A random energy model for size dependence : recurrence vs. transience
Külske, Christof
1998-01-01
We investigate the size dependence of disordered spin models having an infinite number of Gibbs measures in the framework of a simplified 'random energy model for size dependence'. We introduce two versions (involving either independent random walks or branching processes), that can be seen as
Activated aging dynamics and effective trap model description in the random energy model
Baity-Jesi, M.; Biroli, G.; Cammarota, C.
2018-01-01
We study the out-of-equilibrium aging dynamics of the random energy model (REM) ruled by a single spin-flip Metropolis dynamics. We focus on the dynamical evolution taking place on time-scales diverging with the system size. Our aim is to show to what extent the activated dynamics displayed by the REM can be described in terms of an effective trap model. We identify two time regimes: the first one corresponds to the process of escaping from a basin in the energy landscape and to the subsequent exploration of high energy configurations, whereas the second one corresponds to the evolution from a deep basin to the other. By combining numerical simulations with analytical arguments we show why the trap model description does not hold in the former but becomes exact in the second.
Growth and renewable energy in Europe: A random effect model with evidence for neutrality hypothesis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Menegaki, Angeliki N.
2011-01-01
This is an empirical study on the causal relationship between economic growth and renewable energy for 27 European countries in a multivariate panel framework over the period 1997-2007 using a random effect model and including final energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions and employment as additional independent variables in the model. Empirical results do not confirm causality between renewable energy consumption and GDP, although panel causality tests unfold short-run relationships between renewable energy and greenhouse gas emissions and employment. The estimated cointegration factor refrains from unity, indicating only a weak, if any, relationship between economic growth and renewable energy consumption in Europe, suggesting evidence of the neutrality hypothesis, which can partly be explained by the uneven and insufficient exploitation of renewable energy sources across Europe.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fyodorov, Yan V; Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe
2008-01-01
We investigate some implications of the freezing scenario proposed by Carpentier and Le Doussal (CLD) for a random energy model (REM) with logarithmically correlated random potential. We introduce a particular (circular) variant of the model, and show that the integer moments of the partition function in the high-temperature phase are given by the well-known Dyson Coulomb gas integrals. The CLD freezing scenario allows one to use those moments for extracting the distribution of the free energy in both high- and low-temperature phases. In particular, it yields the full distribution of the minimal value in the potential sequence. This provides an explicit new class of extreme-value statistics for strongly correlated variables, manifestly different from the standard Gumbel class. (fast track communication)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Fyodorov, Yan V [School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Nottingham, Nottingham NG72RD (United Kingdom); Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe [Science and Finance, Capital Fund Management 6-8 Bd Haussmann, 75009 Paris (France)
2008-09-19
We investigate some implications of the freezing scenario proposed by Carpentier and Le Doussal (CLD) for a random energy model (REM) with logarithmically correlated random potential. We introduce a particular (circular) variant of the model, and show that the integer moments of the partition function in the high-temperature phase are given by the well-known Dyson Coulomb gas integrals. The CLD freezing scenario allows one to use those moments for extracting the distribution of the free energy in both high- and low-temperature phases. In particular, it yields the full distribution of the minimal value in the potential sequence. This provides an explicit new class of extreme-value statistics for strongly correlated variables, manifestly different from the standard Gumbel class. (fast track communication)
Derrida's Generalized Random Energy models; 4, Continuous state branching and coalescents
Bovier, A
2003-01-01
In this paper we conclude our analysis of Derrida's Generalized Random Energy Models (GREM) by identifying the thermodynamic limit with a one-parameter family of probability measures related to a continuous state branching process introduced by Neveu. Using a construction introduced by Bertoin and Le Gall in terms of a coherent family of subordinators related to Neveu's branching process, we show how the Gibbs geometry of the limiting Gibbs measure is given in terms of the genealogy of this process via a deterministic time-change. This construction is fully universal in that all different models (characterized by the covariance of the underlying Gaussian process) differ only through that time change, which in turn is expressed in terms of Parisi's overlap distribution. The proof uses strongly the Ghirlanda-Guerra identities that impose the structure of Neveu's process as the only possible asymptotic random mechanism.
Linearization effect in multifractal analysis: Insights from the Random Energy Model
Angeletti, Florian; Mézard, Marc; Bertin, Eric; Abry, Patrice
2011-08-01
The analysis of the linearization effect in multifractal analysis, and hence of the estimation of moments for multifractal processes, is revisited borrowing concepts from the statistical physics of disordered systems, notably from the analysis of the so-called Random Energy Model. Considering a standard multifractal process (compound Poisson motion), chosen as a simple representative example, we show the following: (i) the existence of a critical order q∗ beyond which moments, though finite, cannot be estimated through empirical averages, irrespective of the sample size of the observation; (ii) multifractal exponents necessarily behave linearly in q, for q>q∗. Tailoring the analysis conducted for the Random Energy Model to that of Compound Poisson motion, we provide explicative and quantitative predictions for the values of q∗ and for the slope controlling the linear behavior of the multifractal exponents. These quantities are shown to be related only to the definition of the multifractal process and not to depend on the sample size of the observation. Monte Carlo simulations, conducted over a large number of large sample size realizations of compound Poisson motion, comfort and extend these analyses.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Murata, Isao [Osaka Univ., Suita (Japan); Mori, Takamasa; Nakagawa, Masayuki; Itakura, Hirofumi
1996-03-01
The method to calculate neutronics parameters of a core composed of randomly distributed spherical fuels has been developed based on a statistical geometry model with a continuous energy Monte Carlo method. This method was implemented in a general purpose Monte Carlo code MCNP, and a new code MCNP-CFP had been developed. This paper describes the model and method how to use it and the validation results. In the Monte Carlo calculation, the location of a spherical fuel is sampled probabilistically along the particle flight path from the spatial probability distribution of spherical fuels, called nearest neighbor distribution (NND). This sampling method was validated through the following two comparisons: (1) Calculations of inventory of coated fuel particles (CFPs) in a fuel compact by both track length estimator and direct evaluation method, and (2) Criticality calculations for ordered packed geometries. This method was also confined by applying to an analysis of the critical assembly experiment at VHTRC. The method established in the present study is quite unique so as to a probabilistic model of the geometry with a great number of spherical fuels distributed randomly. Realizing the speed-up by vector or parallel computations in future, it is expected to be widely used in calculation of a nuclear reactor core, especially HTGR cores. (author).
Adame, J.; Warzel, S.
2015-11-01
In this note, we use ideas of Farhi et al. [Int. J. Quantum. Inf. 6, 503 (2008) and Quantum Inf. Comput. 11, 840 (2011)] who link a lower bound on the run time of their quantum adiabatic search algorithm to an upper bound on the energy gap above the ground-state of the generators of this algorithm. We apply these ideas to the quantum random energy model (QREM). Our main result is a simple proof of the conjectured exponential vanishing of the energy gap of the QREM.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Adame, J.; Warzel, S.
2015-01-01
In this note, we use ideas of Farhi et al. [Int. J. Quantum. Inf. 6, 503 (2008) and Quantum Inf. Comput. 11, 840 (2011)] who link a lower bound on the run time of their quantum adiabatic search algorithm to an upper bound on the energy gap above the ground-state of the generators of this algorithm. We apply these ideas to the quantum random energy model (QREM). Our main result is a simple proof of the conjectured exponential vanishing of the energy gap of the QREM
Ponomarev, A. L.; Brenner, D.; Hlatky, L. R.; Sachs, R. K.
2000-01-01
DNA double-strand breaks (DSBs) produced by densely ionizing radiation are not located randomly in the genome: recent data indicate DSB clustering along chromosomes. Stochastic DSB clustering at large scales, from > 100 Mbp down to simulations and analytic equations. A random-walk, coarse-grained polymer model for chromatin is combined with a simple track structure model in Monte Carlo software called DNAbreak and is applied to data on alpha-particle irradiation of V-79 cells. The chromatin model neglects molecular details but systematically incorporates an increase in average spatial separation between two DNA loci as the number of base-pairs between the loci increases. Fragment-size distributions obtained using DNAbreak match data on large fragments about as well as distributions previously obtained with a less mechanistic approach. Dose-response relations, linear at small doses of high linear energy transfer (LET) radiation, are obtained. They are found to be non-linear when the dose becomes so large that there is a significant probability of overlapping or close juxtaposition, along one chromosome, for different DSB clusters from different tracks. The non-linearity is more evident for large fragments than for small. The DNAbreak results furnish an example of the RLC (randomly located clusters) analytic formalism, which generalizes the broken-stick fragment-size distribution of the random-breakage model that is often applied to low-LET data.
Energy models characterize the energy system, its evolution, and its interactions with the broader economy. The energy system consists of primary resources, including both fossil fuels and renewables; power plants, refineries, and other technologies to process and convert these r...
Cao, Xiangyu; Fyodorov, Yan V.; Le Doussal, Pierre
2018-02-01
We address systematically an apparent nonphysical behavior of the free-energy moment generating function for several instances of the logarithmically correlated models: the fractional Brownian motion with Hurst index H =0 (fBm0) (and its bridge version), a one-dimensional model appearing in decaying Burgers turbulence with log-correlated initial conditions and, finally, the two-dimensional log-correlated random-energy model (logREM) introduced in Cao et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 118, 090601 (2017), 10.1103/PhysRevLett.118.090601] based on the two-dimensional Gaussian free field with background charges and directly related to the Liouville field theory. All these models share anomalously large fluctuations of the associated free energy, with a variance proportional to the log of the system size. We argue that a seemingly nonphysical vanishing of the moment generating function for some values of parameters is related to the termination point transition (i.e., prefreezing). We study the associated universal log corrections in the frozen phase, both for logREMs and for the standard REM, filling a gap in the literature. For the above mentioned integrable instances of logREMs, we predict the nontrivial free-energy cumulants describing non-Gaussian fluctuations on the top of the Gaussian with extensive variance. Some of the predictions are tested numerically.
Cao, Xiangyu; Le Doussal, Pierre; Rosso, Alberto; Santachiara, Raoul
2018-04-01
We study transitions in log-correlated random energy models (logREMs) that are related to the violation of a Seiberg bound in Liouville field theory (LFT): the binding transition and the termination point transition (a.k.a., pre-freezing). By means of LFT-logREM mapping, replica symmetry breaking and traveling-wave equation techniques, we unify both transitions in a two-parameter diagram, which describes the free-energy large deviations of logREMs with a deterministic background log potential, or equivalently, the joint moments of the free energy and Gibbs measure in logREMs without background potential. Under the LFT-logREM mapping, the transitions correspond to the competition of discrete and continuous terms in a four-point correlation function. Our results provide a statistical interpretation of a peculiar nonlocality of the operator product expansion in LFT. The results are rederived by a traveling-wave equation calculation, which shows that the features of LFT responsible for the transitions are reproduced in a simple model of diffusion with absorption. We examine also the problem by a replica symmetry breaking analysis. It complements the previous methods and reveals a rich large deviation structure of the free energy of logREMs with a deterministic background log potential. Many results are verified in the integrable circular logREM, by a replica-Coulomb gas integral approach. The related problem of common length (overlap) distribution is also considered. We provide a traveling-wave equation derivation of the LFT predictions announced in a precedent work.
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Osburn, L
2010-01-01
Full Text Available The construction industry has turned to energy modelling in order to assist them in reducing the amount of energy consumed by buildings. However, while the energy loads of buildings can be accurately modelled, energy models often under...
Piezoelectric energy harvesting from broadband random vibrations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Adhikari, S; Friswell, M I; Inman, D J
2009-01-01
Energy harvesting for the purpose of powering low power electronic sensor systems has received explosive attention in the last few years. Most works using deterministic approaches focusing on using the piezoelectric effect to harvest ambient vibration energy have concentrated on cantilever beams at resonance using harmonic excitation. Here, using a stochastic approach, we focus on using a stack configuration and harvesting broadband vibration energy, a more practically available ambient source. It is assumed that the ambient base excitation is stationary Gaussian white noise, which has a constant power-spectral density across the frequency range considered. The mean power acquired from a piezoelectric vibration-based energy harvester subjected to random base excitation is derived using the theory of random vibrations. Two cases, namely the harvesting circuit with and without an inductor, have been considered. Exact closed-form expressions involving non-dimensional parameters of the electromechanical system have been given and illustrated using numerical examples
Piezoelectric energy harvesting from broadband random vibrations
Adhikari, S.; Friswell, M. I.; Inman, D. J.
2009-11-01
Energy harvesting for the purpose of powering low power electronic sensor systems has received explosive attention in the last few years. Most works using deterministic approaches focusing on using the piezoelectric effect to harvest ambient vibration energy have concentrated on cantilever beams at resonance using harmonic excitation. Here, using a stochastic approach, we focus on using a stack configuration and harvesting broadband vibration energy, a more practically available ambient source. It is assumed that the ambient base excitation is stationary Gaussian white noise, which has a constant power-spectral density across the frequency range considered. The mean power acquired from a piezoelectric vibration-based energy harvester subjected to random base excitation is derived using the theory of random vibrations. Two cases, namely the harvesting circuit with and without an inductor, have been considered. Exact closed-form expressions involving non-dimensional parameters of the electromechanical system have been given and illustrated using numerical examples.
Alternative model of random surfaces
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ambartzumian, R.V.; Sukiasian, G.S.; Savvidy, G.K.; Savvidy, K.G.
1992-01-01
We analyse models of triangulated random surfaces and demand that geometrically nearby configurations of these surfaces must have close actions. The inclusion of this principle drives us to suggest a new action, which is a modified Steiner functional. General arguments, based on the Minkowski inequality, shows that the maximal distribution to the partition function comes from surfaces close to the sphere. (orig.)
Randomized Item Response Theory Models
Fox, Gerardus J.A.
2005-01-01
The randomized response (RR) technique is often used to obtain answers on sensitive questions. A new method is developed to measure latent variables using the RR technique because direct questioning leads to biased results. Within the RR technique is the probability of the true response modeled by
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Iudice, N.L.
1993-01-01
It is shown by a model independent numerical estimate that the TRM expression of the M1 strength is fully consistent with the recently discovered saturation properties of the M1 excitations knows as scissors mode
Random Intercept and Random Slope 2-Level Multilevel Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rehan Ahmad Khan
2012-11-01
Full Text Available Random intercept model and random intercept & random slope model carrying two-levels of hierarchy in the population are presented and compared with the traditional regression approach. The impact of students’ satisfaction on their grade point average (GPA was explored with and without controlling teachers influence. The variation at level-1 can be controlled by introducing the higher levels of hierarchy in the model. The fanny movement of the fitted lines proves variation of student grades around teachers.
Smooth random change point models.
van den Hout, Ardo; Muniz-Terrera, Graciela; Matthews, Fiona E
2011-03-15
Change point models are used to describe processes over time that show a change in direction. An example of such a process is cognitive ability, where a decline a few years before death is sometimes observed. A broken-stick model consists of two linear parts and a breakpoint where the two lines intersect. Alternatively, models can be formulated that imply a smooth change between the two linear parts. Change point models can be extended by adding random effects to account for variability between subjects. A new smooth change point model is introduced and examples are presented that show how change point models can be estimated using functions in R for mixed-effects models. The Bayesian inference using WinBUGS is also discussed. The methods are illustrated using data from a population-based longitudinal study of ageing, the Cambridge City over 75 Cohort Study. The aim is to identify how many years before death individuals experience a change in the rate of decline of their cognitive ability. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Di Cosmo, Valeri; Hyland, Marie
2012-01-01
PUBLISHED In Ireland, the energy sector has undergone significant change in the last forty years. In this period, there has been a significant increase in the demand for energy. This increase has been driven by economic and demographic factors. Although the current deep recession has quelled the upward trend in the demand for energy, a future economic recovery will bring these issues back into focus. This paper documents a model of the Irish energy sector which relates energy demand to re...
A cluster expansion approach to exponential random graph models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yin, Mei
2012-01-01
The exponential family of random graphs are among the most widely studied network models. We show that any exponential random graph model may alternatively be viewed as a lattice gas model with a finite Banach space norm. The system may then be treated using cluster expansion methods from statistical mechanics. In particular, we derive a convergent power series expansion for the limiting free energy in the case of small parameters. Since the free energy is the generating function for the expectations of other random variables, this characterizes the structure and behavior of the limiting network in this parameter region
1981-05-01
A summary of the energy situation in Brazil is presented. Energy consumption rates, reserves of primary energy, and the basic needs and strategies for meeting energy self sufficiency are discussed. Conserving energy, increasing petroleum production, and utilizing other domestic energy products and petroleum by-products are discussed. Specific programs are described for the development and use of alcohol fuels, wood and charcoal, coal, schist, solar and geothermal energy, power from the sea, fresh biomass, special batteries, hydrogen, vegetable oil, and electric energy from water power, nuclear, and coal. Details of the energy model for 1985 are given. Attention is also given to the energy demands and the structure of global energy from 1975 to 1985.
Generalization of Random Intercept Multilevel Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rehan Ahmad Khan
2013-10-01
Full Text Available The concept of random intercept models in a multilevel model developed by Goldstein (1986 has been extended for k-levels. The random variation in intercepts at individual level is marginally split into components by incorporating higher levels of hierarchy in the single level model. So, one can control the random variation in intercepts by incorporating the higher levels in the model.
Infinite Random Graphs as Statistical Mechanical Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Durhuus, Bergfinnur Jøgvan; Napolitano, George Maria
2011-01-01
We discuss two examples of infinite random graphs obtained as limits of finite statistical mechanical systems: a model of two-dimensional dis-cretized quantum gravity defined in terms of causal triangulated surfaces, and the Ising model on generic random trees. For the former model we describe a ...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Murata, Isao; Miyamaru, Hiroyuki
2008-01-01
Spherical elements have remarkable features in various applications in the nuclear engineering field. In 1990's, by the project of HTR-PROTEUS at PSI various pebble bed reactor experiments were conducted including cores with a lot of spherical fuel elements loaded randomly. In this study, criticality experiments of the random-loading HTR-PROTEUS cores were analyzed by MCNP-BALL, which could deal with a random arrangement of spherical fuel elements exactly with a statistical geometry model. As a result of analysis, the calculated effective multiplication factors were in fairly good agreement with the measurements within about 0.5%Δk/k. In comparison with other numerical analysis, our effective multiplication factors were between the experimental values and the VSOP calculations. To investigate the discrepancy of the effective multiplication factors between the experiments and calculations, sensitivity analyses were performed. As the result, the sensitivity of impurity boron concentration was fairly large. The reason of the present slight overestimation was not made clear at present. However, the presently existing difference was thought to be related to the impurity boron concentration, not to the modelling of the reactor and the used nuclear data. From the present study, it was confirmed that MCNP-BALL would have an advantage to conventional transport codes by comparing with their numerical results and the experimental values. As for the criticality experiment of PROTEUS, we would conclude that the two cores of Core 4.2 and 4.3 could be regarded as an equivalent experiment of a reference critical core, which was packed in the packing fraction of RLP. (authors)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Murata, Isao; Miyamaru, Hiroyuki [Division of Electrical, Electronic and Information Engineering, Osaka University, Yamada-oka 2-1, Suita, Osaka, 565-0871 (Japan)
2008-07-01
Spherical elements have remarkable features in various applications in the nuclear engineering field. In 1990's, by the project of HTR-PROTEUS at PSI various pebble bed reactor experiments were conducted including cores with a lot of spherical fuel elements loaded randomly. In this study, criticality experiments of the random-loading HTR-PROTEUS cores were analyzed by MCNP-BALL, which could deal with a random arrangement of spherical fuel elements exactly with a statistical geometry model. As a result of analysis, the calculated effective multiplication factors were in fairly good agreement with the measurements within about 0.5%DELTAk/k. In comparison with other numerical analysis, our effective multiplication factors were between the experimental values and the VSOP calculations. To investigate the discrepancy of the effective multiplication factors between the experiments and calculations, sensitivity analyses were performed. As the result, the sensitivity of impurity boron concentration was fairly large. The reason of the present slight overestimation was not made clear at present. However, the presently existing difference was thought to be related to the impurity boron concentration, not to the modelling of the reactor and the used nuclear data. From the present study, it was confirmed that MCNP-BALL would have an advantage to conventional transport codes by comparing with their numerical results and the experimental values. As for the criticality experiment of PROTEUS, we would conclude that the two cores of Core 4.2 and 4.3 could be regarded as an equivalent experiment of a reference critical core, which was packed in the packing fraction of RLP. (authors)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Pasonen, R.
2011-09-15
A simulation model of Energy centre microgrid made with PSCAD simulation software version 4.2.1 has been built in SGEM Smart Grids and Energy Markets (SGEM) work package 6.6. Microgrid is an autonomous electric power system which can operate separate from common distribution system. The idea of energy centre microgrid concept was considered in Master of Science thesis 'Community Microgrid - A Building block of Finnish Smart Grid'. The name of energy centre microgrid comes from a fact that production and storage units are concentrated into a single location, an energy centre. This centre feeds the loads which can be households or industrial loads. Power direction flow on the demand side remains same compared to the current distribution system and allows to the use of standard fuse protection in the system. The model consists of photovoltaic solar array, battery unit, variable frequency boost converter, inverter, isolation transformer and demand side (load) model. The model is capable to automatically switch to islanded mode when there is a fault in outside grid and back to parallel operation mode when fault is removed. The modelled system responses well to load changes and total harmonic distortion related to 50Hz base frequency is kept under 1.5% while operating and feeding passive load. (orig.)
Random defect lines in conformal minimal models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jeng, M.; Ludwig, A.W.W.
2001-01-01
We analyze the effect of adding quenched disorder along a defect line in the 2D conformal minimal models using replicas. The disorder is realized by a random applied magnetic field in the Ising model, by fluctuations in the ferromagnetic bond coupling in the tricritical Ising model and tricritical three-state Potts model (the phi 12 operator), etc. We find that for the Ising model, the defect renormalizes to two decoupled half-planes without disorder, but that for all other models, the defect renormalizes to a disorder-dominated fixed point. Its critical properties are studied with an expansion in ε∝1/m for the mth Virasoro minimal model. The decay exponents X N =((N)/(2))1-((9(3N-4))/(4(m+1) 2 ))+O((3)/(m+1)) 3 of the Nth moment of the two-point function of phi 12 along the defect are obtained to 2-loop order, exhibiting multifractal behavior. This leads to a typical decay exponent X typ =((1)/(2))1+((9)/((m+1) 2 ))+O((3)/(m+1)) 3 . One-point functions are seen to have a non-self-averaging amplitude. The boundary entropy is larger than that of the pure system by order 1/m 3 . As a byproduct of our calculations, we also obtain to 2-loop order the exponent X-tilde N =N1-((2)/(9π 2 ))(3N-4)(q-2) 2 +O(q-2) 3 of the Nth moment of the energy operator in the q-state Potts model with bulk bond disorder
Random matrix model for disordered conductors
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
In the interpretation of transport properties of mesoscopic systems, the multichannel ... One defines the random matrix model with N eigenvalues 0. λТ ..... With heuristic arguments, using the ideas pertaining to Dyson Coulomb gas analogy,.
The random walk model of intrafraction movement
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ballhausen, H; Reiner, M; Kantz, S; Belka, C; Söhn, M
2013-01-01
The purpose of this paper is to understand intrafraction movement as a stochastic process driven by random external forces. The hypothetically proposed three-dimensional random walk model has significant impact on optimal PTV margins and offers a quantitatively correct explanation of experimental findings. Properties of the random walk are calculated from first principles, in particular fraction-average population density distributions for displacements along the principal axes. When substituted into the established optimal margin recipes these fraction-average distributions yield safety margins about 30% smaller as compared to the suggested values from end-of-fraction Gaussian fits. Stylized facts of a random walk are identified in clinical data, such as the increase of the standard deviation of displacements with the square root of time. Least squares errors in the comparison to experimental results are reduced by about 50% when accounting for non-Gaussian corrections from the random walk model. (paper)
The random walk model of intrafraction movement.
Ballhausen, H; Reiner, M; Kantz, S; Belka, C; Söhn, M
2013-04-07
The purpose of this paper is to understand intrafraction movement as a stochastic process driven by random external forces. The hypothetically proposed three-dimensional random walk model has significant impact on optimal PTV margins and offers a quantitatively correct explanation of experimental findings. Properties of the random walk are calculated from first principles, in particular fraction-average population density distributions for displacements along the principal axes. When substituted into the established optimal margin recipes these fraction-average distributions yield safety margins about 30% smaller as compared to the suggested values from end-of-fraction gaussian fits. Stylized facts of a random walk are identified in clinical data, such as the increase of the standard deviation of displacements with the square root of time. Least squares errors in the comparison to experimental results are reduced by about 50% when accounting for non-gaussian corrections from the random walk model.
Entropy Characterization of Random Network Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Pedro J. Zufiria
2017-06-01
Full Text Available This paper elaborates on the Random Network Model (RNM as a mathematical framework for modelling and analyzing the generation of complex networks. Such framework allows the analysis of the relationship between several network characterizing features (link density, clustering coefficient, degree distribution, connectivity, etc. and entropy-based complexity measures, providing new insight on the generation and characterization of random networks. Some theoretical and computational results illustrate the utility of the proposed framework.
Lamplighter model of a random copolymer adsorption on a line
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
L.I. Nazarov
2014-09-01
Full Text Available We present a model of an AB-diblock random copolymer sequential self-packaging with local quenched interactions on a one-dimensional infinite sticky substrate. It is assumed that the A-A and B-B contacts are favorable, while A-B are not. The position of a newly added monomer is selected in view of the local contact energy minimization. The model demonstrates a self-organization behavior with the nontrivial dependence of the total energy, E (the number of unfavorable contacts, on the number of chain monomers, N: E ~ N^3/4 for quenched random equally probable distribution of A- and B-monomers along the chain. The model is treated by mapping it onto the "lamplighter" random walk and the diffusion-controlled chemical reaction of X+X → 0 type with the subdiffusive motion of reagents.
A Generalized Random Regret Minimization Model
Chorus, C.G.
2013-01-01
This paper presents, discusses and tests a generalized Random Regret Minimization (G-RRM) model. The G-RRM model is created by replacing a fixed constant in the attribute-specific regret functions of the RRM model, by a regret-weight variable. Depending on the value of the regret-weights, the G-RRM
Computer simulations of the random barrier model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Schrøder, Thomas; Dyre, Jeppe
2002-01-01
A brief review of experimental facts regarding ac electronic and ionic conduction in disordered solids is given followed by a discussion of what is perhaps the simplest realistic model, the random barrier model (symmetric hopping model). Results from large scale computer simulations are presented...
Pervasive randomness in physics: an introduction to its modelling and spectral characterisation
Howard, Roy
2017-10-01
An introduction to the modelling and spectral characterisation of random phenomena is detailed at a level consistent with a first exposure to the subject at an undergraduate level. A signal framework for defining a random process is provided and this underpins an introduction to common random processes including the Poisson point process, the random walk, the random telegraph signal, shot noise, information signalling random processes, jittered pulse trains, birth-death random processes and Markov chains. An introduction to the spectral characterisation of signals and random processes, via either an energy spectral density or a power spectral density, is detailed. The important case of defining a white noise random process concludes the paper.
RMBNToolbox: random models for biochemical networks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Niemi Jari
2007-05-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background There is an increasing interest to model biochemical and cell biological networks, as well as to the computational analysis of these models. The development of analysis methodologies and related software is rapid in the field. However, the number of available models is still relatively small and the model sizes remain limited. The lack of kinetic information is usually the limiting factor for the construction of detailed simulation models. Results We present a computational toolbox for generating random biochemical network models which mimic real biochemical networks. The toolbox is called Random Models for Biochemical Networks. The toolbox works in the Matlab environment, and it makes it possible to generate various network structures, stoichiometries, kinetic laws for reactions, and parameters therein. The generation can be based on statistical rules and distributions, and more detailed information of real biochemical networks can be used in situations where it is known. The toolbox can be easily extended. The resulting network models can be exported in the format of Systems Biology Markup Language. Conclusion While more information is accumulating on biochemical networks, random networks can be used as an intermediate step towards their better understanding. Random networks make it possible to study the effects of various network characteristics to the overall behavior of the network. Moreover, the construction of artificial network models provides the ground truth data needed in the validation of various computational methods in the fields of parameter estimation and data analysis.
Dynamics of the Random Field Ising Model
Xu, Jian
The Random Field Ising Model (RFIM) is a general tool to study disordered systems. Crackling noise is generated when disordered systems are driven by external forces, spanning a broad range of sizes. Systems with different microscopic structures such as disordered mag- nets and Earth's crust have been studied under the RFIM. In this thesis, we investigated the domain dynamics and critical behavior in two dipole-coupled Ising ferromagnets Nd2Fe14B and LiHoxY 1-xF4. With Tc well above room temperature, Nd2Fe14B has shown reversible disorder when exposed to an external transverse field and crosses between two universality classes in the strong and weak disorder limits. Besides tunable disorder, LiHoxY1-xF4 has shown quantum tunneling effects arising from quantum fluctuations, providing another mechanism for domain reversal. Universality within and beyond power law dependence on avalanche size and energy were studied in LiHo0.65Y0.35 F4.
A Structural Modeling Approach to a Multilevel Random Coefficients Model.
Rovine, Michael J.; Molenaar, Peter C. M.
2000-01-01
Presents a method for estimating the random coefficients model using covariance structure modeling and allowing one to estimate both fixed and random effects. The method is applied to real and simulated data, including marriage data from J. Belsky and M. Rovine (1990). (SLD)
National Energy Outlook Modelling System
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Volkers, C.M. [ECN Policy Studies, Petten (Netherlands)
2013-12-15
For over 20 years, the Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN) has been developing the National Energy Outlook Modelling System (NEOMS) for Energy projections and policy evaluations. NEOMS enables 12 energy models of ECN to exchange data and produce consistent and detailed results.
Free energy distribution function of a random Ising ferromagnet
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dotsenko, Victor; Klumov, Boris
2012-01-01
We study the free energy distribution function of a weakly disordered Ising ferromagnet in terms of the D-dimensional random temperature Ginzburg–Landau Hamiltonian. It is shown that besides the usual Gaussian 'body' this distribution function exhibits non-Gaussian tails both in the paramagnetic and in the ferromagnetic phases. Explicit asymptotic expressions for these tails are derived. It is demonstrated that the tails are strongly asymmetric: the left tail (for large negative values of the free energy) is much slower than the right one (for large positive values of the free energy). It is argued that at the critical point the free energy of the random Ising ferromagnet in dimensions D < 4 is described by a non-trivial universal distribution function which is non-self-averaging
Random effect selection in generalised linear models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Denwood, Matt; Houe, Hans; Forkman, Björn
We analysed abattoir recordings of meat inspection codes with possible relevance to onfarm animal welfare in cattle. Random effects logistic regression models were used to describe individual-level data obtained from 461,406 cattle slaughtered in Denmark. Our results demonstrate that the largest...
Energy models: methods and trends
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Reuter, A [Division of Energy Management and Planning, Verbundplan, Klagenfurt (Austria); Kuehner, R [IER Institute for Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy, University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart (Germany); Wohlgemuth, N [Department of Economy, University of Klagenfurt, Klagenfurt (Austria)
1997-12-31
Energy environmental and economical systems do not allow for experimentation since this would be dangerous, too expensive or even impossible. Instead, mathematical models are applied for energy planning. Experimenting is replaced by varying the structure and some parameters of `energy models`, computing the values of depending parameters, comparing variations, and interpreting their outcomings. Energy models are as old as computers. In this article the major new developments in energy modeling will be pointed out. We distinguish between 3 reasons of new developments: progress in computer technology, methodological progress and novel tasks of energy system analysis and planning. 2 figs., 19 refs.
Energy models: methods and trends
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Reuter, A.; Kuehner, R.; Wohlgemuth, N.
1996-01-01
Energy environmental and economical systems do not allow for experimentation since this would be dangerous, too expensive or even impossible. Instead, mathematical models are applied for energy planning. Experimenting is replaced by varying the structure and some parameters of 'energy models', computing the values of depending parameters, comparing variations, and interpreting their outcomings. Energy models are as old as computers. In this article the major new developments in energy modeling will be pointed out. We distinguish between 3 reasons of new developments: progress in computer technology, methodological progress and novel tasks of energy system analysis and planning
Energy conservation law for randomly fluctuating electromagnetic fields
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gbur, G.; Wolf, E.; James, D.
1999-01-01
An energy conservation law is derived for electromagnetic fields generated by any random, statistically stationary, source distribution. It is shown to provide insight into the phenomenon of correlation-induced spectral changes. The results are illustrated by an example. copyright 1999 The American Physical Society
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cryns, Jackson W.; Hatchell, Brian K.; Santiago-Rojas, Emiliano; Silvers, Kurt L.
2013-07-01
Formal journal article Experimental analysis of a piezoelectric energy harvesting system for harmonic, random, and sine on random vibration Abstract: Harvesting power with a piezoelectric vibration powered generator using a full-wave rectifier conditioning circuit is experimentally compared for varying sinusoidal, random and sine on random (SOR) input vibration scenarios. Additionally, the implications of source vibration characteristics on harvester design are discussed. Studies in vibration harvesting have yielded numerous alternatives for harvesting electrical energy from vibrations but piezoceramics arose as the most compact, energy dense means of energy transduction. The rise in popularity of harvesting energy from ambient vibrations has made piezoelectric generators commercially available. Much of the available literature focuses on maximizing harvested power through nonlinear processing circuits that require accurate knowledge of generator internal mechanical and electrical characteristics and idealization of the input vibration source, which cannot be assumed in general application. In this manuscript, variations in source vibration and load resistance are explored for a commercially available piezoelectric generator. We characterize the source vibration by its acceleration response for repeatability and transcription to general application. The results agree with numerical and theoretical predictions for in previous literature that load optimal resistance varies with transducer natural frequency and source type, and the findings demonstrate that significant gains are seen with lower tuned transducer natural frequencies for similar source amplitudes. Going beyond idealized steady state sinusoidal and simplified random vibration input, SOR testing allows for more accurate representation of real world ambient vibration. It is shown that characteristic interactions from more complex vibrational sources significantly alter power generation and power processing
A random walk model to evaluate autism
Moura, T. R. S.; Fulco, U. L.; Albuquerque, E. L.
2018-02-01
A common test administered during neurological examination in children is the analysis of their social communication and interaction across multiple contexts, including repetitive patterns of behavior. Poor performance may be associated with neurological conditions characterized by impairments in executive function, such as the so-called pervasive developmental disorders (PDDs), a particular condition of the autism spectrum disorders (ASDs). Inspired in these diagnosis tools, mainly those related to repetitive movements and behaviors, we studied here how the diffusion regimes of two discrete-time random walkers, mimicking the lack of social interaction and restricted interests developed for children with PDDs, are affected. Our model, which is based on the so-called elephant random walk (ERW) approach, consider that one of the random walker can learn and imitate the microscopic behavior of the other with probability f (1 - f otherwise). The diffusion regimes, measured by the Hurst exponent (H), is then obtained, whose changes may indicate a different degree of autism.
Random matrix models for phase diagrams
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Vanderheyden, B; Jackson, A D
2011-01-01
We describe a random matrix approach that can provide generic and readily soluble mean-field descriptions of the phase diagram for a variety of systems ranging from quantum chromodynamics to high-T c materials. Instead of working from specific models, phase diagrams are constructed by averaging over the ensemble of theories that possesses the relevant symmetries of the problem. Although approximate in nature, this approach has a number of advantages. First, it can be useful in distinguishing generic features from model-dependent details. Second, it can help in understanding the 'minimal' number of symmetry constraints required to reproduce specific phase structures. Third, the robustness of predictions can be checked with respect to variations in the detailed description of the interactions. Finally, near critical points, random matrix models bear strong similarities to Ginsburg-Landau theories with the advantage of additional constraints inherited from the symmetries of the underlying interaction. These constraints can be helpful in ruling out certain topologies in the phase diagram. In this Key Issues Review, we illustrate the basic structure of random matrix models, discuss their strengths and weaknesses, and consider the kinds of system to which they can be applied.
Italian energy scenarios: Markal model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gracceva, Francesco
2005-01-01
Energy scenarios carried out through formal models comply with scientific criteria such as internal coherence and transparency. Besides, Markal methodology allows a good understanding of the complex nature of the energy system. The business-as-usual scenario carried out through the Markal-Italy model shows that structural changes occurring in end-use sectors will continue to drive up energy consumption, in spite of the slow economic growth and the quite high energy prices [it
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Voss, A.
1976-01-01
The development and application of energy models as helping factors in planning and decision making has gained more importance in all regions of energy economy and energy policy in recent times. This development not only covered models for the single branches and companies like, for example, for improving power plant systems, but also models showing the whole energy system. These models aim at analizing the possibilities of developing the energy supply with regard to aspects of the entire system, paying special attention to the integration of the energy system into economic and ecological side conditions. The following essay briefly explains the energy models developed for the Federal Republic of Germany after analizing the set of problems of energy and the demands on the energy planning methods arising from them. The energy model system developed by the programming team 'Systems research and technological development' of the nuclear research plant in Juelich is dealt with very intensively, explaining some model results as examples. Finally, the author gives his opinion on the problem of the integration and conversion of model studies in the process of decision making. (orig.) [de
Random fractal structures in North American energy markets
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Serletis, Apostolos [Calgary Univ., Dept. of Economics, Calgary, AB (Canada); Andreadis, Ioannis [European Univ. of the Hague, Center of Management Studies, The Hague (Netherlands)
2004-05-01
This paper uses daily observations on West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices at Chicago and Henry Hub natural gas prices at LA (over the deregulated period of the 1990s) and various tests from statistics and dynamical systems theory to support a random fractal structure for North American energy markets. In particular, this evidence is supported by the Vassilicos et al. (1993) multifractal structure test and the Ghashghaie et al. [Nature 381 (1996) 767] turbulent behavior test. (Author)
Particle filters for random set models
Ristic, Branko
2013-01-01
“Particle Filters for Random Set Models” presents coverage of state estimation of stochastic dynamic systems from noisy measurements, specifically sequential Bayesian estimation and nonlinear or stochastic filtering. The class of solutions presented in this book is based on the Monte Carlo statistical method. The resulting algorithms, known as particle filters, in the last decade have become one of the essential tools for stochastic filtering, with applications ranging from navigation and autonomous vehicles to bio-informatics and finance. While particle filters have been around for more than a decade, the recent theoretical developments of sequential Bayesian estimation in the framework of random set theory have provided new opportunities which are not widely known and are covered in this book. These recent developments have dramatically widened the scope of applications, from single to multiple appearing/disappearing objects, from precise to imprecise measurements and measurement models. This book...
A random matrix approach to the crossover of energy-level statistics from Wigner to Poisson
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Datta, Nilanjana; Kunz, Herve
2004-01-01
We analyze a class of parametrized random matrix models, introduced by Rosenzweig and Porter, which is expected to describe the energy level statistics of quantum systems whose classical dynamics varies from regular to chaotic as a function of a parameter. We compute the generating function for the correlations of energy levels, in the limit of infinite matrix size. The crossover between Poisson and Wigner statistics is measured by a renormalized coupling constant. The model is exactly solved in the sense that, in the limit of infinite matrix size, the energy-level correlation functions and their generating function are given in terms of a finite set of integrals
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jackson W. Cryns
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Harvesting power with a piezoelectric vibration powered generator using a full-wave rectifier conditioning circuit is experimentally compared for varying sinusoidal, random, and sine on random (SOR input vibration scenarios; the implications of source vibration characteristics on harvester design are discussed. The rise in popularity of harvesting energy from ambient vibrations has made compact, energy dense piezoelectric generators commercially available. Much of the available literature focuses on maximizing harvested power through nonlinear processing circuits that require accurate knowledge of generator internal mechanical and electrical characteristics and idealization of the input vibration source, which cannot be assumed in general application. Variations in source vibration and load resistance are explored for a commercially available piezoelectric generator. The results agree with numerical and theoretical predictions in the previous literature for optimal power harvesting in sinusoidal and flat broadband vibration scenarios. Going beyond idealized steady-state sinusoidal and flat random vibration input, experimental SOR testing allows for more accurate representation of real world ambient vibration. It is shown that characteristic interactions from more complex vibration sources significantly alter power generation and processing requirements by varying harvested power, shifting optimal conditioning impedance, inducing voltage fluctuations, and ultimately rendering idealized sinusoidal and random analyses incorrect.
Energy modelling in sensor networks
Schmidt, D.; Krämer, M.; Kuhn, T.; Wehn, N.
2007-06-01
Wireless sensor networks are one of the key enabling technologies for the vision of ambient intelligence. Energy resources for sensor nodes are very scarce. A key challenge is the design of energy efficient communication protocols. Models of the energy consumption are needed to accurately simulate the efficiency of a protocol or application design, and can also be used for automatic energy optimizations in a model driven design process. We propose a novel methodology to create models for sensor nodes based on few simple measurements. In a case study the methodology was used to create models for MICAz nodes. The models were integrated in a simulation environment as well as in a SDL runtime framework of a model driven design process. Measurements on a test application that was created automatically from an SDL specification showed an 80% reduction in energy consumption compared to an implementation without power saving strategies.
High-temperature series expansions for random Potts models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M.Hellmund
2005-01-01
Full Text Available We discuss recently generated high-temperature series expansions for the free energy and the susceptibility of random-bond q-state Potts models on hypercubic lattices. Using the star-graph expansion technique, quenched disorder averages can be calculated exactly for arbitrary uncorrelated coupling distributions while keeping the disorder strength p as well as the dimension d as symbolic parameters. We present analyses of the new series for the susceptibility of the Ising (q=2 and 4-state Potts model in three dimensions up to the order 19 and 18, respectively, and compare our findings with results from field-theoretical renormalization group studies and Monte Carlo simulations.
New Energy Utility Business Models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Potocnik, V.
2016-01-01
Recently a lot of big changes happened in the power sector: energy efficiency and renewable energy sources are quickly progressing, distributed or decentralised generation of electricity is expanding, climate change requires reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and price volatility and incertitude of fossil fuel supply is common. Those changes have led to obsolescence of vertically integrated business models which have dominated in energy utility organisations for a hundred years and new business models are being introduced. Those models take into account current changes in the power sector and enable a wider application of energy efficiency and renewable energy sources, especially for consumers, with the decentralisation of electricity generation and complying with the requirements of climate and environment preservation. New business models also solve the questions of financial compensations for utilities because of the reduction of centralised energy generation while contributing to local development and employment.(author).
Connectivity ranking of heterogeneous random conductivity models
Rizzo, C. B.; de Barros, F.
2017-12-01
To overcome the challenges associated with hydrogeological data scarcity, the hydraulic conductivity (K) field is often represented by a spatial random process. The state-of-the-art provides several methods to generate 2D or 3D random K-fields, such as the classic multi-Gaussian fields or non-Gaussian fields, training image-based fields and object-based fields. We provide a systematic comparison of these models based on their connectivity. We use the minimum hydraulic resistance as a connectivity measure, which it has been found to be strictly correlated with early time arrival of dissolved contaminants. A computationally efficient graph-based algorithm is employed, allowing a stochastic treatment of the minimum hydraulic resistance through a Monte-Carlo approach and therefore enabling the computation of its uncertainty. The results show the impact of geostatistical parameters on the connectivity for each group of random fields, being able to rank the fields according to their minimum hydraulic resistance.
Modeling superhydrophobic surfaces comprised of random roughness
Samaha, M. A.; Tafreshi, H. Vahedi; Gad-El-Hak, M.
2011-11-01
We model the performance of superhydrophobic surfaces comprised of randomly distributed roughness that resembles natural surfaces, or those produced via random deposition of hydrophobic particles. Such a fabrication method is far less expensive than ordered-microstructured fabrication. The present numerical simulations are aimed at improving our understanding of the drag reduction effect and the stability of the air-water interface in terms of the microstructure parameters. For comparison and validation, we have also simulated the flow over superhydrophobic surfaces made up of aligned or staggered microposts for channel flows as well as streamwise or spanwise ridge configurations for pipe flows. The present results are compared with other theoretical and experimental studies. The numerical simulations indicate that the random distribution of surface roughness has a favorable effect on drag reduction, as long as the gas fraction is kept the same. The stability of the meniscus, however, is strongly influenced by the average spacing between the roughness peaks, which needs to be carefully examined before a surface can be recommended for fabrication. Financial support from DARPA, contract number W91CRB-10-1-0003, is acknowledged.
A random matrix model of relaxation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lebowitz, J L; Pastur, L
2004-01-01
We consider a two-level system, S 2 , coupled to a general n level system, S n , via a random matrix. We derive an integral representation for the mean reduced density matrix ρ(t) of S 2 in the limit n → ∞, and we identify a model of S n which possesses some of the properties expected for macroscopic thermal reservoirs. In particular, it yields the Gibbs form for ρ(∞). We also consider an analog of the van Hove limit and obtain a master equation (Markov dynamics) for the evolution of ρ(t) on an appropriate time scale
Energy modeling: nuclear energy as China's main energy after 2040
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Guo Xingqu
1987-01-01
According to the energy modeling and the strategic forecast of China's economic development and population, the energy demand in China in the coming century has been calculated yearly by computer simulation. It is shown by the calculation results that the primary energy consumption in 2050 will be 3.37-4.25 times as that of 2000. The fossil energy will still be the main energy during the early stage of 21st century, but it will be cut down rapidly since 2020s as its annual consumption is increased to 1.656-2.044 x 10 9 tce/a. Because the fossil fuel ressources in China are limited, more and more fossil fuel will be mainly turned to chemical products, and the environmental pollution will be serious if we still use the fossil as a main fuel widely. The amount of renewable energy will be increasing, but its share in the primary energy consumption will be cut down from 36% to about 20% during the first half of next century and then will maintain this portion. In this case, the nuclear energy will be developed rapidly during the early stage of next century and will become the main energy since 2040. The methodology of energy forecast has also been reviewed
Inflation in random landscapes with two energy scales
Blanco-Pillado, Jose J.; Vilenkin, Alexander; Yamada, Masaki
2018-02-01
We investigate inflation in a multi-dimensional landscape with a hierarchy of energy scales, motivated by the string theory, where the energy scale of Kahler moduli is usually assumed to be much lower than that of complex structure moduli and dilaton field. We argue that in such a landscape, the dynamics of slow-roll inflation is governed by the low-energy potential, while the initial condition for inflation are determined by tunneling through high-energy barriers. We then use the scale factor cutoff measure to calculate the probability distribution for the number of inflationary e-folds and the amplitude of density fluctuations Q, assuming that the low-energy landscape is described by a random Gaussian potential with a correlation length much smaller than M pl. We find that the distribution for Q has a unique shape and a preferred domain, which depends on the parameters of the low-energy landscape. We discuss some observational implications of this distribution and the constraints it imposes on the landscape parameters.
Random versus Deterministic Descent in RNA Energy Landscape Analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Luke Day
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Identifying sets of metastable conformations is a major research topic in RNA energy landscape analysis, and recently several methods have been proposed for finding local minima in landscapes spawned by RNA secondary structures. An important and time-critical component of such methods is steepest, or gradient, descent in attraction basins of local minima. We analyse the speed-up achievable by randomised descent in attraction basins in the context of large sample sets where the size has an order of magnitude in the region of ~106. While the gain for each individual sample might be marginal, the overall run-time improvement can be significant. Moreover, for the two nongradient methods we analysed for partial energy landscapes induced by ten different RNA sequences, we obtained that the number of observed local minima is on average larger by 7.3% and 3.5%, respectively. The run-time improvement is approximately 16.6% and 6.8% on average over the ten partial energy landscapes. For the large sample size we selected for descent procedures, the coverage of local minima is very high up to energy values of the region where the samples were randomly selected from the partial energy landscapes; that is, the difference to the total set of local minima is mainly due to the upper area of the energy landscapes.
Ising model of a randomly triangulated random surface as a definition of fermionic string theory
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bershadsky, M.A.; Migdal, A.A.
1986-01-01
Fermionic degrees of freedom are added to randomly triangulated planar random surfaces. It is shown that the Ising model on a fixed graph is equivalent to a certain Majorana fermion theory on the dual graph. (orig.)
Energy modelling and capacity building
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
2005-01-01
The Planning and Economic Studies Section of the IAEA's Department of Nuclear Energy is focusing on building analytical capacity in MS for energy-environmental-economic assessments and for the elaboration of sustainable energy strategies. It offers a variety of analytical models specifically designed for use in developing countries for (i) evaluating alternative energy strategies; (ii) assessing environmental, economic and financial impacts of energy options; (iii) assessing infrastructure needs; (iv) evaluating regional development possibilities and energy trade; (v) assessing the role of nuclear power in addressing priority issues (climate change, energy security, etc.). These models can be used for analysing energy or electricity systems, and to assess possible implications of different energy, environmental or financial policies that affect the energy sector and energy systems. The models vary in complexity and data requirements, and so can be adapted to the available data, statistics and analytical needs of different countries. These models are constantly updated to reflect changes in the real world and in the concerns that drive energy system choices. They can provide thoughtfully informed choices for policy makers over a broader range of circumstances and interests. For example, they can readily reflect the workings of competitive energy and electricity markets, and cover such topics as external costs. The IAEA further offers training in the use of these models and -just as important- in the interpretation and critical evaluation of results. Training of national teams to develop national competence over the full spectrum of models, is a high priority. The IAEA maintains a broad spectrum of databanks relevant to energy, economic and environmental analysis in MS, and make these data available to analysts in MS for use in their own analytical work. The Reference Technology Data Base (RTDB) and the Reference Data Series (RDS-1) are the major vehicles by which we
Rapid Energy Modeling Workflow Demonstration
2013-10-31
trail at AutodeskVasari.com Considered a lightweight version of Revit for energy modeling and analysis Many capabilities are in process of...Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research 32(1):3-21. DOD (2005) Energy Managers Handbook. Retrieved from www.wbdg.org/ccb/DOD/DOD4/dodemhb.pdf
The random cluster model and a new integration identity
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chen, L C; Wu, F Y
2005-01-01
We evaluate the free energy of the random cluster model at its critical point for 0 -1 (√q/2) is a rational number. As a by-product, our consideration leads to a closed-form evaluation of the integral 1/(4π 2 ) ∫ 0 2π dΘ ∫ 0 2π dΦ ln[A+B+C - AcosΘ - BcosΦ - Ccos(Θ+Φ)] = -ln(2S) + (2/π)[Ti 2 (AS) + Ti 2 (BS) + Ti 2 (CS)], which arises in lattice statistics, where A, B, C ≥ 0 and S=1/√(AB + BC + CA)
Macroeconomic models and energy transition
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Douillard, Pierre; Le Hir, Boris; Epaulard, Anne
2016-02-01
As a new policy for energy transition has just been adopted, several questions emerge about the best way to reduce CO 2 emissions, about policies which enable this reduction, and about their costs and opportunities. This note discusses the contribution macro-economic models may have in this respect, notably in the definition of policies which trigger behaviour changes, and those which support energy transition. The authors first discuss the stakes of the assessment of energy transition, and then describe macro-economic models which can be used for such an assessment, give and comment some results of simulations performed for France by using four of these models (Mesange, Numesis, ThreeME, and Imaclim-R France). The authors finally draw lessons about the way to use these models and to interpret their results within the frame of energy transition
Vacuum energy from noncommutative models
Mignemi, S.; Samsarov, A.
2018-04-01
The vacuum energy is computed for a scalar field in a noncommutative background in several models of noncommutative geometry. One may expect that the noncommutativity introduces a natural cutoff on the ultraviolet divergences of field theory. Our calculations show however that this depends on the particular model considered: in some cases the divergences are suppressed and the vacuum energy is only logarithmically divergent, in other cases they are stronger than in the commutative theory.
Fault-tolerant topology in the wireless sensor networks for energy depletion and random failure
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Liu Bin; Dong Ming-Ru; Yin Rong-Rong; Yin Wen-Xiao
2014-01-01
Nodes in the wireless sensor networks (WSNs) are prone to failure due to energy depletion and poor environment, which could have a negative impact on the normal operation of the network. In order to solve this problem, in this paper, we build a fault-tolerant topology which can effectively tolerate energy depletion and random failure. Firstly, a comprehensive failure model about energy depletion and random failure is established. Then an improved evolution model is presented to generate a fault-tolerant topology, and the degree distribution of the topology can be adjusted. Finally, the relation between the degree distribution and the topological fault tolerance is analyzed, and the optimal value of evolution model parameter is obtained. Then the target fault-tolerant topology which can effectively tolerate energy depletion and random failure is obtained. The performances of the new fault tolerant topology are verified by simulation experiments. The results show that the new fault tolerant topology effectively prolongs the network lifetime and has strong fault tolerance. (general)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Ettefagh
2018-03-01
Full Text Available One of the new methods for powering low-power electronic devices employed in the sea, is using of mechanical energies of sea waves. In this method, piezoelectric material is employed to convert the mechanical energy of sea waves into electrical energy. The advantage of this method is based on not implementing the battery charging system. Although, many studies have been done about energy harvesting from sea waves, energy harvesting with considering random JONWSAP wave theory is not fully studied up to now. The random JONSWAP wave model is a more realistic approximation of sea waves in comparison of Airy wave model. Therefore, in this paper a vertical beam with the piezoelectric patches, which is fixed to the seabed, is considered as energy harvester system. The energy harvesting system is simulated by MATLAB software, and then the vibration response of the beam and consequently the generated power is obtained considering the JONWSAP wave theory. In addition, the reliability of the system and the effect of piezoelectric patches uncertainties on the generated power are studied by statistical method. Furthermore, the failure possibility of harvester based on violation criteria is investigated.
Modeling renewable energy company risk
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sadorsky, Perry
2012-01-01
The renewable energy sector is one of the fastest growing components of the energy industry and along with this increased demand for renewable energy there has been an increase in investing and financing activities. The tradeoff between risk and return in the renewable energy sector is, however, precarious. Renewable energy companies are often among the riskiest types of companies to invest in and for this reason it is necessary to have a good understanding of the risk factors. This paper uses a variable beta model to investigate the determinants of renewable energy company risk. The empirical results show that company sales growth has a negative impact on company risk while oil price increases have a positive impact on company risk. When oil price returns are positive and moderate, increases in sales growth can offset the impact of oil price returns and this leads to lower systematic risk.
Energy-economic policy modeling
Sanstad, Alan H.
2018-01-01
Computational models based on economic principles and methods are powerful tools for understanding and analyzing problems in energy and the environment and for designing policies to address them. Among their other features, some current models of this type incorporate information on sustainable energy technologies and can be used to examine their potential role in addressing the problem of global climate change. The underlying principles and the characteristics of the models are summarized, and examples of this class of model and their applications are presented. Modeling epistemology and related issues are discussed, as well as critiques of the models. The paper concludes with remarks on the evolution of the models and possibilities for their continued development.
Random matrix model of adiabatic quantum computing
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mitchell, David R.; Adami, Christoph; Lue, Waynn; Williams, Colin P.
2005-01-01
We present an analysis of the quantum adiabatic algorithm for solving hard instances of 3-SAT (an NP-complete problem) in terms of random matrix theory (RMT). We determine the global regularity of the spectral fluctuations of the instantaneous Hamiltonians encountered during the interpolation between the starting Hamiltonians and the ones whose ground states encode the solutions to the computational problems of interest. At each interpolation point, we quantify the degree of regularity of the average spectral distribution via its Brody parameter, a measure that distinguishes regular (i.e., Poissonian) from chaotic (i.e., Wigner-type) distributions of normalized nearest-neighbor spacings. We find that for hard problem instances - i.e., those having a critical ratio of clauses to variables - the spectral fluctuations typically become irregular across a contiguous region of the interpolation parameter, while the spectrum is regular for easy instances. Within the hard region, RMT may be applied to obtain a mathematical model of the probability of avoided level crossings and concomitant failure rate of the adiabatic algorithm due to nonadiabatic Landau-Zener-type transitions. Our model predicts that if the interpolation is performed at a uniform rate, the average failure rate of the quantum adiabatic algorithm, when averaged over hard problem instances, scales exponentially with increasing problem size
Simulation of a directed random-walk model: the effect of pseudo-random-number correlations
Shchur, L. N.; Heringa, J. R.; Blöte, H. W. J.
1996-01-01
We investigate the mechanism that leads to systematic deviations in cluster Monte Carlo simulations when correlated pseudo-random numbers are used. We present a simple model, which enables an analysis of the effects due to correlations in several types of pseudo-random-number sequences. This model provides qualitative understanding of the bias mechanism in a class of cluster Monte Carlo algorithms.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gjelsvik, E.; Johnsen, T.; Mysen, H.T.
1992-01-01
Simulation results are given of the consumption of electricity and oil in Denmark, Norway and Sweden based on the demand section of a Nordic energy market model which is in the process of being developed in Oslo under the auspices of the Nordic Council of Ministers. The model incorporates supply, and trade between countries so that it can be analyzed how trading can contribute to goals within energy and environmental policies and to cost effective activities aimed at reducing pollution. The article deals in some detail with the subject of how taxation on carbon dioxide emission can influence pollution abatement and with energy consumption development within individual sectors in individual Northern countries. The model of energy demand is described with emphasis on the individual sectors of industry, transport, service and private households. Simulation results giving the effects of energy consumption and increased taxation on fossil fuels are given. On this background the consequences of the adaption of power plants is discussed and a sketch is given of a Nordic electric power market incorporating trading. (AB) (15 refs.)
Energy-Water Modeling and Analysis | Energy Analysis | NREL
Generation (ReEDS Model Analysis) U.S. Energy Sector Vulnerabilities to Climate Change and Extreme Weather Modeling and Analysis Energy-Water Modeling and Analysis NREL's energy-water modeling and analysis vulnerabilities from various factors, including water. Example Projects Renewable Electricity Futures Study
Energy security, energy modelling and uncertainty
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Markandya, Anil [Basque Centre for Climate Change (Spain); University of Bath (United Kingdom); Pemberton, Malcolm [University College London (United Kingdom)
2010-04-15
The paper develops a framework to analyze energy security in an expected utility framework, where there is a risk of disruption of imported energy. The analysis shows the importance of an energy tax as a tool in maximizing expected utility, and how the level of that tax varies according to the key parameters of the system: risk aversion, probability of disruption, demand elasticity and cost of disruption. (author)
Energy security, energy modelling and uncertainty
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Markandya, Anil; Pemberton, Malcolm
2010-01-01
The paper develops a framework to analyze energy security in an expected utility framework, where there is a risk of disruption of imported energy. The analysis shows the importance of an energy tax as a tool in maximizing expected utility, and how the level of that tax varies according to the key parameters of the system: risk aversion, probability of disruption, demand elasticity and cost of disruption. (author)
Ultraviolet complete dark energy model
Narain, Gaurav; Li, Tianjun
2018-04-01
We consider a local phenomenological model to explain a nonlocal gravity scenario which has been proposed to address dark energy issues. This nonlocal gravity action has been seen to fit the data as well as Λ -CDM and therefore demands a more fundamental local treatment. The induced gravity model coupled with higher-derivative gravity is exploited for this proposal, as this perturbatively renormalizable model has a well-defined ultraviolet (UV) description where ghosts are evaded. We consider a generalized version of this model where we consider two coupled scalar fields and their nonminimal coupling with gravity. In this simple model, one of the scalar field acquires a vacuum expectation value (VEV), thereby inducing a mass for one of the scalar fields and generating Newton's constant. The induced mass however is seen to be always above the running energy scale thereby leading to its decoupling. The residual theory after decoupling becomes a platform for driving the accelerated expansion under certain conditions. Integrating out the residual scalar generates a nonlocal gravity action. The leading term of which is the nonlocal gravity action used to fit the data of dark energy.
The geothermal energy, a model energy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
2004-11-01
This book, largely illustrated by photos maps and schemes, takes stock on the knowledge on the geothermal energy, the low and high energy applications and the evolutions. Examples describe the french context and the channels of heat and electric power production. (A.L.B.)
Huang, N. E.; Tung, C.-C.
1977-01-01
The influence of the directional distribution of wave energy on the dispersion relation is calculated numerically using various directional wave spectrum models. The results indicate that the dispersion relation varies both as a function of the directional energy distribution and the direction of propagation of the wave component under consideration. Furthermore, both the mean deviation and the random scatter from the linear approximation increase as the energy spreading decreases. Limited observational data are compared with the theoretical results. The agreement is favorable.
Energy Model of Neuron Activation.
Romanyshyn, Yuriy; Smerdov, Andriy; Petrytska, Svitlana
2017-02-01
On the basis of the neurophysiological strength-duration (amplitude-duration) curve of neuron activation (which relates the threshold amplitude of a rectangular current pulse of neuron activation to the pulse duration), as well as with the use of activation energy constraint (the threshold curve corresponds to the energy threshold of neuron activation by a rectangular current pulse), an energy model of neuron activation by a single current pulse has been constructed. The constructed model of activation, which determines its spectral properties, is a bandpass filter. Under the condition of minimum-phase feature of the neuron activation model, on the basis of Hilbert transform, the possibilities of phase-frequency response calculation from its amplitude-frequency response have been considered. Approximation to the amplitude-frequency response by the response of the Butterworth filter of the first order, as well as obtaining the pulse response corresponding to this approximation, give us the possibility of analyzing the efficiency of activating current pulses of various shapes, including analysis in accordance with the energy constraint.
A random regret minimization model of travel choice
Chorus, C.G.; Arentze, T.A.; Timmermans, H.J.P.
2008-01-01
Abstract This paper presents an alternative to Random Utility-Maximization models of travel choice. Our Random Regret-Minimization model is rooted in Regret Theory and provides several useful features for travel demand analysis. Firstly, it allows for the possibility that choices between travel
A Note on the Correlated Random Coefficient Model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kolodziejczyk, Christophe
In this note we derive the bias of the OLS estimator for a correlated random coefficient model with one random coefficient, but which is correlated with a binary variable. We provide set-identification to the parameters of interest of the model. We also show how to reduce the bias of the estimator...
Compensatory and non-compensatory multidimensional randomized item response models
Fox, J.P.; Entink, R.K.; Avetisyan, M.
2014-01-01
Randomized response (RR) models are often used for analysing univariate randomized response data and measuring population prevalence of sensitive behaviours. There is much empirical support for the belief that RR methods improve the cooperation of the respondents. Recently, RR models have been
Energy technologies and energy efficiency in economic modelling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik
1998-01-01
This paper discusses different approaches to incorporating energy technologies and technological development in energy-economic models. Technological development is a very important issue in long-term energy demand projections and in environmental analyses. Different assumptions on technological ...... of renewable energy and especially wind power will increase the rate of efficiency improvement. A technologically based model in this case indirectly makes the energy efficiency endogenous in the aggregate energy-economy model....... technological development. This paper examines the effect on aggregate energy efficiency of using technological models to describe a number of specific technologies and of incorporating these models in an economic model. Different effects from the technology representation are illustrated. Vintage effects...... illustrates the dependence of average efficiencies and productivity on capacity utilisation rates. In the long run regulation induced by environmental policies are also very important for the improvement of aggregate energy efficiency in the energy supply sector. A Danish policy to increase the share...
Olekhno, N. A.; Beltukov, Y. M.
2018-05-01
Random impedance networks are widely used as a model to describe plasmon resonances in disordered metal-dielectric and other two-component nanocomposites. In the present work, the spectral properties of resonances in random networks are studied within the framework of the random matrix theory. We have shown that the appropriate ensemble of random matrices for the considered problem is the Jacobi ensemble (the MANOVA ensemble). The obtained analytical expressions for the density of states in such resonant networks show a good agreement with the results of numerical simulations in a wide range of metal filling fractions 0
Droplet localization in the random XXZ model and its manifestations
Elgart, A.; Klein, A.; Stolz, G.
2018-01-01
We examine many-body localization properties for the eigenstates that lie in the droplet sector of the random-field spin- \\frac 1 2 XXZ chain. These states satisfy a basic single cluster localization property (SCLP), derived in Elgart et al (2018 J. Funct. Anal. (in press)). This leads to many consequences, including dynamical exponential clustering, non-spreading of information under the time evolution, and a zero velocity Lieb-Robinson bound. Since SCLP is only applicable to the droplet sector, our definitions and proofs do not rely on knowledge of the spectral and dynamical characteristics of the model outside this regime. Rather, to allow for a possible mobility transition, we adapt the notion of restricting the Hamiltonian to an energy window from the single particle setting to the many body context.
Some random models in traffic science
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hjorth, U.
1996-06-01
We give an overview of stochastic models for the following traffic phenomena. Models for traffic flow including gaps and capacities for lanes, crossings and roundabouts. Models for wanted and achieved speed distributions. Mode selection models including dispersed equilibrium models and traffic accident models. Also some statistical questions are discussed. 60 refs, 1 tab
A Model for Random Student Drug Testing
Nelson, Judith A.; Rose, Nancy L.; Lutz, Danielle
2011-01-01
The purpose of this case study was to examine random student drug testing in one school district relevant to: (a) the perceptions of students participating in competitive extracurricular activities regarding drug use and abuse; (b) the attitudes and perceptions of parents, school staff, and community members regarding student drug involvement; (c)…
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ruban, Andrei; Simak, S.I.; Shallcross, S.
2003-01-01
We present a simple effective tetrahedron model for local lattice relaxation effects in random metallic alloys on simple primitive lattices. A comparison with direct ab initio calculations for supercells representing random Ni0.50Pt0.50 and Cu0.25Au0.75 alloys as well as the dilute limit of Au-ri......-rich CuAu alloys shows that the model yields a quantitatively accurate description of the relaxtion energies in these systems. Finally, we discuss the bond length distribution in random alloys....
Evaluating energy efficiency policies with energy-economy models
Mundaca, L.; Neij, L.; Worrell, E.; McNeil, M.
2010-01-01
The growing complexities of energy systems, environmental problems, and technology markets are driving and testing most energy-economy models to their limits. To further advance bottom-up models from a multidisciplinary energy efficiency policy evaluation perspective, we review and critically
Analog model for quantum gravity effects: phonons in random fluids.
Krein, G; Menezes, G; Svaiter, N F
2010-09-24
We describe an analog model for quantum gravity effects in condensed matter physics. The situation discussed is that of phonons propagating in a fluid with a random velocity wave equation. We consider that there are random fluctuations in the reciprocal of the bulk modulus of the system and study free phonons in the presence of Gaussian colored noise with zero mean. We show that, in this model, after performing the random averages over the noise function a free conventional scalar quantum field theory describing free phonons becomes a self-interacting model.
Evaluating Energy Efficiency Policies with Energy-Economy Models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Mundaca, Luis; Neij, Lena; Worrell, Ernst; McNeil, Michael A.
2010-08-01
The growing complexities of energy systems, environmental problems and technology markets are driving and testing most energy-economy models to their limits. To further advance bottom-up models from a multidisciplinary energy efficiency policy evaluation perspective, we review and critically analyse bottom-up energy-economy models and corresponding evaluation studies on energy efficiency policies to induce technological change. We use the household sector as a case study. Our analysis focuses on decision frameworks for technology choice, type of evaluation being carried out, treatment of market and behavioural failures, evaluated policy instruments, and key determinants used to mimic policy instruments. Although the review confirms criticism related to energy-economy models (e.g. unrealistic representation of decision-making by consumers when choosing technologies), they provide valuable guidance for policy evaluation related to energy efficiency. Different areas to further advance models remain open, particularly related to modelling issues, techno-economic and environmental aspects, behavioural determinants, and policy considerations.
Premium Pricing of Liability Insurance Using Random Sum Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mujiati Dwi Kartikasari
2017-03-01
Full Text Available Premium pricing is one of important activities in insurance. Nonlife insurance premium is calculated from expected value of historical data claims. The historical data claims are collected so that it forms a sum of independent random number which is called random sum. In premium pricing using random sum, claim frequency distribution and claim severity distribution are combined. The combination of these distributions is called compound distribution. By using liability claim insurance data, we analyze premium pricing using random sum model based on compound distribution
Modelling distributed energy resources in energy service networks
Acha, Salvador
2013-01-01
Focuses on modelling two key infrastructures (natural gas and electrical) in urban energy systems with embedded technologies (cogeneration and electric vehicles) to optimise the operation of natural gas and electrical infrastructures under the presence of distributed energy resources
Communication strategies for two models of discrete energy harvesting
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Trillingsgaard, Kasper Fløe; Popovski, Petar
2014-01-01
Energy harvesting is becoming a viable option for powering small wireless devices. Energy for data transmission is supplied by the nature, such that when a transmission is about to take place in an arbitrary instant, the amount of available energy is a random quantity. The arrived energy is stored...... in a battery and transmissions are interrupted if the battery runs out of energy. We address communication in slot-based energy harvesting systems, where the transmitter communicates with ON-OFF signaling: in each slot it can either choose to transmit (ON) or stay silent (OFF). Two different models...... strategies and compare the slot- with the frame-based model in the case of an errorless transmission channel. Additionally, for the slot-based model and channel with errors, we provide a new proof of the capacity achieved by the save-and-transmit scheme....
Conditional Monte Carlo randomization tests for regression models.
Parhat, Parwen; Rosenberger, William F; Diao, Guoqing
2014-08-15
We discuss the computation of randomization tests for clinical trials of two treatments when the primary outcome is based on a regression model. We begin by revisiting the seminal paper of Gail, Tan, and Piantadosi (1988), and then describe a method based on Monte Carlo generation of randomization sequences. The tests based on this Monte Carlo procedure are design based, in that they incorporate the particular randomization procedure used. We discuss permuted block designs, complete randomization, and biased coin designs. We also use a new technique by Plamadeala and Rosenberger (2012) for simple computation of conditional randomization tests. Like Gail, Tan, and Piantadosi, we focus on residuals from generalized linear models and martingale residuals from survival models. Such techniques do not apply to longitudinal data analysis, and we introduce a method for computation of randomization tests based on the predicted rate of change from a generalized linear mixed model when outcomes are longitudinal. We show, by simulation, that these randomization tests preserve the size and power well under model misspecification. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Modelling the impact of social network on energy savings
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Du, Feng; Zhang, Jiangfeng; Li, Hailong; Yan, Jinyue; Galloway, Stuart; Lo, Kwok L.
2016-01-01
Highlights: • Energy saving propagation along a social network is modelled. • This model consists of a time evolving weighted directed network. • Network weights and information decay are applied in savings calculation. - Abstract: It is noted that human behaviour changes can have a significant impact on energy consumption, however, qualitative study on such an impact is still very limited, and it is necessary to develop the corresponding mathematical models to describe how much energy savings can be achieved through human engagement. In this paper a mathematical model of human behavioural dynamic interactions on a social network is derived to calculate energy savings. This model consists of a weighted directed network with time evolving information on each node. Energy savings from the whole network is expressed as mathematical expectation from probability theory. This expected energy savings model includes both direct and indirect energy savings of individuals in the network. The savings model is obtained by network weights and modified by the decay of information. Expected energy savings are calculated for cases where individuals in the social network are treated as a single information source or multiple sources. This model is tested on a social network consisting of 40 people. The results show that the strength of relations between individuals is more important to information diffusion than the number of connections individuals have. The expected energy savings of optimally chosen node can be 25.32% more than randomly chosen nodes at the end of the second month for the case of single information source in the network, and 16.96% more than random nodes for the case of multiple information sources. This illustrates that the model presented in this paper can be used to determine which individuals will have the most influence on the social network, which in turn provides a useful guide to identify targeted customers in energy efficiency technology rollout
The ising model on the dynamical triangulated random surface
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Aleinov, I.D.; Migelal, A.A.; Zmushkow, U.V.
1990-01-01
The critical properties of Ising model on the dynamical triangulated random surface embedded in D-dimensional Euclidean space are investigated. The strong coupling expansion method is used. The transition to thermodynamical limit is performed by means of continuous fractions
Simulating WTP Values from Random-Coefficient Models
Maurus Rischatsch
2009-01-01
Discrete Choice Experiments (DCEs) designed to estimate willingness-to-pay (WTP) values are very popular in health economics. With increased computation power and advanced simulation techniques, random-coefficient models have gained an increasing importance in applied work as they allow for taste heterogeneity. This paper discusses the parametrical derivation of WTP values from estimated random-coefficient models and shows how these values can be simulated in cases where they do not have a kn...
Approximating prediction uncertainty for random forest regression models
John W. Coulston; Christine E. Blinn; Valerie A. Thomas; Randolph H. Wynne
2016-01-01
Machine learning approaches such as random forest haveÂ increased for the spatial modeling and mapping of continuousÂ variables. Random forest is a non-parametric ensembleÂ approach, and unlike traditional regression approaches thereÂ is no direct quantification of prediction error. UnderstandingÂ prediction uncertainty is important when using model-basedÂ continuous maps as...
Ground state energy fluctuations in the nuclear shell model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Velazquez, Victor; Hirsch, Jorge G.; Frank, Alejandro; Barea, Jose; Zuker, Andres P.
2005-01-01
Statistical fluctuations of the nuclear ground state energies are estimated using shell model calculations in which particles in the valence shells interact through well-defined forces, and are coupled to an upper shell governed by random 2-body interactions. Induced ground-state energy fluctuations are found to be one order of magnitude smaller than those previously associated with chaotic components, in close agreement with independent perturbative estimates based on the spreading widths of excited states
A random spatial network model based on elementary postulates
Karlinger, Michael R.; Troutman, Brent M.
1989-01-01
A model for generating random spatial networks that is based on elementary postulates comparable to those of the random topology model is proposed. In contrast to the random topology model, this model ascribes a unique spatial specification to generated drainage networks, a distinguishing property of some network growth models. The simplicity of the postulates creates an opportunity for potential analytic investigations of the probabilistic structure of the drainage networks, while the spatial specification enables analyses of spatially dependent network properties. In the random topology model all drainage networks, conditioned on magnitude (number of first-order streams), are equally likely, whereas in this model all spanning trees of a grid, conditioned on area and drainage density, are equally likely. As a result, link lengths in the generated networks are not independent, as usually assumed in the random topology model. For a preliminary model evaluation, scale-dependent network characteristics, such as geometric diameter and link length properties, and topologic characteristics, such as bifurcation ratio, are computed for sets of drainage networks generated on square and rectangular grids. Statistics of the bifurcation and length ratios fall within the range of values reported for natural drainage networks, but geometric diameters tend to be relatively longer than those for natural networks.
Application of random regression models to the genetic evaluation ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
The model included fixed regression on AM (range from 30 to 138 mo) and the effect of herd-measurement date concatenation. Random parts of the model were RRM coefficients for additive and permanent environmental effects, while residual effects were modelled to account for heterogeneity of variance by AY. Estimates ...
Random regression models for detection of gene by environment interaction
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Meuwissen Theo HE
2007-02-01
Full Text Available Abstract Two random regression models, where the effect of a putative QTL was regressed on an environmental gradient, are described. The first model estimates the correlation between intercept and slope of the random regression, while the other model restricts this correlation to 1 or -1, which is expected under a bi-allelic QTL model. The random regression models were compared to a model assuming no gene by environment interactions. The comparison was done with regards to the models ability to detect QTL, to position them accurately and to detect possible QTL by environment interactions. A simulation study based on a granddaughter design was conducted, and QTL were assumed, either by assigning an effect independent of the environment or as a linear function of a simulated environmental gradient. It was concluded that the random regression models were suitable for detection of QTL effects, in the presence and absence of interactions with environmental gradients. Fixing the correlation between intercept and slope of the random regression had a positive effect on power when the QTL effects re-ranked between environments.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Perez, J.F.; Pontin, L.F.; Segundo, J.A.B.
1985-01-01
Using a method proposed by van Hemmen the free energy of the Curie-Weiss version of the site-dilute antiferromagnetic Ising model is computed, in the presence of an uniform magnetic field. The solution displays an exact correspondence between this model and the Curie-Weiss version of the Ising model in the presence of a random magnetic field. The phase diagrams are discussed and a tricritical point is shown to exist. (Author) [pt
Global energy modeling - A biophysical approach
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Dale, Michael
2010-09-15
This paper contrasts the standard economic approach to energy modelling with energy models using a biophysical approach. Neither of these approaches includes changing energy-returns-on-investment (EROI) due to declining resource quality or the capital intensive nature of renewable energy sources. Both of these factors will become increasingly important in the future. An extension to the biophysical approach is outlined which encompasses a dynamic EROI function that explicitly incorporates technological learning. The model is used to explore several scenarios of long-term future energy supply especially concerning the global transition to renewable energy sources in the quest for a sustainable energy system.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ovchinnikov, O. S.; Jesse, S.; Kalinin, S. V.; Bintacchit, P.; Trolier-McKinstry, S.
2009-01-01
An approach for the direct identification of disorder type and strength in physical systems based on recognition analysis of hysteresis loop shape is developed. A large number of theoretical examples uniformly distributed in the parameter space of the system is generated and is decorrelated using principal component analysis (PCA). The PCA components are used to train a feed-forward neural network using the model parameters as targets. The trained network is used to analyze hysteresis loops for the investigated system. The approach is demonstrated using a 2D random-bond-random-field Ising model, and polarization switching in polycrystalline ferroelectric capacitors.
A generalized model via random walks for information filtering
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ren, Zhuo-Ming; Kong, Yixiu; Shang, Ming-Sheng; Zhang, Yi-Cheng
2016-01-01
There could exist a simple general mechanism lurking beneath collaborative filtering and interdisciplinary physics approaches which have been successfully applied to online E-commerce platforms. Motivated by this idea, we propose a generalized model employing the dynamics of the random walk in the bipartite networks. Taking into account the degree information, the proposed generalized model could deduce the collaborative filtering, interdisciplinary physics approaches and even the enormous expansion of them. Furthermore, we analyze the generalized model with single and hybrid of degree information on the process of random walk in bipartite networks, and propose a possible strategy by using the hybrid degree information for different popular objects to toward promising precision of the recommendation. - Highlights: • We propose a generalized recommendation model employing the random walk dynamics. • The proposed model with single and hybrid of degree information is analyzed. • A strategy with the hybrid degree information improves precision of recommendation.
A generalized model via random walks for information filtering
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ren, Zhuo-Ming, E-mail: zhuomingren@gmail.com [Department of Physics, University of Fribourg, Chemin du Musée 3, CH-1700, Fribourg (Switzerland); Chongqing Institute of Green and Intelligent Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, ChongQing, 400714 (China); Kong, Yixiu [Department of Physics, University of Fribourg, Chemin du Musée 3, CH-1700, Fribourg (Switzerland); Shang, Ming-Sheng, E-mail: msshang@cigit.ac.cn [Chongqing Institute of Green and Intelligent Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, ChongQing, 400714 (China); Zhang, Yi-Cheng [Department of Physics, University of Fribourg, Chemin du Musée 3, CH-1700, Fribourg (Switzerland)
2016-08-06
There could exist a simple general mechanism lurking beneath collaborative filtering and interdisciplinary physics approaches which have been successfully applied to online E-commerce platforms. Motivated by this idea, we propose a generalized model employing the dynamics of the random walk in the bipartite networks. Taking into account the degree information, the proposed generalized model could deduce the collaborative filtering, interdisciplinary physics approaches and even the enormous expansion of them. Furthermore, we analyze the generalized model with single and hybrid of degree information on the process of random walk in bipartite networks, and propose a possible strategy by using the hybrid degree information for different popular objects to toward promising precision of the recommendation. - Highlights: • We propose a generalized recommendation model employing the random walk dynamics. • The proposed model with single and hybrid of degree information is analyzed. • A strategy with the hybrid degree information improves precision of recommendation.
Modelling energy systems for developing countries
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Urban, F.; Benders, R.M.J.; Moll, H.C.
2007-01-01
Developing countries' energy use is rapidly increasing, which affects global climate change and global and regional energy settings. Energy models are helpful for exploring the future of developing and industrialised countries. However, energy systems of developing countries differ from those of industrialised countries, which has consequences for energy modelling. New requirements need to be met by present-day energy models to adequately explore the future of developing countries' energy systems. This paper aims to assess if the main characteristics of developing countries are adequately incorporated in present-day energy models. We first discuss these main characteristics, focusing particularly on developing Asia, and then present a model comparison of 12 selected energy models to test their suitability for developing countries. We conclude that many models are biased towards industrialised countries, neglecting main characteristics of developing countries, e.g. the informal economy, supply shortages, poor performance of the power sector, structural economic change, electrification, traditional bio-fuels, urban-rural divide. To more adequately address the energy systems of developing countries, energy models have to be adjusted and new models have to be built. We therefore indicate how to improve energy models for increasing their suitability for developing countries and give advice on modelling techniques and data requirements
Money Creation in a Random Matching Model
Alexei Deviatov
2006-01-01
I study money creation in versions of the Trejos-Wright (1995) and Shi (1995) models with indivisible money and individual holdings bounded at two units. I work with the same class of policies as in Deviatov and Wallace (2001), who study money creation in that model. However, I consider an alternative notion of implementability–the ex ante pairwise core. I compute a set of numerical examples to determine whether money creation is beneficial. I find beneficial e?ects of money creation if indiv...
Random effects models in clinical research
Cleophas, T. J.; Zwinderman, A. H.
2008-01-01
BACKGROUND: In clinical trials a fixed effects research model assumes that the patients selected for a specific treatment have the same true quantitative effect and that the differences observed are residual error. If, however, we have reasons to believe that certain patients respond differently
Economic modelling of energy services: Rectifying misspecified energy demand functions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hunt, Lester C.; Ryan, David L.
2015-01-01
Although it is well known that energy demand is derived, since energy is required not for its own sake but for the energy services it produces – such as heating, lighting, and motive power – energy demand models, both theoretical and empirical, often fail to take account of this feature. In this paper, we highlight the misspecification that results from ignoring this aspect, and its empirical implications – biased estimates of price elasticities and other measures – and provide a relatively simple and empirically practicable way to rectify it, which has a strong theoretical grounding. To do so, we develop an explicit model of consumer behaviour in which utility derives from consumption of energy services rather than from the energy sources that are used to produce them. As we discuss, this approach opens up the possibility of examining many aspects of energy demand in a theoretically sound way that have not previously been considered on a widespread basis, although some existing empirical work could be interpreted as being consistent with this type of specification. While this formulation yields demand equations for energy services rather than for energy or particular energy sources, these are shown to be readily converted, without added complexity, into the standard type of energy demand equation(s) that is (are) typically estimated. The additional terms that the resulting energy demand equations include, compared to those that are typically estimated, highlight the misspecification that is implicit when typical energy demand equations are estimated. A simple solution for dealing with an apparent drawback of this formulation for empirical purposes, namely that information is required on typically unobserved energy efficiency, indicates how energy efficiency can be captured in the model, such as by including exogenous trends and/or including its possible dependence on past energy prices. The approach is illustrated using an empirical example that involves
Radgolchin, Moeen; Moeenfard, Hamid
2018-02-01
The construction of self-powered micro-electro-mechanical units by converting the mechanical energy of the systems into electrical power has attracted much attention in recent years. While power harvesting from deterministic external excitations is state of the art, it has been much more difficult to derive mathematical models for scavenging electrical energy from ambient random vibrations, due to the stochastic nature of the excitations. The current research concerns analytical modeling of micro-bridge energy harvesters based on random vibration theory. Since classical elasticity fails to accurately predict the mechanical behavior of micro-structures, strain gradient theory is employed as a powerful tool to increase the accuracy of the random vibration modeling of the micro-harvester. Equations of motion of the system in the time domain are derived using the Lagrange approach. These are then utilized to determine the frequency and impulse responses of the structure. Assuming the energy harvester to be subjected to a combination of broadband and limited-band random support motion and transverse loading, closed-form expressions for mean, mean square, correlation and spectral density of the output power are derived. The suggested formulation is further exploited to investigate the effect of the different design parameters, including the geometric properties of the structure as well as the properties of the electrical circuit on the resulting power. Furthermore, the effect of length scale parameters on the harvested energy is investigated in detail. It is observed that the predictions of classical and even simple size-dependent theories (such as couple stress) appreciably differ from the findings of strain gradient theory on the basis of random vibration. This study presents a first-time modeling of micro-scale harvesters under stochastic excitations using a size-dependent approach and can be considered as a reliable foundation for future research in the field of
Money creation process in a random redistribution model
Chen, Siyan; Wang, Yougui; Li, Keqiang; Wu, Jinshan
2014-01-01
In this paper, the dynamical process of money creation in a random exchange model with debt is investigated. The money creation kinetics are analyzed by both the money-transfer matrix method and the diffusion method. From both approaches, we attain the same conclusion: the source of money creation in the case of random exchange is the agents with neither money nor debt. These analytical results are demonstrated by computer simulations.
Utility based maintenance analysis using a Random Sign censoring model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Andres Christen, J.; Ruggeri, Fabrizio; Villa, Enrique
2011-01-01
Industrial systems subject to failures are usually inspected when there are evident signs of an imminent failure. Maintenance is therefore performed at a random time, somehow dependent on the failure mechanism. A competing risk model, namely a Random Sign model, is considered to relate failure and maintenance times. We propose a novel Bayesian analysis of the model and apply it to actual data from a water pump in an oil refinery. The design of an optimal maintenance policy is then discussed under a formal decision theoretic approach, analyzing the goodness of the current maintenance policy and making decisions about the optimal maintenance time.
Random Matrix Theory Approach to Indonesia Energy Portfolio Analysis
Mahardhika, Alifian; Purqon, Acep
2017-07-01
In a few years, Indonesia experienced difficulties in maintaining energy security, the problem is the decline in oil production from 1.6 million barrels per day to 861 thousand barrels per day in 2012. However, there is a difference condition in 2015 until the third week in 2016, world oil prices actually fell at the lowest price level since last 12 years. The decline in oil prices due to oversupply of oil by oil-producing countries of the world due to the instability of the world economy. Wave of layoffs in Indonesia is a response to the decline in oil prices, this led to the energy and mines portfolios Indonesia feared would not be more advantageous than the portfolio in other countries. In this research, portfolio analysis will be done on energy and mining in Indonesia by using stock price data of energy and mines in the period 26 November 2010 until April 1, 2016. It was found that the results have a wide effect of the market potential is high in the determination of the return on the portfolio energy and mines. Later, it was found that there are eight of the thirty stocks in the energy and mining portfolio of Indonesia which have a high probability of return relative to the average return of stocks in a portfolio of energy and mines.
(Non-) Gibbsianness and Phase Transitions in Random Lattice Spin Models
Külske, C.
1999-01-01
We consider disordered lattice spin models with finite-volume Gibbs measures µΛ[η](dσ). Here σ denotes a lattice spin variable and η a lattice random variable with product distribution P describing the quenched disorder of the model. We ask: when will the joint measures limΛ↑Zd P(dη)µΛ[η](dσ) be
Shape Modelling Using Markov Random Field Restoration of Point Correspondences
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Paulsen, Rasmus Reinhold; Hilger, Klaus Baggesen
2003-01-01
A method for building statistical point distribution models is proposed. The novelty in this paper is the adaption of Markov random field regularization of the correspondence field over the set of shapes. The new approach leads to a generative model that produces highly homogeneous polygonized sh...
Simulating intrafraction prostate motion with a random walk model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tobias Pommer, PhD
2017-07-01
Conclusions: Random walk modeling is feasible and recreated the characteristics of the observed prostate motion. Introducing artificial transient motion did not improve the overall agreement, although the first 30 seconds of the traces were better reproduced. The model provides a simple estimate of prostate motion during delivery of radiation therapy.
Single-cluster dynamics for the random-cluster model
Deng, Y.; Qian, X.; Blöte, H.W.J.
2009-01-01
We formulate a single-cluster Monte Carlo algorithm for the simulation of the random-cluster model. This algorithm is a generalization of the Wolff single-cluster method for the q-state Potts model to noninteger values q>1. Its results for static quantities are in a satisfactory agreement with those
Application of Poisson random effect models for highway network screening.
Jiang, Ximiao; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Alamili, Samer
2014-02-01
In recent years, Bayesian random effect models that account for the temporal and spatial correlations of crash data became popular in traffic safety research. This study employs random effect Poisson Log-Normal models for crash risk hotspot identification. Both the temporal and spatial correlations of crash data were considered. Potential for Safety Improvement (PSI) were adopted as a measure of the crash risk. Using the fatal and injury crashes that occurred on urban 4-lane divided arterials from 2006 to 2009 in the Central Florida area, the random effect approaches were compared to the traditional Empirical Bayesian (EB) method and the conventional Bayesian Poisson Log-Normal model. A series of method examination tests were conducted to evaluate the performance of different approaches. These tests include the previously developed site consistence test, method consistence test, total rank difference test, and the modified total score test, as well as the newly proposed total safety performance measure difference test. Results show that the Bayesian Poisson model accounting for both temporal and spatial random effects (PTSRE) outperforms the model that with only temporal random effect, and both are superior to the conventional Poisson Log-Normal model (PLN) and the EB model in the fitting of crash data. Additionally, the method evaluation tests indicate that the PTSRE model is significantly superior to the PLN model and the EB model in consistently identifying hotspots during successive time periods. The results suggest that the PTSRE model is a superior alternative for road site crash risk hotspot identification. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
A note on moving average models for Gaussian random fields
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, Linda Vadgård; Thorarinsdottir, Thordis L.
The class of moving average models offers a flexible modeling framework for Gaussian random fields with many well known models such as the Matérn covariance family and the Gaussian covariance falling under this framework. Moving average models may also be viewed as a kernel smoothing of a Lévy...... basis, a general modeling framework which includes several types of non-Gaussian models. We propose a new one-parameter spatial correlation model which arises from a power kernel and show that the associated Hausdorff dimension of the sample paths can take any value between 2 and 3. As a result...
Models of Energy Saving Systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nørgård, Jørgen Stig
1999-01-01
only. The need for including also the economic policy in the energy planning is illustrated with what is termed the efficiency pittfall. This points towards difficulties in imaging an integrated resource planning combined with a liberalized market. The three variable parameters, population, energy...... service level and technology are demonstrated as the main determinants of future energy consumption. In the concluding remarks, the main flaws of present energy policy and some visions of the future are discussed....
Vitolo, Marcia Regina; Bortolini, Gisele Ane; Campagnolo, Paula Dal Bo; Hoffman, Daniel J.
2012-01-01
Objective: To evaluate the impact of a dietary counseling in reducing the intake of energy-dense foods by infants. Design: A randomized controlled trial. Setting and Participants: Sao Leopoldo, Brazil. Mothers and infants of a low-income-group population were randomized into intervention (n = 163) and received dietary counseling during 10 home…
Random matrix theory of the energy-level statistics of disordered systems at the Anderson transition
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Canali, C M
1995-09-01
We consider a family of random matrix ensembles (RME) invariant under similarity transformations and described by the probability density P(H) exp[-TrV(H)]. Dyson`s mean field theory (MFT) of the corresponding plasma model of eigenvalues is generalized to the case of weak confining potential, V(is an element of) {approx} A/2 ln{sup 2}(is an element of). The eigenvalue statistics derived from MFT are shown to deviate substantially from the classical Wigner-Dyson statistics when A < 1. By performing systematic Monte Carlo simulations on the plasma model, we compute all the relevant statistical properties of the RME with weak confinement. For A{sub c} approx. 0.4 the distribution function of the level spacings (LSDF) coincides in a large energy window with the energy LSDF of the three dimensional Anderson model at the metal-insulator transition. For the same A = A{sub c}, the RME eigenvalue-number variance is linear and its slope is equal to 0.32 {+-} 0.02, which is consistent with the value found for the Anderson model at the critical point. (author). 51 refs, 10 figs.
Capabilities and accuracy of energy modelling software
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Osburn, L
2010-11-01
Full Text Available Energy modelling can be used in a number of different ways to fulfill different needs, including certification within building regulations or green building rating tools. Energy modelling can also be used in order to try and predict what the energy...
The hard-core model on random graphs revisited
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Barbier, Jean; Krzakala, Florent; Zhang, Pan; Zdeborová, Lenka
2013-01-01
We revisit the classical hard-core model, also known as independent set and dual to vertex cover problem, where one puts particles with a first-neighbor hard-core repulsion on the vertices of a random graph. Although the case of random graphs with small and very large average degrees respectively are quite well understood, they yield qualitatively different results and our aim here is to reconciliate these two cases. We revisit results that can be obtained using the (heuristic) cavity method and show that it provides a closed-form conjecture for the exact density of the densest packing on random regular graphs with degree K ≥ 20, and that for K > 16 the nature of the phase transition is the same as for large K. This also shows that the hard-code model is the simplest mean-field lattice model for structural glasses and jamming
Some Limits Using Random Slope Models to Measure Academic Growth
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Daniel B. Wright
2017-11-01
Full Text Available Academic growth is often estimated using a random slope multilevel model with several years of data. However, if there are few time points, the estimates can be unreliable. While using random slope multilevel models can lower the variance of the estimates, these procedures can produce more highly erroneous estimates—zero and negative correlations with the true underlying growth—than using ordinary least squares estimates calculated for each student or school individually. An example is provided where schools with increasing graduation rates are estimated to have negative growth and vice versa. The estimation is worse when the underlying data are skewed. It is recommended that there are at least six time points for estimating growth if using a random slope model. A combination of methods can be used to avoid some of the aberrant results if it is not possible to have six or more time points.
The random field Blume-Capel model revisited
Santos, P. V.; da Costa, F. A.; de Araújo, J. M.
2018-04-01
We have revisited the mean-field treatment for the Blume-Capel model under the presence of a discrete random magnetic field as introduced by Kaufman and Kanner (1990). The magnetic field (H) versus temperature (T) phase diagrams for given values of the crystal field D were recovered in accordance to Kaufman and Kanner original work. However, our main goal in the present work was to investigate the distinct structures of the crystal field versus temperature phase diagrams as the random magnetic field is varied because similar models have presented reentrant phenomenon due to randomness. Following previous works we have classified the distinct phase diagrams according to five different topologies. The topological structure of the phase diagrams is maintained for both H - T and D - T cases. Although the phase diagrams exhibit a richness of multicritical phenomena we did not found any reentrant effect as have been seen in similar models.
Economics, modeling, planning and management of energy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rogner, H.H.; Khan, A.M.; Furlan, G.
1989-01-01
The Workshop attended by 89 participants from 40 countries aimed to provide participants with an overview of global and regional issues and to familiarize them with analytical tools and modeling techniques appropriate for the analysis and planning of national energy systems. Emphasis was placed on energy-economy-interaction, modelling for balancing energy demand and supply, technical-economic evaluation of energy supply alternatives and energy demand management. This volume presents some of the lectures delivered at the Workshop. The material has been organized in five parts under the headings General Review of Current Energy Trends, Energy and Technology Menu, Basic Analytical Approaches, Energy Modeling and Planning, and Energy Management and Policy. A separate abstract was prepared for each of the lectures presented. Refs, figs and tabs
Hybrid Energy System Modeling in Modelica
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
William R. Binder; Christiaan J. J. Paredis; Humberto E. Garcia
2014-03-01
In this paper, a Hybrid Energy System (HES) configuration is modeled in Modelica. Hybrid Energy Systems (HES) have as their defining characteristic the use of one or more energy inputs, combined with the potential for multiple energy outputs. Compared to traditional energy systems, HES provide additional operational flexibility so that high variability in both energy production and consumption levels can be absorbed more effectively. This is particularly important when including renewable energy sources, whose output levels are inherently variable, determined by nature. The specific HES configuration modeled in this paper include two energy inputs: a nuclear plant, and a series of wind turbines. In addition, the system produces two energy outputs: electricity and synthetic fuel. The models are verified through simulations of the individual components, and the system as a whole. The simulations are performed for a range of component sizes, operating conditions, and control schemes.
Two sustainable energy system analysis models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lund, Henrik; Goran Krajacic, Neven Duic; da Graca Carvalho, Maria
2005-01-01
This paper presents a comparative study of two energy system analysis models both designed with the purpose of analysing electricity systems with a substantial share of fluctuating renewable energy....
Origin of holographic dark energy models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Myung, Yun Soo; Seo, Min-Gyun
2009-01-01
We investigate the origin of holographic dark energy models which were recently proposed to explain the dark energy-dominated universe. For this purpose, we introduce the spacetime foam uncertainty of δl≥l p α l α-1 . It was argued that the case of α=2/3 could describe the dark energy with infinite statistics, while the case of α=1/2 can describe the ordinary matter with Bose-Fermi statistics. However, two cases may lead to the holographic energy density if the latter recovers from the geometric mean of UV and IR scales. Hence the dark energy with infinite statistics based on the entropy bound is not an ingredient for deriving the holographic dark energy model. Furthermore, it is shown that the agegraphic dark energy models are the holographic dark energy model with different IR length scales
A simple dynamic energy capacity model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gander, James P.
2012-01-01
I develop a simple dynamic model showing how total energy capacity is allocated to two different uses and how these uses and their corresponding energy flows are related and behave through time. The control variable of the model determines the allocation. All the variables of the model are in terms of a composite energy equivalent measured in BTU's. A key focus is on the shadow price of energy capacity and its behavior through time. Another key focus is on the behavior of the control variable that determines the allocation of overall energy capacity. The matching or linking of the model's variables to real world U.S. energy data is undertaken. In spite of some limitations of the data, the model and its behavior fit the data fairly well. Some energy policy implications are discussed. - Highlights: ► The model shows how energy capacity is allocated to current output production versus added energy capacity production. ► Two variables in the allocation are the shadow price of capacity and the control variable that determines the allocation. ► The model was linked to U.S. historical energy data and fit the data quite well. ► In particular, the policy control variable was cyclical and consistent with the model. ► Policy implications relevant to the allocation of energy capacity are discussed briefly.
Effects of random noise in a dynamical model of love
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Xu Yong, E-mail: hsux3@nwpu.edu.cn [Department of Applied Mathematics, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi' an 710072 (China); Gu Rencai; Zhang Huiqing [Department of Applied Mathematics, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi' an 710072 (China)
2011-07-15
Highlights: > We model the complexity and unpredictability of psychology as Gaussian white noise. > The stochastic system of love is considered including bifurcation and chaos. > We show that noise can both suppress and induce chaos in dynamical models of love. - Abstract: This paper aims to investigate the stochastic model of love and the effects of random noise. We first revisit the deterministic model of love and some basic properties are presented such as: symmetry, dissipation, fixed points (equilibrium), chaotic behaviors and chaotic attractors. Then we construct a stochastic love-triangle model with parametric random excitation due to the complexity and unpredictability of the psychological system, where the randomness is modeled as the standard Gaussian noise. Stochastic dynamics under different three cases of 'Romeo's romantic style', are examined and two kinds of bifurcations versus the noise intensity parameter are observed by the criteria of changes of top Lyapunov exponent and shape of stationary probability density function (PDF) respectively. The phase portraits and time history are carried out to verify the proposed results, and the good agreement can be found. And also the dual roles of the random noise, namely suppressing and inducing chaos are revealed.
Effects of random noise in a dynamical model of love
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Xu Yong; Gu Rencai; Zhang Huiqing
2011-01-01
Highlights: → We model the complexity and unpredictability of psychology as Gaussian white noise. → The stochastic system of love is considered including bifurcation and chaos. → We show that noise can both suppress and induce chaos in dynamical models of love. - Abstract: This paper aims to investigate the stochastic model of love and the effects of random noise. We first revisit the deterministic model of love and some basic properties are presented such as: symmetry, dissipation, fixed points (equilibrium), chaotic behaviors and chaotic attractors. Then we construct a stochastic love-triangle model with parametric random excitation due to the complexity and unpredictability of the psychological system, where the randomness is modeled as the standard Gaussian noise. Stochastic dynamics under different three cases of 'Romeo's romantic style', are examined and two kinds of bifurcations versus the noise intensity parameter are observed by the criteria of changes of top Lyapunov exponent and shape of stationary probability density function (PDF) respectively. The phase portraits and time history are carried out to verify the proposed results, and the good agreement can be found. And also the dual roles of the random noise, namely suppressing and inducing chaos are revealed.
Using Random Forest Models to Predict Organizational Violence
Levine, Burton; Bobashev, Georgly
2012-01-01
We present a methodology to access the proclivity of an organization to commit violence against nongovernment personnel. We fitted a Random Forest model using the Minority at Risk Organizational Behavior (MAROS) dataset. The MAROS data is longitudinal; so, individual observations are not independent. We propose a modification to the standard Random Forest methodology to account for the violation of the independence assumption. We present the results of the model fit, an example of predicting violence for an organization; and finally, we present a summary of the forest in a "meta-tree,"
Randomly dispersed particle fuel model in the PSG Monte Carlo neutron transport code
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Leppaenen, J.
2007-01-01
High-temperature gas-cooled reactor fuels are composed of thousands of microscopic fuel particles, randomly dispersed in a graphite matrix. The modelling of such geometry is complicated, especially using continuous-energy Monte Carlo codes, which are unable to apply any deterministic corrections in the calculation. This paper presents the geometry routine developed for modelling randomly dispersed particle fuels using the PSG Monte Carlo reactor physics code. The model is based on the delta-tracking method, and it takes into account the spatial self-shielding effects and the random dispersion of the fuel particles. The calculation routine is validated by comparing the results to reference MCNP4C calculations using uranium and plutonium based fuels. (authors)
Comparing holographic dark energy models with statefinder
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cui, Jing-Lei; Zhang, Jing-Fei
2014-01-01
We apply the statefinder diagnostic to the holographic dark energy models, including the original holographic dark energy (HDE) model, the new holographic dark energy model, the new agegraphic dark energy (NADE) model, and the Ricci dark energy model. In the low-redshift region the holographic dark energy models are degenerate with each other and with the ΛCDM model in the H(z) and q(z) evolutions. In particular, the HDE model is highly degenerate with the ΛCDM model, and in the HDE model the cases with different parameter values are also in strong degeneracy. Since the observational data are mainly within the low-redshift region, it is very important to break this lowredshift degeneracy in the H(z) and q(z) diagnostics by using some quantities with higher order derivatives of the scale factor. It is shown that the statefinder diagnostic r(z) is very useful in breaking the low-redshift degeneracies. By employing the statefinder diagnostic the holographic dark energy models can be differentiated efficiently in the low-redshift region. The degeneracy between the holographic dark energy models and the ΛCDM model can also be broken by this method. Especially for the HDE model, all the previous strong degeneracies appearing in the H(z) and q(z) diagnostics are broken effectively. But for the NADE model, the degeneracy between the cases with different parameter values cannot be broken, even though the statefinder diagnostic is used. A direct comparison of the holographic dark energy models in the r-s plane is also made, in which the separations between the models (including the ΛCDM model) can be directly measured in the light of the current values {r 0 , s 0 } of the models. (orig.)
Parametric Statistics of Individual Energy Levels in Random Hamiltonians
Smolyarenko, I. E.; Simons, B. D.
2002-01-01
We establish a general framework to explore parametric statistics of individual energy levels in disordered and chaotic quantum systems of unitary symmetry. The method is applied to the calculation of the universal intra-level parametric velocity correlation function and the distribution of level shifts under the influence of an arbitrary external perturbation.
Random matrix theory of the energy-level statistics of disordered systems at the Anderson transition
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Canali, C.M.
1995-09-01
We consider a family of random matrix ensembles (RME) invariant under similarity transformations and described by the probability density P(H) exp[-TrV(H)]. Dyson's mean field theory (MFT) of the corresponding plasma model of eigenvalues is generalized to the case of weak confining potential, V(is an element of) ∼ A/2 ln 2 (is an element of). The eigenvalue statistics derived from MFT are shown to deviate substantially from the classical Wigner-Dyson statistics when A c approx. 0.4 the distribution function of the level spacings (LSDF) coincides in a large energy window with the energy LSDF of the three dimensional Anderson model at the metal-insulator transition. For the same A = A c , the RME eigenvalue-number variance is linear and its slope is equal to 0.32 ± 0.02, which is consistent with the value found for the Anderson model at the critical point. (author). 51 refs, 10 figs
Technology Learning Ratios in Global Energy Models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Varela, M.
2001-01-01
The process of introduction of a new technology supposes that while its production and utilisation increases, also its operation improves and its investment costs and production decreases. The accumulation of experience and learning of a new technology increase in parallel with the increase of its market share. This process is represented by the technological learning curves and the energy sector is not detached from this process of substitution of old technologies by new ones. The present paper carries out a brief revision of the main energy models that include the technology dynamics (learning). The energy scenarios, developed by global energy models, assume that the characteristics of the technologies are variables with time. But this trend is incorporated in a exogenous way in these energy models, that is to say, it is only a time function. This practice is applied to the cost indicators of the technology such as the specific investment costs or to the efficiency of the energy technologies. In the last years, the new concept of endogenous technological learning has been integrated within these global energy models. This paper examines the concept of technological learning in global energy models. It also analyses the technological dynamics of the energy system including the endogenous modelling of the process of technological progress. Finally, it makes a comparison of several of the most used global energy models (MARKAL, MESSAGE and ERIS) and, more concretely, about the use these models make of the concept of technological learning. (Author) 17 refs
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Abdalla, Elcio, E-mail: eabdalla@usp.br [Instituto de Física, Universidade de São Paulo, CP 66318, 05315-970, São Paulo (Brazil); Graef, L.L., E-mail: leilagraef@usp.br [Instituto de Física, Universidade de São Paulo, CP 66318, 05315-970, São Paulo (Brazil); Wang, Bin, E-mail: wang_b@sjtu.edu.cn [INPAC and Department of Physics, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 200240 Shanghai (China)
2013-11-04
We discuss a model of nonperturbative decay of dark energy. We suggest the possibility that this model can provide a mechanism from the field theory to realize the energy transfer from dark energy into dark matter, which is the requirement to alleviate the coincidence problem. The advantage of the model is the fact that it accommodates a mean life compatible with the age of the universe. We also argue that supersymmetry is a natural set up, though not essential.
Rapid Energy Modeling Workflow Demonstration Project
2014-01-01
app FormIt for conceptual modeling with further refinement available in Revit or Vasari. Modeling can also be done in Revit (detailed and conceptual...referenced building model while in the field. • Autodesk® Revit is a BIM software application with integrated energy and carbon analyses driven by Green...FormIt, Revit and Vasari, and (3) comparative analysis. The energy results of these building analyses are represented as annual energy use for natural
Models for the energy performance of low-energy houses
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Philip Hvidthøft Delff
of buildings, the first topic analyzed is the variation of presence of occupants. As buildings get more energy-effcient, internal loads and user-behavior increasingly influence the energy consumption. Most simulation tools use deterministic occupancy profiles to simulate internal loads. However, such occupancy......The aim of this thesis is data-driven modeling of heat dynamics of buildings. Traditionally, thermal modeling of buildings is done using simulation tools which take information about the construction, weather data, occupancy etc. as inputs and generate deterministic energy profiles of the buildings....... The approach to modeling occupants’ presence provides a flexible method where no assumptions in the application. The rest of the thesis deals with statistical modeling of heat dynamics of buildings. First, discrete-time models are applied. Discrete-time models are computationally relatively simple and provide...
Directory of Energy Information Administration models 1996
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
NONE
1996-07-01
This directory revises and updates the Directory of Energy Information Administration Models 1995, DOE/EIA-0293(95), Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. Department of Energy, July 1995. Four models have been deleted in this directory as they are no longer being used: (1) Market Penetration Model for Ground-Water Heat Pump Systems (MPGWHP); (2) Market Penetration Model for Residential Rooftop PV Systems (MPRESPV-PC); (3) Market Penetration Model for Active and Passive Solar Technologies (MPSOLARPC); and (4) Revenue Requirements Modeling System (RRMS).
Factorisations for partition functions of random Hermitian matrix models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jackson, D.M.; Visentin, T.I.
1996-01-01
The partition function Z N , for Hermitian-complex matrix models can be expressed as an explicit integral over R N , where N is a positive integer. Such an integral also occurs in connection with random surfaces and models of two dimensional quantum gravity. We show that Z N can be expressed as the product of two partition functions, evaluated at translated arguments, for another model, giving an explicit connection between the two models. We also give an alternative computation of the partition function for the φ 4 -model.The approach is an algebraic one and holds for the functions regarded as formal power series in the appropriate ring. (orig.)
Dynamic energy models and carbon mitigation policies
Tilley, Luke A.
In this dissertation I examine a specific class of energy models and their implications for carbon mitigation policies. The class of models includes a production function capable of reproducing the empirically observed phenomenon of short run rigidity of energy use in response to energy price changes and long run exibility of energy use in response to energy price changes. I use a theoretical model, parameterized using empirical data, to simulate economic performance under several tax regimes where taxes are levied on capital income, investment, and energy. I also investigate transitions from one tax regime to another. I find that energy taxes intended to reduce energy use can successfully achieve those goals with minimal or even positive impacts on macroeconomic performance. But the transition paths to new steady states are lengthy, making political commitment to such policies very challenging.
An Empirical Model for Energy Storage Systems
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rosewater, David Martin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Scott, Paul [TransPower, Poway, CA (United States)
2016-03-17
Improved models of energy storage systems are needed to enable the electric grid’s adaptation to increasing penetration of renewables. This paper develops a generic empirical model of energy storage system performance agnostic of type, chemistry, design or scale. Parameters for this model are calculated using test procedures adapted from the US DOE Protocol for Uniformly Measuring and Expressing the Performance of Energy Storage. We then assess the accuracy of this model for predicting the performance of the TransPower GridSaver – a 1 MW rated lithium-ion battery system that underwent laboratory experimentation and analysis. The developed model predicts a range of energy storage system performance based on the uncertainty of estimated model parameters. Finally, this model can be used to better understand the integration and coordination of energy storage on the electric grid.
Statistical properties of several models of fractional random point processes
Bendjaballah, C.
2011-08-01
Statistical properties of several models of fractional random point processes have been analyzed from the counting and time interval statistics points of view. Based on the criterion of the reduced variance, it is seen that such processes exhibit nonclassical properties. The conditions for these processes to be treated as conditional Poisson processes are examined. Numerical simulations illustrate part of the theoretical calculations.
Statistical shape model with random walks for inner ear segmentation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pujadas, Esmeralda Ruiz; Kjer, Hans Martin; Piella, Gemma
2016-01-01
is required. We propose a new framework for segmentation of micro-CT cochlear images using random walks combined with a statistical shape model (SSM). The SSM allows us to constrain the less contrasted areas and ensures valid inner ear shape outputs. Additionally, a topology preservation method is proposed...
Asthma Self-Management Model: Randomized Controlled Trial
Olivera, Carolina M. X.; Vianna, Elcio Oliveira; Bonizio, Roni C.; de Menezes, Marcelo B.; Ferraz, Erica; Cetlin, Andrea A.; Valdevite, Laura M.; Almeida, Gustavo A.; Araujo, Ana S.; Simoneti, Christian S.; de Freitas, Amanda; Lizzi, Elisangela A.; Borges, Marcos C.; de Freitas, Osvaldo
2016-01-01
Information for patients provided by the pharmacist is reflected in adhesion to treatment, clinical results and patient quality of life. The objective of this study was to assess an asthma self-management model for rational medicine use. This was a randomized controlled trial with 60 asthmatic patients assigned to attend five modules presented by…
The dilute random field Ising model by finite cluster approximation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Benyoussef, A.; Saber, M.
1987-09-01
Using the finite cluster approximation, phase diagrams of bond and site diluted three-dimensional simple cubic Ising models with a random field have been determined. The resulting phase diagrams have the same general features for both bond and site dilution. (author). 7 refs, 4 figs
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bachschmid-Romano, Ludovica; Opper, Manfred
2015-01-01
We study analytically the performance of a recently proposed algorithm for learning the couplings of a random asymmetric kinetic Ising model from finite length trajectories of the spin dynamics. Our analysis shows the importance of the nontrivial equal time correlations between spins induced by the dynamics for the speed of learning. These correlations become more important as the spin’s stochasticity is decreased. We also analyse the deviation of the estimation error (paper)
Evolution of the concentration PDF in random environments modeled by global random walk
Suciu, Nicolae; Vamos, Calin; Attinger, Sabine; Knabner, Peter
2013-04-01
The evolution of the probability density function (PDF) of concentrations of chemical species transported in random environments is often modeled by ensembles of notional particles. The particles move in physical space along stochastic-Lagrangian trajectories governed by Ito equations, with drift coefficients given by the local values of the resolved velocity field and diffusion coefficients obtained by stochastic or space-filtering upscaling procedures. A general model for the sub-grid mixing also can be formulated as a system of Ito equations solving for trajectories in the composition space. The PDF is finally estimated by the number of particles in space-concentration control volumes. In spite of their efficiency, Lagrangian approaches suffer from two severe limitations. Since the particle trajectories are constructed sequentially, the demanded computing resources increase linearly with the number of particles. Moreover, the need to gather particles at the center of computational cells to perform the mixing step and to estimate statistical parameters, as well as the interpolation of various terms to particle positions, inevitably produce numerical diffusion in either particle-mesh or grid-free particle methods. To overcome these limitations, we introduce a global random walk method to solve the system of Ito equations in physical and composition spaces, which models the evolution of the random concentration's PDF. The algorithm consists of a superposition on a regular lattice of many weak Euler schemes for the set of Ito equations. Since all particles starting from a site of the space-concentration lattice are spread in a single numerical procedure, one obtains PDF estimates at the lattice sites at computational costs comparable with those for solving the system of Ito equations associated to a single particle. The new method avoids the limitations concerning the number of particles in Lagrangian approaches, completely removes the numerical diffusion, and
Directory of Energy Information Administration Models 1994
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1994-07-01
This directory revises and updates the 1993 directory and includes 15 models of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). Three other new models in use by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) have also been included: the Motor Gasoline Market Model (MGMM), Distillate Market Model (DMM), and the Propane Market Model (PPMM). This directory contains descriptions about each model, including title, acronym, purpose, followed by more detailed information on characteristics, uses and requirements. Sources for additional information are identified. Included in this directory are 37 EIA models active as of February 1, 1994
Directory of Energy Information Administration Models 1994
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
1994-07-01
This directory revises and updates the 1993 directory and includes 15 models of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). Three other new models in use by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) have also been included: the Motor Gasoline Market Model (MGMM), Distillate Market Model (DMM), and the Propane Market Model (PPMM). This directory contains descriptions about each model, including title, acronym, purpose, followed by more detailed information on characteristics, uses and requirements. Sources for additional information are identified. Included in this directory are 37 EIA models active as of February 1, 1994.
Quantum random oracle model for quantum digital signature
Shang, Tao; Lei, Qi; Liu, Jianwei
2016-10-01
The goal of this work is to provide a general security analysis tool, namely, the quantum random oracle (QRO), for facilitating the security analysis of quantum cryptographic protocols, especially protocols based on quantum one-way function. QRO is used to model quantum one-way function and different queries to QRO are used to model quantum attacks. A typical application of quantum one-way function is the quantum digital signature, whose progress has been hampered by the slow pace of the experimental realization. Alternatively, we use the QRO model to analyze the provable security of a quantum digital signature scheme and elaborate the analysis procedure. The QRO model differs from the prior quantum-accessible random oracle in that it can output quantum states as public keys and give responses to different queries. This tool can be a test bed for the cryptanalysis of more quantum cryptographic protocols based on the quantum one-way function.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bennett, D.L.; Brene, N.; Nielsen, H.B.
1986-06-01
The goal of random dynamics is the derivation of the laws of Nature as we know them (standard model) from inessential assumptions. The inessential assumptions made here are expressed as sets of general models at extremely high energies: gauge glass and spacetime foam. Both sets of models lead tentatively to the standard model. (orig.)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bennett, D.L.
1987-01-01
The goal of random dynamics is the derivation of the laws of Nature as we know them (standard model) from inessential assumptions. The inessential assumptions made here are expressed as sets of general models at extremely high energies: Gauge glass and spacetime foam. Both sets of models lead tentatively to the standard model. (orig.)
Bennett, D. L.; Brene, N.; Nielsen, H. B.
1987-01-01
The goal of random dynamics is the derivation of the laws of Nature as we know them (standard model) from inessential assumptions. The inessential assumptions made here are expressed as sets of general models at extremely high energies: gauge glass and spacetime foam. Both sets of models lead tentatively to the standard model.
Quantum random bit generation using energy fluctuations in stimulated Raman scattering.
Bustard, Philip J; England, Duncan G; Nunn, Josh; Moffatt, Doug; Spanner, Michael; Lausten, Rune; Sussman, Benjamin J
2013-12-02
Random number sequences are a critical resource in modern information processing systems, with applications in cryptography, numerical simulation, and data sampling. We introduce a quantum random number generator based on the measurement of pulse energy quantum fluctuations in Stokes light generated by spontaneously-initiated stimulated Raman scattering. Bright Stokes pulse energy fluctuations up to five times the mean energy are measured with fast photodiodes and converted to unbiased random binary strings. Since the pulse energy is a continuous variable, multiple bits can be extracted from a single measurement. Our approach can be generalized to a wide range of Raman active materials; here we demonstrate a prototype using the optical phonon line in bulk diamond.
Investigating Facebook Groups through a Random Graph Model
Dinithi Pallegedara; Lei Pan
2014-01-01
Facebook disseminates messages for billions of users everyday. Though there are log files stored on central servers, law enforcement agencies outside of the U.S. cannot easily acquire server log files from Facebook. This work models Facebook user groups by using a random graph model. Our aim is to facilitate detectives quickly estimating the size of a Facebook group with which a suspect is involved. We estimate this group size according to the number of immediate friends and the number of ext...
World energy projection system: Model documentation
1992-06-01
The World Energy Project System (WEPS) is an accounting framework that incorporates projects from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product) and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by hydropower, geothermal, coal, and natural gas to produce projections of world energy consumption published annually by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in the International Energy Outlook (IEO). Two independently documented models presented in Figure 1, the Oil Market Simulation (OMS) model and the World Integrated Nuclear Evaluation System (WINES), provide projections of oil and nuclear power consumption published in the IEO. Output from a third independently documented model, and the International Coal Trade Model (ICTM), is not published in the IEO but is used in WEPS as a supply check on projections of world coal consumption produced by WEPS and published in the IEO. A WEPS model of natural gas production documented in this report provides the same type of implicit supply check on the WEPS projections of world natural gas consumption published in the IEO. Two additional models are included in Figure 1, the OPEC Capacity model and the Non-OPEC Oil Production model. These WEPS models provide inputs to the OMS model and are documented in this report.
World energy projection system: Model documentation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1992-06-01
The World Energy Project System (WEPS) is an accounting framework that incorporates projects from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product) and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by hydropower, geothermal, coal, and natural gas to produce projections of world energy consumption published annually by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in the International Energy Outlook (IEO) (Figure 1). Two independently documented models presented in Figure 1, the Oil Market Simulation (OMS) model and the World Integrated Nuclear Evaluation System (WINES) provide projections of oil and nuclear power consumption published in the IEO. Output from a third independently documented model, and the International Coal Trade Model (ICTM), is not published in the IEO but is used in WEPS as a supply check on projections of world coal consumption produced by WEPS and published in the IEO. A WEPS model of natural gas production documented in this report provides the same type of implicit supply check on the WEPS projections of world natural gas consumption published in the IEO. Two additional models are included in Figure 1, the OPEC Capacity model and the Non-OPEC Oil Production model. These WEPS models provide inputs to the OMS model and are documented in this report
Stochastic geometry, spatial statistics and random fields models and algorithms
2015-01-01
Providing a graduate level introduction to various aspects of stochastic geometry, spatial statistics and random fields, this volume places a special emphasis on fundamental classes of models and algorithms as well as on their applications, for example in materials science, biology and genetics. This book has a strong focus on simulations and includes extensive codes in Matlab and R, which are widely used in the mathematical community. It can be regarded as a continuation of the recent volume 2068 of Lecture Notes in Mathematics, where other issues of stochastic geometry, spatial statistics and random fields were considered, with a focus on asymptotic methods.
A cultural model of household energy consumption
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lutzenhiser, Loren
1992-01-01
In this paper, we consider the development of demand-side research, from an early interest in conservation behavior to a later focus on physical, economic, psychological and social models of energy consumption. Unfortunately, none of these models account satisfactorily for measured energy consumption in the residential sector. Growing interest in the end-uses of energy (e.g. in support of load forecasting, demand-side management and least-cost utility planning), increasing international studies of energy use, and continuing work in the energy and lifestyles research tradition now support an emerging cultural perspective on household energy use. The ecological foundations of the cultural model and its applications in energy research are discussed, along with some of the analytic consequences of this approach. (author)
Modelling energy demand of Croatian industry sector
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Medić, Zlatko Bačelić; Pukšec, Tomislav; Mathiesen, Brian Vad
2014-01-01
Industry represents one of the most interesting sectors when analysing Croatian final energy demand. Croatian industry represents 20% of nation's GDP and employs 25% of total labour force making it a significant subject for the economy. Today, with around 60 PJ of final energy demand...... it is the third most energy intensive sector in Croatia after transport and households. Implementing mechanisms that would lead to improvements in energy efficiency in this sector seems relevant. Through this paper, long-term energy demand projections for Croatian industry will be shown. The central point...... for development of the model will be parameters influencing the industry in Croatia. Energy demand predictions in this paper are based upon bottom-up approach model. IED model produces results which can be compared to Croatian National Energy Strategy. One of the conclusions shown in this paper is significant...
Modeling of renewable hybrid energy sources
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dumitru Cristian Dragos
2009-12-01
Full Text Available Recent developments and trends in the electric power consumption indicate an increasing use of renewable energy. Renewable energy technologies offer the promise of clean, abundant energy gathered from self-renewing resources such as the sun, wind, earth and plants. Virtually all regions of the world have renewable resources of one type or another. By this point of view studies on renewable energies focuses more and more attention. The present paper intends to present different mathematical models related to different types of renewable energy sources such as: solar energy and wind energy. It is also presented the validation and adaptation of such models to hybrid systems working in geographical and meteorological conditions specific to central part of Transylvania region. The conclusions based on validation of such models are also shown.
Ren, Xinguo; Rinke, Patrick; Tkatchenko, Alexandre; Scheffler, Matthias
2010-01-01
The random-phase approximation (RPA) for the electron correlation energy, combined with the exact-exchange (EX) energy, represents the state-of-the-art exchange-correlation functional within density-functional theory. However, the standard RPA practice-evaluating both the EX and the RPA correlation energies using Kohn-Sham (KS) orbitals from local or semilocal exchange-correlation functionals-leads to a systematic underbinding of molecules and solids. Here we demonstrate that this behavior ca...
Energy flow modeling and optimal operation analysis of the micro energy grid based on energy hub
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ma, Tengfei; Wu, Junyong; Hao, Liangliang
2017-01-01
Highlights: • Design a novel architecture for energy hub integrating power hub, cooling hub and heating hub. • The micro energy grid based on energy hub is introduced and its advantages are discussed. • Propose a generic modeling method for the energy flow of micro energy grid. • Propose an optimal operation model for micro energy grid with considering demand response. • The roles of renewable energy, energy storage devices and demand response are discussed separately. - Abstract: The energy security and environmental problems impel people to explore a more efficient, environment friendly and economical energy utilization pattern. In this paper, the coordinated operation and optimal dispatch strategies for multiple energy system are studied at the whole Micro Energy Grid level. To augment the operation flexibility of energy hub, the innovation sub-energy hub structure including power hub, heating hub and cooling hub is put forward. Basing on it, a generic energy hub architecture integrating renewable energy, combined cooling heating and power, and energy storage devices is developed. Moreover, a generic modeling method for the energy flow of micro energy grid is proposed. To minimize the daily operation cost, a day-ahead dynamic optimal operation model is formulated as a mixed integer linear programming optimization problem with considering the demand response. Case studies are undertaken on a community Micro Energy Grid in four different scenarios on a typical summer day and the roles of renewable energy, energy storage devices and demand response are discussed separately. Numerical simulation results indicate that the proposed energy flow modeling and optimal operation method are universal and effective over the entire energy dispatching horizon.
Modeling Energy and Development : An Evaluation of Models and Concepts
Ruijven, Bas van; Urban, Frauke; Benders, René M.J.; Moll, Henri C.; Sluijs, Jeroen P. van der; Vries, Bert de; Vuuren, Detlef P. van
2008-01-01
Most global energy models are developed by institutes from developed countries focusing primarily oil issues that are important in industrialized countries. Evaluation of the results for Asia of the IPCC/SRES models shows that broad concepts of energy and development. the energy ladder and the
Simulating intrafraction prostate motion with a random walk model.
Pommer, Tobias; Oh, Jung Hun; Munck Af Rosenschöld, Per; Deasy, Joseph O
2017-01-01
Prostate motion during radiation therapy (ie, intrafraction motion) can cause unwanted loss of radiation dose to the prostate and increased dose to the surrounding organs at risk. A compact but general statistical description of this motion could be useful for simulation of radiation therapy delivery or margin calculations. We investigated whether prostate motion could be modeled with a random walk model. Prostate motion recorded during 548 radiation therapy fractions in 17 patients was analyzed and used for input in a random walk prostate motion model. The recorded motion was categorized on the basis of whether any transient excursions (ie, rapid prostate motion in the anterior and superior direction followed by a return) occurred in the trace and transient motion. This was separately modeled as a large step in the anterior/superior direction followed by a returning large step. Random walk simulations were conducted with and without added artificial transient motion using either motion data from all observed traces or only traces without transient excursions as model input, respectively. A general estimate of motion was derived with reasonable agreement between simulated and observed traces, especially during the first 5 minutes of the excursion-free simulations. Simulated and observed diffusion coefficients agreed within 0.03, 0.2 and 0.3 mm 2 /min in the left/right, superior/inferior, and anterior/posterior directions, respectively. A rapid increase in variance at the start of observed traces was difficult to reproduce and seemed to represent the patient's need to adjust before treatment. This could be estimated somewhat using artificial transient motion. Random walk modeling is feasible and recreated the characteristics of the observed prostate motion. Introducing artificial transient motion did not improve the overall agreement, although the first 30 seconds of the traces were better reproduced. The model provides a simple estimate of prostate motion during
Modeling of chromosome intermingling by partially overlapping uniform random polygons.
Blackstone, T; Scharein, R; Borgo, B; Varela, R; Diao, Y; Arsuaga, J
2011-03-01
During the early phase of the cell cycle the eukaryotic genome is organized into chromosome territories. The geometry of the interface between any two chromosomes remains a matter of debate and may have important functional consequences. The Interchromosomal Network model (introduced by Branco and Pombo) proposes that territories intermingle along their periphery. In order to partially quantify this concept we here investigate the probability that two chromosomes form an unsplittable link. We use the uniform random polygon as a crude model for chromosome territories and we model the interchromosomal network as the common spatial region of two overlapping uniform random polygons. This simple model allows us to derive some rigorous mathematical results as well as to perform computer simulations easily. We find that the probability that one uniform random polygon of length n that partially overlaps a fixed polygon is bounded below by 1 − O(1/√n). We use numerical simulations to estimate the dependence of the linking probability of two uniform random polygons (of lengths n and m, respectively) on the amount of overlapping. The degree of overlapping is parametrized by a parameter [Formula: see text] such that [Formula: see text] indicates no overlapping and [Formula: see text] indicates total overlapping. We propose that this dependence relation may be modeled as f (ε, m, n) = [Formula: see text]. Numerical evidence shows that this model works well when [Formula: see text] is relatively large (ε ≥ 0.5). We then use these results to model the data published by Branco and Pombo and observe that for the amount of overlapping observed experimentally the URPs have a non-zero probability of forming an unsplittable link.
Modelling smart energy systems in tropical regions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Dominkovic, D. F.; Dobravec, V.; Jiang, Y.
2018-01-01
and water desalination sectors. Five different large scale storages were modelled, too. The developed linear optimization model further included endogenous decisions about the share of district versus individual cooling, implementation of energy efficiency solutions and implementation of demand response...... emissions, 15% higher particulate matter emissions and 2% larger primary energy consumption compared to a business-as-usual case....
Holography and holographic dark energy model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gong Yungui; Zhang Yuanzhong
2005-01-01
The holographic principle is used to discuss the holographic dark energy model. We find that the Bekenstein-Hawking entropy bound is far from saturation under certain conditions. A more general constraint on the parameter of the holographic dark energy model is also derived
Energy and externality environmental regional model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Baldi, L.; Bianchi, A.; Peri, M.
2000-01-01
The use of environmental externalities in both territorial management and the direction of energy and environment, faces the difficulties arising from their calculation. The so-called MACBET regional model, which has been constructed for Lombardy, is a first brand new attempt to overcome them. MACBET is a calculation model to assess environmental and employment externalities connected to energy use [it
Towards an energy management maturity model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Antunes, Pedro; Carreira, Paulo; Mira da Silva, Miguel
2014-01-01
Energy management is becoming a priority as organizations strive to reduce energy costs, conform to regulatory requirements, and improve their corporate image. Despite the upsurge of interest in energy management standards, a gap persists between energy management literature and current implementation practices. This gap can be traced to the lack of an incremental improvement roadmap. In this paper we propose an Energy Management Maturity Model that can be used to guide organizations in their energy management implementation efforts to incrementally achieve compliance with energy management standards such as ISO 50001. The proposed maturity model is inspired on the Plan-Do-Check-Act cycle approach for continual improvement, and covers well-understood fundamental energy management activities common across energy management texts. The completeness of our proposal is then evaluated by establishing an ontology mapping against ISO 50001. - Highlights: • Real-world energy management activities are not aligned with the literature. • An Energy Management Maturity Model is proposed to overcome this alignment gap. • The completeness and relevance of proposed model are validated
Modeling of battery energy storage in the National Energy Modeling System
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Swaminathan, S.; Flynn, W.T.; Sen, R.K. [Sentech, Inc., Bethesda, MD (United States)
1997-12-01
The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) developed by the U.S. Department of Energy`s Energy Information Administration is a well-recognized model that is used to project the potential impact of new electric generation technologies. The NEMS model does not presently have the capability to model energy storage on the national grid. The scope of this study was to assess the feasibility of, and make recommendations for, the modeling of battery energy storage systems in the Electricity Market of the NEMS. Incorporating storage within the NEMS will allow the national benefits of storage technologies to be evaluated.
Model based energy benchmarking for glass furnace
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sardeshpande, Vishal; Gaitonde, U.N.; Banerjee, Rangan
2007-01-01
Energy benchmarking of processes is important for setting energy efficiency targets and planning energy management strategies. Most approaches used for energy benchmarking are based on statistical methods by comparing with a sample of existing plants. This paper presents a model based approach for benchmarking of energy intensive industrial processes and illustrates this approach for industrial glass furnaces. A simulation model for a glass furnace is developed using mass and energy balances, and heat loss equations for the different zones and empirical equations based on operating practices. The model is checked with field data from end fired industrial glass furnaces in India. The simulation model enables calculation of the energy performance of a given furnace design. The model results show the potential for improvement and the impact of different operating and design preferences on specific energy consumption. A case study for a 100 TPD end fired furnace is presented. An achievable minimum energy consumption of about 3830 kJ/kg is estimated for this furnace. The useful heat carried by glass is about 53% of the heat supplied by the fuel. Actual furnaces operating at these production scales have a potential for reduction in energy consumption of about 20-25%
A generalized model via random walks for information filtering
Ren, Zhuo-Ming; Kong, Yixiu; Shang, Ming-Sheng; Zhang, Yi-Cheng
2016-08-01
There could exist a simple general mechanism lurking beneath collaborative filtering and interdisciplinary physics approaches which have been successfully applied to online E-commerce platforms. Motivated by this idea, we propose a generalized model employing the dynamics of the random walk in the bipartite networks. Taking into account the degree information, the proposed generalized model could deduce the collaborative filtering, interdisciplinary physics approaches and even the enormous expansion of them. Furthermore, we analyze the generalized model with single and hybrid of degree information on the process of random walk in bipartite networks, and propose a possible strategy by using the hybrid degree information for different popular objects to toward promising precision of the recommendation.
Balmorel open source energy system model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Wiese, Frauke; Bramstoft, Rasmus; Koduvere, Hardi
2018-01-01
As the world progresses towards a cleaner energy future with more variable renewable energy sources, energy system models are required to deal with new challenges. This article describes design, development and applications of the open source energy system model Balmorel, which is a result...... of a long and fruitful cooperation between public and private institutions within energy system research and analysis. The purpose of the article is to explain the modelling approach, to highlight strengths and challenges of the chosen approach, to create awareness about the possible applications...... of Balmorel as well as to inspire to new model developments and encourage new users to join the community. Some of the key strengths of the model are the flexible handling of the time and space dimensions and the combination of operation and investment optimisation. Its open source character enables diverse...
Chuang, Jason; Ausloos, Emily C; Schwebach, Courtney A; Huang, Xin
2016-12-01
The perception of visual motion can be profoundly influenced by visual context. To gain insight into how the visual system represents motion speed, we investigated how a background stimulus that did not move in a net direction influenced the perceived speed of a center stimulus. Visual stimuli were two overlapping random-dot patterns. The center stimulus moved coherently in a fixed direction, whereas the background stimulus moved randomly. We found that human subjects perceived the speed of the center stimulus to be significantly faster than its veridical speed when the background contained motion noise. Interestingly, the perceived speed was tuned to the noise level of the background. When the speed of the center stimulus was low, the highest perceived speed was reached when the background had a low level of motion noise. As the center speed increased, the peak perceived speed was reached at a progressively higher background noise level. The effect of speed overestimation required the center stimulus to overlap with the background. Increasing the background size within a certain range enhanced the effect, suggesting spatial integration. The speed overestimation was significantly reduced or abolished when the center stimulus and the background stimulus had different colors, or when they were placed at different depths. When the center- and background-stimuli were perceptually separable, speed overestimation was correlated with perceptual similarity between the center- and background-stimuli. These results suggest that integration of motion energy from random motion noise has a significant impact on speed perception. Our findings put new constraints on models regarding the neural basis of speed perception. Copyright © 2016 the American Physiological Society.
Creating, generating and comparing random network models with NetworkRandomizer.
Tosadori, Gabriele; Bestvina, Ivan; Spoto, Fausto; Laudanna, Carlo; Scardoni, Giovanni
2016-01-01
Biological networks are becoming a fundamental tool for the investigation of high-throughput data in several fields of biology and biotechnology. With the increasing amount of information, network-based models are gaining more and more interest and new techniques are required in order to mine the information and to validate the results. To fill the validation gap we present an app, for the Cytoscape platform, which aims at creating randomised networks and randomising existing, real networks. Since there is a lack of tools that allow performing such operations, our app aims at enabling researchers to exploit different, well known random network models that could be used as a benchmark for validating real, biological datasets. We also propose a novel methodology for creating random weighted networks, i.e. the multiplication algorithm, starting from real, quantitative data. Finally, the app provides a statistical tool that compares real versus randomly computed attributes, in order to validate the numerical findings. In summary, our app aims at creating a standardised methodology for the validation of the results in the context of the Cytoscape platform.
Yoon, Heonjun; Kim, Miso; Park, Choon-Su; Youn, Byeng D.
2018-01-01
Piezoelectric vibration energy harvesting (PVEH) has received much attention as a potential solution that could ultimately realize self-powered wireless sensor networks. Since most ambient vibrations in nature are inherently random and nonstationary, the output performances of PVEH devices also randomly change with time. However, little attention has been paid to investigating the randomly time-varying electroelastic behaviors of PVEH systems both analytically and experimentally. The objective of this study is thus to make a step forward towards a deep understanding of the time-varying performances of PVEH devices under nonstationary random vibrations. Two typical cases of nonstationary random vibration signals are considered: (1) randomly-varying amplitude (amplitude modulation; AM) and (2) randomly-varying amplitude with randomly-varying instantaneous frequency (amplitude and frequency modulation; AM-FM). In both cases, this study pursues well-balanced correlations of analytical predictions and experimental observations to deduce the relationships between the time-varying output performances of the PVEH device and two primary input parameters, such as a central frequency and an external electrical resistance. We introduce three correlation metrics to quantitatively compare analytical prediction and experimental observation, including the normalized root mean square error, the correlation coefficient, and the weighted integrated factor. Analytical predictions are in an excellent agreement with experimental observations both mechanically and electrically. This study provides insightful guidelines for designing PVEH devices to reliably generate electric power under nonstationary random vibrations.
Janssen, Dirk P
2012-03-01
Psychologists, psycholinguists, and other researchers using language stimuli have been struggling for more than 30 years with the problem of how to analyze experimental data that contain two crossed random effects (items and participants). The classical analysis of variance does not apply; alternatives have been proposed but have failed to catch on, and a statistically unsatisfactory procedure of using two approximations (known as F(1) and F(2)) has become the standard. A simple and elegant solution using mixed model analysis has been available for 15 years, and recent improvements in statistical software have made mixed models analysis widely available. The aim of this article is to increase the use of mixed models by giving a concise practical introduction and by giving clear directions for undertaking the analysis in the most popular statistical packages. The article also introduces the DJMIXED: add-on package for SPSS, which makes entering the models and reporting their results as straightforward as possible.
Stochastic Modelling of Energy Systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Klaus Kaae
2001-01-01
is that the model structure has to be adequate for practical applications, such as system simulation, fault detection and diagnosis, and design of control strategies. This also reflects on the methods used for identification of the component models. The main result from this research is the identification......In this thesis dynamic models of typical components in Danish heating systems are considered. Emphasis is made on describing and evaluating mathematical methods for identification of such models, and on presentation of component models for practical applications. The thesis consists of seven...... research papers (case studies) together with a summary report. Each case study takes it's starting point in typical heating system components and both, the applied mathematical modelling methods and the application aspects, are considered. The summary report gives an introduction to the scope...
Thermal behavior for a nanoscale two ferromagnetic phase system based on random anisotropy model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Muraca, D.; Sanchez, F.H.; Pampillo, L.G.; Saccone, F.D.
2010-01-01
Advances in theory that explain the magnetic behavior as function of temperature for two phase nanocrystalline soft magnetic materials are presented. The theory developed is based on the well known random anisotropy model, which includes the crystalline exchange stiffness and anisotropy energies in both amorphous and crystalline phases. The phenomenological behavior of the coercivity was obtained in the temperature range between the amorphous phase Curie temperature and the crystalline phase one.
Scaling of coercivity in a 3d random anisotropy model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Proctor, T.C., E-mail: proctortc@gmail.com; Chudnovsky, E.M., E-mail: EUGENE.CHUDNOVSKY@lehman.cuny.edu; Garanin, D.A.
2015-06-15
The random-anisotropy Heisenberg model is numerically studied on lattices containing over ten million spins. The study is focused on hysteresis and metastability due to topological defects, and is relevant to magnetic properties of amorphous and sintered magnets. We are interested in the limit when ferromagnetic correlations extend beyond the size of the grain inside which the magnetic anisotropy axes are correlated. In that limit the coercive field computed numerically roughly scales as the fourth power of the random anisotropy strength and as the sixth power of the grain size. Theoretical arguments are presented that provide an explanation of numerical results. Our findings should be helpful for designing amorphous and nanosintered materials with desired magnetic properties. - Highlights: • We study the random-anisotropy model on lattices containing up to ten million spins. • Irreversible behavior due to topological defects (hedgehogs) is elucidated. • Hysteresis loop area scales as the fourth power of the random anisotropy strength. • In nanosintered magnets the coercivity scales as the six power of the grain size.
Modeling random combustion of lycopodium particles and gas
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M Bidabadi
2016-06-01
Full Text Available The random modeling combustion of lycopodium particles has been researched by many authors. In this paper, we extend this model and we also generate a different method by analyzing the effect of random distributed sources of combustible mixture. The flame structure is assumed to consist of a preheat-vaporization zone, a reaction zone and finally a post flame zone. We divide the preheat zone to different parts. We assumed that there is different distribution of particles in sections which are really random. Meanwhile, it is presumed that the fuel particles vaporize first to yield gaseous fuel. In other words, most of the fuel particles are vaporized at the end of the preheat zone. It is assumed that the Zel’dovich number is large; therefore, the reaction term in preheat zone is negligible. In this work, the effect of random distribution of particles in the preheat zone on combustion characteristics such as burning velocity, flame temperature for different particle radius is obtained.
Emergent randomness in the Jaynes-Cummings model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Garraway, B M; Stenholm, S
2008-01-01
We consider the well-known Jaynes-Cummings model and ask if it can display randomness. As a solvable Hamiltonian system, it does not display chaotic behaviour in the ordinary sense. Here, however, we look at the distribution of values taken up during the total time evolution. This evolution is determined by the eigenvalues distributed as the square roots of integers and leads to a seemingly erratic behaviour. That this may display a random Gaussian value distribution is suggested by an exactly provable result by Kac. In order to reach our conclusion we use the Kac model to develop tests for the emergence of a Gaussian. Even if the consequent double limits are difficult to evaluate numerically, we find definite indications that the Jaynes-Cummings case also produces a randomness in its value distributions. Numerical methods do not establish such a result beyond doubt, but our conclusions are definite enough to suggest strongly an unexpected randomness emerging in a dynamic time evolution
A Fay-Herriot Model with Different Random Effect Variances
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Hobza, Tomáš; Morales, D.; Herrador, M.; Esteban, M.D.
2011-01-01
Roč. 40, č. 5 (2011), s. 785-797 ISSN 0361-0926 R&D Projects: GA MŠk 1M0572 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : small area estimation * Fay-Herriot model * Linear mixed model * Labor Force Survey Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.274, year: 2011 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2011/SI/hobza-a%20fay-herriot%20model%20with%20different%20random%20effect%20variances.pdf
Dark energy observational evidence and theoretical models
Novosyadlyj, B; Shtanov, Yu; Zhuk, A
2013-01-01
The book elucidates the current state of the dark energy problem and presents the results of the authors, who work in this area. It describes the observational evidence for the existence of dark energy, the methods and results of constraining of its parameters, modeling of dark energy by scalar fields, the space-times with extra spatial dimensions, especially Kaluza---Klein models, the braneworld models with a single extra dimension as well as the problems of positive definition of gravitational energy in General Relativity, energy conditions and consequences of their violation in the presence of dark energy. This monograph is intended for science professionals, educators and graduate students, specializing in general relativity, cosmology, field theory and particle physics.
Energy Systems Modelling Research and Analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Møller Andersen, Frits; Alberg Østergaard, Poul
2015-01-01
This editorial introduces the seventh volume of the International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management. The volume presents part of the outcome of the project Energy Systems Modelling Research and Analysis (ENSYMORA) funded by the Danish Innovation Fund. The project carried out b...... by 11 university and industry partners has improved the basis for decision-making within energy planning and energy scenario making by providing new and improved tools and methods for energy systems analyses.......This editorial introduces the seventh volume of the International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management. The volume presents part of the outcome of the project Energy Systems Modelling Research and Analysis (ENSYMORA) funded by the Danish Innovation Fund. The project carried out...
Modeling and optimization of HVAC energy consumption
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kusiak, Andrew; Li, Mingyang; Tang, Fan [Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 - 1527 (United States)
2010-10-15
A data-driven approach for minimization of the energy to air condition a typical office-type facility is presented. Eight data-mining algorithms are applied to model the nonlinear relationship among energy consumption, control settings (supply air temperature and supply air static pressure), and a set of uncontrollable parameters. The multiple-linear perceptron (MLP) ensemble outperforms other models tested in this research, and therefore it is selected to model a chiller, a pump, a fan, and a reheat device. These four models are integrated into an energy optimization model with two decision variables, the setpoint of the supply air temperature and the static pressure in the air handling unit. The model is solved with a particle swarm optimization algorithm. The optimization results have demonstrated the total energy consumed by the heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning system is reduced by over 7%. (author)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lacroix, D.; Durand, D.
2005-09-01
Rules for in-medium complex particle production in nuclear reactions are proposed. These rules have been implemented in two models to simulate nucleon-nucleus and nucleus-nucleus reactions around the Fermi energy. Our work emphasizes the effect of randomness in cluster formation, the importance of the nucleonic Fermi motion as well as the role of conservation laws. The concepts of total available phase-space and explored phase-space under constraint imposed by the reaction are clarified. The compatibility of experimental observations with a random clusterization is illustrated in a schematic scenario of a proton-nucleus collision. The role of randomness under constraint is also illustrated in the nucleus-nucleus case. (authors)
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Wendt, Fabian F.; Yu, Yi-Hsiang; Nielsen, Kim
2017-01-01
This is the first joint reference paper for the Ocean Energy Systems (OES) Task 10 Wave Energy Converter modeling verification and validation group. The group is established under the OES Energy Technology Network program under the International Energy Agency. OES was founded in 2001 and Task 10 ...
Towards increased policy relevance in energy modeling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Worrell, Ernst; Ramesohl, Stephan; Boyd, Gale
2003-07-29
Historically, most energy models were reasonably equipped to assess the impact of a subsidy or change in taxation, but are often insufficient to assess the impact of more innovative policy instruments. We evaluate the models used to assess future energy use, focusing on industrial energy use. We explore approaches to engineering-economic analysis that could help improve the realism and policy relevance of engineering-economic modeling frameworks. We also explore solutions to strengthen the policy usefulness of engineering-economic analysis that can be built from a framework of multi-disciplinary cooperation. We focus on the so-called ''engineering-economic'' (or ''bottom-up'') models, as they include the amount of detail that is commonly needed to model policy scenarios. We identify research priorities for the modeling framework, technology representation in models, policy evaluation and modeling of decision-making behavior.
Energy modeling issues in quick service restaurants
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Smith, V.A.; Johnson, K.F.
1997-03-01
The complexity of monitoring and modeling the energy performance of food-service facilities was discussed. Usually, less than one third of the energy consumed in a commercial food-service facility is used by equipment and systems typically modeled in building simulation software such as DOE-2. Algorithms have not yet been developed to handle independent makeup air units and the kitchen and dining room HVAC systems. The energy used by food process equipment and water heating is based on customer-volume and operation-hours. Monitoring projects have been undertaken to provide detailed energy use profiles of individual appliances and whole restaurants. Some technical issues that are unique to food-service modeling in current versions of DOE-2.1E software in the context of quick service restaurants, such as difficulties in modelling internal heat gains of hooded cooking appliances and walk-in refrigeration, and system and zone limitations on tracking energy consumption, were discussed. 1 fig.
Energy based prediction models for building acoustics
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Brunskog, Jonas
2012-01-01
In order to reach robust and simplified yet accurate prediction models, energy based principle are commonly used in many fields of acoustics, especially in building acoustics. This includes simple energy flow models, the framework of statistical energy analysis (SEA) as well as more elaborated...... principles as, e.g., wave intensity analysis (WIA). The European standards for building acoustic predictions, the EN 12354 series, are based on energy flow and SEA principles. In the present paper, different energy based prediction models are discussed and critically reviewed. Special attention is placed...... on underlying basic assumptions, such as diffuse fields, high modal overlap, resonant field being dominant, etc., and the consequences of these in terms of limitations in the theory and in the practical use of the models....
Clustering properties of dynamical dark energy models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Avelino, P. P.; Beca, L. M. G.; Martins, C. J. A. P.
2008-01-01
We provide a generic but physically clear discussion of the clustering properties of dark energy models. We explicitly show that in quintessence-type models the dark energy fluctuations, on scales smaller than the Hubble radius, are of the order of the perturbations to the Newtonian gravitational potential, hence necessarily small on cosmological scales. Moreover, comparable fluctuations are associated with different gauge choices. We also demonstrate that the often used homogeneous approximation is unrealistic, and that the so-called dark energy mutation is a trivial artifact of an effective, single fluid description. Finally, we discuss the particular case where the dark energy fluid is nonminimally coupled to dark matter
Random-growth urban model with geographical fitness
Kii, Masanobu; Akimoto, Keigo; Doi, Kenji
2012-12-01
This paper formulates a random-growth urban model with a notion of geographical fitness. Using techniques of complex-network theory, we study our system as a type of preferential-attachment model with fitness, and we analyze its macro behavior to clarify the properties of the city-size distributions it predicts. First, restricting the geographical fitness to take positive values and using a continuum approach, we show that the city-size distributions predicted by our model asymptotically approach Pareto distributions with coefficients greater than unity. Then, allowing the geographical fitness to take negative values, we perform local coefficient analysis to show that the predicted city-size distributions can deviate from Pareto distributions, as is often observed in actual city-size distributions. As a result, the model we propose can generate a generic class of city-size distributions, including but not limited to Pareto distributions. For applications to city-population projections, our simple model requires randomness only when new cities are created, not during their subsequent growth. This property leads to smooth trajectories of city population growth, in contrast to other models using Gibrat’s law. In addition, a discrete form of our dynamical equations can be used to estimate past city populations based on present-day data; this fact allows quantitative assessment of the performance of our model. Further study is needed to determine appropriate formulas for the geographical fitness.
Least squares estimation in a simple random coefficient autoregressive model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Johansen, S; Lange, T
2013-01-01
The question we discuss is whether a simple random coefficient autoregressive model with infinite variance can create the long swings, or persistence, which are observed in many macroeconomic variables. The model is defined by yt=stρyt−1+εt,t=1,…,n, where st is an i.i.d. binary variable with p...... we prove the curious result that View the MathML source. The proof applies the notion of a tail index of sums of positive random variables with infinite variance to find the order of magnitude of View the MathML source and View the MathML source and hence the limit of View the MathML source...
The transverse spin-1 Ising model with random interactions
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bouziane, Touria [Department of Physics, Faculty of Sciences, University of Moulay Ismail, B.P. 11201 Meknes (Morocco)], E-mail: touria582004@yahoo.fr; Saber, Mohammed [Department of Physics, Faculty of Sciences, University of Moulay Ismail, B.P. 11201 Meknes (Morocco); Dpto. Fisica Aplicada I, EUPDS (EUPDS), Plaza Europa, 1, San Sebastian 20018 (Spain)
2009-01-15
The phase diagrams of the transverse spin-1 Ising model with random interactions are investigated using a new technique in the effective field theory that employs a probability distribution within the framework of the single-site cluster theory based on the use of exact Ising spin identities. A model is adopted in which the nearest-neighbor exchange couplings are independent random variables distributed according to the law P(J{sub ij})=p{delta}(J{sub ij}-J)+(1-p){delta}(J{sub ij}-{alpha}J). General formulae, applicable to lattices with coordination number N, are given. Numerical results are presented for a simple cubic lattice. The possible reentrant phenomenon displayed by the system due to the competitive effects between exchange interactions occurs for the appropriate range of the parameter {alpha}.
Random unitary evolution model of quantum Darwinism with pure decoherence
Balanesković, Nenad
2015-10-01
We study the behavior of Quantum Darwinism [W.H. Zurek, Nat. Phys. 5, 181 (2009)] within the iterative, random unitary operations qubit-model of pure decoherence [J. Novotný, G. Alber, I. Jex, New J. Phys. 13, 053052 (2011)]. We conclude that Quantum Darwinism, which describes the quantum mechanical evolution of an open system S from the point of view of its environment E, is not a generic phenomenon, but depends on the specific form of input states and on the type of S-E-interactions. Furthermore, we show that within the random unitary model the concept of Quantum Darwinism enables one to explicitly construct and specify artificial input states of environment E that allow to store information about an open system S of interest with maximal efficiency.
Dual resonant structure for energy harvesting from random vibration sources at low frequency
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shanshan Li
2016-01-01
Full Text Available We introduce a design with dual resonant structure which can harvest energy from random vibration sources at low frequency range. The dual resonant structure consists of two spring-mass subsystems with different frequency responses, which exhibit strong coupling and broad bandwidth when the two masses collide with each other. Experiments with piezoelectric elements show that the energy harvesting device with dual resonant structure can generate higher power output than the sum of the two separate devices from random vibration sources.
Robustness of regularities for energy centroids in the presence of random interactions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhao, Y.M.; Arima, A.; Yoshida, N.; Ogawa, K.; Yoshinaga, N.; Kota, V. K. B.
2005-01-01
In this paper we study energy centroids such as those with fixed spin and isospin and those with fixed irreducible representations for both bosons and fermions, in the presence of random two-body and/or three-body interactions. Our results show that regularities of energy centroids of fixed-spin states reported in earlier works are very robust in these more complicated cases. We suggest that these behaviors might be intrinsic features of quantum many-body systems interacting by random forces
Agent based modeling of energy networks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gonzalez de Durana, José María; Barambones, Oscar; Kremers, Enrique; Varga, Liz
2014-01-01
Highlights: • A new approach for energy network modeling is designed and tested. • The agent-based approach is general and no technology dependent. • The models can be easily extended. • The range of applications encompasses from small to large energy infrastructures. - Abstract: Attempts to model any present or future power grid face a huge challenge because a power grid is a complex system, with feedback and multi-agent behaviors, integrated by generation, distribution, storage and consumption systems, using various control and automation computing systems to manage electricity flows. Our approach to modeling is to build upon an established model of the low voltage electricity network which is tested and proven, by extending it to a generalized energy model. But, in order to address the crucial issues of energy efficiency, additional processes like energy conversion and storage, and further energy carriers, such as gas, heat, etc., besides the traditional electrical one, must be considered. Therefore a more powerful model, provided with enhanced nodes or conversion points, able to deal with multidimensional flows, is being required. This article addresses the issue of modeling a local multi-carrier energy network. This problem can be considered as an extension of modeling a low voltage distribution network located at some urban or rural geographic area. But instead of using an external power flow analysis package to do the power flow calculations, as used in electric networks, in this work we integrate a multiagent algorithm to perform the task, in a concurrent way to the other simulation tasks, and not only for the electric fluid but also for a number of additional energy carriers. As the model is mainly focused in system operation, generation and load models are not developed
Gravitational lensing by eigenvalue distributions of random matrix models
Martínez Alonso, Luis; Medina, Elena
2018-05-01
We propose to use eigenvalue densities of unitary random matrix ensembles as mass distributions in gravitational lensing. The corresponding lens equations reduce to algebraic equations in the complex plane which can be treated analytically. We prove that these models can be applied to describe lensing by systems of edge-on galaxies. We illustrate our analysis with the Gaussian and the quartic unitary matrix ensembles.
Random resistor network model of minimal conductivity in graphene.
Cheianov, Vadim V; Fal'ko, Vladimir I; Altshuler, Boris L; Aleiner, Igor L
2007-10-26
Transport in undoped graphene is related to percolating current patterns in the networks of n- and p-type regions reflecting the strong bipolar charge density fluctuations. Finite transparency of the p-n junctions is vital in establishing the macroscopic conductivity. We propose a random resistor network model to analyze scaling dependencies of the conductance on the doping and disorder, the quantum magnetoresistance and the corresponding dephasing rate.
Levy Random Bridges and the Modelling of Financial Information
Hoyle, Edward; Hughston, Lane P.; Macrina, Andrea
2009-01-01
The information-based asset-pricing framework of Brody, Hughston and Macrina (BHM) is extended to include a wider class of models for market information. In the BHM framework, each asset is associated with a collection of random cash flows. The price of the asset is the sum of the discounted conditional expectations of the cash flows. The conditional expectations are taken with respect to a filtration generated by a set of "information processes". The information processes carry imperfect inf...
Social aggregation in pea aphids: experiment and random walk modeling.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Christa Nilsen
Full Text Available From bird flocks to fish schools and ungulate herds to insect swarms, social biological aggregations are found across the natural world. An ongoing challenge in the mathematical modeling of aggregations is to strengthen the connection between models and biological data by quantifying the rules that individuals follow. We model aggregation of the pea aphid, Acyrthosiphon pisum. Specifically, we conduct experiments to track the motion of aphids walking in a featureless circular arena in order to deduce individual-level rules. We observe that each aphid transitions stochastically between a moving and a stationary state. Moving aphids follow a correlated random walk. The probabilities of motion state transitions, as well as the random walk parameters, depend strongly on distance to an aphid's nearest neighbor. For large nearest neighbor distances, when an aphid is essentially isolated, its motion is ballistic with aphids moving faster, turning less, and being less likely to stop. In contrast, for short nearest neighbor distances, aphids move more slowly, turn more, and are more likely to become stationary; this behavior constitutes an aggregation mechanism. From the experimental data, we estimate the state transition probabilities and correlated random walk parameters as a function of nearest neighbor distance. With the individual-level model established, we assess whether it reproduces the macroscopic patterns of movement at the group level. To do so, we consider three distributions, namely distance to nearest neighbor, angle to nearest neighbor, and percentage of population moving at any given time. For each of these three distributions, we compare our experimental data to the output of numerical simulations of our nearest neighbor model, and of a control model in which aphids do not interact socially. Our stochastic, social nearest neighbor model reproduces salient features of the experimental data that are not captured by the control.
Modeling international trends in energy efficiency
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Stern, David I.
2012-01-01
I use a stochastic production frontier to model energy efficiency trends in 85 countries over a 37-year period. Differences in energy efficiency across countries are modeled as a stochastic function of explanatory variables and I estimate the model using the cross-section of time-averaged data, so that no structure is imposed on technological change over time. Energy efficiency is measured using a new energy distance function approach. The country using the least energy per unit output, given its mix of outputs and inputs, defines the global production frontier. A country's relative energy efficiency is given by its distance from the frontier—the ratio of its actual energy use to the minimum required energy use, ceteris paribus. Energy efficiency is higher in countries with, inter alia, higher total factor productivity, undervalued currencies, and smaller fossil fuel reserves and it converges over time across countries. Globally, technological change was the most important factor counteracting the energy-use and carbon-emissions increasing effects of economic growth.
Modelling energy utilisation in broiler breeder hens.
Rabello, C B V; Sakomura, N K; Longo, F A; Couto, H P; Pacheco, C R; Fernandes, J B K
2006-10-01
1. The objective of this study was to determine a metabolisable energy (ME) requirement model for broiler breeder hens. The influence of temperature on ME requirements for maintenance was determined in experiments conducted in three environmental rooms with temperatures kept constant at 13, 21 and 30 degrees C using a comparative slaughter technique. The energy requirements for weight gain were determined based upon body energy content and efficiency of energy utilisation for weight gain. The energy requirements for egg production were determined on the basis of egg energy content and efficiency of energy deposition in the eggs. 2. The following model was developed using these results: ME = kgW0.75(806.53-26.45T + 0.50T2) + 31.90G + 10.04EM, where kgW0.75 is body weight (kg) raised to the power 0.75, T is temperature ( degrees C), G is weight gain (g) and EM is egg mass (g). 3. A feeding trial was conducted using 400 Hubbard Hi-Yield broiler breeder hens and 40 Peterson males from 31 to 46 weeks of age in order to compare use of the model with a recommended feeding programme for this strain of bird. The application of the model in breeder hens provided good productive and reproductive performance and better results in feed and energy conversion than in hens fed according to strain recommendation. In conclusion, the model evaluated predicted an ME intake which matched breeder hens' requirements.
Energy models for commercial energy prediction and substitution of renewable energy sources
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Iniyan, S.; Suganthi, L.; Samuel, Anand A.
2006-01-01
In this paper, three models have been projected namely Modified Econometric Mathematical (MEM) model, Mathematical Programming Energy-Economy-Environment (MPEEE) model, and Optimal Renewable Energy Mathematical (OREM) model. The actual demand for coal, oil and electricity is predicted using the MEM model based on economic, technological and environmental factors. The results were used in the MPEEE model, which determines the optimum allocation of commercial energy sources based on environmental limitations. The gap between the actual energy demand from the MEM model and optimal energy use from the MPEEE model, has to be met by the renewable energy sources. The study develops an OREM model that would facilitate effective utilization of renewable energy sources in India, based on cost, efficiency, social acceptance, reliability, potential and demand. The economic variations in solar energy systems and inclusion of environmental constraint are also analyzed with OREM model. The OREM model will help policy makers in the formulation and implementation of strategies concerning renewable energy sources in India for the next two decades
CONSISTENCY UNDER SAMPLING OF EXPONENTIAL RANDOM GRAPH MODELS.
Shalizi, Cosma Rohilla; Rinaldo, Alessandro
2013-04-01
The growing availability of network data and of scientific interest in distributed systems has led to the rapid development of statistical models of network structure. Typically, however, these are models for the entire network, while the data consists only of a sampled sub-network. Parameters for the whole network, which is what is of interest, are estimated by applying the model to the sub-network. This assumes that the model is consistent under sampling , or, in terms of the theory of stochastic processes, that it defines a projective family. Focusing on the popular class of exponential random graph models (ERGMs), we show that this apparently trivial condition is in fact violated by many popular and scientifically appealing models, and that satisfying it drastically limits ERGM's expressive power. These results are actually special cases of more general results about exponential families of dependent random variables, which we also prove. Using such results, we offer easily checked conditions for the consistency of maximum likelihood estimation in ERGMs, and discuss some possible constructive responses.
Total energy calculations from self-energy models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sanchez-Friera, P.
2001-06-01
Density-functional theory is a powerful method to calculate total energies of large systems of interacting electrons. The usefulness of this method, however, is limited by the fact that an approximation is required for the exchange-correlation energy. Currently used approximations (LDA and GGA) are not sufficiently accurate in many physical problems, as for instance the study of chemical reactions. It has been shown that exchange-correlation effects can be accurately described via the self-energy operator in the context of many-body perturbation theory. This is, however, a computationally very demanding approach. In this thesis a new scheme for calculating total energies is proposed, which combines elements from many-body perturbation theory and density-functional theory. The exchange-correlation energy functional is built from a simplified model of the self-energy, that nevertheless retains the main features of the exact operator. The model is built in such way that the computational effort is not significantly increased with respect to that required in a typical density-functional theory calculation. (author)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mishchenko, Michael I.; Dlugach, Janna M.; Yurkin, Maxim A.; Bi, Lei; Cairns, Brian; Liu, Li; Panetta, R. Lee; Travis, Larry D.; Yang, Ping; Zakharova, Nadezhda T.
2016-01-01
A discrete random medium is an object in the form of a finite volume of a vacuum or a homogeneous material medium filled with quasi-randomly and quasi-uniformly distributed discrete macroscopic impurities called small particles. Such objects are ubiquitous in natural and artificial environments. They are often characterized by analyzing theoretically the results of laboratory, in situ, or remote-sensing measurements of the scattering of light and other electromagnetic radiation. Electromagnetic scattering and absorption by particles can also affect the energy budget of a discrete random medium and hence various ambient physical and chemical processes. In either case electromagnetic scattering must be modeled in terms of appropriate optical observables, i.e., quadratic or bilinear forms in the field that quantify the reading of a relevant optical instrument or the electromagnetic energy budget. It is generally believed that time-harmonic Maxwell’s equations can accurately describe elastic electromagnetic scattering by macroscopic particulate media that change in time much more slowly than the incident electromagnetic field. However, direct solutions of these equations for discrete random media had been impracticable until quite recently. This has led to a widespread use of various phenomenological approaches in situations when their very applicability can be questioned. Recently, however, a new branch of physical optics has emerged wherein electromagnetic scattering by discrete and discretely heterogeneous random media is modeled directly by using analytical or numerically exact computer solutions of the Maxwell equations. Therefore, the main objective of this Report is to formulate the general theoretical framework of electromagnetic scattering by discrete random media rooted in the Maxwell–Lorentz electromagnetics and discuss its immediate analytical and numerical consequences. Starting from the microscopic Maxwell–Lorentz equations, we trace the development
Mishchenko, Michael I.; Dlugach, Janna M.; Yurkin, Maxim A.; Bi, Lei; Cairns, Brian; Liu, Li; Panetta, R. Lee; Travis, Larry D.; Yang, Ping; Zakharova, Nadezhda T.
2018-01-01
A discrete random medium is an object in the form of a finite volume of a vacuum or a homogeneous material medium filled with quasi-randomly and quasi-uniformly distributed discrete macroscopic impurities called small particles. Such objects are ubiquitous in natural and artificial environments. They are often characterized by analyzing theoretically the results of laboratory, in situ, or remote-sensing measurements of the scattering of light and other electromagnetic radiation. Electromagnetic scattering and absorption by particles can also affect the energy budget of a discrete random medium and hence various ambient physical and chemical processes. In either case electromagnetic scattering must be modeled in terms of appropriate optical observables, i.e., quadratic or bilinear forms in the field that quantify the reading of a relevant optical instrument or the electromagnetic energy budget. It is generally believed that time-harmonic Maxwell’s equations can accurately describe elastic electromagnetic scattering by macroscopic particulate media that change in time much more slowly than the incident electromagnetic field. However, direct solutions of these equations for discrete random media had been impracticable until quite recently. This has led to a widespread use of various phenomenological approaches in situations when their very applicability can be questioned. Recently, however, a new branch of physical optics has emerged wherein electromagnetic scattering by discrete and discretely heterogeneous random media is modeled directly by using analytical or numerically exact computer solutions of the Maxwell equations. Therefore, the main objective of this Report is to formulate the general theoretical framework of electromagnetic scattering by discrete random media rooted in the Maxwell–Lorentz electromagnetics and discuss its immediate analytical and numerical consequences. Starting from the microscopic Maxwell–Lorentz equations, we trace the development
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Mishchenko, Michael I., E-mail: michael.i.mishchenko@nasa.gov [NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025 (United States); Dlugach, Janna M. [Main Astronomical Observatory of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 27 Zabolotny Str., 03680, Kyiv (Ukraine); Yurkin, Maxim A. [Voevodsky Institute of Chemical Kinetics and Combustion, SB RAS, Institutskaya str. 3, 630090 Novosibirsk (Russian Federation); Novosibirsk State University, Pirogova 2, 630090 Novosibirsk (Russian Federation); Bi, Lei [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A& M University, College Station, TX 77843 (United States); Cairns, Brian [NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025 (United States); Liu, Li [NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025 (United States); Columbia University, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025 (United States); Panetta, R. Lee [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A& M University, College Station, TX 77843 (United States); Travis, Larry D. [NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025 (United States); Yang, Ping [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A& M University, College Station, TX 77843 (United States); Zakharova, Nadezhda T. [Trinnovim LLC, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025 (United States)
2016-05-16
A discrete random medium is an object in the form of a finite volume of a vacuum or a homogeneous material medium filled with quasi-randomly and quasi-uniformly distributed discrete macroscopic impurities called small particles. Such objects are ubiquitous in natural and artificial environments. They are often characterized by analyzing theoretically the results of laboratory, in situ, or remote-sensing measurements of the scattering of light and other electromagnetic radiation. Electromagnetic scattering and absorption by particles can also affect the energy budget of a discrete random medium and hence various ambient physical and chemical processes. In either case electromagnetic scattering must be modeled in terms of appropriate optical observables, i.e., quadratic or bilinear forms in the field that quantify the reading of a relevant optical instrument or the electromagnetic energy budget. It is generally believed that time-harmonic Maxwell’s equations can accurately describe elastic electromagnetic scattering by macroscopic particulate media that change in time much more slowly than the incident electromagnetic field. However, direct solutions of these equations for discrete random media had been impracticable until quite recently. This has led to a widespread use of various phenomenological approaches in situations when their very applicability can be questioned. Recently, however, a new branch of physical optics has emerged wherein electromagnetic scattering by discrete and discretely heterogeneous random media is modeled directly by using analytical or numerically exact computer solutions of the Maxwell equations. Therefore, the main objective of this Report is to formulate the general theoretical framework of electromagnetic scattering by discrete random media rooted in the Maxwell–Lorentz electromagnetics and discuss its immediate analytical and numerical consequences. Starting from the microscopic Maxwell–Lorentz equations, we trace the development
Mishchenko, Michael I.; Dlugach, Janna M.; Yurkin, Maxim A.; Bi, Lei; Cairns, Brian; Liu, Li; Panetta, R. Lee; Travis, Larry D.; Yang, Ping; Zakharova, Nadezhda T.
2016-01-01
A discrete random medium is an object in the form of a finite volume of a vacuum or a homogeneous material medium filled with quasi-randomly and quasi-uniformly distributed discrete macroscopic impurities called small particles. Such objects are ubiquitous in natural and artificial environments. They are often characterized by analyzing theoretically the results of laboratory, in situ, or remote-sensing measurements of the scattering of light and other electromagnetic radiation. Electromagnetic scattering and absorption by particles can also affect the energy budget of a discrete random medium and hence various ambient physical and chemical processes. In either case electromagnetic scattering must be modeled in terms of appropriate optical observables, i.e., quadratic or bilinear forms in the field that quantify the reading of a relevant optical instrument or the electromagnetic energy budget. It is generally believed that time-harmonic Maxwell's equations can accurately describe elastic electromagnetic scattering by macroscopic particulate media that change in time much more slowly than the incident electromagnetic field. However, direct solutions of these equations for discrete random media had been impracticable until quite recently. This has led to a widespread use of various phenomenological approaches in situations when their very applicability can be questioned. Recently, however, a new branch of physical optics has emerged wherein electromagnetic scattering by discrete and discretely heterogeneous random media is modeled directly by using analytical or numerically exact computer solutions of the Maxwell equations. Therefore, the main objective of this Report is to formulate the general theoretical framework of electromagnetic scattering by discrete random media rooted in the Maxwell- Lorentz electromagnetics and discuss its immediate analytical and numerical consequences. Starting from the microscopic Maxwell-Lorentz equations, we trace the development of
On a Stochastic Failure Model under Random Shocks
Cha, Ji Hwan
2013-02-01
In most conventional settings, the events caused by an external shock are initiated at the moments of its occurrence. In this paper, we study a new classes of shock model, where each shock from a nonhomogeneous Poisson processes can trigger a failure of a system not immediately, as in classical extreme shock models, but with delay of some random time. We derive the corresponding survival and failure rate functions. Furthermore, we study the limiting behaviour of the failure rate function where it is applicable.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Huibing Hao
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Light emitting diode (LED lamp has attracted increasing interest in the field of lighting systems due to its low energy and long lifetime. For different functions (i.e., illumination and color, it may have two or more performance characteristics. When the multiple performance characteristics are dependent, it creates a challenging problem to accurately analyze the system reliability. In this paper, we assume that the system has two performance characteristics, and each performance characteristic is governed by a random effects Gamma process where the random effects can capture the unit to unit differences. The dependency of performance characteristics is described by a Frank copula function. Via the copula function, the reliability assessment model is proposed. Considering the model is so complicated and analytically intractable, the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC method is used to estimate the unknown parameters. A numerical example about actual LED lamps data is given to demonstrate the usefulness and validity of the proposed model and method.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Perez Curbelo, J.; Rosales, J.; Garcia, L.; Garcia, C.; Brayner, C.
2013-01-01
The pebble bed nuclear reactor is one of the main candidates for the next generation of nuclear power plants. In pebble bed type HTRs, the fuel is contained within graphite pebbles in the form of TRISO particles, which form a randomly packed bed inside a graphite-walled cylindrical cavity. Pebble bed reactors (PBR) offer the opportunity to meet the sustainability requirements, such as nuclear safety, economic competitiveness, proliferation resistance and a minimal production of radioactive waste. In order to simulate PBRs correctly, the double heterogeneity of the system must be considered. It consists on randomly located pebbles into the core and TRISO particles into the fuel pebbles. These features are often neglected due to the difficulty to model with MCPN code. The main reason is that there is a limited number of cells and surfaces to be defined. In this study, a computational tool which allows getting a new geometrical model of fuel pebbles for neutronic calculations with MCNPX code, was developed. The heterogeneity of system is considered, and also the randomly located TRISO particles inside the pebble. Four proposed fuel pebble models were compared regarding their effective multiplication factor and energy liberation profiles. Such models are: Homogeneous Pebble, Five Zone Homogeneous Pebble, Detailed Geometry, and Randomly Detailed Geometry. (Author)
Impacts of Model Building Energy Codes
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Sivaraman, Deepak [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Elliott, Douglas B. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Liu, Bing [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Bartlett, Rosemarie [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
2016-10-31
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Building Energy Codes Program (BECP) periodically evaluates national and state-level impacts associated with energy codes in residential and commercial buildings. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), funded by DOE, conducted an assessment of the prospective impacts of national model building energy codes from 2010 through 2040. A previous PNNL study evaluated the impact of the Building Energy Codes Program; this study looked more broadly at overall code impacts. This report describes the methodology used for the assessment and presents the impacts in terms of energy savings, consumer cost savings, and reduced CO_{2} emissions at the state level and at aggregated levels. This analysis does not represent all potential savings from energy codes in the U.S. because it excludes several states which have codes which are fundamentally different from the national model energy codes or which do not have state-wide codes. Energy codes follow a three-phase cycle that starts with the development of a new model code, proceeds with the adoption of the new code by states and local jurisdictions, and finishes when buildings comply with the code. The development of new model code editions creates the potential for increased energy savings. After a new model code is adopted, potential savings are realized in the field when new buildings (or additions and alterations) are constructed to comply with the new code. Delayed adoption of a model code and incomplete compliance with the code’s requirements erode potential savings. The contributions of all three phases are crucial to the overall impact of codes, and are considered in this assessment.
Directory of energy information administration models 1995
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
NONE
1995-07-13
This updated directory has been published annually; after this issue, it will be published only biennially. The Disruption Impact Simulator Model in use by EIA is included. Model descriptions have been updated according to revised documentation approved during the past year. This directory contains descriptions about each model, including title, acronym, purpose, followed by more detailed information on characteristics, uses, and requirements. Sources for additional information are identified. Included are 37 EIA models active as of February 1, 1995. The first group is the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) models. The second group is all other EIA models that are not part of NEMS. Appendix A identifies major EIA modeling systems and the models within these systems. Appendix B is a summary of the `Annual Energy Outlook` Forecasting System.
Directory of Energy Information Administration Models 1993
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
1993-07-06
This directory contains descriptions about each model, including the title, acronym, purpose, followed by more detailed information on characteristics, uses, and requirements. Sources for additional information are identified. Included in this directory are 35 EIA models active as of May 1, 1993. Models that run on personal computers are identified by ``PC`` as part of the acronym. EIA is developing new models, a National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), and is making changes to existing models to include new technologies, environmental issues, conservation, and renewables, as well as extend forecast horizon. Other parts of the Department are involved in this modeling effort. A fully operational model is planned which will integrate completed segments of NEMS for its first official application--preparation of EIA`s Annual Energy Outlook 1994. Abstracts for the new models will be included in next year`s version of this directory.
World Energy Projection System model documentation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hutzler, M.J.; Anderson, A.T.
1997-09-01
The World Energy Projection System (WEPS) was developed by the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting within the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the independent statistical and analytical agency of the US Department of Energy. WEPS is an integrated set of personal computer based spreadsheets containing data compilations, assumption specifications, descriptive analysis procedures, and projection models. The WEPS accounting framework incorporates projections from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product GDP), and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by natural gas, coal, and renewable energy sources (hydroelectricity, geothermal, solar, wind, biomass, and other renewable resources). Projections produced by WEPS are published in the annual report, International Energy Outlook. This report documents the structure and procedures incorporated in the 1998 version of the WEPS model. It has been written to provide an overview of the structure of the system and technical details about the operation of each component of the model for persons who wish to know how WEPS projections are produced by EIA
QCD parton model at collider energies
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ellis, R.K.
1984-09-01
Using the example of vector boson production, the application of the QCD improved parton model at collider energies is reviewed. The reliability of the extrapolation to SSC energies is assessed. Predictions at √S = 0.54 TeV are compared with data. 21 references
World Energy Projection System model documentation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hutzler, M.J.; Anderson, A.T.
1997-09-01
The World Energy Projection System (WEPS) was developed by the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting within the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the independent statistical and analytical agency of the US Department of Energy. WEPS is an integrated set of personal computer based spreadsheets containing data compilations, assumption specifications, descriptive analysis procedures, and projection models. The WEPS accounting framework incorporates projections from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product GDP), and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by natural gas, coal, and renewable energy sources (hydroelectricity, geothermal, solar, wind, biomass, and other renewable resources). Projections produced by WEPS are published in the annual report, International Energy Outlook. This report documents the structure and procedures incorporated in the 1998 version of the WEPS model. It has been written to provide an overview of the structure of the system and technical details about the operation of each component of the model for persons who wish to know how WEPS projections are produced by EIA.
Energy and development : A modelling approach
van Ruijven, B.J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304834521
2008-01-01
Rapid economic growth of developing countries like India and China implies that these countries become important actors in the global energy system. Examples of this impact are the present day oil shortages and rapidly increasing emissions of greenhouse gases. Global energy models are used explore
Modelling household responses to energy efficiency interventions ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
2010-11-01
Nov 1, 2010 ... to interventions aimed at reducing energy consumption (specifically the use of .... 4 A system dynamics model of electricity consumption ...... to base comparisons on overly detailed quantitative predictions of behaviour.
Modelling the energy transition in cities
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Huber, Felix [Wuppertal Univ. (Germany). Dept. of Civil Engineering; Schwarze, Bjoern; Spiekermann, Klaus; Wegener, Michael [Spiekermann und Wegener Urban and Regional Research, Dortmund (Germany)
2013-09-01
The history of cities is a history of energy transitions. In the medieval city heating and cooking occurred with wood and peat. The growth of the industrial city in the 19th century was built on coal and electricity. The sprawling metropolis of the 20th century was made possible by oil and gas. How will the city of the 21st century look after the next energy transition from fossil to renewable energy? This paper reports on the extension of an urban land-use transport interaction model to a model of the energy transition in the Ruhr Area, a five-million agglomeration in Germany. The paper presents the planned model extensions and how they are to be integrated into the model and shows first preliminary results.
Cheung, Mike W.-L.; Cheung, Shu Fai
2016-01-01
Meta-analytic structural equation modeling (MASEM) combines the techniques of meta-analysis and structural equation modeling for the purpose of synthesizing correlation or covariance matrices and fitting structural equation models on the pooled correlation or covariance matrix. Both fixed-effects and random-effects models can be defined in MASEM.…
Discrete random walk models for space-time fractional diffusion
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gorenflo, Rudolf; Mainardi, Francesco; Moretti, Daniele; Pagnini, Gianni; Paradisi, Paolo
2002-01-01
A physical-mathematical approach to anomalous diffusion may be based on generalized diffusion equations (containing derivatives of fractional order in space or/and time) and related random walk models. By space-time fractional diffusion equation we mean an evolution equation obtained from the standard linear diffusion equation by replacing the second-order space derivative with a Riesz-Feller derivative of order α is part of (0,2] and skewness θ (moduleθ≤{α,2-α}), and the first-order time derivative with a Caputo derivative of order β is part of (0,1]. Such evolution equation implies for the flux a fractional Fick's law which accounts for spatial and temporal non-locality. The fundamental solution (for the Cauchy problem) of the fractional diffusion equation can be interpreted as a probability density evolving in time of a peculiar self-similar stochastic process that we view as a generalized diffusion process. By adopting appropriate finite-difference schemes of solution, we generate models of random walk discrete in space and time suitable for simulating random variables whose spatial probability density evolves in time according to this fractional diffusion equation
Random matrices and the six-vertex model
Bleher, Pavel
2013-01-01
This book provides a detailed description of the Riemann-Hilbert approach (RH approach) to the asymptotic analysis of both continuous and discrete orthogonal polynomials, and applications to random matrix models as well as to the six-vertex model. The RH approach was an important ingredient in the proofs of universality in unitary matrix models. This book gives an introduction to the unitary matrix models and discusses bulk and edge universality. The six-vertex model is an exactly solvable two-dimensional model in statistical physics, and thanks to the Izergin-Korepin formula for the model with domain wall boundary conditions, its partition function matches that of a unitary matrix model with nonpolynomial interaction. The authors introduce in this book the six-vertex model and include a proof of the Izergin-Korepin formula. Using the RH approach, they explicitly calculate the leading and subleading terms in the thermodynamic asymptotic behavior of the partition function of the six-vertex model with domain wa...
Complex networks-based energy-efficient evolution model for wireless sensor networks
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Zhu Hailin [Beijing Key Laboratory of Intelligent Telecommunications Software and Multimedia, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 106, Beijing 100876 (China)], E-mail: zhuhailin19@gmail.com; Luo Hong [Beijing Key Laboratory of Intelligent Telecommunications Software and Multimedia, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 106, Beijing 100876 (China); Peng Haipeng; Li Lixiang; Luo Qun [Information Secure Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China)
2009-08-30
Based on complex networks theory, we present two self-organized energy-efficient models for wireless sensor networks in this paper. The first model constructs the wireless sensor networks according to the connectivity and remaining energy of each sensor node, thus it can produce scale-free networks which have a performance of random error tolerance. In the second model, we not only consider the remaining energy, but also introduce the constraint of links to each node. This model can make the energy consumption of the whole network more balanced. Finally, we present the numerical experiments of the two models.
Complex networks-based energy-efficient evolution model for wireless sensor networks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhu Hailin; Luo Hong; Peng Haipeng; Li Lixiang; Luo Qun
2009-01-01
Based on complex networks theory, we present two self-organized energy-efficient models for wireless sensor networks in this paper. The first model constructs the wireless sensor networks according to the connectivity and remaining energy of each sensor node, thus it can produce scale-free networks which have a performance of random error tolerance. In the second model, we not only consider the remaining energy, but also introduce the constraint of links to each node. This model can make the energy consumption of the whole network more balanced. Finally, we present the numerical experiments of the two models.
Marginal and Random Intercepts Models for Longitudinal Binary Data with Examples from Criminology
Long, Jeffrey D.; Loeber, Rolf; Farrington, David P.
2009-01-01
Two models for the analysis of longitudinal binary data are discussed: the marginal model and the random intercepts model. In contrast to the linear mixed model (LMM), the two models for binary data are not subsumed under a single hierarchical model. The marginal model provides group-level information whereas the random intercepts model provides…
Universality of correlation functions in random matrix models of QCD
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jackson, A.D.; Sener, M.K.; Verbaarschot, J.J.M.
1997-01-01
We demonstrate the universality of the spectral correlation functions of a QCD inspired random matrix model that consists of a random part having the chiral structure of the QCD Dirac operator and a deterministic part which describes a schematic temperature dependence. We calculate the correlation functions analytically using the technique of Itzykson-Zuber integrals for arbitrary complex supermatrices. An alternative exact calculation for arbitrary matrix size is given for the special case of zero temperature, and we reproduce the well-known Laguerre kernel. At finite temperature, the microscopic limit of the correlation functions are calculated in the saddle-point approximation. The main result of this paper is that the microscopic universality of correlation functions is maintained even though unitary invariance is broken by the addition of a deterministic matrix to the ensemble. (orig.)
Nonparametric Estimation of Distributions in Random Effects Models
Hart, Jeffrey D.
2011-01-01
We propose using minimum distance to obtain nonparametric estimates of the distributions of components in random effects models. A main setting considered is equivalent to having a large number of small datasets whose locations, and perhaps scales, vary randomly, but which otherwise have a common distribution. Interest focuses on estimating the distribution that is common to all datasets, knowledge of which is crucial in multiple testing problems where a location/scale invariant test is applied to every small dataset. A detailed algorithm for computing minimum distance estimates is proposed, and the usefulness of our methodology is illustrated by a simulation study and an analysis of microarray data. Supplemental materials for the article, including R-code and a dataset, are available online. © 2011 American Statistical Association.
Prediction of Geological Subsurfaces Based on Gaussian Random Field Models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Abrahamsen, Petter
1997-12-31
During the sixties, random functions became practical tools for predicting ore reserves with associated precision measures in the mining industry. This was the start of the geostatistical methods called kriging. These methods are used, for example, in petroleum exploration. This thesis reviews the possibilities for using Gaussian random functions in modelling of geological subsurfaces. It develops methods for including many sources of information and observations for precise prediction of the depth of geological subsurfaces. The simple properties of Gaussian distributions make it possible to calculate optimal predictors in the mean square sense. This is done in a discussion of kriging predictors. These predictors are then extended to deal with several subsurfaces simultaneously. It is shown how additional velocity observations can be used to improve predictions. The use of gradient data and even higher order derivatives are also considered and gradient data are used in an example. 130 refs., 44 figs., 12 tabs.
Ren, Xinguo; Tkatchenko, Alexandre; Rinke, Patrick; Scheffler, Matthias
2011-04-15
The random-phase approximation (RPA) for the electron correlation energy, combined with the exact-exchange (EX) energy, represents the state-of-the-art exchange-correlation functional within density-functional theory. However, the standard RPA practice--evaluating both the EX and the RPA correlation energies using Kohn-Sham (KS) orbitals from local or semilocal exchange-correlation functionals--leads to a systematic underbinding of molecules and solids. Here we demonstrate that this behavior can be corrected by adding a "single excitation" contribution, so far not included in the standard RPA scheme. A similar improvement can also be achieved by replacing the non-self-consistent EX total energy by the corresponding self-consistent Hartree-Fock total energy, while retaining the RPA correlation energy evaluated using KS orbitals. Both schemes achieve chemical accuracy for a standard benchmark set of noncovalent intermolecular interactions.
Modeling Innovations Advance Wind Energy Industry
2009-01-01
In 1981, Glenn Research Center scientist Dr. Larry Viterna developed a model that predicted certain elements of wind turbine performance with far greater accuracy than previous methods. The model was met with derision from others in the wind energy industry, but years later, Viterna discovered it had become the most widely used method of its kind, enabling significant wind energy technologies-like the fixed pitch turbines produced by manufacturers like Aerostar Inc. of Westport, Massachusetts-that are providing sustainable, climate friendly energy sources today.
Statistical Downscaling of Temperature with the Random Forest Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bo Pang
2017-01-01
Full Text Available The issues with downscaling the outputs of a global climate model (GCM to a regional scale that are appropriate to hydrological impact studies are investigated using the random forest (RF model, which has been shown to be superior for large dataset analysis and variable importance evaluation. The RF is proposed for downscaling daily mean temperature in the Pearl River basin in southern China. Four downscaling models were developed and validated by using the observed temperature series from 61 national stations and large-scale predictor variables derived from the National Center for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis dataset. The proposed RF downscaling model was compared to multiple linear regression, artificial neural network, and support vector machine models. Principal component analysis (PCA and partial correlation analysis (PAR were used in the predictor selection for the other models for a comprehensive study. It was shown that the model efficiency of the RF model was higher than that of the other models according to five selected criteria. By evaluating the predictor importance, the RF could choose the best predictor combination without using PCA and PAR. The results indicate that the RF is a feasible tool for the statistical downscaling of temperature.
Randomizing growing networks with a time-respecting null model
Ren, Zhuo-Ming; Mariani, Manuel Sebastian; Zhang, Yi-Cheng; Medo, Matúš
2018-05-01
Complex networks are often used to represent systems that are not static but grow with time: People make new friendships, new papers are published and refer to the existing ones, and so forth. To assess the statistical significance of measurements made on such networks, we propose a randomization methodology—a time-respecting null model—that preserves both the network's degree sequence and the time evolution of individual nodes' degree values. By preserving the temporal linking patterns of the analyzed system, the proposed model is able to factor out the effect of the system's temporal patterns on its structure. We apply the model to the citation network of Physical Review scholarly papers and the citation network of US movies. The model reveals that the two data sets are strikingly different with respect to their degree-degree correlations, and we discuss the important implications of this finding on the information provided by paradigmatic node centrality metrics such as indegree and Google's PageRank. The randomization methodology proposed here can be used to assess the significance of any structural property in growing networks, which could bring new insights into the problems where null models play a critical role, such as the detection of communities and network motifs.
Genetic evaluation of European quails by random regression models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Flaviana Miranda Gonçalves
2012-09-01
Full Text Available The objective of this study was to compare different random regression models, defined from different classes of heterogeneity of variance combined with different Legendre polynomial orders for the estimate of (covariance of quails. The data came from 28,076 observations of 4,507 female meat quails of the LF1 lineage. Quail body weights were determined at birth and 1, 14, 21, 28, 35 and 42 days of age. Six different classes of residual variance were fitted to Legendre polynomial functions (orders ranging from 2 to 6 to determine which model had the best fit to describe the (covariance structures as a function of time. According to the evaluated criteria (AIC, BIC and LRT, the model with six classes of residual variances and of sixth-order Legendre polynomial was the best fit. The estimated additive genetic variance increased from birth to 28 days of age, and dropped slightly from 35 to 42 days. The heritability estimates decreased along the growth curve and changed from 0.51 (1 day to 0.16 (42 days. Animal genetic and permanent environmental correlation estimates between weights and age classes were always high and positive, except for birth weight. The sixth order Legendre polynomial, along with the residual variance divided into six classes was the best fit for the growth rate curve of meat quails; therefore, they should be considered for breeding evaluation processes by random regression models.
Policy modeling for industrial energy use
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Worrell, Ernst; Park, Hi-Chun; Lee, Sang-Gon; Jung, Yonghun; Kato, Hiroyuki; Ramesohl, Stephan; Boyd, Gale; Eichhammer, Wolfgang; Nyboer, John; Jaccard, Mark; Nordqvist, Joakim; Boyd, Christopher; Klee, Howard; Anglani, Norma; Biermans, Gijs
2003-03-01
The international workshop on Policy Modeling for Industrial Energy Use was jointly organized by EETA (Professional Network for Engineering Economic Technology Analysis) and INEDIS (International Network for Energy Demand Analysis in the Industrial Sector). The workshop has helped to layout the needs and challenges to include policy more explicitly in energy-efficiency modeling. The current state-of-the-art models have a proven track record in forecasting future trends under conditions similar to those faced in the recent past. However, the future of energy policy in a climate-restrained world is likely to demand different and additional services to be provided by energy modelers. In this workshop some of the international models used to make energy consumption forecasts have been discussed as well as innovations to enable the modeling of policy scenarios. This was followed by the discussion of future challenges, new insights in the data needed to determine the inputs into energy model s, and methods to incorporate decision making and policy in the models. Based on the discussion the workshop participants came to the following conclusions and recommendations: Current energy models are already complex, and it is already difficult to collect the model inputs. Hence, new approaches should be transparent and not lead to extremely complex models that try to ''do everything''. The model structure will be determined by the questions that need to be answered. A good understanding of the decision making framework of policy makers and clear communication on the needs are essential to make any future energy modeling effort successful. There is a need to better understand the effects of policy on future energy use, emissions and the economy. To allow the inclusion of policy instruments in models, evaluation of programs and instruments is essential, and need to be included in the policy instrument design. Increased efforts are needed to better understand the
Deterministic models for energy-loss straggling
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Prinja, A.K.; Gleicher, F.; Dunham, G.; Morel, J.E.
1999-01-01
Inelastic ion interactions with target electrons are dominated by extremely small energy transfers that are difficult to resolve numerically. The continuous-slowing-down (CSD) approximation is then commonly employed, which, however, only preserves the mean energy loss per collision through the stopping power, S(E) = ∫ 0 ∞ dEprime (E minus Eprime) σ s (E → Eprime). To accommodate energy loss straggling, a Gaussian distribution with the correct mean-squared energy loss (akin to a Fokker-Planck approximation in energy) is commonly used in continuous-energy Monte Carlo codes. Although this model has the unphysical feature that ions can be upscattered, it nevertheless yields accurate results. A multigroup model for energy loss straggling was recently presented for use in multigroup Monte Carlo codes or in deterministic codes that use multigroup data. The method has the advantage that the mean and mean-squared energy loss are preserved without unphysical upscatter and hence is computationally efficient. Results for energy spectra compared extremely well with Gaussian distributions under the idealized conditions for which the Gaussian may be considered to be exact. Here, the authors present more consistent comparisons by extending the method to accommodate upscatter and, further, compare both methods with exact solutions obtained from an analog Monte Carlo simulation, for a straight-ahead transport problem
Holographic dark energy in the DGP model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cruz, Norman; Lepe, Samuel; Pena, Francisco; Avelino, Arturo
2012-01-01
The braneworld model proposed by Dvali, Gabadadze, and Porrati leads to an accelerated universe without cosmological constant or any other form of dark energy. Nevertheless, we have investigated the consequences of this model when an holographic dark energy is included, taking the Hubble scale as IR cutoff. We have found that the holographic dark energy leads to an accelerated flat universe (de Sitter-like expansion) for the two branches: ε=±1, of the DGP model. Nevertheless, in universes with no null curvature the dark energy presents an EoS corresponding to a phantom fluid during the present era and evolving to a de Sitter-like phase for future cosmic time. In the special case in which the holographic parameter c is equal to one we have found a sudden singularity in closed universes. In this case the expansion is decelerating. (orig.)
Holographic dark energy in the DGP model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cruz, Norman [Universidad de Santiago, Departamento de Fisica, Facultad de Ciencia, Santiago (Chile); Lepe, Samuel [Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Valparaiso, Instituto de Fisica, Facultad de Ciencias, Valparaiso (Chile); Pena, Francisco [Universidad de La Frontera, Departamento de Ciencias Fisicas, Facultad de Ingenieria, Ciencias y Administracion, Avda. Francisco Salazar 01145, Casilla 54-D, Temuco (Chile); Avelino, Arturo [Universidad de Guanajuato, Departamento de Fisica, DCI, Codigo Postal 37150, Leon, Guanajuato (Mexico)
2012-09-15
The braneworld model proposed by Dvali, Gabadadze, and Porrati leads to an accelerated universe without cosmological constant or any other form of dark energy. Nevertheless, we have investigated the consequences of this model when an holographic dark energy is included, taking the Hubble scale as IR cutoff. We have found that the holographic dark energy leads to an accelerated flat universe (de Sitter-like expansion) for the two branches: {epsilon}={+-}1, of the DGP model. Nevertheless, in universes with no null curvature the dark energy presents an EoS corresponding to a phantom fluid during the present era and evolving to a de Sitter-like phase for future cosmic time. In the special case in which the holographic parameter c is equal to one we have found a sudden singularity in closed universes. In this case the expansion is decelerating. (orig.)
Models for efficient integration of solar energy
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bacher, Peder
the available flexibility in the system. In the present thesis methods related to operation of solar energy systems and for optimal energy use in buildings are presented. Two approaches for forecasting of solar power based on numerical weather predictions (NWPs) are presented, they are applied to forecast......Efficient operation of energy systems with substantial amount of renewable energy production is becoming increasingly important. Renewables are dependent on the weather conditions and are therefore by nature volatile and uncontrollable, opposed to traditional energy production based on combustion....... The "smart grid" is a broad term for the technology for addressing the challenge of operating the grid with a large share of renewables. The "smart" part is formed by technologies, which models the properties of the systems and efficiently adapt the load to the volatile energy production, by using...
Free Energy Self-Averaging in Protein-Sized Random Heteropolymers
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chuang, Jeffrey; Grosberg, Alexander Yu.; Kardar, Mehran
2001-01-01
Current theories of heteropolymers are inherently macroscopic, but are applied to mesoscopic proteins. To compute the free energy over sequences, one assumes self-averaging -- a property established only in the macroscopic limit. By enumerating the states and energies of compact 18, 27, and 36mers on a lattice with an ensemble of random sequences, we test the self-averaging approximation. We find that fluctuations in the free energy between sequences are weak, and that self-averaging is valid at the scale of real proteins. The results validate sequence design methods which exponentially speed up computational design and simplify experimental realizations
Zero temperature landscape of the random sine-Gordon model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sanchez, A.; Bishop, A.R.; Cai, D.
1997-01-01
We present a preliminary summary of the zero temperature properties of the two-dimensional random sine-Gordon model of surface growth on disordered substrates. We found that the properties of this model can be accurately computed by using lattices of moderate size as the behavior of the model turns out to be independent of the size above certain length (∼ 128 x 128 lattices). Subsequently, we show that the behavior of the height difference correlation function is of (log r) 2 type up to a certain correlation length (ξ ∼ 20), which rules out predictions of log r behavior for all temperatures obtained by replica-variational techniques. Our results open the way to a better understanding of the complex landscape presented by this system, which has been the subject of very many (contradictory) analysis
Exponential random graph models for networks with community structure.
Fronczak, Piotr; Fronczak, Agata; Bujok, Maksymilian
2013-09-01
Although the community structure organization is an important characteristic of real-world networks, most of the traditional network models fail to reproduce the feature. Therefore, the models are useless as benchmark graphs for testing community detection algorithms. They are also inadequate to predict various properties of real networks. With this paper we intend to fill the gap. We develop an exponential random graph approach to networks with community structure. To this end we mainly built upon the idea of blockmodels. We consider both the classical blockmodel and its degree-corrected counterpart and study many of their properties analytically. We show that in the degree-corrected blockmodel, node degrees display an interesting scaling property, which is reminiscent of what is observed in real-world fractal networks. A short description of Monte Carlo simulations of the models is also given in the hope of being useful to others working in the field.
The Little-Hopfield model on a sparse random graph
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Castillo, I Perez; Skantzos, N S
2004-01-01
We study the Hopfield model on a random graph in scaling regimes where the average number of connections per neuron is a finite number and the spin dynamics is governed by a synchronous execution of the microscopic update rule (Little-Hopfield model). We solve this model within replica symmetry, and by using bifurcation analysis we prove that the spin-glass/paramagnetic and the retrieval/paramagnetic transition lines of our phase diagram are identical to those of sequential dynamics. The first-order retrieval/spin-glass transition line follows by direct evaluation of our observables using population dynamics. Within the accuracy of numerical precision and for sufficiently small values of the connectivity parameter we find that this line coincides with the corresponding sequential one. Comparison with simulation experiments shows excellent agreement
Pedestrian Walking Behavior Revealed through a Random Walk Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hui Xiong
2012-01-01
Full Text Available This paper applies method of continuous-time random walks for pedestrian flow simulation. In the model, pedestrians can walk forward or backward and turn left or right if there is no block. Velocities of pedestrian flow moving forward or diffusing are dominated by coefficients. The waiting time preceding each jump is assumed to follow an exponential distribution. To solve the model, a second-order two-dimensional partial differential equation, a high-order compact scheme with the alternating direction implicit method, is employed. In the numerical experiments, the walking domain of the first one is two-dimensional with two entrances and one exit, and that of the second one is two-dimensional with one entrance and one exit. The flows in both scenarios are one way. Numerical results show that the model can be used for pedestrian flow simulation.
Random isotropic one-dimensional XY-model
Gonçalves, L. L.; Vieira, A. P.
1998-01-01
The 1D isotropic s = ½XY-model ( N sites), with random exchange interaction in a transverse random field is considered. The random variables satisfy bimodal quenched distributions. The solution is obtained by using the Jordan-Wigner fermionization and a canonical transformation, reducing the problem to diagonalizing an N × N matrix, corresponding to a system of N noninteracting fermions. The calculations are performed numerically for N = 1000, and the field-induced magnetization at T = 0 is obtained by averaging the results for the different samples. For the dilute case, in the uniform field limit, the magnetization exhibits various discontinuities, which are the consequence of the existence of disconnected finite clusters distributed along the chain. Also in this limit, for finite exchange constants J A and J B, as the probability of J A varies from one to zero, the saturation field is seen to vary from Γ A to Γ B, where Γ A(Γ B) is the value of the saturation field for the pure case with exchange constant equal to J A(J B) .
Improved diagnostic model for estimating wind energy
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Endlich, R.M.; Lee, J.D.
1983-03-01
Because wind data are available only at scattered locations, a quantitative method is needed to estimate the wind resource at specific sites where wind energy generation may be economically feasible. This report describes a computer model that makes such estimates. The model uses standard weather reports and terrain heights in deriving wind estimates; the method of computation has been changed from what has been used previously. The performance of the current model is compared with that of the earlier version at three sites; estimates of wind energy at four new sites are also presented.
Urban, Lorien E.; Weber, Judith L.; Heyman, Melvin B.; Schichtl, Rachel L.; Verstraete, Sofia; Lowery, Nina S.; Das, Sai Krupa; Schleicher, Molly M.; Rogers, Gail; Economos, Christina; Masters, William A.; Roberts, Susan B.
2017-01-01
Background Excess energy intake from meals consumed away from home is implicated as a major contributor to obesity, and ~50% of US restaurants are individual or small-chain (non–chain) establishments that do not provide nutrition information. Objective To measure the energy content of frequently ordered meals in non–chain restaurants in three US locations, and compare with the energy content of meals from large-chain restaurants, energy requirements, and food database information. Design A multisite random-sampling protocol was used to measure the energy contents of the most frequently ordered meals from the most popular cuisines in non–chain restaurants, together with equivalent meals from large-chain restaurants. Setting Meals were obtained from restaurants in San Francisco, CA; Boston, MA; and Little Rock, AR, between 2011 and 2014. Main outcome measures Meal energy content determined by bomb calorimetry. Statistical analysis performed Regional and cuisine differences were assessed using a mixed model with restaurant nested within region×cuisine as the random factor. Paired t tests were used to evaluate differences between non–chain and chain meals, human energy requirements, and food database values. Results Meals from non–chain restaurants contained 1,205±465 kcal/meal, amounts that were not significantly different from equivalent meals from large-chain restaurants (+5.1%; P=0.41). There was a significant effect of cuisine on non–chain meal energy, and three of the four most popular cuisines (American, Italian, and Chinese) had the highest mean energy (1,495 kcal/meal). Ninety-two percent of meals exceeded typical energy requirements for a single eating occasion. Conclusions Non–chain restaurants lacking nutrition information serve amounts of energy that are typically far in excess of human energy requirements for single eating occasions, and are equivalent to amounts served by the large-chain restaurants that have previously been criticized
Urban, Lorien E; Weber, Judith L; Heyman, Melvin B; Schichtl, Rachel L; Verstraete, Sofia; Lowery, Nina S; Das, Sai Krupa; Schleicher, Molly M; Rogers, Gail; Economos, Christina; Masters, William A; Roberts, Susan B
2016-04-01
Excess energy intake from meals consumed away from home is implicated as a major contributor to obesity, and ∼50% of US restaurants are individual or small-chain (non-chain) establishments that do not provide nutrition information. To measure the energy content of frequently ordered meals in non-chain restaurants in three US locations, and compare with the energy content of meals from large-chain restaurants, energy requirements, and food database information. A multisite random-sampling protocol was used to measure the energy contents of the most frequently ordered meals from the most popular cuisines in non-chain restaurants, together with equivalent meals from large-chain restaurants. Meals were obtained from restaurants in San Francisco, CA; Boston, MA; and Little Rock, AR, between 2011 and 2014. Meal energy content determined by bomb calorimetry. Regional and cuisine differences were assessed using a mixed model with restaurant nested within region×cuisine as the random factor. Paired t tests were used to evaluate differences between non-chain and chain meals, human energy requirements, and food database values. Meals from non-chain restaurants contained 1,205±465 kcal/meal, amounts that were not significantly different from equivalent meals from large-chain restaurants (+5.1%; P=0.41). There was a significant effect of cuisine on non-chain meal energy, and three of the four most popular cuisines (American, Italian, and Chinese) had the highest mean energy (1,495 kcal/meal). Ninety-two percent of meals exceeded typical energy requirements for a single eating occasion. Non-chain restaurants lacking nutrition information serve amounts of energy that are typically far in excess of human energy requirements for single eating occasions, and are equivalent to amounts served by the large-chain restaurants that have previously been criticized for providing excess energy. Restaurants in general, rather than specific categories of restaurant, expose patrons to
Universality in random-walk models with birth and death
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bender, C.M.; Boettcher, S.; Meisinger, P.N.
1995-01-01
Models of random walks are considered in which walkers are born at one site and die at all other sites. Steady-state distributions of walkers exhibit dimensionally dependent critical behavior as a function of the birth rate. Exact analytical results for a hyperspherical lattice yield a second-order phase transition with a nontrivial critical exponent for all positive dimensions D≠2, 4. Numerical studies of hypercubic and fractal lattices indicate that these exact results are universal. This work elucidates the adsorption transition of polymers at curved interfaces. copyright 1995 The American Physical Society
Permeability of model porous medium formed by random discs
Gubaidullin, A. A.; Gubkin, A. S.; Igoshin, D. E.; Ignatev, P. A.
2018-03-01
Two-dimension model of the porous medium with skeleton of randomly located overlapping discs is proposed. The geometry and computational grid are built in open package Salome. Flow of Newtonian liquid in longitudinal and transverse directions is calculated and its flow rate is defined. The numerical solution of the Navier-Stokes equations for a given pressure drop at the boundaries of the area is realized in the open package OpenFOAM. Calculated value of flow rate is used for defining of permeability coefficient on the base of Darcy law. For evaluating of representativeness of computational domain the permeability coefficients in longitudinal and transverse directions are compered.
Interpreting parameters in the logistic regression model with random effects
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Larsen, Klaus; Petersen, Jørgen Holm; Budtz-Jørgensen, Esben
2000-01-01
interpretation, interval odds ratio, logistic regression, median odds ratio, normally distributed random effects......interpretation, interval odds ratio, logistic regression, median odds ratio, normally distributed random effects...
A Meta Model for Domestic Energy Consumption
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
K.,J SREEKANTH
2011-01-01
Full Text Available Prediction of energy consumption particularly in micro level is of vital importance in terms of energy planning and also implementation of any Clean Development Mechanism (CDM activities that has become the order of the world today. It may be difficult to model household energy consumption using conventional methods such as time series forecasting due to many influencing factors. This paper presents a step wise regression model for forecasting domestic energy consumption based on micro level household survey data collected from Kerala, a state in southern part of India. The analysis of the data reveals significant influence of socio-economic, demographic, geographic, and family attributes upon total household energy requirements. While a wide variation in the pattern of energy requirements across the domestic sector belonging to different expenditure classes, per capita income level can be identified as the most important explanatory variable influencing variation in energy requirements. The models developed also demonstrates the influence of per capita land area, residential area among the higher income group while average age and literacy forms significant variables among the lower income group.
Geometric Models for Isotropic Random Porous Media: A Review
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Helmut Hermann
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Models for random porous media are considered. The models are isotropic both from the local and the macroscopic point of view; that is, the pores have spherical shape or their surface shows piecewise spherical curvature, and there is no macroscopic gradient of any geometrical feature. Both closed-pore and open-pore systems are discussed. The Poisson grain model, the model of hard spheres packing, and the penetrable sphere model are used; variable size distribution of the pores is included. A parameter is introduced which controls the degree of open-porosity. Besides systems built up by a single solid phase, models for porous media with the internal surface coated by a second phase are treated. Volume fraction, surface area, and correlation functions are given explicitly where applicable; otherwise numerical methods for determination are described. Effective medium theory is applied to calculate physical properties for the models such as isotropic elastic moduli, thermal and electrical conductivity, and static dielectric constant. The methods presented are exemplified by applications: small-angle scattering of systems showing fractal-like behavior in limited ranges of linear dimension, optimization of nanoporous insulating materials, and improvement of properties of open-pore systems by atomic layer deposition of a second phase on the internal surface.
Rigorously testing multialternative decision field theory against random utility models.
Berkowitsch, Nicolas A J; Scheibehenne, Benjamin; Rieskamp, Jörg
2014-06-01
Cognitive models of decision making aim to explain the process underlying observed choices. Here, we test a sequential sampling model of decision making, multialternative decision field theory (MDFT; Roe, Busemeyer, & Townsend, 2001), on empirical grounds and compare it against 2 established random utility models of choice: the probit and the logit model. Using a within-subject experimental design, participants in 2 studies repeatedly choose among sets of options (consumer products) described on several attributes. The results of Study 1 showed that all models predicted participants' choices equally well. In Study 2, in which the choice sets were explicitly designed to distinguish the models, MDFT had an advantage in predicting the observed choices. Study 2 further revealed the occurrence of multiple context effects within single participants, indicating an interdependent evaluation of choice options and correlations between different context effects. In sum, the results indicate that sequential sampling models can provide relevant insights into the cognitive process underlying preferential choices and thus can lead to better choice predictions. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.
Energy laboratory data and model directory
Lahiri, S.; Carson, J.
1981-07-01
Over the past several years M.I.T. faculty, staff, and students have produced a substantial body of research and analysis relating to the production, conversion,, and use of energy in domestic and international markets. Much of this research takes the form of models and associated data bases that have enduring value in policy studies (models) and in supporting related research and modeling efforts (date). For such models and data it is important to ensure that the useful life cycle does not end with the conclusion of the research project. This directory is an important step in extending the usefulness of models and data bases available at the M.I.T. Energy Laboratory. It will be updated from time to time to include new models and data bases that have been developed, or significant changes that have occurred.
Energy and Development. A Modelling Approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Van Ruijven, B.J.
2008-01-01
Rapid economic growth of developing countries like India and China implies that these countries become important actors in the global energy system. Examples of this impact are the present day oil shortages and rapidly increasing emissions of greenhouse gases. Global energy models are used to explore possible future developments of the global energy system and identify policies to prevent potential problems. Such estimations of future energy use in developing countries are very uncertain. Crucial factors in the future energy use of these regions are electrification, urbanisation and income distribution, issues that are generally not included in present day global energy models. Model simulations in this thesis show that current insight in developments in low-income regions lead to a wide range of expected energy use in 2030 of the residential and transport sectors. This is mainly caused by many different model calibration options that result from the limited data availability for model development and calibration. We developed a method to identify the impact of model calibration uncertainty on future projections. We developed a new model for residential energy use in India, in collaboration with the Indian Institute of Science. Experiments with this model show that the impact of electrification and income distribution is less univocal than often assumed. The use of fuelwood, with related health risks, can decrease rapidly if the income of poor groups increases. However, there is a trade off in terms of CO2 emissions because these groups gain access to electricity and the ownership of appliances increases. Another issue is the potential role of new technologies in developing countries: will they use the opportunities of leapfrogging? We explored the potential role of hydrogen, an energy carrier that might play a central role in a sustainable energy system. We found that hydrogen only plays a role before 2050 under very optimistic assumptions. Regional energy
Range walk error correction and modeling on Pseudo-random photon counting system
Shen, Shanshan; Chen, Qian; He, Weiji
2017-08-01
Signal to noise ratio and depth accuracy are modeled for the pseudo-random ranging system with two random processes. The theoretical results, developed herein, capture the effects of code length and signal energy fluctuation are shown to agree with Monte Carlo simulation measurements. First, the SNR is developed as a function of the code length. Using Geiger-mode avalanche photodiodes (GMAPDs), longer code length is proven to reduce the noise effect and improve SNR. Second, the Cramer-Rao lower bound on range accuracy is derived to justify that longer code length can bring better range accuracy. Combined with the SNR model and CRLB model, it is manifested that the range accuracy can be improved by increasing the code length to reduce the noise-induced error. Third, the Cramer-Rao lower bound on range accuracy is shown to converge to the previously published theories and introduce the Gauss range walk model to range accuracy. Experimental tests also converge to the presented boundary model in this paper. It has been proven that depth error caused by the fluctuation of the number of detected photon counts in the laser echo pulse leads to the depth drift of Time Point Spread Function (TPSF). Finally, numerical fitting function is used to determine the relationship between the depth error and the photon counting ratio. Depth error due to different echo energy is calibrated so that the corrected depth accuracy is improved to 1cm.
Gaussian random bridges and a geometric model for information equilibrium
Mengütürk, Levent Ali
2018-03-01
The paper introduces a class of conditioned stochastic processes that we call Gaussian random bridges (GRBs) and proves some of their properties. Due to the anticipative representation of any GRB as the sum of a random variable and a Gaussian (T , 0) -bridge, GRBs can model noisy information processes in partially observed systems. In this spirit, we propose an asset pricing model with respect to what we call information equilibrium in a market with multiple sources of information. The idea is to work on a topological manifold endowed with a metric that enables us to systematically determine an equilibrium point of a stochastic system that can be represented by multiple points on that manifold at each fixed time. In doing so, we formulate GRB-based information diversity over a Riemannian manifold and show that it is pinned to zero over the boundary determined by Dirac measures. We then define an influence factor that controls the dominance of an information source in determining the best estimate of a signal in the L2-sense. When there are two sources, this allows us to construct information equilibrium as a functional of a geodesic-valued stochastic process, which is driven by an equilibrium convergence rate representing the signal-to-noise ratio. This leads us to derive price dynamics under what can be considered as an equilibrium probability measure. We also provide a semimartingale representation of Markovian GRBs associated with Gaussian martingales and a non-anticipative representation of fractional Brownian random bridges that can incorporate degrees of information coupling in a given system via the Hurst exponent.
Chaotic oscillation and random-number generation based on nanoscale optical-energy transfer.
Naruse, Makoto; Kim, Song-Ju; Aono, Masashi; Hori, Hirokazu; Ohtsu, Motoichi
2014-08-12
By using nanoscale energy-transfer dynamics and density matrix formalism, we demonstrate theoretically and numerically that chaotic oscillation and random-number generation occur in a nanoscale system. The physical system consists of a pair of quantum dots (QDs), with one QD smaller than the other, between which energy transfers via optical near-field interactions. When the system is pumped by continuous-wave radiation and incorporates a timing delay between two energy transfers within the system, it emits optical pulses. We refer to such QD pairs as nano-optical pulsers (NOPs). Irradiating an NOP with external periodic optical pulses causes the oscillating frequency of the NOP to synchronize with the external stimulus. We find that chaotic oscillation occurs in the NOP population when they are connected by an external time delay. Moreover, by evaluating the time-domain signals by statistical-test suites, we confirm that the signals are sufficiently random to qualify the system as a random-number generator (RNG). This study reveals that even relatively simple nanodevices that interact locally with each other through optical energy transfer at scales far below the wavelength of irradiating light can exhibit complex oscillatory dynamics. These findings are significant for applications such as ultrasmall RNGs.
Characterizing emerging industrial technologies in energy models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Laitner, John A. (Skip); Worrell, Ernst; Galitsky, Christina; Hanson, Donald A.
2003-07-29
Conservation supply curves are a common tool in economic analysis. As such, they provide an important opportunity to include a non-linear representation of technology and technological change in economy-wide models. Because supply curves are closely related to production isoquants, we explore the possibility of using bottom-up technology assessments to inform top-down representations of energy models of the U.S. economy. Based on a recent report by LBNL and ACEEE on emerging industrial technologies within the United States, we have constructed a supply curve for 54 such technologies for the year 2015. Each of the selected technologies has been assessed with respect to energy efficiency characteristics, likely energy savings by 2015, economics, and environmental performance, as well as needs for further development or implementation of the technology. The technical potential for primary energy savings of the 54 identified technologies is equal to 3.54 Quads, or 8.4 percent of the assume d2015 industrial energy consumption. Based on the supply curve, assuming a discount rate of 15 percent and 2015 prices as forecasted in the Annual Energy Outlook2002, we estimate the economic potential to be 2.66 Quads - or 6.3 percent of the assumed forecast consumption for 2015. In addition, we further estimate how much these industrial technologies might contribute to standard reference case projections, and how much additional energy savings might be available assuming a different mix of policies and incentives. Finally, we review the prospects for integrating the findings of this and similar studies into standard economic models. Although further work needs to be completed to provide the necessary link between supply curves and production isoquants, it is hoped that this link will be a useful starting point for discussion with developers of energy-economic models.
Depletion benchmarks calculation of random media using explicit modeling approach of RMC
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Liu, Shichang; She, Ding; Liang, Jin-gang; Wang, Kan
2016-01-01
Highlights: • Explicit modeling of RMC is applied to depletion benchmark for HTGR fuel element. • Explicit modeling can provide detailed burnup distribution and burnup heterogeneity. • The results would serve as a supplement for the HTGR fuel depletion benchmark. • The method of adjacent burnup regions combination is proposed for full-core problems. • The combination method can reduce memory footprint, keeping the computing accuracy. - Abstract: Monte Carlo method plays an important role in accurate simulation of random media, owing to its advantages of the flexible geometry modeling and the use of continuous-energy nuclear cross sections. Three stochastic geometry modeling methods including Random Lattice Method, Chord Length Sampling and explicit modeling approach with mesh acceleration technique, have been implemented in RMC to simulate the particle transport in the dispersed fuels, in which the explicit modeling method is regarded as the best choice. In this paper, the explicit modeling method is applied to the depletion benchmark for HTGR fuel element, and the method of combination of adjacent burnup regions has been proposed and investigated. The results show that the explicit modeling can provide detailed burnup distribution of individual TRISO particles, and this work would serve as a supplement for the HTGR fuel depletion benchmark calculations. The combination of adjacent burnup regions can effectively reduce the memory footprint while keeping the computational accuracy.
Grosveld, Ferdinand W.
1990-01-01
The feasibility of predicting interior noise due to random acoustic or turbulent boundary layer excitation was investigated in experiments in which a statistical energy analysis model (VAPEPS) was used to analyze measurements of the acceleration response and sound transmission of flat aluminum, lucite, and graphite/epoxy plates exposed to random acoustic or turbulent boundary layer excitation. The noise reduction of the plate, when backed by a shallow cavity and excited by a turbulent boundary layer, was predicted using a simplified theory based on the assumption of adiabatic compression of the fluid in the cavity. The predicted plate acceleration response was used as input in the noise reduction prediction. Reasonable agreement was found between the predictions and the measured noise reduction in the frequency range 315-1000 Hz.
Assessment of correlation energies based on the random-phase approximation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Paier, Joachim; Ren, Xinguo; Rinke, Patrick; Scheffler, Matthias; Scuseria, Gustavo E; Grüneis, Andreas; Kresse, Georg
2012-01-01
The random-phase approximation to the ground state correlation energy (RPA) in combination with exact exchange (EX) has brought the Kohn-Sham (KS) density functional theory one step closer towards a universal, ‘general purpose first-principles method’. In an effort to systematically assess the influence of several correlation energy contributions beyond RPA, this paper presents dissociation energies of small molecules and solids, activation energies for hydrogen transfer and non-hydrogen transfer reactions, as well as reaction energies for a number of common test sets. We benchmark EX + RPA and several flavors of energy functionals going beyond it: second-order screened exchange (SOSEX), single-excitation (SE) corrections, renormalized single-excitation (rSE) corrections and their combinations. Both the SE correction and the SOSEX contribution to the correlation energy significantly improve on the notorious tendency of EX + RPA to underbind. Surprisingly, activation energies obtained using EX + RPA based on a KS reference alone are remarkably accurate. RPA + SOSEX + rSE provides an equal level of accuracy for reaction as well as activation energies and overall gives the most balanced performance, because of which it can be applied to a wide range of systems and chemical reactions. (paper)
OSeMOSYS Energy Modeling Using an Extended UTOPIA Model
Lavigne, Denis
2017-01-01
The OSeMOSYS project offers open-access energy modeling to a wide audience. Its relative simplicity makes it appealing for academic research and governmental organizations to study the impacts of policy decisions on an energy system in the context of possibly severe greenhouse gases emissions limitations. OSeMOSYS is a tool that enhances the…
Metamaterial Model of Tachyonic Dark Energy
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Igor I. Smolyaninov
2014-02-01
Full Text Available Dark energy with negative pressure and positive energy density is believed to be responsible for the accelerated expansion of the universe. Quite a few theoretical models of dark energy are based on tachyonic fields interacting with itself and normal (bradyonic matter. Here, we propose an experimental model of tachyonic dark energy based on hyperbolic metamaterials. Wave equation describing propagation of extraordinary light inside hyperbolic metamaterials exhibits 2 + 1 dimensional Lorentz symmetry. The role of time in the corresponding effective 3D Minkowski spacetime is played by the spatial coordinate aligned with the optical axis of the metamaterial. Nonlinear optical Kerr effect bends this spacetime resulting in effective gravitational force between extraordinary photons. We demonstrate that this model has a self-interacting tachyonic sector having negative effective pressure and positive effective energy density. Moreover, a composite multilayer SiC-Si hyperbolic metamaterial exhibits closely separated tachyonic and bradyonic sectors in the long wavelength infrared range. This system may be used as a laboratory model of inflation and late time acceleration of the universe.
A Statistical Model for Energy Intensity
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marjaneh Issapour
2012-12-01
Full Text Available A promising approach to improve scientific literacy in regards to global warming and climate change is using a simulation as part of a science education course. The simulation needs to employ scientific analysis of actual data from internationally accepted and reputable databases to demonstrate the reality of the current climate change situation. One of the most important criteria for using a simulation in a science education course is the fidelity of the model. The realism of the events and consequences modeled in the simulation is significant as well. Therefore, all underlying equations and algorithms used in the simulation must have real-world scientific basis. The "Energy Choices" simulation is one such simulation. The focus of this paper is the development of a mathematical model for "Energy Intensity" as a part of the overall system dynamics in "Energy Choices" simulation. This model will define the "Energy Intensity" as a function of other independent variables that can be manipulated by users of the simulation. The relationship discovered by this research will be applied to an algorithm in the "Energy Choices" simulation.
Modeling energy-economy interactions using integrated models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Uyterlinde, M.A.
1994-06-01
Integrated models are defined as economic energy models that consist of several submodels, either coupled by an interface module, or embedded in one large model. These models can be used for energy policy analysis. Using integrated models yields the following benefits. They provide a framework in which energy-economy interactions can be better analyzed than in stand-alone models. Integrated models can represent both energy sector technological details, as well as the behaviour of the market and the role of prices. Furthermore, the combination of modeling methodologies in one model can compensate weaknesses of one approach with strengths of another. These advantages motivated this survey of the class of integrated models. The purpose of this literature survey therefore was to collect and to present information on integrated models. To carry out this task, several goals were identified. The first goal was to give an overview of what is reported on these models in general. The second one was to find and describe examples of such models. Other goals were to find out what kinds of models were used as component models, and to examine the linkage methodology. Solution methods and their convergence properties were also a subject of interest. The report has the following structure. In chapter 2, a 'conceptual framework' is given. In chapter 3 a number of integrated models is described. In a table, a complete overview is presented of all described models. Finally, in chapter 4, the report is summarized, and conclusions are drawn regarding the advantages and drawbacks of integrated models. 8 figs., 29 refs
DOD low energy model installation program
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fournier, D.F. Jr.
1993-01-01
The Model Low Energy Installation Program is a demonstration of an installation-wide, comprehensive energy conservation program that meets the Department of Defense (DoD) energy management goals of reducing energy usage and costs by at least 20%. It employs the required strategies for meeting these goals, quantifies the environmental compliance benefits resulting from energy conservation and serves as a prototype for DoD wide application. This project will develop both analysis tools and implementation procedures as well as demonstrate the effectiveness of a comprehensive, coordinated energy conservation program based on state-of-the-art technologies. A military installation is in reality a small to medium sized city. It generally has a complete utilities infrastructure including water supply and distribution, sewage collection and treatment, electrical supply and distribution, central heating and cooling plants with thermal distribution, and a natural gas distribution system. These utilities are quite extensive and actually consume about 10-15% of the energy on the facility not counting the energy going into the central plants
New constraints on modelling the random magnetic field of the MW
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Beck, Marcus C.; Nielaba, Peter [Department of Physics, University of Konstanz, Universitätsstr. 10, D-78457 Konstanz (Germany); Beck, Alexander M.; Dolag, Klaus [University Observatory Munich, Scheinerstr. 1, D-81679 Munich (Germany); Beck, Rainer [Max Planck Institute for Radioastronomy, Auf dem Hügel 69, D-53121 Bonn (Germany); Strong, Andrew W., E-mail: marcus.beck@uni-konstanz.de, E-mail: abeck@usm.uni-muenchen.de, E-mail: rbeck@mpifr-bonn.mpg.de, E-mail: dolag@usm.uni-muenchen.de, E-mail: aws@mpe.mpg.de, E-mail: peter.nielaba@uni-konstanz.de [Max Planck Institute for Extraterrestrial Physics, Giessenbachstr. 1, D-85748 Garching (Germany)
2016-05-01
We extend the description of the isotropic and anisotropic random component of the small-scale magnetic field within the existing magnetic field model of the Milky Way from Jansson and Farrar, by including random realizations of the small-scale component. Using a magnetic-field power spectrum with Gaussian random fields, the NE2001 model for the thermal electrons and the Galactic cosmic-ray electron distribution from the current GALPROP model we derive full-sky maps for the total and polarized synchrotron intensity as well as the Faraday rotation-measure distribution. While previous work assumed that small-scale fluctuations average out along the line-of-sight or which only computed ensemble averages of random fields, we show that these fluctuations need to be carefully taken into account. Comparing with observational data we obtain not only good agreement with 408 MHz total and WMAP7 22 GHz polarized intensity emission maps, but also an improved agreement with Galactic foreground rotation-measure maps and power spectra, whose amplitude and shape strongly depend on the parameters of the random field. We demonstrate that a correlation length of 0≈22 pc (05 pc being a 5σ lower limit) is needed to match the slope of the observed power spectrum of Galactic foreground rotation-measure maps. Using multiple realizations allows us also to infer errors on individual observables. We find that previously-used amplitudes for random and anisotropic random magnetic field components need to be rescaled by factors of ≈0.3 and 0.6 to account for the new small-scale contributions. Our model predicts a rotation measure of −2.8±7.1 rad/m{sup 2} and 04.4±11. rad/m{sup 2} for the north and south Galactic poles respectively, in good agreement with observations. Applying our model to deflections of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays we infer a mean deflection of ≈3.5±1.1 degree for 60 EeV protons arriving from CenA.
Hidden past of dark energy cosmological models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fernandez-Jambrina, L.
2007-01-01
In this Letter we analyse the possibility of having homogeneous isotropic cosmological models with observers reaching t=∞ in finite proper time. It is shown that just observationally-suggested dark energy models with w element of (-5/3,-1) show this feature and that they are endowed with an exotic curvature singularity. Furthermore, it is shown that non-accelerated observers in these models may experience a duration of the universe as short as desired by increasing their linear momentum. A subdivision of phantom models in two families according to this behavior is suggested
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Olsen, Thomas; Thygesen, Kristian S.
2012-01-01
The adiabatic connection fluctuation-dissipation theorem with the random phase approximation (RPA) has recently been applied with success to obtain correlation energies of a variety of chemical and solid state systems. The main merit of this approach is the improved description of dispersive forces...... while chemical bond strengths and absolute correlation energies are systematically underestimated. In this work we extend the RPA by including a parameter-free renormalized version of the adiabatic local-density (ALDA) exchange-correlation kernel. The renormalization consists of a (local) truncation...... of the ALDA kernel for wave vectors q > 2kF, which is found to yield excellent results for the homogeneous electron gas. In addition, the kernel significantly improves both the absolute correlation energies and atomization energies of small molecules over RPA and ALDA. The renormalization can...
High energy X-ray phase and dark-field imaging using a random absorption mask.
Wang, Hongchang; Kashyap, Yogesh; Cai, Biao; Sawhney, Kawal
2016-07-28
High energy X-ray imaging has unique advantage over conventional X-ray imaging, since it enables higher penetration into materials with significantly reduced radiation damage. However, the absorption contrast in high energy region is considerably low due to the reduced X-ray absorption cross section for most materials. Even though the X-ray phase and dark-field imaging techniques can provide substantially increased contrast and complementary information, fabricating dedicated optics for high energies still remain a challenge. To address this issue, we present an alternative X-ray imaging approach to produce transmission, phase and scattering signals at high X-ray energies by using a random absorption mask. Importantly, in addition to the synchrotron radiation source, this approach has been demonstrated for practical imaging application with a laboratory-based microfocus X-ray source. This new imaging method could be potentially useful for studying thick samples or heavy materials for advanced research in materials science.
Joint modeling of ChIP-seq data via a Markov random field model
Bao, Yanchun; Vinciotti, Veronica; Wit, Ernst; 't Hoen, Peter A C
Chromatin ImmunoPrecipitation-sequencing (ChIP-seq) experiments have now become routine in biology for the detection of protein-binding sites. In this paper, we present a Markov random field model for the joint analysis of multiple ChIP-seq experiments. The proposed model naturally accounts for
Economic Modeling of Compressed Air Energy Storage
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rui Bo
2013-04-01
Full Text Available Due to the variable nature of wind resources, the increasing penetration level of wind power will have a significant impact on the operation and planning of the electric power system. Energy storage systems are considered an effective way to compensate for the variability of wind generation. This paper presents a detailed production cost simulation model to evaluate the economic value of compressed air energy storage (CAES in systems with large-scale wind power generation. The co-optimization of energy and ancillary services markets is implemented in order to analyze the impacts of CAES, not only on energy supply, but also on system operating reserves. Both hourly and 5-minute simulations are considered to capture the economic performance of CAES in the day-ahead (DA and real-time (RT markets. The generalized network flow formulation is used to model the characteristics of CAES in detail. The proposed model is applied on a modified IEEE 24-bus reliability test system. The numerical example shows that besides the economic benefits gained through energy arbitrage in the DA market, CAES can also generate significant profits by providing reserves, compensating for wind forecast errors and intra-hour fluctuation, and participating in the RT market.
Bayesian Hierarchical Random Effects Models in Forensic Science
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Colin G. G. Aitken
2018-04-01
Full Text Available Statistical modeling of the evaluation of evidence with the use of the likelihood ratio has a long history. It dates from the Dreyfus case at the end of the nineteenth century through the work at Bletchley Park in the Second World War to the present day. The development received a significant boost in 1977 with a seminal work by Dennis Lindley which introduced a Bayesian hierarchical random effects model for the evaluation of evidence with an example of refractive index measurements on fragments of glass. Many models have been developed since then. The methods have now been sufficiently well-developed and have become so widespread that it is timely to try and provide a software package to assist in their implementation. With that in mind, a project (SAILR: Software for the Analysis and Implementation of Likelihood Ratios was funded by the European Network of Forensic Science Institutes through their Monopoly programme to develop a software package for use by forensic scientists world-wide that would assist in the statistical analysis and implementation of the approach based on likelihood ratios. It is the purpose of this document to provide a short review of a small part of this history. The review also provides a background, or landscape, for the development of some of the models within the SAILR package and references to SAILR as made as appropriate.
Bayesian Hierarchical Random Effects Models in Forensic Science.
Aitken, Colin G G
2018-01-01
Statistical modeling of the evaluation of evidence with the use of the likelihood ratio has a long history. It dates from the Dreyfus case at the end of the nineteenth century through the work at Bletchley Park in the Second World War to the present day. The development received a significant boost in 1977 with a seminal work by Dennis Lindley which introduced a Bayesian hierarchical random effects model for the evaluation of evidence with an example of refractive index measurements on fragments of glass. Many models have been developed since then. The methods have now been sufficiently well-developed and have become so widespread that it is timely to try and provide a software package to assist in their implementation. With that in mind, a project (SAILR: Software for the Analysis and Implementation of Likelihood Ratios) was funded by the European Network of Forensic Science Institutes through their Monopoly programme to develop a software package for use by forensic scientists world-wide that would assist in the statistical analysis and implementation of the approach based on likelihood ratios. It is the purpose of this document to provide a short review of a small part of this history. The review also provides a background, or landscape, for the development of some of the models within the SAILR package and references to SAILR as made as appropriate.
Percolation for a model of statistically inhomogeneous random media
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Quintanilla, J.; Torquato, S.
1999-01-01
We study clustering and percolation phenomena for a model of statistically inhomogeneous two-phase random media, including functionally graded materials. This model consists of inhomogeneous fully penetrable (Poisson distributed) disks and can be constructed for any specified variation of volume fraction. We quantify the transition zone in the model, defined by the frontier of the cluster of disks which are connected to the disk-covered portion of the model, by defining the coastline function and correlation functions for the coastline. We find that the behavior of these functions becomes largely independent of the specific choice of grade in volume fraction as the separation of length scales becomes large. We also show that the correlation function behaves in a manner similar to that of fractal Brownian motion. Finally, we study fractal characteristics of the frontier itself and compare to similar properties for two-dimensional percolation on a lattice. In particular, we show that the average location of the frontier appears to be related to the percolation threshold for homogeneous fully penetrable disks. copyright 1999 American Institute of Physics
Hedonic travel cost and random utility models of recreation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Pendleton, L. [Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Mendelsohn, R.; Davis, E.W. [Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States). School of Forestry and Environmental Studies
1998-07-09
Micro-economic theory began as an attempt to describe, predict and value the demand and supply of consumption goods. Quality was largely ignored at first, but economists have started to address quality within the theory of demand and specifically the question of site quality, which is an important component of land management. This paper demonstrates that hedonic and random utility models emanate from the same utility theoretical foundation, although they make different estimation assumptions. Using a theoretically consistent comparison, both approaches are applied to examine the quality of wilderness areas in the Southeastern US. Data were collected on 4778 visits to 46 trails in 20 different forest areas near the Smoky Mountains. Visitor data came from permits and an independent survey. The authors limited the data set to visitors from within 300 miles of the North Carolina and Tennessee border in order to focus the analysis on single purpose trips. When consistently applied, both models lead to results with similar signs but different magnitudes. Because the two models are equally valid, recreation studies should continue to use both models to value site quality. Further, practitioners should be careful not to make simplifying a priori assumptions which limit the effectiveness of both techniques.
PECULIARITIES OF THE RENEWABLE ENERGY BUSINESS MODELS
BĂLOI Ionut-Cosmin
2014-01-01
By exploring the competitiveness of industries and companies, we could identify the factors whose importance is likely to generate competitive advantage. An inventory of content elements of the business model summarizes the clearest opportunities and prospects. The objectives developed throughout the paper want to identify the pillars of a renewable business model and to describe the strategic dimensions of their capitalisation in regional and national energy entrepreneurship. The trend of in...
Aquifer thermal-energy-storage modeling
Schaetzle, W. J.; Lecroy, J. E.
1982-09-01
A model aquifer was constructed to simulate the operation of a full size aquifer. Instrumentation to evaluate the water flow and thermal energy storage was installed in the system. Numerous runs injecting warm water into a preconditioned uniform aquifer were made. Energy recoveries were evaluated and agree with comparisons of other limited available data. The model aquifer is simulated in a swimming pool, 18 ft by 4 ft, which was filled with sand. Temperature probes were installed in the system. A 2 ft thick aquifer is confined by two layers of polyethylene. Both the aquifer and overburden are sand. Four well configurations are available. The system description and original tests, including energy recovery, are described.
Towards an energy end use model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Smith Fontana, Raul
2003-01-01
The general equilibrium energy end use model proposed, uses linear programming as te basic and central element to optimization of variables defined in the economic and energy areas of the country related to a four factors structure: Energy, Raw Material, Capital and Labor, and related to the sectors: Residential, Commercial, Industrial, Transportation and Import/Export. Input-Output coefficients are defined in an input-output matrix of processes representing the supply of Electricity (generated by nuclear- not available in Chile-hydro, gas, fuel-oil and coal), Petroleum, Imported Natural Gas (transported and distributed) National Natural Gas, LPG, Coal, Wood and representing a demand of Residential, Commercial, Industrial, Transportation and Import/Export. There is an interaction of the final demand composition, the prices of capital, labor and taxes with the levels of operation for each process and the prices of goods and services. In addition to the prices of fuels for each annual period, to the supply and demand of energy and to the total demand it can forecast the optimum coefficients of the final demand. If the data to be collected result reasonably complete and consistent, the model will be useful for planning. A special effort should be placed in specifying a certain number of typical energy activities, the available options for fuels, the selection of them attending rational market decisions and conservation according to well known economical criteria of substitution. To simulate the process of options selection given by the activities and to allow substitutions, it is possible to introduce the logit function characterized by a Weibull distribution and the generalized substitution function characterized by the constant electricity. The model would allow, assuming differents scenario, to visualize general policies in the penetration of energy technologies. To study the penetration of electric energy generated by nuclear, in which the country does not have
Learning curves in energy planning models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Barreto, L; Kypreos, S [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)
1999-08-01
This study describes the endogenous representation of investment cost learning curves into the MARKAL energy planning model. A piece-wise representation of the learning curves is implemented using Mixed Integer Programming. The approach is briefly described and some results are presented. (author) 3 figs., 5 refs.
Energy consumption modeling during dairy sewage pretreatment
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dąbrowski Wojciech
2017-01-01
Full Text Available The research was conducted in a dairy WWTP located in north-eastern Poland with the average flow of 546 m3d-1 and PE 11500 in 2016. Energy consumption was measured with the help of Lumel 3-phase network parameter transducers installed within the plant. The modeling was conducted based on the quantity and quality of raw sewage, after its screening, averaging and dissolved air flotation. The following parameters were determined: BOD5, COD. N-total and P-total. During the research period. 15 measurement series were carried out. Pollution loads removed in primary treatment varied from 167.0 to 803.5 kgO2d-1 and 1205.9 to 10032 kgO2d-1 for BOD5 and COD respectively. The energy consumption share during dairy pretreatment in relation to the total energy consumption was in the range from 13.8 to 28.5% with the mean value of 18.7% during the research period. Energy consumption indicators relating to removed pollution loads for primary treatment were established with the mean values of 0.74 and 0.83 kWhkg-1d-1 for BOD5 and COD respectively. An attempt was made to determine the influence of raw sewage characteristics and pretreatment efficiency on energy consumption of the object. A model of energy consumption during pretreatment was estimated according to the experimental data obtained in the research period. It was modeled using the linear regression model and principal component analysis.
[Critical of the additive model of the randomized controlled trial].
Boussageon, Rémy; Gueyffier, François; Bejan-Angoulvant, Theodora; Felden-Dominiak, Géraldine
2008-01-01
Randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trials are currently the best way to demonstrate the clinical effectiveness of drugs. Its methodology relies on the method of difference (John Stuart Mill), through which the observed difference between two groups (drug vs placebo) can be attributed to the pharmacological effect of the drug being tested. However, this additive model can be questioned in the event of statistical interactions between the pharmacological and the placebo effects. Evidence in different domains has shown that the placebo effect can influence the effect of the active principle. This article evaluates the methodological, clinical and epistemological consequences of this phenomenon. Topics treated include extrapolating results, accounting for heterogeneous results, demonstrating the existence of several factors in the placebo effect, the necessity to take these factors into account for given symptoms or pathologies, as well as the problem of the "specific" effect.
Stochastic equilibria of an asset pricing model with heterogeneous beliefs and random dividends
Zhu, M.; Wang, D.; Guo, M.
2011-01-01
We investigate dynamical properties of a heterogeneous agent model with random dividends and further study the relationship between dynamical properties of the random model and those of the corresponding deterministic skeleton, which is obtained by setting the random dividends as their constant mean
Multiscale model of short cracks in a random polycrystalline aggregate
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Simonovski, I.; Cizelj, L.; Petric, Z.
2006-01-01
A plane-strain finite element crystal plasticity model of microstructurally small stationary crack emanating at a surface grain in a 316L stainless steel is proposed. The model consisting of 212 randomly shaped, sized and oriented grains is loaded monotonically in uniaxial tension to a maximum load of 1.12Rp0.2 (280MPa). The influence that a random grain structure imposes on a Stage I crack is assessed by calculating the crack tip opening (CTOD) and sliding displacements (CTSD) for single crystal as well as for polycrystal models, considering also different crystallographic orientations. In the single crystal case the CTOD and CTSD may differ by more than one order of magnitude. Near the crack tip slip is activated on all the slip planes whereby only two are active in the rest of the model. The maximum CTOD is directly related to the maximal Schmid factors. For the more complex polycrystal cases it is shown that certain crystallographic orientations result in a cluster of soft grains around the crack-containing grain. In these cases the crack tip can become a part of the localized strain, resulting in a large CTOD value. This effect, resulting from the overall grain orientations and sizes, can have a greater impact on the CTOD than the local grain orientation. On the other hand, when a localized soft response is formed away from the crack, the localized strain does not affect the crack tip directly, resulting in a small CTOD value. The resulting difference in CTOD can be up to a factor of 4, depending upon the crystallographic set. Grains as far as 6 times the value of crack length significantly influence that crack tip parameters. It was also found that a larger crack containing grain tends to increase the CTOD. Finally, smaller than expected drop in the CTOD (12.7%) was obtained as the crack approached the grain boundary. This could be due to the assumption of the unchanged crack direction, only monotonic loading and simplified grain boundary modelling. (author)
Sensitivity analysis of a modified energy model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Suganthi, L.; Jagadeesan, T.R.
1997-01-01
Sensitivity analysis is carried out to validate model formulation. A modified model has been developed to predict the future energy requirement of coal, oil and electricity, considering price, income, technological and environmental factors. The impact and sensitivity of the independent variables on the dependent variable are analysed. The error distribution pattern in the modified model as compared to a conventional time series model indicated the absence of clusters. The residual plot of the modified model showed no distinct pattern of variation. The percentage variation of error in the conventional time series model for coal and oil ranges from -20% to +20%, while for electricity it ranges from -80% to +20%. However, in the case of the modified model the percentage variation in error is greatly reduced - for coal it ranges from -0.25% to +0.15%, for oil -0.6% to +0.6% and for electricity it ranges from -10% to +10%. The upper and lower limit consumption levels at 95% confidence is determined. The consumption at varying percentage changes in price and population are analysed. The gap between the modified model predictions at varying percentage changes in price and population over the years from 1990 to 2001 is found to be increasing. This is because of the increasing rate of energy consumption over the years and also the confidence level decreases as the projection is made far into the future. (author)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Xu, Zhijie; Tartakovsky, Alexandre M.
2017-09-01
This work presents a hierarchical model for solute transport in bounded layered porous media with random permeability. The model generalizes the Taylor-Aris dispersion theory to stochastic transport in random layered porous media with a known velocity covariance function. In the hierarchical model, we represent (random) concentration in terms of its cross-sectional average and a variation function. We derive a one-dimensional stochastic advection-dispersion-type equation for the average concentration and a stochastic Poisson equation for the variation function, as well as expressions for the effective velocity and dispersion coefficient. We observe that velocity fluctuations enhance dispersion in a non-monotonic fashion: the dispersion initially increases with correlation length λ, reaches a maximum, and decreases to zero at infinity. Maximum enhancement can be obtained at the correlation length about 0.25 the size of the porous media perpendicular to flow.
Economic models for battery energy storage
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Reckrodt, R.C.; Anderson, M.D.; Kluczny, R.M.
1990-01-01
While the technology required to produce viable Battery Energy Storage System exists, the economic feasibility (cost vs. benefits) of building these systems requires justification. First, a generalized decision diagram was developed to ensure that all of the economic factors were considered and properly related for the customer-side-of-the meter. Next, two economic models that had consistently given differing results were compared. One was the McKinney model developed at UM-Rolla in 1987; the second was the SYSPLAN model developed by Battelle. Differences were resolved on a point by point basis with reference to the current economic environment. The economic model was upgraded to include the best of both models based on the resolution of these differences. The upgrades were implemented as modifications to the original SYSPLAN (1986 version) to preserve user friendliness. In this paper four specific cases are evaluated and compared. The results are as predicted, since comparison was made with two known models
Measurement model choice influenced randomized controlled trial results.
Gorter, Rosalie; Fox, Jean-Paul; Apeldoorn, Adri; Twisk, Jos
2016-11-01
In randomized controlled trials (RCTs), outcome variables are often patient-reported outcomes measured with questionnaires. Ideally, all available item information is used for score construction, which requires an item response theory (IRT) measurement model. However, in practice, the classical test theory measurement model (sum scores) is mostly used, and differences between response patterns leading to the same sum score are ignored. The enhanced differentiation between scores with IRT enables more precise estimation of individual trajectories over time and group effects. The objective of this study was to show the advantages of using IRT scores instead of sum scores when analyzing RCTs. Two studies are presented, a real-life RCT, and a simulation study. Both IRT and sum scores are used to measure the construct and are subsequently used as outcomes for effect calculation. The bias in RCT results is conditional on the measurement model that was used to construct the scores. A bias in estimated trend of around one standard deviation was found when sum scores were used, where IRT showed negligible bias. Accurate statistical inferences are made from an RCT study when using IRT to estimate construct measurements. The use of sum scores leads to incorrect RCT results. Copyright Â© 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Development of an Integrated Global Energy Model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Krakowski, R.A.
1999-01-01
The primary objective of this research was to develop a forefront analysis tool for application to enhance understanding of long-term, global, nuclear-energy and nuclear-material futures. To this end, an existing economics-energy-environmental (E 3 ) model was adopted, modified, and elaborated to examine this problem in a multi-regional (13), long-term (approximately2,100) context. The E 3 model so developed was applied to create a Los Alamos presence in this E 3 area through ''niche analyses'' that provide input to the formulation of policies dealing with and shaping of nuclear-energy and nuclear-materials futures. Results from analyses using the E 3 model have been presented at a variety of national and international conferences and workshops. Through use of the E 3 model Los Alamos was afforded the opportunity to participate in a multi-national E 3 study team that is examining a range of global, long-term nuclear issues under the auspices of the IAEA during the 1998-99 period . Finally, the E 3 model developed under this LDRD project is being used as an important component in more recent Nuclear Material Management Systems (NMMS) project
High energy model for irregular absorbing particles
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chiappetta, Pierre.
1979-05-01
In the framework of a high energy formulation of relativistic quantum scattering a model is presented which describes the scattering functions and polarization of irregular absorbing particles, whose dimensions are greater than the incident wavelength. More precisely in the forward direction an amplitude parametrization of eikonal type is defined which generalizes the usual diffraction theory, and in the backward direction a reflective model is used including a shadow function. The model predictions are in good agreement with the scattering measurements off irregular compact and fluffy particles performed by Zerull, Giese and Weiss (1977)
Simple implementation of general dark energy models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bloomfield, Jolyon K.; Pearson, Jonathan A.
2014-01-01
We present a formalism for the numerical implementation of general theories of dark energy, combining the computational simplicity of the equation of state for perturbations approach with the generality of the effective field theory approach. An effective fluid description is employed, based on a general action describing single-scalar field models. The formalism is developed from first principles, and constructed keeping the goal of a simple implementation into CAMB in mind. Benefits of this approach include its straightforward implementation, the generality of the underlying theory, the fact that the evolved variables are physical quantities, and that model-independent phenomenological descriptions may be straightforwardly investigated. We hope this formulation will provide a powerful tool for the comparison of theoretical models of dark energy with observational data
Madelung energy for random metallic alloys in the coherent potential approximation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Korzhavyi, P. A.; Ruban, Andrei; Abrikosov, I. A.
1995-01-01
Within the conventional single-site coherent potential approximation (CPA) used to calculate thermodynamic properties of random alloys, the effect of charge transfer is neglected. We discuss a number of recent models based on the same mathematical form but with a different prefactor β which allow...... random alloy, and in this case the screened-CPA method (β=1/2) gives more correct results. It is suggested that a comparison with the results obtained by the Connolly-Williams method may be used to determine an optimal value for β depending on the alloy under consideration....
PECULIARITIES OF THE RENEWABLE ENERGY BUSINESS MODELS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
BĂLOI Ionut-Cosmin
2014-07-01
Full Text Available By exploring the competitiveness of industries and companies, we could identify the factors whose importance is likely to generate competitive advantage. An inventory of content elements of the business model summarizes the clearest opportunities and prospects. The objectives developed throughout the paper want to identify the pillars of a renewable business model and to describe the strategic dimensions of their capitalisation in regional and national energy entrepreneurship. The trend of increasing the renewable energy business volume is driven by the entrepreneurs and company’s availability to try new markets, with many unpredictable implications and the willingness of these players or their creditors to spend their savings, in various forms, for the concerned projects. There is no alternative to intensive investment strategies, given that the small projects are not able to create high value and competitiveness for interested entrepreneurs. For this reason, the international practice shows that the business models in energy production are supported by partnerships and networks of entrepreneurs who are involved in the development of large projects. The most important feature of renewable business initiatives is on attracting the latest clean emerging technologies, and obviously the investors who can assume the risk of such great projects. The benefits of a well developed business model recommend a prudent approach in the launching in the investment strategies, because the competitive contexts hide always some dissatisfaction of the partners that endanger the business concept’s success. The small firms can develop a profitable business model by exploring the opportunity of the alliances, namely the particular joint ventures (association between Romanian and foreign firms. The advantages of joint venture's partners are considerable; they include access to expertise, resources and other assets that the partners could not achieve on their own
The Sustainable Energy Utility (SEU) Model for Energy Service Delivery
Houck, Jason; Rickerson, Wilson
2009-01-01
Climate change, energy price spikes, and concerns about energy security have reignited interest in state and local efforts to promote end-use energy efficiency, customer-sited renewable energy, and energy conservation. Government agencies and utilities have historically designed and administered such demand-side measures, but innovative…
Energy Blocks--A Physical Model for Teaching Energy Concepts
Hertting, Scott
2016-01-01
Most physics educators would agree that energy is a very useful, albeit abstract topic. It is therefore important to use various methods to help the student internalize the concept of energy itself and its related ideas. These methods include using representations such as energy bar graphs, energy pie charts, or energy tracking diagrams.…
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Assaf, A. George [Isenberg School of Management, University of Massachusetts-Amherst, 90 Campus Center Way, Amherst 01002 (United States); Barros, Carlos Pestana [Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, Technical University of Lisbon, Rua Miguel Lupi, 20, 1249-078 Lisbon (Portugal); Managi, Shunsuke [Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Tohoku University, 6-6-20 Aramaki-Aza Aoba, Aoba-Ku, Sendai 980-8579 (Japan)
2011-04-15
This study analyses and compares the cost efficiency of Japanese steam power generation companies using the fixed and random Bayesian frontier models. We show that it is essential to account for heterogeneity in modelling the performance of energy companies. Results from the model estimation also indicate that restricting CO{sub 2} emissions can lead to a decrease in total cost. The study finally discusses the efficiency variations between the energy companies under analysis, and elaborates on the managerial and policy implications of the results. (author)
SU-F-BRD-09: A Random Walk Model Algorithm for Proton Dose Calculation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yao, W; Farr, J
2015-01-01
Purpose: To develop a random walk model algorithm for calculating proton dose with balanced computation burden and accuracy. Methods: Random walk (RW) model is sometimes referred to as a density Monte Carlo (MC) simulation. In MC proton dose calculation, the use of Gaussian angular distribution of protons due to multiple Coulomb scatter (MCS) is convenient, but in RW the use of Gaussian angular distribution requires an extremely large computation and memory. Thus, our RW model adopts spatial distribution from the angular one to accelerate the computation and to decrease the memory usage. From the physics and comparison with the MC simulations, we have determined and analytically expressed those critical variables affecting the dose accuracy in our RW model. Results: Besides those variables such as MCS, stopping power, energy spectrum after energy absorption etc., which have been extensively discussed in literature, the following variables were found to be critical in our RW model: (1) inverse squared law that can significantly reduce the computation burden and memory, (2) non-Gaussian spatial distribution after MCS, and (3) the mean direction of scatters at each voxel. In comparison to MC results, taken as reference, for a water phantom irradiated by mono-energetic proton beams from 75 MeV to 221.28 MeV, the gamma test pass rate was 100% for the 2%/2mm/10% criterion. For a highly heterogeneous phantom consisting of water embedded by a 10 cm cortical bone and a 10 cm lung in the Bragg peak region of the proton beam, the gamma test pass rate was greater than 98% for the 3%/3mm/10% criterion. Conclusion: We have determined key variables in our RW model for proton dose calculation. Compared with commercial pencil beam algorithms, our RW model much improves the dose accuracy in heterogeneous regions, and is about 10 times faster than MC simulations
Modeling and Simulation of Energy Recovery from a Photovoltaic ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Modeling and Simulation of Energy Recovery from a Photovoltaic Solar cell. ... Photovoltaic (PV) solar cell which converts solar energy directly into electrical energy is one of ... model of the solar panel which could represent the real systems.
Modelling the impact of energy taxation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sjoedin, J.
2002-01-01
Energy taxation in Sweden is complicated and strongly guides and governs district energy production. Consequently, there is a need for methods for accurate calculation and analysis of effects that different energy tax schemes may have on district energy utilities. Here, a practicable method to analyse influence of such governmental policy measures is demonstrated. The Swedish Government has for some years now been working on a reform of energy taxation, and during this process, several interest groups have expressed their own proposals for improving and developing the system of energy taxation. Together with the present system of taxation, four new alternatives, including the proposed directive of the European Commission, are outlined in the paper. In a case study, an analysis is made of how the different tax alternatives may influence the choice of profitable investments and use of energy carriers in a medium-sized district-heating utility. The calculations are made with a linear-programming model framework. By calculating suitable types and sizes of new investments, if any, and the operation of existing and potential plants, total energy costs are minimized. Results of the analysis include the most profitable investments, which fuel should be used, roughly when during a year plants should be in operation, and at what output. In most scenarios, the most profitable measure is to invest in a waste incineration plant. However, a crucial assumption is, with reference to the new Swedish waste disposal act, a significant income from incinerating refuse. Without this income, different tax schemes result in different technical solutions being most profitable. An investment in cogeneration seems possible in only one scenario. It is also found that particular features of some alternatives seem to oppose both main governmental policy goals, and intentions of the district heating company. (Author)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tan Nhat Nguyen
2016-01-01
Full Text Available In this paper, we evaluate performances of various user selection protocols under impact of hardware impairments. In the considered protocols, a Base Station (BS selects one of available Users (US to serve, while the remaining USs harvest the energy from the Radio Frequency (RF transmitted by the BS. We assume that all of the US randomly appear around the BS. In the Random Selection Protocol (RAN, the BS randomly selects a US to transmit the data. In the second proposed protocol, named Minimum Distance Protocol (MIND, the US that is nearest to the BS will be chosen. In the Optimal Selection Protocol (OPT, the US providing the highest channel gain between itself and the BS will be served. For performance evaluation, we derive exact and asymptotic closed-form expressions of average Outage Probability (OP over Rayleigh fading channels. We also consider average harvested energy per a US. Finally, Monte-Carlo simulations are then performed to verify the theoretical results.
Blikman, Lyan Jm; van Meeteren, Jetty; Twisk, Jos Wr; de Laat, Fred Aj; de Groot, Vincent; Beckerman, Heleen; Stam, Henk J; Bussmann, Johannes Bj
2017-10-01
Fatigue is a frequently reported and disabling symptom in multiple sclerosis (MS). To investigate the effectiveness of an individual energy conservation management (ECM) intervention on fatigue and participation in persons with primary MS-related fatigue. A total of 86 severely fatigued and ambulatory adults with a definite diagnosis of MS were randomized in a single-blind, two-parallel-arm randomized clinical trial to the ECM group or the information-only control group in outpatient rehabilitation departments. Blinded assessments were carried out at baseline and at 8, 16, 26 and 52 weeks after randomization. Primary outcomes were fatigue (fatigue subscale of Checklist Individual Strength - CIS20r) and participation (Impact on Participation and Autonomy scale - IPA). Modified intention-to-treat analysis was based on 76 randomized patients (ECM, n = 36; MS nurse, n=40). No significant ECM effects were found for fatigue (overall difference CIS20r between the groups = -0.81; 95% confidence interval (CI), -3.71 to 2.11) or for four out of five IPA domains. An overall unfavourable effect was found in the ECM group for the IPA domain social relations (difference between the groups = 0.19; 95% CI, 0.03 to 0.35). The individual ECM format used in this study did not reduce MS-related fatigue and restrictions in participation more than an information-only control condition.
Dynamic energy-demand models. A comparison
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yi, Feng
2000-01-01
This paper compares two second-generation dynamic energy demand models, a translog (TL) and a general Leontief (GL), in the study of price elasticities and factor substitutions of nine Swedish manufacturing industries: food, textiles, wood, paper, printing, chemicals, non-metallic minerals, base metals and machinery. Several model specifications are tested with likelihood ratio test. There is a disagreement on short-run adjustments; the TL model accepts putty-putty production technology of immediate adjustments, implying equal short- and long-run price elasticities of factors, while the GL model rejects immediate adjustments, giving out short-run elasticities quite different from the long-run. The two models also disagree in substitutability in many cases. 21 refs
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Workman, Christopher; Krogh, Anders Stærmose
1999-01-01
This work investigates whether mRNA has a lower estimated folding free energy than random sequences. The free energy estimates are calculated by the mfold program for prediction of RNA secondary structures. For a set of 46 mRNAs it is shown that the predicted free energy is not significantly diff...
Discriminative Random Field Models for Subsurface Contamination Uncertainty Quantification
Arshadi, M.; Abriola, L. M.; Miller, E. L.; De Paolis Kaluza, C.
2017-12-01
Application of flow and transport simulators for prediction of the release, entrapment, and persistence of dense non-aqueous phase liquids (DNAPLs) and associated contaminant plumes is a computationally intensive process that requires specification of a large number of material properties and hydrologic/chemical parameters. Given its computational burden, this direct simulation approach is particularly ill-suited for quantifying both the expected performance and uncertainty associated with candidate remediation strategies under real field conditions. Prediction uncertainties primarily arise from limited information about contaminant mass distributions, as well as the spatial distribution of subsurface hydrologic properties. Application of direct simulation to quantify uncertainty would, thus, typically require simulating multiphase flow and transport for a large number of permeability and release scenarios to collect statistics associated with remedial effectiveness, a computationally prohibitive process. The primary objective of this work is to develop and demonstrate a methodology that employs measured field data to produce equi-probable stochastic representations of a subsurface source zone that capture the spatial distribution and uncertainty associated with key features that control remediation performance (i.e., permeability and contamination mass). Here we employ probabilistic models known as discriminative random fields (DRFs) to synthesize stochastic realizations of initial mass distributions consistent with known, and typically limited, site characterization data. Using a limited number of full scale simulations as training data, a statistical model is developed for predicting the distribution of contaminant mass (e.g., DNAPL saturation and aqueous concentration) across a heterogeneous domain. Monte-Carlo sampling methods are then employed, in conjunction with the trained statistical model, to generate realizations conditioned on measured borehole data
Analysis of pilgrim dark energy models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Sharif, M.; Jawad, Abdul [University of the Punjab, Department of Mathematics, Lahore (Pakistan)
2013-04-15
The proposal of pilgrim dark energy is based on the idea that phantom dark energy possesses enough resistive force to preclude black hole formation. We work on this proposal by choosing an interacting framework with cold dark matter and three cutoffs such as Hubble as well as event horizon and conformal age of the universe. We present a graphical analysis and focus our study on the pilgrim dark energy as well as interacting parameters. It is found that these parameters play an effective role on the equation of state parameter for exploring the phantom region of the universe. We also make the analysis of {omega}-{omega}' and point out freezing region in the {omega}-{omega}' plane. Finally, it turns out that the {Lambda}CDM is achieved in the statefinders plane for all models. (orig.)
A random walk evolution model of wireless sensor networks and virus spreading
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wang Ya-Qi; Yang Xiao-Yuan
2013-01-01
In this paper, considering both cluster heads and sensor nodes, we propose a novel evolving a network model based on a random walk to study the fault tolerance decrease of wireless sensor networks (WSNs) due to node failure, and discuss the spreading dynamic behavior of viruses in the evolution model. A theoretical analysis shows that the WSN generated by such an evolution model not only has a strong fault tolerance, but also can dynamically balance the energy loss of the entire network. It is also found that although the increase of the density of cluster heads in the network reduces the network efficiency, it can effectively inhibit the spread of viruses. In addition, the heterogeneity of the network improves the network efficiency and enhances the virus prevalence. We confirm all the theoretical results with sufficient numerical simulations. (general)
Fragmentation of polarized 23Na on 208Pb and the random-walk model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Clarke, N.M.; Karban, O.; Blyth, C.O.; Choi, H.D.; Hall, S.J.; Roman, S.; Tungate, G.; Cole, A.J.; Davis, N.J.; Shotter, A.C.; Connell, K.A.
1993-01-01
Inclusive measurements are presented for the differential cross sections and tensor analyzing powers ( TT 20 and T 20 ) of ions produced by the fragmentation of a beam of polarized 23 Na incident on a 208 Pb target at an energy of 195.5 MeV (8.5 MeV/nucleon). The data are discussed in terms of a simple ''shape-effect'' model, and compared to the predictions of the nuclear random-walk model which has been extended to the calculation of aligned, deformed projectiles. This model reproduces the principal features of the differential cross sections and the trends as a function of mass loss, but gives poorer agreement for the analyzing powers
Mussard, Bastien; Rocca, Dario; Jansen, Georg; Ángyán, János G
2016-05-10
Starting from the general expression for the ground state correlation energy in the adiabatic-connection fluctuation-dissipation theorem (ACFDT) framework, it is shown that the dielectric matrix formulation, which is usually applied to calculate the direct random phase approximation (dRPA) correlation energy, can be used for alternative RPA expressions including exchange effects. Within this famework, the ACFDT analog of the second order screened exchange (SOSEX) approximation leads to a logarithmic formula for the correlation energy similar to the direct RPA expression. Alternatively, the contribution of the exchange can be included in the kernel used to evaluate the response functions. In this case, the use of an approximate kernel is crucial to simplify the formalism and to obtain a correlation energy in logarithmic form. Technical details of the implementation of these methods are discussed, and it is shown that one can take advantage of density fitting or Cholesky decomposition techniques to improve the computational efficiency; a discussion on the numerical quadrature made on the frequency variable is also provided. A series of test calculations on atomic correlation energies and molecular reaction energies shows that exchange effects are instrumental for improvement over direct RPA results.
Models for randomly distributed nanoscopic domains on spherical vesicles
Anghel, Vinicius N. P.; Bolmatov, Dima; Katsaras, John
2018-06-01
The existence of lipid domains in the plasma membrane of biological systems has proven controversial, primarily due to their nanoscopic size—a length scale difficult to interrogate with most commonly used experimental techniques. Scattering techniques have recently proven capable of studying nanoscopic lipid domains populating spherical vesicles. However, the development of analytical methods able of predicting and analyzing domain pair correlations from such experiments has not kept pace. Here, we developed models for the random distribution of monodisperse, circular nanoscopic domains averaged on the surface of a spherical vesicle. Specifically, the models take into account (i) intradomain correlations corresponding to form factors and interdomain correlations corresponding to pair distribution functions, and (ii) the analytical computation of interdomain correlations for cases of two and three domains on a spherical vesicle. In the case of more than three domains, these correlations are treated either by Monte Carlo simulations or by spherical analogs of the Ornstein-Zernike and Percus-Yevick (PY) equations. Importantly, the spherical analog of the PY equation works best in the case of nanoscopic size domains, a length scale that is mostly inaccessible by experimental approaches such as, for example, fluorescent techniques and optical microscopies. The analytical form factors and structure factors of nanoscopic domains populating a spherical vesicle provide a new and important framework for the quantitative analysis of experimental data from commonly studied phase-separated vesicles used in a wide range of biophysical studies.
New models intensify the purchase of energy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Vesimaeki, P.; Lampinen, J.
2001-01-01
Models, designed for planning and optimisation of the purchase of energy, combined with high-quality expertise have an impact on the costs of energy companies. Optimisation has a significant role in power plant investments and in planning the power distribution of wholesale electric power. After the liberation of the electricity markets, the planning of the electricity purchase and the optimisation have obtained totally new roles in estimating the cost effects of present and new customers. Electrowatt-Ekono has developed a windows-based COPSIM software for planning of electric power purchase. The software is in active use in Electrowatt-Ekono. The energy purchase is optimised on yearly basis or on a shorter period by one hour steps based on hourly variation of energy purchase, power plant characteristics, power consumption rates and the prices of the fuels, power and heat. COPSIM takes the effect of external temperature on the power generation of backpressure and gas turbine plants into account. The software optimises also the power distribution of wholesale power. By the software it is possible to model different types of power plants, purchase of power, power sales, different power plant shares, thermal power stations, purchase and sales of heat, heat storage and heat transfer between different heating networks
Stochastic Modelling of Wireless Energy Transfer
Veilleux, Shaun; Almaghasilah, Ahmed; Abedi, Ali; Wilkerson, DeLisa
2017-01-01
This study investigates the efficiency of a new method of powering remote sensors by the means of wireless energy transfer. The increased use of sensors for data collection comes with the inherent cost of supplying power from sources such as power cables or batteries. Wireless energy transfer technology eliminates the need for power cables or periodic battery replacement. The time and cost of setting up or expanding a sensor network will be reduced while allowing sensors to be placed in areas where running power cables or battery replacement is not feasible. This paper models wireless channels for power and data separately. Smart scheduling for the data channel is proposed to avoid transmitting data on a noisy channel where the probability of data loss is high to improve power efficiency. Analytical models have been developed and verified using simulations.
Zhang, Yulong; Wang, Tianyang; Zhang, Ai; Peng, Zhuoteng; Luo, Dan; Chen, Rui; Wang, Fei
2016-12-01
In this paper, we present design and test of a broadband electrostatic energy harvester with a dual resonant structure, which consists of two cantilever-mass subsystems each with a mass attached at the free edge of a cantilever. Comparing to traditional devices with single resonant frequency, the proposed device with dual resonant structure can resonate at two frequencies. Furthermore, when one of the cantilever-masses is oscillating at resonance, the vibration amplitude is large enough to make it collide with the other mass, which provides strong mechanical coupling between the two subsystems. Therefore, this device can harvest a decent power output from vibration sources at a broad frequency range. During the measurement, continuous power output up to 6.2-9.8 μW can be achieved under external vibration amplitude of 9.3 m/s 2 at a frequency range from 36.3 Hz to 48.3 Hz, which means the bandwidth of the device is about 30% of the central frequency. The broad bandwidth of the device provides a promising application for energy harvesting from the scenarios with random vibration sources. The experimental results indicate that with the dual resonant structure, the vibration-to-electricity energy conversion efficiency can be improved by 97% when an external random vibration with a low frequency filter is applied.
Quark model and high energy collisions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nyiri, J.; Kobrinsky, M.N.
1982-06-01
The aim of the present review is to show that the additive quark model describes well not only the static features of hadrons but also the interaction processes at high energies. Considerations of the hadron-hadron and hadron-nucleus interactions and of the hadron production in multiparticle production processes suggest serious arguments in favour of the nucleus-like hadron structure and show the possibility to apply the rules of quark statistics to the description of the secondary particle production. (author)
Premium Pricing of Liability Insurance Using Random Sum Model
Kartikasari, Mujiati Dwi
2017-01-01
Premium pricing is one of important activities in insurance. Nonlife insurance premium is calculated from expected value of historical data claims. The historical data claims are collected so that it forms a sum of independent random number which is called random sum. In premium pricing using random sum, claim frequency distribution and claim severity distribution are combined. The combination of these distributions is called compound distribution. By using liability claim insurance data, we ...
Zero-point energy in bag models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Milton, K.A.
1979-01-01
The zero-point (Casimir) energy of free vector (gluon) fields confined to a spherical cavity (bag) is computed. With a suitable renormalization the result for eight gluons is E = + 0.51/a. This result is substantially larger than that for a spherical shell (where both interior and exterior modes are present), and so affects Johnson's model of the QCD vacuum. It is also smaller than, and of opposite sign to, the value used in bag model phenomenology, so it will have important implications there. 1 figure
Chameleon dark energy models with characteristic signatures
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gannouji, Radouane; Moraes, Bruno; Polarski, David; Mota, David F.; Winther, Hans A.; Tsujikawa, Shinji
2010-01-01
In chameleon dark energy models, local gravity constraints tend to rule out parameters in which observable cosmological signatures can be found. We study viable chameleon potentials consistent with a number of recent observational and experimental bounds. A novel chameleon field potential, motivated by f(R) gravity, is constructed where observable cosmological signatures are present both at the background evolution and in the growth rate of the perturbations. We study the evolution of matter density perturbations on low redshifts for this potential and show that the growth index today γ 0 can have significant dispersion on scales relevant for large scale structures. The values of γ 0 can be even smaller than 0.2 with large variations of γ on very low redshifts for the model parameters constrained by local gravity tests. This gives a possibility to clearly distinguish these chameleon models from the Λ-cold-dark-matter (ΛCDM) model in future high-precision observations.
Systems Engineering Model for ART Energy Conversion
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Mendez Cruz, Carmen Margarita [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Rochau, Gary E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Wilson, Mollye C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
2017-02-01
The near-term objective of the EC team is to establish an operating, commercially scalable Recompression Closed Brayton Cycle (RCBC) to be constructed for the NE - STEP demonstration system (demo) with the lowest risk possible. A systems engineering approach is recommended to ensure adequate requirements gathering, documentation, and mode ling that supports technology development relevant to advanced reactors while supporting crosscut interests in potential applications. A holistic systems engineering model was designed for the ART Energy Conversion program by leveraging Concurrent Engineering, Balance Model, Simplified V Model, and Project Management principles. The resulting model supports the identification and validation of lifecycle Brayton systems requirements, and allows designers to detail system-specific components relevant to the current stage in the lifecycle, while maintaining a holistic view of all system elements.
Application of the resonating Hartree-Fock random phase approximation to the Lipkin model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nishiyama, S.; Ishida, K.; Ido, M.
1996-01-01
We have applied the resonating Hartree-Fock (Res-HF) approximation to the exactly solvable Lipkin model by utilizing a newly developed orbital-optimization algorithm. The Res-HF wave function was superposed by two Slater determinants (S-dets) which give two corresponding local energy minima of monopole ''deformations''. The self-consistent Res-HF calculation gives an excellent ground-state correlation energy. There exist excitations due to small vibrational fluctuations of the orbitals and mixing coefficients around their stationary values. They are described by a new approximation called the resonating Hartree-Fock random phase approximation (Res-HF RPA). Matrices of the second-order variation of the Res-HF energy have the same structures as those of the Res-HF RPA's matrices. The quadratic steepest descent of the Res-HF energy in the orbital optimization is considered to include certainly both effects of RPA-type fluctuations up to higher orders and their mode-mode couplings. It is a very important and interesting task to apply the Res-HF RPA to the Lipkin model with the use of the stationary values and to prove the above argument. It turns out that the Res-HF RPA works far better than the usual HF RPA and the renormalized one. We also show some important features of the Res-HF RPA. (orig.)
Critical Behavior of the Annealed Ising Model on Random Regular Graphs
Can, Van Hao
2017-11-01
In Giardinà et al. (ALEA Lat Am J Probab Math Stat 13(1):121-161, 2016), the authors have defined an annealed Ising model on random graphs and proved limit theorems for the magnetization of this model on some random graphs including random 2-regular graphs. Then in Can (Annealed limit theorems for the Ising model on random regular graphs, arXiv:1701.08639, 2017), we generalized their results to the class of all random regular graphs. In this paper, we study the critical behavior of this model. In particular, we determine the critical exponents and prove a non standard limit theorem stating that the magnetization scaled by n^{3/4} converges to a specific random variable, with n the number of vertices of random regular graphs.
Design of Energy Aware Adder Circuits Considering Random Intra-Die Process Variations
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marco Lanuzza
2011-04-01
Full Text Available Energy consumption is one of the main barriers to current high-performance designs. Moreover, the increased variability experienced in advanced process technologies implies further timing yield concerns and therefore intensifies this obstacle. Thus, proper techniques to achieve robust designs are a critical requirement for integrated circuit success. In this paper, the influence of intra-die random process variations is analyzed considering the particular case of the design of energy aware adder circuits. Five well known adder circuits were designed exploiting an industrial 45 nm static complementary metal-oxide semiconductor (CMOS standard cell library. The designed adders were comparatively evaluated under different energy constraints. As a main result, the performed analysis demonstrates that, for a given energy budget, simpler circuits (which are conventionally identified as low-energy slow architectures operating at higher power supply voltages can achieve a timing yield significantly better than more complex faster adders when used in low-power design with supply voltages lower than nominal.
Random Matrix Theory of the Energy-Level Statistics of Disordered Systems at the Anderson Transition
Canali, C. M.
1995-01-01
We consider a family of random matrix ensembles (RME) invariant under similarity transformations and described by the probability density $P({\\bf H})= \\exp[-{\\rm Tr}V({\\bf H})]$. Dyson's mean field theory (MFT) of the corresponding plasma model of eigenvalues is generalized to the case of weak confining potential, $V(\\epsilon)\\sim {A\\over 2}\\ln ^2(\\epsilon)$. The eigenvalue statistics derived from MFT are shown to deviate substantially from the classical Wigner-Dyson statistics when $A
Model calibration for building energy efficiency simulation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mustafaraj, Giorgio; Marini, Dashamir; Costa, Andrea; Keane, Marcus
2014-01-01
Highlights: • Developing a 3D model relating to building architecture, occupancy and HVAC operation. • Two calibration stages developed, final model providing accurate results. • Using an onsite weather station for generating the weather data file in EnergyPlus. • Predicting thermal behaviour of underfloor heating, heat pump and natural ventilation. • Monthly energy saving opportunities related to heat pump of 20–27% was identified. - Abstract: This research work deals with an Environmental Research Institute (ERI) building where an underfloor heating system and natural ventilation are the main systems used to maintain comfort condition throughout 80% of the building areas. Firstly, this work involved developing a 3D model relating to building architecture, occupancy and HVAC operation. Secondly, the calibration methodology, which consists of two levels, was then applied in order to insure accuracy and reduce the likelihood of errors. To further improve the accuracy of calibration a historical weather data file related to year 2011, was created from the on-site local weather station of ERI building. After applying the second level of calibration process, the values of Mean bias Error (MBE) and Cumulative Variation of Root Mean Squared Error (CV(RMSE)) on hourly based analysis for heat pump electricity consumption varied within the following ranges: (MBE) hourly from −5.6% to 7.5% and CV(RMSE) hourly from 7.3% to 25.1%. Finally, the building was simulated with EnergyPlus to identify further possibilities of energy savings supplied by a water to water heat pump to underfloor heating system. It found that electricity consumption savings from the heat pump can vary between 20% and 27% on monthly bases
Annealed central limit theorems for the ising model on random graphs
Giardinà, C.; Giberti, C.; van der Hofstad, R.W.; Prioriello, M.L.
2016-01-01
The aim of this paper is to prove central limit theorems with respect to the annealed measure for the magnetization rescaled by √N of Ising models on random graphs. More precisely, we consider the general rank-1 inhomogeneous random graph (or generalized random graph), the 2-regular configuration
Force Limited Random Vibration Test of TESS Camera Mass Model
Karlicek, Alexandra; Hwang, James Ho-Jin; Rey, Justin J.
2015-01-01
The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) is a spaceborne instrument consisting of four wide field-of-view-CCD cameras dedicated to the discovery of exoplanets around the brightest stars. As part of the environmental testing campaign, force limiting was used to simulate a realistic random vibration launch environment. While the force limit vibration test method is a standard approach used at multiple institutions including Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), European Space Research and Technology Center (ESTEC), and Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), it is still difficult to find an actual implementation process in the literature. This paper describes the step-by-step process on how the force limit method was developed and applied on the TESS camera mass model. The process description includes the design of special fixtures to mount the test article for properly installing force transducers, development of the force spectral density using the semi-empirical method, estimation of the fuzzy factor (C2) based on the mass ratio between the supporting structure and the test article, subsequent validating of the C2 factor during the vibration test, and calculation of the C.G. accelerations using the Root Mean Square (RMS) reaction force in the spectral domain and the peak reaction force in the time domain.
Towards low carbon business park energy systems: Classification of techno-economic energy models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Timmerman, Jonas; Vandevelde, Lieven; Van Eetvelde, Greet
2014-01-01
To mitigate climate destabilisation, human-induced greenhouse gas emissions urgently need to be curbed. A major share of these emissions originates from the industry and energy sectors. Hence, a low carbon shift in industrial and business park energy systems is called for. Low carbon business parks minimise energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by maximal exploitation of local renewable energy production, enhanced energy efficiency, and inter-firm heat exchange, combined in a collective energy system. The holistic approach of techno-economic energy models facilitates the design of such systems, while yielding an optimal trade-off between energetic, economic and environmental performances. However, no models custom-tailored for industrial park energy systems are detected in literature. In this paper, existing energy model classifications are scanned for adequate model characteristics and accordingly, a confined number of models are selected and described. Subsequently, a practical typology is proposed, existing of energy system evolution, optimisation, simulation, accounting and integration models, and key model features are compared. Finally, important features for a business park energy model are identified. - Highlights: • A holistic perspective on (low carbon) business park energy systems is introduced. • A new categorisation of techno-economic energy models is proposed. • Model characteristics are described per model category. • Essential model features for business park energy system modelling are identified. • A strategy towards a techno-economic energy model for business parks is proposed
Low-energy neutron-induced single-event upsets in static random access memory
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Guo Xiaoqiang; Guo Hongxia; Wang Guizhen; Ling Dongsheng; Chen Wei; Bai Xiaoyan; Yang Shanchao; Liu Yan
2009-01-01
The visual analysis method of data process was provided for neutron-induced single-event upset(SEU) in static random access memory(SRAM). The SEU effects of six CMOS SRAMs with different feature size(from 0.13 μm to 1.50 μm) were studied. The SEU experiments were performed using the neutron radiation environment at Xi'an pulsed reactor. And the dependence of low-energy neutron-induced SEU cross section on SRAM's feature size was given. The results indicate that the decreased critical charge is the dominant factor for the increase of single event effect sensitivity of SRAM devices with decreased feature size. Small-sized SRAM devices are more sensitive than large-sized ones to single event effect induced by low-energy neutrons. (authors)
93-106, 2015 93 Multilevel random effect and marginal models
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Multilevel random effect and marginal models for longitudinal data ... and random effect models that take the correlation among measurements of the same subject ... comparing the level of redness, pain and irritability ... clinical trial evaluating the safety profile of a new .... likelihood-based methods to compare models and.
Energy Efficiency Model for Induction Furnace
Dey, Asit Kr
2018-01-01
In this paper, a system of a solar induction furnace unit was design to find out a new solution for the existing AC power consuming heating process through Supervisory control and data acquisition system. This unit can be connected directly to the DC system without any internal conversion inside the device. The performance of the new system solution is compared with the existing one in terms of power consumption and losses. This work also investigated energy save, system improvement, process control model in a foundry induction furnace heating framework corresponding to PV solar power supply. The results are analysed for long run in terms of saving energy and integrated process system. The data acquisition system base solar foundry plant is an extremely multifaceted system that can be run over an almost innumerable range of operating conditions, each characterized by specific energy consumption. Determining ideal operating conditions is a key challenge that requires the involvement of the latest automation technologies, each one contributing to allow not only the acquisition, processing, storage, retrieval and visualization of data, but also the implementation of automatic control strategies that can expand the achievement envelope in terms of melting process, safety and energy efficiency.
Energy exchange in thermal energy atom-surface scattering: impulsive models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Barker, J.A.; Auerbach, D.J.
1979-01-01
Energy exchange in thermal energy atom surface collisions is studied using impulsive ('hard cube' and 'hard sphere') models. Both models reproduce the observed nearly linear relation between outgoing and incoming energies. In addition, the hard-sphere model accounts for the widths of the outcoming energy distributions. (Auth.)
van Aggelen, Helen; Yang, Yang; Yang, Weitao
2014-05-14
Despite their unmatched success for many applications, commonly used local, semi-local, and hybrid density functionals still face challenges when it comes to describing long-range interactions, static correlation, and electron delocalization. Density functionals of both the occupied and virtual orbitals are able to address these problems. The particle-hole (ph-) Random Phase Approximation (RPA), a functional of occupied and virtual orbitals, has recently known a revival within the density functional theory community. Following up on an idea introduced in our recent communication [H. van Aggelen, Y. Yang, and W. Yang, Phys. Rev. A 88, 030501 (2013)], we formulate more general adiabatic connections for the correlation energy in terms of pairing matrix fluctuations described by the particle-particle (pp-) propagator. With numerical examples of the pp-RPA, the lowest-order approximation to the pp-propagator, we illustrate the potential of density functional approximations based on pairing matrix fluctuations. The pp-RPA is size-extensive, self-interaction free, fully anti-symmetric, describes the strong static correlation limit in H2, and eliminates delocalization errors in H2(+) and other single-bond systems. It gives surprisingly good non-bonded interaction energies--competitive with the ph-RPA--with the correct R(-6) asymptotic decay as a function of the separation R, which we argue is mainly attributable to its correct second-order energy term. While the pp-RPA tends to underestimate absolute correlation energies, it gives good relative energies: much better atomization energies than the ph-RPA, as it has no tendency to underbind, and reaction energies of similar quality. The adiabatic connection in terms of pairing matrix fluctuation paves the way for promising new density functional approximations.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Aggelen, Helen van; Yang, Yang; Yang, Weitao
2014-01-01
Despite their unmatched success for many applications, commonly used local, semi-local, and hybrid density functionals still face challenges when it comes to describing long-range interactions, static correlation, and electron delocalization. Density functionals of both the occupied and virtual orbitals are able to address these problems. The particle-hole (ph-) Random Phase Approximation (RPA), a functional of occupied and virtual orbitals, has recently known a revival within the density functional theory community. Following up on an idea introduced in our recent communication [H. van Aggelen, Y. Yang, and W. Yang, Phys. Rev. A 88, 030501 (2013)], we formulate more general adiabatic connections for the correlation energy in terms of pairing matrix fluctuations described by the particle-particle (pp-) propagator. With numerical examples of the pp-RPA, the lowest-order approximation to the pp-propagator, we illustrate the potential of density functional approximations based on pairing matrix fluctuations. The pp-RPA is size-extensive, self-interaction free, fully anti-symmetric, describes the strong static correlation limit in H 2 , and eliminates delocalization errors in H 2 + and other single-bond systems. It gives surprisingly good non-bonded interaction energies – competitive with the ph-RPA – with the correct R −6 asymptotic decay as a function of the separation R, which we argue is mainly attributable to its correct second-order energy term. While the pp-RPA tends to underestimate absolute correlation energies, it gives good relative energies: much better atomization energies than the ph-RPA, as it has no tendency to underbind, and reaction energies of similar quality. The adiabatic connection in terms of pairing matrix fluctuation paves the way for promising new density functional approximations
Active video games and energy balance in male adolescents: a randomized crossover trial.
Gribbon, Aidan; McNeil, Jessica; Jay, Ollie; Tremblay, Mark S; Chaput, Jean-Philippe
2015-06-01
Active video games (AVGs) have been shown to acutely increase energy expenditure when compared with seated video games; however, the influence of AVGs on compensatory adjustments in energy intake and expenditure is largely unknown. The aim was to examine the acute effects of AVGs on energy intake and expenditure. With the use of a randomized crossover design, 26 male adolescents (mean ± SD age: 14.5 ± 1.4 y) completed three 1-h experimental conditions: resting control, seated video game play (Xbox 360; Microsoft), and AVG play (Kinect Adventures on Xbox 360) followed by an ad libitum lunch. A validated food menu was used to assess food intake immediately after the conditions and for the remainder of the day, and a dietary record was used for the subsequent 3-d period. Energy expenditure was measured by using portable indirect calorimetry throughout each experimental condition, and an accelerometer was used to assess the subsequent 3-d period. Appetite sensations were assessed by using visual analog scales at different time points during the testing day. The primary outcomes were acute (immediately after the conditions and 24-h) and short-term (3-d) energy intake and expenditure. Energy expenditure was significantly higher (~145%; P 0.49) and 3 d after the experimental conditions (~3%; P > 0.82). No significant differences were observed in absolute energy intake immediately after the conditions (~2%; P > 0.94) or in absolute energy intake 24 h (~5%; P > 0.63) and 3 d (~9%; P > 0.53) after the experimental conditions. Finally, appetite sensations were similar between conditions at all time points (P > 0.05). The increase in energy expenditure promoted by a single session of Kinect AVG play is not associated with increased food intake but is compensated for after the intervention, resulting in no measurable change in energy balance after 24 h. These results suggest that the potential of Kinect to reduce the energy gap underlying weight gain is offset within 24 h in
Energy Balance Models and Planetary Dynamics
Domagal-Goldman, Shawn
2012-01-01
We know that planetary dynamics can have a significant affect on the climate of planets. Planetary dynamics dominate the glacial-interglacial periods on Earth, leaving a significant imprint on the geological record. They have also been demonstrated to have a driving influence on the climates of other planets in our solar system. We should therefore expect th.ere to be similar relationships on extrasolar planets. Here we describe a simple energy balance model that can predict the growth and thickness of glaciers, and their feedbacks on climate. We will also describe model changes that we have made to include planetary dynamics effects. This is the model we will use at the start of our collaboration to handle the influence of dynamics on climate.
Modelling UK energy demand to 2000
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Thomas, S.D.
1980-01-01
A recent long-term demand forecast for the UK was made by Cheshire and Surrey. (SPRU Occasional Paper Series No.5, Science Policy Research Unit, Univ. Of Sussex, 1978.) Although they adopted a sectoral approach their study leaves some questions unanswered. Do they succeed in their aim of making all their assumptions fully explicit. How sensitive are their estimates to changes in assumptions and policies. Are important problems and 'turning points' fully identified in the period up to and immediately beyond their time horizon of 2000. The author addresses these questions by using a computer model based on the study by Cheshire and Surrey. This article is a shortened version of the report, S.D. Thomas, 'Modelling UK Energy Demand to 2000', Operational Research, Univ. of Sussex, Brighton, UK, 1979, in which full details of the author's model are given. Copies are available from the author. (author)
Modelling UK energy demand to 2000
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Thomas, S D [Sussex Univ., Brighton (UK)
1980-03-01
A recent long-term demand forecast for the UK was made by Cheshire and Surrey. (SPRU Occasional Paper Series No.5, Science Policy Research Unit, Univ. Of Sussex, 1978.) Although they adopted a sectoral approach their study leaves some questions unanswered. Do they succeed in their aim of making all their assumptions fully explicit. How sensitive are their estimates to changes in assumptions and policies. Are important problems and 'turning points' fully identified in the period up to and immediately beyond their time horizon of 2000. The author addresses these questions by using a computer model based on the study by Cheshire and Surrey. This article is a shortened version of the report, S.D. Thomas, 'Modelling UK Energy Demand to 2000', Operational Research, Univ. of Sussex, Brighton, UK, 1979, in which full details of the author's model are given. Copies are available from the author.
Modeling energy flexibility of low energy buildings utilizing thermal mass
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Foteinaki, Kyriaki; Heller, Alfred; Rode, Carsten
2016-01-01
In the future energy system a considerable increase in the penetration of renewable energy is expected, challenging the stability of the system, as both production and consumption will have fluctuating patterns. Hence, the concept of energy flexibility will be necessary in order for the consumption...... to match the production patterns, shifting demand from on-peak hours to off-peak hours. Buildings could act as flexibility suppliers to the energy system, through load shifting potential, provided that the large thermal mass of the building stock could be utilized for energy storage. In the present study...... the load shifting potential of an apartment of a low energy building in Copenhagen is assessed, utilizing the heat storage capacity of the thermal mass when the heating system is switched off for relieving the energy system. It is shown that when using a 4-hour preheating period before switching off...
The multi-factor energy input–output model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Guevara, Zeus; Domingos, Tiago
2017-01-01
Energy input–output analysis (EIO analysis) is a noteworthy tool for the analysis of the role of energy in the economy. However, it has relied on models that provide a limited description of energy flows in the economic system and do not allow an adequate analysis of energy efficiency. This paper introduces a novel energy input–output model, the multi-factor energy input–output model (MF-EIO model), which is obtained from a partitioning of a hybrid-unit input–output system of the economy. This model improves on current models by describing the energy flows according to the processes of energy conversion and the levels of energy use in the economy. It characterizes the vector of total energy output as a function of seven factors: two energy efficiency indicators; two characteristics of end-use energy consumption; and three economic features of the rest of the economy. Moreover, it is consistent with the standard model for EIO analysis, i.e., the hybrid-unit model. This paper also introduces an approximate version of the MF-EIO model, which is equivalent to the former under equal energy prices for industries and final consumers, but requires less data processing. The latter is composed by two linked models: a model of the energy sector in physical units, and a model of the rest of the economy in monetary units. In conclusion, the proposed modelling framework improves EIO analysis and extends EIO applications to the accounting for energy efficiency of the economy. - Highlights: • A novel energy input–output model is introduced. • It allows a more adequate analysis of energy flows than current models. • It describes energy flows according to processes of energy conversion and use. • It can be used for other environmental applications (material use and emissions). • An approximate version of the model is introduced, simpler and less data intensive.
Introduction to conformal invariance in statistical mechanics and to random surface models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
David, F.
1995-01-01
In the first part of these lectures I give a brief and somewhat superficial introduction to the techniques of conformal invariance and to a few applications in statistical mechanics in two dimensions. My purpose is to introduce the basic ideas and some standard results for the students who are not familiar with the theory, and to introduce concepts and tools which will be useful for the other lecturers, rather than to give a complete and up to date review of the subject. In the second part I discuss several problems in the statistical mechanics of two dimensional random surfaces and membranes. As an introduction, I present some basic facts about the statistical mechanics of one-dimensional objects and polymers, which are classical examples of objects with critical properties. Then I emphasize the special role of curvature energy and of the elastic energy associated with the internal structure of membranes, and the corresponding models of random surfaces. Finally, I discuss the specific problem of self-avoiding tethered surfaces, whose critical properties are still poorly understood, and for which the applicability of some basic techniques of field theory, such as renormalization group calculations, has been understood only recently. (orig.)
Sørensen, L B; Astrup, A
2011-01-01
Objective: To compare the effect of dark and milk chocolate on appetite sensations and energy intake at an ad libitum test meal in healthy, normal-weight men. Subjects/methods: A total of 16 young, healthy, normal-weight men participated in a randomized, crossover study. Test meals were 100 g of either milk (2285 kJ) or dark chocolate (2502 kJ). Visual-analogue scales were used to record appetite sensations before and after the test meal was consumed and subsequently every 30 min for 5 h. An ad libitum meal was served 2 h after the test meal had been consumed. Results: The participants felt more satiated, less hungry, and had lower ratings of prospective food consumption after consumption of the dark chocolate than after the milk chocolate. Ratings of the desire to eat something sweet, fatty or savoury were all lower after consumption of the dark chocolate. Energy intake at the ad libitum meal was 17% lower after consumption of the dark chocolate than after the milk chocolate (P=0.002). If the energy provided by the chocolate is included in the calculation, the energy intake after consumption of the dark chocolate was still 8% lower than after the milk chocolate (P=0.01). The dark chocolate load resulted in an overall energy difference of −584 kJ (95% confidence interval (−1027;−141)) during the test period. Conclusion: In the present study, dark chocolate promotes satiety, lowers the desire to eat something sweet, and suppresses energy intake compared with milk chocolate. PMID:23455041
Compensatory mechanisms activated with intermittent energy restriction: A randomized control trial.
Coutinho, Sílvia Ribeiro; Halset, Eline Holli; Gåsbakk, Sigrid; Rehfeld, Jens F; Kulseng, Bård; Truby, Helen; Martins, Cátia
2018-06-01
Strong compensatory responses, with reduced resting metabolic rate (RMR), increased exercise efficiency (ExEff) and appetite, are activated when weight loss (WL) is achieved with continuous energy restriction (CER), which try to restore energy balance. Intermittent energy restriction (IER), where short spells of energy restriction are interspaced by periods of habitual energy intake, may offer some protection in minimizing those responses. We aimed to compare the effect of IER versus CER on body composition and the compensatory responses induced by WL. 35 adults (age: 39 ± 9 y) with obesity (BMI: 36 ± 4 kg/m 2 ) were randomized to lose a similar weight with an IER (N = 18) or a CER (N = 17) diet over a 12 week period. Macronutrient composition and overall energy restriction (33% reduction) were similar between groups. Body weight/composition, RMR, fasting respiratory quotient (RQ), ExEff (10, 25, and 50 W), subjective appetite ratings (hunger, fullness, desire to eat, and prospective food consumption (PFC)), and appetite-regulating hormones (active ghrelin (AG), cholecystokinin (CCK), total peptide YY (PYY), active glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1), and insulin) were measured before and after WL. Changes in body weight (≈12.5% WL) and composition were similar in both groups. Fasting RQ and ExEff at 10 W increased in both groups. Losing weight, either by IER or CER dieting, did not induce significant changes in subjective appetite ratings. RMR decreased and ExEff at 25 and 50 W increased (P intermittent, does not appear to modulate the compensatory mechanisms activated by weight loss. NCT02169778 (the study was registered in clinicaltrial.gov). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.
Sørensen, L B; Astrup, A
2011-12-05
To compare the effect of dark and milk chocolate on appetite sensations and energy intake at an ad libitum test meal in healthy, normal-weight men. A total of 16 young, healthy, normal-weight men participated in a randomized, crossover study. Test meals were 100 g of either milk (2285 kJ) or dark chocolate (2502 kJ). Visual-analogue scales were used to record appetite sensations before and after the test meal was consumed and subsequently every 30 min for 5 h. An ad libitum meal was served 2 h after the test meal had been consumed. The participants felt more satiated, less hungry, and had lower ratings of prospective food consumption after consumption of the dark chocolate than after the milk chocolate. Ratings of the desire to eat something sweet, fatty or savoury were all lower after consumption of the dark chocolate. Energy intake at the ad libitum meal was 17% lower after consumption of the dark chocolate than after the milk chocolate (P=0.002). If the energy provided by the chocolate is included in the calculation, the energy intake after consumption of the dark chocolate was still 8% lower than after the milk chocolate (P=0.01). The dark chocolate load resulted in an overall energy difference of -584 kJ (95% confidence interval (-1027;-141)) during the test period. In the present study, dark chocolate promotes satiety, lowers the desire to eat something sweet, and suppresses energy intake compared with milk chocolate.
MODELING URBAN DYNAMICS USING RANDOM FOREST: IMPLEMENTING ROC AND TOC FOR MODEL EVALUATION
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Ahmadlou
2016-06-01
Full Text Available The importance of spatial accuracy of land use/cover change maps necessitates the use of high performance models. To reach this goal, calibrating machine learning (ML approaches to model land use/cover conversions have received increasing interest among the scholars. This originates from the strength of these techniques as they powerfully account for the complex relationships underlying urban dynamics. Compared to other ML techniques, random forest has rarely been used for modeling urban growth. This paper, drawing on information from the multi-temporal Landsat satellite images of 1985, 2000 and 2015, calibrates a random forest regression (RFR model to quantify the variable importance and simulation of urban change spatial patterns. The results and performance of RFR model were evaluated using two complementary tools, relative operating characteristics (ROC and total operating characteristics (TOC, by overlaying the map of observed change and the modeled suitability map for land use change (error map. The suitability map produced by RFR model showed 82.48% area under curve for the ROC model which indicates a very good performance and highlights its appropriateness for simulating urban growth.
Model for optimum design of standalone hybrid renewable energy ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
An optimization model for the design of a hybrid renewable energy microgrid ... and increasing the rated power of the wind energy conversion system (WECS) or solar ... a 70% reduction in gas emissions and an 80% reduction in energy costs.
Polish model of electric energy market-bulk energy tariff
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Malysa, H.
1994-01-01
The key problem of electric energy supply industry reform is gradually launching a competitive wholesale generation market since 1994. In process of this transformation the important role plays bulk energy supply tariff in electricity transactions between Polish Power Grid Company and distribution and retail supply companies (distributors). Premises, factors and constrains having influence on shaping of the bulk energy supply tariff are presented. A brief outline of economic foundation for calculation of demand charges and energy rate is given. Particular attention has been paid to description of bulk energy supply tariff structure. The scope and manner of adjustment of this tariff to circumstances and constrains in the initial stage of the wholesale electric energy market have been described as well. (author). 8 refs
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chae, Kyu Nam
1995-02-01
An energy demand and supply analysis is carried out to establish the future nuclear energy system of Korea in the situation of environmental restriction and resource depletion. Based on the useful energy intensity concept, a long-term energy demand forecasting model FIN2USE is developed to integrate with a supply model. The energy supply optimization model MESSAGE is improved to evaluate the role of nuclear energy system in Korean long-term energy supply strategy. Long-term demand for useful energy used as an exogeneous input of the energy supply model is derived from the trend of useful energy intensity by sectors and energy carriers. Supply-side optimization is performed for the overall energy system linked with the reactor and nuclear fuel cycle strategy. The limitation of fossil fuel resources and the CO 2 emission constraints are reflected as determinants of the future energy system. As a result of optimization of energy system using linear programming with the objective of total discounted system cost, the optimal energy system is obtained with detailed results on the nuclear sector for various scenarios. It is shown that the relative importance of nuclear energy would increase especially in the cases of CO 2 emission constraint. It is concluded that nuclear reactor strategy and fuel cycle strategy should be incorporated with national energy strategy and be changed according to environmental restriction and energy demand scenarios. It is shown that this modelling approach is suitable for a decision support system of nuclear energy policy
The long-run forecasting of energy prices using the model of shifting trend
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Radchenko, Stanislav
2005-01-01
improve the long-term forecasts, I suggest to combine forecasts from the shifting trend model, random walk model, and an autoregressive model. The main results may be summarized as follows. The shifting trend model offers an alternative approach to construct long-run forecasts of energy prices which give additional insights about the competitive nature of energy markets. The constructed forecasts seem to be unaffected by the presence of large long-lived increases and decreases in energy prices. Also, these forecasts may be combined with the forecasts from random walk model and univariate autoregressive model to substantially decrease the mean squared forecast error (MSFE) of energy forecasts. (Author)
Entanglement in holographic dark energy models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Horvat, R.
2010-01-01
We study a process of equilibration of holographic dark energy (HDE) with the cosmic horizon around the dark-energy dominated epoch. This process is characterized by a huge amount of information conveyed across the horizon, filling thereby a large gap in entropy between the system on the brink of experiencing a sudden collapse to a black hole and the black hole itself. At the same time, even in the absence of interaction between dark matter and dark energy, such a process marks a strong jump in the entanglement entropy, measuring the quantum-mechanical correlations between the horizon and its interior. Although the effective quantum field theory (QFT) with a peculiar relationship between the UV and IR cutoffs, a framework underlying all HDE models, may formally account for such a huge shift in the number of distinct quantum states, we show that the scope of such a framework becomes tremendously restricted, devoid virtually any application in other cosmological epochs or particle-physics phenomena. The problem of negative entropies for the non-phantom stuff is also discussed.
Entanglement in holographic dark energy models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Horvat, R., E-mail: horvat@lei3.irb.h [Rudjer Boskovic Institute, P.O. Box 180, 10002 Zagreb (Croatia)
2010-10-18
We study a process of equilibration of holographic dark energy (HDE) with the cosmic horizon around the dark-energy dominated epoch. This process is characterized by a huge amount of information conveyed across the horizon, filling thereby a large gap in entropy between the system on the brink of experiencing a sudden collapse to a black hole and the black hole itself. At the same time, even in the absence of interaction between dark matter and dark energy, such a process marks a strong jump in the entanglement entropy, measuring the quantum-mechanical correlations between the horizon and its interior. Although the effective quantum field theory (QFT) with a peculiar relationship between the UV and IR cutoffs, a framework underlying all HDE models, may formally account for such a huge shift in the number of distinct quantum states, we show that the scope of such a framework becomes tremendously restricted, devoid virtually any application in other cosmological epochs or particle-physics phenomena. The problem of negative entropies for the non-phantom stuff is also discussed.
Modeling of greenhouse with PCM energy storage
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Najjar, Atyah; Hasan, Afif
2008-01-01
Greenhouses provide a controlled environment that is suitable for plants growth and cultivation. In this paper the maximum temperature change inside the greenhouse is to be reduced by the use of energy storage in a phase change material PCM. A mathematical model is developed for the storage material and for the greenhouse. The coupled models are solved using numerical methods and Java code program. The effect of different parameters on the inside greenhouse temperature is investigated. The temperature swing between maximum and minimum values during 24 h can be reduced by 3-5 deg. C using the PCM storage. This can be improved further by enhancing the heat transfer between the PCM storage and the air inside the greenhouse
Modeling of greenhouse with PCM energy storage
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Najjar, Atyah [Computation Science, Birzeit University, Birzeit (PS); Hasan, Afif [Mechanical Engineering Department, Birzeit University, Birzeit (PS)
2008-11-15
Greenhouses provide a controlled environment that is suitable for plants growth and cultivation. In this paper the maximum temperature change inside the greenhouse is to be reduced by the use of energy storage in a phase change material PCM. A mathematical model is developed for the storage material and for the greenhouse. The coupled models are solved using numerical methods and Java code program. The effect of different parameters on the inside greenhouse temperature is investigated. The temperature swing between maximum and minimum values during 24 h can be reduced by 3-5 C using the PCM storage. This can be improved further by enhancing the heat transfer between the PCM storage and the air inside the greenhouse. (author)
Random effects coefficient of determination for mixed and meta-analysis models.
Demidenko, Eugene; Sargent, James; Onega, Tracy
2012-01-01
The key feature of a mixed model is the presence of random effects. We have developed a coefficient, called the random effects coefficient of determination, [Formula: see text], that estimates the proportion of the conditional variance of the dependent variable explained by random effects. This coefficient takes values from 0 to 1 and indicates how strong the random effects are. The difference from the earlier suggested fixed effects coefficient of determination is emphasized. If [Formula: see text] is close to 0, there is weak support for random effects in the model because the reduction of the variance of the dependent variable due to random effects is small; consequently, random effects may be ignored and the model simplifies to standard linear regression. The value of [Formula: see text] apart from 0 indicates the evidence of the variance reduction in support of the mixed model. If random effects coefficient of determination is close to 1 the variance of random effects is very large and random effects turn into free fixed effects-the model can be estimated using the dummy variable approach. We derive explicit formulas for [Formula: see text] in three special cases: the random intercept model, the growth curve model, and meta-analysis model. Theoretical results are illustrated with three mixed model examples: (1) travel time to the nearest cancer center for women with breast cancer in the U.S., (2) cumulative time watching alcohol related scenes in movies among young U.S. teens, as a risk factor for early drinking onset, and (3) the classic example of the meta-analysis model for combination of 13 studies on tuberculosis vaccine.
Data mining, mining data : energy consumption modelling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Dessureault, S. [Arizona Univ., Tucson, AZ (United States)
2007-09-15
Most modern mining operations are accumulating large amounts of data on production and business processes. Data, however, provides value only if it can be translated into information that appropriate users can utilize. This paper emphasized that a new technological focus should emerge, notably how to concentrate data into information; analyze information sufficiently to become knowledge; and, act on that knowledge. Researchers at the Mining Information Systems and Operations Management (MISOM) laboratory at the University of Arizona have created a method to transform data into action. The data-to-action approach was exercised in the development of an energy consumption model (ECM), in partnership with a major US-based copper mining company, 2 software companies, and the MISOM laboratory. The approach begins by integrating several key data sources using data warehousing techniques, and increasing the existing level of integration and data cleaning. An online analytical processing (OLAP) cube was also created to investigate the data and identify a subset of several million records. Data mining algorithms were applied using the information that was isolated by the OLAP cube. The data mining results showed that traditional cost drivers of energy consumption are poor predictors. A comparison was made between traditional methods of predicting energy consumption and the prediction formed using data mining. Traditionally, in the mines for which data were available, monthly averages of tons and distance are used to predict diesel fuel consumption. However, this article showed that new information technology can be used to incorporate many more variables into the budgeting process, resulting in more accurate predictions. The ECM helped mine planners improve the prediction of energy use through more data integration, measure development, and workflow analysis. 5 refs., 11 figs.
Cardiovascular Effects of Energy Drinks in Familial Long QT Syndrome: A Randomized Cross-Over Study.
Gray, Belinda; Ingles, Jodie; Medi, Caroline; Driscoll, Timothy; Semsarian, Christopher
2017-03-15
Caffeinated energy drinks may trigger serious cardiac effects. The aim of this study was to determine the cardiovascular effects of caffeinated energy drink consumption in patients with familial long QT syndrome (LQTS). From 2014-2016, 24 LQTS patients aged 16-50 years were recruited to a randomized, double-blind, cross-over study of energy drink (ED) versus control (CD) with participants acting as their own controls (one week washout). The primary study outcome was an increase in corrected QT interval (QTc) by >20ms. Secondary outcomes were changes in systolic and diastolic blood pressure. In 24 patients with LQTS (no dropout), mean age was 29±9 years, 13/24 (54%) were female, and 8/24 (33%) were probands. Intention to treat analysis revealed no significant change in QTc with ED compared with CD (12±28ms vs 16±27ms, 3% vs 4%, p=0.71). The systolic and diastolic blood pressure significantly increased with ED compared to CD (peak change 7±16mmHg vs 1±16mmHg, 6% vs 0.8%, p=0.046 and 8±10 vs 2±9mmHg, 11% vs 3% p=0.01 respectively). These changes correlated with significant increases in serum caffeine (14.6±11.3 vs 0.5±0.1μmol/L, penergy drink consumption. Caffeinated energy drinks have significant haemodynamic effects in patients with LQTS, especifically an acute increase in blood pressure. Since dangerous QTc prolongation was seen in some LQTS patients, we recommend caution in young patients with LQTS consuming energy drinks. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Modeling and optimizing of the random atomic spin gyroscope drift based on the atomic spin gyroscope
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Quan, Wei; Lv, Lin, E-mail: lvlinlch1990@163.com; Liu, Baiqi [School of Instrument Science and Opto-Electronics Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100191 (China)
2014-11-15
In order to improve the atom spin gyroscope's operational accuracy and compensate the random error caused by the nonlinear and weak-stability characteristic of the random atomic spin gyroscope (ASG) drift, the hybrid random drift error model based on autoregressive (AR) and genetic programming (GP) + genetic algorithm (GA) technique is established. The time series of random ASG drift is taken as the study object. The time series of random ASG drift is acquired by analyzing and preprocessing the measured data of ASG. The linear section model is established based on AR technique. After that, the nonlinear section model is built based on GP technique and GA is used to optimize the coefficients of the mathematic expression acquired by GP in order to obtain a more accurate model. The simulation result indicates that this hybrid model can effectively reflect the characteristics of the ASG's random drift. The square error of the ASG's random drift is reduced by 92.40%. Comparing with the AR technique and the GP + GA technique, the random drift is reduced by 9.34% and 5.06%, respectively. The hybrid modeling method can effectively compensate the ASG's random drift and improve the stability of the system.
Model projections for household energy use in India
van Ruijven, B.J.; van Vuuren, D.P.; de Vries, B.J.M.; Isaac, M.; van der Sluijs, J.P.; Lucas, P.L.; Balachandra, P.
2011-01-01
Energy use in developing countries is heterogeneous across households. Present day global energy models are mostly too aggregate to account for this heterogeneity. Here, a bottom-up model for residential energy use that starts from key dynamic concepts on energy use in developing countries is
Black Hole Universe Model and Dark Energy
Zhang, Tianxi
2011-01-01
Considering black hole as spacetime and slightly modifying the big bang theory, the author has recently developed a new cosmological model called black hole universe, which is consistent with Mach principle and Einsteinian general relativity and self consistently explains various observations of the universe without difficulties. According to this model, the universe originated from a hot star-like black hole and gradually grew through a supermassive black hole to the present universe by accreting ambient material and merging with other black holes. The entire space is infinitely and hierarchically layered and evolves iteratively. The innermost three layers are the universe that we lives, the outside space called mother universe, and the inside star-like and supermassive black holes called child universes. The outermost layer has an infinite radius and zero limits for both the mass density and absolute temperature. All layers or universes are governed by the same physics, the Einstein general relativity with the Robertson-Walker metric of spacetime, and tend to expand outward physically. When one universe expands out, a new similar universe grows up from its inside black holes. The origin, structure, evolution, expansion, and cosmic microwave background radiation of black hole universe have been presented in the recent sequence of American Astronomical Society (AAS) meetings and published in peer-review journals. This study will show how this new model explains the acceleration of the universe and why dark energy is not required. We will also compare the black hole universe model with the big bang cosmology.
Thermonuclear model for high energy transients
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Woosley, S.E.
1982-01-01
The thermonuclear model for x- and γ-ray bursts is discussed. Different regimes of nuclear burning are reviewed, each appropriate to a given range of (steady state) accretion rate. Accretion rates in the range 10 -14 to 10 -8 Msub solar y -1 all appear capable of producing x-ray transients of various durations and intervals. Modifications introduced by radiatively driven mass loss, the thermal inertia of the envelope, different burning mechanisms, and two-dimensional considerations are discussed as are difficulties encountered when the thermonuclear model is confronted with observations of rapidly recurrent bursts (less than or equal to 10 min), and super-Eddington luminosities and temperatures. Results from a numerical simulation of a combined hydrogen-helium runaway initiated at pycnonuclear density are presented for the first time. The thermonuclear model for γ-ray bursts is also reviewed and updated, particularly with regard to the breakdown of the steady state hypothesis employed in previous work. Solely on the basis of nuclear instability, γ-ray bursts of various types appear possible for a very broad variety of accretion rates (approx. 10 -17 to approx. 10 -11 Msub solar y -1 ) although other considerations may restrict this range. The thermonuclear model appears capable of yielding a great diversity of high energy transient phenomena for various accretion rates, magnetic field configurations, and neutron star envelope histories
Recent developments in exponential random graph (p*) models for social networks
Robins, Garry; Snijders, Tom; Wang, Peng; Handcock, Mark; Pattison, Philippa
This article reviews new specifications for exponential random graph models proposed by Snijders et al. [Snijders, T.A.B., Pattison, P., Robins, G.L., Handcock, M., 2006. New specifications for exponential random graph models. Sociological Methodology] and demonstrates their improvement over
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kindström, Daniel; Ottosson, Mikael
2016-01-01
Highlights: • Many companies providing energy services are experiencing difficulties. • This research identifies key activities for the provision of energy services. • Findings are aggregated to the business-model level providing managerial insights. • This research identifies two different business model innovation paths. • Energy companies may need to renew parts of, or the entire, business model. - Abstract: Energy services play a key role in increasing energy efficiency in the industry. The key actors in these services are the local and regional energy companies that are increasingly implementing energy services as part of their market offering and developing service portfolios. Although expectations for energy services have been high, progress has so far been limited, and many companies offering energy services, including energy companies, are experiencing difficulties in implementing energy services and providing them to the market. Overall, this research examines what is needed for local and regional energy companies to successfully implement energy services (and consequently provide them to the market). In doing this, a two-stage process is used: first, we identify key activities for the successful implementation of energy services, and second, we aggregate the findings to the business model level. This research demonstrates that to succeed in implementing energy services, an energy company may need to renew parts or all of its existing product-based business model, formulate a new business model, or develop coexisting multiple business models. By discussing two distinct business model innovation processes, this research demonstrates that there can be different paths to success.
Exact solution of the O(n) model on a random lattice
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Eynard, B.; Kristjansen, C.
1995-01-01
We present an exact solution of the O(n) model on a random lattice. The coupling constant space of our model is parametrized in terms of a set of moment variables and the same type of universality with respect to the potential as observed for the one-matrix model is found. In addition we find...... a large degree of universality with respect to n; namely for n gE ] - 2,2[ the solution can be presented in a form which is valid not only for any potential, but also for any n (not necessarily rational). The cases n = ±2 are treated separately. We give explicit expressions for the genus-zero contribution...... to the one- and two-loop correlators as well as for the genus-one contribution to the one-loop correlator and the free energy. It is shown how one can obtain from these results any multi-loop correlator and the free energy to any genus and the structure of the higher-genera contributions is described...
Self-consistent Random Phase Approximation applied to a schematic model of the field theory
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bertrand, Thierry
1998-01-01
The self-consistent Random Phase Approximation (SCRPA) is a method allowing in the mean-field theory inclusion of the correlations in the ground and excited states. It has the advantage of not violating the Pauli principle in contrast to RPA, that is based on the quasi-bosonic approximation; in addition, numerous applications in different domains of physics, show a possible variational character. However, the latter should be formally demonstrated. The first model studied with SCRPA is the anharmonic oscillator in the region where one of its symmetries is spontaneously broken. The ground state energy is reproduced by SCRPA more accurately than RPA, with no violation of the Ritz variational principle, what is not the case for the latter approximation. The success of SCRPA is the the same in case of ground state energy for a model mixing bosons and fermions. At the transition point the SCRPA is correcting RPA drastically, but far from this region the correction becomes negligible, both methods being of similar precision. In the deformed region in the case of RPA a spurious mode occurred due to the microscopical character of the model.. The SCRPA may also reproduce this mode very accurately and actually it coincides with an excitation in the exact spectrum
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wendt, Fabian F [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Yu, Yi-Hsiang [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Nielsen, Kim [Ramboll, Copenhagen (Denmark); Ruehl, Kelley [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Bunnik, Tim [MARIN (Netherlands); Touzon, Imanol [Tecnalia (Spain); Nam, Bo Woo [KRISO (Korea, Rep. of); Kim, Jeong Seok [KRISO (Korea, Rep. of); Janson, Carl Erik [Chalmers University (Sweden); Jakobsen, Ken-Robert [EDRMedeso (Norway); Crowley, Sarah [WavEC (Portugal); Vega, Luis [Hawaii Natural Energy Institute (United States); Rajagopalan, Krishnakimar [Hawaii Natural Energy Institute (United States); Mathai, Thomas [Glosten (United States); Greaves, Deborah [Plymouth University (United Kingdom); Ransley, Edward [Plymouth University (United Kingdom); Lamont-Kane, Paul [Queen' s University Belfast (United Kingdom); Sheng, Wanan [University College Cork (Ireland); Costello, Ronan [Wave Venture (United Kingdom); Kennedy, Ben [Wave Venture (United Kingdom); Thomas, Sarah [Floating Power Plant (Denmark); Heras, Pilar [Floating Power Plant (Denmark); Bingham, Harry [Technical University of Denmark (Denmark); Kurniawan, Adi [Aalborg University (Denmark); Kramer, Morten Mejlhede [Aalborg University (Denmark); Ogden, David [INNOSEA (France); Girardin, Samuel [INNOSEA (France); Babarit, Aurelien [EC Nantes (France); Wuillaume, Pierre-Yves [EC Nantes (France); Steinke, Dean [Dynamic Systems Analysis (Canada); Roy, Andre [Dynamic Systems Analysis (Canada); Beatty, Scott [Cascadia Coast Research (Canada); Schofield, Paul [ANSYS (United States); Kim, Kyong-Hwan [KRISO (Korea, Rep. of); Jansson, Johan [KTH Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden); BCAM (Spain); Hoffman, Johan [KTH Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden)
2017-10-16
This is the first joint reference paper for the Ocean Energy Systems (OES) Task 10 Wave Energy Converter modeling verification and validation group. The group is established under the OES Energy Technology Network program under the International Energy Agency. OES was founded in 2001 and Task 10 was proposed by Bob Thresher (National Renewable Energy Laboratory) in 2015 and approved by the OES Executive Committee EXCO in 2016. The kickoff workshop took place in September 2016, wherein the initial baseline task was defined. Experience from similar offshore wind validation/verification projects (OC3-OC5 conducted within the International Energy Agency Wind Task 30) [1], [2] showed that a simple test case would help the initial cooperation to present results in a comparable way. A heaving sphere was chosen as the first test case. The team of project participants simulated different numerical experiments, such as heave decay tests and regular and irregular wave cases. The simulation results are presented and discussed in this paper.
Demonstrating sustainable energy: A review-based model of sustainable energy demonstration projects
Bossink, Bart
2017-01-01
This article develops a model of sustainable energy demonstration projects, based on a review of 229 scientific publications on demonstrations in renewable and sustainable energy. The model addresses the basic organizational characteristics (aim, cooperative form, and physical location) and learning
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kang, Li; Tang, Sanyi
2016-01-01
Highlights: • The discrete single species and multiple species models with random perturbation are proposed. • The complex dynamics and interesting bifurcation behavior have been investigated. • The reverse effects of random perturbation on discrete systems have been discussed and revealed. • The main results can be applied for pest control and resources management. - Abstract: The natural species are likely to present several interesting and complex phenomena under random perturbations, which have been confirmed by simple mathematical models. The important questions are: how the random perturbations influence the dynamics of the discrete population models with multiple steady states or multiple species interactions? and is there any different effects for single species and multiple species models with random perturbation? To address those interesting questions, we have proposed the discrete single species model with two stable equilibria and the host-parasitoid model with Holling type functional response functions to address how the random perturbation affects the dynamics. The main results indicate that the random perturbation does not change the number of blurred orbits of the single species model with two stable steady states compared with results for the classical Ricker model with same random perturbation, but it can strength the stability. However, extensive numerical investigations depict that the random perturbation does not influence the complexities of the host-parasitoid models compared with the results for the models without perturbation, while it does increase the period of periodic orbits doubly. All those confirm that the random perturbation has a reverse effect on the dynamics of the discrete single and multiple population models, which could be applied in reality including pest control and resources management.
Bayesian analysis for exponential random graph models using the adaptive exchange sampler
Jin, Ick Hoon; Liang, Faming; Yuan, Ying
2013-01-01
Exponential random graph models have been widely used in social network analysis. However, these models are extremely difficult to handle from a statistical viewpoint, because of the existence of intractable normalizing constants. In this paper, we
Random forest (RF) modeling has emerged as an important statistical learning method in ecology due to its exceptional predictive performance. However, for large and complex ecological datasets there is limited guidance on variable selection methods for RF modeling. Typically, e...
Square-lattice random Potts model: criticality and pitchfork bifurcation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Costa, U.M.S.; Tsallis, C.
1983-01-01
Within a real space renormalization group framework based on self-dual clusters, the criticality of the quenched bond-mixed q-state Potts ferromagnet on square lattice is discussed. On qualitative grounds it is exhibited that the crossover from the pure fixed point to the random one occurs, while q increases, through a pitchfork bifurcation; the relationship with Harris criterion is analyzed. On quantitative grounds high precision numerical values are presented for the critical temperatures corresponding to various concentrations of the coupling constants J 1 and J 2 , and various ratios J 1 /J 2 . The pure, random and crossover critical exponents are discussed as well. (Author) [pt
Genetic Analysis of Daily Maximum Milking Speed by a Random Walk Model in Dairy Cows
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Karacaören, Burak; Janss, Luc; Kadarmideen, Haja
Data were obtained from dairy cows stationed at research farm ETH Zurich for maximum milking speed. The main aims of this paper are a) to evaluate if the Wood curve is suitable to model mean lactation curve b) to predict longitudinal breeding values by random regression and random walk models of ...... filter applications: random walk model could give online prediction of breeding values. Hence without waiting for whole lactation records, genetic evaluation could be made when the daily or monthly data is available......Data were obtained from dairy cows stationed at research farm ETH Zurich for maximum milking speed. The main aims of this paper are a) to evaluate if the Wood curve is suitable to model mean lactation curve b) to predict longitudinal breeding values by random regression and random walk models...... of maximum milking speed. Wood curve did not provide a good fit to the data set. Quadratic random regressions gave better predictions compared with the random walk model. However random walk model does not need to be evaluated for different orders of regression coefficients. In addition with the Kalman...
Hybrid Hydro Renewable Energy Storage Model
Dey, Asit Kr
2018-01-01
This paper aims at presenting wind & tidal turbine pumped-storage solutions for improving the energy efficiency and economic sustainability of renewable energy systems. Indicated a viable option to solve problems of energy production, as well as in the integration of intermittent renewable energies, providing system flexibility due to energy load’s fluctuation, as long as the storage of energy from intermittent sources. Sea water storage energy is one of the best and most efficient options in terms of renewable resources as an integrated solution allowing the improvement of the energy system elasticity and the global system efficiency.
Wilhelm, Jan; Seewald, Patrick; Del Ben, Mauro; Hutter, Jürg
2016-12-13
We present an algorithm for computing the correlation energy in the random phase approximation (RPA) in a Gaussian basis requiring [Formula: see text] operations and [Formula: see text] memory. The method is based on the resolution of the identity (RI) with the overlap metric, a reformulation of RI-RPA in the Gaussian basis, imaginary time, and imaginary frequency integration techniques, and the use of sparse linear algebra. Additional memory reduction without extra computations can be achieved by an iterative scheme that overcomes the memory bottleneck of canonical RPA implementations. We report a massively parallel implementation that is the key for the application to large systems. Finally, cubic-scaling RPA is applied to a thousand water molecules using a correlation-consistent triple-ζ quality basis.
One-dimensional energy flow model for poroelastic material
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kim, Jung Soo; Kang, Yeon June
2009-01-01
This paper presents a one-dimensional energy flow model to investigate the energy behavior for poroelastic media coupled with acoustical media. The proposed energy flow model is expressed by an independent energy governing equation that is classified into each wave component propagating in poroelastic media. The energy governing equation is derived using the General Energetic Method (GEM). To facilitate a comparison with the classical solution based on the conventional displacement-base formulation, approximate solutions of energy density and intensity are obtained. Furthermore, the limitations and usability of the proposed energy flow model for poroelastic media are described.
Holloran-Schwartz, M Brigid; Gavard, Jeffrey A; Martin, Jared C; Blaskiewicz, Robert J; Yeung, Patrick P
2016-01-01
To compare the intraoperative direct costs of a single-use energy device with reusable energy devices during laparoscopic hysterectomy. A randomized controlled trial (Canadian Task Force Classification I). An academic hospital. Forty-six women who underwent laparoscopic hysterectomy from March 2013 to September 2013. Each patient served as her own control. One side of the uterine attachments was desiccated and transected with the single-use device (Ligasure 5-mm Blunt Tip LF1537 with the Force Triad generator). The other side was desiccated and transected with reusable bipolar forceps (RoBi 5 mm), and transected with monopolar scissors using the same Covidien Force Triad generator. The instrument approach used was randomized to the attending physician who was always on the patient's left side. Resident physicians always operated on the patient's right side and used the converse instruments of the attending physician. Start time was recorded at the utero-ovarian pedicle and end time was recorded after transection of the uterine artery on the same side. Costs included the single-use device; amortized costs of the generator, reusable instruments, and cords; cleaning and packaging of reusable instruments; and disposal of the single-use device. Operating room time was $94.14/min. We estimated that our single use-device cost $630.14 and had a total time savings of 6.7 min per case, or 3.35 min per side, which could justify the expense of the device. The single-use energy device had significant median time savings (-4.7 min per side, p energy device that both desiccates and cuts significantly reduced operating room time to justify its own cost, and it also reduced total intraoperative direct costs during laparoscopic hysterectomy in our institution. Operating room cost per minute varies between institutions and must be considered before generalizing our results. Copyright © 2016 AAGL. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Random Modeling of Daily Rainfall and Runoff Using a Seasonal Model and Wavelet Denoising
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chien-ming Chou
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Instead of Fourier smoothing, this study applied wavelet denoising to acquire the smooth seasonal mean and corresponding perturbation term from daily rainfall and runoff data in traditional seasonal models, which use seasonal means for hydrological time series forecasting. The denoised rainfall and runoff time series data were regarded as the smooth seasonal mean. The probability distribution of the percentage coefficients can be obtained from calibrated daily rainfall and runoff data. For validated daily rainfall and runoff data, percentage coefficients were randomly generated according to the probability distribution and the law of linear proportion. Multiplying the generated percentage coefficient by the smooth seasonal mean resulted in the corresponding perturbation term. Random modeling of daily rainfall and runoff can be obtained by adding the perturbation term to the smooth seasonal mean. To verify the accuracy of the proposed method, daily rainfall and runoff data for the Wu-Tu watershed were analyzed. The analytical results demonstrate that wavelet denoising enhances the precision of daily rainfall and runoff modeling of the seasonal model. In addition, the wavelet denoising technique proposed in this study can obtain the smooth seasonal mean of rainfall and runoff processes and is suitable for modeling actual daily rainfall and runoff processes.
Calibration of Discrete Random Walk (DRW) Model via G.I Taylor's Dispersion Theory
Javaherchi, Teymour; Aliseda, Alberto
2012-11-01
Prediction of particle dispersion in turbulent flows is still an important challenge with many applications to environmental, as well as industrial, fluid mechanics. Several models of dispersion have been developed to predict particle trajectories and their relative velocities, in combination with a RANS-based simulation of the background flow. The interaction of the particles with the velocity fluctuations at different turbulent scales represents a significant difficulty in generalizing the models to the wide range of flows where they are used. We focus our attention on the Discrete Random Walk (DRW) model applied to flow in a channel, particularly to the selection of eddies lifetimes as realizations of a Poisson distribution with a mean value proportional to κ / ɛ . We present a general method to determine the constant of this proportionality by matching the DRW model dispersion predictions for fluid element and particle dispersion to G.I Taylor's classical dispersion theory. This model parameter is critical to the magnitude of predicted dispersion. A case study of its influence on sedimentation of suspended particles in a tidal channel with an array of Marine Hydrokinetic (MHK) turbines highlights the dependency of results on this time scale parameter. Support from US DOE through the Northwest National Marine Renewable Energy Center, a UW-OSU partnership.
A decision model for energy resource selection in China
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wang Bing; Kocaoglu, Dundar F.; Daim, Tugrul U.; Yang Jiting
2010-01-01
This paper evaluates coal, petroleum, natural gas, nuclear energy and renewable energy resources as energy alternatives for China through use of a hierarchical decision model. The results indicate that although coal is still the major preferred energy alternative, it is followed closely by renewable energy. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the most critical criterion for energy selection is the current energy infrastructure. A hierarchical decision model is used, and expert judgments are quantified, to evaluate the alternatives. Criteria used for the evaluations are availability, current energy infrastructure, price, safety, environmental impacts and social impacts.
A queueing model with randomized depletion of inventory
Albrecher, H.-J.; Boxma, O.J.; Essifi, R.; Kuijstermans, A.C.M.
2015-01-01
In this paper we study an M/M/1 queue, where the server continues to work during idle periods and builds up inventory. This inventory is used for new arriving service requirements, but it is completely emptied at random epochs of a Poisson process, whose rate depends on the current level of the
Positive random fields for modeling material stiffness and compliance
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hasofer, Abraham Michael; Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager; Tarp-Johansen, Niels Jacob
1998-01-01
Positive random fields with known marginal properties and known correlation function are not numerous in the literature. The most prominent example is the log\\-normal field for which the complete distribution is known and for which the reciprocal field is also lognormal. It is of interest to supp...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ellis, Katherine; Lanckriet, Gert; Kerr, Jacqueline; Godbole, Suneeta; Wing, David; Marshall, Simon
2014-01-01
Wrist accelerometers are being used in population level surveillance of physical activity (PA) but more research is needed to evaluate their validity for correctly classifying types of PA behavior and predicting energy expenditure (EE). In this study we compare accelerometers worn on the wrist and hip, and the added value of heart rate (HR) data, for predicting PA type and EE using machine learning. Forty adults performed locomotion and household activities in a lab setting while wearing three ActiGraph GT3X+ accelerometers (left hip, right hip, non-dominant wrist) and a HR monitor (Polar RS400). Participants also wore a portable indirect calorimeter (COSMED K4b2), from which EE and metabolic equivalents (METs) were computed for each minute. We developed two predictive models: a random forest classifier to predict activity type and a random forest of regression trees to estimate METs. Predictions were evaluated using leave-one-user-out cross-validation. The hip accelerometer obtained an average accuracy of 92.3% in predicting four activity types (household, stairs, walking, running), while the wrist accelerometer obtained an average accuracy of 87.5%. Across all 8 activities combined (laundry, window washing, dusting, dishes, sweeping, stairs, walking, running), the hip and wrist accelerometers obtained average accuracies of 70.2% and 80.2% respectively. Predicting METs using the hip or wrist devices alone obtained root mean square errors (rMSE) of 1.09 and 1.00 METs per 6 min bout, respectively. Including HR data improved MET estimation, but did not significantly improve activity type classification. These results demonstrate the validity of random forest classification and regression forests for PA type and MET prediction using accelerometers. The wrist accelerometer proved more useful in predicting activities with significant arm movement, while the hip accelerometer was superior for predicting locomotion and estimating EE. (paper)
Ellis, Katherine; Kerr, Jacqueline; Godbole, Suneeta; Lanckriet, Gert; Wing, David; Marshall, Simon
2014-11-01
Wrist accelerometers are being used in population level surveillance of physical activity (PA) but more research is needed to evaluate their validity for correctly classifying types of PA behavior and predicting energy expenditure (EE). In this study we compare accelerometers worn on the wrist and hip, and the added value of heart rate (HR) data, for predicting PA type and EE using machine learning. Forty adults performed locomotion and household activities in a lab setting while wearing three ActiGraph GT3X+ accelerometers (left hip, right hip, non-dominant wrist) and a HR monitor (Polar RS400). Participants also wore a portable indirect calorimeter (COSMED K4b2), from which EE and metabolic equivalents (METs) were computed for each minute. We developed two predictive models: a random forest classifier to predict activity type and a random forest of regression trees to estimate METs. Predictions were evaluated using leave-one-user-out cross-validation. The hip accelerometer obtained an average accuracy of 92.3% in predicting four activity types (household, stairs, walking, running), while the wrist accelerometer obtained an average accuracy of 87.5%. Across all 8 activities combined (laundry, window washing, dusting, dishes, sweeping, stairs, walking, running), the hip and wrist accelerometers obtained average accuracies of 70.2% and 80.2% respectively. Predicting METs using the hip or wrist devices alone obtained root mean square errors (rMSE) of 1.09 and 1.00 METs per 6 min bout, respectively. Including HR data improved MET estimation, but did not significantly improve activity type classification. These results demonstrate the validity of random forest classification and regression forests for PA type and MET prediction using accelerometers. The wrist accelerometer proved more useful in predicting activities with significant arm movement, while the hip accelerometer was superior for predicting locomotion and estimating EE.
COMPUTER MODELLING OF ENERGY SAVING EFFECTS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marian JANCZAREK
2016-09-01
Full Text Available The paper presents the analysis of the dynamics of the heat transfer through the outer wall of the thermal technical spaces, taking into account the impact of the sinusoidal nature of the changes in atmospheric temperature. These temporal variations of the input on the outer surface of the chamber divider result at the output of the sinusoidal change on the inner wall of the room, but suitably suppressed and shifted in phase. Properly selected phase shift is clearly important for saving energy used for the operation associated with the maintenance of a specific regime of heat inside the thermal technical chamber support. Laboratory tests of the model and the actual object allowed for optimal design of the chamber due to the structure of the partition as well as due to the orientation of the geographical location of the chamber.
Developing an Energy Performance Modeling Startup Kit
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
none,
2012-10-01
In 2011, the NAHB Research Center began assessing the needs and motivations of residential remodelers regarding energy performance remodeling. This report outlines: the current remodeling industry and the role of energy efficiency; gaps and barriers to adding energy efficiency into remodeling; and support needs of professional remodelers to increase sales and projects involving improving home energy efficiency.
Studies in astronomical time series analysis: Modeling random processes in the time domain
Scargle, J. D.
1979-01-01
Random process models phased in the time domain are used to analyze astrophysical time series data produced by random processes. A moving average (MA) model represents the data as a sequence of pulses occurring randomly in time, with random amplitudes. An autoregressive (AR) model represents the correlations in the process in terms of a linear function of past values. The best AR model is determined from sampled data and transformed to an MA for interpretation. The randomness of the pulse amplitudes is maximized by a FORTRAN algorithm which is relatively stable numerically. Results of test cases are given to study the effects of adding noise and of different distributions for the pulse amplitudes. A preliminary analysis of the optical light curve of the quasar 3C 273 is given.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lü, Xiaoshu; Lu, Tao; Kibert, Charles J.; Viljanen, Martti
2015-01-01
Highlights: • This paper presents a new modeling method to forecast energy demands. • The model is based on physical–statistical approach to improving forecast accuracy. • A new method is proposed to address the heterogeneity challenge. • Comparison with measurements shows accurate forecasts of the model. • The first physical–statistical/heterogeneous building energy modeling approach is proposed and validated. - Abstract: Energy consumption forecasting is a critical and necessary input to planning and controlling energy usage in the building sector which accounts for 40% of the world’s energy use and the world’s greatest fraction of greenhouse gas emissions. However, due to the diversity and complexity of buildings as well as the random nature of weather conditions, energy consumption and loads are stochastic and difficult to predict. This paper presents a new methodology for energy demand forecasting that addresses the heterogeneity challenges in energy modeling of buildings. The new method is based on a physical–statistical approach designed to account for building heterogeneity to improve forecast accuracy. The physical model provides a theoretical input to characterize the underlying physical mechanism of energy flows. Then stochastic parameters are introduced into the physical model and the statistical time series model is formulated to reflect model uncertainties and individual heterogeneity in buildings. A new method of model generalization based on a convex hull technique is further derived to parameterize the individual-level model parameters for consistent model coefficients while maintaining satisfactory modeling accuracy for heterogeneous buildings. The proposed method and its validation are presented in detail for four different sports buildings with field measurements. The results show that the proposed methodology and model can provide a considerable improvement in forecasting accuracy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Peng, Degao; Yang, Yang; Zhang, Peng; Yang, Weitao
2014-01-01
In this article, we develop systematically second random phase approximations (RPA) and Tamm-Dancoff approximations (TDA) of particle-hole and particle-particle channels for calculating molecular excitation energies. The second particle-hole RPA/TDA can capture double excitations missed by the particle-hole RPA/TDA and time-dependent density-functional theory (TDDFT), while the second particle-particle RPA/TDA recovers non-highest-occupied-molecular-orbital excitations missed by the particle-particle RPA/TDA. With proper orbital restrictions, these restricted second RPAs and TDAs have a formal scaling of only O(N 4 ). The restricted versions of second RPAs and TDAs are tested with various small molecules to show some positive results. Data suggest that the restricted second particle-hole TDA (r2ph-TDA) has the best overall performance with a correlation coefficient similar to TDDFT, but with a larger negative bias. The negative bias of the r2ph-TDA may be induced by the unaccounted ground state correlation energy to be investigated further. Overall, the r2ph-TDA is recommended to study systems with both single and some low-lying double excitations with a moderate accuracy. Some expressions on excited state property evaluations, such as 〈S ^2 〉 are also developed and tested
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Peng, Degao; Yang, Yang; Zhang, Peng [Department of Chemistry, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708 (United States); Yang, Weitao, E-mail: weitao.yang@duke.edu [Department of Chemistry and Department of Physics, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708 (United States)
2014-12-07
In this article, we develop systematically second random phase approximations (RPA) and Tamm-Dancoff approximations (TDA) of particle-hole and particle-particle channels for calculating molecular excitation energies. The second particle-hole RPA/TDA can capture double excitations missed by the particle-hole RPA/TDA and time-dependent density-functional theory (TDDFT), while the second particle-particle RPA/TDA recovers non-highest-occupied-molecular-orbital excitations missed by the particle-particle RPA/TDA. With proper orbital restrictions, these restricted second RPAs and TDAs have a formal scaling of only O(N{sup 4}). The restricted versions of second RPAs and TDAs are tested with various small molecules to show some positive results. Data suggest that the restricted second particle-hole TDA (r2ph-TDA) has the best overall performance with a correlation coefficient similar to TDDFT, but with a larger negative bias. The negative bias of the r2ph-TDA may be induced by the unaccounted ground state correlation energy to be investigated further. Overall, the r2ph-TDA is recommended to study systems with both single and some low-lying double excitations with a moderate accuracy. Some expressions on excited state property evaluations, such as 〈S{sup ^2}〉 are also developed and tested.
Optimization Models and Methods Developed at the Energy Systems Institute
N.I. Voropai; V.I. Zorkaltsev
2013-01-01
The paper presents shortly some optimization models of energy system operation and expansion that have been created at the Energy Systems Institute of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Consideration is given to the optimization models of energy development in Russia, a software package intended for analysis of power system reliability, and model of flow distribution in hydraulic systems. A general idea of the optimization methods developed at the Energy Systems Institute...
Monte Carlo simulation of the three-state vector Potts model on a three-dimensional random lattice
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jianbo Zhang; Heping Ying
1991-09-01
We have performed a numerical simulation of the three-state vector Potts model on a three-dimensional random lattice. The averages of energy density, magnetization, specific heat and susceptibility of the system in the N 3 (N=8,10,12) lattices were calculated. The results show that a first order nature of the Z(3) symmetry breaking transition appears, as characterized by a thermal hysterisis in the energy density as well as an abrupt drop of magnetization being sharper and discontinuous with increasing of volume in the cross-over region. The results obtained on the random lattice were consistent with those obtained on the three-dimensional cubic lattice. (author). 12 refs, 4 figs
Analysis of a Residential Building Energy Consumption Demand Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Meng Liu
2011-03-01
Full Text Available In order to estimate the energy consumption demand of residential buildings, this paper first discusses the status and shortcomings of current domestic energy consumption models. Then it proposes and develops a residential building energy consumption demand model based on a back propagation (BP neural network model. After that, taking residential buildings in Chongqing (P.R. China as an example, 16 energy consumption indicators are introduced as characteristics of the residential buildings in Chongqing. The index system of the BP neutral network prediction model is established and the multi-factorial BP neural network prediction model of Chongqing residential building energy consumption is developed using the Cshap language, based on the SQL server 2005 platform. The results obtained by applying the model in Chongqing are in good agreement with actual ones. In addition, the model provides corresponding approximate data by taking into account the potential energy structure adjustments and relevant energy policy regulations.
Smith, B.
2015-12-01
In 2014, eight Department of Energy (DOE) national laboratories, four academic institutions, one company, and the National Centre for Atmospheric Research combined forces in a project called Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) with the goal to speed Earth system model development for climate and energy. Over the planned 10-year span, the project will conduct simulations and modeling on DOE's most powerful high-performance computing systems at Oak Ridge, Argonne, and Lawrence Berkeley Leadership Compute Facilities. A key component of the ACME project is the development of an interactive test bed for the advanced Earth system model. Its execution infrastructure will accelerate model development and testing cycles. The ACME Workflow Group is leading the efforts to automate labor-intensive tasks, provide intelligent support for complex tasks and reduce duplication of effort through collaboration support. As part of this new workflow environment, we have created a diagnostic, metric, and intercomparison Python framework, called UVCMetrics, to aid in the testing-to-production execution of the ACME model. The framework exploits similarities among different diagnostics to compactly support diagnosis of new models. It presently focuses on atmosphere and land but is designed to support ocean and sea ice model components as well. This framework is built on top of the existing open-source software framework known as the Ultrascale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools (UV-CDAT). Because of its flexible framework design, scientists and modelers now can generate thousands of possible diagnostic outputs. These diagnostics can compare model runs, compare model vs. observation, or simply verify a model is physically realistic. Additional diagnostics are easily integrated into the framework, and our users have already added several. Diagnostics can be generated, viewed, and manipulated from the UV-CDAT graphical user interface, Python command line scripts and programs
The benefits of noise and nonlinearity: Extracting energy from random vibrations
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gammaitoni, Luca, E-mail: luca.gammaitoni@pg.infn.it [NiPS Laboratory, Universita di Perugia, I-06100 Perugia (Italy); Neri, Igor; Vocca, Helios [NiPS Laboratory, Universita di Perugia, I-06100 Perugia (Italy)
2010-10-05
Nonlinear behavior is the ordinary feature of the vast majority of dynamical systems and noise is commonly present in any finite temperature physical and chemical system. In this article we briefly review the potentially beneficial outcome of the interplay of noise and nonlinearity by addressing the novel field of vibration energy harvesting. The role of nonlinearity in a piezoelectric harvester oscillator dynamics is modeled with nonlinear stochastic differential equation.
Bounds on the vibrational energy that can be harvested from random base motion
Langley, R. S.
2015-03-01
This paper is concerned with the development of upper bounds on the energy harvesting performance of a general multi-degree-of-freedom nonlinear electromechanical system that is subjected to random base motion and secondary applied periodic forces. The secondary forces are applied with the aim of enhancing the energy harvested from the base motion, and they may constitute direct excitation, or they may produce parametric terms in the equations of motion. It is shown that when the base motion has white noise acceleration then the power input by the base is always πS0 M / 2 where S0 is the single sided spectral density of the acceleration, and M is the mass of the system. This implies that although the secondary forces may enhance the energy harvested by causing a larger fraction of the power input from the base to be harvested rather than dissipated, there is an upper limit on the power that can be harvested. Attention is then turned to narrow band excitation, and it is found that in the absence of secondary forces a bound can be derived for a single degree of freedom system with linear damping and arbitrary nonlinear stiffness. The upper bound on the power input by the base is πM max [ S (ω) ] / 2, where S (ω) is the single sided base acceleration spectrum. The validity of this result for more general systems is found to be related to the properties of the first Wiener kernel, and this issue is explored analytically and by numerical simulation.
Das, Sai Krupa; Mason, Shawn T; Vail, Taylor A; Rogers, Gail V; Livingston, Kara A; Whelan, Jillian G; Chin, Meghan K; Blanchard, Caroline M; Turgiss, Jennifer L; Roberts, Susan B
2018-01-01
Programs focused on employee well-being have gained momentum in recent years, but few have been rigorously evaluated. This study evaluates the effectiveness of an intervention designed to enhance vitality and purpose in life by assessing changes in employee quality of life (QoL) and health-related behaviors. A worksite-based randomized controlled trial. Twelve eligible worksites (8 randomized to the intervention group [IG] and 4 to the wait-listed control group [CG]). Employees (n = 240) at the randomized worksites. A 2.5-day group-based behavioral intervention. Rand Medical Outcomes Survey (MOS) 36-item Short-Form (SF-36) vitality and QoL measures, Ryff Purpose in Life Scale, Center for Epidemiologic Studies questionnaire for depression, MOS sleep, body weight, physical activity, diet quality, and blood measures for glucose and lipids (which were used to calculate a cardiometabolic risk score) obtained at baseline and 6 months. General linear mixed models were used to compare least squares means or prevalence differences in outcomes between IG and CG participants. As compared to CG, IG had a significantly higher mean 6-month change on the SF-36 vitality scale ( P = .003) and scored in the highest categories for 5 of the remaining 7 SF-36 domains: general health ( P = .014), mental health ( P = .027), absence of role limitations due to physical problems ( P = .026), and social functioning ( P = .007). The IG also had greater improvements in purpose in life ( P employee QoL and well-being over 6 months.
International energy market dynamics: a modelling approach. Tome 1
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nachet, S.
1996-01-01
This work is an attempt to model international energy market and reproduce the behaviour of both energy demand and supply. Energy demand was represented using sector versus source approach. For developing countries, existing link between economic and energy sectors were analysed. Energy supply is exogenous for energy sources other than oil and natural gas. For hydrocarbons, exploration-production process was modelled and produced figures as production yield, exploration effort index, etc. The model built is econometric and is solved using a software that was constructed for this purpose. We explore the energy market future using three scenarios and obtain projections by 2010 for energy demand per source and oil natural gas supply per region. Economic variables are used to produce different indicators as energy intensity, energy per capita, etc. (author). 378 refs., 26 figs., 35 tabs., 11 appends
International energy market dynamics: a modelling approach. Tome 2
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nachet, S.
1996-01-01
This work is an attempt to model international energy market and reproduce the behaviour of both energy demand and supply. Energy demand was represented using sector versus source approach. For developing countries, existing link between economic and energy sectors were analysed. Energy supply is exogenous for energy sources other than oil and natural gas. For hydrocarbons, exploration-production process was modelled and produced figures as production yield, exploration effort index, ect. The model build is econometric and is solved using a software that was constructed for this purpose. We explore the energy market future using three scenarios and obtain projections by 2010 for energy demand per source and oil and natural gas supply per region. Economic variables are used to produce different indicators as energy intensity, energy per capita, etc. (author). 378 refs., 26 figs., 35 tabs., 11 appends
Modelling of biomass utilization for energy purpose
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Grzybek, Anna [ed.
2010-07-01
the overall farms structure, farms land distribution on several separate subfields for one farm, villages' overpopulation and very high employment in agriculture (about 27% of all employees in national economy works in agriculture). Farmers have low education level. In towns 34% of population has secondary education and in rural areas - only 15-16%. Less than 2% inhabitants of rural areas have higher education. The structure of land use is as follows: arable land 11.5%, meadows and pastures 25.4%, forests 30.1%. Poland requires implementation of technical and technological progress for intensification of agricultural production. The reason of competition for agricultural land is maintenance of the current consumption level and allocation of part of agricultural production for energy purposes. Agricultural land is going to be key factor for biofuels production. In this publication research results for the Project PL0073 'Modelling of energetical biomass utilization for energy purposes' have been presented. The Project was financed from the Norwegian Financial Mechanism and European Economic Area Financial Mechanism. The publication is aimed at moving closer and explaining to the reader problems connected with cultivations of energy plants and dispelling myths concerning these problems. Exchange of fossil fuels by biomass for heat and electric energy production could be significant input in carbon dioxide emission reduction. Moreover, biomass crop and biomass utilization for energetical purposes play important role in agricultural production diversification in rural areas transformation. Agricultural production widening enables new jobs creation. Sustainable development is going to be fundamental rule for Polish agriculture evolution in long term perspective. Energetical biomass utilization perfectly integrates in the evolution frameworks, especially on local level. There are two facts. The fist one is that increase of interest in energy crops in Poland has been
Modelling of biomass utilization for energy purpose
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Grzybek, Anna (ed.)
2010-07-01
the overall farms structure, farms land distribution on several separate subfields for one farm, villages' overpopulation and very high employment in agriculture (about 27% of all employees in national economy works in agriculture). Farmers have low education level. In towns 34% of population has secondary education and in rural areas - only 15-16%. Less than 2% inhabitants of rural areas have higher education. The structure of land use is as follows: arable land 11.5%, meadows and pastures 25.4%, forests 30.1%. Poland requires implementation of technical and technological progress for intensification of agricultural production. The reason of competition for agricultural land is maintenance of the current consumption level and allocation of part of agricultural production for energy purposes. Agricultural land is going to be key factor for biofuels production. In this publication research results for the Project PL0073 'Modelling of energetical biomass utilization for energy purposes' have been presented. The Project was financed from the Norwegian Financial Mechanism and European Economic Area Financial Mechanism. The publication is aimed at moving closer and explaining to the reader problems connected with cultivations of energy plants and dispelling myths concerning these problems. Exchange of fossil fuels by biomass for heat and electric energy production could be significant input in carbon dioxide emission reduction. Moreover, biomass crop and biomass utilization for energetical purposes play important role in agricultural production diversification in rural areas transformation. Agricultural production widening enables new jobs creation. Sustainable development is going to be fundamental rule for Polish agriculture evolution in long term perspective. Energetical biomass utilization perfectly integrates in the evolution frameworks, especially on local level. There are two facts. The fist one is that increase of interest in energy crops in Poland
Economic analysis model for total energy and economic systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shoji, Katsuhiko; Yasukawa, Shigeru; Sato, Osamu
1980-09-01
This report describes framing an economic analysis model developed as a tool of total energy systems. To prospect and analyze future energy systems, it is important to analyze the relation between energy system and economic structure. We prepared an economic analysis model which was suited for this purpose. Our model marks that we can analyze in more detail energy related matters than other economic ones, and can forecast long-term economic progress rather than short-term economic fluctuation. From view point of economics, our model is longterm multi-sectoral economic analysis model of open Leontief type. Our model gave us appropriate results for fitting test and forecasting estimation. (author)
Developing a Model of the Irish Energy-System
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Connolly, David; Lund, Henrik; Mathiesen, Brian Vad
2009-01-01
to create the model as it accounts for all sectors that need to be considered for integrating large penetrations of renewable energy: the electricity, heat and transport sectors. Before various alternative energy-systems could be investigated for Ireland, a reference model of the existing system needed...... is a vital step due to the scale of the change required for large-scale renewable penetrations. In this paper, a model of the Irish energy system is created to identify how Ireland can transform from a fossil-fuel to a renewable energy-system. The energy-systems-analysis tool, EnergyPLAN, was chosen...... to be created. This paper focuses on the construction of this reference model, in terms of the data gathered, the assumptions made and the accuracy achieved. In future work, this model will be used to investigate alternative energy-systems for Ireland, with the aim to determine the most effective energy system...
Modelling energy consumption in a manufacturing plant using productivity KPIs
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gallachoir, Brian O.; Cahill, Caiman (Sustainable Energy Research Group, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Univ. College Cork (Ireland))
2009-07-01
Energy efficiency initiatives in industrial plants are often focused on getting energy-consuming utilities and devices to operate more efficiently, or on conserving energy. While such device-oriented energy efficiency measures can achieve considerable savings, greater energy efficiency improvement may be achieved by improving the overall productivity and quality of manufacturing processes. The paper highlights the observed relationship between productivity and energy efficiency using aggregated data on unit consumption and production index data for Irish industry. Past studies have developed simple top-down models of final energy consumption in manufacturing plants using energy consumption and production output figures, but these models do not help identify opportunities for energy savings that could achieved through increased productivity. This paper proposes an improved and innovative method of modelling plant final energy demand that introduces standard productivity Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) into the model. The model demonstrates the relationship between energy consumption and productivity, and uses standard productivity metrics to identify the areas of manufacturing activity that offer the most potential for improved energy efficiency. The model provides a means of comparing the effect of device-oriented energy efficiency measures with the potential for improved energy efficiency through increased productivity.
Programming models for energy-aware systems
Zhu, Haitao
Energy efficiency is an important goal of modern computing, with direct impact on system operational cost, reliability, usability and environmental sustainability. This dissertation describes the design and implementation of two innovative programming languages for constructing energy-aware systems. First, it introduces ET, a strongly typed programming language to promote and facilitate energy-aware programming, with a novel type system design called Energy Types. Energy Types is built upon a key insight into today's energy-efficient systems and applications: despite the popular perception that energy and power can only be described in joules and watts, real-world energy management is often based on discrete phases and modes, which in turn can be reasoned about by type systems very effectively. A phase characterizes a distinct pattern of program workload, and a mode represents an energy state the program is expected to execute in. Energy Types is designed to reason about energy phases and energy modes, bringing programmers into the optimization of energy management. Second, the dissertation develops Eco, an energy-aware programming language centering around sustainability. A sustainable program built from Eco is able to adaptively adjusts its own behaviors to stay on a given energy budget, avoiding both deficit that would lead to battery drain or CPU overheating, and surplus that could have been used to improve the quality of the program output. Sustainability is viewed as a form of supply and demand matching, and a sustainable program consistently maintains the equilibrium between supply and demand. ET is implemented as a prototyped compiler for smartphone programming on Android, and Eco is implemented as a minimal extension to Java. Programming practices and benchmarking experiments in these two new languages showed that ET can lead to significant energy savings for Android Apps and Eco can efficiently promote battery awareness and temperature awareness in real
Numerical Simulation of Entropy Growth for a Nonlinear Evolutionary Model of Random Markets
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mahdi Keshtkar
2016-01-01
Full Text Available In this communication, the generalized continuous economic model for random markets is revisited. In this model for random markets, agents trade by pairs and exchange their money in a random and conservative way. They display the exponential wealth distribution as asymptotic equilibrium, independently of the effectiveness of the transactions and of the limitation of the total wealth. In the current work, entropy of mentioned model is defined and then some theorems on entropy growth of this evolutionary problem are given. Furthermore, the entropy increasing by simulation on some numerical examples is verified.
Energy demand in Portuguese manufacturing: a two-stage model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Borges, A.M.; Pereira, A.M.
1992-01-01
We use a two-stage model of factor demand to estimate the parameters determining energy demand in Portuguese manufacturing. In the first stage, a capital-labor-energy-materials framework is used to analyze the substitutability between energy as a whole and other factors of production. In the second stage, total energy demand is decomposed into oil, coal and electricity demands. The two stages are fully integrated since the energy composite used in the first stage and its price are obtained from the second stage energy sub-model. The estimates obtained indicate that energy demand in manufacturing responds significantly to price changes. In addition, estimation results suggest that there are important substitution possibilities among energy forms and between energy and other factors of production. The role of price changes in energy-demand forecasting, as well as in energy policy in general, is clearly established. (author)
Zhang, Du; Su, Neil Qiang; Yang, Weitao
2017-07-20
The GW self-energy, especially G 0 W 0 based on the particle-hole random phase approximation (phRPA), is widely used to study quasiparticle (QP) energies. Motivated by the desirable features of the particle-particle (pp) RPA compared to the conventional phRPA, we explore the pp counterpart of GW, that is, the T-matrix self-energy, formulated with the eigenvectors and eigenvalues of the ppRPA matrix. We demonstrate the accuracy of the T-matrix method for molecular QP energies, highlighting the importance of the pp channel for calculating QP spectra.
Wang, Wei; Griswold, Michael E
2016-11-30
The random effect Tobit model is a regression model that accommodates both left- and/or right-censoring and within-cluster dependence of the outcome variable. Regression coefficients of random effect Tobit models have conditional interpretations on a constructed latent dependent variable and do not provide inference of overall exposure effects on the original outcome scale. Marginalized random effects model (MREM) permits likelihood-based estimation of marginal mean parameters for the clustered data. For random effect Tobit models, we extend the MREM to marginalize over both the random effects and the normal space and boundary components of the censored response to estimate overall exposure effects at population level. We also extend the 'Average Predicted Value' method to estimate the model-predicted marginal means for each person under different exposure status in a designated reference group by integrating over the random effects and then use the calculated difference to assess the overall exposure effect. The maximum likelihood estimation is proposed utilizing a quasi-Newton optimization algorithm with Gauss-Hermite quadrature to approximate the integration of the random effects. We use these methods to carefully analyze two real datasets. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
van Kasteren, T.L.M.; Noulas, A.K.; Kröse, B.J.A.; Smit, G.J.M.; Epema, D.H.J.; Lew, M.S.
2008-01-01
Conditional Random Fields are a discriminative probabilistic model which recently gained popularity in applications that require modeling nonindependent observation sequences. In this work, we present the basic advantages of this model over generative models and argue about its suitability in the
Large Deviations for the Annealed Ising Model on Inhomogeneous Random Graphs: Spins and Degrees
Dommers, Sander; Giardinà, Cristian; Giberti, Claudio; Hofstad, Remco van der
2018-04-01
We prove a large deviations principle for the total spin and the number of edges under the annealed Ising measure on generalized random graphs. We also give detailed results on how the annealing over the Ising model changes the degrees of the vertices in the graph and show how it gives rise to interesting correlated random graphs.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Strathe, Anders B; Mark, Thomas; Nielsen, Bjarne
2014-01-01
Random regression models were used to estimate covariance functions between cumulated feed intake (CFI) and body weight (BW) in 8424 Danish Duroc pigs. Random regressions on second order Legendre polynomials of age were used to describe genetic and permanent environmental curves in BW and CFI...
A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ross, M. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)]|[Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics]|[Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.; Hwang, R. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)
1992-02-01
The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model`s parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.
Quantification model for energy consumption in edification
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mercader, Mª P.
2012-12-01
Full Text Available The research conducted in this paper focuses on the generation of a model for the quantification of energy consumption in building. This is to be done through one of the most relevant environmental impact indicators associated with weight per m^{2} of construction, as well as the energy consumption resulting from the manufacturing process of materials used in building construction.
The practical application of the proposed model on different buildings typologies in Seville, will provide information regarding the building materials, the subsystems and the most relevant construction elements. Hence, we will be able to observe the impact the built surface has on the environment.
The results obtained aim to reference the scientific community, providing quantitative data comparable to other types of buildings and geographical areas. Furthermore, it may also allow the analysis and the characterization of feasible solutions to reduce the environmental impact generated by the different materials, subsystems and construction elements commonly used in the different building types defined in this study.
La investigación realizada en el presente trabajo plantea la generación de un modelo de cuantificación del consumo energético en edificación, a través de uno de los indicadores de impacto ambiental más relevantes asociados al peso por m^{2} de construcción, el consumo energético derivado del proceso de fabricación de los materiales de construcción empleados en edificación.
La aplicación práctica del modelo propuesto sobre diferentes tipologías edificatorias en Sevilla aportará información respecto a los materiales de construcción, subsistemas y elementos constructivos más impactantes, permitiendo visualizar la influencia que presenta la superficie construida en cuanto al impacto ambiental generado.
Los resultados obtenidos pretenden servir de referencia a la comunidad científica, aportando datos num
Methodology for Modeling Building Energy Performance across the Commercial Sector
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Griffith, B.; Long, N.; Torcellini, P.; Judkoff, R.; Crawley, D.; Ryan, J.
2008-03-01
This report uses EnergyPlus simulations of each building in the 2003 Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) to document and demonstrate bottom-up methods of modeling the entire U.S. commercial buildings sector (EIA 2006). The ability to use a whole-building simulation tool to model the entire sector is of interest because the energy models enable us to answer subsequent 'what-if' questions that involve technologies and practices related to energy. This report documents how the whole-building models were generated from the building characteristics in 2003 CBECS and compares the simulation results to the survey data for energy use.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Barangi, Mahmood; Erementchouk, Mikhail; Mazumder, Pinaki
2016-01-01
Strain-mediated magnetization switching in a magnetic tunneling junction (MTJ) by exploiting a combination of piezoelectricity and magnetostriction has been proposed as an energy efficient alternative to spin transfer torque (STT) and field induced magnetization switching methods in MTJ-based magnetic random access memories (MRAM). Theoretical studies have shown the inherent advantages of strain-assisted switching, and the dynamic response of the magnetization has been modeled using the Landau-Lifshitz-Gilbert (LLG) equation. However, an attempt to use LLG for simulating dynamics of individual elements in large-scale simulations of multi-megabyte straintronics MRAM leads to extremely time-consuming calculations. Hence, a compact analytical solution, predicting the flipping delay of the magnetization vector in the nanomagnet under stress, combined with a liberal approximation of the LLG dynamics in the straintronics MTJ, can lead to a simplified model of the device suited for fast large-scale simulations of multi-megabyte straintronics MRAMs. In this work, a tensor-based approach is developed to study the dynamic behavior of the stressed nanomagnet. First, using the developed method, the effect of stress on the switching behavior of the magnetization is investigated to realize the margins between the underdamped and overdamped regimes. The latter helps the designer realize the oscillatory behavior of the magnetization when settling along the minor axis, and the dependency of oscillations on the stress level and the damping factor. Next, a theoretical model to predict the flipping delay of the magnetization vector is developed and tested against LLG-based numerical simulations to confirm the accuracy of findings. Lastly, the obtained delay is incorporated into the approximate solutions of the LLG dynamics, in order to create a compact model to liberally and quickly simulate the magnetization dynamics of the MTJ under stress. Using the developed delay equation, the
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Barangi, Mahmood, E-mail: barangi@umich.edu; Erementchouk, Mikhail; Mazumder, Pinaki [Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109-2121 (United States)
2016-08-21
Strain-mediated magnetization switching in a magnetic tunneling junction (MTJ) by exploiting a combination of piezoelectricity and magnetostriction has been proposed as an energy efficient alternative to spin transfer torque (STT) and field induced magnetization switching methods in MTJ-based magnetic random access memories (MRAM). Theoretical studies have shown the inherent advantages of strain-assisted switching, and the dynamic response of the magnetization has been modeled using the Landau-Lifshitz-Gilbert (LLG) equation. However, an attempt to use LLG for simulating dynamics of individual elements in large-scale simulations of multi-megabyte straintronics MRAM leads to extremely time-consuming calculations. Hence, a compact analytical solution, predicting the flipping delay of the magnetization vector in the nanomagnet under stress, combined with a liberal approximation of the LLG dynamics in the straintronics MTJ, can lead to a simplified model of the device suited for fast large-scale simulations of multi-megabyte straintronics MRAMs. In this work, a tensor-based approach is developed to study the dynamic behavior of the stressed nanomagnet. First, using the developed method, the effect of stress on the switching behavior of the magnetization is investigated to realize the margins between the underdamped and overdamped regimes. The latter helps the designer realize the oscillatory behavior of the magnetization when settling along the minor axis, and the dependency of oscillations on the stress level and the damping factor. Next, a theoretical model to predict the flipping delay of the magnetization vector is developed and tested against LLG-based numerical simulations to confirm the accuracy of findings. Lastly, the obtained delay is incorporated into the approximate solutions of the LLG dynamics, in order to create a compact model to liberally and quickly simulate the magnetization dynamics of the MTJ under stress. Using the developed delay equation, the
Comparison of models of high energy nuclear collisions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gyulassy, M.
1978-01-01
The treatment of high energy nuclear reaction models covers goals of such collisions, the choice of theoretical framework, the zoo of models (p inclusive), light composites, models versus experiment, conclusions drawn, needed experiments, and pion production. 30 diagrams
New model. Local financing for local energy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Detroy, Florent
2015-01-01
While evoking the case of the VMH Energies company in the Poitou-Charentes region, and indicating the difference between France and Germany in terms of wind and photovoltaic energy production potential, of number of existing local companies, and of citizen-based funding, this article shows that renewable energies could put the energy production financing in France into question again, with a more important participation of local communities and of their inhabitants. The author describes how the law on energy transition makes this possible, notably with the strengthening of citizen participation. The author evokes some French local experiments and the case of Germany where this participation is already very much developed
The Random Walk Model Based on Bipartite Network
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhang Man-Dun
2016-01-01
Full Text Available With the continuing development of the electronic commerce and growth of network information, there is a growing possibility for citizens to be confused by the information. Though the traditional technology of information retrieval have the ability to relieve the overload of information in some extent, it can not offer a targeted personality service based on user’s interests and activities. In this context, the recommendation algorithm arose. In this paper, on the basis of conventional recommendation, we studied the scheme of random walk based on bipartite network and the application of it. We put forward a similarity measurement based on implicit feedback. In this method, a uneven character vector is imported(the weight of item in the system. We put forward a improved random walk pattern which make use of partial or incomplete neighbor information to create recommendation information. In the end, there is an experiment in the real data set, the recommendation accuracy and practicality are improved. We promise the reality of the result of the experiment
Numerical modelling of random walk one-dimensional diffusion
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Vamos, C.; Suciu, N.; Peculea, M.
1996-01-01
The evolution of a particle which moves on a discrete one-dimensional lattice, according to a random walk low, approximates better the diffusion process smaller the steps of the spatial lattice and time are. For a sufficiently large assembly of particles one can assume that their relative frequency at lattice knots approximates the distribution function of the diffusion process. This assumption has been tested by simulating on computer two analytical solutions of the diffusion equation: the Brownian motion and the steady state linear distribution. To evaluate quantitatively the similarity between the numerical and analytical solutions we have used a norm given by the absolute value of the difference of the two solutions. Also, a diffusion coefficient at any lattice knots and moment of time has been calculated, by using the numerical solution both from the diffusion equation and the particle flux given by Fick's low. The difference between diffusion coefficient of analytical solution and the spatial lattice mean coefficient of numerical solution constitutes another quantitative indication of the similarity of the two solutions. The results obtained show that the approximation depends first on the number of particles at each knot of the spatial lattice. In conclusion, the random walk is a microscopic process of the molecular dynamics type which permits simulations precision of the diffusion processes with given precision. The numerical method presented in this work may be useful both in the analysis of real experiments and for theoretical studies
A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ross, M. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States) Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.); Hwang, R. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States))
1992-02-01
The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model's parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.
Applicability of the condensed-random-walk Monte Carlo method at low energies in high-Z materials
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Berger, Martin J.
1998-01-01
The predictions of several Monte Carlo codes were compared with each other and with experimental results pertaining to the penetration of through gold foils of electrons incident with energies from 128 to 8 keV. The main purpose was to demonstrate that reflection and transmission coefficients, for number and energy, can be estimated reliably with a simple Monte Carlo code based on the condensed-random-walk and continuous-slowing-down approximations
An Energy Oriented Model and Simulator for Wireless Sensor etworks
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Nafiisah
Wireless Sensor Network, Energy Modeling, Simulation, Energy. Efficiency ..... xMBCR: This scheme is based on the MBCR strategy, but improves the battery ... Moreover WSNs require large scale deployment (smart dusts) in remote and.
modelling of hydropower reservoir variables for energy generation
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Osondu
the River Niger (Kainji and Jebba dams) in Nigeria for energy generation using multilayer ... coefficient showed that the networks are reliable for modeling energy generation as a function of ... water, like wind and sun, is a renewable resource.
Quantifying and Disaggregating Consumer Purchasing Behavior for Energy Systems Modeling
Consumer behaviors such as energy conservation, adoption of more efficient technologies, and fuel switching represent significant potential for greenhouse gas mitigation. Current efforts to model future energy outcomes have tended to use simplified economic assumptions ...
modelling of hydropower reservoir variables for energy generation
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Osondu
the River Niger (Kainji and Jebba dams) in Nigeria for energy generation using multilayer ... coefficient showed that the networks are reliable for modeling energy generation as a function of ... through turbines and electric generator system.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kim, Jiwoong
2015-01-01
In theoretical calculations, expressing the random distribution of atoms in a certain crystal structure is still challenging. The special quasi-random structure (SQS) model is effective for depicting such random distributions. The SQS model has not been applied to semi-empirical thermodynamic calculations; however, Debye–Grüneisen theory (DGT), a semi-empirical method, was used here for that purpose. The model reliability was obtained by comparing supercell models of various sizes. The results for chemical bonds, pair correlation, and elastic properties demonstrated the reliability of the SQS models. Thermodynamic calculations using density functional perturbation theory (DFPT) and DGT assessed the applicability of the SQS models. DGT and DFPT led to similar variations of the mixing and formation energies. This study provides guidelines for theoretical assessments to obtain the reliable SQS models and to calculate the thermodynamic properties of numerous materials with a random atomic distribution. - Highlights: • Various material properties are used to examine reliability of special quasi-random structures. • SQS models are applied to thermodynamic calculations by semi-empirical methods. • Basic calculation guidelines for materials with random atomic distribution are given.
Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED-2). User's manual
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
2007-01-01
The IAEA has been supporting its Member States in the area of energy planning for sustainable development. Development and dissemination of appropriate methodologies and their computer codes are important parts of this support. This manual has been produced to facilitate the use of the MAED model: Model for Analysis of Energy Demand. The methodology of the MAED model was originally developed by. B. Chateau and B. Lapillonne of the Institute Economique et Juridique de l'Energie (IEJE) of the University of Grenoble, France, and was presented as the MEDEE model. Since then the MEDEE model has been developed and adopted to be appropriate for modelling of various energy demand system. The IAEA adopted MEDEE-2 model and incorporated important modifications to make it more suitable for application in the developing countries, and it was named as the MAED model. The first version of the MAED model was designed for the DOS based system, which was later on converted for the Windows system. This manual presents the latest version of the MAED model. The most prominent feature of this version is its flexibility for representing structure of energy consumption. The model now allows country-specific representations of energy consumption patterns using the MAED methodology. The user can now disaggregate energy consumption according to the needs and/or data availability in her/his country. As such, MAED has now become a powerful tool for modelling widely diverse energy consumption patterns. This manual presents the model in details and provides guidelines for its application
Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED-2)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
2007-01-01
The IAEA has been supporting its Member States in the area of energy planning for sustainable development. Development and dissemination of appropriate methodologies and their computer codes are important parts of this support. This manual has been produced to facilitate the use of the MAED model: Model for Analysis of Energy Demand. The methodology of the MAED model was originally developed by. B. Chateau and B. Lapillonne of the Institute Economique et Juridique de l'Energie (IEJE) of the University of Grenoble, France, and was presented as the MEDEE model. Since then the MEDEE model has been developed and adopted to be appropriate for modelling of various energy demand system. The IAEA adopted MEDEE-2 model and incorporated important modifications to make it more suitable for application in the developing countries, and it was named as the MAED model. The first version of the MAED model was designed for the DOS based system, which was later on converted for the Windows system. This manual presents the latest version of the MAED model. The most prominent feature of this version is its flexibility for representing structure of energy consumption. The model now allows country-specific representations of energy consumption patterns using the MAED methodology. The user can now disaggregate energy consumption according to the needs and/or data availability in her/his country. As such, MAED has now become a powerful tool for modelling widely diverse energy consumption patterns. This manual presents the model in details and provides guidelines for its application
Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED-2). User's manual
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
2006-01-01
The IAEA has been supporting its Member States in the area of energy planning for sustainable development. Development and dissemination of appropriate methodologies and their computer codes are important parts of this support. This manual has been produced to facilitate the use of the MAED model: Model for Analysis of Energy Demand. The methodology of the MAED model was originally developed by. B. Chateau and B. Lapillonne of the Institute Economique et Juridique de l'Energie (IEJE) of the University of Grenoble, France, and was presented as the MEDEE model. Since then the MEDEE model has been developed and adopted to be appropriate for modelling of various energy demand system. The IAEA adopted MEDEE-2 model and incorporated important modifications to make it more suitable for application in the developing countries, and it was named as the MAED model. The first version of the MAED model was designed for the DOS based system, which was later on converted for the Windows system. This manual presents the latest version of the MAED model. The most prominent feature of this version is its flexibility for representing structure of energy consumption. The model now allows country-specific representations of energy consumption patterns using the MAED methodology. The user can now disaggregate energy consumption according to the needs and/or data availability in her/his country. As such, MAED has now become a powerful tool for modelling widely diverse energy consumption patterns. This manual presents the model in details and provides guidelines for its application
Structure model of energy efficiency indicators and applications
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wu, Li-Ming; Chen, Bai-Sheng; Bor, Yun-Chang; Wu, Yin-Chin
2007-01-01
For the purposes of energy conservation and environmental protection, the government of Taiwan has instigated long-term policies to continuously encourage and assist industry in improving the efficiency of energy utilization. While multiple actions have led to practical energy saving to a limited extent, no strong evidence of improvement in energy efficiency was observed from the energy efficiency indicators (EEI) system, according to the annual national energy statistics and survey. A structural analysis of EEI is needed in order to understand the role that energy efficiency plays in the EEI system. This work uses the Taylor series expansion to develop a structure model for EEI at the level of the process sector of industry. The model is developed on the premise that the design parameters of the process are used in comparison with the operational parameters for energy differences. The utilization index of production capability and the variation index of energy utilization are formulated in the model to describe the differences between EEIs. Both qualitative and quantitative methods for the analysis of energy efficiency and energy savings are derived from the model. Through structural analysis, the model showed that, while the performance of EEI is proportional to the process utilization index of production capability, it is possible that energy may develop in a direction opposite to that of EEI. This helps to explain, at least in part, the inconsistency between EEI and energy savings. An energy-intensive steel plant in Taiwan was selected to show the application of the model. The energy utilization efficiency of the plant was evaluated and the amount of energy that had been saved or over-used in the production process was estimated. Some insights gained from the model outcomes are helpful to further enhance energy efficiency in the plant
A Romanian energy system model and a nuclear reduction strategy
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Gota, Dan-Ioan; Lund, Henrik; Miclea, Liviu
2011-01-01
This paper presents a model of the Romanian energy system with the purpose of providing a tool for the analysis of future sustainable energy strategies. The model represents the total national energy system and is detailed to the level of hourly demand and production in order to be able to analyse...... the consequences of adding fluctuating renewable energy sources to the system. The model has been implemented into the EnergyPLAN tool and has been validated in order to determine if it can be used as a reference model for other simulations. In EnergyPLAN, two different future strategy scenarios for the Romanian...... energy system are compared to the actual data of Romania of year 2008. First, a comparison is made between the 2008 model and the 2013 strategy scenario corresponding to the grid of the Romanian transmission system operator (TSO) Transelectrica. Then, a comparison is made to a second strategy scenario...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo
This study explores the plausibility of regret minimization as behavioral paradigm underlying the choice of crash avoidance maneuvers. Alternatively to previous studies that considered utility maximization, this study applies the random regret minimization (RRM) model while assuming that drivers ...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo
2012-01-01
This study explores the plausibility of regret minimization as behavioral paradigm underlying the choice of crash avoidance maneuvers. Alternatively to previous studies that considered utility maximization, this study applies the random regret minimization (RRM) model while assuming that drivers ...
PROBABILISTIC MODEL OF BEAM–PLASMA INTERACTION IN RANDOMLY INHOMOGENEOUS PLASMA
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Voshchepynets, A.; Krasnoselskikh, V.; Artemyev, A.; Volokitin, A.
2015-01-01
We propose a new model that describes beam–plasma interaction in the presence of random density fluctuations with a known probability distribution. We use the property that, for the given frequency, the probability distribution of the density fluctuations uniquely determines the probability distribution of the phase velocity of waves. We present the system as discrete and consisting of small, equal spatial intervals with a linear density profile. This approach allows one to estimate variations in wave energy density and particle velocity, depending on the density gradient on any small spatial interval. Because the characteristic time for the evolution of the electron distribution function and the wave energy is much longer than the time required for a single wave–particle resonant interaction over a small interval, we determine the description for the relaxation process in terms of averaged quantities. We derive a system of equations, similar to the quasi-linear approximation, with the conventional velocity diffusion coefficient D and the wave growth rate γ replaced by the average in phase space, by making use of the probability distribution for phase velocities and by assuming that the interaction in each interval is independent of previous interactions. Functions D and γ are completely determined by the distribution function for the amplitudes of the fluctuations. For the Gaussian distribution of the density fluctuations, we show that the relaxation process is determined by the ratio of beam velocity to plasma thermal velocity, the dispersion of the fluctuations, and the width of the beam in the velocity space
Electromechanical Modeling of Piezoelectric Energy Harvesters
Erturk, Alper
2009-01-01
Vibration-based energy harvesting has been investigated by several researchers over the last decade. The ultimate goal in this research field is to power small electronic components (such as wireless sensors) by using the vibration energy available in their environment. Among the basic transduction mechanisms that can be used for vibration-to-electricity conversion, piezoelectric transduction has received the most attention in the literature. Piezoelectric materials are preferred in energy ha...
COP21. To change the energy model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dupin, Ludovic
2015-01-01
In this brief article, the author regrets that the final COP21 agreement mentioned only once the energy issue whereas energy is responsible of 66 per cent of CO 2 emissions. Commitments regarding financing are evoked as well as statements made by the US President and his Secretary of State. He briefly outlines evolutions noticed in Germany after the implementation of the new energy policy (Energiewende) and its possible influences in other countries, notably in France. The still important role of coal in some countries like China, India, and Africa is outlined. Saudi Arabia succeeded in avoiding any mention of fossil energies in the final agreement
Modeling and Simulation of Smart Energy Systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Connolly, David; Lund, Henrik; Mathiesen, Brian Vad
2015-01-01
At a global level, it is essential that the world transfers from fossil fuels to renewable energy resources to minimize the implications of climate change, which has been clearly demonstrated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007a). At a national level, for most countries, ...... are presented on individual technologies and complete energy system strategies, which outline how it is possible to reach a 100% renewable energy system in the coming decades.......At a global level, it is essential that the world transfers from fossil fuels to renewable energy resources to minimize the implications of climate change, which has been clearly demonstrated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007a). At a national level, for most countries......, the transition to renewable energy will improve energy security of supply, create new jobs, enhance trade, and consequently grow the national economy. However, even with such promising consequences, renewable energy only provided approximately 13% of the world's energy in 2007 (International Energy Agency, 2009a...
Nuclear symmetry energy in density dependent hadronic models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Haddad, S.
2008-12-01
The density dependence of the symmetry energy and the correlation between parameters of the symmetry energy and the neutron skin thickness in the nucleus 208 Pb are investigated in relativistic Hadronic models. The dependency of the symmetry energy on density is linear around saturation density. Correlation exists between the neutron skin thickness in the nucleus 208 Pb and the value of the nuclear symmetry energy at saturation density, but not with the slope of the symmetry energy at saturation density. (author)
Novel simplified hourly energy flow models for photovoltaic power systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Khatib, Tamer; Elmenreich, Wilfried
2014-01-01
Highlights: • We developed an energy flow model for standalone PV system using MATLAB line code. • We developed an energy flow model for hybrid PV/wind system using MATLAB line code. • We developed an energy flow model for hybrid PV/diesel system using MATLAB line code. - Abstract: This paper presents simplified energy flow models for photovoltaic (PV) power systems using MATLAB. Three types of PV power system are taken into consideration namely standalone PV systems, hybrid PV/wind systems and hybrid PV/diesel systems. The logic of the energy flow for each PV power system is discussed first and then the MATLAB line codes for these models are provided and explained. The results prove the accuracy of the proposed models. Such models help modeling and sizing PV systems
A Unified Model of Phantom Energy and Dark Matter
Chaves, Max; Singleton, Douglas
2008-01-01
To explain the acceleration of the cosmological expansion researchers have considered an unusual form of mass-energy generically called dark energy. Dark energy has a ratio of pressure over mass density which obeys w = p/ρ theories based on graded Lie algebras naturally have such a negative kinetic energy and thus give a model for phantom energy in a less ad hoc manner. We find that the model also contains ordinary scalar fields and anti-commuting (Grassmann) vector fields which act as a form of two component dark matter. Thus from a gauge theory based o! n a graded algebra we naturally obtained both phantom energy and dark matter.
Interacting agegraphic dark energy models in non-flat universe
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sheykhi, Ahmad
2009-01-01
A so-called 'agegraphic dark energy' was recently proposed to explain the dark energy-dominated universe. In this Letter, we generalize the agegraphic dark energy models to the universe with spatial curvature in the presence of interaction between dark matter and dark energy. We show that these models can accommodate w D =-1 crossing for the equation of state of dark energy. In the limiting case of a flat universe, i.e. k=0, all previous results of agegraphic dark energy in flat universe are restored.
Energy Balance 4 Kids with Play: Results from a Two-Year Cluster-Randomized Trial.
Madsen, Kristine; Linchey, Jennifer; Gerstein, Dana; Ross, Michelle; Myers, Esther; Brown, Katie; Crawford, Patricia
2015-08-01
Identifying sustainable approaches to improving the physical activity (PA) and nutrition environments in schools is an important public health goal. This study examined the impact of Energy Balance for Kids with Play (EB4K with Play), a school-based intervention developed by the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics Foundation and Playworks, on students' PA, dietary habits and knowledge, and weight status over 2 years. This cluster-randomized, controlled trial took place in four intervention and two control schools over 2 years (n=879; third- to fifth-grade students). PA (fourth and fifth grades only), dietary knowledge and behaviors, school policies, and BMI z-score were assessed at baseline (fall 2011), midpoint (spring 2012), and endpoint (fall 2012 for accelerometers; spring 2013 for all other outcomes). At endpoint, there were no group differences in change in PA or dietary behaviors, although BMI z-score decreased overall by -0.07 (p=0.05). Students' dietary knowledge significantly increased, as did the amount of vegetables schools served. Post-hoc analyses stratified by grade revealed that, relative to control students, fourth-grade intervention students reduced school-day sedentary time by 15 minutes (p=0.023) and third-grade intervention students reduced BMI z-score by -0.2 (0.05; pchildren's dietary knowledge and may improve weight status and decrease sedentary behaviors among younger children. Future iterations should examine programming specific for different age groups.
Parametric level correlations in random-matrix models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Weidenmueller, Hans A
2005-01-01
We show that parametric level correlations in random-matrix theories are closely related to a breaking of the symmetry between the advanced and the retarded Green functions. The form of the parametric level correlation function is the same as for the disordered case considered earlier by Simons and Altshuler and is given by the graded trace of the commutator of the saddle-point solution with the particular matrix that describes the symmetry breaking in the actual case of interest. The strength factor differs from the case of disorder. It is determined solely by the Goldstone mode. It is essentially given by the number of levels that are strongly mixed as the external parameter changes. The factor can easily be estimated in applications
Model documentation report: Transportation sector model of the National Energy Modeling System
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
1994-03-01
This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Transportation Model (TRAN). The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated by the model. This document serves three purposes. First, it is a reference document providing a detailed description of TRAN for model analysts, users, and the public. Second, this report meets the legal requirements of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its statistical and forecast reports (Public Law 93-275, 57(b)(1)). Third, it permits continuity in model development by providing documentation from which energy analysts can undertake model enhancements, data updates, and parameter refinements.
Dynamic modeling, simulation and control of energy generation
Vepa, Ranjan
2013-01-01
This book addresses the core issues involved in the dynamic modeling, simulation and control of a selection of energy systems such as gas turbines, wind turbines, fuel cells and batteries. The principles of modeling and control could be applied to other non-convention methods of energy generation such as solar energy and wave energy.A central feature of Dynamic Modeling, Simulation and Control of Energy Generation is that it brings together diverse topics in thermodynamics, fluid mechanics, heat transfer, electro-chemistry, electrical networks and electrical machines and focuses on their appli
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hongqiang Liu
2016-06-01
Full Text Available A Bayesian random effects modeling approach was used to examine the influence of neighborhood characteristics on burglary risks in Jianghan District, Wuhan, China. This random effects model is essentially spatial; a spatially structured random effects term and an unstructured random effects term are added to the traditional non-spatial Poisson regression model. Based on social disorganization and routine activity theories, five covariates extracted from the available data at the neighborhood level were used in the modeling. Three regression models were fitted and compared by the deviance information criterion to identify which model best fit our data. A comparison of the results from the three models indicates that the Bayesian random effects model is superior to the non-spatial models in fitting the data and estimating regression coefficients. Our results also show that neighborhoods with above average bar density and department store density have higher burglary risks. Neighborhood-specific burglary risks and posterior probabilities of neighborhoods having a burglary risk greater than 1.0 were mapped, indicating the neighborhoods that should warrant more attention and be prioritized for crime intervention and reduction. Implications and limitations of the study are discussed in our concluding section.
Aymerich, I; Rieger, L; Sobhani, R; Rosso, D; Corominas, Ll
2015-09-15
The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of incorporating more realistic energy cost models (based on current energy tariff structures) into existing water resource recovery facilities (WRRFs) process models when evaluating technologies and cost-saving control strategies. In this paper, we first introduce a systematic framework to model energy usage at WRRFs and a generalized structure to describe energy tariffs including the most common billing terms. Secondly, this paper introduces a detailed energy cost model based on a Spanish energy tariff structure coupled with a WRRF process model to evaluate several control strategies and provide insights into the selection of the contracted power structure. The results for a 1-year evaluation on a 115,000 population-equivalent WRRF showed monthly cost differences ranging from 7 to 30% when comparing the detailed energy cost model to an average energy price. The evaluation of different aeration control strategies also showed that using average energy prices and neglecting energy tariff structures may lead to biased conclusions when selecting operating strategies or comparing technologies or equipment. The proposed framework demonstrated that for cost minimization, control strategies should be paired with a specific optimal contracted power. Hence, the design of operational and control strategies must take into account the local energy tariff. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
A dynamic random effects multinomial logit model of household car ownership
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bue Bjørner, Thomas; Leth-Petersen, Søren
2007-01-01
Using a large household panel we estimate demand for car ownership by means of a dynamic multinomial model with correlated random effects. Results suggest that the persistence in car ownership observed in the data should be attributed to both true state dependence and to unobserved heterogeneity...... (random effects). It also appears that random effects related to single and multiple car ownership are correlated, suggesting that the IIA assumption employed in simple multinomial models of car ownership is invalid. Relatively small elasticities with respect to income and car costs are estimated...
Quantifying the geopolitical dimension of energy risks: A tool for energy modelling and planning
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Muñoz, Beatriz; García-Verdugo, Javier; San-Martín, Enrique
2015-01-01
Energy risk and security are topical issues in energy analysis and policy. However, the quantitative analysis of energy risk presents significant methodological difficulties, especially when dealing with certain of its more qualitative dimensions. The aim of this paper is to quantitatively estimate the geopolitical risk of energy supply with the help of a multivariate statistical technique, factor analysis. Four partial energy risk factors were computed for 122 countries, which were subsequently aggregated to form the composite GESRI (Geopolitical Energy Supply Risk Index). The results demonstrate that advanced economies present a lower level of geopolitical energy risk, especially countries with energy resources, while less-developed countries register higher levels of risk regardless of their energy production. Although this indicator is computed for countries, it can be aggregated for regions or corridors, and it could also be applied to model and scenario building. The different uses of the GESRI could eventually lead to practical implications in the energy policy field, as well as in the energy planning and energy management areas. - Highlights: • We quantitatively estimate the multidimensional geopolitical risk of energy supply. • Factor analysis was used to reveal energy risk, a variable not directly observable. • Advanced economies with energy resources present the lowest level of energy risk. • Less-developed countries obtain high risk values even when they are energy producers. • The proposed index can be used for energy planning and energy management purposes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Renou, P.
1992-01-01
This thesis studies energy demand and alternative energy sources in OECD countries. In the first part, the principle models usually used for energy demand modelling. In the second part, the author studies the flexible functional forms (translog, generalized Leontief, generalized quadratic, Fourier) to obtain an estimation of the production function. In the third part, several examples are given, chosen in seven countries (Usa, Japan, Federal Republic of Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy, Canada). Energy systems analysis in these countries, can help to choose models and gives informations on alternative energies. 246 refs., 24 figs., 27 tabs
UK energy policy ambition and UK energy modelling-fit for purpose?
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Strachan, Neil
2011-01-01
Aiming to lead amongst other G20 countries, the UK government has classified the twin energy policy priorities of decarbonisation and security of supply as a 'centennial challenge'. This viewpoint discusses the UK's capacity for energy modelling and scenario building as a critical underpinning of iterative decision making to meet these policy ambitions. From a nadir, over the last decade UK modelling expertise has been steadily built up. However extreme challenges remain in the level and consistency of funding of core model teams - critical to ensure a full scope of energy model types and hence insights, and in developing new state-of-the-art models to address evolving uncertainties. Meeting this challenge will facilitate a broad scope of types and geographical scale of UK's analytical tools to responsively deliver the evidence base for a range of public and private sector decision makers, and ensure that the UK contributes to global efforts to advance the field of energy-economic modelling. - Research highlights: → Energy modelling capacity is a critical underpinning for iterative energy policy making. → Full scope of energy models and analytical approaches is required. → Extreme challenges remain in consistent and sustainable funding of energy modelling teams. → National governments that lead in global energy policy also need to invest in modelling capacity.
Modelling renewable energy economy in Ghana with autometrics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ackah, Ishmael; Asomani, Mcomari
2015-01-01
Renewable energy consumption has been identified as a potential solution to the intermittent power supply in Ghana. Recently, a Renewable Energy Act has been passed which has a target of 10% of renewable energy component in Ghana's energy mix by 2020. Whilst effort is been made to enhance supply through feed in tariffs, education and tax reduction on renewable energy related equipment, there is the need to understand the drivers of renewable energy demand. In this study, the general unrestricted model through Autometrics is used to estimate the determinants of renewable energy demand in Ghana. The results indicate that both economic factors and non-economic affect the demand for renewable energy. In addition, the underlying energy demand trend exhibits energy using behaviour. The study recommends that economic factors such as consumer subsidies should be considered when promoting renewable energy demand.
Modelling renewable energy economy in Ghana with autometrics
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ackah, Ishmael; Asomani, Mcomari [Africa Centre for Energy Policy, Accra (Ghana); Kwame Nkrumah Univ. of Science and Technology, Kumasi (Ghana)
2015-04-15
Renewable energy consumption has been identified as a potential solution to the intermittent power supply in Ghana. Recently, a Renewable Energy Act has been passed which has a target of 10% of renewable energy component in Ghana's energy mix by 2020. Whilst effort is been made to enhance supply through feed in tariffs, education and tax reduction on renewable energy related equipment, there is the need to understand the drivers of renewable energy demand. In this study, the general unrestricted model through Autometrics is used to estimate the determinants of renewable energy demand in Ghana. The results indicate that both economic factors and non-economic affect the demand for renewable energy. In addition, the underlying energy demand trend exhibits energy using behaviour. The study recommends that economic factors such as consumer subsidies should be considered when promoting renewable energy demand.
Energy Resilience Modeling for Smart Houses
Ghasemieh, Hamed; Haverkort, Boudewijn R.H.M.; Jongerden, M.R.; Remke, Anne Katharina Ingrid
The use of renewable energy in houses and neighbourhoods is very much governed by national legislation and has recently led to enormous changes in the energy market and poses a serious threat to the stability of the grid at peak production times. One of the approaches towards a more balanced grid
MODELING SIMULATION AND PERFORMANCE STUDY OF GRIDCONNECTED PHOTOVOLTAIC ENERGY SYSTEM
Nagendra K; Karthik J; Keerthi Rao C; Kumar Raja Pemmadi
2017-01-01
This paper presents Modeling Simulation of grid connected Photovoltaic Energy System and performance study using MATLAB/Simulink. The Photovoltaic energy system is considered in three main parts PV Model, Power conditioning System and Grid interface. The Photovoltaic Model is inter-connected with grid through full scale power electronic devices. The simulation is conducted on the PV energy system at normal temperature and at constant load by using MATLAB.
Model of sustainable development of energy system, case of Hamedan
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sahabmanesh, Aref; Saboohi, Yadollah
2017-01-01
Sustainable economic growth and improvement of the social welfare depend upon the sufficient supply of energy resources, while the utilization of energy resources is one of the main factors of environmental degradation. This research is involved with development of a sustainable energy system model and a new method for sustainability assessment. This model represents the flow of energy from primary resources through processing, conversion, and end-use technologies in an optimization framework where the useful energy demand in various social and economic sectors is met. The impact of energy supply and consumption chain on the environment at each level of energy system is also embedded in the model structure. A multi-criteria analysis of changes is then applied and sustainable development indices of the whole system are concluded. Finally, effects of the energy subsidy policy and high economic growth rate on sustainability of the energy system in three scenarios are analyzed. Results demonstrate that energy subsidy decelerates the improvement rate of the total sustainability index. Also, when a high economic growth is accompanied with the energy subsidy this index reduces considerably. Results show that how penetration of renewable energy potentials changes the sustainability situation of energy systems. - Highlights: • Developing a new model for sustainable energy systems. • Presenting a new method for sustainability assessment of energy systems. • Optimizing the energy flow and capacity expansion of Hamedan energy system. • Utilizing an MCDA approach to obtain sustainability indices of the whole system. • Analysis of energy subsidy and high economic growth on energy sustainability.
Visual prosthesis wireless energy transfer system optimal modeling.
Li, Xueping; Yang, Yuan; Gao, Yong
2014-01-16
Wireless energy transfer system is an effective way to solve the visual prosthesis energy supply problems, theoretical modeling of the system is the prerequisite to do optimal energy transfer system design. On the basis of the ideal model of the wireless energy transfer system, according to visual prosthesis application condition, the system modeling is optimized. During the optimal modeling, taking planar spiral coils as the coupling devices between energy transmitter and receiver, the effect of the parasitic capacitance of the transfer coil is considered, and especially the concept of biological capacitance is proposed to consider the influence of biological tissue on the energy transfer efficiency, resulting in the optimal modeling's more accuracy for the actual application. The simulation data of the optimal model in this paper is compared with that of the previous ideal model, the results show that under high frequency condition, the parasitic capacitance of inductance and biological capacitance considered in the optimal model could have great impact on the wireless energy transfer system. The further comparison with the experimental data verifies the validity and accuracy of the optimal model proposed in this paper. The optimal model proposed in this paper has a higher theoretical guiding significance for the wireless energy transfer system's further research, and provide a more precise model reference for solving the power supply problem in visual prosthesis clinical application.
A spatial error model with continuous random effects and an application to growth convergence
Laurini, Márcio Poletti
2017-10-01
We propose a spatial error model with continuous random effects based on Matérn covariance functions and apply this model for the analysis of income convergence processes (β -convergence). The use of a model with continuous random effects permits a clearer visualization and interpretation of the spatial dependency patterns, avoids the problems of defining neighborhoods in spatial econometrics models, and allows projecting the spatial effects for every possible location in the continuous space, circumventing the existing aggregations in discrete lattice representations. We apply this model approach to analyze the economic growth of Brazilian municipalities between 1991 and 2010 using unconditional and conditional formulations and a spatiotemporal model of convergence. The results indicate that the estimated spatial random effects are consistent with the existence of income convergence clubs for Brazilian municipalities in this period.
Technology assessment in energy landscapes. Agent-based modeling of energy conflicts
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Scheffran, Juergen; Link, P. Michael; Shaaban, Mostafa; Suesser, Diana
2017-01-01
The risks and conflicts of the fossil-nuclear age are in contrast to the effects of renewable energies which appear in a largely positive light. However, the transformation towards a low-carbon energy supply creates new energy landscapes with a high demand for suitable land areas - which may also provoke energy conflicts. Technology assessment can contribute to reducing such energy conflicts and increasing public acceptance by using spatial agent-based models that represent dynamic decisions and interactions of stakeholders regarding energy alternatives and land-use options. Northern Germany serves as a case study region where farmers and communities are local actors of the energy transition.
Net energy analysis in a Ramsey–Hotelling growth model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Macías, Arturo; Matilla-García, Mariano
2015-01-01
This article presents a dynamic growth model with energy as an input in the production function. The available stock of energy resources is ordered by a quality parameter based on energy accounting: the “Energy Return on Energy Invested” (EROI). In our knowledge this is the first paper where EROI fits in a neoclassical growth model (with individual utility maximization and market equilibrium), establishing the economic use of “net energy analysis” on a firmer theoretical ground. All necessary concepts to link neoclassical economics and EROI are discussed before their use in the model, and a comparative static analysis of the steady states of a simplified version of the model is presented. - Highlights: • A neoclassical growth model with EROI (“Energy Return on Energy Invested”) is shown • All concepts linking neoclassical economics and net energy analysis are discussed • Any EROI decline can be compensated increasing gross activity in the energy sector. • The economic impact of EROI depends on some non-energy cost in the energy sector. • Comparative steady-state statics for different EROI levels is performed and discussed. • Policy implications are suggested.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1996-01-01
The Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) of the National Energy Modeling System is developed and maintained by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. This report documents the archived version of the NGTDM that was used to produce the natural gas forecasts presented in the Annual Energy Outlook 1996, (DOE/EIA-0383(96)). The purpose of this report is to provide a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public that defines the objectives of the model, describes its basic approach, and provides detail on the methodology employed. Previously this report represented Volume I of a two-volume set. Volume II reported on model performance, detailing convergence criteria and properties, results of sensitivity testing, comparison of model outputs with the literature and/or other model results, and major unresolved issues
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
NONE
1996-02-26
The Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) of the National Energy Modeling System is developed and maintained by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. This report documents the archived version of the NGTDM that was used to produce the natural gas forecasts presented in the Annual Energy Outlook 1996, (DOE/EIA-0383(96)). The purpose of this report is to provide a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public that defines the objectives of the model, describes its basic approach, and provides detail on the methodology employed. Previously this report represented Volume I of a two-volume set. Volume II reported on model performance, detailing convergence criteria and properties, results of sensitivity testing, comparison of model outputs with the literature and/or other model results, and major unresolved issues.
Rogeaulito: a world energy scenario modeling tool for transparent energy system thinking
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Léo eBenichou
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Rogeaulito is a world energy model for scenario building developed by the European think tank The Shift Project. It’s a tool to explore world energy choices from a very long-term and systematic perspective. As a key feature and novelty it computes energy supply and demand independently from each other revealing potentially missing energy supply by 2100. It is further simple to use, didactic and open source. As such, it targets a broad user group and advocates for reproducibility and transparency in scenario modeling as well as model-based learning. Rogeaulito applies an engineering approach using disaggregated data in a spreadsheet model.
Rogeaulito: A World Energy Scenario Modeling Tool for Transparent Energy System Thinking
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Benichou, Léo; Mayr, Sebastian
2014-01-01
Rogeaulito is a world energy model for scenario building developed by the European think tank The Shift Project. It’s a tool to explore world energy choices from a very long-term and systematic perspective. As a key feature and novelty it computes energy supply and demand independently from each other revealing potentially missing energy supply by 2100. It is further simple to use, didactic, and open source. As such, it targets a broad user group and advocates for reproducibility and transparency in scenario modeling as well as model-based learning. Rogeaulito applies an engineering approach using disaggregated data in a spreadsheet model.
Rogeaulito: A World Energy Scenario Modeling Tool for Transparent Energy System Thinking
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Benichou, Léo, E-mail: leo.benichou@theshiftproject.org [The Shift Project, Paris (France); Mayr, Sebastian, E-mail: communication@theshiftproject.org [Paris School of International Affairs, Sciences Po., Paris (France)
2014-01-13
Rogeaulito is a world energy model for scenario building developed by the European think tank The Shift Project. It’s a tool to explore world energy choices from a very long-term and systematic perspective. As a key feature and novelty it computes energy supply and demand independently from each other revealing potentially missing energy supply by 2100. It is further simple to use, didactic, and open source. As such, it targets a broad user group and advocates for reproducibility and transparency in scenario modeling as well as model-based learning. Rogeaulito applies an engineering approach using disaggregated data in a spreadsheet model.
Developing an Energy Performance Modeling Startup Kit
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wood, A.
2012-10-01
In 2011, the NAHB Research Center began the first part of the multi-year effort by assessing the needs and motivations of residential remodelers regarding energy performance remodeling. The scope is multifaceted - all perspectives will be sought related to remodeling firms ranging in size from small-scale, sole proprietor to national. This will allow the Research Center to gain a deeper understanding of the remodeling and energy retrofit business and the needs of contractors when offering energy upgrade services. To determine the gaps and the motivation for energy performance remodeling, the NAHB Research Center conducted (1) an initial series of focus groups with remodelers at the 2011 International Builders' Show, (2) a second series of focus groups with remodelers at the NAHB Research Center in conjunction with the NAHB Spring Board meeting in DC, and (3) quantitative market research with remodelers based on the findings from the focus groups. The goal was threefold, to: Understand the current remodeling industry and the role of energy efficiency; Identify the gaps and barriers to adding energy efficiency into remodeling; and Quantify and prioritize the support needs of professional remodelers to increase sales and projects involving improving home energy efficiency. This report outlines all three of these tasks with remodelers.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
NONE
1994-02-24
The Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) is a component of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to represent the domestic natural gas transmission and distribution system. NEMS is the third in a series of computer-based, midterm energy modeling systems used since 1974 by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and its predecessor, the Federal Energy Administration, to analyze domestic energy-economy markets and develop projections. This report documents the archived version of NGTDM that was used to produce the natural gas forecasts used in support of the Annual Energy Outlook 1994, DOE/EIA-0383(94). The purpose of this report is to provide a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public that defines the objectives of the model, describes its basic design, provides detail on the methodology employed, and describes the model inputs, outputs, and key assumptions. It is intended to fulfill the legal obligation of the EIA to provide adequate documentation in support of its models (Public Law 94-385, Section 57.b.2). This report represents Volume 1 of a two-volume set. (Volume 2 will report on model performance, detailing convergence criteria and properties, results of sensitivity testing, comparison of model outputs with the literature and/or other model results, and major unresolved issues.) Subsequent chapters of this report provide: (1) an overview of the NGTDM (Chapter 2); (2) a description of the interface between the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and the NGTDM (Chapter 3); (3) an overview of the solution methodology of the NGTDM (Chapter 4); (4) the solution methodology for the Annual Flow Module (Chapter 5); (5) the solution methodology for the Distributor Tariff Module (Chapter 6); (6) the solution methodology for the Capacity Expansion Module (Chapter 7); (7) the solution methodology for the Pipeline Tariff Module (Chapter 8); and (8) a description of model assumptions, inputs, and outputs (Chapter 9).
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Blair, N.; Jenkin, T.; Milford, J.; Short, W.; Sullivan, P.; Evans, D.; Lieberman, E.; Goldstein, G.; Wright, E.; Jayaraman, K. R.; Venkatesh, B.; Kleiman, G.; Namovicz, C.; Smith, B.; Palmer, K.; Wiser, R.; Wood, F.
2009-09-01
Energy system modeling can be intentionally or unintentionally misused by decision-makers. This report describes how both can be minimized through careful use of models and thorough understanding of their underlying approaches and assumptions. The analysis summarized here assesses the impact that model and data choices have on forecasting energy systems by comparing seven different electric-sector models. This analysis was coordinated by the Renewable Energy and Efficiency Modeling Analysis Partnership (REMAP), a collaboration among governmental, academic, and nongovernmental participants.
Zhang, Xueliang; Xiao, Pengfeng; Feng, Xuezhi
2017-09-01
It has been a common idea to produce multiscale segmentations to represent the various geographic objects in high-spatial resolution remote sensing (HR) images. However, it remains a great challenge to automatically select the proper segmentation scale(s) just according to the image information. In this study, we propose a novel way of information fusion at object level by combining hierarchical multiscale segmentations with existed thematic information produced by classification or recognition. The tree Markov random field (T-MRF) model is designed for the multiscale combination framework, through which the object type is determined as close as the existed thematic information. At the same time, the object boundary is jointly determined by the thematic labels and the multiscale segments through the minimization of the energy function. The benefits of the proposed T-MRF combination model include: (1) reducing the dependence of segmentation scale selection when utilizing multiscale segmentations; (2) exploring the hierarchical context naturally imbedded in the multiscale segmentations. The HR images in both urban and rural areas are used in the experiments to show the effectiveness of the proposed combination framework on these two aspects.
Zero-inflated count models for longitudinal measurements with heterogeneous random effects.
Zhu, Huirong; Luo, Sheng; DeSantis, Stacia M
2017-08-01
Longitudinal zero-inflated count data arise frequently in substance use research when assessing the effects of behavioral and pharmacological interventions. Zero-inflated count models (e.g. zero-inflated Poisson or zero-inflated negative binomial) with random effects have been developed to analyze this type of data. In random effects zero-inflated count models, the random effects covariance matrix is typically assumed to be homogeneous (constant across subjects). However, in many situations this matrix may be heterogeneous (differ by measured covariates). In this paper, we extend zero-inflated count models to account for random effects heterogeneity by modeling their variance as a function of covariates. We show via simulation that ignoring intervention and covariate-specific heterogeneity can produce biased estimates of covariate and random effect estimates. Moreover, those biased estimates can be rectified by correctly modeling the random effects covariance structure. The methodological development is motivated by and applied to the Combined Pharmacotherapies and Behavioral Interventions for Alcohol Dependence (COMBINE) study, the largest clinical trial of alcohol dependence performed in United States with 1383 individuals.
A simple model of global cascades on random networks
Watts, Duncan J.
2002-04-01
The origin of large but rare cascades that are triggered by small initial shocks is a phenomenon that manifests itself as diversely as cultural fads, collective action, the diffusion of norms and innovations, and cascading failures in infrastructure and organizational networks. This paper presents a possible explanation of this phenomenon in terms of a sparse, random network of interacting agents whose decisions are determined by the actions of their neighbors according to a simple threshold rule. Two regimes are identified in which the network is susceptible to very large cascadesherein called global cascadesthat occur very rarely. When cascade propagation is limited by the connectivity of the network, a power law distribution of cascade sizes is observed, analogous to the cluster size distribution in standard percolation theory and avalanches in self-organized criticality. But when the network is highly connected, cascade propagation is limited instead by the local stability of the nodes themselves, and the size distribution of cascades is bimodal, implying a more extreme kind of instability that is correspondingly harder to anticipate. In the first regime, where the distribution of network neighbors is highly skewed, it is found that the most connected nodes are far more likely than average nodes to trigger cascades, but not in the second regime. Finally, it is shown that heterogeneity plays an ambiguous role in determining a system's stability: increasingly heterogeneous thresholds make the system more vulnerable to global cascades; but an increasingly heterogeneous degree distribution makes it less vulnerable.
Modelling of Graphene Nanoribbon Fermi Energy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Johari, Z.; Ahmadi, M.T.; Chek, D.C.Y.; Amin, N.A.; Ismail, R.
2010-01-01
Graphene nano ribbon (GNR) is a promising alternative to carbon nano tube (CNT) to overcome the chirality challenge as a nano scale device channel. Due to the one-dimensional behavior of plane GNR, the carrier statistic study is attractive. Research works have been done on carrier statistic study of GNR especially in the parabolic part of the band structure using Boltzmann approximation (nondegenerate regime). Based on the quantum confinement effect, we have improved the fundamental study in degenerate regime for both the parabolic and non parabolic parts of GNR band energy. Our results demonstrate that the band energy of GNR near to the minimum band energy is parabolic. In this part of the band structure, the Fermi-Dirac integrals are sufficient for the carrier concentration study. The Fermi energy showed the temperature-dependent behavior similar to any other one-dimensional device in nondegenerate regime. However in the degenerate regime, the normalized Fermi energy with respect to the band edge is a function of carrier concentration. The numerical solution of Fermi-Dirac integrals for non parabolic region, which is away from the minimum energy band structure of GNR, is also presented.
A cellular automata model of traffic flow with variable probability of randomization
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zheng Wei-Fan; Zhang Ji-Ye
2015-01-01
Research on the stochastic behavior of traffic flow is important to understand the intrinsic evolution rules of a traffic system. By introducing an interactional potential of vehicles into the randomization step, an improved cellular automata traffic flow model with variable probability of randomization is proposed in this paper. In the proposed model, the driver is affected by the interactional potential of vehicles before him, and his decision-making process is related to the interactional potential. Compared with the traditional cellular automata model, the modeling is more suitable for the driver’s random decision-making process based on the vehicle and traffic situations in front of him in actual traffic. From the improved model, the fundamental diagram (flow–density relationship) is obtained, and the detailed high-density traffic phenomenon is reproduced through numerical simulation. (paper)
Forecast of useful energy for the TIMES-Norway model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rosenberg, Eva
2012-01-01
A regional forecast of useful energy demand in seven Norwegian regions is calculated based on an earlier work with a national forecast. This forecast will be input to the energy system model TIMES-Norway and analyses will result in forecasts of energy use of different energy carriers with varying external conditions (not included in this report). The forecast presented here describes the methodology used and the resulting forecast of useful energy. lt is based on information of the long-term development of the economy by the Ministry of Finance, projections of population growths from Statistics Norway and several other studies. The definition of a forecast of useful energy demand is not absolute, but depends on the purpose. One has to be careful not to include parts that are a part of the energy system model, such as energy efficiency measures. In the forecast presented here the influence of new building regulations and the prohibition of production of incandescent light bulbs in EU etc. are included. Other energy efficiency measures such as energy management, heat pumps, tightening of leaks etc. are modelled as technologies to invest in and are included in the TIMES-Norway model. The elasticity between different energy carriers are handled by the TIMES-Norway model and some elasticity is also included as the possibility to invest in energy efficiency measures. The forecast results in an increase of the total useful energy from 2006 to 2050 by 18 o/o. The growth is expected to be highest in the regions South and East. The industry remains at a constant level in the base case and increased or reduced energy demand is analysed as different scenarios with the TIMES-Norway model. The most important driver is the population growth. Together with the assumptions made it results in increased useful energy demand in the household and service sectors of 25 o/o and 57 % respectively.(au)
Forecast of useful energy for the TIMES-Norway model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rosenberg, Eva
2012-07-25
A regional forecast of useful energy demand in seven Norwegian regions is calculated based on an earlier work with a national forecast. This forecast will be input to the energy system model TIMES-Norway and analyses will result in forecasts of energy use of different energy carriers with varying external conditions (not included in this report). The forecast presented here describes the methodology used and the resulting forecast of useful energy. lt is based on information of the long-term development of the economy by the Ministry of Finance, projections of population growths from Statistics Norway and several other studies. The definition of a forecast of useful energy demand is not absolute, but depends on the purpose. One has to be careful not to include parts that are a part of the energy system model, such as energy efficiency measures. In the forecast presented here the influence of new building regulations and the prohibition of production of incandescent light bulbs in EU etc. are included. Other energy efficiency measures such as energy management, heat pumps, tightening of leaks etc. are modelled as technologies to invest in and are included in the TIMES-Norway model. The elasticity between different energy carriers are handled by the TIMES-Norway model and some elasticity is also included as the possibility to invest in energy efficiency measures. The forecast results in an increase of the total useful energy from 2006 to 2050 by 18 o/o. The growth is expected to be highest in the regions South and East. The industry remains at a constant level in the base case and increased or reduced energy demand is analysed as different scenarios with the TIMES-Norway model. The most important driver is the population growth. Together with the assumptions made it results in increased useful energy demand in the household and service sectors of 25 o/o and 57 % respectively.(au)
Modelling energy expenditure of a brick layer at various postures ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Energy utilisation at work in the labour-intensive building industry is of prime importance to contractors who match people to jobs. This paper provides an insight into modelling energy expenditure in a specific task, namely brick laying in various postures. It therefore takes previous “generic” biomechanical-energy prediction ...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rios, Paulo R; Assis, Weslley L S; Ribeiro, Tatiana C S; Villa, Elena
2012-01-01
In a classical paper, Cahn derived expressions for the kinetics of transformations nucleated on random planes and lines. He used those as a model for nucleation on the boundaries, edges and vertices of a polycrystal consisting of equiaxed grains. In this paper it is demonstrated that Cahn's expression for random planes may be used in situations beyond the scope envisaged in Cahn's original paper. For instance, we derived an expression for the kinetics of transformations nucleated on random parallel planes that is identical to that formerly obtained by Cahn considering random planes. Computer simulation of transformations nucleated on random parallel planes is carried out. It is shown that there is excellent agreement between simulated results and analytical solutions. Such an agreement is to be expected if both the simulation and the analytical solution are correct. (paper)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gabriel Recchia
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Circular convolution and random permutation have each been proposed as neurally plausible binding operators capable of encoding sequential information in semantic memory. We perform several controlled comparisons of circular convolution and random permutation as means of encoding paired associates as well as encoding sequential information. Random permutations outperformed convolution with respect to the number of paired associates that can be reliably stored in a single memory trace. Performance was equal on semantic tasks when using a small corpus, but random permutations were ultimately capable of achieving superior performance due to their higher scalability to large corpora. Finally, “noisy” permutations in which units are mapped to other units arbitrarily (no one-to-one mapping perform nearly as well as true permutations. These findings increase the neurological plausibility of random permutations and highlight their utility in vector space models of semantics.
Stochastic linear dynamical programming in order to apply it in energy modelling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
El Hachem, S
1995-11-01
This thesis contributes to the development of new algorithms for the computation of stochastic dynamic problem and its mini-maxi variant for the case of imperfect knowledge on random data. The proposed algorithms are scenarios aggregation type. It also contributes to integrate these algorithms in a decision support approach and to discuss the stochastic modeling of two energy problems: the refining and the portfolio gas contracts. (author). 112 refs., 5 tabs.
General Business Model Patterns for Local Energy Management Concepts
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Facchinetti, Emanuele, E-mail: emanuele.facchinetti@hslu.ch; Sulzer, Sabine [Lucerne Competence Center for Energy Research, Lucerne University of Applied Science and Arts, Horw (Switzerland)
2016-03-03
The transition toward a more sustainable global energy system, significantly relying on renewable energies and decentralized energy systems, requires a deep reorganization of the energy sector. The way how energy services are generated, delivered, and traded is expected to be very different in the coming years. Business model innovation is recognized as a key driver for the successful implementation of the energy turnaround. This work contributes to this topic by introducing a heuristic methodology easing the identification of general business model patterns best suited for Local Energy Management concepts such as Energy Hubs. A conceptual framework characterizing the Local Energy Management business model solution space is developed. Three reference business model patterns providing orientation across the defined solution space are identified, analyzed, and compared. Through a market review, a number of successfully implemented innovative business models have been analyzed and allocated within the defined solution space. The outcomes of this work offer to potential stakeholders a starting point and guidelines for the business model innovation process, as well as insights for policy makers on challenges and opportunities related to Local Energy Management concepts.
General Business Model Patterns for Local Energy Management Concepts
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Facchinetti, Emanuele; Sulzer, Sabine
2016-01-01
The transition toward a more sustainable global energy system, significantly relying on renewable energies and decentralized energy systems, requires a deep reorganization of the energy sector. The way how energy services are generated, delivered, and traded is expected to be very different in the coming years. Business model innovation is recognized as a key driver for the successful implementation of the energy turnaround. This work contributes to this topic by introducing a heuristic methodology easing the identification of general business model patterns best suited for Local Energy Management concepts such as Energy Hubs. A conceptual framework characterizing the Local Energy Management business model solution space is developed. Three reference business model patterns providing orientation across the defined solution space are identified, analyzed, and compared. Through a market review, a number of successfully implemented innovative business models have been analyzed and allocated within the defined solution space. The outcomes of this work offer to potential stakeholders a starting point and guidelines for the business model innovation process, as well as insights for policy makers on challenges and opportunities related to Local Energy Management concepts.