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Sample records for random probability sample

  1. HABITAT ASSESSMENT USING A RANDOM PROBABILITY BASED SAMPLING DESIGN: ESCAMBIA RIVER DELTA, FLORIDA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Lisa M., Darrin D. Dantin and Steve Jordan. In press. Habitat Assessment Using a Random Probability Based Sampling Design: Escambia River Delta, Florida (Abstract). To be presented at the SWS/GERS Fall Joint Society Meeting: Communication and Collaboration: Coastal Systems...

  2. On Randomness and Probability

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 1; Issue 2. On Randomness and Probability How to Mathematically Model Uncertain Events ... Author Affiliations. Rajeeva L Karandikar1. Statistics and Mathematics Unit, Indian Statistical Institute, 7 S J S Sansanwal Marg, New Delhi 110 016, India.

  3. On Randomness and Probability

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    casinos and gambling houses? How does one interpret a statement like "there is a 30 per cent chance of rain tonight" - a statement we often hear on the news? Such questions arise in the mind of every student when she/he is taught probability as part of mathematics. Many students who go on to study probability and ...

  4. Free probability and random matrices

    CERN Document Server

    Mingo, James A

    2017-01-01

    This volume opens the world of free probability to a wide variety of readers. From its roots in the theory of operator algebras, free probability has intertwined with non-crossing partitions, random matrices, applications in wireless communications, representation theory of large groups, quantum groups, the invariant subspace problem, large deviations, subfactors, and beyond. This book puts a special emphasis on the relation of free probability to random matrices, but also touches upon the operator algebraic, combinatorial, and analytic aspects of the theory. The book serves as a combination textbook/research monograph, with self-contained chapters, exercises scattered throughout the text, and coverage of important ongoing progress of the theory. It will appeal to graduate students and all mathematicians interested in random matrices and free probability from the point of view of operator algebras, combinatorics, analytic functions, or applications in engineering and statistical physics.

  5. Sampling, Probability Models and Statistical Reasoning -RE ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    eligible voters who support a particular political party. A random sample of size n is selected from this population and suppose k voters support this party. What is a good estimate of the required proportion? How do we obtain a probability model for the experi- ment just conducted? Let us examine the following simple ex-.

  6. Using Inverse Probability Bootstrap Sampling to Eliminate Sample Induced Bias in Model Based Analysis of Unequal Probability Samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nahorniak, Matthew; Larsen, David P; Volk, Carol; Jordan, Chris E

    2015-01-01

    In ecology, as in other research fields, efficient sampling for population estimation often drives sample designs toward unequal probability sampling, such as in stratified sampling. Design based statistical analysis tools are appropriate for seamless integration of sample design into the statistical analysis. However, it is also common and necessary, after a sampling design has been implemented, to use datasets to address questions that, in many cases, were not considered during the sampling design phase. Questions may arise requiring the use of model based statistical tools such as multiple regression, quantile regression, or regression tree analysis. However, such model based tools may require, for ensuring unbiased estimation, data from simple random samples, which can be problematic when analyzing data from unequal probability designs. Despite numerous method specific tools available to properly account for sampling design, too often in the analysis of ecological data, sample design is ignored and consequences are not properly considered. We demonstrate here that violation of this assumption can lead to biased parameter estimates in ecological research. In addition, to the set of tools available for researchers to properly account for sampling design in model based analysis, we introduce inverse probability bootstrapping (IPB). Inverse probability bootstrapping is an easily implemented method for obtaining equal probability re-samples from a probability sample, from which unbiased model based estimates can be made. We demonstrate the potential for bias in model-based analyses that ignore sample inclusion probabilities, and the effectiveness of IPB sampling in eliminating this bias, using both simulated and actual ecological data. For illustration, we considered three model based analysis tools--linear regression, quantile regression, and boosted regression tree analysis. In all models, using both simulated and actual ecological data, we found inferences to be

  7. Probability Distributions for Random Quantum Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, Kevin

    Motivated by uncertainty quantification and inference of quantum information systems, in this work we draw connections between the notions of random quantum states and operations in quantum information with probability distributions commonly encountered in the field of orientation statistics. This approach identifies natural sample spaces and probability distributions upon these spaces that can be used in the analysis, simulation, and inference of quantum information systems. The theory of exponential families on Stiefel manifolds provides the appropriate generalization to the classical case. Furthermore, this viewpoint motivates a number of additional questions into the convex geometry of quantum operations relative to both the differential geometry of Stiefel manifolds as well as the information geometry of exponential families defined upon them. In particular, we draw on results from convex geometry to characterize which quantum operations can be represented as the average of a random quantum operation. This project was supported by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity via Department of Interior National Business Center Contract Number 2012-12050800010.

  8. Probability of Failure in Random Vibration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    1988-01-01

    Close approximations to the first-passage probability of failure in random vibration can be obtained by integral equation methods. A simple relation exists between the first-passage probability density function and the distribution function for the time interval spent below a barrier before out...

  9. Sampling, Probability Models and Statistical Reasoning Statistical ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 1; Issue 5. Sampling, Probability Models and Statistical Reasoning Statistical Inference. Mohan Delampady V R Padmawar. General Article Volume 1 Issue 5 May 1996 pp 49-58 ...

  10. Fundamentals of applied probability and random processes

    CERN Document Server

    Ibe, Oliver

    2005-01-01

    This book is based on the premise that engineers use probability as a modeling tool, and that probability can be applied to the solution of engineering problems. Engineers and students studying probability and random processes also need to analyze data, and thus need some knowledge of statistics. This book is designed to provide students with a thorough grounding in probability and stochastic processes, demonstrate their applicability to real-world problems, and introduce the basics of statistics. The book''s clear writing style and homework problems make it ideal for the classroom or for self-study.* Good and solid introduction to probability theory and stochastic processes * Logically organized; writing is presented in a clear manner * Choice of topics is comprehensive within the area of probability * Ample homework problems are organized into chapter sections

  11. Nonequilibrium random matrix theory: Transition probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedro, Francisco Gil; Westphal, Alexander

    2017-03-01

    In this paper we present an analytic method for calculating the transition probability between two random Gaussian matrices with given eigenvalue spectra in the context of Dyson Brownian motion. We show that in the Coulomb gas language, in large N limit, memory of the initial state is preserved in the form of a universal linear potential acting on the eigenvalues. We compute the likelihood of any given transition as a function of time, showing that as memory of the initial state is lost, transition probabilities converge to those of the static ensemble.

  12. Negative probability of random multiplier in turbulence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Xuan; Su, Weidong

    2017-11-01

    The random multiplicative process (RMP), which has been proposed for over 50 years, is a convenient phenomenological ansatz of turbulence cascade. In the RMP, the fluctuation in a large scale is statistically mapped to the one in a small scale by the linear action of an independent random multiplier (RM). Simple as it is, the RMP is powerful enough since all of the known scaling laws can be included in this model. So far as we know, however, a direct extraction for the probability density function (PDF) of RM has been absent yet. The reason is the deconvolution during the process is ill-posed. Nevertheless, with the progress in the studies of inverse problems, the situation can be changed. By using some new regularization techniques, for the first time we recover the PDFs of the RMs in some turbulent flows. All the consistent results from various methods point to an amazing observation-the PDFs can attain negative values in some intervals; and this can also be justified by some properties of infinitely divisible distributions. Despite the conceptual unconventionality, the present study illustrates the implications of negative probability in turbulence in several aspects, with emphasis on its role in describing the interaction between fluctuations at different scales. This work is supported by the NSFC (No. 11221062 and No. 11521091).

  13. Probability sampling in legal cases: Kansas cellphone users

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kadane, Joseph B.

    2012-10-01

    Probability sampling is a standard statistical technique. This article introduces the basic ideas of probability sampling, and shows in detail how probability sampling was used in a particular legal case.

  14. Probability, random processes, and ergodic properties

    CERN Document Server

    Gray, Robert M

    1988-01-01

    This book has been written for several reasons, not all of which are academic. This material was for many years the first half of a book in progress on information and ergodic theory. The intent was and is to provide a reasonably self-contained advanced treatment of measure theory, prob ability theory, and the theory of discrete time random processes with an emphasis on general alphabets and on ergodic and stationary properties of random processes that might be neither ergodic nor stationary. The intended audience was mathematically inc1ined engineering graduate students and visiting scholars who had not had formal courses in measure theoretic probability . Much of the material is familiar stuff for mathematicians, but many of the topics and results have not previously appeared in books. The original project grew too large and the first part contained much that would likely bore mathematicians and dis courage them from the second part. Hence I finally followed the suggestion to separate the material and split...

  15. GSAMPLE: Stata module to draw a random sample

    OpenAIRE

    Jann, Ben

    2006-01-01

    gsample draws a random sample from the data in memory. Simple random sampling (SRS) is supported, as well as unequal probability sampling (UPS), of which sampling with probabilities proportional to size (PPS) is a special case. Both methods, SRS and UPS/PPS, provide sampling with replacement and sampling without replacement. Furthermore, stratified sampling and cluster sampling is supported.

  16. k-Means: Random Sampling Procedure

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. k-Means: Random Sampling Procedure. Optimal 1-Mean is. Approximation of Centroid (Inaba et al). S = random sample of size O(1/ ); Centroid of S is a (1+ )-approx centroid of P with constant probability.

  17. Random phenomena fundamentals of probability and statistics for engineers

    CERN Document Server

    Ogunnaike, Babatunde A

    2009-01-01

    PreludeApproach PhilosophyFour Basic PrinciplesI FoundationsTwo Motivating ExamplesYield Improvement in a Chemical ProcessQuality Assurance in a Glass Sheet Manufacturing ProcessOutline of a Systematic ApproachRandom Phenomena, Variability, and UncertaintyTwo Extreme Idealizations of Natural PhenomenaRandom Mass PhenomenaIntroducing ProbabilityThe Probabilistic FrameworkII ProbabilityFundamentals of Probability TheoryBuilding BlocksOperationsProbabilityConditional ProbabilityIndependenceRandom Variables and DistributionsDistributionsMathematical ExpectationCharacterizing DistributionsSpecial Derived Probability FunctionsMultidimensional Random VariablesDistributions of Several Random VariablesDistributional Characteristics of Jointly Distributed Random VariablesRandom Variable TransformationsSingle Variable TransformationsBivariate TransformationsGeneral Multivariate TransformationsApplication Case Studies I: ProbabilityMendel and HeredityWorld War II Warship Tactical Response Under AttackIII DistributionsIde...

  18. Probability sampling of stony coral populations in the Florida Keys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Steven G; Swanson, Dione W; Chiappone, Mark; Miller, Steven L; Ault, Jerald S

    2011-12-01

    Principles of probability survey design were applied to guide large-scale sampling of populations of stony corals and associated benthic taxa in the Florida Keys coral reef ecosystem. The survey employed a two-stage stratified random sampling design that partitioned the 251-km(2) domain by reef habitat types, geographic regions, and management zones. Estimates of the coefficient of variation (ratio of standard error to the mean) for stony coral population density and abundance ranged from 7% to 12% for four of six principal species. These levels of survey precision are among the highest reported for comparable surveys of marine species. Relatively precise estimates were also obtained for octocoral density, sponge frequency of occurrence, and benthic cover of algae and invertebrates. Probabilistic survey design techniques provided a robust framework for estimating population-level metrics and optimizing sampling efficiency.

  19. Probability Sampling - A Guideline for Quantitative Health Care ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The sampling methods of probability, both simple and systematic were also defined and compared on their utility for sampling populations. The usefulness of sampling as applied in a quantitative survey study is illustrated by evaluating an article using the characteristics of comprehensiveness, probability of selection, and ...

  20. Hybrid computer technique yields random signal probability distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameron, W. D.

    1965-01-01

    Hybrid computer determines the probability distributions of instantaneous and peak amplitudes of random signals. This combined digital and analog computer system reduces the errors and delays of manual data analysis.

  1. Probability, random variables, and random processes theory and signal processing applications

    CERN Document Server

    Shynk, John J

    2012-01-01

    Probability, Random Variables, and Random Processes is a comprehensive textbook on probability theory for engineers that provides a more rigorous mathematical framework than is usually encountered in undergraduate courses. It is intended for first-year graduate students who have some familiarity with probability and random variables, though not necessarily of random processes and systems that operate on random signals. It is also appropriate for advanced undergraduate students who have a strong mathematical background. The book has the following features: Several app

  2. Estimating total suspended sediment yield with probability sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert B. Thomas

    1985-01-01

    The ""Selection At List Time"" (SALT) scheme controls sampling of concentration for estimating total suspended sediment yield. The probability of taking a sample is proportional to its estimated contribution to total suspended sediment discharge. This procedure gives unbiased estimates of total suspended sediment yield and the variance of the...

  3. Strategies for Obtaining Probability Samples of Homeless Youth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golinelli, Daniela; Tucker, Joan S.; Ryan, Gery W.; Wenzel, Suzanne L.

    2015-01-01

    Studies of homeless individuals typically sample subjects from few types of sites or regions within a metropolitan area. This article focuses on the biases that can result from such a practice. We obtained a probability sample of 419 homeless youth from 41 sites (shelters, drop-in centers, and streets) in four regions of Los Angeles County (LAC).…

  4. Public Attitudes toward Stuttering in Turkey: Probability versus Convenience Sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozdemir, R. Sertan; St. Louis, Kenneth O.; Topbas, Seyhun

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: A Turkish translation of the "Public Opinion Survey of Human Attributes-Stuttering" ("POSHA-S") was used to compare probability versus convenience sampling to measure public attitudes toward stuttering. Method: A convenience sample of adults in Eskisehir, Turkey was compared with two replicates of a school-based,…

  5. Distinguishing Two Probability Ensembles with One Sample from each Ensemble

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Antunes, L.; Buhrman, H.; Matos, A.; Souto, A.; Teixeira, A.

    2016-01-01

    We introduced a new method for distinguishing two probability ensembles called one from each method, in which the distinguisher receives as input two samples, one from each ensemble. We compare this new method with multi-sample from the same method already exiting in the literature and prove that

  6. Distinguishing two probability ensembles with one sample from each ensemble

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L.F. Antunes (Luis); H. Buhrman (Harry); A. Matos; A. Souto (Andre); A. Teixeira

    2016-01-01

    htmlabstractWe introduced a new method for distinguishing two probability ensembles called one from each method, in which the distinguisher receives as input two samples, one from each ensemble. We compare this new method with multi-sample from the same method already exiting in the literature

  7. Probability of stress-corrosion fracture under random loading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, J. N.

    1974-01-01

    Mathematical formulation is based on cumulative-damage hypothesis and experimentally-determined stress-corrosion characteristics. Under both stationary random loadings, mean value and variance of cumulative damage are obtained. Probability of stress-corrosion fracture is then evaluated, using principle of maximum entropy.

  8. Data-driven probability concentration and sampling on manifold

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soize, C., E-mail: christian.soize@univ-paris-est.fr [Université Paris-Est, Laboratoire Modélisation et Simulation Multi-Echelle, MSME UMR 8208 CNRS, 5 bd Descartes, 77454 Marne-La-Vallée Cedex 2 (France); Ghanem, R., E-mail: ghanem@usc.edu [University of Southern California, 210 KAP Hall, Los Angeles, CA 90089 (United States)

    2016-09-15

    A new methodology is proposed for generating realizations of a random vector with values in a finite-dimensional Euclidean space that are statistically consistent with a dataset of observations of this vector. The probability distribution of this random vector, while a priori not known, is presumed to be concentrated on an unknown subset of the Euclidean space. A random matrix is introduced whose columns are independent copies of the random vector and for which the number of columns is the number of data points in the dataset. The approach is based on the use of (i) the multidimensional kernel-density estimation method for estimating the probability distribution of the random matrix, (ii) a MCMC method for generating realizations for the random matrix, (iii) the diffusion-maps approach for discovering and characterizing the geometry and the structure of the dataset, and (iv) a reduced-order representation of the random matrix, which is constructed using the diffusion-maps vectors associated with the first eigenvalues of the transition matrix relative to the given dataset. The convergence aspects of the proposed methodology are analyzed and a numerical validation is explored through three applications of increasing complexity. The proposed method is found to be robust to noise levels and data complexity as well as to the intrinsic dimension of data and the size of experimental datasets. Both the methodology and the underlying mathematical framework presented in this paper contribute new capabilities and perspectives at the interface of uncertainty quantification, statistical data analysis, stochastic modeling and associated statistical inverse problems.

  9. Crossing probability for directed polymers in random media. II. Exact tail of the distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Luca, Andrea; Le Doussal, Pierre

    2016-03-01

    We study the probability p ≡ p(η)(t) that two directed polymers in a given random potential η and with fixed and nearby endpoints do not cross until time t. This probability is itself a random variable (over samples η), which, as we show, acquires a very broad probability distribution at large time. In particular, the moments of p are found to be dominated by atypical samples where p is of order unity. Building on a formula established by us in a previous work using nested Bethe ansatz and Macdonald process methods, we obtain analytically the leading large time behavior of all moments p(m) ≃ γ(m)/t. From this, we extract the exact tail ∼ρ(p)/t of the probability distribution of the noncrossing probability at large time. The exact formula is compared to numerical simulations, with excellent agreement.

  10. Non-equilibrium random matrix theory. Transition probabilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pedro, Francisco Gil [Univ. Autonoma de Madrid (Spain). Dept. de Fisica Teorica; Westphal, Alexander [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany). Gruppe Theorie

    2016-06-15

    In this letter we present an analytic method for calculating the transition probability between two random Gaussian matrices with given eigenvalue spectra in the context of Dyson Brownian motion. We show that in the Coulomb gas language, in large N limit, memory of the initial state is preserved in the form of a universal linear potential acting on the eigenvalues. We compute the likelihood of any given transition as a function of time, showing that as memory of the initial state is lost, transition probabilities converge to those of the static ensemble.

  11. Computer routines for probability distributions, random numbers, and related functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirby, W.

    1983-01-01

    Use of previously coded and tested subroutines simplifies and speeds up program development and testing. This report presents routines that can be used to calculate various probability distributions and other functions of importance in statistical hydrology. The routines are designed as general-purpose Fortran subroutines and functions to be called from user-written main progress. The probability distributions provided include the beta, chi-square, gamma, Gaussian (normal), Pearson Type III (tables and approximation), and Weibull. Also provided are the distributions of the Grubbs-Beck outlier test, Kolmogorov 's and Smirnov 's D, Student 's t, noncentral t (approximate), and Snedecor F. Other mathematical functions include the Bessel function, I sub o, gamma and log-gamma functions, error functions, and exponential integral. Auxiliary services include sorting and printer-plotting. Random number generators for uniform and normal numbers are provided and may be used with some of the above routines to generate numbers from other distributions. (USGS)

  12. Application of random match probability calculations to mixed STR profiles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bille, Todd; Bright, Jo-Anne; Buckleton, John

    2013-03-01

    Mixed DNA profiles are being encountered more frequently as laboratories analyze increasing amounts of touch evidence. If it is determined that an individual could be a possible contributor to the mixture, it is necessary to perform a statistical analysis to allow an assignment of weight to the evidence. Currently, the combined probability of inclusion (CPI) and the likelihood ratio (LR) are the most commonly used methods to perform the statistical analysis. A third method, random match probability (RMP), is available. This article compares the advantages and disadvantages of the CPI and LR methods to the RMP method. We demonstrate that although the LR method is still considered the most powerful of the binary methods, the RMP and LR methods make similar use of the observed data such as peak height, assumed number of contributors, and known contributors where the CPI calculation tends to waste information and be less informative. © 2013 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  13. Acceptance sampling using judgmental and randomly selected samples

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sego, Landon H.; Shulman, Stanley A.; Anderson, Kevin K.; Wilson, John E.; Pulsipher, Brent A.; Sieber, W. Karl

    2010-09-01

    We present a Bayesian model for acceptance sampling where the population consists of two groups, each with different levels of risk of containing unacceptable items. Expert opinion, or judgment, may be required to distinguish between the high and low-risk groups. Hence, high-risk items are likely to be identifed (and sampled) using expert judgment, while the remaining low-risk items are sampled randomly. We focus on the situation where all observed samples must be acceptable. Consequently, the objective of the statistical inference is to quantify the probability that a large percentage of the unsampled items in the population are also acceptable. We demonstrate that traditional (frequentist) acceptance sampling and simpler Bayesian formulations of the problem are essentially special cases of the proposed model. We explore the properties of the model in detail, and discuss the conditions necessary to ensure that required samples sizes are non-decreasing function of the population size. The method is applicable to a variety of acceptance sampling problems, and, in particular, to environmental sampling where the objective is to demonstrate the safety of reoccupying a remediated facility that has been contaminated with a lethal agent.

  14. Use of ELVIS II platform for random process modelling and analysis of its probability density function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maslennikova, Yu. S.; Nugmanov, I. S.

    2016-08-01

    The problem of probability density function estimation for a random process is one of the most common in practice. There are several methods to solve this problem. Presented laboratory work uses methods of the mathematical statistics to detect patterns in the realization of random process. On the basis of ergodic theory, we construct algorithm for estimating univariate probability density distribution function for a random process. Correlational analysis of realizations is applied to estimate the necessary size of the sample and the time of observation. Hypothesis testing for two probability distributions (normal and Cauchy) is used on the experimental data, using χ2 criterion. To facilitate understanding and clarity of the problem solved, we use ELVIS II platform and LabVIEW software package that allows us to make the necessary calculations, display results of the experiment and, most importantly, to control the experiment. At the same time students are introduced to a LabVIEW software package and its capabilities.

  15. Limit law for transition probabilities and moderate deviations for Sinai's random walk in random environment

    CERN Document Server

    Comets, F

    2003-01-01

    We consider a one-dimensional random walk in random environment in the Sinai's regime. Our main result is that logarithms of the transition probabilities, after a suitable rescaling, converge in distribution as time tends to infinity, to some functional of the Brownian motion. We compute the law of this functional when the initial and final points agree. Also, among other things, we estimate the probability of being at time~$t$ at distance at least $z$ from the initial position, when $z$ is larger than $\\ln^2 t$, but still of logarithmic order in time.

  16. Importance sampling for failure probabilities in computing and data transmission

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asmussen, Søren

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we study efficient simulation algorithms for estimating P(X›x), where X is the total time of a job with ideal time $T$ that needs to be restarted after a failure. The main tool is importance sampling, where a good importance distribution is identified via an asymptotic description...... of the conditional distribution of T given X›x. If T≡t is constant, the problem reduces to the efficient simulation of geometric sums, and a standard algorithm involving a Cramér-type root, γ(t), is available. However, we also discuss an algorithm that avoids finding the root. If T is random, particular attention...... the computational effort is taken into account. To resolve this problem, an alternative algorithm using two-sided Lundberg bounds is suggested....

  17. Performance of Random Effects Model Estimators under Complex Sampling Designs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Yue; Stokes, Lynne; Harris, Ian; Wang, Yan

    2011-01-01

    In this article, we consider estimation of parameters of random effects models from samples collected via complex multistage designs. Incorporation of sampling weights is one way to reduce estimation bias due to unequal probabilities of selection. Several weighting methods have been proposed in the literature for estimating the parameters of…

  18. Sample Selection in Randomized Experiments: A New Method Using Propensity Score Stratified Sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tipton, Elizabeth; Hedges, Larry; Vaden-Kiernan, Michael; Borman, Geoffrey; Sullivan, Kate; Caverly, Sarah

    2014-01-01

    Randomized experiments are often seen as the "gold standard" for causal research. Despite the fact that experiments use random assignment to treatment conditions, units are seldom selected into the experiment using probability sampling. Very little research on experimental design has focused on how to make generalizations to well-defined…

  19. Sample size and the probability of a successful trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chuang-Stein, Christy

    2006-01-01

    This paper describes the distinction between the concept of statistical power and the probability of getting a successful trial. While one can choose a very high statistical power to detect a certain treatment effect, the high statistical power does not necessarily translate to a high success probability if the treatment effect to detect is based on the perceived ability of the drug candidate. The crucial factor hinges on our knowledge of the drug's ability to deliver the effect used to power the study. The paper discusses a framework to calculate the 'average success probability' and demonstrates how uncertainty about the treatment effect could affect the average success probability for a confirmatory trial. It complements an earlier work by O'Hagan et al. (Pharmaceutical Statistics 2005; 4:187-201) published in this journal. Computer codes to calculate the average success probability are included.

  20. A spatially balanced design with probability function proportional to the within sample distance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benedetti, Roberto; Piersimoni, Federica

    2017-09-01

    The units observed in a biological, agricultural, and environmental survey are often randomly selected from a finite population whose main feature is to be geo-referenced thus its spatial distribution should be used as essential information in designing the sample. In particular our interest is focused on probability samples that are well spread over the population in every dimension which in recent literature are defined as spatially balanced samples. To approach the problem we used the within sample distance as the summary index of the spatial distribution of a random selection criterion. Moreover numerical comparisons are made between the relative efficiency, measured with respect to the simple random sampling, of the suggested design and some other classical solutions as the Generalized Random Tessellation Stratified (GRTS) design used by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and other balanced or spatially balanced selection procedures as the Spatially Correlated Poisson Sampling (SCPS), the balanced sampling (CUBE), and the Local Pivotal method (LPM). These experiments on real and simulated data show that the design based on the within sample distance selects samples with a better spatial balance thus gives estimates with a lower sampling error than those obtained by using the other methods. The suggested method is very flexible to the introduction of stratification and coordination of samples and, even if in its nature it is computationally intensive, it is shown to be a suitable solution even when dealing with high sampling rates and large population frames where the main problem arises from the size of the distance matrix. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  1. Secondary School Students' Reasoning about Conditional Probability, Samples, and Sampling Procedures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prodromou, Theodosia

    2016-01-01

    In the Australian mathematics curriculum, Year 12 students (aged 16-17) are asked to solve conditional probability problems that involve the representation of the problem situation with two-way tables or three-dimensional diagrams and consider sampling procedures that result in different correct answers. In a small exploratory study, we…

  2. Sampling informative/complex a priori probability distributions using Gibbs sampling assisted by sequential simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Thomas Mejer; Mosegaard, Klaus; Cordua, Knud Skou

    2010-01-01

    Markov chain Monte Carlo methods such as the Gibbs sampler and the Metropolis algorithm can be used to sample the solutions to non-linear inverse problems. In principle these methods allow incorporation of arbitrarily complex a priori information, but current methods allow only relatively simple...... this algorithm with the Metropolis algorithm to obtain an efficient method for sampling posterior probability densities for nonlinear inverse problems....

  3. For what applications can probability and non-probability sampling be used?

    Science.gov (United States)

    H. T. Schreuder; T. G. Gregoire; J. P. Weyer

    2001-01-01

    Almost any type of sample has some utility when estimating population quantities. The focus in this paper is to indicate what type or combination of types of sampling can be used in various situations ranging from a sample designed to establish cause-effect or legal challenge to one involving a simple subjective judgment. Several of these methods have little or no...

  4. [Selection of sentinel sites for death surveillance, using cluster or unequal probability sampling].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lian, Heng-li; Xu, Yong-yong; Guo, Ling-xia; Tan, Zhi-jun; Liu, Dan-hong; Rao, Ke-qin

    2010-04-01

    To compare the sampling errors from cluster or unequal probability sampling designs and to adopt the unequal probability sampling method to be used for death surveillance. Taking 107 areas from the county level in Shaanxi province as the sampling frame, a set of samples are drawn by equal probability cluster sampling and unequal probability designs methodologies. Sampling error and effect of each design are estimated according to their complex sample plans. Both the sampling errors depend on the sampling plan and the errors of equal probability in stratified cluster sampling appears to be less than simple cluster sampling. The design effects of unequal probability stratified cluster sampling, such as piPS design, are slightly lower than those of equal probability stratified cluster sampling, but the unequal probability stratified cluster sampling can cover a wider scope of monitoring population. Results from the analysis of sampling data can not be conducted without consideration of the sampling plan when the sampling frame is finite and a given sampling plan and parameters, such as sampling proportion and population weights, are assigned in advance. Unequal probability cluster sampling designs seems to be more appropriate in selecting the national death surveillance sites since more available monitoring data can be obtained and having more weight in estimating the mortality for the whole province or the municipality to be selected.

  5. Some Bounds on the Deviation Probability for Sums of Nonnegative Random Variables Using Upper Polynomials, Moment and Probability Generating Functions

    OpenAIRE

    From, Steven G.

    2010-01-01

    We present several new bounds for certain sums of deviation probabilities involving sums of nonnegative random variables. These are based upon upper bounds for the moment generating functions of the sums. We compare these new bounds to those of Maurer [2], Bernstein [4], Pinelis [16], and Bentkus [3]. We also briefly discuss the infinitely divisible distributions case.

  6. Probability on graphs random processes on graphs and lattices

    CERN Document Server

    Grimmett, Geoffrey

    2018-01-01

    This introduction to some of the principal models in the theory of disordered systems leads the reader through the basics, to the very edge of contemporary research, with the minimum of technical fuss. Topics covered include random walk, percolation, self-avoiding walk, interacting particle systems, uniform spanning tree, random graphs, as well as the Ising, Potts, and random-cluster models for ferromagnetism, and the Lorentz model for motion in a random medium. This new edition features accounts of major recent progress, including the exact value of the connective constant of the hexagonal lattice, and the critical point of the random-cluster model on the square lattice. The choice of topics is strongly motivated by modern applications, and focuses on areas that merit further research. Accessible to a wide audience of mathematicians and physicists, this book can be used as a graduate course text. Each chapter ends with a range of exercises.

  7. A lower bound on the probability that a binomial random variable is exceeding its mean

    OpenAIRE

    Pelekis, Christos; Ramon, Jan

    2016-01-01

    We provide a lower bound on the probability that a binomial random variable is exceeding its mean. Our proof employs estimates on the mean absolute deviation and the tail conditional expectation of binomial random variables.

  8. Probability Sampling - A Guideline for Quantitative Health Care ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Sampling has received varied definitions by major authors on social research methods. It has been defined as “the process of selecting a smaller group of participants to tell us essentially what a larger population might tell us if we asked every member of the larger population the same questions” (1). A more direct definition ...

  9. Digital simulation of two-dimensional random fields with arbitrary power spectra and non-Gaussian probability distribution functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yura, Harold; Hanson, Steen Grüner

    2012-01-01

    Methods for simulation of two-dimensional signals with arbitrary power spectral densities and signal amplitude probability density functions are disclosed. The method relies on initially transforming a white noise sample set of random Gaussian distributed numbers into a corresponding set with the......Methods for simulation of two-dimensional signals with arbitrary power spectral densities and signal amplitude probability density functions are disclosed. The method relies on initially transforming a white noise sample set of random Gaussian distributed numbers into a corresponding set...... with the desired spectral distribution, after which this colored Gaussian probability distribution is transformed via an inverse transform into the desired probability distribution. In most cases the method provides satisfactory results and can thus be considered an engineering approach. Several illustrative...

  10. Sampling Random Bioinformatics Puzzles using Adaptive Probability Distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Have, Christian Theil; Appel, Emil Vincent; Bork-Jensen, Jette

    2016-01-01

    We present a probabilistic logic program to generate an educational puzzle that introduces the basic principles of next generation sequencing, gene finding and the translation of genes to proteins following the central dogma in biology. In the puzzle, a secret "protein word" must be found by asse...

  11. Spatial Random Sampling: A Structure-Preserving Data Sketching Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmani, Mostafa; Atia, George K.

    2017-09-01

    Random column sampling is not guaranteed to yield data sketches that preserve the underlying structures of the data and may not sample sufficiently from less-populated data clusters. Also, adaptive sampling can often provide accurate low rank approximations, yet may fall short of producing descriptive data sketches, especially when the cluster centers are linearly dependent. Motivated by that, this paper introduces a novel randomized column sampling tool dubbed Spatial Random Sampling (SRS), in which data points are sampled based on their proximity to randomly sampled points on the unit sphere. The most compelling feature of SRS is that the corresponding probability of sampling from a given data cluster is proportional to the surface area the cluster occupies on the unit sphere, independently from the size of the cluster population. Although it is fully randomized, SRS is shown to provide descriptive and balanced data representations. The proposed idea addresses a pressing need in data science and holds potential to inspire many novel approaches for analysis of big data.

  12. Importance Sampling for Failure Probabilities in Computing and Data Transmission

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asmussen, Søren

    We study efficient simulation algorithms for estimating P(Χ > χ), where Χ is the total time of a job with ideal time T that needs to be restarted after a failure. The main tool is importance sampling where one tries to identify a good importance distribution via an asymptotic description of the c...... the computational effort is taken into account. To resolve this problem, an alternative algorithm using twosided Lundberg bounds is suggested....

  13. Estimating Route Choice Models from Stochastically Generated Choice Sets on Large-Scale Networks Correcting for Unequal Sampling Probability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vacca, Alessandro; Prato, Carlo Giacomo; Meloni, Italo

    2015-01-01

    is the dependency of the parameter estimates from the choice set generation technique. Bias introduced in model estimation has been corrected only for the random walk algorithm, which has problematic applicability to large-scale networks. This study proposes a correction term for the sampling probability of routes...

  14. Sampling large random knots in a confined space

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arsuaga, J [Department of Mathematics, San Francisco State University, 1600 Holloway Ave, San Francisco, CA 94132 (United States); Blackstone, T [Department of Computer Science, San Francisco State University, 1600 Holloway Ave., San Francisco, CA 94132 (United States); Diao, Y [Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC 28223 (United States); Hinson, K [Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC 28223 (United States); Karadayi, E [Department of Mathematics, University of South Florida, 4202 E Fowler Avenue, Tampa, FL 33620 (United States); Saito, M [Department of Mathematics, University of South Florida, 4202 E Fowler Avenue, Tampa, FL 33620 (United States)

    2007-09-28

    DNA knots formed under extreme conditions of condensation, as in bacteriophage P4, are difficult to analyze experimentally and theoretically. In this paper, we propose to use the uniform random polygon model as a supplementary method to the existing methods for generating random knots in confinement. The uniform random polygon model allows us to sample knots with large crossing numbers and also to generate large diagrammatically prime knot diagrams. We show numerically that uniform random polygons sample knots with large minimum crossing numbers and certain complicated knot invariants (as those observed experimentally). We do this in terms of the knot determinants or colorings. Our numerical results suggest that the average determinant of a uniform random polygon of n vertices grows faster than O(e{sup n{sup 2}}). We also investigate the complexity of prime knot diagrams. We show rigorously that the probability that a randomly selected 2D uniform random polygon of n vertices is almost diagrammatically prime goes to 1 as n goes to infinity. Furthermore, the average number of crossings in such a diagram is at the order of O(n{sup 2}). Therefore, the two-dimensional uniform random polygons offer an effective way in sampling large (prime) knots, which can be useful in various applications.

  15. K-Median: Random Sampling Procedure

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. K-Median: Random Sampling Procedure. Sample a set of 1/ + 1 points from P. Let Q = first 1/ points, p = last point. Let T = Avg. 1-Median cost of P, c=1-Median. Let B1 = B(c,T/ 2), B2 = B(p, T). Let P' = points in B1.

  16. From gap probabilities in random matrix theory to eigenvalue expansions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bothner, Thomas

    2016-02-01

    We present a method to derive asymptotics of eigenvalues for trace-class integral operators K :{L}2(J;{{d}}λ )\\circlearrowleft , acting on a single interval J\\subset {{R}}, which belongs to the ring of integrable operators (Its et al 1990 Int. J. Mod. Phys. B 4 1003-37 ). Our emphasis lies on the behavior of the spectrum \\{{λ }i(J)\\}{}i=0∞ of K as | J| \\to ∞ and i is fixed. We show that this behavior is intimately linked to the analysis of the Fredholm determinant {det}(I-γ K){| }{L2(J)} as | J| \\to ∞ and γ \\uparrow 1 in a Stokes type scaling regime. Concrete asymptotic formulæ are obtained for the eigenvalues of Airy and Bessel kernels in random matrix theory. Dedicated to Percy Deift and Craig Tracy on the occasion of their 70th birthdays.

  17. What Are Probability Surveys?

    Science.gov (United States)

    The National Aquatic Resource Surveys (NARS) use probability-survey designs to assess the condition of the nation’s waters. In probability surveys (also known as sample-surveys or statistical surveys), sampling sites are selected randomly.

  18. Discrete probability models and methods probability on graphs and trees, Markov chains and random fields, entropy and coding

    CERN Document Server

    Brémaud, Pierre

    2017-01-01

    The emphasis in this book is placed on general models (Markov chains, random fields, random graphs), universal methods (the probabilistic method, the coupling method, the Stein-Chen method, martingale methods, the method of types) and versatile tools (Chernoff's bound, Hoeffding's inequality, Holley's inequality) whose domain of application extends far beyond the present text. Although the examples treated in the book relate to the possible applications, in the communication and computing sciences, in operations research and in physics, this book is in the first instance concerned with theory. The level of the book is that of a beginning graduate course. It is self-contained, the prerequisites consisting merely of basic calculus (series) and basic linear algebra (matrices). The reader is not assumed to be trained in probability since the first chapters give in considerable detail the background necessary to understand the rest of the book. .

  19. University Students’ Conceptual Knowledge of Randomness and Probability in the Contexts of Evolution and Mathematics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiedler, Daniela; Tröbst, Steffen; Harms, Ute

    2017-01-01

    Students of all ages face severe conceptual difficulties regarding key aspects of evolution—the central, unifying, and overarching theme in biology. Aspects strongly related to abstract “threshold” concepts like randomness and probability appear to pose particular difficulties. A further problem is the lack of an appropriate instrument for assessing students’ conceptual knowledge of randomness and probability in the context of evolution. To address this problem, we have developed two instruments, Randomness and Probability Test in the Context of Evolution (RaProEvo) and Randomness and Probability Test in the Context of Mathematics (RaProMath), that include both multiple-choice and free-response items. The instruments were administered to 140 university students in Germany, then the Rasch partial-credit model was applied to assess them. The results indicate that the instruments generate reliable and valid inferences about students’ conceptual knowledge of randomness and probability in the two contexts (which are separable competencies). Furthermore, RaProEvo detected significant differences in knowledge of randomness and probability, as well as evolutionary theory, between biology majors and preservice biology teachers. PMID:28572180

  20. Predicting longitudinal trajectories of health probabilities with random-effects multinomial logit regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xian; Engel, Charles C

    2012-12-20

    Researchers often encounter longitudinal health data characterized with three or more ordinal or nominal categories. Random-effects multinomial logit models are generally applied to account for potential lack of independence inherent in such clustered data. When parameter estimates are used to describe longitudinal processes, however, random effects, both between and within individuals, need to be retransformed for correctly predicting outcome probabilities. This study attempts to go beyond existing work by developing a retransformation method that derives longitudinal growth trajectories of unbiased health probabilities. We estimated variances of the predicted probabilities by using the delta method. Additionally, we transformed the covariates' regression coefficients on the multinomial logit function, not substantively meaningful, to the conditional effects on the predicted probabilities. The empirical illustration uses the longitudinal data from the Asset and Health Dynamics among the Oldest Old. Our analysis compared three sets of the predicted probabilities of three health states at six time points, obtained from, respectively, the retransformation method, the best linear unbiased prediction, and the fixed-effects approach. The results demonstrate that neglect of retransforming random errors in the random-effects multinomial logit model results in severely biased longitudinal trajectories of health probabilities as well as overestimated effects of covariates on the probabilities. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  1. On the assessment of extremely low breakdown probabilities by an inverse sampling procedure [gaseous insulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thyregod, Poul; Vibholm, Svend

    1991-01-01

    the flashover probability function and the corresponding distribution of first breakdown voltages under the inverse sampling procedure, and show how this relation may be utilized to assess the single-shot flashover probability corresponding to the observed average first breakdown voltage. Since the procedure...

  2. Escape probability and mean residence time in random flows with unsteady drift

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brannan James R.

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate fluid transport in random velocity fields with unsteady drift. First, we propose to quantify fluid transport between flow regimes of different characteristic motion, by escape probability and mean residence time. We then develop numerical algorithms to solve for escape probability and mean residence time, which are described by backward Fokker-Planck type partial differential equations. A few computational issues are also discussed. Finally, we apply these ideas and numerical algorithms to a tidal flow model.

  3. Approximations to the Probability of Failure in Random Vibration by Integral Equation Methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    Close approximations to the first passage probability of failure in random vibration can be obtained by integral equation methods. A simple relation exists between the first passage probability density function and the distribution function for the time interval spent below a barrier before...... outcrossing. An integral equation for the probability density function of the time interval is formulated, and adequate approximations for the kernel are suggested. The kernel approximation results in approximate solutions for the probability density function of the time interval, and hence for the first...... passage probability density. The results of the theory agree well with simulation results for narrow banded processes dominated by a single frequency, as well as for bimodal processes with 2 dominating frequencies in the structural response....

  4. PREDICTING LONGITUDINAL TRAJECTORIES OF HEALTH PROBABILITIES WITH RANDOM-EFFECTS MULTINOMIAL LOGIT REGRESSION

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Xian; Engel, Charles C.

    2012-01-01

    Researchers often encounter longitudinal health data characterized with three or more ordinal or nominal categories. Random-effects multinomial logit models are generally applied to account for potential lack of independence inherent in such clustered data. When parameter estimates are used to describe longitudinal processes, however, random effects, both between and within individuals, need to be retransformed for correctly predicting outcome probabilities. This study attempts to go beyond e...

  5. Gambling problems in the family – A stratified probability sample study of prevalence and reported consequences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Øren Anita

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Prior studies on the impact of problem gambling in the family mainly include help-seeking populations with small numbers of participants. The objective of the present stratified probability sample study was to explore the epidemiology of problem gambling in the family in the general population. Methods Men and women 16–74 years-old randomly selected from the Norwegian national population database received an invitation to participate in this postal questionnaire study. The response rate was 36.1% (3,483/9,638. Given the lack of validated criteria, two survey questions ("Have you ever noticed that a close relative spent more and more money on gambling?" and "Have you ever experienced that a close relative lied to you about how much he/she gambles?" were extrapolated from the Lie/Bet Screen for pathological gambling. Respondents answering "yes" to both questions were defined as Concerned Significant Others (CSOs. Results Overall, 2.0% of the study population was defined as CSOs. Young age, female gender, and divorced marital status were factors positively associated with being a CSO. CSOs often reported to have experienced conflicts in the family related to gambling, worsening of the family's financial situation, and impaired mental and physical health. Conclusion Problematic gambling behaviour not only affects the gambling individual but also has a strong impact on the quality of life of family members.

  6. The probability of a random straight line in two and three dimensions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beckers, A.L.D.; Smeulders, A.W.M.

    1990-01-01

    Using properties of shift- and rotation-invariance probability density distributions are derived for random straight lines in normal representation. It is found that in two-dimensional space the distribution of normal coordinates (r, phi) is uniform: p(r, phi) = c, where c is a normalisation

  7. University Students' Conceptual Knowledge of Randomness and Probability in the Contexts of Evolution and Mathematics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiedler, Daniela; Tröbst, Steffen; Harms, Ute

    2017-01-01

    Students of all ages face severe conceptual difficulties regarding key aspects of evolution-- the central, unifying, and overarching theme in biology. Aspects strongly related to abstract "threshold" concepts like randomness and probability appear to pose particular difficulties. A further problem is the lack of an appropriate instrument…

  8. The random effects prep continues to mispredict the probability of replication

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Iverson, G.J.; Lee, M.D.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

    2010-01-01

    In their reply, Lecoutre and Killeen (2010) argue for a random effects version of prep, in which the observed effect from one experiment is used to predict the probability that an effect from a different but related experiment will have the same sign. They present a figure giving the impression that

  9. Eliciting and Developing Teachers' Conceptions of Random Processes in a Probability and Statistics Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Toni M.; Hjalmarson, Margret A.

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine prospective mathematics specialists' engagement in an instructional sequence designed to elicit and develop their understandings of random processes. The study was conducted with two different sections of a probability and statistics course for K-8 teachers. Thirty-two teachers participated. Video analyses…

  10. Sampling Polymorphs of Ionic Solids using Random Superlattices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevanović, Vladan

    2016-02-19

    Polymorphism offers rich and virtually unexplored space for discovering novel functional materials. To harness this potential approaches capable of both exploring the space of polymorphs and assessing their realizability are needed. One such approach devised for partially ionic solids is presented. The structure prediction part is carried out by performing local density functional theory relaxations on a large set of random supperlattices (RSLs) with atoms distributed randomly over different planes in a way that favors cation-anion coordination. Applying the RSL sampling on MgO, ZnO, and SnO_{2} reveals that the resulting probability of occurrence of a given structure offers a measure of its realizability explaining fully the experimentally observed, metastable polymorphs in these three systems.

  11. Problems in probability theory, mathematical statistics and theory of random functions

    CERN Document Server

    Sveshnikov, A A

    1979-01-01

    Problem solving is the main thrust of this excellent, well-organized workbook. Suitable for students at all levels in probability theory and statistics, the book presents over 1,000 problems and their solutions, illustrating fundamental theory and representative applications in the following fields: Random Events; Distribution Laws; Correlation Theory; Random Variables; Entropy & Information; Markov Processes; Systems of Random Variables; Limit Theorems; Data Processing; and more.The coverage of topics is both broad and deep, ranging from the most elementary combinatorial problems through lim

  12. Probability and Random Processes With Applications to Signal Processing and Communications

    CERN Document Server

    Miller, Scott

    2012-01-01

    Miller and Childers have focused on creating a clear presentation of foundational concepts with specific applications to signal processing and communications, clearly the two areas of most interest to students and instructors in this course. It is aimed at graduate students as well as practicing engineers, and includes unique chapters on narrowband random processes and simulation techniques. The appendices provide a refresher in such areas as linear algebra, set theory, random variables, and more. Probability and Random Processes also includes applications in digital communications, informati

  13. Sample Size and Probability Threshold Considerations with the Tailored Data Method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wyse, Adam E

    This article discusses sample size and probability threshold considerations in the use of the tailored data method with the Rasch model. In the tailored data method, one performs an initial Rasch analysis and then reanalyzes data after setting item responses to missing that are below a chosen probability threshold. A simple analytical formula is provided that can be used to check whether or not the application of the tailored data method with a chosen probability threshold will create situations in which the number of remaining item responses for the Rasch calibration will or will not meet minimum sample size requirements. The formula is illustrated using a real data example from a medical imaging licensure exam with several different probability thresholds. It is shown that as the probability threshold was increased more item responses were set to missing and the parameter standard errors and item difficulty estimates also tended to increase. It is suggested that some consideration should be given to the chosen probability threshold and how this interacts with potential examinee sample sizes and the accuracy of parameter estimates when calibrating data with the tailored data method.

  14. Computer simulation of random variables and vectors with arbitrary probability distribution laws

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogdan, V. M.

    1981-01-01

    Assume that there is given an arbitrary n-dimensional probability distribution F. A recursive construction is found for a sequence of functions x sub 1 = f sub 1 (U sub 1, ..., U sub n), ..., x sub n = f sub n (U sub 1, ..., U sub n) such that if U sub 1, ..., U sub n are independent random variables having uniform distribution over the open interval (0,1), then the joint distribution of the variables x sub 1, ..., x sub n coincides with the distribution F. Since uniform independent random variables can be well simulated by means of a computer, this result allows one to simulate arbitrary n-random variables if their joint probability distribution is known.

  15. Use of handheld computers with global positioning systems for probability sampling and data entry in household surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanden Eng, Jodi L; Wolkon, Adam; Frolov, Anatoly S; Terlouw, Dianne J; Eliades, M James; Morgah, Kodjo; Takpa, Vincent; Dare, Aboudou; Sodahlon, Yao K; Doumanou, Yao; Hawley, William A; Hightower, Allen W

    2007-08-01

    We introduce an innovative method that uses personal digital assistants (PDAs) equipped with global positioning system (GPS) units in household surveys to select a probability-based sample and perform PDA-based interviews. Our approach uses PDAs with GPS to rapidly map all households in selected areas, choose a random sample, and navigate back to the sampled households to conduct an interview. We present recent field experience in two large-scale nationally representative household surveys to assess insecticide-treated bed net coverage as part of malaria control efforts in Africa. The successful application of this method resulted in statistically valid samples; quality-controlled data entry; and rapid aggregation, analyses, and availability of preliminary results within days of completing the field work. We propose this method as an alternative to the Expanded Program on Immunization cluster sample method when a fast, statistically valid survey is required in an environment with little census information at the enumeration area level.

  16. Generation and Analysis of Constrained Random Sampling Patterns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pierzchlewski, Jacek; Arildsen, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    Random sampling is a technique for signal acquisition which is gaining popularity in practical signal processing systems. Nowadays, event-driven analog-to-digital converters make random sampling feasible in practical applications. A process of random sampling is defined by a sampling pattern, whi...

  17. Fortran code for generating random probability vectors, unitaries, and quantum states

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonas eMaziero

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The usefulness of generating random configurations is recognized in many areas of knowledge. Fortran was born for scientific computing and has been one of the main programming languages in this area since then. And several ongoing projects targeting towards its betterment indicate that it will keep this status in the decades to come. In this article, we describe Fortran codes produced, or organized, for the generation of the following random objects: numbers, probability vectors, unitary matrices, and quantum state vectors and density matrices. Some matrix functions are also included and may be of independent interest.

  18. A country-wide probability sample of public attitudes toward stuttering in Portugal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valente, Ana Rita S; St Louis, Kenneth O; Leahy, Margaret; Hall, Andreia; Jesus, Luis M T

    2017-06-01

    Negative public attitudes toward stuttering have been widely reported, although differences among countries and regions exist. Clear reasons for these differences remain obscure. Published research is unavailable on public attitudes toward stuttering in Portugal as well as a representative sample that explores stuttering attitudes in an entire country. This study sought to (a) determine the feasibility of a country-wide probability sampling scheme to measure public stuttering attitudes in Portugal using a standard instrument (the Public Opinion Survey of Human Attributes-Stuttering [POSHA-S]) and (b) identify demographic variables that predict Portuguese attitudes. The POSHA-S was translated to European Portuguese through a five-step process. Thereafter, a local administrative office-based, three-stage, cluster, probability sampling scheme was carried out to obtain 311 adult respondents who filled out the questionnaire. The Portuguese population held stuttering attitudes that were generally within the average range of those observed from numerous previous POSHA-S samples. Demographic variables that predicted more versus less positive stuttering attitudes were respondents' age, region of the country, years of school completed, working situation, and number of languages spoken. Non-predicting variables were respondents' sex, marital status, and parental status. A local administrative office-based, probability sampling scheme generated a respondent profile similar to census data and indicated that Portuguese attitudes are generally typical. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Convergence estimates in probability and in expectation for discrete least squares with noisy evaluations at random points

    KAUST Repository

    Migliorati, Giovanni

    2015-08-28

    We study the accuracy of the discrete least-squares approximation on a finite dimensional space of a real-valued target function from noisy pointwise evaluations at independent random points distributed according to a given sampling probability measure. The convergence estimates are given in mean-square sense with respect to the sampling measure. The noise may be correlated with the location of the evaluation and may have nonzero mean (offset). We consider both cases of bounded or square-integrable noise / offset. We prove conditions between the number of sampling points and the dimension of the underlying approximation space that ensure a stable and accurate approximation. Particular focus is on deriving estimates in probability within a given confidence level. We analyze how the best approximation error and the noise terms affect the convergence rate and the overall confidence level achieved by the convergence estimate. The proofs of our convergence estimates in probability use arguments from the theory of large deviations to bound the noise term. Finally we address the particular case of multivariate polynomial approximation spaces with any density in the beta family, including uniform and Chebyshev.

  20. Conflict-cost based random sampling design for parallel MRI with low rank constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Wan; Zhou, Yihang; Lyu, Jingyuan; Ying, Leslie

    2015-05-01

    In compressed sensing MRI, it is very important to design sampling pattern for random sampling. For example, SAKE (simultaneous auto-calibrating and k-space estimation) is a parallel MRI reconstruction method using random undersampling. It formulates image reconstruction as a structured low-rank matrix completion problem. Variable density (VD) Poisson discs are typically adopted for 2D random sampling. The basic concept of Poisson disc generation is to guarantee samples are neither too close to nor too far away from each other. However, it is difficult to meet such a condition especially in the high density region. Therefore the sampling becomes inefficient. In this paper, we present an improved random sampling pattern for SAKE reconstruction. The pattern is generated based on a conflict cost with a probability model. The conflict cost measures how many dense samples already assigned are around a target location, while the probability model adopts the generalized Gaussian distribution which includes uniform and Gaussian-like distributions as special cases. Our method preferentially assigns a sample to a k-space location with the least conflict cost on the circle of the highest probability. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed random pattern, we compare the performance of SAKEs using both VD Poisson discs and the proposed pattern. Experimental results for brain data show that the proposed pattern yields lower normalized mean square error (NMSE) than VD Poisson discs.

  1. On the probability of cost-effectiveness using data from randomized clinical trials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Willan Andrew R

    2001-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Acceptability curves have been proposed for quantifying the probability that a treatment under investigation in a clinical trial is cost-effective. Various definitions and estimation methods have been proposed. Loosely speaking, all the definitions, Bayesian or otherwise, relate to the probability that the treatment under consideration is cost-effective as a function of the value placed on a unit of effectiveness. These definitions are, in fact, expressions of the certainty with which the current evidence would lead us to believe that the treatment under consideration is cost-effective, and are dependent on the amount of evidence (i.e. sample size. Methods An alternative for quantifying the probability that the treatment under consideration is cost-effective, which is independent of sample size, is proposed. Results Non-parametric methods are given for point and interval estimation. In addition, these methods provide a non-parametric estimator and confidence interval for the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. An example is provided. Conclusions The proposed parameter for quantifying the probability that a new therapy is cost-effective is superior to the acceptability curve because it is not sample size dependent and because it can be interpreted as the proportion of patients who would benefit if given the new therapy. Non-parametric methods are used to estimate the parameter and its variance, providing the appropriate confidence intervals and test of hypothesis.

  2. On the Estimation of Detection Probabilities for Sampling Stream-Dwelling Fishes.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peterson, James T.

    1999-11-01

    To examine the adequacy of fish probability of detection estimates, I examined distributional properties of survey and monitoring data for bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus), brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis), westslope cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarki lewisi), chinook salmon parr (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), and steelhead /redband trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss spp.), from 178 streams in the Interior Columbia River Basin. Negative binomial dispersion parameters varied considerably among species and streams, but were significantly (P<0.05) positively related to fish density. Across streams, the variances in fish abundances differed greatly among species and indicated that the data for all species were overdispersed with respect to the Poisson (i.e., the variances exceeded the means). This significantly affected Poisson probability of detection estimates, which were the highest across species and were, on average, 3.82, 2.66, and 3.47 times greater than baseline values. Required sample sizes for species detection at the 95% confidence level were also lowest for the Poisson, which underestimated sample size requirements an average of 72% across species. Negative binomial and Poisson-gamma probability of detection and sample size estimates were more accurate than the Poisson and generally less than 10% from baseline values. My results indicate the Poisson and binomial assumptions often are violated, which results in probability of detection estimates that are biased high and sample size estimates that are biased low. To increase the accuracy of these estimates, I recommend that future studies use predictive distributions than can incorporate multiple sources of uncertainty or excess variance and that all distributional assumptions be explicitly tested.

  3. PItcHPERFeCT: Primary Intracranial Hemorrhage Probability Estimation using Random Forests on CT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muschelli, John; Sweeney, Elizabeth M; Ullman, Natalie L; Vespa, Paul; Hanley, Daniel F; Crainiceanu, Ciprian M

    2017-01-01

    Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), where a blood vessel ruptures into areas of the brain, accounts for approximately 10-15% of all strokes. X-ray computed tomography (CT) scanning is largely used to assess the location and volume of these hemorrhages. Manual segmentation of the CT scan using planimetry by an expert reader is the gold standard for volume estimation, but is time-consuming and has within- and across-reader variability. We propose a fully automated segmentation approach using a random forest algorithm with features extracted from X-ray computed tomography (CT) scans. The Minimally Invasive Surgery plus rt-PA in ICH Evacuation (MISTIE) trial was a multi-site Phase II clinical trial that tested the safety of hemorrhage removal using recombinant-tissue plasminogen activator (rt-PA). For this analysis, we use 112 baseline CT scans from patients enrolled in the MISTE trial, one CT scan per patient. ICH was manually segmented on these CT scans by expert readers. We derived a set of imaging predictors from each scan. Using 10 randomly-selected scans, we used a first-pass voxel selection procedure based on quantiles of a set of predictors and then built 4 models estimating the voxel-level probability of ICH. The models used were: 1) logistic regression, 2) logistic regression with a penalty on the model parameters using LASSO, 3) a generalized additive model (GAM) and 4) a random forest classifier. The remaining 102 scans were used for model validation.For each validation scan, the model predicted the probability of ICH at each voxel. These voxel-level probabilities were then thresholded to produce binary segmentations of the hemorrhage. These masks were compared to the manual segmentations using the Dice Similarity Index (DSI) and the correlation of hemorrhage volume of between the two segmentations. We tested equality of median DSI using the Kruskal-Wallis test across the 4 models. We tested equality of the median DSI from sets of 2 models using a Wilcoxon

  4. Model approach to estimate the probability of accepting a lot of heterogeneously contaminated powdered food using different sampling strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valero, Antonio; Pasquali, Frédérique; De Cesare, Alessandra; Manfreda, Gerardo

    2014-08-01

    Current sampling plans assume a random distribution of microorganisms in food. However, food-borne pathogens are estimated to be heterogeneously distributed in powdered foods. This spatial distribution together with very low level of contaminations raises concern of the efficiency of current sampling plans for the detection of food-borne pathogens like Cronobacter and Salmonella in powdered foods such as powdered infant formula or powdered eggs. An alternative approach based on a Poisson distribution of the contaminated part of the lot (Habraken approach) was used in order to evaluate the probability of falsely accepting a contaminated lot of powdered food when different sampling strategies were simulated considering variables such as lot size, sample size, microbial concentration in the contaminated part of the lot and proportion of contaminated lot. The simulated results suggest that a sample size of 100g or more corresponds to the lower number of samples to be tested in comparison with sample sizes of 10 or 1g. Moreover, the number of samples to be tested greatly decrease if the microbial concentration is 1CFU/g instead of 0.1CFU/g or if the proportion of contamination is 0.05 instead of 0.01. Mean contaminations higher than 1CFU/g or proportions higher than 0.05 did not impact on the number of samples. The Habraken approach represents a useful tool for risk management in order to design a fit-for-purpose sampling plan for the detection of low levels of food-borne pathogens in heterogeneously contaminated powdered food. However, it must be outlined that although effective in detecting pathogens, these sampling plans are difficult to be applied since the huge number of samples that needs to be tested. Sampling does not seem an effective measure to control pathogens in powdered food. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Spencer-Brown vs. Probability and Statistics: Entropy’s Testimony on Subjective and Objective Randomness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julio Michael Stern

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available This article analyzes the role of entropy in Bayesian statistics, focusing on its use as a tool for detection, recognition and validation of eigen-solutions. “Objects as eigen-solutions” is a key metaphor of the cognitive constructivism epistemological framework developed by the philosopher Heinz von Foerster. Special attention is given to some objections to the concepts of probability, statistics and randomization posed by George Spencer-Brown, a figure of great influence in the field of radical constructivism.

  6. Looping probability of random heteropolymers helps to understand the scaling properties of biopolymers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhan, Y; Giorgetti, L; Tiana, G

    2016-09-01

    Random heteropolymers are a minimal description of biopolymers and can provide a theoretical framework to the investigate the formation of loops in biophysical experiments. The looping probability as a function of polymer length was observed to display in some biopolymers, like chromosomes in cell nuclei or long RNA chains, anomalous scaling exponents. Combining a two-state model with self-adjusting simulated-tempering calculations, we calculate numerically the looping properties of several realizations of the random interactions within the chain. We find a continuous set of exponents upon varying the temperature, which arises from finite-size effects and is amplified by the disorder of the interactions. We suggest that this could provide a simple explanation for the anomalous scaling exponents found in experiments. In addition, our results have important implications notably for the study of chromosome folding as they show that scaling exponents cannot be the sole criteria for testing hypothesis-driven models of chromosome architecture.

  7. A random spatial sampling method in a rural developing nation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michelle C. Kondo; Kent D.W. Bream; Frances K. Barg; Charles C. Branas

    2014-01-01

    Nonrandom sampling of populations in developing nations has limitations and can inaccurately estimate health phenomena, especially among hard-to-reach populations such as rural residents. However, random sampling of rural populations in developing nations can be challenged by incomplete enumeration of the base population. We describe a stratified random sampling method...

  8. Forest inventory using multistage sampling with probability proportional to size. [Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parada, N. D. J. (Principal Investigator); Lee, D. C. L.; Hernandezfilho, P.; Shimabukuro, Y. E.; Deassis, O. R.; Demedeiros, J. S.

    1984-01-01

    A multistage sampling technique, with probability proportional to size, for forest volume inventory using remote sensing data is developed and evaluated. The study area is located in the Southeastern Brazil. The LANDSAT 4 digital data of the study area are used in the first stage for automatic classification of reforested areas. Four classes of pine and eucalypt with different tree volumes are classified utilizing a maximum likelihood classification algorithm. Color infrared aerial photographs are utilized in the second stage of sampling. In the third state (ground level) the time volume of each class is determined. The total time volume of each class is expanded through a statistical procedure taking into account all the three stages of sampling. This procedure results in an accurate time volume estimate with a smaller number of aerial photographs and reduced time in field work.

  9. The Development and Application of Random Match Probabilities to Firearm and Toolmark Identification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murdock, John E; Petraco, Nicholas D K; Thornton, John I; Neel, Michael T; Weller, Todd J; Thompson, Robert M; Hamby, James E; Collins, Eric R

    2017-05-01

    The field of firearms and toolmark analysis has encountered deep scrutiny of late, stemming from a handful of voices, primarily in the law and statistical communities. While strong scrutiny is a healthy and necessary part of any scientific endeavor, much of the current criticism leveled at firearm and toolmark analysis is, at best, misinformed and, at worst, punditry. One of the most persistent criticisms stems from the view that as the field lacks quantified random match probability data (or at least a firm statistical model) with which to calculate the probability of a false match, all expert testimony concerning firearm and toolmark identification or source attribution is unreliable and should be ruled inadmissible. However, this critique does not stem from the hard work of actually obtaining data and performing the scientific research required to support or reject current findings in the literature. Although there are sound reasons (described herein) why there is currently no unifying probabilistic model for the comparison of striated and impressed toolmarks as there is in the field of forensic DNA profiling, much statistical research has been, and continues to be, done to aid the criminal justice system. This research has thus far shown that error rate estimates for the field are very low, especially when compared to other forms of judicial error. The first purpose of this paper is to point out the logical fallacies in the arguments of a small group of pundits, who advocate a particular viewpoint but cloak it as fact and research. The second purpose is to give a balanced review of the literature regarding random match probability models and statistical applications that have been carried out in forensic firearm and toolmark analysis. © 2017 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  10. Recurrence equations for the probability distribution of sample configurations in exact population genetics models

    OpenAIRE

    Lessard, Sabin

    2010-01-01

    Recurrence equations for the number of types and the frequency of each type in a random sample drawn from a finite population undergoing discrete, nonoverlapping generations and reproducing according to the Cannings exchangeable model are deduced under the assumption of a mutation scheme with infinitely many types. The case of overlapping generations in discrete time is also considered. The equations are developed for the Wright-Fisher model and the Moran model, and extended...

  11. Parameter Estimation in Stratified Cluster Sampling under Randomized Response Models for Sensitive Question Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pu, Xiangke; Gao, Ge; Fan, Yubo; Wang, Mian

    2016-01-01

    Randomized response is a research method to get accurate answers to sensitive questions in structured sample survey. Simple random sampling is widely used in surveys of sensitive questions but hard to apply on large targeted populations. On the other side, more sophisticated sampling regimes and corresponding formulas are seldom employed to sensitive question surveys. In this work, we developed a series of formulas for parameter estimation in cluster sampling and stratified cluster sampling under two kinds of randomized response models by using classic sampling theories and total probability formulas. The performances of the sampling methods and formulas in the survey of premarital sex and cheating on exams at Soochow University were also provided. The reliability of the survey methods and formulas for sensitive question survey was found to be high.

  12. Parameter Estimation in Stratified Cluster Sampling under Randomized Response Models for Sensitive Question Survey.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiangke Pu

    Full Text Available Randomized response is a research method to get accurate answers to sensitive questions in structured sample survey. Simple random sampling is widely used in surveys of sensitive questions but hard to apply on large targeted populations. On the other side, more sophisticated sampling regimes and corresponding formulas are seldom employed to sensitive question surveys. In this work, we developed a series of formulas for parameter estimation in cluster sampling and stratified cluster sampling under two kinds of randomized response models by using classic sampling theories and total probability formulas. The performances of the sampling methods and formulas in the survey of premarital sex and cheating on exams at Soochow University were also provided. The reliability of the survey methods and formulas for sensitive question survey was found to be high.

  13. A comparison of methods for representing sparsely sampled random quantities.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Romero, Vicente Jose; Swiler, Laura Painton; Urbina, Angel; Mullins, Joshua

    2013-09-01

    This report discusses the treatment of uncertainties stemming from relatively few samples of random quantities. The importance of this topic extends beyond experimental data uncertainty to situations involving uncertainty in model calibration, validation, and prediction. With very sparse data samples it is not practical to have a goal of accurately estimating the underlying probability density function (PDF). Rather, a pragmatic goal is that the uncertainty representation should be conservative so as to bound a specified percentile range of the actual PDF, say the range between 0.025 and .975 percentiles, with reasonable reliability. A second, opposing objective is that the representation not be overly conservative; that it minimally over-estimate the desired percentile range of the actual PDF. The presence of the two opposing objectives makes the sparse-data uncertainty representation problem interesting and difficult. In this report, five uncertainty representation techniques are characterized for their performance on twenty-one test problems (over thousands of trials for each problem) according to these two opposing objectives and other performance measures. Two of the methods, statistical Tolerance Intervals and a kernel density approach specifically developed for handling sparse data, exhibit significantly better overall performance than the others.

  14. Assessing Uncertainties of Theoretical Atomic Transition Probabilities with Monte Carlo Random Trials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Kramida

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper suggests a method of evaluation of uncertainties in calculated transition probabilities by randomly varying parameters of an atomic code and comparing the results. A control code has been written to randomly vary the input parameters with a normal statistical distribution around initial values with a certain standard deviation. For this particular implementation, Cowan’s suite of atomic codes (R.D. Cowan, The Theory of Atomic Structure and Spectra, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1981 was used to calculate radiative rates of magnetic-dipole and electric-quadrupole transitions within the ground configuration of titanium-like iron, Fe V. The Slater parameters used in the calculations were adjusted to fit experimental energy levels with Cowan’s least-squares fitting program, RCE. The standard deviations of the fitted parameters were used as input of the control code providing the distribution widths of random trials for these parameters. Propagation of errors through the matrix diagonalization and summation of basis state expansions leads to significant variations in the resulting transition rates. These variations vastly differ in their magnitude for different transitions, depending on their sensitivity to errors in parameters. With this method, the rate uncertainty can be individually assessed for each calculated transition.

  15. Power Spectrum Estimation of Randomly Sampled Signals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Velte, Clara M.; Buchhave, Preben; K. George, William

    2014-01-01

    with high data rate and low inherent bias, respectively, while residence time weighting provides non-biased estimates regardless of setting. The free-running processor was also tested and compared to residence time weighting using actual LDA measurements in a turbulent round jet. Power spectra from...... of alternative methods attempting to produce correct power spectra have been invented andtested. The objective of the current study is to create a simple computer generated signal for baseline testing of residence time weighting and some of the most commonly proposed algorithms (or algorithms which most...... modernalgorithms ultimately are based on), sample-and-hold and the direct spectral estimator without residence time weighting, and compare how they perform in relation to power spectra based on the equidistantly sampled reference signal. The computer generated signal is a Poisson process with a sample rate...

  16. Random constraint sampling and duality for convex optimization

    OpenAIRE

    Haskell, William B.; Pengqian, Yu

    2016-01-01

    We are interested in solving convex optimization problems with large numbers of constraints. Randomized algorithms, such as random constraint sampling, have been very successful in giving nearly optimal solutions to such problems. In this paper, we combine random constraint sampling with the classical primal-dual algorithm for convex optimization problems with large numbers of constraints, and we give a convergence rate analysis. We then report numerical experiments that verify the effectiven...

  17. Statistical computation of Boltzmann entropy and estimation of the optimal probability density function from statistical sample

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sui, Ning; Li, Min; He, Ping

    2014-12-01

    In this work, we investigate the statistical computation of the Boltzmann entropy of statistical samples. For this purpose, we use both histogram and kernel function to estimate the probability density function of statistical samples. We find that, due to coarse-graining, the entropy is a monotonic increasing function of the bin width for histogram or bandwidth for kernel estimation, which seems to be difficult to select an optimal bin width/bandwidth for computing the entropy. Fortunately, we notice that there exists a minimum of the first derivative of entropy for both histogram and kernel estimation, and this minimum point of the first derivative asymptotically points to the optimal bin width or bandwidth. We have verified these findings by large amounts of numerical experiments. Hence, we suggest that the minimum of the first derivative of entropy be used as a selector for the optimal bin width or bandwidth of density estimation. Moreover, the optimal bandwidth selected by the minimum of the first derivative of entropy is purely data-based, independent of the unknown underlying probability density distribution, which is obviously superior to the existing estimators. Our results are not restricted to one-dimensional, but can also be extended to multivariate cases. It should be emphasized, however, that we do not provide a robust mathematical proof of these findings, and we leave these issues with those who are interested in them.

  18. Random number datasets generated from statistical analysis of randomly sampled GSM recharge cards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okagbue, Hilary I; Opanuga, Abiodun A; Oguntunde, Pelumi E; Ugwoke, Paulinus O

    2017-02-01

    In this article, a random number of datasets was generated from random samples of used GSM (Global Systems for Mobile Communications) recharge cards. Statistical analyses were performed to refine the raw data to random number datasets arranged in table. A detailed description of the method and relevant tests of randomness were also discussed.

  19. Power Spectrum Estimation of Randomly Sampled Signals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Velte, C. M.; Buchhave, P.; K. George, W.

    . Residence time weighting provides non-biased estimates regardless of setting. The free-running processor was also tested and compared to residence time weighting using actual LDA measurements in a turbulent round jet. Power spectra from measurements on the jet centerline and the outer part of the jet...... sine waves. The primary signal and the corresponding power spectrum are shown in Figure 1. The conventional spectrum shows multiple erroneous mixing frequencies and the peak values are too low. The residence time weighted spectrum is correct. The sample-and-hold spectrum has lower power than...... the correct spectrum, and the f -2-filtering effect appearing for low data densities is evident (Adrian and Yao 1987). The remaining tests also show that sample-and-hold and the free-running processor perform well only under very particular circumstances with high data rate and low inherent bias, respectively...

  20. Continuous-time random walk: exact solutions for the probability density function and first two moments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kwok Sau Fa [Departamento de Fisica, Universidade Estadual de Maringa, Av. Colombo 5790, 87020-900 Maringa-PR (Brazil); Joni Fat, E-mail: kwok@dfi.uem.br [Jurusan Teknik Elektro-Fakultas Teknik, Universitas Tarumanagara, Jl. Let. Jend. S. Parman 1, Blok L, Lantai 3 Grogol, Jakarta 11440 (Indonesia)

    2011-10-15

    We consider the decoupled continuous-time random walk model with a finite characteristic waiting time and approximate jump length variance. We take the waiting time probability density function (PDF) given by a combination of the exponential and the Mittag-Leffler function. Using this waiting time PDF, we investigate the diffusion behavior for all times. We obtain exact solutions for the first two moments and the PDF for the force-free and linear force cases. Due to the finite characteristic waiting time and jump length variance, the model presents, for the force-free case, normal diffusive behavior in the long-time limit. Further, the model can describe anomalous behavior at intermediate times.

  1. rft1d: Smooth One-Dimensional Random Field Upcrossing Probabilities in Python

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Todd C. Pataky

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Through topological expectations regarding smooth, thresholded n-dimensional Gaussian continua, random field theory (RFT describes probabilities associated with both the field-wide maximum and threshold-surviving upcrossing geometry. A key application of RFT is a correction for multiple comparisons which affords field-level hypothesis testing for both univariate and multivariate fields. For unbroken isotropic fields just one parameter in addition to the mean and variance is required: the ratio of a field's size to its smoothness. Ironically the simplest manifestation of RFT (1D unbroken fields has rarely surfaced in the literature, even during its foundational development in the late 1970s. This Python package implements 1D RFT primarily for exploring and validating RFT expectations, but also describes how it can be applied to yield statistical inferences regarding sets of experimental 1D fields.

  2. Are most samples of animals systematically biased? Consistent individual trait differences bias samples despite random sampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biro, Peter A

    2013-02-01

    Sampling animals from the wild for study is something nearly every biologist has done, but despite our best efforts to obtain random samples of animals, 'hidden' trait biases may still exist. For example, consistent behavioral traits can affect trappability/catchability, independent of obvious factors such as size and gender, and these traits are often correlated with other repeatable physiological and/or life history traits. If so, systematic sampling bias may exist for any of these traits. The extent to which this is a problem, of course, depends on the magnitude of bias, which is presently unknown because the underlying trait distributions in populations are usually unknown, or unknowable. Indeed, our present knowledge about sampling bias comes from samples (not complete population censuses), which can possess bias to begin with. I had the unique opportunity to create naturalized populations of fish by seeding each of four small fishless lakes with equal densities of slow-, intermediate-, and fast-growing fish. Using sampling methods that are not size-selective, I observed that fast-growing fish were up to two-times more likely to be sampled than slower-growing fish. This indicates substantial and systematic bias with respect to an important life history trait (growth rate). If correlations between behavioral, physiological and life-history traits are as widespread as the literature suggests, then many animal samples may be systematically biased with respect to these traits (e.g., when collecting animals for laboratory use), and affect our inferences about population structure and abundance. I conclude with a discussion on ways to minimize sampling bias for particular physiological/behavioral/life-history types within animal populations.

  3. Awareness and attitudes regarding microbicides and Nonoxynol-9 use in a probability sample of gay men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carballo-Diéguez, Alex; O'Sullivan, Lucia F; Lin, Peter; Dolezal, Curtis; Pollack, Lance; Catania, Joseph

    2007-03-01

    A household probability sample of 879 adult gay and other men who have sex with men in San Francisco underwent phone interviews. Approximately, half reported recent unprotected anal intercourse (UAI). Yet, lubricant use was high, a behavior that may facilitate future adoption of topical microbicide delivered by a lubricant gel. Despite warnings against Nonoxynol-9 (N-9), 26% of respondents reported still using it. Microbicide awareness was higher among men reporting UAI than among consistent condom users. Scenarios presenting microbicides "as effective as condoms," "nearly as effective," or "less effective but better than nothing" produced wide variability in willingness to use them, which may have implications for microbicide acceptability. HIV-infected men and those who reported UAI showed greater microbicide acceptance.

  4. Random errors of oceanic monthly rainfall derived from SSM/I using probability distribution functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Alfred T. C.; Chiu, Long S.; Wilheit, Thomas T.

    1993-01-01

    Global averages and random errors associated with the monthly oceanic rain rates derived from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) data using the technique developed by Wilheit et al. (1991) are computed. Accounting for the beam-filling bias, a global annual average rain rate of 1.26 m is computed. The error estimation scheme is based on the existence of independent (morning and afternoon) estimates of the monthly mean. Calculations show overall random errors of about 50-60 percent for each 5 deg x 5 deg box. The results are insensitive to different sampling strategy (odd and even days of the month). Comparison of the SSM/I estimates with raingage data collected at the Pacific atoll stations showed a low bias of about 8 percent, a correlation of 0.7, and an rms difference of 55 percent.

  5. SOME SYSTEMATIC SAMPLING STRATEGIES USING MULTIPLE RANDOM STARTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sampath Sundaram

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper an attempt is made to extend linear systematic sampling using multiple random starts due to Gautschi(1957for various types of systematic sampling schemes available in literature, namely(i  Balanced Systematic Sampling (BSS of  Sethi (1965 and (ii Modified Systematic Sampling (MSS of Singh, Jindal, and Garg  (1968. Further, the proposed methods were compared with Yates corrected estimator developed with reference to Gautschi’s Linear systematic sampling (LSS with two random starts using appropriate super population models with the  help of R package for statistical computing.

  6. Efficient sampling of complex network with modified random walk strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Yunya; Chang, Shuhua; Zhang, Zhipeng; Zhang, Mi; Yang, Lei

    2018-02-01

    We present two novel random walk strategies, choosing seed node (CSN) random walk and no-retracing (NR) random walk. Different from the classical random walk sampling, the CSN and NR strategies focus on the influences of the seed node choice and path overlap, respectively. Three random walk samplings are applied in the Erdös-Rényi (ER), Barabási-Albert (BA), Watts-Strogatz (WS), and the weighted USAir networks, respectively. Then, the major properties of sampled subnets, such as sampling efficiency, degree distributions, average degree and average clustering coefficient, are studied. The similar conclusions can be reached with these three random walk strategies. Firstly, the networks with small scales and simple structures are conducive to the sampling. Secondly, the average degree and the average clustering coefficient of the sampled subnet tend to the corresponding values of original networks with limited steps. And thirdly, all the degree distributions of the subnets are slightly biased to the high degree side. However, the NR strategy performs better for the average clustering coefficient of the subnet. In the real weighted USAir networks, some obvious characters like the larger clustering coefficient and the fluctuation of degree distribution are reproduced well by these random walk strategies.

  7. Misrepresenting random sampling? A systematic review of research papers in the Journal of Advanced Nursing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williamson, Graham R

    2003-11-01

    This paper discusses the theoretical limitations of the use of random sampling and probability theory in the production of a significance level (or P-value) in nursing research. Potential alternatives, in the form of randomization tests, are proposed. Research papers in nursing, medicine and psychology frequently misrepresent their statistical findings, as the P-values reported assume random sampling. In this systematic review of studies published between January 1995 and June 2002 in the Journal of Advanced Nursing, 89 (68%) studies broke this assumption because they used convenience samples or entire populations. As a result, some of the findings may be questionable. The key ideas of random sampling and probability theory for statistical testing (for generating a P-value) are outlined. The result of a systematic review of research papers published in the Journal of Advanced Nursing is then presented, showing how frequently random sampling appears to have been misrepresented. Useful alternative techniques that might overcome these limitations are then discussed. REVIEW LIMITATIONS: This review is limited in scope because it is applied to one journal, and so the findings cannot be generalized to other nursing journals or to nursing research in general. However, it is possible that other nursing journals are also publishing research articles based on the misrepresentation of random sampling. The review is also limited because in several of the articles the sampling method was not completely clearly stated, and in this circumstance a judgment has been made as to the sampling method employed, based on the indications given by author(s). Quantitative researchers in nursing should be very careful that the statistical techniques they use are appropriate for the design and sampling methods of their studies. If the techniques they employ are not appropriate, they run the risk of misinterpreting findings by using inappropriate, unrepresentative and biased samples.

  8. Probability and stochastic modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Rotar, Vladimir I

    2012-01-01

    Basic NotionsSample Space and EventsProbabilitiesCounting TechniquesIndependence and Conditional ProbabilityIndependenceConditioningThe Borel-Cantelli TheoremDiscrete Random VariablesRandom Variables and VectorsExpected ValueVariance and Other Moments. Inequalities for DeviationsSome Basic DistributionsConvergence of Random Variables. The Law of Large NumbersConditional ExpectationGenerating Functions. Branching Processes. Random Walk RevisitedBranching Processes Generating Functions Branching Processes Revisited More on Random WalkMarkov ChainsDefinitions and Examples. Probability Distributions of Markov ChainsThe First Step Analysis. Passage TimesVariables Defined on a Markov ChainErgodicity and Stationary DistributionsA Classification of States and ErgodicityContinuous Random VariablesContinuous DistributionsSome Basic Distributions Continuous Multivariate Distributions Sums of Independent Random Variables Conditional Distributions and ExpectationsDistributions in the General Case. SimulationDistribution F...

  9. Methods for sample size determination in cluster randomized trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutterford, Clare; Copas, Andrew; Eldridge, Sandra

    2015-06-01

    The use of cluster randomized trials (CRTs) is increasing, along with the variety in their design and analysis. The simplest approach for their sample size calculation is to calculate the sample size assuming individual randomization and inflate this by a design effect to account for randomization by cluster. The assumptions of a simple design effect may not always be met; alternative or more complicated approaches are required. We summarise a wide range of sample size methods available for cluster randomized trials. For those familiar with sample size calculations for individually randomized trials but with less experience in the clustered case, this manuscript provides formulae for a wide range of scenarios with associated explanation and recommendations. For those with more experience, comprehensive summaries are provided that allow quick identification of methods for a given design, outcome and analysis method. We present first those methods applicable to the simplest two-arm, parallel group, completely randomized design followed by methods that incorporate deviations from this design such as: variability in cluster sizes; attrition; non-compliance; or the inclusion of baseline covariates or repeated measures. The paper concludes with methods for alternative designs. There is a large amount of methodology available for sample size calculations in CRTs. This paper gives the most comprehensive description of published methodology for sample size calculation and provides an important resource for those designing these trials. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

  10. SOME SYSTEMATIC SAMPLING STRATEGIES USING MULTIPLE RANDOM STARTS

    OpenAIRE

    Sampath Sundaram; Ammani Sivaraman

    2010-01-01

    In this paper an attempt is made to extend linear systematic sampling using multiple random starts due to Gautschi(1957)for various types of systematic sampling schemes available in literature, namely(i)  Balanced Systematic Sampling (BSS) of  Sethi (1965) and (ii) Modified Systematic Sampling (MSS) of Singh, Jindal, and Garg  (1968). Further, the proposed methods were compared with Yates corrected estimator developed with reference to Gautschi’s Linear systematic samplin...

  11. What's Missing in Teaching Probability and Statistics: Building Cognitive Schema for Understanding Random Phenomena

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuzmak, Sylvia

    2016-01-01

    Teaching probability and statistics is more than teaching the mathematics itself. Historically, the mathematics of probability and statistics was first developed through analyzing games of chance such as the rolling of dice. This article makes the case that the understanding of probability and statistics is dependent upon building a…

  12. Epidemiology of undiagnosed trichomoniasis in a probability sample of urban young adults.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susan M Rogers

    Full Text Available T. vaginalis infection (trichomoniasis is the most common curable sexually transmitted infection (STI in the U.S. It is associated with increased HIV risk and adverse pregnancy outcomes. Trichomoniasis surveillance data do not exist for either national or local populations. The Monitoring STIs Survey Program (MSSP collected survey data and specimens which were tested using nucleic acid amplification tests to monitor trichomoniasis and other STIs in 2006-09 among a probability sample of young adults (N = 2,936 in Baltimore, Maryland--an urban area with high rates of reported STIs. The estimated prevalence of trichomoniasis was 7.5% (95% CI 6.3, 9.1 in the overall population and 16.1% (95% CI 13.0, 19.8 among Black women. The overwhelming majority of infected men (98.5% and women (73.3% were asymptomatic. Infections were more common in both women (OR = 3.6, 95% CI 1.6, 8.2 and men (OR = 9.0, 95% CI 1.8, 44.3 with concurrent chlamydial infection. Trichomoniasis did not vary significantly by age for either men or women. Women with two or more partners in the past year and women with a history of personal or partner incarceration were more likely to have an infection. Overall, these results suggest that routine T vaginalis screening in populations at elevated risk of infection should be considered.

  13. Epidemiology of undiagnosed trichomoniasis in a probability sample of urban young adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Susan M; Turner, Charles F; Hobbs, Marcia; Miller, William C; Tan, Sylvia; Roman, Anthony M; Eggleston, Elizabeth; Villarroel, Maria A; Ganapathi, Laxminarayana; Chromy, James R; Erbelding, Emily

    2014-01-01

    T. vaginalis infection (trichomoniasis) is the most common curable sexually transmitted infection (STI) in the U.S. It is associated with increased HIV risk and adverse pregnancy outcomes. Trichomoniasis surveillance data do not exist for either national or local populations. The Monitoring STIs Survey Program (MSSP) collected survey data and specimens which were tested using nucleic acid amplification tests to monitor trichomoniasis and other STIs in 2006-09 among a probability sample of young adults (N = 2,936) in Baltimore, Maryland--an urban area with high rates of reported STIs. The estimated prevalence of trichomoniasis was 7.5% (95% CI 6.3, 9.1) in the overall population and 16.1% (95% CI 13.0, 19.8) among Black women. The overwhelming majority of infected men (98.5%) and women (73.3%) were asymptomatic. Infections were more common in both women (OR = 3.6, 95% CI 1.6, 8.2) and men (OR = 9.0, 95% CI 1.8, 44.3) with concurrent chlamydial infection. Trichomoniasis did not vary significantly by age for either men or women. Women with two or more partners in the past year and women with a history of personal or partner incarceration were more likely to have an infection. Overall, these results suggest that routine T vaginalis screening in populations at elevated risk of infection should be considered.

  14. Male Circumcision and STI Acquisition in Britain: Evidence from a National Probability Sample Survey.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Virginia Homfray

    Full Text Available It is well-established that male circumcision reduces acquisition of HIV, herpes simplex virus 2, chancroid, and syphilis. However, the effect on the acquisition of non-ulcerative sexually transmitted infections (STIs remains unclear. We examined the relationship between circumcision and biological measures of three STIs: human papillomavirus (HPV, Chlamydia trachomatis and Mycoplasma genitalium.A probability sample survey of 15,162 men and women aged 16-74 years (including 4,060 men aged 16-44 years was carried out in Britain between 2010 and 2012. Participants completed a computer-assisted personal interview, including a computer-assisted self-interview, which asked about experience of STI diagnoses, and circumcision. Additionally, 1,850 urine samples from sexually-experienced men aged 16-44 years were collected and tested for STIs. Multivariable logistic regression was used to calculate adjusted odds ratios (AOR to quantify associations between circumcision and i self-reporting any STI diagnosis and ii presence of STIs in urine, in men aged 16-44 years, adjusting for key socio-demographic and sexual behavioural factors.The prevalence of circumcision in sexually-experienced men aged 16-44 years was 17.4% (95%CI 16.0-19.0. There was no association between circumcision and reporting any previous STI diagnoses, and specifically previous chlamydia or genital warts. However, circumcised men were less likely to have any HPV type (AOR 0.26, 95% confidence interval (CI 0.13-0.50 including high-risk HPV types (HPV-16, 18, 31, 33, 35, 39, 45, 51, 52, 56, 58, 59 and/or 68 (AOR 0.14, 95% CI 0.05-0.40 detected in urine.Circumcised men had reduced odds of HPV detection in urine. These findings have implications for improving the precision of models of STI transmission in populations with different circumcision prevalence and in designing interventions to reduce STI acquisition.

  15. Sequential time interleaved random equivalent sampling for repetitive signal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yijiu; Liu, Jingjing

    2016-12-01

    Compressed sensing (CS) based sampling techniques exhibit many advantages over other existing approaches for sparse signal spectrum sensing; they are also incorporated into non-uniform sampling signal reconstruction to improve the efficiency, such as random equivalent sampling (RES). However, in CS based RES, only one sample of each acquisition is considered in the signal reconstruction stage, and it will result in more acquisition runs and longer sampling time. In this paper, a sampling sequence is taken in each RES acquisition run, and the corresponding block measurement matrix is constructed using a Whittaker-Shannon interpolation formula. All the block matrices are combined into an equivalent measurement matrix with respect to all sampling sequences. We implemented the proposed approach with a multi-cores analog-to-digital converter (ADC), whose ADC cores are time interleaved. A prototype realization of this proposed CS based sequential random equivalent sampling method has been developed. It is able to capture an analog waveform at an equivalent sampling rate of 40 GHz while sampled at 1 GHz physically. Experiments indicate that, for a sparse signal, the proposed CS based sequential random equivalent sampling exhibits high efficiency.

  16. Dealing with varying detection probability, unequal sample sizes and clumped distributions in count data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D Johan Kotze

    Full Text Available Temporal variation in the detectability of a species can bias estimates of relative abundance if not handled correctly. For example, when effort varies in space and/or time it becomes necessary to take variation in detectability into account when data are analyzed. We demonstrate the importance of incorporating seasonality into the analysis of data with unequal sample sizes due to lost traps at a particular density of a species. A case study of count data was simulated using a spring-active carabid beetle. Traps were 'lost' randomly during high beetle activity in high abundance sites and during low beetle activity in low abundance sites. Five different models were fitted to datasets with different levels of loss. If sample sizes were unequal and a seasonality variable was not included in models that assumed the number of individuals was log-normally distributed, the models severely under- or overestimated the true effect size. Results did not improve when seasonality and number of trapping days were included in these models as offset terms, but only performed well when the response variable was specified as following a negative binomial distribution. Finally, if seasonal variation of a species is unknown, which is often the case, seasonality can be added as a free factor, resulting in well-performing negative binomial models. Based on these results we recommend (a add sampling effort (number of trapping days in our example to the models as an offset term, (b if precise information is available on seasonal variation in detectability of a study object, add seasonality to the models as an offset term; (c if information on seasonal variation in detectability is inadequate, add seasonality as a free factor; and (d specify the response variable of count data as following a negative binomial or over-dispersed Poisson distribution.

  17. Optimum allocation in multivariate stratified random sampling: Stochastic matrix optimisation

    OpenAIRE

    Diaz-Garcia, Jose A.; Ramos-Quiroga, Rogelio

    2011-01-01

    The allocation problem for multivariate stratified random sampling as a problem of stochastic matrix integer mathematical programming is considered. With these aims the asymptotic normality of sample covariance matrices for each strata is established. Some alternative approaches are suggested for its solution. An example is solved by applying the proposed techniques.

  18. Random Walks on Directed Networks: Inference and Respondent-driven Sampling

    CERN Document Server

    Malmros, Jens; Britton, Tom

    2013-01-01

    Respondent driven sampling (RDS) is a method often used to estimate population properties (e.g. sexual risk behavior) in hard-to-reach populations. It combines an effective modified snowball sampling methodology with an estimation procedure that yields unbiased population estimates under the assumption that the sampling process behaves like a random walk on the social network of the population. Current RDS estimation methodology assumes that the social network is undirected, i.e. that all edges are reciprocal. However, empirical social networks in general also have non-reciprocated edges. To account for this fact, we develop a new estimation method for RDS in the presence of directed edges on the basis of random walks on directed networks. We distinguish directed and undirected edges and consider the possibility that the random walk returns to its current position in two steps through an undirected edge. We derive estimators of the selection probabilities of individuals as a function of the number of outgoing...

  19. Introduction to probability with Mathematica

    CERN Document Server

    Hastings, Kevin J

    2009-01-01

    Discrete ProbabilityThe Cast of Characters Properties of Probability Simulation Random SamplingConditional ProbabilityIndependenceDiscrete DistributionsDiscrete Random Variables, Distributions, and ExpectationsBernoulli and Binomial Random VariablesGeometric and Negative Binomial Random Variables Poisson DistributionJoint, Marginal, and Conditional Distributions More on ExpectationContinuous ProbabilityFrom the Finite to the (Very) Infinite Continuous Random Variables and DistributionsContinuous ExpectationContinuous DistributionsThe Normal Distribution Bivariate Normal DistributionNew Random Variables from OldOrder Statistics Gamma DistributionsChi-Square, Student's t, and F-DistributionsTransformations of Normal Random VariablesAsymptotic TheoryStrong and Weak Laws of Large Numbers Central Limit TheoremStochastic Processes and ApplicationsMarkov ChainsPoisson Processes QueuesBrownian MotionFinancial MathematicsAppendixIntroduction to Mathematica Glossary of Mathematica Commands for Probability Short Answers...

  20. A random spatial sampling method in a rural developing nation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kondo, Michelle C; Bream, Kent D W; Barg, Frances K; Branas, Charles C

    2014-04-10

    Nonrandom sampling of populations in developing nations has limitations and can inaccurately estimate health phenomena, especially among hard-to-reach populations such as rural residents. However, random sampling of rural populations in developing nations can be challenged by incomplete enumeration of the base population. We describe a stratified random sampling method using geographical information system (GIS) software and global positioning system (GPS) technology for application in a health survey in a rural region of Guatemala, as well as a qualitative study of the enumeration process. This method offers an alternative sampling technique that could reduce opportunities for bias in household selection compared to cluster methods. However, its use is subject to issues surrounding survey preparation, technological limitations and in-the-field household selection. Application of this method in remote areas will raise challenges surrounding the boundary delineation process, use and translation of satellite imagery between GIS and GPS, and household selection at each survey point in varying field conditions. This method favors household selection in denser urban areas and in new residential developments. Random spatial sampling methodology can be used to survey a random sample of population in a remote region of a developing nation. Although this method should be further validated and compared with more established methods to determine its utility in social survey applications, it shows promise for use in developing nations with resource-challenged environments where detailed geographic and human census data are less available.

  1. A probability-based sampling approach for the analysis of drug seizures composed of multiple containers of either cocaine, heroin, or Cannabis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mario, John R

    2010-04-15

    A probability-based analytical sampling approach for seized containers of cocaine, Cannabis, or heroin, to answer questions of both content weight and identity, is described. It utilizes the Student's t distribution, and, because of the lack of normality in studied populations, the power of the Central Limit Theorem with samples of size 20 to calculate the mean net weights of multiple item drug seizures. Populations studied ranged between 50 and 1200 units. Identity determination is based on chemical testing and sampling using the hypergeometric distribution fit to a program macro - created by the European Network of Forensic Science Institutes (ENFSI) Drugs Working Group. Formal random item selection is effected through use of an Excel-generated list of random numbers. Included, because of their impact on actual practice, are discussions of admissibility, sufficiency of proof, method validation, and harmony with the guidelines of international standardizing bodies. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Impulsive synchronization of Markovian jumping randomly coupled neural networks with partly unknown transition probabilities via multiple integral approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandrasekar, A; Rakkiyappan, R; Cao, Jinde

    2015-10-01

    This paper studies the impulsive synchronization of Markovian jumping randomly coupled neural networks with partly unknown transition probabilities via multiple integral approach. The array of neural networks are coupled in a random fashion which is governed by Bernoulli random variable. The aim of this paper is to obtain the synchronization criteria, which is suitable for both exactly known and partly unknown transition probabilities such that the coupled neural network is synchronized with mixed time-delay. The considered impulsive effects can be synchronized at partly unknown transition probabilities. Besides, a multiple integral approach is also proposed to strengthen the Markovian jumping randomly coupled neural networks with partly unknown transition probabilities. By making use of Kronecker product and some useful integral inequalities, a novel Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional was designed for handling the coupled neural network with mixed delay and then impulsive synchronization criteria are solvable in a set of linear matrix inequalities. Finally, numerical examples are presented to illustrate the effectiveness and advantages of the theoretical results. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Effects of Sampling Strategy, Detection Probability, and Independence of Counts on the Use of Point Counts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grey W. Pendleton

    1995-01-01

    Many factors affect the use of point counts for monitoring bird populations, including sampling strategies, variation in detection rates, and independence of sample points. The most commonly used sampling plans are stratified sampling, cluster sampling, and systematic sampling. Each of these might be most useful for different objectives or field situations. Variation...

  4. The proportionator: unbiased stereological estimation using biased automatic image analysis and non-uniform probability proportional to size sampling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gardi, Jonathan Eyal; Nyengaard, Jens Randel; Gundersen, Hans Jørgen Gottlieb

    2008-01-01

    The proportionator is a novel and radically different approach to sampling with microscopes based on well-known statistical theory (probability proportional to size - PPS sampling). It uses automatic image analysis, with a large range of options, to assign to every field of view in the section a ...

  5. Application of binomial and multinomial probability statistics to the sampling design process of a global grain tracing and recall system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Small, coded, pill-sized tracers embedded in grain are proposed as a method for grain traceability. A sampling process for a grain traceability system was designed and investigated by applying probability statistics using a science-based sampling approach to collect an adequate number of tracers fo...

  6. Sample size guidelines for fitting a lognormal probability distribution to censored most probable number data with a Markov chain Monte Carlo method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Michael S; Cao, Yong; Ebel, Eric D

    2013-07-15

    Levels of pathogenic organisms in food and water have steadily declined in many parts of the world. A consequence of this reduction is that the proportion of samples that test positive for the most contaminated product-pathogen pairings has fallen to less than 0.1. While this is unequivocally beneficial to public health, datasets with very few enumerated samples present an analytical challenge because a large proportion of the observations are censored values. One application of particular interest to risk assessors is the fitting of a statistical distribution function to datasets collected at some point in the farm-to-table continuum. The fitted distribution forms an important component of an exposure assessment. A number of studies have compared different fitting methods and proposed lower limits on the proportion of samples where the organisms of interest are identified and enumerated, with the recommended lower limit of enumerated samples being 0.2. This recommendation may not be applicable to food safety risk assessments for a number of reasons, which include the development of new Bayesian fitting methods, the use of highly sensitive screening tests, and the generally larger sample sizes found in surveys of food commodities. This study evaluates the performance of a Markov chain Monte Carlo fitting method when used in conjunction with a screening test and enumeration of positive samples by the Most Probable Number technique. The results suggest that levels of contamination for common product-pathogen pairs, such as Salmonella on poultry carcasses, can be reliably estimated with the proposed fitting method and samples sizes in excess of 500 observations. The results do, however, demonstrate that simple guidelines for this application, such as the proportion of positive samples, cannot be provided. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  7. Random sampling and validation of covariance matrices of resonance parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plevnik, Lucijan; Zerovnik, Gašper

    2017-09-01

    Analytically exact methods for random sampling of arbitrary correlated parameters are presented. Emphasis is given on one hand on the possible inconsistencies in the covariance data, concentrating on the positive semi-definiteness and consistent sampling of correlated inherently positive parameters, and on the other hand on optimization of the implementation of the methods itself. The methods have been applied in the program ENDSAM, written in the Fortran language, which from a file from a nuclear data library of a chosen isotope in ENDF-6 format produces an arbitrary number of new files in ENDF-6 format which contain values of random samples of resonance parameters (in accordance with corresponding covariance matrices) in places of original values. The source code for the program ENDSAM is available from the OECD/NEA Data Bank. The program works in the following steps: reads resonance parameters and their covariance data from nuclear data library, checks whether the covariance data is consistent, and produces random samples of resonance parameters. The code has been validated with both realistic and artificial data to show that the produced samples are statistically consistent. Additionally, the code was used to validate covariance data in existing nuclear data libraries. A list of inconsistencies, observed in covariance data of resonance parameters in ENDF-VII.1, JEFF-3.2 and JENDL-4.0 is presented. For now, the work has been limited to resonance parameters, however the methods presented are general and can in principle be extended to sampling and validation of any nuclear data.

  8. Generalized and synthetic regression estimators for randomized branch sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    David L. R. Affleck; Timothy G. Gregoire

    2015-01-01

    In felled-tree studies, ratio and regression estimators are commonly used to convert more readily measured branch characteristics to dry crown mass estimates. In some cases, data from multiple trees are pooled to form these estimates. This research evaluates the utility of both tactics in the estimation of crown biomass following randomized branch sampling (...

  9. Effective sampling of random surfaces by baby universe surgery

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ambjørn, J.; Białas, P.; Jurkiewicz, J.; Burda, Z.; Petersson, B.

    1994-01-01

    We propose a new, very efficient algorithm for sampling of random surfaces in the Monte Carlo simulations, based on so-called baby universe surgery, i.e. cutting and pasting of baby universe. It drastically reduces slowing down as compared to the standard local flip algorithm, thereby allowing

  10. Sampling stored product insect pests: a comparison of four statistical sampling models for probability of pest detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Statistically robust sampling strategies form an integral component of grain storage and handling activities throughout the world. Developing sampling strategies to target biological pests such as insects in stored grain is inherently difficult due to species biology and behavioral characteristics. ...

  11. Loaded dice in Monte Carlo : importance sampling in phase space integration and probability distributions for discrepancies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hameren, Andreas Ferdinand Willem van

    2001-01-01

    Discrepancies play an important role in the study of uniformity properties of point sets. Their probability distributions are a help in the analysis of the efficiency of the Quasi Monte Carlo method of numerical integration, which uses point sets that are distributed more uniformly than sets of

  12. OPTIMAL ESTIMATION OF RANDOM PROCESSES ON THE CRITERION OF MAXIMUM A POSTERIORI PROBABILITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Lobaty

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The problem of obtaining the equations for the a posteriori probability density of a stochastic Markov process with a linear measurement model. Unlike common approaches based on consideration as a criterion for optimization of the minimum mean square error of estimation, in this case, the optimization criterion is considered the maximum a posteriori probability density of the process being evaluated.The a priori probability density estimated Gaussian process originally considered a differentiable function that allows us to expand it in a Taylor series without use of intermediate transformations characteristic functions and harmonic decomposition. For small time intervals the probability density measurement error vector, by definition, as given by a Gaussian with zero expectation. This makes it possible to obtain a mathematical expression for the residual function, which characterizes the deviation of the actual measurement process from its mathematical model.To determine the optimal a posteriori estimation of the state vector is given by the assumption that this estimate is consistent with its expectation – the maximum a posteriori probability density. This makes it possible on the basis of Bayes’ formula for the a priori and a posteriori probability density of an equation Stratonovich-Kushner.Using equation Stratonovich-Kushner in different types and values of the vector of drift and diffusion matrix of a Markov stochastic process can solve a variety of filtration tasks, identify, smoothing and system status forecast for continuous and for discrete systems. Discrete continuous implementation of the developed algorithms posteriori assessment provides a specific, discrete algorithms for the implementation of the on-board computer, a mobile robot system.

  13. Random sampler M-estimator algorithm with sequential probability ratio test for robust function approximation via feed-forward neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Melegy, Moumen T

    2013-07-01

    This paper addresses the problem of fitting a functional model to data corrupted with outliers using a multilayered feed-forward neural network. Although it is of high importance in practical applications, this problem has not received careful attention from the neural network research community. One recent approach to solving this problem is to use a neural network training algorithm based on the random sample consensus (RANSAC) framework. This paper proposes a new algorithm that offers two enhancements over the original RANSAC algorithm. The first one improves the algorithm accuracy and robustness by employing an M-estimator cost function to decide on the best estimated model from the randomly selected samples. The other one improves the time performance of the algorithm by utilizing a statistical pretest based on Wald's sequential probability ratio test. The proposed algorithm is successfully evaluated on synthetic and real data, contaminated with varying degrees of outliers, and compared with existing neural network training algorithms.

  14. A new formulation of the probability density function in random walk models for atmospheric dispersion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Falk, Anne Katrine Vinther; Gryning, Sven-Erik

    1997-01-01

    In this model for atmospheric dispersion particles are simulated by the Langevin Equation, which is a stochastic differential equation. It uses the probability density function (PDF) of the vertical velocity fluctuations as input. The PDF is constructed as an expansion after Hermite polynomials. ...

  15. PItcHPERFeCT: Primary Intracranial Hemorrhage Probability Estimation using Random Forests on CT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Muschelli

    2017-01-01

    Results: All results presented are for the 102 scans in the validation set. The median DSI for each model was: 0.89 (logistic, 0.885 (LASSO, 0.88 (GAM, and 0.899 (random forest. Using the random forest results in a slightly higher median DSI compared to the other models. After Bonferroni correction, the hypothesis of equality of median DSI was rejected only when comparing the random forest DSI to the DSI from the logistic (p < 0.001, LASSO (p < 0.001, or GAM (p < 0.001 models. In practical terms the difference between the random forest and the logistic regression is quite small. The correlation (95% CI between the volume from manual segmentation and the predicted volume was 0.93 (0.9,0.95 for the random forest model. These results indicate that random forest approach can achieve accurate segmentation of ICH in a population of patients from a variety of imaging centers. We provide an R package (https://github.com/muschellij2/ichseg and a Shiny R application online (http://johnmuschelli.com/ich_segment_all.html for implementing and testing the proposed approach.

  16. Risk Probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rojas-Nandayapa, Leonardo

    Tail probabilities of sums of heavy-tailed random variables are of a major importance in various branches of Applied Probability, such as Risk Theory, Queueing Theory, Financial Management, and are subject to intense research nowadays. To understand their relevance one just needs to think....... By doing so, we will obtain a deeper insight into how events involving large values of sums of heavy-tailed random variables are likely to occur....

  17. Sampling little fish in big rivers: Larval fish detection probabilities in two Lake Erie tributaries and implications for sampling effort and abundance indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pritt, Jeremy J.; DuFour, Mark R.; Mayer, Christine M.; Roseman, Edward F.; DeBruyne, Robin L.

    2014-01-01

    Larval fish are frequently sampled in coastal tributaries to determine factors affecting recruitment, evaluate spawning success, and estimate production from spawning habitats. Imperfect detection of larvae is common, because larval fish are small and unevenly distributed in space and time, and coastal tributaries are often large and heterogeneous. We estimated detection probabilities of larval fish from several taxa in the Maumee and Detroit rivers, the two largest tributaries of Lake Erie. We then demonstrated how accounting for imperfect detection influenced (1) the probability of observing taxa as present relative to sampling effort and (2) abundance indices for larval fish of two Detroit River species. We found that detection probabilities ranged from 0.09 to 0.91 but were always less than 1.0, indicating that imperfect detection is common among taxa and between systems. In general, taxa with high fecundities, small larval length at hatching, and no nesting behaviors had the highest detection probabilities. Also, detection probabilities were higher in the Maumee River than in the Detroit River. Accounting for imperfect detection produced up to fourfold increases in abundance indices for Lake Whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis and Gizzard Shad Dorosoma cepedianum. The effect of accounting for imperfect detection in abundance indices was greatest during periods of low abundance for both species. Detection information can be used to determine the appropriate level of sampling effort for larval fishes and may improve management and conservation decisions based on larval fish data.

  18. Randomized controlled trials 5: Determining the sample size and power for clinical trials and cohort studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greene, Tom

    2015-01-01

    Performing well-powered randomized controlled trials is of fundamental importance in clinical research. The goal of sample size calculations is to assure that statistical power is acceptable while maintaining a small probability of a type I error. This chapter overviews the fundamentals of sample size calculation for standard types of outcomes for two-group studies. It considers (1) the problems of determining the size of the treatment effect that the studies will be designed to detect, (2) the modifications to sample size calculations to account for loss to follow-up and nonadherence, (3) the options when initial calculations indicate that the feasible sample size is insufficient to provide adequate power, and (4) the implication of using multiple primary endpoints. Sample size estimates for longitudinal cohort studies must take account of confounding by baseline factors.

  19. Random sampling and validation of covariance matrices of resonance parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Plevnik Lucijan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Analytically exact methods for random sampling of arbitrary correlated parameters are presented. Emphasis is given on one hand on the possible inconsistencies in the covariance data, concentrating on the positive semi-definiteness and consistent sampling of correlated inherently positive parameters, and on the other hand on optimization of the implementation of the methods itself. The methods have been applied in the program ENDSAM, written in the Fortran language, which from a file from a nuclear data library of a chosen isotope in ENDF-6 format produces an arbitrary number of new files in ENDF-6 format which contain values of random samples of resonance parameters (in accordance with corresponding covariance matrices in places of original values. The source code for the program ENDSAM is available from the OECD/NEA Data Bank. The program works in the following steps: reads resonance parameters and their covariance data from nuclear data library, checks whether the covariance data is consistent, and produces random samples of resonance parameters. The code has been validated with both realistic and artificial data to show that the produced samples are statistically consistent. Additionally, the code was used to validate covariance data in existing nuclear data libraries. A list of inconsistencies, observed in covariance data of resonance parameters in ENDF-VII.1, JEFF-3.2 and JENDL-4.0 is presented. For now, the work has been limited to resonance parameters, however the methods presented are general and can in principle be extended to sampling and validation of any nuclear data.

  20. Random sampling of elementary flux modes in large-scale metabolic networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machado, Daniel; Soons, Zita; Patil, Kiran Raosaheb; Ferreira, Eugénio C; Rocha, Isabel

    2012-09-15

    The description of a metabolic network in terms of elementary (flux) modes (EMs) provides an important framework for metabolic pathway analysis. However, their application to large networks has been hampered by the combinatorial explosion in the number of modes. In this work, we develop a method for generating random samples of EMs without computing the whole set. Our algorithm is an adaptation of the canonical basis approach, where we add an additional filtering step which, at each iteration, selects a random subset of the new combinations of modes. In order to obtain an unbiased sample, all candidates are assigned the same probability of getting selected. This approach avoids the exponential growth of the number of modes during computation, thus generating a random sample of the complete set of EMs within reasonable time. We generated samples of different sizes for a metabolic network of Escherichia coli, and observed that they preserve several properties of the full EM set. It is also shown that EM sampling can be used for rational strain design. A well distributed sample, that is representative of the complete set of EMs, should be suitable to most EM-based methods for analysis and optimization of metabolic networks. Source code for a cross-platform implementation in Python is freely available at http://code.google.com/p/emsampler. dmachado@deb.uminho.pt Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  1. Spectral shaping of a randomized PWM DC-DC converter using maximum entropy probability distributions

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Dove, Albert

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available stream_source_info Dove_2018.pdf.txt stream_content_type text/plain stream_size 26566 Content-Encoding UTF-8 stream_name Dove_2018.pdf.txt Content-Type text/plain; charset=UTF-8 SPECTRAL SHAPING OF A RANDOMIZED PWM DC... behind spectral shaping is to select a randomization technique with its associated PDF to analytically obtain a specified spectral profile [21]. The benefits of this idea comes in being able to achieve some level of controllability on the spectral content...

  2. Stochastic approximation Monte Carlo importance sampling for approximating exact conditional probabilities

    KAUST Repository

    Cheon, Sooyoung

    2013-02-16

    Importance sampling and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods have been used in exact inference for contingency tables for a long time, however, their performances are not always very satisfactory. In this paper, we propose a stochastic approximation Monte Carlo importance sampling (SAMCIS) method for tackling this problem. SAMCIS is a combination of adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo and importance sampling, which employs the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm (Liang et al., J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 102(477):305-320, 2007) to draw samples from an enlarged reference set with a known Markov basis. Compared to the existing importance sampling and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, SAMCIS has a few advantages, such as fast convergence, ergodicity, and the ability to achieve a desired proportion of valid tables. The numerical results indicate that SAMCIS can outperform the existing importance sampling and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods: It can produce much more accurate estimates in much shorter CPU time than the existing methods, especially for the tables with high degrees of freedom. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

  3. THE PARTIAL SUMS OF THE LEAST SQUARES RESIDUALS OF SPATIAL OBSERVATIONS SAMPLED ACCORDING TO A PROBABILITY MEASURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wayan Somayasa

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available A functional central limit theorem for a sequence of partial sums processes of the least squares residuals of a spatial linear regression model in which the observations are sampled according to a probability measure is established. Under mild assumptions to the model, the limit of the sequence of the least squares residual partial sums processes is explicitly derived. It is shown that the limit process which is a function of the Brownian sheet depends on the regression functions and the probability measure under which the design is constructed. Several examples ofthe limit processes when the model is true are presented. Lower and upper bounds for boundary crossing probabilities of signal plus noise models when the noises come from the residual partial sums processes are also investigated.

  4. Tail probabilities and partial moments for quadratic forms in multivariate generalized hyperbolic random vectors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broda, S.A.

    2013-01-01

    Countless test statistics can be written as quadratic forms in certain random vectors, or ratios thereof. Consequently, their distribution has received considerable attention in the literature. Except for a few special cases, no closed-form expression for the cdf exists, and one resorts to numerical

  5. Is extrapair mating random? On the probability distribution of extrapair young in avian broods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brommer, Jon E.; Korsten, Peter; Bouwman, Karen A.; Berg, Mathew L.; Komdeur, Jan

    2007-01-01

    A dichotomy in female extrapair copulation (EPC) behavior, with some females seeking EPC and others not, is inferred if the observed distribution of extrapair young (EPY) over broods differs from a random process on the level of individual offspring (binomial, hypergeometrical, or Poisson). A review

  6. Men who have sex with men in Great Britain: comparison of a self‐selected internet sample with a national probability sample

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Alison Ruth; Wiggins, Richard D; Mercer, Catherine H; Bolding, Graham J; Elford, Jonathan

    2007-01-01

    Objectives To compare the characteristics of a self‐selected, convenience sample of men who have sex with men (MSM) recruited through the internet with MSM drawn from a national probability survey in Great Britain. Methods The internet sample (n = 2065) was recruited through two popular websites for homosexual men in Great Britain in May and June 2003. This sample was compared with MSM (n = 117) from the National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (Natsal), a probability sample survey of adults resident in Great Britain conducted between May 1999 and February 2001. Results No significant differences were observed between the samples on a range of sociodemographic and behavioural variables (p>0.05). However, men from the internet sample were younger (p<0.001) and more likely to be students (p = 0.001), but less likely to live in London (p = 0.001) or report good health (p = 0.014). Although both samples were equally likely to report testing for HIV, men from the internet sample were more likely to report a sexually transmitted infection in the past year (16.9% v 4.8%, adjusted odds ratio 4.14, 95% CI 1.76 to 9.74; p = 0.001), anal intercourse (76.9% v 63.3%; p = 0.001) and unprotected anal intercourse in the past 3 months (45% v 36.6%; p = 0.064). Conclusions The internet provides a means of recruiting a self‐selected, convenience sample of MSM whose social and demographic characteristics are broadly similar to those of MSM drawn from a national probability survey. However, estimates of high‐risk sexual behaviour based on internet convenience samples are likely to overestimate levels of sexual risk behaviour in the wider MSM population. PMID:17135330

  7. Statistical model for degraded DNA samples and adjusted probabilities for allelic drop-out

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tvedebrink, Torben; Eriksen, Poul Svante; Mogensen, Helle Smidt

    2012-01-01

    DNA samples found at a scene of crime or obtained from the debris of a mass disaster accident are often subject to degradation. When using the STR DNA technology, the DNA profile is observed via a so-called electropherogram (EPG), where the alleles are identified as signal peaks above a certain...

  8. Statistical model for degraded DNA samples and adjusted probabilities for allelic drop-out

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tvedebrink, Torben; Eriksen, Poul Svante; Mogensen, Helle Smidt

    2012-01-01

    Abstract DNA samples found at a scene of crime or obtained from the debris of a mass disaster accident are often subject to degradation. When using the STR DNA technology, the DNA profile is observed via a so-called electropherogram (EPG), where the alleles are identified as signal peaks above...

  9. EVALUATING PROBABILITY SAMPLING STRATEGIES FOR ESTIMATING REDD COUNTS: AN EXAMPLE WITH CHINOOK SALMON (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Precise, unbiased estimates of population size are an essential tool for fisheries management. For a wide variety of salmonid fishes, redd counts from a sample of reaches are commonly used to monitor annual trends in abundance. Using a 9-year time series of georeferenced censuses...

  10. Formulas for Rational-Valued Separability Probabilities of Random Induced Generalized Two-Qubit States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul B. Slater

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Previously, a formula, incorporating a 5F4 hypergeometric function, for the Hilbert-Schmidt-averaged determinantal moments ρPTnρk/ρk of 4×4 density-matrices (ρ and their partial transposes (|ρPT|, was applied with k=0 to the generalized two-qubit separability probability question. The formula can, furthermore, be viewed, as we note here, as an averaging over “induced measures in the space of mixed quantum states.” The associated induced-measure separability probabilities (k=1,2,… are found—via a high-precision density approximation procedure—to assume interesting, relatively simple rational values in the two-re[al]bit (α=1/2, (standard two-qubit (α=1, and two-quater[nionic]bit (α=2 cases. We deduce rather simple companion (rebit, qubit, quaterbit, … formulas that successfully reproduce the rational values assumed for general  k. These formulas are observed to share certain features, possibly allowing them to be incorporated into a single master formula.

  11. Analysis of a global random stratified sample of nurse legislation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benton, D C; Fernández-Fernández, M P; González-Jurado, M A; Beneit-Montesinos, J V

    2015-06-01

    To identify, compare and contrast the major component parts of heterogeneous stratified sample of nursing legislation. Nursing legislation varies from one jurisdiction to another. Up until now no research exists into whether the variations of such legislation are random or if variations are related to a set of key attributes. This mixed method study used a random stratified sample of legislation to map through documentary analysis the content of 14 nursing acts and then explored, using quantitative techniques, whether the material contained relates to a number of key attributes. These attributes include: legal tradition of the jurisdiction; model of regulation; administrative approach; area of the world; and the economic status of the jurisdiction. Twelve component parts of nursing legislation were identified. These were remarkably similar irrespective of attributes of interest. However, not all component parts were specified in the same level of detail and the manner by which the elements were addressed did vary. A number of potential relationships between the structure of the legislation and the key attributes of interest were identified. This study generated a comprehensive and integrated map of a global sample of nursing legislation. It provides a set of descriptors to be used to undertake further quantitative work and provides an important policy tool to facilitate dialogue between regulatory bodies. At the individual nurse level it offers insights that can help nurses pursue recognition of credentials across jurisdictions. © 2015 International Council of Nurses.

  12. Transgender Population Size in the United States: a Meta-Regression of Population-Based Probability Samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meerwijk, Esther L; Sevelius, Jae M

    2017-02-01

    Transgender individuals have a gender identity that differs from the sex they were assigned at birth. The population size of transgender individuals in the United States is not well-known, in part because official records, including the US Census, do not include data on gender identity. Population surveys today more often collect transgender-inclusive gender-identity data, and secular trends in culture and the media have created a somewhat more favorable environment for transgender people. To estimate the current population size of transgender individuals in the United States and evaluate any trend over time. In June and July 2016, we searched PubMed, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, and Web of Science for national surveys, as well as "gray" literature, through an Internet search. We limited the search to 2006 through 2016. We selected population-based surveys that used probability sampling and included self-reported transgender-identity data. We used random-effects meta-analysis to pool eligible surveys and used meta-regression to address our hypothesis that the transgender population size estimate would increase over time. We used subsample and leave-one-out analysis to assess for bias. Our meta-regression model, based on 12 surveys covering 2007 to 2015, explained 62.5% of model heterogeneity, with a significant effect for each unit increase in survey year (F = 17.122; df = 1,10; b = 0.026%; P = .002). Extrapolating these results to 2016 suggested a current US population size of 390 adults per 100 000, or almost 1 million adults nationally. This estimate may be more indicative for younger adults, who represented more than 50% of the respondents in our analysis. Future national surveys are likely to observe higher numbers of transgender people. The large variety in questions used to ask about transgender identity may account for residual heterogeneity in our models. Public health implications. Under- or nonrepresentation

  13. Transgender Population Size in the United States: a Meta-Regression of Population-Based Probability Samples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sevelius, Jae M.

    2017-01-01

    Background. Transgender individuals have a gender identity that differs from the sex they were assigned at birth. The population size of transgender individuals in the United States is not well-known, in part because official records, including the US Census, do not include data on gender identity. Population surveys today more often collect transgender-inclusive gender-identity data, and secular trends in culture and the media have created a somewhat more favorable environment for transgender people. Objectives. To estimate the current population size of transgender individuals in the United States and evaluate any trend over time. Search methods. In June and July 2016, we searched PubMed, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, and Web of Science for national surveys, as well as “gray” literature, through an Internet search. We limited the search to 2006 through 2016. Selection criteria. We selected population-based surveys that used probability sampling and included self-reported transgender-identity data. Data collection and analysis. We used random-effects meta-analysis to pool eligible surveys and used meta-regression to address our hypothesis that the transgender population size estimate would increase over time. We used subsample and leave-one-out analysis to assess for bias. Main results. Our meta-regression model, based on 12 surveys covering 2007 to 2015, explained 62.5% of model heterogeneity, with a significant effect for each unit increase in survey year (F = 17.122; df = 1,10; b = 0.026%; P = .002). Extrapolating these results to 2016 suggested a current US population size of 390 adults per 100 000, or almost 1 million adults nationally. This estimate may be more indicative for younger adults, who represented more than 50% of the respondents in our analysis. Authors’ conclusions. Future national surveys are likely to observe higher numbers of transgender people. The large variety in questions used to ask

  14. Men who have sex with men in Great Britain: comparing methods and estimates from probability and convenience sample surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prah, Philip; Hickson, Ford; Bonell, Chris; McDaid, Lisa M; Johnson, Anne M; Wayal, Sonali; Clifton, Soazig; Sonnenberg, Pam; Nardone, Anthony; Erens, Bob; Copas, Andrew J; Riddell, Julie; Weatherburn, Peter; Mercer, Catherine H

    2016-01-01

    Objective To examine sociodemographic and behavioural differences between men who have sex with men (MSM) participating in recent UK convenience surveys and a national probability sample survey. Methods We compared 148 MSM aged 18–64 years interviewed for Britain's third National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (Natsal-3) undertaken in 2010–2012, with men in the same age range participating in contemporaneous convenience surveys of MSM: 15 500 British resident men in the European MSM Internet Survey (EMIS); 797 in the London Gay Men's Sexual Health Survey; and 1234 in Scotland's Gay Men's Sexual Health Survey. Analyses compared men reporting at least one male sexual partner (past year) on similarly worded questions and multivariable analyses accounted for sociodemographic differences between the surveys. Results MSM in convenience surveys were younger and better educated than MSM in Natsal-3, and a larger proportion identified as gay (85%–95% vs 62%). Partner numbers were higher and same-sex anal sex more common in convenience surveys. Unprotected anal intercourse was more commonly reported in EMIS. Compared with Natsal-3, MSM in convenience surveys were more likely to report gonorrhoea diagnoses and HIV testing (both past year). Differences between the samples were reduced when restricting analysis to gay-identifying MSM. Conclusions National probability surveys better reflect the population of MSM but are limited by their smaller samples of MSM. Convenience surveys recruit larger samples of MSM but tend to over-represent MSM identifying as gay and reporting more sexual risk behaviours. Because both sampling strategies have strengths and weaknesses, methods are needed to triangulate data from probability and convenience surveys. PMID:26965869

  15. On Generating Optimal Signal Probabilities for Random Tests: A Genetic Approach

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    M. Srinivas

    1996-01-01

    Full Text Available Genetic Algorithms are robust search and optimization techniques. A Genetic Algorithm based approach for determining the optimal input distributions for generating random test vectors is proposed in the paper. A cost function based on the COP testability measure for determining the efficacy of the input distributions is discussed. A brief overview of Genetic Algorithms (GAs and the specific details of our implementation are described. Experimental results based on ISCAS-85 benchmark circuits are presented. The performance of our GAbased approach is compared with previous results. While the GA generates more efficient input distributions than the previous methods which are based on gradient descent search, the overheads of the GA in computing the input distributions are larger.

  16. Benzodiazepine-opioid co-prescribing in a national probability sample of ED encounters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Howard S; McCarthy, Danielle M; Mark Courtney, D; Lank, Patrick M; Lambert, Bruce L

    2017-03-01

    Benzodiazepine-opioid combination therapy is potentially harmful due to the risk of synergistic respiratory depression, and the rate of death due to benzodiazepine-opioid overdose is increasing. Little is known about the prevalence and characteristics of benzodiazepine-opioid co-prescribing from the ED setting. Secondary analysis of data from the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey, using sample weights to generate population estimates. The primary objective was to describe the annual prevalence of benzodiazepine-opioid co-prescribing from 2006 to 2012, using 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) to compare adjacent years. The secondary objective was to compare characteristics of ED encounters receiving a benzodiazepine-opioid co-prescription versus those receiving an opioid prescription alone, using a multivariable logistic regression. The prevalence of benzodiazepine-opioid co-prescribing did not significantly change from 2006 to 2012. During this period, 2.7% (95% CI: 2.5-2.8%) of ED encounters prescribed an opioid were also prescribed a benzodiazepine. Relative to encounters receiving an opioid prescription alone, encounters receiving a co-prescription were more likely to represent a follow-up rather than initial visit (Odds Ratio [OR] 1.52), receive more medications (OR 1.41) and fewer procedures (OR 0.48) while in the ED, and more likely to have a diagnosis related to mental disorder (OR 20.60) or musculoskeletal problem (OR 3.71). From 2006 to 2012, almost 3% of all ED encounters receiving an opioid prescription also received a benzodiazepine co-prescription. The odds of benzodiazepine-opioid co-prescribing were significantly higher in ED encounters representing a follow-up visit and in diagnoses relating to a mental disorder or musculoskeletal problem. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Income, education, and inflammation: differential associations in a national probability sample (The MIDUS study).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, Elliot M; Herd, Pamela

    2010-04-01

    To examine the associations between income and education and three markers of inflammation: interleukin-6 (IL-6), C-reactive protein (CRP), and fibrinogen. Socioeconomic status is inversely linked with health outcomes, but the biological processes by which social position "gets under the skin" to affect health are poorly understood. Cross-sectional analyses involved participants (n = 704) from the second wave of the national population-based Survey of Midlife Development in the United States (MIDUS). Data on pretax household-adjusted income and educational attainment were collected by questionnaire and telephone interview, respectively. Detailed medical history interviews, inventories of medication, and fasting blood samples for assessment of inflammatory proteins were obtained during an overnight clinic stay. All three inflammatory proteins were inversely associated with both income and education in bivariate analyses. However, multivariate regression models, adjusting for potential confounds, showed that only low income predicted higher levels of inflammatory proteins. Moreover, inclusion of IL-6 in the regression models for CRP and fibrinogen eliminated the associations with income. These results suggest that income explains the association between education and peripheral inflammation. In short, the reason that higher education is linked to reduced peripheral inflammation is because it reduces the risk for low income status, which is what is directly associated with reduced peripheral inflammation. The findings also suggest that the links between income and both CRP and fibrinogen are mediated by IL-6. These observations help to sharpen our understanding of the relationship between social position and biological markers of illness in the United States.

  18. Frequency format diagram and probability chart for breast cancer risk communication: a prospective, randomized trial

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    Wahner-Roedler Dietlind

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Breast cancer risk education enables women make informed decisions regarding their options for screening and risk reduction. We aimed to determine whether patient education regarding breast cancer risk using a bar graph, with or without a frequency format diagram, improved the accuracy of risk perception. Methods We conducted a prospective, randomized trial among women at increased risk for breast cancer. The main outcome measurement was patients' estimation of their breast cancer risk before and after education with a bar graph (BG group or bar graph plus a frequency format diagram (BG+FF group, which was assessed by previsit and postvisit questionnaires. Results Of 150 women in the study, 74 were assigned to the BG group and 76 to the BG+FF group. Overall, 72% of women overestimated their risk of breast cancer. The improvement in accuracy of risk perception from the previsit to the postvisit questionnaire (BG group, 19% to 61%; BG+FF group, 13% to 67% was not significantly different between the 2 groups (P = .10. Among women who inaccurately perceived very high risk (≥ 50% risk, inaccurate risk perception decreased significantly in the BG+FF group (22% to 3% compared with the BG group (28% to 19% (P = .004. Conclusion Breast cancer risk communication using a bar graph plus a frequency format diagram can improve the short-term accuracy of risk perception among women perceiving inaccurately high risk.

  19. A Combined Weighting Method Based on Hybrid of Interval Evidence Fusion and Random Sampling

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    Ying Yan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Due to the complexity of system and lack of expertise, epistemic uncertainties may present in the experts’ judgment on the importance of certain indices during group decision-making. A novel combination weighting method is proposed to solve the index weighting problem when various uncertainties are present in expert comments. Based on the idea of evidence theory, various types of uncertain evaluation information are uniformly expressed through interval evidence structures. Similarity matrix between interval evidences is constructed, and expert’s information is fused. Comment grades are quantified using the interval number, and cumulative probability function for evaluating the importance of indices is constructed based on the fused information. Finally, index weights are obtained by Monte Carlo random sampling. The method can process expert’s information with varying degrees of uncertainties, which possesses good compatibility. Difficulty in effectively fusing high-conflict group decision-making information and large information loss after fusion is avertible. Original expert judgments are retained rather objectively throughout the processing procedure. Cumulative probability function constructing and random sampling processes do not require any human intervention or judgment. It can be implemented by computer programs easily, thus having an apparent advantage in evaluation practices of fairly huge index systems.

  20. Randomly Sampled-Data Control Systems. Ph.D. Thesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Kuoruey

    1990-01-01

    The purpose is to solve the Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) problem with random time sampling. Such a sampling scheme may arise from imperfect instrumentation as in the case of sampling jitter. It can also model the stochastic information exchange among decentralized controllers to name just a few. A practical suboptimal controller is proposed with the nice property of mean square stability. The proposed controller is suboptimal in the sense that the control structure is limited to be linear. Because of i. i. d. assumption, this does not seem unreasonable. Once the control structure is fixed, the stochastic discrete optimal control problem is transformed into an equivalent deterministic optimal control problem with dynamics described by the matrix difference equation. The N-horizon control problem is solved using the Lagrange's multiplier method. The infinite horizon control problem is formulated as a classical minimization problem. Assuming existence of solution to the minimization problem, the total system is shown to be mean square stable under certain observability conditions. Computer simulations are performed to illustrate these conditions.

  1. A Table-Based Random Sampling Simulation for Bioluminescence Tomography

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    Xiaomeng Zhang

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available As a popular simulation of photon propagation in turbid media, the main problem of Monte Carlo (MC method is its cumbersome computation. In this work a table-based random sampling simulation (TBRS is proposed. The key idea of TBRS is to simplify multisteps of scattering to a single-step process, through randomly table querying, thus greatly reducing the computing complexity of the conventional MC algorithm and expediting the computation. The TBRS simulation is a fast algorithm of the conventional MC simulation of photon propagation. It retained the merits of flexibility and accuracy of conventional MC method and adapted well to complex geometric media and various source shapes. Both MC simulations were conducted in a homogeneous medium in our work. Also, we present a reconstructing approach to estimate the position of the fluorescent source based on the trial-and-error theory as a validation of the TBRS algorithm. Good agreement is found between the conventional MC simulation and the TBRS simulation.

  2. A method for acquiring random range uncertainty probability distributions in proton therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holloway, S. M.; Holloway, M. D.; Thomas, S. J.

    2018-01-01

    In treatment planning we depend upon accurate knowledge of geometric and range uncertainties. If the uncertainty model is inaccurate then the plan will produce under-dosing of the target and/or overdosing of OAR. We aim to provide a method for which centre and site-specific population range uncertainty due to inter-fraction motion can be quantified to improve the uncertainty model in proton treatment planning. Daily volumetric MVCT data from previously treated radiotherapy patients has been used to investigate inter-fraction changes to water equivalent path-length (WEPL). Daily image-guidance scans were carried out for each patient and corrected for changes in CTV position (using rigid transformations). An effective depth algorithm was used to determine residual range changes, after corrections had been applied, throughout the treatment by comparing WEPL within the CTV at each fraction for several beam angles. As a proof of principle this method was used to quantify uncertainties for inter-fraction range changes for a sample of head and neck patients of Σ=3.39 mm, σ = 4.72 mm and overall mean = -1.82 mm. For prostate Σ=5.64 mm, σ = 5.91 mm and overall mean = 0.98 mm. The choice of beam angle for head and neck did not affect the inter-fraction range error significantly; however this was not the same for prostate. Greater range changes were seen using a lateral beam compared to an anterior beam for prostate due to relative motion of the prostate and femoral heads. A method has been developed to quantify population range changes due to inter-fraction motion that can be adapted for the clinic. The results of this work highlight the importance of robust planning and analysis in proton therapy. Such information could be used in robust optimisation algorithms or treatment plan robustness analysis. Such knowledge will aid in establishing beam start conditions at planning and for establishing adaptive planning protocols.

  3. Influence of sampling intake position on suspended solid measurements in sewers: two probability/time-series-based approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandoval, Santiago; Bertrand-Krajewski, Jean-Luc

    2016-06-01

    Total suspended solid (TSS) measurements in urban drainage systems are required for several reasons. Aiming to assess uncertainties in the mean TSS concentration due to the influence of sampling intake vertical position and vertical concentration gradients in a sewer pipe, two methods are proposed: a simplified method based on a theoretical vertical concentration profile (SM) and a time series grouping method (TSM). SM is based on flow rate and water depth time series. TSM requires additional TSS time series as input data. All time series are from the Chassieu urban catchment in Lyon, France (time series from 2007 with 2-min time step, 89 rainfall events). The probability of measuring a TSS value lower than the mean TSS along the vertical cross section (TSS underestimation) is about 0.88 with SM and about 0.64 with TSM. TSM shows more realistic TSS underestimation values (about 39 %) than SM (about 269 %). Interquartile ranges (IQR) over the probability values indicate that SM is more uncertain (IQR = 0.08) than TSM (IQR = 0.02). Differences between the two methods are mainly due to simplifications in SM (absence of TSS measurements). SM assumes a significant asymmetry of the TSS concentration profile along the vertical axis in the cross section. This is compatible with the distribution of TSS measurements found in the TSM approach. The methods provide insights towards an indicator of the measurement performance and representativeness for a TSS sampling protocol.

  4. Aerobic Exercise Increases Hippocampal Volume in Older Women with Probable Mild Cognitive Impairment: A 6-Month Randomized Controlled Trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    ten Brinke, Lisanne F.; Bolandzadeh, Niousha; Nagamatsu, Lindsay S.; Hsu, Chun Liang; Davis, Jennifer C.; Miran-Khan, Karim; Liu-Ambrose, Teresa

    2015-01-01

    Background Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is a well-recognized risk factor for dementia and represents a vital opportunity for intervening. Exercise is a promising strategy for combating cognitive decline, by improving both brain structure and function. Specifically, aerobic training (AT) improved spatial memory and hippocampal volume in healthy community-dwelling older adults. In older women with probable MCI, we previously demonstrated that both resistance training (RT) and AT improved memory. In this secondary analysis, we investigated: 1) the effect of both RT and AT on hippocampal volume; and 2) the association between change in hippocampal volume and change in memory. Methods Eighty-six females aged 70 to 80 years with probable MCI were randomly assigned to a six-month, twice-weekly program of: 1) AT, 2) RT, or 3) Balance and Tone Training (BAT; i.e., control). At baseline and trial completion, participants performed a 3T magnetic resonance imaging scan to determine hippocampal volume. Verbal memory and learning was assessed by Rey’s Auditory Verbal Learning Test. Results Compared with the BAT group, AT significantly improved left, right, and total hippocampal volumes (p≤0.03). After accounting for baseline cognitive function and experimental group, increased left hippocampal volume was independently associated with reduced verbal memory and learning performance as indexed by loss after interference (r=0.42, p=0.03). Conclusion Aerobic training significantly increased hippocampal volume in older women with probable MCI. More research is needed to ascertain the relevance of exercise-induced changes in hippocampal volume on memory performance in older adults with MCI. PMID:24711660

  5. Notes on interval estimation of the generalized odds ratio under stratified random sampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lui, Kung-Jong; Chang, Kuang-Chao

    2013-05-01

    It is not rare to encounter the patient response on the ordinal scale in a randomized clinical trial (RCT). Under the assumption that the generalized odds ratio (GOR) is homogeneous across strata, we consider four asymptotic interval estimators for the GOR under stratified random sampling. These include the interval estimator using the weighted-least-squares (WLS) approach with the logarithmic transformation (WLSL), the interval estimator using the Mantel-Haenszel (MH) type of estimator with the logarithmic transformation (MHL), the interval estimator using Fieller's theorem with the MH weights (FTMH) and the interval estimator using Fieller's theorem with the WLS weights (FTWLS). We employ Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the performance of these interval estimators by calculating the coverage probability and the average length. To study the bias of these interval estimators, we also calculate and compare the noncoverage probabilities in the two tails of the resulting confidence intervals. We find that WLSL and MHL can generally perform well, while FTMH and FTWLS can lose either precision or accuracy. We further find that MHL is likely the least biased. Finally, we use the data taken from a study of smoking status and breathing test among workers in certain industrial plants in Houston, Texas, during 1974 to 1975 to illustrate the use of these interval estimators.

  6. Modeling Latin-American stock markets volatility: Varying probabilities and mean reversion in a random level shift model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Rodríguez

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Following Xu and Perron (2014, I applied the extended RLS model to the daily stock market returns of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Peru. This model replaces the constant probability of level shifts for the entire sample with varying probabilities that record periods with extremely negative returns. Furthermore, it incorporates a mean reversion mechanism with which the magnitude and the sign of the level shift component vary in accordance with past level shifts that deviate from the long-term mean. Therefore, four RLS models are estimated: the Basic RLS, the RLS with varying probabilities, the RLS with mean reversion, and a combined RLS model with mean reversion and varying probabilities. The results show that the estimated parameters are highly significant, especially that of the mean reversion model. An analysis of ARFIMA and GARCH models is also performed in the presence of level shifts, which shows that once these shifts are taken into account in the modeling, the long memory characteristics and GARCH effects disappear. Also, I find that the performance prediction of the RLS models is superior to the classic models involving long memory as the ARFIMA(p,d,q models, the GARCH and the FIGARCH models. The evidence indicates that except in rare exceptions, the RLS models (in all its variants are showing the best performance or belong to the 10% of the Model Confidence Set (MCS. On rare occasions the GARCH and the ARFIMA models appear to dominate but they are rare exceptions. When the volatility is measured by the squared returns, the great exception is Argentina where a dominance of GARCH and FIGARCH models is appreciated.

  7. Probability-1

    CERN Document Server

    Shiryaev, Albert N

    2016-01-01

    This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, the measure-theoretic foundations of probability theory, weak convergence of probability measures, and the central limit theorem. Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises. The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for independent study. To accommodate the greatly expanded material in the third edition of Probability, the book is now divided into two volumes. This first volume contains updated references and substantial revisions of the first three chapters of the second edition. In particular, new material has been added on generating functions, the inclusion-exclusion principle, theorems on monotonic classes (relying on a detailed treatment of “π-λ” systems), and the fundamental theorems of mathematical statistics.

  8. Risky sex- and drug-seeking in a probability sample of men-for-men online bulletin board postings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grov, Christian

    2010-12-01

    There has been limited research on men who have sex with men's postings in online sex-seeking bulletin boards. This study uses a probability sample of 1,438 advertisements ostensibly posted by men-seeking-men in the New York City section of Craigslist.org. Ad's qualitative text were coded for various sex- and drug-seeking behaviors. The proportion of ads seeking unprotected/uninhibited sex (3.0%) and party-n-play (i.e., sex/drug) encounters (4.2%) was low. In contrast, 12.7% of postings specified safe sex encounters, and 17.5% of postings specified that they were "drug and disease free." Prevalence of certain behaviors varied by time that ads were posted. Implications for health/community service providers are discussed.

  9. Most probable number with visual based LAMP for the quantification of reductive dehalogenase genes in groundwater samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanitkar, Yogendra H; Stedtfeld, Robert D; Hatzinger, Paul B; Hashsham, Syed A; Cupples, Alison M

    2017-12-01

    The remediation of chlorinated solvent contaminated sites frequently involves bioaugmentation with mixed cultures containing Dehalococcoides mccartyi. Their activity is then examined by quantifying reductive dehalogenase (RDase) genes. Recently, we described a rapid, low cost approach, based on loop mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP), which allowed for the visual detection of RDase genes from groundwater. In that study, samples were concentrated (without DNA extraction), incubated in a water bath (avoiding the use of a thermal cycler) and amplification was visualized by the addition of SYBR green (post incubation). Despite having a detection limit less than the threshold recommended for effective remediation, the application of the assay was limited because of the semi-quantitative nature of the data. Moreover, the assay was prone to false positives due to the aerosolization of amplicons. In this study, deoxyuridine triphosphate (dUTP) and uracil DNA glycosylase (UNG) were incorporated into the assay to reduce the probability of false positives. Optimization experiments revealed a UNG concentration of 0.2units per reaction was adequate for degrading trace levels of AUGC based contamination (~1.4×104 gene copies/reaction) without significant changes to the detection limit (~100 gene copies/reaction). Additionally, the optimized assay was used with the most probable number (MPN) method to quantify RDase genes (vcrA and tceA) in multiple groundwater samples from a chlorinated solvent contaminated site. Using this approach, gene concentrations were significantly correlated to concentrations obtained using traditional methods (qPCR and DNA templates). Although the assay underestimated RDase genes concentrations, a strong correlation (R2=0.78 and 0.94) was observed between the two data sets. The regression equations obtained will be valuable to determine gene copies in groundwater using the newly developed, low cost and time saving method. Copyright © 2017

  10. Attitudes toward Bisexual Men and Women among a Nationally Representative Probability Sample of Adults in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herbenick, Debby; Friedman, M. Reuel; Schick, Vanessa; Fu, Tsung-Chieh (Jane); Bostwick, Wendy; Bartelt, Elizabeth; Muñoz-Laboy, Miguel; Pletta, David; Reece, Michael; Sandfort, Theo G. M.

    2016-01-01

    As bisexual individuals in the United States (U.S.) face significant health disparities, researchers have posited that these differences may be fueled, at least in part, by negative attitudes, prejudice, stigma, and discrimination toward bisexual individuals from heterosexual and gay/lesbian individuals. Previous studies of individual and social attitudes toward bisexual men and women have been conducted almost exclusively with convenience samples, with limited generalizability to the broader U.S. population. Our study provides an assessment of attitudes toward bisexual men and women among a nationally representative probability sample of heterosexual, gay, lesbian, and other-identified adults in the U.S. Data were collected from the 2015 National Survey of Sexual Health and Behavior (NSSHB), via an online questionnaire with a probability sample of adults (18 years and over) from throughout the U.S. We included two modified 5-item versions of the Bisexualities: Indiana Attitudes Scale (BIAS), validated sub-scales that were developed to measure attitudes toward bisexual men and women. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, gamma regression, and paired t-tests. Gender, sexual identity, age, race/ethnicity, income, and educational attainment were all significantly associated with participants' attitudes toward bisexual individuals. In terms of responses to individual scale items, participants were most likely to “neither agree nor disagree” with all attitudinal statements. Across sexual identities, self-identified other participants reported the most positive attitudes, while heterosexual male participants reported the least positive attitudes. As in previous research on convenience samples, we found a wide range of demographic characteristics were related with attitudes toward bisexual individuals in our nationally-representative study of heterosexual, gay/lesbian, and other-identified adults in the U.S. In particular, gender emerged as a significant

  11. Attitudes toward Bisexual Men and Women among a Nationally Representative Probability Sample of Adults in the United States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian Dodge

    Full Text Available As bisexual individuals in the United States (U.S. face significant health disparities, researchers have posited that these differences may be fueled, at least in part, by negative attitudes, prejudice, stigma, and discrimination toward bisexual individuals from heterosexual and gay/lesbian individuals. Previous studies of individual and social attitudes toward bisexual men and women have been conducted almost exclusively with convenience samples, with limited generalizability to the broader U.S.Our study provides an assessment of attitudes toward bisexual men and women among a nationally representative probability sample of heterosexual, gay, lesbian, and other-identified adults in the U.S. Data were collected from the 2015 National Survey of Sexual Health and Behavior (NSSHB, via an online questionnaire with a probability sample of adults (18 years and over from throughout the U.S. We included two modified 5-item versions of the Bisexualities: Indiana Attitudes Scale (BIAS, validated sub-scales that were developed to measure attitudes toward bisexual men and women. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, gamma regression, and paired t-tests. Gender, sexual identity, age, race/ethnicity, income, and educational attainment were all significantly associated with participants' attitudes toward bisexual individuals. In terms of responses to individual scale items, participants were most likely to "neither agree nor disagree" with all attitudinal statements. Across sexual identities, self-identified other participants reported the most positive attitudes, while heterosexual male participants reported the least positive attitudes. As in previous research on convenience samples, we found a wide range of demographic characteristics were related with attitudes toward bisexual individuals in our nationally-representative study of heterosexual, gay/lesbian, and other-identified adults in the U.S. In particular, gender emerged as a significant

  12. Random walks on three-strand braids and on related hyperbolic groups 05.40.-a Fluctuation phenomena, random processes, noise, and Brownian motion; 02.50.-r Probability theory, stochastic processes, and statistics; 02.40.Ky Riemannian geometries;

    CERN Document Server

    Nechaev, S

    2003-01-01

    We investigate the statistical properties of random walks on the simplest nontrivial braid group B sub 3 , and on related hyperbolic groups. We provide a method using Cayley graphs of groups allowing us to compute explicitly the probability distribution of the basic statistical characteristics of random trajectories - the drift and the return probability. The action of the groups under consideration in the hyperbolic plane is investigated, and the distribution of a geometric invariant - the hyperbolic distance - is analysed. It is shown that a random walk on B sub 3 can be viewed as a 'magnetic random walk' on the group PSL(2, Z).

  13. Random walks on three-strand braids and on related hyperbolic groups[05.40.-a Fluctuation phenomena, random processes, noise, and Brownian motion; 02.50.-r Probability theory, stochastic processes, and statistics; 02.40.Ky Riemannian geometries;

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nechaev, Sergei [Laboratoire de Physique Theorique et Modeles Statistiques, Universite Paris Sud, 91405 Orsay Cedex (France); Voituriez, Raphael [Laboratoire de Physique Theorique et Modeles Statistiques, Universite Paris Sud, 91405 Orsay Cedex (France)

    2003-01-10

    We investigate the statistical properties of random walks on the simplest nontrivial braid group B{sub 3}, and on related hyperbolic groups. We provide a method using Cayley graphs of groups allowing us to compute explicitly the probability distribution of the basic statistical characteristics of random trajectories - the drift and the return probability. The action of the groups under consideration in the hyperbolic plane is investigated, and the distribution of a geometric invariant - the hyperbolic distance - is analysed. It is shown that a random walk on B{sub 3} can be viewed as a 'magnetic random walk' on the group PSL(2, Z)

  14. Evaluation of a Class of Simple and Effective Uncertainty Methods for Sparse Samples of Random Variables and Functions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Romero, Vicente [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Bonney, Matthew [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Schroeder, Benjamin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Weirs, V. Gregory [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-11-01

    When very few samples of a random quantity are available from a source distribution of unknown shape, it is usually not possible to accurately infer the exact distribution from which the data samples come. Under-estimation of important quantities such as response variance and failure probabilities can result. For many engineering purposes, including design and risk analysis, we attempt to avoid under-estimation with a strategy to conservatively estimate (bound) these types of quantities -- without being overly conservative -- when only a few samples of a random quantity are available from model predictions or replicate experiments. This report examines a class of related sparse-data uncertainty representation and inference approaches that are relatively simple, inexpensive, and effective. Tradeoffs between the methods' conservatism, reliability, and risk versus number of data samples (cost) are quantified with multi-attribute metrics use d to assess method performance for conservative estimation of two representative quantities: central 95% of response; and 10-4 probability of exceeding a response threshold in a tail of the distribution. Each method's performance is characterized with 10,000 random trials on a large number of diverse and challenging distributions. The best method and number of samples to use in a given circumstance depends on the uncertainty quantity to be estimated, the PDF character, and the desired reliability of bounding the true value. On the basis of this large data base and study, a strategy is proposed for selecting the method and number of samples for attaining reasonable credibility levels in bounding these types of quantities when sparse samples of random variables or functions are available from experiments or simulations.

  15. Demographic, Psychological, and Social Characteristics of Self-Identified Lesbian, Gay, and Bisexual Adults in a US Probability Sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herek, Gregory M; Norton, Aaron T; Allen, Thomas J; Sims, Charles L

    2010-09-01

    Using data from a US national probability sample of self-identified lesbian, gay, and bisexual adults (N = 662), this article reports population parameter estimates for a variety of demographic, psychological, and social variables. Special emphasis is given to information with relevance to public policy and law. Compared with the US adult population, respondents were younger, more highly educated, and less likely to be non-Hispanic White, but differences were observed between gender and sexual orientation groups on all of these variables. Overall, respondents tended to be politically liberal, not highly religious, and supportive of marriage equality for same-sex couples. Women were more likely than men to be in a committed relationship. Virtually all coupled gay men and lesbians had a same-sex partner, whereas the vast majority of coupled bisexuals were in a heterosexual relationship. Compared with bisexuals, gay men and lesbians reported stronger commitment to a sexual-minority identity, greater community identification and involvement, and more extensive disclosure of their sexual orientation to others. Most respondents reported experiencing little or no choice about their sexual orientation. The importance of distinguishing among lesbians, gay men, bisexual women, and bisexual men in behavioral and social research is discussed.

  16. Self-injury, substance use, and associated risk factors in a multi-campus probability sample of college students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serras, Alisha; Saules, Karen K; Cranford, James A; Eisenberg, Daniel

    2010-03-01

    This research examined two questions: (1) What is the prevalence of self-injurious behavior (SIB) among college students, overall and by gender, academic level, and sexual orientation? (2) To what extent is SIB associated with different forms of substance use and other risk behaviors? A probability sample of 5,689 students completed an Internet survey on self-injury, mental health, and substance use. Past-year prevalence of SIB was 14.3%, with undergraduates significantly more likely than graduate students to engage in SIB. Drug use and frequent binge drinking were associated with higher rates of SIB. Among those who engaged in any SIB, those who used drugs had higher depression scores, higher prevalence of cigarette smoking, and higher rates of binge eating. In a multiple logistic regression model predicting SIB, depression, cigarette smoking, gambling, and drug use were significant predictors. Information about those at risk for SIB is critical for the design of prevention and intervention efforts as colleges continue to grapple with risky behaviors.

  17. Substance use behaviors, mental health problems, and use of mental health services in a probability sample of college students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cranford, James A; Eisenberg, Daniel; Serras, Alisha M

    2009-02-01

    This research examined 1) the prevalence of substance use behaviors in college students, 2) gender and academic level as moderators of the associations between mental health problems and substance use, and 3) mental health service use among those with co-occurring frequent binge drinking and mental health problems. As part of the Healthy Minds Study, a probability sample of 2843 college students completed an Internet survey on mental health problems, substance use behaviors, and utilization of mental health care. Response propensity weights were used to adjust for differences between respondents and non-respondents. Major depression, panic disorder, and generalized anxiety disorder were positively associated with cigarette smoking. Frequent binge drinking was negatively associated with major depression and positively associated with generalized anxiety disorder, and these associations were significantly stronger for males than females. Among students with co-occurring frequent binge drinking and mental health problems, 67% perceived a need for mental health services but only 38% received services in the previous year. There may be substantial unmet needs for treatment of mental health problems and substance use among college students.

  18. Discovery of a Partner Affair and Major Depressive Episode in a Probability Sample of Married or Cohabiting Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whisman, Mark A

    2016-12-01

    Prior research has found that humiliating marital events are associated with depression. Building on this research, the current study investigated the association between one specific humiliating marital event-discovering that one's partner had an affair-and past-year major depressive episode (MDE) in a probability sample of married or cohabiting men and women who were at high risk for depression based on the criterion that they scored below the midpoint on a measure of marital satisfaction (N = 227). Results indicate that (i) women were more likely than men to report discovering their partner had an affair in the prior 12 months; (ii) discovering a partner affair was associated with a higher prevalence of past-year MDE and a lower level of marital adjustment; and (iii) the association between discovering a partner affair and MDE remained statistically significant when holding constant demographic variables and marital adjustment. These results support continued investigation into the impact that finding out about an affair has on the mental health of the person discovering a partner affair. © 2015 Family Process Institute.

  19. Soil map disaggregation improved by soil-landscape relationships, area-proportional sampling and random forest implementation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Anders Bjørn; Malone, Brendan P.; Odgers, Nathan

    algorithm were evaluated. The resulting maps were validated on 777 soil profiles situated in a grid covering Denmark. The experiments showed that the results obtained with Jacobsen’s map were more accurate than the results obtained with the CEC map, despite a nominally coarser scale of 1:2,000,000 vs. 1...... of European Communities (CEC, 1985) respectively, both using the FAO 1974 classification. Furthermore, the effects of implementing soil-landscape relationships, using area proportional sampling instead of per polygon sampling, and replacing the default C5.0 classification tree algorithm with a random forest......:1,000,000. This finding is probably related to the fact that Jacobsen’s map was more detailed with a larger number of polygons, soil map units and soil types, despite its coarser scale. The results showed that the implementation of soil-landscape relationships, area-proportional sampling and the random forest...

  20. RANdom SAmple Consensus (RANSAC) algorithm for material-informatics: application to photovoltaic solar cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaspi, Omer; Yosipof, Abraham; Senderowitz, Hanoch

    2017-06-06

    An important aspect of chemoinformatics and material-informatics is the usage of machine learning algorithms to build Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship (QSAR) models. The RANdom SAmple Consensus (RANSAC) algorithm is a predictive modeling tool widely used in the image processing field for cleaning datasets from noise. RANSAC could be used as a "one stop shop" algorithm for developing and validating QSAR models, performing outlier removal, descriptors selection, model development and predictions for test set samples using applicability domain. For "future" predictions (i.e., for samples not included in the original test set) RANSAC provides a statistical estimate for the probability of obtaining reliable predictions, i.e., predictions within a pre-defined number of standard deviations from the true values. In this work we describe the first application of RNASAC in material informatics, focusing on the analysis of solar cells. We demonstrate that for three datasets representing different metal oxide (MO) based solar cell libraries RANSAC-derived models select descriptors previously shown to correlate with key photovoltaic properties and lead to good predictive statistics for these properties. These models were subsequently used to predict the properties of virtual solar cells libraries highlighting interesting dependencies of PV properties on MO compositions.

  1. Sample size calculations for 3-level cluster randomized trials

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teerenstra, S.; Moerbeek, M.; Achterberg, T. van; Pelzer, B.J.; Borm, G.F.

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The first applications of cluster randomized trials with three instead of two levels are beginning to appear in health research, for instance, in trials where different strategies to implement best-practice guidelines are compared. In such trials, the strategy is implemented in health

  2. Sample size calculations for 3-level cluster randomized trials

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teerenstra, S.; Moerbeek, M.; Achterberg, T. van; Pelzer, B.J.; Borm, G.F.

    2008-01-01

    Background The first applications of cluster randomized trials with three instead of two levels are beginning to appear in health research, for instance, in trials where different strategies to implement best-practice guidelines are compared. In such trials, the strategy is implemented in health

  3. CAN'T MISS--conquer any number task by making important statistics simple. Part 2. Probability, populations, samples, and normal distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, John P

    2003-01-01

    Healthcare quality improvement professionals need to understand and use inferential statistics to interpret sample data from their organizations. In quality improvement and healthcare research studies all the data from a population often are not available, so investigators take samples and make inferences about the population by using inferential statistics. This three-part series will give readers an understanding of the concepts of inferential statistics as well as the specific tools for calculating confidence intervals for samples of data. This article, Part 2, describes probability, populations, and samples. The uses of descriptive and inferential statistics are outlined. The article also discusses the properties and probability of normal distributions, including the standard normal distribution.

  4. Improved estimator of finite population mean using auxiliary attribute in stratified random sampling

    OpenAIRE

    Verma, Hemant K.; Sharma, Prayas; Singh, Rajesh

    2014-01-01

    The present study discuss the problem of estimating the finite population mean using auxiliary attribute in stratified random sampling. In this paper taking the advantage of point bi-serial correlation between the study variable and auxiliary attribute, we have improved the estimation of population mean in stratified random sampling. The expressions for Bias and Mean square error have been derived under stratified random sampling. In addition, an empirical study has been carried out to examin...

  5. A Family of Estimators of a Sensitive Variable Using Auxiliary Information in Stratified Random Sampling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadia Mushtaq

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available In this article, a combined general family of estimators is proposed for estimating finite population mean of a sensitive variable in stratified random sampling with non-sensitive auxiliary variable based on randomized response technique. Under stratified random sampling without replacement scheme, the expression of bias and mean square error (MSE up to the first-order approximations are derived. Theoretical and empirical results through a simulation study show that the proposed class of estimators is more efficient than the existing estimators, i.e., usual stratified random sample mean estimator, Sousa et al (2014 ratio and regression estimator of the sensitive variable in stratified sampling.

  6. Probability estimation of rare extreme events in the case of small samples: Technique and examples of analysis of earthquake catalogs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pisarenko, V. F.; Rodkin, M. V.; Rukavishnikova, T. A.

    2017-11-01

    The most general approach to studying the recurrence law in the area of the rare largest events is associated with the use of limit law theorems of the theory of extreme values. In this paper, we use the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). The unknown GPD parameters are typically determined by the method of maximal likelihood (ML). However, the ML estimation is only optimal for the case of fairly large samples (>200-300), whereas in many practical important cases, there are only dozens of large events. It is shown that in the case of a small number of events, the highest accuracy in the case of using the GPD is provided by the method of quantiles (MQs). In order to illustrate the obtained methodical results, we have formed the compiled data sets characterizing the tails of the distributions for typical subduction zones, regions of intracontinental seismicity, and for the zones of midoceanic (MO) ridges. This approach paves the way for designing a new method for seismic risk assessment. Here, instead of the unstable characteristics—the uppermost possible magnitude M max—it is recommended to use the quantiles of the distribution of random maxima for a future time interval. The results of calculating such quantiles are presented.

  7. Probability machines: consistent probability estimation using nonparametric learning machines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malley, J D; Kruppa, J; Dasgupta, A; Malley, K G; Ziegler, A

    2012-01-01

    Most machine learning approaches only provide a classification for binary responses. However, probabilities are required for risk estimation using individual patient characteristics. It has been shown recently that every statistical learning machine known to be consistent for a nonparametric regression problem is a probability machine that is provably consistent for this estimation problem. The aim of this paper is to show how random forests and nearest neighbors can be used for consistent estimation of individual probabilities. Two random forest algorithms and two nearest neighbor algorithms are described in detail for estimation of individual probabilities. We discuss the consistency of random forests, nearest neighbors and other learning machines in detail. We conduct a simulation study to illustrate the validity of the methods. We exemplify the algorithms by analyzing two well-known data sets on the diagnosis of appendicitis and the diagnosis of diabetes in Pima Indians. Simulations demonstrate the validity of the method. With the real data application, we show the accuracy and practicality of this approach. We provide sample code from R packages in which the probability estimation is already available. This means that all calculations can be performed using existing software. Random forest algorithms as well as nearest neighbor approaches are valid machine learning methods for estimating individual probabilities for binary responses. Freely available implementations are available in R and may be used for applications.

  8. Probability Machines: Consistent Probability Estimation Using Nonparametric Learning Machines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malley, J. D.; Kruppa, J.; Dasgupta, A.; Malley, K. G.; Ziegler, A.

    2011-01-01

    Summary Background Most machine learning approaches only provide a classification for binary responses. However, probabilities are required for risk estimation using individual patient characteristics. It has been shown recently that every statistical learning machine known to be consistent for a nonparametric regression problem is a probability machine that is provably consistent for this estimation problem. Objectives The aim of this paper is to show how random forests and nearest neighbors can be used for consistent estimation of individual probabilities. Methods Two random forest algorithms and two nearest neighbor algorithms are described in detail for estimation of individual probabilities. We discuss the consistency of random forests, nearest neighbors and other learning machines in detail. We conduct a simulation study to illustrate the validity of the methods. We exemplify the algorithms by analyzing two well-known data sets on the diagnosis of appendicitis and the diagnosis of diabetes in Pima Indians. Results Simulations demonstrate the validity of the method. With the real data application, we show the accuracy and practicality of this approach. We provide sample code from R packages in which the probability estimation is already available. This means that all calculations can be performed using existing software. Conclusions Random forest algorithms as well as nearest neighbor approaches are valid machine learning methods for estimating individual probabilities for binary responses. Freely available implementations are available in R and may be used for applications. PMID:21915433

  9. Probability an introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Goldberg, Samuel

    1960-01-01

    Excellent basic text covers set theory, probability theory for finite sample spaces, binomial theorem, probability distributions, means, standard deviations, probability function of binomial distribution, more. Includes 360 problems with answers for half.

  10. Computer Corner: A Note on Pascal's Triangle and Simple Random Sampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Tommy

    1989-01-01

    Describes the algorithm used to select a simple random sample of certain size without having to list all possible samples and a justification based on Pascal's triangle. Provides testing results by various computers. (YP)

  11. Classroom Research: Assessment of Student Understanding of Sampling Distributions of Means and the Central Limit Theorem in Post-Calculus Probability and Statistics Classes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lunsford, M. Leigh; Rowell, Ginger Holmes; Goodson-Espy, Tracy

    2006-01-01

    We applied a classroom research model to investigate student understanding of sampling distributions of sample means and the Central Limit Theorem in post-calculus introductory probability and statistics courses. Using a quantitative assessment tool developed by previous researchers and a qualitative assessment tool developed by the authors, we…

  12. Bayesian Probability Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    von der Linden, Wolfgang; Dose, Volker; von Toussaint, Udo

    2014-06-01

    Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Basic definitions; 3. Bayesian inference; 4. Combinatrics; 5. Random walks; 6. Limit theorems; 7. Continuous distributions; 8. The central limit theorem; 9. Poisson processes and waiting times; Part II. Assigning Probabilities: 10. Transformation invariance; 11. Maximum entropy; 12. Qualified maximum entropy; 13. Global smoothness; Part III. Parameter Estimation: 14. Bayesian parameter estimation; 15. Frequentist parameter estimation; 16. The Cramer-Rao inequality; Part IV. Testing Hypotheses: 17. The Bayesian way; 18. The frequentist way; 19. Sampling distributions; 20. Bayesian vs frequentist hypothesis tests; Part V. Real World Applications: 21. Regression; 22. Inconsistent data; 23. Unrecognized signal contributions; 24. Change point problems; 25. Function estimation; 26. Integral equations; 27. Model selection; 28. Bayesian experimental design; Part VI. Probabilistic Numerical Techniques: 29. Numerical integration; 30. Monte Carlo methods; 31. Nested sampling; Appendixes; References; Index.

  13. Exponential ratio-product type estimators under second order approximation in stratified random sampling

    OpenAIRE

    Singh, Rajesh; Sharma, Prayas; Smarandache, Florentin

    2014-01-01

    Singh et al (20009) introduced a family of exponential ratio and product type estimators in stratified random sampling. Under stratified random sampling without replacement scheme, the expressions of bias and mean square error (MSE) of Singh et al (2009) and some other estimators, up to the first- and second-order approximations are derived. Also, the theoretical findings are supported by a numerical example.

  14. Random Photon Absorption Model Elucidates How Early Gain Control in Fly Photoreceptors Arises from Quantal Sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Zhuoyi; Zhou, Yu; Juusola, Mikko

    2016-01-01

    Many diurnal photoreceptors encode vast real-world light changes effectively, but how this performance originates from photon sampling is unclear. A 4-module biophysically-realistic fly photoreceptor model, in which information capture is limited by the number of its sampling units (microvilli) and their photon-hit recovery time (refractoriness), can accurately simulate real recordings and their information content. However, sublinear summation in quantum bump production (quantum-gain-nonlinearity) may also cause adaptation by reducing the bump/photon gain when multiple photons hit the same microvillus simultaneously. Here, we use a Random Photon Absorption Model (RandPAM), which is the 1st module of the 4-module fly photoreceptor model, to quantify the contribution of quantum-gain-nonlinearity in light adaptation. We show how quantum-gain-nonlinearity already results from photon sampling alone. In the extreme case, when two or more simultaneous photon-hits reduce to a single sublinear value, quantum-gain-nonlinearity is preset before the phototransduction reactions adapt the quantum bump waveform. However, the contribution of quantum-gain-nonlinearity in light adaptation depends upon the likelihood of multi-photon-hits, which is strictly determined by the number of microvilli and light intensity. Specifically, its contribution to light-adaptation is marginal (≤ 1%) in fly photoreceptors with many thousands of microvilli, because the probability of simultaneous multi-photon-hits on any one microvillus is low even during daylight conditions. However, in cells with fewer sampling units, the impact of quantum-gain-nonlinearity increases with brightening light. PMID:27445779

  15. Query-Based Sampling: Can we do Better than Random?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tigelaar, A.S.; Hiemstra, Djoerd

    2010-01-01

    Many servers on the web offer content that is only accessible via a search interface. These are part of the deep web. Using conventional crawling to index the content of these remote servers is impossible without some form of cooperation. Query-based sampling provides an alternative to crawling

  16. Stratified random sampling plan for an irrigation customer telephone survey

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnston, J.W.; Davis, L.J.

    1986-05-01

    This report describes the procedures used to design and select a sample for a telephone survey of individuals who use electricity in irrigating agricultural cropland in the Pacific Northwest. The survey is intended to gather information on the irrigated agricultural sector that will be useful for conservation assessment, load forecasting, rate design, and other regional power planning activities.

  17. Concepts of probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    Pfeiffer, Paul E

    1979-01-01

    Using the Kolmogorov model, this intermediate-level text discusses random variables, probability distributions, mathematical expectation, random processes, more. For advanced undergraduates students of science, engineering, or math. Includes problems with answers and six appendixes. 1965 edition.

  18. Fast egg collection method greatly improves randomness of egg sampling in Drosophila melanogaster

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schou, Mads Fristrup

    2013-01-01

    When obtaining samples for population genetic studies, it is essential that the sampling is random. For Drosophila, one of the crucial steps in sampling experimental flies is the collection of eggs. Here an egg collection method is presented, which randomizes the eggs in a water column and dimini......When obtaining samples for population genetic studies, it is essential that the sampling is random. For Drosophila, one of the crucial steps in sampling experimental flies is the collection of eggs. Here an egg collection method is presented, which randomizes the eggs in a water column...... and to obtain a representative collection of genotypes, the method presented here is strongly recommended when collecting eggs from Drosophila....

  19. Using Logistic Regression and Random Forests multivariate statistical methods for landslide spatial probability assessment in North-Est Sicily, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trigila, Alessandro; Iadanza, Carla; Esposito, Carlo; Scarascia-Mugnozza, Gabriele

    2015-04-01

    first phase of the work addressed to identify the spatial relationships between the landslides location and the 13 related factors by using the Frequency Ratio bivariate statistical method. The analysis was then carried out by adopting a multivariate statistical approach, according to the Logistic Regression technique and Random Forests technique that gave best results in terms of AUC. The models were performed and evaluated with different sample sizes and also taking into account the temporal variation of input variables such as burned areas by wildfire. The most significant outcome of this work are: the relevant influence of the sample size on the model results and the strong importance of some environmental factors (e.g. land use and wildfires) for the identification of the depletion zones of extremely rapid shallow landslides.

  20. HIV-related risk behaviours and the correlates among rickshaw pullers of Kamrangirchar, Dhaka, Bangladesh: a cross-sectional study using probability sampling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ravari Shahrzad

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background National HIV serological and behavioural surveillance of Bangladesh repeatedly demonstrated a very high proportion of rickshaw pullers in Dhaka city, having sex with female sex workers (FSWs and using illicit substances. However, no study has been conducted to identify the correlates of having sex with FSWs among this population. This study aimed to describe behavioural profile of rickshaw pullers in Dhaka city using probability samples and to identify the correlates for having sex with FSWs in order to focus HIV prevention intervention. Methods Six hundred rickshaw pullers were randomly selected from rickshaw garages in the Kamrangirchar area, the single largest slum cluster of Dhaka, Bangladesh, during March–April 2008 using the Proportion Probability to Size method. Participants were interviewed, with a response rate of 99.2% (n = 595, using a structured questionnaire and asked about illicit substance use, sexual behaviour and risk perception for HIV and sexually transmitted diseases. Independent predictors of having sex with FSWs were analysed by multivariate analysis. A qualitative study was subsequently conducted with 30 rickshaw pullers to supplement the findings of the initial survey. Results The proportion of survey respondents who had sex with FSWs and those who used illicit substances in the previous 12 months period were 7.9% and 24.9%, respectively, much lower than the results achieved in the 2003–04 behavioural surveillance (72.8% and 89.9%, respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed the characteristics of younger age, being never married, living alone with family remaining in other districts and using illicit substances in the previous 12 months were significantly associated with having sex with FSWs. Conclusion HIV-related risk behaviour of our study population of the rickshaw pullers was lower than what has been suggested by the results of behavioural surveillance. While this discrepancy should be

  1. THE RHETORICAL USE OF RANDOM SAMPLING: CRAFTING AND COMMUNICATING THE PUBLIC IMAGE OF POLLS AS A SCIENCE (1935-1948).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lusinchi, Dominic

    2017-03-01

    The scientific pollsters (Archibald Crossley, George H. Gallup, and Elmo Roper) emerged onto the American news media scene in 1935. Much of what they did in the following years (1935-1948) was to promote both the political and scientific legitimacy of their enterprise. They sought to be recognized as the sole legitimate producers of public opinion. In this essay I examine the, mostly overlooked, rhetorical work deployed by the pollsters to publicize the scientific credentials of their polling activities, and the central role the concept of sampling has had in that pursuit. First, they distanced themselves from the failed straw poll by claiming that their sampling methodology based on quotas was informed by science. Second, although in practice they did not use random sampling, they relied on it rhetorically to derive the symbolic benefits of being associated with the "laws of probability." © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  2. Hate Crimes and Stigma-Related Experiences among Sexual Minority Adults in the United States: Prevalence Estimates from a National Probability Sample

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herek, Gregory M.

    2009-01-01

    Using survey responses collected via the Internet from a U.S. national probability sample of gay, lesbian, and bisexual adults (N = 662), this article reports prevalence estimates of criminal victimization and related experiences based on the target's sexual orientation. Approximately 20% of respondents reported having experienced a person or…

  3. Development and application of a most probable number-PCR assay to quantify flagellate populations in soil samples

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fredslund, Line; Ekelund, Flemming; Jacobsen, Carsten Suhr

    2001-01-01

    are biased by differences in the culturability of soil protozoa and are unable to quantify specific taxonomic groups, and the results are highly dependent on the choice of media and the skills of the microscopists. Successful detection of protozoa in soil by DNA techniques requires (i) the development......This paper reports on the first successful molecular detection and quantification of soil protozoa. Quantification of heterotrophic flagellates and naked amoebae in soil has traditionally relied on dilution culturing techniques, followed by most-probable-number (MPN) calculations. Such methods...

  4. A Unified Approach to Power Calculation and Sample Size Determination for Random Regression Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shieh, Gwowen

    2007-01-01

    The underlying statistical models for multiple regression analysis are typically attributed to two types of modeling: fixed and random. The procedures for calculating power and sample size under the fixed regression models are well known. However, the literature on random regression models is limited and has been confined to the case of all…

  5. A Family of Estimators of a Sensitive Variable Using Auxiliary Information in Stratified Random Sampling

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Nadia Mushtaq; Noor Ul Amin; Muhammad Hanif

    2017-01-01

    In this article, a combined general family of estimators is proposed for estimating finite population mean of a sensitive variable in stratified random sampling with non-sensitive auxiliary variable...

  6. Sexual diversity in the United States: Results from a nationally representative probability sample of adult women and men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herbenick, Debby; Bowling, Jessamyn; Fu, Tsung-Chieh Jane; Dodge, Brian; Guerra-Reyes, Lucia; Sanders, Stephanie

    2017-01-01

    In 2015, we conducted a cross-sectional, Internet-based, U.S. nationally representative probability survey of 2,021 adults (975 men, 1,046 women) focused on a broad range of sexual behaviors. Individuals invited to participate were from the GfK KnowledgePanel®. The survey was titled the 2015 Sexual Exploration in America Study and survey completion took about 12 to 15 minutes. The survey was confidential and the researchers never had access to respondents' identifiers. Respondents reported on demographic items, lifetime and recent sexual behaviors, and the appeal of 50+ sexual behaviors. Most (>80%) reported lifetime masturbation, vaginal sex, and oral sex. Lifetime anal sex was reported by 43% of men (insertive) and 37% of women (receptive). Common lifetime sexual behaviors included wearing sexy lingerie/underwear (75% women, 26% men), sending/receiving digital nude/semi-nude photos (54% women, 65% men), reading erotic stories (57% of participants), public sex (≥43%), role-playing (≥22%), tying/being tied up (≥20%), spanking (≥30%), and watching sexually explicit videos/DVDs (60% women, 82% men). Having engaged in threesomes (10% women, 18% men) and playful whipping (≥13%) were less common. Lifetime group sex, sex parties, taking a sexuality class/workshop, and going to BDSM parties were uncommon (each diverse adult sexual behaviors than has previously been captured in U.S. nationally representative probability surveys. Implications for sexuality educators, clinicians, and individuals in the general population are discussed.

  7. A New Estimator For Population Mean Using Two Auxiliary Variables in Stratified random Sampling

    OpenAIRE

    Singh, Rajesh; Malik, Sachin

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we suggest an estimator using two auxiliary variables in stratified random sampling. The propose estimator has an improvement over mean per unit estimator as well as some other considered estimators. Expressions for bias and MSE of the estimator are derived up to first degree of approximation. Moreover, these theoretical findings are supported by a numerical example with original data. Key words: Study variable, auxiliary variable, stratified random sampling, bias and mean squa...

  8. The Mean Distance to the nth Neighbour in a Uniform Distribution of Random Points: An Application of Probability Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharyya, Pratip; Chakrabarti, Bikas K.

    2008-01-01

    We study different ways of determining the mean distance (r[subscript n]) between a reference point and its nth neighbour among random points distributed with uniform density in a D-dimensional Euclidean space. First, we present a heuristic method; though this method provides only a crude mathematical result, it shows a simple way of estimating…

  9. Sexual diversity in the United States: Results from a nationally representative probability sample of adult women and men.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Debby Herbenick

    Full Text Available In 2015, we conducted a cross-sectional, Internet-based, U.S. nationally representative probability survey of 2,021 adults (975 men, 1,046 women focused on a broad range of sexual behaviors. Individuals invited to participate were from the GfK KnowledgePanel®. The survey was titled the 2015 Sexual Exploration in America Study and survey completion took about 12 to 15 minutes. The survey was confidential and the researchers never had access to respondents' identifiers. Respondents reported on demographic items, lifetime and recent sexual behaviors, and the appeal of 50+ sexual behaviors. Most (>80% reported lifetime masturbation, vaginal sex, and oral sex. Lifetime anal sex was reported by 43% of men (insertive and 37% of women (receptive. Common lifetime sexual behaviors included wearing sexy lingerie/underwear (75% women, 26% men, sending/receiving digital nude/semi-nude photos (54% women, 65% men, reading erotic stories (57% of participants, public sex (≥43%, role-playing (≥22%, tying/being tied up (≥20%, spanking (≥30%, and watching sexually explicit videos/DVDs (60% women, 82% men. Having engaged in threesomes (10% women, 18% men and playful whipping (≥13% were less common. Lifetime group sex, sex parties, taking a sexuality class/workshop, and going to BDSM parties were uncommon (each <8%. More Americans identified behaviors as "appealing" than had engaged in them. Romantic/affectionate behaviors were among those most commonly identified as appealing for both men and women. The appeal of particular behaviors was associated with greater odds that the individual had ever engaged in the behavior. This study contributes to our understanding of more diverse adult sexual behaviors than has previously been captured in U.S. nationally representative probability surveys. Implications for sexuality educators, clinicians, and individuals in the general population are discussed.

  10. Sexual diversity in the United States: Results from a nationally representative probability sample of adult women and men

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herbenick, Debby; Bowling, Jessamyn; Fu, Tsung-Chieh (Jane); Guerra-Reyes, Lucia; Sanders, Stephanie

    2017-01-01

    In 2015, we conducted a cross-sectional, Internet-based, U.S. nationally representative probability survey of 2,021 adults (975 men, 1,046 women) focused on a broad range of sexual behaviors. Individuals invited to participate were from the GfK KnowledgePanel®. The survey was titled the 2015 Sexual Exploration in America Study and survey completion took about 12 to 15 minutes. The survey was confidential and the researchers never had access to respondents’ identifiers. Respondents reported on demographic items, lifetime and recent sexual behaviors, and the appeal of 50+ sexual behaviors. Most (>80%) reported lifetime masturbation, vaginal sex, and oral sex. Lifetime anal sex was reported by 43% of men (insertive) and 37% of women (receptive). Common lifetime sexual behaviors included wearing sexy lingerie/underwear (75% women, 26% men), sending/receiving digital nude/semi-nude photos (54% women, 65% men), reading erotic stories (57% of participants), public sex (≥43%), role-playing (≥22%), tying/being tied up (≥20%), spanking (≥30%), and watching sexually explicit videos/DVDs (60% women, 82% men). Having engaged in threesomes (10% women, 18% men) and playful whipping (≥13%) were less common. Lifetime group sex, sex parties, taking a sexuality class/workshop, and going to BDSM parties were uncommon (each <8%). More Americans identified behaviors as “appealing” than had engaged in them. Romantic/affectionate behaviors were among those most commonly identified as appealing for both men and women. The appeal of particular behaviors was associated with greater odds that the individual had ever engaged in the behavior. This study contributes to our understanding of more diverse adult sexual behaviors than has previously been captured in U.S. nationally representative probability surveys. Implications for sexuality educators, clinicians, and individuals in the general population are discussed. PMID:28727762

  11. An Abecedary of Sampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, Kenneth O., Jr.

    1979-01-01

    The vocabulary of sampling is examined in order to provide a clear understanding of basic sampling concepts. The basic vocabulary of sampling (population, probability sampling, precision and bias, stratification), the fundamental grammar of sampling (random sample), sample size and response rate, and cluster, multiphase, snowball, and panel…

  12. Comparison of kriging interpolation precision between grid sampling scheme and simple random sampling scheme for precision agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiang Houlong

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Sampling methods are important factors that can potentially limit the accuracy of predictions of spatial distribution patterns. A 10 ha tobacco-planted field was selected to compared the accuracy in predicting the spatial distribution of soil properties by using ordinary kriging and cross validation methods between grid sampling and simple random sampling scheme (SRS. To achieve this objective, we collected soil samples from the topsoil (0-20 cm in March 2012. Sample numbers of grid sampling and SRS were both 115 points each. Accuracies of spatial interpolation using the two sampling schemes were then evaluated based on validation samples (36 points and deviations of the estimates. The results suggested that soil pH and nitrate-N (NO3-N had low variation, whereas all other soil properties exhibited medium variation. Soil pH, organic matter (OM, total nitrogen (TN, cation exchange capacity (CEC, total phosphorus (TP and available phosphorus (AP matched the spherical model, whereas the remaining variables fit an exponential model with both sampling methods. The interpolation error of soil pH, TP, and AP was the lowest in SRS. The errors of interpolation for OM, CEC, TN, available potassium (AK and total potassium (TK were the lowest for grid sampling. The interpolation precisions of the soil NO3-N showed no significant differences between the two sampling schemes. Considering our data on interpolation precision and the importance of minerals for cultivation of flue-cured tobacco, the grid-sampling scheme should be used in tobacco-planted fields to determine the spatial distribution of soil properties. The grid-sampling method can be applied in a practical and cost-effective manner to facilitate soil sampling in tobacco-planted field.

  13. Probability calculus of fractional order and fractional Taylor's series application to Fokker-Planck equation and information of non-random functions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jumarie, Guy [Department of Mathematics, University of Quebec at Montreal, P.O. Box 8888, Downtown Station, Montreal, Qc, H3C 3P8 (Canada)], E-mail: jumarie.guy@uqam.ca

    2009-05-15

    A probability distribution of fractional (or fractal) order is defined by the measure {mu}{l_brace}dx{r_brace} = p(x)(dx){sup {alpha}}, 0 < {alpha} < 1. Combining this definition with the fractional Taylor's series f(x+h)=E{sub {alpha}}(D{sub x}{sup {alpha}}h{sup {alpha}})f(x) provided by the modified Riemann Liouville definition, one can expand a probability calculus parallel to the standard one. A Fourier's transform of fractional order using the Mittag-Leffler function is introduced, together with its inversion formula; and it provides a suitable generalization of the characteristic function of fractal random variables. It appears that the state moments of fractional order are more especially relevant. The main properties of this fractional probability calculus are outlined, it is shown that it provides a sound approach to Fokker-Planck equation which are fractional in both space and time, and it provides new results in the information theory of non-random functions.

  14. On Probability Domains IV

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frič, Roman; Papčo, Martin

    2017-12-01

    Stressing a categorical approach, we continue our study of fuzzified domains of probability, in which classical random events are replaced by measurable fuzzy random events. In operational probability theory (S. Bugajski) classical random variables are replaced by statistical maps (generalized distribution maps induced by random variables) and in fuzzy probability theory (S. Gudder) the central role is played by observables (maps between probability domains). We show that to each of the two generalized probability theories there corresponds a suitable category and the two resulting categories are dually equivalent. Statistical maps and observables become morphisms. A statistical map can send a degenerated (pure) state to a non-degenerated one —a quantum phenomenon and, dually, an observable can map a crisp random event to a genuine fuzzy random event —a fuzzy phenomenon. The dual equivalence means that the operational probability theory and the fuzzy probability theory coincide and the resulting generalized probability theory has two dual aspects: quantum and fuzzy. We close with some notes on products and coproducts in the dual categories.

  15. On Probability Domains IV

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frič, Roman; Papčo, Martin

    2017-06-01

    Stressing a categorical approach, we continue our study of fuzzified domains of probability, in which classical random events are replaced by measurable fuzzy random events. In operational probability theory (S. Bugajski) classical random variables are replaced by statistical maps (generalized distribution maps induced by random variables) and in fuzzy probability theory (S. Gudder) the central role is played by observables (maps between probability domains). We show that to each of the two generalized probability theories there corresponds a suitable category and the two resulting categories are dually equivalent. Statistical maps and observables become morphisms. A statistical map can send a degenerated (pure) state to a non-degenerated one —a quantum phenomenon and, dually, an observable can map a crisp random event to a genuine fuzzy random event —a fuzzy phenomenon. The dual equivalence means that the operational probability theory and the fuzzy probability theory coincide and the resulting generalized probability theory has two dual aspects: quantum and fuzzy. We close with some notes on products and coproducts in the dual categories.

  16. Determining optimal sample sizes for multistage adaptive randomized clinical trials from an industry perspective using value of information methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Maggie H; Willan, Andrew R

    2013-02-01

    Most often, sample size determinations for randomized clinical trials are based on frequentist approaches that depend on somewhat arbitrarily chosen factors, such as type I and II error probabilities and the smallest clinically important difference. As an alternative, many authors have proposed decision-theoretic (full Bayesian) approaches, often referred to as value of information methods that attempt to determine the sample size that maximizes the difference between the trial's expected utility and its expected cost, referred to as the expected net gain. Taking an industry perspective, Willan proposes a solution in which the trial's utility is the increase in expected profit. Furthermore, Willan and Kowgier, taking a societal perspective, show that multistage designs can increase expected net gain. The purpose of this article is to determine the optimal sample size using value of information methods for industry-based, multistage adaptive randomized clinical trials, and to demonstrate the increase in expected net gain realized. At the end of each stage, the trial's sponsor must decide between three actions: continue to the next stage, stop the trial and seek regulatory approval, or stop the trial and abandon the drug. A model for expected total profit is proposed that includes consideration of per-patient profit, disease incidence, time horizon, trial duration, market share, and the relationship between trial results and probability of regulatory approval. The proposed method is extended to include multistage designs with a solution provided for a two-stage design. An example is given. Significant increases in the expected net gain are realized by using multistage designs. The complexity of the solutions increases with the number of stages, although far simpler near-optimal solutions exist. The method relies on the central limit theorem, assuming that the sample size is sufficiently large so that the relevant statistics are normally distributed. From a value of

  17. Trend monitoring of the areal extent of habitats in a subsiding coastal area by spatial probability sampling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brus, D.J.; Slim, P.A.; Heidema, A.H.; Dobben, van H.F.

    2014-01-01

    The European Habitats Directive requires a regular reporting of areal changes of the Habitat types definedunder this Directive. To monitor changes in Habitat types in a dune and salt meadow area in the easternpart of the back-barrier island of Ameland (The Netherlands) a sampling scheme was designed

  18. Prediction uncertainty assessment of a systems biology model requires a sample of the full probability distribution of its parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon van Mourik

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Multi-parameter models in systems biology are typically ‘sloppy’: some parameters or combinations of parameters may be hard to estimate from data, whereas others are not. One might expect that parameter uncertainty automatically leads to uncertain predictions, but this is not the case. We illustrate this by showing that the prediction uncertainty of each of six sloppy models varies enormously among different predictions. Statistical approximations of parameter uncertainty may lead to dramatic errors in prediction uncertainty estimation. We argue that prediction uncertainty assessment must therefore be performed on a per-prediction basis using a full computational uncertainty analysis. In practice this is feasible by providing a model with a sample or ensemble representing the distribution of its parameters. Within a Bayesian framework, such a sample may be generated by a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC algorithm that infers the parameter distribution based on experimental data. Matlab code for generating the sample (with the Differential Evolution Markov Chain sampler and the subsequent uncertainty analysis using such a sample, is supplied as Supplemental Information.

  19. Prediction uncertainty assessment of a systems biology model requires a sample of the full probability distribution of its parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Mourik, Simon; Ter Braak, Cajo; Stigter, Hans; Molenaar, Jaap

    2014-01-01

    Multi-parameter models in systems biology are typically 'sloppy': some parameters or combinations of parameters may be hard to estimate from data, whereas others are not. One might expect that parameter uncertainty automatically leads to uncertain predictions, but this is not the case. We illustrate this by showing that the prediction uncertainty of each of six sloppy models varies enormously among different predictions. Statistical approximations of parameter uncertainty may lead to dramatic errors in prediction uncertainty estimation. We argue that prediction uncertainty assessment must therefore be performed on a per-prediction basis using a full computational uncertainty analysis. In practice this is feasible by providing a model with a sample or ensemble representing the distribution of its parameters. Within a Bayesian framework, such a sample may be generated by a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that infers the parameter distribution based on experimental data. Matlab code for generating the sample (with the Differential Evolution Markov Chain sampler) and the subsequent uncertainty analysis using such a sample, is supplied as Supplemental Information.

  20. Yfiler® Plus population samples and dilution series: stutters, analytic thresholds, and drop-out probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Mikkel Meyer; Mogensen, Helle Smidt; Eriksen, Poul Svante

    2017-01-01

    The YfilerⓇ Plus Amplification Kit amplifies 27 Y chromosomal small tandem repeat (STR) markers. The kit has five-fluorescent dye chemistry and the improved PCR buffer system of modern STR kits. We validated the kit for accredited investigations of crime scene samples by a thorough study of kit...

  1. Robust estimation of the expected survival probabilities from high-dimensional Cox models with biomarker-by-treatment interactions in randomized clinical trials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nils Ternès

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Thanks to the advances in genomics and targeted treatments, more and more prediction models based on biomarkers are being developed to predict potential benefit from treatments in a randomized clinical trial. Despite the methodological framework for the development and validation of prediction models in a high-dimensional setting is getting more and more established, no clear guidance exists yet on how to estimate expected survival probabilities in a penalized model with biomarker-by-treatment interactions. Methods Based on a parsimonious biomarker selection in a penalized high-dimensional Cox model (lasso or adaptive lasso, we propose a unified framework to: estimate internally the predictive accuracy metrics of the developed model (using double cross-validation; estimate the individual survival probabilities at a given timepoint; construct confidence intervals thereof (analytical or bootstrap; and visualize them graphically (pointwise or smoothed with spline. We compared these strategies through a simulation study covering scenarios with or without biomarker effects. We applied the strategies to a large randomized phase III clinical trial that evaluated the effect of adding trastuzumab to chemotherapy in 1574 early breast cancer patients, for which the expression of 462 genes was measured. Results In our simulations, penalized regression models using the adaptive lasso estimated the survival probability of new patients with low bias and standard error; bootstrapped confidence intervals had empirical coverage probability close to the nominal level across very different scenarios. The double cross-validation performed on the training data set closely mimicked the predictive accuracy of the selected models in external validation data. We also propose a useful visual representation of the expected survival probabilities using splines. In the breast cancer trial, the adaptive lasso penalty selected a prediction model with 4

  2. Calculating sample sizes for cluster randomized trials: we can keep it simple and efficient !

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Breukelen, Gerard J.P.; Candel, Math J.J.M.

    2012-01-01

    Objective: Simple guidelines for efficient sample sizes in cluster randomized trials with unknown intraclass correlation and varying cluster sizes. Methods: A simple equation is given for the optimal number of clusters and sample size per cluster. Here, optimal means maximizing power for a given

  3. Impact of controlling the sum of error probability in the sequential probability ratio test

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bijoy Kumarr Pradhan

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available A generalized modified method is proposed to control the sum of error probabilities in sequential probability ratio test to minimize the weighted average of the two average sample numbers under a simple null hypothesis and a simple alternative hypothesis with the restriction that the sum of error probabilities is a pre-assigned constant to find the optimal sample size and finally a comparison is done with the optimal sample size found from fixed sample size procedure. The results are applied to the cases when the random variate follows a normal law as well as Bernoullian law.

  4. Reaching the hard-to-reach: a probability sampling method for assessing prevalence of driving under the influence after drinking in alcohol outlets.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raquel De Boni

    Full Text Available Drinking alcoholic beverages in places such as bars and clubs may be associated with harmful consequences such as violence and impaired driving. However, methods for obtaining probabilistic samples of drivers who drink at these places remain a challenge--since there is no a priori information on this mobile population--and must be continually improved. This paper describes the procedures adopted in the selection of a population-based sample of drivers who drank at alcohol selling outlets in Porto Alegre, Brazil, which we used to estimate the prevalence of intention to drive under the influence of alcohol. The sampling strategy comprises a stratified three-stage cluster sampling: 1 census enumeration areas (CEA were stratified by alcohol outlets (AO density and sampled with probability proportional to the number of AOs in each CEA; 2 combinations of outlets and shifts (COS were stratified by prevalence of alcohol-related traffic crashes and sampled with probability proportional to their squared duration in hours; and, 3 drivers who drank at the selected COS were stratified by their intention to drive and sampled using inverse sampling. Sample weights were calibrated using a post-stratification estimator. 3,118 individuals were approached and 683 drivers interviewed, leading to an estimate that 56.3% (SE = 3,5% of the drivers intended to drive after drinking in less than one hour after the interview. Prevalence was also estimated by sex and broad age groups. The combined use of stratification and inverse sampling enabled a good trade-off between resource and time allocation, while preserving the ability to generalize the findings. The current strategy can be viewed as a step forward in the efforts to improve surveys and estimation for hard-to-reach, mobile populations.

  5. Reaching the hard-to-reach: a probability sampling method for assessing prevalence of driving under the influence after drinking in alcohol outlets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Boni, Raquel; do Nascimento Silva, Pedro Luis; Bastos, Francisco Inácio; Pechansky, Flavio; de Vasconcellos, Mauricio Teixeira Leite

    2012-01-01

    Drinking alcoholic beverages in places such as bars and clubs may be associated with harmful consequences such as violence and impaired driving. However, methods for obtaining probabilistic samples of drivers who drink at these places remain a challenge--since there is no a priori information on this mobile population--and must be continually improved. This paper describes the procedures adopted in the selection of a population-based sample of drivers who drank at alcohol selling outlets in Porto Alegre, Brazil, which we used to estimate the prevalence of intention to drive under the influence of alcohol. The sampling strategy comprises a stratified three-stage cluster sampling: 1) census enumeration areas (CEA) were stratified by alcohol outlets (AO) density and sampled with probability proportional to the number of AOs in each CEA; 2) combinations of outlets and shifts (COS) were stratified by prevalence of alcohol-related traffic crashes and sampled with probability proportional to their squared duration in hours; and, 3) drivers who drank at the selected COS were stratified by their intention to drive and sampled using inverse sampling. Sample weights were calibrated using a post-stratification estimator. 3,118 individuals were approached and 683 drivers interviewed, leading to an estimate that 56.3% (SE = 3,5%) of the drivers intended to drive after drinking in less than one hour after the interview. Prevalence was also estimated by sex and broad age groups. The combined use of stratification and inverse sampling enabled a good trade-off between resource and time allocation, while preserving the ability to generalize the findings. The current strategy can be viewed as a step forward in the efforts to improve surveys and estimation for hard-to-reach, mobile populations.

  6. Multi-channel Dual Clocks three-dimensional probability Random Multiple Access protocol for Wireless Public Bus Networks based on RTS/CTS mechanism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhou Sheng Jie

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A MAC protocol for public bus networks, called Bus MAC protocol, designed to provide high quality Internet service for bus passengers. The paper proposed a multi-channel dual clocks three-demission probability random multiple access protocol based on RTS/CTS mechanism, decreasing collisions caused by multiple access from multiple passengers. Use the RTS/CTS mechanism increases the reliability and stability of the system, reducing the collision possibility of the information packets to a certain extent, improves the channel utilization; use the multi-channel mechanism, not only enables the channel load balancing, but also solves the problem of the hidden terminal and exposed terminal. Use the dual clocks mechanism, reducing the system idle time. At last, the different selection of the three-dimensional probabilities can make the system throughput adapt to the network load which could realize the maximum of the system throughput.

  7. Survey research with a random digit dial national mobile phone sample in Ghana: Methods and sample quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sefa, Eunice; Adimazoya, Edward Akolgo; Yartey, Emmanuel; Lenzi, Rachel; Tarpo, Cindy; Heward-Mills, Nii Lante; Lew, Katherine; Ampeh, Yvonne

    2018-01-01

    Introduction Generating a nationally representative sample in low and middle income countries typically requires resource-intensive household level sampling with door-to-door data collection. High mobile phone penetration rates in developing countries provide new opportunities for alternative sampling and data collection methods, but there is limited information about response rates and sample biases in coverage and nonresponse using these methods. We utilized data from an interactive voice response, random-digit dial, national mobile phone survey in Ghana to calculate standardized response rates and assess representativeness of the obtained sample. Materials and methods The survey methodology was piloted in two rounds of data collection. The final survey included 18 demographic, media exposure, and health behavior questions. Call outcomes and response rates were calculated according to the American Association of Public Opinion Research guidelines. Sample characteristics, productivity, and costs per interview were calculated. Representativeness was assessed by comparing data to the Ghana Demographic and Health Survey and the National Population and Housing Census. Results The survey was fielded during a 27-day period in February-March 2017. There were 9,469 completed interviews and 3,547 partial interviews. Response, cooperation, refusal, and contact rates were 31%, 81%, 7%, and 39% respectively. Twenty-three calls were dialed to produce an eligible contact: nonresponse was substantial due to the automated calling system and dialing of many unassigned or non-working numbers. Younger, urban, better educated, and male respondents were overrepresented in the sample. Conclusions The innovative mobile phone data collection methodology yielded a large sample in a relatively short period. Response rates were comparable to other surveys, although substantial coverage bias resulted from fewer women, rural, and older residents completing the mobile phone survey in

  8. Probability theory and mathematical statistics for engineers

    CERN Document Server

    Pugachev, V S

    1984-01-01

    Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics for Engineers focuses on the concepts of probability theory and mathematical statistics for finite-dimensional random variables.The publication first underscores the probabilities of events, random variables, and numerical characteristics of random variables. Discussions focus on canonical expansions of random vectors, second-order moments of random vectors, generalization of the density concept, entropy of a distribution, direct evaluation of probabilities, and conditional probabilities. The text then examines projections of random vector

  9. Stratified random sampling for estimating billing accuracy in health care systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buddhakulsomsiri, Jirachai; Parthanadee, Parthana

    2008-03-01

    This paper presents a stratified random sampling plan for estimating accuracy of bill processing performance for the health care bills submitted to third party payers in health care systems. Bill processing accuracy is estimated with two measures: percent accuracy and total dollar accuracy. Difficulties in constructing a sampling plan arise when the population strata structure is unknown, and when the two measures require different sampling schemes. To efficiently utilize sample resource, the sampling plan is designed to effectively estimate both measures from the same sample. The sampling plan features a simple but efficient strata construction method, called rectangular method, and two accuracy estimation methods, one for each measure. The sampling plan is tested on actual populations from an insurance company. Accuracy estimates obtained are then used to compare the rectangular method to other potential clustering methods for strata construction, and compare the accuracy estimation methods to other eligible methods. Computational study results show effectiveness of the proposed sampling plan.

  10. SNP selection and classification of genome-wide SNP data using stratified sampling random forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qingyao; Ye, Yunming; Liu, Yang; Ng, Michael K

    2012-09-01

    For high dimensional genome-wide association (GWA) case-control data of complex disease, there are usually a large portion of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are irrelevant with the disease. A simple random sampling method in random forest using default mtry parameter to choose feature subspace, will select too many subspaces without informative SNPs. Exhaustive searching an optimal mtry is often required in order to include useful and relevant SNPs and get rid of vast of non-informative SNPs. However, it is too time-consuming and not favorable in GWA for high-dimensional data. The main aim of this paper is to propose a stratified sampling method for feature subspace selection to generate decision trees in a random forest for GWA high-dimensional data. Our idea is to design an equal-width discretization scheme for informativeness to divide SNPs into multiple groups. In feature subspace selection, we randomly select the same number of SNPs from each group and combine them to form a subspace to generate a decision tree. The advantage of this stratified sampling procedure can make sure each subspace contains enough useful SNPs, but can avoid a very high computational cost of exhaustive search of an optimal mtry, and maintain the randomness of a random forest. We employ two genome-wide SNP data sets (Parkinson case-control data comprised of 408 803 SNPs and Alzheimer case-control data comprised of 380 157 SNPs) to demonstrate that the proposed stratified sampling method is effective, and it can generate better random forest with higher accuracy and lower error bound than those by Breiman's random forest generation method. For Parkinson data, we also show some interesting genes identified by the method, which may be associated with neurological disorders for further biological investigations.

  11. Modern survey sampling

    CERN Document Server

    Chaudhuri, Arijit

    2014-01-01

    Exposure to SamplingAbstract Introduction Concepts of Population, Sample, and SamplingInitial RamificationsAbstract Introduction Sampling Design, Sampling SchemeRandom Numbers and Their Uses in Simple RandomSampling (SRS)Drawing Simple Random Samples with and withoutReplacementEstimation of Mean, Total, Ratio of Totals/Means:Variance and Variance EstimationDetermination of Sample SizesA.2 Appendix to Chapter 2 A.More on Equal Probability Sampling A.Horvitz-Thompson EstimatorA.SufficiencyA.LikelihoodA.Non-Existence Theorem More Intricacies Abstract Introduction Unequal Probability Sampling StrategiesPPS Sampling Exploring Improved WaysAbstract Introduction Stratified Sampling Cluster SamplingMulti-Stage SamplingMulti-Phase Sampling: Ratio and RegressionEstimationviiviii ContentsControlled SamplingModeling Introduction Super-Population ModelingPrediction Approach Model-Assisted Approach Bayesian Methods Spatial SmoothingSampling on Successive Occasions: Panel Rotation Non-Response and Not-at-Homes Weighting Adj...

  12. Probability an introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Grimmett, Geoffrey

    2014-01-01

    Probability is an area of mathematics of tremendous contemporary importance across all aspects of human endeavour. This book is a compact account of the basic features of probability and random processes at the level of first and second year mathematics undergraduates and Masters' students in cognate fields. It is suitable for a first course in probability, plus a follow-up course in random processes including Markov chains. A special feature is the authors' attention to rigorous mathematics: not everything is rigorous, but the need for rigour is explained at difficult junctures. The text is enriched by simple exercises, together with problems (with very brief hints) many of which are taken from final examinations at Cambridge and Oxford. The first eight chapters form a course in basic probability, being an account of events, random variables, and distributions - discrete and continuous random variables are treated separately - together with simple versions of the law of large numbers and the central limit th...

  13. Factors related to Secchi depths and their stability over time as determined from a probability sample of US lakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachmann, Roger W; Hoyer, Mark V; Croteau, Amanda C; Canfield, Daniel E

    2017-05-01

    A probabilistic sample of lakes in the 48 coterminous US lakes was made by the United States Environmental Protection Agency in the 2007 National Lakes Assessment. Because of the statistical design, the results of our analyses of Secchi depths (SD) apply to a population of 45,265 lakes. We found statistically significant differences in mean Secchi depths between natural (1.57 m) and man-made lakes (1.18 m). The most important variable correlated with SD was turbidity, an optical measure related to suspended particles in the water column. For most lakes, chlorophyll a was highly correlated with both turbidity and SD, but several lakes had more turbidity and lower SD than expected based on chlorophyll a alone, indicating that non-algal suspended solids were an important factor. On an ecoregion basis, the non-algal suspended solids in the lake waters were related to the average levels of suspended solids in streams located in that ecoregion, and the non-algal suspended solids were more important in man-made than natural lakes. Phosphorus and nitrogen were directly correlated with chlorophyll a and turbidity and inversely correlated with SD. Based on diatom-inferred Secchi depths for the tops and bottoms of sediment cores from lakes in Ecoregions VIII and VII (excluding lakes in Minnesota) representing 40% of the natural lakes in the US, there has been no decrease in water transparency in that population of lakes in the past 70 or more years when the US population increased by 134%. We do not have information to determine if the other 60% of lakes have or have not changed.

  14. Media Use and Source Trust among Muslims in Seven Countries: Results of a Large Random Sample Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven R. Corman

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Despite the perceived importance of media in the spread of and resistance against Islamist extremism, little is known about how Muslims use different kinds of media to get information about religious issues, and what sources they trust when doing so. This paper reports the results of a large, random sample survey among Muslims in seven countries Southeast Asia, West Africa and Western Europe, which helps fill this gap. Results show a diverse set of profiles of media use and source trust that differ by country, with overall low trust in mediated sources of information. Based on these findings, we conclude that mass media is still the most common source of religious information for Muslims, but that trust in mediated information is low overall. This suggests that media are probably best used to persuade opinion leaders, who will then carry anti-extremist messages through more personal means.

  15. Non-Archimedean Probability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Benci, Vieri; Horsten, Leon; Wenmackers, Sylvia

    We propose an alternative approach to probability theory closely related to the framework of numerosity theory: non-Archimedean probability (NAP). In our approach, unlike in classical probability theory, all subsets of an infinite sample space are measurable and only the empty set gets assigned

  16. Choice Probability Generating Functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel L; Bierlaire, Michel

    This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications....

  17. Sequential sampling model for multiattribute choice alternatives with random attention time and processing order.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diederich, Adele; Oswald, Peter

    2014-01-01

    A sequential sampling model for multiattribute binary choice options, called multiattribute attention switching (MAAS) model, assumes a separate sampling process for each attribute. During the deliberation process attention switches from one attribute consideration to the next. The order in which attributes are considered as well for how long each attribute is considered-the attention time-influences the predicted choice probabilities and choice response times. Several probability distributions for the attention time with different variances are investigated. Depending on the time and order schedule the model predicts a rich choice probability/choice response time pattern including preference reversals and fast errors. Furthermore, the difference between finite and infinite decision horizons for the attribute considered last is investigated. For the former case the model predicts a probability p 0 > 0 of not deciding within the available time. The underlying stochastic process for each attribute is an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process approximated by a discrete birth-death process. All predictions are also true for the widely applied Wiener process.

  18. Sequential sampling model for multiattribute choice alternatives with random attention time and processing order

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adele eDiederich

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available A sequential sampling model for multiattribute binary choice options, called Multiattribute attention switching (MAAS model, assumes a separate sampling process for each attribute. During the deliberation process attention switches from one attribute consideration to the next. The order in which attributes are considered as well for how long each attribute is considered - the attention time - influences the predicted choice probabilities and choice response times. Several probability distributions for the attention time including deterministic, Poisson, binomial, geometric, and uniform with different variances are investigated. Depending on the time and order schedule the model predicts a rich choice probability/choice response time pattern including preference reversals and fast errors. Furthermore, the difference between a finite and infinite decision horizons for the attribute considered last is investigated. For the former case the model predicts a probability $p_0> 0$ of not deciding within the available time. The underlying stochastic process for each attribute is an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process approximated by a discrete birth-death process. All predictions are also true for the widely applied Wiener process.

  19. Introduction to probability and statistics for science, engineering, and finance

    CERN Document Server

    Rosenkrantz, Walter A

    2008-01-01

    Data Analysis Orientation The Role and Scope of Statistics in Science and Engineering Types of Data: Examples from Engineering, Public Health, and Finance The Frequency Distribution of a Variable Defined on a Population Quantiles of a Distribution Measures of Location (Central Value) and Variability Covariance, Correlation, and Regression: Computing a Stock's Beta Mathematical Details and Derivations Large Data Sets Probability Theory Orientation Sample Space, Events, Axioms of Probability Theory Mathematical Models of Random Sampling Conditional Probability and Baye

  20. Estimation of Sensitive Proportion by Randomized Response Data in Successive Sampling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo Yu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers the problem of estimation for binomial proportions of sensitive or stigmatizing attributes in the population of interest. Randomized response techniques are suggested for protecting the privacy of respondents and reducing the response bias while eliciting information on sensitive attributes. In many sensitive question surveys, the same population is often sampled repeatedly on each occasion. In this paper, we apply successive sampling scheme to improve the estimation of the sensitive proportion on current occasion.

  1. Multi-scale occupancy approach to estimate Toxoplasma gondii prevalence and detection probability in tissues: an application and guide for field sampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elmore, Stacey A; Huyvaert, Kathryn P; Bailey, Larissa L; Iqbal, Asma; Su, Chunlei; Dixon, Brent R; Alisauskas, Ray T; Gajadhar, Alvin A; Jenkins, Emily J

    2016-08-01

    Increasingly, birds are recognised as important hosts for the ubiquitous parasite Toxoplasma gondii, although little experimental evidence exists to determine which tissues should be tested to maximise the detection probability of T. gondii. Also, Arctic-nesting geese are suspected to be important sources of T. gondii in terrestrial Arctic ecosystems, but the parasite has not previously been reported in the tissues of these geese. Using a domestic goose model, we applied a multi-scale occupancy framework to demonstrate that the probability of detection of T. gondii was highest in the brain (0.689, 95% confidence interval=0.486, 0.839) and the heart (0.809, 95% confidence interval=0.693, 0.888). Inoculated geese had an estimated T. gondii infection probability of 0.849, (95% confidence interval=0.643, 0.946), highlighting uncertainty in the system, even under experimental conditions. Guided by these results, we tested the brains and hearts of wild Ross's Geese (Chen rossii, n=50) and Lesser Snow Geese (Chen caerulescens, n=50) from Karrak Lake, Nunavut, Canada. We detected 51 suspected positive tissue samples from 33 wild geese using real-time PCR with melt-curve analysis. The wild goose prevalence estimates generated by our multi-scale occupancy analysis were higher than the naïve estimates of prevalence, indicating that multiple PCR repetitions on the same organs and testing more than one organ could improve T. gondii detection. Genetic characterisation revealed Type III T. gondii alleles in six wild geese and Sarcocystis spp. in 25 samples. Our study demonstrates that Arctic nesting geese are capable of harbouring T. gondii in their tissues and could transport the parasite from their southern overwintering grounds into the Arctic region. We demonstrate how a multi-scale occupancy framework can be used in a domestic animal model to guide resource-limited sample collection and tissue analysis in wildlife. Secondly, we confirm the value of traditional occupancy in

  2. Power and sample size calculations for Mendelian randomization studies using one genetic instrument.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, Guy; Cowling, Benjamin J; Schooling, C Mary

    2013-08-01

    Mendelian randomization, which is instrumental variable analysis using genetic variants as instruments, is an increasingly popular method of making causal inferences from observational studies. In order to design efficient Mendelian randomization studies, it is essential to calculate the sample sizes required. We present formulas for calculating the power of a Mendelian randomization study using one genetic instrument to detect an effect of a given size, and the minimum sample size required to detect effects for given levels of significance and power, using asymptotic statistical theory. We apply the formulas to some example data and compare the results with those from simulation methods. Power and sample size calculations using these formulas should be more straightforward to carry out than simulation approaches. These formulas make explicit that the sample size needed for Mendelian randomization study is inversely proportional to the square of the correlation between the genetic instrument and the exposure and proportional to the residual variance of the outcome after removing the effect of the exposure, as well as inversely proportional to the square of the effect size.

  3. Sampling versus Random Binning for Multiple Descriptions of a Bandlimited Source

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mashiach, Adam; Østergaard, Jan; Zamir, Ram

    2013-01-01

    Random binning is an efficient, yet complex, coding technique for the symmetric L-description source coding problem. We propose an alternative approach, that uses the quantized samples of a bandlimited source as "descriptions". By the Nyquist condition, the source can be reconstructed if enough s...

  4. Recidivism among Child Sexual Abusers: Initial Results of a 13-Year Longitudinal Random Sample

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick, Steven; Marsh, Robert

    2009-01-01

    In the initial analysis of data from a random sample of all those charged with child sexual abuse in Idaho over a 13-year period, only one predictive variable was found that related to recidivism of those convicted. Variables such as ethnicity, relationship, gender, and age differences did not show a significant or even large association with…

  5. Reinforcing Sampling Distributions through a Randomization-Based Activity for Introducing ANOVA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Laura; Doehler, Kirsten

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the use of a randomization-based activity to introduce the ANOVA F-test to students. The two main goals of this activity are to successfully teach students to comprehend ANOVA F-tests and to increase student comprehension of sampling distributions. Four sections of students in an advanced introductory statistics course…

  6. Flexible sampling large-scale social networks by self-adjustable random walk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xiao-Ke; Zhu, Jonathan J. H.

    2016-12-01

    Online social networks (OSNs) have become an increasingly attractive gold mine for academic and commercial researchers. However, research on OSNs faces a number of difficult challenges. One bottleneck lies in the massive quantity and often unavailability of OSN population data. Sampling perhaps becomes the only feasible solution to the problems. How to draw samples that can represent the underlying OSNs has remained a formidable task because of a number of conceptual and methodological reasons. Especially, most of the empirically-driven studies on network sampling are confined to simulated data or sub-graph data, which are fundamentally different from real and complete-graph OSNs. In the current study, we propose a flexible sampling method, called Self-Adjustable Random Walk (SARW), and test it against with the population data of a real large-scale OSN. We evaluate the strengths of the sampling method in comparison with four prevailing methods, including uniform, breadth-first search (BFS), random walk (RW), and revised RW (i.e., MHRW) sampling. We try to mix both induced-edge and external-edge information of sampled nodes together in the same sampling process. Our results show that the SARW sampling method has been able to generate unbiased samples of OSNs with maximal precision and minimal cost. The study is helpful for the practice of OSN research by providing a highly needed sampling tools, for the methodological development of large-scale network sampling by comparative evaluations of existing sampling methods, and for the theoretical understanding of human networks by highlighting discrepancies and contradictions between existing knowledge/assumptions of large-scale real OSN data.

  7. Multinomial mixture model with heterogeneous classification probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, M.D.; Gray, B.R.

    2011-01-01

    Royle and Link (Ecology 86(9):2505-2512, 2005) proposed an analytical method that allowed estimation of multinomial distribution parameters and classification probabilities from categorical data measured with error. While useful, we demonstrate algebraically and by simulations that this method yields biased multinomial parameter estimates when the probabilities of correct category classifications vary among sampling units. We address this shortcoming by treating these probabilities as logit-normal random variables within a Bayesian framework. We use Markov chain Monte Carlo to compute Bayes estimates from a simulated sample from the posterior distribution. Based on simulations, this elaborated Royle-Link model yields nearly unbiased estimates of multinomial and correct classification probability estimates when classification probabilities are allowed to vary according to the normal distribution on the logit scale or according to the Beta distribution. The method is illustrated using categorical submersed aquatic vegetation data. ?? 2010 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

  8. Sample size calculations for micro-randomized trials in mHealth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Peng; Klasnja, Predrag; Tewari, Ambuj; Murphy, Susan A

    2016-05-30

    The use and development of mobile interventions are experiencing rapid growth. In "just-in-time" mobile interventions, treatments are provided via a mobile device, and they are intended to help an individual make healthy decisions 'in the moment,' and thus have a proximal, near future impact. Currently, the development of mobile interventions is proceeding at a much faster pace than that of associated data science methods. A first step toward developing data-based methods is to provide an experimental design for testing the proximal effects of these just-in-time treatments. In this paper, we propose a 'micro-randomized' trial design for this purpose. In a micro-randomized trial, treatments are sequentially randomized throughout the conduct of the study, with the result that each participant may be randomized at the 100s or 1000s of occasions at which a treatment might be provided. Further, we develop a test statistic for assessing the proximal effect of a treatment as well as an associated sample size calculator. We conduct simulation evaluations of the sample size calculator in various settings. Rules of thumb that might be used in designing a micro-randomized trial are discussed. This work is motivated by our collaboration on the HeartSteps mobile application designed to increase physical activity. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. Occupational position and its relation to mental distress in a random sample of Danish residents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rugulies, Reiner Ernst; Madsen, Ida E H; Nielsen, Maj Britt D

    2010-01-01

    somatization symptoms (OR = 6.28, 95% CI = 1.39-28.46). CONCLUSIONS: Unskilled manual workers, the unemployed, and, to a lesser extent, the low-grade self-employed showed an increased level of mental distress. Activities to promote mental health in the Danish population should be directed toward these groups.......PURPOSE: To analyze the distribution of depressive, anxiety, and somatization symptoms across different occupational positions in a random sample of Danish residents. METHODS: The study sample consisted of 591 Danish residents (50% women), aged 20-65, drawn from an age- and gender-stratified random...... sample of the Danish population. Participants filled out a survey that included the 92 item version of the Hopkins Symptom Checklist (SCL-92). We categorized occupational position into seven groups: high- and low-grade non-manual workers, skilled and unskilled manual workers, high- and low-grade self...

  10. Random sampling for a mental health survey in a deprived multi-ethnic area of Berlin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mundt, Adrian P; Aichberger, Marion C; Kliewe, Thomas; Ignatyev, Yuriy; Yayla, Seda; Heimann, Hannah; Schouler-Ocak, Meryam; Busch, Markus; Rapp, Michael; Heinz, Andreas; Ströhle, Andreas

    2012-12-01

    The aim of the study was to assess the response to random sampling for a mental health survey in a deprived multi-ethnic area of Berlin, Germany, with a large Turkish-speaking population. A random list from the registration office with 1,000 persons stratified by age and gender was retrieved from the population registry and these persons were contacted using a three-stage design including written information, telephone calls and personal contact at home. A female bilingual interviewer contacted persons with Turkish names. Of the persons on the list, 202 were not living in the area, one was deceased, 502 did not respond. Of the 295 responders, 152 explicitly refused(51.5%) to participate. We retained a sample of 143 participants(48.5%) representing the rate of multi-ethnicity in the area (52.1% migrants in the sample vs. 53.5% in the population). Turkish migrants were over-represented(28.9% in the sample vs. 18.6% in the population). Polish migrants (2.1 vs. 5.3% in the population) and persons from the former Yugoslavia (1.4 vs. 4.8% in the population)were under-represented. Bilingual contact procedures can improve the response rates of the most common migrant populations to random sampling if migrants of the same origin gate the contact. High non-contact and non-response rates for migrant and non-migrant populations in deprived urban areas remain a challenge for obtaining representative random samples.

  11. A scenario tree model for the Canadian Notifiable Avian Influenza Surveillance System and its application to estimation of probability of freedom and sample size determination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christensen, Jette; Stryhn, Henrik; Vallières, André; El Allaki, Farouk

    2011-05-01

    In 2008, Canada designed and implemented the Canadian Notifiable Avian Influenza Surveillance System (CanNAISS) with six surveillance activities in a phased-in approach. CanNAISS was a surveillance system because it had more than one surveillance activity or component in 2008: passive surveillance; pre-slaughter surveillance; and voluntary enhanced notifiable avian influenza surveillance. Our objectives were to give a short overview of two active surveillance components in CanNAISS; describe the CanNAISS scenario tree model and its application to estimation of probability of populations being free of NAI virus infection and sample size determination. Our data from the pre-slaughter surveillance component included diagnostic test results from 6296 serum samples representing 601 commercial chicken and turkey farms collected from 25 August 2008 to 29 January 2009. In addition, we included data from a sub-population of farms with high biosecurity standards: 36,164 samples from 55 farms sampled repeatedly over the 24 months study period from January 2007 to December 2008. All submissions were negative for Notifiable Avian Influenza (NAI) virus infection. We developed the CanNAISS scenario tree model, so that it will estimate the surveillance component sensitivity and the probability of a population being free of NAI at the 0.01 farm-level and 0.3 within-farm-level prevalences. We propose that a general model, such as the CanNAISS scenario tree model, may have a broader application than more detailed models that require disease specific input parameters, such as relative risk estimates. Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Choice probability generating functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

    2013-01-01

    This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications. The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended...

  13. Assessment of proteinuria by using protein: creatinine index in random urine sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Dilshad Ahmed; Ahmad, Tariq Mahmood; Qureshil, Ayaz Hussain; Halim, Abdul; Ahmad, Mumtaz; Afzal, Saeed

    2005-10-01

    To assess the quantitative measurement of proteinuria by using random urine protein:creatinine index/ratio in comparison with 24 hours urinary protein excretion in patients of renal diseases having normal glomerular filtration rate. One hundred and thirty patients, 94 males and 36 females, with an age range of 5 to 60 years; having proteinuria of more than 150 mg/day were included in this study. Qualitative urinary protein estimation was done on random urine specimen by dipstick. Quantitative measurement of protein in the random and 24 hours urine specimens were carried out by a method based on the formation of a red complex of protein with pyrogallal red in acid medium on Micro lab 200 (Merck). Estimation of creatinine was done on Selectra -2 (Merck) by Jaffe's reaction. The urine protein:creatinine index and ratio were calculated by dividing the urine protein concentration (mg/L) by urine creatinine concentration (mmol/L) multilplied by 10 and mg/mg respectively. The protein:creatinine index and ratio of more than 140 and 0.18 respectively in a random urine sample indicated pathological proteinuria. An excellent correlation (r=0.96) was found between random urine protein:creatinine index/ratio and standard 24 hours urinary protein excretion in these patients (pprotein:creatinine index in random urine is a convenient, quick and reliable method of estimation of proteinuria as compared to 24 hours of urinary protein excretion for diagnosis and monitoring of renal diseases in our medical setup.

  14. Generalized essential energy space random walks to more effectively accelerate solute sampling in aqueous environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Chao; Zheng, Lianqing; Yang, Wei

    2012-01-28

    Molecular dynamics sampling can be enhanced via the promoting of potential energy fluctuations, for instance, based on a Hamiltonian modified with the addition of a potential-energy-dependent biasing term. To overcome the diffusion sampling issue, which reveals the fact that enlargement of event-irrelevant energy fluctuations may abolish sampling efficiency, the essential energy space random walk (EESRW) approach was proposed earlier. To more effectively accelerate the sampling of solute conformations in aqueous environment, in the current work, we generalized the EESRW method to a two-dimension-EESRW (2D-EESRW) strategy. Specifically, the essential internal energy component of a focused region and the essential interaction energy component between the focused region and the environmental region are employed to define the two-dimensional essential energy space. This proposal is motivated by the general observation that in different conformational events, the two essential energy components have distinctive interplays. Model studies on the alanine dipeptide and the aspartate-arginine peptide demonstrate sampling improvement over the original one-dimension-EESRW strategy; with the same biasing level, the present generalization allows more effective acceleration of the sampling of conformational transitions in aqueous solution. The 2D-EESRW generalization is readily extended to higher dimension schemes and employed in more advanced enhanced-sampling schemes, such as the recent orthogonal space random walk method. © 2012 American Institute of Physics

  15. Multilayer pixel super-resolution lensless in-line holographic microscope with random sample movement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mingjun; Feng, Shaodong; Wu, Jigang

    2017-10-06

    We report a multilayer lensless in-line holographic microscope (LIHM) with improved imaging resolution by using the pixel super-resolution technique and random sample movement. In our imaging system, a laser beam illuminated the sample and a CMOS imaging sensor located behind the sample recorded the in-line hologram for image reconstruction. During the imaging process, the sample was moved by hand randomly and the in-line holograms were acquired sequentially. Then the sample image was reconstructed from an enhanced-resolution hologram obtained from multiple low-resolution in-line holograms by applying the pixel super-resolution (PSR) technique. We studied the resolution enhancement effects by using the U.S. Air Force (USAF) target as the sample in numerical simulation and experiment. We also showed that multilayer pixel super-resolution images can be obtained by imaging a triple-layer sample made with the filamentous algae on the middle layer and microspheres with diameter of 2 μm on the top and bottom layers. Our pixel super-resolution LIHM provides a compact and low-cost solution for microscopic imaging and is promising for many biomedical applications.

  16. Characterization of Electron Microscopes with Binary Pseudo-random Multilayer Test Samples

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    V Yashchuk; R Conley; E Anderson; S Barber; N Bouet; W McKinney; P Takacs; D Voronov

    2011-12-31

    Verification of the reliability of metrology data from high quality X-ray optics requires that adequate methods for test and calibration of the instruments be developed. For such verification for optical surface profilometers in the spatial frequency domain, a modulation transfer function (MTF) calibration method based on binary pseudo-random (BPR) gratings and arrays has been suggested [1] and [2] and proven to be an effective calibration method for a number of interferometric microscopes, a phase shifting Fizeau interferometer, and a scatterometer [5]. Here we describe the details of development of binary pseudo-random multilayer (BPRML) test samples suitable for characterization of scanning (SEM) and transmission (TEM) electron microscopes. We discuss the results of TEM measurements with the BPRML test samples fabricated from a WiSi2/Si multilayer coating with pseudo-randomly distributed layers. In particular, we demonstrate that significant information about the metrological reliability of the TEM measurements can be extracted even when the fundamental frequency of the BPRML sample is smaller than the Nyquist frequency of the measurements. The measurements demonstrate a number of problems related to the interpretation of the SEM and TEM data. Note that similar BPRML test samples can be used to characterize X-ray microscopes. Corresponding work with X-ray microscopes is in progress.

  17. Characterization of electron microscopes with binary pseudo-random multilayer test samples

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yashchuk, Valeriy V., E-mail: VVYashchuk@lbl.gov [Advanced Light Source, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States); Conley, Raymond [NSLS-II, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY 11973 (United States); Anderson, Erik H. [Center for X-ray Optics, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States); Barber, Samuel K. [Advanced Light Source, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States); Bouet, Nathalie [NSLS-II, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY 11973 (United States); McKinney, Wayne R. [Advanced Light Source, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States); Takacs, Peter Z. [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY 11973 (United States); Voronov, Dmitriy L. [Advanced Light Source, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States)

    2011-09-01

    Verification of the reliability of metrology data from high quality X-ray optics requires that adequate methods for test and calibration of the instruments be developed. For such verification for optical surface profilometers in the spatial frequency domain, a modulation transfer function (MTF) calibration method based on binary pseudo-random (BPR) gratings and arrays has been suggested and proven to be an effective calibration method for a number of interferometric microscopes, a phase shifting Fizeau interferometer, and a scatterometer [5]. Here we describe the details of development of binary pseudo-random multilayer (BPRML) test samples suitable for characterization of scanning (SEM) and transmission (TEM) electron microscopes. We discuss the results of TEM measurements with the BPRML test samples fabricated from a WiSi{sub 2}/Si multilayer coating with pseudo-randomly distributed layers. In particular, we demonstrate that significant information about the metrological reliability of the TEM measurements can be extracted even when the fundamental frequency of the BPRML sample is smaller than the Nyquist frequency of the measurements. The measurements demonstrate a number of problems related to the interpretation of the SEM and TEM data. Note that similar BPRML test samples can be used to characterize X-ray microscopes. Corresponding work with X-ray microscopes is in progress.

  18. Effect of slaughterhouse and day of sample on the probability of a pig carcass being Salmonella-positive according to the Enterobacteriaceae count in the largest Brazilian pork production region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corbellini, Luís Gustavo; Júnior, Alfredo Bianco; de Freitas Costa, Eduardo; Duarte, Ana Sofia Ribeiro; Albuquerque, Elenita Ruttscheidt; Kich, Jalusa Deon; Cardoso, Marisa; Nauta, Maarten

    2016-07-02

    Sources of contamination of carcasses during slaughter include infected pigs as well as environmentally related sources. There are many microbial indicators that can be used in the processing of food to assess food hygiene and the safety of food processing. The presence of some microbial indicators can be viewed as a result of direct or indirect contamination of a food with fecal material. The presence of Enterobacteriaceae is often used as a hygiene indicator, as they are found both in the environment and in the intestine of warm-blooded animals. An association between Salmonella isolation and Enterobacteriaceae count (EC) on pre-chill carcasses has been described, however the impact of slaughterhouse and the day of sampling on the occurrence of Salmonella has not been previously investigated. To this end, mixed logistic regressions (MLRs) with random effects and fixed slopes were performed to assess the change in EC and its correlation with Salmonella occurrence using two data sets. The first describes the EC and Salmonella isolation in 60 pork carcasses in one slaughterhouse sampled at 11 different slaughter steps, including the carcass as a random effect. The second describes the EC and Salmonella isolation on 1150 pre-chill carcasses sampled in 13 slaughterhouses over 230 sampling days, and the model combined two random intercepts, slaughterhouse and date of sampling nested with slaughterhouse (day/slaughterhouse). Statistically significant associations (p<0.0001) between the log of the EC and Salmonella occurrence were found in all models. Nevertheless, although a strong association was found between Enterobacteriaceae and Salmonella contamination in pork carcasses, this association was not constant, given that there was a high variation in the probability of a carcass being positive for Salmonella according to the EC mainly between days of samples. The effect of the day of sampling on Salmonella prevalence was so large that the predictive value of the EC

  19. Changes in Sexual Behavior and Attitudes Across Generations and Gender Among a Population-Based Probability Sample From an Urbanizing Province in Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Techasrivichien, Teeranee; Darawuttimaprakorn, Niphon; Punpuing, Sureeporn; Musumari, Patou Masika; Lukhele, Bhekumusa Wellington; El-Saaidi, Christina; Suguimoto, S Pilar; Feldman, Mitchell D; Ono-Kihara, Masako; Kihara, Masahiro

    2016-02-01

    Thailand has undergone rapid modernization with implications for changes in sexual norms. We investigated sexual behavior and attitudes across generations and gender among a probability sample of the general population of Nonthaburi province located near Bangkok in 2012. A tablet-based survey was performed among 2,138 men and women aged 15-59 years identified through a three-stage, stratified, probability proportional to size, clustered sampling. Descriptive statistical analysis was carried out accounting for the effects of multistage sampling. Relationship of age and gender to sexual behavior and attitudes was analyzed by bivariate analysis followed by multivariate logistic regression analysis to adjust for possible confounding. Patterns of sexual behavior and attitudes varied substantially across generations and gender. We found strong evidence for a decline in the age of sexual initiation, a shift in the type of the first sexual partner, and a greater rate of acceptance of adolescent premarital sex among younger generations. The study highlighted profound changes among young women as evidenced by a higher number of lifetime sexual partners as compared to older women. In contrast to the significant gender gap in older generations, sexual profiles of Thai young women have evolved to resemble those of young men with attitudes gradually converging to similar sexual standards. Our data suggest that higher education, being never-married, and an urban lifestyle may have been associated with these changes. Our study found that Thai sexual norms are changing dramatically. It is vital to continue monitoring such changes, considering the potential impact on the HIV/STIs epidemic and unintended pregnancies.

  20. Accounting for Sampling Error in Genetic Eigenvalues Using Random Matrix Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sztepanacz, Jacqueline L; Blows, Mark W

    2017-07-01

    The distribution of genetic variance in multivariate phenotypes is characterized by the empirical spectral distribution of the eigenvalues of the genetic covariance matrix. Empirical estimates of genetic eigenvalues from random effects linear models are known to be overdispersed by sampling error, where large eigenvalues are biased upward, and small eigenvalues are biased downward. The overdispersion of the leading eigenvalues of sample covariance matrices have been demonstrated to conform to the Tracy-Widom (TW) distribution. Here we show that genetic eigenvalues estimated using restricted maximum likelihood (REML) in a multivariate random effects model with an unconstrained genetic covariance structure will also conform to the TW distribution after empirical scaling and centering. However, where estimation procedures using either REML or MCMC impose boundary constraints, the resulting genetic eigenvalues tend not be TW distributed. We show how using confidence intervals from sampling distributions of genetic eigenvalues without reference to the TW distribution is insufficient protection against mistaking sampling error as genetic variance, particularly when eigenvalues are small. By scaling such sampling distributions to the appropriate TW distribution, the critical value of the TW statistic can be used to determine if the magnitude of a genetic eigenvalue exceeds the sampling error for each eigenvalue in the spectral distribution of a given genetic covariance matrix. Copyright © 2017 by the Genetics Society of America.

  1. Physical Activity Improves Verbal and Spatial Memory in Older Adults with Probable Mild Cognitive Impairment: A 6-Month Randomized Controlled Trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lindsay S. Nagamatsu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We report secondary findings from a randomized controlled trial on the effects of exercise on memory in older adults with probable MCI. We randomized 86 women aged 70–80 years with subjective memory complaints into one of three groups: resistance training, aerobic training, or balance and tone (control. All participants exercised twice per week for six months. We measured verbal memory and learning using the Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Test (RAVLT and spatial memory using a computerized test, before and after trial completion. We found that the aerobic training group remembered significantly more items in the loss after interference condition of the RAVLT compared with the control group after six months of training. In addition, both experimental groups showed improved spatial memory performance in the most difficult condition where they were required to memorize the spatial location of three items, compared with the control group. Lastly, we found a significant correlation between spatial memory performance and overall physical capacity after intervention in the aerobic training group. Taken together, our results provide support for the prevailing notion that exercise can positively impact cognitive functioning and may represent an effective strategy to improve memory in those who have begun to experience cognitive decline.

  2. Ruin probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asmussen, Søren; Albrecher, Hansjörg

    , extensions of the classical compound Poisson model to allow for reserve-dependent premiums, Markov-modulation, periodicity, change of measure techniques, phase-type distributions as a computational vehicle and the connection to other applied probability areas, like queueing theory. In this substantially......The book gives a comprehensive treatment of the classical and modern ruin probability theory. Some of the topics are Lundberg's inequality, the Cramér-Lundberg approximation, exact solutions, other approximations (e.g., for heavy-tailed claim size distributions), finite horizon ruin probabilities...

  3. Ruin probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asmussen, Søren; Albrecher, Hansjörg

    The book gives a comprehensive treatment of the classical and modern ruin probability theory. Some of the topics are Lundberg's inequality, the Cramér-Lundberg approximation, exact solutions, other approximations (e.g., for heavy-tailed claim size distributions), finite horizon ruin probabilities...... updated and extended second version, new topics include stochastic control, fluctuation theory for Levy processes, Gerber–Shiu functions and dependence......., extensions of the classical compound Poisson model to allow for reserve-dependent premiums, Markov-modulation, periodicity, change of measure techniques, phase-type distributions as a computational vehicle and the connection to other applied probability areas, like queueing theory. In this substantially...

  4. On analysis-based two-step interpolation methods for randomly sampled seismic data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Pengliang; Gao, Jinghuai; Chen, Wenchao

    2013-02-01

    Interpolating the missing traces of regularly or irregularly sampled seismic record is an exceedingly important issue in the geophysical community. Many modern acquisition and reconstruction methods are designed to exploit the transform domain sparsity of the few randomly recorded but informative seismic data using thresholding techniques. In this paper, to regularize randomly sampled seismic data, we introduce two accelerated, analysis-based two-step interpolation algorithms, the analysis-based FISTA (fast iterative shrinkage-thresholding algorithm) and the FPOCS (fast projection onto convex sets) algorithm from the IST (iterative shrinkage-thresholding) algorithm and the POCS (projection onto convex sets) algorithm. A MATLAB package is developed for the implementation of these thresholding-related interpolation methods. Based on this package, we compare the reconstruction performance of these algorithms, using synthetic and real seismic data. Combined with several thresholding strategies, the accelerated convergence of the proposed methods is also highlighted.

  5. Hemodynamic and glucometabolic factors fail to predict renal function in a random population sample

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pareek, M.; Nielsen, M.; Olesen, Thomas Bastholm

    2015-01-01

    Objective: To determine whether baseline hemodynamic and/or glucometabolic risk factors could predict renal function at follow-up, independently of baseline serum creatinine, in survivors from a random population sample. Design and method: We examined associations between baseline serum creatinine...... indices of beta-cell function (HOMA-2B), insulin sensitivity (HOMA-2S), and insulin resistance (HOMA-2IR)), traditional cardiovascular risk factors (age, sex, smoking status, body mass index, diabetes mellitus, total serum cholesterol), and later renal function determined as serum cystatin C in 238 men...... and 7 women aged 38 to 49 years at the time of inclusion, using multivariable linear regression analysis (p-entry 0.05, p-removal 0.20). Study subjects came from a random population based sample and were included 1974-1992, whilst the follow-up with cystatin C measurement was performed 2002...

  6. An inversion method based on random sampling for real-time MEG neuroimaging

    CERN Document Server

    Pascarella, Annalisa

    2016-01-01

    The MagnetoEncephaloGraphy (MEG) has gained great interest in neurorehabilitation training due to its high temporal resolution. The challenge is to localize the active regions of the brain in a fast and accurate way. In this paper we use an inversion method based on random spatial sampling to solve the real-time MEG inverse problem. Several numerical tests on synthetic but realistic data show that the method takes just a few hundredths of a second on a laptop to produce an accurate map of the electric activity inside the brain. Moreover, it requires very little memory storage. For this reasons the random sampling method is particularly attractive in real-time MEG applications.

  7. Modified Exponential Type Estimator for Population Mean Using Auxiliary Variables in Stratified Random Sampling

    OpenAIRE

    Özel, Gamze

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, a new exponential type estimator is developed in the stratified random sampling for the population mean using auxiliary variable information. In order to evaluate efficiency of the introduced estimator, we first review some estimators and study the optimum property of the suggested strategy. To judge the merits of the suggested class of estimators over others under the optimal condition, simulation study and real data applications are conducted. The results show that the introduc...

  8. Effectiveness of hand hygiene education among a random sample of women from the community

    OpenAIRE

    Ubheeram, J.; Biranjia-Hurdoyal, S.D.

    2017-01-01

    Summary Objective. The effectiveness of hand hygiene education was investigated by studying the hand hygiene awareness and bacterial hand contamination among a random sample of 170 women in the community. Methods. Questionnaire was used to assess the hand hygiene awareness score, followed by swabbing of the dominant hand. Bacterial identification was done by conventional biochemical tests. Results. Better hand hygiene awareness score was significantly associated with age, scarce bacterial gro...

  9. Control Capacity and A Random Sampling Method in Exploring Controllability of Complex Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Jia, Tao; Barab?si, Albert-L?szl?

    2013-01-01

    Controlling complex systems is a fundamental challenge of network science. Recent advances indicate that control over the system can be achieved through a minimum driver node set (MDS). The existence of multiple MDS's suggests that nodes do not participate in control equally, prompting us to quantify their participations. Here we introduce control capacity quantifying the likelihood that a node is a driver node. To efficiently measure this quantity, we develop a random sampling algorithm. Thi...

  10. Classification of epileptic EEG signals based on simple random sampling and sequential feature selection

    OpenAIRE

    Ghayab, Hadi Ratham Al; Li, Yan; Abdulla, Shahab; Diykh, Mohammed; Wan, Xiangkui

    2016-01-01

    Electroencephalogram (EEG) signals are used broadly in the medical fields. The main applications of EEG signals are the diagnosis and treatment of diseases such as epilepsy, Alzheimer, sleep problems and so on. This paper presents a new method which extracts and selects features from multi-channel EEG signals. This research focuses on three main points. Firstly, simple random sampling (SRS) technique is used to extract features from the time domain of EEG signals. Secondly, the sequential fea...

  11. A panel data analysis of the probability of childbirth in a Japanese sample: New evidence of the two-child norm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morita, Masahito; Ohtsuki, Hisashi; Hiraiwa-Hasegawa, Mariko

    2016-01-01

    To reveal the conditions that could facilitate childbirth in modern humans, it is necessary to analyze not only cross-sectional surveys but also panel data that track the same person for a long period. In this study, we analyzed factors that would influence the probability of childbirth. We analyzed Japanese panel data with a Cox proportional hazard model. Subjects of our analysis were married women and their childbirth records from 2004 to 2009. Contrary to the predictions based on the theory of behavioral ecology, we found no positive relationship between good parental conditions for childcare, such as high income, increase in income, or coresidence with parents (i.e., grandparents of children), and the occurrence of childbirth. We found that the number of existing children had a significant impact on the probability of childbirth. The likelihood of further childbirth by couples with one child was nearly equal to that of childless ones. However, the corresponding likelihood of couples with two children was about five times lower than that of childless ones. The total fertility rates in modern developed societies are quite low and couples prefer having two children. This trend is known as the two-child norm, but it is a paradoxical phenomenon in terms of fitness maximization. Our result provided new quantitative evidence of this norm. This study revealed that the number of existing children being less than two was one of the factors associated with further childbearing in our Japanese sample. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Precision of systematic and random sampling in clustered populations: habitat patches and aggregating organisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGarvey, Richard; Burch, Paul; Matthews, Janet M

    2016-01-01

    Natural populations of plants and animals spatially cluster because (1) suitable habitat is patchy, and (2) within suitable habitat, individuals aggregate further into clusters of higher density. We compare the precision of random and systematic field sampling survey designs under these two processes of species clustering. Second, we evaluate the performance of 13 estimators for the variance of the sample mean from a systematic survey. Replicated simulated surveys, as counts from 100 transects, allocated either randomly or systematically within the study region, were used to estimate population density in six spatial point populations including habitat patches and Matérn circular clustered aggregations of organisms, together and in combination. The standard one-start aligned systematic survey design, a uniform 10 x 10 grid of transects, was much more precise. Variances of the 10 000 replicated systematic survey mean densities were one-third to one-fifth of those from randomly allocated transects, implying transect sample sizes giving equivalent precision by random survey would need to be three to five times larger. Organisms being restricted to patches of habitat was alone sufficient to yield this precision advantage for the systematic design. But this improved precision for systematic sampling in clustered populations is underestimated by standard variance estimators used to compute confidence intervals. True variance for the survey sample mean was computed from the variance of 10 000 simulated survey mean estimates. Testing 10 published and three newly proposed variance estimators, the two variance estimators (v) that corrected for inter-transect correlation (ν₈ and ν(W)) were the most accurate and also the most precise in clustered populations. These greatly outperformed the two "post-stratification" variance estimators (ν₂ and ν₃) that are now more commonly applied in systematic surveys. Similar variance estimator performance rankings were found with

  13. Ignition Probability

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — USFS, State Forestry, BLM, and DOI fire occurrence point locations from 1987 to 2008 were combined and converted into a fire occurrence probability or density grid...

  14. Determining optimal sample sizes for multi-stage randomized clinical trials using value of information methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willan, Andrew; Kowgier, Matthew

    2008-01-01

    Traditional sample size calculations for randomized clinical trials depend on somewhat arbitrarily chosen factors, such as Type I and II errors. An effectiveness trial (otherwise known as a pragmatic trial or management trial) is essentially an effort to inform decision-making, i.e., should treatment be adopted over standard? Taking a societal perspective and using Bayesian decision theory, Willan and Pinto (Stat. Med. 2005; 24:1791-1806 and Stat. Med. 2006; 25:720) show how to determine the sample size that maximizes the expected net gain, i.e., the difference between the cost of doing the trial and the value of the information gained from the results. These methods are extended to include multi-stage adaptive designs, with a solution given for a two-stage design. The methods are applied to two examples. As demonstrated by the two examples, substantial increases in the expected net gain (ENG) can be realized by using multi-stage adaptive designs based on expected value of information methods. In addition, the expected sample size and total cost may be reduced. Exact solutions have been provided for the two-stage design. Solutions for higher-order designs may prove to be prohibitively complex and approximate solutions may be required. The use of multi-stage adaptive designs for randomized clinical trials based on expected value of sample information methods leads to substantial gains in the ENG and reductions in the expected sample size and total cost.

  15. Sample size calculations for pilot randomized trials: a confidence interval approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cocks, Kim; Torgerson, David J

    2013-02-01

    To describe a method using confidence intervals (CIs) to estimate the sample size for a pilot randomized trial. Using one-sided CIs and the estimated effect size that would be sought in a large trial, we calculated the sample size needed for pilot trials. Using an 80% one-sided CI, we estimated that a pilot trial should have at least 9% of the sample size of the main planned trial. Using the estimated effect size difference for the main trial and using a one-sided CI, this allows us to calculate a sample size for a pilot trial, which will make its results more useful than at present. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Women's Experiences With Genital Touching, Sexual Pleasure, and Orgasm: Results From a U.S. Probability Sample of Women Ages 18 to 94.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herbenick, Debby; Fu, Tsung-Chieh Jane; Arter, Jennifer; Sanders, Stephanie A; Dodge, Brian

    2018-02-17

    The study purpose was to assess, in a U.S. probability sample of women, experiences related to orgasm, sexual pleasure, and genital touching. In June 2015, 1,055 women ages 18 to 94 from the nationally representative GfK KnowledgePanel® completed a confidential, Internet-based survey. While 18.4% of women reported that intercourse alone was sufficient for orgasm, 36.6% reported clitoral stimulation was necessary for orgasm during intercourse, and an additional 36% indicated that, while clitoral stimulation was not needed, their orgasms feel better if their clitoris is stimulated during intercourse. Women reported diverse preferences for genital touch location, pressure, shape, and pattern. Clinical, therapeutic, and educational implications are discussed.

  17. Normal probability plots with confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chantarangsi, Wanpen; Liu, Wei; Bretz, Frank; Kiatsupaibul, Seksan; Hayter, Anthony J; Wan, Fang

    2015-01-01

    Normal probability plots are widely used as a statistical tool for assessing whether an observed simple random sample is drawn from a normally distributed population. The users, however, have to judge subjectively, if no objective rule is provided, whether the plotted points fall close to a straight line. In this paper, we focus on how a normal probability plot can be augmented by intervals for all the points so that, if the population distribution is normal, then all the points should fall into the corresponding intervals simultaneously with probability 1-α. These simultaneous 1-α probability intervals provide therefore an objective mean to judge whether the plotted points fall close to the straight line: the plotted points fall close to the straight line if and only if all the points fall into the corresponding intervals. The powers of several normal probability plot based (graphical) tests and the most popular nongraphical Anderson-Darling and Shapiro-Wilk tests are compared by simulation. Based on this comparison, recommendations are given in Section 3 on which graphical tests should be used in what circumstances. An example is provided to illustrate the methods. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  18. Estimating the Size of a Large Network and its Communities from a Random Sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lin; Karbasi, Amin; Crawford, Forrest W

    2016-01-01

    Most real-world networks are too large to be measured or studied directly and there is substantial interest in estimating global network properties from smaller sub-samples. One of the most important global properties is the number of vertices/nodes in the network. Estimating the number of vertices in a large network is a major challenge in computer science, epidemiology, demography, and intelligence analysis. In this paper we consider a population random graph G = (V, E) from the stochastic block model (SBM) with K communities/blocks. A sample is obtained by randomly choosing a subset W ⊆ V and letting G(W) be the induced subgraph in G of the vertices in W. In addition to G(W), we observe the total degree of each sampled vertex and its block membership. Given this partial information, we propose an efficient PopULation Size Estimation algorithm, called PULSE, that accurately estimates the size of the whole population as well as the size of each community. To support our theoretical analysis, we perform an exhaustive set of experiments to study the effects of sample size, K, and SBM model parameters on the accuracy of the estimates. The experimental results also demonstrate that PULSE significantly outperforms a widely-used method called the network scale-up estimator in a wide variety of scenarios.

  19. Random Evolutionary Dynamics Driven by Fitness and House-of-Cards Mutations: Sampling Formulae

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huillet, Thierry E.

    2017-07-01

    We first revisit the multi-allelic mutation-fitness balance problem, especially when mutations obey a house of cards condition, where the discrete-time deterministic evolutionary dynamics of the allelic frequencies derives from a Shahshahani potential. We then consider multi-allelic Wright-Fisher stochastic models whose deviation to neutrality is from the Shahshahani mutation/selection potential. We next focus on the weak selection, weak mutation cases and, making use of a Gamma calculus, we compute the normalizing partition functions of the invariant probability densities appearing in their Wright-Fisher diffusive approximations. Using these results, generalized Ewens sampling formulae (ESF) from the equilibrium distributions are derived. We start treating the ESF in the mixed mutation/selection potential case and then we restrict ourselves to the ESF in the simpler house-of-cards mutations only situation. We also address some issues concerning sampling problems from infinitely-many alleles weak limits.

  20. Quantum Probabilities as Behavioral Probabilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vyacheslav I. Yukalov

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available We demonstrate that behavioral probabilities of human decision makers share many common features with quantum probabilities. This does not imply that humans are some quantum objects, but just shows that the mathematics of quantum theory is applicable to the description of human decision making. The applicability of quantum rules for describing decision making is connected with the nontrivial process of making decisions in the case of composite prospects under uncertainty. Such a process involves deliberations of a decision maker when making a choice. In addition to the evaluation of the utilities of considered prospects, real decision makers also appreciate their respective attractiveness. Therefore, human choice is not based solely on the utility of prospects, but includes the necessity of resolving the utility-attraction duality. In order to justify that human consciousness really functions similarly to the rules of quantum theory, we develop an approach defining human behavioral probabilities as the probabilities determined by quantum rules. We show that quantum behavioral probabilities of humans do not merely explain qualitatively how human decisions are made, but they predict quantitative values of the behavioral probabilities. Analyzing a large set of empirical data, we find good quantitative agreement between theoretical predictions and observed experimental data.

  1. Probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    S Varadhan, S R

    2001-01-01

    This volume presents topics in probability theory covered during a first-year graduate course given at the Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences. The necessary background material in measure theory is developed, including the standard topics, such as extension theorem, construction of measures, integration, product spaces, Radon-Nikodym theorem, and conditional expectation. In the first part of the book, characteristic functions are introduced, followed by the study of weak convergence of probability distributions. Then both the weak and strong limit theorems for sums of independent rando

  2. Nicotine therapy sampling to induce quit attempts among smokers unmotivated to quit: a randomized clinical trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carpenter, Matthew J; Hughes, John R; Gray, Kevin M; Wahlquist, Amy E; Saladin, Michael E; Alberg, Anthony J

    2011-11-28

    Rates of smoking cessation have not changed in a decade, accentuating the need for novel approaches to prompt quit attempts. Within a nationwide randomized clinical trial (N = 849) to induce further quit attempts and cessation, smokers currently unmotivated to quit were randomized to a practice quit attempt (PQA) alone or to nicotine replacement therapy (hereafter referred to as nicotine therapy), sampling within the context of a PQA. Following a 6-week intervention period, participants were followed up for 6 months to assess outcomes. The PQA intervention was designed to increase motivation, confidence, and coping skills. The combination of a PQA plus nicotine therapy sampling added samples of nicotine lozenges to enhance attitudes toward pharmacotherapy and to promote the use of additional cessation resources. Primary outcomes included the incidence of any ever occurring self-defined quit attempt and 24-hour quit attempt. Secondary measures included 7-day point prevalence abstinence at any time during the study (ie, floating abstinence) and at the final follow-up assessment. Compared with PQA intervention, nicotine therapy sampling was associated with a significantly higher incidence of any quit attempt (49% vs 40%; relative risk [RR], 1.2; 95% CI, 1.1-1.4) and any 24-hour quit attempt (43% vs 34%; 1.3; 1.1-1.5). Nicotine therapy sampling was marginally more likely to promote floating abstinence (19% vs 15%; RR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.0-1.7); 6-month point prevalence abstinence rates were no different between groups (16% vs 14%; 1.2; 0.9-1.6). Nicotine therapy sampling during a PQA represents a novel strategy to motivate smokers to make a quit attempt. clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00706979.

  3. Location and multi-depot vehicle routing for emergency vehicles using tour coverage and random sampling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alireza Goli

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Distribution and optimum allocation of emergency resources are the most important tasks, which need to be accomplished during crisis. When a natural disaster such as earthquake, flood, etc. takes place, it is necessary to deliver rescue efforts as quickly as possible. Therefore, it is important to find optimum location and distribution of emergency relief resources. When a natural disaster occurs, it is not possible to reach some damaged areas. In this paper, location and multi-depot vehicle routing for emergency vehicles using tour coverage and random sampling is investigated. In this study, there is no need to visit all the places and some demand points receive their needs from the nearest possible location. The proposed study is implemented for some randomly generated numbers in different sizes. The preliminary results indicate that the proposed method was capable of reaching desirable solutions in reasonable amount of time.

  4. ESTIMATION OF FINITE POPULATION MEAN USING RANDOM NON–RESPONSE IN SURVEY SAMPLING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Housila P. Singh

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper consider the problem of estimating the population mean under three different situations of random non–response envisaged by Singh et al (2000. Some ratio and product type estimators have been proposed and their properties are studied under an assumption that the number of sampling units on which information can not be obtained owing to random non–response follows some distribution. The suggested estimators are compared with the usual ratio and product estimators. An empirical study is carried out to show the performance of the suggested estimators over usual unbiased estimator, ratio and product estimators. A generalized version of the proposed ratio and product estimators is also given.

  5. Chi-Squared Test of Fit and Sample Size-A Comparison between a Random Sample Approach and a Chi-Square Value Adjustment Method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergh, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    Chi-square statistics are commonly used for tests of fit of measurement models. Chi-square is also sensitive to sample size, which is why several approaches to handle large samples in test of fit analysis have been developed. One strategy to handle the sample size problem may be to adjust the sample size in the analysis of fit. An alternative is to adopt a random sample approach. The purpose of this study was to analyze and to compare these two strategies using simulated data. Given an original sample size of 21,000, for reductions of sample sizes down to the order of 5,000 the adjusted sample size function works as good as the random sample approach. In contrast, when applying adjustments to sample sizes of lower order the adjustment function is less effective at approximating the chi-square value for an actual random sample of the relevant size. Hence, the fit is exaggerated and misfit under-estimated using the adjusted sample size function. Although there are big differences in chi-square values between the two approaches at lower sample sizes, the inferences based on the p-values may be the same.

  6. Randomized controlled trial on timing and number of sampling for bile aspiration cytology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsuchiya, Tomonori; Yokoyama, Yukihiro; Ebata, Tomoki; Igami, Tsuyoshi; Sugawara, Gen; Kato, Katsuyuki; Shimoyama, Yoshie; Nagino, Masato

    2014-06-01

    The issue on timing and number of bile sampling for exfoliative bile cytology is still unsettled. A total of 100 patients with cholangiocarcinoma undergoing resection after external biliary drainage were randomized into two groups: a 2-day group where bile was sampled five times per day for 2 days; and a 10-day group where bile was sampled once per day for 10 days (registered University Hospital Medical Information Network/ID 000005983). The outcome of 87 patients who underwent laparotomy was analyzed, 44 in the 2-day group and 43 in the 10-day group. There were no significant differences in patient characteristics between the two groups. Positivity after one sampling session was significantly lower in the 2-day group than in the 10-day group (17.0 ± 3.7% vs. 20.7 ± 3.5%, P = 0.034). However, cumulative positivity curves were similar and overlapped each other between both groups. The final cumulative positivity by the 10th sampling session was 52.3% in the 2-day group and 51.2% in the 10-day group. We observed a small increase in cumulative positivity after the 5th or 6th session in both groups. Bile cytology positivity is unlikely to be affected by sample time. © 2013 Japanese Society of Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery.

  7. Estimating the Size of a Large Network and its Communities from a Random Sample

    CERN Document Server

    Chen, Lin; Crawford, Forrest W

    2016-01-01

    Most real-world networks are too large to be measured or studied directly and there is substantial interest in estimating global network properties from smaller sub-samples. One of the most important global properties is the number of vertices/nodes in the network. Estimating the number of vertices in a large network is a major challenge in computer science, epidemiology, demography, and intelligence analysis. In this paper we consider a population random graph G = (V;E) from the stochastic block model (SBM) with K communities/blocks. A sample is obtained by randomly choosing a subset W and letting G(W) be the induced subgraph in G of the vertices in W. In addition to G(W), we observe the total degree of each sampled vertex and its block membership. Given this partial information, we propose an efficient PopULation Size Estimation algorithm, called PULSE, that correctly estimates the size of the whole population as well as the size of each community. To support our theoretical analysis, we perform an exhausti...

  8. Studies on spectral analysis of randomly sampled signals: Application to laser velocimetry data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sree, David

    1992-01-01

    Spectral analysis is very useful in determining the frequency characteristics of many turbulent flows, for example, vortex flows, tail buffeting, and other pulsating flows. It is also used for obtaining turbulence spectra from which the time and length scales associated with the turbulence structure can be estimated. These estimates, in turn, can be helpful for validation of theoretical/numerical flow turbulence models. Laser velocimetry (LV) is being extensively used in the experimental investigation of different types of flows, because of its inherent advantages; nonintrusive probing, high frequency response, no calibration requirements, etc. Typically, the output of an individual realization laser velocimeter is a set of randomly sampled velocity data. Spectral analysis of such data requires special techniques to obtain reliable estimates of correlation and power spectral density functions that describe the flow characteristics. FORTRAN codes for obtaining the autocorrelation and power spectral density estimates using the correlation-based slotting technique were developed. Extensive studies have been conducted on simulated first-order spectrum and sine signals to improve the spectral estimates. A first-order spectrum was chosen because it represents the characteristics of a typical one-dimensional turbulence spectrum. Digital prefiltering techniques, to improve the spectral estimates from randomly sampled data were applied. Studies show that the spectral estimates can be increased up to about five times the mean sampling rate.

  9. Prevalence and correlates of problematic smartphone use in a large random sample of Chinese undergraduates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Jiang; Liu, Tie-Qiao; Liao, Yan-Hui; Qi, Chang; He, Hao-Yu; Chen, Shu-Bao; Billieux, Joël

    2016-11-17

    Smartphones are becoming a daily necessity for most undergraduates in Mainland China. Because the present scenario of problematic smartphone use (PSU) is largely unexplored, in the current study we aimed to estimate the prevalence of PSU and to screen suitable predictors for PSU among Chinese undergraduates in the framework of the stress-coping theory. A sample of 1062 undergraduate smartphone users was recruited by means of the stratified cluster random sampling strategy between April and May 2015. The Problematic Cellular Phone Use Questionnaire was used to identify PSU. We evaluated five candidate risk factors for PSU by using logistic regression analysis while controlling for demographic characteristics and specific features of smartphone use. The prevalence of PSU among Chinese undergraduates was estimated to be 21.3%. The risk factors for PSU were majoring in the humanities, high monthly income from the family (≥1500 RMB), serious emotional symptoms, high perceived stress, and perfectionism-related factors (high doubts about actions, high parental expectations). PSU among undergraduates appears to be ubiquitous and thus constitutes a public health issue in Mainland China. Although further longitudinal studies are required to test whether PSU is a transient phenomenon or a chronic and progressive condition, our study successfully identified socio-demographic and psychological risk factors for PSU. These results, obtained from a random and thus representative sample of undergraduates, opens up new avenues in terms of prevention and regulation policies.

  10. Protein/creatinine ratio on random urine samples for prediction of proteinuria in preeclampsia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roudsari, F Vahid; Ayati, S; Ayatollahi, H; Shakeri, M T

    2012-01-01

    To evaluate Protein/Creatinine ratio on random urine samples for prediction of proteinuria in preeclampsia. This study was performed on 150 pregnant women who were hospitalized as preeclampsia in Ghaem Hospital during 2006. At first, a 24-hours urine sample was collected for each patient to determine protein/creatinine ratio. Then, 24-hours urine collection was analyzed for the evaluation of proteinuria. Statistical analysis was performed with SPSS software. A total of 150 patients entered the study. There was a significant relation between the 24-hours urine protein and protein/creatinine ratio (r = 0.659, P < 0.001). Since the measurement of protein/creatinine ratio is more accurate, reliable, and cost-effective, it can be replaced by the method of measurement the 24-hours urine protein.

  11. Disparities in adverse childhood experiences among sexual minority and heterosexual adults: results from a multi-state probability-based sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, Judith P; Blosnich, John

    2013-01-01

    Adverse childhood experiences (e.g., physical, sexual and emotional abuse, neglect, exposure to domestic violence, parental discord, familial mental illness, incarceration and substance abuse) constitute a major public health problem in the United States. The Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACE) scale is a standardized measure that captures multiple developmental risk factors beyond sexual, physical and emotional abuse. Lesbian, gay, and bisexual (i.e., sexual minority) individuals may experience disproportionately higher prevalence of adverse childhood experiences. To examine, using the ACE scale, prevalence of childhood physical, emotional, and sexual abuse and childhood household dysfunction among sexual minority and heterosexual adults. Analyses were conducted using a probability-based sample of data pooled from three U.S. states' Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) surveys (Maine, Washington, Wisconsin) that administered the ACE scale and collected information on sexual identity (n = 22,071). Compared with heterosexual respondents, gay/lesbian and bisexual individuals experienced increased odds of six of eight and seven of eight adverse childhood experiences, respectively. Sexual minority persons had higher rates of adverse childhood experiences (IRR = 1.66 gay/lesbian; 1.58 bisexual) compared to their heterosexual peers. Sexual minority individuals have increased exposure to multiple developmental risk factors beyond physical, sexual and emotional abuse. We recommend the use of the Adverse Childhood Experiences scale in future research examining health disparities among this minority population.

  12. Disparities in adverse childhood experiences among sexual minority and heterosexual adults: results from a multi-state probability-based sample.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Judith P Andersen

    Full Text Available Adverse childhood experiences (e.g., physical, sexual and emotional abuse, neglect, exposure to domestic violence, parental discord, familial mental illness, incarceration and substance abuse constitute a major public health problem in the United States. The Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACE scale is a standardized measure that captures multiple developmental risk factors beyond sexual, physical and emotional abuse. Lesbian, gay, and bisexual (i.e., sexual minority individuals may experience disproportionately higher prevalence of adverse childhood experiences.To examine, using the ACE scale, prevalence of childhood physical, emotional, and sexual abuse and childhood household dysfunction among sexual minority and heterosexual adults.Analyses were conducted using a probability-based sample of data pooled from three U.S. states' Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS surveys (Maine, Washington, Wisconsin that administered the ACE scale and collected information on sexual identity (n = 22,071.Compared with heterosexual respondents, gay/lesbian and bisexual individuals experienced increased odds of six of eight and seven of eight adverse childhood experiences, respectively. Sexual minority persons had higher rates of adverse childhood experiences (IRR = 1.66 gay/lesbian; 1.58 bisexual compared to their heterosexual peers.Sexual minority individuals have increased exposure to multiple developmental risk factors beyond physical, sexual and emotional abuse. We recommend the use of the Adverse Childhood Experiences scale in future research examining health disparities among this minority population.

  13. LOD score exclusion analyses for candidate QTLs using random population samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Hong-Wen

    2003-11-01

    While extensive analyses have been conducted to test for, no formal analyses have been conducted to test against, the importance of candidate genes as putative QTLs using random population samples. Previously, we developed an LOD score exclusion mapping approach for candidate genes for complex diseases. Here, we extend this LOD score approach for exclusion analyses of candidate genes for quantitative traits. Under this approach, specific genetic effects (as reflected by heritability) and inheritance models at candidate QTLs can be analyzed and if an LOD score is < or = -2.0, the locus can be excluded from having a heritability larger than that specified. Simulations show that this approach has high power to exclude a candidate gene from having moderate genetic effects if it is not a QTL and is robust to population admixture. Our exclusion analysis complements association analysis for candidate genes as putative QTLs in random population samples. The approach is applied to test the importance of Vitamin D receptor (VDR) gene as a potential QTL underlying the variation of bone mass, an important determinant of osteoporosis.

  14. A descriptive analysis of a representative sample of pediatric randomized controlled trials published in 2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomson Denise

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Randomized controlled trials (RCTs are the gold standard for trials assessing the effects of therapeutic interventions; therefore it is important to understand how they are conducted. Our objectives were to provide an overview of a representative sample of pediatric RCTs published in 2007 and assess the validity of their results. Methods We searched Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials using a pediatric filter and randomly selected 300 RCTs published in 2007. We extracted data on trial characteristics; outcomes; methodological quality; reporting; and registration and protocol characteristics. Trial registration and protocol availability were determined for each study based on the publication, an Internet search and an author survey. Results Most studies (83% were efficacy trials, 40% evaluated drugs, and 30% were placebo-controlled. Primary outcomes were specified in 41%; 43% reported on adverse events. At least one statistically significant outcome was reported in 77% of trials; 63% favored the treatment group. Trial registration was declared in 12% of publications and 23% were found through an Internet search. Risk of bias (ROB was high in 59% of trials, unclear in 33%, and low in 8%. Registered trials were more likely to have low ROB than non-registered trials (16% vs. 5%; p = 0.008. Effect sizes tended to be larger for trials at high vs. low ROB (0.28, 95% CI 0.21,0.35 vs. 0.16, 95% CI 0.07,0.25. Among survey respondents (50% response rate, the most common reason for trial registration was a publication requirement and for non-registration, a lack of familiarity with the process. Conclusions More than half of this random sample of pediatric RCTs published in 2007 was at high ROB and three quarters of trials were not registered. There is an urgent need to improve the design, conduct, and reporting of child health research.

  15. Modeling Transport in Fractured Porous Media with the Random-Walk Particle Method: The Transient Activity Range and the Particle-Transfer Probability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lehua Pan; G.S. Bodvarsson

    2001-10-22

    Multiscale features of transport processes in fractured porous media make numerical modeling a difficult task, both in conceptualization and computation. Modeling the mass transfer through the fracture-matrix interface is one of the critical issues in the simulation of transport in a fractured porous medium. Because conventional dual-continuum-based numerical methods are unable to capture the transient features of the diffusion depth into the matrix (unless they assume a passive matrix medium), such methods will overestimate the transport of tracers through the fractures, especially for the cases with large fracture spacing, resulting in artificial early breakthroughs. We have developed a new method for calculating the particle-transfer probability that can capture the transient features of diffusion depth into the matrix within the framework of the dual-continuum random-walk particle method (RWPM) by introducing a new concept of activity range of a particle within the matrix. Unlike the multiple-continuum approach, the new dual-continuum RWPM does not require using additional grid blocks to represent the matrix. It does not assume a passive matrix medium and can be applied to the cases where global water flow exists in both continua. The new method has been verified against analytical solutions for transport in the fracture-matrix systems with various fracture spacing. The calculations of the breakthrough curves of radionuclides from a potential repository to the water table in Yucca Mountain demonstrate the effectiveness of the new method for simulating 3-D, mountain-scale transport in a heterogeneous, fractured porous medium under variably saturated conditions.

  16. Is recovery from cannabis use problems different from alcohol and other drugs? Results from a national probability-based sample of the United States adult population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, John F; Greene, M Claire; Bergman, Brandon G

    2017-12-26

    The policy landscape regarding the legal status of cannabis (CAN) in the US and globally is changing rapidly. Research on CAN has lagged behind in many areas, none more so than in understanding how individuals suffering from the broad range of cannabis-related problems resolve those problems, and how their characteristics and problem resolution pathways are similar to or different from alcohol [ALC] or other drugs [OTH]. Greater knowledge could inform national policy debates as well as the nature and scope of any additional needed services as CAN population exposure increases. National, probability-based, cross-sectional sample of the US non-institutionalized adult population was conducted July-August 2016. Sample consisted of those who responded "yes" to the screening question, "Did you used to have a problem with alcohol or drugs but no longer do?" (63.4% response rate from 39,809 screened adults). Final weighted sample (N = 2002) was mostly male (60.0% [1.53%]), aged 25-49 (45.2% [1.63%]), non-Hispanic White (61.4% [1.64%]), employed (47.7% [1.61%]). Analyses compared CAN to ALC and OTH on demographic, clinical, treatment and recovery support services utilization, and quality of life (QOL) indices. 9.1% of the US adult population reported resolving a significant substance problem, and of these, 10.97% were CAN. Compared to ALC (M = 49.79) or OTH (M = 43.80), CAN were significantly younger (M = 39.41, p Compared to both ALC and OTH, CAN were significantly less likely to report use of inpatient treatment and used substantially less outpatient treatment, overall (p compared to ALC (M = 7.70) and OTH (M = 7.65). QOL indices were similar across groups. Approximately 2.4 million Americans have resolved a significant cannabis problem. Compared to ALC and OTH, the pattern of findings for CAN suggest similarities but also some notable differences in characteristics and problem resolution pathways particularly regarding earlier problem offset

  17. Inflammatory Biomarkers and Risk of Schizophrenia: A 2-Sample Mendelian Randomization Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartwig, Fernando Pires; Borges, Maria Carolina; Horta, Bernardo Lessa; Bowden, Jack; Davey Smith, George

    2017-12-01

    Positive associations between inflammatory biomarkers and risk of psychiatric disorders, including schizophrenia, have been reported in observational studies. However, conventional observational studies are prone to bias, such as reverse causation and residual confounding, thus limiting our understanding of the effect (if any) of inflammatory biomarkers on schizophrenia risk. To evaluate whether inflammatory biomarkers have an effect on the risk of developing schizophrenia. Two-sample mendelian randomization study using genetic variants associated with inflammatory biomarkers as instrumental variables to improve inference. Summary association results from large consortia of candidate gene or genome-wide association studies, including several epidemiologic studies with different designs, were used. Gene-inflammatory biomarker associations were estimated in pooled samples ranging from 1645 to more than 80 000 individuals, while gene-schizophrenia associations were estimated in more than 30 000 cases and more than 45 000 ancestry-matched controls. In most studies included in the consortia, participants were of European ancestry, and the prevalence of men was approximately 50%. All studies were conducted in adults, with a wide age range (18 to 80 years). Genetically elevated circulating levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1Ra), and soluble interleukin-6 receptor (sIL-6R). Risk of developing schizophrenia. Individuals with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorders were included as cases. Given that many studies contributed to the analyses, different diagnostic procedures were used. The pooled odds ratio estimate using 18 CRP genetic instruments was 0.90 (random effects 95% CI, 0.84-0.97; P = .005) per 2-fold increment in CRP levels; consistent results were obtained using different mendelian randomization methods and a more conservative set of instruments. The odds ratio for sIL-6R was 1.06 (95% CI, 1.01-1.12; P = .02

  18. Validation of the 2008 Landsat Burned Area Ecv Product for North America Using Stratified Random Sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunner, N. M.; Mladinich, C. S.; Caldwell, M. K.; Beal, Y. J. G.

    2014-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey is generating a suite of Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) products, as defined by the Global Climate Observing System, from the Landsat data archive. Validation protocols for these products are being established, incorporating the Committee on Earth Observing Satellites Land Product Validation Subgroup's best practice guidelines and validation hierarchy stages. The sampling design and accuracy measures follow the methodology developed by the European Space Agency's Climate Change Initiative Fire Disturbance (fire_cci) project (Padilla and others, 2014). A rigorous validation was performed on the 2008 Burned Area ECV (BAECV) prototype product, using a stratified random sample of 48 Thiessen scene areas overlaying Landsat path/rows distributed across several terrestrial biomes throughout North America. The validation reference data consisted of fourteen sample sites acquired from the fire_cci project and the remaining new samples sites generated from a densification of the stratified sampling for North America. The reference burned area polygons were generated using the ABAMS (Automatic Burned Area Mapping) software (Bastarrika and others, 2011; Izagirre, 2014). Accuracy results will be presented indicating strengths and weaknesses of the BAECV algorithm.Bastarrika, A., Chuvieco, E., and Martín, M.P., 2011, Mapping burned areas from Landsat TM/ETM+ data with a two-phase algorithm: Balancing omission and commission errors: Remote Sensing of Environment, v. 115, no. 4, p. 1003-1012.Izagirre, A.B., 2014, Automatic Burned Area Mapping Software (ABAMS), Preliminary Documentation, Version 10 v4,: Vitoria-Gasteiz, Spain, University of Basque Country, p. 27.Padilla, M., Chuvieco, E., Hantson, S., Theis, R., and Sandow, C., 2014, D2.1 - Product Validation Plan: UAH - University of Alcalá de Henares (Spain), 37 p.

  19. Conic sampling: an efficient method for solving linear and quadratic programming by randomly linking constraints within the interior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serang, Oliver

    2012-01-01

    Linear programming (LP) problems are commonly used in analysis and resource allocation, frequently surfacing as approximations to more difficult problems. Existing approaches to LP have been dominated by a small group of methods, and randomized algorithms have not enjoyed popularity in practice. This paper introduces a novel randomized method of solving LP problems by moving along the facets and within the interior of the polytope along rays randomly sampled from the polyhedral cones defined by the bounding constraints. This conic sampling method is then applied to randomly sampled LPs, and its runtime performance is shown to compare favorably to the simplex and primal affine-scaling algorithms, especially on polytopes with certain characteristics. The conic sampling method is then adapted and applied to solve a certain quadratic program, which compute a projection onto a polytope; the proposed method is shown to outperform the proprietary software Mathematica on large, sparse QP problems constructed from mass spectometry-based proteomics.

  20. Improvement of sampling strategies for randomly distributed hotspots in soil applying a computerized simulation considering the concept of uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hildebrandt, Thomas; Pick, Denis; Einax, Jürgen W

    2012-02-01

    The pollution of soil and environment as a result of human activity is a major problem. Nowadays, the determination of local contaminations is of interest for environmental remediation. These hotspots can have various toxic effects on plants, animals, humans, and the whole ecological system. However, economical and juridical consequences are also possible, e.g., high costs for remediation measures. In this study three sampling strategies (simple random sampling, stratified sampling, and systematic sampling) were applied on randomly distributed hotspot contaminations to prove their efficiency in term of finding hotspots. The results were used for the validation of a computerized simulation. This application can simulate the contamination on a field, the sampling pattern, and a virtual sampling. A constant hit rate showed that none of the sampling patterns could reach better results than others. Furthermore, the uncertainty associated with the results is described by confidence intervals. It is to be considered that the uncertainty during sampling is enormous and will decrease slightly, even the number of samples applied was increased to an unreasonable amount. It is hardly possible to identify the exact number of randomly distributed hotspot contaminations by statistical sampling. But a range of possible results could be calculated. Depending on various parameters such as shape and size of the area, number of hotspots, and sample quantity, optimal sampling strategies could be derived. Furthermore, an estimation of bias arising from sampling methodology is possible. The developed computerized simulation is an innovative tool for optimizing sampling strategies in terrestrial compartments for hotspot distributions.

  1. Sample size and power for a stratified doubly randomized preference design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameron, Briana; Esserman, Denise A

    2016-11-21

    The two-stage (or doubly) randomized preference trial design is an important tool for researchers seeking to disentangle the role of patient treatment preference on treatment response through estimation of selection and preference effects. Up until now, these designs have been limited by their assumption of equal preference rates and effect sizes across the entire study population. We propose a stratified two-stage randomized trial design that addresses this limitation. We begin by deriving stratified test statistics for the treatment, preference, and selection effects. Next, we develop a sample size formula for the number of patients required to detect each effect. The properties of the model and the efficiency of the design are established using a series of simulation studies. We demonstrate the applicability of the design using a study of Hepatitis C treatment modality, specialty clinic versus mobile medical clinic. In this example, a stratified preference design (stratified by alcohol/drug use) may more closely capture the true distribution of patient preferences and allow for a more efficient design than a design which ignores these differences (unstratified version). © The Author(s) 2016.

  2. Control capacity and a random sampling method in exploring controllability of complex networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Tao; Barabási, Albert-László

    2013-01-01

    Controlling complex systems is a fundamental challenge of network science. Recent advances indicate that control over the system can be achieved through a minimum driver node set (MDS). The existence of multiple MDS's suggests that nodes do not participate in control equally, prompting us to quantify their participations. Here we introduce control capacity quantifying the likelihood that a node is a driver node. To efficiently measure this quantity, we develop a random sampling algorithm. This algorithm not only provides a statistical estimate of the control capacity, but also bridges the gap between multiple microscopic control configurations and macroscopic properties of the network under control. We demonstrate that the possibility of being a driver node decreases with a node's in-degree and is independent of its out-degree. Given the inherent multiplicity of MDS's, our findings offer tools to explore control in various complex systems.

  3. Classification of epileptic EEG signals based on simple random sampling and sequential feature selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghayab, Hadi Ratham Al; Li, Yan; Abdulla, Shahab; Diykh, Mohammed; Wan, Xiangkui

    2016-06-01

    Electroencephalogram (EEG) signals are used broadly in the medical fields. The main applications of EEG signals are the diagnosis and treatment of diseases such as epilepsy, Alzheimer, sleep problems and so on. This paper presents a new method which extracts and selects features from multi-channel EEG signals. This research focuses on three main points. Firstly, simple random sampling (SRS) technique is used to extract features from the time domain of EEG signals. Secondly, the sequential feature selection (SFS) algorithm is applied to select the key features and to reduce the dimensionality of the data. Finally, the selected features are forwarded to a least square support vector machine (LS_SVM) classifier to classify the EEG signals. The LS_SVM classifier classified the features which are extracted and selected from the SRS and the SFS. The experimental results show that the method achieves 99.90, 99.80 and 100 % for classification accuracy, sensitivity and specificity, respectively.

  4. Randomized Controlled Trial of Attention Bias Modification in a Racially Diverse, Socially Anxious, Alcohol Dependent Sample

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clerkin, Elise M.; Magee, Joshua C.; Wells, Tony T.; Beard, Courtney; Barnett, Nancy P.

    2016-01-01

    Objective Attention biases may be an important treatment target for both alcohol dependence and social anxiety. This is the first ABM trial to investigate two (vs. one) targets of attention bias within a sample with co-occurring symptoms of social anxiety and alcohol dependence. Additionally, we used trial-level bias scores (TL-BS) to capture the phenomena of attention bias in a more ecologically valid, dynamic way compared to traditional attention bias scores. Method Adult participants (N=86; 41% Female; 52% African American; 40% White) with elevated social anxiety symptoms and alcohol dependence were randomly assigned to an 8-session training condition in this 2 (Social Anxiety ABM vs. Social Anxiety Control) by 2 (Alcohol ABM vs. Alcohol Control) design. Symptoms of social anxiety, alcohol dependence, and attention bias were assessed across time. Results Multilevel models estimated the trajectories for each measure within individuals, and tested whether these trajectories differed according to the randomized training conditions. Across time, there were significant or trending decreases in all attention TL-BS parameters (but not traditional attention bias scores) and most symptom measures. However, there were not significant differences in the trajectories of change between any ABM and control conditions for any symptom measures. Conclusions These findings add to previous evidence questioning the robustness of ABM and point to the need to extend the effects of ABM to samples that are racially diverse and/or have co-occurring psychopathology. The results also illustrate the potential importance of calculating trial-level attention bias scores rather than only including traditional bias scores. PMID:27591918

  5. Random sampling or geostatistical modelling? Choosing between design-based and model-based sampling strategies for soil (with discussion)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brus, D.J.; Gruijter, de J.J.

    1997-01-01

    Classical sampling theory has been repeatedly identified with classical statistics which assumes that data are identically and independently distributed. This explains the switch of many soil scientists from design-based sampling strategies, based on classical sampling theory, to the model-based

  6. HLA-Cw Allele Frequency in Definite Meniere’s Disease Compared to Probable Meniere’s Disease and Healthy Controls in an Iranian Sample

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sasan Dabiri

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Introduction Several lines of evidence support the contribution of autoimmune mechanisms in the pathogenesis of Meniere’s disease. The aim of this study was determining the association between HLA-Cw Alleles in patients with definite Meniere’s disease and patients with probable Meniere’s disease and a control group.  Materials and Methods: HLA-Cw genotyping was performed in 23 patients with definite Meniere’s disease, 24 with probable Meniere’s disease, and 91 healthy normal subjects, using sequence specific primers polymerase chain reaction technique. The statistical analysis was performed using stata 8 software.  Results: There was a significant association between HLA-Cw*04 and HLA-Cw*16 in both definite and probable Meniere’s disease compared to normal healthy controls. We observed a significant difference in HLA-Cw*12 frequencies between patients with definite Meniere’s disease compared to patients with probable Meniere’s disease (P=0.04. The frequency of HLA-Cw*18 is significantly higher in healthy controls (P=0.002.  Conclusion: Our findings support the rule of HLA-Cw Alleles in both definite and probable Meniere’s disease. In addition, differences in HLA-Cw*12 frequency in definite and probable Meniere’s disease in our study’s population might indicate distinct immune and inflammatory mechanisms involved in each condition.

  7. Notes on interval estimation of the gamma correlation under stratified random sampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lui, Kung-Jong; Chang, Kuang-Chao

    2012-07-01

    We have developed four asymptotic interval estimators in closed forms for the gamma correlation under stratified random sampling, including the confidence interval based on the most commonly used weighted-least-squares (WLS) approach (CIWLS), the confidence interval calculated from the Mantel-Haenszel (MH) type estimator with the Fisher-type transformation (CIMHT), the confidence interval using the fundamental idea of Fieller's Theorem (CIFT) and the confidence interval derived from a monotonic function of the WLS estimator of Agresti's α with the logarithmic transformation (MWLSLR). To evaluate the finite-sample performance of these four interval estimators and note the possible loss of accuracy in application of both Wald's confidence interval and MWLSLR using pooled data without accounting for stratification, we employ Monte Carlo simulation. We use the data taken from a general social survey studying the association between the income level and job satisfaction with strata formed by genders in black Americans published elsewhere to illustrate the practical use of these interval estimators. © 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  8. Predictive value of testing random urine sample to detect microalbuminuria in diabetic subjects during outpatient visit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouhanick, B; Berrut, G; Chameau, A M; Hallar, M; Bled, F; Chevet, B; Vergely, J; Rohmer, V; Fressinaud, P; Marre, M

    1992-01-01

    The predictive value of random urine sample during outpatient visit to predict persistent microalbuminuria was studied in 76 Type 1, insulin-dependent diabetic subjects, 61 Type 2, non-insulin-dependent diabetic subjects, and 72 Type 2, insulin-treated diabetic subjects. Seventy-six patients attended outpatient clinic during morning, and 133 during afternoon. Microalbuminuria was suspected if Urinary Albumin Excretion (UAE) exceeded 20 mg/l. All patients were hospitalized within 6 months following outpatient visit, and persistent microalbuminuria was assessed then if UAE was between 30 and 300 mg/24 h on 2-3 occasions in 3 urines samples. Of these 209 subjects eighty-three were also screened with Microbumintest (Ames-Bayer), a semi-quantitative method. Among the 209 subjects, 71 were positive both for microalbuminuria during outpatient visit and a persistent microalbuminuria during hospitalization: sensitivity 91.0%, specificity 83.2%, concordance 86.1%, and positive predictive value 76.3% (chi-squared test: 191; p less than 10(-4)). Data were not different for subjects examined on morning, or on afternoon. Among the 83 subjects also screened with Microbumintest, 22 displayed both a positive reaction and a persistent microalbuminuria: sensitivity 76%, specificity 81%, concordance 80%, and positive predictive value 69% (chi-squared test: 126; p less than 10(-4)). Both types of screening appeared equally effective during outpatient visit. Hence, a persistent microalbuminuria can be predicted during an outpatient visit in a diabetic clinic.

  9. Effectiveness of hand hygiene education among a random sample of women from the community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ubheeram, J; Biranjia-Hurdoyal, S D

    2017-03-01

    The effectiveness of hand hygiene education was investigated by studying the hand hygiene awareness and bacterial hand contamination among a random sample of 170 women in the community. Questionnaire was used to assess the hand hygiene awareness score, followed by swabbing of the dominant hand. Bacterial identification was done by conventional biochemical tests. Better hand hygiene awareness score was significantly associated with age, scarce bacterial growth and absence of potential pathogen (p hand samples, bacterial growth was noted in 155 (91.2%), which included 91 (53.5%) heavy growth, 53 (31.2%) moderate growth and 11 (6.47%) scanty growth. The presence of enteric bacteria was associated with long nails (49.4% vs 29.2%; p = 0.007; OR = 2.3; 95% CI: 1.25-4.44) while finger rings were associated with higher bacterial load (p = 0.003). Coliforms was significantly higher among women who had a lower hand hygiene awareness score, washed their hands at lower frequency (59.0% vs 32.8%; p = 0.003; OR = 2.9; 95% CI: 1.41-6.13) and used common soap as compared to antiseptic soaps (69.7% vs 30.3%, p = 0.000; OR = 4.11; 95% CI: 1.67-10.12). Level of hand hygiene awareness among the participants was satisfactory but not the compliance of hand washing practice, especially among the elders.

  10. Association between stalking victimisation and psychiatric morbidity in a random community sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purcell, Rosemary; Pathé, Michele; Mullen, Paul E

    2005-11-01

    No studies have assessed psychopathology among victims of stalking who have not sought specialist help. To examine the associations between stalking victimisation and psychiatric morbidity in a representative community sample. A random community sample (n=1844) completed surveys examining the experience of harassment and current mental health. The 28-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-28) and the Impact of Event Scale were used to assess symptomatology in those reporting brief harassment (n=196) or protracted stalking (n=236) and a matched control group reporting no harassment (n=432). Rates of caseness on the GHQ-28 were higher among stalking victims (36.4%) than among controls (19.3%) and victims of brief harassment (21.9%). Psychiatric morbidity did not differ according to the recency of victimisation, with 34.1% of victims meeting caseness criteria 1 year after stalking had ended. In a significant minority of victims, stalking victimisation is associated with psychiatric morbidity that may persist long after it has ceased. Recognition of the immediate and long-term impacts of stalking is necessary to assist victims and help alleviate distress and long-term disability.

  11. Random sample community-based health surveys: does the effort to reach participants matter?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Messiah, Antoine; Castro, Grettel; Rodríguez de la Vega, Pura; Acuna, Juan M

    2014-12-15

    Conducting health surveys with community-based random samples are essential to capture an otherwise unreachable population, but these surveys can be biased if the effort to reach participants is insufficient. This study determines the desirable amount of effort to minimise such bias. A household-based health survey with random sampling and face-to-face interviews. Up to 11 visits, organised by canvassing rounds, were made to obtain an interview. Single-family homes in an underserved and understudied population in North Miami-Dade County, Florida, USA. Of a probabilistic sample of 2200 household addresses, 30 corresponded to empty lots, 74 were abandoned houses, 625 households declined to participate and 265 could not be reached and interviewed within 11 attempts. Analyses were performed on the 1206 remaining households. Each household was asked if any of their members had been told by a doctor that they had high blood pressure, heart disease including heart attack, cancer, diabetes, anxiety/ depression, obesity or asthma. Responses to these questions were analysed by the number of visit attempts needed to obtain the interview. Return per visit fell below 10% after four attempts, below 5% after six attempts and below 2% after eight attempts. As the effort increased, household size decreased, while household income and the percentage of interviewees active and employed increased; proportion of the seven health conditions decreased, four of which did so significantly: heart disease 20.4-9.2%, high blood pressure 63.5-58.1%, anxiety/depression 24.4-9.2% and obesity 21.8-12.6%. Beyond the fifth attempt, however, cumulative percentages varied by less than 1% and precision varied by less than 0.1%. In spite of the early and steep drop, sustaining at least five attempts to reach participants is necessary to reduce selection bias. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  12. Nonprobability Web surveys to measure sexual behaviors and attitudes in the general population: a comparison with a probability sample interview survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erens, Bob; Burkill, Sarah; Couper, Mick P; Conrad, Frederick; Clifton, Soazig; Tanton, Clare; Phelps, Andrew; Datta, Jessica; Mercer, Catherine H; Sonnenberg, Pam; Prah, Philip; Mitchell, Kirstin R; Wellings, Kaye; Johnson, Anne M; Copas, Andrew J

    2014-12-08

    Nonprobability Web surveys using volunteer panels can provide a relatively cheap and quick alternative to traditional health and epidemiological surveys. However, concerns have been raised about their representativeness. The aim was to compare results from different Web panels with a population-based probability sample survey (n=8969 aged 18-44 years) that used computer-assisted self-interview (CASI) for sensitive behaviors, the third British National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (Natsal-3). Natsal-3 questions were included on 4 nonprobability Web panel surveys (n=2000 to 2099), 2 using basic quotas based on age and sex, and 2 using modified quotas based on additional variables related to key estimates. Results for sociodemographic characteristics were compared with external benchmarks and for sexual behaviors and opinions with Natsal-3. Odds ratios (ORs) were used to express differences between the benchmark data and each survey for each variable of interest. A summary measure of survey performance was the average absolute OR across variables. Another summary measure was the number of key estimates for which the survey differed significantly (at the 5% level) from the benchmarks. For sociodemographic variables, the Web surveys were less representative of the general population than Natsal-3. For example, for men, the average absolute OR for Natsal-3 was 1.14, whereas for the Web surveys the average absolute ORs ranged from 1.86 to 2.30. For all Web surveys, approximately two-thirds of the key estimates of sexual behaviors were different from Natsal-3 and the average absolute ORs ranged from 1.32 to 1.98. Differences were appreciable even for questions asked by CASI in Natsal-3. No single Web survey performed consistently better than any other did. Modified quotas slightly improved results for men, but not for women. Consistent with studies from other countries on less sensitive topics, volunteer Web panels provided appreciably biased estimates. The

  13. Nonprobability Web Surveys to Measure Sexual Behaviors and Attitudes in the General Population: A Comparison With a Probability Sample Interview Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkill, Sarah; Couper, Mick P; Conrad, Frederick; Clifton, Soazig; Tanton, Clare; Phelps, Andrew; Datta, Jessica; Mercer, Catherine H; Sonnenberg, Pam; Prah, Philip; Mitchell, Kirstin R; Wellings, Kaye; Johnson, Anne M; Copas, Andrew J

    2014-01-01

    Background Nonprobability Web surveys using volunteer panels can provide a relatively cheap and quick alternative to traditional health and epidemiological surveys. However, concerns have been raised about their representativeness. Objective The aim was to compare results from different Web panels with a population-based probability sample survey (n=8969 aged 18-44 years) that used computer-assisted self-interview (CASI) for sensitive behaviors, the third British National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (Natsal-3). Methods Natsal-3 questions were included on 4 nonprobability Web panel surveys (n=2000 to 2099), 2 using basic quotas based on age and sex, and 2 using modified quotas based on additional variables related to key estimates. Results for sociodemographic characteristics were compared with external benchmarks and for sexual behaviors and opinions with Natsal-3. Odds ratios (ORs) were used to express differences between the benchmark data and each survey for each variable of interest. A summary measure of survey performance was the average absolute OR across variables. Another summary measure was the number of key estimates for which the survey differed significantly (at the 5% level) from the benchmarks. Results For sociodemographic variables, the Web surveys were less representative of the general population than Natsal-3. For example, for men, the average absolute OR for Natsal-3 was 1.14, whereas for the Web surveys the average absolute ORs ranged from 1.86 to 2.30. For all Web surveys, approximately two-thirds of the key estimates of sexual behaviors were different from Natsal-3 and the average absolute ORs ranged from 1.32 to 1.98. Differences were appreciable even for questions asked by CASI in Natsal-3. No single Web survey performed consistently better than any other did. Modified quotas slightly improved results for men, but not for women. Conclusions Consistent with studies from other countries on less sensitive topics, volunteer Web

  14. Neural Network Model for Thermal Inactivation of Salmonella Typhimurium to Elimination in Ground Chicken: Acquisition of Data by Whole Sample Enrichment, Miniature Most-Probable-Number Method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oscar, T P

    2017-01-01

    Predictive models are valuable tools for assessing food safety. Existing thermal inactivation models for Salmonella and ground chicken do not provide predictions above 71°C, which is below the recommended final cooked temperature of 73.9°C for chicken. They also do not predict when all Salmonella are eliminated without extrapolating beyond the data used to develop them. Thus, a study was undertaken to develop a model for thermal inactivation of Salmonella to elimination in ground chicken at temperatures above those of existing models. Ground chicken thigh portions (0.76 cm(3)) in microcentrifuge tubes were inoculated with 4.45 ± 0.25 log most probable number (MPN) of a single strain of Salmonella Typhimurium (chicken isolate). They were cooked at 50 to 100°C in 2 or 2.5°C increments in a heating block that simulated two-sided pan frying. A whole sample enrichment, miniature MPN (WSE-mMPN) method was used for enumeration. The lower limit of detection was one Salmonella cell per portion. MPN data were used to develop a multiple-layer feedforward neural network model. Model performance was evaluated using the acceptable prediction zone (APZ) method. The proportion of residuals in an APZ (pAPZ) from -1 log (fail-safe) to 0.5 log (fail-dangerous) was 0.911 (379 of 416) for dependent data and 0.910 (162 of 178) for independent data for interpolation. A pAPZ ≥0.7 indicated that model predictions had acceptable bias and accuracy. There were no local prediction problems because pAPZ for individual thermal inactivation curves ranged from 0.813 to 1.000. Independent data for interpolation satisfied the test data criteria of the APZ method. Thus, the model was successfully validated. Predicted times for a 1-log reduction ranged from 9.6 min at 56°C to 0.71 min at 100°C. Predicted times for elimination ranged from 8.6 min at 60°C to 1.4 min at 100°C. The model will be a valuable new tool for predicting and managing this important risk to public health.

  15. Choice probability generating functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

    2010-01-01

    This paper establishes that every random utility discrete choice model (RUM) has a representation that can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) with specific properties, and that every function with these specific properties is consistent with a RUM. The choice...... probabilities from the RUM are obtained from the gradient of the CPGF. Mixtures of RUM are characterized by logarithmic mixtures of their associated CPGF. The paper relates CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and reviews and extends methods for constructing generating functions for applications....... The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended to competing risk survival models....

  16. Measurement uncertainty and probability

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Willink, Robin

    2013-01-01

    ... and probability models 3.4 Inference and confidence 3.5 Two central limit theorems 3.6 The Monte Carlo method and process simulation 4 The randomization of systematic errors page xi xii 3 3 5 7 10 12 16 19 21 21 23 28 30 32 33 39 43 45 52 53 56 viiviii 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 Contents The Working Group of 1980 From classical repetition to practica...

  17. Introduction to probability theory with contemporary applications

    CERN Document Server

    Helms, Lester L

    2010-01-01

    This introduction to probability theory transforms a highly abstract subject into a series of coherent concepts. Its extensive discussions and clear examples, written in plain language, expose students to the rules and methods of probability. Suitable for an introductory probability course, this volume requires abstract and conceptual thinking skills and a background in calculus.Topics include classical probability, set theory, axioms, probability functions, random and independent random variables, expected values, and covariance and correlations. Additional subjects include stochastic process

  18. Sample-to-sample fluctuations of power spectrum of a random motion in a periodic Sinai model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, David S.; Iorio, Antonio; Marinari, Enzo; Oshanin, Gleb

    2016-09-01

    The Sinai model of a tracer diffusing in a quenched Brownian potential is a much-studied problem exhibiting a logarithmically slow anomalous diffusion due to the growth of energy barriers with the system size. However, if the potential is random but periodic, the regime of anomalous diffusion crosses over to one of normal diffusion once a tracer has diffused over a few periods of the system. Here we consider a system in which the potential is given by a Brownian bridge on a finite interval (0 ,L ) and then periodically repeated over the whole real line and study the power spectrum S (f ) of the diffusive process x (t ) in such a potential. We show that for most of realizations of x (t ) in a given realization of the potential, the low-frequency behavior is S (f ) ˜A /f2 , i.e., the same as for standard Brownian motion, and the amplitude A is a disorder-dependent random variable with a finite support. Focusing on the statistical properties of this random variable, we determine the moments of A of arbitrary, negative, or positive order k and demonstrate that they exhibit a multifractal dependence on k and a rather unusual dependence on the temperature and on the periodicity L , which are supported by atypical realizations of the periodic disorder. We finally show that the distribution of A has a log-normal left tail and exhibits an essential singularity close to the right edge of the support, which is related to the Lifshitz singularity. Our findings are based both on analytic results and on extensive numerical simulations of the process x (t ) .

  19. Sample size determination for assessing equivalence based on proportion ratio under a randomized trial with non-compliance and missing outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lui, Kung-Jong; Chang, Kuang-Chao

    2008-01-15

    When a generic drug is developed, it is important to assess the equivalence of therapeutic efficacy between the new and the standard drugs. Although the number of publications on testing equivalence and its relevant sample size determination is numerous, the discussion on sample size determination for a desired power of detecting equivalence under a randomized clinical trial (RCT) with non-compliance and missing outcomes is limited. In this paper, we derive under the compound exclusion restriction model the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for the ratio of probabilities of response among compliers between two treatments in a RCT with both non-compliance and missing outcomes. Using the MLE with the logarithmic transformation, we develop an asymptotic test procedure for assessing equivalence and find that this test procedure can perform well with respect to type I error based on Monte Carlo simulation. We further develop a sample size calculation formula for a desired power of detecting equivalence at a nominal alpha-level. To evaluate the accuracy of the sample size calculation formula, we apply Monte Carlo simulation again to calculate the simulated power of the proposed test procedure corresponding to the resulting sample size for a desired power of 80 per cent at 0.05 level in a variety of situations. We also include a discussion on determining the optimal ratio of sample size allocation subject to a desired power to minimize a linear cost function and provide a sensitivity analysis of the sample size formula developed here under an alterative model with missing at random. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  20. Effect of slaughterhouse and day of sample on the probability of a pig carcass being Salmonella-positive according to the Enterobacteriaceae count in the largest Brazilian pork production region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Corbellini, Luis Gustavo; Júnior, Alfredo Bianco; de Freitas Costa, Eduardo

    2016-01-01

    and Enterobacteriaceae count (EC) on pre-chill carcasses has been described, however the impact of slaughterhouse and the day of sampling on the occurrence of Salmonella has not been previously investigated. To this end, mixed logistic regressions (MLRs) with random effects and fixed slopes were performed to assess...... the change in EC and its correlation with Salmonella occurrence using two data sets. The first describes the EC and Salmonella isolation in 60 pork carcasses in one slaughterhouse sampled at 11 different slaughter steps, including the carcass as a random effect. The second describes the EC and Salmonella...... isolation on 1150 pre-chill carcasses sampled in 13 slaughterhouses over 230 sampling days, and the model combined two random intercepts, slaughterhouse and date of sampling nested with slaughterhouse (day/slaughterhouse). Statistically significant associations (p

  1. The pleasures of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Isaac, Richard

    1995-01-01

    The ideas of probability are all around us. Lotteries, casino gambling, the al­ most non-stop polling which seems to mold public policy more and more­ these are a few of the areas where principles of probability impinge in a direct way on the lives and fortunes of the general public. At a more re­ moved level there is modern science which uses probability and its offshoots like statistics and the theory of random processes to build mathematical descriptions of the real world. In fact, twentieth-century physics, in embrac­ ing quantum mechanics, has a world view that is at its core probabilistic in nature, contrary to the deterministic one of classical physics. In addition to all this muscular evidence of the importance of probability ideas it should also be said that probability can be lots of fun. It is a subject where you can start thinking about amusing, interesting, and often difficult problems with very little mathematical background. In this book, I wanted to introduce a reader with at least a fairl...

  2. Random Model Sampling: Making Craig Interpolation Work When It Should Not

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marat Akhin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the most serious problems when doing program analyses is dealing with function calls. While function inlining is the traditional approach to this problem, it nonetheless suffers from the increase in analysis complexity due to the state space explosion. Craig interpolation has been successfully used in recent years in the context of bounded model checking to do function summarization which allows one to replace the complete function body with its succinct summary and, therefore, reduce the complexity. Unfortunately this technique can be applied only to a pair of unsatisfiable formulae.In this work-in-progress paper we present an approach to function summarization based on Craig interpolation that overcomes its limitation by using random model sampling. It captures interesting input/output relations, strengthening satisfiable formulae into unsatisfiable ones and thus allowing the use of Craig interpolation. Preliminary experiments show the applicability of this approach; in our future work we plan to do a full evaluation on real-world examples.

  3. Discriminative motif discovery via simulated evolution and random under-sampling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tao Song

    Full Text Available Conserved motifs in biological sequences are closely related to their structure and functions. Recently, discriminative motif discovery methods have attracted more and more attention. However, little attention has been devoted to the data imbalance problem, which is one of the main reasons affecting the performance of the discriminative models. In this article, a simulated evolution method is applied to solve the multi-class imbalance problem at the stage of data preprocessing, and at the stage of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs training, a random under-sampling method is introduced for the imbalance between the positive and negative datasets. It is shown that, in the task of discovering targeting motifs of nine subcellular compartments, the motifs found by our method are more conserved than the methods without considering data imbalance problem and recover the most known targeting motifs from Minimotif Miner and InterPro. Meanwhile, we use the found motifs to predict protein subcellular localization and achieve higher prediction precision and recall for the minority classes.

  4. Neurofeedback Against Binge Eating: A Randomized Controlled Trial in a Female Subclinical Threshold Sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Jennifer; Martin, Alexandra

    2016-09-01

    Brain-directed treatment techniques, such as neurofeedback, have recently been proposed as adjuncts in the treatment of eating disorders to improve therapeutic outcomes. In line with this recommendation, a cue exposure EEG-neurofeedback protocol was developed. The present study aimed at the evaluation of the specific efficacy of neurofeedback to reduce subjective binge eating in a female subthreshold sample. A total of 75 subjects were randomized to EEG-neurofeedback, mental imagery with a comparable treatment set-up or a waitlist group. At post-treatment, only EEG-neurofeedback led to a reduced frequency of binge eating (p = .015, g = 0.65). The effects remained stable to a 3-month follow-up. EEG-neurofeedback further showed particular beneficial effects on perceived stress and dietary self-efficacy. Differences in outcomes did not arise from divergent treatment expectations. Because EEG-neurofeedback showed a specific efficacy, it may be a promising brain-directed approach that should be tested as a treatment adjunct in clinical groups with binge eating. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and Eating Disorders Association. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and Eating Disorders Association.

  5. A coupled well-balanced and random sampling scheme for computing bubble oscillations*

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jung Jonathan

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available We propose a finite volume scheme to study the oscillations of a spherical bubble of gas in a liquid phase. Spherical symmetry implies a geometric source term in the Euler equations. Our scheme satisfies the well-balanced property. It is based on the VFRoe approach. In order to avoid spurious pressure oscillations, the well-balanced approach is coupled with an ALE (Arbitrary Lagrangian Eulerian technique at the interface and a random sampling remap. Nous proposons un schéma de volumes finis pour étudier les oscillations d’une bulle sphérique de gaz dans l’eau. La symétrie sphérique fait apparaitre un terme source géométrique dans les équations d’Euler. Notre schéma est basé sur une approche VFRoe et préserve les états stationnaires. Pour éviter les oscillations de pression, l’approche well-balanced est couplée avec une approche ALE (Arbitrary Lagrangian Eulerian, et une étape de projection basée sur un échantillonage aléatoire.

  6. Accelerating Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation by differential evolution with self-adaptive randomized subspace sampling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vrugt, Jasper A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hyman, James M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Robinson, Bruce A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Higdon, Dave [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ter Braak, Cajo J F [NETHERLANDS; Diks, Cees G H [UNIV OF AMSTERDAM

    2008-01-01

    Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have found widespread use in many fields of study to estimate the average properties of complex systems, and for posterior inference in a Bayesian framework. Existing theory and experiments prove convergence of well constructed MCMC schemes to the appropriate limiting distribution under a variety of different conditions. In practice, however this convergence is often observed to be disturbingly slow. This is frequently caused by an inappropriate selection of the proposal distribution used to generate trial moves in the Markov Chain. Here we show that significant improvements to the efficiency of MCMC simulation can be made by using a self-adaptive Differential Evolution learning strategy within a population-based evolutionary framework. This scheme, entitled DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis or DREAM, runs multiple different chains simultaneously for global exploration, and automatically tunes the scale and orientation of the proposal distribution in randomized subspaces during the search. Ergodicity of the algorithm is proved, and various examples involving nonlinearity, high-dimensionality, and multimodality show that DREAM is generally superior to other adaptive MCMC sampling approaches. The DREAM scheme significantly enhances the applicability of MCMC simulation to complex, multi-modal search problems.

  7. Comparing cluster-level dynamic treatment regimens using sequential, multiple assignment, randomized trials: Regression estimation and sample size considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    NeCamp, Timothy; Kilbourne, Amy; Almirall, Daniel

    2017-08-01

    Cluster-level dynamic treatment regimens can be used to guide sequential treatment decision-making at the cluster level in order to improve outcomes at the individual or patient-level. In a cluster-level dynamic treatment regimen, the treatment is potentially adapted and re-adapted over time based on changes in the cluster that could be impacted by prior intervention, including aggregate measures of the individuals or patients that compose it. Cluster-randomized sequential multiple assignment randomized trials can be used to answer multiple open questions preventing scientists from developing high-quality cluster-level dynamic treatment regimens. In a cluster-randomized sequential multiple assignment randomized trial, sequential randomizations occur at the cluster level and outcomes are observed at the individual level. This manuscript makes two contributions to the design and analysis of cluster-randomized sequential multiple assignment randomized trials. First, a weighted least squares regression approach is proposed for comparing the mean of a patient-level outcome between the cluster-level dynamic treatment regimens embedded in a sequential multiple assignment randomized trial. The regression approach facilitates the use of baseline covariates which is often critical in the analysis of cluster-level trials. Second, sample size calculators are derived for two common cluster-randomized sequential multiple assignment randomized trial designs for use when the primary aim is a between-dynamic treatment regimen comparison of the mean of a continuous patient-level outcome. The methods are motivated by the Adaptive Implementation of Effective Programs Trial which is, to our knowledge, the first-ever cluster-randomized sequential multiple assignment randomized trial in psychiatry.

  8. Probability, statistics, and reliability for engineers and scientists

    CERN Document Server

    Ayyub, Bilal M

    2012-01-01

    IntroductionIntroduction Knowledge, Information, and Opinions Ignorance and Uncertainty Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainties in System Abstraction Characterizing and Modeling Uncertainty Simulation for Uncertainty Analysis and Propagation Simulation Projects Data Description and TreatmentIntroduction Classification of Data Graphical Description of Data Histograms and Frequency Diagrams Descriptive Measures Applications Analysis of Simulated Data Simulation Projects Fundamentals of ProbabilityIntroduction Sets, Sample Spaces, and EventsMathematics of Probability Random Variables and Their Proba

  9. Methodology Series Module 5: Sampling Strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Setia, Maninder Singh

    2016-01-01

    Once the research question and the research design have been finalised, it is important to select the appropriate sample for the study. The method by which the researcher selects the sample is the ' Sampling Method'. There are essentially two types of sampling methods: 1) probability sampling - based on chance events (such as random numbers, flipping a coin etc.); and 2) non-probability sampling - based on researcher's choice, population that accessible & available. Some of the non-probability sampling methods are: purposive sampling, convenience sampling, or quota sampling. Random sampling method (such as simple random sample or stratified random sample) is a form of probability sampling. It is important to understand the different sampling methods used in clinical studies and mention this method clearly in the manuscript. The researcher should not misrepresent the sampling method in the manuscript (such as using the term ' random sample' when the researcher has used convenience sample). The sampling method will depend on the research question. For instance, the researcher may want to understand an issue in greater detail for one particular population rather than worry about the ' generalizability' of these results. In such a scenario, the researcher may want to use ' purposive sampling' for the study.

  10. Methodology series module 5: Sampling strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maninder Singh Setia

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Once the research question and the research design have been finalised, it is important to select the appropriate sample for the study. The method by which the researcher selects the sample is the 'Sampling Method'. There are essentially two types of sampling methods: 1 probability sampling – based on chance events (such as random numbers, flipping a coin etc.; and 2 non-probability sampling – based on researcher's choice, population that accessible & available. Some of the non-probability sampling methods are: purposive sampling, convenience sampling, or quota sampling. Random sampling method (such as simple random sample or stratified random sample is a form of probability sampling. It is important to understand the different sampling methods used in clinical studies and mention this method clearly in the manuscript. The researcher should not misrepresent the sampling method in the manuscript (such as using the term 'random sample' when the researcher has used convenience sample. The sampling method will depend on the research question. For instance, the researcher may want to understand an issue in greater detail for one particular population rather than worry about the 'generalizability' of these results. In such a scenario, the researcher may want to use 'purposive sampling' for the study.

  11. Methodology series module 5: Sampling strategies

    OpenAIRE

    Maninder Singh Setia

    2016-01-01

    Once the research question and the research design have been finalised, it is important to select the appropriate sample for the study. The method by which the researcher selects the sample is the ? Sampling Method?. There are essentially two types of sampling methods: 1) probability sampling ? based on chance events (such as random numbers, flipping a coin etc.); and 2) non-probability sampling ? based on researcher's choice, population that accessible & available. Some of the non-probabilit...

  12. Estimating tail probabilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carr, D.B.; Tolley, H.D.

    1982-12-01

    This paper investigates procedures for univariate nonparametric estimation of tail probabilities. Extrapolated values for tail probabilities beyond the data are also obtained based on the shape of the density in the tail. Several estimators which use exponential weighting are described. These are compared in a Monte Carlo study to nonweighted estimators, to the empirical cdf, to an integrated kernel, to a Fourier series estimate, to a penalized likelihood estimate and a maximum likelihood estimate. Selected weighted estimators are shown to compare favorably to many of these standard estimators for the sampling distributions investigated.

  13. Experiments with central-limit properties of spatial samples from locally covariant random fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barringer, T.H.; Smith, T.E.

    1992-01-01

    When spatial samples are statistically dependent, the classical estimator of sample-mean standard deviation is well known to be inconsistent. For locally dependent samples, however, consistent estimators of sample-mean standard deviation can be constructed. The present paper investigates the sampling properties of one such estimator, designated as the tau estimator of sample-mean standard deviation. In particular, the asymptotic normality properties of standardized sample means based on tau estimators are studied in terms of computer experiments with simulated sample-mean distributions. The effects of both sample size and dependency levels among samples are examined for various value of tau (denoting the size of the spatial kernel for the estimator). The results suggest that even for small degrees of spatial dependency, the tau estimator exhibits significantly stronger normality properties than does the classical estimator of standardized sample means. ?? 1992.

  14. LONG-TERM VARIABILITY OF BRONCHIAL RESPONSIVENESS TO HISTAMINE IN A RANDOM-POPULATION SAMPLE OF ADULTS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    RIJCKEN, B; SCHOUTEN, JP; WEISS, ST; ROSNER, B; DEVRIES, K; VANDERLENDE, R

    1993-01-01

    Long-term variability of bronchial responsiveness has been studied in a random population sample of adults. During a follow-up period of 18 yr, 2,216 subjects contributed 5,012 observations to the analyses. Each subject could have as many as seven observations. Bronchial responsiveness was assessed

  15. Visualization techniques for spatial probability density function data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Udeepta D Bordoloi

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Novel visualization methods are presented for spatial probability density function data. These are spatial datasets, where each pixel is a random variable, and has multiple samples which are the results of experiments on that random variable. We use clustering as a means to reduce the information contained in these datasets; and present two different ways of interpreting and clustering the data. The clustering methods are used on two datasets, and the results are discussed with the help of visualization techniques designed for the spatial probability data.

  16. Albumin to creatinine ratio in a random urine sample: Correlation with severity of preeclampsia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fady S. Moiety

    2014-06-01

    Conclusions: Random urine ACR may be a reliable method for prediction and assessment of severity of preeclampsia. Using the estimated cut-off may add to the predictive value of such a simple quick test.

  17. Probability distribution of intersymbol distances in random symbolic sequences: Applications to improving detection of keywords in texts and of amino acid clustering in proteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carpena, Pedro; Bernaola-Galván, Pedro A; Carretero-Campos, Concepción; Coronado, Ana V

    2016-11-01

    Symbolic sequences have been extensively investigated in the past few years within the framework of statistical physics. Paradigmatic examples of such sequences are written texts, and deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) and protein sequences. In these examples, the spatial distribution of a given symbol (a word, a DNA motif, an amino acid) is a key property usually related to the symbol importance in the sequence: The more uneven and far from random the symbol distribution, the higher the relevance of the symbol to the sequence. Thus, many techniques of analysis measure in some way the deviation of the symbol spatial distribution with respect to the random expectation. The problem is then to know the spatial distribution corresponding to randomness, which is typically considered to be either the geometric or the exponential distribution. However, these distributions are only valid for very large symbolic sequences and for many occurrences of the analyzed symbol. Here, we obtain analytically the exact, randomly expected spatial distribution valid for any sequence length and any symbol frequency, and we study its main properties. The knowledge of the distribution allows us to define a measure able to properly quantify the deviation from randomness of the symbol distribution, especially for short sequences and low symbol frequency. We apply the measure to the problem of keyword detection in written texts and to study amino acid clustering in protein sequences. In texts, we show how the results improve with respect to previous methods when short texts are analyzed. In proteins, which are typically short, we show how the measure quantifies unambiguously the amino acid clustering and characterize its spatial distribution.

  18. Randomness, Sample Size, Imagination and Metacognition: Making Judgments about Differences in Data Sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stack, Sue; Watson, Jane

    2013-01-01

    There is considerable research on the difficulties students have in conceptualising individual concepts of probability and statistics (see for example, Bryant & Nunes, 2012; Jones, 2005). The unit of work developed for the action research project described in this article is specifically designed to address some of these in order to help…

  19. Applied probability and stochastic processes

    CERN Document Server

    Sumita, Ushio

    1999-01-01

    Applied Probability and Stochastic Processes is an edited work written in honor of Julien Keilson. This volume has attracted a host of scholars in applied probability, who have made major contributions to the field, and have written survey and state-of-the-art papers on a variety of applied probability topics, including, but not limited to: perturbation method, time reversible Markov chains, Poisson processes, Brownian techniques, Bayesian probability, optimal quality control, Markov decision processes, random matrices, queueing theory and a variety of applications of stochastic processes. The book has a mixture of theoretical, algorithmic, and application chapters providing examples of the cutting-edge work that Professor Keilson has done or influenced over the course of his highly-productive and energetic career in applied probability and stochastic processes. The book will be of interest to academic researchers, students, and industrial practitioners who seek to use the mathematics of applied probability i...

  20. Sampling

    CERN Document Server

    Thompson, Steven K

    2012-01-01

    Praise for the Second Edition "This book has never had a competitor. It is the only book that takes a broad approach to sampling . . . any good personal statistics library should include a copy of this book." —Technometrics "Well-written . . . an excellent book on an important subject. Highly recommended." —Choice "An ideal reference for scientific researchers and other professionals who use sampling." —Zentralblatt Math Features new developments in the field combined with all aspects of obtaining, interpreting, and using sample data Sampling provides an up-to-date treat

  1. Beyond Random Walk and Metropolis-Hastings Samplers: Why You Should Not Backtrack for Unbiased Graph Sampling

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, Chul-Ho; Eun, Do Young

    2012-01-01

    Graph sampling via crawling has been actively considered as a generic and important tool for collecting uniform node samples so as to consistently estimate and uncover various characteristics of complex networks. The so-called simple random walk with re-weighting (SRW-rw) and Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm have been popular in the literature for such unbiased graph sampling. However, an unavoidable downside of their core random walks -- slow diffusion over the space, can cause poor estimation accuracy. In this paper, we propose non-backtracking random walk with re-weighting (NBRW-rw) and MH algorithm with delayed acceptance (MHDA) which are theoretically guaranteed to achieve, at almost no additional cost, not only unbiased graph sampling but also higher efficiency (smaller asymptotic variance of the resulting unbiased estimators) than the SRW-rw and the MH algorithm, respectively. In particular, a remarkable feature of the MHDA is its applicability for any non-uniform node sampling like the MH algorithm,...

  2. Identifying the origin of groundwater samples in a multi-layer aquifer system with Random Forest classification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baudron, Paul; Alonso-Sarría, Francisco; García-Aróstegui, José Luís; Cánovas-García, Fulgencio; Martínez-Vicente, David; Moreno-Brotóns, Jesús

    2013-08-01

    Accurate identification of the origin of groundwater samples is not always possible in complex multilayered aquifers. This poses a major difficulty for a reliable interpretation of geochemical results. The problem is especially severe when the information on the tubewells design is hard to obtain. This paper shows a supervised classification method based on the Random Forest (RF) machine learning technique to identify the layer from where groundwater samples were extracted. The classification rules were based on the major ion composition of the samples. We applied this method to the Campo de Cartagena multi-layer aquifer system, in southeastern Spain. A large amount of hydrogeochemical data was available, but only a limited fraction of the sampled tubewells included a reliable determination of the borehole design and, consequently, of the aquifer layer being exploited. Added difficulty was the very similar compositions of water samples extracted from different aquifer layers. Moreover, not all groundwater samples included the same geochemical variables. Despite of the difficulty of such a background, the Random Forest classification reached accuracies over 90%. These results were much better than the Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) and Decision Trees (CART) supervised classification methods. From a total of 1549 samples, 805 proceeded from one unique identified aquifer, 409 proceeded from a possible blend of waters from several aquifers and 335 were of unknown origin. Only 468 of the 805 unique-aquifer samples included all the chemical variables needed to calibrate and validate the models. Finally, 107 of the groundwater samples of unknown origin could be classified. Most unclassified samples did not feature a complete dataset. The uncertainty on the identification of training samples was taken in account to enhance the model. Most of the samples that could not be identified had an incomplete dataset.

  3. Ergodicity of Random Walks on Random DFA

    OpenAIRE

    Balle, Borja

    2013-01-01

    Given a DFA we consider the random walk that starts at the initial state and at each time step moves to a new state by taking a random transition from the current state. This paper shows that for typical DFA this random walk induces an ergodic Markov chain. The notion of typical DFA is formalized by showing that ergodicity holds with high probability when a DFA is sampled uniformly at random from the set of all automata with a fixed number of states. We also show the same result applies to DF...

  4. Elements of probability and statistics an introduction to probability with De Finetti’s approach and to Bayesian statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Biagini, Francesca

    2016-01-01

    This book provides an introduction to elementary probability and to Bayesian statistics using de Finetti's subjectivist approach. One of the features of this approach is that it does not require the introduction of sample space – a non-intrinsic concept that makes the treatment of elementary probability unnecessarily complicate – but introduces as fundamental the concept of random numbers directly related to their interpretation in applications. Events become a particular case of random numbers and probability a particular case of expectation when it is applied to events. The subjective evaluation of expectation and of conditional expectation is based on an economic choice of an acceptable bet or penalty. The properties of expectation and conditional expectation are derived by applying a coherence criterion that the evaluation has to follow. The book is suitable for all introductory courses in probability and statistics for students in Mathematics, Informatics, Engineering, and Physics.

  5. Probability Aggregates in Probability Answer Set Programming

    OpenAIRE

    Saad, Emad

    2013-01-01

    Probability answer set programming is a declarative programming that has been shown effective for representing and reasoning about a variety of probability reasoning tasks. However, the lack of probability aggregates, e.g. {\\em expected values}, in the language of disjunctive hybrid probability logic programs (DHPP) disallows the natural and concise representation of many interesting problems. In this paper, we extend DHPP to allow arbitrary probability aggregates. We introduce two types of p...

  6. A random matrix/transition state theory for the probability distribution of state-specific unimolecular decay rates: Generalization to include total angular momentum conservation and other dynamical symmetries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hernandez, R.; Miller, W.H.; Moore, C.B. (Department of Chemistry, University of California, and Chemical Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, Berkeley, California 94720 (United States)); Polik, W.F. (Department of Chemistry, Hope College, Holland, Michigan 49423 (United States))

    1993-07-15

    A previously developed random matrix/transition state theory (RM/TST) model for the probability distribution of state-specific unimolecular decay rates has been generalized to incorporate total angular momentum conservation and other dynamical symmetries. The model is made into a predictive theory by using a semiclassical method to determine the transmission probabilities of a nonseparable rovibrational Hamiltonian at the transition state. The overall theory gives a good description of the state-specific rates for the D[sub 2]CO[r arrow]D[sub 2]+CO unimolecular decay; in particular, it describes the dependence of the distribution of rates on total angular momentum [ital J]. Comparison of the experimental values with results of the RM/TST theory suggests that there is mixing among the rovibrational states.

  7. Support for targeted sampling of red fox (Vulpes vulpes) feces in Sweden: a method to improve the probability of finding Echinococcus multilocularis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Andrea L; Olsson, Gert E; Sollenberg, Sofia; Skarin, Moa; Wahlström, Helene; Höglund, Johan

    2016-11-29

    Localized concentrations of Echinococcus multilocularis eggs from feces of infected red fox (Vulpes vulpes) can create areas of higher transmission risk for rodent hosts and possibly also for humans; therefore, identification of these areas is important. However, in a low prevalence environment, such as Sweden, these areas could be easily overlooked. As part of a project investigating the role of different rodents in the epidemiology of E. multilocularis in Sweden, fox feces were collected seasonally from rodent trapping sites in two regions with known parasite status and in two regions with unknown parasite status, 2013-2015. The aim was to evaluate background contamination in rodent trapping sites from parasite eggs in these regions. To maximize the likelihood of finding fox feces positive for the parasite, fecal collection was focused in habitats with the assumed presence of suitable rodent intermediate hosts (i.e. targeted sampling). Parasite eggs were isolated from feces through sieving-flotation, and parasite species were then confirmed using PCR and sequencing. Most samples were collected in the late winter/early spring and in open fields where both Arvicola amphibius and Microtus agrestis were captured. Fox feces positive for E. multilocularis (41/714) were found within 1-3 field collection sites within each of the four regions. The overall proportion of positive samples was low (≤5.4%) in three regions, but was significantly higher in one region (22.5%, P < 0.001). There was not a significant difference between seasons or years. Compared to previous national screenings, our sampling strategy identified multiple E. multilocularis positive feces in all four regions, including the two regions with previously unknown parasite status. These results further suggest that the distribution of E. multilocularis is highly aggregated in the environment and provide support for further development of a targeted sampling strategy. Our results show that it was

  8. Randomization tests

    CERN Document Server

    Edgington, Eugene

    2007-01-01

    Statistical Tests That Do Not Require Random Sampling Randomization Tests Numerical Examples Randomization Tests and Nonrandom Samples The Prevalence of Nonrandom Samples in Experiments The Irrelevance of Random Samples for the Typical Experiment Generalizing from Nonrandom Samples Intelligibility Respect for the Validity of Randomization Tests Versatility Practicality Precursors of Randomization Tests Other Applications of Permutation Tests Questions and Exercises Notes References Randomized Experiments Unique Benefits of Experiments Experimentation without Mani

  9. Probability and statistics: selected problems

    OpenAIRE

    Machado, J.A. Tenreiro; Pinto, Carla M. A.

    2014-01-01

    Probability and Statistics—Selected Problems is a unique book for senior undergraduate and graduate students to fast review basic materials in Probability and Statistics. Descriptive statistics are presented first, and probability is reviewed secondly. Discrete and continuous distributions are presented. Sample and estimation with hypothesis testing are presented in the last two chapters. The solutions for proposed excises are listed for readers to references.

  10. Finite-sample corrected generalized estimating equation of population average treatment effects in stepped wedge cluster randomized trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, JoAnna M; deCamp, Allan; Juraska, Michal; Fay, Michael P; Gilbert, Peter B

    2017-04-01

    Stepped wedge designs are increasingly commonplace and advantageous for cluster randomized trials when it is both unethical to assign placebo, and it is logistically difficult to allocate an intervention simultaneously to many clusters. We study marginal mean models fit with generalized estimating equations for assessing treatment effectiveness in stepped wedge cluster randomized trials. This approach has advantages over the more commonly used mixed models that (1) the population-average parameters have an important interpretation for public health applications and (2) they avoid untestable assumptions on latent variable distributions and avoid parametric assumptions about error distributions, therefore, providing more robust evidence on treatment effects. However, cluster randomized trials typically have a small number of clusters, rendering the standard generalized estimating equation sandwich variance estimator biased and highly variable and hence yielding incorrect inferences. We study the usual asymptotic generalized estimating equation inferences (i.e., using sandwich variance estimators and asymptotic normality) and four small-sample corrections to generalized estimating equation for stepped wedge cluster randomized trials and for parallel cluster randomized trials as a comparison. We show by simulation that the small-sample corrections provide improvement, with one correction appearing to provide at least nominal coverage even with only 10 clusters per group. These results demonstrate the viability of the marginal mean approach for both stepped wedge and parallel cluster randomized trials. We also study the comparative performance of the corrected methods for stepped wedge and parallel designs, and describe how the methods can accommodate interval censoring of individual failure times and incorporate semiparametric efficient estimators.

  11. Nuclear data uncertainties: I, Basic concepts of probability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, D.L.

    1988-12-01

    Some basic concepts of probability theory are presented from a nuclear-data perspective, in order to provide a foundation for thorough understanding of the role of uncertainties in nuclear data research. Topics included in this report are: events, event spaces, calculus of events, randomness, random variables, random-variable distributions, intuitive and axiomatic probability, calculus of probability, conditional probability and independence, probability distributions, binomial and multinomial probability, Poisson and interval probability, normal probability, the relationships existing between these probability laws, and Bayes' theorem. This treatment emphasizes the practical application of basic mathematical concepts to nuclear data research, and it includes numerous simple examples. 34 refs.

  12. Scaling Qualitative Probability

    OpenAIRE

    Burgin, Mark

    2017-01-01

    There are different approaches to qualitative probability, which includes subjective probability. We developed a representation of qualitative probability based on relational systems, which allows modeling uncertainty by probability structures and is more coherent than existing approaches. This setting makes it possible proving that any comparative probability is induced by some probability structure (Theorem 2.1), that classical probability is a probability structure (Theorem 2.2) and that i...

  13. Parallel mediation effects by sleep on the parental warmth-problem behavior links: evidence from national probability samples of Georgian and Swiss adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vazsonyi, Alexander T; Harris, Charlene; Terveer, Agnes M; Pagava, Karaman; Phagava, Helen; Michaud, Pierre-Andre

    2015-02-01

    Previous research has documented the importance of parenting on adolescent health and well-being; however, some of the underlying mechanisms that link the quality of parent-child relationship to health, adjustment, and well-being are not clearly understood. The current study seeks to address this gap by examining the extent to which sleep functioning mediates the effects by parental warmth on different measures of adolescent problem behaviors. Specifically, we test whether sleep functioning, operationalized by sleep quality and sleep quantity, mediates the relationship between the parental warmth and three measures of problem behaviors, namely alcohol use, illegal drug use, and deviance, in two nationally representative samples of Georgian (N = 6,992; M = 15.83, 60% females, and Swiss (N = 5,575; M = 17.17, 50% females) adolescents. Based on tests for parallel mediating effects by sleep functioning of parental warmth on problem behaviors in the MEDIATE macro in SPSS, the findings provided evidence that both sleep quality and sleep quantity independently and cumulatively mediated the effects of parental warmth on each of the three problem behaviors in both samples, with one exception. These results highlight the salience of positive parenting on sleep functioning among teens in two different cultural contexts, and, in turn, on measures of problem behaviors.

  14. Securing image information using double random phase encoding and parallel compressive sensing with updated sampling processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Guiqiang; Xiao, Di; Wang, Yong; Xiang, Tao; Zhou, Qing

    2017-11-01

    Recently, a new kind of image encryption approach using compressive sensing (CS) and double random phase encoding has received much attention due to the advantages such as compressibility and robustness. However, this approach is found to be vulnerable to chosen plaintext attack (CPA) if the CS measurement matrix is re-used. Therefore, designing an efficient measurement matrix updating mechanism that ensures resistance to CPA is of practical significance. In this paper, we provide a novel solution to update the CS measurement matrix by altering the secret sparse basis with the help of counter mode operation. Particularly, the secret sparse basis is implemented by a reality-preserving fractional cosine transform matrix. Compared with the conventional CS-based cryptosystem that totally generates all the random entries of measurement matrix, our scheme owns efficiency superiority while guaranteeing resistance to CPA. Experimental and analysis results show that the proposed scheme has a good security performance and has robustness against noise and occlusion.

  15. Probability with applications and R

    CERN Document Server

    Dobrow, Robert P

    2013-01-01

    An introduction to probability at the undergraduate level Chance and randomness are encountered on a daily basis. Authored by a highly qualified professor in the field, Probability: With Applications and R delves into the theories and applications essential to obtaining a thorough understanding of probability. With real-life examples and thoughtful exercises from fields as diverse as biology, computer science, cryptology, ecology, public health, and sports, the book is accessible for a variety of readers. The book's emphasis on simulation through the use of the popular R software language c

  16. Alcohol and marijuana use in adolescents' daily lives: a random sample of experiences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larson, R; Csikszentmihalyi, M; Freeman, M

    1984-07-01

    High school students filled out reports on their experiences at random times during their daily lives, including 48 occasions when they were using alcohol or marijuana. Alcohol use was reported primarily in the context of Friday and Saturday night social gatherings and was associated with a happy and gregarious subjective state. Marijuana use was reported across a wider range of situations and was associated with an average state that differed much less from ordinary experience.

  17. Stemflow estimation in a redwood forest using model-based stratified random sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jack Lewis

    2003-01-01

    Model-based stratified sampling is illustrated by a case study of stemflow volume in a redwood forest. The approach is actually a model-assisted sampling design in which auxiliary information (tree diameter) is utilized in the design of stratum boundaries to optimize the efficiency of a regression or ratio estimator. The auxiliary information is utilized in both the...

  18. Random or systematic sampling to detect a localised microbial contamination within a batch of food

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jongenburger, I.; Reij, M.W.; Boer, E.P.J.; Gorris, L.G.M.; Zwietering, M.H.

    2011-01-01

    Pathogenic microorganisms are known to be distributed heterogeneously in food products that are solid, semi-solid or powdered, like for instance peanut butter, cereals, or powdered milk. This complicates effective detection of the pathogens by sampling. Two-class sampling plans, which are deployed

  19. Multistage point relascope and randomized branch sampling for downed coarse woody debris estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey H. Gove; Mark J. Ducey; Harry T. Valentine

    2002-01-01

    New sampling methods have recently been introduced that allow estimation of downed coarse woody debris using an angle gauge, or relascope. The theory behind these methods is based on sampling straight pieces of downed coarse woody debris. When pieces deviate from this ideal situation, auxillary methods must be employed. We describe a two-stage procedure where the...

  20. Probability and statistics for particle physics

    CERN Document Server

    Mana, Carlos

    2017-01-01

    This book comprehensively presents the basic concepts of probability and Bayesian inference with sufficient generality to make them applicable to current problems in scientific research. The first chapter provides the fundamentals of probability theory that are essential for the analysis of random phenomena. The second chapter includes a full and pragmatic review of the Bayesian methods that constitute a natural and coherent framework with enough freedom to analyze all the information available from experimental data in a conceptually simple manner. The third chapter presents the basic Monte Carlo techniques used in scientific research, allowing a large variety of problems to be handled difficult to tackle by other procedures. The author also introduces a basic algorithm, which enables readers to simulate samples from simple distribution, and describes useful cases for researchers in particle physics.The final chapter is devoted to the basic ideas of Information Theory, which are important in the Bayesian me...

  1. Why choose Random Forest to predict rare species distribution with few samples in large undersampled areas? Three Asian crane species models provide supporting evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunrong Mi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Species distribution models (SDMs have become an essential tool in ecology, biogeography, evolution and, more recently, in conservation biology. How to generalize species distributions in large undersampled areas, especially with few samples, is a fundamental issue of SDMs. In order to explore this issue, we used the best available presence records for the Hooded Crane (Grus monacha, n = 33, White-naped Crane (Grus vipio, n = 40, and Black-necked Crane (Grus nigricollis, n = 75 in China as three case studies, employing four powerful and commonly used machine learning algorithms to map the breeding distributions of the three species: TreeNet (Stochastic Gradient Boosting, Boosted Regression Tree Model, Random Forest, CART (Classification and Regression Tree and Maxent (Maximum Entropy Models. In addition, we developed an ensemble forecast by averaging predicted probability of the above four models results. Commonly used model performance metrics (Area under ROC (AUC and true skill statistic (TSS were employed to evaluate model accuracy. The latest satellite tracking data and compiled literature data were used as two independent testing datasets to confront model predictions. We found Random Forest demonstrated the best performance for the most assessment method, provided a better model fit to the testing data, and achieved better species range maps for each crane species in undersampled areas. Random Forest has been generally available for more than 20 years and has been known to perform extremely well in ecological predictions. However, while increasingly on the rise, its potential is still widely underused in conservation, (spatial ecological applications and for inference. Our results show that it informs ecological and biogeographical theories as well as being suitable for conservation applications, specifically when the study area is undersampled. This method helps to save model-selection time and effort, and allows robust and rapid

  2. Random sampling technique for ultra-fast computations of molecular opacities for exoplanet atmospheres

    Science.gov (United States)

    Min, M.

    2017-10-01

    Context. Opacities of molecules in exoplanet atmospheres rely on increasingly detailed line-lists for these molecules. The line lists available today contain for many species up to several billions of lines. Computation of the spectral line profile created by pressure and temperature broadening, the Voigt profile, of all of these lines is becoming a computational challenge. Aims: We aim to create a method to compute the Voigt profile in a way that automatically focusses the computation time into the strongest lines, while still maintaining the continuum contribution of the high number of weaker lines. Methods: Here, we outline a statistical line sampling technique that samples the Voigt profile quickly and with high accuracy. The number of samples is adjusted to the strength of the line and the local spectral line density. This automatically provides high accuracy line shapes for strong lines or lines that are spectrally isolated. The line sampling technique automatically preserves the integrated line opacity for all lines, thereby also providing the continuum opacity created by the large number of weak lines at very low computational cost. Results: The line sampling technique is tested for accuracy when computing line spectra and correlated-k tables. Extremely fast computations ( 3.5 × 105 lines per second per core on a standard current day desktop computer) with high accuracy (≤1% almost everywhere) are obtained. A detailed recipe on how to perform the computations is given.

  3. Hybrid random walk-linear discriminant analysis method for unwrapping quantitative phase microscopy images of biological samples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Diane N. H.; Teitell, Michael A.; Reed, Jason; Zangle, Thomas A.

    2015-11-01

    Standard algorithms for phase unwrapping often fail for interferometric quantitative phase imaging (QPI) of biological samples due to the variable morphology of these samples and the requirement to image at low light intensities to avoid phototoxicity. We describe a new algorithm combining random walk-based image segmentation with linear discriminant analysis (LDA)-based feature detection, using assumptions about the morphology of biological samples to account for phase ambiguities when standard methods have failed. We present three versions of our method: first, a method for LDA image segmentation based on a manually compiled training dataset; second, a method using a random walker (RW) algorithm informed by the assumed properties of a biological phase image; and third, an algorithm which combines LDA-based edge detection with an efficient RW algorithm. We show that the combination of LDA plus the RW algorithm gives the best overall performance with little speed penalty compared to LDA alone, and that this algorithm can be further optimized using a genetic algorithm to yield superior performance for phase unwrapping of QPI data from biological samples.

  4. Use of protein: creatinine ratio in a random spot urine sample for predicting significant proteinuria in diabetes mellitus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yadav, B K; Adhikari, S; Gyawali, P; Shrestha, R; Poudel, B; Khanal, M

    2010-06-01

    Present study was undertaken during a period of 6 months (September 2008-February 2009) to see an correlation of 24 hours urine protein estimation with random spot protein-creatinine (P:C) ratio among a diabetic patients. The study comprised of 144 patients aged 30-70 years, recruited from Kantipur hospital, Kathmandu. The 24-hr urine sample was collected, followed by spot random urine sample. Both samples were analyzed for protein and creatinine excretion. An informed consent was taken from all participants. Sixteen inadequately collected urine samples as defined by (predicted creatinine--measured creatinine)/predicted creatinine > 0.2 were excluded from analysis. The Spearman's rank correlation between the spot urine P:C ratio and 24-hr total protein were performed by the Statistical Package for Social Service. At the P:C ratio cutoff of 0.15 and reference method (24-hr urine protein) cutoff of 150 mg/day, the correlation coefficient was found to be 0.892 (p urine collection but the cutoff should be carefully selected for different patients group under different laboratory procedures and settings.

  5. Estimating Probabilities in Recommendation Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Sun, Mingxuan; Lebanon, Guy; Kidwell, Paul

    2010-01-01

    Recommendation systems are emerging as an important business application with significant economic impact. Currently popular systems include Amazon's book recommendations, Netflix's movie recommendations, and Pandora's music recommendations. In this paper we address the problem of estimating probabilities associated with recommendation system data using non-parametric kernel smoothing. In our estimation we interpret missing items as randomly censored observations and obtain efficient computat...

  6. Multivariate Multi-Objective Allocation in Stratified Random Sampling: A Game Theoretic Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muhammad, Yousaf Shad; Hussain, Ijaz; Shoukry, Alaa Mohamd

    2016-01-01

    We consider the problem of multivariate multi-objective allocation where no or limited information is available within the stratum variance. Results show that a game theoretic approach (based on weighted goal programming) can be applied to sample size allocation problems. We use simulation technique to determine payoff matrix and to solve a minimax game.

  7. The effect of dead time on randomly sampled power spectral estimates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buchhave, Preben; Velte, Clara Marika; George, William K.

    2014-01-01

    consider both the effect on the measured spectrum of a finite sampling time, i.e., a finite time during which the signal is acquired, and a finite dead time, that is a time in which the signal processor is busy evaluating a data point and therefore unable to measure a subsequent data point arriving within...... the dead time delay....

  8. Phase microscopy of technical and biological samples through random phase modulation with a difuser

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Almoro, Percival; Pedrini, Giancarlo; Gundu, Phanindra Narayan

    2010-01-01

    A technique for phase microscopy using a phase diffuser and a reconstruction algorithm is proposed. A magnified specimen wavefront is projected on the diffuser plane that modulates the wavefront into a speckle field. The speckle patterns at axially displaced planes are sampled and used in an iter...

  9. Probability 1/e

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koo, Reginald; Jones, Martin L.

    2011-01-01

    Quite a number of interesting problems in probability feature an event with probability equal to 1/e. This article discusses three such problems and attempts to explain why this probability occurs with such frequency.

  10. Dual to Ratio-Cum-Product Estimator in Simple and Stratified Random Sampling

    OpenAIRE

    Yunusa Olufadi

    2013-01-01

    New estimators for estimating the finite population mean using two auxiliary variables under simple and stratified sampling design is proposed. Their properties (e.g., mean square error) are studied to the first order of approximation. More so, some estimators are shown to be a particular member of this estimator. Furthermore, comparison of the proposed estimator with the usual unbiased estimator and other estimators considered in this paper reveals interesting results. These results are fur...

  11. The psychometric properties of the AUDIT: a survey from a random sample of elderly Swedish adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Källmén, Håkan; Wennberg, Peter; Ramstedt, Mats; Hallgren, Mats

    2014-07-01

    Increasing alcohol consumption and related harms have been reported among the elderly population of Europe. Consequently, it is important to monitor patterns of alcohol use, and to use a valid and reliable tool when screening for risky consumption in this age group. The aim was to evaluate the internal consistency reliability and construct validity of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) in elderly Swedish adults, and to compare the results with the general Swedish population. Another aim was to calculate the level of alcohol consumption (AUDIT-C) to be used for comparison in future studies. The questionnaire was sent to 1459 Swedish adults aged 79-80 years with a response rate of 73.3%. Internal consistency reliability, were assessed using Cronbach alpha, and confirmatory factor analysis assessed construct validity of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) in elderly population as compared to a Swedish general population sample. The results showed that AUDIT was more reliable and valid among the Swedish general population sample than among the elderly and that Item 1 and 4 in AUDIT was less reliable and valid among the elderly. While the AUDIT showed acceptable psychometric properties in the general population sample, it's performance was of less quality among the elderly respondents. Further psychometric assessments of the AUDIT in elderly populations are required before it is implemented more widely.

  12. The quality of the reported sample size calculations in randomized controlled trials indexed in PubMed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Paul H; Tse, Andy C Y

    2017-05-01

    There are limited data on the quality of reporting of information essential for replication of the calculation as well as the accuracy of the sample size calculation. We examine the current quality of reporting of the sample size calculation in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) published in PubMed and to examine the variation in reporting across study design, study characteristics, and journal impact factor. We also reviewed the targeted sample size reported in trial registries. We reviewed and analyzed all RCTs published in December 2014 with journals indexed in PubMed. The 2014 Impact Factors for the journals were used as proxies for their quality. Of the 451 analyzed papers, 58.1% reported an a priori sample size calculation. Nearly all papers provided the level of significance (97.7%) and desired power (96.6%), and most of the papers reported the minimum clinically important effect size (73.3%). The median (inter-quartile range) of the percentage difference of the reported and calculated sample size calculation was 0.0% (IQR -4.6%;3.0%). The accuracy of the reported sample size was better for studies published in journals that endorsed the CONSORT statement and journals with an impact factor. A total of 98 papers had provided targeted sample size on trial registries and about two-third of these papers (n=62) reported sample size calculation, but only 25 (40.3%) had no discrepancy with the reported number in the trial registries. The reporting of the sample size calculation in RCTs published in PubMed-indexed journals and trial registries were poor. The CONSORT statement should be more widely endorsed. Copyright © 2016 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Active Learning Not Associated with Student Learning in a Random Sample of College Biology Courses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, T. M.; Leonard, M. J.; Colgrove, C. A.; Kalinowski, S. T.

    2011-01-01

    Previous research has suggested that adding active learning to traditional college science lectures substantially improves student learning. However, this research predominantly studied courses taught by science education researchers, who are likely to have exceptional teaching expertise. The present study investigated introductory biology courses randomly selected from a list of prominent colleges and universities to include instructors representing a broader population. We examined the relationship between active learning and student learning in the subject area of natural selection. We found no association between student learning gains and the use of active-learning instruction. Although active learning has the potential to substantially improve student learning, this research suggests that active learning, as used by typical college biology instructors, is not associated with greater learning gains. We contend that most instructors lack the rich and nuanced understanding of teaching and learning that science education researchers have developed. Therefore, active learning as designed and implemented by typical college biology instructors may superficially resemble active learning used by education researchers, but lacks the constructivist elements necessary for improving learning. PMID:22135373

  14. Application of a model based on dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry and finite element simulation for predicting the probability of osteoporotic hip fractures to a sample of people over 60 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López, Enrique; Casajús, José A; Ibarz, Elena; Gómez-Cabello, Alba; Ara, Ignacio; Vicente-Rodríguez, Germán; Mateo, Jesús; Herrera, Antonio; Gracia, Luis

    2015-05-01

    The aim of this work is the application of a mechanical predictive model to a sample of people over 60 years of age, in order to analyze the fracture probability related to age and sex. A total of 223 elderly people (63 men, aged 63-88, 72.32±6.10; 157 women, aged 61-89, 73.28±5.73) participated in the study. A dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry scanner was used to measure the bone mineral content and bone mineral density at total hip and femoral neck. The application of the predictive model also required a finite element simulation of the proximal femur, obtaining the mechanical damage and fracture probability maps corresponding to each sex and age groups analyzed. Statistical analysis shows higher values of bone mineral density, and consequently of Young's modulus, for men than for women. In general, a decrease of BMD is observed since 65 years old. The maximum mechanical damage value is always located at the femoral neck. The results indicate that mechanical damage tends to increase with age. Coherently with mechanical damage, the maximum fracture probability value is always located at the femoral neck and tends to increase with age. The simulation model to determine the probability of fracture is more complete than the simple measurement of bone mineral density, because provides additional information about mechanical properties of bone, and allows for a prospective detection of fracture risk. The model may be used for risk evaluation in specific patients, if anatomical and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry measurements are available, helping us to decide about preventive pharmacological treatment for hip fracture. © IMechE 2015.

  15. Quantum probability measures and tomographic probability densities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amosov, GG; Man'ko, [No Value

    2004-01-01

    Using a simple relation of the Dirac delta-function to generalized the theta-function, the relationship between the tomographic probability approach and the quantum probability measure approach with the description of quantum states is discussed. The quantum state tomogram expressed in terms of the

  16. Agreeing Probability Measures for Comparative Probability Structures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.P. Wakker (Peter)

    1981-01-01

    textabstractIt is proved that fine and tight comparative probability structures (where the set of events is assumed to be an algebra, not necessarily a σ-algebra) have agreeing probability measures. Although this was often claimed in the literature, all proofs the author encountered are not valid

  17. Effect of the Mediterranean diet on heart failure biomarkers: a randomized sample from the PREDIMED trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitó, Montserrat; Estruch, Ramón; Salas-Salvadó, Jordi; Martínez-Gonzalez, Miguel Angel; Arós, Fernando; Vila, Joan; Corella, Dolores; Díaz, Oscar; Sáez, Guillermo; de la Torre, Rafael; Mitjavila, María-Teresa; Muñoz, Miguel Angel; Lamuela-Raventós, Rosa-María; Ruiz-Gutierrez, Valentina; Fiol, Miquel; Gómez-Gracia, Enrique; Lapetra, José; Ros, Emilio; Serra-Majem, Lluis; Covas, María-Isabel

    2014-05-01

    Scarce data are available on the effect of the traditional Mediterranean diet (TMD) on heart failure biomarkers. We assessed the effect of TMD on biomarkers related to heart failure in a high cardiovascular disease risk population. A total of 930 subjects at high cardiovascular risk (420 men and 510 women) were recruited in the framework of a multicentre, randomized, controlled, parallel-group clinical trial directed at testing the efficacy of the TMD on the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (The PREDIMED Study). Participants were assigned to a low-fat diet (control, n = 310) or one of two TMDs [TMD + virgin olive oil (VOO) or TMD + nuts]. Depending on group assignment, participants received free provision of extra-virgin olive oil, mixed nuts, or small non-food gifts. After 1 year of intervention, both TMDs decreased plasma N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, with changes reaching significance vs. control group (P cardiovascular disease (CVD) who improved their diet toward a TMD pattern reduced their N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide compared with those assigned to a low-fat diet. The same was found for in vivo oxidized low-density lipoprotein and lipoprotein(a) plasma concentrations after the TMD + VOO diet. From our results TMD could be a useful tool to mitigate against risk factors for heart failure. From our results TMD could modify markers of heart failure towards a more protective mode. © 2014 The Authors. European Journal of Heart Failure © 2014 European Society of Cardiology.

  18. Incorporating covariance estimation uncertainty in spatial sampling design for prediction with trans-Gaussian random fields

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gunter eSpöck

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Recently, Spock and Pilz [38], demonstratedthat the spatial sampling design problem forthe Bayesian linear kriging predictor can betransformed to an equivalent experimentaldesign problem for a linear regression modelwith stochastic regression coefficients anduncorrelated errors. The stochastic regressioncoefficients derive from the polar spectralapproximation of the residual process. Thus,standard optimal convex experimental designtheory can be used to calculate optimal spatialsampling designs. The design functionals ̈considered in Spock and Pilz [38] did nottake into account the fact that kriging isactually a plug-in predictor which uses theestimated covariance function. The resultingoptimal designs were close to space-fillingconfigurations, because the design criteriondid not consider the uncertainty of thecovariance function.In this paper we also assume that thecovariance function is estimated, e.g., byrestricted maximum likelihood (REML. Wethen develop a design criterion that fully takesaccount of the covariance uncertainty. Theresulting designs are less regular and space-filling compared to those ignoring covarianceuncertainty. The new designs, however, alsorequire some closely spaced samples in orderto improve the estimate of the covariancefunction. We also relax the assumption ofGaussian observations and assume that thedata is transformed to Gaussianity by meansof the Box-Cox transformation. The resultingprediction method is known as trans-Gaussiankriging. We apply the Smith and Zhu [37]approach to this kriging method and show thatresulting optimal designs also depend on theavailable data. We illustrate our results witha data set of monthly rainfall measurementsfrom Upper Austria.

  19. Models for probability and statistical inference theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Stapleton, James H

    2007-01-01

    This concise, yet thorough, book is enhanced with simulations and graphs to build the intuition of readersModels for Probability and Statistical Inference was written over a five-year period and serves as a comprehensive treatment of the fundamentals of probability and statistical inference. With detailed theoretical coverage found throughout the book, readers acquire the fundamentals needed to advance to more specialized topics, such as sampling, linear models, design of experiments, statistical computing, survival analysis, and bootstrapping.Ideal as a textbook for a two-semester sequence on probability and statistical inference, early chapters provide coverage on probability and include discussions of: discrete models and random variables; discrete distributions including binomial, hypergeometric, geometric, and Poisson; continuous, normal, gamma, and conditional distributions; and limit theory. Since limit theory is usually the most difficult topic for readers to master, the author thoroughly discusses mo...

  20. Generalized SAMPLE SIZE Determination Formulas for Investigating Contextual Effects by a Three-Level Random Intercept Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Usami, Satoshi

    2017-03-01

    Behavioral and psychological researchers have shown strong interests in investigating contextual effects (i.e., the influences of combinations of individual- and group-level predictors on individual-level outcomes). The present research provides generalized formulas for determining the sample size needed in investigating contextual effects according to the desired level of statistical power as well as width of confidence interval. These formulas are derived within a three-level random intercept model that includes one predictor/contextual variable at each level to simultaneously cover various kinds of contextual effects that researchers can show interest. The relative influences of indices included in the formulas on the standard errors of contextual effects estimates are investigated with the aim of further simplifying sample size determination procedures. In addition, simulation studies are performed to investigate finite sample behavior of calculated statistical power, showing that estimated sample sizes based on derived formulas can be both positively and negatively biased due to complex effects of unreliability of contextual variables, multicollinearity, and violation of assumption regarding the known variances. Thus, it is advisable to compare estimated sample sizes under various specifications of indices and to evaluate its potential bias, as illustrated in the example.

  1. Comparison of Detrusor Muscle Sampling Rate in Monopolar and Bipolar Transurethral Resection of Bladder Tumor: A Randomized Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teoh, Jeremy Yuen-Chun; Chan, Eddie Shu-Yin; Yip, Siu-Ying; Tam, Ho-Man; Chiu, Peter Ka-Fung; Yee, Chi-Hang; Wong, Hon-Ming; Chan, Chi-Kwok; Hou, Simon See-Ming; Ng, Chi-Fai

    2017-05-01

    Our aim was to investigate the detrusor muscle sampling rate after monopolar versus bipolar transurethral resection of bladder tumor (TURBT). This was a single-center, prospective, randomized, phase III trial on monopolar versus bipolar TURBT. Baseline patient characteristics, disease characteristics and perioperative outcomes were compared, with the primary outcome being the detrusor muscle sampling rate in the TURBT specimen. Multivariate logistic regression analyses on detrusor muscle sampling were performed. From May 2012 to December 2015, a total of 160 patients with similar baseline characteristics were randomized to receive monopolar or bipolar TURBT. Fewer patients in the bipolar TURBT group required postoperative irrigation than patients in the monopolar TURBT group (18.7 vs. 43%; p = 0.001). In the whole cohort, no significant difference in the detrusor muscle sampling rates was observed between the bipolar and monopolar TURBT groups (77.3 vs. 63.3%; p = 0.057). In patients with urothelial carcinoma, bipolar TURBT achieved a higher detrusor muscle sampling rate than monopolar TURBT (84.6 vs. 67.7%; p = 0.025). On multivariate analyses, bipolar TURBT (odds ratio [OR] 2.23, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03-4.81; p = 0.042) and larger tumor size (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.01-1.08; p = 0.022) were significantly associated with detrusor muscle sampling in the whole cohort. In addition, bipolar TURBT (OR 2.88, 95% CI 1.10-7.53; p = 0.031), larger tumor size (OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.01-1.10; p = 0.035), and female sex (OR 3.25, 95% CI 1.10-9.59; p = 0.033) were significantly associated with detrusor muscle sampling in patients with urothelial carcinoma. There was a trend towards a superior detrusor muscle sampling rate after bipolar TURBT. Further studies are needed to determine its implications on disease recurrence and progression.

  2. Upgrading Probability via Fractions of Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frič Roman

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The influence of “Grundbegriffe” by A. N. Kolmogorov (published in 1933 on education in the area of probability and its impact on research in stochastics cannot be overestimated. We would like to point out three aspects of the classical probability theory “calling for” an upgrade: (i classical random events are black-and-white (Boolean; (ii classical random variables do not model quantum phenomena; (iii basic maps (probability measures and observables { dual maps to random variables have very different “mathematical nature”. Accordingly, we propose an upgraded probability theory based on Łukasiewicz operations (multivalued logic on events, elementary category theory, and covering the classical probability theory as a special case. The upgrade can be compared to replacing calculations with integers by calculations with rational (and real numbers. Namely, to avoid the three objections, we embed the classical (Boolean random events (represented by the f0; 1g-valued indicator functions of sets into upgraded random events (represented by measurable {0; 1}-valued functions, the minimal domain of probability containing “fractions” of classical random events, and we upgrade the notions of probability measure and random variable.

  3. Probability analysis of position errors using uncooled IR stereo camera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, Jun Ho; Lee, Sang Hwa; Lee, Boo Hwan; Park, Jong-Il

    2016-05-01

    This paper analyzes the random phenomenon of 3D positions when tracking moving objects using the infrared (IR) stereo camera, and proposes a probability model of 3D positions. The proposed probability model integrates two random error phenomena. One is the pixel quantization error which is caused by discrete sampling pixels in estimating disparity values of stereo camera. The other is the timing jitter which results from the irregular acquisition-timing in the uncooled IR cameras. This paper derives a probability distribution function by combining jitter model with pixel quantization error. To verify the proposed probability function of 3D positions, the experiments on tracking fast moving objects are performed using IR stereo camera system. The 3D depths of moving object are estimated by stereo matching, and be compared with the ground truth obtained by laser scanner system. According to the experiments, the 3D depths of moving object are estimated within the statistically reliable range which is well derived by the proposed probability distribution. It is expected that the proposed probability model of 3D positions can be applied to various IR stereo camera systems that deal with fast moving objects.

  4. Stationary algorithmic probability

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Müller, Markus

    2010-01-01

    ...,sincetheiractualvaluesdependonthechoiceoftheuniversal referencecomputer.Inthispaper,weanalyzeanaturalapproachtoeliminatethismachine- dependence. Our method is to assign algorithmic probabilities to the different...

  5. Uncertainty Of Stream Nutrient Transport Estimates Using Random Sampling Of Storm Events From High Resolution Water Quality And Discharge Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholefield, P. A.; Arnscheidt, J.; Jordan, P.; Beven, K.; Heathwaite, L.

    2007-12-01

    The uncertainties associated with stream nutrient transport estimates are frequently overlooked and the sampling strategy is rarely if ever investigated. Indeed, the impact of sampling strategy and estimation method on the bias and precision of stream phosphorus (P) transport calculations is little understood despite the use of such values in the calibration and testing of models of phosphorus transport. The objectives of this research were to investigate the variability and uncertainty in the estimates of total phosphorus transfers at an intensively monitored agricultural catchment. The Oona Water which is located in the Irish border region, is part of a long term monitoring program focusing on water quality. The Oona Water is a rural river catchment with grassland agriculture and scattered dwelling houses and has been monitored for total phosphorus (TP) at 10 min resolution for several years (Jordan et al, 2007). Concurrent sensitive measurements of discharge are also collected. The water quality and discharge data were provided at 1 hour resolution (averaged) and this meant that a robust estimate of the annual flow weighted concentration could be obtained by simple interpolation between points. A two-strata approach (Kronvang and Bruhn, 1996) was used to estimate flow weighted concentrations using randomly sampled storm events from the 400 identified within the time series and also base flow concentrations. Using a random stratified sampling approach for the selection of events, a series ranging from 10 through to the full 400 were used, each time generating a flow weighted mean using a load-discharge relationship identified through log-log regression and monte-carlo simulation. These values were then compared to the observed total phosphorus concentration for the catchment. Analysis of these results show the impact of sampling strategy, the inherent bias in any estimate of phosphorus concentrations and the uncertainty associated with such estimates. The

  6. Global Stratigraphy of Venus: Analysis of a Random Sample of Thirty-Six Test Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basilevsky, Alexander T.; Head, James W., III

    1995-01-01

    The age relations between 36 impact craters with dark paraboloids and other geologic units and structures at these localities have been studied through photogeologic analysis of Magellan SAR images of the surface of Venus. Geologic settings in all 36 sites, about 1000 x 1000 km each, could be characterized using only 10 different terrain units and six types of structures. These units and structures form a major stratigraphic and geologic sequence (from oldest to youngest): (1) tessera terrain; (2) densely fractured terrains associated with coronae and in the form of remnants among plains; (3) fractured and ridged plains and ridge belts; (4) plains with wrinkle ridges; (5) ridges associated with coronae annulae and ridges of arachnoid annulae which are contemporary with wrinkle ridges of the ridged plains; (6) smooth and lobate plains; (7) fractures of coronae annulae, and fractures not related to coronae annulae, which disrupt ridged and smooth plains; (8) rift-associated fractures; and (9) craters with associated dark paraboloids, which represent the youngest 1O% of the Venus impact crater population (Campbell et al.), and are on top of all volcanic and tectonic units except the youngest episodes of rift-associated fracturing and volcanism; surficial streaks and patches are approximately contemporary with dark-paraboloid craters. Mapping of such units and structures in 36 randomly distributed large regions (each approximately 10(exp 6) sq km) shows evidence for a distinctive regional and global stratigraphic and geologic sequence. On the basis of this sequence we have developed a model that illustrates several major themes in the history of Venus. Most of the history of Venus (that of its first 80% or so) is not preserved in the surface geomorphological record. The major deformation associated with tessera formation in the period sometime between 0.5-1.0 b.y. ago (Ivanov and Basilevsky) is the earliest event detected. In the terminal stages of tessera fon

  7. Use of pornography in a random sample of Norwegian heterosexual couples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daneback, Kristian; Traeen, Bente; Månsson, Sven-Axel

    2009-10-01

    This study examined the use of pornography in couple relationships to enhance the sex-life. The study contained a representative sample of 398 heterosexual couples aged 22-67 years. Data collection was carried out by self-administered postal questionnaires. The majority (77%) of the couples did not report any kind of pornography use to enhance the sex-life. In 15% of the couples, both had used pornography; in 3% of the couples, only the female partner had used pornography; and, in 5% of the couples, only the male partner had used pornography for this purpose. Based on the results of a discriminant function analysis, it is suggested that couples where one or both used pornography had a more permissive erotic climate compared to the couples who did not use pornography. In couples where only one partner used pornography, we found more problems related to arousal (male) and negative (female) self-perception. These findings could be of importance for clinicians who work with couples.

  8. Failure probability under parameter uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerrard, R; Tsanakas, A

    2011-05-01

    In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location-scale families (including the log-normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Factual and cognitive probability

    OpenAIRE

    Chuaqui, Rolando

    2012-01-01

    This modification separates the two aspects of probability: probability as a part of physical theories (factual), and as a basis for statistical inference (cognitive). Factual probability is represented by probability structures as in the earlier papers, but now built independently of the language. Cognitive probability is interpreted as a form of "partial truth". The paper also contains a discussion of the Principle of Insufficient Reason and of Bayesian and classical statistical methods, in...

  10. Evaluating probability forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    Lai, Tze Leung; Gross, Shulamith T.; Shen, David Bo

    2011-01-01

    Probability forecasts of events are routinely used in climate predictions, in forecasting default probabilities on bank loans or in estimating the probability of a patient's positive response to treatment. Scoring rules have long been used to assess the efficacy of the forecast probabilities after observing the occurrence, or nonoccurrence, of the predicted events. We develop herein a statistical theory for scoring rules and propose an alternative approach to the evaluation of probability for...

  11. Probability, random processes, and ergodic properties

    CERN Document Server

    Gray, Robert M

    2014-01-01

    In this new edition of this classic text, much of the material has been rearranged and revised for pedagogical reasons. Many classic inequalities and proofs are now incorporated into the text, and many citations have been added.

  12. Probably not future prediction using probability and statistical inference

    CERN Document Server

    Dworsky, Lawrence N

    2008-01-01

    An engaging, entertaining, and informative introduction to probability and prediction in our everyday lives Although Probably Not deals with probability and statistics, it is not heavily mathematical and is not filled with complex derivations, proofs, and theoretical problem sets. This book unveils the world of statistics through questions such as what is known based upon the information at hand and what can be expected to happen. While learning essential concepts including "the confidence factor" and "random walks," readers will be entertained and intrigued as they move from chapter to chapter. Moreover, the author provides a foundation of basic principles to guide decision making in almost all facets of life including playing games, developing winning business strategies, and managing personal finances. Much of the book is organized around easy-to-follow examples that address common, everyday issues such as: How travel time is affected by congestion, driving speed, and traffic lights Why different gambling ...

  13. Estimating screening-mammography receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves from stratified random samples of screening mammograms: a simulation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zur, Richard M; Pesce, Lorenzo L; Jiang, Yulei

    2015-05-01

    To evaluate stratified random sampling (SRS) of screening mammograms by (1) Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) assessment categories, and (2) the presence of breast cancer in mammograms, for estimation of screening-mammography receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves in retrospective observer studies. We compared observer study case sets constructed by (1) random sampling (RS); (2) SRS with proportional allocation (SRS-P) with BI-RADS 1 and 2 noncancer cases accounting for 90.6% of all noncancer cases; (3) SRS with disproportional allocation (SRS-D) with BI-RADS 1 and 2 noncancer cases accounting for 10%-80%; and (4) SRS-D and multiple imputation (SRS-D + MI) with missing BI-RADS 1 and 2 noncancer cases imputed to recover the 90.6% proportion. Monte Carlo simulated case sets were drawn from a large case population modeled after published Digital Mammography Imaging Screening Trial data. We compared the bias, root-mean-square error, and coverage of 95% confidence intervals of area under the ROC curve (AUC) estimates from the sampling methods (200-2000 cases, of which 25% were cancer cases) versus from the large case population. AUC estimates were unbiased from RS, SRS-P, and SRS-D + MI, but biased from SRS-D. AUC estimates from SRS-P and SRS-D + MI had 10% smaller root-mean-square error than RS. Both SRS-P and SRS-D + MI can be used to obtain unbiased and 10% more efficient estimate of screening-mammography ROC curves. Copyright © 2015 AUR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Probabilities for Solar Siblings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valtonen, Mauri; Bajkova, A. T.; Bobylev, V. V.; Mylläri, A.

    2015-02-01

    We have shown previously (Bobylev et al. Astron Lett 37:550-562, 2011) that some of the stars in the solar neighborhood today may have originated in the same star cluster as the Sun, and could thus be called Solar Siblings. In this work we investigate the sensitivity of this result to galactic models and to parameters of these models, and also extend the sample of orbits. There are a number of good candidates for the sibling category, but due to the long period of orbit evolution since the break-up of the birth cluster of the Sun, one can only attach probabilities of membership. We find that up to 10 % (but more likely around 1 %) of the members of the Sun's birth cluster could be still found within 100 pc from the Sun today.

  15. Randomized Comparison of Two Vaginal Self-Sampling Methods for Human Papillomavirus Detection: Dry Swab versus FTA Cartridge.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosa Catarino

    Full Text Available Human papillomavirus (HPV self-sampling (self-HPV is valuable in cervical cancer screening. HPV testing is usually performed on physician-collected cervical smears stored in liquid-based medium. Dry filters and swabs are an alternative. We evaluated the adequacy of self-HPV using two dry storage and transport devices, the FTA cartridge and swab.A total of 130 women performed two consecutive self-HPV samples. Randomization determined which of the two tests was performed first: self-HPV using dry swabs (s-DRY or vaginal specimen collection using a cytobrush applied to an FTA cartridge (s-FTA. After self-HPV, a physician collected a cervical sample using liquid-based medium (Dr-WET. HPV types were identified by real-time PCR. Agreement between collection methods was measured using the kappa statistic.HPV prevalence for high-risk types was 62.3% (95%CI: 53.7-70.2 detected by s-DRY, 56.2% (95%CI: 47.6-64.4 by Dr-WET, and 54.6% (95%CI: 46.1-62.9 by s-FTA. There was overall agreement of 70.8% between s-FTA and s-DRY samples (kappa = 0.34, and of 82.3% between self-HPV and Dr-WET samples (kappa = 0.56. Detection sensitivities for low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion or worse (LSIL+ were: 64.0% (95%CI: 44.5-79.8 for s-FTA, 84.6% (95%CI: 66.5-93.9 for s-DRY, and 76.9% (95%CI: 58.0-89.0 for Dr-WET. The preferred self-collection method among patients was s-DRY (40.8% vs. 15.4%. Regarding costs, FTA card was five times more expensive than the swab (~5 US dollars (USD/per card vs. ~1 USD/per swab.Self-HPV using dry swabs is sensitive for detecting LSIL+ and less expensive than s-FTA.International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number (ISRCTN: 43310942.

  16. Sample size estimation and sampling techniques for selecting a representative sample

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aamir Omair

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The purpose of this article is to provide a general understanding of the concepts of sampling as applied to health-related research. Sample Size Estimation: It is important to select a representative sample in quantitative research in order to be able to generalize the results to the target population. The sample should be of the required sample size and must be selected using an appropriate probability sampling technique. There are many hidden biases which can adversely affect the outcome of the study. Important factors to consider for estimating the sample size include the size of the study population, confidence level, expected proportion of the outcome variable (for categorical variables/standard deviation of the outcome variable (for numerical variables, and the required precision (margin of accuracy from the study. The more the precision required, the greater is the required sample size. Sampling Techniques: The probability sampling techniques applied for health related research include simple random sampling, systematic random sampling, stratified random sampling, cluster sampling, and multistage sampling. These are more recommended than the nonprobability sampling techniques, because the results of the study can be generalized to the target population.

  17. Optimal Subset Selection of Time-Series MODIS Images and Sample Data Transfer with Random Forests for Supervised Classification Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fuqun Zhou

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, various time-series Earth Observation data with multiple bands are freely available, such as Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS datasets including 8-day composites from NASA, and 10-day composites from the Canada Centre for Remote Sensing (CCRS. It is challenging to efficiently use these time-series MODIS datasets for long-term environmental monitoring due to their vast volume and information redundancy. This challenge will be greater when Sentinel 2–3 data become available. Another challenge that researchers face is the lack of in-situ data for supervised modelling, especially for time-series data analysis. In this study, we attempt to tackle the two important issues with a case study of land cover mapping using CCRS 10-day MODIS composites with the help of Random Forests’ features: variable importance, outlier identification. The variable importance feature is used to analyze and select optimal subsets of time-series MODIS imagery for efficient land cover mapping, and the outlier identification feature is utilized for transferring sample data available from one year to an adjacent year for supervised classification modelling. The results of the case study of agricultural land cover classification at a regional scale show that using only about a half of the variables we can achieve land cover classification accuracy close to that generated using the full dataset. The proposed simple but effective solution of sample transferring could make supervised modelling possible for applications lacking sample data.

  18. Optimal Subset Selection of Time-Series MODIS Images and Sample Data Transfer with Random Forests for Supervised Classification Modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Fuqun; Zhang, Aining

    2016-10-25

    Nowadays, various time-series Earth Observation data with multiple bands are freely available, such as Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) datasets including 8-day composites from NASA, and 10-day composites from the Canada Centre for Remote Sensing (CCRS). It is challenging to efficiently use these time-series MODIS datasets for long-term environmental monitoring due to their vast volume and information redundancy. This challenge will be greater when Sentinel 2-3 data become available. Another challenge that researchers face is the lack of in-situ data for supervised modelling, especially for time-series data analysis. In this study, we attempt to tackle the two important issues with a case study of land cover mapping using CCRS 10-day MODIS composites with the help of Random Forests' features: variable importance, outlier identification. The variable importance feature is used to analyze and select optimal subsets of time-series MODIS imagery for efficient land cover mapping, and the outlier identification feature is utilized for transferring sample data available from one year to an adjacent year for supervised classification modelling. The results of the case study of agricultural land cover classification at a regional scale show that using only about a half of the variables we can achieve land cover classification accuracy close to that generated using the full dataset. The proposed simple but effective solution of sample transferring could make supervised modelling possible for applications lacking sample data.

  19. Pseudo-Marginal Slice Sampling

    OpenAIRE

    Murray, Iain; Graham, Matthew

    2015-01-01

    Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods asymptotically sample from complex probability distributions. The pseudo-marginal MCMC framework only requires an unbiased estimator of the unnormalized probability distribution function to construct a Markov chain. However, the resulting chains are harder to tune to a target distribution than conventional MCMC, and the types of updates available are limited. We describe a general way to clamp and update the random numbers used in a pseudo-marginal meth...

  20. Probability on real Lie algebras

    CERN Document Server

    Franz, Uwe

    2016-01-01

    This monograph is a progressive introduction to non-commutativity in probability theory, summarizing and synthesizing recent results about classical and quantum stochastic processes on Lie algebras. In the early chapters, focus is placed on concrete examples of the links between algebraic relations and the moments of probability distributions. The subsequent chapters are more advanced and deal with Wigner densities for non-commutative couples of random variables, non-commutative stochastic processes with independent increments (quantum Lévy processes), and the quantum Malliavin calculus. This book will appeal to advanced undergraduate and graduate students interested in the relations between algebra, probability, and quantum theory. It also addresses a more advanced audience by covering other topics related to non-commutativity in stochastic calculus, Lévy processes, and the Malliavin calculus.

  1. Sample size methodology

    CERN Document Server

    Desu, M M

    2012-01-01

    One of the most important problems in designing an experiment or a survey is sample size determination and this book presents the currently available methodology. It includes both random sampling from standard probability distributions and from finite populations. Also discussed is sample size determination for estimating parameters in a Bayesian setting by considering the posterior distribution of the parameter and specifying the necessary requirements. The determination of the sample size is considered for ranking and selection problems as well as for the design of clinical trials. Appropria

  2. Probability Analysis of a Quantum Computer

    OpenAIRE

    Einarsson, Göran

    2003-01-01

    The quantum computer algorithm by Peter Shor for factorization of integers is studied. The quantum nature of a QC makes its outcome random. The output probability distribution is investigated and the chances of a successful operation is determined

  3. Enhancing positive parent-child interactions and family functioning in a poverty sample: a randomized control trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Negrão, Mariana; Pereira, Mariana; Soares, Isabel; Mesman, Judi

    2014-01-01

    This study tested the attachment-based intervention program Video-feedback Intervention to promote Positive Parenting and Sensitive Discipline (VIPP-SD) in a randomized controlled trial with poor families of toddlers screened for professional's concerns about the child's caregiving environment. The VIPP-SD is an evidence-based intervention, but has not yet been tested in the context of poverty. The sample included 43 families with 1- to 4-year-old children: mean age at the pretest was 29 months and 51% were boys. At the pretest and posttest, mother-child interactions were observed at home, and mothers reported on family functioning. The VIPP-SD proved to be effective in enhancing positive parent-child interactions and positive family relations in a severely deprived context. Results are discussed in terms of implications for support services provided to such poor families in order to reduce intergenerational risk transmission.

  4. Rationale, Design, Samples, and Baseline Sun Protection in a Randomized Trial on a Skin Cancer Prevention Intervention in Resort Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buller, David B.; Andersen, Peter A.; Walkosz, Barbara J.; Scott, Michael D.; Beck, Larry; Cutter, Gary R.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Exposure to solar ultraviolet radiation during recreation is a risk factor for skin cancer. A trial evaluating an intervention to promote advanced sun protection (sunscreen pre-application/reapplication; protective hats and clothing; use of shade) during vacations. Materials and Methods Adult visitors to hotels/resorts with outdoor recreation (i.e., vacationers) participated in a group-randomized pretest-posttest controlled quasi-experimental design in 2012–14. Hotels/resorts were pair-matched and randomly assigned to the intervention or untreated control group. Sun protection (e.g., clothing, hats, shade and sunscreen) was measured in cross-sectional samples by observation and a face-to-face intercept survey during two-day visits. Results Initially, 41 hotel/resorts (11%) participated but 4 dropped out before posttest. Hotel/resorts were diverse (employees=30 to 900; latitude=24o 78′ N to 50o 52′ N; elevation=2 ft. to 9,726 ft. above sea level), and had a variety of outdoor venues (beaches/pools, court/lawn games, golf courses, common areas, and chairlifts). At pretest, 4,347 vacationers were observed and 3,531 surveyed. More females were surveyed (61%) than observed (50%). Vacationers were mostly 35–60 years old, highly educated (college education = 68%) and non-Hispanic white (93%), with high-risk skin types (22%). Vacationers reported covering 60% of their skin with clothing. Also, 40% of vacationers used shade; 60% applied sunscreen; and 42% had been sunburned. Conclusions The trial faced challenges recruiting resorts but result show that the large, multi-state sample of vacationers were at high risk for solar UV exposure. PMID:26593781

  5. Investigating causal associations between use of nicotine, alcohol, caffeine, and cannabis: A two-sample bidirectional Mendelian randomization study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verweij, Karin J H; Treur, Jorien L; Vink, Jacqueline M

    2018-01-15

    Epidemiological studies consistently show co-occurrence of use of different addictive substances. Whether these associations are causal or due to overlapping underlying influences remains an important question in addiction research. Methodological advances have made it possible to use published genetic associations to infer causal relationships between phenotypes. In this exploratory study, we used Mendelian randomization (MR) to examine the causality of well-established associations between nicotine, alcohol, caffeine, and cannabis use. Two-sample MR was employed to estimate bi-directional causal effects between four addictive substances: nicotine (smoking initiation and cigarettes smoked per day), caffeine (cups of coffee per day), alcohol (units per week), and cannabis (initiation). Based on existing genome-wide association results we selected genetic variants associated with the exposure measure as an instrument to estimate causal effects. Where possible we applied sensitivity analyses (MR-Egger and weighted median) more robust to horizontal pleiotropy. Most MR tests did not reveal causal associations. There was some weak evidence for a causal positive effect of genetically instrumented alcohol use on smoking initiation and of cigarettes per day on caffeine use, but these did not hold up with the sensitivity analyses. There was also some suggestive evidence for a positive effect of alcohol use on caffeine use (only with MR-Egger) and smoking initiation on cannabis initiation (only with weighted median). None of the suggestive causal associations survived corrections for multiple testing. Two-sample Mendelian randomization analyses found little evidence for causal relationships between nicotine, alcohol, caffeine, and cannabis use. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  6. Efficient probability sequence

    OpenAIRE

    Regnier, Eva

    2014-01-01

    A probability sequence is an ordered set of probability forecasts for the same event. Although single-period probabilistic forecasts and methods for evaluating them have been extensively analyzed, we are not aware of any prior work on evaluating probability sequences. This paper proposes an efficiency condition for probability sequences and shows properties of efficient forecasting systems, including memorylessness and increasing discrimination. These results suggest tests for efficiency and ...

  7. Efficient probability sequences

    OpenAIRE

    Regnier, Eva

    2014-01-01

    DRMI working paper A probability sequence is an ordered set of probability forecasts for the same event. Although single-period probabilistic forecasts and methods for evaluating them have been extensively analyzed, we are not aware of any prior work on evaluating probability sequences. This paper proposes an efficiency condition for probability sequences and shows properties of efficiency forecasting systems, including memorylessness and increasing discrimination. These res...

  8. Philosophical theories of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Gillies, Donald

    2000-01-01

    The Twentieth Century has seen a dramatic rise in the use of probability and statistics in almost all fields of research. This has stimulated many new philosophical ideas on probability. Philosophical Theories of Probability is the first book to present a clear, comprehensive and systematic account of these various theories and to explain how they relate to one another. Gillies also offers a distinctive version of the propensity theory of probability, and the intersubjective interpretation, which develops the subjective theory.

  9. Estimating Subjective Probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Steffen; Fountain, John; Harrison, Glenn W.

    Subjective probabilities play a central role in many economic decisions, and act as an immediate confound of inferences about behavior, unless controlled for. Several procedures to recover subjective probabilities have been proposed, but in order to recover the correct latent probability one must...

  10. Estimating Subjective Probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Steffen; Fountain, John; Harrison, Glenn W.

    2014-01-01

    Subjective probabilities play a central role in many economic decisions and act as an immediate confound of inferences about behavior, unless controlled for. Several procedures to recover subjective probabilities have been proposed, but in order to recover the correct latent probability one must ...

  11. Interpretations of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Khrennikov, Andrei

    2009-01-01

    This is the first fundamental book devoted to non-Kolmogorov probability models. It provides a mathematical theory of negative probabilities, with numerous applications to quantum physics, information theory, complexity, biology and psychology. The book also presents an interesting model of cognitive information reality with flows of information probabilities, describing the process of thinking, social, and psychological phenomena.

  12. Probability of coincidental similarity among the orbits of small bodies - I. Pairing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jopek, Tadeusz Jan; Bronikowska, Małgorzata

    2017-09-01

    Probability of coincidental clustering among orbits of comets, asteroids and meteoroids depends on many factors like: the size of the orbital sample searched for clusters or the size of the identified group, it is different for groups of 2,3,4,… members. Probability of coincidental clustering is assessed by the numerical simulation, therefore, it depends also on the method used for the synthetic orbits generation. We have tested the impact of some of these factors. For a given size of the orbital sample we have assessed probability of random pairing among several orbital populations of different sizes. We have found how these probabilities vary with the size of the orbital samples. Finally, keeping fixed size of the orbital sample we have shown that the probability of random pairing can be significantly different for the orbital samples obtained by different observation techniques. Also for the user convenience we have obtained several formulae which, for given size of the orbital sample can be used to calculate the similarity threshold corresponding to the small value of the probability of coincidental similarity among two orbits.

  13. Jenis Sample: Keuntungan dan Kerugiannya

    OpenAIRE

    Suprapto, Agus

    1994-01-01

    Sample is a part of a population that are used in a study for purposes of making estimation about the nature of the total population that is obtained with sampling technic. Sampling technic is more adventagous than cencus because it can reduce cost, time, and it can gather deeper information and more accurate data. It is useful to distinguish two major types of sampling technics. First, Prob bility sampling i.e. simple random sampling. Second, Non Probability sampling i.e. systematic sam­plin...

  14. Simulations of Probabilities for Quantum Computing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zak, M.

    1996-01-01

    It has been demonstrated that classical probabilities, and in particular, probabilistic Turing machine, can be simulated by combining chaos and non-LIpschitz dynamics, without utilization of any man-made devices (such as random number generators). Self-organizing properties of systems coupling simulated and calculated probabilities and their link to quantum computations are discussed.

  15. An introduction to probability and stochastic processes

    CERN Document Server

    Melsa, James L

    2013-01-01

    Geared toward college seniors and first-year graduate students, this text is designed for a one-semester course in probability and stochastic processes. Topics covered in detail include probability theory, random variables and their functions, stochastic processes, linear system response to stochastic processes, Gaussian and Markov processes, and stochastic differential equations. 1973 edition.

  16. Oxygen boundary crossing probabilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busch, N A; Silver, I A

    1987-01-01

    The probability that an oxygen particle will reach a time dependent boundary is required in oxygen transport studies involving solution methods based on probability considerations. A Volterra integral equation is presented, the solution of which gives directly the boundary crossing probability density function. The boundary crossing probability is the probability that the oxygen particle will reach a boundary within a specified time interval. When the motion of the oxygen particle may be described as strongly Markovian, then the Volterra integral equation can be rewritten as a generalized Abel equation, the solution of which has been widely studied.

  17. Philosophy and probability

    CERN Document Server

    Childers, Timothy

    2013-01-01

    Probability is increasingly important for our understanding of the world. What is probability? How do we model it, and how do we use it? Timothy Childers presents a lively introduction to the foundations of probability and to philosophical issues it raises. He keeps technicalities to a minimum, and assumes no prior knowledge of the subject. He explains the main interpretations of probability-frequentist, propensity, classical, Bayesian, and objective Bayesian-and uses stimulatingexamples to bring the subject to life. All students of philosophy will benefit from an understanding of probability,

  18. Sampling Methods in Cardiovascular Nursing Research: An Overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kandola, Damanpreet; Banner, Davina; O'Keefe-McCarthy, Sheila; Jassal, Debbie

    2014-01-01

    Cardiovascular nursing research covers a wide array of topics from health services to psychosocial patient experiences. The selection of specific participant samples is an important part of the research design and process. The sampling strategy employed is of utmost importance to ensure that a representative sample of participants is chosen. There are two main categories of sampling methods: probability and non-probability. Probability sampling is the random selection of elements from the population, where each element of the population has an equal and independent chance of being included in the sample. There are five main types of probability sampling including simple random sampling, systematic sampling, stratified sampling, cluster sampling, and multi-stage sampling. Non-probability sampling methods are those in which elements are chosen through non-random methods for inclusion into the research study and include convenience sampling, purposive sampling, and snowball sampling. Each approach offers distinct advantages and disadvantages and must be considered critically. In this research column, we provide an introduction to these key sampling techniques and draw on examples from the cardiovascular research. Understanding the differences in sampling techniques may aid nurses in effective appraisal of research literature and provide a reference pointfor nurses who engage in cardiovascular research.

  19. In All Probability, Probability is not All

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helman, Danny

    2004-01-01

    The national lottery is often portrayed as a game of pure chance with no room for strategy. This misperception seems to stem from the application of probability instead of expectancy considerations, and can be utilized to introduce the statistical concept of expectation.

  20. High Field In Vivo 13C Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy of Brain by Random Radiofrequency Heteronuclear Decoupling and Data Sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ningzhi; Li, Shizhe; Shen, Jun

    2017-06-01

    In vivo 13C magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) is a unique and effective tool for studying dynamic human brain metabolism and the cycling of neurotransmitters. One of the major technical challenges for in vivo 13C-MRS is the high radio frequency (RF) power necessary for heteronuclear decoupling. In the common practice of in vivo 13C-MRS, alkanyl carbons are detected in the spectra range of 10-65ppm. The amplitude of decoupling pulses has to be significantly greater than the large one-bond 1H-13C scalar coupling (1JCH=125-145 Hz). Two main proton decoupling methods have been developed: broadband stochastic decoupling and coherent composite or adiabatic pulse decoupling (e.g., WALTZ); the latter is widely used because of its efficiency and superb performance under inhomogeneous B1 field. Because the RF power required for proton decoupling increases quadratically with field strength, in vivo 13C-MRS using coherent decoupling is often limited to low magnetic fields (Drug Administration (FDA). Alternately, carboxylic/amide carbons are coupled to protons via weak long-range 1H-13C scalar couplings, which can be decoupled using low RF power broadband stochastic decoupling. Recently, the carboxylic/amide 13C-MRS technique using low power random RF heteronuclear decoupling was safely applied to human brain studies at 7T. Here, we review the two major decoupling methods and the carboxylic/amide 13C-MRS with low power decoupling strategy. Further decreases in RF power deposition by frequency-domain windowing and time-domain random under-sampling are also discussed. Low RF power decoupling opens the possibility of performing in vivo 13C experiments of human brain at very high magnetic fields (such as 11.7T), where signal-to-noise ratio as well as spatial and temporal spectral resolution are more favorable than lower fields.

  1. Rationale, design, methodology and sample characteristics for the Vietnam pre-conceptual micronutrient supplementation trial (PRECONCEPT: a randomized controlled study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nguyen Phuong H

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Low birth weight and maternal anemia remain intractable problems in many developing countries. The adequacy of the current strategy of providing iron-folic acid (IFA supplements only during pregnancy has been questioned given many women enter pregnancy with poor iron stores, the substantial micronutrient demand by maternal and fetal tissues, and programmatic issues related to timing and coverage of prenatal care. Weekly IFA supplementation for women of reproductive age (WRA improves iron status and reduces the burden of anemia in the short term, but few studies have evaluated subsequent pregnancy and birth outcomes. The Preconcept trial aims to determine whether pre-pregnancy weekly IFA or multiple micronutrient (MM supplementation will improve birth outcomes and maternal and infant iron status compared to the current practice of prenatal IFA supplementation only. This paper provides an overview of study design, methodology and sample characteristics from baseline survey data and key lessons learned. Methods/design We have recruited 5011 WRA in a double-blind stratified randomized controlled trial in rural Vietnam and randomly assigned them to receive weekly supplements containing either: 1 2800 μg folic acid 2 60 mg iron and 2800 μg folic acid or 3 MM. Women who become pregnant receive daily IFA, and are being followed through pregnancy, delivery, and up to three months post-partum. Study outcomes include birth outcomes and maternal and infant iron status. Data are being collected on household characteristics, maternal diet and mental health, anthropometry, infant feeding practices, morbidity and compliance. Discussion The study is timely and responds to the WHO Global Expert Consultation which identified the need to evaluate the long term benefits of weekly IFA and MM supplementation in WRA. Findings will generate new information to help guide policy and programs designed to reduce the burden of anemia in women and

  2. Comparing attitudes about legal sanctions and teratogenic effects for cocaine, alcohol, tobacco and caffeine: A randomized, independent samples design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alanis Kelly L

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Establishing more sensible measures to treat cocaine-addicted mothers and their children is essential for improving U.S. drug policy. Favorable post-natal environments have moderated potential deleterious prenatal effects. However, since cocaine is an illicit substance having long been demonized, we hypothesized that attitudes toward prenatal cocaine exposure would be more negative than for licit substances, alcohol, nicotine and caffeine. Further, media portrayals about long-term outcomes were hypothesized to influence viewers' attitudes, measured immediately post-viewing. Reducing popular crack baby stigmas could influence future policy decisions by legislators. In Study 1, 336 participants were randomly assigned to 1 of 4 conditions describing hypothetical legal sanction scenarios for pregnant women using cocaine, alcohol, nicotine or caffeine. Participants rated legal sanctions against pregnant women who used one of these substances and risk potential for developing children. In Study 2, 139 participants were randomly assigned to positive, neutral and negative media conditions. Immediately post-viewing, participants rated prenatal cocaine-exposed or non-exposed teens for their academic performance and risk for problems at age18. Results Participants in Study 1 imposed significantly greater legal sanctions for cocaine, perceiving prenatal cocaine exposure as more harmful than alcohol, nicotine or caffeine. A one-way ANOVA for independent samples showed significant differences, beyond .0001. Post-hoc Sheffe test illustrated that cocaine was rated differently from other substances. In Study 2, a one-way ANOVA for independent samples was performed on difference scores for the positive, neutral or negative media conditions about prenatal cocaine exposure. Participants in the neutral and negative media conditions estimated significantly lower grade point averages and more problems for the teen with prenatal cocaine exposure

  3. Comparing attitudes about legal sanctions and teratogenic effects for cocaine, alcohol, tobacco and caffeine: A randomized, independent samples design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginsburg, Harvey J; Raffeld, Paul; Alanis, Kelly L; Boyce, Angela S

    2006-01-01

    Background Establishing more sensible measures to treat cocaine-addicted mothers and their children is essential for improving U.S. drug policy. Favorable post-natal environments have moderated potential deleterious prenatal effects. However, since cocaine is an illicit substance having long been demonized, we hypothesized that attitudes toward prenatal cocaine exposure would be more negative than for licit substances, alcohol, nicotine and caffeine. Further, media portrayals about long-term outcomes were hypothesized to influence viewers' attitudes, measured immediately post-viewing. Reducing popular crack baby stigmas could influence future policy decisions by legislators. In Study 1, 336 participants were randomly assigned to 1 of 4 conditions describing hypothetical legal sanction scenarios for pregnant women using cocaine, alcohol, nicotine or caffeine. Participants rated legal sanctions against pregnant women who used one of these substances and risk potential for developing children. In Study 2, 139 participants were randomly assigned to positive, neutral and negative media conditions. Immediately post-viewing, participants rated prenatal cocaine-exposed or non-exposed teens for their academic performance and risk for problems at age18. Results Participants in Study 1 imposed significantly greater legal sanctions for cocaine, perceiving prenatal cocaine exposure as more harmful than alcohol, nicotine or caffeine. A one-way ANOVA for independent samples showed significant differences, beyond .0001. Post-hoc Sheffe test illustrated that cocaine was rated differently from other substances. In Study 2, a one-way ANOVA for independent samples was performed on difference scores for the positive, neutral or negative media conditions about prenatal cocaine exposure. Participants in the neutral and negative media conditions estimated significantly lower grade point averages and more problems for the teen with prenatal cocaine exposure than for the non-exposed teen

  4. Statistics and Probability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laktineh Imad

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available This ourse constitutes a brief introduction to probability applications in high energy physis. First the mathematical tools related to the diferent probability conepts are introduced. The probability distributions which are commonly used in high energy physics and their characteristics are then shown and commented. The central limit theorem and its consequences are analysed. Finally some numerical methods used to produce diferent kinds of probability distribution are presented. The full article (17 p. corresponding to this lecture is written in french and is provided in the proceedings of the book SOS 2008.

  5. Handbook of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Florescu, Ionut

    2013-01-01

    THE COMPLETE COLLECTION NECESSARY FOR A CONCRETE UNDERSTANDING OF PROBABILITY Written in a clear, accessible, and comprehensive manner, the Handbook of Probability presents the fundamentals of probability with an emphasis on the balance of theory, application, and methodology. Utilizing basic examples throughout, the handbook expertly transitions between concepts and practice to allow readers an inclusive introduction to the field of probability. The book provides a useful format with self-contained chapters, allowing the reader easy and quick reference. Each chapter includes an introductio

  6. Real analysis and probability

    CERN Document Server

    Ash, Robert B; Lukacs, E

    1972-01-01

    Real Analysis and Probability provides the background in real analysis needed for the study of probability. Topics covered range from measure and integration theory to functional analysis and basic concepts of probability. The interplay between measure theory and topology is also discussed, along with conditional probability and expectation, the central limit theorem, and strong laws of large numbers with respect to martingale theory.Comprised of eight chapters, this volume begins with an overview of the basic concepts of the theory of measure and integration, followed by a presentation of var

  7. Probability measures on metric spaces

    CERN Document Server

    Parthasarathy, K R

    2005-01-01

    In this book, the author gives a cohesive account of the theory of probability measures on complete metric spaces (which is viewed as an alternative approach to the general theory of stochastic processes). After a general description of the basics of topology on the set of measures, the author discusses regularity, tightness, and perfectness of measures, properties of sampling distributions, and metrizability and compactness theorems. Next, he describes arithmetic properties of probability measures on metric groups and locally compact abelian groups. Covered in detail are notions such as decom

  8. Coordination of Conditional Poisson Samples

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grafström Anton

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Sample coordination seeks to maximize or to minimize the overlap of two or more samples. The former is known as positive coordination, and the latter as negative coordination. Positive coordination is mainly used for estimation purposes and to reduce data collection costs. Negative coordination is mainly performed to diminish the response burden of the sampled units. Poisson sampling design with permanent random numbers provides an optimum coordination degree of two or more samples. The size of a Poisson sample is, however, random. Conditional Poisson (CP sampling is a modification of the classical Poisson sampling that produces a fixed-size πps sample. We introduce two methods to coordinate Conditional Poisson samples over time or simultaneously. The first one uses permanent random numbers and the list-sequential implementation of CP sampling. The second method uses a CP sample in the first selection and provides an approximate one in the second selection because the prescribed inclusion probabilities are not respected exactly. The methods are evaluated using the size of the expected sample overlap, and are compared with their competitors using Monte Carlo simulation. The new methods provide a good coordination degree of two samples, close to the performance of Poisson sampling with permanent random numbers.

  9. Association of macronutrient intake patterns with being overweight in a population-based random sample of men in France.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahluwalia, N; Ferrières, J; Dallongeville, J; Simon, C; Ducimetière, P; Amouyel, P; Arveiler, D; Ruidavets, J-B

    2009-04-01

    Diet is considered an important modifiable factor in the overweight. The role of macronutrients in obesity has been examined in general in selected populations, but the results of these studies are mixed, depending on the potential confounders and adjustments for other macronutrients. For this reason, we examined the association between macronutrient intake patterns and being overweight in a population-based representative sample of middle-aged (55.1+/-6.1 years) men (n=966), using various adjustment modalities. The study subjects kept 3-day food-intake records, and the standard cardiovascular risk factors were assessed. Weight, height and waist circumference (WC) were also measured. Carbohydrate intake was negatively associated and fat intake was positively associated with body mass index (BMI) and WC in regression models adjusted for energy intake and other factors, including age, smoking and physical activity. However, with mutual adjustments for other energy-yielding nutrients, the negative association of carbohydrate intake with WC remained significant, whereas the associations between fat intake and measures of obesity did not. Adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence interval) comparing the highest and lowest quartiles of carbohydrate intake were 0.50 (0.25-0.97) for obesity (BMI>29.9) and 0.41 (0.23-0.73) for abdominal obesity (WC>101.9 cm). Consistent negative associations between carbohydrate intake and BMI and WC were seen in this random representative sample of the general male population. The associations between fat intake and these measures of being overweight were attenuated on adjusting for carbohydrate intake. Thus, the balance of carbohydrate-to-fat intake is an important element in obesity in a general male population, and should be highlighted in dietary guidelines.

  10. Assessing causality in associations between cannabis use and schizophrenia risk: a two-sample Mendelian randomization study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gage, S H; Jones, H J; Burgess, S; Bowden, J; Davey Smith, G; Zammit, S; Munafò, M R

    2017-04-01

    Observational associations between cannabis and schizophrenia are well documented, but ascertaining causation is more challenging. We used Mendelian randomization (MR), utilizing publicly available data as a method for ascertaining causation from observational data. We performed bi-directional two-sample MR using summary-level genome-wide data from the International Cannabis Consortium (ICC) and the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium (PGC2). Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with cannabis initiation (p schizophrenia (p cannabis initiation on risk of schizophrenia [odds ratio (OR) 1.04 per doubling odds of cannabis initiation, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-1.07, p = 0.019]. There was strong evidence consistent with a causal effect of schizophrenia risk on likelihood of cannabis initiation (OR 1.10 per doubling of the odds of schizophrenia, 95% CI 1.05-1.14, p = 2.64 × 10-5). Findings were as predicted for the negative control (height: OR 1.00, 95% CI 0.99-1.01, p = 0.90) but weaker than predicted for the positive control (years in education: OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.97-1.00, p = 0.066) analyses. Our results provide some that cannabis initiation increases the risk of schizophrenia, although the size of the causal estimate is small. We find stronger evidence that schizophrenia risk predicts cannabis initiation, possibly as genetic instruments for schizophrenia are stronger than for cannabis initiation.

  11. Multiple-image authentication with a cascaded multilevel architecture based on amplitude field random sampling and phase information multiplexing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Desheng; Meng, Xiangfeng; Wang, Yurong; Yang, Xiulun; Pan, Xuemei; Peng, Xiang; He, Wenqi; Dong, Guoyan; Chen, Hongyi

    2015-04-10

    A multiple-image authentication method with a cascaded multilevel architecture in the Fresnel domain is proposed, in which a synthetic encoded complex amplitude is first fabricated, and its real amplitude component is generated by iterative amplitude encoding, random sampling, and space multiplexing for the low-level certification images, while the phase component of the synthetic encoded complex amplitude is constructed by iterative phase information encoding and multiplexing for the high-level certification images. Then the synthetic encoded complex amplitude is iteratively encoded into two phase-type ciphertexts located in two different transform planes. During high-level authentication, when the two phase-type ciphertexts and the high-level decryption key are presented to the system and then the Fresnel transform is carried out, a meaningful image with good quality and a high correlation coefficient with the original certification image can be recovered in the output plane. Similar to the procedure of high-level authentication, in the case of low-level authentication with the aid of a low-level decryption key, no significant or meaningful information is retrieved, but it can result in a remarkable peak output in the nonlinear correlation coefficient of the output image and the corresponding original certification image. Therefore, the method realizes different levels of accessibility to the original certification image for different authority levels with the same cascaded multilevel architecture.

  12. Mental health impact of the 2010 Haiti earthquake on the Miami Haitian population: A random-sample survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Messiah, Antoine; Acuna, Juan M; Castro, Grettel; de la Vega, Pura Rodríguez; Vaiva, Guillaume; Shultz, James; Neria, Yuval; De La Rosa, Mario

    2014-07-01

    This study examined the mental health consequences of the January 2010 Haiti earthquake on Haitians living in Miami-Dade County, Florida, 2-3 years following the event. A random-sample household survey was conducted from October 2011 through December 2012 in Miami-Dade County, Florida. Haitian participants (N = 421) were assessed for their earthquake exposure and its impact on family, friends, and household finances; and for symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), anxiety, and major depression; using standardized screening measures and thresholds. Exposure was considered as "direct" if the interviewee was in Haiti during the earthquake. Exposure was classified as "indirect" if the interviewee was not in Haiti during the earthquake but (1) family members or close friends were victims of the earthquake, and/or (2) family members were hosted in the respondent's household, and/or (3) assets or jobs were lost because of the earthquake. Interviewees who did not qualify for either direct or indirect exposure were designated as "lower" exposure. Eight percent of respondents qualified for direct exposure, and 63% qualified for indirect exposure. Among those with direct exposure, 19% exceeded threshold for PTSD, 36% for anxiety, and 45% for depression. Corresponding percentages were 9%, 22% and 24% for respondents with indirect exposure, and 6%, 14%, and 10% for those with lower exposure. A majority of Miami Haitians were directly or indirectly exposed to the earthquake. Mental health distress among them remains considerable two to three years post-earthquake.

  13. Mental Health Impact of Hosting Disaster Refugees: Analyses from a Random Sample Survey Among Haitians Living in Miami.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Messiah, Antoine; Lacoste, Jérôme; Gokalsing, Erick; Shultz, James M; Rodríguez de la Vega, Pura; Castro, Grettel; Acuna, Juan M

    2016-08-01

    Studies on the mental health of families hosting disaster refugees are lacking. This study compares participants in households that hosted 2010 Haitian earthquake disaster refugees with their nonhost counterparts. A random sample survey was conducted from October 2011 through December 2012 in Miami-Dade County, Florida. Haitian participants were assessed regarding their 2010 earthquake exposure and impact on family and friends and whether they hosted earthquake refugees. Using standardized scores and thresholds, they were evaluated for symptoms of three common mental disorders (CMDs): posttraumatic stress disorder, generalized anxiety disorder, and major depressive disorder (MDD). Participants who hosted refugees (n = 51) had significantly higher percentages of scores beyond thresholds for MDD than those who did not host refugees (n = 365) and for at least one CMD, after adjusting for participants' earthquake exposures and effects on family and friends. Hosting refugees from a natural disaster appears to elevate the risk for MDD and possibly other CMDs, independent of risks posed by exposure to the disaster itself. Families hosting refugees deserve special attention.

  14. Randomization modeling to ascertain clustering patterns of human papillomavirus types detected in cervicovaginal samples in the United States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Troy David Querec

    Full Text Available Detection of multiple human papillomavirus (HPV types in the genital tract is common. Associations among HPV types may impact HPV vaccination modeling and type replacement. The objectives were to determine the distribution of concurrent HPV type infections in cervicovaginal samples and examine type-specific associations. We analyzed HPV genotyping results from 32,245 cervicovaginal specimens collected from women aged 11 to 83 years in the United States from 2001 through 2011. Statistical power was enhanced by combining 6 separate studies. Expected concurrent infection frequencies from a series of permutation models, each with increasing fidelity to the real data, were compared with the observed data. Statistics were computed based on the distributional properties of the randomized data. Concurrent detection occurred more than expected with 0 or ≥3 HPV types and less than expected with 1 and 2 types. Some women bear a disproportionate burden of the HPV type prevalence. Type associations were observed that exceeded multiple hypothesis corrected significance. Multiple HPV types were detected more frequently than expected by chance and associations among particular HPV types were detected. However vaccine-targeted types were not specifically affected, supporting the expectation that current bivalent/quadrivalent HPV vaccination will not result in type replacement with other high-risk types.

  15. A Novel Approach to Probability

    CERN Document Server

    Kafri, Oded

    2016-01-01

    When P indistinguishable balls are randomly distributed among L distinguishable boxes, and considering the dense system in which P much greater than L, our natural intuition tells us that the box with the average number of balls has the highest probability and that none of boxes are empty; however in reality, the probability of the empty box is always the highest. This fact is with contradistinction to sparse system in which the number of balls is smaller than the number of boxes (i.e. energy distribution in gas) in which the average value has the highest probability. Here we show that when we postulate the requirement that all possible configurations of balls in the boxes have equal probabilities, a realistic "long tail" distribution is obtained. This formalism when applied for sparse systems converges to distributions in which the average is preferred. We calculate some of the distributions resulted from this postulate and obtain most of the known distributions in nature, namely, Zipf law, Benford law, part...

  16. Difficulties related to Probabilities

    OpenAIRE

    Rosinger, Elemer Elad

    2010-01-01

    Probability theory is often used as it would have the same ontological status with, for instance, Euclidean Geometry or Peano Arithmetics. In this regard, several highly questionable aspects of probability theory are mentioned which have earlier been presented in two arxiv papers.

  17. Dynamic update with probabilities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Benthem, Johan; Gerbrandy, Jelle; Kooi, Barteld

    2009-01-01

    Current dynamic-epistemic logics model different types of information change in multi-agent scenarios. We generalize these logics to a probabilistic setting, obtaining a calculus for multi-agent update with three natural slots: prior probability on states, occurrence probabilities in the relevant

  18. Elements of quantum probability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kummerer, B.; Maassen, H.

    1996-01-01

    This is an introductory article presenting some basic ideas of quantum probability. From a discussion of simple experiments with polarized light and a card game we deduce the necessity of extending the body of classical probability theory. For a class of systems, containing classical systems with

  19. Introduction to probability

    CERN Document Server

    Freund, John E

    1993-01-01

    Thorough, lucid coverage of permutations and factorials, probabilities and odds, frequency interpretation, mathematical expectation, decision making, postulates of probability, rule of elimination, binomial distribution, geometric distribution, standard deviation, law of large numbers, and much more. Exercises with some solutions. Summary. Bibliography. Includes 42 black-and-white illustrations. 1973 edition.

  20. Probability on compact Lie groups

    CERN Document Server

    Applebaum, David

    2014-01-01

    Probability theory on compact Lie groups deals with the interaction between “chance” and “symmetry,” a beautiful area of mathematics of great interest in its own sake but which is now also finding increasing applications in statistics and engineering (particularly with respect to signal processing). The author gives a comprehensive introduction to some of the principle areas of study, with an emphasis on applicability. The most important topics presented are: the study of measures via the non-commutative Fourier transform, existence and regularity of densities, properties of random walks and convolution semigroups of measures, and the statistical problem of deconvolution. The emphasis on compact (rather than general) Lie groups helps readers to get acquainted with what is widely seen as a difficult field but which is also justified by the wealth of interesting results at this level and the importance of these groups for applications. The book is primarily aimed at researchers working in probability, s...

  1. Janus-faced probability

    CERN Document Server

    Rocchi, Paolo

    2014-01-01

    The problem of probability interpretation was long overlooked before exploding in the 20th century, when the frequentist and subjectivist schools formalized two conflicting conceptions of probability. Beyond the radical followers of the two schools, a circle of pluralist thinkers tends to reconcile the opposing concepts. The author uses two theorems in order to prove that the various interpretations of probability do not come into opposition and can be used in different contexts. The goal here is to clarify the multifold nature of probability by means of a purely mathematical approach and to show how philosophical arguments can only serve to deepen actual intellectual contrasts. The book can be considered as one of the most important contributions in the analysis of probability interpretation in the last 10-15 years.

  2. [Acupuncture and moxibustion for peripheral facial palsy at different stages: multi-central large-sample randomized controlled trial].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ying; Li, Yan; Liu, Li-an; Zhao, Ling; Hu, Ka-ming; Wu, Xi; Chen, Xiao-qin; Li, Gui-ping; Mang, Ling-ling; Qi, Qi-hua

    2011-04-01

    To explore the best intervention time of acupuncture and moxibustion for peripheral facial palsy (Bell's palsy) and the clinical advantage program of selective treatment with acupuncture and moxibustion. Multi-central large-sample randomized controlled trial was carried out. Nine hundreds cases of Bell's palsy were randomized into 5 treatment groups, named selective filiform needle group (group A), selective acupuncture + moxibustion group (group B), selective acupuncture + electroacupuncture (group C), selective acupuncture + line-up needling on muscle region of meridian group (group D) and non-selective filiform needle group (group E). Four sessions of treatment were required in each group. Separately, during the enrollment, after 4 sessions of treatment, in 1 month and 3 months of follow-up after treatment, House-Brackmann Scale, Facial Disability Index Scale and Degree of Facial Nerve Paralysis (NFNP) were adopted for efficacy assessment. And the efficacy systematic analysis was provided in view of the intervention time and nerve localization of disease separately. The curative rates of intervention in acute stage and resting stage were 50.1% (223/445) and 52.1% (162/311), which were superior to recovery stage (25.9%, 35/135) separately. There were no statistical significant differences in efficacy in comparison among 5 treatment programs at the same stage (all P > 0.05). The efficacy of intervention of group A and group E in acute stage was superior to that in recovery stage (both P < 0.01). The difference was significant statistically between the efficacy on the localization above chorda tympani nerve and that on the localization below the nerve in group D (P < 0.01). The efficacy on the localization below chorda tympani nerve was superior to the localization above the nerve. The best intervention time for the treatment of Bell's palsy is in acute stage and resting stage, meaning 1 to 3 weeks after occurrence. All of the 5 treatment programs are advantageous

  3. Tobacco smoking surveillance: is quota sampling an efficient tool for monitoring national trends? A comparison with a random cross-sectional survey.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romain Guignard

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: It is crucial for policy makers to monitor the evolution of tobacco smoking prevalence. In France, this monitoring is based on a series of cross-sectional general population surveys, the Health Barometers, conducted every five years and based on random samples. A methodological study has been carried out to assess the reliability of a monitoring system based on regular quota sampling surveys for smoking prevalence. DESIGN / OUTCOME MEASURES: In 2010, current and daily tobacco smoking prevalences obtained in a quota survey on 8,018 people were compared with those of the 2010 Health Barometer carried out on 27,653 people. Prevalences were assessed separately according to the telephone equipment of the interviewee (landline phone owner vs "mobile-only", and logistic regressions were conducted in the pooled database to assess the impact of the telephone equipment and of the survey mode on the prevalences found. Finally, logistic regressions adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics were conducted in the random sample in order to determine the impact of the needed number of calls to interwiew "hard-to-reach" people on the prevalence found. RESULTS: Current and daily prevalences were higher in the random sample (respectively 33.9% and 27.5% in 15-75 years-old than in the quota sample (respectively 30.2% and 25.3%. In both surveys, current and daily prevalences were lower among landline phone owners (respectively 31.8% and 25.5% in the random sample and 28.9% and 24.0% in the quota survey. The required number of calls was slightly related to the smoking status after adjustment for sociodemographic characteristics. CONCLUSION: Random sampling appears to be more effective than quota sampling, mainly by making it possible to interview hard-to-reach populations.

  4. Probability density of quantum expectation values

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Campos Venuti, L., E-mail: lcamposv@usc.edu; Zanardi, P.

    2013-10-30

    We consider the quantum expectation value A=〈ψ|A|ψ〉 of an observable A over the state |ψ〉. We derive the exact probability distribution of A seen as a random variable when |ψ〉 varies over the set of all pure states equipped with the Haar-induced measure. To illustrate our results we compare the exact predictions for few concrete examples with the concentration bounds obtained using Levy's lemma. We also comment on the relevance of the central limit theorem and finally draw some results on an alternative statistical mechanics based on the uniform measure on the energy shell. - Highlights: • We compute the probability distribution of quantum expectation values for states sampled uniformly. • As a special case we consider in some detail the degenerate case where A is a one-dimensional projector. • We compare the concentration results obtained using Levy's lemma with the exact values obtained using our exact formulae. • We comment on the possibility of a Central Limit Theorem and show approach to Gaussian for a few physical operators. • Some implications of our results for the so-called “Quantum Microcanonical Equilibration” (Refs. [5–9]) are derived.

  5. Sampling considerations for disease surveillance in wildlife populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nusser, S.M.; Clark, W.R.; Otis, D.L.; Huang, L.

    2008-01-01

    Disease surveillance in wildlife populations involves detecting the presence of a disease, characterizing its prevalence and spread, and subsequent monitoring. A probability sample of animals selected from the population and corresponding estimators of disease prevalence and detection provide estimates with quantifiable statistical properties, but this approach is rarely used. Although wildlife scientists often assume probability sampling and random disease distributions to calculate sample sizes, convenience samples (i.e., samples of readily available animals) are typically used, and disease distributions are rarely random. We demonstrate how landscape-based simulation can be used to explore properties of estimators from convenience samples in relation to probability samples. We used simulation methods to model what is known about the habitat preferences of the wildlife population, the disease distribution, and the potential biases of the convenience-sample approach. Using chronic wasting disease in free-ranging deer (Odocoileus virginianus) as a simple illustration, we show that using probability sample designs with appropriate estimators provides unbiased surveillance parameter estimates but that the selection bias and coverage errors associated with convenience samples can lead to biased and misleading results. We also suggest practical alternatives to convenience samples that mix probability and convenience sampling. For example, a sample of land areas can be selected using a probability design that oversamples areas with larger animal populations, followed by harvesting of individual animals within sampled areas using a convenience sampling method.

  6. Probability theory a comprehensive course

    CERN Document Server

    Klenke, Achim

    2014-01-01

    This second edition of the popular textbook contains a comprehensive course in modern probability theory. Overall, probabilistic concepts play an increasingly important role in mathematics, physics, biology, financial engineering and computer science. They help us in understanding magnetism, amorphous media, genetic diversity and the perils of random developments at financial markets, and they guide us in constructing more efficient algorithms.   To address these concepts, the title covers a wide variety of topics, many of which are not usually found in introductory textbooks, such as:   • limit theorems for sums of random variables • martingales • percolation • Markov chains and electrical networks • construction of stochastic processes • Poisson point process and infinite divisibility • large deviation principles and statistical physics • Brownian motion • stochastic integral and stochastic differential equations. The theory is developed rigorously and in a self-contained way, with the c...

  7. Dynamic monopolies with randomized starting configuration

    CERN Document Server

    Kulich, Tomas

    2010-01-01

    Properties of systems with majority voting rules have been exhaustingly studied. In this work we focus on the randomized case - where the system is initialized by randomized initial set of seeds. Our main aim is to give an asymptotic estimate for sampling probability, such that the initial set of seeds is (is not) a dynamic monopoly almost surely. After presenting some trivial examples, we present exhaustive results for toroidal mesh and random 4-regular graph under simple majority scenario.

  8. Probability and Measure

    CERN Document Server

    Billingsley, Patrick

    2012-01-01

    Praise for the Third Edition "It is, as far as I'm concerned, among the best books in math ever written....if you are a mathematician and want to have the top reference in probability, this is it." (Amazon.com, January 2006) A complete and comprehensive classic in probability and measure theory Probability and Measure, Anniversary Edition by Patrick Billingsley celebrates the achievements and advancements that have made this book a classic in its field for the past 35 years. Now re-issued in a new style and format, but with the reliable content that the third edition was revered for, this

  9. Differentiating intraprofessional attitudes toward paradigms in health care delivery among chiropractic factions: results from a randomly sampled survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background As health care has increased in complexity and health care teams have been offered as a solution, so too is there an increased need for stronger interprofessional collaboration. However the intraprofessional factions that exist within every profession challenge interprofessional communication through contrary paradigms. As a contender in the conservative spinal health care market, factions within chiropractic that result in unorthodox practice behaviours may compromise interprofessional relations and that profession’s progress toward institutionalization. The purpose of this investigation was to quantify the professional stratification among Canadian chiropractic practitioners and evaluate the practice perceptions of those factions. Methods A stratified random sample of 740 Canadian chiropractors was surveyed to determine faction membership and how professional stratification could be related to views that could be considered unorthodox to current evidence-based care and guidelines. Stratification in practice behaviours is a stated concern of mainstream medicine when considering interprofessional referrals. Results Of 740 deliverable questionnaires, 503 were returned for a response rate of 68%. Less than 20% of chiropractors (18.8%) were aligned with a predefined unorthodox perspective of the conditions they treat. Prediction models suggest that unorthodox perceptions of health practice related to treatment choices, x-ray use and vaccinations were strongly associated with unorthodox group membership (X2 =13.4, p = 0.0002). Conclusion Chiropractors holding unorthodox views may be identified based on response to specific beliefs that appear to align with unorthodox health practices. Despite continued concerns by mainstream medicine, only a minority of the profession has retained a perspective in contrast to current scientific paradigms. Understanding the profession’s factions is important to the anticipation of care delivery when considering

  10. Probabilities in physics

    CERN Document Server

    Hartmann, Stephan

    2011-01-01

    Many results of modern physics--those of quantum mechanics, for instance--come in a probabilistic guise. But what do probabilistic statements in physics mean? Are probabilities matters of objective fact and part of the furniture of the world, as objectivists think? Or do they only express ignorance or belief, as Bayesians suggest? And how are probabilistic hypotheses justified and supported by empirical evidence? Finally, what does the probabilistic nature of physics imply for our understanding of the world? This volume is the first to provide a philosophical appraisal of probabilities in all of physics. Its main aim is to make sense of probabilistic statements as they occur in the various physical theories and models and to provide a plausible epistemology and metaphysics of probabilities. The essays collected here consider statistical physics, probabilistic modelling, and quantum mechanics, and critically assess the merits and disadvantages of objectivist and subjectivist views of probabilities in these fie...

  11. Probability in physics

    CERN Document Server

    Hemmo, Meir

    2012-01-01

    What is the role and meaning of probability in physical theory, in particular in two of the most successful theories of our age, quantum physics and statistical mechanics? Laws once conceived as universal and deterministic, such as Newton‘s laws of motion, or the second law of thermodynamics, are replaced in these theories by inherently probabilistic laws. This collection of essays by some of the world‘s foremost experts presents an in-depth analysis of the meaning of probability in contemporary physics. Among the questions addressed are: How are probabilities defined? Are they objective or subjective? What is their  explanatory value? What are the differences between quantum and classical probabilities? The result is an informative and thought-provoking book for the scientifically inquisitive. 

  12. Probability for statisticians

    CERN Document Server

    Shorack, Galen R

    2017-01-01

    This 2nd edition textbook offers a rigorous introduction to measure theoretic probability with particular attention to topics of interest to mathematical statisticians—a textbook for courses in probability for students in mathematical statistics. It is recommended to anyone interested in the probability underlying modern statistics, providing a solid grounding in the probabilistic tools and techniques necessary to do theoretical research in statistics. For the teaching of probability theory to post graduate statistics students, this is one of the most attractive books available. Of particular interest is a presentation of the major central limit theorems via Stein's method either prior to or alternative to a characteristic function presentation. Additionally, there is considerable emphasis placed on the quantile function as well as the distribution function. The bootstrap and trimming are both presented. Martingale coverage includes coverage of censored data martingales. The text includes measure theoretic...

  13. Probability and Bayesian statistics

    CERN Document Server

    1987-01-01

    This book contains selected and refereed contributions to the "Inter­ national Symposium on Probability and Bayesian Statistics" which was orga­ nized to celebrate the 80th birthday of Professor Bruno de Finetti at his birthplace Innsbruck in Austria. Since Professor de Finetti died in 1985 the symposium was dedicated to the memory of Bruno de Finetti and took place at Igls near Innsbruck from 23 to 26 September 1986. Some of the pa­ pers are published especially by the relationship to Bruno de Finetti's scientific work. The evolution of stochastics shows growing importance of probability as coherent assessment of numerical values as degrees of believe in certain events. This is the basis for Bayesian inference in the sense of modern statistics. The contributions in this volume cover a broad spectrum ranging from foundations of probability across psychological aspects of formulating sub­ jective probability statements, abstract measure theoretical considerations, contributions to theoretical statistics an...

  14. Quantum computing and probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferry, David K

    2009-11-25

    Over the past two decades, quantum computing has become a popular and promising approach to trying to solve computationally difficult problems. Missing in many descriptions of quantum computing is just how probability enters into the process. Here, we discuss some simple examples of how uncertainty and probability enter, and how this and the ideas of quantum computing challenge our interpretations of quantum mechanics. It is found that this uncertainty can lead to intrinsic decoherence, and this raises challenges for error correction.

  15. Elements of quantum probability

    OpenAIRE

    Kummerer, B.; Maassen, Hans

    1996-01-01

    This is an introductory article presenting some basic ideas of quantum probability. From a discussion of simple experiments with polarized light and a card game we deduce the necessity of extending the body of classical probability theory. For a class of systems, containing classical systems with finitely many states, a probabilistic model is developed. It can describe, in particular, the polarization experiments. Some examples of ‘quantum coin tosses’ are discussed, closely related to V.F.R....

  16. Probability in quantum mechanics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. G. Gilson

    1982-01-01

    Full Text Available By using a fluid theory which is an alternative to quantum theory but from which the latter can be deduced exactly, the long-standing problem of how quantum mechanics is related to stochastic processes is studied. It can be seen how the Schrödinger probability density has a relationship to time spent on small sections of an orbit, just as the probability density has in some classical contexts.

  17. The estimation of tree posterior probabilities using conditional clade probability distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larget, Bret

    2013-07-01

    In this article I introduce the idea of conditional independence of separated subtrees as a principle by which to estimate the posterior probability of trees using conditional clade probability distributions rather than simple sample relative frequencies. I describe an algorithm for these calculations and software which implements these ideas. I show that these alternative calculations are very similar to simple sample relative frequencies for high probability trees but are substantially more accurate for relatively low probability trees. The method allows the posterior probability of unsampled trees to be calculated when these trees contain only clades that are in other sampled trees. Furthermore, the method can be used to estimate the total probability of the set of sampled trees which provides a measure of the thoroughness of a posterior sample.

  18. Statistics of adaptive optics speckles: From probability cloud to probability density function

    OpenAIRE

    Yaitskova, Natalia; Gladysz, Szymon

    2016-01-01

    The complex amplitude in the focal plane of adaptive optics system is modelled as an elliptical complex random variable. The geometrical properties of the probability density function of such variable relate directly to the statistics of the residual phase. Building solely on the twodimensional geometry, the expression for the probability density function of speckle intensity is derived.

  19. Blocked Randomization with Randomly Selected Block Sizes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jimmy Efird

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available When planning a randomized clinical trial, careful consideration must be given to how participants are selected for various arms of a study. Selection and accidental bias may occur when participants are not assigned to study groups with equal probability. A simple random allocation scheme is a process by which each participant has equal likelihood of being assigned to treatment versus referent groups. However, by chance an unequal number of individuals may be assigned to each arm of the study and thus decrease the power to detect statistically significant differences between groups. Block randomization is a commonly used technique in clinical trial design to reduce bias and achieve balance in the allocation of participants to treatment arms, especially when the sample size is small. This method increases the probability that each arm will contain an equal number of individuals by sequencing participant assignments by block. Yet still, the allocation process may be predictable, for example, when the investigator is not blind and the block size is fixed. This paper provides an overview of blocked randomization and illustrates how to avoid selection bias by using random block sizes.

  20. Blocked randomization with randomly selected block sizes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Efird, Jimmy

    2011-01-01

    When planning a randomized clinical trial, careful consideration must be given to how participants are selected for various arms of a study. Selection and accidental bias may occur when participants are not assigned to study groups with equal probability. A simple random allocation scheme is a process by which each participant has equal likelihood of being assigned to treatment versus referent groups. However, by chance an unequal number of individuals may be assigned to each arm of the study and thus decrease the power to detect statistically significant differences between groups. Block randomization is a commonly used technique in clinical trial design to reduce bias and achieve balance in the allocation of participants to treatment arms, especially when the sample size is small. This method increases the probability that each arm will contain an equal number of individuals by sequencing participant assignments by block. Yet still, the allocation process may be predictable, for example, when the investigator is not blind and the block size is fixed. This paper provides an overview of blocked randomization and illustrates how to avoid selection bias by using random block sizes.

  1. Probability Theory as Logic: Data Assimilation for Multiple Source Reconstruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yee, Eugene

    2012-03-01

    Probability theory as logic (or Bayesian probability theory) is a rational inferential methodology that provides a natural and logically consistent framework for source reconstruction. This methodology fully utilizes the information provided by a limited number of noisy concentration data obtained from a network of sensors and combines it in a consistent manner with the available prior knowledge (mathematical representation of relevant physical laws), hence providing a rigorous basis for the assimilation of this data into models of atmospheric dispersion for the purpose of contaminant source reconstruction. This paper addresses the application of this framework to the reconstruction of contaminant source distributions consisting of an unknown number of localized sources, using concentration measurements obtained from a sensor array. To this purpose, Bayesian probability theory is used to formulate the full joint posterior probability density function for the parameters of the unknown source distribution. A simulated annealing algorithm, applied in conjunction with a reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo technique, is used to draw random samples of source distribution models from the posterior probability density function. The methodology is validated against a real (full-scale) atmospheric dispersion experiment involving a multiple point source release.

  2. 7th High Dimensional Probability Meeting

    CERN Document Server

    Mason, David; Reynaud-Bouret, Patricia; Rosinski, Jan

    2016-01-01

    This volume collects selected papers from the 7th High Dimensional Probability meeting held at the Institut d'Études Scientifiques de Cargèse (IESC) in Corsica, France. High Dimensional Probability (HDP) is an area of mathematics that includes the study of probability distributions and limit theorems in infinite-dimensional spaces such as Hilbert spaces and Banach spaces. The most remarkable feature of this area is that it has resulted in the creation of powerful new tools and perspectives, whose range of application has led to interactions with other subfields of mathematics, statistics, and computer science. These include random matrices, nonparametric statistics, empirical processes, statistical learning theory, concentration of measure phenomena, strong and weak approximations, functional estimation, combinatorial optimization, and random graphs. The contributions in this volume show that HDP theory continues to thrive and develop new tools, methods, techniques and perspectives to analyze random phenome...

  3. Distribution of peak expiratory flow variability by age, gender and smoking habits in a random population sample aged 20-70 yrs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boezen, H M; Schouten, J. P.; Postma, D S; Rijcken, B

    1994-01-01

    Peak expiratory flow (PEF) variability can be considered as an index of bronchial lability. Population studies on PEF variability are few. The purpose of the current paper is to describe the distribution of PEF variability in a random population sample of adults with a wide age range (20-70 yrs),

  4. From Planning to Implementation: An Examination of Changes in the Research Design, Sample Size, and Precision of Group Randomized Trials Launched by the Institute of Education Sciences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spybrook, Jessaca; Puente, Anne Cullen; Lininger, Monica

    2013-01-01

    This article examines changes in the research design, sample size, and precision between the planning phase and implementation phase of group randomized trials (GRTs) funded by the Institute of Education Sciences. Thirty-eight GRTs funded between 2002 and 2006 were examined. Three studies revealed changes in the experimental design. Ten studies…

  5. Evaluating effectiveness of down-sampling for stratified designs and unbalanced prevalence in Random Forest models of tree species distributions in Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elizabeth A. Freeman; Gretchen G. Moisen; Tracy S. Frescino

    2012-01-01

    Random Forests is frequently used to model species distributions over large geographic areas. Complications arise when data used to train the models have been collected in stratified designs that involve different sampling intensity per stratum. The modeling process is further complicated if some of the target species are relatively rare on the landscape leading to an...

  6. The perception of probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallistel, C R; Krishan, Monika; Liu, Ye; Miller, Reilly; Latham, Peter E

    2014-01-01

    We present a computational model to explain the results from experiments in which subjects estimate the hidden probability parameter of a stepwise nonstationary Bernoulli process outcome by outcome. The model captures the following results qualitatively and quantitatively, with only 2 free parameters: (a) Subjects do not update their estimate after each outcome; they step from one estimate to another at irregular intervals. (b) The joint distribution of step widths and heights cannot be explained on the assumption that a threshold amount of change must be exceeded in order for them to indicate a change in their perception. (c) The mapping of observed probability to the median perceived probability is the identity function over the full range of probabilities. (d) Precision (how close estimates are to the best possible estimate) is good and constant over the full range. (e) Subjects quickly detect substantial changes in the hidden probability parameter. (f) The perceived probability sometimes changes dramatically from one observation to the next. (g) Subjects sometimes have second thoughts about a previous change perception, after observing further outcomes. (h) The frequency with which they perceive changes moves in the direction of the true frequency over sessions. (Explaining this finding requires 2 additional parametric assumptions.) The model treats the perception of the current probability as a by-product of the construction of a compact encoding of the experienced sequence in terms of its change points. It illustrates the why and the how of intermittent Bayesian belief updating and retrospective revision in simple perception. It suggests a reinterpretation of findings in the recent literature on the neurobiology of decision making. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

  7. Experimental Probability in Elementary School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew, Lane

    2009-01-01

    Concepts in probability can be more readily understood if students are first exposed to probability via experiment. Performing probability experiments encourages students to develop understandings of probability grounded in real events, as opposed to merely computing answers based on formulae.

  8. Changes in prevalence of, and risk factors for, lameness in random samples of English sheep flocks: 2004-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, Joanne R; Kaler, Jasmeet; Ferguson, Eamonn; KilBride, Amy L; Green, Laura E

    2015-11-01

    The aims of this study were to update the prevalence of lameness in sheep in England and identify novel risk factors. A total of 1260 sheep farmers responded to a postal survey. The survey captured detailed information on the period prevalence of lameness from May 2012-April 2013 and the prevalence and farmer naming of lesions attributable to interdigital dermatitis (ID), severe footrot (SFR), contagious ovine digital dermatitis (CODD) and shelly hoof (SH), management and treatment of lameness, and farm and flock details. The global mean period prevalence of lameness fell between 2004 and 2013 from 10.6% to 4.9% and the geometric mean period prevalence of lameness fell from 5.4% (95% CL: 4.7%-6.0%) to 3.5% (95% CI: 3.3%-3.7%). In 2013, more farmers were using vaccination and antibiotic treatment for ID and SFR and fewer farmers were using foot trimming as a routine or therapeutic treatment than in 2004. Two over-dispersed Poisson regression models were developed with the outcome the period prevalence of lameness, one investigated associations with farmer estimates of prevalence of the four foot lesions and one investigated associations with management practices to control and treat lameness and footrot. A prevalence of ID>10%, SFR>2.5% and CODD>2.5% were associated with a higher prevalence of lameness compared with those lesions being absent, however, the prevalence of SH was not associated with a change in risk of lameness. A key novel management risk associated with higher prevalence of lameness was the rate of feet bleeding/100 ewes trimmed/year. In addition, vaccination of ewes once per year and selecting breeding replacements from never-lame ewes were associated with a decreased risk of lameness. Other factors associated with a lower risk of lameness for the first time in a random sample of farmers and a full risk model were: recognising lameness in sheep at locomotion score 1 compared with higher scores, treatment of the first lame sheep in a group compared

  9. Nutritional status and falls in community-dwelling older people: a longitudinal study of a population-based random sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chien, Ming-Hung; Guo, How-Ran

    2014-01-01

    Falls are common in older people and may lead to functional decline, disability, and death. Many risk factors have been identified, but studies evaluating effects of nutritional status are limited. To determine whether nutritional status is a predictor of falls in older people living in the community, we analyzed data collected through the Survey of Health and Living Status of the Elderly in Taiwan (SHLSET). SHLSET include a series of interview surveys conducted by the government on a random sample of people living in community dwellings in the nation. We included participants who received nutritional status assessment using the Mini Nutritional Assessment Taiwan Version 2 (MNA-T2) in the 1999 survey when they were 53 years or older and followed up on the cumulative incidence of falls in the one-year period before the interview in the 2003 survey. At the beginning of follow-up, the 4440 participants had a mean age of 69.5 (standard deviation= 9.1) years, and 467 participants were "not well-nourished," which was defined as having an MNA-T2 score of 23 or less. In the one-year study period, 659 participants reported having at least one fall. After adjusting for other risk factors, we found the associated odds ratio for falls was 1.73 (95% confidence interval, 1.23, 2.42) for "not well-nourished," 1.57 (1.30, 1.90) for female gender, 1.03 (1.02, 1.04) for one-year older, 1.55 (1.22, 1.98) for history of falls, 1.34 (1.05, 1.72) for hospital stay during the past 12 months, 1.66 (1.07, 2.58) for difficulties in activities of daily living, and 1.53 (1.23, 1.91) for difficulties in instrumental activities of daily living. Nutritional status is an independent predictor of falls in older people living in the community. Further studies are warranted to identify nutritional interventions that can help prevent falls in the elderly.

  10. Improving Ranking Using Quantum Probability

    OpenAIRE

    Melucci, Massimo

    2011-01-01

    The paper shows that ranking information units by quantum probability differs from ranking them by classical probability provided the same data used for parameter estimation. As probability of detection (also known as recall or power) and probability of false alarm (also known as fallout or size) measure the quality of ranking, we point out and show that ranking by quantum probability yields higher probability of detection than ranking by classical probability provided a given probability of ...

  11. Collision Probability Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Friis; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup

    1998-01-01

    It is the purpose of this report to apply a rational model for prediction of ship-ship collision probabilities as function of the ship and the crew characteristics and the navigational environment for MS Dextra sailing on a route between Cadiz and the Canary Islands.The most important ship and crew...... characteristics are: ship speed, ship manoeuvrability, the layout of the navigational bridge, the radar system, the number and the training of navigators, the presence of a look out etc. The main parameters affecting the navigational environment are ship traffic density, probability distributions of wind speeds...... probability, i.e. a study of the navigator's role in resolving critical situations, a causation factor is derived as a second step.The report documents the first step in a probabilistic collision damage analysis. Future work will inlcude calculation of energy released for crushing of structures giving...

  12. Classic Problems of Probability

    CERN Document Server

    Gorroochurn, Prakash

    2012-01-01

    "A great book, one that I will certainly add to my personal library."—Paul J. Nahin, Professor Emeritus of Electrical Engineering, University of New Hampshire Classic Problems of Probability presents a lively account of the most intriguing aspects of statistics. The book features a large collection of more than thirty classic probability problems which have been carefully selected for their interesting history, the way they have shaped the field, and their counterintuitive nature. From Cardano's 1564 Games of Chance to Jacob Bernoulli's 1713 Golden Theorem to Parrondo's 1996 Perplexin

  13. Introduction to imprecise probabilities

    CERN Document Server

    Augustin, Thomas; de Cooman, Gert; Troffaes, Matthias C M

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, the theory has become widely accepted and has been further developed, but a detailed introduction is needed in order to make the material available and accessible to a wide audience. This will be the first book providing such an introduction, covering core theory and recent developments which can be applied to many application areas. All authors of individual chapters are leading researchers on the specific topics, assuring high quality and up-to-date contents. An Introduction to Imprecise Probabilities provides a comprehensive introduction to imprecise probabilities, includin

  14. Integration, measure and probability

    CERN Document Server

    Pitt, H R

    2012-01-01

    Introductory treatment develops the theory of integration in a general context, making it applicable to other branches of analysis. More specialized topics include convergence theorems and random sequences and functions. 1963 edition.

  15. Epistemology and Probability

    CERN Document Server

    Plotnitsky, Arkady

    2010-01-01

    Offers an exploration of the relationships between epistemology and probability in the work of Niels Bohr, Werner Heisenberg, and Erwin Schrodinger; in quantum mechanics; and in modern physics. This book considers the implications of these relationships and of quantum theory for our understanding of the nature of thinking and knowledge in general

  16. Huygens' foundations of probability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Freudenthal, Hans

    It is generally accepted that Huygens based probability on expectation. The term “expectation,” however, stems from Van Schooten's Latin translation of Huygens' treatise. A literal translation of Huygens' Dutch text shows more clearly what Huygens actually meant and how he proceeded.

  17. Counterexamples in probability

    CERN Document Server

    Stoyanov, Jordan M

    2013-01-01

    While most mathematical examples illustrate the truth of a statement, counterexamples demonstrate a statement's falsity. Enjoyable topics of study, counterexamples are valuable tools for teaching and learning. The definitive book on the subject in regards to probability, this third edition features the author's revisions and corrections plus a substantial new appendix.

  18. Probably Almost Bayes Decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Anoulova, S.; Fischer, Paul; Poelt, S.

    1996-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate the problem of classifying objects which are given by feature vectors with Boolean entries. Our aim is to "(efficiently) learn probably almost optimal classifications" from examples. A classical approach in pattern recognition uses empirical estimations of the Bayesian...

  19. Univariate Probability Distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leemis, Lawrence M.; Luckett, Daniel J.; Powell, Austin G.; Vermeer, Peter E.

    2012-01-01

    We describe a web-based interactive graphic that can be used as a resource in introductory classes in mathematical statistics. This interactive graphic presents 76 common univariate distributions and gives details on (a) various features of the distribution such as the functional form of the probability density function and cumulative distribution…

  20. The Theory of Probability

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 3; Issue 4. The Theory of Probability. Andrei Nikolaevich Kolmogorov. Classics Volume 3 Issue 4 April 1998 pp 103-112. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link: http://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/reso/003/04/0103-0112. Author Affiliations.

  1. Probability Theory Without Tears!

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 1; Issue 2. Probability Theory Without Tears! S Ramasubramanian. Book Review Volume 1 Issue 2 February 1996 pp 115-116. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link: http://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/reso/001/02/0115-0116 ...

  2. probably mostly white

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Willem Scholtz

    internet – the (probably mostly white) public's interest in the so-called Border War is ostensibly at an all-time high. By far most of the publications are written by ex- ... understanding of this very important episode in the history of Southern Africa. It was, therefore, with some anticipation that one waited for this book, which.

  3. the theory of probability

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    important practical applications in statistical quality control. Of a similar kind are the laws of probability for the scattering of missiles, which are basic in the ..... deviations for different ranges for each type of gun and of shell are found empirically in firing practice on an artillery range. But the subsequent solution of all possible ...

  4. Weighted polynomial models and weighted sampling schemes for finite population

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Sean X.

    1998-01-01

    This paper outlines a theoretical framework for finite population models with unequal sample probabilities, along with sampling schemes for drawing random samples from these models. We first present four exact weighted sampling schemes that can be used for any finite population model to satisfy such requirements as ordered/ unordered samples, with/without replacement, and fixed/nonfixed sample size. We then introduce a new class of finite population models called weighted po...

  5. On Probability Domains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frič, Roman; Papčo, Martin

    2010-12-01

    Motivated by IF-probability theory (intuitionistic fuzzy), we study n-component probability domains in which each event represents a body of competing components and the range of a state represents a simplex S n of n-tuples of possible rewards-the sum of the rewards is a number from [0,1]. For n=1 we get fuzzy events, for example a bold algebra, and the corresponding fuzzy probability theory can be developed within the category ID of D-posets (equivalently effect algebras) of fuzzy sets and sequentially continuous D-homomorphisms. For n=2 we get IF-events, i.e., pairs ( μ, ν) of fuzzy sets μ, ν∈[0,1] X such that μ( x)+ ν( x)≤1 for all x∈ X, but we order our pairs (events) coordinatewise. Hence the structure of IF-events (where ( μ 1, ν 1)≤( μ 2, ν 2) whenever μ 1≤ μ 2 and ν 2≤ ν 1) is different and, consequently, the resulting IF-probability theory models a different principle. The category ID is cogenerated by I=[0,1] (objects of ID are subobjects of powers I X ), has nice properties and basic probabilistic notions and constructions are categorical. For example, states are morphisms. We introduce the category S n D cogenerated by Sn=\\{(x1,x2,ldots ,xn)in In;sum_{i=1}nxi≤ 1\\} carrying the coordinatewise partial order, difference, and sequential convergence and we show how basic probability notions can be defined within S n D.

  6. Negative probability in the framework of combined probability

    OpenAIRE

    Burgin, Mark

    2013-01-01

    Negative probability has found diverse applications in theoretical physics. Thus, construction of sound and rigorous mathematical foundations for negative probability is important for physics. There are different axiomatizations of conventional probability. So, it is natural that negative probability also has different axiomatic frameworks. In the previous publications (Burgin, 2009; 2010), negative probability was mathematically formalized and rigorously interpreted in the context of extende...

  7. Stages of change of the readiness to quit smoking among a random sample of minority Arab male smokers in Israel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daoud, Nihaya; Hayek, Samah; Sheikh Muhammad, Ahmad; Abu-Saad, Kathleen; Osman, Amira; Thrasher, James F; Kalter-Leibovici, Ofra

    2015-07-16

    Despite advanced smoking prevention and cessation policies in many countries, the prevalence of cigarette smoking among indigenous and some ethnic minorities continues to be high. This study examined the stages of change (SOC) of the readiness to quit smoking among Arab men in Israel shortly after new regulations of free-of-charge smoking cessation workshops and subsidized medications were introduced through primary health care clinics. We conducted a countrywide study in Israel between 2012-2013. Participants, 735 current smokers; 18-64 years old; were recruited from a stratified random sample and interviewed face-to-face using a structured questionnaire in Arabic. We used ordered regression to examine the contribution of socio-economic position (SEP), health status, psychosocial attributes, smoking-related factors, and physician advice to the SOC of the readiness to quit smoking (pre-contemplation, contemplation and preparation). Of the current smokers, 61.8% were at the pre-contemplation stage, 23.8% were at the contemplation stage, and only 14.4% were at the preparation stage. In the multinomial analysis, factors significantly (P stage compared to pre-contemplation stage included [odds ratio (OR), 95% confidence interval (CI)]: chronic morbidity [0.52, (0.31-0.88)], social support [1.35, (1.07-1.70)], duration of smoking for 11-21 years [1.94, (1.07-3.50)], three or more previous attempts to quit [2.27, (1.26-4.01)], knowledge about smoking hazards [1.75, (1.29-2.35)], positive attitudes toward smoking prevention [1.44, (1.14-1.82)], and physician advice to quit smoking [1.88, (1.19-2.97)]. The factors significantly (P stage compared to pre-contemplation stage were [OR, (95 % CI)]: chronic morbidity [0.36, (0.20-0.67)], anxiety [1.07, (1.01-1.13)], social support [1.34, (1.01-1.78)], duration of smoking 5 years or less [2.93, (1.14-7.52)], three or more previous attempts to quit [3.16, (1.60-6.26)], knowledge about smoking hazards [1.57, (1.10-2.21)], and

  8. The Accuracy of Pass/Fail Decisions in Random and Difficulty-Balanced Domain-Sampling Tests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schnipke, Deborah L.

    A common practice in some certification fields (e.g., information technology) is to draw items from an item pool randomly and apply a common passing score, regardless of the items administered. Because these tests are commonly used, it is important to determine how accurate the pass/fail decisions are for such tests and whether fairly small,…

  9. Experience Matters: Information Acquisition Optimizes Probability Gain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Jonathan D.; McKenzie, Craig R.M.; Cottrell, Garrison W.; Sejnowski, Terrence J.

    2010-01-01

    Deciding which piece of information to acquire or attend to is fundamental to perception, categorization, medical diagnosis, and scientific inference. Four statistical theories of the value of information—information gain, Kullback-Liebler distance, probability gain (error minimization), and impact—are equally consistent with extant data on human information acquisition. Three experiments, designed via computer optimization to be maximally informative, tested which of these theories best describes human information search. Experiment 1, which used natural sampling and experience-based learning to convey environmental probabilities, found that probability gain explained subjects’ information search better than the other statistical theories or the probability-of-certainty heuristic. Experiments 1 and 2 found that subjects behaved differently when the standard method of verbally presented summary statistics (rather than experience-based learning) was used to convey environmental probabilities. Experiment 3 found that subjects’ preference for probability gain is robust, suggesting that the other models contribute little to subjects’ search behavior. PMID:20525915

  10. Experience matters: information acquisition optimizes probability gain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Jonathan D; McKenzie, Craig R M; Cottrell, Garrison W; Sejnowski, Terrence J

    2010-07-01

    Deciding which piece of information to acquire or attend to is fundamental to perception, categorization, medical diagnosis, and scientific inference. Four statistical theories of the value of information-information gain, Kullback-Liebler distance, probability gain (error minimization), and impact-are equally consistent with extant data on human information acquisition. Three experiments, designed via computer optimization to be maximally informative, tested which of these theories best describes human information search. Experiment 1, which used natural sampling and experience-based learning to convey environmental probabilities, found that probability gain explained subjects' information search better than the other statistical theories or the probability-of-certainty heuristic. Experiments 1 and 2 found that subjects behaved differently when the standard method of verbally presented summary statistics (rather than experience-based learning) was used to convey environmental probabilities. Experiment 3 found that subjects' preference for probability gain is robust, suggesting that the other models contribute little to subjects' search behavior.

  11. Probability learning and Piagetian probability conceptions in children 5 to 12 years old.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreitler, S; Zigler, E; Kreitler, H

    1989-11-01

    This study focused on the relations between performance on a three-choice probability-learning task and conceptions of probability as outlined by Piaget concerning mixture, normal distribution, random selection, odds estimation, and permutations. The probability-learning task and four Piagetian tasks were administered randomly to 100 male and 100 female, middle SES, average IQ children in three age groups (5 to 6, 8 to 9, and 11 to 12 years old) from different schools. Half the children were from Middle Eastern backgrounds, and half were from European or American backgrounds. As predicted, developmental level of probability thinking was related to performance on the probability-learning task. The more advanced the child's probability thinking, the higher his or her level of maximization and hypothesis formulation and testing and the lower his or her level of systematically patterned responses. The results suggest that the probability-learning and Piagetian tasks assess similar cognitive skills and that performance on the probability-learning task reflects a variety of probability concepts.

  12. Paradoxes in probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    Eckhardt, William

    2013-01-01

    Paradoxes provide a vehicle for exposing misinterpretations and misapplications of accepted principles. This book discusses seven paradoxes surrounding probability theory.  Some remain the focus of controversy; others have allegedly been solved, however the accepted solutions are demonstrably incorrect. Each paradox is shown to rest on one or more fallacies.  Instead of the esoteric, idiosyncratic, and untested methods that have been brought to bear on these problems, the book invokes uncontroversial probability principles, acceptable both to frequentists and subjectivists. The philosophical disputation inspired by these paradoxes is shown to be misguided and unnecessary; for instance, startling claims concerning human destiny and the nature of reality are directly related to fallacious reasoning in a betting paradox, and a problem analyzed in philosophy journals is resolved by means of a computer program.

  13. Probability, Nondeterminism and Concurrency

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Varacca, Daniele

    reveals the computational intuition lying behind the mathematics. In the second part of the thesis we provide an operational reading of continuous valuations on certain domains (the distributive concrete domains of Kahn and Plotkin) through the model of probabilistic event structures. Event structures......Nondeterminism is modelled in domain theory by the notion of a powerdomain, while probability is modelled by that of the probabilistic powerdomain. Some problems arise when we want to combine them in order to model computation in which both nondeterminism and probability are present. In particular...... there is no categorical distributive law between them. We introduce the powerdomain of indexed valuations which modifies the usual probabilistic powerdomain to take more detailed account of where probabilistic choices are made. We show the existence of a distributive law between the powerdomain of indexed valuations...

  14. Waste Package Misload Probability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    J.K. Knudsen

    2001-11-20

    The objective of this calculation is to calculate the probability of occurrence for fuel assembly (FA) misloads (i.e., Fa placed in the wrong location) and FA damage during FA movements. The scope of this calculation is provided by the information obtained from the Framatome ANP 2001a report. The first step in this calculation is to categorize each fuel-handling events that occurred at nuclear power plants. The different categories are based on FAs being damaged or misloaded. The next step is to determine the total number of FAs involved in the event. Using the information, a probability of occurrence will be calculated for FA misload and FA damage events. This calculation is an expansion of preliminary work performed by Framatome ANP 2001a.

  15. Measurement uncertainty and probability

    CERN Document Server

    Willink, Robin

    2013-01-01

    A measurement result is incomplete without a statement of its 'uncertainty' or 'margin of error'. But what does this statement actually tell us? By examining the practical meaning of probability, this book discusses what is meant by a '95 percent interval of measurement uncertainty', and how such an interval can be calculated. The book argues that the concept of an unknown 'target value' is essential if probability is to be used as a tool for evaluating measurement uncertainty. It uses statistical concepts, such as a conditional confidence interval, to present 'extended' classical methods for evaluating measurement uncertainty. The use of the Monte Carlo principle for the simulation of experiments is described. Useful for researchers and graduate students, the book also discusses other philosophies relating to the evaluation of measurement uncertainty. It employs clear notation and language to avoid the confusion that exists in this controversial field of science.

  16. Contributions to quantum probability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fritz, Tobias

    2010-06-25

    Chapter 1: On the existence of quantum representations for two dichotomic measurements. Under which conditions do outcome probabilities of measurements possess a quantum-mechanical model? This kind of problem is solved here for the case of two dichotomic von Neumann measurements which can be applied repeatedly to a quantum system with trivial dynamics. The solution uses methods from the theory of operator algebras and the theory of moment problems. The ensuing conditions reveal surprisingly simple relations between certain quantum-mechanical probabilities. It also shown that generally, none of these relations holds in general probabilistic models. This result might facilitate further experimental discrimination between quantum mechanics and other general probabilistic theories. Chapter 2: Possibilistic Physics. I try to outline a framework for fundamental physics where the concept of probability gets replaced by the concept of possibility. Whereas a probabilistic theory assigns a state-dependent probability value to each outcome of each measurement, a possibilistic theory merely assigns one of the state-dependent labels ''possible to occur'' or ''impossible to occur'' to each outcome of each measurement. It is argued that Spekkens' combinatorial toy theory of quantum mechanics is inconsistent in a probabilistic framework, but can be regarded as possibilistic. Then, I introduce the concept of possibilistic local hidden variable models and derive a class of possibilistic Bell inequalities which are violated for the possibilistic Popescu-Rohrlich boxes. The chapter ends with a philosophical discussion on possibilistic vs. probabilistic. It can be argued that, due to better falsifiability properties, a possibilistic theory has higher predictive power than a probabilistic one. Chapter 3: The quantum region for von Neumann measurements with postselection. It is determined under which conditions a probability distribution on a

  17. Probability theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Hsu, Elton P

    1999-01-01

    This volume, with contributions by leading experts in the field, is a collection of lecture notes of the six minicourses given at the IAS/Park City Summer Mathematics Institute. It introduces advanced graduates and researchers in probability theory to several of the currently active research areas in the field. Each course is self-contained with references and contains basic materials and recent results. Topics include interacting particle systems, percolation theory, analysis on path and loop spaces, and mathematical finance. The volume gives a balanced overview of the current status of probability theory. An extensive bibliography for further study and research is included. This unique collection presents several important areas of current research and a valuable survey reflecting the diversity of the field.

  18. Superpositions of probability distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jizba, Petr; Kleinert, Hagen

    2008-09-01

    Probability distributions which can be obtained from superpositions of Gaussian distributions of different variances v=sigma;{2} play a favored role in quantum theory and financial markets. Such superpositions need not necessarily obey the Chapman-Kolmogorov semigroup relation for Markovian processes because they may introduce memory effects. We derive the general form of the smearing distributions in v which do not destroy the semigroup property. The smearing technique has two immediate applications. It permits simplifying the system of Kramers-Moyal equations for smeared and unsmeared conditional probabilities, and can be conveniently implemented in the path integral calculus. In many cases, the superposition of path integrals can be evaluated much easier than the initial path integral. Three simple examples are presented, and it is shown how the technique is extended to quantum mechanics.

  19. Concurrency meets probability: theory and practice (abstract)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Katoen, Joost P.

    Treating random phenomena in concurrency theory has a long tradition. Petri nets [18, 10] and process algebras [14] have been extended with probabilities. The same applies to behavioural semantics such as strong and weak (bi)simulation [1], and testing pre-orders [5]. Beautiful connections between

  20. Structural Minimax Probability Machine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Bin; Sun, Xingming; Sheng, Victor S

    2017-07-01

    Minimax probability machine (MPM) is an interesting discriminative classifier based on generative prior knowledge. It can directly estimate the probabilistic accuracy bound by minimizing the maximum probability of misclassification. The structural information of data is an effective way to represent prior knowledge, and has been found to be vital for designing classifiers in real-world problems. However, MPM only considers the prior probability distribution of each class with a given mean and covariance matrix, which does not efficiently exploit the structural information of data. In this paper, we use two finite mixture models to capture the structural information of the data from binary classification. For each subdistribution in a finite mixture model, only its mean and covariance matrix are assumed to be known. Based on the finite mixture models, we propose a structural MPM (SMPM). SMPM can be solved effectively by a sequence of the second-order cone programming problems. Moreover, we extend a linear model of SMPM to a nonlinear model by exploiting kernelization techniques. We also show that the SMPM can be interpreted as a large margin classifier and can be transformed to support vector machine and maxi-min margin machine under certain special conditions. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world data sets demonstrate the effectiveness of SMPM.