Random Scenario Generation for a Multiple Target Tracking Environment Evaluation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hussain, Dil Muhammad Akbar
2006-01-01
, which were normally crossing targets, was to test the efficiency of the track splitting algorithm for different situations. However this approach only gives a measure of performance for a specific, possibly unrealistic, scenario and it was felt appropriate to develop procedures that would enable a more...... general performance assessment. Therefore, a random target motion scenario is adopted. Its implementation in particular for testing the track splitting algorithm using Kalman filters is used and a couple of tracking performance parameters are computed to investigate such random scenarios....
Simulated Performance Evaluation of a Selective Tracker Through Random Scenario Generation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hussain, Dil Muhammad Akbar
2006-01-01
performance assessment. Therefore, a random target motion scenario is adopted. Its implementation in particular for testing the proposed selective track splitting algorithm using Kalman filters is investigated through a number of performance parameters which gives the activity profile of the tracking scenario...... The paper presents a simulation study on the performance of a target tracker using selective track splitting filter algorithm through a random scenario implemented on a digital signal processor. In a typical track splitting filter all the observation which fall inside a likelihood ellipse...... are used for update, however, in our proposed selective track splitting filter less number of observations are used for track update. Much of the previous performance work [1] has been done on specific (deterministic) scenarios. One of the reasons for considering the specific scenarios, which were...
Experimental nonlocality-based randomness generation with nonprojective measurements
Gómez, S.; Mattar, A.; Gómez, E. S.; Cavalcanti, D.; Farías, O. Jiménez; Acín, A.; Lima, G.
2018-04-01
We report on an optical setup generating more than one bit of randomness from one entangled bit (i.e., a maximally entangled state of two qubits). The amount of randomness is certified through the observation of Bell nonlocal correlations. To attain this result we implemented a high-purity entanglement source and a nonprojective three-outcome measurement. Our implementation achieves a gain of 27% of randomness as compared with the standard methods using projective measurements. Additionally, we estimate the amount of randomness certified in a one-sided device-independent scenario, through the observation of Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen steering. Our results prove that nonprojective quantum measurements allow extending the limits for nonlocality-based certified randomness generation using current technology.
A novel method for energy harvesting simulation based on scenario generation
Wang, Zhe; Li, Taoshen; Xiao, Nan; Ye, Jin; Wu, Min
2018-06-01
Energy harvesting network (EHN) is a new form of computer networks. It converts ambient energy into usable electric energy and supply the electrical energy as a primary or secondary power source to the communication devices. However, most of the EHN uses the analytical probability distribution function to describe the energy harvesting process, which cannot accurately identify the actual situation for the lack of authenticity. We propose an EHN simulation method based on scenario generation in this paper. Firstly, instead of setting a probability distribution in advance, it uses optimal scenario reduction technology to generate representative scenarios in single period based on the historical data of the harvested energy. Secondly, it uses homogeneous simulated annealing algorithm to generate optimal daily energy harvesting scenario sequences to get a more accurate simulation of the random characteristics of the energy harvesting network. Then taking the actual wind power data as an example, the accuracy and stability of the method are verified by comparing with the real data. Finally, we cite an instance to optimize the network throughput, which indicate the feasibility and effectiveness of the method we proposed from the optimal solution and data analysis in energy harvesting simulation.
RESGen: Renewable Energy Scenario Generation Platform
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Iversen, Jan Emil Banning; Pinson, Pierre
2016-01-01
studies remains. Consequently, our aim here is to propose an open-source platform for space-time probabilistic forecasting of renewable energy generation (wind and solar power). This document covers both methodological and implementation aspects, to be seen as a companion document for the open......-source scenario generation platform. It can generate predictive densities, trajectories and space-time interdependencies for renewable energy generation. The underlying model works as a post-processing of point forecasts. For illustration, two setups are considered: the case of day-ahead forecasts to be issued......Space-time scenarios of renewable power generation are increasingly used as input to decision-making in operational problems. They may also be used in planning studies to account for the inherent uncertainty in operations. Similarly using scenarios to derive chance-constraints or robust...
[Intel random number generator-based true random number generator].
Huang, Feng; Shen, Hong
2004-09-01
To establish a true random number generator on the basis of certain Intel chips. The random numbers were acquired by programming using Microsoft Visual C++ 6.0 via register reading from the random number generator (RNG) unit of an Intel 815 chipset-based computer with Intel Security Driver (ISD). We tested the generator with 500 random numbers in NIST FIPS 140-1 and X(2) R-Squared test, and the result showed that the random number it generated satisfied the demand of independence and uniform distribution. We also compared the random numbers generated by Intel RNG-based true random number generator and those from the random number table statistically, by using the same amount of 7500 random numbers in the same value domain, which showed that the SD, SE and CV of Intel RNG-based random number generator were less than those of the random number table. The result of u test of two CVs revealed no significant difference between the two methods. Intel RNG-based random number generator can produce high-quality random numbers with good independence and uniform distribution, and solves some problems with random number table in acquisition of the random numbers.
Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation
Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise
2011-01-01
Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Guo Ya'nan; Jin Dapeng; Zhao Dixin; Liu Zhen'an; Qiao Qiao; Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing
2007-01-01
Due to the randomness of radioactive decay and nuclear reaction, the signals from detectors are random in time. But normal pulse generator generates periodical pulses. To measure the performances of nuclear electronic devices under random inputs, a random generator is necessary. Types of random pulse generator are reviewed, 2 digital random pulse generators are introduced. (authors)
Forestry: Prospective Scenarios for Generating Eletricity
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Henrique Dias Blois
2017-05-01
Full Text Available Forestry generates in all production segments a lot of waste which is a potential power source and an opportunity for electricity generation by the use of this material. Therefore, this study represents the construction of future scenarios for the power generation sector from alternative and renewable sources in the region of Vale do Taquari and Alto da Serra do Botucaraí, in the Northern-Central region of the Stat of Rio Grande do Sul, aiming for the application of waste and by-products from forestry present in a intensive and tendentious way in economic activities within the region. By way of prospective scenarios, one will be able to observe which events are impactful on the viability of an environmental project for recovery of forestry waste to generate electricity in the region. Thereby, we used the method described by Grumbach (2000, a methodology that prospects scenarios from the participation of experts, who collaborated analyzing and proposing events that impact as strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats and their interrelationships. Also, it was evident the degree of influence and dependence between the events, which create a matrix of cross impacts. Moreover, possible future scenarios have been constructed and analyzed for demonstrating that the study area has potential events that could serve as alternatives to the sector. However, no ideal scenario has been identified for the next five years, a fact that is due to the large amount of adverse events in six out of the ten final events.
Hypothetical Scenario Generator for Fault-Tolerant Diagnosis
James, Mark
2007-01-01
The Hypothetical Scenario Generator for Fault-tolerant Diagnostics (HSG) is an algorithm being developed in conjunction with other components of artificial- intelligence systems for automated diagnosis and prognosis of faults in spacecraft, aircraft, and other complex engineering systems. By incorporating prognostic capabilities along with advanced diagnostic capabilities, these developments hold promise to increase the safety and affordability of the affected engineering systems by making it possible to obtain timely and accurate information on the statuses of the systems and predicting impending failures well in advance. The HSG is a specific instance of a hypothetical- scenario generator that implements an innovative approach for performing diagnostic reasoning when data are missing. The special purpose served by the HSG is to (1) look for all possible ways in which the present state of the engineering system can be mapped with respect to a given model and (2) generate a prioritized set of future possible states and the scenarios of which they are parts.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kojima, Shigeo; Onoue, Akira; Kawai, Katsunori
1998-01-01
This study intends to develop a more sophisticated tool that will advance the current event tree method used in all PSA, and to focus on non-catastrophic events, specifically a non-core melt sequence scenario not included in an ordinary PSA. In the non-catastrophic event PSA, it is necessary to consider various end states and failure combinations for the purpose of multiple scenario construction. Therefore it is anticipated that an analysis work should be reduced and automated method and tool is required. A scenario generator that can automatically handle scenario construction logic and generate the enormous size of sequences logically identified by state-of-the-art methodology was developed. To fulfill the scenario generation as a technical tool, a simulation model associated with AI technique and graphical interface, was introduced. The AI simulation model in this study was verified for the feasibility of its capability to evaluate actual systems. In this feasibility study, a spurious SI signal was selected to test the model's applicability. As a result, the basic capability of the scenario generator could be demonstrated and important scenarios were generated. The human interface with a system and its operation, as well as time dependent factors and their quantification in scenario modeling, was added utilizing human scenario generator concept. Then the feasibility of an improved scenario generator was tested for actual use. Automatic scenario generation with a certain level of credibility, was achieved by this study. (author)
High-Speed Device-Independent Quantum Random Number Generation without a Detection Loophole
Liu, Yang; Yuan, Xiao; Li, Ming-Han; Zhang, Weijun; Zhao, Qi; Zhong, Jiaqiang; Cao, Yuan; Li, Yu-Huai; Chen, Luo-Kan; Li, Hao; Peng, Tianyi; Chen, Yu-Ao; Peng, Cheng-Zhi; Shi, Sheng-Cai; Wang, Zhen; You, Lixing; Ma, Xiongfeng; Fan, Jingyun; Zhang, Qiang; Pan, Jian-Wei
2018-01-01
Quantum mechanics provides the means of generating genuine randomness that is impossible with deterministic classical processes. Remarkably, the unpredictability of randomness can be certified in a manner that is independent of implementation devices. Here, we present an experimental study of device-independent quantum random number generation based on a detection-loophole-free Bell test with entangled photons. In the randomness analysis, without the independent identical distribution assumption, we consider the worst case scenario that the adversary launches the most powerful attacks against the quantum adversary. After considering statistical fluctuations and applying an 80 Gb ×45.6 Mb Toeplitz matrix hashing, we achieve a final random bit rate of 114 bits /s , with a failure probability less than 10-5. This marks a critical step towards realistic applications in cryptography and fundamental physics tests.
Scenarios of Expansion to Electric Generation Capacity
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
José Somoza-Cabrera
2017-06-01
Full Text Available We show the building scenarios of expansion to electric generation capacity enough to supply the demand to 2050. We were using the LEAP facility (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System, to simulate dispatch of electricity at minimum cost. Finally, we show the cost-benefice analysis of the technologies availability, included externality and CO2 emission limited. However that we included the externals cost in this analysis, it results insufficient to closed gap between fossil and renewable technologies of electric generation. Nevertheless, in some opportunities the renewable options had very important participations in the minimal cost scenario of expansion.
Quantum random number generator
Pooser, Raphael C.
2016-05-10
A quantum random number generator (QRNG) and a photon generator for a QRNG are provided. The photon generator may be operated in a spontaneous mode below a lasing threshold to emit photons. Photons emitted from the photon generator may have at least one random characteristic, which may be monitored by the QRNG to generate a random number. In one embodiment, the photon generator may include a photon emitter and an amplifier coupled to the photon emitter. The amplifier may enable the photon generator to be used in the QRNG without introducing significant bias in the random number and may enable multiplexing of multiple random numbers. The amplifier may also desensitize the photon generator to fluctuations in power supplied thereto while operating in the spontaneous mode. In one embodiment, the photon emitter and amplifier may be a tapered diode amplifier.
Quantum random number generator
Soubusta, Jan; Haderka, Ondrej; Hendrych, Martin
2001-03-01
Since reflection or transmission of a quantum particle on a beamsplitter is inherently random quantum process, a device built on this principle does not suffer from drawbacks of neither pseudo-random computer generators or classical noise sources. Nevertheless, a number of physical conditions necessary for high quality random numbers generation must be satisfied. Luckily, in quantum optics realization they can be well controlled. We present an easy random number generator based on the division of weak light pulses on a beamsplitter. The randomness of the generated bit stream is supported by passing the data through series of 15 statistical test. The device generates at a rate of 109.7 kbit/s.
Electrical-Generation Scenarios for China
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kypreos, S.; Krakowski, R.A.
2002-03-01
The China Energy Technology Program (CETP) used both optimizing and simulation energy- economic-environmental (E3) models to assess tradeoffs in the electricity-generation sector for a range of fuel, transport, generation, and distribution options. The CETP is composed of a range of technical tasks or activities, including Energy Economics Modeling (EEM, optimizations), Electric Sector Simulation (ESS, simulations), Life Cycle Analyses (LCA, externalization) of energy systems, and Multi-Criteria Decision Analyses (MCDA, integration). The scope of CETP is limited to one province (Shandong), to one economic sector (electricity), and to one energy sector (electricity). This document describes the methods, approaches, limitations, sample results, and future/needed work for the EEM ( optimization-based modeling) task that supports the overall goal of CETP. An important tool used by the EEM task is based on a Linear Programming (LP) optimization model that considers 17 electricity-generation technologies utilizing 14 fuel forms (type, composition, source) in a 7-region transportation model of China's electricity demand and supply system over the period 2000-2030; Shandong is one of the seven regions modeled. The China Regional Electricity Trade Model (CRETM) is used to examine a set of energy-environment-economy E3-driven scenarios to quantify related policy implications. The development of electricity production mixes that are optimized under realistically E3 constraints is determined through regional demands for electricity that respond to exogenous assumptions on income (GDP) and electricity prices through respective time-dependent elasticities. Constraints are applied to fuel prices, transportation limits, resource availability, introduction (penetration) rates of specific technology, and (where applicable) to local, regional, and countrywide emission rates of CO{sub 2}, SO{sub 2} and NO{sub x}. Importantly, future inter- regional energy flows are optimized with
Evaluating the quality of scenarios of short-term wind power generation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pinson, P.; Girard, R.
2012-01-01
Highlights: ► Presentation of the desirable properties of wind power generation scenarios. ► Description of various evaluation frameworks (univariate, multivariate, diagnostic). ► Highlighting of the properties of current approaches to scenario generation. ► Guidelines for future evaluation/benchmark exercises. -- Abstract: Scenarios of short-term wind power generation are becoming increasingly popular as input to multistage decision-making problems e.g. multivariate stochastic optimization and stochastic programming. The quality of these scenarios is intuitively expected to substantially impact the benefits from their use in decision-making. So far however, their verification is almost always focused on their marginal distributions for each individual lead time only, thus overlooking their temporal interdependence structure. The shortcomings of such an approach are discussed. Multivariate verification tools, as well as diagnostic approaches based on event-based verification are then presented. Their application to the evaluation of various sets of scenarios of short-term wind power generation demonstrates them as valuable discrimination tools.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Coveyou, R.R.
1974-01-01
The subject of random number generation is currently controversial. Differing opinions on this subject seem to stem from implicit or explicit differences in philosophy; in particular, from differing ideas concerning the role of probability in the real world of physical processes, electronic computers, and Monte Carlo calculations. An attempt is made here to reconcile these views. The role of stochastic ideas in mathematical models is discussed. In illustration of these ideas, a mathematical model of the use of random number generators in Monte Carlo calculations is constructed. This model is used to set up criteria for the comparison and evaluation of random number generators. (U.S.)
Self-correcting random number generator
Humble, Travis S.; Pooser, Raphael C.
2016-09-06
A system and method for generating random numbers. The system may include a random number generator (RNG), such as a quantum random number generator (QRNG) configured to self-correct or adapt in order to substantially achieve randomness from the output of the RNG. By adapting, the RNG may generate a random number that may be considered random regardless of whether the random number itself is tested as such. As an example, the RNG may include components to monitor one or more characteristics of the RNG during operation, and may use the monitored characteristics as a basis for adapting, or self-correcting, to provide a random number according to one or more performance criteria.
Miszczak, Jarosław Adam
2013-01-01
The presented package for the Mathematica computing system allows the harnessing of quantum random number generators (QRNG) for investigating the statistical properties of quantum states. The described package implements a number of functions for generating random states. The new version of the package adds the ability to use the on-line quantum random number generator service and implements new functions for retrieving lists of random numbers. Thanks to the introduced improvements, the new version provides faster access to high-quality sources of random numbers and can be used in simulations requiring large amount of random data. New version program summaryProgram title: TRQS Catalogue identifier: AEKA_v2_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEKA_v2_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: Standard CPC licence, http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/licence/licence.html No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 18 134 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 2 520 49 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: Mathematica, C. Computer: Any supporting Mathematica in version 7 or higher. Operating system: Any platform supporting Mathematica; tested with GNU/Linux (32 and 64 bit). RAM: Case-dependent Supplementary material: Fig. 1 mentioned below can be downloaded. Classification: 4.15. External routines: Quantis software library (http://www.idquantique.com/support/quantis-trng.html) Catalogue identifier of previous version: AEKA_v1_0 Journal reference of previous version: Comput. Phys. Comm. 183(2012)118 Does the new version supersede the previous version?: Yes Nature of problem: Generation of random density matrices and utilization of high-quality random numbers for the purpose of computer simulation. Solution method: Use of a physical quantum random number generator and an on-line service providing access to the source of true random
Scenario tree generation and multi-asset financial optimization problems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Geyer, Alois; Hanke, Michael; Weissensteiner, Alex
2013-01-01
We compare two popular scenario tree generation methods in the context of financial optimization: moment matching and scenario reduction. Using a simple problem with a known analytic solution, moment matching-when ensuring absence of arbitrage-replicates this solution precisely. On the other hand...
How random are random numbers generated using photons?
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Solis, Aldo; Angulo Martínez, Alí M; Ramírez Alarcón, Roberto; Cruz Ramírez, Hector; U’Ren, Alfred B; Hirsch, Jorge G
2015-01-01
Randomness is fundamental in quantum theory, with many philosophical and practical implications. In this paper we discuss the concept of algorithmic randomness, which provides a quantitative method to assess the Borel normality of a given sequence of numbers, a necessary condition for it to be considered random. We use Borel normality as a tool to investigate the randomness of ten sequences of bits generated from the differences between detection times of photon pairs generated by spontaneous parametric downconversion. These sequences are shown to fulfil the randomness criteria without difficulties. As deviations from Borel normality for photon-generated random number sequences have been reported in previous work, a strategy to understand these diverging findings is outlined. (paper)
Design and evaluation of a data-driven scenario generation framework for game-based training
Luo, L.; Yin, H.; Cai, W.; Zhong, J.; Lees, M.
Generating suitable game scenarios that can cater for individual players has become an emerging challenge in procedural content generation. In this paper, we propose a data-driven scenario generation framework for game-based training. An evolutionary scenario generation process is designed with a
Digital random-number generator
Brocker, D. H.
1973-01-01
For binary digit array of N bits, use N noise sources to feed N nonlinear operators; each flip-flop in digit array is set by nonlinear operator to reflect whether amplitude of generator which feeds it is above or below mean value of generated noise. Fixed-point uniform distribution random number generation method can also be used to generate random numbers with other than uniform distribution.
Steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) scenarios
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Auvinen, A.; Jokiniemi, J.K.; Laehde, A.; Routamo, T.; Lundstroem, P.; Tuomisto, H.; Dienstbier, J.; Guentay, S.; Suckow, D.; Dehbi, A.; Slootman, M.; Herranz, L.; Peyres, V.; Polo, J.
2005-01-01
The steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) scenarios project was carried out in the EU 5th framework programme in the field of nuclear safety during years 2000-2002. The first objective of the project was to generate a comprehensive database on fission product retention in a steam generator. The second objective was to verify and develop predictive models to support accident management interventions in steam generator tube rupture sequences, which either directly lead to severe accident conditions or are induced by other sequences leading to severe accidents. The models developed for fission product retention were to be included in severe accident codes. In addition, it was shown that existing models for turbulent deposition, which is the dominating deposition mechanism in dry conditions and at high flow rates, contain large uncertainties. The results of the project are applicable to various pressurised water reactors, including vertical steam generators (western PWR) and horizontal steam generators (VVER)
A sustainable scenario for Venezuelan power generation sector in 2050 and its costs
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bautista, Santiago
2012-01-01
The present research study used the quantitative approach to analyze the present and future situation of the Venezuelan power generation sector; to achieve that, the total energy generation costs and GHG emissions of four scenarios in 2050 were estimated and compared, considering two demand groups, high and low demand. For each demand scenario, two supply matrix were considered, a generation matrix based on the existing national power generation plans and trends (these scenarios were referred as BAU) and a configuration based on the renewable energy resources available in Venezuela and without the use of either nuclear or CCS technologies, and these scenarios are referred as Sustainable Scenarios (SUS). In the first section, the present situation is presented, followed by an explanation of the applied methodology and the implemented tools. In the third and fourth sections the available recourses and the applied basic assumptions for the four of scenarios are presented and discussed, respectively, followed by the results. In this study it is shown that Venezuela has all the resources it needs to achieve sustainable development in the power generation sector. It is also proved that an energy efficiency improvement is the easiest path to reduce GHG emissions. - Highlights: ► Venezuela has enough energy resources to supply the energy require for its development. ► A sustainable scenario is posible in Venezuelan power generation sector in 2050. ► The sustainable scenario is technically possible without nuclear power or carbon capture storage technologies. ► The impact over the depleatable resources is higher under the BAU assumptions.
Random number generation and creativity.
Bains, William
2008-01-01
A previous paper suggested that humans can generate genuinely random numbers. I tested this hypothesis by repeating the experiment with a larger number of highly numerate subjects, asking them to call out a sequence of digits selected from 0 through 9. The resulting sequences were substantially non-random, with an excess of sequential pairs of numbers and a deficit of repeats of the same number, in line with previous literature. However, the previous literature suggests that humans generate random numbers with substantial conscious effort, and distractions which reduce that effort reduce the randomness of the numbers. I reduced my subjects' concentration by asking them to call out in another language, and with alcohol - neither affected the randomness of their responses. This suggests that the ability to generate random numbers is a 'basic' function of the human mind, even if those numbers are not mathematically 'random'. I hypothesise that there is a 'creativity' mechanism, while not truly random, provides novelty as part of the mind's defence against closed programming loops, and that testing for the effects seen here in people more or less familiar with numbers or with spontaneous creativity could identify more features of this process. It is possible that training to perform better at simple random generation tasks could help to increase creativity, through training people to reduce the conscious mind's suppression of the 'spontaneous', creative response to new questions.
The RANDOM computer program: A linear congruential random number generator
Miles, R. F., Jr.
1986-01-01
The RANDOM Computer Program is a FORTRAN program for generating random number sequences and testing linear congruential random number generators (LCGs). The linear congruential form of random number generator is discussed, and the selection of parameters of an LCG for a microcomputer described. This document describes the following: (1) The RANDOM Computer Program; (2) RANDOM.MOD, the computer code needed to implement an LCG in a FORTRAN program; and (3) The RANCYCLE and the ARITH Computer Programs that provide computational assistance in the selection of parameters for an LCG. The RANDOM, RANCYCLE, and ARITH Computer Programs are written in Microsoft FORTRAN for the IBM PC microcomputer and its compatibles. With only minor modifications, the RANDOM Computer Program and its LCG can be run on most micromputers or mainframe computers.
Unbiased All-Optical Random-Number Generator
Steinle, Tobias; Greiner, Johannes N.; Wrachtrup, Jörg; Giessen, Harald; Gerhardt, Ilja
2017-10-01
The generation of random bits is of enormous importance in modern information science. Cryptographic security is based on random numbers which require a physical process for their generation. This is commonly performed by hardware random-number generators. These often exhibit a number of problems, namely experimental bias, memory in the system, and other technical subtleties, which reduce the reliability in the entropy estimation. Further, the generated outcome has to be postprocessed to "iron out" such spurious effects. Here, we present a purely optical randomness generator, based on the bistable output of an optical parametric oscillator. Detector noise plays no role and postprocessing is reduced to a minimum. Upon entering the bistable regime, initially the resulting output phase depends on vacuum fluctuations. Later, the phase is rigidly locked and can be well determined versus a pulse train, which is derived from the pump laser. This delivers an ambiguity-free output, which is reliably detected and associated with a binary outcome. The resulting random bit stream resembles a perfect coin toss and passes all relevant randomness measures. The random nature of the generated binary outcome is furthermore confirmed by an analysis of resulting conditional entropies.
The MIXMAX random number generator
Savvidy, Konstantin G.
2015-11-01
In this paper, we study the randomness properties of unimodular matrix random number generators. Under well-known conditions, these discrete-time dynamical systems have the highly desirable K-mixing properties which guarantee high quality random numbers. It is found that some widely used random number generators have poor Kolmogorov entropy and consequently fail in empirical tests of randomness. These tests show that the lowest acceptable value of the Kolmogorov entropy is around 50. Next, we provide a solution to the problem of determining the maximal period of unimodular matrix generators of pseudo-random numbers. We formulate the necessary and sufficient condition to attain the maximum period and present a family of specific generators in the MIXMAX family with superior performance and excellent statistical properties. Finally, we construct three efficient algorithms for operations with the MIXMAX matrix which is a multi-dimensional generalization of the famous cat-map. First, allowing to compute the multiplication by the MIXMAX matrix with O(N) operations. Second, to recursively compute its characteristic polynomial with O(N2) operations, and third, to apply skips of large number of steps S to the sequence in O(N2 log(S)) operations.
Evaluating the quality of scenarios of short-term wind power generation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pinson, Pierre; Girard, R.
2012-01-01
Scenarios of short-term wind power generation are becoming increasingly popular as input to multi-stage decision-making problems e.g. multivariate stochastic optimization and stochastic programming. The quality of these scenarios is intuitively expected to substantially impact the benets from...... their use in decision-making. So far however, their verication is almost always focused on their marginal distributions for each individual lead time only, thus overlooking their temporal interdependence structure. The shortcomings of such an approach are discussed. Multivariate verication tools, as well...... as diagnostic approaches based on event-based verication are then presented. Their application to the evaluation of various sets of scenarios of short-term wind power generation demonstrates them as valuable discrimination tools....
Source-Independent Quantum Random Number Generation
Cao, Zhu; Zhou, Hongyi; Yuan, Xiao; Ma, Xiongfeng
2016-01-01
Quantum random number generators can provide genuine randomness by appealing to the fundamental principles of quantum mechanics. In general, a physical generator contains two parts—a randomness source and its readout. The source is essential to the quality of the resulting random numbers; hence, it needs to be carefully calibrated and modeled to achieve information-theoretical provable randomness. However, in practice, the source is a complicated physical system, such as a light source or an atomic ensemble, and any deviations in the real-life implementation from the theoretical model may affect the randomness of the output. To close this gap, we propose a source-independent scheme for quantum random number generation in which output randomness can be certified, even when the source is uncharacterized and untrusted. In our randomness analysis, we make no assumptions about the dimension of the source. For instance, multiphoton emissions are allowed in optical implementations. Our analysis takes into account the finite-key effect with the composable security definition. In the limit of large data size, the length of the input random seed is exponentially small compared to that of the output random bit. In addition, by modifying a quantum key distribution system, we experimentally demonstrate our scheme and achieve a randomness generation rate of over 5 ×103 bit /s .
Source-Independent Quantum Random Number Generation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhu Cao
2016-02-01
Full Text Available Quantum random number generators can provide genuine randomness by appealing to the fundamental principles of quantum mechanics. In general, a physical generator contains two parts—a randomness source and its readout. The source is essential to the quality of the resulting random numbers; hence, it needs to be carefully calibrated and modeled to achieve information-theoretical provable randomness. However, in practice, the source is a complicated physical system, such as a light source or an atomic ensemble, and any deviations in the real-life implementation from the theoretical model may affect the randomness of the output. To close this gap, we propose a source-independent scheme for quantum random number generation in which output randomness can be certified, even when the source is uncharacterized and untrusted. In our randomness analysis, we make no assumptions about the dimension of the source. For instance, multiphoton emissions are allowed in optical implementations. Our analysis takes into account the finite-key effect with the composable security definition. In the limit of large data size, the length of the input random seed is exponentially small compared to that of the output random bit. In addition, by modifying a quantum key distribution system, we experimentally demonstrate our scheme and achieve a randomness generation rate of over 5×10^{3} bit/s.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mathukumalli Srinivasa Rao
Full Text Available The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM of future data on daily maximum (T.max, minimum (T.min air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1. This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF -2020, Distant future (DF-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF-2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1-2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18-22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%, model (1.74% and scenario (0.74%. The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods.
Quality pseudo-random number generator
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tarasiuk, J.
1996-01-01
The pseudo-random number generator (RNG) was written to match needs of nuclear and high-energy physics computation which in some cases require very long and independent random number sequences. In this random number generator the repetition period is about 10 36 what should be sufficient for all computers in the world. In this article the test results of RNG correlation, speed and identity of computations for PC, Sun4 and VAX computer tests are presented
Probabilistic Wind Power Ramp Forecasting Based on a Scenario Generation Method
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wang, Qin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Florita, Anthony R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat K [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hodge, Brian S [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cui, Mingjian [University of Texas at Dallas; Feng, Cong [University of Texas at Dallas; Wang, Zhenke [University of Texas at Dallas; Zhang, Jie [University of Texas at Dallas
2018-02-01
Wind power ramps (WPRs) are particularly important in the management and dispatch of wind power and currently drawing the attention of balancing authorities. With the aim to reduce the impact of WPRs for power system operations, this paper develops a probabilistic ramp forecasting method based on a large number of simulated scenarios. An ensemble machine learning technique is first adopted to forecast the basic wind power forecasting scenario and calculate the historical forecasting errors. A continuous Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is used to fit the probability distribution function (PDF) of forecasting errors. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) is analytically deduced. The inverse transform method based on Monte Carlo sampling and the CDF is used to generate a massive number of forecasting error scenarios. An optimized swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract all the WPRs from the complete set of wind power forecasting scenarios. The probabilistic forecasting results of ramp duration and start-time are generated based on all scenarios. Numerical simulations on publicly available wind power data show that within a predefined tolerance level, the developed probabilistic wind power ramp forecasting method is able to predict WPRs with a high level of sharpness and accuracy.
Analysis of android random number generator
Sarıtaş, Serkan
2013-01-01
Ankara : The Department of Computer Engineering and the Graduate School of Engineering and Science of Bilkent University, 2013. Thesis (Master's) -- Bilkent University, 2013. Includes bibliographical references leaves 61-65. Randomness is a crucial resource for cryptography, and random number generators are critical building blocks of almost all cryptographic systems. Therefore, random number generation is one of the key parts of secure communication. Random number generatio...
An integrable low-cost hardware random number generator
Ranasinghe, Damith C.; Lim, Daihyun; Devadas, Srinivas; Jamali, Behnam; Zhu, Zheng; Cole, Peter H.
2005-02-01
A hardware random number generator is different from a pseudo-random number generator; a pseudo-random number generator approximates the assumed behavior of a real hardware random number generator. Simple pseudo random number generators suffices for most applications, however for demanding situations such as the generation of cryptographic keys, requires an efficient and a cost effective source of random numbers. Arbiter-based Physical Unclonable Functions (PUFs) proposed for physical authentication of ICs exploits statistical delay variation of wires and transistors across integrated circuits, as a result of process variations, to build a secret key unique to each IC. Experimental results and theoretical studies show that a sufficient amount of variation exits across IC"s. This variation enables each IC to be identified securely. It is possible to exploit the unreliability of these PUF responses to build a physical random number generator. There exists measurement noise, which comes from the instability of an arbiter when it is in a racing condition. There exist challenges whose responses are unpredictable. Without environmental variations, the responses of these challenges are random in repeated measurements. Compared to other physical random number generators, the PUF-based random number generators can be a compact and a low-power solution since the generator need only be turned on when required. A 64-stage PUF circuit costs less than 1000 gates and the circuit can be implemented using a standard IC manufacturing processes. In this paper we have presented a fast and an efficient random number generator, and analysed the quality of random numbers produced using an array of tests used by the National Institute of Standards and Technology to evaluate the randomness of random number generators designed for cryptographic applications.
Object grammars and random generation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
I. Dutour
1998-12-01
Full Text Available This paper presents a new systematic approach for the uniform random generation of combinatorial objects. The method is based on the notion of object grammars which give recursive descriptions of objects and generalize context-freegrammars. The application of particular valuations to these grammars leads to enumeration and random generation of objects according to non algebraic parameters.
BWIP-RANDOM-SAMPLING, Random Sample Generation for Nuclear Waste Disposal
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sagar, B.
1989-01-01
1 - Description of program or function: Random samples for different distribution types are generated. Distribution types as required for performance assessment modeling of geologic nuclear waste disposal are provided. These are: - Uniform, - Log-uniform (base 10 or natural), - Normal, - Lognormal (base 10 or natural), - Exponential, - Bernoulli, - User defined continuous distribution. 2 - Method of solution: A linear congruential generator is used for uniform random numbers. A set of functions is used to transform the uniform distribution to the other distributions. Stratified, rather than random, sampling can be chosen. Truncated limits can be specified on many distributions, whose usual definition has an infinite support. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: Generation of correlated random variables is not included
A random number generator for continuous random variables
Guerra, V. M.; Tapia, R. A.; Thompson, J. R.
1972-01-01
A FORTRAN 4 routine is given which may be used to generate random observations of a continuous real valued random variable. Normal distribution of F(x), X, E(akimas), and E(linear) is presented in tabular form.
Uniform random number generators
Farr, W. R.
1971-01-01
Methods are presented for the generation of random numbers with uniform and normal distributions. Subprogram listings of Fortran generators for the Univac 1108, SDS 930, and CDC 3200 digital computers are also included. The generators are of the mixed multiplicative type, and the mathematical method employed is that of Marsaglia and Bray.
Graphical analysis of some pseudo-random number generators
Lewis, Peter A. W.
1986-01-01
There exist today many 'good' pseudo-random number generators; the problem is to retrieve them. This document discusses three commonly used pseudo- random number generators, the first being RANDU, a notoriously bad generator, but one which is still occasionally used. The next is the widely used prime modulus, multiplicative congruential generator used in LL-RANDOMII, the Naval Postgraduate School random number package, and the last is the random number generator provided for microcomputers wi...
A look into the future. Scenarios for distributed generation in Europe
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Scheepers, M.J.J.; Timpe, C.
2003-12-01
Based on the analysis of the long-term historical and future technical, socio-economic and institutional dynamics of European electricity supply systems and markets, the SUSTELNET project developed scenarios for future electricity supply systems in EU Member States and Newly Associated States (NAS). These scenarios provide a background for the development of regulatory road maps, which can be used as a tool to map out a regulatory strategy, facilitating the transition of current regulation into a regulatory framework that is required for future sustainable electricity supply systems. This report describes four different scenarios for the future of electricity systems and distributed generation (DG) in Europe in a qualitative manner. Moreover, the methodology used to develop these scenarios is described as well as the impact that disruptive events may have on these scenarios
Computer generation of random deviates
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cormack, John
1991-01-01
The need for random deviates arises in many scientific applications. In medical physics, Monte Carlo simulations have been used in radiology, radiation therapy and nuclear medicine. Specific instances include the modelling of x-ray scattering processes and the addition of random noise to images or curves in order to assess the effects of various processing procedures. Reliable sources of random deviates with statistical properties indistinguishable from true random deviates are a fundamental necessity for such tasks. This paper provides a review of computer algorithms which can be used to generate uniform random deviates and other distributions of interest to medical physicists, along with a few caveats relating to various problems and pitfalls which can occur. Source code listings for the generators discussed (in FORTRAN, Turbo-PASCAL and Data General ASSEMBLER) are available on request from the authors. 27 refs., 3 tabs., 5 figs
All-optical fast random number generator.
Li, Pu; Wang, Yun-Cai; Zhang, Jian-Zhong
2010-09-13
We propose a scheme of all-optical random number generator (RNG), which consists of an ultra-wide bandwidth (UWB) chaotic laser, an all-optical sampler and an all-optical comparator. Free from the electric-device bandwidth, it can generate 10Gbit/s random numbers in our simulation. The high-speed bit sequences can pass standard statistical tests for randomness after all-optical exclusive-or (XOR) operation.
Probabilistic Wind Power Ramp Forecasting Based on a Scenario Generation Method: Preprint
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wang, Qin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Florita, Anthony R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat K [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hodge, Brian S [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cui, Mingjian [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States); Feng, Cong [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States); Wang, Zhenke [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States); Zhang, Jie [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States)
2017-08-31
Wind power ramps (WPRs) are particularly important in the management and dispatch of wind power, and they are currently drawing the attention of balancing authorities. With the aim to reduce the impact of WPRs for power system operations, this paper develops a probabilistic ramp forecasting method based on a large number of simulated scenarios. An ensemble machine learning technique is first adopted to forecast the basic wind power forecasting scenario and calculate the historical forecasting errors. A continuous Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is used to fit the probability distribution function (PDF) of forecasting errors. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) is analytically deduced. The inverse transform method based on Monte Carlo sampling and the CDF is used to generate a massive number of forecasting error scenarios. An optimized swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract all the WPRs from the complete set of wind power forecasting scenarios. The probabilistic forecasting results of ramp duration and start time are generated based on all scenarios. Numerical simulations on publicly available wind power data show that within a predefined tolerance level, the developed probabilistic wind power ramp forecasting method is able to predict WPRs with a high level of sharpness and accuracy.
Visions, Scenarios and Action Plans Towards Next Generation Tanzania Power System
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alex Kyaruzi
2012-10-01
Full Text Available This paper presents strategic visions, scenarios and action plans for enhancing Tanzania Power Systems towards next generation Smart Power Grid. It first introduces the present Tanzanian power grid and the challenges ahead in terms of generation capacity, financial aspect, technical and non-technical losses, revenue loss, high tariff, aging infrastructure, environmental impact and the interconnection with the neighboring countries. Then, the current initiatives undertaken by the Tanzania government in response to the present challenges and the expected roles of smart grid in overcoming these challenges in the future with respect to the scenarios presented are discussed. The developed scenarios along with visions and recommended action plans towards the future Tanzanian power system can be exploited at all governmental levels to achieve public policy goals and help develop business opportunities by motivating domestic and international investments in modernizing the nation’s electric power infrastructure. In return, it should help build the green energy economy.
Generation of pseudo-random numbers
Howell, L. W.; Rheinfurth, M. H.
1982-01-01
Practical methods for generating acceptable random numbers from a variety of probability distributions which are frequently encountered in engineering applications are described. The speed, accuracy, and guarantee of statistical randomness of the various methods are discussed.
A methodology to generate statistically dependent wind speed scenarios
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Morales, J.M.; Conejo, A.J. [Department of Electrical Engineering, Univ. Castilla - La Mancha, Campus Universitario s/n, 13071 Ciudad Real (Spain); Minguez, R. [Environmental Hydraulics Institute ' ' IH Cantabria' ' , Univ. Cantabria, Avenida de los Castros s/n, 39005 Santander (Spain)
2010-03-15
Wind power - a renewable energy source increasingly attractive from an economic viewpoint - constitutes an electricity production alternative of growing relevance in current electric energy systems. However, wind power is an intermittent source that cannot be dispatched at the will of the producer. Modeling wind power production requires characterizing wind speed at the sites where the wind farms are located. The wind speed at a particular location can be described through a stochastic process that is spatially correlated with the stochastic processes describing wind speeds at other locations. This paper provides a methodology to characterize the stochastic processes pertaining to wind speed at different geographical locations via scenarios. Each one of these scenarios embodies time dependencies and is spatially dependent of the scenarios describing other wind stochastic processes. The scenarios generated by the proposed methodology are intended to be used within stochastic programming decision models to make informed decisions pertaining to wind power production. The methodology proposed is accurate in reproducing wind speed historical series as well as computationally efficient. A comprehensive case study is used to illustrate the capabilities of the proposed methodology. Appropriate conclusions are finally drawn. (author)
A methodology to generate statistically dependent wind speed scenarios
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Morales, J.M.; Minguez, R.; Conejo, A.J.
2010-01-01
Wind power - a renewable energy source increasingly attractive from an economic viewpoint - constitutes an electricity production alternative of growing relevance in current electric energy systems. However, wind power is an intermittent source that cannot be dispatched at the will of the producer. Modeling wind power production requires characterizing wind speed at the sites where the wind farms are located. The wind speed at a particular location can be described through a stochastic process that is spatially correlated with the stochastic processes describing wind speeds at other locations. This paper provides a methodology to characterize the stochastic processes pertaining to wind speed at different geographical locations via scenarios. Each one of these scenarios embodies time dependencies and is spatially dependent of the scenarios describing other wind stochastic processes. The scenarios generated by the proposed methodology are intended to be used within stochastic programming decision models to make informed decisions pertaining to wind power production. The methodology proposed is accurate in reproducing wind speed historical series as well as computationally efficient. A comprehensive case study is used to illustrate the capabilities of the proposed methodology. Appropriate conclusions are finally drawn.
LPTAU, Quasi Random Sequence Generator
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sobol, Ilya M.
1993-01-01
1 - Description of program or function: LPTAU generates quasi random sequences. These are uniformly distributed sets of L=M N points in the N-dimensional unit cube: I N =[0,1]x...x[0,1]. These sequences are used as nodes for multidimensional integration; as searching points in global optimization; as trial points in multi-criteria decision making; as quasi-random points for quasi Monte Carlo algorithms. 2 - Method of solution: Uses LP-TAU sequence generation (see references). 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: The number of points that can be generated is L 30 . The dimension of the space cannot exceed 51
On grey levels in random CAPTCHA generation
Newton, Fraser; Kouritzin, Michael A.
2011-06-01
A CAPTCHA is an automatically generated test designed to distinguish between humans and computer programs; specifically, they are designed to be easy for humans but difficult for computer programs to pass in order to prevent the abuse of resources by automated bots. They are commonly seen guarding webmail registration forms, online auction sites, and preventing brute force attacks on passwords. In the following, we address the question: How does adding a grey level to random CAPTCHA generation affect the utility of the CAPTCHA? We treat the problem of generating the random CAPTCHA as one of random field simulation: An initial state of background noise is evolved over time using Gibbs sampling and an efficient algorithm for generating correlated random variables. This approach has already been found to yield highly-readable yet difficult-to-crack CAPTCHAs. We detail how the requisite parameters for introducing grey levels are estimated and how we generate the random CAPTCHA. The resulting CAPTCHA will be evaluated in terms of human readability as well as its resistance to automated attacks in the forms of character segmentation and optical character recognition.
Generation and Analysis of Constrained Random Sampling Patterns
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pierzchlewski, Jacek; Arildsen, Thomas
2016-01-01
Random sampling is a technique for signal acquisition which is gaining popularity in practical signal processing systems. Nowadays, event-driven analog-to-digital converters make random sampling feasible in practical applications. A process of random sampling is defined by a sampling pattern, which...... indicates signal sampling points in time. Practical random sampling patterns are constrained by ADC characteristics and application requirements. In this paper, we introduce statistical methods which evaluate random sampling pattern generators with emphasis on practical applications. Furthermore, we propose...... algorithm generates random sampling patterns dedicated for event-driven-ADCs better than existed sampling pattern generators. Finally, implementation issues of random sampling patterns are discussed....
Program pseudo-random number generator for microcomputers
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ososkov, G.A.
1980-01-01
Program pseudo-random number generators (PNG) intended for the test of control equipment and communication channels are considered. In the case of 8-bit microcomputers it is necessary to assign 4 words of storage to allocate one random number. The proposed economical algorithms of the random number generation are based on the idea of the ''mixing'' of such quarters of the preceeding random number to obtain the next one. Test results of the PNG are displayed for two such generators. A FORTRAN variant of the PNG is presented along with a program realizing the PNG made on the base of the INTEL-8080 autocode
Generating equilateral random polygons in confinement III
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Diao, Y; Ernst, C; Montemayor, A; Ziegler, U
2012-01-01
In this paper we continue our earlier studies (Diao et al 2011 J. Phys. A: Math. Theor. 44 405202, Diao et al J. Phys. A: Math. Theor. 45 275203) on the generation methods of random equilateral polygons confined in a sphere. The first half of this paper is concerned with the generation of confined equilateral random walks. We show that if the selection of a vertex is uniform subject to the position of its previous vertex and the confining condition, then the distributions of the vertices are not uniform, although there exists a distribution such that if the initial vertex is selected following this distribution, then all vertices of the random walk follow this same distribution. Thus in order to generate a confined equilateral random walk, the selection of a vertex cannot be uniform subject to the position of its previous vertex and the confining condition. We provide a simple algorithm capable of generating confined equilateral random walks whose vertex distribution is almost uniform in the confinement sphere. In the second half of this paper we show that any process generating confined equilateral random walks can be turned into a process generating confined equilateral random polygons with the property that the vertex distribution of the polygons approaches the vertex distribution of the walks as the polygons get longer and longer. In our earlier studies, the starting point of the confined polygon is fixed at the center of the sphere. The new approach here allows us to move the starting point of the confined polygon off the center of the sphere. (paper)
Generation of statistical scenarios of short-term wind power production
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pinson, Pierre; Papaefthymiou, George; Klockl, Bernd
2007-01-01
Short-term (up to 2-3 days ahead) probabilistic forecasts of wind power provide forecast users with a paramount information on the uncertainty of expected wind generation. Whatever the type of these probabilistic forecasts, they are produced on a per horizon basis, and hence do not inform...... on the development of the forecast uncertainty through forecast series. This issue is addressed here by describing a method that permits to generate statistical scenarios of wind generation that accounts for the interdependence structure of prediction errors, in plus of respecting predictive distributions of wind...
Fast physical random bit generation with chaotic semiconductor lasers
Uchida, Atsushi; Amano, Kazuya; Inoue, Masaki; Hirano, Kunihito; Naito, Sunao; Someya, Hiroyuki; Oowada, Isao; Kurashige, Takayuki; Shiki, Masaru; Yoshimori, Shigeru; Yoshimura, Kazuyuki; Davis, Peter
2008-12-01
Random number generators in digital information systems make use of physical entropy sources such as electronic and photonic noise to add unpredictability to deterministically generated pseudo-random sequences. However, there is a large gap between the generation rates achieved with existing physical sources and the high data rates of many computation and communication systems; this is a fundamental weakness of these systems. Here we show that good quality random bit sequences can be generated at very fast bit rates using physical chaos in semiconductor lasers. Streams of bits that pass standard statistical tests for randomness have been generated at rates of up to 1.7 Gbps by sampling the fluctuating optical output of two chaotic lasers. This rate is an order of magnitude faster than that of previously reported devices for physical random bit generators with verified randomness. This means that the performance of random number generators can be greatly improved by using chaotic laser devices as physical entropy sources.
External costs from electricity generation of China up to 2030 in energy and abatement scenarios
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhang, Qingyu; Weili, Tian; Yumei, Wei; Yingxu, Chen
2007-01-01
This paper presents estimated external costs of electricity generation in China under different scenarios of long-term energy and environmental policies. Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) software is used to develop a simple model of electricity demand and to estimate gross electricity generation in China up to 2030 under these scenarios. Because external costs for unit of electricity from fossil fuel will vary in different government regulation periods, airborne pollutant external costs of SO 2 , NO x , PM 10 , and CO 2 from fired power plants are then estimated based on emission inventories and environmental cost for unit of pollutants, while external costs of non-fossil power generation are evaluated with external cost for unit of electricity. The developed model is run to study the impact of different energy efficiency and environmental abatement policy initiatives that would reduce total energy requirement and also reduce external costs of electricity generation. It is shown that external costs of electricity generation may reduce 24-55% with three energy policies scenarios and may further reduce by 20.9-26.7% with two environmental policies scenarios. The total reduction of external costs may reach 58.2%. (author)
Generating Realistic Labelled, Weighted Random Graphs
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Michael Charles Davis
2015-12-01
Full Text Available Generative algorithms for random graphs have yielded insights into the structure and evolution of real-world networks. Most networks exhibit a well-known set of properties, such as heavy-tailed degree distributions, clustering and community formation. Usually, random graph models consider only structural information, but many real-world networks also have labelled vertices and weighted edges. In this paper, we present a generative model for random graphs with discrete vertex labels and numeric edge weights. The weights are represented as a set of Beta Mixture Models (BMMs with an arbitrary number of mixtures, which are learned from real-world networks. We propose a Bayesian Variational Inference (VI approach, which yields an accurate estimation while keeping computation times tractable. We compare our approach to state-of-the-art random labelled graph generators and an earlier approach based on Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs. Our results allow us to draw conclusions about the contribution of vertex labels and edge weights to graph structure.
Quantifiers for randomness of chaotic pseudo-random number generators.
De Micco, L; Larrondo, H A; Plastino, A; Rosso, O A
2009-08-28
We deal with randomness quantifiers and concentrate on their ability to discern the hallmark of chaos in time series used in connection with pseudo-random number generators (PRNGs). Workers in the field are motivated to use chaotic maps for generating PRNGs because of the simplicity of their implementation. Although there exist very efficient general-purpose benchmarks for testing PRNGs, we feel that the analysis provided here sheds additional didactic light on the importance of the main statistical characteristics of a chaotic map, namely (i) its invariant measure and (ii) the mixing constant. This is of help in answering two questions that arise in applications: (i) which is the best PRNG among the available ones? and (ii) if a given PRNG turns out not to be good enough and a randomization procedure must still be applied to it, which is the best applicable randomization procedure? Our answer provides a comparative analysis of several quantifiers advanced in the extant literature.
RANDNA: a random DNA sequence generator.
Piva, Francesco; Principato, Giovanni
2006-01-01
Monte Carlo simulations are useful to verify the significance of data. Genomic regularities, such as the nucleotide correlations or the not uniform distribution of the motifs throughout genomic or mature mRNA sequences, exist and their significance can be checked by means of the Monte Carlo test. The test needs good quality random sequences in order to work, moreover they should have the same nucleotide distribution as the sequences in which the regularities have been found. Random DNA sequences are also useful to estimate the background score of an alignment, that is a threshold below which the resulting score is merely due to chance. We have developed RANDNA, a free software which allows to produce random DNA or RNA sequences setting both their length and the percentage of nucleotide composition. Sequences having the same nucleotide distribution of exonic, intronic or intergenic sequences can be generated. Its graphic interface makes it possible to easily set the parameters that characterize the sequences being produced and saved in a text format file. The pseudo-random number generator function of Borland Delphi 6 is used, since it guarantees a good randomness, a long cycle length and a high speed. We have checked the quality of sequences generated by the software, by means of well-known tests, both by themselves and versus genuine random sequences. We show the good quality of the generated sequences. The software, complete with examples and documentation, is freely available to users from: http://www.introni.it/en/software.
Generating and using truly random quantum states in Mathematica
Miszczak, Jarosław Adam
2012-01-01
The problem of generating random quantum states is of a great interest from the quantum information theory point of view. In this paper we present a package for Mathematica computing system harnessing a specific piece of hardware, namely Quantis quantum random number generator (QRNG), for investigating statistical properties of quantum states. The described package implements a number of functions for generating random states, which use Quantis QRNG as a source of randomness. It also provides procedures which can be used in simulations not related directly to quantum information processing. Program summaryProgram title: TRQS Catalogue identifier: AEKA_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEKA_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: Standard CPC licence, http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/licence/licence.html No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 7924 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 88 651 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: Mathematica, C Computer: Requires a Quantis quantum random number generator (QRNG, http://www.idquantique.com/true-random-number-generator/products-overview.html) and supporting a recent version of Mathematica Operating system: Any platform supporting Mathematica; tested with GNU/Linux (32 and 64 bit) RAM: Case dependent Classification: 4.15 Nature of problem: Generation of random density matrices. Solution method: Use of a physical quantum random number generator. Running time: Generating 100 random numbers takes about 1 second, generating 1000 random density matrices takes more than a minute.
New Trends in Pseudo-Random Number Generation
Gutbrod, F.
Properties of pseudo-random number generators are reviewed. The emphasis is on correlations between successive random numbers and their suppression by improvement steps. The generators under discussion are the linear congruential generators, lagged Fibonacci generators with various operations, and the improvement techniques combination, shuffling and decimation. The properties of the RANSHI generator are reviewed somewhat more extensively. The transition to 64-bit technology is discussed in several cases. The generators are subject to several tests, which look both for short range and for long range correlations. Some performance figures are given for a Pentium Pro PC. Recommendations are presented in the final chapter.
Evidence of significant bias in an elementary random number generator
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Borgwaldt, H.; Brandl, V.
1981-03-01
An elementary pseudo random number generator for isotropically distributed unit vectors in 3-dimensional space has ben tested for bias. This generator uses the IBM-suplied routine RANDU and a transparent rejection technique. The tests show clearly that non-randomness in the pseudo random numbers generated by the primary IBM generator leads to bias in the order of 1 percent in estimates obtained from the secondary random number generator. FORTRAN listings of 4 variants of the random number generator called by a simple test programme and output listings are included for direct reference. (orig.) [de
Generating equilateral random polygons in confinement II
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Diao, Y; Ernst, C; Montemayor, A; Ziegler, U
2012-01-01
In this paper we continue an earlier study (Diao et al 2011 J. Phys. A: Math. Theor. 44 405202) on the generation algorithms of random equilateral polygons confined in a sphere. Here, the equilateral random polygons are rooted at the center of the confining sphere and the confining sphere behaves like an absorbing boundary. One way to generate such a random polygon is the accept/reject method in which an unconditioned equilateral random polygon rooted at origin is generated. The polygon is accepted if it is within the confining sphere, otherwise it is rejected and the process is repeated. The algorithm proposed in this paper offers an alternative to the accept/reject method, yielding a faster generation process when the confining sphere is small. In order to use this algorithm effectively, a large, reusable data set needs to be pre-computed only once. We derive the theoretical distribution of the given random polygon model and demonstrate, with strong numerical evidence, that our implementation of the algorithm follows this distribution. A run time analysis and a numerical error estimate are given at the end of the paper. (paper)
Quantum random number generation for loophole-free Bell tests
Mitchell, Morgan; Abellan, Carlos; Amaya, Waldimar
2015-05-01
We describe the generation of quantum random numbers at multi-Gbps rates, combined with real-time randomness extraction, to give very high purity random numbers based on quantum events at most tens of ns in the past. The system satisfies the stringent requirements of quantum non-locality tests that aim to close the timing loophole. We describe the generation mechanism using spontaneous-emission-driven phase diffusion in a semiconductor laser, digitization, and extraction by parity calculation using multi-GHz logic chips. We pay special attention to experimental proof of the quality of the random numbers and analysis of the randomness extraction. In contrast to widely-used models of randomness generators in the computer science literature, we argue that randomness generation by spontaneous emission can be extracted from a single source.
Generating random numbers by means of nonlinear dynamic systems
Zang, Jiaqi; Hu, Haojie; Zhong, Juhua; Luo, Duanbin; Fang, Yi
2018-07-01
To introduce the randomness of a physical process to students, a chaotic pendulum experiment was opened in East China University of Science and Technology (ECUST) on the undergraduate level in the physics department. It was shown chaotic motion could be initiated through adjusting the operation of a chaotic pendulum. By using the data of the angular displacements of chaotic motion, random binary numerical arrays can be generated. To check the randomness of generated numerical arrays, the NIST Special Publication 800-20 method was adopted. As a result, it was found that all the random arrays which were generated by the chaotic motion could pass the validity criteria and some of them were even better than the quality of pseudo-random numbers generated by a computer. Through the experiments, it is demonstrated that chaotic pendulum can be used as an efficient mechanical facility in generating random numbers, and can be applied in teaching random motion to the students.
The intermittency of vector fields and random-number generators
Kalinin, A. O.; Sokoloff, D. D.; Tutubalin, V. N.
2017-09-01
We examine how well natural random-number generators can reproduce the intermittency phenomena that arise in the transfer of vector fields in random media. A generator based on the analysis of financial indices is suggested as the most promising random-number generator. Is it shown that even this generator, however, fails to reproduce the phenomenon long enough to confidently detect intermittency, while the C++ generator successfully solves this problem. We discuss the prospects of using shell models of turbulence as the desired generator.
Pseudo-Random Number Generator Based on Coupled Map Lattices
Lü, Huaping; Wang, Shihong; Hu, Gang
A one-way coupled chaotic map lattice is used for generating pseudo-random numbers. It is shown that with suitable cooperative applications of both chaotic and conventional approaches, the output of the spatiotemporally chaotic system can easily meet the practical requirements of random numbers, i.e., excellent random statistical properties, long periodicity of computer realizations, and fast speed of random number generations. This pseudo-random number generator system can be used as ideal synchronous and self-synchronizing stream cipher systems for secure communications.
Generating random walks and polygons with stiffness in confinement
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Diao, Y; Ernst, C; Saarinen, S; Ziegler, U
2015-01-01
The purpose of this paper is to explore ways to generate random walks and polygons in confinement with a bias toward stiffness. Here the stiffness refers to the curvature angle between two consecutive edges along the random walk or polygon. The stiffer the walk (polygon), the smaller this angle on average. Thus random walks and polygons with an elevated stiffness have lower than expected curvatures. The authors introduced and studied several generation algorithms with a stiffness parameter s>0 that regulates the expected curvature angle at a given vertex in which the random walks and polygons are generated one edge at a time using conditional probability density functions. Our generating algorithms also allow the generation of unconfined random walks and polygons with any desired mean curvature angle. In the case of random walks and polygons confined in a sphere of fixed radius, we observe that, as expected, stiff random walks or polygons are more likely to be close to the confinement boundary. The methods developed here require that the random walks and random polygons be rooted at the center of the confinement sphere. (paper)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Thumb, S.; Glover, W.; Hughes, W.R.
1996-07-01
Results of three EPRI projects have been combined to analyze power industry consumption of gas and other generating fuels. The report's capstone is a scenario analysis of power industry generation and fuel consumption. The Utility Fuel Consumption Model (UFCM), developed for the project, predicts generating capacity and generation by region and fuel through 2015, based on load duration curves, generation dispatch, and expected capacity additions. Scenarios embody uncertain factors, such as electricity demand growth, fuel switching, coal-gas competition, the merit order of gas-coal dispatch, and retirement of nuclear units, that substantially affect gas consumption. Some factors, especially electricity demand have very large effects. The report includes a consistent database on NUG (non-utility generation) capacity and generation and assesses historical and prospective trends in NUG generation. The report shows that NUG capacity growth will soon decline substantially. The study assesses industry capability for price-induced fuel switching from gas to oil and coal, documenting conversions of coal units to dual coal-gas capability and determining that gas-to-oil switching remains a strong influence on fuel availability and gas prices, though regulation and taxation have increased trigger prices for switching. 61 tabs
Testing, Selection, and Implementation of Random Number Generators
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Collins, Joseph C
2008-01-01
An exhaustive evaluation of state-of-the-art random number generators with several well-known suites of tests provides the basis for selection of suitable random number generators for use in stochastic simulations...
Pseudo-random number generator based on asymptotic deterministic randomness
Wang, Kai; Pei, Wenjiang; Xia, Haishan; Cheung, Yiu-ming
2008-06-01
A novel approach to generate the pseudorandom-bit sequence from the asymptotic deterministic randomness system is proposed in this Letter. We study the characteristic of multi-value correspondence of the asymptotic deterministic randomness constructed by the piecewise linear map and the noninvertible nonlinearity transform, and then give the discretized systems in the finite digitized state space. The statistic characteristics of the asymptotic deterministic randomness are investigated numerically, such as stationary probability density function and random-like behavior. Furthermore, we analyze the dynamics of the symbolic sequence. Both theoretical and experimental results show that the symbolic sequence of the asymptotic deterministic randomness possesses very good cryptographic properties, which improve the security of chaos based PRBGs and increase the resistance against entropy attacks and symbolic dynamics attacks.
Pseudo-random number generator based on asymptotic deterministic randomness
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wang Kai; Pei Wenjiang; Xia Haishan; Cheung Yiuming
2008-01-01
A novel approach to generate the pseudorandom-bit sequence from the asymptotic deterministic randomness system is proposed in this Letter. We study the characteristic of multi-value correspondence of the asymptotic deterministic randomness constructed by the piecewise linear map and the noninvertible nonlinearity transform, and then give the discretized systems in the finite digitized state space. The statistic characteristics of the asymptotic deterministic randomness are investigated numerically, such as stationary probability density function and random-like behavior. Furthermore, we analyze the dynamics of the symbolic sequence. Both theoretical and experimental results show that the symbolic sequence of the asymptotic deterministic randomness possesses very good cryptographic properties, which improve the security of chaos based PRBGs and increase the resistance against entropy attacks and symbolic dynamics attacks
Generation of large-scale PV scenarios using aggregated power curves
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nuño Martinez, Edgar; Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio
2017-01-01
The contribution of solar photovoltaic (PV) power to the generation is becoming more relevant in modern power system. Therefore, there is a need to model the variability large-scale PV generation accurately. This paper presents a novel methodology to generate regional PV scenarios based...... on aggregated power curves rather than traditional physical PV conversion models. Our approach is based on hourly mesoscale reanalysis irradiation data and power measurements and do not require additional variables such as ambient temperature or wind speed. It was used to simulate the PV generation...... on the German system between 2012 and 2015 showing high levels of correlation with actual measurements (93.02–97.60%) and small deviations from the expected capacity factors (0.02–1.80%). Therefore, we are confident about the ability of the proposed model to accurately generate realistic large-scale PV...
Towards a high-speed quantum random number generator
Stucki, Damien; Burri, Samuel; Charbon, Edoardo; Chunnilall, Christopher; Meneghetti, Alessio; Regazzoni, Francesco
2013-10-01
Randomness is of fundamental importance in various fields, such as cryptography, numerical simulations, or the gaming industry. Quantum physics, which is fundamentally probabilistic, is the best option for a physical random number generator. In this article, we will present the work carried out in various projects in the context of the development of a commercial and certified high speed random number generator.
Chaos-based Pseudo-random Number Generation
Barakat, Mohamed L.
2014-04-10
Various methods and systems related to chaos-based pseudo-random number generation are presented. In one example, among others, a system includes a pseudo-random number generator (PRNG) to generate a series of digital outputs and a nonlinear post processing circuit to perform an exclusive OR (XOR) operation on a first portion of a current digital output of the PRNG and a permutated version of a corresponding first portion of a previous post processed output to generate a corresponding first portion of a current post processed output. In another example, a method includes receiving at least a first portion of a current output from a PRNG and performing an XOR operation on the first portion of the current PRNG output with a permutated version of a corresponding first portion of a previous post processed output to generate a corresponding first portion of a current post processed output.
Chaos-based Pseudo-random Number Generation
Barakat, Mohamed L.; Mansingka, Abhinav S.; Radwan, Ahmed Gomaa Ahmed; Salama, Khaled N.
2014-01-01
Various methods and systems related to chaos-based pseudo-random number generation are presented. In one example, among others, a system includes a pseudo-random number generator (PRNG) to generate a series of digital outputs and a nonlinear post processing circuit to perform an exclusive OR (XOR) operation on a first portion of a current digital output of the PRNG and a permutated version of a corresponding first portion of a previous post processed output to generate a corresponding first portion of a current post processed output. In another example, a method includes receiving at least a first portion of a current output from a PRNG and performing an XOR operation on the first portion of the current PRNG output with a permutated version of a corresponding first portion of a previous post processed output to generate a corresponding first portion of a current post processed output.
A Method of Erasing Data Using Random Number Generators
井上,正人
2012-01-01
Erasing data is an indispensable step for disposal of computers or external storage media. Except physical destruction, erasing data means writing random information on entire disk drives or media. We propose a method which erases data safely using random number generators. These random number generators create true random numbers based on quantum processes.
DNA-based random number generation in security circuitry.
Gearheart, Christy M; Arazi, Benjamin; Rouchka, Eric C
2010-06-01
DNA-based circuit design is an area of research in which traditional silicon-based technologies are replaced by naturally occurring phenomena taken from biochemistry and molecular biology. This research focuses on further developing DNA-based methodologies to mimic digital data manipulation. While exhibiting fundamental principles, this work was done in conjunction with the vision that DNA-based circuitry, when the technology matures, will form the basis for a tamper-proof security module, revolutionizing the meaning and concept of tamper-proofing and possibly preventing it altogether based on accurate scientific observations. A paramount part of such a solution would be self-generation of random numbers. A novel prototype schema employs solid phase synthesis of oligonucleotides for random construction of DNA sequences; temporary storage and retrieval is achieved through plasmid vectors. A discussion of how to evaluate sequence randomness is included, as well as how these techniques are applied to a simulation of the random number generation circuitry. Simulation results show generated sequences successfully pass three selected NIST random number generation tests specified for security applications.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jackson W. Cryns
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Harvesting power with a piezoelectric vibration powered generator using a full-wave rectifier conditioning circuit is experimentally compared for varying sinusoidal, random, and sine on random (SOR input vibration scenarios; the implications of source vibration characteristics on harvester design are discussed. The rise in popularity of harvesting energy from ambient vibrations has made compact, energy dense piezoelectric generators commercially available. Much of the available literature focuses on maximizing harvested power through nonlinear processing circuits that require accurate knowledge of generator internal mechanical and electrical characteristics and idealization of the input vibration source, which cannot be assumed in general application. Variations in source vibration and load resistance are explored for a commercially available piezoelectric generator. The results agree with numerical and theoretical predictions in the previous literature for optimal power harvesting in sinusoidal and flat broadband vibration scenarios. Going beyond idealized steady-state sinusoidal and flat random vibration input, experimental SOR testing allows for more accurate representation of real world ambient vibration. It is shown that characteristic interactions from more complex vibration sources significantly alter power generation and processing requirements by varying harvested power, shifting optimal conditioning impedance, inducing voltage fluctuations, and ultimately rendering idealized sinusoidal and random analyses incorrect.
A hybrid-type quantum random number generator
Hai-Qiang, Ma; Wu, Zhu; Ke-Jin, Wei; Rui-Xue, Li; Hong-Wei, Liu
2016-05-01
This paper proposes a well-performing hybrid-type truly quantum random number generator based on the time interval between two independent single-photon detection signals, which is practical and intuitive, and generates the initial random number sources from a combination of multiple existing random number sources. A time-to-amplitude converter and multichannel analyzer are used for qualitative analysis to demonstrate that each and every step is random. Furthermore, a carefully designed data acquisition system is used to obtain a high-quality random sequence. Our scheme is simple and proves that the random number bit rate can be dramatically increased to satisfy practical requirements. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 61178010 and 11374042), the Fund of State Key Laboratory of Information Photonics and Optical Communications (Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications), China, and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China (Grant No. bupt2014TS01).
Microcomputer-Assisted Discoveries: Generate Your Own Random Numbers.
Kimberling, Clark
1984-01-01
Having students try to generate their own random numbers can lead to much discovery learning as one tries to create 'patternlessness' from formulas. Developing an equidistribution test and runs test, plus other ideas for generating random numbers, is discussed, with computer programs given. (MNS)
Solution-Processed Carbon Nanotube True Random Number Generator.
Gaviria Rojas, William A; McMorrow, Julian J; Geier, Michael L; Tang, Qianying; Kim, Chris H; Marks, Tobin J; Hersam, Mark C
2017-08-09
With the growing adoption of interconnected electronic devices in consumer and industrial applications, there is an increasing demand for robust security protocols when transmitting and receiving sensitive data. Toward this end, hardware true random number generators (TRNGs), commonly used to create encryption keys, offer significant advantages over software pseudorandom number generators. However, the vast network of devices and sensors envisioned for the "Internet of Things" will require small, low-cost, and mechanically flexible TRNGs with low computational complexity. These rigorous constraints position solution-processed semiconducting single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs) as leading candidates for next-generation security devices. Here, we demonstrate the first TRNG using static random access memory (SRAM) cells based on solution-processed SWCNTs that digitize thermal noise to generate random bits. This bit generation strategy can be readily implemented in hardware with minimal transistor and computational overhead, resulting in an output stream that passes standardized statistical tests for randomness. By using solution-processed semiconducting SWCNTs in a low-power, complementary architecture to achieve TRNG, we demonstrate a promising approach for improving the security of printable and flexible electronics.
Pseudo-Random Number Generators
Howell, L. W.; Rheinfurth, M. H.
1984-01-01
Package features comprehensive selection of probabilistic distributions. Monte Carlo simulations resorted to whenever systems studied not amenable to deterministic analyses or when direct experimentation not feasible. Random numbers having certain specified distribution characteristic integral part of simulations. Package consists of collector of "pseudorandom" number generators for use in Monte Carlo simulations.
Microcomputer Unit: Generating Random Numbers.
Haigh, William E.
1986-01-01
Presents an activity, suitable for students in grades 6-12, on generating random numbers. Objectives, equipment needed, list of prerequisite experiences, instructional strategies, and ready-to-copy student worksheets are included. (JN)
a Pseudo-Random Number Generator Employing Multiple RÉNYI Maps
Lui, Oi-Yan; Yuen, Ching-Hung; Wong, Kwok-Wo
2013-11-01
The increasing risk along with the drastic development of multimedia data transmission has raised a big concern on data security. A good pseudo-random number generator is an essential tool in cryptography. In this paper, we propose a novel pseudo-random number generator based on the controlled combination of the outputs of several digitized chaotic Rényi maps. The generated pseudo-random sequences have passed both the NIST 800-22 Revision 1a and the DIEHARD tests. Moreover, simulation results show that the proposed pseudo-random number generator requires less operation time than existing generators and is highly sensitive to the seed.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Tastu, J.; Pinson, P.; Madsen, Henrik
2013-09-01
The emphasis in this work is placed on generating space-time trajectories (also referred to as scenarios) of wind power generation. This calls for prediction of multivariate densities describing wind power generation at a number of distributed locations and for a number of successive lead times. A modelling approach taking advantage of sparsity of precision matrices is introduced for the description of the underlying space-time dependence structure. The proposed parametrization of the dependence structure accounts for such important process characteristics as non-constant conditional precisions and direction-dependent cross-correlations. Accounting for the space-time effects is shown to be crucial for generating high quality scenarios. (Author)
Radioactive waste assessment using 'moderate growth in nuclear electricity generation' scenario
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Richardson, J.A.; Goodill, D.R.; Tymons, B.J.
1985-05-01
This report describes an assessment of radioactive waste management arisings from a defined nuclear power generation scenario -Scheme 3. Scheme 3 assumes a moderate growth in nuclear generation scenario with raw waste arisings from 3 main groups: (i) existing and committed commercial reactors; (ii) fuel reprocessing plants; (iii) research, industry and medicine. No decommissioning wastes are considered except for arisings from the final fuel cores from decommissioned reactors. The study uses the SIMULATION2 code which models waste material flows through the system. With a knowledge of the accumulations and average production rates of the raw wastes and their isotopic compositions (or total activities), the rates at which conditioned wastes become available for transportation and disposal are calculated, with specific activity levels. The data bases for the inventory calculations and the assumptions concerning future operation of nuclear facilities were those current in 1983. Both the inventory data and plans for the future of existing nuclear installations have been updated since these calculations were completed. Therefore the results from this assessment do not represent the most up-to-date information available. The report does, however, illustrate the methodology of assessment, and indicates the type of information that can be generated. (author)
Analysis of random number generators in abnormal usage conditions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Soucarros, M.
2012-01-01
Random numbers have been used through the ages for games of chance, more recently for secret codes and today they are necessary to the execution of computer programs. Random number generators have now evolved from simple dices to electronic circuits and algorithms. Accordingly, the ability to distinguish between random and non-random numbers has become more difficult. Furthermore, whereas in the past dices were loaded in order to increase winning chances, it is now possible to influence the outcome of random number generators. In consequence, this subject is still very much an issue and has recently made the headlines. Indeed, there was talks about the PS3 game console which generates constant random numbers and redundant distribution of secret keys on the internet. This thesis presents a study of several generators as well as different means to perturb them. It shows the inherent defects of their conceptions and possible consequences of their failure when they are embedded inside security components. Moreover, this work highlights problems yet to be solved concerning the testing of random numbers and the post-processing eliminating bias in these numbers distribution. (author) [fr
Pseudo-random number generation using a 3-state cellular automaton
Bhattacharjee, Kamalika; Paul, Dipanjyoti; Das, Sukanta
This paper investigates the potentiality of pseudo-random number generation of a 3-neighborhood 3-state cellular automaton (CA) under periodic boundary condition. Theoretical and empirical tests are performed on the numbers, generated by the CA, to observe the quality of it as pseudo-random number generator (PRNG). We analyze the strength and weakness of the proposed PRNG and conclude that the selected CA is a good random number generator.
Vulnerability of Hidropower Generation in Amazon's Tributaries Under Global Change Scenarios
Von Randow, R.; Siqueira, J. L., Jr.; Rodriguez, D. A.; Tomasella, J.; Floriano, L. E.
2014-12-01
The Brazilian energy sector is under continued expansion. The majority of energy power generation in the country is done through hydropower, which represents around 88% of the energy originated from renewable sources in the country. Still, only 10% of the high potential for production of the Amazon basin is currently availed, and this raises attention for the implantation of new hydropower plants in the region. When a hydropower plant is considered to be built, the natural characteristics of the region are taken into account, considering that the rainfall regime follows certain stationarity. However, under the possibility of global change, the expected capacity of the plants may be compromised. The objective of this study is to evaluate if the current hydropower plants of some Amazon River tributaries can maintain their functionality under global environmental change conditions. For that, based on the discharge data and hydropower information available by Brazilian National Agency of Water and Energy we will infer the energy potential of these hydropower dams for the historic period that will be compared with the energy potential for future discharge under global environmental change conditions. The future discharge will be generated by the Distributed Hydrological Model developed at the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (MHD-INPE), driven by different climate change scenarios projected by regional and global atmospheric models, associated with land use scenarios projected by a dynamic land use model (LUCC-ME/INPE). MHD-INPE will be calibrated through observed discharges for 1970-1990 using current land use conditions, and will generate discharges for the period of 2000 to 2050. In addition, special attention will be given to the presence of secondary forest growth in the land use scenarios in order to identify the importance of considering this use in the modelling exercise, since that use is not usually considered in hydrological modelling studies.
Global sensitivity analysis of the BSM2 dynamic influent disturbance scenario generator
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Flores-Alsina, Xavier; Gernaey, Krist V.; Jeppsson, Ulf
2012-01-01
This paper presents the results of a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of a phenomenological model that generates dynamic wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) influent disturbance scenarios. This influent model is part of the Benchmark Simulation Model (BSM) family and creates realistic dry/wet weat...
Emissions implications of downscaled electricity generation scenarios for the western United States
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Nsanzineza, Rene; O’Connell, Matthew; Brinkman, Gregory; Milford, Jana B.
2017-10-01
This study explores how emissions from electricity generation in the Western Interconnection region of the U.S. might respond in circa 2030 to contrasting scenarios for fuel prices and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions fees. We examine spatial and temporal variations in generation mix across the region and year using the PLEXOS unit commitment and dispatch model with a production cost model database adapted from the Western Electricity Coordinating Council. Emissions estimates are computed by combining the dispatch model results with unit-specific, emissions-load relationships. Wind energy displaces natural gas and coal in scenarios with relatively expensive natural gas or with GHG fees. Correspondingly, annual emissions of NOx, SO2, and CO2 are reduced by 20-40% in these cases. NOx emissions, which are a concern as a precursor of ground-level ozone, are relatively high and consistent across scenarios during summer, when peak electricity loads occur and wind resources in the region are comparatively weak. Accounting for the difference in start-up versus stabilized NOx emissions rates for natural gas plants had little impact on region-wide emissions estimates due to the dominant contribution from coal-fired plants, but would be more important in the vicinity of the natural gas units.
Physical Principle for Generation of Randomness
Zak, Michail
2009-01-01
A physical principle (more precisely, a principle that incorporates mathematical models used in physics) has been conceived as the basis of a method of generating randomness in Monte Carlo simulations. The principle eliminates the need for conventional random-number generators. The Monte Carlo simulation method is among the most powerful computational methods for solving high-dimensional problems in physics, chemistry, economics, and information processing. The Monte Carlo simulation method is especially effective for solving problems in which computational complexity increases exponentially with dimensionality. The main advantage of the Monte Carlo simulation method over other methods is that the demand on computational resources becomes independent of dimensionality. As augmented by the present principle, the Monte Carlo simulation method becomes an even more powerful computational method that is especially useful for solving problems associated with dynamics of fluids, planning, scheduling, and combinatorial optimization. The present principle is based on coupling of dynamical equations with the corresponding Liouville equation. The randomness is generated by non-Lipschitz instability of dynamics triggered and controlled by feedback from the Liouville equation. (In non-Lipschitz dynamics, the derivatives of solutions of the dynamical equations are not required to be bounded.)
Search for a perfect generator of random numbers
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Musyck, E.
1977-01-01
Theoretical tests have been carried out by COVEYOU and MAC PHERSON to verify the applications of the LEHMER algorithm. In a similar way, a theoretical method is proposed to evaluate in a rigorous way the random character of numbers generated by a shift register. This theory introduces the concept of ''degree of randomness'' of the elements, taken in a definite order, of a shift register. It permits making the judicious choice of the elements of the shift register which will produce the bits of the random numbers. On the other hand, a calculation method is developed in order to verify the primitive character of any shift register of high complexity. A new test, called ''slice test'', of empirical and theoretical use is also described; it constitutes a significant contribution to the understanding of certain properties of pseudo-random sequences. As a practical example, a random number generator structure formed with 32 bits, built out of a shift register with 61 elements and 60 modulo-2 adder circuits was made. The author is convinced that this generator can be considered to be practically perfect for all empirical applications of random numbers, particularly for the solution of Monte-Carlo problems. (author)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ruoss, F.; Turton, H.; Hirschberg, S.
2009-12-01
This report presents the findings of a survey of key factors affecting the deployment of electricity generation technologies in selected energy scenarios. The assumptions and results of scenarios, and the different models used in their construction, are compared. Particular attention is given to technology assumptions, such as investment cost or capacity factors, and their impact on technology deployment. We conclude that the deployment of available technologies, i.e. their market shares, can only be explained from a holistic perspective, and that there are strong interactions between driving forces and competing technology options within a certain scenario. Already the design of a scenario analysis has important impacts on the deployment of technologies: the choice of the set of available technologies, the modeling approach and the definition of the storylines determine the outcome. Furthermore, the quantification of these storylines into input parameters and cost assumptions drives technology deployment, even though differences across the scenarios in cost assumptions are not observed to account for many of the observed differences in electricity technology deployment. The deployment can only be understood after a consideration of the interplay of technology options and the scale of technology deployment, which is determined by economic growth, end-use efficiency, and electrification. Some input parameters are of particular importance for certain technologies: CO 2 prices, fuel prices and the availability of carbon capture and storage appear to be crucial for the deployment of fossil-fueled power plants; maximum construction rates and safety concerns determine the market share of nuclear power; the availability of suitable sites represents the most important factor for electricity generation from hydro and wind power plants; and technology breakthroughs are needed for solar photovoltaics to become cost-competitive. Finally, this analysis concludes with a review
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ruoss, F.; Turton, H.; Hirschberg, S.
2009-12-15
This report presents the findings of a survey of key factors affecting the deployment of electricity generation technologies in selected energy scenarios. The assumptions and results of scenarios, and the different models used in their construction, are compared. Particular attention is given to technology assumptions, such as investment cost or capacity factors, and their impact on technology deployment. We conclude that the deployment of available technologies, i.e. their market shares, can only be explained from a holistic perspective, and that there are strong interactions between driving forces and competing technology options within a certain scenario. Already the design of a scenario analysis has important impacts on the deployment of technologies: the choice of the set of available technologies, the modeling approach and the definition of the storylines determine the outcome. Furthermore, the quantification of these storylines into input parameters and cost assumptions drives technology deployment, even though differences across the scenarios in cost assumptions are not observed to account for many of the observed differences in electricity technology deployment. The deployment can only be understood after a consideration of the interplay of technology options and the scale of technology deployment, which is determined by economic growth, end-use efficiency, and electrification. Some input parameters are of particular importance for certain technologies: CO{sub 2} prices, fuel prices and the availability of carbon capture and storage appear to be crucial for the deployment of fossil-fueled power plants; maximum construction rates and safety concerns determine the market share of nuclear power; the availability of suitable sites represents the most important factor for electricity generation from hydro and wind power plants; and technology breakthroughs are needed for solar photovoltaics to become cost-competitive. Finally, this analysis concludes with a
Random-Number Generator Validity in Simulation Studies: An Investigation of Normality.
Bang, Jung W.; Schumacker, Randall E.; Schlieve, Paul L.
1998-01-01
The normality of number distributions generated by various random-number generators were studied, focusing on when the random-number generator reached a normal distribution and at what sample size. Findings suggest the steps that should be followed when using a random-number generator in a Monte Carlo simulation. (SLD)
Pseudo-random number generator for the Sigma 5 computer
Carroll, S. N.
1983-01-01
A technique is presented for developing a pseudo-random number generator based on the linear congruential form. The two numbers used for the generator are a prime number and a corresponding primitive root, where the prime is the largest prime number that can be accurately represented on a particular computer. The primitive root is selected by applying Marsaglia's lattice test. The technique presented was applied to write a random number program for the Sigma 5 computer. The new program, named S:RANDOM1, is judged to be superior to the older program named S:RANDOM. For applications requiring several independent random number generators, a table is included showing several acceptable primitive roots. The technique and programs described can be applied to any computer having word length different from that of the Sigma 5.
The Environmental Scenario Generator (ESG: a distributed environmental data archive analysis tool
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
E A Kihn
2006-01-01
Full Text Available The Environmental Scenario Generator (ESG is a network distributed software system designed to allow a user to interact with archives of environmental data for the purpose of scenario extraction, data analysis and integration with existing models that require environmental input. The ESG uses fuzzy-logic based search tools to allow a user to look for specific environmental scenarios in vast archives by specifying the search in human linguistic terms. For example, the user can specify a scenario such as a "cloud free week" or "high winds and low pressure" and then search relevant archives available across the network to get a list of matching events. The ESG hooks to existing archives of data by providing a simple communication framework and an efficient data model for exchanging data. Once data has been delivered by the distributed archives in the ESG data model, it can easily be accessed by the visualization, integration and analysis components to meet specific user requests. The ESG implementation provides a framework which can be taken as a pattern applicable to other distributed archive systems.
Device-independent randomness generation from several Bell estimators
Nieto-Silleras, Olmo; Bamps, Cédric; Silman, Jonathan; Pironio, Stefano
2018-02-01
Device-independent randomness generation and quantum key distribution protocols rely on a fundamental relation between the non-locality of quantum theory and its random character. This relation is usually expressed in terms of a trade-off between the probability of guessing correctly the outcomes of measurements performed on quantum systems and the amount of violation of a given Bell inequality. However, a more accurate assessment of the randomness produced in Bell experiments can be obtained if the value of several Bell expressions is simultaneously taken into account, or if the full set of probabilities characterizing the behavior of the device is considered. We introduce protocols for device-independent randomness generation secure against classical side information, that rely on the estimation of an arbitrary number of Bell expressions or even directly on the experimental frequencies of measurement outcomes. Asymptotically, this results in an optimal generation of randomness from experimental data (as measured by the min-entropy), without having to assume beforehand that the devices violate a specific Bell inequality.
Classifying Scenarios in a Product Design Process: a study to achieve automated scenario generation
Anggreeni, Irene; van der Voort, Mascha C.; van Houten, F.J.A.M.; Miedema, J.; Lutters, D.
2008-01-01
This paper explains the possible uses of scenarios in product design. A scenario classification is proposed as a framework to create, use and reuse different types of scenarios in a product design process. Our aims are three-fold: (1) to obtain a better view on the extent to which scenarios can be
About the problem of generating three-dimensional pseudo-random points.
Carpintero, D. D.
The author demonstrates that a popular pseudo-random number generator is not adequate in some circumstances to generate n-dimensional random points, n > 2. This problem is particularly noxious when direction cosines are generated. He proposes several soultions, among them a good generator that satisfies all statistical criteria.
Image encryption using random sequence generated from generalized information domain
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhang Xia-Yan; Wu Jie-Hua; Zhang Guo-Ji; Li Xuan; Ren Ya-Zhou
2016-01-01
A novel image encryption method based on the random sequence generated from the generalized information domain and permutation–diffusion architecture is proposed. The random sequence is generated by reconstruction from the generalized information file and discrete trajectory extraction from the data stream. The trajectory address sequence is used to generate a P-box to shuffle the plain image while random sequences are treated as keystreams. A new factor called drift factor is employed to accelerate and enhance the performance of the random sequence generator. An initial value is introduced to make the encryption method an approximately one-time pad. Experimental results show that the random sequences pass the NIST statistical test with a high ratio and extensive analysis demonstrates that the new encryption scheme has superior security. (paper)
Generating equilateral random polygons in confinement
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Diao, Y; Ernst, C; Montemayor, A; Ziegler, U
2011-01-01
One challenging problem in biology is to understand the mechanism of DNA packing in a confined volume such as a cell. It is known that confined circular DNA is often knotted and hence the topology of the extracted (and relaxed) circular DNA can be used as a probe of the DNA packing mechanism. However, in order to properly estimate the topological properties of the confined circular DNA structures using mathematical models, it is necessary to generate large ensembles of simulated closed chains (i.e. polygons) of equal edge lengths that are confined in a volume such as a sphere of certain fixed radius. Finding efficient algorithms that properly sample the space of such confined equilateral random polygons is a difficult problem. In this paper, we propose a method that generates confined equilateral random polygons based on their probability distribution. This method requires the creation of a large database initially. However, once the database has been created, a confined equilateral random polygon of length n can be generated in linear time in terms of n. The errors introduced by the method can be controlled and reduced by the refinement of the database. Furthermore, our numerical simulations indicate that these errors are unbiased and tend to cancel each other in a long polygon. (paper)
Super fast physical-random number generation using laser diode frequency noises
Ushiki, Tetsuro; Doi, Kohei; Maehara, Shinya; Sato, Takashi; Ohkawa, Masashi; Ohdaira, Yasuo
2011-02-01
Random numbers can be classified as either pseudo- or physical-random in character. Pseudo-random numbers' periodicity renders them inappropriate for use in cryptographic applications, but naturally-generated physical-random numbers have no calculable periodicity, thereby making them ideally-suited to the task. The laser diode naturally produces a wideband "noise" signal that is believed to have tremendous capacity and great promise, for the rapid generation of physical-random numbers for use in cryptographic applications. We measured a laser diode's output, at a fast photo detector and generated physical-random numbers from frequency noises. We then identified and evaluated the binary-number-line's statistical properties. The result shows that physical-random number generation, at speeds as high as 40Gbps, is obtainable, using the laser diode's frequency noise characteristic.
An X-ray CCD signal generator with true random arrival time
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Huo Jia; Xu Yuming; Chen Yong; Cui Weiwei; Li Wei; Zhang Ziliang; Han Dawei; Wang Yusan; Wang Juan
2011-01-01
An FPGA-based true random signal generator with adjustable amplitude and exponential distribution of time interval is presented. Since traditional true random number generators (TRNG) are resource costly and difficult to transplant, we employed a method of random number generation based on jitter and phase noise in ring oscillators formed by gates in an FPGA. In order to improve the random characteristics, a combination of two different pseudo-random processing circuits is used for post processing. The effects of the design parameters, such as sample frequency are discussed. Statistical tests indicate that the generator can well simulate the timing behavior of random signals with Poisson distribution. The X-ray CCD signal generator will be used in debugging the CCD readout system of the Low Energy X-ray Instrument onboard the Hard X-ray Modulation Telescope (HXMT). (authors)
Efficient Raman generation in a waveguide: A route to ultrafast quantum random number generation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
England, D. G.; Bustard, P. J.; Moffatt, D. J.; Nunn, J.; Lausten, R.; Sussman, B. J., E-mail: ben.sussman@nrc.ca [National Research Council of Canada, 100 Sussex Drive, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0R6 (Canada)
2014-02-03
The inherent uncertainty in quantum mechanics offers a source of true randomness which can be used to produce unbreakable cryptographic keys. We discuss the development of a high-speed random number generator based on the quantum phase fluctuations in spontaneously initiated stimulated Raman scattering (SISRS). We utilize the tight confinement and long interaction length available in a Potassium Titanyl Phosphate waveguide to generate highly efficient SISRS using nanojoule pulse energies, reducing the high pump power requirements of the previous approaches. We measure the random phase of the Stokes output using a simple interferometric setup to yield quantum random numbers at 145 Mbps.
Quantum random-number generator based on a photon-number-resolving detector
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ren Min; Wu, E; Liang Yan; Jian Yi; Wu Guang; Zeng Heping
2011-01-01
We demonstrated a high-efficiency quantum random number generator which takes inherent advantage of the photon number distribution randomness of a coherent light source. This scheme was realized by comparing the photon flux of consecutive pulses with a photon number resolving detector. The random bit generation rate could reach 2.4 MHz with a system clock of 6.0 MHz, corresponding to a random bit generation efficiency as high as 40%. The random number files passed all the stringent statistical tests.
Secure self-calibrating quantum random-bit generator
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fiorentino, M.; Santori, C.; Spillane, S. M.; Beausoleil, R. G.; Munro, W. J.
2007-01-01
Random-bit generators (RBGs) are key components of a variety of information processing applications ranging from simulations to cryptography. In particular, cryptographic systems require 'strong' RBGs that produce high-entropy bit sequences, but traditional software pseudo-RBGs have very low entropy content and therefore are relatively weak for cryptography. Hardware RBGs yield entropy from chaotic or quantum physical systems and therefore are expected to exhibit high entropy, but in current implementations their exact entropy content is unknown. Here we report a quantum random-bit generator (QRBG) that harvests entropy by measuring single-photon and entangled two-photon polarization states. We introduce and implement a quantum tomographic method to measure a lower bound on the 'min-entropy' of the system, and we employ this value to distill a truly random-bit sequence. This approach is secure: even if an attacker takes control of the source of optical states, a secure random sequence can be distilled
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hua, Xinsheng; Wu, Zongzhi; Lind, Morten
2017-01-01
to calculate likelihood of each MAS. Combining the likelihood of each scenario with a qualitative risk matrix, each major accident scenario is thereby ranked for consideration for detailed consequence analysis. The methodology is successfully highlighted using part of BMA-process for production of hydrogen......Generating and defining Major Accident Scenarios (MAS) are commonly agreed as the key step for quantitative risk assessment (QRA). The aim of the study is to explore the feasibility of using Multilevel Flow Modeling (MFM) methodology to formulating MAS. Traditionally this is usually done based...
The additive congruential random number generator--A special case of a multiple recursive generator
Wikramaratna, Roy S.
2008-07-01
This paper considers an approach to generating uniformly distributed pseudo-random numbers which works well in serial applications but which also appears particularly well-suited for application on parallel processing systems. Additive Congruential Random Number (ACORN) generators are straightforward to implement for arbitrarily large order and modulus; if implemented using integer arithmetic, it becomes possible to generate identical sequences on any machine. Previously published theoretical analysis has demonstrated that a kth order ACORN sequence approximates to being uniformly distributed in up to k dimensions, for any given k. ACORN generators can be constructed to give period lengths exceeding any given number (for example, with period length in excess of 230p, for any given p). Results of empirical tests have demonstrated that, if p is greater than or equal to 2, then the ACORN generator can be used successfully for generating double precision uniform random variates. This paper demonstrates that an ACORN generator is a particular case of a multiple recursive generator (and, therefore, also a special case of a matrix generator). Both these latter approaches have been widely studied, and it is to be hoped that the results given in the present paper will lead to greater confidence in using the ACORN generators.
Superparamagnetic perpendicular magnetic tunnel junctions for true random number generators
Parks, Bradley; Bapna, Mukund; Igbokwe, Julianne; Almasi, Hamid; Wang, Weigang; Majetich, Sara A.
2018-05-01
Superparamagnetic perpendicular magnetic tunnel junctions are fabricated and analyzed for use in random number generators. Time-resolved resistance measurements are used as streams of bits in statistical tests for randomness. Voltage control of the thermal stability enables tuning the average speed of random bit generation up to 70 kHz in a 60 nm diameter device. In its most efficient operating mode, the device generates random bits at an energy cost of 600 fJ/bit. A narrow range of magnetic field tunes the probability of a given state from 0 to 1, offering a means of probabilistic computing.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Tastu, Julija; Pinson, Pierre; Madsen, Henrik
The emphasis in this work is placed on generating space-time trajectories (also referred to as scenarios) of wind power generation. This calls for prediction of multivariate densities describing wind power generation at a number of distributed locations and for a number of successive lead times. ...
Reflection on Migration Scenarios 2G and 3G Mobile Networks to Fourth Generation in Colombia
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sergio A. Sepúlveda-Leiva
2013-11-01
Full Text Available In the development of the following article is an analysis of some of the migration scenarios third generation mobile technologies for fourth generation mobile technologies, in order to select which is the most suitable migration scenario for mobile operators Colombia, taking into account the characteristics of the market and the needs that are more optimally suited for the needs of mobile operators in the country, the whole development of the article is based on operators with own infrastructure is not analyzed migration characteristics of mobile virtual network operators.
Study on random number generator in Monte Carlo code
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Oya, Kentaro; Kitada, Takanori; Tanaka, Shinichi
2011-01-01
The Monte Carlo code uses a sequence of pseudo-random numbers with a random number generator (RNG) to simulate particle histories. A pseudo-random number has its own period depending on its generation method and the period is desired to be long enough not to exceed the period during one Monte Carlo calculation to ensure the correctness especially for a standard deviation of results. The linear congruential generator (LCG) is widely used as Monte Carlo RNG and the period of LCG is not so long by considering the increasing rate of simulation histories in a Monte Carlo calculation according to the remarkable enhancement of computer performance. Recently, many kinds of RNG have been developed and some of their features are better than those of LCG. In this study, we investigate the appropriate RNG in a Monte Carlo code as an alternative to LCG especially for the case of enormous histories. It is found that xorshift has desirable features compared with LCG, and xorshift has a larger period, a comparable speed to generate random numbers, a better randomness, and good applicability to parallel calculation. (author)
Random Item Generation Is Affected by Age
Multani, Namita; Rudzicz, Frank; Wong, Wing Yiu Stephanie; Namasivayam, Aravind Kumar; van Lieshout, Pascal
2016-01-01
Purpose: Random item generation (RIG) involves central executive functioning. Measuring aspects of random sequences can therefore provide a simple method to complement other tools for cognitive assessment. We examine the extent to which RIG relates to specific measures of cognitive function, and whether those measures can be estimated using RIG…
A fast ergodic algorithm for generating ensembles of equilateral random polygons
Varela, R.; Hinson, K.; Arsuaga, J.; Diao, Y.
2009-03-01
Knotted structures are commonly found in circular DNA and along the backbone of certain proteins. In order to properly estimate properties of these three-dimensional structures it is often necessary to generate large ensembles of simulated closed chains (i.e. polygons) of equal edge lengths (such polygons are called equilateral random polygons). However finding efficient algorithms that properly sample the space of equilateral random polygons is a difficult problem. Currently there are no proven algorithms that generate equilateral random polygons with its theoretical distribution. In this paper we propose a method that generates equilateral random polygons in a 'step-wise uniform' way. We prove that this method is ergodic in the sense that any given equilateral random polygon can be generated by this method and we show that the time needed to generate an equilateral random polygon of length n is linear in terms of n. These two properties make this algorithm a big improvement over the existing generating methods. Detailed numerical comparisons of our algorithm with other widely used algorithms are provided.
Experimentally generated randomness certified by the impossibility of superluminal signals.
Bierhorst, Peter; Knill, Emanuel; Glancy, Scott; Zhang, Yanbao; Mink, Alan; Jordan, Stephen; Rommal, Andrea; Liu, Yi-Kai; Christensen, Bradley; Nam, Sae Woo; Stevens, Martin J; Shalm, Lynden K
2018-04-01
From dice to modern electronic circuits, there have been many attempts to build better devices to generate random numbers. Randomness is fundamental to security and cryptographic systems and to safeguarding privacy. A key challenge with random-number generators is that it is hard to ensure that their outputs are unpredictable 1-3 . For a random-number generator based on a physical process, such as a noisy classical system or an elementary quantum measurement, a detailed model that describes the underlying physics is necessary to assert unpredictability. Imperfections in the model compromise the integrity of the device. However, it is possible to exploit the phenomenon of quantum non-locality with a loophole-free Bell test to build a random-number generator that can produce output that is unpredictable to any adversary that is limited only by general physical principles, such as special relativity 1-11 . With recent technological developments, it is now possible to carry out such a loophole-free Bell test 12-14,22 . Here we present certified randomness obtained from a photonic Bell experiment and extract 1,024 random bits that are uniformly distributed to within 10 -12 . These random bits could not have been predicted according to any physical theory that prohibits faster-than-light (superluminal) signalling and that allows independent measurement choices. To certify and quantify the randomness, we describe a protocol that is optimized for devices that are characterized by a low per-trial violation of Bell inequalities. Future random-number generators based on loophole-free Bell tests may have a role in increasing the security and trust of our cryptographic systems and infrastructure.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
K. M. Nazmul Islam
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Increased generation of methane (CH4 from municipal solid wastes (MSW alarms the world to take proper initiative for the sustainable management of MSW, because it is 34 times stronger than carbon dioxide (CO2. Mounting land scarcity issue around the world brands the waste to energy (WtE strategy for MSW management in urban areas as a promising option, because WtE not only reduces the land pressure problem, but also generates electricity, heat, and green jobs. The goal of this study is to evaluate the renewable electricity generation potential and associated carbon reduction of MSW management in Bangladesh using WtE strategies. The study is conducted in two major cities of Bangladesh: Dhaka and Chittagong. Six different WtE scenarios are evaluated consisting of mixed MSW incineration and landfill gas (LFG recovery system. Energy potential of different WtE strategy is assessed using standard energy conversion model and subsequent GHGs emissions models. Scenario A1 results in highest economic and energy potential and net negative GHGs emission. Sensitivity analysis by varying MSW moisture content reveals higher energy potential and less GHGs emissions from MSW possessing low moisture content. The study proposes mixed MSW incineration that could be a potential WtE strategy for renewable electricity generation in Bangladesh.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Stipčević, Mario, E-mail: mario.stipcevic@irb.hr [Photonics and Quantum Optics Research Unit, Center of Excellence for Advanced Materials and Sensing Devices, Ruđer Bošković Institute, Bijenička 54, 10000 Zagreb (Croatia)
2016-03-15
In this work, a new type of elementary logic circuit, named random flip-flop (RFF), is proposed, experimentally realized, and studied. Unlike conventional Boolean logic circuits whose action is deterministic and highly reproducible, the action of a RFF is intentionally made maximally unpredictable and, in the proposed realization, derived from a fundamentally random process of emission and detection of light quanta. We demonstrate novel applications of RFF in randomness preserving frequency division, random frequency synthesis, and random number generation. Possible usages of these applications in the information and communication technology, cryptographic hardware, and testing equipment are discussed.
Persaud, Navindra
2005-01-01
Computer algorithms can only produce seemingly random or pseudorandom numbers whereas certain natural phenomena, such as the decay of radioactive particles, can be utilized to produce truly random numbers. In this study, the ability of humans to generate random numbers was tested in healthy adults. Subjects were simply asked to generate and dictate random numbers. Generated numbers were tested for uniformity, independence and information density. The results suggest that humans can generate random numbers that are uniformly distributed, independent of one another and unpredictable. If humans can generate sequences of random numbers then neural networks or forms of artificial intelligence, which are purported to function in ways essentially the same as the human brain, should also be able to generate sequences of random numbers. Elucidating the precise mechanism by which humans generate random number sequences and the underlying neural substrates may have implications in the cognitive science of decision-making. It is possible that humans use their random-generating neural machinery to make difficult decisions in which all expected outcomes are similar. It is also possible that certain people, perhaps those with neurological or psychiatric impairments, are less able or unable to generate random numbers. If the random-generating neural machinery is employed in decision making its impairment would have profound implications in matters of agency and free will.
Fast random-number generation using a diode laser's frequency noise characteristic
Takamori, Hiroki; Doi, Kohei; Maehara, Shinya; Kawakami, Kohei; Sato, Takashi; Ohkawa, Masashi; Ohdaira, Yasuo
2012-02-01
Random numbers can be classified as either pseudo- or physical-random, in character. Pseudo-random numbers are generated by definite periodicity, so, their usefulness in cryptographic applications is somewhat limited. On the other hand, naturally-generated physical-random numbers have no calculable periodicity, thereby making them ideal for the task. Diode lasers' considerable wideband noise gives them tremendous capacity for generating physical-random numbers, at a high rate of speed. We measured a diode laser's output with a fast photo detector, and evaluated the binary-numbers from the diode laser's frequency noise characteristics. We then identified and evaluated the binary-number-line's statistical properties. We also investigate the possibility that much faster physical-random number parallel-generation is possible, using separate outputs of different optical-path length and character, which we refer to as "coherence collapse".
Properties making a chaotic system a good Pseudo Random Number Generator
Falcioni, Massimo; Palatella, Luigi; Pigolotti, Simone; Vulpiani, Angelo
2005-01-01
We discuss two properties making a deterministic algorithm suitable to generate a pseudo random sequence of numbers: high value of Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy and high-dimensionality. We propose the multi dimensional Anosov symplectic (cat) map as a Pseudo Random Number Generator. We show what chaotic features of this map are useful for generating Pseudo Random Numbers and investigate numerically which of them survive in the discrete version of the map. Testing and comparisons with other generat...
A Repetition Test for Pseudo-Random Number Generators
Gil, Manuel; Gonnet, Gaston H.; Petersen, Wesley P.
2017-01-01
A new statistical test for uniform pseudo-random number generators (PRNGs) is presented. The idea is that a sequence of pseudo-random numbers should have numbers reappear with a certain probability. The expectation time that a repetition occurs provides the metric for the test. For linear congruential generators (LCGs) failure can be shown theoretically. Empirical test results for a number of commonly used PRNGs are reported, showing that some PRNGs considered to have good statistical propert...
Generating functionals for quantum field theories with random potentials
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jain, Mudit; Vanchurin, Vitaly
2016-01-01
We consider generating functionals for computing correlators in quantum field theories with random potentials. Examples of such theories include cosmological systems in context of the string theory landscape (e.g. cosmic inflation) or condensed matter systems with quenched disorder (e.g. spin glass). We use the so-called replica trick to define two different generating functionals for calculating correlators of the quantum fields averaged over a given distribution of random potentials. The first generating functional is appropriate for calculating averaged (in-out) amplitudes and involves a single replica of fields, but the replica limit is taken to an (unphysical) negative one number of fields outside of the path integral. When the number of replicas is doubled the generating functional can also be used for calculating averaged probabilities (squared amplitudes) using the in-in construction. The second generating functional involves an infinite number of replicas, but can be used for calculating both in-out and in-in correlators and the replica limits are taken to only a zero number of fields. We discuss the formalism in details for a single real scalar field, but the generalization to more fields or to different types of fields is straightforward. We work out three examples: one where the mass of scalar field is treated as a random variable and two where the functional form of interactions is random, one described by a Gaussian random field and the other by a Euclidean action in the field configuration space.
Ghersi, Dario; Parakh, Abhishek; Mezei, Mihaly
2017-12-05
Four pseudorandom number generators were compared with a physical, quantum-based random number generator using the NIST suite of statistical tests, which only the quantum-based random number generator could successfully pass. We then measured the effect of the five random number generators on various calculated properties in different Markov-chain Monte Carlo simulations. Two types of systems were tested: conformational sampling of a small molecule in aqueous solution and liquid methanol under constant temperature and pressure. The results show that poor quality pseudorandom number generators produce results that deviate significantly from those obtained with the quantum-based random number generator, particularly in the case of the small molecule in aqueous solution setup. In contrast, the widely used Mersenne Twister pseudorandom generator and a 64-bit Linear Congruential Generator with a scrambler produce results that are statistically indistinguishable from those obtained with the quantum-based random number generator. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Brain potentials index executive functions during random number generation.
Joppich, Gregor; Däuper, Jan; Dengler, Reinhard; Johannes, Sönke; Rodriguez-Fornells, Antoni; Münte, Thomas F
2004-06-01
The generation of random sequences is considered to tax different executive functions. To explore the involvement of these functions further, brain potentials were recorded in 16 healthy young adults while either engaging in random number generation (RNG) by pressing the number keys on a computer keyboard in a random sequence or in ordered number generation (ONG) necessitating key presses in the canonical order. Key presses were paced by an external auditory stimulus to yield either fast (1 press/800 ms) or slow (1 press/1300 ms) sequences in separate runs. Attentional demands of random and ordered tasks were assessed by the introduction of a secondary task (key-press to a target tone). The P3 amplitude to the target tone of this secondary task was reduced during RNG, reflecting the greater consumption of attentional resources during RNG. Moreover, RNG led to a left frontal negativity peaking 140 ms after the onset of the pacing stimulus, whenever the subjects produced a true random response. This negativity could be attributed to the left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and was absent when numbers were repeated. This negativity was interpreted as an index for the inhibition of habitual responses. Finally, in response locked ERPs a negative component was apparent peaking about 50 ms after the key-press that was more prominent during RNG. Source localization suggested a medial frontal source. This effect was tentatively interpreted as a reflection of the greater monitoring demands during random sequence generation.
Post-processing Free Quantum Random Number Generator Based on Avalanche Photodiode Array
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Li Yang; Liao Sheng-Kai; Liang Fu-Tian; Shen Qi; Liang Hao; Peng Cheng-Zhi
2016-01-01
Quantum random number generators adopting single photon detection have been restricted due to the non-negligible dead time of avalanche photodiodes (APDs). We propose a new approach based on an APD array to improve the generation rate of random numbers significantly. This method compares the detectors' responses to consecutive optical pulses and generates the random sequence. We implement a demonstration experiment to show its simplicity, compactness and scalability. The generated numbers are proved to be unbiased, post-processing free, ready to use, and their randomness is verified by using the national institute of standard technology statistical test suite. The random bit generation efficiency is as high as 32.8% and the potential generation rate adopting the 32 × 32 APD array is up to tens of Gbits/s. (paper)
A true random number generator based on mouse movement and chaotic cryptography
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hu Yue; Liao Xiaofeng; Wong, Kwok-wo; Zhou Qing
2009-01-01
True random number generators are in general more secure than pseudo random number generators. In this paper, we propose a novel true random number generator which generates a 256-bit random number by computer mouse movement. It is cheap, convenient and universal for personal computers. To eliminate the effect of similar movement patterns generated by the same user, three chaos-based approaches, namely, discretized 2D chaotic map permutation, spatiotemporal chaos and 'MASK' algorithm, are adopted to post-process the captured mouse movements. Random bits generated by three users are tested using NIST statistical tests. Both the spatiotemporal chaos approach and the 'MASK' algorithm pass the tests successfully. However, the latter has a better performance in terms of efficiency and effectiveness and so is more practical for common personal computer applications.
Truly random dynamics generated by autonomous dynamical systems
González, J. A.; Reyes, L. I.
2001-09-01
We investigate explicit functions that can produce truly random numbers. We use the analytical properties of the explicit functions to show that a certain class of autonomous dynamical systems can generate random dynamics. This dynamics presents fundamental differences with the known chaotic systems. We present real physical systems that can produce this kind of random time-series. Some applications are discussed.
Generating random networks and graphs
Coolen, Ton; Roberts, Ekaterina
2017-01-01
This book supports researchers who need to generate random networks, or who are interested in the theoretical study of random graphs. The coverage includes exponential random graphs (where the targeted probability of each network appearing in the ensemble is specified), growth algorithms (i.e. preferential attachment and the stub-joining configuration model), special constructions (e.g. geometric graphs and Watts Strogatz models) and graphs on structured spaces (e.g. multiplex networks). The presentation aims to be a complete starting point, including details of both theory and implementation, as well as discussions of the main strengths and weaknesses of each approach. It includes extensive references for readers wishing to go further. The material is carefully structured to be accessible to researchers from all disciplines while also containing rigorous mathematical analysis (largely based on the techniques of statistical mechanics) to support those wishing to further develop or implement the theory of rand...
Third generation algae biofuels in Italy by 2030: A scenario analysis using Bayesian networks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gambelli, Danilo; Alberti, Francesca; Solfanelli, Francesco; Vairo, Daniela; Zanoli, Raffaele
2017-01-01
We have analysed the potential for biofuels from microalgae in the Italian biofuels context. This scenario analysis considers alternative pathways for the adoption of biofuels from microalgae by the year 2030. The scenarios were developed using a probabilistic approach based on Bayesian networks, through a structured process for elicitation of expert knowledge. We have identified the most and least favourable scenarios in terms of the expected likelihood for the development of the market of biofuels from microalgae, through which we have focussed on the contribution of economic and policy aspects in the development of the sector. A detailed analysis of the contribution of each variable in the context of the scenarios is also provided. These data represent a starting point for the evaluation of different policy options for the future biofuel market in Italy. The best scenario shows a 75% probability that biofuels from microalgae will exceed 20% of the biofuel market by 2030. This is conditional on the improvement and development of the technological changes and environmental policies, and of the markets for bioenergy and novel foods derived from microalgae. - Highlights: • Scenarios for Third generation biofuels are modelled by Bayesian networks. • Best and worst scenarios for year 2030 are presented. • The role of environmental policy is analysed. • Energy and food-feed markets influence the share of biofuels from micro-algae.
Recommendations and illustrations for the evaluation of photonic random number generators
Hart, Joseph D.; Terashima, Yuta; Uchida, Atsushi; Baumgartner, Gerald B.; Murphy, Thomas E.; Roy, Rajarshi
2017-09-01
The never-ending quest to improve the security of digital information combined with recent improvements in hardware technology has caused the field of random number generation to undergo a fundamental shift from relying solely on pseudo-random algorithms to employing optical entropy sources. Despite these significant advances on the hardware side, commonly used statistical measures and evaluation practices remain ill-suited to understand or quantify the optical entropy that underlies physical random number generation. We review the state of the art in the evaluation of optical random number generation and recommend a new paradigm: quantifying entropy generation and understanding the physical limits of the optical sources of randomness. In order to do this, we advocate for the separation of the physical entropy source from deterministic post-processing in the evaluation of random number generators and for the explicit consideration of the impact of the measurement and digitization process on the rate of entropy production. We present the Cohen-Procaccia estimate of the entropy rate h (𝜖 ,τ ) as one way to do this. In order to provide an illustration of our recommendations, we apply the Cohen-Procaccia estimate as well as the entropy estimates from the new NIST draft standards for physical random number generators to evaluate and compare three common optical entropy sources: single photon time-of-arrival detection, chaotic lasers, and amplified spontaneous emission.
Recommendations and illustrations for the evaluation of photonic random number generators
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Joseph D. Hart
2017-09-01
Full Text Available The never-ending quest to improve the security of digital information combined with recent improvements in hardware technology has caused the field of random number generation to undergo a fundamental shift from relying solely on pseudo-random algorithms to employing optical entropy sources. Despite these significant advances on the hardware side, commonly used statistical measures and evaluation practices remain ill-suited to understand or quantify the optical entropy that underlies physical random number generation. We review the state of the art in the evaluation of optical random number generation and recommend a new paradigm: quantifying entropy generation and understanding the physical limits of the optical sources of randomness. In order to do this, we advocate for the separation of the physical entropy source from deterministic post-processing in the evaluation of random number generators and for the explicit consideration of the impact of the measurement and digitization process on the rate of entropy production. We present the Cohen-Procaccia estimate of the entropy rate h(,τ as one way to do this. In order to provide an illustration of our recommendations, we apply the Cohen-Procaccia estimate as well as the entropy estimates from the new NIST draft standards for physical random number generators to evaluate and compare three common optical entropy sources: single photon time-of-arrival detection, chaotic lasers, and amplified spontaneous emission.
Parallel random number generator for inexpensive configurable hardware cells
Ackermann, J.; Tangen, U.; Bödekker, B.; Breyer, J.; Stoll, E.; McCaskill, J. S.
2001-11-01
A new random number generator ( RNG) adapted to parallel processors has been created. This RNG can be implemented with inexpensive hardware cells. The correlation between neighboring cells is suppressed with smart connections. With such connection structures, sequences of pseudo-random numbers are produced. Numerical tests including a self-avoiding random walk test and the simulation of the order parameter and energy of the 2D Ising model give no evidence for correlation in the pseudo-random sequences. Because the new random number generator has suppressed the correlation between neighboring cells which is usually observed in cellular automaton implementations, it is applicable for extended time simulations. It gives an immense speed-up factor if implemented directly in configurable hardware, and has recently been used for long time simulations of spatially resolved molecular evolution.
A pseudo-random number generator and its spectral test
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wang Lai
1998-01-01
The author introduces a pseudo-random number generator and describes its algorithm and C language implementation. The performance of the generator is tested and compared with some well known LCG generators
Generation of Random Numbers and Parallel Random Number Streams for Monte Carlo Simulations
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
L. Yu. Barash
2012-01-01
Full Text Available Modern methods and libraries for high quality pseudorandom number generation and for generation of parallel random number streams for Monte Carlo simulations are considered. The probability equidistribution property and the parameters when the property holds at dimensions up to logarithm of mesh size are considered for Multiple Recursive Generators.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Chittur Ramaswamy, Parvathy; Deconinck, Geert; Pillai, Jayakrishnan Radhakrishna
2013-01-01
This paper considers hourly reconfiguration of a low voltage distribution network with the objectives of minimizing power loss and voltage deviation. The uncertainty in photovoltaic (PV) generation which in turn will affect the optimum configuration is tackled with the help of scenario analysis. ......-dominated solutions, demonstrating their trade-offs. Finally, the best compromise solution can be selected depending on the decision maker's requirement....
Random generation of RNA secondary structures according to native distributions
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nebel Markus E
2011-10-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Random biological sequences are a topic of great interest in genome analysis since, according to a powerful paradigm, they represent the background noise from which the actual biological information must differentiate. Accordingly, the generation of random sequences has been investigated for a long time. Similarly, random object of a more complicated structure like RNA molecules or proteins are of interest. Results In this article, we present a new general framework for deriving algorithms for the non-uniform random generation of combinatorial objects according to the encoding and probability distribution implied by a stochastic context-free grammar. Briefly, the framework extends on the well-known recursive method for (uniform random generation and uses the popular framework of admissible specifications of combinatorial classes, introducing weighted combinatorial classes to allow for the non-uniform generation by means of unranking. This framework is used to derive an algorithm for the generation of RNA secondary structures of a given fixed size. We address the random generation of these structures according to a realistic distribution obtained from real-life data by using a very detailed context-free grammar (that models the class of RNA secondary structures by distinguishing between all known motifs in RNA structure. Compared to well-known sampling approaches used in several structure prediction tools (such as SFold ours has two major advantages: Firstly, after a preprocessing step in time O(n2 for the computation of all weighted class sizes needed, with our approach a set of m random secondary structures of a given structure size n can be computed in worst-case time complexity Om⋅n⋅ log(n while other algorithms typically have a runtime in O(m⋅n2. Secondly, our approach works with integer arithmetic only which is faster and saves us from all the discomforting details of using floating point arithmetic with
Analysis of a Scenario for Chaotic Quantal Slowing Down of Inspiration
2013-01-01
On exposure to opiates, preparations from rat brain stems have been observed to continue to produce regular expiratory signals, but to fail to produce some inspiratory signals. The numbers of expirations between two successive inspirations form an apparently random sequence. Here, we propose an explanation based on the qualitative theory of dynamical systems. A relatively simple scenario for the dynamics of interaction between the generators of expiratory and inspiratory signals produces pseudo-random behaviour of the type observed. PMID:24040967
Logs Analysis of Adapted Pedagogical Scenarios Generated by a Simulation Serious Game Architecture
Callies, Sophie; Gravel, Mathieu; Beaudry, Eric; Basque, Josianne
2017-01-01
This paper presents an architecture designed for simulation serious games, which automatically generates game-based scenarios adapted to learner's learning progression. We present three central modules of the architecture: (1) the learner model, (2) the adaptation module and (3) the logs module. The learner model estimates the progression of the…
Pseudo-random bit generator based on lag time series
García-Martínez, M.; Campos-Cantón, E.
2014-12-01
In this paper, we present a pseudo-random bit generator (PRBG) based on two lag time series of the logistic map using positive and negative values in the bifurcation parameter. In order to hidden the map used to build the pseudo-random series we have used a delay in the generation of time series. These new series when they are mapped xn against xn+1 present a cloud of points unrelated to the logistic map. Finally, the pseudo-random sequences have been tested with the suite of NIST giving satisfactory results for use in stream ciphers.
A Comparison of Three Random Number Generators for Aircraft Dynamic Modeling Applications
Grauer, Jared A.
2017-01-01
Three random number generators, which produce Gaussian white noise sequences, were compared to assess their suitability in aircraft dynamic modeling applications. The first generator considered was the MATLAB (registered) implementation of the Mersenne-Twister algorithm. The second generator was a website called Random.org, which processes atmospheric noise measured using radios to create the random numbers. The third generator was based on synthesis of the Fourier series, where the random number sequences are constructed from prescribed amplitude and phase spectra. A total of 200 sequences, each having 601 random numbers, for each generator were collected and analyzed in terms of the mean, variance, normality, autocorrelation, and power spectral density. These sequences were then applied to two problems in aircraft dynamic modeling, namely estimating stability and control derivatives from simulated onboard sensor data, and simulating flight in atmospheric turbulence. In general, each random number generator had good performance and is well-suited for aircraft dynamic modeling applications. Specific strengths and weaknesses of each generator are discussed. For Monte Carlo simulation, the Fourier synthesis method is recommended because it most accurately and consistently approximated Gaussian white noise and can be implemented with reasonable computational effort.
Scenario planning for the electricity generation in Indonesia
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rachmatullah, C.; Aye, L.; Fuller, R.J.
2007-01-01
The long-term planning of a future electricity supply system requires data about future demand. Planners who use the conventional planning method forecast future demand by observing past trends or alternatively by developing scenarios and then selecting the scenarios considered to be the most likely to occur. This method, however, fails to include future uncertainties. To consider such uncertainties, the scenario planning method may be used. This study uses this method to devise a long-term electricity supply plan for the Java-Madura-Bali electricity system. It was found that the scenario planning method could save up to US$3.5 billion over a 15-year period of the method was applied right at the beginning of the period. In the case of the Java-Madura-Bali system, which currently has excess installed capacity, the scenario planning method does not provide such large benefits. It was also found that introducing integrated coal gasification combined cycle and advanced gas combined cycle units would reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the Java-Madura-Bali system by approximately 230 million tonnes or 15% compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario over a 15-year planning timeframe. The abatement cost was found to be US$4 per tonne of CO 2 . (author)
Scenario planning for the electricity generation in Indonesia
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rachmatullah, C.; Aye, L.; Fuller, R.J. [The University of Melbourne, Victoria (Australia). Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, International Technologies Centre
2007-04-15
The long-term planning of a future electricity supply system requires data about future demand. Planners who use the conventional planning method forecast future demand by observing past trends or alternatively by developing scenarios and then selecting the scenarios considered to be the most likely to occur. This method, however, fails to include future uncertainties. To consider such uncertainties, the scenario planning method may be used. This study uses this method to devise a long-term electricity supply plan for the Java-Madura-Bali electricity system. It was found that the scenario planning method could save up to US$3.5 billion over a 15-year period of the method was applied right at the beginning of the period. In the case of the Java-Madura-Bali system, which currently has excess installed capacity, the scenario planning method does not provide such large benefits. It was also found that introducing integrated coal gasification combined cycle and advanced gas combined cycle units would reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the Java-Madura-Bali system by approximately 230 million tonnes or 15% compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario over a 15-year planning timeframe. The abatement cost was found to be US$4 per tonne of CO{sub 2}. (author)
A method for generating skewed random numbers using two overlapping uniform distributions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ermak, D.L.; Nasstrom, J.S.
1995-02-01
The objective of this work was to implement and evaluate a method for generating skewed random numbers using a combination of uniform random numbers. The method provides a simple and accurate way of generating skewed random numbers from the specified first three moments without an a priori specification of the probability density function. We describe the procedure for generating skewed random numbers from unifon-n random numbers, and show that it accurately produces random numbers with the desired first three moments over a range of skewness values. We also show that in the limit of zero skewness, the distribution of random numbers is an accurate approximation to the Gaussian probability density function. Future work win use this method to provide skewed random numbers for a Langevin equation model for diffusion in skewed turbulence
The origin of the first and third generation fermion masses in a technicolor scenario
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Doff, A.; Natale, A.A.
2004-01-01
We argue that the masses of the first and third fermionic generations, which are respectively of the order of a few MeV up to a hundred GeV, originate from a dynamical symmetry breaking mechanism leading to masses of the order αμ, where α is a small coupling constant, and μ, in the case of the first fermionic generation, is the scale of the dynamical quark mass (∼250 MeV). For the third fermion generation μ is the value of the dynamical techniquark mass (∼250 GeV). We discuss how this possibility can be implemented in a technicolor scenario, and how the mass of the intermediate generation is generated. (orig.)
Scenarios for the hierarchical evaluation of the global sustainability of electric generator plants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Roldan A, M.C.; Martinez F, M.
2007-01-01
The AHP multi criteria method was applied (Analytic Hierarchy Process-Analytic process of Hierarchization) to evaluate the sustainability in the whole life cycle of the electricity generation technologies (hydroelectric, carboelectric, thermoelectric natural fuel oil, natural gas thermoelectric, geothermal, nucleo electric, wind electric, photo thermic and photovoltaic) with the purpose of offering an useful method in the taking of decisions to impel the sustainable development. Eight scenarios are analyzed. The results in most of the scenarios reflect the benefit of the renewable energy: the hydroelectric energy, photo thermic and wind driven its are those more sustainable. To reach the sustainable development in Mexico, the energy politicians should be more near to the use of the renewable energy. (Author)
Generating variable and random schedules of reinforcement using Microsoft Excel macros.
Bancroft, Stacie L; Bourret, Jason C
2008-01-01
Variable reinforcement schedules are used to arrange the availability of reinforcement following varying response ratios or intervals of time. Random reinforcement schedules are subtypes of variable reinforcement schedules that can be used to arrange the availability of reinforcement at a constant probability across number of responses or time. Generating schedule values for variable and random reinforcement schedules can be difficult. The present article describes the steps necessary to write macros in Microsoft Excel that will generate variable-ratio, variable-interval, variable-time, random-ratio, random-interval, and random-time reinforcement schedule values.
Realization of a Quantum Random Generator Certified with the Kochen-Specker Theorem
Kulikov, Anatoly; Jerger, Markus; Potočnik, Anton; Wallraff, Andreas; Fedorov, Arkady
2017-12-01
Random numbers are required for a variety of applications from secure communications to Monte Carlo simulation. Yet randomness is an asymptotic property, and no output string generated by a physical device can be strictly proven to be random. We report an experimental realization of a quantum random number generator (QRNG) with randomness certified by quantum contextuality and the Kochen-Specker theorem. The certification is not performed in a device-independent way but through a rigorous theoretical proof of each outcome being value indefinite even in the presence of experimental imperfections. The analysis of the generated data confirms the incomputable nature of our QRNG.
Note on Marsaglia\\'s Xorshift Random Number Generators
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Richard P. Brent
2004-08-01
Full Text Available Marsaglia (2003 has described a class of Xorshift random number generators (RNGs with periods 2n - 1 for n = 32, 64, etc. We show that the sequences generated by these RNGs are identical to the sequences generated by certain linear feedback shift register (LFSR generators using "exclusive or" (xor operations on n-bit words, with a recurrence defined by a primitive polynomial of degree n.
Generating local scale land use/cover change scenarios: case studies of high-risk mountain areas
Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas; Boerboom, Luc
2014-05-01
The relationship between land use/cover changes and consequences to human well-being is well acknowledged and has led to higher interest of both researchers and decision makers in driving forces and consequences of such changes. For example, removal of natural vegetation cover or urban expansion resulting in new elements at risk can increase hydro-meteorological risk. This is why it is necessary to study how the land use/cover could evolve in the future. Emphasis should especially be given to areas experiencing, or expecting, high rates of socio-economic change. A suitable approach to address these changes is scenario development; it offers exploring possible futures and the corresponding environmental consequences, and aids decision-making, as it enables to analyse possible options. Scenarios provide a creative methodology to depict possible futures, resulting from existing decisions, based on different assumptions of future socio-economic development. They have been used in various disciplines and on various scales, such as flood risk and soil erosion. Several studies have simulated future scenarios of land use/cover changes at a very high success rate, however usually these approaches are tailor made for specific case study areas and fit to available data. This study presents a multi-step scenario generation framework, which can be transferable to other local scale case study areas, taking into account the case study specific consequences of land use/cover changes. Through the use of experts' and decision-makers' knowledge, we aimed to develop a framework with the following characteristics: (1) it enables development of scenarios that are plausible, (2) it can overcome data inaccessibility, (3) it can address intangible and external driving forces of land use/cover change, and (4) it ensures transferability to other local scale case study areas with different land use/cover change processes and consequences. To achieve this, a set of different methods is applied
GASPRNG: GPU accelerated scalable parallel random number generator library
Gao, Shuang; Peterson, Gregory D.
2013-04-01
Graphics processors represent a promising technology for accelerating computational science applications. Many computational science applications require fast and scalable random number generation with good statistical properties, so they use the Scalable Parallel Random Number Generators library (SPRNG). We present the GPU Accelerated SPRNG library (GASPRNG) to accelerate SPRNG in GPU-based high performance computing systems. GASPRNG includes code for a host CPU and CUDA code for execution on NVIDIA graphics processing units (GPUs) along with a programming interface to support various usage models for pseudorandom numbers and computational science applications executing on the CPU, GPU, or both. This paper describes the implementation approach used to produce high performance and also describes how to use the programming interface. The programming interface allows a user to be able to use GASPRNG the same way as SPRNG on traditional serial or parallel computers as well as to develop tightly coupled programs executing primarily on the GPU. We also describe how to install GASPRNG and use it. To help illustrate linking with GASPRNG, various demonstration codes are included for the different usage models. GASPRNG on a single GPU shows up to 280x speedup over SPRNG on a single CPU core and is able to scale for larger systems in the same manner as SPRNG. Because GASPRNG generates identical streams of pseudorandom numbers as SPRNG, users can be confident about the quality of GASPRNG for scalable computational science applications. Catalogue identifier: AEOI_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEOI_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen’s University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: UTK license. No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 167900 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 1422058 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: C and CUDA. Computer: Any PC or
Investigating conceptions of intentional action by analyzing participant generated scenarios
Skulmowski, Alexander; Bunge, Andreas; Cohen, Bret R.; Kreilkamp, Barbara A. K.; Troxler, Nicole
2015-01-01
We describe and report on results of employing a new method for analyzing lay conceptions of intentional and unintentional action. Instead of asking people for their conceptual intuitions with regard to construed scenarios, we asked our participants to come up with their own scenarios and to explain why these are examples of intentional or unintentional actions. By way of content analysis, we extracted contexts and components that people associated with these action types. Our participants associated unintentional actions predominantly with bad outcomes for all persons involved and linked intentional actions more strongly to positive outcomes, especially concerning the agent. People’s conceptions of intentional action seem to involve more aspects than commonly assumed in philosophical models of intentional action that solely stress the importance of intentions, desires, and beliefs. The additional aspects include decisions and thoughts about the action. In addition, we found that the criteria that participants generated for unintentional actions are not a mere inversion of those used in explanations for intentional actions. Associations between involuntariness and unintentional action seem to be stronger than associations between aspects of voluntariness and intentional action. PMID:26594182
Pseudo-random-number generators and the square site percolation threshold.
Lee, Michael J
2008-09-01
Selected pseudo-random-number generators are applied to a Monte Carlo study of the two-dimensional square-lattice site percolation model. A generator suitable for high precision calculations is identified from an application specific test of randomness. After extended computation and analysis, an ostensibly reliable value of p_{c}=0.59274598(4) is obtained for the percolation threshold.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ackerman, Frank; Fisher, Jeremy
2013-01-01
Water is required for energy supply, and energy is required for water supply, creating problems as demand for both resources grows. We analyze this “water–energy nexus” as it affects long-run electricity planning in the western United States. We develop four scenarios assuming: no new constraints; limits on carbon emissions; limits on water use; and combined carbon and water limits. We evaluate these scenarios through 2100 under a range of carbon and water prices. The carbon-reducing scenarios become cost-effective at carbon prices of about $50–$70 per ton of CO 2 , moderately high but plausible within the century. In contrast, the water-conserving scenarios are not cost-effective until water prices reach thousands of dollars per acre-foot, well beyond foreseeable levels. This is due in part to the modest available water savings: our most and least water-intensive scenarios differ by less than 1% of the region's water consumption. Under our assumptions, Western electricity generation could be reshaped by the cost of carbon emissions, but not by the cost of water, over the course of this century. Both climate change and water scarcity are of critical importance, but only in the former is electricity generation central to the problem and its solutions. - Highlights: • We model long-run electricity supply and demand for the western United States. • We evaluate the costs of carbon-reducing and water-conserving scenarios. • Carbon-reducing scenarios become cost-effective at carbon prices of $50–70 per ton CO 2 . • Water-conserving scenarios are only cost-effective above $4000/acre-foot of water. • Electricity planning is central to climate policy, but much less so to water planning
Matsumoto, Mari; Ohba, Ryuji; Yasuda, Shin-ichi; Uchida, Ken; Tanamoto, Tetsufumi; Fujita, Shinobu
2008-08-01
The demand for random numbers for security applications is increasing. A conventional random number generator using thermal noise can generate unpredictable high-quality random numbers, but the circuit is extremely large because of large amplifier circuit for a small thermal signal. On the other hand, a pseudo-random number generator is small but the quality of randomness is bad. For a small circuit and a high quality of randomness, we purpose a non-stoichiometric SixN metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistor (MOSFET) noise source device. This device generates a very large noise signal without an amplifier circuit. As a result, it is shown that, utilizing a SiN MOSFET, we can attain a compact random number generator with a high generation rate near 1 Mbit/s, which is suitable for almost all security applications.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yue Zhang
2017-11-01
Full Text Available Global warming caused by human activities exacerbates the water cycle, changes precipitation features, such as precipitation amount, intensity and time, and raises uncertainties in water resources. This work uses run-off data obtained using climate change models under representative concentration pathways (RCPs and selects the Yangtze River Basin as the research boundary to evaluate and analyse the vulnerability of hydropower generation in 2016–2050 on the basis of the water evaluation and planning model. Results show that the amount of rainfall during 2016–2050 in the Yangtze River Basin is estimated to increase with fluctuations in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. In the RCP4.5 scenario, hydropower stations exhibit large fluctuations in generating capacity, which present the trend of an increase after a decrease; in the RCP8.5 scenario, the generating capacity of hydropower stations in the Yangtze River Basin presents a steady increase. Over 50% of the generating capacity in the Yangtze River Basin is produced from the Three Gorges Dam and 10 other hydropower stations. Over 90% is generated in eight river basins, including the Jinsha, Ya-lung and Min Rivers. Therefore, climate change may accelerate changes in the Yangtze River Basin and further lead to vulnerability of hydropower generation.
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Crown Consulting, Inc. will investigate and demonstrate methods to enable rapid selection of days for scenario generation in the development and evaluation of Air...
Ultrafast quantum random number generation based on quantum phase fluctuations.
Xu, Feihu; Qi, Bing; Ma, Xiongfeng; Xu, He; Zheng, Haoxuan; Lo, Hoi-Kwong
2012-05-21
A quantum random number generator (QRNG) can generate true randomness by exploiting the fundamental indeterminism of quantum mechanics. Most approaches to QRNG employ single-photon detection technologies and are limited in speed. Here, we experimentally demonstrate an ultrafast QRNG at a rate over 6 Gbits/s based on the quantum phase fluctuations of a laser operating near threshold. Moreover, we consider a potential adversary who has partial knowledge on the raw data and discuss how one can rigorously remove such partial knowledge with postprocessing. We quantify the quantum randomness through min-entropy by modeling our system and employ two randomness extractors--Trevisan's extractor and Toeplitz-hashing--to distill the randomness, which is information-theoretically provable. The simplicity and high-speed of our experimental setup show the feasibility of a robust, low-cost, high-speed QRNG.
Modular Transformations, Order-Chaos Transitions and Pseudo-Random Number Generation
Bonelli, Antonio; Ruffo, Stefano
Successive pairs of pseudo-random numbers generated by standard linear congruential transformations display ordered patterns of parallel lines. We study the "ordered" and "chaotic" distribution of such pairs by solving the eigenvalue problem for two-dimensional modular transformations over integers. We conjecture that the optimal uniformity for pair distribution is obtained when the slope of linear modular eigenspaces takes the value n opt =maxint (p/√ {p-1}), where p is a prime number. We then propose a new generator of pairs of independent pseudo-random numbers, which realizes an optimal uniform distribution (in the "statistical" sense) of points on the unit square (0, 1] × (0, 1]. The method can be easily generalized to the generation of k-tuples of random numbers (with k>2).
Brownian motion properties of optoelectronic random bit generators based on laser chaos.
Li, Pu; Yi, Xiaogang; Liu, Xianglian; Wang, Yuncai; Wang, Yongge
2016-07-11
The nondeterministic property of the optoelectronic random bit generator (RBG) based on laser chaos are experimentally analyzed from two aspects of the central limit theorem and law of iterated logarithm. The random bits are extracted from an optical feedback chaotic laser diode using a multi-bit extraction technique in the electrical domain. Our experimental results demonstrate that the generated random bits have no statistical distance from the Brownian motion, besides that they can pass the state-of-the-art industry-benchmark statistical test suite (NIST SP800-22). All of them give a mathematically provable evidence that the ultrafast random bit generator based on laser chaos can be used as a nondeterministic random bit source.
Using Computer-Generated Random Numbers to Calculate the Lifetime of a Comet.
Danesh, Iraj
1991-01-01
An educational technique to calculate the lifetime of a comet using software-generated random numbers is introduced to undergraduate physiques and astronomy students. Discussed are the generation and eligibility of the required random numbers, background literature related to the problem, and the solution to the problem using random numbers.…
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Koivisto, Matti Juhani; Sørensen, Poul Ejnar; Maule, Petr
scenarios are the baseline scenarios from3. Variable renewable energy generation is analysed using the CorWind tool developed at DTU Wind Energya. In addition to analysing VRE generation, the variability of net load (electricity consumption subtracted by VRE generation) is analysed. Compared to 2014...... consumption). However, there is always some probability that the aggregate VRE generation is zero, so the highest possible net load is determined by peak consumption. This may raise questions considering the incentives to hold enough other generation capacity to meet the rare peak net load. Compared...... to the hourly ramp rates in consumption, the increasing VRE generation increases the ramp rates in the aggregate net load only moderately in the future scenarios; STD of the net load ramp rate in 2050 is expected to be 14% higher than in 2014. However, while ramp rates in consumption happen usually at well...
Analysis of entropy extraction efficiencies in random number generation systems
Wang, Chao; Wang, Shuang; Chen, Wei; Yin, Zhen-Qiang; Han, Zheng-Fu
2016-05-01
Random numbers (RNs) have applications in many areas: lottery games, gambling, computer simulation, and, most importantly, cryptography [N. Gisin et al., Rev. Mod. Phys. 74 (2002) 145]. In cryptography theory, the theoretical security of the system calls for high quality RNs. Therefore, developing methods for producing unpredictable RNs with adequate speed is an attractive topic. Early on, despite the lack of theoretical support, pseudo RNs generated by algorithmic methods performed well and satisfied reasonable statistical requirements. However, as implemented, those pseudorandom sequences were completely determined by mathematical formulas and initial seeds, which cannot introduce extra entropy or information. In these cases, “random” bits are generated that are not at all random. Physical random number generators (RNGs), which, in contrast to algorithmic methods, are based on unpredictable physical random phenomena, have attracted considerable research interest. However, the way that we extract random bits from those physical entropy sources has a large influence on the efficiency and performance of the system. In this manuscript, we will review and discuss several randomness extraction schemes that are based on radiation or photon arrival times. We analyze the robustness, post-processing requirements and, in particular, the extraction efficiency of those methods to aid in the construction of efficient, compact and robust physical RNG systems.
Appendix 2. Guide for Running AgMIP Climate Scenario Generation Tools with R in Windows, Version 2.3
Hudson, Nicholas; Ruane, Alexander Clark
2013-01-01
This Guide explains how to create climate series and climate change scenarios by using the AgMip Climate team's methodology as outlined in the AgMIP Guide for Regional Assessment: Handbook of Methods and Procedures. It details how to: install R and the required packages to run the AgMIP Climate Scenario Generation scripts, and create climate scenarios from CMIP5 GCMs using a 30-year baseline daily weather dataset. The Guide also outlines a workflow that can be modified for application to your own climate data.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nayyar Hussain Mirjat
2018-03-01
Full Text Available The now over a decade-long electricity crisis in Pakistan has adversely affected the socio-economic development of the country. This situation is mainly due to a lack of sustainable energy planning and policy formulation. In this context, energy models can be of great help but only a handful of such efforts have been undertaken in Pakistan. Two key shortcomings pertaining to energy models lead to their low utilization in developing countries. First, the models do not effectively make decisions, but rather provide a set of alternatives based on modeling parameters; and secondly, the complexity of these models is often poorly understood by the decision makers. As such, in this study, the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP methodology of Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM has been used for the sustainability assessment of energy modeling results for long-term electricity planning. The four scenario alternatives developed in the energy modeling effort, Reference (REF, Renewable Energy Technologies (RET, Clean Coal Maximum (CCM and Energy Efficiency and Conservation (EEC, have been ranked using the Expert Choice® tool based on the AHP methodology. The AHP decision support framework of this study revealed the EEC scenario as the most favorable electricity generation scenario followed by the REF, RET and CCM scenarios. Besides that, this study proposes policy recommendations to undertake integrated energy modeling and decision analysis for sustainable energy planning in Pakistan.
EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the con...
GRD: An SPSS extension command for generating random data
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bradley Harding
2014-09-01
Full Text Available To master statistics and data analysis tools, it is necessary to understand a number of concepts, manyof which are quite abstract. For example, sampling from a theoretical distribution can help individuals explore andunderstand randomness. Sampling can also be used to build exercises aimed to help students master statistics. Here, we present GRD (Generator of Random Data, an extension command for SPSS (version 17 and above. With GRD, it is possible to get random data from a given distribution. In its simplest use, GRD will return a set of simulated data from a normal distribution.With subcommands to GRD, it is possible to get data from multiple groups, over multiple repeated measures, and with desired effectsizes. Group sizes can be equal or unequal. With further subcommands, it is possible to sample from any theoretical population, (not simply the normal distribution, introduce non-homogeneous variances,fix or randomize subject effects, etc. Finally, GRD’s generated data are in a format ready to be analyzed.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Martin, G.F.; Hickey, E.E.; Moeller, M.P.; Schultz, D.H.; Bethke, G.W.
1986-03-01
A scenario guidance handbook was prepared to assist emergency planners in developing scenarios for emergency preparedness exercises at nuclear power plants. The handbook provides guidance for the development of the objectives of an exercise, the descriptions of scenario events and responses, and the instructions to the participants. Information concerning implementation of the scenario, critiques and findings, and generation and format of scenario data are also included. Finally, examples of manual calculational techniques for producing radiological data are included as an appendix
Bongio, Marco; Avanzi, Francesco; De Michele, Carlo
2016-08-01
We investigate scenarios of hydroelectric power generation for an Alpine run-of-the-river plant in 2050. To this end, we include a conversion from streamflow to energy in a hydrological model of the basin, and we introduce a set of benchmark climate scenarios to evaluate expected future production. These are a "future-like-present" scenario assuming future precipitation and temperature inputs to be statistically equivalent to those observed during the recent past at the same location, a "warmer-future" scenario, which considers an additional increase in temperature, and a "liquid-only" scenario where only liquid precipitation is admitted. In addition, two IPCC-like climatic scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) are considered. Uncertainty in glaciers' volume is accounted by initializing the hydrological model with two different inventories of glaciers. Ensemble results reveal that 1) an average decrease between -40% and -19% of hydroelectric power generation in 2050 is predicted at the plant considered (with respect to present condition); 2) an average decrease between -20% and -38% of cumulative incoming streamflow volume at the plant is also predicted, again with respect to present condition; 3) these effects are associated with a strong average decrease of the volume of glaciers (between -76% and -96%, depending on the initial value considered). However, Monte Carlo simulations show that results are also prone to high uncertainties. Implications of these results for run-of-the-river plants are discussed.
Statistical downscaling and future scenario generation of temperatures for Pakistan Region
Kazmi, Dildar Hussain; Li, Jianping; Rasul, Ghulam; Tong, Jiang; Ali, Gohar; Cheema, Sohail Babar; Liu, Luliu; Gemmer, Marco; Fischer, Thomas
2015-04-01
Finer climate change information on spatial scale is required for impact studies than that presently provided by global or regional climate models. It is especially true for regions like South Asia with complex topography, coastal or island locations, and the areas of highly heterogeneous land-cover. To deal with the situation, an inexpensive method (statistical downscaling) has been adopted. Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) employed for downscaling of daily minimum and maximum temperature data of 44 national stations for base time (1961-1990) and then the future scenarios generated up to 2099. Observed as well as Predictors (product of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) data were calibrated and tested on individual/multiple basis through linear regression. Future scenario was generated based on HadCM3 daily data for A2 and B2 story lines. The downscaled data has been tested, and it has shown a relatively strong relationship with the observed in comparison to ECHAM5 data. Generally, the southern half of the country is considered vulnerable in terms of increasing temperatures, but the results of this study projects that in future, the northern belt in particular would have a possible threat of increasing tendency in air temperature. Especially, the northern areas (hosting the third largest ice reserves after the Polar Regions), an important feeding source for Indus River, are projected to be vulnerable in terms of increasing temperatures. Consequently, not only the hydro-agricultural sector but also the environmental conditions in the area may be at risk, in future.
Random Generators and Normal Numbers
Bailey, David H.; Crandall, Richard E.
2002-01-01
Pursuant to the authors' previous chaotic-dynamical model for random digits of fundamental constants, we investigate a complementary, statistical picture in which pseudorandom number generators (PRNGs) are central. Some rigorous results are achieved: We establish b-normality for constants of the form $\\sum_i 1/(b^{m_i} c^{n_i})$ for certain sequences $(m_i), (n_i)$ of integers. This work unifies and extends previously known classes of explicit normals. We prove that for coprime $b,c>1$ the...
High-Performance Pseudo-Random Number Generation on Graphics Processing Units
Nandapalan, Nimalan; Brent, Richard P.; Murray, Lawrence M.; Rendell, Alistair
2011-01-01
This work considers the deployment of pseudo-random number generators (PRNGs) on graphics processing units (GPUs), developing an approach based on the xorgens generator to rapidly produce pseudo-random numbers of high statistical quality. The chosen algorithm has configurable state size and period, making it ideal for tuning to the GPU architecture. We present a comparison of both speed and statistical quality with other common parallel, GPU-based PRNGs, demonstrating favourable performance o...
A revision of the subtract-with-borrow random number generators
Sibidanov, Alexei
2017-12-01
The most popular and widely used subtract-with-borrow generator, also known as RANLUX, is reimplemented as a linear congruential generator using large integer arithmetic with the modulus size of 576 bits. Modern computers, as well as the specific structure of the modulus inferred from RANLUX, allow for the development of a fast modular multiplication - the core of the procedure. This was previously believed to be slow and have too high cost in terms of computing resources. Our tests show a significant gain in generation speed which is comparable with other fast, high quality random number generators. An additional feature is the fast skipping of generator states leading to a seeding scheme which guarantees the uniqueness of random number sequences. Licensing provisions: GPLv3 Programming language: C++, C, Assembler
Pseudo-random bit generator based on Chebyshev map
Stoyanov, B. P.
2013-10-01
In this paper, we study a pseudo-random bit generator based on two Chebyshev polynomial maps. The novel derivative algorithm shows perfect statistical properties established by number of statistical tests.
A generator for unique quantum random numbers based on vacuum states
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Gabriel, C.; Wittmann, C.; Sych, D.
2010-01-01
the purity of a continuous-variable quantum vacuum state to generate unique random numbers. We use the intrinsic randomness in measuring the quadratures of a mode in the lowest energy vacuum state, which cannot be correlated to any other state. The simplicity of our source, combined with its verifiably......Random numbers are a valuable component in diverse applications that range from simulations(1) over gambling to cryptography(2,3). The quest for true randomness in these applications has engendered a large variety of different proposals for producing random numbers based on the foundational...... unpredictability of quantum mechanics(4-11). However, most approaches do not consider that a potential adversary could have knowledge about the generated numbers, so the numbers are not verifiably random and unique(12-15). Here we present a simple experimental setup based on homodyne measurements that uses...
Accelerating Pseudo-Random Number Generator for MCNP on GPU
Gong, Chunye; Liu, Jie; Chi, Lihua; Hu, Qingfeng; Deng, Li; Gong, Zhenghu
2010-09-01
Pseudo-random number generators (PRNG) are intensively used in many stochastic algorithms in particle simulations, artificial neural networks and other scientific computation. The PRNG in Monte Carlo N-Particle Transport Code (MCNP) requires long period, high quality, flexible jump and fast enough. In this paper, we implement such a PRNG for MCNP on NVIDIA's GTX200 Graphics Processor Units (GPU) using CUDA programming model. Results shows that 3.80 to 8.10 times speedup are achieved compared with 4 to 6 cores CPUs and more than 679.18 million double precision random numbers can be generated per second on GPU.
Testing random number generators for Monte Carlo applications
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sim, L.H.
1992-01-01
Central to any system for modelling radiation transport phenomena using Monte Carlo techniques is the method by which pseudo random numbers are generated. This method is commonly referred to as the Random Number Generator (RNG). It is usually a computer implemented mathematical algorithm which produces a series of numbers uniformly distributed on the interval [0,1]. If this series satisfies certain statistical tests for randomness, then for practical purposes the pseudo random numbers in the series can be considered to be random. Tests of this nature are important not only for new RNGs but also to test the implementation of known RNG algorithms in different computer environments. Six RNGs have been tested using six statistical tests and one visual test. The statistical tests are the moments, frequency (digit and number), serial, gap, and poker tests. The visual test is a simple two dimensional ordered pair display. In addition the RNGs have been tested in a specific Monte Carlo application. This type of test is often overlooked, however it is important that in addition to satisfactory performance in statistical tests, the RNG be able to perform effectively in the applications of interest. The RNGs tested here are based on a variety of algorithms, including multiplicative and linear congruential, lagged Fibonacci, and combination arithmetic and lagged Fibonacci. The effect of the Bays-Durham shuffling algorithm on the output of a known bad RNG has also been investigated. 18 refs., 11 tabs., 4 figs. of
Programmable pseudo-random detector-pulse-pattern generator
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Putten, R. van der; Nationaal Inst. voor Kernfysica en Hoge-Energiefysica
1990-01-01
This report discusses the design and realization of the digital part of the programmable pseudo-random detector pulse-pattern generator. For the design and realization use has been made of F-TTL and high speed special purpose ic's, in particular FAL's (15 ns). The design possibilities offered by the software for pro-gramming of the FAL's have been utilized as much as possible. In this way counters, registers and a state machine with extended control possibilities have been designed and an advanced 8 channel pulse generator has been developed which is controlled via the VME system bus. the generator possesses an internal clock oscillator of 16 MHZ. The moment when a pulse is generated can be adjusted with a step size of 250 ps. 2000 different periods (time windows) can be stored for generating a pattern. (author). 37 refs.; 6 figs
The Reliability of Randomly Generated Math Curriculum-Based Measurements
Strait, Gerald G.; Smith, Bradley H.; Pender, Carolyn; Malone, Patrick S.; Roberts, Jarod; Hall, John D.
2015-01-01
"Curriculum-Based Measurement" (CBM) is a direct method of academic assessment used to screen and evaluate students' skills and monitor their responses to academic instruction and intervention. Interventioncentral.org offers a math worksheet generator at no cost that creates randomly generated "math curriculum-based measures"…
An investigation of the uniform random number generator
Temple, E. C.
1982-01-01
Most random number generators that are in use today are of the congruential form X(i+1) + AX(i) + C mod M where A, C, and M are nonnegative integers. If C=O, the generator is called the multiplicative type and those for which C/O are called mixed congruential generators. It is easy to see that congruential generators will repeat a sequence of numbers after a maximum of M values have been generated. The number of numbers that a procedure generates before restarting the sequence is called the length or the period of the generator. Generally, it is desirable to make the period as long as possible. A detailed discussion of congruential generators is given. Also, several promising procedures that differ from the multiplicative and mixed procedure are discussed.
Random walk generated by random permutations of {1, 2, 3, ..., n + 1}
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Oshanin, G; Voituriez, R
2004-01-01
We study properties of a non-Markovian random walk X (n) l , l = 0, 1, 2, ..., n, evolving in discrete time l on a one-dimensional lattice of integers, whose moves to the right or to the left are prescribed by the rise-and-descent sequences characterizing random permutations π of [n + 1] = {1, 2, 3, ..., n + 1}. We determine exactly the probability of finding the end-point X n = X (n) n of the trajectory of such a permutation-generated random walk (PGRW) at site X, and show that in the limit n → ∞ it converges to a normal distribution with a smaller, compared to the conventional Polya random walk, diffusion coefficient. We formulate, as well, an auxiliary stochastic process whose distribution is identical to the distribution of the intermediate points X (n) l , l < n, which enables us to obtain the probability measure of different excursions and to define the asymptotic distribution of the number of 'turns' of the PGRW trajectories
Novel pseudo-random number generator based on quantum random walks
Yang, Yu-Guang; Zhao, Qian-Qian
2016-02-01
In this paper, we investigate the potential application of quantum computation for constructing pseudo-random number generators (PRNGs) and further construct a novel PRNG based on quantum random walks (QRWs), a famous quantum computation model. The PRNG merely relies on the equations used in the QRWs, and thus the generation algorithm is simple and the computation speed is fast. The proposed PRNG is subjected to statistical tests such as NIST and successfully passed the test. Compared with the representative PRNG based on quantum chaotic maps (QCM), the present QRWs-based PRNG has some advantages such as better statistical complexity and recurrence. For example, the normalized Shannon entropy and the statistical complexity of the QRWs-based PRNG are 0.999699456771172 and 1.799961178212329e-04 respectively given the number of 8 bits-words, say, 16Mbits. By contrast, the corresponding values of the QCM-based PRNG are 0.999448131481064 and 3.701210794388818e-04 respectively. Thus the statistical complexity and the normalized entropy of the QRWs-based PRNG are closer to 0 and 1 respectively than those of the QCM-based PRNG when the number of words of the analyzed sequence increases. It provides a new clue to construct PRNGs and also extends the applications of quantum computation.
Novel pseudo-random number generator based on quantum random walks.
Yang, Yu-Guang; Zhao, Qian-Qian
2016-02-04
In this paper, we investigate the potential application of quantum computation for constructing pseudo-random number generators (PRNGs) and further construct a novel PRNG based on quantum random walks (QRWs), a famous quantum computation model. The PRNG merely relies on the equations used in the QRWs, and thus the generation algorithm is simple and the computation speed is fast. The proposed PRNG is subjected to statistical tests such as NIST and successfully passed the test. Compared with the representative PRNG based on quantum chaotic maps (QCM), the present QRWs-based PRNG has some advantages such as better statistical complexity and recurrence. For example, the normalized Shannon entropy and the statistical complexity of the QRWs-based PRNG are 0.999699456771172 and 1.799961178212329e-04 respectively given the number of 8 bits-words, say, 16Mbits. By contrast, the corresponding values of the QCM-based PRNG are 0.999448131481064 and 3.701210794388818e-04 respectively. Thus the statistical complexity and the normalized entropy of the QRWs-based PRNG are closer to 0 and 1 respectively than those of the QCM-based PRNG when the number of words of the analyzed sequence increases. It provides a new clue to construct PRNGs and also extends the applications of quantum computation.
Efficient pseudo-random number generation for monte-carlo simulations using graphic processors
Mohanty, Siddhant; Mohanty, A. K.; Carminati, F.
2012-06-01
A hybrid approach based on the combination of three Tausworthe generators and one linear congruential generator for pseudo random number generation for GPU programing as suggested in NVIDIA-CUDA library has been used for MONTE-CARLO sampling. On each GPU thread, a random seed is generated on fly in a simple way using the quick and dirty algorithm where mod operation is not performed explicitly due to unsigned integer overflow. Using this hybrid generator, multivariate correlated sampling based on alias technique has been carried out using both CUDA and OpenCL languages.
Efficient pseudo-random number generation for Monte-Carlo simulations using graphic processors
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mohanty, Siddhant; Mohanty, A K; Carminati, F
2012-01-01
A hybrid approach based on the combination of three Tausworthe generators and one linear congruential generator for pseudo random number generation for GPU programing as suggested in NVIDIA-CUDA library has been used for MONTE-CARLO sampling. On each GPU thread, a random seed is generated on fly in a simple way using the quick and dirty algorithm where mod operation is not performed explicitly due to unsigned integer overflow. Using this hybrid generator, multivariate correlated sampling based on alias technique has been carried out using both CUDA and OpenCL languages.
Tompkins, Adrian Mark; Caporaso, Luca; Biondi, Riccardo; Bell, Jean Pierre
2015-01-01
A new deforestation and land-use change scenario generator model (FOREST-SAGE) is presented that is designed to interface directly with dynamic vegetation models used in latest generation earth system models. The model requires a regional-scale scenario for aggregate land-use change that may be time-dependent, provided by observational studies or by regional land-use change/economic models for future projections. These land-use categories of the observations/economic model are first translated into equivalent plant function types used by the particular vegetation model, and then FOREST-SAGE disaggregates the regional-scale scenario to the local grid-scale of the earth system model using a set of risk-rules based on factors such as proximity to transport networks, distance weighted population density, forest fragmentation and presence of protected areas and logging concessions. These rules presently focus on the conversion of forest to agriculture and pasture use, but could be generalized to other land use change conversions. After introducing the model, an evaluation of its performance is shown for the land-cover changes that have occurred in the Central African Basin from 2001–2010 using retrievals from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Vegetation Continuous Field data. The model is able to broadly reproduce the spatial patterns of forest cover change observed by MODIS, and the use of the local-scale risk factors enables FOREST-SAGE to improve land use change patterns considerably relative to benchmark scenarios used in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project integrations. The uncertainty to the various risk factors is investigated using an ensemble of investigations, and it is shown that the model is sensitive to the population density, forest fragmentation and reforestation factors specified. PMID:26394392
A novel approach to generate random surface thermal loads in piping
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Costa Garrido, Oriol, E-mail: oriol.costa@ijs.si; El Shawish, Samir; Cizelj, Leon
2014-07-01
Highlights: • Approach for generating continuous and time-dependent random thermal fields. • Temperature fields simulate fluid mixing thermal loads at fluid–wall interface. • Through plane-wave decomposition, experimental temperature statistics are reproduced. • Validation of the approach with a case study from literature. • Random surface thermal loads generation for future thermal fatigue analyses of piping. - Abstract: There is a need to perform three-dimensional mechanical analyses of pipes, subjected to complex thermo-mechanical loadings such as the ones evolving from turbulent fluid mixing in a T-junction. A novel approach is proposed in this paper for fast and reliable generation of random thermal loads at the pipe surface. The resultant continuous and time-dependent temperature fields simulate the fluid mixing thermal loads at the fluid–wall interface. The approach is based on reproducing discrete fluid temperature statistics, from experimental readings or computational fluid dynamic simulation's results, at interface locations through plane-wave decomposition of temperature fluctuations. The obtained random thermal fields contain large scale instabilities such as cold and hot spots traveling at flow velocities. These low frequency instabilities are believed to be among the major causes of the thermal fatigue in T-junction configurations. The case study found in the literature has been used to demonstrate the generation of random surface thermal loads. The thermal fields generated with the proposed approach are statistically equivalent (within the first two moments) to those from CFD simulations results of similar characteristics. The fields maintain the input data at field locations for a large set of parameters used to generate the thermal loads. This feature will be of great advantage in future sensitivity fatigue analyses of three-dimensional pipe structures.
A novel approach to generate random surface thermal loads in piping
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Costa Garrido, Oriol; El Shawish, Samir; Cizelj, Leon
2014-01-01
Highlights: • Approach for generating continuous and time-dependent random thermal fields. • Temperature fields simulate fluid mixing thermal loads at fluid–wall interface. • Through plane-wave decomposition, experimental temperature statistics are reproduced. • Validation of the approach with a case study from literature. • Random surface thermal loads generation for future thermal fatigue analyses of piping. - Abstract: There is a need to perform three-dimensional mechanical analyses of pipes, subjected to complex thermo-mechanical loadings such as the ones evolving from turbulent fluid mixing in a T-junction. A novel approach is proposed in this paper for fast and reliable generation of random thermal loads at the pipe surface. The resultant continuous and time-dependent temperature fields simulate the fluid mixing thermal loads at the fluid–wall interface. The approach is based on reproducing discrete fluid temperature statistics, from experimental readings or computational fluid dynamic simulation's results, at interface locations through plane-wave decomposition of temperature fluctuations. The obtained random thermal fields contain large scale instabilities such as cold and hot spots traveling at flow velocities. These low frequency instabilities are believed to be among the major causes of the thermal fatigue in T-junction configurations. The case study found in the literature has been used to demonstrate the generation of random surface thermal loads. The thermal fields generated with the proposed approach are statistically equivalent (within the first two moments) to those from CFD simulations results of similar characteristics. The fields maintain the input data at field locations for a large set of parameters used to generate the thermal loads. This feature will be of great advantage in future sensitivity fatigue analyses of three-dimensional pipe structures
A self-consistent turbulence generated scenario for L-H transition
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhang, Y.Z.; Mahajan, S.M.
1992-10-01
The turbulence-induced ion banana polarization current associated with steep ion temperature gradients is explored as a possible mechanism for generating poloidal momentum at the tokamak edge. In the light of a recently developed two-dimensional turbulence theory, one can obtain a simple closed expression relating this current (determined by turbulence levels) to the derivatives of the poloidal rotation speed. A self-consistent system, then, emerges, if we balance the turbulence-induced poloidal momentum with that dissipated by viscosity. Under suitable conditions this system may show a bifurcation controlled by a parameter dependent on temperature gradients. Both the bifurcation point, and the shear layer width are predicted for a prescribed flow in terms of a scale characterizing the nonlinearity of viscosity. The crucial relevance of the flow parity with the turbulence scenario is analyzed
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Flores Alsina, Xavier; Saagi, Ramesh; Lindblom, Erik Ulfson
2014-01-01
The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the full-scale feasibility of the phenomenological dynamic influent pollutant disturbance scenario generator (DIPDSG) that was originally used to create the influent data of the International Water Association (IWA) Benchmark Simulation Model No. 2 (BSM...... rainfall patterns (climate change) or influent biodegradability (process uncertainty) on the generated time series; 2) a demonstration of how to reduce the cost/workload of measuring campaigns by filling the gaps due to missing data in the influent profiles; and, 3) a critical discussion of the presented...
The random signal generator of imitated nuclear radiation pulse
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Li Dongcang; Yang Lei; Yuan Shulin; Yang Yinghui; Zang Fujia
2007-01-01
Based in pseudo-random uniformity number, it produces random numbers of Gaussian distribution and exponential distribution by arithmetic. The hardware is the single-chip microcomputer of 89C51. Program language makes use of Keil C. The output pulse amplitude is Gaussian distribution, exponential distribution or uniformity distribution. Likewise, it has two mode or upwards two. The time alternation of output pulse is both periodic and exponential distribution. The generator has achieved output control of multi-mode distribution, imitated random characteristic of nuclear pulse in amplitude and in time. (authors)
DNA based random key generation and management for OTP encryption.
Zhang, Yunpeng; Liu, Xin; Sun, Manhui
2017-09-01
One-time pad (OTP) is a principle of key generation applied to the stream ciphering method which offers total privacy. The OTP encryption scheme has proved to be unbreakable in theory, but difficult to realize in practical applications. Because OTP encryption specially requires the absolute randomness of the key, its development has suffered from dense constraints. DNA cryptography is a new and promising technology in the field of information security. DNA chromosomes storing capabilities can be used as one-time pad structures with pseudo-random number generation and indexing in order to encrypt the plaintext messages. In this paper, we present a feasible solution to the OTP symmetric key generation and transmission problem with DNA at the molecular level. Through recombinant DNA technology, by using only sender-receiver known restriction enzymes to combine the secure key represented by DNA sequence and the T vector, we generate the DNA bio-hiding secure key and then place the recombinant plasmid in implanted bacteria for secure key transmission. The designed bio experiments and simulation results show that the security of the transmission of the key is further improved and the environmental requirements of key transmission are reduced. Analysis has demonstrated that the proposed DNA-based random key generation and management solutions are marked by high security and usability. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Random number generation based on digital differential chaos
Zidan, Mohammed A.; Radwan, Ahmed G.; Salama, Khaled N.
2012-01-01
In this paper, we present a fully digital differential chaos based random number generator. The output of the digital circuit is proved to be chaotic by calculating the output time series maximum Lyapunov exponent. We introduce a new post processing
Random number generators in support of Monte Carlo problems in physics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dyadkin, I.G.
1993-01-01
The ability to support a modern users' expectations of random number generators to solve problems in physics is analyzed. The capabilities of the newest concepts and the old pseudo-random algorithms are compared. The author is in favor of multiplicative generators. Due to the 64-bit arithmetic of a modern PC, multiplicative generators have a sufficient number of periods (up to 2 62 ) and are quicker to generate and to govern independent sequences for parallel processing. In addition they are able to replicate sub-sequences (without storing their seeds) for each standard trial in any code and to simulate spatial and planar directions and EXP(-x) distributions often needed as ''bricks'' for simulating events in physics. Hundreds of multipliers for multiplicative generators have been tabulated and tested, and the required speeds have been obtained. (author)
Semi-device-independent random-number expansion without entanglement
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Li Hongwei; Yin Zhenqiang; Wu Yuchun; Zou Xubo; Wang Shuang; Chen Wei; Guo Guangcan; Han Zhengfu
2011-01-01
By testing the classical correlation violation between two systems, true random numbers can be generated and certified without applying classical statistical method. In this work, we propose a true random-number expansion protocol without entanglement, where the randomness can be guaranteed only by the two-dimensional quantum witness violation. Furthermore, we only assume that the dimensionality of the system used in the protocol has a tight bound, and the whole protocol can be regarded as a semi-device-independent black-box scenario. Compared with the device-independent random-number expansion protocol based on entanglement, our protocol is much easier to implement and test.
Quantum random number generator based on quantum nature of vacuum fluctuations
Ivanova, A. E.; Chivilikhin, S. A.; Gleim, A. V.
2017-11-01
Quantum random number generator (QRNG) allows obtaining true random bit sequences. In QRNG based on quantum nature of vacuum, optical beam splitter with two inputs and two outputs is normally used. We compare mathematical descriptions of spatial beam splitter and fiber Y-splitter in the quantum model for QRNG, based on homodyne detection. These descriptions were identical, that allows to use fiber Y-splitters in practical QRNG schemes, simplifying the setup. Also we receive relations between the input radiation and the resulting differential current in homodyne detector. We experimentally demonstrate possibility of true random bits generation by using QRNG based on homodyne detection with Y-splitter.
Random number generation based on digital differential chaos
Zidan, Mohammed A.
2012-07-29
In this paper, we present a fully digital differential chaos based random number generator. The output of the digital circuit is proved to be chaotic by calculating the output time series maximum Lyapunov exponent. We introduce a new post processing technique to improve the distribution and statistical properties of the generated data. The post-processed output passes the NIST Sp. 800-22 statistical tests. The system is written in Verilog VHDL and realized on Xilinx Virtex® FPGA. The generator can fit into a very small area and have a maximum throughput of 2.1 Gb/s.
Climate change scenario data for the national parks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Scott, D.
2003-01-01
This report presents daily scenario data obtained from monthly time scale climate change scenarios. The scenarios were applied to a stochastic weather generator, a statistical tool that simulates daily weather data for a range of climates at a particular location. The weather generators simulate weather that is statistically similar to observed climate data from climate stations. They can also generate daily scenario data for monthly time scales. This low cost computational method offers site-specific, multi-year climate change scenarios at a daily temporal level. The data is useful for situations that rely on climate thresholds such as forest fire season, drought conditions, or recreational season length. Data sets for temperature, precipitation and frost days was provided for 3 national parks for comparative evaluations. Daily scenarios for other parks can be derived using global climate model (GCM) output data through the Long Ashton Research Station (LARS) weather generator program. tabs
An empirical test of pseudo random number generators by means of an exponential decaying process
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Coronel B, H.F.; Hernandez M, A.R.; Jimenez M, M.A.; Mora F, L.E.
2007-01-01
Empirical tests for pseudo random number generators based on the use of processes or physical models have been successfully used and are considered as complementary to theoretical tests of randomness. In this work a statistical methodology for evaluating the quality of pseudo random number generators is presented. The method is illustrated in the context of the so-called exponential decay process, using some pseudo random number generators commonly used in physics. (Author)
Pseudo-Random Number Generators for Vector Processors and Multicore Processors
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fog, Agner
2015-01-01
Large scale Monte Carlo applications need a good pseudo-random number generator capable of utilizing both the vector processing capabilities and multiprocessing capabilities of modern computers in order to get the maximum performance. The requirements for such a generator are discussed. New ways...
The generation of 68 Gbps quantum random number by measuring laser phase fluctuations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nie, You-Qi; Liu, Yang; Zhang, Jun; Pan, Jian-Wei; Huang, Leilei; Payne, Frank
2015-01-01
The speed of a quantum random number generator is essential for practical applications, such as high-speed quantum key distribution systems. Here, we push the speed of a quantum random number generator to 68 Gbps by operating a laser around its threshold level. To achieve the rate, not only high-speed photodetector and high sampling rate are needed but also a very stable interferometer is required. A practical interferometer with active feedback instead of common temperature control is developed to meet the requirement of stability. Phase fluctuations of the laser are measured by the interferometer with a photodetector and then digitalized to raw random numbers with a rate of 80 Gbps. The min-entropy of the raw data is evaluated by modeling the system and is used to quantify the quantum randomness of the raw data. The bias of the raw data caused by other signals, such as classical and detection noises, can be removed by Toeplitz-matrix hashing randomness extraction. The final random numbers can pass through the standard randomness tests. Our demonstration shows that high-speed quantum random number generators are ready for practical usage
True random number generation from mobile telephone photo based on chaotic cryptography
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhao Liang; Liao Xiaofeng; Xiao Di; Xiang Tao; Zhou Qing; Duan Shukai
2009-01-01
A cheap, convenient and universal TRNG based on mobile telephone photo for producing random bit sequence is proposed. To settle the problem of sequential pixels and comparability, three chaos-based approaches are applied to post-process the generated binary image. The random numbers produced by three users are tested using US NIST RNG statistical test software. The experimental results indicate that the Arnold cat map is the fastest way to generate a random bit sequence and can be accepted on general PC. The 'MASK' algorithm also performs well. Finally, comparing with the TRNG of Hu et al. [Hu Y, Liao X, Wong KW, Zhou Q. A true random number generator based on mouse movement and chaotic cryptography. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 2007. doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2007.10.022] which is presented by Hu et al., many merits of the proposed TRNG in this paper has been found.
On the design of henon and logistic map-based random number generator
Magfirawaty; Suryadi, M. T.; Ramli, Kalamullah
2017-10-01
The key sequence is one of the main elements in the cryptosystem. True Random Number Generators (TRNG) method is one of the approaches to generating the key sequence. The randomness source of the TRNG divided into three main groups, i.e. electrical noise based, jitter based and chaos based. The chaos based utilizes a non-linear dynamic system (continuous time or discrete time) as an entropy source. In this study, a new design of TRNG based on discrete time chaotic system is proposed, which is then simulated in LabVIEW. The principle of the design consists of combining 2D and 1D chaotic systems. A mathematical model is implemented for numerical simulations. We used comparator process as a harvester method to obtain the series of random bits. Without any post processing, the proposed design generated random bit sequence with high entropy value and passed all NIST 800.22 statistical tests.
Problems with the random number generator RANF implemented on the CDC cyber 205
Kalle, Claus; Wansleben, Stephan
1984-10-01
We show that using RANF may lead to wrong results when lattice models are simulated by Monte Carlo methods. We present a shift-register sequence random number generator which generates two random numbers per cycle on a two pipe CDC Cyber 205.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dongfang Li
2015-10-01
Full Text Available Random number generators (RNG play an important role in many sensor network systems and applications, such as those requiring secure and robust communications. In this paper, we develop a high-security and high-throughput hardware true random number generator, called PUFKEY, which consists of two kinds of physical unclonable function (PUF elements. Combined with a conditioning algorithm, true random seeds are extracted from the noise on the start-up pattern of SRAM memories. These true random seeds contain full entropy. Then, the true random seeds are used as the input for a non-deterministic hardware RNG to generate a stream of true random bits with a throughput as high as 803 Mbps. The experimental results show that the bitstream generated by the proposed PUFKEY can pass all standard national institute of standards and technology (NIST randomness tests and is resilient to a wide range of security attacks.
Li, Dongfang; Lu, Zhaojun; Zou, Xuecheng; Liu, Zhenglin
2015-10-16
Random number generators (RNG) play an important role in many sensor network systems and applications, such as those requiring secure and robust communications. In this paper, we develop a high-security and high-throughput hardware true random number generator, called PUFKEY, which consists of two kinds of physical unclonable function (PUF) elements. Combined with a conditioning algorithm, true random seeds are extracted from the noise on the start-up pattern of SRAM memories. These true random seeds contain full entropy. Then, the true random seeds are used as the input for a non-deterministic hardware RNG to generate a stream of true random bits with a throughput as high as 803 Mbps. The experimental results show that the bitstream generated by the proposed PUFKEY can pass all standard national institute of standards and technology (NIST) randomness tests and is resilient to a wide range of security attacks.
Power generation scenarios for Nigeria: An environmental and cost assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gujba, H.; Mulugetta, Y.; Azapagic, A.
2011-01-01
Exploratory scenarios for the power sector in Nigeria are analysed in this paper using possible pathways within the Nigerian context and then compared against the Government's power expansion plan in the short to medium term. They include two fossil-fuel (FF and CCGT) and two sustainable-development-driven scenarios (SD1 and SD2). The results from the FF scenarios indicate this is the preferred outcome if the aim is to expand electricity access at the lowest capital costs. However, the annual costs and environmental impacts increase significantly as a consequence. The SD1 scenario, characterised by increased penetration of renewables, leads to a reduction of a wide range of environmental impacts while increasing the annual costs slightly. The SD2 scenario, also with an increased share of renewables, is preferred if the aim is to reduce GHG emissions; however, this comes at an increased annual cost. Both the SD1 and SD2 scenarios also show significant increases in the capital investment compared to the Government's plans. These results can be used to help inform future policy in the Nigerian electricity sector by showing explicitly the range of possible trade-offs between environmental impacts and economic costs both in the short and long terms. - Research Highlights: →The power sector in Nigeria is set to grow significantly in near future. →Power sector scenarios are constructed and studied using LCA and economic analysis methods and then compared against the Government's plans. →These include two fossil-fuel and two sustainable-development-driven scenarios. →The results explicitly show the trade-offs between environmental impacts and costs. →Following the fossil fuel paths will reduce capital costs but increase environmental impacts. The renewable energy paths will reduce some environmental impacts but increase the capital costs.
A fast random number generator for the Intel Paragon supercomputer
Gutbrod, F.
1995-06-01
A pseudo-random number generator is presented which makes optimal use of the architecture of the i860-microprocessor and which is expected to have a very long period. It is therefore a good candidate for use on the parallel supercomputer Paragon XP. In the assembler version, it needs 6.4 cycles for a real∗4 random number. There is a FORTRAN routine which yields identical numbers up to rare and minor rounding discrepancies, and it needs 28 cycles. The FORTRAN performance on other microprocessors is somewhat better. Arguments for the quality of the generator and some numerical tests are given.
A Bidirectional Generalized Synchronization Theorem-Based Chaotic Pseudo-random Number Generator
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Han Shuangshuang
2013-07-01
Full Text Available Based on a bidirectional generalized synchronization theorem for discrete chaos system, this paper introduces a new 5-dimensional bidirectional generalized chaos synchronization system (BGCSDS, whose prototype is a novel chaotic system introduced in [12]. Numerical simulation showed that two pair variables of the BGCSDS achieve generalized chaos synchronization via a transform H.A chaos-based pseudo-random number generator (CPNG was designed by the new BGCSDS. Using the FIPS-140-2 tests issued by the National Institute of Standard and Technology (NIST verified the randomness of the 1000 binary number sequences generated via the CPNG and the RC4 algorithm respectively. The results showed that all the tested sequences passed the FIPS-140-2 tests. The confidence interval analysis showed the statistical properties of the randomness of the sequences generated via the CPNG and the RC4 algorithm do not have significant differences.
Random number generators tested on quantum Monte Carlo simulations.
Hongo, Kenta; Maezono, Ryo; Miura, Kenichi
2010-08-01
We have tested and compared several (pseudo) random number generators (RNGs) applied to a practical application, ground state energy calculations of molecules using variational and diffusion Monte Carlo metheds. A new multiple recursive generator with 8th-order recursion (MRG8) and the Mersenne twister generator (MT19937) are tested and compared with the RANLUX generator with five luxury levels (RANLUX-[0-4]). Both MRG8 and MT19937 are proven to give the same total energy as that evaluated with RANLUX-4 (highest luxury level) within the statistical error bars with less computational cost to generate the sequence. We also tested the notorious implementation of linear congruential generator (LCG), RANDU, for comparison. (c) 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Quantum random bit generation using energy fluctuations in stimulated Raman scattering.
Bustard, Philip J; England, Duncan G; Nunn, Josh; Moffatt, Doug; Spanner, Michael; Lausten, Rune; Sussman, Benjamin J
2013-12-02
Random number sequences are a critical resource in modern information processing systems, with applications in cryptography, numerical simulation, and data sampling. We introduce a quantum random number generator based on the measurement of pulse energy quantum fluctuations in Stokes light generated by spontaneously-initiated stimulated Raman scattering. Bright Stokes pulse energy fluctuations up to five times the mean energy are measured with fast photodiodes and converted to unbiased random binary strings. Since the pulse energy is a continuous variable, multiple bits can be extracted from a single measurement. Our approach can be generalized to a wide range of Raman active materials; here we demonstrate a prototype using the optical phonon line in bulk diamond.
Using pseudo-random number generator for making iterative algorithms of hashing data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ivanov, M.A.; Vasil'ev, N.P.; Kozyrskij, B.L.
2014-01-01
The method of stochastic data transformation made for usage in cryptographic methods of information protection has been analyzed. The authors prove the usage of cryptographically strong pseudo-random number generators as a basis for Sponge construction. This means that the analysis of the quality of the known methods and tools for assessing the statistical security of pseudo-random number generators can be used effectively [ru
Radioactive waste assessment using 'minimum waste generation' scenario - summary report March 1984
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Richardson, J.A.; Goodill, D.R.; Tymons, B.J.
1984-11-01
This report describes an assessment of radioactive waste management arisings from a defined nuclear power generation - Scheme 1. Scheme 1 assumes a minimum waste generation scenario with raw waste arisings from 3 main groups; (i) existing and committed commercial reactors; (ii) fuel reprocessing plants, (iii) research, industry and medicine. No decommissioning wastes are considered except for arisings from the final fuel cores from decommissioned reactors. The study uses the SIMULATION2 code which models waste material flows through the system. With a knowledge of the accumulations and average production rates of the raw wastes and their isotopic compositions (or total activities), the rates at which conditioned wastes become available for transportation and disposal are calculated, with specific activity levels. The data bases for the inventory calculations and the assumptions concerning future operation of nuclear facilities were those current in 1983. Both the inventory data and plans for the future of existing nuclear installations have been updated since these calculations were completed. Therefore the results from this assessment do not represent the most up-to-date information available. The report does, however, illustrate the methodology of assessment and indicates the type of information that can be generated. (author)
Intelligent Testing of Traffic Light Programs: Validation in Smart Mobility Scenarios
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Javier Ferrer
2016-01-01
Full Text Available In smart cities, the use of intelligent automatic techniques to find efficient cycle programs of traffic lights is becoming an innovative front for traffic flow management. However, this automatic programming of traffic lights requires a validation process of the generated solutions, since they can affect the mobility (and security of millions of citizens. In this paper, we propose a validation strategy based on genetic algorithms and feature models for the automatic generation of different traffic scenarios checking the robustness of traffic light cycle programs. We have concentrated on an extensive urban area in the city of Malaga (in Spain, in which we validate a set of candidate cycle programs generated by means of four optimization algorithms: Particle Swarm Optimization for Traffic Lights, Differential Evolution for Traffic Lights, random search, and Sumo Cycle Program Generator. We can test the cycles of traffic lights considering the different states of the city, weather, congestion, driver expertise, vehicle’s features, and so forth, but prioritizing the most relevant scenarios among a large and varied set of them. The improvement achieved in solution quality is remarkable, especially for CO2 emissions, in which we have obtained a reduction of 126.99% compared with the experts’ solutions.
Probabilistic generation of random networks taking into account information on motifs occurrence.
Bois, Frederic Y; Gayraud, Ghislaine
2015-01-01
Because of the huge number of graphs possible even with a small number of nodes, inference on network structure is known to be a challenging problem. Generating large random directed graphs with prescribed probabilities of occurrences of some meaningful patterns (motifs) is also difficult. We show how to generate such random graphs according to a formal probabilistic representation, using fast Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to sample them. As an illustration, we generate realistic graphs with several hundred nodes mimicking a gene transcription interaction network in Escherichia coli.
Das, Suman; Sadique Uz Zaman, J. K. M.; Ghosh, Ranjan
2016-06-01
In Advanced Encryption Standard (AES), the standard S-Box is conventionally generated by using a particular irreducible polynomial {11B} in GF(28) as the modulus and a particular additive constant polynomial {63} in GF(2), though it can be generated by many other polynomials. In this paper, it has been shown that it is possible to generate secured AES S-Boxes by using some other selected modulus and additive polynomials and also can be generated randomly, using a PRNG like BBS. A comparative study has been made on the randomness of corresponding AES ciphertexts generated, using these S-Boxes, by the NIST Test Suite coded for this paper. It has been found that besides using the standard one, other moduli and additive constants are also able to generate equally or better random ciphertexts; the same is true for random S-Boxes also. As these new types of S-Boxes are user-defined, hence unknown, they are able to prevent linear and differential cryptanalysis. Moreover, they act as additional key-inputs to AES, thus increasing the key-space.
ACORN—A new method for generating sequences of uniformly distributed Pseudo-random Numbers
Wikramaratna, R. S.
1989-07-01
A new family of pseudo-random number generators, the ACORN ( additive congruential random number) generators, is proposed. The resulting numbers are distributed uniformly in the interval [0, 1). The ACORN generators are defined recursively, and the ( k + 1)th order generator is easily derived from the kth order generator. Some theorems concerning the period length are presented and compared with existing results for linear congruential generators. A range of statistical tests are applied to the ACORN generators, and their performance is compared with that of the linear congruential generators and the Chebyshev generators. The tests show the ACORN generators to be statistically superior to the Chebyshev generators, while being statistically similar to the linear congruential generators. However, the ACORN generators execute faster than linear congruential generators for the same statistical faithfulness. The main advantages of the ACORN generator are speed of execution, long period length, and simplicity of coding.
An On-Demand Optical Quantum Random Number Generator with In-Future Action and Ultra-Fast Response.
Stipčević, Mario; Ursin, Rupert
2015-06-09
Random numbers are essential for our modern information based society e.g. in cryptography. Unlike frequently used pseudo-random generators, physical random number generators do not depend on complex algorithms but rather on a physical process to provide true randomness. Quantum random number generators (QRNG) do rely on a process, which can be described by a probabilistic theory only, even in principle. Here we present a conceptually simple implementation, which offers a 100% efficiency of producing a random bit upon a request and simultaneously exhibits an ultra low latency. A careful technical and statistical analysis demonstrates its robustness against imperfections of the actual implemented technology and enables to quickly estimate randomness of very long sequences. Generated random numbers pass standard statistical tests without any post-processing. The setup described, as well as the theory presented here, demonstrate the maturity and overall understanding of the technology.
Ultra-fast quantum randomness generation by accelerated phase diffusion in a pulsed laser diode.
Abellán, C; Amaya, W; Jofre, M; Curty, M; Acín, A; Capmany, J; Pruneri, V; Mitchell, M W
2014-01-27
We demonstrate a high bit-rate quantum random number generator by interferometric detection of phase diffusion in a gain-switched DFB laser diode. Gain switching at few-GHz frequencies produces a train of bright pulses with nearly equal amplitudes and random phases. An unbalanced Mach-Zehnder interferometer is used to interfere subsequent pulses and thereby generate strong random-amplitude pulses, which are detected and digitized to produce a high-rate random bit string. Using established models of semiconductor laser field dynamics, we predict a regime of high visibility interference and nearly complete vacuum-fluctuation-induced phase diffusion between pulses. These are confirmed by measurement of pulse power statistics at the output of the interferometer. Using a 5.825 GHz excitation rate and 14-bit digitization, we observe 43 Gbps quantum randomness generation.
The once-through mode of steam generator reflux condensation in loss of coolant accident scenarios
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Liao, Y.; Guentay, S.; Suckow, D.
2009-01-01
The once-through mode of steam generator reflux condensation in the presence of noncondensable gases and/or aerosols for LOCA scenarios is introduced. This phenomenon is planned to be investigated at Paul Scherrer Institute in the ARTIST/RFLX experimental program. The plausible accident scenarios associated with the once-through reflux condensation are analyzed with MELCOR to study the safety significance and the boundary conditions of this phenomenon. This work presents the recent PSI experimental and analytical work on reflux condensation: the progress of modification to the ARTIST test facility for the purpose to study reflux condensation, and the analytical model for the once-through reflux condensation in the presence of noncondensable gas using the heat and mass transfer analogy approach. Future experimental and analytical work on reflux condensation is also outlined. (author)
On the Periods of the {ranshi} Random Number Generator
Gutbrod, F.
The stochastic properties of the pseudo-random number generator {ranshi} are discussed, with emphasis on the average period. Within a factor 2 this turns out to be the root of the maximally possible period. The actual set of periods depends on minor details of the algorithm, and the system settles down in one of only a few different cycles. These features are in perfect agreement with absolute random motion in phase space, to the extent allowed by deterministic dynamics.
Note: Fully integrated 3.2 Gbps quantum random number generator with real-time extraction
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhang, Xiao-Guang; Nie, You-Qi; Liang, Hao; Zhang, Jun; Pan, Jian-Wei; Zhou, Hongyi; Ma, Xiongfeng
2016-01-01
We present a real-time and fully integrated quantum random number generator (QRNG) by measuring laser phase fluctuations. The QRNG scheme based on laser phase fluctuations is featured for its capability of generating ultra-high-speed random numbers. However, the speed bottleneck of a practical QRNG lies on the limited speed of randomness extraction. To close the gap between the fast randomness generation and the slow post-processing, we propose a pipeline extraction algorithm based on Toeplitz matrix hashing and implement it in a high-speed field-programmable gate array. Further, all the QRNG components are integrated into a module, including a compact and actively stabilized interferometer, high-speed data acquisition, and real-time data post-processing and transmission. The final generation rate of the QRNG module with real-time extraction can reach 3.2 Gbps.
Note: Fully integrated 3.2 Gbps quantum random number generator with real-time extraction
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Zhang, Xiao-Guang; Nie, You-Qi; Liang, Hao; Zhang, Jun, E-mail: zhangjun@ustc.edu.cn; Pan, Jian-Wei [Hefei National Laboratory for Physical Sciences at the Microscale and Department of Modern Physics, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui 230026 (China); CAS Center for Excellence and Synergetic Innovation Center in Quantum Information and Quantum Physics, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui 230026 (China); Zhou, Hongyi; Ma, Xiongfeng [Center for Quantum Information, Institute for Interdisciplinary Information Sciences, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China)
2016-07-15
We present a real-time and fully integrated quantum random number generator (QRNG) by measuring laser phase fluctuations. The QRNG scheme based on laser phase fluctuations is featured for its capability of generating ultra-high-speed random numbers. However, the speed bottleneck of a practical QRNG lies on the limited speed of randomness extraction. To close the gap between the fast randomness generation and the slow post-processing, we propose a pipeline extraction algorithm based on Toeplitz matrix hashing and implement it in a high-speed field-programmable gate array. Further, all the QRNG components are integrated into a module, including a compact and actively stabilized interferometer, high-speed data acquisition, and real-time data post-processing and transmission. The final generation rate of the QRNG module with real-time extraction can reach 3.2 Gbps.
25 CFR 547.14 - What are the minimum technical standards for electronic random number generation?
2010-04-01
... random number generation? 547.14 Section 547.14 Indians NATIONAL INDIAN GAMING COMMISSION, DEPARTMENT OF... CLASS II GAMES § 547.14 What are the minimum technical standards for electronic random number generation...) Unpredictability; and (3) Non-repeatability. (b) Statistical Randomness.(1) Numbers produced by an RNG shall be...
Digital-Analog Hybrid Scheme and Its Application to Chaotic Random Number Generators
Yuan, Zeshi; Li, Hongtao; Miao, Yunchi; Hu, Wen; Zhu, Xiaohua
2017-12-01
Practical random number generation (RNG) circuits are typically achieved with analog devices or digital approaches. Digital-based techniques, which use field programmable gate array (FPGA) and graphics processing units (GPU) etc. usually have better performances than analog methods as they are programmable, efficient and robust. However, digital realizations suffer from the effect of finite precision. Accordingly, the generated random numbers (RNs) are actually periodic instead of being real random. To tackle this limitation, in this paper we propose a novel digital-analog hybrid scheme that employs the digital unit as the main body, and minimum analog devices to generate physical RNs. Moreover, the possibility of realizing the proposed scheme with only one memory element is discussed. Without loss of generality, we use the capacitor and the memristor along with FPGA to construct the proposed hybrid system, and a chaotic true random number generator (TRNG) circuit is realized, producing physical RNs at a throughput of Gbit/s scale. These RNs successfully pass all the tests in the NIST SP800-22 package, confirming the significance of the scheme in practical applications. In addition, the use of this new scheme is not restricted to RNGs, and it also provides a strategy to solve the effect of finite precision in other digital systems.
Hardware implementation of a GFSR pseudo-random number generator
Aiello, G. R.; Budinich, M.; Milotti, E.
1989-12-01
We describe the hardware implementation of a pseudo-random number generator of the "Generalized Feedback Shift Register" (GFSR) type. After brief theoretical considerations we describe two versions of the hardware, the tests done and the performances achieved.
Quantum random number generator based on quantum tunneling effect
Zhou, Haihan; Li, Junlin; Pan, Dong; Zhang, Weixing; Long, Guilu
2017-01-01
In this paper, we proposed an experimental implementation of quantum random number generator(QRNG) with inherent randomness of quantum tunneling effect of electrons. We exploited InGaAs/InP diodes, whose valance band and conduction band shared a quasi-constant energy barrier. We applied a bias voltage on the InGaAs/InP avalanche diode, which made the diode works under Geiger mode, and triggered the tunneling events with a periodic pulse. Finally, after data collection and post-processing, our...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Gernaey, Krist; Flores Alsina, Xavier; Rosen, Christian
2011-01-01
: the larger the simulated sewer network, the smoother the simulated diurnal flow rate and concentration variations. In the discussion, it is pointed out how the proposed phenomenological models can be expanded to other applications, for example to represent heavy metal or organic micro-pollutant loads......Activated Sludge Models are widely used for simulation-based evaluation of wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) performance. However, due to the high workload and cost of a measuring campaign on a full-scale WWTP, many simulation studies suffer from lack of sufficiently long influent flow rate...... and concentration time series representing realistic wastewater influent dynamics. In this paper, a simple phenomenological modelling approach is proposed as an alternative to generate dynamic influent pollutant disturbance scenarios. The presented set of models is constructed following the principles of parsimony...
Multiscale scenarios for nature futures
Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Pereira, Henrique M.; Ferrier, Simon; Alkemade, Rob; Acosta, Lilibeth A.; Akcakaya, H. Resit; Den Belder, Eefje; Fazel, Asghar M.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harfoot, Mike; Harhash, Khaled A.; Harrison, Paula A.; Hauck, Jennifer; Hendriks, Rob J.J.; Hernández, Gladys; Jetz, Walter; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Sylvia I.; Kim, Hyejin; King, Nicholas; Kok, Marcel T.J.; Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O.; Lazarova, Tanya; Leadley, Paul; Lundquist, Carolyn J.; García Márquez, Jaime; Meyer, Carsten; Navarro, Laetitia M.; Nesshöver, Carsten; Ngo, Hien T.; Ninan, Karachepone N.; Palomo, Maria G.; Pereira, Laura M.; Peterson, Garry D.; Pichs, Ramon; Popp, Alexander; Purvis, Andy; Ravera, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo; Sathyapalan, Jyothis; Schipper, Aafke M.; Seppelt, Ralf; Settele, Josef; Sitas, Nadia; Van Vuuren, Detlef|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X
2017-01-01
Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.
Robust random number generation using steady-state emission of gain-switched laser diodes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yuan, Z. L.; Lucamarini, M.; Dynes, J. F.; Fröhlich, B.; Plews, A.; Shields, A. J.
2014-01-01
We demonstrate robust, high-speed random number generation using interference of the steady-state emission of guaranteed random phases, obtained through gain-switching a semiconductor laser diode. Steady-state emission tolerates large temporal pulse misalignments and therefore significantly improves the interference quality. Using an 8-bit digitizer followed by a finite-impulse-response unbiasing algorithm, we achieve random number generation rates of 8 and 20 Gb/s, for laser repetition rates of 1 and 2.5 GHz, respectively, with a ±20% tolerance in the interferometer differential delay. We also report a generation rate of 80 Gb/s using partially phase-correlated short pulses. In relation to the field of quantum key distribution, our results confirm the gain-switched laser diode as a suitable light source, capable of providing phase-randomized coherent pulses at a clock rate of up to 2.5 GHz.
Pseudo-random number generators for Monte Carlo simulations on ATI Graphics Processing Units
Demchik, Vadim
2011-03-01
Basic uniform pseudo-random number generators are implemented on ATI Graphics Processing Units (GPU). The performance results of the realized generators (multiplicative linear congruential (GGL), XOR-shift (XOR128), RANECU, RANMAR, RANLUX and Mersenne Twister (MT19937)) on CPU and GPU are discussed. The obtained speed up factor is hundreds of times in comparison with CPU. RANLUX generator is found to be the most appropriate for using on GPU in Monte Carlo simulations. The brief review of the pseudo-random number generators used in modern software packages for Monte Carlo simulations in high-energy physics is presented.
Tsunami Generation and Propagation by 3D deformable Landslides and Application to Scenarios
McFall, Brian C.; Fritz, Hermann M.
2014-05-01
Tsunamis generated by landslides and volcano flank collapse account for some of the most catastrophic natural disasters recorded and can be particularly devastative in the near field region due to locally high wave amplitudes and runup. The events of 1958 Lituya Bay, 1963 Vajont reservoir, 1980 Spirit Lake, 2002 Stromboli and 2010 Haiti demonstrate the danger of tsunamis generated by landslides or volcano flank collapses. Unfortunately critical field data from these events is lacking. Source and runup scenarios based on real world events are physically modeled using generalized Froude similarity in the three dimensional NEES tsunami wave basin at Oregon State University. A novel pneumatic landslide tsunami generator (LTG) was deployed to simulate landslides with varying geometry and kinematics. The bathymetric and topographic scenarios tested with the LTG are the basin-wide propagation and runup, fjord, curved headland fjord and a conical island setting representing a landslide off an island or a volcano flank collapse. The LTG consists of a sliding box filled with 1,350 kg of landslide material which is accelerated by means of four pneumatic pistons down a 2H:1V slope. The landslide is launched from the sliding box and continues to accelerate by gravitational forces up to velocities of 5 m/s. The landslide Froude number at impact with the water is in the range 1
Multiscale scenarios for nature futures
Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Pereira, Henrique Miguel; Ferrier, Simon; Alkemade, J.R.M.; Acosta, Lilibeth A.; Resit Akcakaya, H.; Belder, den E.; Fazel, Asghar M.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harfoot, Mike; Harhash, Khaled A.; Harrison, Paula A.; Hauck, Jennifer; Hendriks, Rob J.J.; Hernández, Gladys; Jetz, Walter; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S.I.S.E.; Kim, Hyejin; King, Nicholas; Kok, Marcel; Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O.; Lazarova, Tanya; Leadley, Paul; Lundquist, Carolyn J.; García Márquez, Jaime; Meyer, Carsten; Navarro, Laetitia M.; Nesshöver, Carsten; Ngo, Hien T.; Ninan, Karachepone N.; Palomo, Maria G.; Pereira, Laura; Peterson, G.D.; Pichs, Ramon; Popp, Alexander; Purvis, Andy; Ravera, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo; Sathyapalan, Jyothis; Schipper, Aafke; Seppelt, Ralf; Settele, Josef; Sitas, Nadia; Vuuren, van D.
2017-01-01
Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship
with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.
Theoretical and empirical convergence results for additive congruential random number generators
Wikramaratna, Roy S.
2010-03-01
Additive Congruential Random Number (ACORN) generators represent an approach to generating uniformly distributed pseudo-random numbers that is straightforward to implement efficiently for arbitrarily large order and modulus; if it is implemented using integer arithmetic, it becomes possible to generate identical sequences on any machine. This paper briefly reviews existing results concerning ACORN generators and relevant theory concerning sequences that are well distributed mod 1 in k dimensions. It then demonstrates some new theoretical results for ACORN generators implemented in integer arithmetic with modulus M=2[mu] showing that they are a family of generators that converge (in a sense that is defined in the paper) to being well distributed mod 1 in k dimensions, as [mu]=log2M tends to infinity. By increasing k, it is possible to increase without limit the number of dimensions in which the resulting sequences approximate to well distributed. The paper concludes by applying the standard TestU01 test suite to ACORN generators for selected values of the modulus (between 260 and 2150), the order (between 4 and 30) and various odd seed values. On the basis of these and earlier results, it is recommended that an order of at least 9 be used together with an odd seed and modulus equal to 230p, for a small integer value of p. While a choice of p=2 should be adequate for most typical applications, increasing p to 3 or 4 gives a sequence that will consistently pass all the tests in the TestU01 test suite, giving additional confidence in more demanding applications. The results demonstrate that the ACORN generators are a reliable source of uniformly distributed pseudo-random numbers, and that in practice (as suggested by the theoretical convergence results) the quality of the ACORN sequences increases with increasing modulus and order.
Fortran code for generating random probability vectors, unitaries, and quantum states
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jonas eMaziero
2016-03-01
Full Text Available The usefulness of generating random configurations is recognized in many areas of knowledge. Fortran was born for scientific computing and has been one of the main programming languages in this area since then. And several ongoing projects targeting towards its betterment indicate that it will keep this status in the decades to come. In this article, we describe Fortran codes produced, or organized, for the generation of the following random objects: numbers, probability vectors, unitary matrices, and quantum state vectors and density matrices. Some matrix functions are also included and may be of independent interest.
Uniqueness: skews bit occurrence frequencies in randomly generated fingerprint libraries.
Chen, Nelson G
2016-08-01
Requiring that randomly generated chemical fingerprint libraries have unique fingerprints such that no two fingerprints are identical causes a systematic skew in bit occurrence frequencies, the proportion at which specified bits are set. Observed frequencies (O) at which each bit is set within the resulting libraries systematically differ from frequencies at which bits are set at fingerprint generation (E). Observed frequencies systematically skew toward 0.5, with the effect being more pronounced as library size approaches the compound space, which is the total number of unique possible fingerprints given the number of bit positions each fingerprint contains. The effect is quantified for varying library sizes as a fraction of the overall compound space, and for changes in the specified frequency E. The cause and implications for this systematic skew are subsequently discussed. When generating random libraries of chemical fingerprints, the imposition of a uniqueness requirement should either be avoided or taken into account.
A universal algorithm to generate pseudo-random numbers based on uniform mapping as homeomorphism
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fu-Lai, Wang
2010-01-01
A specific uniform map is constructed as a homeomorphism mapping chaotic time series into [0,1] to obtain sequences of standard uniform distribution. With the uniform map, a chaotic orbit and a sequence orbit obtained are topologically equivalent to each other so the map can preserve the most dynamic properties of chaotic systems such as permutation entropy. Based on the uniform map, a universal algorithm to generate pseudo random numbers is proposed and the pseudo random series is tested to follow the standard 0–1 random distribution both theoretically and experimentally. The algorithm is not complex, which does not impose high requirement on computer hard ware and thus computation speed is fast. The method not only extends the parameter spaces but also avoids the drawback of small function space caused by constraints on chaotic maps used to generate pseudo random numbers. The algorithm can be applied to any chaotic system and can produce pseudo random sequence of high quality, thus can be a good universal pseudo random number generator. (general)
A universal algorithm to generate pseudo-random numbers based on uniform mapping as homeomorphism
Wang, Fu-Lai
2010-09-01
A specific uniform map is constructed as a homeomorphism mapping chaotic time series into [0,1] to obtain sequences of standard uniform distribution. With the uniform map, a chaotic orbit and a sequence orbit obtained are topologically equivalent to each other so the map can preserve the most dynamic properties of chaotic systems such as permutation entropy. Based on the uniform map, a universal algorithm to generate pseudo random numbers is proposed and the pseudo random series is tested to follow the standard 0-1 random distribution both theoretically and experimentally. The algorithm is not complex, which does not impose high requirement on computer hard ware and thus computation speed is fast. The method not only extends the parameter spaces but also avoids the drawback of small function space caused by constraints on chaotic maps used to generate pseudo random numbers. The algorithm can be applied to any chaotic system and can produce pseudo random sequence of high quality, thus can be a good universal pseudo random number generator.
Very high performance pseudo-random number generation on DAP
Smith, K. A.; Reddaway, S. F.; Scott, D. M.
1985-07-01
Since the National DAP Service began at QMC in 1980, extensive use has been made of pseudo-random numbers in Monte Carlo simulation. Matrices of uniform numbers have been produced by various generators: (a) multiplicative ( x+ 1 = 13 13xn mod 2 59); (b) very long period shift register ( x4423 + x271 + 1); (c) multiple shorter period ( x127 + x7 + 1) shift registers generating several matrices per iteration. The above uniform generators can also feed a normal distribution generator that uses the Box-Muller transformation. This paper describes briefly the generators, their implementation and speed. Generator (b) has been greatly speeded-up by re-implementation, and now produces more than 100 × 10 6 high quality 16-bit numbers/s. Generator (c) is under development and will achieve even higher performance, mainly due to producing data in greater bulk. High quality numbers are expected, and performance will range from 400 to 800 × 10 6 numbers/s, depending on how the generator is used.
Minimal-post-processing 320-Gbps true random bit generation using physical white chaos.
Wang, Anbang; Wang, Longsheng; Li, Pu; Wang, Yuncai
2017-02-20
Chaotic external-cavity semiconductor laser (ECL) is a promising entropy source for generation of high-speed physical random bits or digital keys. The rate and randomness is unfortunately limited by laser relaxation oscillation and external-cavity resonance, and is usually improved by complicated post processing. Here, we propose using a physical broadband white chaos generated by optical heterodyning of two ECLs as entropy source to construct high-speed random bit generation (RBG) with minimal post processing. The optical heterodyne chaos not only has a white spectrum without signature of relaxation oscillation and external-cavity resonance but also has a symmetric amplitude distribution. Thus, after quantization with a multi-bit analog-digital-convertor (ADC), random bits can be obtained by extracting several least significant bits (LSBs) without any other processing. In experiments, a white chaos with a 3-dB bandwidth of 16.7 GHz is generated. Its entropy rate is estimated as 16 Gbps by single-bit quantization which means a spectrum efficiency of 96%. With quantization using an 8-bit ADC, 320-Gbps physical RBG is achieved by directly extracting 4 LSBs at 80-GHz sampling rate.
Generation of correlated finite alphabet waveforms using gaussian random variables
Jardak, Seifallah
2014-09-01
Correlated waveforms have a number of applications in different fields, such as radar and communication. It is very easy to generate correlated waveforms using infinite alphabets, but for some of the applications, it is very challenging to use them in practice. Moreover, to generate infinite alphabet constant envelope correlated waveforms, the available research uses iterative algorithms, which are computationally very expensive. In this work, we propose simple novel methods to generate correlated waveforms using finite alphabet constant and non-constant-envelope symbols. To generate finite alphabet waveforms, the proposed method map the Gaussian random variables onto the phase-shift-keying, pulse-amplitude, and quadrature-amplitude modulation schemes. For such mapping, the probability-density-function of Gaussian random variables is divided into M regions, where M is the number of alphabets in the corresponding modulation scheme. By exploiting the mapping function, the relationship between the cross-correlation of Gaussian and finite alphabet symbols is derived. To generate equiprobable symbols, the area of each region is kept same. If the requirement is to have each symbol with its own unique probability, the proposed scheme allows us that as well. Although, the proposed scheme is general, the main focus of this paper is to generate finite alphabet waveforms for multiple-input multiple-output radar, where correlated waveforms are used to achieve desired beampatterns. © 2014 IEEE.
Guidelines for random excitation forces due to cross flow in steam generators
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Taylor, C.E.; Pettigrew, M.J. [Atomic Energy of Canada Limited, Chalk River, Ontario (Canada)
1998-07-01
Random excitation forces can cause low-amplitude tube motion that will result in long-term fretting-wear or fatigue. To prevent these tube failures in steam generators and other heat exchangers, designers and trouble-shooters must have guidelines that incorporate random or turbulent fluid forces. Experiments designed to measure fluid forces have been carried out at Chalk River Laboratories and at other labs around the world. The data from these experiments have been studied and collated to determine suitable guidelines for random excitation forces. In this paper, a guideline for random excitation forces in single-phase cross flow is presented in the form of normalised spectra that are applicable to a wide range of flow conditions and tube frequencies. In particular, the experimental results used in this study were carried out over the full range of flow conditions found in a nuclear steam generator. The proposed guidelines are applicable to steam generators, condensers, reheaters and other shell-and-tube heat exchangers. They may be used for flow-induced vibration analysis of new or existing components, as input to vibration analysis computer codes and as specifications in procurement documents. (author)
Guidelines for random excitation forces due to cross flow in steam generators
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Taylor, C.E.; Pettigrew, M.J.
1998-01-01
Random excitation forces can cause low-amplitude tube motion that will result in long-term fretting-wear or fatigue. To prevent these tube failures in steam generators and other heat exchangers, designers and trouble-shooters must have guidelines that incorporate random or turbulent fluid forces. Experiments designed to measure fluid forces have been carried out at Chalk River Laboratories and at other labs around the world. The data from these experiments have been studied and collated to determine suitable guidelines for random excitation forces. In this paper, a guideline for random excitation forces in single-phase cross flow is presented in the form of normalised spectra that are applicable to a wide range of flow conditions and tube frequencies. In particular, the experimental results used in this study were carried out over the full range of flow conditions found in a nuclear steam generator. The proposed guidelines are applicable to steam generators, condensers, reheaters and other shell-and-tube heat exchangers. They may be used for flow-induced vibration analysis of new or existing components, as input to vibration analysis computer codes and as specifications in procurement documents. (author)
Generating log-normally distributed random numbers by using the Ziggurat algorithm
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Choi, Jong Soo
2016-01-01
Uncertainty analyses are usually based on the Monte Carlo method. Using an efficient random number generator(RNG) is a key element in success of Monte Carlo simulations. Log-normal distributed variates are very typical in NPP PSAs. This paper proposes an approach to generate log normally distributed variates based on the Ziggurat algorithm and evaluates the efficiency of the proposed Ziggurat RNG. The proposed RNG can be helpful to improve the uncertainty analysis of NPP PSAs. This paper focuses on evaluating the efficiency of the Ziggurat algorithm from a NPP PSA point of view. From this study, we can draw the following conclusions. - The Ziggurat algorithm is one of perfect random number generators to product normal distributed variates. - The Ziggurat algorithm is computationally much faster than the most commonly used method, Marsaglia polar method
Standard random number generation for MBASIC
Tausworthe, R. C.
1976-01-01
A machine-independent algorithm is presented and analyzed for generating pseudorandom numbers suitable for the standard MBASIC system. The algorithm used is the polynomial congruential or linear recurrence modulo 2 method. Numbers, formed as nonoverlapping adjacent 28-bit words taken from the bit stream produced by the formula a sub m + 532 = a sub m + 37 + a sub m (modulo 2), do not repeat within the projected age of the solar system, show no ensemble correlation, exhibit uniform distribution of adjacent numbers up to 19 dimensions, and do not deviate from random runs-up and runs-down behavior.
High-speed true random number generation based on paired memristors for security electronics
Zhang, Teng; Yin, Minghui; Xu, Changmin; Lu, Xiayan; Sun, Xinhao; Yang, Yuchao; Huang, Ru
2017-11-01
True random number generator (TRNG) is a critical component in hardware security that is increasingly important in the era of mobile computing and internet of things. Here we demonstrate a TRNG using intrinsic variation of memristors as a natural source of entropy that is otherwise undesirable in most applications. The random bits were produced by cyclically switching a pair of tantalum oxide based memristors and comparing their resistance values in the off state, taking advantage of the more pronounced resistance variation compared with that in the on state. Using an alternating read scheme in the designed TRNG circuit, the unbiasedness of the random numbers was significantly improved, and the bitstream passed standard randomness tests. The Pt/TaO x /Ta memristors fabricated in this work have fast programming/erasing speeds of ˜30 ns, suggesting a high random number throughput. The approach proposed here thus holds great promise for physically-implemented random number generation.
Experimentally Generated Random Numbers Certified by the Impossibility of Superluminal Signaling
Bierhorst, Peter; Shalm, Lynden K.; Mink, Alan; Jordan, Stephen; Liu, Yi-Kai; Rommal, Andrea; Glancy, Scott; Christensen, Bradley; Nam, Sae Woo; Knill, Emanuel
Random numbers are an important resource for applications such as numerical simulation and secure communication. However, it is difficult to certify whether a physical random number generator is truly unpredictable. Here, we exploit the phenomenon of quantum nonlocality in a loophole-free photonic Bell test experiment to obtain data containing randomness that cannot be predicted by any theory that does not also allow the sending of signals faster than the speed of light. To certify and quantify the randomness, we develop a new protocol that performs well in an experimental regime characterized by low violation of Bell inequalities. Applying an extractor function to our data, we obtain 256 new random bits, uniform to within 10- 3 .
Chui, T. F. M.; Yang, Y.
2017-12-01
Green infrastructures (GI) have been widely used to mitigate flood risk, improve surface water quality, and to restore predevelopment hydrologic regimes. Commonly-used GI include, bioretention system, porous pavement and green roof, etc. They are normally sized to fulfil different design criteria (e.g. providing certain storage depths, limiting peak surface flow rates) that are formulated for current climate conditions. While GI commonly have long lifespan, the sensitivity of their performance to climate change is however unclear. This study first proposes a method to formulate suitable design criteria to meet different management interests (e.g. different levels of first flush reduction and peak flow reduction). Then typical designs of GI are proposed. In addition, a high resolution stochastic design storm generator using copulas and random cascade model is developed, which is calibrated using recorded rainfall time series. Then, few climate change scenarios are generated by varying the duration and depth of design storms, and changing the parameters of the calibrated storm generator. Finally, the performance of GI with typical designs under the random synthesized design storms are then assessed using numerical modeling. The robustness of the designs is obtained by the comparing their performance in the future scenarios to the current one. This study overall examines the robustness of the current GI design criteria under uncertain future climate conditions, demonstrating whether current GI design criteria should be modified to account for climate change.
Towards the generation of random bits at terahertz rates based on a chaotic semiconductor laser
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kanter, Ido; Aviad, Yaara; Reidler, Igor; Cohen, Elad; Rosenbluh, Michael
2010-01-01
Random bit generators (RBGs) are important in many aspects of statistical physics and crucial in Monte-Carlo simulations, stochastic modeling and quantum cryptography. The quality of a RBG is measured by the unpredictability of the bit string it produces and the speed at which the truly random bits can be generated. Deterministic algorithms generate pseudo-random numbers at high data rates as they are only limited by electronic hardware speed, but their unpredictability is limited by the very nature of their deterministic origin. It is widely accepted that the core of any true RBG must be an intrinsically non-deterministic physical process, e.g. measuring thermal noise from a resistor. Owing to low signal levels, such systems are highly susceptible to bias, introduced by amplification, and to small nonrandom external perturbations resulting in a limited generation rate, typically less than 100M bit/s. We present a physical random bit generator, based on a chaotic semiconductor laser, having delayed optical feedback, which operates reliably at rates up to 300Gbit/s. The method uses a high derivative of the digitized chaotic laser intensity and generates the random sequence by retaining a number of the least significant bits of the high derivative value. The method is insensitive to laser operational parameters and eliminates the necessity for all external constraints such as incommensurate sampling rates and laser external cavity round trip time. The randomness of long bit strings is verified by standard statistical tests.
Towards the generation of random bits at terahertz rates based on a chaotic semiconductor laser
Kanter, Ido; Aviad, Yaara; Reidler, Igor; Cohen, Elad; Rosenbluh, Michael
2010-06-01
Random bit generators (RBGs) are important in many aspects of statistical physics and crucial in Monte-Carlo simulations, stochastic modeling and quantum cryptography. The quality of a RBG is measured by the unpredictability of the bit string it produces and the speed at which the truly random bits can be generated. Deterministic algorithms generate pseudo-random numbers at high data rates as they are only limited by electronic hardware speed, but their unpredictability is limited by the very nature of their deterministic origin. It is widely accepted that the core of any true RBG must be an intrinsically non-deterministic physical process, e.g. measuring thermal noise from a resistor. Owing to low signal levels, such systems are highly susceptible to bias, introduced by amplification, and to small nonrandom external perturbations resulting in a limited generation rate, typically less than 100M bit/s. We present a physical random bit generator, based on a chaotic semiconductor laser, having delayed optical feedback, which operates reliably at rates up to 300Gbit/s. The method uses a high derivative of the digitized chaotic laser intensity and generates the random sequence by retaining a number of the least significant bits of the high derivative value. The method is insensitive to laser operational parameters and eliminates the necessity for all external constraints such as incommensurate sampling rates and laser external cavity round trip time. The randomness of long bit strings is verified by standard statistical tests.
The generation of random directed networks with prescribed 1-node and 2-node degree correlations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zamora-Lopez, Gorka; Kurths, Juergen; Zhou Changsong; Zlatic, Vinko
2008-01-01
The generation of random networks is a very common problem in complex network research. In this paper, we have studied the correlation nature of several real networks and found that, typically, a large number of links are deterministic, i.e. they cannot be randomized. This finding permits fast generation of ensembles of maximally random networks with prescribed 1-node and 2-node degree correlations. When the introduction of self-loops or multiple-links are not desired, random network generation methods typically reach blocked states. Here, a mechanism is proposed, the 'force-and-drop' method, to overcome such states. Our algorithm can be easily simplified for undirected graphs and reduced to account for any subclass of 2-node degree correlations
Generation of pseudo-random numbers with the use of inverse chaotic transformation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lawnik Marcin
2018-02-01
Full Text Available In (Lawnik M., Generation of numbers with the distribution close to uniform with the use of chaotic maps, In: Obaidat M.S., Kacprzyk J., Ören T. (Ed., International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications (SIMULTECH (28-30 August 2014, Vienna, Austria, SCITEPRESS, 2014 Lawnik discussed a method of generating pseudo-random numbers from uniform distribution with the use of adequate chaotic transformation. The method enables the “flattening” of continuous distributions to uniform one. In this paper a inverse process to the above-mentioned method is presented, and, in consequence, a new manner of generating pseudo-random numbers from a given continuous distribution. The method utilizes the frequency of the occurrence of successive branches of chaotic transformation in the process of “flattening”. To generate the values from the given distribution one discrete and one continuous value of a random variable are required. The presented method does not directly involve the knowledge of the density function or the cumulative distribution function, which is, undoubtedly, a great advantage in comparison with other well-known methods. The described method was analysed on the example of the standard normal distribution.
Multi-criteria ranking of energy generation scenarios with Monte Carlo simulation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Baležentis, Tomas; Streimikiene, Dalia
2017-01-01
Highlights: • Two advanced optimization models were applied for EU energy policy scenarios development. • Several advanced MCDA were applied for energy policy scenarios ranking: WASPAS, ARAS, TOPSIS. • A Monte Carlo simulation was applied for sensitivity analysis of scenarios ranking. • New policy insights in terms of energy scenarios forecasting were provided based on research conducted. - Abstract: Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are omnipresent in energy policy analysis. Even though IAMs can successfully handle uncertainty pertinent to energy planning problems, they render multiple variables as outputs of the modelling. Therefore, policy makers are faced with multiple energy development scenarios and goals. Specifically, technical, environmental, and economic aspects are represented by multiple criteria, which, in turn, are related to conflicting objectives. Preferences of decision makers need to be taken into account in order to facilitate effective energy planning. Multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) tools are relevant in aggregating diverse information and thus comparing alternative energy planning options. The paper aims at ranking European Union (EU) energy development scenarios based on several IAMs with respect to multiple criteria. By doing so, we account for uncertainty surrounding policy priorities outside the IAM. In order to follow a sustainable approach, the ranking of policy options is based on EU energy policy priorities: energy efficiency improvements, increased use of renewables, reduction in and low mitigations costs of GHG emission. The ranking of scenarios is based on the estimates rendered by the two advanced IAMs relying on different approaches, namely TIAM and WITCH. The data are fed into the three MCDM techniques: the method of weighted aggregated sum/product assessment (WASPAS), the Additive Ratio Assessment (ARAS) method, and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS). As MCDM techniques allow
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cryns, Jackson W.; Hatchell, Brian K.; Santiago-Rojas, Emiliano; Silvers, Kurt L.
2013-07-01
Formal journal article Experimental analysis of a piezoelectric energy harvesting system for harmonic, random, and sine on random vibration Abstract: Harvesting power with a piezoelectric vibration powered generator using a full-wave rectifier conditioning circuit is experimentally compared for varying sinusoidal, random and sine on random (SOR) input vibration scenarios. Additionally, the implications of source vibration characteristics on harvester design are discussed. Studies in vibration harvesting have yielded numerous alternatives for harvesting electrical energy from vibrations but piezoceramics arose as the most compact, energy dense means of energy transduction. The rise in popularity of harvesting energy from ambient vibrations has made piezoelectric generators commercially available. Much of the available literature focuses on maximizing harvested power through nonlinear processing circuits that require accurate knowledge of generator internal mechanical and electrical characteristics and idealization of the input vibration source, which cannot be assumed in general application. In this manuscript, variations in source vibration and load resistance are explored for a commercially available piezoelectric generator. We characterize the source vibration by its acceleration response for repeatability and transcription to general application. The results agree with numerical and theoretical predictions for in previous literature that load optimal resistance varies with transducer natural frequency and source type, and the findings demonstrate that significant gains are seen with lower tuned transducer natural frequencies for similar source amplitudes. Going beyond idealized steady state sinusoidal and simplified random vibration input, SOR testing allows for more accurate representation of real world ambient vibration. It is shown that characteristic interactions from more complex vibrational sources significantly alter power generation and power processing
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jansen, J.C.; Beurskens, L.W.M.; Van Tilburg, X.
2006-02-01
This report presents results of an application of Markowitz Portfolio Theory (MPT) to the future portfolio of electricity generating technologies in the Netherlands in year 2030. Projections are made based on two specific scenarios constructed by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB), i.e. 'Strong Europe (SE)' and 'Global Economy (GE)'. This study zooms in on the electricity cost risk dimension of the Dutch portfolio of generating technologies. Major results of this study are: (a) In both scenarios, the base variant is not very efficient. Graphical analysis suggests that diversification may yield up to 20% risk reduction at no extra cost; (b) Promotion of renewable energy can greatly decrease the portfolio risk. Defining mixes without renewables results in significantly riskier mixes with relatively small impact on portfolio costs; (c) Because of its relative low risk and high potential, large-scale implementation of offshore wind can reduce cost risk of the Dutch generating portfolio while only in the GE scenario a (small) upward effect on the projected Dutch electricity cost in year 2030 is foreseen. In a SE world large-scale implementation of offshore wind is projected to have a downward effect on Dutch electricity prices by the year 2030
The generation of random directed networks with prescribed 1-node and 2-node degree correlations
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Zamora-Lopez, Gorka; Kurths, Juergen [Institute of Physics, University of Potsdam, PO Box 601553, 14415 Potsdam (Germany); Zhou Changsong [Department of Physics, Hong Kong Baptist University, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong (China); Zlatic, Vinko [Rudjer Boskovic Institute, PO Box 180, HR-10002 Zagreb (Croatia)
2008-06-06
The generation of random networks is a very common problem in complex network research. In this paper, we have studied the correlation nature of several real networks and found that, typically, a large number of links are deterministic, i.e. they cannot be randomized. This finding permits fast generation of ensembles of maximally random networks with prescribed 1-node and 2-node degree correlations. When the introduction of self-loops or multiple-links are not desired, random network generation methods typically reach blocked states. Here, a mechanism is proposed, the 'force-and-drop' method, to overcome such states. Our algorithm can be easily simplified for undirected graphs and reduced to account for any subclass of 2-node degree correlations.
Experimental study of a quantum random-number generator based on two independent lasers
Sun, Shi-Hai; Xu, Feihu
2017-12-01
A quantum random-number generator (QRNG) can produce true randomness by utilizing the inherent probabilistic nature of quantum mechanics. Recently, the spontaneous-emission quantum phase noise of the laser has been widely deployed for quantum random-number generation, due to its high rate, its low cost, and the feasibility of chip-scale integration. Here, we perform a comprehensive experimental study of a phase-noise-based QRNG with two independent lasers, each of which operates in either continuous-wave (CW) or pulsed mode. We implement the QRNG by operating the two lasers in three configurations, namely, CW + CW, CW + pulsed, and pulsed + pulsed, and demonstrate their trade-offs, strengths, and weaknesses.
Postprocessing of Accidental Scenarios by Semi-Supervised Self-Organizing Maps
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Francesco Di Maio
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Integrated Deterministic and Probabilistic Safety Analysis (IDPSA of dynamic systems calls for the development of efficient methods for accidental scenarios generation. The necessary consideration of failure events timing and sequencing along the scenarios requires the number of scenarios to be generated to increase with respect to conventional PSA. Consequently, their postprocessing for retrieving safety relevant information regarding the system behavior is challenged because of the large amount of generated scenarios that makes the computational cost for scenario postprocessing enormous and the retrieved information difficult to interpret. In the context of IDPSA, the interpretation consists in the classification of the generated scenarios as safe, failed, Near Misses (NMs, and Prime Implicants (PIs. To address this issue, in this paper we propose the use of an ensemble of Semi-Supervised Self-Organizing Maps (SSSOMs whose outcomes are combined by a locally weighted aggregation according to two strategies: a locally weighted aggregation and a decision tree based aggregation. In the former, we resort to the Local Fusion (LF principle for accounting the classification reliability of the different SSSOM classifiers, whereas in the latter we build a classification scheme to select the appropriate classifier (or ensemble of classifiers, for the type of scenario to be classified. The two strategies are applied for the postprocessing of the accidental scenarios of a dynamic U-Tube Steam Generator (UTSG.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marcin Piotr Pawlowski
2015-10-01
Full Text Available Entropy in computer security is associated with the unpredictability of a source of randomness. The random source with high entropy tends to achieve a uniform distribution of random values. Random number generators are one of the most important building blocks of cryptosystems. In constrained devices of the Internet of Things ecosystem, high entropy random number generators are hard to achieve due to hardware limitations. For the purpose of the random number generation in constrained devices, this work proposes a solution based on the least-significant bits concatenation entropy harvesting method. As a potential source of entropy, on-board integrated sensors (i.e., temperature, humidity and two different light sensors have been analyzed. Additionally, the costs (i.e., time and memory consumption of the presented approach have been measured. The results obtained from the proposed method with statistical fine tuning achieved a Shannon entropy of around 7.9 bits per byte of data for temperature and humidity sensors. The results showed that sensor-based random number generators are a valuable source of entropy with very small RAM and Flash memory requirements for constrained devices of the Internet of Things.
Pawlowski, Marcin Piotr; Jara, Antonio; Ogorzalek, Maciej
2015-01-01
Entropy in computer security is associated with the unpredictability of a source of randomness. The random source with high entropy tends to achieve a uniform distribution of random values. Random number generators are one of the most important building blocks of cryptosystems. In constrained devices of the Internet of Things ecosystem, high entropy random number generators are hard to achieve due to hardware limitations. For the purpose of the random number generation in constrained devices, this work proposes a solution based on the least-significant bits concatenation entropy harvesting method. As a potential source of entropy, on-board integrated sensors (i.e., temperature, humidity and two different light sensors) have been analyzed. Additionally, the costs (i.e., time and memory consumption) of the presented approach have been measured. The results obtained from the proposed method with statistical fine tuning achieved a Shannon entropy of around 7.9 bits per byte of data for temperature and humidity sensors. The results showed that sensor-based random number generators are a valuable source of entropy with very small RAM and Flash memory requirements for constrained devices of the Internet of Things. PMID:26506357
Pawlowski, Marcin Piotr; Jara, Antonio; Ogorzalek, Maciej
2015-10-22
Entropy in computer security is associated with the unpredictability of a source of randomness. The random source with high entropy tends to achieve a uniform distribution of random values. Random number generators are one of the most important building blocks of cryptosystems. In constrained devices of the Internet of Things ecosystem, high entropy random number generators are hard to achieve due to hardware limitations. For the purpose of the random number generation in constrained devices, this work proposes a solution based on the least-significant bits concatenation entropy harvesting method. As a potential source of entropy, on-board integrated sensors (i.e., temperature, humidity and two different light sensors) have been analyzed. Additionally, the costs (i.e., time and memory consumption) of the presented approach have been measured. The results obtained from the proposed method with statistical fine tuning achieved a Shannon entropy of around 7.9 bits per byte of data for temperature and humidity sensors. The results showed that sensor-based random number generators are a valuable source of entropy with very small RAM and Flash memory requirements for constrained devices of the Internet of Things.
Second generation CO2 FEP analysis: Cassifcarbon sequestration scenario identification framework
Yavuz, F.T.; Tilburg, T. van; Pagnier, H.
2008-01-01
A novel scenario analysis framework has been created, called Carbon Sequestration Scenario Identification Framework (CASSIF). This framework addresses containment performance defined by the three major categories: well, fault and seal integrity. The relevant factors that influence the integrity are
RANDOMNUMBERS, Random Number Sequence Generated from Gas Ionisation Chamber Data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Frigerio, N.A.; Sanathanan, L.P.; Morley, M.; Tyler, S.A.; Clark, N.A.; Wang, J.
1989-01-01
1 - Description of problem or function: RANDOM NUMBERS is a data collection of almost 2.7 million 31-bit random numbers generated by using a high resolution gas ionization detector chamber in conjunction with a 4096-channel multichannel analyzer to record the radioactive decay of alpha particles from a U-235 source. The signals from the decaying alpha particles were fed to the 4096-channel analyzer, and for each channel the frequency of signals registered in a 20,000-microsecond interval was recorded. The parity bits of these frequency counts, 0 for an even count and 1 for and odd count, were then assembled in sequence to form 31-bit random numbers and transcribed onto magnetic tape. This cycle was repeated to obtain the random numbers. 2 - Method of solution: The frequency distribution of counts from the device conforms to the Brockwell-Moyal distribution which takes into account the dead time of the counter. The count data were analyzed and tests for randomness on a sample indicate that the device is a highly reliable source of truly random numbers. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: The RANDOM NUMBERS tape contains 2,669,568 31-bit numbers
Yu, Aifang; Chen, Xiangyu; Cui, Haotian; Chen, Libo; Luo, Jianjun; Tang, Wei; Peng, Mingzeng; Zhang, Yang; Zhai, Junyi; Wang, Zhong Lin
2016-12-27
Modern cryptography increasingly employs random numbers generated from physical sources in lieu of conventional software-based pseudorandom numbers, primarily owing to the great demand of unpredictable, indecipherable cryptographic keys from true random numbers for information security. Thus, far, the sole demonstration of true random numbers has been generated through thermal noise and/or quantum effects, which suffers from expensive and complex equipment. In this paper, we demonstrate a method for self-powered creation of true random numbers by using triboelectric technology to collect random signals from nature. This random number generator based on coupled triboelectric and electrostatic induction effects at the liquid-dielectric interface includes an elaborately designed triboelectric generator (TENG) with an irregular grating structure, an electronic-optical device, and an optical-electronic device. The random characteristics of raindrops are harvested through TENG and consequently transformed and converted by electronic-optical device and an optical-electronic device with a nonlinear characteristic. The cooperation of the mechanical, electrical, and optical signals ensures that the generator possesses complex nonlinear input-output behavior and contributes to increased randomness. The random number sequences are deduced from final electrical signals received by an optical-electronic device using a familiar algorithm. These obtained random number sequences exhibit good statistical characteristics, unpredictability, and unrepeatability. Our study supplies a simple, practical, and effective method to generate true random numbers, which can be widely used in cryptographic protocols, digital signatures, authentication, identification, and other information security fields.
Primitive polynomials selection method for pseudo-random number generator
Anikin, I. V.; Alnajjar, Kh
2018-01-01
In this paper we suggested the method for primitive polynomials selection of special type. This kind of polynomials can be efficiently used as a characteristic polynomials for linear feedback shift registers in pseudo-random number generators. The proposed method consists of two basic steps: finding minimum-cost irreducible polynomials of the desired degree and applying primitivity tests to get the primitive ones. Finally two primitive polynomials, which was found by the proposed method, used in pseudorandom number generator based on fuzzy logic (FRNG) which had been suggested before by the authors. The sequences generated by new version of FRNG have low correlation magnitude, high linear complexity, less power consumption, is more balanced and have better statistical properties.
PRIMITIVE MATRICES AND GENERATORS OF PSEUDO RANDOM SEQUENCES OF GALOIS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. Beletsky
2014-04-01
Full Text Available In theory and practice of information cryptographic protection one of the key problems is the forming a binary pseudo-random sequences (PRS with a maximum length with acceptable statistical characteristics. PRS generators are usually implemented by linear shift register (LSR of maximum period with linear feedback [1]. In this paper we extend the concept of LSR, assuming that each of its rank (memory cell can be in one of the following condition. Let’s call such registers “generalized linear shift register.” The research goal is to develop algorithms for constructing Galois and Fibonacci generalized matrix of n-order over the field , which uniquely determined both the structure of corresponding generalized of n-order LSR maximal period, and formed on their basis Galois PRS generators of maximum length. Thus the article presents the questions of formation the primitive generalized Fibonacci and Galois arbitrary order matrix over the prime field . The synthesis of matrices is based on the use of irreducible polynomials of degree and primitive elements of the extended field generated by polynomial. The constructing methods of Galois and Fibonacci conjugated primitive matrices are suggested. The using possibilities of such matrices in solving the problem of constructing generalized generators of Galois pseudo-random sequences are discussed.
Macro-economic and energy scenarios for Japan through the long-term
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mankin, Shuichi
1986-03-01
As one of studies and systems analyses on the role of VHTR and process heat utilization in future energy systems, long-term macro economic and energy scenarios of Japan until the year 2030 have been generated. This paper presents,; 1) the outline of the long-term macro econometric model and the energy system dynamics model by which these scenarios were generated, 2) back grounds and prospects on future societies of Japan and exogeneous assumptions for calculations, and 3) macro energy and economic scenarios generated. Reflecting the present economic prospects, these scenarios are seemed to be of extremely low-growth type, however, the role of VHTR and its energy systems could be prospected clealy to play a large and important role within these scenario regions. Basic philosophies of scenario generations are also mentioned in this paper. (author)
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ben Bouallègue, Zied; Heppelmann, Tobias; Theis, Susanne E.
2016-01-01
the original ensemble forecasts. Based on the assumption of error stationarity, parametric methods aim to fully describe the forecast dependence structures. In this study, the concept of ECC is combined with past data statistics in order to account for the autocorrelation of the forecast error. The new...... approach, called d-ECC, is applied to wind forecasts from the high resolution ensemble system COSMO-DE-EPS run operationally at the German weather service. Scenarios generated by ECC and d-ECC are compared and assessed in the form of time series by means of multivariate verification tools and in a product...
Zheng, Guanglou; Fang, Gengfa; Shankaran, Rajan; Orgun, Mehmet A; Zhou, Jie; Qiao, Li; Saleem, Kashif
2017-05-01
Generating random binary sequences (BSes) is a fundamental requirement in cryptography. A BS is a sequence of N bits, and each bit has a value of 0 or 1. For securing sensors within wireless body area networks (WBANs), electrocardiogram (ECG)-based BS generation methods have been widely investigated in which interpulse intervals (IPIs) from each heartbeat cycle are processed to produce BSes. Using these IPI-based methods to generate a 128-bit BS in real time normally takes around half a minute. In order to improve the time efficiency of such methods, this paper presents an ECG multiple fiducial-points based binary sequence generation (MFBSG) algorithm. The technique of discrete wavelet transforms is employed to detect arrival time of these fiducial points, such as P, Q, R, S, and T peaks. Time intervals between them, including RR, RQ, RS, RP, and RT intervals, are then calculated based on this arrival time, and are used as ECG features to generate random BSes with low latency. According to our analysis on real ECG data, these ECG feature values exhibit the property of randomness and, thus, can be utilized to generate random BSes. Compared with the schemes that solely rely on IPIs to generate BSes, this MFBSG algorithm uses five feature values from one heart beat cycle, and can be up to five times faster than the solely IPI-based methods. So, it achieves a design goal of low latency. According to our analysis, the complexity of the algorithm is comparable to that of fast Fourier transforms. These randomly generated ECG BSes can be used as security keys for encryption or authentication in a WBAN system.
Extensions of von Neumann's method for generating random variables
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Monahan, J.F.
1979-01-01
Von Neumann's method of generating random variables with the exponential distribution and Forsythe's method for obtaining distributions with densities of the form e/sup -G//sup( x/) are generalized to apply to certain power series representations. The flexibility of the power series methods is illustrated by algorithms for the Cauchy and geometric distributions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bertschinger, E.
1987-01-01
Path integrals may be used to describe the statistical properties of a random field such as the primordial density perturbation field. In this framework the probability distribution is given for a Gaussian random field subjected to constraints such as the presence of a protovoid or supercluster at a specific location in the initial conditions. An algorithm has been constructed for generating samples of a constrained Gaussian random field on a lattice using Monte Carlo techniques. The method makes possible a systematic study of the density field around peaks or other constrained regions in the biased galaxy formation scenario, and it is effective for generating initial conditions for N-body simulations with rare objects in the computational volume. 21 references
Stress scenario generation for solvency and risk management
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Christiansen, Marcus Christian; Henriksen, Lars Frederik Brandt; Schomacker, Kristian Juul
2016-01-01
We derive worst-case scenarios in a life insurance model in the case where the interest rate and the various transition intensities are mutually dependent. Examples of this dependence are that (a) surrender intensities and interest rates are high at the same time, (b) mortality intensities of a p...
Random Sequence for Optimal Low-Power Laser Generated Ultrasound
Vangi, D.; Virga, A.; Gulino, M. S.
2017-08-01
Low-power laser generated ultrasounds are lately gaining importance in the research world, thanks to the possibility of investigating a mechanical component structural integrity through a non-contact and Non-Destructive Testing (NDT) procedure. The ultrasounds are, however, very low in amplitude, making it necessary to use pre-processing and post-processing operations on the signals to detect them. The cross-correlation technique is used in this work, meaning that a random signal must be used as laser input. For this purpose, a highly random and simple-to-create code called T sequence, capable of enhancing the ultrasound detectability, is introduced (not previously available at the state of the art). Several important parameters which characterize the T sequence can influence the process: the number of pulses Npulses , the pulse duration δ and the distance between pulses dpulses . A Finite Element FE model of a 3 mm steel disk has been initially developed to analytically study the longitudinal ultrasound generation mechanism and the obtainable outputs. Later, experimental tests have shown that the T sequence is highly flexible for ultrasound detection purposes, making it optimal to use high Npulses and δ but low dpulses . In the end, apart from describing all phenomena that arise in the low-power laser generation process, the results of this study are also important for setting up an effective NDT procedure using this technology.
Pseudo-random properties of a linear congruential generator investigated by b-adic diaphony
Stoev, Peter; Stoilova, Stanislava
2017-12-01
In the proposed paper we continue the study of the diaphony, defined in b-adic number system, and we extend it in different directions. We investigate this diaphony as a tool for estimation of the pseudorandom properties of some of the most used random number generators. This is done by evaluating the distribution of specially constructed two-dimensional nets on the base of the obtained random numbers. The aim is to see how the generated numbers are suitable for calculations in some numerical methods (Monte Carlo etc.).
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
O' Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.
2016-01-01
explicit emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with the climate model simulations run within the 2017–2018 time frame, and output from the climate model projections made available and analyses performed over the 2018–2020 period.
Cellular Automata-Based Parallel Random Number Generators Using FPGAs
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
David H. K. Hoe
2012-01-01
Full Text Available Cellular computing represents a new paradigm for implementing high-speed massively parallel machines. Cellular automata (CA, which consist of an array of locally connected processing elements, are a basic form of a cellular-based architecture. The use of field programmable gate arrays (FPGAs for implementing CA accelerators has shown promising results. This paper investigates the design of CA-based pseudo-random number generators (PRNGs using an FPGA platform. To improve the quality of the random numbers that are generated, the basic CA structure is enhanced in two ways. First, the addition of a superrule to each CA cell is considered. The resulting self-programmable CA (SPCA uses the superrule to determine when to make a dynamic rule change in each CA cell. The superrule takes its inputs from neighboring cells and can be considered itself a second CA working in parallel with the main CA. When implemented on an FPGA, the use of lookup tables in each logic cell removes any restrictions on how the super-rules should be defined. Second, a hybrid configuration is formed by combining a CA with a linear feedback shift register (LFSR. This is advantageous for FPGA designs due to the compactness of the LFSR implementations. A standard software package for statistically evaluating the quality of random number sequences known as Diehard is used to validate the results. Both the SPCA and the hybrid CA/LFSR were found to pass all the Diehard tests.
Algorithms for random generation and counting a Markov chain approach
Sinclair, Alistair
1993-01-01
This monograph studies two classical computational problems: counting the elements of a finite set of combinatorial structures, and generating them at random from some probability distribution. Apart from their intrinsic interest, these problems arise naturally in many branches of mathematics and the natural sciences.
A robust random number generator based on differential comparison of chaotic laser signals.
Zhang, Jianzhong; Wang, Yuncai; Liu, Ming; Xue, Lugang; Li, Pu; Wang, Anbang; Zhang, Mingjiang
2012-03-26
We experimentally realize a robust real-time random number generator by differentially comparing the signal from a chaotic semiconductor laser and its delayed signal through a 1-bit analog-to-digital converter. The probability density distribution of the output chaotic signal based on the differential comparison method possesses an extremely small coefficient of Pearson's median skewness (1.5 × 10⁻⁶), which can yield a balanced random sequence much easily than the previously reported method that compares the signal from the chaotic laser with a certain threshold value. Moveover, we experimently demonstrate that our method can stably generate good random numbers at rates of 1.44 Gbit/s with excellent immunity from external perturbations while the previously reported method fails.
An adaptive random search for short term generation scheduling with network constraints.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J A Marmolejo
Full Text Available This paper presents an adaptive random search approach to address a short term generation scheduling with network constraints, which determines the startup and shutdown schedules of thermal units over a given planning horizon. In this model, we consider the transmission network through capacity limits and line losses. The mathematical model is stated in the form of a Mixed Integer Non Linear Problem with binary variables. The proposed heuristic is a population-based method that generates a set of new potential solutions via a random search strategy. The random search is based on the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. The main key of the proposed method is that the noise level of the random search is adaptively controlled in order to exploring and exploiting the entire search space. In order to improve the solutions, we consider coupling a local search into random search process. Several test systems are presented to evaluate the performance of the proposed heuristic. We use a commercial optimizer to compare the quality of the solutions provided by the proposed method. The solution of the proposed algorithm showed a significant reduction in computational effort with respect to the full-scale outer approximation commercial solver. Numerical results show the potential and robustness of our approach.
Bisadi, Zahra; Acerbi, Fabio; Fontana, Giorgio; Zorzi, Nicola; Piemonte, Claudio; Pucker, Georg; Pavesi, Lorenzo
2018-02-01
A small-sized photonic quantum random number generator, easy to be implemented in small electronic devices for secure data encryption and other applications, is highly demanding nowadays. Here, we propose a compact configuration with Silicon nanocrystals large area light emitting device (LED) coupled to a Silicon photomultiplier to generate random numbers. The random number generation methodology is based on the photon arrival time and is robust against the non-idealities of the detector and the source of quantum entropy. The raw data show high quality of randomness and pass all the statistical tests in national institute of standards and technology tests (NIST) suite without a post-processing algorithm. The highest bit rate is 0.5 Mbps with the efficiency of 4 bits per detected photon.
Generating Correlated QPSK Waveforms By Exploiting Real Gaussian Random Variables
Jardak, Seifallah
2012-11-01
The design of waveforms with specified auto- and cross-correlation properties has a number of applications in multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) radar, one of them is the desired transmit beampattern design. In this work, an algorithm is proposed to generate quadrature phase shift- keying (QPSK) waveforms with required cross-correlation properties using real Gaussian random-variables (RV’s). This work can be considered as the extension of what was presented in [1] to generate BPSK waveforms. This work will be extended for the generation of correlated higher-order phase shift-keying (PSK) and quadrature amplitude modulation (QAM) schemes that can better approximate the desired beampattern.
Generating Correlated QPSK Waveforms By Exploiting Real Gaussian Random Variables
Jardak, Seifallah; Ahmed, Sajid; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim
2012-01-01
The design of waveforms with specified auto- and cross-correlation properties has a number of applications in multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) radar, one of them is the desired transmit beampattern design. In this work, an algorithm is proposed to generate quadrature phase shift- keying (QPSK) waveforms with required cross-correlation properties using real Gaussian random-variables (RV’s). This work can be considered as the extension of what was presented in [1] to generate BPSK waveforms. This work will be extended for the generation of correlated higher-order phase shift-keying (PSK) and quadrature amplitude modulation (QAM) schemes that can better approximate the desired beampattern.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chakraborty, Brahmananda
2009-01-01
Random number plays an important role in any Monte Carlo simulation. The accuracy of the results depends on the quality of the sequence of random numbers employed in the simulation. These include randomness of the random numbers, uniformity of their distribution, absence of correlation and long period. In a typical Monte Carlo simulation of particle transport in a nuclear reactor core, the history of a particle from its birth in a fission event until its death by an absorption or leakage event is tracked. The geometry of the core and the surrounding materials are exactly modeled in the simulation. To track a neutron history one needs random numbers for determining inter collision distance, nature of the collision, the direction of the scattered neutron etc. Neutrons are tracked in batches. In one batch approximately 2000-5000 neutrons are tracked. The statistical accuracy of the results of the simulation depends on the total number of particles (number of particles in one batch multiplied by the number of batches) tracked. The number of histories to be generated is usually large for a typical radiation transport problem. To track a very large number of histories one needs to generate a long sequence of independent random numbers. In other words the cycle length of the random number generator (RNG) should be more than the total number of random numbers required for simulating the given transport problem. The number of bits of the machine generally limits the cycle length. For a binary machine of p bits the maximum cycle length is 2 p . To achieve higher cycle length in the same machine one has to use either register arithmetic or bit manipulation technique
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zahra Bisadi
2018-02-01
Full Text Available A small-sized photonic quantum random number generator, easy to be implemented in small electronic devices for secure data encryption and other applications, is highly demanding nowadays. Here, we propose a compact configuration with Silicon nanocrystals large area light emitting device (LED coupled to a Silicon photomultiplier to generate random numbers. The random number generation methodology is based on the photon arrival time and is robust against the non-idealities of the detector and the source of quantum entropy. The raw data show high quality of randomness and pass all the statistical tests in national institute of standards and technology tests (NIST suite without a post-processing algorithm. The highest bit rate is 0.5 Mbps with the efficiency of 4 bits per detected photon.
Pseudo random number generator based on quantum chaotic map
Akhshani, A.; Akhavan, A.; Mobaraki, A.; Lim, S.-C.; Hassan, Z.
2014-01-01
For many years dissipative quantum maps were widely used as informative models of quantum chaos. In this paper, a new scheme for generating good pseudo-random numbers (PRNG), based on quantum logistic map is proposed. Note that the PRNG merely relies on the equations used in the quantum chaotic map. The algorithm is not complex, which does not impose high requirement on computer hardware and thus computation speed is fast. In order to face the challenge of using the proposed PRNG in quantum cryptography and other practical applications, the proposed PRNG is subjected to statistical tests using well-known test suites such as NIST, DIEHARD, ENT and TestU01. The results of the statistical tests were promising, as the proposed PRNG successfully passed all these tests. Moreover, the degree of non-periodicity of the chaotic sequences of the quantum map is investigated through the Scale index technique. The obtained result shows that, the sequence is more non-periodic. From these results it can be concluded that, the new scheme can generate a high percentage of usable pseudo-random numbers for simulation and other applications in scientific computing.
Automatic generation of randomized trial sequences for priming experiments.
Ihrke, Matthias; Behrendt, Jörg
2011-01-01
In most psychological experiments, a randomized presentation of successive displays is crucial for the validity of the results. For some paradigms, this is not a trivial issue because trials are interdependent, e.g., priming paradigms. We present a software that automatically generates optimized trial sequences for (negative-) priming experiments. Our implementation is based on an optimization heuristic known as genetic algorithms that allows for an intuitive interpretation due to its similarity to natural evolution. The program features a graphical user interface that allows the user to generate trial sequences and to interactively improve them. The software is based on freely available software and is released under the GNU General Public License.
Scenario generation for electric vehicles' uncertain behavior in a smart city environment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Soares, João; Borges, Nuno; Fotouhi Ghazvini, Mohammad Ali; Vale, Zita; Moura Oliveira, P.B. de
2016-01-01
This paper presents a framework and methods to estimate electric vehicles' possible states, regarding their demand, location and grid connection periods. The proposed methods use the Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the probability of occurrence for each state and a fuzzy logic probabilistic approach to characterize the uncertainty of electric vehicles' demand. Day-ahead and hour-ahead methodologies are proposed to support the smart grids' operational decisions. A numerical example is presented using an electric vehicles fleet in a smart city environment to obtain each electric vehicle possible states regarding their grid location. - Highlights: • New concept/framework in smart cities context to estimate the states of electric vehicles and energy demand. • Monte Carlo Simulation and fuzzy logic probabilistic approach to support the envisaged concept. • A day-ahead and an hour-ahead stochastic scenarios generation to support the smart grid's operational decisions.
At least some errors are randomly generated (Freud was wrong)
Sellen, A. J.; Senders, J. W.
1986-01-01
An experiment was carried out to expose something about human error generating mechanisms. In the context of the experiment, an error was made when a subject pressed the wrong key on a computer keyboard or pressed no key at all in the time allotted. These might be considered, respectively, errors of substitution and errors of omission. Each of seven subjects saw a sequence of three digital numbers, made an easily learned binary judgement about each, and was to press the appropriate one of two keys. Each session consisted of 1,000 presentations of randomly permuted, fixed numbers broken into 10 blocks of 100. One of two keys should have been pressed within one second of the onset of each stimulus. These data were subjected to statistical analyses in order to probe the nature of the error generating mechanisms. Goodness of fit tests for a Poisson distribution for the number of errors per 50 trial interval and for an exponential distribution of the length of the intervals between errors were carried out. There is evidence for an endogenous mechanism that may best be described as a random error generator. Furthermore, an item analysis of the number of errors produced per stimulus suggests the existence of a second mechanism operating on task driven factors producing exogenous errors. Some errors, at least, are the result of constant probability generating mechanisms with error rate idiosyncratically determined for each subject.
Fully Digital Chaotic Oscillators Applied to Pseudo Random Number Generation
Mansingka, Abhinav S.
2012-05-01
adapted for pseudo random number generation by truncating statistically defective bits. Finally, a novel post-processing technique using the Fibonacci series is proposed and implemented with a non-autonomous driven hyperchaotic system to provide pseudo random number generators with high nonlinear complexity and controllable period length that enables full utilization of all branches of the chaotic output as statistically secure pseudo random output.
Direct generation of all-optical random numbers from optical pulse amplitude chaos.
Li, Pu; Wang, Yun-Cai; Wang, An-Bang; Yang, Ling-Zhen; Zhang, Ming-Jiang; Zhang, Jian-Zhong
2012-02-13
We propose and theoretically demonstrate an all-optical method for directly generating all-optical random numbers from pulse amplitude chaos produced by a mode-locked fiber ring laser. Under an appropriate pump intensity, the mode-locked laser can experience a quasi-periodic route to chaos. Such a chaos consists of a stream of pulses with a fixed repetition frequency but random intensities. In this method, we do not require sampling procedure and external triggered clocks but directly quantize the chaotic pulses stream into random number sequence via an all-optical flip-flop. Moreover, our simulation results show that the pulse amplitude chaos has no periodicity and possesses a highly symmetric distribution of amplitude. Thus, in theory, the obtained random number sequence without post-processing has a high-quality randomness verified by industry-standard statistical tests.
A programmable Gaussian random pulse generator for automated performance measurements
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Abdel-Aal, R.E.
1989-01-01
This paper describes a versatile random signal generator which produces logic pulses with a Gaussian distribution for the pulse spacing. The average rate at the pulse generator output can be software-programmed, which makes it useful in performing automated measurements of dead time and CPU time performance of data acquisition systems and modules over a wide range of data rates. Hardware and software components are described and data on the input-output characteristics and the statistical properties of the pulse generator are given. Typical applications are discussed together with advantages over using radioactive test sources. Results obtained from an automated performance run on a VAX 11/785 data acquisition system are presented. (orig.)
Catalytic micromotor generating self-propelled regular motion through random fluctuation
Yamamoto, Daigo; Mukai, Atsushi; Okita, Naoaki; Yoshikawa, Kenichi; Shioi, Akihisa
2013-07-01
Most of the current studies on nano/microscale motors to generate regular motion have adapted the strategy to fabricate a composite with different materials. In this paper, we report that a simple object solely made of platinum generates regular motion driven by a catalytic chemical reaction with hydrogen peroxide. Depending on the morphological symmetry of the catalytic particles, a rich variety of random and regular motions are observed. The experimental trend is well reproduced by a simple theoretical model by taking into account of the anisotropic viscous effect on the self-propelled active Brownian fluctuation.
Long period pseudo random number sequence generator
Wang, Charles C. (Inventor)
1989-01-01
A circuit for generating a sequence of pseudo random numbers, (A sub K). There is an exponentiator in GF(2 sup m) for the normal basis representation of elements in a finite field GF(2 sup m) each represented by m binary digits and having two inputs and an output from which the sequence (A sub K). Of pseudo random numbers is taken. One of the two inputs is connected to receive the outputs (E sub K) of maximal length shift register of n stages. There is a switch having a pair of inputs and an output. The switch outputs is connected to the other of the two inputs of the exponentiator. One of the switch inputs is connected for initially receiving a primitive element (A sub O) in GF(2 sup m). Finally, there is a delay circuit having an input and an output. The delay circuit output is connected to the other of the switch inputs and the delay circuit input is connected to the output of the exponentiator. Whereby after the exponentiator initially receives the primitive element (A sub O) in GF(2 sup m) through the switch, the switch can be switched to cause the exponentiator to receive as its input a delayed output A(K-1) from the exponentiator thereby generating (A sub K) continuously at the output of the exponentiator. The exponentiator in GF(2 sup m) is novel and comprises a cyclic-shift circuit; a Massey-Omura multiplier; and, a control logic circuit all operably connected together to perform the function U(sub i) = 92(sup i) (for n(sub i) = 1 or 1 (for n(subi) = 0).
Scope of Various Random Number Generators in ant System Approach for TSP
Sen, S. K.; Shaykhian, Gholam Ali
2007-01-01
Experimented on heuristic, based on an ant system approach for traveling salesman problem, are several quasi- and pseudo-random number generators. This experiment is to explore if any particular generator is most desirable. Such an experiment on large samples has the potential to rank the performance of the generators for the foregoing heuristic. This is mainly to seek an answer to the controversial issue "which generator is the best in terms of quality of the result (accuracy) as well as cost of producing the result (time/computational complexity) in a probabilistic/statistical sense."
Exploring Persona-Scenarios - Using Storytelling to Create Design Ideas
Madsen, Sabine; Nielsen, Lene
This paper explores the persona-scenario method by investigating how the method can support project participants in generating shared understandings and design ideas. As persona-scenarios are stories we draw on narrative theory to define what a persona-scenario is and which narrative elements it should consist of. Based on an empirical study a key finding is that despite our inherent human ability to construct, tell, and interpret stories it is not easy to write and present a good, coherent, and design-oriented story without methodical support. The paper therefore contributes with guidelines that delineate a) what a design-oriented persona-scenario should consist of (product) and b) how to write it (procedure) in order to generate and validate as many, new, and shared understandings and design ideas as possible (purpose). The purpose of the guidelines is to facilitate the construction of persona-scenarios as good, coherent stories, which make sense to the storytellers and to the audience - and which therefore generate many, new, and shared understandings and design ideas.
Cassie state robustness of plasma generated randomly nano-rough surfaces
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Di Mundo, Rosa, E-mail: rosa.dimundo@poliba.it; Bottiglione, Francesco; Carbone, Giuseppe
2014-10-15
Graphical abstract: - Highlights: • Superhydrophobic randomly rough surfaces are generated by plasma etching. • Statistical analysis of roughness allows calculation of theWenzel roughness factor, r{sub W.} • A r{sub W} threshold is theoretically determined, above which superhydrophobicity is “robust”. • Dynamic wetting, e.g. with high speed impacting drops, confirms this prediction. - Abstract: Superhydrophobic surfaces are effective in practical applications provided they are “robust superhydrophobic”, i.e. able to retain the Cassie state, i.e. with water suspended onto the surface protrusions, even under severe conditions (high pressure, vibrations, high speed impact, etc.). We show that for randomly rough surfaces, given the Young angle, Cassie states are robust when a threshold value of the Wenzel roughness factor, r{sub W}, is exceeded. In particular, superhydrophobic nano-textured surfaces have been generated by self-masked plasma etching. In view of their random roughness, topography features, acquired by Atomic Force Microscopy, have been statistically analyzed in order to gain information on statistical parameters such as power spectral density, fractal dimension and Wenzel roughness factor (r{sub W}), which has been used to assess Cassie state robustness. Results indicate that randomly rough surfaces produced by plasma at high power or long treatment duration, which are also fractal self-affine, have a r{sub W} higher than the theoretical threshold, thus for them a robust superhydrophobicity is predicted. In agreement with this, under dynamic wetting conditionson these surfaces the most pronounced superhydrophobic character has been appreciated: they show the lowest contact angle hysteresis and result in the sharpest bouncing when hit by drops at high impact velocity.
Molotkov, S. N.
2017-03-01
Various methods for the clustering of photocounts constituting a sequence of random numbers are considered. It is shown that the clustering of photocounts resulting in the Fermi-Dirac distribution makes it possible to achieve the theoretical limit of the random number generation rate.
Energy scenarios for the nordic region towards 2035
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Fidje, Audun
2008-07-01
This report summarizes the assumptions, methodology and main results of the MARKAL analysis of options for a sustainable energy future in the Nordic region. The work is based on the Nordic MARKAL model, which has been modified such that it may be used to analyse a large number of scenarios, typically 500 to 5000. The scenarios are developed by analysis a set of strategies and uncertainties. All these strategies and uncertainties are combined such that we generate in total 1 152 scenarios. The main purpose of generating a large number of scenarios was to facilitate for multi-criteria trade-off analysis. Overall results from this analysis show that large reductions of CO{sub 2} emissions are possible at CO{sub 2} cost below 50 EUR/t CO{sub 2} (author)
Scenario analysis on future electricity supply and demand in Japan
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhang, Qi; Ishihara, Keiichi N.; Mclellan, Benjamin C.; Tezuka, Tetsuo
2012-01-01
Under continuing policies of CO 2 emissions reduction, it is crucial to consider scenarios for Japan to realize a safe and clean future electricity system. The development plans for nuclear power and renewable energy - particularly solar and wind power - are being reconsidered in light of the Fukushima nuclear accident. To contribute to this, in the present study, three electricity supply scenarios for 2030 are proposed according to different future nuclear power development policies, and the maximum penetration of renewable energy generation is pursued. On the other side of the equation, three electricity demand scenarios are also proposed considering potential energy saving measures. The purpose of the study is to demonstrate quantitatively the technological, economic and environmental impacts of different supply policy selections and demand assumptions on future electricity systems. The scenario analysis is conducted using an input–output hour-by-hour simulation model subject to constraints from technological, economic and environmental perspectives. The obtained installed capacity mix, power generation mix, CO 2 emissions, and generation cost of the scenarios were inter-compared and analyzed. The penetration of renewable energy generation in a future electricity system in Japan, as well as its relationship with nuclear power share was uncovered. -- Highlights: ► Scenario analysis is conducted on future electricity systems under different supply policies and demand assumptions. ► Scenario analysis is conducted using a input–output hour-by-hour simulation model for real-time demand-supply balance. ► The technological, economic and environmental impacts of supply policies and demand assumptions on future electricity systems are studied. ► The maximum penetration of renewable energy generation is pursued in the scenario analysis using the hour-by-hour simulation. ► The relationship between the penetration levels of renewable energy and nuclear power
Three-dimensional pseudo-random number generator for implementing in hybrid computer systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ivanov, M.A.; Vasil'ev, N.P.; Voronin, A.V.; Kravtsov, M.Yu.; Maksutov, A.A.; Spiridonov, A.A.; Khudyakova, V.I.; Chugunkov, I.V.
2012-01-01
The algorithm for generating pseudo-random numbers oriented to implementation by using hybrid computer systems is considered. The proposed solution is characterized by a high degree of parallel computing [ru
Power sector scenarios for Thailand: An exploratory analysis 2002-2022
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mulugetta, Yacob; Mantajit, Nathinee; Jackson, Tim
2007-01-01
Power sector scenarios for Thailand are constructed in this paper to represent the range of opportunities and constraints associated with divergent set of technical and policy options. They include Business-As-Usual (BAU), No-New-Coal (NNC), and Green Futures (GF) scenarios over a 20-year period (2002-2022). The results from the BAU scenario show that fossil fuels will continue to dominate electricity generation in Thailand during the study period. Similar results are obtained for the NNC option, although the dependence shifts from coal and oil towards natural gas-based power generation. This may represent a better environmental pathway but an all out shift from coal to natural gas is likely to increase Thailand's dependence on imported fuel, making it more vulnerable to unstable global oil and gas prices. The GF scenario offers a more optimistic route that allows the country to confront its energy security dilemma whilst fulfilling its environmental commitments by giving renewable energy technologies a prominent place in the country's power generation mix. Over the study period, our result showed little difference between the three scenarios in terms of financing new generation plants despite an early misgiving about the viability of an ambitious renewable energy programme. This paper also goes beyond the financial evaluation of each scenario to provide a comparison of the scenarios in terms of their greenhouse gas emissions together with the comparative costs of emissions reductions. Indeed, if such externalities are taken into account to determine 'viability', the GF scenario represents an attractive way forward for the Thai power sector
Strenge, Hans; Niederberger, Uwe
2008-06-01
The interference effect between Grooved Pegboard task with either hand and the executive task of cued verbal random number generation was investigated. 24 normal right-handed subjects performed each task under separate (single-task) and concurrent (dual-task) conditions. Articulatory suppression was required as an additional secondary task during pegboard performance. Analysis indicated an unambiguous distinction between the two hands. Comparisons of single-task and dual-task conditions showed an asymmetrical pattern of unidirectional interference with no practice effects during pegboard performance. Concurrent performance with nondominant hand but not the dominant hand of random number generation performance became continuously slower. There was no effect of divided attention on pegboard performance. Findings support the idea that the nondominant hand on the pegboard and random number tasks draw from the same processing resources but that for the executive aspect random number generation is more sensitive to changes in allocation of attentional resources.
GenRGenS: Software for Generating Random Genomic Sequences and Structures
Ponty , Yann; Termier , Michel; Denise , Alain
2006-01-01
International audience; GenRGenS is a software tool dedicated to randomly generating genomic sequences and structures. It handles several classes of models useful for sequence analysis, such as Markov chains, hidden Markov models, weighted context-free grammars, regular expressions and PROSITE expressions. GenRGenS is the only program that can handle weighted context-free grammars, thus allowing the user to model and to generate structured objects (such as RNA secondary structures) of any giv...
Grazziotin, Pablo Colossi
2016-01-01
This research presents the development of CityZoom UP, the first attempt to extend existing urban planning software in order to assist in modelling urban scenarios and setting up simulation parameters for Gaussian dispersion and CFD models. Based on the previous capabilities and graphic user interfaces of CityZoom to model and validate urban scenarios based on Master Plan regulations, new graphic user interfaces, automatic mesh generation and data conversion algorithms have been created to se...
Scenario-based approach to risk analysis in support of cyber security
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gertman, D. I.; Folkers, R.; Roberts, J. [Idaho National Laboratory, Roberts and Folkers Associates, LLC, Idaho Falls, ID 83404 (United States)
2006-07-01
control systems, perpetrators will attempt to control and defeat automation systems, engineering access, control systems and protective systems implemented in today's critical infrastructures. Major systems such as supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems are likely targets for attack. Not all attack scenarios have the same expected frequency or consequence. The attacks will be directed and structured and thus, are not be characterized as random events when one considers failure probabilities. Attack types differ in their consequence as a function of the probability associated with various sub events in the presence of specific system configurations. Ideally, a series of generic scenarios can be identified for each of the major critical infrastructure (CI) sectors. A scenario-based approach to risk assessment allows decision makers to place financial and personnel resources in-place for attacks that truly matter: e.g. attacks that generate physical and economic damage. The use of scenario-based analysis allows risk reduction goals to be informed by more than consequence analysis alone. The key CI targets used in the present study were identified previously as part of a mid-level consequence analysis performed at INL by the Control System Security Program (CSSP) for the National Cyber Security Div. (NCSD) of the Dept. of Homeland Security (DHS). This paper discusses the process for and results associated with the development of scenario-based cyber attacks upon control systems including the information and personnel requirements for scenario development. Challenges to scenario development including completeness and uncertainty characterization are discussed as well. Further, the scenario discussed herein, is one of a number of scenarios for infrastructures currently under review. (authors)
Scenario-based approach to risk analysis in support of cyber security
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gertman, D. I.; Folkers, R.; Roberts, J.
2006-01-01
control systems, perpetrators will attempt to control and defeat automation systems, engineering access, control systems and protective systems implemented in today's critical infrastructures. Major systems such as supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems are likely targets for attack. Not all attack scenarios have the same expected frequency or consequence. The attacks will be directed and structured and thus, are not be characterized as random events when one considers failure probabilities. Attack types differ in their consequence as a function of the probability associated with various sub events in the presence of specific system configurations. Ideally, a series of generic scenarios can be identified for each of the major critical infrastructure (CI) sectors. A scenario-based approach to risk assessment allows decision makers to place financial and personnel resources in-place for attacks that truly matter: e.g. attacks that generate physical and economic damage. The use of scenario-based analysis allows risk reduction goals to be informed by more than consequence analysis alone. The key CI targets used in the present study were identified previously as part of a mid-level consequence analysis performed at INL by the Control System Security Program (CSSP) for the National Cyber Security Div. (NCSD) of the Dept. of Homeland Security (DHS). This paper discusses the process for and results associated with the development of scenario-based cyber attacks upon control systems including the information and personnel requirements for scenario development. Challenges to scenario development including completeness and uncertainty characterization are discussed as well. Further, the scenario discussed herein, is one of a number of scenarios for infrastructures currently under review. (authors)
O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov
2008-12-01
Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants
Ceran, Bartosz
2017-11-01
The paper presents the results of the use of multi-criteria analysis to compare hybrid power generation system collaboration scenarios (HSW) consisting of wind turbines, solar panels and energy storage electrolyzer - PEM type fuel cell with electricity system. The following scenarios were examined: the base S-I-hybrid system powers the off-grid mode receiver, S-II, S-III, S-IV scenarios-electricity system covers 25%, 50%, 75% of energy demand by the recipient. The effect of weights of the above-mentioned criteria on the final result of the multi-criteria analysis was examined.
The non-stationarity is a major concern for statistically downscaling climate change scenarios for impact assessment. This study is to evaluate whether a statistical downscaling method is fully applicable to generate daily precipitation under non-stationary conditions in a wide range of climatic zo...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tobin, Isabelle; Vautard, Robert; Noël, Thomas; Jerez, Sonia; Thais, Françoise; Van Meijgaard, Erik; Prein, Andreas; Déqué, Michel; Kotlarski, Sven; Maule, Cathrine Fox; Nikulin, Grigory; Teichmann, Claas
2016-01-01
Wind energy resource is subject to changes in climate. To investigate the impacts of climate change on future European wind power generation potential, we analyze a multi-model ensemble of the most recent EURO-CORDEX regional climate simulations at the 12 km grid resolution. We developed a mid-century wind power plant scenario to focus the impact assessment on relevant locations for future wind power industry. We found that, under two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, changes in the annual energy yield of the future European wind farms fleet as a whole will remain within ±5% across the 21st century. At country to local scales, wind farm yields will undergo changes up to 15% in magnitude, according to the large majority of models, but smaller than 5% in magnitude for most regions and models. The southern fleets such as the Iberian and Italian fleets are likely to be the most affected. With regard to variability, changes are essentially small or poorly significant from subdaily to interannual time scales. (letter)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alan Delgado de Oliveira
Full Text Available ABSTRACT In this paper, we provide an empirical discussion of the differences among some scenario tree-generation approaches for stochastic programming. We consider the classical Monte Carlo sampling and Moment matching methods. Moreover, we test the Resampled average approximation, which is an adaptation of Monte Carlo sampling and Monte Carlo with naive allocation strategy as the benchmark. We test the empirical effects of each approach on the stability of the problem objective function and initial portfolio allocation, using a multistage stochastic chance-constrained asset-liability management (ALM model as the application. The Moment matching and Resampled average approximation are more stable than the other two strategies.
A portable high-quality random number generator for lattice field theory simulations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Luescher, M.
1993-09-01
The theory underlying a proposed random number generator for numerical simulations in elementary particle physics and statistical mechanics is discussed. The generator is based on an algorithm introduced by Marsaglia and Zaman, with an important added feature leading to demonstrably good statistical properties. It can be implemented exactly on any computer complying with the IEEE-754 standard for single precision floating point arithmetic. (orig.)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Peng Wang
2018-06-01
Full Text Available Reasonable and effective power planning contributes a lot to energy efficiency improvement, as well as the formulation of future economic and energy policies for a region. Since only a few provinces in China have nuclear power plants so far, nuclear power plants were not considered in many provincial-level power planning models. As an extremely important source of power generation in the future, the role of nuclear power plants can never be overlooked. In this paper, a comprehensive and detailed optimization model of provincial-level power generation expansion considering biomass and nuclear power plants is established from the perspective of electricity demand uncertainty. This model has been successfully applied to the case study of Zhejiang Province. The findings suggest that the nuclear power plants will contribute 9.56% of the total installed capacity, and it will become the second stable electricity source. The lowest total discounted cost is 1033.28 billion RMB and the fuel cost accounts for a large part of the total cost (about 69%. Different key performance indicators (KPI differentiate electricity demand in scenarios that are used to test the model. Low electricity demand in the development mode of the comprehensive adjustment scenario (COML produces the optimal power development path, as it provides the lowest discounted cost.
A method for the generation of random multiple Coulomb scattering angles
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Campbell, J.R.
1995-06-01
A method for the random generation of spatial angles drawn from non-Gaussian multiple Coulomb scattering distributions is presented. The method employs direct numerical inversion of cumulative probability distributions computed from the universal non-Gaussian angular distributions of Marion and Zimmerman. (author). 12 refs., 3 figs
Thompson, J. R.; Taylor, M. S.
1982-01-01
Let X be a K-dimensional random variable serving as input for a system with output Y (not necessarily of dimension k). given X, an outcome Y or a distribution of outcomes G(Y/X) may be obtained either explicitly or implicity. The situation is considered in which there is a real world data set X sub j sub = 1 (n) and a means of simulating an outcome Y. A method for empirical random number generation based on the sample of observations of the random variable X without estimating the underlying density is discussed.
The new socio-economic scenarios for climate change research
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Guivarch, C.; Rozenberg, J.
2013-01-01
The scientific community is developing a new generation of scenarios to inform the choices we have to make when it comes to responding to climate change. This new generation of scenarios integrates more fully the mechanisms that regulate climate and provides insights to spatial and temporal resolutions unexplored in previous exercises. In addition, it gives a framework for integrating explicit climate policies for mitigation and adaptation, which allows assessing the benefits and costs of climate policies in different socio-economic scenarios. Finally, it introduces a new way of working that strengthens the collaboration between different research communities on climate change. (authors)
The future of nuclear power in China: Long-term scenarios - 5129
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Paltsev, S.; Zhang, D.
2015-01-01
Nuclear power will play an important role in reaching China government's 2020 goal of raising the proportion of energy produced by non-fossil fuel to 15 percent and stabilizing carbon emissions by 2030. It will also contribute to lower air pollution emissions. In the medium scenario, nuclear power development is constrained by the available sites verified in preliminary explorations. The installed nuclear power capacity reaches 160 GW by 2050. Nuclear generation grows ten times relative to the current capacity, but a share of nuclear power is still only 10% of total electricity generation in China by 2050. In the high scenario, the installed nuclear power capacity reaches 400 GW by 2050, which provides about 30% of electricity by 2050. In the low scenario of no licensing for new sites, the installed nuclear power capacity reaches 95 GW by 2050. For environmental impacts, in 2050 high scenario leads to about 20% reduction in total China's CO 2 emissions and about 25% reduction in a major air pollutant SO 2 relative to medium scenario. Availability of relatively cheap natural gas for electricity mostly replaces coal-based generation while keeping similar profiles for nuclear generation as in the high cost natural gas scenarios. (authors)
Aleksandrova, Irena; Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Popova, Maria
2014-05-01
Among the many kinds of natural and man-made disasters, earthquakes dominate with regard to their social and economical impact on the urban environment. Global seismic risk to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization and development occupy more areas that a prone to effects of strong earthquakes. Additionally, the uncontrolled growth of mega cities in highly seismic areas around the world is often associated with the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, and undertaken with an insufficient knowledge of the regional seismicity peculiarities and seismic hazard. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first link in the prevention chain and the first step in the evaluation of the seismic risk. The earthquake scenarios are intended as a basic input for developing detailed earthquake damage scenarios for the cities and can be used in earthquake-safe town and infrastructure planning. The city of Sofia is the capital of Bulgaria. It is situated in the centre of the Sofia area that is the most populated (the population is of more than 1.2 mil. inhabitants), industrial and cultural region of Bulgaria that faces considerable earthquake risk. The available historical documents prove the occurrence of destructive earthquakes during the 15th-18th centuries in the Sofia zone. In 19th century the city of Sofia has experienced two strong earthquakes: the 1818 earthquake with epicentral intensity I0=8-9 MSK and the 1858 earthquake with I0=9-10 MSK. During the 20th century the strongest event occurred in the vicinity of the city of Sofia is the 1917 earthquake with MS=5.3 (I0=7-8 MSK). Almost a century later (95 years) an earthquake of moment magnitude 5.6 (I0=7-8 MSK) hit the city of Sofia, on May 22nd, 2012. In the present study as a deterministic scenario event is considered a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence that could affect the city with intensity less than or equal to VIII
Ossola, Giovanni; Sokal, Alan D
2004-08-01
We show that linear congruential pseudo-random-number generators can cause systematic errors in Monte Carlo simulations using the Swendsen-Wang algorithm, if the lattice size is a multiple of a very large power of 2 and one random number is used per bond. These systematic errors arise from correlations within a single bond-update half-sweep. The errors can be eliminated (or at least radically reduced) by updating the bonds in a random order or in an aperiodic manner. It also helps to use a generator of large modulus (e.g., 60 or more bits).
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Khvedelidze Arsen
2018-01-01
Full Text Available The generation of random mixed states is discussed, aiming for the computation of probabilistic characteristics of composite finite dimensional quantum systems. In particular, we consider the generation of random Hilbert-Schmidt and Bures ensembles of qubit and qutrit pairs and compute the corresponding probabilities to find a separable state among the states of a fixed rank.
Scenarios for Ecosystem Services: An Overview
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Stephen R. Carpenter
2006-06-01
Full Text Available The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA scenarios address changes in ecosystem services and their implications for human well-being. Ecological changes pose special challenges for long-term thinking, because of the possibility of regime shifts that occur rapidly yet alter the availability of ecosystem services for generations. Moreover, ecological feedbacks can intensify human modification of ecosystems, creating a spiral of poverty and ecosystem degradation. Such complex dynamics were evaluated by a mixture of qualitative and quantitative analyses in the MA scenarios. Collectively, the scenarios explore problems such as the connections of poverty reduction and ecosystem services, and trade-offs among ecosystem services. Several promising approaches are considered by the scenarios, including uses of biodiversity to build resilience of ecosystem services, actively adaptive management, and green technology. Although the scenarios do not prescribe an optimal path, they illuminate the consequences of different policies toward ecosystem services.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
NONE
2001-03-01
An examination was conducted concerning the course of spread of distributed power generation (on-site power generation of 2,000 kW or less) by the year 2010, with three scenarios prepared. In the scenario 1, the government will completely deregulates the power market and take no other steps, leaving the matter to market competition. The universal service will be abandoned, which means higher power prices for remote regions, contributing to the spread of home power generation. In the scenario 2, the government, having reached the limits of the nuclear propulsion policy, will adopt natural gas as the center of its electrical power policy, providing preferential treatments such as subsidies and tax exemptions and requesting the power companies to increase their usage. This will lead to higher transmission charges, with distributed power generation more advantageous to the IPPs in terms of cost. In the scenario 3, environmental awareness will make increase in the capacity quite difficult including power generation facilities and transmission/distribution network, and will invite a power crisis in the long run through insufficient capacity in power generation and transmission/distribution volume. Distributed power generation requiring no reinforcement to the grid will spread such as household-use type without system interconnection, solar cells or small fuel cells. (NEDO)
Scenario analysis of the new energy policy for Taiwan's electricity sector until 2025
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chen, Fung-Fei; Chou, Seng-Cho; Lu, Tai-Ken
2013-01-01
For this study, we constructed the following three case scenarios based on the Taiwanese government's energy policy: a normal scenario, the 2008 “Sustainable Energy Policy Convention” scenario, and the 2011 “New Energy Policy” scenario. We then employed a long-term Generation Expansion Planning (GEP) optimization model to compare the three case scenarios' energy mix for power generation for the next å15 years to further explore their possible impact on the electricity sector. The results provide a reference for forming future energy policies and developing strategic responses. - Highlights: • We constructed three case scenarios based on the Taiwan government's energy policy. • We employed a long-term Generation Expansion Planning optimization model. • A significant gap exists between the carbon reduction target and baseline. • The carbon reduction target requires a holistic resolution needed taking seriously
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Walton, J.; Weston, A.; Lee, E.
1984-06-26
The Department of Energy (DOE) commissioned a study leading to a final report (NUS-4543, Report of the Shuttle Transportation System (STS) Explosion Working Group (EWG), June 8, 1984), concerned with PuO/sub 2/ dispersal should the NASA space shuttle explode during the proposed Galileo and ISPN launches planned for 1986. At DOE's request, LLNL furnished appendices that describe hydrocode KOVEC calculations of potential damage to the Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators, fueled by PuO/sub 2/, should certain explosion scenarios occur. These appendices are contained in this report.
Lee, Jeffrey S; Cleaver, Gerald B
2017-10-01
In this note, the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) Radiation is shown to be capable of functioning as a Random Bit Generator, and constitutes an effectively infinite supply of truly random one-time pad values of arbitrary length. It is further argued that the CMB power spectrum potentially conforms to the FIPS 140-2 standard. Additionally, its applicability to the generation of a (n × n) random key matrix for a Vernam cipher is established.
Assessing Threat Detection Scenarios through Hypothesis Generation and Testing
2015-12-01
Publications. Field, A. (2005). Discovering statistics using SPSS (2nd ed.). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications. Fisher, S. D., Gettys, C. F...therefore, subsequent F statistics are reported using the Huynh-Feldt correction (Greenhouse-Geisser Epsilon > .775). Experienced and inexperienced...change in hypothesis using experience and initial confidence as predictors. In the Dog Day scenario, the regression was not statistically
Ontario demand response scenarios
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rowlands, I.H.
2005-09-01
Strategies for demand management in Ontario were examined via 2 scenarios for a commercial/institutional building with a normal summertime peak load of 300 kW between 14:00 and 18:00 during a period of high electricity demand and high electricity prices. The first scenario involved the deployment of a 150 kW on-site generator fuelled by either diesel or natural gas. The second scenario involved curtailing load by 60 kW during the same periods. Costs and benefits of both scenarios were evaluated for 3 groups: consumers, system operators and society. Benefits included electricity cost savings, deferred transmission capacity development, lower system prices for electricity, as well as environmental changes, economic development, and a greater sense of corporate social responsibility. It was noted that while significant benefits were observed for all 3 groups, they were not substantial enough to encourage action, as the savings arising from deferred generation capacity development do not accrue to individual players. The largest potential benefit was identified as lower prices, spread across all users of electricity in Ontario. It was recommended that representative bodies cooperate so that the system-wide benefits can be reaped. It was noted that if 10 municipal utilities were able to have 250 commercial or institutional customers engaged in distributed response, then a total peak demand reduction of 375 MW could be achieved, representing more than 25 per cent of Ontario's target for energy conservation. It was concluded that demand response often involves the investment of capital and new on-site procedures, which may affect reactions to various incentives. 78 refs., 10 tabs., 5 figs
Li, Jiafu; Xiang, Shuiying; Wang, Haoning; Gong, Junkai; Wen, Aijun
2018-03-01
In this paper, a novel image encryption algorithm based on synchronization of physical random bit generated in a cascade-coupled semiconductor ring lasers (CCSRL) system is proposed, and the security analysis is performed. In both transmitter and receiver parts, the CCSRL system is a master-slave configuration consisting of a master semiconductor ring laser (M-SRL) with cross-feedback and a solitary SRL (S-SRL). The proposed image encryption algorithm includes image preprocessing based on conventional chaotic maps, pixel confusion based on control matrix extracted from physical random bit, and pixel diffusion based on random bit stream extracted from physical random bit. Firstly, the preprocessing method is used to eliminate the correlation between adjacent pixels. Secondly, physical random bit with verified randomness is generated based on chaos in the CCSRL system, and is used to simultaneously generate the control matrix and random bit stream. Finally, the control matrix and random bit stream are used for the encryption algorithm in order to change the position and the values of pixels, respectively. Simulation results and security analysis demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is effective and able to resist various typical attacks, and thus is an excellent candidate for secure image communication application.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Batlle, C.; Barquin, J.
2004-01-01
This paper presents a fuel prices scenario generator in the frame of a simulation tool developed to support risk analysis in a competitive electricity environment. The tool feeds different erogenous risk factors to a wholesale electricity market model to perform a statistical analysis of the results. As the different fuel series that are studied, such as the oil or gas ones, present stochastic volatility and strong correlation among them, a multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (GARCH) model has been designed in order to allow the generation of future fuel prices paths. The model makes use of a decomposition method to simplify the consideration of the multidimensional conditional covariance. An example of its application with real data is also presented. (author)
40 CFR 761.308 - Sample selection by random number generation on any two-dimensional square grid.
2010-07-01
... 40 Protection of Environment 30 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Sample selection by random number... § 761.79(b)(3) § 761.308 Sample selection by random number generation on any two-dimensional square... area created in accordance with paragraph (a) of this section, select two random numbers: one each for...
Jahanshahi, M; Profice, P; Brown, R G; Ridding, M C; Dirnberger, G; Rothwell, J C
1998-08-01
Random number generation is an attention-demanding task that engages working memory and executive processes. Random number generation requires holding information 'on line', suppression of habitual counting, internally driven response generation and monitoring of responses. Evidence from PET studies suggests that the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) is involved in the generation of random responses. We examined the effects of short trains of transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) over the left or right DLPFC or medial frontal cortex on random number generation in healthy normal participants. As in previous evidence, in control trials without stimulation participants performed poorly on the random number generation task, showing repetition avoidance and a tendency to count. Brief disruption of processing with TMS over the left DLPFC changed the balance of the individuals' counting bias, increasing the most habitual counting in ones and reducing the lower probability response of counting in twos. This differential effect of TMS over the left DLPFC on the balance of the subject's counting bias was not obtained with TMS over the right DLPFC or the medial frontal cortex. The results suggest that, with disruption of the left DLPFC with TMS, habitual counting in ones that has previously been suppressed is released from inhibition. From these findings a network modulation model of random number generation is proposed, whereby suppression of habitual responses is achieved through the modulatory influence of the left DLPFC over a number-associative network in the superior temporal cortex. To allow emergence of appropriate random responses, the left DLPFC inhibits the superior temporal cortex to prevent spreading activation and habitual counting in ones.
Special Operations Reconnaissance (SOR) Scenario: Intelligence Analysis and Mission Planning
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Warner, Norman; Burkman, Lisa; Biron, H. C
2008-01-01
...) scenario and the methodology used to generate and validate the scenario. The face of military team collaboration has changed due to gathering intelligence from broader and more diverse sources...
An efficient algorithm for generating random number pairs drawn from a bivariate normal distribution
Campbell, C. W.
1983-01-01
An efficient algorithm for generating random number pairs from a bivariate normal distribution was developed. Any desired value of the two means, two standard deviations, and correlation coefficient can be selected. Theoretically the technique is exact and in practice its accuracy is limited only by the quality of the uniform distribution random number generator, inaccuracies in computer function evaluation, and arithmetic. A FORTRAN routine was written to check the algorithm and good accuracy was obtained. Some small errors in the correlation coefficient were observed to vary in a surprisingly regular manner. A simple model was developed which explained the qualities aspects of the errors.
Application of random number generators in genetic algorithms to improve rainfall-runoff modelling
Chlumecký, Martin; Buchtele, Josef; Richta, Karel
2017-10-01
The efficient calibration of rainfall-runoff models is a difficult issue, even for experienced hydrologists. Therefore, fast and high-quality model calibration is a valuable improvement. This paper describes a novel methodology and software for the optimisation of a rainfall-runoff modelling using a genetic algorithm (GA) with a newly prepared concept of a random number generator (HRNG), which is the core of the optimisation. The GA estimates model parameters using evolutionary principles, which requires a quality number generator. The new HRNG generates random numbers based on hydrological information and it provides better numbers compared to pure software generators. The GA enhances the model calibration very well and the goal is to optimise the calibration of the model with a minimum of user interaction. This article focuses on improving the internal structure of the GA, which is shielded from the user. The results that we obtained indicate that the HRNG provides a stable trend in the output quality of the model, despite various configurations of the GA. In contrast to previous research, the HRNG speeds up the calibration of the model and offers an improvement of rainfall-runoff modelling.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rao, C. Srinivasa [EEE Department, G. Pulla Reddy Engineering College, Kurnool, Andhra Pradesh (India); Nagaraju, S. Siva [EEE Department, J.N.T.U College of Engg., Kakinada, Andhra Pradesh (India); Raju, P. Sangameswara [EEE Department, S.V. University, Tirupati, Andhra Pradesh (India)
2009-09-15
This paper presents the analysis of automatic generation control of a two-area interconnected thyristor controlled phase shifter based hydrothermal system in the continuous mode using fuzzy logic controller under open market scenario. Open transmission access and the evolving of more socialized companies for generation, transmission and distribution affects the formulation of AGC problem. So the traditional AGC two-area system is modified to take into account the effect of bilateral contracts on the dynamics. It is possible to stabilize the system frequency and tie-power oscillations by controlling the phase angle of TCPS which is expected to provide a new ancillary service for the future power systems. A control strategy using TCPS is proposed to provide active control of system frequency. Further dynamic responses for small perturbation considering fuzzy logic controller and PI controller (dual mode controller) have been observed and the superior performance of fuzzy logic controller has been reported analytically and also through simulation. (author)
Large Ensemble Analytic Framework for Consequence-Driven Discovery of Climate Change Scenarios
Lamontagne, Jonathan R.; Reed, Patrick M.; Link, Robert; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.
2018-03-01
An analytic scenario generation framework is developed based on the idea that the same climate outcome can result from very different socioeconomic and policy drivers. The framework builds on the Scenario Matrix Framework's abstraction of "challenges to mitigation" and "challenges to adaptation" to facilitate the flexible discovery of diverse and consequential scenarios. We combine visual and statistical techniques for interrogating a large factorial data set of 33,750 scenarios generated using the Global Change Assessment Model. We demonstrate how the analytic framework can aid in identifying which scenario assumptions are most tied to user-specified measures for policy relevant outcomes of interest, specifically for our example high or low mitigation costs. We show that the current approach for selecting reference scenarios can miss policy relevant scenario narratives that often emerge as hybrids of optimistic and pessimistic scenario assumptions. We also show that the same scenario assumption can be associated with both high and low mitigation costs depending on the climate outcome of interest and the mitigation policy context. In the illustrative example, we show how agricultural productivity, population growth, and economic growth are most predictive of the level of mitigation costs. Formulating policy relevant scenarios of deeply and broadly uncertain futures benefits from large ensemble-based exploration of quantitative measures of consequences. To this end, we have contributed a large database of climate change futures that can support "bottom-up" scenario generation techniques that capture a broader array of consequences than those that emerge from limited sampling of a few reference scenarios.
Rodriguez, M. A.; Carreras-Sospedra, M.; Medrano, M.; Brouwer, J.; Samuelsen, G. S.; Dabdub, D.
Distributed generation (DG) is generally defined as the operation of many small stationary power generators throughout an urban air basin. Although DG has the potential to supply a significant portion of the increased power demands in California and the rest of the United States, it may lead to increased levels of in-basin pollutants and adversely impact urban air quality. This study focuses on two main objectives: (1) the systematic characterization of DG installation in urban air basins, and (2) the simulation of potential air quality impacts using a state-of-the-art three-dimensional computational model. A general and systematic approach is devised to construct five realistic and 21 spanning scenarios of DG implementation in the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) of California. Realistic scenarios reflect an anticipated level of DG deployment in the SoCAB by the year 2010. Spanning scenarios are developed to determine the potential impacts of unexpected outcomes. Realistic implementations of DG in the SoCAB result in small differences in ozone and particulate matter concentrations in the basin compared to the baseline simulations. The baseline accounts for population increase, but does not consider any future emissions control measures. Model results for spanning implementations with extra high DG market penetration show that domain-wide ozone peak concentrations increase significantly. Also, air quality impacts of spanning implementations when DG operate during a 6-h period are larger than when the same amount of emissions are introduced during a 24-h period.
Boonsathorn, Wasita; Charoen, Danuvasin; Dryver, Arthur L.
2014-01-01
E-Learning brings access to a powerful but often overlooked teaching tool: random number generation. Using random number generation, a practically infinite number of quantitative problem-solution sets can be created. In addition, within the e-learning context, in the spirit of the mastery of learning, it is possible to assign online quantitative…
On the generation of log-Levy distributions and extreme randomness
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Eliazar, Iddo; Klafter, Joseph
2011-01-01
The log-normal distribution is prevalent across the sciences, as it emerges from the combination of multiplicative processes and the central limit theorem (CLT). The CLT, beyond yielding the normal distribution, also yields the class of Levy distributions. The log-Levy distributions are the Levy counterparts of the log-normal distribution, they appear in the context of ultraslow diffusion processes, and they are categorized by Mandelbrot as belonging to the class of extreme randomness. In this paper, we present a natural stochastic growth model from which both the log-normal distribution and the log-Levy distributions emerge universally-the former in the case of deterministic underlying setting, and the latter in the case of stochastic underlying setting. In particular, we establish a stochastic growth model which universally generates Mandelbrot's extreme randomness. (paper)
From scenarios to domain models: processes and representations
Haddock, Gail; Harbison, Karan
1994-03-01
The domain specific software architectures (DSSA) community has defined a philosophy for the development of complex systems. This philosophy improves productivity and efficiency by increasing the user's role in the definition of requirements, increasing the systems engineer's role in the reuse of components, and decreasing the software engineer's role to the development of new components and component modifications only. The scenario-based engineering process (SEP), the first instantiation of the DSSA philosophy, has been adopted by the next generation controller project. It is also the chosen methodology of the trauma care information management system project, and the surrogate semi-autonomous vehicle project. SEP uses scenarios from the user to create domain models and define the system's requirements. Domain knowledge is obtained from a variety of sources including experts, documents, and videos. This knowledge is analyzed using three techniques: scenario analysis, task analysis, and object-oriented analysis. Scenario analysis results in formal representations of selected scenarios. Task analysis of the scenario representations results in descriptions of tasks necessary for object-oriented analysis and also subtasks necessary for functional system analysis. Object-oriented analysis of task descriptions produces domain models and system requirements. This paper examines the representations that support the DSSA philosophy, including reference requirements, reference architectures, and domain models. The processes used to create and use the representations are explained through use of the scenario-based engineering process. Selected examples are taken from the next generation controller project.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bilan Stepan
2017-01-01
Full Text Available To date, there are many tasks that are aimed at studying the dynamic changes in physical processes. These tasks do not give advance known result. The solution of such problems is based on the construction of a dynamic model of the object. Successful structural and functional implementation of the object model can give a positive result in time. This approach uses the task of constructing artificial biological objects. To solve such problems, pseudo-random number generators are used, which also find wide application for information protection tasks. Such generators should have good statistical properties and give a long repetition period of the generated pseudo-random bit sequence. This work is aimed at improving these characteristics. The paper considers the method of forming pseudo-random sequences of numbers on the basis of aperiodic cellular automata with two active cells. A pseudo-random number generator is proposed that generates three bit sequences. The first two bit sequences are formed by the corresponding two active cells in the cellular automaton. The third bit sequence is the result of executing the XOR function over the bits of the first two sequences and it has better characteristics compared to them. The use of cellular automata with two active cells allowed to improve the statistical properties of the formed bit sequence, as well as its repetition period. This is proved by using graphical tests for generators built based on cellular automata using the neighborhoods of von Neumann and Moore. The tests showed high efficiency of the generator based on an asynchronous cellular automaton with the neighborhood of Moore. The proposed pseudo-random number generators have good statistical properties, which makes it possible to use them in information security systems, as well as for simulation tasks of various dynamic processes.
Bootstrapping the economy -- a non-parametric method of generating consistent future scenarios
Müller, Ulrich A; Bürgi, Roland; Dacorogna, Michel M
2004-01-01
The fortune and the risk of a business venture depends on the future course of the economy. There is a strong demand for economic forecasts and scenarios that can be applied to planning and modeling. While there is an ongoing debate on modeling economic scenarios, the bootstrapping (or resampling) approach presented here has several advantages. As a non-parametric method, it directly relies on past market behaviors rather than debatable assumptions on models and parameters. Simultaneous dep...
Chaotic oscillation and random-number generation based on nanoscale optical-energy transfer.
Naruse, Makoto; Kim, Song-Ju; Aono, Masashi; Hori, Hirokazu; Ohtsu, Motoichi
2014-08-12
By using nanoscale energy-transfer dynamics and density matrix formalism, we demonstrate theoretically and numerically that chaotic oscillation and random-number generation occur in a nanoscale system. The physical system consists of a pair of quantum dots (QDs), with one QD smaller than the other, between which energy transfers via optical near-field interactions. When the system is pumped by continuous-wave radiation and incorporates a timing delay between two energy transfers within the system, it emits optical pulses. We refer to such QD pairs as nano-optical pulsers (NOPs). Irradiating an NOP with external periodic optical pulses causes the oscillating frequency of the NOP to synchronize with the external stimulus. We find that chaotic oscillation occurs in the NOP population when they are connected by an external time delay. Moreover, by evaluating the time-domain signals by statistical-test suites, we confirm that the signals are sufficiently random to qualify the system as a random-number generator (RNG). This study reveals that even relatively simple nanodevices that interact locally with each other through optical energy transfer at scales far below the wavelength of irradiating light can exhibit complex oscillatory dynamics. These findings are significant for applications such as ultrasmall RNGs.
Quantum Statistical Testing of a Quantum Random Number Generator
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Humble, Travis S [ORNL
2014-01-01
The unobservable elements in a quantum technology, e.g., the quantum state, complicate system verification against promised behavior. Using model-based system engineering, we present methods for verifying the opera- tion of a prototypical quantum random number generator. We begin with the algorithmic design of the QRNG followed by the synthesis of its physical design requirements. We next discuss how quantum statistical testing can be used to verify device behavior as well as detect device bias. We conclude by highlighting how system design and verification methods must influence effort to certify future quantum technologies.
True random bit generators based on current time series of contact glow discharge electrolysis
Rojas, Andrea Espinel; Allagui, Anis; Elwakil, Ahmed S.; Alawadhi, Hussain
2018-05-01
Random bit generators (RBGs) in today's digital information and communication systems employ a high rate physical entropy sources such as electronic, photonic, or thermal time series signals. However, the proper functioning of such physical systems is bound by specific constrains that make them in some cases weak and susceptible to external attacks. In this study, we show that the electrical current time series of contact glow discharge electrolysis, which is a dc voltage-powered micro-plasma in liquids, can be used for generating random bit sequences in a wide range of high dc voltages. The current signal is quantized into a binary stream by first using a simple moving average function which makes the distribution centered around zero, and then applying logical operations which enables the binarized data to pass all tests in industry-standard randomness test suite by the National Institute of Standard Technology. Furthermore, the robustness of this RBG against power supply attacks has been examined and verified.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hall, Jim W.; Lawry, Jonathan
2004-01-01
Random set theory provides a convenient mechanism for representing uncertain knowledge including probabilistic and set-based information, and extending it through a function. This paper focuses upon the situation when the available information is in terms of coherent lower and upper probabilities, which are encountered, for example, when a probability distribution is specified by interval parameters. We propose an Iterative Rescaling Method (IRM) for constructing a random set with corresponding belief and plausibility measures that are a close outer approximation to the lower and upper probabilities. The approach is compared with the discrete approximation method of Williamson and Downs (sometimes referred to as the p-box), which generates a closer approximation to lower and upper cumulative probability distributions but in most cases a less accurate approximation to the lower and upper probabilities on the remainder of the power set. Four combination methods are compared by application to example random sets generated using the IRM
Kanter, Ido; Butkovski, Maria; Peleg, Yitzhak; Zigzag, Meital; Aviad, Yaara; Reidler, Igor; Rosenbluh, Michael; Kinzel, Wolfgang
2010-08-16
Random bit generators (RBGs) constitute an important tool in cryptography, stochastic simulations and secure communications. The later in particular has some difficult requirements: high generation rate of unpredictable bit strings and secure key-exchange protocols over public channels. Deterministic algorithms generate pseudo-random number sequences at high rates, however, their unpredictability is limited by the very nature of their deterministic origin. Recently, physical RBGs based on chaotic semiconductor lasers were shown to exceed Gbit/s rates. Whether secure synchronization of two high rate physical RBGs is possible remains an open question. Here we propose a method, whereby two fast RBGs based on mutually coupled chaotic lasers, are synchronized. Using information theoretic analysis we demonstrate security against a powerful computational eavesdropper, capable of noiseless amplification, where all parameters are publicly known. The method is also extended to secure synchronization of a small network of three RBGs.
Experts dismiss doomsday scenarios for RHIC
Levi, B G
2000-01-01
A panel of particle physicists examining the possibility that operation of RHIC could generate blackholes or 'strangelets' which would consume ordinary matter, have declared that such scenarios are 'firmly excluded' (1 p).
Nassar, Nedal T.; Wilburn, David R.; Goonan, Thomas G.
2016-01-01
The United States has and will likely continue to obtain an increasing share of its electricity from solar photovoltaics (PV) and wind power, especially under the Clean Power Plan (CPP). The need for additional solar PV modules and wind turbines will, among other things, result in greater demand for a number of minor metals that are produced mainly or only as byproducts. In this analysis, the quantities of 11 byproduct metals (Ag, Cd, Te, In, Ga, Se, Ge, Nd, Pr, Dy, and Tb) required for wind turbines with rare-earth permanent magnets and four solar PV technologies are assessed through the year 2040. Three key uncertainties (electricity generation capacities, technology market shares, and material intensities) are varied to develop 42 scenarios for each byproduct metal. The results indicate that byproduct metal requirements vary significantly across technologies, scenarios, and over time. In certain scenarios, the requirements are projected to become a significant portion of current primary production. This is especially the case for Te, Ge, Dy, In, and Tb under the more aggressive scenarios of increasing market share and conservative material intensities. Te and Dy are, perhaps, of most concern given their substitution limitations. In certain years, the differences in byproduct metal requirements between the technology market share and material intensity scenarios are greater than those between the various CPP and No CPP scenarios. Cumulatively across years 2016–2040, the various CPP scenarios are estimated to require 15–43% more byproduct metals than the No CPP scenario depending on the specific byproduct metal and scenario. Increasing primary production via enhanced recovery rates of the byproduct metals during the beneficiation and enrichment operations, improving end-of-life recycling rates, and developing substitutes are important strategies that may help meet the increased demand for these byproduct metals.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jeffrey S. Lee
2017-10-01
Full Text Available In this note, the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB Radiation is shown to be capable of functioning as a Random Bit Generator, and constitutes an effectively infinite supply of truly random one-time pad values of arbitrary length. It is further argued that the CMB power spectrum potentially conforms to the FIPS 140-2 standard. Additionally, its applicability to the generation of a (n × n random key matrix for a Vernam cipher is established. Keywords: Particle physics, Computer science, Mathematics, Astrophysics
Simulating geometrically complex blast scenarios
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ian G. Cullis
2016-04-01
Full Text Available The effects of blast waves generated by energetic and non-energetic sources are of continuing interest to the ballistics research community. Modern conflicts are increasingly characterised by asymmetric urban warfare, with improvised explosive devices (IEDs often playing a dominant role on the one hand and an armed forces requirement for minimal collateral effects from their weapons on the other. These problems are characterised by disparate length- and time-scales and may also be governed by complex physics. There is thus an increasing need to be able to rapidly assess and accurately predict the effects of energetic blast in topologically complex scenarios. To this end, this paper presents a new QinetiQ-developed advanced computational package called EAGLE-Blast, which is capable of accurately resolving the generation, propagation and interaction of blast waves around geometrically complex shapes such as vehicles and buildings. After a brief description of the numerical methodology, various blast scenario simulations are described and the results compared with experimental data to demonstrate the validation of the scheme and its ability to describe these complex scenarios accurately and efficiently. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the use of the code in supporting the development of algorithms for fast running engineering models.
McFall, B. C.; Fritz, H. M.
2013-12-01
Tsunamis generated by landslides and volcano flank collapse can be particularly devastative in the near field region due to locally high wave amplitudes and runup. The events of 1958 Lituya Bay, 1963 Vajont reservoir, 1980 Spirit Lake, 2002 Stromboli and 2010 Haiti demonstrate the danger of tsunamis generated by landslides or volcano flank collapses. Unfortunately critical field data from these events is lacking. Source and runup scenarios based on real world events are physically modeled using generalized Froude similarity in the three dimensional NEES tsunami wave basin at Oregon State University. A novel pneumatic landslide tsunami generator (LTG) was deployed to simulate landslides with varying geometry and kinematics. Two different materials are used to simulate landslides to study the granulometry effects: naturally rounded river gravel and cobble mixtures. The LTG consists of a sliding box filled with 1,350 kg of landslide material which is accelerated by means of four pneumatic pistons down a 2H:1V slope. The landslide is launched from the sliding box and continues to accelerate by gravitational forces up to velocities of 5 m/s. The landslide Froude number at impact with the water is in the range 1
2014-01-01
Background Cluster randomized trials (CRTs) present unique ethical challenges. In the absence of a uniform standard for their ethical design and conduct, problems such as variability in procedures and requirements by different research ethics committees will persist. We aimed to assess the need for ethics guidelines for CRTs among research ethics chairs internationally, investigate variability in procedures for research ethics review of CRTs within and among countries, and elicit research ethics chairs’ perspectives on specific ethical issues in CRTs, including the identification of research subjects. The proper identification of research subjects is a necessary requirement in the research ethics review process, to help ensure, on the one hand, that subjects are protected from harm and exploitation, and on the other, that reviews of CRTs are completed efficiently. Methods A web-based survey with closed- and open-ended questions was administered to research ethics chairs in Canada, the United States, and the United Kingdom. The survey presented three scenarios of CRTs involving cluster-level, professional-level, and individual-level interventions. For each scenario, a series of questions was posed with respect to the type of review required (full, expedited, or no review) and the identification of research subjects at cluster and individual levels. Results A total of 189 (35%) of 542 chairs responded. Overall, 144 (84%, 95% CI 79 to 90%) agreed or strongly agreed that there is a need for ethics guidelines for CRTs and 158 (92%, 95% CI 88 to 96%) agreed or strongly agreed that research ethics committees could be better informed about distinct ethical issues surrounding CRTs. There was considerable variability among research ethics chairs with respect to the type of review required, as well as the identification of research subjects. The cluster-cluster and professional-cluster scenarios produced the most disagreement. Conclusions Research ethics committees
Nagar, Lokesh; Dutta, Pankaj; Jain, Karuna
2014-05-01
In the present day business scenario, instant changes in market demand, different source of materials and manufacturing technologies force many companies to change their supply chain planning in order to tackle the real-world uncertainty. The purpose of this paper is to develop a multi-objective two-stage stochastic programming supply chain model that incorporates imprecise production rate and supplier capacity under scenario dependent fuzzy random demand associated with new product supply chains. The objectives are to maximise the supply chain profit, achieve desired service level and minimise financial risk. The proposed model allows simultaneous determination of optimum supply chain design, procurement and production quantities across the different plants, and trade-offs between inventory and transportation modes for both inbound and outbound logistics. Analogous to chance constraints, we have used the possibility measure to quantify the demand uncertainties and the model is solved using fuzzy linear programming approach. An illustration is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. Sensitivity analysis is performed for maximisation of the supply chain profit with respect to different confidence level of service, risk and possibility measure. It is found that when one considers the service level and risk as robustness measure the variability in profit reduces.
Pseudo-Random Sequences Generated by a Class of One-Dimensional Smooth Map
Wang, Xing-Yuan; Qin, Xue; Xie, Yi-Xin
2011-08-01
We extend a class of a one-dimensional smooth map. We make sure that for each desired interval of the parameter the map's Lyapunov exponent is positive. Then we propose a novel parameter perturbation method based on the good property of the extended one-dimensional smooth map. We perturb the parameter r in each iteration by the real number xi generated by the iteration. The auto-correlation function and NIST statistical test suite are taken to illustrate the method's randomness finally. We provide an application of this method in image encryption. Experiments show that the pseudo-random sequences are suitable for this application.
User's guide for MAGIC-Meteorologic and hydrologic genscn (generate scenarios) input converter
Ortel, Terry W.; Martin, Angel
2010-01-01
Meteorologic and hydrologic data used in watershed modeling studies are collected by various agencies and organizations, and stored in various formats. Data may be in a raw, un-processed format with little or no quality control, or may be checked for validity before being made available. Flood-simulation systems require data in near real-time so that adequate flood warnings can be made. Additionally, forecasted data are needed to operate flood-control structures to potentially mitigate flood damages. Because real-time data are of a provisional nature, missing data may need to be estimated for use in floodsimulation systems. The Meteorologic and Hydrologic GenScn (Generate Scenarios) Input Converter (MAGIC) can be used to convert data from selected formats into the Hydrologic Simulation System-Fortran hourly-observations format for input to a Watershed Data Management database, for use in hydrologic modeling studies. MAGIC also can reformat the data to the Full Equations model time-series format, for use in hydraulic modeling studies. Examples of the application of MAGIC for use in the flood-simulation system for Salt Creek in northeastern Illinois are presented in this report.
Useful global-change scenarios: current issues and challenges
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Parson, E A
2008-01-01
Scenarios are increasingly used to inform global-change debates, but their connection to decisions has been weak and indirect. This reflects the greater number and variety of potential users and scenario needs, relative to other decision domains where scenario use is more established. Global-change scenario needs include common elements, e.g., model-generated projections of emissions and climate change, needed by many users but in different ways and with different assumptions. For these common elements, the limited ability to engage diverse global-change users in scenario development requires extreme transparency in communicating underlying reasoning and assumptions, including probability judgments. Other scenario needs are specific to users, requiring a decentralized network of scenario and assessment organizations to disseminate and interpret common elements and add elements requiring local context or expertise. Such an approach will make global-change scenarios more useful for decisions, but not less controversial. Despite predictable attacks, scenario-based reasoning is necessary for responsible global-change decisions because decision-relevant uncertainties cannot be specified scientifically. The purpose of scenarios is not to avoid speculation, but to make the required speculation more disciplined, more anchored in relevant scientific knowledge when available, and more transparent.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Procassini, R J; Beck, B R
2004-01-01
It might be assumed that use of a ''high-quality'' random number generator (RNG), producing a sequence of ''pseudo random'' numbers with a ''long'' repetition period, is crucial for producing unbiased results in Monte Carlo particle transport simulations. While several theoretical and empirical tests have been devised to check the quality (randomness and period) of an RNG, for many applications it is not clear what level of RNG quality is required to produce unbiased results. This paper explores the issue of RNG quality in the context of parallel, Monte Carlo transport simulations in order to determine how ''good'' is ''good enough''. This study employs the MERCURY Monte Carlo code, which incorporates the CNPRNG library for the generation of pseudo-random numbers via linear congruential generator (LCG) algorithms. The paper outlines the usage of random numbers during parallel MERCURY simulations, and then describes the source and criticality transport simulations which comprise the empirical basis of this study. A series of calculations for each test problem in which the quality of the RNG (period of the LCG) is varied provides the empirical basis for determining the minimum repetition period which may be employed without producing a bias in the mean integrated results
Evaluation of mitigation scenarios of climate change in the electric sector
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Perez Martin, David; Lopez Lopez, I.
1999-01-01
The electricity generation contributes to development and to improve the quality of life, But it is ones of the most important contributors to the Greenhouse Gas and particle emissions particularly in Cuba where 99.4% of electricity in the National Electric System is generated from fossil fuels. In the paper from mitigation measures three mitigation scenarios are evaluated for the Expansion of the Cuban electric system using DECADES Tools. Evaluated scenarios include the Use of 60% of the biomass potential, the combinations of this with nuclear power reactors, Hydraulic energy and combined cycle power plants. Finally in the paper the Greenhouse Gas level reduction, investment, fuel, operation and Maintenance costs and Carbon Intensity in generation are analyzed for evaluated mitigation Scenarios and conclusions are offered
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cornejo Diaz, N.; Vergara Gil, A.; Jurado Vargas, M.
2010-01-01
The Monte Carlo method has become a valuable numerical laboratory framework in which to simulate complex physical systems. It is based on the generation of pseudo-random number sequences by numerical algorithms called random generators. In this work we assessed the suitability of different well-known random number generators for the simulation of gamma-ray spectrometry systems during efficiency calibrations. The assessment was carried out in two stages. The generators considered (Delphi's linear congruential, mersenne twister, XorShift, multiplier with carry, universal virtual array, and non-periodic logistic map based generator) were first evaluated with different statistical empirical tests, including moments, correlations, uniformity, independence of terms and the DIEHARD battery of tests. In a second step, an application-specific test was conducted by implementing the generators in our Monte Carlo program DETEFF and comparing the results obtained with them. The calculations were performed with two different CPUs, for a typical HpGe detector and a water sample in Marinelli geometry, with gamma-rays between 59 and 1800 keV. For the Non-periodic Logistic Map based generator, dependence of the most significant bits was evident. This explains the bias, in excess of 5%, of the efficiency values obtained with this generator. The results of the application-specific assessment and the statistical performance of the other algorithms studied indicate their suitability for the Monte Carlo simulation of gamma-ray spectrometry systems for efficiency calculations.
Díaz, N Cornejo; Gil, A Vergara; Vargas, M Jurado
2010-03-01
The Monte Carlo method has become a valuable numerical laboratory framework in which to simulate complex physical systems. It is based on the generation of pseudo-random number sequences by numerical algorithms called random generators. In this work we assessed the suitability of different well-known random number generators for the simulation of gamma-ray spectrometry systems during efficiency calibrations. The assessment was carried out in two stages. The generators considered (Delphi's linear congruential, mersenne twister, XorShift, multiplier with carry, universal virtual array, and non-periodic logistic map based generator) were first evaluated with different statistical empirical tests, including moments, correlations, uniformity, independence of terms and the DIEHARD battery of tests. In a second step, an application-specific test was conducted by implementing the generators in our Monte Carlo program DETEFF and comparing the results obtained with them. The calculations were performed with two different CPUs, for a typical HpGe detector and a water sample in Marinelli geometry, with gamma-rays between 59 and 1800 keV. For the Non-periodic Logistic Map based generator, dependence of the most significant bits was evident. This explains the bias, in excess of 5%, of the efficiency values obtained with this generator. The results of the application-specific assessment and the statistical performance of the other algorithms studied indicate their suitability for the Monte Carlo simulation of gamma-ray spectrometry systems for efficiency calculations. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Thermodynamic method for generating random stress distributions on an earthquake fault
Barall, Michael; Harris, Ruth A.
2012-01-01
This report presents a new method for generating random stress distributions on an earthquake fault, suitable for use as initial conditions in a dynamic rupture simulation. The method employs concepts from thermodynamics and statistical mechanics. A pattern of fault slip is considered to be analogous to a micro-state of a thermodynamic system. The energy of the micro-state is taken to be the elastic energy stored in the surrounding medium. Then, the Boltzmann distribution gives the probability of a given pattern of fault slip and stress. We show how to decompose the system into independent degrees of freedom, which makes it computationally feasible to select a random state. However, due to the equipartition theorem, straightforward application of the Boltzmann distribution leads to a divergence which predicts infinite stress. To avoid equipartition, we show that the finite strength of the fault acts to restrict the possible states of the system. By analyzing a set of earthquake scaling relations, we derive a new formula for the expected power spectral density of the stress distribution, which allows us to construct a computer algorithm free of infinities. We then present a new technique for controlling the extent of the rupture by generating a random stress distribution thousands of times larger than the fault surface, and selecting a portion which, by chance, has a positive stress perturbation of the desired size. Finally, we present a new two-stage nucleation method that combines a small zone of forced rupture with a larger zone of reduced fracture energy.
A Model for Generating Multi-hazard Scenarios
Lo Jacomo, A.; Han, D.; Champneys, A.
2017-12-01
Communities in mountain areas are often subject to risk from multiple hazards, such as earthquakes, landslides, and floods. Each hazard has its own different rate of onset, duration, and return period. Multiple hazards tend to complicate the combined risk due to their interactions. Prioritising interventions for minimising risk in this context is challenging. We developed a probabilistic multi-hazard model to help inform decision making in multi-hazard areas. The model is applied to a case study region in the Sichuan province in China, using information from satellite imagery and in-situ data. The model is not intended as a predictive model, but rather as a tool which takes stakeholder input and can be used to explore plausible hazard scenarios over time. By using a Monte Carlo framework and varrying uncertain parameters for each of the hazards, the model can be used to explore the effect of different mitigation interventions aimed at reducing the disaster risk within an uncertain hazard context.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Phillips, Carolyn L.; Anderson, Joshua A.; Glotzer, Sharon C.
2011-01-01
Highlights: → Molecular Dynamics codes implemented on GPUs have achieved two-order of magnitude computational accelerations. → Brownian Dynamics and Dissipative Particle Dynamics simulations require a large number of random numbers per time step. → We introduce a method for generating small batches of pseudorandom numbers distributed over many threads of calculations. → With this method, Dissipative Particle Dynamics is implemented on a GPU device without requiring thread-to-thread communication. - Abstract: Brownian Dynamics (BD), also known as Langevin Dynamics, and Dissipative Particle Dynamics (DPD) are implicit solvent methods commonly used in models of soft matter and biomolecular systems. The interaction of the numerous solvent particles with larger particles is coarse-grained as a Langevin thermostat is applied to individual particles or to particle pairs. The Langevin thermostat requires a pseudo-random number generator (PRNG) to generate the stochastic force applied to each particle or pair of neighboring particles during each time step in the integration of Newton's equations of motion. In a Single-Instruction-Multiple-Thread (SIMT) GPU parallel computing environment, small batches of random numbers must be generated over thousands of threads and millions of kernel calls. In this communication we introduce a one-PRNG-per-kernel-call-per-thread scheme, in which a micro-stream of pseudorandom numbers is generated in each thread and kernel call. These high quality, statistically robust micro-streams require no global memory for state storage, are more computationally efficient than other PRNG schemes in memory-bound kernels, and uniquely enable the DPD simulation method without requiring communication between threads.
A versatile programmable CAMAC random pulse generator
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Abdel-Aal, R.E.
1991-01-01
A new technique for generating linear pulses which can be random in both amplitude and time is described. With this technique, desired values for both pulse amplitude and spacing are set for the individual pulses by the software on a pulse-by-pulse basis. The versatility offered by this software programming allows a wide range of distributions to be obtained; with the user having close control on the distribution parameters. A number of such distributions may also be combined into a single output pulse stream. An implementation in a CAMAC module is presented. Both hardware and software aspects are described and typical performance results for amplitude and time distributions of the uniform and Gaussian type are given. Implications of using the pulser in a typical data acquisition environment on both the data acquisition and the pulser performance are considered. Typical applications are discussed together with some of the limitations. (orig.)
Pseudo-Random Sequences Generated by a Class of One-Dimensional Smooth Map
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wang Xing-Yuan; Qin Xue; Xie Yi-Xin
2011-01-01
We extend a class of a one-dimensional smooth map. We make sure that for each desired interval of the parameter the map's Lyapunov exponent is positive. Then we propose a novel parameter perturbation method based on the good property of the extended one-dimensional smooth map. We perturb the parameter r in each iteration by the real number x i generated by the iteration. The auto-correlation function and NIST statistical test suite are taken to illustrate the method's randomness finally. We provide an application of this method in image encryption. Experiments show that the pseudo-random sequences are suitable for this application. (general)
Energy assessment of second generation (2G) ethanol production from wheat straw in Indian scenario.
Mishra, Archana; Kumar, Akash; Ghosh, Sanjoy
2018-03-01
Impact of second-generation ethanol (2G) use in transportation sector mainly depends upon energy efficiency of entire production process. The objective of present study was to determine energy efficiency of a potential lignocellulosic feedstock; wheat straw and its conversion into cellulosic ethanol in Indian scenario. Energy efficiency was determined by calculating Net energy ratio (NER), i.e. ratio of output energy obtained by ethanol and input energy used in ethanol production. Energy consumption and generation at each step is calculated briefly (11,837.35 MJ/ha during Indian dwarf irrigated variety of wheat crop production and 7.1148 MJ/kg straw during ethanol production stage). Total energy consumption is calculated as 8.2988 MJ/kg straw whereas energy generation from ethanol is 15.082 MJ/kg straw; resulting into NER > 1. Major portion of agricultural energy input is contributed by diesel and fertilisers whereas refining process of wheat straw feedstock to ethanol and by-products require mainly in the form of steam and electricity. On an average, 1671.8 kg water free ethanol, 930 kg lignin rich biomass (for combustion), and 561 kg C5-molasses (for fodder) per hectare are produced. Findings of this study, net energy ratio (1.81) and figure of merit (14.8028 MJ/nil kg carbon) proves wheat straw as highest energy efficient lignocellulosic feedstock for the country.
Generated effect modifiers (GEM's) in randomized clinical trials.
Petkova, Eva; Tarpey, Thaddeus; Su, Zhe; Ogden, R Todd
2017-01-01
In a randomized clinical trial (RCT), it is often of interest not only to estimate the effect of various treatments on the outcome, but also to determine whether any patient characteristic has a different relationship with the outcome, depending on treatment. In regression models for the outcome, if there is a non-zero interaction between treatment and a predictor, that predictor is called an "effect modifier". Identification of such effect modifiers is crucial as we move towards precision medicine, that is, optimizing individual treatment assignment based on patient measurements assessed when presenting for treatment. In most settings, there will be several baseline predictor variables that could potentially modify the treatment effects. This article proposes optimal methods of constructing a composite variable (defined as a linear combination of pre-treatment patient characteristics) in order to generate an effect modifier in an RCT setting. Several criteria are considered for generating effect modifiers and their performance is studied via simulations. An example from a RCT is provided for illustration. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.
Hsu, Li-Ling; Chang, Wen-Hui; Hsieh, Suh-Ing
2015-01-01
Studies have shown that an underappreciation of the importance of person-centered communication and inappropriate communication training could result in unsatisfactory communication performance from nurses. There are a large number of studies about communication training for nurses, but not so many about communication training in early stages of nursing career. The purpose of this study is to compare the effect of a traditional course versus scenario-based simulation training on nurses' communication competency, communication self-efficacy, and communication performance in discharge planning Objective Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE). A randomized controlled trial was used with a pretest and two posttests. The experimental group underwent the scenario-based simulation course, whereas the control group received the traditional course. A convenience sample of 116 nurses with qualifications ranging from N0 level (novice nurses) to N2 level (competent nurses) in Taiwan's clinical nursing ladder system was recruited from a medical center in northern Taiwan. Analysis of covariance was used to determine between-subjects effects on communication competency and self-efficacy, whereas independent t test and Mann-Whitney U test were used to examine between-subjects effects on learner satisfaction and discharge planning communication performance. Paired t test was used to determine communication self-efficacy. In this study, the nurses and independent raters found scenario-based simulation training more effective than traditional communication course. However, standardized patients reported no significant difference in communication performance between the two groups of nurses. Despite that traditional classroom lectures and simulation-based communication training could both produce enhanced communication competency and self-efficacy among nurses, this study has established that the latter may be better than the former in terms of learner satisfaction and communication
Strenge, Hans; Lesmana, Cokorda Bagus Jaya; Suryani, Luh Ketut
2009-08-01
Verbal random number generation is a procedurally simple task to assess executive function and appears ideally suited for the use under diverse settings in cross-cultural research. The objective of this study was to examine ethnic group differences between young adults in Bali (Indonesia) and Kiel (Germany): 50 bilingual healthy students, 30 Balinese and 20 Germans, attempted to generate a random sequence of the digits 1 to 9. In Balinese participants, randomization was done in Balinese (native language L1) and Indonesian (first foreign language L2), in German subjects in the German (L1) and English (L2) languages. 10 of 30 Balinese (33%), but no Germans, were unable to inhibit habitual counting in more than half of the responses. The Balinese produced significantly more nonrandom responses than the Germans with higher rates of counting and significantly less occurrence of the digits 2 and 3 in L1 compared with L2. Repetition and cycling behavior did not differ between the four languages. The findings highlight the importance of taking into account culture-bound psychosocial factors for Balinese individuals when administering and interpreting a random number generation test.
Stochastic congestion management in power markets using efficient scenario approaches
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Esmaili, Masoud; Amjady, Nima; Shayanfar, Heidar Ali
2010-01-01
Congestion management in electricity markets is traditionally performed using deterministic values of system parameters assuming a fixed network configuration. In this paper, a stochastic programming framework is proposed for congestion management considering the power system uncertainties comprising outage of generating units and transmission branches. The Forced Outage Rate of equipment is employed in the stochastic programming. Using the Monte Carlo simulation, possible scenarios of power system operating states are generated and a probability is assigned to each scenario. The performance of the ordinary as well as Lattice rank-1 and rank-2 Monte Carlo simulations is evaluated in the proposed congestion management framework. As a tradeoff between computation time and accuracy, scenario reduction based on the standard deviation of accepted scenarios is adopted. The stochastic congestion management solution is obtained by aggregating individual solutions of accepted scenarios. Congestion management using the proposed stochastic framework provides a more realistic solution compared with traditional deterministic solutions. Results of testing the proposed stochastic congestion management on the 24-bus reliability test system indicate the efficiency of the proposed framework.
Pseudo-random number generator based on mixing of three chaotic maps
François, M.; Grosges, T.; Barchiesi, D.; Erra, R.
2014-04-01
A secure pseudo-random number generator three-mixer is proposed. The principle of the method consists in mixing three chaotic maps produced from an input initial vector. The algorithm uses permutations whose positions are computed and indexed by a standard chaotic function and a linear congruence. The performance of that scheme is evaluated through statistical analysis. Such a cryptosystem lets appear significant cryptographic qualities for a high security level.
Non-random mating for selection with restricted rates of inbreeding and overlapping generations
Sonesson, A.K.; Meuwissen, T.H.E.
2002-01-01
Minimum coancestry mating with a maximum of one offspring per mating pair (MC1) is compared with random mating schemes for populations with overlapping generations. Optimum contribution selection is used, whereby $\\\\\\\\Delta F$ is restricted. For schemes with $\\\\\\\\Delta F$ restricted to 0.25% per
On Generating Optimal Signal Probabilities for Random Tests: A Genetic Approach
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Srinivas
1996-01-01
Full Text Available Genetic Algorithms are robust search and optimization techniques. A Genetic Algorithm based approach for determining the optimal input distributions for generating random test vectors is proposed in the paper. A cost function based on the COP testability measure for determining the efficacy of the input distributions is discussed. A brief overview of Genetic Algorithms (GAs and the specific details of our implementation are described. Experimental results based on ISCAS-85 benchmark circuits are presented. The performance of our GAbased approach is compared with previous results. While the GA generates more efficient input distributions than the previous methods which are based on gradient descent search, the overheads of the GA in computing the input distributions are larger.
Stochastic Channel Modeling for Railway Tunnel Scenarios at 25 GHz
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Danping He
2018-02-01
Full Text Available More people prefer using rail traffic for travel or for commuting owing to its convenience and flexibility. The railway scenario has become an important communication scenario in the fifth generation era. The communication system should be designed to support high‐data‐rate demands with seamless connectivity at a high mobility. In this paper, the channel characteristics are studied and modeled for the railway tunnel scenario with straight and curved route shapes. On the basis of measurements using the “Mobile Hotspot Network” system, a three‐dimensional ray tracer (RT is calibrated and validated for the target scenarios. More channel characteristics are explored via RT simulations at 25.25 GHz with a 500‐MHz bandwidth. The key channel parameters are extracted, provided, and incorporated into a 3rd‐Generation‐Partnership‐Project‐like stochastic channel generator. The necessary channel information can be practically realized, which can support the link‐level and system‐level design of the communication system in similar scenarios.
On a direct algorithm for the generation of log-normal pseudo-random numbers
Chamayou, J M F
1976-01-01
The random variable ( Pi /sub i=1//sup n/X/sub i//X/sub i+n/)/sup 1/ square root 2n/ is used to generate standard log normal variables Lambda (0, 1), where the X/sub i/ are independent uniform variables on (0, 1). (8 refs).
Generation of correlated finite alphabet waveforms using gaussian random variables
Ahmed, Sajid
2016-01-13
Various examples of methods and systems are provided for generation of correlated finite alphabet waveforms using Gaussian random variables in, e.g., radar and communication applications. In one example, a method includes mapping an input signal comprising Gaussian random variables (RVs) onto finite-alphabet non-constant-envelope (FANCE) symbols using a predetermined mapping function, and transmitting FANCE waveforms through a uniform linear array of antenna elements to obtain a corresponding beampattern. The FANCE waveforms can be based upon the mapping of the Gaussian RVs onto the FANCE symbols. In another example, a system includes a memory unit that can store a plurality of digital bit streams corresponding to FANCE symbols and a front end unit that can transmit FANCE waveforms through a uniform linear array of antenna elements to obtain a corresponding beampattern. The system can include a processing unit that can encode the input signal and/or determine the mapping function.
Generation of correlated finite alphabet waveforms using gaussian random variables
Ahmed, Sajid; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim; Jardak, Seifallah
2016-01-01
Various examples of methods and systems are provided for generation of correlated finite alphabet waveforms using Gaussian random variables in, e.g., radar and communication applications. In one example, a method includes mapping an input signal comprising Gaussian random variables (RVs) onto finite-alphabet non-constant-envelope (FANCE) symbols using a predetermined mapping function, and transmitting FANCE waveforms through a uniform linear array of antenna elements to obtain a corresponding beampattern. The FANCE waveforms can be based upon the mapping of the Gaussian RVs onto the FANCE symbols. In another example, a system includes a memory unit that can store a plurality of digital bit streams corresponding to FANCE symbols and a front end unit that can transmit FANCE waveforms through a uniform linear array of antenna elements to obtain a corresponding beampattern. The system can include a processing unit that can encode the input signal and/or determine the mapping function.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
De Menezes, Marcio Argollo; Brigatti, Edgardo; Schwämmle, Veit
2013-01-01
Microbiological systems evolve to fulfil their tasks with maximal efficiency. The immune system is a remarkable example, where the distinction between self and non-self is made by means of molecular interaction between self-proteins and antigens, triggering affinity-dependent systemic actions. Specificity of this binding and the infinitude of potential antigenic patterns call for novel mechanisms to generate antibody diversity. Inspired by this problem, we develop a genetic algorithm where agents evolve their strings in the presence of random antigenic strings and reproduce with affinity-dependent rates. We ask what is the best strategy to generate diversity if agents can rearrange their strings a finite number of times. We find that endowing each agent with an inheritable cellular automaton rule for performing rearrangements makes the system more efficient in pattern-matching than if transformations are totally random. In the former implementation, the population evolves to a stationary state where agents with different automata rules coexist. (paper)
Cooling methods of station blackout scenario for LWR plants
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
NONE
2013-08-15
The objective of this study is to analyze the cooling method of station blackout scenario for both the BWR and PWR plants by RELAP5 code and to check the validity of the cooling method proposed by the utilities. In the BWR plant cooling scenario, the Reactor Core Isolation Cooling System (RCIC), which is operated with high pressure steam from the reactor, injects cooling water into the reactor to keep the core water level. The steam generated in the core is released into the suppression pool at containment vessel to condense. To restrict the containment vessel pressure rising, the ventilation from the wet-well is operated. The scenario is analyzed by RELAP5 code. In the PWR plant scenario, the primary pressure is decreased by the turbine-driven auxiliary feed water system operated with secondary side steam of the steam generators (SGs). And the core cooling is kept by the natural circulation flow at the primary loop. From the RELAP5 code analysis, it was shown that the primary system cooling was practicable by using the turbine-driven auxiliary feed water system. (author)
Cooling methods of station blackout scenario for LWR plants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
2012-01-01
The objective of this study is to analyze the cooling method of station blackout scenario for both the BWR and PWR plants by RELAP5 code and to check the validity of the cooling method proposed by the utilities. In the BWR plant cooling scenario, the Reactor Core Isolation Cooling System (RCIC), which is operated with high pressure steam from the reactor, injects cooling water into the reactor to keep the core water level. The steam generated in the core is released into the suppression pool at containment vessel to condense. To restrict the containment vessel pressure rising, the ventilation from the wet-well is operated. The scenario is analyzed by RELAP5 and CONTEMPT-LT code. In the PWR plant scenario, the primary pressure is decreased by the turbine-driven auxiliary feed water system operated with secondary side steam of the steam generators (SGs). And the core cooling is kept by the natural circulation flow at the primary loop. The analytical method of un-uniform flow behavior among the SG U-tubes, which affects the natural circulation flow rate, is developed. (author)
A high-speed on-chip pseudo-random binary sequence generator for multi-tone phase calibration
Gommé, Liesbeth; Vandersteen, Gerd; Rolain, Yves
2011-07-01
An on-chip reference generator is conceived by adopting the technique of decimating a pseudo-random binary sequence (PRBS) signal in parallel sequences. This is of great benefit when high-speed generation of PRBS and PRBS-derived signals is the objective. The design implemented standard CMOS logic is available in commercial libraries to provide the logic functions for the generator. The design allows the user to select the periodicity of the PRBS and the PRBS-derived signals. The characterization of the on-chip generator marks its performance and reveals promising specifications.
A high-speed on-chip pseudo-random binary sequence generator for multi-tone phase calibration
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gommé, Liesbeth; Vandersteen, Gerd; Rolain, Yves
2011-01-01
An on-chip reference generator is conceived by adopting the technique of decimating a pseudo-random binary sequence (PRBS) signal in parallel sequences. This is of great benefit when high-speed generation of PRBS and PRBS-derived signals is the objective. The design implemented standard CMOS logic is available in commercial libraries to provide the logic functions for the generator. The design allows the user to select the periodicity of the PRBS and the PRBS-derived signals. The characterization of the on-chip generator marks its performance and reveals promising specifications
No-arbitrage bounds for financial scenarios
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Geyer, Alois; Hanke, Michael; Weissensteiner, Alex
2014-01-01
We derive no-arbitrage bounds for expected excess returns to generate scenarios used in financial applications. The bounds allow to distinguish three regions: one where arbitrage opportunities will never exist, a second where arbitrage may be present, and a third, where arbitrage opportunities...
Horizon scanning for emergence of new viruses: from constructing complex scenarios to online games.
Gale, P; Breed, A C
2013-10-01
Horizon scanning techniques can be developed to identify novel routes and sources for the emergence of viruses in the medium to long term. Central to horizon scanning is prediction of the complex scenarios through which viruses could emerge before they occur. One approach involves 'spidergrams' in which complex scenarios are generated by combining factors randomly selected from different categories of events. Spidergrams provide a framework for how different factors could interact, irrespective of the virus, and also enable testing of combinations not previously considered but which would be 'tested' in nature by a virus. The emergence of viruses through new routes is often related to changes, for example, in environmental and social factors, and the Internet will undoubtedly be used to identify long-term trends for consideration. In addition, online games may provide horizon scanners with suggestions for new routes and strategies that could be used by emerging viruses. © 2012 Crown copyright Reproduced with the permission of the Controller of Her Majesty's Stationery Office and Animal Health and Veterinary Laboratories Agency.
Least cost 100% renewable electricity scenarios in the Australian National Electricity Market
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Elliston, Ben; MacGill, Iain; Diesendorf, Mark
2013-01-01
Least cost options are presented for supplying the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) with 100% renewable electricity using wind, photovoltaics, concentrating solar thermal (CST) with storage, hydroelectricity and biofuelled gas turbines. We use a genetic algorithm and an existing simulation tool to identify the lowest cost (investment and operating) scenarios of renewable technologies and locations for NEM regional hourly demand and observed weather in 2010 using projected technology costs for 2030. These scenarios maintain the NEM reliability standard, limit hydroelectricity generation to available rainfall, and limit bioenergy consumption. The lowest cost scenarios are dominated by wind power, with smaller contributions from photovoltaics and dispatchable generation: CST, hydro and gas turbines. The annual cost of a simplified transmission network to balance supply and demand across NEM regions is a small proportion of the annual cost of the generating system. Annual costs are compared with a scenario where fossil fuelled power stations in the NEM today are replaced with modern fossil substitutes at projected 2030 costs, and a carbon price is paid on all emissions. At moderate carbon prices, which appear required to address climate change, 100% renewable electricity would be cheaper on an annual basis than the replacement scenario
Random generation of bubble sizes on the heated wall during subcooled boiling
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Koncar, B.; Mavko, B.
2003-01-01
In subcooled flow boiling, a locally averaged bubble diameter significantly varies in the transverse direction to the flow. From the experimental data of Bartel, a bent crosssectional profile of local bubble diameter with the maximum value shifted away from the heated wall may be observed. In the present paper, the increasing part of the profile (near the heated wall) is explained by a random generation of bubble sizes on the heated wall. The hypothesis was supported by a statistical analysis of different CFD simulations, varying by the size of the generated bubble (normal distribution) and the number of generated bubbles per unit surface. Local averaging of calculated void fraction distributions over different bubble classes was performed. The increasing curve of the locally averaged bubble diameter in the near-wall region was successfully predicted. (author)
Czernik, Pawel
2013-10-01
The hardware random number generator based on the 74121 monostable multivibrators for applications in cryptographically secure distributed measurement and control systems with asymmetric resources was presented. This device was implemented on the basis of the physical electronic vibration generator in which the circuit is composed of two "loop" 74121 monostable multivibrators, D flip-flop and external clock signal source. The clock signal, witch control D flip-flop was generated by a computer on one of the parallel port pins. There was presented programmed the author's acquisition process of random data from the measuring system to a computer. The presented system was designed, builded and thoroughly tested in the term of cryptographic security in our laboratory, what there is the most important part of this publication. Real cryptographic security was tested based on the author's software and the software environment called RDieHarder. The obtained results was here presented and analyzed in detail with particular reference to the specificity of distributed measurement and control systems with asymmetric resources.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
McPherson, Madeleine; Karney, Bryan
2014-01-01
Panama recently enacted a new law, which aims to promote wind energy by mandating long term power purchase tenders. The implications of this new law lend some uncertainty to Panama's electricity development pathway. This paper quantitatively analyzes the current status of power generation in Panama, and explores various potential future scenarios and the associated impacts on the system marginal cost, global warming potential, and resource diversity index. To this end, this study applies the scenario development methodology developed by Schwartz in the context of the energy-economic modeling platform ‘Long-range Energy Alternative Planning’ (LEAP). Four scenarios are developed and analyzed. The Business as Usual scenario extrapolates the electricity generation trend that has been observed over the last decade; it is compared to three alternative scenarios which have more specific objectives. Scenario 1 encourages climate mitigation without incorporating new technologies in the generation mix, Scenario 2 maximizes resource diversity, and Scenario 3 minimizes global warming potential. For each scenario, the composition of the electricity generation profile, system marginal cost, global warming potential, and resource diversity is predicted quantitatively. These scenarios to not attempt to forecast likely developments, but rather illuminate the tradeoffs that different development pathways entail. - Highlights: • This paper models Panama's electricity sector using the LEAP model platform. • Four scenarios are developed and analyzed. • Impact analysis includes: system cost, global warming potential, resource diversity index. • Panama can achieve a sustainable grid with existing technologies and costs. • There is an tradeoff between the resource diversity and global warming potential
Generated effect modifiers (GEM’s) in randomized clinical trials
Petkova, Eva; Tarpey, Thaddeus; Su, Zhe; Ogden, R. Todd
2017-01-01
In a randomized clinical trial (RCT), it is often of interest not only to estimate the effect of various treatments on the outcome, but also to determine whether any patient characteristic has a different relationship with the outcome, depending on treatment. In regression models for the outcome, if there is a non-zero interaction between treatment and a predictor, that predictor is called an “effect modifier”. Identification of such effect modifiers is crucial as we move towards precision medicine, that is, optimizing individual treatment assignment based on patient measurements assessed when presenting for treatment. In most settings, there will be several baseline predictor variables that could potentially modify the treatment effects. This article proposes optimal methods of constructing a composite variable (defined as a linear combination of pre-treatment patient characteristics) in order to generate an effect modifier in an RCT setting. Several criteria are considered for generating effect modifiers and their performance is studied via simulations. An example from a RCT is provided for illustration. PMID:27465235
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bernard, M. J.; LaBelle, S. J.; Millar, M.; Walbridge, E. W.
1978-03-01
This project aims to provide the DOE Division of Transportation Energy Conservation (TEC) with a long-range forecasting framework in which to evaluate potential changes to the U.S. Transportation system. This initial report examines four existing, but diverse, 50-year scenarios of the future. It describes the scenarios and summarizes the changes in the major transportation system variables that would occur through the year 2025 in each scenario. Projections of variables of interest to TEC are explored, including passenger or ton miles and energy consumption. Each is reported for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025 under four scenarios: success, moderate economic growth, energy crisis, and transformation. The philosophy of this project is that the transportation system must support future lifestyles; by examining potential future lifestyles the required transportation system changes can be deduced. The project: (a) develops a set of scenarios that span likely futures; (b) describes the lifestyles in each scenario in order; (c) determines the characteristics of the transportation system supporting those lifestyles; (d) indicates transportation technologies and policies necessary in that system; and (e) derives the energy characteristics of that system. The implications of the four existing scenarios are examined with emphasis on current TEC electric-vehicle development. This preliminary investigation will be followed by detailed-scenario building (modifying existing scenarios or developing new ones) and generation of lifestyles and transportation system demands under each of the scenarios. This work will be reported in October 1978.
Socio-economic Scenarios in Climate Assessments (IC11). Synthesis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Van Drunen, M.; Berkhout, F.
2011-09-01
It is widely recognised that projections of social and economic futures are circumscribed by irreducible uncertainties and ignorance. A common analytical response is to develop scenarios that map a range of alternative possible outcomes. The application of scenarios in climate assessments in the Netherlands was investigated in this report, focusing on the use of the socio-economic scenarios 'Welvaart en Leefomgeving' (WLO - The Future of the Dutch Built Environment). This research was carried out within the Climate Changes Spatial Planning (CcSP) programme. WLO scenarios have been applied in climate assessment studies. WLO generates figures and data that are useful. Nevertheless we encountered several CcSP projects that did not apply any socio-economic scenarios, whilst this seemed necessary based on their objectives. In general, climate assessments make little sense if socio-economic developments are not taken into account. Interestingly, some of the studies that did apply socio-economic scenarios, picked only one or two of the scenarios generated by WLO. From a theoretical point of view this selective 'shopping' may lead to a tunnel vision, because it is impossible to estimate which scenario is more probable than the others. At the other hand it is often impractical to explore all four scenarios. The time horizon of WLO was in several cases too short for climate assessments. As it is probable that the structure of society has changed significantly by 2040, it is difficult to quantitatively support the storylines as was done in WLO, because many model assumptions are not correct anymore. Possibly it is better to take a backcasting approach for the second half of the century for the purpose of the CcSP programme. The two case studies described in this report provide examples of good practice that are likely to be useful in future projects that deal with scenarios. In addition, this study produced an interactive website (www.climatescenarios.nl) that provides key
A fast method for the unit scheduling problem with significant renewable power generation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Osório, G.J.; Lujano-Rojas, J.M.; Matias, J.C.O.; Catalão, J.P.S.
2015-01-01
Highlights: • A model to the scheduling of power systems with significant renewable power generation is provided. • A new methodology that takes information from the analysis of each scenario separately is proposed. • Based on a probabilistic analysis, unit scheduling and corresponding economic dispatch are estimated. • A comparison with others methodologies is in favour of the proposed approach. - Abstract: Optimal operation of power systems with high integration of renewable power sources has become difficult as a consequence of the random nature of some sources like wind energy and photovoltaic energy. Nowadays, this problem is solved using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) approach, which allows considering important statistical characteristics of wind and solar power production such as the correlation between consecutive observations, the diurnal profile of the forecasted power production, and the forecasting error. However, MCS method requires the analysis of a representative amount of trials, which is an intensive calculation task that increases considerably with the number of scenarios considered. In this paper, a model to the scheduling of power systems with significant renewable power generation based on scenario generation/reduction method, which establishes a proportional relationship between the number of scenarios and the computational time required to analyse them, is proposed. The methodology takes information from the analysis of each scenario separately to determine the probabilistic behaviour of each generator at each hour in the scheduling problem. Then, considering a determined significance level, the units to be committed are selected and the load dispatch is determined. The proposed technique was illustrated through a case study and the comparison with stochastic programming approach was carried out, concluding that the proposed methodology can provide an acceptable solution in a reduced computational time
Smoothing Brascamp-Lieb Inequalities and Strong Converses for Common Randomness Generation
Liu, Jingbo; Courtade, Thomas A.; Cuff, Paul; Verdu, Sergio
2016-01-01
We study the infimum of the best constant in a functional inequality, the Brascamp-Lieb-like inequality, over auxiliary measures within a neighborhood of a product distribution. In the finite alphabet and the Gaussian cases, such an infimum converges to the best constant in a mutual information inequality. Implications for strong converse properties of two common randomness (CR) generation problems are discussed. In particular, we prove the strong converse property of the rate region for the ...
Distributed Pseudo-Random Number Generation and Its Application to Cloud Database
Chen, Jiageng; Miyaji, Atsuko; Su, Chunhua
2014-01-01
Cloud database is now a rapidly growing trend in cloud computing market recently. It enables the clients run their computation on out-sourcing databases or access to some distributed database service on the cloud. At the same time, the security and privacy concerns is major challenge for cloud database to continue growing. To enhance the security and privacy of the cloud database technology, the pseudo-random number generation (PRNG) plays an important roles in data encryptions and privacy-pr...
Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Boerjeson, Lena; Hoejer, Mattias; Dreborg, Karl-Henrik; Finnveden, Goeran [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Environmental Strategies Research - fms; Ekvall, Tomas [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Energy and Environment
2005-11-01
Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to
Phillips, Carolyn L.; Anderson, Joshua A.; Glotzer, Sharon C.
2011-08-01
Brownian Dynamics (BD), also known as Langevin Dynamics, and Dissipative Particle Dynamics (DPD) are implicit solvent methods commonly used in models of soft matter and biomolecular systems. The interaction of the numerous solvent particles with larger particles is coarse-grained as a Langevin thermostat is applied to individual particles or to particle pairs. The Langevin thermostat requires a pseudo-random number generator (PRNG) to generate the stochastic force applied to each particle or pair of neighboring particles during each time step in the integration of Newton's equations of motion. In a Single-Instruction-Multiple-Thread (SIMT) GPU parallel computing environment, small batches of random numbers must be generated over thousands of threads and millions of kernel calls. In this communication we introduce a one-PRNG-per-kernel-call-per-thread scheme, in which a micro-stream of pseudorandom numbers is generated in each thread and kernel call. These high quality, statistically robust micro-streams require no global memory for state storage, are more computationally efficient than other PRNG schemes in memory-bound kernels, and uniquely enable the DPD simulation method without requiring communication between threads.
Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Palazzo, Amanda; Vervoort, Joost M.; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel
2017-01-01
levels, they have to be connected to an exploration of drivers and challenges informed by regional expertise.In this paper, we present scenarios for West Africa developed by regional stakeholders and quantified using two global economic models, GLOBIOM and IMPACT, in interaction with stakeholder......-generated narratives and scenario trends and SSP assumptions. We present this process as an example of linking comparable scenarios across levels to increase coherence with global contexts, while presenting insights about the future of agriculture and food security under a range of future drivers including climate...... change.In these scenarios, strong economic development increases food security and agricultural development. The latter increases crop and livestock productivity leading to an expansion of agricultural area within the region while reducing the land expansion burden elsewhere. In the context of a global...
Different scenarios to reduce greenhouse gas emissions of thermal power stations in Canada
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zabihian, F.; Fung, A.S.
2009-01-01
The purpose of this paper is to examine greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction potentials in the Canadian electricity generation sector through fuel switching and the adoption of advanced power generation systems. To achieve this purpose, six different scenarios were introduced. In the first scenario existing power stations' fuel was switched to natural gas. Existing power plants were replaced by natural gas combined cycle (NGCC), integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC), solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC), hybrid SOFC, and SOFC-IGCC hybrid power stations in scenarios number 2 to 6, respectively. (author)
Hinchey, Michael G. (Inventor); Margaria, Tiziana (Inventor); Rash, James L. (Inventor); Rouff, Christopher A. (Inventor); Steffen, Bernard (Inventor)
2010-01-01
Systems, methods and apparatus are provided through which in some embodiments, automata learning algorithms and techniques are implemented to generate a more complete set of scenarios for requirements based programming. More specifically, a CSP-based, syntax-oriented model construction, which requires the support of a theorem prover, is complemented by model extrapolation, via automata learning. This may support the systematic completion of the requirements, the nature of the requirement being partial, which provides focus on the most prominent scenarios. This may generalize requirement skeletons by extrapolation and may indicate by way of automatically generated traces where the requirement specification is too loose and additional information is required.
Emissions reduction scenarios in the Argentinean Energy Sector
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Di Sbroiavacca, Nicolás; Nadal, Gustavo; Lallana, Francisco; Falzon, James; Calvin, Katherine
2016-01-01
pathways, the models agree that fossil fuels, in particular natural gas, will remain an important part of the electricity mix in the core baseline scenario. According to the models there is agreement that the introduction of a carbon price will lead to a decline in absolute and relative shares of aggregate fossil fuel generation. However, predictions vary as to the extent to which coal, nuclear and renewable energy play a role. - Highlights: • A scenario that incorporates mitigation measures considered most feasible by relevant Argentinean stakeholders generates a CO_2e emissions reduction of 16% compared to BAU. • This scenario has a total additional cumulative cost of $22.8 Billion (2005 USD) along the period 2010–2050 • A high CO_2 price scenario in LEAP generates a CO_2e emissions reduction of 11.3% compared to the baseline • A high CO_2 price scenario in TIAM-ECN and GCAM generates reductions in CO_2e emissions of 37% and 94% respectively. The main reason for this difference between models includes varying assumptions about technology cost and availability, CO_2 storage capacity, and the ability to import bioenergy. • Under climate policy, natural gas remains an important part of the energy mix, and although models agree that aggregate and proportional fossil fuel use declines, predictions vary as to the extent coal, nuclear and renewable energy play a role moving forward.
McElhone, Rachel L; Meakin, Georgina E; French, James C; Alexander, Tracy; Morgan, Ruth M
2016-07-01
A study was designed to investigate the effects of external variables, including blood type, flooring surface, footwear tread depth and blood dryness, on the appearance of blood-based footwear marks, with particular reference to simulating a specific casework scenario. Results showed that footwear marks left in human blood tended to be of greater quality than those in equine blood, highlighting a potential issue in applying data generated with equine blood to human bloodstains in casework. Footwear tread effects were also dependent on blood type, but the type of flooring surface did not affect the appearance of the mark. Under some conditions, as the blood dried, the amount of detail retained from footwear contact decreased. These results provide the beginnings of an empirical evidence base to allow a more accurate interpretation of blood-based footwear marks in forensic casework. When applied to a disputed bloodstain in a specific case, these results also demonstrate the importance of such experiments in narrowing the range of explanations possible in the interpretation of forensic evidence. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Miranda, Renata Pinto Ribeiro; de Cássia Lopes Chaves, Érika; Silva Lima, Rogério; Braga, Cristiane Giffoni; Simões, Ivandira Anselmo Ribeiro; Fava, Silvana Maria Coelho Leite; Iunes, Denise Hollanda
2017-10-01
Simulation allows students to develop several skills during a bed bath that are difficult to teach only in traditional classroom lectures, such as problem-solving, student interactions with the simulator (patient), reasoning in clinical evaluations, evaluation of responses to interventions, teamwork, communication, security and privacy. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of a simulated bed bath scenario on improving cognitive knowledge, practical performance and satisfaction among nursing students. Randomized controlled clinical trial. Nursing students that were in the fifth period from two educational institutions in Brazil. Nursing students (n=58). The data were collected using the assessments of cognitive knowledge, practical performance and satisfaction were made through a written test about bed baths, an Objective Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE) and a satisfaction questionnaire. We identified that the acquisition and assimilation of cognitive knowledge was significantly higher in the simulation group (p=0.001). The performance was similar in both groups regardless of the teaching strategy (p=0.435). At follow-up, the simulation group had significantly more satisfaction with the teaching method than the control group (p=0.007). The teaching strategy based on a simulated scenario of a bed bath proved to be effective for the acquisition of cognitive knowledge regarding bed baths in clinical practice and improved student satisfaction with the teaching process. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Radioactive waste management and disposal scenario for fusion power reactors
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Tabara, Takashi; Yamano, Naoki [Sumitomo Atomic Energy Industries Ltd., Tokyo (Japan); Seki, Yasushi; Aoki, Isao
1997-10-01
The environmental and economic impact of radioactive waste (radwaste) generated from fusion power reactors using five types of structural materials and a light water reactor (LWR) have been evaluated and compared. At first, the amount and the radioactive level of the radwaste generated in five fusion reactors ware evaluated by an activation calculation code. Next, a possible radwaste disposal scenario applicable to fusion radwaste in Japan is considered and the disposal cost evaluated under certain assumptions. The exposure doses are evaluated for the skyshine of gamma-rays during the disposal operation, groundwater migration scenario during the institutional control period of 300 years and future site use scenario after the institutional period. The radwaste generated from a typical LWR was estimated based on a literature survey and the disposal cost was evaluated using the same assumptions as for the fusion reactors. It is found that the relative cost of disposal is strongly dependent on the cost for interim storage of medium level waste of fusion reactors and the cost of high level waste for the LWR. (author)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Díaz, Guzmán; Gómez-Aleixandre, Javier; Coto, José
2016-01-01
Highlights: • State space representations for simulating wind power plant output are proposed. • The representation of wind speed in state space allows structural analysis. • The joint model incorporates the temporal and spatial dependence structure. • The models are easily integrable into a backward/forward sweep algorithm. • Results evidence the remarkable differences between joint and marginal models. - Abstract: This paper proposes the use of state space models to generate scenarios for the analysis of wind power plant (WPP) generation capabilities. The proposal is rooted on the advantages that state space models present for dealing with stochastic processes; mainly their structural definition and the use of Kalman filter to naturally tackle some involved operations. The specification proposed in this paper comprises a structured representation of individual Box–Jenkins models, with indications about further improvements that can be easily performed. These marginal models are combined to form a joint model in which the dependence structure is easily handled. Indications about the procedure to calibrate and check the model, as well as a validation of its statistical appropriateness, are provided. Application of the proposed state space models provides insight on the need to properly specify the structural dependence between wind speeds. In this paper the joint and marginal models are smoothly integrated into a backward–forward sweep algorithm to determine the performance indicators (voltages and powers) of a WPP through simulation. As a result, visibly heavy tails emerge in the generated power probability distribution through the use of the joint model—incorporating a detailed description of the dependence structure—in contrast with the normally distributed power yielded by the margin-based model.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Park, Nyun-Bae; Yun, Sun-Jin; Jeon, Eui-Chan
2013-01-01
This paper analyzes the energy, environmental and economic influences of three electricity scenarios in Korea by 2050 using the “Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system” (LEAP) model. The reference year was 2008. Scenarios include the baseline (BL), new governmental policy (GP) and sustainable society (SS) scenarios. The growth rate of electricity demand in the GP scenario was higher than that of the BL scenario while the growth rate in the SS scenario was lower than that of the BL scenario. Greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation in 2050 in the BL and GP scenarios were similar with current emissions. However, emissions in 2050 in the SS scenario were about 80% lower than emissions in 2008, because of the expansion of renewable electricity in spite of the phase-out of nuclear energy. While nuclear and coal-fired power plants accounted for most of the electricity generated in the BL and GP scenarios in 2050, the SS scenario projected that renewable energy would generate the most electricity in 2050. It was found that the discounted cumulative costs from 2009 to 2050 in the SS scenario would be 20 and 10% higher than that of the BL and GP scenarios, respectively. - Highlights: ► This paper analyzed three kinds of electricity scenarios in Korea by 2050 using LEAP model. Baseline and governmental policy scenarios focus on the electricity supply through nuclear expansion. ► Sustainable Society scenario focuses on demand management and renewable electricity. ► The latter improves energy security and reduces more GHG with the affordable cost.
Kyoto Protocol Objectives in Croatia Energy Planning: Nuclear Scenario
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Duic, N.; Bogdan, Z.; Juretic, F.; Zeljko, M.
2002-01-01
Croatia as an Annex I country of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and a country that has pledged in the Annex B of the Kyoto Protocol to reduce its greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions by 5% from the pre-transition level by the budget period 2008-12, will have to envisage a new energy strategy. Compared to the energy consumption collapse in some transitional countries like Russia and Ukraine, Croatia has passed through a relatively limited long term reduction of GHG emissions since 1990 because of higher efficiency of its pre-transition economy. It is expected that in case of business as usual scenario it will breach the Kyoto target in 2003 since the demand for energy will be high, especially as the income continues to rise, particularly in domestic use for heating, for transport and for electricity generation. Several scenarios of developing energy system are compared from the point of view of GHG emissions. The energy sector that will most probably be the most influenced by the UNFCCC objectives is electricity generation. Several scenarios are compared. The cost-effective scenario expects a mixture of coal and gas fired power plants to be built to satisfy the new demand and to replace the old power plants that are being decommissioned. More Kyoto friendly scenario envisages the construction of mostly nuclear power plants in the future, while decommissioning the old ones as planned, and is compared to the others from the GHG emissions point of view. The conclusion is that by measures tackling only electricity generation it will not be possible to keep GHG emission under the Kyoto target level, but that choosing the nuclear option might reduce significantly the cost of compliance. (author)
Precise algorithm to generate random sequential adsorption of hard polygons at saturation
Zhang, G.
2018-04-01
Random sequential adsorption (RSA) is a time-dependent packing process, in which particles of certain shapes are randomly and sequentially placed into an empty space without overlap. In the infinite-time limit, the density approaches a "saturation" limit. Although this limit has attracted particular research interest, the majority of past studies could only probe this limit by extrapolation. We have previously found an algorithm to reach this limit using finite computational time for spherical particles and could thus determine the saturation density of spheres with high accuracy. In this paper, we generalize this algorithm to generate saturated RSA packings of two-dimensional polygons. We also calculate the saturation density for regular polygons of three to ten sides and obtain results that are consistent with previous, extrapolation-based studies.
Berger, Jérôme; Bawab, Noura; De Mooij, Jeremy; Sutter Widmer, Denise; Szilas, Nicolas; De Vriese, Carine; Bugnon, Olivier
2018-03-01
To compare online learning tools, looped, branch serious game (SG) and linear text-based scenario (TBS), among a sample of Belgian and Swiss pharmacy students. Open randomized controlled study. The lesson was based on the case of a benign cough in a healthy child. A randomized sample of 117 students: only the Swiss students had attended a previous lecture on coughs. Participation rate, pre- and post-experience Likert scales and students' clinical knowledge were measured. Our primary hypothesis was demonstrated: students favored the SG even if navigation was rated as more complex, and students who performed the SG better understood the aim of pharmacist triage in case of cough. The influence of the SG appeared to be linked to the presence of a previous lecture in the curriculum. SG and TBS are effective to teach pharmacist triage. Higher SG complexity should be used to teach the aim of pharmacist triage in the case of a specific disease and could be an alternative to simulated patients. A simpler TBS does not require a previous lecture and a debriefing to be fully effective. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Random number generation as an index of controlled processing.
Jahanshahi, Marjan; Saleem, T; Ho, Aileen K; Dirnberger, Georg; Fuller, R
2006-07-01
Random number generation (RNG) is a functionally complex process that is highly controlled and therefore dependent on Baddeley's central executive. This study addresses this issue by investigating whether key predictions from this framework are compatible with empirical data. In Experiment 1, the effect of increasing task demands by increasing the rate of the paced generation was comprehensively examined. As expected, faster rates affected performance negatively because central resources were increasingly depleted. Next, the effects of participants' exposure were manipulated in Experiment 2 by providing increasing amounts of practice on the task. There was no improvement over 10 practice trials, suggesting that the high level of strategic control required by the task was constant and not amenable to any automatization gain with repeated exposure. Together, the results demonstrate that RNG performance is a highly controlled and demanding process sensitive to additional demands on central resources (Experiment 1) and is unaffected by repeated performance or practice (Experiment 2). These features render the easily administered RNG task an ideal and robust index of executive function that is highly suitable for repeated clinical use. ((c) 2006 APA, all rights reserved).
Statistical evaluation of PACSTAT random number generation capabilities
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Piepel, G.F.; Toland, M.R.; Harty, H.; Budden, M.J.; Bartley, C.L.
1988-05-01
This report summarizes the work performed in verifying the general purpose Monte Carlo driver-program PACSTAT. The main objective of the work was to verify the performance of PACSTAT's random number generation capabilities. Secondary objectives were to document (using controlled configuration management procedures) changes made in PACSTAT at Pacific Northwest Laboratory, and to assure that PACSTAT input and output files satisfy quality assurance traceability constraints. Upon receipt of the PRIME version of the PACSTAT code from the Basalt Waste Isolation Project, Pacific Northwest Laboratory staff converted the code to run on Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC) VAXs. The modifications to PACSTAT were implemented using the WITNESS configuration management system, with the modifications themselves intended to make the code as portable as possible. Certain modifications were made to make the PACSTAT input and output files conform to quality assurance traceability constraints. 10 refs., 17 figs., 6 tabs.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wang, Yonggang, E-mail: wangyg@ustc.edu.cn; Hui, Cong; Liu, Chong; Xu, Chao [Department of Modern Physics, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026 (China)
2016-04-15
The contribution of this paper is proposing a new entropy extraction mechanism based on sampling phase jitter in ring oscillators to make a high throughput true random number generator in a field programmable gate array (FPGA) practical. Starting from experimental observation and analysis of the entropy source in FPGA, a multi-phase sampling method is exploited to harvest the clock jitter with a maximum entropy and fast sampling speed. This parametrized design is implemented in a Xilinx Artix-7 FPGA, where the carry chains in the FPGA are explored to realize the precise phase shifting. The generator circuit is simple and resource-saving, so that multiple generation channels can run in parallel to scale the output throughput for specific applications. The prototype integrates 64 circuit units in the FPGA to provide a total output throughput of 7.68 Gbps, which meets the requirement of current high-speed quantum key distribution systems. The randomness evaluation, as well as its robustness to ambient temperature, confirms that the new method in a purely digital fashion can provide high-speed high-quality random bit sequences for a variety of embedded applications.
Scenario study on the FBR deployment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ono, Kiyoshi; Kofuji, Hirohide; Otaki, Akira; Yonezawa, Shigeaki; Shinoda, Yoshihiko; Hirao, Kazunori; Ikegami, Tetsuo
2000-12-01
This study on success scenarios for the Fast Breeder Reactor (FBR) deployment was performed taking account of future situation of fossil, renewable and nuclear energies in Japan as well as the world from the viewpoints of the following four items; economics, environment, energy security and restriction of natural uranium resources. In the economics scenario, if carbon tax is added to generating cost of LNG, coal and oil and the economics of FBR cycle is competitive with LWR cycle in the future, FBR cycle will be expected to introduce as the middle and base load power plant. In the environment scenario, there is also any possibility that FBR cycle which can burn and transmute minor actinide and fission product elements will be introduced in order to reduce the burden of deposit facility and the toxicity of high-level waste. In the uranium resources restriction scenario, FBR cycle needs to be deployed at the latest in the middle of 21st century from the viewpoint of the restriction of natural uranium resources. This study was carried out in a part of JNC's feasibility study on commercialized FBR cycle system. (author)
Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen correlations and Bell correlations in the simplest scenario
Quan, Quan; Zhu, Huangjun; Fan, Heng; Yang, Wen-Li
2017-06-01
Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen (EPR) steering is an intermediate type of quantum nonlocality which sits between entanglement and Bell nonlocality. A set of correlations is Bell nonlocal if it does not admit a local hidden variable (LHV) model, while it is EPR nonlocal if it does not admit a local hidden variable-local hidden state (LHV-LHS) model. It is interesting to know what states can generate EPR-nonlocal correlations in the simplest nontrivial scenario, that is, two projective measurements for each party sharing a two-qubit state. Here we show that a two-qubit state can generate EPR-nonlocal full correlations (excluding marginal statistics) in this scenario if and only if it can generate Bell-nonlocal correlations. If full statistics (including marginal statistics) is taken into account, surprisingly, the same scenario can manifest the simplest one-way steering and the strongest hierarchy between steering and Bell nonlocality. To illustrate these intriguing phenomena in simple setups, several concrete examples are discussed in detail, which facilitates experimental demonstration. In the course of study, we introduce the concept of restricted LHS models and thereby derive a necessary and sufficient semidefinite-programming criterion to determine the steerability of any bipartite state under given measurements. Analytical criteria are further derived in several scenarios of strong theoretical and experimental interest.
Exploring nuclear energy scenarios - implications of technology and fuel cycle choices
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rayment, Fiona; Mathers, Dan; Gregg, Robert
2014-01-01
Nuclear Energy is recognised globally as a mature, reliable low carbon technology with a secure and abundant fuel source. Within the UK, Nuclear Energy is an essential contributor to the energy mix and as such a decision has been made to refresh the current nuclear energy plants to at least replacement of the existing nuclear fleet. This will mean the building of new nuclear power plant to ensure energy production of 16 GWe per annum. However it is also recognised that this may not be enough and as such expansion scenarios ranging from replacement of the existing fleet to 75 GWe nuclear energy capacity are being considered (see appendix). Within these energy scenarios, a variety of options are being evaluated including electricity generation only, electricity generation plus heat, open versus closed fuel cycles, Generation III versus Generation IV systems and combinations of the above. What is clear is that the deciding factor on the type and mix of any energy programme will not be on technology choice alone. Instead a complex mix of Government policy, relative cost of nuclear power, market decisions and public opinion will influence the rate and direction of growth of any future energy programme. The UK National Nuclear Laboratory has supported this work through the use and development of a variety of assessment and modelling techniques. When assessing nuclear energy scenarios, the technology chosen will impact on a number of parameters within each scenario which includes but is not limited to: - Economics, - Nuclear energy demand, - Fuel Supply, - Spent fuel storage / recycle, - Geological repository volumetric and radiological capacity, - Sustainability - effective resource utilisation, - Technology viability and readiness level. A number of assessment and modelling techniques have been developed and are described further. In particular, they examine fuel cycle options for a number of nuclear energy scenarios, whilst exploring key implications for a particular
Random number generators for large-scale parallel Monte Carlo simulations on FPGA
Lin, Y.; Wang, F.; Liu, B.
2018-05-01
Through parallelization, field programmable gate array (FPGA) can achieve unprecedented speeds in large-scale parallel Monte Carlo (LPMC) simulations. FPGA presents both new constraints and new opportunities for the implementations of random number generators (RNGs), which are key elements of any Monte Carlo (MC) simulation system. Using empirical and application based tests, this study evaluates all of the four RNGs used in previous FPGA based MC studies and newly proposed FPGA implementations for two well-known high-quality RNGs that are suitable for LPMC studies on FPGA. One of the newly proposed FPGA implementations: a parallel version of additive lagged Fibonacci generator (Parallel ALFG) is found to be the best among the evaluated RNGs in fulfilling the needs of LPMC simulations on FPGA.
Renewable Energy Generation in India: Present Scenario and Future Prospects
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Singh, Sri Niwas; Singh, Bharat; Østergaard, Jacob
2009-01-01
The development of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) is necessary for the sustainable development of any country due to depleting fossil fuel level, climbing fossil fuel prices across the world and more recently pressure for reduction emission level. In India, several schemes and policies are launched...... by the government to support the use of RES to achieve energy security and self-sufficiency. This paper discusses the present scenario and future prospects of RES in India. Various schemes such as financial assistance, tax holiday etc for promoting RESs development and utilization are also discussed. The present...
Bosch, Holger; Steinkamp, Fiona; Boller, Emil
2006-01-01
Seance-room and other large-scale psychokinetic phenomena have fascinated humankind for decades. Experimental research has reduced these phenomena to attempts to influence (a) the fall of dice and, later, (b) the output of random number generators (RNGs). The meta-analysis combined 380 studies that assessed whether RNG output correlated with human…
Analysis of a Spanish energy scenario with Generation IV nuclear reactors
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ochoa, Raquel; Jimenez, Gonzalo; Perez-Martin, Sara
2013-01-01
Highlights: • Spanish energy scenario for the hypothetical deployment of Gen-IV SFR reactors. • Availability of national resources is assessed, considering SFR’s breeding. • An assessment of the impact of transmuting MA on the final repository. • SERPENT code with own pre- and post-processing tools were employed. • The employed SFR core design is based on the specifications of the CP-ESFR. - Abstract: The advantages of fast-spectrum reactors consist not only of an efficient use of fuel through the breeding of fissile material and the use of natural or depleted uranium, but also of the potential reduction of the amount of actinides such as americium and neptunium contained in the irradiated fuel. The first aspect means a guaranteed future nuclear fuel supply. The second fact is key for high-level radioactive waste management, because these elements are the main responsible for the radioactivity of the irradiated fuel in the long term. The present study aims to analyze the hypothetical deployment of a Gen-IV Sodium Fast Reactor (SFR) fleet in Spain. A nuclear fleet of fast reactors would enable a fuel cycle strategy different than the open cycle, currently adopted by most of the countries with nuclear power. A transition from the current Gen-II to Gen-IV fleet is envisaged through an intermediate deployment of Gen-III reactors. Fuel reprocessing from the Gen-II and Gen-III Light Water Reactors (LWR) has been considered. In the so-called advanced fuel cycle, the reprocessed fuel used to produce energy will breed new fissile fuel and transmute minor actinides at the same time. A reference case scenario has been postulated and further sensitivity studies have been performed to analyze the impact of the different parameters on the required reactor fleet. The potential capability of Spain to supply the required fleet for the reference scenario using national resources has been verified. Finally, some consequences on irradiated final fuel inventory are assessed
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nicholas J. Sexton
2014-07-01
Full Text Available Random number generation (RNG is a complex cognitive task for human subjects, requiring deliberative control to avoid production of habitual, stereotyped sequences. Under various manipulations (e.g., speeded responding, transcranial magnetic stimulation, or neurological damage the performance of human subjects deteriorates, as reflected in a number of qualitatively distinct, dissociable biases. For example, the intrusion of stereotyped behaviour (e.g., counting increases at faster rates of generation. Theoretical accounts of the task postulate that it requires the integrated operation of multiple, computationally heterogeneous cognitive control ('executive' processes. We present a computational model of RNG, within the framework of a novel, neuropsychologically-inspired cognitive architecture, ESPro. Manipulating the rate of sequence generation in the model reproduced a number of key effects observed in empirical studies, including increasing sequence stereotypy at faster rates. Within the model, this was due to time limitations on the interaction of supervisory control processes, namely, task setting, proposal of responses, monitoring, and response inhibition. The model thus supports the fractionation of executive function into multiple, computationally heterogeneous processes.
Creating, generating and comparing random network models with NetworkRandomizer.
Tosadori, Gabriele; Bestvina, Ivan; Spoto, Fausto; Laudanna, Carlo; Scardoni, Giovanni
2016-01-01
Biological networks are becoming a fundamental tool for the investigation of high-throughput data in several fields of biology and biotechnology. With the increasing amount of information, network-based models are gaining more and more interest and new techniques are required in order to mine the information and to validate the results. To fill the validation gap we present an app, for the Cytoscape platform, which aims at creating randomised networks and randomising existing, real networks. Since there is a lack of tools that allow performing such operations, our app aims at enabling researchers to exploit different, well known random network models that could be used as a benchmark for validating real, biological datasets. We also propose a novel methodology for creating random weighted networks, i.e. the multiplication algorithm, starting from real, quantitative data. Finally, the app provides a statistical tool that compares real versus randomly computed attributes, in order to validate the numerical findings. In summary, our app aims at creating a standardised methodology for the validation of the results in the context of the Cytoscape platform.
Global climate-oriented transportation scenarios
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Harvey, L.D.D.
2013-01-01
This paper develops scenarios whereby CO 2 emissions from the transportation sector are eliminated worldwide by the end of this century. Data concerning the energy intensity and utilization of different passenger and freight transportation modes in 2005, and per capita income, in 10 different socio-economic regions of the world are combined with scenarios of population and per capita GDP to generate scenarios of future transportation energy demand. The impact of various technical options (improvements in the energy intensity of all transportation modes, changes in the proportions of vehicles with different drive trains, and a shift to biomass or hydrogen for the non-electricity energy requirements) and behavioural options (a shift to less energy-intensive LDV market segments, a reduction in total passenger-km of travel per capita, and an increase in the share of less energy-intensive passenger and freight modes of transport) is assessed. To eliminate transportation fossil fuel emissions within this century while limiting the demand for electricity, biofuels or hydrogen to manageable levels requires the simultaneous application of all the technical and behavioural measures considered here, with improvements in vehicle efficiencies and a shift to plug-in hybrid and battery-electric drive trains for light duty vehicles being the most important measures. - Highlights: ► Scenarios are developed whereby transportation CO 2 emissions reach zero by 2100. ► These scenarios address concerns about peak oil and global warming. ► A comprehensive mix of technical and behavioural changes is considered in 10 world regions. ► Efficiency improvements and a shift to plug-in hybrid vehicles are the most important measures
Sustainable energy-economic-environmental scenarios
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
NONE
2002-03-31
IIASA's Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS) Project has proposed a quantitative 'working definition' of sustainable development E3 (energy-economic-environmental) scenarios. ECS has proposed four criteria for sustainability: economic growth is sustained throughout the time horizon; socioeconomic inequity among world regions is reduced over the 21st century; reserves-to-production (R/P) ratio for exhaustible primary energy resources do not decline; and long-term environmental stress is mitigated. Using these criteria, 40 long-term E3 scenarios generated by ECS models were reviewed and analyzed. Amongst the conclusions drawn were: slow population growth or stabilization of global population appears to be prerequisite for sustainable development; economic growth alone does not guarantee a sustainable future; carbon intensities of total primary energy must decrease faster than the historical trend; strategies for fossil fuel consumption must aim at non-decreasing R/P ratios; and carbon emissions must be near or below today's levels at the end of this century. The analysis of sustainable development scenarios is an important step towards formulating long-term strategies aimed at climate stabilization. 6 figs., 1 tab.
Scenarios and Strategies for Africa
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
NONE
2011-11-15
In 2011, IRENA will start developing scenarios and strategies for Africa. This is a pilot study for a project that will ultimately encompass the whole world. The selection of Africa first indicates the priority that the IRENA work programme places on the continent. In the framework of the 2011 IRENA work programme, the analysis of scenarios and strategies will feed into the renewables readiness assessment, which will assess policy priorities and best practices in renewable energy policy-making. This, in turn, will be the basis for financing investment and capacity building activities. Energy policy advice must consider issues, such as the structure of energy supply and demand, the past and future energy trends, renewable energy resources, energy economics and technology access. Scenarios and strategies are key tools for such an analysis. Regional and national differences must be considered and individual sectors and end-use categories further analysed. These include power generation, cooking, heating, industrial process heat, and transport. Urban and rural solutions will be dealt with separately, as well as centralised and decentralised solutions. The analysis will cover issues, such as potentials, technology, supply chains and investment needs.
Li, Xiayue; Curtis, Farren S.; Rose, Timothy; Schober, Christoph; Vazquez-Mayagoitia, Alvaro; Reuter, Karsten; Oberhofer, Harald; Marom, Noa
2018-06-01
We present Genarris, a Python package that performs configuration space screening for molecular crystals of rigid molecules by random sampling with physical constraints. For fast energy evaluations, Genarris employs a Harris approximation, whereby the total density of a molecular crystal is constructed via superposition of single molecule densities. Dispersion-inclusive density functional theory is then used for the Harris density without performing a self-consistency cycle. Genarris uses machine learning for clustering, based on a relative coordinate descriptor developed specifically for molecular crystals, which is shown to be robust in identifying packing motif similarity. In addition to random structure generation, Genarris offers three workflows based on different sequences of successive clustering and selection steps: the "Rigorous" workflow is an exhaustive exploration of the potential energy landscape, the "Energy" workflow produces a set of low energy structures, and the "Diverse" workflow produces a maximally diverse set of structures. The latter is recommended for generating initial populations for genetic algorithms. Here, the implementation of Genarris is reported and its application is demonstrated for three test cases.
Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.
2014-04-01
Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.
Two graphical user interfaces for managing and analyzing MODFLOW groundwater-model scenarios
Banta, Edward R.
2014-01-01
Scenario Manager and Scenario Analyzer are graphical user interfaces that facilitate the use of calibrated, MODFLOW-based groundwater models for investigating possible responses to proposed stresses on a groundwater system. Scenario Manager allows a user, starting with a calibrated model, to design and run model scenarios by adding or modifying stresses simulated by the model. Scenario Analyzer facilitates the process of extracting data from model output and preparing such display elements as maps, charts, and tables. Both programs are designed for users who are familiar with the science on which groundwater modeling is based but who may not have a groundwater modeler’s expertise in building and calibrating a groundwater model from start to finish. With Scenario Manager, the user can manipulate model input to simulate withdrawal or injection wells, time-variant specified hydraulic heads, recharge, and such surface-water features as rivers and canals. Input for stresses to be simulated comes from user-provided geographic information system files and time-series data files. A Scenario Manager project can contain multiple scenarios and is self-documenting. Scenario Analyzer can be used to analyze output from any MODFLOW-based model; it is not limited to use with scenarios generated by Scenario Manager. Model-simulated values of hydraulic head, drawdown, solute concentration, and cell-by-cell flow rates can be presented in display elements. Map data can be represented as lines of equal value (contours) or as a gradated color fill. Charts and tables display time-series data obtained from output generated by a transient-state model run or from user-provided text files of time-series data. A display element can be based entirely on output of a single model run, or, to facilitate comparison of results of multiple scenarios, an element can be based on output from multiple model runs. Scenario Analyzer can export display elements and supporting metadata as a Portable
Stochastic generation of explicit pore structures by thresholding Gaussian random fields
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hyman, Jeffrey D., E-mail: jhyman@lanl.gov [Program in Applied Mathematics, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721-0089 (United States); Computational Earth Science, Earth and Environmental Sciences (EES-16), and Center for Nonlinear Studies, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87544 (United States); Winter, C. Larrabee, E-mail: winter@email.arizona.edu [Program in Applied Mathematics, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721-0089 (United States); Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721-0011 (United States)
2014-11-15
We provide a description and computational investigation of an efficient method to stochastically generate realistic pore structures. Smolarkiewicz and Winter introduced this specific method in pores resolving simulation of Darcy flows (Smolarkiewicz and Winter, 2010 [1]) without giving a complete formal description or analysis of the method, or indicating how to control the parameterization of the ensemble. We address both issues in this paper. The method consists of two steps. First, a realization of a correlated Gaussian field, or topography, is produced by convolving a prescribed kernel with an initial field of independent, identically distributed random variables. The intrinsic length scales of the kernel determine the correlation structure of the topography. Next, a sample pore space is generated by applying a level threshold to the Gaussian field realization: points are assigned to the void phase or the solid phase depending on whether the topography over them is above or below the threshold. Hence, the topology and geometry of the pore space depend on the form of the kernel and the level threshold. Manipulating these two user prescribed quantities allows good control of pore space observables, in particular the Minkowski functionals. Extensions of the method to generate media with multiple pore structures and preferential flow directions are also discussed. To demonstrate its usefulness, the method is used to generate a pore space with physical and hydrological properties similar to a sample of Berea sandstone. -- Graphical abstract: -- Highlights: •An efficient method to stochastically generate realistic pore structures is provided. •Samples are generated by applying a level threshold to a Gaussian field realization. •Two user prescribed quantities determine the topology and geometry of the pore space. •Multiple pore structures and preferential flow directions can be produced. •A pore space based on Berea sandstone is generated.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Tatsuta, M [New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization, Tokyo (Japan)
1994-12-01
This paper reports the result obtained during fiscal 1994 on a survey to prepare scenario for the diffusion of photovoltaic power generating systems. Introduction target planned with help of a diffusion simulation was verified by calculations using simulation models. The calculations made the following points clear: facility costs and power generation costs for photovoltaic power generation systems, amount of introduced photovoltaic power generation systems, number of facilities introducing photovoltaic power generation systems, policy cost to achieve the target, annual power generation amount, oil substituting effect, carbon dioxide reducing effect, and market sizes. Power generation cost in fiscal 2000 would drop down to 53 yen per kWh in new installation in independent houses and down to 31 yen per kWh in systems used in schools. These reductions are the result of progress in mass production as a result of positively implementing the aiding policies. The required diffusion aiding policies revealed from the simulation results include expansion of subsidy operations for house construction, introduction of the systems into public facilities performed by public organizations, aid to system introduction into private business entities, subsidy to facility investments, and enforcement of power purchase institutions. 3 figs.
Lawnik, Marcin
2018-01-01
The scope of the paper is the presentation of a new method of generating numbers from a given distribution. The method uses the inverse cumulative distribution function and a method of flattening of probabilistic distributions. On the grounds of these methods, a new construction of chaotic maps was derived, which generates values from a given distribution. The analysis of the new method was conducted on the example of a newly constructed chaotic recurrences, based on the Box-Muller transformation and the quantile function of the exponential distribution. The obtained results certify that the proposed method may be successively applicable for the construction of generators of pseudo-random numbers.
Techno-economic and environmental analysis of power generation expansion plan of Ghana
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Awopone, Albert K.; Zobaa, Ahmed F.; Banuenumah, Walter
2017-01-01
This paper examines the current electrical generation expansion plan of Ghana and compares it with proposed expansion pathways with higher penetration of Renewable Energy Technologies. An adaptation of Schwartz's Scenario Methodology was used to develop the scenarios which were then analysed using the Long-range Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model. Each of the scenarios represents policy options for generation expansion in Ghana up to 2040. Energy, economic and environmental analysis of the three alternative scenarios compared to the base scenarios was undertaken. Sensitivity results show that, if the country were to follow the generation expansion path described in the renewable energy scenarios, it could reap economic benefits of 0.5–13.23% depending on the developments in fuel prices and renewable technology capital cost. The analysis further quantifies benefits to be derived from a reduction in Greenhouse gases of the scenarios. Policy implications for the generation system of Ghana based on the results are also discussed. - Highlights: • LEAP demand projection for Ghana from 2010 to 2014. • Develop scenarios using an adaptation of Schwartz’s scenario approach. • Develop LEAP model for generation scenario. • Each scenario represents possible generation expansion strategy. • High renewable energy systems penetration results in net economic and environmental benefits.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hong, Sungjun; Chung, Yanghon; Woo, Chungwon
2015-01-01
South Korea, as the 9th largest energy consuming in 2013 and the 7th largest greenhouse gas emitting country in 2011, established ‘Low Carbon Green Growth’ as the national vision in 2008, and is announcing various active energy policies that are set to gain the attention of the world. In this paper, we estimated the decrease of photovoltaic power generation cost in Korea based on the learning curve theory. Photovoltaic energy is one of the leading renewable energy sources, and countries all over the world are currently expanding R and D, demonstration and deployment of photovoltaic technology. In order to estimate the learning rate of photovoltaic energy in Korea, both conventional 1FLC (one-factor learning curve), which considers only the cumulative power generation, and 2FLC, which also considers R and D investment were applied. The 1FLC analysis showed that the cost of power generation decreased by 3.1% as the cumulative power generation doubled. The 2FCL analysis presented that the cost decreases by 2.33% every time the cumulative photovoltaic power generation is doubled and by 5.13% every time R and D investment is doubled. Moreover, the effect of R and D investment on photovoltaic technology took after around 3 years, and the depreciation rate of R and D investment was around 20%. - Highlights: • We analyze the learning effects of photovoltaic energy technology in Korea. • In order to calculate the learning rate, we use 1FLC (one-factor learning curve) and 2FLC methods, respectively. • 1FLC method considers only the cumulative power generation. • 2FLC method considers both cumulative power generation and knowledge stock. • We analyze a variety of scenarios by time lag and depreciation rate of R and D investment
Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander
2011-03-01
In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can
Generative Learning Objects Instantiated with Random Numbers Based Expressions
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ciprian Bogdan Chirila
2015-12-01
Full Text Available The development of interactive e-learning content requires special skills like programming techniques, web integration, graphic design etc. Generally, online educators do not possess such skills and their e-learning products tend to be static like presentation slides and textbooks. In this paper we propose a new interactive model of generative learning objects as a compromise betweenstatic, dull materials and dynamic, complex software e-learning materials developed by specialized teams. We find that random numbers based automatic initialization learning objects increases content diversity, interactivity thus enabling learners’ engagement. The resulted learning object model is at a limited level of complexity related to special e-learning software, intuitive and capable of increasing learners’ interactivity, engagement and motivation through dynamic content. The approach was applied successfully on several computer programing disciplines.
Random source generating far field with elliptical flat-topped beam profile
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhang, Yongtao; Cai, Yangjian
2014-01-01
Circular and rectangular multi-Gaussian Schell-model (MGSM) sources which generate far fields with circular and rectangular flat-topped beam profiles were introduced just recently (Sahin and Korotkova 2012 Opt. Lett. 37 2970; Korotkova 2014 Opt. Lett. 39 64). In this paper, a random source named an elliptical MGSM source is introduced. An analytical expression for the propagation factor of an elliptical MGSM beam is derived. Furthermore, an analytical propagation formula for an elliptical MGSM beam passing through a stigmatic ABCD optical system is derived, and its propagation properties in free space are studied. It is interesting to find that an elliptical MGSM source generates a far field with an elliptical flat-topped beam profile, being qualitatively different from that of circular and rectangular MGSM sources. The ellipticity and the flatness of the elliptical flat-topped beam profile in the far field are determined by the initial coherence widths and the beam index, respectively. (paper)
U. S. electricity shortfall: three scenarios
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Vanderslice, T.A.
1979-01-01
Scenarios in which no nuclear-generating capacity is added between 1981 and 1985 and the goal of doubling coal utilization is only 50% successful show electric power shortfalls over most of the U.S. by 1985, with the industrial central regions the hardest hit. Since conservation alone cannot carry the nation through a transition from oil dependence to coal and nuclear, the author stresses the importance of identifying the consequences of such a shortfall. General Electric's scenarios are projected for shortfalls in energy supply, electric power, and oil and natural gas to determine the effect on gross national product, business investment, production growth, inflation foreign exchange rates, and employment levels. Near-term crises in power plant shortages are indicated by the energy models.
New Methods for Crafting Locally Decision-Relevant Scenarios
Lempert, R. J.
2015-12-01
Scenarios can play an important role in helping decision makers to imagine future worlds, both good and bad, different than the one with which we are familiar and to take concrete steps now to address the risks generated by climate change. At their best, scenarios can effectively represent deep uncertainty; integrate over multiple domains; and enable parties with different expectation and values to expand the range of futures they consider, to see the world from different points of view, and to grapple seriously with the potential implications of surprising or inconvenient futures. These attributes of scenario processes can prove crucial in helping craft effective responses to climate change. But traditional scenario methods can also fail to overcome difficulties related to choosing, communicating, and using scenarios to identify, evaluate, and reach consensus on appropriate policies. Such challenges can limit scenario's impact in broad public discourse. This talk will demonstrate how new decision support approaches can employ new quantitative tools that allow scenarios to emerge from a process of deliberation with analysis among stakeholders, rather than serve as inputs to it, thereby increasing the impacts of scenarios on decision making. This talk will demonstrate these methods in the design of a decision support tool to help residents of low lying coastal cities grapple with the long-term risks of sea level rise. In particular, this talk will show how information from the IPCC SSP's can be combined with local information to provide a rich set of locally decision-relevant information.
International scenarios of the Venezuelan oil industry
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Reinoso, Felipe; Irsay, Jorge E.
1999-01-01
The times of stability of the energy business, which characterized the 50s and the 60s came to their end in the 70s. From that moment on, new times have become times of quick changes and high uncertainty. In order to minimize the impact of the surprises that the future may bring, and so decrease the managers' decision making risk, many companies use the scenario planning process. The end purpose of scenario planning is the creation of an organization that will adapted to changes, a learning organization, that is able to identify the business environment un knows and to use this knowledge as one of its advantages. The present article shows the scenarios generated for the Venezuelan oil industry's strategic planning exercise for the 1999-2015 period. Theses scenarios are Consensus and Harmony, Regions and Environment, Conflicts and Decadence and Pragmatic Community. It is concluded from them that oil business success would be supported by differentiation as a secure, trusted and low cost producer; early oil and gas opportunities identification; Hemispherical integration and/or bilateral commercial agreements; oil and gas business portfolio diversification; and diversification to state-of-the-art technologies for renewable forms of energy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Merino Rodriguez, I.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Martin-Fuertes, F.
2013-01-01
In this work the transition from the existing Light Water Reactors (LWR) to the advanced reactors is analyzed, including Generation III+ reactors in a European framework. Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options have been addressed. The first scenario (i.e., reference) is the current fleet using LWR technology and open fuel cycle. The second scenario assumes a full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U-Pu MOX fuel. The third scenario is a modification of the second one introducing Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet. Finally, in the fourth scenario, the LWR fleet is replaced using FR with MOX fuel as well as Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS) for MA transmutation. All scenarios consider an intermediate period of GEN-III+ LWR deployment and they extend for a period of 200 years looking for equilibrium mass flows. The simulations were made using the TR-EVOL code, a tool for fuel cycle studies developed by CIEMAT. The results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand (U and Pu). Concerning to no transmutation cases, the second scenario reduces considerably the Pu inventory in repositories compared to the reference scenario, although the MA inventory increases. The transmutation scenarios show that elimination of the LWR MA legacy requires on one hand a maximum of 33% fraction (i.e., a peak value of 26 FR units) of the FR fleet dedicated to transmutation (MA in MOX fuel, homogeneous transmutation). On the other hand a maximum number of ADS plants accounting for 5% of electricity generation are predicted in the fourth scenario (i.e., 35 ADS units). Regarding the economic analysis, the estimations show an increase of LCOE (Levelized cost of electricity) - averaged over the whole period - with respect to the reference scenario of 21% and 29% for FR and FR with transmutation scenarios respectively, and 34% for the fourth scenario. (authors)
Scenario Analysis for the Safety Assessment of Nuclear Waste Repositories: A Critical Review.
Tosoni, Edoardo; Salo, Ahti; Zio, Enrico
2018-04-01
A major challenge in scenario analysis for the safety assessment of nuclear waste repositories pertains to the comprehensiveness of the set of scenarios selected for assessing the safety of the repository. Motivated by this challenge, we discuss the aspects of scenario analysis relevant to comprehensiveness. Specifically, we note that (1) it is necessary to make it clear why scenarios usually focus on a restricted set of features, events, and processes; (2) there is not yet consensus on the interpretation of comprehensiveness for guiding the generation of scenarios; and (3) there is a need for sound approaches to the treatment of epistemic uncertainties. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.
Scenario guidance handbook for emergency-preparedness exercises at nuclear facilities
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Laughlin, G.J.; Martin, G.F.; Desrosiers, A.E.
1983-01-01
As part of the Emergency Preparedness Implementation Appraisal Program conducted by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) with the technical assistance of the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL), emergency preparedness exercises are observed on an annual basis at all licensed reactor facilities. One of the significant findings to arise from these observations was that a large number of the commonly observed problems originated in the design of the scenarios used as a basis for each exercise. In an effort to help eliminate some of these problems a scenario guidance handbook has been generated by PNL for the NRC to assist nuclear power plant licensees in developing scenarios for emergency preparedness exercises
Designing Scenarios for Controller-in-the-Loop Air Traffic Simulations
Kupfer, Michael; Mercer, Joey; Cabrall, Chris; Homola, Jeff; Callantine, Todd
2013-01-01
Within the Human Factors Division at NASA Ames Research Center the Airspace Operations Laboratory (AOL) is developing advanced automation concepts that help to transform the National Airspace System into NextGen, the Next Generation Air Transportation System. High-fidelity human-in-the-loop (HITL) simulations are used as a means to investigate and develop roles, responsibilities, support tools, and requirements for human operators and automation. This paper describes the traffic scenario design process and strategies as used by AOL researchers. Details are presented on building scenarios for specific simulation objectives using various design strategies. A focus is set on creating scenarios based on recorded real world traffic for terminal-area simulations.
Attributes Of Quality Scenarios/Scenario Sets Used In Software Requirements Elicitation
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Braun, Kimberly
1997-01-01
.... This thesis examines scenarios used in software requirements elicitation. Many different definitions, formats, and ideas exist on scenarios, but no thorough work has been done on what makes a good, quality scenario and scenario set...
The determinants of cost efficiency of hydroelectric generating plants: A random frontier approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Barros, Carlos P.; Peypoch, Nicolas
2007-01-01
This paper analyses the technical efficiency in the hydroelectric generating plants of a main Portuguese electricity enterprise EDP (Electricity of Portugal) between 1994 and 2004, investigating the role played by increase in competition and regulation. A random cost frontier method is adopted. A translog frontier model is used and the maximum likelihood estimation technique is employed to estimate the empirical model. We estimate the efficiency scores and decompose the exogenous variables into homogeneous and heterogeneous. It is concluded that production and capacity are heterogeneous, signifying that the hydroelectric generating plants are very distinct and therefore any energy policy should take into account this heterogeneity. It is also concluded that competition, rather than regulation, plays the key role in increasing hydroelectric plant efficiency
The design of remote discharge scenario management system on EAST
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Chai, W.T, E-mail: wtchai@ipp.ac.cn [Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui (China); University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui (China); Xiao, B.J [Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui (China); University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui (China); Yuan, Q.P; Zhang, R.R. [Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui (China)
2016-11-15
Highlights: • The remote discharge scenario management system is established on EAST, it provides some useful function for operators to manage discharge scenarios and formulate discharge schedule. • Operators can use this system to formulate discharge schedule on account of it can electing optimal scenarios automatically. • The system is not only for local user but also for remote user. • In the future, we can combine with actual discharge data and data mining technology to acquire optimal configuration, which to generate expert database and guiding experiment. - Abstract: The discharge scenarios on EAST plasma control system (PCS), characterized by different waveform parameters and different hardware requirements, will need a systematic discharge scenario management system for remote and local operators, in order to optimize storage structure and rationally manage discharge time. The remote management of discharge scenarios will require extending the functionalities of the present PCS “future shot” and “next shot” modules. Taking advantage of database technique, the operators can acquire detail information of all discharge scenarios directly without PCS user interface and search the specified scenarios by key words. In addition, the system can elect optimal scenarios automatically based on discharge schedule and plasma pulse setting for later artificial selection. To this purpose, a new remote discharge scenario management system (RDSMS) basis for Web is being conceived on EAST. The system contains a database with functions of “user management”, “scenario verification”, “prepared scenario management”, “actual discharge scenario management” and “discharge schedule management”. This paper will present the relevant conceptual design and give an account of the test results for implementation on EAST discharges.
The design of remote discharge scenario management system on EAST
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chai, W.T; Xiao, B.J; Yuan, Q.P; Zhang, R.R.
2016-01-01
Highlights: • The remote discharge scenario management system is established on EAST, it provides some useful function for operators to manage discharge scenarios and formulate discharge schedule. • Operators can use this system to formulate discharge schedule on account of it can electing optimal scenarios automatically. • The system is not only for local user but also for remote user. • In the future, we can combine with actual discharge data and data mining technology to acquire optimal configuration, which to generate expert database and guiding experiment. - Abstract: The discharge scenarios on EAST plasma control system (PCS), characterized by different waveform parameters and different hardware requirements, will need a systematic discharge scenario management system for remote and local operators, in order to optimize storage structure and rationally manage discharge time. The remote management of discharge scenarios will require extending the functionalities of the present PCS “future shot” and “next shot” modules. Taking advantage of database technique, the operators can acquire detail information of all discharge scenarios directly without PCS user interface and search the specified scenarios by key words. In addition, the system can elect optimal scenarios automatically based on discharge schedule and plasma pulse setting for later artificial selection. To this purpose, a new remote discharge scenario management system (RDSMS) basis for Web is being conceived on EAST. The system contains a database with functions of “user management”, “scenario verification”, “prepared scenario management”, “actual discharge scenario management” and “discharge schedule management”. This paper will present the relevant conceptual design and give an account of the test results for implementation on EAST discharges.
Security Flaws in an Efficient Pseudo-Random Number Generator for Low-Power Environments
Peris-Lopez, Pedro; Hernandez-Castro, Julio C.; Tapiador, Juan M. E.; Millán, Enrique San; van der Lubbe, Jan C. A.
In 2004, Settharam and Rhee tackled the design of a lightweight Pseudo-Random Number Generator (PRNG) suitable for low-power environments (e.g. sensor networks, low-cost RFID tags). First, they explicitly fixed a set of requirements for this primitive. Then, they proposed a PRNG conforming to these requirements and using a free-running timer [9]. We analyze this primitive discovering important security faults. The proposed algorithm fails to pass even relatively non-stringent batteries of randomness such as ENT (i.e. a pseudorandom number sequence test program). We prove that their recommended PRNG has a very short period due to the flawed design of its core. The internal state can be easily revealed, compromising its backward and forward security. Additionally, the rekeying algorithm is defectively designed mainly related to the unpractical value proposed for this purpose.
Online scenario labeling using a hidden Markov model for assessment of nuclear plant state
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zamalieva, Daniya; Yilmaz, Alper; Aldemir, Tunc
2013-01-01
By taking into account both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties within the same probabilistic framework, dynamic event trees (DETs) provide more comprehensive and systematic coverage of possible scenarios following an initiating event compared to conventional event trees. When DET generation algorithms are applied to complex realistic systems, extremely large amounts of data can be produced due to both the large number of scenarios generated following a single initiating event and the large number of data channels that represent these scenarios. In addition, the computational time required for the simulation of each scenario can be very large (e.g. about 24 h of serial run simulation time for a 4 h station blackout scenario). Since scenarios leading to system failure are more of interest, a method is proposed for online labeling of scenarios as failure or non-failure. The algorithm first trains a Hidden Markov Model, which represents the behavior of non-failure scenarios, using a training set from previous simulations. Then, the maximum likelihoods of sample failure and non-failure scenarios fitting this model are computed. These values are used to determine the timestamp at which the labeling of a certain scenario should be performed. Finally, during the succeeding timestamps, the likelihood of each scenario fitting the learned model is computed, and a dynamic thresholding based on the previously calculated likelihood values is applied. The scenarios whose likelihood is higher than the threshold are labeled as non-failure. The proposed algorithm can further delay the non-failure scenarios or discontinue them in order to redirect the computational resources toward the failure scenarios, and reduce computational time and complexity. Experiments using RELAP5/3D model of a fast reactor utilizing an Reactor Vessel Auxiliary Cooling System (RVACS) passive decay heat removal system and dynamic analysis of a station blackout (SBO) event show that the proposed method is
Mars Scenario-Based Visioning: Logistical Optimization of Transportation Architectures
1999-01-01
The purpose of this conceptual design investigation is to examine transportation forecasts for future human Wu missions to Mars. - Scenario-Based Visioning is used to generate possible future demand projections. These scenarios are then coupled with availability, cost, and capacity parameters for indigenously designed Mars Transfer Vehicles (solar electric, nuclear thermal, and chemical propulsion types) and Earth-to-Orbit launch vehicles (current, future, and indigenous) to provide a cost-conscious dual-phase launch manifest to meet such future demand. A simulator named M-SAT (Mars Scenario Analysis Tool) is developed using this method. This simulation is used to examine three specific transportation scenarios to Mars: a limited "flaus and footprints" mission, a More ambitious scientific expedition similar to an expanded version of the Design Reference Mission from NASA, and a long-term colonization scenario. Initial results from the simulation indicate that chemical propulsion systems might be the architecture of choice for all three scenarios. With this mind, "what if' analyses were performed which indicated that if nuclear production costs were reduced by 30% for the colonization scenario, then the nuclear architecture would have a lower life cycle cost than the chemical. Results indicate that the most cost-effective solution to the Mars transportation problem is to plan for segmented development, this involves development of one vehicle at one opportunity and derivatives of that vehicle at subsequent opportunities.
Constructing APT Attack Scenarios Based on Intrusion Kill Chain and Fuzzy Clustering
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ru Zhang
2017-01-01
Full Text Available The APT attack on the Internet is becoming more serious, and most of intrusion detection systems can only generate alarms to some steps of APT attack and cannot identify the pattern of the APT attack. To detect APT attack, many researchers established attack models and then correlated IDS logs with the attack models. However, the accuracy of detection deeply relied on the integrity of models. In this paper, we propose a new method to construct APT attack scenarios by mining IDS security logs. These APT attack scenarios can be further used for the APT detection. First, we classify all the attack events by purpose of phase of the intrusion kill chain. Then we add the attack event dimension to fuzzy clustering, correlate IDS alarm logs with fuzzy clustering, and generate the attack sequence set. Next, we delete the bug attack sequences to clean the set. Finally, we use the nonaftereffect property of probability transfer matrix to construct attack scenarios by mining the attack sequence set. Experiments show that the proposed method can construct the APT attack scenarios by mining IDS alarm logs, and the constructed scenarios match the actual situation so that they can be used for APT attack detection.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Coronel B, H.F.; Hernandez M, A.R.; Jimenez M, M.A. [Facultad de Fisica e Inteligencia Artificial, Universidad Veracruzana, A.P. 475, Xalapa, Veracruz (Mexico); Mora F, L.E. [CIMAT, A.P. 402, 36000 Guanajuato (Mexico)]. e-mail: hcoronel@uv.mx
2007-07-01
Empirical tests for pseudo random number generators based on the use of processes or physical models have been successfully used and are considered as complementary to theoretical tests of randomness. In this work a statistical methodology for evaluating the quality of pseudo random number generators is presented. The method is illustrated in the context of the so-called exponential decay process, using some pseudo random number generators commonly used in physics. (Author)
Designing Wood Supply Scenarios from Forest Inventories with Stratified Predictions
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Philipp Kilham
2018-02-01
Full Text Available Forest growth and wood supply projections are increasingly used to estimate the future availability of woody biomass and the correlated effects on forests and climate. This research parameterizes an inventory-based business-as-usual wood supply scenario, with a focus on southwest Germany and the period 2002–2012 with a stratified prediction. First, the Classification and Regression Trees algorithm groups the inventory plots into strata with corresponding harvest probabilities. Second, Random Forest algorithms generate individual harvest probabilities for the plots of each stratum. Third, the plots with the highest individual probabilities are selected as harvested until the harvest probability of the stratum is fulfilled. Fourth, the harvested volume of these plots is predicted with a linear regression model trained on harvested plots only. To illustrate the pros and cons of this method, it is compared to a direct harvested volume prediction with linear regression, and a combination of logistic regression and linear regression. Direct harvested volume regression predicts comparable volume figures, but generates these volumes in a way that differs from business-as-usual. The logistic model achieves higher overall classification accuracies, but results in underestimations or overestimations of harvest shares for several subsets of the data. The stratified prediction method balances this shortcoming, and can be of general use for forest growth and timber supply projections from large-scale forest inventories.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Roldan A, M.C.; Martinez F, M. [Centro de Investigacion en Energia, UNAM, A.P. 34, 62580 Temixco, Morelos (Mexico)]. e-mail: mcra@cie.unam.mx
2007-07-01
The AHP multi criteria method was applied (Analytic Hierarchy Process-Analytic process of Hierarchization) to evaluate the sustainability in the whole life cycle of the electricity generation technologies (hydroelectric, carboelectric, thermoelectric natural fuel oil, natural gas thermoelectric, geothermal, nucleo electric, wind electric, photo thermic and photovoltaic) with the purpose of offering an useful method in the taking of decisions to impel the sustainable development. Eight scenarios are analyzed. The results in most of the scenarios reflect the benefit of the renewable energy: the hydroelectric energy, photo thermic and wind driven its are those more sustainable. To reach the sustainable development in Mexico, the energy politicians should be more near to the use of the renewable energy. (Author)
Implementation of a RANLUX Based Pseudo-Random Number Generator in FPGA Using VHDL and Impulse C
Agnieszka Dąbrowska-Boruch; Grzegorz Gancarczyk; Kazimierz Wiatr
2014-01-01
Monte Carlo simulations are widely used e.g. in the field of physics and molecular modelling. The main role played in these is by the high performance random number generators, such as RANLUX or MERSSENE TWISTER. In this paper the authors introduce the world's first implementation of the RANLUX algorithm on an FPGA platform for high performance computing purposes. A significant speed-up of one generator instance over 60 times, compared with a graphic card based solution, can be noticed. Compa...
An overview of alternative fossil fuel price and carbon regulation scenarios
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark
2004-10-01
The benefits of the Department of Energy's research and development (R&D) efforts have historically been estimated under business-as-usual market and policy conditions. In recognition of the insurance value of R&D, however, the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) and the Office of Fossil Energy (FE) have been exploring options for evaluating the benefits of their R&D programs under an array of alternative futures. More specifically, an FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group (the Working Group) has proposed to EERE and FE staff the application of an initial set of three scenarios for use in the Working Group's upcoming analyses: (1) a Reference Case Scenario, (2) a High Fuel Price Scenario, which includes heightened natural gas and oil prices, and (3) a Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. The immediate goal is to use these scenarios to conduct a pilot analysis of the benefits of EERE and FE R&D efforts. In this report, the two alternative scenarios being considered by EERE and FE staff--carbon cap-and-trade and high fuel prices--are compared to other scenarios used by energy analysts and utility planners. The report also briefly evaluates the past accuracy of fossil fuel price forecasts. We find that the natural gas prices through 2025 proposed in the FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group's High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable based on current natural gas prices and other externally generated gas price forecasts and scenarios. If anything, an even more extreme gas price scenario might be considered. The price escalation from 2025 to 2050 within the proposed High Fuel Price Scenario is harder to evaluate, primarily because few existing forecasts or scenarios extend beyond 2025, but, at first blush, it also appears reasonable. Similarly, we find that the oil prices originally proposed by the Working Group in the High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable, if not conservative, based on: (1) the current forward market for oil, (2
Why natural disaster planning scenarios are often so disastrously wrong.
Verosub, K. L.
2017-12-01
Taken together the four hurricanes that impacted the United States in the summer of 2017 demonstrate the difficulties involved in trying to plan for any natural disaster, not simply a major hurricane. They also highlight the extraordinary degree to which small and/or random variations in initial conditions can have enormous consequences on the outcome of an event and on the ability of a society to respond to it. For example, if Harvey had been moving faster, it would have meant less rainfall and hence less flooding in the Houston area whereas a slight change in the path of Irma would have significantly affected which portions of the Florida peninsula would have experienced greater or lesser devastation. In the case of Marie, hurricane intensity and path as well as the terrain in Puerto Rico and the inherent state of its infrastructure greatly complicated relief and recovery efforts there. An additional factor that makes planning scenarios so difficult to develop is that major natural disasters can often be analyzed as a sequence of events. At each juncture in the sequence, the event might evolve along two or more very different pathways, which can lead to different outcomes. Sometimes, as with Nate, an event evolves more or less "as expected" and the planning scenario does what it was supposed to do, namely, help people respond to the event. But to a much greater extent than is usually recognized, small or random variations can drive an event off its expected trajectory and into a response realm that "no one could have foreseen." Even worse is when those small or random variations allow an event to bifurcate and follow two or more different pathways simultaneously, leading to a cascading disaster that totally overwhelms whatever planning and preparation has been put in place. Perhaps the main lessons to be learned from these storms is that planning for any disaster requires greater recognition of the importance of small or random factors and greater appreciation of
Polyethylene recycling: Waste policy scenario analysis for the EU-27.
Andreoni, Valeria; Saveyn, Hans G M; Eder, Peter
2015-08-01
This paper quantifies the main impacts that the adoption of the best recycling practices together with a reduction in the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the adoption of a kerbside collection system could have on the 27 Member States of the EU. The main consequences in terms of employment, waste management costs, emissions and energy use have been quantified for two scenarios of polyethylene (PE) waste production and recycling. That is to say, a "business as usual scenario", where the 2012 performances of PE waste production and recycling are extrapolated to 2020, is compared to a "best practice scenario", where the best available recycling practices are modelled together with the possible adoption of the amended Packaging and Packaging Waste Directive related to the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the implementation of a kerbside collection system. The main results show that socio-economic and environmental benefits can be generated across the EU by the implementation of the best practice scenario. In particular, estimations show a possible reduction of 4.4 million tonnes of non-recycled PE waste, together with a reduction of around €90 million in waste management costs in 2020 for the best practice scenario versus the business as usual scenario. An additional 35,622 jobs are also expected to be created. In environmental terms, the quantity of CO2 equivalent emissions could be reduced by around 1.46 million tonnes and the net energy requirements are expected to increase by 16.5 million GJ as a consequence of the reduction in the energy produced from waste. The main analysis provided in this paper, together with the data and the model presented, can be useful to identify the possible costs and benefits that the implementation of PE waste policies and Directives could generate for the EU. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Development of nuclear spent fuel Maritime transportation scenario
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yoo, Min; Kang, Hyun Gook
2014-01-01
Spent fuel transportation of South Korea is to be conducted through near sea because it is able to ship a large amount of the spent fuel far from the public comparing to overland transportation. The maritime transportation is expected to be increased and its risk has to be assessed. For the risk assessment, this study utilizes the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) method and the notions of the combined event. Risk assessment of maritime transportation of spent fuel is not well developed in comparison with overland transportation. For the assessment, first, the transportation scenario should be developed and categorized. Categories are assorted into the locations, release aspects and exposure aspects. This study deals with accident that happens on voyage and concentrated on ship-ship collision. The collision accident scenario is generated with event tree analysis. The scenario will be exploited for the maritime transportation risk model which includes consequence and accident probability
Development of nuclear spent fuel Maritime transportation scenario
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Yoo, Min; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
2014-08-15
Spent fuel transportation of South Korea is to be conducted through near sea because it is able to ship a large amount of the spent fuel far from the public comparing to overland transportation. The maritime transportation is expected to be increased and its risk has to be assessed. For the risk assessment, this study utilizes the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) method and the notions of the combined event. Risk assessment of maritime transportation of spent fuel is not well developed in comparison with overland transportation. For the assessment, first, the transportation scenario should be developed and categorized. Categories are assorted into the locations, release aspects and exposure aspects. This study deals with accident that happens on voyage and concentrated on ship-ship collision. The collision accident scenario is generated with event tree analysis. The scenario will be exploited for the maritime transportation risk model which includes consequence and accident probability.
GENERATION OF MULTI-LOD 3D CITY MODELS IN CITYGML WITH THE PROCEDURAL MODELLING ENGINE RANDOM3DCITY
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
F. Biljecki
2016-09-01
Full Text Available The production and dissemination of semantic 3D city models is rapidly increasing benefiting a growing number of use cases. However, their availability in multiple LODs and in the CityGML format is still problematic in practice. This hinders applications and experiments where multi-LOD datasets are required as input, for instance, to determine the performance of different LODs in a spatial analysis. An alternative approach to obtain 3D city models is to generate them with procedural modelling, which is – as we discuss in this paper – well suited as a method to source multi-LOD datasets useful for a number of applications. However, procedural modelling has not yet been employed for this purpose. Therefore, we have developed RANDOM3DCITY, an experimental procedural modelling engine for generating synthetic datasets of buildings and other urban features. The engine is designed to produce models in CityGML and does so in multiple LODs. Besides the generation of multiple geometric LODs, we implement the realisation of multiple levels of spatiosemantic coherence, geometric reference variants, and indoor representations. As a result of their permutations, each building can be generated in 392 different CityGML representations, an unprecedented number of modelling variants of the same feature. The datasets produced by RANDOM3DCITY are suited for several applications, as we show in this paper with documented uses. The developed engine is available under an open-source licence at Github at http://github.com/tudelft3d/Random3Dcity.
Certified randomness in quantum physics.
Acín, Antonio; Masanes, Lluis
2016-12-07
The concept of randomness plays an important part in many disciplines. On the one hand, the question of whether random processes exist is fundamental for our understanding of nature. On the other, randomness is a resource for cryptography, algorithms and simulations. Standard methods for generating randomness rely on assumptions about the devices that are often not valid in practice. However, quantum technologies enable new methods for generating certified randomness, based on the violation of Bell inequalities. These methods are referred to as device-independent because they do not rely on any modelling of the devices. Here we review efforts to design device-independent randomness generators and the associated challenges.
Making use of scenarios : supporting scenario use in product design
Anggreeni, Irene
2010-01-01
The discipline of Scenario-Based Product Design (SBPD) guides the use of scenarios in a product design process. As concrete narratives, scenarios could facilitate making explicit how users would use the designed product in their activities, allowing usability studies to be an integrated part of the
Emissions Scenarios and Fossil-fuel Peaking
Brecha, R.
2008-12-01
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios are based on detailed energy system models in which demographics, technology and economics are used to generate projections of future world energy consumption, and therefore, of greenhouse gas emissions. Built into the assumptions for these scenarios are estimates for ultimately recoverable resources of various fossil fuels. There is a growing chorus of critics who believe that the true extent of recoverable fossil resources is much smaller than the amounts taken as a baseline for the IPCC scenarios. In a climate optimist camp are those who contend that "peak oil" will lead to a switch to renewable energy sources, while others point out that high prices for oil caused by supply limitations could very well lead to a transition to liquid fuels that actually increase total carbon emissions. We examine a third scenario in which high energy prices, which are correlated with increasing infrastructure, exploration and development costs, conspire to limit the potential for making a switch to coal or natural gas for liquid fuels. In addition, the same increasing costs limit the potential for expansion of tar sand and shale oil recovery. In our qualitative model of the energy system, backed by data from short- and medium-term trends, we have a useful way to gain a sense of potential carbon emission bounds. A bound for 21st century emissions is investigated based on two assumptions: first, that extractable fossil-fuel resources follow the trends assumed by "peak oil" adherents, and second, that little is done in the way of climate mitigation policies. If resources, and perhaps more importantly, extraction rates, of fossil fuels are limited compared to assumptions in the emissions scenarios, a situation can arise in which emissions are supply-driven. However, we show that even in this "peak fossil-fuel" limit, carbon emissions are high enough to surpass 550 ppm or 2°C climate protection guardrails. Some
Dying scenarios improve recall as much as survival scenarios.
Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Kramer, Melanie E
2014-01-01
Merely contemplating one's death improves retention for entirely unrelated material learned subsequently. This "dying to remember" effect seems conceptually related to the survival processing effect, whereby processing items for their relevance to being stranded in the grasslands leads to recall superior to that of other deep processing control conditions. The present experiments directly compared survival processing scenarios with "death processing" scenarios. Results showed that when the survival and dying scenarios are closely matched on key dimensions, and possible congruency effects are controlled, the dying and survival scenarios produced equivalently high recall levels. We conclude that the available evidence (cf. Bell, Roer, & Buchner, 2013; Klein, 2012), while not definitive, is consistent with the possibility of overlapping mechanisms.
Randomly Generating Four Mixed Bell-Diagonal States with a Concurrences Sum to Unity
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Toh, S. P.; Zainuddin Hishamuddin; Foo Kim Eng
2012-01-01
A two-qubit system in quantum information theory is the simplest bipartite quantum system and its concurrence for pure and mixed states is well known. As a subset of two-qubit systems, Bell-diagonal states can be depicted by a very simple geometrical representation of a tetrahedron with sides of length 2√2. Based on this geometric representation, we propose a simple approach to randomly generate four mixed Bell decomposable states in which the sum of their concurrence is equal to one. (general)
On adiabatic perturbations in the ekpyrotic scenario
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Linde, A.; Mukhanov, V.; Vikman, A.
2010-01-01
In a recent paper, Khoury and Steinhardt proposed a way to generate adiabatic cosmological perturbations with a nearly flat spectrum in a contracting Universe. To produce these perturbations they used a regime in which the equation of state exponentially rapidly changed during a short time interval. Leaving aside the singularity problem and the difficult question about the possibility to transmit these perturbations from a contracting Universe to the expanding phase, we will show that the methods used in Khoury are inapplicable for the description of the cosmological evolution and of the process of generation of perturbations in this scenario
Zhang, Guo-Qiang; Tao, Shiqiang; Xing, Guangming; Mozes, Jeno; Zonjy, Bilal; Lhatoo, Samden D; Cui, Licong
2015-11-10
A unique study identifier serves as a key for linking research data about a study subject without revealing protected health information in the identifier. While sufficient for single-site and limited-scale studies, the use of common unique study identifiers has several drawbacks for large multicenter studies, where thousands of research participants may be recruited from multiple sites. An important property of study identifiers is error tolerance (or validatable), in that inadvertent editing mistakes during their transmission and use will most likely result in invalid study identifiers. This paper introduces a novel method called "Randomized N-gram Hashing (NHash)," for generating unique study identifiers in a distributed and validatable fashion, in multicenter research. NHash has a unique set of properties: (1) it is a pseudonym serving the purpose of linking research data about a study participant for research purposes; (2) it can be generated automatically in a completely distributed fashion with virtually no risk for identifier collision; (3) it incorporates a set of cryptographic hash functions based on N-grams, with a combination of additional encryption techniques such as a shift cipher; (d) it is validatable (error tolerant) in the sense that inadvertent edit errors will mostly result in invalid identifiers. NHash consists of 2 phases. First, an intermediate string using randomized N-gram hashing is generated. This string consists of a collection of N-gram hashes f1, f2, ..., fk. The input for each function fi has 3 components: a random number r, an integer n, and input data m. The result, fi(r, n, m), is an n-gram of m with a starting position s, which is computed as (r mod |m|), where |m| represents the length of m. The output for Step 1 is the concatenation of the sequence f1(r1, n1, m1), f2(r2, n2, m2), ..., fk(rk, nk, mk). In the second phase, the intermediate string generated in Phase 1 is encrypted using techniques such as shift cipher. The result
Xu, Peng; Koloutsou-Vakakis, Sotiria; Rood, Mark J; Luan, Shengji
2017-12-31
China's rapid urbanization, large population, and increasing consumption of calorie-and meat-intensive diets, have resulted in China becoming the world's largest source of ammonia (NH 3 ) emissions from livestock production. This is the first study to use provincial, condition-specific emission factors based on most recently available studies on Chinese manure management and environmental conditions. The estimated NH 3 emission temporal trends and spatial patterns are interpreted in relation to government policies affecting livestock production. Scenario analysis is used to project emissions and estimate mitigation potential of NH 3 emissions, to year 2030. We produce a 1km×1km gridded NH 3 emission inventory for 2008 based on county-level activity data, which can help identify locations of highest NH 3 emissions. The total NH 3 emissions from manure generated by livestock production in 2008 were 7.3TgNH 3 ·yr -1 (interquartile range from 6.1 to 8.6TgNH 3 ·yr -1 ), and the major sources were poultry (29.9%), pigs (28.4%), other cattle (27.9%), and dairy cattle (7.0%), while sheep and goats (3.6%), donkeys (1.3%), horses (1.2%), and mules (0.7%) had smaller contributions. From 1978 to 2008, annual NH 3 emissions fluctuated with two peaks (1996 and 2006), and total emissions increased from 2.2 to 7.3Tg·yr -1 increasing on average 4.4%·yr -1 . Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, NH 3 emissions in 2030 are expected to be 13.9TgNH 3 ·yr -1 (11.5-16.3TgNH 3 ·yr -1 ). Under mitigation scenarios, the projected emissions could be reduced by 18.9-37.3% compared to 2030 BAU emissions. This study improves our understanding of NH 3 emissions from livestock production, which is needed to guide stakeholders and policymakers to make well informed mitigation decisions for NH 3 emissions from livestock production at the country and regional levels. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Super-heavy dark matter – Towards predictive scenarios from inflation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kannike, Kristjan [National Institute of Chemical Physics and Biophysics, Rävala 10, 10143 Tallinn (Estonia); Racioppi, Antonio, E-mail: antonio.racioppi@kbfi.ee [National Institute of Chemical Physics and Biophysics, Rävala 10, 10143 Tallinn (Estonia); Raidal, Martti [National Institute of Chemical Physics and Biophysics, Rävala 10, 10143 Tallinn (Estonia); Institute of Physics, University of Tartu, W. Ostwaldi 1, 50411 Tartu (Estonia)
2017-05-15
A generic prediction of the Coleman–Weinberg inflation is the existence of a heavy particle sector whose interactions with the inflaton, the lightest state in this sector, generate the inflaton potential at loop level. For typical interactions the heavy sector may contain stable states whose relic abundance is generated at the end of inflation by the gravity alone. This general feature, and the absence of any particle physics signal of dark matter so far, motivates us to look for new directions in the dark sector physics, including scenarios in which dark matter is super-heavy. In this article we study the possibility that the dark matter is even heavier than the inflaton, its existence follows from the inflaton dynamics, and its abundance today is naturally determined by the weakness of gravitational interaction. This implies that the super-heavy dark matter scenarios can be tested via the measurements of inflationary parameters and/or the CMB isocurvature perturbations and non-Gaussianities. We explicitly work out details of three Coleman–Weinberg inflation scenarios, study the systematics of super-heavy dark matter production in those cases, and compute which parts of the parameter spaces can be probed by the future CMB measurements.
Development and application of a methodology for identifying and characterising scenarios
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Billington, D.; Bailey, L.
1998-01-01
This report forms part of a suite of documents describing the Nirex model development programme. The programme is designed to provide a clear audit trail from the identification of significant features, events and processes (FEPs) to the models and modelling processes employed within a detailed performance assessment. A scenario approach to performance assessment has been adopted. It is proposed that potential evolutions of a deep geological radioactive waste repository can be represented by a base scenario and a number of variant scenarios. It is intended that assessment of the base, scenario would form the core of any future performance assessment. The base scenario is chosen to be broad-ranging and to represent the natural evolution of the repository system and its surrounding environment. The base scenario is defined to include all those FEPs which are certain to occur and those which are judged likely to occur for a significant period of the assessment timescale. Variant scenarios are defined by FEPs which represent a significant perturbation to the natural system evolution, for example the occurrence of a large seismic event. A variant scenario defined by a single initiating FEP is characterised by a sequence of events. This is represented as a 'timeline' which forms the basis for modelling that scenario. To generate a variant scenario defined by two initiating FEPs, a methodology is presented for combining the timelines for the two underlying 'single-FEP' variants. The resulting series of event sequences can be generated automatically. These sequences are then reviewed, in order to reduce the number of timelines requiring detailed consideration. This is achieved in two ways: by aggregating sequences which have similar consequence in terms of safety performance; and by combining successive intervals along a timeline where appropriate. In the context of a performance assessment, the aim is to determine the conditional risk and appropriate weight for each
Thermodynamics and process analysis for future economic scenarios
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ayres, R.U.
1995-01-01
Economists are increasingly interested in forecasting future costs and benefits of policies for dealing with materials/energy fluxes, polluting emissions and environmental impacts on various scales, from sectoral to global. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are currently popular because they project demand and industrial structure into the future, along an equilibrium path. But they are applicable only to the extent that structural changes occur in or near equilibrium, independent of radical technological (or social) change. The alternative tool for analyzing economic implications of scenario assumptions is to use Leontief-type Input-Output (I-O) models. I-O models are unable to endogenize structural shifts (changing I-O coefficients). However, this can be a virtue when considering radical rather than incremental shifts. Postulated I-O tables can be used independently to check the internal consistency of scenarios. Or I-O models can be used to generate scenarios by linking them to econometric 'macro-drivers' (which can, in principle, be CGE models). Explicit process analysis can be integrated, in principle, with I-O models. This hybrid scheme provides a natural means of satisfying physical constraints, especially the first and second laws of thermodynamics. This is important, to avoid constructing scenarios based on physically impossible processes. Process analysis is really the only available tool for constructing physically plausible alternative future I-O tables, and generating materials/energy and waste emissions coefficients. Explicit process analysis also helps avoid several problems characteristic of 'pure' CGE or I-O models, viz. (1) aggregation errors (2) inability to handle arbitrary combinations of co-product and co-input relationships and (3) inability to reflect certain non-linearities such as internal feedback loops. 4 figs., 2 tabs., 38 refs
MODIFIED AES WITH RANDOM S BOX GENERATION TO OVERCOME THE SIDE CHANNEL ASSAULTS USING CLOUD
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Navaneetha Krishnan
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Development of any communication system with secure and complex cryptographic algorithms highly depends on concepts of data security which is crucial in the current technological world. The security and complexity of the cryptography algorithms need to get increased by randomization of secret keys. To overcome the issues associated to data security and for improvising it during encryption and decryption process over the encrypting device, a novel Secure Side Channel Assault Prevention (SSCAP approach has been projected which will eliminate outflow of side channel messages and also provides effective security over the encrypting device. An effective Enriched AES (E-AES encryption algorithm is proposed to reduce the side channel attack; the modified algorithm in this research shows its improvement in the Generation of Random Multiple S - Box (GRM S-Box which makes it hard to the attacks to break the text which is in encrypted form. Our novel SSCAP approach also improves the security over the original information; it widely minimizes the leakage of the side channel information. Attackers cannot easily get a clue about the proposed S-Box Generation technique. Our E-AES algorithm will be implemented in cloud environment thereby improving the cloud security. The proposed SSCAP approach is judged against the existing security based algorithms on the scale of encryption and decryption time, time taken for generating the key, and performance. The proposed work proves to outperform over all other methods used in the past.
Maglennon, Gareth A; Cook, Beth S; Deeney, Alannah S; Bossé, Janine T; Peters, Sarah E; Langford, Paul R; Maskell, Duncan J; Tucker, Alexander W; Wren, Brendan W; Rycroft, Andrew N
2013-12-21
Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae is the cause of enzootic pneumonia in pigs, a chronic respiratory disease associated with significant economic losses to swine producers worldwide. The molecular pathogenesis of infection is poorly understood due to the lack of genetic tools to allow manipulation of the organism and more generally for the Mycoplasma genus. The objective of this study was to develop a system for generating random transposon insertion mutants in M. hyopneumoniae that could prove a powerful tool in enabling the pathogenesis of infection to be unraveled. A novel delivery vector was constructed containing a hyperactive C9 mutant of the Himar1 transposase along with a mini transposon containing the tetracycline resistance cassette, tetM. M. hyopneumoniae strain 232 was electroporated with the construct and tetM-expressing transformants selected on agar containing tetracycline. Individual transformants contained single transposon insertions that were stable upon serial passages in broth medium. The insertion sites of 44 individual transformants were determined and confirmed disruption of several M. hyopneumoniae genes. A large pool of over 10 000 mutants was generated that should allow saturation of the M. hyopneumoniae strain 232 genome. This is the first time that transposon mutagenesis has been demonstrated in this important pathogen and could be generally applied for other Mycoplasma species that are intractable to genetic manipulation. The ability to generate random mutant libraries is a powerful tool in the further study of the pathogenesis of this important swine pathogen.
Schreuders, ZC; Shaw, T; Shan-A-Khuda, M; Ravichandran, G; Keighley, J; Ordean, M
2017-01-01
Computer security students benefit from hands-on experience applying security tools and techniques to attack and defend vulnerable systems. Virtual machines (VMs) provide an effective way of sharing targets for hacking. However, developing these hacking challenges is time consuming, and once created, essentially static. That is, once the challenge has been "solved" there is no remaining challenge for the student, and if the challenge is created for a competition or assessment, the challenge c...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
De Jong, A.; Roodenburg, H.
1992-01-01
As an introduction to this special issue 'Worlds of difference: Scenarios's for the economy, energy and the environment 1990-2015', an outline is given of the future of the world and the Netherlands, based on four scenarios. These scenarios are published in 'Scanning the future' in May 1992 by the CPB, the Dutch Central Planning Bureau. The Global Shift (GS) scenario is characterized by a very dynamic technological development, the free market perspective, strong economic growth in the Asian economies, and a relative economic regression in Western Europe. In the European Renaissance (ER) scenario the technological development is less dynamic and more gradual than in the GS scenario. The Balanced Growth (BG) scenario is dominated by a sustainable economic development and a strong technological dynamic development. The Global Crisis (GC) scenario shows a downward spiral in many areas, stagnating developments and fragile economies as results of the trends in the eighties. The first three scenarios are elaborated for the Netherlands. Also attention is paid to the aims and meaning of long-term scenarios. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 3 refs
Scenarios for the development of the electricity economy in Continental Europe
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gutschi, Christoph; Stigler, Heinz; Jagl, Alexander; Nischler, Gernot; Huber, Christoph; Bachhiesl, Udo
2010-09-15
ATLANTIS is a multi purpose scenario model for the investigation of effects in the electricity system of continental Europe. The model consists of a physical part for the simulation of power generation and load flow as well as an economic part for the investigation of power markets and the business development of generation and supply companies.
Scenario Development for Trgovska Gora Shallow Land Facility
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Skanata, D.; Medakovic, S.; Lokner, V.; Levanat, I.
2002-01-01
Safety assessments, either preliminary or final, consist of a qualitative and a quantitative part. The qualitative part of the assessment implies a selection of relevant scenarios to be analyzed, while the quantitative part of the assessment consists of their mathematical modeling. This work is dealing with the qualitative part of safety assessment concerning a specific radioactive waste disposal system, i.e., the shallow land facility situated on the macrolocation Trgovska gora. This article has as its purpose a brief presentation of the ISAM methodology application results (Improvement of Safety Assessment Methodologies for Near Surface Radioactive Waste Facilities;), a methodology developed within the framework of a project of the same name, organized by the IAEA. The above mentioned methodology is based on the development of the so-called FEP list (Features, Events, Process), on selection procedure of the FEP list, specifically regarding particular criteria defined in advance, and on application of systematic methods of selecting relevant scenarios (in this case the matrix of interactions method has been applied). The main aim and purpose of a methodology based on the analysis of FEPs (identification, classification, selection, construction of the matrix of interactions) consists of observing and documenting all the features, events and processes due to be taken into consideration while assessing safety of a particular radioactive waste disposal system. In this connection, by radioactive waste disposal system we mean a system consisting of radioactive waste and engineer features (barriers), geological environment within which the disposal site is located, surface-environment (soil, sediments, vegetation, etc.) and human population near the disposal site. The final step of the application of this methodology consists of generating the scenario using the matrix of interactions. So, for shallow land facility situated on the macrolocation Trgovska gora, applying
Application of random number generators in genetic algorithms to improve rainfall-runoff modelling
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Chlumecký, M.; Buchtele, Josef; Richta, K.
2017-01-01
Roč. 553, October (2017), s. 350-355 ISSN 0022-1694 Institutional support: RVO:67985874 Keywords : genetic algorithm * optimisation * rainfall-runoff modeling * random generator Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology OBOR OECD: Hydrology Impact factor: 3.483, year: 2016 https://ac.els-cdn.com/S0022169417305516/1-s2.0-S0022169417305516-main.pdf?_tid=fa1bad8a-bd6a-11e7-8567-00000aab0f27&acdnat=1509365462_a1335d3d997e9eab19e23b1eee977705
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ford, Andrew
2008-01-01
This paper describes a computer simulation analysis of carbon dioxide emissions in the electric power system in the western United States. Legislation at both the state and federal level would impose a price on emissions via cap-and-trade in allowances for carbon dioxide emissions. The simulation scenarios for the western system indicate that dramatic reductions in emissions are possible with generating technologies that exist today. Wind and biomass generators play a key role even with conservative assumptions about their future costs. In contrast, generation from advanced technologies provide only a minor contribution by the year 2025. These scenarios provide support to those who argue that the US should move expeditiously to put a price on carbon dixoide emissions
Using energy scenarios to explore alternative energy pathways in California
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ghanadan, Rebecca; Koomey, J.G.
2005-01-01
This paper develops and analyzes four energy scenarios for California that are both exploratory and quantitative. The business-as-usual scenario represents a pathway guided by outcomes and expectations emerging from California's energy crisis. Three alternative scenarios represent contexts where clean energy plays a greater role in California's energy system: Split Public is driven by local and individual activities; Golden State gives importance to integrated state planning; Patriotic Energy represents a national drive to increase energy independence. Future energy consumption, composition of electricity generation, energy diversity, and greenhouse gas emissions are analyzed for each scenario through 2035. Energy savings, renewable energy, and transportation activities are identified as promising opportunities for achieving alternative energy pathways in California. A combined approach that brings together individual and community activities with state and national policies leads to the largest energy savings, increases in energy diversity, and reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Critical challenges in California's energy pathway over the next decades identified by the scenario analysis include dominance of the transportation sector, dependence on fossil fuels, emissions of greenhouse gases, accounting for electricity imports, and diversity of the electricity sector. The paper concludes with a set of policy lessons revealed from the California energy scenarios
Collados-Lara, Antonio-Juan; Pulido-Velazquez, David; Pardo-Iguzquiza, Eulogio
2017-04-01
Assessing impacts of potential future climate change scenarios in precipitation and temperature is essential to design adaptive strategies in water resources systems. The objective of this work is to analyze the possibilities of different statistical downscaling methods to generate future potential scenarios in an Alpine Catchment from historical data and the available climate models simulations performed in the frame of the CORDEX EU project. The initial information employed to define these downscaling approaches are the historical climatic data (taken from the Spain02 project for the period 1971-2000 with a spatial resolution of 12.5 Km) and the future series provided by climatic models in the horizon period 2071-2100 . We have used information coming from nine climate model simulations (obtained from five different Regional climate models (RCM) nested to four different Global Climate Models (GCM)) from the European CORDEX project. In our application we have focused on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 emissions scenario, which is the most unfavorable scenario considered in the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For each RCM we have generated future climate series for the period 2071-2100 by applying two different approaches, bias correction and delta change, and five different transformation techniques (first moment correction, first and second moment correction, regression functions, quantile mapping using distribution derived transformation and quantile mapping using empirical quantiles) for both of them. Ensembles of the obtained series were proposed to obtain more representative potential future climate scenarios to be employed to study potential impacts. In this work we propose a non-equifeaseble combination of the future series giving more weight to those coming from models (delta change approaches) or combination of models and techniques that provides better approximation to the basic
The definition and treatment of scenarios in a probabilistic systems assessment
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Andres, T.H.; Goodwin, B.W
1998-03-01
Concepts for the disposal of nuclear waste generally involve the use of multiple barriers, both man-made and natural, to isolate the waste from man's environment for very long periods of time. To assess the safety of these concepts, postclosure safety assessments are conducted to study the types, ranges and probabilities of potential impacts caused by wastes penetrating these barriers. Within the Canadian context, postclosure safety assessments must estimate radiological risk for comparison with regulatory criteria. The definition of radiological risk introduces a requirement to identify and then evaluate scenarios that describe quantitatively the possible behaviour of a disposal system and its surroundings for at least 10{sup 4} years. This report examines the connection between the identification and evaluation of scenarios. It shows how a large collection of factors can be combined to form simple scenarios, and how a large number of simple scenarios can be grouped into a manageably small number of compound scenarios. The compound scenarios, notably the 'central' scenario, can be evaluated using a probabilistic systems assessment code such as SYVAC3 (SYstems Variability Analysis Code, generation 3) to estimate the radiological risk and other environmental impacts. Examples are taken from a long-term performance assessment study to demonstrate a pragmatic application of the procedure. (author)
The definition and treatment of scenarios in a probabilistic systems assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Andres, T.H.; Goodwin, B.W.
1998-03-01
Concepts for the disposal of nuclear waste generally involve the use of multiple barriers, both man-made and natural, to isolate the waste from man's environment for very long periods of time. To assess the safety of these concepts, postclosure safety assessments are conducted to study the types, ranges and probabilities of potential impacts caused by wastes penetrating these barriers. Within the Canadian context, postclosure safety assessments must estimate radiological risk for comparison with regulatory criteria. The definition of radiological risk introduces a requirement to identify and then evaluate scenarios that describe quantitatively the possible behaviour of a disposal system and its surroundings for at least 10 4 years. This report examines the connection between the identification and evaluation of scenarios. It shows how a large collection of factors can be combined to form simple scenarios, and how a large number of simple scenarios can be grouped into a manageably small number of compound scenarios. The compound scenarios, notably the 'central' scenario, can be evaluated using a probabilistic systems assessment code such as SYVAC3 (SYstems Variability Analysis Code, generation 3) to estimate the radiological risk and other environmental impacts. Examples are taken from a long-term performance assessment study to demonstrate a pragmatic application of the procedure. (author)
Simulation of regional day-ahead PV power forecast scenarios
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nuno, Edgar; Koivisto, Matti Juhani; Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio
2017-01-01
Uncertainty associated with Photovoltaic (PV) generation can have a significant impact on real-time planning and operation of power systems. This obstacle is commonly handled using multiple forecast realizations, obtained using for example forecast ensembles and/or probabilistic forecasts, often...... at the expense of a high computational burden. Alternatively, some power system applications may require realistic forecasts rather than actual estimates; able to capture the uncertainty of weatherdriven generation. To this end, we propose a novel methodology to generate day-ahead forecast scenarios of regional...... PV production matching the spatio-temporal characteristics while preserving the statistical properties of actual records....
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sundbo, Jon
2016-01-01
This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...
Yang, Yu-Guang; Xu, Peng; Yang, Rui; Zhou, Yi-Hua; Shi, Wei-Min
2016-01-01
Quantum information and quantum computation have achieved a huge success during the last years. In this paper, we investigate the capability of quantum Hash function, which can be constructed by subtly modifying quantum walks, a famous quantum computation model. It is found that quantum Hash function can act as a hash function for the privacy amplification process of quantum key distribution systems with higher security. As a byproduct, quantum Hash function can also be used for pseudo-random number generation due to its inherent chaotic dynamics. Further we discuss the application of quantum Hash function to image encryption and propose a novel image encryption algorithm. Numerical simulations and performance comparisons show that quantum Hash function is eligible for privacy amplification in quantum key distribution, pseudo-random number generation and image encryption in terms of various hash tests and randomness tests. It extends the scope of application of quantum computation and quantum information.
Yang, Yu-Guang; Xu, Peng; Yang, Rui; Zhou, Yi-Hua; Shi, Wei-Min
2016-01-01
Quantum information and quantum computation have achieved a huge success during the last years. In this paper, we investigate the capability of quantum Hash function, which can be constructed by subtly modifying quantum walks, a famous quantum computation model. It is found that quantum Hash function can act as a hash function for the privacy amplification process of quantum key distribution systems with higher security. As a byproduct, quantum Hash function can also be used for pseudo-random number generation due to its inherent chaotic dynamics. Further we discuss the application of quantum Hash function to image encryption and propose a novel image encryption algorithm. Numerical simulations and performance comparisons show that quantum Hash function is eligible for privacy amplification in quantum key distribution, pseudo-random number generation and image encryption in terms of various hash tests and randomness tests. It extends the scope of application of quantum computation and quantum information. PMID:26823196
Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James
2018-05-01
Quantitative scenarios from energy-economic models inform decision-making about uncertain futures. Now, research shows the different ways these scenarios are subsequently used by users not involved in their initial development. In the absence of clear guidance from modellers, users may place too much or too little confidence in scenario assumptions and results.
Olivier JGJ; LAE
1995-01-01
An estimate was made of present global emissions from air traffic using statistical information on fuel consumption, aircraft types and applying emission factors for various compounds. To generate scenarios for future emissions from air traffic, assumptions were used regarding the development of the
Wood energy x 2 - Scenario for the development of wood energy use in Switzerland
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
2004-01-01
This study for the Swiss Agency for the Environment, Forests and Landscapes (SAEFL) and the Swiss wood-energy association (Holzenergie Schweiz) presents the results of a scenario-study that examined if, and under what conditions, doubling the use of wood energy in Switzerland could help reach carbon dioxide reduction targets. Two scenarios are presented that are based on high and low rates of growth for the number of automatic wood-chipping or pellets-fired installations. For both scenarios, figures are presented on the amount of wood used and the heating energy generated. The political and financial prerequisites for the scenarios are discussed and other boundary conditions are defined. The report draws conclusions from the study of the two scenarios and summarises the political action deemed necessary
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Matthews, J O; Hopcraft, K I; Jakeman, E [Applied Mathematics Division, School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, NG7 2RD (United Kingdom)
2003-11-21
Some properties of classical population processes that comprise births, deaths and multiple immigrations are investigated. The rates at which the immigrants arrive can be tailored to produce a population whose steady state fluctuations are described by a pre-selected distribution. Attention is focused on the class of distributions with a discrete stable law, which have power-law tails and whose moments and autocorrelation function do not exist. The separate problem of monitoring and characterizing the fluctuations is studied, analysing the statistics of individuals that leave the population. The fluctuations in the size of the population are transferred to the times between emigrants that form an intermittent time series of events. The emigrants are counted with a detector of finite dynamic range and response time. This is modelled through clipping the time series or saturating it at an arbitrary but finite level, whereupon its moments and correlation properties become finite. Distributions for the time to the first counted event and for the time between events exhibit power-law regimes that are characteristic of the fluctuations in population size. The processes provide analytical models with which properties of complex discrete random phenomena can be explored, and in addition provide generic means by which random time series encompassing a wide range of intermittent and other discrete random behaviour may be generated.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Matthews, J O; Hopcraft, K I; Jakeman, E
2003-01-01
Some properties of classical population processes that comprise births, deaths and multiple immigrations are investigated. The rates at which the immigrants arrive can be tailored to produce a population whose steady state fluctuations are described by a pre-selected distribution. Attention is focused on the class of distributions with a discrete stable law, which have power-law tails and whose moments and autocorrelation function do not exist. The separate problem of monitoring and characterizing the fluctuations is studied, analysing the statistics of individuals that leave the population. The fluctuations in the size of the population are transferred to the times between emigrants that form an intermittent time series of events. The emigrants are counted with a detector of finite dynamic range and response time. This is modelled through clipping the time series or saturating it at an arbitrary but finite level, whereupon its moments and correlation properties become finite. Distributions for the time to the first counted event and for the time between events exhibit power-law regimes that are characteristic of the fluctuations in population size. The processes provide analytical models with which properties of complex discrete random phenomena can be explored, and in addition provide generic means by which random time series encompassing a wide range of intermittent and other discrete random behaviour may be generated
Millett, Stephen; Mahadevan, Kathya
Battelle is identifying the most likely markets and economic impacts of stationary polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) fuel cells in the range of 1-250 kW in the U.S. by the year 2015. For this task, Battelle is using the Interactive Future Simulations (IFS™), an analytical modeling and forecasting tool that uses expert judgment, trend analysis, and cross-impact analysis methods to generate most likely future conditions for PEM fuel cell applications, market acceptance, commercial viability, and economic impacts. The cross-impact model contains 28 descriptors including commercial and technological advances in both polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) fuel cells and fossil fuel technologies, sources of hydrogen, investments, public policy, environmental regulation, value to consumers, commercialization leadership, modes of generation, and the reliability and prices of grid electricity. One likely scenario to the year 2015 is that the PEM fuel cells will be limited to commercial and industrial customers in the range of 50-200 kW with a market size less than US$ 5 billion a year.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Escalier des Orres, P.; Devillers, C.; Cernes, A.
1990-01-01
The selection and qualification procedure of a site for radioactive wastes disposal in a deep geologic formation, has begun in France in the early eighties. The public authorities, on ANDRA's proposal, has preselected in 1987 four sites, each of them corresponding to a type of geologic formations (granite, clay, salt and shale). Within two years, one of these sites will be chosen for the location of an underground laboratory. The safety analysis for the site's qualification uses evolution scenarios of the repository and its environment, chosen according to a deterministic method. With an appropriate detail level, are defined a reference scenario and scenario with random events. 4 refs., 1 tab [fr
Formal reconstruction of attack scenarios in mobile ad hoc and sensor networks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rekhis Slim
2011-01-01
Full Text Available Abstract Several techniques of theoretical digital investigation are presented in the literature but most of them are unsuitable to cope with attacks in wireless networks, especially in Mobile Ad hoc and Sensor Networks (MASNets. In this article, we propose a formal approach for digital investigation of security attacks in wireless networks. We provide a model for describing attack scenarios in a wireless environment, and system and network evidence generated consequently. The use of formal approaches is motivated by the need to avoid ad hoc generation of results that impedes the accuracy of analysis and integrity of investigation. We develop an inference system that integrates the two types of evidence, handles incompleteness and duplication of information in them, and allows possible and provable actions and attack scenarios to be generated. To illustrate the proposal, we consider a case study dealing with the investigation of a remote buffer overflow attack.