Sample records for rainfall runoff model

  1. Regional Analysis of Conceptual Rainfall Runoff Models for Runoff ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Regional Analysis of Conceptual Rainfall Runoff Models for Runoff Simulation In Ungauged Catchments: The Case Of Upper Ewaso Ngiro Drainage Basin in Kenya. ... This involved, in the case of suction at the wetting front and hydraulic conductivity, deriving the parameter values from soil texture. The remaining conceptual ...

  2. Assessment of runoff contributing catchment areas in rainfall runoff modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Johansen, C.; Schaarup-Jensen, Kjeld


    In numerical modelling of rainfall caused runoff in urban sewer systems an essential parameter is the hydrological reduction factor which defines the percentage of the impervious area contributing to the surface flow towards the sewer. As the hydrological processes during a rainfall are difficult...... to determine with significant precision the hydrological reduction factor is implemented to account all hydrological losses except the initial loss. This paper presents an inconsistency between calculations of the hydrological reduction factor, based on measurements of rainfall and runoff, and till now...... recommended literature values for residential areas. It is proven by comparing rainfall-runoff measurements from four different residential catchments that the literature values of the hydrological reduction factor are over-estimated for this type of catchment. In addition, different catchment descriptions...

  3. Assessment of Runoff Contributing Catchment Areas in Rainfall Runoff Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Johansen, C.; Schaarup-Jensen, Kjeld


    In numerical modelling of rainfall caused runoff in urban sewer systems an essential parameter is the hydrological reduction factor which defines the percentage of the impervious area contributing to the surface flow towards the sewer. As the hydrological processes during a rainfall are difficult...... to determine with significant precision the hydrological reduction factor is implemented to account all hydrological losses except the initial loss. This paper presents an inconsistency between calculations of the hydrological reduction factor, based on measurements of rainfall and runoff, and till now...... recommended literary values for residential areas. It is proven by comparing rainfall-runoff measurements from four different residential catchments that the literary values of the hydrological reduction factor are over-estimated for this type of catchments. In addition, different catchment descriptions...


    African Journals Online (AJOL)


    Jan 15, 2015 ... Also, by using SPSS software, the regression equations were developed and ... information technology, many rainfall-runoff models have developed. In modeling ... [1] used the Fuzzy logic method in rainfall-runoff modeling. ... artificial neural network had better results than linear transfer function model.


    African Journals Online (AJOL)


    Jan 15, 2015 ... [1] used the Fuzzy logic method in rainfall-runoff modeling. They determined the runoff from the rainfall in Neckar River catchment, in southwest of Germany. In their research, a conceptual, modular and semi-distributed model was used which was named. Hydrological Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) ...

  6. Development of rainfall-runoff forecast model | Oyebode | Journal of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study developed a neurofuzzy-based rainfall-runoff forecast model for river basin and evaluated the performance of the model. This was with a view to capturing the behaviour of hydrological and meterological variables involved in rainfall-runoff process to improve forecast accuracy of rainfallrunoff. Three hydrological ...

  7. Application of two rainfall - runoff models to Kelantan Catchment ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Rainfall-runoff models can be used for forecasting flow from catchments. Flow forecasting from a catchment has great use for proper water resources development and operational management. Countless models have been produced m different parts of the world to simulate this transformation of rainfall over the catchment ...


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Cilek


    Full Text Available The development and the application of rainfall-runoff models have been a corner-stone of hydrological research for many decades. The amount of rainfall and its intensity and variability control the generation of runoff and the erosional processes operating at different scales. These interactions can be greatly variable in Mediterranean catchments with marked hydrological fluctuations. The aim of the study was to evaluate the performance of rainfall-runoff model, for rainfall-runoff simulation in a Mediterranean subcatchment. The Pan-European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment (PESERA, a simplified hydrological process-based approach, was used in this study to combine hydrological surface runoff factors. In total 128 input layers derived from data set includes; climate, topography, land use, crop type, planting date, and soil characteristics, are required to run the model. Initial ground cover was estimated from the Landsat ETM data provided by ESA. This hydrological model was evaluated in terms of their performance in Goksu River Watershed, Turkey. It is located at the Central Eastern Mediterranean Basin of Turkey. The area is approximately 2000 km2. The landscape is dominated by bare ground, agricultural and forests. The average annual rainfall is 636.4mm. This study has a significant importance to evaluate different model performances in a complex Mediterranean basin. The results provided comprehensive insight including advantages and limitations of modelling approaches in the Mediterranean environment.

  9. Fuzzy committees of specialised rainfall-runoff models : Further enhancements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kayastha, N.; Ye, J.; Fenicia, F.; Solomatine, D.P.


    Often a single hydrological model cannot capture the details of a complex rainfall-runoff relationship, and a possibility here is building specialised models to be responsible for a particular aspect of this relationship and combining them forming a committee model. This study extends earlier work

  10. Impact of evapotranspiration process representation on runoff projections from conceptual rainfall-runoff models (United States)

    Guo, Danlu; Westra, Seth; Maier, Holger R.


    Conceptual rainfall-runoff models are commonly used to estimate potential changes in runoff due to climate change. The development of these models has generally focused on reproducing runoff characteristics, with less scrutiny on other important processes such as the conversion from potential evapotranspiration (PET) to actual evapotranspiration (AET). This study uses three conceptual rainfall-runoff models (GR4J, AWBM, and IHACRES_CMD) and five catchments in climatologically different regions of Australia to explore the role of ET process representation on the sensitivity of runoff to plausible future changes in PET. The changes in PET were simulated using the Penman-Monteith model and by perturbing each of the driving variables (temperature, solar radiation, humidity, and wind) separately. Surprisingly, the results showed the potential of a more than sevenfold difference in runoff sensitivity per unit change in annual average PET, depending on both the rainfall-runoff model and the climate variable used to perturb PET. These differences were largely due to different ways used to convert PET to AET in the conceptual rainfall-runoff models, with particular dependencies on the daily wet/dry status, as well as the seasonal variations in store levels. By comparing the temporal patterns in simulated AET with eddy-covariance-based observations at two of the study locations, we highlighted some unrealistic behavior in the simulated AET from AWBM. Such process-based evaluations are useful for scrutinizing the representation of physical processes in alternative conceptual rainfall-runoff models, which can be particularly useful for selecting models for projecting runoff under a changing climate.

  11. Rainfall-runoff modeling in the Turkey River using numerical and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Researchers have used numerical models for modeling rainfall-runoff process in the watershed because of non-linear nature of rainfall-runoff relationship, vast data requirement and physical models hardness. The main object of this research was to model the rainfall-runoff relationship at the Turkey River in Mississippi.

  12. Parameter estimation in stochastic rainfall-runoff models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsdottir, Harpa; Madsen, Henrik; Palsson, Olafur Petur


    A parameter estimation method for stochastic rainfall-runoff models is presented. The model considered in the paper is a conceptual stochastic model, formulated in continuous-discrete state space form. The model is small and a fully automatic optimization is, therefore, possible for estimating all...... the parameter values are optimal for simulation or prediction. The data originates from Iceland and the model is designed for Icelandic conditions, including a snow routine for mountainous areas. The model demands only two input data series, precipitation and temperature and one output data series...

  13. An analogue conceptual rainfall-runoff model for educational purposes (United States)

    Herrnegger, Mathew; Riedl, Michael; Schulz, Karsten


    Conceptual rainfall-runoff models, in which runoff processes are modelled with a series of connected linear and non-linear reservoirs, remain widely applied tools in science and practice. Additionally, the concept is appreciated in teaching due to its somewhat simplicity in explaining and exploring hydrological processes of catchments. However, when a series of reservoirs are used, the model system becomes highly parametrized and complex and the traceability of the model results becomes more difficult to explain to an audience not accustomed to numerical modelling. Since normally the simulations are performed with a not visible digital code, the results are also not easily comprehensible. This contribution therefore presents a liquid analogue model, in which a conceptual rainfall-runoff model is reproduced by a physical model. This consists of different acrylic glass containers representing different storage components within a catchment, e.g. soil water or groundwater storage. The containers are equipped and connected with pipes, in which water movement represents different flow processes, e.g. surface runoff, percolation or base flow. Water from a storage container is pumped to the upper part of the model and represents effective rainfall input. The water then flows by gravity through the different pipes and storages. Valves are used for controlling the flows within the analogue model, comparable to the parameterization procedure in numerical models. Additionally, an inexpensive microcontroller-based board and sensors are used to measure storage water levels, with online visualization of the states as time series data, building a bridge between the analogue and digital world. The ability to physically witness the different flows and water levels in the storages makes the analogue model attractive to the audience. Hands-on experiments can be performed with students, in which different scenarios or catchment types can be simulated, not only with the analogue but

  14. Influence of rainfall spatial variability on rainfall-runoff modelling: Benefit of a simulation approach? (United States)

    Emmanuel, I.; Andrieu, H.; Leblois, E.; Janey, N.; Payrastre, O.


    No consensus has yet been reached regarding the influence of rainfall spatial variability on runoff modelling at catchment outlets. To eliminate modelling and measurement errors, in addition to controlling rainfall variability and both the characteristics and hydrological behaviour of catchments, we propose to proceed by simulation. We have developed a simulation chain that combines a stream network model, a rainfall simulator and a distributed hydrological model (with four production functions and a distributed transfer function). Our objective here is to use this simulation chain as a simplified test bed in order to better understand the impact of the spatial variability of rainfall forcing. We applied the chain to contrasted situations involving catchments ranging from a few tens to several hundreds of square km2, thus corresponding to urban and peri-urban catchments for which surface runoff constitutes the dominant process. The results obtained confirm that the proposed simulation approach is helpful to better understand the influence of rainfall spatial variability on the catchment response. We have shown that significant dispersion exists not only between the various simulation scenarios (defined by a rainfall configuration and a catchment configuration), but also within each simulation scenario. These results show that the organisation of rainfall during the study event over the study catchment plays an important role, leading us to examine rainfall variability indexes capable of summarising the influence of rainfall spatial organisation on the catchment response. Thanks to the simulation chain, we have tested the variability indexes of Zoccatelli et al. (2010) and improved them by proposing two other indexes.

  15. [Local sensitivity and its stationarity analysis for urban rainfall runoff modelling]. (United States)

    Lin, Jie; Huang, Jin-Liang; Du, Peng-Fei; Tu, Zhen-Shun; Li, Qing-Sheng


    Sensitivity analysis of urban-runoff simulation is a crucial procedure for parameter identification and uncertainty analysis. Local sensitivity analysis using Morris screening method was carried out for urban rainfall runoff modelling based on Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). The results showed that Area, % Imperv and Dstore-Imperv are the most sensitive parameters for both total runoff volume and peak flow. Concerning total runoff volume, the sensitive indices of Area, % Imperv and Dstore-Imperv were 0.46-1.0, 0.61-1.0, -0.050(-) - 5.9, respectively; while with respect to peak runoff, they were 0.48-0.89, 0.59-0.83, 0(-) -9.6, respectively. In comparison, the most sensitive indices (Morris) for all parameters with regard to total runoff volume and peak flow appeared in the rainfall event with least rainfall; and less sensitive indices happened in the rainfall events with heavier rainfall. Furthermore, there is considerable variability in sensitive indices for each rainfall event. % Zero-Imperv's coefficient variations have the largest values among all parameters for total runoff volume and peak flow, namely 221.24% and 228.10%. On the contrary, the coefficient variations of conductivity among all parameters for both total runoff volume and peak flow are the smallest, namely 0.

  16. Rainfall-Runoff Parameters Uncertainity (United States)

    Heidari, A.; Saghafian, B.; Maknoon, R.


    Karkheh river basin, located in southwest of Iran, drains an area of over 40000 km2 and is considered a flood active basin. A flood forecasting system is under development for the basin, which consists of a rainfall-runoff model, a river routing model, a reservior simulation model, and a real time data gathering and processing module. SCS, Clark synthetic unit hydrograph, and Modclark methods are the main subbasin rainfall-runoff transformation options included in the rainfall-runoff model. Infiltration schemes, such as exponentioal and SCS-CN methods, account for infiltration losses. Simulation of snow melt is based on degree day approach. River flood routing is performed by FLDWAV model based on one-dimensional full dynamic equation. Calibration and validation of the rainfall-runoff model on Karkheh subbasins are ongoing while the river routing model awaits cross section surveys.Real time hydrometeological data are collected by a telemetry network. The telemetry network is equipped with automatic sensors and INMARSAT-C comunication system. A geographic information system (GIS) stores and manages the spatial data while a database holds the hydroclimatological historical and updated time series. Rainfall runoff parameters uncertainty is analyzed by Monte Carlo and GLUE approaches.

  17. Spatial sensitivity analysis of snow cover data in a distributed rainfall-runoff model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Berezowski, T; Nossent, J; Chormański, J; Batelaan, O


    As the availability of spatially distributed data sets for distributed rainfall-runoff modelling is strongly increasing, more attention should be paid to the influence of the quality of the data on the calibration...

  18. Comparison of different synthetic 5-min rainfall time series on the results of rainfall runoff simulations in urban drainage modelling (United States)

    Krämer, Stefan; Rohde, Sophia; Schröder, Kai; Belli, Aslan; Maßmann, Stefanie; Schönfeld, Martin; Henkel, Erik; Fuchs, Lothar


    The design of urban drainage systems with numerical simulation models requires long, continuous rainfall time series with high temporal resolution. However, suitable observed time series are rare. As a result, usual design concepts often use uncertain or unsuitable rainfall data, which renders them uneconomic or unsustainable. An expedient alternative to observed data is the use of long, synthetic rainfall time series as input for the simulation models. Within the project SYNOPSE, several different methods to generate synthetic rainfall data as input for urban drainage modelling are advanced, tested, and compared. Synthetic rainfall time series of three different precipitation model approaches, - one parametric stochastic model (alternating renewal approach), one non-parametric stochastic model (resampling approach), one downscaling approach from a regional climate model-, are provided for three catchments with different sewer system characteristics in different climate regions in Germany: - Hamburg (northern Germany): maritime climate, mean annual rainfall: 770 mm; combined sewer system length: 1.729 km (City center of Hamburg), storm water sewer system length (Hamburg Harburg): 168 km - Brunswick (Lower Saxony, northern Germany): transitional climate from maritime to continental, mean annual rainfall: 618 mm; sewer system length: 278 km, connected impervious area: 379 ha, height difference: 27 m - Friburg in Brisgau (southern Germany): Central European transitional climate, mean annual rainfall: 908 mm; sewer system length: 794 km, connected impervious area: 1 546 ha, height difference 284 m Hydrodynamic models are set up for each catchment to simulate rainfall runoff processes in the sewer systems. Long term event time series are extracted from the - three different synthetic rainfall time series (comprising up to 600 years continuous rainfall) provided for each catchment and - observed gauge rainfall (reference rainfall) according national hydraulic design

  19. Predicting hydrological signatures in ungauged catchments using spatial interpolation, index model, and rainfall-runoff modelling (United States)

    Zhang, Yongqiang; Vaze, Jai; Chiew, Francis H. S.; Teng, Jin; Li, Ming


    Understanding a catchment's behaviours in terms of its underlying hydrological signatures is a fundamental task in surface water hydrology. It can help in water resource management, catchment classification, and prediction of runoff time series. This study investigated three approaches for predicting six hydrological signatures in southeastern Australia. These approaches were (1) spatial interpolation with three weighting schemes, (2) index model that estimates hydrological signatures using catchment characteristics, and (3) classical rainfall-runoff modelling. The six hydrological signatures fell into two categories: (1) long-term aggregated signatures - annual runoff coefficient, mean of log-transformed daily runoff, and zero flow ratio, and (2) signatures obtained from daily flow metrics - concavity index, seasonality ratio of runoff, and standard deviation of log-transformed daily flow. A total of 228 unregulated catchments were selected, with half the catchments randomly selected as gauged (or donors) for model building and the rest considered as ungauged (or receivers) to evaluate performance of the three approaches. The results showed that for two long-term aggregated signatures - the log-transformed daily runoff and runoff coefficient, the index model and rainfall-runoff modelling performed similarly, and were better than the spatial interpolation methods. For the zero flow ratio, the index model was best and the rainfall-runoff modelling performed worst. The other three signatures, derived from daily flow metrics and considered to be salient flow characteristics, were best predicted by the spatial interpolation methods of inverse distance weighting (IDW) and kriging. Comparison of flow duration curves predicted by the three approaches showed that the IDW method was best. The results found here provide guidelines for choosing the most appropriate approach for predicting hydrological behaviours at large scales.

  20. Wildcat5 for Windows, a rainfall-runoff hydrograph model: user manual and documentation (United States)

    R. H. Hawkins; A. Barreto-Munoz


    Wildcat5 for Windows (Wildcat5) is an interactive Windows Excel-based software package designed to assist watershed specialists in analyzing rainfall runoff events to predict peak flow and runoff volumes generated by single-event rainstorms for a variety of watershed soil and vegetation conditions. Model inputs are: (1) rainstorm characteristics, (2) parameters related...

  1. Comparison of Various Optimization Methods for Calibration of Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Models (United States)

    Bhatt, Divya; Jain, Ashu


    Runoff forecasts are needed in many water resources activities such as flood and drought management, irrigation practices, and water distribution systems, etc. Runoff is generally forecasted using rainfall-runoff models by using hydrologic data in the catchment. Computer based hydrologic models have become popular with practicing hydrologists and water resources engineers for performing hydrologic forecasts and for managing water systems. Rainfall-runoff library (RRL) is computer software developed by Cooperative Research Centre for Catchment Hydrology (CRCCH), Australia. The RRL consists of five different conceptual rainfall-runoff models and has been in operation in many water resources applications in Australia. RRL is designed to simulate catchment runoff by using daily rainfall and evapotranspiration data. In this paper, the results from an investigation on the use of different optimization methods for the calibration of various conceptual rainfall-runoff models available in RRL toolkit are presented. Out of the five conceptual models in the RRL toolkit, AWBM (The Australian Water Balance Model) has been employed. Seven different optimization methods are investigated for the calibration of the AWBM model. The optimization methods investigated include uniform random sampling, pattern search, multi start pattern search, Rosenbrock search, Rosenbrock multi-start search, Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE-UA) and Genetic Algorithm (GA). Trial and error procedures were employed to arrive at the best values of various parameters involved in the optimizers for all to develop the AWBM. The results obtained from the best configuration of the AWBM are presented here for all optimization methods. The daily rainfall and runoff data derived from Bird Creek Basin, Oklahoma, USA have been employed to develop all the models included here. A wide range of error statistics have been used to evaluate the performance of all the models developed in this study. It has been found that

  2. The sensitivity of catchment runoff models to rainfall data at different spatial scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. A. Bell


    Full Text Available The sensitivity of catchment runoff models to rainfall is investigated at a variety of spatial scales using data from a dense raingauge network and weather radar. These data form part of the HYREX (HYdrological Radar EXperiment dataset. They encompass records from 49 raingauges over the 135 km2 Brue catchment in south-west England together with 2 and 5 km grid-square radar data. Separate rainfall time-series for the radar and raingauge data are constructed on 2, 5 and 10 km grids, and as catchment average values, at a 15 minute time-step. The sensitivity of the catchment runoff models to these grid scales of input data is evaluated on selected convective and stratiform rainfall events. Each rainfall time-series is used to produce an ensemble of modelled hydrographs in order to investigate this sensitivity. The distributed model is shown to be sensitive to the locations of the raingauges within the catchment and hence to the spatial variability of rainfall over the catchment. Runoff sensitivity is strongest during convective rainfall when a broader spread of modelled hydrographs results, with twice the variability of that arising from stratiform rain. Sensitivity to rainfall data and model resolution is explored and, surprisingly, best performance is obtained using a lower resolution of rainfall data and model. Results from the distributed catchment model, the Simple Grid Model, are compared with those obtained from a lumped model, the PDM. Performance from the distributed model is found to be only marginally better during stratiform rain (R2 of 0.922 compared to 0.911 but significantly better during convective rain (R2 of 0.953 compared to 0.909. The improved performance from the distributed model can, in part, be accredited to the excellence of the dense raingauge network which would not be the norm for operational flood warning systems. In the final part of the paper, the effect of rainfall resolution on the performance of the 2 km distributed

  3. CLASSIC: a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff modelling system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)


    Full Text Available This paper describes the development of a semi-distributed conceptual rainfall–runoff model, originally formulated to simulate impacts of climate and land-use change on flood frequency. The model has component modules for soil moisture balance, drainage response and channel routing and is grid-based to allow direct incorporation of GIS- and Digital Terrain Model (DTM-derived data sets into the initialisation of parameter values. Catchment runoff is derived from the aggregation of components of flow from the drainage module within each grid square and from total routed flow from all grid squares. Calibration is performed sequentially for the three modules using different objective functions for each stage. A key principle of the modelling system is the concept of nested calibration, which ensures that all flows simulated for points within a large catchment are spatially consistent. The modelling system is robust and has been applied successfully at different spatial scales to three large catchments in the UK, including comparison of observed and modelled flood frequency and flow duration curves, simulation of flows for uncalibrated catchments and identification of components of flow within a modelled hydrograph. The role of such a model in integrated catchment studies is outlined.

  4. Estimation of synthetic flood design hydrographs using a distributed rainfall-runoff model coupled with a copula-based single storm rainfall generator

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Candela, A; Brigandì, G; Aronica, G. T


    ... (rainfall duration and intensity) via copulas, which describes and models the correlation between two variables independently of the marginal laws involved, coupled with a distributed rainfall-runoff model, is presented...

  5. Modeling urban storm rainfall runoff from diverse underlying surfaces and application for control design in Beijing. (United States)

    Ouyang, Wei; Guo, Bobo; Hao, Fanghua; Huang, Haobo; Li, Junqi; Gong, Yongwei


    Managing storm rainfall runoff is paramount in semi-arid regions with urban development. In Beijing, pollution prevention in urban storm runoff and storm water utilization has been identified as the primary strategy for urban water management. In this paper, we sampled runoff during storm rainfall events and analyzed the concentration of chemical oxygen demand (COD), total suspended solids (TSS) and total phosphorus (TP) in the runoff. Furthermore, the first flush effect of storm rainfall from diverse underlying surfaces was also analyzed. With the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), the different impervious rates of underlying surfaces during the storm runoff process were expressed. The removal rates of three typical pollutants and their interactions with precipitation and underlying surfaces were identified. From these rates, the scenarios regarding the urban storm runoff pollution loading from different designs of underlying previous rates were assessed with the SWMM. First flush effect analysis showed that the first 20% of the storm runoff should be discarded, which can help in utilizing the storm water resource. The results of this study suggest that the SWMM can express in detail the storm water pollution patterns from diverse underlying surfaces in Beijing, which significantly affected water quality. The scenario analysis demonstrated that impervious rate adjustment has the potential to reduce runoff peak and decrease pollution loading. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Rainfall-runoff modelling of Ajay river catchment using SWAT model (United States)

    Kangsabanik, Subhadip; Murmu, Sneha


    The present study is based on SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) Model which integrates the GIS information with attribute database to estimate the runoff of Ajay River catchment. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a physically based distributed parameter model which has been developed to predict runoff, erosion, sediment and nutrient transport from agricultural watersheds under different management practices. The SWAT Model works in conjunction with Arc GIS. In the present study the catchment area has been delineated using the DEM (Digital Elevation Model) and then divided into 19 sub-basins. For preparation of landuse map the IRS-P6 LISS-III image has been used and the soil map is extracted from HWSD (Harmonized World Soil Database) Raster world soil map. The sub basins are further divided into 223 HRUs which stands for Hydrological Response Unit. Then by using 30 years of daily rainfall data and daily maximum and minimum temperature data SWAT simulation is done for daily, monthly and yearly basis to find out Runoff for corresponding Rainfall. The coefficient of correlation (r) for rainfall in a period and the corresponding runoff is found to be 0.9419.

  7. Combinations of specilaized conceptual and neural network rainfall-runoff models: comparison of performance (United States)

    Kayastha, Nagendra; Solomatine, Dimitri


    A single hydrological model (process-based or data driven) might not equally well describe the characteristic of a complex rainfall-runoff relationship. One possibility here is building several specialized (local) models which can be specifically oriented at a particular process in the same model structure and combining them using weighting scheme the result can be called a multi-model, or a committee model. In this approach first we build the individual specialized models which are mainly calibrated on various regimes corresponding to hydrological sub-processes for example, low flow and high flow, and combining their outputs using the ideas of a fuzzy membership with various parameterisations. This experiment explores the several committee models of specialized hydrological models [1, 2] which are employed for rainfall-runoff model prediction. Comparison of three committee models are demonstrated which constructed from specialized models: (1) processes-based conceptual HBV rainfall-runoff model (CRRM) (2) rainfall-runoff model based on artificial neural networks (ANN) and (3) combination of CRRM and ANN. The weights assigned to each specialized model's output are based on fuzzy membership functions which are different at every time step depending on the current value of flow. Comparison results indicated that committee model CRRM-ANN built from the high flow HBV model and low flow ANN model outperformed other models. Bagmati catchment in Nepal and Leaf catchment in USA are considered as case studies. [1] Fenicia, F., Solomatine, D. P., Savenije, H. H. G. and Matgen, P. Soft combination of local models in a multi-objective framework. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1797-1809, Special Issue "Data-driven approaches, optimization and model integration: hydrological applications", R. Abrahart, L. See, D. Solomatine, and E. Toth (eds.), 2007. [2] Kayastha N., J. Ye, Fenicia, F., Solomatine, D. P. Fuzzy committees of specialized rainfall-runoff models: further enhancements

  8. The ensemble particle filter (EnPF) in rainfall-runoff models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Delft, G.; El Serafy, G.Y.; Heemink, A.W.


    Rainfall-runoff models play a very important role in flood forecasting. However, these models contain large uncertainties caused by errors in both the model itself and the input data. Data assimilation techniques are being used to reduce these uncertainties. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the

  9. computational intelligence for modeling rainfall-runoff process (United States)

    Zemzami, M.; Benaabidate, L.


    The application of neural networks is widely used recently in streamflow forecasting because of it flexible mathematical structure. The relationship between rainfall and streamflow is complex and non-linear, and depends on a large number of parameters that are not available all the time and also are not easy to identify. In such situation, where explicit knowledge of the internal hydrologic system is not available, artificial neural networks can be a good tool to model the non linear hydrologic behavior of watershed without attempting to reach understanding as to the nature of the physical process. In this study we attempt to explore the potential of neural networks in simulating the non-linear relationship between rainfall and streamflow in Anseghmir watershed. And link the two important parameters that generate the dynamic of this complex system. The architecture used in this study is the multilayer feedforward neural network with the Levenberg-Marquardt learning algorithm. The ANN generated results are evaluated using MSE and MAE errors and correlation between observed and simulated values of streamflow. The results show that ANNs are a strong tool to approximate complicated nonlinear functions where there is a poor knowledge about the physical process.

  10. Uncertainty based modeling of rainfall-runoff: Combined differential evolution adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) and K-means clustering (United States)

    Zahmatkesh, Zahra; Karamouz, Mohammad; Nazif, Sara


    Simulation of rainfall-runoff process in urban areas is of great importance considering the consequences and damages of extreme runoff events and floods. The first issue in flood hazard analysis is rainfall simulation. Large scale climate signals have been proved to be effective in rainfall simulation and prediction. In this study, an integrated scheme is developed for rainfall-runoff modeling considering different sources of uncertainty. This scheme includes three main steps of rainfall forecasting, rainfall-runoff simulation and future runoff prediction. In the first step, data driven models are developed and used to forecast rainfall using large scale climate signals as rainfall predictors. Due to high effect of different sources of uncertainty on the output of hydrologic models, in the second step uncertainty associated with input data, model parameters and model structure is incorporated in rainfall-runoff modeling and simulation. Three rainfall-runoff simulation models are developed for consideration of model conceptual (structural) uncertainty in real time runoff forecasting. To analyze the uncertainty of the model structure, streamflows generated by alternative rainfall-runoff models are combined, through developing a weighting method based on K-means clustering. Model parameters and input uncertainty are investigated using an adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. Finally, calibrated rainfall-runoff models are driven using the forecasted rainfall to predict future runoff for the watershed. The proposed scheme is employed in the case study of the Bronx River watershed, New York City. Results of uncertainty analysis of rainfall-runoff modeling reveal that simultaneous estimation of model parameters and input uncertainty significantly changes the probability distribution of the model parameters. It is also observed that by combining the outputs of the hydrological models using the proposed clustering scheme, the accuracy of runoff simulation in the

  11. [Parameter uncertainty analysis for urban rainfall runoff modelling]. (United States)

    Huang, Jin-Liang; Lin, Jie; Du, Peng-Fei


    An urban watershed in Xiamen was selected to perform the parameter uncertainty analysis for urban stormwater runoff modeling in terms of identification and sensitivity analysis based on storm water management model (SWMM) using Monte-Carlo sampling and regionalized sensitivity analysis (RSA) algorithm. Results show that Dstore-Imperv, Dstore-Perv and Curve Number (CN) are the identifiable parameters with larger K-S values in hydrological and hydraulic module, and the rank of K-S values in hydrological and hydraulic module is Dstore-Imperv > CN > Dstore-Perv > N-Perv > conductivity > Con-Mann > N-Imperv. With regards to water quality module, the parameters in exponent washoff model including Coefficient and Exponent and the Max. Buildup parameter of saturation buildup model in three land cover types are the identifiable parameters with the larger K-S values. In comparison, the K-S value of rate constant in three landuse/cover types is smaller than that of Max. Buildup, Coefficient and Exponent.

  12. Initial conditions of urban permeable surfaces in rainfall-runoff models using Horton’s infiltration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davidsen, Steffen; Löwe, Roland; Høegh Ravn, Nanna


    Infiltration is a key process controlling runoff, but varies depending on antecedent conditions. This study provides estimates on initial conditions for urban permeable surfaces via continuous simulation of the infiltration capacity using historical rain data. An analysis of historical rainfall...... records show that accumulated rainfall prior to large rain events does not depend on the return period of the event. Using an infiltration-runoff model we found that for a typical large rain storm, antecedent conditions in general lead to reduced infiltration capacity both for sandy and clayey soils...

  13. Hydrological daily rainfall-runoff simulation with BTOPMC model and comparison with Xin'anjiang model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong-jun Bao


    Full Text Available A grid-based distributed hydrological model, the Block-wise use of TOPMODEL (BTOPMC, which was developed from the original TOPMODEL, was used for hydrological daily rainfall-runoff simulation. In the BTOPMC model, the runoff is explicitly calculated on a cell-by-cell basis, and the Muskingum-Cunge flow concentration method is used. In order to test the model's applicability, the BTOPMC model and the Xin'anjiang model were applied to the simulation of a humid watershed and a semi-humid to semi-arid watershed in China. The model parameters were optimized with the Shuffle Complex Evolution (SCE-UA method. Results show that both models can effectively simulate the daily hydrograph in humid watersheds, but that the BTOPMC model performs poorly in semi-humid to semi-arid watersheds. The excess-infiltration mechanism should be incorporated into the BTOPMC model to broaden the model's applicability.

  14. Modelling urban rainfall-runoff responses using an experimental, two-tiered physical modelling environment (United States)

    Green, Daniel; Pattison, Ian; Yu, Dapeng


    Surface water (pluvial) flooding occurs when rainwater from intense precipitation events is unable to infiltrate into the subsurface or drain via natural or artificial drainage channels. Surface water flooding poses a serious hazard to urban areas across the world, with the UK's perceived risk appearing to have increased in recent years due to surface water flood events seeming more severe and frequent. Surface water flood risk currently accounts for 1/3 of all UK flood risk, with approximately two million people living in urban areas at risk of a 1 in 200-year flood event. Research often focuses upon using numerical modelling techniques to understand the extent, depth and severity of actual or hypothetical flood scenarios. Although much research has been conducted using numerical modelling, field data available for model calibration and validation is limited due to the complexities associated with data collection in surface water flood conditions. Ultimately, the data which numerical models are based upon is often erroneous and inconclusive. Physical models offer a novel, alternative and innovative environment to collect data within, creating a controlled, closed system where independent variables can be altered independently to investigate cause and effect relationships. A physical modelling environment provides a suitable platform to investigate rainfall-runoff processes occurring within an urban catchment. Despite this, physical modelling approaches are seldom used in surface water flooding research. Scaled laboratory experiments using a 9m2, two-tiered 1:100 physical model consisting of: (i) a low-cost rainfall simulator component able to simulate consistent, uniformly distributed (>75% CUC) rainfall events of varying intensity, and; (ii) a fully interchangeable, modular plot surface have been conducted to investigate and quantify the influence of a number of terrestrial and meteorological factors on overland flow and rainfall-runoff patterns within a modelled

  15. Multiobjective training of artificial neural networks for rainfall-runoff modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Vos, N.J.; Rientjes, T.H.M.


    This paper presents results on the application of various optimization algorithms for the training of artificial neural network rainfall-runoff models. Multilayered feed-forward networks for forecasting discharge from two mesoscale catchments in different climatic regions have been developed for

  16. Choice of rainfall inputs for event-based rainfall-runoff modeling in a catchment with multiple rainfall stations using data-driven techniques (United States)

    Chang, Tak Kwin; Talei, Amin; Alaghmand, Sina; Ooi, Melanie Po-Leen


    Input selection for data-driven rainfall-runoff models is an important task as these models find the relationship between rainfall and runoff by direct mapping of inputs to output. In this study, two different input selection methods were used: cross-correlation analysis (CCA), and a combination of mutual information and cross-correlation analyses (MICCA). Selected inputs were used to develop adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) in Sungai Kayu Ara basin, Selangor, Malaysia. The study catchment has 10 rainfall stations and one discharge station located at the outlet of the catchment. A total of 24 rainfall-runoff events (10-min interval) from 1996 to 2004 were selected from which 18 events were used for training and the remaining 6 were reserved for validating (testing) the models. The results of ANFIS models then were compared against the ones obtained by conceptual model HEC-HMS. The CCA and MICCA methods selected the rainfall inputs only from 2 (stations 1 and 5) and 3 (stations 1, 3, and 5) rainfall stations, respectively. ANFIS model developed based on MICCA inputs (ANFIS-MICCA) performed slightly better than the one developed based on CCA inputs (ANFIS-CCA). ANFIS-CCA and ANFIS-MICCA were able to perform comparably to HEC-HMS model where rainfall data of all 10 stations had been used; however, in peak estimation, ANFIS-MICCA was the best model. The sensitivity analysis on HEC-HMS was conducted by recalibrating the model by using the same selected rainfall stations for ANFIS. It was concluded that HEC-HMS model performance deteriorates if the number of rainfall stations reduces. In general, ANFIS was found to be a reliable alternative for HEC-HMS in cases whereby not all rainfall stations are functioning. This study showed that the selected stations have received the highest total rain and rainfall intensity (stations 3 and 5). Moreover, the contributing rainfall stations selected by CCA and MICCA were found to be located near the outlet of

  17. Application of random number generators in genetic algorithms to improve rainfall-runoff modelling (United States)

    Chlumecký, Martin; Buchtele, Josef; Richta, Karel


    The efficient calibration of rainfall-runoff models is a difficult issue, even for experienced hydrologists. Therefore, fast and high-quality model calibration is a valuable improvement. This paper describes a novel methodology and software for the optimisation of a rainfall-runoff modelling using a genetic algorithm (GA) with a newly prepared concept of a random number generator (HRNG), which is the core of the optimisation. The GA estimates model parameters using evolutionary principles, which requires a quality number generator. The new HRNG generates random numbers based on hydrological information and it provides better numbers compared to pure software generators. The GA enhances the model calibration very well and the goal is to optimise the calibration of the model with a minimum of user interaction. This article focuses on improving the internal structure of the GA, which is shielded from the user. The results that we obtained indicate that the HRNG provides a stable trend in the output quality of the model, despite various configurations of the GA. In contrast to previous research, the HRNG speeds up the calibration of the model and offers an improvement of rainfall-runoff modelling.

  18. Multi-criteria validation of artificial neural network rainfall-runoff modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Modarres


    Full Text Available In this study we propose a comprehensive multi-criteria validation test for rainfall-runoff modeling by artificial neural networks. This study applies 17 global statistics and 3 additional non-parametric tests to evaluate the ANNs. The weakness of global statistics for validation of ANN is demonstrated by rainfall-runoff modeling of the Plasjan Basin in the western region of the Zayandehrud watershed, Iran. Although the global statistics showed that the multi layer perceptron with 4 hidden layers (MLP4 is the best ANN for the basin comparing with other MLP networks and empirical regression model, the non-parametric tests illustrate that neither the ANNs nor the regression model are able to reproduce the probability distribution of observed runoff in validation phase. However, the MLP4 network is the best network to reproduce the mean and variance of the observed runoff based on non-parametric tests. The performance of ANNs and empirical model was also demonstrated for low, medium and high flows. Although the MLP4 network gives the best performance among ANNs for low, medium and high flows based on different statistics, the empirical model shows better results. However, none of the models is able to simulate the frequency distribution of low, medium and high flows according to non-parametric tests. This study illustrates that the modelers should select appropriate and relevant evaluation measures from the set of existing metrics based on the particular requirements of each individual applications.

  19. Bayesian estimation of extreme flood quantiles using a rainfall-runoff model and a stochastic daily rainfall generator (United States)

    Costa, Veber; Fernandes, Wilson


    Extreme flood estimation has been a key research topic in hydrological sciences. Reliable estimates of such events are necessary as structures for flood conveyance are continuously evolving in size and complexity and, as a result, their failure-associated hazards become more and more pronounced. Due to this fact, several estimation techniques intended to improve flood frequency analysis and reducing uncertainty in extreme quantile estimation have been addressed in the literature in the last decades. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian framework for the indirect estimation of extreme flood quantiles from rainfall-runoff models. In the proposed approach, an ensemble of long daily rainfall series is simulated with a stochastic generator, which models extreme rainfall amounts with an upper-bounded distribution function, namely, the 4-parameter lognormal model. The rationale behind the generation model is that physical limits for rainfall amounts, and consequently for floods, exist and, by imposing an appropriate upper bound for the probabilistic model, more plausible estimates can be obtained for those rainfall quantiles with very low exceedance probabilities. Daily rainfall time series are converted into streamflows by routing each realization of the synthetic ensemble through a conceptual hydrologic model, the Rio Grande rainfall-runoff model. Calibration of parameters is performed through a nonlinear regression model, by means of the specification of a statistical model for the residuals that is able to accommodate autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity and nonnormality. By combining the outlined steps in a Bayesian structure of analysis, one is able to properly summarize the resulting uncertainty and estimating more accurate credible intervals for a set of flood quantiles of interest. The method for extreme flood indirect estimation was applied to the American river catchment, at the Folsom dam, in the state of California, USA. Results show that most floods

  20. Rainfall runoff modelling of the Upper Ganga and Brahmaputra basins using PERSiST. (United States)

    Futter, M N; Whitehead, P G; Sarkar, S; Rodda, H; Crossman, J


    There are ongoing discussions about the appropriate level of complexity and sources of uncertainty in rainfall runoff models. Simulations for operational hydrology, flood forecasting or nutrient transport all warrant different levels of complexity in the modelling approach. More complex model structures are appropriate for simulations of land-cover dependent nutrient transport while more parsimonious model structures may be adequate for runoff simulation. The appropriate level of complexity is also dependent on data availability. Here, we use PERSiST; a simple, semi-distributed dynamic rainfall-runoff modelling toolkit to simulate flows in the Upper Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers. We present two sets of simulations driven by single time series of daily precipitation and temperature using simple (A) and complex (B) model structures based on uniform and hydrochemically relevant land covers respectively. Models were compared based on ensembles of Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) statistics. Equifinality was observed for parameters but not for model structures. Model performance was better for the more complex (B) structural representations than for parsimonious model structures. The results show that structural uncertainty is more important than parameter uncertainty. The ensembles of BIC statistics suggested that neither structural representation was preferable in a statistical sense. Simulations presented here confirm that relatively simple models with limited data requirements can be used to credibly simulate flows and water balance components needed for nutrient flux modelling in large, data-poor basins.

  1. Real Time Updating in Distributed Urban Rainfall Runoff Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borup, Morten; Madsen, Henrik

    to the hydrodynamic model and is not capable of updating the water levels in pipes and basins explicitly. The statistical data assimilation method the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) was investigated as a tool to update all the state variables in a DUDM. The method was tested in synthetic experiments as well...... systems (and elsewhere) do not measure the quantity they are observing continuously. A new method was developed for utilising this kind of range-limited observations better when using the EnKF. The method works by counteracting the ensemble in spreading into to observable range when the lack...

  2. Bayesian modeling of rainfall-runoff uncertainty to improve probabilistic forecasts (United States)

    Courbariaux, Marie; Parent, Éric; Favre, Anne-Catherine; Perreault, Luc; Gailhard, Joël; Barbillon, Pierre


    Probabilistic forecasts aim at accounting for uncertainty by producing a predictive distribution of the quantity of interest instead of a single best guess estimate. With regard to river flow forecasts, uncertainty is mainly due (a) to the unknown future rainfalls and temperatures, (b) to the possible inadequacy of the deterministic model mimicking the rainfall-runoff transformation. The first source of uncertainty can nowadays be taken into account using ensemble forecasts as inputs to the rainfall-runoff model (RRM). However, the second source of uncertainty due to the possible RRM misrepresentation remains. A simple way to integrate it consists in adjusting the forecast's density as much as necessary to get a prediction consistent with the observations. This step is called "post-processing". Our work focuses on series of river flow forecasts routinely issued at EDF (Electricity of France) and at Hydro-Québec. We aim at reducing the sharpness loss in the post-processing step while guaranteeing point-wise and temporal consistency. To do so, we write a joint model on the RRM errors along the whole trajectory to be predicted. Point-wise and temporal consistency are then obtained relying on a Bayesian approach. As in Krzysztofowicz's works, we first consider the prior behavior of the natural river flow and then update it by taking into account the likelihood of the information conveyed through RRM's outputs. In the spirit of Markov switching models, we establish a classification of time periods remaining on RRM's state variables through a Probit model. Conditioning on such a classification yields a mixture model of RRM errors. We finally compare the results to EDF's present operational forecasting system. Key words : probabilistic forecasts, sharpness, rainfall-runoff, post-processing, river flow, model error.

  3. Case study for the identification and evaluation of rainfall-runoff models (United States)

    Kaleris, Vassilios; Langousis, Andreas


    We investigate the modeling assumptions used in two rainfall-runoff models, namely the model ENNS (Nachtnebel et al., 1993) and the model MIKE SHE (, and study how those assumptions affect the effectiveness and quality of model fitting and runoff simulation. To avoid artificial effects caused by simplifications in the equations used in ENNS for the calculation of the outflow from two-outlet linear reservoirs, a new version of the ENNS code is developed that is fully compatible with the corresponding equations used in MIKE SHE. The two models are applied in a real-word case study, using 19-year long historical time-series of daily precipitation, temperature and runoff from Glafkos river basin. The latter is located near the city of Patras, in Peloponnese, Greece. Both models are manually calibrated using five years of the available data, whereas the remaining part of the data is used for model validation. The effectiveness of the models to simulate the runoff process is evaluated using (a) the relative model bias, (b) the criterion of Nash and Sutcliffe (N-S) and (c) the modified N-S-criterion calculated using the logarithmically or square root transformed observed and simulated flows. While both models describe the base- and inter-flow hydrological processes using the same conceptual model of linear reservoirs, they use different modeling assumptions to describe surface runoff and infiltration through the unsaturated zone. To that extent, the presented comparison sheds light to (a) the effectiveness of each modeling assumption to describe surface runoff and infiltration through the unsaturated zone, (b) the quality of model calibration, and (c) the optimality and robustness of the estimated parameters, common to the two models (thickness of the unsaturated zone, water content, field capacity, wilting point etc.). Differences in the simulated surface runoff, the infiltration and other runoff components, are not caused solely by the different


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camilo A. S. Farias


    Full Text Available The existence of long and reliable streamflow data records is essential to establishing strategies for the operation of water resources systems. In areas where streamflow data records are limited or present missing values, rainfall-runoff models are typically used for reconstruction and/or extension of river flow series. The main objective of this paper is to verify the application of Kohonen Neural Networks (KNN for estimating streamflows in Piancó River. The Piancó River basin is located in the Brazilian semiarid region, an area devoid of hydrometeorological data and characterized by recurrent periods of water scarcity. The KNN are unsupervised neural networks that cluster data into groups according to their similarities. Such models are able to classify data vectors even when there are missing values in some of its components, a very common situation in rainfall-runoff modeling. Twenty two years of rainfall and streamflow monthly data were used in order to calibrate and test the proposed model. Statistical indexes were chose as criteria for evaluating the performance of the KNN model under four different scenarios of input data. The results show that the proposed model was able to provide reliable estimations even when there were missing values in the input data set.

  5. Technical note: Cascade of submerged reservoirs as a rainfall-runoff model (United States)

    Kurnatowski, Jacek


    The rainfall-runoff conceptual model as a cascade of submerged linear reservoirs with particular outflows depending on storages of adjoining reservoirs is developed. The model output contains different exponential functions with roots of Chebyshev polynomials of the first kind as exponents. The model is applied to instantaneous unit hydrograph (IUH) and recession curve problems and compared with the analogous results of the Nash cascade. A case study is performed on a basis of 46 recession periods. Obtained results show the usefulness of the model as an alternative concept to the Nash cascade.

  6. Multi-Site Calibration of Linear Reservoir Based Geomorphologic Rainfall-Runoff Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bahram Saeidifarzad


    Full Text Available Multi-site optimization of two adapted event-based geomorphologic rainfall-runoff models was presented using Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA-II method for the South Fork Eel River watershed, California. The first model was developed based on Unequal Cascade of Reservoirs (UECR and the second model was presented as a modified version of Geomorphological Unit Hydrograph based on Nash’s model (GUHN. Two calibration strategies were considered as semi-lumped and semi-distributed for imposing (or unimposing the geomorphology relations in the models. The results of models were compared with Nash’s model. Obtained results using the observed data of two stations in the multi-site optimization framework showed reasonable efficiency values in both the calibration and the verification steps. The outcomes also showed that semi-distributed calibration of the modified GUHN model slightly outperformed other models in both upstream and downstream stations during calibration. Both calibration strategies for the developed UECR model during the verification phase showed slightly better performance in the downstream station, but in the upstream station, the modified GUHN model in the semi-lumped strategy slightly outperformed the other models. The semi-lumped calibration strategy could lead to logical lag time parameters related to the basin geomorphology and may be more suitable for data-based statistical analyses of the rainfall-runoff process.

  7. The application of an analytical probabilistic model for estimating the rainfall-runoff reductions achieved using a rainwater harvesting system. (United States)

    Kim, Hyoungjun; Han, Mooyoung; Lee, Ju Young


    Rainwater harvesting systems cannot only supplement on-site water needs, but also reduce water runoff and lessen downstream flooding. In this study, an existing analytic model for estimating the runoff in urban areas is modified to provide a more economical and effective model that can be used for describing rainwater harvesting. This model calculates the rainfall-runoff reduction by taking into account the catchment, storage tank, and infiltration facility of a water harvesting system; this calculation is based on the water balance equation, and the cumulative distribution, probability density, and average rainfall-runoff functions. This model was applied to a water harvesting system at the Seoul National University in order to verify its practicality. The derived model was useful for evaluating runoff reduction and for designing the storage tank capacity. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Influence of lag time on event-based rainfall-runoff modeling using the data driven approach (United States)

    Talei, Amin; Chua, Lloyd H. C.


    SummaryThis study investigated the effect of lag time on the performance of data-driven models, specifically the adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), in event-based rainfall-runoff modeling. Rainfall and runoff data for a catchment in Singapore were chosen for this study. For the purpose of this study, lag time was determined from cross-correlation analysis of the rainfall and runoff time series. Rainfall antecedents were the only inputs of the models and direct runoff was the desired output. An ANFIS model with three sub-models defined based on three different ranges of lag times was developed. The performance of the sub-models was compared with previously developed ANFIS models and the physically-based Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). The ANFIS sub-models gave significantly superior results in terms of the RMSE, r2, CE and the prediction of the peak discharge, compared to other ANFIS models where the lag time was not considered. In addition, the ANFIS sub-models provided results that were comparable with results from SWMM. It is thus concluded that the lag time plays an important role in the selection of events for training and testing of data-driven models in event-based rainfall-runoff modeling.

  9. Application of random number generators in genetic algorithms to improve rainfall-runoff modelling

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Chlumecký, M.; Buchtele, Josef; Richta, K.


    Roč. 553, October (2017), s. 350-355 ISSN 0022-1694 Institutional support: RVO:67985874 Keywords : genetic algorithm * optimisation * rainfall-runoff modeling * random generator Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology Impact factor: 3.483, year: 2016

  10. Evaluating the robustness of conceptual rainfall-runoff models under climate variability in northern Tunisia (United States)

    Dakhlaoui, H.; Ruelland, D.; Tramblay, Y.; Bargaoui, Z.


    To evaluate the impact of climate change on water resources at the catchment scale, not only future projections of climate are necessary but also robust rainfall-runoff models that must be fairly reliable under changing climate conditions. The aim of this study was thus to assess the robustness of three conceptual rainfall-runoff models (GR4j, HBV and IHACRES) on five basins in northern Tunisia under long-term climate variability, in the light of available future climate scenarios for this region. The robustness of the models was evaluated using a differential split sample test based on a climate classification of the observation period that simultaneously accounted for precipitation and temperature conditions. The study catchments include the main hydrographical basins in northern Tunisia, which produce most of the surface water resources in the country. A 30-year period (1970-2000) was used to capture a wide range of hydro-climatic conditions. The calibration was based on the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) criterion, while model transferability was evaluated based on the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency criterion and volume error. The three hydrological models were shown to behave similarly under climate variability. The models simulated the runoff pattern better when transferred to wetter and colder conditions than to drier and warmer ones. It was shown that their robustness became unacceptable when climate conditions involved a decrease of more than 25% in annual precipitation and an increase of more than +1.75 °C in annual mean temperatures. The reduction in model robustness may be partly due to the climate dependence of some parameters. When compared to precipitation and temperature projections in the region, the limits of transferability obtained in this study are generally respected for short and middle term. For long term projections under the most pessimistic emission gas scenarios, the limits of transferability are generally not respected, which may hamper the

  11. How would peak rainfall intensity affect runoff predictions using conceptual water balance models?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Yu


    Full Text Available Most hydrological models use continuous daily precipitation and potential evapotranspiration for streamflow estimation. With the projected increase in mean surface temperature, hydrological processes are set to intensify irrespective of the underlying changes to the mean precipitation. The effect of an increase in rainfall intensity on the long-term water balance is, however, not adequately accounted for in the commonly used hydrological models. This study follows from a previous comparative analysis of a non-stationary daily series of stream flow of a forested watershed (River Rimbaud in the French Alps (area = 1.478 km2 (1966–2006. Non-stationarity in the recorded stream flow occurred as a result of a severe wild fire in 1990. Two daily models (AWBM and SimHyd were initially calibrated for each of three distinct phases in relation to the well documented land disturbance. At the daily and monthly time scales, both models performed satisfactorily with the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSE varying from 0.77 to 0.92. When aggregated to the annual time scale, both models underestimated the flow by about 22% with a reduced NSE at about 0.71. Exploratory data analysis was undertaken to relate daily peak hourly rainfall intensity to the discrepancy between the observed and modelled daily runoff amount. Preliminary results show that the effect of peak hourly rainfall intensity on runoff prediction is insignificant, and model performance is unlikely to improve when peak daily precipitation is included. Trend analysis indicated that the large decrease of precipitation when daily precipitation amount exceeded 10–20 mm may have contributed greatly to the decrease in stream flow of this forested watershed.

  12. Calibration of Rainfall-Runoff Model by Referring to Hydrological Separation of Runoff Components using Chemical and Isotopic Characteristics of Discharge (United States)

    Chikamori, H.


    Calibration of Rainfall-Runoff Model by Referring to Hydrological Separation of Runoff Components using Chemical and Isotopic Characteristics of Discharge Hidetaka Chikamori Graduate School of Environmental Science, Okayama University, JAPAN A rainfall-runoff model is generally calibrated by minimizing error in calculated runoff using records of hydrological components, that is, observed rainfall, discharge and observed or estimated evapotranpiration. However, calibration using only hydrological components sometimes produces a model with strange structure that does not reflect physical properties of an objective basin. It is probably due to error in referred hydrological records. In this study, the author calibrated a rainfall runoff model using not only hydrological record but also chemical and isotopic data of discharge so as to obtain a reasonably structured model from multiple viewpoints. Besides, the model structure was improved in order to simulate isotopic characteristics well. It is well known that ratio of surface flow in total flow can be estimated by change in concentration of cation or anion. Relative concentration of 18O, δ18O is well used for separating runoff of retained water in soil as "old water" from total runoff. A Long-and-Short Term Tank Model (LST2 Model) was applied to three Hinoki Cypress catchments in Mie experimental basin located in the middle of Japan. One of these catchments is of well-maintained planted forest, and two are of poor-maintained planted. A model was calibrated by Differential Evolution for each catchment using hydrological data, concentration of K+ and δ18O. In these catchments, Gomi et al (2008) showed that concentration of K+ well expresses ratio of surface runoff to total runoff, and that δ18O subsurface runoff to total runoff. The results show that an original version of LST2 Model cannot simulated delayed subsurface flow ratio estimated by δ18O, although it well simulates surface flow ratio estimated by

  13. Rainfall-runoff simulation in urban hydology - An indoor physical model (United States)

    Isidoro, Jorge; Silveira, Alexandre; da Silva, António; Gonçalves, Flávio; de Deus, Fábio; dos Reis, Simone


    According to the UN the current levels of urbanization are unprecedented and so is the number and size of the world's largest cities. Moreover, in the next four decades, all of the world's population growth is most likely to take place in urban areas. This growth will include a draw in some of the rural population through rural to urban migration. The increase in size of individual concentrations of people (e.g., cities) is a consequence of the urbanization process that has an important role on the rainfall-runoff process. This reality implies more attention to the study of urban flooding, among other natural hazards. This work aims to present a laboratory (indoor) physical model at a 1:100 scale of an urban area under simulated rainfall (pressurized nozzles). The model, a V-shaped rectangular area (2.00m × 4.00m) with the ability to adjust its longitudinal and transversal slopes, allows placing blocks simulating several geometries of buildings. This model was conceived and developed at the Institute of Science and Technology of the Federal University of Alfenas (MG) in Brazil, where it is used for research and teaching activities. Several experiments were completed in order to simulate the rainfall-runoff process over an impervious area with and without buildings, with distinct longitudinal and transversal slopes. Significant differences were found in the shape of the resulting hydrographs. This work will allow assessing the possibility of scaling the results obtained with this indoor model to a larger-scale (1:25 to 1:10) outdoor model which is currently being designed.

  14. Assimilating satellite soil moisture into rainfall-runoff modelling: towards a systematic study (United States)

    Massari, Christian; Tarpanelli, Angelica; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso


    Soil moisture is the main factor for the repartition of the mass and energy fluxes between the land surface and the atmosphere thus playing a fundamental role in the hydrological cycle. Indeed, soil moisture represents the initial condition of rainfall-runoff modelling that determines the flood response of a catchment. Different initial soil moisture conditions can discriminate between catastrophic and minor effects of a given rainfall event. Therefore, improving the estimation of initial soil moisture conditions will reduce uncertainties in early warning flood forecasting models addressing the mitigation of flood hazard. In recent years, satellite soil moisture products have become available with fine spatial-temporal resolution and a good accuracy. Therefore, a number of studies have been published in which the impact of the assimilation of satellite soil moisture data into rainfall-runoff modelling is investigated. Unfortunately, data assimilation involves a series of assumptions and choices that significantly affect the final result. Given a satellite soil moisture observation, a rainfall-runoff model and a data assimilation technique, an improvement or a deterioration of discharge predictions can be obtained depending on the choices made in the data assimilation procedure. Consequently, large discrepancies have been obtained in the studies published so far likely due to the differences in the implementation of the data assimilation technique. On this basis, a comprehensive and robust procedure for the assimilation of satellite soil moisture data into rainfall-runoff modelling is developed here and applied to six subcatchment of the Upper Tiber River Basin for which high-quality hydrometeorological hourly observations are available in the period 1989-2013. The satellite soil moisture product used in this study is obtained from the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) onboard Metop-A satellite and it is available since 2007. The MISDc ("Modello Idrologico Semi

  15. Subgrid Parameterization of the Soil Moisture Storage Capacity for a Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weijian Guo


    Full Text Available Spatial variability plays an important role in nonlinear hydrologic processes. Due to the limitation of computational efficiency and data resolution, subgrid variability is usually assumed to be uniform for most grid-based rainfall-runoff models, which leads to the scale-dependence of model performances. In this paper, the scale effect on the Grid-Xinanjiang model was examined. The bias of the estimation of precipitation, runoff, evapotranspiration and soil moisture at the different grid scales, along with the scale-dependence of the effective parameters, highlights the importance of well representing the subgrid variability. This paper presents a subgrid parameterization method to incorporate the subgrid variability of the soil storage capacity, which is a key variable that controls runoff generation and partitioning in the Grid-Xinanjiang model. In light of the similar spatial pattern and physical basis, the soil storage capacity is correlated with the topographic index, whose spatial distribution can more readily be measured. A beta distribution is introduced to represent the spatial distribution of the soil storage capacity within the grid. The results derived from the Yanduhe Basin show that the proposed subgrid parameterization method can effectively correct the watershed soil storage capacity curve. Compared to the original Grid-Xinanjiang model, the model performances are quite consistent at the different grid scales when the subgrid variability is incorporated. This subgrid parameterization method reduces the recalibration necessity when the Digital Elevation Model (DEM resolution is changed. Moreover, it improves the potential for the application of the distributed model in the ungauged basin.

  16. An Emotional ANN (EANN) approach to modeling rainfall-runoff process (United States)

    Nourani, Vahid


    This paper presents the first hydrological implementation of Emotional Artificial Neural Network (EANN), as a new generation of Artificial Intelligence-based models for daily rainfall-runoff (r-r) modeling of the watersheds. Inspired by neurophysiological form of brain, in addition to conventional weights and bias, an EANN includes simulated emotional parameters aimed at improving the network learning process. EANN trained by a modified version of back-propagation (BP) algorithm was applied to single and multi-step-ahead runoff forecasting of two watersheds with two distinct climatic conditions. Also to evaluate the ability of EANN trained by smaller training data set, three data division strategies with different number of training samples were considered for the training purpose. The overall comparison of the obtained results of the r-r modeling indicates that the EANN could outperform the conventional feed forward neural network (FFNN) model up to 13% and 34% in terms of training and verification efficiency criteria, respectively. The superiority of EANN over classic ANN is due to its ability to recognize and distinguish dry (rainless days) and wet (rainy days) situations using hormonal parameters of the artificial emotional system.

  17. Application of Genetic Algorithm to Runoff Curve Numbers of NRCS Model for Calculating Effective Rainfalls (United States)

    KIm, T. W.; Park, D. H.; Kang, D.; Ahn, J. H.


    There are a number of methods to estimate the effective rainfall, i.e., Φ-index, W-index, NRCS-CN, constant fraction method, constant loss rate method, initial loss-constant loss rate method. The NRCS-CN (Natural Resources Conservation Service-Curve Number) method has been generally applied for estimating effective rainfalls. However, there are no criteria that reflect the geographic characteristics of Korea having more than 70% of mountainous and rice paddy areas, leading to significant errors in runoff calculation. Thus, it is required to estimate the runoff curve number considering Korea land use classification. However, there are practical difficulties to conduct the accurate research and experimentation. In this study, after selecting target areas (urban, agriculture, forest), we performed the runoff analysis to estimate appropriate CN values for the selected basins. To do this, curve numbers for soil type A were estimated using genetic algorithm, and then curve numbers for other soil types (B, C, D) were estimated using CN aligner equation. Comparing the curve numbers provided by the NRCS with those estimated in this study, it was observed that the slightly differences at several basins. Through the above process, this study proposed new curve numbers to reflect observed data of rainfall and runoff. Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant [MPSS-NH-2015-79] through the Disaster and Safety Management Institute funded by Ministry of Public Safety and Security of Korean government.

  18. Bayesian Assessment of the Uncertainties of Estimates of a Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model Parameters (United States)

    Silva, F. E. O. E.; Naghettini, M. D. C.; Fernandes, W.


    This paper evaluated the uncertainties associated with the estimation of the parameters of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, through the use of Bayesian inference techniques by Monte Carlo simulation. The Pará River sub-basin, located in the upper São Francisco river basin, in southeastern Brazil, was selected for developing the studies. In this paper, we used the Rio Grande conceptual hydrologic model (EHR/UFMG, 2001) and the Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation method named DREAM (VRUGT, 2008a). Two probabilistic models for the residues were analyzed: (i) the classic [Normal likelihood - r ≈ N (0, σ²)]; and (ii) a generalized likelihood (SCHOUPS & VRUGT, 2010), in which it is assumed that the differences between observed and simulated flows are correlated, non-stationary, and distributed as a Skew Exponential Power density. The assumptions made for both models were checked to ensure that the estimation of uncertainties in the parameters was not biased. The results showed that the Bayesian approach proved to be adequate to the proposed objectives, enabling and reinforcing the importance of assessing the uncertainties associated with hydrological modeling.

  19. Tracing Temporal Changes of Model Parameters in Rainfall-Runoff Modeling via a Real-Time Data Assimilation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shanshan Meng


    Full Text Available Watershed characteristics such as patterns of land use and land cover (LULC, soil structure and river systems, have substantially changed due to natural and anthropogenic factors. To adapt hydrological models to the changing characteristics of watersheds, one of the feasible strategies is to explicitly estimate the changed parameters. However, few approaches have been dedicated to these non-stationary conditions. In this study, we employ an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF technique with a constrained parameter evolution scheme to trace the parameter changes. This technique is coupled to a rainfall-runoff model, i.e., the Xinanjiang (XAJ model. In addition to a stationary condition, we designed three typical non-stationary conditions, including sudden, gradual and rotational changes with respect to two behavioral parameters of the XAJ. Synthetic experiments demonstrated that the EnKF-based method can trace the three types of parameter changes in real time. This method shows robust performance even for the scenarios of high-level uncertainties within rainfall input, modeling and observations, and it holds an implication for detecting changes in watershed characteristics. Coupling this method with a rainfall-runoff model is useful to adapt the model to non-stationary conditions, thereby improving flood simulations and predictions.

  20. Urban Run-off Volumes Dependency on Rainfall Measurement Method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, L.; Jensen, N. E.; Rasmussen, Michael R.


    Urban run-off is characterized with fast response since the large surface run-off in the catchments responds immediately to variations in the rainfall. Modeling such type of catchments is most often done with the input from very few rain gauges, but the large variation in rainfall over small area...

  1. Modeling Rainfall-Runoff Response to Land Use and Land Cover Change in Rwanda (1990–2016

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fidele Karamage


    Full Text Available Stormwater runoff poses serious environmental problems and public health issues in Rwanda, a tropical country that is increasingly suffering from severe floods, landslides, soil erosion and water pollution. Using the WetSpa Extension model, this study assessed the changes in rainfall runoff depth in Rwanda from 1990 to 2016 in response to precipitation and land use changes. Our results show that Rwanda has experienced a significant conversion of natural forest and grassland to cropland and built-up areas. During the period 1990–2016, 7090.02 km2 (64.5% and 1715.26 km2 (32.1% of forest and grassland covers were lost, respectively, while the cropland and built-up areas increased by 135.3% (8503.75 km2 and 304.3% (355.02 km2, respectively. According to our estimates, the land use change effect resulted in a national mean runoff depth increase of 2.33 mm/year (0.38%. Although precipitation change affected the inter-annual fluctuation of runoff, the long-term trend of runoff was dominated by land use change. The top five districts that experienced the annual runoff depth increase (all >3.8 mm/year are Rubavu, Nyabihu, Ngororero, Gakenke, and Musanze. Their annual runoff depths increased at a rate of >3.8 mm/year during the past 27 years, due to severe deforestation (ranging from 62% to 85% and cropland expansion (ranging from 123% to 293%. These areas require high priority in runoff control using terracing in croplands and rainwater harvesting systems such as dam/reservoirs, percolation tanks, storage tanks, etc. The wet season runoff was three times higher than the dry season runoff in Rwanda; appropriate rainwater management and reservation could provide valuable irrigation water for the dry season or drought years (late rainfall onsets or early rainfall cessations. It was estimated that a reservation of 30.5% (3.99 km3 of the runoff in the wet season could meet the cropland irrigation water gap during the dry season in 2016.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vahid Nourani


    Full Text Available Increasing importance of watershed management during last decades highlighted the need for sufficient data and accurate estimation of rainfall and runoff within watersheds. Therefore, various conceptual models have been developed with parameters based on observed data. Since further investigations depend on these parameters, it is important to accurately estimate them. This study by utilizing various methods, tries to estimate Nash rainfall-runoff model parameters and then evaluate the reliability of parameter estimation methods; moment, least square error, maximum likelihood, maximum entropy and genetic algorithm. Results based on a case study on the data from Ammameh watershed in Central Iran, indicate that the genetic algorithm method, which has been developed based on artificial intelligence, more accurately estimates Nash’s model parameters.

  3. Quantifying rainfall-runoff relationships on the Mieso Hypo Calcic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Morin and Cluff runoff model was calibrated and validated using measured rainfall-runoff data. Appropriate values for final infiltration rate (If), surface storage (SD) and the crusting parameter (ã) were found to be: 10; 2 mm for NT and 5 mm for CT; 0.4 mm-1; respectively. The runoff (R)/rainfall (P) ratio (R/P) gave ...

  4. Green roof rainfall-runoff modelling: is the comparison between conceptual and physically based approaches relevant? (United States)

    Versini, Pierre-Antoine; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel


    Green roofs are commonly considered as efficient tools to mitigate urban runoff as they can store precipitation, and consequently provide retention and detention performances. Designed as a compromise between water holding capacity, weight and hydraulic conductivity, their substrate is usually an artificial media differentiating significantly from a traditional soil. In order to assess green roofs hydrological performances, many models have been developed. Classified into two categories (conceptual and physically based), they are usually applied to reproduce the discharge of a particular monitored green roof considered as homogeneous. Although the resulted simulations could be satisfactory, the question of robustness and consistency of the calibrated parameters is often not addressed. Here, a modeling framework has been developed to assess the efficiency and the robustness of both modelling approaches (conceptual and physically based) in reproducing green roof hydrological behaviour. SWMM and VS2DT models have been used for this purpose. This work also benefits from an experimental setup where several green roofs differentiated by their substrate thickness and vegetation cover are monitored. Based on the data collected for several rainfall events, it has been studied how the calibrated parameters are effectively linked to their physical properties and how they can vary from one green roof configuration to another. Although both models reproduce correctly the observed discharges in most of the cases, their calibrated parameters exhibit a high inconsistency. For a same green roof configuration, these parameters can vary significantly from one rainfall event to another, even if they are supposed to be linked to the green roof characteristics (roughness, residual moisture content for instance). They can also be different from one green roof configuration to another although the implemented substrate is the same. Finally, it appears very difficult to find any

  5. A quasi-three-dimensional model for predicting rainfall-runoff processes in a forested catchment in Southern Finland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Koivusalo


    Full Text Available Runoff generation in a forested catchment (0.18 km2 was simulated using a quasi-three-dimensional rainfall-runoff model. The model was formulated over a finite grid where water movement was assumed to be dominantly vertical in the unsaturated soil zone and horizontal in the saturated soil. The vertical soil moisture distribution at each grid cell was calculated using a conceptual approximation to the one-dimensional Richards equation. The approximation allowed the use of a simple soil surface boundary condition and an efficient solution to the water table elevation over the finite grid. The approximation was coupled with a two-dimensional ground water model to calculate lateral soil water movement between the grid cells and exfiltration over saturated areas, where runoff was produced by the saturation-excess mechanism. Runoff was an input to a channel network, which was modelled as a nonlinear reservoir. The proposed approximation for the vertical soil moisture distribution in unsaturated soil compared well to a numerical solution of the Richards equation during shallow water table conditions, but was less satisfactory during prolonged dry periods. The simulation of daily catchment outflow was successful with the exception of underprediction of extremely high peak flows. The calculated water table depth compared satisfactorily with the measurements. An overall comparison with the earlier results of tracer studies indicated that the modelled contribution of direct rainfall/snowmelt in streamflow was higher than the isotopically traced fraction of event-water in runoff. The seasonal variation in the modelled runoff-contributing areas was similar to that in the event-water-contributing areas from the tracer analysis.

  6. Rainfall-runoff modeling in a flashy tropical watershed using the distributed HL-RDHM model (United States)

    Fares, Ali; Awal, Ripendra; Michaud, Jene; Chu, Pao-Shin; Fares, Samira; Kodama, Kevin; Rosener, Matt


    Many watersheds in Hawai'i are flash flood prone due to their small contributing areas and frequent intense rainfall. Motivated by the possibility of developing an operational flood forecasting system, this study evaluated the performance of the National Weather Service (NWS) model, the Hydrology Laboratory Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM) in simulating the hydrology of the flood-prone Hanalei watershed in Kaua'i, Hawai'i. This rural watershed is very wet and has strong spatial rainfall gradients. Application of HL-RDHM to Hanalei watershed required (i) modifying the Hydrologic Rainfall Analysis Project (HRAP) coordinate system; (ii) generating precipitation grids from rain gauge data, and (iii) generating parameters for Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model (SAC-SMA) and routing parameter grids for the modified HRAP coordinate system. Results were obtained for several spatial resolutions. Hourly basin-average rainfall calculated from one HRAP resolution grid (4 km × 4 km) was too low and inaccurate. More realistic rainfall and more accurate streamflow predictions were obtained with the ½ and ¼ HRAP grids. For a one year period with the best precipitation data, the performance of HL-RDHM was satisfactory even without calibration for basin-averaged and distributed a priori parameter grids. Calibration and validation of HL-RDHM were conducted using four-year data set each. The model reasonably matched the observed peak discharges and time to peak during calibration and validation periods. The performance of model was assessed using the following three statistical measures: Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and Percent bias (PBIAS). Overall, HL-RDHM's performance was ;very good (NSE > 0.75, PBIAS flood forecasting capability of the model was accessed using four accuracy measures (probability of false detection, false alarm ratio, critical success index, and probability of detection) for three return periods 1.005, 1

  7. Evaluation of remote-sensing-based rainfall products through predictive capability in hydrological runoff modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stisen, Simon; Sandholt, Inge


    advantage of this evaluation methodology is the integration of the rainfall model input in time and space when evaluated at the sub-catchment scale. An initial data analysis revealed significant biases in the SRFE products and large variations in rainfall amounts between SRFEs, although the spatial patterns......The emergence of regional and global satellite-based rainfall products with high spatial and temporal resolution has opened up new large-scale hydrological applications in data-sparse or ungauged catchments. Particularly, distributed hydrological models can benefit from the good spatial coverage...... and distributed nature of satellite-based rainfall estimates (SRFE). In this study, five SRFEs with temporal resolution of 24 h and spatial resolution between 8 and 27 km have been evaluated through their predictive capability in a distributed hydrological model of the Senegal River basin in West Africa. The main...

  8. Fuzzy committees of specialized rainfall-runoff models : Further enhancements and tests

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kayastha, N.; Ye, J.; Fenicia, F.; Kuzmin, V.; Solomatine, D.P.


    Often a single hydrological model cannot capture the details of a complex rainfall–runoff relationship, and a possibility here is building specialized models to be responsible for a particular aspect of this relationship and combining them to form a committee model. This study extends earlier work

  9. Rainfall-runoff relation: A physically based model to investigate interactions between rainfall duration, slope angle, soil depth and bedrock topography (United States)

    Lange, Benjamin; Bronstert, Axel


    Hillslopes are one of the fundamental geomorphic unit of catchments and act as the primary interface and filter between rainfall and runoff transmission to streams. Nevertheless, hillslope response to storm rainfall remains poorly understood. Typically, a certain rainfall volume is needed to exceed an intrinsic threshold before subsurface stormflow is released. Thresholds, however, vary locally. In particular, studies showed that the subsurface topography of an impeding layer may act as first order control on runoff mechanisms and herewith subsurface runoff generation. Thus, one of the key questions in hillslope hydrology is how slope angle, depth to bedrock or impeding layer and their topography impact the spatial and temporal evolution of subsurface storm flow. To this end, we conducted small scaled irrigation experiments (1 m2) covering intensities of 40, 50 and 60 mm/h over one hour duration in the Schäfertal catchment (51° 39´N, 11° 03´E) in the Lower Harz Mountains, Germany. During the experiments, we measured volumetric water contents at five depths (0.15, 0.30, 0.45, 0,60, 0,75 m) at intervals of 60 s. These measurements were used to develop a physically-based model to investigate subsurface flow. Here, this model was applied on an artificial hillslope segment (10 x 5 m) with varying slopes and depth to the local impermeable layers. In addition, rainfall duration changed with each simulation. Finally, the impact of the spatial position of a topographical depression in the impermeable layer was analyzed. Assuming vertical water flow to the impeding layer followed by subsequent lateral flow along this boundary, the recorded water content increase owing to irrigation was modelled based on a coupled approach combining both Stokes flow with elements of kinematic wave theory. Bases on this model, gravity drives flow while viscosity counteracts. Since capillarity is neglected, this approach is applicable to a certain soil moisture range between Darc

  10. Hydraulic Geometry, GIS and Remote Sensing, Techniques against Rainfall-Runoff Models for Estimating Flood Magnitude in Ephemeral Fluvial Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael Garcia-Lorenzo


    Full Text Available This paper shows the combined use of remotely sensed data and hydraulic geometry methods as an alternative to rainfall-runoff models. Hydraulic geometric data and boolean images of water sheets obtained from satellite images after storm events were integrated in a Geographical Information System. Channel cross-sections were extracted from a high resolution Digital Terrain Model (DTM and superimposed on the image cover to estimate the peak flow using HEC-RAS. The proposed methodology has been tested in ephemeral channels (ramblas on the coastal zone in south-eastern Spain. These fluvial systems constitute an important natural hazard due to their high discharges and sediment loads. In particular, different areas affected by floods during the period 1997 to 2009 were delimited through HEC-GeoRAs from hydraulic geometry data and Landsat images of these floods (Landsat‑TM5 and Landsat-ETM+7. Such an approach has been validated against rainfall-surface runoff models (SCS Dimensionless Unit Hydrograph, SCSD, Témez gamma HU Tγ and the Modified Rational method, MRM comparing their results with flood hydrographs of the Automatic Hydrologic Information System (AHIS in several ephemeral channels in the Murcia Region. The results obtained from the method providing a better fit were used to calculate different hydraulic geometry parameters, especially in residual flood areas.

  11. Rainfall-runoff modelling of the Okavango River catchment to assess impacts of land use change on runoff and downstream ecosystems (United States)

    Milzow, Christian; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter


    The competition between human water use and ecosystem water use is one of the major challenges for water resources management at the global scale. We analyse the situation for the Okavango River basin of southern Africa. The Okavango River is representative for many large rivers throughout the developing world in that it is ungauged and poorly studied. The Okavango basin - spanning over Angola, Namibia and Botswana - represents a multi-objective problem in an international setting. Economic benefits of agricultural development and conservation of ecosystem services call for opposed actions. A semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model of the Okavango catchment is set up using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model is sufficiently physically based to simulate the impact on runoff of extent of agricultural use, crop types and management practices. Precipitation and temperature inputs are taken from datasets covering large parts of the globe. The methodology can thus easily be applied for other ungauged catchments. For temperature we use the ERA-Interim reanalysis product of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and for precipitation the Famine Early Warning Systems Network data (FEWS-Net). Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) data resulted in poor model performance compared to the FEWS-Net data. Presently, the upstream catchment in Angola is largely pristine and agriculture is basically restricted to dry land subsistence farming. But economic growth in Angola is likely to result in agricultural development and consequent impacts on catchment runoff. Land use scenarios that are simulated include large scale irrigated agriculture with water extractions from the river and the shallow aquifer. Climate change impacts are also studied and compared to land use change impacts. The downstream part of the basin consists of the large Okavango Wetlands, which are a biodiversity hotspot of global importance and, through tourism, an important

  12. rainfall runoff model for cala noff model for calabar metropolis u

    African Journals Online (AJOL)


    commercial arteries. These coastal regions of tropics in which Calabar Metropolis is one of s have the highest average rainfall. However, due to flat terrain and often alluvial soils, drainage is diffic. Large areas of impermeable surfaces and spa vegetation in the urban centres, coupled w inadequate drainage facilities, results ...

  13. Modelling runoff at the plot scale taking into account rainfall partitioning by vegetation: application to stemflow of banana (Musa spp. plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y.-M. Cabidoche


    Full Text Available Rainfall partitioning by vegetation modifies the intensity of rainwater reaching the ground, which affects runoff generation. Incident rainfall is intercepted by the plant canopy and then redistributed into throughfall and stemflow. Rainfall intensities at the soil surface are therefore not spatially uniform, generating local variations of runoff production that are disregarded in runoff models. The aim of this paper was to model runoff at the plot scale, accounting for rainfall partitioning by vegetation in the case of plants concentrating rainwater at the plant foot and promoting stemflow. We developed a lumped modelling approach, including a stemflow function that divided the plot into two compartments: one compartment including stemflow and the related water pathways and one compartment for the rest of the plot. This stemflow function was coupled with a production function and a transfer function to simulate a flood hydrograph using the MHYDAS model. Calibrated parameters were a "stemflow coefficient", which compartmented the plot; the saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks, which controls infiltration and runoff; and the two parameters of the diffusive wave equation. We tested our model on a banana plot of 3000 m2 on permeable Andosol (mean Ks=75 mm h−1 under tropical rainfalls, in Guadeloupe (FWI. Runoff simulations without and with the stemflow function were performed and compared to 18 flood events from 10 to 140 rainfall mm depth. Modelling results showed that the stemflow function improved the calibration of hydrographs according to the error criteria on volume and on peakflow, to the Nash and Sutcliffe coefficient, and to the root mean square error. This was particularly the case for low flows observed during residual rainfall, for which the stemflow function allowed runoff to be simulated for rainfall intensities lower than the Ks measured at the soil surface. This approach also allowed us to take into account the experimental data

  14. Inferring the flood frequency distribution for an ungauged basin using a spatially distributed rainfall-runoff model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Moretti


    Full Text Available The estimation of the peak river flow for ungauged river sections is a topical issue in applied hydrology. Spatially distributed rainfall-runoff models can be a useful tool to this end, since they are potentially able to simulate the river flow at any location of the watershed drainage network. However, it is not fully clear to what extent these models can provide reliable simulations over a wide range of spatial scales. This issue is investigated here by applying a spatially distributed, continuous simulation rainfall-runoff model to infer the flood frequency distribution of the Riarbero River. This is an ungauged mountain creek located in northern Italy, whose drainage area is 17 km2. The hydrological model is first calibrated by using a 1-year record of hourly meteorological data and river flows observed at the outlet of the 1294 km2 wide Secchia River basin, of which the Riarbero is a tributary. The model is then validated by performing a 100-year long simulation of synthetic river flow data, which allowed us to compare the simulated and observed flood frequency distributions at the Secchia River outlet and the internal cross river section of Cavola Bridge, where the basin area is 337 km2. Finally, another simulation of hourly river flows was performed by referring to the outlet of the Riarbero River, therefore allowing us to estimate the related flood frequency distribution. The results were validated by using estimates of peak river flow obtained by applying hydrological similarity principles and a regional method. The results show that the flood flow estimated through the application of the distributed model is consistent with the estimate provided by the regional procedure as well as the behaviors of the river banks. Conversely, the method based on hydrological similarity delivers an estimate that seems to be not as reliable. The analysis highlights interesting perspectives for the application of

  15. Export Mechanisms of Persistent Toxic Substances (PTSs) in Urban Land Uses during Rainfall-Runoff Events: Experimental and Modeling Studies (United States)

    Zheng, Y.; Luo, X.; Lin, Z.


    The urban environment has a variety of Persistent Toxic Substances (PTS), such as Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) and mercury. Soil in pervious lands and dust deposited on impervious surfaces are two major sinks of PTSs in urbanized areas, which could contribute significant nonpoint source loadings of PTSs to adjacent waterbodies during rainfall-runoff events and therefore jeopardize aquatic ecosystems. However, PTSs have been much less understood regarding their export mechanisms in urban land uses, and efforts to model nonpoint source pollution processes of PTSs have been rare. We designed and performed in-lab rainfall-runoff simulation experiments to investigate transport of PAHs and mercury by runoff from urban soils. Organic petrology analysis (OPA) techniques were introduced to analyze the soil and sediment compositions. Our study revealed the limitation of the classic enrichment theory which attributes enrichment of pollutants in eroded sediment solely to the sediment's particle size distribution and adopts simple relationships between enrichment ratio and sediment flux. We found that carbonaceous materials (CMs) in soil are the direct and major sorbents for PAHs and mercury, and highly different in content, mobility and adsorption capacity for the PTSs. Anthropogenic CMs like black carbon components largely control the transport of soil PAHs, while humic substances have a dominant influence on the transport of soil mercury. A model was further developed to estimate the enrichment ratio of PAHs, which innovatively applies the fugacity concept.We also conducted field studies on export of PAHs by runoff from urban roads. A variable time-step model was developed to simulate the continuous cycles of PAH buildup and washoff on urban roads. The dependence of the pollution level on antecedent weather conditions was investigated and embodied in the model. The applicability of this approach and its value to environmental management was demonstrated by a case

  16. Definition and sensitivity of the conceptual MORDOR rainfall-runoff model parameters using different multi-criteria calibration strategies (United States)

    Garavaglia, F.; Seyve, E.; Gottardi, F.; Le Lay, M.; Gailhard, J.; Garçon, R.


    MORDOR is a conceptual hydrological model extensively used in Électricité de France (EDF, French electric utility company) operational applications: (i) hydrological forecasting, (ii) flood risk assessment, (iii) water balance and (iv) climate change studies. MORDOR is a lumped, reservoir, elevation based model with hourly or daily areal rainfall and air temperature as the driving input data. The principal hydrological processes represented are evapotranspiration, direct and indirect runoff, ground water, snow accumulation and melt and routing. The model has been intensively used at EDF for more than 20 years, in particular for modeling French mountainous watersheds. In the matter of parameters calibration we propose and test alternative multi-criteria techniques based on two specific approaches: automatic calibration using single-objective functions and a priori parameter calibration founded on hydrological watershed features. The automatic calibration approach uses single-objective functions, based on Kling-Gupta efficiency, to quantify the good agreement between the simulated and observed runoff focusing on four different runoff samples: (i) time-series sample, (I) annual hydrological regime, (iii) monthly cumulative distribution functions and (iv) recession sequences.The primary purpose of this study is to analyze the definition and sensitivity of MORDOR parameters testing different calibration techniques in order to: (i) simplify the model structure, (ii) increase the calibration-validation performance of the model and (iii) reduce the equifinality problem of calibration process. We propose an alternative calibration strategy that reaches these goals. The analysis is illustrated by calibrating MORDOR model to daily data for 50 watersheds located in French mountainous regions.

  17. The last developments of the airGR R-package, an open source software for rainfall-runoff modelling (United States)

    Thirel, Guillaume; Delaigue, Olivier; Coron, Laurent; Perrin, Charles; Andréassian, Vazken


    Lumped hydrological models are useful and convenient tools for research, engineering and educational purposes. They propose catchment-scale representations of the precipitation-discharge relationship. Thanks to their limited data requirements, they can be easily implemented and run. With such models, it is possible to simulate a number of hydrological key processes over the catchment with limited structural and parametric complexity, typically evapotranspiration, runoff, underground losses, etc. The Hydrology Group at Irstea (Antony) has been developing a suite of rainfall-runoff models over the past 30 years with the main objectives of designing models as efficient as possible in terms of streamflow simulation, applicable to a wide range of catchments and having low data requirements. This resulted in a suite of models running at different time steps (from hourly to annual) applicable for various issues including water balance estimation, forecasting, simulation of impacts and scenario testing. Recently, Irstea has developed an easy-to-use R-package (R Core Team, 2016), called airGR (Coron et al., 2016, 2017), to make these models widely available. It includes: - the water balance annual GR1A model, - the monthly GR2M model, - three versions of the daily model, namely GR4J, GR5J and GR6J, - the hourly GR4H model, - a degree-day snow model CemaNeige. The airGR package has been designed to facilitate the use by non-expert users and allow the addition of evaluation criteria, models or calibration algorithm selected by the end-user. Each model core is coded in FORTRAN to ensure low computational time. The other package functions (i.e. mainly the calibration algorithm and the efficiency criteria) are coded in R. The package is also used for educational purposes. It allows for convenient implementation of model inter-comparisons and large sample hydrology experiments. The airGR package undergoes continuous developments for improving the efficiency, computational time

  18. rainfall runoff model for cala noff model for calabar metropolis u

    African Journals Online (AJOL)


    increasingly more acute. Effective dis water has become very essential. Urba management is no longer based on th collection and disposal of storm water on the application of workable model storm drainage designs. Sound storm water design practices he compatible drainage systems, minimize. Nigerian Journal of Techn.

  19. Stochastic rainfall-runoff equations for quantifying runoff and pollutant connectivity between hillslopes and streams. (United States)

    Sheridan, G. J.; Jones, O. D.; Lane, P. N. J.


    A single-event steady-state rainfall-runoff model (including runoff-runon phenomena) is derived, that for the first time quantifies the effect of the random spatial arrangement of rainfall and soil properties on i) infiltration-excess runoff delivery at a downslope boundary, and ii) the distribution of the "connected length" (the upslope length with a continuous runoff pathway adjacent to the stream boundary). The analytic stochastic runoff connectivity (SRC) model assumes a planar hillslope geometry of independent strips and utilises established asymptotic mathematical representations available from the stochastic theory of queues. The accumulation and loss of runoff down a slope is represented as a first-in first-out (FIFO) GI/G/1 queuing system. Runoff flow (time rate of volume) at a downslope boundary is analogous to the waiting time in the queue in this representation. Probability distribution functions and/or the moments for the asymptotic distribution of runoff flow at a downslope boundary are derived for the case of normally distributed rainfall and log-normally distributed infiltration capacity, and for some other common distributions. The distribution of connected length was able to be represented analytically using a FIFO M/M/1 queuing system, and distribution functions are also derived for this property. Together these distributions characterise the degree of connectivity of the overland flow pathway (and by extension its associated pollutant load) for a given set of rainfall and soil conditions. The model is restricted to conditions where the mean infiltration capacity is greater than the mean rainfall rate, conditions which are often encountered, particularly in temperate forests.

  20. Rainfall-runoff modelling using different estimators of precipitation data in the Carpathian mountain catchments (South Poland) (United States)

    Kasina, Michal; Ziemski, Michal; Niedbala, Jerzy; Malota, Agnieszka


    Precipitation observations are an essential element of flood forecasting systems. Rain gauges, radars, satellite sensors and forecasts from high resolution numerical weather prediction models are a part of precipitation monitoring networks. These networks collect rainfall data that are further provided to hydrological models to produce forecasts. The main goal of this work is to assess the usage of different precipitation data sources in rainfall-runoff modelling with reference to Flash Flood Early Warning System. STUDY AREA Research was carried out in the upper parts of the Sola and Raba river catchments. Both of the rivers begin their course in the southern part of the Western Beskids (Outer Eastern Carpathians; southern Poland). For the purpose of this study, both rivers are taken to comprise the catchments upstream of the gauging stations at Zywiec (Sola) and Stroza (Raba). The upper Sola river catchment encompasses an area of 785 sq. km with an altitude ranging from 342 to 1236 m above sea level, while the Raba river catchment occupies an area of 644 sq. km with an altitude ranging from 300 to 1266 m above sea level. The catchments are underlain mainly by flysch sediments. The average annual amount of precipitation for the Sola River catchment is between 750 and 1300 mm and for the Raba river catchment is in the range of 800-1000 mm. METHODS AND RESULTS This work assesses the sensitivity of a lumped hydrological model DHI's Nedbør-Afrstrømnings-Model (NAM) to different sources of rainfall estimates: rain gauges, radar and satellite as well as predicted precipitation amount from high resolution numerical weather prediction models (e.g. ALADIN). The main steps of validation procedure are: i) comparison of rain gauge data with other precipitation data sources, ii) calibration of the hydrological model (using historical, long time series of rain gauge data treated as "ground truth"), iii) validation using different precipitation data sources as an input, iii

  1. Integration of Spatially Hydrological Modelling on Bentong Catchment, Pahang, Peninsular Malaysia Using Distributed GIS-based Rainfall Runoff Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosli, M.H.


    Full Text Available With the advance of GIS technology, hydrology model can simulated at catchment wide scale. The objective is to integrate National Resource Conservation Service (NRCS Curve Number (CN with kinematic wave and manning’s equation using GIS to develop a simple GIS-based distributed model to simulate rainfall runoff in Bentong catchment. Model was built using Spatial Distributed Direct Hydrograph (SDDH concept and applying the time area (TA approach in presenting the predicted discharge hydrograph. The effective precipitation estimation was first calculated using the NRCS CN method. Then, the core maps that consists of digital elevation model (DEM, soil and land use map in grid. DEM was used to derive slope, flow direction and flow accumulation while soil and land use map used to derive roughness coefficient and CN. The overland velocity and channel velocity estimation derived from combination of kinematic wave theory with Manning’s equation. To capture the time frame, the travel time map was divided into isochrones in order to generate the TA histogram and finally. The creation of SDDH using the TA histogram which will lead to the estimation of travel time for the catchment. Simulated hydrograph was plotted together with the observed discharge for comparison. Six storm events used for model performance evaluation using statistical measure such as Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE, percent bias (PBIAS and coefficient of determination (R2;. SDDH model performed quite well as NSE gave result ranging from 0.55 to 0.68 with mean of 0.6. PBIAS indicate that the model slightly over predicted compared to observed hydrograph with result ranges from -46.71 (the most over predicted to +4.83 (the most under predicted with average of -20.73%. R2; ranges between 0.55 to 0.82 with mean of 0.67. When comparing the time to peak, (tp, min, and peak discharge, (pd, m3/s, results gave NSEtp 0.82, PBIAStp 0.65, R2tp 0.32, NSEpd 0.95, PBIASpd 14.49 and R2pd 0

  2. Development of an flood-inundation model nesting a grid-based distributed rainfall-runoff model for impact assessment of water-related disasters (United States)

    Tanaka, T.; Tachikawa, Y.; Yorozu, K.


    A risk assessment of water-related disaster under a changing climate has been highly concerned recently. To examine a change of the magnitude of inundation disasters is an important issue for a risk assessment of water-related disasters. It takes huge computational cost to conduct many 2D-inundation simulations for a whole basin under various external force scenarios. If inundation simulations are conducted only for a possible inundation area, it will highly reduce the computational time. To achieve this purpose, a flood-inundation model which nests a distributed rainfall-runoff model was developed. First, as a rainfall-runoff model to predict flood discharge, a distributed hydrologic model in 30 second spatial resolution, 1K-DHM ( was developed, which uses digital elevation and flow direction information in HydroSHED developed by the USGS. 1K-DHM routes spatially-distributed rainfall-runoff using kinematic wave approximation from an upper grid to a lower grid along a flow direction map. Second, the flood-inundation model nesting the rainfall-runoff was developed. The framework of the inundation model is as follows. Setting river discharge simulated by 1K-DHM as a boundary condition, the flood-inundation model calculates river discharge and flooded water by the 1D and 2D inertial model which neglects the advective term in a momentum equation proposed by Bates et. al. (J. Hydrol., 387, 33-45, 2010). The inundation model considers a gradient of water stage with lower computational cost than the diffusive wave model. A devised discretization scheme (Bates et. al.: J. Hydrol., 387, 33-45, 2010) enhances the inundation model to capture the relevant mechanisms of flood propagation with very high computational performance and stability. The distributed runoff model and the inundation model use the same topographic data, thus river channel networks in the flood-inundation model with the 3 second resolution falls

  3. Applicability of Doppler weather radar based rainfall data for runoff ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Radar-based hydrological studies in various countries have proven that computation of runoff using radar rainfall data could outperform rain gauge network measurements. There are no reported studies on their utilization for hydrological modelling and/or flood-related studies in Indian river basins. A comparison study ...

  4. A method to employ the spatial organization of catchments into semi-distributed rainfall-runoff models (United States)

    Oppel, Henning; Schumann, Andreas


    A distributed or semi-distributed deterministic hydrological model should consider the hydrologically most relevant catchment characteristics. These are heterogeneously distributed within a watershed but often interrelated and subject to a certain spatial organization which results in archetypes of combined characteristics. In order to reproduce the natural rainfall-runoff response the reduction of variance of catchment properties as well as the incorporation of the spatial organization of the catchment are desirable. In this study the width-function approach is utilized as a basic characteristic to analyse the succession of catchment characteristics. By applying this technique we were able to assess the context of catchment properties like soil or topology along the streamflow length and the network geomorphology, giving indications of the spatial organization of a catchment. Moreover, this information and this technique have been implemented in an algorithm for automated sub-basin ascertainment, which included the definition of zones within the newly defined sub-basins. The objective was to provide sub-basins that were less heterogeneous than common separation schemes. The algorithm was applied to two parameters characterizing the topology and soil of four mid-European watersheds. Resulting partitions indicated a wide range of applicability for the method and the algorithm. Additionally, the intersection of derived zones for different catchment characteristics could give insights into sub-basin similarities. Finally, a HBV96 case study demonstrated the potential benefits of modelling with the new subdivision technique.

  5. Addressing subjective decision-making inherent in GLUE-based multi-criteria rainfall-runoff model calibration (United States)

    Shafii, Mahyar; Tolson, Bryan; Shawn Matott, L.


    GLUE is one of the most commonly used informal methodologies for uncertainty estimation in hydrological modelling. Despite the ease-of-use of GLUE, it involves a number of subjective decisions such as the strategy for identifying the behavioural solutions. This study evaluates the impact of behavioural solution identification strategies in GLUE on the quality of model output uncertainty. Moreover, two new strategies are developed to objectively identify behavioural solutions. The first strategy considers Pareto-based ranking of parameter sets, while the second one is based on ranking the parameter sets based on an aggregated criterion. The proposed strategies, as well as the traditional strategies in the literature, are evaluated with respect to reliability (coverage of observations by the envelope of model outcomes) and sharpness (width of the envelope of model outcomes) in different numerical experiments. These experiments include multi-criteria calibration and uncertainty estimation of three rainfall-runoff models with different number of parameters. To demonstrate the importance of behavioural solution identification strategy more appropriately, GLUE is also compared with two other informal multi-criteria calibration and uncertainty estimation methods (Pareto optimization and DDS-AU). The results show that the model output uncertainty varies with the behavioural solution identification strategy, and furthermore, a robust GLUE implementation would require considering multiple behavioural solution identification strategies and choosing the one that generates the desired balance between sharpness and reliability. The proposed objective strategies prove to be the best options in most of the case studies investigated in this research. Implementing such an approach for a high-dimensional calibration problem enables GLUE to generate robust results in comparison with Pareto optimization and DDS-AU.

  6. A simple rainfall-runoff model for the single and long term hydrological performance of green roofs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Locatelli, Luca; Mark, Ole; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    Green roofs are being widely implemented for storm water control and runoff reduction. There is need for incorporating green roofs into urban drainage models in order to evaluate their impact. These models must have low computational costs and fine time resolution. This paper aims to develop...... a model of green roof hydrological performance. A simple conceptual model for the long term and single event hydrological performance of green roofs, shows to be capable of reproducing observed runoff measurements. The model has surface and subsurface storage components representing the overall retention...... capacity of the green roof. The runoff from the system is described by the non-linear reservoir method and the storage capacity of the green roof is continuously re-established by evapotranspiration. Runoff data from a green roof in Denmark are collected and used for parameter calibration....

  7. Uncertainty analysis in rainfall-runoff modelling : Application of machine learning techniques

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shrestha, D.l.


    This thesis presents powerful machine learning (ML) techniques to build predictive models of uncertainty with application to hydrological models. Two different methods are developed and tested. First one focuses on parameter uncertainty analysis by emulating the results of Monte Carlo simulations of

  8. Uncertainty Analysis in Rainfall-Runoff Modelling: Application of Machine Learning Techniques

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shrestha, D.L.


    This thesis presents powerful machine learning (ML) techniques to build predictive models of uncertainty with application to hydrological models. Two different methods are developed and tested. First one focuses on parameter uncertainty analysis by emulating the results of Monte Carlo simulations of

  9. A state-space representation of the GR4J rainfall-runoff model (United States)

    Santos, Léonard; Thirel, Guillaume; Perrin, Charles


    In hydrology, the majority of conceptual models are available only in discrete form. This means that the formulations of the models are based on discrete equations instead of continuous ordinary differential equations (ODE) (see Clark and Kavetski, 2010). The time-step is often "hardcoded" in the model formulation. This can represent a problem in particular for creating a time step-variable model. Furthermore, the fluxes in the models are treated sequentially. For example, in the simple GR4J model, the precipitations (if any) are first added to the production store. Then, the updated level is used to compute the percolation from the store. The resulting level obtained at the end of the time step is different to the level which would be obtained if the two operations (i.e. addition of precipitation and percolation) were done simultaneously. Mathematically, this corresponds to an approximation of ODE solution which is called "operator splitting". This allows to solve an equation even if finding an exact solution is impossible but the error produced by this approximation is difficult to determine. For this reason, it is not easy to separate the numerical error of the resolution from the conceptual error. It could represent an important issue to better understand model behaviour and to identify possible improvements. The aim of this presentation is to detail a state-space representation of the simple GR4J model. The state-space representation aims to represent GR4J by an ODE system which provides the internal variables of the model at all times. We will present here the choices made to adapt GR4J to the state-space formulation and to numerically solve this system. Modifications of the model's equations were also made to adapt the model to lower time step in case it would be used for a time step-variable application. The results obtained with this state-space representation of GR4J were very similar to those of the original model in terms of performances and hydrographs

  10. Parameter Estimation in Rainfall-Runoff Modelling Using Distributed Versions of Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michala Jakubcová


    Full Text Available The presented paper provides the analysis of selected versions of the particle swarm optimization (PSO algorithm. The tested versions of the PSO were combined with the shuffling mechanism, which splits the model population into complexes and performs distributed PSO optimization. One of them is a new proposed PSO modification, APartW, which enhances the global exploration and local exploitation in the parametric space during the optimization process through the new updating mechanism applied on the PSO inertia weight. The performances of four selected PSO methods were tested on 11 benchmark optimization problems, which were prepared for the special session on single-objective real-parameter optimization CEC 2005. The results confirm that the tested new APartW PSO variant is comparable with other existing distributed PSO versions, AdaptW and LinTimeVarW. The distributed PSO versions were developed for finding the solution of inverse problems related to the estimation of parameters of hydrological model Bilan. The results of the case study, made on the selected set of 30 catchments obtained from MOPEX database, show that tested distributed PSO versions provide suitable estimates of Bilan model parameters and thus can be used for solving related inverse problems during the calibration process of studied water balance hydrological model.

  11. Rainfall-runoff modeling at Jinsha River basin by integrated neural network with discrete wavelet transform (United States)

    Tayyab, Muhammad; Zhou, Jianzhong; Dong, Xiaohua; Ahmad, Ijaz; Sun, Na


    Artificial neural network (ANN) models combined with time series decomposition are widely employed to calculate the river flows; however, the influence of the application of diverse decomposing approaches on assessing correctness is inadequately compared and examined. This study investigates the certainty of monthly streamflow by applying ANNs including feed forward back propagation neural network and radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) models integrated with discrete wavelet transform (DWT), at Jinsha River basin in the upper reaches of Yangtze River of China. The effect of the noise factor of the decomposed time series on the prediction correctness has also been argued in this paper. Data have been analyzed by comparing the simulation outputs of the models with the correlation coefficient (R) root mean square errors, mean absolute errors, mean absolute percentage error and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency. Results show that time series decomposition technique DWT contributes in improving the accuracy of streamflow prediction, as compared to single ANN's. The detailed comparative analysis showed that the RBFNN integrated with DWT has better forecasting capabilities as compared to other developed models. Moreover, for high-precision streamflow prediction, the high-frequency section of the original time series is very crucial, which is understandable in flood season.

  12. Estimation of reservoir inflow in data scarce region by using Sacramento rainfall runoff model - A case study for Sittaung River Basin, Myanmar (United States)

    Myo Lin, Nay; Rutten, Martine


    The Sittaung River is one of four major rivers in Myanmar. This river basin is developing fast and facing problems with flood, sedimentation, river bank erosion and salt intrusion. At present, more than 20 numbers of reservoirs have already been constructed for multiple purposes such as irrigation, domestic water supply, hydro-power generation, and flood control. The rainfall runoff models are required for the operational management of this reservoir system. In this study, the river basin is divided into (64) sub-catchments and the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) models are developed by using satellite rainfall and Geographic Information System (GIS) data. The SAC-SMA model has sixteen calibration parameters, and also uses a unit hydrograph for surface flow routing. The Sobek software package is used for SAC-SMA modelling and simulation of river system. The models are calibrated and tested by using observed discharge and water level data. The statistical results show that the model is applicable to use for data scarce region. Keywords: Sacramento, Sobek, rainfall runoff, reservoir

  13. Integration and calibration of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model in the framework of a decision support system for river basin management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Götzinger


    Full Text Available Water balance models provide significant input to integrated models that are used to simulate river basin processes. However, one of the primary problems involves the coupling and simultaneous calibration of rainfall-runoff and groundwater models. This problem manifests itself through circular arguments - the hydrologic model is modified to calculate highly discretized groundwater recharge rates as input to the groundwater model which provides modeled base flow for the flood-routing module of the rainfall-runoff model. A possibility to overcome this problem using a modified version of the HBV Model is presented in this paper. Regionalisation and optimization methods lead to objective and efficient calibration despite large numbers of parameters. The representation of model parameters by transfer functions of catchment characteristics enables consistent parameter estimation. By establishing such relationships, models are calibrated for the parameters of the transfer functions instead of the model parameters themselves. Simulated annealing, using weighted Nash-Sutcliffe-coefficients of variable temporal aggregation, assists in efficient parameterisations. The simulations are compared to observed discharge and groundwater recharge modeled by the State Institute for Environmental Protection Baden-Württemberg using the model TRAIN-GWN.

  14. WegenerNet 1km-scale sub-daily rainfall data and their application: a hydrological modeling study on the sensitivity of small-catchment runoff to spatial rainfall variability (United States)

    Oh, Sungmin; Hohmann, Clara; Foelsche, Ulrich; Fuchsberger, Jürgen; Rieger, Wolfgang; Kirchengast, Gottfried


    WegenerNet Feldbach region (WEGN), a pioneering experiment for weather and climate observations, has recently completed its first 10-year precipitation measurement cycle. The WEGN has measured precipitation, temperature, humidity, and other parameters since the beginning of 2007, supporting local-level monitoring and modeling studies, over an area of about 20 km x 15 km centered near the City of Feldbach (46.93 ˚ N, 15.90 ˚ E) in the Alpine forelands of southeast Austria. All the 151 stations in the network are now equipped with high-quality Meteoservis sensors as of August 2016, following an equipment with Friedrichs sensors at most stations before, and continue to provide high-resolution (2 km2/5-min) gauge based precipitation measurements for interested users in hydro-meteorological communities. Here we will present overall characteristics of the WEGN, with a focus on sub-daily precipitation measurements, from the data processing (data quality control, gridded data products generation, etc.) to data applications (e.g., ground validation of satellite estimates). The latter includes our recent study on the propagation of uncertainty from rainfall to runoff. The study assesses responses of small-catchment runoff to spatial rainfall variability in the WEGN region over the Raab valley, using a physics-based distributed hydrological model; Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model (WaSiM), developed at ETH Zurich (Schulla, ETH Zurich, 1997). Given that uncertainty due to resolution of rainfall measurements is believed to be a significant source of error in hydrologic modeling especially for convective rainfall that dominates in the region during summer, the high-resolution of WEGN data furnishes a great opportunity to analyze effects of rainfall events on the runoff at different spatial resolutions. Furthermore, the assessment can be conducted not only for the lower Raab catchment (area of about 500 km2) but also for its sub-catchments (areas of about 30-70 km2

  15. Rainfall-runoff modeling of the Chapel Branch Creek Watershed using GIS-based rational and SCS-CN methods (United States)

    Elizabeth N. Mihalik; Norm S. Levine; Devendra M. Amatya


    Chapel Branch Creek (CBC), located within the Town of Santee adjacent to Lake Marion in Orangeburg County, SC, is listed on the SC 2004 303(d) list of impaired waterbodies due to elevated levels of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), chlorophyll-a, and pH. In this study, using a GIS-based approach, two runoff modeling methods, the Rational and SCS-CN methods, have been...

  16. Improving flash flood forecasting through coupling of a distributed hydrologic rainfall-runoff model (HL-RDHM) with a hydraulic model (BreZo) (United States)

    Nguyen, P.; Sorooshian, S.; Hsu, K.; AghaKouchak, A.; Sanders, B. F.; Smith, M. B.; Koren, V.


    Flash floods can be the most devastating events causing heavy life and economic losses. Improving flash flood warning in regions prone to hydrologic extremes is one highest priority of watershed managers. In this study, a distributed flash flood modeling system is presented. This system consists of advantages of a distributed hydrologic model (HL-RDHM) and the appropriate level of physical representation of channel flow through a high-resolution hydraulic model (BreZo). HL-RDHM is employed as a rainfall-runoff generator for runoff flow simulation, while the output from HL-RDHM is then used as input for the BreZo model, which simulates fine resolution flow in the river/channel system. The surface runoff generated from HL-RDHM is zoned to sub-catchment outlets and each outlet is considered as a point source to the channels. Multiple point sources are then simulated within BreZo to produce flash flood simulations in spatial and temporal distribution for the particular river/channel system and/or floodplain. A case study was carried out for ELDO2 catchment in Oklahoma. ArcGIS Terrain Processing tools were used to divide ELDO2 (10m resolution) into sub-catchments with outlets. The surface flow from HL-RDHM was re-gridded to 10m resolution, then zoned to the 57 sub-catchments. The results obtained are very promising not only for better simulating the total discharge at the watershed outlet, but also for capturing the spatial distribution of flooded area in the floodplains. Flooded map of ELDO2 (in meters) during the extreme event starting at 06/21/2000 10:00:00

  17. Interception of rainfall and surface runoff in the Brazilian Cerrado (United States)

    Tarso Oliveira, Paulo; Wendland, Edson; Nearing, Mark; Perea Martins, João


    The Brazilian Cerrado plays a fundamental role in water resources dynamics because it distributes fresh water to the largest basins in Brazil and South America. In recent decades, the native Cerrado vegetation has increasingly been replaced by agricultural crops and pasture. These land cover and land use changes have altered the hydrological processes. Meanwhile, little is known about the components of the water balance in the Brazilian Cerrado, mainly because the experimental field studies in this region are scarce or nonexistent. The objective of this study was to evaluate two hydrological processes under native Cerrado vegetation, the canopy interception (CI) and the surface runoff (R). The Cerrado physiognomy was classified as "cerrado sensu stricto denso" with an absolute density of 15,278 trees ha-1, and a basal area of 11.44 m2 ha-1. We measured the gross rainfall (P) from an automated tipping bucket rain gauge (model TB4) located in a tower with 11 m of height on the Cerrado. Throughfall (TF) was obtained from 15 automated tipping bucket rain gauges (model Davis) spread below the Cerrado vegetation and randomly relocated every month during the wet season. Stemflow (SF) was measured on 12 trees using a plastic hose wrapped around the trees trunks, sealed with neutral silicone sealant, and a bucket to store the water. The canopy interception was computed by the difference between P and the sum of TF and SF. Surface runoff under undisturbed Cerrado was collected in three plots of 100 m2(5 x 20 m) in size and slope steepness of approximately 0.09 m m-1. The experimental study was conducted between January 2012 and November 2013. We found TF of 81.0% of P and SF of 1.6% of P, i.e. the canopy interception was calculated at 17.4% of P. There was a statistically significant correlation (p 0.8. Our results suggest that the rainfall intensity, the characteristics of the trees trunks (crooked and twisted) and stand structure are the main factors that have influenced

  18. Evaluating the effectiveness of management practices on hydrology and water quality at watershed scale with a rainfall-runoff model. (United States)

    Liu, Yaoze; Bralts, Vincent F; Engel, Bernard A


    The adverse influence of urban development on hydrology and water quality can be reduced by applying best management practices (BMPs) and low impact development (LID) practices. This study applied green roof, rain barrel/cistern, bioretention system, porous pavement, permeable patio, grass strip, grassed swale, wetland channel, retention pond, detention basin, and wetland basin, on Crooked Creek watershed. The model was calibrated and validated for annual runoff volume. A framework for simulating BMPs and LID practices at watershed scales was created, and the impacts of BMPs and LID practices on water quantity and water quality were evaluated with the Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment-Low Impact Development 2.1 (L-THIA-LID 2.1) model for 16 scenarios. The various levels and combinations of BMPs/LID practices reduced runoff volume by 0 to 26.47%, Total Nitrogen (TN) by 0.30 to 34.20%, Total Phosphorus (TP) by 0.27 to 47.41%, Total Suspended Solids (TSS) by 0.33 to 53.59%, Lead (Pb) by 0.30 to 60.98%, Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) by 0 to 26.70%, and Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) by 0 to 27.52%. The implementation of grass strips in 25% of the watershed where this practice could be applied was the most cost-efficient scenario, with cost per unit reduction of $1m3/yr for runoff, while cost for reductions of two pollutants of concern was $445 kg/yr for Total Nitrogen (TN) and $4871 kg/yr for Total Phosphorous (TP). The scenario with very high levels of BMP and LID practice adoption (scenario 15) reduced runoff volume and pollutant loads from 26.47% to 60.98%, and provided the greatest reduction in runoff volume and pollutant loads among all scenarios. However, this scenario was not as cost-efficient as most other scenarios. The L-THIA-LID 2.1 model is a valid tool that can be applied to various locations to help identify cost effective BMP/LID practice plans at watershed scales. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Bivariate Rainfall and Runoff Analysis Using Entropy and Copula Theories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lan Zhang


    Full Text Available Multivariate hydrologic frequency analysis has been widely studied using: (1 commonly known joint distributions or copula functions with the assumption of univariate variables being independently identically distributed (I.I.D. random variables; or (2 directly applying the entropy theory-based framework. However, for the I.I.D. univariate random variable assumption, the univariate variable may be considered as independently distributed, but it may not be identically distributed; and secondly, the commonly applied Pearson’s coefficient of correlation (g is not able to capture the nonlinear dependence structure that usually exists. Thus, this study attempts to combine the copula theory with the entropy theory for bivariate rainfall and runoff analysis. The entropy theory is applied to derive the univariate rainfall and runoff distributions. It permits the incorporation of given or known information, codified in the form of constraints and results in a universal solution of univariate probability distributions. The copula theory is applied to determine the joint rainfall-runoff distribution. Application of the copula theory results in: (i the detection of the nonlinear dependence between the correlated random variables-rainfall and runoff, and (ii capturing the tail dependence for risk analysis through joint return period and conditional return period of rainfall and runoff. The methodology is validated using annual daily maximum rainfall and the corresponding daily runoff (discharge data collected from watersheds near Riesel, Texas (small agricultural experimental watersheds and Cuyahoga River watershed, Ohio.

  20. Flood Prediction using RainfallRunoff Spatial Variation: An ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    High intensity rainfall and associated floods have become frequent in most cities and urban areas in recent years, within the lower reaches of the Niger Delta. The magnitude and time variation of rainfall and associated runoff has proved more difficult to predict. This is mainly as a result of the inherent stochastic nature of ...

  1. Regional rainfall-runoff relations for simulation of streamflow for watersheds in Du Page County, Illinois (United States)

    Duncker, James J.; Melching, Charles S.


    Rainfall and streamflow data collected from July 1986 through September 1993 were utilized to calibrate and verify a continuous-simulation rainfall-runoff model for three watersheds (11.8--18.0 square miles in area) in Du Page County. Classification of land cover into three categories of pervious (grassland, forest/wetland, and agricultural land) and one category of impervious subareas was sufficient to accurately simulate the rainfall-runoff relations for the three watersheds. Regional parameter sets were obtained by calibrating jointly all parameters except fraction of ground-water inflow that goes to inactive ground water (DEEPFR), interflow recession constant (IRC), and infiltration (INFILT) for runoff from all three watersheds. DEEPFR and IRC varied among the watersheds because of physical differences among the watersheds. Two values of INFILT were obtained: one representing the rainfall-runoff process on the silty and clayey soils on the uplands and lake plains that characterize Sawmill Creek, St. Joseph Creek, and eastern Du Page County; and one representing the rainfall-runoff process on the silty soils on uplands that characterize Kress Creek and parts of western Du Page County. Regional rainfall-runoff relations, defined through joint calibration of the rainfall-runoff model and verified for independent periods, presented in this report, allow estimation of runoff for watersheds in Du Page County with an error in the total water balance less than 4.0 percent; an average absolute error in the annual-flow estimates of 17.1 percent with the error rarely exceeding 25 percent for annual flows; and correlation coefficients and coefficients of model-fit efficiency for monthly flows of at least 87 and 76 percent, respectively. Close reproduction of the runoff-volume duration curves was obtained. A frequency analysis of storm-runoff volume indicates a tendency of the model to undersimulate large storms, which may result from underestimation of the amount of

  2. Rainfall, runoff and sediment transport in a Mediterranean mountainous catchment. (United States)

    Tuset, J; Vericat, D; Batalla, R J


    The relation between rainfall, runoff, erosion and sediment transport is highly variable in Mediterranean catchments. Their relation can be modified by land use changes and climate oscillations that, ultimately, will control water and sediment yields. This paper analyses rainfall, runoff and sediment transport relations in a meso-scale Mediterranean mountain catchment, the Ribera Salada (NE Iberian Peninsula). A total of 73 floods recorded between November 2005 and November 2008 at the Inglabaga Sediment Transport Station (114.5 km(2)) have been analysed. Suspended sediment transport and flow discharge were measured continuously. Rainfall data was obtained by means of direct rain gauges and daily rainfall reconstructions from radar information. Results indicate that the annual sediment yield (2.3 t km(-1) y(-1) on average) and the flood-based runoff coefficients (4.1% on average) are low. The Ribera Salada presents a low geomorphological and hydrological activity compared with other Mediterranean mountain catchments. Pearson correlations between rainfall, runoff and sediment transport variables were obtained. The hydrological response of the catchment is controlled by the base flows. The magnitude of suspended sediment concentrations is largely correlated with flood magnitude, while sediment load is correlated with the amount of direct runoff. Multivariate analysis shows that total suspended load can be predicted by integrating rainfall and runoff variables. The total direct runoff is the variable with more weight in the equation. Finally, three main hydro-sedimentary phases within the hydrological year are defined in this catchment: (a) Winter, where the catchment produces only water and very little sediment; (b) Spring, where the majority of water and sediment is produced; and (c) Summer-Autumn, when little runoff is produced but significant amount of sediments is exported out of the catchment. Results show as land use and climate change may have an important

  3. Assessing the impact of climate change on flood types in the Austrian and French Alps using the stochastic weather generator TripleM and rainfall-runoff modeling (United States)

    Breinl, Korbinian; Turkington, Thea


    We developed a new methodology for classifying flood types, which appears to be particularly suitable for climate change impact studies. Climate change is not only expected to change the magnitude and frequency of Alpine floods but also the types of floods. The distribution of existing flood types may change and new flood types may develop. A shift away from solely focusing on the magnitude and frequency of floods in flood hazard assessment and disaster risk management towards the causal types of floods is required as the types and therefore also timing and characteristics of floods will have implications on both the local social and ecological systems. The flood types are classified using k-means clustering of temperature and precipitation indicators, capturing differences in rainfall amounts, antecedent rainfall, snow-cover, and the day of the year. In a first step, we used the open-source multi-site weather generator TripleM coupled with the fast conceptual rainfall-runoff model HBV to extrapolate the observed discharge time series and generate a large inventory of different types of observed flood events and flood types. The weather generator was then parameterized based on projections of rainfall and temperature to simulate future flood types and events. We selected four climate projections (mild dry, mild wet, warm dry and warm wet conditions) from a set of 15, which originated from the EURO-CORDEX dataset. We worked in two catchments in the Austrian and French Alps that have been affected by floods in the past: the medium-sized Salzach catchment in Austria, which is dominated by rainfall driven flooding during the summer and autumn period, and the small Ubaye catchment in the Southern French Alps, which is dominated by rain-on-snow floods in the spring period. The analysis of the simulated future flood types shows clear changes in the distribution and characteristics of flood types in both study areas under the different climate projections examined.

  4. Regional rainfall-runoff relations for simulation of streamflow for watersheds in Lake County, Illinois (United States)

    Duncker, J.J.; Vail, T.J.; Melching, C.S.


    Rainfall and streamflow data collected in Lake County, Ill., from March 1990 through September 1993 were used to (1) calibrate a rainfall-runoff model for an area encompassing three watersheds (individual areas of 17.2, 35.7, and 37.0 mi(2) (square miles) and (2) verify the regional model parameter set obtained from the calibration by applying the parameter set to rainfall-runoff models for an additional small (6.3 mi(2)) watershed and a large (59.6 mi (2)) watershed. In addition, rainfall and streamflow data collected from April 1991 through September 1993 were used to calibrate the rainfall-runoff model for three single land-use watersheds (38.2-305 acres), called hydrologic response units (HRU's). Significant differences were found between the best parameters used in the HRU models and in the larger watershed models. The main channels in the HRU's are intermittent streams; thus, the parameters in the HRU models were selected such that a fluctuating water table could be simulated; runoff from the larger watersheds is not as sensitive to the effects of a fluctuating water table. Classification of land cover into two pervious subareas (forest and grass) and one impervious subarea (including parking lots, streets, and rooftops, among others) was sufficient to simulate the rainfall-runoff relations for all watersheds accurately. The model parameters presented in this report, which were refined through regional calibration and verified for watersheds not considered in the calibration, allow simulation of runoff in watersheds in Lake County, Ill., with approximately 93-percent accuracy in the total water balance, an average absolute error in the annual- flow estimates of 10.9 percent (and an error rarely exceeding 25 percent for annual flow), and monthly water balances with correlation coefficients of 93 percent and coefficients of model-fit efficiency of 86 percent. The models closely reproduced the partial-duration series of runoff and storm-runoff frequencies for

  5. Estimation of storm runoff loads based on rainfall-related variables ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The comparative study indicated that, event loads are better estimated as power functions of storm-related independent variables. On the notion that rainfall data are more readily available, easy and less expensive to collect than runoff data, the calibrated model was verified using rainfall volume as independent variable.

  6. Evaluation of Surface Runoff Generation Processes Using a Rainfall Simulator: A Small Scale Laboratory Experiment (United States)

    Danáčová, Michaela; Valent, Peter; Výleta, Roman


    Nowadays, rainfall simulators are being used by many researchers in field or laboratory experiments. The main objective of most of these experiments is to better understand the underlying runoff generation processes, and to use the results in the process of calibration and validation of hydrological models. Many research groups have assembled their own rainfall simulators, which comply with their understanding of rainfall processes, and the requirements of their experiments. Most often, the existing rainfall simulators differ mainly in the size of the irrigated area, and the way they generate rain drops. They can be characterized by the accuracy, with which they produce a rainfall of a given intensity, the size of the irrigated area, and the rain drop generating mechanism. Rainfall simulation experiments can provide valuable information about the genesis of surface runoff, infiltration of water into soil and rainfall erodibility. Apart from the impact of physical properties of soil, its moisture and compaction on the generation of surface runoff and the amount of eroded particles, some studies also investigate the impact of vegetation cover of the whole area of interest. In this study, the rainfall simulator was used to simulate the impact of the slope gradient of the irrigated area on the amount of generated runoff and sediment yield. In order to eliminate the impact of external factors and to improve the reproducibility of the initial conditions, the experiments were conducted in laboratory conditions. The laboratory experiments were carried out using a commercial rainfall simulator, which was connected to an external peristaltic pump. The pump maintained a constant and adjustable inflow of water, which enabled to overcome the maximum volume of simulated precipitation of 2.3 l, given by the construction of the rainfall simulator, while maintaining constant characteristics of the simulated precipitation. In this study a 12-minute rainfall with a constant intensity

  7. Toxicity of parking lot runoff after application of simulated rainfall. (United States)

    Greenstein, D; Tiefenthaler, L; Bay, S


    Stormwater runoff is an important source of toxic substances to the marine environment, but the effects of antecedent dry period, rainfall intensity, and duration on the toxicity of runoff are not well understood. In this study, simulated rainfall was applied to parking lots to examine the toxicity of runoff while controlling for antecedent period, intensity, and duration of rainfall. Parking areas were divided into high and low use and maintained and unmaintained treatments. The parking stalls were cleaned by pressure washing at time zero. Simulated rainfall was then applied to subplots of the parking lots so that antecedent periods of 1, 2, and 3 months were achieved, and all of the runoff was collected for analysis. On a separate parking lot, rainfall was applied at a variety of intensities and durations after a 3-month antecedent period. Runoff samples were tested for toxicity using the purple sea urchin fertilization test. Every runoff sample tested was found to be toxic. Mean toxicity for the sea urchin fertilization test ranged from 2.0 to 12.1 acute toxic units. The toxicity increased rapidly during the first month but then decreased approximately to precleaning levels and remained there. No difference in toxicity was found between the different levels of use or maintenance treatments. The intensity and duration of rainfall were inversely related to degree of toxicity. For all intensities tested, toxicity was always greatest in the first sampling time interval. Dissolved zinc was most likely the primary cause of toxicity based on toxicant characterization of selected runoff samples.

  8. Use of distributed snow cover information to update snow storages of a lumped rainfall-runoff model operationally (United States)

    Lisniak, D.; Meissner, D.; Klein, B.; Pinzinger, R.


    The German Federal Institute of Hydrology (BfG) offers navigational water-level forecasting services on the Federal Waterways, like the rivers Rhine and Danube. In cooperation with the Federal States this mandate also includes the forecasting of flood events. For the River Rhine, the most frequented inland waterway in Central Europe, the BfG employs a hydrological model (HBV) coupled to a hydraulic model (SOBEK) by the FEWS-framework to perform daily forecasts of water-levels operationally. Sensitivity studies have shown that the state of soil water storage in the hydrological model is a major factor of uncertainty when performing short- to medium-range forecasts some days ahead. Taking into account the various additional sources of uncertainty associated with hydrological modeling, including measurement uncertainties, it is essential to estimate an optimal initial state of the soil water storage before propagating it in time, forced by meteorological forecasts, and transforming it into discharge. We show, that using the Ensemble Kalman Filter these initial states can be updated straightforward under certain hydrologic conditions. However, this approach is not sufficient if the runoff is mainly generated by snow melt. Since the snow cover evolution is modeled rather poorly by the HBV-model in our operational setting, flood events caused by snow melt are consistently underestimated by the HBV-model, which has long term effects in basins characterized by a nival runoff regime. Thus, it appears beneficial to update the snow storage of the HBV-model with information derived from regionalized snow cover observations. We present a method to incorporate spatially distributed snow cover observations into the lumped HBV-model. We show the plausibility of this approach and asses the benefits of a coupled snow cover and soil water storage updating, which combine a direct insertion with an Ensemble Kalman Filter. The Ensemble Kalman Filter used here takes into account the

  9. Sensitivity Analysis and Calibration of a Rainfall-Runoff Model with the Combined Use of EPA-SWMM and Genetic Algorithm (United States)

    Del Giudice, Giuseppe; Padulano, Roberta


    An integrated Visual Basic Application interface is described that allows for sensitivity analysis, calibration and routing of hydraulichydrological models. The routine consists in the combination of three freeware tools performing hydrological modelling, hydraulic modelling and calibration. With such an approach, calibration is made possible even if information about sewers geometrical features is incomplete. Model parameters involve storage coefficient, time of concentration, runoff coefficient, initial abstraction and Manning coefficient; literature formulas are considered and manipulated to obtain novel expressions and variation ranges. A sensitivity analysis with a local method is performed to obtain information about collinearity among parameters and a ranking of influence. The least important parameters are given a fixed value, and for the remaining ones calibration is performed by means of a genetic algorithm implemented in GANetXL. Single-event calibration is performed with a selection of six rainfall events, which are chosen so to avoid non-uniform rainfall distribution; results are then successfully validated with a sequence of four events.

  10. Assessing groundwater recharge in an Andean closed basin using isotopic characterization and a rainfall-runoff model: Salar del Huasco basin, Chile (United States)

    Uribe, Javier; Muñoz, José F.; Gironás, Jorge; Oyarzún, Ricardo; Aguirre, Evelyn; Aravena, Ramón


    Closed basins are catchments whose drainage networks converge to lakes, salt flats or alluvial plains. Salt flats in the closed basins in arid northern Chile are extremely important ecological niches. The Salar del Huasco, one of these salt flats located in the high plateau (Altiplano), is a Ramsar site located in a national park and is composed of a wetland ecosystem rich in biodiversity. The proper management of the groundwater, which is essential for the wetland function, requires accurate estimates of recharge in the Salar del Huasco basin. This study quantifies the spatio-temporal distribution of the recharge, through combined use of isotopic characterization of the different components of the water cycle and a rainfall-runoff model. The use of both methodologies aids the understanding of hydrological behavior of the basin and enabled estimation of a long-term average recharge of 22 mm/yr (i.e., 15 % of the annual rainfall). Recharge has a high spatial variability, controlled by the geological and hydrometeorological characteristics of the basin, and a high interannual variability, with values ranging from 18 to 26 mm/yr. The isotopic approach allowed not only the definition of the conceptual model used in the hydrological model, but also eliminated the possibility of a hydrogeological connection between the aquifer of the Salar del Huasco basin and the aquifer that feeds the springs of the nearby town of Pica. This potential connection has been an issue of great interest to agriculture and tourism activities in the region.

  11. Estimation of extreme floods of the River Meuse using a stochastic weather generator and a rainfall-runoff model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leander, R.; Buishand, A.; Aalders, P.; Wit, de M.


    A stochastic weather generator has been developed to simulate long daily sequences of areal rainfall and station temperature for the Belgian and French sub-basins of the River Meuse. The weather generator is based on the principle of nearest-neighbour resampling. In this method rainfall and

  12. Data-driven input variable selection for rainfall-runoff modeling using binary-coded particle swarm optimization and Extreme Learning Machines (United States)

    Taormina, Riccardo; Chau, Kwok-Wing


    Selecting an adequate set of inputs is a critical step for successful data-driven streamflow prediction. In this study, we present a novel approach for Input Variable Selection (IVS) that employs Binary-coded discrete Fully Informed Particle Swarm optimization (BFIPS) and Extreme Learning Machines (ELM) to develop fast and accurate IVS algorithms. A scheme is employed to encode the subset of selected inputs and ELM specifications into the binary particles, which are evolved using single objective and multi-objective BFIPS optimization (MBFIPS). The performances of these ELM-based methods are assessed using the evaluation criteria and the datasets included in the comprehensive IVS evaluation framework proposed by Galelli et al. (2014). From a comparison with 4 major IVS techniques used in their original study it emerges that the proposed methods compare very well in terms of selection accuracy. The best performers were found to be (1) a MBFIPS-ELM algorithm based on the concurrent minimization of an error function and the number of selected inputs, and (2) a BFIPS-ELM algorithm based on the minimization of a variant of the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). The first technique is arguably the most accurate overall, and is able to reach an almost perfect specification of the optimal input subset for a partially synthetic rainfall-runoff experiment devised for the Kentucky River basin. In addition, MBFIPS-ELM allows for the determination of the relative importance of the selected inputs. On the other hand, the BFIPS-ELM is found to consistently reach high accuracy scores while being considerably faster. By extrapolating the results obtained on the IVS test-bed, it can be concluded that the proposed techniques are particularly suited for rainfall-runoff modeling applications characterized by high nonlinearity in the catchment dynamics.

  13. Applicability of Doppler weather radar based rainfall data for runoff ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Revista Mexicana de Ciencias Geológicas 24(2): 185–196. Jeremy G 2011 Peak flow and runoff volume estimation using historical weather radar maps. Proc. AECOM. Manitoba, Canada. Kathol J, Werner H and Trooien T 2003 Predicting runoff for frequency based storms using a precipitation- runoff model. Proceedings of ...

  14. Using isotopes to constrain water flux and age estimates in snow-influenced catchments using the STARR (Spatially distributed Tracer-Aided Rainfall-Runoff) model (United States)

    Ala-aho, Pertti; Tetzlaff, Doerthe; McNamara, James P.; Laudon, Hjalmar; Soulsby, Chris


    Tracer-aided hydrological models are increasingly used to reveal fundamentals of runoff generation processes and water travel times in catchments. Modelling studies integrating stable water isotopes as tracers are mostly based in temperate and warm climates, leaving catchments with strong snow influences underrepresented in the literature. Such catchments are challenging, as the isotopic tracer signals in water entering the catchments as snowmelt are typically distorted from incoming precipitation due to fractionation processes in seasonal snowpack. We used the Spatially distributed Tracer-Aided Rainfall-Runoff (STARR) model to simulate fluxes, storage, and mixing of water and tracers, as well as estimating water ages in three long-term experimental catchments with varying degrees of snow influence and contrasting landscape characteristics. In the context of northern catchments the sites have exceptionally long and rich data sets of hydrometric data and - most importantly - stable water isotopes for both rain and snow conditions. To adapt the STARR model for sites with strong snow influence, we used a novel parsimonious calculation scheme that takes into account the isotopic fractionation through snow sublimation and snowmelt. The modified STARR setup simulated the streamflows, isotope ratios, and snow pack dynamics quite well in all three catchments. From this, our simulations indicated contrasting median water ages and water age distributions between catchments brought about mainly by differences in topography and soil characteristics. However, the variable degree of snow influence in catchments also had a major influence on the stream hydrograph, storage dynamics, and water age distributions, which was captured by the model. Our study suggested that snow sublimation fractionation processes can be important to include in tracer-aided modelling for catchments with seasonal snowpack, while the influence of fractionation during snowmelt could not be unequivocally

  15. The Effects Of Urban Landscape Patterns On Rainfall-Runoff Processes At Small Scale (United States)

    Chen, L.


    Many studies have indicated that urban landscape change may alter rainfall-runoff processes. However, how urban landscape pattern affect this process is little addressed. In this study, the hydrological effects of landscape pattern on rainfall-runoff processes at small-scale was explored. Twelve residential blocks with independent drainage systems in Beijing were selected as case study areas. Impervious metrics of these blocks, i.e., total impervious area (TIA) and directly connected impervious area (DCIA), were identified. A drainage index describing catchment general drainage load and the overland flow distance, Ad, was estimated and used as one of the landscape spatial metrics. Three scenarios were designed to test the potential influence of impervious surface pattern on runoff processes. Runoff variables including total and peak runoff depth (Qt and Qp) were simulated under different rainfall conditions by Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). The relationship between landscape patterns and runoff variables were analyzed, and further among the three scenarios. The results demonstrated that, in small urban blocks, spatial patterns have inherent influences on rainfall-runoff processes. Specifically, (1) Imperviousness acts as effective indicators in predicting both Qt and Qp. As rainfall intensity increases, the major affecting factor changes from DCIA to TIA for both Qt and Qp; (2) Increasing the size of drainage area dominated by each drainage inlet will benefit the block peak flow mitigation; (3) Different spatial concentrations of impervious surfaces have inherent influences on Qp, when impervious surfaces located away from the outlet can reduce the peak flow discharge. These findings may provide insights into the role of urban landscape patterns in driving rainfall-runoff responses in urbanization, which is essential for urban planning and stormwater management.

  16. A First Approach to Global Runoff Simulation using Satellite Rainfall Estimation (United States)

    Hong, Yang; Adler, Robert F.; Hossain, Faisal; Curtis, Scott; Huffman, George J.


    Many hydrological models have been introduced in the hydrological literature to predict runoff but few of these have become common planning or decision-making tools, either because the data requirements are substantial or because the modeling processes are too complicated for operational application. On the other hand, progress in regional or global rainfall-runoff simulation has been constrained by the difficulty of measuring spatiotemporal variability of the primary causative factor, i.e. rainfall fluxes, continuously over space and time. Building on progress in remote sensing technology, researchers have improved the accuracy, coverage, and resolution of rainfall estimates by combining imagery from infrared, passive microwave, and space-borne radar sensors. Motivated by the recent increasing availability of global remote sensing data for estimating precipitation and describing land surface characteristics, this note reports a ballpark assessment of quasi-global runoff computed by incorporating satellite rainfall data and other remote sensing products in a relatively simple rainfall-runoff simulation approach: the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) runoff Curve Number (CN) method. Using an Antecedent Precipitation Index (API) as a proxy of antecedent moisture conditions, this note estimates time-varying NRCS-CN values determined by the 5-day normalized API. Driven by multi-year (1998-2006) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis, quasi-global runoff was retrospectively simulated with the NRCS-CN method and compared to Global Runoff Data Centre data at global and catchment scales. Results demonstrated the potential for using this simple method when diagnosing runoff values from satellite rainfall for the globe and for medium to large river basins. This work was done with the simple NRCS-CN method as a first-cut approach to understanding the challenges that lie ahead in advancing the satellite-based inference of

  17. Effects of Rainfall Intensity and Slope Gradient on Runoff and Soil Moisture Content on Different Growing Stages of Spring Maize

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenbin Mu


    Full Text Available The rainfall-runoff process (RRP is an important part of hydrologic process. There is an effective measure to study RRP through artificial rainfall simulation. This paper describes a study on three growing stages (jointing stage, tasseling stage, and mature stage of spring maize in which simulated rainfall events were used to study the effects of various factors (rainfall intensity and slope gradient on the RRP. The RRP was tested with three different rainfall intensities (0.67, 1.00, and 1.67 mm/min and subjected to three different slopes (5°, 15°, and 20° so as to study RRP characteristics in semiarid regions. Regression analysis was used to study the results of this test. The following key results were obtained: (1 With the increase in rainfall intensity and slope, the increasing relationship with rainfall duration, overland flow, and cumulative runoff, respectively, complied with logarithmic and quadratic functions before reaching stable runoff in each growing stage of spring maize; (2 The runoff coefficient increased with the increase in rainfall intensity and slope in each growing stages of spring maize. The relationship between runoff coefficient, slope, rainfall intensity, rainfall duration, antecedent soil moisture, and vegetation coverage was multivariate and nonlinear; (3 The runoff lag time decreased with the increase in rainfall intensity and slope within the same growing stage. In addition, the relationship between runoff lag time, slope, rainfall intensity, antecedent soil moisture, and vegetation coverage could also be expressed by a multivariate nonlinear equation; (4 The descent rate of soil infiltration rate curve increased with the increased rainfall intensity and slope in the same growing stage. Furthermore, by comparing the Kostiakov, Horton, and Philip models, it was found that the Horton infiltration model was the best for estimating soil infiltration rate and cumulative infiltration under the condition of test.

  18. Rainfall-runoff simulation and flood forecasting for Huaihe Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Zhijia


    Full Text Available The main purpose of this study was to forecast the inflow to Hongze Lake using the Xin'anjiang rainfall-runoff model. The upper area of Hongze Lake in the Huaihe Basin was divided into 23 sub-basins, including the surface of Hongze Lake. The influence of reservoirs and gates on flood forecasting was considered in a practical and simple way. With a one-day time step, the linear and non-linear Muskingum method was used for channel flood routing, and the least-square regression model was used for real-time correction in flood forecasting. Representative historical data were collected for the model calibration. The hydrological model parameters for each sub-basin were calibrated individually, so the parameters of the Xin'anjiang model were different for different sub-basins. This flood forecasting system was used in the real-time simulation of the large flood in 2005 and the results are satisfactory when compared with measured data from the flood.

  19. Rainfall-runoff simulation and flood forecasting for Huaihe Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhi-jia LI


    Full Text Available The main purpose of this study was to forecast the inflow to Hongze Lake using the Xin anjiang rainfall-runoff model. The upper area of Hongze Lake in the Huaihe Basin was divided into 23 sub-basins, including the surface of Hongze Lake. The influence of reservoirs and gates on flood forecasting was considered in a practical and simple way. With a one-day time step, the linear and non-linear Muskingum method was used for channel flood routing, and the least-square regression model was used for real-time correction in flood forecasting. Representative historical data were collected for the model calibration. The hydrological model parameters for each sub-basin were calibrated individually, so the parameters of the Xin anjiang model were different for different sub-basins. This flood forecasting system was used in the real-time simulation of the large flood in 2005 and the results are satisfactory when compared with measured data from the flood.

  20. Numerical simulation of runoff from extreme rainfall events in a mountain water catchment


    Burguete, J.; García-Navarro, P.; Aliod, R.


    A numerical model for unsteady shallow water flow over initially dry areas is applied to a case study in a small drainage area at the Spanish Ebro River basin. Several flood mitigation measures (reforestation, construction of a small reservoir and channelization) are simulated in the model in order to compare different extreme rainfall-runoff scenarios.

  1. Numerical simulation of runoff from extreme rainfall events in a mountain water catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Burguete


    Full Text Available A numerical model for unsteady shallow water flow over initially dry areas is applied to a case study in a small drainage area at the Spanish Ebro River basin. Several flood mitigation measures (reforestation, construction of a small reservoir and channelization are simulated in the model in order to compare different extreme rainfall-runoff scenarios.

  2. Partial Least Squares Regression for Determining the Control Factors for Runoff and Suspended Sediment Yield during Rainfall Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nufang Fang


    Full Text Available Multivariate statistics are commonly used to identify the factors that control the dynamics of runoff or sediment yields during hydrological processes. However, one issue with the use of conventional statistical methods to address relationships between variables and runoff or sediment yield is multicollinearity. The main objectives of this study were to apply a method for effectively identifying runoff and sediment control factors during hydrological processes and apply that method to a case study. The method combines the clustering approach and partial least squares regression (PLSR models. The case study was conducted in a mountainous watershed in the Three Gorges Area. A total of 29 flood events in three hydrological years in areas with different land uses were obtained. In total, fourteen related variables were separated from hydrographs using the classical hydrograph separation method. Twenty-nine rainfall events were classified into two rainfall regimes (heavy Rainfall Regime I and moderate Rainfall Regime II based on rainfall characteristics and K-means clustering. Four separate PLSR models were constructed to identify the main variables that control runoff and sediment yield for the two rainfall regimes. For Rainfall Regime I, the dominant first-order factors affecting the changes in sediment yield in our study were all of the four rainfall-related variables, flood peak discharge, maximum flood suspended sediment concentration, runoff, and the percentages of forest and farmland. For Rainfall Regime II, antecedent condition-related variables have more effects on both runoff and sediment yield than in Rainfall Regime I. The results suggest that the different control factors of the two rainfall regimes are determined by the rainfall characteristics and thus different runoff mechanisms.

  3. Use of KNN technique to improve the efficiency of SCE-UA optimisation method applied to the calibration of HBV Rainfall-Runoff model (United States)

    Dakhlaoui, H.; Bargaoui, Z.


    The Calibration of Rainfall-Runoff models can be viewed as an optimisation problem involving an objective function that measures the model performance expressed as a distance between observed and calculated discharges. Effectiveness (ability to find the optimum) and efficiency (cost expressed in number of objective function evaluations to reach the optimum) are the main criteria of choose of the optimisation method. SCE-UA is known as one of the most effective and efficient optimisation method. In this work we tried to improve the SCE-UA efficiency, in the case of the calibration of HBV model by using KNN technique to estimate the objective function. In fact after a number of iterations by SCE-UA, when objective function is evaluated by model simulation, a data base of parameter explored and respective objective function values is constituted. Within this data base it is proposed to estimate the objective function in further iterations, by an interpolation using nearest neighbours in a normalised parameter space with weighted Euclidean distance. Weights are chosen proportional to the sensitivity of parameter to objective function that gives more importance to sensitive parameter. Evaluation of model output is done through the objective function RV=R2- w |RD| where R2 is Nash Sutcliffe coefficient related to discharges, w : a weight and RD the relative bias. Applied to theoretical and practical cases in several catchments under different climatic conditions : Rottweil (Germany) and Tessa, Barbra, and Sejnane (Tunisia), the hybrid SCE-UA presents efficiency better then that of initial SCE-UA by about 20 to 30 %. By using other techniques as parameter space transformation and SCE-UA modification (2), we may obtain an algorithm two to three times faster. (1) Avi Ostfeld, Shani Salomons, "A hybrid genetic-instance learning algorithm for CE*QAL-W2 calibration", Journal of Hydrology 310 (2005) 122-125 (2) Nitin Mutil and Shie-Yui Liong, "Improved robustness and Efficiency

  4. Genetic algorithm optimized rainfall-runoff fuzzy inference system for row crop watersheds with claypan soils (United States)

    The fuzzy logic algorithm has the ability to describe knowledge in a descriptive human-like manner in the form of simple rules using linguistic variables, and provides a new way of modeling uncertain or naturally fuzzy hydrological processes like non-linear rainfall-runoff relationships. Fuzzy infe...

  5. Rainfall-runoff modelling and palaeoflood hydrology applied to reconstruct centennial scale records of flooding and aquifer recharge in ungauged ephemeral rivers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Benito


    Full Text Available In this study we propose a multi-source data approach for quantifying long-term flooding and aquifer recharge in ungauged ephemeral rivers. The methodology is applied to the Buffels River, at 9000 km2 the largest ephemeral river in Namaqualand (NW South Africa, a region with scarce stream flow records limiting research investigating hydrological response to global change. Daily discharge and annual flood series (1965–2006 were estimated from a distributed rainfall-runoff hydrological model (TETIS using rainfall gauge records located within the catchment. The model was calibrated and validated with data collected during a two year monitoring programme (2005–2006 at two stream flow stations, one each in the upper and lower reaches of the catchment. In addition to the modelled flow records, non-systematic flood data were reconstructed using both sedimentary and documentary evidence. The palaeoflood record identified at least 25 large floods during the last 700 yr; with the largest floods reaching a minimum discharge of 255 m3 s−1 (450 yr return period in the upper basin, and 510 m3 s−1 (100 yr return period in the lower catchment. Since AD 1925, the flood hydrology of the Buffels River has been characterised by a decrease in the magnitude and frequency of extreme floods, with palaeoflood discharges (period 1500–1921 five times greater than the largest modelled floods during the period 1965–2006. Large floods generated the highest hydrograph volumes, however their contribution to aquifer recharge is limited as this depends on other factors such as flood duration and storage capacity of the unsaturated zone prior to the flood. Floods having average return intervals of 5–10 yr (120–140 m3 s−1 and flowing for 12 days are able to fully saturate the Spektakel aquifer in the lower Buffels River basin. Alluvial aquifer storage capacity limiting potential recharge

  6. Use of Fuzzy rainfall-runoff predictions for claypan watersheds with conservation buffers in Northeast Missouri (United States)

    Anomaa Senaviratne, G. M. M. M.; Udawatta, Ranjith P.; Anderson, Stephen H.; Baffaut, Claire; Thompson, Allen


    Fuzzy rainfall-runoff models are often used to forecast flood or water supply in large catchments and applications at small/field scale agricultural watersheds are limited. The study objectives were to develop, calibrate, and validate a fuzzy rainfall-runoff model using long-term data of three adjacent field scale row crop watersheds (1.65-4.44 ha) with intermittent discharge in the claypan soils of Northeast Missouri. The watersheds were monitored for a six-year calibration period starting 1991 (pre-buffer period). Thereafter, two of them were treated with upland contour grass and agroforestry (tree + grass) buffers (4.5 m wide, 36.5 m apart) to study water quality benefits. The fuzzy system was based on Mamdani method using MATLAB 7.10.0. The model predicted event-based runoff with model performance coefficients of r2 and Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient (NSC) values greater than 0.65 for calibration and validation. The pre-buffer fuzzy system predicted event-based runoff for 30-50 times larger corn/soybean watersheds with r2 values of 0.82 and 0.68 and NSC values of 0.77 and 0.53, respectively. The runoff predicted by the fuzzy system closely agreed with values predicted by physically-based Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender model (APEX) for the pre-buffer watersheds. The fuzzy rainfall-runoff model has the potential for runoff predictions at field-scale watersheds with minimum input. It also could up-scale the predictions for large-scale watersheds to evaluate the benefits of conservation practices.

  7. Flood Frequency Analysis for the Annual Peak Flows Simulated by an Event-Based Rainfall-Runoff Model in an Urban Drainage Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeonghwan Ahn


    Full Text Available The proper assessment of design flood is a major concern for many hydrological applications in small urban watersheds. A number of approaches can be used including statistical approach and the continuous simulation and design storm methods. However, each method has its own limitations and assumptions being applied to the real world. The design storm method has been widely used for a long time because of the simplicity of the method, but three critical assumptions are made such as the equality of the return periods between the rainfall and corresponding flood quantiles and the selections of the rainfall hyetograph and antecedent soil moisture conditions. Continuous simulation cannot be applied to small urban catchments with quick responses of runoff to rainfall. In this paper, a new flood frequency analysis for the simulated annual peak flows (FASAP is proposed. This method employs the candidate rainfall events selected by considering a time step order of five minutes and a sliding duration without any assumptions about the conventional design storm method in an urban watershed. In addition, the proposed methodology was verified by comparing the results with the conventional method in a real urban watershed.

  8. Linking landscape structure and rainfall runoff behaviour in a thermodynamic optimality context (United States)

    Zehe, Erwin; Ehret, Uwe; Blume, Theresa; Kleidon, Axel; Scherer, Ulrike; Westhoff, Martijn


    gradients, and thus a faster relaxation back towards local thermodynamic equilibrium. Thermodynamic optimality principles allow for a priory optimization of the resistance field at a given gradient, not in the sense how they exactly look like but in the sense how they function with respect to export and dissipation of free energy associated with rainfall runoff processes. Based on this framework we explored the possibility of independent predictions of rainfall runoff, in the sense that the a-priory optimum model structures should match independent observations. We found that spatially organized patterns of soils and macropores observed in two distinctly different landscapes are in close accordance with thermodynamic optima expressed either by minimized relaxation times towards local thermodynamic equilibrium in cohesive soils or as steady state in the potential energy of soil water in non-cohesive soils. Predicted rainfall runoff based on the two optimized model structures was in both catchments in acceptable accordance with independent discharge observations. However, the nature of these optima suggests there might be two distinctly different thermodynamically optimal regimes of rainfall runoff behaviour. In the capillary- or c--regime, free energy dynamics of soil water is dominated by changes in its capillary binding energy, which is the case for cohesive soils. Soil wetting during rainfall in the c-regime implies pushing the system back towards LTE, especially after long dry spells. Dead ended macropores (roots, worm burrows which end in the soil matrix) act as dissipative wetting structures by enlarging water flows against steep gradients in soil water potential after long dry spells. This implies accelerated depletion of these gradients and faster relaxation back towards LTE during rainfall runoff. In the c-regime several optimum macropore densities with respect to maximization of net reduction of free energy exist. This is because the governing equation is a second

  9. Runoff analysis of urban area using urban runoff models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahn, Sang-Jin; Kim, Jin-Geg [Chungbuk National University, Cheongju (Korea)


    The flood damage has being increased because of urbanization due to the industrialization and the growth of population. Therefore, the hydrologic properties such as increasing the peak flow and decreasing the concentration time of the peak flow have been changed. Hence, the interest of an urban prevention against flood disasters has been centralized at the present day. The objectives of this study is to develop the suitable models to calculate the runoff characteristics from an urban basin. This study describes the properties of each urban hydrologic model and to determine suitable basin model using the ILLUDAS and SWMM models in the urban runoff models in the Yong-Ahm area at Chungju. The peak flow, concentration time and total runoff value of this area are compared and analyzed with regard to calculated and real values. After obtaining values appropriated from the ILLUDAS and SWMM models using 5 rainfall events in this areas, the peak flows, concentration times and total runoff values are compared with real values. As a result of this study, the Transport block of the SWMM is closely shown to real values. (author). 11 refs., 6 tabs., 13 figs.

  10. [Monitoring and analysis on evolution process of rainfall runoff water quality in urban area]. (United States)

    Dong, Wen; Li, Huai-En; Li, Jia-Ke


    In order to find the water quality evolution law and pollution characteristics of the rainfall runoff from undisturbed to the neighborhood exit, 6 times evolution process of rainfall runoff water quality were monitored and analyzed from July to October in 2011, and contrasted the clarification efficiency of the grassland to the roof runoff rudimentarily at the same time. The research showed: 1. the results of the comparison from "undisturbed, rainfall-roof, rainfall runoff-road, rainfall-runoff the neighborhood exit runoff " showed that the water quality of the undisturbed rain was better than that from the roof and the neighborhood exist, but the road rainfall runoff water quality was the worst; 2. the average concentrations of the parameters such as COD, ammonia nitrogen and total nitrogen all exceeded the Fifth Class of the Surface Water Quality Standard except for the soluble total phosphorus from undisturbed rainfall to the neighborhood exit; 3. the runoff water quality of the short early fine days was better than that of long early fine days, and the last runoff water quality was better than that of the initial runoff in the same rainfall process; 4. the concentration reduction of the grassland was notable, and the reduction rate of the grassland which is 1.0 meter wide of the roof runoff pollutants such as COD and nitrogen reached 30%.

  11. Estimation of Surface Runoff in the Jucar River Basin from Rainfall Data and SMOS Soil Moisture (United States)

    Garcia Leal, Julio A.; Estrela, Teodoro; Fidalgo, Arancha; Gabaldo, Onofre; Gonzalez Robles, Maura; Herrera Daza, Eddy; Khodayar, Samiro; Lopez-Baeza, Ernesto


    Surface runoff is the water that flows after soil is infiltrated to full capacity and excess water from rain, meltwater, or other sources flows over the land. When the soil is saturated and the depression storage filled, and rain continues to fall, the rainfall will immediately produce surface runoff. The Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) method is widely used for determining the approximate direct runoff volume for a given rainfall event in a particular area. The advantage of the method is its simplicity and widespread inclusion in existing computer models. It was originally developed by the US Department of Agriculture, Soil Conservation Service, and documented in detail in the National Engineering Handbook, Sect. 4: Hydrology (NEH-4) (USDA-SCS, 1985). Although the SCS-CN method was originally developed in the United States and mainly for the evaluation of storm runoff in small agricultural watersheds, it soon evolved well beyond its original objective and was adopted for various land uses and became an integral part of more complex, long-term, simulation models. The basic assumption of the SCS-CN method is that, for a single storm, the ratio of actual soil retention after runoff begins to potential maximum retention is equal to the ratio of direct runoff to available rainfall. This relationship, after algebraic manipulation and inclusion of simplifying assumptions, results in the following equation given in USDA-SCS (1985): (P--0,2S)2 Q = (P + 0,8S) where Q is the average runoff (mm), P the effective precipitation (mm) and S is potential maximum retention (mm) after the rainfall event. The study has been applied to the Jucar River Basin area, East of Spain. A selection of recent significant rainfall events has been made corresponding to the periods around 22nd November, 2011 and 28-29 September and 10 October, 2012, from Jucar River Basin Authority rain gauge data. Potential maximum retention values for each point have been assumed as the first

  12. Which resilience of the continental rainfall-runoff chain? (United States)

    Fraedrich, Klaus


    Processes along the continental rainfall-runoff chain are extremely variable over a wide range of time and space scales. A key societal question is the multiscale resilience of this chain. We argue that the adequate framework to tackle this question can be obtained by combining observations (ranging from minutes to decades) and minimalist concepts: (i) Rainfall exhibits 1/f-spectra if presented as binary events (tropics) and extrema world wide increase with duration according to Jennings' scaling law as simulated by a censored first-order autoregressive process representing vertical moisture fluxes. (ii) Runoff volatility (Yangtze) shows data collapse which, linked to an intra-annual 1/f-spectrum, is represented by a single function (Gumbel) not unlike physical systems at criticality, while short and long return times of extremes are Weibull-distributed. (iii) Soil moisture, interpreted by a biased coinflip Ansatz for rainfall events, provides an equation of state to the surface energy and water flux balances comprising Budyko's framework for quasi-stationary watershed analysis. (iv) Vegetation-greenness (NDVI), included as an active tracer extends Budyko's eco-hydrologic state space analysis, supplements the common geographical presentations, and it may be linked to a minimalist biodiversity concept. (v) Finally, attributions of change to external (or climate) and internal (or anthropogenic) causes are determined by eco-hydrologic state space trajectories using surface flux ratios of energy excess (loss by sensible heat over supply by net radiation) versus water excess (loss by discharge over gain by precipitation). Risk-estimates (by GCM-emulators) and possible policy advice mechanisms enter the outlook.

  13. Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB) for estimating water availability during water scarcity conditions: rainfall-runoff modelling of the ungauged diversion inflows to the Ridracoli water supply reservoir (United States)

    Toth, Elena


    The Ridracoli reservoir is the main drinking water supply reservoir serving the whole Romagna region, in Northern Italy. Such water supply system has a crucial role in an area where the different characteristics of the communities to be served, their size, the mass tourism and the presence of food industries highlight strong differences in drinking water needs. Its operation allows high quality drinking water supply to a million resident customers, plus a few millions of tourists during the summer of people and it reduces the need for water pumping from underground sources, and this is particularly important since the coastal area is subject also to subsidence and saline ingression into aquifers. The system experienced water shortage conditions thrice in the last decade, in 2002, in 2007 and in autumn-winter 2011-2012, when the reservoir water storage fell below the attention and the pre-emergency thresholds, thus prompting the implementation of a set of mitigation measures, including limitations to the population's water consumption. The reservoir receives water not only from the headwater catchment, closed at the dam, but also from four diversion watersheds, linked to the reservoir through an underground water channel. Such withdrawals are currently undersized, abstracting only a part of the streamflow exceeding the established minimum flows, due to the design of the water intake structures; it is therefore crucial understanding how the reservoir water availability might be increased through a fuller exploitation of the existing diversion catchment area. Since one of the four diversion catchment is currently ungauged (at least at the fine temporal scale needed for keeping into account the minimum flow requirements downstream of the intakes), the study first presents the set up and parameterisation of a continuous rainfall-runoff model at hourly time-step for the three gauged diversion watersheds and for the headwater catchment: a regional parameterisation

  14. Influence of Rainfall Characteristics on Total Suspended Solids in Urban Runoff: A Case Study in Beijing, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongwei Gong


    Full Text Available An urban rainfall-runoff water quality model was developed to simulate total suspend solids (TSS using the stormwater management model (SWMM for a 3.8 ha university campus in Beijing (approximately 76.5% impervious, and calibrated and validated against data from two observed rainfall events (221.2 and 16.6 mm rainfall. Model performance is satisfactory (Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency 0.8 and 0.72 for flow and 0.74 and 0.51 for TSS concentration, respectively. A series of sensitivity model runs were conducted using the calibrated SWMM to study the influences of rainfall characteristics (rainfall hyetographs, depths and durations and surface flooding on the TSS concentration in outlet runoff of the catchment. The Pilgrim and Cordery rainfall distribution defines a first-quartile storm (the most severe and results in the highest peak discharge and TSS concentration at the outlet but the lowest outlet TSS load because of the highest TSS flood loss (32.3%. The simulated TSS pollutograph resulting from the Keifer and Chu rainfall distribution (with r = 0.5 is almost identical to that resulting from the alternating block rainfall distribution. Under the same rainfall hyetograph, simulated peak discharge and outlet TSS load are positively correlated (R2 = 0.95 to the rainfall depth as a function of the return period.

  15. A formal statistical approach to representing uncertainty in rainfall-runoff modelling with focus on residual analysis and probabilistic output evaluation - Distinguishing simulation and prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Breinholt, Anders; Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Madsen, Henrik


    and for checking the reliability of the confidence bounds. Using point rainfall and evaporation data as input and flow measurements from a sewer system for model conditioning, a state space model is formulated that accounts for three different flow contributions: wastewater from households, and fast rainfall...... Equations (SDEs) that separates input and model structure uncertainty from observation uncertainty and allows updating of model states in real-time. The results show that the optimal simulation (off-line) model is based on the output error method whereas the optimal prediction (on-line) model is based...... necessary but the statistical assumptions were nevertheless not 100% justified. The residual analysis showed that significant autocorrelation was present for all simulation models. We believe users of formal approaches to uncertainty evaluation within hydrology and within environmental modelling in general...

  16. Quantifying rainfall-runoff relationships on the Mieso Hypo Calcic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)


    Apr 17, 2012 ... The in-field rainwater harvesting technique described in. Fig. 1 will result in increased crop yields on the Mieso. Hypo Calcic Vertisol ecotope in Ethiopia. • The MC model will satisfactorily predict runoff on the ecotope. • It will be possible to make reasonable estimates of yield increases on the ecotope using ...

  17. Let-It-Rain: a web application for stochastic point rainfall generation at ungaged basins and its applicability in runoff and flood modeling


    Kim, D; Cho, H.; Onof, C.; Choi, M


    ?? 2016 Springer-Verlag Berlin HeidelbergWe present a web application named Let-It-Rain that is able to generate a 1-h temporal resolution synthetic rainfall time series using the modified Bartlett???Lewis rectangular pulse (MBLRP) model, a type of Poisson stochastic rainfall generator. Let-It-Rain, which can be accessed through the web address, adopts a web-based framework combining ArcGIS Server from server side for parameter value dissemination and JavaScript from...

  18. Evaluation of an artificial neural network rainfall disaggregation model. (United States)

    Burian, S J; Durran, S R


    Previous research produced an artificial neural network (ANN) temporal rainfall disaggregation model. After proper training the model can disaggregate hourly rainfall records into sub-hourly time increments. In this paper we present results from continued evaluations of the performance of the ANN model specifically examining how the errors in the disaggregated rainfall hyetograph translate to errors in the prediction of the runoff hydrograph. Using a rainfall-runoff model of a hypothetical watershed we compare the runoff hydrographs produced by the ANN-predicted 15-minute increment rainfall pattern to runoff hydrographs produced by (1) the observed 15-minute increment rainfall pattern, (2) the observed hourly-increment rainfall pattern, and (3) the 15-minute increment rainfall pattern produced by a disaggregation model based on geometric similarity. For 98 test storms the peak discharges produced by the ANN model rainfall pattern had a median under-prediction of 16.6%. This relative error was less than the median under-prediction in peak discharge when using the observed 15-minute rainfall patterns aggregated to hourly increments (40.8%), and when using rainfall patterns produced by the geometric similarity rainfall disaggregation model (21.9%).

  19. Rainfall-runoff properties of tephra: Simulated effects of grain-size and antecedent rainfall (United States)

    Jones, Robbie; Thomas, Robert E.; Peakall, Jeff; Manville, Vern


    Rain-triggered lahars (RTLs) are a significant and often persistent secondary volcanic hazard at many volcanoes around the world. Rainfall on unconsolidated volcaniclastic material is the primary initiation mechanism of RTLs: the resultant flows have the potential for large runout distances (> 100 km) and present a substantial hazard to downstream infrastructure and communities. RTLs are frequently anticipated in the aftermath of eruptions, but the pattern, timing and scale of lahars varies on an eruption-by-eruption and even catchment-by-catchment basis. This variability is driven by a set of local factors including the grain size distribution, thickness, stratigraphy and spatial distribution of source material in addition to topography, vegetation coverage and rainfall conditions. These factors are often qualitatively discussed in RTL studies based on post-eruption lahar observations or instrumental detections. Conversely, this study aims to move towards a quantitative assessment of RTL hazard in order to facilitate RTL predictions and forecasts based on constrained rainfall, grain size distribution and isopach data. Calibrated simulated rainfall and laboratory-constructed tephra beds are used within a repeatable experimental set-up to isolate the effects of individual parameters and to examine runoff and infiltration processes from analogous RTL source conditions. Laboratory experiments show that increased antecedent rainfall and finer-grained surface tephra individually increase runoff rates and decrease runoff lag times, while a combination of these factors produces a compound effect. These impacts are driven by increased residual moisture content and decreased permeability due to surface sealing, and have previously been inferred from downstream observations of lahars but not identified at source. Water and sediment transport mechanisms differ based on surface grain size distribution: a fine-grained surface layer displayed airborne remobilisation

  20. Space-time-frequency analysis of rainfall, runoff and temperature in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Available data on rainfall, temperature, and surface runoff from two upstream stations were used to develop a procedure for estimating runoff from the annual surplus values of precipitation minus reference evaporation. The resulting equations accounted for 74% to 77% of the variation in runoff. Spatial and temporal ...

  1. SCS-CN parameter determination using rainfall-runoff data in heterogeneous watersheds – the two-CN system approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. D. Valiantzas


    Full Text Available The Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN approach is widely used as a simple method for predicting direct runoff volume for a given rainfall event. The CN parameter values corresponding to various soil, land cover, and land management conditions can be selected from tables, but it is preferable to estimate the CN value from measured rainfall-runoff data if available. However, previous researchers indicated that the CN values calculated from measured rainfall-runoff data vary systematically with the rainfall depth. Hence, they suggested the determination of a single asymptotic CN value observed for very high rainfall depths to characterize the watersheds' runoff response. In this paper, the hypothesis that the observed correlation between the calculated CN value and the rainfall depth in a watershed reflects the effect of soils and land cover spatial variability on its hydrologic response is being tested. Based on this hypothesis, the simplified concept of a two-CN heterogeneous system is introduced to model the observed CN-rainfall variation by reducing the CN spatial variability into two classes. The behaviour of the CN-rainfall function produced by the simplified two-CN system is approached theoretically, it is analysed systematically, and it is found to be similar to the variation observed in natural watersheds. Synthetic data tests, natural watersheds examples, and detailed study of two natural experimental watersheds with known spatial heterogeneity characteristics were used to evaluate the method. The results indicate that the determination of CN values from rainfall runoff data using the proposed two-CN system approach provides reasonable accuracy and it over performs the previous methods based on the determination of a single asymptotic CN value. Although the suggested method increases the number of unknown parameters to three (instead of one, a clear physical reasoning for them is presented.

  2. a High-Performance Method for Simulating Surface Rainfall-Runoff Dynamics Using Particle System (United States)

    Zhang, Fangli; Zhou, Qiming; Li, Qingquan; Wu, Guofeng; Liu, Jun


    The simulation of rainfall-runoff process is essential for disaster emergency and sustainable development. One common disadvantage of the existing conceptual hydrological models is that they are highly dependent upon specific spatial-temporal contexts. Meanwhile, due to the inter-dependence of adjacent flow paths, it is still difficult for the RS or GIS supported distributed hydrological models to achieve high-performance application in real world applications. As an attempt to improve the performance efficiencies of those models, this study presents a high-performance rainfall-runoff simulating framework based on the flow path network and a separate particle system. The vector-based flow path lines are topologically linked to constrain the movements of independent rain drop particles. A separate particle system, representing surface runoff, is involved to model the precipitation process and simulate surface flow dynamics. The trajectory of each particle is constrained by the flow path network and can be tracked by concurrent processors in a parallel cluster system. The result of speedup experiment shows that the proposed framework can significantly improve the simulating performance just by adding independent processors. By separating the catchment elements and the accumulated water, this study provides an extensible solution for improving the existing distributed hydrological models. Further, a parallel modeling and simulating platform needs to be developed and validate to be applied in monitoring real world hydrologic processes.

  3. Along the Rainfall-Runoff Chain: From Scaling of Greatest Point Rainfall to Global Change Attribution (United States)

    Fraedrich, K.


    Processes along the continental rainfall-runoff chain cover a wide range of time and space scales which are presented here combining observations (ranging from minutes to decades) and minimalist concepts. (i) Rainfall, which can be simulated by a censored first-order autoregressive process (vertical moisture fluxes), exhibits 1/f-spectra if presented as binary events (tropics), while extrema world wide increase with duration according to Jennings' scaling law. (ii) Runoff volatility (Yangtze) shows data collapse which, linked to an intra-annual 1/f-spectrum, is represented by a single function not unlike physical systems at criticality and the short and long return times of extremes are Weibull-distributed. Atmospheric and soil moisture variabilities are also discussed. (iii) Soil moisture (in a bucket), whose variability is interpreted by a biased coinflip Ansatz for rainfall events, adds an equation of state to energy and water flux balances comprising Budyko's frame work for quasi-stationary watershed analysis. Eco-hydrologic state space presentations in terms of surface flux ratios of energy excess (loss by sensible heat over supply by net radiation) versus water excess (loss by discharge over gain by precipitation) allow attributions of state change to external (or climate) and internal (or anthropogenic) causes. Including the vegetation-greenness index (NDVI) as an active tracer extends the eco-hydrologic state space analysis to supplement the common geographical presentations. Two examples demonstrate the approach combining ERA and MODIS data sets: (a) global geobotanic classification by combining first and second moments of the dryness ratio (net radiation over precipitation) and (b) regional attributions (Tibetan Plateau) of vegetation changes.

  4. Analysis of one dimension migration law from rainfall runoff on urban roof (United States)

    Weiwei, Chen


    Research was taken on the hydrology and water quality process in the natural rain condition and water samples were collected and analyzed. The pollutant were included SS, COD and TN. Based on the mass balance principle, one dimension migration model was built for the rainfall runoff pollution in surface. The difference equation was developed according to the finite difference method, by applying the Newton iteration method for solving it. The simulated pollutant concentration process was in consistent with the measured value on model, and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was higher than 0.80. The model had better practicability, which provided evidence for effectively utilizing urban rainfall resource, non-point source pollution of making management technologies and measures, sponge city construction, and so on.

  5. Predicting Characteristics of Rainfall Driven Estrogen Runoff and Transport from Swine AFO Spray Fields (United States)

    Lee, Boknam; Kullman, Seth W.; Yost, Erin E.; Meyer, Michael T.; Worley-Davis, Lynn; Williams, C. Michael; Reckhow, Kenneth H.


    Animal feeding operations (AFOs) have been implicated as potentially major sources of estrogenic contaminants into the aquatic environment due to the relatively minimal treatment of waste and potential mobilization and transport of waste components from spray fields. In this study a Bayesian network (BN) model was developed to inform management decisions and better predict the transport and fate of natural steroidal estrogens from these sites. The developed BN model integrates processes of surface runoff and sediment loss with the modified universal soil loss equation (MUSLE) and the soil conservation service curve number (SCS-CN) runoff model. What-if scenario simulations of lagoon slurry wastes to the spray fields were conducted for the most abundant natural estrogen estrone (E1) observed in the system. It was found that E1 attenuated significantly after 2 months following waste slurry application in both spring and summer seasons, with the overall attenuation rate predicted to be higher in the summer compared to the spring. Using simulations of rainfall events in conjunction with waste slurry application rates, it was predicted that the magnitude of E1 runoff loss is significantly higher in the spring as compared to the summer months, primarily due to spray field crop management plans. Our what-if scenario analyses suggest that planting Bermuda grass in the spray fields is likely to reduce runoff losses of natural estrogens near the water bodies and ecosystems, as compared to planting of soybeans. PMID:26102057

  6. Multi-catchment rainfall-runoff simulation for extreme flood estimation (United States)

    Paquet, Emmanuel


    The SCHADEX method (Paquet et al., 2013) is a reference method in France for the estimation of extreme flood for dam design. The method is based on a semi-continuous rainfall-runoff simulation process: hundreds of different rainy events, randomly drawn up to extreme values, are simulated independently in the hydrological conditions of each day when a rainy event has been actually observed. This allows generating an exhaustive set of crossings between precipitation and soil saturation hazards, and to build a complete distribution of flood discharges up to extreme quantiles. The hydrological model used within SCHADEX, the MORDOR model (Garçon, 1996), is a lumped model, which implies that hydrological processes, e.g. rainfall and soil saturation, are supposed to be homogeneous throughout the catchment. Snow processes are nevertheless represented in relation with altitude. This hypothesis of homogeneity is questionable especially as the size of the catchment increases, or in areas of highly contrasted climatology (like mountainous areas). Conversely, modeling the catchment with a fully distributed approach would cause different problems, in particular distributing the rainfall-runoff model parameters trough space, and within the SCHADEX stochastic framework, generating extreme rain fields with credible spatio-temporal features. An intermediate solution is presented here. It provides a better representation of the hydro-climatic diversity of the studied catchment (especially regarding flood processes) while keeping the SCHADEX simulation framework. It consists in dividing the catchment in several, more homogeneous sub-catchments. Rainfall-runoff models are parameterized individually for each of them, using local discharge data if available. A first SCHADEX simulation is done at the global scale, which allows assigning a probability to each simulated event, mainly based on the global areal rainfall drawn for the event (see Paquet el al., 2013 for details). Then the

  7. Explaining shifts in rainfall-runoff partitioning during decade-long drought in Australia (United States)

    Saft, Margarita; Peel, Murray; Western, Andrew; Zhang, Lu


    Significant shifts in annual rainfall-runoff partitioning were observed during a severe decade-long drought in Australia. During the drought, less runoff was generated for a given rainfall in comparison to other dry years. However, shifts in the rainfall-runoff behaviour were very prominent in some catchments, but not in others. We attempt to explain this variability in catchment drought response using a multimodel inference approach. We systematically analyse the relative role of 37 potentially influential factors, including both catchment and drought characteristics. We found that historically drier catchments, catchments with higher interannual variability of groundwater storage, less seasonal rainfall regime, and deeper soils had larger runoff deficits for a given rainfall during the decadal drought in comparison with shorter droughts. Interestingly, these most informative factors can, in theory, be known before the drought starts, which provides an opportunity to anticipate how rainfall-runoff partitioning might change in case of prolonged drought in any given catchment. In other words, our results can provide a measure of catchment susceptibility to shifts in hydrologic behaviour during prolonged drought. The associated physical explanations and mechanisms of change are discussed. We conclude that during extended climate drying, runoff deficits depend on whether catchment functioning changes, and this in turn is defined by the catchment biophysical structure.

  8. Dynamic Hydrological Modeling in Drylands with TRMM Based Rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Tarnavsky


    Full Text Available This paper introduces and evaluates DryMOD, a dynamic water balance model of the key hydrological process in drylands that is based on free, public-domain datasets. The rainfall model of DryMOD makes optimal use of spatially disaggregated Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM datasets to simulate hourly rainfall intensities at a spatial resolution of 1-km. Regional-scale applications of the model in seasonal catchments in Tunisia and Senegal characterize runoff and soil moisture distribution and dynamics in response to varying rainfall data inputs and soil properties. The results highlight the need for hourly-based rainfall simulation and for correcting TRMM 3B42 rainfall intensities for the fractional cover of rainfall (FCR. Without FCR correction and disaggregation to 1 km, TRMM 3B42 based rainfall intensities are too low to generate surface runoff and to induce substantial changes to soil moisture storage. The outcomes from the sensitivity analysis show that topsoil porosity is the most important soil property for simulation of runoff and soil moisture. Thus, we demonstrate the benefit of hydrological investigations at a scale, for which reliable information on soil profile characteristics exists and which is sufficiently fine to account for the heterogeneities of these. Where such information is available, application of DryMOD can assist in the spatial and temporal planning of water harvesting according to runoff-generating areas and the runoff ratio, as well as in the optimization of agricultural activities based on realistic representation of soil moisture conditions.

  9. Space-time-frequency analysis of rainfall, runoff and temperature in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)



    Jul 3, 2002 ... The tidal wave intrudes into the bed of the Casamance River and its tributaries up to a distance of 200 km. Freshwater enters the Casamance River estuary by canal discharge, storm drains, direct land runoff, and subsurface flow. TABLE 1. Rainfall-runoff measuring stations. Time interval Rain-gauging ...

  10. Rainfall Stochastic models (United States)

    Campo, M. A.; Lopez, J. J.; Rebole, J. P.


    This work was carried out in north of Spain. San Sebastian A meteorological station, where there are available precipitation records every ten minutes was selected. Precipitation data covers from October of 1927 to September of 1997. Pulse models describe the temporal process of rainfall as a succession of rainy cells, main storm, whose origins are distributed in time according to a Poisson process and a secondary process that generates a random number of cells of rain within each storm. Among different pulse models, the Bartlett-Lewis was used. On the other hand, alternative renewal processes and Markov chains describe the way in which the process will evolve in the future depending only on the current state. Therefore they are nor dependant on past events. Two basic processes are considered when describing the occurrence of rain: the alternation of wet and dry periods and temporal distribution of rainfall in each rain event, which determines the rainwater collected in each of the intervals that make up the rain. This allows the introduction of alternative renewal processes and Markov chains of three states, where interstorm time is given by either of the two dry states, short or long. Thus, the stochastic model of Markov chains tries to reproduce the basis of pulse models: the succession of storms, each one composed for a series of rain, separated by a short interval of time without theoretical complexity of these. In a first step, we analyzed all variables involved in the sequential process of the rain: rain event duration, event duration of non-rain, average rainfall intensity in rain events, and finally, temporal distribution of rainfall within the rain event. Additionally, for pulse Bartlett-Lewis model calibration, main descriptive statistics were calculated for each month, considering the process of seasonal rainfall in each month. In a second step, both models were calibrated. Finally, synthetic series were simulated with calibration parameters; series

  11. Rainfall distribution is the main driver of runoff under future CO2-concentration in a temperate deciduous forest (United States)

    Leuzinger, S.; Körner, C.


    Reduced stomatal conductance under elevated CO2 results in increased soil moisture, provided all other factors remain constant. Whether this results in increased runoff critically depends on the interaction of rainfall patterns, soil water storage capacity and plant responses. To test the sensitivity of runoff to these parameters under elevated CO2, we combine transpiration and soil moisture data from the Swiss Canopy Crane (SCC) FACE experiment with 104 years of daily precipitation data from an adjacent weather station to drive a three-layer bucket model (mean yearly precipitation 794 mm). The model adequately predicts the water budget of a temperate deciduous forest and runoff from a nearby gauging station. A simulation run over all 104 years based on sap flow responses resulted in only 5.5 mm (2.9 %) increased ecosystem runoff under elevated CO2. Out of the 37986 days (1.1.1901 to 31.12.2004), only 576 days produce higher runoff under in the elevated CO2 scenario. Only 1 out of 17 years produces a CO2-signal greater than 20 mma-1, which mostly depends on a few single days when runoff under elevated CO2 exceeds runoff under ambient conditions. The maximum signal for a double pre-industrial CO2-concentration under the past century daily rainfall regime is an additional runoff of 46 mm (year 1938). More than half of all years produce a signal of less than 5 mma-1, because trees consume the 'extra' moisture during prolonged dry weather. Increased runoff under elevated CO2 is 9 times more sensitive to variations in rain pattern than to the applied reduction in transpiration under elevated CO2. Thus the key driver of increased runoff under future CO2-concentration is the day by day rainfall pattern. We argue that increased runoff due to a first-order plant physiological CO2-effect will be very small (<3 %) in the landscape dominated by temperate deciduous forests, and will hardly increase flooding risk in forest catchments. It is likely that these results are equally

  12. 1896-2006 Sahelian annual rainfall variability and runoff increase of Sahelian Rivers (United States)

    Mahé, Gil; Paturel, Jean-Emmanuel


    Updated rainfall data to 2006 confirm that the Sahelian rainfall has increased since the end of the 1990s, but the annual average rainfall is still as low as during the drought of the 1970s. The decrease of rainfall is higher in the Northwest and lower in the Southeast Sahel. The increase of temperature over West Africa during the end of the 20th century induced an increase of Potential Evaporation, which might reduce the runoff. However, the joint effect of climate change and of human activities on land cover over more than three decades is responsible for an increase of the runoff coefficients of the West African Sahelian Rivers since the 1970s, despite the rainfall shortage during the same period, as revealed by the analysis of runoff from Mauritania, Burkina-Faso and Niger. The runoff coefficients have increased in regions with less than 750 mm of annual rainfall, under Sahelian and subdesertic climates, leading to increased flood peaks, occurring earlier in the season. Even if it is difficult to separate which part of this runoff coefficient increase is due to climate change alone or to human impact on land cover, the highest values are observed in the most inhabited areas, where land cover is dominated by cultivated areas. This climatic/human impact on land cover is so huge that it has changed since decades the hydrological regimes of the Sahelian Rivers, from the small watershed to the largest one, such as the Niger River at Niamey.

  13. Transport mechanisms of soil-bound mercury in the erosion process during rainfall-runoff events. (United States)

    Zheng, Yi; Luo, Xiaolin; Zhang, Wei; Wu, Xin; Zhang, Juan; Han, Feng


    Soil contamination by mercury (Hg) is a global environmental issue. In watersheds with a significant soil Hg storage, soil erosion during rainfall-runoff events can result in nonpoint source (NPS) Hg pollution and therefore, can extend its environmental risk from soils to aquatic ecosystems. Nonetheless, transport mechanisms of soil-bound Hg in the erosion process have not been explored directly, and how different fractions of soil organic matter (SOM) impact transport is not fully understood. This study investigated transport mechanisms based on rainfall-runoff simulation experiments. The experiments simulated high-intensity and long-duration rainfall conditions, which can produce significant soil erosion and NPS pollution. The enrichment ratio (ER) of total mercury (THg) was the key variable in exploring the mechanisms. The main study findings include the following: First, the ER-sediment flux relationship for Hg depends on soil composition, and no uniform ER-sediment flux function exists for different soils. Second, depending on soil composition, significantly more Hg could be released from a less polluted soil in the early stage of large rainfall events. Third, the heavy fraction of SOM (i.e., the remnant organic matter coating on mineral particles) has a dominant influence on the enrichment behavior and transport mechanisms of Hg, while clay mineral content exhibits a significant, but indirect, influence. The study results imply that it is critical to quantify the SOM composition in addition to total organic carbon (TOC) for different soils in the watershed to adequately model the NPS pollution of Hg and spatially prioritize management actions in a heterogeneous watershed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Runoff and Sediment Production under the Similar Rainfall Events in Different Aggregate Sizes of an Agricultural Soil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. F. Eslami


    Full Text Available Introduction: Soil erosion by water is the most serious form of land degradation throughout the world, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. In these areas, soils are weakly structured and are easily disrupted by raindrop impacts. Soil erosion is strongly affected by different factors such as rainfall characteristics, slope properties, vegetation cover, conservation practices, and soil erodibility. Different physicochemical soil properties such texture, structure, infiltration rate, organic matter, lime and exchangeable sodium percentage can affect the soil erodibility as well as soil erosion. Soil structure is one of the most important properties influencing runoff and soil loss because it determines the susceptibility of the aggregates to detach by either raindrop impacts or runoff shear stress. Many soil properties such as particle size distribution, organic matter, lime, gypsum, and exchangeable sodium percentage (ESP can affect the soil aggregation and the stability. Aggregates size distribution and their stability can be changed considerably because of agricultural practices. Information about variations of runoff and sediment in the rainfall events can be effective in modeling runoff as well as sediment. Thus, the study was conducted to determine runoff and sediment production of different aggregate sizes in the rainfall event scales. Materials and Methods: Toward the objective of the study, five aggregate classes consist of 0.25-2, 2-4.75, 4.75-5.6, 5.6-9.75, and 9.75-12.7 mm were collected from an agricultural sandy clay loam (0-30 cm using the related sieves in the field. Physicochemical soil analyses were performed in the aggregate samples using conventional methods in the lab. The aggregate samples were separately filed into fifteen flumes with a dimension of 50 cm × 100 cm and 15-cm in depth. The aggregate flumes were fixed on a steel plate with 9% slope and were exposed to the simulated rainfalls for investigating runoff and

  15. Comparison between snowmelt-runoff and rainfall-runoff nonpoint source pollution in a typical urban catchment in Beijing, China. (United States)

    Chen, Lei; Zhi, Xiaosha; Shen, Zhenyao; Dai, Ying; Aini, Guzhanuer


    As a climate-driven event, nonpoint source (NPS) pollution is caused by rainfall- or snowmelt-runoff processes; however, few studies have compared the characteristics and mechanisms of these two kinds of NPS processes. In this study, three factors relating to urban NPS, including surface dust, snowmelt, and rainfall-runoff processes, were analyzed comprehensively by both field sampling and laboratory experiments. The seasonal variation and leaching characteristics of pollutants in surface dust were explored, and the runoff quality of snowmelt NPS and rainfall NPS were compared. The results indicated that dusts are the main sources of urban NPS and more pollutants are deposited in dust samples during winter and spring. However, pollutants in surface dust showed a low leaching ratio, which indicated most NPS pollutants would be carried as particulate forms. Compared to surface layer, underlying snow contained higher chemical oxygen demand, total suspended solids (TSS), Cu, Fe, Mn, and Pb concentrations, while the event mean concentration of most pollutants in snowmelt tended to be higher in roads. Moreover, the TSS and heavy metal content of snowmelt NPS was always higher than those of rainfall NPS, which indicated the importance of controlling snowmelt pollution for effective water quality management.

  16. Alum and Rainfall Effects on Ionophores in Runoff from Surface-Applied Broiler Litter. (United States)

    Doydora, Sarah A; Franklin, Dorcas; Sun, Peizhe; Cabrera, Miguel; Thompson, Aaron; Love-Myers, Kimberly; Rema, John; Calvert, Vaughn; Pavlostathis, Spyros G; Huang, Ching-Hua


    Polyether ionophores, monensin, and salinomycin are commonly used as antiparasitic drugs in broiler production and may be present in broiler litter (bird excreta plus bedding material). Long-term application of broiler litter to pastures may lead to ionophore contamination of surface waters. Because polyether ionophores break down at low pH, we hypothesized that decreasing litter pH with an acidic material such as aluminum sulfate (alum) would reduce ionophore losses to runoff (i.e., monensin and salinomycin concentrations, loads, or amounts lost). We quantified ionophore loss to runoff in response to (i) addition of alum to broiler litter and (ii) length of time between litter application and the first simulated rainfall event. The factorial experiment consisted of unamended (∼pH 9) vs. alum-amended litters (∼pH 6), each combined with simulated rainfall at 0, 2, or 4 wk after litter application. Runoff from alum-amended broiler litter had 33% lower monensin concentration ( broiler litter when averaged across all events of rainfall. Ionophore losses to runoff were also less when rainfall was delayed for 2 or 4 wk after litter application relative to applying rainfall immediately after litter application. While the weather is difficult to predict, our data suggest that ionophore losses in runoff can be reduced if broiler litter applications are made to maximize dry time after application. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  17. Modelling surface run-off and trends analysis over India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Rainfall, soil texture, land cover types, slope, etc., were processed and run-off modelling was done using the Natural Resources ConservationService (NRCS) model with modifications and cell size of 5×5 km. The slope and antecedent moisture corrections were incorporated in the existing model. Trend analysis of ...

  18. Evaluation of QPE for the Rainfall-Runoff Analysis in Urban Area (United States)

    Choi, Sumin; Son, Along; Yoon, Seong-sim; Lee, Byungjoo; Choi, Youngjean


    The occurrence of local torrential rainfall has been increased. The local torrential rainfall resulted huge casualties and property damage from 2010 to 2012 in Seoul, Korea. Especially, the southern areas (Gangnam area) of Seoul incurred huge damages due to flash floods that occurred on September 21, 2010 and July 27, 2011. In this study, runoff analysis was performed focus on a significant area around Gangnam Station. For these, five drainage basins near Gangnam Station including one each in Nonhyun, Yeoksam and Seocho 3, 4, 5 were selected as target areas. The areas of these basins are 1.8 km2, 1.9 km2, 1.8 km2, 1.1 km2 and 0.8 km2, respectively. The drainage system of these basins consists of 4,170 manholes and total 200,698 km-length of pipelines. To obtain input data for runoff analysis, the Seoul drainage network map was used. In total, 773 manholes, 1,059 pipes, and 772 sub-catchments were used for the SWMM (Storm Water Management Model) as input data. The average area of sub-catchments was 0.01 km2. The average slope, calculated by using 5-m resolution DEM (Digital Elevation Model), was 1.801%. Also, CN (Curve Numbers) and impervious ratio were determined by using the Seoul Biotope Map, and the distribution were 47~95 and 10.6~100%, respectively. This analysis was performed for six rainfall events that occurred on July 2, 4, 12~14, 15, 22, and 23, 2013. There are two AWS (Automatic Weather Station) around this area, however, QPE rain fields were used to consider spatial distribution of local rainfall. Rainfall input data was constructed by MAP (Mean Areal Precipitation) for each sub-catchments estimated by using four types of QPE rain fields. The four QPEs were determined by 190 AWS data and radar data in Seoul, and the QPEs have 10min/250m resolution. To calibrate and evaluate the analysis, water depth data in manhole were collected for July 2013. There are six water depth gauge in the study area, three of them were used for the calibration and evaluation

  19. Potential of commercial microwave link network derived rainfall for river runoff simulations (United States)

    Smiatek, Gerhard; Keis, Felix; Chwala, Christian; Fersch, Benjamin; Kunstmann, Harald


    Commercial microwave link networks allow for the quantification of path integrated precipitation because the attenuation by hydrometeors correlates with rainfall between transmitter and receiver stations. The networks, operated and maintained by cellphone companies, thereby provide completely new and country wide precipitation measurements. As the density of traditional precipitation station networks worldwide is significantly decreasing, microwave link derived precipitation estimates receive increasing attention not only by hydrologists but also by meteorological and hydrological services. We investigate the potential of microwave derived precipitation estimates for streamflow prediction and water balance analyses, exemplarily shown for an orographically complex region in the German Alps (River Ammer). We investigate the additional value of link derived rainfall estimations combined with station observations compared to station and weather radar derived values. Our river runoff simulation system employs a distributed hydrological model at 100 × 100 m grid resolution. We analyze the potential of microwave link derived precipitation estimates for two episodes of 30 days with typically moderate river flow and an episode of extreme flooding. The simulation results indicate the potential of this novel precipitation monitoring method: a significant improvement in hydrograph reproduction has been achieved in the extreme flooding period that was characterized by a large number of local strong precipitation events. The present rainfall monitoring gauges alone were not able to correctly capture these events.

  20. A rainfall simulator for characterising dominant runoff processes on the scale of hillside segments (United States)

    Hümann, Marco; Schobel, Steffen; Müller, Christoph; Schneider, Raimund


    At present time it is common to use different kinds of hydrologic models or GIS applications to simulate runoff generation. Otherwise, especially the spatial variability of soil conditions and a lack of essential soil data makes it difficult to identify the specific mechanism of discharge generation at the plot scale or even at catchment scale. For this reason, sprinkling experiments combined with multi-attribute soil analysis are still a basic prerequisite for a realistic and knowledge-based assessment, which offers also the possibility of validating models in a second step. In several studies we performed sprinkling experiments for different land use types and a number of different substrates using the portable rainfall simulator according to Karl & Toldrian. The configuration consists of a U-shaped pipe system: Two parallel, 10 m long iron pipes are oriented along the slope line, and at their rear end, connected by an additional, 5 m long pipe (50 sqm). Six standpipes (70 cm height) with low-pressure-nozzles irrigate the area homogeneously. The open side of the U was located in downhill direction with a soil pit at the bottom. To measure the discharge of several runoff processes (overland flow, subsurface flow), a large soil pit of 3 m width was prepared with angled sheet metals in different depths. The effective experimental area is about 30 sqm as a consequence of two adjacent one meter wide also irrigated border lines which act similar to a double ring of an infiltrometer setup. The used irrigation schedule is adapted to the flood events in winter time of 1993 and 1995 with a sum of 120 mm precipitation in three days. Four 15-minute intervals of 10 mm precipitation were applied each day. Nevertheless, only sprinkling experiments are not suitable for identifying the key-parameters dominating the respective runoff processes. For this purpose, auxiliary field experiments and soil analysis are necessary. The conventional setup include tracer irrigation

  1. Impact of the rainfall pattern on synthetic pesticides and copper runoff from a vineyard catchment (United States)

    Payraudeau, Sylvain; Meite, Fatima; Wiegert, Charline; Imfeld, Gwenaël


    Runoff is a major process of pesticide transport from agricultural land to downstream aquatic ecosystems. The impact of rainfall characteristics on the transport of runoff-related pesticide is rarely evaluated at the catchment scale. Here, we evaluate the influence of rainfall pattern on the mobilization of synthetic pesticides and copper fungicides in runoff from a small vineyard catchment, both at the plot and catchment scales. During two vineyard growing seasons in 2015 and 2016 (from March to October), we monitored rainfall, runoff, and concentrations of copper and 20 fungicides and herbicides applied by winegrowers at the Rouffach vineyard catchment (France, Alsace; 42.5 ha). Rainfall data were recorded within the catchment while runoff measurement and flow-proportional water sampling were carried out at the outlet of the plot (1486 m2; 87.5 × 17 m) and the catchment. In total, discharges of the 14 runoff events were continuously monitored between March and October 2015 using bubbler flow modules combined with Venturi channels. Detailed and distributed dataset on pesticide applications were extracted from survey (copper formulations and type of pesticides, amount and application dates). Pools of copper and synthetic pesticides were quantified weekly in the topsoil (0-3 cm) by systematic sampling across the catchment. The concentrations of copper (10 dried soil) and synthetic pesticides (close to the quantification limit, i.e. 0.05 µg.L-1) available in the top soil for off-site transport largely differed over time. Between March and October, an accumulation of copper of 10% was observed in the top-soil while pesticide concentration decreased below the quantification limits after a few days or weeks following application, depending of the compounds. The average runoff generated at the plot scale was very low (0.13% ± 0.30). The maximum runoff reached 1.37% during the storm of July 22, 2015. Synthetic pesticides exported by runoff was less than 1‰ of

  2. Effect on runoff of rainfall redistribution by the impluvium-shaped canopy of banana cultivated on an Andosol with a high infiltration rate (United States)

    Cattan, P.; Ruy, S. M.; Cabidoche, Y.-M.; Findeling, A.; Desbois, P.; Charlier, J. B.


    SummaryRainfall redistribution by plant canopy, notably the water flow down the plant stem (stemflow), modifies the incident rainfall rate at the soil surface and may affect runoff generation. To test this hypothesis, we observed and measured runoff at the plant scale with banana cultivated on tropical Andosol. Observation of runoff by video and matrix potential monitoring showed that, during a runoff event, the matrix potential increased mainly downstream from the pseudostem in line with the slope, delimiting a saturated zone of runoff propagation that appeared on video monitoring. The results indicate that rainfall redistribution by plant canopy, i.e. stemflow and dripping areas, enhances runoff even on soil with a high infiltration rate (mean hydraulic conductivity at saturation Ks of 67 mm h -1). Data analysis of 40 runoff events showed that events were composed of at least two runoff phases characterized by an abrupt increase in runoff coefficient (RC) from 0.16 to 0.65 between the first and the second phase. The change in RC was related to rainfall rate. Also, between the first and the second runoff phase, the apparent infiltration rate at the plot scale decreased from 30 to 10 mm h -1. This was related to an increase in runoff contributing areas (RCA), from an estimated 18% to 93% of the plot surface. However, data analysis and model simulations showed that the increase in mean rainfall rate in RCA due to stemflow was not sufficient to account for large runoff volumes. Hence, one must also take into account the spatial variation of hydraulic conductivity at saturation with low values relative to RCA (estimation for the second runoff phase was 7.6 mm h -1). Moreover, simulation results implied Ks decreases with time. Finally, rainfall redistribution may have an impact at a larger scale. In banana plantations, the hydraulic connectivity of runoff areas can enhance the stemflow effect up to the plot scale. From this point of view, the two-compartment scheme we

  3. Rainfall-Runoff Dynamics Following Wildfire in Mountainous Headwater Catchments, Alberta, Canada. (United States)

    Williams, C.; Silins, U.; Bladon, K. D.; Martens, A. M.; Wagner, M. J.; Anderson, A.


    Severe wildfire has been shown to increase the magnitude and advance the timing of rainfall-generated stormflows across a range of hydro-climate regions. Loss of canopy and forest floor interception results in increased net precipitation which, along with the removal of forest organic layers and increased shorter-term water repellency, can result in strongly increased surface flow pathways and efficient routing of precipitation to streams. These abrupt changes have the potential to exacerbate flood impacts and alter the timing of runoff delivery to streams. However, while these effects are well documented in drier temperate mountain regions, changes in post-fire rainfall-runoff processes are less well understood in colder, more northern, snowfall dominated regimes. The objectives of this study are to explore longer term precipitation and runoff dynamics of burned and unburned (reference) watersheds from the Southern Rockies Watershed Project (SRWP) after the 2003 Lost Creek wildfire in the front-range Rocky Mountains of southwestern Alberta, Canada. Streamflow and precipitation were measured in 5 watersheds (3.7 - 10.4 km2) for 10 years following the wildfire (2005-2014). Measurements were collected from a dense network of meteorological and hydrometric stations. Stormflow volume, peak flow, time to peak flow, and total annual streamflow were compared between burned and reference streams. Event-based data were separated into 3 post-fire periods to detect changes in rainfall-runoff dynamics as vegetation regenerated. Despite large increases in post-fire snowpacks and net summer rainfall, rainfall-generated runoff from fire-affected watersheds was not large in comparison to that reported from more temperate snowfall-dominated Rocky Mountain hydrologic settings. High proportions of groundwater contribution to annual runoff regimes (as opposed to surface flow pathways) and groundwater storage were likely contributors to greater watershed resistance to wildfire effects

  4. Event soil loss, runoff and the Universal Soil Loss Equation family of models: A review (United States)

    Kinnell, P. I. A.


    SummaryThe Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) is the most widely used and misused prediction equation in the world. Although it was designed to predict long-term average annual soil loss, it has the capacity to predict event soil losses reasonably well at some geographic locations and not well at others. Its lack of capacity to predict event erosion is highly influenced by the fact the event rainfall-runoff factor used in the USLE and its revisions (RUSLE, RUSLE2) does not consider runoff explicitly. While including direct consideration of runoff in the event rainfall-runoff factor improves the capacity to predict event erosion when runoff is measured, that capacity is reduced by inaccurate runoff prediction methods. Even so, the predictions may be better than when the traditional event rainfall-runoff factor is used if the rainfall-runoff model used to predict runoff works reasonably well. Direct consideration of runoff in the rainfall-runoff factor may improve the ability of the model to account for seasonal effects. It also enhances the ability of the model to account for the spatial variations in soil loss on hillslopes which result from spatial variations in soil and vegetation. However, the USLE model will not provide a capacity to account for deposition taking place on concave hillslopes unless it is coupled with an appropriate sediment transport model, as in done in RUSLE2. Changing the basis of the event rainfall-runoff factor has consequences on a number of the other factors used in the model, in particular new values of the soil erodibility factor need to be determined. Using runoff values from cropped areas is necessary to account for differences in infiltration capacities between vegetated and tilled bare fallow areas, but requires re-evaluation of the crop factors.

  5. Modelling surface run-off and trends analysis over India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Rainfall, soil texture, land cover types, slope, etc., were processed and run-off modelling was done using the Natural Resources Conservation ... any development and planning including food pro- duction, flood control and effective ... technology based evaluation of land surface prop- erties at spatial and temporal scales are ...

  6. A coupled weather generator - rainfall-runoff approach on hourly time steps for flood risk analysis (United States)

    Winter, Benjamin; Schneeberger, Klaus; Dung Nguyen, Viet; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Huttenlau, Matthias; Merz, Bruno; Stötter, Johann


    The evaluation of potential monetary damage of flooding is an essential part of flood risk management. One possibility to estimate the monetary risk is to analyze long time series of observed flood events and their corresponding damages. In reality, however, only few flood events are documented. This limitation can be overcome by the generation of a set of synthetic, physically and spatial plausible flood events and subsequently the estimation of the resulting monetary damages. In the present work, a set of synthetic flood events is generated by a continuous rainfall-runoff simulation in combination with a coupled weather generator and temporal disaggregation procedure for the study area of Vorarlberg (Austria). Most flood risk studies focus on daily time steps, however, the mesoscale alpine study area is characterized by short concentration times, leading to large differences between daily mean and daily maximum discharge. Accordingly, an hourly time step is needed for the simulations. The hourly metrological input for the rainfall-runoff model is generated in a two-step approach. A synthetic daily dataset is generated by a multivariate and multisite weather generator and subsequently disaggregated to hourly time steps with a k-Nearest-Neighbor model. Following the event generation procedure, the negative consequences of flooding are analyzed. The corresponding flood damage for each synthetic event is estimated by combining the synthetic discharge at representative points of the river network with a loss probability relation for each community in the study area. The loss probability relation is based on exposure and susceptibility analyses on a single object basis (residential buildings) for certain return periods. For these impact analyses official inundation maps of the study area are used. Finally, by analyzing the total event time series of damages, the expected annual damage or losses associated with a certain probability of occurrence can be estimated for

  7. Rainfall, soil moisture, and runoff dynamics in New Mexico pinon-juniper woodland watersheds (United States)

    Carlos Ochoa; Alexander Fernald; Vincent Tidwell


    Clearing trees in pinon-juniper woodlands may increase grass cover and infiltration, leading to reduced surface runoff and erosion. This study was conducted to evaluate pinon-juniper hydrology conditions during baseline data collection in a paired watershed study. We instrumented six 1.0 to 1.3 ha experimental watersheds near Santa Fe, NM to collect rainfall, soil...

  8. Soil loss and run-off measurements form natural veld with a rainfall ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Basal cover highly significantly related to soil loss (r2 = 0,69), but slope had no significant relationship to soil loss and run- off. Keywords: afrikaans; basal cover; erosion; grass cover; grasses; orange free state; rainfall; run-off; slope; soil erosion; soil loss; south africa. Journal of the Grassland Society of Southern Africa.

  9. Rainfall-interception-evaporation-runoff relationships in a semi-arid catchment, northern Limpopo basin, Zimbabwe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Love, D.; Uhlenbrook, S.; Corzo Perez, G.; Twomlow, S.; Zaag, van der P.


    Characterizing the response of a catchment to rainfall, in terms of the production of runoff vs the interception, transpiration and evaporation of water, is the first important step in understanding water resource availability in a catchment. This is particularly important in small semi-arid


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. O. Adam


    Full Text Available The arid and semi-arid catchments in dry lands in general require a special effective management as the scarcity of resources and information which is needed to leverage studies and investigations is the common characteristic. Hydrology is one of the most important elements in the management of resources. Deep understanding of hydrological responses is the key towards better planning and land management. Surface runoff quantification of such ungauged semi-arid catchments considered among the important challenges. A 7586 km2 catchment under investigation is located in semi-arid region in central Sudan where mean annual rainfall is around 250 mm and represent the ultimate source for water supply. The objective is to parameterize hydrological characteristics of the catchment and estimate surface runoff using suitable methods and hydrological models that suit the nature of such ungauged catchments with scarce geospatial information. In order to produce spatial runoff estimations, satellite rainfall was used. Remote sensing and GIS were incorporated in the investigations and the generation of landcover and soil information. Five days rainfall event (50.2 mm was used for the SCS CN model which is considered the suitable for this catchment, as SCS curve number (CN method is widely used for estimating infiltration characteristics depending on the landcover and soil property. Runoff depths of 3.6, 15.7 and 29.7 mm were estimated for the three different Antecedent Moisture Conditions (AMC-I, AMC-II and AMC-III. The estimated runoff depths of AMCII and AMCIII indicate the possibility of having small artificial surface reservoirs that could provide water for domestic and small household agricultural use.

  11. Using natural Chinese zeolite to remove ammonium from rainfall runoff following urea fertilization of a paddy rice field. (United States)

    Wang, Xiao-Ling; Qiao, Bin; Li, Song-Min; Li, Jian-Sheng


    The potential of natural Chinese zeolite to remove ammonium from rainfall runoff following urea applications to a paddy rice field is assessed in this study. Laboratory batch kinetic and isotherm experiments were carried out first to investigate the ammonium adsorption capacity of the natural zeolite. Field experiments using zeolite adsorption barriers installed at drain outlets in a paddy rice field were also carried out during natural rainfall events to evaluate the barrier's dynamic removal capacity of ammonium. The results demonstrate that the adsorption kinetics are accurately described by the Elovich model, with a coefficient of determination (R (2)) ranging from 0.9705 to 0.9709, whereas the adsorption isotherm results indicate that the Langmuir-Freundlich model provides the best fit (R (2) = 0.992) for the equilibrium data. The field experiments show that both the flow rate and the barrier volume are important controls on ammonium removal from rainfall runoff. A low flow rate leads to a higher ammonium removal efficiency at the beginning of the tests, while a high flow rate leads to a higher quantity of ammonium adsorbed over the entire runoff process.

  12. Runoff of pyrethroid insecticides from concrete surfaces following simulated and natural rainfalls. (United States)

    Jiang, Weiying; Haver, Darren; Rust, Michael; Gan, Jay


    Intensive residential use of insecticides has resulted in their ubiquitous presence as contaminants in urban surface streams. For pest eradication, urban hard surfaces such as concrete are often directly treated with pesticides, and wind/water can also carry pesticides onto hard surfaces from surrounding areas. This study expanded on previous bench-scale studies by considering pesticide runoff caused by irrigation under dry weather conditions and rain during the wet season, and evaluated the effects of pesticide residence time on concrete, single versus recurring precipitations, precipitation intensity, and concrete surface conditions, on pesticide transferability to runoff water. Runoff from concrete 1 d after pesticide treatment contained high levels of bifenthrin (82 μg/L) and permethrin (5143 μg/L for cis and 5518 μg/L for trans), indicating the importance of preventing water contact on concrete after pesticide treatments. Although the runoff transferability quickly decreased as the pesticide residence time on concrete increased, detectable residues were still found in runoff water after 3 months (89 d) exposure to hot and dry summer conditions. ANOVA analysis showed that precipitation intensities and concrete surface conditions (i.e., acid wash, silicone seal, stamping, and addition of microsilica) did not significantly affect the pesticide transferability to runoff. For concrete slabs subjected to natural rainfalls during the winter wet season, pesticide levels in the runoff decreased as the time interval between pesticide application and the rain event increased. However, bifenthrin and permethrin were still detected at 0.15-0.17 and 0.75-1.15 μg/L in the rain runoff after 7 months (221 d) from the initial treatment. In addition, pesticide concentrations showed no decrease between the two rainfall events, suggesting that concrete surfaces contaminated by pesticides may act as a reservoir for pesticide residues, leading to sustained urban runoff

  13. Madagascar corals reveal a multidecadal signature of rainfall and river runoff since 1708

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. A. Grove


    Full Text Available Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures (SST influence rainfall variability on multidecadal and interdecadal timescales in concert with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO. Rainfall variations in locations such as Australia and North America are therefore linked to phase changes in the PDO. Furthermore, studies have suggested teleconnections exist between the western Indian Ocean and Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV, similar to those observed on interannual timescales related to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO. However, as instrumental records of rainfall are too short and sparse to confidently assess multidecadal climatic teleconnections, here we present four coral climate archives from Madagascar spanning up to the past 300 yr (1708–2008 to assess such decadal variability. Using spectral luminescence scanning to reconstruct past changes in river runoff, we identify significant multidecadal and interdecadal frequencies in the coral records, which before 1900 are coherent with Asian-based PDO reconstructions. This multidecadal relationship with the Asian-based PDO reconstructions points to an unidentified teleconnection mechanism that affects Madagascar rainfall/runoff, most likely triggered by multidecadal changes in North Pacific SST, influencing the Asian Monsoon circulation. In the 20th century we decouple human deforestation effects from rainfall-induced soil erosion by pairing luminescence with coral geochemistry. Positive PDO phases are associated with increased Indian Ocean temperatures and runoff/rainfall in eastern Madagascar, while precipitation in southern Africa and eastern Australia declines. Consequently, the negative PDO phase that started in 1998 may contribute to reduced rainfall over eastern Madagascar and increased precipitation in southern Africa and eastern Australia. We conclude that multidecadal rainfall variability in Madagascar and the western Indian Ocean needs to be

  14. Dynamics of monthly rainfall-runoff process at the Gota basin: A search for chaos (United States)

    Sivakumar, B.; Berndtsson, R.; Olsson, J.; Jinno, K.; Kawamura, A.

    Sivakumar et al. (2000a), by employing the correlation dimension method, provided preliminary evidence of the existence of chaos in the monthly rainfall-runoff process at the Gota basin in Sweden. The present study verifies and supports the earlier results and strengthens such evidence. The study analyses the monthly rainfall, runoff and runoff coefficient series using the nonlinear prediction method, and the presence of chaos is investigated through an inverse approach, i.e. identifying chaos from the results of the prediction. The presence of an optimal embedding dimension (the embedding dimension with the best prediction accuracy) for each of the three series indicates the existence of chaos in the rainfall-runoff process, providing additional support to the results obtained using the correlation dimension method. The reasonably good predictions achieved, particularly for the runoff series, suggest that the dynamics of the rainfall-runoff process could be understood from a chaotic perspective. The predictions are also consistent with the correlation dimension results obtained in the earlier study, i.e. higher prediction accuracy for series with a lower dimension and vice-versa, so that the correlation dimension method can indeed be used as a preliminary indicator of chaos. However, the optimal embedding dimensions obtained from the prediction method are considerably less than the minimum dimensions essential to embed the attractor, as obtained by the correlation dimension method. A possible explanation for this could be the presence of noise in the series, since the effects of noise at higher embedding dimensions could be significantly greater than that at lower embedding dimensions.

  15. Effects of land-cover change on rainfall-runoff relationships: a case study of the Yarkon-Ayalon watershed, Israel (United States)

    Ohana, Noa; Karnieli, Arnon; Egozi, Roey; Peeters, Aviva


    Temporal changes and spatial patterns are often studied by analyzing land-cover changes (LCCs) using spaceborne images. LCC is an important factor, affecting runoff regime within watersheds through processes such as urbanization, agricultural activities, quarries and afforestation. The objective of this research was to estimate the effects of 20 years of LCCs on rainfall-runoff relations in an extreme rainfall event, in a sub-basin scale. A Landsat TM-derived classification map was used as an input for the Kinematic Runoff and Erosion (KINEROS2) hydrological model along with precipitation data of an extreme rainfall event. Model calibration was performed by using total runoff volume data based on hydrometric measurements taken during this rainfall event. Validation of the model performance was conducted by comparing the model results to measured data in order to receive output accuracy estimation. A similar procedure was then used with a 2009 land-cover classification map, derived from a Landsat TM image, as an input to KINEROS2 model, along with the same precipitation data and calibration parameters, in order to understand the possible outcomes of a rainfall event of such magnitude and duration after 20 years of LCCs. The results show a slight increase in runoff volume and peak discharge values between the examined time periods as a result of LCCs. In addition, a strong relationship was spotted between vegetation cover along the six sub-basins and the runoff volume. The LCCs that had the most pronounced effects on runoff volumes were related to urbanization and vegetation removal.

  16. Performance of two predictive uncertainty estimation approaches for conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model: Bayesian Joint Inference and Hydrologic Uncertainty Post-processing (United States)

    Hernández-López, Mario R.; Romero-Cuéllar, Jonathan; Camilo Múnera-Estrada, Juan; Coccia, Gabriele; Francés, Félix


    It is noticeably important to emphasize the role of uncertainty particularly when the model forecasts are used to support decision-making and water management. This research compares two approaches for the evaluation of the predictive uncertainty in hydrological modeling. First approach is the Bayesian Joint Inference of hydrological and error models. Second approach is carried out through the Model Conditional Processor using the Truncated Normal Distribution in the transformed space. This comparison is focused on the predictive distribution reliability. The case study is applied to two basins included in the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX). These two basins, which have different hydrological complexity, are the French Broad River (North Carolina) and the Guadalupe River (Texas). The results indicate that generally, both approaches are able to provide similar predictive performances. However, the differences between them can arise in basins with complex hydrology (e.g. ephemeral basins). This is because obtained results with Bayesian Joint Inference are strongly dependent on the suitability of the hypothesized error model. Similarly, the results in the case of the Model Conditional Processor are mainly influenced by the selected model of tails or even by the selected full probability distribution model of the data in the real space, and by the definition of the Truncated Normal Distribution in the transformed space. In summary, the different hypotheses that the modeler choose on each of the two approaches are the main cause of the different results. This research also explores a proper combination of both methodologies which could be useful to achieve less biased hydrological parameter estimation. For this approach, firstly the predictive distribution is obtained through the Model Conditional Processor. Secondly, this predictive distribution is used to derive the corresponding additive error model which is employed for the hydrological parameter

  17. A generalized regional design storm rainfall model for Botswana ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Design of drainage and dam structures involves a full understanding of the duration, magnitude and volume of peak flood flows anticipated. For gauged catchments a number of established flood frequency models and rainfall-runoff models are used widely. However, most planned developments for bridge or dam or any ...

  18. A 507-year rainfall and runoff reconstruction for the Monsoonal North West, Australia derived from remote paleoclimate archives (United States)

    Verdon-Kidd, Danielle C.; Hancock, Gregory R.; Lowry, John B.


    The Monsoonal North West (MNW) region of Australia faces a number of challenges adapting to anthropogenic climate change. These have the potential to impact on a range of industries, including agricultural, pastoral, mining and tourism. However future changes to rainfall regimes remain uncertain due to the inability of Global Climate Models to adequately capture the tropical weather/climate processes that are known to be important for this region. Compounding this is the brevity of the instrumental rainfall record for the MNW, which is unlikely to represent the full range of climatic variability. One avenue for addressing this issue (the focus of this paper) is to identify sources of paleoclimate information that can be used to reconstruct a plausible pre-instrumental rainfall history for the MNW. Adopting this approach we find that, even in the absence of local sources of paleoclimate data at a suitable temporal resolution, remote paleoclimate records can resolve 25% of the annual variability observed in the instrumental rainfall record. Importantly, the 507-year rainfall reconstruction developed using the remote proxies displays longer and more intense wet and dry periods than observed during the most recent 100 years. For example, the maximum number of consecutive years of below (above) average rainfall is 90% (40%) higher in the rainfall reconstruction than during the instrumental period. Further, implications for flood and drought risk are studied via a simple GR1A rainfall runoff model, which again highlights the likelihood of extremes greater than that observed in the limited instrumental record, consistent with previous paleoclimate studies elsewhere in Australia. Importantly, this research can assist in informing climate related risks to infrastructure, agriculture and mining, and the method can readily be applied to other regions in the MNW and beyond.

  19. Transport of three veterinary antimicrobials from feedlot pens via simulated rainfall runoff. (United States)

    Sura, Srinivas; Degenhardt, Dani; Cessna, Allan J; Larney, Francis J; Olson, Andrew F; McAllister, Tim A


    Veterinary antimicrobials are introduced to wider environments by manure application to agricultural fields or through leaching or runoff from manure storage areas (feedlots, stockpiles, windrows, lagoons). Detected in manure, manure-treated soils, and surface and ground water near intensive cattle feeding operations, there is a concern that environmental contamination by these chemicals may promote the development of antimicrobial resistance in bacteria. Surface runoff and leaching appear to be major transport pathways by which veterinary antimicrobials eventually contaminate surface and ground water, respectively. A study was conducted to investigate the transport of three veterinary antimicrobials (chlortetracycline, sulfamethazine, tylosin), commonly used in beef cattle production, in simulated rainfall runoff from feedlot pens. Mean concentrations of veterinary antimicrobials were 1.4 to 3.5 times higher in surface material from bedding vs. non-bedding pen areas. Runoff rates and volumetric runoff coefficients were similar across all treatments but both were significantly higher from non-bedding (0.53Lmin(-1); 0.27) than bedding areas (0.40Lmin(-1); 0.19). In keeping with concentrations in pen surface material, mean concentrations of veterinary antimicrobials were 1.4 to 2.5 times higher in runoff generated from bedding vs. non-bedding pen areas. Water solubility and sorption coefficient of antimicrobials played a role in their transport in runoff. Estimated amounts of chlortetracycline, sulfamethazine, and tylosin that could potentially be transported to the feedlot catch basin during a one in 100-year precipitation event were 1.3 to 3.6ghead(-1), 1.9ghead(-1), and 0.2ghead(-1), respectively. This study demonstrates the magnitude of veterinary antimicrobial transport in feedlot pen runoff and supports the necessity of catch basins for runoff containment within feedlots. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. The effects of rainfall regimes and terracing on runoff and erosion in the Three Gorges area, China. (United States)

    Xu, Qin-Xue; Wu, Pan; Dai, Jun-Feng; Wang, Tian-Wei; Li, Zhao-Xia; Cai, Chong-Fa; Shi, Zhi-Hua


    Changes in natural rainfall regimes have taken place and are expected to become more pronounced in future decades. These changes are also likely to be accompanied by changes in crop management practices. The main purpose of this study was to analyze runoff and soil loss in relation to rainfall regimes and terracing in the Three Gorges area, China. Based on 10 years of field observation and k-mean clusters, 101 rainfall events were grouped into three rainfall regimes. Rainfall regime I was the group of events with strong rainfall intensity, high frequency, and short duration. Rainfall regime III consisted of events with low intensity, long duration, and high rainfall amount. Rainfall regime II was the aggregation of events of high intensity and amount, and less frequent occurrence. The results showed that event runoff coefficients were not significantly different among rainfall regimes. However, the average soil erosion rates in rainfall regimes I and II were significantly higher than that in regime III. The average erosion rates under rainfall regimes I, II, and III were 21.6, 39.7, and 9.8 g m -2 , respectively. The effect of rainfall regime on soil erosion also was changed by terracing. On unterraced cropland, soil erosion rate in rainfall regime I is significantly higher than that in regime III. However, the situation did not exist in unterraced orchard. Terracing significantly reduced runoff and soil erosion, and compensated the effects of rainfall regime on soil erosion, which indicated that runoff and erosion in terraced system may be little influenced by climate change. Based on these results, it was suggested more attention should be paid to the timing of rainfall events in relation to crop development and the high erosion on unterraced citrus orchard to control soil erosion in this area.

  1. The Sensitivity Analysis of Parameters of Urban Runoff Models due to Variations of Basin Characteristics(I) : Development of Sensitivity Analysis Method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seo, Kyu Woo [Dongeui University, Pusan (Korea); Cho, Won Cheol [Yonsei University, Seoul (Korea)


    In this study, the new dimensionless values were defined and proposed to determine the parameters of urban runoff models based on the relative sensitivity analysis. Also, the sensitivity characteristics of each parameter were investigated. In order to analyze the parameter sensitivities of each model, total runoff ratio, peak runoff ratio, runoff sensitivity ratio, sensitivity ratio of total runoff, and sensitivity ratio of peak runoff were defined. Total runoff ratio(Q{sub TR}) = Total runoff of corresponding step / Maximum total runoff. Peak runoff ratio(Q{sub PR}) = Peak runoff corresponding step / Maximum peak runoff. Runoff sensitivity ratio(Q{sub SR}) = Q{sub TR} / Q{sub PR}. And for estimation of sensitivity ratios based on the scale of basin area, rainfall distributions and rainfall durations in ILLUDAS and SWMM, the reasonable ranges of parameters were proposed. (author). 21 refs., 2 tabs., 2 figs.

  2. Predicting shifts in rainfall-runoff partitioning during multiyear drought: Roles of dry period and catchment characteristics (United States)

    Saft, Margarita; Peel, Murray C.; Western, Andrew W.; Zhang, Lu


    While the majority of hydrological prediction methods assume that observed interannual variability explores the full range of catchment response dynamics, recent cases of prolonged climate drying suggest otherwise. During the ˜decade-long Millennium drought in south-eastern Australia significant shifts in hydrologic behavior were reported. Catchment rainfall-runoff partitioning changed from what was previously encountered during shorter droughts, with significantly less runoff than expected occurring in many catchments. In this article, we investigate the variability in the magnitude of shift in rainfall-runoff partitioning observed during the Millennium drought. We re-evaluate a large range of factors suggested to be responsible for the additional runoff reductions. Our results suggest that the shifts were mostly influenced by catchment characteristics related to predrought climate (aridity index and rainfall seasonality) and soil and groundwater storage dynamics (predrought interannual variability of groundwater storage and mean solum thickness). The shifts were amplified by seasonal rainfall changes during the drought (spring rainfall deficits). We discuss the physical mechanisms that are likely to be associated with these factors. Our results confirm that shifts in the annual rainfall-runoff relationship represent changes in internal catchment functioning, and emphasize the importance of cumulative multiyear changes in the catchment storage for runoff generation. Prolonged drying in some regions can be expected in the future, and our results provide an indication of which catchments characteristics are associated with catchments more susceptible to a shift in their runoff response behavior.

  3. Responses of hydrochemical inorganic ions in the rainfall-runoff processes of the experimental catchments and its significance for tracing (United States)

    Gu, W.-Z.; Lu, J.-J.; Zhao, X.; Peters, N.E.


    Aimed at the rainfall-runoff tracing using inorganic ions, the experimental study is conducted in the Chuzhou Hydrology Laboratory with special designed experimental catchments, lysimeters, etc. The various runoff components including the surface runoff, interflow from the unsaturated zone and the groundwater flow from saturated zone were monitored hydrometrically. Hydrochemical inorganic ions including Na+, K+, Ca2+, Mg2+, Cl-, SO42-, HCO3- + CO32-, NO3-, F-, NH4-, PO42-, SiO2 and, pH, EC, 18O were measured within a one month period for all processes of rainfall, various runoff components and groundwater within the catchment from 17 boreholes distributed in the Hydrohill Catchment, few soil water samples were also included. The results show that: (a) all the runoff components are distinctly identifiable from both the relationships of Ca2+ versus Cl-/SO42-, EC versus Na+/(Na+ + Ca2+) and, from most inorganic ions individually; (b) the variation of inorganic ions in surface runoff is the biggest than that in other flow components; (c) most ions has its lowermost concentration in rainfall process but it increases as the generation depths of runoff components increased; (d) quantitatively, ion processes of rainfall and groundwater flow display as two end members of that of other runoff components; and (e) the 18O processes of rainfall and runoff components show some correlation with that of inorganic ions. The results also show that the rainfall input is not always the main source of inorganic ions of various runoff outputs due to the process of infiltration and dissolution resulted from the pre-event processes. The amount and sources of Cl- of runoff components with various generation mechanisms challenge the current method of groundwater recharge estimation using Cl-.

  4. Short-Term Forecasting of Urban Storm Water Runoff in Real-Time using Extrapolated Radar Rainfall Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Rasmussen, Michael R.


    Model based short-term forecasting of urban storm water runoff can be applied in realtime control of drainage systems in order to optimize system capacity during rain and minimize combined sewer overflows, improve wastewater treatment or activate alarms if local flooding is impending. A novel...... online system, which forecasts flows and water levels in real-time with inputs from extrapolated radar rainfall data, has been developed. The fully distributed urban drainage model includes auto-calibration using online in-sewer measurements which is seen to improve forecast skills significantly...

  5. Rainfall-runoff of anthropogenic waste indicators from agricultural fields applied with municipal biosolids (United States)

    Gray, James L.; Borch, Thomas; Furlong, Edward T.; Davis, Jessica; Yager, Tracy; Yang, Yun-Ya; Kolpin, Dana W.


    The presence of anthropogenic contaminants such as antimicrobials, flame-retardants, and plasticizers in runoff from agricultural fields applied with municipal biosolids may pose a potential threat to the environment. This study assesses the potential for rainfall-induced runoff of 69 anthropogenic waste indicators (AWIs), widely found in household and industrial products, from biosolids amended field plots. The agricultural field containing the test plots was treated with biosolids for the first time immediately prior to this study. AWIs present in soil and biosolids were isolated by continuous liquid-liquid extraction and analyzed by full-scan gas chromatography/mass spectrometry. Results for 18 AWIs were not evaluated due to their presence in field blank QC samples, and another 34 did not have sufficient detection frequency in samples to analyze trends in data. A total of 17 AWIs, including 4-nonylphenol, triclosan, and tris(2-butoxyethyl)phosphate, were present in runoff with acceptable data quality and frequency for subsequent interpretation. Runoff samples were collected 5 days prior to and 1, 9, and 35 days after biosolids application. Of the 17 AWIs considered, 14 were not detected in pre-application samples, or their concentrations were much smaller than in the sample collected one day after application. A range of trends was observed for individual AWI concentrations (typically from 0.1 to 10 μg/L) over the course of the study, depending on the combination of partitioning and degradation mechanisms affecting each compound most strongly. Overall, these results indicate that rainfall can mobilize anthropogenic contaminants from biosolids-amended agricultural fields, directly to surface waters and redistribute them to terrestrial sites away from the point of application via runoff. For 14 of 17 compounds examined, the potential for runoff remobilization during rainstorms persists even after three 100-year rainstorm-equivalent simulations and the

  6. Flood Peak Estimation Using Rainfall Run off Models | Matondo ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The design of hydraulic structures such as road culverts, road bridges and dam spillways requires the determination of the design food peak. Two approaches are available in the determination of the design flood peak and these are: flood frequency analysis and rainfall runoff models. Flood frequency analysis requires a ...

  7. Computational Intelligence in Rainfall-Runoff Modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Vos, N.J.


    The transformation from precipitation over a river basin to river streamflow is the result of many interacting processes which manifest themselves at various scales of time and space. The resulting complexity of hydrological systems, and the difficulty to properly and quantitatively express the

  8. A systematic assessment of watershed-scale nonpoint source pollution during rainfall-runoff events in the Miyun Reservoir watershed. (United States)

    Qiu, Jiali; Shen, Zhenyao; Wei, Guoyuan; Wang, Guobo; Xie, Hui; Lv, Guanping


    The assessment of peak flow rate, total runoff volume, and pollutant loads during rainfall process are very important for the watershed management and the ecological restoration of aquatic environment. Real-time measurements of rainfall-runoff and pollutant loads are always the most reliable approach but are difficult to carry out at all desired location in the watersheds considering the large consumption of material and financial resources. An integrated environmental modeling approach for the estimation of flash streamflow that combines the various hydrological and quality processes during rainstorms within the agricultural watersheds is essential to develop targeted management strategies for the endangered drinking water. This study applied the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) to simulate the spatial and temporal variation in hydrological processes and pollutant transport processes during rainstorm events in the Miyun Reservoir watershed, a drinking water resource area in Beijing. The model performance indicators ensured the acceptable applicability of the HSPF model to simulate flow and pollutant loads in the studied watershed and to establish a relationship between land use and the parameter values. The proportion of soil and land use was then identified as the influencing factors of the pollution intensities. The results indicated that the flush concentrations were much higher than those observed during normal flow periods and considerably exceeded the limits of Class III Environmental Quality Standards for Surface Water (GB3838-2002) for the secondary protection zones of the drinking water resource in China. Agricultural land and leached cinnamon soils were identified as the key sources of sediment, nutrients, and fecal coliforms. Precipitation volume was identified as a driving factor that determined the amount of runoff and pollutant loads during rainfall processes. These results are useful to improve the streamflow predictions, provide

  9. Influences of grass and moss on runoff and sediment yield on sloped loess surfaces under simulated rainfall (United States)

    Pan, Chengzhong; Shangguan, Zhouping; Lei, Tingwu


    It is important to evaluate the impacts of grasses on soil erosion process so as to use them effectively to control soil and water losses on the Loess Plateau. Laboratory-simulated rainfall experiments were conducted to investigate the runoff and sediment processes on sloped loess surfaces with and without the aboveground parts of grasses and moss (GAM: grass and moss; NGAM: no grass and moss) under slope gradients of 5°, 10°, 15°, 20°, 25° and 30°. The results show that runoff from GAM and NGAM plots increased up to a slope gradient of 10° and decreased thereafter, whereas the runoff coefficients increased with gradient. The average runoff rates and runoff coefficients of NGAM plots were less than those of GAM plots except for the 5° slope. This behaviour may be due to the reduction in water infiltration under moss. The difference between GAM and NGAM plots in average runoff rates varied from 1.4 to 8%. At the same gradients, NGAM plots yielded significantly ( = 0.05) more sediment than GAM plots. Average sediment deliveries for different slopes varied from 0.119 to 3.794 g m-2 min-1 from GAM plots, and from 0.765 to 16.128 g m-2 min-1 from NGAM plots. Sediment yields from GAM plots were reduced by 45 to 85%, compared with those from the NGAM plots. Plots at 30° yielded significantly higher sediments than at the other gradients. Total sediments S increased with slope gradients G in a linear form, i.e. S = 9.25G - 39.6 with R2 = 0.77*, for the GAM plots, and in an exponential model, i.e. S = 40.4 exp(0.1042G) with R2 = 0.93**, for the NGAM plots. In all cases, sediment deliveries decreased with time, and reached a relative steady state at a rainfall duration of 14 min. Compared with NGAM plots, the final percentage reductions in sediment delivery from GAM plots were higher than those at the initial time of rainfall at all slopes. Copyright

  10. Scale effects in Hortonian surface runoff on agricultural slopes in West Africa: Field data and models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Giesen, van de N.; Stomph, T.J.; Ajayi, A.E.; Bagayoko, F.


    This article provides an overview of both experimental and modeling research carried out over the past 15 years by the authors addressing scaling effects in Hortonian surface runoff. Hortonian surface runoff occurs when rainfall intensity exceeds infiltration capacity of the soil. At three sites in

  11. Effects of rainfall intensity and slope gradient on runoff and sediment yield characteristics of bare loess soil. (United States)

    Wu, Lei; Peng, Mengling; Qiao, Shanshan; Ma, Xiao-Yi


    Soil erosion is a universal phenomenon on the Loess Plateau but it exhibits complex and typical mechanism which makes it difficult to understand soil loss laws on slopes. We design artificial simulated rainfall experiments including six rainfall intensities (45, 60, 75, 90, 105, 120 mm/h) and five slopes (5°, 10°, 15°, 20°, 25°) to reveal the fundamental changing trends of runoff and sediment yield on bare loess soil. Here, we show that the runoff yield within the initial 15 min increased rapidly and its trend gradually became stable. Trends of sediment yield under different rainfall intensities are various. The linear correlation between runoff and rainfall intensity is obvious for different slopes, but the correlations between sediment yield and rainfall intensity are weak. Runoff and sediment yield on the slope surface both presents an increasing trend when the rainfall intensity increases from 45 mm/h to 120 mm/h, but the increasing trend of runoff yield is higher than that of sediment yield. The sediment yield also has an overall increasing trend when the slope changes from 5° to 25°, but the trend of runoff yield is not obvious. Our results may provide data support and underlying insights needed to guide the management of soil conservation planning on the Loess Plateau.

  12. Effect of soil surface roughness on infiltration water, ponding and runoff on tilled soils under rainfall simulation experiments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhao, Longshan; Hou, Rui; Wu, Faqi; Keesstra, Saskia


    Agriculture has a large effect on the properties of the soil and with that on soil hydrology. The partitioning of rainfall into infiltration and runoff is relevant to understand runoff generation, infiltration and soil erosion. Tillage manages soil surface properties and generates soil surface

  13. Sensitivity-Based Modeling of Evaluating Surface Runoff and Sediment Load using Digital and Analog Mechanisms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olotu Yahaya


    Full Text Available Analyses of runoff- sediment measurement and evaluation using automated and convectional runoff-meters was carried out at Meteorological and Hydrological Station of Auchi Polytechnic, Auchi using two runoff plots (ABCDa and EFGHm of area 2m 2 each, depth 0.26 m and driven into the soil to the depth of 0.13m. Runoff depths and intensities were measured from each of the positioned runoff plot. Automated runoff-meter has a measuring accuracy of ±0.001l/±0.025 mm and rainfall depth-intensity was measured using tipping-bucket rainguage during the period of 14-month of experimentation. Minimum and maximum rainfall depths of 1.2 and 190.3 mm correspond to measured runoff depths (MRo of 0.0 mm for both measurement approaches and 60.4 mm and 48.9 mm respectively. Automated runoffmeter provides precise, accurate and instantaneous result over the convectional measurement of surface runoff. Runoff measuring accuracy for automated runoff-meter from the plot (ABCDa produces R 2 = 0.99; while R 2 = 0.96 for manual evaluation in plot (EFGHm. WEPP and SWAT models were used to simulate the obtained hydrological variables from the applied measurement mechanisms. The outputs of sensitivity simulation analysis indicate that data from automated measuring systems gives a better modelling index and such could be used for running robust runoff-sediment predictive modelling technique under different reservoir sedimentation and water management scenarios.

  14. Assessment of the use of remotely sensed rainfall products for runoff ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The main objective of this research is to compare the performance of SWAT model using rainfall input data from remotely sensed and ground measured data for Gilgel abbay catchment. Based on the results obtained, it can be said that SWAT model yields good results for the satellite rainfall input data when compared to in ...

  15. Assessing the detail needed to capture rainfall-runoff dynamics with physics-based hydrologic response simulation (United States)

    Mirus, Benjamin B.; Ebel, Brian A.; Heppner, Christopher S.; Loague, Keith


    Concept development simulation with distributed, physics-based models provides a quantitative approach for investigating runoff generation processes across environmental conditions. Disparities within data sets employed to design and parameterize boundary value problems used in heuristic simulation inevitably introduce various levels of bias. The objective was to evaluate the impact of boundary value problem complexity on process representation for different runoff generation mechanisms. The comprehensive physics-based hydrologic response model InHM has been employed to generate base case simulations for four well-characterized catchments. The C3 and CB catchments are located within steep, forested environments dominated by subsurface stormflow; the TW and R5 catchments are located in gently sloping rangeland environments dominated by Dunne and Horton overland flows. Observational details are well captured within all four of the base case simulations, but the characterization of soil depth, permeability, rainfall intensity, and evapotranspiration differs for each. These differences are investigated through the conversion of each base case into a reduced case scenario, all sharing the same level of complexity. Evaluation of how individual boundary value problem characteristics impact simulated runoff generation processes is facilitated by quantitative analysis of integrated and distributed responses at high spatial and temporal resolution. Generally, the base case reduction causes moderate changes in discharge and runoff patterns, with the dominant process remaining unchanged. Moderate differences between the base and reduced cases highlight the importance of detailed field observations for parameterizing and evaluating physics-based models. Overall, similarities between the base and reduced cases indicate that the simpler boundary value problems may be useful for concept development simulation to investigate fundamental controls on the spectrum of runoff generation

  16. Stormwater Runoff Pollutant Loading Distributions and Their Correlation with Rainfall and Catchment Characteristics in a Rapidly Industrialized City (United States)

    Li, Dongya; Wan, Jinquan; Ma, Yongwen; Wang, Yan; Huang, Mingzhi; Chen, Yangmei


    Fast urbanization and industrialization in developing countries result in significant stormwater runoff pollution, due to drastic changes in land-use, from rural to urban. A three-year study on the stormwater runoff pollutant loading distributions of industrial, parking lot and mixed commercial and residential catchments was conducted in the Tongsha reservoir watershed of Dongguan city, a typical, rapidly industrialized urban area in China. This study presents the changes in concentration during rainfall events, event mean concentrations (EMCs) and event pollution loads per unit area (EPLs). The first flush criterion, namely the mass first flush ratio (MFFn), was used to identify the first flush effects. The impacts of rainfall and catchment characterization on EMCs and pollutant loads percentage transported by the first 40% of runoff volume (FF40) were evaluated. The results indicated that the pollutant wash-off process of runoff during the rainfall events has significant temporal and spatial variations. The mean rainfall intensity (I), the impervious rate (IMR) and max 5-min intensity (Imax5) are the critical parameters of EMCs, while Imax5, antecedent dry days (ADD) and rainfall depth (RD) are the critical parameters of FF40. Intercepting the first 40% of runoff volume can remove 55% of TSS load, 53% of COD load, 58% of TN load, and 61% of TP load, respectively, according to all the storm events. These results may be helpful in mitigating stormwater runoff pollution for many other urban areas in developing countries. PMID:25774922

  17. Anomaly in the rainfall-runoff behaviour of the Meuse catchment. Climate, land-use, or land-use management?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Fenicia


    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to investigate the time variability of catchment characteristics in the Meuse basin through its effect on catchment response. The approach uses a conceptual model to represent rainfall-runoff behaviour of this catchment, and evaluates possible time-dependence of model parameters. The main hypothesis is that conceptual model parameters, although not measurable quantities, are representative of specific catchment attributes (e.g. geology, land-use, land management, topography. Hence, we assume that eventual trends in model parameters are representative of catchment attributes that may have changed over time. The available hydrological record involves ninety years of data, starting in 1911. During this period the Meuse catchment has undergone significant modifications. The catchment structural modifications, although documented, are not available as "hard-data". Hence, our results should be considered as "plausible hypotheses". The main motivation of this work is the "anomaly" found in the rainfall runoff behaviour of the Meuse basin, where ninety years of rainfall-runoff simulations show a consistent overestimation of the runoff in the period between 1930 and 1965. Different authors have debated possible causes for the "anomaly", including climatic variability, land-use change and data errors. None of the authors considered the way in which the land is used by for instance agricultural and forestry practises. This aspect influenced the model design, which has been configured to account for different evaporation demand of growing forest. As a result of our analysis, we conclude that the lag time of the catchment has decreased significantly over time, which we attribute to more intensive drainage and river training works. Furthermore, we hypothesise that forest rotation has had a significant impact on the evaporation of the catchment. These results contrast with previous studies, where the effect of land-use change on

  18. The Sensitivity Analysis of Parameters of Urban Runoff Models due to Variations of Basin Characteristics (II) : Model Calibration and Application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seo, Kyu Woo [Dongeui University, Pusan (Korea); Heo, Jun Haeng [Yonsei University, Seoul (Korea)


    In this study, ILLUDAS and SWMM were applied for Dongsucheon basin, Inchon and Test basin, Chongju. The main parameters(II, IA, IS, SI, SR, SS) which are included in those of each model depending on runoff results were determined, and sensitivity ratios were estimated in order to evaluate and compare the characteristics of each model. Total runoff ratio for almost parameters turned out to have a linear relation to the rainfall durations and the scale of basin area but have nothing to do with rainfall distributions. Sensitivity ratios turned out to have a linear relation for the infiltration and soil parameters of ILLUDAS as well as all parameters of SWMM. Runoff sensitivity ratios for almost parameters were smaller than 1.0 because the impacts of total runoff were bigger than those of peak runoff. And runoff sensitivity ratio was equal to 1.0 for the roughness coefficient of SWMM. Total runoff ratio, peak runoff ratio and runoff sensitivity ratio for the selected parameters of those models were presented as the tables and figures according to the scale of basin area, rainfall durations such as 60, 120, and 180 minutes and Huff's fourth quartiles rainfall distributions. (author). 16 refs., 8 tabs., 20 figs.

  19. Cascading rainfall uncertainty into flood inundation impact models (United States)

    Souvignet, Maxime; Freer, Jim E.; de Almeida, Gustavo A. M.; Coxon, Gemma; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Champion, Adrian J.; Cloke, Hannah L.; Bates, Paul D.


    Observed and numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulated precipitation products typically show differences in their spatial and temporal distribution. These differences can considerably influence the ability to predict hydrological responses. For flood inundation impact studies, as in forecast situations, an atmospheric-hydrologic-hydraulic model chain is needed to quantify the extent of flood risk. Uncertainties cascaded through the model chain are seldom explored, and more importantly, how potential input uncertainties propagate through this cascade, and how best to approach this, is still poorly understood. This requires a combination of modelling capabilities, the non-linear transformation of rainfall to river flow using rainfall-runoff models, and finally the hydraulic flood wave propagation based on the runoff predictions. Improving the characterisation of uncertainty, and what is important to include, in each component is important for quantifying impacts and understanding flood risk for different return periods. In this paper, we propose to address this issue by i) exploring the effects of errors in rainfall on inundation predictive capacity within an uncertainty framework by testing inundation uncertainty against different comparable meteorological conditions (i.e. using different rainfall products) and ii) testing different techniques to cascade uncertainties (e.g. bootstrapping, PPU envelope) within the GLUE (generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation) framework. Our method cascades rainfall uncertainties into multiple rainfall-runoff model structures using the Framework for Understanding Structural Errors (FUSE). The resultant prediction uncertainties in upstream discharge provide uncertain boundary conditions that are cascaded into a simplified shallow water hydraulic model (LISFLOOD-FP). Rainfall data captured by three different measurement techniques - rain gauges, gridded radar data and numerical weather predictions (NWP) models are evaluated

  20. An urban runoff model designed to inform stormwater management decisions. (United States)

    Beck, Nicole G; Conley, Gary; Kanner, Lisa; Mathias, Margaret


    We present an urban runoff model designed for stormwater managers to quantify runoff reduction benefits of mitigation actions that has lower input data and user expertise requirements than most commonly used models. The stormwater tool to estimate load reductions (TELR) employs a semi-distributed approach, where landscape characteristics and process representation are spatially-lumped within urban catchments on the order of 100 acres (40 ha). Hydrologic computations use a set of metrics that describe a 30-year rainfall distribution, combined with well-tested algorithms for rainfall-runoff transformation and routing to generate average annual runoff estimates for each catchment. User inputs include the locations and specifications for a range of structural best management practice (BMP) types. The model was tested in a set of urban catchments within the Lake Tahoe Basin of California, USA, where modeled annual flows matched that of the observed flows within 18% relative error for 5 of the 6 catchments and had good regional performance for a suite of performance metrics. Comparisons with continuous simulation models showed an average of 3% difference from TELR predicted runoff for a range of hypothetical urban catchments. The model usually identified the dominant BMP outflow components within 5% relative error of event-based measured flow data and simulated the correct proportionality between outflow components. TELR has been implemented as a web-based platform for use by municipal stormwater managers to inform prioritization, report program benefits and meet regulatory reporting requirements ( Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  1. Performance of bias corrected MPEG rainfall estimate for rainfall-runoff simulation in the upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia (United States)

    Worqlul, Abeyou W.; Ayana, Essayas K.; Maathuis, Ben H. P.; MacAlister, Charlotte; Philpot, William D.; Osorio Leyton, Javier M.; Steenhuis, Tammo S.


    In many developing countries and remote areas of important ecosystems, good quality precipitation data are neither available nor readily accessible. Satellite observations and processing algorithms are being extensively used to produce satellite rainfall products (SREs). Nevertheless, these products are prone to systematic errors and need extensive validation before to be usable for streamflow simulations. In this study, we investigated and corrected the bias of Multi-Sensor Precipitation Estimate-Geostationary (MPEG) data. The corrected MPEG dataset was used as input to a semi-distributed hydrological model Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) for simulation of discharge of the Gilgel Abay and Gumara watersheds in the Upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia. The result indicated that the MPEG satellite rainfall captured 81% and 78% of the gauged rainfall variability with a consistent bias of underestimating the gauged rainfall by 60%. A linear bias correction applied significantly reduced the bias while maintaining the coefficient of correlation. The simulated flow using bias corrected MPEG SRE resulted in a simulated flow comparable to the gauge rainfall for both watersheds. The study indicated the potential of MPEG SRE in water budget studies after applying a linear bias correction.

  2. Effect of rainfall timing and tillage on the transport of steroid hormones in runoff from manure amended row crop fields. (United States)

    Biswas, Sagor; Kranz, William L; Shapiro, Charles A; Snow, Daniel D; Bartelt-Hunt, Shannon L; Mamo, Mitiku; Tarkalson, David D; Zhang, Tian C; Shelton, David P; van Donk, Simon J; Mader, Terry L


    Runoff generated from livestock manure amended row crop fields is one of the major pathways of hormone transport to the aquatic environment. The study determined the effects of manure handling, tillage methods, and rainfall timing on the occurrence and transport of steroid hormones in runoff from the row crop field. Stockpiled and composted manure from hormone treated and untreated animals were applied to test plots and subjected to two rainfall simulation events 30days apart. During the two rainfall simulation events, detection of any steroid hormone or metabolites was identified in 8-86% of runoff samples from any tillage and manure treatment. The most commonly detected hormones were 17β-estradiol, estrone, estriol, testosterone, and α-zearalenol at concentrations ranging up to 100-200ngL -1 . Considering the maximum detected concentrations in runoff, no more than 10% of the applied hormone can be transported through the dissolved phase of runoff. Results from the study indicate that hormones can persist in soils receiving livestock manure over an extended period of time and the dissolved phase of hormone in runoff is not the preferred pathway of transport from the manure applied fields irrespective of tillage treatments and timing of rainfall. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Modelling monthly runoff generation processes following land use changes: groundwater–surface runoff interactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Bari


    Full Text Available A conceptual water balance model is presented to represent changes in monthly water balance following land use changes. Monthly rainfall–runoff, groundwater and soil moisture data from four experimental catchments in Western Australia have been analysed. Two of these catchments, 'Ernies' (control, fully forested and 'Lemon' (54% cleared are in a zone of mean annual rainfall of 725 mm, while 'Salmon' (control, fully forested and 'Wights' (100% cleared are in a zone with mean annual rainfall of 1125 mm. At the Salmon forested control catchment, streamflow comprises surface runoff, base flow and interflow components. In the Wights catchment, cleared of native forest for pasture development, all three components increased, groundwater levels rose significantly and stream zone saturated area increased from 1% to 15% of the catchment area. It took seven years after clearing for the rainfall–runoff generation process to stabilise in 1984. At the Ernies forested control catchment, the permanent groundwater system is 20 m below the stream bed and so does not contribute to streamflow. Following partial clearing of forest in the Lemon catchment, groundwater rose steadily and reached the stream bed by 1987. The streamflow increased in two phases: (i immediately after clearing due to reduced evapotranspiration, and (ii through an increase in the groundwater-induced stream zone saturated area after 1987. After analysing all the data available, a conceptual monthly model was created, comprising four inter-connecting stores: (i an upper zone unsaturated store, (ii a transient stream zone store, (ii a lower zone unsaturated store and (iv a saturated groundwater store. Data such as rooting depth, Leaf Area Index, soil porosity, profile thickness, depth to groundwater, stream length and surface slope were incorporated into the model as a priori defined attributes. The catchment average values for different stores were determined through matching observed and

  4. A glacier runoff extension to the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (United States)

    Van Beusekom, Ashley; Viger, Roland


    A module to simulate glacier runoff, PRMSglacier, was added to PRMS (Precipitation Runoff Modeling System), a distributed-parameter, physical-process hydrological simulation code. The extension does not require extensive on-glacier measurements or computational expense but still relies on physical principles over empirical relations as much as is feasible while maintaining model usability. PRMSglacier is validated on two basins in Alaska, Wolverine, and Gulkana Glacier basin, which have been studied since 1966 and have a substantial amount of data with which to test model performance over a long period of time covering a wide range of climatic and hydrologic conditions. When error in field measurements is considered, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies of streamflow are 0.87 and 0.86, the absolute bias fractions of the winter mass balance simulations are 0.10 and 0.08, and the absolute bias fractions of the summer mass balances are 0.01 and 0.03, all computed over 42 years for the Wolverine and Gulkana Glacier basins, respectively. Without taking into account measurement error, the values are still within the range achieved by the more computationally expensive codes tested over shorter time periods.

  5. Impacts of water quality variation and rainfall runoff on Jinpen Reservoir, in Northwest China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zi-zhen Zhou


    Full Text Available The seasonal variation characteristics of the water quality of the Jinpen Reservoir and the impacts of rainfall runoff on the reservoir were investigated. Water quality monitoring results indicated that, during the stable stratification period, the maximum concentrations of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, ammonia nitrogen, total organic carbon, iron ion, and manganese ion in the water at the reservoir bottom on September 6 reached 2.5 mg/L, 0.12 mg/L, 0.58 mg/L, 3.2 mg/L, 0.97 mg/L, and 0.32 mg/L, respectively. Only heavy storm runoff can affect the main reservoir and cause the water quality to seriously deteriorate. During heavy storms, the stratification of the reservoir was destroyed, and the reservoir water quality consequently deteriorated due to the high-turbidity particulate phosphorus and organic matter in runoff. The turbidity and concentrations of total phosphorus and total organic carbon in the main reservoir increased to 265 NTU, 0.224 mg/L, and 3.9 mg/L, respectively. Potential methods of dealing with the water problems in the Jinpen Reservoir are proposed. Both in stratification and in storm periods, the use of measures such as adjusting intake height, storing clean water, and releasing turbid flow can be helpful to safeguarding the quality of water supplied to the water treatment plants.

  6. Rainfall and runoff water quality of the Pang and Lambourn, tributaries of the River Thames, south-eastern England

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Neal


    Full Text Available The water quality of rainfall and runoff is described for two catchments of two tributaries of the River Thames, the Pang and Lambourn. Rainfall chemistry is variable and concentrations of most determinands decrease with increasing volume of catch probably due to 'wash out' processes. Two rainfall sites have been monitored, one for each catchment. The rainfall site on the Lambourn shows higher chemical concentrations than the one for the Pang which probably reflects higher amounts of local inputs from agricultural activity. Rainfall quality data at a long-term rainfall site on the Pang (UK National Air Quality Archive shows chemistries similar to that for the Lambourn site, but with some clear differences. Rainfall chemistries show considerable variation on an event-to-event basis. Average water quality concentrations and flow-weighted concentrations as well as fluxes vary across the sites, typically by about 30%. Stream chemistry is much less variable due to the main source of water coming from aquifer sources of high storage. The relationship between rainfall and runoff chemistry at the catchment outlet is described in terms of the relative proportions of atmospheric and within-catchment sources. Remarkably, in view of the quantity of agricultural and sewage inputs to the streams, the catchments appear to be retaining both P and N. Keywords: water quality, nitrate, ammonium, phosphorus, ammonia, nitrogen dioxide, pH, alkalinity, nutrients, trace metals, rainfall, river, Pang, Lambourn, LOCAR

  7. Stochastic runoff connectivity (SRC) equations: integration with erosion models for water quality prediction (United States)

    Sheridan, G.; Jones, O. D.; Smith, H.; Cawson, J.; Lane, P. J.


    In a companion paper at this conference a single-event steady-state rainfall-runoff model (including runoff-runon phenomena) is derived that quantifies the effect of the random spatial arrangement of rainfall and soil properties on i) infiltration-excess runoff delivery at a downslope boundary, and ii) the distribution of the "connected length" (the upslope length with a continuous runoff pathway adjacent to the stream boundary). The accumulation and loss of runoff down a slope is represented as a first-in first-out (FIFO) GI/G/1 queuing system. Runoff rate at a downslope boundary is analogous to the waiting time in the queue in this representation. The distribution of connected length can be represented analytically as a FIFO M/M/1 queuing system, and the mean and variance is derived for this property. Together these distributions characterise the degree of connectivity of the overland flow pathway (and by extension its associated pollutant load) for a given set of rainfall and soil conditions. In this poster, the stochastic runoff connectivity (SRC) model is developed further. We show how the probabilistic SRC model outputs i) and ii) above can be integrated with physically based hillslope scale surface erosion models to predict the probability distribution of constituent (sediment, phosphorous, etc) delivery to the stream boundary. The performance of the model is compared to 2 years of multi-length erosion plot data, and 3 years of continuous small catchment export data from SE Australian forests.

  8. Calculation of total runoff and sediment yield from aliquot sampling in rainfall experiments (United States)

    Fister, Wolfgang; Tresch, Simon; Marzen, Miriam; Iserloh, Thomas


    The quality of rainfall simulations depends on many different aspects, for example simulator quality, operator experience, water quality, and a lot more. One important aspect, which is often not very well described in literature, is the calculation of total runoff and sediment yield from aliquot sampling of discharged material. More specifically, neither the sampling interval nor the interpolation method is clearly specified in many papers on rainfall simulations. As a result, an independent quality control of the published data is often impossible. Obviously, it would be best to collect everything that comes off the plot in the shortest possible interval. However, high rainfall amounts often coincide with limited transport and analysis capacities. It is, therefore, in most cases necessary to find a good compromise between sampling frequency, interpolation method, and available analysis capacities. In this study we compared different methods to calculate total sediment yield based on aliquot sampling intervals. The methods tested were (1) simple extrapolation of one sample until next sample was collected; (2) averaging between two successive samples; (3) extrapolation of the sediment concentration; (4) extrapolation using a regression function. The results indicate that all methods deliver more or less acceptable results, but errors between 10-25% would have to be taken into account for interpretation of the gained data. The first measurement interval causes highest deviations in almost all tested samples and methods. It is, therefore, essential to capture the initial flush of sediment from the plot most accurately, to be able to calculate reliable total values.

  9. Modeling Ballasted Tracks for Runoff Coefficient C (United States)


    In this study, the Regional Transportation District (RTD)s light rail tracks were modeled to determine the Rational Method : runoff coefficient, C, values corresponding to ballasted tracks. To accomplish this, a laboratory study utilizing a : rain...

  10. Rainfall simulation experiments: Influence of water temperature, water quality and plot design on soil erosion and runoff (United States)

    Iserloh, Thomas; Pegoraro, Dominique; Schlösser, Angelika; Thesing, Hannah; Seeger, Manuel; Ries, Johannes B.


    Field rainfall simulators are designed to study soil erosion processes and provide urgently needed data for various geomorphological, hydrological and pedological issues. Due to the different conditions and technologies applied, there are several methodological aspects under review of the scientific community, particularly concerning design, procedures and conditions of measurement for infiltration, runoff and soil erosion. This study aims at contributing fundamental data for understanding rainfall simulations in depth by studying the effect of the following parameters on the measurement results: 1. Plot design - round or rectangular plot: Can we identify differences in amount of runoff and erosion? 2. Water quality: What is the influence of the water's salt load on interrill erosion and infiltration as measured by rainfall experiments? 3. Water temperature: How much are the results conditioned by the temperature of water, which is subject to changes due to environmental conditions during the experiments? Preliminary results show a moderate increase of soil erosion with the water's salt load while runoff stays almost on the same level. With increasing water temperature, runoff increases continuously. At very high temperatures, soil erosion is clearly increased. A first comparison between round and rectangular plot indicates the rectangular plot to be the most suitable plot shape, but ambiguous results make further research necessary. The analysis of these three factors concerning their influence on runoff and erosion shows that clear methodological standards are necessary in order to make rainfall simulation experiments comparable.

  11. Modelling of Highway Runoff Quantity and Quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashraf El-Shahat Elsayed


    Full Text Available The stormwater Management Model (SWMM is a well-known stormwater runoff-simulation model. It is a deterministic, spatially distributed model for calculation of runoff quantity and quality. The aim of this study was to predict highway runoff characteristics using data from different highway catchments. The SWMM was used in the simulation process and the predicted data was verified using monitoring data collected from Prague-Plzeň highway for both total suspended solids and organic compounds. The analyzed data indicated that the simulated TSS, BOD5 concentrations lie within the range of the measured data and both data sets are considered highly polluted with respect to the specification limits. The analyzed data also show that the first flush of runoff is the most polluted, and is responsible for contamination of retention and/or received waters.

  12. Hydrology in a mediterranean mountain environment. The Vallcebre research catchment (north eastern Spain) II. Rainfall-runoff relationships and runoff processes; Hidrologia de un ambiente Mediterraneo de montana. Las cuencas de Vallcebre (Pirineo Oriental) II. Relaciones precipitacion-escorrentia y procesos hidrologicos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Latron, J.; Solar, M.; Nord, G.; Llorens, P.; Gallart, F.


    Hydrological response and runoff processes have been studied in the Vallcebre research basins (North Eastern Spain) for almost 20 years. Results obtained allowed to build a more complete perceptual model of the hydrological functioning of Mediterranean mountains basins. On a seasonal and monthly scale, there was no simple relationship between rainfall and runoff depths. Monthly rainfall and runoff values revealed the existence of a threshold in the relationship between rainfall and runoff depths. At the event scale, the storm-flow coefficient had a clear seasonal pattern. The effect of the water table position on how rainfall and runoff volumes relate was observed. Examination of soil water potential and water table dynamics during representative floods helped to identify 3 types of characteristic hydrological behaviour during the year. Under dry conditions, runoff was generated essentially as infiltration excess runoff in low permeable areas, whereas saturation excess runoff dominated during wetting-up and wet conditions. During wetting-up transition, saturated areas resulted from the development of scattered perched water tables, whereas in wet conditions they were linked to the rise of the shallow water table. (Author) 8 refs.

  13. Erosivity, surface runoff, and soil erosion estimation using GIS-coupled runoff-erosion model in the Mamuaba catchment, Brazil. (United States)

    Marques da Silva, Richarde; Guimarães Santos, Celso Augusto; Carneiro de Lima Silva, Valeriano; Pereira e Silva, Leonardo


    This study evaluates erosivity, surface runoff generation, and soil erosion rates for Mamuaba catchment, sub-catchment of Gramame River basin (Brazil) by using the ArcView Soil and Water Assessment Tool (AvSWAT) model. Calibration and validation of the model was performed on monthly basis, and it could simulate surface runoff and soil erosion to a good level of accuracy. Daily rainfall data between 1969 and 1989 from six rain gauges were used, and the monthly rainfall erosivity of each station was computed for all the studied years. In order to evaluate the calibration and validation of the model, monthly runoff data between January 1978 and April 1982 from one runoff gauge were used as well. The estimated soil loss rates were also realistic when compared to what can be observed in the field and to results from previous studies around of catchment. The long-term average soil loss was estimated at 9.4 t ha(-1) year(-1); most of the area of the catchment (60%) was predicted to suffer from a low- to moderate-erosion risk (soil erosion was estimated to exceed > 12 t ha(-1) year(-1). Expectedly, estimated soil loss was significantly correlated with measured rainfall and simulated surface runoff. Based on the estimated soil loss rates, the catchment was divided into four priority categories (low, moderate, high and very high) for conservation intervention. The study demonstrates that the AvSWAT model provides a useful tool for soil erosion assessment from catchments and facilitates the planning for a sustainable land management in northeastern Brazil.

  14. [Experimental study on rainfall-runoff pollutant reduction by urban green space]. (United States)

    Cheng, Jiang; Yang, Kai; Lü, Yong-Peng; Li, Bo; Lü, Shu-Hua


    Based on the state that non-pointed pollution caused by urban rainfall-runoff was one of the major factors which led to urban surface water contaminated and ecology deteriorated, a soil aquifer treatment system was built to experimentally study the pollution reduction effectiveness of green space, and the impacts of land cover, influent concentration, soil depth, hydraulic loading rate and residence time were analyzed. The results exhibit that green space has a better and stabilized ability to reduce three representative urban rainfall-runoff pollution concentrations, which COD are 44.5, 144.3, 487.2 mg x L(-1), NH4(+) -N are 4.27, 11.44, 36.61 mg x L(-1) and TP are 0.98, 2.85, 9.66 mg x L(-1), respectively, and with 8.15, 7.13 and 6.12 cm x h(-1) hydraulic loading rate, respectively. The pollution reduction rates of COD, NH4(+) -N and TP by green space are 33.41%-37.14%, 58.74%-61.49% and 63.65%-67.08%, respectively. The effect of land cover to pollution reduction rate is not significant because of the limitation of oxygen and hydraulic residence time. When pollution concentration increases, the comprehensive pollution reduction ability of green space is kept in 50%-60%, with a little increased tendency. Pollution reduction process happens mainly in the upper layer of the green space soil with a depth of 50-70 cm.

  15. Stochastic rainfall-runoff forecasting: parameter estimation, multi-step prediction, and evaluation of overflow risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Löwe, Roland; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Madsen, Henrik


    Probabilistic runoff forecasts generated by stochastic greybox models can be notably useful for the improvement of the decision-making process in real-time control setups for urban drainage systems because the prediction risk relationships in these systems are often highly nonlinear. To date...

  16. Impact of urbanization on rainfall-runoff processes: case study in the Liangshui River Basin in Beijing, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Xu


    Full Text Available China is undergoing rapid urbanization during the past decades. For example, the proportion of urban population in Beijing has increased from 57.6 % in 1980 to 86.3 % in 2013. Rapid urbanization has an adverse impact on the urban rainfall-runoff processes, which may result in the increase of urban flood risk. In the present study, the major purpose is to investigate the impact of land use/cover change on hydrological processes. The intensive human activities, such as the increase of impervious area, changes of river network morphology, construction of drainage system and water transfer, were considered in this study. Landsat TM images were adopted to monitor urbanization process based on Urban Land-use Index (ULI. The SWMM model considering different urbanized scenarios and anthropogenic disturbance was developed. The measured streamflow data was used for model calibration and validation. Precipitation with different return periods was taken as model input to analyse the changes of flood characteristics under different urbanized scenarios. The results indicated that SWMM provided a good estimation for storms under different urbanized scenarios. The volume of surface runoff after urbanization was 3.5 times greater than that before urbanization; the coefficient of runoff changed from 0.12 to 0.41, and the ratio of infiltration decreased from 88 to 60 %. After urbanization, the time of overland flow concentration increased while the time of river concentration decreased; the peak time did not show much difference in this study. It was found that the peak flow of 20-year return-period after urbanization is greater than that of 100-year return-period before urbanization. The amplification effect of urbanization on flood is significant, resulting in an increase of the flooding risk. These effects are especially noticeable for extreme precipitation. The results in this study will provide technical support for the planning and management of urban

  17. Impact of urbanization on rainfall-runoff processes: case study in the Liangshui River Basin in Beijing, China (United States)

    Xu, Zongxue; Zhao, Gang


    China is undergoing rapid urbanization during the past decades. For example, the proportion of urban population in Beijing has increased from 57.6 % in 1980 to 86.3 % in 2013. Rapid urbanization has an adverse impact on the urban rainfall-runoff processes, which may result in the increase of urban flood risk. In the present study, the major purpose is to investigate the impact of land use/cover change on hydrological processes. The intensive human activities, such as the increase of impervious area, changes of river network morphology, construction of drainage system and water transfer, were considered in this study. Landsat TM images were adopted to monitor urbanization process based on Urban Land-use Index (ULI). The SWMM model considering different urbanized scenarios and anthropogenic disturbance was developed. The measured streamflow data was used for model calibration and validation. Precipitation with different return periods was taken as model input to analyse the changes of flood characteristics under different urbanized scenarios. The results indicated that SWMM provided a good estimation for storms under different urbanized scenarios. The volume of surface runoff after urbanization was 3.5 times greater than that before urbanization; the coefficient of runoff changed from 0.12 to 0.41, and the ratio of infiltration decreased from 88 to 60 %. After urbanization, the time of overland flow concentration increased while the time of river concentration decreased; the peak time did not show much difference in this study. It was found that the peak flow of 20-year return-period after urbanization is greater than that of 100-year return-period before urbanization. The amplification effect of urbanization on flood is significant, resulting in an increase of the flooding risk. These effects are especially noticeable for extreme precipitation. The results in this study will provide technical support for the planning and management of urban storm water and the

  18. Evaluation of Synthetic Outlet Runoff Assessment Models | Adib ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Quantitative understanding and prediction of the processes of runoff generation and its transmission to the outlet represent one of the most basic and challenging areas of hydrology. Traditional techniques for design flood estimation use historical rainfall-runoff data for unit hydrograph (UH) derivation. Such techniques have ...

  19. Runoff and soil erosion plot-scale studies under natural rainfall: A meta-analysis of the Brazilian experience (United States)

    Research to measure soil erosion rates in the United States from natural rainfall runoff plots began in the early 1900’s. In Brazil, the first experimental study at the plot-scale was conducted in the 1940’s; however, the monitoring process and the creation of new experimental field plots have not c...

  20. 1D Runoff-runon stochastic model in the light of queueing theory : heterogeneity and connectivity (United States)

    Harel, M.-A.; Mouche, E.; Ledoux, E.


    Runoff production on a hillslope during a rainfall event may be simplified as follows. Given a soil of constant infiltrability I, which is the maximum amount of water that the soil can infiltrate, and a constant rainfall intensity R, runoff is observed where R is greater than I. The infiltration rate equals the infiltrability when runoff is produced, R otherwise. When ponding time, topography, and overall spatial and temporal variations of physical parameters, such as R and I, are neglected, the runoff equation remains simple. In this study, we consider soils of spatially variable infiltrability. As runoff can re-infiltrate on down-slope areas of higher infiltrabilities (runon), the resulting process is highly non-linear. The stationary runoff equation is: Qn+1 = max(Qn + (R - In)*Δx , 0) where Qn is the runoff arriving on pixel n of size Δx [L2/T], R and In the rainfall intensity and infiltrability on that same pixel [L/T]. The non-linearity is due to the dependence of infiltration on R and Qn, that is runon. This re-infiltration process generates patterns of runoff along the slope, patterns that organise and connect to each other differently depending on the rainfall intensity and the nature of the soil heterogeneity. The runoff connectivity, assessed using the connectivity function of Allard (1993), affects greatly the dynamics of the runoff hillslope. Our aim is to assess, in a stochastic framework, the runoff organization on 1D slopes with random infiltrabilities (log-normal, exponential, bimodal and uniform distributions) by means of theoretical developments and numerical simulations. This means linking the nature of soil heterogeneity with the resulting runoff organisation. In term of connectivity, we investigate the relations between structural (infiltrability) and functional (runoff) connectivity. A theoretical framework based on the queueing theory is developed. We implement the idea of Jones et al. (2009), who remarked that the above formulation is

  1. A note on estimating urban roof runoff with a forest evaporation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gash, J.H.C.; Rosier, P.T.W.; Ragab, R.


    A model developed for estimating the evaporation of rainfall intercepted by forest canopies is applied to estimate measurements of the average runoff from the roofs of six houses made in a previous study of hydrological processes in an urban environment. The model is applied using values of the mean

  2. Mid- and long-term runoff predictions by an improved phase-space reconstruction model. (United States)

    Hong, Mei; Wang, Dong; Wang, Yuankun; Zeng, Xiankui; Ge, Shanshan; Yan, Hengqian; Singh, Vijay P


    In recent years, the phase-space reconstruction method has usually been used for mid- and long-term runoff predictions. However, the traditional phase-space reconstruction method is still needs to be improved. Using the genetic algorithm to improve the phase-space reconstruction method, a new nonlinear model of monthly runoff is constructed. The new model does not rely heavily on embedding dimensions. Recognizing that the rainfall-runoff process is complex, affected by a number of factors, more variables (e.g. temperature and rainfall) are incorporated in the model. In order to detect the possible presence of chaos in the runoff dynamics, chaotic characteristics of the model are also analyzed, which shows the model can represent the nonlinear and chaotic characteristics of the runoff. The model is tested for its forecasting performance in four types of experiments using data from six hydrological stations on the Yellow River and the Yangtze River. Results show that the medium-and long-term runoff is satisfactorily forecasted at the hydrological stations. Not only is the forecasting trend accurate, but also the mean absolute percentage error is no more than 15%. Moreover, the forecast results of wet years and dry years are both good, which means that the improved model can overcome the traditional ''wet years and dry years predictability barrier,'' to some extent. The model forecasts for different regions are all good, showing the universality of the approach. Compared with selected conceptual and empirical methods, the model exhibits greater reliability and stability in the long-term runoff prediction. Our study provides a new thinking for research on the association between the monthly runoff and other hydrological factors, and also provides a new method for the prediction of the monthly runoff. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. HD Hydrological modelling at catchment scale using rainfall radar observations (United States)

    Ciampalini Rossano. Ciampalini@Gmail. Com), Rossano; Follain, Stéphane; Raclot, Damien; Crabit, Armand; Pastor, Amandine; Augas, Julien; Moussa, Roger; Colin, François; Le Bissonnais, Yves


    Hydrological simulations at catchment scale repose on the quality and data availability both for soil and rainfall data. Soil data are quite easy to be collected, although their quality depends on the resources devoted to this task, rainfall data observations, instead, need further effort because of their spatiotemporal variability. Rainfalls are normally recorded with rain gauges located in the catchment, they can provide detailed temporal data, but, the representativeness is limited to the point where the data are collected. Combining different gauges in space can provide a better representation of the rainfall event but the spatialization is often the main obstacle to obtain data close to the reality. Since several years, radar observations overcome this gap providing continuous data registration, that, when properly calibrated, can offer an adequate, continuous, cover in space and time for medium-wide catchments. Here, we use radar records for the south of the France on the La Peyne catchment with the protocol there adopted by the national meteo agency, with resolution of 1 km space and 5' time scale observations. We present here the realisation of a model able to perform from rainfall radar observations, continuous hydrological and soil erosion simulations. The model is semi-theoretically based, once it simulates water fluxes (infiltration-excess overland flow, saturation overland flow, infiltration and channel routing) with a cinematic wave using the St. Venant equation on a simplified "bucket" conceptual model for ground water, and, an empirical representation of sediment load as adopted in models such as STREAM-LANDSOIL (Cerdan et al., 2002, Ciampalini et al., 2012). The advantage of this approach is to furnish a dynamic representation - simulation of the rainfall-runoff events more easily than using spatialized rainfalls from meteo stations and to offer a new look on the spatial component of the events.

  4. Statistical analysis and modelling of surface runoff from arable fields in central Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Fiener


    Full Text Available Surface runoff generation on arable fields is an important driver of flooding, on-site and off-site damages by erosion, and of nutrient and agrochemical transport. In general, three different processes generate surface runoff (Hortonian runoff, saturation excess runoff, and return of subsurface flow. Despite the developments in our understanding of these processes it remains difficult to predict which processes govern runoff generation during the course of an event or throughout the year, when soil and vegetation on arable land are passing many states. We analysed the results from 317 rainfall simulations on 209 soils from different landscapes with a resolution of 14 286 runoff measurements to determine temporal and spatial differences in variables governing surface runoff, and to derive and test a statistical model of surface runoff generation independent from an a priori selection of modelled process types. Measured runoff was related to 20 time-invariant soil properties, three variable soil properties, four rain properties, three land use properties and many derived variables describing interactions and curvilinear behaviour. In an iterative multiple regression procedure, six of these properties/variables best described initial abstraction and the hydrograph. To estimate initial abstraction, the percentages of stone cover above 10% and of sand content in the bulk soil were needed, while the hydrograph could be predicted best from rain depth exceeding initial abstraction, rainfall intensity, soil organic carbon content, and time since last tillage. Combining the multiple regressions to estimate initial abstraction and surface runoff allowed modelling of event-specific hydrographs without an a priori assumption of the underlying process. The statistical model described the measured data well and performed equally well during validation. In both cases, the model explained 71 and 58% of variability in accumulated runoff volume and instantaneous

  5. Modelling persistence in annual Australia point rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. P. Whiting


    Full Text Available Annual rainfall time series for Sydney from 1859 to 1999 is analysed. Clear evidence of nonstationarity is presented, but substantial evidence for persistence or hidden states is more elusive. A test of the hypothesis that a hidden state Markov model reduces to a mixture distribution is presented. There is strong evidence of a correlation between the annual rainfall and climate indices. Strong evidence of persistence of one of these indices, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO, is presented together with a demonstration that this is better modelled by fractional differencing than by a hidden state Markov model. It is shown that conditioning the logarithm of rainfall on PDO, the Southern Oscillation index (SOI, and their interaction provides realistic simulation of rainfall that matches observed statistics. Similar simulation models are presented for Brisbane, Melbourne and Perth. Keywords: Hydrological persistence,hidden state Markov models, fractional differencing, PDO, SOI, Australian rainfall

  6. Integration of rainfall/runoff and geomorphological analyses flood hazard in small catchments: case studies from the southern Apennines (Italy) (United States)

    Palumbo, Manuela; Ascione, Alessandra; Santangelo, Nicoletta; Santo, Antonio


    We present the first results of an analysis of flood hazard in ungauged mountain catchments that are associated with intensely urbanized alluvial fans. Assessment of hydrological hazard has been based on the integration of rainfall/runoff modelling of drainage basins with geomorphological analysis and mapping. Some small and steep, ungauged mountain catchments located in various areas of the southern Apennines, in southern Italy, have been chosen as test sites. In the last centuries, the selected basins have been subject to heavy and intense precipitation events, which have caused flash floods with serious damages in the correlated alluvial fan areas. Available spatial information (regional technical maps, DEMs, land use maps, geological/lithological maps, orthophotos) and an automated GIS-based procedure (ArcGis tools and ArcHydro tools) have been used to extract morphological, hydrological and hydraulic parameters. Such parameters have been used to run the HEC (Hydrologic Engineering Center of the US Army Corps of Engineers) software (GeoHMS, GeoRAS, HMS and RAS) based on rainfall-runoff models, which have allowed the hydrological and hydraulic simulations. As the floods occurred in the studied catchments have been debris flows dominated, the solid load simulation has been also performed. In order to validate the simulations, we have compared results of the modelling with the effects produced by past floods. Such effects have been quantified through estimations of both the sediment volumes within each catchment that have the potential to be mobilised (pre-event) during a sediment transfer event, and the volume of sediments delivered by the debris flows at basins' outlets (post-event). The post-event sediment volume has been quantified through post-event surveys and Lidar data. Evaluation of the pre-event sediment volumes in single catchments has been based on mapping of sediment storages that may constitute source zones of bed load transport and debris flows. For

  7. Impact of rainfall temporal resolution on urban water quality modelling performance and uncertainties. (United States)

    Manz, Bastian Johann; Rodríguez, Juan Pablo; Maksimović, Cedo; McIntyre, Neil


    A key control on the response of an urban drainage model is how well the observed rainfall records represent the real rainfall variability. Particularly in urban catchments with fast response flow regimes, the selection of temporal resolution in rainfall data collection is critical. Furthermore, the impact of the rainfall variability on the model response is amplified for water quality estimates, as uncertainty in rainfall intensity affects both the rainfall-runoff and pollutant wash-off sub-models, thus compounding uncertainties. A modelling study was designed to investigate the impact of altering rainfall temporal resolution on the magnitude and behaviour of uncertainties associated with the hydrological modelling compared with water quality modelling. The case study was an 85-ha combined sewer sub-catchment in Bogotá (Colombia). Water quality estimates showed greater sensitivity to the inter-event variability in rainfall hyetograph characteristics than to changes in the rainfall input temporal resolution. Overall, uncertainties from the water quality model were two- to five-fold those of the hydrological model. However, owing to the intrinsic scarcity of observations in urban water quality modelling, total model output uncertainties, especially from the water quality model, were too large to make recommendations for particular model structures or parameter values with respect to rainfall temporal resolution.

  8. Spatio-temporal patterns of rainfall-runoff event and baseflow characteristics and their potential drivers in Germany (United States)

    Tarasova, Larisa; Poncelet, Carine; Zink, Matthias; Merz, Ralf


    Event and baseflow characteristics are an important source of information to reveal how much of rainfall transforms into runoff and how fast does it happen, and to shed a light on the temporal variability of the rainfall-runoff event characteristics. A new event separation method allows fast and continuous separation of rainfall-runoff events and provides a formal framework for judging their independence. We analyze more than 190,000 events for 378 German catchments, using event and baseflow characteristics for uncovering regional pattern of hydrologically similar catchments with Self-Organizing Maps. Event and baseflow characteristics reveal a clear spatial pattern in Germany and can be associated with reasonable climatic and landscape drivers. A large dataset of catchment descriptors representing climate, geology, hydrogeology, groundwater and aquifer properties, geomorphology, topography, soil types and properties, soil water properties, land use, characteristics of dry and wet spells were used for iterative selection of catchment descriptors based on the measure of cluster similarity, which avoids subjectivity of their choice. Principal Component Analysis has shown that climatic drivers and soil properties are principal descriptors for majority of clusters. Geological and hydrogeological properties contribute mostly to the variability of baseflow characteristics, while wet and dry spells properties are important for resembling spatial pattern of event characteristics.

  9. Characteristics of radiocesium runoff between five river basins near to the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant over heavy rainfall events (United States)

    Sakuma, Kazuyuki; Malins, Alex; Kurikami, Hiroshi; Kitamura, Akihiro


    Due to the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident triggered by the earthquake and subsequent tsunami on 11 March 2011, many radionuclides were released into environments such as forests, rivers, dam reservoirs, and the ocean. 137Cs is one of the most important radio-contaminants. In order to investigate 137Cs transport and discharge from contaminated basins, in this study we developed a three dimensional model of five river basins near to the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. We applied the General-purpose Terrestrial fluid-Flow Simulator (GETFLOWS) watershed code to the Odaka, Ukedo, Maeda, Kuma, and Tomioka River basins. The main land uses in these areas are forests, rice paddy fields, crop fields and urban. The Ukedo, Kuma and Tomioka Rivers have relatively large dam reservoirs (>106 m3) in the upper basins. The radiocesium distribution was initiated based on the Second Airborne Monitoring Survey. The simulation periods were 2011 Typhoon Roke, nine heavy rainfall events in 2013, Typhoons Man-yi and Wipha, and tropical storm Etau in 2015. Water, sediment, and radiocesium discharge from the basins was calculated for these events. The characteristics of 137Cs runoff between the different basins were evaluated in terms of land use, the effect of dam reservoirs, geology, and the fraction of the initial radiocesium inventory discharged. The absolute 137Cs discharge from the Ukedo River basin was highest, however the 137Cs discharge ratio was lowest due to the Ogaki Dam and the inventory being mainly concentrated in upstream forests. The results for the water, suspended sediment and radiocesium discharge as a function of total precipitation over the various rainfall events can be used to predict discharges for other typhoons.

  10. Development and Testing of an ANN Model for Estimation of Runoff from a Snow Covered Catchment (United States)

    Bhadra, A.; Bandyopadhyay, A.; Chakraborty, S.; Roy, S.; Kumar, T.


    In this study, an attempt has been made to develop an ANN model to estimate runoff from a snow covered catchment of eastern Himalaya using feed-forward back-propagation algorithm with Levenberg-Marquardt optimization technique. The ANN model was programmed in C++ whereas a user-friendly GUI was developed in VB. The effects of past days rainfall and present day temperature data was observed on the performance of the selected ANN architecture in modelling snowmelt and monsoon season runoff. For this purpose, 8 years' (2003-2010) daily data (rainfall, temperature, and discharge) were collected from CWC which were again divided into two parts (2003-2008 and 2009-2010) for training and testing of the ANN model, respectively. Initially it was found that the network can produce acceptable results with only rainfall data as input, but it needs at least past 3 days rainfall data to account for the antecedent moisture condition of the catchment. Networks 4-16-16-1 (with past 3 days rainfall) and 6-18-18-18-1 (with past 5 days rainfall) resulted modelling efficiency of 79.38 and 82.06% in training and 55.13 and 61.06% in validation, respectively. However, addition of present day temperature data as another input improved the performance in both training (ME 83.10 and 82.22%) and testing (ME 62.64 and 61.89%) marginally.

  11. Partitioning the impacts of spatial rainfall variability and climate variability in urban drainage flow modelling (United States)

    Peleg, Nadav; Blumensaat, Frank; Molnar, Peter; Fatichi, Simone; Burlando, Paolo


    The performance of urban drainage systems is typically examined using hydrological and hydrodynamic models where rainfall is uniformly distributed and derived from a single rain gauge, or spatially distributed and obtained from a weather radar system. When models are fed with a single realization, the response of the urban drainage system to the spatiotemporal variability of rainfall remains unexplored. High resolution stochastic rainfall generators allow studying the response and sensitivity of urban drainage networks to these spatial and climatological rainfall variabilities. The goal in this study was to understand how climate variability and spatial rainfall variability affect the response of a calibrated hydrodynamic urban drainage model. A stochastic high resolution rainfall generator (STREAP) was used to simulate many realizations of rainfall, accounting for both climate variability and spatial rainfall variability. The generated rainfall was then used as input into a calibrated hydrodynamic model (EPA SWMM) to simulate surface runoff and channel flow for a small urban catchment. The variability of peak flows at three different locations in the urban drainage network in response to rainfall of different return periods was evaluated and partitioned among it sources. We found that the main contribution to the total flow variability originates from the natural climate variability. In addition, the contribution of spatial rainfall variability to the total flow variability was found to increase with longer return periods.

  12. Madagascar corals reveal a multidecadal signature of rainfall and river runoff since 1708

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grove, C.A.; Zinke, J.; Peeters, F.; Park, W.; Scheufen, T.; Kasper, S.; Randriamanantsoa, B.; McCulloch, M.T.; Brummer, G.J.A.


    Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures (SST) influence rainfall variability on multidecadal and interdecadal timescales in concert with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Rainfall variations in locations such as Australia and North America are therefore

  13. Partitioning the impacts of spatial and climatological rainfall variability in urban drainage modeling (United States)

    Peleg, Nadav; Blumensaat, Frank; Molnar, Peter; Fatichi, Simone; Burlando, Paolo


    The performance of urban drainage systems is typically examined using hydrological and hydrodynamic models where rainfall input is uniformly distributed, i.e., derived from a single or very few rain gauges. When models are fed with a single uniformly distributed rainfall realization, the response of the urban drainage system to the rainfall variability remains unexplored. The goal of this study was to understand how climate variability and spatial rainfall variability, jointly or individually considered, affect the response of a calibrated hydrodynamic urban drainage model. A stochastic spatially distributed rainfall generator (STREAP - Space-Time Realizations of Areal Precipitation) was used to simulate many realizations of rainfall for a 30-year period, accounting for both climate variability and spatial rainfall variability. The generated rainfall ensemble was used as input into a calibrated hydrodynamic model (EPA SWMM - the US EPA's Storm Water Management Model) to simulate surface runoff and channel flow in a small urban catchment in the city of Lucerne, Switzerland. The variability of peak flows in response to rainfall of different return periods was evaluated at three different locations in the urban drainage network and partitioned among its sources. The main contribution to the total flow variability was found to originate from the natural climate variability (on average over 74 %). In addition, the relative contribution of the spatial rainfall variability to the total flow variability was found to increase with longer return periods. This suggests that while the use of spatially distributed rainfall data can supply valuable information for sewer network design (typically based on rainfall with return periods from 5 to 15 years), there is a more pronounced relevance when conducting flood risk assessments for larger return periods. The results show the importance of using multiple distributed rainfall realizations in urban hydrology studies to capture the

  14. Assessing the radar rainfall estimates in watershed-scale water quality model (United States)

    Watershed-scale water quality models are effective science-based tools for interpreting change in complex environmental systems that affect hydrology cycle, soil erosion and nutrient fate and transport in watershed. Precipitation is one of the primary input data to achieve a precise rainfall-runoff ...

  15. Modeling climate change impact on surface runoff, erosion and sediment yield in agriculturally used catchments (United States)

    Scherer, Ulrike; Gerlinger, Kai; Zehe, Erwin


    Surface runoff and soil erosion as well as many of the factors controlling both will be directly or indirectly affected by climate change impact. Increasing precipitation amounts and intensities cause non linear responses of runoff and soil loss. The variation of local precipitation and temperature regimes implicate shifts in vegetation cover, soil conditions, land use and management which will affect runoff, erosion and the translocation of sediments and environmental pollutants to surface waters. For example the adaptation of crop rotation and planting dates due to changes within temperature regimes will cause shifts in vegetation cover which might affect erosion due to decreasing cover in periods of high storm risk. In agriculturally used catchments of Southern Germany, the susceptibility of soils to erosion is highest during spring and summer because of both, an increasing risk for thunderstorms in this season and a sparse soil cover due to the growth period of crops. Climate change scenarios for Southern Germany assume higher average precipitation rates during the winter half year, whereas precipitation rates in summer are slightly decreasing. Longer lasting rainfall events in winter will increase runoff but will have no significant impact on sediment yields, since the rainfall intensities are quite low. Despite lower rainfall rates in the summer half year it is expected that the rainfall intensity of extreme events will increase, including a higher risk for erosion. To analyse how surface runoff response and sediment yields will be affected by climate change impact the process based erosion model CATFLOW-SED was used. CATFLOW-SED is based on Richards Equation including an effective approach for preferential flow and the Saint-Venant-Equation to simulate soil water dynamics and overland flow / river flow. The erosion process is modeled using shear stress, the momentum balance of precipitation and a semi-empirical erosion resistance for predicting soil

  16. Characterization of nested watershed hydrologic response from high-resolution rainfall and runoff data in the Baltimore Ecosystem Study LTER (United States)

    Miller, A. J.; Lindner, G. A.; Smith, J. A.; Baeck, M. L.; Welty, C.; Miller, J.; Meierdiercks, K. L.


    This presentation reports initial results from analysis of data collected at a set of six stream gages representing three nested watershed scales (1-2 km2, 5-6 km2, 14 km2) in Dead Run, a highly impervious suburban watershed in Baltimore County, MD, USA. Streamflow data collected at 5-minute temporal resolution during the period 2007-2011 are compared with 1-km2 gridded and watershed-average precipitation data with 15-minute temporal resolution provided by the HydroNEXRAD project for the Baltimore metropolitan area. The period of overlapping precipitation and runoff data currently available for all six nested watersheds includes calendar years 2008 and 2009. Analyses include mass balance for monthly time periods as well as individual storm events; comparison of hydrologic response among nested watersheds of similar scale and across scales; and characterization of spatial and temporal patterns in storm-period rainfall, drainage network structure, watershed morphometry, and urban infrastructure as potential influences on patterns of hydrologic response. We attempted to isolate the effects of watershed characteristics by selecting a subset of storm events with a rainfall "pulse" defined by minimum accumulation of ~10 mm and >80% of storm-total rainfall arriving within a one-hour period at all six nested subwatersheds. Hydrographs were compared to assess characteristic shape, runoff ratio, and timing. We also examined several longer, more complex storm events with multiple rainfall pulses in order to observe the response at multiple watershed scales. Despite the constraints imposed on storm structure we find that even slight variations in the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall may be associated with major differences in watershed response (volume and timing) at the 1-2 km2 and 5-6 km2 scales. Some of these variations would be difficult to explain without availability of high-resolution rainfall data. In multiple events we observe that the 5-6 km2 watersheds

  17. Impact of pig slurry amendments on phosphorus, suspended sediment and metal losses in laboratory runoff boxes under simulated rainfall. (United States)

    O'Flynn, C J; Fenton, O; Wilson, P; Healy, M G


    Losses of phosphorus (P) when pig slurry applications to land are followed by a rainfall event or losses from soils with high P contents can contribute to eutrophication of receiving waters. The addition of amendments to pig slurry spread on high P Index soils may reduce P and suspended sediment (SS) losses. This hypothesis was tested at laboratory-scale using runoff boxes under simulated rainfall conditions. Intact grassed soil samples, 100 cm-long, 22.5 cm-wide and 5 cm-deep, were placed in runoff boxes and pig slurry or amended pig slurry was applied to the soil surface. The amendments examined were: (1) commercial grade liquid alum (8% Al(2)O(3)) applied at a rate of 0.88:1 [Al:total phosphorus (TP)] (2) commercial-grade liquid ferric chloride (38% FeCl(3)) applied at a rate of 0.89:1 [Fe:TP] and (3) commercial-grade liquid poly-aluminium chloride (PAC) (10% Al(2)O(3)) applied at a rate of 0.72:1 [Al:TP]. The grassed soil was then subjected to three rainfall events (10.3 ± 0.15 mm h(-1)) at time intervals of 48, 72, and 96 h following slurry application. Each sod received rainfall on 3 occasions. Results across three rainfall events showed that for the control treatment, the average flow weighted mean concentration (FWMC) of TP was 0.61 mg L(-1), of which 31% was particulate phosphorus (PP), and the average FWMC of SS was 38.1 mg L(-1). For the slurry treatment, there was an average FWMC of 2.2 mg TP L(-1), 47% of which was PP, and the average FWMC of SS was 71.5 mg L(-1). Ranked in order of effectiveness from best to worst, PAC reduced the average FWMC of TP to 0.64 mg L(-1) (42% PP), FeCl(3) reduced TP to 0.91 mg L(-1) (52% PP) and alum reduced TP to 1.08 mg L(-1) (56% PP). The amendments were in the same order when ranked for effectiveness at reducing SS: PAC (74%), FeCl(3) (66%) and alum (39%). Total phosphorus levels in runoff plots receiving amended slurry remained above those from soil only, indicating that, although incidental losses could be mitigated

  18. Do we really use rainfall observations consistent with reality in hydrological modelling? (United States)

    Ciampalini, Rossano; Follain, Stéphane; Raclot, Damien; Crabit, Armand; Pastor, Amandine; Moussa, Roger; Le Bissonnais, Yves


    Spatial and temporal patterns in rainfall control how water reaches soil surface and interacts with soil properties (i.e., soil wetting, infiltration, saturation). Once a hydrological event is defined by a rainfall with its spatiotemporal variability and by some environmental parameters such as soil properties (including land use, topographic and anthropic features), the evidence shows that each parameter variation produces different, specific outputs (e.g., runoff, flooding etc.). In this study, we focus on the effect of rainfall patterns because, due to the difficulty to dispose of detailed data, their influence in modelling is frequently underestimated or neglected. A rainfall event affects a catchment non uniformly, it is spatially localized and its pattern moves in space and time. The way and the time how the water reaches the soil and saturates it respect to the geometry of the catchment deeply influences soil saturation, runoff, and then sediment delivery. This research, approaching a hypothetical, simple case, aims to stimulate the debate on the reliability of the rainfall quality used in hydrological / soil erosion modelling. We test on a small catchment of the south of France (Roujan, Languedoc Roussillon) the influence of rainfall variability with the use of a HD hybrid hydrological - soil erosion model, combining a cinematic wave with the St. Venant equation and a simplified "bucket" conceptual model for ground water, able to quantify the effect of different spatiotemporal patterns of a very-high-definition synthetic rainfall. Results indicate that rainfall spatiotemporal patterns are crucial simulating an erosive event: differences between spatially uniform rainfalls, as frequently adopted in simulations, and some hypothetical rainfall patterns here applied, reveal that the outcome of a simulated event can be highly underestimated.

  19. A consideration of rainfall, runoff and losses at Plynlimon in the context of long term hydrological variability in the UK and maritime Western Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Green


    Full Text Available Important questions concerning the resilience of current water management strategies have been raised by the recent volatility of climatic conditions across large parts of western Europe. The last decade, overall, has been exceptionally warm and there have been very large spatial and temporal variations in rainfall, river flows and aquifer recharge rates. Examination of historical rainfall and runoff records for parts of maritime western Europe confirms that there is no close modern parallel to the conditions experienced recently. Some-but far from complete-consistency with a number of favoured climate change scenarios may be recognised. Analyses of recent trends in lengthy rainfall and runoff series for the UK demonstrate significant regional differences and provide conflicting signals especially in relation to trends in catchment losses. Difficulties in reconciling the results from different areas may reflect both real hydroclimatological differences between catchments and variations in the precision of hydrometric time series-uncertainties in the assessment of areal precipitation in upland areas in particular. The dense monitoring networks at Plynlimon together with a rigorous data quality control programme underpins the value of the hydrometric datasets as important benchmarks against which to assess the significance of the very unusual patterns of rainfall and runoff which have characterised the recent past. This paper places the rainfall, runoff and losses data for Plynlimon in the perspective provided by a number of long hydrometric records for maritime western Europe. The representativeness of the Plynlimon base period is considered with particular reference to both the historical stability which typifies the great majority of European hydrometric time series and the recent extension in the recorded range of accumulated rainfall and runoff totals which has been identified in some regions (e.g. western Scotland and Norway. Particular

  20. Comparison of two stochastic techniques for reliable urban runoff prediction by modeling systematic errors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Del Giudice, Dario; Löwe, Roland; Madsen, Henrik


    In urban rainfall-runoff, commonly applied statistical techniques for uncertainty quantification mostly ignore systematic output errors originating from simplified models and erroneous inputs. Consequently, the resulting predictive uncertainty is often unreliable. Our objective is to present two ....... These properties make it more suitable for off-line applications. The IND can help in diagnosing the causes of output errors and is computationally inexpensive. It produces best results on short forecast horizons that are typical for online applications.......In urban rainfall-runoff, commonly applied statistical techniques for uncertainty quantification mostly ignore systematic output errors originating from simplified models and erroneous inputs. Consequently, the resulting predictive uncertainty is often unreliable. Our objective is to present two...

  1. Simulating runoff from an area covered by soil contour ridges using a hydraulic cascade model (United States)

    Slah, Nasri


    Runoff agriculture and rainwater harvesting are well known farming techniques that have guaranteed crop production in the arid zone of Tunisia since ancient times. At present, soil contour ridges (banquettes) are the main water and soil conservation used. Actually about one million ha farming land were protected by this technique. Usually, soil contour ridges are designed for a 10-year return period to reduce runoff and erosion in hill-slope catchments. However, the detailed hydraulic function of this technique is still to a major extent unknown. For this purpose a runoff model was developed to simulate the discharge from an upstream system of several soil contour ridges. The model was validated using experimental runoff. The simulated runoff agreed well with observed discharge. The validated model was used to simulate runoff from a system of one to several soil contour ridges in a cascade from a 10-year rainfall event. Practical conclusions are drawn by discussing the spacing and design of the soil contour ridges. Key words: Soil surface management, soil contour ridge, discharge, hydraulic cascade.

  2. Modelling relationship between rainfall variability and millet ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The analytical tools used in developing and testing the model performance include ogive of cumulative pentad rainfall, product-moment correlation coefficient (r), stepwise multiple regression analysis and coefficient of determination (R2). The study produced four yield forecast models; three for millet at Kano, Katsina and ...

  3. Distribution of stable isotopes in arid storms . I. Relation between the distribution of isotopic composition in rainfall and in the consequent runoff (United States)

    Adar, E. M.; Dody, A.; Geyh, M. A.; Yair, A.; Yakirevich, A.; Issar, A. S.

    Temporal distributions of the isotopic composition in arid rain storms and in the associated runoff were investigated in a small arid rocky basin in Israel. Customized rain and runoff samplers provided sequential water samples hermetically sealed in high-density PVC bags. In several storms where the runoff was isotopically depleted, compared with the rainfall, the difference could not be explained by fractionation effects occurring during overland flow. A water-balance study relating the runoff discharge to rainfall over a rocky watershed showed that the entire discharge is produced by a very small segment (1-2mm) of the rain storm. The major objective, therefore, was to provide quantitative relations between segments of rainfall (rain showers and rain spells) and runoff. The time distribution of the composition of stable isotopes (oxygen and hydrogen) was used to quantify the correlation between the rain spell's amount and the consequent runoff. The aim of this work was to (a) utilize the dynamic variations in the isotopic composition in rainfall and runoff and model the magnitude of surface-storage capacity associated with runoff processes of overland flow, and (b) characterize the isotopic composition of the percolating water with respect to the isotopic distribution in rainfall and runoff events. The conceptual model postulates an isotopic mixing of overland flow with water within the depression storage. A transport model was then formulated in order to estimate the physical watershed parameters that control the development of overland flow from a certain rainfall period. Part I (this paper) presents the results and the assessment of the relative depression storage obtained from oxygen-18 and deuterium analyses that lead to the physical and mathematical formulation of a double-component model of kinematic-wave flow and transport, which is presented in Part II (accompanying paper). Résumé Les variations temporelles, en zone aride, de la composition isotopique

  4. Hydrological Modelling Using a Rainfall Simulator over an Experimental Hillslope Plot

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arpit Chouksey


    Full Text Available Hydrological processes are complex to compute in hilly areas when compared to plain areas. The governing processes behind runoff generation on hillslopes are subsurface storm flow, saturation excess flow, overland flow, return flow and pipe storage. The simulations of the above processes in the soil matrix require detailed hillslope hydrological modelling. In the present study, a hillslope experimental plot has been designed to study the runoff generation processes on the plot scale. The setup is designed keeping in view the natural hillslope conditions prevailing in the Northwestern Himalayas, India where high intensity rainfall events occur frequently. A rainfall simulator was installed over the experimental hillslope plot to generate rainfall with an intensity of 100 mm/h, which represents the dominating rainfall intensity range in the region. Soil moisture sensors were also installed at variable depths from 100 to 1000 mm at different locations of the plot to observe the soil moisture regime. From the experimental observations it was found that once the soil is saturated, it remains at field capacity for the next 24–36 h. Such antecedent moisture conditions are most favorable for the generation of rapid stormflow from hillslopes. A dye infiltration test was performed on the undisturbed soil column to observe the macropore fraction variability over the vegetated hillslopes. The estimated macropore fractions are used as essential input for the hillslope hydrological model. The main objective of the present study was to develop and test a method for estimating runoff responses from natural rainfall over hillslopes of the Northwestern Himalayas using a portable rainfall simulator. Using the experimental data and the developed conceptual model, the overland flow and the subsurface flow through a macropore-dominated area have been estimated/analyzed. The surface and subsurface runoff estimated using the developed hillslope hydrological model

  5. Comparative Analysis of Uncertainties in Urban Surface Runoff Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Schaarup-Jensen, Kjeld


    In the present paper a comparison between three different surface runoff models, in the numerical urban drainage tool MOUSE, is conducted. Analysing parameter uncertainty, it is shown that the models are very sensitive with regards to the choice of hydrological parameters, when combined overflow...... analysis, further research in improved parameter assessment for surface runoff models is needed....

  6. Hydrologic conditions and quality of rainfall and storm runoff for two agricultural areas of the Oso Creek Watershed, Nueces County, Texas, 2005-07 (United States)

    Ockerman, Darwin J.


    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas State Soil and Water Conservation Board, Coastal Bend Bays and Estuaries Program, and Texas AgriLife Research and Extension Center at Corpus Christi, studied hydrologic conditions and quality of rainfall and storm runoff of two (primarily) agricultural areas (subwatersheds) of the Oso Creek watershed in Nueces County, Texas. One area, the upper West Oso Creek subwatershed, is 5,145 acres. The other area, a subwatershed drained by an unnamed Oso Creek tributary (hereinafter, Oso Creek tributary), is 5,287 acres. Rainfall and runoff (streamflow) were continuously monitored at the outlets of the two subwatersheds during October 2005-September 2007. Fourteen rainfall samples were collected and analyzed for nutrients and major inorganic ions. Nineteen composite runoff samples (10 West Oso Creek, nine Oso Creek tributary) were collected and analyzed for nutrients, major inorganic ions, and pesticides. Twenty-two discrete suspended-sediment samples (10 West Oso Creek, 12 Oso Creek tributary) and 13 bacteria samples (eight West Oso Creek, five Oso Creek tributary) were collected and analyzed. These data were used to estimate, for selected constituents, rainfall deposition to and runoff loads and yields from the study subwatersheds. Quantities of fertilizers and pesticides applied in the subwatersheds were compared with quantities of nutrients and pesticides in rainfall and runoff. For the study period, total rainfall was greater than average. Most of the runoff at both subwatershed outlet sites occurred in response to a few specific storm periods. The West Oso Creek subwatershed produced more runoff during the study period than the Oso Creek tributary subwatershed, 10.83 inches compared with 7.28 inches. Runoff response was quicker and peak flows were higher in the West Oso Creek subwatershed than in the Oso Creek tributary subwatershed. Total nitrogen runoff yield for the 2-year study period averaged 2.61 pounds

  7. Hydrologic conditions and water quality of rainfall and storm runoff for two agricultural areas of the Oso Creek watershed, Nueces County, Texas, 2005-08 (United States)

    Ockerman, Darwin J.; Fernandez, Carlos J.


    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas State Soil and Water Conservation Board, Coastal Bend Bays and Estuaries Program, and Texas AgriLife Research and Extension Center at Corpus Christi, studied hydrologic conditions and water quality of rainfall and storm runoff of two primarily agricultural subwatersheds of the Oso Creek watershed in Nueces County, Texas. One area, the upper West Oso Creek subwatershed, is about 5,145 acres. The other area, a subwatershed drained by an unnamed tributary to Oso Creek (hereinafter, Oso Creek tributary), is about 5,287 acres. Rainfall and runoff (streamflow) were continuously monitored at the outlets of the two subwatersheds during the study period October 2005-September 2008. Seventeen rainfall samples were collected and analyzed for nutrients and major inorganic ions. Twenty-four composite runoff water-quality samples (12 at West Oso Creek, 12 at Oso Creek tributary) were collected and analyzed for nutrients, major inorganic ions, and pesticides. Twenty-six discrete suspended-sediment samples (12 West Oso Creek, 14 Oso Creek tributary) and 17 bacteria samples (10 West Oso Creek, 7 Oso Creek tributary) were collected and analyzed. These data were used to estimate, for selected constituents, rainfall deposition to and runoff loads and yields from the two subwatersheds. Quantities of fertilizers and pesticides applied in the two subwatersheds were compared with quantities of nutrients and pesticides in rainfall and runoff. For the study period, total rainfall was greater than average. Most of the runoff from the two subwatersheds occurred in response to a few specific storm periods. The West Oso Creek subwatershed produced more runoff during the study period than the Oso Creek tributary subwatershed, 13.95 inches compared with 9.45 inches. Runoff response was quicker and peak flows were higher in the West Oso Creek subwatershed than in the Oso Creek tributary subwatershed. Total nitrogen runoff yield for the 3

  8. The effects on the characteristics of urban storm runoff due to the space allocation of design rainfall and the partition of the subbasin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Jong Tae; Lee, Sang Tae [Kyonggi University, Suwon (Korea, Republic of)


    The influences of the space allocation of design rainfall and partition of the subbasin on the characteristics of urban storm runoff was investigated for the 6 drainage basins by applying SWMM model. It shows the deviation of -54.68{approx}+18.77% in the peak discharge when we applied the composed HUFF quantities to the two zones which are divided by upper and lower region of the basin. Then it is compared with the value for the case of using uniform rainfall distribution all over the drainage. Therefore, it would be helpful to decrease the flood risk when we adopt the space distribution of the design rainfall. The effects of the partitioning the drainage on the computing result shows various responses because of the surface characteristics of the each basin such as slope, imperviousness ratio, but we can get closer result to the measured value as we make the subbasin detailed. If we use the concept of the skewness and area ratio when we determine the width of subbasin, we can improve the computed result even with fewer number of subbasins. We expect reasonable results which close into the measured results in the range of relative error, 25%, when we divide the basin into more than 3 subbasins and the total urban drainage area is less than 10 km{sup 2}. (author). 25 refs., 8 tabs., 7 figs.

  9. Urban Runoff and Water Quality Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Jong Tae [Kyonggi University, Suwon (Korea)


    The characteristics of storm and water quality are investigated based on the measuring data of the test river, the Hongje. The water quality of the test river is generally good comparing to other urban rivers in Seoul, because of the interception of sewer flow. But this system makes the river dry up for 3-4 months in winter. On the other hand, in rainy period the storm from the combined sewer system causes rapid increasing pollutants loads. In order to simulate the urban storm and water quality of the test basin, the models such as SWMM, ILLUDAS, STORM, HEC-1 were applied and the results are compared in its applicability and accuracy aspects. All models discussed here have shown good results and it seems that SWMM is the most effective model in simulating both quantity and quality. Also, regression relations between the water quantity and quality were derived and their applicabilities were discussed. This regression model is a simple effective tool for estimating the pollutant loads in the rainy period, but if the amount of discharge is bigger than measuring range of raw data, the accuracy becomes poor. This model could be supplemented by expanding the range of collecting data and introducing the river characteristics. The HEC-1 would be another effective model to simulate storm runoff of a river basin including urban area. (author). 15 refs., 13 tabs., 13 figs.

  10. Risk-assessment of post-wildfire hydrological response in semi-arid basins: The effects of varying rainfall representations in the KINEROS2/AGWA model (United States)

    Representation of precipitation is one of the most difficult aspects of modeling post-fire runoff and erosion and also one of the most sensitive input parameters to rainfall-runoff models. The impact of post-fire convective rainstorms, especially in semi-arid watersheds, depends on the overlap betwe...

  11. Evaluation of Maximum a Posteriori Estimation as Data Assimilation Method for Forecasting Infiltration-Inflow Affected Urban Runoff with Radar Rainfall Input

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonas W. Pedersen


    Full Text Available High quality on-line flow forecasts are useful for real-time operation of urban drainage systems and wastewater treatment plants. This requires computationally efficient models, which are continuously updated with observed data to provide good initial conditions for the forecasts. This paper presents a way of updating conceptual rainfall-runoff models using Maximum a Posteriori estimation to determine the most likely parameter constellation at the current point in time. This is done by combining information from prior parameter distributions and the model goodness of fit over a predefined period of time that precedes the forecast. The method is illustrated for an urban catchment, where flow forecasts of 0–4 h are generated by applying a lumped linear reservoir model with three cascading reservoirs. Radar rainfall observations are used as input to the model. The effects of different prior standard deviations and lengths of the auto-calibration period on the resulting flow forecast performance are evaluated. We were able to demonstrate that, if properly tuned, the method leads to a significant increase in forecasting performance compared to a model without continuous auto-calibration. Delayed responses and erratic behaviour in the parameter variations are, however, observed and the choice of prior distributions and length of auto-calibration period is not straightforward.

  12. Effect of rainfall and tillage direction on the evolution of surface crusts, soil hydraulic properties and runoff generation for a sandy loam soil


    Ndiaye, B.; Esteves, Michel; Vandervaere, J.P.; Lapetite, Jean-Michel; Vauclin, Michel


    The study was aimed at evaluating the effect of rainfall and tillage-induced soil surface characteristics on infiltration and runoff on a 2.8 ha catchment located in the central region of Senegal. This was done by simulating 30 min rain storms applied at a constant rate of about 70 mm h(-1), on 10 runoff microplots of 2 m(2), five being freshly harrowed perpendicularly to the slope and five along the slope (1%) of the catchment. Runoff was automatically recorded at the outlet of each plot. Hy...

  13. Impacts of Rainfall and Forest Cover Change on Runoff in Small ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The impacts of climate change on water resources have received much attention globally especially in the last 30 years. Rainfall, the main driver of the hydrological cycle, has been varying in parts of the world in various ways. The picture is more complicated if impacts of land cover changes on water resources are also ...

  14. impacts of rainfall and forest cover change on runoff in small

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    was used in this study was for Makoka Research meteoro- logical station and was collected from the Department of. Meteorological Services in Blantyre for the period from. 1958 to 2003. Average annual rainfall in Namadzi catch- ment for the station at Makoka for the period 1959 to. 2003 is 997 mm/year. The Namadzi River ...

  15. The dynamic growth performance of maize on runoff and sediment reduction on the Loess Plateau, China: A plot rainfall simulation approach (United States)

    Wang, Linhua; Keesstra, Saskia; Cerdà, Artemi; Ma, Bo; Wu, Faqi


    Soil erosion on agricultural land has been identified as an environmental issue in the Loess Plateau, China. Maize is one of the major crops on this region. However, limited studies have investigated runoff and sediment loss from sloped farmland during maize growth season and their roles in controlling runoff and sediment acted as one of vegetation types. In this paper, we investigated the impacts of growth maize (R1-R5 growth season) on reducing runoff and sediment in laboratory plot under simulated rainfall conditions. And bare plots were set as control group. The simulated rainfall was conducted at 80 mm h-1 for one hour at 4.0 m2 plot with three slope gradients (5˚ , 10˚ , 15˚ ). Two indices, runoff reduction benefits (RRB) and sediment reduction benefits (SRB), were selected to evaluate the effects of maize on controlling runoff and sediment. The results showed that the presence of growth maize delayed the runoff initiation time and were effective in reducing the magnitude of runoff and sediment loss as well as improving infiltration amount. With the growth of maize, the capacity of maize in reducing runoff and sediment loss increased and decreased as the slope increased. The RRB for R1-R5 in three slopes were 9.1-63.4%, 8.5-56.7%, 14.9-53.4%, respectively and the corresponding SRB were 19.9-90.0%, 25.9-89.6% and 16.8-70.8%, respectively. In particular, the SRB was greater than the RRB, indicating that the benefits from sediment reduction were more effective than the benefits from runoff production. Since the agricultural land is main source of sediment in the Yellow River, these results could provide insights into the growth performance of maize in reducing runoff and sediment on sloping cropland on the Loess Plateau region.

  16. Calibration of infiltration parameters on hydrological tank model using runoff coefficient of rational method (United States)

    Suryoputro, Nugroho; Suhardjono, Soetopo, Widandi; Suhartanto, Ery


    In calibrating hydrological models, there are generally two stages of activity: 1) determining realistic model initial parameters in representing natural component physical processes, 2) entering initial parameter values which are then processed by trial error or automatically to obtain optimal values. To determine a realistic initial value, it takes experience and user knowledge of the model. This is a problem for beginner model users. This paper will present another approach to estimate the infiltration parameters in the tank model. The parameters will be approximated by the runoff coefficient of rational method. The value approach of infiltration parameter is simply described as the result of the difference in the percentage of total rainfall minus the percentage of runoff. It is expected that the results of this research will accelerate the calibration process of tank model parameters. The research was conducted on the sub-watershed Kali Bango in Malang Regency with an area of 239,71 km2. Infiltration measurements were carried out in January 2017 to March 2017. Analysis of soil samples at Soil Physics Laboratory, Department of Soil Science, Faculty of Agriculture, Universitas Brawijaya. Rainfall and discharge data were obtained from UPT PSAWS Bango Gedangan in Malang. Temperature, evaporation, relative humidity, wind speed data was obtained from BMKG station of Karang Ploso, Malang. The results showed that the infiltration coefficient at the top tank outlet can be determined its initial value by using the approach of the coefficient of runoff rational method with good result.

  17. Censored rainfall modelling for estimation of fine-scale extremes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Cross


    Full Text Available Reliable estimation of rainfall extremes is essential for drainage system design, flood mitigation, and risk quantification. However, traditional techniques lack physical realism and extrapolation can be highly uncertain. In this study, we improve the physical basis for short-duration extreme rainfall estimation by simulating the heavy portion of the rainfall record mechanistically using the Bartlett–Lewis rectangular pulse (BLRP model. Mechanistic rainfall models have had a tendency to underestimate rainfall extremes at fine temporal scales. Despite this, the simple process representation of rectangular pulse models is appealing in the context of extreme rainfall estimation because it emulates the known phenomenology of rainfall generation. A censored approach to Bartlett–Lewis model calibration is proposed and performed for single-site rainfall from two gauges in the UK and Germany. Extreme rainfall estimation is performed for each gauge at the 5, 15, and 60 min resolutions, and considerations for censor selection discussed.

  18. Investigating source water Cryptosporidium concentration, species and infectivity rates during rainfall-runoff in a multi-use catchment. (United States)

    Swaffer, Brooke A; Vial, Hayley M; King, Brendon J; Daly, Robert; Frizenschaf, Jacqueline; Monis, Paul T


    Protozoan pathogens present a significant human health concern, and prevention of contamination into potable networks remains a key focus for drinking water providers. Here, we monitored the change in Cryptosporidium concentration in source water during high flow events in a multi-use catchment. Furthermore, we investigated the diversity of Cryptosporidium species/genotypes present in the source water, and delivered an oocyst infectivity fraction. There was a positive and significant correlation between Cryptosporidium concentration and flow (ρ = 0.756) and turbidity (ρ = 0.631) for all rainfall-runoff events, despite variable source water pathogen concentrations. Cell culture assays measured oocyst infectivity and suggested an overall source water infectious fraction of 3.1%. No infectious Cryptosporidium parvum or Cryptosporidium hominis were detected, although molecular testing detected C. parvum in 7% of the samples analysed using PCR-based molecular techniques. Twelve Cryptosporidium species/genotypes were identified using molecular techniques, and were reflective of the host animals typically found in remnant vegetation and agricultural areas. The inclusion of molecular approaches to identify Cryptosporidium species and genotypes highlighted the diversity of pathogens in water, which originated from various sources across the catchment. We suggest this mixing of runoff water from a range of landuses containing diverse Cryptosporidium hosts is a key explanation for the often-cited difficulty forming strong pathogen-indicator relationships. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Analysing surface runoff and erosion responses to different land uses from the NE of Iberian Peninsula through rainfall simulation (United States)

    Regüés, David; Arnáez, José; Badía, David; Cerdà, Artemi; Echeverría, María Teresa; Gispert, María; Lana-Renault, Noemí; Lasanta, Teodoro; León, Javier; Nadal-Romero, Estela; Pardini, Giovanni


    Rainfall simulation experiments are being used by soil scientists, geomorphologists, and hydrologist to study runoff generation and erosion processes. The use of different apparatus with different rainfall intensities and size of the wetted area contribute to determine the most vulnerable soils and land uses (Cerdá, 1998; Cerdà et al., 2009; Nadal-Romero et al., 2011; Martínez-Murillo et al., 2013; León et al., 2014). This research aims to determine the land uses that yield more sediments and water and to know the factors that control the differences. The information from 152 experiments of rainfall simulation was jointly analysed. Experiments were done in 17 land uses (natural forest, tree plantation, burned forest, scrub, meadows, crops and badlands), with contrasted exposition (north-south), and vegetation cover variety and/or density. These situations were selected from four geographic contexts (NE of Catalonia, high and medium lands from the Ebro valley and Southern range of central Pyrenees) with significant altitude variations, between 90 and 1000 meters above sea level, which represent the heterogeneity of the Mediterranean climate. The use of similar rainfall simulation apparatus, with the same spray nozzle, spraying components and plot size, favours the comparison of the results. A wide spectrum of precipitation intensities was applied, in order to reach surface runoff generation in all cases. Results showed significant differences in runoff amounts and erosion rates, which were mainly associated with land uses, even more than precipitation differences. Runoff coefficient shows an inversed exponential relationship with rainfall intensity, which is the opposite what could be previously expected (Ziadat and Taimeh, 2013). This may be only justified by land use characteristics because a direct effect between runoff generation intensity and soil degradation conditions, with respect vegetation covers features and density, was observed. In fact, even though

  20. Application of pesticide transport model for simulating diazinon runoff in California’s central valley (United States)

    Joyce, Brian A.; Wallender, Wesley W.; Mailapalli, Damodhara R.


    Dormant spray application of pesticides to almond and other stone fruit orchards is the main source of diazinon during the winter in California's central valley. Understanding the pesticide transport and the tradeoffs associated with the various management practices is greatly facilitated by the use of physically-based contaminant transport models. In this study, performance of Joyce's et al. (2008) pesticide transport model was evaluated using experimental data collected from two ground treatments such as resident vegetation and bare soil. The model simulation results obtained in calibration and validation process were analyzed for pesticide concentration and total load. The pesticide transport model accurately predicted the pesticide concentrations and total load in the runoff from bare field and was capable of simulating chemical responses to rainfall-runoff events. In case of resident vegetation, the model results exhibited a larger range of variation than was observed in the bare soil simulations due to increased model parameterization with the addition of foliage and thatch compartments. Furthermore, the model was applied to study the effect of runoff lag time, extent of crop cover, organic content of soil and post-application irrigation on the pesticide peak concentration and total load. Based on the model results, recommendations were suggested to growers prior to implementing certain management decisions to mitigate diazinon transport in the orchard's spray runoff.

  1. Coffee husk mulch on soil erosion and runoff: experiences under rainfall simulation experiment (United States)

    Moreno-Ramón, H.; Quizembe, S. J.; Ibáñez-Asensio, S.


    The high erosion rates found in the agriculture land make valuable the use of mulches to control the soil and water losses. Coffee husk (Coffea canephora var. robusta) can be one of those mulches. This paper evaluates how to apply the mulch in order to obtain the best effectiveness. An experimental factorial design 4 × 3 × 2 with two replicates was designed in a greenhouse with a total number of 48 cases. All the samples were deposited in trays of 0.51 m2 and applied a simulated rain of 122 mm h-1 during 21 min. The factors examined were the following: four soil classes; three treatments - buried (B), surface (S) and non-residue (C) - and the presence (WC) or absence (WOC) of the soil surface crusting. The coffee husk residue (S and B treatments) reduced runoff by 10.2 and 46% respectively, soil losses by 78.3 and 88.7% and sediment concentration by 77 and 84.4%. The infiltration rate increased on average by 104 and 167%, and time to runoff by 1.58 and 2.07 min respectively. Coffee husk is an efficient mulch to reduce the soil and water losses, although it could not completely cushion the influence of crust.

  2. Heavy rains and extreme rainfall-runoff events in Central Europe from 1951 to 2002

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Müller


    Full Text Available Runoff data were used to better select historically significant precipitation events. The suggested criterion Qx expresses the increase of a stream runoff over up to four days in a row. Tests confirmed that Qx maxima correspond to maxima of areal precipitation in the respective catchment. Ten significant precipitation events in summer half-years from 1951 to 2002 were selected in 25 catchments each, and further studied in respect to spatial extent, simultaneous occurrence in various river basins, seasonal distribution, and temporal variability. Four regions were recognised within Central Europe that show related seasonality and simultaneous occurrence of events. The main coincidence of significant precipitation events was confirmed between the Austrian Alps and Bohemia and Saxony on one hand, and Moravia, Silesia, and Western Slovakia on the other hand. Significant events typically emerge here during peak summer, in the south-eastern area of the Alps during autumn months, in the South-Eastern Carpathians from May to July, and in Western Germany in spring or autumn. Episodes with less significant precipitation events (around 1960 and 1990 alternate with inverse episodes (1970's, second half of the 1990's. A reasonable selection of reference events opens the door to a quantitative evaluation of dynamic and thermodynamic conditions typical for heavy rains in various parts of Central Europe.

  3. Runoff-generated debris flows: observations and modeling of surge initiation, magnitude, and frequency (United States)

    Kean, Jason W.; McCoy, Scott W.; Tucker, Gregory E.; Staley, Dennis M.; Coe, Jeffrey A.


    Runoff during intense rainstorms plays a major role in generating debris flows in many alpine areas and burned steeplands. Yet compared to debris flow initiation from shallow landslides, the mechanics by which runoff generates a debris flow are less understood. To better understand debris flow initiation by surface water runoff, we monitored flow stage and rainfall associated with debris flows in the headwaters of two small catchments: a bedrock-dominated alpine basin in central Colorado (0.06 km2) and a recently burned area in southern California (0.01 km2). We also obtained video footage of debris flow initiation and flow dynamics from three cameras at the Colorado site. Stage observations at both sites display distinct patterns in debris flow surge characteristics relative to rainfall intensity (I). We observe small, quasiperiodic surges at low I; large, quasiperiodic surges at intermediate I; and a single large surge followed by small-amplitude fluctuations about a more steady high flow at high I. Video observations of surge formation lead us to the hypothesis that these flow patterns are controlled by upstream variations in channel slope, in which low-gradient sections act as “sediment capacitors,” temporarily storing incoming bed load transported by water flow and periodically releasing the accumulated sediment as a debris flow surge. To explore this hypothesis, we develop a simple one-dimensional morphodynamic model of a sediment capacitor that consists of a system of coupled equations for water flow, bed load transport, slope stability, and mass flow. This model reproduces the essential patterns in surge magnitude and frequency with rainfall intensity observed at the two field sites and provides a new framework for predicting the runoff threshold for debris flow initiation in a burned or alpine setting.

  4. A CN-Based Ensembled Hydrological Model for Enhanced Watershed Runoff Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Ajmal


    Full Text Available A major structural inconsistency of the traditional curve number (CN model is its dependence on an unstable fixed initial abstraction, which normally results in sudden jumps in runoff estimation. Likewise, the lack of pre-storm soil moisture accounting (PSMA procedure is another inherent limitation of the model. To circumvent those problems, we used a variable initial abstraction after ensembling the traditional CN model and a French four-parameter (GR4J model to better quantify direct runoff from ungauged watersheds. To mimic the natural rainfall-runoff transformation at the watershed scale, our new parameterization designates intrinsic parameters and uses a simple structure. It exhibited more accurate and consistent results than earlier methods in evaluating data from 39 forest-dominated watersheds, both for small and large watersheds. In addition, based on different performance evaluation indicators, the runoff reproduction results show that the proposed model produced more consistent results for dry, normal, and wet watershed conditions than the other models used in this study.

  5. Regionalising Parameters of a Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Journal of Civil Engineering Research and Practice. Journal Home · ABOUT · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 4, No 2 (2007) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads.

  6. Application of Ihacres Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model to Simulate ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Journal of Civil Engineering Research and Practice. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 5, No 2 (2008) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads.

  7. Rainfall forecast in the Upper Mahaweli basin in Sri Lanka using RegCM model (United States)

    Muhammadh, K. M.; Mafas, M. M. M.; Weerakoon, S. B.


    The Upper Mahaweli basin is the upper most sub basin of 788 km2 in size above Polgolla barrage in the Mahaweli River, the longest river in Sri Lanka which starts from the central hills of the island and drains to the sea at the North-east coast. Rainfall forecast in the Upper Mahaweli basin is important for issuing flood warning in the river downstream of the reservoirs, landslide warning in the settlements in hilly areas. Anticipatory water management in the basin including reservoir operations, barrage gate operation for releasing water for irrigation and flood control also require reliable rainfall and runoff prediction in the sub basin. In this study, the Regional Climate Model (RegCM V4.4.5.11) is calibrated for the basin to dynamically downscale reanalysis weather data of Global Climate Model (GCM) to forecast the rainfall in the basin. Observed rainfalls at gauging stations within the basin were used for model calibration and validation. The observed rainfall data was analysed using ARC GIS and the output of RegCM was analysed using GrADS tool. The output of the model and the observed precipitation were obtained on grids of size 0.1 degrees and the accuracy of the predictions were analysed using RMSE and Mean Model Absolute Error percentage (MAME %). The predictions by the calibrated RegCM model for the basin is shown to be satisfactory. The model is a useful tool for rainfall forecast in the Upper Mahaweli River basin.

  8. Robust Initial Wetness Condition Framework of an Event-Based Rainfall–Runoff Model Using Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wooyeon Sunwoo


    Full Text Available Runoff prediction in limited-data areas is vital for hydrological applications, such as the design of infrastructure and flood defenses, runoff forecasting, and water management. Rainfall–runoff models may be useful for simulation of runoff generation, particularly event-based models, which offer a practical modeling scheme because of their simplicity. However, there is a need to reduce the uncertainties related to the estimation of the initial wetness condition (IWC prior to a rainfall event. Soil moisture is one of the most important variables in rainfall–runoff modeling, and remotely sensed soil moisture is recognized as an effective way to improve the accuracy of runoff prediction. In this study, the IWC was evaluated based on remotely sensed soil moisture by using the Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN method, which is one of the representative event-based models used for reducing the uncertainty of runoff prediction. Four proxy variables for the IWC were determined from the measurements of total rainfall depth (API5, ground-based soil moisture (SSMinsitu, remotely sensed surface soil moisture (SSM, and soil water index (SWI provided by the advanced scatterometer (ASCAT. To obtain a robust IWC framework, this study consists of two main parts: the validation of remotely sensed soil moisture, and the evaluation of runoff prediction using four proxy variables with a set of rainfall–runoff events in the East Asian monsoon region. The results showed an acceptable agreement between remotely sensed soil moisture (SSM and SWI and ground based soil moisture data (SSMinsitu. In the proxy variable analysis, the SWI indicated the optimal value among the proposed proxy variables. In the runoff prediction analysis considering various infiltration conditions, the SSM and SWI proxy variables significantly reduced the runoff prediction error as compared with API5 by 60% and 66%, respectively. Moreover, the proposed IWC framework with

  9. Use of Generalised Linear Models to quantify rainfall input uncertainty to hydrological modelling in the Upper Nile (United States)

    Kigobe, M.; McIntyre, N.; Wheater, H. S.


    Interest in the application of climate and hydrological models in the Nile basin has risen in the recent past; however, the first drawback for most efforts has been the estimation of historic precipitation patterns. In this study we have applied stochastic models to infill and extend observed data sets to generate inputs for hydrological modelling. Several stochastic climate models within the Generalised Linear Modelling (GLM) framework have been applied to reproduce spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation in the Kyoga basin. A logistic regression model (describing rainfall occurrence) and a gamma distribution (describing rainfall amounts) are used to model rainfall patterns. The parameters of the models are functions of spatial and temporal covariates, and are fitted to the observed rainfall data using log-likelihood methods. Using the fitted model, multi-site rainfall sequences over the Kyoga basin are generated stochastically as a function of the dominant seasonal, climatic and geographic controls. The rainfall sequences generated are then used to drive a semi distributed hydrological model using the Soil Water and Assessment Tool (SWAT). The sensitivity of runoff to uncertainty associated with missing precipitation records is thus tested. In an application to the Lake Kyoga catchment, the performance of the hydrological model highly depends on the spatial representation of the input precipitation patterns, model parameterisation and the performance of the GLM stochastic models used to generate the input rainfall. The results obtained so far disclose that stochastic models can be developed for several climatic regions within the Kyoga basin; and, given identification of a stochastic rainfall model; input uncertainty due to precipitation can be usefully quantified. The ways forward for rainfall modelling and hydrological simulation in Uganda and the Upper Nile are discussed. Key Words: Precipitation, Generalised Linear Models, Input Uncertainty, Soil Water

  10. Estimating runoff from ungauged catchments using regional modelling


    Lobintceva, Ekaterina


    Establishing runoff series from ungauged catchment is a central challenge in hydrology. In Norway this is particularly evident in the design of small hydropower. The location of the power plant often is in small catchments with little little or no data available. The application of regional modeling for estimating runoff in ungauged catchments is one of the promising methods. The main goal of this study is to use ENKI hydrological model to calibrate free set of parameters which can be applied...

  11. Soil erosion measurements under organic and conventional land use treatments and different tillage systems using micro-scale runoff plots and a portable rainfall simulator (United States)

    Seitz, Steffen; Goebes, Philipp; Song, Zhengshan; Wittwer, Raphaël; van der Heijden, Marcel; Scholten, Thomas


    Soil erosion is a major environmental problem of our time and negatively affects soil organic matter (SOM), aggregate stability or nutrient availability for instance. It is well known that agricultural practices have a severe influence on soil erosion by water. Several long-term field trials show that the use of low input strategies (e.g. organic farming) instead of conventional high-input farming systems leads to considerable changes of soil characteristics. Organic farming relies on crop rotation, absence of agrochemicals, green manure and weed control without herbicides. As a consequence, SOM content in the top soil layer is usually higher than on arable land under conventional use. Furthermore, the soil surface is better protected against particle detachment and overland flow due to a continuous vegetation cover and a well-developed root system increases soil stability. Likewise, tillage itself can cause soil erosion on arable land. In this respect, conservation and reduced tillage systems like No-Till or Ridge-Till provide a protecting cover from the previous year's residue and reduce soil disturbance. Many studies have been carried out on the effect of farming practices on soil erosion, but with contrasting results. To our knowledge, most of those studies rely on soil erosion models to calculate soil erosion rates and replicated experimental field measurement designs are rarely used. In this study, we performed direct field assessment on a farming system trial in Rümlang, Switzerland (FAST: Farming System and Tillage experiment Agroscope) to investigate the effect of organic farming practises and tillage systems on soil erosion. A portable single nozzle rainfall simulator and a light weight tent have been used with micro-scale runoff plots (0.4 m x 0.4 m). Four treatments (Conventional/Tillage, Conventional/No-Tillage, Organic/Tillage, Organic/Reduced-tillage) have been sampled with 8 replications each for a total of 32 runoff plots. All plots have been

  12. Slope adjustment of runoff curve number (CN) using Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) for Kuantan River Basin (United States)

    Akbari, Abolghasem


    The Natural Resources Conservation Service Curve Number (NRCS-CN) method is widely used for predicting direct runoff from rainfall. It employs the hydrologic soil groups and landuse information along with period soil moisture conditions to derive NRCS-CN. This method has been well documented and available in popular rainfall-runoff models such as HEC-HMS, SWAT, SWMM and many more. The Sharply-Williams and Hank methods was used to adjust CN values provided in standard table of TR-55. The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) is used to derive slope map with spatial resolution of 30 m for Kuantan River Basin (KRB). The two investigated method stretches the conventional CN domain to the lower values. The study shows a successful application of remote sensing data and GIS tools in hydrological studies. The result of this work can be used for rainfall-runoff simulation and flood modeling in KRB.

  13. Turbid releases from Glen Canyon Dam, Arizona, following rainfall-runoff events of September 2013 (United States)

    Wildman, Richard A.; Vernieu, William


    Glen Canyon Dam is a large dam on the Colorado River in Arizona. In September 2013, it released turbid water following intense thunderstorms in the surrounding area. Turbidity was >15 nephelometric turbidity units (NTU) for multiple days and >30 NTU at its peak. These unprecedented turbid releases impaired downstream fishing activity and motivated a rapid-response field excursion. At 5 locations upstream from the dam, temperature, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll a, and turbidity were measured in vertical profiles. Local streamflow and rainfall records were retrieved, and turbidity and specific conductance data in dam releases were evaluated. Profiling was conducted to determine possible sources of turbidity from 3 tributaries nearest the dam, Navajo, Antelope, and Wahweap creeks, which entered Lake Powell as interflows during this study. We discuss 4 key conditions that must have been met for tributaries to influence turbidity of dam releases: tributary flows must have reached the dam, tributary flows must have been laden with sediment, inflow currents must have been near the depth of dam withdrawals, and the settling velocity of particles must have been slow. We isolate 2 key uncertainties that reservoir managers should resolve in future similar studies: the reach of tributary water into the reservoir thalweg and the distribution of particle size of suspended sediment. These uncertainties leave the source of the turbidity ambiguous, although an important role for Wahweap Creek is possible. The unique combination of limnological factors we describe implies that turbid releases at Glen Canyon Dam will continue to be rare.

  14. Estimation of runoff at Glen in the Free State Province of South Africai

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Runoff calculated for these two treatments provides information needed to simulate long-term crop yields using conventional tillage and in-field water harvesting. The PutuRun model was used to stochastically disaggregate daily rainfall data into shorter duration rainfall intensities and to simulate runoff for each rainfall event ...

  15. Development of Rainfall-Discharge Model for Future NPP candidate Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    An, Ji-hong; Yee, Eric [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)


    By this study, most suitable model for future nuclear power plant site in Yeongdeok to be used to predict peak amount of riverine flooding was developed by examining historical rainfall and discharge data from the nearest gage station which is Jodong water level gage station in Taehwa basin. Sitting a nuclear power plant (NPP) requires safety analyses that include the effects of extreme events such as flooding or earthquake. In light of South Korean government's 15-year power supply plan that calls for the construction of new nuclear power station in Yeongdeok, it becomes more important to site new station in a safe area from flooding. Because flooding or flooding related accidents mostly happen due to extremely intense rainfall, it is necessary to find out the relationship between rainfall and run-off by setting up feasible model to figure out the peak flow of the river around nuclear related facilities.

  16. Evaluating rainfall errors in global climate models through cloud regimes (United States)

    Tan, Jackson; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Jakob, Christian; Jin, Daeho


    Global climate models suffer from a persistent shortcoming in their simulation of rainfall by producing too much drizzle and too little intense rain. This erroneous distribution of rainfall is a result of deficiencies in the representation of underlying processes of rainfall formation. In the real world, clouds are precursors to rainfall and the distribution of clouds is intimately linked to the rainfall over the area. This study examines the model representation of tropical rainfall using the cloud regime concept. In observations, these cloud regimes are derived from cluster analysis of joint-histograms of cloud properties retrieved from passive satellite measurements. With the implementation of satellite simulators, comparable cloud regimes can be defined in models. This enables us to contrast the rainfall distributions of cloud regimes in 11 CMIP5 models to observations and decompose the rainfall errors by cloud regimes. Many models underestimate the rainfall from the organized convective cloud regime, which in observation provides half of the total rain in the tropics. Furthermore, these rainfall errors are relatively independent of the model's accuracy in representing this cloud regime. Error decomposition reveals that the biases are compensated in some models by a more frequent occurrence of the cloud regime and most models exhibit substantial cancellation of rainfall errors from different regimes and regions. Therefore, underlying relatively accurate total rainfall in models are significant cancellation of rainfall errors from different cloud types and regions. The fact that a good representation of clouds does not lead to appreciable improvement in rainfall suggests a certain disconnect in the cloud-precipitation processes of global climate models.

  17. A test-tube model for rainfall (United States)

    Wilkinson, Michael


    If the temperature of a cell containing two partially miscible liquids is changed very slowly, so that the miscibility is decreased, microscopic droplets nucleate, grow and migrate to the interface due to their buoyancy. The system may show an approximately periodic variation of the turbidity of the mixture, as the mean droplet size fluctuates. These precipitation events are analogous to rainfall. This paper considers a theoretical model for these experiments. After nucleation the initial growth is by Ostwald ripening, followed by a finite-time runaway growth of droplet sizes due to larger droplets sweeping up smaller ones. The model predicts that the period \\Delta t and the temperature sweep rate ξ are related by \\Delta t\\sim C \\xi^{-3/7} , and is in good agreement with experiments. The coefficient C has a power-law divergence approaching the critical point of the miscibility transition: C\\sim (T-T_{\\text{c}})^{-\\eta} , and the critical exponent η is determined. It is argued that while the mechanism does not provide a quantitative description of terrestrial rainfall, it may be a faithful model for precipitation on other planets.

  18. Stochastic modelling of daily rainfall sequences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buishand, T.A.


    Rainfall series of different climatic regions were analysed with the aim of generating daily rainfall sequences. A survey of the data is given in I, 1. When analysing daily rainfall sequences one must be aware of the following points:
    a. Seasonality. Because of seasonal variation

  19. Virtual lab for learning equipment and treatment of experimental measurements of rainfall, runoff and erosion in small rural catchments (United States)

    Ángel Bajo, José; Redel-Macías, María Dolores; Nichols, Mary; Pérez, Rafael; Bellido, Francisco; Marín-Moreno, Víctor; Taguas, Encarnación V.


    A virtual lab for learning to use devices and to treat experimental measurements of hydrological and erosive processes in small agricultural catchments was created to support the practical content of the subject Restoration of Forest Ecosystems of the Master of Forest Engineer (University of Cordoba). The objective was to build a virtual place representing a real site equipped to make measurements of rainfall, runoff and sediment concentration. The virtual lab included pictures, videos and explanations that facilitate learning. Moreover, some practical cases were proposed to apply the explained terms. The structure of menu consisted of: Experimental measurements in catchments; Gallery of videos; Equipment; Practical case; Glossary and Additional Information. Their contents were carefully carried out by professors and scientists of Hydrology and Electronics. The main advantages of the virtual lab were its compatibility with on-line platforms such as Moodle and the presentation of examples for the direct analysis as a basis for solving the proposed practical cases. It has been successfully used for two years and was well-values by the students due the opportunities offered by self-access learning tools. In addition, constraints associated with field trips such as logistical complexity and economic aspects are removed.

  20. A multi basin SWAT model analysis of runoff and sedimentation in the Blue Nile, Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. M. Easton


    Full Text Available A multi basin analysis of runoff and erosion in the Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia was conducted to elucidate sources of runoff and sediment. Erosion is arguably the most critical problem in the Blue Nile Basin, as it limits agricultural productivity in Ethiopia, degrades benthos in the Nile, and results in sedimentation of dams in downstream countries. A modified version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model was developed to predict runoff and sediment losses from the Ethiopian Blue Nile Basin. The model simulates saturation excess runoff from the landscape using a simple daily water balance coupled to a topographic wetness index in ways that are consistent with observed runoff processes in the basin. The spatial distribution of landscape erosion is thus simulated more correctly. The model was parameterized in a nested design for flow at eight and sediment at three locations in the basin. Subbasins ranged in size from 1.3 to 174 000 km2, and interestingly, the partitioning of runoff and infiltrating flow could be predicted by topographic information. Model predictions showed reasonable accuracy (Nash Sutcliffe Efficiencies ranged from 0.53–0.92 with measured data across all sites except Kessie, where the water budget could not be closed; however, the timing of flow was well captured. Runoff losses increased with rainfall during the monsoonal season and were greatest from areas with shallow soils and large contributing areas. Analysis of model results indicate that upland landscape erosion dominated sediment delivery to the main stem of the Blue Nile in the early part of the growing season when tillage occurs and before the soil was wetted up and plant cover was established. Once plant cover was established in mid August landscape erosion was negligible and sediment export was dominated by channel processes and re-suspension of landscape sediment deposited early in the growing season. These results imply that targeting small

  1. Physically based modelling of sediment generation and transport under a large rainfall simulator (United States)

    Adams, Russell; Elliott, Sandy


    A series of large rainfall simulator experiments was conducted in 2002 and 2003 on a small plot located in an experimental catchment in the North Island of New Zealand. These experiments measured both runoff and sediment transport under carefully controlled conditions. A physically based hydrological modelling system (SHETRAN) was then applied to reproduce the observed hydrographs and sedigraphs. SHETRAN uses physically based equations to represent flow and sediment transport, and two erodibility coefficients to model detachment of soil particles by raindrop erosion and overland flow erosion. The rate of raindrop erosion also depended on the amount of bare ground under the simulator; this was estimated before each experiment. These erodibility coefficients were calibrated systematically for summer and winter experiments separately, and lower values were obtained for the summer experiments. Earlier studies using small rainfall simulators in the vicinity of the plot also found the soil to be less erodible in summer and autumn. Limited validation of model parameters was carried out using results from a series of autumn experiments. The modelled suspended sediment load was also sensitive to parameters controlling the generation of runoff from the rainfall simulator plot; therefore, we found that accurate runoff predictions were important for the sediment predictions, especially from the experiments where the pasture cover was good and overland flow erosion was the dominant mechanism. The rainfall simulator experiments showed that the mass of suspended sediment increased post-grazing, and according to the model this was due to raindrop detachment. The results indicated that grazing cattle or sheep on steeply sloping hill-country paddocks should be carefully managed, especially in winter, to limit the transport of suspended sediment into watercourses.

  2. Enabling high-quality observations of surface imperviousness for water runoff modelling from unmanned aerial vehicles (United States)

    Tokarczyk, Piotr; Leitao, Joao Paulo; Rieckermann, Jörg; Schindler, Konrad; Blumensaat, Frank


    Modelling rainfall-runoff in urban areas is increasingly applied to support flood risk assessment particularly against the background of a changing climate and an increasing urbanization. These models typically rely on high-quality data for rainfall and surface characteristics of the area. While recent research in urban drainage has been focusing on providing spatially detailed rainfall data, the technological advances in remote sensing that ease the acquisition of detailed land-use information are less prominently discussed within the community. The relevance of such methods increase as in many parts of the globe, accurate land-use information is generally lacking, because detailed image data is unavailable. Modern unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) allow acquiring high-resolution images on a local level at comparably lower cost, performing on-demand repetitive measurements, and obtaining a degree of detail tailored for the purpose of the study. In this study, we investigate for the first time the possibility to derive high-resolution imperviousness maps for urban areas from UAV imagery and to use this information as input for urban drainage models. To do so, an automatic processing pipeline with a modern classification method is tested and applied in a state-of-the-art urban drainage modelling exercise. In a real-life case study in the area of Lucerne, Switzerland, we compare imperviousness maps generated from a consumer micro-UAV and standard large-format aerial images acquired by the Swiss national mapping agency (swisstopo). After assessing their correctness, we perform an end-to-end comparison, in which they are used as an input for an urban drainage model. Then, we evaluate the influence which different image data sources and their processing methods have on hydrological and hydraulic model performance. We analyze the surface runoff of the 307 individual sub-catchments regarding relevant attributes, such as peak runoff and volume. Finally, we evaluate the model

  3. Simulation of river flow in the Thames over 120 years: Evidence of change in rainfall-runoff response?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.M. Crooks


    New hydrological insights: The generally close correspondence between observed and simulated flows using the same model parameter values for the whole period is indicative of the temporal stability of hydrological processes and catchment response, and the quality of the hydrometric data. Changes that have occurred are a decrease in flood peak response times, typically two to three days pre and post the early 1940s, from change in agricultural practices and channel conveyance, and an increase of about 15% in summer flow from increase in urban land cover between the first decade of the 20th and 21st centuries. The water balance was found to be sensitive to the PE data used, with care needed to avoid discontinuity between two parts of the data record using different methods for calculation. Long-term mean annual rainfall shows little change but contrasting patterns of variation in seasonal rainfall demonstrate a variable climate for which simulated flow is similar to observed flow.

  4. Development of urban runoff model FFC-QUAL for first-flush water-quality analysis in urban drainage basins. (United States)

    Hur, Sungchul; Nam, Kisung; Kim, Jungsoo; Kwak, Changjae


    An urban runoff model that is able to compute the runoff, the pollutant loadings, and the concentrations of water-quality constituents in urban drainages during the first flush was developed. This model, which is referred to as FFC-QUAL, was modified from the existing ILLUDAS model and added for use during the water-quality analysis process for dry and rainy periods. For the dry period, the specifications of the coefficients for the discharge and water quality were used. During rainfall, we used the Clark and time-area methods for the runoff analyses of pervious and impervious areas to consider the effects of the subbasin shape; moreover, four pollutant accumulation methods and the washoff equation for computing the water quality each time were used. According to the verification results, FFC-QUAL provides generally similar output as the measured data for the peak flow, total runoff volume, total loadings, peak concentration, and time of peak concentration for three rainfall events in the Gunja subbasin. In comparison with the ILLUDAS, SWMM, and MOUSE models, there is little difference between these models and the model developed in this study. The proposed model should be useful in urban watersheds because of its simplicity and its capacity to model common pollutants (e.g., biological oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand, Escherichia coli, suspended solids, and total nitrogen and phosphorous) in runoff. The proposed model can also be used in design studies to determine how changes in infrastructure will affect the runoff and pollution loads. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  5. Utilizing an urban runoff model and GIS to assess pollutant loading to Bayou Chico, Florida

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schell, T.T.; Simons, J.D.; Dickson, K.L.; Acevedo, M.F. [Univ. of North Texas, Denton, TX (United States). Inst. of Applied Science; Mayer, F.L. [Environmental Protection Agency, Gulf Breeze, FL (United States). Gulf Breeze Research Lab.


    This paper describes a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) analysis of the Bayou Chico watershed and its integration with the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) as part of a watershed approach to assessing the ecological health of this sub-estuary of Pensacola Bay. Bayou Chico is the receiving water body of a small, mostly residential and urban watershed located in southern Escambia County, Florida. The transport of pollutants into the bayou is primarily a function of precipitation. SWMM models the runoff from rainfall and uses the land use, size and physical characteristics of the watershed as factors in pollutant loading. The fate and transport of pollutants is represented by the flow of water through natural channelization as well as water management practices. A GIS database and the use of remotely sensed satellite images are used to determine the location of streets, storm drainage systems, surface runoff as well as the area and slope of the watershed. SWMM mathematically represents these physical characteristics and uses this information to determine both runoff and pollutant loading. Hydrographs and pollutographs from SWMM are to be then used in a transport and fate model (WASP). The authors discuss data required for SWMM, its analysis using GIS and model linkage with special attention given to the data acquisition and modeling process. Model results and calibration techniques will also be presented.

  6. Use of Fuzzy rainfall-runoff predictions for claypan watersheds with conservation buffers in Northeast Missouri (United States)

    Despite increased interest in watershed scale model simulations, literature lacks application of long-term data in fuzzy logic simulations and comparing outputs with physically based models such as APEX (Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender). The objective of this study was to develop a fuzzy...

  7. Comparison of short term rainfall forecasts for model based flow prediction in urban drainage systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Poulsen, Troels Sander; Bøvith, Thomas


    Forecast based flow prediction in drainage systems can be used to implement real time control of drainage systems. This study compares two different types of rainfall forecasts – a radar rainfall extrapolation based nowcast model and a numerical weather prediction model. The models are applied...... performance of the system is found using the radar nowcast for the short leadtimes and weather model for larger lead times....... as input to an urban runoff model predicting the inlet flow to a waste water treatment plant. The modelled flows are auto-calibrated against real time flow observations in order to certify the best possible forecast. Results show that it is possible to forecast flows with a lead time of 24 hours. The best...

  8. Comparison Of Short Term Rainfall Forecasts For Model Based Flow Prediction In Urban Drainage Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Poulsen, Troels Sander; Bøvith, Thomas


    Forecast based flow prediction in drainage systems can be used to implement real time control of drainage systems. This study compares two different types of rainfall forecasts – a radar rainfall extrapolation based nowcast model and a numerical weather prediction model. The models are applied...... performance of the system is found using the radar nowcast for the short leadtimes and weather model for larger lead times....... as input to an urban runoff model predicting the inlet flow to a waste water treatment plant. The modelled flows are auto-calibrated against real time flow observations in order to certify the best possible forecast. Results show that it is possible to forecast flows with a lead time of 24 hours. The best...

  9. A rainfall simulation model for agricultural development in Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Sayedur Rahman


    Full Text Available A rainfall simulation model based on a first-order Markov chain has been developed to simulate the annual variation in rainfall amount that is observed in Bangladesh. The model has been tested in the Barind Tract of Bangladesh. Few significant differences were found between the actual and simulated seasonal, annual and average monthly. The distribution of number of success is asymptotic normal distribution. When actual and simulated daily rainfall data were used to drive a crop simulation model, there was no significant difference of rice yield response. The results suggest that the rainfall simulation model perform adequately for many applications.

  10. Regionalization of runoff models derived by genetic programming (United States)

    Heřmanovský, M.; Havlíček, V.; Hanel, M.; Pech, P.


    The aim of this study is to assess the potential of hydrological models derived by genetic programming (GP) to estimate runoff at ungauged catchments by regionalization. A set of 176 catchments from the MOPEX (Model Parameter Estimation Experiment) project was used for our analysis. Runoff models for each catchment were derived by genetic programming (hereafter GP models). A comparison of efficiency was made between GP models and three conceptual models (SAC-SMA, BTOPMC, GR4J). The efficiency of the GP models was in general comparable with that of the SAC-SMA and BTOPMC models but slightly lower (up to 10% for calibration and 15% in validation) than for the GR4J model. The relationship between the efficiency of the GP models and catchment descriptors (CDs) was investigated. From 13 available CDs the aridity index and mean catchment elevation explained most of the variation in the efficiency of the GP models. The runoff for each catchment was then estimated considering GP models from single or multiple physically similar catchments (donors). Better results were obtained with multiple donor catchments. Increasing the number of CDs used for quantification of physical similarity improves the efficiency of the GP models in runoff simulation. The best regionalization results were obtained with 6 CDs together with 6 donors. Our results show that transfer of the GP models is possible and leads to satisfactory results when applied at physically similar catchments. The GP models can be therefore used as an alternative for runoff modelling at ungauged catchments if similar gauged catchments can be identified and successfully simulated.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)



    Full Text Available Estimating the tendency and the variability of the rainfallamount in Ialomita river basin and their influence upon the liquid run-off.The paper focuses on an analysis of the spatial and temporal variability of rainfallamounts (meteorological parameter from Ialomita River Basin and also theinfluence that rainfall has upon the liquid run-off, expressed by the mean monthlydischarges (hydrologic parameter in a common period of time (1961-2007.The study of the evolution of the above mentioned parameters has been basedupon the data recorded from 6 weather and river stations which we considered tobe representative for the studied area.For these weather stations we have used, calculated and statistically interpretedthe chronological data series of the mean monthly and annually rainfall amountswhile for the river stations we have taken into account the mean monthly andyearly liquid discharges.We have also tried to establish inter-connections between the two parameters,in order to demonstrate the tight link that is between them on both a time-spacescale and in a regional context.Any alteration of the liquid drainage is caused by alterations in the climaticsystem, mainly the rainfall patterns.In order to identify the tendencies in the dynamics of the rainfall amounts andthe mean liquid run-off and also to establish their statistic significance we haveused the Mann-Kendall test (with the help of MAKENSIS programme.

  12. On hydrologic similarity: A dimensionless flood frequency model using a generalized geomorphologic unit hydrograph and partial area runoff generation (United States)

    Sivapalan, Murugesu; Wood, Eric F.; Beven, Keith J.


    One of the shortcomings of the original theory of the geomorphologic unit hydrograph (GUH) is that it assumes that runoff is generated uniformly from the entire catchment area. It is now recognized that in many catchments much of the runoff during storm events is produced on partial areas which usually form on narrow bands along the stream network. A storm response model that includes runoff generation on partial areas by both Hortonian and Dunne mechanisms was recently developed by the authors. In this paper a methodology for integrating this partial area runoff generation model with the GUH-based runoff routing model is presented; this leads to a generalized GUH. The generalized GUH and the storm response model are then used to estimate physically based flood frequency distributions. In most previous work the initial moisture state of the catchment had been assumed to be constant for all the storms. In this paper we relax this assumption and allow the initial moisture conditions to vary between storms. The resulting flood frequency distributions are cast in a scaled dimensionless framework where issues such as catchment scale and similarity can be conveniently addressed. A number of experiments are performed to study the sensitivity of the flood frequency response to some of the 'similarity' parameters identified in this formulation. The results indicate that one of the most important components of the derived flood frequency model relates to the specification of processes within the runoff generation model; specifically the inclusion of both saturation excess and Horton infiltration excess runoff production mechanisms. The dominance of these mechanisms over different return periods of the flood frequency distribution can significantly affect the distributional shape and confidence limits about the distribution. Comparisons with observed flood distributions seem to indicate that such mixed runoff production mechanisms influence flood distribution shape. The

  13. Does better rainfall interpolation improve hydrological model performance? (United States)

    Bàrdossy, Andràs; Kilsby, Chris; Lewis, Elisabeth


    High spatial variability of precipitation is one of the main sources of uncertainty in rainfall/runoff modelling. Spatially distributed models require detailed space time information on precipitation as input. In the past decades a lot of effort was spent on improving precipitation interpolation using point observations. Different geostatistical methods like Ordinary Kriging, External Drift Kriging or Copula based interpolation can be used to find the best estimators for unsampled locations. The purpose of this work is to investigate to what extents more sophisticated precipitation estimation methods can improve model performance. For this purpose the Wye catchment in Wales was selected. The physically-based spatially-distributed hydrological model SHETRAN is used to describe the hydrological processes in the catchment. 31 raingauges with 1 hourly temporal resolution are available for a time period of 6 years. In order to avoid the effect of model uncertainty model parameters were not altered in this study. Instead 100 random subsets consisting of 14 stations each were selected. For each of the configurations precipitation was interpolated for each time step using nearest neighbor (NN), inverse distance (ID) and Ordinary Kriging (OK). The variogram was obtained using the temporal correlation of the time series measured at different locations. The interpolated data were used as input for the spatially distributed model. Performance was evaluated for daily mean discharges using the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient, temporal correlations, flow volumes and flow duration curves. The results show that the simplest NN and the sophisticated OK performances are practically equally good, while ID performed worse. NN was often better for high flows. The reason for this is that NN does not reduce the variance, while OK and ID yield smooth precipitation fields. The study points out the importance of precipitation variability and suggests the use of conditional spatial simulation as

  14. Spatial-temporal rainfall fields: modelling and statistical aspects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. S. Wheater


    Full Text Available The HYREX experiment has provided a data set unique in the UK, with a dense network of raingauges available for studying the rainfall at a fine local scale and a network of radar stations allowing detailed examination of the spatial and temporal structure of rainfall at larger scales. In this paper, the properties and characteristics of the rainfall process, as measured by the HYREX recording network of rainguages and radars, are studied from a statistical perspective. The results of these analyses are used to develop various models of the rainfall process, for use in hydrological applications. Some typical results of these various modelling exercises are presented. Keywords: Rainfall statistics, rainfall models, hydrological design

  15. Retrospective Analysis of Recent Flood Events With Persistent High Surface Runoff From Hydrological Modelling (United States)

    Joshi, S.; Hakeem, K. Abdul; Raju, P. V.; Rao, V. V.; Yadav, A.; Diwakar, P. G.; Dadhwal, V. K.


    Floods are one of the most common and widespread disasters in India, with an estimated 40Mha of land prone to this natural disaster (National Flood Commission, India). Significant loss of property, infrastructure, livestock, public utilities resulting in large economic losses due to floods are recurrent every year in many parts of India. Flood forecasting and early warning is widely recognized and adopted as non-structural measure to lower the damages caused by the flood events. Estimating the rainfall excess that results into excessive river flow is preliminary effort in riverine flood estimation. Flood forecasting models are in general, are event based and do not fully account for successive and persistent excessive surface runoff conditions. Successive high rainfall events result in saturated soil moisture conditions, favourable for high surface runoff conditions. The present study is to explore the usefulness of hydrological model derived surface runoff, running on continuous times-step, to relate to the occurrence of flood inundation due to persistent and successive high surface runoff conditions. Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC), a macro-scale hydrological model, was used to simulate daily runoff at systematic grid level incorporating daily meteorological data and land cover data. VIC is a physically based, semi-distributed macroscale hydrological model that represents surface and subsurface hydrologic process on spatially distributed grid cell. It explicitly represents sub-grid heterogeneity in land cover classes, taking their phenological changes into account. In this study, the model was setup for entire India using geo-spatial data available from multiple sources (NRSC, NBSS&LUP, NOAA, and IMD) and was calibrated with river discharge data from CWC at selected river basins. Using the grid-wise surface runoff estimates from the model, an algorithm was developed through a set of thresholds of successive high runoff values in order to identify grids

  16. A Partial Contributing Area Model for Linking Rainfall Simulation Data With Hydrographs of a Small Arid Watershed (United States)

    Ben-Asher, J.; Humborg, G.


    Four years of runoff measurement (29 events) in Kangussano, Mali, were analyzed on the basis of the partial area contribution concept. The study region is semiarid and the use of runoff water to satisfy crop of high importance. A first-order basin which included two flow channels draining an area of 1.14 106 ha (1.14 km2) was used for this purpose. The objective of this study was to develop and test a conceptual model to predict runoff on natural catchments of about this size. The model assumes that a basin is composed of a large number of pixels (satellite picture elements). Each pixel covers an area of 900 m2. The hydraulic properties of a representative pixel are determined by runoff simulation experiments. The model calculates the number of runoff generating pixels at a given time and rain depth. The areal runoff is a product of these two factors. Analysis of satellite images from LANDSAT and SPOT indicated similarities of soil cover complexes between the study area and an experimental area in Upper Volta. Results of runoff simulation from this area were adapted for the study area and used for the calculations. A good agreement between predicted and measured contributing area was obtained when the number of runoff generating pixels was 80 pixels/ram effective rain. Predicted and measured hydrographs were also in good agreement. It was therefore concluded that the model can satisfactorily predict actual hydrographs from data generated by rainfall-runoff simulators. Dividing the watershed to surface elements of pixel's size makes the model capable of linking remote sensing information with simulation data in order to predict areal runoff.

  17. Characteristics of the event mean concentration (EMCs) from rainfall runoff on mixed agricultural land use in the shoreline zone of the Yamuna River in Delhi, India (United States)

    Sharma, Deepshikha; Gupta, Ruchi; Singh, Ram Karan; Kansal, Arun


    This paper is focused on the monitoring of the diffuse pollution characteristics from the agricultural land confining the River Yamuna in Delhi (capital of India). Agricultural fields surrounding the Yamuna river are direct nonpoint source of pollution impacting the river quality. The study includes watershed delineation for the River Yamuna using SWAT (2005) and land use classification for the city using GIS and remote sensing. Thereafter, the rainfall-runoff pollutant concentrations from the mixed agricultural land use were assessed for the 2006 and 2007 monsoon period (July-September). Runoff was measured using SCS method and grab samples of rainfall runoff were collected at three stations namely Old Delhi Railway Bridge (ODRB), Nizamuddin and Okhla bridge in Delhi. The samples were analysed for physico-chemical and biological parameters. Rainfall runoff and event mean concentrations (EMCs) for different water quality parameters were characterized and the effect of land use was analyzed. The average EMCs for BOD, COD, ammonia, nitrate, TKN, hardness, TDS, TSS, chlorides, sulfates, phosphate, fluorides and TC were 21.82 mg/L, 73.48 mg/L, 72.68 μg/L, 229.87 μg/L, 15.32 μg/L, 11.36 mg/L, 117.44 mg/L, 77.60 mg/L, 117.64 mg/L, 135.82 mg/L, 0.08 mg/L, 0.85 mg/L and 2,827.47 MPN/100 mL, respectively. The EMCs of TSS, nitrogen and its compounds, phosphate and BOD were high.

  18. Supporting data for “A glacier runoff extension to the precipitation runoff modeling system” (United States)

    Van Beusekom, Ashley; Viger, Roland


    This product is an archive of the modeling artifacts used to produce a journal paper (Van Beusekom and Viger, 2016). The abstract for that paper follows. A module to simulate glacier runoff, PRMSglacier, was added to PRMS (Precipitation Runoff Modeling System), a distributed-parameter, physical-process hydrological simulation code. The extension does not require extensive on-glacier measurements or computational expense but still relies on physical principles over empirical relations as much as is feasible while maintaining model usability. PRMSglacier is validated on two basins in Alaska, Wolverine, and Gulkana Glacier basin, which have been studied since 1966 and have a substantial amount of data with which to test model performance over a long period of time covering a wide range of climatic and hydrologic conditions. When error in field measurements is considered, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies of streamflow are 0.87 and 0.86, the absolute bias fractions of the winter mass balance simulations are 0.10 and 0.08, and the absolute bias fractions of the summer mass balances are 0.01 and 0.03, all computed over 42 years for the Wolverine and Gulkana Glacier basins, respectively. Without taking into account measurement error, the values are still within the range achieved by the more computationally expensive codes tested over shorter time periods.

  19. Rainfall simulations on steep calanchi landscapes: Generating input parameters for physically based erosion modelling (United States)

    Kaiser, Andreas; Buchholz, Arno; Neugirg, Fabian; Schindewolf, Marcus


    Calanchi landscapes in central Italy have been subject to geoscientific research since many years, not exclusively but especially for questions regarding soil erosion and land degradation. Seasonal dynamics play an important role for morphological processes within the Calanchi. As in most Mediterranean landscapes also in the research site at Val d'Orcia long and dry summers are ended by heavy rainfall events in autumn. The latter contribute to most of the annual sediment output of the incised hollows and can cause damage to agricultural land and infrastructures. While research for understanding Calanco development is of high importance, the complex morphology and thus limited accessibility impedes in situ works. To still improve the understanding of morphodynamics without unnecessarily impinging natural conditions a remote sensing and erosion modelling approach was carried out in the presented work. UAV and LiDAR based very high resolution digital surface models were produced and served as an input parameter for the raster and physically based soil erosion model EROSION3D. Additionally, data on infiltration, runoff generation and sediment detachment were generated with artificial rainfall simulations - the most invasive but unavoidable method. To increase the 1 m plot length virtually to around 20 m the sediment loaded runoff water was again introduced to the plot by a reflux system. Rather elaborate logistics were required to set up the simulator on strongly inclined slopes, to establish sufficient water supply and to secure the simulator on the slope but experiments produced plausible results and valuable input data for modelling. The model results are then compared to the repeated UAV and LiDAR campaigns and the resulting digital elevation models of difference. By simulating different rainfall and moisture scenarios and implementing in situ measured weather data runoff induced processes can be distinguished from gravitational slides and rockfall.

  20. Assessment of neural networks performance in modeling rainfall ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper presents the evaluation of performance of Neural Network (NN) model in predicting the behavioral pattern of rainfall depths of some locations in the North Central zones of Nigeria. The input to the model is the consecutive rainfall depths data obtained from the Nigerian Meteorological (NiMET) Agency. The neural ...

  1. Prediction of annual rainfall pattern using Hidden Markov Model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The model is developed to provide necessary information for the farmers, agronomists, water resource management scientists and policy makers to enable them plan for the uncertainty of annual rainfall. The model classified annual rainfall amount into three states, each with eight possible observations. The parameters of ...

  2. modelling relationship between rainfall variability and yields in the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    yield models should be used for planning and forecasting the yield of millet and sorghum in the study area. Key words: modelling, rainfall, yields, millet, sorghum. INTRODUCTION. Meteorological variables, such as rainfall parameters, temperature, sunshine hours, relative humidity, and wind velocity and soil moisture are.

  3. Application of the rainfall infiltration breakthrough (RIB) model for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)


    May 23, 2012 ... A relationship between rainfall events and water level fluctuations (WLF) on a monthly basis was proposed in the rainfall infiltration breakthrough (RIB) model for the purpose of groundwater recharge estimation. In this paper, the physical meaning of parameters in the CRD and previous. RIB models is ...

  4. A Statistical Model for Seasonal Rainfall Forecasting over the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A deterministic model was developed to investigate how global rainfall predictors relate to the two main rainy months in the highlands of Eritrea. The main aim of looking at these relationships is to develop a simple statistical model for forecasting rainfall amount. In a preliminary step, in order to identify the most influential ...

  5. Analysis of rainfall intensity - duration - frequency (IDF) models for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) models for duration of 0.50 to 24 h for different design periods were analysed using least squares regression. The first group of models related rainfall intensities to durations, and produced four equations with regression coefficient (R2) ranging from 0.800 to 0.950. The second set ...

  6. Effect of rainfall and tillage direction on the evolution of surface crusts, soil hydraulic properties and runoff generation for a sandy loam soil (United States)

    Ndiaye, Babacar; Esteves, Michel; Vandervaere, Jean-Pierre; Lapetite, Jean-Marc; Vauclin, Michel


    The study was aimed at evaluating the effect of rainfall and tillage-induced soil surface characteristics on infiltration and runoff on a 2.8 ha catchment located in the central region of Senegal. This was done by simulating 30 min rain storms applied at a constant rate of about 70 mm h -1, on 10 runoff micro-plots of 1 m 2, five being freshly harrowed perpendicularly to the slope and five along the slope (1%) of the catchment. Runoff was automatically recorded at the outlet of each plot. Hydraulic properties such as capillary sorptivity and hydraulic conductivity of the sandy loam soil close to saturation were determined by running 48 infiltration tests with a tension disc infiltrometer. That allowed the calculation of a mean characteristic pore size hydraulically active and a time to ponding. Superficial water storage capacity was estimated using data collected with an electronic relief meter. Because the soil was subject to surface crusting, crust-types as well as their spatial distribution within micro-plots and their evolution with time were identified and monitored by taking photographs at different times after tillage. The results showed that the surface crust-types as well as their tillage dependent dynamics greatly explain the decrease of hydraulic conductivity and sorptivity as the cumulative rainfall since tillage increases. The exponential decaying rates were found to be significantly greater for the soil harrowed along the slope (where the runoff crust-type covers more than 60% of the surface after 140 mm of rain) than across to the slope (where crusts are mainly of structural (60%) and erosion (40%) types). That makes ponding time smaller and runoff more important. Also it was shown that soil hydraulic properties after about 160 mm of rain were close to those of untilled plot not submitted to any rain. That indicates that the effects of tillage are short lived.

  7. Recent (2001-09) hydrologic history and regionalization studies in Texas-Statistical characterization of storms, floods, and rainfall-runoff relations (United States)

    Asquith, William H.


    As part of numerous cooperative studies investigating rainfall and streamflow during 1991-2009 with the Texas Department of Transportation and Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) published about 20 reports describing either historical streamflow conditions (hydrologic history) in Texas or the results of studies involving regional rainfall and streamflow statistics (regionalization studies). Both types of studies are widely used in engineering and scientific applications. Long-term rainfall and streamflow records are essential for deriving reliable rainfall and streamflow statistics. Whereas the need for such records is regionwide, rainfall and streamflow records are site-specific. The USGS has pioneered ways to mathematically transfer site-specific rainfall and streamflow information to provide regional statistical models. In addition to publishing reports describing historical hydrologic data at many monitored locations throughout Texas, the USGS has published reports describing regional models for estimating rainfall and streamflow statistics at unmonitored locations. The primary objectives of these regionalization studies were to provide historical perspectives of streamflow conditions in Texas or estimates of specific statistics of rainfall or streamflow. Statistics such as 6-hour, 1-percent annual exceedance rainfall (a large storm) or 2-percent annual exceedance streamflow (a substantial flood) can be estimated for locations lacking sufficient direct observations of rainfall and streamflow data. This fact sheet provides a brief synopsis of 12 recent (2001-09) USGS hydrologic history and regionalization studies in Texas organized thematically and chronologically.

  8. Partial Least Squares Regression for Determining the Control Factors for Runoff and Suspended Sediment Yield during Rainfall Events


    Fang, Nufang; Shi, Zhihua; Chen, Fangxin; Wang, Yixia


    Multivariate statistics are commonly used to identify the factors that control the dynamics of runoff or sediment yields during hydrological processes. However, one issue with the use of conventional statistical methods to address relationships between variables and runoff or sediment yield is multicollinearity. The main objectives of this study were to apply a method for effectively identifying runoff and sediment control factors during hydrological processes and apply that method to a case ...

  9. A Stochastic Model of Surface Runoff and Pollutant Connectivity Between Hillslopes and Streams (United States)

    Sheridan, G. J.; Jones, O. D.; Lane, P. N.; Nyman, P.


    The overland flow pathway between hillslopes and streams remains a critical, yet poorly represented transport pathway linking hillslope constituent generation and catchment exports via the stream network. The poor representation of this runoff and pollutant pathway largely results from the mismatch in scales between the pervasive point-scale representations of infiltration (eg Green and Ampt) within hydrologic and erosion models, and the reality of often extreme within-catchment spatial variability in the critical hydrologic properties of the system. Attempted solutions to date fall into three categories; 1) simple empirical sediment delivery ratios, 2) numerical simulations of spatially variable fields of soil and rainfall parameters, and 3) gross simplifications of the variability and arrangement of these parameters so as to admit analytical solutions to the runoff delivery problem. A key aspect of this problem is that in real catchments, transient runoff may be generated, infiltrating further downslope at a point where soil hydraulic conductivity is greater. This paper proposes an alternative way (entitled Stochastic Runoff Connectivity, SRC) to model and quantify the delivery of overland flow to the stream boundary under these spatially variable hillslope conditions. The approach utilizes queuing system theory and a stochastic storage process model whereby the 'connected area', and the volume of water reaching the stream via this pathway, can be described using probability density functions determined (analytically) from the asymptotic states of the stochastic process. The connected area in this instance is defined as an infiltration-excess equivalent to the well know variable source area concept, and provides an important input to raindrop-energy based hillslope erosion models. The validity of the SRC model is tested against field data and numerical simulations.

  10. An application of artificial intelligence for rainfall–runoff modeling

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This study proposes an application of two techniques of artificial intelligence (AI) for rainfall–runoff modeling: the artificial neural networks (ANN) and the ... Statistical parameters such as average, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, skewness, minimum and maximum values, as well as criteria such as mean square ...

  11. Modelling runoff depth and connectivity in commercial vineyards (DO Somontano, Huesca, NE Spain) (United States)

    López-Vicente, Manuel, , Dr.; Navas, Ana, , Dr.


    Surface runoff, soil redistribution and sediment delivery are non-linear processes that depend on many parameters, and thus, numerical simulation of overland flow, sediments and other solutes connectivity is a complex and non-solved task. Additionally, man-made landscape linear elements (LLEs: unpaved and paved trails, roads, land levelling, irrigation ditches, stone walls, dams, etc.) modify the natural patterns of connectivity. Mediterranean soils have been cultivated for hundreds and thousands of years and landscapes appear intensively modified. Vineyards are one of the most ancient crops in Mediterranean countries and recently in other countries around the World. In this study, we run the IC model of connectivity (Borselli et al., 2008, doi:10.1016/j.catena.2008.07.006) and the water balance DR2-2013© SAGA v1.1 model (López-Vicente et al., 2014, doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.08.025; software freely downloaded at in a vineyard (26.4 ha) composed by four fields (6.2 ha) and their upslope drainage area. These commercial fields belong to a winery included in the Somontano certificate of origin. All input maps are generated at 5 x 5 m of cell size and the digital elevation model is based on LIDAR technology. The map of connectivity showed the typical spatial pattern of overland flow though values of connectivity varied along the whole map. The average value was -2.65 (sd = -0.62) and within the four vineyards was -2.46 (sd = -0.65). High connectivity appeared in bare soil areas, in the unpaved trail and within some sections of the main pathways. The lowest connectivity appeared in the forest and in small areas within the vineyards. The effective rainfall (ER) that reaches the soils, was 88% on average (384 mm) from the total rainfall depth (436 mm yr-1) and the average initial runoff, before overland flow processes, was 382 mm yr-1 (sd = 31 mm). The ER within the vineyards was 81%. The effective runoff (CQeff) ranged from 0

  12. High-quality observation of surface imperviousness for urban runoff modelling using UAV imagery (United States)

    Tokarczyk, P.; Leitao, J. P.; Rieckermann, J.; Schindler, K.; Blumensaat, F.


    Modelling rainfall-runoff in urban areas is increasingly applied to support flood risk assessment, particularly against the background of a changing climate and an increasing urbanization. These models typically rely on high-quality data for rainfall and surface characteristics of the catchment area as model input. While recent research in urban drainage has been focusing on providing spatially detailed rainfall data, the technological advances in remote sensing that ease the acquisition of detailed land-use information are less prominently discussed within the community. The relevance of such methods increases as in many parts of the globe, accurate land-use information is generally lacking, because detailed image data are often unavailable. Modern unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) allow one to acquire high-resolution images on a local level at comparably lower cost, performing on-demand repetitive measurements and obtaining a degree of detail tailored for the purpose of the study. In this study, we investigate for the first time the possibility of deriving high-resolution imperviousness maps for urban areas from UAV imagery and of using this information as input for urban drainage models. To do so, an automatic processing pipeline with a modern classification method is proposed and evaluated in a state-of-the-art urban drainage modelling exercise. In a real-life case study (Lucerne, Switzerland), we compare imperviousness maps generated using a fixed-wing consumer micro-UAV and standard large-format aerial images acquired by the Swiss national mapping agency (swisstopo). After assessing their overall accuracy, we perform an end-to-end comparison, in which they are used as an input for an urban drainage model. Then, we evaluate the influence which different image data sources and their processing methods have on hydrological and hydraulic model performance. We analyse the surface runoff of the 307 individual subcatchments regarding relevant attributes, such as peak

  13. Simulation of Rainfall-Runoff Response in Ecological Swale with On-Line Subsurface Detention Using Infoworks SD. (United States)

    Ghadim, Hamed Benisi; Hin, Lai Sai


      The Bio-Ecological Drainage System (BIOECODS) is a sustainable drainage (SUDS) to demonstrate the 'control at source' approaches for urban stormwater management in Malaysia. It is an environmentally friendly drainage system that was designed to increase infiltration, reduce peak flow at outlet, improve water quality, through different BMPs, such as grass swale, retention pond, etc. A special feature of BIOECODS is ecological swale with on-line subsurface detention. This study attempted to create a model of ecological swale with on-line subsurface conveyance system with InfoWorks SD. The new technique has been used Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) model to describe overland flow routing and Soil Conservation Service Method (SCS) used to model infiltration or subsurface flow. The modeling technique has been proven successful, as the predicted and observed closely match each other, with a mean error of 4.58 to 7.32%. The calibrated model then used to determine the ratio of the flow exchange between the surface and subsurface drainage system. Results from the model showed that the runoff ratio exchange between the surface and subsurface is 60 to 90%.

  14. Scale effects of Hortonian overland flow and rainfall-runoff dynamics in a West African catena landscape

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Giesen, van de N.C.; Stomph, T.J.; Ridder, de N.


    Hortonian runoff was measured from plots with lengths of 1?25 and 12 m, and at watershed level for rainstorms during the 1996 rainy season in cental Côte d'Ivoire, Africa. A clear reduction in runoff coefficients was found with increasing slope lengths, giving order of magnitude differences between

  15. Modelling the impact of increasing soil sealing on runoff coefficients at regional scale: a hydropedological approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ungaro Fabrizio


    Full Text Available Soil sealing is the permanent covering of the land surface by buildings, infrastructures or any impermeable artificial material. Beside the loss of fertile soils with a direct impact on food security, soil sealing modifies the hydrological cycle. This can cause an increased flooding risk, due to urban development in potential risk areas and to the increased volumes of runoff. This work estimates the increase of runoff due to sealing following urbanization and land take in the plain of Emilia Romagna (Italy, using the Green and Ampt infiltration model for two rainfall return periods (20 and 200 years in two different years, 1976 and 2008. To this goal a hydropedological approach was adopted in order to characterize soil hydraulic properties via locally calibrated pedotransfer functions (PTF. PTF inputs were estimated via sequential Gaussian simulations coupled with a simple kriging with varying local means, taking into account soil type and dominant land use. Results show that in the study area an average increment of 8.4% in sealed areas due to urbanization and sprawl induces an average increment in surface runoff equal to 3.5 and 2.7% respectively for 20 and 200-years return periods, with a maximum > 20% for highly sealed coast areas.

  16. Model simulations of rainfall over southern Africa and its eastern ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)


    Jan 1, 2016 ... Rainfall simulations over southern and tropical Africa in the form of low-resolution Atmospheric Model Intercomparison. Project (AMIP) simulations ..... to solve the hydrostatic primitive equations (McGregor, 1996). It contains a ..... SJ and ROPELEWSKI CF (2007) Validation of satellite rainfall products over ...

  17. Development of a Compound Distribution Markov Chain Model for Stochastic Generation of Rainfall with Long Term Persistence (United States)

    Kamal Chowdhury, AFM; Lockart, Natalie; Willgoose, Garry; Kuczera, George


    One of the overriding issues in the rainfall simulation is the underestimation of observed rainfall variability in longer timescales (e.g. monthly, annual and multi-year), which usually results into under-estimation of reservoir reliability in urban water planning. This study has developed a Compound Distribution Markov Chain (CDMC) model for stochastic generation of daily rainfall. We used two parameters of Markov Chain process (transition probabilities of wet-to-wet and dry-to-dry days) for simulating rainfall occurrence and two parameters of gamma distribution (calculated from mean and standard deviation of wet-day rainfall) for simulating wet-day rainfall amounts. While two models with deterministic parameters underestimated long term variability, our investigation found that the long term variability of rainfall in the model is predominantly governed by the long term variability of gamma parameters, rather than the variability of Markov Chain parameters. Therefore, in the third approach, we developed the CDMC model with deterministic parameters of Markov Chain process, but stochastic parameters of gamma distribution by sampling the mean and standard deviation of wet-day rainfall from their log-normal and bivariate-normal distribution. We have found that the CDMC is able to replicate both short term and long term rainfall variability, when we calibrated the model at two sites in east coast of Australia using three types of daily rainfall data - (1) dynamically downscaled, 10 km resolution gridded data produced by NSW/ACT Regional Climate Modelling project, (2) 5 km resolution gridded data by Australian Water Availability Project and (3) point scale raingauge stations data by Bureau of Meteorology, Australia. We also examined the spatial variability of parameters and their link with local orography at our field site. The suitability of the model in runoff generation and urban reservoir-water simulation will be discussed.

  18. Congo Basin rainfall climatology: can we believe the climate models? (United States)

    Washington, Richard; James, Rachel; Pearce, Helen; Pokam, Wilfried M; Moufouma-Okia, Wilfran


    The Congo Basin is one of three key convective regions on the planet which, during the transition seasons, dominates global tropical rainfall. There is little agreement as to the distribution and quantity of rainfall across the basin with datasets differing by an order of magnitude in some seasons. The location of maximum rainfall is in the far eastern sector of the basin in some datasets but the far western edge of the basin in others during March to May. There is no consistent pattern to this rainfall distribution in satellite or model datasets. Resolving these differences is difficult without ground-based data. Moisture flux nevertheless emerges as a useful variable with which to study these differences. Climate models with weak (strong) or even divergent moisture flux over the basin are dry (wet). The paper suggests an approach, via a targeted field campaign, for generating useful climate information with which to confront rainfall products and climate models.

  19. Evaluation of a conceptual rainfall forecasting model from observed and simulated rain events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Dolciné


    Full Text Available Very short-term rainfall forecasting models designed for runoff analysis of catchments, particularly those subject to flash-floods, typically include one or more variables deduced from weather radars. Useful variables for defining the state and evolution of a rain system include rainfall rate, vertically integrated rainwater content and advection velocity. The forecast model proposed in this work complements recent dynamical formulations by focusing on a formulation incorporating these variables using volumetric radar data to define the model state variables, determining the rainfall source term directly from multi-scan radar data, explicitly accounting for orographic enhancement, and explicitly incorporating the dynamical model components in an advection-diffusion scheme. An evaluation of this model is presented for four rain events collected in the South of France and in the North-East of Italy. Model forecasts are compared with two simple methods: persistence and extrapolation. An additional analysis is performed using an existing mono-dimensional microphysical meteorological model to produce simulated rain events and provide initialization data. Forecasted rainfall produced by the proposed model and the extrapolation method are compared to the simulated events. The results show that the forecast model performance is influenced by rainfall temporal variability and performance is better for less variable rain events. The comparison with the extrapolation method shows that the proposed model performs better than extrapolation in the initial period of the forecast lead-time. It is shown that the performance of the proposed model over the extrapolation method depends essentially on the additional vertical information available from voluminal radar.

  20. Prediction of Annual Rainfall Pattern Using Hidden Markov Model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)


    1Department of Mathematics, 2Department of Crop Production,. Federal University of Technology Minna, ... Keywords: Markov model, Hidden Markov model, Transition probability, Observation probability, Crop. Production, Annual Rainfall ... introduced unobserved climate states with them. The transitions between these ...

  1. Simulation of soil loss processes based on rainfall runoff and the time factor of governance in the Jialing River Watershed, China. (United States)

    Wu, Lei; Long, Tian-Yu; Liu, Xia; Mmereki, Daniel


    Jialing River is the largest tributary in the catchment area of Three Gorges Reservoir, and it is also one of the important areas of sediment yield in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. In recent years, significant changes of water and sediment characteristics have taken place. The "Long Control" Project implemented since 1989 had greatly changed the surface appearance of the Jialing River Watershed (JRW), and it had made the environments of the watershed sediment yield and sediment transport change significantly. In this research, the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation was selected and used to predict the annual average amount of soil erosion for the special water and sediment environments in the JRW after the implementation of the "Long Control" Project, and then the rainfall-runoff modulus and the time factor of governance were both considered as dynamic factors, the dynamic sediment transport model was built for soil erosion monitoring and forecasting based on the average sediment yield model. According to the dynamic model, the spatial and temporal distribution of soil erosion amount and sediment transport amount of the JRW from 1990 to 2007 was simulated using geographic information system (GIS) technology and space-grid algorithm. Simulation results showed that the average relative error of sediment transport was less than 10% except for the extreme hydrological year. The relationship between water and sediment from 1990 to 2007 showed that sediment interception effects of the soil and water conservation projects were obvious: the annual average sediment discharge reduced from 145.3 to 35 million tons, the decrement of sediment amount was about 111 million tons, and decreasing amplitude was 76%; the sediment concentration was also decreased from 2.01 to 0.578 kg/m(3). These data are of great significance for the prediction and estimation of the future changing trends of sediment storage in the Three Gorges Reservoir and the particulate non

  2. Improving rainfall representation for large-scale hydrological modelling of tropical mountain basins (United States)

    Zulkafli, Zed; Buytaert, Wouter; Onof, Christian; Lavado, Waldo; Guyot, Jean-Loup


    Errors in the forcing data are sometimes overlooked in hydrological studies even when they could be the most important source of uncertainty. The latter particularly holds true in tropical countries with short historical records of rainfall monitoring and remote areas with sparse rain gauge network. In such instances, alternative data such as the remotely sensed precipitation from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite have been used. These provide a good spatial representation of rainfall processes but have been established in the literature to contain volumetric biases that may impair the results of hydrological modelling or worse, are compensated during model calibration. In this study, we analysed precipitation time series from the TMPA (TRMM Multiple Precipitation Algorithm, version 6) against measurements from over 300 gauges in the Andes and Amazon regions of Peru and Ecuador. We found moderately good monthly correlation between the pixel and gauge pairs but a severe underestimation of rainfall amounts and wet days. The discrepancy between the time series pairs is particularly visible over the east side of the Andes and may be attributed to localized and orographic-driven high intensity rainfall, which the satellite product may have limited skills at capturing due to technical and scale issues. This consequently results in a low bias in the simulated streamflow volumes further downstream. In comparison, with the recently released TMPA, version 7, the biases reduce. This work further explores several approaches to merge the two sources of rainfall measurements, each of a different spatial and temporal support, with the objective of improving the representation of rainfall in hydrological simulations. The methods used are (1) mean bias correction (2) data assimilation using Kalman filter Bayesian updating. The results are evaluated by means of (1) a comparison of runoff ratios (the ratio of the total runoff and the total precipitation over an

  3. Possibilistic uncertainty analysis of a conceptual model of snowmelt runoff


    A. P. Jacquin


    This study presents the analysis of predictive uncertainty of a conceptual type snowmelt runoff model. The method applied uses possibilistic rather than probabilistic calculus for the evaluation of predictive uncertainty. Possibility theory is an information theory meant to model uncertainties caused by imprecise or incomplete knowledge about a real system rather than by randomness. A snow dominated catchment in the Chilean Andes is used as case study. Predictive uncertainty arising from para...

  4. Seasonal predictability of Kiremt rainfall in coupled general circulation models (United States)

    Gleixner, Stephanie; Keenlyside, Noel S.; Demissie, Teferi D.; Counillon, François; Wang, Yiguo; Viste, Ellen


    The Ethiopian economy and population is strongly dependent on rainfall. Operational seasonal predictions for the main rainy season (Kiremt, June–September) are based on statistical approaches with Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) as the main predictor. Here we analyse dynamical predictions from 11 coupled general circulation models for the Kiremt seasons from 1985–2005 with the forecasts starting from the beginning of May. We find skillful predictions from three of the 11 models, but no model beats a simple linear prediction model based on the predicted Niño3.4 indices. The skill of the individual models for dynamically predicting Kiremt rainfall depends on the strength of the teleconnection between Kiremt rainfall and concurrent Pacific SST in the models. Models that do not simulate this teleconnection fail to capture the observed relationship between Kiremt rainfall and the large-scale Walker circulation.

  5. A Physically—Based Geometry Model for Transport Distance Estimation of Rainfall-Eroded Soil Sediment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qian-Gui Zhang


    Full Text Available Estimations of rainfall-induced soil erosion are mostly derived from the weight of sediment measured in natural runoff. The transport distance of eroded soil is important for evaluating landscape evolution but is difficult to estimate, mainly because it cannot be linked directly to the eroded sediment weight. The volume of eroded soil is easier to calculate visually using popular imaging tools, which can aid in estimating the transport distance of eroded soil through geometry relationships. In this study, we present a straightforward geometry model to predict the maximum sediment transport distance incurred by rainfall events of various intensity and duration. In order to verify our geometry prediction model, a series of experiments are reported in the form of a sediment volume. The results show that cumulative rainfall has a linear relationship with the total volume of eroded soil. The geometry model can accurately estimate the maximum transport distance of eroded soil by cumulative rainfall, with a low root-mean-square error (4.7–4.8 and a strong linear correlation (0.74–0.86.

  6. Process-oriented Simulation of Runoff Generation on Arable Fields Using a Physically Based Hydrological Model (United States)

    Winter, F.; Disse, M.


    In Germany, aside from technical flood protection and forecasting, modern flood protection strategies include distributed flood control measures. On arable fields these measures comprise of increasing infiltration ability due to different tillage practices such as conservational tillage or no-tillage. Tillage practices have a significant effect on the runoff generation process. Bare soils are prone to forming soil crusts during extreme rainfall events especially on Loessial soils that are abundant in Central European landscapes, and soil crusts promote surface runoff and erosion. Due to the impact of raindrops, the topsoil aggregates are broken and form a layer of a few millimeters to centimeters with very low hydraulic conductivity. One way to describe this process is by using a modified Horton infiltration equation. WaSiM-ETH is a physically based hydrological modeling system developed by SCHULLA (1997) to analyze the spatial and temporal distributed flow processes in complex catchments. In order to investigate the effect of soil crusts on runoff generation on arable fields, WaSiM-ETH was extended by adding a silting module which is able to simulate the process of soil crust formation. It has been shown that sprinkler experiments could be simulated more efficiently with the model extension than with the simulation of runoff generation according to the Mualem-van-Genuchten parameterization. This effect is extended to a lower mesoscale agricultural catchment for a number of different high intensity storm events. Finally, scenario setups show the potential of surface water retention for different tillage practices. Literature: SCHULLA, J. (1997): Hydrologische Modellierung von Flussgebieten zur Abschätzung der Folgen von Klimaänderungen, Dissertation, ETH Zürich, 161. S. (in German)

  7. Runoff of small rocky headwater catchments: Field observations and hydrological modeling (United States)

    Gregoretti, C.; Degetto, M.; Bernard, M.; Crucil, G.; Pimazzoni, A.; De Vido, G.; Berti, M.; Simoni, A.; Lanzoni, S.


    In dolomitic headwater catchments, intense rainstorms of short duration produce runoff discharges that often trigger debris flows on the scree slopes at the base of rock cliffs. In order to measure these discharges, we placed a measuring facility at the outlet (elevation 1770 m a.s.l.) of a small, rocky headwater catchment (area ˜0.032 km2, average slope ˜320%) located in the Venetian Dolomites (North Eastern Italian Alps). The facility consists of an approximately rectangular basin, ending with a sharp-crested weir. Six runoff events were recorded in the period 2011-2014, providing a unique opportunity for characterizing the hydrological response of the catchment. The measured hydrographs display impulsive shapes, with an abrupt raise up to the peak, followed by a rapidly decreasing tail, until a nearly constant plateau is eventually reached. This behavior can be simulated by means of a distributed hydrological model if the excess rainfall is determined accurately. We show that using the Soil Conservation Service Curve-Number (SCS-CN) method and assuming a constant routing velocity invariably results in an underestimated peak flow and a delayed peak time. A satisfactory prediction of the impulsive hydrograph shape, including peak value and timing, is obtained only by combining the SCS-CN procedure with a simplified version of the Horton equation, and simulating runoff routing along the channel network through a matched diffusivity kinematic wave model. The robustness of the proposed methodology is tested through a comparison between simulated and observed timings of runoff or debris flow occurrence in two neighboring alpine basins.

  8. Model based monitoring of stormwater runoff quality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Birch, Heidi; Vezzaro, Luca; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen


    Monitoring of micropollutants (MP) in stormwater is essential to evaluate the impacts of stormwater on the receiving aquatic environment. The aim of this study was to investigate how different strategies for monitoring of stormwater quality (combination of model with field sampling) affect the in......) for calibration of the model resulted in the same predicted level but narrower model prediction bounds than calibrations based on volume-proportional samples, allowing a better exploitation of the resources allocated for stormwater quality management.......Monitoring of micropollutants (MP) in stormwater is essential to evaluate the impacts of stormwater on the receiving aquatic environment. The aim of this study was to investigate how different strategies for monitoring of stormwater quality (combination of model with field sampling) affect...... the information obtained about MPs discharged from the monitored system. A dynamic stormwater quality model was calibrated using MP data collected by volume-proportional and passive sampling in a storm drainage system in the outskirts of Copenhagen (Denmark) and a 10-year rain series was used to find annual...

  9. A comparative study of artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy in continuous modeling of the daily and hourly behaviour of runoff (United States)

    Aqil, Muhammad; Kita, Ichiro; Yano, Akira; Nishiyama, Soichi


    SummaryModeling of rainfall-runoff dynamics is one of the most studied topics in hydrology due to its essential application to water resources management. Recently, artificial intelligence has gained much popularity for calibrating the nonlinear relationships inherent in the rainfall-runoff process. In this study, the advantages of artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy system in continuous modeling of the daily and hourly behaviour of runoff were examined. Three different adaptive techniques were constructed and examined namely, Levenberg-Marquardt feed forward neural network, Bayesian regularization feed forward neural network, and neuro-fuzzy. In addition, the effects of data transformation on model performance were also investigated. This was done by examining the performance of the three network architectures and training algorithms using both raw and transformed data. Through inspection of the results it was found that although the model built on transformed data outperforms the model built on raw data, no significant differences were found between the forecast accuracies of the three examined models. A detailed comparison of the overall performance indicated that the neuro-fuzzy model performed better than both the Levenberg-Marquardt-FFNN and the Bayesian regularization-FFNN. In order to enable users to process the data easily, a graphic user interface (GUI) was developed. This program allows users to process the rainfall-runoff data, to train/test the model using various input options and to visualize results.

  10. Runoff modeling of the Mara River using Satellite Observed Soil ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    this study demonstrates the potential role operational satellite based soil moisture and rainfall products can play in quantifying ... INTRODUCTION. Recent studies on the use of satellite observed soil moisture for hydrological modeling have shown that ..... M. E. McClain of UNESCO Institute for Water Education for facilitating ...

  11. Stochastic modeling of hourly rainfall times series in Campania (Italy) (United States)

    Giorgio, M.; Greco, R.


    Occurrence of flowslides and floods in small catchments is uneasy to predict, since it is affected by a number of variables, such as mechanical and hydraulic soil properties, slope morphology, vegetation coverage, rainfall spatial and temporal variability. Consequently, landslide risk assessment procedures and early warning systems still rely on simple empirical models based on correlation between recorded rainfall data and observed landslides and/or river discharges. Effectiveness of such systems could be improved by reliable quantitative rainfall prediction, which can allow gaining larger lead-times. Analysis of on-site recorded rainfall height time series represents the most effective approach for a reliable prediction of local temporal evolution of rainfall. Hydrological time series analysis is a widely studied field in hydrology, often carried out by means of autoregressive models, such as AR, ARMA, ARX, ARMAX (e.g. Salas [1992]). Such models gave the best results when applied to the analysis of autocorrelated hydrological time series, like river flow or level time series. Conversely, they are not able to model the behaviour of intermittent time series, like point rainfall height series usually are, especially when recorded with short sampling time intervals. More useful for this issue are the so-called DRIP (Disaggregated Rectangular Intensity Pulse) and NSRP (Neymann-Scott Rectangular Pulse) model [Heneker et al., 2001; Cowpertwait et al., 2002], usually adopted to generate synthetic point rainfall series. In this paper, the DRIP model approach is adopted, in which the sequence of rain storms and dry intervals constituting the structure of rainfall time series is modeled as an alternating renewal process. Final aim of the study is to provide a useful tool to implement an early warning system for hydrogeological risk management. Model calibration has been carried out with hourly rainfall hieght data provided by the rain gauges of Campania Region civil

  12. Modelling the Potential of Integrated Vegetation Bands (IVB to Retain Stormwater Runoff on Steep Hillslopes of Southeast Queensland, Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justin G. Ryan


    Full Text Available Rainfall intensity is predicted to increase under a changing climate, leading to increased risks of hillslope erosion, downstream sedimentation and flooding. For many catchments used for grazing and agricultural land uses, it will become increasingly important to maintain ecohydrological functioning despite climatic extremes. One means to achieve this is through strategic reforestation using locally endemic species, in spatial configurations that effectively intercept, retain or and redistribute overland flows. This paper adopts a modelling approach for investigating the potential of one such design termed “integrated vegetation bands” (IVB, to increase the retention of runoff across steep hillslopes, particularly in the sub-tropics where rainstorms are becoming increasingly intense. A spatially distributed simulation model (MIKE-SHE was applied to a steep, grazed catchment (Maronghi Creek catchment, Southeast Queensland, Australia to compare stormwater runoff characteristics between: (1 the existing pasture land cover; and (2 a series of hypothetical IVB added across this pasture land. The IVB were approximately 20 m wide, and configured at 5% gradient towards ridgelines. Results for estimates of overland flow depth and infiltration (spatial, and accumulative water balance (temporal, confirm that the area of hillslope retaining > 10 mm/day more runoff increased by 22% under IVB compared to the pasture land use. Excluding the IVB themselves, the area of hillslope where runoff retention increased was 11%. During the most intense rainfall, IVB held up to 25% greater water depth and had 10% greater infiltration at the hillslope scale. At the sub-catchment scale, discharge decreased by 7% and infiltration increased by 23%. The findings for sub-tropical landscapes presented here are consistent with studies conducted in temperate regions. Based on the results of this preliminary modelling work, the IVB concept has been established as a paired

  13. Hydrological Modeling of Rainfall-Watershed-Bioretention System with EPA SWMM (United States)

    gülbaz, sezar; melek kazezyılmaz-alhan, cevza


    Water resources should be protected for the sustainability of water supply and water quality. Human activities such as high urbanization with lack of infrastructure system and uncontrolled agricultural facilities adversely affect the water resources. Therefore, recent techniques should be investigated in detail to avoid present and future problems like flood, drought and water pollution. Low Impact Development-Best Management Practice (LID-BMP) is such a technique to manage storm water runoff and quality. There are several LID storm water BMPs such as bioretention facilities, rain gardens, storm water wetlands, vegetated rooftops, rain barrels, vegetative swales and permeable pavements. Bioretention is a type of Low Impact Developments (LIDs) implemented to diminish adverse effects of urbanization by reducing peak flows over the surface and improving surface water quality simultaneously. Different soil types in different ratios are considered in bioretention design which affects the performance of bioretention systems. Therefore, in this study, a hydrologic model for bioretention is developed by using Environmental Protection Agency Storm Water Management Model (EPA SWMM). Part of the input data is supplied to the hydrologic model by experimental setup called Rainfall-Watershed-Bioretention (RWB). RWB System is developed to investigate the relation among rainfall, watershed and bioretention. This setup consists of three main parts which are artificial rainfall system, drainage area and four bioretention columns with different soil mixture. EPA SWMM is a dynamic simulation model for the surface runoff which develops on a watershed during a rainfall event. The model is commonly used to plan, analyze, and control storm water runoff, to design drainage system components and to evaluate watershed management of both urban and rural areas. Furthermore, EPA SWMM is a well-known program to model LID-Bioretention in the literature. Therefore, EPA SWMM is employed in drainage

  14. Influence factors and prediction of stormwater runoff of urban green space in Tianjin, China: laboratory experiment and quantitative theory model. (United States)

    Yang, Xu; You, Xue-Yi; Ji, Min; Nima, Ciren


    The effects of limiting factors such as rainfall intensity, rainfall duration, grass type and vegetation coverage on the stormwater runoff of urban green space was investigated in Tianjin. The prediction equation of stormwater runoff was established by the quantitative theory with the lab experimental data of soil columns. It was validated by three field experiments and the relative errors between predicted and measured stormwater runoff are 1.41, 1.52 and 7.35%, respectively. The results implied that the prediction equation could be used to forecast the stormwater runoff of urban green space. The results of range and variance analysis indicated the sequence order of limiting factors is rainfall intensity > grass type > rainfall duration > vegetation coverage. The least runoff of green land in the present study is the combination of rainfall intensity 60.0 mm/h, duration 60.0 min, grass Festuca arundinacea and vegetation coverage 90.0%. When the intensity and duration of rainfall are 60.0 mm/h and 90.0 min, the predicted volumetric runoff coefficient is 0.23 with Festuca arundinacea of 90.0% vegetation coverage. The present approach indicated that green space is an effective method to reduce stormwater runoff and the conclusions are mainly applicable to Tianjin and the semi-arid areas with main summer precipitation and long-time interval rainfalls.

  15. A rainfall-based warning model for shallow landslides (United States)

    Zeng, Yi-Chao; Wang, Ji-Shang; Jan, Chyan-Deng; Yin, Hsiao-Yuan; Lo, Wen-Chun


    According to the statistical data of past rainfall events, the climate has changed in recent decades. Rainfall patterns have presented a more concentrated, high-intensity and long-duration trend in Taiwan. The most representative event is Typhoon Morakot which induced a total of 67 enormous landslides by the extreme amount of rain during August 7 to 10 in 2009 and resulted in the heaviest casualties in southern Taiwan. In addition, the nature of vulnerability such as steep mountains and rushing rivers, fragile geology and loose surface soil results in more severe sediment-relative disasters, in which shallow landslides are widespread hazards in mountainous regions. This research aims to develop and evaluate a model for predicting shallow landslides triggered by rainfall in mountainous area. Considering the feasibility of large-scale application and practical operation, the statistical techniques is adopted to form the landslide model based on abundant historical rainfall data and landslide events. The 16 landslide inventory maps and 15 variation results by comparing satellite images taken before and after the rainfall event were interpreted and delineated since 2004 to 2011. Logit model is utilized for interpreting the relationship between rainfall characteristics and landslide events delineated from satellite. Based on the analysis results of logistic regression, the rainfall factors that are highly related to shallow landslide occurrence are selected which are 3 hours rainfall intensity I3 (mm/hr) and the effective cumulative precipitation Rt (mm) including accumulated rainfall at time t and antecedent rainfall. A landslide rainfall triggering index (LRTI) proposed for assessing the occurrence potential of shallow landslides is defined as the product of I3 and Rt. A form of probability of shallow landslide triggered threshold is proposed to offer a measure of the likelihood of landslide occurrence. Two major critical lines which represent the lower and upper

  16. Coupling machine learning with mechanistic models to study runoff production and river flow at the hillslope scale (United States)

    Marçais, J.; Gupta, H. V.; De Dreuzy, J. R.; Troch, P. A. A.


    Geomorphological structure and geological heterogeneity of hillslopes are major controls on runoff responses. The diversity of hillslopes (morphological shapes and geological structures) on one hand, and the highly non linear runoff mechanism response on the other hand, make it difficult to transpose what has been learnt at one specific hillslope to another. Therefore, making reliable predictions on runoff appearance or river flow for a given hillslope is a challenge. Applying a classic model calibration (based on inverse problems technique) requires doing it for each specific hillslope and having some data available for calibration. When applied to thousands of cases it cannot always be promoted. Here we propose a novel modeling framework based on coupling process based models with data based approach. First we develop a mechanistic model, based on hillslope storage Boussinesq equations (Troch et al. 2003), able to model non linear runoff responses to rainfall at the hillslope scale. Second we set up a model database, representing thousands of non calibrated simulations. These simulations investigate different hillslope shapes (real ones obtained by analyzing 5m digital elevation model of Brittany and synthetic ones), different hillslope geological structures (i.e. different parametrizations) and different hydrologic forcing terms (i.e. different infiltration chronicles). Then, we use this model library to train a machine learning model on this physically based database. Machine learning model performance is then assessed by a classic validating phase (testing it on new hillslopes and comparing machine learning with mechanistic outputs). Finally we use this machine learning model to learn what are the hillslope properties controlling runoffs. This methodology will be further tested combining synthetic datasets with real ones.

  17. Distributed modelling of shallow landslides triggered by intense rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. B. Crosta


    Full Text Available Hazard assessment of shallow landslides represents an important aspect of land management in mountainous areas. Among all the methods proposed in the literature, physically based methods are the only ones that explicitly includes the dynamic factors that control landslide triggering (rainfall pattern, land-use. For this reason, they allow forecasting both the temporal and the spatial distribution of shallow landslides. Physically based methods for shallow landslides are based on the coupling of the infinite slope stability analysis with hydrological models. Three different grid-based distributed hydrological models are presented in this paper: a steady state model, a transient "piston-flow" wetting front model, and a transient diffusive model. A comparative test of these models was performed to simulate landslide occurred during a rainfall event (27–28 June 1997 that triggered hundreds of shallow landslides within Lecco province (central Southern Alps, Italy. In order to test the potential for a completely distributed model for rainfall-triggered landslides, radar detected rainfall intensity has been used. A new procedure for quantitative evaluation of distributed model performance is presented and used in this paper. The diffusive model results in the best model for the simulation of shallow landslide triggering after a rainfall event like the one that we have analysed. Finally, radar data available for the June 1997 event permitted greatly improving the simulation. In particular, radar data allowed to explain the non-uniform distribution of landslides within the study area.

  18. Laboratory Simulation of Urban Runoff and Estimation of Runoff Hydrographs with Experimental Curve Numbers Implemented in USEPA SWMM (United States)

    The prognostic capabilities of a lumped hydrologic modeling approach may be complicated by routing and connectivity among infiltrative and impervious surfaces. We used artificial rainfall to generate runoff from impervious and bare soil boxes arranged in series to simulate differ...

  19. A rainfall simulation study on the relationships between soil test P versus dissolved and potentially bioavailable particulate phosphorus forms in runoff

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)



    Full Text Available Runoff from clayey soils often contains abundant particulate phoshorus (PP, part of which may solubilize in surface waters. Monitoring losses of potentially bioavailable forms of PP is expensive, calling for other ways to predict them. Such predictions could be based on soil loss and available soil P indices, e.g., agronomic P status. To study correlations between P pools in runoff versus soil P saturation (by Mehlich 3 extraction; DPSM3 and acetate soil test P (PAc, 15 clayey soils of south Finland were subjected to laboratory rainfall simulation. Runoff from these simulations was analyzed for concentrations of suspended soil (TSS, dissolved molybdate-reactive P (DRP, total P (TP, and, as normalized to soil loss, potentially bioavailable forms of PP: desorbable (anion exchange resin-extractable, AER-PP/TSS and redox-labile PP (bicarbonate- dithionite-extractable, BD-PP/TSS. Correlation coefficients (r2 between DPSM3 and DRP, AER-PP/ TSS, and BD-PP/TSS equaled 0.92, 0.77, and 0.45, respectively. Runoff P forms were also correlated to soil PAc with r2 values of 0.84, 0.56, and 0.58 for DRP, AER-PP/TSS, and BD-PP/TSS, respectively. Prediction of soil loss-normalized concentrations of potentially bioavailable PP by the agronomic PAc test was considered possible. However, such predictions have a high degree of uncertainty, evidenced by comparison to published field data. Acceptably accurate predictive equations would require a large material as a basis for their construction, and soils should probably also be grouped according to other soil properties that would account for variation in P sorption capacity.;

  20. Modelling the impact of retention–detention units on sewer surcharge and peak and annual runoff reduction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Locatelli, Luca; Gabriel, S.; Mark, O.


    Stormwater management using water sensitive urban design is expected to be part of future drainage systems. This paper aims to model the combination of local retention units, such as soakaways, with subsurface detention units. Soakaways are employed to reduce (by storage and infiltration) peak...... and volume stormwater runoff; however, large retention volumes are required for a significant peak reduction. Peak runoff can therefore be handled by combining detention units with soakaways. This paper models the impact of retrofitting retention-detention units for an existing urbanized catchment in Denmark....... The impact of retrofitting a retention-detention unit of 3.3 m(3)/100 m(2) (volume/impervious area) was simulated for a small catchment in Copenhagen using MIKE URBAN. The retention-detention unit was shown to prevent flooding from the sewer for a 10-year rainfall event. Statistical analysis of continuous...

  1. The modification of the typhoon rainfall climatology model in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C.-S. Lee


    Full Text Available This study is focused on the modification of a typhoon rainfall climatological model, by using the dataset up to 2006 and including data collected from rain gauge stations established after the 921 earthquake (1999. Subsequently, the climatology rainfall models for westward- and northward-moving typhoons are established by using the typhoon track classification from the Central Weather Bureau. These models are also evaluated and examined using dependent cases collected between 1989 and 2006 and independent cases collected from 2007 to 2011. For the dependent cases, the average total rainfall at all rain gauge stations forecasted using the climatology rainfall models for westward- (W-TRCM12 and northward-moving (N-TRCM12 typhoons is superior to that obtained using the original climatological model (TRCM06. Model W-TRCM12 significantly improves the precipitation underestimation of model TRCM06. The independent cases show that model W-TRCM12 provides better accumulated rainfall forecasts and distributions than model TRCM06. A climatological model for accompanied northeastern monsoons (A-TRCM12 for special typhoon types has also been established. The current A-TRCM12 model only contains five historical cases and various typhoon combinations can cause precipitation in different regions. Therefore, precipitation is likely to be significantly overestimated and high false alarm ratios are likely to occur in specific regions. For example, model A-TRCM12 significantly overestimates the rainfall forecast for Typhoon Mitag, an independent case from 2007. However, it has a higher probability of detection than model TRCM06. From a disaster prevention perspective, a high probability of detection is much more important than a high false alarm ratio. The modified models can contribute significantly to operational forecast.

  2. Rainfall and runoff regime trends in mountain catchments (Case study area: the upper Hron River basin, Slovakia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Blahušiaková Andrea


    Full Text Available This paper presents an analysis of trends and causes of changes of selected hydroclimatic variables influencing the runoff regime in the upper Hron River basin (Slovakia. Different methods for identifying trends in data series are evaluated and include: simple mass curve analysis, linear regression, frequency analysis of flood events, use of the Indicators of Hydrological Alteration software, and the Mann-Kendall test. Analyses are performed for data from two periods (1931-2010 and 1961-2010. The changes in runoff are significant, especially in terms of lower QMax and 75 percentile values. This fact is also confirmed by the lower frequency and extremity of flood events. The 1980s are considered a turning point in the development of all hydroclimatic variables. The Mann-Kendall test shows a significant decrease in runoff in the winter period. The main causes of runoff decline are: the considerable increase in air temperature, the decrease in snow cover depth and changes in seasonal distribution of precipitation amounts.

  3. Modeling runoff and erosion risk in a~small steep cultivated watershed using different data sources: from on-site measurements to farmers' perceptions (United States)

    Auvet, B.; Lidon, B.; Kartiwa, B.; Le Bissonnais, Y.; Poussin, J.-C.


    This paper presents an approach to model runoff and erosion risk in a context of data scarcity, whereas the majority of available models require large quantities of physical data that are frequently not accessible. To overcome this problem, our approach uses different sources of data, particularly on agricultural practices (tillage and land cover) and farmers' perceptions of runoff and erosion. The model was developed on a small (5 ha) cultivated watershed characterized by extreme conditions (slopes of up to 55 %, extreme rainfall events) on the Merapi volcano in Indonesia. Runoff was modelled using two versions of STREAM. First, a lumped version was used to determine the global parameters of the watershed. Second, a distributed version used three parameters for the production of runoff (slope, land cover and roughness), a precise DEM, and the position of waterways for runoff distribution. This information was derived from field observations and interviews with farmers. Both surface runoff models accurately reproduced runoff at the outlet. However, the distributed model (Nash-Sutcliffe = 0.94) was more accurate than the adjusted lumped model (N-S = 0.85), especially for the smallest and biggest runoff events, and produced accurate spatial distribution of runoff production and concentration. Different types of erosion processes (landslides, linear inter-ridge erosion, linear erosion in main waterways) were modelled as a combination of a hazard map (the spatial distribution of runoff/infiltration volume provided by the distributed model), and a susceptibility map combining slope, land cover and tillage, derived from in situ observations and interviews with farmers. Each erosion risk map gives a spatial representation of the different erosion processes including risk intensities and frequencies that were validated by the farmers and by in situ observations. Maps of erosion risk confirmed the impact of the concentration of runoff, the high susceptibility of long steep

  4. Estimating runoff from ungauged catchments for reservoir water ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    a combination of in-situ measurements and remotely-sensed data to predict ungauged runoff from Middle Zambezi Basin using the Hydrologic Engineering Centre Hydrologic Modelling. System (HEC-HMS) rainfall-runoff model, with the aim of improving water balance estimation. MATERIALS AND METHODS. Study area.

  5. Downscaling of rainfall in Peru using Generalised Linear Models (United States)

    Bergin, E.; Buytaert, W.; Onof, C.; Wheater, H.


    The assessment of water resources in the Peruvian Andes is particularly important because the Peruvian economy relies heavily on agriculture. Much of the agricultural land is situated near to the coast and relies on large quantities of water for irrigation. The simulation of synthetic rainfall series is thus important to evaluate the reliability of water supplies for current and future scenarios of climate change. In addition to water resources concerns, there is also a need to understand extreme heavy rainfall events, as there was significant flooding in Machu Picchu in 2010. The region exhibits a reduction of rainfall in 1983, associated with El Nino Southern Oscillation (SOI). NCEP Reanalysis 1 data was used to provide weather variable data. Correlations were calculated for several weather variables using raingauge data in the Andes. These were used to evaluate teleconnections and provide suggested covariates for the downscaling model. External covariates used in the model include sea level pressure and sea surface temperature over the region of the Humboldt Current. Relative humidity and temperature data over the region are also included. The SOI teleconnection is also used. Covariates are standardised using observations for 1960-1990. The GlimClim downscaling model was used to fit a stochastic daily rainfall model to 13 sites in the Peruvian Andes. Results indicate that the model is able to reproduce rainfall statistics well, despite the large area used. Although the correlation between individual rain gauges is generally quite low, all sites are affected by similar weather patterns. This is an assumption of the GlimClim downscaling model. Climate change scenarios are considered using several GCM outputs for the A1B scenario. GCM data was corrected for bias using 1960-1990 outputs from the 20C3M scenario. Rainfall statistics for current and future scenarios are compared. The region shows an overall decrease in mean rainfall but with an increase in variance.

  6. Modelling Ecuador's rainfall distribution according to geographical characteristics. (United States)

    Tobar, Vladimiro; Wyseure, Guido


    It is known that rainfall is affected by terrain characteristics and some studies had focussed on its distribution over complex terrain. Ecuador's temporal and spatial rainfall distribution is affected by its location on the ITCZ, the marine currents in the Pacific, the Amazon rainforest, and the Andes mountain range. Although all these factors are important, we think that the latter one may hold a key for modelling spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall. The study considered 30 years of monthly data from 319 rainfall stations having at least 10 years of data available. The relatively low density of stations and their location in accessible sites near to main roads or rivers, leave large and important areas ungauged, making it not appropriate to rely on traditional interpolation techniques to estimate regional rainfall for water balance. The aim of this research was to come up with a useful model for seasonal rainfall distribution in Ecuador based on geographical characteristics to allow its spatial generalization. The target for modelling was the seasonal rainfall, characterized by nine percentiles for each one of the 12 months of the year that results in 108 response variables, later on reduced to four principal components comprising 94% of the total variability. Predictor variables for the model were: geographic coordinates, elevation, main wind effects from the Amazon and Coast, Valley and Hill indexes, and average and maximum elevation above the selected rainfall station to the east and to the west, for each one of 18 directions (50-135°, by 5°) adding up to 79 predictors. A multiple linear regression model by the Elastic-net algorithm with cross-validation was applied for each one of the PC as response to select the most important ones from the 79 predictor variables. The Elastic-net algorithm deals well with collinearity problems, while allowing variable selection in a blended approach between the Ridge and Lasso regression. The model fitting

  7. Runoff forecasting using a Takagi-Sugeno neuro-fuzzy model with online learning (United States)

    Talei, Amin; Chua, Lloyd Hock Chye; Quek, Chai; Jansson, Per-Erik


    SummaryA study using local learning Neuro-Fuzzy System (NFS) was undertaken for a rainfall-runoff modeling application. The local learning model was first tested on three different catchments: an outdoor experimental catchment measuring 25 m2 (Catchment 1), a small urban catchment 5.6 km2 in size (Catchment 2), and a large rural watershed with area of 241.3 km2 (Catchment 3). The results obtained from the local learning model were comparable or better than results obtained from physically-based, i.e. Kinematic Wave Model (KWM), Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), and Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) model. The local learning algorithm also required a shorter training time compared to a global learning NFS model. The local learning model was next tested in real-time mode, where the model was continuously adapted when presented with current information in real time. The real-time implementation of the local learning model gave better results, without the need for retraining, when compared to a batch NFS model, where it was found that the batch model had to be retrained periodically in order to achieve similar results.

  8. Adequacy of TRMM satellite rainfall data in driving the SWAT modeling of Tiaoxi catchment (Taihu lake basin, China) (United States)

    Li, Dan; Christakos, George; Ding, Xinxin; Wu, Jiaping


    Spatial rainfall data is an essential input to Distributed Hydrological Models (DHM), and a significant contributor to hydrological model uncertainty. Model uncertainty is higher when rain gauges are sparse, as is often the case in practice. Currently, satellite-based precipitation products increasingly provide an alternative means to ground-based rainfall estimates, in which case a rigorous product assessment is required before implementation. Accordingly, the twofold objective of this work paper was the real-world assessment of both (a) the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rainfall product using gauge data, and (b) the TRMM product's role in forcing data for hydrologic simulations in the area of the Tiaoxi catchment (Taihu lake basin, China). The TRMM rainfall products used in this study are the Version-7 real-time 3B42RT and the post-real-time 3B42. It was found that the TRMM rainfall data showed a superior performance at the monthly and annual scales, fitting well with surface observation-based frequency rainfall distributions. The Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency (NSCE) and the relative bias ratio (BIAS) were used to evaluate hydrologic model performance. The satisfactory performance of the monthly runoff simulations in the Tiaoxi study supports the view that the implementation of real-time 3B42RT allows considerable room for improvement. At the same time, post-real-time 3B42 can be a valuable tool of hydrologic modeling, water balance analysis, and basin water resource management, especially in developing countries or at remote locations in which rainfall gauges are scarce.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)



    Full Text Available Sensitivity of the HEC-HMS runoff model for near-surface soil moisture contents on the example of a rapid-response catchment in SW Hungary. Due to the global climate change, flash floods are one of the most significant natural hazards of today. To prevent, or at least mitigate flash flood triggered losses, numeric model based flood forecasting models are ideal tools to predict stream water levels. Model accuracy, nonetheless is profoundly influenced by input data quality. To obtain input data for the HEC-HMS distributed rainfall- runoff model, widely used for runoff forecasting, in present study we have regularly monitored ground precipitation, discharge and soil moisture in the Pósa Valley watershed (1.7 km2 in SW Hungary and data was extrapolated and upscaled to the broader area of the Bükkösd Watershed (99 km2. To test model applicability for flow time series reconstruction, the peak flow event of May 15 to 18, 2010 on the Bükkösd Stream was reproduced with the HEC-HMS. Model sensitivity was tested for various antecedent soil moisture values estimated from 2009, 2011 and 2012 in situ measured data. The output of the current research could be utilized for increasing the accuracy of rainfall-runoff model based flash flood warning systems for forested rapid response catchments that are representative for low-mountain environments under humid continental climates.

  10. Using the snowmelt runoff model to evaluate climate change effects and to compare basin runoff between New Mexico and Idaho. (United States)

    The Snowmelt Runoff Model(SRM) has been developed and tested in small to large basins worldwide. SRM has been found to be very useful for understanding snowmelt processes as well as for simulating or forecasting snowmelt-derived water supplies. SRM is being used in New Mexico in a NSF-funded EPSCo...

  11. How far can we go in hydrological modelling without any knowledge of runoff formation processes? (United States)

    Ayzel, Georgy


    Hydrological modelling is a challenging scientific issue for the last 50 years and tend to be it further because of the highest level of runoff formation processes complexity at the different spatio-temporal scales. Enormous number of modelling-related papers have submitted to the top-ranked journals every year, but in this publication speed race authors have pay increasing attention to the models and data they use by itself rather than underlying watershed processes. Great community effort of the free and open-source models sharing with high availability of hydrometeorological data sources led to conceptual shifting paradigm of hydrological science to the technical-oriented direction. In the third-world countries this shifting is more clear by the reason of field studies absence and obligatory requirement of practical significance of the research supported by the government funds. As a result we get a state of hydrological modelling discipline closer to the aim of high Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) achievement rather than watershed processes understanding. Both lumped physically-based land-surface model SWAP (Soil Water - Atmosphere - Plants) and SCE-UA (Shuffled Complex Evolution method developed at The University of Arizona) technique for robust model parameters search were used for the runoff modelling of 323 MOPEX watersheds. No one special data analysis and expert knowledge-based decisions were not performed. Median value of NSE is 0.652 and 90% of watersheds have efficiency bigger than 0.5. Thus without any information of particular features of each watershed satisfactory modelling results were obtained. To prove our conclusions we build cutting-edge conceptual rainfall-runoff model based on decision trees and adaptive boosting machine learning algorithms for the one small watershed in USA. No one special data analysis or feature engineering was not performed too. Obtained results demonstrate great model prediction power both for learning and testing

  12. Change of Rainfall-runoff event hysteresis in suspended sediments due to surface decontamination in the area affected by the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident (United States)

    Onda, Y.; Yoshimura, K.; Taniguchi, K.; Kubo, T.; Smith, H.; Brake, W.; Kuramoto, T.; Sato, T.


    The Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) on March 2011 accident released massive amounts of radiocesium into the terrestrial environment such as Cs-137 and Cs-134. Where deposition density of Cs-137 exceeds loughly 500 kBq/m2, evacuation has been ordered, and the cropland and paddy field have become grassland in the summer of 2011.A large scale government funded research program has been started (Saito and Onda, 2015) to monitor the amount of radiocesium wash off from the catchments started June, 2011 (Yamashiki et al 2013) starting initial 6 sites in the Abukuma river watershed in the nested structure. Two stations were installed on the main river channel (Iwanuma; 5313 km2 and Fushiguro; 3645 km2), and the more highly-contaminated Kuchibuto sub-basin (Mizusakai; 7.5km2, Kuchibuto Upstream; 21.4 km2, Kuchibuto middle stream; 63 km2, Kuchibuto downstream; 135 km2) was selected for detailed monitoring. The sites are increased to 30 sites (Yoshimura et al., 2015) to cover the most of the area within 80 km from the FDNPP in 2013.Continuous measurements of flow and turbidity (for estimating suspended sediment concentration) were made at each monitoring station. Turbidity meters (Analyte turbidity meter, MacVan 3000-NTU) calibrated with bottom sediment of the Horai reservoir upstream the Abukuma river, and water level gauges (RuggedTROLL100) . During our monitoring of topsoil up to 5 cm and replaced with lower part of the soil taken nearby in the two upstream catchments (Kuchibuto upstream, Mizusakai ) mainly in 2014 to 2015.The change of rainfall-runoff event hysteresis in suspended sediments before and after the decontamination was significant. From 2011 to 2013. Most of the response of suspended sediment occurs before the rainfall peak. However, after 2014, the response occurs after the runoff events, and suspended sediment concentration has been increased especially in the stations where decontamination area ratio are high.

  13. Stormwater Runoff and Water Quality Modeling in Urban Maryland (United States)

    Wang, J.; Forman, B. A.; Natarajan, P.; Davis, A.


    Urbanization significantly affects storm water runoff through the creation of new impervious surfaces such as highways, parking lots, and rooftops. Such changes can adversely impact the downstream receiving water bodies in terms of physical, chemical, and biological conditions. In order to mitigate the effects of urbanization on downstream water bodies, stormwater control measures (SCMs) have been widely used (e.g., infiltration basins, bioswales). A suite of observations from an infiltration basin installed adjacent to a highway in urban Maryland was used to evaluate stormwater runoff attenuation and pollutant removal rates at the well-instrumented SCM study site. In this study, the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) was used to simulate the performance of the SCM. An automatic, split-sample calibration framework was developed to improve SWMM performance efficiency. The results indicate SWMM can accurately reproduce the hydraulic response of the SCM (in terms of reproducing measured inflow and outflow) during synoptic scale storm events lasting more than one day, but is less accurate during storm events lasting only a few hours. Similar results were found for a suite of modeled (and observed) water quality constituents, including suspended sediment, metals, N, P, and chloride.

  14. Model simulations of rainfall over southern Africa and its eastern ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Rainfall simulations over southern and tropical Africa in the form of low-resolution Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations and higher resolution National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis downscalings are presented and evaluated in this paper. The model used is the ...

  15. Predicting Surface Runoff from Catchment to Large Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongxia Li


    Full Text Available Predicting surface runoff from catchment to large region is a fundamental and challenging task in hydrology. This paper presents a comprehensive review for various studies conducted for improving runoff predictions from catchment to large region in the last several decades. This review summarizes the well-established methods and discusses some promising approaches from the following four research fields: (1 modeling catchment, regional and global runoff using lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff models, distributed hydrological models, and land surface models, (2 parameterizing hydrological models in ungauged catchments, (3 improving hydrological model structure, and (4 using new remote sensing precipitation data.

  16. Estimating runoff from ungauged catchments for reservoir water ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study applied a rainfall-runoff model (HEC-HMS) and GIS techniques to estimate both the gauged and ungauged runoff contribution to the water balance of Cahora Bassa. The rivers considered in the study are the Zambezi, Kafue, Luangwa, Chongwe, Musengezi and Manyame. Missing data were generated using the ...

  17. Analysis of Rainfall Characteristicsfor Flood Estimation in Way Awi Watershed

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    Kusumastuti D.I.


    Full Text Available This study investigates rainfall intensity distribution in Way Awi watershed located in Bandar Lampung, and how their impacts on flood peak and flood hydrographs. Hourly rainfall data is examined to obtain design rainfall intensity and rainfall intensity distribution at rainfall duration from three to eight hours. Rainfall-runoff model, i.e. Rational method is used to calculate flood peak while unit hydrograph method is used to develop flood hydrograph. This study shows that in Way Awi watershed 88.3% to 96.4% of 24-hour rain occurs in three to eight hour durations. In addition, rainfall with three hour duration generates the highest flood peak, followed by four hour duration rainfall. When rainfall duration and design rainfall intensity are the same but rainfall intensity distribution is different, generated flood hydrograph may have different flood peak magnitude and timing. Result of this study is useful for flood analysis and mitigation in Way Awi watershed.

  18. Revisiting a Hydrological Analysis Framework with International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project Initiative 2 Rainfall, Net Radiation, and Runoff Fields (United States)

    Koster, Randal D.; Fekete, Balazs M.; Huffman, George J.; Stackhouse, Paul W.


    The International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project Initiative 2 (ISLSCP-2) data set provides the data needed to characterize the surface water budget across much of the globe in terms of energy availability (net radiation) and water availability (precipitation) controls. The data, on average, are shown to be consistent with Budyko s decades-old framework, thereby demonstrating the continuing relevance of Budyko s semiempirical relationships. This consistency, however, appears only when a small subset of the data with hydrologically suspicious behavior is removed from the analysis. In general, the precipitation, net radiation, and runoff data also appear consistent in their interannual variability and in the phasing of their seasonal cycles.

  19. Climate models produce skillful predictions of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (United States)

    DelSole, Timothy; Shukla, Jagadish


    After more than one hundred years of statistical forecasting and fifty years of climate model development, this paper shows that the skill of predicting Indian monsoon rainfall with coupled atmosphere-ocean models initialized in May is statistically significant, and much higher than can be predicted empirically from May sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The superior skill of dynamical models is attributed to the fact that slowly evolving sea surface temperatures are the primary source of predictability, and to the fact that climate models produce more skillful predictions of June-September sea surface temperatures. The recent apparent breakdown in SST-monsoon relation can be simulated in coupled models, even though the relation is significant and relatively constant on an ensemble mean basis, suggesting that the observed breakdown could be due, in large part, to sampling variability. Despite the observed breakdown, skillful predictions of monsoon rainfall can be constructed using sea surface temperatures predicted by dynamical models. This fact opens the possibility of using readily available seasonal predictions of sea surface temperatures to make real-time skillful predictions of Indian summer monsoon rainfall. In addition, predictors based on tendency of SST during spring information show skill during both the recent and historical periods and hence may provide more skillful predictions of monsoon rainfall than predictors based on a single month.

  20. Runoff Modelling in Urban Storm Drainage by Neural Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Michael R.; Brorsen, Michael; Schaarup-Jensen, Kjeld


    A neural network is used to simulate folw and water levels in a sewer system. The calibration of th neural network is based on a few measured events and the network is validated against measureed events as well as flow simulated with the MOUSE model (Lindberg and Joergensen, 1986). The neural...... network is used to compute flow or water level at selected points in the sewer system, and to forecast the flow from a small residential area. The main advantages of the neural network are the build-in self calibration procedure and high speed performance, but the neural network cannot be used to extract...... knowledge of the runoff process. The neural network was found to simulate 150 times faster than e.g. the MOUSE model....

  1. Retrofitting impervious urban infrastructure with green technology for rainfall-runoff restoration, indirect reuse and pollution load reduction. (United States)

    Sansalone, John; Raje, Saurabh; Kertesz, Ruben; Maccarone, Kerrilynn; Seltzer, Karl; Siminari, Michele; Simms, Peter; Wood, Brandon


    The built environs alter hydrology and water resource chemistry. Florida is subject to nutrient criteria and is promulgating "no-net-load-increase" criteria for runoff and constituents (nutrients and particulate matter, PM). With such criteria, green infrastructure, hydrologic restoration, indirect reuse and source control are potential design solutions. The study simulates runoff and constituent load control through urban source area re-design to provide long-term "no-net-load-increases". A long-term continuous simulation of pre- and post-development response for an existing surface parking facility is quantified. Retrofits include a biofiltration area reactor (BAR) for hydrologic and denitrification control. A linear infiltration reactor (LIR) of cementitious permeable pavement (CPP) provides infiltration, adsorption and filtration. Pavement cleaning provided source control. Simulation of climate and source area data indicates re-design achieves "no-net-load-increases" at lower costs compared to standard construction. The retrofit system yields lower cost per nutrient load treated compared to Best Management Practices (BMPs). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Interpolation of daily rainfall using spatiotemporal models and clustering

    KAUST Repository

    Militino, A. F.


    Accumulated daily rainfall in non-observed locations on a particular day is frequently required as input to decision-making tools in precision agriculture or for hydrological or meteorological studies. Various solutions and estimation procedures have been proposed in the literature depending on the auxiliary information and the availability of data, but most such solutions are oriented to interpolating spatial data without incorporating temporal dependence. When data are available in space and time, spatiotemporal models usually provide better solutions. Here, we analyse the performance of three spatiotemporal models fitted to the whole sampled set and to clusters within the sampled set. The data consists of daily observations collected from 87 manual rainfall gauges from 1990 to 2010 in Navarre, Spain. The accuracy and precision of the interpolated data are compared with real data from 33 automated rainfall gauges in the same region, but placed in different locations than the manual rainfall gauges. Root mean squared error by months and by year are also provided. To illustrate these models, we also map interpolated daily precipitations and standard errors on a 1km2 grid in the whole region. © 2014 Royal Meteorological Society.

  3. Flood modelling with global precipitation measurement (GPM) satellite rainfall data: a case study of Dehradun, Uttarakhand, India (United States)

    Sai Krishna, V. V.; Dikshit, Anil Kumar; Pandey, Kamal


    Urban expansion, water bodies and climate change are inextricably linked with each other. The macro and micro level climate changes are leading to extreme precipitation events which have severe consequences on flooding in urban areas. Flood simulations shall be helpful in demarcation of flooded areas and effective flood planning and preparedness. The temporal availability of satellite rainfall data at varying spatial scale of 0.10 to 0.50 is helpful in near real time flood simulations. The present research aims at analysing stream flow and runoff to monitor flood condition using satellite rainfall data in a hydrologic model. The satellite rainfall data used in the research was NASA's Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG), which is available at 30 minutes temporal resolution. Landsat data was used for mapping the water bodies in the study area. Land use land cover (LULC) data was prepared using Landsat 8 data with maximum likelihood technique that was provided as an input to the HEC-HMS hydrological model. The research was applied to one of the urbanized cities of India, viz. Dehradun, which is the capital of Uttarakhand State. The research helped in identifying the flood vulnerability at the basin level on the basis of the runoff and various socio economic parameters using multi criteria analysis.

  4. Forecasting Rainfall Induced Landslide using High Resolution DEM and Simple Water Budget Model (United States)

    Luzon, P. K. D.; Lagmay, A. M. F. A.


    Philippines is hit by an average of 20 typhoons per year bringing large amount of rainfall. Monsoon carrying rain coming from the southwest of the country also contributes to the annual total rainfall that causes different hazards. Such is shallow landslide mainly triggered by high saturation of soil due to continuous downpour which could take up from hours to days. Recent event like this happened in Zambales province September of 2013 where torrential rain occurred for 24 hours amounting to half a month of rain. Rainfall intensity measured by the nearest weather station averaged to 21 mm/hr from 10 pm of 22 until 10 am the following day. The monsoon rains was intensified by the presence of Typhoon Usagi positioned north and heading northwest of the country. A number of landslides due to this happened in 3 different municipalities; Subic, San Marcelino and Castillejos. The disaster have taken 30 lives from the province. Monitoring these areas for the entire country is but a big challenge in all aspect of disaster preparedness and management. The approach of this paper is utilizing the available forecast of rainfall amount to monitor highly hazardous area during the rainy seasons and forecasting possible landslide that could happen. A simple water budget model following the equation Perct=Pt-R/Ot-∆STt-AETt (where as the terms are Percolation, Runoff, Change in Storage, and Actual Evapotraspiration) was implemented in quantifying all the water budget component. Computations are in Python scripted grid system utilizing the widely used GIS forms for easy transfer of data and faster calculation. Results of successive runs will let percolation and change in water storage as indicators of possible landslide.. This approach needs three primary sets of data; weather data, topographic data, and soil parameters. This research uses 5 m resolution DEM (IfSAR) to define the topography. Soil parameters are from fieldworks conducted. Weather data are from the Philippine

  5. Possibilistic uncertainty analysis of a conceptual model of snowmelt runoff

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. P. Jacquin


    Full Text Available This study presents the analysis of predictive uncertainty of a conceptual type snowmelt runoff model. The method applied uses possibilistic rather than probabilistic calculus for the evaluation of predictive uncertainty. Possibility theory is an information theory meant to model uncertainties caused by imprecise or incomplete knowledge about a real system rather than by randomness. A snow dominated catchment in the Chilean Andes is used as case study. Predictive uncertainty arising from parameter uncertainties of the watershed model is assessed. Model performance is evaluated according to several criteria, in order to define the possibility distribution of the parameter vector. The plausibility of the simulated glacier mass balance and snow cover are used for further constraining the model representations. Possibility distributions of the discharge estimates and prediction uncertainty bounds are subsequently derived. The results of the study indicate that the use of additional information allows a reduction of predictive uncertainty. In particular, the assessment of the simulated glacier mass balance and snow cover helps to reduce the width of the uncertainty bounds without a significant increment in the number of unbounded observations.

  6. Real time adjustment of slow changing flow components in distributed urban runoff models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borup, Morten; Grum, M.; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen


    In many urban runoff systems infiltrating water contributes with a substantial part of the total inflow and therefore most urban runoff modelling packages include hydrological models for simulating the infiltrating inflow. This paper presents a method for deterministic updating of the hydrological...

  7. A meteo-hydrological modelling system for the reconstruction of river runoff: the case of the Ofanto river catchment (United States)

    Verri, Giorgia; Pinardi, Nadia; Gochis, David; Tribbia, Joseph; Navarra, Antonio; Coppini, Giovanni; Vukicevic, Tomislava


    A meteo-hydrological modelling system has been designed for the reconstruction of long time series of rainfall and river runoff events. The modelling chain consists of the mesoscale meteorological model of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), the land surface model NOAH-MP and the hydrology-hydraulics model WRF-Hydro. Two 3-month periods are reconstructed for winter 2011 and autumn 2013, containing heavy rainfall and river flooding events. Several sensitivity tests were performed along with an assessment of which tunable parameters, numerical choices and forcing data most impacted on the modelling performance.The calibration of the experiments highlighted that the infiltration and aquifer coefficients should be considered as seasonally dependent.The WRF precipitation was validated by a comparison with rain gauges in the Ofanto basin. The WRF model was demonstrated to be sensitive to the initialization time and a spin-up of about 1.5 days was needed before the start of the major rainfall events in order to improve the accuracy of the reconstruction. However, this was not sufficient and an optimal interpolation method was developed to correct the precipitation simulation. It is based on an objective analysis (OA) and a least square (LS) melding scheme, collectively named OA+LS. We demonstrated that the OA+LS method is a powerful tool to reduce the precipitation uncertainties and produce a lower error precipitation reconstruction that itself generates a better river discharge time series. The validation of the river streamflow showed promising statistical indices.The final set-up of our meteo-hydrological modelling system was able to realistically reconstruct the local rainfall and the Ofanto hydrograph.

  8. Exploring uncertainty and model predictive performance concepts via a modular snowmelt-runoff modeling framework (United States)

    Tyler Jon Smith; Lucy Amanda. Marshall


    Model selection is an extremely important aspect of many hydrologic modeling studies because of the complexity, variability, and uncertainty that surrounds the current understanding of watershed-scale systems. However, development and implementation of a complete precipitation-runoff modeling framework, from model selection to calibration and uncertainty analysis, are...

  9. Modelling and assessment of urban flood hazards based on rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curves reformation


    Ghazavi, Reza; Moafi Rabori, Ali; Ahadnejad Reveshty, Mohsen


    Estimate design storm based on rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves is an important parameter for hydrologic planning of urban areas. The main aim of this study was to estimate rainfall intensities of Zanjan city watershed based on overall relationship of rainfall IDF curves and appropriate model of hourly rainfall estimation (Sherman method, Ghahreman and Abkhezr method). Hydrologic and hydraulic impacts of rainfall IDF curves change in flood properties was evaluated via Stormw...

  10. A Poisson Cluster Stochastic Rainfall Generator That Accounts for the Interannual Variability of Rainfall Statistics: Validation at Various Geographic Locations across the United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dongkyun Kim


    Full Text Available A novel approach for a Poisson cluster stochastic rainfall generator was validated in its ability to reproduce important rainfall and watershed response characteristics at 104 locations in the United States. The suggested novel approach, The Hybrid Model (THM, as compared to the traditional Poisson cluster rainfall modeling approaches, has an additional capability to account for the interannual variability of rainfall statistics. THM and a traditional approach of Poisson cluster rainfall model (modified Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulse model were compared in their ability to reproduce the characteristics of extreme rainfall and watershed response variables such as runoff and peak flow. The results of the comparison indicate that THM generally outperforms the traditional approach in reproducing the distributions of peak rainfall, peak flow, and runoff volume. In addition, THM significantly outperformed the traditional approach in reproducing extreme rainfall by 2.3% to 66% and extreme flow values by 32% to 71%.

  11. Logit-normal mixed model for Indian Monsoon rainfall extremes (United States)

    Dietz, L. R.; Chatterjee, S.


    Describing the nature and variability of Indian monsoon rainfall extremes is a topic of much debate in the current literature. We suggest the use of a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), specifically, the logit-normal mixed model, to describe the underlying structure of this complex climatic event. Several GLMM algorithms are described and simulations are performed to vet these algorithms before applying them to the Indian precipitation data procured from the National Climatic Data Center. The logit-normal model was applied with fixed covariates of latitude, longitude, elevation, daily minimum and maximum temperatures with a random intercept by weather station. In general, the estimation methods concurred in their suggestion of a relationship between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and extreme rainfall variability estimates. This work provides a valuable starting point for extending GLMM to incorporate the intricate dependencies in extreme climate events.

  12. Calibration of a Hydrological Model using Ensemble Satellite Rainfall Inputs (United States)

    Skinner, Christopher; Bellerby, Timothy


    A combination of satellite rainfall estimates (SRFE) and hydrological models can provide useful information for many remote areas of the planet. However, each component contains its own uncertainties and these uncertainties will interact when SRFE are used as inputs for hydrological models. For any assessment of a coupled system such as this there is a requirement for a comprehensive analysis of all sources of uncertainty, with full consideration of both facets. SRFE have been shown to be useful in many areas that lack the infrastructure to make timely and accurate estimations of rainfall from the ground. Sub-Saharan Africa is typical of this, where a paucity of rain recording radar and sparse gauging networks combine with a highly variable climate and a reliance on rain-fed agriculture. When operating at higher spatial and temporal resolutions, SRFE contain large uncertainties which will propagate through a hydrological model if used as a driving input. This study used a sequential method to produce ensemble SRFE based around the full conditional distribution of recorded rainfall from a sparse, historic raingauge network. The TAMSIM method (introduced by Teo, 2006) was used to produce 200 unique yet equiprobable SRFE, each used as a driver to a downstream hydrological model. Traditional hydrological modelling uses the adjustment of variable parameters within the model to reduce the error between a recorded record of discharge and the modelled one, and many automatic procedures have been produced to refine this calibration process. When SRFE have been used as a driver, little consideration has been paid to this process and often a calibration using the raingauge data has been used, without any consideration to the resulting uncertainty within the hydrological model and its calibration. A similar issue arises when ensemble inputs are used to a hydrological model that has been calibrated using a deterministic estimate of rainfall. This study has shown that such

  13. PDS-Modelling and Regional Bayesian Estimation of Extreme Rainfalls

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan; Harremoës, Poul


    rainfalls. The method is applied to two variables: the total precipitation depth and the maximum 10-minute rain intensity of individual storms. On the basis of the atsite modelling a regional analysis is carried out. It is shown that the previous assumption of spatial homogeneity of extreme rainfalls......Since 1979 a country-wide system of raingauges has been operated in Denmark in order to obtain a better basis for design and analysis of urban drainage systems. As an alternative to the traditional non-parametric approach the Partial Duration Series method is employed in the modelling of extreme....... The application of the Bayesian approach is derived in case of both exponential and generalized Pareto distributed exceedances. Finally, the aspect of including economic perspectives in the estimation of the design events is briefly discussed....

  14. Comparative Assessment of Runoff and its Components in Two Catchments of Upper Indus Basin by Using a Semi Distributed Glacio-Hydrological Model (United States)

    Ali, S. H.; Bano, I.; Kayastha, R. B.; Shrestha, A.


    The hydrology of Upper Indus basin is not recognized well due to the intricacies in the climate and geography, and the scarcity of data above 5000 m a.s.l where most of the precipitation falls in the form of snow. The main objective of this study is to measure the contributions of different components of runoff in Upper Indus basin. To achieve this goal, the Modified positive degree day model (MPDDM) was used to simulate the runoff and investigate its components in two catchments of Upper Indus basin, Hunza and Gilgit River basins. These two catchments were selected because of their different glacier coverage, contrasting area distribution at high altitudes and significant impact on the Upper Indus River flow. The components of runoff like snow-ice melt and rainfall-base flow were identified by the model. The simulation results show that the MPDDM shows a good agreement between observed and modeled runoff of these two catchments and the effects of snow and ice are mainly reliant on the catchment characteristics and the glaciated area. For Gilgit River basin, the largest contributor to runoff is rain-base flow, whereas large contribution of snow-ice melt observed in Hunza River basin due to its large fraction of glaciated area. This research will not only contribute to the better understanding of the impacts of climate change on the hydrological response in the Upper Indus, but will also provide guidance for the development of hydropower potential and water resources assessment in these catchments.

  15. Comparing projections of future changes in runoff from hydrological and biome models in ISI-MIP

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Davie, J. C. S.; Falloon, P. D.; Kahana, R.; Dankers, R.; Betts, R.; Portmann, F. T.; Wisser, D.; Clark, D. B.; Ito, A.; Masaki, Y.; Nishina, K.; Fekete, B.; Tessler, Z.; Wada, Y.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/341387819; Liu, X.; Tang, Q.; Hagemann, S.; Stacke, T.; Pavlick, R.; Schaphoff, S.; Gosling, S. N.; Franssen, W.; Arnell, N.


    Future changes in runoff can have important implications for water resources and flooding. In this study, runoff projections from ISI-MIP (Inter-sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project) simulations forced with HadGEM2-ES bias-corrected climate data under the Representative Concentration

  16. Markov-switching model for nonstationary runoff conditioned on El Nino information

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gelati, Emiliano; Madsen, H.; Rosbjerg, Dan


    We define a Markov-modulated autoregressive model with exogenous input (MARX) to generate runoff scenarios using climatic information. Runoff parameterization is assumed to be conditioned on a hidden climate state following a Markov chain, where state transition probabilities are functions...... of the climatic input. MARX allows stochastic modeling of nonstationary runoff, as runoff anomalies are described by a mixture of autoregressive models with exogenous input, each one corresponding to a climate state. We apply MARX to inflow time series of the Daule Peripa reservoir (Ecuador). El Nino Southern...... Oscillation (ENSO) information is used to condition runoff parameterization. Among the investigated ENSO indexes, the NINO 1+2 sea surface temperature anomalies and the trans-Nino index perform best as predictors. In the perspective of reservoir optimization at various time scales, MARX produces realistic...

  17. Influence of rainfall observation network on model calibration and application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Bárdossy


    Full Text Available The objective in this study is to investigate the influence of the spatial resolution of the rainfall input on the model calibration and application. The analysis is carried out by varying the distribution of the raingauge network. A meso-scale catchment located in southwest Germany has been selected for this study. First, the semi-distributed HBV model is calibrated with the precipitation interpolated from the available observed rainfall of the different raingauge networks. An automatic calibration method based on the combinatorial optimization algorithm simulated annealing is applied. The performance of the hydrological model is analyzed as a function of the raingauge density. Secondly, the calibrated model is validated using interpolated precipitation from the same raingauge density used for the calibration as well as interpolated precipitation based on networks of reduced and increased raingauge density. Lastly, the effect of missing rainfall data is investigated by using a multiple linear regression approach for filling in the missing measurements. The model, calibrated with the complete set of observed data, is then run in the validation period using the above described precipitation field. The simulated hydrographs obtained in the above described three sets of experiments are analyzed through the comparisons of the computed Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient and several goodness-of-fit indexes. The results show that the model using different raingauge networks might need re-calibration of the model parameters, specifically model calibrated on relatively sparse precipitation information might perform well on dense precipitation information while model calibrated on dense precipitation information fails on sparse precipitation information. Also, the model calibrated with the complete set of observed precipitation and run with incomplete observed data associated with the data estimated using multiple linear regressions, at the locations treated as

  18. Rainfall intensity effects on removal of fecal indicator bacteria from solid dairy manure applied over grass-covered soil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blaustein, Ryan A., E-mail: [USDA-ARS Environmental Microbial and Food Safety Laboratory, Beltsville Agricultural Research Center, Beltsville, MD (United States); Department of Environmental Science and Technology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Hill, Robert L. [Department of Environmental Science and Technology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Micallef, Shirley A. [Department of Plant Science and Landscape Architecture, University of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Center for Food Safety and Security Systems, University of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Shelton, Daniel R.; Pachepsky, Yakov A. [USDA-ARS Environmental Microbial and Food Safety Laboratory, Beltsville Agricultural Research Center, Beltsville, MD (United States)


    The rainfall-induced release of pathogens and microbial indicators from land-applied manure and their subsequent removal with runoff and infiltration precedes the impairment of surface and groundwater resources. It has been assumed that rainfall intensity and changes in intensity during rainfall do not affect microbial removal when expressed as a function of rainfall depth. The objective of this work was to test this assumption by measuring the removal of Escherichia coli, enterococci, total coliforms, and chloride ion from dairy manure applied in soil boxes containing fescue, under 3, 6, and 9 cm h{sup −1} of rainfall. Runoff and leachate were collected at increasing time intervals during rainfall, and post-rainfall soil samples were taken at 0, 2, 5, and 10 cm depths. Three kinetic-based models were fitted to the data on manure-constituent removal with runoff. Rainfall intensity appeared to have positive effects on rainwater partitioning to runoff, and removal with this effluent type occurred in two stages. While rainfall intensity generally did not impact the parameters of runoff-removal models, it had significant, inverse effects on the numbers of bacteria remaining in soil after rainfall. As rainfall intensity and soil profile depth increased, the numbers of indicator bacteria tended to decrease. The cumulative removal of E. coli from manure exceeded that of enterococci, especially in the form of removal with infiltration. This work may be used to improve the parameterization of models for bacteria removal with runoff and to advance estimations of depths of bacteria removal with infiltration, both of which are critical to risk assessment of microbial fate and transport in the environment. - Highlights: • Release and removal of indicator bacteria from manure was evaluated in soil boxes. • Rainfall intensity did not impact runoff-removal kinetics in three tested models. • Rainfall intensity had positive/inverse effects on bacterial release to runoff

  19. Spatial moments of catchment rainfall: rainfall spatial organisation, basin morphology, and flood response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Zoccatelli


    Full Text Available This paper describes a set of spatial rainfall statistics (termed "spatial moments of catchment rainfall" quantifying the dependence existing between spatial rainfall organisation, basin morphology and runoff response. These statistics describe the spatial rainfall organisation in terms of concentration and dispersion statistics as a function of the distance measured along the flow routing coordinate. The introduction of these statistics permits derivation of a simple relationship for the quantification of catchment-scale storm velocity. The concept of the catchment-scale storm velocity takes into account the role of relative catchment orientation and morphology with respect to storm motion and kinematics. The paper illustrates the derivation of the statistics from an analytical framework recently proposed in literature and explains the conceptual meaning of the statistics by applying them to five extreme flash floods occurred in various European regions in the period 2002–2007. High resolution radar rainfall fields and a distributed hydrologic model are employed to examine how effective are these statistics in describing the degree of spatial rainfall organisation which is important for runoff modelling. This is obtained by quantifying the effects of neglecting the spatial rainfall variability on flood modelling, with a focus on runoff timing. The size of the study catchments ranges between 36 to 982 km2. The analysis reported here shows that the spatial moments of catchment rainfall can be effectively employed to isolate and describe the features of rainfall spatial organization which have significant impact on runoff simulation. These statistics provide useful information on what space-time scales rainfall has to be monitored, given certain catchment and flood characteristics, and what are the effects of space-time aggregation on flood response modeling.

  20. Evaluation of Maximum a Posteriori Estimation as Data Assimilation Method for Forecasting Infiltration-Inflow Affected Urban Runoff with Radar Rainfall Input

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wied Pedersen, Jonas; Lund, Nadia Schou Vorndran; Borup, Morten


    High quality on-line flow forecasts are useful for real-time operation of urban drainage systems and wastewater treatment plants. This requires computationally efficient models, which are continuously updated with observed data to provide good initial conditions for the forecasts. This paper...... period of time that precedes the forecast. The method is illustrated for an urban catchment, where flow forecasts of 0–4 h are generated by applying a lumped linear reservoir model with three cascading reservoirs. Radar rainfall observations are used as input to the model. The effects of different prior...

  1. A framework of integrated hydrological and hydrodynamic models using synthetic rainfall for flash flood hazard mapping of ungauged catchments in tropical zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Lohpaisankrit


    Full Text Available Flash flood hazard maps provide a scientific support to mitigate flash flood risk. The present study develops a practical framework with the help of integrated hydrological and hydrodynamic modelling in order to estimate the potential flash floods. We selected a small pilot catchment which has already suffered from flash floods in the past. This catchment is located in the Nan River basin, northern Thailand. Reliable meteorological and hydrometric data are missing in the catchment. Consequently, the entire upper basin of the main river was modelled with the help of the hydrological modelling system PANTA RHEI. In this basin, three monitoring stations are located along the main river. PANTA RHEI was calibrated and validated with the extreme flood events in June 2011 and July 2008, respectively. The results show a good agreement with the observed discharge data. In order to create potential flash flood scenarios, synthetic rainfall series were derived from temporal rainfall patterns based on the radar-rainfall observation and different rainfall depths from regional rainfall frequency analysis. The temporal rainfall patterns were characterized by catchment-averaged rainfall series selected from 13 rainstorms in 2008 and 2011 within the region. For regional rainfall frequency analysis, the well-known L-moments approach and related criteria were used to examine extremely climatic homogeneity of the region. According to the L-moments approach, Generalized Pareto distribution was recognized as the regional frequency distribution. The synthetic rainfall series were fed into the PANTA RHEI model. The simulated results from PANTA RHEI were provided to a 2-D hydrodynamic model (MEADFLOW, and various simulations were performed. Results from the integrated modelling framework are used in the ongoing study to regionalize and map the spatial distribution of flash flood hazards with four levels of flood severities. As an overall outcome, the presented framework

  2. Modelling runoff and soil water content with the DR2-2013© SAGA v1.1 model at catchment scale under Mediterranean conditions (NE Spain) (United States)

    López-Vicente, Manuel, , Dr.; Palazón, M. Sc. Leticia; Quijano, M. Sc. Laura; Gaspar, Leticia, , Dr.; Navas, Ana, , Dr.


    Hydrological and soil erosion models allow mapping and quantifying spatially distributed rates of runoff depth and soil redistribution for different land uses, management and tillage practices and climatic scenarios. The different temporal and spatial [very small (1000 km2)] scales of numerical simulations make model selection specific to each range of scales. Additionally, the spatial resolution of the inputs is in agreement with the size of the study area. In this study, we run the GIS-based water balance DR2-2013© SAGA v1.1 model (freely downloaded as executable file at, in the Vandunchil stream catchment (23 km2; Ebro river basin, NE Spain). All input maps are generated at 5 x 5 m of cell size (924,573 pixels per map) allowing sound parameterization. Simulation is run at monthly scale with average climatic values. This catchment is an open hydrological system and it has a long history of human occupation, agricultural practices and water management. Numerous manmade infrastructures or landscape linear elements (LLEs: paved and unpaved trails, rock mounds in non-cultivated areas, disperse and small settlements, shallow and long drainage ditches, stone walls, small rock dams, fences and vegetation strips) appear throughout the hillslopes and streams and modify the natural runoff pathways and thus the hydrological and sediment connectivity. Rain-fed cereal fields occupy one third of the catchment area, 1% corresponds to sealed soils, and the remaining area is covered with Mediterranean forest, scrubland, pine afforestation and meadow. The parent material corresponds to Miocene sandstones and lutites and Holocene colluvial and alluvial deposits. The climate is continental Mediterranean with two humid periods, one in spring and a second in autumn that summarizes 63% of the total annual precipitation. We created a synthetic weather station (WS) from the Caseda and Uncastillo WS. The effective rainfall that reaches the soils

  3. First application of the WEPP model to predict runoff and erosion risk in fire-affected volcanic areas in Europe (United States)

    Neris, Jonay; Robichaud, Peter R.; Elliot, William J.; Doerr, Stefan H.; Notario del Pino, Jesús S.; Lado, Marcos


    An estimated that 15% of the world's population lives in volcanic areas. Recent catastrophic erosion events following wildfires in volcanic terrain have highlighted the geomorphological instability of this soil type under disturbed conditions and steep slopes. Predicting the hydrological and erosional response of this soils in the post-fire period is the first step to design and develop adequate actions to minimize risks in the post-fire period. In this work we apply, for the first time, the Water Erosion Prediction Project model for predicting erosion and runoff events in fire-affected volcanic soils in Europe. Two areas affected by wildfires in 2015 were selected in Tenerife (Spain) representative of different fire behaviour (downhill surface fire with long residence time vs uphill crown fire with short residence time), severity (moderate soil burn severity vs light soil burn severity) and climatic conditions (average annual precipitation of 750 and 210 mm respectively). The actual erosion processes were monitored in the field using silt fences. Rainfall and rill simulations were conducted to determine hydrologic, interrill and rill erosion parameters. The soils were sampled and key properties used as model input, evaluated. During the first 18 months after the fire 7 storms produced runoff and erosion in the selected areas. Sediment delivery reached 5.4 and 2.5 Mg ha-1 respectively in the first rainfall event monitored after the fire, figures comparable to those reported for fire-affected areas of the western USA with similar climatic conditions but lower than those showed by wetter environments. The validation of the WEPP model using field data showed reasonable estimates of hillslope sediment delivery in the post-fire period and, therefore, it is suggested that this model can support land managers in volcanic areas in Europe in predicting post-fire hydrological and erosional risks and designing suitable mitigation treatments.

  4. Impact of the Rainfall Duration and Temporal Rainfall Distribution Defined Using the Huff Curves on the Hydraulic Flood Modelling Results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nejc Bezak


    Full Text Available In the case of ungauged catchments, different procedures can be used to derive the design hydrograph and design peak discharge, which are crucial input data for the design of different hydrotechnical engineering structures, or the production of flood hazard maps. One of the possible approaches involves using a hydrological model where one can calculate the design hydrograph through the design of a rainfall event. This study investigates the impact of the design rainfall on the combined one-dimensional/two-dimensional (1D/2D hydraulic modelling results. The Glinščica Stream catchment located in Slovenia (central Europe is used as a case study. Ten different design rainfall events were compared for 10 and 100-year return periods, where we used Huff curves for the design rainfall event definition. The results indicate that the selection of the design rainfall event should be regarded as an important step, since the hydraulic modelling results for different scenarios differ significantly. In the presented experimental case study, the maximum flooded area extent was twice as large as the minimum one, and the maximum water velocity over flooded areas was more than 10 times larger than the minimum one. This can lead to the production of very different flood hazard maps, and consequently planning very different flood protection schemes.

  5. Fitting rainfall interception models to forest ecosystems of Mexico (United States)

    Návar, José


    Models that accurately predict forest interception are essential both for water balance studies and for assessing watershed responses to changes in land use and the long-term climate variability. This paper compares the performance of four rainfall interception models-the sparse Gash (1995), Rutter et al. (1975), Liu (1997) and two new models (NvMxa and NvMxb)-using data from four spatially extensive, structurally diverse forest ecosystems in Mexico. Ninety-eight case studies measuring interception in tropical dry (25), arid/semi-arid (29), temperate (26), and tropical montane cloud forests (18) were compiled and analyzed. Coefficients derived from raw data or published statistical relationships were used as model input to evaluate multi-storm forest interception at the case study scale. On average empirical data showed that, tropical montane cloud, temperate, arid/semi-arid and tropical dry forests intercepted 14%, 18%, 22% and 26% of total precipitation, respectively. The models performed well in predicting interception, with mean deviations between measured and modeled interception as a function of total precipitation (ME) generally 0.66. Model fitting precision was dependent on the forest ecosystem. Arid/semi-arid forests exhibited the smallest, while tropical montane cloud forest displayed the largest ME deviations. Improved agreement between measured and modeled data requires modification of in-storm evaporation rate in the Liu; the canopy storage in the sparse Gash model; and the throughfall coefficient in the Rutter and the NvMx models. This research concludes on recommending the wide application of rainfall interception models with some caution as they provide mixed results. The extensive forest interception data source, the fitting and testing of four models, the introduction of a new model, and the availability of coefficient values for all four forest ecosystems are an important source of information and a benchmark for future investigations in this

  6. Evaluation of Synthetic Outlet Runoff Assessment Models 1ARASH ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Michael Horsfall

    locates in Mazandaran province of Iran. The runoff hydrographs computed by .... the time to UH peak. The SCS method suggests below relation: ... in the US. More importantly, he provided relationships for estimating the UH parameters from watershed characteristics. The program includes an implementation of the Snyder ...

  7. Including local rainfall dynamics and uncertain boundary conditions into a 2-D regional-local flood modelling cascade (United States)

    Bermúdez, María; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Bates, Paul D.; Coxon, Gemma; Freer, Jim E.; Cea, Luis; Puertas, Jerónimo


    Flood inundation models require appropriate boundary conditions to be specified at the limits of the domain, which commonly consist of upstream flow rate and downstream water level. These data are usually acquired from gauging stations on the river network where measured water levels are converted to discharge via a rating curve. Derived streamflow estimates are therefore subject to uncertainties in this rating curve, including extrapolating beyond the maximum observed ratings magnitude. In addition, the limited number of gauges in reach-scale studies often requires flow to be routed from the nearest upstream gauge to the boundary of the model domain. This introduces additional uncertainty, derived not only from the flow routing method used, but also from the additional lateral rainfall-runoff contributions downstream of the gauging point. Although generally assumed to have a minor impact on discharge in fluvial flood modeling, this local hydrological input may become important in a sparse gauge network or in events with significant local rainfall. In this study, a method to incorporate rating curve uncertainty and the local rainfall-runoff dynamics into the predictions of a reach-scale flood inundation model is proposed. Discharge uncertainty bounds are generated by applying a non-parametric local weighted regression approach to stage-discharge measurements for two gauging stations, while measured rainfall downstream from these locations is cascaded into a hydrological model to quantify additional inflows along the main channel. A regional simplified-physics hydraulic model is then applied to combine these inputs and generate an ensemble of discharge and water elevation time series at the boundaries of a local-scale high complexity hydraulic model. Finally, the effect of these rainfall dynamics and uncertain boundary conditions are evaluated on the local-scale model. Improvements in model performance when incorporating these processes are quantified using observed

  8. Application of the Kineros model for predicting the effect of land use on the surface run-off Case study in Brantas sub-watershed, Klojen District, Malang City, East Java Province of Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bisri Mohammad


    Full Text Available This study intended to illustrate the distribution of surface run-off. The methodology was by using Kineros model (kinetic run-off and erosion model. This model is a part of AGWA program which is as the development of ESRI ArcView SIG software that is as a tool for analysing hydrological phenomena in research about watershed simulating the process of infiltration, run-off depth, and erosion in a watershed of small scale such as ≤100 km2. The procedures are as follow: to analyse the run-off depth in Brantas sub-watershed, Klojen District by using Kineros model based on the land use change due to the rainfall simulation with the return period of 2 years, 5 years, 10 years, and 25 years. Results show that the difference of land use affect the surface run-off or there is the correlation between land use and surface run-off depth. The maximum surface run-off depth in the year 2000 was 134.26 mm; in 2005 it was 139.36 mm; and in 2010 it was 142.76 mm. There was no significant difference between Kineros model and observation in field, the relative error was only 9.09%.

  9. Generation of Natural Runoff Monthly Series at Ungauged Sites Using a Regional Regressive Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dario Pumo


    Full Text Available Many hydrologic applications require reliable estimates of runoff in river basins to face the widespread lack of data, both in time and in space. A regional method for the reconstruction of monthly runoff series is here developed and applied to Sicily (Italy. A simple modeling structure is adopted, consisting of a regression-based rainfall–runoff model with four model parameters, calibrated through a two-step procedure. Monthly runoff estimates are based on precipitation, temperature, and exploiting the autocorrelation with runoff at the previous month. Model parameters are assessed by specific regional equations as a function of easily measurable physical and climate basin descriptors. The first calibration step is aimed at the identification of a set of parameters optimizing model performances at the level of single basin. Such “optimal” sets are used at the second step, part of a regional regression analysis, to establish the regional equations for model parameters assessment as a function of basin attributes. All the gauged watersheds across the region have been analyzed, selecting 53 basins for model calibration and using the other six basins exclusively for validation. Performances, quantitatively evaluated by different statistical indexes, demonstrate relevant model ability in reproducing the observed hydrological time-series at both the monthly and coarser time resolutions. The methodology, which is easily transferable to other arid and semi-arid areas, provides a reliable tool for filling/reconstructing runoff time series at any gauged or ungauged basin of a region.

  10. How uncertain is model-based prediction of copper loads in stormwater runoff?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindblom, Erik Ulfson; Ahlman, S.; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen


    (runoff volumes and pollutant masses). We use the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology and generate posterior parameter distributions that result in model outputs encompassing a significant number of the highly variable measurements. Given the applied pollution accumulation...

  11. Application of Stable Isotope in Hydrologic Analysis of a Rainfall-Runoff Event in the Xin'an Jiang River Basin (United States)

    Chen, X.; Yi, P.; Chen, L.; Aldahan, A.


    Stable isotopes abundance of hydrogen (δ2H) and oxygen (δ18O) are very sensitive to environmental changes and can help understand the complex recharges between surface water and groundwater. However, details of variability in the different components of water supply to watersheds are generally missing. We present here evaluation of isotopic changes in small watershed (0.19 km2) in the upstream of Xin'an River, Anhui province, China based on daily sampling of rainfall events and runoff (river and soil water). The δ2H and δ18O of different water sources in the watershed were aimed in order explore interactions between different parts of the hydrological processes. The collected water samples were analyzed for δ2H and δ18O using Picarro L-2120i analyzer at a precision of 1.0 and 0.1 ‰, respectively. The results indicated higher abundance of 2H and 18O in precipitation than those in river. Additionally, the content of the heavy isotopes also decreases in soil water with depth, while surface soil water was enriched because of evaporation. The response of the watershed to the changes in δ2H and δ18O varied, where water in upstream gained more heavy isotopes rapidly, while in the downstream part the enrichment happened after a few days. This feature suggests a different but still strong hydraulic connection between surface water and groundwater in the small watershed tested here. Accordingly, variability of δ2H and δ18O should be carefully evaluated on a local scale before application in transport system of large rivers and exchange with groundwater.

  12. Probabilistic online runoff forecasting for urban catchments using inputs from rain gauges as well as statically and dynamically adjusted weather radar

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Löwe, Roland; Thorndahl, Søren; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen


    We investigate the application of rainfall observations and forecasts from rain gauges and weather radar as input to operational urban runoff forecasting models. We apply lumped rainfall runoff models implemented in a stochastic grey-box modelling framework. Different model structures...... are considered that account for the spatial distribution of rainfall in different degrees of detail. Considering two urban example catchments, we show that statically adjusted radar rainfall input improves the quality of probabilistic runoff forecasts as compared to input based on rain gauge observations......, although the characteristics of these radar measurements are rather different from those on the ground. Data driven runoff forecasting models can to some extent adapt to bias of the rainfall input by model parameter calibration and state-updating. More detailed structures in these models provide improved...

  13. A simple analytical infiltration model for short-duration rainfall (United States)

    Wang, Kaiwen; Yang, Xiaohua; Liu, Xiaomang; Liu, Changming


    Many infiltration models have been proposed to simulate infiltration process. Different initial soil conditions and non-uniform initial water content can lead to infiltration simulation errors, especially for short-duration rainfall (SHR). Few infiltration models are specifically derived to eliminate the errors caused by the complex initial soil conditions. We present a simple analytical infiltration model for SHR infiltration simulation, i.e., Short-duration Infiltration Process model (SHIP model). The infiltration simulated by 5 models (i.e., SHIP (high) model, SHIP (middle) model, SHIP (low) model, Philip model and Parlange model) were compared based on numerical experiments and soil column experiments. In numerical experiments, SHIP (middle) and Parlange models had robust solutions for SHR infiltration simulation of 12 typical soils under different initial soil conditions. The absolute values of percent bias were less than 12% and the values of Nash and Sutcliffe efficiency were greater than 0.83. Additionally, in soil column experiments, infiltration rate fluctuated in a range because of non-uniform initial water content. SHIP (high) and SHIP (low) models can simulate an infiltration range, which successfully covered the fluctuation range of the observed infiltration rate. According to the robustness of solutions and the coverage of fluctuation range of infiltration rate, SHIP model can be integrated into hydrologic models to simulate SHR infiltration process and benefit the flood forecast.

  14. Hybrid Wavelet-Postfix-GP Model for Rainfall Prediction of Anand Region of India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vipul K. Dabhi


    Full Text Available An accurate prediction of rainfall is crucial for national economy and management of water resources. The variability of rainfall in both time and space makes the rainfall prediction a challenging task. The present work investigates the applicability of a hybrid wavelet-postfix-GP model for daily rainfall prediction of Anand region using meteorological variables. The wavelet analysis is used as a data preprocessing technique to remove the stochastic (noise component from the original time series of each meteorological variable. The Postfix-GP, a GP variant, and ANN are then employed to develop models for rainfall using newly generated subseries of meteorological variables. The developed models are then used for rainfall prediction. The out-of-sample prediction performance of Postfix-GP and ANN models is compared using statistical measures. The results are comparable and suggest that Postfix-GP could be explored as an alternative tool for rainfall prediction.

  15. Volumetric runoff coefficients for experimental rural catchments in the Iberian Peninsula (United States)

    Taguas, Encarnación V.; Molina, Cecilio; Nadal-Romero, Estela; Ayuso, José L.; Casalí, Javier; Cid, Patricio; Dafonte, Jorge; Duarte, Antonio C.; Farguell, Joaquim; Giménez, Rafael; Giráldez, Juan V.; Gómez, Helena; Gómez, Jose A.; González-Hidalgo, J. Carlos; Keizer, J. Jacob; Lucía, Ana; Mateos, Luciano; Rodríguez-Blanco, M. Luz; Schnabel, Sussane; Serrano-Muela, M. Pilar


    Analysis of runoff and peaks therein is essential for designing hydraulic infrastructures and for assessing the hydrological implications of likely scenarios of climate and/or land-use change. Different methods are available to calculate runoff coefficients. For instance, the runoff coefficient of a catchment can be described either as the ratio of total depth of runoff to total depth of rainfall or as the ratio of peak flow to rainfall intensity for the time of concentration (Dhakal et al. 2012). If the first definition is considered, runoff coefficients represent the global effect of different features and states of catchments and its determination requires a suitable analysis according to the objectives pursued (Chow et al., 1988). In this work, rainfall-runoff data and physical attributes from small rural catchments located in the Iberian Peninsula (Portugal and Spain) were examined in order to compare the representative values of runoff coefficients using three different approaches: i) statistical analysis of rainfall-runoff data and their quantiles (Dhakal et al., 2012); ii) probabilistic runoff coefficients from the rank-ordered pairs of observed rainfall-runoff data and their relationships with rainfall depths (Schaake et al., 1967); iii) finally, a multiple linear model based on geomorphological attributes. These catchments exhibit great variety with respect to their natural settings, such as climate, topography and lithology. We present a preliminary analysis of the rainfall-runoff relationships as well as their variability in a complex context such as the Iberian Peninsula where contrasted environmental systems coexist. We also discuss reference parameters representing runoff coefficients commonly included into hydrological models. This study is conceived as the first step to explore further working protocols and modeling gaps in a very susceptible area to the climate change such as the Iberian Peninsula's, where the analysis of runoff coefficients is

  16. Scaling properties of rainfall-runoff generation processes and nutrient flushing mechanisms in the Oregon Cascade Mountain (United States)

    Segura, C.; Nickolas, L. B.; Leshchinsky, B. A.


    Even though it is widely recognized that water quality and availability are crucial to society and wildlife sustainability, we are still not able to predict how much water is moved through a given catchment after a storm event nor what nutrients, solutes, and contaminates are mobilized. We will present preliminary results of a study incorporating of hydrometric information, water stable isotopes (δ18O), and concentrations of total nitrogen (TN), ammonia (NH3), and nitrate (NO3) within 4 sites in a nested framework at the HJ Andrews Experimental Forest (HJA), OR. Preliminary analysis of 2 storms (54mm and 145mm) indicate highly variable responses across space along with a positive relation between transit time of event water and storm magnitude in all catchments. In addition there appears to be a moisture threshold after which transit time scales with drainage area across the landscape likely related to higher degree of connectivity. We also found a strong correlation between transit times computed based on temporal variability of δ18O and electrical connectivity (EC). This lead to the analysis of over 50 storm across 10 catchments in the HJA during the last 3 years. In-stream NO3- during storm response are highest within the smaller catchments (1-5 km2) and tend to remain elevated throughout the response period. The larger catchments (15-64 km2) demonstrate smaller increases in NO3-, the response time lags behind that of the smaller catchments, and the concentration returns rapidly to baseflow conditions rather than remaining elevated. In contrast, in-stream NH3 show a higher degree of similarity between sites in terms of magnitude and timing of increases in concentration over the duration of the response period. Ultimately we found that fractions of inorganic nitrogen correlate with transit time and drainage area, opening the possibility of a catchment wide model of nutrient export prediction.

  17. Meltwater flux and runoff modeling in the abalation area of jakobshavn Isbrae, West Greenland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mernild, Sebastian Haugard [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Chylek, Petr [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Liston, Glen [COLORADO STATE UNIV.; Steffen, Konrad [UNIV OF COLORADO


    The temporal variability in surface snow and glacier melt flux and runoff were investigated for the ablation area of lakobshavn Isbrae, West Greenland. High-resolution meteorological observations both on and outside the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) were used as model input. Realistic descriptions of snow accumulation, snow and glacier-ice melt, and runoff are essential to understand trends in ice sheet surface properties and processes. SnowModel, a physically based, spatially distributed meteorological and snow-evolution modeling system was used to simulate the temporal variability of lakobshavn Isbrre accumulation and ablation processes for 2000/01-2006/07. Winter snow-depth observations and MODIS satellite-derived summer melt observations were used for model validation of accumulation and ablation. Simulations agreed well with observed values. Simulated annual surface melt varied from as low as 3.83 x 10{sup 9} m{sup 3} (2001/02) to as high as 8.64 x 10{sup 9} m{sup 3} (2004/05). Modeled surface melt occurred at elevations reaching 1,870 m a.s.l. for 2004/05, while the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) fluctuated from 990 to 1,210 m a.s.l. during the simulation period. The SnowModel meltwater retention and refreezing routines considerably reduce the amount of meltwater available as ice sheet runoff; without these routines the lakobshavn surface runoff would be overestimated by an average of 80%. From September/October through May/June no runoff events were simulated. The modeled interannual runoff variability varied from 1.81 x 10{sup 9} m{sup 3} (2001/02) to 5.21 x 10{sup 9} m{sup 3} (2004/05), yielding a cumulative runoff at the Jakobshavn glacier terminus of {approx}2.25 m w.eq. to {approx}4.5 m w.eq., respectively. The average modeled lakobshavn runoff of {approx}3.4 km{sup 3} y{sup -1} was merged with previous estimates of Jakobshavn ice discharge to quantify the freshwater flux to Illulissat Icefiord. For both runoff and ice discharge the average trends are

  18. Using artificial neural network approach for modelling rainfall–runoff ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 122; Issue 2. Using artificial neural network approach for ... In Taiwan, owing to the nonuniform temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall and high mountains all over the country, hydrologic systems are very complex. Therefore, preventing and controlling flood ...

  19. Effects of low-impact-development (LID) practices on streamflow, runoff quantity, and runoff quality in the Ipswich River Basin, Massachusetts-A Summary of field and modeling studies (United States)

    Zimmerman, Marc J.; Waldron, Marcus C.; Barbaro, Jeffrey R.; Sorenson, Jason R.


    Low-impact-development (LID) approaches are intended to create, retain, or restore natural hydrologic and water-quality conditions that may be affected by human alterations. Wide-scale implementation of LID techniques may offer the possibility of improving conditions in river basins, such as the Ipswich River Basin in Massachusetts, that have run dry during the summer because of groundwater withdrawals and drought. From 2005 to 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey, in a cooperative funding agreement with the Massachusetts Department of Conservation and Recreation, monitored small-scale installations of LID enhancements designed to diminish the effects of storm runoff on the quantity and quality of surface water and groundwater. Funding for the studies also was contributed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Targeted Watersheds Grant Program through a financial assistance agreement with Massachusetts Department of Conservation and Recreation. The monitoring studies examined the effects of * replacing an impervious parking-lot surface with a porous surface on groundwater quality, * installing rain gardens and porous pavement in a neighborhood of 3 acres on the quantity and quality of stormwater runoff, and * installing a 3,000-ft2 (square-foot) green roof on the quantity and quality of rainfall-generated roof runoff. In addition to these small-scale installations, the U.S. Geological Survey's Ipswich River Basin model was used to simulate the basin-wide effects on streamflow of several changes: broad-scale implementation of LID techniques, reduced water-supply withdrawals, and water-conservation measures. Water-supply and conservation scenarios for application in model simulations were developed with the assistance of two technical advisory committees that included representatives of State agencies responsible for water resources, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the U.S. Geological Survey, water suppliers, and non-governmental organizations. From June

  20. Improving runoff estimates from regional climate models: a performance analysis in Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. González-Zeas


    Full Text Available An important step to assess water availability is to have monthly time series representative of the current situation. In this context, a simple methodology is presented for application in large-scale studies in regions where a properly calibrated hydrologic model is not available, using the output variables simulated by regional climate models (RCMs of the European project PRUDENCE under current climate conditions (period 1961–1990. The methodology compares different interpolation methods and alternatives to generate annual times series that minimise the bias with respect to observed values. The objective is to identify the best alternative to obtain bias-corrected, monthly runoff time series from the output of RCM simulations. This study uses information from 338 basins in Spain that cover the entire mainland territory and whose observed values of natural runoff have been estimated by the distributed hydrological model SIMPA. Four interpolation methods for downscaling runoff to the basin scale from 10 RCMs are compared with emphasis on the ability of each method to reproduce the observed behaviour of this variable. The alternatives consider the use of the direct runoff of the RCMs and the mean annual runoff calculated using five functional forms of the aridity index, defined as the ratio between potential evapotranspiration and precipitation. In addition, the comparison with respect to the global runoff reference of the UNH/GRDC dataset is evaluated, as a contrast of the "best estimator" of current runoff on a large scale. Results show that the bias is minimised using the direct original interpolation method and the best alternative for bias correction of the monthly direct runoff time series of RCMs is the UNH/GRDC dataset, although the formula proposed by Schreiber (1904 also gives good results.

  1. Glacier surface mass balance and freshwater runoff modeling for the entire Andes Cordillera (United States)

    Mernild, Sebastian H.; Liston, Glen E.; Yde, Jacob C.


    Glacier surface mass balance (SMB) observations for the Andes Cordillera are limited and, therefore, estimates of the SMB contribution from South America to sea-level rise are highly uncertain. Here, we simulate meteorological, snow, glacier surface, and hydrological runoff conditions and trends for the Andes Cordillera (1979/80-2013/14), covering the tropical latitudes in the north down to the sub-polar latitudes in the far south, including the Northern Patagonia Ice Field (NPI) and Southern Patagonia Ice Field (SPI). SnowModel - a fully integrated energy balance, blowing-snow distribution, multi-layer snowpack, and runoff routing model - was used to simulate glacier SMBs for the Andes Cordillera. The Randolph Glacier Inventory and NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications products, downscaled in SnowModel, allowed us to conduct relatively high-resolution simulations. The simulated glacier SMBs were verified against independent directly-observed and satellite gravimetry and altimetry-derived SMB, indicating a good statistical agreement. For glaciers in the Andes Cordillera, the 35-year mean annual SMB was found to be -1.13 m water equivalent. For both NPI and SPI, the mean SMB was positive (where calving is the likely reason for explaining why geodetic estimates are negative). Further, the spatio-temporal freshwater river runoff patterns from individual basins, including their runoff magnitude and change, were simulated. For the Andes Cordillera rivers draining to the Pacific Ocean, 86% of the simulated runoff originated from rain, 12% from snowmelt, and 2% from ice melt, whereas, for example, for Chile, the water-source distribution was 69, 24, and 7%, respectively. Along the Andes Cordillera, the 35-year mean basin outlet-specific runoff (L s-1 km-2) showed a characteristic regional hourglass shape pattern with highest runoff in both Colombia and Ecuador and in Patagonia, and lowest runoff in the Atacama Desert area.

  2. Exploring the potential of multivariate depth-damage and rainfall-damage models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van Ootegem, Luc; van Herck, K.; Creten, T.


    In Europe, floods are among the natural catastrophes that cause the largest economic damage. This article explores the potential of two distinct types of multivariate flood damage models: ‘depth-damage’ models and ‘rainfall-damage’ models. We use survey data of 346 Flemish households that were...... victim of pluvial floods complemented with rainfall data from both rain gauges and weather radars. In the econometrical analysis, a Tobit estimation technique is used to deal with the issue of zero damage observations. The results show that in the ‘depth-damage’ models flood depth has a significant...... impact on the damage. In the ‘rainfall-damage’ models there is a significant impact of rainfall accumulation on the damage when using the gauge rainfall data as predictor, but not when using the radar rainfall data. Finally, non-hazard indicators are found to be important for explaining pluvial flood...

  3. Modeling of soil water infiltration with rainfall simulator in different agricultural systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thais E. M. dos Santos


    Full Text Available ABSTRACT This study aimed to compare models for predicting soil water infiltration rate and erosive rates using a rainfall simulator in different systems of common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L. cultivation. The evaluated mathematical models were: Kostiakov, Kostiakov-Lewis, Green-Ampt and Horton. Infiltration tests were carried out considering six treatments: bean cultivated on contour with rock barriers spaced at 0.5 m between crop rows (BC1; bean cultivated on contour with rock barriers spaced at 1.0 m between crop rows (BC2; bean cultivated downslope (BDS; bean cultivated on contour with mulch (BCM; bare soil (BS and soil under natural cover (NC. Four replicates were considered, totaling 24 field tests. Kostiakov-Lewis's equation showed the lowest values of standard error. Soil water infiltration rate was equal to 53.3 mm h-1 in the natural vegetation treatment and to 9.49 mm h-1 in the downslope treatment. Surface roughness and the time of beginning of surface runoff were significantly higher for the conditions with mulch cover.

  4. Impacts of Changing Climate and Environment on the Stormwater Runoff in the Kissimmee River Basin, Florida (United States)

    Islam, M. S.; Abdul-Aziz, O. I.


    Changes in climate and land use/cover can cause great impacts on the hydrologic processes, especially on stormwater runoff generation. Considering the Kissimmee River Basin of Florida as an example of complex inland urban-natural basins, we quantified reference sensitivities of stormwater runoff to plausible scenarios of climatic and land use/cover changes by developing a large-scale, dynamic rainfall runoff model with EPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM 5.1). Reference changes in basin rainfall, evapotranspiration, imperviousness, roughness and land use types resulted in substantial changes of total stormwater budget. Potential storm runoff in the coupled urban-natural basin exhibited high and notably different seasonal sensitivities to rainfall. The total basin runoff was highly sensitive to the basin imperviousness and roughness, while showing moderate sensitivities to the water storage capacity of pervious areas and soil hydraulic conductivity. The changes in runoff under simultaneous hydro-climatic or climate-land use perturbations were notably different than the summations of their individual contributions. The developed model was used to estimate the potential stormwater budget of the Kissimmee River Basin in 2050s using downscaled GCM-RCM climate projections and anticipated land use/cover scenarios. A significant change in basin runoff was noted by 2050s due to changing rainfall regimes and continuing urbanization. Our findings can be useful in managing stormwater runoff in the Kissimmee and similar complex urban-natural basins around the world.

  5. Spatial-temporal rainfall fields: modelling and statistical aspects


    H. S. Wheater; Isham, V. S.; Cox, D. R.; Chandler, R. E.; A. Kakou; Northrop, P. J.; L. Oh; Onof, C.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.


    The HYREX experiment has provided a data set unique in the UK, with a dense network of raingauges available for studying the rainfall at a fine local scale and a network of radar stations allowing detailed examination of the spatial and temporal structure of rainfall at larger scales. In this paper, the properties and characteristics of the rainfall process, as measured by the HYREX recording network of rainguages and radars, are studied from a statistical perspective. The results of these an...

  6. Spatial-temporal rainfall fields: modelling and statistical aspects


    H. S. Wheater; Isham, V. S.; Cox, D. R.; Chandler, R. E.; A. Kakou; Northrop, P. J.; L. Oh; Onof, C.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.


    International audience; The HYREX experiment has provided a data set unique in the UK, with a dense network of raingauges available for studying the rainfall at a fine local scale and a network of radar stations allowing detailed examination of the spatial and temporal structure of rainfall at larger scales. In this paper, the properties and characteristics of the rainfall process, as measured by the HYREX recording network of rainguages and radars, are studied from a statistical perspective....

  7. Watershed Runoff Model Uncertainty as affected by Spatial Climate Data Resolution for McKenzie River, OR (United States)

    Epps, T. H.; Chang, H.; Jung, I.; Nolin, A. W.; Roth, T.


    Climate change and the potential impacts that it will have on water resources must be assessed through watershed modeling and forecasting to guide effective management strategies that will accommodate future uncertainty in climate patterns. Watershed modeling is a valuable method to assess potential changes in the timing and quantity of streamflow and the impacts that shifts in streamflow dynamics may have on the availability of local water resources. This has been observed for the Pacific Northwest's Willamette River Basin (WRB) in previous studies that display substantial potential for local changes in streamflow due to a changing climate. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a semi-distributed physically-based hydrologic model, was used to simulate runoff in sub-basins of the Willamette River that originate in the Cascades region of Oregon. These sub-basins have displayed high sensitivity to parameters associated with snowpack accumulation and evolution processes due to larger annual snowfall amounts than in lower elevations. Snowpack acts as a temporal storage for hydrologic inputs in these sub-basins and snowpack evolution processes, subject to ambient climate conditions, influence the timing of streamflows and the seasonal resiliency of water resources in these areas. Accuracy in modeling these snowpack processes is important in forecasting changes in streamflow timing and magnitude that will occur under climate change scenarios. PRMS models snowpack evolution using daily measurements of precipitation, solar radiation, and the maximum and minimum temperatures. Measured precipitation is apportioned between rainfall and snowfall based on measured daily temperature ranges and spatial parameters linked to topography and land cover. The McKenzie River (MCK) sub-basin of the WRB has its headwaters in the high Cascades region and is influenced by annual snowpack accumulation and snowmelt processes. This study will assess the uncertainty in PRMS modeling

  8. Estimating soil resistance to erosion on plot scale - Do we really need artificial rainfall simulations? (United States)

    Schindewolf, Marcus; Kaiser, Andreas; Schultze, Nico; Kunth, Franziska; Käpermann, Philipp; Schmidt, Jürgen


    Rainfall simulators are an important tool for research of initial detachment and infiltration. Recent publications highlighted the great importance of simulator calibration in soil erosion studies. However, falling velocity and size distribution of raindrops assumably play a significant role only on the first meters of the slope. With increasing slope length runoff volume increases while effects of falling droplets become negligible. In this regard the plot length of rainfall simulators is determining the processes we measure. For reasons of efficiency and repeatability such experiments are mostly conducted on small plots, which imply strict limitations in process simulation. In order to simulate the more important runoff driven erosion processes small plots need an additional sediment loaded runoff surplus, which allows virtually enlarged slope lengths. The presented study shows examples of runoff feeding devices for parameter identification of the process based soil erosion and deposition model EROSION 3D for certain rainfall simulators and varying slope lengths (0.65-3 m). Resulting soil erosion resistance values are reasonable and comparable to previous investigations using a large scale rainfall simulator. Additionally the devices were tested without rainfall yielding to similar erosion resistance values. That leads to the following conclusion: If we want to simulate important erosion processes with artificial rainfall simulations, additional runoff is needed for virtual plot length enlargement. The effort we made referring to calibration of rainfall simulators we also should make in extending the devices by runoff reflux approaches in order to model slope size erosion processes.

  9. Runoff response for a peri-urban watershed in the Atlantic Forest Biome, southern Brazil, using the Kineros2 model (United States)

    Beling, F. A.; Dias de Paiva, J.; Cauduro Dias de Paiva, E. M.; Heatwole, C.


    Simulating the hydrologic response of a watershed for different scenarios is an important tool for assessing the rational use of the land and natural resources, especially in environments where urbanization is not ever an organized procedure. This study used the Kineros2 event oriented hydrological model to simulate the runoff response of a 4.9 km2 peri-urban basin located in the Atlantic Forest biome in Southern Brazil, with 47% of the area being impermeable. The goal of the simulations was to estimate the characteristic parameters of the soils and land cover of the watershed to then enable the prediction of basin response for different land uses. To acheive this objective, the responses of ten measured rainfall-runoff events were used to calibrate five parameters of the model. The PEST (Model-Independent Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis) package was used for automatic calibration of the model parameters. The quality of results is shown in Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index values varying from 0.64 up to 0.98, with an average value of 0.88. The average absolute error in the simulated peak flow was 4.5% and 20.7% in the simulated runoff volume. A cross-validation using the same events used in the calibration and using average values of the calibrated parameters. gave Nash-Sutcliffe index values varying from 0.26 up to 0.92, with an average value of 0.73. The average absolute error in the simulated peak flow and runoff volume were 22.7% and 25.6%, respectively. We used two validated events to simulate distinct scenarios, being representative of a wet and of dry antecedent moisture conditions. For a scenario of a totally forested land cover, the simulated peak flow and runoff volume for a dry condition changed -53% and -46% respectively, and for a wet condition, -63% and -41% respectively, relatively to the present land use. For a complete pasture land use, the simulated peak flow and runoff volume for a dry condition changed -31% and -27% respectively and

  10. Ungauged runoff simulation in Upper Manyame Catchment, Zimbabwe: Application of the HEC-HMS model (United States)

    Gumindoga, Webster; Rwasoka, Donald T.; Nhapi, Innocent; Dube, Timothy


    The Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS) model was applied to simulate runoff in the ten gauged and ungauged Upper Manyame subcatchments in Zimbabwe. Remote sensing and Geographic Information System techniques were used to determine the geometric and hydrologic parameters required for estimating model parameters. The Snyder Unit Hydrograph method was used for ungauged subcatchment simulations based on parameter transfer from gauged subcatchments. The Marimba and Mukuvisi subcatchments were considered as the gauged subcatchments based on data completeness for the simulation period (2004-2010). Before extrapolating the calibrated model setup to eight ungauged subcatchments, the feasibility of model parameter transferability was tested, using the proxy - catchment approach and evaluated using the Nash Sutcliffe (NSE) and Relative Volume Error (RVE) criterion. Results showed that the model successfully predicted gauged catchment runoff and peakflows for the calibration (Marimba NSE = 68%, RVE = 5.8%; Mukuvisi NSE = 64%, RVE = -8.9%) and validation (Marimba NSE = 61%, RVE = 8.1%; Mukuvisi NSE = 57%, RVE = 9.9%) periods. The study demonstrates the suitability of HEC-HMS for continuous runoff simulation in a complex watershed with numerous subcatchments and channel reaches. The ungauged subcatchments contribute to 51% of Upper Manyame Catchment's runoff. Ruwa and Lake Chivero subcatchments had the highest ungauged subcatchment contribution to Upper Manyame Catchment runoff (19% and 15% respectively). This work will have a significant contribution for the future development of water resources programs in Upper Manyame Catchment in particular and in other data-scarce catchments.

  11. Integrated Landsat Image Analysis and Hydrologic Modeling to Detect Impacts of 25-Year Land-Cover Change on Surface Runoff in a Philippine Watershed

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    Enrico Paringit


    Full Text Available Landsat MSS and ETM+ images were analyzed to detect 25-year land-cover change (1976–2001 in the critical Taguibo Watershed in Mindanao Island, Southern Philippines. This watershed has experienced historical modifications of its land-cover due to the presence of logging industries in the 1950s, and continuous deforestation due to illegal logging and slash-and-burn agriculture in the present time. To estimate the impacts of land-cover change on watershed runoff, land-cover information derived from the Landsat images was utilized to parameterize a GIS-based hydrologic model. The model was then calibrated with field-measured discharge data and used to simulate the responses of the watershed in its year 2001 and year 1976 land-cover conditions. The availability of land-cover information on the most recent state of the watershed from the Landsat ETM+ image made it possible to locate areas for rehabilitation such as barren and logged-over areas. We then created a “rehabilitated” land-cover condition map of the watershed (re-forestation of logged-over areas and agro-forestation of barren areas and used it to parameterize the model and predict the runoff responses of the watershed. Model results showed that changes in land-cover from 1976 to 2001 were directly related to the significant increase in surface runoff. Runoff predictions showed that a full rehabilitation of the watershed, especially in barren and logged-over areas, will be likely to reduce the generation of a huge volume of runoff during rainfall events. The results of this study have demonstrated the usefulness of multi-temporal Landsat images in detecting land-cover change, in identifying areas for rehabilitation, and in evaluating rehabilitation strategies for management of tropical watersheds through its use in hydrologic modeling.

  12. Rainfall model investigation and scenario analyses of the effect of government reforestation policy on seasonal rainfalls: A case study from Northern Thailand (United States)

    Duangdai, Eakkapong; Likasiri, Chulin


    In this work, 4 models for predicting rainfall amounts are investigated and compared using Northern Thailand's seasonal rainfall data for 1973-2008. Two models, global temperature, forest area and seasonal rainfall (TFR) and modified TFR based on a system of differential equations, give the relationships between global temperature, Northern Thailand's forest cover and seasonal rainfalls in the region. The other two models studied are time series and Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models. All models are validated using the k-fold cross validation method with the resulting errors being 0.971233, 0.740891, 2.376415 and 2.430891 for time series, ARMA, TFR and modified TFR models, respectively. Under Business as Usual (BaU) scenario, seasonal rainfalls in Northern Thailand are projected through the year 2020 using all 4 models. TFR and modified TFR models are also used to further analyze how global temperature rise and government reforestation policy affect seasonal rainfalls in the region. Rainfall projections obtained via the two models are also compared with those from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) under IS92a scenario. Results obtained through a mathematical model for global temperature, forest area and seasonal rainfall show that the higher the forest cover, the less fluctuation there is between rainy-season and summer rainfalls. Moreover, growth in forest cover also correlates with an increase in summer rainfalls. An investigation into the relationship between main crop productions and rainfalls in dry and rainy seasons indicates that if the rainy-season rainfall is high, that year's main-crop rice production will decrease but the second-crop rice, maize, sugarcane and soybean productions will increase in the following year.

  13. Land leveling impact on surface runoff and soil losses: Estimation with coupled deterministic/stochastic models for a Québec agricultural field (United States)

    Gagnon, Patrick; Chrétien, François; Thériault, Georges


    Land leveling impact on water quality had not received much attention for fields in humid continental climate. The objectives of this study were to isolate the impact of land leveling, performed on an agricultural field (Québec, Canada) in spring 2012, on runoff and TSS load and to make recommendations to attenuate adverse environmental impacts of land leveling, if any. A total of 66 runoff events, including 22 with total suspended sediments (TSS) load estimates, from 2010 to 2014 were analyzed. To this end, deterministic models were coupled to an adaptive Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to estimate the unknown distribution of the parameters representing the most important effects, namely land leveling, tillage, and crop cover. Simulated runoff events were generated by the hydrological model SWMM version 5 while simulated TSS loads were generated by an empirical equation based on the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation version 2 (RUSLE2). Thanks to the algorithm used, it was demonstrated that land leveling significantly decreased total runoff volume at least for the two following years. The impact on peak flow was mixed: land leveling significantly decreased peak flow for a typical stratiform rainfall event but the effect was unclear for a typical convective rainfall event. Based on 90% confidence interval, TSS load increased from 10 to 1000 times immediately after land leveling (spring 2012) compared to pre-land leveling events. The TSS load increase remained significant one year after land leveling, with TSS loads 5-20 times higher compared to pre-land leveling events. It would thus be recommended to grow crops with high ground coverage ratios coupled with cover crops during the year when land leveling is done. Sediment retention structures could also be installed at the beginning of the land leveling process to provide protection against the short term and delayed impact on water quality.

  14. Evaluation of two models for the distribution of daily rainfall Amounts ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The distribution of daily rainfall amounts were modeled to the gamma and exponential distribution functions. Historical rainfall data from fourteen stations covering the vegetative zones of the country were fitted, by month to the two functions to estimate the parameters of the models. The gamma model yielded a better fit to ...

  15. Coupling meteorological and hydrological models to evaluate the uncertainty in runoff forecasting: the case study of Maggiore Lake basin (United States)

    Ceppi, A.; Ravazzani, G.; Rabuffetti, D.; Mancini, M.


    In recent years, the interest in the prediction and prevention of natural hazards related to hydro-meteorological events has increased the challenge for numerical weather modelling, in particular for limited area models, to improve the Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs) for hydrological purposes. The development and implementation of a real-time flood forecasting system with a hydro-meteorological operational alert procedure during the MAP-D-PHASE Project is described in this paper. D-PHASE stands for Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region and is a Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) of the WWRP (World Weather Research Programme of WMO). It aims at demonstrating some of the many achievements of the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP). The MAP FDP has addressed the entire forecasting chain, ranging from limited-area ensemble forecasting, high-resolution atmospheric modelling (km-scale), hydrological modelling and nowcasting to decision making by the end users, i.e., it is foreseen to set up an end-to-end forecasting system. The D-PHASE Operations Period (DOP) was from 1 June to 30 November 2007. In this study the hydro-meteorological chain includes both probabilistic forecasting based on ensemble prediction systems with lead time of a few days and short-range forecasts based on high resolution deterministic atmospheric models. D-PHASE hydrological ensemble forecasts are based on the 16 meteorological members, provided by COSMO-LEPS model (by ARPA Emilia-Romagna) with 5 day lead-time and a horizontal resolution of 10 km. Deterministic hydrological D-PHASE forecasts are provided by MOLOCH weather model (by ISAC-CNR) with a horizontal resolution of 2.2 km, nested into BOLAM, based on GFS initial and boundary conditions with 48 h lead-time. The hydrological model used to generate the runoff simulations is the rainfall-runoff distributed FEST-WB model, developed at Politecnico di Milano. The

  16. Application of the rainfall infiltration breakthrough (RIB) model for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Recharge estimation in arid and semi-arid areas is very challenging. The chloride mass balance method applied in western South Africa fails to provide reliable recharge estimates near coastal areas. A relationship between rainfall events and water level fluctuations (WLF) on a monthly basis was proposed in the rainfall ...

  17. Estimating rainfall distributions at high temporal resolutions using a multifractal model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Pathirana


    Full Text Available Rainfall data from 18 stations in the vicinity of Tokyo city, measured to a precision of 1 mm, were analysed for multifractal properties. A multifractal model based on the scaling properties of temporal distribution of rainfall intensities was formulated to investigate the intensity distribution relationships in the available scaling regime. Although conventional analysis did not provide encouraging results with these measurements, an alternative approach that could be applied to rainfall data of widely variable quality and duration was used to establish a scaling relationship between daily and hourly rainfall intensities. Using a discrete cascade algorithm based on the log-Lèvy generator, synthetic hourly rainfall series were generated from the multifractal statistics of daily-accumulated rainfall. Several properties of rainfall time series that are relevant to the use of rainfall data in surface hydrological studies were used to determine, statistically, the degree of agreement between the synthetic hourly series and observed hourly rainfall. Keywords: rainfall modelling, cascades, multifractal, downscaling

  18. On the role of model structure in hydrological modeling : Understanding models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gharari, S.


    Modeling is an essential part of the science of hydrology. Models enable us to formulate what we know and perceive from the real world into a neat package. Rainfall-runoff models are abstract simplifications of how a catchment works. Within the research field of scientific rainfall-runoff modeling,


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. H. Ali


    Full Text Available The hydrology of Upper Indus basin is not recognized well due to the intricacies in the climate and geography, and the scarcity of data above 5000 m a.s.l where most of the precipitation falls in the form of snow. The main objective of this study is to measure the contributions of different components of runoff in Upper Indus basin. To achieve this goal, the Modified positive degree day model (MPDDM was used to simulate the runoff and investigate its components in two catchments of Upper Indus basin, Hunza and Gilgit River basins. These two catchments were selected because of their different glacier coverage, contrasting area distribution at high altitudes and significant impact on the Upper Indus River flow. The components of runoff like snow-ice melt and rainfall-base flow were identified by the model. The simulation results show that the MPDDM shows a good agreement between observed and modeled runoff of these two catchments and the effects of snow and ice are mainly reliant on the catchment characteristics and the glaciated area. For Gilgit River basin, the largest contributor to runoff is rain-base flow, whereas large contribution of snow-ice melt observed in Hunza River basin due to its large fraction of glaciated area. This research will not only contribute to the better understanding of the impacts of climate change on the hydrological response in the Upper Indus, but will also provide guidance for the development of hydropower potential and water resources assessment in these catchments.

  20. The value of snow data assimilation for runoff modeling in alpine catchments (United States)

    Griessinger, Nena; Jonas, Tobias; Seibert, Jan


    Snowmelt provides a dominant contribution to runoff and groundwater storages in mountainous regions, where, therefore, modeling snow processes is crucial for resource management as well as for flood or drought forecasting. Erroneous simulations of snow accumulation can bias the amount and timing of snowmelt simulations and thus impact runoff modeling. In this study, we address the question, whether the performance of a runoff model can be enhanced by integrating data from a dedicated external snow monitoring system. As a framework for our tests we used the hydrological model HBV (in the version HBVlight), which originally follows a temperature index approach with time-invariant calibrated degree-day factors to represent snowmelt. We modified HBV to use snowmelt time series from an external and spatially distributed snow model as alternative model input. The external snow model integrates three-dimensional sequential assimilation of snow monitoring data with a snowmelt model also based on the temperature index approach, but uses a time-variant degree-day factor. The following three variations of this external snow model were applied: a) the full model with assimilation of observational snow data from a dense monitoring network, b) the same snow model but with data assimilation switched off, c) a downgraded version of the same snow model representing snowmelt with a time-invariant degree-day factor. Model runs were conducted for 20 catchments at different elevations within Switzerland for 15 years. Our results show that at low and mid elevations the performance of the runoff simulations did not vary considerably with the snow model version chosen. At higher elevations, however, best performance in terms of simulated runoff was obtained when using the snowmelt time series from the snow model which utilized data assimilation. Considerably higher performance metrics for snow-rich years than for years with low snow amounts were demonstrated. These findings suggest that

  1. Spatial Disaggregation of Areal Rainfall Using Two Different Artificial Neural Networks Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sungwon Kim


    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to develop artificial neural network (ANN models, including multilayer perceptron (MLP and Kohonen self-organizing feature map (KSOFM, for spatial disaggregation of areal rainfall in the Wi-stream catchment, an International Hydrological Program (IHP representative catchment, in South Korea. A three-layer MLP model, using three training algorithms, was used to estimate areal rainfall. The Levenberg–Marquardt training algorithm was found to be more sensitive to the number of hidden nodes than were the conjugate gradient and quickprop training algorithms using the MLP model. Results showed that the networks structures of 11-5-1 (conjugate gradient and quickprop and 11-3-1 (Levenberg-Marquardt were the best for estimating areal rainfall using the MLP model. The networks structures of 1-5-11 (conjugate gradient and quickprop and 1-3-11 (Levenberg–Marquardt, which are the inverse networks for estimating areal rainfall using the best MLP model, were identified for spatial disaggregation of areal rainfall using the MLP model. The KSOFM model was compared with the MLP model for spatial disaggregation of areal rainfall. The MLP and KSOFM models could disaggregate areal rainfall into individual point rainfall with spatial concepts.

  2. Estimating runoff and soil moisture deficit in guinea savannah region ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Estimating runoff and soil moisture deficit in guinea savannah region of Nigeria using water balance method. ... The estimation ofrunoff and soil moisture deficit in Guinea Savannah region using semi arid model based on soil water balance technique (SAMBA) was carried out. The input to the SAMBA model are daily rainfall ...

  3. Influence of Schematization Detailness on the Results of Rainfall-Runoff Modelling in the Lubina River Basin / Vliv Podrobnosti Schematizace na Výsledky Srážkoodtokového Modelování v Povodí Lubiny

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adamec Martin


    Full Text Available Příspěvek zkoumá formou případové studie vliv podrobnosti schematizace povodí na výsledek srážkoodtokového modelování. V zájmovém území byly vytvořeny tři schematizace s rozdílnou podrobností a následně byla provedena pomocí programu HEC-HMS simulace srážkoodtokového procesu pro přívalovou srážkovou epizodu. Výsledné hydrogramy jsou dále srovnávány s reálným průtokem měřeným v závěrovém profilu modelového povodí. Jako modelové povodí bylo použito povodí Lubiny o velikosti cca 160 km2, které má výraznou výškovou členitost a variabilní využití země, takže srovnání nebylo omezeno na jeden typ krajiny. Také bylo provedeno statistické vyhodnocení přesnosti modelů pomocí metody Nash-Sutcliffe. Na závěr jsou výsledky diskutovány a vysvětleny pravděpodobné příčiny chování modelů

  4. Assessment of Noah land surface model with various runoff parameterizations over a Tibetan river (United States)

    Zheng, Donghai; Van Der Velde, Rogier; Su, Zhongbo; Wen, Jun; Wang, Xin


    Runoff parameterizations currently adopted by the (i) Noah-MP model, (ii) Community Land Model (CLM), and (iii) CLM with variable infiltration capacity hydrology (CLM-VIC) are incorporated into the structure of Noah land surface model, and the impact of these parameterizations on the runoff simulations is investigated for a Tibetan river. Four numerical experiments are conducted with the default Noah and three aforementioned runoff parameterizations. Each experiment is forced with the same set of atmospheric forcing, vegetation, and soil parameters. In addition, the Community Earth System Model database provides the maximum surface saturated area parameter for the Noah-MP and CLM parameterizations. A single-year recurrent spin-up is adopted for the initialization of each model run to achieve equilibrium states. Comparison with discharge measurements shows that each runoff parameterization produces significant differences in the separation of total runoff into surface and subsurface components and that the soil water storage-based parameterizations (Noah and CLM-VIC) outperform the groundwater table-based parameterizations (Noah-MP and CLM) for the seasonally frozen and high-altitude Tibetan river. A parameter sensitivity experiment illustrates that this underperformance of the groundwater table-based parameterizations cannot be resolved through calibration. Further analyses demonstrate that the simulations of other surface water and energy budget components are insensitive to the selected runoff parameterizations, due to the strong control of the atmosphere on simulated land surface fluxes induced by the diurnal dependence of the roughness length for heat transfer and the large water retention capacity of the highly organic top soils over the plateau.

  5. An artificial neural network model for rainfall forecasting in Bangkok, Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Q. Hung


    Full Text Available This paper presents a new approach using an Artificial Neural Network technique to improve rainfall forecast performance. A real world case study was set up in Bangkok; 4 years of hourly data from 75 rain gauge stations in the area were used to develop the ANN model. The developed ANN model is being applied for real time rainfall forecasting and flood management in Bangkok, Thailand. Aimed at providing forecasts in a near real time schedule, different network types were tested with different kinds of input information. Preliminary tests showed that a generalized feedforward ANN model using hyperbolic tangent transfer function achieved the best generalization of rainfall. Especially, the use of a combination of meteorological parameters (relative humidity, air pressure, wet bulb temperature and cloudiness, the rainfall at the point of forecasting and rainfall at the surrounding stations, as an input data, advanced ANN model to apply with continuous data containing rainy and non-rainy period, allowed model to issue forecast at any moment. Additionally, forecasts by ANN model were compared to the convenient approach namely simple persistent method. Results show that ANN forecasts have superiority over the ones obtained by the persistent model. Rainfall forecasts for Bangkok from 1 to 3 h ahead were highly satisfactory. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the most important input parameter besides rainfall itself is the wet bulb temperature in forecasting rainfall.

  6. Simulation of rainfall interception using multilayer model in evergreen broadleaf forest, Cambodia (United States)

    Nobuhiro, T.; Shimizu, A.; Tanaka, K.; Kabeya, N.; Tamai, K.; Chann, S.; Keth, N.


    The proportion of forest area is relatively high in Cambodia compared with neighboring countries. Therefore forest is one of the important factors on the water cycle in this country. The rainfall interception by a tree canopy and evaporation after the rainfall event are one of the important factors for considering such a water cycle. To clarify those processes, a rainfall interception measurement plot (25 x 25 m) was constructed in the evergreen broadleaf forest area in Kampong Thom province, central part of Cambodia. We measured rainfall, through fall and stem flow in the interception plot, and then we analyzed the relationship between those components. Moreover, the simulation of rainfall interception was carried out using multilayer model. Model parameters such as canopy structure and leaf characteristics were estimated using observed interception components and meteorological elements during large rainfall event. Annual rainfall interception was reproduced using multilayer model with obtained parameters and observed meteorological elements. The simulation results were in agreement with the observed value. The rainfall interception rate in the interception plot was considered to be about 15 % against annual rainfall.

  7. Physical design optimization of an urban runoff treatment system using Stormwater Management Model (SWMM). (United States)

    Tobio, J A S; Maniquiz-Redillas, M C; Kim, L H


    The study presented the application of Stormwater Management Model (SWMM) in determining the optimal physical design properties of an established low impact development (LID) system treating road runoff. The calibration of the model was based on monitored storm events occurring from May 2010 to July 2013. It was found that the total suspended solids was highly correlated with stormwater runoff volume and dominant heavy metal constituents in stormwater runoff, such lead, zinc and copper, with a Pearson correlation coefficient ranging from 0.88 to 0.95 (P<0.05). Reducing the original ratio of the storage volume to surface area (SV/SA) of the facility and depth by 25% could match the satisfactory performance efficiency achieved in the original design. The smaller SV/SA and depth would mean a less costly system, signifying the importance of optimization in designing LID systems.

  8. Analyzing the Implications of Climate Data on the Rainfall Frequency Spectrum: Case Study of Knoxville, Tennessee and Surrounding Region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sylvester, Linda M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Omitaomu, Olufemi A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Parish, Esther S. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)


    Modeled daily precipitation values are used to determine changes in percentile rainfall event depths, for planning and mitigation of stormwater runoff, over past (1980-2005) and future (2025-2050) periods for Knoxville, Tennessee and the surrounding area.

  9. Dynamic Modeling of Surface Runoff and Storm Surge during Hurricane and Tropical Storm Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walter F. Silva-Araya


    Full Text Available Hurricane events combine ocean storm surge penetration with inland runoff flooding. This article presents a new methodology to determine coastal flood levels caused by the combination of storm surge and surface runoff. The proposed approach couples the Simulating Waves Nearshore model and the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC model with the Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA two-dimensional hydrologic model. Radar precipitation data in a 2D hydrologic model with a circulation model allows simulation of time and spatially varied conditions. The method was applied to study flooding scenarios occurring during the passage of Hurricane Georges (1998 on the east coast of Puerto Rico. The combination of storm surge and surface runoff produced a critical scenario, in terms of flood depth, at this location. The paper describes the data collection process, circulation and hydrologic models, their assemblage and simulation scenarios. Results show that peak flow from inland runoff and peak flow due to storm surge did not coincide in the coastal zone; however, the interaction of both discharges causes an aggravated hazardous condition by increasing flood levels beyond those obtained with storm surge penetration only. Linking of storm surge and hydrologic models are necessary when storm surge conditions occur simultaneously with high precipitation over steep and small coastal watersheds.

  10. Comparison of a deterministic model, a stochastic multifractal model and radar rainfall data (United States)

    Gires, Auguste; Schertzer, Daniel; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Lovejoy, Shaun


    Two primary approaches to model rainfall are the stochastic approaches, which aim at mimicking the rain phenomenology, and the deterministic approaches. The latter mainly rely on geophysical fluid dynamics equations, in particular the Navier-Stokes equations. Solving these equations require simplifying assumptions such as parameterization and scale truncations. In the present case, we used Meso-NH model, which is a meteorological non-hydrostatic mesoscale model developed by Meteo-France/CNRM and Laboratoire d'Aérologie (Toulouse, France). Multiplicative cascade models, which are physically based models involving huge ratios of scales and intensities, allow to bridge the gap between the two previously mentioned methods. In this study, we considered a multifractal space-time cascade model, whose space-time anisotropy is defined with the help of a unique scaling exponent. We worked in the framework of universal multifractals in which the scaling variability and the extremes of the rain are quantified with the help of three parameters. The rainfall outputs of the Meso-NH model and the radar data were analyzed in the framework of the stochastic model. We selected a case study corresponding to a heavy rainfall event in the south of France. Both data sets exhibit a similar qualitative multifractal behavior in accordance with the framework of a unified space-time scaling model. Quantitatively, the estimates of the multifractal parameters suggest that the deterministic model under-represent the natural variability of the rainfall field.

  11. Analysis of the French insurance market exposure to floods: a stochastic model combining river overflow and surface runoff (United States)

    Moncoulon, D.; Labat, D.; Ardon, J.; Leblois, E.; Onfroy, T.; Poulard, C.; Aji, S.; Rémy, A.; Quantin, A.


    The analysis of flood exposure at a national scale for the French insurance market must combine the generation of a probabilistic event set of all possible (but which have not yet occurred) flood situations with hazard and damage modeling. In this study, hazard and damage models are calibrated on a 1995-2010 historical event set, both for hazard results (river flow, flooded areas) and loss estimations. Thus, uncertainties in the deterministic estimation of a single event loss are known before simulating a probabilistic event set. To take into account at least 90 % of the insured flood losses, the probabilistic event set must combine the river overflow (small and large catchments) with the surface runoff, due to heavy rainfall, on the slopes of the watershed. Indeed, internal studies of the CCR (Caisse Centrale de Reassurance) claim database have shown that approximately 45 % of the insured flood losses are located inside the floodplains and 45 % outside. Another 10 % is due to sea surge floods and groundwater rise. In this approach, two independent probabilistic methods are combined to create a single flood loss distribution: a generation of fictive river flows based on the historical records of the river gauge network and a generation of fictive rain fields on small catchments, calibrated on the 1958-2010 Météo-France rain database SAFRAN. All the events in the probabilistic event sets are simulated with the deterministic model. This hazard and damage distribution is used to simulate the flood losses at the national scale for an insurance company (Macif) and to generate flood areas associated with hazard return periods. The flood maps concern river overflow and surface water runoff. Validation of these maps is conducted by comparison with the address located claim data on a small catchment (downstream Argens).

  12. Research on the Relationship between Landslide of Farming Terraces and the Intensity of Rainfall and Slope Angle Based on the Indoor Rainfall Slide Slope Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dongqin Chen


    Full Text Available Due to the increase of geographical disaster in China, it is necessary to study the formation mechanism to make a preparation for the future prevention of geological disasters and effectively reduce the unnecessary financial loss and casualties. We found there is a powerful connection between heavy rainfall and landslide slope. Thus, this article takes the accumulation of gravel soil as the research material to set up indoor rainfall and landslide model test. By comparing the rules of pore water pressure and soil pressure responding to different rainfall intensity and slope angle, we discussed over the effects of rainfall intensity and slope angle on the sliding of accumulation gravelly soil.

  13. Multi-model ensemble simulation of runoff in the Chao River Basin, China (United States)

    Wang, Y.; Duan, Q.


    It is important to obtain reliable prediction of runoff in semi-humid area in the context of climate change. This paper studies the use of Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to improve prediction skills of runoff based on several hydrologic models in Chao River Basin, China. The performance of Xinanjiang Model, Saracmento Model (SAC), Distributed Time Variant Gain Model (DTVGM) and the models from the structure for unifying multiple modeling alternatives (SUMMA) were evaluated, and the results show that the SAC model was more skillful than other models. Then an ensemble generated by using BMA method, which is generally superior to that of the best individual predictions with higher Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) and daily root mean square error (DRMS). Furthermore, the results from BMA had a better ability to simulate the peak value, which would be essential for the mitigation of flood and water management.

  14. A combined Pòlya process and mixture distribution approach to rainfall modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Todini


    Full Text Available A new probabilistic interpretation of at site rainfall sequences is introduced for the development of a stochastic model of rain. The model, is divided into two sub models; the first one describing the total number of rainfall spells within a window of time is described by a Pòlya process in order to reproduce better the variable probability of occurrence of rainfall during storm events (due to the presence of different numbers of rainfall cells; the second sub model, conditional on the first one, describes the total quantity of rainfall in the time window, given a number of rainfall spells. The probabilistic rainfall model, which has shown interesting properties in reproducing the probability distribution of observed data at time scales ranging from one hour to twenty-four hours, may be the basis for a number of applications which include the development of a conditional stochastic generator of rain, within the frame of real-time flood forecasting, and the derivation of a probabilistic distribution of rainfall extremes at the various time scales.

  15. Performance of Geno-Fuzzy Model on rainfall-runoff predictions in claypan watersheds (United States)

    Fuzzy logic provides a relatively simple approach to simulate complex hydrological systems while accounting for the uncertainty of environmental variables. The objective of this study was to develop a fuzzy inference system (FIS) with genetic algorithm (GA) optimization for membership functions (MF...

  16. Spatial connections in regional climate model rainfall outputs at different temporal scales: Application of network theory (United States)

    Naufan, Ihsan; Sivakumar, Bellie; Woldemeskel, Fitsum M.; Raghavan, Srivatsan V.; Vu, Minh Tue; Liong, Shie-Yui


    Understanding the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall has always been a great challenge, and the impacts of climate change further complicate this issue. The present study employs the concepts of complex networks to study the spatial connections in rainfall, with emphasis on climate change and rainfall scaling. Rainfall outputs (during 1961-1990) from a regional climate model (i.e. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model that downscaled the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF ERA-40 reanalyses) over Southeast Asia are studied, and data corresponding to eight different temporal scales (6-hr, 12-hr, daily, 2-day, 4-day, weekly, biweekly, and monthly) are analyzed. Two network-based methods are applied to examine the connections in rainfall: clustering coefficient (a measure of the network's local density) and degree distribution (a measure of the network's spread). The influence of rainfall correlation threshold (T) on spatial connections is also investigated by considering seven different threshold levels (ranging from 0.5 to 0.8). The results indicate that: (1) rainfall networks corresponding to much coarser temporal scales exhibit properties similar to that of small-world networks, regardless of the threshold; (2) rainfall networks corresponding to much finer temporal scales may be classified as either small-world networks or scale-free networks, depending upon the threshold; and (3) rainfall spatial connections exhibit a transition phase at intermediate temporal scales, especially at high thresholds. These results suggest that the most appropriate model for studying spatial connections may often be different at different temporal scales, and that a combination of small-world and scale-free network models might be more appropriate for rainfall upscaling/downscaling across all scales, in the strict sense of scale-invariance. The results also suggest that spatial connections in the studied rainfall networks in Southeast Asia are

  17. Impacts of rainfall variability and expected rainfall changes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change. (United States)

    van der Pol, T D; van Ierland, E C; Gabbert, S; Weikard, H-P; Hendrix, E M T


    Stormwater drainage and other water systems are vulnerable to changes in rainfall and runoff and need to be adapted to climate change. This paper studies impacts of rainfall variability and changing return periods of rainfall extremes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change given a predefined system performance target, for example a flood risk standard. Rainfall variability causes system performance estimates to be volatile. These estimates may be used to recurrently evaluate system performance. This paper presents a model for this setting, and develops a solution method to identify cost-effective investments in stormwater drainage adaptations. Runoff and water levels are simulated with rainfall from stationary rainfall distributions, and time series of annual rainfall maxima are simulated for a climate scenario. Cost-effective investment strategies are determined by dynamic programming. The method is applied to study the choice of volume for a storage basin in a Dutch polder. We find that 'white noise', i.e. trend-free variability of rainfall, might cause earlier re-investment than expected under projected changes in rainfall. The risk of early re-investment may be reduced by increasing initial investment. This can be cost-effective if the investment involves fixed costs. Increasing initial investments, therefore, not only increases water system robustness to structural changes in rainfall, but could also offer insurance against additional costs that would occur if system performance is underestimated and re-investment becomes inevitable. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Using satellite-based rainfall data to support the implementation of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The methods currently available in South Africa to implement environmental flows are based on real-time rainfall-runoff models (which require accurate inputs of rainfall data) or the use of flow gauges. Both methods are useful but have limitations which must be fully understood. The main limitation of the latter approach is ...

  19. Comparison of several climate indices as inputs in modelling of the Baltic Sea runoff

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanninen, J.; Vuorinen, I. [Turku Univ. (Finland). Archipelaco Research Inst.], e-mail:


    Using Transfer function (TF) models, we have earlier presented a chain of events between changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their oceanographical and ecological consequences in the Baltic Sea. Here we tested whether other climate indices as inputs would improve TF models, and our understanding of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Besides NAO, the predictors were the Arctic Oscillation (AO), sea-level air pressures at Iceland (SLP), and wind speeds at Hoburg (Gotland). All indices produced good TF models when the total riverine runoff to the Baltic Sea was used as a modelling basis. AO was not applicable in all study areas, showing a delay of about half a year between climate and runoff events, connected with freezing and melting time of ice and snow in the northern catchment area of the Baltic Sea. NAO appeared to be most useful modelling tool as its area of applicability was the widest of the tested indices, and the time lag between climate and runoff events was the shortest. SLP and Hoburg wind speeds showed largely same results as NAO, but with smaller areal applicability. Thus AO and NAO were both mostly contributing to the general understanding of climate control of runoff events in the Baltic Sea ecosystem. (orig.)

  20. Effect of spatial distribution of daily rainfall on interior catchment response of a distributed hydrological model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schuurmans, J.M.; Bierkens, M.F.P.


    We investigate the effect of spatial variability of daily rainfall on soil moisture, groundwater level and discharge using a physically-based, fully-distributed hydrological model. We focus on the effect of rainfall spatial variability on day-to-day variability of the interior catchment response, as

  1. Improved unit hydrograph characterisation of the daily flow regime (including low flows for the River Teifi, Wales: towards better rainfall-streamflow models for regionalisation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I.G. Littlewood


    Full Text Available An established rainfall-streamflow modelling methodology employing a six-parameter unit hydrograph-based rainfall-runoff model structure is developed further to give an improved model-fit to daily flows for the River Teifi at Glan Teifi. It is shown that a previous model of this type for the Teifi, which (a accounted for 85% of the variance in observed streamflow, (b incorporated a pure time delay of one day and (c was calibrated using a trade-off between two model-fit statistics (as recommended in the original methodology, systematically over-estimates low flows. Using that model as a starting point the combined application of a non-integer pure time delay and further adjustment of a temperature modulation parameter in the loss module, using the flow duration curve as an additional model-fit criterion, gives a much improved model-fit to low flows, while leaving the already good model-fit to higher flows essentially unchanged. The further adjustment of the temperature modulation loss module parameter in this way is much more effective at improving model-fit to low flows than the introduction of the non-integer pure time delay. The new model for the Teifi accounts for 88% of the variance in observed streamflow and performs well over the 5 percentile to 95 percentile range of flows. Issues concerning the utility and efficacy of the new model selection procedure are discussed in the context of hydrological studies, including regionalisation. Keywords: unit hydrographs, rainfall-runoff modelling, low flows, regionalisation.

  2. Application of wavelet-based multiple linear regression model to rainfall forecasting in Australia (United States)

    He, X.; Guan, H.; Zhang, X.; Simmons, C.


    In this study, a wavelet-based multiple linear regression model is applied to forecast monthly rainfall in Australia by using monthly historical rainfall data and climate indices as inputs. The wavelet-based model is constructed by incorporating the multi-resolution analysis (MRA) with the discrete wavelet transform and multiple linear regression (MLR) model. The standardized monthly rainfall anomaly and large-scale climate index time series are decomposed using MRA into a certain number of component subseries at different temporal scales. The hierarchical lag relationship between the rainfall anomaly and each potential predictor is identified by cross correlation analysis with a lag time of at least one month at different temporal scales. The components of predictor variables with known lag times are then screened with a stepwise linear regression algorithm to be selectively included into the final forecast model. The MRA-based rainfall forecasting method is examined with 255 stations over Australia, and compared to the traditional multiple linear regression model based on the original time series. The models are trained with data from the 1959-1995 period and then tested in the 1996-2008 period for each station. The performance is compared with observed rainfall values, and evaluated by common statistics of relative absolute error and correlation coefficient. The results show that the wavelet-based regression model provides considerably more accurate monthly rainfall forecasts for all of the selected stations over Australia than the traditional regression model.

  3. The Idiosyncrasies of Storage and Implications for Catchment Runoff (Invited) (United States)

    Spence, C.


    Because water goes into storage when it rains, perhaps the entire concept of a direct rainfall-runoff process is erroneous and misleading. Perhaps the runoff generation process is merely the conversion of storage to runoff. Using this perspective as a foundation, it then becomes important to understand how catchments retain water, where this storage is distributed and what controls the distribution of this storage. There is a growing body of observational evidence that the idiosyncrasies of storage in the catchment are crucial for runoff generation. These idiosyncrasies are important enough that some hydrologists are questioning assumptions of steady state, linearity, and topographic control in existing theories and algorithms of runoff generation. For instance, thresholds that control the release of water have been identified at many scales and in many landscapes. Hysteresis in storage-runoff relationships at all scales manifest because of these thresholds. Because storage thresholds at a range of scales are now known to be important for runoff response, connectivity has become an important concept crucial to interpreting catchment runoff response. There appears to be growing acceptance of such ideas as thresholds, hysteresis and connectivity in the hydrological literature. Theoretical development and model parameterization have begun, but there remains much work to resolve these field observations. In particular, our community should strive to investigate the relevance of storage-runoff relationships partly through innovative measurement techniques and the development of model structures appropriate for the requisite testing of these theories in a diversity of landscapes.

  4. Rainfall–runoff temporal variability in Kermanshah province, Iran ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Investigation of changes in rainfall and runoff patterns in various regions and determining their relationship in the sense of hydrology and climatology are of great importance, considering those patterns efficiently reveal the human and natural factors in this variability. One of the mathematical methods to recognise and model ...

  5. Modelling of Multi Input Transfer Function for Rainfall Forecasting in Batu City

    Directory of Op