WorldWideScience

Sample records for random probability measures

  1. A probability measure for random surfaces of arbitrary genus and bosonic strings in 4 dimensions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albeverio, S.; Hoeegh-Krohn, R.; Paycha, S.; Scarlatti, S.

    1989-01-01

    We define a probability measure describing random surfaces in R D , 3≤D≤13, parametrized by compact Riemann surfaces of arbitrary genus. The measure involves the path space measure for scalar fields with exponential interaction in 2 space time dimensions. We show that it gives a mathematical realization of Polyakov's heuristic measure for bosonic strings. (orig.)

  2. Free probability and random matrices

    CERN Document Server

    Mingo, James A

    2017-01-01

    This volume opens the world of free probability to a wide variety of readers. From its roots in the theory of operator algebras, free probability has intertwined with non-crossing partitions, random matrices, applications in wireless communications, representation theory of large groups, quantum groups, the invariant subspace problem, large deviations, subfactors, and beyond. This book puts a special emphasis on the relation of free probability to random matrices, but also touches upon the operator algebraic, combinatorial, and analytic aspects of the theory. The book serves as a combination textbook/research monograph, with self-contained chapters, exercises scattered throughout the text, and coverage of important ongoing progress of the theory. It will appeal to graduate students and all mathematicians interested in random matrices and free probability from the point of view of operator algebras, combinatorics, analytic functions, or applications in engineering and statistical physics.

  3. Probability and Measure

    CERN Document Server

    Billingsley, Patrick

    2012-01-01

    Praise for the Third Edition "It is, as far as I'm concerned, among the best books in math ever written....if you are a mathematician and want to have the top reference in probability, this is it." (Amazon.com, January 2006) A complete and comprehensive classic in probability and measure theory Probability and Measure, Anniversary Edition by Patrick Billingsley celebrates the achievements and advancements that have made this book a classic in its field for the past 35 years. Now re-issued in a new style and format, but with the reliable content that the third edition was revered for, this

  4. Measurement uncertainty and probability

    CERN Document Server

    Willink, Robin

    2013-01-01

    A measurement result is incomplete without a statement of its 'uncertainty' or 'margin of error'. But what does this statement actually tell us? By examining the practical meaning of probability, this book discusses what is meant by a '95 percent interval of measurement uncertainty', and how such an interval can be calculated. The book argues that the concept of an unknown 'target value' is essential if probability is to be used as a tool for evaluating measurement uncertainty. It uses statistical concepts, such as a conditional confidence interval, to present 'extended' classical methods for evaluating measurement uncertainty. The use of the Monte Carlo principle for the simulation of experiments is described. Useful for researchers and graduate students, the book also discusses other philosophies relating to the evaluation of measurement uncertainty. It employs clear notation and language to avoid the confusion that exists in this controversial field of science.

  5. Quantum probability measures and tomographic probability densities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amosov, GG; Man'ko, [No Value

    2004-01-01

    Using a simple relation of the Dirac delta-function to generalized the theta-function, the relationship between the tomographic probability approach and the quantum probability measure approach with the description of quantum states is discussed. The quantum state tomogram expressed in terms of the

  6. Integration, measure and probability

    CERN Document Server

    Pitt, H R

    2012-01-01

    Introductory treatment develops the theory of integration in a general context, making it applicable to other branches of analysis. More specialized topics include convergence theorems and random sequences and functions. 1963 edition.

  7. Fundamentals of applied probability and random processes

    CERN Document Server

    Ibe, Oliver

    2014-01-01

    The long-awaited revision of Fundamentals of Applied Probability and Random Processes expands on the central components that made the first edition a classic. The title is based on the premise that engineers use probability as a modeling tool, and that probability can be applied to the solution of engineering problems. Engineers and students studying probability and random processes also need to analyze data, and thus need some knowledge of statistics. This book is designed to provide students with a thorough grounding in probability and stochastic processes, demonstrate their applicability t

  8. Probability of Failure in Random Vibration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    1988-01-01

    Close approximations to the first-passage probability of failure in random vibration can be obtained by integral equation methods. A simple relation exists between the first-passage probability density function and the distribution function for the time interval spent below a barrier before out......-crossing. An integral equation for the probability density function of the time interval is formulated, and adequate approximations for the kernel are suggested. The kernel approximation results in approximate solutions for the probability density function of the time interval and thus for the first-passage probability...

  9. Introduction to probability and measure

    CERN Document Server

    Parthasarathy, K R

    2005-01-01

    According to a remark attributed to Mark Kac 'Probability Theory is a measure theory with a soul'. This book with its choice of proofs, remarks, examples and exercises has been prepared taking both these aesthetic and practical aspects into account.

  10. Fundamentals of applied probability and random processes

    CERN Document Server

    Ibe, Oliver

    2005-01-01

    This book is based on the premise that engineers use probability as a modeling tool, and that probability can be applied to the solution of engineering problems. Engineers and students studying probability and random processes also need to analyze data, and thus need some knowledge of statistics. This book is designed to provide students with a thorough grounding in probability and stochastic processes, demonstrate their applicability to real-world problems, and introduce the basics of statistics. The book''s clear writing style and homework problems make it ideal for the classroom or for self-study.* Good and solid introduction to probability theory and stochastic processes * Logically organized; writing is presented in a clear manner * Choice of topics is comprehensive within the area of probability * Ample homework problems are organized into chapter sections

  11. Probability, random processes, and ergodic properties

    CERN Document Server

    Gray, Robert M

    1988-01-01

    This book has been written for several reasons, not all of which are academic. This material was for many years the first half of a book in progress on information and ergodic theory. The intent was and is to provide a reasonably self-contained advanced treatment of measure theory, prob ability theory, and the theory of discrete time random processes with an emphasis on general alphabets and on ergodic and stationary properties of random processes that might be neither ergodic nor stationary. The intended audience was mathematically inc1ined engineering graduate students and visiting scholars who had not had formal courses in measure theoretic probability . Much of the material is familiar stuff for mathematicians, but many of the topics and results have not previously appeared in books. The original project grew too large and the first part contained much that would likely bore mathematicians and dis courage them from the second part. Hence I finally followed the suggestion to separate the material and split...

  12. Path probabilities of continuous time random walks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eule, Stephan; Friedrich, Rudolf

    2014-01-01

    Employing the path integral formulation of a broad class of anomalous diffusion processes, we derive the exact relations for the path probability densities of these processes. In particular, we obtain a closed analytical solution for the path probability distribution of a Continuous Time Random Walk (CTRW) process. This solution is given in terms of its waiting time distribution and short time propagator of the corresponding random walk as a solution of a Dyson equation. Applying our analytical solution we derive generalized Feynman–Kac formulae. (paper)

  13. Probability

    CERN Document Server

    Shiryaev, A N

    1996-01-01

    This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, ergodic theory, weak convergence of probability measures, stationary stochastic processes, and the Kalman-Bucy filter Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for self-study This new edition contains substantial revisions and updated references The reader will find a deeper study of topics such as the distance between probability measures, metrization of weak convergence, and contiguity of probability measures Proofs for a number of some important results which were merely stated in the first edition have been added The author included new material on the probability of large deviations, and on the central limit theorem for sums of dependent random variables

  14. Random phenomena fundamentals of probability and statistics for engineers

    CERN Document Server

    Ogunnaike, Babatunde A

    2009-01-01

    PreludeApproach PhilosophyFour Basic PrinciplesI FoundationsTwo Motivating ExamplesYield Improvement in a Chemical ProcessQuality Assurance in a Glass Sheet Manufacturing ProcessOutline of a Systematic ApproachRandom Phenomena, Variability, and UncertaintyTwo Extreme Idealizations of Natural PhenomenaRandom Mass PhenomenaIntroducing ProbabilityThe Probabilistic FrameworkII ProbabilityFundamentals of Probability TheoryBuilding BlocksOperationsProbabilityConditional ProbabilityIndependenceRandom Variables and DistributionsDistributionsMathematical ExpectationCharacterizing DistributionsSpecial Derived Probability FunctionsMultidimensional Random VariablesDistributions of Several Random VariablesDistributional Characteristics of Jointly Distributed Random VariablesRandom Variable TransformationsSingle Variable TransformationsBivariate TransformationsGeneral Multivariate TransformationsApplication Case Studies I: ProbabilityMendel and HeredityWorld War II Warship Tactical Response Under AttackIII DistributionsIde...

  15. Probability Measures on Groups IX

    CERN Document Server

    1989-01-01

    The latest in this series of Oberwolfach conferences focussed on the interplay between structural probability theory and various other areas of pure and applied mathematics such as Tauberian theory, infinite-dimensional rotation groups, central limit theorems, harmonizable processes, and spherical data. Thus it was attended by mathematicians whose research interests range from number theory to quantum physics in conjunction with structural properties of probabilistic phenomena. This volume contains 5 survey articles submitted on special invitation and 25 original research papers.

  16. Probability, random variables, and random processes theory and signal processing applications

    CERN Document Server

    Shynk, John J

    2012-01-01

    Probability, Random Variables, and Random Processes is a comprehensive textbook on probability theory for engineers that provides a more rigorous mathematical framework than is usually encountered in undergraduate courses. It is intended for first-year graduate students who have some familiarity with probability and random variables, though not necessarily of random processes and systems that operate on random signals. It is also appropriate for advanced undergraduate students who have a strong mathematical background. The book has the following features: Several app

  17. People's Intuitions about Randomness and Probability: An Empirical Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lecoutre, Marie-Paule; Rovira, Katia; Lecoutre, Bruno; Poitevineau, Jacques

    2006-01-01

    What people mean by randomness should be taken into account when teaching statistical inference. This experiment explored subjective beliefs about randomness and probability through two successive tasks. Subjects were asked to categorize 16 familiar items: 8 real items from everyday life experiences, and 8 stochastic items involving a repeatable…

  18. Introduction to probability and measure theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Partasarati, K.

    1983-01-01

    Chapters of probability and measured theories are presented. The Borele images of spaces with the measure into each other and in separate metric spaces are studied. The Kolmogorov theorem on the continuation of probabilies is drawn from the theorem on the measure continuation to the projective limits of spaces with measure. The integration theory is plotted, measures on multiplications of spaces are studied. The theory of conventional mathematical expectations by projections in Hilbert space is presented. In conclusion, the theory of weak convergence of measures of elements of the theory of characteristic functions and the theory of invariant and quasi-invariant measures on groups and homogeneous spaces is given

  19. Age replacement policy based on imperfect repair with random probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, J.H.; Qu, Jian; Zuo, Ming J.

    2016-01-01

    In most of literatures of age replacement policy, failures before planned replacement age can be either minimally repaired or perfectly repaired based on the types of failures, cost for repairs and so on. In this paper, we propose age replacement policy based on imperfect repair with random probability. The proposed policy incorporates the case that such intermittent failure can be either minimally repaired or perfectly repaired with random probabilities. The mathematical formulas of the expected cost rate per unit time are derived for both the infinite-horizon case and the one-replacement-cycle case. For each case, we show that the optimal replacement age exists and is finite. - Highlights: • We propose a new age replacement policy with random probability of perfect repair. • We develop the expected cost per unit time. • We discuss the optimal age for replacement minimizing the expected cost rate.

  20. Measurement of the resonance escape probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anthony, J.P.; Bacher, P.; Lheureux, L.; Moreau, J.; Schmitt, A.P.

    1957-01-01

    The average cadmium ratio in natural uranium rods has been measured, using equal diameter natural uranium disks. These values correlated with independent measurements of the lattice buckling, enabled us to calculate values of the resonance escape probability for the G1 reactor with one or the other of two definitions. Measurements were performed on 26 mm and 32 mm rods, giving the following values for the resonance escape probability p: 0.8976 ± 0.005 and 0.912 ± 0.006 (d. 26 mm), 0.8627 ± 0.009 and 0.884 ± 0.01 (d. 32 mm). The influence of either definition on the lattice parameters is discussed, leading to values of the effective integral. Similar experiments have been performed with thorium rods. (author) [fr

  1. Non-equilibrium random matrix theory. Transition probabilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pedro, Francisco Gil [Univ. Autonoma de Madrid (Spain). Dept. de Fisica Teorica; Westphal, Alexander [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany). Gruppe Theorie

    2016-06-15

    In this letter we present an analytic method for calculating the transition probability between two random Gaussian matrices with given eigenvalue spectra in the context of Dyson Brownian motion. We show that in the Coulomb gas language, in large N limit, memory of the initial state is preserved in the form of a universal linear potential acting on the eigenvalues. We compute the likelihood of any given transition as a function of time, showing that as memory of the initial state is lost, transition probabilities converge to those of the static ensemble.

  2. Non-equilibrium random matrix theory. Transition probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pedro, Francisco Gil; Westphal, Alexander

    2016-06-01

    In this letter we present an analytic method for calculating the transition probability between two random Gaussian matrices with given eigenvalue spectra in the context of Dyson Brownian motion. We show that in the Coulomb gas language, in large N limit, memory of the initial state is preserved in the form of a universal linear potential acting on the eigenvalues. We compute the likelihood of any given transition as a function of time, showing that as memory of the initial state is lost, transition probabilities converge to those of the static ensemble.

  3. Generation, combination and extension of random set approximations to coherent lower and upper probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hall, Jim W.; Lawry, Jonathan

    2004-01-01

    Random set theory provides a convenient mechanism for representing uncertain knowledge including probabilistic and set-based information, and extending it through a function. This paper focuses upon the situation when the available information is in terms of coherent lower and upper probabilities, which are encountered, for example, when a probability distribution is specified by interval parameters. We propose an Iterative Rescaling Method (IRM) for constructing a random set with corresponding belief and plausibility measures that are a close outer approximation to the lower and upper probabilities. The approach is compared with the discrete approximation method of Williamson and Downs (sometimes referred to as the p-box), which generates a closer approximation to lower and upper cumulative probability distributions but in most cases a less accurate approximation to the lower and upper probabilities on the remainder of the power set. Four combination methods are compared by application to example random sets generated using the IRM

  4. The extinction probability in systems randomly varying in time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Imre Pázsit

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The extinction probability of a branching process (a neutron chain in a multiplying medium is calculated for a system randomly varying in time. The evolution of the first two moments of such a process was calculated previously by the authors in a system randomly shifting between two states of different multiplication properties. The same model is used here for the investigation of the extinction probability. It is seen that the determination of the extinction probability is significantly more complicated than that of the moments, and it can only be achieved by pure numerical methods. The numerical results indicate that for systems fluctuating between two subcritical or two supercritical states, the extinction probability behaves as expected, but for systems fluctuating between a supercritical and a subcritical state, there is a crucial and unexpected deviation from the predicted behaviour. The results bear some significance not only for neutron chains in a multiplying medium, but also for the evolution of biological populations in a time-varying environment.

  5. Measures, Probability and Holography in Cosmology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Daniel

    This dissertation compiles four research projects on predicting values for cosmological parameters and models of the universe on the broadest scale. The first examines the Causal Entropic Principle (CEP) in inhomogeneous cosmologies. The CEP aims to predict the unexpectedly small value of the cosmological constant Lambda using a weighting by entropy increase on causal diamonds. The original work assumed a purely isotropic and homogeneous cosmology. But even the level of inhomogeneity observed in our universe forces reconsideration of certain arguments about entropy production. In particular, we must consider an ensemble of causal diamonds associated with each background cosmology and we can no longer immediately discard entropy production in the far future of the universe. Depending on our choices for a probability measure and our treatment of black hole evaporation, the prediction for Lambda may be left intact or dramatically altered. The second related project extends the CEP to universes with curvature. We have found that curvature values larger than rho k = 40rhom are disfavored by more than $99.99% and a peak value at rhoLambda = 7.9 x 10-123 and rhok =4.3rho m for open universes. For universes that allow only positive curvature or both positive and negative curvature, we find a correlation between curvature and dark energy that leads to an extended region of preferred values. Our universe is found to be disfavored to an extent depending the priors on curvature. We also provide a comparison to previous anthropic constraints on open universes and discuss future directions for this work. The third project examines how cosmologists should formulate basic questions of probability. We argue using simple models that all successful practical uses of probabilities originate in quantum fluctuations in the microscopic physical world around us, often propagated to macroscopic scales. Thus we claim there is no physically verified fully classical theory of probability. We

  6. Analytic results for asymmetric random walk with exponential transition probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutkowicz-Krusin, D.; Procaccia, I.; Ross, J.

    1978-01-01

    We present here exact analytic results for a random walk on a one-dimensional lattice with asymmetric, exponentially distributed jump probabilities. We derive the generating functions of such a walk for a perfect lattice and for a lattice with absorbing boundaries. We obtain solutions for some interesting moment properties, such as mean first passage time, drift velocity, dispersion, and branching ratio for absorption. The symmetric exponential walk is solved as a special case. The scaling of the mean first passage time with the size of the system for the exponentially distributed walk is determined by the symmetry and is independent of the range

  7. Random measures, theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Kallenberg, Olav

    2017-01-01

    Offering the first comprehensive treatment of the theory of random measures, this book has a very broad scope, ranging from basic properties of Poisson and related processes to the modern theories of convergence, stationarity, Palm measures, conditioning, and compensation. The three large final chapters focus on applications within the areas of stochastic geometry, excursion theory, and branching processes. Although this theory plays a fundamental role in most areas of modern probability, much of it, including the most basic material, has previously been available only in scores of journal articles. The book is primarily directed towards researchers and advanced graduate students in stochastic processes and related areas.

  8. Inverse probability weighting for covariate adjustment in randomized studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Changyu; Li, Xiaochun; Li, Lingling

    2014-02-20

    Covariate adjustment in randomized clinical trials has the potential benefit of precision gain. It also has the potential pitfall of reduced objectivity as it opens the possibility of selecting a 'favorable' model that yields strong treatment benefit estimate. Although there is a large volume of statistical literature targeting on the first aspect, realistic solutions to enforce objective inference and improve precision are rare. As a typical randomized trial needs to accommodate many implementation issues beyond statistical considerations, maintaining the objectivity is at least as important as precision gain if not more, particularly from the perspective of the regulatory agencies. In this article, we propose a two-stage estimation procedure based on inverse probability weighting to achieve better precision without compromising objectivity. The procedure is designed in a way such that the covariate adjustment is performed before seeing the outcome, effectively reducing the possibility of selecting a 'favorable' model that yields a strong intervention effect. Both theoretical and numerical properties of the estimation procedure are presented. Application of the proposed method to a real data example is presented. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. Trending in Probability of Collision Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vallejo, J. J.; Hejduk, M. D.; Stamey, J. D.

    2015-01-01

    A simple model is proposed to predict the behavior of Probabilities of Collision (P(sub c)) for conjunction events. The model attempts to predict the location and magnitude of the peak P(sub c) value for an event by assuming the progression of P(sub c) values can be modeled to first order by a downward-opening parabola. To incorporate prior information from a large database of past conjunctions, the Bayes paradigm is utilized; and the operating characteristics of the model are established through a large simulation study. Though the model is simple, it performs well in predicting the temporal location of the peak (P(sub c)) and thus shows promise as a decision aid in operational conjunction assessment risk analysis.

  10. Interpretation of the results of statistical measurements. [search for basic probability model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olshevskiy, V. V.

    1973-01-01

    For random processes, the calculated probability characteristic, and the measured statistical estimate are used in a quality functional, which defines the difference between the two functions. Based on the assumption that the statistical measurement procedure is organized so that the parameters for a selected model are optimized, it is shown that the interpretation of experimental research is a search for a basic probability model.

  11. What Randomized Benchmarking Actually Measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Proctor, Timothy; Rudinger, Kenneth; Young, Kevin; Sarovar, Mohan; Blume-Kohout, Robin

    2017-01-01

    Randomized benchmarking (RB) is widely used to measure an error rate of a set of quantum gates, by performing random circuits that would do nothing if the gates were perfect. In the limit of no finite-sampling error, the exponential decay rate of the observable survival probabilities, versus circuit length, yields a single error metric r. For Clifford gates with arbitrary small errors described by process matrices, r was believed to reliably correspond to the mean, over all Clifford gates, of the average gate infidelity between the imperfect gates and their ideal counterparts. We show that this quantity is not a well-defined property of a physical gate set. It depends on the representations used for the imperfect and ideal gates, and the variant typically computed in the literature can differ from r by orders of magnitude. We present new theories of the RB decay that are accurate for all small errors describable by process matrices, and show that the RB decay curve is a simple exponential for all such errors. Here, these theories allow explicit computation of the error rate that RB measures (r), but as far as we can tell it does not correspond to the infidelity of a physically allowed (completely positive) representation of the imperfect gates.

  12. Probability on graphs random processes on graphs and lattices

    CERN Document Server

    Grimmett, Geoffrey

    2018-01-01

    This introduction to some of the principal models in the theory of disordered systems leads the reader through the basics, to the very edge of contemporary research, with the minimum of technical fuss. Topics covered include random walk, percolation, self-avoiding walk, interacting particle systems, uniform spanning tree, random graphs, as well as the Ising, Potts, and random-cluster models for ferromagnetism, and the Lorentz model for motion in a random medium. This new edition features accounts of major recent progress, including the exact value of the connective constant of the hexagonal lattice, and the critical point of the random-cluster model on the square lattice. The choice of topics is strongly motivated by modern applications, and focuses on areas that merit further research. Accessible to a wide audience of mathematicians and physicists, this book can be used as a graduate course text. Each chapter ends with a range of exercises.

  13. Multipartite nonlocality and random measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Rosier, Anna; Gruca, Jacek; Parisio, Fernando; Vértesi, Tamás; Laskowski, Wiesław

    2017-07-01

    We present an exhaustive numerical analysis of violations of local realism by families of multipartite quantum states. As an indicator of nonclassicality we employ the probability of violation for randomly sampled observables. Surprisingly, it rapidly increases with the number of parties or settings and even for relatively small values local realism is violated for almost all observables. We have observed this effect to be typical in the sense that it emerged for all investigated states including some with randomly drawn coefficients. We also present the probability of violation as a witness of genuine multipartite entanglement.

  14. Return probabilities for the reflected random walk on N_0

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Essifi, R.; Peigné, M.

    2015-01-01

    Let \\((Y_n)\\) be a sequence of i.i.d. \\(\\mathbb{Z }\\)-valued random variables with law \\(\\mu \\). The reflected random walk \\((X_n)\\) is defined recursively by \\(X_0=x \\in \\mathbb{N }_0, X_{n+1}=\\vert X_n+Y_{n+1}\\vert \\). Under mild hypotheses on the law \\(\\mu \\), it is proved that, for any \\( y \\in

  15. Using inferred probabilities to measure the accuracy of imprecise forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Lehner

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Research on forecasting is effectively limited to forecasts that are expressed with clarity; which is to say that the forecasted event must be sufficiently well-defined so that it can be clearly resolved whether or not the event occurred and forecasts certainties are expressed as quantitative probabilities. When forecasts are expressed with clarity, then quantitative measures (scoring rules, calibration, discrimination, etc. can be used to measure forecast accuracy, which in turn can be used to measure the comparative accuracy of different forecasting methods. Unfortunately most real world forecasts are not expressed clearly. This lack of clarity extends to both the description of the forecast event and to the use of vague language to express forecast certainty. It is thus difficult to assess the accuracy of most real world forecasts, and consequently the accuracy the methods used to generate real world forecasts. This paper addresses this deficiency by presenting an approach to measuring the accuracy of imprecise real world forecasts using the same quantitative metrics routinely used to measure the accuracy of well-defined forecasts. To demonstrate applicability, the Inferred Probability Method is applied to measure the accuracy of forecasts in fourteen documents examining complex political domains. Key words: inferred probability, imputed probability, judgment-based forecasting, forecast accuracy, imprecise forecasts, political forecasting, verbal probability, probability calibration.

  16. Probability measures, Lévy measures and analyticity in time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole Eiler; Hubalek, Friedrich

    2008-01-01

    We investigate the relation of the semigroup probability density of an infinite activity Lévy process to the corresponding Lévy density. For subordinators, we provide three methods to compute the former from the latter. The first method is based on approximating compound Poisson distributions...

  17. Probability Measures, Lévy Measures, and Analyticity in Time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole Eiler; Hubalek, Friedrich

    We investigate the relation of the semigroup probability density of an infinite activity Lévy process to the corresponding Lévy density. For subordinators we provide three methods to compute the former from the latter. The first method is based on approximating compound Poisson distributions...

  18. Quantum Zeno and anti-Zeno effects measured by transition probabilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Wenxian, E-mail: wxzhang@whu.edu.cn [School of Physics and Technology, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei 430072 (China); Department of Optical Science and Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433 (China); CEMS, RIKEN, Saitama 351-0198 (Japan); Kavli Institute for Theoretical Physics China, CAS, Beijing 100190 (China); Kofman, A.G. [CEMS, RIKEN, Saitama 351-0198 (Japan); Department of Physics, The University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1040 (United States); Zhuang, Jun [Department of Optical Science and Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433 (China); You, J.Q. [Beijing Computational Science Research Center, Beijing 10084 (China); Department of Physics, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433 (China); CEMS, RIKEN, Saitama 351-0198 (Japan); Nori, Franco [CEMS, RIKEN, Saitama 351-0198 (Japan); Department of Physics, The University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1040 (United States)

    2013-10-30

    Using numerical calculations, we compare the transition probabilities of many spins in random magnetic fields, subject to either frequent projective measurements, frequent phase modulations, or a mix of modulations and measurements. For various distribution functions, we find the transition probability under frequent modulations is suppressed most if the pulse delay is short and the evolution time is larger than a critical value. Furthermore, decay freezing occurs only under frequent modulations as the pulse delay approaches zero. In the large pulse-delay region, however, the transition probabilities under frequent modulations are highest among the three control methods.

  19. Measurement and probability a probabilistic theory of measurement with applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rossi, Giovanni Battista

    2014-01-01

    Measurement plays a fundamental role both in physical and behavioral sciences, as well as in engineering and technology: it is the link between abstract models and empirical reality and is a privileged method of gathering information from the real world. Is it possible to develop a single theory of measurement for the various domains of science and technology in which measurement is involved? This book takes the challenge by addressing the following main issues: What is the meaning of measurement? How do we measure? What can be measured? A theoretical framework that could truly be shared by scientists in different fields, ranging from physics and engineering to psychology is developed. The future in fact will require greater collaboration between science and technology and between different sciences. Measurement, which played a key role in the birth of modern science, can act as an essential interdisciplinary tool and language for this new scenario. A sound theoretical basis for addressing key problems in mea...

  20. Gap probability - Measurements and models of a pecan orchard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strahler, Alan H.; Li, Xiaowen; Moody, Aaron; Liu, YI

    1992-01-01

    Measurements and models are compared for gap probability in a pecan orchard. Measurements are based on panoramic photographs of 50* by 135 view angle made under the canopy looking upwards at regular positions along transects between orchard trees. The gap probability model is driven by geometric parameters at two levels-crown and leaf. Crown level parameters include the shape of the crown envelope and spacing of crowns; leaf level parameters include leaf size and shape, leaf area index, and leaf angle, all as functions of canopy position.

  1. Discrete probability models and methods probability on graphs and trees, Markov chains and random fields, entropy and coding

    CERN Document Server

    Brémaud, Pierre

    2017-01-01

    The emphasis in this book is placed on general models (Markov chains, random fields, random graphs), universal methods (the probabilistic method, the coupling method, the Stein-Chen method, martingale methods, the method of types) and versatile tools (Chernoff's bound, Hoeffding's inequality, Holley's inequality) whose domain of application extends far beyond the present text. Although the examples treated in the book relate to the possible applications, in the communication and computing sciences, in operations research and in physics, this book is in the first instance concerned with theory. The level of the book is that of a beginning graduate course. It is self-contained, the prerequisites consisting merely of basic calculus (series) and basic linear algebra (matrices). The reader is not assumed to be trained in probability since the first chapters give in considerable detail the background necessary to understand the rest of the book. .

  2. Learning Binomial Probability Concepts with Simulation, Random Numbers and a Spreadsheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rochowicz, John A., Jr.

    2005-01-01

    This paper introduces the reader to the concepts of binomial probability and simulation. A spreadsheet is used to illustrate these concepts. Random number generators are great technological tools for demonstrating the concepts of probability. Ideas of approximation, estimation, and mathematical usefulness provide numerous ways of learning…

  3. Predicting longitudinal trajectories of health probabilities with random-effects multinomial logit regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xian; Engel, Charles C

    2012-12-20

    Researchers often encounter longitudinal health data characterized with three or more ordinal or nominal categories. Random-effects multinomial logit models are generally applied to account for potential lack of independence inherent in such clustered data. When parameter estimates are used to describe longitudinal processes, however, random effects, both between and within individuals, need to be retransformed for correctly predicting outcome probabilities. This study attempts to go beyond existing work by developing a retransformation method that derives longitudinal growth trajectories of unbiased health probabilities. We estimated variances of the predicted probabilities by using the delta method. Additionally, we transformed the covariates' regression coefficients on the multinomial logit function, not substantively meaningful, to the conditional effects on the predicted probabilities. The empirical illustration uses the longitudinal data from the Asset and Health Dynamics among the Oldest Old. Our analysis compared three sets of the predicted probabilities of three health states at six time points, obtained from, respectively, the retransformation method, the best linear unbiased prediction, and the fixed-effects approach. The results demonstrate that neglect of retransforming random errors in the random-effects multinomial logit model results in severely biased longitudinal trajectories of health probabilities as well as overestimated effects of covariates on the probabilities. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. Evaluation of the probability distribution of intake from a single measurement on a personal air sampler

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birchall, A.; Muirhead, C.R.; James, A.C.

    1988-01-01

    An analytical expression has been derived for the k-sum distribution, formed by summing k random variables from a lognormal population. Poisson statistics are used with this distribution to derive distribution of intake when breathing an atmosphere with a constant particle number concentration. Bayesian inference is then used to calculate the posterior probability distribution of concentrations from a given measurement. This is combined with the above intake distribution to give the probability distribution of intake resulting from a single measurement of activity made by an ideal sampler. It is shown that the probability distribution of intake is very dependent on the prior distribution used in Bayes' theorem. The usual prior assumption, that all number concentrations are equally probable, leads to an imbalance in the posterior intake distribution. This can be resolved if a new prior proportional to w -2/3 is used, where w is the expected number of particles collected. (author)

  5. Evaluating probability measures related to subsurface flow and transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cawlfield, J.D.

    1991-01-01

    Probabilistic modeling approaches are being used increasingly in order to carry out quantified risk analysis and to evaluate the uncertainty existing in subsurface flow and transport analyses. The work presented in this paper addresses three issues: comparison of common probabilistic modeling techniques, recent results regarding the sensitivity of probability measures to likely changes in the uncertain variables for transport in porous media, and a discussion of some questions regarding fundamental modeling philosophy within a probabilistic framework. Recent results indicate that uncertainty regarding average flow velocity controls the probabilistic outcome, while uncertainty in the dispersivity and diffusion coefficient does not seem very important. Uncertainty of reaction terms is important only at early times in the transport process. Questions are posed regarding (1) the inclusion of macrodispersion in a probabilistic analysis, (2) statistics of flow velocity and (3) the notion of an ultimate probability measure for subsurface flow analyses

  6. Measurement of probability distributions for internal stresses in dislocated crystals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilkinson, Angus J.; Tarleton, Edmund; Vilalta-Clemente, Arantxa; Collins, David M. [Department of Materials, University of Oxford, Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PH (United Kingdom); Jiang, Jun; Britton, T. Benjamin [Department of Materials, Imperial College London, Royal School of Mines, Exhibition Road, London SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom)

    2014-11-03

    Here, we analyse residual stress distributions obtained from various crystal systems using high resolution electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) measurements. Histograms showing stress probability distributions exhibit tails extending to very high stress levels. We demonstrate that these extreme stress values are consistent with the functional form that should be expected for dislocated crystals. Analysis initially developed by Groma and co-workers for X-ray line profile analysis and based on the so-called “restricted second moment of the probability distribution” can be used to estimate the total dislocation density. The generality of the results are illustrated by application to three quite different systems, namely, face centred cubic Cu deformed in uniaxial tension, a body centred cubic steel deformed to larger strain by cold rolling, and hexagonal InAlN layers grown on misfitting sapphire and silicon carbide substrates.

  7. Dynamic probability of reinforcement for cooperation: Random game termination in the centipede game.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krockow, Eva M; Colman, Andrew M; Pulford, Briony D

    2018-03-01

    Experimental games have previously been used to study principles of human interaction. Many such games are characterized by iterated or repeated designs that model dynamic relationships, including reciprocal cooperation. To enable the study of infinite game repetitions and to avoid endgame effects of lower cooperation toward the final game round, investigators have introduced random termination rules. This study extends previous research that has focused narrowly on repeated Prisoner's Dilemma games by conducting a controlled experiment of two-player, random termination Centipede games involving probabilistic reinforcement and characterized by the longest decision sequences reported in the empirical literature to date (24 decision nodes). Specifically, we assessed mean exit points and cooperation rates, and compared the effects of four different termination rules: no random game termination, random game termination with constant termination probability, random game termination with increasing termination probability, and random game termination with decreasing termination probability. We found that although mean exit points were lower for games with shorter expected game lengths, the subjects' cooperativeness was significantly reduced only in the most extreme condition with decreasing computer termination probability and an expected game length of two decision nodes. © 2018 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

  8. Probability for human intake of an atom randomly released into ground, rivers, oceans and air

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cohen, B L

    1984-08-01

    Numerical estimates are developed for the probability of an atom randomly released in the top ground layers, in a river, or in the oceans to be ingested orally by a human, and for an atom emitted from an industrial source to be inhaled by a human. Estimates are obtained for both probability per year and for total eventual probability. Results vary considerably for different elements, but typical values for total probabilities are: ground, 3 X 10/sup -3/, oceans, 3 X 10/sup -4/; rivers, 1.7 x 10/sup -4/; and air, 5 X 10/sup -6/. Probabilities per year are typcially 1 X 10/sup -7/ for releases into the ground and 5 X 10/sup -8/ for releases into the oceans. These results indicate that for material with very long-lasting toxicity, it is important to include the pathways from the ground and from the oceans.

  9. Approximations to the Probability of Failure in Random Vibration by Integral Equation Methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    Close approximations to the first passage probability of failure in random vibration can be obtained by integral equation methods. A simple relation exists between the first passage probability density function and the distribution function for the time interval spent below a barrier before...... passage probability density. The results of the theory agree well with simulation results for narrow banded processes dominated by a single frequency, as well as for bimodal processes with 2 dominating frequencies in the structural response....... outcrossing. An integral equation for the probability density function of the time interval is formulated, and adequate approximations for the kernel are suggested. The kernel approximation results in approximate solutions for the probability density function of the time interval, and hence for the first...

  10. A short course on measure and probability theories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pebay, Philippe Pierre

    2004-02-01

    This brief Introduction to Measure Theory, and its applications to Probabilities, corresponds to the lecture notes of a seminar series given at Sandia National Laboratories in Livermore, during the spring of 2003. The goal of these seminars was to provide a minimal background to Computational Combustion scientists interested in using more advanced stochastic concepts and methods, e.g., in the context of uncertainty quantification. Indeed, most mechanical engineering curricula do not provide students with formal training in the field of probability, and even in less in measure theory. However, stochastic methods have been used more and more extensively in the past decade, and have provided more successful computational tools. Scientists at the Combustion Research Facility of Sandia National Laboratories have been using computational stochastic methods for years. Addressing more and more complex applications, and facing difficult problems that arose in applications showed the need for a better understanding of theoretical foundations. This is why the seminar series was launched, and these notes summarize most of the concepts which have been discussed. The goal of the seminars was to bring a group of mechanical engineers and computational combustion scientists to a full understanding of N. WIENER'S polynomial chaos theory. Therefore, these lectures notes are built along those lines, and are not intended to be exhaustive. In particular, the author welcomes any comments or criticisms.

  11. Classical randomness in quantum measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D'Ariano, Giacomo Mauro; Presti, Paoloplacido Lo; Perinotti, Paolo

    2005-01-01

    Similarly to quantum states, also quantum measurements can be 'mixed', corresponding to a random choice within an ensemble of measuring apparatuses. Such mixing is equivalent to a sort of hidden variable, which produces a noise of purely classical nature. It is then natural to ask which apparatuses are indecomposable, i.e. do not correspond to any random choice of apparatuses. This problem is interesting not only for foundations, but also for applications, since most optimization strategies give optimal apparatuses that are indecomposable. Mathematically the problem is posed describing each measuring apparatus by a positive operator-valued measure (POVM), which gives the statistics of the outcomes for any input state. The POVMs form a convex set, and in this language the indecomposable apparatuses are represented by extremal points-the analogous of 'pure states' in the convex set of states. Differently from the case of states, however, indecomposable POVMs are not necessarily rank-one, e.g. von Neumann measurements. In this paper we give a complete classification of indecomposable apparatuses (for discrete spectrum), by providing different necessary and sufficient conditions for extremality of POVMs, along with a simple general algorithm for the decomposition of a POVM into extremals. As an interesting application, 'informationally complete' measurements are analysed in this respect. The convex set of POVMs is fully characterized by determining its border in terms of simple algebraic properties of the corresponding POVMs

  12. Slope stability probability classification, Waikato Coal Measures, New Zealand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindsay, P.; Gillard, G.R.; Moore, T.A. [CRL Energy, PO Box 29-415, Christchurch (New Zealand); Campbell, R.N.; Fergusson, D.A. [Solid Energy North, Private Bag 502, Huntly (New Zealand)

    2001-01-01

    Ferm classified lithological units have been identified and described in the Waikato Coal Measures in open pits in the Waikato coal region. These lithological units have been classified geotechnically by mechanical tests and discontinuity measurements. Using these measurements slope stability probability classifications (SSPC) have been quantified based on an adaptation of Hack's [Slope Stability Probability Classification, ITC Delft Publication, Enschede, Netherlands, vol. 43, 1998, 273 pp.] SSPC system, which places less influence on rock quality designation and unconfined compressive strength than previous slope/rock mass rating systems. The Hack weathering susceptibility rating has been modified by using chemical index of alteration values determined from XRF major element analyses. Slaking is an important parameter in slope stability in the Waikato Coal Measures lithologies and hence, a non-subjective method of assessing slaking in relation to the chemical index of alteration has been introduced. Another major component of this adapted SSPC system is the inclusion of rock moisture content effects on slope stability. The main modifications of Hack's SSPC system are the introduction of rock intact strength derived from the modified Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion, which has been adapted for varying moisture content, weathering state and confining pressure. It is suggested that the subjectivity in assessing intact rock strength within broad bands in the initial SSPC system is a major weakness of the initial system. Initial results indicate a close relationship between rock mass strength values, calculated from rock mass friction angles and rock mass cohesion values derived from two established rock mass classification methods (modified Hoek-Brown failure criteria and MRMR) and the adapted SSPC system. The advantage of the modified SSPC system is that slope stability probabilities based on discontinuity-independent and discontinuity-dependent data and a

  13. Problems in probability theory, mathematical statistics and theory of random functions

    CERN Document Server

    Sveshnikov, A A

    1979-01-01

    Problem solving is the main thrust of this excellent, well-organized workbook. Suitable for students at all levels in probability theory and statistics, the book presents over 1,000 problems and their solutions, illustrating fundamental theory and representative applications in the following fields: Random Events; Distribution Laws; Correlation Theory; Random Variables; Entropy & Information; Markov Processes; Systems of Random Variables; Limit Theorems; Data Processing; and more.The coverage of topics is both broad and deep, ranging from the most elementary combinatorial problems through lim

  14. Eliciting and Developing Teachers' Conceptions of Random Processes in a Probability and Statistics Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Toni M.; Hjalmarson, Margret A.

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine prospective mathematics specialists' engagement in an instructional sequence designed to elicit and develop their understandings of random processes. The study was conducted with two different sections of a probability and statistics course for K-8 teachers. Thirty-two teachers participated. Video analyses…

  15. Stationary Probability and First-Passage Time of Biased Random Walk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Jing-Wen; Tang Shen-Li; Xu Xin-Ping

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we consider the stationary probability and first-passage time of biased random walk on 1D chain, where at each step the walker moves to the left and right with probabilities p and q respectively (0 ⩽ p, q ⩽ 1, p + q = 1). We derive exact analytical results for the stationary probability and first-passage time as a function of p and q for the first time. Our results suggest that the first-passage time shows a double power-law F ∼ (N − 1) γ , where the exponent γ = 2 for N < |p − q| −1 and γ = 1 for N > |p − q| −1 . Our study sheds useful insights into the biased random-walk process. (paper)

  16. Comment on "Measurements without probabilities in the final state proposal"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Eliahu; Nowakowski, Marcin

    2018-04-01

    The final state proposal [G. T. Horowitz and J. M. Maldacena, J. High Energy Phys. 04 (2004) 008, 10.1088/1126-6708/2004/04/008] is an attempt to relax the apparent tension between string theory and semiclassical arguments regarding the unitarity of black hole evaporation. Authors Bousso and Stanford [Phys. Rev. D 89, 044038 (2014), 10.1103/PhysRevD.89.044038] analyze thought experiments where an infalling observer first verifies the entanglement between early and late Hawking modes and then verifies the interior purification of the same Hawking particle. They claim that "probabilities for outcomes of these measurements are not defined" and therefore suggest that "the final state proposal does not offer a consistent alternative to the firewall hypothesis." We show, in contrast, that one may define all the relevant probabilities based on the so-called ABL rule [Y. Aharonov, P. G. Bergmann, and J. L. Lebowitz, Phys. Rev. 134, B1410 (1964), 10.1103/PhysRev.134.B1410], which is better suited for this task than the decoherence functional. We thus assert that the analysis of Bousso and Stanford cannot yet rule out the final state proposal.

  17. Measuring Robustness of Timetables at Stations using a Probability Distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Lars Wittrup; Landex, Alex

    Stations are often the limiting capacity factor in a railway network. This induces interdependencies, especially at at-grade junctions, causing network effects. This paper presents three traditional methods that can be used to measure the complexity of a station, indicating the robustness...... of the station’s infrastructure layout and plan of operation. However, these three methods do not take the timetable at the station into consideration. Therefore, two methods are introduced in this paper, making it possible to estimate the robustness of different timetables at a station or different...... infrastructure layouts given a timetable. These two methods provide different precision at the expense of a more complex calculation process. The advanced and more precise method is based on a probability distribution that can describe the expected delay between two trains as a function of the buffer time...

  18. Slope stability probability classification, Waikato Coal Measures, New Zealand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindsay, P.; Campbell, R.; Fergusson, D.A.; Ferm, J.C.; Gillard, G.R.; Moore, T.A. [CRL Energy Ltd., Christchurch (New Zealand)

    1999-07-01

    Ferm classified lithological units have been identified and described in the Waikato Coal Measures in open pits in the Waikato coal region. These lithological units have been classified geotechnically with mechanical tests and discontinuity measurements. Using these measurements, slope stability probability classification (SSPC) have been quantified based on an adaption of Hack's SSPC system which places less influence on rock quality designation and unconfined compressive strength than previous rock mass rating systems. An attempt has been made to modify the Hack weathering susceptibility rating by using chemical index of alteration values from XRF major element analysis. Another major component of this adapted SSPC system is the inclusion of rock moisture content effects on slope stability. The paper explains the systematic initial approach of using the adapted SSPC system to classify slope stability in the Waikato open pit coal mines. The XRF major element results obtained for lithologies in the Waikato coal region may be a useful mine management tool to quantify stratigraphic thickness and palaeoweathering from wash drill cuttings. 14 refs., 7 figs., 3 tabs.

  19. Probability distribution for the Gaussian curvature of the zero level surface of a random function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannay, J. H.

    2018-04-01

    A rather natural construction for a smooth random surface in space is the level surface of value zero, or ‘nodal’ surface f(x,y,z)  =  0, of a (real) random function f; the interface between positive and negative regions of the function. A physically significant local attribute at a point of a curved surface is its Gaussian curvature (the product of its principal curvatures) because, when integrated over the surface it gives the Euler characteristic. Here the probability distribution for the Gaussian curvature at a random point on the nodal surface f  =  0 is calculated for a statistically homogeneous (‘stationary’) and isotropic zero mean Gaussian random function f. Capitalizing on the isotropy, a ‘fixer’ device for axes supplies the probability distribution directly as a multiple integral. Its evaluation yields an explicit algebraic function with a simple average. Indeed, this average Gaussian curvature has long been known. For a non-zero level surface instead of the nodal one, the probability distribution is not fully tractable, but is supplied as an integral expression.

  20. Fortran code for generating random probability vectors, unitaries, and quantum states

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonas eMaziero

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The usefulness of generating random configurations is recognized in many areas of knowledge. Fortran was born for scientific computing and has been one of the main programming languages in this area since then. And several ongoing projects targeting towards its betterment indicate that it will keep this status in the decades to come. In this article, we describe Fortran codes produced, or organized, for the generation of the following random objects: numbers, probability vectors, unitary matrices, and quantum state vectors and density matrices. Some matrix functions are also included and may be of independent interest.

  1. Probability of failure prediction for step-stress fatigue under sine or random stress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, R. G.

    1979-01-01

    A previously proposed cumulative fatigue damage law is extended to predict the probability of failure or fatigue life for structural materials with S-N fatigue curves represented as a scatterband of failure points. The proposed law applies to structures subjected to sinusoidal or random stresses and includes the effect of initial crack (i.e., flaw) sizes. The corrected cycle ratio damage function is shown to have physical significance.

  2. An extended car-following model considering random safety distance with different probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jufeng; Sun, Fengxin; Cheng, Rongjun; Ge, Hongxia; Wei, Qi

    2018-02-01

    Because of the difference in vehicle type or driving skill, the driving strategy is not exactly the same. The driving speeds of the different vehicles may be different for the same headway. Since the optimal velocity function is just determined by the safety distance besides the maximum velocity and headway, an extended car-following model accounting for random safety distance with different probabilities is proposed in this paper. The linear stable condition for this extended traffic model is obtained by using linear stability theory. Numerical simulations are carried out to explore the complex phenomenon resulting from multiple safety distance in the optimal velocity function. The cases of multiple types of safety distances selected with different probabilities are presented. Numerical results show that the traffic flow with multiple safety distances with different probabilities will be more unstable than that with single type of safety distance, and will result in more stop-and-go phenomena.

  3. Measurement of low energy neutrino absorption probability in thallium 205

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Freedman, M.S.

    1986-01-01

    A major aspect of the P-P neutrino flux determination using thallium 205 is the very difficult problem of experimentally demonstrating the neutrino reaction cross section with about 10% accuracy. One will soon be able to completely strip the electrons from atomic thallium 205 and to maintain the bare nucleus in this state in the heavy storage ring to be built at GSI Darmstadt. This nucleus can decay by emitting a beta-minus particle into the bound K-level of the daughter lead 205 ion as the only energetically open decay channel, (plus, of course, an antineutrino). This single channel beta decay explores the same nuclear wave functions of initial and final states as does the neutrino capture in atomic thallium 205, and thus its probability or rate is governed by the same nuclear matrix elements that affect both weak interactions. Measuring the rate of accumulation of lead 205 ions in the circulating beam of thallium 205 ions gives directly the cross section of the neutrino capture reaction. The calculations of the expected rates under realistic experimental conditions will be shown to be very favorable for the measurement. A special calibration experiment to verify this method and check the theoretical calculations will be suggested. Finally, the neutrino cross section calculation based on the observed rate of the single channel beta-minus decay reaction will be shown. Demonstrating bound state beta decay may be the first verification of the theory of this very important process that influences beta decay rates of several isotopes in stellar interiors, e.g., Re-187, that play important roles in geologic and cosmologic dating and nucleosynthesis. 21 refs., 2 figs

  4. Classical and nonclassical randomness in quantum measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farenick, Douglas; Plosker, Sarah; Smith, Jerrod

    2011-01-01

    The space POVM H (X) of positive operator-valued probability measures on the Borel sets of a compact (or even locally compact) Hausdorff space X with values in B(H), the algebra of linear operators acting on a d-dimensional Hilbert space H, is studied from the perspectives of classical and nonclassical convexity through a transform Γ that associates any positive operator-valued measure ν with a certain completely positive linear map Γ(ν) of the homogeneous C*-algebra C(X) x B(H) into B(H). This association is achieved by using an operator-valued integral in which nonclassical random variables (that is, operator-valued functions) are integrated with respect to positive operator-valued measures and which has the feature that the integral of a random quantum effect is itself a quantum effect. A left inverse Ω for Γ yields an integral representation, along the lines of the classical Riesz representation theorem for linear functionals on C(X), of certain (but not all) unital completely positive linear maps φ:C(X) x B(H)→B(H). The extremal and C*-extremal points of POVM H (X) are determined.

  5. A cellular automata model of traffic flow with variable probability of randomization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zheng Wei-Fan; Zhang Ji-Ye

    2015-01-01

    Research on the stochastic behavior of traffic flow is important to understand the intrinsic evolution rules of a traffic system. By introducing an interactional potential of vehicles into the randomization step, an improved cellular automata traffic flow model with variable probability of randomization is proposed in this paper. In the proposed model, the driver is affected by the interactional potential of vehicles before him, and his decision-making process is related to the interactional potential. Compared with the traditional cellular automata model, the modeling is more suitable for the driver’s random decision-making process based on the vehicle and traffic situations in front of him in actual traffic. From the improved model, the fundamental diagram (flow–density relationship) is obtained, and the detailed high-density traffic phenomenon is reproduced through numerical simulation. (paper)

  6. Some Limit Properties of Random Transition Probability for Second-Order Nonhomogeneous Markov Chains Indexed by a Tree

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shi Zhiyan

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available We study some limit properties of the harmonic mean of random transition probability for a second-order nonhomogeneous Markov chain and a nonhomogeneous Markov chain indexed by a tree. As corollary, we obtain the property of the harmonic mean of random transition probability for a nonhomogeneous Markov chain.

  7. Effect of drain current on appearance probability and amplitude of random telegraph noise in low-noise CMOS image sensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ichino, Shinya; Mawaki, Takezo; Teramoto, Akinobu; Kuroda, Rihito; Park, Hyeonwoo; Wakashima, Shunichi; Goto, Tetsuya; Suwa, Tomoyuki; Sugawa, Shigetoshi

    2018-04-01

    Random telegraph noise (RTN), which occurs in in-pixel source follower (SF) transistors, has become one of the most critical problems in high-sensitivity CMOS image sensors (CIS) because it is a limiting factor of dark random noise. In this paper, the behaviors of RTN toward changes in SF drain current conditions were analyzed using a low-noise array test circuit measurement system with a floor noise of 35 µV rms. In addition to statistical analysis by measuring a large number of transistors (18048 transistors), we also analyzed the behaviors of RTN parameters such as amplitude and time constants in the individual transistors. It is demonstrated that the appearance probability of RTN becomes small under a small drain current condition, although large-amplitude RTN tends to appear in a very small number of cells.

  8. Spencer-Brown vs. Probability and Statistics: Entropy’s Testimony on Subjective and Objective Randomness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julio Michael Stern

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available This article analyzes the role of entropy in Bayesian statistics, focusing on its use as a tool for detection, recognition and validation of eigen-solutions. “Objects as eigen-solutions” is a key metaphor of the cognitive constructivism epistemological framework developed by the philosopher Heinz von Foerster. Special attention is given to some objections to the concepts of probability, statistics and randomization posed by George Spencer-Brown, a figure of great influence in the field of radical constructivism.

  9. General Exact Solution to the Problem of the Probability Density for Sums of Random Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tribelsky, Michael I.

    2002-07-01

    The exact explicit expression for the probability density pN(x) for a sum of N random, arbitrary correlated summands is obtained. The expression is valid for any number N and any distribution of the random summands. Most attention is paid to application of the developed approach to the case of independent and identically distributed summands. The obtained results reproduce all known exact solutions valid for the, so called, stable distributions of the summands. It is also shown that if the distribution is not stable, the profile of pN(x) may be divided into three parts, namely a core (small x), a tail (large x), and a crossover from the core to the tail (moderate x). The quantitative description of all three parts as well as that for the entire profile is obtained. A number of particular examples are considered in detail.

  10. Probability-1

    CERN Document Server

    Shiryaev, Albert N

    2016-01-01

    This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, the measure-theoretic foundations of probability theory, weak convergence of probability measures, and the central limit theorem. Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises. The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for independent study. To accommodate the greatly expanded material in the third edition of Probability, the book is now divided into two volumes. This first volume contains updated references and substantial revisions of the first three chapters of the second edition. In particular, new material has been added on generating functions, the inclusion-exclusion principle, theorems on monotonic classes (relying on a detailed treatment of “π-λ” systems), and the fundamental theorems of mathematical statistics.

  11. Method for Evaluation of Outage Probability on Random Access Channel in Mobile Communication Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kollár, Martin

    2012-05-01

    In order to access the cell in all mobile communication technologies a so called random-access procedure is used. For example in GSM this is represented by sending the CHANNEL REQUEST message from Mobile Station (MS) to Base Transceiver Station (BTS) which is consequently forwarded as an CHANNEL REQUIRED message to the Base Station Controller (BSC). If the BTS decodes some noise on the Random Access Channel (RACH) as random access by mistake (so- called ‘phantom RACH') then it is a question of pure coincidence which èstablishment cause’ the BTS thinks to have recognized. A typical invalid channel access request or phantom RACH is characterized by an IMMEDIATE ASSIGNMENT procedure (assignment of an SDCCH or TCH) which is not followed by sending an ESTABLISH INDICATION from MS to BTS. In this paper a mathematical model for evaluation of the Power RACH Busy Threshold (RACHBT) in order to guaranty in advance determined outage probability on RACH is described and discussed as well. It focuses on Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) however the obtained results can be generalized on remaining mobile technologies (ie WCDMA and LTE).

  12. Convergence estimates in probability and in expectation for discrete least squares with noisy evaluations at random points

    KAUST Repository

    Migliorati, Giovanni

    2015-08-28

    We study the accuracy of the discrete least-squares approximation on a finite dimensional space of a real-valued target function from noisy pointwise evaluations at independent random points distributed according to a given sampling probability measure. The convergence estimates are given in mean-square sense with respect to the sampling measure. The noise may be correlated with the location of the evaluation and may have nonzero mean (offset). We consider both cases of bounded or square-integrable noise / offset. We prove conditions between the number of sampling points and the dimension of the underlying approximation space that ensure a stable and accurate approximation. Particular focus is on deriving estimates in probability within a given confidence level. We analyze how the best approximation error and the noise terms affect the convergence rate and the overall confidence level achieved by the convergence estimate. The proofs of our convergence estimates in probability use arguments from the theory of large deviations to bound the noise term. Finally we address the particular case of multivariate polynomial approximation spaces with any density in the beta family, including uniform and Chebyshev.

  13. Convergence estimates in probability and in expectation for discrete least squares with noisy evaluations at random points

    KAUST Repository

    Migliorati, Giovanni; Nobile, Fabio; Tempone, Raul

    2015-01-01

    We study the accuracy of the discrete least-squares approximation on a finite dimensional space of a real-valued target function from noisy pointwise evaluations at independent random points distributed according to a given sampling probability

  14. Some results on convergence rates for probabilities of moderate deviations for sums of random variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deli Li

    1992-01-01

    Full Text Available Let X, Xn, n≥1 be a sequence of iid real random variables, and Sn=∑k=1nXk, n≥1. Convergence rates of moderate deviations are derived, i.e., the rate of convergence to zero of certain tail probabilities of the partial sums are determined. For example, we obtain equivalent conditions for the convergence of series ∑n≥1(ψ2(n/nP(|Sn|≥nφ(n only under the assumptions convergence that EX=0 and EX2=1, where φ and ψ are taken from a broad class of functions. These results generalize and improve some recent results of Li (1991 and Gafurov (1982 and some previous work of Davis (1968. For b∈[0,1] and ϵ>0, letλϵ,b=∑n≥3((loglognb/nI(|Sn|≥(2+ϵnloglogn.The behaviour of Eλϵ,b as ϵ↓0 is also studied.

  15. Lay understanding of forensic statistics: Evaluation of random match probabilities, likelihood ratios, and verbal equivalents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, William C; Newman, Eryn J

    2015-08-01

    Forensic scientists have come under increasing pressure to quantify the strength of their evidence, but it is not clear which of several possible formats for presenting quantitative conclusions will be easiest for lay people, such as jurors, to understand. This experiment examined the way that people recruited from Amazon's Mechanical Turk (n = 541) responded to 2 types of forensic evidence--a DNA comparison and a shoeprint comparison--when an expert explained the strength of this evidence 3 different ways: using random match probabilities (RMPs), likelihood ratios (LRs), or verbal equivalents of likelihood ratios (VEs). We found that verdicts were sensitive to the strength of DNA evidence regardless of how the expert explained it, but verdicts were sensitive to the strength of shoeprint evidence only when the expert used RMPs. The weight given to DNA evidence was consistent with the predictions of a Bayesian network model that incorporated the perceived risk of a false match from 3 causes (coincidence, a laboratory error, and a frame-up), but shoeprint evidence was undervalued relative to the same Bayesian model. Fallacious interpretations of the expert's testimony (consistent with the source probability error and the defense attorney's fallacy) were common and were associated with the weight given to the evidence and verdicts. The findings indicate that perceptions of forensic science evidence are shaped by prior beliefs and expectations as well as expert testimony and consequently that the best way to characterize and explain forensic evidence may vary across forensic disciplines. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  16. Characteristics of the probability function for three random-walk models of reaction--diffusion processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Musho, M.K.; Kozak, J.J.

    1984-01-01

    A method is presented for calculating exactly the relative width (sigma 2 )/sup 1/2// , the skewness γ 1 , and the kurtosis γ 2 characterizing the probability distribution function for three random-walk models of diffusion-controlled processes. For processes in which a diffusing coreactant A reacts irreversibly with a target molecule B situated at a reaction center, three models are considered. The first is the traditional one of an unbiased, nearest-neighbor random walk on a d-dimensional periodic/confining lattice with traps; the second involves the consideration of unbiased, non-nearest-neigh bor (i.e., variable-step length) walks on the same d-dimensional lattice; and, the third deals with the case of a biased, nearest-neighbor walk on a d-dimensional lattice (wherein a walker experiences a potential centered at the deep trap site of the lattice). Our method, which has been described in detail elsewhere [P.A. Politowicz and J. J. Kozak, Phys. Rev. B 28, 5549 (1983)] is based on the use of group theoretic arguments within the framework of the theory of finite Markov processes

  17. On the Generation of Random Ensembles of Qubits and Qutrits Computing Separability Probabilities for Fixed Rank States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khvedelidze Arsen

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The generation of random mixed states is discussed, aiming for the computation of probabilistic characteristics of composite finite dimensional quantum systems. In particular, we consider the generation of random Hilbert-Schmidt and Bures ensembles of qubit and qutrit pairs and compute the corresponding probabilities to find a separable state among the states of a fixed rank.

  18. Introduction to probability with R

    CERN Document Server

    Baclawski, Kenneth

    2008-01-01

    FOREWORD PREFACE Sets, Events, and Probability The Algebra of Sets The Bernoulli Sample Space The Algebra of Multisets The Concept of Probability Properties of Probability Measures Independent Events The Bernoulli Process The R Language Finite Processes The Basic Models Counting Rules Computing Factorials The Second Rule of Counting Computing Probabilities Discrete Random Variables The Bernoulli Process: Tossing a Coin The Bernoulli Process: Random Walk Independence and Joint Distributions Expectations The Inclusion-Exclusion Principle General Random Variable

  19. Contribution to the neutronic theory of random stacks (diffusion coefficient and first-flight collision probabilities) with a general theorem on collision probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dixmier, Marc.

    1980-10-01

    A general expression of the diffusion coefficient (d.c.) of neutrons was given, with stress being put on symmetries. A system of first-flight collision probabilities for the case of a random stack of any number of types of one- and two-zoned spherical pebbles, with an albedo at the frontiers of the elements or (either) consideration of the interstital medium, was built; to that end, the bases of collision probability theory were reviewed, and a wide generalisation of the reciprocity theorem for those probabilities was demonstrated. The migration area of neutrons was expressed for any random stack of convex, 'simple' and 'regular-contact' elements, taking into account the correlations between free-paths; the average cosinus of re-emission of neutrons by an element, in the case of a homogeneous spherical pebble and the transport approximation, was expressed; the superiority of the so-found result over Behrens' theory, for the type of media under consideration, was established. The 'fine structure current term' of the d.c. was also expressed, and it was shown that its 'polarisation term' is negligible. Numerical applications showed that the global heterogeneity effect on the d.c. of pebble-bed reactors is comparable with that for Graphite-moderated, Carbon gas-cooled, natural Uranium reactors. The code CARACOLE, which integrates all the results here obtained, was introduced [fr

  20. Formulas for Rational-Valued Separability Probabilities of Random Induced Generalized Two-Qubit States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul B. Slater

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Previously, a formula, incorporating a 5F4 hypergeometric function, for the Hilbert-Schmidt-averaged determinantal moments ρPTnρk/ρk of 4×4 density-matrices (ρ and their partial transposes (|ρPT|, was applied with k=0 to the generalized two-qubit separability probability question. The formula can, furthermore, be viewed, as we note here, as an averaging over “induced measures in the space of mixed quantum states.” The associated induced-measure separability probabilities (k=1,2,… are found—via a high-precision density approximation procedure—to assume interesting, relatively simple rational values in the two-re[al]bit (α=1/2, (standard two-qubit (α=1, and two-quater[nionic]bit (α=2 cases. We deduce rather simple companion (rebit, qubit, quaterbit, … formulas that successfully reproduce the rational values assumed for general  k. These formulas are observed to share certain features, possibly allowing them to be incorporated into a single master formula.

  1. Approximation of Measurement Results of “Emergency” Signal Reception Probability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gajda Stanisław

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The intended aim of this article is to present approximation results of the exemplary measurements of EMERGENCY signal reception probability. The probability is under-stood as a distance function between the aircraft and a ground-based system under established conditions. The measurements were approximated using the properties of logistic functions. This probability, as a distance function, enables to determine the range of the EMERGENCY signal for a pre-set confidence level.

  2. Probability calculus of fractional order and fractional Taylor's series application to Fokker-Planck equation and information of non-random functions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jumarie, Guy

    2009-01-01

    A probability distribution of fractional (or fractal) order is defined by the measure μ{dx} = p(x)(dx) α , 0 α (D x α h α )f(x) provided by the modified Riemann Liouville definition, one can expand a probability calculus parallel to the standard one. A Fourier's transform of fractional order using the Mittag-Leffler function is introduced, together with its inversion formula; and it provides a suitable generalization of the characteristic function of fractal random variables. It appears that the state moments of fractional order are more especially relevant. The main properties of this fractional probability calculus are outlined, it is shown that it provides a sound approach to Fokker-Planck equation which are fractional in both space and time, and it provides new results in the information theory of non-random functions.

  3. A measure of mutual divergence among a number of probability distributions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. N. Kapur

    1987-01-01

    major inequalities due to Shannon, Renyi and Holder. The inequalities are then used to obtain some useful results in information theory. In particular measures are obtained to measure the mutual divergence among two or more probability distributions.

  4. Random function representation of stationary stochastic vector processes for probability density evolution analysis of wind-induced structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhangjun; Liu, Zenghui

    2018-06-01

    This paper develops a hybrid approach of spectral representation and random function for simulating stationary stochastic vector processes. In the proposed approach, the high-dimensional random variables, included in the original spectral representation (OSR) formula, could be effectively reduced to only two elementary random variables by introducing the random functions that serve as random constraints. Based on this, a satisfactory simulation accuracy can be guaranteed by selecting a small representative point set of the elementary random variables. The probability information of the stochastic excitations can be fully emerged through just several hundred of sample functions generated by the proposed approach. Therefore, combined with the probability density evolution method (PDEM), it could be able to implement dynamic response analysis and reliability assessment of engineering structures. For illustrative purposes, a stochastic turbulence wind velocity field acting on a frame-shear-wall structure is simulated by constructing three types of random functions to demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed approach. Careful and in-depth studies concerning the probability density evolution analysis of the wind-induced structure have been conducted so as to better illustrate the application prospects of the proposed approach. Numerical examples also show that the proposed approach possesses a good robustness.

  5. What's Missing in Teaching Probability and Statistics: Building Cognitive Schema for Understanding Random Phenomena

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuzmak, Sylvia

    2016-01-01

    Teaching probability and statistics is more than teaching the mathematics itself. Historically, the mathematics of probability and statistics was first developed through analyzing games of chance such as the rolling of dice. This article makes the case that the understanding of probability and statistics is dependent upon building a…

  6. Digital simulation of two-dimensional random fields with arbitrary power spectra and non-Gaussian probability distribution functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yura, Harold T; Hanson, Steen G

    2012-04-01

    Methods for simulation of two-dimensional signals with arbitrary power spectral densities and signal amplitude probability density functions are disclosed. The method relies on initially transforming a white noise sample set of random Gaussian distributed numbers into a corresponding set with the desired spectral distribution, after which this colored Gaussian probability distribution is transformed via an inverse transform into the desired probability distribution. In most cases the method provides satisfactory results and can thus be considered an engineering approach. Several illustrative examples with relevance for optics are given.

  7. Quantum probabilities of composite events in quantum measurements with multimode states

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yukalov, V I; Sornette, D

    2013-01-01

    The problem of defining quantum probabilities of composite events is considered. This problem is of great importance for the theory of quantum measurements and for quantum decision theory, which is a part of measurement theory. We show that the Lüders probability of consecutive measurements is a transition probability between two quantum states and that this probability cannot be treated as a quantum extension of the classical conditional probability. The Wigner distribution is shown to be a weighted transition probability that cannot be accepted as a quantum extension of the classical joint probability. We suggest the definition of quantum joint probabilities by introducing composite events in multichannel measurements. The notion of measurements under uncertainty is defined. We demonstrate that the necessary condition for mode interference is the entanglement of the composite prospect together with the entanglement of the composite statistical state. As an illustration, we consider an example of a quantum game. Special attention is paid to the application of the approach to systems with multimode states, such as atoms, molecules, quantum dots, or trapped Bose-condensed atoms with several coherent modes. (paper)

  8. On Generating Optimal Signal Probabilities for Random Tests: A Genetic Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Srinivas

    1996-01-01

    Full Text Available Genetic Algorithms are robust search and optimization techniques. A Genetic Algorithm based approach for determining the optimal input distributions for generating random test vectors is proposed in the paper. A cost function based on the COP testability measure for determining the efficacy of the input distributions is discussed. A brief overview of Genetic Algorithms (GAs and the specific details of our implementation are described. Experimental results based on ISCAS-85 benchmark circuits are presented. The performance of our GAbased approach is compared with previous results. While the GA generates more efficient input distributions than the previous methods which are based on gradient descent search, the overheads of the GA in computing the input distributions are larger.

  9. Impulsive synchronization of Markovian jumping randomly coupled neural networks with partly unknown transition probabilities via multiple integral approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandrasekar, A; Rakkiyappan, R; Cao, Jinde

    2015-10-01

    This paper studies the impulsive synchronization of Markovian jumping randomly coupled neural networks with partly unknown transition probabilities via multiple integral approach. The array of neural networks are coupled in a random fashion which is governed by Bernoulli random variable. The aim of this paper is to obtain the synchronization criteria, which is suitable for both exactly known and partly unknown transition probabilities such that the coupled neural network is synchronized with mixed time-delay. The considered impulsive effects can be synchronized at partly unknown transition probabilities. Besides, a multiple integral approach is also proposed to strengthen the Markovian jumping randomly coupled neural networks with partly unknown transition probabilities. By making use of Kronecker product and some useful integral inequalities, a novel Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional was designed for handling the coupled neural network with mixed delay and then impulsive synchronization criteria are solvable in a set of linear matrix inequalities. Finally, numerical examples are presented to illustrate the effectiveness and advantages of the theoretical results. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Reheating-volume measure for random-walk inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winitzki, Sergei

    2008-01-01

    The recently proposed 'reheating-volume' (RV) measure promises to solve the long-standing problem of extracting probabilistic predictions from cosmological multiverse scenarios involving eternal inflation. I give a detailed description of the new measure and its applications to generic models of eternal inflation of random-walk type. For those models I derive a general formula for RV-regulated probability distributions that is suitable for numerical computations. I show that the results of the RV cutoff in random-walk type models are always gauge invariant and independent of the initial conditions at the beginning of inflation. In a toy model where equal-time cutoffs lead to the 'youngness paradox', the RV cutoff yields unbiased results that are distinct from previously proposed measures.

  11. Probability distributions of placental morphological measurements and origins of variability of placental shapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yampolsky, M; Salafia, C M; Shlakhter, O

    2013-06-01

    While the mean shape of human placenta is round with centrally inserted umbilical cord, significant deviations from this ideal are fairly common, and may be clinically meaningful. Traditionally, they are explained by trophotropism. We have proposed a hypothesis explaining typical variations in placental shape by randomly determined fluctuations in the growth process of the vascular tree. It has been recently reported that umbilical cord displacement in a birth cohort has a log-normal probability distribution, which indicates that the displacement between an initial point of origin and the centroid of the mature shape is a result of accumulation of random fluctuations of the dynamic growth of the placenta. To confirm this, we investigate statistical distributions of other features of placental morphology. In a cohort of 1023 births at term digital photographs of placentas were recorded at delivery. Excluding cases with velamentous cord insertion, or missing clinical data left 1001 (97.8%) for which placental surface morphology features were measured. Best-fit statistical distributions for them were obtained using EasyFit. The best-fit distributions of umbilical cord displacement, placental disk diameter, area, perimeter, and maximal radius calculated from the cord insertion point are of heavy-tailed type, similar in shape to log-normal distributions. This is consistent with a stochastic origin of deviations of placental shape from normal. Deviations of placental shape descriptors from average have heavy-tailed distributions similar in shape to log-normal. This evidence points away from trophotropism, and towards a spontaneous stochastic evolution of the variants of placental surface shape features. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Non-stationary random vibration analysis of a 3D train-bridge system using the probability density evolution method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Zhi-wu; Mao, Jian-feng; Guo, Feng-qi; Guo, Wei

    2016-03-01

    Rail irregularity is one of the main sources causing train-bridge random vibration. A new random vibration theory for the coupled train-bridge systems is proposed in this paper. First, number theory method (NTM) with 2N-dimensional vectors for the stochastic harmonic function (SHF) of rail irregularity power spectrum density was adopted to determine the representative points of spatial frequencies and phases to generate the random rail irregularity samples, and the non-stationary rail irregularity samples were modulated with the slowly varying function. Second, the probability density evolution method (PDEM) was employed to calculate the random dynamic vibration of the three-dimensional (3D) train-bridge system by a program compiled on the MATLAB® software platform. Eventually, the Newmark-β integration method and double edge difference method of total variation diminishing (TVD) format were adopted to obtain the mean value curve, the standard deviation curve and the time-history probability density information of responses. A case study was presented in which the ICE-3 train travels on a three-span simply-supported high-speed railway bridge with excitation of random rail irregularity. The results showed that compared to the Monte Carlo simulation, the PDEM has higher computational efficiency for the same accuracy, i.e., an improvement by 1-2 orders of magnitude. Additionally, the influences of rail irregularity and train speed on the random vibration of the coupled train-bridge system were discussed.

  13. Frequency format diagram and probability chart for breast cancer risk communication: a prospective, randomized trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wahner-Roedler Dietlind

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Breast cancer risk education enables women make informed decisions regarding their options for screening and risk reduction. We aimed to determine whether patient education regarding breast cancer risk using a bar graph, with or without a frequency format diagram, improved the accuracy of risk perception. Methods We conducted a prospective, randomized trial among women at increased risk for breast cancer. The main outcome measurement was patients' estimation of their breast cancer risk before and after education with a bar graph (BG group or bar graph plus a frequency format diagram (BG+FF group, which was assessed by previsit and postvisit questionnaires. Results Of 150 women in the study, 74 were assigned to the BG group and 76 to the BG+FF group. Overall, 72% of women overestimated their risk of breast cancer. The improvement in accuracy of risk perception from the previsit to the postvisit questionnaire (BG group, 19% to 61%; BG+FF group, 13% to 67% was not significantly different between the 2 groups (P = .10. Among women who inaccurately perceived very high risk (≥ 50% risk, inaccurate risk perception decreased significantly in the BG+FF group (22% to 3% compared with the BG group (28% to 19% (P = .004. Conclusion Breast cancer risk communication using a bar graph plus a frequency format diagram can improve the short-term accuracy of risk perception among women perceiving inaccurately high risk.

  14. Trending in Probability of Collision Measurements via a Bayesian Zero-Inflated Beta Mixed Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vallejo, Jonathon; Hejduk, Matt; Stamey, James

    2015-01-01

    We investigate the performance of a generalized linear mixed model in predicting the Probabilities of Collision (Pc) for conjunction events. Specifically, we apply this model to the log(sub 10) transformation of these probabilities and argue that this transformation yields values that can be considered bounded in practice. Additionally, this bounded random variable, after scaling, is zero-inflated. Consequently, we model these values using the zero-inflated Beta distribution, and utilize the Bayesian paradigm and the mixed model framework to borrow information from past and current events. This provides a natural way to model the data and provides a basis for answering questions of interest, such as what is the likelihood of observing a probability of collision equal to the effective value of zero on a subsequent observation.

  15. Investigating and improving student understanding of the probability distributions for measuring physical observables in quantum mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marshman, Emily; Singh, Chandralekha

    2017-01-01

    A solid grasp of the probability distributions for measuring physical observables is central to connecting the quantum formalism to measurements. However, students often struggle with the probability distributions of measurement outcomes for an observable and have difficulty expressing this concept in different representations. Here we first describe the difficulties that upper-level undergraduate and PhD students have with the probability distributions for measuring physical observables in quantum mechanics. We then discuss how student difficulties found in written surveys and individual interviews were used as a guide in the development of a quantum interactive learning tutorial (QuILT) to help students develop a good grasp of the probability distributions of measurement outcomes for physical observables. The QuILT strives to help students become proficient in expressing the probability distributions for the measurement of physical observables in Dirac notation and in the position representation and be able to convert from Dirac notation to position representation and vice versa. We describe the development and evaluation of the QuILT and findings about the effectiveness of the QuILT from in-class evaluations. (paper)

  16. Assembly for the measurement of the most probable energy of directed electron radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geske, G.

    1987-01-01

    This invention relates to a setup for the measurement of the most probable energy of directed electron radiation up to 50 MeV. The known energy-range relationship with regard to the absorption of electron radiation in matter is utilized by an absorber with two groups of interconnected radiation detectors embedded in it. The most probable electron beam energy is derived from the quotient of both groups' signals

  17. Spectral shaping of a randomized PWM DC-DC converter using maximum entropy probability distributions

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Dove, Albert

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available maintaining constraints in a DC-DC converter is investigated. A probability distribution whose aim is to ensure maximal harmonic spreading and yet mainaint constraints is presented. The PDFs are determined from a direct application of the method of Maximum...

  18. Making Heads or Tails of Probability: An Experiment with Random Generators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morsanyi, Kinga; Handley, Simon J.; Serpell, Sylvie

    2013-01-01

    Background: The equiprobability bias is a tendency for individuals to think of probabilistic events as "equiprobable" by nature, and to judge outcomes that occur with different probabilities as equally likely. The equiprobability bias has been repeatedly found to be related to formal education in statistics, and it is claimed to be based…

  19. A new formulation of the probability density function in random walk models for atmospheric dispersion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Falk, Anne Katrine Vinther; Gryning, Sven-Erik

    1997-01-01

    In this model for atmospheric dispersion particles are simulated by the Langevin Equation, which is a stochastic differential equation. It uses the probability density function (PDF) of the vertical velocity fluctuations as input. The PDF is constructed as an expansion after Hermite polynomials...

  20. Algorithmic randomness, physical entropy, measurements, and the second law

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zurek, W.H.

    1989-01-01

    Algorithmic information content is equal to the size -- in the number of bits -- of the shortest program for a universal Turing machine which can reproduce a state of a physical system. In contrast to the statistical Boltzmann-Gibbs-Shannon entropy, which measures ignorance, the algorithmic information content is a measure of the available information. It is defined without a recourse to probabilities and can be regarded as a measure of randomness of a definite microstate. I suggest that the physical entropy S -- that is, the quantity which determines the amount of the work ΔW which can be extracted in the cyclic isothermal expansion process through the equation ΔW = k B TΔS -- is a sum of two contributions: the mission information measured by the usual statistical entropy and the known randomness measured by the algorithmic information content. The sum of these two contributions is a ''constant of motion'' in the process of a dissipation less measurement on an equilibrium ensemble. This conservation under a measurement, which can be traced back to the noiseless coding theorem of Shannon, is necessary to rule out existence of a successful Maxwell's demon. 17 refs., 3 figs

  1. Measurements of transition probabilities in the range from vacuum ultraviolet to infrared

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peraza Fernandez, M.C.

    1992-01-01

    In this memory we describe the design, testing and calibration of different spectrometers to measure transition probabilities from the vacuum ultraviolet to the infrared spectral region. For the infrared measurements we have designed and performed a phase sensitive detection system, using an InGaAs photodiode like detector. With this system we have determined the transition probabilities of infrared lines of KrI and XeI. For these lines we haven't found previous measurements. In the vacuum ultraviolet spectral region we have designed a 3 m normal incidence monochromator where we have installed an optical multichannel analyzer. We have tested its accurate working, obtaining the absorption spectrum of KrI. In the visible region we have obtained the emission spectrum of Al using different spectral: hallow-cathode lamp and Nd: YAG laser produced Al plasma. With these spectra we have determined different atomic parameters like transition probabilities and electron temperatures.(author). 83 refs

  2. On the regularity of the extinction probability of a branching process in varying and random environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alili, Smail; Rugh, Hans Henrik

    2008-01-01

    We consider a supercritical branching process in time-dependent environment ξ. We assume that the offspring distributions depend regularly (C k or real-analytically) on real parameters λ. We show that the extinction probability q λ (ξ), given the environment ξ 'inherits' this regularity whenever the offspring distributions satisfy a condition of contraction-type. Our proof makes use of the Poincaré metric on the complex unit disc and a real-analytic implicit function theorem

  3. The distribution function of a probability measure on a space with a fractal structure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanchez-Granero, M.A.; Galvez-Rodriguez, J.F.

    2017-07-01

    In this work we show how to define a probability measure with the help of a fractal structure. One of the keys of this approach is to use the completion of the fractal structure. Then we use the theory of a cumulative distribution function on a Polish ultrametric space and describe it in this context. Finally, with the help of fractal structures, we prove that a function satisfying the properties of a cumulative distribution function on a Polish ultrametric space is a cumulative distribution function with respect to some probability measure on the space. (Author)

  4. Measurement of the spark probability in single gap parallel plate chambers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arefiev, A.; Bencze, Gy.L.; Choumilov, E.; Civinini, C.; Dalla Santa, F.; D'Alessandro, R.; Ferrando, A.; Fouz, M.C.; Golovkin, V.; Kholodenko, A.; Iglesias, A.; Ivochkin, V.; Josa, M.I.; Malinin, A.; Meschini, M.; Misyura, S.; Pojidaev, V.; Salicio, J.M.

    1996-01-01

    We present results on the measurements of the spark probability with CO 2 and CF 4 /CO 2 (80/20) mixture, at atmospheric pressure, using 1.5 mm gas gap parallel plate chambers, working at a gas gain ranging from 4.5 x 10 2 to 3.3 x 10 4 . (orig.)

  5. Measurement of the Mis-identification Probability of τ Leptons from Hadronic Jets and from Electrons

    CERN Document Server

    The ATLAS collaboration

    2011-01-01

    Measurements of the mis-identification probability of QCD jets and electrons as hadronically decaying τ leptons using tag-and-probe methods are described. The analyses are based on 35pb−1 of proton-proton collision data, taken by the ATLAS experiment at a center-of-mass energy of sqrt(s) = 7 TeV. The mis-identification probabilities range between 10% and 0.1% for QCD jets, and about (1 − 2)% for electrons. They depend on the identification algorithm chosen, the pT and the number of prongs of the τ candidate, and on the amount of pile up present in the event.

  6. The mean distance to the nth neighbour in a uniform distribution of random points: an application of probability theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhattacharyya, Pratip; Chakrabarti, Bikas K

    2008-01-01

    We study different ways of determining the mean distance (r n ) between a reference point and its nth neighbour among random points distributed with uniform density in a D-dimensional Euclidean space. First, we present a heuristic method; though this method provides only a crude mathematical result, it shows a simple way of estimating (r n ). Next, we describe two alternative means of deriving the exact expression of (r n ): we review the method using absolute probability and develop an alternative method using conditional probability. Finally, we obtain an approximation to (r n ) from the mean volume between the reference point and its nth neighbour and compare it with the heuristic and exact results

  7. Measurement of D-T neutron penetration probability spectra for iron ball shell systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duan Shaojie

    1998-06-01

    The D-T neutron penetration probability spectra are measured for iron ball shell systems of the series of samples used in the experiments, and the penetration curves are presented. As the detector is near to samples, the measured results being approximately corrected are compared with those in the literature, and it is shown that the former is compatible with the latter in the range of the experimental error

  8. Hidden measurements, hidden variables and the volume representation of transition probabilities

    OpenAIRE

    Oliynyk, Todd A.

    2005-01-01

    We construct, for any finite dimension $n$, a new hidden measurement model for quantum mechanics based on representing quantum transition probabilities by the volume of regions in projective Hilbert space. For $n=2$ our model is equivalent to the Aerts sphere model and serves as a generalization of it for dimensions $n \\geq 3$. We also show how to construct a hidden variables scheme based on hidden measurements and we discuss how joint distributions arise in our hidden variables scheme and th...

  9. Link importance incorporated failure probability measuring solution for multicast light-trees in elastic optical networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xin; Zhang, Lu; Tang, Ying; Huang, Shanguo

    2018-03-01

    The light-tree-based optical multicasting (LT-OM) scheme provides a spectrum- and energy-efficient method to accommodate emerging multicast services. Some studies focus on the survivability technologies for LTs against a fixed number of link failures, such as single-link failure. However, a few studies involve failure probability constraints when building LTs. It is worth noting that each link of an LT plays different important roles under failure scenarios. When calculating the failure probability of an LT, the importance of its every link should be considered. We design a link importance incorporated failure probability measuring solution (LIFPMS) for multicast LTs under independent failure model and shared risk link group failure model. Based on the LIFPMS, we put forward the minimum failure probability (MFP) problem for the LT-OM scheme. Heuristic approaches are developed to address the MFP problem in elastic optical networks. Numerical results show that the LIFPMS provides an accurate metric for calculating the failure probability of multicast LTs and enhances the reliability of the LT-OM scheme while accommodating multicast services.

  10. Risk Probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rojas-Nandayapa, Leonardo

    Tail probabilities of sums of heavy-tailed random variables are of a major importance in various branches of Applied Probability, such as Risk Theory, Queueing Theory, Financial Management, and are subject to intense research nowadays. To understand their relevance one just needs to think...... analytic expression for the distribution function of a sum of random variables. The presence of heavy-tailed random variables complicates the problem even more. The objective of this dissertation is to provide better approximations by means of sharp asymptotic expressions and Monte Carlo estimators...

  11. New measurements of spontaneous transition probabilities for beryllium-like ions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lang, J.; Hardcastle, R.A.; McWhirter, R.W.P.; Spurrett, P.H.

    1986-06-01

    The authors describe measurements of spectral line intensities for pairs of transitions having common upper levels and thus derive the branching ratios of their spontaneous radiative transition probabilities. These are then combined with the results of measurements of the radiative lifetimes of the upper levels by other authors to obtain values of the individual transition probabilities. The results are for transitions in NIV, OV and NeVII and are given with a claimed accuracy of between 7% and 38%. These are compared with values calculated theoretically. For some of the simpler electric dipole transitions good agreement is found. On the other hand for some of the other transitions which in certain cases are only possible because of configuration interaction disparities between the present measurements and theory are as large as x5. (author)

  12. Wolf Attack Probability: A Theoretical Security Measure in Biometric Authentication Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Une, Masashi; Otsuka, Akira; Imai, Hideki

    This paper will propose a wolf attack probability (WAP) as a new measure for evaluating security of biometric authentication systems. The wolf attack is an attempt to impersonate a victim by feeding “wolves” into the system to be attacked. The “wolf” means an input value which can be falsely accepted as a match with multiple templates. WAP is defined as a maximum success probability of the wolf attack with one wolf sample. In this paper, we give a rigorous definition of the new security measure which gives strength estimation of an individual biometric authentication system against impersonation attacks. We show that if one reestimates using our WAP measure, a typical fingerprint algorithm turns out to be much weaker than theoretically estimated by Ratha et al. Moreover, we apply the wolf attack to a finger-vein-pattern based algorithm. Surprisingly, we show that there exists an extremely strong wolf which falsely matches all templates for any threshold value.

  13. Estimation of (n,f) Cross-Sections by Measuring Reaction Probability Ratios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Plettner, C; Ai, H; Beausang, C W; Bernstein, L A; Ahle, L; Amro, H; Babilon, M; Burke, J T; Caggiano, J A; Casten, R F; Church, J A; Cooper, J R; Crider, B; Gurdal, G; Heinz, A; McCutchan, E A; Moody, K; Punyon, J A; Qian, J; Ressler, J J; Schiller, A; Williams, E; Younes, W

    2005-04-21

    Neutron-induced reaction cross-sections on unstable nuclei are inherently difficult to measure due to target activity and the low intensity of neutron beams. In an alternative approach, named the 'surrogate' technique, one measures the decay probability of the same compound nucleus produced using a stable beam on a stable target to estimate the neutron-induced reaction cross-section. As an extension of the surrogate method, in this paper they introduce a new technique of measuring the fission probabilities of two different compound nuclei as a ratio, which has the advantage of removing most of the systematic uncertainties. This method was benchmarked in this report by measuring the probability of deuteron-induced fission events in coincidence with protons, and forming the ratio P({sup 236}U(d,pf))/P({sup 238}U(d,pf)), which serves as a surrogate for the known cross-section ratio of {sup 236}U(n,f)/{sup 238}U(n,f). IN addition, the P({sup 238}U(d,d{prime}f))/P({sup 236}U(d,d{prime}f)) ratio as a surrogate for the {sup 237}U(n,f)/{sup 235}U(n,f) cross-section ratio was measured for the first time in an unprecedented range of excitation energies.

  14. The Random Walk of Cars and Their Collision Probabilities with Planets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanno Rein

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available On 6 February 2018, SpaceX launched a Tesla Roadster on a Mars-crossing orbit. We perform N-body simulations to determine the fate of the object over the next 15 Myr. The orbital evolution is initially dominated by close encounters with the Earth. While a precise orbit can not be predicted beyond the next several centuries due to these repeated chaotic scatterings, one can reliably predict the long-term outcomes by statistically analyzing a large suite of possible trajectories with slightly perturbed initial conditions. Repeated gravitational scatterings with Earth lead to a random walk. Collisions with the Earth, Venus and the Sun represent primary sinks for the Roadster’s orbital evolution. Collisions with Mercury and Mars, or ejections from the Solar System by Jupiter, are highly unlikely. We calculate a dynamical half-life of the Tesla of approximately 15 Myr, with some 22%, 12% and 12% of Roadster orbit realizations impacting the Earth, Venus, and the Sun within one half-life, respectively. Because the eccentricities and inclinations in our ensemble increase over time due to mean-motion and secular resonances, the impact rates with the terrestrial planets decrease beyond a few million years, whereas the impact rate on the Sun remains roughly constant.

  15. Evolution of probability measures by cellular automata on algebraic topological Markov chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ALEJANDRO MAASS

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we review some recent results on the evolution of probability measures under cellular automata acting on a fullshift. In particular we discuss the crucial role of the attractiveness of maximal measures. We enlarge the context of the results of a previous study of topological Markov chains that are Abelian groups; the shift map is an automorphism of this group. This is carried out by studying the dynamics of Markov measures by a particular additive cellular automata. Many of these topics were within the focus of Francisco Varela's mathematical interests.

  16. Focusing on a Probability Element: Parameter Selection of Message Importance Measure in Big Data

    OpenAIRE

    She, Rui; Liu, Shanyun; Dong, Yunquan; Fan, Pingyi

    2017-01-01

    Message importance measure (MIM) is applicable to characterize the importance of information in the scenario of big data, similar to entropy in information theory. In fact, MIM with a variable parameter can make an effect on the characterization of distribution. Furthermore, by choosing an appropriate parameter of MIM,it is possible to emphasize the message importance of a certain probability element in a distribution. Therefore, parametric MIM can play a vital role in anomaly detection of bi...

  17. Measurement of K-electron capture probability in the decay of 87Y

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prasad, N.V.S.V.; Murty, G.S.K.; Rao, M.V.S.C.; Sastry, D.L.

    1993-01-01

    The K-electron capture probability for the 1/2 - to 3/2 - transition in the decay of 87 Y to the 873.0 keV level in the daughter 87 Sr was measured for the first time using an x-γ summing method. The experimental P K value was found to be 0.911 ± 0.047, in agreement with the theoretical value of 0.878. (author)

  18. Measurement of K-electron capture probability in the decay of [sup 87]Y

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prasad, N.V.S.V.; Murty, G.S.K.; Rao, M.V.S.C.; Sastry, D.L. (Andhra Univ., Visakhapatnam (India). Labs. for Nuclear Research); Chintalapudi, S.N. (Inter University Consortium for DAE Facilities, Calcutta (India))

    1993-04-01

    The K-electron capture probability for the 1/2[sup -] to 3/2[sup -]transition in the decay of [sup 87]Y to the 873.0 keV level in the daughter [sup 87]Sr was measured for the first time using an x-[gamma] summing method. The experimental P[sub K] value was found to be 0.911 [+-] 0.047, in agreement with the theoretical value of 0.878. (author).

  19. Measurement of vacancy transfer probability from K to L shell using ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    73, No. 4. — journal of. October 2009 physics pp. 711–718. Measurement of vacancy transfer probability from K to L shell using K-shell fluorescence yields. ¨O S¨O˘GÜT1,∗, E BÜYÜKKASAP2, A KÜC¸ ÜK¨ONDER1 and T TARAKC¸ IO ˇGLU1. 1Department of Physics, Faculty of Science and Letters, Kahramanmaras Sütçü ˙ ...

  20. Robust estimation of the expected survival probabilities from high-dimensional Cox models with biomarker-by-treatment interactions in randomized clinical trials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nils Ternès

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Thanks to the advances in genomics and targeted treatments, more and more prediction models based on biomarkers are being developed to predict potential benefit from treatments in a randomized clinical trial. Despite the methodological framework for the development and validation of prediction models in a high-dimensional setting is getting more and more established, no clear guidance exists yet on how to estimate expected survival probabilities in a penalized model with biomarker-by-treatment interactions. Methods Based on a parsimonious biomarker selection in a penalized high-dimensional Cox model (lasso or adaptive lasso, we propose a unified framework to: estimate internally the predictive accuracy metrics of the developed model (using double cross-validation; estimate the individual survival probabilities at a given timepoint; construct confidence intervals thereof (analytical or bootstrap; and visualize them graphically (pointwise or smoothed with spline. We compared these strategies through a simulation study covering scenarios with or without biomarker effects. We applied the strategies to a large randomized phase III clinical trial that evaluated the effect of adding trastuzumab to chemotherapy in 1574 early breast cancer patients, for which the expression of 462 genes was measured. Results In our simulations, penalized regression models using the adaptive lasso estimated the survival probability of new patients with low bias and standard error; bootstrapped confidence intervals had empirical coverage probability close to the nominal level across very different scenarios. The double cross-validation performed on the training data set closely mimicked the predictive accuracy of the selected models in external validation data. We also propose a useful visual representation of the expected survival probabilities using splines. In the breast cancer trial, the adaptive lasso penalty selected a prediction model with 4

  1. The reward probability index: design and validation of a scale measuring access to environmental reward.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho, John P; Gawrysiak, Michael J; Hellmuth, Julianne C; McNulty, James K; Magidson, Jessica F; Lejuez, C W; Hopko, Derek R

    2011-06-01

    Behavioral models of depression implicate decreased response-contingent positive reinforcement (RCPR) as critical toward the development and maintenance of depression (Lewinsohn, 1974). Given the absence of a psychometrically sound self-report measure of RCPR, the Reward Probability Index (RPI) was developed to measure access to environmental reward and to approximate actual RCPR. In Study 1 (n=269), exploratory factor analysis supported a 20-item two-factor model (Reward Probability, Environmental Suppressors) with strong internal consistency (α=.90). In Study 2 (n=281), confirmatory factor analysis supported this two-factor structure and convergent validity was established through strong correlations between the RPI and measures of activity, avoidance, reinforcement, and depression (r=.65 to .81). Discriminant validity was supported via smaller correlations between the RPI and measures of social support and somatic anxiety (r=-.29 to -.40). Two-week test-retest reliability was strong (r=.69). In Study 3 (n=33), controlling for depression symptoms, hierarchical regression supported the incremental validity of the RPI in predicting daily diary reports of environmental reward. The RPI represents a parsimonious, reliable, and valid measure that may facilitate understanding of the etiology of depression and its relationship to overt behaviors. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  2. Audio Query by Example Using Similarity Measures between Probability Density Functions of Features

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marko Helén

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a query by example system for generic audio. We estimate the similarity of the example signal and the samples in the queried database by calculating the distance between the probability density functions (pdfs of their frame-wise acoustic features. Since the features are continuous valued, we propose to model them using Gaussian mixture models (GMMs or hidden Markov models (HMMs. The models parametrize each sample efficiently and retain sufficient information for similarity measurement. To measure the distance between the models, we apply a novel Euclidean distance, approximations of Kullback-Leibler divergence, and a cross-likelihood ratio test. The performance of the measures was tested in simulations where audio samples are automatically retrieved from a general audio database, based on the estimated similarity to a user-provided example. The simulations show that the distance between probability density functions is an accurate measure for similarity. Measures based on GMMs or HMMs are shown to produce better results than that of the existing methods based on simpler statistics or histograms of the features. A good performance with low computational cost is obtained with the proposed Euclidean distance.

  3. To Measure Probable Physical Changes On The Earth During Total Solar Eclipse Using Geophysical Methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gocmen, C.

    2007-01-01

    When the total solar eclipse came into question, people connected the eclipse with the earthquake dated 17.08.1999. We thought if any physical parameters change during total solar eclipse on the earth, we could measure this changing and we did the project 'To Measure Probable Physical Changes On The Earth During Total Solar Eclipse Using Geophysical Methods' We did gravity, magnetic and self-potential measurements at Konya and Ankara during total solar eclipse (29, March, 2006) and the day before eclipse and the day after eclipse. The measurements went on three days continuously twenty-four hours at Konya and daytime in Ankara. Bogazici University Kandilli Observatory gave us magnetic values in Istanbul and we compare the values with our magnetic values. Turkish State Meteorological Service sent us temperature and air pressure observations during three days, in Konya and Ankara. We interpreted all of them

  4. Precise lim sup behavior of probabilities of large deviations for sums of i.i.d. random variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Rosalsky

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available Let {X,Xn;n≥1} be a sequence of real-valued i.i.d. random variables and let Sn=∑i=1nXi, n≥1. In this paper, we study the probabilities of large deviations of the form P(Sn>tn1/p, P(Sntn1/p, where t>0 and 0x1/p/ϕ(x=1, then for every t>0, limsupn→∞P(|Sn|>tn1/p/(nϕ(n=tpα.

  5. Measurement of Plutonium-240 Angular Momentum Dependent Fission Probabilities Using the Alpha-Alpha' Reaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koglin, Johnathon

    Accurate nuclear reaction data from a few keV to tens of MeV and across the table of nuclides is essential to a number of applications of nuclear physics, including national security, nuclear forensics, nuclear astrophysics, and nuclear energy. Precise determination of (n, f) and neutron capture cross sections for reactions in high- ux environments are particularly important for a proper understanding of nuclear reactor performance and stellar nucleosynthesis. In these extreme environments reactions on short-lived and otherwise difficult-to-produce isotopes play a significant role in system evolution and provide insights into the types of nuclear processes taking place; a detailed understanding of these processes is necessary to properly determine cross sections far from stability. Indirect methods are often attempted to measure cross sections on isotopes that are difficult to separate in a laboratory setting. Using the surrogate approach, the same compound nucleus from the reaction of interest is created through a "surrogate" reaction on a different isotope and the resulting decay is measured. This result is combined with appropriate reaction theory for compound nucleus population, from which the desired cross sections can be inferred. This method has shown promise, but the theoretical framework often lacks necessary experimental data to constrain models. In this work, dual arrays of silicon telescope particle identification detectors and photovoltaic (solar) cell fission fragment detectors have been used to measure the fission probability of the 240Pu(alpha, alpha'f) reaction - a surrogate for the 239Pu(n, f) - and fission of 35.9(2)MeV at eleven scattering angles from 40° to 140° in 10° intervals and at nuclear excitation energies up to 16MeV. Within experimental uncertainty, the maximum fission probability was observed at the neutron separation energy for each alpha scattering angle. Fission probabilities were separated into five 500 keV bins from 5:5MeV to

  6. Weak convergence to isotropic complex [Formula: see text] random measure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jun; Li, Yunmeng; Sang, Liheng

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we prove that an isotropic complex symmetric α -stable random measure ([Formula: see text]) can be approximated by a complex process constructed by integrals based on the Poisson process with random intensity.

  7. Measurement on K-electron capture probability in the decay of {sup 97}Ru

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kalayani, V.D.M.L.; Vara Prasad, N.V.S.; Chandrasekhar Rao, M.V.S.; Satyanarayana, G.; Sastry, D.L. [Swami Jnanananda Laboratories for Nuclear Research, Andhra University, Visakhapatnam (India); Chintalapudi, S.N. [Inter University Consortium for DEA Facililities, Calcutta (India)

    1999-08-01

    The K-electron capture probabilities of two strong allowed transitions 5/2{sup +}{yields}5/2{sup +} and 5/2{sup +}{yields}7/2{sup +} were measured in the decay of {sup 97}Ru employing the X-{gamma} internal summing technique. The two P{sub K} experimental values were found to be 0.884{+-}0.046 and 0.886{+-}0.018 in agreement with the theoretical values 0.878 and 0.878, respectively. The theoretical values are seen to be insensitive for Q{sub EC} values above 200 keV.

  8. Measurement on K-electron capture probability in the decay of 97Ru

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kalayani, V.D.M.L.; Vara Prasad, N.V.S.; Chandrasekhar Rao, M.V.S.; Satyanarayana, G.; Sastry, D.L.; Chintalapudi, S.N.

    1999-01-01

    The K-electron capture probabilities of two strong allowed transitions 5/2 + →5/2 + and 5/2 + →7/2 + were measured in the decay of 97 Ru employing the X-γ internal summing technique. The two P K experimental values were found to be 0.884±0.046 and 0.886±0.018 in agreement with the theoretical values 0.878 and 0.878, respectively. The theoretical values are seen to be insensitive for Q EC values above 200 keV

  9. On Randomness and Probability

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    An axiomatic development of such a model is given below. It is also shown ... teacher needs to decide which students deserve to be promoted to the next class - it is not ... whether an unborn child would be a boy or a girl, the total number of births in a ..... that the outcome of the previous trials has no influence on the next trial.

  10. Inference for binomial probability based on dependent Bernoulli random variables with applications to meta‐analysis and group level studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakbergenuly, Ilyas; Morgenthaler, Stephan

    2016-01-01

    We study bias arising as a result of nonlinear transformations of random variables in random or mixed effects models and its effect on inference in group‐level studies or in meta‐analysis. The findings are illustrated on the example of overdispersed binomial distributions, where we demonstrate considerable biases arising from standard log‐odds and arcsine transformations of the estimated probability p^, both for single‐group studies and in combining results from several groups or studies in meta‐analysis. Our simulations confirm that these biases are linear in ρ, for small values of ρ, the intracluster correlation coefficient. These biases do not depend on the sample sizes or the number of studies K in a meta‐analysis and result in abysmal coverage of the combined effect for large K. We also propose bias‐correction for the arcsine transformation. Our simulations demonstrate that this bias‐correction works well for small values of the intraclass correlation. The methods are applied to two examples of meta‐analyses of prevalence. PMID:27192062

  11. Inference for binomial probability based on dependent Bernoulli random variables with applications to meta-analysis and group level studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakbergenuly, Ilyas; Kulinskaya, Elena; Morgenthaler, Stephan

    2016-07-01

    We study bias arising as a result of nonlinear transformations of random variables in random or mixed effects models and its effect on inference in group-level studies or in meta-analysis. The findings are illustrated on the example of overdispersed binomial distributions, where we demonstrate considerable biases arising from standard log-odds and arcsine transformations of the estimated probability p̂, both for single-group studies and in combining results from several groups or studies in meta-analysis. Our simulations confirm that these biases are linear in ρ, for small values of ρ, the intracluster correlation coefficient. These biases do not depend on the sample sizes or the number of studies K in a meta-analysis and result in abysmal coverage of the combined effect for large K. We also propose bias-correction for the arcsine transformation. Our simulations demonstrate that this bias-correction works well for small values of the intraclass correlation. The methods are applied to two examples of meta-analyses of prevalence. © 2016 The Authors. Biometrical Journal Published by Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA.

  12. Continuous time random walk model with asymptotical probability density of waiting times via inverse Mittag-Leffler function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Yingjie; Chen, Wen

    2018-04-01

    The mean squared displacement (MSD) of the traditional ultraslow diffusion is a logarithmic function of time. Recently, the continuous time random walk model is employed to characterize this ultraslow diffusion dynamics by connecting the heavy-tailed logarithmic function and its variation as the asymptotical waiting time density. In this study we investigate the limiting waiting time density of a general ultraslow diffusion model via the inverse Mittag-Leffler function, whose special case includes the traditional logarithmic ultraslow diffusion model. The MSD of the general ultraslow diffusion model is analytically derived as an inverse Mittag-Leffler function, and is observed to increase even more slowly than that of the logarithmic function model. The occurrence of very long waiting time in the case of the inverse Mittag-Leffler function has the largest probability compared with the power law model and the logarithmic function model. The Monte Carlo simulations of one dimensional sample path of a single particle are also performed. The results show that the inverse Mittag-Leffler waiting time density is effective in depicting the general ultraslow random motion.

  13. Measuring sensitivity in pharmacoeconomic studies. Refining point sensitivity and range sensitivity by incorporating probability distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nuijten, M J

    1999-07-01

    The aim of the present study is to describe a refinement of a previously presented method, based on the concept of point sensitivity, to deal with uncertainty in economic studies. The original method was refined by the incorporation of probability distributions which allow a more accurate assessment of the level of uncertainty in the model. In addition, a bootstrap method was used to create a probability distribution for a fixed input variable based on a limited number of data points. The original method was limited in that the sensitivity measurement was based on a uniform distribution of the variables and that the overall sensitivity measure was based on a subjectively chosen range which excludes the impact of values outside the range on the overall sensitivity. The concepts of the refined method were illustrated using a Markov model of depression. The application of the refined method substantially changed the ranking of the most sensitive variables compared with the original method. The response rate became the most sensitive variable instead of the 'per diem' for hospitalisation. The refinement of the original method yields sensitivity outcomes, which greater reflect the real uncertainty in economic studies.

  14. Measurement of transition probabilities in Kr II UV and visible spectral lines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mar, S; Val, J A del; RodrIguez, F; Pelaez, R J; Gonzalez, V R; Gonzalo, A B; Castro, A de; Aparicio, J A

    2006-01-01

    This work reports an extensive collection of 120 atomic transition probabilities of Kr II lines in the spectral region 350-720 nm, all of them measured in an emission experiment. For many of them, these are the first data up to the authors' knowledge. Relative intensity measurements have been obtained on a pulsed discharge lamp and the absolute A ki -values have been calculated by considering the available data from the literature as reference for the plasma temperature diagnosis. Excitation temperature (14 000-28 000 K) has been determined by using the Boltzmann-plot method. The plasma electron density (0.2-0.8 x 10 23 m -3 ) has been determined by two-wavelength interferometry. This work extends a previous one already published by our laboratory [1, 2]. Comparisons have also been made with previous literature values

  15. Reliability assessment for thickness measurements of pipe wall using probability of detection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakamoto, Hiroyuki; Kojima, Fumio; Kato, Sho

    2013-01-01

    This paper proposes a reliability assessment method for thickness measurements of pipe wall using probability of detection (POD). Thicknesses of pipes are measured by qualified inspectors with ultrasonic thickness gauges. The inspection results are affected by human factors of the inspectors and include some errors, because the inspectors have different experiences and frequency of inspections. In order to ensure reliability for inspection results, first, POD evaluates experimental results of pipe-wall thickness inspection. We verify that the results have differences depending on inspectors including qualified inspectors. Second, two human factors that affect POD are indicated. Finally, it is confirmed that POD can identify the human factors and ensure reliability for pipe-wall thickness inspections. (author)

  16. The Bayesian count rate probability distribution in measurement of ionizing radiation by use of a ratemeter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weise, K.

    2004-06-01

    Recent metrological developments concerning measurement uncertainty, founded on Bayesian statistics, give rise to a revision of several parts of the DIN 25482 and ISO 11929 standard series. These series stipulate detection limits and decision thresholds for ionizing-radiation measurements. Part 3 and, respectively, part 4 of them deal with measurements by use of linear-scale analogue ratemeters. A normal frequency distribution of the momentary ratemeter indication for a fixed count rate value is assumed. The actual distribution, which is first calculated numerically by solving an integral equation, differs, however, considerably from the normal distribution although this one represents an approximation of it for sufficiently large values of the count rate to be measured. As is shown, this similarly holds true for the Bayesian probability distribution of the count rate for sufficiently large given measured values indicated by the ratemeter. This distribution follows from the first one mentioned by means of the Bayes theorem. Its expectation value and variance are needed for the standards to be revised on the basis of Bayesian statistics. Simple expressions are given by the present standards for estimating these parameters and for calculating the detection limit and the decision threshold. As is also shown, the same expressions can similarly be used as sufficient approximations by the revised standards if, roughly, the present indicated value exceeds the reciprocal ratemeter relaxation time constant. (orig.)

  17. Measurement of the resonance escape probability; Mesure de l'absorption resonnante

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anthony, J P; Bacher, P; Lheureux, L; Moreau, J; Schmitt, A P [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique, Saclay (France). Centre d' Etudes Nucleaires

    1957-07-01

    The average cadmium ratio in natural uranium rods has been measured, using equal diameter natural uranium disks. These values correlated with independent measurements of the lattice buckling, enabled us to calculate values of the resonance escape probability for the G1 reactor with one or the other of two definitions. Measurements were performed on 26 mm and 32 mm rods, giving the following values for the resonance escape probability p: 0.8976 {+-} 0.005 and 0.912 {+-} 0.006 (d. 26 mm), 0.8627 {+-} 0.009 and 0.884 {+-} 0.01 (d. 32 mm). The influence of either definition on the lattice parameters is discussed, leading to values of the effective integral. Similar experiments have been performed with thorium rods. (author) [French] Nous avons mesure le rapport cadmium moyen dans des barres d'uranium a l'aide de disques d'uranium naturel de meme diametre que ces dernieres. Ces mesures nous ont permis, conjointement avec des mesures de Laplacien du reseau, de determiner deux facteurs antitrappes du reacteur G1 correspondant a deux definitions exposees. Les mesures ont ete faites sur deux diametres de barres 26 et 32 mm. Resultats: 0.8976 {+-} 0.005 and 0.912 {+-} 0.006 (d. 26 mm), 0.8627 {+-} 0.009 and 0.884 {+-} 0.01 (d. 32 mm). L'influence de ces deux definitions sur les divers parametres du reseau, est discutee. La determination de 'p' pour un diametre de barres d'uranium de 26 mm, et les mesures de variation de Laplacien, nous ont permis de calculer une valeur de l'integrale effective correspondant a chaque definition. Les mesures analogues faites sur des barres de thorium sont egalement indiquees. (auteur)

  18. The correlation of defect distribution in collisional phase with measured cascade collapse probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morishita, K.; Ishino, S.; Sekimura, N.

    1995-01-01

    The spatial distributions of atomic displacement at the end of the collisional phase of cascade damage processes were calculated using the computer simulation code MARLOWE, which is based on the binary collision approximation (BCA). The densities of the atomic displacement were evaluated in high dense regions (HDRs) of cascades in several pure metals (Fe, Ni, Cu, Ag, Au, Mo and W). They were compared with the measured cascade collapse probabilities reported in the literature where TEM observations were carried out using thin metal foils irradiated by low-dose ions at room temperature. We found that there exists the minimum or ''critical'' values of the atomic displacement densities for the HDR to collapse into TEM-visible vacancy clusters. The critical densities are generally independent of the cascade energy in the same metal. Furthermore, the material dependence of the critical densities can be explained by the difference in the vacancy mobility at the melting temperature of target materials. This critical density calibration, which is extracted from the ion-irradiation experiments and the BCA simulations, is applied to estimation of cascade collapse probabilities in the metals irradiated by fusion neutrons. (orig.)

  19. Analysis of femtosecond pump-probe photoelectron-photoion coincidence measurements applying Bayesian probability theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rumetshofer, M.; Heim, P.; Thaler, B.; Ernst, W. E.; Koch, M.; von der Linden, W.

    2018-06-01

    Ultrafast dynamical processes in photoexcited molecules can be observed with pump-probe measurements, in which information about the dynamics is obtained from the transient signal associated with the excited state. Background signals provoked by pump and/or probe pulses alone often obscure these excited-state signals. Simple subtraction of pump-only and/or probe-only measurements from the pump-probe measurement, as commonly applied, results in a degradation of the signal-to-noise ratio and, in the case of coincidence detection, the danger of overrated background subtraction. Coincidence measurements additionally suffer from false coincidences, requiring long data-acquisition times to keep erroneous signals at an acceptable level. Here we present a probabilistic approach based on Bayesian probability theory that overcomes these problems. For a pump-probe experiment with photoelectron-photoion coincidence detection, we reconstruct the interesting excited-state spectrum from pump-probe and pump-only measurements. This approach allows us to treat background and false coincidences consistently and on the same footing. We demonstrate that the Bayesian formalism has the following advantages over simple signal subtraction: (i) the signal-to-noise ratio is significantly increased, (ii) the pump-only contribution is not overestimated, (iii) false coincidences are excluded, (iv) prior knowledge, such as positivity, is consistently incorporated, (v) confidence intervals are provided for the reconstructed spectrum, and (vi) it is applicable to any experimental situation and noise statistics. Most importantly, by accounting for false coincidences, the Bayesian approach allows us to run experiments at higher ionization rates, resulting in a significant reduction of data acquisition times. The probabilistic approach is thoroughly scrutinized by challenging mock data. The application to pump-probe coincidence measurements on acetone molecules enables quantitative interpretations

  20. Using complete measurement statistics for optimal device-independent randomness evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nieto-Silleras, O; Pironio, S; Silman, J

    2014-01-01

    The majority of recent works investigating the link between non-locality and randomness, e.g. in the context of device-independent cryptography, do so with respect to some specific Bell inequality, usually the CHSH inequality. However, the joint probabilities characterizing the measurement outcomes of a Bell test are richer than just the degree of violation of a single Bell inequality. In this work we show how to take this extra information into account in a systematic manner in order to optimally evaluate the randomness that can be certified from non-local correlations. We further show that taking into account the complete set of outcome probabilities is equivalent to optimizing over all possible Bell inequalities, thereby allowing us to determine the optimal Bell inequality for certifying the maximal amount of randomness from a given set of non-local correlations. (paper)

  1. Half-life measurements and photon emission probabilities of frequently applied radioisotopes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schoetzig, U.; Schrader, H.

    1998-09-01

    It belongs to the duties of the PTB department for 'Radioactivity' to determine the radioactivity emitted by radioactive radiation sources and publish their specific decay data, also called ''standards'', so that appliers of such sources may calibrate their equipment accordingly, as e.g. photon detectors. Further data required for proper calibration are those defining the photon emission probability per decay, P(E), at the relevant photon energy E. The emission rate R(E) is derived from the activity A, by the calculus R(E)=A x P(E), and the half-lives of decay, T 1 /2, together with the standards are used for determining the time of measurement. The calibration quality essentially is determined by those two parameters and the incertainties involved. The PTB 'Radioactivity' department therefore publishes for users recommended decay data elaborated and used by the experts at PTB. The tabulated data are either measured at PTB, or critically selected from data compilations of other publication sources. The tabulated decay data presented here are intended to serve as a source of reference for laboratory work and should be used in combination with the comprehensive data collections available (see the bibliography of this document: 86BRFI, 91TECD, 96FI, Nuclear Data Sheets, e.g. 98ND84). (orig./CB) [de

  2. Positive random variables with a discrete probability mass at the origin: Parameter estimation for left-censored samples with application to air quality monitoring data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gogolak, C.V.

    1986-11-01

    The concentration of a contaminant measured in a particular medium might be distributed as a positive random variable when it is present, but it may not always be present. If there is a level below which the concentration cannot be distinguished from zero by the analytical apparatus, a sample from such a population will be censored on the left. The presence of both zeros and positive values in the censored portion of such samples complicates the problem of estimating the parameters of the underlying positive random variable and the probability of a zero observation. Using the method of maximum likelihood, it is shown that the solution to this estimation problem reduces largely to that of estimating the parameters of the distribution truncated at the point of censorship. The maximum likelihood estimate of the proportion of zero values follows directly. The derivation of the maximum likelihood estimates for a lognormal population with zeros is given in detail, and the asymptotic properties of the estimates are examined. The estimation method was used to fit several different distributions to a set of severely censored 85 Kr monitoring data from six locations at the Savannah River Plant chemical separations facilities

  3. Physical Activity Improves Verbal and Spatial Memory in Older Adults with Probable Mild Cognitive Impairment: A 6-Month Randomized Controlled Trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lindsay S. Nagamatsu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We report secondary findings from a randomized controlled trial on the effects of exercise on memory in older adults with probable MCI. We randomized 86 women aged 70–80 years with subjective memory complaints into one of three groups: resistance training, aerobic training, or balance and tone (control. All participants exercised twice per week for six months. We measured verbal memory and learning using the Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Test (RAVLT and spatial memory using a computerized test, before and after trial completion. We found that the aerobic training group remembered significantly more items in the loss after interference condition of the RAVLT compared with the control group after six months of training. In addition, both experimental groups showed improved spatial memory performance in the most difficult condition where they were required to memorize the spatial location of three items, compared with the control group. Lastly, we found a significant correlation between spatial memory performance and overall physical capacity after intervention in the aerobic training group. Taken together, our results provide support for the prevailing notion that exercise can positively impact cognitive functioning and may represent an effective strategy to improve memory in those who have begun to experience cognitive decline.

  4. Ruin probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asmussen, Søren; Albrecher, Hansjörg

    The book gives a comprehensive treatment of the classical and modern ruin probability theory. Some of the topics are Lundberg's inequality, the Cramér-Lundberg approximation, exact solutions, other approximations (e.g., for heavy-tailed claim size distributions), finite horizon ruin probabilities......, extensions of the classical compound Poisson model to allow for reserve-dependent premiums, Markov-modulation, periodicity, change of measure techniques, phase-type distributions as a computational vehicle and the connection to other applied probability areas, like queueing theory. In this substantially...... updated and extended second version, new topics include stochastic control, fluctuation theory for Levy processes, Gerber–Shiu functions and dependence....

  5. Measurements of atomic transition probabilities in highly ionized atoms by fast ion beams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinson, I.; Curtis, L.J.; Lindgaerd, A.

    1977-01-01

    A summary is given of the beam-foil method by which level lifetimes and transition probabilities can be determined in atoms and ions. Results are presented for systems of particular interest for fusion research, such as the Li, Be, Na, Mg, Cu and Zn isoelectronic sequences. The available experimental material is compared to theoretical transition probabilities. (author)

  6. Experimental nonlocality-based randomness generation with nonprojective measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez, S.; Mattar, A.; Gómez, E. S.; Cavalcanti, D.; Farías, O. Jiménez; Acín, A.; Lima, G.

    2018-04-01

    We report on an optical setup generating more than one bit of randomness from one entangled bit (i.e., a maximally entangled state of two qubits). The amount of randomness is certified through the observation of Bell nonlocal correlations. To attain this result we implemented a high-purity entanglement source and a nonprojective three-outcome measurement. Our implementation achieves a gain of 27% of randomness as compared with the standard methods using projective measurements. Additionally, we estimate the amount of randomness certified in a one-sided device-independent scenario, through the observation of Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen steering. Our results prove that nonprojective quantum measurements allow extending the limits for nonlocality-based certified randomness generation using current technology.

  7. Model uncertainty and probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parry, G.W.

    1994-01-01

    This paper discusses the issue of model uncertainty. The use of probability as a measure of an analyst's uncertainty as well as a means of describing random processes has caused some confusion, even though the two uses are representing different types of uncertainty with respect to modeling a system. The importance of maintaining the distinction between the two types is illustrated with a simple example

  8. Covariance-Based Estimation from Multisensor Delayed Measurements with Random Parameter Matrices and Correlated Noises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Caballero-Águila

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The optimal least-squares linear estimation problem is addressed for a class of discrete-time multisensor linear stochastic systems subject to randomly delayed measurements with different delay rates. For each sensor, a different binary sequence is used to model the delay process. The measured outputs are perturbed by both random parameter matrices and one-step autocorrelated and cross correlated noises. Using an innovation approach, computationally simple recursive algorithms are obtained for the prediction, filtering, and smoothing problems, without requiring full knowledge of the state-space model generating the signal process, but only the information provided by the delay probabilities and the mean and covariance functions of the processes (signal, random parameter matrices, and noises involved in the observation model. The accuracy of the estimators is measured by their error covariance matrices, which allow us to analyze the estimator performance in a numerical simulation example that illustrates the feasibility of the proposed algorithms.

  9. Digital simulation of two-dimensional random fields with arbitrary power spectra and non-Gaussian probability distribution functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yura, Harold; Hanson, Steen Grüner

    2012-01-01

    with the desired spectral distribution, after which this colored Gaussian probability distribution is transformed via an inverse transform into the desired probability distribution. In most cases the method provides satisfactory results and can thus be considered an engineering approach. Several illustrative...

  10. Production of 147Eu for gamma-ray emission probability measurement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Katoh, Keiji; Marnada, Nada; Miyahara, Hiroshi

    2002-01-01

    Gamma-ray emission probability is one of the most important decay parameters of radionuclide and many researchers are paying efforts to improve the certainty of it. The certainties of γ-ray emission probabilities for neutron-rich nuclides are being improved little by little, but the improvements of those for proton-rich nuclides are still insufficient. Europium-147 that decays by electron capture or β + -particle emission is a proton-rich nuclide and the γ-ray emission probabilities evaluated by Mateosian and Peker have large uncertainties. They referred to only one report concerning with γ-ray emission probabilities. Our final purpose is to determine the precise γ-ray emission probabilities of 147 Eu from disintegration rates and γ-ray intensities by using a 4πβ-γ coincidence apparatus. Impurity nuclides affect largely to the determination of disintegration rate; therefore, a highly pure 147 Eu source is required. This short note will describe the most proper energy for 147 Eu production through 147 Sm(p, n) reaction. (author)

  11. Upgrading Probability via Fractions of Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frič Roman

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The influence of “Grundbegriffe” by A. N. Kolmogorov (published in 1933 on education in the area of probability and its impact on research in stochastics cannot be overestimated. We would like to point out three aspects of the classical probability theory “calling for” an upgrade: (i classical random events are black-and-white (Boolean; (ii classical random variables do not model quantum phenomena; (iii basic maps (probability measures and observables { dual maps to random variables have very different “mathematical nature”. Accordingly, we propose an upgraded probability theory based on Łukasiewicz operations (multivalued logic on events, elementary category theory, and covering the classical probability theory as a special case. The upgrade can be compared to replacing calculations with integers by calculations with rational (and real numbers. Namely, to avoid the three objections, we embed the classical (Boolean random events (represented by the f0; 1g-valued indicator functions of sets into upgraded random events (represented by measurable {0; 1}-valued functions, the minimal domain of probability containing “fractions” of classical random events, and we upgrade the notions of probability measure and random variable.

  12. Concepts of probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    Pfeiffer, Paul E

    1979-01-01

    Using the Kolmogorov model, this intermediate-level text discusses random variables, probability distributions, mathematical expectation, random processes, more. For advanced undergraduates students of science, engineering, or math. Includes problems with answers and six appendixes. 1965 edition.

  13. Measuring inequity aversion in a heterogeneous population using experimental decisions and subjective probabilities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bellemare, C.; Kroger, S.; van Soest, A.H.O.

    2008-01-01

    We combine choice data in the ultimatum game with the expectations of proposers elicited by subjective probability questions to estimate a structural model of decision making under uncertainty. The model, estimated using a large representative sample of subjects from the Dutch population, allows

  14. α-Cut method based importance measure for criticality analysis in fuzzy probability – Based fault tree analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Purba, Julwan Hendry; Sony Tjahyani, D.T.; Widodo, Surip; Tjahjono, Hendro

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: •FPFTA deals with epistemic uncertainty using fuzzy probability. •Criticality analysis is important for reliability improvement. •An α-cut method based importance measure is proposed for criticality analysis in FPFTA. •The α-cut method based importance measure utilises α-cut multiplication, α-cut subtraction, and area defuzzification technique. •Benchmarking confirm that the proposed method is feasible for criticality analysis in FPFTA. -- Abstract: Fuzzy probability – based fault tree analysis (FPFTA) has been recently developed and proposed to deal with the limitations of conventional fault tree analysis. In FPFTA, reliabilities of basic events, intermediate events and top event are characterized by fuzzy probabilities. Furthermore, the quantification of the FPFTA is based on fuzzy multiplication rule and fuzzy complementation rule to propagate uncertainties from basic event to the top event. Since the objective of the fault tree analysis is to improve the reliability of the system being evaluated, it is necessary to find the weakest path in the system. For this purpose, criticality analysis can be implemented. Various importance measures, which are based on conventional probabilities, have been developed and proposed for criticality analysis in fault tree analysis. However, not one of those importance measures can be applied for criticality analysis in FPFTA, which is based on fuzzy probability. To be fully applied in nuclear power plant probabilistic safety assessment, FPFTA needs to have its corresponding importance measure. The objective of this study is to develop an α-cut method based importance measure to evaluate and rank the importance of basic events for criticality analysis in FPFTA. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed measure, a case study is performed and its results are then benchmarked to the results generated by the four well known importance measures in conventional fault tree analysis. The results

  15. Accounting for randomness in measurement and sampling in studying cancer cell population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghavami, Siavash; Wolkenhauer, Olaf; Lahouti, Farshad; Ullah, Mukhtar; Linnebacher, Michael

    2014-10-01

    Knowing the expected temporal evolution of the proportion of different cell types in sample tissues gives an indication about the progression of the disease and its possible response to drugs. Such systems have been modelled using Markov processes. We here consider an experimentally realistic scenario in which transition probabilities are estimated from noisy cell population size measurements. Using aggregated data of FACS measurements, we develop MMSE and ML estimators and formulate two problems to find the minimum number of required samples and measurements to guarantee the accuracy of predicted population sizes. Our numerical results show that the convergence mechanism of transition probabilities and steady states differ widely from the real values if one uses the standard deterministic approach for noisy measurements. This provides support for our argument that for the analysis of FACS data one should consider the observed state as a random variable. The second problem we address is about the consequences of estimating the probability of a cell being in a particular state from measurements of small population of cells. We show how the uncertainty arising from small sample sizes can be captured by a distribution for the state probability.

  16. The Reliability of Randomly Generated Math Curriculum-Based Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strait, Gerald G.; Smith, Bradley H.; Pender, Carolyn; Malone, Patrick S.; Roberts, Jarod; Hall, John D.

    2015-01-01

    "Curriculum-Based Measurement" (CBM) is a direct method of academic assessment used to screen and evaluate students' skills and monitor their responses to academic instruction and intervention. Interventioncentral.org offers a math worksheet generator at no cost that creates randomly generated "math curriculum-based measures"…

  17. Measuring survival time: a probability-based approach useful in healthcare decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    In some clinical situations, the choice between treatment options takes into account their impact on patient survival time. Due to practical constraints (such as loss to follow-up), survival time is usually estimated using a probability calculation based on data obtained in clinical studies or trials. The two techniques most commonly used to estimate survival times are the Kaplan-Meier method and the actuarial method. Despite their limitations, they provide useful information when choosing between treatment options.

  18. Scattering analysis of point processes and random measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanisch, K.H.

    1984-01-01

    In the present paper scattering analysis of point processes and random measures is studied. Known formulae which connect the scattering intensity with the pair distribution function of the studied structures are proved in a rigorous manner with tools of the theory of point processes and random measures. For some special fibre processes the scattering intensity is computed. For a class of random measures, namely for 'grain-germ-models', a new formula is proved which yields the pair distribution function of the 'grain-germ-model' in terms of the pair distribution function of the underlying point process (the 'germs') and of the mean structure factor and the mean squared structure factor of the particles (the 'grains'). (author)

  19. First simultaneous measurement of fission and gamma probabilities of 237U and 239Np via surrogate reactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marini P.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Fission and gamma decay probabilities of 237U and 239Np have been measured, for the first time simultaneously in dedicated experiments, via the surrogate reactions 238U(3He, 4He and 238U(3He,d, respectively. While a good agreement between our data and neutron-induced data is found for fission probabilities, gamma decay probabilities are several times higher than the corresponding neutron-induced data for each studied nucleus. We study the role of the different spin distributions populated in the surrogate and neutron-induced reactions. The compound nucleus spin distribution populated in the surrogate reaction is extracted from the measured gamma-decay probabilities, and used as input parameter in the statistical model to predict fission probabilities to be compared to our data. A strong disagreement between our data and the prediction is obtained. Preliminary results from an additional dedicated experiment confirm the observed discrepancies, indicating the need of a better understanding of the formation and decay processes of the compound nucleus.

  20. Concentration inequalities for functions of Gibbs fields with application to diffraction and random Gibbs measures

    CERN Document Server

    Külske, C

    2003-01-01

    We derive useful general concentration inequalities for functions of Gibbs fields in the uniqueness regime. We also consider expectations of random Gibbs measures that depend on an additional disorder field, and prove concentration w.r.t the disorder field. Both fields are assumed to be in the uniqueness regime, allowing in particular for non-independent disorder field. The modification of the bounds compared to the case of an independent field can be expressed in terms of constants that resemble the Dobrushin contraction coefficient, and are explicitly computable. On the basis of these inequalities, we obtain bounds on the deviation of a diffraction pattern created by random scatterers located on a general discrete point set in the Euclidean space, restricted to a finite volume. Here we also allow for thermal dislocations of the scatterers around their equilibrium positions. Extending recent results for independent scatterers, we give a universal upper bound on the probability of a deviation of the random sc...

  1. Contribution of correlated noise and selective decoding to choice probability measurements in extrastriate visual cortex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Yong; Angelaki, Dora E; DeAngelis, Gregory C

    2014-07-01

    Trial by trial covariations between neural activity and perceptual decisions (quantified by choice Probability, CP) have been used to probe the contribution of sensory neurons to perceptual decisions. CPs are thought to be determined by both selective decoding of neural activity and by the structure of correlated noise among neurons, but the respective roles of these factors in creating CPs have been controversial. We used biologically-constrained simulations to explore this issue, taking advantage of a peculiar pattern of CPs exhibited by multisensory neurons in area MSTd that represent self-motion. Although models that relied on correlated noise or selective decoding could both account for the peculiar pattern of CPs, predictions of the selective decoding model were substantially more consistent with various features of the neural and behavioral data. While correlated noise is essential to observe CPs, our findings suggest that selective decoding of neuronal signals also plays important roles.

  2. Measuring public opinion on alcohol policy: a factor analytic study of a US probability sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latimer, William W; Harwood, Eileen M; Newcomb, Michael D; Wagenaar, Alexander C

    2003-03-01

    Public opinion has been one factor affecting change in policies designed to reduce underage alcohol use. Extant research, however, has been criticized for using single survey items of unknown reliability to define adult attitudes on alcohol policy issues. The present investigation addresses a critical gap in the literature by deriving scales on public attitudes, knowledge, and concerns pertinent to alcohol policies designed to reduce underage drinking using a US probability sample survey of 7021 adults. Five attitudinal scales were derived from exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses addressing policies to: (1) regulate alcohol marketing, (2) regulate alcohol consumption in public places, (3) regulate alcohol distribution, (4) increase alcohol taxes, and (5) regulate youth access. The scales exhibited acceptable psychometric properties and were largely consistent with a rational framework which guided the survey construction.

  3. Planning of technical flood retention measures in large river basins under consideration of imprecise probabilities of multivariate hydrological loads

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Nijssen

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available As a result of the severe floods in Europe at the turn of the millennium, the ongoing shift from safety oriented flood control towards flood risk management was accelerated. With regard to technical flood control measures it became evident that the effectiveness of flood control measures depends on many different factors, which cannot be considered with single events used as design floods for planning. The multivariate characteristics of the hydrological loads have to be considered to evaluate complex flood control measures. The effectiveness of spatially distributed flood control systems differs for varying flood events. Event-based characteristics such as the spatial distribution of precipitation, the shape and volume of the resulting flood waves or the interactions of flood waves with the technical elements, e.g. reservoirs and flood polders, result in varying efficiency of these systems. Considering these aspects a flood control system should be evaluated with a broad range of hydrological loads to get a realistic assessment of its performance under different conditions. The consideration of this variety in flood control planning design was one particular aim of this study. Hydrological loads were described by multiple criteria. A statistical characterization of these criteria is difficult, since the data base is often not sufficient to analyze the variety of possible events. Hydrological simulations were used to solve this problem. Here a deterministic-stochastic flood generator was developed and applied to produce a large quantity of flood events which can be used as scenarios of possible hydrological loads. However, these simulations imply many uncertainties. The results will be biased by the basic assumptions of the modeling tools. In flood control planning probabilities are applied to characterize uncertainties. The probabilities of the simulated flood scenarios differ from probabilities which would be derived from long time series

  4. A Model to Determinate the Influence of Probability Density Functions (PDFs of Input Quantities in Measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesús Caja

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available A method for analysing the effect of different hypotheses about the type of the input quantities distributions of a measurement model is presented here so that the developed algorithms can be simplified. As an example, a model of indirect measurements with optical coordinate measurement machine was employed to evaluate these different hypotheses. As a result of the different experiments, the assumption that the different variables of the model can be modelled as normal distributions is proved.

  5. Probability and stochastic modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Rotar, Vladimir I

    2012-01-01

    Basic NotionsSample Space and EventsProbabilitiesCounting TechniquesIndependence and Conditional ProbabilityIndependenceConditioningThe Borel-Cantelli TheoremDiscrete Random VariablesRandom Variables and VectorsExpected ValueVariance and Other Moments. Inequalities for DeviationsSome Basic DistributionsConvergence of Random Variables. The Law of Large NumbersConditional ExpectationGenerating Functions. Branching Processes. Random Walk RevisitedBranching Processes Generating Functions Branching Processes Revisited More on Random WalkMarkov ChainsDefinitions and Examples. Probability Distributions of Markov ChainsThe First Step Analysis. Passage TimesVariables Defined on a Markov ChainErgodicity and Stationary DistributionsA Classification of States and ErgodicityContinuous Random VariablesContinuous DistributionsSome Basic Distributions Continuous Multivariate Distributions Sums of Independent Random Variables Conditional Distributions and ExpectationsDistributions in the General Case. SimulationDistribution F...

  6. Prestack inversion based on anisotropic Markov random field-maximum posterior probability inversion and its application to identify shale gas sweet spots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Kang-Ning; Sun, Zan-Dong; Dong, Ning

    2015-12-01

    Economic shale gas production requires hydraulic fracture stimulation to increase the formation permeability. Hydraulic fracturing strongly depends on geomechanical parameters such as Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio. Fracture-prone sweet spots can be predicted by prestack inversion, which is an ill-posed problem; thus, regularization is needed to obtain unique and stable solutions. To characterize gas-bearing shale sedimentary bodies, elastic parameter variations are regarded as an anisotropic Markov random field. Bayesian statistics are adopted for transforming prestack inversion to the maximum posterior probability. Two energy functions for the lateral and vertical directions are used to describe the distribution, and the expectation-maximization algorithm is used to estimate the hyperparameters of the prior probability of elastic parameters. Finally, the inversion yields clear geological boundaries, high vertical resolution, and reasonable lateral continuity using the conjugate gradient method to minimize the objective function. Antinoise and imaging ability of the method were tested using synthetic and real data.

  7. Absolute transition probabilities of 5s-5p transitions of Kr I from interferometric measurements in LTE-plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaschek, K.; Ernst, G.K.; Boetticher, W.

    1984-01-01

    Absolute transition probabilities of nine 5s-5p transitions of Kr I have been evaluated by using the hook method. The plasma was produced in a shock tube. The population density of the 5s-levels was calculated, under the assumption of LTE, from the electron density and the ground state number measured by means of a dual wavelength interferometer. An evaluation is given which proves the validity of the LTE assumption. (orig.)

  8. Canonical Naimark extension for generalized measurements involving sets of Pauli quantum observables chosen at random

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparaciari, Carlo; Paris, Matteo G. A.

    2013-01-01

    We address measurement schemes where certain observables Xk are chosen at random within a set of nondegenerate isospectral observables and then measured on repeated preparations of a physical system. Each observable has a probability zk to be measured, with ∑kzk=1, and the statistics of this generalized measurement is described by a positive operator-valued measure. This kind of scheme is referred to as quantum roulettes, since each observable Xk is chosen at random, e.g., according to the fluctuating value of an external parameter. Here we focus on quantum roulettes for qubits involving the measurements of Pauli matrices, and we explicitly evaluate their canonical Naimark extensions, i.e., their implementation as indirect measurements involving an interaction scheme with a probe system. We thus provide a concrete model to realize the roulette without destroying the signal state, which can be measured again after the measurement or can be transmitted. Finally, we apply our results to the description of Stern-Gerlach-like experiments on a two-level system.

  9. Measuring symmetry, asymmetry and randomness in neural network connectivity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Umberto Esposito

    Full Text Available Cognitive functions are stored in the connectome, the wiring diagram of the brain, which exhibits non-random features, so-called motifs. In this work, we focus on bidirectional, symmetric motifs, i.e. two neurons that project to each other via connections of equal strength, and unidirectional, non-symmetric motifs, i.e. within a pair of neurons only one neuron projects to the other. We hypothesise that such motifs have been shaped via activity dependent synaptic plasticity processes. As a consequence, learning moves the distribution of the synaptic connections away from randomness. Our aim is to provide a global, macroscopic, single parameter characterisation of the statistical occurrence of bidirectional and unidirectional motifs. To this end we define a symmetry measure that does not require any a priori thresholding of the weights or knowledge of their maximal value. We calculate its mean and variance for random uniform or Gaussian distributions, which allows us to introduce a confidence measure of how significantly symmetric or asymmetric a specific configuration is, i.e. how likely it is that the configuration is the result of chance. We demonstrate the discriminatory power of our symmetry measure by inspecting the eigenvalues of different types of connectivity matrices. We show that a Gaussian weight distribution biases the connectivity motifs to more symmetric configurations than a uniform distribution and that introducing a random synaptic pruning, mimicking developmental regulation in synaptogenesis, biases the connectivity motifs to more asymmetric configurations, regardless of the distribution. We expect that our work will benefit the computational modelling community, by providing a systematic way to characterise symmetry and asymmetry in network structures. Further, our symmetry measure will be of use to electrophysiologists that investigate symmetry of network connectivity.

  10. Measuring symmetry, asymmetry and randomness in neural network connectivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esposito, Umberto; Giugliano, Michele; van Rossum, Mark; Vasilaki, Eleni

    2014-01-01

    Cognitive functions are stored in the connectome, the wiring diagram of the brain, which exhibits non-random features, so-called motifs. In this work, we focus on bidirectional, symmetric motifs, i.e. two neurons that project to each other via connections of equal strength, and unidirectional, non-symmetric motifs, i.e. within a pair of neurons only one neuron projects to the other. We hypothesise that such motifs have been shaped via activity dependent synaptic plasticity processes. As a consequence, learning moves the distribution of the synaptic connections away from randomness. Our aim is to provide a global, macroscopic, single parameter characterisation of the statistical occurrence of bidirectional and unidirectional motifs. To this end we define a symmetry measure that does not require any a priori thresholding of the weights or knowledge of their maximal value. We calculate its mean and variance for random uniform or Gaussian distributions, which allows us to introduce a confidence measure of how significantly symmetric or asymmetric a specific configuration is, i.e. how likely it is that the configuration is the result of chance. We demonstrate the discriminatory power of our symmetry measure by inspecting the eigenvalues of different types of connectivity matrices. We show that a Gaussian weight distribution biases the connectivity motifs to more symmetric configurations than a uniform distribution and that introducing a random synaptic pruning, mimicking developmental regulation in synaptogenesis, biases the connectivity motifs to more asymmetric configurations, regardless of the distribution. We expect that our work will benefit the computational modelling community, by providing a systematic way to characterise symmetry and asymmetry in network structures. Further, our symmetry measure will be of use to electrophysiologists that investigate symmetry of network connectivity.

  11. Viscosity measurement - probably a means for detecting radiation treatment of spices?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heide, L.; Albrich, S.; Boegl, K.W.

    1987-12-01

    The viscosity of 13 different spices and dried vegetables in total was measured. Optimal conditions were first determined for each product, i.e. concentration, pH-value, temperature, particle size and soaking time. For method evaluation, examinations were primarily performed to study the effect of storage, the reproducibility and the influence of the different varieties of the same spice. In supplement, for pepper, the viscosity was measured as a function of radiation dose. In summation, significant changes in the gel forming capability after irradiation could be observed after preliminary experiments in 8 dried spices (ginger, carrots, leek, cloves, pepper, celery, cinnamon and onions). With 3 spices (ginger, pepper and cinnamon) could the results from examining all different varieties of the same spice be substantiated. An additional influence of storage time on viscosity could not be proved during the investigative period of 8 months. Generally seen, there is no possibility of being able to identify an irradiated spice on the basis of viscosity measurements alone, since the difference between the varieties of one and the same spice is considerably great. However, radiation treatment can be reliably excluded with ginger, pepper and cinnamon, if the viscosities are high (10-20 Pa x s). (orig./MG) [de

  12. Probability theory and mathematical statistics for engineers

    CERN Document Server

    Pugachev, V S

    1984-01-01

    Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics for Engineers focuses on the concepts of probability theory and mathematical statistics for finite-dimensional random variables.The publication first underscores the probabilities of events, random variables, and numerical characteristics of random variables. Discussions focus on canonical expansions of random vectors, second-order moments of random vectors, generalization of the density concept, entropy of a distribution, direct evaluation of probabilities, and conditional probabilities. The text then examines projections of random vector

  13. Taylor-series and Monte-Carlo-method uncertainty estimation of the width of a probability distribution based on varying bias and random error

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, Brandon M; Smith, Barton L

    2013-01-01

    Uncertainties are typically assumed to be constant or a linear function of the measured value; however, this is generally not true. Particle image velocimetry (PIV) is one example of a measurement technique that has highly nonlinear, time varying local uncertainties. Traditional uncertainty methods are not adequate for the estimation of the uncertainty of measurement statistics (mean and variance) in the presence of nonlinear, time varying errors. Propagation of instantaneous uncertainty estimates into measured statistics is performed allowing accurate uncertainty quantification of time-mean and statistics of measurements such as PIV. It is shown that random errors will always elevate the measured variance, and thus turbulent statistics such as u'u'-bar. Within this paper, nonlinear, time varying errors are propagated from instantaneous measurements into the measured mean and variance using the Taylor-series method. With these results and knowledge of the systematic and random uncertainty of each measurement, the uncertainty of the time-mean, the variance and covariance can be found. Applicability of the Taylor-series uncertainty equations to time varying systematic and random errors and asymmetric error distributions are demonstrated with Monte-Carlo simulations. The Taylor-series uncertainty estimates are always accurate for uncertainties on the mean quantity. The Taylor-series variance uncertainty is similar to the Monte-Carlo results for cases in which asymmetric random errors exist or the magnitude of the instantaneous variations in the random and systematic errors is near the ‘true’ variance. However, the Taylor-series method overpredicts the uncertainty in the variance as the instantaneous variations of systematic errors are large or are on the same order of magnitude as the ‘true’ variance. (paper)

  14. Quantitative measure of randomness and order for complete genomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Sing-Guan; Fan, Wen-Lang; Chen, Hong-Da; Wigger, Jan; Torda, Andrew E.; Lee, H. C.

    2009-06-01

    We propose an order index, ϕ , which gives a quantitative measure of randomness and order of complete genomic sequences. It maps genomes to a number from 0 (random and of infinite length) to 1 (fully ordered) and applies regardless of sequence length. The 786 complete genomic sequences in GenBank were found to have ϕ values in a very narrow range, ϕg=0.031-0.015+0.028 . We show this implies that genomes are halfway toward being completely random, or, at the “edge of chaos.” We further show that artificial “genomes” converted from literary classics have ϕ ’s that almost exactly coincide with ϕg , but sequences of low information content do not. We infer that ϕg represents a high information-capacity “fixed point” in sequence space, and that genomes are driven to it by the dynamics of a robust growth and evolution process. We show that a growth process characterized by random segmental duplication can robustly drive genomes to the fixed point.

  15. MEASURING MODEL FOR BAD LOANS IN BANKS. THE DEFAULT PROBABILITY MODEL.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SOCOL ADELA

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The banking sectors of the transition countries have progressed remarkably in the last 20 years. In fact, banking in most transition countries has largely shaken off the traumas of the transition eraAt the start of the 21st century banks in these countries look very much like banks elsewhere. That is, they are by no means problem free but they are struggling with the same issues as banks in other emerging market countries during the financial crises conditions. The institutional environment differs considerably among the countries. The goal we set with this article is to examine in terms of methodology the most important assessment criteria of a measuring model for bad loans.

  16. A new reliability measure based on specified minimum distances before the locations of random variables in a finite interval

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Todinov, M.T.

    2004-01-01

    A new reliability measure is proposed and equations are derived which determine the probability of existence of a specified set of minimum gaps between random variables following a homogeneous Poisson process in a finite interval. Using the derived equations, a method is proposed for specifying the upper bound of the random variables' number density which guarantees that the probability of clustering of two or more random variables in a finite interval remains below a maximum acceptable level. It is demonstrated that even for moderate number densities the probability of clustering is substantial and should not be neglected in reliability calculations. In the important special case where the random variables are failure times, models have been proposed for determining the upper bound of the hazard rate which guarantees a set of minimum failure-free operating intervals before the random failures, with a specified probability. A model has also been proposed for determining the upper bound of the hazard rate which guarantees a minimum availability target. Using the models proposed, a new strategy, models and reliability tools have been developed for setting quantitative reliability requirements which consist of determining the intersection of the hazard rate envelopes (hazard rate upper bounds) which deliver a minimum failure-free operating period before random failures, a risk of premature failure below a maximum acceptable level and a minimum required availability. It is demonstrated that setting reliability requirements solely based on an availability target does not necessarily mean a low risk of premature failure. Even at a high availability level, the probability of premature failure can be substantial. For industries characterised by a high cost of failure, the reliability requirements should involve a hazard rate envelope limiting the risk of failure below a maximum acceptable level

  17. The distribution function of a probability measure on a Polish ultrametric space

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Galvez-Rodriguez, J.F.; Sanchez-Granero, M.A.

    2017-07-01

    In applied sciences, the scientific community uses simultaneously different kinds of information coming from several sources in order to infer a conclusion or working decision. In the literature there are many techniques for merging the information and providing, hence, a meaningful fused data. In mostpractical cases such fusion methods are based on aggregation operators on somenumerical values, i.e. the aim of the fusion process is to obtain arepresentative number from a finite sequence of numerical data. In the aforementioned cases, the input data presents some kind of imprecision and for thisreason it is represented as fuzzy sets. Moreover, in such problems the comparisons between the numerical values that represent the information described by the fuzzy sets become necessary. The aforementioned comparisons are made by means of a distance defined on fuzzy sets. Thus, the numerical operators aggregating distances between fuzzy sets as incoming data play a central role in applied problems. Recently, J.J. Nieto and A. Torres gave some applications of the aggregation of distances on fuzzy sets to the study of real medical data in /cite{Nieto}. These applications are based on the notion of segment joining two given fuzzy sets and on the notion of set of midpoints between fuzzy sets. A few results obtained by Nieto and Torres have been generalized in turn by Casasnovas and Rossell/'{o} in /cite{Casas,Casas2}. Nowadays, quasi-metrics provide efficient tools in some fields of computer science and in bioinformatics. Motivated by the exposed facts, a study of segments joining two fuzzy sets and of midpoints between fuzzy sets when the measure, used for comparisons, is a quasi-metric has been made in /cite{Casas3, SebVal2013,TiradoValero}. (Author)

  18. Probability an introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Grimmett, Geoffrey

    2014-01-01

    Probability is an area of mathematics of tremendous contemporary importance across all aspects of human endeavour. This book is a compact account of the basic features of probability and random processes at the level of first and second year mathematics undergraduates and Masters' students in cognate fields. It is suitable for a first course in probability, plus a follow-up course in random processes including Markov chains. A special feature is the authors' attention to rigorous mathematics: not everything is rigorous, but the need for rigour is explained at difficult junctures. The text is enriched by simple exercises, together with problems (with very brief hints) many of which are taken from final examinations at Cambridge and Oxford. The first eight chapters form a course in basic probability, being an account of events, random variables, and distributions - discrete and continuous random variables are treated separately - together with simple versions of the law of large numbers and the central limit th...

  19. The quantum probability calculus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jauch, J.M.

    1976-01-01

    The Wigner anomaly (1932) for the joint distribution of noncompatible observables is an indication that the classical probability calculus is not applicable for quantum probabilities. It should, therefore, be replaced by another, more general calculus, which is specifically adapted to quantal systems. In this article this calculus is exhibited and its mathematical axioms and the definitions of the basic concepts such as probability field, random variable, and expectation values are given. (B.R.H)

  20. Choice Probability Generating Functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel L; Bierlaire, Michel

    This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications....

  1. Measurement model choice influenced randomized controlled trial results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorter, Rosalie; Fox, Jean-Paul; Apeldoorn, Adri; Twisk, Jos

    2016-11-01

    In randomized controlled trials (RCTs), outcome variables are often patient-reported outcomes measured with questionnaires. Ideally, all available item information is used for score construction, which requires an item response theory (IRT) measurement model. However, in practice, the classical test theory measurement model (sum scores) is mostly used, and differences between response patterns leading to the same sum score are ignored. The enhanced differentiation between scores with IRT enables more precise estimation of individual trajectories over time and group effects. The objective of this study was to show the advantages of using IRT scores instead of sum scores when analyzing RCTs. Two studies are presented, a real-life RCT, and a simulation study. Both IRT and sum scores are used to measure the construct and are subsequently used as outcomes for effect calculation. The bias in RCT results is conditional on the measurement model that was used to construct the scores. A bias in estimated trend of around one standard deviation was found when sum scores were used, where IRT showed negligible bias. Accurate statistical inferences are made from an RCT study when using IRT to estimate construct measurements. The use of sum scores leads to incorrect RCT results. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Measurement of the ionization probability of the 1s sigma molecular orbital in half a collision at zero impact parameter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chemin, J.F.; Andriamonje, S.; Guezet, D.; Thibaud, J.P.; Aguer, P.; Hannachi, F.; Bruandet, J.F.

    1984-01-01

    We have measured, for the first time, the ionization probability Psub(1s sigma) of the 1s sigma molecular orbital in the way into a nuclear reaction (in half a collision at zero impact parameter) in a near symmetric collision 58 Ni + 54 Fe at 230 MeV leads to a compound nucleus of 112 Xe highly excited which decays first by sequential emission of charged particles and then by sequential emission of gamma rays. The determination of Psub(1s sigma) is based on the coincidence measurement between X-rays and γ-rays and the Doppler shift method is used to discrimine the ''atomic'' and ''nuclear'' X-rays

  3. Blind Measurement Selection: A Random Matrix Theory Approach

    KAUST Repository

    Elkhalil, Khalil

    2016-12-14

    This paper considers the problem of selecting a set of $k$ measurements from $n$ available sensor observations. The selected measurements should minimize a certain error function assessing the error in estimating a certain $m$ dimensional parameter vector. The exhaustive search inspecting each of the $n\\\\choose k$ possible choices would require a very high computational complexity and as such is not practical for large $n$ and $k$. Alternative methods with low complexity have recently been investigated but their main drawbacks are that 1) they require perfect knowledge of the measurement matrix and 2) they need to be applied at the pace of change of the measurement matrix. To overcome these issues, we consider the asymptotic regime in which $k$, $n$ and $m$ grow large at the same pace. Tools from random matrix theory are then used to approximate in closed-form the most important error measures that are commonly used. The asymptotic approximations are then leveraged to select properly $k$ measurements exhibiting low values for the asymptotic error measures. Two heuristic algorithms are proposed: the first one merely consists in applying the convex optimization artifice to the asymptotic error measure. The second algorithm is a low-complexity greedy algorithm that attempts to look for a sufficiently good solution for the original minimization problem. The greedy algorithm can be applied to both the exact and the asymptotic error measures and can be thus implemented in blind and channel-aware fashions. We present two potential applications where the proposed algorithms can be used, namely antenna selection for uplink transmissions in large scale multi-user systems and sensor selection for wireless sensor networks. Numerical results are also presented and sustain the efficiency of the proposed blind methods in reaching the performances of channel-aware algorithms.

  4. Random walks in the quarter-plane: invariant measures and performance bounds

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, Y.

    2015-01-01

    This monograph focuses on random walks in the quarter-plane. Such random walks are frequently used to model queueing systems and the invariant measure of a random walk is of major importance in studying the performance of these systems. In special cases the invariant measure of a random walk can be

  5. Failure probability under parameter uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerrard, R; Tsanakas, A

    2011-05-01

    In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location-scale families (including the log-normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. Zirconium and Yttrium (p, d) Surrogate Nuclear Reactions: Measurement and determination of gamma-ray probabilities: Experimental Physics Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burke, J. T. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Hughes, R. O. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Escher, J. E. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Scielzo, N. D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Casperson, R. J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Ressler, J. J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Saastamoinen, A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Ota, S. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Park, H. I. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Ross, T. J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); McCleskey, M. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); McCleskey, E. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Austin, R. E. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Rapisarda, G. G. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-09-21

    This technical report documents the surrogate reaction method and experimental results used to determine the desired neutron induced cross sections of 87Y(n,g) and the known 90Zr(n,g) cross section. This experiment was performed at the STARLiTeR apparatus located at Texas A&M Cyclotron Institute using the K150 Cyclotron which produced a 28.56 MeV proton beam. The proton beam impinged on Y and Zr targets to produce the nuclear reactions 89Y(p,d)88Y and 92Zr(p,d)91Zr. Both particle singles data and particle-gamma ray coincident data were measured during the experiment. This data was used to determine the γ-ray probability as a function of energy for these reactions. The results for the γ-ray probabilities as a function of energy for both these nuclei are documented here. For completeness, extensive tabulated and graphical results are provided in the appendices.

  7. Test of the X(5) symmetry in 156Dy and 178Os by measurement of electromagnetic transition probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moeller, O.

    2005-01-01

    This work reports on results from two Recoil-Distance-Doppler-Shift lifetime measurements of excited states in 155 Dy and 178 Os. The experiments were carried out at the GASP spektrometer of the Laboratori Nazional i di Legnaro in combination with the Cologne plunger apparatus. The main purpose of the performed experiments was to test the predictions of the X(5) critical point symmetry in these two nuclei. In 156 Dy and 178 Os 29 lifetimes of excited states were derived using the Differential-Decay-Curve method. In weaker reaction channels the nuclei 155 Dy, 157 Dy and 177 Os were populated. In these nuclei 32 additional lifetimes were measured, most of them for the first time. In order to calculate absolute transition probabilities from the measured lifetimes of the first excited band in 156 Dy, essential branching ratios were derived from the measured data with a very small systematic error ( 178 Os confirm the consistency of a X(5) description in these nuclei. A comparision with the well established X(5)-like nuclei in the N=90 isotones gives an agreement with the X(5) description of at least the same quality. (orig.)

  8. Choice probability generating functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

    2013-01-01

    This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications. The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended...

  9. Measurement on K-electron capture probabilities in the decay of [sup 183]Re and [sup 168]Tm

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prasad, N.V.S.V.; Rao, M.V.S.C.; Reddy, S.B.; Satyanarayana, G.; Sastry, D.L. (Andhra Univ., Visakhapatnam (India). Swami Jnanananda Labs. for Nuclear Research); Murty, G.S.K. (UNDNJ, Newark, NJ (United States). Dept. of Radiology); Chintalapudi, S.N. (Inter University Consortium for DAE Facilities, Calcutta (India))

    1994-03-01

    The K-electron capture probabilities for the 5/2[sup +] to 3/2[sup -]transition in the electron capture decay of [sup 183]Re to the 208.805 keV level in the daughter [sup 183]W and for the 3[sup (+)] to 3[sup -]and 3[sup (+)] to 4[sup -] transitions in the electron capture decay of [sup 168]Tm to the 1541.4 keV and 1093.0 keV levels, respectively, in the daughter [sup 168]Er were measured for the first time using an x-[gamma] summing method. The experimental P[sub K] values are reported in this paper, together with those due to theory, and discussed. (Author).

  10. Error evaluation method for material accountancy measurement. Evaluation of random and systematic errors based on material accountancy data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nidaira, Kazuo

    2008-01-01

    International Target Values (ITV) shows random and systematic measurement uncertainty components as a reference for routinely achievable measurement quality in the accountancy measurement. The measurement uncertainty, called error henceforth, needs to be periodically evaluated and checked against ITV for consistency as the error varies according to measurement methods, instruments, operators, certified reference samples, frequency of calibration, and so on. In the paper an error evaluation method was developed with focuses on (1) Specifying clearly error calculation model, (2) Getting always positive random and systematic error variances, (3) Obtaining probability density distribution of an error variance and (4) Confirming the evaluation method by simulation. In addition the method was demonstrated by applying real data. (author)

  11. Improving Ranking Using Quantum Probability

    OpenAIRE

    Melucci, Massimo

    2011-01-01

    The paper shows that ranking information units by quantum probability differs from ranking them by classical probability provided the same data used for parameter estimation. As probability of detection (also known as recall or power) and probability of false alarm (also known as fallout or size) measure the quality of ranking, we point out and show that ranking by quantum probability yields higher probability of detection than ranking by classical probability provided a given probability of ...

  12. A programmable Gaussian random pulse generator for automated performance measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdel-Aal, R.E.

    1989-01-01

    This paper describes a versatile random signal generator which produces logic pulses with a Gaussian distribution for the pulse spacing. The average rate at the pulse generator output can be software-programmed, which makes it useful in performing automated measurements of dead time and CPU time performance of data acquisition systems and modules over a wide range of data rates. Hardware and software components are described and data on the input-output characteristics and the statistical properties of the pulse generator are given. Typical applications are discussed together with advantages over using radioactive test sources. Results obtained from an automated performance run on a VAX 11/785 data acquisition system are presented. (orig.)

  13. Non-Archimedean Probability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Benci, Vieri; Horsten, Leon; Wenmackers, Sylvia

    We propose an alternative approach to probability theory closely related to the framework of numerosity theory: non-Archimedean probability (NAP). In our approach, unlike in classical probability theory, all subsets of an infinite sample space are measurable and only the empty set gets assigned

  14. Introduction to probability with Mathematica

    CERN Document Server

    Hastings, Kevin J

    2009-01-01

    Discrete ProbabilityThe Cast of Characters Properties of Probability Simulation Random SamplingConditional ProbabilityIndependenceDiscrete DistributionsDiscrete Random Variables, Distributions, and ExpectationsBernoulli and Binomial Random VariablesGeometric and Negative Binomial Random Variables Poisson DistributionJoint, Marginal, and Conditional Distributions More on ExpectationContinuous ProbabilityFrom the Finite to the (Very) Infinite Continuous Random Variables and DistributionsContinuous ExpectationContinuous DistributionsThe Normal Distribution Bivariate Normal DistributionNew Random Variables from OldOrder Statistics Gamma DistributionsChi-Square, Student's t, and F-DistributionsTransformations of Normal Random VariablesAsymptotic TheoryStrong and Weak Laws of Large Numbers Central Limit TheoremStochastic Processes and ApplicationsMarkov ChainsPoisson Processes QueuesBrownian MotionFinancial MathematicsAppendixIntroduction to Mathematica Glossary of Mathematica Commands for Probability Short Answers...

  15. A measurement error approach to assess the association between dietary diversity, nutrient intake, and mean probability of adequacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph, Maria L; Carriquiry, Alicia

    2010-11-01

    Collection of dietary intake information requires time-consuming and expensive methods, making it inaccessible to many resource-poor countries. Quantifying the association between simple measures of usual dietary diversity and usual nutrient intake/adequacy would allow inferences to be made about the adequacy of micronutrient intake at the population level for a fraction of the cost. In this study, we used secondary data from a dietary intake study carried out in Bangladesh to assess the association between 3 food group diversity indicators (FGI) and calcium intake; and the association between these same 3 FGI and a composite measure of nutrient adequacy, mean probability of adequacy (MPA). By implementing Fuller's error-in-the-equation measurement error model (EEM) and simple linear regression (SLR) models, we assessed these associations while accounting for the error in the observed quantities. Significant associations were detected between usual FGI and usual calcium intakes, when the more complex EEM was used. The SLR model detected significant associations between FGI and MPA as well as for variations of these measures, including the best linear unbiased predictor. Through simulation, we support the use of the EEM. In contrast to the EEM, the SLR model does not account for the possible correlation between the measurement errors in the response and predictor. The EEM performs best when the model variables are not complex functions of other variables observed with error (e.g. MPA). When observation days are limited and poor estimates of the within-person variances are obtained, the SLR model tends to be more appropriate.

  16. A comparison between probability and information measures of uncertainty in a simulated soil map and the economic value of imperfect soil information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lark, R. Murray

    2014-05-01

    Conventionally the uncertainty of a conventional soil map has been expressed in terms of the mean purity of its map units: the probability that the soil profile class examined at a site would be found to correspond to the eponymous class of the simple map unit that is delineated there (Burrough et al, 1971). This measure of uncertainty has an intuitive meaning and is used for quality control in soil survey contracts (Western, 1978). However, it may be of limited value to the manager or policy maker who wants to decide whether the map provides a basis for decision making, and whether the cost of producing a better map would be justified. In this study I extend a published analysis of the economic implications of uncertainty in a soil map (Giasson et al., 2000). A decision analysis was developed to assess the economic value of imperfect soil map information for agricultural land use planning. Random error matrices for the soil map units were then generated, subject to constraints which ensure consistency with fixed frequencies of the different soil classes. For each error matrix the mean map unit purity was computed, and the value of the implied imperfect soil information was computed by the decision analysis. An alternative measure of the uncertainty in a soil map was considered. This is the mean soil map information which is the difference between the information content of a soil observation, at a random location in the region, and the information content of a soil observation given that the map unit is known. I examined the relationship between the value of imperfect soil information and the purity and information measures of map uncertainty. In both cases there was considerable variation in the economic value of possible maps with fixed values of the uncertainty measure. However, the correlation was somewhat stronger with the information measure, and there was a clear upper bound on the value of an imperfect soil map when the mean information takes some

  17. Generalized Probability-Probability Plots

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mushkudiani, N.A.; Einmahl, J.H.J.

    2004-01-01

    We introduce generalized Probability-Probability (P-P) plots in order to study the one-sample goodness-of-fit problem and the two-sample problem, for real valued data.These plots, that are constructed by indexing with the class of closed intervals, globally preserve the properties of classical P-P

  18. Ignition Probability

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — USFS, State Forestry, BLM, and DOI fire occurrence point locations from 1987 to 2008 were combined and converted into a fire occurrence probability or density grid...

  19. Real analysis and probability

    CERN Document Server

    Ash, Robert B; Lukacs, E

    1972-01-01

    Real Analysis and Probability provides the background in real analysis needed for the study of probability. Topics covered range from measure and integration theory to functional analysis and basic concepts of probability. The interplay between measure theory and topology is also discussed, along with conditional probability and expectation, the central limit theorem, and strong laws of large numbers with respect to martingale theory.Comprised of eight chapters, this volume begins with an overview of the basic concepts of the theory of measure and integration, followed by a presentation of var

  20. COVAL, Compound Probability Distribution for Function of Probability Distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Astolfi, M.; Elbaz, J.

    1979-01-01

    1 - Nature of the physical problem solved: Computation of the probability distribution of a function of variables, given the probability distribution of the variables themselves. 'COVAL' has been applied to reliability analysis of a structure subject to random loads. 2 - Method of solution: Numerical transformation of probability distributions

  1. Quantum Probabilities as Behavioral Probabilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vyacheslav I. Yukalov

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available We demonstrate that behavioral probabilities of human decision makers share many common features with quantum probabilities. This does not imply that humans are some quantum objects, but just shows that the mathematics of quantum theory is applicable to the description of human decision making. The applicability of quantum rules for describing decision making is connected with the nontrivial process of making decisions in the case of composite prospects under uncertainty. Such a process involves deliberations of a decision maker when making a choice. In addition to the evaluation of the utilities of considered prospects, real decision makers also appreciate their respective attractiveness. Therefore, human choice is not based solely on the utility of prospects, but includes the necessity of resolving the utility-attraction duality. In order to justify that human consciousness really functions similarly to the rules of quantum theory, we develop an approach defining human behavioral probabilities as the probabilities determined by quantum rules. We show that quantum behavioral probabilities of humans do not merely explain qualitatively how human decisions are made, but they predict quantitative values of the behavioral probabilities. Analyzing a large set of empirical data, we find good quantitative agreement between theoretical predictions and observed experimental data.

  2. Toward a generalized probability theory: conditional probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cassinelli, G.

    1979-01-01

    The main mathematical object of interest in the quantum logic approach to the foundations of quantum mechanics is the orthomodular lattice and a set of probability measures, or states, defined by the lattice. This mathematical structure is studied per se, independently from the intuitive or physical motivation of its definition, as a generalized probability theory. It is thought that the building-up of such a probability theory could eventually throw light on the mathematical structure of Hilbert-space quantum mechanics as a particular concrete model of the generalized theory. (Auth.)

  3. Modeling Transport in Fractured Porous Media with the Random-Walk Particle Method: The Transient Activity Range and the Particle-Transfer Probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lehua Pan; G.S. Bodvarsson

    2001-01-01

    Multiscale features of transport processes in fractured porous media make numerical modeling a difficult task, both in conceptualization and computation. Modeling the mass transfer through the fracture-matrix interface is one of the critical issues in the simulation of transport in a fractured porous medium. Because conventional dual-continuum-based numerical methods are unable to capture the transient features of the diffusion depth into the matrix (unless they assume a passive matrix medium), such methods will overestimate the transport of tracers through the fractures, especially for the cases with large fracture spacing, resulting in artificial early breakthroughs. We have developed a new method for calculating the particle-transfer probability that can capture the transient features of diffusion depth into the matrix within the framework of the dual-continuum random-walk particle method (RWPM) by introducing a new concept of activity range of a particle within the matrix. Unlike the multiple-continuum approach, the new dual-continuum RWPM does not require using additional grid blocks to represent the matrix. It does not assume a passive matrix medium and can be applied to the cases where global water flow exists in both continua. The new method has been verified against analytical solutions for transport in the fracture-matrix systems with various fracture spacing. The calculations of the breakthrough curves of radionuclides from a potential repository to the water table in Yucca Mountain demonstrate the effectiveness of the new method for simulating 3-D, mountain-scale transport in a heterogeneous, fractured porous medium under variably saturated conditions

  4. Foundations of probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fraassen, B.C. van

    1979-01-01

    The interpretation of probabilities in physical theories are considered, whether quantum or classical. The following points are discussed 1) the functions P(μ, Q) in terms of which states and propositions can be represented, are classical (Kolmogoroff) probabilities, formally speaking, 2) these probabilities are generally interpreted as themselves conditional, and the conditions are mutually incompatible where the observables are maximal and 3) testing of the theory typically takes the form of confronting the expectation values of observable Q calculated with probability measures P(μ, Q) for states μ; hence, of comparing the probabilities P(μ, Q)(E) with the frequencies of occurrence of the corresponding events. It seems that even the interpretation of quantum mechanics, in so far as it concerns what the theory says about the empirical (i.e. actual, observable) phenomena, deals with the confrontation of classical probability measures with observable frequencies. This confrontation is studied. (Auth./C.F.)

  5. Measurements of excited-state-to-excited-state transition probabilities and photoionization cross-sections using laser-induced fluorescence and photoionization signals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shah, M.L.; Sahoo, A.C.; Pulhani, A.K.; Gupta, G.P.; Dikshit, B.; Bhatia, M.S.; Suri, B.M.

    2014-01-01

    Laser-induced photoionization and fluorescence signals were simultaneously observed in atomic samarium using Nd:YAG-pumped dye lasers. Two-color, three-photon photoionization and two-color fluorescence signals were recorded simultaneously as a function of the second-step laser power for two photoionization pathways. The density matrix formalism has been employed to analyze these signals. Two-color laser-induced fluorescence signal depends on the laser powers used for the first and second-step transitions as well as the first and second-step transition probability whereas two-color, three-photon photoionization signal depends on the third-step transition cross-section at the second-step laser wavelength along with the laser powers and transition probability for the first and second-step transitions. Two-color laser-induced fluorescence was used to measure the second-step transition probability. The second-step transition probability obtained was used to infer the photoionization cross-section. Thus, the methodology combining two-color, three-photon photoionization and two-color fluorescence signals in a single experiment has been established for the first time to measure the second-step transition probability as well as the photoionization cross-section. - Highlights: • Laser-induced photoionization and fluorescence signals have been simultaneously observed. • The density matrix formalism has been employed to analyze these signals. • Two-color laser-induced fluorescence was used to measure the second-step transition probability. • The second-step transition probability obtained was used to infer the photoionization cross-section. • Transition probability and photoionization cross-section have been measured in a single experiment

  6. [Biometric bases: basic concepts of probability calculation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinya, E

    1998-04-26

    The author gives or outline of the basic concepts of probability theory. The bases of the event algebra, definition of the probability, the classical probability model and the random variable are presented.

  7. Probability tales

    CERN Document Server

    Grinstead, Charles M; Snell, J Laurie

    2011-01-01

    This book explores four real-world topics through the lens of probability theory. It can be used to supplement a standard text in probability or statistics. Most elementary textbooks present the basic theory and then illustrate the ideas with some neatly packaged examples. Here the authors assume that the reader has seen, or is learning, the basic theory from another book and concentrate in some depth on the following topics: streaks, the stock market, lotteries, and fingerprints. This extended format allows the authors to present multiple approaches to problems and to pursue promising side discussions in ways that would not be possible in a book constrained to cover a fixed set of topics. To keep the main narrative accessible, the authors have placed the more technical mathematical details in appendices. The appendices can be understood by someone who has taken one or two semesters of calculus.

  8. Probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    Dorogovtsev, A Ya; Skorokhod, A V; Silvestrov, D S; Skorokhod, A V

    1997-01-01

    This book of problems is intended for students in pure and applied mathematics. There are problems in traditional areas of probability theory and problems in the theory of stochastic processes, which has wide applications in the theory of automatic control, queuing and reliability theories, and in many other modern science and engineering fields. Answers to most of the problems are given, and the book provides hints and solutions for more complicated problems.

  9. Some Limits Using Random Slope Models to Measure Academic Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel B. Wright

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Academic growth is often estimated using a random slope multilevel model with several years of data. However, if there are few time points, the estimates can be unreliable. While using random slope multilevel models can lower the variance of the estimates, these procedures can produce more highly erroneous estimates—zero and negative correlations with the true underlying growth—than using ordinary least squares estimates calculated for each student or school individually. An example is provided where schools with increasing graduation rates are estimated to have negative growth and vice versa. The estimation is worse when the underlying data are skewed. It is recommended that there are at least six time points for estimating growth if using a random slope model. A combination of methods can be used to avoid some of the aberrant results if it is not possible to have six or more time points.

  10. Randomly forced CGL equation stationary measures and the inviscid limit

    CERN Document Server

    Kuksin, S

    2003-01-01

    We study a complex Ginzburg-Landau (CGL) equation perturbed by a random force which is white in time and smooth in the space variable~$x$. Assuming that $\\dim x\\le4$, we prove that this equation has a unique solution and discuss its asymptotic in time properties. Next we consider the case when the random force is proportional to the square root of the viscosity and study the behaviour of stationary solutions as the viscosity goes to zero. We show that, under this limit, a subsequence of solutions in question converges to a nontrivial stationary process formed by global strong solutions of the nonlinear Schr\\"odinger equation.

  11. Introduction to probability and statistics for science, engineering, and finance

    CERN Document Server

    Rosenkrantz, Walter A

    2008-01-01

    Data Analysis Orientation The Role and Scope of Statistics in Science and Engineering Types of Data: Examples from Engineering, Public Health, and Finance The Frequency Distribution of a Variable Defined on a Population Quantiles of a Distribution Measures of Location (Central Value) and Variability Covariance, Correlation, and Regression: Computing a Stock's Beta Mathematical Details and Derivations Large Data Sets Probability Theory Orientation Sample Space, Events, Axioms of Probability Theory Mathematical Models of Random Sampling Conditional Probability and Baye

  12. The Precise Time Course of Lexical Activation: MEG Measurements of the Effects of Frequency, Probability, and Density in Lexical Decision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stockall, Linnaea; Stringfellow, Andrew; Marantz, Alec

    2004-01-01

    Visually presented letter strings consistently yield three MEG response components: the M170, associated with letter-string processing (Tarkiainen, Helenius, Hansen, Cornelissen, & Salmelin, 1999); the M250, affected by phonotactic probability, (Pylkkanen, Stringfellow, & Marantz, 2002); and the M350, responsive to lexical frequency (Embick,…

  13. Completely random measures for modelling block-structured sparse networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herlau, Tue; Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Mørup, Morten

    2016-01-01

    Many statistical methods for network data parameterize the edge-probability by attributing latent traits to the vertices such as block structure and assume exchangeability in the sense of the Aldous-Hoover representation theorem. Empirical studies of networks indicate that many real-world networks...... have a power-law distribution of the vertices which in turn implies the number of edges scale slower than quadratically in the number of vertices. These assumptions are fundamentally irreconcilable as the Aldous-Hoover theorem implies quadratic scaling of the number of edges. Recently Caron and Fox...

  14. Random Number Simulations Reveal How Random Noise Affects the Measurements and Graphical Portrayals of Self-Assessed Competency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward Nuhfer

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Self-assessment measures of competency are blends of an authentic self-assessment signal that researchers seek to measure and random disorder or "noise" that accompanies that signal. In this study, we use random number simulations to explore how random noise affects critical aspects of self-assessment investigations: reliability, correlation, critical sample size, and the graphical representations of self-assessment data. We show that graphical conventions common in the self-assessment literature introduce artifacts that invite misinterpretation. Troublesome conventions include: (y minus x vs. (x scatterplots; (y minus x vs. (x column graphs aggregated as quantiles; line charts that display data aggregated as quantiles; and some histograms. Graphical conventions that generate minimal artifacts include scatterplots with a best-fit line that depict (y vs. (x measures (self-assessed competence vs. measured competence plotted by individual participant scores, and (y vs. (x scatterplots of collective average measures of all participants plotted item-by-item. This last graphic convention attenuates noise and improves the definition of the signal. To provide relevant comparisons across varied graphical conventions, we use a single dataset derived from paired measures of 1154 participants' self-assessed competence and demonstrated competence in science literacy. Our results show that different numerical approaches employed in investigating and describing self-assessment accuracy are not equally valid. By modeling this dataset with random numbers, we show how recognizing the varied expressions of randomness in self-assessment data can improve the validity of numeracy-based descriptions of self-assessment.

  15. An explicit semantic relatedness measure based on random walk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    HU Sihui

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The semantic relatedness calculation of open domain knowledge network is a significant issue.In this paper,pheromone strategy is drawn from the thought of ant colony algorithm and is integrated into the random walk which is taken as the basic framework of calculating the semantic relatedness degree.The pheromone distribution is taken as a criterion of determining the tightness degree of semantic relatedness.A method of calculating semantic relatedness degree based on random walk is proposed and the exploration process of calculating the semantic relatedness degree is presented in a dominant way.The method mainly contains Path Select Model(PSM and Semantic Relatedness Computing Model(SRCM.PSM is used to simulate the path selection of ants and pheromone release.SRCM is used to calculate the semantic relatedness by utilizing the information returned by ants.The result indicates that the method could complete semantic relatedness calculation in linear complexity and extend the feasible strategy of semantic relatedness calculation.

  16. Introduction to probability theory with contemporary applications

    CERN Document Server

    Helms, Lester L

    2010-01-01

    This introduction to probability theory transforms a highly abstract subject into a series of coherent concepts. Its extensive discussions and clear examples, written in plain language, expose students to the rules and methods of probability. Suitable for an introductory probability course, this volume requires abstract and conceptual thinking skills and a background in calculus.Topics include classical probability, set theory, axioms, probability functions, random and independent random variables, expected values, and covariance and correlations. Additional subjects include stochastic process

  17. Choice probability generating functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

    2010-01-01

    This paper establishes that every random utility discrete choice model (RUM) has a representation that can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) with specific properties, and that every function with these specific properties is consistent with a RUM. The choice...... probabilities from the RUM are obtained from the gradient of the CPGF. Mixtures of RUM are characterized by logarithmic mixtures of their associated CPGF. The paper relates CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and reviews and extends methods for constructing generating functions for applications....... The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended to competing risk survival models....

  18. Probability for statisticians

    CERN Document Server

    Shorack, Galen R

    2017-01-01

    This 2nd edition textbook offers a rigorous introduction to measure theoretic probability with particular attention to topics of interest to mathematical statisticians—a textbook for courses in probability for students in mathematical statistics. It is recommended to anyone interested in the probability underlying modern statistics, providing a solid grounding in the probabilistic tools and techniques necessary to do theoretical research in statistics. For the teaching of probability theory to post graduate statistics students, this is one of the most attractive books available. Of particular interest is a presentation of the major central limit theorems via Stein's method either prior to or alternative to a characteristic function presentation. Additionally, there is considerable emphasis placed on the quantile function as well as the distribution function. The bootstrap and trimming are both presented. Martingale coverage includes coverage of censored data martingales. The text includes measure theoretic...

  19. The pleasures of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Isaac, Richard

    1995-01-01

    The ideas of probability are all around us. Lotteries, casino gambling, the al­ most non-stop polling which seems to mold public policy more and more­ these are a few of the areas where principles of probability impinge in a direct way on the lives and fortunes of the general public. At a more re­ moved level there is modern science which uses probability and its offshoots like statistics and the theory of random processes to build mathematical descriptions of the real world. In fact, twentieth-century physics, in embrac­ ing quantum mechanics, has a world view that is at its core probabilistic in nature, contrary to the deterministic one of classical physics. In addition to all this muscular evidence of the importance of probability ideas it should also be said that probability can be lots of fun. It is a subject where you can start thinking about amusing, interesting, and often difficult problems with very little mathematical background. In this book, I wanted to introduce a reader with at least a fairl...

  20. Weak convergence to isotropic complex S α S $S\\alpha S$ random measure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Wang

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract In this paper, we prove that an isotropic complex symmetric α-stable random measure ( 0 < α < 2 $0<\\alpha<2$ can be approximated by a complex process constructed by integrals based on the Poisson process with random intensity.

  1. Bayesian randomized item response modeling for sensitive measurements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Avetisyan, Marianna

    2012-01-01

    In behavioral, health, and social sciences, any endeavor involving measurement is directed at accurate representation of the latent concept with the manifest observation. However, when sensitive topics, such as substance abuse, tax evasion, or felony, are inquired, substantial distortion of reported

  2. Two Notes on Measure-Theoretic Entropy of Random Dynamical Systems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YuJun ZHU

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, Brin-Katok local entropy formula and Katok's definition of the measure theoretic entropy using spanning set are established for the random dynamical system over an invertible ergodic system.

  3. Probability and Bayesian statistics

    CERN Document Server

    1987-01-01

    This book contains selected and refereed contributions to the "Inter­ national Symposium on Probability and Bayesian Statistics" which was orga­ nized to celebrate the 80th birthday of Professor Bruno de Finetti at his birthplace Innsbruck in Austria. Since Professor de Finetti died in 1985 the symposium was dedicated to the memory of Bruno de Finetti and took place at Igls near Innsbruck from 23 to 26 September 1986. Some of the pa­ pers are published especially by the relationship to Bruno de Finetti's scientific work. The evolution of stochastics shows growing importance of probability as coherent assessment of numerical values as degrees of believe in certain events. This is the basis for Bayesian inference in the sense of modern statistics. The contributions in this volume cover a broad spectrum ranging from foundations of probability across psychological aspects of formulating sub­ jective probability statements, abstract measure theoretical considerations, contributions to theoretical statistics an...

  4. The invariant measure of random walks in the quarter-plane: respresentation in geometric terms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, Y.; Boucherie, Richardus J.; Goseling, Jasper

    We consider the invariant measure of homogeneous random walks in the quarter-plane. In particular, we consider measures that can be expressed as a finite linear combination of geometric terms and present conditions on the structure of these linear combinations such that the resulting measure may

  5. The Use of PCs, Smartphones, and Tablets in a Probability-Based Panel Survey : Effects on Survey Measurement Error

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lugtig, Peter; Toepoel, Vera

    2016-01-01

    Respondents in an Internet panel survey can often choose which device they use to complete questionnaires: a traditional PC, laptop, tablet computer, or a smartphone. Because all these devices have different screen sizes and modes of data entry, measurement errors may differ between devices. Using

  6. Viscosity measurement - probably a means for detecting radiation treatment of spices. Viskositaetsmessung - ein Verfahren zur Identifizierung strahlenbehandelter Gewuerze

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heide, L; Albrich, S; Boegl, K W; Mohr, E; Wichmann, G

    1987-12-01

    The viscosity of 13 different spices and dried vegetables in total was measured. Optimal conditions were first determined for each product, i.e. concentration, pH-value, temperature, particle size and soaking time. For method evaluation, examinations were primarily performed to study the effect of storage, the reproducibility and the influence of the different varieties of the same spice. In supplement, for pepper, the viscosity was measured as a function of radiation dose. In summation, significant changes in the gel forming capability after irradiation could be observed after preliminary experiments in 8 dried spices (ginger, carrots, leek, cloves, pepper, celery, cinnamon and onions). With 3 spices (ginger, pepper and cinnamon) could the results from examining all different varieties of the same spice be substantiated. An additional influence of storage time on viscosity could not be proved during the investigative period of 8 months. Generally seen, there is no possibility of being able to identify an irradiated spice on the basis of viscosity measurements alone, since the difference between the varieties of one and the same spice is considerably great. However, radiation treatment can be reliably excluded with ginger, pepper and cinnamon, if the viscosities are high (10-20 Pa x s).

  7. Probability Machines: Consistent Probability Estimation Using Nonparametric Learning Machines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malley, J. D.; Kruppa, J.; Dasgupta, A.; Malley, K. G.; Ziegler, A.

    2011-01-01

    Summary Background Most machine learning approaches only provide a classification for binary responses. However, probabilities are required for risk estimation using individual patient characteristics. It has been shown recently that every statistical learning machine known to be consistent for a nonparametric regression problem is a probability machine that is provably consistent for this estimation problem. Objectives The aim of this paper is to show how random forests and nearest neighbors can be used for consistent estimation of individual probabilities. Methods Two random forest algorithms and two nearest neighbor algorithms are described in detail for estimation of individual probabilities. We discuss the consistency of random forests, nearest neighbors and other learning machines in detail. We conduct a simulation study to illustrate the validity of the methods. We exemplify the algorithms by analyzing two well-known data sets on the diagnosis of appendicitis and the diagnosis of diabetes in Pima Indians. Results Simulations demonstrate the validity of the method. With the real data application, we show the accuracy and practicality of this approach. We provide sample code from R packages in which the probability estimation is already available. This means that all calculations can be performed using existing software. Conclusions Random forest algorithms as well as nearest neighbor approaches are valid machine learning methods for estimating individual probabilities for binary responses. Freely available implementations are available in R and may be used for applications. PMID:21915433

  8. Methodology for assessing the probability of corrosion in concrete structures on the basis of half-cell potential and concrete resistivity measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadowski, Lukasz

    2013-01-01

    In recent years, the corrosion of steel reinforcement has become a major problem in the construction industry. Therefore, much attention has been given to developing methods of predicting the service life of reinforced concrete structures. The progress of corrosion cannot be visually assessed until a crack or a delamination appears. The corrosion process can be tracked using several electrochemical techniques. Most commonly the half-cell potential measurement technique is used for this purpose. However, it is generally accepted that it should be supplemented with other techniques. Hence, a methodology for assessing the probability of corrosion in concrete slabs by means of a combination of two methods, that is, the half-cell potential method and the concrete resistivity method, is proposed. An assessment of the probability of corrosion in reinforced concrete structures carried out using the proposed methodology is presented. 200 mm thick 750 mm  ×  750 mm reinforced concrete slab specimens were investigated. Potential E corr and concrete resistivity ρ in each point of the applied grid were measured. The experimental results indicate that the proposed methodology can be successfully used to assess the probability of corrosion in concrete structures.

  9. Methodology for Assessing the Probability of Corrosion in Concrete Structures on the Basis of Half-Cell Potential and Concrete Resistivity Measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lukasz Sadowski

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the corrosion of steel reinforcement has become a major problem in the construction industry. Therefore, much attention has been given to developing methods of predicting the service life of reinforced concrete structures. The progress of corrosion cannot be visually assessed until a crack or a delamination appears. The corrosion process can be tracked using several electrochemical techniques. Most commonly the half-cell potential measurement technique is used for this purpose. However, it is generally accepted that it should be supplemented with other techniques. Hence, a methodology for assessing the probability of corrosion in concrete slabs by means of a combination of two methods, that is, the half-cell potential method and the concrete resistivity method, is proposed. An assessment of the probability of corrosion in reinforced concrete structures carried out using the proposed methodology is presented. 200 mm thick 750 mm  ×  750 mm reinforced concrete slab specimens were investigated. Potential Ecorr and concrete resistivity ρ in each point of the applied grid were measured. The experimental results indicate that the proposed methodology can be successfully used to assess the probability of corrosion in concrete structures.

  10. Random magnetism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tahir-Kheli, R.A.

    1975-01-01

    A few simple problems relating to random magnetic systems are presented. Translational symmetry, only on the macroscopic scale, is assumed for these systems. A random set of parameters, on the microscopic scale, for the various regions of these systems is also assumed. A probability distribution for randomness is obeyed. Knowledge of the form of these probability distributions, is assumed in all cases [pt

  11. Bayesian Probability Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    von der Linden, Wolfgang; Dose, Volker; von Toussaint, Udo

    2014-06-01

    Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Basic definitions; 3. Bayesian inference; 4. Combinatrics; 5. Random walks; 6. Limit theorems; 7. Continuous distributions; 8. The central limit theorem; 9. Poisson processes and waiting times; Part II. Assigning Probabilities: 10. Transformation invariance; 11. Maximum entropy; 12. Qualified maximum entropy; 13. Global smoothness; Part III. Parameter Estimation: 14. Bayesian parameter estimation; 15. Frequentist parameter estimation; 16. The Cramer-Rao inequality; Part IV. Testing Hypotheses: 17. The Bayesian way; 18. The frequentist way; 19. Sampling distributions; 20. Bayesian vs frequentist hypothesis tests; Part V. Real World Applications: 21. Regression; 22. Inconsistent data; 23. Unrecognized signal contributions; 24. Change point problems; 25. Function estimation; 26. Integral equations; 27. Model selection; 28. Bayesian experimental design; Part VI. Probabilistic Numerical Techniques: 29. Numerical integration; 30. Monte Carlo methods; 31. Nested sampling; Appendixes; References; Index.

  12. Irreversibility and conditional probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stuart, C.I.J.M.

    1989-01-01

    The mathematical entropy - unlike physical entropy - is simply a measure of uniformity for probability distributions in general. So understood, conditional entropies have the same logical structure as conditional probabilities. If, as is sometimes supposed, conditional probabilities are time-reversible, then so are conditional entropies and, paradoxically, both then share this symmetry with physical equations of motion. The paradox is, of course that probabilities yield a direction to time both in statistical mechanics and quantum mechanics, while the equations of motion do not. The supposed time-reversibility of both conditionals seems also to involve a form of retrocausality that is related to, but possibly not the same as, that described by Costa de Beaurgard. The retrocausality is paradoxically at odds with the generally presumed irreversibility of the quantum mechanical measurement process. Further paradox emerges if the supposed time-reversibility of the conditionals is linked with the idea that the thermodynamic entropy is the same thing as 'missing information' since this confounds the thermodynamic and mathematical entropies. However, it is shown that irreversibility is a formal consequence of conditional entropies and, hence, of conditional probabilities also. 8 refs. (Author)

  13. Prediction and probability in sciences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klein, E.; Sacquin, Y.

    1998-01-01

    This book reports the 7 presentations made at the third meeting 'physics and fundamental questions' whose theme was probability and prediction. The concept of probability that was invented to apprehend random phenomena has become an important branch of mathematics and its application range spreads from radioactivity to species evolution via cosmology or the management of very weak risks. The notion of probability is the basis of quantum mechanics and then is bound to the very nature of matter. The 7 topics are: - radioactivity and probability, - statistical and quantum fluctuations, - quantum mechanics as a generalized probability theory, - probability and the irrational efficiency of mathematics, - can we foresee the future of the universe?, - chance, eventuality and necessity in biology, - how to manage weak risks? (A.C.)

  14. Applied probability and stochastic processes

    CERN Document Server

    Sumita, Ushio

    1999-01-01

    Applied Probability and Stochastic Processes is an edited work written in honor of Julien Keilson. This volume has attracted a host of scholars in applied probability, who have made major contributions to the field, and have written survey and state-of-the-art papers on a variety of applied probability topics, including, but not limited to: perturbation method, time reversible Markov chains, Poisson processes, Brownian techniques, Bayesian probability, optimal quality control, Markov decision processes, random matrices, queueing theory and a variety of applications of stochastic processes. The book has a mixture of theoretical, algorithmic, and application chapters providing examples of the cutting-edge work that Professor Keilson has done or influenced over the course of his highly-productive and energetic career in applied probability and stochastic processes. The book will be of interest to academic researchers, students, and industrial practitioners who seek to use the mathematics of applied probability i...

  15. Random Fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanmarcke, Erik

    1983-03-01

    Random variation over space and time is one of the few attributes that might safely be predicted as characterizing almost any given complex system. Random fields or "distributed disorder systems" confront astronomers, physicists, geologists, meteorologists, biologists, and other natural scientists. They appear in the artifacts developed by electrical, mechanical, civil, and other engineers. They even underlie the processes of social and economic change. The purpose of this book is to bring together existing and new methodologies of random field theory and indicate how they can be applied to these diverse areas where a "deterministic treatment is inefficient and conventional statistics insufficient." Many new results and methods are included. After outlining the extent and characteristics of the random field approach, the book reviews the classical theory of multidimensional random processes and introduces basic probability concepts and methods in the random field context. It next gives a concise amount of the second-order analysis of homogeneous random fields, in both the space-time domain and the wave number-frequency domain. This is followed by a chapter on spectral moments and related measures of disorder and on level excursions and extremes of Gaussian and related random fields. After developing a new framework of analysis based on local averages of one-, two-, and n-dimensional processes, the book concludes with a chapter discussing ramifications in the important areas of estimation, prediction, and control. The mathematical prerequisite has been held to basic college-level calculus.

  16. The generation of 68 Gbps quantum random number by measuring laser phase fluctuations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nie, You-Qi; Liu, Yang; Zhang, Jun; Pan, Jian-Wei; Huang, Leilei; Payne, Frank

    2015-01-01

    The speed of a quantum random number generator is essential for practical applications, such as high-speed quantum key distribution systems. Here, we push the speed of a quantum random number generator to 68 Gbps by operating a laser around its threshold level. To achieve the rate, not only high-speed photodetector and high sampling rate are needed but also a very stable interferometer is required. A practical interferometer with active feedback instead of common temperature control is developed to meet the requirement of stability. Phase fluctuations of the laser are measured by the interferometer with a photodetector and then digitalized to raw random numbers with a rate of 80 Gbps. The min-entropy of the raw data is evaluated by modeling the system and is used to quantify the quantum randomness of the raw data. The bias of the raw data caused by other signals, such as classical and detection noises, can be removed by Toeplitz-matrix hashing randomness extraction. The final random numbers can pass through the standard randomness tests. Our demonstration shows that high-speed quantum random number generators are ready for practical usage

  17. Randomness Representation of Turbulence in Canopy Flows Using Kolmogorov Complexity Measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dragutin Mihailović

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Turbulence is often expressed in terms of either irregular or random fluid flows, without quantification. In this paper, a methodology to evaluate the randomness of the turbulence using measures based on the Kolmogorov complexity (KC is proposed. This methodology is applied to experimental data from a turbulent flow developing in a laboratory channel with canopy of three different densities. The methodology is even compared with the traditional approach based on classical turbulence statistics.

  18. Nonparametric indices of dependence between components for inhomogeneous multivariate random measures and marked sets

    OpenAIRE

    van Lieshout, Maria Nicolette Margaretha

    2018-01-01

    We propose new summary statistics to quantify the association between the components in coverage-reweighted moment stationary multivariate random sets and measures. They are defined in terms of the coverage-reweighted cumulant densities and extend classic functional statistics for stationary random closed sets. We study the relations between these statistics and evaluate them explicitly for a range of models. Unbiased estimators are given for all statistics and applied to simulated examples a...

  19. Joint genome-wide prediction in several populations accounting for randomness of genotypes: A hierarchical Bayes approach. I: Multivariate Gaussian priors for marker effects and derivation of the joint probability mass function of genotypes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez, Carlos Alberto; Khare, Kshitij; Banerjee, Arunava; Elzo, Mauricio A

    2017-03-21

    It is important to consider heterogeneity of marker effects and allelic frequencies in across population genome-wide prediction studies. Moreover, all regression models used in genome-wide prediction overlook randomness of genotypes. In this study, a family of hierarchical Bayesian models to perform across population genome-wide prediction modeling genotypes as random variables and allowing population-specific effects for each marker was developed. Models shared a common structure and differed in the priors used and the assumption about residual variances (homogeneous or heterogeneous). Randomness of genotypes was accounted for by deriving the joint probability mass function of marker genotypes conditional on allelic frequencies and pedigree information. As a consequence, these models incorporated kinship and genotypic information that not only permitted to account for heterogeneity of allelic frequencies, but also to include individuals with missing genotypes at some or all loci without the need for previous imputation. This was possible because the non-observed fraction of the design matrix was treated as an unknown model parameter. For each model, a simpler version ignoring population structure, but still accounting for randomness of genotypes was proposed. Implementation of these models and computation of some criteria for model comparison were illustrated using two simulated datasets. Theoretical and computational issues along with possible applications, extensions and refinements were discussed. Some features of the models developed in this study make them promising for genome-wide prediction, the use of information contained in the probability distribution of genotypes is perhaps the most appealing. Further studies to assess the performance of the models proposed here and also to compare them with conventional models used in genome-wide prediction are needed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Probability Aggregates in Probability Answer Set Programming

    OpenAIRE

    Saad, Emad

    2013-01-01

    Probability answer set programming is a declarative programming that has been shown effective for representing and reasoning about a variety of probability reasoning tasks. However, the lack of probability aggregates, e.g. {\\em expected values}, in the language of disjunctive hybrid probability logic programs (DHPP) disallows the natural and concise representation of many interesting problems. In this paper, we extend DHPP to allow arbitrary probability aggregates. We introduce two types of p...

  1. Bias in random forest variable importance measures: Illustrations, sources and a solution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hothorn Torsten

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Variable importance measures for random forests have been receiving increased attention as a means of variable selection in many classification tasks in bioinformatics and related scientific fields, for instance to select a subset of genetic markers relevant for the prediction of a certain disease. We show that random forest variable importance measures are a sensible means for variable selection in many applications, but are not reliable in situations where potential predictor variables vary in their scale of measurement or their number of categories. This is particularly important in genomics and computational biology, where predictors often include variables of different types, for example when predictors include both sequence data and continuous variables such as folding energy, or when amino acid sequence data show different numbers of categories. Results Simulation studies are presented illustrating that, when random forest variable importance measures are used with data of varying types, the results are misleading because suboptimal predictor variables may be artificially preferred in variable selection. The two mechanisms underlying this deficiency are biased variable selection in the individual classification trees used to build the random forest on one hand, and effects induced by bootstrap sampling with replacement on the other hand. Conclusion We propose to employ an alternative implementation of random forests, that provides unbiased variable selection in the individual classification trees. When this method is applied using subsampling without replacement, the resulting variable importance measures can be used reliably for variable selection even in situations where the potential predictor variables vary in their scale of measurement or their number of categories. The usage of both random forest algorithms and their variable importance measures in the R system for statistical computing is illustrated and

  2. A new method for estimating the probable maximum hail loss of a building portfolio based on hailfall intensity determined by radar measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aller, D.; Hohl, R.; Mair, F.; Schiesser, H.-H.

    2003-04-01

    Extreme hailfall can cause massive damage to building structures. For the insurance and reinsurance industry it is essential to estimate the probable maximum hail loss of their portfolio. The probable maximum loss (PML) is usually defined with a return period of 1 in 250 years. Statistical extrapolation has a number of critical points, as historical hail loss data are usually only available from some events while insurance portfolios change over the years. At the moment, footprints are derived from historical hail damage data. These footprints (mean damage patterns) are then moved over a portfolio of interest to create scenario losses. However, damage patterns of past events are based on the specific portfolio that was damaged during that event and can be considerably different from the current spread of risks. A new method for estimating the probable maximum hail loss to a building portfolio is presented. It is shown that footprints derived from historical damages are different to footprints of hail kinetic energy calculated from radar reflectivity measurements. Based on the relationship between radar-derived hail kinetic energy and hail damage to buildings, scenario losses can be calculated. A systematic motion of the hail kinetic energy footprints over the underlying portfolio creates a loss set. It is difficult to estimate the return period of losses calculated with footprints derived from historical damages being moved around. To determine the return periods of the hail kinetic energy footprints over Switzerland, 15 years of radar measurements and 53 years of agricultural hail losses are available. Based on these data, return periods of several types of hailstorms were derived for different regions in Switzerland. The loss set is combined with the return periods of the event set to obtain an exceeding frequency curve, which can be used to derive the PML.

  3. Joint probabilities and quantum cognition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Acacio de Barros, J.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we discuss the existence of joint probability distributions for quantumlike response computations in the brain. We do so by focusing on a contextual neural-oscillator model shown to reproduce the main features of behavioral stimulus-response theory. We then exhibit a simple example of contextual random variables not having a joint probability distribution, and describe how such variables can be obtained from neural oscillators, but not from a quantum observable algebra.

  4. Joint probabilities and quantum cognition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acacio de Barros, J. [Liberal Studies, 1600 Holloway Ave., San Francisco State University, San Francisco, CA 94132 (United States)

    2012-12-18

    In this paper we discuss the existence of joint probability distributions for quantumlike response computations in the brain. We do so by focusing on a contextual neural-oscillator model shown to reproduce the main features of behavioral stimulus-response theory. We then exhibit a simple example of contextual random variables not having a joint probability distribution, and describe how such variables can be obtained from neural oscillators, but not from a quantum observable algebra.

  5. Optimal dose selection accounting for patient subpopulations in a randomized Phase II trial to maximize the success probability of a subsequent Phase III trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Fumihiro; Morita, Satoshi

    2018-02-08

    Phase II clinical trials are conducted to determine the optimal dose of the study drug for use in Phase III clinical trials while also balancing efficacy and safety. In conducting these trials, it may be important to consider subpopulations of patients grouped by background factors such as drug metabolism and kidney and liver function. Determining the optimal dose, as well as maximizing the effectiveness of the study drug by analyzing patient subpopulations, requires a complex decision-making process. In extreme cases, drug development has to be terminated due to inadequate efficacy or severe toxicity. Such a decision may be based on a particular subpopulation. We propose a Bayesian utility approach (BUART) to randomized Phase II clinical trials which uses a first-order bivariate normal dynamic linear model for efficacy and safety in order to determine the optimal dose and study population in a subsequent Phase III clinical trial. We carried out a simulation study under a wide range of clinical scenarios to evaluate the performance of the proposed method in comparison with a conventional method separately analyzing efficacy and safety in each patient population. The proposed method showed more favorable operating characteristics in determining the optimal population and dose.

  6. Nuclear data uncertainties: I, Basic concepts of probability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, D.L.

    1988-12-01

    Some basic concepts of probability theory are presented from a nuclear-data perspective, in order to provide a foundation for thorough understanding of the role of uncertainties in nuclear data research. Topics included in this report are: events, event spaces, calculus of events, randomness, random variables, random-variable distributions, intuitive and axiomatic probability, calculus of probability, conditional probability and independence, probability distributions, binomial and multinomial probability, Poisson and interval probability, normal probability, the relationships existing between these probability laws, and Bayes' theorem. This treatment emphasizes the practical application of basic mathematical concepts to nuclear data research, and it includes numerous simple examples. 34 refs.

  7. Nuclear data uncertainties: I, Basic concepts of probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, D.L.

    1988-12-01

    Some basic concepts of probability theory are presented from a nuclear-data perspective, in order to provide a foundation for thorough understanding of the role of uncertainties in nuclear data research. Topics included in this report are: events, event spaces, calculus of events, randomness, random variables, random-variable distributions, intuitive and axiomatic probability, calculus of probability, conditional probability and independence, probability distributions, binomial and multinomial probability, Poisson and interval probability, normal probability, the relationships existing between these probability laws, and Bayes' theorem. This treatment emphasizes the practical application of basic mathematical concepts to nuclear data research, and it includes numerous simple examples. 34 refs

  8. Probability with applications and R

    CERN Document Server

    Dobrow, Robert P

    2013-01-01

    An introduction to probability at the undergraduate level Chance and randomness are encountered on a daily basis. Authored by a highly qualified professor in the field, Probability: With Applications and R delves into the theories and applications essential to obtaining a thorough understanding of probability. With real-life examples and thoughtful exercises from fields as diverse as biology, computer science, cryptology, ecology, public health, and sports, the book is accessible for a variety of readers. The book's emphasis on simulation through the use of the popular R software language c

  9. Scaling Qualitative Probability

    OpenAIRE

    Burgin, Mark

    2017-01-01

    There are different approaches to qualitative probability, which includes subjective probability. We developed a representation of qualitative probability based on relational systems, which allows modeling uncertainty by probability structures and is more coherent than existing approaches. This setting makes it possible proving that any comparative probability is induced by some probability structure (Theorem 2.1), that classical probability is a probability structure (Theorem 2.2) and that i...

  10. Probability elements of the mathematical theory

    CERN Document Server

    Heathcote, C R

    2000-01-01

    Designed for students studying mathematical statistics and probability after completing a course in calculus and real variables, this text deals with basic notions of probability spaces, random variables, distribution functions and generating functions, as well as joint distributions and the convergence properties of sequences of random variables. Includes worked examples and over 250 exercises with solutions.

  11. Classical probability model for Bell inequality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khrennikov, Andrei

    2014-01-01

    We show that by taking into account randomness of realization of experimental contexts it is possible to construct common Kolmogorov space for data collected for these contexts, although they can be incompatible. We call such a construction 'Kolmogorovization' of contextuality. This construction of common probability space is applied to Bell's inequality. It is well known that its violation is a consequence of collecting statistical data in a few incompatible experiments. In experiments performed in quantum optics contexts are determined by selections of pairs of angles (θ i ,θ ' j ) fixing orientations of polarization beam splitters. Opposite to the common opinion, we show that statistical data corresponding to measurements of polarizations of photons in the singlet state, e.g., in the form of correlations, can be described in the classical probabilistic framework. The crucial point is that in constructing the common probability space one has to take into account not only randomness of the source (as Bell did), but also randomness of context-realizations (in particular, realizations of pairs of angles (θ i , θ ' j )). One may (but need not) say that randomness of 'free will' has to be accounted for.

  12. Contributions to quantum probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fritz, Tobias

    2010-01-01

    Chapter 1: On the existence of quantum representations for two dichotomic measurements. Under which conditions do outcome probabilities of measurements possess a quantum-mechanical model? This kind of problem is solved here for the case of two dichotomic von Neumann measurements which can be applied repeatedly to a quantum system with trivial dynamics. The solution uses methods from the theory of operator algebras and the theory of moment problems. The ensuing conditions reveal surprisingly simple relations between certain quantum-mechanical probabilities. It also shown that generally, none of these relations holds in general probabilistic models. This result might facilitate further experimental discrimination between quantum mechanics and other general probabilistic theories. Chapter 2: Possibilistic Physics. I try to outline a framework for fundamental physics where the concept of probability gets replaced by the concept of possibility. Whereas a probabilistic theory assigns a state-dependent probability value to each outcome of each measurement, a possibilistic theory merely assigns one of the state-dependent labels ''possible to occur'' or ''impossible to occur'' to each outcome of each measurement. It is argued that Spekkens' combinatorial toy theory of quantum mechanics is inconsistent in a probabilistic framework, but can be regarded as possibilistic. Then, I introduce the concept of possibilistic local hidden variable models and derive a class of possibilistic Bell inequalities which are violated for the possibilistic Popescu-Rohrlich boxes. The chapter ends with a philosophical discussion on possibilistic vs. probabilistic. It can be argued that, due to better falsifiability properties, a possibilistic theory has higher predictive power than a probabilistic one. Chapter 3: The quantum region for von Neumann measurements with postselection. It is determined under which conditions a probability distribution on a finite set can occur as the outcome

  13. Contributions to quantum probability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fritz, Tobias

    2010-06-25

    Chapter 1: On the existence of quantum representations for two dichotomic measurements. Under which conditions do outcome probabilities of measurements possess a quantum-mechanical model? This kind of problem is solved here for the case of two dichotomic von Neumann measurements which can be applied repeatedly to a quantum system with trivial dynamics. The solution uses methods from the theory of operator algebras and the theory of moment problems. The ensuing conditions reveal surprisingly simple relations between certain quantum-mechanical probabilities. It also shown that generally, none of these relations holds in general probabilistic models. This result might facilitate further experimental discrimination between quantum mechanics and other general probabilistic theories. Chapter 2: Possibilistic Physics. I try to outline a framework for fundamental physics where the concept of probability gets replaced by the concept of possibility. Whereas a probabilistic theory assigns a state-dependent probability value to each outcome of each measurement, a possibilistic theory merely assigns one of the state-dependent labels ''possible to occur'' or ''impossible to occur'' to each outcome of each measurement. It is argued that Spekkens' combinatorial toy theory of quantum mechanics is inconsistent in a probabilistic framework, but can be regarded as possibilistic. Then, I introduce the concept of possibilistic local hidden variable models and derive a class of possibilistic Bell inequalities which are violated for the possibilistic Popescu-Rohrlich boxes. The chapter ends with a philosophical discussion on possibilistic vs. probabilistic. It can be argued that, due to better falsifiability properties, a possibilistic theory has higher predictive power than a probabilistic one. Chapter 3: The quantum region for von Neumann measurements with postselection. It is determined under which conditions a probability distribution on a

  14. Random measurement error: Why worry? An example of cardiovascular risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brakenhoff, Timo B; van Smeden, Maarten; Visseren, Frank L J; Groenwold, Rolf H H

    2018-01-01

    With the increased use of data not originally recorded for research, such as routine care data (or 'big data'), measurement error is bound to become an increasingly relevant problem in medical research. A common view among medical researchers on the influence of random measurement error (i.e. classical measurement error) is that its presence leads to some degree of systematic underestimation of studied exposure-outcome relations (i.e. attenuation of the effect estimate). For the common situation where the analysis involves at least one exposure and one confounder, we demonstrate that the direction of effect of random measurement error on the estimated exposure-outcome relations can be difficult to anticipate. Using three example studies on cardiovascular risk factors, we illustrate that random measurement error in the exposure and/or confounder can lead to underestimation as well as overestimation of exposure-outcome relations. We therefore advise medical researchers to refrain from making claims about the direction of effect of measurement error in their manuscripts, unless the appropriate inferential tools are used to study or alleviate the impact of measurement error from the analysis.

  15. Random measurement error: Why worry? An example of cardiovascular risk factors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timo B Brakenhoff

    Full Text Available With the increased use of data not originally recorded for research, such as routine care data (or 'big data', measurement error is bound to become an increasingly relevant problem in medical research. A common view among medical researchers on the influence of random measurement error (i.e. classical measurement error is that its presence leads to some degree of systematic underestimation of studied exposure-outcome relations (i.e. attenuation of the effect estimate. For the common situation where the analysis involves at least one exposure and one confounder, we demonstrate that the direction of effect of random measurement error on the estimated exposure-outcome relations can be difficult to anticipate. Using three example studies on cardiovascular risk factors, we illustrate that random measurement error in the exposure and/or confounder can lead to underestimation as well as overestimation of exposure-outcome relations. We therefore advise medical researchers to refrain from making claims about the direction of effect of measurement error in their manuscripts, unless the appropriate inferential tools are used to study or alleviate the impact of measurement error from the analysis.

  16. Studies on the radioactive contamination due to nuclear detonations III. On the method of estimating the probable time of nuclear detonation from the measurements of gross-activity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nishiwaki, Yasushi [Nuclear Reactor Laboratory, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo (Japan); Nuclear Reactor Laboratoroy, Kinki University, Fuse City, Osaka Precture (Japan)

    1961-11-25

    Since it has been observed in Spring of 1954 that a considerable amount of fission products mixture fell with the rain following a large scale nuclear detonation conducted in Bikini area in the South Pacific by the United States Atomic Energy Commission, it has become important, especially from the health physics standpoint, to estimate the effective average age of the fission products mixture after the nuclear detonation. If the energy transferred to the atmospheric air at the time of nuclear detonation is large enough (order of megaton at the distance of about 4000 km), the probable time and test site of nuclear detonation may be estimated with considerable accuracy, from the records of the pressure wave caused by the detonation in the microbarographs at different meteorological stations. Even in this case, in order to estimate the possible correlation between the artificial radioactivity observed in the rain and the probable detonation, it is often times desirable to estimate the effective age of the fission products mixture in the rain from the decay measurement of the radioactivity.

  17. Studies on the radioactive contamination due to nuclear detonations III. On the method of estimating the probable time of nuclear detonation from the measurements of gross-activity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nishiwaki, Yasushi

    1961-01-01

    Since it has been observed in Spring of 1954 that a considerable amount of fission products mixture fell with the rain following a large scale nuclear detonation conducted in Bikini area in the South Pacific by the United States Atomic Energy Commission, it has become important, especially from the health physics standpoint, to estimate the effective average age of the fission products mixture after the nuclear detonation. If the energy transferred to the atmospheric air at the time of nuclear detonation is large enough (order of megaton at the distance of about 4000 km), the probable time and test site of nuclear detonation may be estimated with considerable accuracy, from the records of the pressure wave caused by the detonation in the microbarographs at different meteorological stations. Even in this case, in order to estimate the possible correlation between the artificial radioactivity observed in the rain and the probable detonation, it is often times desirable to estimate the effective age of the fission products mixture in the rain from the decay measurement of the radioactivity

  18. Zero-inflated count models for longitudinal measurements with heterogeneous random effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Huirong; Luo, Sheng; DeSantis, Stacia M

    2017-08-01

    Longitudinal zero-inflated count data arise frequently in substance use research when assessing the effects of behavioral and pharmacological interventions. Zero-inflated count models (e.g. zero-inflated Poisson or zero-inflated negative binomial) with random effects have been developed to analyze this type of data. In random effects zero-inflated count models, the random effects covariance matrix is typically assumed to be homogeneous (constant across subjects). However, in many situations this matrix may be heterogeneous (differ by measured covariates). In this paper, we extend zero-inflated count models to account for random effects heterogeneity by modeling their variance as a function of covariates. We show via simulation that ignoring intervention and covariate-specific heterogeneity can produce biased estimates of covariate and random effect estimates. Moreover, those biased estimates can be rectified by correctly modeling the random effects covariance structure. The methodological development is motivated by and applied to the Combined Pharmacotherapies and Behavioral Interventions for Alcohol Dependence (COMBINE) study, the largest clinical trial of alcohol dependence performed in United States with 1383 individuals.

  19. Standardized Effect Size Measures for Mediation Analysis in Cluster-Randomized Trials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stapleton, Laura M.; Pituch, Keenan A.; Dion, Eric

    2015-01-01

    This article presents 3 standardized effect size measures to use when sharing results of an analysis of mediation of treatment effects for cluster-randomized trials. The authors discuss 3 examples of mediation analysis (upper-level mediation, cross-level mediation, and cross-level mediation with a contextual effect) with demonstration of the…

  20. Robust state estimation for double pantographs with random missing measurements in high-speed railway

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lu, Xiaobing; Liu, Zhigang; Wang, Yanbo

    2016-01-01

    Active control of pantograph could be performed to decrease the fluctuation in pantograph-catenary contact force (PCCF) in high-speed railway. However, it is difficult to obtain the states of the pantograph when state feedback control is implemented. And the measurements may randomly miss due...

  1. Online evolution reconstruction from a single measurement record with random time intervals for quantum communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Hua; Su, Yang; Wang, Rong; Zhu, Yong; Shen, Huiping; Pu, Tao; Wu, Chuanxin; Zhao, Jiyong; Zhang, Baofu; Xu, Zhiyong

    2017-10-01

    Online reconstruction of a time-variant quantum state from the encoding/decoding results of quantum communication is addressed by developing a method of evolution reconstruction from a single measurement record with random time intervals. A time-variant two-dimensional state is reconstructed on the basis of recovering its expectation value functions of three nonorthogonal projectors from a random single measurement record, which is composed from the discarded qubits of the six-state protocol. The simulated results prove that our method is robust to typical metro quantum channels. Our work extends the Fourier-based method of evolution reconstruction from the version for a regular single measurement record with equal time intervals to a unified one, which can be applied to arbitrary single measurement records. The proposed protocol of evolution reconstruction runs concurrently with the one of quantum communication, which can facilitate the online quantum tomography.

  2. Visibility and aerosol measurement by diode-laser random-modulation CW lidar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takeuchi, N.; Baba, H.; Sakurai, K.; Ueno, T.; Ishikawa, N.

    1986-01-01

    Examples of diode laser (DL) random-modulation continuous wave (RM-CW) lidar measurements are reported. The ability of the measurement of the visibility, vertical aerosol profile, and the cloud ceiling height is demonstrated. Although the data shown here were all measured at night time, the daytime measurement is, of course, possible. For that purpose, accurate control of the laser frequency to the center frequency of a narrow band filter is required. Now a new system with a frequency control is under construction.

  3. On Probability Leakage

    OpenAIRE

    Briggs, William M.

    2012-01-01

    The probability leakage of model M with respect to evidence E is defined. Probability leakage is a kind of model error. It occurs when M implies that events $y$, which are impossible given E, have positive probability. Leakage does not imply model falsification. Models with probability leakage cannot be calibrated empirically. Regression models, which are ubiquitous in statistical practice, often evince probability leakage.

  4. Necessary conditions for the invariant measure of a random walk to be a sum of geometric terms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, Y.; Boucherie, Richardus J.; Goseling, Jasper

    We consider the invariant measure of homogeneous random walks in the quarter-plane. In particular, we consider measures that can be expressed as an infinite sum of geometric terms. We present necessary conditions for the invariant measure of a random walk to be a sum of geometric terms. We

  5. Device to detect the presence of a pure signal in a discrete noisy signal measured at an average rate of constant noise with a probability of false detection lower than one predeterminated

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poussier, E.; Rambaut, M.

    1986-01-01

    Detection consists of a measurement of a counting rate. A probability of wrong detection is associated with this counting rate and with an average estimated rate of noise. Detection consists also in comparing the wrong detection probability to a predeterminated rate of wrong detection. The comparison can use tabulated values. Application is made to corpuscule radiation detection [fr

  6. Expected utility with lower probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendon, Ebbe; Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen; Sloth, Birgitte

    1994-01-01

    An uncertain and not just risky situation may be modeled using so-called belief functions assigning lower probabilities to subsets of outcomes. In this article we extend the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory from probability measures to belief functions. We use this theory...

  7. Probability 1/e

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koo, Reginald; Jones, Martin L.

    2011-01-01

    Quite a number of interesting problems in probability feature an event with probability equal to 1/e. This article discusses three such problems and attempts to explain why this probability occurs with such frequency.

  8. Probability an introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Goldberg, Samuel

    1960-01-01

    Excellent basic text covers set theory, probability theory for finite sample spaces, binomial theorem, probability distributions, means, standard deviations, probability function of binomial distribution, more. Includes 360 problems with answers for half.

  9. Probability, random processes, and ergodic properties

    CERN Document Server

    Gray, Robert M

    2014-01-01

    In this new edition of this classic text, much of the material has been rearranged and revised for pedagogical reasons. Many classic inequalities and proofs are now incorporated into the text, and many citations have been added.

  10. Statistical power in parallel group point exposure studies with time-to-event outcomes: an empirical comparison of the performance of randomized controlled trials and the inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Peter C; Schuster, Tibor; Platt, Robert W

    2015-10-15

    Estimating statistical power is an important component of the design of both randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and observational studies. Methods for estimating statistical power in RCTs have been well described and can be implemented simply. In observational studies, statistical methods must be used to remove the effects of confounding that can occur due to non-random treatment assignment. Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) using the propensity score is an attractive method for estimating the effects of treatment using observational data. However, sample size and power calculations have not been adequately described for these methods. We used an extensive series of Monte Carlo simulations to compare the statistical power of an IPTW analysis of an observational study with time-to-event outcomes with that of an analysis of a similarly-structured RCT. We examined the impact of four factors on the statistical power function: number of observed events, prevalence of treatment, the marginal hazard ratio, and the strength of the treatment-selection process. We found that, on average, an IPTW analysis had lower statistical power compared to an analysis of a similarly-structured RCT. The difference in statistical power increased as the magnitude of the treatment-selection model increased. The statistical power of an IPTW analysis tended to be lower than the statistical power of a similarly-structured RCT.

  11. Probability via expectation

    CERN Document Server

    Whittle, Peter

    1992-01-01

    This book is a complete revision of the earlier work Probability which ap­ peared in 1970. While revised so radically and incorporating so much new material as to amount to a new text, it preserves both the aim and the approach of the original. That aim was stated as the provision of a 'first text in probability, de­ manding a reasonable but not extensive knowledge of mathematics, and taking the reader to what one might describe as a good intermediate level'. In doing so it attempted to break away from stereotyped applications, and consider applications of a more novel and significant character. The particular novelty of the approach was that expectation was taken as the prime concept, and the concept of expectation axiomatized rather than that of a probability measure. In the preface to the original text of 1970 (reproduced below, together with that to the Russian edition of 1982) I listed what I saw as the advantages of the approach in as unlaboured a fashion as I could. I also took the view that the text...

  12. Variances as order parameter and complexity measure for random Boolean networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luque, Bartolo; Ballesteros, Fernando J; Fernandez, Manuel

    2005-01-01

    Several order parameters have been considered to predict and characterize the transition between ordered and disordered phases in random Boolean networks, such as the Hamming distance between replicas or the stable core, which have been successfully used. In this work, we propose a natural and clear new order parameter: the temporal variance. We compute its value analytically and compare it with the results of numerical experiments. Finally, we propose a complexity measure based on the compromise between temporal and spatial variances. This new order parameter and its related complexity measure can be easily applied to other complex systems

  13. Variances as order parameter and complexity measure for random Boolean networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luque, Bartolo [Departamento de Matematica Aplicada y EstadIstica, Escuela Superior de Ingenieros Aeronauticos, Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, Plaza Cardenal Cisneros 3, Madrid 28040 (Spain); Ballesteros, Fernando J [Observatori Astronomic, Universitat de Valencia, Ed. Instituts d' Investigacio, Pol. La Coma s/n, E-46980 Paterna, Valencia (Spain); Fernandez, Manuel [Departamento de Matematica Aplicada y EstadIstica, Escuela Superior de Ingenieros Aeronauticos, Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, Plaza Cardenal Cisneros 3, Madrid 28040 (Spain)

    2005-02-04

    Several order parameters have been considered to predict and characterize the transition between ordered and disordered phases in random Boolean networks, such as the Hamming distance between replicas or the stable core, which have been successfully used. In this work, we propose a natural and clear new order parameter: the temporal variance. We compute its value analytically and compare it with the results of numerical experiments. Finally, we propose a complexity measure based on the compromise between temporal and spatial variances. This new order parameter and its related complexity measure can be easily applied to other complex systems.

  14. Basic properties of the current-current correlation measure for random Schroedinger operators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hislop, Peter D.; Lenoble, Olivier

    2006-01-01

    The current-current correlation measure plays a crucial role in the theory of conductivity for disordered systems. We prove a Pastur-Shubin-type formula for the current-current correlation measure expressing it as a thermodynamic limit for random Schroedinger operators on the lattice and the continuum. We prove that the limit is independent of the self-adjoint boundary conditions and independent of a large family of expanding regions. We relate this finite-volume definition to the definition obtained by using the infinite-volume operators and the trace-per-unit volume

  15. How to Measure Motivational Interviewing Fidelity in Randomized Controlled Trials: Practical Recommendations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jelsma, Judith G M; Mertens, Vera-Christina; Forsberg, Lisa; Forsberg, Lars

    2015-07-01

    Many randomized controlled trials in which motivational interviewing (MI) is a key intervention make no provision for the assessment of treatment fidelity. This methodological shortcoming makes it impossible to distinguish between high- and low-quality MI interventions, and, consequently, to know whether MI provision has contributed to any intervention effects. This article makes some practical recommendations for the collection, selection, coding and reporting of MI fidelity data, as measured using the Motivational Interviewing Treatment Integrity Code. We hope that researchers will consider these recommendations and include MI fidelity measures in future studies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Reconstruction of photon number conditioned states using phase randomized homodyne measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chrzanowski, H M; Assad, S M; Bernu, J; Hage, B; Lam, P K; Symul, T; Lund, A P; Ralph, T C

    2013-01-01

    We experimentally demonstrate the reconstruction of a photon number conditioned state without using a photon number discriminating detector. By using only phase randomized homodyne measurements, we reconstruct up to the three photon subtracted squeezed vacuum state. The reconstructed Wigner functions of these states show regions of pronounced negativity, signifying the non-classical nature of the reconstructed states. The techniques presented allow for complete characterization of the role of a conditional measurement on an ensemble of states, and might prove useful in systems where photon counting still proves technically challenging. (paper)

  17. Probably not future prediction using probability and statistical inference

    CERN Document Server

    Dworsky, Lawrence N

    2008-01-01

    An engaging, entertaining, and informative introduction to probability and prediction in our everyday lives Although Probably Not deals with probability and statistics, it is not heavily mathematical and is not filled with complex derivations, proofs, and theoretical problem sets. This book unveils the world of statistics through questions such as what is known based upon the information at hand and what can be expected to happen. While learning essential concepts including "the confidence factor" and "random walks," readers will be entertained and intrigued as they move from chapter to chapter. Moreover, the author provides a foundation of basic principles to guide decision making in almost all facets of life including playing games, developing winning business strategies, and managing personal finances. Much of the book is organized around easy-to-follow examples that address common, everyday issues such as: How travel time is affected by congestion, driving speed, and traffic lights Why different gambling ...

  18. Automated analysis of flow cytometric data for measuring neutrophil CD64 expression using a multi-instrument compatible probability state model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Linda; Hill, Beth L; Hunsberger, Benjamin C; Bagwell, C Bruce; Curtis, Adam D; Davis, Bruce H

    2015-01-01

    Leuko64™ (Trillium Diagnostics) is a flow cytometric assay that measures neutrophil CD64 expression and serves as an in vitro indicator of infection/sepsis or the presence of a systemic acute inflammatory response. Leuko64 assay currently utilizes QuantiCALC, a semiautomated software that employs cluster algorithms to define cell populations. The software reduces subjective gating decisions, resulting in interanalyst variability of state modeling (PSM). Four hundred and fifty-seven human blood samples were processed using the Leuko64 assay. Samples were analyzed on four different flow cytometer models: BD FACSCanto II, BD FACScan, BC Gallios/Navios, and BC FC500. A probability state model was designed to identify calibration beads and three leukocyte subpopulations based on differences in intensity levels of several parameters. PSM automatically calculates CD64 index values for each cell population using equations programmed into the model. GemStone software uses PSM that requires no operator intervention, thus totally automating data analysis and internal quality control flagging. Expert analysis with the predicate method (QuantiCALC) was performed. Interanalyst precision was evaluated for both methods of data analysis. PSM with GemStone correlates well with the expert manual analysis, r(2) = 0.99675 for the neutrophil CD64 index values with no intermethod bias detected. The average interanalyst imprecision for the QuantiCALC method was 1.06% (range 0.00-7.94%), which was reduced to 0.00% with the GemStone PSM. The operator-to-operator agreement in GemStone was a perfect correlation, r(2) = 1.000. Automated quantification of CD64 index values produced results that strongly correlate with expert analysis using a standard gate-based data analysis method. PSM successfully evaluated flow cytometric data generated by multiple instruments across multiple lots of the Leuko64 kit in all 457 cases. The probability-based method provides greater objectivity, higher

  19. Morphological changes after pelvic floor muscle training measured by 3-dimensional ultrasonography: a randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braekken, Ingeborg Hoff; Hoff Braekken, Ingeborg; Majida, Memona; Engh, Marie Ellström; Bø, Kari

    2010-02-01

    To investigate morphological and functional changes after pelvic floor muscle training in women with pelvic organ prolapse. This randomized controlled trial was conducted at a university hospital and a physical therapy clinic. One hundred nine women with pelvic organ prolapse stages I, II, and III were randomly allocated by a computer-generated random number system to pelvic floor muscle training (n=59) or control (n=50). Both groups received lifestyle advice and learned to contract the pelvic floor muscles before and during increases in intraabdominal pressure. In addition the pelvic floor muscle training group did individual strength training with a physical therapist and daily home exercise for 6 months. Primary outcome measures were pelvic floor muscle (pubovisceral muscle) thickness, levator hiatus area, pubovisceral muscle length at rest and Valsalva, and resting position of bladder and rectum, measured by three-dimensional ultrasonography. Seventy-nine percent of women in the pelvic floor muscle training group adhered to at least 80% of the training protocol. Compared with women in the control group, women in the pelvic floor muscle training group increased muscle thickness (difference between groups: 1.9 mm, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1-2.7, Ppelvic floor muscle stiffness. Supervised pelvic floor muscle training can increase muscle volume, close the levator hiatus, shorten muscle length, and elevate the resting position of the bladder and rectum. www.clinicaltrials.gov, NCT00271297. I.

  20. Six weeks of structured exercise training and hypocaloric diet increases the probability of ovulation after clomiphene citrate in overweight and obese patients with polycystic ovary syndrome: a randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palomba, S; Falbo, A; Giallauria, F; Russo, T; Rocca, M; Tolino, A; Zullo, F; Orio, F

    2010-11-01

    Clomiphene citrate (CC) is the first-line therapy for the induction of ovulation in infertile women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), but ∼20% of patients are unresponsive. The aim of the current study was to test the hypothesis that a 6-week intervention that consisted of structured exercise training (SET) and hypocaloric diet increases the probability of ovulation after CC in overweight and obese CC-resistant PCOS patients. A cohort of 96 overweight and obese CC-resistant PCOS patients was enrolled consecutively in a three-arm randomized, parallel, controlled, assessor-blinded clinical trial. The three interventions were: SET plus hypocaloric diet for 6 weeks (Group A); 2 weeks of observation followed by one cycle of CC therapy (Group B); and SET plus hypocaloric diet for 6 weeks, with one cycle of CC after the first 2 weeks (Group C). The primary end-point was the ovulation rate. Other reproductive data, as well as anthropometric, hormonal and metabolic data, were also collected and considered as secondary end points. After 6 weeks of SET plus hypocaloric diet, the ovulation rate was significantly (P =0.008) higher in Group C [12/32 (37.5%)] than in Groups A [4/32 (12.5%)] and B [3/32 (9.4%)] with relative risks of 3.9 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1-8.3; P = 0.035] and 4.0 (95% CI 1.2-12.8; P = 0.020) compared with Groups A and B, respectively. Compared with baseline, in Groups A and C, a significant improvement in clinical and biochemical androgen and insulin sensitivity indexes was observed. In the same two groups, the insulin sensitivity index was significantly (P hypocaloric diet was effective in increasing the probability of ovulation under CC treatment. The study was registered at Clinicaltrials.gov:NCT0100468.

  1. A homodyne detector integrated onto a photonic chip for measuring quantum states and generating random numbers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raffaelli, Francesco; Ferranti, Giacomo; Mahler, Dylan H.; Sibson, Philip; Kennard, Jake E.; Santamato, Alberto; Sinclair, Gary; Bonneau, Damien; Thompson, Mark G.; Matthews, Jonathan C. F.

    2018-04-01

    Optical homodyne detection has found use as a characterisation tool in a range of quantum technologies. So far implementations have been limited to bulk optics. Here we present the optical integration of a homodyne detector onto a silicon photonics chip. The resulting device operates at high speed, up 150 MHz, it is compact and it operates with low noise, quantified with 11 dB clearance between shot noise and electronic noise. We perform on-chip quantum tomography of coherent states with the detector and show that it meets the requirements for characterising more general quantum states of light. We also show that the detector is able to produce quantum random numbers at a rate of 1.2 Gbps, by measuring the vacuum state of the electromagnetic field and applying off-line post processing. The produced random numbers pass all the statistical tests provided by the NIST test suite.

  2. Invariant probabilities of transition functions

    CERN Document Server

    Zaharopol, Radu

    2014-01-01

    The structure of the set of all the invariant probabilities and the structure of various types of individual invariant probabilities of a transition function are two topics of significant interest in the theory of transition functions, and are studied in this book. The results obtained are useful in ergodic theory and the theory of dynamical systems, which, in turn, can be applied in various other areas (like number theory). They are illustrated using transition functions defined by flows, semiflows, and one-parameter convolution semigroups of probability measures. In this book, all results on transition probabilities that have been published by the author between 2004 and 2008 are extended to transition functions. The proofs of the results obtained are new. For transition functions that satisfy very general conditions the book describes an ergodic decomposition that provides relevant information on the structure of the corresponding set of invariant probabilities. Ergodic decomposition means a splitting of t...

  3. Improving Pulse Rate Measurements during Random Motion Using a Wearable Multichannel Reflectance Photoplethysmograph

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristen M. Warren

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Photoplethysmographic (PPG waveforms are used to acquire pulse rate (PR measurements from pulsatile arterial blood volume. PPG waveforms are highly susceptible to motion artifacts (MA, limiting the implementation of PR measurements in mobile physiological monitoring devices. Previous studies have shown that multichannel photoplethysmograms can successfully acquire diverse signal information during simple, repetitive motion, leading to differences in motion tolerance across channels. In this paper, we investigate the performance of a custom-built multichannel forehead-mounted photoplethysmographic sensor under a variety of intense motion artifacts. We introduce an advanced multichannel template-matching algorithm that chooses the channel with the least motion artifact to calculate PR for each time instant. We show that for a wide variety of random motion, channels respond differently to motion artifacts, and the multichannel estimate outperforms single-channel estimates in terms of motion tolerance, signal quality, and PR errors. We have acquired 31 data sets consisting of PPG waveforms corrupted by random motion and show that the accuracy of PR measurements achieved was increased by up to 2.7 bpm when the multichannel-switching algorithm was compared to individual channels. The percentage of PR measurements with error ≤ 5 bpm during motion increased by 18.9% when the multichannel switching algorithm was compared to the mean PR from all channels. Moreover, our algorithm enables automatic selection of the best signal fidelity channel at each time point among the multichannel PPG data.

  4. Probability mapping of contaminants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rautman, C.A.; Kaplan, P.G. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); McGraw, M.A. [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Istok, J.D. [Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR (United States); Sigda, J.M. [New Mexico Inst. of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM (United States)

    1994-04-01

    Exhaustive characterization of a contaminated site is a physical and practical impossibility. Descriptions of the nature, extent, and level of contamination, as well as decisions regarding proposed remediation activities, must be made in a state of uncertainty based upon limited physical sampling. The probability mapping approach illustrated in this paper appears to offer site operators a reasonable, quantitative methodology for many environmental remediation decisions and allows evaluation of the risk associated with those decisions. For example, output from this approach can be used in quantitative, cost-based decision models for evaluating possible site characterization and/or remediation plans, resulting in selection of the risk-adjusted, least-cost alternative. The methodology is completely general, and the techniques are applicable to a wide variety of environmental restoration projects. The probability-mapping approach is illustrated by application to a contaminated site at the former DOE Feed Materials Production Center near Fernald, Ohio. Soil geochemical data, collected as part of the Uranium-in-Soils Integrated Demonstration Project, have been used to construct a number of geostatistical simulations of potential contamination for parcels approximately the size of a selective remediation unit (the 3-m width of a bulldozer blade). Each such simulation accurately reflects the actual measured sample values, and reproduces the univariate statistics and spatial character of the extant data. Post-processing of a large number of these equally likely statistically similar images produces maps directly showing the probability of exceeding specified levels of contamination (potential clean-up or personnel-hazard thresholds).

  5. Probability mapping of contaminants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rautman, C.A.; Kaplan, P.G.; McGraw, M.A.; Istok, J.D.; Sigda, J.M.

    1994-01-01

    Exhaustive characterization of a contaminated site is a physical and practical impossibility. Descriptions of the nature, extent, and level of contamination, as well as decisions regarding proposed remediation activities, must be made in a state of uncertainty based upon limited physical sampling. The probability mapping approach illustrated in this paper appears to offer site operators a reasonable, quantitative methodology for many environmental remediation decisions and allows evaluation of the risk associated with those decisions. For example, output from this approach can be used in quantitative, cost-based decision models for evaluating possible site characterization and/or remediation plans, resulting in selection of the risk-adjusted, least-cost alternative. The methodology is completely general, and the techniques are applicable to a wide variety of environmental restoration projects. The probability-mapping approach is illustrated by application to a contaminated site at the former DOE Feed Materials Production Center near Fernald, Ohio. Soil geochemical data, collected as part of the Uranium-in-Soils Integrated Demonstration Project, have been used to construct a number of geostatistical simulations of potential contamination for parcels approximately the size of a selective remediation unit (the 3-m width of a bulldozer blade). Each such simulation accurately reflects the actual measured sample values, and reproduces the univariate statistics and spatial character of the extant data. Post-processing of a large number of these equally likely statistically similar images produces maps directly showing the probability of exceeding specified levels of contamination (potential clean-up or personnel-hazard thresholds)

  6. Ellipsometry measurements of glass transition breadth in bulk films of random, block, and gradient copolymers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mok, M M; Kim, J; Marrou, S R; Torkelson, J M

    2010-03-01

    Bulk films of random, block and gradient copolymer systems were studied using ellipsometry to demonstrate the applicability of the numerical differentiation technique pioneered by Kawana and Jones for studying the glass transition temperature (T (g)) behavior and thermal expansivities of copolymers possessing different architectures and different levels of nanoheterogeneity. In a series of styrene/n -butyl methacrylate (S/nBMA) random copolymers, T (g) breadths were observed to increase from approximately 17( degrees ) C in styrene-rich cases to almost 30( degrees ) C in nBMA-rich cases, reflecting previous observations of significant nanoheterogeneity in PnBMA homopolymers. The derivative technique also revealed for the first time a substantial increase in glassy-state expansivity with increasing nBMA content in S/nBMA random copolymers, from 1.4x10(-4) K-1 in PS to 3.5x10(-4) K-1 in PnBMA. The first characterization of block copolymer T (g) 's and T (g) breadths by ellipsometry is given, examining the impact of nanophase-segregated copolymer structure on ellipsometric measurements of glass transition. The results show that, while the technique is effective in detecting the two T (g) 's expected in certain block copolymer systems, the details of the glass transition can become suppressed in ellipsometry measurements of a rubbery minor phase under conditions where the matrix is glassy; meanwhile, both transitions are easily discernible by differential scanning calorimetry. Finally, broad glass transition regions were measured in gradient copolymers, yielding in some cases extraordinary T (g) breadths of 69- 71( degrees ) C , factors of 4-5 larger than the T (g) breadths of related homopolymers and random copolymers. Surprisingly, one gradient copolymer demonstrated a slightly narrower T (g) breadth than the S/nBMA random copolymers with the highest nBMA content. This highlights the fact that nanoheterogeneity relevant to the glass transition response in selected

  7. Random walk-based similarity measure method for patterns in complex object

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu Shihu

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses the similarity of the patterns in complex objects. The complex object is composed both of the attribute information of patterns and the relational information between patterns. Bearing in mind the specificity of complex object, a random walk-based similarity measurement method for patterns is constructed. In this method, the reachability of any two patterns with respect to the relational information is fully studied, and in the case of similarity of patterns with respect to the relational information can be calculated. On this bases, an integrated similarity measurement method is proposed, and algorithms 1 and 2 show the performed calculation procedure. One can find that this method makes full use of the attribute information and relational information. Finally, a synthetic example shows that our proposed similarity measurement method is validated.

  8. Hardware random number generator base on monostable multivibrators dedicated for distributed measurement and control systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czernik, Pawel

    2013-10-01

    The hardware random number generator based on the 74121 monostable multivibrators for applications in cryptographically secure distributed measurement and control systems with asymmetric resources was presented. This device was implemented on the basis of the physical electronic vibration generator in which the circuit is composed of two "loop" 74121 monostable multivibrators, D flip-flop and external clock signal source. The clock signal, witch control D flip-flop was generated by a computer on one of the parallel port pins. There was presented programmed the author's acquisition process of random data from the measuring system to a computer. The presented system was designed, builded and thoroughly tested in the term of cryptographic security in our laboratory, what there is the most important part of this publication. Real cryptographic security was tested based on the author's software and the software environment called RDieHarder. The obtained results was here presented and analyzed in detail with particular reference to the specificity of distributed measurement and control systems with asymmetric resources.

  9. Estimating random transverse velocities in the fast solar wind from EISCAT Interplanetary Scintillation measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Canals

    2002-09-01

    Full Text Available Interplanetary scintillation measurements can yield estimates of a large number of solar wind parameters, including bulk flow speed, variation in bulk velocity along the observing path through the solar wind and random variation in transverse velocity. This last parameter is of particular interest, as it can indicate the flux of low-frequency Alfvén waves, and the dissipation of these waves has been proposed as an acceleration mechanism for the fast solar wind. Analysis of IPS data is, however, a significantly unresolved problem and a variety of a priori assumptions must be made in interpreting the data. Furthermore, the results may be affected by the physical structure of the radio source and by variations in the solar wind along the scintillation ray path. We have used observations of simple point-like radio sources made with EISCAT between 1994 and 1998 to obtain estimates of random transverse velocity in the fast solar wind. The results obtained with various a priori assumptions made in the analysis are compared, and we hope thereby to be able to provide some indication of the reliability of our estimates of random transverse velocity and the variation of this parameter with distance from the Sun.Key words. Interplanetary physics (MHD waves and turbulence; solar wind plasma; instruments and techniques

  10. Estimating random transverse velocities in the fast solar wind from EISCAT Interplanetary Scintillation measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Canals

    Full Text Available Interplanetary scintillation measurements can yield estimates of a large number of solar wind parameters, including bulk flow speed, variation in bulk velocity along the observing path through the solar wind and random variation in transverse velocity. This last parameter is of particular interest, as it can indicate the flux of low-frequency Alfvén waves, and the dissipation of these waves has been proposed as an acceleration mechanism for the fast solar wind. Analysis of IPS data is, however, a significantly unresolved problem and a variety of a priori assumptions must be made in interpreting the data. Furthermore, the results may be affected by the physical structure of the radio source and by variations in the solar wind along the scintillation ray path. We have used observations of simple point-like radio sources made with EISCAT between 1994 and 1998 to obtain estimates of random transverse velocity in the fast solar wind. The results obtained with various a priori assumptions made in the analysis are compared, and we hope thereby to be able to provide some indication of the reliability of our estimates of random transverse velocity and the variation of this parameter with distance from the Sun.

    Key words. Interplanetary physics (MHD waves and turbulence; solar wind plasma; instruments and techniques

  11. Does level of specificity affect measures of motivation to comply? A randomized evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Branscum, Paul; Senkowski, Valerie

    2018-05-30

    The theory of planned behavior (TPB) is a popular value-expectancy model in social and behavioral health. Motivation to comply, one of the theory's constructs, has not been well operationalized and measured in the past, and to date, there has been no assessment of whether level of specificity affects the measurement of the construct. The purpose of this study was to measure the motivation to comply construct across four domains (from general to TACT-behavior specific) and evaluate the potential impact the differences have when identifying determinants of generalized injunctive norms. Students (n = 234) attending a large southwestern university completed a TPB survey related to sleep and physical activity, and were randomized to one of four domains that measured motivation to comply (General domain, n = 58; Health domain, n = 60; Behavioral domain, n = 56; and TACT domain, n = 60). Across both behaviors, motivation to comply measurements did not appear to be affected by changing the level of specificity. Referents for sleep and physical activity were mostly significant, but the effects were small to medium. Future researchers should consider removing motivation to comply measures from TPB surveys to reduce respondent burden or find alternative ways of measuring the construct.

  12. Philosophical theories of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Gillies, Donald

    2000-01-01

    The Twentieth Century has seen a dramatic rise in the use of probability and statistics in almost all fields of research. This has stimulated many new philosophical ideas on probability. Philosophical Theories of Probability is the first book to present a clear, comprehensive and systematic account of these various theories and to explain how they relate to one another. Gillies also offers a distinctive version of the propensity theory of probability, and the intersubjective interpretation, which develops the subjective theory.

  13. 47 CFR 1.1623 - Probability calculation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Probability calculation. 1.1623 Section 1.1623 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION GENERAL PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE Random Selection Procedures for Mass Media Services General Procedures § 1.1623 Probability calculation. (a) All calculations shall be...

  14. Simulations of Probabilities for Quantum Computing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zak, M.

    1996-01-01

    It has been demonstrated that classical probabilities, and in particular, probabilistic Turing machine, can be simulated by combining chaos and non-LIpschitz dynamics, without utilization of any man-made devices (such as random number generators). Self-organizing properties of systems coupling simulated and calculated probabilities and their link to quantum computations are discussed.

  15. An introduction to probability and stochastic processes

    CERN Document Server

    Melsa, James L

    2013-01-01

    Geared toward college seniors and first-year graduate students, this text is designed for a one-semester course in probability and stochastic processes. Topics covered in detail include probability theory, random variables and their functions, stochastic processes, linear system response to stochastic processes, Gaussian and Markov processes, and stochastic differential equations. 1973 edition.

  16. Nonprobability Web Surveys to Measure Sexual Behaviors and Attitudes in the General Population: A Comparison With a Probability Sample Interview Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkill, Sarah; Couper, Mick P; Conrad, Frederick; Clifton, Soazig; Tanton, Clare; Phelps, Andrew; Datta, Jessica; Mercer, Catherine H; Sonnenberg, Pam; Prah, Philip; Mitchell, Kirstin R; Wellings, Kaye; Johnson, Anne M; Copas, Andrew J

    2014-01-01

    Background Nonprobability Web surveys using volunteer panels can provide a relatively cheap and quick alternative to traditional health and epidemiological surveys. However, concerns have been raised about their representativeness. Objective The aim was to compare results from different Web panels with a population-based probability sample survey (n=8969 aged 18-44 years) that used computer-assisted self-interview (CASI) for sensitive behaviors, the third British National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (Natsal-3). Methods Natsal-3 questions were included on 4 nonprobability Web panel surveys (n=2000 to 2099), 2 using basic quotas based on age and sex, and 2 using modified quotas based on additional variables related to key estimates. Results for sociodemographic characteristics were compared with external benchmarks and for sexual behaviors and opinions with Natsal-3. Odds ratios (ORs) were used to express differences between the benchmark data and each survey for each variable of interest. A summary measure of survey performance was the average absolute OR across variables. Another summary measure was the number of key estimates for which the survey differed significantly (at the 5% level) from the benchmarks. Results For sociodemographic variables, the Web surveys were less representative of the general population than Natsal-3. For example, for men, the average absolute OR for Natsal-3 was 1.14, whereas for the Web surveys the average absolute ORs ranged from 1.86 to 2.30. For all Web surveys, approximately two-thirds of the key estimates of sexual behaviors were different from Natsal-3 and the average absolute ORs ranged from 1.32 to 1.98. Differences were appreciable even for questions asked by CASI in Natsal-3. No single Web survey performed consistently better than any other did. Modified quotas slightly improved results for men, but not for women. Conclusions Consistent with studies from other countries on less sensitive topics, volunteer Web

  17. Interpretations of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Khrennikov, Andrei

    2009-01-01

    This is the first fundamental book devoted to non-Kolmogorov probability models. It provides a mathematical theory of negative probabilities, with numerous applications to quantum physics, information theory, complexity, biology and psychology. The book also presents an interesting model of cognitive information reality with flows of information probabilities, describing the process of thinking, social, and psychological phenomena.

  18. Probability theory a foundational course

    CERN Document Server

    Pakshirajan, R P

    2013-01-01

    This book shares the dictum of J. L. Doob in treating Probability Theory as a branch of Measure Theory and establishes this relation early. Probability measures in product spaces are introduced right at the start by way of laying the ground work to later claim the existence of stochastic processes with prescribed finite dimensional distributions. Other topics analysed in the book include supports of probability measures, zero-one laws in product measure spaces, Erdos-Kac invariance principle, functional central limit theorem and functional law of the iterated logarithm for independent variables, Skorohod embedding, and the use of analytic functions of a complex variable in the study of geometric ergodicity in Markov chains. This book is offered as a text book for students pursuing graduate programs in Mathematics and or Statistics. The book aims to help the teacher present the theory with ease, and to help the student sustain his interest and joy in learning the subject.

  19. Linear positivity and virtual probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartle, James B.

    2004-01-01

    We investigate the quantum theory of closed systems based on the linear positivity decoherence condition of Goldstein and Page. The objective of any quantum theory of a closed system, most generally the universe, is the prediction of probabilities for the individual members of sets of alternative coarse-grained histories of the system. Quantum interference between members of a set of alternative histories is an obstacle to assigning probabilities that are consistent with the rules of probability theory. A quantum theory of closed systems therefore requires two elements: (1) a condition specifying which sets of histories may be assigned probabilities and (2) a rule for those probabilities. The linear positivity condition of Goldstein and Page is the weakest of the general conditions proposed so far. Its general properties relating to exact probability sum rules, time neutrality, and conservation laws are explored. Its inconsistency with the usual notion of independent subsystems in quantum mechanics is reviewed. Its relation to the stronger condition of medium decoherence necessary for classicality is discussed. The linear positivity of histories in a number of simple model systems is investigated with the aim of exhibiting linearly positive sets of histories that are not decoherent. The utility of extending the notion of probability to include values outside the range of 0-1 is described. Alternatives with such virtual probabilities cannot be measured or recorded, but can be used in the intermediate steps of calculations of real probabilities. Extended probabilities give a simple and general way of formulating quantum theory. The various decoherence conditions are compared in terms of their utility for characterizing classicality and the role they might play in further generalizations of quantum mechanics

  20. Normal probability plots with confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chantarangsi, Wanpen; Liu, Wei; Bretz, Frank; Kiatsupaibul, Seksan; Hayter, Anthony J; Wan, Fang

    2015-01-01

    Normal probability plots are widely used as a statistical tool for assessing whether an observed simple random sample is drawn from a normally distributed population. The users, however, have to judge subjectively, if no objective rule is provided, whether the plotted points fall close to a straight line. In this paper, we focus on how a normal probability plot can be augmented by intervals for all the points so that, if the population distribution is normal, then all the points should fall into the corresponding intervals simultaneously with probability 1-α. These simultaneous 1-α probability intervals provide therefore an objective mean to judge whether the plotted points fall close to the straight line: the plotted points fall close to the straight line if and only if all the points fall into the corresponding intervals. The powers of several normal probability plot based (graphical) tests and the most popular nongraphical Anderson-Darling and Shapiro-Wilk tests are compared by simulation. Based on this comparison, recommendations are given in Section 3 on which graphical tests should be used in what circumstances. An example is provided to illustrate the methods. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  1. Bayesian Nonparametric Regression Analysis of Data with Random Effects Covariates from Longitudinal Measurements

    KAUST Repository

    Ryu, Duchwan

    2010-09-28

    We consider nonparametric regression analysis in a generalized linear model (GLM) framework for data with covariates that are the subject-specific random effects of longitudinal measurements. The usual assumption that the effects of the longitudinal covariate processes are linear in the GLM may be unrealistic and if this happens it can cast doubt on the inference of observed covariate effects. Allowing the regression functions to be unknown, we propose to apply Bayesian nonparametric methods including cubic smoothing splines or P-splines for the possible nonlinearity and use an additive model in this complex setting. To improve computational efficiency, we propose the use of data-augmentation schemes. The approach allows flexible covariance structures for the random effects and within-subject measurement errors of the longitudinal processes. The posterior model space is explored through a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler. The proposed methods are illustrated and compared to other approaches, the "naive" approach and the regression calibration, via simulations and by an application that investigates the relationship between obesity in adulthood and childhood growth curves. © 2010, The International Biometric Society.

  2. Random walk hierarchy measure: What is more hierarchical, a chain, a tree or a star?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czégel, Dániel; Palla, Gergely

    2015-01-01

    Signs of hierarchy are prevalent in a wide range of systems in nature and society. One of the key problems is quantifying the importance of hierarchical organisation in the structure of the network representing the interactions or connections between the fundamental units of the studied system. Although a number of notable methods are already available, their vast majority is treating all directed acyclic graphs as already maximally hierarchical. Here we propose a hierarchy measure based on random walks on the network. The novelty of our approach is that directed trees corresponding to multi level pyramidal structures obtain higher hierarchy scores compared to directed chains and directed stars. Furthermore, in the thermodynamic limit the hierarchy measure of regular trees is converging to a well defined limit depending only on the branching number. When applied to real networks, our method is computationally very effective, as the result can be evaluated with arbitrary precision by subsequent multiplications of the transition matrix describing the random walk process. In addition, the tests on real world networks provided very intuitive results, e.g., the trophic levels obtained from our approach on a food web were highly consistent with former results from ecology. PMID:26657012

  3. Random walk hierarchy measure: What is more hierarchical, a chain, a tree or a star?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czégel, Dániel; Palla, Gergely

    2015-12-10

    Signs of hierarchy are prevalent in a wide range of systems in nature and society. One of the key problems is quantifying the importance of hierarchical organisation in the structure of the network representing the interactions or connections between the fundamental units of the studied system. Although a number of notable methods are already available, their vast majority is treating all directed acyclic graphs as already maximally hierarchical. Here we propose a hierarchy measure based on random walks on the network. The novelty of our approach is that directed trees corresponding to multi level pyramidal structures obtain higher hierarchy scores compared to directed chains and directed stars. Furthermore, in the thermodynamic limit the hierarchy measure of regular trees is converging to a well defined limit depending only on the branching number. When applied to real networks, our method is computationally very effective, as the result can be evaluated with arbitrary precision by subsequent multiplications of the transition matrix describing the random walk process. In addition, the tests on real world networks provided very intuitive results, e.g., the trophic levels obtained from our approach on a food web were highly consistent with former results from ecology.

  4. Some effects of random dose measurement errors on analysis of atomic bomb survivor data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilbert, E.S.

    1985-01-01

    The effects of random dose measurement errors on analyses of atomic bomb survivor data are described and quantified for several procedures. It is found that the ways in which measurement error is most likely to mislead are through downward bias in the estimated regression coefficients and through distortion of the shape of the dose-response curve. The magnitude of the bias with simple linear regression is evaluated for several dose treatments including the use of grouped and ungrouped data, analyses with and without truncation at 600 rad, and analyses which exclude doses exceeding 200 rad. Limited calculations have also been made for maximum likelihood estimation based on Poisson regression. 16 refs., 6 tabs

  5. Errors due to random noise in velocity measurement using incoherent-scatter radar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. J. S. Williams

    1996-12-01

    Full Text Available The random-noise errors involved in measuring the Doppler shift of an 'incoherent-scatter' spectrum are predicted theoretically for all values of Te/Ti from 1.0 to 3.0. After correction has been made for the effects of convolution during transmission and reception and the additional errors introduced by subtracting the average of the background gates, the rms errors can be expressed by a simple semi-empirical formula. The observed errors are determined from a comparison of simultaneous EISCAT measurements using an identical pulse code on several adjacent frequencies. The plot of observed versus predicted error has a slope of 0.991 and a correlation coefficient of 99.3%. The prediction also agrees well with the mean of the error distribution reported by the standard EISCAT analysis programme.

  6. Evaluation of domain randomness in periodically poled lithium niobate by diffraction noise measurement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dwivedi, Prashant Povel; Choi, Hee Joo; Kim, Byoung Joo; Cha, Myoungsik

    2013-12-16

    Random duty-cycle errors (RDE) in ferroelectric quasi-phase-matching (QPM) devices not only affect the frequency conversion efficiency, but also generate non-phase-matched parasitic noise that can be detrimental to some applications. We demonstrate an accurate but simple method for measuring the RDE in periodically poled lithium niobate. Due to the equivalence between the undepleted harmonic generation spectrum and the diffraction pattern from the QPM grating, we employed linear diffraction measurement which is much simpler than tunable harmonic generation experiments [J. S. Pelc, et al., Opt. Lett.36, 864-866 (2011)]. As a result, we could relate the RDE for the QPM device to the relative noise intensity between the diffraction orders.

  7. Excluding joint probabilities from quantum theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allahverdyan, Armen E.; Danageozian, Arshag

    2018-03-01

    Quantum theory does not provide a unique definition for the joint probability of two noncommuting observables, which is the next important question after the Born's probability for a single observable. Instead, various definitions were suggested, e.g., via quasiprobabilities or via hidden-variable theories. After reviewing open issues of the joint probability, we relate it to quantum imprecise probabilities, which are noncontextual and are consistent with all constraints expected from a quantum probability. We study two noncommuting observables in a two-dimensional Hilbert space and show that there is no precise joint probability that applies for any quantum state and is consistent with imprecise probabilities. This contrasts with theorems by Bell and Kochen-Specker that exclude joint probabilities for more than two noncommuting observables, in Hilbert space with dimension larger than two. If measurement contexts are included into the definition, joint probabilities are not excluded anymore, but they are still constrained by imprecise probabilities.

  8. The CU 2-D-MAX-DOAS instrument – Part 2: Raman scattering probability measurements and retrieval of aerosol optical properties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ortega, Ivan; Coburn, Sean; Berg, Larry K.; Lantz, Kathy; Michalsky, Joseph; Ferrare, Richard A.; Hair, Johnathan W.; Hostetler, Chris A.; Volkamer, Rainer

    2016-01-01

    The multiannual global mean of aerosol optical depth at 550 nm (AOD550) over land is ~0.19, and that over oceans is ~0.13. About 45 % of the Earth surface shows AOD550 smaller than 0.1. There is a need for measurement techniques that are optimized to measure aerosol optical properties under low AOD conditions. We present an inherently calibrated retrieval (i.e., no need for radiance calibration) to simultaneously measure AOD and the aerosol phase function parameter, g, based on measurements of azimuth distributions of the Raman scattering probability (RSP), the near-absolute rotational Raman scattering (RRS) intensity. We employ radiative transfer model simulations to show that for solar azimuth RSP measurements at solar elevation and solar zenith angle (SZA) smaller than 80°, RSP is insensitive to the vertical distribution of aerosols and maximally sensitive to changes in AOD and g under near-molecular scattering conditions. The University of Colorado two-dimensional Multi-AXis Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (CU 2-D-MAX-DOAS) instrument was deployed as part of the Two Column Aerosol Project (TCAP) at Cape Cod, MA, during the summer of 2012 to measure direct sun spectra and RSP from scattered light spectra at solar relative azimuth angles (SRAAs) between 5 and 170°. During two case study days with (1) high aerosol load (17 July, 0.3 < AOD430 < 0.6) and (2) near-molecular scattering conditions (22 July, AOD430 < 0.13) we compare RSP-based retrievals of AOD430 and g with data from a co-located CIMEL sun photometer, Multi-Filter Rotating Shadowband Radiometer (MFRSR), and an airborne High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL-2). The average difference (relative to DOAS) for AOD430 is +0.012 ± 0.023 (CIMEL), -0.012 ± 0.024 (MFRSR), -0.011 ± 0.014 (HSRL-2), and +0.023 ± 0.013 (CIMELAOD - MFRSRAOD) and yields the following

  9. Hitting probabilities for nonlinear systems of stochastic waves

    CERN Document Server

    Dalang, Robert C

    2015-01-01

    The authors consider a d-dimensional random field u = \\{u(t,x)\\} that solves a non-linear system of stochastic wave equations in spatial dimensions k \\in \\{1,2,3\\}, driven by a spatially homogeneous Gaussian noise that is white in time. They mainly consider the case where the spatial covariance is given by a Riesz kernel with exponent \\beta. Using Malliavin calculus, they establish upper and lower bounds on the probabilities that the random field visits a deterministic subset of \\mathbb{R}^d, in terms, respectively, of Hausdorff measure and Newtonian capacity of this set. The dimension that ap

  10. Probability of satellite collision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mccarter, J. W.

    1972-01-01

    A method is presented for computing the probability of a collision between a particular artificial earth satellite and any one of the total population of earth satellites. The collision hazard incurred by the proposed modular Space Station is assessed using the technique presented. The results of a parametric study to determine what type of satellite orbits produce the greatest contribution to the total collision probability are presented. Collision probability for the Space Station is given as a function of Space Station altitude and inclination. Collision probability was also parameterized over miss distance and mission duration.

  11. Handbook of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Florescu, Ionut

    2013-01-01

    THE COMPLETE COLLECTION NECESSARY FOR A CONCRETE UNDERSTANDING OF PROBABILITY Written in a clear, accessible, and comprehensive manner, the Handbook of Probability presents the fundamentals of probability with an emphasis on the balance of theory, application, and methodology. Utilizing basic examples throughout, the handbook expertly transitions between concepts and practice to allow readers an inclusive introduction to the field of probability. The book provides a useful format with self-contained chapters, allowing the reader easy and quick reference. Each chapter includes an introductio

  12. Risk estimation using probability machines

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background Logistic regression has been the de facto, and often the only, model used in the description and analysis of relationships between a binary outcome and observed features. It is widely used to obtain the conditional probabilities of the outcome given predictors, as well as predictor effect size estimates using conditional odds ratios. Results We show how statistical learning machines for binary outcomes, provably consistent for the nonparametric regression problem, can be used to provide both consistent conditional probability estimation and conditional effect size estimates. Effect size estimates from learning machines leverage our understanding of counterfactual arguments central to the interpretation of such estimates. We show that, if the data generating model is logistic, we can recover accurate probability predictions and effect size estimates with nearly the same efficiency as a correct logistic model, both for main effects and interactions. We also propose a method using learning machines to scan for possible interaction effects quickly and efficiently. Simulations using random forest probability machines are presented. Conclusions The models we propose make no assumptions about the data structure, and capture the patterns in the data by just specifying the predictors involved and not any particular model structure. So they do not run the same risks of model mis-specification and the resultant estimation biases as a logistic model. This methodology, which we call a “risk machine”, will share properties from the statistical machine that it is derived from. PMID:24581306

  13. The impact of education on the probability of receiving periodontal treatment. Causal effects measured by using the introduction of a school reform in Norway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grytten, Jostein; Skau, Irene

    2017-09-01

    The aim of the present study was to estimate the causal effect of education on the probability of receiving periodontal treatment in the adult Norwegian population. In Norway, a substantial part of the cost of periodontal treatment is subsidized by the National Insurance Scheme. In that case, one might expect that the influence of individual resources, such as education, on receiving treatment would be reduced or eliminated. Causal effects were estimated by using data on a school reform in Norway. During the period 1960-1972, all municipalities in Norway were required to increase the number of compulsory years of schooling from seven to nine years. The education reform was used to create exogenous variation in the education variable. The education data were combined with large sets of data from the Norwegian Health Economics Administration and Statistics Norway. Since municipalities implemented the reform at different times, we have both cross-sectional and time-series variation in the reform instrument. Thus we were able to estimate the effect of education on the probability of receiving periodontal treatment by controlling for municipality fixed effects and trend variables. The probability of receiving periodontal treatment increased by 1.4-1.8 percentage points per additional year of schooling. This is a reasonably strong effect, which indicates that policies to increase the level of education in the population can be an effective tool to improve oral health, including periodontal health. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Analytic degree distributions of horizontal visibility graphs mapped from unrelated random series and multifractal binomial measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Wen-Jie; Han, Rui-Qi; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Wei, Lijian; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2017-08-01

    Complex network is not only a powerful tool for the analysis of complex system, but also a promising way to analyze time series. The algorithm of horizontal visibility graph (HVG) maps time series into graphs, whose degree distributions are numerically and analytically investigated for certain time series. We derive the degree distributions of HVGs through an iterative construction process of HVGs. The degree distributions of the HVG and the directed HVG for random series are derived to be exponential, which confirms the analytical results from other methods. We also obtained the analytical expressions of degree distributions of HVGs and in-degree and out-degree distributions of directed HVGs transformed from multifractal binomial measures, which agree excellently with numerical simulations.

  15. Incorporating PROMIS Symptom Measures into Primary Care Practice-a Randomized Clinical Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroenke, Kurt; Talib, Tasneem L; Stump, Timothy E; Kean, Jacob; Haggstrom, David A; DeChant, Paige; Lake, Kittie R; Stout, Madison; Monahan, Patrick O

    2018-04-05

    Symptoms account for more than 400 million clinic visits annually in the USA. The SPADE symptoms (sleep, pain, anxiety, depression, and low energy/fatigue) are particularly prevalent and undertreated. To assess the effectiveness of providing PROMIS (Patient-Reported Outcome Measure Information System) symptom scores to clinicians on symptom outcomes. Randomized clinical trial conducted from March 2015 through May 2016 in general internal medicine and family practice clinics in an academic healthcare system. Primary care patients who screened positive for at least one SPADE symptom. After completing the PROMIS symptom measures electronically immediately prior to their visit, the 300 study participants were randomized to a feedback group in which their clinician received a visual display of symptom scores or a control group in which scores were not provided to clinicians. The primary outcome was the 3-month change in composite SPADE score. Secondary outcomes were individual symptom scores, symptom documentation in the clinic note, symptom-specific clinician actions, and patient satisfaction. Most patients (84%) had multiple clinically significant (T-score ≥ 55) SPADE symptoms. Both groups demonstrated moderate symptom improvement with a non-significant trend favoring the feedback compared to control group (between-group difference in composite T-score improvement, 1.1; P = 0.17). Symptoms present at baseline resolved at 3-month follow-up only one third of the time, and patients frequently still desired treatment. Except for pain, clinically significant symptoms were documented less than half the time. Neither symptom documentation, symptom-specific clinician actions, nor patient satisfaction differed between treatment arms. Predictors of greater symptom improvement included female sex, black race, fewer medical conditions, and receiving care in a family medicine clinic. Simple feedback of symptom scores to primary care clinicians in the absence of

  16. Variation of mutational burden in healthy human tissues suggests non-random strand segregation and allows measuring somatic mutation rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werner, Benjamin; Sottoriva, Andrea

    2018-06-01

    The immortal strand hypothesis poses that stem cells could produce differentiated progeny while conserving the original template strand, thus avoiding accumulating somatic mutations. However, quantitating the extent of non-random DNA strand segregation in human stem cells remains difficult in vivo. Here we show that the change of the mean and variance of the mutational burden with age in healthy human tissues allows estimating strand segregation probabilities and somatic mutation rates. We analysed deep sequencing data from healthy human colon, small intestine, liver, skin and brain. We found highly effective non-random DNA strand segregation in all adult tissues (mean strand segregation probability: 0.98, standard error bounds (0.97,0.99)). In contrast, non-random strand segregation efficiency is reduced to 0.87 (0.78,0.88) in neural tissue during early development, suggesting stem cell pool expansions due to symmetric self-renewal. Healthy somatic mutation rates differed across tissue types, ranging from 3.5 × 10-9/bp/division in small intestine to 1.6 × 10-7/bp/division in skin.

  17. Variation of mutational burden in healthy human tissues suggests non-random strand segregation and allows measuring somatic mutation rates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Werner

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The immortal strand hypothesis poses that stem cells could produce differentiated progeny while conserving the original template strand, thus avoiding accumulating somatic mutations. However, quantitating the extent of non-random DNA strand segregation in human stem cells remains difficult in vivo. Here we show that the change of the mean and variance of the mutational burden with age in healthy human tissues allows estimating strand segregation probabilities and somatic mutation rates. We analysed deep sequencing data from healthy human colon, small intestine, liver, skin and brain. We found highly effective non-random DNA strand segregation in all adult tissues (mean strand segregation probability: 0.98, standard error bounds (0.97,0.99. In contrast, non-random strand segregation efficiency is reduced to 0.87 (0.78,0.88 in neural tissue during early development, suggesting stem cell pool expansions due to symmetric self-renewal. Healthy somatic mutation rates differed across tissue types, ranging from 3.5 × 10-9/bp/division in small intestine to 1.6 × 10-7/bp/division in skin.

  18. Strong Tracking Filter for Nonlinear Systems with Randomly Delayed Measurements and Correlated Noises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongtao Yang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a novel strong tracking filter (STF, which is suitable for dealing with the filtering problem of nonlinear systems when the following cases occur: that is, the constructed model does not match the actual system, the measurements have the one-step random delay, and the process and measurement noises are correlated at the same epoch. Firstly, a framework of decoupling filter (DF based on equivalent model transformation is derived. Further, according to the framework of DF, a new extended Kalman filtering (EKF algorithm via using first-order linearization approximation is developed. Secondly, the computational process of the suboptimal fading factor is derived on the basis of the extended orthogonality principle (EOP. Thirdly, the ultimate form of the proposed STF is obtained by introducing the suboptimal fading factor into the above EKF algorithm. The proposed STF can automatically tune the suboptimal fading factor on the basis of the residuals between available and predicted measurements and further the gain matrices of the proposed STF tune online to improve the filtering performance. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed STF has been proved through numerical simulation experiments.

  19. Quantum randomness and unpredictability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaeger, Gregg [Quantum Communication and Measurement Laboratory, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering and Division of Natural Science and Mathematics, Boston University, Boston, MA (United States)

    2017-06-15

    Quantum mechanics is a physical theory supplying probabilities corresponding to expectation values for measurement outcomes. Indeed, its formalism can be constructed with measurement as a fundamental process, as was done by Schwinger, provided that individual measurements outcomes occur in a random way. The randomness appearing in quantum mechanics, as with other forms of randomness, has often been considered equivalent to a form of indeterminism. Here, it is argued that quantum randomness should instead be understood as a form of unpredictability because, amongst other things, indeterminism is not a necessary condition for randomness. For concreteness, an explication of the randomness of quantum mechanics as the unpredictability of quantum measurement outcomes is provided. Finally, it is shown how this view can be combined with the recently introduced view that the very appearance of individual quantum measurement outcomes can be grounded in the Plenitude principle of Leibniz, a principle variants of which have been utilized in physics by Dirac and Gell-Mann in relation to the fundamental processes. This move provides further support to Schwinger's ''symbolic'' derivation of quantum mechanics from measurement. (copyright 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim)

  20. Introduction to probability

    CERN Document Server

    Freund, John E

    1993-01-01

    Thorough, lucid coverage of permutations and factorials, probabilities and odds, frequency interpretation, mathematical expectation, decision making, postulates of probability, rule of elimination, binomial distribution, geometric distribution, standard deviation, law of large numbers, and much more. Exercises with some solutions. Summary. Bibliography. Includes 42 black-and-white illustrations. 1973 edition.

  1. Probability, Nondeterminism and Concurrency

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Varacca, Daniele

    Nondeterminism is modelled in domain theory by the notion of a powerdomain, while probability is modelled by that of the probabilistic powerdomain. Some problems arise when we want to combine them in order to model computation in which both nondeterminism and probability are present. In particula...

  2. Janus-faced probability

    CERN Document Server

    Rocchi, Paolo

    2014-01-01

    The problem of probability interpretation was long overlooked before exploding in the 20th century, when the frequentist and subjectivist schools formalized two conflicting conceptions of probability. Beyond the radical followers of the two schools, a circle of pluralist thinkers tends to reconcile the opposing concepts. The author uses two theorems in order to prove that the various interpretations of probability do not come into opposition and can be used in different contexts. The goal here is to clarify the multifold nature of probability by means of a purely mathematical approach and to show how philosophical arguments can only serve to deepen actual intellectual contrasts. The book can be considered as one of the most important contributions in the analysis of probability interpretation in the last 10-15 years.

  3. Void probability scaling in hadron nucleus interactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghosh, Dipak; Deb, Argha; Bhattacharyya, Swarnapratim; Ghosh, Jayita; Bandyopadhyay, Prabhat; Das, Rupa; Mukherjee, Sima

    2002-01-01

    Heygi while investigating with the rapidity gap probability (that measures the chance of finding no particle in the pseudo-rapidity interval Δη) found that a scaling behavior in the rapidity gap probability has a close correspondence with the scaling of a void probability in galaxy correlation study. The main aim in this paper is to study the scaling behavior of the rapidity gap probability

  4. Nash equilibrium with lower probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Groes, Ebbe; Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen; Sloth, Birgitte

    1998-01-01

    We generalize the concept of Nash equilibrium in mixed strategies for strategic form games to allow for ambiguity in the players' expectations. In contrast to other contributions, we model ambiguity by means of so-called lower probability measures or belief functions, which makes it possible...

  5. Probability theory a comprehensive course

    CERN Document Server

    Klenke, Achim

    2014-01-01

    This second edition of the popular textbook contains a comprehensive course in modern probability theory. Overall, probabilistic concepts play an increasingly important role in mathematics, physics, biology, financial engineering and computer science. They help us in understanding magnetism, amorphous media, genetic diversity and the perils of random developments at financial markets, and they guide us in constructing more efficient algorithms.   To address these concepts, the title covers a wide variety of topics, many of which are not usually found in introductory textbooks, such as:   • limit theorems for sums of random variables • martingales • percolation • Markov chains and electrical networks • construction of stochastic processes • Poisson point process and infinite divisibility • large deviation principles and statistical physics • Brownian motion • stochastic integral and stochastic differential equations. The theory is developed rigorously and in a self-contained way, with the c...

  6. Development and evaluation of an Individualized Outcome Measure (IOM) for randomized controlled trials in mental health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesola, Francesca; Williams, Julie; Bird, Victoria; Freidl, Marion; Le Boutillier, Clair; Leamy, Mary; Macpherson, Rob; Slade, Mike

    2015-12-01

    Pre-defined, researcher-selected outcomes are routinely used as the clinical end-point in randomized controlled trials (RCTs); however, individualized approaches may be an effective way to assess outcome in mental health research. The present study describes the development and evaluation of the Individualized Outcome Measure (IOM), which is a patient-specific outcome measure to be used for RCTs of complex interventions. IOM was developed using a narrative review, expert consultation and piloting with mental health service users (n = 20). The final version of IOM comprises two components: Goal Attainment (GA) and Personalized Primary Outcome (PPO). For GA, patients identify one relevant goal at baseline and rate its attainment at follow-up. For PPO, patients choose an outcome domain related to their goal from a pre-defined list at baseline, and complete a standardized questionnaire assessing the chosen outcome domain at baseline and follow-up. A feasibility study indicated that IOM had adequate completion (89%) and acceptability (96%) rates in a clinical sample (n = 84). IOM was then evaluated in a RCT (ISRCTN02507940). GA and PPO components were associated with each other and with the trial primary outcome. The use of the PPO component of IOM as the primary outcome could be considered in future RCTs. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. Methods of Reverberation Mapping. I. Time-lag Determination by Measures of Randomness

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chelouche, Doron; Pozo-Nuñez, Francisco [Department of Physics, Faculty of Natural Sciences, University of Haifa, Haifa 3498838 (Israel); Zucker, Shay, E-mail: doron@sci.haifa.ac.il, E-mail: francisco.pozon@gmail.com, E-mail: shayz@post.tau.ac.il [Department of Geosciences, Raymond and Beverly Sackler Faculty of Exact Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv 6997801 (Israel)

    2017-08-01

    A class of methods for measuring time delays between astronomical time series is introduced in the context of quasar reverberation mapping, which is based on measures of randomness or complexity of the data. Several distinct statistical estimators are considered that do not rely on polynomial interpolations of the light curves nor on their stochastic modeling, and do not require binning in correlation space. Methods based on von Neumann’s mean-square successive-difference estimator are found to be superior to those using other estimators. An optimized von Neumann scheme is formulated, which better handles sparsely sampled data and outperforms current implementations of discrete correlation function methods. This scheme is applied to existing reverberation data of varying quality, and consistency with previously reported time delays is found. In particular, the size–luminosity relation of the broad-line region in quasars is recovered with a scatter comparable to that obtained by other works, yet with fewer assumptions made concerning the process underlying the variability. The proposed method for time-lag determination is particularly relevant for irregularly sampled time series, and in cases where the process underlying the variability cannot be adequately modeled.

  8. An AUC-based permutation variable importance measure for random forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janitza, Silke; Strobl, Carolin; Boulesteix, Anne-Laure

    2013-04-05

    The random forest (RF) method is a commonly used tool for classification with high dimensional data as well as for ranking candidate predictors based on the so-called random forest variable importance measures (VIMs). However the classification performance of RF is known to be suboptimal in case of strongly unbalanced data, i.e. data where response class sizes differ considerably. Suggestions were made to obtain better classification performance based either on sampling procedures or on cost sensitivity analyses. However to our knowledge the performance of the VIMs has not yet been examined in the case of unbalanced response classes. In this paper we explore the performance of the permutation VIM for unbalanced data settings and introduce an alternative permutation VIM based on the area under the curve (AUC) that is expected to be more robust towards class imbalance. We investigated the performance of the standard permutation VIM and of our novel AUC-based permutation VIM for different class imbalance levels using simulated data and real data. The results suggest that the new AUC-based permutation VIM outperforms the standard permutation VIM for unbalanced data settings while both permutation VIMs have equal performance for balanced data settings. The standard permutation VIM loses its ability to discriminate between associated predictors and predictors not associated with the response for increasing class imbalance. It is outperformed by our new AUC-based permutation VIM for unbalanced data settings, while the performance of both VIMs is very similar in the case of balanced classes. The new AUC-based VIM is implemented in the R package party for the unbiased RF variant based on conditional inference trees. The codes implementing our study are available from the companion website: http://www.ibe.med.uni-muenchen.de/organisation/mitarbeiter/070_drittmittel/janitza/index.html.

  9. The concept of probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bitsakis, E.I.; Nicolaides, C.A.

    1989-01-01

    The concept of probability is now, and always has been, central to the debate on the interpretation of quantum mechanics. Furthermore, probability permeates all of science, as well as our every day life. The papers included in this volume, written by leading proponents of the ideas expressed, embrace a broad spectrum of thought and results: mathematical, physical epistemological, and experimental, both specific and general. The contributions are arranged in parts under the following headings: Following Schroedinger's thoughts; Probability and quantum mechanics; Aspects of the arguments on nonlocality; Bell's theorem and EPR correlations; Real or Gedanken experiments and their interpretation; Questions about irreversibility and stochasticity; and Epistemology, interpretation and culture. (author). refs.; figs.; tabs

  10. Randomized Item Response Theory Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fox, Gerardus J.A.

    2005-01-01

    The randomized response (RR) technique is often used to obtain answers on sensitive questions. A new method is developed to measure latent variables using the RR technique because direct questioning leads to biased results. Within the RR technique is the probability of the true response modeled by

  11. Probability densities and the radon variable transformation theorem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramshaw, J.D.

    1985-01-01

    D. T. Gillespie recently derived a random variable transformation theorem relating to the joint probability densities of functionally dependent sets of random variables. The present author points out that the theorem can be derived as an immediate corollary of a simpler and more fundamental relation. In this relation the probability density is represented as a delta function averaged over an unspecified distribution of unspecified internal random variables. The random variable transformation is derived from this relation

  12. Probability and Statistical Inference

    OpenAIRE

    Prosper, Harrison B.

    2006-01-01

    These lectures introduce key concepts in probability and statistical inference at a level suitable for graduate students in particle physics. Our goal is to paint as vivid a picture as possible of the concepts covered.

  13. Probabilities in physics

    CERN Document Server

    Hartmann, Stephan

    2011-01-01

    Many results of modern physics--those of quantum mechanics, for instance--come in a probabilistic guise. But what do probabilistic statements in physics mean? Are probabilities matters of objective fact and part of the furniture of the world, as objectivists think? Or do they only express ignorance or belief, as Bayesians suggest? And how are probabilistic hypotheses justified and supported by empirical evidence? Finally, what does the probabilistic nature of physics imply for our understanding of the world? This volume is the first to provide a philosophical appraisal of probabilities in all of physics. Its main aim is to make sense of probabilistic statements as they occur in the various physical theories and models and to provide a plausible epistemology and metaphysics of probabilities. The essays collected here consider statistical physics, probabilistic modelling, and quantum mechanics, and critically assess the merits and disadvantages of objectivist and subjectivist views of probabilities in these fie...

  14. Probability in physics

    CERN Document Server

    Hemmo, Meir

    2012-01-01

    What is the role and meaning of probability in physical theory, in particular in two of the most successful theories of our age, quantum physics and statistical mechanics? Laws once conceived as universal and deterministic, such as Newton‘s laws of motion, or the second law of thermodynamics, are replaced in these theories by inherently probabilistic laws. This collection of essays by some of the world‘s foremost experts presents an in-depth analysis of the meaning of probability in contemporary physics. Among the questions addressed are: How are probabilities defined? Are they objective or subjective? What is their  explanatory value? What are the differences between quantum and classical probabilities? The result is an informative and thought-provoking book for the scientifically inquisitive. 

  15. Probability in quantum mechanics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. G. Gilson

    1982-01-01

    Full Text Available By using a fluid theory which is an alternative to quantum theory but from which the latter can be deduced exactly, the long-standing problem of how quantum mechanics is related to stochastic processes is studied. It can be seen how the Schrödinger probability density has a relationship to time spent on small sections of an orbit, just as the probability density has in some classical contexts.

  16. Quantum computing and probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferry, David K

    2009-11-25

    Over the past two decades, quantum computing has become a popular and promising approach to trying to solve computationally difficult problems. Missing in many descriptions of quantum computing is just how probability enters into the process. Here, we discuss some simple examples of how uncertainty and probability enter, and how this and the ideas of quantum computing challenge our interpretations of quantum mechanics. It is found that this uncertainty can lead to intrinsic decoherence, and this raises challenges for error correction.

  17. Quantum computing and probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferry, David K

    2009-01-01

    Over the past two decades, quantum computing has become a popular and promising approach to trying to solve computationally difficult problems. Missing in many descriptions of quantum computing is just how probability enters into the process. Here, we discuss some simple examples of how uncertainty and probability enter, and how this and the ideas of quantum computing challenge our interpretations of quantum mechanics. It is found that this uncertainty can lead to intrinsic decoherence, and this raises challenges for error correction. (viewpoint)

  18. Data envelopment analysis of randomized ranks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sant'Anna Annibal P.

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Probabilities and odds, derived from vectors of ranks, are here compared as measures of efficiency of decision-making units (DMUs. These measures are computed with the goal of providing preliminary information before starting a Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA or the application of any other evaluation or composition of preferences methodology. Preferences, quality and productivity evaluations are usually measured with errors or subject to influence of other random disturbances. Reducing evaluations to ranks and treating the ranks as estimates of location parameters of random variables, we are able to compute the probability of each DMU being classified as the best according to the consumption of each input and the production of each output. Employing the probabilities of being the best as efficiency measures, we stretch distances between the most efficient units. We combine these partial probabilities in a global efficiency score determined in terms of proximity to the efficiency frontier.

  19. Influence of low ambient temperature on epitympanic temperature measurement: a prospective randomized clinical study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strapazzon, Giacomo; Procter, Emily; Putzer, Gabriel; Avancini, Giovanni; Dal Cappello, Tomas; Überbacher, Norbert; Hofer, Georg; Rainer, Bernhard; Rammlmair, Georg; Brugger, Hermann

    2015-11-05

    Epitympanic temperature (Tty) measured with thermistor probes correlates with core body temperature (Tcore), but the reliability of measurements at low ambient temperature is unknown. The aim of this study was to determine if commercially-available thermistor-based Tty reflects Tcore in low ambient temperature and if Tty is influenced by insulation of the ear. Thirty-one participants (two females) were exposed to room (23.2 ± 0.4 °C) and low (-18.7 ± 1.0 °C) ambient temperature for 10 min using a randomized cross-over design. Tty was measured using an epitympanic probe (M1024233, GE Healthcare Finland Oy) and oesophageal temperature (Tes) with an oesophageal probe (M1024229, GE Healthcare Finland Oy) inserted into the lower third of the oesophagus. Ten participants wore ear protectors (Arton 2200, Emil Lux GmbH & Co. KG, Wermelskirchen, Switzerland) to insulate the ear from ambient air. During exposure to room temperature, mean Tty increased from 33.4 ± 1.5 to 34.2 ± 0.8 °C without insulation of the ear and from 35.0 ± 0.8 to 35.5 ± 0.7 °C with insulation. During exposure to low ambient temperature, mean Tty decreased from 32.4 ± 1.6 to 28.5 ± 2.0 °C without insulation and from 35.6 ± 0.6 to 35.2 ± 0.9 °C with insulation. The difference between Tty and Tes at low ambient temperature was reduced by 82% (from 7.2 to 1.3 °C) with insulation of the ear. Epitympanic temperature measurements are influenced by ambient temperature and deviate from Tes at room and low ambient temperature. Insulating the ear with ear protectors markedly reduced the difference between Tty and Tes and improved the stability of measurements. The use of models to correct Tty may be possible, but results should be validated in larger studies.

  20. Probability of misclassifying biological elements in surface waters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loga, Małgorzata; Wierzchołowska-Dziedzic, Anna

    2017-11-24

    Measurement uncertainties are inherent to assessment of biological indices of water bodies. The effect of these uncertainties on the probability of misclassification of ecological status is the subject of this paper. Four Monte-Carlo (M-C) models were applied to simulate the occurrence of random errors in the measurements of metrics corresponding to four biological elements of surface waters: macrophytes, phytoplankton, phytobenthos, and benthic macroinvertebrates. Long series of error-prone measurement values of these metrics, generated by M-C models, were used to identify cases in which values of any of the four biological indices lay outside of the "true" water body class, i.e., outside the class assigned from the actual physical measurements. Fraction of such cases in the M-C generated series was used to estimate the probability of misclassification. The method is particularly useful for estimating the probability of misclassification of the ecological status of surface water bodies in the case of short sequences of measurements of biological indices. The results of the Monte-Carlo simulations show a relatively high sensitivity of this probability to measurement errors of the river macrophyte index (MIR) and high robustness to measurement errors of the benthic macroinvertebrate index (MMI). The proposed method of using Monte-Carlo models to estimate the probability of misclassification has significant potential for assessing the uncertainty of water body status reported to the EC by the EU member countries according to WFD. The method can be readily applied also in risk assessment of water management decisions before adopting the status dependent corrective actions.

  1. The perception of probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallistel, C R; Krishan, Monika; Liu, Ye; Miller, Reilly; Latham, Peter E

    2014-01-01

    We present a computational model to explain the results from experiments in which subjects estimate the hidden probability parameter of a stepwise nonstationary Bernoulli process outcome by outcome. The model captures the following results qualitatively and quantitatively, with only 2 free parameters: (a) Subjects do not update their estimate after each outcome; they step from one estimate to another at irregular intervals. (b) The joint distribution of step widths and heights cannot be explained on the assumption that a threshold amount of change must be exceeded in order for them to indicate a change in their perception. (c) The mapping of observed probability to the median perceived probability is the identity function over the full range of probabilities. (d) Precision (how close estimates are to the best possible estimate) is good and constant over the full range. (e) Subjects quickly detect substantial changes in the hidden probability parameter. (f) The perceived probability sometimes changes dramatically from one observation to the next. (g) Subjects sometimes have second thoughts about a previous change perception, after observing further outcomes. (h) The frequency with which they perceive changes moves in the direction of the true frequency over sessions. (Explaining this finding requires 2 additional parametric assumptions.) The model treats the perception of the current probability as a by-product of the construction of a compact encoding of the experienced sequence in terms of its change points. It illustrates the why and the how of intermittent Bayesian belief updating and retrospective revision in simple perception. It suggests a reinterpretation of findings in the recent literature on the neurobiology of decision making. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

  2. The behaviour of random forest permutation-based variable importance measures under predictor correlation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicodemus, Kristin K; Malley, James D; Strobl, Carolin; Ziegler, Andreas

    2010-02-27

    Random forests (RF) have been increasingly used in applications such as genome-wide association and microarray studies where predictor correlation is frequently observed. Recent works on permutation-based variable importance measures (VIMs) used in RF have come to apparently contradictory conclusions. We present an extended simulation study to synthesize results. In the case when both predictor correlation was present and predictors were associated with the outcome (HA), the unconditional RF VIM attributed a higher share of importance to correlated predictors, while under the null hypothesis that no predictors are associated with the outcome (H0) the unconditional RF VIM was unbiased. Conditional VIMs showed a decrease in VIM values for correlated predictors versus the unconditional VIMs under HA and was unbiased under H0. Scaled VIMs were clearly biased under HA and H0. Unconditional unscaled VIMs are a computationally tractable choice for large datasets and are unbiased under the null hypothesis. Whether the observed increased VIMs for correlated predictors may be considered a "bias" - because they do not directly reflect the coefficients in the generating model - or if it is a beneficial attribute of these VIMs is dependent on the application. For example, in genetic association studies, where correlation between markers may help to localize the functionally relevant variant, the increased importance of correlated predictors may be an advantage. On the other hand, we show examples where this increased importance may result in spurious signals.

  3. An Objective Theory of Probability (Routledge Revivals)

    CERN Document Server

    Gillies, Donald

    2012-01-01

    This reissue of D. A. Gillies highly influential work, first published in 1973, is a philosophical theory of probability which seeks to develop von Mises' views on the subject. In agreement with von Mises, the author regards probability theory as a mathematical science like mechanics or electrodynamics, and probability as an objective, measurable concept like force, mass or charge. On the other hand, Dr Gillies rejects von Mises' definition of probability in terms of limiting frequency and claims that probability should be taken as a primitive or undefined term in accordance with modern axioma

  4. High throughput nonparametric probability density estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, Jenny; Jacobs, Donald

    2018-01-01

    In high throughput applications, such as those found in bioinformatics and finance, it is important to determine accurate probability distribution functions despite only minimal information about data characteristics, and without using human subjectivity. Such an automated process for univariate data is implemented to achieve this goal by merging the maximum entropy method with single order statistics and maximum likelihood. The only required properties of the random variables are that they are continuous and that they are, or can be approximated as, independent and identically distributed. A quasi-log-likelihood function based on single order statistics for sampled uniform random data is used to empirically construct a sample size invariant universal scoring function. Then a probability density estimate is determined by iteratively improving trial cumulative distribution functions, where better estimates are quantified by the scoring function that identifies atypical fluctuations. This criterion resists under and over fitting data as an alternative to employing the Bayesian or Akaike information criterion. Multiple estimates for the probability density reflect uncertainties due to statistical fluctuations in random samples. Scaled quantile residual plots are also introduced as an effective diagnostic to visualize the quality of the estimated probability densities. Benchmark tests show that estimates for the probability density function (PDF) converge to the true PDF as sample size increases on particularly difficult test probability densities that include cases with discontinuities, multi-resolution scales, heavy tails, and singularities. These results indicate the method has general applicability for high throughput statistical inference.

  5. Shape measurement system for single point incremental forming (SPIF) manufacts by using trinocular vision and random pattern

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Setti, Francesco; Bini, Ruggero; Lunardelli, Massimo; Bosetti, Paolo; Bruschi, Stefania; De Cecco, Mariolino

    2012-01-01

    Many contemporary works show the interest of the scientific community in measuring the shape of artefacts made by single point incremental forming. In this paper, we will present an algorithm able to detect feature points with a random pattern, check the compatibility of associations exploiting multi-stereo constraints and reject outliers and perform a 3D reconstruction by dense random patterns. The algorithm is suitable for a real-time application, in fact it needs just three images and a synchronous relatively fast processing. The proposed method has been tested on a simple geometry and results have been compared with a coordinate measurement machine acquisition. (paper)

  6. Experimental Probability in Elementary School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew, Lane

    2009-01-01

    Concepts in probability can be more readily understood if students are first exposed to probability via experiment. Performing probability experiments encourages students to develop understandings of probability grounded in real events, as opposed to merely computing answers based on formulae.

  7. Some open problems in noncommutative probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kruszynski, P.

    1981-01-01

    A generalization of probability measures to non-Boolean structures is discussed. The starting point of the theory is the Gleason theorem about the form of measures on closed subspaces of a Hilbert space. The problems are formulated in terms of probability on lattices of projections in arbitrary von Neumann algebras. (Auth.)

  8. Aggregate and Individual Replication Probability within an Explicit Model of the Research Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Jeff; Schwarz, Wolf

    2011-01-01

    We study a model of the research process in which the true effect size, the replication jitter due to changes in experimental procedure, and the statistical error of effect size measurement are all normally distributed random variables. Within this model, we analyze the probability of successfully replicating an initial experimental result by…

  9. Collision Probability Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Friis; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup

    1998-01-01

    It is the purpose of this report to apply a rational model for prediction of ship-ship collision probabilities as function of the ship and the crew characteristics and the navigational environment for MS Dextra sailing on a route between Cadiz and the Canary Islands.The most important ship and crew...... characteristics are: ship speed, ship manoeuvrability, the layout of the navigational bridge, the radar system, the number and the training of navigators, the presence of a look out etc. The main parameters affecting the navigational environment are ship traffic density, probability distributions of wind speeds...... probability, i.e. a study of the navigator's role in resolving critical situations, a causation factor is derived as a second step.The report documents the first step in a probabilistic collision damage analysis. Future work will inlcude calculation of energy released for crushing of structures giving...

  10. Orthogonal Algorithm of Logic Probability and Syndrome-Testable Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    1990-01-01

    A new method,orthogonal algoritm,is presented to compute the logic probabilities(i.e.signal probabilities)accurately,The transfer properties of logic probabilities are studied first,which are useful for the calculation of logic probability of the circuit with random independent inputs.Then the orthogonal algoritm is described to compute the logic probability of Boolean function realized by a combinational circuit.This algorithm can make Boolean function “ORTHOGONAL”so that the logic probabilities can be easily calculated by summing up the logic probabilities of all orthogonal terms of the Booleam function.

  11. Estimating Subjective Probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Steffen; Fountain, John; Harrison, Glenn W.

    2014-01-01

    either construct elicitation mechanisms that control for risk aversion, or construct elicitation mechanisms which undertake 'calibrating adjustments' to elicited reports. We illustrate how the joint estimation of risk attitudes and subjective probabilities can provide the calibration adjustments...... that theory calls for. We illustrate this approach using data from a controlled experiment with real monetary consequences to the subjects. This allows the observer to make inferences about the latent subjective probability, under virtually any well-specified model of choice under subjective risk, while still...

  12. Introduction to imprecise probabilities

    CERN Document Server

    Augustin, Thomas; de Cooman, Gert; Troffaes, Matthias C M

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, the theory has become widely accepted and has been further developed, but a detailed introduction is needed in order to make the material available and accessible to a wide audience. This will be the first book providing such an introduction, covering core theory and recent developments which can be applied to many application areas. All authors of individual chapters are leading researchers on the specific topics, assuring high quality and up-to-date contents. An Introduction to Imprecise Probabilities provides a comprehensive introduction to imprecise probabilities, includin

  13. Classic Problems of Probability

    CERN Document Server

    Gorroochurn, Prakash

    2012-01-01

    "A great book, one that I will certainly add to my personal library."—Paul J. Nahin, Professor Emeritus of Electrical Engineering, University of New Hampshire Classic Problems of Probability presents a lively account of the most intriguing aspects of statistics. The book features a large collection of more than thirty classic probability problems which have been carefully selected for their interesting history, the way they have shaped the field, and their counterintuitive nature. From Cardano's 1564 Games of Chance to Jacob Bernoulli's 1713 Golden Theorem to Parrondo's 1996 Perplexin

  14. Characterization of cervigram image sharpness using multiple self-referenced measurements and random forest classifiers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Mayoore; Horning, Matt; Hu, Liming; Ben-Or, Yau; Champlin, Cary; Wilson, Benjamin; Levitz, David

    2018-02-01

    Cervical cancer is the fourth most common cancer among women worldwide and is especially prevalent in low resource settings due to lack of screening and treatment options. Visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA) is a widespread and cost-effective screening method for cervical pre-cancer lesions, but accuracy depends on the experience level of the health worker. Digital cervicography, capturing images of the cervix, enables review by an off-site expert or potentially a machine learning algorithm. These reviews require images of sufficient quality. However, image quality varies greatly across users. A novel algorithm was developed to evaluate the sharpness of images captured with the MobileODT's digital cervicography device (EVA System), in order to, eventually provide feedback to the health worker. The key challenges are that the algorithm evaluates only a single image of each cervix, it needs to be robust to the variability in cervix images and fast enough to run in real time on a mobile device, and the machine learning model needs to be small enough to fit on a mobile device's memory, train on a small imbalanced dataset and run in real-time. In this paper, the focus scores of a preprocessed image and a Gaussian-blurred version of the image are calculated using established methods and used as features. A feature selection metric is proposed to select the top features which were then used in a random forest classifier to produce the final focus score. The resulting model, based on nine calculated focus scores, achieved significantly better accuracy than any single focus measure when tested on a holdout set of images. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was 0.9459.

  15. Counterexamples in probability

    CERN Document Server

    Stoyanov, Jordan M

    2013-01-01

    While most mathematical examples illustrate the truth of a statement, counterexamples demonstrate a statement's falsity. Enjoyable topics of study, counterexamples are valuable tools for teaching and learning. The definitive book on the subject in regards to probability, this third edition features the author's revisions and corrections plus a substantial new appendix.

  16. Epistemology and Probability

    CERN Document Server

    Plotnitsky, Arkady

    2010-01-01

    Offers an exploration of the relationships between epistemology and probability in the work of Niels Bohr, Werner Heisenberg, and Erwin Schrodinger; in quantum mechanics; and in modern physics. This book considers the implications of these relationships and of quantum theory for our understanding of the nature of thinking and knowledge in general

  17. Transition probabilities for atoms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Y.K.

    1980-01-01

    Current status of advanced theoretical methods for transition probabilities for atoms and ions is discussed. An experiment on the f values of the resonance transitions of the Kr and Xe isoelectronic sequences is suggested as a test for the theoretical methods

  18. Light-reflection random-target method for measurement of the modulation transfer function of a digital video-camera

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Pospíšil, Jaroslav; Jakubík, P.; Machala, L.

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 116, - (2005), s. 573-585 ISSN 0030-4026 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10100522 Keywords : random-target measuring method * light-reflection white - noise target * digital video camera * modulation transfer function * power spectral density Subject RIV: BH - Optics, Masers, Lasers Impact factor: 0.395, year: 2005

  19. Negative probability in the framework of combined probability

    OpenAIRE

    Burgin, Mark

    2013-01-01

    Negative probability has found diverse applications in theoretical physics. Thus, construction of sound and rigorous mathematical foundations for negative probability is important for physics. There are different axiomatizations of conventional probability. So, it is natural that negative probability also has different axiomatic frameworks. In the previous publications (Burgin, 2009; 2010), negative probability was mathematically formalized and rigorously interpreted in the context of extende...

  20. Sampling, Probability Models and Statistical Reasoning -RE ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    random sampling allows data to be modelled with the help of probability ... g based on different trials to get an estimate of the experimental error. ... research interests lie in the .... if e is indeed the true value of the proportion of defectives in the.

  1. Concurrency meets probability: theory and practice (abstract)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Katoen, Joost P.

    Treating random phenomena in concurrency theory has a long tradition. Petri nets [18, 10] and process algebras [14] have been extended with probabilities. The same applies to behavioural semantics such as strong and weak (bi)simulation [1], and testing pre-orders [5]. Beautiful connections between

  2. Methodology for Assessing the Probability of Corrosion in Concrete Structures on the Basis of Half-Cell Potential and Concrete Resistivity Measurements

    OpenAIRE

    Sadowski, Lukasz

    2013-01-01

    In recent years, the corrosion of steel reinforcement has become a major problem in the construction industry. Therefore, much attention has been given to developing methods of predicting the service life of reinforced concrete structures. The progress of corrosion cannot be visually assessed until a crack or a delamination appears. The corrosion process can be tracked using several electrochemical techniques. Most commonly the half-cell potential measurement technique is used for this purpos...

  3. Scale-invariant transition probabilities in free word association trajectories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Elias Costa

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Free-word association has been used as a vehicle to understand the organization of human thoughts. The original studies relied mainly on qualitative assertions, yielding the widely intuitive notion that trajectories of word associations are structured, yet considerably more random than organized linguistic text. Here we set to determine a precise characterization of this space, generating a large number of word association trajectories in a web implemented game. We embedded the trajectories in the graph of word co-occurrences from a linguistic corpus. To constrain possible transport models we measured the memory loss and the cycling probability. These two measures could not be reconciled by a bounded diffusive model since the cycling probability was very high (16 % of order-2 cycles implying a majority of short-range associations whereas the memory loss was very rapid (converging to the asymptotic value in ∼ 7 steps which, in turn, forced a high fraction of long-range associations. We show that memory loss and cycling probabilities of free word association trajectories can be simultaneously accounted by a model in which transitions are determined by a scale invariant probability distribution.

  4. Limit Shapes and Fluctuations of Bounded Random Partitions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beltoft, Dan

    Random partitions of integers, bounded both in the number of summands and the size of each summand are considered, subject to the probability measure which assigns a probability proportional to some fixed positive number to the power of the number being partitioned. This corresponds to considering...

  5. Perceptions of randomized security schedules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scurich, Nicholas; John, Richard S

    2014-04-01

    Security of infrastructure is a major concern. Traditional security schedules are unable to provide omnipresent coverage; consequently, adversaries can exploit predictable vulnerabilities to their advantage. Randomized security schedules, which randomly deploy security measures, overcome these limitations, but public perceptions of such schedules have not been examined. In this experiment, participants were asked to make a choice between attending a venue that employed a traditional (i.e., search everyone) or a random (i.e., a probability of being searched) security schedule. The absolute probability of detecting contraband was manipulated (i.e., 1/10, 1/4, 1/2) but equivalent between the two schedule types. In general, participants were indifferent to either security schedule, regardless of the probability of detection. The randomized schedule was deemed more convenient, but the traditional schedule was considered fairer and safer. There were no differences between traditional and random schedule in terms of perceived effectiveness or deterrence. Policy implications for the implementation and utilization of randomized schedules are discussed. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. Introduction to probability with statistical applications

    CERN Document Server

    Schay, Géza

    2016-01-01

    Now in its second edition, this textbook serves as an introduction to probability and statistics for non-mathematics majors who do not need the exhaustive detail and mathematical depth provided in more comprehensive treatments of the subject. The presentation covers the mathematical laws of random phenomena, including discrete and continuous random variables, expectation and variance, and common probability distributions such as the binomial, Poisson, and normal distributions. More classical examples such as Montmort's problem, the ballot problem, and Bertrand’s paradox are now included, along with applications such as the Maxwell-Boltzmann and Bose-Einstein distributions in physics. Key features in new edition: * 35 new exercises * Expanded section on the algebra of sets * Expanded chapters on probabilities to include more classical examples * New section on regression * Online instructors' manual containing solutions to all exercises

  7. Waste Package Misload Probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knudsen, J.K.

    2001-01-01

    The objective of this calculation is to calculate the probability of occurrence for fuel assembly (FA) misloads (i.e., Fa placed in the wrong location) and FA damage during FA movements. The scope of this calculation is provided by the information obtained from the Framatome ANP 2001a report. The first step in this calculation is to categorize each fuel-handling events that occurred at nuclear power plants. The different categories are based on FAs being damaged or misloaded. The next step is to determine the total number of FAs involved in the event. Using the information, a probability of occurrence will be calculated for FA misload and FA damage events. This calculation is an expansion of preliminary work performed by Framatome ANP 2001a

  8. Probability theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Hsu, Elton P

    1999-01-01

    This volume, with contributions by leading experts in the field, is a collection of lecture notes of the six minicourses given at the IAS/Park City Summer Mathematics Institute. It introduces advanced graduates and researchers in probability theory to several of the currently active research areas in the field. Each course is self-contained with references and contains basic materials and recent results. Topics include interacting particle systems, percolation theory, analysis on path and loop spaces, and mathematical finance. The volume gives a balanced overview of the current status of probability theory. An extensive bibliography for further study and research is included. This unique collection presents several important areas of current research and a valuable survey reflecting the diversity of the field.

  9. Paradoxes in probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    Eckhardt, William

    2013-01-01

    Paradoxes provide a vehicle for exposing misinterpretations and misapplications of accepted principles. This book discusses seven paradoxes surrounding probability theory.  Some remain the focus of controversy; others have allegedly been solved, however the accepted solutions are demonstrably incorrect. Each paradox is shown to rest on one or more fallacies.  Instead of the esoteric, idiosyncratic, and untested methods that have been brought to bear on these problems, the book invokes uncontroversial probability principles, acceptable both to frequentists and subjectivists. The philosophical disputation inspired by these paradoxes is shown to be misguided and unnecessary; for instance, startling claims concerning human destiny and the nature of reality are directly related to fallacious reasoning in a betting paradox, and a problem analyzed in philosophy journals is resolved by means of a computer program.

  10. Retrocausality and conditional probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stuart, C.I.J.M.

    1989-01-01

    Costa de Beauregard has proposed that physical causality be identified with conditional probability. The proposal is shown to be vulnerable on two accounts. The first, though mathematically trivial, seems to be decisive so far as the current formulation of the proposal is concerned. The second lies in a physical inconsistency which seems to have its source in a Copenhagenlike disavowal of realism in quantum mechanics. 6 refs. (Author)

  11. A permutation test to analyse systematic bias and random measurement errors of medical devices via boosting location and scale models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayr, Andreas; Schmid, Matthias; Pfahlberg, Annette; Uter, Wolfgang; Gefeller, Olaf

    2017-06-01

    Measurement errors of medico-technical devices can be separated into systematic bias and random error. We propose a new method to address both simultaneously via generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) in combination with permutation tests. More precisely, we extend a recently proposed boosting algorithm for GAMLSS to provide a test procedure to analyse potential device effects on the measurements. We carried out a large-scale simulation study to provide empirical evidence that our method is able to identify possible sources of systematic bias as well as random error under different conditions. Finally, we apply our approach to compare measurements of skin pigmentation from two different devices in an epidemiological study.

  12. Quantum authentication based on the randomness of measurement bases in BB84

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dang Minh Dung; Bellot, P.; Alleaume, R.

    2005-01-01

    Full text: The establishment of a secret key between two legitimate end points of a communication link, let us name them Alice and Bob, using Quantum key distribution (QKD) is unconditionally secure thanks to Quantum Physics laws.However, the various QKD protocols do not intend to provide the authentication of the end points: Alice cannot be sure that she is communicating with Bob and reciprocally. Therefore, these protocols are subjects to various attacks. The most obvious attack is the man-in-the-middle attack in which an eavesdropper, let us name her Eve, stands in the middle of the communication link. Alice communicates with Eve meanwhile she thinks she communicate with Bob. And Bob communicates with Eve meanwhile he thinks he is communicating with Alice. Eve, acting as a relay, can read all the communications between Alice and Bob and retransmit them. To prevent this kind of attack, the solution is to authenticate the two end points of the communication link. One solution is that Alice and Bob share an authentication key prior to the communication. In order to improve the security, Alice and Bob must share a set of authentication one-time keys. One-time key means that the key has to be used only once because each time a key is used, the eavesdropper Eve can gain a few information on the key. Re-using the same key many times would finally reveal the key to Eve. However, Eve can simulate many times the authentication process with Alice. Each time Eve simulates the authentication process, one of the pre-positioned keys is depleted leading to the exhaustion of the set of pre-positioned keys. This type of attack is named Denial of Service attack. In this work, we propose to use the randomness of the measurement bases in BB84 to build an authentication scheme based on the existence of a prepositioned authentication key. This authentication scheme can be used with BB84 but also with any other Quantum Key Distribution protocols. It is protected against the Denial of

  13. What is Probability Theory?

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    IAS Admin

    statistics at all levels. .... P(Ai) for k < ∞ and A1,A2, ··· ,Ak ∈ F and Ai ∩ Aj = ∅ for i = j. Next, it is reasonable to require that F be closed .... roll of dice, card games such as Bridge. ..... ing data (i.e., generating random variables) according to ...

  14. Absolute activity measurement and gamma-ray emission probability for decay of I-126; Medida absoluta da atividade e determinacao da taxa de emissao gama por decaimento do {sup 126} I

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fonseca, Katia Aparecida

    1997-07-01

    The accurate knowledge of the gamma-ray emission probability per decay of radionuclides is important in several applications. In the case of {sup 126} I, its importance lies mainly in fast neutron dosimetry as well as in the production of {sup 125} I where {sup 126} I appears as an impurity. In the present work the gamma-ray emission probabilities per decay for the 388 and 666-KeV transitions of {sup 126} I have been measured. This radionuclide was obtained by means of the {sup 127} I(n, 2n){sup 126} I reaction in a fast neutron flux at the IPEN 2 MW research reactor. The methodology for the primary standardization of {sup 126} I is described. For this purpose, two different coincidence systems were used due to the complex decay scheme of this radionuclide. The {beta}branch measurement was carried out in a 4 {pi}(PC){beta}-{gamma} coincidence system consisting of a proportional counter, coupled to a pair of 3'x3' Na I (Tl) crystal. The electron capture branch was measured in a X-{gamma} coincidence system using two NaI(Tl) crystals. The gamma-ray measurements were performed in a HPGe system, previously calibrated by means of standard sources supplied by the International Atomic Energy Agency. All the uncertainties evolved were treated rigorously, by means of covariance analysis. (author)

  15. Absolute activity measurement and gamma-ray emission probability for decay of I-126; Medida absoluta da atividade e determinacao da taxa de emissao gama por decaimento do {sup 126} I

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fonseca, Katia Aparecida

    1997-07-01

    The accurate knowledge of the gamma-ray emission probability per decay of radionuclides is important in several applications. In the case of {sup 126} I, its importance lies mainly in fast neutron dosimetry as well as in the production of {sup 125} I where {sup 126} I appears as an impurity. In the present work the gamma-ray emission probabilities per decay for the 388 and 666-KeV transitions of {sup 126} I have been measured. This radionuclide was obtained by means of the {sup 127} I(n, 2n){sup 126} I reaction in a fast neutron flux at the IPEN 2 MW research reactor. The methodology for the primary standardization of {sup 126} I is described. For this purpose, two different coincidence systems were used due to the complex decay scheme of this radionuclide. The {beta}branch measurement was carried out in a 4 {pi}(PC){beta}-{gamma} coincidence system consisting of a proportional counter, coupled to a pair of 3'x3' Na I (Tl) crystal. The electron capture branch was measured in a X-{gamma} coincidence system using two NaI(Tl) crystals. The gamma-ray measurements were performed in a HPGe system, previously calibrated by means of standard sources supplied by the International Atomic Energy Agency. All the uncertainties evolved were treated rigorously, by means of covariance analysis. (author)

  16. Probability numeracy and health insurance purchase

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dillingh, Rik; Kooreman, Peter; Potters, Jan

    2016-01-01

    This paper provides new field evidence on the role of probability numeracy in health insurance purchase. Our regression results, based on rich survey panel data, indicate that the expenditure on two out of three measures of health insurance first rises with probability numeracy and then falls again.

  17. Evaluation of probability and hazard in nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Novikov, V.Ya.; Romanov, N.L.

    1979-01-01

    Various methods of evaluation of accident probability on NPP are proposed because of NPP security statistic evaluation unreliability. The conception of subjective probability for quantitative analysis of security and hazard are described. Intrepretation of probability as real faith of an expert is assumed as a basis of the conception. It is suggested to study the event uncertainty in the framework of subjective probability theory which not only permits but demands to take into account expert opinions when evaluating the probability. These subjective expert evaluations effect to a certain extent the calculation of the usual mathematical event probability. The above technique is advantageous to use for consideration of a separate experiment or random event

  18. Bayesian optimization for computationally extensive probability distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamura, Ryo; Hukushima, Koji

    2018-01-01

    An efficient method for finding a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions is proposed on the basis of a Bayesian optimization technique. A key idea of the proposed method is to use extreme values of acquisition functions by Gaussian processes for the next training phase, which should be located near a local maximum or a global maximum of the probability distribution. Our Bayesian optimization technique is applied to the posterior distribution in the effective physical model estimation, which is a computationally extensive probability distribution. Even when the number of sampling points on the posterior distributions is fixed to be small, the Bayesian optimization provides a better maximizer of the posterior distributions in comparison to those by the random search method, the steepest descent method, or the Monte Carlo method. Furthermore, the Bayesian optimization improves the results efficiently by combining the steepest descent method and thus it is a powerful tool to search for a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions.

  19. Measurement Error Correction Formula for Cluster-Level Group Differences in Cluster Randomized and Observational Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Sun-Joo; Preacher, Kristopher J.

    2016-01-01

    Multilevel modeling (MLM) is frequently used to detect cluster-level group differences in cluster randomized trial and observational studies. Group differences on the outcomes (posttest scores) are detected by controlling for the covariate (pretest scores) as a proxy variable for unobserved factors that predict future attributes. The pretest and…

  20. A Variable Impacts Measurement in Random Forest for Mobile Cloud Computing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jae-Hee Hur

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently, the importance of mobile cloud computing has increased. Mobile devices can collect personal data from various sensors within a shorter period of time and sensor-based data consists of valuable information from users. Advanced computation power and data analysis technology based on cloud computing provide an opportunity to classify massive sensor data into given labels. Random forest algorithm is known as black box model which is hardly able to interpret the hidden process inside. In this paper, we propose a method that analyzes the variable impact in random forest algorithm to clarify which variable affects classification accuracy the most. We apply Shapley Value with random forest to analyze the variable impact. Under the assumption that every variable cooperates as players in the cooperative game situation, Shapley Value fairly distributes the payoff of variables. Our proposed method calculates the relative contributions of the variables within its classification process. In this paper, we analyze the influence of variables and list the priority of variables that affect classification accuracy result. Our proposed method proves its suitability for data interpretation in black box model like a random forest so that the algorithm is applicable in mobile cloud computing environment.

  1. Randomized random walk on a random walk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, P.A.

    1983-06-01

    This paper discusses generalizations of the model introduced by Kehr and Kunter of the random walk of a particle on a one-dimensional chain which in turn has been constructed by a random walk procedure. The superimposed random walk is randomised in time according to the occurrences of a stochastic point process. The probability of finding the particle in a particular position at a certain instant is obtained explicitly in the transform domain. It is found that the asymptotic behaviour for large time of the mean-square displacement of the particle depends critically on the assumed structure of the basic random walk, giving a diffusion-like term for an asymmetric walk or a square root law if the walk is symmetric. Many results are obtained in closed form for the Poisson process case, and these agree with those given previously by Kehr and Kunter. (author)

  2. Probability of causation approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jose, D.E.

    1988-01-01

    Probability of causation (PC) is sometimes viewed as a great improvement by those persons who are not happy with the present rulings of courts in radiation cases. The author does not share that hope and expects that PC will not play a significant role in these issues for at least the next decade. If it is ever adopted in a legislative compensation scheme, it will be used in a way that is unlikely to please most scientists. Consequently, PC is a false hope for radiation scientists, and its best contribution may well lie in some of the spin-off effects, such as an influence on medical practice

  3. Generalized Probability Functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandre Souto Martinez

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available From the integration of nonsymmetrical hyperboles, a one-parameter generalization of the logarithmic function is obtained. Inverting this function, one obtains the generalized exponential function. Motivated by the mathematical curiosity, we show that these generalized functions are suitable to generalize some probability density functions (pdfs. A very reliable rank distribution can be conveniently described by the generalized exponential function. Finally, we turn the attention to the generalization of one- and two-tail stretched exponential functions. We obtain, as particular cases, the generalized error function, the Zipf-Mandelbrot pdf, the generalized Gaussian and Laplace pdf. Their cumulative functions and moments were also obtained analytically.

  4. Probability in High Dimension

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-30

    precisely the content of the following result. The price we pay is that the assumption that A is a packing in (F, k ·k1) is too weak to make this happen...Regularité des trajectoires des fonctions aléatoires gaussiennes. In: École d’Été de Probabilités de Saint- Flour , IV-1974, pp. 1–96. Lecture Notes in...Lectures on probability theory and statistics (Saint- Flour , 1994), Lecture Notes in Math., vol. 1648, pp. 165–294. Springer, Berlin (1996) 50. Ledoux

  5. Measurement of the t anti-t Production Cross Section in p anti-p collisions at s**(1/2) = 1.96-TeV using Lepton + Jets Events with Jet Probability b-tagging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abulencia, A.; Acosta, D.; Adelman, Jahred A.; Affolder, T.; Akimoto, T.; Albrow, M.G.; Ambrose, D.; Amerio, S.; Amidei, D.; Anastassov, A.; Anikeev, K.; /Taiwan, Inst.

    2006-07-01

    The authors present a measurement of the t{bar t} production cross section using events with one charged lepton and jets from p{bar p} collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 1.96 TeV. A b-tagging algorithm based on the probability of displaced tracks coming from the event interaction vertex is applied to identify b quarks from top decay. Using 318 pb{sup -1} of data collected with the CDF II detector, they measure the t{bar t} production cross section in events with at least one restrictive (tight) b-tagged jet and obtain 8.9{sub -1.0}{sup +1.0}(stat.){sub -1.0}{sup +1.1}(syst.) pb. The cross section value assumes a top quark mass of m{sub t} is presented in the paper. This result is consistent with other CDF measurements of the t{bar t} cross section using different samples and analysis techniques, and has similar systematic uncertainties. They have also performed consistency checks by using the b-tagging probability function to vary the signal to background ratio and also using events that have at least two b-tagged jets.

  6. Tailored Random Graph Ensembles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roberts, E S; Annibale, A; Coolen, A C C

    2013-01-01

    Tailored graph ensembles are a developing bridge between biological networks and statistical mechanics. The aim is to use this concept to generate a suite of rigorous tools that can be used to quantify and compare the topology of cellular signalling networks, such as protein-protein interaction networks and gene regulation networks. We calculate exact and explicit formulae for the leading orders in the system size of the Shannon entropies of random graph ensembles constrained with degree distribution and degree-degree correlation. We also construct an ergodic detailed balance Markov chain with non-trivial acceptance probabilities which converges to a strictly uniform measure and is based on edge swaps that conserve all degrees. The acceptance probabilities can be generalized to define Markov chains that target any alternative desired measure on the space of directed or undirected graphs, in order to generate graphs with more sophisticated topological features.

  7. Probable maximum flood control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DeGabriele, C.E.; Wu, C.L.

    1991-11-01

    This study proposes preliminary design concepts to protect the waste-handling facilities and all shaft and ramp entries to the underground from the probable maximum flood (PMF) in the current design configuration for the proposed Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigation (NNWSI) repository protection provisions were furnished by the United States Bureau of Reclamation (USSR) or developed from USSR data. Proposed flood protection provisions include site grading, drainage channels, and diversion dikes. Figures are provided to show these proposed flood protection provisions at each area investigated. These areas are the central surface facilities (including the waste-handling building and waste treatment building), tuff ramp portal, waste ramp portal, men-and-materials shaft, emplacement exhaust shaft, and exploratory shafts facility

  8. Probability Theory Plus Noise: Descriptive Estimation and Inferential Judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costello, Fintan; Watts, Paul

    2018-01-01

    We describe a computational model of two central aspects of people's probabilistic reasoning: descriptive probability estimation and inferential probability judgment. This model assumes that people's reasoning follows standard frequentist probability theory, but it is subject to random noise. This random noise has a regressive effect in descriptive probability estimation, moving probability estimates away from normative probabilities and toward the center of the probability scale. This random noise has an anti-regressive effect in inferential judgement, however. These regressive and anti-regressive effects explain various reliable and systematic biases seen in people's descriptive probability estimation and inferential probability judgment. This model predicts that these contrary effects will tend to cancel out in tasks that involve both descriptive estimation and inferential judgement, leading to unbiased responses in those tasks. We test this model by applying it to one such task, described by Gallistel et al. ). Participants' median responses in this task were unbiased, agreeing with normative probability theory over the full range of responses. Our model captures the pattern of unbiased responses in this task, while simultaneously explaining systematic biases away from normatively correct probabilities seen in other tasks. Copyright © 2018 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  9. Random Measurement Error as a Source of Discrepancies between the Reports of Wives and Husbands Concerning Marital Power and Task Allocation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quarm, Daisy

    1981-01-01

    Findings for couples (N=119) show wife's work, money, and spare time low between-spouse correlations are due in part to random measurement error. Suggests that increasing reliability of measures by creating multi-item indices can also increase correlations. Car purchase, vacation, and child discipline were not accounted for by random measurement…

  10. Impact of controlling the sum of error probability in the sequential probability ratio test

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bijoy Kumarr Pradhan

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available A generalized modified method is proposed to control the sum of error probabilities in sequential probability ratio test to minimize the weighted average of the two average sample numbers under a simple null hypothesis and a simple alternative hypothesis with the restriction that the sum of error probabilities is a pre-assigned constant to find the optimal sample size and finally a comparison is done with the optimal sample size found from fixed sample size procedure. The results are applied to the cases when the random variate follows a normal law as well as Bernoullian law.

  11. Fifty challenging problems in probability with solutions

    CERN Document Server

    Mosteller, Frederick

    1987-01-01

    Can you solve the problem of ""The Unfair Subway""? Marvin gets off work at random times between 3 and 5 p.m. His mother lives uptown, his girlfriend downtown. He takes the first subway that comes in either direction and eats dinner with the one he is delivered to. His mother complains that he never comes to see her, but he says she has a 50-50 chance. He has had dinner with her twice in the last 20 working days. Explain. Marvin's adventures in probability are one of the fifty intriguing puzzles that illustrate both elementary ad advanced aspects of probability, each problem designed to chall

  12. Probability concepts in quality risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Claycamp, H Gregg

    2012-01-01

    Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although risk is generally a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management tools are relatively silent on the meaning and uses of "probability." The probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of frequency-based calculation and a "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as a concept that is crucial for understanding and managing risk is discussed through examples from the most general, scenario-defining and ranking tools that use probability implicitly to more specific probabilistic tools in risk management. A rich history of probability in risk management applied to other fields suggests that high-quality risk management decisions benefit from the implementation of more thoughtful probability concepts in both risk modeling and risk management. Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although "risk" generally describes a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management methodologies and respective tools focus on managing severity but are relatively silent on the in-depth meaning and uses of "probability." Pharmaceutical manufacturers are expanding their use of quality risk management to identify and manage risks to the patient that might occur in phases of the pharmaceutical life cycle from drug development to manufacture, marketing to product discontinuation. A probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of data-based measures of probability and a subjective "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as

  13. Tempered stable laws as random walk limits

    OpenAIRE

    Chakrabarty, Arijit; Meerschaert, Mark M.

    2010-01-01

    Stable laws can be tempered by modifying the L\\'evy measure to cool the probability of large jumps. Tempered stable laws retain their signature power law behavior at infinity, and infinite divisibility. This paper develops random walk models that converge to a tempered stable law under a triangular array scheme. Since tempered stable laws and processes are useful in statistical physics, these random walk models can provide a basic physical model for the underlying physical phenomena.

  14. RCNP E398 {sup 16}O,{sup 12}C(p,p’) experiment: Measurement of the γ-ray emission probability from giant resonances in relation to {sup 16}O,{sup 12}C(ν,ν’) reactions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ou, I.; Yamada, Y.; Mori, T.; Yano, T.; Sakuda, M. [Department of Physics, Okayama University, Okayama 700-8530 (Japan); Tamii, A.; Suzuki, T.; Yosoi, M.; Aoi, N.; Ideguchi, E.; Hashimoto, T.; Miki, K.; Ito, T.; Iwamoto, C.; Yamamoto, T. [Research Center for Nuclear Physics (RCNP), Osaka University, Ibaraki, Osaka 567-0047 (Japan); Akimune, H. [Department of Physics, Konan University, Okamoto 8-9-1, Higashinada, Kobe 658-8501 (Japan)

    2015-05-15

    We propose to measure the γ-ray emission probability from excited states above 5 MeV including giant resonance of {sup 16}O and {sup 12}C as a function of excitation energy in 1-MeV step. Here, we measure both the excitation energy (E{sub x}=5-30MeV) at the forward scattering angles (0°-3°) of the {sup 16}O, {sup 12}C (p, p’) reaction using Grand-Raiden Spectrometer and the energy of γ-rays (E{sub γ}) using an array of NaI(Tl) counters. The purpose of the experiment is to provide the basic and important information not only for the γ-ray production from primary neutral-current neutrino-oxygen (-carbon) interactions but also for that from the secondary hadronic (neutron-oxygen and -carbon) interactions.

  15. A Novel Probability Model for Suppressing Multipath Ghosts in GPR and TWI Imaging: A Numerical Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tan Yun-hua

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available A novel concept for suppressing the problem of multipath ghosts in Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR and Through-Wall Imaging (TWI is presented. Ghosts (i.e., false targets mainly arise from the use of the Born or single-scattering approximations that lead to linearized imaging algorithms; however, these approximations neglect the effect of multiple scattering (or multipath between the electromagnetic wavefield and the object under investigation. In contrast to existing methods of suppressing multipath ghosts, the proposed method models for the first time the reflectivity of the probed objects as a probability function up to a normalized factor and introduces the concept of random subaperture by randomly picking up measurement locations from the entire aperture. Thus, the final radar image is a joint probability distribution that corresponds to radar images derived from multiple random subapertures. Finally, numerical experiments are used to demonstrate the performance of the proposed methodology in GPR and TWI imaging.

  16. Light-reflection random-target method for measurement of the modulation transfer function of a digital video-camera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pospisil, J.; Jakubik, P.; Machala, L.

    2005-11-01

    This article reports the suggestion, realization and verification of the newly developed measuring means of the noiseless and locally shift-invariant modulation transfer function (MTF) of a digital video camera in a usual incoherent visible region of optical intensity, especially of its combined imaging, detection, sampling and digitizing steps which are influenced by the additive and spatially discrete photodetector, aliasing and quantization noises. Such means relates to the still camera automatic working regime and static two-dimensional spatially continuous light-reflection random target of white-noise property. The introduced theoretical reason for such a random-target method is also performed under exploitation of the proposed simulation model of the linear optical intensity response and possibility to express the resultant MTF by a normalized and smoothed rate of the ascertainable output and input power spectral densities. The random-target and resultant image-data were obtained and processed by means of a processing and evaluational PC with computation programs developed on the basis of MATLAB 6.5E The present examples of results and other obtained results of the performed measurements demonstrate the sufficient repeatability and acceptability of the described method for comparative evaluations of the performance of digital video cameras under various conditions.

  17. Precision measurements with LPCTrap and technical developments at GANIL: β-ν angular correlation (a_β_ν) and shake-off probability in the "6He"1"+ β decay, study of the production of new beams at SPIRAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Couratin, Claire

    2013-01-01

    The subject of this work is twofold. The main objective is to measure the β-ν angular correlation (a_β_ν) in the β decay of the "6He"+ at a 0.5% precision level as well as the associated shake-off probability. Evidences of a discrepancy between the experimental value of a_β_ν and the prediction in the Standard Model (SM) would mean the existence of a tensor current in the weak interaction. Consequently, it would question the V-A structure used to describe the weak interaction in the SM. A Paul trap is used to confine "6He"+ ions almost at rest in a very small volume in order to provide a decay source as well defined as possible. The emitted β particle and recoil ion (RI) are detected in coincidence by detectors surrounding the trap. The setup is sensitive to the different charge states of the RIs and also allows the measurement of shake-off probability. This latter and a_β_ν are deduced from comparison with realistic Monte Carlo simulations of the time of flight spectra of the recoiling ions using Geant4 and Simion. The set of measured distributions enables to control the main systematic effects. The second part of this work is dedicated to the development of a new target ion source system (TISS) using a FEBIAD (Forced Electron Beam Induced Arc Discharge) and SPIRAL1 target in the framework of its upgrade. Several experiments have been performed to test the reliability of the TISS and to measure the yields of expected new beams. These tests led to an improved design of the TISS to be tested in December 2013. Within the framework of this upgrade, new beams should be available in 2016. (author) [fr

  18. Data Interpretation: Using Probability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drummond, Gordon B.; Vowler, Sarah L.

    2011-01-01

    Experimental data are analysed statistically to allow researchers to draw conclusions from a limited set of measurements. The hard fact is that researchers can never be certain that measurements from a sample will exactly reflect the properties of the entire group of possible candidates available to be studied (although using a sample is often the…

  19. On the Distribution of Random Geometric Graphs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Badiu, Mihai Alin; Coon, Justin P.

    2018-01-01

    as a measure of the graph’s topological uncertainty (or information content). Moreover, the distribution is also relevant for determining average network performance or designing protocols. However, a major impediment in deducing the graph distribution is that it requires the joint probability distribution......Random geometric graphs (RGGs) are commonly used to model networked systems that depend on the underlying spatial embedding. We concern ourselves with the probability distribution of an RGG, which is crucial for studying its random topology, properties (e.g., connectedness), or Shannon entropy...... of the n(n − 1)/2 distances between n nodes randomly distributed in a bounded domain. As no such result exists in the literature, we make progress by obtaining the joint distribution of the distances between three nodes confined in a disk in R 2. This enables the calculation of the probability distribution...

  20. Probability and rational choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Botting

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available http://dx.doi.org/10.5007/1808-1711.2014v18n1p1 In this paper I will discuss the rationality of reasoning about the future. There are two things that we might like to know about the future: which hypotheses are true and what will happen next. To put it in philosophical language, I aim to show that there are methods by which inferring to a generalization (selecting a hypothesis and inferring to the next instance (singular predictive inference can be shown to be normative and the method itself shown to be rational, where this is due in part to being based on evidence (although not in the same way and in part on a prior rational choice. I will also argue that these two inferences have been confused, being distinct not only conceptually (as nobody disputes but also in their results (the value given to the probability of the hypothesis being not in general that given to the next instance and that methods that are adequate for one are not by themselves adequate for the other. A number of debates over method founder on this confusion and do not show what the debaters think they show.

  1. Analysis of covariance with pre-treatment measurements in randomized trials: comparison of equal and unequal slopes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funatogawa, Ikuko; Funatogawa, Takashi

    2011-09-01

    In randomized trials, an analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) is often used to analyze post-treatment measurements with pre-treatment measurements as a covariate to compare two treatment groups. Random allocation guarantees only equal variances of pre-treatment measurements. We hence consider data with unequal covariances and variances of post-treatment measurements without assuming normality. Recently, we showed that the actual type I error rate of the usual ANCOVA assuming equal slopes and equal residual variances is asymptotically at a nominal level under equal sample sizes, and that of the ANCOVA with unequal variances is asymptotically at a nominal level, even under unequal sample sizes. In this paper, we investigated the asymptotic properties of the ANCOVA with unequal slopes for such data. The estimators of the treatment effect at the observed mean are identical between equal and unequal variance assumptions, and these are asymptotically normal estimators for the treatment effect at the true mean. However, the variances of these estimators based on standard formulas are biased, and the actual type I error rates are not at a nominal level, irrespective of variance assumptions. In equal sample sizes, the efficiency of the usual ANCOVA assuming equal slopes and equal variances is asymptotically the same as those of the ANCOVA with unequal slopes and higher than that of the ANCOVA with equal slopes and unequal variances. Therefore, the use of the usual ANCOVA is appropriate in equal sample sizes. Copyright © 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  2. Measuring gas-residence times in large municipal incinerators, by means of a pseudo-random binary signal tracer technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nasserzadeh, V.; Swithenbank, J.; Jones, B.

    1995-01-01

    The problem of measuring gas-residence time in large incinerators was studied by the pseudo-random binary sequence (PRBS) stimulus tracer response technique at the Sheffield municipal solid-waste incinerator (35 MW plant). The steady-state system was disturbed by the superimposition of small fluctuations in the form of a pseudo-random binary sequence of methane pulses, and the response of the incinerator was determined from the CO 2 concentration in flue gases at the boiler exit, measured with a specially developed optical gas analyser with a high-frequency response. For data acquisition, an on-line PC computer was used together with the LAB Windows software system; the output response was then cross-correlated with the perturbation signal to give the impulse response of the incinerator. There was very good agreement between the gas-residence time for the Sheffield MSW incinerator as calculated by computational fluid dynamics (FLUENT Model) and gas-residence time at the plant as measured by the PRBS tracer technique. The results obtained from this research programme clearly demonstrate that the PRBS stimulus tracer response technique can be successfully and economically used to measure gas-residence times in large incinerator plants. It also suggests that the common commercial practice of characterising the incinerator operation by a single-residence-time parameter may lead to a misrepresentation of the complexities involved in describing the operation of the incineration system. (author)

  3. Calibrated delivery drape versus indirect gravimetric technique for the measurement of blood loss after delivery: a randomized trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ambardekar, Shubha; Shochet, Tara; Bracken, Hillary; Coyaji, Kurus; Winikoff, Beverly

    2014-08-15

    Trials of interventions for PPH prevention and treatment rely on different measurement methods for the quantification of blood loss and identification of PPH. This study's objective was to compare measures of blood loss obtained from two different measurement protocols frequently used in studies. Nine hundred women presenting for vaginal delivery were randomized to a direct method (a calibrated delivery drape) or an indirect method (a shallow bedpan placed below the buttocks and weighing the collected blood and blood-soaked gauze/pads). Blood loss was measured from immediately after delivery for at least one hour or until active bleeding stopped. Significantly greater mean blood loss was recorded by the direct than by the indirect measurement technique (253.9 mL and 195.3 mL, respectively; difference = 58.6 mL (95% CI: 31-86); p 500 mL (8.7% vs. 4.7%, p = 0.02). The study suggests a real and significant difference in blood loss measurement between these methods. Research using blood loss measurement as an endpoint needs to be interpreted taking measurement technique into consideration. This study has been registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01885845.

  4. A Correction of Random Incidence Absorption Coefficients for the Angular Distribution of Acoustic Energy under Measurement Conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeong, Cheol-Ho

    2009-01-01

    Most acoustic measurements are based on an assumption of ideal conditions. One such ideal condition is a diffuse and reverberant field. In practice, a perfectly diffuse sound field cannot be achieved in a reverberation chamber. Uneven incident energy density under measurement conditions can cause...... discrepancies between the measured value and the theoretical random incidence absorption coefficient. Therefore the angular distribution of the incident acoustic energy onto an absorber sample should be taken into account. The angular distribution of the incident energy density was simulated using the beam...... tracing method for various room shapes and source positions. The averaged angular distribution is found to be similar to a Gaussian distribution. As a result, an angle-weighted absorption coefficient was proposed by considering the angular energy distribution to improve the agreement between...

  5. Markov chain beam randomization: a study of the impact of PLANCK beam measurement errors on cosmological parameter estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocha, G.; Pagano, L.; Górski, K. M.; Huffenberger, K. M.; Lawrence, C. R.; Lange, A. E.

    2010-04-01

    We introduce a new method to propagate uncertainties in the beam shapes used to measure the cosmic microwave background to cosmological parameters determined from those measurements. The method, called markov chain beam randomization (MCBR), randomly samples from a set of templates or functions that describe the beam uncertainties. The method is much faster than direct numerical integration over systematic “nuisance” parameters, and is not restricted to simple, idealized cases as is analytic marginalization. It does not assume the data are normally distributed, and does not require Gaussian priors on the specific systematic uncertainties. We show that MCBR properly accounts for and provides the marginalized errors of the parameters. The method can be generalized and used to propagate any systematic uncertainties for which a set of templates is available. We apply the method to the Planck satellite, and consider future experiments. Beam measurement errors should have a small effect on cosmological parameters as long as the beam fitting is performed after removal of 1/f noise.

  6. Bayesian reconstruction of seafloor shape from side-scan sonar measurements using a Markov Random Field

    OpenAIRE

    Woock, P.; Pak, Alexey

    2014-01-01

    To explore the seafloor, a side-scan sonar emits a directed acoustic signal and then records the returning (reflected) signal intensity as a function of time. The inversion of that process is not unique: multiple shapes may lead to identical measured responses. In this work, we suggest a Bayesian approach to reconstructing the 3D shape of the seafloor from multiple sonar measurements, inspired by the state-of-the-art methods of inverse raytracing that originated in computer vision. The space ...

  7. Vaginal Swab Test Compared With the Urethral Q-tip Test for Urethral Mobility Measurement: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Isuzu; Szychowski, Jeff M; Illston, Jana D; Parden, Alison M; Richter, Holly E

    2016-02-01

    To assess whether use of a vaginal cotton-tipped swab is equivalent to the standard Q-tip test regarding urethral mobility. Secondarily, to examine whether both tests agree in hypermobility diagnosis, discomfort level, and patients' preference. In this randomized crossover trial, women with stress urinary incontinence without prolapse beyond the hymen were randomized to undergo either a vaginal or urethral mobility test first followed by the alternate approach. The primary outcome was the difference in rotation angle, from resting to maximum strain, between tests. The equivalence margin was ±10°. The secondary outcome was agreement in hypermobility diagnosis using two definitions: 1) maximum straining angle of 30° or greater from the horizontal plane; and 2) rotation angle 30° or greater. Discomfort was assessed using a 0-10 visual analog scale. Using 90% power assuming a standard deviation of 20°, 36 and 139 patients were needed for 10° and 5° equivalence margins, respectively. From January 2014 to March 2015, 140 women were randomized. The mean difference between the two tests was 5.1° (95% confidence interval 3.2-6.9°), meeting the predefined equivalence criteria. In the hypermobility diagnosis, the urethral and vaginal tests had no disagreement using definition 1 (P=.23), whereas the two tests disagreed using definition 2 (P=.03). The urethral approach had a higher discomfort level (Pstandard Q-tip test in measuring urethral mobility with less discomfort and is preferred by patients.

  8. Probabilities on Streams and Reflexive Games

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Schumann

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Probability measures on streams (e.g. on hypernumbers and p-adic numbers have been defined. It was shown that these probabilities can be used for simulations of reflexive games. In particular, it can be proved that Aumann's agreement theorem does not hold for these probabilities. Instead of this theorem, there is a statement that is called the reflexion disagreement theorem. Based on this theorem, probabilistic and knowledge conditions can be defined for reflexive games at various reflexion levels up to the infinite level. (original abstract

  9. Concept of probability in statistical physics

    CERN Document Server

    Guttmann, Y M

    1999-01-01

    Foundational issues in statistical mechanics and the more general question of how probability is to be understood in the context of physical theories are both areas that have been neglected by philosophers of physics. This book fills an important gap in the literature by providing a most systematic study of how to interpret probabilistic assertions in the context of statistical mechanics. The book explores both subjectivist and objectivist accounts of probability, and takes full measure of work in the foundations of probability theory, in statistical mechanics, and in mathematical theory. It will be of particular interest to philosophers of science, physicists and mathematicians interested in foundational issues, and also to historians of science.

  10. Development of measurement system for radiation effect on static random access memory based field programmable gate array

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yao Zhibin; He Baoping; Zhang Fengqi; Guo Hongxia; Luo Yinhong; Wang Yuanming; Zhang Keying

    2009-01-01

    Based on the detailed investigation in field programmable gate array(FPGA) radiation effects theory, a measurement system for radiation effects on static random access memory(SRAM)-based FPGA was developed. The testing principle of internal memory, function and power current was introduced. The hardware and software implement means of system were presented. Some important parameters for radiation effects on SRAM-based FPGA, such as configuration RAM upset section, block RAM upset section, function fault section and single event latchup section can be gained with this system. The transmission distance of the system can be over 50 m and the maximum number of tested gates can reach one million. (authors)

  11. A Tale of Two Probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falk, Ruma; Kendig, Keith

    2013-01-01

    Two contestants debate the notorious probability problem of the sex of the second child. The conclusions boil down to explication of the underlying scenarios and assumptions. Basic principles of probability theory are highlighted.

  12. Probability for Weather and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, L. A.

    2013-12-01

    Over the last 60 years, the availability of large-scale electronic computers has stimulated rapid and significant advances both in meteorology and in our understanding of the Earth System as a whole. The speed of these advances was due, in large part, to the sudden ability to explore nonlinear systems of equations. The computer allows the meteorologist to carry a physical argument to its conclusion; the time scales of weather phenomena then allow the refinement of physical theory, numerical approximation or both in light of new observations. Prior to this extension, as Charney noted, the practicing meteorologist could ignore the results of theory with good conscience. Today, neither the practicing meteorologist nor the practicing climatologist can do so, but to what extent, and in what contexts, should they place the insights of theory above quantitative simulation? And in what circumstances can one confidently estimate the probability of events in the world from model-based simulations? Despite solid advances of theory and insight made possible by the computer, the fidelity of our models of climate differs in kind from the fidelity of models of weather. While all prediction is extrapolation in time, weather resembles interpolation in state space, while climate change is fundamentally an extrapolation. The trichotomy of simulation, observation and theory which has proven essential in meteorology will remain incomplete in climate science. Operationally, the roles of probability, indeed the kinds of probability one has access too, are different in operational weather forecasting and climate services. Significant barriers to forming probability forecasts (which can be used rationally as probabilities) are identified. Monte Carlo ensembles can explore sensitivity, diversity, and (sometimes) the likely impact of measurement uncertainty and structural model error. The aims of different ensemble strategies, and fundamental differences in ensemble design to support of

  13. Detection probability of Campylobacter

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Evers, E.G.; Post, J.; Putirulan, F.F.; Wal, van der F.J.

    2010-01-01

    A rapid presence/absence test for Campylobacter in chicken faeces is being evaluated to support the scheduling of highly contaminated broiler flocks as a measure to reduce public health risks [Nauta, M. J., & Havelaar, A. H. (2008). Risk-based standards for Campylobacter in the broiler meat

  14. Economic choices reveal probability distortion in macaque monkeys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stauffer, William R; Lak, Armin; Bossaerts, Peter; Schultz, Wolfram

    2015-02-18

    Economic choices are largely determined by two principal elements, reward value (utility) and probability. Although nonlinear utility functions have been acknowledged for centuries, nonlinear probability weighting (probability distortion) was only recently recognized as a ubiquitous aspect of real-world choice behavior. Even when outcome probabilities are known and acknowledged, human decision makers often overweight low probability outcomes and underweight high probability outcomes. Whereas recent studies measured utility functions and their corresponding neural correlates in monkeys, it is not known whether monkeys distort probability in a manner similar to humans. Therefore, we investigated economic choices in macaque monkeys for evidence of probability distortion. We trained two monkeys to predict reward from probabilistic gambles with constant outcome values (0.5 ml or nothing). The probability of winning was conveyed using explicit visual cues (sector stimuli). Choices between the gambles revealed that the monkeys used the explicit probability information to make meaningful decisions. Using these cues, we measured probability distortion from choices between the gambles and safe rewards. Parametric modeling of the choices revealed classic probability weighting functions with inverted-S shape. Therefore, the animals overweighted low probability rewards and underweighted high probability rewards. Empirical investigation of the behavior verified that the choices were best explained by a combination of nonlinear value and nonlinear probability distortion. Together, these results suggest that probability distortion may reflect evolutionarily preserved neuronal processing. Copyright © 2015 Stauffer et al.

  15. Visualizing and Understanding Probability and Statistics: Graphical Simulations Using Excel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Sheldon P.; Gordon, Florence S.

    2009-01-01

    The authors describe a collection of dynamic interactive simulations for teaching and learning most of the important ideas and techniques of introductory statistics and probability. The modules cover such topics as randomness, simulations of probability experiments such as coin flipping, dice rolling and general binomial experiments, a simulation…

  16. Behavioral measures to reduce non-adherence in renal transplant recipients: a prospective randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Márcia Fátima Faraldo Martinez; Bravin, Ariane Moyses; Garcia, Paula Dalsoglio; Contti, Mariana Moraes; Nga, Hong Si; Takase, Henrique Mochida; de Andrade, Luis Gustavo Modelli

    2015-11-01

    Solid-organ transplant recipients present a high rate of non-adherence to drug treatment. Few interventional studies have included approaches aimed at increasing adherence. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of an educational and behavioral strategy on treatment adherence of kidney transplant recipients. In a randomized prospective study, incident renal transplant patients (n = 111) were divided into two groups: control group (received usual transplant patient education) and treatment group (usual transplant patient education plus ten additional weekly 30-min education/counseling sessions about immunosuppressive drugs and behavioral changes). Treatment adherence was assessed using ITAS adherence questionnaire after 3 months. Renal function at 3, 6, and 12 months, and the incidence of transplant rejection were evaluated. The non-adherence rates were 46.4 and 14.5 % in the control and treatment groups (p = 0.001), respectively. The relative risk for non-adherence was 2.59 times (CI 1.38-4.88) higher in the control group. Multivariate analysis demonstrated a 5.84 times (CI 1.8-18.8, p = 0.003) higher risk of non-adherence in the control group. There were no differences in renal function and rejection rates between groups. A behavioral and educational strategy addressing the patient's perceptions and knowledge about the anti-rejection drugs significantly improved the short-term adherence to immunosuppressive therapy.

  17. Surprisingly rational: probability theory plus noise explains biases in judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costello, Fintan; Watts, Paul

    2014-07-01

    The systematic biases seen in people's probability judgments are typically taken as evidence that people do not use the rules of probability theory when reasoning about probability but instead use heuristics, which sometimes yield reasonable judgments and sometimes yield systematic biases. This view has had a major impact in economics, law, medicine, and other fields; indeed, the idea that people cannot reason with probabilities has become a truism. We present a simple alternative to this view, where people reason about probability according to probability theory but are subject to random variation or noise in the reasoning process. In this account the effect of noise is canceled for some probabilistic expressions. Analyzing data from 2 experiments, we find that, for these expressions, people's probability judgments are strikingly close to those required by probability theory. For other expressions, this account produces systematic deviations in probability estimates. These deviations explain 4 reliable biases in human probabilistic reasoning (conservatism, subadditivity, conjunction, and disjunction fallacies). These results suggest that people's probability judgments embody the rules of probability theory and that biases in those judgments are due to the effects of random noise. (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  18. Internal Medicine residents use heuristics to estimate disease probability

    OpenAIRE

    Phang, Sen Han; Ravani, Pietro; Schaefer, Jeffrey; Wright, Bruce; McLaughlin, Kevin

    2015-01-01

    Background: Training in Bayesian reasoning may have limited impact on accuracy of probability estimates. In this study, our goal was to explore whether residents previously exposed to Bayesian reasoning use heuristics rather than Bayesian reasoning to estimate disease probabilities. We predicted that if residents use heuristics then post-test probability estimates would be increased by non-discriminating clinical features or a high anchor for a target condition. Method: We randomized 55 In...

  19. A first course in probability

    CERN Document Server

    Ross, Sheldon

    2014-01-01

    A First Course in Probability, Ninth Edition, features clear and intuitive explanations of the mathematics of probability theory, outstanding problem sets, and a variety of diverse examples and applications. This book is ideal for an upper-level undergraduate or graduate level introduction to probability for math, science, engineering and business students. It assumes a background in elementary calculus.

  20. A story about estimation of a random field of boulders from incomplete seismic measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager

    2005-01-01

    deposits along the tunnel line. By use of this important distribution information and of the observed homogeneity of the seismic point source field together with the physical properties of diffraction it became possible to make the wanted prediction. During the excavation the found boulders were counted......This paper reports on the statistical interpretation of seismic diffraction measurements of boulder locations. The measurements are made in a corridor along the planned tunnel line for the later realized bored tunnel through the till deposits under the East Channel of the Great Belt in Denmark...... graphical registrations on seismograms do not make a proper interpretation possible without detailed knowledge about the joint distribution of the primary dimensions of the boulders. Therefore separate measurements were made of the dimensions of boulders deposited visibly on the cliff beaches of the Great...

  1. Random pulse generator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo Ya'nan; Jin Dapeng; Zhao Dixin; Liu Zhen'an; Qiao Qiao; Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing

    2007-01-01

    Due to the randomness of radioactive decay and nuclear reaction, the signals from detectors are random in time. But normal pulse generator generates periodical pulses. To measure the performances of nuclear electronic devices under random inputs, a random generator is necessary. Types of random pulse generator are reviewed, 2 digital random pulse generators are introduced. (authors)

  2. Bias Correction and Random Error Characterization for the Assimilation of HRDI Line-of-Sight Wind Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tangborn, Andrew; Menard, Richard; Ortland, David; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    A new approach to the analysis of systematic and random observation errors is presented in which the error statistics are obtained using forecast data rather than observations from a different instrument type. The analysis is carried out at an intermediate retrieval level, instead of the more typical state variable space. This method is carried out on measurements made by the High Resolution Doppler Imager (HRDI) on board the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS). HRDI, a limb sounder, is the only satellite instrument measuring winds in the stratosphere, and the only instrument of any kind making global wind measurements in the upper atmosphere. HRDI measures doppler shifts in the two different O2 absorption bands (alpha and B) and the retrieved products are tangent point Line-of-Sight wind component (level 2 retrieval) and UV winds (level 3 retrieval). This analysis is carried out on a level 1.9 retrieval, in which the contributions from different points along the line-of-sight have not been removed. Biases are calculated from O-F (observed minus forecast) LOS wind components and are separated into a measurement parameter space consisting of 16 different values. The bias dependence on these parameters (plus an altitude dependence) is used to create a bias correction scheme carried out on the level 1.9 retrieval. The random error component is analyzed by separating the gamma and B band observations and locating observation pairs where both bands are very nearly looking at the same location at the same time. It is shown that the two observation streams are uncorrelated and that this allows the forecast error variance to be estimated. The bias correction is found to cut the effective observation error variance in half.

  3. Fatigue Reliability under Random Loads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Talreja, R.

    1979-01-01

    We consider the problem of estimating the probability of survival (non-failure) and the probability of safe operation (strength greater than a limiting value) of structures subjected to random loads. These probabilities are formulated in terms of the probability distributions of the loads...... propagation stage. The consequences of this behaviour on the fatigue reliability are discussed....

  4. Constructor theory of probability

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Unitary quantum theory, having no Born Rule, is non-probabilistic. Hence the notorious problem of reconciling it with the unpredictability and appearance of stochasticity in quantum measurements. Generalizing and improving upon the so-called ‘decision-theoretic approach’, I shall recast that problem in the recently proposed constructor theory of information—where quantum theory is represented as one of a class of superinformation theories, which are local, non-probabilistic theories conforming to certain constructor-theoretic conditions. I prove that the unpredictability of measurement outcomes (to which constructor theory gives an exact meaning) necessarily arises in superinformation theories. Then I explain how the appearance of stochasticity in (finitely many) repeated measurements can arise under superinformation theories. And I establish sufficient conditions for a superinformation theory to inform decisions (made under it) as if it were probabilistic, via a Deutsch–Wallace-type argument—thus defining a class of decision-supporting superinformation theories. This broadens the domain of applicability of that argument to cover constructor-theory compliant theories. In addition, in this version some of the argument's assumptions, previously construed as merely decision-theoretic, follow from physical properties expressed by constructor-theoretic principles. PMID:27616914

  5. School and conference on probability theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lawler, G.F.

    2004-01-01

    This volume includes expanded lecture notes from the School and Conference in Probability Theory held at ICTP in May, 2001. Probability theory is a very large area, too large for a single school and conference. The organizers, G. Lawler, C. Newman, and S. Varadhan chose to focus on a number of active research areas that have their roots in statistical physics. The pervasive theme in these lectures is trying to find the large time or large space behaviour of models defined on discrete lattices. Usually the definition of the model is relatively simple: either assigning a particular weight to each possible configuration (equilibrium statistical mechanics) or specifying the rules under which the system evolves (nonequilibrium statistical mechanics). Interacting particle systems is the area of probability that studies the evolution of particles (either finite or infinite in number) under random motions. The evolution of particles depends on the positions of the other particles; often one assumes that it depends only on the particles that are close to the particular particle. Thomas Liggett's lectures give an introduction to this very large area. Claudio Landim's follows up by discussing hydrodynamic limits of particle systems. The goal of this area is to describe the long time, large system size dynamics in terms of partial differential equations. The area of random media is concerned with the properties of materials or environments that are not homogeneous. Percolation theory studies one of the simplest stated models for impurities - taking a lattice and removing some of the vertices or bonds. Luiz Renato G. Fontes and Vladas Sidoravicius give a detailed introduction to this area. Random walk in random environment combines two sources of randomness - a particle performing stochastic motion in which the transition probabilities depend on position and have been chosen from some probability distribution. Alain-Sol Sznitman gives a survey of recent developments in this

  6. Test of the X(5) symmetry in {sup 156}Dy and {sup 178}Os by measurement of electromagnetic transition probabilities; Test der X(5)-Symmetrie in {sup 156}Dy und {sup 178}Os durch Messung elektromagnetischer Uebergangswahrscheinlichkeiten

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moeller, O.

    2005-07-01

    This work reports on results from two Recoil-Distance-Doppler-Shift lifetime measurements of excited states in {sup 155}Dy and {sup 178}Os. The experiments were carried out at the GASP spektrometer of the Laboratori Nazional i di Legnaro in combination with the Cologne plunger apparatus. The main purpose of the performed experiments was to test the predictions of the X(5) critical point symmetry in these two nuclei. In {sup 156}Dy and {sup 178}Os 29 lifetimes of excited states were derived using the Differential-Decay-Curve method. In weaker reaction channels the nuclei {sup 155}Dy, {sup 157}Dy and {sup 177}Os were populated. In these nuclei 32 additional lifetimes were measured, most of them for the first time. In order to calculate absolute transition probabilities from the measured lifetimes of the first excited band in {sup 156}Dy, essential branching ratios were derived from the measured data with a very small systematic error (<5%). The most important results can be summarized as mentioned below: Lifetimes measured in the first excited band, confirm that this nucleus can be located close to the critical point X(5). With model calculations, special criteria of the X(5) model were found that can be used to identify other X(5)-like nuclei. Using these criterias a new region of X(5)-like nuclei could be suggested within the osmium isotopes in the A=180 mass region. The measured lifetimes in {sup 178}Os confirm the consistency of a X(5) description in these nuclei. A comparision with the well established X(5)-like nuclei in the N=90 isotones gives an agreement with the X(5) description of at least the same quality. (orig.)

  7. Quantum probability and quantum decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yukalov, V I; Sornette, D

    2016-01-13

    A rigorous general definition of quantum probability is given, which is valid not only for elementary events but also for composite events, for operationally testable measurements as well as for inconclusive measurements, and also for non-commuting observables in addition to commutative observables. Our proposed definition of quantum probability makes it possible to describe quantum measurements and quantum decision-making on the same common mathematical footing. Conditions are formulated for the case when quantum decision theory reduces to its classical counterpart and for the situation where the use of quantum decision theory is necessary. © 2015 The Author(s).

  8. Probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions in performance assessment for radioactive waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helton, J.C.

    1996-03-01

    A formal description of the structure of several recent performance assessments (PAs) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is given in terms of the following three components: a probability space (S st , S st , p st ) for stochastic uncertainty, a probability space (S su , S su , p su ) for subjective uncertainty and a function (i.e., a random variable) defined on the product space associated with (S st , S st , p st ) and (S su , S su , p su ). The explicit recognition of the existence of these three components allows a careful description of the use of probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions within the WIPP PA. This usage is illustrated in the context of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's standard for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, Subpart B). The paradigm described in this presentation can also be used to impose a logically consistent structure on PAs for other complex systems

  9. Probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions in performance assessment for radioactive waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helton, J.C.

    1996-01-01

    A formal description of the structure of several recent performance assessments (PAs) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is given in terms of the following three components: a probability space (S st , L st , P st ) for stochastic uncertainty, a probability space (S su , L su , P su ) for subjective uncertainty and a function (i.e., a random variable) defined on the product space associated with (S st , L st , P st ) and (S su , L su , P su ). The explicit recognition of the existence of these three components allows a careful description of the use of probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions within the WIPP PA. This usage is illustrated in the context of the US Environmental Protection Agency's standard for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, Subpart B). The paradigm described in this presentation can also be used to impose a logically consistent structure on PAs for other complex systems

  10. Updated teaching techniques improve CPR performance measures: a cluster randomized, controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ettl, Florian; Testori, Christoph; Weiser, Christoph; Fleischhackl, Sabine; Mayer-Stickler, Monika; Herkner, Harald; Schreiber, Wolfgang; Fleischhackl, Roman

    2011-06-01

    The first-aid training necessary for obtaining a drivers license in Austria has a regulated and predefined curriculum but has been targeted for the implementation of a new course structure with less theoretical input, repetitive training in cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) and structured presentations using innovative media. The standard and a new course design were compared with a prospective, participant- and observer-blinded, cluster-randomized controlled study. Six months after the initial training, we evaluated the confidence of the 66 participants in their skills, CPR effectiveness parameters and correctness of their actions. The median self-confidence was significantly higher in the interventional group [IG, visual analogue scale (VAS:"0" not-confident at all,"100" highly confident):57] than in the control group (CG, VAS:41). The mean chest compression rate in the IG (98/min) was closer to the recommended 100 bpm than in the CG (110/min). The time to the first chest compression (IG:25s, CG:36s) and time to first defibrillator shock (IG:86s, CG:92s) were significantly shorter in the IG. Furthermore, the IG participants were safer in their handling of the defibrillator and started with countermeasures against developing shock more often. The management of an unconscious person and of heavy bleeding did not show a difference between the two groups even after shortening the lecture time. Motivation and self-confidence as well as skill retention after six months were shown to be dependent on the teaching methods and the time for practical training. Courses may be reorganized and content rescheduled, even within predefined curricula, to improve course outcomes. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Generalized index for spatial data sets as a measure of complete spatial randomness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hackett-Jones, Emily J.; Davies, Kale J.; Binder, Benjamin J.; Landman, Kerry A.

    2012-06-01

    Spatial data sets, generated from a wide range of physical systems can be analyzed by counting the number of objects in a set of bins. Previous work has been limited to equal-sized bins, which are inappropriate for some domains (e.g., circular). We consider a nonequal size bin configuration whereby overlapping or nonoverlapping bins cover the domain. A generalized index, defined in terms of a variance between bin counts, is developed to indicate whether or not a spatial data set, generated from exclusion or nonexclusion processes, is at the complete spatial randomness (CSR) state. Limiting values of the index are determined. Using examples, we investigate trends in the generalized index as a function of density and compare the results with those using equal size bins. The smallest bin size must be much larger than the mean size of the objects. We can determine whether a spatial data set is at the CSR state or not by comparing the values of a generalized index for different bin configurations—the values will be approximately the same if the data is at the CSR state, while the values will differ if the data set is not at the CSR state. In general, the generalized index is lower than the limiting value of the index, since objects do not have access to the entire region due to blocking by other objects. These methods are applied to two applications: (i) spatial data sets generated from a cellular automata model of cell aggregation in the enteric nervous system and (ii) a known plant data distribution.

  12. A brief introduction to probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Paola, Gioacchino; Bertani, Alessandro; De Monte, Lavinia; Tuzzolino, Fabio

    2018-02-01

    The theory of probability has been debated for centuries: back in 1600, French mathematics used the rules of probability to place and win bets. Subsequently, the knowledge of probability has significantly evolved and is now an essential tool for statistics. In this paper, the basic theoretical principles of probability will be reviewed, with the aim of facilitating the comprehension of statistical inference. After a brief general introduction on probability, we will review the concept of the "probability distribution" that is a function providing the probabilities of occurrence of different possible outcomes of a categorical or continuous variable. Specific attention will be focused on normal distribution that is the most relevant distribution applied to statistical analysis.

  13. A note on iterated function systems with discontinuous probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaroszewska, Joanna

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► Certain iterated function system with discontinuous probabilities is discussed. ► Existence of an invariant measure via the Schauder–Tychonov theorem is established. ► Asymptotic stability of the system under examination is proved. -- Abstract: We consider an example of an iterated function system with discontinuous probabilities. We prove that it posses an invariant probability measure. We also prove that it is asymptotically stable provided probabilities are positive

  14. On the universality of knot probability ratios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Janse van Rensburg, E J [Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 (Canada); Rechnitzer, A, E-mail: rensburg@yorku.ca, E-mail: andrewr@math.ubc.ca [Department of Mathematics, University of British Columbia, 1984 Mathematics Road, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2 (Canada)

    2011-04-22

    Let p{sub n} denote the number of self-avoiding polygons of length n on a regular three-dimensional lattice, and let p{sub n}(K) be the number which have knot type K. The probability that a random polygon of length n has knot type K is p{sub n}(K)/p{sub n} and is known to decay exponentially with length (Sumners and Whittington 1988 J. Phys. A: Math. Gen. 21 1689-94, Pippenger 1989 Discrete Appl. Math. 25 273-8). Little is known rigorously about the asymptotics of p{sub n}(K), but there is substantial numerical evidence. It is believed that the entropic exponent, {alpha}, is universal, while the exponential growth rate is independent of the knot type but varies with the lattice. The amplitude, C{sub K}, depends on both the lattice and the knot type. The above asymptotic form implies that the relative probability of a random polygon of length n having prime knot type K over prime knot type L. In the thermodynamic limit this probability ratio becomes an amplitude ratio; it should be universal and depend only on the knot types K and L. In this communication we examine the universality of these probability ratios for polygons in the simple cubic, face-centred cubic and body-centred cubic lattices. Our results support the hypothesis that these are universal quantities. For example, we estimate that a long random polygon is approximately 28 times more likely to be a trefoil than be a figure-eight, independent of the underlying lattice, giving an estimate of the intrinsic entropy associated with knot types in closed curves. (fast track communication)

  15. Vitamin D measurement in the intensive care unit: methodology, clinical relevance and interpretation of a random value.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnan, Anand; Venkatesh, Bala

    2013-08-01

    Vitamin D deficiency, as measured by a random level of 25-hydroxyvitamin D is very prevalent in critically ill patients admitted to the ICU and is associated with adverse outcomes. Both 25(OH)vitamin D and 1α,25(OH)2D3 are difficult to analyse because of their lipophilic nature, affinity for VDBP and small concentrations. Also, the various tests used to estimate vitamin D levels show significant inter- and intra-assay variability, which significantly affect the veracity of the results obtained and confound their interpretation. The two main types of assays include those that directly estimate vitamin D levels (HPLC, LC-MS/MS) and competitive binding assays (RIA, EIA). The former methods require skilled operators, with prolonged assay times and increased cost, whereas the latter are cheaper and easy to perform, but with decreased accuracy. The direct assays are not affected by lipophilic substances in plasma and heterophile antibodies, but may overestimate vitamin D levels by measuring the 3-epimers. These problems can be eliminated by adequate standardization of the test using SRMs provided by NIST, as well as participating in proficiency schemes like DEQAS. It is therefore important to consider the test employed as well as laboratory quality control, while interpreting vitamin D results. A single random measurement may not be reflective of the vitamin D status in ICU patients because of changes with fluid administration, and intra-day variation in 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels. 1α,25(OH)2D3 may behave differently to 25-hydroxyvitamin D, both in plasma and at tissue level, in inflammatory states. Measurement of tissue 1α,25(OH)2D3 levels may provide the true estimate of vitamin D activity.

  16. Measuring order in disordered systems and disorder in ordered systems: Random matrix theory for isotropic and nematic liquid crystals and its perspective on pseudo-nematic domains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yan; Stratt, Richard M.

    2018-05-01

    Surprisingly long-ranged intermolecular correlations begin to appear in isotropic (orientationally disordered) phases of liquid crystal forming molecules when the temperature or density starts to close in on the boundary with the nematic (ordered) phase. Indeed, the presence of slowly relaxing, strongly orientationally correlated, sets of molecules under putatively disordered conditions ("pseudo-nematic domains") has been apparent for some time from light-scattering and optical-Kerr experiments. Still, a fully microscopic characterization of these domains has been lacking. We illustrate in this paper how pseudo-nematic domains can be studied in even relatively small computer simulations by looking for order-parameter tensor fluctuations much larger than one would expect from random matrix theory. To develop this idea, we show that random matrix theory offers an exact description of how the probability distribution for liquid-crystal order parameter tensors converges to its macroscopic-system limit. We then illustrate how domain properties can be inferred from finite-size-induced deviations from these random matrix predictions. A straightforward generalization of time-independent random matrix theory also allows us to prove that the analogous random matrix predictions for the time dependence of the order-parameter tensor are similarly exact in the macroscopic limit, and that relaxation behavior of the domains can be seen in the breakdown of the finite-size scaling required by that random-matrix theory.

  17. Heuristic Relative Entropy Principles with Complex Measures: Large-Degree Asymptotics of a Family of Multi-variate Normal Random Polynomials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiessling, Michael Karl-Heinz

    2017-10-01

    Let z\\in C, let σ ^2>0 be a variance, and for N\\in N define the integrals E_N^{}(z;σ ) := {1/σ } \\int _R\\ (x^2+z^2) e^{-{1/2σ^2 x^2}}{√{2π }}/dx \\quad if N=1, {1/σ } \\int _{R^N} \\prod \\prod \\limits _{1≤ k1. These are expected values of the polynomials P_N^{}(z)=\\prod _{1≤ n≤ N}(X_n^2+z^2) whose 2 N zeros ± i X_k^{}_{k=1,\\ldots ,N} are generated by N identically distributed multi-variate mean-zero normal random variables {X_k}N_{k=1} with co-variance {Cov}_N^{}(X_k,X_l)=(1+σ ^2-1/N)δ _{k,l}+σ ^2-1/N(1-δ _{k,l}). The E_N^{}(z;σ ) are polynomials in z^2, explicitly computable for arbitrary N, yet a list of the first three E_N^{}(z;σ ) shows that the expressions become unwieldy already for moderate N—unless σ = 1, in which case E_N^{}(z;1) = (1+z^2)^N for all z\\in C and N\\in N. (Incidentally, commonly available computer algebra evaluates the integrals E_N^{}(z;σ ) only for N up to a dozen, due to memory constraints). Asymptotic evaluations are needed for the large- N regime. For general complex z these have traditionally been limited to analytic expansion techniques; several rigorous results are proved for complex z near 0. Yet if z\\in R one can also compute this "infinite-degree" limit with the help of the familiar relative entropy principle for probability measures; a rigorous proof of this fact is supplied. Computer algebra-generated evidence is presented in support of a conjecture that a generalization of the relative entropy principle to signed or complex measures governs the N→ ∞ asymptotics of the regime iz\\in R. Potential generalizations, in particular to point vortex ensembles and the prescribed Gauss curvature problem, and to random matrix ensembles, are emphasized.

  18. Probability and Statistics The Science of Uncertainty (Revised Edition)

    CERN Document Server

    Tabak, John

    2011-01-01

    Probability and Statistics, Revised Edition deals with the history of probability, describing the modern concept of randomness and examining "pre-probabilistic" ideas of what most people today would characterize as randomness. This revised book documents some historically important early uses of probability to illustrate some very important probabilistic questions. It goes on to explore statistics and the generations of mathematicians and non-mathematicians who began to address problems in statistical analysis, including the statistical structure of data sets as well as the theory of

  19. Entanglement probabilities of polymers: a white noise functional approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernido, Christopher C; Carpio-Bernido, M Victoria

    2003-01-01

    The entanglement probabilities for a highly flexible polymer to wind n times around a straight polymer are evaluated using white noise analysis. To introduce the white noise functional approach, the one-dimensional random walk problem is taken as an example. The polymer entanglement scenario, viewed as a random walk on a plane, is then treated and the entanglement probabilities are obtained for a magnetic flux confined along the straight polymer, and a case where an entangled polymer is subjected to the potential V = f-dot(s)θ. In the absence of the magnetic flux and the potential V, the entanglement probabilities reduce to a result obtained by Wiegel

  20. Propensity, Probability, and Quantum Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballentine, Leslie E.

    2016-08-01

    Quantum mechanics and probability theory share one peculiarity. Both have well established mathematical formalisms, yet both are subject to controversy about the meaning and interpretation of their basic concepts. Since probability plays a fundamental role in QM, the conceptual problems of one theory can affect the other. We first classify the interpretations of probability into three major classes: (a) inferential probability, (b) ensemble probability, and (c) propensity. Class (a) is the basis of inductive logic; (b) deals with the frequencies of events in repeatable experiments; (c) describes a form of causality that is weaker than determinism. An important, but neglected, paper by P. Humphreys demonstrated that propensity must differ mathematically, as well as conceptually, from probability, but he did not develop a theory of propensity. Such a theory is developed in this paper. Propensity theory shares many, but not all, of the axioms of probability theory. As a consequence, propensity supports the Law of Large Numbers from probability theory, but does not support Bayes theorem. Although there are particular problems within QM to which any of the classes of probability may be applied, it is argued that the intrinsic quantum probabilities (calculated from a state vector or density matrix) are most naturally interpreted as quantum propensities. This does not alter the familiar statistical interpretation of QM. But the interpretation of quantum states as representing knowledge is untenable. Examples show that a density matrix fails to represent knowledge.

  1. Predicting binary choices from probability phrase meanings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallsten, Thomas S; Jang, Yoonhee

    2008-08-01

    The issues of how individuals decide which of two events is more likely and of how they understand probability phrases both involve judging relative likelihoods. In this study, we investigated whether derived scales representing probability phrase meanings could be used within a choice model to predict independently observed binary choices. If they can, this simultaneously provides support for our model and suggests that the phrase meanings are measured meaningfully. The model assumes that, when deciding which of two events is more likely, judges take a single sample from memory regarding each event and respond accordingly. The model predicts choice probabilities by using the scaled meanings of individually selected probability phrases as proxies for confidence distributions associated with sampling from memory. Predictions are sustained for 34 of 41 participants but, nevertheless, are biased slightly low. Sequential sampling models improve the fit. The results have both theoretical and applied implications.

  2. Air charged and microtip catheters cannot be used interchangeably for urethral pressure measurement: a prospective, single-blind, randomized trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zehnder, Pascal; Roth, Beat; Burkhard, Fiona C; Kessler, Thomas M

    2008-09-01

    We determined and compared urethral pressure measurements using air charged and microtip catheters in a prospective, single-blind, randomized trial. A consecutive series of 64 women referred for urodynamic investigation underwent sequential urethral pressure measurements using an air charged and a microtip catheter in randomized order. Patients were blinded to the type and sequence of catheter used. Agreement between the 2 catheter systems was assessed using the Bland and Altman 95% limits of agreement method. Intraclass correlation coefficients of air charged and microtip catheters for maximum urethral closure pressure at rest were 0.97 and 0.93, and for functional profile length they were 0.9 and 0.78, respectively. Pearson's correlation coefficients and Lin's concordance coefficients of air charged and microtip catheters were r = 0.82 and rho = 0.79 for maximum urethral closure pressure at rest, and r = 0.73 and rho = 0.7 for functional profile length, respectively. When applying the Bland and Altman method, air charged catheters gave higher readings than microtip catheters for maximum urethral closure pressure at rest (mean difference 7.5 cm H(2)O) and functional profile length (mean difference 1.8 mm). There were wide 95% limits of agreement for differences in maximum urethral closure pressure at rest (-24.1 to 39 cm H(2)O) and functional profile length (-7.7 to 11.3 mm). For urethral pressure measurement the air charged catheter is at least as reliable as the microtip catheter and it generally gives higher readings. However, air charged and microtip catheters cannot be used interchangeably for clinical purposes because of insufficient agreement. Hence, clinicians should be aware that air charged and microtip catheters may yield completely different results, and these differences should be acknowledged during clinical decision making.

  3. An audit strategy for time-to-event outcomes measured with error: application to five randomized controlled trials in oncology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodd, Lori E; Korn, Edward L; Freidlin, Boris; Gu, Wenjuan; Abrams, Jeffrey S; Bushnell, William D; Canetta, Renzo; Doroshow, James H; Gray, Robert J; Sridhara, Rajeshwari

    2013-10-01

    Measurement error in time-to-event end points complicates interpretation of treatment effects in clinical trials. Non-differential measurement error is unlikely to produce large bias [1]. When error depends on treatment arm, bias is of greater concern. Blinded-independent central review (BICR) of all images from a trial is commonly undertaken to mitigate differential measurement-error bias that may be present in hazard ratios (HRs) based on local evaluations. Similar BICR and local evaluation HRs may provide reassurance about the treatment effect, but BICR adds considerable time and expense to trials. We describe a BICR audit strategy [2] and apply it to five randomized controlled trials to evaluate its use and to provide practical guidelines. The strategy requires BICR on a subset of study subjects, rather than a complete-case BICR, and makes use of an auxiliary-variable estimator. When the effect size is relatively large, the method provides a substantial reduction in the size of the BICRs. In a trial with 722 participants and a HR of 0.48, an average audit of 28% of the data was needed and always confirmed the treatment effect as assessed by local evaluations. More moderate effect sizes and/or smaller trial sizes required larger proportions of audited images, ranging from 57% to 100% for HRs ranging from 0.55 to 0.77 and sample sizes between 209 and 737. The method is developed for a simple random sample of study subjects. In studies with low event rates, more efficient estimation may result from sampling individuals with events at a higher rate. The proposed strategy can greatly decrease the costs and time associated with BICR, by reducing the number of images undergoing review. The savings will depend on the underlying treatment effect and trial size, with larger treatment effects and larger trials requiring smaller proportions of audited data.

  4. The Efficacy of Acupuncture on Anthropometric Measures and the Biochemical Markers for Metabolic Syndrome: A Randomized Controlled Pilot Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingjuan Han

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Many previous studies have shown the potential therapeutic effect of acupuncture for metabolic syndrome (MetS. However, most of these studies were limited by short durations of observation and a lack of sham acupuncture as control. We designed a randomized controlled trial, used sham acupuncture as the control, and evaluated the efficacy over 12 weeks of treatment and 12 weeks of follow-up. Methods/Design. The study was designed as a multicentre, parallel-group, randomized, double-blinded trial. 40 patients were randomly assigned to two groups: treatment group (treated with acupuncture and control group (treated with sham acupuncture. Outcomes were measured at 4, 8, and 12 weeks and 3 months after treatment. Results. 33 participants (17 in acupuncture group and 16 in control group completed the treatment and the follow-up. Decreases from baseline in mean waist circumference (WC and weight at the end of treatment were 4.85 cm (95% CI [2.405,5.595] and 4.00 kg (95% CI [1.6208,4.4498] in acupuncture group and 1.62 cm and 1.64 kg in control group (P<0.01. The changes in mean glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c, triglycerides (TG, total cholesterol (TC, and blood pressure in acupuncture group were greater than the changes in control group (P<0.05, P<0.01. Conclusion. Acupuncture decreases WC, HC, HbA1c, TG, and TC values and blood pressure in MetS.

  5. Logical independence and quantum randomness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paterek, T; Kofler, J; Aspelmeyer, M; Zeilinger, A; Brukner, C; Prevedel, R; Klimek, P

    2010-01-01

    We propose a link between logical independence and quantum physics. We demonstrate that quantum systems in the eigenstates of Pauli group operators are capable of encoding mathematical axioms and show that Pauli group quantum measurements are capable of revealing whether or not a given proposition is logically dependent on the axiomatic system. Whenever a mathematical proposition is logically independent of the axioms encoded in the measured state, the measurement associated with the proposition gives random outcomes. This allows for an experimental test of logical independence. Conversely, it also allows for an explanation of the probabilities of random outcomes observed in Pauli group measurements from logical independence without invoking quantum theory. The axiomatic systems we study can be completed and are therefore not subject to Goedel's incompleteness theorem.

  6. Logical independence and quantum randomness

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paterek, T; Kofler, J; Aspelmeyer, M; Zeilinger, A; Brukner, C [Institute for Quantum Optics and Quantum Information, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Boltzmanngasse 3, A-1090 Vienna (Austria); Prevedel, R; Klimek, P [Faculty of Physics, University of Vienna, Boltzmanngasse 5, A-1090 Vienna (Austria)], E-mail: tomasz.paterek@univie.ac.at

    2010-01-15

    We propose a link between logical independence and quantum physics. We demonstrate that quantum systems in the eigenstates of Pauli group operators are capable of encoding mathematical axioms and show that Pauli group quantum measurements are capable of revealing whether or not a given proposition is logically dependent on the axiomatic system. Whenever a mathematical proposition is logically independent of the axioms encoded in the measured state, the measurement associated with the proposition gives random outcomes. This allows for an experimental test of logical independence. Conversely, it also allows for an explanation of the probabilities of random outcomes observed in Pauli group measurements from logical independence without invoking quantum theory. The axiomatic systems we study can be completed and are therefore not subject to Goedel's incompleteness theorem.

  7. Poisson Processes in Free Probability

    OpenAIRE

    An, Guimei; Gao, Mingchu

    2015-01-01

    We prove a multidimensional Poisson limit theorem in free probability, and define joint free Poisson distributions in a non-commutative probability space. We define (compound) free Poisson process explicitly, similar to the definitions of (compound) Poisson processes in classical probability. We proved that the sum of finitely many freely independent compound free Poisson processes is a compound free Poisson processes. We give a step by step procedure for constructing a (compound) free Poisso...

  8. PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    Science.gov (United States)

    We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

  9. Absolute transition probabilities for 559 strong lines of neutral cerium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Curry, J J, E-mail: jjcurry@nist.go [National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg, MD 20899-8422 (United States)

    2009-07-07

    Absolute radiative transition probabilities are reported for 559 strong lines of neutral cerium covering the wavelength range 340-880 nm. These transition probabilities are obtained by scaling published relative line intensities (Meggers et al 1975 Tables of Spectral Line Intensities (National Bureau of Standards Monograph 145)) with a smaller set of published absolute transition probabilities (Bisson et al 1991 J. Opt. Soc. Am. B 8 1545). All 559 new values are for lines for which transition probabilities have not previously been available. The estimated relative random uncertainty of the new data is +-35% for nearly all lines.

  10. What Are Probability Surveys used by the National Aquatic Resource Surveys?

    Science.gov (United States)

    The National Aquatic Resource Surveys (NARS) use probability-survey designs to assess the condition of the nation’s waters. In probability surveys (also known as sample-surveys or statistical surveys), sampling sites are selected randomly.

  11. Modelling the Probability of Landslides Impacting Road Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, F. E.; Malamud, B. D.

    2012-04-01

    During a landslide triggering event, the threat of landslides blocking roads poses a risk to logistics, rescue efforts and communities dependant on those road networks. Here we present preliminary results of a stochastic model we have developed to evaluate the probability of landslides intersecting a simple road network during a landslide triggering event and apply simple network indices to measure the state of the road network in the affected region. A 4000 x 4000 cell array with a 5 m x 5 m resolution was used, with a pre-defined simple road network laid onto it, and landslides 'randomly' dropped onto it. Landslide areas (AL) were randomly selected from a three-parameter inverse gamma probability density function, consisting of a power-law decay of about -2.4 for medium and large values of AL and an exponential rollover for small values of AL; the rollover (maximum probability) occurs at about AL = 400 m2 This statistical distribution was chosen based on three substantially complete triggered landslide inventories recorded in existing literature. The number of landslide areas (NL) selected for each triggered event iteration was chosen to have an average density of 1 landslide km-2, i.e. NL = 400 landslide areas chosen randomly for each iteration, and was based on several existing triggered landslide event inventories. A simple road network was chosen, in a 'T' shape configuration, with one road 1 x 4000 cells (5 m x 20 km) in a 'T' formation with another road 1 x 2000 cells (5 m x 10 km). The landslide areas were then randomly 'dropped' over the road array and indices such as the location, size (ABL) and number of road blockages (NBL) recorded. This process was performed 500 times (iterations) in a Monte-Carlo type simulation. Initial results show that for a landslide triggering event with 400 landslides over a 400 km2 region, the number of road blocks per iteration, NBL,ranges from 0 to 7. The average blockage area for the 500 iterations (A¯ BL) is about 3000 m

  12. Objective and Subjective Measures of Simultaneous vs Sequential Bilateral Cochlear Implants in Adults A Randomized Clinical Trial : A Randomized Clinical Trial

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kraaijenga, Véronique J C; Ramakers, Geerte G J; Smulders, Yvette E; van Zon, Alice; Stegeman, Inge; Smit, Adriana L; Stokroos, Robert J; Hendrice, Nadia; Free, Rolien H; Maat, Bert; Frijns, Johan H M; Briaire, Jeroen J; Mylanus, E A M; Huinck, Wendy J; Van Zanten, Gijsbert A; Grolman, Wilko

    IMPORTANCE To date, no randomized clinical trial on the comparison between simultaneous and sequential bilateral cochlear implants (BiCIs) has been performed. OBJECTIVE To investigate the hearing capabilities and the self-reported benefits of simultaneous BiCIs compared with those of sequential

  13. Uncertainty relation and probability. Numerical illustration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujikawa, Kazuo; Umetsu, Koichiro

    2011-01-01

    The uncertainty relation and the probability interpretation of quantum mechanics are intrinsically connected, as is evidenced by the evaluation of standard deviations. It is thus natural to ask if one can associate a very small uncertainty product of suitably sampled events with a very small probability. We have shown elsewhere that some examples of the evasion of the uncertainty relation noted in the past are in fact understood in this way. We here numerically illustrate that a very small uncertainty product is realized if one performs a suitable sampling of measured data that occur with a very small probability. We introduce a notion of cyclic measurements. It is also shown that our analysis is consistent with the Landau-Pollak-type uncertainty relation. It is suggested that the present analysis may help reconcile the contradicting views about the 'standard quantum limit' in the detection of gravitational waves. (author)

  14. Probability and statistics for particle physics

    CERN Document Server

    Mana, Carlos

    2017-01-01

    This book comprehensively presents the basic concepts of probability and Bayesian inference with sufficient generality to make them applicable to current problems in scientific research. The first chapter provides the fundamentals of probability theory that are essential for the analysis of random phenomena. The second chapter includes a full and pragmatic review of the Bayesian methods that constitute a natural and coherent framework with enough freedom to analyze all the information available from experimental data in a conceptually simple manner. The third chapter presents the basic Monte Carlo techniques used in scientific research, allowing a large variety of problems to be handled difficult to tackle by other procedures. The author also introduces a basic algorithm, which enables readers to simulate samples from simple distribution, and describes useful cases for researchers in particle physics.The final chapter is devoted to the basic ideas of Information Theory, which are important in the Bayesian me...

  15. Estimating the Probability of Vegetation to Be Groundwater Dependent Based on the Evaluation of Tree Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabel C. Pérez Hoyos

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater Dependent Ecosystems (GDEs are increasingly threatened by humans’ rising demand for water resources. Consequently, it is imperative to identify the location of GDEs to protect them. This paper develops a methodology to identify the probability of an ecosystem to be groundwater dependent. Probabilities are obtained by modeling the relationship between the known locations of GDEs and factors influencing groundwater dependence, namely water table depth and climatic aridity index. Probabilities are derived for the state of Nevada, USA, using modeled water table depth and aridity index values obtained from the Global Aridity database. The model selected results from the performance comparison of classification trees (CT and random forests (RF. Based on a threshold-independent accuracy measure, RF has a better ability to generate probability estimates. Considering a threshold that minimizes the misclassification rate for each model, RF also proves to be more accurate. Regarding training accuracy, performance measures such as accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity are higher for RF. For the test set, higher values of accuracy and kappa for CT highlight the fact that these measures are greatly affected by low prevalence. As shown for RF, the choice of the cutoff probability value has important consequences on model accuracy and the overall proportion of locations where GDEs are found.

  16. Predicting Flow Breakdown Probability and Duration in Stochastic Network Models: Impact on Travel Time Reliability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dong, Jing [ORNL; Mahmassani, Hani S. [Northwestern University, Evanston

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to produce random flow breakdown endogenously in a mesoscopic operational model, by capturing breakdown probability and duration. Based on previous research findings that probability of flow breakdown can be represented as a function of flow rate and the duration can be characterized by a hazard model. By generating random flow breakdown at various levels and capturing the traffic characteristics at the onset of the breakdown, the stochastic network simulation model provides a tool for evaluating travel time variability. The proposed model can be used for (1) providing reliability related traveler information; (2) designing ITS (intelligent transportation systems) strategies to improve reliability; and (3) evaluating reliability-related performance measures of the system.

  17. Probability inequalities for decomposition integrals

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Agahi, H.; Mesiar, Radko

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 315, č. 1 (2017), s. 240-248 ISSN 0377-0427 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Decomposition integral * Superdecomposition integral * Probability inequalities Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics OBOR OECD: Statistics and probability Impact factor: 1.357, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/E/mesiar-0470959.pdf

  18. Objective and Subjective Measures of Simultaneous vs Sequential Bilateral Cochlear Implants in Adults: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kraaijenga, Véronique J C; Ramakers, Geerte G J; Smulders, Yvette E; van Zon, Alice; Stegeman, Inge; Smit, Adriana L; Stokroos, Robert J; Hendrice, Nadia; Free, Rolien H; Maat, Bert; Frijns, Johan H M; Briaire, Jeroen J; Mylanus, E A M; Huinck, Wendy J; Van Zanten, Gijsbert A; Grolman, Wilko

    2017-09-01

    To date, no randomized clinical trial on the comparison between simultaneous and sequential bilateral cochlear implants (BiCIs) has been performed. To investigate the hearing capabilities and the self-reported benefits of simultaneous BiCIs compared with those of sequential BiCIs. A multicenter randomized clinical trial was conducted between January 12, 2010, and September 2, 2012, at 5 tertiary referral centers among 40 participants eligible for BiCIs. Main inclusion criteria were postlingual severe to profound hearing loss, age 18 to 70 years, and a maximum duration of 10 years without hearing aid use in both ears. Data analysis was conducted from May 24 to June 12, 2016. The simultaneous BiCI group received 2 cochlear implants during 1 surgical procedure. The sequential BiCI group received 2 cochlear implants with an interval of 2 years between implants. First, the results 1 year after receiving simultaneous BiCIs were compared with the results 1 year after receiving sequential BiCIs. Second, the results of 3 years of follow-up for both groups were compared separately. The primary outcome measure was speech intelligibility in noise from straight ahead. Secondary outcome measures were speech intelligibility in noise from spatially separated sources, speech intelligibility in silence, localization capabilities, and self-reported benefits assessed with various hearing and quality of life questionnaires. Nineteen participants were randomized to receive simultaneous BiCIs (11 women and 8 men; median age, 52 years [interquartile range, 36-63 years]), and another 19 participants were randomized to undergo sequential BiCIs (8 women and 11 men; median age, 54 years [interquartile range, 43-64 years]). Three patients did not receive a second cochlear implant and were unavailable for follow-up. Comparable results were found 1 year after simultaneous or sequential BiCIs for speech intelligibility in noise from straight ahead (difference, 0.9 dB [95% CI, -3.1 to 4.4 dB]) and

  19. STRIP: stream learning of influence probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kutzkov, Konstantin

    2013-01-01

    cascades, and developing applications such as viral marketing. Motivated by modern microblogging platforms, such as twitter, in this paper we study the problem of learning influence probabilities in a data-stream scenario, in which the network topology is relatively stable and the challenge of a learning...... algorithm is to keep up with a continuous stream of tweets using a small amount of time and memory. Our contribution is a number of randomized approximation algorithms, categorized according to the available space (superlinear, linear, and sublinear in the number of nodes n) and according to dierent models...

  20. APPROXIMATION OF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS IN QUEUEING MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. I. Aliev

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available For probability distributions with variation coefficient, not equal to unity, mathematical dependences for approximating distributions on the basis of first two moments are derived by making use of multi exponential distributions. It is proposed to approximate distributions with coefficient of variation less than unity by using hypoexponential distribution, which makes it possible to generate random variables with coefficient of variation, taking any value in a range (0; 1, as opposed to Erlang distribution, having only discrete values of coefficient of variation.

  1. Probability of atrial fibrillation after ablation: Using a parametric nonlinear temporal decomposition mixed effects model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajeswaran, Jeevanantham; Blackstone, Eugene H; Ehrlinger, John; Li, Liang; Ishwaran, Hemant; Parides, Michael K

    2018-01-01

    Atrial fibrillation is an arrhythmic disorder where the electrical signals of the heart become irregular. The probability of atrial fibrillation (binary response) is often time varying in a structured fashion, as is the influence of associated risk factors. A generalized nonlinear mixed effects model is presented to estimate the time-related probability of atrial fibrillation using a temporal decomposition approach to reveal the pattern of the probability of atrial fibrillation and their determinants. This methodology generalizes to patient-specific analysis of longitudinal binary data with possibly time-varying effects of covariates and with different patient-specific random effects influencing different temporal phases. The motivation and application of this model is illustrated using longitudinally measured atrial fibrillation data obtained through weekly trans-telephonic monitoring from an NIH sponsored clinical trial being conducted by the Cardiothoracic Surgery Clinical Trials Network.

  2. Direct probability mapping of contaminants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rautman, C.A.

    1993-01-01

    Exhaustive characterization of a contaminated site is a physical and practical impossibility. Descriptions of the nature, extent, and level of contamination, as well as decisions regarding proposed remediation activities, must be made in a state of uncertainty based upon limited physical sampling. Geostatistical simulation provides powerful tools for investigating contaminant levels, and in particular, for identifying and using the spatial interrelationships among a set of isolated sample values. This additional information can be used to assess the likelihood of encountering contamination at unsampled locations and to evaluate the risk associated with decisions to remediate or not to remediate specific regions within a site. Past operation of the DOE Feed Materials Production Center has contaminated a site near Fernald, Ohio, with natural uranium. Soil geochemical data have been collected as part of the Uranium-in-Soils Integrated Demonstration Project. These data have been used to construct a number of stochastic images of potential contamination for parcels approximately the size of a selective remediation unit. Each such image accurately reflects the actual measured sample values, and reproduces the univariate statistics and spatial character of the extant data. Post-processing of a large number of these equally likely, statistically similar images produces maps directly showing the probability of exceeding specified levels of contamination. Evaluation of the geostatistical simulations can yield maps representing the expected magnitude of the contamination for various regions and other information that may be important in determining a suitable remediation process or in sizing equipment to accomplish the restoration

  3. Spatial Probability Cuing and Right Hemisphere Damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaqiri, Albulena; Anderson, Britt

    2012-01-01

    In this experiment we studied statistical learning, inter-trial priming, and visual attention. We assessed healthy controls and right brain damaged (RBD) patients with and without neglect, on a simple visual discrimination task designed to measure priming effects and probability learning. All participants showed a preserved priming effect for item…

  4. Targeting the probability versus cost of feared outcomes in public speaking anxiety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Elizabeth A; Deacon, Brett J; Lickel, James J; Sy, Jennifer T

    2010-04-01

    Cognitive-behavioral theory suggests that social phobia is maintained, in part, by overestimates of the probability and cost of negative social events. Indeed, empirically supported cognitive-behavioral treatments directly target these cognitive biases through the use of in vivo exposure or behavioral experiments. While cognitive-behavioral theories and treatment protocols emphasize the importance of targeting probability and cost biases in the reduction of social anxiety, few studies have examined specific techniques for reducing probability and cost bias, and thus the relative efficacy of exposure to the probability versus cost of negative social events is unknown. In the present study, 37 undergraduates with high public speaking anxiety were randomly assigned to a single-session intervention designed to reduce either the perceived probability or the perceived cost of negative outcomes associated with public speaking. Compared to participants in the probability treatment condition, those in the cost treatment condition demonstrated significantly greater improvement on measures of public speaking anxiety and cost estimates for negative social events. The superior efficacy of the cost treatment condition was mediated by greater treatment-related changes in social cost estimates. The clinical implications of these findings are discussed. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  5. The relationship, structure and profiles of schizophrenia measurements: a post-hoc analysis of the baseline measures from a randomized clinical trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Lei

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Background To fully assess the various dimensions affected by schizophrenia, clinical trials often include multiple scales measuring various symptom profiles, cognition, quality of life, subjective well-being, and functional impairment. In this exploratory study, we characterized the relationships among six clinical, functional, cognitive, and quality-of-life measures, identifying a parsimonious set of measurements. Methods We used baseline data from a randomized, multicenter study of patients diagnosed with schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorder, or schizophreniform disorder who were experiencing an acute symptom exacerbation (n = 628 to examine the relationship among several outcome measures. These measures included the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS, Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS, Brief Assessment of Cognition in Schizophrenia Symbol Coding Test, Subjective Well-being Under Neuroleptics Scale Short Form (SWN-K, Schizophrenia Objective Functioning Instrument (SOFI, and Quality of Life Scale (QLS. Three analytic approaches were used: 1 path analysis; 2 factor analysis; and 3 categorical latent variable analysis. In the optimal path model, the SWN-K was selected as the final outcome, while the SOFI mediated the effect of the exogenous variables (PANSS, MADRS on the QLS. Results The overall model explained 47% of variance in QLS and 17% of the variance in SOFI, but only 15% in SWN-K. Factor analysis suggested four factors: "Functioning," "Daily Living," "Depression," and "Psychopathology." A strong positive correlation was observed between the SOFI and QLS (r = 0.669, and both the QLS and SOFI loaded on the "Functioning" factor, suggesting redundancy between these scales. The measurement profiles from the categorical latent variable analysis showed significant variation in functioning and quality of life despite similar levels of psychopathology. Conclusions Researchers should consider collecting PANSS, SOFI, and

  6. Probable Inference and Quantum Mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grandy, W. T. Jr.

    2009-01-01

    In its current very successful interpretation the quantum theory is fundamentally statistical in nature. Although commonly viewed as a probability amplitude whose (complex) square is a probability, the wavefunction or state vector continues to defy consensus as to its exact meaning, primarily because it is not a physical observable. Rather than approach this problem directly, it is suggested that it is first necessary to clarify the precise role of probability theory in quantum mechanics, either as applied to, or as an intrinsic part of the quantum theory. When all is said and done the unsurprising conclusion is that quantum mechanics does not constitute a logic and probability unto itself, but adheres to the long-established rules of classical probability theory while providing a means within itself for calculating the relevant probabilities. In addition, the wavefunction is seen to be a description of the quantum state assigned by an observer based on definite information, such that the same state must be assigned by any other observer based on the same information, in much the same way that probabilities are assigned.

  7. TRUNCATED RANDOM MEASURES

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-12

    Stegun, editors. Handbook of Mathematical Functions. Dover Publications, 1964. D Banjevic, H. Ishwaran, and M Zarepour. A recursive method for...STATEMENT. FOR THE CHIEF ENGINEER: / S / / S / CHRISTOPHER J. FLYNN JOHN D. MATYJAS Work Unit Manager Technical Advisor, Computing...individual’s genetic data might be a product of the populations to which their ancestors belonged, or a user’s activity on a social network might be dictated by

  8. The effects of humor therapy on nursing home residents measured using observational methods: the SMILE cluster randomized trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Low, Lee-Fay; Goodenough, Belinda; Fletcher, Jennifer; Xu, Kenny; Casey, Anne-Nicole; Chenoweth, Lynn; Fleming, Richard; Spitzer, Peter; Bell, Jean-Paul; Brodaty, Henry

    2014-08-01

    To evaluate the effects of humor therapy assessed using observational methods on agitation, engagement, positive behaviors, affect, and contentment. Single-blind cluster randomized controlled trial. A total of 35 Sydney nursing homes. All eligible residents within geographically defined areas within each nursing home were invited to participate. Professional "ElderClowns" provided 9 to 12 weekly humor therapy sessions, augmented by resident engagement by trained staff "LaughterBosses." Controls received usual care. The Behavior Engagement Affect Measure (BEAM) touchpad observational tool was used to capture real-time behavioral data. The tool assesses the duration in seconds of agitation, positive behavior toward others, engagement, and affect (angry, anxious, happy, neutral, sad). Seventeen nursing homes (189 residents) received the intervention and 18 homes (209 residents) received usual care. Over 26 weeks, in comparison with controls, the humor therapy group decreased in duration of high agitation (effect size = 0.168 and 0.129 at 13 and 26 weeks, respectively) and increased in duration of happiness (effect size = 0.4 and 0.236 at 13 and 26 weeks, respectively). We confirmed that humor therapy decreases agitation and also showed that it increases happiness. Researchers may consider evaluating impacts of nonpharmaceutical interventions on positive outcomes. Computer-assisted observational measures should be considered, particularly for residents with dementia and when the reliability of staff is uncertain. Copyright © 2014 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Sampling Random Bioinformatics Puzzles using Adaptive Probability Distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Have, Christian Theil; Appel, Emil Vincent; Bork-Jensen, Jette

    2016-01-01

    We present a probabilistic logic program to generate an educational puzzle that introduces the basic principles of next generation sequencing, gene finding and the translation of genes to proteins following the central dogma in biology. In the puzzle, a secret "protein word" must be found by asse...

  10. The influence of random and systematic errors on a general definition of minimum detectable amount (MDA) applicable to all radiobioassay measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brodsky, A.

    1985-01-01

    An approach to defining minimum detectable amount (MDA) of radioactivity in a sample will be discussed, with the aim of obtaining comments helpful in developing a formulation of MDA that will be broadly applicable to all kinds of radiobioassay measurements, and acceptable to the scientists who make these measurements. Also, the influence of random and systematic errors on the defined MDA are examined

  11. A philosophical essay on probabilities

    CERN Document Server

    Laplace, Marquis de

    1996-01-01

    A classic of science, this famous essay by ""the Newton of France"" introduces lay readers to the concepts and uses of probability theory. It is of especial interest today as an application of mathematical techniques to problems in social and biological sciences.Generally recognized as the founder of the modern phase of probability theory, Laplace here applies the principles and general results of his theory ""to the most important questions of life, which are, in effect, for the most part, problems in probability."" Thus, without the use of higher mathematics, he demonstrates the application

  12. Superparamagnetic perpendicular magnetic tunnel junctions for true random number generators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parks, Bradley; Bapna, Mukund; Igbokwe, Julianne; Almasi, Hamid; Wang, Weigang; Majetich, Sara A.

    2018-05-01

    Superparamagnetic perpendicular magnetic tunnel junctions are fabricated and analyzed for use in random number generators. Time-resolved resistance measurements are used as streams of bits in statistical tests for randomness. Voltage control of the thermal stability enables tuning the average speed of random bit generation up to 70 kHz in a 60 nm diameter device. In its most efficient operating mode, the device generates random bits at an energy cost of 600 fJ/bit. A narrow range of magnetic field tunes the probability of a given state from 0 to 1, offering a means of probabilistic computing.

  13. Effects of Video Game Training on Behavioral and Electrophysiological Measures of Attention and Memory: Protocol for a Randomized Controlled Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballesteros, Soledad; Mayas, Julia; Ruiz-Marquez, Eloisa; Prieto, Antonio; Toril, Pilar; Ponce de Leon, Laura; de Ceballos, Maria L; Reales Avilés, José Manuel

    2017-01-24

    Neuroplasticity-based approaches seem to offer promising ways of maintaining cognitive health in older adults and postponing the onset of cognitive decline symptoms. Although previous research suggests that training can produce transfer effects, this study was designed to overcome some limitations of previous studies by incorporating an active control group and the assessment of training expectations. The main objectives of this study are (1) to evaluate the effects of a randomized computer-based intervention consisting of training older adults with nonaction video games on brain and cognitive functions that decline with age, including attention and spatial working memory, using behavioral measures and electrophysiological recordings (event-related potentials [ERPs]) just after training and after a 6-month no-contact period; (2) to explore whether motivation, engagement, or expectations might account for possible training-related improvements; and (3) to examine whether inflammatory mechanisms assessed with noninvasive measurement of C-reactive protein in saliva impair cognitive training-induced effects. A better understanding of these mechanisms could elucidate pathways that could be targeted in the future by either behavioral or neuropsychological interventions. A single-blinded randomized controlled trial with an experimental group and an active control group, pretest, posttest, and 6-month follow-up repeated measures design is used in this study. A total of 75 cognitively healthy older adults were randomly distributed into experimental and active control groups. Participants in the experimental group received 16 1-hour training sessions with cognitive nonaction video games selected from Lumosity, a commercial brain training package. The active control group received the same number of training sessions with The Sims and SimCity, a simulation strategy game. We have recruited participants, have conducted the training protocol and pretest assessments, and are

  14. Logic, probability, and human reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson-Laird, P N; Khemlani, Sangeet S; Goodwin, Geoffrey P

    2015-04-01

    This review addresses the long-standing puzzle of how logic and probability fit together in human reasoning. Many cognitive scientists argue that conventional logic cannot underlie deductions, because it never requires valid conclusions to be withdrawn - not even if they are false; it treats conditional assertions implausibly; and it yields many vapid, although valid, conclusions. A new paradigm of probability logic allows conclusions to be withdrawn and treats conditionals more plausibly, although it does not address the problem of vapidity. The theory of mental models solves all of these problems. It explains how people reason about probabilities and postulates that the machinery for reasoning is itself probabilistic. Recent investigations accordingly suggest a way to integrate probability and deduction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Does Patient Preference Measurement in Decision Aids Improve Decisional Conflict? A Randomized Trial in Men with Prostate Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shirk, Joseph D; Crespi, Catherine M; Saucedo, Josemanuel D; Lambrechts, Sylvia; Dahan, Ely; Kaplan, Robert; Saigal, Christopher

    2017-12-01

    Shared decision making (SDM) has been advocated as an approach to medical decision making that can improve decisional quality. Decision aids are tools that facilitate SDM in the context of limited physician time; however, many decision aids do not incorporate preference measurement. We aim to understand whether adding preference measurement to a standard patient educational intervention improves decisional quality and is feasible in a busy clinical setting. Men with incident localized prostate cancer (n = 122) were recruited from the Greater Los Angeles Veterans Affairs (VA) Medical Center urology clinic, Olive View UCLA Medical Center, and Harbor UCLA Medical Center from January 2011 to May 2015 and randomized to education with a brochure about prostate cancer treatment or software-based preference assessment in addition to the brochure. Men undergoing preference assessment received a report detailing the relative strength of their preferences for treatment outcomes used in review with their doctor. Participants completed instruments measuring decisional conflict, knowledge, SDM, and patient satisfaction with care before and/or after their cancer consultation. Baseline knowledge scores were low (mean 62%). The baseline mean total score on the Decisional Conflict Scale was 2.3 (±0.9), signifying moderate decisional conflict. Men undergoing preference assessment had a significantly larger decrease in decisional conflict total score (p = 0.023) and the Perceived Effective Decision Making subscale (p = 0.003) post consult compared with those receiving education only. Improvements in satisfaction with care, SDM, and knowledge were similar between groups. Individual-level preference assessment is feasible in the clinic setting. Patients with prostate cancer who undergo preference assessment are more certain about their treatment decisions and report decreased levels of decisional conflict when making these decisions.

  16. Validation and Reliability of a Smartphone Application for the International Prostate Symptom Score Questionnaire: A Randomized Repeated Measures Crossover Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shim, Sung Ryul; Sun, Hwa Yeon; Ko, Young Myoung; Chun, Dong-Il; Yang, Won Jae

    2014-01-01

    Background Smartphone-based assessment may be a useful diagnostic and monitoring tool for patients. There have been many attempts to create a smartphone diagnostic tool for clinical use in various medical fields but few have demonstrated scientific validity. Objective The purpose of this study was to develop a smartphone application of the International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS) and to demonstrate its validity and reliability. Methods From June 2012 to May 2013, a total of 1581 male participants (≥40 years old), with or without lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS), visited our urology clinic via the health improvement center at Soonchunhyang University Hospital (Republic of Korea) and were enrolled in this study. A randomized repeated measures crossover design was employed using a smartphone application of the IPSS and the conventional paper form of the IPSS. Paired t test under a hypothesis of non-inferior trial was conducted. For the reliability test, the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was measured. Results The total score of the IPSS (P=.289) and each item of the IPSS (P=.157-1.000) showed no differences between the paper version and the smartphone version of the IPSS. The mild, moderate, and severe LUTS groups showed no differences between the two versions of the IPSS. A significant correlation was noted in the total group (ICC=.935, Psmartphones could participate. Conclusions The validity and reliability of the smartphone application version were comparable to the conventional paper version of the IPSS. The smartphone application of the IPSS could be an effective method for measuring lower urinary tract symptoms. PMID:24513507

  17. Default probabilities and default correlations

    OpenAIRE

    Erlenmaier, Ulrich; Gersbach, Hans

    2001-01-01

    Starting from the Merton framework for firm defaults, we provide the analytics and robustness of the relationship between default correlations. We show that loans with higher default probabilities will not only have higher variances but also higher correlations between loans. As a consequence, portfolio standard deviation can increase substantially when loan default probabilities rise. This result has two important implications. First, relative prices of loans with different default probabili...

  18. The Probabilities of Unique Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-30

    Washington, DC USA Max Lotstein and Phil Johnson-Laird Department of Psychology Princeton University Princeton, NJ USA August 30th 2012...social justice and also participated in antinuclear demonstrations. The participants ranked the probability that Linda is a feminist bank teller as...retorted that such a flagrant violation of the probability calculus was a result of a psychological experiment that obscured the rationality of the

  19. Probability Matching, Fast and Slow

    OpenAIRE

    Koehler, Derek J.; James, Greta

    2014-01-01

    A prominent point of contention among researchers regarding the interpretation of probability-matching behavior is whether it represents a cognitively sophisticated, adaptive response to the inherent uncertainty of the tasks or settings in which it is observed, or whether instead it represents a fundamental shortcoming in the heuristics that support and guide human decision making. Put crudely, researchers disagree on whether probability matching is "smart" or "dumb." Here, we consider eviden...

  20. Palm theory for random time changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masakiyo Miyazawa

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available Palm distributions are basic tools when studying stationarity in the context of point processes, queueing systems, fluid queues or random measures. The framework varies with the random phenomenon of interest, but usually a one-dimensional group of measure-preserving shifts is the starting point. In the present paper, by alternatively using a framework involving random time changes (RTCs and a two-dimensional family of shifts, we are able to characterize all of the above systems in a single framework. Moreover, this leads to what we call the detailed Palm distribution (DPD which is stationary with respect to a certain group of shifts. The DPD has a very natural interpretation as the distribution seen at a randomly chosen position on the extended graph of the RTC, and satisfies a general duality criterion: the DPD of the DPD gives the underlying probability P in return.

  1. Prospect evaluation as a function of numeracy and probability denominator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millroth, Philip; Juslin, Peter

    2015-05-01

    This study examines how numeracy and probability denominator (a direct-ratio probability, a relative frequency with denominator 100, a relative frequency with denominator 10,000) affect the evaluation of prospects in an expected-value based pricing task. We expected that numeracy would affect the results due to differences in the linearity of number perception and the susceptibility to denominator neglect with different probability formats. An analysis with functional measurement verified that participants integrated value and probability into an expected value. However, a significant interaction between numeracy and probability format and subsequent analyses of the parameters of cumulative prospect theory showed that the manipulation of probability denominator changed participants' psychophysical response to probability and value. Standard methods in decision research may thus confound people's genuine risk attitude with their numerical capacities and the probability format used. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Reliability of structures by using probability and fatigue theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Ouk Sub; Kim, Dong Hyeok; Park, Yeon Chang

    2008-01-01

    Methodologies to calculate failure probability and to estimate the reliability of fatigue loaded structures are developed. The applicability of the methodologies is evaluated with the help of the fatigue crack growth models suggested by Paris and Walker. The probability theories such as the FORM (first order reliability method), the SORM (second order reliability method) and the MCS (Monte Carlo simulation) are utilized. It is found that the failure probability decreases with the increase of the design fatigue life and the applied minimum stress, the decrease of the initial edge crack size, the applied maximum stress and the slope of Paris equation. Furthermore, according to the sensitivity analysis of random variables, the slope of Pairs equation affects the failure probability dominantly among other random variables in the Paris and the Walker models

  3. THE BLACK HOLE FORMATION PROBABILITY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clausen, Drew; Piro, Anthony L.; Ott, Christian D., E-mail: dclausen@tapir.caltech.edu [TAPIR, Walter Burke Institute for Theoretical Physics, California Institute of Technology, Mailcode 350-17, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States)

    2015-02-01

    A longstanding question in stellar evolution is which massive stars produce black holes (BHs) rather than neutron stars (NSs) upon death. It has been common practice to assume that a given zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass star (and perhaps a given metallicity) simply produces either an NS or a BH, but this fails to account for a myriad of other variables that may effect this outcome, such as spin, binarity, or even stochastic differences in the stellar structure near core collapse. We argue that instead a probabilistic description of NS versus BH formation may be better suited to account for the current uncertainties in understanding how massive stars die. We present an initial exploration of the probability that a star will make a BH as a function of its ZAMS mass, P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}). Although we find that it is difficult to derive a unique P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}) using current measurements of both the BH mass distribution and the degree of chemical enrichment by massive stars, we demonstrate how P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}) changes with these various observational and theoretical uncertainties. We anticipate that future studies of Galactic BHs and theoretical studies of core collapse will refine P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}) and argue that this framework is an important new step toward better understanding BH formation. A probabilistic description of BH formation will be useful as input for future population synthesis studies that are interested in the formation of X-ray binaries, the nature and event rate of gravitational wave sources, and answering questions about chemical enrichment.

  4. THE BLACK HOLE FORMATION PROBABILITY

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clausen, Drew; Piro, Anthony L.; Ott, Christian D.

    2015-01-01

    A longstanding question in stellar evolution is which massive stars produce black holes (BHs) rather than neutron stars (NSs) upon death. It has been common practice to assume that a given zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass star (and perhaps a given metallicity) simply produces either an NS or a BH, but this fails to account for a myriad of other variables that may effect this outcome, such as spin, binarity, or even stochastic differences in the stellar structure near core collapse. We argue that instead a probabilistic description of NS versus BH formation may be better suited to account for the current uncertainties in understanding how massive stars die. We present an initial exploration of the probability that a star will make a BH as a function of its ZAMS mass, P BH (M ZAMS ). Although we find that it is difficult to derive a unique P BH (M ZAMS ) using current measurements of both the BH mass distribution and the degree of chemical enrichment by massive stars, we demonstrate how P BH (M ZAMS ) changes with these various observational and theoretical uncertainties. We anticipate that future studies of Galactic BHs and theoretical studies of core collapse will refine P BH (M ZAMS ) and argue that this framework is an important new step toward better understanding BH formation. A probabilistic description of BH formation will be useful as input for future population synthesis studies that are interested in the formation of X-ray binaries, the nature and event rate of gravitational wave sources, and answering questions about chemical enrichment

  5. The Black Hole Formation Probability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clausen, Drew; Piro, Anthony L.; Ott, Christian D.

    2015-02-01

    A longstanding question in stellar evolution is which massive stars produce black holes (BHs) rather than neutron stars (NSs) upon death. It has been common practice to assume that a given zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass star (and perhaps a given metallicity) simply produces either an NS or a BH, but this fails to account for a myriad of other variables that may effect this outcome, such as spin, binarity, or even stochastic differences in the stellar structure near core collapse. We argue that instead a probabilistic description of NS versus BH formation may be better suited to account for the current uncertainties in understanding how massive stars die. We present an initial exploration of the probability that a star will make a BH as a function of its ZAMS mass, P BH(M ZAMS). Although we find that it is difficult to derive a unique P BH(M ZAMS) using current measurements of both the BH mass distribution and the degree of chemical enrichment by massive stars, we demonstrate how P BH(M ZAMS) changes with these various observational and theoretical uncertainties. We anticipate that future studies of Galactic BHs and theoretical studies of core collapse will refine P BH(M ZAMS) and argue that this framework is an important new step toward better understanding BH formation. A probabilistic description of BH formation will be useful as input for future population synthesis studies that are interested in the formation of X-ray binaries, the nature and event rate of gravitational wave sources, and answering questions about chemical enrichment.

  6. Theory of overdispersion in counting statistics caused by fluctuating probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Semkow, Thomas M.

    1999-01-01

    It is shown that the random Lexis fluctuations of probabilities such as probability of decay or detection cause the counting statistics to be overdispersed with respect to the classical binomial, Poisson, or Gaussian distributions. The generating and the distribution functions for the overdispersed counting statistics are derived. Applications to radioactive decay with detection and more complex experiments are given, as well as distinguishing between the source and background, in the presence of overdispersion. Monte-Carlo verifications are provided

  7. Information-theoretic methods for estimating of complicated probability distributions

    CERN Document Server

    Zong, Zhi

    2006-01-01

    Mixing up various disciplines frequently produces something that are profound and far-reaching. Cybernetics is such an often-quoted example. Mix of information theory, statistics and computing technology proves to be very useful, which leads to the recent development of information-theory based methods for estimating complicated probability distributions. Estimating probability distribution of a random variable is the fundamental task for quite some fields besides statistics, such as reliability, probabilistic risk analysis (PSA), machine learning, pattern recognization, image processing, neur

  8. Random phenomena; Phenomenes aleatoires

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bonnet, G. [Commissariat a l' energie atomique et aux energies alternatives - CEA, C.E.N.G., Service d' Electronique, Section d' Electronique, Grenoble (France)

    1963-07-01

    This document gathers a set of conferences presented in 1962. A first one proposes a mathematical introduction to the analysis of random phenomena. The second one presents an axiomatic of probability calculation. The third one proposes an overview of one-dimensional random variables. The fourth one addresses random pairs, and presents basic theorems regarding the algebra of mathematical expectations. The fifth conference discusses some probability laws: binomial distribution, the Poisson distribution, and the Laplace-Gauss distribution. The last one deals with the issues of stochastic convergence and asymptotic distributions.

  9. Elements of probability and statistics an introduction to probability with De Finetti’s approach and to Bayesian statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Biagini, Francesca

    2016-01-01

    This book provides an introduction to elementary probability and to Bayesian statistics using de Finetti's subjectivist approach. One of the features of this approach is that it does not require the introduction of sample space – a non-intrinsic concept that makes the treatment of elementary probability unnecessarily complicate – but introduces as fundamental the concept of random numbers directly related to their interpretation in applications. Events become a particular case of random numbers and probability a particular case of expectation when it is applied to events. The subjective evaluation of expectation and of conditional expectation is based on an economic choice of an acceptable bet or penalty. The properties of expectation and conditional expectation are derived by applying a coherence criterion that the evaluation has to follow. The book is suitable for all introductory courses in probability and statistics for students in Mathematics, Informatics, Engineering, and Physics.

  10. Do cognitive measures and brain circuitry predict outcomes of exercise in Parkinson Disease: a randomized clinical trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, L A; Peterson, D S; Mancini, M; Carlson-Kuhta, P; Fling, B W; Smulders, K; Nutt, J G; Dale, M; Carter, J; Winters-Stone, K M; Horak, F B

    2015-10-24

    There is emerging research detailing the relationship between balance/gait/falls and cognition. Imaging studies also suggest a link between structural and functional changes in the frontal lobe (a region commonly associated with cognitive function) and mobility. People with Parkinson's disease have important changes in cognitive function that may impact rehabilitation efficacy. Our underlying hypothesis is that cognitive function and frontal lobe connections with the basal ganglia and brainstem posture/locomotor centers are responsible for postural deficits in people with Parkinson's disease and play a role in rehabilitation efficacy. The purpose of this study is to 1) determine if people with Parkinson's disease can improve mobility and/or cognition after partaking in a cognitively challenging mobility exercise program and 2) determine if cognition and brain circuitry deficits predict responsiveness to exercise rehabilitation. This study is a randomized cross-over controlled intervention to take place at a University Balance Disorders Laboratory. The study participants will be people with Parkinson's disease who meet inclusion criteria for the study. The intervention will be 6 weeks of group exercise (case) and 6 weeks of group education (control). The exercise is a cognitively challenging program based on the Agility Boot Camp for people with PD. The education program is a 6-week program to teach people how to better live with a chronic disease. The primary outcome measure is the MiniBESTest and the secondary outcomes are measures of mobility, cognition and neural imaging. The results from this study will further our understanding of the relationship between cognition and mobility with a focus on brain circuitry as it relates to rehabilitation potential. This trial is registered at clinical trials.gov (NCT02231073).

  11. Visualization techniques for spatial probability density function data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Udeepta D Bordoloi

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Novel visualization methods are presented for spatial probability density function data. These are spatial datasets, where each pixel is a random variable, and has multiple samples which are the results of experiments on that random variable. We use clustering as a means to reduce the information contained in these datasets; and present two different ways of interpreting and clustering the data. The clustering methods are used on two datasets, and the results are discussed with the help of visualization techniques designed for the spatial probability data.

  12. Betting on Illusory Patterns: Probability Matching in Habitual Gamblers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaissmaier, Wolfgang; Wilke, Andreas; Scheibehenne, Benjamin; McCanney, Paige; Barrett, H Clark

    2016-03-01

    Why do people gamble? A large body of research suggests that cognitive distortions play an important role in pathological gambling. Many of these distortions are specific cases of a more general misperception of randomness, specifically of an illusory perception of patterns in random sequences. In this article, we provide further evidence for the assumption that gamblers are particularly prone to perceiving illusory patterns. In particular, we compared habitual gamblers to a matched sample of community members with regard to how much they exhibit the choice anomaly 'probability matching'. Probability matching describes the tendency to match response proportions to outcome probabilities when predicting binary outcomes. It leads to a lower expected accuracy than the maximizing strategy of predicting the most likely event on each trial. Previous research has shown that an illusory perception of patterns in random sequences fuels probability matching. So does impulsivity, which is also reported to be higher in gamblers. We therefore hypothesized that gamblers will exhibit more probability matching than non-gamblers, which was confirmed in a controlled laboratory experiment. Additionally, gamblers scored much lower than community members on the cognitive reflection task, which indicates higher impulsivity. This difference could account for the difference in probability matching between the samples. These results suggest that gamblers are more willing to bet impulsively on perceived illusory patterns.

  13. Direct Measurement of Static and Dynamic Contact Angles Using a Random Micromodel Considering Geological CO2 Sequestration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Jafari

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The pore-level two-phase fluids flow mechanism needs to be understood for geological CO2 sequestration as a solution to mitigate anthropogenic emission of carbon dioxide. Capillary pressure at the interface of water–CO2 influences CO2 injectability, capacity, and safety of the storage system. Wettability usually measured by contact angle is always a major uncertainty source among important parameters affecting capillary pressure. The contact angle is mostly determined on a flat surface as a representative of the rock surface. However, a simple and precise method for determining in situ contact angle at pore-scale is needed to simulate fluids flow in porous media. Recent progresses in X-ray tomography technique has provided a robust way to measure in situ contact angle of rocks. However, slow imaging and complicated image processing make it impossible to measure dynamic contact angle. In the present paper, a series of static and dynamic contact angles as well as contact angles on flat surface were measured inside a micromodel with random pattern of channels under high pressure condition. Our results showed a wide range of pore-scale contact angles, implying complexity of the pore-scale contact angle even in a highly smooth and chemically homogenous glass micromodel. Receding contact angle (RCA showed more reproducibility compared to advancing contact angle (ACA and static contact angle (SCA for repeating tests and during both drainage and imbibition. With decreasing pore size, RCA was increased. The hysteresis of the dynamic contact angle (ACA–RCA was higher at pressure of one megapascal in comparison with that at eight megapascals. The CO2 bubble had higher mobility at higher depths due to lower hysteresis which is unfavorable. CO2 bubbles resting on the flat surface of the micromodel channel showed a wide range of contact angles. They were much higher than reported contact angle values observed with sessile drop or captive bubble tests on a

  14. Use of a surgical rehearsal platform and improvement in aneurysm clipping measures: results of a prospective, randomized trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chugh, A Jessey; Pace, Jonathan R; Singer, Justin; Tatsuoka, Curtis; Hoffer, Alan; Selman, Warren R; Bambakidis, Nicholas C

    2017-03-01

    OBJECTIVE The field of neurosurgery is constantly undergoing improvements and advances, both in technique and technology. Cerebrovascular neurosurgery is no exception, with endovascular treatments changing the treatment paradigm. Clipping of aneurysms is still necessary, however, and advances are still being made to improve patient outcomes within the microsurgical treatment of aneurysms. Surgical rehearsal platforms are surgical simulators that offer the opportunity to rehearse a procedure prior to entering the operative suite. This study is designed to determine whether use of a surgical rehearsal platform in aneurysm surgery is helpful in decreasing aneurysm dissection time and clip manipulation of the aneurysm. METHODS The authors conducted a blinded, prospective, randomized study comparing key effort and time variables in aneurysm clip ligation surgery with and without preoperative use of the SuRgical Planner (SRP) surgical rehearsal platform. Initially, 40 patients were randomly assigned to either of two groups: one in which surgery was performed after use of the SRP (SRP group) and one in which surgery was performed without use of the SRP (control group). All operations were videotaped. After exclusion of 6 patients from the SRP group and 9 from the control group, a total of 25 surgical cases were analyzed by a reviewer blinded to group assignment. The videos were analyzed for total microsurgical time, number of clips used, and number of clip placement attempts. Means and standard deviations (SDs) were calculated and compared between groups. RESULTS The mean (± SD) amount of operative time per clip used was 920 ± 770 seconds in the SRP group and 1294 ± 678 seconds in the control group (p = 0.05). In addition, the mean values for the number of clip attempts, total operative time, ratio of clip attempts to clips used, and time per clip attempt were all lower in the SRP group, although the between-group differences were not statistically significant

  15. Introduction to probability and stochastic processes with applications

    CERN Document Server

    Castañ, Blanco; Arunachalam, Viswanathan; Dharmaraja, Selvamuthu

    2012-01-01

    An easily accessible, real-world approach to probability and stochastic processes Introduction to Probability and Stochastic Processes with Applications presents a clear, easy-to-understand treatment of probability and stochastic processes, providing readers with a solid foundation they can build upon throughout their careers. With an emphasis on applications in engineering, applied sciences, business and finance, statistics, mathematics, and operations research, the book features numerous real-world examples that illustrate how random phenomena occur in nature and how to use probabilistic t

  16. VIBRATION ISOLATION SYSTEM PROBABILITY ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smirnov Vladimir Alexandrovich

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the probability analysis for a vibration isolation system of high-precision equipment, which is extremely sensitive to low-frequency oscillations even of submicron amplitude. The external sources of low-frequency vibrations may include the natural city background or internal low-frequency sources inside buildings (pedestrian activity, HVAC. Taking Gauss distribution into account, the author estimates the probability of the relative displacement of the isolated mass being still lower than the vibration criteria. This problem is being solved in the three dimensional space, evolved by the system parameters, including damping and natural frequency. According to this probability distribution, the chance of exceeding the vibration criteria for a vibration isolation system is evaluated. Optimal system parameters - damping and natural frequency - are being developed, thus the possibility of exceeding vibration criteria VC-E and VC-D is assumed to be less than 0.04.

  17. Approximation methods in probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    Čekanavičius, Vydas

    2016-01-01

    This book presents a wide range of well-known and less common methods used for estimating the accuracy of probabilistic approximations, including the Esseen type inversion formulas, the Stein method as well as the methods of convolutions and triangle function. Emphasising the correct usage of the methods presented, each step required for the proofs is examined in detail. As a result, this textbook provides valuable tools for proving approximation theorems. While Approximation Methods in Probability Theory will appeal to everyone interested in limit theorems of probability theory, the book is particularly aimed at graduate students who have completed a standard intermediate course in probability theory. Furthermore, experienced researchers wanting to enlarge their toolkit will also find this book useful.

  18. Use of probability tables for propagating uncertainties in neutronics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coste-Delclaux, M.; Diop, C.M.; Lahaye, S.

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Moment-based probability table formalism is described. • Representation by probability tables of any uncertainty distribution is established. • Multiband equations for two kinds of uncertainty propagation problems are solved. • Numerical examples are provided and validated against Monte Carlo simulations. - Abstract: Probability tables are a generic tool that allows representing any random variable whose probability density function is known. In the field of nuclear reactor physics, this tool is currently used to represent the variation of cross-sections versus energy (neutron transport codes TRIPOLI4®, MCNP, APOLLO2, APOLLO3®, ECCO/ERANOS…). In the present article we show how we can propagate uncertainties, thanks to a probability table representation, through two simple physical problems: an eigenvalue problem (neutron multiplication factor) and a depletion problem.

  19. Random broadcast on random geometric graphs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bradonjic, Milan [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Elsasser, Robert [UNIV OF PADERBORN; Friedrich, Tobias [ICSI/BERKELEY; Sauerwald, Tomas [ICSI/BERKELEY

    2009-01-01

    In this work, we consider the random broadcast time on random geometric graphs (RGGs). The classic random broadcast model, also known as push algorithm, is defined as: starting with one informed node, in each succeeding round every informed node chooses one of its neighbors uniformly at random and informs it. We consider the random broadcast time on RGGs, when with high probability: (i) RGG is connected, (ii) when there exists the giant component in RGG. We show that the random broadcast time is bounded by {Omicron}({radical} n + diam(component)), where diam(component) is a diameter of the entire graph, or the giant component, for the regimes (i), or (ii), respectively. In other words, for both regimes, we derive the broadcast time to be {Theta}(diam(G)), which is asymptotically optimal.

  20. Factors influencing reporting and harvest probabilities in North American geese

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmerman, G.S.; Moser, T.J.; Kendall, W.L.; Doherty, P.F.; White, Gary C.; Caswell, D.F.

    2009-01-01

    We assessed variation in reporting probabilities of standard bands among species, populations, harvest locations, and size classes of North American geese to enable estimation of unbiased harvest probabilities. We included reward (US10,20,30,50, or100) and control (0) banded geese from 16 recognized goose populations of 4 species: Canada (Branta canadensis), cackling (B. hutchinsii), Ross's (Chen rossii), and snow geese (C. caerulescens). We incorporated spatially explicit direct recoveries and live recaptures into a multinomial model to estimate reporting, harvest, and band-retention probabilities. We compared various models for estimating harvest probabilities at country (United States vs. Canada), flyway (5 administrative regions), and harvest area (i.e., flyways divided into northern and southern sections) scales. Mean reporting probability of standard bands was 0.73 (95 CI 0.690.77). Point estimates of reporting probabilities for goose populations or spatial units varied from 0.52 to 0.93, but confidence intervals for individual estimates overlapped and model selection indicated that models with species, population, or spatial effects were less parsimonious than those without these effects. Our estimates were similar to recently reported estimates for mallards (Anas platyrhynchos). We provide current harvest probability estimates for these populations using our direct measures of reporting probability, improving the accuracy of previous estimates obtained from recovery probabilities alone. Goose managers and researchers throughout North America can use our reporting probabilities to correct recovery probabilities estimated from standard banding operations for deriving spatially explicit harvest probabilities.