elsevier, Web of Science, and Cochrane (Cochrane VHL], as well as ClinicalTrials.gov until January 2015. Descriptors were determined by using the Medical Subject Headings tool, following the same search protocol. SUMMARY OF THE FINDINGS: Studies showed to be heterogeneous regarding strains of probiotics, the mode of administration, the time of use, and outcomes. The present review identified 11 peer-reviewed, randomized clinical trials, which analyzed a total of 2417 children up to 10 incomplete years of age. In the analysis of the studies, reduction in new episodes of disease was a favorable outcome for the use of probiotics in the treatment of respiratory infections in children. It is noteworthy that most of these studies were conducted in developed countries, with basic sanitation, health care, and strict, well-established and well-organized guidelines on the use of probiotics. Adverse effects were rarely reported, demonstrating probiotics to be safe. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the encouraging results - reducing new episodes of respiratory infections - the authors emphasize the need for further research, especially in developing countries, where rates of respiratory infections in children are higher when compared to the high per capita-income countries identified in this review.

  5. Random versus fixed-site sampling when monitoring relative abundance of fishes in headwater streams of the upper Colorado River basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quist, M.C.; Gerow, K.G.; Bower, M.R.; Hubert, W.A.

    2006-01-01

    Native fishes of the upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) have declined in distribution and abundance due to habitat degradation and interactions with normative fishes. Consequently, monitoring populations of both native and nonnative fishes is important for conservation of native species. We used data collected from Muddy Creek, Wyoming (2003-2004), to compare sample size estimates using a random and a fixed-site sampling design to monitor changes in catch per unit effort (CPUE) of native bluehead suckers Catostomus discobolus, flannelmouth suckers C. latipinnis, roundtail chub Gila robusta, and speckled dace Rhinichthys osculus, as well as nonnative creek chub Semotilus atromaculatus and white suckers C. commersonii. When one-pass backpack electrofishing was used, detection of 10% or 25% changes in CPUE (fish/100 m) at 60% statistical power required 50-1,000 randomly sampled reaches among species regardless of sampling design. However, use of a fixed-site sampling design with 25-50 reaches greatly enhanced the ability to detect changes in CPUE. The addition of seining did not appreciably reduce required effort. When detection of 25-50% changes in CPUE of native and nonnative fishes is acceptable, we recommend establishment of 25-50 fixed reaches sampled by one-pass electrofishing in Muddy Creek. Because Muddy Creek has habitat and fish assemblages characteristic of other headwater streams in the UCRB, our results are likely to apply to many other streams in the basin. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2006.

  6. Combined Cognitive-Strategy and Task-Specific Training Affects Cognition and Upper-Extremity Function in Subacute Stroke: An Exploratory Randomized Controlled Trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polatajko, Helene; Baum, Carolyn; Rios, Jorge; Cirone, Dianne; Doherty, Meghan; McEwen, Sara

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to estimate the effect of Cognitive Orientation to Daily Occupational Performance (CO–OP) compared with usual occupational therapy on upper-extremity movement, cognitive flexibility, and stroke impact in people less than 3 mo after stroke. An exploratory, single-blind randomized controlled trial was conducted with people referred to outpatient occupational therapy services at two rehabilitation centers. Arm movement was measured with the Action Research Arm Test, cognitive flexibility with the Delis–Kaplan Executive Function System Trail Making subtest, and stroke impact with subscales of the Stroke Impact Scale. A total of 35 participants were randomized, and 26 completed the intervention. CO–OP demonstrated measurable effects over usual care on all measures. These data provide early support for the use of CO–OP to improve performance and remediate cognitive and arm movement impairments after stroke over usual care; however, future study is warranted to confirm the effects observed in this trial. PMID:26943113

  7. Probiotics for the treatment of upper and lower respiratory-tract infections in children: systematic review based on randomized clinical trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araujo, Georgia Véras de; Oliveira Junior, Mário Henriques de; Peixoto, Décio Medeiros; Sarinho, Emanuel Sávio Cavalcanti

    2015-01-01

    Evaluate the effect of probiotics on the symptoms, duration of disease, and the occurrence of new episodes of upper and lower respiratory infections in healthy children. In order to identify eligible randomized controlled trials, two reviewers accessed four electronic databases [MEDLINE/PubMed, Scopus (Elsevier), Web of Science, and Cochrane (Cochrane VHL)], as well as ClinicalTrials.gov until January 2015. Descriptors were determined by using the Medical Subject Headings tool, following the same search protocol. Studies showed to be heterogeneous regarding strains of probiotics, the mode of administration, the time of use, and outcomes. The present review identified 11 peer-reviewed, randomized clinical trials, which analyzed a total of 2417 children up to 10 incomplete years of age. In the analysis of the studies, reduction in new episodes of disease was a favorable outcome for the use of probiotics in the treatment of respiratory infections in children. It is noteworthy that most of these studies were conducted in developed countries, with basic sanitation, health care, and strict, well-established and well-organized guidelines on the use of probiotics. Adverse effects were rarely reported, demonstrating probiotics to be safe. Despite the encouraging results - reducing new episodes of respiratory infections - the authors emphasize the need for further research, especially in developing countries, where rates of respiratory infections in children are higher when compared to the high per capita-income countries identified in this review. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

  8. Confidence and Cognitive Test Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stankov, Lazar; Lee, Jihyun

    2008-01-01

    This article examines the nature of confidence in relation to abilities, personality, and metacognition. Confidence scores were collected during the administration of Reading and Listening sections of the Test of English as a Foreign Language Internet-Based Test (TOEFL iBT) to 824 native speakers of English. Those confidence scores were correlated…

  9. Confidence and Cognitive Test Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stankov, Lazar; Lee, Jihyun

    2008-01-01

    This article examines the nature of confidence in relation to abilities, personality, and metacognition. Confidence scores were collected during the administration of Reading and Listening sections of the Test of English as a Foreign Language Internet-Based Test (TOEFL iBT) to 824 native speakers of English. Those confidence scores were correlated…

  10. Explorations in Statistics: Confidence Intervals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curran-Everett, Douglas

    2009-01-01

    Learning about statistics is a lot like learning about science: the learning is more meaningful if you can actively explore. This third installment of "Explorations in Statistics" investigates confidence intervals. A confidence interval is a range that we expect, with some level of confidence, to include the true value of a population parameter…

  11. Supraclavicular Brachial Plexus Block For Upper Limb Orthopedic Surgery: A Randomized, Double Blinded Comparison Between 0.5%Ropivacaine And 0.5% Bupivacaine.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr.Jigisha Prahladrai Badheka

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This prospective double blinded study designedwith the aim of comparing the onset, duration of sensory and motor block and analgesic effect of ropivacaine 0.5%with bupivacaine 0.5% when used in supraclavicular brachial plexus block in patients undergoing upper limb orthopedic surgeries. Materials and method: 60 patients of either sex, aged 20-66 yrs, scheduled for elective upper limb orthopedic surgeries under supraclavicular brachial plexus block, were randomly divided into two groups containing 30 patients in each. Group B received 0.5% 30ml bupivacaine and group R received 0.5% 30ml ropivacaine. Patients were observed for onset, duration of sensory and motor blockade, post-operative analgesia using visual analogue scale and complications if any. Results: In comparison to equal volume of 0.5% bupivacaine, 0.5% ropivacaine provides significant earlier onset of sensory block (9.5±2min& 7.46 ±2.54 min respectively and motor block (12.6±2.2min& 10.66±2.24 min respectively.There is statistically significant longer duration of motor block with bupivacaine (486.16±56.74as compared to ropivacaine (359±55.66 min. However duration of sensory blockade, duration of analgesia and haemodynamics were comparable in both groups. We observed convulsions in one patient in bupivacaine group which was successfully managed. No complications were encountered in ropivacaine group.Conclusion: Ropivacaine provides faster onset of sensory and motor block with less duration of motor block, equal postoperative analgesia and higher safety profile as compared to bupivacaine.

  12. Unexpected Inflammatory Effects of Intravaginal Gels (Universal Placebo Gel and Nonoxynol-9 on the Upper Female Reproductive Tract: A Randomized Crossover Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karen Smith-McCune

    Full Text Available Intravaginal anti-HIV microbicides could provide women with a self-controlled means for HIV prevention, but results from clinical trials have been largely disappointing. We postulated that unrecognized effects of intravaginal gels on the upper female reproductive tract might contribute to the lower-than-expected efficacy of HIV microbicides. Our objective was to study the effects of intravaginal gels on the immune microenvironment of the cervix and uterus. In this randomized crossover study, 27 healthy female volunteers used a nightly application of intravaginal nonoxynol-9 (N9 gel as a "failed" microbicide or the universal placebo gel (UPG as a "safe" gel (intervention cycles, or nothing (control cycle from the end of menses to the mid-luteal phase. At a specific time-point following ovulation, all participants underwent sample collection for measurements of T-cell phenotypes, gene expression, and cytokine/chemokine protein concentrations from 3 anatomic sites above the vagina: the cervical transformation zone, the endocervix and the endometrium. We used hierarchical statistical models to estimate mean (95% CI intervention effects, for N9 and UPG relative to control. Exposure to N9 gel and UPG generated a common "harm signal" that included transcriptional up-regulation of inflammatory genes chemokine (C-C motif ligand 20 (macrophage inflammatory factor-3alpha and interleukin 8 in the cervix, decreased protein concentrations of secretory leukocyte protease inhibitor, and transcriptional up-regulation of inflammatory mediators glycodelin-A and osteopontin in the endometrium. These results need to be replicated with a larger sample, but underscore the need to consider the effects of microbicide agents and gel excipients on the upper female reproductive tract in studies of vaginal microbicides.

  13. Repair versus shaving of partial-thickness articular-sided tears of the upper subscapularis tendon. A prospective randomized controlled trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    RANDELLI, PIETRO; ARRIGONI, PAOLO; ALIPRANDI, ALBERTO; SDAO, SILVANA; RAGONE, VINCENZA; D’AMBROSI, RICCARDO; RANDELLI, FILIPPO; CABITZA, PAOLO; BANFI, GIUSEPPE

    2015-01-01

    Purpose the purpose of this study was to evaluate whether treating partial-thickness articular-sided tears of the upper subscapularis (SSC) tendon with a dedicated suture anchor would result in an internal rotation strength improvement compared with simple shaving of the SSC tendon and footprint. Methods twenty-six patients with a limited SSC tendon tear (equal or inferior to the most superior centimeter) in association with a posterosuperior cuff lesion were prospectively randomized to two treatments: repair with a dedicated suture anchor versus shaving of the tendon and footprint. The patients also underwent long head of the biceps (LHB) treatment and posterosuperior cuff tear repair. In each patient the following parameters were measured both preoperatively and at a minimum follow-up of 2.5 years: strength in internal rotation in the bear-hug testing position (using a digital tensiometer), DASH score and Constant scores. MRI assessment of tendon healing was performed at the final follow-up. Results twenty of the 26 patients (76%) were reviewed after a mean follow-up time of 42 months: 11 patients had undergone SSC tendon repair and nine simple shaving. At final follow-up no significant differences were found between the repaired and shaving group in strength in internal rotation (9.5 ± 3.8 kg versus 10.3±5.4 kg; p=0.7). The DASH score and Constant score also failed to show significant differences between the two groups. Furthermore, no significant difference in SSC tendon healing rate was observed on MRI evaluation. Conclusions partial-thickness articular-sided tear of the upper SSC tendon in association with a posterosuperior rotator cuff repair and LHB treatment, when limited to the superior centimeter of the SSC tendon, shows a comparable performance in terms of strength in internal rotation either after simple shaving or a tendon-to-bone repair. Level of evidence Level II, prospective comparative study. PMID:26889466

  14. Mathematical Foundations for a Theory of Confidence Structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balch, Michael Scott

    2012-10-01

    This paper introduces a new mathematical object: the confidence structure. A confidence structure represents inferential uncertainty in an unknown parameter by defining a belief function whose output is commensurate with Neyman-Pearson confidence. Confidence structures on a group of input variables can be propagated through a function to obtain a valid confidence structure on the output of that function. The theory of confidence structures is created by enhancing the extant theory of confidence distributions with the mathematical generality of Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Mathematical proofs grounded in random set theory demonstrate the operative properties of confidence structures. The result is a new theory which achieves the holistic goals of Bayesian inference while maintaining the empirical rigor of frequentist inference.

  15. Mathematical Foundations for a Theory of Confidence Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balch, Michael Scott

    2012-01-01

    This paper introduces a new mathematical object: the confidence structure. A confidence structure represents inferential uncertainty in an unknown parameter by defining a belief function whose output is commensurate with Neyman-Pearson confidence. Confidence structures on a group of input variables can be propagated through a function to obtain a valid confidence structure on the output of that function. The theory of confidence structures is created by enhancing the extant theory of confidence distributions with the mathematical generality of Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Mathematical proofs grounded in random set theory demonstrate the operative properties of confidence structures. The result is a new theory which achieves the holistic goals of Bayesian inference while maintaining the empirical rigor of frequentist inference. PMID:25190904

  16. Low-dose acetylsalicylic acid use and the risk of upper gastrointestinal bleeding: a meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials and observational studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valkhoff, Vera E; Sturkenboom, Miriam C J M; Hill, Catherine; Veldhuyzen van Zanten, Sander; Kuipers, Ernst J

    2013-03-01

    Low-dose acetylsalicylic acid (LDA, 75 mg/day to 325 mg/day) is recommended for primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular events, but has been linked to an increased risk of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). To analyze the magnitude of effect of LDA use on UGIB risk. The PubMed and Embase databases were searched for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) reporting UGIB rates in individuals receiving LDA, and observational studies of LDA use in patients with UGIB. Studies were pooled for analysis of UGIB rates. Eighteen studies were included. Seven RCTs reported UGIB rates in individuals randomly assigned to receive LDA (n=22,901) or placebo (n=22,923). Ten case-control studies analyzed LDA use in patients with UGIB (n=10,816) and controls without UGIB (n=30,519); one cohort study reported 207 UGIB cases treated with LDA only. All studies found LDA use to be associated with an increased risk of UGIB. The mean number of extra UGIB cases associated with LDA use in the RCTs was 1.2 per 1000 patients per year (95% CI 0.7 to 1.8). The number needed to harm was 816 (95% CI 560 to 1500) for RCTs and 819 (95% CI 617 to 1119) for observational studies. Meta-analysis of RCT data showed that LDA use was associated with a 50% increase in UGIB risk (OR 1.5 [95% CI 1.2 to 1.8]). UGIB risk was most pronounced in observational studies (OR 3.1 [95% CI 2.5 to 3.7]). LDA use was associated with an increased risk of UGIB.

  17. US outlook and German confidence : does the confidence channel work?

    OpenAIRE

    Horn, Gustav Adolf

    2003-01-01

    One channel of business cycle shock transmission which gained attraction only recently is the confidence channel. The aim of the paper is to find out whether the confidence channel is actually working between the US and Germany. This is analysed using times series methods. In contrast to other studies the direct informational content of leading US indicators for German producer confidence and the significance of asymmetric reactions is tested. The results show that there is a relationship bet...

  18. Comparison of hemostasis using bipolar hemostatic forceps with hemostasis by endoscopic hemoclipping for nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding in a prospective non-randomized trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kataoka, Mikinori; Kawai, Takashi; Hayama, Yasutaka; Yamamoto, Kei; Nonaka, Masaya; Aoki, Takaya; Yagi, Kenji; Fukuzawa, Mari; Fukuzawa, Masakatsu; Moriyasu, Fuminori

    2013-08-01

    We previously reported on the safety and efficacy of bipolar hemostatic forceps for treating nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal (UGI) bleeding. However, no prospective or randomized studies have evaluated the efficacy of bipolar hemostatic forceps. The aim of this study was to evaluate the hemostatic efficacy of using bipolar hemostatic forceps compared with the hemostatic efficacy of the commonly used method of endoscopic hemoclipping for treating nonvariceal UGI bleeding. A total of 50 patients who required endoscopic hemostasis for UGI bleeding were divided into two groups: those who underwent endoscopic hemostasis using bipolar hemostatic forceps (Group I) and those who underwent endoscopic hemostasis by endoscopic hemoclipping (Group II). We compared the two groups in terms of hemostasis success rate and time required to achieve hemostasis and stop recurrent bleeding. All (100 %) of 27 patients in Group I and 18 (78.2 %) of 23 patients in Group II were successfully treated using bipolar hemostatic forceps or by endoscopic hemoclipping alone, respectively, indicating a significantly higher success rate for Group I than for Group II (p bleeding. Bipolar hemostatic forceps was more effective than endoscopic hemoclipping for treating nonvariceal UGI bleeding.

  19. Efficacy of Tramadol or Dexamethasone as an Adjuvant to Levobupivacaine in Ultrasound-guided Supraclavicular Plexus Block for Upper Limb Surgery: A Randomized Double-blinded Controlled Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raj, S Aravind; Singh, Dewan Roshan; Charles, S Antony John; Krishnaveni, N

    2017-01-01

    To evaluate the efficacy of tramadol or dexamethasone as an adjuvant to levobupivacaine in ultrasound-guided supraclavicular brachial plexus block in terms of onset time of complete sensory and motor blockade, duration of motor blockade, duration of analgesia, and any complication. This was a randomized controlled trial conducted in the Department of Anesthesiology, a tertiary care hospital. Sixty consecutive patients of the American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status Class I and II who were posted for upper limb surgeries were recruited. Patients were divided into two groups of thirty patients each. Group T (tramadol) received 20 ml of 0.5% levobupivacaine with 100 mg tramadol, and Group D (dexamethasone) received 20 ml of 0.5% levobupivacaine with 8 mg dexamethasone under ultrasound guidance. Sensory and motor block assessment was done every 2 min until the development of complete sensory and motor block till 45 min. Verbal numerical rating scale score was assessed in postoperative ward at regular intervals. Patients were followed up to check for any residual neurological deficits. There was no statistical difference in demographic data between the two groups. The onset time of sensory and motor blockade shows no significant difference between groups. The mean time duration of motor blockade in Group T was 764.63 min and for Group D was 1150.27 min which was statistically significant (P tramadol and provides excellent postoperative pain-free period without any neurological deficits.

  20. Influence of correspondence noise and spatial scaling on the upper limit for spatial displacement in fully-coherent random-dot kinematogram stimuli.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Srimant P Tripathy

    Full Text Available Correspondence noise is a major factor limiting direction discrimination performance in random-dot kinematograms. In the current study we investigated the influence of correspondence noise on Dmax, which is the upper limit for the spatial displacement of the dots for which coherent motion is still perceived. Human direction discrimination performance was measured, using 2-frame kinematograms having leftward/rightward motion, over a 200-fold range of dot-densities and a four-fold range of dot displacements. From this data Dmax was estimated for the different dot densities tested. A model was proposed to evaluate the correspondence noise in the stimulus. This model summed the outputs of a set of elementary Reichardt-type local detectors that had receptive fields tiling the stimulus and were tuned to the two directions of motion in the stimulus. A key assumption of the model was that the local detectors would have the radius of their catchment areas scaled with the displacement that they were tuned to detect; the scaling factor k linking the radius to the displacement was the only free parameter in the model and a single value of k was used to fit all of the psychophysical data collected. This minimal, correspondence-noise based model was able to account for 91% of the variability in the human performance across all of the conditions tested. The results highlight the importance of correspondence noise in constraining the largest displacement that can be detected.

  1. Quantifying uncertainty in modelled estimates of annual maximum precipitation: confidence intervals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panagoulia, Dionysia; Economou, Polychronis; Caroni, Chrys

    2016-04-01

    The possible nonstationarity of the GEV distribution fitted to annual maximum precipitation under climate change is a topic of active investigation. Of particular significance is how best to construct confidence intervals for items of interest arising from stationary/nonstationary GEV models.We are usually not only interested in parameter estimates but also in quantiles of the GEV distribution and it might be expected that estimates of extreme upper quantiles are far from being normally distributed even for moderate sample sizes.Therefore, we consider constructing confidence intervals for all quantities of interest by bootstrap methods based on resampling techniques. To this end, we examined three bootstrapping approaches to constructing confidence intervals for parameters and quantiles: random-t resampling, fixed-t resampling and the parametric bootstrap. Each approach was used in combination with the normal approximation method, percentile method, basic bootstrap method and bias-corrected method for constructing confidence intervals. We found that all the confidence intervals for the stationary model parameters have similar coverage and mean length. Confidence intervals for the more extreme quantiles tend to become very wide for all bootstrap methods. For nonstationary GEV models with linear time dependence of location or log-linear time dependence of scale, confidence interval coverage probabilities are reasonably accurate for the parameters. For the extreme percentiles, the bias-corrected and accelerated method is best overall, and the fixed-t method also has good average coverage probabilities. Reference: Panagoulia D., Economou P. and Caroni C., Stationary and non-stationary GEV modeling of extreme precipitation over a mountainous area under climate change, Environmetrics, 25 (1), 29-43, 2014.

  2. Empirical Likelihood Ratio Confidence Interval for Positively Associated Series

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jun-jian Zhang

    2007-01-01

    Empirical likelihood is discussed by using the blockwise technique for strongly stationary,positively associated random variables.Our results show that the statistics is asymptotically chi-square distributed and the corresponding confidence interval can be constructed.

  3. Upper Endoscopy

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Clinical Topics / Procedures F - Z / Upper Endoscopy (EGD) Upper Endoscopy (EGD) The Latest Practice Guidelines Technology Reviews ... the Safety of Your Endoscopic Procedure Brochure Understanding Upper Endoscopy Brochure Make the Best Choice for Your ...

  4. A randomized controlled study comparing omeprazole and cimetidine for the prophylaxis of stress-related upper gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Bo-lin; Li, Bing; Zhang, Xiang; Fei, Zhou; Hu, Shi-jie; Lin, Wei; Gao, Da-kuan; Zhang, Li

    2013-01-01

    Patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) are at high risk for severe stress-related upper gastrointestinal (UGI) bleeding, which is predictive of higher mortality. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of omeprazole and cimetidine compared with a placebo in the prevention and management of stress-related UGI bleeding in patients with ICH. In a single-center, randomized, placebo-controlled study, 184 surgically treated patients with CT-proven ICH within 72 hours of ictus and negative results for gastric occult blood testing were included. Of these patients, 165 who were qualified upon further evaluation were randomized into 3 groups: 58 patients received 40 mg intravenous omeprazole every 12 hours, 54 patients received 300 mg intravenous cimetidine every 6 hours, and 53 patients received a placebo. Patients whose gastric occult blood tests were positive at admission (n = 70) and during/after the prophylaxis procedure (n = 48) were treated with high-dose omeprazole at 80 mg bolus plus 8 mg/hr infusion for 3 days, followed by 40 mg intravenous omeprazole every 12 hours for 7 days. Of the 165 assessable patients, stress-related UGI bleeding occurred in 9 (15.5%) in the omeprazole group compared with 15 patients (27.8%) in the cimetidine group and 24 patients (45.3%) in the placebo group (p = 0.003). The occurrence of UGI bleeding was significantly related to death (p = 0.022). Nosocomial pneumonia occurred in 14 patients (24.1%) receiving omeprazole, 12 (22.2%) receiving cimetidine, and 8 (15.1%) receiving placebo (p > 0.05). In patients with UGI bleeding in which high-dose omeprazole was initiated, UGI bleeding arrested within the first 3 days in 103 patients (87.3%). Omeprazole significantly reduced the morbidity of stress-related UGI bleeding in patients with ICH due to its effective prophylactic effect without increasing the risk of nosocomial pneumonia, but it did not reduce the 1-month mortality or ICU stay. Further evaluation of high

  5. Influence of Inter-Training Intervals on Intermanual Transfer Effects in Upper-Limb Prosthesis Training: A Randomized Pre-Posttest Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sietske Romkema

    Full Text Available Improvement in prosthetic training using intermanual transfer (the transfer of motor skills from the trained, “unaffected” hand to the untrained, “affected” hand has been shown in previous studies. The aim of this study is to determine the influence of the inter-training interval on the magnitude of the intermanual transfer effects. This was done using a mechanistic, randomized, single-blinded pretest-posttest design. Sixty-four able-bodied, right-handed participants were randomly assigned to the Short and Long Interval Training Groups and the Short and Long Interval Control Groups. The Short and Long Interval Training Groups used a prosthesis simulator in their training program. The Short and Long Interval Control Groups executed a sham training program, that is, a dummy training program in which the same muscles were trained as with the prosthesis simulator. The Short Interval Training Group and the Short Interval Control Groups trained on consecutive days, while the Long Interval Training Group and Long Interval Control Group trained twice a week. To determine the improvement in skills, a test was administered before, immediately after, and at two points in time after the training. Training was performed with the “unaffected” arm; tests were performed with the “affected” arm. The outcome measurements were: the movement time (the time from the beginning of the movement until completion of the task; the duration of maximum hand opening, (the opening of the prosthetic hand while grasping an object; and the grip-force control (the error from the required grip-force during a tracking task. Intermanual transfer was found in movement times, but not in hand opening or grip-force control. The length of the inter-training interval did not affect the magnitude of intermanual transfer effects. No difference in the intermanual transfer effect in upper-limb prosthesis training was found for training on a daily basis as compared to training

  6. Observation and execution of upper-limb movements as a tool for rehabilitation of motor deficits in paretic stroke patients: protocol of a randomized clinical trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ertelt Denis

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Evidence exist that motor observation activates the same cortical motor areas that are involved in the performance of the observed actions. The so called “mirror neuron system” has been proposed to be responsible for this phenomenon. We employ this neural system and its capability to re-enact stored motor representations as a tool for rehabilitating motor control. In our new neurorehabilitative schema (videotherapy we combine observation of daily actions with concomitant physical training of the observed actions focusing on the upper limbs. Following a pilot study in chronic patients in an ambulatory setting, we currently designed a new multicenter clinical study dedicated to patients in the sub-acute state after stroke using a home-based self-induced training. Within our protocol we assess 1 the capability of action observation to elicit rehabilitational effects in the motor system, and 2 the capacity of this schema to be performed by patients without assistance from a physiotherapist. The results of this study would be of high health and economical relevance. Methods/design A controlled, randomized, multicenter, paralleled, 6 month follow-up study will be conducted on three groups of patients: one group will be given the experimental treatment whereas the other two will participate in control treatments. All patients will undergo their usual rehabilitative treatment beside participation in the study. The experimental condition consists in the observation and immediate imitation of common daily hand and arm actions. The two parallel control groups are a placebo group and a group receiving usual rehabilitation without any trial-related treatment. Trial randomization is provided via external data management. The primary efficacy endpoint is the improvement of the experimental group in a standardized motor function test (Wolf Motor Function Test relative to control groups. Further assessments refer to subjective and

  7. Confidence scores for prediction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerds, Thomas Alexander; van de Wiel, MA

    2011-01-01

    modelling strategy is applied to different training sets. For each modelling strategy we estimate a confidence score based on the same repeated bootstraps. A new decomposition of the expected Brier score is obtained, as well as the estimates of population average confidence scores. The latter can be used...... to distinguish rival prediction models with similar prediction performances. Furthermore, on the subject level a confidence score may provide useful supplementary information for new patients who want to base a medical decision on predicted risk. The ideas are illustrated and discussed using data from cancer...

  8. APPLICATION OF ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE ESTIMATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valeriy S. Ayzatullen

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The socio-economic category of “trust” is studied in the article. The analysis of the existing views about the term “trust” was conducted. A model of the interaction of “Power - Business - People”, using the concept of “trust”, was made. The application and the structure of confidence estimations in economy and politics are studied. The accumulated experience of application of confidence estimations in the macroeconomics of the major countries of the world was showed. The current weaknesses of the confidence indexes are reflected.

  9. Feature Augmentation for Learning Confidence Measure in Stereo Matching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sunok; Min, Dongbo; Kim, Seungryong; Sohn, Kwanghoon

    2017-09-08

    Confidence estimation is essential for refining stereo matching results through a post-processing step. This problem has recently been studied using a learning-based approach, which demonstrates a substantial improvement on conventional simple non-learning based methods. However, the formulation of learning-based methods that individually estimates the confidence of each pixel disregards spatial coherency that might exist in the confidence map, thus providing a limited performance under challenging conditions. Our key observation is that the confidence features and resulting confidence maps are smoothly varying in the spatial domain, and highly correlated within the local regions of an image. We present a new approach that imposes spatial consistency on the confidence estimation. Specifically, a set of robust confidence features is extracted from each superpixel decomposed using the Gaussian mixture model (GMM), and then these features are concatenated with pixel-level confidence features. The features are then enhanced through adaptive filtering in the feature domain. In addition, the resulting confidence map, estimated using the confidence features with a random regression forest, is further improved through K-nearest neighbor (K-NN) based aggregation scheme on both pixel-and superpixel-level. To validate the proposed confidence estimation scheme, we employ cost modulation or ground control points (GCPs) based optimization in stereo matching. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art approaches on various benchmarks including challenging outdoor scenes.

  10. Confidence and the business cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Sylvain Leduc

    2010-01-01

    The idea that business cycle fluctuations may stem partly from changes in consumer and business confidence is controversial. One way to test the idea is to use professional economic forecasts to measure confidence at specific points in time and correlate the results with future economic activity. Such an analysis suggests that changes in expectations regarding future economic performance are important drivers of economic fluctuations. Moreover, periods of heightened optimism are followed by a...

  11. Regaining confidence in confidence intervals for the mean treatment effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Gorman, Thomas W

    2014-09-28

    In many experiments, it is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of a treatment by comparing the responses of two groups of subjects. This evaluation is often performed by using a confidence interval for the difference between the population means. To compute the limits of this confidence interval, researchers usually use the pooled t formulas, which are derived by assuming normally distributed errors. When the normality assumption does not seem reasonable, the researcher may have little confidence in the confidence interval because the actual one-sided coverage probability may not be close to the nominal coverage probability. This problem can be avoided by using the Robbins-Monro iterative search method to calculate the limits. One problem with this iterative procedure is that it is not clear when the procedure produces a sufficiently accurate estimate of a limit. In this paper, we describe a multiple search method that allows the user to specify the accuracy of the limits. We also give guidance concerning the number of iterations that would typically be needed to achieve a specified accuracy. This multiple iterative search method will produce limits for one-sided and two-sided confidence intervals that maintain their coverage probabilities with non-normal distributions.

  12. Evaluation of the immediate effect of acupuncture on pain, cervical range of motion and electromyographic activity of the upper trapezius muscle in patients with nonspecific neck pain: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    Background Nonspecific neck pain can cause considerable suffering, possible disability and reductions in quality of life and productivity. The aim of the proposed study is to evaluate the immediate effect of acupuncture on pain, cervical range of motion and electromyographic activity of the upper trapezius muscle in patients with nonspecific neck pain. Methods/Design A total of 12 patients with nonspecific neck pain and 12 healthy subjects will be enrolled in a randomized, single-blind crosso...

  13. Sinonasal inhalation of tobramycin vibrating aerosol in cystic fibrosis patients with upper airway Pseudomonas aeruginosa colonization: results of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled pilot study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mainz JG

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Jochen G Mainz,1 Katja Schädlich,1 Claudia Schien,1 Ruth Michl,1 Petra Schelhorn-Neise,2 Assen Koitschev,3 Christiane Koitschev,4 Peter M Keller,5 Joachim Riethmüller,6 Baerbel Wiedemann,7 James F Beck1 1Cystic Fibrosis Centre, Department of Pediatrics, Jena University Hospital, Jena, Germany; 2Otorhinolaryngology Department, Jena University Hospital, Jena, Germany; 3Otorhinolaryngology Department, Klinikum Stuttgart, Germany; 4Otorhinolaryngology Department, University Hospital, Tübingen, Germany; 5Microbiology, Jena University Hospital, Jena, Germany; 6University Hospital, Pediatric CF-Centre, Tübingen, Germany; 7Technical University, Biometrics, Dresden, Germany Rationale: In cystic fibrosis (CF, the paranasal sinuses are sites of first and persistent colonization by pathogens such as Pseudomonas aeruginosa. Pathogens subsequently descend to the lower airways, with P. aeruginosa remaining the primary cause of premature death in patients with the inherited disease. Unlike conventional aerosols, vibrating aerosols applied with the PARI Sinus™ nebulizer deposit drugs into the paranasal sinuses. This trial assessed the effects of vibrating sinonasal inhalation of the antibiotic tobramycin in CF patients positive for P. aeruginosa in nasal lavage. Objectives: To evaluate the effects of sinonasal inhalation of tobramycin on P. aeruginosa quantification in nasal lavage; and on patient quality of life, measured with the Sino-Nasal Outcome Test (SNOT-20, and otologic and renal safety and tolerability. Methods: Patients were randomized to inhalation of tobramycin (80 mg/2 mL or placebo (2 mL isotonic saline once daily (4 minutes/nostril with the PARI Sinus™ nebulizer over 28 days, with all patients eligible for a subsequent course of open-label inhalation of tobramycin for 28 days. Nasal lavage was obtained before starting and 2 days after the end of each treatment period by rinsing each nostril with 10 mL of isotonic saline. Results: Nine

  14. Increasing the Confidence in Student's $t$ Interval

    OpenAIRE

    Goutis, Constantinos; Casella, George

    1992-01-01

    The usual confidence interval, based on Student's $t$ distribution, has conditional confidence that is larger than the nominal confidence level. Although this fact is known, along with the fact that increased conditional confidence can be used to improve a confidence assertion, the confidence assertion of Student's $t$ interval has never been critically examined. We do so here, and construct a confidence estimator that allows uniformly higher confidence in the interval and is closer (than $1 ...

  15. Increasing the Confidence in Student's $t$ Interval

    OpenAIRE

    Goutis, Constantinos; Casella, George

    1992-01-01

    The usual confidence interval, based on Student's $t$ distribution, has conditional confidence that is larger than the nominal confidence level. Although this fact is known, along with the fact that increased conditional confidence can be used to improve a confidence assertion, the confidence assertion of Student's $t$ interval has never been critically examined. We do so here, and construct a confidence estimator that allows uniformly higher confidence in the interval and is closer (than $1 ...

  16. Professional confidence: a concept analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, Kathlyn; Middleton, Lyn; Uys, Leana

    2012-03-01

    Professional confidence is a concept that is frequently used and or implied in occupational therapy literature, but often without specifying its meaning. Rodgers's Model of Concept Analysis was used to analyse the term "professional confidence". Published research obtained from a federated search in four health sciences databases was used to inform the concept analysis. The definitions, attributes, antecedents, and consequences of professional confidence as evidenced in the literature are discussed. Surrogate terms and related concepts are identified, and a model case of the concept provided. Based on the analysis, professional confidence can be described as a dynamic, maturing personal belief held by a professional or student. This includes an understanding of and a belief in the role, scope of practice, and significance of the profession, and is based on their capacity to competently fulfil these expectations, fostered through a process of affirming experiences. Developing and fostering professional confidence should be nurtured and valued to the same extent as professional competence, as the former underpins the latter, and both are linked to professional identity.

  17. Setting confidence intervals in coincidence search analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Baggio, L; Baggio, Lucio; Prodi, Giovanni A.

    2003-01-01

    The main technique that has been used to estimate the rate of gravitational wave (gw) bursts is to search for coincidence among times of arrival of candidate events in different detectors. Coincidences are modeled as a (possibly non-stationary) random time series background with gw events embedded in it, at random times but constant average rate. It is critical to test whether the statistics of the coincidence counts is Poisson, because the counts in a single detector often are not. At some point a number of parameters are tuned to increase the chance of detection by reducing the expected background: source direction, epoch vetoes based on sensitivity, goodness-of-fit thresholds, etc. Therefore, the significance of the confidence intervals itself has to be renormalized. This review is an insight of the state-of-the-art methods employed in the recent search performed by the International Gravitational Event Collaboration for the worldwide network of resonant bar detectors.

  18. Targeting Low Career Confidence Using the Career Planning Confidence Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAuliffe, Garrett; Jurgens, Jill C.; Pickering, Worth; Calliotte, James; Macera, Anthony; Zerwas, Steven

    2006-01-01

    The authors describe the development and validation of a test of career planning confidence that makes possible the targeting of specific problem issues in employment counseling. The scale, developed using a rational process and the authors' experience with clients, was tested for criterion-related validity against 2 other measures. The scale…

  19. The fallacy of placing confidence in confidence intervals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morey, Richard D.; Hoekstra, Rink; Rouder, Jeffrey N.; Lee, Michael D.; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2016-01-01

    Interval estimates – estimates of parameters that include an allowance for sampling uncertainty – have long been touted as a key component of statistical analyses. There are several kinds of interval estimates, but the most popular are confidence intervals (CIs): intervals that contain the true

  20. The fallacy of placing confidence in confidence intervals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morey, R.D.; Hoekstra, R.; Rouder, J.N.; Lee, M.D.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

    Interval estimates – estimates of parameters that include an allowance for sampling uncertainty – have long been touted as a key component of statistical analyses. There are several kinds of interval estimates, but the most popular are confidence intervals (CIs): intervals that contain the true

  1. Minimax confidence intervals in geomagnetism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stark, Philip B.

    1992-01-01

    The present paper uses theory of Donoho (1989) to find lower bounds on the lengths of optimally short fixed-length confidence intervals (minimax confidence intervals) for Gauss coefficients of the field of degree 1-12 using the heat flow constraint. The bounds on optimal minimax intervals are about 40 percent shorter than Backus' intervals: no procedure for producing fixed-length confidence intervals, linear or nonlinear, can give intervals shorter than about 60 percent the length of Backus' in this problem. While both methods rigorously account for the fact that core field models are infinite-dimensional, the application of the techniques to the geomagnetic problem involves approximations and counterfactual assumptions about the data errors, and so these results are likely to be extremely optimistic estimates of the actual uncertainty in Gauss coefficients.

  2. Upper Endoscopy

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Procedure Brochure Understanding Upper Endoscopy Brochure Make the Best Choice for Your Endoscopic Procedure Brochure Members-only ... Procedure Brochure Understanding Upper Endoscopy Brochure Make the Best Choice for Your Endoscopic Procedure Brochure View more ...

  3. Upper Endoscopy

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Endoscopic Submucosal Dissection (ESD) Endoscopic Ultrasound (EUS) Procedures F - Z GI Bleeding Manometry Photodynamic Therapy (PDT) Polypectomy ... Gastrointestinal Glossary of Terms Home / Clinical Topics / Procedures F - Z / Upper Endoscopy (EGD) Upper Endoscopy (EGD) The ...

  4. Upper Endoscopy

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Upper Endoscopy (EGD) Upper Endoscopy (EGD) The Latest Practice Guidelines Technology Reviews Articles Videos Events & Products Ensuring the Safety of Your Endoscopic Procedure Brochure Understanding Upper Endoscopy Brochure Make the Best Choice for Your Endoscopic Procedure Brochure Members-only ...

  5. Robust misinterpretation of confidence intervals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoekstra, Rink; Morey, Richard; Rouder, Jeffrey N.; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2014-01-01

    Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is undoubtedly the most common inferential technique used to justify claims in the social sciences. However, even staunch defenders of NHST agree that its outcomes are often misinterpreted. Confidence intervals (CIs) have frequently been proposed as a more

  6. Robust misinterpretation of confidence intervals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoekstra, R.; Morey, R.D.; Rouder, J.N.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

    2014-01-01

    Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is undoubtedly the most common inferential technique used to justify claims in the social sciences. However, even staunch defenders of NHST agree that its outcomes are often misinterpreted. Confidence intervals (CIs) have frequently been proposed as a more

  7. Word Spotting Based on a posterior Measure of Keyword Confidence

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郝杰; 李星

    2002-01-01

    In this paper, an approach of keyword confidence estimation is developed that well combines acoustic layer scores and syllable-based statistical language model (LM) scores.An a posteriori (AP) confidence measure and its forward-backward calculating algorithm are deduced. A zero false alarm (ZFA) assumption is proposed for evaluating relative confidence measures by word spotting task. In a word spotting experiment with a vocabulary of 240keywords, the keyword accuracy under the AP measure is above 94%, which well approaches its theoretical upper limit. In addition, a syllable lattice Hidden Markov Model (SLHMM) is formulated and a unified view of confidence estimation, word spotting, optimal path search,and N-best syllable re-scoring is presented. The proposed AP measure can be easily applied to various speech recognition systems as well.

  8. Comparison between Steroid Injection and Stretching Exercise on the Scalene of Patients with Upper Extremity Paresthesia: Randomized Cross-Over Study

    OpenAIRE

    Kim, Yong Wook; Yoon, Seo Yeon; Park, Yongbum; Chang, Won Hyuk; Lee, Sang Chul

    2016-01-01

    Purpose To compare the therapeutic effects on upper extremity paresthesia of intra-muscular steroid injections into the scalene muscle with those of stretching exercise only. Materials and Methods Twenty patients with upper extremity paresthesia who met the criteria were recruited to participate in this single-blind, crossover study. Fourteen of 20 patients were female. The average age was 45.0±10.5 years and duration of symptom was 12.2±8.7 months. Each participant completed one injection an...

  9. Botulinum toxin-a in children with congenital spastic hemiplegia does not improve upper extremity motor-related function over rehabilitation alone: a randomized controlled trial.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rameckers, E.A.A.; Speth, L.A.; Duysens, J.E.J.; Vles, J.S.; Smits-Engelsman, B.C.M.

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Rehabilitation of the upper extremity in children with hemiplegic cerebral palsy has not been compared to the same intensity of therapy combined with injected botulinum toxin (BTX). OBJECTIVE: To measure the short-term (2 weeks) and long-term (6 and 9 months) effects of a standardized

  10. Comparison between paracetamol, piroxicam, their combination, and placebo in postoperative pain management of upper limb orthopedic surgery (a randomized double blind clinical trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gholamreza Khalili

    2016-01-01

    Conclusion: IV infusion of 15 mg/kg Paracetamol used as a preventive may provide effective analgesia in comparison with IM 0.4 mg/kg Piroxicam or placebo. Addition of Piroxicam to Paracetamol has not much more benefit than Paracetamol alone, in reducing pain after upper limb orthopedic surgery.

  11. Nurse-Led Follow-Up at Home vs. Conventional Medical Outpatient Clinic Follow-Up in Patients With Incurable Upper Gastrointestinal Cancer: A Randomized Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.J. Uitdehaag (Madeleen); P.G. van Putten (Paul); C.H.J. van Eijck (Casper); E.M.L. Verschuur (Els); A. van der Gaast (Ate); C.J. Pek (Chulja); C.C.D. van der Rijt (Carin); R.A. de Man (Robert); E.W. Steyerberg (Ewout); C. Laheij (Claudia); P.D. Siersema (Peter); M.C.W. Spaander (Manon); E.J. Kuipers (Ernst)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractContext: Upper gastrointestinal cancer is associated with a poor prognosis. The multidimensional problems of incurable patients require close monitoring and frequent support, which cannot sufficiently be provided during conventional one to two month follow-up visits to the outpatient cli

  12. Alan Greenspan, the confidence strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edwin Le Heron

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available To evaluate the Greenspan era, we nevertheless need to address three questions: Is his success due to talent or just luck? Does he have a system of monetary policy or is he himself the system? What will be his legacy? Greenspan was certainly lucky, but he was also clairvoyant. Above all, he has developed a profoundly original monetary policy. His confidence strategy is clearly opposed to the credibility strategy developed in central banks and the academic milieu after 1980, but also inflation targeting, which today constitutes the mainstream monetary policy regime. The question of his legacy seems more nuanced. However, Greenspan will remain 'for a considerable period of time' a highly heterodox and original central banker. His political vision, his perception of an uncertain world, his pragmatism and his openness form the structure of a powerful alternative system, the confidence strategy, which will leave its mark on the history of monetary policy.

  13. Self-Confidence & Social Interactions

    OpenAIRE

    Bénabou, Roland; Tirole, Jean

    2000-01-01

    This paper studies the interactions between an individual's self-esteem and his social environment - in the workplace, at school, and in personal relationships. Because a person generally has only imperfect knowledge of his own abilities, people who derive benefits from his performance (parent, spouse, friend, teacher, manager, etc.) have incentives to manipulate his self--confidence. We first study situations where an informed principal chooses an incentive structure, such as offering paymen...

  14. Confidence-Based Feature Acquisition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagstaff, Kiri L.; desJardins, Marie; MacGlashan, James

    2010-01-01

    Confidence-based Feature Acquisition (CFA) is a novel, supervised learning method for acquiring missing feature values when there is missing data at both training (learning) and test (deployment) time. To train a machine learning classifier, data is encoded with a series of input features describing each item. In some applications, the training data may have missing values for some of the features, which can be acquired at a given cost. A relevant JPL example is that of the Mars rover exploration in which the features are obtained from a variety of different instruments, with different power consumption and integration time costs. The challenge is to decide which features will lead to increased classification performance and are therefore worth acquiring (paying the cost). To solve this problem, CFA, which is made up of two algorithms (CFA-train and CFA-predict), has been designed to greedily minimize total acquisition cost (during training and testing) while aiming for a specific accuracy level (specified as a confidence threshold). With this method, it is assumed that there is a nonempty subset of features that are free; that is, every instance in the data set includes these features initially for zero cost. It is also assumed that the feature acquisition (FA) cost associated with each feature is known in advance, and that the FA cost for a given feature is the same for all instances. Finally, CFA requires that the base-level classifiers produce not only a classification, but also a confidence (or posterior probability).

  15. Effectiveness of a specific manual approach to the suboccipital region in patients with chronic mechanical neck pain and rotation deficit in the upper cervical spine: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González Rueda, Vanessa; López de Celis, Carlos; Barra López, Martín Eusebio; Carrasco Uribarren, Andoni; Castillo Tomás, Sara; Hidalgo García, Cesar

    2017-09-05

    Mechanical neck pain is a highly prevalent problem in primary healthcare settings. Many of these patients have restricted mobility of the cervical spine. Several manual techniques have been recommended for restoring cervical mobility, but their effectiveness in these patients is unknown. The aim of the present study is to compare the effectiveness of two types of specific techniques of the upper neck region: the pressure maintained suboccipital inhibition technique (PMSIT) and the translatory dorsal glide mobilization (TDGM) C0-C1 technique, as adjuncts to a protocolized physiotherapy treatment of the neck region in subjects with chronic mechanical neck pain and rotation deficit in the upper cervical spine. A randomized, prospective, double-blind (patient and evaluator) clinical trial. The participants (n = 78) will be randomly distributed into three groups. The Control Group will receive a protocolized treatment for 3 weeks, the Mobilization Group will receive the same protocolized treatment and 6 sessions (2 per week) of the TDGM C0-C1 technique, and the Pressure Group will receive the same protocolized treatment and 6 sessions (2 per week) of the PMSIT technique. The intensity of pain (VAS), neck disability (NDI), the cervical range of motion (CROM), headache intensity (HIT-6) and the rating of clinical change (GROC scale) will be measured. The measurements will be performed at baseline, post-treatment and 3 months after the end of treatment, by the same physiotherapist blinded to the group assigned to the subject. We believe that an approach including manual treatment to upper cervical dysfunction will be more effective in these patients. Furthermore, the PMSIT technique acts mostly on the musculature, while the TDGM technique acts on the joint. We expect to clarify which component is more effective in improving the upper cervical mobility. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02832232 . Registered on July 13th, 2016.

  16. Upper Endoscopy

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Upper Endoscopy (EGD) Quality & Safety GIQuIC Registry Infection Control Privileging & Credentialing Quality Indicators Education & Meetings Advanced Education & Training ARIA Industry ...

  17. Evaluation of the Immediate Effect of Auricular Acupuncture on Pain and Electromyographic Activity of the Upper Trapezius Muscle in Patients with Nonspecific Neck Pain: A Randomized, Single-Blinded, Sham-Controlled, Crossover Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andréia Cristina de Oliveira Silva

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. The aim of the present study was to assess the immediate effects of auricular acupuncture (AA on the electromyographic (EMG activity of the upper trapezius muscle and pain in nonspecific neck pain (NS-NP patients. Twelve patients with NS-NP (NS-NP group and 12 healthy subjects (HS Group were enrolled in a randomized, single-blinded, crossover study. Each subject received a single session of AA and sham AA (SAA. Surface EMG activity was measured in the upper trapezius muscle at different “step contractions” of isometric shoulder elevation (15%, 20%, 25%, and 30% MVC. The outcome measure in patients with NS-NP was based on the numerical pain rating scale (NRS. AA treatment led to a significant decrease in EMG activity in both groups (NS-NP group: p = 0.0001; HS group: p < 0.0001—ANOVA test. This was not the case for the SAA treatment (NS-NP group: p = 0.71; HS group: p < 0.54. Significant decreases (p < 0.001 in the NRS were found for both treatments (AA and SAA. This study demonstrated the immediate effect of auricular acupuncture on the electromyographic activity of the upper trapezius muscle but the effect of this intervention on pain symptoms in patients with nonspecific neck pain was inconclusive.

  18. Evaluation of the Immediate Effect of Auricular Acupuncture on Pain and Electromyographic Activity of the Upper Trapezius Muscle in Patients with Nonspecific Neck Pain: A Randomized, Single-Blinded, Sham-Controlled, Crossover Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Andréia Cristina de Oliveira; Biasotto-Gonzalez, Daniela Aparecida; Dos Santos, Douglas Meira; Melo, Nivea Cristina De; Gomes, Cid André Fidelis de Paula; Amorim, César Ferreira; Politti, Fabiano

    2015-01-01

    Background. The aim of the present study was to assess the immediate effects of auricular acupuncture (AA) on the electromyographic (EMG) activity of the upper trapezius muscle and pain in nonspecific neck pain (NS-NP) patients. Twelve patients with NS-NP (NS-NP group) and 12 healthy subjects (HS Group) were enrolled in a randomized, single-blinded, crossover study. Each subject received a single session of AA and sham AA (SAA). Surface EMG activity was measured in the upper trapezius muscle at different "step contractions" of isometric shoulder elevation (15%, 20%, 25%, and 30% MVC). The outcome measure in patients with NS-NP was based on the numerical pain rating scale (NRS). AA treatment led to a significant decrease in EMG activity in both groups (NS-NP group: p = 0.0001; HS group: p treatment (NS-NP group: p = 0.71; HS group: p treatments (AA and SAA). This study demonstrated the immediate effect of auricular acupuncture on the electromyographic activity of the upper trapezius muscle but the effect of this intervention on pain symptoms in patients with nonspecific neck pain was inconclusive.

  19. Efficacy and safety of a single botulinum type A toxin complex treatment (Dysport) for the relief of upper back myofascial pain syndrome: results from a randomized double-blind placebo-controlled multicentre study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Göbel, Hartmut; Heinze, Axel; Reichel, Gerhard; Hefter, Harald; Benecke, Reiner

    2006-11-01

    Botulinum type A toxin (BoNT-A) has antinociceptive and muscle-relaxant properties and may help relieve the symptoms of myofascial pain syndrome. In this study we evaluated the efficacy and tolerability of BoNT-A (Dysport) in patients with myofascial pain syndrome of the upper back. We conducted a prospective, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, 12-week, multicentre study. Patients with moderate-to-severe myofascial pain syndrome affecting cervical and/or shoulder muscles (10 trigger points, disease duration 6-24 months) were randomized to Dysport or saline. Injections were made into the 10 most tender trigger points (40 units per site). The primary outcome was the proportion of patients with mild or no pain at week 5. Secondary outcomes included changes in pain intensity and the number of pain-free days per week. Tolerability and safety were also assessed. At week 5, significantly more patients in the Dysport group reported mild or no pain (51%), compared with the patients in the placebo group (26%; p=0.002). Compared with placebo, Dysport resulted in a significantly greater change from baseline in pain intensity during weeks 5-8 (ppain between weeks 5 and 12 (p=0.036). Treatment was well tolerated, with most side effects resolving within 8 weeks. In conclusion, in patients with upper back myofascial pain syndrome, injections of 400 Ipsen units of Dysport at 10 individualised trigger points significantly improved pain levels 4-6 weeks after treatment. Injections were well tolerated.

  20. A Reformulation of Support Vector Machines for General Confidence Functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Yuhong; Schuurmans, Dale

    We present a generalized view of support vector machines that does not rely on a Euclidean geometric interpretation nor even positive semidefinite kernels. We base our development instead on the confidence matrix—the matrix normally determined by the direct (Hadamard) product of the kernel matrix with the label outer-product matrix. It turns out that alternative forms of confidence matrices are possible, and indeed useful. By focusing on the confidence matrix instead of the underlying kernel, we can derive an intuitive principle for optimizing example weights to yield robust classifiers. Our principle initially recovers the standard quadratic SVM training criterion, which is only convex for kernel-derived confidence measures. However, given our generalized view, we are then able to derive a principled relaxation of the SVM criterion that yields a convex upper bound. This relaxation is always convex and can be solved with a linear program. Our new training procedure obtains similar generalization performance to standard SVMs on kernel-derived confidence functions, but achieves even better results with indefinite confidence functions.

  1. Test Anxiety Reduction and Confidence Training: A Replication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowman, Noah; Driscoll, Richard

    2013-01-01

    This study was undertaken to replicate prior research in which a brief counter-conditioning and confidence training program was found to reduce anxiety and raise test scores. First-semester college students were screened with the Westside Test Anxiety Scale, and the 25 identified as having high or moderately-high anxiety were randomly divided…

  2. Eliminative Argumentation: A Basis for Arguing Confidence in System Properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-02-01

    for all i ≠ j. Such structures have been called “multi-legged arguments” in the assurance case literature [ Bloomfield 2003] or “convergent” arguments...example and show how to develop a well- formed confidence map. In particular, we consider alternative argumentation structures. Bloomfield and...3 and we are 99% certain that 10−3 is an upper bound on the failure rate [ Bloomfield 2003]. Such a claim is statistically jus- tified if 4,603

  3. Random fixed points and random differential inclusions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikolaos S. Papageorgiou

    1988-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, first, we study random best approximations to random sets, using fixed point techniques, obtaining this way stochastic analogues of earlier deterministic results by Browder-Petryshyn, KyFan and Reich. Then we prove two fixed point theorems for random multifunctions with stochastic domain that satisfy certain tangential conditions. Finally we consider a random differential inclusion with upper semicontinuous orientor field and establish the existence of random solutions.

  4. The construction of confidence in a perceptual decision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zylberberg, Ariel; Barttfeld, Pablo; Sigman, Mariano

    2012-01-01

    Decision-making involves the selection of one out of many possible courses of action. A decision may bear on other decisions, as when humans seek a second medical opinion before undergoing a risky surgical intervention. These “meta-decisions” are mediated by confidence judgments—the degree to which decision-makers consider that a choice is likely to be correct. We studied how subjective confidence is constructed from noisy sensory evidence. The psychophysical kernels used to convert sensory information into choice and confidence decisions were precisely reconstructed measuring the impact of small fluctuations in sensory input. This is shown in two independent experiments in which human participants made a decision about the direction of motion of a set of randomly moving dots, or compared the brightness of a group of fluctuating bars, followed by a confidence report. The results of both experiments converged to show that: (1) confidence was influenced by evidence during a short window of time at the initial moments of the decision, and (2) confidence was influenced by evidence for the selected choice but was virtually blind to evidence for the non-selected choice. Our findings challenge classical models of subjective confidence—which posit that the difference of evidence in favor of each choice is the seed of the confidence signal. PMID:23049504

  5. Upper Endoscopy

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Upper Endoscopy (EGD) The Latest Practice Guidelines Technology Reviews Articles Videos Events & Products Ensuring the Safety of ... S0016-5107(98)70268-8 View more Technology Reviews Members-only content Document Link: ASGE Leading Edge: ...

  6. Upper Endoscopy

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Upper Endoscopy (EGD) The Latest Practice Guidelines Technology Reviews Articles Videos Events & Products Ensuring the Safety of ... S0016-5107(98)70268-8 View more Technology Reviews Members-only content Document Link: ASGE Leading Edge: ...

  7. Upper Endoscopy

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... EGD) Upper Endoscopy (EGD) The Latest Practice Guidelines Technology Reviews Articles Videos Events & Products Ensuring the Safety ... 1016/S0016-5107(98)70268-8 View more Technology Reviews Members-only content Document Link: ASGE Leading ...

  8. Upper Endoscopy

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... EGD) Upper Endoscopy (EGD) The Latest Practice Guidelines Technology Reviews Articles Videos Events & Products Ensuring the Safety ... 1016/S0016-5107(98)70268-8 View more Technology Reviews Members-only content Document Link: ASGE Leading ...

  9. Upper Endoscopy

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Staff Rent IT&T Facility Gastrointestinal Glossary of Terms Home / Clinical Topics / Procedures F - Z / Upper Endoscopy ( ... Facebook ASGE on Youtube ASGE on Twitter Privacy | Terms of Use | © 2017 American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy

  10. Robust misinterpretation of confidence intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoekstra, Rink; Morey, Richard D; Rouder, Jeffrey N; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2014-10-01

    Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is undoubtedly the most common inferential technique used to justify claims in the social sciences. However, even staunch defenders of NHST agree that its outcomes are often misinterpreted. Confidence intervals (CIs) have frequently been proposed as a more useful alternative to NHST, and their use is strongly encouraged in the APA Manual. Nevertheless, little is known about how researchers interpret CIs. In this study, 120 researchers and 442 students-all in the field of psychology-were asked to assess the truth value of six particular statements involving different interpretations of a CI. Although all six statements were false, both researchers and students endorsed, on average, more than three statements, indicating a gross misunderstanding of CIs. Self-declared experience with statistics was not related to researchers' performance, and, even more surprisingly, researchers hardly outperformed the students, even though the students had not received any education on statistical inference whatsoever. Our findings suggest that many researchers do not know the correct interpretation of a CI. The misunderstandings surrounding p-values and CIs are particularly unfortunate because they constitute the main tools by which psychologists draw conclusions from data.

  11. Invited commentary on comparison of robotics, functional electrical stimulation, and motor learning methods for treatment of persistent upper extremity dysfunction after stroke: a randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwakkel, Gert; van Wegen, Erwin E; Meskers, Carel M

    2015-06-01

    In this issue of Archives of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation, Jessica McCabe and colleagues report findings from their methodologically sound, dose-matched clinical trial in 39 patients beyond 6 months poststroke. In this phase II trial, the effects of 60 treatment sessions, each involving 3.5 hours of intensive practice plus either 1.5 hours of functional electrical stimulation (FES) or a shoulder-arm robotic therapy, were compared with 5 hours of intensive daily practice alone. Although no significant between-group differences were found on the primary outcome measure of Arm Motor Ability Test and the secondary outcome measure of Fugl-Meyer Arm motor score, 10% to 15% within-group therapeutic gains were on the Arm Motor Ability Test and Fugl-Meyer Arm. These gains are clinically meaningful for patients with stroke. However, the underlying mechanisms that drive these improvements remain poorly understood. The approximately $1000 cost reduction per patient calculated for the use of motor learning (ML) methods alone or combined with FES, compared with the combination of ML and shoulder-arm robotics, further emphasizes the need for cost considerations when making clinical decisions about selecting the most appropriate therapy for the upper paretic limb in patients with chronic stroke.

  12. High Confidence Software and Systems Research Needs

    Data.gov (United States)

    Networking and Information Technology Research and Development, Executive Office of the President — This White Paper presents a survey of high confidence software and systems research needs. It has been prepared by the High Confidence Software and Systems...

  13. Confidence rating of marine eutrophication assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Murray, Ciarán; Andersen, Jesper Harbo; Kaartokallio, Hermanni

    2011-01-01

    This report presents the development of a methodology for assessing confidence in eutrophication status classifications. The method can be considered as a secondary assessment, supporting the primary assessment of eutrophication status. The confidence assessment is based on a transparent scoring...

  14. A Mathematical Framework for Statistical Decision Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hangya, Balázs; Sanders, Joshua I; Kepecs, Adam

    2016-09-01

    Decision confidence is a forecast about the probability that a decision will be correct. From a statistical perspective, decision confidence can be defined as the Bayesian posterior probability that the chosen option is correct based on the evidence contributing to it. Here, we used this formal definition as a starting point to develop a normative statistical framework for decision confidence. Our goal was to make general predictions that do not depend on the structure of the noise or a specific algorithm for estimating confidence. We analytically proved several interrelations between statistical decision confidence and observable decision measures, such as evidence discriminability, choice, and accuracy. These interrelationships specify necessary signatures of decision confidence in terms of externally quantifiable variables that can be empirically tested. Our results lay the foundations for a mathematically rigorous treatment of decision confidence that can lead to a common framework for understanding confidence across different research domains, from human and animal behavior to neural representations.

  15. Status and Confidence, in the Lab

    OpenAIRE

    Jeffrey V. Butler

    2009-01-01

    It is widely recognized that confidence can have important economic consequences. While most of the focus has been on overconfidence, systematic variation in confidence can imply systematic variation in economic outcomes. Intriguingly, sociological and social psychological research suggests that being on the wrong side of inequality undermines confidence. This paper examines the link between inequality and confidence in a controlled, incentive-compatible laboratory setting. Inequality was int...

  16. Skeletal muscle contractility, self-reported pain and tissue sensitivity in females with neck/shoulder pain and upper Trapezius myofascial trigger points - a randomized intervention study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Myburgh, Corrie; Hartvigsen, Jan; Aagaard, Per

    2012-01-01

    -intervention and 48 hours post-intervention. Symptomatic and asymptomatic participant groups were each randomized into two treatment sub-groups (superficial (SDN) and deep dry needling (DDN)) after baseline testing. At 48 hours post-intervention participants were asked whether delayed onset muscle soreness (DOMS) and....../or post-needling soreness had developed. RESULTS: Muscle contractile characteristics did not differ between groups at baseline. Forty-six individuals developed muscle soreness (39 from mechanical testing and seven from needling). No inter-group differences were observed post-intervention for Fmax or RFD......The present investigation is one of the first to examine the hypothesis of gross muscle contractile inhibition due to the presence of diagnostically relevant MFTrPs.Individuals suffering from clinically relevant levels of self-reported pain are able to tolerate maximum voluntary contraction testing...

  17. The effects of Nintendo Wii(TM)-based balance and upper extremity training on activities of daily living and quality of life in patients with sub-acute stroke: a randomized controlled study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Şimşek, Tülay Tarsuslu; Çekok, Kübra

    2016-12-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of Nintendo Wii(TM)-based balance and upper extremity training on activities of daily living and quality of life in patients with subacute stroke. 42 adults with stroke (mean age (SD) = 58.04 (16.56) years and mean time since stroke (SD) = (55.2 ± 22.02 days (∼8 weeks)) were included in the study. Participants were enrolled from the rehabilitation department of a medical center (a single inpatient rehabilitation facility). Participants were randomly assigned to Nintendo Wii group (n = 20) or Bobath neurodevelopmental treatment (NDT) (n = 22). The treatments were applied for 10 weeks (45-60 minutes/day, 3 days/week) for both of two groups. Nintendo Wii group used five games selected from the Wii sports and Wii Fit packages for upper limb and balance training, respectively. The patients in Bobath NDT group were applied a therapy program included upper extremity activites, strength, balance gait and functional training. The functional independence in daily life activities and health-related quality of life was assessed with Functional Independence Measure (FIM) and Nottingham Health Profile (NHP), respectively. Participant's treatment satisfaction was recorded by using Visual Analogue Scale. A second evaluation (FIM and NHP) occurred after 10 weeks at the end of rehabilitative treatment (post-training). Treatment satisfaction was measured after 10 sessions. There were significant difference between FIM and NHP values in NDT and Nintendo Wii group (p 0.05). The patients in Nintendo Wii group were detected to be better satisfied from the therapy (p Bobath NDT on daily living functions and quality of life in subacute stroke patients.

  18. Effect of Radial Shock Wave Therapy on Spasticity of the Upper Limb in Patients With Chronic Stroke: A Prospective, Randomized, Single Blind, Controlled Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Tsung-Ying; Chang, Chih-Ya; Chou, Yu-Ching; Chen, Liang-Cheng; Chu, Heng-Yi; Chiang, Shang-Lin; Chang, Shin-Tsu; Wu, Yung-Tsan

    2016-05-01

    Recently, studies have reported that extracorporeal shock wave therapy (ESWT) is a safe, noninvasive, alternative treatment for spasticity. However, the effect of ESWT on spasticity cannot be determined, because most studies to date have enrolled small patient numbers and have lacked placebo-controlled groups and/or long-term follow-up. In addition, whether varying the number of ESWT sessions would affect the duration of the therapeutic effect has not been investigated in a single study. Hence, we performed a prospective, randomized, single blind, placebo-controlled study to investigate the long-term effect of radial ESWT (rESWT) in patients with poststroke spasticity and surveyed the outcome of functional activity.Sixty patients were randomized into 3 groups. Group A patients received 1 session of rESWT per week for 3 consecutive weeks; group B patients received a single session of rESWT; group C patients received one session of sham rESWT per week for 3 consecutive weeks. The primary outcome was Modified Ashworth Scale of hand and wrist, whereas the secondary outcomes were Fugl-Meyer Assessment of hand function and wrist control. Evaluations were performed before the first rESWT treatment and immediately 1, 4, 8, 12, and 16 weeks after the last session of rESWT.Compared to the control group, the significant reduction in spasticity of hand and wrist lasted at least 16 and 8 weeks in group A and B, respectively. Three sessions of rESWT had a longer-lasting effect than one session. Furthermore, the reduction in spasticity after 3 sessions of rESWT may be beneficial for hand function and wrist control and the effect was maintained for 16 and 12 weeks, respectively.rESWT may be valuable in decreasing spasticity of the hand and wrist with accompanying enhancement of wrist control and hand function in chronic stroke patients.

  19. A Confidence Paradigm for Classification Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-09-01

    M.U. Thomas Date Dean, Graduate School of Engineering and Management Table of Contents Page List of Figures...Plato, Aristotle, Plotinus, St Augustine, St Aquinas , Machi- avelli, Descartes, Hobbes, Locke, Rousseau, Kant, Marx, Mill, Confucius) discuss having...independence, and aggregation of confidence is a linear summation of individual confidence values. Thomas and Allcock [61] develop a statistical confidence

  20. Normal probability plots with confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chantarangsi, Wanpen; Liu, Wei; Bretz, Frank; Kiatsupaibul, Seksan; Hayter, Anthony J; Wan, Fang

    2015-01-01

    Normal probability plots are widely used as a statistical tool for assessing whether an observed simple random sample is drawn from a normally distributed population. The users, however, have to judge subjectively, if no objective rule is provided, whether the plotted points fall close to a straight line. In this paper, we focus on how a normal probability plot can be augmented by intervals for all the points so that, if the population distribution is normal, then all the points should fall into the corresponding intervals simultaneously with probability 1-α. These simultaneous 1-α probability intervals provide therefore an objective mean to judge whether the plotted points fall close to the straight line: the plotted points fall close to the straight line if and only if all the points fall into the corresponding intervals. The powers of several normal probability plot based (graphical) tests and the most popular nongraphical Anderson-Darling and Shapiro-Wilk tests are compared by simulation. Based on this comparison, recommendations are given in Section 3 on which graphical tests should be used in what circumstances. An example is provided to illustrate the methods.

  1. High-Confidence Quantum Gate Tomography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Blake; da Silva, Marcus; Ryan, Colm; Kimmel, Shelby; Donovan, Brian; Ohki, Thomas

    2014-03-01

    Debugging and verification of high-fidelity quantum gates requires the development of new tools and protocols to unwrap the performance of the gate from the rest of the sequence. Randomized benchmarking tomography[2] allows one to extract full information of the unital portion of the gate with high confidence. We report experimental confirmation of the technique's applicability to quantum gate tomography. We show that the method is robust to common experimental imperfections such as imperfect single-shot readout and state preparation. We also demonstrate the ability to characterize non-Clifford gates. To assist in the experimental implementation we introduce two techniques. ``Atomic Cliffords'' use phase ramping and frame tracking to allow single-pulse implementation of the full group of single-qubit Clifford gates. Domain specific pulse sequencers allow rapid implementation of the many thousands of sequences needed. This research was funded by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), through the Army Research Office contract no. W911NF-10-1-0324.

  2. Confidence Intervals of Variance Functions in Generalized Linear Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yong Zhou; Dao-ji Li

    2006-01-01

    In this paper we introduce an appealing nonparametric method for estimating variance and conditional variance functions in generalized linear models (GLMs), when designs are fixed points and random variables respectively. Bias-corrected confidence bands are proposed for the (conditional) variance by local linear smoothers. Nonparametric techniques are developed in deriving the bias-corrected confidence intervals of the (conditional) variance. The asymptotic distribution of the proposed estimator is established and show that the bias-corrected confidence bands asymptotically have the correct coverage properties. A small simulation is performed when unknown regression parameter is estimated by nonparametric quasi-likelihood. The results are also applicable to nonparametric autoregressive times series model with heteroscedastic conditional variance.

  3. Linguistic Weighted Aggregation under Confidence Levels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chonghui Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We develop some new linguistic aggregation operators based on confidence levels. Firstly, we introduce the confidence linguistic weighted averaging (CLWA operator and the confidence linguistic ordered weighted averaging (CLOWA operator. These two new linguistic aggregation operators are able to consider the confidence level of the aggregated arguments provided by the information providers. We also study some of their properties. Then, based on the generalized means, we introduce the confidence generalized linguistic ordered weighted averaging (CGLOWA operator. The main advantage of the CGLOWA operator is that it includes a wide range of special cases such as the CLOWA operator, the confidence linguistic ordered weighted quadratic averaging (CLOWQA operator, and the confidence linguistic ordered weighted geometric (CLOWG operator. Finally, we develop an application of the new approach in a multicriteria decision-making under linguistic environment and illustrate it with a numerical example.

  4. Upper gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with CKD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Chih-Chia; Wang, Su-Ming; Kuo, Huey-Liang; Chang, Chiz-Tzung; Liu, Jiung-Hsiun; Lin, Hsin-Hung; Wang, I-Kuan; Yang, Ya-Fei; Lu, Yueh-Ju; Chou, Che-Yi; Huang, Chiu-Ching

    2014-08-07

    Patients with CKD receiving maintenance dialysis are at risk for upper gastrointestinal bleeding. However, the risk of upper gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with early CKD who are not receiving dialysis is unknown. The hypothesis was that their risk of upper gastrointestinal bleeding is negatively linked to renal function. To test this hypothesis, the association between eGFR and risk of upper gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with stages 3-5 CKD who were not receiving dialysis was analyzed. Patients with stages 3-5 CKD in the CKD program from 2003 to 2009 were enrolled and prospectively followed until December of 2012 to monitor the development of upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The risk of upper gastrointestinal bleeding was analyzed using competing-risks regression with time-varying covariates. In total, 2968 patients with stages 3-5 CKD who were not receiving dialysis were followed for a median of 1.9 years. The incidence of upper gastrointestinal bleeding per 100 patient-years was 3.7 (95% confidence interval, 3.5 to 3.9) in patients with stage 3 CKD, 5.0 (95% confidence interval, 4.8 to 5.3) in patients with stage 4 CKD, and 13.9 (95% confidence interval, 13.1 to 14.8) in patients with stage 5 CKD. Higher eGFR was associated with a lower risk of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (P=0.03), with a subdistribution hazard ratio of 0.93 (95% confidence interval, 0.87 to 0.99) for every 5 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) higher eGFR. A history of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (Pupper gastrointestinal bleeding risk. In patients with CKD who are not receiving dialysis, lower renal function is associated with higher risk for upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The risk is higher in patients with previous upper gastrointestinal bleeding history and low serum albumin. Copyright © 2014 by the American Society of Nephrology.

  5. Effects of repetitive peripheral magnetic stimulation on upper-limb spasticity and impairment in patients with spastic hemiparesis: a randomized, double-blind, sham-controlled study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krewer, Carmen; Hartl, Sandra; Müller, Friedemann; Koenig, Eberhard

    2014-06-01

    To investigate short-term and long-term effects of repetitive peripheral magnetic stimulation (rpMS) on spasticity and motor function. Monocentric, randomized, double-blind, sham-controlled trial. Neurologic rehabilitation hospital. Patients (N=66) with severe hemiparesis and mild to moderate spasticity resulting from a stroke or a traumatic brain injury. The average time ± SD since injury for the intervention groups was 26 ± 71 weeks or 37 ± 82 weeks. rpMS for 20 minutes or sham stimulation with subsequent occupational therapy for 20 minutes, 2 times a day, over a 2-week period. Modified Tardieu Scale and Fugl-Meyer Assessment (arm score), assessed before therapy, at the end of the 2-week treatment period, and 2 weeks after study treatment. Additionally, the Tardieu Scale was assessed after the first and before the third therapy session to determine any short-term effects. Spasticity (Tardieu >0) was present in 83% of wrist flexors, 62% of elbow flexors, 44% of elbow extensors, and 10% of wrist extensors. Compared with the sham stimulation group, the rpMS group showed short-term effects on spasticity for wrist flexors (P=.048), and long-term effects for elbow extensors (P<.045). Arm motor function (rpMS group: median 5 [4-27]; sham group: median 4 [4-9]) did not significantly change over the study period in either group, whereas rpMS had a positive effect on sensory function. Therapy with rpMS increases sensory function in patients with severe limb paresis. The magnetic stimulation, however, has limited effect on spasticity and no effect on motor function. Copyright © 2014 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Randomized Trial on the Effects of Attentional Focus on Motor Training of the Upper Extremity Using Robotics With Individuals After Chronic Stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Grace J; Hinojosa, Jim; Rao, Ashwini K; Batavia, Mitchell; O'Dell, Michael W

    2017-10-01

    To compare the long-term effects of external focus (EF) and internal focus (IF) of attention after 4 weeks of arm training. Randomized, repeated-measures, mixed analysis of variance. Outpatient clinic. Individuals with stroke and moderate-to-severe arm impairment living in the community (N=33; withdrawals: n=3). Four-week arm training protocol on a robotic device (12 sessions). Joint independence, Fugl-Meyer Assessment, and Wolf Motor Function Test measured at baseline, discharge, and 4-week follow-up. There were no between-group effects for attentional focus. Participants in both groups improved significantly on all outcome measures from baseline to discharge and maintained those changes at 4-week follow-up regardless of group assignment (joint independence EF condition: F1.6,45.4=17.74; P<.0005; partial η(2)=.39; joint independence IF condition: F2,56=18.66; P<.0005; partial η(2)=.40; Fugl-Meyer Assessment: F2,56=27.83; P<.0005; partial η(2)=.50; Wolf Motor Function Test: F2,56=14.05; P<.0005; partial η(2)=.35). There were no differences in retention of motor skills between EF and IF participants 4 weeks after arm training, suggesting that individuals with moderate-to-severe arm impairment may not experience the advantages of an EF found in healthy individuals. Attentional focus is most likely not an active ingredient for retention of trained motor skills for individuals with moderate-to-severe arm impairment, whereas dosage and intensity of practice appear to be pivotal. Future studies should investigate the long-term effects of attentional focus for individuals with mild arm impairment. Copyright © 2017 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Regional Competition for Confidence: Features of Formation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina Svyatoslavovna Vazhenina

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The increase in economic independence of the regions inevitably leads to an increase in the quality requirements of the regional economic policy. The key to successful regional policy, both during its development and implementation, is the understanding of the necessity of gaining confidence (at all levels, and the inevitable participation in the competition for confidence. The importance of confidence in the region is determined by its value as a competitive advantage in the struggle for partners, resources and tourists, and attracting investments. In today’s environment the focus of governments, regions and companies on long-term cooperation is clearly expressed, which is impossible without a high level of confidence between partners. Therefore, the most important competitive advantages of territories are intangible assets such as an attractive image and a good reputation, which builds up confidence of the population and partners. The higher the confidence in the region is, the broader is the range of potential partners, the larger is the planning horizon of long-term concerted action, the better are the chances of acquiring investment, the higher is the level of competitive immunity of the territories. The article defines competition for confidence as purposeful behavior of a market participant in economic environment, aimed at acquiring specific intangible competitive advantage – the confidence of the largest possible number of other market actors. The article also highlights the specifics of confidence as a competitive goal, presents factors contributing to the destruction of confidence, proposes a strategy to fight for confidence as a program of four steps, considers the factors which integrate regional confidence and offers several recommendations for the establishment of effective regional competition for confidence

  8. Consumer confidence or the business cycle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Stig Vinther; Nørholm, Henrik; Rangvid, Jesper

    2014-01-01

    Answer: The business cycle. We show that consumer confidence and the output gap both excess returns on stocks in many European countries: When the output gap is positive (the economy is doing well), expected returns are low, and when consumer confidence is high, expected returns are also low....... Consumer confidence and the output gap are also highly positively correlated. In fact, we find that consumer confidence does not contain independent information (i.e. information over and above that contained by the output gap) about expected returns. Our use of European data allows us to examine both...... aggregate European and local-country data on consumer confidence and output gaps. We find that even local-country consumer confidence does not contain independent information about expected returns. Our findings have asset pricing implication: We show taht the cross-country distribution of expected returns...

  9. Intelligence, Self-confidence and Entrepreneurship

    OpenAIRE

    Asoni, Andrea

    2011-01-01

    I investigate the effect of human capital on entrepreneurship using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth - 1979. I find that individuals with higher measured intelligence and self-confidence are more likely to be entrepreneurs. Furthermore I present evidence suggesting that intelligence and self-confidence affect business ownership through two different channels: intelligence increases business survival while self-confidence increases business creation. Finally, once we control for intel...

  10. Confidence Intervals from One One Observation

    CERN Document Server

    Rodriguez, Carlos C

    2008-01-01

    Robert Machol's surprising result, that from a single observation it is possible to have finite length confidence intervals for the parameters of location-scale models, is re-produced and extended. Two previously unpublished modifications are included. First, Herbert Robbins nonparametric confidence interval is obtained. Second, I introduce a technique for obtaining confidence intervals for the scale parameter of finite length in the logarithmic metric. Keywords: Theory/Foundations , Estimation, Prior Distributions, Non-parametrics & Semi-parametrics Geometry of Inference, Confidence Intervals, Location-Scale models

  11. A model for developing disability confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindsay, Sally; Cancelliere, Sara

    2017-05-15

    Many clinicians, educators, and employers lack disability confidence which can affect their interactions with, and inclusion of people with disabilities. Our objective was to explore how disability confidence developed among youth who volunteered with children who have a disability. We conducted 30 in-depth interviews (16 without a disability, 14 with disabilities), with youth aged 15-25. We analyzed our data using an interpretive, qualitative, thematic approach. We identified four main themes that led to the progression of disability confidence including: (1) "disability discomfort," referring to lacking knowledge about disability and experiencing unease around people with disabilities; (2) "reaching beyond comfort zone" where participants increased their understanding of disability and became sensitized to difference; (3) "broadened perspectives" where youth gained exposure to people with disabilities and challenged common misperceptions and stereotypes; and (4) "disability confidence" which includes having knowledge of people with disabilities, inclusive, and positive attitudes towards them. Volunteering is one way that can help to develop disability confidence. Youth with and without disabilities both reported a similar process of developing disability confidence; however, there were nuances between the two groups. Implications for Rehabilitation The development of disability confidence is important for enhancing the social inclusion of people with disabilities. Volunteering with people who have a disability, or a disability different from their own, can help to develop disability confidence which involves positive attitudes, empathy, and appropriate communication skills. Clinicians, educators, and employers should consider promoting working with disabled people through such avenues as volunteering or service learning to gain disability confidence.

  12. Empirical Likelihood Confidence Intervals for the Differences of Quantiles with Missing Data

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yong-song Qin; Yong-jiang Qian

    2009-01-01

    Suppose that there are two nonparametric populations x and y with missing data on both of them.We are interested in constructing confidence intervals on the quantile differences of x and y.Random imputation is used.Empirical likelihood confidence intervals on the differences are constructed.

  13. Antitussive effect of a fixed combination of Justicia adhatoda, Echinacea purpurea and Eleutherococcus senticosus extracts in patients with acute upper respiratory tract infection: A comparative, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barth, Anders; Hovhannisyan, Areg; Jamalyan, Kristina; Narimanyan, Mikael

    2015-12-01

    Kan Jang® oral solution (KJ) is a fixed combination of aqueous ethanolic extracts of Justicia adhatoda L. leaf, Echinacea purpurea (L.) Moench root, and Eleutherococcus senticosus (Rupr. & Maxim.) Harms root. It is approved in Scandinavia as an herbal medicinal product for respiratory tract infection treatment. The present clinical trial aimed to compare the antitussive effect of KJ with placebo (PL) and bromhexine (BH) among patients of 18-65 years old with non-complicated upper respiratory infections (URI; i.e., common cold). We performed a parallel-group, randomized, double-blinded, placebo-controlled trial in in 177 patients with acute URI over a 5 day period. We investigated the antitussive effects of a KJ (30 ml/day; 762 mg genuine extracts with standardized contents of 0.2 mg/ml vasicine, 0.8 mg/ml chicoric acid, and 0.03 mg/ml eleutherosides B and E), bromhexine hydrochloride (24 mg/30 ml/day) and PL on cough and blood markers. The primary outcome was cough relief, which was assessed as the change of cough frequency from baseline (cough index). Secondary outcomes were safety with regards to reported adverse events (AEs) and hematological data. Both KJ and BH relieved cough more effectively than placebo. On the third and fourth days of treatment, we observed faster improvement in the group receiving KJ compared to in the groups receiving BH (100%) or PL (100%), indicating a slightly shorter recovery time in the KJ group. KJ showed a good tolerability and safety profile. KJ exerted significant antitussive effects in URI. The present data further support the therapeutic use of KJ in upper respiratory tract infections. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier GmbH.. All rights reserved.

  14. in upper gastrointestinal endoscopy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sinan Uzman

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction : There is increasing interest in sedation for upper gastrointestinal endoscopy (UGE. Prospective randomized studies comparing sedation properties and complications of propofol and midazolam/meperidine in upper gastrointestinal endoscopy (UGE are few. Aim: To compare propofol and midazolam/meperidine sedation for UGE in terms of cardiopulmonary side effects, patient and endoscopist satisfaction and procedure-related times. Material and methods: This was a prospective, randomized, double-blind study of propofol versus midazolam and meperidine in 100 patients scheduled for diagnostic upper gastrointestinal endoscopy. The patients were divided into propofol and midazolam/meperidine groups. Randomization was generated by a computer. Cardiopulmonary side effects (hypotension, bradycardia, hypoxemia, procedure-related times (endoscopy time, awake time, time to hospital discharge, and patient and endoscopist satisfaction were compared between groups. Results: There was no significant difference between the groups with respect to the cost, endoscopy time, or demographic and clinical characteristics of the patients. Awake time and time to hospital discharge were significantly shorter in the propofol group (6.58 ±4.72 vs. 9.32 ±4.26 min, p = 0.030 and 27.60 ±7.88 vs. 32.00 ±10.54 min, p = 0.019. Hypotension incidence was significantly higher in the propofol group (12% vs. 0%, p = 0.027. The patient and endoscopist satisfaction was better with propofol. Conclusions : Propofol may be preferred to midazolam/meperidine sedation, with a shorter awake and hospital discharge time and better patient and endoscopist satisfaction. However, hypotension risk should be considered with propofol, and careful evaluation is needed, particularly in cardiopulmonary disorders.

  15. 75 FR 81037 - Waste Confidence Decision Update

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-23

    ... COMMISSION 10 CFR Part 51 Waste Confidence Decision Update AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission. ACTION: Update and final revision of Waste Confidence Decision. SUMMARY: The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission... update to the Decision were products of rulemaking proceedings designed to assess the degree of...

  16. Self-Confidence in the Hospitality Industry

    OpenAIRE

    Michael Oshins

    2014-01-01

    Few industries rely on self-confidence to the extent that the hospitality industry does because guests must feel welcome and that they are in capable hands. This article examines the results of hundreds of student interviews with industry professionals at all levels to determine where the majority of the hospitality industry gets their self-confidence.

  17. Self-Confidence in the Hospitality Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Oshins

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Few industries rely on self-confidence to the extent that the hospitality industry does because guests must feel welcome and that they are in capable hands. This article examines the results of hundreds of student interviews with industry professionals at all levels to determine where the majority of the hospitality industry gets their self-confidence.

  18. Nonparametric confidence intervals for monotone functions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groeneboom, P.; Jongbloed, G.

    2015-01-01

    We study nonparametric isotonic confidence intervals for monotone functions. In [Ann. Statist. 29 (2001) 1699–1731], pointwise confidence intervals, based on likelihood ratio tests using the restricted and unrestricted MLE in the current status model, are introduced. We extend the method to the trea

  19. Building Scientific Confidence in the Development and ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Building Scientific Confidence in the Development and Evaluation of Read-Across Using Tox21 Approaches Slide presentation at GlobalChem conference and workshop in Washington, DC on Case Study on Building Scientific Confidence in the Development and Evaluation of Read-Across Using Tox21 Approaches

  20. Nonparametric confidence intervals for monotone functions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groeneboom, P.; Jongbloed, G.

    2015-01-01

    We study nonparametric isotonic confidence intervals for monotone functions. In [Ann. Statist. 29 (2001) 1699–1731], pointwise confidence intervals, based on likelihood ratio tests using the restricted and unrestricted MLE in the current status model, are introduced. We extend the method to the

  1. Hypercorrection of High Confidence Errors in Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metcalfe, Janet; Finn, Bridgid

    2012-01-01

    Three experiments investigated whether the hypercorrection effect--the finding that errors committed with high confidence are easier, rather than more difficult, to correct than are errors committed with low confidence--occurs in grade school children as it does in young adults. All three experiments showed that Grade 3-6 children hypercorrected…

  2. Examining Response Confidence in Multiple Text Tasks

    Science.gov (United States)

    List, Alexandra; Alexander, Patricia A.

    2015-01-01

    Students' confidence in their responses to a multiple text-processing task and their justifications for those confidence ratings were investigated. Specifically, 215 undergraduates responded to two academic questions, differing by type (i.e., discrete and open-ended) and by domain (i.e., developmental psychology and astrophysics), using a digital…

  3. Confidence and Competence with Mathematical Procedures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Colin

    2016-01-01

    Confidence assessment (CA), in which students state alongside each of their answers a confidence level expressing how certain they are, has been employed successfully within higher education. However, it has not been widely explored with school pupils. This study examined how school mathematics pupils (N?=?345) in five different secondary schools…

  4. Confidence and Competence with Mathematical Procedures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Colin

    2016-01-01

    Confidence assessment (CA), in which students state alongside each of their answers a confidence level expressing how certain they are, has been employed successfully within higher education. However, it has not been widely explored with school pupils. This study examined how school mathematics pupils (N?=?345) in five different secondary schools…

  5. Hypercorrection of High Confidence Errors in Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metcalfe, Janet; Finn, Bridgid

    2012-01-01

    Three experiments investigated whether the hypercorrection effect--the finding that errors committed with high confidence are easier, rather than more difficult, to correct than are errors committed with low confidence--occurs in grade school children as it does in young adults. All three experiments showed that Grade 3-6 children hypercorrected…

  6. Examining Response Confidence in Multiple Text Tasks

    Science.gov (United States)

    List, Alexandra; Alexander, Patricia A.

    2015-01-01

    Students' confidence in their responses to a multiple text-processing task and their justifications for those confidence ratings were investigated. Specifically, 215 undergraduates responded to two academic questions, differing by type (i.e., discrete and open-ended) and by domain (i.e., developmental psychology and astrophysics), using a digital…

  7. Lower confidence limits for structure reliability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Jiading; LI Ji

    2006-01-01

    For a class of data often arising in engineering,we have developed an approach to compute the lower confidence limit for structure reliability with a given confidence level.Especially,in a case with no failure and a case with only one failure,the concrete computational methods are presented.

  8. Financial Literacy, Confidence and Financial Advice Seeking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kramer, Marc M.

    2016-01-01

    We find that people with higher confidence in their own financial literacy are less likely to seek financial advice, but no relation between objective measures of literacy and advice seeking. The negative association between confidence and advice seeking is more pronounced among wealthy households.

  9. Self-confidence and metacognitive processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kleitman Sabina

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the status of Self-confidence trait. Two studies strongly suggest that Self-confidence is a component of metacognition. In the first study, participants (N=132 were administered measures of Self-concept, a newly devised Memory and Reasoning Competence Inventory (MARCI, and a Verbal Reasoning Test (VRT. The results indicate a significant relationship between confidence ratings on the VRT and the Reasoning component of MARCI. The second study (N=296 employed an extensive battery of cognitive tests and several metacognitive measures. Results indicate the presence of robust Self-confidence and Metacognitive Awareness factors, and a significant correlation between them. Self-confidence taps not only processes linked to performance on items that have correct answers, but also beliefs about events that may never occur.

  10. The computation of Buehler confidence limits

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FANG; Xiangzhong; CHEN; Jiading

    2005-01-01

    In medicine and industry, small sample size often arises owing to the high test cost. Then exact confidence inference is important. Buehler confidence limit is a kind of exact confidence limit for the function of parameters in a model. It can be always defined if the order in sample space is given. But the computing problem is often difficult, especially for the cases with high dimension parameter or with incomplete data. This paper presents an algorithm to compute the Buehler confidence limits by EM algorithm. This is the firsttime usage of EM algorithm on Buehler confidence limits, but the algorithm is often used for maximum likelihood estimate in literatures. Three computation examples are given to illustrate the method.

  11. On Random Rough Sets

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Weizhi Wu

    2006-01-01

    In this paper,the concept of a random rough set which includes the mechanisms of numeric and non-numeric aspects of uncertain knowledge is introduced. It is proved that for any belief structure and its inducing belief and plausibility measures there exists a random approximation space such that the associated lower and upper probabilities are respectively the given belief and plausibility measures, and vice versa. And for a random approximation space generated from a totally random set, its inducing lower and upper probabilities are respectively a pair of necessity and possibility measures.

  12. A randomized controlled double-blinded prospective study of the efficacy of clonidine added to bupivacaine as compared with bupivacaine alone used in supraclavicular brachial plexus block for upper limb surgeries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shivinder Singh

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available We compared the effects of clonidine added to bupivacaine with bupivacaine alone on supraclavicular brachial plexus block and observed the side-effects of both the groups. In this prospective, randomized,double-blinded, controlled trial, two groups of 25 patients each were investigated using (i 40 ml of bupivacaine 0.25% plus 0.150 mg of clonidine and (ii 40 ml of bupivacaine 0.25% plus 1 ml of NaCl 0.9, respectively. The onset of motor and sensory block and duration of sensory block were recorded along with monitoring of heart rate, non-invasive blood pressure, oxygen saturation and sedation. It was observed that addition of clonidine to bupivacaine resulted in faster onset of sensory block, longer duration of analgesia (as assessed by visual analogue score, prolongation of the motor block (as assessed by modified Lovett Rating Scale, prolongation of the duration of recovery of sensation and no association with any haemodynamic changes (heart rate and blood pressure, sedation or any other adverse effects. These findings suggest that clonidine added to bupivacaine is an attractive option for improving the quality and duration of supraclavicular brachial plexus block in upper limb surgeries.

  13. Short-Term Effects of Whole-Body Vibration Combined with Task-Related Training on Upper Extremity Function, Spasticity, and Grip Strength in Subjects with Poststroke Hemiplegia: A Pilot Randomized Controlled Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jung-Sun; Kim, Chang-Yong; Kim, Hyeong-Dong

    2016-08-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the effect of whole-body vibration training combined with task-related training on arm function, spasticity, and grip strength in subjects with poststroke hemiplegia. Forty-five subjects with poststroke were randomly allocated to 3 groups, each with 15 subjects as follows: control group, whole-body vibration group, and whole-body vibration plus task-related training group. Outcome was evaluated by clinical evaluation and measurements of the grip strength before and 4 weeks after intervention. Our results show that there was a significantly greater increase in the Fugl-Meyer scale, maximal grip strength of the affected hand, and grip strength normalized to the less affected hand in subjects undergoing the whole-body vibration training compared with the control group after the test. Furthermore, there was a significantly greater increase in the Wolf motor function test and a decrease in the modified Ashworth spasticity total scores in subjects who underwent whole-body vibration plus task-related training compared with those in the other 2 groups after the test. The findings indicate that the use of whole-body vibration training combined with task-related training has more benefits on the improvement of arm function, spasticity, and maximal grip strength than conventional upper limb training alone or with whole-body vibration in people with poststroke hemiplegia.

  14. We will be champions: Leaders' confidence in 'us' inspires team members' team confidence and performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fransen, K; Steffens, N K; Haslam, S A; Vanbeselaere, N; Vande Broek, G; Boen, F

    2016-12-01

    The present research examines the impact of leaders' confidence in their team on the team confidence and performance of their teammates. In an experiment involving newly assembled soccer teams, we manipulated the team confidence expressed by the team leader (high vs neutral vs low) and assessed team members' responses and performance as they unfolded during a competition (i.e., in a first baseline session and a second test session). Our findings pointed to team confidence contagion such that when the leader had expressed high (rather than neutral or low) team confidence, team members perceived their team to be more efficacious and were more confident in the team's ability to win. Moreover, leaders' team confidence affected individual and team performance such that teams led by a highly confident leader performed better than those led by a less confident leader. Finally, the results supported a hypothesized mediational model in showing that the effect of leaders' confidence on team members' team confidence and performance was mediated by the leader's perceived identity leadership and members' team identification. In conclusion, the findings of this experiment suggest that leaders' team confidence can enhance members' team confidence and performance by fostering members' identification with the team. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Quantifying uncertainty on sediment loads using bootstrap confidence intervals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slaets, Johanna I. F.; Piepho, Hans-Peter; Schmitter, Petra; Hilger, Thomas; Cadisch, Georg

    2017-01-01

    Load estimates are more informative than constituent concentrations alone, as they allow quantification of on- and off-site impacts of environmental processes concerning pollutants, nutrients and sediment, such as soil fertility loss, reservoir sedimentation and irrigation channel siltation. While statistical models used to predict constituent concentrations have been developed considerably over the last few years, measures of uncertainty on constituent loads are rarely reported. Loads are the product of two predictions, constituent concentration and discharge, integrated over a time period, which does not make it straightforward to produce a standard error or a confidence interval. In this paper, a linear mixed model is used to estimate sediment concentrations. A bootstrap method is then developed that accounts for the uncertainty in the concentration and discharge predictions, allowing temporal correlation in the constituent data, and can be used when data transformations are required. The method was tested for a small watershed in Northwest Vietnam for the period 2010-2011. The results showed that confidence intervals were asymmetric, with the highest uncertainty in the upper limit, and that a load of 6262 Mg year-1 had a 95 % confidence interval of (4331, 12 267) in 2010 and a load of 5543 Mg an interval of (3593, 8975) in 2011. Additionally, the approach demonstrated that direct estimates from the data were biased downwards compared to bootstrap median estimates. These results imply that constituent loads predicted from regression-type water quality models could frequently be underestimating sediment yields and their environmental impact.

  16. Confidence intervals for the MMPI-2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munley, P H

    1991-08-01

    The confidence intervals for the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI-2) clinical scales were investigated. Based on the clinical scale reliabilities published in the MMPI-2 manual, estimated true scores, standard errors of measurement for estimated true scores, and 95% confidence intervals centered around estimated true scores were calculated at 5-point MMPI-2 T-score intervals. The relationships between obtained T-scores, estimated true T-scores, scale reliabilities, and confidence intervals are discussed. The possible role of error measurement in defining scale high point and code types is noted.

  17. Confidence rating of marine eutrophication assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Murray, Ciarán; Andersen, Jesper Harbo; Kaartokallio, Hermanni

    2011-01-01

    This report presents the development of a methodology for assessing confidence in eutrophication status classifications. The method can be considered as a secondary assessment, supporting the primary assessment of eutrophication status. The confidence assessment is based on a transparent scoring...... of the 'value' of the indicators on which the primary assessment is made. Such secondary assessment of confidence represents a first step towards linking status classification with information regarding their accuracy and precision and ultimately a tool for improving or targeting actions to improve the health...

  18. Expenditure, Confidence, and Uncertainty: Identifying Shocks to Consumer Confidence Using Daily Data

    OpenAIRE

    Lachowska, Marta

    2013-01-01

    The importance of consumer confidence in stimulating economic activity is a disputed issue in macroeconomics. Do changes in confidence represent autonomous fluctuations in optimism, independent of information on economic fundamentals, or are they a reflection of economic news? I study this question by using high-frequency microdata on spending and consumer confidence, and I find that consumer confidence contains information relevant to predicting spending, independent from other indicators. T...

  19. Confidence and Construal Framing: When Confidence Increases versus Decreases Information Processing

    OpenAIRE

    Echo Wen Wan; Derek D. Rucker

    2013-01-01

    A large literature demonstrates that people process information more carefully in states of low compared to high confidence. This article presents an alternative hypothesis that either high or low confidence can increase or decrease information processing on the basis of how information is construed. Five experiments demonstrate two sets of findings supporting this alternative formulation. First, low confidence leads people to focus on concrete construals, whereas high confidence leads people...

  20. European Businesses Remain Confident about China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    @@ On June 30th, 2009, the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China launches its sixth annual European Chamber Business Confidence Survey, which is published in partnership with Roland Berger Strategy Consultants.

  1. Weighting Mean and Variability during Confidence Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Gardelle, Vincent; Mamassian, Pascal

    2015-01-01

    Humans can not only perform some visual tasks with great precision, they can also judge how good they are in these tasks. However, it remains unclear how observers produce such metacognitive evaluations, and how these evaluations might be dissociated from the performance in the visual task. Here, we hypothesized that some stimulus variables could affect confidence judgments above and beyond their impact on performance. In a motion categorization task on moving dots, we manipulated the mean and the variance of the motion directions, to obtain a low-mean low-variance condition and a high-mean high-variance condition with matched performances. Critically, in terms of confidence, observers were not indifferent between these two conditions. Observers exhibited marked preferences, which were heterogeneous across individuals, but stable within each observer when assessed one week later. Thus, confidence and performance are dissociable and observers’ confidence judgments put different weights on the stimulus variables that limit performance. PMID:25793275

  2. When business is a confidence game.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutchinson, J W; Alba, J W

    2001-06-01

    When it comes to making business decisions, being overconfident about your choices can actually be more harmful than just guessing. Here's how managers can calibrate their confidence levels-and avoid being too sure in the wrong situations.

  3. Analysis and classification of the upper lip aesthetic unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raphael, Peter; Harris, Ryan; Harris, Scott W

    2013-09-01

    Disharmonies of the upper lip aesthetic unit generally stem from tall ergotrids and/or thin lips. Comprehension and correction of such defects has been stifled by a lack of metrics and organized systems of diagnosis and treatment. The philtral-labial score was devised to better analyze the upper lip region. Measurements were made with Adobe Photoshop CS6, and computations were performed on a standard calculator. A retrospective medical records review identified 908 patients of the senior authors' (P.R. and S.W.H.) practices who underwent perioral rejuvenation between January 1, 2001, and July 31, 2012. Two hundred patients were randomly selected and assessed for disharmonies in three surveys that sequentially built on data points provided. When preoperative anteroposterior and lateral photographs, dental show measurements, and philtral-labial scores were available, diagnostic concordance between the authors approached 100 percent. Pattern analysis resulted in a classification system (labral classification system), designating patients as either type 0 (no defects), type 1 (thin upper lip), type 2 (long philtrum), or type 3 (both) defects. Characteristic dental show values, philtral-labial scores, and suggested treatments were paired with each type. The labral classification system and its associated analytical tools serve as useful references in consultation, simplify discussion of patients with upper lip defects, furnish a practical alternative to complex algorithms, enable documentation of changes, and facilitate analysis of large sample sizes. When implemented judiciously, the tools described in this article will help surgeons confidently address upper lip problems by streamlining accurate diagnosis and guiding proper treatment.

  4. Toward a Theory of Assurance Case Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-01

    assurance case claim. The framework is based on the notion of eliminative induction—the princi- ple (first put forward by Francis Bacon ) that confidence in...eliminative induction. As first proposed by Francis Bacon [Schum 2001] and extended by L. Jonathan Cohen [Cohen 1970, 1977, 1989], eliminative induction is...eliminative in- duction—the principle (first put forward by Francis Bacon ) that confidence in the truth of a hypothesis (or claim) increases as reasons for

  5. Better Confidence Intervals for Importance Sampling

    OpenAIRE

    HALIS SAK; WOLFGANG HÖRMANN; JOSEF LEYDOLD

    2010-01-01

    It is well known that for highly skewed distributions the standard method of using the t statistic for the confidence interval of the mean does not give robust results. This is an important problem for importance sampling (IS) as its final distribution is often skewed due to a heavy tailed weight distribution. In this paper, we first explain Hall's transformation and its variants to correct the confidence interval of the mean and then evaluate the performance of these methods for two numerica...

  6. Confidence in leadership among the newly qualified.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayliss-Pratt, Lisa; Morley, Mary; Bagley, Liz; Alderson, Steven

    2013-10-23

    The Francis report highlighted the importance of strong leadership from health professionals but it is unclear how prepared those who are newly qualified feel to take on a leadership role. We aimed to assess the confidence of newly qualified health professionals working in the West Midlands in the different competencies of the NHS Leadership Framework. Most respondents felt confident in their abilities to demonstrate personal qualities and work with others, but less so at managing or improving services or setting direction.

  7. Confidence in value-based choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Martino, Benedetto; Fleming, Stephen M.; Garrett, Neil; Dolan, Raymond

    2013-01-01

    Summary Decisions are never perfect with confidence in one’s choices fluctuating over time. How subjective confidence and valuation of choice options interact at the level of brain and behavior is unknown. Using a dynamic model of the decision process we show that confidence reflects the evolution of a decision variable over time, explaining the observed relation between confidence, value, accuracy and reaction time. As predicted by our dynamic model, we show that an fMRI signal in human ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) reflects both value comparison and confidence in the value comparison process. Crucially, individuals varied in how they related confidence to accuracy, allowing us to show that this introspective ability is predicted by a measure of functional connectivity between vmPFC and rostrolateral prefrontal cortex (rlPFC). Our findings provide a mechanistic link between noise in value comparison and metacognitive awareness of choice, enabling us both to want and to express knowledge of what we want. PMID:23222911

  8. Closed-form fiducial confidence intervals for some functions of independent binomial parameters with comparisons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnamoorthy, K; Lee, Meesook; Zhang, Dan

    2017-02-01

    Approximate closed-form confidence intervals (CIs) for estimating the difference, relative risk, odds ratio, and linear combination of proportions are proposed. These CIs are developed using the fiducial approach and the modified normal-based approximation to the percentiles of a linear combination of independent random variables. These confidence intervals are easy to calculate as the computation requires only the percentiles of beta distributions. The proposed confidence intervals are compared with the popular score confidence intervals with respect to coverage probabilities and expected widths. Comparison studies indicate that the proposed confidence intervals are comparable with the corresponding score confidence intervals, and better in some cases, for all the problems considered. The methods are illustrated using several examples.

  9. Inferring high-confidence human protein-protein interactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Xueping

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background As numerous experimental factors drive the acquisition, identification, and interpretation of protein-protein interactions (PPIs, aggregated assemblies of human PPI data invariably contain experiment-dependent noise. Ascertaining the reliability of PPIs collected from these diverse studies and scoring them to infer high-confidence networks is a non-trivial task. Moreover, a large number of PPIs share the same number of reported occurrences, making it impossible to distinguish the reliability of these PPIs and rank-order them. For example, for the data analyzed here, we found that the majority (>83% of currently available human PPIs have been reported only once. Results In this work, we proposed an unsupervised statistical approach to score a set of diverse, experimentally identified PPIs from nine primary databases to create subsets of high-confidence human PPI networks. We evaluated this ranking method by comparing it with other methods and assessing their ability to retrieve protein associations from a number of diverse and independent reference sets. These reference sets contain known biological data that are either directly or indirectly linked to interactions between proteins. We quantified the average effect of using ranked protein interaction data to retrieve this information and showed that, when compared to randomly ranked interaction data sets, the proposed method created a larger enrichment (~134% than either ranking based on the hypergeometric test (~109% or occurrence ranking (~46%. Conclusions From our evaluations, it was clear that ranked interactions were always of value because higher-ranked PPIs had a higher likelihood of retrieving high-confidence experimental data. Reducing the noise inherent in aggregated experimental PPIs via our ranking scheme further increased the accuracy and enrichment of PPIs derived from a number of biologically relevant data sets. These results suggest that using our high-confidence

  10. Evaluation of the efficacy of a short-course, personalized self-management and intensive spa therapy intervention as active prevention of musculoskeletal disorders of the upper extremities (Muska): a research protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanhers, Charlotte; Pereira, Bruno; Gay, Chloé; Hérisson, Christian; Levyckyj, Christine; Dupeyron, Arnaud; Coudeyre, Emmanuel

    2016-12-09

    Musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) constitute a major occupational health problem in the working population, substantially impacting the quality of life of employees. They also cause considerable economic cost to the healthcare system, with, notably, the reimbursement of treatments and compensation for lost income. MSDs manifest as localized pain or functional difficulty in one or more anatomical areas, such as the cervical spine, shoulder, elbow, hand, and wrist. Although prevalence varies depending on the region considered and the method of assessment, a prevalence of 30% is found in different epidemiological studies. The disease needs to be prevented, not only for medical and economic reasons, but also for legal reasons, owing to the requirement of assessing occupational risks. The strategy envisaged may thus revolve around active, multimodal prevention that has employees fully involved at the heart of their care. Although physical exercise is widely recommended, few studies with a good level of evidence have enabled us to base a complete, well-constructed intervention on exercise that can be offered as secondary prevention in these disorders. A prospective, multicenter, comparative (intervention arm vs. control arm), randomized (immediate vs. later treatment) study using Zelen's design. This study falls under active prevention of MSDs of the upper extremities (UE-MSDs). Participants are workers aged between 18 and 65 years with latent or symptomatic MSDS, with any type of job or workstation, with or without an history of sick leave. The primary aim is to show the superiority at 3 months of a combination of spa therapy, exercise, and self-management workshops for 6 days over usual care in the management of MSDs in terms of employee functional capacity in personal and professional daily life. Secondary aims are to assess the benefit of the intervention in terms of pain, quality of life, and accumulated duration of sick leave. This randomized controlled trial is

  11. Probiotic Supplements Beneficially Affect Tryptophan–Kynurenine Metabolism and Reduce the Incidence of Upper Respiratory Tract Infections in Trained Athletes: A Randomized, Double-Blinded, Placebo-Controlled Trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbara Strasser

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: Prolonged intense exercise has been associated with transient suppression of immune function and an increased risk of infections. In this context, the catabolism of amino acid tryptophan via kynurenine may play an important role. The present study examined the effect of a probiotic supplement on the incidence of upper respiratory tract infections (URTI and the metabolism of aromatic amino acids after exhaustive aerobic exercise in trained athletes during three months of winter training. Methods: Thirty-three highly trained individuals were randomly assigned to probiotic (PRO, n = 17 or placebo (PLA, n = 16 groups using double blind procedures, receiving either 1 × 1010 colony forming units (CFU of a multi-species probiotic (Bifidobacterium bifidum W23, Bifidobacterium lactis W51, Enterococcus faecium W54, Lactobacillus acidophilus W22, Lactobacillus brevis W63, and Lactococcus lactis W58 or placebo once per day for 12 weeks. The serum concentrations of tryptophan, phenylalanine and their primary catabolites kynurenine and tyrosine, as well as the concentration of the immune activation marker neopterin were determined at baseline and after 12 weeks, both at rest and immediately after exercise. Participants completed a daily diary to identify any infectious symptoms. Results: After 12 weeks of treatment, post-exercise tryptophan levels were lowered by 11% (a significant change in the PLA group compared to the concentrations measured before the intervention (p = 0.02, but remained unchanged in the PRO group. The ratio of subjects taking the placebo who experienced one or more URTI symptoms was increased 2.2-fold compared to those on probiotics (PLA 0.79, PRO 0.35; p = 0.02. Conclusion: Data indicate reduced exercise-induced tryptophan degradation rates in the PRO group. Daily supplementation with probiotics limited exercise-induced drops in tryptophan levels and reduced the incidence of URTI, however, did not benefit athletic

  12. Increasing Confidence to Decrease Reticence: A Qualitative Action Research in Second Language Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doqaruni, Vahid Rahmani

    2015-01-01

    This study reports on an action research on increasing the English as a Foreign Language (EFL) students' confidence in speaking. Participants involved in this study were 16 male university students who had an upper-intermediate level of English. Extra speaking activities were incorporated into the classroom for 8 successive weeks. Insights into…

  13. Increasing Confidence to Decrease Reticence: A Qualitative Action Research in Second Language Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doqaruni, Vahid Rahmani

    2015-01-01

    This study reports on an action research on increasing the English as a Foreign Language (EFL) students' confidence in speaking. Participants involved in this study were 16 male university students who had an upper-intermediate level of English. Extra speaking activities were incorporated into the classroom for 8 successive weeks. Insights into…

  14. Increasing Product Confidence-Shifting Paradigms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Marla; Kashyap, Vishal; Cheung, Mee-Shew

    2015-01-01

    Leaders in the pharmaceutical, medical device, and food industries expressed a unilateral concern over product confidence throughout the total product lifecycle, an unsettling fact for these leaders to manage given that their products affect the lives of millions of people each year. Fueled by the heparin incident of intentional adulteration in 2008, initial efforts for increasing product confidence were focused on improving the confidence of incoming materials, with a belief that supplier performance must be the root cause. As in the heparin case, concern over supplier performance extended deep into the supply chain to include suppliers of the suppliers-which is often a blind spot for pharmaceutical, device, and food manufacturers. Resolved to address the perceived lack of supplier performance, these U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-regulated industries began to adopt the supplier relationship management strategy, developed by the automotive industry, that emphasizes "management" of suppliers for the betterment of the manufacturers. Current product and supplier management strategies, however, have not led to a significant improvement in product confidence. As a result of the enduring concern by industry leaders over the lack of product confidence, Xavier University launched the Integrity of Supply Initiative in 2012 with a team of industry leaders and FDA officials. Through a methodical research approach, data generated by the pharmaceutical, medical device, and food manufacturers surprisingly pointed to themselves as a source of the lack of product confidence, and revealed that manufacturers either unknowingly increase the potential for error or can control/prevent many aspects of product confidence failure. It is only through this paradigm shift that manufacturers can work collaboratively with their suppliers as equal partners, instead of viewing their suppliers as "lesser" entities needing to be controlled. The basis of this shift provides manufacturers

  15. ADAM SMITH: THE INVISIBLE HAND OR CONFIDENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Luis, Gache

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In 1776 Adam Smith raised the matter that an invisible hand was the one which moved the markets to obtain its efficiency. Despite in the present paper we are going to raise the hypothesis, that this invisible hand is in fact the confidence that each person feels when he is going to do business. That in addition it is unique, because it is different from the confidence of the others and that is a variable nonlinear that essentially is ligatured to respective personal histories. For that we are going to take as its bases the paper by Leopoldo Abadía (2009, with respect to the financial economy crisis that happened in 2007-2008, to evidence the form in which confidence operates. Therefore the contribution that we hope to do with this paper is to emphasize that, the level of confidence of the different actors, is the one which really moves the markets, (therefore the economy and that the crisis of the subprime mortgages is a confidence crisis at world-wide level.

  16. Farmers' confidence in vaccinating badgers against bovine tuberculosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enticott, G; Maye, D; Ilbery, B; Fisher, R; Kirwan, J

    2012-02-25

    This paper examines UK farmers' levels of confidence in vaccinating badgers against bovine tuberculosis (bTB) and their trust in the Government's ability to deal with bTB. In 2010, a badger vaccine based on the BCG vaccine was licensed following field trials and used as part of the UK Government's Badger Vaccination Deployment Project. A stratified random sample of cattle farmers in five different locations of England was surveyed using a telephone survey to elicit their views of badger vaccination. The survey provided a total of 341 responses with a response rate of 80 per cent. Results suggest that the farmers are cautious about badger vaccination, appearing to be neither overly confident nor unconfident in it. However, the farmers did not reveal high levels of trust in the Government to manage bTB policy or badger vaccination. There were no differences in the levels of confidence or trust between farms that were under bTB restrictions at the time of the survey and those that were not or between farms with historically high levels of bTB. Analysis of principal components suggests that 33 per cent of the farmers accepted badger vaccination, but that acceptance is dependent on the wider social and political environment.

  17. The galactocentric radius dependent upper mass limit of young star clusters: stochastic star formation ruled out

    CERN Document Server

    Pflamm-Altenburg, Jan; Kroupa, Pavel

    2013-01-01

    It is widely accepted that the distribution function of the masses of young star clusters is universal and can be purely interpreted as a probability density distribution function with a constant upper mass limit. As a result of this picture the masses of the most-massive objects are exclusively determined by the size of the sample. Here we show, with very high confidence, that the masses of the most-massive young star clusters in M33 decrease with increasing galactocentric radius in contradiction to the expectations from a model of a randomly sampled constant cluster mass function with a constant upper mass limit. Pure stochastic star formation is thereby ruled out. We use this example to elucidate how naive analysis of data can lead to unphysical conclusions.

  18. Distinguishing highly confident accurate and inaccurate memory: insights about relevant and irrelevant influences on memory confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chua, Elizabeth F.; Hannula, Deborah E.; Ranganath, Charan

    2012-01-01

    It is generally believed that accuracy and confidence in one’s memory are related, but there are many instances when they diverge. Accordingly, it is important to disentangle the factors which contribute to memory accuracy and confidence, especially those factors that contribute to confidence, but not accuracy. We used eye movements to separately measure fluent cue processing, the target recognition experience, and relative evidence assessment on recognition confidence and accuracy. Eye movements were monitored during a face-scene associative recognition task, in which participants first saw a scene cue, followed by a forced-choice recognition test for the associated face, with confidence ratings. Eye movement indices of the target recognition experience were largely indicative of accuracy, and showed a relationship to confidence for accurate decisions. In contrast, eye movements during the scene cue raised the possibility that more fluent cue processing was related to higher confidence for both accurate and inaccurate recognition decisions. In a second experiment, we manipulated cue familiarity, and therefore cue fluency. Participants showed higher confidence for cue-target associations for when the cue was more familiar, especially for incorrect responses. These results suggest that over-reliance on cue familiarity and under-reliance on the target recognition experience may lead to erroneous confidence. PMID:22171810

  19. Distinguishing highly confident accurate and inaccurate memory: insights about relevant and irrelevant influences on memory confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chua, Elizabeth F; Hannula, Deborah E; Ranganath, Charan

    2012-01-01

    It is generally believed that accuracy and confidence in one's memory are related, but there are many instances when they diverge. Accordingly it is important to disentangle the factors that contribute to memory accuracy and confidence, especially those factors that contribute to confidence, but not accuracy. We used eye movements to separately measure fluent cue processing, the target recognition experience, and relative evidence assessment on recognition confidence and accuracy. Eye movements were monitored during a face-scene associative recognition task, in which participants first saw a scene cue, followed by a forced-choice recognition test for the associated face, with confidence ratings. Eye movement indices of the target recognition experience were largely indicative of accuracy, and showed a relationship to confidence for accurate decisions. In contrast, eye movements during the scene cue raised the possibility that more fluent cue processing was related to higher confidence for both accurate and inaccurate recognition decisions. In a second experiment we manipulated cue familiarity, and therefore cue fluency. Participants showed higher confidence for cue-target associations for when the cue was more familiar, especially for incorrect responses. These results suggest that over-reliance on cue familiarity and under-reliance on the target recognition experience may lead to erroneous confidence.

  20. Coefficient Omega Bootstrap Confidence Intervals: Nonnormal Distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padilla, Miguel A.; Divers, Jasmin

    2013-01-01

    The performance of the normal theory bootstrap (NTB), the percentile bootstrap (PB), and the bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) bootstrap confidence intervals (CIs) for coefficient omega was assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation under conditions not previously investigated. Of particular interests were nonnormal Likert-type and binary items.…

  1. Detecting Disease in Radiographs with Intuitive Confidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Jaeger

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper argues in favor of a specific type of confidence for use in computer-aided diagnosis and disease classification, namely, sine/cosine values of angles represented by points on the unit circle. The paper shows how this confidence is motivated by Chinese medicine and how sine/cosine values are directly related with the two forces Yin and Yang. The angle for which sine and cosine are equal (45° represents the state of equilibrium between Yin and Yang, which is a state of nonduality that indicates neither normality nor abnormality in terms of disease classification. The paper claims that the proposed confidence is intuitive and can be readily understood by physicians. The paper underpins this thesis with theoretical results in neural signal processing, stating that a sine/cosine relationship between the actual input signal and the perceived (learned input is key to neural learning processes. As a practical example, the paper shows how to use the proposed confidence values to highlight manifestations of tuberculosis in frontal chest X-rays.

  2. Diagnosing dementia with confidence by GPs.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hout, H.P.J. van; Vernooij-Dassen, M.J.F.J.; Stalman, W.A.B.

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Earlier reports suggest limited clinical reasoning and substantial uncertainty of GPs in assessing patients suspected of dementia. OBJECTIVE: To explore the predictors of GPs to decide on the presence and absence of dementia as well as the predictors of diagnostic confidence of GPs.

  3. The confidence effects of fiscal consolidations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.M.W.J. Beetsma; J. Cimadomo; O. Furtuna; M. Giuliodori

    2014-01-01

    We explore how fiscal consolidations affect private sector confidence, a possible channel for the fiscal transmission that has received particular attention recently as a result of governments embarking on austerity trajectories in the aftermath of the crisis. Panel regressions based on the action-b

  4. The confidence effects of fiscal consolidations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Beetsma; J. Cimadomo; O. Furtuna; M. Giuliodori

    2015-01-01

    We explore how fiscal consolidations affect private sector confidence, a possible channel for the transmission of fiscal policy that has received particular attention recently as a result of governments embarking on austerity trajectories in the aftermath of the crisis. Panel regressions based on th

  5. Confident Communication: Speaking Tips for Educators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Douglas A.

    This resource book seeks to provide the building blocks needed for public speaking while eliminating the fear factor. The book explains how educators can perfect their oratorical capabilities as well as enjoy the security, confidence, and support needed to create and deliver dynamic speeches. Following an Introduction: A Message for Teachers,…

  6. Diagnosing dementia with confidence by GPs.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hout, H.P.J. van; Vernooij-Dassen, M.J.F.J.; Stalman, W.A.B.

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Earlier reports suggest limited clinical reasoning and substantial uncertainty of GPs in assessing patients suspected of dementia. OBJECTIVE: To explore the predictors of GPs to decide on the presence and absence of dementia as well as the predictors of diagnostic confidence of GPs. DESI

  7. Computation of confidence intervals for Poisson processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilar-Saavedra, J. A.

    2000-07-01

    We present an algorithm which allows a fast numerical computation of Feldman-Cousins confidence intervals for Poisson processes, even when the number of background events is relatively large. This algorithm incorporates an appropriate treatment of the singularities that arise as a consequence of the discreteness of the variable.

  8. Computation of confidence intervals for Poisson processes

    CERN Document Server

    Aguilar-Saavedra, J A

    2000-01-01

    We present an algorithm which allows a fast numerical computation of Feldman-Cousins confidence intervals for Poisson processes, even when the number of background events is relatively large. This algorithm incorporates an appropriate treatment of the singularities that arise as a consequence of the discreteness of the variable.

  9. Confidence building in emerging stock markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Laeven, L.; Perotti, E.C.

    2001-01-01

    Investor confidence in reliable property rights and stable, market-oriented policies are a necessary condition for financial integration and the development of emerging stock markets. Announced market-oriented policies may be reversed, however, and are initially not fully credible. We argue that sus

  10. Confidence building in emerging stock markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perotti, E.C.; Laeven, L.; van Oijen, P.

    2000-01-01

    Investor confidence in reliable property rights and stable, market-oriented policies are a necessary condition for financial integration and the development of emerging stock markets. Announced market-oriented policies may be reversed, however, and are initially not fully credible. We argue that sus

  11. Confidence building in emerging stock markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Laeven, L.; Perotti, E.C.

    2001-01-01

    Investor confidence is a necessary condition for the development of emerging markets. Investors recognize that since market-oriented reform policies may be reversed or hindered, they face the risk of ex post policy changes with redistributive impact on investment returns. We argue that a sustained p

  12. The confidence effects of fiscal consolidations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beetsma, R.; Cimadomo, J.; Furtuna, O.; Giuliodori, M.

    2015-01-01

    We explore how fiscal consolidations affect private sector confidence, a possible channel for the transmission of fiscal policy that has received particular attention recently as a result of governments embarking on austerity trajectories in the aftermath of the crisis. Panel regressions based on

  13. Observed Consultation: Confidence and Accuracy of Assessors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tweed, Mike; Ingham, Christopher

    2010-01-01

    Judgments made by the assessors observing consultations are widely used in the assessment of medical students. The aim of this research was to study judgment accuracy and confidence and the relationship between these. Assessors watched recordings of consultations, scoring the students on: a checklist of items; attributes of consultation; a…

  14. The confidence effects of fiscal consolidations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beetsma, R.M.W.J.; Cimadomo, J.; Furtuna, O.; Giuliodori, M.

    2014-01-01

    We explore how fiscal consolidations affect private sector confidence, a possible channel for the fiscal transmission that has received particular attention recently as a result of governments embarking on austerity trajectories in the aftermath of the crisis. Panel regressions based on the

  15. Observed Consultation: Confidence and Accuracy of Assessors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tweed, Mike; Ingham, Christopher

    2010-01-01

    Judgments made by the assessors observing consultations are widely used in the assessment of medical students. The aim of this research was to study judgment accuracy and confidence and the relationship between these. Assessors watched recordings of consultations, scoring the students on: a checklist of items; attributes of consultation; a…

  16. Evaluating Measures of Optimism and Sport Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fogarty, Gerard J.; Perera, Harsha N.; Furst, Andrea J.; Thomas, Patrick R.

    2016-01-01

    The psychometric properties of the Life Orientation Test-Revised (LOT-R), the Sport Confidence Inventory (SCI), and the Carolina SCI (CSCI) were examined in a study involving 260 athletes. The study aimed to test the dimensional structure, convergent and divergent validity, and invariance over competition level of scores generated by these…

  17. Confidence building in emerging stock markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perotti, E.C.; Laeven, L.; van Oijen, P.

    2000-01-01

    Investor confidence in reliable property rights and stable, market-oriented policies are a necessary condition for financial integration and the development of emerging stock markets. Announced market-oriented policies may be reversed, however, and are initially not fully credible. We argue that

  18. Social acceptance and population confidence in telehealth in Quebec.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poder, Thomas G; Bellemare, Christian A; Bédard, Suzanne K; Lemieux, Renald

    2015-02-21

    Access to healthcare in remote areas is difficult and telehealth could be a promising avenue if accepted by the population. The aim of this study is to assess social acceptance and population confidence in telehealth in the Province of Quebec. We conducted a survey using a questionnaire assessing the social acceptance of and confidence level in telehealth. Two strategies were used: 1) paper questionnaires were sent to two hospitals in Quebec; and 2) online questionnaires were randomly sent by a firm specialized in online survey to a representative sample of the population of the Province of Quebec. Respondents were all residents of the Province of Quebec and 18 years and older. Questions were scored with a four-level Likert scale. A total of 1816 questionnaires were analyzed (229 written and 1,587 online questionnaires). The socio-demographic variables in our samples, especially the online questionnaires, were fairly representative of Quebec's population. Overall, social acceptance scored at 77.71% and confidence level at 65.76%. Both scores were higher in the case of treatment (3 scenarios were proposed) vs. diagnosis (p < 0.05). No difference was found when respondents were asked to respond for themselves and for a member of their family, which demonstrates a true interest in telehealth in Quebec. In addition, we found a significant difference (p < 0.05) between written and online questionnaires regarding social acceptance (80.75% vs. 77.33%) and confidence level (74.84% vs. 64.55%). These differences may be due to social desirability or avidity bias in the written questionnaires. Our results suggest that the population in Quebec encourages the development of telehealth for real time diagnosis and long distance treatment for regions deprived of healthcare professionals.

  19. Tests and Confidence Intervals for an Extended Variance Component Using the Modified Likelihood Ratio Statistic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Ole Fredslund; Frydenberg, Morten; Jensen, Jens Ledet

    2005-01-01

    The large deviation modified likelihood ratio statistic is studied for testing a variance component equal to a specified value. Formulas are presented in the general balanced case, whereas in the unbalanced case only the one-way random effects model is studied. Simulation studies are presented, s......, showing that the normal approximation to the large deviation modified likelihood ratio statistic gives confidence intervals for variance components with coverage probabilities very close to the nominal confidence coefficient....

  20. The Effect of Adaptive Confidence Strategies in Computer-Assisted Instruction on Learning and Learner Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, Richard Daniel

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to investigate the effects of including adaptive confidence strategies in instructionally sound computer-assisted instruction (CAI) on learning and learner confidence. Seventy-one general educational development (GED) learners recruited from various GED learning centers at community colleges in the southeast United…

  1. The Effect of Adaptive Confidence Strategies in Computer-Assisted Instruction on Learning and Learner Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, Richard Daniel

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to investigate the effects of including adaptive confidence strategies in instructionally sound computer-assisted instruction (CAI) on learning and learner confidence. Seventy-one general educational development (GED) learners recruited from various GED learning centers at community colleges in the southeast United…

  2. Nurturing Confidence in Preservice Elementary Science Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bleicher, Robert E.

    2007-12-01

    This study examined changes in personal science teaching self-efficacy (PSTE), outcome expectancy (STOE), and science conceptual understanding and relationships among these in preservice teachers. Seventy preservice teachers enrolled in science teaching methods courses participated in this study. PSTE, STOE, and science conceptual understanding increased significantly during participation in the course. The study established that novice learners with minimal prior knowledge could not be expected to understand and employ core concepts in their learning schema without extensive guidance. The relationship between science learning confidence and science teaching confidence has not been theoretically delineated in the area of science teacher education. Findings suggest there may be important connections between the 2 for preservice teachers that would be fruitful areas for future research.

  3. Confidence leak in perceptual decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahnev, Dobromir; Koizumi, Ai; McCurdy, Li Yan; D’Esposito, Mark; Lau, Hakwan

    2015-01-01

    We live in a continuous environment in which the visual scene changes on a slow timescale. It has been shown that, to exploit such environmental stability, the brain creates a “continuity field” such that objects seen seconds ago influence the perception of current objects. What is unknown is whether a similar mechanism exists at the level of our metacognitive representations. In three experiments we demonstrate a robust inter-task “confidence leak” that cannot be explained by response priming or attentional fluctuations. Observers’ ability to modulate this confidence leak predicted higher capacity for metacognition as well as greater gray matter volume in the prefrontal cortex. A model based on normative principles from Bayesian inference explained the results by postulating that observers subjectively estimate the perceptual signal strength in a stable environment. These results point to the existence of a novel metacognitive mechanism mediated by regions in prefrontal cortex. PMID:26408037

  4. ;Agreement; in the IPCC Confidence measure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehg, William; Staley, Kent

    2017-02-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has, in its most recent Assessment Report (AR5), articulated guidelines for evaluating and communicating uncertainty that include a qualitative scale of confidence. We examine one factor included in that scale: the ;degree of agreement.; Some discussions of the degree of agreement in AR5 suggest that the IPCC is employing a consensus-oriented social epistemology. We consider the application of the degree of agreement factor in practice in AR5. Our findings, though based on a limited examination, suggest that agreement attributions do not so much track the overall consensus among investigators as the degree to which relevant research findings substantively converge in offering support for IPCC claims. We articulate a principle guiding confidence attributions in AR5 that centers not on consensus but on the notion of support. In concluding, we tentatively suggest a pluralist approach to the notion of support.

  5. Learning about confidence intervals with software R

    OpenAIRE

    Gariela Gonçalves; Luís Afonso; Marta Ferreira; Teresa Ferro; Nascimento, Maria M.

    2013-01-01

    This work was to study the feasibility of implementing a teaching method that employs software, in a Computational Mathematics course, involving students and teachers through the use of the statistical software R in carrying out practical work, such as strengthening the traditional teaching. The statistical inference, namely the determination of confidence intervals, was the content selected for this experience. It was intended show, first of all, that it is possible to promote, through t...

  6. Social media sentiment and consumer confidence

    OpenAIRE

    Piet J.H. Daas; Puts, Marco J.H.

    2014-01-01

    Changes in the sentiment of Dutch public social media messages were compared with changes in monthly consumer confidence over a period of three-and-a-half years, revealing that both were highly correlated (up to r = 0.9) and that both series cointegrated. This phenomenon is predominantly affected by changes in the sentiment of all Dutch public Facebook messages. The inclusion of various selections of public Twitter messages improved this association and the response to changes in sentiment. G...

  7. Understanding Confidence Intervals With Visual Representations

    OpenAIRE

    Navruz, Bilgin; DELEN, Erhan

    2014-01-01

    In the present paper, we showed how confidence intervals (CIs) are valuable and useful in research studies when they are used in the correct form with correct interpretations. The sixth edition of the APA (2010) Publication Manual strongly recommended reporting CIs in research studies, and it was described as “the best reporting strategy” (p. 34). Misconceptions and correct interpretations of CIs were presented from several textbooks. In addition, limitations of the null hypothesis statistica...

  8. Self-Confidence and Social Interactions

    OpenAIRE

    Roland Benabou; Jean Tirole

    2000-01-01

    This paper studies the interactions between an individual's self esteem and his social environment in the workplace, at school, and in personal relationships. Because a person generally has only imperfect knowledge of his own abilities, people who derive benefits from his performance (parent, spouse, friend, teacher, manager, etc.) have incentives to manipulate his self confidence. We first study situations where an informed principal chooses an incentive structure, such as offering payments ...

  9. Confidence Sets for a Change-Point.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1986-10-01

    probability credible set for j. In fact, even without the explicit evaluation in (1), one knows from a general theorem of Stein (1965) and Hora and...confidence sets with smallest expected measure, Ann. Statist. , 10, 1283-94. Hora , R. B. and Buehler, R. J. (1966), Fiducial theory and invariant...simple cumulative sum type statistic for the change-point problem -’-"C with zero -one observations, Biometrika 67, 79-84. Raferty, A. E. and Akman, V

  10. Calculation of Confidence Intervals for the Maximum Magnitude of Earthquakes in Different Seismotectonic Zones of Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salamat, Mona; Zare, Mehdi; Holschneider, Matthias; Zöller, Gert

    2017-03-01

    The problem of estimating the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m_max has attracted growing attention in recent years. Due to sparse data, the role of uncertainties becomes crucial. In this work, we determine the uncertainties related to the maximum magnitude in terms of confidence intervals. Using an earthquake catalog of Iran, m_max is estimated for different predefined levels of confidence in six seismotectonic zones. Assuming the doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution as a statistical model for earthquake magnitudes, confidence intervals for the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes are calculated in each zone. While the lower limit of the confidence interval is the magnitude of the maximum observed event,the upper limit is calculated from the catalog and the statistical model. For this aim, we use the original catalog which no declustering methods applied on as well as a declustered version of the catalog. Based on the study by Holschneider et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 101(4):1649-1659, 2011), the confidence interval for m_max is frequently unbounded, especially if high levels of confidence are required. In this case, no information is gained from the data. Therefore, we elaborate for which settings finite confidence levels are obtained. In this work, Iran is divided into six seismotectonic zones, namely Alborz, Azerbaijan, Zagros, Makran, Kopet Dagh, Central Iran. Although calculations of the confidence interval in Central Iran and Zagros seismotectonic zones are relatively acceptable for meaningful levels of confidence, results in Kopet Dagh, Alborz, Azerbaijan and Makran are not that much promising. The results indicate that estimating m_max from an earthquake catalog for reasonable levels of confidence alone is almost impossible.

  11. Calculation of Confidence Intervals for the Maximum Magnitude of Earthquakes in Different Seismotectonic Zones of Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salamat, Mona; Zare, Mehdi; Holschneider, Matthias; Zöller, Gert

    2016-10-01

    The problem of estimating the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m_max has attracted growing attention in recent years. Due to sparse data, the role of uncertainties becomes crucial. In this work, we determine the uncertainties related to the maximum magnitude in terms of confidence intervals. Using an earthquake catalog of Iran, m_max is estimated for different predefined levels of confidence in six seismotectonic zones. Assuming the doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution as a statistical model for earthquake magnitudes, confidence intervals for the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes are calculated in each zone. While the lower limit of the confidence interval is the magnitude of the maximum observed event,the upper limit is calculated from the catalog and the statistical model. For this aim, we use the original catalog which no declustering methods applied on as well as a declustered version of the catalog. Based on the study by Holschneider et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 101(4):1649-1659, 2011), the confidence interval for m_max is frequently unbounded, especially if high levels of confidence are required. In this case, no information is gained from the data. Therefore, we elaborate for which settings finite confidence levels are obtained. In this work, Iran is divided into six seismotectonic zones, namely Alborz, Azerbaijan, Zagros, Makran, Kopet Dagh, Central Iran. Although calculations of the confidence interval in Central Iran and Zagros seismotectonic zones are relatively acceptable for meaningful levels of confidence, results in Kopet Dagh, Alborz, Azerbaijan and Makran are not that much promising. The results indicate that estimating m_max from an earthquake catalog for reasonable levels of confidence alone is almost impossible.

  12. Confidence and coverage for Bland-Altman limits of agreement and their approximate confidence intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carkeet, Andrew; Goh, Yee Teng

    2016-09-01

    Bland and Altman described approximate methods in 1986 and 1999 for calculating confidence limits for their 95% limits of agreement, approximations which assume large subject numbers. In this paper, these approximations are compared with exact confidence intervals calculated using two-sided tolerance intervals for a normal distribution. The approximations are compared in terms of the tolerance factors themselves but also in terms of the exact confidence limits and the exact limits of agreement coverage corresponding to the approximate confidence interval methods. Using similar methods the 50th percentile of the tolerance interval are compared with the k values of 1.96 and 2, which Bland and Altman used to define limits of agreements (i.e. [Formula: see text]+/- 1.96Sd and [Formula: see text]+/- 2Sd). For limits of agreement outer confidence intervals, Bland and Altman's approximations are too permissive for sample sizes confidence limits the approximations are poorer, being permissive for sample sizes of confidence intervals for 95% limits of agreements, based on two-sided tolerance factors, can be calculated easily based on tables and should be used in preference to the approximate methods, especially for small sample sizes. © The Author(s) 2016.

  13. Upper Limb Exoskeleton

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rusak, Z.; Luijten, J.; Kooijman, A.

    2015-01-01

    The present invention relates a wearable exoskeleton for a user having a torso with an upper limb to support motion of the said upper limb. The wearable exoskeleton comprises a first fixed frame mountable to the torso, an upper arm brace and a first group of actuators for moving the upper arm brace

  14. Upper Limb Exoskeleton

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rusak, Z.; Luijten, J.; Kooijman, A.

    2015-01-01

    The present invention relates a wearable exoskeleton for a user having a torso with an upper limb to support motion of the said upper limb. The wearable exoskeleton comprises a first fixed frame mountable to the torso, an upper arm brace and a first group of actuators for moving the upper arm brace

  15. The relationship between confidence in charitable organizations and volunteering revisited

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekkers, René H.F.P.; Bowman, Woods

    2009-01-01

    Confidence in charitable organizations (charitable confidence) would seem to be an important prerequisite for philanthropic behavior. Previous research relying on cross-sectional data has suggested that volunteering promotes charitable confidence and vice versa. This research note, using new longitu

  16. The relationship between confidence in charitable organizations and volunteering revisited

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekkers, René H.F.P.; Bowman, Woods

    2009-01-01

    Confidence in charitable organizations (charitable confidence) would seem to be an important prerequisite for philanthropic behavior. Previous research relying on cross-sectional data has suggested that volunteering promotes charitable confidence and vice versa. This research note, using new

  17. The Confidence Information Ontology: a step towards a standard for asserting confidence in annotations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastian, Frederic B; Chibucos, Marcus C; Gaudet, Pascale; Giglio, Michelle; Holliday, Gemma L; Huang, Hong; Lewis, Suzanna E; Niknejad, Anne; Orchard, Sandra; Poux, Sylvain; Skunca, Nives; Robinson-Rechavi, Marc

    2015-01-01

    Biocuration has become a cornerstone for analyses in biology, and to meet needs, the amount of annotations has considerably grown in recent years. However, the reliability of these annotations varies; it has thus become necessary to be able to assess the confidence in annotations. Although several resources already provide confidence information about the annotations that they produce, a standard way of providing such information has yet to be defined. This lack of standardization undermines the propagation of knowledge across resources, as well as the credibility of results from high-throughput analyses. Seeded at a workshop during the Biocuration 2012 conference, a working group has been created to address this problem. We present here the elements that were identified as essential for assessing confidence in annotations, as well as a draft ontology--the Confidence Information Ontology--to illustrate how the problems identified could be addressed. We hope that this effort will provide a home for discussing this major issue among the biocuration community. Tracker URL: https://github.com/BgeeDB/confidence-information-ontology Ontology URL: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/BgeeDB/confidence-information-ontology/master/src/ontology/cio-simple.obo

  18. Properties of frequentist confidence levels derivatives

    CERN Document Server

    Martínez, Miriam Lucio; Dettori, Francesco

    2016-01-01

    In high energy physics, results from searches for new particles or rare processes are often reported using a modified frequentist approach, known as $\\rm{CL_s}$ method. In this paper, we study the properties of the derivatives of $\\rm{CL_s}$ and $\\rm{CL_{s+b}}$ as signal strength estimators if the confidence levels are interpreted as credible intervals. Our approach allows obtaining best fit points and $\\chi^2$ functions which can be used for phenomenology studies. In addition, this approach can be used to incorporate $\\rm{CL_s}$ results into Bayesian combinations.

  19. Asymptotically Honest Confidence Regions for High Dimensional

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Caner, Mehmet; Kock, Anders Bredahl

    While variable selection and oracle inequalities for the estimation and prediction error have received considerable attention in the literature on high-dimensional models, very little work has been done in the area of testing and construction of confidence bands in high-dimensional models. However...... develop an oracle inequality for the conservative Lasso only assuming the existence of a certain number of moments. This is done by means of the Marcinkiewicz-Zygmund inequality which in our context provides sharper bounds than Nemirovski's inequality. As opposed to van de Geer et al. (2014) we allow...

  20. Towards Measurement of Confidence in Safety Cases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denney, Ewen; Paim Ganesh J.; Habli, Ibrahim

    2011-01-01

    Arguments in safety cases are predominantly qualitative. This is partly attributed to the lack of sufficient design and operational data necessary to measure the achievement of high-dependability targets, particularly for safety-critical functions implemented in software. The subjective nature of many forms of evidence, such as expert judgment and process maturity, also contributes to the overwhelming dependence on qualitative arguments. However, where data for quantitative measurements is systematically collected, quantitative arguments provide far more benefits over qualitative arguments, in assessing confidence in the safety case. In this paper, we propose a basis for developing and evaluating integrated qualitative and quantitative safety arguments based on the Goal Structuring Notation (GSN) and Bayesian Networks (BN). The approach we propose identifies structures within GSN-based arguments where uncertainties can be quantified. BN are then used to provide a means to reason about confidence in a probabilistic way. We illustrate our approach using a fragment of a safety case for an unmanned aerial system and conclude with some preliminary observations

  1. Systematic review: tranexamic acid for upper gastrointestinal bleeding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klingenberg, S.L.; Langholz, S.E.; Gluud, Lise Lotte

    2008-01-01

    and Science Citation Index were combined. Intention-to-treat random effect meta-analyses were performed and results presented as RRs with 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: Seven double-blind randomized trials on tranexamic acid vs. placebo were included. Of 1754 patients randomized, 21% were excluded. Only...

  2. Lay People's Views of School Food Policy Options: Associations with Confidence, Personal Values and Demographics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worsley, Anthony

    2006-01-01

    A random population survey administered by mail to examine lay people's views of children's food policies and their associations with demographics, personal values and confidence in authorities was conducted among adults in Victoria, Australia. Three hundred and seventy-seven people responded (response rate 57.6%). The questionnaire contained 35…

  3. Confidence, Concentration, and Competitive Performance of Elite Athletes: A Natural Experiment in Olympic Gymnastics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grandjean, Burke D.; Taylor, Patricia A.; Weiner, Jay

    2002-01-01

    During the women's all-around gymnastics final at the 2000 Olympics, the vault was inadvertently set 5 cm too low for a random half of the gymnasts. The error was widely viewed as undermining their confidence and subsequent performance. However, data from pretest and posttest scores on the vault, bars, beam, and floor indicated that the vault…

  4. Effects of Strategy Training and Incentives on Students' Performance, Confidence, and Calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutierrez, Antonio P.; Schraw, Gregory

    2015-01-01

    This study examined the effect of strategy instruction and incentives on performance, confidence, and calibration accuracy. Individuals (N = 107) in randomly assigned treatment groups received a multicomponent strategy instruction intervention, financial incentives for high performance, or both. The authors predicted that incentives would improve…

  5. Confidence interval for number of population in dynamical stochastic exponential population growth models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morteza Khodabin

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the confidence interval for the solution of stochastic exponential population growth model where the so-called parameter, population growth rate is not completely definite and it depends on some random environmental effects is obtained. We use Iran population data in the period 1921-2006 as an example.

  6. Measurement of confidence: the development and psychometric evaluation of a stroke-specific, measure of confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horne, Jane C; Lincoln, Nadina B; Logan, Pip A

    2017-04-01

    To design, develop and psychometrically evaluate a stroke-specific measure of confidence, the Confidence after Stroke Measure (CaSM). Cross-sectional. Adults in the community. Stroke survivors and healthy elderly participants. Questionnaire items were generated based on the literature and qualitative interviews and piloted with expert groups to establish face validity. A 53-item CaSM was administered to stroke survivors and healthy elderly participants in the community. A second copy was posted four weeks later. Completed questionnaires were analysed for extreme responses, missing values, construct validity (factor analysis), convergent validity, divergent validity, reliability (internal consistency and temporal stability) and comparing responses according to age and gender. Stroke ( n = 101) and healthy elderly participants ( n = 101) returned questionnaires. Eight items were removed that had extreme responses and large numbers of missing values. Six items had item total correlations Confidence, Positive Attitude and Social Confidence, which explained 52% of variance. Cronbach's alpha coefficient demonstrated good internal consistency ( α = 0.94). A test re-test on the 27 items indicated good temporal stability ( r = 0.85, P = 0.001). The 27-item CaSM was a valid and reliable measure for assessing confidence in stroke survivors.

  7. Confidence and rejection in automatic speech recognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colton, Larry Don

    Automatic speech recognition (ASR) is performed imperfectly by computers. For some designated part (e.g., word or phrase) of the ASR output, rejection is deciding (yes or no) whether it is correct, and confidence is the probability (0.0 to 1.0) of it being correct. This thesis presents new methods of rejecting errors and estimating confidence for telephone speech. These are also called word or utterance verification and can be used in wordspotting or voice-response systems. Open-set or out-of-vocabulary situations are a primary focus. Language models are not considered. In vocabulary-dependent rejection all words in the target vocabulary are known in advance and a strategy can be developed for confirming each word. A word-specific artificial neural network (ANN) is shown to discriminate well, and scores from such ANNs are shown on a closed-set recognition task to reorder the N-best hypothesis list (N=3) for improved recognition performance. Segment-based duration and perceptual linear prediction (PLP) features are shown to perform well for such ANNs. The majority of the thesis concerns vocabulary- and task-independent confidence and rejection based on phonetic word models. These can be computed for words even when no training examples of those words have been seen. New techniques are developed using phoneme ranks instead of probabilities in each frame. These are shown to perform as well as the best other methods examined despite the data reduction involved. Certain new weighted averaging schemes are studied but found to give no performance benefit. Hierarchical averaging is shown to improve performance significantly: frame scores combine to make segment (phoneme state) scores, which combine to make phoneme scores, which combine to make word scores. Use of intermediate syllable scores is shown to not affect performance. Normalizing frame scores by an average of the top probabilities in each frame is shown to improve performance significantly. Perplexity of the wrong

  8. Engineering Student Self-Assessment through Confidence-Based Scoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuen-Reed, Gigi; Reed, Kyle B.

    2015-01-01

    A vital aspect of an answer is the confidence that goes along with it. Misstating the level of confidence one has in the answer can have devastating outcomes. However, confidence assessment is rarely emphasized during typical engineering education. The confidence-based scoring method described in this study encourages students to both think about…

  9. Mediated Sources of Public Confidence: Lazarsfeld and Merton Revisited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simonson, Peter

    1999-01-01

    Contributes to scholarship on mass media's role in generating public confidence. Discusses the current crisis of confidence, confidence as "faith-together," varied routes by which media confer status, and ways both journalistic expose and public debate can generate cynicism and undercut public confidence. Sketches three types of civil…

  10. Explicit representation of confidence informs future value-based decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Folke, Tomas; Jacobsen, Catrine; Fleming, Stephen M.

    2016-01-01

    Humans can reflect on decisions and report variable levels of confidence. But why maintain an explicit representation of confidence for choices that have already been made and therefore cannot be undone? Here we show that an explicit representation of confidence is harnessed for subsequent changes...... of mind. Specifically, when confidence is low, participants are more likely to change their minds when the same choice is presented again, an effect that is most pronounced in participants with greater fidelity in their confidence reports. Furthermore, we show that choices reported with high confidence...... of confidence has a positive impact on the quality of future value-based decisions....

  11. Confidence intervals for annual wind power production******

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bensoussan Alain

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Wind power is an intermittent resource due to wind speed intermittency. However wind speed can be described as a stochastic process with short memory. This allows us to derive a central limit theorem for the annual or pluri-annual wind power production and then get quantiles of the wind power production for one, ten or twenty years future periods. On the one hand, the interquantile spread offers a measurement of the intrinsic uncertainties of wind power production. On the other hand, different quantiles with different periods of time are used by financial institutions to quantify the financial risk of the wind turbine. Our method is then applied to real datasets corresponding to a French wind turbine. Since confidence intervals can be enhanced by taking into account seasonality, we present some tools for change point analysis on wind series.

  12. Confidence crisis of results in biomechanics research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knudson, Duane

    2017-11-01

    Many biomechanics studies have small sample sizes and incorrect statistical analyses, so reporting of inaccurate inferences and inflated magnitude of effects are common in the field. This review examines these issues in biomechanics research and summarises potential solutions from research in other fields to increase the confidence in the experimental effects reported in biomechanics. Authors, reviewers and editors of biomechanics research reports are encouraged to improve sample sizes and the resulting statistical power, improve reporting transparency, improve the rigour of statistical analyses used, and increase the acceptance of replication studies to improve the validity of inferences from data in biomechanics research. The application of sports biomechanics research results would also improve if a larger percentage of unbiased effects and their uncertainty were reported in the literature.

  13. Rules for confidence intervals of permeability coefficients for water flow in over-broken rock mass

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Liu Weiqun; Fei Xiaodong; Fang Jingnian

    2012-01-01

    Based on the steady-state seepage method,we used the Mechanical Testing and Simulation 815.02 System and a self-designed seepage instrument for over-broken stone to measure seepage properties of water flows in three types of crushed rock samples.Three methods of confidence interval in describing permeability coefficients are presented:the secure interval,the calculated interval and the systemic interval.The lower bound of the secure interval can be applied to water-inrush and the upper bound can solve the problem of connectivity.For the calculated interval,as the axial pressure increases,the length of confidence interval is shortened and the upper and lower bounds are reduced.For the systemic interval,the length of its confidence interval,as well as the upper and lower bounds,clearly vary under low axial pressure but are fairly similar under high axial pressure.These three methods provide useful information and references for analyzing the permeability coefficient of over-broken rock.

  14. Confidence sets for optimal factor levels of a response surface.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Fang; Liu, Wei; Bretz, Frank; Han, Yang

    2016-12-01

    Construction of confidence sets for the optimal factor levels is an important topic in response surfaces methodology. In Wan et al. (2015), an exact (1-α) confidence set has been provided for a maximum or minimum point (i.e., an optimal factor level) of a univariate polynomial function in a given interval. In this article, the method has been extended to construct an exact (1-α) confidence set for the optimal factor levels of response surfaces. The construction method is readily applied to many parametric and semiparametric regression models involving a quadratic function. A conservative confidence set has been provided as an intermediate step in the construction of the exact confidence set. Two examples are given to illustrate the application of the confidence sets. The comparison between confidence sets indicates that our exact confidence set is better than the only other confidence set available in the statistical literature that guarantees the (1-α) confidence level. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

  15. Upper Kenai Corridor Study

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — The Upper Kenai Corridor study describes and evaluates the Upper Kenai River and the land which embraces it. It also places the river corridor in its regional...

  16. Fusing photovoltaic data for improved confidence intervals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ansgar Steland

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Characterizing and testing photovoltaic modules requires carefully made measurements on important variables such as the power output under standard conditions. When additional data is available, which has been collected using a different measurement system and therefore may be of different accuracy, the question arises how one can combine the information present in both data sets. In some cases one even has prior knowledge about the ordering of the variances of the measurement errors, which is not fully taken into account by commonly known estimators. We discuss several statistical estimators to combine the sample means of independent series of measurements, both under the assumption of heterogeneous variances and ordered variances. The critical issue is then to assess the estimator’s variance and to construct confidence intervals. We propose and discuss the application of a new jackknife variance estimator devised by [1] to such photovoltaic data, in order to assess the variability of common mean estimation under heterogeneous and ordered variances in a reliable and nonparametric way. When serial correlations are present, which usually a ect the marginal variances, it is proposed to construct a thinned data set by downsampling the series in such a way that autocorrelations are removed or dampened. We propose a data adaptive procedure which downsamples a series at irregularly spaced time points in such a way that the autocorrelations are minimized. The procedures are illustrated by applying them to real photovoltaic power output measurements from two different sun light flashers. In addition, focusing on simulations governed by real photovoltaic data, we investigate the accuracy of the jackknife approach and compare it with other approaches. Among those is a variance estimator based on Nair’s formula for Gaussian data and, as a parametric alternative, two Bayesian models. We investigate the statistical accuracy of the resulting confidence

  17. The 2010 Retirement Confidence Survey: confidence stabilizing, but preparations continue to erode.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helman, Ruth; Copeland, Craig; VanDerhei, Jack

    2010-03-01

    20TH ANNUAL RCS: The 2010 Retirement Confidence Survey-the 20th annual wave of this survey-finds that the record-low confidence levels measured during the past two years of economic decline appear to have bottomed out. The percentage of workers veryconfident about having enough money for a comfortable retirement has stabilized at 16 percent, which is statistically equivalent to the 20-year low of 13 percent measured in 2009 (Fig. 1, pg. 7). Retiree confidence about having a financially secure retirement has also stabilized, with 19 percent saying now they are very confident (statistically equivalent to the 20 percent measured in 2009) (Fig. 2, pg. 8). Worker confidence about paying for basic expenses in retirement has rebounded slightly, with 29 percent now saying they are very confident about having enough money to pay for basic expenses during retirement (up from 25 percent in 2009, but still down from 34 percent in 2008) (Fig. 3, pg. 9). PREPARATIONS STILL ERODING: Fewer workers report that they and/or their spouse have saved for retirement (69 percent, down from 75 percent in 2009 but statistically equivalent to 72 percent in 2008) (Fig. 11, page 14). Moreover, fewer workers say that they and/or their spouse are currently saving for retirement (60 percent, down from 65 percent in 2009 but statistically equivalent to percentages measured in other years) (Fig. 13, pg. 15). MORE PEOPLE HAVE NO SAVINGS AT ALL: An increased percentage of workers report they have virtually no savings and investments. Among RCS workers providing this type of information, 27 percent say they have less than $1,000 in savings (up from 20 percent in 2009). In total, more than half of workers (54 percent) report that the total value of their household's savings and investments, excluding the value of their primary home and any defined benefit plans, is less than $25,000 (Fig. 14, pg. 16). CLUELESS ABOUT SAVINGS GOALS: Many workers continue to be unaware of how much they need to save for

  18. Upper limb arterial thromboembolism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, L V; Lip, Gregory Y.H.; Lindholt, J S;

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this review is to focus on risk factors, risk-modifying drugs and prognosis for upper limb arterial thromboembolism, and the relationship between upper limb arterial thromboembolism and atrial fibrillation (AF).......The aim of this review is to focus on risk factors, risk-modifying drugs and prognosis for upper limb arterial thromboembolism, and the relationship between upper limb arterial thromboembolism and atrial fibrillation (AF)....

  19. Multidimensional confidence regions for pareto, exponential, and normal distributions

    OpenAIRE

    Lennartz, Jens

    2017-01-01

    The two classical approaches in estimation theory are point estimation and confidence interval estimation. A confidence interval contains the unknown parameter of interest of a parametric family of distributions with a probability greater than or equal to a certain value, called confidence coefficient or confidence level. If we deal with multiparametric families of distributions, we are interested in simultaneously estimating the parameter vector by determining a multidimensional confidence r...

  20. Eyewitness confidence : the relation between accuracy and confidence in episodic memory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Odinot, Geralda

    2008-01-01

    Many decisions in the legal system are based on eyewitness evidence. It seems to be a matter of common sense that the level of confidence expressed by a witness can be used as a diagnostic tool to discriminate between accurate and inaccurate memories. Contrary to this general belief, the bulk of

  1. Eyewitness confidence : the relation between accuracy and confidence in episodic memory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Odinot, Geralda

    2008-01-01

    Many decisions in the legal system are based on eyewitness evidence. It seems to be a matter of common sense that the level of confidence expressed by a witness can be used as a diagnostic tool to discriminate between accurate and inaccurate memories. Contrary to this general belief, the bulk of emp

  2. Confidence intervals make a difference : Effects of showing confidence intervals on inferential reasoning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoekstra, Rink; Johnson, Addie; Kiers, Henk A. L.

    2012-01-01

    The use of confidence intervals (CIs) as an addition or as an alternative to null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) has been promoted as a means to make researchers more aware of the uncertainty that is inherent in statistical inference. Little is known, however, about whether presenting result

  3. Brain networks for confidence weighting and hierarchical inference during probabilistic learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyniel, Florent; Dehaene, Stanislas

    2017-05-09

    Learning is difficult when the world fluctuates randomly and ceaselessly. Classical learning algorithms, such as the delta rule with constant learning rate, are not optimal. Mathematically, the optimal learning rule requires weighting prior knowledge and incoming evidence according to their respective reliabilities. This "confidence weighting" implies the maintenance of an accurate estimate of the reliability of what has been learned. Here, using fMRI and an ideal-observer analysis, we demonstrate that the brain's learning algorithm relies on confidence weighting. While in the fMRI scanner, human adults attempted to learn the transition probabilities underlying an auditory or visual sequence, and reported their confidence in those estimates. They knew that these transition probabilities could change simultaneously at unpredicted moments, and therefore that the learning problem was inherently hierarchical. Subjective confidence reports tightly followed the predictions derived from the ideal observer. In particular, subjects managed to attach distinct levels of confidence to each learned transition probability, as required by Bayes-optimal inference. Distinct brain areas tracked the likelihood of new observations given current predictions, and the confidence in those predictions. Both signals were combined in the right inferior frontal gyrus, where they operated in agreement with the confidence-weighting model. This brain region also presented signatures of a hierarchical process that disentangles distinct sources of uncertainty. Together, our results provide evidence that the sense of confidence is an essential ingredient of probabilistic learning in the human brain, and that the right inferior frontal gyrus hosts a confidence-based statistical learning algorithm for auditory and visual sequences.

  4. Exhibitors: Full of Confidence Adequate Preparation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    From March 26th,three most important trade fairs for Chinese textile industry opened successively inBeijing.Several exhibitors showed their confidence and preparation to TA Weekly. Bosideng:CHIC is an everlasting marketing chance"We’ll definitely participate in CHIC 2009,with even moreinvestment."Gao Dekang,the President of Bosideng Co.,Ltd said,"Bosideng is going to make full use of this trade fair for furtherdevelopment."According to the organizer of CHIC 2009,Bosidengreserved 1000 square meters for its show."CHIC witnessed the blooming development of Chinese clothingindustry for the last ten years.CHIC has made a progress to catch upwith the world trend as well as in the social influence.It has becomethe pioneer of fashion and is regarded as the releasing center,innovation center and brand center."As a long-term participant,Bosideng has the right to say these words.It is in this fair,Bosideng

  5. Confidence Intervals from Normalized Data: A correction to Cousineau (2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard D. Morey

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Presenting confidence intervals around means is a common method of expressing uncertainty in data. Loftus and Masson (1994 describe confidence intervals for means in within-subjects designs. These confidence intervals are based on the ANOVA mean squared error. Cousineau (2005 presents an alternative to the Loftus and Masson method, but his method produces confidence intervals that are smaller than those of Loftus and Masson. I show why this is the case and offer a simple correction that makes the expected size of Cousineau confidence intervals the same as that of Loftus and Masson confidence intervals.

  6. Bayesian estimation of keyword confidence in Chinese continuous speech recognition

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HAO Jie; LI Xing

    2003-01-01

    In a syllable-based speaker-independent Chinese continuous speech recognition system based on classical Hidden Markov Model (HMM), a Bayesian approach of keyword confidence estimation is studied, which utilizes both acoustic layer scores and syllable-based statistical language model (LM) score. The Maximum a posteriori (MAP) confidence measure is proposed, and the forward-backward algorithm calculating the MAP confidence scores is deduced. The performance of the MAP confidence measure is evaluated in keyword spotting application and the experiment results show that the MAP confidence scores provide high discriminability for keyword candidates. Furthermore, the MAP confidence measure can be applied to various speech recognition applications.

  7. Sources of sport confidence, imagery type and performance among competitive athletes: the mediating role of sports confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, A R; Perry, J; Nicholls, A R; Larkin, D; Davies, J

    2015-01-01

    This study explored the mediating role of sport confidence upon (1) sources of sport confidence-performance relationship and (2) imagery-performance relationship. Participants were 157 competitive athletes who completed state measures of confidence level/sources, imagery type and performance within one hour after competition. Among the current sample, confirmatory factor analysis revealed appropriate support for the nine-factor SSCQ and the five-factor SIQ. Mediational analysis revealed that sport confidence had a mediating influence upon the achievement source of confidence-performance relationship. In addition, both cognitive and motivational imagery types were found to be important sources of confidence, as sport confidence mediated imagery type- performance relationship. Findings indicated that athletes who construed confidence from their own achievements and report multiple images on a more frequent basis are likely to benefit from enhanced levels of state sport confidence and subsequent performance.

  8. Semi-empirical Likelihood Confidence Intervals for the Differences of Quantiles with Missing Data

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yong Song QIN; Jun Chao ZHANG

    2009-01-01

    Detecting population (group) differences is useful in many applications, such as medical research. In this paper, we explore the probabilistic theory for identifying the quantile differences between two populations. ,Suppose that there are two populations x and y with missing data on both of them, where x is nonparametric and y is parametric. We are interested in constructing confidence intervals on the quantile differences of x and y. Random hot deck imputation is used to fill in missing data. Semi-empirical likelihood confidence intervals on the differences are constructed.

  9. Business confidence still high in Zimbabwe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amanor-wilks, D

    1995-12-01

    Business confidence has not been affected in Zimbabwe despite the AIDS epidemic in that country. An Australian mining company has recruited people to work at its platinum mine in Zimbabwe and also instituted an AIDS awareness program. The National Chamber of Commerce disclosed that semiskilled and unskilled workers who are the "easiest to replace" have been most affected by the epidemic. The impact of AIDS has not been as bad as had been predicted several years ago. By the end of the 1990s, however, there might be a skills shortage. The first AIDS case was detected in 1985 in Zimbabwe. By the end of 1995 a cumulative total of 38,500 cases had been reported, but the National AIDS Control Program believes that the true figure is over 100,000. The estimated number of HIV-infected people is about 1 million. The most economically productive age group (30-50) has the highest rates of infection. Transport is affected most, followed by mining and commercial farming. Infection rates among miners are estimated to be 20-30% and the rates are the highest at the mines on the major transport routes. The mining industry has not had any problems in recruiting labor, but, increasingly, deaths are AIDS-related. The growing sex industry at the mines has accelerated the spread of HIV. In addition, small mines do not have AIDS awareness programs in place. The National Employment Council runs a project for the transport industry, which seeks to intensify AIDS campaigns at truck stops. This also entails talks to drivers about AIDS; courses for police, nurses, and sex workers; and the distribution of condoms. In commercial farming, two-thirds of workers are unskilled casual laborers who live in squalid conditions that foster the spread of AIDS. At these farms there is also a growing number of orphans, whose number is estimated to rise to 60,000 by the late 1990s.

  10. Alternative confidence measure for local matching stereo algorithms

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Ndhlovu, T

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available The authors present a confidence measure applied to individual disparity estimates in local matching stereo correspondence algorithms. It aims at identifying textureless areas, where most local matching algorithms fail. The confidence measure works...

  11. The role of confidence in world-class sport performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hays, Kate; Thomas, Owen; Maynard, Ian; Bawden, Mark

    2009-09-01

    In this study, we examined the role of confidence in relation to the cognitive, affective, and behavioural responses it elicits, and identified the factors responsible for debilitating confidence within the organizational subculture of world-class sport. Using Vealey's (2001) integrative model of sport confidence as a broad conceptual base, 14 athletes (7 males, 7 females) were interviewed in response to the research aims. Analysis indicated that high sport confidence facilitated performance through its positive effect on athletes' thoughts, feelings, and behaviours. However, the athletes participating in this study were susceptible to factors that served to debilitate their confidence. These factors appeared to be associated with the sources from which they derived their confidence and influenced to some extent by gender. Thus, the focus of interventions designed to enhance sport confidence must reflect the individual needs of the athlete, and might involve identifying an athlete's sources and types of confidence, and ensuring that these are intact during competition preparation phases.

  12. Assessing Residents' Confidence in the Context of Pharmacotherapy Competence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakofsky, Jeffrey J; Garlow, Steven J; Haroon, Ebrahim; Hermida, Adriana P; Young, John Q; Dunlop, Boadie W

    2017-06-01

    We aimed to determine whether residents' confidence initiating medications increased with the number of times they prescribed individual medications and to quantify the relationship between prescription frequency and gains in confidence. From July 2011 to June 2014, PGY-3 residents completed a survey of confidence levels at their psychopharmacology clinic orientation and then again 12 months later. The Emory Healthcare electronic medical record was used to identify all medications prescribed by each resident during their 12-month rotation and the frequency of these prescriptions. Confidence in initiating treatment with all medicines/medication classes increased over the 12-month period. For three of the medication classes for which residents indicated they were least confident at orientation, the number of prescriptions written during the year was significantly associated with an increase in confidence. Measuring resident confidence is a relevant and achievable outcome and provides data for educators regarding the amount of experience needed to increase confidence.

  13. On the Confidence Interval for the parameter of Poisson Distribution

    CERN Document Server

    Bityukov, S I; Taperechkina, V A

    2000-01-01

    In present paper the possibility of construction of continuous analogue of Poisson distribution with the search of bounds of confidence intervals for parameter of Poisson distribution is discussed and the results of numerical construction of confidence intervals are presented.

  14. Composites for Exploration Upper Stage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fikes, J. C.; Jackson, J. R.; Richardson, S. W.; Thomas, A. D.; Mann, T. O.; Miller, S. G.

    2016-01-01

    The Composites for Exploration Upper Stage (CEUS) was a 3-year, level III project within the Technology Demonstration Missions program of the NASA Space Technology Mission Directorate. Studies have shown that composites provide important programmatic enhancements, including reduced weight to increase capability and accelerated expansion of exploration and science mission objectives. The CEUS project was focused on technologies that best advanced innovation, infusion, and broad applications for the inclusion of composites on future large human-rated launch vehicles and spacecraft. The benefits included near- and far-term opportunities for infusion (NASA, industry/commercial, Department of Defense), demonstrated critical technologies and technically implementable evolvable innovations, and sustained Agency experience. The initial scope of the project was to advance technologies for large composite structures applicable to the Space Launch System (SLS) Exploration Upper Stage (EUS) by focusing on the affordability and technical performance of the EUS forward and aft skirts. The project was tasked to develop and demonstrate critical composite technologies with a focus on full-scale materials, design, manufacturing, and test using NASA in-house capabilities. This would have demonstrated a major advancement in confidence and matured the large-scale composite technology to a Technology Readiness Level 6. This project would, therefore, have bridged the gap for providing composite application to SLS upgrades, enabling future exploration missions.

  15. Precise Asymptotics for Random Matrices and Random Growth Models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhong Gen SU

    2008-01-01

    The author considers the largest eigenvalues of random matrices from Gaussian unitary ensemble and Laguerre unitary ensemble, and the rightmost charge in certain random growth models.We obtain some precise asymptotics results, which are in a sense similar to the precise asymptotics for sums of independent random variables in the context of the law of large numbers and complete convergence. Our proofs depend heavily upon the upper and lower tail estimates for random matrices and random growth models. The Tracy-Widom distribution plays a central role as well.

  16. Two-Sided Tests and One-Sided Confidence Bounds

    OpenAIRE

    1994-01-01

    Based on the duality between tests and confidence sets we introduce a new method to derive one-sided confidence bounds following the rejection of a null hypothesis with two-sided alternatives. This method imputes that the experimenter is only interested in confidence bounds if the null hypothesis is rejected. Furthermore, we suppose that he is only interested in the direction and a lower confidence bound concerning the distance of the true parameter value to the parameter values in the null h...

  17. Improving Quality Using Architecture Fault Analysis with Confidence Arguments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-01

    Improving Quality Using Architecture Fault Analysis with Confidence Arguments Peter H. Feiler Charles B. Weinstock John B. Goodenough...Design 8 2.3 Architecture Fault Modeling and Analysis with EMV2 8 2.4 Confidence Map Concepts and Notation 11 Overview of the Stepper-Motor System...Comparison of the SMS Designs 43 Establishing Confidence in the SMS 45 6.1 Confidence Maps for SMS 45 CMU/SEI-2015-TR-006 | SOFTWARE ENGINEERING

  18. How to Strengthen Child Learners’Self-confidence

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李文敬

    2013-01-01

    Self-confidence is closely related to L2 learning. In order to make their learners enjoy English learning, English teach-ers need to strengthen the learners’English learning confidence. This article is to find out English teachers’role to strengthening learners’self-confidence in ELL by means of class observation. The writer concludes improving speaking ability; giving praise and offering gentle error correcting can help to strengthen the learners’confidence.

  19. Opinion formation with time-varying bounded confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, QiPeng; Zhang, SiYing

    2017-01-01

    When individuals in social groups communicate with one another and are under the influence of neighbors’ opinions, they typically revise their own opinions to adapt to such peer opinions. The individual threshold of bounded confidence will thus be affected by both a change in individual confidence and by neighbor influence. Individuals thus update their own opinions with new bounded confidence, while their updated opinions also influence their neighbors’ opinions. Based on this reasoned factual assumption, we propose an opinion dynamics model with time-varying bounded confidence. A directed network is formed by the rule of the individual bounded confidence threshold. The threshold of individual bounded confidence involves both confidence variation and the in/out degree of the individual node. When the confidence variation is greater, an individual’s confidence in persisting in his own opinion in interactions is weaker, and the individual is more likely to adopt neighbors’ opinions. In networks, the in/out degree is determined by individual neighbors. Our main research involves the process of opinion evolution and the basic laws of opinion cluster formation. Group opinions converge exponentially to consensus with stable neighbors. An individual opinion evolution is determined by the average neighbor opinion effect strength. We also explore the conditions involved in forming a stable neighbor relationship and the influence of the confidence variation in the convergence of the threshold of bounded confidence. The results show that the influence on opinion evolution is greater with increased confidence variation. PMID:28264038

  20. 78 FR 56621 - Draft Waste Confidence Generic Environmental Impact Statement

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-13

    ...; ] NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION 10 CFR Part 51 RIN 3150-AJ20 Draft Waste Confidence Generic Environmental... Confidence Generic Environmental Impact Statement,'' that forms the regulatory basis for the proposed... Confidence rule). The NRC staff plans to hold 12 public meetings during the public comment period to present...

  1. Opinion formation with time-varying bounded confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, YunHong; Liu, QiPeng; Zhang, SiYing

    2017-01-01

    When individuals in social groups communicate with one another and are under the influence of neighbors' opinions, they typically revise their own opinions to adapt to such peer opinions. The individual threshold of bounded confidence will thus be affected by both a change in individual confidence and by neighbor influence. Individuals thus update their own opinions with new bounded confidence, while their updated opinions also influence their neighbors' opinions. Based on this reasoned factual assumption, we propose an opinion dynamics model with time-varying bounded confidence. A directed network is formed by the rule of the individual bounded confidence threshold. The threshold of individual bounded confidence involves both confidence variation and the in/out degree of the individual node. When the confidence variation is greater, an individual's confidence in persisting in his own opinion in interactions is weaker, and the individual is more likely to adopt neighbors' opinions. In networks, the in/out degree is determined by individual neighbors. Our main research involves the process of opinion evolution and the basic laws of opinion cluster formation. Group opinions converge exponentially to consensus with stable neighbors. An individual opinion evolution is determined by the average neighbor opinion effect strength. We also explore the conditions involved in forming a stable neighbor relationship and the influence of the confidence variation in the convergence of the threshold of bounded confidence. The results show that the influence on opinion evolution is greater with increased confidence variation.

  2. 21 CFR 26.37 - Confidence building activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Confidence building activities. 26.37 Section 26... COMMUNITY Specific Sector Provisions for Medical Devices § 26.37 Confidence building activities. (a) At the beginning of the transitional period, the Joint Sectoral Group will establish a joint confidence building...

  3. 7 CFR 97.18 - Applications handled in confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Applications handled in confidence. 97.18 Section 97.18 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING... confidence. (a) Pending applications shall be handled in confidence. Except as provided below, no information...

  4. Developing Self-confidence%培养自信心

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Robert Kokoska

    2006-01-01

    @@ Ideally,self-confidence is something you develop early and maintain throughout life. For many of us,though, that just isn't the case-either the process of developing self-confidence is stymied early on,or we lose confidence because of life events.

  5. Contrasting Academic Behavioural Confidence in Mexican and European Psychology Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ochoa, Alma Rosa Aguila; Sander, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Introduction: Research with the Academic Behavioural Confidence scale using European students has shown that students have high levels of confidence in their academic abilities. It is generally accepted that people in more collectivist cultures have more realistic confidence levels in contrast to the overconfidence seen in individualistic European…

  6. Predicting Postfeedback Performance from Students' Confidence in Their Responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bender, Timothy A.

    The model of feedback processing proposed by R. W. Kulhavy and W. A. Stock (1989) was studied in a traditional classroom setting in which methods of assessing students' response confidence as predictors of postfeedback performance were also examined. The relationship between confidence ratings at the time of the test and confidence assessed prior…

  7. Assessing Undergraduate Students' Conceptual Understanding and Confidence of Electromagnetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leppavirta, Johanna

    2012-01-01

    The study examines how students' conceptual understanding changes from high confidence with incorrect conceptions to high confidence with correct conceptions when reasoning about electromagnetics. The Conceptual Survey of Electricity and Magnetism test is weighted with students' self-rated confidence on each item in order to infer how strongly…

  8. Learning about confidence intervals with software R

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gariela Gonçalves

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available 0 0 1 202 1111 USAL 9 2 1311 14.0 Normal 0 21 false false false ES JA X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Tabla normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0cm; mso-para-margin-right:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0cm; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-ansi-language:ES; mso-fareast-language:EN-US;} This work was to study the feasibility of implementing a teaching method that employs software, in a Computational Mathematics course, involving students and teachers through the use of the statistical software R in carrying out practical work, such as strengthening the traditional teaching. The statistical inference, namely the determination of confidence intervals, was the content selected for this experience. It was intended show, first of all, that it is possible to promote, through the proposal methodology, the acquisition of basic skills in statistical inference and to promote the positive relationships between teachers and students. It presents also a comparative study between the methodologies used and their quantitative and qualitative results on two consecutive school years, in several indicators. The data used in the study were obtained from the students to the exam questions in the years 2010/2011 and 2011/2012, from the achievement of a working group in 2011/2012 and via the responses to a questionnaire (optional and anonymous also applied in 2011 / 2012. In terms of results, we emphasize a better performance of students in the examination questions in 2011/2012, the year that students used the software R, and a very favorable student’s perspective about

  9. Transconjunctival upper blepharoplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Januszkiewicz, J S; Nahai, F

    1999-03-01

    Transconjunctival lower lid blepharoplasty now has an established role as an option in rejuvenation of the lower eyelid. Transconjunctival upper lid blepharoplasty, or transconjunctival removal of medial upper eyelid fat, also has a role in rejuvenation of the upper eyelid. However, this is a rather limited role. We have found this approach safe and efficacious as a primary as well as a secondary procedure for removal of excess medial upper eyelid fat. We report on 20 patients who have undergone this operation: 5 as a primary procedure and 15 as secondary. There were no complications, no revisions, and the patients have been uniformly happy with their results.

  10. High-Confidence Predictions under Adversarial Uncertainty

    CERN Document Server

    Drucker, Andrew

    2011-01-01

    We study the setting in which the bits of an unknown infinite binary sequence x are revealed sequentially to an observer. We show that very limited assumptions about x allow one to make successful predictions about unseen bits of x. First, we study the problem of successfully predicting a single 0 from among the bits of x. In our model we have only one chance to make a prediction, but may do so at a time of our choosing. We describe and motivate this as the problem of a frog who wants to cross a road safely. Letting N_t denote the number of 1s among the first t bits of x, we say that x is "eps-weakly sparse" if lim inf (N_t/t) 0, we give a randomized forecasting algorithm S_eps that, given sequential access to a binary sequence x, makes a predi ction of the form: "A p fraction of the next N bits will be 1s." (The algorithm gets to choose p, N, and the time of the prediction.) For any fixed sequence x, the forecast fraction p is accurate to within +-eps with probability 1 - eps.

  11. On how the brain decodes vocal cues about speaker confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Xiaoming; Pell, Marc D

    2015-05-01

    In speech communication, listeners must accurately decode vocal cues that refer to the speaker's mental state, such as their confidence or 'feeling of knowing'. However, the time course and neural mechanisms associated with online inferences about speaker confidence are unclear. Here, we used event-related potentials (ERPs) to examine the temporal neural dynamics underlying a listener's ability to infer speaker confidence from vocal cues during speech processing. We recorded listeners' real-time brain responses while they evaluated statements wherein the speaker's tone of voice conveyed one of three levels of confidence (confident, close-to-confident, unconfident) or were spoken in a neutral manner. Neural responses time-locked to event onset show that the perceived level of speaker confidence could be differentiated at distinct time points during speech processing: unconfident expressions elicited a weaker P2 than all other expressions of confidence (or neutral-intending utterances), whereas close-to-confident expressions elicited a reduced negative response in the 330-500 msec and 550-740 msec time window. Neutral-intending expressions, which were also perceived as relatively confident, elicited a more delayed, larger sustained positivity than all other expressions in the 980-1270 msec window for this task. These findings provide the first piece of evidence of how quickly the brain responds to vocal cues signifying the extent of a speaker's confidence during online speech comprehension; first, a rough dissociation between unconfident and confident voices occurs as early as 200 msec after speech onset. At a later stage, further differentiation of the exact level of speaker confidence (i.e., close-to-confident, very confident) is evaluated via an inferential system to determine the speaker's meaning under current task settings. These findings extend three-stage models of how vocal emotion cues are processed in speech comprehension (e.g., Schirmer & Kotz, 2006) by

  12. The effect of location and configuration on forearm and upper arm hemodialysis arteriovenous grafts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farber, Alik; Tan, Tze-Woei; Hu, Bo; Dember, Laura M; Beck, Gerald J; Dixon, Bradley S; Kusek, John W; Feldman, Harold I

    2015-11-01

    The arteriovenous graft (AVG) is most often used in hemodialysis patients when an autogenous fistula is not feasible. The optimal location (forearm or upper arm) and configuration (loop or straight) of AVGs are not known. To evaluate relationships of AVG location and configuration with patency, we conducted a secondary analysis using data from a randomized, placebo-controlled trial of dipyridamole plus aspirin for newly placed AVG. Participants of the Dialysis Access Consortium (DAC) Graft Study with newly placed upper extremity prosthetic grafts involving the brachial artery were studied. Multivariable analyses adjusting for trial treatment group, center, gender, race, body mass index, diabetes, current treatment with chronic dialysis, and prior arteriovenous vascular access or central venous catheter were performed to compare outcomes of forearm (fAVG) and upper arm (uAVG) grafts, including loss of primary unassisted patency (LPUP) and cumulative primary graft failure (CGF). Subgroup analyses of graft configuration and outflow vein used were also conducted. A total of 508 of the 649 participants (78%) enrolled in the trial had an upper extremity brachial artery graft placed, 255 with fAVG and 253 with uAVG. Participants with fAVG were less often male (33% vs 43%; P = .03), African American (62% vs 78%; P location (uAVG vs fAVG) was not associated with LPUP (hazard ratio, 1.21; 95% confidence interval, 0.90-1.63; P = .20) or CGF (hazard ratio, 1.36; 95% confidence interval, 0.94-1.97; P = .10). LPUP did not differ significantly between fAVG and uAVG among subgroups based on AVG configuration (P = 1.00) or outflow vein used (P = .16). Patency was comparable between fAVG and uAVG despite the larger caliber veins often encountered in the upper arm in carefully selected patients. Our findings support the traditional view that, in order to preserve a maximal number of access sites, the forearm location should be considered first before resorting to an upper arm

  13. Analysis of upper and lower bounds of the frame noise in linear detector arrays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaggi, S.

    1991-01-01

    This paper estimates the upper and lower bounds of the frame noise of a linear detector array that uses a one-dimensional scan pattern. Using chi-square distribution, it is analytically shown why it is necessary to use the average of the variances and not the average of the standard deviations to estimate these bounds. Also, a criteria for determining whether any excessively noisy lines exist among the detectors is derived from these bounds. Using a Gaussian standard random variable generator, these bounds are demonstrated to be accurate within the specified confidence interval. A silicon detector array is then used for actual dark current measurements. The criterion developed for determination of noisy detectors is checked on the experimentally obtained data.

  14. Strengthening Social Ties to Increase Confidence and Self-Esteem Among Sexual and Gender Minority Youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romijnders, Kim A; Wilkerson, J Michael; Crutzen, Rik; Kok, Gerjo; Bauldry, Jessica; Lawler, Sylvia M

    2017-05-01

    Sexual and gender minority (SGM) youth too often live in nonsupportive environments. This study reports the influence of social support from primary and secondary social ties on confidence and self-esteem among participants in Hatch Youth, a drop-in group-level intervention for SGM youth. Each 3-hour Hatch Youth meeting consists of a social, educational, and youth-led support hour. Over 14 weeks, these meetings were randomly observed and individual interviews with participating youth ( n = 12) and staff and volunteers ( n = 12) were conducted; data underwent a content analysis. Participants perceived an increase in confidence and self-esteem through enhanced bonding with family and friends, a sense of belonging, and community empowerment because of their involvement with Hatch Youth, suggesting drop-in centers can strengthen secondary social ties and improve confidence and self-esteem.

  15. Randomization tests

    CERN Document Server

    Edgington, Eugene

    2007-01-01

    Statistical Tests That Do Not Require Random Sampling Randomization Tests Numerical Examples Randomization Tests and Nonrandom Samples The Prevalence of Nonrandom Samples in Experiments The Irrelevance of Random Samples for the Typical Experiment Generalizing from Nonrandom Samples Intelligibility Respect for the Validity of Randomization Tests Versatility Practicality Precursors of Randomization Tests Other Applications of Permutation Tests Questions and Exercises Notes References Randomized Experiments Unique Benefits of Experiments Experimentation without Mani

  16. Perceived Sources of Team Confidence in Soccer and Basketball.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fransen, Katrien; Vanbeselaere, Norbert; De Cuyper, Bert; Vande Broek, Gert; Boen, Filip

    2015-07-01

    Although it is generally accepted that team confidence is beneficial for optimal team functioning and performance, little is known about the predictors of team confidence. The present study was aimed to shed light on the precursors of both high and low team confidence in two different sports. A distinction is made between sources of process-oriented team confidence (i.e., collective efficacy) and sources of outcome-oriented team confidence (i.e., team outcome confidence), which have often been confounded in previous research. In a first step, two qualitative studies were conducted to identify all possible sources of team confidence in basketball and in soccer. In a second step, three quantitative studies were conducted to further investigate the sources of team outcome confidence in soccer (N = 1028) and in basketball (N = 867), and the sources of collective efficacy in basketball (N = 825). Players perceived high-quality performance as the most important factor for their team outcome confidence. With regard to collective efficacy, team enthusiasm was perceived as most predictive determinant. Positive coaching emerged as second most decisive factor for both types of team confidence. In contrast, negative communication and expression by the players or the coach was perceived as the most decisive predictor of low levels of team confidence. At item level, all studies pointed to the importance of team confidence expression by the athlete leaders (i.e., leader figures within the team) and the coach. The present manuscript sheds light on the precursors of high and low levels of team confidence. Athlete leaders and the coach emerged as key triggers of both upward and downward spirals of team confidence, thereby contaminating all team members.

  17. Nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burke, Stephen J.; Weldon, Derik; Sun, Shiliang [University of Iowa, Department of Radiology, Iowa, IA (United States); Golzarian, Jafar [University of Iowa, Department of Radiology, Iowa, IA (United States); University of Iowa, Department of Radiology, Carver College of Medicine, Iowa, IA (United States)

    2007-07-15

    Nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NUGB) remains a major medical problem even after advances in medical therapy with gastric acid suppression and cyclooxygenase (COX-2) inhibitors. Although the incidence of upper gastrointestinal bleeding presenting to the emergency room has slightly decreased, similar decreases in overall mortality and rebleeding rate have not been experienced over the last few decades. Many causes of upper gastrointestinal bleeding have been identified and will be reviewed. Endoscopic, radiographic and angiographic modalities continue to form the basis of the diagnosis of upper gastrointestinal bleeding with new research in the field of CT angiography to diagnose gastrointestinal bleeding. Endoscopic and angiographic treatment modalities will be highlighted, emphasizing a multi-modality treatment plan for upper gastrointestinal bleeding. (orig.)

  18. Method of confidence domains in the analysis of noise-induced extinction for tritrophic population system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bashkirtseva, Irina; Ryashko, Lev; Ryazanova, Tatyana

    2017-09-01

    A problem of the analysis of the noise-induced extinction in multidimensional population systems is considered. For the investigation of conditions of the extinction caused by random disturbances, a new approach based on the stochastic sensitivity function technique and confidence domains is suggested, and applied to tritrophic population model of interacting prey, predator and top predator. This approach allows us to analyze constructively the probabilistic mechanisms of the transition to the noise-induced extinction from both equilibrium and oscillatory regimes of coexistence. In this analysis, a method of principal directions for the reducing of the dimension of confidence domains is suggested. In the dispersion of random states, the principal subspace is defined by the ratio of eigenvalues of the stochastic sensitivity matrix. A detailed analysis of two scenarios of the noise-induced extinction in dependence on parameters of considered tritrophic system is carried out.

  19. Binomial Distribution Sample Confidence Intervals Estimation 7. Absolute Risk Reduction and ARR-like Expressions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrei ACHIMAŞ CADARIU

    2004-08-01

    Full Text Available Assessments of a controlled clinical trial suppose to interpret some key parameters as the controlled event rate, experimental event date, relative risk, absolute risk reduction, relative risk reduction, number needed to treat when the effect of the treatment are dichotomous variables. Defined as the difference in the event rate between treatment and control groups, the absolute risk reduction is the parameter that allowed computing the number needed to treat. The absolute risk reduction is compute when the experimental treatment reduces the risk for an undesirable outcome/event. In medical literature when the absolute risk reduction is report with its confidence intervals, the method used is the asymptotic one, even if it is well know that may be inadequate. The aim of this paper is to introduce and assess nine methods of computing confidence intervals for absolute risk reduction and absolute risk reduction – like function.Computer implementations of the methods use the PHP language. Methods comparison uses the experimental errors, the standard deviations, and the deviation relative to the imposed significance level for specified sample sizes. Six methods of computing confidence intervals for absolute risk reduction and absolute risk reduction-like functions were assessed using random binomial variables and random sample sizes.The experiments shows that the ADAC, and ADAC1 methods obtains the best overall performance of computing confidence intervals for absolute risk reduction.

  20. Confidence Intervals: From tests of statistical significance to confidence intervals, range hypotheses and substantial effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dominic Beaulieu-Prévost

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available For the last 50 years of research in quantitative social sciences, the empirical evaluation of scientific hypotheses has been based on the rejection or not of the null hypothesis. However, more than 300 articles demonstrated that this method was problematic. In summary, null hypothesis testing (NHT is unfalsifiable, its results depend directly on sample size and the null hypothesis is both improbable and not plausible. Consequently, alternatives to NHT such as confidence intervals (CI and measures of effect size are starting to be used in scientific publications. The purpose of this article is, first, to provide the conceptual tools necessary to implement an approach based on confidence intervals, and second, to briefly demonstrate why such an approach is an interesting alternative to an approach based on NHT. As demonstrated in the article, the proposed CI approach avoids most problems related to a NHT approach and can often improve the scientific and contextual relevance of the statistical interpretations by testing range hypotheses instead of a point hypothesis and by defining the minimal value of a substantial effect. The main advantage of such a CI approach is that it replaces the notion of statistical power by an easily interpretable three-value logic (probable presence of a substantial effect, probable absence of a substantial effect and probabilistic undetermination. The demonstration includes a complete example.

  1. Confidence intervals for the weighted kappa coefficient of a binary diagnostic test

    OpenAIRE

    Roldán Nofuentes, José Antonio; Luna Del Castillo, Juan De Dios; Montero Alonso, Miguel Angel; Alvarado Castro, Victor Manuel

    2009-01-01

    Abstract Sensitivity and specificity are classic parameters to assess the performance of a binary diagnostic test. Another useful parameter to measure the performance of a binary test is the weighted kappa coefficient, which is a measure of the classificatory agreement between the binary test and the gold standard. Various confidence intervals are proposed for the weighted kappa coefficient when the binary test and the gold standard are applied to all of the patients in a random sa...

  2. Sequential Confidence Bands for Quantile Densities Under Truncated and Censored Data

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yong Zhou; Liu-quan Sun

    2005-01-01

    In this paper an asymptotic distribution is obtained for the maximal deviation between the kernel quantile density estimator and the quantile density when the data are subject to random left truncation and right censorship. Based on this result we propose a fully sequential procedure for constructing a fixed-width confidence band for the quantile density on a finite interval and show that the procedure has the desired coverage probability asymptotically as the width of the band approaches zero.

  3. Beyond hypercorrection: remembering corrective feedback for low-confidence errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Lauren; Higham, Philip A

    2017-07-01

    Correcting errors based on corrective feedback is essential to successful learning. Previous studies have found that corrections to high-confidence errors are better remembered than low-confidence errors (the hypercorrection effect). The aim of this study was to investigate whether corrections to low-confidence errors can also be successfully retained in some cases. Participants completed an initial multiple-choice test consisting of control, trick and easy general-knowledge questions, rated their confidence after answering each question, and then received immediate corrective feedback. After a short delay, they were given a cued-recall test consisting of the same questions. In two experiments, we found high-confidence errors to control questions were better corrected on the second test compared to low-confidence errors - the typical hypercorrection effect. However, low-confidence errors to trick questions were just as likely to be corrected as high-confidence errors. Most surprisingly, we found that memory for the feedback and original responses, not confidence or surprise, were significant predictors of error correction. We conclude that for some types of material, there is an effortful process of elaboration and problem solving prior to making low-confidence errors that facilitates memory of corrective feedback.

  4. "Yes, we can!" review on team confidence in sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fransen, Katrien; Mertens, Niels; Feltz, Deborah; Boen, Filip

    2017-08-01

    During the last decade, team confidence has received more and more attention in the sport psychology literature. Research has demonstrated that athletes who are more confident in their team's abilities exert more effort, set more challenging goals, are more resilient when facing adversities, and ultimately perform better. This article reviews the existing literature in order to provide more clarity in terms of the conceptualization and the operationalization of team confidence. We thereby distinguish between collective efficacy (i.e., process-oriented team confidence) and team outcome confidence (i.e., outcome-oriented team confidence). In addition, both the sources as well as the outcomes of team confidence will be discussed. Furthermore, we will go deeper into the dispersion of team confidence and we will evaluate the current guidelines on how to measure both types of team confidence. Building upon this base, the article then highlights interesting avenues for future research in order to further improve both our theoretical knowledge on team confidence and its application to the field. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. A meta-analysis of confidence and judgment accuracy in clinical decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Deborah J; Spengler, Elliot S; Spengler, Paul M

    2015-10-01

    The overconfidence bias occurs when clinicians overestimate the accuracy of their clinical judgments. This bias is thought to be robust leading to an almost universal recommendation by clinical judgment scholars for clinicians to temper their confidence in clinical decision making. An extension of the Meta-Analysis of Clinical Judgment (Spengler et al., 2009) project, the authors synthesized over 40 years of research from 36 studies, from 1970 to 2011, in which the confidence ratings of 1,485 clinicians were assessed in relation to the accuracy of their judgments about mental health (e.g., diagnostic decision making, violence risk assessment, prediction of treatment failure) or psychological issues (e.g., personality assessment). Using a random effects model a small but statistically significant effect (r = .15; CI = .06, .24) was found showing that confidence is better calibrated with accuracy than previously assumed. Approximately 50% of the total variance between studies was due to heterogeneity and not to chance. Mixed effects and meta-regression moderator analyses revealed that confidence is calibrated with accuracy least when there are repeated judgments, and more when there are higher base rate problems, when decisions are made with written materials, and for earlier published studies. Sensitivity analyses indicate a bias toward publishing smaller sample studies with smaller or negative confidence-accuracy effects. Implications for clinical judgment research and for counseling psychology training and practice are discussed. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  6. Are You Sure? Confidence about the Satiating Capacity of a Food Affects Subsequent Food Intake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helgi B. Schiöth

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Expectations about a food’s satiating capacity predict self-selected portion size, food intake and food choice. However, two individuals might have a similar expectation, but one might be extremely confident while the other might be guessing. It is unclear whether confidence about an expectation affects adjustments in energy intake at a subsequent meal. In a randomized cross-over design, 24 subjects participated in three separate breakfast sessions, and were served a low-energy-dense preload (53 kcal/100 g, a high-energy-dense preload (94 kcal/100 g, or no preload. Subjects received ambiguous information about the preload’s satiating capacity and rated how confident they were about their expected satiation before consuming the preload in its entirety. They were served an ad libitum test meal 30 min later. Confidence ratings were negatively associated with energy compensation after consuming the high-energy-dense preload (r = −0.61; p = 0.001. The same relationship was evident after consuming the low-energy-dense preload, but only after controlling for dietary restraint, hunger prior to, and liking of the test meal (p = 0.03. Our results suggest that confidence modifies short-term controls of food intake by affecting energy compensation. These results merit consideration because imprecise caloric compensation has been identified as a potential risk factor for a positive energy balance and weight gain.

  7. Short-Term Effects of Kinesio Taping and Cross Taping Application in the Treatment of Latent Upper Trapezius Trigger Points: A Prospective, Single-Blind, Randomized, Sham-Controlled Trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halski, Tomasz; Ptaszkowski, Kuba; Słupska, Lucyna; Paprocka-Borowicz, Małgorzata; Dymarek, Robert; Taradaj, Jakub; Bidzińska, Gabriela; Marczyński, Daniel; Cynarska, Aleksandra; Rosińczuk, Joanna

    2015-01-01

    Kinesio taping (KT) may be a new treatment in patients with myofascial trigger points (MTrPs). A new method available for taping practitioners is cross taping (CT). The main objective was to determine how CT, KT, and medical adhesive tape (sham group) affect the subjective assessment of resting bioelectrical activity and pain of the upper trapezius muscle (UT) in patients with MTrPs. 105 volunteers were recruited to participate. The primary outcome was resting bioelectrical activity of UT muscle as assessed by surface electromyography (sEMG) in each group and pain intensity on a visual analog scale (VAS). Assessments were collected before and after intervention and after the 24-hours follow-up. No significant differences were observed in bioelectrical activity of UT between pre-, post-, and follow-up results. In three groups patients had significantly lower pain VAS score after the intervention (CT—p tapes does not influence the resting bioelectrical activity of UT muscle and may not lead to a reduction in muscle tone in the case of MTrPs. PMID:26491458

  8. Short-Term Effects of Kinesio Taping and Cross Taping Application in the Treatment of Latent Upper Trapezius Trigger Points: A Prospective, Single-Blind, Randomized, Sham-Controlled Trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz Halski

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Kinesio taping (KT may be a new treatment in patients with myofascial trigger points (MTrPs. A new method available for taping practitioners is cross taping (CT. The main objective was to determine how CT, KT, and medical adhesive tape (sham group affect the subjective assessment of resting bioelectrical activity and pain of the upper trapezius muscle (UT in patients with MTrPs. 105 volunteers were recruited to participate. The primary outcome was resting bioelectrical activity of UT muscle as assessed by surface electromyography (sEMG in each group and pain intensity on a visual analog scale (VAS. Assessments were collected before and after intervention and after the 24-hours follow-up. No significant differences were observed in bioelectrical activity of UT between pre-, post-, and follow-up results. In three groups patients had significantly lower pain VAS score after the intervention (CT—p<0.001, KT—p<0.001, and sham—p<0.01. The Kruskal-Wallis ANOVA showed no significant differences in almost all measurements between groups. The application of all three types of tapes does not influence the resting bioelectrical activity of UT muscle and may not lead to a reduction in muscle tone in the case of MTrPs.

  9. Tranexamic acid for upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Cathy; Klingenberg, Sarah Louise; Langholz, Ebbe; Gluud, Lise Lotte

    2014-11-21

    Background Tranexamic acid reduces haemorrhage through its antifibrinolytic effects. In a previous version of the present review, we found that tranexamic acid may reduce mortality. This review includes updated searches and new trials.Objectives To assess the effects of tranexamic acid versus no intervention, placebo or other antiulcer drugs for upper gastrointestinal bleeding.Search methods We updated the review by performing electronic database searches (Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL),MEDLINE, EMBASE, Science Citation Index) and manual searches in July 2014.Selection criteriaRandomised controlled trials, irrespective of language or publication status.Data collection and analysis We used the standard methodological procedures of the The Cochrane Collaboration. All-cause mortality, bleeding and adverse events were the primary outcome measures. We performed fixed-effect and random-effects model meta-analyses and presented results as risk ratios (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and used I² as a measure of between-trial heterogeneity. We analysed tranexamic acid versus placebo or no intervention and tranexamic acid versus antiulcer drugs separately. To analyse sources of heterogeneity and robustness of the overall results, we performed subgroup, sensitivity and sequential analyses.Main results We included eight randomised controlled trials on tranexamic acid for upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Additionally, we identified one large ongoing pragmatic randomised controlled trial from which data are not yet available. Control groups were randomly assigned to placebo (seven trials) or no intervention (one trial). Two trials also included a control group randomly assigned to antiulcer drugs(lansoprazole or cimetidine). The included studies were published from 1973 to 2011. The number of participants randomly assigned ranged from 47 to 216 (median 204). All trials reported mortality. In total, 42 of 851 participants randomly assigned to

  10. [Upper extremity arterial diseases].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, F

    2007-02-01

    Compared to lower limb arterial diseases, upper limb arterial diseases look rare, heterogeneous with various etiologies and a rather vague clinical picture, but with a negligible risk of amputation. Almost all types of arterial diseases can be present in the upper limb, but the anatomical and hemodynamic conditions particular to the upper limb often confuse the issue. Thus, atherosclerosis affects mainly the subclavian artery in its proximal segment where the potential of collateral pathway is high making the symptomatic forms not very frequent whereas the prevalence of subclavian artery stenosis or occlusion is relatively high. The clinical examination and the etiologies are discussed according to the clinical, anatomical and hemodynamic context.

  11. Can confidence indicators forecast the probability of expansion in Croatia?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirjana Čižmešija

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate how reliable are confidence indicators in forecasting the probability of expansion. We consider three Croatian Business Survey indicators: the Industrial Confidence Indicator (ICI, the Construction Confidence Indicator (BCI and the Retail Trade Confidence Indicator (RTCI. The quarterly data, used in the research, covered the periods from 1999/Q1 to 2014/Q1. Empirical analysis consists of two parts. The non-parametric Bry-Boschan algorithm is used for distinguishing periods of expansion from the period of recession in the Croatian economy. Then, various nonlinear probit models were estimated. The models differ with respect to the regressors (confidence indicators and the time lags. The positive signs of estimated parameters suggest that the probability of expansion increases with an increase in Confidence Indicators. Based on the obtained results, the conclusion is that ICI is the most powerful predictor of the probability of expansion in Croatia.

  12. Confidence bounds for nonlinear dose-response relationships

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baayen, C; Hougaard, P

    2015-01-01

    . It is well known that Wald confidence intervals are based on linear approximations and are often unsatisfactory in nonlinear models. Apart from incorrect coverage rates, they can be unreasonable in the sense that the lower confidence limit of the difference to placebo can be negative, even when an overall...... test shows a significant positive effect. Bootstrap confidence intervals solve many of the problems of the Wald confidence intervals but are computationally intensive and prone to undercoverage for small sample sizes. In this work, we propose a profile likelihood approach to compute confidence...... intervals for the dose-response curve. These confidence bounds have better coverage than Wald intervals and are more precise and generally faster than bootstrap methods. Moreover, if monotonicity is assumed, the profile likelihood approach takes this automatically into account. The approach is illustrated...

  13. Anomalous Evidence, Confidence Change, and Theory Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hemmerich, Joshua A; Van Voorhis, Kellie; Wiley, Jennifer

    2016-08-01

    A novel experimental paradigm that measured theory change and confidence in participants' theories was used in three experiments to test the effects of anomalous evidence. Experiment 1 varied the amount of anomalous evidence to see if "dose size" made incremental changes in confidence toward theory change. Experiment 2 varied whether anomalous evidence was convergent (of multiple types) or replicating (similar finding repeated). Experiment 3 varied whether participants were provided with an alternative theory that explained the anomalous evidence. All experiments showed that participants' confidence changes were commensurate with the amount of anomalous evidence presented, and that larger decreases in confidence predicted theory changes. Convergent evidence and the presentation of an alternative theory led to larger confidence change. Convergent evidence also caused more theory changes. Even when people do not change theories, factors pertinent to the evidence and alternative theories decrease their confidence in their current theory and move them incrementally closer to theory change.

  14. Is consumer confidence an indicator of JSE performance?

    OpenAIRE

    Kamini Solanki; Yudhvir Seetharam

    2014-01-01

    While most studies examine the impact of business confidence on market performance, we instead focus on the consumer because consumer spending habits are a natural extension of trading activity on the equity market. This particular study examines investor sentiment as measured by the Consumer Confidence Index in South Africa and its effect on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). We employ Granger causality tests to investigate the relationship across time between the Consumer Confidence Ind...

  15. Confidence of model based shape reconstruction from sparse data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baka, N.; de Bruijne, Marleen; Reiber, J. H. C.

    2010-01-01

    and assign a confidence value to the resulting reconstructed shape. An evaluation study is performed to compare three methods used for sparse SSM fitting w.r.t. specificity, generalization ability, and correctness of estimated confidence limits with an increasing amount of input information. We find...... that the proposed constrained shape model outperforms the other models, is robust against the selection and amount of sparse information, and indicates the shape confidence well....

  16. The Effect of Self-confidence in SLA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李艳

    2012-01-01

      Krashen’s affective filter theory drew researchers’ attention to the fresh field of internal factors of learners. But researchers seem to pay too much attention to the other factors while tending to neglect a factor that we cannot afford to play down in language learning research—self-confidence. This paper is designed to discuss the close relationship between self-confidence and some of the other important affective factors, and furthermore raise appropriate concern over self-confidence.

  17. Improved realism of confidence for an episodic memory event

    OpenAIRE

    Sandra Buratti; Carl Martin Allwood

    2012-01-01

    We asked whether people can make their confidence judgments more realistic (accurate) by adjusting them, with the aim of improving the relationship between the level of confidence and the correctness of the answer. This adjustment can be considered to include a so-called second-order metacognitive judgment. The participants first gave confidence judgments about their answers to questions about a video clip they had just watched. Next, they attempted to increase their accuracy by identifying c...

  18. Doubly Bayesian Analysis of Confidence in Perceptual Decision-Making.

    OpenAIRE

    Aitchison, L.; Bang, D; Bahrami, B.; Latham, P.E.

    2015-01-01

    Humans stand out from other animals in that they are able to explicitly report on the reliability of their internal operations. This ability, which is known as metacognition, is typically studied by asking people to report their confidence in the correctness of some decision. However, the computations underlying confidence reports remain unclear. In this paper, we present a fully Bayesian method for directly comparing models of confidence. Using a visual two-interval forced-choice task, we te...

  19. Generalized Confidence Interval for the Common Coefficient of Variation

    OpenAIRE

    Behboodian, Javad; Jafari, Ali Akbar

    2014-01-01

    In this article, we consider the problem of constructing the confidence interval and testing hypothesis for the common coefficient of variation (CV) of several normal populations. A new method is suggested using the concepts of generalized p-value and generalized confidence interval. Using this new method and a method proposed by Tian (2005), we obtain a shorter confidence interval for the common CV. This combination method has good properties in terms of length and coverage probability compa...

  20. Boosting confidence: is there a role for fiscal policy?

    OpenAIRE

    Panagiotis Konstantinou; Athanasios Tagkalakis

    2010-01-01

    This paper investigates the widely held view that expansionary fiscal policy can boost consumer and business confidence, which will stimulate private spending and sustain economic activity. We find evidence in favor of this conjecture, i.e., cuts in direct taxes generate a positive effect on consumer and business confidence, while the same applies in cases of higher non-wage government consumption. However, higher government wage bills and government investment reduce confidence, possibly bec...

  1. Relating confidence to measured information uncertainty in qualitative reasoning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chavez, Gregory M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Zerkle, David K [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Key, Brian P [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Shevitz, Daniel W [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2010-10-07

    Qualitative reasoning makes use of qualitative assessments provided by subject matter experts to model factors such as security risk. Confidence in a result is important and useful when comparing competing results. Quantifying the confidence in an evidential reasoning result must be consistent and based on the available information. A novel method is proposed to relate confidence to the available information uncertainty in the result using fuzzy sets. Information uncertainty can be quantified through measures of non-specificity and conflict. Fuzzy values for confidence are established from information uncertainty values that lie between the measured minimum and maximum information uncertainty values.

  2. Cultural competence knowledge and confidence after classroom activities

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Muzumdar, Jagannath Mohan; Holiday-Goodman, Monica; Black, Curtis; Powers, Mary

    2010-01-01

    To determine change in cultural competency knowledge and perceived confidence of second-year pharmacy students to deliver culturally competent care after completing a required cultural competency curriculum...

  3. Confidence Intervals for Standardized Effect Sizes: Theory, Application, and Implementation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ken Kelley

    2007-02-01

    Full Text Available The behavioral, educational, and social sciences are undergoing a paradigmatic shift in methodology, from disciplines that focus on the dichotomous outcome of null hypothesis significance tests to disciplines that report and interpret effect sizes and their corresponding confidence intervals. Due to the arbitrariness of many measurement instruments used in the behavioral, educational, and social sciences, some of the most widely reported effect sizes are standardized. Although forming confidence intervals for standardized effect sizes can be very beneficial, such confidence interval procedures are generally difficult to implement because they depend on noncentral t, F, and x2 distributions. At present, no main-stream statistical package provides exact confidence intervals for standardized effects without the use of specialized programming scripts. Methods for the Behavioral, Educational, and Social Sciences (MBESS is an R package that has routines for calculating confidence intervals for noncentral t, F, and x2 distributions, which are then used in the calculation of exact confidence intervals for standardized effect sizes by using the confidence interval transformation and inversion principles. The present article discusses the way in which confidence intervals are formed for standardized effect sizes and illustrates how such confidence intervals can be easily formed using MBESS in R.

  4. Confidence measurement in the light of signal detection theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massoni, Sébastien; Gajdos, Thibault; Vergnaud, Jean-Christophe

    2014-01-01

    We compare three alternative methods for eliciting retrospective confidence in the context of a simple perceptual task: the Simple Confidence Rating (a direct report on a numerical scale), the Quadratic Scoring Rule (a post-wagering procedure), and the Matching Probability (MP; a generalization of the no-loss gambling method). We systematically compare the results obtained with these three rules to the theoretical confidence levels that can be inferred from performance in the perceptual task using Signal Detection Theory (SDT). We find that the MP provides better results in that respect. We conclude that MP is particularly well suited for studies of confidence that use SDT as a theoretical framework.

  5. Confidence measurement in the light of signal detection theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massoni, Sébastien; Gajdos, Thibault; Vergnaud, Jean-Christophe

    2014-01-01

    We compare three alternative methods for eliciting retrospective confidence in the context of a simple perceptual task: the Simple Confidence Rating (a direct report on a numerical scale), the Quadratic Scoring Rule (a post-wagering procedure), and the Matching Probability (MP; a generalization of the no-loss gambling method). We systematically compare the results obtained with these three rules to the theoretical confidence levels that can be inferred from performance in the perceptual task using Signal Detection Theory (SDT). We find that the MP provides better results in that respect. We conclude that MP is particularly well suited for studies of confidence that use SDT as a theoretical framework. PMID:25566135

  6. ACA Federal Upper Limits

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Affordable Care Act Federal Upper Limits (FUL) based on the weighted average of the most recently reported monthly average manufacturer price (AMP) for...

  7. Upper GI Endoscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... to diagnose conditions such as cancer celiac disease gastritis Doctors also use upper GI endoscopy to treat ... Bhutani MS. Esophagogastroduodenoscopy. Medscape website. emedicine.medscape.com/article/1851864-overview#a17 . Updated June 3, 2013. Accessed ...

  8. Upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feinman, Marcie; Haut, Elliott R

    2014-02-01

    Upper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding remains a commonly encountered diagnosis for acute care surgeons. Initial stabilization and resuscitation of patients is imperative. Stable patients can have initiation of medical therapy and localization of the bleeding, whereas persistently unstable patients require emergent endoscopic or operative intervention. Minimally invasive techniques have surpassed surgery as the treatment of choice for most upper GI bleeding. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. The Effect of Upper Limb Massage on Infants' Venipuncture Pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chik, Yuen-Man; Ip, Wan-Yim; Choi, Kai-Chow

    2017-02-01

    The purpose of the study was to investigate the effect of upper limb massage on relieving pain among infants undergoing venipuncture in Hong Kong. This study was a crossover, double-blind, randomized controlled trial. Eighty infants at the neonatal intensive care unit were randomly assigned to 2 groups in different order to receive interventions. The massage first group (N = 40) received 2-minute massage before venipuncture on the first occasion then received usual care (control) on the second occasion, and vice versa in the massage second group (N = 40). The infants' behavior and physiological responses were recorded on two occasions: (1) right after the intervention and (2) during the first 30 seconds of venipuncture procedure. The mean pain scores (Premature Infant Pain Profile) were significantly lower in infants who received massage (massage first: 6.0 [standard deviation = 3.3]; massage second: 7.30 [standard deviation = 4.4]) versus control (massage first: 12.0 [standard deviation = 4.3]; massage second: 12.7 [standard deviation = 3.1]). The crude and adjusted generalized estimating equations model showed that the infants had significantly lower pain score when receiving massage as compared to receiving the control treatment, and there were no significant time and carryover effects: -6.03 (95% confidence interval: -7.67 to -4.38), p massage may be effective in decreasing infants' venipuncture pain perception. Copyright © 2016 American Society for Pain Management Nursing. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Upper GI Bleeding in Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Upper GI Bleeding in Children What is upper GI Bleeding? Irritation and ulcers of the lining of the esophagus, stomach or duodenum can result in upper GI bleeding. When this occurs the child may vomit ...

  11. Upper GI Bleeding in Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Upper GI Bleeding in Children What is upper GI Bleeding? Irritation and ulcers of the lining of the esophagus, stomach or duodenum can result in upper GI bleeding. When this occurs the child may vomit blood ...

  12. Upper Limits on O VI Emission from Voyager Observations

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Jayant Murthy

    2002-03-01

    We have examined 426 Voyager fields distributed across the sky for O VI ( 1032/1038 Å) emission from the Galactic diffuse interstellar medium. No such emission was detected in any of our observed fields. Our most constraining limit was a 90% confidence upper limit of 2600 photons cm-2 sr-1 s-1 on the doublet emission in the direction (l, b) = (117.3, 50.6). Combining this with an absorption line measurement in nearly the same direction allows us to place an upper limit of 0.01 cm-3 on the electron density of the hot gas in this direction. We have placed 90% confidence upper limits of less than or equal to 10,000 photons cm-2 sr-1 s-1 on the O VI emission in 16 of our 426 observations.

  13. Ferric ammonium citrate as a positive bowel contrast agent for MR imaging of the upper abdomen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kivelitz, D.; Taupitz, M.; Hamm, B. [Universitaetsklinikum Charite, Berlin (Germany). Inst. fuer Radiologie; Gehl, H.B. [Medizinische Univ. Luebeck (Germany). Inst. fuer Radiologie; Heuck, A. [Muenchen Univ. (Germany). Radiologische Klinik; Krahe, T. [Koeln Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Radiologische Diagnostik; Lodemann, K.P. [Bracco-Byk Gulden GmbH, Konstanz (Germany)

    1999-07-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the safety and diagnostic efficacy of two different doses of ferric ammonium citrate as a paramagnetic oral contrast agent for MR imaging of the upper abdomen. Material and methods: Ninety-nine adult patients referred for MR imaging for a known or suspected upper abdominal pathology were included in this randomized multicenter double-blind clinical trial. Imaging was performed with spin-echo (T1- and T2-weighted) and gradient-echo (T1-weighted) techniques before and after administration of either 1200 mg or 2400 mg of ferric ammonium citrate dissolved in 600 ml of water. Safety analysis included monitoring of vital signs, assessment of adverse events, and laboratory testing. Efficacy with regard to organ distension, contrast distribution, bowel enhancement and delineation of adjacent structures was graded qualitatively. Results: No serious adverse events were reported for either of the two concentrations. A total of 31 minor side effects were noted, of which significantly more occurred in the higher dose group (p<0.01). The diagnostic confidence in defining or excluding disease was graded as better after contrast administration for 48% of all images. Marked or moderate enhancement of the upper gastrointestinal tract was achieved at both doses in 69.5% of cases with no evident difference between the two doses. The higher dose tended to show better results in terms of the contrast assessment parameters. Conclusion: Ferric ammonium citrate is a safe and effective oral contrast agent for MR imaging of the upper abdomen at two different dose levels. The higher dose showed a tendency toward better imaging results while the lower dose caused significantly fewer side effects. Therefore, the 1200 mg dose can be recommended in view of the risk-to-benefit ratio. (orig.)

  14. RIASEC Interest and Confidence Cutoff Scores: Implications for Career Counseling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonitz, Verena S.; Armstrong, Patrick Ian; Larson, Lisa M.

    2010-01-01

    One strategy commonly used to simplify the joint interpretation of interest and confidence inventories is the use of cutoff scores to classify individuals dichotomously as having high or low levels of confidence and interest, respectively. The present study examined the adequacy of cutoff scores currently recommended for the joint interpretation…

  15. The Appropriateness of Confidence Ratings in Clinical Judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garb, Howard N.

    1986-01-01

    Reviewed studies in which clinicians made judgments and then rated the degree of confidence that they had in each of their judgments. Results reveal little support for the hypothesis that clinicians are overconfident. Confidence ratings were related positively to the validity of judgments in a number of studies. Experienced clinicians made more…

  16. The Restoration of Confidence in Science and Technology Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bybee, Rodger W.

    1985-01-01

    An analysis is given of the crisis and loss of confidence in science and technology education, due in part to maintenance of outdated purposes, programs, and practices. The need to clarify and reformulate goals and purposes and thus restore confidence is discussed. (MNS)

  17. Trust, confidence, and the 2008 global financial crisis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earle, Timothy C

    2009-06-01

    The 2008 global financial crisis has been compared to a "once-in-a-century credit tsunami," a disaster in which the loss of trust and confidence played key precipitating roles and the recovery from which will require the restoration of these crucial factors. Drawing on the analogy between the financial crisis and environmental and technological hazards, recent research on the role of trust and confidence in the latter is used to provide a perspective on the former. Whereas "trust" and "confidence" are used interchangeably and without explicit definition in most discussions of the financial crisis, this perspective uses the TCC model of cooperation to clearly distinguish between the two and to demonstrate how this distinction can lead to an improved understanding of the crisis. The roles of trust and confidence-both in precipitation and in possible recovery-are discussed for each of the three major sets of actors in the crisis, the regulators, the banks, and the public. The roles of trust and confidence in the larger context of risk management are also examined; trust being associated with political approaches, confidence with technical. Finally, the various stances that government can take with regard to trust-such as supportive or skeptical-are considered. Overall, it is argued that a clear understanding of trust and confidence and a close examination of the specific, concrete circumstances of a crisis-revealing when either trust or confidence is appropriate-can lead to useful insights for both recovery and prevention of future occurrences.

  18. Confidence in the Criminal Justice System: Does experience count?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.G.J. Van de Walle (Steven)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractPublic confidence in the justice system is relatively low compared to that in many other institutions. Part of this lack of confidence has been attributed to a low public understanding of how the justice system really works. Experience with the justice system is often identified as a way

  19. Computer Use, Confidence, Attitudes, and Knowledge: A Causal Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Tamar; Donitsa-Schmidt, Smadar

    1998-01-01

    Introduces a causal model which links measures of computer experience, computer-related attitudes, computer-related confidence, and perceived computer-based knowledge. The causal model suggests that computer use has a positive effect on perceived computer self-confidence, as well as on computer-related attitudes. Questionnaires were administered…

  20. Utilitarian Model of Measuring Confidence within Knowledge-Based Societies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jack, Brady Michael; Hung, Kuan-Ming; Liu, Chia Ju; Chiu, Houn Lin

    2009-01-01

    This paper introduces a utilitarian confidence testing statistic called Risk Inclination Model (RIM) which indexes all possible confidence wagering combinations within the confines of a defined symmetrically point-balanced test environment. This paper presents the theoretical underpinnings, a formal derivation, a hypothetical application, and…

  1. A simultaneous confidence band for sparse longitudinal regression

    KAUST Repository

    Ma, Shujie

    2012-01-01

    Functional data analysis has received considerable recent attention and a number of successful applications have been reported. In this paper, asymptotically simultaneous confidence bands are obtained for the mean function of the functional regression model, using piecewise constant spline estimation. Simulation experiments corroborate the asymptotic theory. The confidence band procedure is illustrated by analyzing CD4 cell counts of HIV infected patients.

  2. Confidence in the Criminal Justice System: Does experience count?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.G.J. Van de Walle (Steven)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractPublic confidence in the justice system is relatively low compared to that in many other institutions. Part of this lack of confidence has been attributed to a low public understanding of how the justice system really works. Experience with the justice system is often identified as a way

  3. Confidence Sharing in the Vocational Counselling Interview: Emergence and Repercussions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olry-Louis, Isabelle; Bremond, Capucine; Pouliot, Manon

    2012-01-01

    Confidence sharing is an asymmetrical dialogic episode to which both parties consent, in which one reveals something personal to the other who participates in the emergence and unfolding of the confidence. We describe how this is achieved at a discursive level within vocational counselling interviews. Based on a corpus of 64 interviews, we analyse…

  4. Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Applying Bootstrap Resampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banjanovic, Erin S.; Osborne, Jason W.

    2016-01-01

    Confidence intervals for effect sizes (CIES) provide readers with an estimate of the strength of a reported statistic as well as the relative precision of the point estimate. These statistics offer more information and context than null hypothesis statistic testing. Although confidence intervals have been recommended by scholars for many years,…

  5. Music Education Preservice Teachers' Confidence in Resolving Behavior Problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hedden, Debra G.

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate whether there would be a change in preservice teachers' (a) confidence concerning the resolution of behavior problems, (b) tactics for resolving them, (c) anticipation of problems, (d) fears about management issues, and (e) confidence in methodology and pedagogy over the time period of a one-semester…

  6. 49 CFR 1103.23 - Confidences of a client.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... OF TRANSPORTATION RULES OF PRACTICE PRACTITIONERS Canons of Ethics The Practitioner's Duties and Responsibilities Toward A Client § 1103.23 Confidences of a client. (a) The practitioner's duty to preserve his client's confidence outlasts the practitioner's employment by the client, and this duty extends to the...

  7. nigerian students' self-confidence in responding to statements of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Temechegn

    The goal of the study was to find out the self-confidence and confidence level of senior ... Specifically, chemistry teachers ask students this question when an ... high school students from connecting with scientific principles in the way ... chemical reaction, ability to identify factors that affect equilibrium reactions and ability to.

  8. Monitoring consumer confidence in food safety: an exploratory study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonge, de J.; Frewer, L.J.; Trijp, van J.C.M.; Renes, R.J.; Wit, de W.; Timmers, J.C.M.

    2004-01-01

    Abstract: In response to the potential for negative economic and societal effects resulting from a low level of consumer confidence in food safety, it is important to know how confidence is potentially influenced by external events. The aim of this article is to describe the development of a monitor

  9. Understanding public confidence in government to prevent terrorist attacks.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baldwin, T. E.; Ramaprasad, A,; Samsa, M. E.; Decision and Information Sciences; Univ. of Illinois at Chicago

    2008-04-02

    A primary goal of terrorism is to instill a sense of fear and vulnerability in a population and to erode its confidence in government and law enforcement agencies to protect citizens against future attacks. In recognition of its importance, the Department of Homeland Security includes public confidence as one of the principal metrics used to assess the consequences of terrorist attacks. Hence, a detailed understanding of the variations in public confidence among individuals, terrorist event types, and as a function of time is critical to developing this metric. In this exploratory study, a questionnaire was designed, tested, and administered to small groups of individuals to measure public confidence in the ability of federal, state, and local governments and their public safety agencies to prevent acts of terrorism. Data was collected from three groups before and after they watched mock television news broadcasts portraying a smallpox attack, a series of suicide bomber attacks, a refinery explosion attack, and cyber intrusions on financial institutions, resulting in identity theft. Our findings are: (a) although the aggregate confidence level is low, there are optimists and pessimists; (b) the subjects are discriminating in interpreting the nature of a terrorist attack, the time horizon, and its impact; (c) confidence recovery after a terrorist event has an incubation period; and (d) the patterns of recovery of confidence of the optimists and the pessimists are different. These findings can affect the strategy and policies to manage public confidence after a terrorist event.

  10. Sample Size for the "Z" Test and Its Confidence Interval

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiaofeng Steven

    2012-01-01

    The statistical power of a significance test is closely related to the length of the confidence interval (i.e. estimate precision). In the case of a "Z" test, the length of the confidence interval can be expressed as a function of the statistical power. (Contains 1 figure and 1 table.)

  11. Confidence Scoring of Speaking Performance: How Does Fuzziness become Exact?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Tan; Mak, Barley; Zhou, Pei

    2012-01-01

    The fuzziness of assessing second language speaking performance raises two difficulties in scoring speaking performance: "indistinction between adjacent levels" and "overlap between scales". To address these two problems, this article proposes a new approach, "confidence scoring", to deal with such fuzziness, leading to "confidence" scores between…

  12. The Metamemory Approach to Confidence: A Test Using Semantic Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brewer, William F.; Sampaio, Cristina

    2012-01-01

    The metamemory approach to memory confidence was extended and elaborated to deal with semantic memory tasks. The metamemory approach assumes that memory confidence is based on the products and processes of a completed memory task, as well as metamemory beliefs that individuals have about how their memory products and processes relate to memory…

  13. Variance misperception explains illusions of confidence in simple perceptual decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zylberberg, A.; Roelfsema, Pieter R; Sigman, Mariano

    Confidence in a perceptual decision is a judgment about the quality of the sensory evidence. The quality of the evidence depends not only on its strength ('signal') but critically on its reliability ('noise'), but the separate contribution of these quantities to the formation of confidence judgments

  14. Confidence Sharing in the Vocational Counselling Interview: Emergence and Repercussions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olry-Louis, Isabelle; Bremond, Capucine; Pouliot, Manon

    2012-01-01

    Confidence sharing is an asymmetrical dialogic episode to which both parties consent, in which one reveals something personal to the other who participates in the emergence and unfolding of the confidence. We describe how this is achieved at a discursive level within vocational counselling interviews. Based on a corpus of 64 interviews, we analyse…

  15. Animal Spirits and Extreme Confidence: No Guts, No Glory?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.G. Douwens-Zonneveld (Mariska)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractThis study investigates to what extent extreme confidence of either management or security analysts may impact financial or operating performance. We construct a multidimensional degree of company confidence measure from a wide range of corporate decisions. We empirically test this measu

  16. Confidence Scoring of Speaking Performance: How Does Fuzziness become Exact?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Tan; Mak, Barley; Zhou, Pei

    2012-01-01

    The fuzziness of assessing second language speaking performance raises two difficulties in scoring speaking performance: "indistinction between adjacent levels" and "overlap between scales". To address these two problems, this article proposes a new approach, "confidence scoring", to deal with such fuzziness, leading to "confidence" scores between…

  17. True and False Memories, Parietal Cortex, and Confidence Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urgolites, Zhisen J.; Smith, Christine N.; Squire, Larry R.

    2015-01-01

    Recent studies have asked whether activity in the medial temporal lobe (MTL) and the neocortex can distinguish true memory from false memory. A frequent complication has been that the confidence associated with correct memory judgments (true memory) is typically higher than the confidence associated with incorrect memory judgments (false memory).…

  18. Confidence in Forced-Choice Recognition: What Underlies the Ratings?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zawadzka, Katarzyna; Higham, Philip A; Hanczakowski, Maciej

    2016-09-29

    Two-alternative forced-choice recognition tests are commonly used to assess recognition accuracy that is uncontaminated by changes in bias. In such tests, participants are asked to endorse the studied item out of 2 presented alternatives. Participants may be further asked to provide confidence judgments for their recognition decisions. It is often assumed that both recognition decisions and confidence judgments in 2-alternative forced-choice recognition tests depend on participants' assessments of a difference in strength of memory evidence supporting the 2 alternatives-the relative account. In the present study we focus on the basis of confidence judgments and we assess the relative account of confidence against the absolute account of confidence, by which in assigning confidence participants consider only strength of memory evidence supporting the chosen alternative. The results of the study show that confidence in 2-alternative forced-choice recognition decisions is higher when memory evidence is stronger for the chosen alternative and also when memory evidence is stronger for the unchosen alternative. These patterns of results are consistent with the absolute account of confidence in 2-alternative forced-choice recognition but they are inconsistent with the relative account. (PsycINFO Database Record

  19. Sample Size for the "Z" Test and Its Confidence Interval

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiaofeng Steven

    2012-01-01

    The statistical power of a significance test is closely related to the length of the confidence interval (i.e. estimate precision). In the case of a "Z" test, the length of the confidence interval can be expressed as a function of the statistical power. (Contains 1 figure and 1 table.)

  20. The Self-Consistency Model of Subjective Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koriat, Asher

    2012-01-01

    How do people monitor the correctness of their answers? A self-consistency model is proposed for the process underlying confidence judgments and their accuracy. In answering a 2-alternative question, participants are assumed to retrieve a sample of representations of the question and base their confidence on the consistency with which the chosen…

  1. Improved realism of confidence for an episodic memory event

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Buratti

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available We asked whether people can make their confidence judgments more realistic (accurate by adjusting them, with the aim of improving the relationship between the level of confidence and the correctness of the answer. This adjustment can be considered to include a so-called second-order metacognitive judgment. The participants first gave confidence judgments about their answers to questions about a video clip they had just watched. Next, they attempted to increase their accuracy by identifying confidence judgments in need of adjustment and then modifying them. The participants managed to increase their metacognitive realism, thus decreasing their absolute bias and improving their calibration, although the effects were small. We also examined the relationship between confidence judgments that were adjusted and the retrieval fluency and the phenomenological memory quality participants experienced when first answering the questions; this quality was one of either Remember (associated with concrete, vivid details or Know (associated with a feeling of familiarity. Confidence judgments associated with low retrieval fluency and the memory quality of knowing were modified more often. In brief, our results provide evidence that people can improve the realism of their confidence judgments, mainly by decreasing their confidence for incorrect answers. Thus, this study supports the conclusion that people can perform successful second-order metacognitive judgments.

  2. Confidence bounds for normal and lognormal distribution coefficients of variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steve Verrill

    2003-01-01

    This paper compares the so-called exact approach for obtaining confidence intervals on normal distribution coefficients of variation to approximate methods. Approximate approaches were found to perform less well than the exact approach for large coefficients of variation and small sample sizes. Web-based computer programs are described for calculating confidence...

  3. Confidence set interference with a prior quadratic bound. [in geophysics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Backus, George E.

    1989-01-01

    Neyman's (1937) theory of confidence sets is developed as a replacement for Bayesian interference (BI) and stochastic inversion (SI) when the prior information is a hard quadratic bound. It is recommended that BI and SI be replaced by confidence set interference (CSI) only in certain circumstances. The geomagnetic problem is used to illustrate the general theory of CSI.

  4. True and False Memories, Parietal Cortex, and Confidence Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urgolites, Zhisen J.; Smith, Christine N.; Squire, Larry R.

    2015-01-01

    Recent studies have asked whether activity in the medial temporal lobe (MTL) and the neocortex can distinguish true memory from false memory. A frequent complication has been that the confidence associated with correct memory judgments (true memory) is typically higher than the confidence associated with incorrect memory judgments (false memory).…

  5. THE ADOLESCENT MEASURE OF CONFIDENCE AND MUSCULOSKELETAL PERFORMANCE (AMCAMP): DEVELOPMENT AND INITIAL VALIDATION

    Science.gov (United States)

    May, Keith H.; Edwards, Michael C.; Goldstein, Marc S.

    2016-01-01

    Background Although the relationship of self-efficacy to sports performance is well established, little attention has been paid to self-efficacy in the movements or actions that are required to perform daily activities and prepare the individual to resume sports participation following an injury and associated period of rehabilitation. There are no instruments to measure self-confidence in movement validated in an adolescent population. Purpose The purpose of this paper is to report on the development of the AMCaMP, a self-report measure of confidence in movement and provide some initial evidence to support its use as a measure of confidence in movement. Methods The AMCaMP was adapted from OPTIMAL, a self-report instrument that measures confidence in movement, which had been previously designed and validated in an adult population. Data were collected from 1,115 adolescent athletes from 12 outpatient physical therapy clinics in a single healthcare system. Results Exploratory factor analysis of the 22 items of the AMCaMP using a test sample revealed a three factor structure (trunk, lower body, upper body). Confirmatory factor analysis using a validation sample demonstrated a similar model fit with the data. Reliability of scores on each of three clusters of items identified by factor analysis was assessed with coefficient alpha (range = 0.82 to 0.94), Standard Error of Measurement (1.38 to 2.74), and Minimum Detectable Change (3.83 to 7.6). Conclusions AMCaMP has acceptable psychometric properties for use in adolescents (ages 11 to 18) as a patient-centric outcome measure of confidence in movement abilities after rehabilitation. Level of Evidence IV

  6. Predictive value of readiness, importance, and confidence in ability to change drinking and smoking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertholet, Nicolas; Gaume, Jacques; Faouzi, Mohamed; Gmel, Gerhard; Daeppen, Jean-Bernard

    2012-08-29

    Visual analog scales (VAS) are sometimes used to assess change constructs that are often considered critical for change. 1.) To determine the association of readiness to change, importance of changing and confidence in ability to change alcohol and tobacco use at baseline with the risk for drinking (more than 21 drinks per week/6 drinks or more on a single occasion more than once per month) and smoking (one or more cigarettes per day) six months later. 2.) To determine the association of readiness, importance and confidence with alcohol (number of drinks/week, number of binge drinking episodes/month) and tobacco (number of cigarettes/day) use at six months. This is a secondary analysis of data from a multi-substance brief intervention randomized trial. A sample of 461 Swiss young men was analyzed as a prospective cohort. Participants were assessed at baseline and six months later on alcohol and tobacco use, and at baseline on readiness to change, importance of changing and confidence in ability to change constructs, using visual analog scales ranging from 1-10 for drinking and smoking behaviors. Regression models controlling for receipt of brief intervention were employed for each change construct. The lowest level (1-4) of each scale was the reference group that was compared to the medium (5-7) and high (8-10) levels. Among the 377 subjects reporting unhealthy alcohol use at baseline, mean (SD) readiness, importance and confidence to change drinking scores were 3.9 (3.0), 2.7 (2.2) and 7.2 (3.0), respectively. At follow-up, 108 (29%) reported no unhealthy alcohol use. Readiness was not associated with being risk-free at follow-up, but high importance (OR 2.94; 1.15, 7.50) and high confidence (OR 2.88; 1.46, 5.68) were. Among the 255 smokers at baseline, mean readiness, importance and confidence to change smoking scores were 4.6 (2.6), 5.3 (2.6) and 5.9 (2.7), respectively. At follow-up, 13% (33) reported no longer smoking. Neither readiness nor importance was

  7. Contrasting Diversity Values: Statistical Inferences Based on Overlapping Confidence Intervals

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacGregor-Fors, Ian; Payton, Mark E.

    2013-01-01

    Ecologists often contrast diversity (species richness and abundances) using tests for comparing means or indices. However, many popular software applications do not support performing standard inferential statistics for estimates of species richness and/or density. In this study we simulated the behavior of asymmetric log-normal confidence intervals and determined an interval level that mimics statistical tests with P(α) = 0.05 when confidence intervals from two distributions do not overlap. Our results show that 84% confidence intervals robustly mimic 0.05 statistical tests for asymmetric confidence intervals, as has been demonstrated for symmetric ones in the past. Finally, we provide detailed user-guides for calculating 84% confidence intervals in two of the most robust and highly-used freeware related to diversity measurements for wildlife (i.e., EstimateS, Distance). PMID:23437239

  8. Is consumer confidence an indicator of JSE performance?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamini Solanki

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available While most studies examine the impact of business confidence on market performance, we instead focus on the consumer because consumer spending habits are a natural extension of trading activity on the equity market. This particular study examines investor sentiment as measured by the Consumer Confidence Index in South Africa and its effect on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE. We employ Granger causality tests to investigate the relationship across time between the Consumer Confidence Index and market performance. The results show weak evidence of a contemporaneous relationship; however, significant evidence of a Granger caused relationship is apparent. Further, changes in investor sentiment Granger-cause changes in the two indices used, generally with a lag of 9 and 12 months, but not vice versa. Thus, we find that Consumer Confidence leads JSE performance during our sample period. Our research provides evidence contradicting the common perception of consumer confidence lagging market performance, particularly in the South African context.

  9. Development of a core confidence-higher order construct.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stajkovic, Alexander D

    2006-11-01

    The author develops core confidence as a higher order construct and suggests that a core confidence-higher order construct--not addressed by extant work motivation theories--is helpful in better understanding employee motivation in today's rapidly changing organizations. Drawing from psychology (social, clinical, and developmental) and social anthropology, the author develops propositions regarding the relationships between core confidence and performance, attitudes, and subjective well-being. The core confidence-higher order construct is proposed to be manifested by hope, self-efficacy, optimism, and resilience. The author reasons that these four variables share a common confidence core (a higher order construct) and may be considered as its manifestations. Suggestions for future research and implications of the work are discussed.

  10. A minimal ingroup advantage in emotion identification confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Steven G; Wilson, John Paul

    2016-12-28

    Emotion expressions convey valuable information about others' internal states and likely behaviours. Accurately identifying expressions is critical for social interactions, but so is perceiver confidence when decoding expressions. Even if a perceiver correctly labels an expression, uncertainty may impair appropriate behavioural responses and create uncomfortable interactions. Past research has found that perceivers report greater confidence when identifying emotions displayed by cultural ingroup members, an effect attributed to greater perceptual skill and familiarity with own-culture than other-culture faces. However, the current research presents novel evidence for an ingroup advantage in emotion decoding confidence across arbitrary group boundaries that hold culture constant. In two experiments using different stimulus sets participants not only labeled minimal ingroup expressions more accurately, but did so with greater confidence. These results offer novel evidence that ingroup advantages in emotion decoding confidence stem partly from social-cognitive processes.

  11. Can nursing students' confidence levels increase with repeated simulation activities?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummings, Cynthia L; Connelly, Linda K

    2016-01-01

    In 2014, nursing faculty conducted a study with undergraduate nursing students on their satisfaction, confidence, and educational practice levels, as it related to simulation activities throughout the curriculum. The study was a voluntary survey conducted on junior and senior year nursing students. It consisted of 30 items based on the Student Satisfaction and Self-Confidence in Learning and the Educational Practices Questionnaire (Jeffries, 2012). Mean averages were obtained for each of the 30 items from both groups and were compared using T scores for unpaired means. The results showed that 8 of the items had a 95% confidence level and when combined the items were significant for p confidence and active learning. Based on these findings, it can be assumed that repeated simulation experiences can lead to an increase in student confidence and active learning.

  12. Confidence in performing normal vaginal delivery in the obstetrics clerkship: a randomized trial of two simulators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabourin, Jeanelle N; Van Thournout, Rhonda; Jain, Venu; Demianczuk, Nestor; Flood, Cathy

    2014-07-01

    Objectif : Comparer la confiance des étudiants de médecine en stage clinique, pour ce qui est de l’exécution d’une simulation d’accouchement vaginal normal (AVN), à la suite de leur participation à une session de formation en simulation au moyen de deux modèles différents. Méthodes : Des étudiants de médecine ont été affectés, au hasard, à une session de simulation d’AVN faisant appel à un mannequin obstétrical ou à une session de simulation faisant appel à un modèle de bassin simulant l’accouchement. Des questionnaires ont été utilisés pour évaluer la confiance et la simulation avant et immédiatement après la session, ainsi qu’au cours de la dernière journée de la rotation en obstétrique. Résultats : Cent dix étudiants ont été affectés au hasard à l’un ou l’autre des groupes de simulation. Au début du stage clinique, les deux groupes présentaient des niveaux de confiance et d’exposition à la pratique obstétricale semblables. Seulement 15 étudiants (13,9 %) étaient d’avis qu’ils étaient prêts à tenter un AVN de façon indépendante ou sous une supervision minimale. Cette proportion a connu une hausse considérable en passant à 43 étudiants (39,4 %) immédiatement après la session de simulation. À la fin du stage clinique, 79 des 81 étudiants répondants (97,5 %) étaient confiants de pouvoir tenter un AVN de façon indépendante ou sous une supervision minimale. Aucune différence significative n’a été constatée entre les groupes de simulation à quelque moment que ce soit. Les sessions ont été évaluées comme étant tout aussi utiles et réalistes les unes que les autres; cette constatation est demeurée la même à la fin du stage clinique. Conclusion : La formation faisant appel à la simulation d’un AVN au moyen d’un mannequin obstétrical ou d’un modèle de bassin simulant l’accouchement offre aux étudiants en stage clinique une expérience positive et accroît immédiatement leur confiance. Une telle formation devrait être mise en œuvre tôt au cours de la rotation, puisqu’il semble que l’expérience vécue au cours du stage clinique joue également un rôle important pour ce qui est de la confiance des étudiants. Peu importe la chronologie de la simulation, les étudiants soutiennent que ce type d’apprentissage leur est utile. Une formation efficace en simulation peut facilement être intégrée au stage clinique.

  13. Simultaneous confidence bands for log-logistic regression with applications in risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerns, Lucy X

    2017-05-01

    In risk assessment, it is often desired to make inferences on the low dose levels at which a specific benchmark risk is attained. Applications of simultaneous hyperbolic confidence bands for low-dose risk estimation with quantal data under different dose-response models (multistage, Abbott-adjusted Weibull, and Abbott-adjusted log-logistic models) have appeared in the literature. The use of simultaneous three-segment bands under the multistage model has also been proposed recently. In this article, we present explicit formulas for constructing asymptotic one-sided simultaneous hyperbolic and three-segment bands for the simple log-logistic regression model. We use the simultaneous construction to estimate upper hyperbolic and three-segment confidence bands on extra risk and to obtain lower limits on the benchmark dose by inverting the upper bands on risk under the Abbott-adjusted log-logistic model. Monte Carlo simulations evaluate the characteristics of the simultaneous limits. An example is given to illustrate the use of the proposed methods and to compare the two types of simultaneous limits at very low dose levels. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  14. Random duality

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GUO TieXin; CHEN XinXiang

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide a random duality theory for the further development of the theory of random conjugate spaces for random normed modules.First,the complicated stratification structure of a module over the algebra L(μ,K) frequently makes our investigations into random duality theory considerably different from the corresponding ones into classical duality theory,thus in this paper we have to first begin in overcoming several substantial obstacles to the study of stratification structure on random locally convex modules.Then,we give the representation theorem of weakly continuous canonical module homomorphisms,the theorem of existence of random Mackey structure,and the random bipolar theorem with respect to a regular random duality pair together with some important random compatible invariants.

  15. Random duality

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide a random duality theory for the further development of the theory of random conjugate spaces for random normed modules. First, the complicated stratification structure of a module over the algebra L(μ, K) frequently makes our investigations into random duality theory considerably difierent from the corresponding ones into classical duality theory, thus in this paper we have to first begin in overcoming several substantial obstacles to the study of stratification structure on random locally convex modules. Then, we give the representation theorem of weakly continuous canonical module homomorphisms, the theorem of existence of random Mackey structure, and the random bipolar theorem with respect to a regular random duality pair together with some important random compatible invariants.

  16. What Are Confidence Judgments Made of? Students' Explanations for Their Confidence Ratings and What that Means for Calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinsmore, Daniel L.; Parkinson, Meghan M.

    2013-01-01

    Although calibration has been widely studied, questions remain about how best to capture confidence ratings, how to calculate continuous variable calibration indices, and on what exactly students base their reported confidence ratings. Undergraduates in a research methods class completed a prior knowledge assessment, two sets of readings and…

  17. What Are Confidence Judgments Made of? Students' Explanations for Their Confidence Ratings and What that Means for Calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinsmore, Daniel L.; Parkinson, Meghan M.

    2013-01-01

    Although calibration has been widely studied, questions remain about how best to capture confidence ratings, how to calculate continuous variable calibration indices, and on what exactly students base their reported confidence ratings. Undergraduates in a research methods class completed a prior knowledge assessment, two sets of readings and…

  18. Parents' obesity-related behavior and confidence to support behavioral change in their obese child: data from the STAR study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arsenault, Lisa N; Xu, Kathleen; Taveras, Elsie M; Hacker, Karen A

    2014-01-01

    Successful childhood obesity interventions frequently focus on behavioral modification and involve parents or family members. Parental confidence in supporting behavior change may be an element of successful family-based prevention efforts. We aimed to determine whether parents' own obesity-related behaviors were related to their confidence in supporting their child's achievement of obesity-related behavioral goals. Cross-sectional analyses of data collected at baseline of a randomized control trial testing a treatment intervention for obese children (n = 787) in primary care settings (n = 14). Five obesity-related behaviors (physical activity, screen time, sugar-sweetened beverage, sleep duration, fast food) were self-reported by parents for themselves and their child. Behaviors were dichotomized on the basis of achievement of behavioral goals. Five confidence questions asked how confident the parent was in helping their child achieve each goal. Logistic regression modeling high confidence was conducted with goal achievement and demographics as independent variables. Parents achieving physical activity or sleep duration goals were significantly more likely to be highly confident in supporting their child's achievement of those goals (physical activity, odds ratio 1.76; 95% confidence interval 1.19-2.60; sleep, odds ratio 1.74; 95% confidence interval 1.09-2.79) independent of sociodemographic variables and child's current behavior. Parental achievements of TV watching and fast food goals were also associated with confidence, but significance was attenuated after child's behavior was included in models. Parents' own obesity-related behaviors are factors that may affect their confidence to support their child's behavior change. Providers seeking to prevent childhood obesity should address parent/family behaviors as part of their obesity prevention strategies. Copyright © 2014 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Functional Mobility Performance and Balance Confidence in Older Adults after Sensorimotor Adaptation Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buccello-Stout, Regina R.; Cromwell, Ronita L.; Bloomberg, Jacob J.; Weaver, G. D.

    2010-01-01

    Research indicates a main contributor of injury in older adults is from falling. The decline in sensory systems limits information needed to successfully maneuver through the environment. The objective of this study was to determine if prolonged exposure to the realignment of perceptual-motor systems increases adaptability of balance, and if balance confidence improves after training. A total of 16 older adults between ages 65-85 were randomized to a control group (walking on a treadmill while viewing a static visual scene) and an experimental group (walking on a treadmill while viewing a rotating visual scene). Prior to visual exposure, participants completed six trials of walking through a soft foamed obstacle course. Participants came in twice a week for 4 weeks to complete training of walking on a treadmill and viewing the visual scene for 20 minutes each session. Participants completed the obstacle course after training and four weeks later. Average time, penalty, and Activity Balance Confidence Scale scores were computed for both groups across testing times. The older adults who trained, significantly improved their time through the obstacle course F (2, 28) = 9.41, p train. There was no difference in balance confidence scores between groups across testing times F (2, 28) = 0.503, p > 0.05. Although the training group improved mobility through the obstacle course, there were no differences between the groups in balance confidence.

  20. Scatter factor confidence interval estimate of least square maximum entropy quantile function for small samples

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wu Fuxian; Wen Weidong

    2016-01-01

    Classic maximum entropy quantile function method (CMEQFM) based on the probabil-ity weighted moments (PWMs) can accurately estimate the quantile function of random variable on small samples, but inaccurately on the very small samples. To overcome this weakness, least square maximum entropy quantile function method (LSMEQFM) and that with constraint condition (LSMEQFMCC) are proposed. To improve the confidence level of quantile function estimation, scatter factor method is combined with maximum entropy method to estimate the confidence inter-val of quantile function. From the comparisons of these methods about two common probability distributions and one engineering application, it is showed that CMEQFM can estimate the quan-tile function accurately on the small samples but inaccurately on the very small samples (10 sam-ples); LSMEQFM and LSMEQFMCC can be successfully applied to the very small samples;with consideration of the constraint condition on quantile function, LSMEQFMCC is more stable and computationally accurate than LSMEQFM; scatter factor confidence interval estimation method based on LSMEQFM or LSMEQFMCC has good estimation accuracy on the confidence interval of quantile function, and that based on LSMEQFMCC is the most stable and accurate method on the very small samples (10 samples).

  1. The Distribution of the Product Explains Normal Theory Mediation Confidence Interval Estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kisbu-Sakarya, Yasemin; MacKinnon, David P; Miočević, Milica

    2014-05-01

    The distribution of the product has several useful applications. One of these applications is its use to form confidence intervals for the indirect effect as the product of 2 regression coefficients. The purpose of this article is to investigate how the moments of the distribution of the product explain normal theory mediation confidence interval coverage and imbalance. Values of the critical ratio for each random variable are used to demonstrate how the moments of the distribution of the product change across values of the critical ratio observed in research studies. Results of the simulation study showed that as skewness in absolute value increases, coverage decreases. And as skewness in absolute value and kurtosis increases, imbalance increases. The difference between testing the significance of the indirect effect using the normal theory versus the asymmetric distribution of the product is further illustrated with a real data example. This article is the first study to show the direct link between the distribution of the product and indirect effect confidence intervals and clarifies the results of previous simulation studies by showing why normal theory confidence intervals for indirect effects are often less accurate than those obtained from the asymmetric distribution of the product or from resampling methods.

  2. Effect of simulation on knowledge of advanced cardiac life support, knowledge retention, and confidence of nursing students in Jordan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tawalbeh, Loai I; Tubaishat, Ahmad

    2014-01-01

    This study examined the effect of simulation on nursing students' knowledge of advanced cardiac life support (ACLS), knowledge retention, and confidence in applying ACLS skills. An experimental, randomized controlled (pretest-posttest) design was used. The experimental group (n = 40) attended an ACLS simulation scenario, a 4-hour PowerPoint presentation, and demonstration on a static manikin, whereas the control group (n = 42) attended the PowerPoint presentation and a demonstration only. A paired t test indicated that posttest mean knowledge of ACLS and confidence was higher in both groups. The experimental group showed higher knowledge of ACLS and higher confidence in applying ACLS, compared with the control group. Traditional training involving PowerPoint presentation and demonstration on a static manikin is an effective teaching strategy; however, simulation is significantly more effective than traditional training in helping to improve nursing students' knowledge acquisition, knowledge retention, and confidence about ACLS.

  3. Disconnections Between Teacher Expectations and Student Confidence in Bioethics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanegan, Nikki L.; Price, Laura; Peterson, Jeremy

    2008-09-01

    This study examines how student practice of scientific argumentation using socioscientific bioethics issues affects both teacher expectations of students’ general performance and student confidence in their own work. When teachers use bioethical issues in the classroom students can gain not only biology content knowledge but also important decision-making skills. Learning bioethics through scientific argumentation gives students opportunities to express their ideas, formulate educated opinions and value others’ viewpoints. Research has shown that science teachers’ expectations of student success and knowledge directly influence student achievement and confidence levels. Our study analyzes pre-course and post-course surveys completed by students enrolled in a university level bioethics course ( n = 111) and by faculty in the College of Biology and Agriculture faculty ( n = 34) based on their perceptions of student confidence. Additionally, student data were collected from classroom observations and interviews. Data analysis showed a disconnect between faculty and students perceptions of confidence for both knowledge and the use of science argumentation. Student reports of their confidence levels regarding various bioethical issues were higher than faculty reports. A further disconnect showed up between students’ preferred learning styles and the general faculty’s common teaching methods; students learned more by practicing scientific argumentation than listening to traditional lectures. Students who completed a bioethics course that included practice in scientific argumentation, significantly increased their confidence levels. This study suggests that professors’ expectations and teaching styles influence student confidence levels in both knowledge and scientific argumentation.

  4. Sex differences in confidence influence patterns of conformity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, Catharine P; Brown, Gillian R; Morgan, Thomas J H; Laland, Kevin N

    2016-11-11

    Lack of confidence in one's own ability can increase the likelihood of relying on social information. Sex differences in confidence have been extensively investigated in cognitive tasks, but implications for conformity have not been directly tested. Here, we tested the hypothesis that, in a task that shows sex differences in confidence, an indirect effect of sex on social information use will also be evident. Participants (N = 168) were administered a mental rotation (MR) task or a letter transformation (LT) task. After providing an answer, participants reported their confidence before seeing the responses of demonstrators and being allowed to change their initial answer. In the MR, but not the LT, task, women showed lower levels of confidence than men, and confidence mediated an indirect effect of sex on the likelihood of switching answers. These results provide novel, experimental evidence that confidence is a general explanatory mechanism underpinning susceptibility to social influences. Our results have implications for the interpretation of the wider literature on sex differences in conformity.

  5. Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Syed Irfan-Ur; Saeian, Kia

    2016-04-01

    In the intensive care unit, vigilance is needed to manage nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding. A focused history and physical examination must be completed to identify inciting factors and the need for hemodynamic stabilization. Although not universally used, risk stratification tools such as the Blatchford and Rockall scores can facilitate triage and management. Urgent evaluation for nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeds requires prompt respiratory assessment, and identification of hemodynamic instability with fluid resuscitation and blood transfusions if necessary. Future studies are needed to evaluate the indication, safety, and efficacy of emerging endoscopic techniques. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Upper Eyelid Reconstruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espinoza, Gabriela Mabel; Prost, Angela Michelle

    2016-05-01

    Reconstruction of the upper eyelid is complicated because the eyelid must retain mobility, flexibility, function, and a suitable mucosal surface over the delicate cornea. Defects of the upper eyelid may be due to congenital defects or traumatic injury or follow oncologic resection. This article focuses on reconstruction due to loss of tissue. Multiple surgeries may be needed to reach the desired results, addressing loss of tissue and then loss of function. Each defect is unique and the laxity and availability of surrounding tissue vary. Knowing the most common techniques for repair assists surgeons in the multifaceted planning that takes place.

  7. Assured Human-Autonomy Interaction through Machine Self-Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aitken, Matthew

    Autonomous systems employ many layers of approximations in order to operate in increasingly uncertain and unstructured environments. The complexity of these systems makes it hard for a user to understand the systems capabilities, especially if the user is not an expert. However, if autonomous systems are to be used efficiently, their users must trust them appropriately. This purpose of this work is to implement and assess an 'assurance' that an autonomous system can provide to the user to elicit appropriate trust. Specifically, the autonomous system's perception of its own capabilities is reported to the user as the self-confidence assurance. The self-confidence assurance should allow the user to more quickly and accurately assess the autonomous system's capabilities, generating appropriate trust in the autonomous system. First, this research defines self-confidence and discusses what the self-confidence assurance is attempting to communicate to the user. Then it provides a framework for computing the autonomous system's self-confidence as a function of self-confidence factors which correspond to individual elements in the autonomous system's process. In order to explore this idea, self-confidence is implemented on an autonomous system that uses a mixed observability Markov decision process model to solve a pursuit-evasion problem on a road network. The implementation of a factor assessing the goodness of the autonomy's expected performance is focused on in particular. This work highlights some of the issues and considerations in the design of appropriate metrics for the self-confidence factors, and provides the basis for future research for computing self-confidence in autonomous systems.

  8. Food skills confidence and household gatekeepers' dietary practices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burton, Melissa; Reid, Mike; Worsley, Anthony; Mavondo, Felix

    2017-01-01

    Household food gatekeepers have the potential to influence the food attitudes and behaviours of family members, as they are mainly responsible for food-related tasks in the home. The aim of this study was to determine the role of gatekeepers' confidence in food-related skills and nutrition knowledge on food practices in the home. An online survey was completed by 1059 Australian dietary gatekeepers selected from the Global Market Insite (GMI) research database. Participants responded to questions about food acquisition and preparation behaviours, the home eating environment, perceptions and attitudes towards food, and demographics. Two-step cluster analysis was used to identify groups based on confidence regarding food skills and nutrition knowledge. Chi-square tests and one-way ANOVAs were used to compare the groups on the dependent variables. Three groups were identified: low confidence, moderate confidence and high confidence. Gatekeepers in the highest confidence group were significantly more likely to report lower body mass index (BMI), and indicate higher importance of fresh food products, vegetable prominence in meals, product information use, meal planning, perceived behavioural control and overall diet satisfaction. Gatekeepers in the lowest confidence group were significantly more likely to indicate more perceived barriers to healthy eating, report more time constraints and more impulse purchasing practices, and higher convenience ingredient use. Other smaller associations were also found. Household food gatekeepers with high food skills confidence were more likely to engage in several healthy food practices, while those with low food skills confidence were more likely to engage in unhealthy food practices. Food education strategies aimed at building food-skills and nutrition knowledge will enable current and future gatekeepers to make healthier food decisions for themselves and for their families. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Extended-Release Guaifenesin/Pseudoephedrine Hydrochloride for Symptom Relief in Support of a Wait-and-See Approach for the Treatment of Acute Upper Respiratory Tract Infections: A Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Septimus, Edward J; Albrecht, Helmut H; Solomon, Gail; Shea, Tim; Guenin, Eric P

    2017-01-01

    Despite the well-known fact that antibiotics (AB) are not effective against viruses, many patients ask for - and all too often doctors provide - AB for treating URTIs. Over-prescribing of AB is one of the key causes for the development of bacterial resistance, which the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) calls "one of the world's most pressing public health problems". In addition to the CDC initiated "Get Smart About Antibiotics" campaign, focused on educating doctors the public about the importance of appropriate AB use, other programs tackling this problem include the development of new treatment paradigms. Data published at the Oregon Health & Science University demonstrated that a 'wait-and-see' approach, without an AB prescription for the treatment of acute childhood ear infections, was as quick, safe, and effective in resolving the infections as an AB prescription (Spiro DM, Tay KY, Arnold DH, Dziura JD, Baker MD, Shapiro ED. Wait-and-See Prescription for the Treatment of Acute Otitis Media. JAMA 2006; 296:1235-1241). To try and reduce inappropriate prescribing practices, a wait and see or delayed approach requires patients to return for a prescription if their symptoms persist or worsen. The aim of this study was to determine whether treatment with Mucinex D (Reckitt Benckiser LLC, Parsippany, New Jersey) lowers the use of antibiotics in the treatment of URTIs when compared with placebo. Patients aged 18 to 75 years with symptoms of acute URTIs were randomized to 1200 mg guaifenesin/120 mg pseudoephedrine hydrochloride extended-release, bilayer tablets or matching placebo for 7 consecutive days. Eligible patients met physician's criteria for antibiotic therapy but were considered suitable for a wait and see approach (withholding antibiotics for ≥48 hours). Patients recorded symptom ratings via an interactive voice response system. One thousand one hundred eighty-nine patients enrolled; data are presented for the modified intent

  10. Risk factors and prevention of upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage after a coronary artery bypass grafting operation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Hongguang; Zheng, Zhe; Feng, Wei; Wang, Wei; Song, Yunhu; Lin, Ye; Hu, Shengshou

    2010-10-01

    Upper gastrointestinal (GI) hemorrhage is a serious complication of coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). The aim of this study was to retrospectively investigate the risk factors and prevention of upper GI bleeding after CABG. This study followed 6316 coronary patients who underwent CABG from 1998 to 2005. The perioperative parameters were recorded. Data from patients who experienced major gastrointestinal complications were analyzed retrospectively by univariate and multivariate analyses. The rate of upper GI bleeding was 0.3%. The overall mortality for patients complicated by upper GI bleeding was 47.6%. The risk factors for upper GI bleeding were age (odds ratio [OR] = 3.18, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.73-5.87, P upper GI bleeding group and the controls (P risk factors for upper GI bleeding after CABG, and the prophylactic use of omeprazole decreased the rate of upper GI bleeding.

  11. Validation, Uncertainty, and Quantitative Reliability at Confidence (QRC)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Logan, R W; Nitta, C K

    2002-12-06

    This paper represents a summary of our methodology for Verification and Validation and Uncertainty Quantification. A graded scale methodology is presented and related to other concepts in the literature. We describe the critical nature of quantified Verification and Validation with Uncertainty Quantification at specified Confidence levels in evaluating system certification status. Only after Verification and Validation has contributed to Uncertainty Quantification at specified confidence can rational tradeoffs of various scenarios be made. Verification and Validation methods for various scenarios and issues are applied in assessments of Quantified Reliability at Confidence and we summarize briefly how this can lead to a Value Engineering methodology for investment strategy.

  12. Renal failure after upper-gastrointestinal bleeding among cirrhotic patients in Upper Egypt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makhlouf, Nahed A; Morsy, Khairy H

    2012-09-01

    Renal dysfunction is a common and serious problem in patients with advanced liver disease. The study aims to assess the incidence, risk factors and short-term prognosis of renal failure after upper-gastrointestinal bleeding among cirrhotic patients in Upper Egypt. We recruited 159 cirrhotic patients with 168 episodes of upper-gastrointestinal bleeding from Tropical Medicine and Gastroenterology Department, Assiut University Hospital. For all participants, the following were conducted: clinical evaluation, abdominal ultrasonography (US) examination, laboratory investigations and upper endoscopy. Risk factors of renal failure were identified using univariate, then multivariate analysis. The incidence of renal failure among bleeding episodes was 28%. Higher risk of renal failure among cirrhotic patients with upper-gastrointestinal bleeding was observed with shock (odds ratio (OR) 0.171, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.047:0.624), bacterial infection (OR 0.310, 95% CI 107:897), Child-Pugh class C (OR 2.79, 95% CI 1.018:7.62), higher serum bilirubin (OR 0.122, 95% CI 0.000:0.002), lower serum albumin (OR -0.188, 95% CI -0.288:-0.056) and raised baseline blood urea (OR 0.181, 95% CI 0.003:0.017) and serum creatinine (OR 0.533, 95% CI 0.002:0.004). Mortality among patients with renal failure was 31.9%. Renal failure is a frequent event among cirrhotic patients with upper-gastrointestinal bleeding and there are many contributing factors for its development. Mortality is relatively high among patients with renal failure in cirrhotics with upper-gastrointestinal bleeding. Copyright © 2012 Arab Journal of Gastroenterology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Middle School Science Teachers' Confidence and Pedagogical Practice of New Literacies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Hui-Yin; Wang, Shiang-Kwei; Runco, Lisa

    2013-06-01

    Due to the rapid advancements of information and communication technologies (ICTs), educational researchers argue that multimodal and new literacies should become common practices in schools. As new ICTs emerge and evolve, students need the new literacies skills and practices to successfully participate fully in the civic life of a global community. Are teachers prepared to integrate ICTs in the classroom to develop students' new literacies skills? The purpose of this study is to suggest a new literacies framework that guides ICTs integration and supports scientific inquiry, as well as investigate middle school teachers' confidence to practice new literacies in science classrooms. The study adopted mixed-methodology design, surveyed 32 middle school science teachers' ICTs and new literacies skills, and randomly observed 15 teachers' new literacies practices in the classrooms. The results revealed that even though teachers have high confidence in using ICTs, the meaningful technology integration and new literacies practices were scarcely observed in their classroom practices.

  14. Postoperative upper airway problems

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    QuickSilver

    2003-06-09

    Jun 9, 2003 ... REVIEW ARTICLE. Southern African Journal of Anaesthesia & Analgesia - May 2003. 12. Postoperative upper airway problems way. A number of factors, some avoidable, influence the incidence ... debilitating pain, inability to swallow and temporary voice changes, and are a ..... decrease airway resistance.

  15. Confidence Measurement in the Light of Signal Detection Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sébastien eMassoni

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available We compare three alternative methods for eliciting retrospective confidence in the context of a simple perceptual task: the Simple Confidence Rating (a direct report on a numerical scale, the Quadratic Scoring Rule (a post-wagering procedure and the Matching Probability (a generalization of the no-loss gambling method. We systematically compare the results obtained with these three rules to the theoretical confidence levels that can be inferred from performance in the perceptual task using Signal Detection Theory. We find that the Matching Probability provides better results in that respect. We conclude that Matching Probability is particularly well suited for studies of confidence that use Signal Detection Theory as a theoretical framework.

  16. CERN confident of LHC start-up in 2007

    CERN Multimedia

    2007-01-01

    "Delegates attending the 140th meeting of CERN Council heard a confident report from the Laboratory about the scheduled start-up of the world's highest energy particle accelerator, the Large Hadron Collier (LHC), in 2007." (1 page)

  17. Cultural Competence Knowledge and Confidence After Classroom Activities

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Jagannath Mohan Muzumdar; Monica Holiday-Goodman; Curtis Black; Mary Powers

    2010-01-01

      To determine change in cultural competency knowledge and perceived confidence of second-year pharmacy students to deliver culturally competent care after completing a required cultural competency curriculum...

  18. Confidence and the stock market: an agent-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertella, Mario A; Pires, Felipe R; Feng, Ling; Stanley, Harry Eugene

    2014-01-01

    Using a behavioral finance approach we study the impact of behavioral bias. We construct an artificial market consisting of fundamentalists and chartists to model the decision-making process of various agents. The agents differ in their strategies for evaluating stock prices, and exhibit differing memory lengths and confidence levels. When we increase the heterogeneity of the strategies used by the agents, in particular the memory lengths, we observe excess volatility and kurtosis, in agreement with real market fluctuations--indicating that agents in real-world financial markets exhibit widely differing memory lengths. We incorporate the behavioral traits of adaptive confidence and observe a positive correlation between average confidence and return rate, indicating that market sentiment is an important driver in price fluctuations. The introduction of market confidence increases price volatility, reflecting the negative effect of irrationality in market behavior.

  19. Confidence and the stock market: an agent-based approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mario A Bertella

    Full Text Available Using a behavioral finance approach we study the impact of behavioral bias. We construct an artificial market consisting of fundamentalists and chartists to model the decision-making process of various agents. The agents differ in their strategies for evaluating stock prices, and exhibit differing memory lengths and confidence levels. When we increase the heterogeneity of the strategies used by the agents, in particular the memory lengths, we observe excess volatility and kurtosis, in agreement with real market fluctuations--indicating that agents in real-world financial markets exhibit widely differing memory lengths. We incorporate the behavioral traits of adaptive confidence and observe a positive correlation between average confidence and return rate, indicating that market sentiment is an important driver in price fluctuations. The introduction of market confidence increases price volatility, reflecting the negative effect of irrationality in market behavior.

  20. Rasch modeling of accuracy and confidence measures from cognitive tests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paek, Insu; Lee, Jihyun; Stankov, Lazar; Wilson, Mark

    2013-01-01

    The use of IRT models has not been rigorously applied in studies of the relationship between test-takers' confidence and accuracy. This study applied the Rasch measurement models to investigate the relationship between test-takers' confidence and accuracy on English proficiency tests, proposing potentially useful measures of under or overconfidence. The Rasch approach provided the scaffolding to formulate indices that can assess the discrepancy between confidence and accuracy at the item or total test level, as well as at particular ability levels locally. In addition, a "disattenuated" measure of association between accuracy and confidence, which takes measurement error into account, was obtained through a multidimensional Rasch modeling of the two constructs where the latent variance-covariance structure is directly estimated from the data. The results indicate that the participants tend to show overconfidence bias in their own cognitive abilities.

  1. Supervised and Unsupervised Speaker Adaptation Using Confidence Measure

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIUJia; LIHusheng; LIUJing; LIURunsheng

    2003-01-01

    The speaker adaptation is an effective means of improving the performance of a speech recognition system,and it can be divided into supervised or unsupervised speaker adaptation.In this paper a kind of confidence measure based on the word lattice structure is proposed and is used for the supervised and unsupervised speaker adaptation.The reliability of the recognition results can be evaluated by the confidence measure,and the uncertain parts in the recognition results can be removed or be given smaller weights in the speaker adaptation process.The experiments show that the confidence can effectively eliminate the suspicious speech and improve the performance of the supervised and unsupervised adaptation considerably.The performance difference between the supervised and unsupervised adaptation is reduced by using the confidence measure based on the word lattice structure.

  2. Confidence assessment. Site-descriptive modelling SDM-Site Laxemar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2008-12-15

    The objective of this report is to assess the confidence that can be placed in the Laxemar site descriptive model, based on the information available at the conclusion of the surface-based investigations (SDM-Site Laxemar). In this exploration, an overriding question is whether remaining uncertainties are significant for repository engineering design or long-term safety assessment and could successfully be further reduced by more surface-based investigations or more usefully by explorations underground made during construction of the repository. Procedures for this assessment have been progressively refined during the course of the site descriptive modelling, and applied to all previous versions of the Forsmark and Laxemar site descriptive models. They include assessment of whether all relevant data have been considered and understood, identification of the main uncertainties and their causes, possible alternative models and their handling, and consistency between disciplines. The assessment then forms the basis for an overall confidence statement. The confidence in the Laxemar site descriptive model, based on the data available at the conclusion of the surface based site investigations, has been assessed by exploring: - Confidence in the site characterization data base, - remaining issues and their handling, - handling of alternatives, - consistency between disciplines and - main reasons for confidence and lack of confidence in the model. Generally, the site investigation database is of high quality, as assured by the quality procedures applied. It is judged that the Laxemar site descriptive model has an overall high level of confidence. Because of the relatively robust geological model that describes the site, the overall confidence in the Laxemar Site Descriptive model is judged to be high, even though details of the spatial variability remain unknown. The overall reason for this confidence is the wide spatial distribution of the data and the consistency between

  3. The 'U-turn': Business confidence in a Karoo town

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2011-08-26

    Aug 26, 2011 ... confidence is a valuable tool for measuring the prevailing economic climate ..... West Province), Kimberley Business Service Centre databases, ... Small Business Research Board (SBRB) in the United States of America (USA).

  4. Helping College Students Build up Confidence in Listening

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘鹃

    2015-01-01

    Listening is the basis of communication,so fostering students’listening ability is very important.Though improving students’listening is very difficult,to help them build up their confidence in listening is an effective way.

  5. Helping College Students Build up Confidence in Listening

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘鹃

    2015-01-01

    Listening is the basis of communication,so fostering students’ listening ability is very important.Though improving students’ listening is very difficult,to help them build up their confidence in listening is an effective way.

  6. Measurement of tag confidence in user generated contents retrieval

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sihyoung; Min, Hyun-Seok; Lee, Young Bok; Ro, Yong Man

    2009-01-01

    As online image sharing services are becoming popular, the importance of correctly annotated tags is being emphasized for precise search and retrieval. Tags created by user along with user-generated contents (UGC) are often ambiguous due to the fact that some tags are highly subjective and visually unrelated to the image. They cause unwanted results to users when image search engines rely on tags. In this paper, we propose a method of measuring tag confidence so that one can differentiate confidence tags from noisy tags. The proposed tag confidence is measured from visual semantics of the image. To verify the usefulness of the proposed method, experiments were performed with UGC database from social network sites. Experimental results showed that the image retrieval performance with confidence tags was increased.

  7. Market entry decisions: effects of absolute and relative confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolger, Fergus; Pulford, Briony D; Colman, Andrew M

    2008-01-01

    In a market entry game, the number of entrants usually approaches game-theoretic equilibrium quickly, but in real-world markets business start-ups typically exceed market capacity, resulting in chronically high failure rates and suboptimal industry profits. Excessive entry has been attributed to overconfidence arising when expected payoffs depend partly on skill. In an experimental test of this hypothesis, 96 participants played 24 rounds of a market entry game, with expected payoffs dependent partly on skill on half the rounds, after their confidence was manipulated and measured. The results provide direct support for the hypothesis that high levels of confidence are largely responsible for excessive entry, and they suggest that absolute confidence, independent of interpersonal comparison, rather than confidence about one's abilities relative to others, drives excessive entry decisions when skill is involved.

  8. Predictions Shape Confidence in Right Inferior Frontal Gyrus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherman, Maxine T; Seth, Anil K; Kanai, Ryota

    2016-10-05

    It is clear that prior expectations shape perceptual decision-making, yet their contribution to the construction of subjective decision confidence remains largely unexplored. We recorded fMRI data while participants made perceptual decisions and confidence judgments, manipulating perceptual prior expectations while controlling for potential confounds of attention. Results show that subjective confidence increases as expectations increasingly support the decision, and that this relationship is associated with BOLD activity in right inferior frontal gyrus (rIFG). Specifically, rIFG is sensitive to the discrepancy between expectation and decision (mismatch), and higher mismatch responses are associated with lower decision confidence. Connectivity analyses revealed expectancy information to be represented in bilateral orbitofrontal cortex and sensory signals to be represented in intracalcarine sulcus. Together, our results indicate that predictive information is integrated into subjective confidence in rIFG, and reveal an occipital-frontal network that constructs confidence from top-down and bottom-up signals. This interpretation was further supported by exploratory findings that the white matter density of right orbitofrontal cortex negatively predicted its respective contribution to the construction of confidence. Our findings advance our understanding of the neural basis of subjective perceptual processes by revealing an occipitofrontal functional network that integrates prior beliefs into the construction of confidence. Perceptual decision-making is typically conceived as an integration of bottom-up and top-down influences. However, perceptual decisions are accompanied by a sense of confidence. Confidence is an important facet of perceptual consciousness yet remains poorly understood. Here we implicate right inferior frontal gyrus in constructing confidence from the discrepancy between perceptual judgment and its prior probability. Furthermore, we place right

  9. Storage free confidence estimation for the TAGE branch predictor

    OpenAIRE

    Seznec A.

    2011-01-01

    For the past 15 years, it has been shown that confidence estimation of branch prediction can be used for various usages such as fetch gating or throttling for power saving or for controlling resource allocation policies in a SMT processor. In many proposals, using extra hardware and particularly storage tables for branch confidence estimators has been considered as a worthwhile silicon investment. The TAGE predictor presented in 2006 is so far considered as the state-of-the-art conditional br...

  10. A monitor for consumer confidence in the safety of food

    OpenAIRE

    Jonge, de, WJM Wim

    2008-01-01

    Despite the fact that in the developed countries food safety standards are higher than ever, food safety incidents continue to occur frequently. The accumulation of food safety incidents might affect general consumer confidence in the safety of food. Therefore, in this thesis, the concept of general consumer confidence in the safety of food is further conceptualised, and embedded within an integrative framework that incorporates both its antecedents and consequences. General consumer confiden...

  11. The Sense of Confidence during Probabilistic Learning: A Normative Account.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florent Meyniel

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Learning in a stochastic environment consists of estimating a model from a limited amount of noisy data, and is therefore inherently uncertain. However, many classical models reduce the learning process to the updating of parameter estimates and neglect the fact that learning is also frequently accompanied by a variable "feeling of knowing" or confidence. The characteristics and the origin of these subjective confidence estimates thus remain largely unknown. Here we investigate whether, during learning, humans not only infer a model of their environment, but also derive an accurate sense of confidence from their inferences. In our experiment, humans estimated the transition probabilities between two visual or auditory stimuli in a changing environment, and reported their mean estimate and their confidence in this report. To formalize the link between both kinds of estimate and assess their accuracy in comparison to a normative reference, we derive the optimal inference strategy for our task. Our results indicate that subjects accurately track the likelihood that their inferences are correct. Learning and estimating confidence in what has been learned appear to be two intimately related abilities, suggesting that they arise from a single inference process. We show that human performance matches several properties of the optimal probabilistic inference. In particular, subjective confidence is impacted by environmental uncertainty, both at the first level (uncertainty in stimulus occurrence given the inferred stochastic characteristics and at the second level (uncertainty due to unexpected changes in these stochastic characteristics. Confidence also increases appropriately with the number of observations within stable periods. Our results support the idea that humans possess a quantitative sense of confidence in their inferences about abstract non-sensory parameters of the environment. This ability cannot be reduced to simple heuristics, it seems

  12. The Sense of Confidence during Probabilistic Learning: A Normative Account

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyniel, Florent; Schlunegger, Daniel; Dehaene, Stanislas

    2015-01-01

    Learning in a stochastic environment consists of estimating a model from a limited amount of noisy data, and is therefore inherently uncertain. However, many classical models reduce the learning process to the updating of parameter estimates and neglect the fact that learning is also frequently accompanied by a variable “feeling of knowing” or confidence. The characteristics and the origin of these subjective confidence estimates thus remain largely unknown. Here we investigate whether, during learning, humans not only infer a model of their environment, but also derive an accurate sense of confidence from their inferences. In our experiment, humans estimated the transition probabilities between two visual or auditory stimuli in a changing environment, and reported their mean estimate and their confidence in this report. To formalize the link between both kinds of estimate and assess their accuracy in comparison to a normative reference, we derive the optimal inference strategy for our task. Our results indicate that subjects accurately track the likelihood that their inferences are correct. Learning and estimating confidence in what has been learned appear to be two intimately related abilities, suggesting that they arise from a single inference process. We show that human performance matches several properties of the optimal probabilistic inference. In particular, subjective confidence is impacted by environmental uncertainty, both at the first level (uncertainty in stimulus occurrence given the inferred stochastic characteristics) and at the second level (uncertainty due to unexpected changes in these stochastic characteristics). Confidence also increases appropriately with the number of observations within stable periods. Our results support the idea that humans possess a quantitative sense of confidence in their inferences about abstract non-sensory parameters of the environment. This ability cannot be reduced to simple heuristics, it seems instead a core

  13. National study of parental confidence in general practitioners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freed, Gary L; Spike, Neil; O'Hara, Jonathan; Hiscock, Harriet; Rhodes, Anthea L

    2017-09-03

    To assess a national sample of Australian parental confidence in general practitioner (GP) care for illness and injury for their children. Cross-sectional, internet-based survey of a national, representative sample of parents of children birth - 17 years in Australia was used. Purposeful recruitment was used to achieve a national, representative sample of 2100 Australian parents, reflective of demographic and geographic distribution based on census data. Parents were asked to indicate their degree of confidence in a GP to handle medical problems as well as their preference for, and use of, paediatric speciality care for their children. Fewer than half of parents (44%) reported that they were completely confident in a GP to provide general care as defined as 'can handle almost all general health issues for my child'. A slightly greater proportion of parents (56%) were completely confident in a GP to provide care for minor injuries, defined as injuries not requiring an X-ray. Greater confidence in general care was seen among parents >40 years of age and those whose GP is always bulk billed. Parental confidence in GPs is an important issue. Our findings that fewer than half of parents are completely confident in their GP to provide general care to their child may be an influencing factor on current health-care utilisation trends. The potential implications of low parental confidence in GPs are greater numbers of emergency department presentations for children with lower urgency conditions and increased referrals of children for specialty care. © 2017 Paediatrics and Child Health Division (The Royal Australasian College of Physicians).

  14. Stock market confidence and copula-based Markov models

    OpenAIRE

    Jovanovic, Mario

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a descriptive model of stock market confidence conditional on stock market uncertainty in a first-order copula-based Markov approach. By using monthly closing prices of the VIX as a stock market uncertainty proxy for the United States and the copula of Fang et al. (2000) a stable nonlinear relation between confidence and uncertainty is derived. Based on the existence of a specific dependence structure uncertainty-reducing policies by US institutions w...

  15. Representing Autonomous Systems Self-Confidence through Competency Boundaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    Representing Autonomous Systems’ Self-Confidence through Competency Boundaries Andrew R. Hutchins, M. L. Cummings Humans and Autonomy...characteristics of such interactions. This is particularly problematic when task demands approach, or exceed, the competency boundaries of assigned...Systems’ Self-Confidence through Competency Boundaries 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT

  16. Constructing Confidence Bands for the Hodrick-Prescott Filter

    OpenAIRE

    David E. Giles

    2012-01-01

    By noting that the Hodrick-Prescott filter can be expressed as the solution to a particular regression problem, we are able to show how to construct confidence bands for the filtered time-series. This procedure requires that the data are stationary. The construction of such confidence bands is illustrated using annual U.S. data for real value-added output; and monthly U.S. data for the unemployment rate.

  17. Building Up a Real Sector Business Confidence Index for Turkey

    OpenAIRE

    Ece Oral; Dilara Ece; Turknur Hamsici

    2005-01-01

    The two major aims of this study are, firstly, to receive valuable insight into the Business Tendency Survey of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey and, secondly, to construct a real sector confidence index by using the questions of the Business Tendency Survey. The most important motivation behind constructing a real sector confidence index is to provide an indicator of short-term business conditions for economic policy makers and business managers by examining business managers' view...

  18. The Stock Market and the Consumer Confidence Channel in Canada

    OpenAIRE

    Lilia Karnizova; Hashmat Khan

    2010-01-01

    When stock prices rise, so does aggregate consumer spending. A traditional explanation for this phenomenon is based on wealth effects. However, movements of the stock market may affect consumer spending indirectly, by influencing consumer confidence. A bullish stock market may make consumers feel more optimistic about the future of the aggregate economy, and hence increase their spending. This paper investigates the existence of the consumer confidence channel of asset price transmission in C...

  19. Confidence-based somatic mutation evaluation and prioritization.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Löwer

    Full Text Available Next generation sequencing (NGS has enabled high throughput discovery of somatic mutations. Detection depends on experimental design, lab platforms, parameters and analysis algorithms. However, NGS-based somatic mutation detection is prone to erroneous calls, with reported validation rates near 54% and congruence between algorithms less than 50%. Here, we developed an algorithm to assign a single statistic, a false discovery rate (FDR, to each somatic mutation identified by NGS. This FDR confidence value accurately discriminates true mutations from erroneous calls. Using sequencing data generated from triplicate exome profiling of C57BL/6 mice and B16-F10 melanoma cells, we used the existing algorithms GATK, SAMtools and SomaticSNiPer to identify somatic mutations. For each identified mutation, our algorithm assigned an FDR. We selected 139 mutations for validation, including 50 somatic mutations assigned a low FDR (high confidence and 44 mutations assigned a high FDR (low confidence. All of the high confidence somatic mutations validated (50 of 50, none of the 44 low confidence somatic mutations validated, and 15 of 45 mutations with an intermediate FDR validated. Furthermore, the assignment of a single FDR to individual mutations enables statistical comparisons of lab and computation methodologies, including ROC curves and AUC metrics. Using the HiSeq 2000, single end 50 nt reads from replicates generate the highest confidence somatic mutation call set.

  20. Overdistribution illusions: Categorical judgments produce them, confidence ratings reduce them.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brainerd, C J; Nakamura, K; Reyna, V F; Holliday, R E

    2017-01-01

    Overdistribution is a form of memory distortion in which an event is remembered as belonging to too many episodic states, states that are logically or empirically incompatible with each other. We investigated a response formatting method of suppressing 2 basic types of overdistribution, disjunction and conjunction illusions, which parallel some classic illusions in the judgment and decision making literature. In this method, subjects respond to memory probes by rating their confidence that test cues belong to specific episodic states (e.g., presented on List 1, presented on List 2), rather than by making the usual categorical judgments about those states. The central prediction, which was derived from the task calibration principle of fuzzy-trace theory, was that confidence ratings should reduce overdistribution by diminishing subjects' reliance on noncompensatory gist memories. The data of 3 experiments agreed with that prediction. In Experiment 1, there were reliable disjunction illusions with categorical judgments but not with confidence ratings. In Experiment 2, both response formats produced reliable disjunction illusions, but those for confidence ratings were much smaller than those for categorical judgments. In Experiment 3, there were reliable conjunction illusions with categorical judgments but not with confidence ratings. Apropos of recent controversies over confidence-accuracy correlations in memory, such correlations were positive for hits, negative for correct rejections, and the 2 types of correlations were of equal magnitude. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  1. Confidence bounds for nonlinear dose-response relationships.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baayen, C; Hougaard, P

    2015-11-30

    An important aim of drug trials is to characterize the dose-response relationship of a new compound. Such a relationship can often be described by a parametric (nonlinear) function that is monotone in dose. If such a model is fitted, it is useful to know the uncertainty of the fitted curve. It is well known that Wald confidence intervals are based on linear approximations and are often unsatisfactory in nonlinear models. Apart from incorrect coverage rates, they can be unreasonable in the sense that the lower confidence limit of the difference to placebo can be negative, even when an overall test shows a significant positive effect. Bootstrap confidence intervals solve many of the problems of the Wald confidence intervals but are computationally intensive and prone to undercoverage for small sample sizes. In this work, we propose a profile likelihood approach to compute confidence intervals for the dose-response curve. These confidence bounds have better coverage than Wald intervals and are more precise and generally faster than bootstrap methods. Moreover, if monotonicity is assumed, the profile likelihood approach takes this automatically into account. The approach is illustrated using a public dataset and simulations based on the Emax and sigmoid Emax models. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. Recursive confidence band construction for an unknown distribution function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiatsupaibul, Seksan; Hayter, Anthony J

    2015-01-01

    Given a sample X1,...,Xn of independent observations from an unknown continuous distribution function F, the problem of constructing a confidence band for F is considered, which is a fundamental problem in statistical inference. This confidence band provides simultaneous inferences on all quantiles and also on all of the cumulative probabilities of the distribution, and so they are among the most important inference procedures that address the issue of multiplicity. A fully nonparametric approach is taken where no assumptions are made about the distribution function F. Historical approaches to this problem, such as Kolmogorov's famous () procedure, represent some of the earliest inference methodologies that address the issue of multiplicity. This is because a confidence band at a given confidence level 1-α allows inferences on all of the quantiles of the distribution, and also on all of the cumulative probabilities, at that specified confidence level. In this paper it is shown how recursive methodologies can be employed to construct both one-sided and two-sided confidence bands of various types. The first approach operates by putting bounds on the cumulative probabilities at the data points, and a recursive integration approach is described. The second approach operates by providing bounds on certain specified quantiles of the distribution, and its implementation using recursive summations of multinomial probabilities is described. These recursive methodologies are illustrated with examples, and R code is available for their implementation.

  3. Changes in proprioception and pain in patients with neck pain after upper thoracic manipulation

    OpenAIRE

    Yang, Jinmo; Lee, Byoungkwon; Kim, Changbeom

    2015-01-01

    [Purpose] The purpose of this study was to conduct cervical stability training and upper thoracic manipulation for patients with chronic neck pain and then investigate the changes of cervical proprioception and pain. [Subjects and Methods] Subjects were 30 workers with mechanical neck pain, who were randomly divided into an upper thoracic manipulation group and a cervical stability training group. Upper thoracic manipulation after cervical stability training was conducted for the upper thorac...

  4. The Asteroid Identification Problem. II. Target Plane Confidence Boundaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milani, Andrea; Valsecchi, Giovanni B.

    1999-08-01

    The nominal orbit solution for an asteroid/comet resulting from a least squares fit to astrometric observations is surrounded by a region containing solutions equally compatible with the data, the confidence region. If the observed arc is not too short, and for an epoch close to the observations, the confidence region in the six-dimensional space of orbital elements is well approximated by an ellipsoid. This uncertainty of the orbital elements maps to a position uncertainty at close approach, which can be represented on a Modified Target Plane (MTP), a modification of the one used by Öpik. The MTP is orthogonal to the geocentric velocity at the closest approach point along the nominal orbit. In the linear approximation, the confidence ellipsoids are mapped on the MTP into concentric ellipses, computed by solving the variational equation. For an object observed at only one opposition, however, if the close approach is expected after many revolutions, the ellipses on the MTP become extremely elongated, therefore the linear approximation may fail, and the confidence boundaries on the MTP, by definition the nonlinear images of the confidence ellipsoids, may not be well approximated by the ellipses. In theory the Monte Carlo method by Muinonen and Bowell (1993, Icarus104, 255-279) can be used to compute the nonlinear confidence boundaries, but in practice the computational load is very heavy. We propose a new method to compute semilinear confidence boundaries on the MTP, based on the theory developed by Milani (1999, Icarus137, 269-292) to efficiently compute confidence boundaries for predicted observations. This method is a reasonable compromise between reliability and computational load, and can be used for real time risk assessment. These arguments can be applied to any small body approaching any planet, but in the case of a potentially hazardous object (PHO), either an asteroid or a comet whose orbit comes very close to that of the Earth, the application is most

  5. An Algorithm for Efficient Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Confidence Interval Determination in Nonlinear Estimation Problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Patrick Charles

    1985-01-01

    An algorithm for maximum likelihood (ML) estimation is developed with an efficient method for approximating the sensitivities. The algorithm was developed for airplane parameter estimation problems but is well suited for most nonlinear, multivariable, dynamic systems. The ML algorithm relies on a new optimization method referred to as a modified Newton-Raphson with estimated sensitivities (MNRES). MNRES determines sensitivities by using slope information from local surface approximations of each output variable in parameter space. The fitted surface allows sensitivity information to be updated at each iteration with a significant reduction in computational effort. MNRES determines the sensitivities with less computational effort than using either a finite-difference method or integrating the analytically determined sensitivity equations. MNRES eliminates the need to derive sensitivity equations for each new model, thus eliminating algorithm reformulation with each new model and providing flexibility to use model equations in any format that is convenient. A random search technique for determining the confidence limits of ML parameter estimates is applied to nonlinear estimation problems for airplanes. The confidence intervals obtained by the search are compared with Cramer-Rao (CR) bounds at the same confidence level. It is observed that the degree of nonlinearity in the estimation problem is an important factor in the relationship between CR bounds and the error bounds determined by the search technique. The CR bounds were found to be close to the bounds determined by the search when the degree of nonlinearity was small. Beale's measure of nonlinearity is developed in this study for airplane identification problems; it is used to empirically correct confidence levels for the parameter confidence limits. The primary utility of the measure, however, was found to be in predicting the degree of agreement between Cramer-Rao bounds and search estimates.

  6. Random Access Transport Capacity

    CERN Document Server

    Andrews, Jeffrey G; Kountouris, Marios; Haenggi, Martin

    2009-01-01

    We develop a new metric for quantifying end-to-end throughput in multihop wireless networks, which we term random access transport capacity, since the interference model presumes uncoordinated transmissions. The metric quantifies the average maximum rate of successful end-to-end transmissions, multiplied by the communication distance, and normalized by the network area. We show that a simple upper bound on this quantity is computable in closed-form in terms of key network parameters when the number of retransmissions is not restricted and the hops are assumed to be equally spaced on a line between the source and destination. We also derive the optimum number of hops and optimal per hop success probability and show that our result follows the well-known square root scaling law while providing exact expressions for the preconstants as well. Numerical results demonstrate that the upper bound is accurate for the purpose of determining the optimal hop count and success (or outage) probability.

  7. Anatomy-Specific Virtual Reality Simulation in Temporal Bone Dissection: Perceived Utility and Impact on Surgeon Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Locketz, Garrett D; Lui, Justin T; Chan, Sonny; Salisbury, Kenneth; Dort, Joseph C; Youngblood, Patricia; Blevins, Nikolas H

    2017-06-01

    Objective To evaluate the effect of anatomy-specific virtual reality (VR) surgical rehearsal on surgeon confidence and temporal bone dissection performance. Study Design Prospective pre- and poststudy of a novel virtual surgical rehearsal platform. Setting Academic otolaryngology-head and neck surgery residency training programs. Subjects and Methods Sixteen otolaryngology-head and neck surgery residents from 2 North American training institutions were recruited. Surveys were administered to assess subjects' baseline confidence in performing 12 subtasks of cortical mastoidectomy with facial recess. A cadaver temporal bone was randomly assigned to each subject. Cadaver specimens were scanned with a clinical computed tomography protocol, allowing the creation of anatomy-specific models for use in a VR surgical rehearsal platform. Subjects then rehearsed a virtual mastoidectomy on data sets derived from their specimens. Surgical confidence surveys were administered again. Subjects then dissected assigned cadaver specimens, which were blindly graded with a modified Welling scale. A final survey assessed the perceived utility of rehearsal on dissection performance. Results Of 16 subjects, 14 (87.5%) reported a significant increase in overall confidence after conducting an anatomy-specific VR rehearsal. A significant correlation existed between perceived utility of rehearsal and confidence improvement. The effect of rehearsal on confidence was dependent on trainee experience and the inherent difficulty of the surgical subtask. Postrehearsal confidence correlated strongly with graded dissection performance. Subjects rated anatomy-specific rehearsal as having a moderate to high contribution to their dissection performance. Conclusion Anatomy-specific virtual rehearsal improves surgeon confidence in performing mastoid dissection, dependent on surgeon experience and task difficulty. The subjective confidence gained through rehearsal correlates positively with subsequent

  8. Cross-cultural adaptation and validation of the Karitane Parenting Confidence Scale of maternal confidence assessment for use in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Lívia W; Bernardi, Juliana R; Matos, Salete de; Silva, Clecio H da; Goldani, Marcelo Z; Bosa, Vera L

    2017-08-23

    To transculturally adapt and validate the Karitane Parenting Confidence Scale to the Brazilian Portuguese language and culture and verify the combination of the results with the maternal sociodemographic characteristics. This is a validation and transcultural adaptation nestled in a longitudinal and observational study in Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil, assessing mother-infant pairs from different gestational and perinatal environments. The original authors authorized the translation into Brazilian Portuguese, unified version creation, back-translation, analysis by specialists, final version implementation, and acceptance. Cronbach's alpha analysis was performed. The Kruskal-Wallis test with post-hoc Dunn's test was used to compare the study groups. Socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, obtained through a questionnaire in the first 24-48h of the newborns' life, were associated with maternal results by the Brazilian version of the scale, using Spearman's correlation and Mann-Whitney's test. The sample consisted of 251 postpartum women, with the confidence maternal questionnaire being applied at 15 days postpartum. The median score of the mothers' confidence was 40.00 (37.00-43.00). The protocol obtained a Cronbach's alpha of 0.717. There were significant weak positive correlations between maternal confidence and age (p=0.013, r=0.157) and between maternal confidence and schooling (p=0.048, r=0.125). Additionally, a significant association was observed between maternal confidence and parity (p=0.030). The transcultural adaptation and validation of the confidence maternal questionnaire into Brazilian Portuguese language and culture showed good reliability for this sample. The results of its use demonstrated that maternal confidence was associated with schooling, age and parity. Copyright © 2017 Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

  9. Upper urinary tract tumors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gandrup, Karen L; Nordling, Jørgen; Balslev, Ingegerd

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Computed tomography urography (CTU) is used widely in the work-up of patients with symptoms of urinary tract lesions. Preoperative knowledge of whether a tumor is invasive or non-invasive is important for the choice of surgery. So far there are no studies about the distinction...... of invasive and non-invasive tumors in ureter and renal pelvis based on the enhancement measured with Hounsfield Units. PURPOSE: To examine the value of CTU using split-bolus technique to distinguish non-invasive from invasive urothelial carcinomas in the upper urinary tract. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Patients...... obtained at CTU could distinguish between invasive and non-invasive lesions. No patients had a CTU within the last year before the examination that resulted in surgery. CONCLUSION: A split-bolus CTU cannot distinguish between invasive and non-invasive urothelial tumors in the upper urinary tract...

  10. Does mass azithromycin distribution impact child growth and nutrition in Niger? A cluster-randomized trial.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdou Amza

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Antibiotic use on animals demonstrates improved growth regardless of whether or not there is clinical evidence of infectious disease. Antibiotics used for trachoma control may play an unintended benefit of improving child growth.In this sub-study of a larger randomized controlled trial, we assess anthropometry of pre-school children in a community-randomized trial of mass oral azithromycin distributions for trachoma in Niger. We measured height, weight, and mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC in 12 communities randomized to receive annual mass azithromycin treatment of everyone versus 12 communities randomized to receive biannual mass azithromycin treatments for children, 3 years after the initial mass treatment. We collected measurements in 1,034 children aged 6-60 months of age.We found no difference in the prevalence of wasting among children in the 12 annually treated communities that received three mass azithromycin distributions compared to the 12 biannually treated communities that received six mass azithromycin distributions (odds ratio = 0.88, 95% confidence interval = 0.53 to 1.49.We were unable to demonstrate a statistically significant difference in stunting, underweight, and low MUAC of pre-school children in communities randomized to annual mass azithromycin treatment or biannual mass azithromycin treatment. The role of antibiotics on child growth and nutrition remains unclear, but larger studies and longitudinal trials may help determine any association.

  11. A randomized, open, parallel group, multicenter trial to investigate analgesic efficacy and safety of a new transdermal fentanyl patch compared to standard opioid treatment in cancer pain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kress, Hans G; Von der Laage, Dorothea; Hoerauf, Klaus H

    2008-01-01

    trial, in which 220 patients were randomized to receive either the fentanyl patch or standard opioid treatment for 30 days. The primary efficacy variable, pain intensity (PI) on a 0-10-point numerical rating scale, was recorded once daily. The primary endpoint was the relative area under the curve of PI...... expressed as a percentage of the maximum possible PI area under the curve. Any adverse events were recorded; four tolerability endpoints, constipation, nausea, daytime drowsiness, and sleeping disturbances, were assessed daily. Noninferiority was shown; the upper 95% confidence interval limits of the mean...

  12. A randomized, open, parallel group, multicenter trial to investigate analgesic efficacy and safety of a new transdermal fentanyl patch compared to standard opioid treatment in cancer pain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kress, H.G.; Laage, D. Von der; Hoerauf, K.H.

    2008-01-01

    , in which 220 patients were randomized to receive either the fentanyl patch or standard opioid treatment for 30 days. The primary efficacy variable, pain intensity (PI) on a 0-10-point numerical rating scale, was recorded once daily. The primary endpoint was the relative area under the curve of PI expressed...... as a percentage of the maximum possible PI area under the curve. Any adverse events were recorded; four tolerability endpoints, constipation, nausea, daytime drowsiness, and sleeping disturbances, were assessed daily. Noninferiority was shown; the upper 95% confidence interval limits os the mean difference...

  13. Myxomycetes from upper Egypt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdel-Raheem, Ahmed M

    2002-01-01

    The results of the first inventory of Myxomycetes from the subtropical region Upper Egypt are reported. The substrates were wood, bark of living and dead tree and leaf litter. 20 species belonging to 17 genera of Myxomycetes were identified. Wood was the best substrate for Myxomycetes colonization. Ceratiomyxa fruticulosa, Didymiun melanospermum, Licea biforis and Lycogala epidendrum were the most common species. Brief description and classification of species are provided.

  14. The Effect Of Different Corrective Feedback Methods on the Outcome and Self Confidence of Young Athletes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tzetzis, George; Votsis, Evandros; Kourtessis, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    This experiment investigated the effects of three corrective feedback methods, using different combinations of correction, or error cues and positive feedback for learning two badminton skills with different difficulty (forehand clear - low difficulty, backhand clear - high difficulty). Outcome and self-confidence scores were used as dependent variables. The 48 participants were randomly assigned into four groups. Group A received correction cues and positive feedback. Group B received cues on errors of execution. Group C received positive feedback, correction cues and error cues. Group D was the control group. A pre, post and a retention test was conducted. A three way analysis of variance ANOVA (4 groups X 2 task difficulty X 3 measures) with repeated measures on the last factor revealed significant interactions for each depended variable. All the corrective feedback methods groups, increased their outcome scores over time for the easy skill, but only groups A and C for the difficult skill. Groups A and B had significantly better outcome scores than group C and the control group for the easy skill on the retention test. However, for the difficult skill, group C was better than groups A, B and D. The self confidence scores of groups A and C improved over time for the easy skill but not for group B and D. Again, for the difficult skill, only group C improved over time. Finally a regression analysis depicted that the improvement in performance predicted a proportion of the improvement in self confidence for both the easy and the difficult skill. It was concluded that when young athletes are taught skills of different difficulty, different type of instruction, might be more appropriate in order to improve outcome and self confidence. A more integrated approach on teaching will assist coaches or physical education teachers to be more efficient and effective. Key pointsThe type of the skill is a critical factor in determining the effectiveness of the feedback types

  15. An upper limit to polarized submillimetre emission in Arp 220

    CERN Document Server

    Seiffert, M; Scott, D; Halpern, M; Seiffert, Michael; Borys, Colin; Scott, Douglas; Halpern, Mark

    2006-01-01

    We report the results of pointed observations of the prototypical ultra-luminous infrared galaxy (ULIRG) Arp 220 at 850 microns using the polarimeter on the SCUBA instrument on the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope. We find a Bayesian 99 per cent confidence upper limit on the polarized emission for Arp 220 of 1.54 per cent, averaged over the 15 arcsec beam-size. Arp 220 can serve as a proxy for other, more distant such galaxies. This upper limit constrains the magnetic field geometry in Arp 220 and also provides evidence that polarized ULIRGs will not be a major contaminant for next-generation cosmic microwave background polarization measurements.

  16. DIMENSIONS FOR RANDOM SELF-CONFORMAL SETS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Liu Yanyan; Wu Jun

    2003-01-01

    A set is called regular if its Hausdorff dimension and upper box-counting dimension coincide.In this paper,we prove that the random self-conformal set is regular almost surely.Also we determine the dimensions for a class of random self-conformal sets.

  17. Conquering Credibility for Monetary Policy Under Sticky Confidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaylson Jair da Silveira

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available We derive a best-reply monetary policy when the confidence by price setters on the monetary authority’s commitment to price level targeting may be both incomplete and sticky. We find that complete confidence (or full credibility is not a necessary condition for the achievement of a price level target even when heterogeneity in firms’ price level expectations is endogenously time-varying and may emerge as a long-run equilibrium outcome. In fact, in the absence of exogenous perturbations to the dynamic of confidence building, it is the achievement of a price level target for long enough that, due to stickiness in the state of confidence, rather ensures the conquering of full credibility. This result has relevant implications for the conduct of monetary policy in pursuit of price stability. One implication is that setting a price level target matters more as a means to provide monetary policy with a sharper focus on price stability than as a device to conquer credibility. As regards the conquering of credibility for monetary policy, it turns out that actions speak louder than words, as the continuing achievement of price stability is what ultimately performs better as a confidence-building device.

  18. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price. PMID:27391816

  19. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

  20. Institutional Confidence in the United States: Attitudes of Secular Americans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabella Kasselstrand

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The First Amendment to the United States’ Constitution addresses freedom of religion and the separation of church and state. However, the historical influence of religion in laws, policies, and political representation have left secular individuals feeling excluded. At the same time, levels of confidence in social and political institutions in the United States are at an all-time low. This begs the question: Is there a relationship between secularity and confidence in various social and political institutions (e.g. the armed forces, churches, major companies, government, police, and political parties? This question is examined using data on the United States from the World Values Survey from 1995–2011. While controlling for a range of key demographics, the findings show a negative relationship between secularity and institutional confidence. More specifically, atheists and nonreligious individuals are less likely than those who are religious to have confidence in all six institutions. Based on previous literature and the empirical evidence presented in this study, we argue that overall lower levels of institutional confidence among secular Americans is an outcome of the exclusion of such individuals from American social life. Thus, it highlights the importance of addressing the stereotypes and prejudice that this minority group faces.