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Sample records for qualitative risk assessment

  1. Qualitative methods for assessing risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahn, J.A. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hannaman, G.W. [Science Applications International Corp., San Diego, CA (United States); Kryska, P. [Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1995-04-01

    The Department of Energy`s (DOE) non-nuclear facilities generally require only a qualitative accident analysis to assess facility risks in accordance with DOE Order 5481.1B, Safety Analysis and Review System. Achieving a meaningful qualitative assessment of risk necessarily requires the use of suitable non-numerical assessment criteria. Typically, the methods and criteria for assigning facility-specific accident scenarios to the qualitative severity and likelihood classification system in the DOE order requires significant judgment in many applications. Systematic methods for more consistently assigning the total accident scenario frequency and associated consequences are required to substantiate and enhance future risk ranking between various activities at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). SNL`s Risk Management and National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Department has developed an improved methodology for performing qualitative risk assessments in accordance wi the DOE order requirements. Products of this effort are an improved set of qualitative description that permit (1) definition of the severity for both technical and programmatic consequences that may result from a variety of accident scenarios, and (2) qualitative representation of the likelihood of occurrence. These sets of descriptions are intended to facilitate proper application of DOE criteria for assessing facility risks.

  2. Qualitative methods for assessing risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahn, J.A. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hannaman, G.W. [Science Applications International Corp., San Diego, CA (United States); Kryska, P. [Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1995-04-01

    The Department of Energy`s (DOE) non-nuclear facilities generally require only a qualitative accident analysis to assess facility risks in accordance with DOE Order 5481.1B, Safety Analysis and Review System. Achieving a meaningful qualitative assessment of risk necessarily requires the use of suitable non-numerical assessment criteria. Typically, the methods and criteria for assigning facility-specific accident scenarios to the qualitative severity and likelihood classification system in the DOE order requires significant judgment in many applications. Systematic methods for more consistently assigning the total accident scenario frequency and associated consequences are required to substantiate and enhance future risk ranking between various activities at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). SNL`s Risk Management and National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Department has developed an improved methodology for performing qualitative risk assessments in accordance wi the DOE order requirements. Products of this effort are an improved set of qualitative description that permit (1) definition of the severity for both technical and programmatic consequences that may result from a variety of accident scenarios, and (2) qualitative representation of the likelihood of occurrence. These sets of descriptions are intended to facilitate proper application of DOE criteria for assessing facility risks.

  3. Methodology for qualitative urban flooding risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leitão, João P; Almeida, Maria do Céu; Simões, Nuno E; Martins, André

    2013-01-01

    Pluvial or surface flooding can cause significant damage and disruption as it often affects highly urbanised areas. Therefore it is essential to accurately identify consequences and assess the risks associated with such phenomena. The aim of this study is to present the results and investigate the applicability of a qualitative flood risk assessment methodology in urban areas. This methodology benefits from recent developments in urban flood modelling, such as the dual-drainage modelling concept, namely one-dimensional automatic overland flow network delineation tools (e.g. AOFD) and 1D/1D models incorporating both surface and sewer drainage systems. To assess flood risk, the consequences can be estimated using hydraulic model results, such as water velocities and water depth results; the likelihood was estimated based on the return period of historical rainfall events. To test the methodology two rainfall events with return periods of 350 and 2 years observed in Alcântara (Lisbon, Portugal) were used and three consequence dimensions were considered: affected public transportation services, affected properties and pedestrian safety. The most affected areas in terms of flooding were easily identified; the presented methodology was shown to be easy to implement and effective to assess flooding risk in urban areas, despite the common difficulties in obtaining data.

  4. A comparison of risk assessment techniques from qualitative to quantitative

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Altenbach, T.J.

    1995-02-13

    Risk assessment techniques vary from purely qualitative approaches, through a regime of semi-qualitative to the more traditional quantitative. Constraints such as time, money, manpower, skills, management perceptions, risk result communication to the public, and political pressures all affect the manner in which risk assessments are carried out. This paper surveys some risk matrix techniques, examining the uses and applicability for each. Limitations and problems for each technique are presented and compared to the others. Risk matrix approaches vary from purely qualitative axis descriptions of accident frequency vs consequences, to fully quantitative axis definitions using multi-attribute utility theory to equate different types of risk from the same operation.

  5. Qualitative risk assessment: a conceptual context and three diverse applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elsea, K.J.; Conger, D.S. (Conger and Elsea, Inc., Woodstock, GA (United States))

    1992-01-01

    Risk is defined as the probability of an occurrence multiplied by the consequences of that occurrence. Such a definition implies a quantitative or at least a mathematical operation. However, qualitative uses of risk have proved useful tools in incident investigation and management decision making. This paper provides a conceptual context for qualitative risk assessment and discusses three efforts at subject organizations (an aerospace firm, a US Department of Energy weapons-related facility, and a commercial nuclear reactor) that have applied qualitative risk techniques for different uses and with different results. A lessons-learned section summarizes and provides future direction.

  6. Information Uncertainty to Compare Qualitative Reasoning Security Risk Assessment Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chavez, Gregory M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Key, Brian P [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Zerkle, David K [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Shevitz, Daniel W [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2009-01-01

    The security risk associated with malevolent acts such as those of terrorism are often void of the historical data required for a traditional PRA. Most information available to conduct security risk assessments for these malevolent acts is obtained from subject matter experts as subjective judgements. Qualitative reasoning approaches such as approximate reasoning and evidential reasoning are useful for modeling the predicted risk from information provided by subject matter experts. Absent from these approaches is a consistent means to compare the security risk assessment results. Associated with each predicted risk reasoning result is a quantifiable amount of information uncertainty which can be measured and used to compare the results. This paper explores using entropy measures to quantify the information uncertainty associated with conflict and non-specificity in the predicted reasoning results. The measured quantities of conflict and non-specificity can ultimately be used to compare qualitative reasoning results which are important in triage studies and ultimately resource allocation. Straight forward extensions of previous entropy measures are presented here to quantify the non-specificity and conflict associated with security risk assessment results obtained from qualitative reasoning models.

  7. Comparison study on qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods for urban natural gas pipeline network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Z Y; Weng, W G

    2011-05-15

    In this paper, a qualitative and a quantitative risk assessment methods for urban natural gas pipeline network are proposed. The qualitative method is comprised of an index system, which includes a causation index, an inherent risk index, a consequence index and their corresponding weights. The quantitative method consists of a probability assessment, a consequences analysis and a risk evaluation. The outcome of the qualitative method is a qualitative risk value, and for quantitative method the outcomes are individual risk and social risk. In comparison with previous research, the qualitative method proposed in this paper is particularly suitable for urban natural gas pipeline network, and the quantitative method takes different consequences of accidents into consideration, such as toxic gas diffusion, jet flame, fire ball combustion and UVCE. Two sample urban natural gas pipeline networks are used to demonstrate these two methods. It is indicated that both of the two methods can be applied to practical application, and the choice of the methods depends on the actual basic data of the gas pipelines and the precision requirements of risk assessment.

  8. Qualitative risk assessment for the 100-KR-4 groundwater operable unit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Biggerstaff, R.L.

    1994-06-30

    This report provides the qualitative risk assessment (QRA) for the 100-KR-4 groundwater operable unit at the US Department of Energy`s (DOE) Hanford Site in southeastern Washington State. The extent of the groundwater beneath the 100 K Area is defined in the Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study Work Plan for the 100-KR-4 Operable Unit (DOE-RL 1992a). The QRA is an evaluation or risk using a limited amount of data and a predefined set of human and environmental exposure scenarios and is not intended to replace or be a substitute for a baseline risk assessment.

  9. Qualitative risk assessment for the 100-HR-3 groundwater operable unit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vukelich, S.E. [Golder Associates, Inc., Richland, WA (United States)

    1994-09-22

    This report provides the qualitative risk assessment for the 100-HR-3 operable unit on the Hanford Reservation. 100-HR-3 is a ground water unit. The purpose of the QRA at the 100-HR-3 operable unit is to focus on a predefined set of human and environmental exposure scenarios in order to provides sufficient information that will assist the Tri-Party signatories (Washington State Department of Ecology, EPA and US DOE) in making defensible decisions on the necessity of Interim Remedial Measures. Frequent- and occasional-use exposure scenarios are evaluated in the human health risk assessment to provide bounding estimates of risk. The ecological risk assessment consists of an evaluation of the risks to riparian and aquatic receptors which live in or near the Columbia River.

  10. Qualitative Risk Assessment for an LNG Refueling Station and Review of Relevant Safety Issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Siu, N.; Herring, J.S.; Cadwallader, L.; Reece, W.; Byers, J.

    1998-02-01

    This report is a qualitative assessment of the public and worker risk involved with the operation of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) vehicle refueling facility. This study includes facility maintenance and operations, tank truck deliveries, and end-use vehicle fueling; it does not treat the risks of LNG vehicles on roadways. Accident initiating events are identified by using a Master Logic Diagram, a Failure Modes and Effects Analysis, and historical operating experiences. The event trees were drawn to depict possible sequences of mitigating events following the initiating events. The phenomenology of LNG and other vehicle fuels is discussed to characterize the hazard posed by LNG usage. Based on the risk modeling and analysis, recommendations are given to improve the safety of LNG refueling stations in the areas of procedures and training, station design, and the dissemination of ``best practice`` information throughout the LNG community.

  11. Interim qualitative risk assessment for an LNG refueling station and review of relevant safety issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Siu, N.; Herring, S.; Cadwallader, L.; Reece, W.; Byers, J.

    1997-07-01

    This report is a qualitative assessment of the public and worker risk involved with the operation of a liquefied natural (LNG) vehicle refueling facility. This study includes facility maintenance and operations, tanker truck delivers and end-use vehicle fueling; it does not treat the risks of LNG vehicles on roadways. Accident initiating events are identified by using a Master Logic Diagram, a Failure Modes and Effects analysis and historical operating experiences. The event trees were drawn to depict possible sequences of mitigating events following the initiating events. The phenomenology of LNG and other vehicle fuels is discussed to characterize the hazard posed by LNG usage. Based on the risk modeling and analysis, recommendations are given to improve the safety of LNG refueling stations in the areas of procedures and training, station design, and the dissemination of best practice information throughout the LNG community.

  12. Qualitative Assessment for Toxoplasma gondii Exposure Risk Associated with Meat Products in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Miao; Buchanan, Robert L; Dubey, Jitender P; Hill, Dolores E; Lambertini, Elisabetta; Ying, Yuqing; Gamble, H Ray; Jones, Jeffrey L; Pradhan, Abani K

    2015-12-01

    Toxoplasma gondii is a global protozoan parasite capable of infecting most warm-blooded animals. Although healthy adult humans generally have no symptoms, severe illness does occur in certain groups, including congenitally infected fetuses and newborns, immunocompromised individuals including transplant patients. Epidemiological studies have demonstrated that consumption of raw or undercooked meat products is one of the major sources of infection with T. gondii. The goal of this study was to develop a framework to qualitatively estimate the exposure risk to T. gondii from various meat products consumed in the United States. Risk estimates of various meats were analyzed by a farm-to-retail qualitative assessment that included evaluation of farm, abattoir, storage and transportation, meat processing, packaging, and retail modules. It was found that exposure risks associated with meats from free-range chickens, nonconfinement-raised pigs, goats, and lamb are higher than those from confinement-raised pigs, cattle, and caged chickens. For fresh meat products, risk at the retail level was similar to that at the farm level unless meats had been frozen or moisture enhanced. Our results showed that meat processing, such as salting, freezing, commercial hot air drying, long fermentation times, hot smoking, and cooking, are able to reduce T. gondii levels in meat products. whereas nitrite and/or nitrate, spice, low pH, and cold storage have no effect on the viability of T. gondii tissue cysts. Raw-fermented sausage, cured raw meat, meat that is not hot-air dried, and fresh processed meat were associated with higher exposure risks compared with cooked meat and frozen meat. This study provides a reference for meat management control programs to determine critical control points and serves as the foundation for future quantitative risk assessments.

  13. Cardiovascular risk assessment of South Asian populations in religious and community settings: a qualitative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eastwood, Sophie V; Rait, Greta; Bhattacharyya, Mimi; Nair, Devaki R; Walters, Kate

    2013-08-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of mortality, and South Asian groups experience worse outcomes than the general population in the UK. Regular screening for CVD risk factors is recommended, but we do not know the best settings in which to deliver this for ethnically diverse populations. Health promotion in religious and community settings may reduce inequalities in access to cardiovascular preventative health care. To use stakeholders' and attendees' experiences to explore the feasibility and potential impact of cardiovascular risk assessment targeting South Asian groups at religious and community venues and how health checks in these settings might compare with general practice assessments. Qualitative semi-structured interviews were used. The settings were two Hindu temples, one mosque and one Bangladeshi community centre in central and north-west London. Twenty-four participants (12 stakeholders and 12 attendees) were purposively selected for interview. Interviews were recorded and transcribed verbatim. Themes from the data were generated using thematic framework analysis. All attendees reported positive experiences of the assessments. All reported making lifestyle changes after the check, particularly to diet and exercise. Barriers to lifestyle change, e.g. resistance to change from family members, were identified. Advantages of implementing assessments in religious and community settings compared with general practice included accessibility and community encouragement. Disadvantages included reduced privacy, organizational difficulties and lack of follow-up care. Cardiovascular risk assessment in religious and community settings has the potential to trigger lifestyle change in younger participants. These venues should be considered for future health promotional activities.

  14. Genetic toxicology at the crossroads-from qualitative hazard evaluation to quantitative risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Paul A; Johnson, George E

    2016-05-01

    Applied genetic toxicology is undergoing a transition from qualitative hazard identification to quantitative dose-response analysis and risk assessment. To facilitate this change, the Health and Environmental Sciences Institute (HESI) Genetic Toxicology Technical Committee (GTTC) sponsored a workshop held in Lancaster, UK on July 10-11, 2014. The event included invited speakers from several institutions and the contents was divided into three themes-1: Point-of-departure Metrics for Quantitative Dose-Response Analysis in Genetic Toxicology; 2: Measurement and Estimation of Exposures for Better Extrapolation to Humans and 3: The Use of Quantitative Approaches in Genetic Toxicology for human health risk assessment (HHRA). A host of pertinent issues were discussed relating to the use of in vitro and in vivo dose-response data, the development of methods for in vitro to in vivo extrapolation and approaches to use in vivo dose-response data to determine human exposure limits for regulatory evaluations and decision-making. This Special Issue, which was inspired by the workshop, contains a series of papers that collectively address topics related to the aforementioned themes. The Issue includes contributions that collectively evaluate, describe and discuss in silico, in vitro, in vivo and statistical approaches that are facilitating the shift from qualitative hazard evaluation to quantitative risk assessment. The use and application of the benchmark dose approach was a central theme in many of the workshop presentations and discussions, and the Special Issue includes several contributions that outline novel applications for the analysis and interpretation of genetic toxicity data. Although the contents of the Special Issue constitutes an important step towards the adoption of quantitative methods for regulatory assessment of genetic toxicity, formal acceptance of quantitative methods for HHRA and regulatory decision-making will require consensus regarding the

  15. A qualitative ecological risk assessment of the invasive Nile tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus in a sub-tropical African river system (Limpopo River, South Africa)

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Zengeya, TA

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study outlines the development of a qualitative risk assessment method and its application as a screening tool for determining the risk of establishment and spread of the invasive Nile tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus (Linnaeus, 1758), within...

  16. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE METHODS IN RISK-BASED RELIABILITY ASSESSING UNDER EPISTEMIC UNCERTAINTY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Khalaj

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The overall objective of the reliability allocation is to increase the profitability of the operation and optimise the total life cycle cost without losses from failure issues. The methodology, called risk-based reliability (RBR, is based on integrating a reliability approach and a risk assessment strategy to obtain an optimum cost and acceptable risk. This assessment integrates reliability with the smaller losses from failures issues, and so can be used as a tool for decision-making. The approach to maximising reliability should be replaced with the risk-based reliability assessment approach, in which reliability planning, based on risk analysis, minimises the probability of system failure and its consequences. This paper proposes a new methodology for risk-based reliability under epistemic uncertainty, using possibility theory and probability theory. This methodology is used for a case study in order to determine the reliability and risk of production systems when the available data are insufficient, and to help make decisions.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die hoofdoelwit van betroubaarheidstoedeling is die verhoging van winsgewendheid van sisteemgebruik teen die agtergrond van optimum totale leeftydsikluskoste. Die metodologie genaamd “risikogebaseerde betroubaarheid” behels die bepaling van ’n risikoskatting om optimum koste te behaal vir ’n aanvaarbare risiko. Die navorsing stel vervolgens ’n nuwe ontledingsmetode voor vir epistemiese onsekerheid gebaseer op moontlikheids- en waarskynlikheidsleer. ’n Bypassende gevallestudie word aangebied.

  17. Qualitative risk assessment in a data-scarce environment: a model to assess the impact of control measures on spread of African Swine Fever.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wieland, Barbara; Dhollander, Sofie; Salman, Mo; Koenen, Frank

    2011-04-01

    In the absence of data, qualitative risk assessment frameworks have proved useful to assess risks associated with animal health diseases. As part of a scientific opinion for the European Commission (EC) on African Swine Fever (ASF), a working group of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) assessed the risk of ASF remaining endemic in Trans Caucasus Countries (TCC) and the Russian Federation (RF) and the risk of ASF becoming endemic in the EU if disease were introduced. The aim was to develop a tool to evaluate how current control or preventive measures mitigate the risk of spread and giving decision makers the means to review how strengthening of surveillance and control measures would mitigate the risk of disease spread. Based on a generic model outlining disease introduction, spread and endemicity in a region, the impact of risk mitigation measures on spread of disease was assessed for specific risk questions. The resulting hierarchical models consisted of key steps containing several sub-steps. For each step of the risk pathways risk estimates were determined by the expert group based on existing data or through expert opinion elicitation. Risk estimates were combined using two different combination matrices, one to combine estimates of independent steps and one to combine conditional probabilities. The qualitative risk assessment indicated a moderate risk that ASF will remain endemic in current affected areas in the TCC and RF and a high risk of spread to currently unaffected areas. If introduced into the EU, ASF is likely to be controlled effectively in the production sector with high or limited biosecurity. In the free range production sector, however, there is a moderate risk of ASF becoming endemic due to wild boar contact, non-compliance with animal movement bans, and difficult access to all individual pigs upon implementation of control measures. This study demonstrated the advantages of a systematic framework to assist an expert panel to carry out a

  18. Towards a better reliability of risk assessment: development of a qualitative & quantitative risk evaluation model (Q2REM) for different trades of construction works in Hong Kong.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fung, Ivan W H; Lo, Tommy Y; Tung, Karen C F

    2012-09-01

    Since the safety professionals are the key decision makers dealing with project safety and risk assessment in the construction industry, their perceptions of safety risk would directly affect the reliability of risk assessment. The safety professionals generally tend to heavily rely on their own past experiences to make subjective decisions on risk assessment without systematic decision making. Indeed, understanding of the underlying principles of risk assessment is significant. In this study, the qualitative analysis on the safety professionals' beliefs of risk assessment and their perceptions towards risk assessment, including their recognitions of possible accident causes, the degree of differentiations on their perceptions of risk levels of different trades of works, recognitions of the occurrence of different types of accidents, and their inter-relationships with safety performance in terms of accident rates will be explored in the Stage 1. At the second stage, the deficiencies of the current general practice for risk assessment can be sorted out firstly. Based on the findings from Stage 1 and the historical accident data from 15 large-scaled construction projects in 3-year average, a risk evaluation model prioritizing the risk levels of different trades of works and which cause different types of site accident due to various accident causes will be developed quantitatively. With the suggested systematic accident recording techniques, this model can be implemented in the construction industry at both project level and organizational level. The model (Q(2)REM) not only act as a useful supplementary guideline of risk assessment for the construction safety professionals, but also assists them to pinpoint the potential risks on site for the construction workers under respective trades of works through safety trainings and education. It, in turn, arouses their awareness on safety risk. As the Q(2)REM can clearly show the potential accident causes leading to

  19. 78 FR 3824 - Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Food Combinations for Activities (Outside...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-16

    ....htm . 2. Codex Alimentarius Commission, ``Codex Alimentarius Commission Procedural Manual, Twentieth... foods within the scope of the draft RA (Ref. 1). We followed the risk assessment framework of the Codex Alimentarius Commission (Ref. 2), which involves hazard identification, hazard characterization,...

  20. Estimating distributions out of qualitative and (semi)quantitative microbiological contamination data for use in risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busschaert, P; Geeraerd, A H; Uyttendaele, M; Van Impe, J F

    2010-04-15

    A framework using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is used to fit a probability distribution to a set of qualitative (e.g., absence in 25 g), semi-quantitative (e.g., presence in 25 g and absence in 1g) and/or quantitative test results (e.g., 10 CFU/g). Uncertainty about the parameters of the variability distribution is characterized through a non-parametric bootstrapping method. The resulting distribution function can be used as an input for a second order Monte Carlo simulation in quantitative risk assessment. As an illustration, the method is applied to two sets of in silico generated data. It is demonstrated that correct interpretation of data results in an accurate representation of the contamination level distribution. Subsequently, two case studies are analyzed, namely (i) quantitative analyses of Campylobacter spp. in food samples with nondetects, and (ii) combined quantitative, qualitative, semiquantitative analyses and nondetects of Listeria monocytogenes in smoked fish samples. The first of these case studies is also used to illustrate what the influence is of the limit of quantification, measurement error, and the number of samples included in the data set. Application of these techniques offers a way for meta-analysis of the many relevant yet diverse data sets that are available in literature and (inter)national reports of surveillance or baseline surveys, therefore increases the information input of a risk assessment and, by consequence, the correctness of the outcome of the risk assessment.

  1. A Qualitative Assessment of the Risk of Introducing Peste des Petits Ruminants into Northern Zambia from Tanzania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Chazya

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A qualitative risk assessment was performed to evaluate the risk of introducing Peste des petits ruminants virus into northern Zambia from Tanzania via live goat trade. Data was collected during a mission to Tanzania and northern Zambia and also from literature and interviews with experts. The risk of PPRV introduction was evaluated as a function of the probability of hazard (PPRV release, exposure of susceptible hosts, and the consequences of spread using the following parameters: prevalence of infection, volume of trade, C-ELISA and quarantine screening missing an infected animal, PPRV viability (remaining infective in transit, and the virus potential for infection. The magnitude of the consequences was derived from the probability of transmission and spread and the impact of PPRV introduction and establishment. Accordingly, the probability of occurrence of PPRV in northern Zambia from Tanzania was rated as “high” and the economic consequences were also rated as “high.” Finally, the overall risk of introducing PPRV into northern Zambia from Tanzania at the time of the assessment was rated “high.” It was concluded that import of goats and sheep be prohibited until efficient and adequate measures to reduce the risk have been put in place.

  2. When Are Qualitative Testing Results Sufficient To Predict a Reduction in Illnesses in a Microbiological Food Safety Risk Assessment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebel, Eric D; Williams, Michael S

    2015-08-01

    Process models that include the myriad pathways that pathogen-contaminated food may traverse before consumption and the dose-response function to relate exposure to likelihood of illness may represent a "gold standard" for quantitative microbial risk assessment. Nevertheless, simplifications that rely on measuring the change in contamination occurrence of a raw food at the end of production may provide reasonable approximations of the effects measured by a process model. In this study, we parameterized three process models representing different product-pathogen pairs (i.e., chicken-Salmonella, chicken-Campylobacter, and beef-E. coli O157:H7) to compare with predictions based on qualitative testing of the raw product before consideration of mixing, partitioning, growth, attenuation, or dose-response processes. The results reveal that reductions in prevalence generated from qualitative testing of raw finished product usually underestimate the reduction in likelihood of illness for a population of consumers. Qualitative microbial testing results depend on the test's limit of detection. The negative bias is greater for limits of detection that are closer to the center of the contamination distribution and becomes less as the limit of detection is moved further into the right tail of the distribution. Nevertheless, a positive bias can result when the limit of detection refers to very high contamination levels. Changes in these high levels translate to larger consumed doses for which the slope of the dose-response function is smaller compared with the larger slope associated with smaller doses. Consequently, in these cases, a proportional reduction in prevalence of contamination results in a less than proportional reduction in probability of illness. The magnitudes of the biases are generally less for nonscalar (versus scalar) adjustments to the distribution.

  3. Evaluating the Control Banding Nanotool: a qualitative risk assessment method for controlling nanoparticle exposures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zalk, D.M.; Paik, S.Y.; Swuste, P.

    2009-01-01

    Control banding (CB) strategies offer simplified processes for controlling worker exposures in the absence of firm toxicological and exposure information. The nanotechnology industry is an excellent candidate for applying such strategies with overwhelming uncertainties of work-related health risks

  4. Assessing Differences in Risk Perceptions About Obesity Among "Normal-Weight" and "Overweight" Adolescents--A Qualitative Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavaravarapu, SubbaRao M; Rao, K Mallikarjuna; Nagalla, Balakrishna; Avula, Laxmaiah

    2015-01-01

    To assess the differences in risk perceptions of overweight/obese and normal-weight adolescents about obesity and associated risk factors. Qualitative study using focus group discussions (FGDs). Five randomly selected schools from the South Indian city of Hyderabad. Seventy-nine adolescents (ages 11-14 years) participated in 10 FGDs (5 each with overweight/obese and normal-weight groups). Whether obesity-related risk perceptions differ with actual weight status or not. FGDs were recorded, transcribed, and manually coded for thematic analysis. Results were presented according to 6 themes. At each stage of coding and analysis, reports were read independently by 2-3 researchers and the inter-coder reliability was high (ratio of number of agreements against the sum of agreements plus disagreements was over 90%). Adolescents across the groups had limited understanding of nutrition during adolescence as well as causes and consequences of obesity. The optimistic bias that they were less vulnerable compared to others to the risks of obesity was evident from perceptions of overweight groups. While overweight adolescents argued that obesity was hereditary, the normal-weight participants perceived "faulty food habits" and laziness as the reasons. Adolescents across the groups considered fruits and vegetables as healthy foods. There were clear differences in perceptions of adolescents of different weight status. Employing the risk perception analysis framework, this study identified the following adolescent traits: responsive, avoidance, and indifference, which may be useful for developing nutrition communication programs. Copyright © 2015 Society for Nutrition Education and Behavior. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Evaluating the Control Banding Nanotool: a qualitative risk assessment method for controlling nanoparticle exposures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zalk, D.M.; Paik, S.Y.; Swuste, P.

    2009-01-01

    Control banding (CB) strategies offer simplified processes for controlling worker exposures in the absence of firm toxicological and exposure information. The nanotechnology industry is an excellent candidate for applying such strategies with overwhelming uncertainties of work-related health risks p

  6. Evaluating the Control Banding Nanotool: a qualitative risk assessment method for controlling nanoparticle exposures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zalk, D.M.; Paik, S.Y.; Swuste, P.

    2009-01-01

    Control banding (CB) strategies offer simplified processes for controlling worker exposures in the absence of firm toxicological and exposure information. The nanotechnology industry is an excellent candidate for applying such strategies with overwhelming uncertainties of work-related health risks p

  7. 78 FR 78063 - Appendix 4 to Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Food Combinations for...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-24

    ... analysis of those foods whose production would be considered low risk with respect to the risk of intentional adulteration caused by acts of terrorism. The appendix supplements the science-based risk analysis... Act for human food with respect to hazards other than intentional adulteration (78 FR 3646). Elsewhere...

  8. Lack of patient risk counselling and a broader provider training affect malaria control in remote Somalia Kenya border: Qualitative assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asgary, Ramin; Grigoryan, Zoya; Naderi, Ramesh; Allan, Richard

    2012-01-01

    Effectiveness of providing health education solely via mass media and the providers' targeted training in malaria control needs further exploration. During pre-epidemic season, we conducted a qualitative study of 40 providers and community leaders using focus groups, comprehensive semi-structured interviews and consultation observations. Interviews were transcribed, coded and analysed for major themes. Community leaders believe that they can acquire malaria from contaminated water, animal products, air or garbage. Consequently, they under-utilise bed nets and other protective measures due to perceived continued exposure to other potential malaria sources. Practitioners do not provide individualised health counselling and risk assessment to patients during sick visits, leading to a range of misconceptions about malaria based on limited knowledge from rumours and mass media, and a strong belief in the curative power of traditional medicine. Providers overdiagnose malaria clinically and underutilise available tests due to time constraints, and the lack of training and resources to correctly diagnose other illnesses. Subsequently, misdiagnoses lead them to question the efficacy of recommended treatments. Promoting counselling during clinical encounters to address patient misconception and change risky behaviour is warranted. Wider-ranging ongoing training could enable providers to properly diagnose and manage differential diagnoses to manage malaria better.

  9. 78 FR 64428 - Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Animal Food Combinations for Activities...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-29

    ... assessment framework of the Codex Alimentarius Commission (Ref. 2), which involves hazard identification.../UCM366906.pdf . 2. Codex Alimentarius Commission, ``Codex Alimentarius Commission Procedural...

  10. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107......). All patients were assessed for risk of future violence utilizing a structured professional judgment model: the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20) violence risk assessment scheme. After a follow-up period of 5.6 years, recidivism outcome were obtained from the Danish National Crime...... predictive of violent recidivism compared to static items. In sum, the findings support the use of structured professional judgment models of risk assessment and in particular the HCR-20 violence risk assessment scheme. Findings regarding the importance of the (clinical) structured final risk judgment...

  11. Qualitative Assessment of Arts Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stake, Robert; Munson, April

    2008-01-01

    Exploring the complicated issues of assessment in the arts, the authors discuss assessment of arts education and arts programs from a qualitative perspective: experiential, naturalistic, and ethnographic interpretation. With special attention to the practices of teaching, learning, and administration of education in the arts, quality is sought…

  12. Risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gittus, J.H.

    1986-03-01

    The article deals with the calculation of risks, as applied to living near to a) a nuclear reactor or b) an industrial complex. The application of risk assessment techniques to the pressurised water reactor (PWR) is discussed with respect to: containment, frequencies of degraded core accidents, release of radioisotopes, consequences and risk to society, and uncertainties. The risk assessment for an industrial complex concerns the work of the Safety and Reliability Directorate for the chemical complex on Canvey Island. (U.K.).

  13. Learning from returnee Ethiopian migrant domestic workers: a qualitative assessment to reduce the risk of human trafficking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busza, Joanna; Teferra, Sehin; Omer, Serawit; Zimmerman, Cathy

    2017-09-11

    International migration has become a global political priority, with growing concern about the scale of human trafficking, hazardous work conditions, and resulting psychological and physical morbidity among migrants. Ethiopia remains a significant "source" country for female domestic workers to the Middle East and Gulf States, despite widespread reports of exploitation and abuse. Prior to introduction of a "safe migration" intervention, we conducted formative research to elicit lessons learned by women who had worked as domestic workers abroad. The aim of the study was to identify realistic measures future migrants could take to protect themselves, based on the collective insights and experience of returnees. We conducted a qualitative assessment among returnee domestic labour migrants in Amhara Region, Ethiopia, an area considered a "hotspot" for outmigration. We conducted in-depth interviews and focus group discussions with a total of 35 female returnees, exploring risk and protective factors experienced by Ethiopian women during domestic work abroad. We used thematic content analysis to identify practical messages that could improve prospective migrants' preparedness. Returnees described the knowledge and skills they acquired prior to departure and during migration, and shared advice they would give to prospective migrants in their community. Facilitators of positive migration included conforming to cultural and behavioural expectations, learning basic Arabic, using household appliances, and ensuring safety in employers' homes. Respondents also associated confidence and assertiveness with better treatment and respect, and emphasized the importance of access to external communication (e.g. a mobile phone, local sim card, and contact details) for help in an emergency. Following their own challenging or even traumatic experiences, returnees were keen to support resilience among the next wave of migrants. There is little evidence on practices that foster safer

  14. A qualitative risk assessment of factors contributing to foot and mouth disease outbreaks in cattle along the western boundary of the Kruger National Park.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jori, F; Vosloo, W; Du Plessis, B; Bengis, R; Brahmbhatt, D; Gummow, B; Thomson, G R

    2009-12-01

    Between November 2000 and the end of 2007, five outbreaks of foot and mouth disease (FMD) occurred in cattle in the area adjacentto the Kruger National Park (KNP) in the north-eastern corner of South Africa. To help understand the factors behind these outbreaks a qualitative risk assessment based on the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) assessment framework was adopted, using available data from published sources and various unpublished South African sources. Risk was assessed on the basis of the following factors: data on South African Territories (SAT) type infections of buffalo and impala in the KNP, permeability of the fence along the western boundary of the KNP, the potential for contact between livestock and wildlife susceptible to FMD in areas adjacent to the KNP, and the level of herd immunity in cattle generated by prophylactic vaccination. Scenario pathways for FMD occurrence outside the KNP are presented as a conceptual framework to qualitatively assess the risk of FMD outbreaks. Factors that are likely to have most influence on the risk were identified: fence permeability, vaccination coverage, or the efficiency of animal movement control measures. The method and results are provided as an approach that may be used as a basis to evaluate the risk of FMD outbreaks occurring in other wildlife/livestock interface areas of southern Africa.

  15. A qualitative study assessing cardiovascular risk factors: the accumulative stressors influencing societal integration of teenage African immigrants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zlotnick, Cheryl; Goldblatt, Hadass; Shadmi, Efrat; Birenbaum-Carmeli, Daphna; Taychaw, Omer

    2015-08-15

    This study examines the nature of disparities in cardiovascular risk by exploring chronic stressors and other cardiovascular risk factors on youth of African descent who are integrating into an industrialized society. Qualitative data on cardiovascular risk and acclimation to the dominant society were collected from three groups of key informants: (1) community leaders; (2) youth; and (3) a community advisory group. Youth of Ethiopian descent engaged in the same western diets, computerized social networking, and habits in smoking and alcohol use as did youth from the dominant society. However, informants of Ethiopian descent encountered and witnessed racism, institutional discrimination and evidence of devaluing Ethiopian culture, influencing youths' ability to integrate into the society. Immigrant youth of Ethiopian descent face an accumulation of conflicting social support, psychosocial factors, and stressors, including: living in low-income, high-crime areas; encountering pervasive discrimination; acclimating to a new and industrialized culture; and navigating within an often unhospitable society. Contributing to these factors are changes in health behaviors such as adding processed foods and sugary drinks to the diet, increasing heavy alcohol use and substituting screen use for physical activity. The accumulative impact of these factors contributes to the marginalization of youth of Ethiopian descent in the dominant society and perpetuates a cycle of increasing cardiovascular risk.

  16. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoornstra, E; Notermans, S

    2001-05-21

    The production of safe food is being increasingly based on the use of risk analysis, and this process is now in use to establish national and international food safety objectives. It is also being used more frequently to guarantee that safety objectives are met and that such guarantees are achieved in a cost-effective manner. One part of the overall risk analysis procedure-risk assessment-is the scientific process in which the hazards and risk factors are identified, and the risk estimate or risk profile is determined. Risk assessment is an especially important tool for governments when food safety objectives have to be developed in the case of 'new' contaminants in known products or known contaminants causing trouble in 'new' products. Risk assessment is also an important approach for food companies (i) during product development, (ii) during (hygienic) process optimalization, and (iii) as an extension (validation) of the more qualitative HACCP-plan. This paper discusses these two different types of risk assessment, and uses probability distribution functions to assess the risks posed by Escherichia coli O157:H7 in each case. Such approaches are essential elements of risk management, as they draw on all available information to derive accurate and realistic estimations of the risk posed. The paper also discusses the potential of scenario-analysis in simulating the impact of different or modified risk factors during the consideration of new or improved control measures.

  17. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  18. Qualitative Future Safety Risk Identification an Update

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barr, Lawrence C.

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to document the results of a high-level qualitative study that was conducted to identify future aviation safety risks and to assess the potential impacts to the National Airspace System (NAS) of NASA Aviation Safety research on these risks. Multiple external sources (for example, the National Transportation Safety Board, the Flight Safety Foundation, the National Research Council, and the Joint Planning and Development Office) were used to develop a compilation of future safety issues risks, also referred to as future tall poles. The primary criterion used to identify the most critical future safety risk issues was that the issue must be cited in several of these sources as a safety area of concern. The tall poles in future safety risk, in no particular order of importance, are as follows: Runway Safety, Loss of Control In Flight, Icing Ice Detection, Loss of Separation, Near Midair Collision Human Fatigue, Increasing Complexity and Reliance on Automation, Vulnerability Discovery, Data Sharing and Dissemination, and Enhanced Survivability in the Event of an Accident.

  19. Quantitative and Qualitative Assessment of Soil Erosion Risk in Małopolska (Poland), Supported by an Object-Based Analysis of High-Resolution Satellite Images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drzewiecki, Wojciech; Wężyk, Piotr; Pierzchalski, Marcin; Szafrańska, Beata

    2014-06-01

    In 2011 the Marshal Office of Małopolska Voivodeship decided to evaluate the vulnerability of soils to water erosion for the entire region. The quantitative and qualitative assessment of the erosion risk for the soils of the Małopolska region was done based on the USLE approach. The special work-flow of geoinformation technologies was used to fulfil this goal. A high-resolution soil map, together with rainfall data, a detailed digital elevation model and statistical information about areas sown with particular crops created the input information for erosion modelling in GIS environment. The satellite remote sensing technology and the object-based image analysis (OBIA) approach gave valuable support to this study. RapidEye satellite images were used to obtain the essential up-to-date data about land use and vegetation cover for the entire region (15,000 km2). The application of OBIA also led to defining the direction of field cultivation and the mapping of contour tillage areas. As a result, the spatially differentiated values of erosion control practice factor were used. Both, the potential and the actual soil erosion risk were assessed quantificatively and qualitatively. The results of the erosion assessment in the Małopolska Voivodeship reveal the fact that a majority of its agricultural lands is characterized by moderate or low erosion risk levels. However, high-resolution erosion risk maps show its substantial spatial diversity. According to our study, average or higher actual erosion intensity levels occur for 10.6 % of agricultural land, i.e. 3.6 % of the entire voivodeship area. In 20 % of the municipalities there is a very urgent demand for erosion control. In the next 23 % an urgent erosion control is needed. Our study showed that even a slight improvement of P-factor estimation may have an influence on modeling results. In our case, despite a marginal change of erosion assessment figures on a regional scale, the influence on the final prioritization of

  20. Tools for microbiological risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Bassett, J; Nauta, M; Lindqvist, R.; Zwietering, M. H.

    2012-01-01

    Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute ...

  1. 中国猪瘟发生风险定性评估%Qualitative Risk Assessment of Classical Swine Fever Qutbreak in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    姚文生; 范学政; 王琴; 宁宜宝

    2011-01-01

    为定性评估中国猪瘟发生风险,本研究通过收集整理国内外猪瘟研究资料,运用动物疫病风险分析方法对猪瘟病原特性、传染源、传播途径、易感动物和已采取防控措施效果5个主要风险因素进行定性分析.风险评估认为目前全国范围均0存在猪瘟发生风险,由于实施了猪瘟强制免疫政策,猪群均存在一定的免疫抗体,因此猪瘟大规模流行几率很低,但点状散发流行几率较高.现阶段疫苗免疫仍是中国防控猪瘟的重要手段.%For qualitative risk assessment of classical swine fever(CSF) outbreak in China,this study used the risk analysis method of animal disease to qualitative analyze the pathogenic characteristics, infection sources, transmission patterns, susceptible animals, the effect of prevention and control measures of CSF in China, by analyzing domestic and foreign data of CSF. The results indicated that the outbreak risk of CSF was existing across the country. Due to the implementation of the compulsory vaccination policy, the probability of CSF pandemic is very low, but the local and spotting outbreak is high risk in China. Vaccination is still important to prevent and control CSF at this stage.

  2. HIV risk among MSM in Senegal: a qualitative rapid assessment of the impact of enforcing laws that criminalize same sex practices.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tonia Poteat

    Full Text Available Men who have sex with men (MSM are at high risk for HIV in Senegal, with a prevalence of 21.5%. In December 2008, nine male HIV prevention workers were imprisoned for "acts against nature" prohibited by Senegalese law. This qualitative study assessed the impact of these arrests on HIV prevention efforts. A purposive sample of MSM in six regions of Senegal was recruited by network referral. 26 in-depth interviews (IDIs and 6 focus group discussions (FGDs were conducted in July-August 2009. 14 key informants were also interviewed. All participants reported pervasive fear and hiding among MSM as a result of the December 2008 arrests and publicity. Service providers suspended HIV prevention work with MSM out of fear for their own safety. Those who continued to provide services noticed a sharp decline in MSM participation. An effective response to the HIV epidemic in Senegal should include active work to decrease enforcement of this law.

  3. Qualitative assessment of general movements in high-risk preterm infants with chronic lung disease requiring dexamethasone therapy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bos, AF; Martijn, A; van Asperen, RM; Hadders-Algra, M; Okken, A; Prechtl, HFR

    1998-01-01

    Objective: The objective of this study was to determine in preterm infants al risk for severe chronic lung disease (1) the quality of general movements (GMs) and (2) the effect of dexamethasone treatment on spontaneous motor activity. Study design: In 15 very low birth weight infants the quality of

  4. Risk assessment and risk management in managed aquifer recharge

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Page, D

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This chapter presents the methodologies used for risk assessment and risk management in MAR in Australia and the European Union, qualitative and quantitative approaches adopted within the RECLAIM Water project and case studies where the outcomes...

  5. Corporate qualitative and quantitative assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria – Monica Haralambie

    2016-08-01

    After the financial crisis, two key concerns have been raised regarding banks’ activities: “too little, too late” provisioning for loan losses and “too big to fail”. The credit risk management subject became not only a compliance exercise for banks, but also a key item considered when establishing the strategy and execution path. Our intention within this paper is to discuss some of the specific issues related to credit risk management, considered by commercial banks when analysing a corporate client. The result of this research is a web application named CISS (Credit Institution Scoring System, which represents a proof of concept for a bank credit scoring system. The application was developed using HTML + MySQL + PHP solutions.

  6. Enhancing Institutional Assessment Efforts through Qualitative Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Note Chism, Nancy; Banta, Trudy W.

    2007-01-01

    Qualitative methods can do much to describe context and illuminate the why behind patterns encountered in institutional assessment. Alone, or in combination with quantitative methods, they should be the approach of choice for many of the most important assessment questions. (Contains 1 table.)

  7. Enhancing Institutional Assessment Efforts through Qualitative Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Note Chism, Nancy; Banta, Trudy W.

    2007-01-01

    Qualitative methods can do much to describe context and illuminate the why behind patterns encountered in institutional assessment. Alone, or in combination with quantitative methods, they should be the approach of choice for many of the most important assessment questions. (Contains 1 table.)

  8. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  9. Scoring methods and results for qualitative evaluation of public health impacts from the Hanford high-level waste tanks. Integrated Risk Assessment Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buck, J.W.; Gelston, G.M.; Farris, W.T.

    1995-09-01

    The objective of this analysis is to qualitatively rank the Hanford Site high-level waste (HLW) tanks according to their potential public health impacts through various (groundwater, surface water, and atmospheric) exposure pathways. Data from all 149 single-shell tanks (SSTs) and 23 of the 28 double-shell tanks (DSTs) in the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Program were analyzed for chemical and radiological carcinogenic as well as chemical noncarcinogenic health impacts. The preliminary aggregate score (PAS) ranking system was used to generate information from various release scenarios. Results based on the PAS ranking values should be considered relative health impacts rather than absolute risk values.

  10. Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

    Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...

  11. Decision-making and risk-assessment in living liver donation: how informed is the informed consent of donors? A qualitative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papachristou, Christina; Walter, Marc; Marc, Walter; Frommer, Joerg; Frommer, Jeorg; Klapp, Burghard F

    2010-01-01

    The practice of living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) has been increasing over the past 20 years. In LDLT, a healthy individual offers a substantial part of his or her liver (up to 60%) for the benefit of a terminally-ill recipient. The aim of the study was to identify decision-making and risk-assessment patterns of living liver donors and assess whether the principles of informed consent and decision autonomy are being met. The authors conducted semistructured clinical interviews with 28 donors before transplantation. The authors found that a decision was being reached before a decision-making process could take place. Surgery risks were perceived and processed in different ways, including the factors of risk-awareness, denial, limited acceptance, and fatalism. The authors assess concepts of informed consent and decision autonomy in LDLT, and offer suggestions for donor selection.

  12. Issues in qualitative and quantitative risk analysis for developmental toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimmel, C A; Gaylor, D W

    1988-03-01

    The qualitative and quantitative evaluation of risk in developmental toxicology has been discussed in several recent publications. A number of issues still are to be resolved in this area. The qualitative evaluation and interpretation of end points in developmental toxicology depends on an understanding of the biological events leading to the end points observed, the relationships among end points, and their relationship to dose and to maternal toxicity. The interpretation of these end points is also affected by the statistical power of the experiments used for detecting the various end points observed. The quantitative risk assessment attempts to estimate human risk for developmental toxicity as a function of dose. The current approach is to apply safety (uncertainty) factors to the no observed effect level (NOEL). An alternative presented and discussed here is to model the experimental data and apply a safety factor to an estimated risk level to achieve an "acceptable" level of risk. In cases where the dose-response curves upward, this approach provides a conservative estimate of risk. This procedure does not preclude the existence of a threshold dose. More research is needed to develop appropriate dose-response models that can provide better estimates for low-dose extrapolation of developmental effects.

  13. Pipeline risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kariyawasam, S. [TransCanada PipeLines Ltd., Calgary, AB (Canada); Weir, D. [Enbridge Pipelines Inc., Calgary, AB (Canada)] (comps.)

    2009-07-01

    Risk assessments and risk analysis are system-wide activities that include site-specific risk and reliability-based decision-making, implementation, and monitoring. This working group discussed the risk management process in the pipeline industry, including reliability-based integrity management and risk control processes. Attendants at the group discussed reliability-based decision support and performance measurements designed to support corporate risk management policies. New developments and technologies designed to optimize risk management procedures were also presented. The group was divided into 3 sessions: (1) current practice, strengths and limitations of system-wide risk assessments for facility assets; (2) accounting for uncertainties to assure safety; and (3) reliability based excavation repair criteria and removing potentially unsafe corrosion defects. Presentations of risk assessment procedures used at various companies were given. The role of regulators, best practices, and effective networking environments in ensuring the success of risk assessment policies was discussed. Risk assessment models were also reviewed.

  14. Probabilities and health risks: a qualitative approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heyman, B; Henriksen, M; Maughan, K

    1998-11-01

    Health risks, defined in terms of the probability that an individual will suffer a particular type of adverse health event within a given time period, can be understood as referencing either natural entities or complex patterns of belief which incorporate the observer's values and knowledge, the position adopted in the present paper. The subjectivity inherent in judgements about adversity and time frames can be easily recognised, but social scientists have tended to accept uncritically the objectivity of probability. Most commonly in health risk analysis, the term probability refers to rates established by induction, and so requires the definition of a numerator and denominator. Depending upon their specification, many probabilities may be reasonably postulated for the same event, and individuals may change their risks by deciding to seek or avoid information. These apparent absurdities can be understood if probability is conceptualised as the projection of expectation onto the external world. Probabilities based on induction from observed frequencies provide glimpses of the future at the price of acceptance of the simplifying heuristic that statistics derived from aggregate groups can be validly attributed to individuals within them. The paper illustrates four implications of this conceptualisation of probability with qualitative data from a variety of sources, particularly a study of genetic counselling for pregnant women in a U.K. hospital. Firstly, the official selection of a specific probability heuristic reflects organisational constraints and values as well as predictive optimisation. Secondly, professionals and service users must work to maintain the facticity of an established heuristic in the face of alternatives. Thirdly, individuals, both lay and professional, manage probabilistic information in ways which support their strategic objectives. Fourthly, predictively sub-optimum schema, for example the idea of AIDS as a gay plague, may be selected because

  15. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  16. GM Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  17. Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

  18. Peer Education: Participatory Qualitative Educational Needs Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Djalalinia, Shirin; Ramezani Tehrani, Fahimeh; Malekafzali, Hossein; Peykari, Niloofar

    2013-12-01

    In the area of youth health, peers education is an approach to health promotion. Assess the training needs of peers educators clarifies the components, values, and quality of training protocols. Aim to that we conducted a participatory educational needs assessment of youth peer educators. Involving youth and key informants in direct collaboration with research team, a qualitative approach was planned based on grounded theory. For data collection a semi-structured guide questioning was designed. Sixteen focus group discussions and 8 in depth interview were held. The majority of participants emphasized on the importance of mental health, life skills, AIDS prevention, contraception methods, and healthy nutrition as the main training topics. They were extremely interested into the comprehensive educational material among their participatory role in peer programs. The training programs should be well defined based on the knowledge, skills and behavior of peers. During the implementation, training programs should be followed to meet the ongoing educational needs of service providers.

  19. Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  20. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  1. Offshore risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2014-01-01

      Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

  2. Quantitative, Qualitative and Geospatial Methods to Characterize HIV Risk Environments.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erin E Conners

    Full Text Available Increasingly, 'place', including physical and geographical characteristics as well as social meanings, is recognized as an important factor driving individual and community health risks. This is especially true among marginalized populations in low and middle income countries (LMIC, whose environments may also be more difficult to study using traditional methods. In the NIH-funded longitudinal study Mapa de Salud, we employed a novel approach to exploring the risk environment of female sex workers (FSWs in two Mexico/U.S. border cities, Tijuana and Ciudad Juárez. In this paper we describe the development, implementation, and feasibility of a mix of quantitative and qualitative tools used to capture the HIV risk environments of FSWs in an LMIC setting. The methods were: 1 Participatory mapping; 2 Quantitative interviews; 3 Sex work venue field observation; 4 Time-location-activity diaries; 5 In-depth interviews about daily activity spaces. We found that the mixed-methodology outlined was both feasible to implement and acceptable to participants. These methods can generate geospatial data to assess the role of the environment on drug and sexual risk behaviors among high risk populations. Additionally, the adaptation of existing methods for marginalized populations in resource constrained contexts provides new opportunities for informing public health interventions.

  3. Quantitative, Qualitative and Geospatial Methods to Characterize HIV Risk Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conners, Erin E.; West, Brooke S.; Roth, Alexis M.; Meckel-Parker, Kristen G.; Kwan, Mei-Po; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos; Staines-Orozco, Hugo; Clapp, John D.; Brouwer, Kimberly C.

    2016-01-01

    Increasingly, ‘place’, including physical and geographical characteristics as well as social meanings, is recognized as an important factor driving individual and community health risks. This is especially true among marginalized populations in low and middle income countries (LMIC), whose environments may also be more difficult to study using traditional methods. In the NIH-funded longitudinal study Mapa de Salud, we employed a novel approach to exploring the risk environment of female sex workers (FSWs) in two Mexico/U.S. border cities, Tijuana and Ciudad Juárez. In this paper we describe the development, implementation, and feasibility of a mix of quantitative and qualitative tools used to capture the HIV risk environments of FSWs in an LMIC setting. The methods were: 1) Participatory mapping; 2) Quantitative interviews; 3) Sex work venue field observation; 4) Time-location-activity diaries; 5) In-depth interviews about daily activity spaces. We found that the mixed-methodology outlined was both feasible to implement and acceptable to participants. These methods can generate geospatial data to assess the role of the environment on drug and sexual risk behaviors among high risk populations. Additionally, the adaptation of existing methods for marginalized populations in resource constrained contexts provides new opportunities for informing public health interventions. PMID:27191846

  4. "There Are No Known Benefits . . .": Considering the Risk/Benefit Ratio of Qualitative Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Opsal, Tara; Wolgemuth, Jennifer; Cross, Jennifer; Kaanta, Tanya; Dickmann, Ellyn; Colomer, Soria; Erdil-Moody, Zeynep

    2016-07-01

    Institutional review boards (IRBs) are responsible for weighing the risks and benefits of research participation. Qualitative researchers note numerous instances where IRB ethical frameworks fail to align with the ethics of their research projects and point out that IRB understandings of the benefits and risks of research often differ from those of the participants they seek to protect. This qualitative cross-case research investigates participants' interview experiences in six qualitative studies that differed in their methods, subject of focus, and populations. Our findings indicate that contemporary IRBs' use of population "vulnerability" and topic "sensitivity" to assess project risk does not adequately determine the benefits, risks, or ethicality of research. We recommend that IRBs treat as real the evidence for benefits in qualitative research, recognize that sensitivity and vulnerability do not predict risk, and encourage researchers to attend to relationships in their projects.

  5. Information Risk Management: Qualitative or Quantitative? Cross industry lessons from medical and financial fields

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Upasna Saluja

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Enterprises across the world are taking a hard look at their risk management practices. A number of qualitative and quantitative models and approaches are employed by risk practitioners to keep risk under check. As a norm most organizations end up choosing the more flexible, easier to deploy and customize qualitative models of risk assessment. In practice one sees that such models often call upon the practitioners to make qualitative judgments on a relative rating scale which brings in considerable room for errors, biases and subjectivity. On the other hand under the quantitative risk analysis approach, estimation of risk is connected with application of numerical measures of some kind. Medical risk management models lend themselves as ideal candidates for deriving lessons for Information Security Risk Management. We can use this considerably developed understanding of risk management from the medical field especially Survival Analysis towards handling risks that information infrastructures face. Similarly, financial risk management discipline prides itself on perhaps the most quantifiable of models in risk management. Market Risk and Credit Risk Information Security Risk Management can make risk measurement more objective and quantitative by referring to the approach of Credit Risk. During the recent financial crisis many investors and financial institutions lost money or went bankrupt respectively, because they did not apply the basic principles of risk management. Learning from the financial crisis provides some valuable lessons for information risk management.

  6. Information Risk Management: Qualitative or Quantitative? Cross industry lessons from medical and financial fields

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Upasna Saluja

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Enterprises across the world are taking a hard look at their risk management practices. A number of qualitative and quantitative models and approaches are employed by risk practitioners to keep risk under check. As a norm most organizations end up choosing the more flexible, easier to deploy and customize qualitative models of risk assessment. In practice one sees that such models often call upon the practitioners to make qualitative judgments on a relative rating scale which brings in considerable room for errors, biases and subjectivity. On the other hand under the quantitative risk analysis approach, estimation of risk is connected with application of numerical measures of some kind. Medical risk management models lend themselves as ideal candidates for deriving lessons for Information Security Risk Management. We can use this considerably developed understanding of risk management from the medical field especially Survival Analysis towards handling risks that information infrastructures face. Similarly, financial risk management discipline prides itself on perhaps the most quantifiable of models in risk management. Market Risk and Credit Risk Information Security Risk Management can make risk measurement more objective and quantitative by referring to the approach of Credit Risk. During the recent financial crisis many investors and financial institutions lost money or went bankrupt respectively, because they did not apply the basic principles of risk management. Learning from the financial crisis provides some valuable lessons for information risk management.

  7. An IOT Security Risk Autonomic Assessment Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhengchao Ma

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available In terms of Internet of Things (IOT system with the possibility criterion of fuzziness and randomness security risk, we qualitatively analyze the security risk level of IOT security scene by describing generalization metrics the potential impact and likelihood of occurrence of every major threat scenarios. On this basis, we proposed self-assessment algorithm of IOT security risk, adopting three-dimensional normal cloud model integrated consideration of risk indicators, researching the multi-rule mapping relationship between the qualitative input of safety indicators and the quantitative reasoning of self-assessment. Finally, we build security risk assessment simulation platform, and verify the validity and accuracy of the algorithm in the premise of substantiating the risk level and the safety criterion domain.

  8. Peer Education: Participatory Qualitative Educational Needs Assessment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shirin Djalalinia

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In the area of youth health, peers education is an approach to health promotion. Assess the training needs of peers educators clarifies the components, values, and quality of training protocols. Aim to that we conducted a participatory educational needs assessment of youth peer educators.Involving youth and key informants in direct collaboration with research team, a qualitative approach was planned based on grounded theory. For data collection a semi-structured guide questioning was designed. Sixteen focus group discussions and 8 in depth interview were held.The majority of participants emphasized on the importance of mental health, life skills, AIDS prevention, contraception methods, and healthy nutrition as the main training topics. They were extremely interested into the comprehensive educational material among their participatory role in peer programs.The training programs should be well defined based on the knowledge, skills and behavior of peers. During the implementation, training programs should be followed to meet the ongoing educational needs of service providers.

  9. Landslide risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lessing, P.; Messina, C.P.; Fonner, R.F.

    1983-01-01

    Landslide risk can be assessed by evaluating geological conditions associated with past events. A sample of 2,4 16 slides from urban areas in West Virginia, each with 12 associated geological factors, has been analyzed using SAS computer methods. In addition, selected data have been normalized to account for areal distribution of rock formations, soil series, and slope percents. Final calculations yield landslide risk assessments of 1.50=high risk. The simplicity of the method provides for a rapid, initial assessment prior to financial investment. However, it does not replace on-site investigations, nor excuse poor construction. ?? 1983 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

  10. Patient caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... for prediction purposes, as measured until now in the literature, is at best questionable in schoolchildren, adolescents and adults. That is not to say these additional factors should not be assessed to help understand the strength of their associations with the disease experience in a particular patient......, and aid in the development of an individualized and targeted preventive and management plan....

  11. Further exploration of dissemination bias in qualitative research required to facilitate assessment within qualitative evidence syntheses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toews, Ingrid; Booth, Andrew; Berg, Rigmor C; Lewin, Simon; Glenton, Claire; Munthe-Kaas, Heather M; Noyes, Jane; Schroter, Sara; Meerpohl, Joerg J

    2017-08-01

    To conceptualise and discuss dissemination bias in qualitative research. It is likely that the mechanisms leading to dissemination bias in quantitative research, including time lag, language, gray literature, and truncation bias also contribute to dissemination bias in qualitative research. These conceptual considerations have informed the development of a research agenda. Further exploration of dissemination bias in qualitative research is needed, including the extent of non-dissemination and related dissemination bias, and how to assess dissemination bias within qualitative evidence syntheses. We also need to consider the mechanisms through which dissemination bias in qualitative research could occur to explore approaches for reducing it. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Cardiac Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Risk Assessment Related tests: Lipid Profile , VLDL Cholesterol , hs-CRP , Lp(a) Overview | Common Questions | Related Pages What ... cardiac risk include: High-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) : Studies have shown that measuring CRP with a ...

  13. Qualitative Analysis for Maintenance Process Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brand, Lionel; Kim, Yong-Mi; Melo, Walcelio; Seaman, Carolyn; Basili, Victor

    1996-01-01

    In order to improve software maintenance processes, we first need to be able to characterize and assess them. These tasks must be performed in depth and with objectivity since the problems are complex. One approach is to set up a measurement-based software process improvement program specifically aimed at maintenance. However, establishing a measurement program requires that one understands the problems to be addressed by the measurement program and is able to characterize the maintenance environment and processes in order to collect suitable and cost-effective data. Also, enacting such a program and getting usable data sets takes time. A short term substitute is therefore needed. We propose in this paper a characterization process aimed specifically at maintenance and based on a general qualitative analysis methodology. This process is rigorously defined in order to be repeatable and usable by people who are not acquainted with such analysis procedures. A basic feature of our approach is that actual implemented software changes are analyzed in order to understand the flaws in the maintenance process. Guidelines are provided and a case study is shown that demonstrates the usefulness of the approach.

  14. Validation of a new assessment tool for qualitative research articles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schou, Lone; Høstrup, Helle; Lyngsø, Elin Egholm

    2012-01-01

    schou l., høstrup h., lyngsø e.e., larsen s. & poulsen i. (2011) Validation of a new assessment tool for qualitative research articles. Journal of Advanced Nursing00(0), 000-000. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2648.2011.05898.x ABSTRACT: Aim.  This paper presents the development and validation of a new...... assessment tool for qualitative research articles, which could assess trustworthiness of qualitative research articles as defined by Guba and at the same time aid clinicians in their assessment. Background.  There are more than 100 sets of proposals for quality criteria for qualitative research. However, we...... is the Danish acronym for Appraisal of Qualitative Studies. Phase 1 was to develop the tool based on a literature review and on consultation with qualitative researchers. Phase 2 was an inter-rater reliability test in which 40 health professionals participated. Phase 3 was an inter-rater reliability test among...

  15. Qualitative and quantitative ultrasound assessment of gastric content

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flora Margarida Barra Bisinotto

    Full Text Available Summary Objective: Pulmonary aspiration of the gastric contents is one of the most feared complications in anesthesia. Its prevention depends on preoperative fasting as well as identification of risky patients. A reliable diagnostic tool to assess gastric volume is currently lacking. The aim of this study performed on volunteers was to evaluate the feasibility of ultrasonography to identify qualitative and quantitative gastric content. Method: A standardized gastric scanning protocol was applied on 67 healthy volunteers to assess the gastric antrum in four different situations: fasting, after ingesting clear fluid, milk and a solid meal. A qualitative and quantitative assessment of the gastric content in the antrum was performed by a blinded sonographer. The antrum was considered either as empty, or containing clear or thick fluid, or solids. Total gastric volume was predicted based on a cross-sectional area of the antrum. A p-value less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: For each type of gastric content, the sonographic characteristics of the antrum and its content were described and illustrated. Sonographic qualitative assessment allowed to distinguish between an empty stomach and one with different kinds of meal. The predicted gastric volume was significantly larger after the consumption of any food source compared to fasting. Conclusion: Bedside sonography can determine the nature of gastric content. It is also possible to estimate the difference between an empty gastric antrum and one that has some food in it. Such information may be useful to estimate the risk of aspiration, particularly in situations when prandial status is unknown or uncertain.

  16. Qualitative Risk Assessment on the Entry of African Swine Fever into Jiangxi Province%非洲猪瘟传入江西省的定性风险分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张付华; 黄烨祯

    2016-01-01

    Objective]In order to acquaint the introduction risk of African swine fever(ASF)into Jiangxi province, so as to find out the key risk control points. [Methods]A qualitative risk assessment was made. The hazard identification was conducted firstly,then the risk assessment was divided into four sections in accordance with the prescribed risk analysis system derived from the OIE Terrestrial Animal Health Code,including release assessment,exposure assessment,consequence assessment and risk calculation. During the process,each step was defined and assessed. [Results]The results of release,exposure and consequence assessment showed that the risk of ASF introducing into Jiangxi province was high,and the credibility was medium. The key risk points of release assessment were the animal products and by-products entered via seaports and airports,biologic vectors carried by the foreign ships and containers. [Conclusion]The risk assessment results indicated that inspection and quarantine of ASF should be strengthened, monitoring and early warning,effective propaganda and training should be carried out in Jiangxi province,so as to stop the entry of ASF and detect and control it timely once entered.%[目的]了解非洲猪瘟(ASF)传入江西省的风险,找出关键风险点。[方法]首先进行危害确认,然后参照有关国际组织的风险分析系统,将风险评估划分为四个步骤:释放评估、暴露评估、后果评估和风险计算,并对其进行定义,逐步评估。[结果]综合释放评估、暴露评估和后果评估结果,认为ASF传入江西省的风险较高,可信度为中等。释放评估的关键风险点主要为经海港和空港进入的动物产品及副产品、外来船舶和集装箱可能携带的生物传播媒介。[结论]风险分析结果提示,江西省应严格出入境检验检疫,及时开展监测预警和有效的宣传培训,防止ASF传入,做到一旦传入,能够及时发现和控制。

  17. Acquisition of extended spectrum β-lactamases during travel abroad-A qualitative study among Swedish travellers examining their knowledge, risk assessment, and behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiklund, Susanne; Fagerberg, Ingegerd; Örtqvist, Åke; Broliden, Kristina; Tammelin, Ann

    2016-01-01

    Travel to foreign countries involves the risk of becoming a carrier of antibiotic-resistant bacteria, especially when the destination is a country with a high prevalence of this type of bacteria. The aim of this study was to learn about the knowledge of antibiotic resistance, and the behaviour and risk-taking among travellers, who had become carriers of extended spectrum beta-lactamases (ESBL)-producing bacteria during travel to a high-prevalence country. A modified version of grounded theory was used to analyse 15 open interviews. The analysis resulted in a core category: A need for knowledge to avoid risk-taking. Before the journey, the participants did not perceive there to be any risk of becoming a carrier of antibiotic- resistant bacteria. The low level of knowledge of antibiotic-resistant bacteria and transmission routes influenced their behaviour and risk-taking during their journey, resulting in them exposing themselves to risk situations. After their trip, the majority did not believe that their personal risk behaviour could have caused them to become carriers of ESBL. The participants' lack of knowledge of antibiotic-resistant bacteria resulted in unconscious risk-taking during their journey, which may have resulted in becoming carriers of ESBL-producing bacteria.

  18. Microbiological Quantitative Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dominguez, Silvia; Schaffner, Donald W.

    The meat and poultry industry faces ongoing challenges due to the natural association of pathogens of concern (e.g., Salmonella, Campylobacter jejuni, Escherichia coli O157:H7) with a variety of domesticated food animals. In addition, pathogens such as Listeria monocytogenes pose a significant cross-contamination risk during further meat and poultry processing, distribution, and storage. Furthermore, the meat and poultry industries are constantly changing with the addition of new products, use of new raw materials, and targeting of new consumer populations, each of which may give rise to potential new risks. National and international regulations are increasingly using a “risk-based” approach to food safety (where the regulatory focus is driven by the magnitude of the risk), so risk assessment is becoming a valuable tool to systematically organize and evaluate the potential public health risk posed by food processing operations.

  19. Northwest Climate Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mote, P.; Dalton, M. M.; Snover, A. K.

    2012-12-01

    As part of the US National Climate Assessment, the Northwest region undertook a process of climate risk assessment. This process included an expert evaluation of previously identified impacts, their likelihoods, and consequences, and engaged experts from both academia and natural resource management practice (federal, tribal, state, local, private, and non-profit) in a workshop setting. An important input was a list of 11 risks compiled by state agencies in Oregon and similar adaptation efforts in Washington. By considering jointly the likelihoods, consequences, and adaptive capacity, participants arrived at an approximately ranked list of risks which was further assessed and prioritized through a series of risk scoring exercises to arrive at the top three climate risks facing the Northwest: 1) changes in amount and timing of streamflow related to snowmelt, causing far-reaching ecological and socioeconomic consequences; 2) coastal erosion and inundation, and changing ocean acidity, combined with low adaptive capacity in the coastal zone to create large risks; and 3) the combined effects of wildfire, insect outbreaks, and diseases will cause large areas of forest mortality and long-term transformation of forest landscapes.

  20. Assessment of fracture risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kanis, John A. [WHO Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield S10 2RX (United Kingdom)], E-mail: w.j.pontefract@sheffield.ac.uk; Johansson, Helena; Oden, Anders [WHO Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield S10 2RX (United Kingdom); McCloskey, Eugene V. [WHO Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield S10 2RX (United Kingdom); Osteoporosis Centre, Northern General Hospital, Sheffield (United Kingdom)

    2009-09-15

    Fractures are a common complication of osteoporosis. Although osteoporosis is defined by bone mineral density at the femoral neck, other sites and validated techniques can be used for fracture prediction. Several clinical risk factors contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD. These include age, prior fragility fracture, smoking, excess alcohol, family history of hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis and the use of oral glucocorticoids. These risk factors in conjunction with BMD can be integrated to provide estimates of fracture probability using the FRAX tool. Fracture probability rather than BMD alone can be used to fashion strategies for the assessment and treatment of osteoporosis.

  1. Qualitative assessment of innovations in healthcare provision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghosh Amit K

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The triad of quality, innovation and economic restraint is as important in health care as it is in the business world. There are many proposals for the assessment of quality and of economic restraints in health care but only a few address assessment of innovations. We propose a strategy and new structures to standardize the description of health care innovations and to quantify them. Discussion Strategy and structure are based on the assumption that in the early phase of an innovation only data on the feasibility and possibly on the efficacy or effectiveness of an innovation can be expected. From the patient's perspective, benefit resulting from an innovation can be confirmed only in a later phase of development. Early indicators of patient's benefit will be surrogate parameters which correlate only weakly with the desired endpoints. After the innovation has been in use, there will be more evidence on correlations between surrogate parameters and the desired endpoints to provide evidence of the patient benefit. From an administrative perspective, this evidence can be considered in decisions about public financing. Different criteria are proposed for the assessment of innovations in prevention, diagnosis and therapy. For decisions on public financing a public fund for innovations may be helpful. Depending on the phase of innovation risk sharing models are proposed between manufacturers, private insurers and public funding. Summary Potential for patient benefit is always uncertain during early stages of innovations. This uncertainty decreases with increasing information on the effects of the innovation. Information about an innovation can be quantified, categorized and integrated into rational economic decisions.

  2. Microbial Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ott, C. M.; Mena, K. D.; Nickerson, C.A.; Pierson, D. L.

    2009-01-01

    Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose

  3. Myths and Misconceptions about Using Qualitative Methods in Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harper, Shaun R.; Kuh, George D.

    2007-01-01

    The value of qualitative assessment approaches has been underestimated primarily because they are often juxtaposed against long-standing quantitative traditions and the widely accepted premise that the best research produces generalizable and statistically significant findings. Institutional researchers avoid qualitative methods for at least three…

  4. Myths and Misconceptions about Using Qualitative Methods in Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harper, Shaun R.; Kuh, George D.

    2007-01-01

    The value of qualitative assessment approaches has been underestimated primarily because they are often juxtaposed against long-standing quantitative traditions and the widely accepted premise that the best research produces generalizable and statistically significant findings. Institutional researchers avoid qualitative methods for at least three…

  5. Methylmercury risk assessment issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lipfert, F.W. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States); Saroff, L. [USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)

    1996-07-01

    This paper reviews the general background of health risks associated with mercury (Hg), primarily methylmercury (MeHg), with a view towards application to advanced technologies that could reduce any contributions from coal combustion. The need for accurate assessment of such risks is discussed, since Hg is now widely dispersed in the environment and cannot easily be eliminated. The primary pathway of MeHg intake is through eating contaminated fish. The issues of concern include identification of critical health outcomes (various neurological indices) and their confounding factors, accurate assessment of MeHg intake rates, and appropriate use of dose-response functions. Ultimately, such information will be used to evaluate alternative coal combustion systems.

  6. The use of quantitative risk assessment in HACCP

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoornstra, E.; Northolt, M.D.; Notermans, S.; Barendsz, A.W.

    2001-01-01

    During the hazard analysis as part of the development of a HACCP-system, first the hazards (contaminants) have to be identified and then the risks have to be assessed. Often, this assessment is restricted to a qualitative analysis. By using elements of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) the hazard a

  7. Improving Qualitative Assessment in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, Chad W.

    2013-01-01

    This dissertation considers in turn the role education plays in civil, democratic society; the role assessment plays in education; and the role theoretical constructs and cultural contexts play in assessment. Then, through literature review, document analysis, and interviews, the analysis investigates, identifies, and recommends…

  8. Finding Qualitative Research Evidence for Health Technology Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeJean, Deirdre; Giacomini, Mita; Simeonov, Dorina; Smith, Andrea

    2016-08-01

    Health technology assessment (HTA) agencies increasingly use reviews of qualitative research as evidence for evaluating social, experiential, and ethical aspects of health technologies. We systematically searched three bibliographic databases (MEDLINE, CINAHL, and Social Science Citation Index [SSCI]) using published search filters or "hedges" and our hybrid filter to identify qualitative research studies pertaining to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and early breast cancer. The search filters were compared in terms of sensitivity, specificity, and precision. Our screening by title and abstract revealed that qualitative research constituted only slightly more than 1% of all published research on each health topic. The performance of the published search filters varied greatly across topics and databases. Compared with existing search filters, our hybrid filter demonstrated a consistently high sensitivity across databases and topics, and minimized the resource-intensive process of sifting through false positives. We identify opportunities for qualitative health researchers to improve the uptake of qualitative research into evidence-informed policy making.

  9. Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — The Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) database is part of the VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP). This database contains assessments of selected surgical...

  10. Framework for Metals Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Framework for Metals Risk Assessment is a science-based document that addresses the special attributes and behaviors of metals and metal compounds to be considered when assessing their human health and ecological risks.

  11. Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This is the first step in a long-term effort to develop risk assessment guidelines for ecological effects. Its primary purpose is to offer a simple, flexible structure for conducting and evaluating ecological risk assessment within EPA.

  12. Risk assessment for carnitine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hathcock, John N; Shao, Andrew

    2006-10-01

    Carnitine is a conditionally essential amino acid-like compound involved in the transport of long-chain fatty acids into the mitochondria during the beta-oxidation process. Carnitine has become an increasingly popular ingredient in dietary supplements, especially weight loss and some sports nutrition products. A number of clinical trials have been conducted examining the effect of carnitine supplementation on weight loss and energy balance. Regarding safety, systematic evaluation of the research designs and data do not provide a basis for risk assessment and the usual safe upper level of intake (UL) derived from it unless the newer methods described as the observed safe level (OSL) or highest observed intake (HOI) are utilized. The OSL risk assessment method indicates that the evidence of safety is strong at intakes up to 2000mg/day l-carnitine equivalents for chronic supplementation, and this level is identified as the OSL. Although much higher levels have been tested without adverse effects and may be safe, the data for intakes above 2000mg/day are not sufficient for a confident conclusion of long-term safety.

  13. Review of qualitative approaches for the construction industry: designing a risk management toolbox.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zalk, David M; Spee, Ton; Gillen, Matt; Lentz, Thomas J; Garrod, Andrew; Evans, Paul; Swuste, Paul

    2011-06-01

    This paper presents the framework and protocol design for a construction industry risk management toolbox. The construction industry needs a comprehensive, systematic approach to assess and control occupational risks. These risks span several professional health and safety disciplines, emphasized by multiple international occupational research agenda projects including: falls, electrocution, noise, silica, welding fumes, and musculoskeletal disorders. Yet, the International Social Security Association says, "whereas progress has been made in safety and health, the construction industry is still a high risk sector." Small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) employ about 80% of the world's construction workers. In recent years a strategy for qualitative occupational risk management, known as Control Banding (CB) has gained international attention as a simplified approach for reducing work-related risks. CB groups hazards into stratified risk 'bands', identifying commensurate controls to reduce the level of risk and promote worker health and safety. We review these qualitative solutions-based approaches and identify strengths and weaknesses toward designing a simplified CB 'toolbox' approach for use by SMEs in construction trades. This toolbox design proposal includes international input on multidisciplinary approaches for performing a qualitative risk assessment determining a risk 'band' for a given project. Risk bands are used to identify the appropriate level of training to oversee construction work, leading to commensurate and appropriate control methods to perform the work safely. The Construction Toolbox presents a review-generated format to harness multiple solutions-based national programs and publications for controlling construction-related risks with simplified approaches across the occupational safety, health and hygiene professions.

  14. Risk perception and choice of place of birth in women with high risk pregnancies: A qualitative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Suzanne; Ayers, Susan; Holden, Des

    2016-07-01

    Objective To examine the perception of risk among a group of women with high risk pregnancies who were either planning to give birth in hospital, or at home despite medical advice to the contrary. The intention was to consider differences and similarities between the groups to examine how perception of risk relates to choice of place of birth. Design Qualitative study using semi-structured interviews. Setting Maternity department in a hospital in South East England. Participants Twenty-six women with high risk pregnancies, at least 32 weeks pregnant. Half were planning hospital births and half homebirths. Measurements and findings Semi-structured interviews to investigate women's understanding and assessment of risk. Results were analysed using thematic analysis. Five themes emerged: understanding of situation; judgement of risk; reassuring factors; impact of risk; and coping with risk. Women from both groups had some understanding of the implications of their medical/obstetric conditions. They displayed concerns about their babies' wellbeing. Women planning homebirths assessed their risks as lower and expressed less concerns than women planning hospital births. Women planning hospital births more frequently described following professional advice. Key conclusions Risk perception is individual and subjective. Women with high risk pregnancies who plan to give birth at home perceive risk differently to women who plan hospital births. Implications for practice Healthcare professionals working with women with high risk pregnancies should be aware of the potential for differences in definitions and perceptions of risk within this group.

  15. Risk assessment in travel medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leggat, Peter A

    2006-01-01

    Risk assessment is an integral part of pre-travel and post- assessment. Risk assessment largely determines what health and safety advice and interventions are given within the relevant prevailing travel health guidelines. Risk assessment needs time and depends on information, including that given by the traveller. Risk assessment also needs to be documented. Risk assessment of the traveller preferably starts before they enter the consulting room, where travellers may complete a pre-travel health questionnaire. Armed with this information, risk assessment may be assisted by access to computerised travel health databases and the published literature. Experience of travel to the destination may also assist in risk assessment and the tour operator, overseas employer or agency, the traveller or even the travel health advisers themselves may provide this information.

  16. Methods of synthesizing qualitative research studies for health technology assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ring, Nicola; Jepson, Ruth; Ritchie, Karen

    2011-10-01

    Synthesizing qualitative research is an important means of ensuring the needs, preferences, and experiences of patients are taken into account by service providers and policy makers, but the range of methods available can appear confusing. This study presents the methods for synthesizing qualitative research most used in health research to-date and, specifically those with a potential role in health technology assessment. To identify reviews conducted using the eight main methods for synthesizing qualitative studies, nine electronic databases were searched using key terms including meta-ethnography and synthesis. A summary table groups the identified reviews by their use of the eight methods, highlighting the methods used most generally and specifically in relation to health technology assessment topics. Although there is debate about how best to identify and quality appraise qualitative research for synthesis, 107 reviews were identified using one of the eight main methods. Four methods (meta-ethnography, meta-study, meta-summary, and thematic synthesis) have been most widely used and have a role within health technology assessment. Meta-ethnography is the leading method for synthesizing qualitative health research. Thematic synthesis is also useful for integrating qualitative and quantitative findings. Four other methods (critical interpretive synthesis, grounded theory synthesis, meta-interpretation, and cross-case analysis) have been under-used in health research and their potential in health technology assessments is currently under-developed. Synthesizing individual qualitative studies has becoming increasingly common in recent years. Although this is still an emerging research discipline such an approach is one means of promoting the patient-centeredness of health technology assessments.

  17. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  18. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    as a powerful tool for the evaluation of potential health consequences of planned measures. It is often discussed whether HIA is not just another term or form of risk assessment and what is their relation. Our aim is to discuss similarities and differences between the two methods so as to clarify......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...... standardised scientific methods to characterise the probability and magnitude of harm caused by a hazard, preferably in a quantitative manner. In turn, HIA is a process to assess future impacts of recent proposals and is dominated by qualitative evaluation. It makes a projection for a future scenario rather...

  19. Caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mejàre, I; Axelsson, S; Dahlén, G

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess the ability of multivariate models and single factors to correctly identify future caries development in pre-school children and schoolchildren/adolescents. STUDY DESIGN: A systematic literature search for relevant papers was conducted with pre-determined inclusion criteria....... Seven studies had high quality, 35 moderate and the rest poor quality. The accuracy of multivariate models was higher for pre-school children than for schoolchildren/adolescents. However, the models had seldom been validated in independent populations, making their accuracy uncertain. Of the single...... predictors, baseline caries experience had moderate/good accuracy in pre-school children and limited accuracy in schoolchildren/adolescents. The period of highest risk for caries incidence in permanent teeth was the first few years after tooth eruption. In general, the quality of evidence was limited...

  20. Practical Approaches to Risk Assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    The importance of using risk assessment in developing foodregulations is growing with the globalization of our food supply. The World Trade Organization has entrenched the principles of science-based risk assessment in the Agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures. The relevant international organization for food standards, the Codex Alimentarius Commission, recognises risk analysis, and its component parts risk assessment, risk management and risk communication, as the basis for scientific decision-making. Risk assessment comprises two activities: hazard evaluation; and exposure estimation. A hazard may be chemical, microbiological or nutritional in origin. The practical application of risk assessment in Australia is illustrated in this presentation by four examples involving: (1) food additives, (2) microbiological safety of imported raw milk cheeses, (3) genetically modified foods and (4) imported food inspection.

  1. Practical Approaches to Risk Assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SIMONBROOKE-TAYLOR

    2001-01-01

    The importance of using risk assessment in developing food regulations is growing with the globalization of our food supple,The World Trade Oranization has entrenched the principles of science-based risk assessment in the Agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures.The relevant international organization for food standards,the Codex Alimentarius Commission,recognises risk analysis,and its component parts risk assessment,risk management and risk communication as the basis for scientific decision-making,Risk assessment comprises two activities:hazard evaluation;and exposure estimation.A hazard may be chemical,microbiological or nutritional in origin,The practical application of risk assessment in Australia is illustrated in this presentation y four examples involving:(1) food additives,(2) microiological safety of imported raw milk cheeses,(3) genetically modified foods and (4) imported food inspection.

  2. Assessing the Environmental Risks of Nanomaterials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Baun, Anders

    decisionmakers better decide on which risk assessment/analysis framework may be best suited for the specific risk decision at hand. Among other results, we find that while many of the assessed frameworks have their advantages along with limitations, most may require potentially lengthy decision-making processes...... of uncertainty, degree of precaution, inclusion of quantitative or qualitative data, inclusion of life-cycle perspective, iterative and/or adaptive, ensuring timely decision making, and degree of transparency. This analysis can ultimately assist scientists, government agencies, organizations, and other......Assessing the environmental risks of engineered nanomaterials (NM) is currently an intensely contested subject among scientists, organizations, governments, and policymakers. The shear number, variety, and market penetration of NM in consumer goods and other applications, including environmental...

  3. Qualitative and quantitative assessment of interior moisture buffering by enclosures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Janssen, Hans; Roels, Staf

    2009-01-01

    The significance of interior humidity in attaining sustainable, durable, healthy and comfortable buildings is increasingly recognised. Given their significant interaction, interior humidity appraisals need a qualitative and/or quantitative assessment of interior moisture buffering. While...... suggested protocols for the simple and fast measurement of the moisture buffer potential of interior elements allow qualitative assessment, none of these are currently dependable for a wide range of moisture production regimes. In response to these flaws, this paper introduces the production......-adaptive characterisation of the moisture buffer potential of interior elements and corroborates their superposition toward a room-enclosure moisture buffer potential. It is verified that this enables qualitative comparison of enclosures in relation to interior moisture buffering. It is moreover demonstrated that it forms...

  4. Qualitative research in nutrition and dietetics: assessing quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilnick, A; Swift, J A

    2011-06-01

    In recent years, qualitative research has become much more widely used in healthcare settings and undoubtedly has much to offer nutrition and dietetics. Its value is, however, still sometimes called into question and, for those unfamiliar with qualitative approaches, it can be difficult to grasp what distinguishes 'good' qualitative research from that which has been less rigorously conceived and conducted. This review, the fourth in the series, aims to highlight some of the key scientific debates around the quality criteria that can be applied to qualitative research, and offers some flexible guidelines that may be used both in producing and assessing qualitative health research, including studies in nutrition and dietetics. Other reviews in this series provide a model for embarking on a qualitative research project in nutrition and dietetics, an overview of the principal techniques of data collection, sampling and analysis and some practical advice relevant to nutrition and dietetics, along with glossaries of key terms. © 2010 The Authors. Journal compilation © 2010 The British Dietetic Association Ltd.

  5. When Assessment Data Are Words: Validity Evidence for Qualitative Educational Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, David A; Kuper, Ayelet; Hatala, Rose; Ginsburg, Shiphra

    2016-10-01

    Quantitative scores fail to capture all important features of learner performance. This awareness has led to increased use of qualitative data when assessing health professionals. Yet the use of qualitative assessments is hampered by incomplete understanding of their role in forming judgments, and lack of consensus in how to appraise the rigor of judgments therein derived. The authors articulate the role of qualitative assessment as part of a comprehensive program of assessment, and translate the concept of validity to apply to judgments arising from qualitative assessments. They first identify standards for rigor in qualitative research, and then use two contemporary assessment validity frameworks to reorganize these standards for application to qualitative assessment.Standards for rigor in qualitative research include responsiveness, reflexivity, purposive sampling, thick description, triangulation, transparency, and transferability. These standards can be reframed using Messick's five sources of validity evidence (content, response process, internal structure, relationships with other variables, and consequences) and Kane's four inferences in validation (scoring, generalization, extrapolation, and implications). Evidence can be collected and evaluated for each evidence source or inference. The authors illustrate this approach using published research on learning portfolios.The authors advocate a "methods-neutral" approach to assessment, in which a clearly stated purpose determines the nature of and approach to data collection and analysis. Increased use of qualitative assessments will necessitate more rigorous judgments of the defensibility (validity) of inferences and decisions. Evidence should be strategically sought to inform a coherent validity argument.

  6. The Annemarie Roeper Method of Qualitative Assessment: My Journey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beneventi, Anne

    2016-01-01

    The Annemarie Roeper Method of Qualitative Assessment (QA) establishes an extremely rich set of procedures for revealing students' strengths as well as opportunities for the development of bright young people. This article explores the ways in which the QA process serves as a sterling example of a holistic, authentic system for recognizing…

  7. The Annemarie Roeper Method of Qualitative Assessment: My Journey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beneventi, Anne

    2016-01-01

    The Annemarie Roeper Method of Qualitative Assessment (QA) establishes an extremely rich set of procedures for revealing students' strengths as well as opportunities for the development of bright young people. This article explores the ways in which the QA process serves as a sterling example of a holistic, authentic system for recognizing…

  8. Biological Based Risk Assessment for Space Exploration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2011-01-01

    Exposures from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) - made up of high-energy protons and high-energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, and solar particle events (SPEs) - comprised largely of low- to medium-energy protons are the primary health concern for astronauts for long-term space missions. Experimental studies have shown that HZE nuclei produce both qualitative and quantitative differences in biological effects compared to terrestrial radiation, making risk assessments for cancer and degenerative risks, such as central nervous system effects and heart disease, highly uncertain. The goal for space radiation protection at NASA is to be able to reduce the uncertainties in risk assessments for Mars exploration to be small enough to ensure acceptable levels of risks are not exceeded and to adequately assess the efficacy of mitigation measures such as shielding or biological countermeasures. We review the recent BEIR VII and UNSCEAR-2006 models of cancer risks and their uncertainties. These models are shown to have an inherent 2-fold uncertainty as defined by ratio of the 95% percent confidence level to the mean projection, even before radiation quality is considered. In order to overcome the uncertainties in these models, new approaches to risk assessment are warranted. We consider new computational biology approaches to modeling cancer risks. A basic program of research that includes stochastic descriptions of the physics and chemistry of radiation tracks and biochemistry of metabolic pathways, to emerging biological understanding of cellular and tissue modifications leading to cancer is described.

  9. Information needs for risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  10. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  11. Using risk assessment in periodontics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodman, Alan J

    2014-08-01

    Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

  12. Benefit-Risk Assessment in Drug Development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sarac, Sinan

    This thesis covers the development, testing and use of an eight-step structured method for data-driven benefit-risk assessment. The aim of this thesis was to create a tailored method for the assessment of clinical data. The focus has been on three major aspects: (i) A simple preliminary method....... In total, four pilot studies and internal workshops were conducted. The method was therefore developed in an iterative fashion. The method involves eight successive steps: 1) establishment of the decision context, 2) identification of benefit and risk criteria, 3) weighting, 4) scoring, 5) evaluation...... and supported by a qualitative framework with built-in quantitative measures. However, at the same time the method is transparent in the sense that all assumptions made in the various steps of the assessment are clearly expressed all the way to the final decision. This is important both to avoid that unreported...

  13. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  14. Nanomaterials: Regulation and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Steffen Foss; Grieger, Khara Deanne; Baun, Anders

    2013-01-01

    The topics of regulation and risk assessment of nanomaterials have never been more relevant and controversial in Europe than they are at this point in time. In this entry, we present and discuss a number of major pieces of legislation relevant for the regulation of nanomaterials, including REACH...... Regulation. Chemical risk assessment provides a fundamental element in support of existing legislation. Risk assessment is normally said to consist of four elements, i.e., hazard identification, dose–response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Each of these four elements hold......, the Water Framework Directive, pharmaceuticals regulation, and the Novel Foods Regulation. Current regulation of nanomaterials entail three overall challenges: 1) limitations in regard to terminology and definitions of key terms such as a “substance,” “novel food,” etc.; 2) safety assessment requirements...

  15. Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H. (eds.)

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.).

  16. FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING RISKS OF ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Framework for Children's Health Risk Assessment report can serve as a resource on children's health risk assessment and it addresses the need to provide a comprehensive and consistent framework for considering children in risk assessments at EPA. This framework lays out the process, points to existing published sources for more detailed information on life stage-specific considerations, and includes web links to specific online publications and relevant Agency science policy papers, guidelines and guidance. The document emphasizes the need to take into account the potential exposures to environmental agents during preconception and all stages of development and focuses on the relevant adverse health outcomes that may occur as a result of such exposures. This framework is not an Agency guideline, but rather describes the overall structure and the components considered important for children's health risk assessment. The document describes an approach that includes problem formulation, analysis, and risk characterization, and also builds on Agency experience assessing risk to susceptible populations. The problem formulation step focuses on the life stage-specific nature of the analysis to include scoping and screening level questions for hazard characterization, dose response and exposure assessment. The risk characterization step recognizes the need to consider life stage-specific risks and explicitly describes the uncertainties and variability in the d

  17. Quantitative risk assessment of CO

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koornneef, J.; Spruijt, M.; Molag, M.; Ramírez, A.; Turkenburg, W.; Faaij, A.

    2010-01-01

    A systematic assessment, based on an extensive literature review, of the impact of gaps and uncertainties on the results of quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) for CO2 pipelines is presented. Sources of uncertainties that have been assessed are: failure rates, pipeline pressure, temperat

  18. [Risk assessment of chemical agents].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cottica, Danilo; Grignani, Elena; Bartolucci, Giovanni Battista

    2011-01-01

    The risk assessment of chemical agents is a well known and applied process carried out by Industrial Hygienists and Occupational Physicians based on exposure evaluation. The application of REACH (CE 1907/2006), CLP (CE 1272/2008) and SDS (UE 453/2010) introduces some changes and instruments to carry out the occupational exposure assessment, like new classification of substances, Exposure Scenario, suggested control measures that the Industrial Hygienist and the Occupational Physician must evaluate. If there is not a similar Exposure Scenario to apply a new risk assessment must carried out also by recommended software (ECETOC Targeted Risk Assessment; Easy to use workplace EMKG; Stoffenmanager). Looking at the relevance of the control measures and evaluation of Exposure Scenario we report the flowchart of risk assessment and management by the Method of Organisational Congruencies carried out with the Prevention and Protection Service and Occupational Physician Office of the Health Service of the Azienda Provinciale of Trento.

  19. Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a tool for environmental assessment of product and systems – over the whole life cycle from acquisition of raw materials to the end-of-life of the product – and encompassing all environmental impacts of emissions and resource usage, e.g. global warming, acidification...... and toxicity. Whereas Risk Assessment (RA) aims to identify absolute risks, LCA assess potential or relative impacts. LCA is readily applicable to nanotechnologies and several studies have been carried out, but LCA faces large problems when addressing toxic impacts of nanomaterials emitted during the life...... cycle. The models for assessing toxic impacts in LCA are to a large extent based on those developed for RA, e.g. EUSES, and require basic information about the inherent properties of the emissions like solubility, LogKow,ED50 etc. Additionally, it is a prerequisite to know how to characterize...

  20. The Qualitative Risk Assessment for the Input of Sheep Herd Spread of Brucellosis in Shanghai%上海地区输入性羊群传播布鲁氏菌病的定性风险评估

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    夏炉明; 陈琦; 赵洪进; 王曲直; 卢军; 孙泉云

    2015-01-01

    本研究按照OIE《陆生动物卫生法典》推荐的风险评估原则和步骤,对上海地区输入性羊群传播布鲁氏菌病开展危害识别、释放评估、暴露评估和后果评估,确定各类风险因素,对其风险等级进行描述和情景分析,并提出针对性的防控措施和建议,为政府部门制定管理政策提供科学依据和技术支持。%According to risk assessment principles and steps as recommended in the《Terrestrial Animal Health Code》,hazard identification,release assessment,exposure assessment and consequence assessment for the input of sheep herd spread of brucellosis in Shanghai were studied. This research identified all kinds of risk factors and de-scribed their risk level,and then the specific prevention and control measures and suggestions were presented,in order to provide scientific evidence for the government to make the risk management policies,as well as technical support.

  1. Building better environmental risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond eLayton

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  2. Hazard classification or risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hass, Ulla

    2013-01-01

    The EU classification of substances for e.g. reproductive toxicants is hazard based and does not to address the risk suchsubstances may pose through normal, or extreme, use. Such hazard classification complies with the consumer's right to know. It is also an incentive to careful use and storage...... and to substitute with less toxic compounds. Actually, if exposure is constant across product class, producersmay make substitution decisions based on hazard. Hazard classification is also useful during major accidents where there is no time for risk assessment and the exposure is likely to be substantial enough...... be a poor substitute for a proper risk assessment as low potency substances can constitute a risk if the exposure is high enough and vice versa. Examples illustrating the strength and limitations of hazard classification, risk assessment and toxicological potency will be presented with focus on reproductive...

  3. Integrating exposure into chemical alternatives assessment using a qualitative approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Greggs, Bill; Arnold, Scott; Burns, Thomas J.;

    2016-01-01

    could trigger a higher-tiered, more quantitative exposure assessment on the alternatives being considered. This talk will demonstrate an approach for including chemical- and product-related exposure information in a qualitative AA comparison. Starting from existing hazard AAs, a series of four chemical...... Sustainable Chemical Alternatives Technical Committee, which consists of scientists from academia, industry, government, and NGOs, has developed a qualitative comparative exposure approach. Conducting such a comparison can screen for alternatives that are expected to have a higher exposure potential, which......-product application scenarios were examined to test the concept, to understand the effort required, and to determine the value of exposure data in AA decision-making. The group has developed a classification approach for ingredient and product parameters to support comparisons between alternatives as well...

  4. Integrating exposure into chemical alternatives assessment using a qualitative approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Greggs, Bill; Arnold, Scott; Burns, T. E.

    2016-01-01

    Sustainable Chemical Alternatives Technical Committee, which consists of scientists from academia, industry, government, and NGOs, has developed a qualitative comparative exposure approach. Conducting such a comparison can screen for alternatives that are expected to have a higher human or environmental...... in a qualitative AA comparison. Starting from existing hazard AAs, a series of three chemical-product application scenarios were examined to test the concept, to understand the effort required, and to determine the value of exposure data in AA decision- making. The group has developed a classification approach...... exposure potential, which could trigger a higher-tiered, more quantitative exposure assessment on the alternatives being considered, minimizing the likelihood of regrettable substitution. This talk will demonstrate an approach for including chemical- and product-related exposure information...

  5. Modern biogeochemistry environmental risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Bashkin, Vladimir N

    2006-01-01

    Most books deal mainly with various technical aspects of ERA description and calculationsAims at generalizing the modern ideas of both biogeochemical and environmental risk assessment during recent yearsAims at supplementing the existing books by providing a modern understanding of mechanisms that are responsible for the ecological risk for human beings and ecosystem

  6. Cloud computing assessing the risks

    CERN Document Server

    Carstensen, Jared; Golden, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    Cloud Computing: Assessing the risks answers these questions and many more. Using jargon-free language and relevant examples, analogies and diagrams, it is an up-to-date, clear and comprehensive guide the security, governance, risk, and compliance elements of Cloud Computing.

  7. Test reactor risk assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jennings, R.H.; Rawlins, J.K.; Stewart, M.E.

    1976-04-01

    A methodology has been developed for the identification of accident initiating events and the fault modeling of systems, including common mode identification, as these methods are applied in overall test reactor risk assessment. The methods are exemplified by a determination of risks to a loss of primary coolant flow in the Engineering Test Reactor.

  8. Risk assessment future cash flows

    OpenAIRE

    Chachina H. G.

    2012-01-01

    This article is about risk assessment in planning future cash flows. Discount rate in DCF-model must include four factors: risk cash flow, inflation, value of investments, turnover assets. This has an influence net present value cash flow and make his incomparable.

  9. Risk assessment future cash flows

    OpenAIRE

    Chachina H. G.

    2012-01-01

    This article is about risk assessment in planning future cash flows. Discount rate in DCF-model must include four factors: risk cash flow, inflation, value of investments, turnover assets. This has an influence net present value cash flow and make his incomparable.

  10. SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT OF LEVEES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dario Rosidi

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available A seismic risk assessment procedure for earth embankments and levees is presented. The procedure consists of three major elements: (1 probability of ground motion at the site, (2 probability of levee failure given a level of ground motion has occurred and (3 expected loss resulting from the failure. This paper discusses the first two elements of the risk assessment. The third element, which includes economic losses and human casualty, will not be presented herein. The ground motions for risk assessment are developed using a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. A two-dimensional finite element analysis is performed to estimate the dynamic responses of levee, and the probability of levee failure is calculated using the levee fragility curve. The overall objective of the assessment is to develop an analytical tool for assessing the failure risk and the effectiveness of various levee strengthening alternatives for risk reduction. An example of the procedure, as it applies to a levee built along the perimeter of an island for flood protection and water storage, is presented. Variations in earthquake ground motion and soil and water conditions at the site are incorporated in the risk assessment. The effects of liquefaction in the foundation soils are also considered.

  11. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models....... enables the relative importance of the different factors (i.e. degree of climate change, assets value, discount rate etc.) to be determined, thus influencing the overall output of the assessment.......Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...

  12. Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

    2017-04-01

    The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

  13. Qualitative Assessment of Strata Control in an Indian Underground Coal Mine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ala, Charan Kumar; Tripathy, Debi Prasad

    2016-04-01

    A prerequisite to reduction in the number of roof/side fall occurrences—a stated goal of DGMS for enhancing workmen safety in underground coal mines—is risk identification through application of appropriate assessment techniques. This article presents the outcome of a study undertaken to identify, analyse and evaluate the roof/side fall risks. WRAC and Risk Matrix tools have been used to provide a qualitative measure of the risk magnitude. Outcomes of a case study performed in an Indian underground coal mine are presented in the present work. It could be inferred that hazard severity increased because of the existence of "geological disturbances and weak roof and sides". Operational lacunae, such as non-determination of RMR, non-framing of SSR, and non-availability of support material, enhance roof/side fall risks.

  14. Cancer risk assessment of toxaphene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buranatrevedh, Surasak

    2004-07-01

    The primary purpose is to do cancer risk assessment of toxaphene by using four steps of risk assessment proposed by the United States National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council (NAS/NRC). Four steps of risk assessment including hazard identification, dose-response relationship, exposure assessment, and risk characterization were used to evaluate cancer risk of toxaphene. Toxaphene was the most heavily used insecticide in many parts of the world before it was banned in 1982. It increased incidence of neoplasms of liver and uterus in mice and increased incidence of neoplasms of endocrine organs, thyroid, pituitary, adrenal, mammary glands, and reproductive systems in rats. From mice's and rats' study, slope factor for toxaphene is 0.8557 (mg/ kg/day)(-1). Lifetime average daily dose (LADD) of toxaphene from ambient air, surface water, soil, and fish were 1.08 x 10(-6), 5.71 x 10(-6), 3.43 x 10(-7), and 7.96 x 10(-5) mg/kg/day, respectively. Cancer risk of toxaphene for average exposure is 7.42 x 10(-5). From this study, toxaphene might have carcinogenic risk among humans.

  15. A qualitative framework to assess hospital / medical websites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rafe, Vahid; Monfaredzadeh, Maryam

    2012-10-01

    Nowadays, there are many peoples who access to the internet to search for a proper hospital with their desired medical services. Hence, the website quality of hospitals or medical centers is very important to help patients/users. However, to design high qualitative medical websites, we should first know the medical quality metrics. Then, we should try to find a way to assess different medical websites based on the quality metrics. In fact, medical websites may have a significant role to increase the society's knowledge about people health, provided services for patients etc. Thus, it is necessary to design a framework to evaluate the quality of these websites. Even though there are many medical websites, unfortunately, there are a few studies about quality analysis of medical/hospital websites. In this paper, we propose a qualitative framework to assess different medical websites. The proposed framework consists of 7 main categories, each having different metrics. Finally, to show how these metrics can help designers to assess the websites quality, we have considered 3 different hospitals as case studies. We asked different people including doctors, website designers, and usual peoples to evaluate our defined metrics on each case study. At the end, the results are shown through different charts.

  16. Clinical risk assessment in intensive care unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saeed Asefzadeh

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Clinical risk management focuses on improving the quality and safety of health care services by identifying the circumstances and opportunities that put patients at risk of harm and acting to prevent or control those risks. The goal of this study is to identify and assess the failure modes in the ICU of Qazvin′s Social Security Hospital (Razi Hospital through Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA. Methods: This was a qualitative-quantitative research by Focus Discussion Group (FDG performed in Qazvin Province, Iran during 2011. The study population included all individuals and owners who are familiar with the process in ICU. Sampling method was purposeful and the FDG group members were selected by the researcher. The research instrument was standard worksheet that has been used by several researchers. Data was analyzed by FMEA technique. Results: Forty eight clinical errors and failure modes identified, results showed that the highest risk probability number (RPN was in respiratory care "Ventilator′s alarm malfunction (no alarm" with the score 288, and the lowest was in gastrointestinal "not washing the NG-Tube" with the score 8. Conclusions: Many of the identified errors can be prevented by group members. Clinical risk assessment and management is the key to delivery of effective health care.

  17. Aliasing as noise - A quantitative and qualitative assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Stephen K.; Hazra, Rajeeb

    1993-01-01

    We present a model-based argument that, for the purposes of system design and digital image processing, aliasing should be treated as signal-dependent additive noise. By using a computational simulation based on this model, we process (high resolution images of) natural scenes in a way which enables the 'aliased component' of the reconstructed image to be isolated unambiguously. We demonstrate that our model-based argument leads naturally to system design metrics which quantify the extent of aliasing. And, by illustrating several aliased component images, we provide a qualitative assessment of aliasing as noise.

  18. Microbiological risk assessment for personal care products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, S E; Parker, M D; Amézquita, A; Pitt, T L

    2016-12-01

    qualitative or semi-quantitative rather than fully quantitative risk assessment, but an added benefit is that the disciplined structuring of available knowledge enables clear identification of gaps to target resources and if appropriate, instigate data generation.

  19. Assessment of Cardiovascular Disease Risk in South Asian Populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Monira Hussain

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Although South Asian populations have high cardiovascular disease (CVD burden in the world, their patterns of individual CVD risk factors have not been fully studied. None of the available algorithms/scores to assess CVD risk have originated from these populations. To explore the relevance of CVD risk scores for these populations, literature search and qualitative synthesis of available evidence were performed. South Asians usually have higher levels of both “classical” and nontraditional CVD risk factors and experience these at a younger age. There are marked variations in risk profiles between South Asian populations. More than 100 risk algorithms are currently available, with varying risk factors. However, no available algorithm has included all important risk factors that underlie CVD in these populations. The future challenge is either to appropriately calibrate current risk algorithms or ideally to develop new risk algorithms that include variables that provide an accurate estimate of CVD risk.

  20. An approach to risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, L.; Lund, S. P.; Hass, Ulla

    1998-01-01

    indicate that numerous persons are exposed in the working as well as in the general environment to several chemicals, for which almost no data on the effect on subtle neurophysiological functions are available. Development of an approach to risk assessment dealing with this problem is a major challenge...... in the nineties. Different approaches to risk assessment are discussed, the quality of the databases available for hazard assessment are evaluated, and the needs for further research are identified. (C) 1996 Intox Press, Inc.......A strategy for delineating risk factors from use of neurotoxic chemicals was applied to the Danish working environment. An analysis using this strategy disclosed the need for internationally adopted criteria for neurotoxicity, and consequently a working group was established by the Nordic Council...

  1. Army Independent Risk Assessment Guidebook

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-04-01

    AMSAA Kadry Rizk, TARDEC Lisa Graf, TARDEC Klaus Sanford, TRAC Elyse Krezmien, TRAC Jerry Scriven, ALU Igor Linkov, ERDC Alison Tichenor...Engineering ATEC - Army Test and Evaluation Command BCA - Business Case Analysis C - Consequence Level C- BA - Cost Benefit Analysis CDD...the AMSAA Risk Team has completed 12 technical and schedule risk assessments to support AoAs and Cost-Benefit Analyses (C- BAs ). AMSAA also developed

  2. ANTHROPIC RISK ASSESSMENT ON BIODIVERSITY

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niche...

  3. Identifying the benefits and risks of emerging treatments for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: a qualitative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bridges, John F P; Paly, Victoria Federico; Barker, Elizabeth; Kervitsky, Dolly

    2015-02-01

    Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a rare, progressive, and fatal disease, with very few therapeutic options. Given a paucity of qualitative research to the perspective of patients and other stakeholders in IPF, we sought to identify issues associated with the benefits and risks of emerging treatments and other issues relevant to design of a survey for assessing patient preferences for IPF treatments. Semi-structured key informant interviews were conducted, predominately via telephone, with a range of stakeholder perspectives identified through partnership with a national advocacy organization using a combination of purposive and snowball sampling. Stakeholders were asked guiding questions related to emerging trends impacting IPF patients, likely benefits and risks of emerging treatments, and the outcomes most relevant to patients. Detailed and de-identified field notes were analyzed using interpretive phenomenological analysis (IPA), and a taxonomy of key themes was developed. A total of 20 interviews (participation rate 63%) were conducted with patients/advocates/caregivers (n = 7), providers/researchers (n = 8), and experts associated with policy/industry (n = 5). All interviewees expressed great hope with regards to emerging treatments. Three super-ordinate themes emerged: impact of emerging therapies (spanning the benefits, risks, and unintended consequences of emerging therapies); documenting the patient experience (spanning measuring patient-reported outcomes and quality of life and understanding the burden of disease); and coping with disease progression (including symptom mitigation, lung transplantation, and end-of-life considerations). In identifying issues associated with emerging IPF treatments, we demonstrate the value of qualitative research in understanding the views of diverse stakeholders and in providing a basis for future survey research. As such, qualitative methods should play an important role in understanding the benefits and

  4. Tsunami risk assessment in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Strunz

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available In the framework of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS the assessment of tsunami risk is an essential part of the overall activities. The scientific and technical approach for the tsunami risk assessment has been developed and the results are implemented in the national Indonesian Tsunami Warning Centre and are provided to the national and regional disaster management and spatial planning institutions in Indonesia.

    The paper explains the underlying concepts and applied methods and shows some of the results achieved in the GITEWS project (Rudloff et al., 2009. The tsunami risk assessment has been performed at an overview scale at sub-national level covering the coastal areas of southern Sumatra, Java and Bali and also on a detailed scale in three pilot areas. The results are provided as thematic maps and GIS information layers for the national and regional planning institutions. From the analyses key parameters of tsunami risk are derived, which are integrated and stored in the decision support system of the national Indonesian Early Warning Centre. Moreover, technical descriptions and guidelines were elaborated to explain the developed approach, to allow future updates of the results and the further development of the methodologies, and to enable the local authorities to conduct tsunami risk assessment by using their own resources.

  5. Companies Credit Risk Assessment Methods for Investment Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dovilė Peškauskaitė

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available As the banks have tightened lending requirements, companies look for alternative sources of external funding. One of such is bonds issue. Unfortunately, corporate bonds issue as a source of funding is rare in Lithuania. This occurs because companies face with a lack of information, investors fear to take on credit risk. Credit risk is defined as a borrower’s failure to meet its obligation. Investors, in order to avoid credit risk, have to assess the state of the companies. The goal of the article is to determine the most informative methods of credit risk assessment. The article summarizes corporate lending sources, analyzes corporate default causes and credit risk assessment methods. The study based on the SWOT analysis shows that investors before making an investment decision should evaluate both the business risk,using qualitative method CAMPARI, and the financial risk, using financial ratio analysis.

  6. Methodology for qualitative uncertainty assessment of climate impact indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Juliane; Keup-Thiel, Elke; Rechid, Diana; Hänsler, Andreas; Pfeifer, Susanne; Roth, Ellinor; Jacob, Daniela

    2016-04-01

    The FP7 project "Climate Information Portal for Copernicus" (CLIPC) is developing an integrated platform of climate data services to provide a single point of access for authoritative scientific information on climate change and climate change impacts. In this project, the Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS) has been in charge of the development of a methodology on how to assess the uncertainties related to climate impact indicators. Existing climate data portals mainly treat the uncertainties in two ways: Either they provide generic guidance and/or express with statistical measures the quantifiable fraction of the uncertainty. However, none of the climate data portals give the users a qualitative guidance how confident they can be in the validity of the displayed data. The need for such guidance was identified in CLIPC user consultations. Therefore, we aim to provide an uncertainty assessment that provides the users with climate impact indicator-specific guidance on the degree to which they can trust the outcome. We will present an approach that provides information on the importance of different sources of uncertainties associated with a specific climate impact indicator and how these sources affect the overall 'degree of confidence' of this respective indicator. To meet users requirements in the effective communication of uncertainties, their feedback has been involved during the development process of the methodology. Assessing and visualising the quantitative component of uncertainty is part of the qualitative guidance. As visual analysis method, we apply the Climate Signal Maps (Pfeifer et al. 2015), which highlight only those areas with robust climate change signals. Here, robustness is defined as a combination of model agreement and the significance of the individual model projections. Reference Pfeifer, S., Bülow, K., Gobiet, A., Hänsler, A., Mudelsee, M., Otto, J., Rechid, D., Teichmann, C. and Jacob, D.: Robustness of Ensemble Climate Projections

  7. ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE REGULATED WATERCOURSES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elżbieta Bondar-Nowakowska

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Ecological risk has not been identified well enough for the designers and contractors to take any actions for its limitation. It results from the lack of the basis formed to assess its level objectively. The aim of this study was to determine the standards useful in the evaluation of the ecological risk for aquatic plants in rivers, where it is planned to conduct regulatory works. The basis for the analysis were the results of the study performed in 2008–2014 in unmodified and transformed lowland watercourses in Lower Silesia. 41 study sections were analysed in 11 watercourses. 30 sections were located in regulated watercourses, while 11 were in unmodified streams. The research included vascular aquatic plants identification and the degree of the bottom coverage by these plants. As a result of regulatory works qualitative and quantitative changes in aquatic plants communities were observed. The analysis of these changes concerning the range and conditions of works conduction enabled assigning measures to the factors of the considered risk. It served as a basis for describing the risk register and the matrix of risk. The study demonstrated that the most important threats resulting from the river regulation from the point of view of environmental protection are complete shading of watercourse bed, and in some cases, bed widening and deepening, embankments slope of 1: 1, 1: 0, embankments protection with stone material or their concreting.

  8. Development of a system for landslide risk assessment for Cuba

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Castellanos Abella, E.A.; Westen, C.J. van

    2005-01-01

    In many developing countries, such as Cuba, landslide-affected areas are not systematically mapped in a national inventory and no “regional to local” approach for landslide hazard and risk assessment has been carried out so far. Most of the conventional landslide studies in Cuba are qualitative in n

  9. Students perceiving risk: a quantitative assessment on three South ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Students perceiving risk: a quantitative assessment on three South African ... The project originated in qualitative research conducted over two years (2008- 2009) ... Cet article documente le risque perçu par les étudiants dans trois universités ...

  10. Development of a system for landslide risk assessment for Cuba

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Castellanos Abella, E.A.; Westen, C.J. van

    2005-01-01

    In many developing countries, such as Cuba, landslide-affected areas are not systematically mapped in a national inventory and no “regional to local” approach for landslide hazard and risk assessment has been carried out so far. Most of the conventional landslide studies in Cuba are qualitative in

  11. Qualitative and Quantitative Hippocampal MRI Assessments in Intractable Epilepsy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paramdeep Singh

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims. To acquire normative data of hippocampal volumes and T2 relaxation times, to evaluate and compare qualitative and quantitative assessments in evaluating hippocampi in patients with different durations of intractable epilepsy, and to propose an imaging protocol based on performance of these techniques. Methods. MRI analysis was done in 50 nonepileptic controls and 30 patients with intractable epilepsy on 1.5T scanner. Visual assessment and hippocampal volumetry were done on oblique coronal IR/T2W and T1W MP-RAGE images, respectively. T2 relaxation times were measured using 16-echo Carr-Purcell-Meiboom-Gill sequence. Volumetric data was normalized for variation in head size between individuals. Patients were divided into temporal ( and extratemporal ( groups based on clinical and EEG localization. Results. In controls, right hippocampal volume was slightly more than the left with no effect of age or gender. In TLE patients, hippocampal volumetry provided maximum concordance with EEG. Visual assessment of unilateral pathology concurred well with measured quantitative values but poorly in cases with bilateral pathologies. There were no significant differences of mean values between extratemporal group and controls group. Quantitative techniques detected mild abnormalities, undetected on visual assessment. Conclusions. Quantitative techniques are more sensitive to diagnose bilateral and mild unilateral hippocampal abnormalities.

  12. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denman, Matthew R.; Ames, Arlo Leroy

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  13. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ames, Arlo Leroy [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  14. Integrated Disposal Facility Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    MANN, F. M.

    2003-06-03

    An environmental risk assessment associated with the disposal of projected Immobilized Low-Activity Waste, solid wastes and failed or decommissioned melters in an Integrated Disposal Facility was performed. Based on the analyses all performance objectives associated with the groundwater, air, and intruder pathways were met.

  15. Caries risk assessment in children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, S

    2016-01-01

    (recommendation levels A-D). RESULTS: Three SR, three guidelines, and five papers, not considered in previous SR, were identified and formed the base for the present summary and recommendations. One of the systematic reviews and three of the primary publications were of moderate risk of bias, while the rest......PURPOSE: To summarise the findings of recent systematic reviews (SR) covering caries risk assessment in children, updated with recent primary studies. METHODS: A search for relevant papers published 2012-2014 was conducted in electronic databases. The systematic reviews were quality assessed...... with the AMSTAR tool and the primary publications according to the Cochrane handbook. The quality was rated as low, moderate, or high risk of bias. The findings were descriptively synthesised and the quality of evidence was graded according to GRADE. For the recommendations of practice, the SIGN scores were used...

  16. Assessing maternal healthcare inequities among migrants: a qualitative study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ligia Moreira Almeida

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Considering pregnancy and motherhood as periods of increased vulnerability in migrant women, to characterize the healthcare provided to this collective, we sought to identify and understand patterns of satisfaction and demand of maternal and child healthcare, assessing women’s perceptions about its quality. The study followed a qualitative methodology (semi-structured interviews for collecting and analysing data (content analysis and was conducted in Porto, the second largest city of Portugal. Participants were 25 recent immigrant mothers from Eastern European countries, Brazil, Portuguese-speaking African countries and six native Portuguese recent mothers (for comparison, contacted through social associations and institutions. Data suggests that healthcare depends not only on accessibility but especially on social opportunities. Equitable public health action must provide individuals and groups the equal opportunity to meet their needs, which may not be achieved by providing the same standard if care to all.

  17. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

  18. Guidance on a harmonised framework for pest risk assessment and the identification and evaluation of pest risk management options by EFSA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baker, R.; Candresse, T.; Dormannsné Simon, E.

    2010-01-01

    and transparency of risk assessments carried out by EFSA. The document discusses the main issues of the pest risk assessment process: terminology, data requirements and data-related uncertainties. Furthermore, the document provides a framework for pest risk assessment and evaluation of pest risk management options....... For the assessment of entry, establishment and spread of pests; both qualitative and quantitative approaches are recommended. An EFSA-adapted EPPO scheme is proposed should a qualitative approach be followed. The assessment of potential consequences of pest introduction and spread considers direct and indirect...... in the assessment. Principal requirements for the documentation of the pest risk assessment process are also discussed....

  19. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity.

  20. An approach to risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, L.; Lund, S. P.; Hass, Ulla

    1998-01-01

    A strategy for delineating risk factors from use of neurotoxic chemicals was applied to the Danish working environment. An analysis using this strategy disclosed the need for internationally adopted criteria for neurotoxicity, and consequently a working group was established by the Nordic Council...... in the nineties. Different approaches to risk assessment are discussed, the quality of the databases available for hazard assessment are evaluated, and the needs for further research are identified. (C) 1996 Intox Press, Inc.......A strategy for delineating risk factors from use of neurotoxic chemicals was applied to the Danish working environment. An analysis using this strategy disclosed the need for internationally adopted criteria for neurotoxicity, and consequently a working group was established by the Nordic Council...... indicate that numerous persons are exposed in the working as well as in the general environment to several chemicals, for which almost no data on the effect on subtle neurophysiological functions are available. Development of an approach to risk assessment dealing with this problem is a major challenge...

  1. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  2. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  3. Assessing the Environmental Risks of Nanomaterials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Baun, Anders

    Assessing the environmental risks of engineered nanomaterials (NM) is currently an intensely contested subject among scientists, organizations, governments, and policymakers. The shear number, variety, and market penetration of NM in consumer goods and other applications, including environmental...... to a wide range of technical limitations. For instance, serious knowledge gaps remain within e.g. the detection of NM in the environment, developing adequate testing equipment and protocols, and toxicity endpoints (Grieger et al., 2009). In the past few years, many scientists and organizations have...... of uncertainty, degree of precaution, inclusion of quantitative or qualitative data, inclusion of life-cycle perspective, iterative and/or adaptive, ensuring timely decision making, and degree of transparency. This analysis can ultimately assist scientists, government agencies, organizations, and other...

  4. Automating Spreadsheet Discovery & Risk Assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Perry, Eric

    2008-01-01

    There have been many articles and mishaps published about the risks of uncontrolled spreadsheets in today's business environment, including non-compliance, operational risk, errors, and fraud all leading to significant loss events. Spreadsheets fall into the realm of end user developed applications and are often absent the proper safeguards and controls an IT organization would enforce for enterprise applications. There is also an overall lack of software programming discipline enforced in how spreadsheets are developed. However, before an organization can apply proper controls and discipline to critical spreadsheets, an accurate and living inventory of spreadsheets across the enterprise must be created, and all critical spreadsheets must be identified. As such, this paper proposes an automated approach to the initial stages of the spreadsheet management lifecycle - discovery, inventory and risk assessment. Without the use of technology, these phases are often treated as a one-off project. By leveraging techn...

  5. Risk Assessment Terminology: Risk Communication Part 2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liuzzo, Gaetano; Bentley, Stefano; Giacometti, Federica; Piva, Silvia; Serraino, Andrea

    2016-04-19

    The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: different aspects of risk perception (perceived risk, media triggers, the psychometric paradigm, fright factors and cultural determinants of risk perception) are described. The risk profile elements are illustrated in the manuscript: hazard-food commodity combination(s) of concern; description of the public health problem; food production, processing, distribution and consumption; needs and questions for the risk assessors; available information and major knowledge gaps and other risk profile elements.

  6. Risk assessment terminology: risk communication part 2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaetano Liuzzo

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: different aspects of risk perception (perceived risk, media triggers, the psychometric paradigm, fright factors and cultural determinants of risk perception are described. The risk profile elements are illustrated in the manuscript: hazard-food commodity combination(s of concern; description of the public health problem; food production, processing, distribution and consumption; needs and questions for the risk assessors; available information and major knowledge gaps and other risk profile elements.

  7. Survey of mental health nurses' attitudes towards risk assessment, risk assessment tools and positive risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Downes, C; Gill, A; Doyle, L; Morrissey, J; Higgins, A

    2016-04-01

    WHAT IS KNOWN ON THE SUBJECT?: Risk assessment and safety planning are a core aspect of the role of the mental health nurse. Conflicting views exist on the value of risk assessment tools. Few studies have examined mental health nurses' attitudes towards risk, including use of tools and the role of positive risk in recovery. WHAT THE PAPER ADDS TO EXISTING KNOWLEDGE?: Mental health nurses view risk assessment as a core dimension of their role and not merely an exercise to fulfil organizational clinical safety and governance obligations. The majority of nurses hold positive attitudes towards therapeutic or positive risk, and consider creative risk taking as vital to people's recovery. The majority of nurses believe that risk assessment tools facilitate professional decision making, however, some are concerned that tools may negatively impact upon therapeutic relationships. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE?: Ongoing education on the use of risk assessment tools is required to minimize views that their use is incompatible with therapeutic engagement, and to enable nurses to develop confidence to engage with positive risk and to allow service users make decisions and take responsibility. Introduction Risk assessment and safety planning are considered core components of the role of the mental health nurse; however, little is known about nurses' attitudes towards risk assessment, use of tools to assess risk or therapeutic risk taking. Aim This study aimed to explore mental health nurses' attitudes towards completing risk assessments, use of tools as an aid, and therapeutic or positive risk. Method An anonymous survey which included 13 attitudinal statements, rated on a five-point Likert scale, was completed by 381 mental health nurses working in adult services in Ireland. Findings Findings indicate strong support for the practice of risk assessment in mental health practice. The vast majority of nurses believe that risk assessment tools facilitate professional

  8. Risk Assessment or Assessment of Risk? Developing an Evidence-Based Approach for Primary Producers of Leafy Vegetables To Assess and Manage Microbial Risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monaghan, J M; Augustin, J C; Bassett, J; Betts, R; Pourkomailian, B; Zwietering, M H

    2017-03-28

    Over the last 10 years, some high-profile foodborne illness outbreaks have been linked to the consumption of leafy greens. Growers are required to complete microbiological risk assessments (RAs) for the production of leafy crops supplied either to retail or for further processing. These RAs are based primarily on qualitative judgements of hazard and risks at various stages in the production process but lack many of the steps defined for quantitative microbiological RAs by the Codex Alimentarius Commission. This article is based on the discussions of an industry expert group and proposes a grower RA approach based on a structured qualitative assessment, which requires all decisions to be based on evidence and a framework for describing the decision process that can be challenged and defended within the supply chain. In addition, this article highlights the need for evidence to be more easily available and accessible to primary producers and identifies the need to develop hygiene criteria to aid validation of proposed interventions.

  9. Risk Assessment of Shellfish Toxins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rex Munday

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved.

  10. Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2011-09-01

    The high risk strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires an assessment of an individual\\'s total CVD risk so that the most intensive risk factor management can be directed towards those at highest risk. Here we review developments in the assessment and estimation of total CVD risk.

  11. [Quality control and assessment of qualitative interview in health care research].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Yan-ming; Liao, Xing

    2008-07-01

    It is not finally concluded how to standardize the use of qualitative research in the world. Qualitative researchers disagree with each other about this issue. As we know, there have been a large number of articles written in different ways about qualitative research due to the "flexibility", one of its features. Qualitative research is quite different from quantitative research which is easy to control its quality and quality assessment. A series of criteria has been set up for quantitative research. However qualitative research needs to be improved in these aspects, in which qualitative interviews are mostly used at home and abroad at present. Hence, it becomes an important and urgent issue for qualitative researchers to standardly control and assess the quality of qualitative interview.

  12. Qualitative assessment of temporal fluctuations on buffalo behaviour

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Serrapica

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The qualitative assessment of animal behaviour (QBA is an integrative, whole-animal methodology based on the qualitative interpretation of the dynamic style in which animals interact with their environment. In other words, it describes not what the animals do, but how they do what they do. We aimed to verify whether the QBA was able to detect the behavioural fluctuations occurring in animals in response to an environmental challenge. An 8-member panel was used. The panel was briefly trained on the temporal dominance of sensations (TDS procedure and subsequently asked to observe the behaviour of 4 buffalo heifers in 4 videos lasting 2 min each and score the behavioural expression of the animals following the TDS procedure. TDS consists in presenting to the panellist the list of behavioural descriptors on a computer screen along with each video. Each video was obtained by assembling two clips concerning the same animal in two different conditions: home indoor pen (1 min and novel outdoor paddock (1 min. Two videos started with the animal in the outdoor environment and two others in the opposite order. Six behavioural descriptors were chosen from a previous work conducted on the same animals: calm, active, curious, nervous, shy and apathetic. Each assessor was asked to select the dominant descriptor, which was considered as dominant when it gained most of the attention of the observer. Each time the observer felt the behaviour changed, he/she scored the new dominant descriptor until the behaviour ended. Each video was observed 4 times by each observer (4 replications in a randomised order at 24-h intervals. For each point of time, the proportion of runs (subject × replication for which a given descriptor was assessed as dominant (dominance rate >30% was computed. Results showed a satisfactory agreement among observers and replications. The observers clearly discriminated the first from the second half of each video. Calm and apathetic were

  13. [Risk assessment in pain therapy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoeffel, D; Casser, H R; Bach, M; Kress, H G; Likar, R; Locher, H; Steinleitner, W; Strohmeier, M; Brunner, H; Treede, R D; Zieglgänsberger, W; Sandkühler, J

    2008-10-01

    Analgesic therapy is not without risk. However, the risk of most analgesic interventions is minor compared to the risk of the inadequate treatment of pain and insufficient treatment may lead to chronic pain.A correct diagnosis should be the basis of any specific treatment of pain disorders. Only a diagnosis which implicates a multi-disciplinary assessment and which considers both the pathoanatomical, functional and biopsychosocial dysfunctions can lead to an adequate therapeutic intervention. Furthermore, therapeutic planning should include the personal needs of the patient and should have realistic aims.Pharmacological treatment is guided by the WHO pain ladder. The risks of the relevant substance groups must be considered. NSAIDs (non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs) which are included in all steps of the WHO pain ladder carry specific risks for the gastrointestinal, cardiovascular and renal systems and are contraindicated in many patients in need of analgesic therapy, e.g. in many elderly patients. Opioids which are recommended at steps 2 and 3 of the WHO pain ladder have less organ toxicity but they are still used reluctantly. Coanalgetics, especially antidepressants bear specific risks and the discussion on suicide rates under antidepressant medication is ongoing.Invasive methods such as the intrathecal application of analgesics are valuable procedures if the indication is correct and the treating physician has sufficient experience. Pain therapy is essential and the risks of the procedures are manageable. Considering the current knowledge on the mechanisms of pain sensitisation, the lack of adequate pain control can lead to chronic pain with severe consequences for the patient.

  14. Risk assessment of biological hazards in the European Union.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hugas, Marta; Tsigarida, Eirini; Robinson, Tobin; Calistri, Paolo

    2007-11-30

    International, community and national food safety law and any subsequent decision-making practices aim to be based on risk analysis--a process consisting of risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. With the appointment of the European Food Safety Authority as an independent scientific point of reference in risk assessment, there is a clear functional separation between risk assessment and risk management in the European Union food safety context. When a food safety question on microbiological hazards is to be answered--which is under the remit of the EFSA's Scientific Panel on Biological Hazards (BIOHAZ)--extensive dialogue and interactions covering the clarity of the question, the acceptability of the deadline and the availability of all necessary information take place with both the risk managers who ask the question and the stakeholders. During the first mandate of the BIOHAZ Panel (2003-2006), the scientific opinions were mainly based on qualitative and in some cases semi-quantitative microbiological risk assessment. In the second mandate of the BIOHAZ Panel, and as a first step towards developing a European approach on Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA), EFSA is preparing to carry out a QMRA on Salmonella in pigs, at European level through a consortium of European institutes.

  15. GPs’ Perceptions of Cardiovascular Risk and Views on Patient Compliance: A Qualitative Interview Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benedicte Lind Barfoed

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. General practitioners’ (GPs’ perception of risk is a cornerstone of preventive care. The aims of this interview study were to explore GPs’ professional and personal attitudes and experiences regarding treatment with lipid-lowering drugs and their views on patient compliance. Methods. The material was drawn from semistructured qualitative interviews. We sampled GPs purposively from ten selected practices, ensuring diversity of demographic, professional, and personal characteristics. The GPs were encouraged to describe examples from their own practices and reflect on them and were informed that the focus was their personal attitudes and experiences. Systematic text condensation was applied for analysis in order to uncover the concepts and themes. Results. The analysis revealed the following 3 main themes: (1 use of cardiovascular guidelines and risk assessment tools, (2 strategies for managing patient compliance, and (3 GPs’ own risk management. There were substantial differences in the attitudes concerning all three themes. Conclusions. The substantial differences in the GPs’ personal and professional risk perceptions may be a key to understanding why GPs do not always follow cardiovascular guidelines. The impact on daily clinical practice, personal consultation style, and patient behaviour with regard to prevention is worth studying further.

  16. Assessment of qualitative potential of groundwater using AHP and GIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamad Baniasadi

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In order to assess the groundwater quality status in Babak city (ShahreBabak plain, the quality parameters were studied simultaneously in all extent of the aquifers. According to the simultaneous study of all factors affecting water quality, The Geographic Information System (GIS can be used to analyze spatial data and raster maps can be made for changes in quality parameters and composition of these layers. In this study, after making variation maps for any qualitative parameter and classification of each map in GIS, by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP, in addition to determining the weight of each parameter, the weight of each class also was determined. The results show that according to Schoeller diagram drinking water is classified into four groups: good (1. 93 per cent, suitable (6.7 per cent, Unsuitable (71. 5 percent and bad (19. 87 percent and according to Wilcox diagram, agriculture water is classified into three groups: good (12. 3 percent, moderate (78. 9 percent and Unsuitable (8.8 percent.

  17. Landslides geotechnical analysis. Qualitative assessment by valuation factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuanalo Oscar, Sc D.; Oliva Aldo, Sc D.; Polanco Gabriel, M. E.

    2012-04-01

    In general, a landslide can cause a disaster when it is combined a number of factors such as an extreme event related to a geological phenomenon, vulnerable elements exposed in a specific geographic area, and the probability of loss and damage evaluated in terms of lives and economic assets, in a certain period of time. This paper presents the qualitative evaluation of slope stability through of Valuation Factors, obtained from the characterization of the determinants and triggers factors that influence the instability; for the first the morphology and topography, geology, soil mechanics, hydrogeology and vegetation to the second, the rain, earthquakes, erosion and scour, human activity, and ultimately dependent factors of the stability analysis, and its influence ranges which greatly facilitate the selection of construction processes best suited to improve the behavior of a slope or hillside. The Valuation Factors are a set of parameters for assessing the influence of conditioning and triggering factors that influence the stability of slopes and hillsides. The characteristics of each factor must be properly categorized to involve its effect on behavior; a way to do this is by assigning a weighted value range indicating its effect on the stability of a slope. It is proposed to use Valuation Factors with weighted values between 0 and 1 (arbitrarily selected but common sense and logic), the first corresponds to no or minimal effect on stability (no effect or very little influence) and the second, the greatest impact on it (has a significant influence). The meddle effects are evaluated with intermediate values.

  18. An implementation evaluation of a qualitative culture assessment tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tappin, D C; Bentley, T A; Ashby, L E

    2015-03-01

    Safety culture has been identified as a critical element of healthy and safe workplaces and as such warrants the attention of ergonomists involved in occupational health and safety (OHS). This study sought to evaluate a tool for assessing organisational safety culture as it impacts a common OHS problem: musculoskeletal disorders (MSD). The level of advancement across nine cultural aspects was assessed in two implementation site organisations. These organisations, in residential healthcare and timber processing, enabled evaluation of the tool in contrasting settings, with reported MSD rates also high in both sectors. Interviews were conducted with 39 managers and workers across the two organisations. Interview responses and company documentation were compared by two researchers to the descriptor items for each MSD culture aspect. An assignment of the level of advancement, using a five stage framework, was made for each aspect. The tool was readily adapted to each implementation site context and provided sufficient evidence to assess their levels of advancement. Assessments for most MSD culture aspects were in the mid to upper levels of advancement, although the levels differed within each organisation, indicating that different aspects of MSD culture, as with safety culture, develop at a different pace within organisations. Areas for MSD culture improvement were identified for each organisation. Reflections are made on the use and merits of the tool by ergonomists for addressing MSD risk.

  19. Can Public Health Risk Assessment Using Risk Matrices Be Misleading?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vatanpour, Shabnam; Hrudey, Steve E; Dinu, Irina

    2015-08-14

    The risk assessment matrix is a widely accepted, semi-quantitative tool for assessing risks, and setting priorities in risk management. Although the method can be useful to promote discussion to distinguish high risks from low risks, a published critique described a problem when the frequency and severity of risks are negatively correlated. A theoretical analysis showed that risk predictions could be misleading. We evaluated a practical public health example because it provided experiential risk data that allowed us to assess the practical implications of the published concern that risk matrices would make predictions that are worse than random. We explored this predicted problem by constructing a risk assessment matrix using a public health risk scenario-Tainted blood transfusion infection risk-That provides negative correlation between harm frequency and severity. We estimated the risk from the experiential data and compared these estimates with those provided by the risk assessment matrix. Although we validated the theoretical concern, for these authentic experiential data, the practical scope of the problem was limited. The risk matrix has been widely used in risk assessment. This method should not be abandoned wholesale, but users must address the source of the problem, apply the risk matrix with a full understanding of this problem and use matrix predictions to inform, but not drive decision-making.

  20. Quantitative 3D breast magnetic resonance imaging fibroglandular tissue analysis and correlation with qualitative assessments: a feasibility study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ha, Richard; Mema, Eralda; Guo, Xiaotao; Mango, Victoria; Desperito, Elise; Ha, Jason; Wynn, Ralph; Zhao, Binsheng

    2016-04-01

    The amount of fibroglandular tissue (FGT) has been linked to breast cancer risk based on mammographic density studies. Currently, the qualitative assessment of FGT on mammogram (MG) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is prone to intra and inter-observer variability. The purpose of this study is to develop an objective quantitative FGT measurement tool for breast MRI that could provide significant clinical value. An IRB approved study was performed. Sixty breast MRI cases with qualitative assessment of mammographic breast density and MRI FGT were randomly selected for quantitative analysis from routine breast MRIs performed at our institution from 1/2013 to 12/2014. Blinded to the qualitative data, whole breast and FGT contours were delineated on T1-weighted pre contrast sagittal images using an in-house, proprietary segmentation algorithm which combines the region-based active contours and a level set approach. FGT (%) was calculated by: [segmented volume of FGT (mm(3))/(segmented volume of whole breast (mm(3))] ×100. Statistical correlation analysis was performed between quantified FGT (%) on MRI and qualitative assessments of mammographic breast density and MRI FGT. There was a significant positive correlation between quantitative MRI FGT assessment and qualitative MRI FGT (r=0.809, n=60, Pqualitative MRI FGT assessment and mammographic density assessment (r=0.725, n=60, Pqualitative assessment categories of FGT correlated with the calculated mean quantitative FGT (%) of 4.61% (95% CI, 0-12.3%), 8.74% (7.3-10.2%), 18.1% (15.1-21.1%), 37.4% (29.5-45.3%). Quantitative measures of FGT (%) were computed with data derived from breast MRI and correlated significantly with conventional qualitative assessments. This quantitative technique may prove to be a valuable tool in clinical use by providing computer generated standardized measurements with limited intra or inter-observer variability.

  1. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szabo Alina

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

  2. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    their relationship. The experiences accumulated during the preparation of several case studies in a large scale international project (RAPID) are used for argumentation and formulation of recommendations on how risk assessment can be systematically integrated into the HIA process. Risk assessment uses well...... than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... in the risk appraisal phase to describe effects of various factors on different health outcomes. Consequently, HIA is typically led by a large, preferably intersectoral steering group with representatives of communities at risk. Risk assessment, in contrary, is mainly a licensed scientific process completed...

  3. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  4. Risk assessment terminology: risk communication part 1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaetano Liuzzo

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens’ involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication are discussed.

  5. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  6. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stahlmann, Ralf

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  7. Heroin shortage in Coastal Kenya: A rapid assessment and qualitative analysis of heroin users’ experiences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mital, Sasha; Miles, Gillian; McLellan-Lemal, Eleanor; Muthui, Mercy; Needle, Richard

    2016-01-01

    Introduction While relatively rare events, abrupt disruptions in heroin availability have a significant impact on morbidity and mortality risk among those who are heroin dependent. A heroin shortage occurred in Coast Province, Kenya from December 2010 to March 2011. This qualitative analysis describes the shortage events and consequences from the perspective of heroin users, along with implications for health and other public sectors. Methods As part of a rapid assessment, 66 key informant interviews and 15 focus groups among heroin users in Coast Province, Kenya were conducted. A qualitative thematic analysis was undertaken in Atlas.ti. to identify salient themes related to the shortage. Results Overall, participant accounts were rooted in a theme of desperation and uncertainty, with emphasis on six sub-themes: (1) withdrawal and strategies for alleviating withdrawal, including use of medical intervention and other detoxification attempts; (2) challenges of dealing with unpredictable drug availability, cost, and purity; (3) changes in drug use patterns, and actions taken to procure heroin and other drugs; (4) modifications in drug user relationship dynamics and networks, including introduction of risky group-level injection practices; (5) family and community response; and (6) new challenges with the heroin market resurgence. Conclusions The heroin shortage led to a series of consequences for drug users, including increased risk of morbidity, mortality and disenfranchisement at social and structural levels. Availability of evidence-based services for drug users and emergency preparedness plans could have mitigated this impact. PMID:26470646

  8. Value of qualitative assessment of general movements and electroencephalogram in prediction of high-risk neonatal neurodevelopmental outcome%全身运动质量评估和脑电图预测高危新生儿神经发育结局的价值

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    冯军坛; 阮毅燕; 陈艳; 梁晓竹

    2015-01-01

    目的:探讨全身运动( GMs)质量评估和脑电图( EEG)对高危新生儿神经发育结局的早期预测价值。方法高危新生儿110例,出生1个月内接受2次GMs质量评估,并进行1次EEG检查;在纠正年龄为1岁时进行神经系统检测判断是否为脑瘫,同时采用Gesell发育量表进行发育商评估,并以之为诊断“金标准”。对比GMs、EEG及GMs+EEG预测高危新生儿神经发育结局的效果。结果患儿纠正年龄为1岁时“金标准”诊断结果为脑瘫4例(3.64%),精神运动发育迟缓27例(24.55%),正常79例(71.82%)。110例高危儿中GMs异常38例,正常72例;EEG检查异常29例,正常81例。GMs质量评估预测高危新生儿神经发育结局的敏感度、特异度、阳性预测值、阴性预测值分别为83.87%、84.81%、68.42%和93.06%, EEG 检查分别为70.97%、91.14%、75.86%和88.89%,GMs +EEG 分别为90.48%、95.45%、86.36%和96.92%。结论 GMs质量评估与EEG 检查对高危新生儿不良神经发育结局都有较高的预测价值; GMs 质量评估联合EEG检查可大大提高预测高危新生儿不良神经发育结局的效果。%Objective To investigate the early predictive value of qualitative assessment of general movements ( GMs ) and electroencephalogram ( EEG ) for high-risk neonatal neurodevelopmental outcome .Methods One hundred and ten high-risk newborns received the qualitative assessment of general movements twice and EEG examination once within one month after birth .They were qiven the neurological test to determine whether they suffered from cerebral palsy at the corrected age of 1 year old,while Gesell developmental scale was adopted to conduct the development quotient assessment ,which was considered as the gold standard for diagnosis .A comparative analysis of the effects of GMs ,EEG and GMs+EEG applied to predicting high-risk neonatal

  9. Regional ecological risk assessment for the introduction of Gambusia affinis (western mosquitofish) into Montana watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jerome J. Schleier; Sing Sharlene E.; Robert K. D. Peterson

    2008-01-01

    Qualitative risk assessment methodologies were used to assess the risk of establishment and consequent impacts on native minnows and species of concern (SOC) associated with the intentional or unintentional introduction of the mosquito biological control agent, Gambusia affinis, to various Montana watersheds. Gambusia affinis...

  10. Physical characterization of MMVF for risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, T

    1995-10-01

    Size and other physical properties of MMVF play a central role in risk assessment. They can be affected by, for example, conditions during manufacturing, and preparation prior to administration to experimental animals or cells. It is suggested that a necessary requirement for stating that an experiment has been repeated should be documented evidence that: (i) the administered fibres are alike when analysed with not less than a minimum number of well-established methods on single fibre and on bulk sample level; and (ii) doses must be equal, and the fibre concentrations and sizes at the primary target tissue must be documented. Assessment of fibre toxicity and assessment of potential for exposure are equally important in the risk assessment process. The physics of fibrous dust release is described and methods for a priori assessment of exposure are classified into three levels depending on the analytical effort involved: (1) direct analysis of the fibrous bulk material; (2) bench-scale test; and (3) full-scale tests of prefabricated insulation material in a test room during standardized insulation work. For the first method, two approaches are investigated. One relates the size-dependent measures (the mass of fibres with D fractions (the fraction of total fibre length with D fraction of WHO fibre number, and the fraction of fibre number with D fractions only range up to 2 orders of magnitude and are almost independent on GSD(D) for nominal diameters ranging 2-4 microns. The combined effect on exposure of bulk fibre size, and of addition of oil and binder, should be assessed by the rotating drum dustiness test. The gold standard test of prefabricated MMVF products should be a full-scale simulation. The slope of the curve relating overall average product nominal diameter and airborne fibre concentrations on a log-log scale [Esmen et al., Am. ind. Hyg. Ass.J. 40, 108-117 (1979)] has been confirmed on a qualitative basis using model calculations, so that this relation

  11. Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 11/12/2014 Risk Calculator About the Tool Colorectal Cancer Risk Factors Download SAS and Gauss Code Page ... Rectal Cancer: Prevention, Genetics, Causes Tests to Detect Colorectal Cancer and Polyps Cancer Risk Prediction Resources Update November ...

  12. From Hazard to Risk - Assessing the Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Madsen, C.B.; Houben, G.; Hattersley, S.; Crevel, R.W.R.; Remington, B.C.; Baumert, J.L.

    2013-01-01

    Regulatory thresholds for allergenic foods have not yet been developed. This means that public and industrial risk managers do not have regulatory thresholds to decide if a content or level of contamination is acceptable or not. For a long time, data have been inadequate to define safe thresholds fo

  13. Fuzzy based risk register for construction project risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuchta, Dorota; Ptaszyńska, Ewa

    2017-07-01

    The paper contains fuzzy based risk register used to identify risks which appear in construction projects and to assess their attributes. Risk is considered here as a possible event with negative consequences for the project [4]. We use different risk attributes in the proposed risk register. Values of risk attributes are generated by using fuzzy numbers. Specific risk attributes have different importance for project managers of construction projects. To compare specific risk attributes we use methods of fuzzy numbers ranking. The main strengths of the proposed concept in managing construction projects are also presented in the paper.

  14. Advances in the assessment of suicide risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryan, Craig J; Rudd, M David

    2006-02-01

    This article reviews and integrates empirically grounded advances in the assessment of suicidality. The practices discussed are consistent with existing standards of care, practice guidelines, and applicable research. The authors differentiate between risk assessment and prediction and then emphasize the important role of time in risk assessment. We present and illustrate a continuum of suicidality for risk assessment and offer practical recommendations for clinical decision making and treatment. (c) 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  15. Gender differences in risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine R. Harris

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Across many real-world domains, men engage in more risky behaviors than do women. To examine some of the beliefs and preferences that underlie this difference, 657 participants assessed their likelihood of engaging in various risky activities relating to four different domains (gambling, health, recreation, and social, and reported their perceptions of (1 probability of negative outcomes, (2 severity of potential negative outcomes, and (3 enjoyment expected from the risky activities. Women's greater perceived likelihood of negative outcomes and lesser expectation of enjoyment partially mediated their lower propensity toward risky choices in gambling, recreation, and health domains. Perceptions of severity of potential outcomes was a partial mediator in the gambling and health domains. The genders did not differ in their propensity towards taking social risks. A fifth domain of activities associated with high potential payoffs and fixed minor costs was also assessed. In contrast to other domains, women reported being more likely to engage in behaviors in this domain. This gender difference was partially mediated by women's more optimistic judgments of the probability of good outcomes and of

  16. Risk assessment techniques with applicability in marine engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudenko, E.; Panaitescu, F. V.; Panaitescu, M.

    2015-11-01

    Nowadays risk management is a carefully planned process. The task of risk management is organically woven into the general problem of increasing the efficiency of business. Passive attitude to risk and awareness of its existence are replaced by active management techniques. Risk assessment is one of the most important stages of risk management, since for risk management it is necessary first to analyze and evaluate risk. There are many definitions of this notion but in general case risk assessment refers to the systematic process of identifying the factors and types of risk and their quantitative assessment, i.e. risk analysis methodology combines mutually complementary quantitative and qualitative approaches. Purpose of the work: In this paper we will consider as risk assessment technique Fault Tree analysis (FTA). The objectives are: understand purpose of FTA, understand and apply rules of Boolean algebra, analyse a simple system using FTA, FTA advantages and disadvantages. Research and methodology: The main purpose is to help identify potential causes of system failures before the failures actually occur. We can evaluate the probability of the Top event.The steps of this analize are: the system's examination from Top to Down, the use of symbols to represent events, the use of mathematical tools for critical areas, the use of Fault tree logic diagrams to identify the cause of the Top event. Results: In the finally of study it will be obtained: critical areas, Fault tree logical diagrams and the probability of the Top event. These results can be used for the risk assessment analyses.

  17. Quantitative risk assessment methods for cancer and noncancer effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baynes, Ronald E

    2012-01-01

    Human health risk assessments have evolved from the more qualitative approaches to more quantitative approaches in the past decade. This has been facilitated by the improvement in computer hardware and software capability and novel computational approaches being slowly recognized by regulatory agencies. These events have helped reduce the reliance on experimental animals as well as better utilization of published animal toxicology data in deriving quantitative toxicity indices that may be useful for risk management purposes. This chapter briefly describes some of the approaches as described in the guidance documents from several of the regulatory agencies as it pertains to hazard identification and dose-response assessment of a chemical. These approaches are contrasted with more novel computational approaches that provide a better grasp of the uncertainty often associated with chemical risk assessments. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša T. Bakrač

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

  19. Qualitative work overload and other risk factors related to hypertension risk among Indonesian Police Mobile Brigade (Brimob

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riri N. Kanam

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Members of the Police Mobile Brigade (Brimob can suffer from hypertension which is related to work stressors and other risk factors. This study aimed to identify the relationship between work stressors and other hypertensive risk factors. The subjects of this cross-sectional study were members of the Brimob undergoing their periodic medical check-up during July-October 2007. A subject was hypertensive if systolic blood pressure (SBP was 140 mmHg or higher, or diastolic (DBD 90 mmHg, or higher or taking antihypertensive drugs. Normal subjects were those who had SBP less than 120 mmHg and DBP less than 80 mmHg, and have never been diagnosed with hypertension. A number of 336 Brimobs aged 21 to 51 years participated in this study, 111 had high blood pressure and 79 had normal blood pressure. Hypertension was found to be related to excessive body weight and qualitative work overload. Age, work, lifestyle, history of diabetes, hypertension in the family, and other work stressors were not found to increase the risk of hypertension. Medium to high level qualitative work overload had a two-fold risk for hypertension [relative risk adjusted (RRa = 2.00; 95% confidence interval (CI = 0.97-4.14; p = 0.060]. Overweight subjects had 48% increased risk to hypertension (RRa = 1.48; 95% CI = 0.98-2.22. Obese subjects had a two-fold risk of being hypertensive (RRa = 2.21; 95%CI = 1.51 - 3.14. Qualitative work overload and obesity increased the risk of hypertension. These risk factors should therefore be controlled. (Med J Indones 2008; 17: 188-96Keywords: hypertension, qualitative work overload, overweight, obese

  20. Lessons learned from a qualitative sustainability assessment method “Farm Talks”

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Olde, de E.M.; Derkzen, P.H.M.; Oudshoorn, Frank W.; Sorensen, C.A.G.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a qualitative peer review “Farm Talks” method which stimulates farmers’ learning beyond existing quantitative sustainability assessment tools. Farm Talks were started in 2008 by the biodynamic farming association and the Demeter organization in the Netherlands as a qualitative

  1. Lessons learned from a qualitative sustainability assessment method “Farm Talks”

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Olde, de E.M.; Derkzen, P.H.M.; Oudshoorn, Frank W.; Sorensen, C.A.G.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a qualitative peer review “Farm Talks” method which stimulates farmers’ learning beyond existing quantitative sustainability assessment tools. Farm Talks were started in 2008 by the biodynamic farming association and the Demeter organization in the Netherlands as a qualitative al

  2. The Reflective Model of Intercultural Competency: A Multidimensional, Qualitative Approach to Study Abroad Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Tracy Rundstrom

    2009-01-01

    Judging from the recent surge in research on outcomes assessment, many study abroad offices rely on quantitative surveys and measures to collect student outcomes data. This paper presents a multidimensional, qualitative approach to data collection. This approach makes qualitative data easy to collect and encourages students to reflect and…

  3. To Learn More about Learning: The Value-Added Role of Qualitative Approaches to Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newhart, Daniel W.

    2015-01-01

    As we face increasing accountability in higher education, how we measure student learning should exceed the calls for an account of learning that places students at the center. Qualitative approaches to assessment and theoretical underpinnings gleaned from the qualitative research tradition may provide a way that we can support a more holistic…

  4. Pressure sore risk assessment in palliative care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaplin, J

    2000-01-01

    Pressure sore prevention in palliative care is recognized as being an essential element of holistic care, with the primary goal of promoting quality of life for patient and family. Little is known about the incidence of pressure sore development and the use of pressure sore risk assessment tools in palliative care settings. The development of a risk assessment tool specifically for palliative care patients in a 41-bedded specialist palliative care unit is described. The risk assessment tool was developed as part of a tissue viability practice development initiative. The approach adopted in the validation of the Hunters Hill Marie Curie Centre pressure sore risk assessment tool was the comparative analysis of professional judgment of experienced palliative care nurses with the numerical scores achieved during the assessment of risk on 291 patients (529 risk assessment events). This comparative analysis identified the threshold for different degrees of risk for the patient group involved: low risk, medium risk, high risk and very high risk. Further work is being undertaken to evaluate the inter-rater reliability of the new tool. A number of issues are explored in this paper in relation to pressure sore prevention in palliative care: the role of risk assessment tools, the sometimes conflicting aims of trying to ensure comfort and prevent pressure sore damage, and the uncertainties faced by palliative care nurses when they are trying to maintain quality of life for the dying.

  5. [Application of three risk assessment models in occupational health risk assessment of dimethylformamide].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Z J; Xu, B; Jiang, H; Zheng, M; Zhang, M; Zhao, W J; Cheng, J

    2016-08-20

    Objective: To investigate the application of United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) inhalation risk assessment model, Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model, and occupational hazards risk assessment index method in occupational health risk in enterprises using dimethylformamide (DMF) in a certain area in Jiangsu, China, and to put forward related risk control measures. Methods: The industries involving DMF exposure in Jiangsu province were chosen as the evaluation objects in 2013 and three risk assessment models were used in the evaluation. EPA inhalation risk assessment model: HQ=EC/RfC; Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model: Risk= (HR×ER) (1/2); Occupational hazards risk assessment index=2(Health effect level)×2(exposure ratio)×Operation condition level. Results: The results of hazard quotient (HQ>1) from EPA inhalation risk assessment model suggested that all the workshops (dry method, wet method and printing) and work positions (pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting) were high risk. The results of Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model indicated that the workshop risk level of dry method, wet method and printing were 3.5 (high) , 3.5 (high) and 2.8 (general) , and position risk level of pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting were 4 (high) , 4 (high) , 2.8 (general) , 2.8 (general) and 2.8 (general) . The results of occupational hazards risk assessment index method demonstrated that the position risk index of pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting were 42 (high) , 33 (high) , 23 (middle) , 21 (middle) and 22 (middle) . The results of Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model and occupational hazards risk assessment index method were similar, while EPA inhalation risk assessment model indicated all the workshops and positions were high risk. Conclusion: The occupational hazards risk assessment index method fully considers health effects, exposure, and operating conditions

  6. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  7. Estimation of Uncertainty in Risk Assessment of Hydrogen Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Markert, Frank; Krymsky, V.; Kozine, Igor

    2011-01-01

    the permitting authorities request qualitative and quantitative risk assessments (QRA) to show the safety and acceptability in terms of failure frequencies and respective consequences. For new technologies not all statistical data might be established or are available in good quality causing assumptions......Hydrogen technologies such as hydrogen fuelled vehicles and refuelling stations are being tested in practice in a number of projects (e.g. HyFleet-Cute and Whistler project) giving valuable information on the reliability and maintenance requirements. In order to establish refuelling stations...... probability and the NUSAP concept to quantify uncertainties of new not fully qualified hydrogen technologies and implications to risk management....

  8. Assessing Human Health Risk from Pesticides

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA protects human health and the environment by evaluating the risk associated with pesticides before allowing them to be used in the United States. Learn about the tools and processes used in risk assessment for pesticides.

  9. Colon Cancer Risk Assessment - Gauss Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.

  10. Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rausand, Marvin

    2011-01-01

    With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

  11. Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Hattersley, S.; Buck, J.;

    2009-01-01

    the area forward. Three possible approaches to safety assessment and risk assessment for allergenic foods were presented and discussed: safety assessment using NOAEL/LOAEL and uncertainty factors, safety assessment using Benchmark Dose and Margin of Exposure (MoE), and risk assessment using probabilistic...... models. The workshop concluded that all the three approaches to safety and risk assessment of allergenic foods should continue to be considered. A particular strength of the MoE and probabilistic approaches is that they do not rely on low-dose extrapolations with its inherent issues. Probabilistic...

  12. RISK ASSESSMENT PROCEDURE FOR CIVIL AIRPORT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalia Distefano

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available A practical problem in air transport is how to manage risk and safety. In recent years have been developed special technical and managerial skills to the systematic, forward looking identification and control of hazards throughout the life cycle of a project, program, or activity. Safety Management System (SMS involves identifying, evaluating, and addressing of hazards or risk. Its sole purpose is to prevent accidents. Safety risk assessment is defined as the systematic identification and evaluation of the risk posed by the complete spectrum of possible accident scenarios. Risk assessment is a tool that supports decision making and as such supports risk management. Risk management comprises the safety optimization of the system, the verification process and risk acceptance, which support airport operations. This paper proposed a quantitative methodology for the risk assessment for a civil airport, which is based on historical data of aircraft accidents, contained in the Aviation Safety Network database, from 1 January 1980 to 31 December 2010.

  13. Risk communication in environmental assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rahm-Crites, L. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., Germantown, MD (United States). Washington Operations Office

    1996-08-26

    Since the enactment of NEPA and other environmental legislation, the concept of `risk communication` has expanded from simply providing citizens with scientific information about risk to exploring ways of making risk information genuinely meaningful to the public and facilitating public involvement in the very processes whereby risk is analyzed and managed. Contemporary risk communication efforts attempt to find more effective ways of conveying increasingly complex risk information and to develop more democratic and proactive approaches to community involvement, in particular to ensuring the participation of diverse populations in risk decisions. Although considerable progress has been made in a relatively short time, risk communication researchers and practitioners currently face a number of challenges in a time of high expectations, low trust, and low budgets.

  14. Integration of expert knowledge and uncertainty in natural risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baruffini, Mirko; Jaboyedoff, Michel

    2010-05-01

    Natural hazards occurring in alpine regions during the last decades have clearly shown that interruptions of the Swiss railway power supply and closures of the Gotthard highway due to those events have increased the awareness of infrastructure vulnerability also in Switzerland and illustrate the potential impacts of failures on the performance of infrastructure systems. This asks for a high level of surveillance and preservation along the transalpine lines. Traditional simulation models are only partially capable to predict complex systems behaviours and the subsequently designed and implemented protection strategies are not able to mitigate the full spectrum of risk consequences. They are costly, and maximal protection is most probably not economically feasible. In addition, the quantitative risk assessment approaches such as fault tree analysis, event tree analysis and equivalent annual fatality analysis rely heavily on statistical information. Collecting sufficient data to base a statistical probability of risk is costly and, in many situations, such data does not exist; thus, expert knowledge and experience or engineering judgment can be exploited to estimate risk qualitatively. In order to overcome the statistics lack we used models based on expert's knowledge in order to qualitatively predict based on linguistic appreciation that are more expressive and natural in risk assessment. Fuzzy reasoning (FR) can be used providing a mechanism of computing with words (Zadeh, 1965) for modelling qualitative human thought processes in analyzing complex systems and decisions. Uncertainty in predicting the risk levels arises from such situations because no fully-formalized knowledge are available. Another possibility is to use probability based on triangular probability density function (T-PDF) that can be used to follow the same flow-chart as FR. We implemented the Swiss natural hazard recommendations FR and probability using T-PDF in order to obtain hazard zoning and

  15. [Identification of risk factors for work-related stress in a hospital: a qualitative and quantitative approach].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortese, C G; Gerbaudo, Laura; Manconi, Maria Paola; Violante, B

    2013-01-01

    Italian legislation establishes the obligation for the employer to assess any risks to the safety and health of workers, including those relating to work-related stress (WRS). Several studies have proved the existence of a link between WRS and both individual diseases and organizational results. The research aimed at detecting WRS risk factors in a hospital consisting of 53 departments employing 2334 workers. A qualitative and quantitative approach was adopted divided into six steps: 1) analysis of the hospital indicators; 2) semistructured interviews of the 53 department heads; 3) preparation of a checklist including 42 WRS risk indicators; 4) observation by shadowing of the 53 departments; 5) setting up of 53 focus groups with staff from each department; 6) distribution of the check-list to a representative sample of 747 employees. Data analysis showed a "low" level of WRS risk regarding the hospital as a whole, a "medium" level regarding six transversal indicators and eight departments. Three indicators considered particularly significant were examined in detail: "workplace and ergonomic conditions", "shift work", "interruptions in work flow". The results helped to identifj a series of best practices aimed at reducing WRS risk that are applicable to other health care settings. The qualitative and quantitative approach produced a keen involvement of the employees of the hospital which will positively encourage the real efficacy of the measures taken.

  16. Dating Violence among High-Risk Young Women: A Systematic Review Using Quantitative and Qualitative Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lauren E. Joly

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Our systematic review identified 21 quantitative articles and eight qualitative articles addressing dating violence among high risk young women. The groups of high-risk young women in this review include street-involved, justice-involved, pregnant or parenting, involved with Child Protective Services, and youth diagnosed with a mental health issue. Our meta-analysis of the quantitative articles indicated that 34% (CI = 0.24–0.45 of high-risk young women report that they have been victims of physical dating violence and 45% (CI = 0.31–0.61 of these young women report perpetrating physical dating violence. Significant moderator variables included questionnaire and timeframe. Meta-synthesis of the qualitative studies revealed that high-risk young women report perpetrating dating violence to gain power and respect, whereas women report becoming victims of dating violence due to increased vulnerability.

  17. Racing risk, gendering responsibility: a qualitative study of how South African students talk about sexual risk and responsibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Riet, Mary; Nicholson, Tamaryn Jane

    2014-01-01

    Individuals' perceptions of risk have implications for whether and how they engage with protective strategies. This study investigated how sexual risk, specifically HIV and pregnancy and responsibility for these risks were constructed in discussions across five groups of youth in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The qualitative study used focus groups and interviews with a sample of 28 tertiary level students and 7 peri-urban youth. The constructions of risk intersected with raced and gendered narratives around sexual risk and responsibility. These constructions were used by the participants to assign and displace responsibility for the risks of HIV and pregnancy, rendering some groups immune to these risks. This constitutes a form of stigmatisation and also has implications for participants' prevention practices.

  18. Evaluating assessment quality in competence-based education: A qualitative comparison of two frameworks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baartman, Liesbeth; Bastiaens, Theo; Kirschner, Paul A.; Van der Vleuten, Cees

    2009-01-01

    Baartman, L. K. J., Bastiaens, T. J., Kirschner, P. A., & Van der Vleuten, C. P. M. (2007). Evaluation assessment quality in competence-based education: A qualitative comparison of two frameworks. Educational Research Review, 2, 114-129.

  19. Qualitative assessment of patients’ attitudes and expectations toward BCIs and implications for future technology development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schicktanz, Silke; Amelung, Till; Rieger, Jochem W.

    2015-01-01

    Brain–computer–interfaces (BCIs) are important for the next generation of neuro-prosthesis innovations. Only few pilot projects have tested patients’ abilities to control BCIs as well as their satisfaction with the offered technologies. On the one hand, little is known about patients’ moral attitudes toward the benefit-risk-ratio of BCIs as well as their needs, priorities, and expectations. On the other hand, ethics experts intensively discuss the general risks of BCIs as well as the limits of neuro-enhancement. To our knowledge, we present here the first qualitative interview study with ten chronic patients matching the potential user categories for motor and communication BCIs to assess their practical and moral attitudes toward this technology. The interviews reveal practical and moral attitudes toward motor BCIs that can impact future technology development. We discuss our empirical findings on patients’ perspectives and compare them to neuroscientists’ and ethicists’ perspectives. Our analysis indicates only partial overlap between the potential users’ and the experts’ assessments of BCI-technology. It points out the importance of considering the needs and desires of the targeted patient group. Based on our findings, we suggest a multi-fold approach to the development of clinical BCIs, rooted in the participatory technology-development. We conclude that clinical BCI development needs to be explored in a disease-related and culturally sensitive way. PMID:25964745

  20. Qualitative assessment of patients’ attitudes and expectations towards BCIs and implications for future technology development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silke eSchicktanz

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Brain-Computer-Interfaces (BCIs are important for the next generation of neuro-prosthesis innovations. Only few pilot projects have tested patients’ abilities to control BCIs as well as their satisfaction with the offered technologies. On the one hand, little is known about patients’ moral attitudes towards the benefit-risk-ratio of BCIs as well as their needs, priorities, and expectations. On the other hand, ethics experts intensively discuss the general risks of BCIs as well as the limits of neuro-enhancement. To our knowledge, we present here the first qualitative interview study with ten chronic patients matching the potential user categories for motor and communication BCIs to assess their practical and moral attitudes towards this technology. The interviews reveal practical and moral attitudes towards motor BCIs that can impact future technology development. We discuss our empirical findings on patients’ perspectives and compare them to neuroscientists’ and ethicists’ perspectives. This analysis indicates only partial overlap between the potential users’ and the experts’ assessments of BCI-technology. It points out the importance of considering the needs and desires of the targeted patient group. Based on our findings, we suggest a multi-fold approach to the development of clinical BCIs, rooted in the participatory technology-development. We conclude that clinical BCI development needs to be explored in a disease-related and culturally sensitive way.

  1. Factors Related to Cardiovascular Disease Risk Reduction in Midlife and Older Women: A Qualitative Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death for women in the United States. Although a healthy diet and appropriate physical activity can help reduce risk, few women are engaging in these behaviors. In this study, qualitative methods were used to better understand: knowledge and aware...

  2. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial - Primer

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document provides a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) primer that organizes QMRA tutorials. The tutorials describe functionality of a QMRA infrastructure, guide the user through software use and assessment options, provide step-by-step instructions for implementi...

  3. Revised Human Health Risk Assessment on Chlorpyrifos

    Science.gov (United States)

    We have revised our human health risk assessment and drinking water exposure assessment for chlorpyrifos that supported our October 2015 proposal to revoke all food residue tolerances for chlorpyrifos. Learn about the revised analysis.

  4. Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a tool for environmental assessment of product and systems – over the whole life cycle from acquisition of raw materials to the end-of-life of the product – and encompassing all environmental impacts of emissions and resource usage, e.g. global warming, acidification...... the emissions, how should they be defined and classified and what should be measured? LCA have many of these issues in common with RA. There is a need to understand which properties of nanomaterials are crucial for the assessment of their potential transformation and fate as well as their ability to cause...... adverse effects on target organisms or systems. If we want to be able to assess toxic impacts both in LCA and in RA these issues need to be addressed by the RA community and the LCA community must follow closely the progress made....

  5. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  6. Risk assessment methodology in oil shale mining

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sabanov, S. [Tallinn Univ. of Technology, Tallinn (Estonia)

    2009-07-01

    The safety challenges posed by different mining processes were discussed in terms of geotechnical risk factors. Various mining processes can result in work hazards, a production shut-down, economic damage to the enterprise, and environmental impacts. In Estonia, risk assessment methods are utilized in different branches of industry. However, the literature on solving mining problems is limited. Various methods are applicable for solving complicated mining problems. This paper elaborated on a modified risk assessment methodology for oil shale mining in Estonia. The paper specifically discussed problems associated with oil shale mining as well as risk assessment methods such as risk analysis and risk evaluation. Topics that were introduced included risk analysis; risk identification; risk estimation; risk evaluation; risk mitigation; and risk acceptance. The modified risk assessment methodology was successfully applied to the extraction of mineral resources, stability of a mining block, and their influence on the environment. It was concluded that the methodology provides opportunity to find improved methods for new mine planning in accordance with environmental performances and the economical profit for companies. 8 refs., 2 figs.

  7. Risk assessment of plant protection products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hardy T

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available

    EFSA’s Panel on Plant Protection Products and their Residues (PPR Panel provides independent scientific advice in the field of risk assessment of plant protection products (PPPs, pesticides. Since its establishment in 2003 under Regulation (EC No 178/2002, it has delivered a series of scientific outputs in support of evaluation of pesticide active substances, establishing scientific principles and guidance documents in the field of pesticide risk assessment and in support of decision making of European Union (EU law makers. Next to a series of scientific opinions evaluating specific adverse effects of PPPs for human health (like for instance carcinogenicity the Panel also delivered scientific opinions on general principles in the field of human health risk assessment (like reference value setting and is, in particular over the last years, very much engaged in development of methodologies to meet new challenges in regulatory risk assessments such as assessment of toxicity of pesticide metabolites and potential cumulative effects of pesticides to human health. Fate, behaviour and transformation of pesticides after their application and consequent release to the environment are a major aspect of pesticide risk assessment. The PPR Panel has achieved major accomplishments by delivering guidance and scientific opinions on degradation in soil, exposure of soil organisms and assessment of environmental risks by use of pesticides in greenhouses or grown under cover. A series of scientific opinions have been delivered also in the field of environmental risk assessment of pesticides. Scientific output covered specific issues arising in the peer review of specific active substances, revision of data requirements, development of risk assessment methodologies and the development of guidance documents. A major milestone of the PPR Panel was the development of the methodological framework for deriving specific protection goals for environmental risk

  8. Production Risk Assessing Methodology (PRAM).

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-05-01

    the price up five-fold which translates to $30.M. On the optimistic side,this same commodity market could bring the price down to one half of the price...57 PWMIW- A recognitinn that past product ion probl ems represent f ut ri , producto ; risk areas suggested an empirically developed risk structure

  9. Aquatic Macrophyte Risk Assessment for Pesticides

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maltby, L.; Arnold, D.; Arts, G.H.P.; Davies, J.; Heimbach, F.; Pickl, C.; Poulsen, V.

    2009-01-01

    Given the essential role that primary producers play in aquatic ecosystems, it is imperative that the potential risk of pesticides to the structure and functioning of aquatic plants is adequately assessed. This book discusses the assessment of the risk of pesticides with herbicidal activity to

  10. GHGT-11 - Integrated Carbon Risk Assessment (ICARAS)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wollenweber, J.; Busby, D.; Wessel-Berg, D.; Nepveu, M.; Bossie Codreanu, D.; Grimstad, A-A.; Sijacic, D.; Maurand, N.; Lothe, A.; Wahl, F.; Polak, S.; Boot, H.; Grøver, A.; Wildenborg, T.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper an integrated workflow is described for risk assessment within CCS. IFPEN, SINTEF and TNO joined forces to define a comprehensive and transparent risk assessment methodology. The tools developed in these institutes are thereby integrated. The workflow can be applied to proposed carbon

  11. Recovery in environmental risk assessment at EFSA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brock, T.C.M.

    2016-01-01

    EFSA performs environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for single potential stressors such as plant protection products, genetically modified organisms and feed additives and for invasive alien species that are harmful for plant health. In this risk assessment domain, the EFSA Scientific Committee

  12. Aquatic Macrophyte Risk Assessment for Pesticides

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maltby, L.; Arnold, D.; Arts, G.H.P.; Davies, J.; Heimbach, F.; Pickl, C.; Poulsen, V.

    2009-01-01

    Given the essential role that primary producers play in aquatic ecosystems, it is imperative that the potential risk of pesticides to the structure and functioning of aquatic plants is adequately assessed. This book discusses the assessment of the risk of pesticides with herbicidal activity to aquat

  13. Recovery in environmental risk assessment at EFSA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brock, T.C.M.

    2016-01-01

    EFSA performs environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for single potential stressors such as plant protection products, genetically modified organisms and feed additives and for invasive alien species that are harmful for plant health. In this risk assessment domain, the EFSA Scientific Committee reco

  14. Fuzzy sets applications for cancer risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molchanov, P A; Dudatiev, A V; Podobna, Y Y; Molchanova, O P

    2002-09-01

    The method of cancer risk assessment on the basis of the Fuzzy Set Theory is presented. The method is based on a multifactor risk assessment of cancer diseases. The individual risk of cancer disease is evaluated as the probability of disease multiplied by the value of an individual dose. An acupuncture method of cancer risk assessments was developed. The method is based on the analysis of changes of an electromagnetic field (biofield) of a person. The method allows to determine both cancer probability and probable location of the process.

  15. The naked truth about HIV and risk taking in Swedish prisons: A qualitative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindbom, Sigrid J A; Larsson, Markus; Agardh, Anette

    2017-01-01

    This qualitative study explores former prison inmates' perceptions and attitudes towards HIV risk inside Swedish prisons. In 2014, eight semi-structured interviews were conducted with former male prisoners to gain a deeper understanding of situations perceived to be associated with risk of HIV transmission. The material gathered from the interviews was analyzed by manifest and latent qualitative content analysis. The findings revealed that risky behavioral practices, such as sharing needles, unprotected sexual activity, and lack of openness about HIV status represented potential health threats with regard to the risk of HIV transmission. Evidence from the study indicates that educational interventions regarding HIV and the transmission routes are required for HIV prevention in Swedish prisons.

  16. Ethical review and the assessment of research proposals using qualitative research methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daly, Jeanne; Bandyopadhyay, Mridula; Riggs, Elisha; Williamson, Lara

    2008-07-01

    The role of Human Research Ethics Committees (HRECs) in health research is well established. Ethics committees have the good of research participants in mind but they must also assess scientific merit including the design and conduct of studies. In this article the authors' focus is on qualitative research method and the challenge that the National Statement on Ethical Conduct in Human Research (2007) poses for ethics committees when they assess proposals using the methods outlined in the National Statement. We set out a process for judging the standard of qualitative research proposals and propose that qualitative health research can be assessed using a hierarchy designed for evaluating interview studies. We contrast well-designed studies with those that have design flaws in order to focus on the hallmarks of research merit in studies that use qualitative research methods. Finally, we show that our proposal is compatible with the National Statement. Ethics review provides an early opportunity to identify and redesign inadequate studies that will not contribute to our knowledge base. The challenge for members of ethics committees with little experience in qualitative studies is to be able to assess research excellence by assessing research merit in proposals, recognising the special design features of qualitative research methods.

  17. Risk Assessment for an Unmanned Merchant Ship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ø.J. Rødseth

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The MUNIN project is doing a feasibility study on an unmanned bulk carrier on an intercontinental voyage. To develop the technical and operational concepts, MUNIN has used a risk-based design method, based on the Formal Safety Analysis method which is also recommended by the International Mari-time Organization. Scenario analysis has been used to identify risks and to simplify operational scope. Systematic hazard identification has been used to find critical safety and security risks and how to address these. Technology and operational concept testing is using a hypothesis-based test method, where the hypotheses have been created as a result of the risk assessment. Finally, the cost-benefit assessment will also use results from the risk assessment. This paper describes the risk assessment method, some of the most important results and also describes how the results have been or will be used in the different parts of the project.

  18. Caries risk assessment models in caries prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amila Zukanović

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Objective. The aim of this research was to assess the efficiency of different multifactor models in caries prediction. Material and methods. Data from the questionnaire and objective examination of 109 examinees was entered into the Cariogram, Previser and Caries-Risk Assessment Tool (CAT multifactor risk assessment models. Caries risk was assessed with the help of all three models for each patient, classifying them as low, medium or high-risk patients. The development of new caries lesions over a period of three years [Decay Missing Filled Tooth (DMFT increment = difference between Decay Missing Filled Tooth Surface (DMFTS index at baseline and follow up], provided for examination of the predictive capacity concerning different multifactor models. Results. The data gathered showed that different multifactor risk assessment models give significantly different results (Friedman test: Chi square = 100.073, p=0.000. Cariogram is the model which identified the majority of examinees as medium risk patients (70%. The other two models were more radical in risk assessment, giving more unfavorable risk –profiles for patients. In only 12% of the patients did the three multifactor models assess the risk in the same way. Previser and CAT gave the same results in 63% of cases – the Wilcoxon test showed that there is no statistically significant difference in caries risk assessment between these two models (Z = -1.805, p=0.071. Conclusions. Evaluation of three different multifactor caries risk assessment models (Cariogram, PreViser and CAT showed that only the Cariogram can successfully predict new caries development in 12-year-old Bosnian children.

  19. Qualitatively Different Ways of Experiencing Student Self-Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Kelvin H. K.

    2008-01-01

    In the literature, student self-assessment as a practice and as a goal in higher education is generally emphasized for academics. This paper reports a study that investigates what academics emphasize in their experiences of student self-assessment. The investigation focused on the different ways academics described their understanding and practise…

  20. The "Grignon Model"; Qualitative Assessment of Maize Cropping Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bohanec, M.; Messéan, A.; Scatasta, S.;

    An important goal of the SIGMEA project is to develop computer-based decision support systems (DSS) for the assessment of the......An important goal of the SIGMEA project is to develop computer-based decision support systems (DSS) for the assessment of the...

  1. Cheese Microbial Risk Assessments — A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyoung-Hee Choi

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Cheese is generally considered a safe and nutritious food, but foodborne illnesses linked to cheese consumption have occurred in many countries. Several microbial risk assessments related to Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli infections, causing cheese-related foodborne illnesses, have been conducted. Although the assessments of microbial risk in soft and low moisture cheeses such as semi-hard and hard cheeses have been accomplished, it has been more focused on the correlations between pathogenic bacteria and soft cheese, because cheese-associated foodborne illnesses have been attributed to the consumption of soft cheeses. As a part of this microbial risk assessment, predictive models have been developed to describe the relationship between several factors (pH, Aw, starter culture, and time and the fates of foodborne pathogens in cheese. Predictions from these studies have been used for microbial risk assessment as a part of exposure assessment. These microbial risk assessments have identified that risk increased in cheese with high moisture content, especially for raw milk cheese, but the risk can be reduced by preharvest and postharvest preventions. For accurate quantitative microbial risk assessment, more data including interventions such as curd cooking conditions (temperature and time and ripening period should be available for predictive models developed with cheese, cheese consumption amounts and cheese intake frequency data as well as more dose-response models.

  2. Risk Assessment: Perchloroethylene Dry Cleaners Refined Human Health Risk Characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    This November 2005 memo and appendices describe the methods by which EPA conducted its refined risk assessment of the Major Source and Area Source facilities within the perchloroethylene (perc) dry cleaners source category.

  3. 78 FR 14510 - Notice of Availability of New Guidelines for Pest Risk Assessments of Imported Fruits and Vegetables

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-06

    ... Assessments of Imported Fruits and Vegetables AGENCY: Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, USDA. ACTION... health pest risk assessments for imported fruit and vegetable commodities. These new guidelines are...-initiated, qualitative pest risk assessments (PRAs) for imports of fruits and vegetables. A PRA is defined...

  4. Profiles of risk: a qualitative study of injecting drug users in Tehran, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Green Traci

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In Iran, there are an estimated 200,000 injecting drug users (IDUs. Injecting drug use is a relatively new phenomenon for this country, where opium smoking was the predominant form of drug use for hundreds of years. As in many countries experiencing a rise in injecting drug use, HIV/AIDS in Iran is associated with the injection of drugs, accounting for transmission of more than two-thirds of HIV infections. This study aimed to: describe the range of characteristics of IDUs in Tehran, Iran's capital city; 2 examine the injecting-related HIV risk behaviors of IDUs, and 3 suggest necessary interventions to prevent HIV transmission among IDUs and their families and sex partners. Methods Using rapid assessment and response methods with a qualitative focus, six districts of Tehran were selected for study. A total of 81 key informants from different sectors and 154 IDUs were selected by purposeful, opportunistic and snowball sampling, then interviewed. Ethnographic observations were done for mapping and studying injecting-related HIV risk settings and behaviors. Modified content analysis methods were used to analyze the data and extract typologies of injecting drug users in Tehran. Results Evidence of injecting drug use and drug-related harm was found in 5 of 6 study districts. Several profiles of IDUs were identified: depending on their socioeconomic status and degree of stability, IDUs employed different injecting behaviors and syringe hygiene practices. The prevalence of sharing injection instruments ranged from 30–100%. Varied magnitudes of risk were evident among the identified IDU typologies in terms of syringe disinfection methods, level of HIV awareness, and personal hygiene exhibited. At the time of research, there were no active HIV prevention programs in existence in Tehran. Conclusion The recent rise of heroin injection in Iran is strongly associated with HIV risk. Sharing injection instruments is a common and complex

  5. Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology.

  6. Survey: Risk Assessment for Cloud Computing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Drissi S.

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available with the increase in the growth of cloud computing and the changes in technology that have resulted a new ways for cloud providers to deliver their services to cloud consumers, the cloud consumers should be aware of the risks and vulnerabilities present in the current cloud computing environment. An information security risk assessment is designed specifically for that task. However, there is lack of structured risk assessment approach to do it. This paper aims to survey existing knowledge regarding risk assessment for cloud computing and analyze existing use cases from cloud computing to identify the level of risk assessment realization in state of art systems and emerging challenges for future research.

  7. Assessing qualitative usability in life-threatening, time-critical and unstable situations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nestler, Simon

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We developed a heuristic for assessing the usability of mobile user-interfaces in life-threating, time-critical and unstable situations in a qualitative way. The major advantages of our approach as opposed to standardized quantitative questionnaires is the independence from a baseline, the possibility to make absolute statements and the potential for adaptations. When creating a qualitative semi structured interview we adhere to the common modus operandi of the qualitative social research. On the basis of 17 common quantitative questionnaires on usability we identified the five major categories Utility, Intuitiveness, Memorability, Learnability and Personal Effect. We selected all questions from the questionnaires which are useful for assessing the usability of user-interfaces in emergencies. Furthermore, we rephrased the closed-ended questions to open-ended ones. The quantification of research results is possible by weighting the qualitative results in dependence to the research question.

  8. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  9. A qualitative descriptive study of risk reduction for coronary disease among the Hong Kong Chinese.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Choi Wan; Lopez, Violeta

    2014-01-01

    Achieving optimal control and reduction in coronary heart disease (CHD) risks in Hong Kong (HK) remains significant and requires exploring. This article addresses the ability to reduce CHD risks among the HK Chinese. Through secondary analysis, a qualitative descriptive design using focus group interviews and content analysis were adopted. Older and younger adults were invited for the study. An interview schedule was used to guide discussions during focus group interviews. Four categories emerged from the data: planning of health actions, control of risk-reducing behavior, perceived opportunities for understanding CHD, and chest pain appraisal. Local culture and population needs play a central role in disease perception and prevention. The findings are essential to target strategies for initiating health acts for younger adults and establish public education resources that underscore understanding of CHD risk, symptom recognition, and disease management, particularly among those middle-aged and older people at high risk and with the diseased populations. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  10. Cardiovascular risk assessment in diabetes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Djaberi, Roxana

    2014-01-01

    Research described in this thesis is based on clinical data obtained through diabetes cardiovascular risk management (DIACARM) project. A clinical protocol founded on the co-operation of the departments of endocrinology, cardiology, nephrology, radiology and nuclear medicine at the Leiden University

  11. No Longer a Spinning Satellite: Designing a Collaborative Faculty Community through Qualitative Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talerico, Katie

    2010-01-01

    While our move to qualitative assessment may not seem significant (again I started not only apathetic but hostile in my approach to assessment), it really did put enthusiasm back into our group. Before we had cringed to stay 10 minutes past quitting time; now we were coming in early on Saturday mornings to voluntarily complete work. The group, no…

  12. From Assessment to Implementation: Using Qualitative Interviews to Inform Distance Learning Library Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wharton, Lindsey N.

    2017-01-01

    While broad assessment projects are often used to steer library strategic planning initiatives, this article will present the benefits of qualitative interviews with distance learning constituents as a framework for developing a focused vision and targeted services. This article will describe the planning and execution of an assessment project…

  13. Assessment and Learning of Qualitative Physics in Newton's Playground

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shute, Valerie J.; Ventura, Matthew; Kim, Yoon Jeon

    2013-01-01

    Digital games are very popular in modern culture. The authors are examining ways to leverage these engaging environments to assess and support student competencies. The authors examine gameplay and learning using a physics game they developed called Newton's Playground. The sample consisted of 167 eighth- and ninth-grade students who played…

  14. Risk assessment in support of plant health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.

    2012-01-01

    types and plants in the environment. There has been an increasing trend towards producing scientific opinions which are full pest risk assessments for the whole EU territory. In its work, and as a contribution to the wider development of risk assessment methodology, the Panel has developed a series......-evaluation of quantitative pathway analyses, and in statistical modelling of experimental data. A Plant Health Network has been established to facilitate interaction with EU Member States, especially in relation to data collection and co-ordination of risk assessment activities. At the current time a revision of the EU...

  15. Assessment factors for human health risk assessment: A discussion paper

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeire, T.; Stevenson, H.; Pieters, M.N.; Rennen, M.; Slob, W.; Hakkert, B.C.

    1999-01-01

    The general goal of this discussion paper is to contribute toward the further harmonization of human health risk assessment. It first discusses the development of a formal, harmonized set of assessment factors. The status quo with regard to assessment factors is reviewed, that is, the type of factor

  16. Review of Qualitative Approaches for the Construction Industry: Designing a Risk Management Toolbox

    OpenAIRE

    David M. Zalk; Ton Spee; Matt Gillen; Lentz, Thomas J.; Andrew Garrod; Paul Evans; Paul Swuste

    2011-01-01

    Objectives: This paper presents the framework and protocol design for a construction industry risk management toolbox. The construction industry needs a comprehensive, systematic approach to assess and control occupational risks. These risks span several professional health and safety disciplines, emphasized by multiple international occupational research agenda projects including: falls, electrocution, noise, silica, welding fumes, and musculoskeletal disorders. Yet, the International Social...

  17. Review of Qualitative Approaches for the Construction Industry: Designing a Risk Management Toolbox

    OpenAIRE

    Zalk, David M.; Spee, Ton; Gillen, Matt; Lentz, Thomas J.; Garrod, Andrew; Evans, Paul; Swuste, Paul

    2011-01-01

    Objectives This paper presents the framework and protocol design for a construction industry risk management toolbox. The construction industry needs a comprehensive, systematic approach to assess and control occupational risks. These risks span several professional health and safety disciplines, emphasized by multiple international occupational research agenda projects including: falls, electrocution, noise, silica, welding fumes, and musculoskeletal disorders. Yet, the International Social ...

  18. [Study on application of two risk assessment methods in coal dust occupational health risk assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, B; Zhang, Y L; Chen, Y Q

    2017-04-20

    Objective: To evaluate the applicability of quantitative grading method (GBZ/T 229.1-2010) and occupational hazard risk index method in coal dust occupational health risk assessment. Methods: Taking 4 coal mines as the research object of risk assessment and making occupational health field testing and investigation. Based on two risk assessment methods, we analysed the health risk levels of 20 occupations which were exposed to coal dust in workplaces. Results: Coal dust working post had different risk levels in 4 coal mines, the post of higher risk level were mainly concentrated in the underground workplace of coal mine, especially the post of coal mining and tunneling system. The two risk assessment results showed that the risk levels of coal-mining machine drivers and tunneling machine drivers were the highest. The risk levels of coal dust working post used by two risk assessment methods had no significant difference (P>0.05) and were highly correlated (r=0.821, Prisk assessment methods were supported by the field investigation and literatures. Conclusion: The two risk assessment methods can be used in coal dust occupational health risk assessment.

  19. Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Game, Edward T.; Fitzsimons, James A.; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2013-12-01

    Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner.

  20. Greywater production in airports : qualitative and quantitative assessment.

    OpenAIRE

    Couto, Eduardo de Aguiar do; Calijuri, Maria Lúcia; Assemany, Paula Peixoto; Santiago,Aníbal da Fonseca; Carvalho, Isabella de Castro

    2013-01-01

    Airport complexes are great water consumers where the adoption of reuse practices adapted to their particular characteristics may represent significant savings of financial and environmental resources. Greywater reuse is an important alternative for reducing potable water consumption in airports. The objective of this study was to assess the quality of greywater produced in airport environments and the reuse potential of such effluent. This study was developed in a mid-size airport in Brazil,...

  1. How probabilistic risk assessment can mislead terrorism risk analysts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Gerald G; Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

    2011-02-01

    Traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), of the type originally developed for engineered systems, is still proposed for terrorism risk analysis. We show that such PRA applications are unjustified in general. The capacity of terrorists to seek and use information and to actively research different attack options before deciding what to do raises unique features of terrorism risk assessment that are not adequately addressed by conventional PRA for natural and engineered systems-in part because decisions based on such PRA estimates do not adequately hedge against the different probabilities that attackers may eventually act upon. These probabilities may differ from the defender's (even if the defender's experts are thoroughly trained, well calibrated, unbiased probability assessors) because they may be conditioned on different information. We illustrate the fundamental differences between PRA and terrorism risk analysis, and suggest use of robust decision analysis for risk management when attackers may know more about some attack options than we do.

  2. Improving risk assessment by defining consistent and reliable system scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Mazzorana

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available During the entire procedure of risk assessment for hydrologic hazards, the selection of consistent and reliable scenarios, constructed in a strictly systematic way, is fundamental for the quality and reproducibility of the results. However, subjective assumptions on relevant impact variables such as sediment transport intensity on the system loading side and weak point response mechanisms repeatedly cause biases in the results, and consequently affect transparency and required quality standards. Furthermore, the system response of mitigation measures to extreme event loadings represents another key variable in hazard assessment, as well as the integral risk management including intervention planning. Formative Scenario Analysis, as a supplement to conventional risk assessment methods, is a technique to construct well-defined sets of assumptions to gain insight into a specific case and the potential system behaviour. By two case studies, carried out (1 to analyse sediment transport dynamics in a torrent section equipped with control measures, and (2 to identify hazards induced by woody debris transport at hydraulic weak points, the applicability of the Formative Scenario Analysis technique is presented. It is argued that during scenario planning in general and with respect to integral risk management in particular, Formative Scenario Analysis allows for the development of reliable and reproducible scenarios in order to design more specifically an application framework for the sustainable assessment of natural hazards impact. The overall aim is to optimise the hazard mapping and zoning procedure by methodologically integrating quantitative and qualitative knowledge.

  3. Risk of cardiovascular disease? A qualitative study of risk interpretation among patients with high cholesterol

    OpenAIRE

    Kirkegaard, Pia; Edwards, Adrian; Risør, Mette Bech; Thomsen, Janus Laust

    2013-01-01

    Background Previous studies have shown the importance of paying attention to lay peoples’ interpretations of risk of disease, in order to explain health-related behavior. However, risk interpretations interplay with social context in complex ways. The objective was to explore how asymptomatic patients with high cholesterol interpret risk of cardiovascular disease. Methods Fourteen patients with high cholesterol and risk of cardiovascular disease were interviewed, and patterns across patient a...

  4. Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

    2015-07-01

    Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

  5. How do patients at risk portray candidates for coronary heart disease? A qualitative interview study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frich, J.C.; Malterud, K.; Fugelli, P.

    2007-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To explore how patients at risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) portray candidates for CHD. DESIGN: Qualitative interview study. SETTING: Norway. SUBJECTS: A total of 20 men and 20 women diagnosed with heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) recruited through a lipid clinic. MAIN...... the coronary candidate as someone who was different from themselves. Among those who mentioned gender, all presented the candidate as a man. Some women said that they had to reconcile themselves to being at risk of CHD, since they at first had conceived CHD as a man's disease. While some participants...

  6. Qualitative and quantitative approaches in the dose-response assessment of genotoxic carcinogens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukushima, Shoji; Gi, Min; Kakehashi, Anna; Wanibuchi, Hideki; Matsumoto, Michiharu

    2016-05-01

    Qualitative and quantitative approaches are important issues in field of carcinogenic risk assessment of the genotoxic carcinogens. Herein, we provide quantitative data on low-dose hepatocarcinogenicity studies for three genotoxic hepatocarcinogens: 2-amino-3,8-dimethylimidazo[4,5-f]quinoxaline (MeIQx), 2-amino-3-methylimidazo[4,5-f]quinoline (IQ) and N-nitrosodiethylamine (DEN). Hepatocarcinogenicity was examined by quantitative analysis of glutathione S-transferase placental form (GST-P) positive foci, which are the preneoplastic lesions in rat hepatocarcinogenesis and the endpoint carcinogenic marker in the rat liver medium-term carcinogenicity bioassay. We also examined DNA damage and gene mutations which occurred through the initiation stage of carcinogenesis. For the establishment of points of departure (PoD) from which the cancer-related risk can be estimated, we analyzed the above events by quantitative no-observed-effect level and benchmark dose approaches. MeIQx at low doses induced formation of DNA-MeIQx adducts; somewhat higher doses caused elevation of 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyquanosine levels; at still higher doses gene mutations occurred; and the highest dose induced formation of GST-P positive foci. These data indicate that early genotoxic events in the pathway to carcinogenesis showed the expected trend of lower PoDs for earlier events in the carcinogenic process. Similarly, only the highest dose of IQ caused an increase in the number of GST-P positive foci in the liver, while IQ-DNA adduct formation was observed with low doses. Moreover, treatment with DEN at low doses had no effect on development of GST-P positive foci in the liver. These data on PoDs for the markers contribute to understand whether genotoxic carcinogens have a threshold for their carcinogenicity. The most appropriate approach to use in low dose-response assessment must be approved on the basis of scientific judgment.

  7. Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment: A Methodological Comparison

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving; Christensen, Frans Møller; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky

    2001-01-01

    Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment are two different tools in environmental management. The paper identifies harmonies, discrepancies and relations between the two tools exemplified by the risk assessment principles of the European Commission (EC) and the LCA method ‘EDIP’ (En-vironmental...... conditions. It is concluded that the conceptual background and the purpose of the tools are different but that there are overlaps where they may benefit from each other and they do complement each other in an overall environmental effort....... Design of Industrial Products) developed in Denmark, respectively. A very important feature of LCA is the relative assessment due to the use of a functional unit. Risk assessment on the other hand is an absolute assessment, which may require very specific and detailed information on e.g. the exposure...

  8. Assessing Risk with GASB Statement No. 3.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Venita M.; Scott, Bob

    1987-01-01

    Discusses a Government Accounting Standards Board (GASB) publication designed to provide financial statement users with information to assess a government's actual and future deposit and investment market and credit risk. (MLF)

  9. Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Tidwell, Vincent C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Peplinski, William John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mitchell, Roger [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Binning, David [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States); Meszaros, Jenny [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for three water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.

  10. Center for Advancing Microbial Risk Assessment

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Center for Advancing Microbial Risk Assessment (CAMRA), based at Michigan State University and jointly funded by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and the...

  11. Safety Factors in Pesticide Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elmegaard, N.; Jagers op Akkerhuis, G. A. J. M.

    Foreword It has become common practice to protect the environment from hazardous chemicals by use of risk assessment to establish environmental concentration at which only limited damage to the ecosystem can be expected. The methods and tools applied in the risk assessment need constant evaluation...... to secure that the methodology is adequate. As new knowledge surfaces the risk assessment procedures develops. The present report is a contribution to the development of safety factors used to account for the uncertainty when · extrapolating from the results of test with a single species in the laboratory...... factors used in pesticide risk assessment: the variability in species sensitivities, and the relationship between acute LC50's and chronic NOEC's....

  12. Procedures for health risk assessment in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seeley, M.R.; Tonner-Navarro, L.E.; Beck, B.D.; Deskin, R.; Feron, V.J.; Johanson, G.; Bolt, H.M.

    2001-01-01

    This report compares cancer classification systems, health risk assessment approaches, and procedures used for establishing occupational exposure limits (OELs), in various European countries and scientific organizations. The objectives were to highlight and compare key aspects of these processes and

  13. Risk assessment in support of plant health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.

    2012-01-01

    With the establishment of the Plant Health Panel in 2006, EFSA became the body responsible for risk assessment in the plant health area for the European Union (EU). Since then more than 70 outputs have been produced dealing with the full range of organisms harmful to plant health across all crop...... of guidance documents. These deal with the peer review of existing pest risk assessments, a framework for conducting risk assessments which harmonise standards set by the International Plant Protection Convention and the legislative requirements of the EU, and extension of this framework to include......-evaluation of quantitative pathway analyses, and in statistical modelling of experimental data. A Plant Health Network has been established to facilitate interaction with EU Member States, especially in relation to data collection and co-ordination of risk assessment activities. At the current time a revision of the EU...

  14. Asbestos Workshop: Sampling, Analysis, and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-01

    coatings Vinyl/asbestos floor tile Automatic transmission components Clutch facings Disc brake pads Drum brake linings Brake blocks Commercial and...1EMDQ March 2012 ASBESTOS WORKSHOP: SAMPLING, ANALYSIS , AND RISK ASSESSMENT Paul Black, PhD, Neptune and Company Ralph Perona, DABT, Neptune and...Sampling, Analysis , and Risk Assessment 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK

  15. Latest developments in foodborne pathogen risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Membré, Jeanne Marie; Guillou, Sandrine

    2016-01-01

    Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) is a structured process for determining the public health risk associated with foodborne pathogens. In recent years, there has been a strong tendency in providing food safety decisions based upon quantitative assessment. Especially, variability and uncertainty inherent to biological processes have been integrated in food safety management through the use of powerful statistical and probabilistic techniques. Besides, recent developments in omic technologie...

  16. UAV Swarm Operational Risk Assessment system

    OpenAIRE

    Marfo, Sariyu; Ehler, Shane; Fields, Ryan; Negron, Jamaries Benitez; Skopak, Shane; Junek, John; Zarzaca, Justin; Perrotta, Robert; Team CQ Alpha; Cohort 311-141A

    2015-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited This paper examines the need for a UAV Swarm Risk Assessment Tool and how it can assist the Navy’s decision makers in assessing risk of UAV swarm threats in littoral environments, near potentially hostile countries, based on the latest intelligence. Human-centered design principles help determine the needs of experienced battle commanders. These needs form the basis of requirements and functional analysis. The system design concept con...

  17. Environmental risk assessment of pesticides in Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teklu, B.M.

    2016-01-01

    The current increase in application rate and usage frequency of application of pesticides in Ethiopia pose direct risks to surface water aquatic organisms and humans and cattle using surface water as a source of drinking water in rural parts of the country. A model based risk assessment as currently

  18. Gender and risk assessment in contraceptive technologies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kammen, van Jessika; Oudshoorn, Nelly

    2002-01-01

    This paper concerns a comparison of risk assessment practices of contraceptives for women and men. Our analysis shows how the evaluation of health risks of contraceptives does not simply reflect the specific effects of chemical compounds in the human body. Rather, we show how side-effects were rated

  19. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  20. Biodiversity Risk Assessment of Protected Ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vitalija Rudzkienė

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Forest ecosystems are characterised by the most abundant biodiversity because there are the best conditions for existence of various species of plants, animals and various other organisms there. Generally, in the last decades a lot of attention is given to biodiversity, and scientific research draws attention to an increasing loss of biodiversity. Biodiversity measurements are needed in order to understand biodiversity changes and to control them. Measurements and assessments of biodiversity of ecosystems reveal the condition of an ecosystem of a certain territory as well as create the basis for a strategy of preserving separate species. A lot of indices for assessing biodiversity risk have been created in the last decades. Integrated indices are composed when joining indices, and one of them is the integrated biodiversity risk assessment index NABRAI (National Biodiversity Risk Assessment Index. This article analyses the principles of creating biodiversity risk indices, possible alternatives of components (variables of biodiversity resources, impact and response indices, and their suitability at the national level. Assessment and ranking methodology, adapted for assessment of biodiversity risk of local protected territories and for ranking of territories, is presented. Report data of directorates of Lithuanian national and regional parks are used for the analysis, as well as the data served as a basis to calculate integrated biodiversity risk indices of several protected territories of Lithuania.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.erem.65.3.4478

  1. A qualitative assessment of microclimatic perturbations in atunnel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salve, R.; Kowalsky, M.B.

    2007-03-01

    Understanding microclimate dynamics in tunnels is importantfor designing and maintaining underground facilities. For example, in thegeological disposal of radioactive materials, condensation of vaporshould be minimized as it can accelerate waste package corrosion andradionuclide release. While microclimate dynamics are known to bedominated by the advection of heat and moisture, additional factors mayalso be important, such as the presence of fractures or faults. Wepresent a relatively inexpensive method to assess microclimaticperturbations within a tunnel. By combining standard temperature andrelative humidity sensors with low-cost sensors designed to detectchanges in condensation, we monitored microclimate dynamics along atunnel at the proposed geological repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada.We observed significant differences in the pattern of condensation in afaulted zone relative to that of a nonfaulted zone, suggesting that themicroclimate dynamics of excavated cavities in fractured, partiallysaturated rocks can be highly complex.

  2. New Methodology for Rapid Seismic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melikyan, A. E.; Balassanian, S. Y.

    2002-05-01

    Seismic risk is growing worldwide and is, increasingly, a problem of developing countries. Along with growing urbanization future earthquakes will have more disastrous social and economic consequences. Seismic risk assessment and reduction are important goals for each country located in seismically active zone. For Armenia these goals are of primary importance because the results of studies carried out by Armenian NSSP for assessment of the losses caused by various types of disasters in Armenia had shown that earthquakes are the most disastrous hazard for Armenia. The strategy for seismic risk reduction in 1999 was adopted by the Government of Armenia as a high priority state program. The world experience demonstrates that for efficient response the rapid assessment of seismic losses is necessary. There are several state-of-the-art approaches for seismic risk assessment (Radius, Hazus, etc.). All of them required large amount of various input data, which is impossible to collect in many developing countries, in particular in Armenia. Taking into account this very serious problem existing for developing countries, as well as rapid seismic risk assessment need immediately after strong earthquake the author undertake the attempt to contribute into a new approach for rapid seismic risk assessment under the supervision of Prof. S. Balassanian. The analysis of numerous factors influencing seismic risk in Armenia shows that the following elements contribute most significantly to the possible losses: seismic hazard; density of population; vulnerability of structures. Proposed approach for rapid seismic risk assessment based on these three factors has been tested for several seismic events. These tests have shown that such approach might represent from 80 to 90 percent of real losses.

  3. Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

  4. A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.

  5. Qualitative and quantitative assessment of four marketed formulations of Brahmi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neeti Saini

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This study was conducted with the aim to compare two batches each of four popular commercial formulations of Bacopa monnieri (Brahmi, and report, if any, inter-batch variations. The formulations were procured from local market and analyzed for label specifications, uniformity of weight of capsule, identity, purity and strength parameters (total ash content test, acid insoluble ash content, water soluble extractive, alcohol soluble extractive, loss on drying. Bacoside A, one of the pharmacologically active saponin present in B. monnieri, was quantified in all the formulations using UV-spectrophotometer. In addition each formulation was assessed and compared for variation in biological activity using in vitro test for hemolytic activity using human erythrocytes. The results of the study show that there is a wide variation in the quality and content of herbal drugs marketed by different manufacturers. More importantly this study demonstrates that there exists a bigger challenge of batch-to-batch variation in the quality and content of herbal formulations of the same manufacturer. This challenge of providing standardized formulations is being faced by not any one manufacturing house but by all, and may be attributed firstly to, lack of stringent regulations and secondly to high variability in raw material quality.

  6. Qualitative and quantitative assessment of four marketed formulations of brahmi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saini, Neeti; Mathur, Rajani; Agrawal, S S

    2012-01-01

    This study was conducted with the aim to compare two batches each of four popular commercial formulations of Bacopa monnieri (Brahmi), and report, if any, inter-batch variations. The formulations were procured from local market and analyzed for label specifications, uniformity of weight of capsule, identity, purity and strength parameters (total ash content test, acid insoluble ash content, water soluble extractive, alcohol soluble extractive, loss on drying). Bacoside A, one of the pharmacologically active saponin present in B. monnieri, was quantified in all the formulations using UV-spectrophotometer. In addition each formulation was assessed and compared for variation in biological activity using in vitro test for hemolytic activity using human erythrocytes. The results of the study show that there is a wide variation in the quality and content of herbal drugs marketed by different manufacturers. More importantly this study demonstrates that there exists a bigger challenge of batch-to-batch variation in the quality and content of herbal formulations of the same manufacturer. This challenge of providing standardized formulations is being faced by not any one manufacturing house but by all, and may be attributed firstly to, lack of stringent regulations and secondly to high variability in raw material quality.

  7. Qualitative Macroinvertebrate Assessment of Crouch Branch, June 1999

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Specht, W.L.

    1999-11-05

    An assessment of the macroinvertebrate community of Crouch Branch was performed in June 1999 to determine if effluent from the H-02 outfall is impairing the quality of the stream. Concurrent samples were collected for metals analyses (copper and zinc). The results of the study indicate that the stream is most impaired just downstream from the H-02 outfall and that the quality of the stream biota improves with increasing distance from the outfall. Conversely, macroinvertebrate habitat quality is best just downstream from the H-02 outfall. The midreaches of the stream contain very poor habitat quality, and the lower reaches of the stream, contain habitat of intermediate quality. Although much of the stream has degraded habitat due to channel erosion and scouring, there is strong evidence to suggest that the impairment is due to elevated concentrations of copper and zinc that are present in the H-02 effluent. A comparison of macroinvertebrate data collected in 1997 to the data collected in this study indicates that the macroinvertebrate community of Crouch Branch has improved markedly in the last two years.

  8. Vulnerability of Russian regions to natural risk: experience of quantitative assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Petrova, E.

    2006-01-01

    International audience; One of the important tracks leading to natural risk prevention, disaster mitigation or the reduction of losses due to natural hazards is the vulnerability assessment of an "at-risk" region. The majority of researchers propose to assess vulnerability according to an expert evaluation of several qualitative characteristics, scoring each of them usually using three ratings: low, average, and high. Unlike these investigations, we attempted a quantitative vulnerability asse...

  9. Definition of a shortcut methodology for assessing flood-related Na-Tech risk

    OpenAIRE

    Marzo, E.; Busini, V.; Rota, R.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper a qualitative methodology for the initial assessment of flood-related Na-Tech risk was developed as a screening tool to identify which situations require a much more expensive quantitative risk analysis (QRA). Through the definition of some suitable key hazard indicators (KHIs), the proposed methodology allows the identification of the Na-Tech risk level associated with a given situation; the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was used as a multi-criteria decis...

  10. Trichloroethylene risk assessment: relevance of interindividual differences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeulen, N.P.E.; Bladeren, P.J. van

    2001-01-01

    Interindividual variability in the disposition and effects of xenobiotics in humans and related inter-species differences should play a major role in human risk assessment. In particular for low-dose exposures to potentially carcinogenic compounds, novel tools and concepts are necessary to assess

  11. Trichloroethylene risk assessment: relevance of interindividual differences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeulen, N.P.E.; Bladeren, P.J. van

    2001-01-01

    Interindividual variability in the disposition and effects of xenobiotics in humans and related inter-species differences should play a major role in human risk assessment. In particular for low-dose exposures to potentially carcinogenic compounds, novel tools and concepts are necessary to assess ri

  12. Environmental risk assessment of a dam during construction phase

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Rezaian

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The present study was conducted to assess the possible risks induced by construction of Gavi Dam in Ilam Province; western part of Iran, using MIKE-11 model and technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution. For this purpose, vulnerable zone of the dam site against the flooding risk of Gavi River was calculated for different return periods. The flooding zones were stimulated by MIKE-11 model. In order to check whether or not the dam construction could affect the quality of the Gavi River, the physicochemical quality of the river water was also tested. Afterwards, a questionnaire was prepared containing an inventory of possible risks supposed to be induced by construction of Gavi Dam. The questionnaires were placed at disposal of experts to score the items based on their importance. The questionnaires were then analyzed using SPSS Software, version 16. According to which, a total number of 12 risk factors were identified. The dam construction risks were qualitatively assessed by preliminary hazard analysis. Based on the results, 3 of 12 identified risks were recognized unacceptable. The shortlisted risks were prioritized at final step using technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution. "Habitat fragmentation" with a weight of 0.3002, "water pollution" with a weight of 0.295, and "impacts on aquatics" with a weight of 0.293 were identified as three top priority flooding risks. Among the most important corrective measures for mitigation of the risks at construction phase can be pointed to "restoration of the land cover", “conservation of areas surrounding the dam as a new wildlife habitat", “prevention of water contamination”, and "conservation of fish spawning sites".

  13. Risk Assessment Study for Storage Explosive

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. S. Azhar

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available In Malaysia, there has been rapidly increasing usage in amount of explosives due to widely expansion in quarrying and mining industries. The explosives are usually stored in the storage where the safety precaution had given high attention. As the storage of large quantity of explosive can be hazardous to workers and nearby residents in the events of accidental denotation of explosives, a risk assessment study for storage explosive (magazine had been carried out. Risk assessment study had been conducted in Kimanis Quarry Sdn. Bhd, located in Sabah. Risk assessment study had been carried out with the identification of hazards and failure scenarios and estimation of the failure frequency of occurrence. Analysis of possible consequences of failure and the effects of blast waves due to the explosion was evaluated. The risk had been estimated in term of fatalities and eardrum rupture to the workers and public. The average individual voluntary risk for fatality to the workers at the quarry is calculated to be 5.75 x 10-6 per person per year, which is much lower than the acceptable level. Eardrum rupture risk calculated to be 3.15 x 10-6 per person per year for voluntary risk. There is no involuntary risk found for fatality but for eardrum rupture it was calculated to be 6.98 x 10-8 per person per year, as given by Asian Development Bank.

  14. Assessment of community health needs of Chongqing residents: a qualitative study

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Li Ying; Li Daikun; He Jia; Shi Kai; Liu HongHong; Zhang Hu

    2008-01-01

    Objective: The aim of this preliminary qualitative study was to gain insight into community health needs in order to develop health program for community in Chongqing. Methods: Totally 40 participants were assigned into 6 focus group discussions. All groups were led by local language speakers, and their talking was recorded after gaining informed consent. Transcribed data were coded and subjected to thematic analysis. Results: The main obtained themes were that community health problems were chronic noncommunicable disease, main health service needs included regularly free check-up and health education, and perceived health risk factors were unhealthy lifestyle and behavior as well as environment problems. Conclusion: Our community health needs assessment (CHNA) with FGDs indicate that residents realize the importance of prevention of disease. Our study identifies that primarily community health promotion is one of the priorities of community health service needs, including reorienting health service, health education, guiding behavior or lifestyle, and creating healthy environments. The findings of this study can provide guidance to the development of more effective and pertinent health program in this community.

  15. Educational needs assessment for psychiatry residents to prevent suicide: a qualitative approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barekatain, Majid; Aminoroaia, Mahin; Samimi, Seyed Mehdi Ardestani; Rajabi, Fatemeh; Attari, Abbas

    2013-10-01

    Suicide is a commonly encountered and stressful event in professional life of any psychiatrist. Suicide risk assessment is a major gateway to patient treatment and management. It is a core competency requirement in training of psychiatry. The present study designed to assesseducational needsfor suicide prevention in residents of psychiatry in two medical schools in Iran, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences (IUMS) and Shahid Beheshti Medical University (SBUMS) inTehran. This was a qualitative triangulation study, conducted in two steps. The first step was based on a phenomenological approach and the second was based on focus groups. The studied population was the psychiatric residents of IUMS and SBUMS. Purposive sampling was implemented until saturation. Interviews were performed. Colaizzi method was used to analyze the data. In the second step, participants attended a session, in which all final codes of the first step were discussed, and regarding the views, educational priorities and needs were listed. A total of 2047 codes, extracted from 31 interviews, analyzed through Colaizzi method, were categorized in three groups: Educational, facilities and processes, human resources. According to defects of current educational program, we suggest regular reevaluations and revisions of clinical training programs according to current needs.

  16. Earthquake risk assessment for Istanbul metropolitan area

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    The impact of earthquakes in urban centers prone to disastrous earthquakes necessitates the analysis of associated risk for rational formulation of contingency plans and mitigation strategies. In urban centers, the seismic risk is best quantified and portrayed through the preparation of "Earthquake Damage and Loss Scenarios." The components of such scenarios are the assessment of the hazard, inventories and the vulnerabilities of elements at risk. For the development of the earthquake risk scenario in Istanbul, two independent approaches, one based on intensities and the second on spectral displacements, are utilized. This paper will present the important features of a comprehensive study, highlight the methodology, discuss the results and provide insights to future developments.

  17. High risk process control system assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, Venetia [Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), RJ (Brazil); Zamberlan, Maria Cristina [National Institute of Tehnology (INT), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Human Reliability and Ergonomics Research Group for the Oil, Gas and Energy Sector

    2009-07-01

    The evolution of ergonomics methodology has become necessary due to the dynamics imposed by the work environment, by the increase of the need of human cooperation and by the high interaction between various sections within a company. In the last 25 years, as of studies made in the high risk process control, we have developed a methodology to evaluate these situations that focus on the assessment of activities and human cooperation, the assessment of context, the assessment of the impact of work of other sectors in the final activity of the operator, as well as the modeling of existing risks. (author)

  18. TSCA Work Plan Chemical Risk Assessment: 1 ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    1-Bromopropane (CASRN 106-94-5): or 1-BP is a volatile organic chemical that is considered moderately persistent in the environment but does not have the potential to bioaccumulate in fish or other animals. The majority of the 1-BP production volume (~ 47%) is used as a vapor degreaser for optics electronics, plastics, and metals. 1-BP also is used as an aerosol solvent in cleaning products, as a spray fixative in arts and crafts, and as a spot cleaner in various industrial/commercial/consumer sectors. Focus of the Risk Assessment: The assessment will focus on uses of 1-BP in commercial (i.e., vapor degreasing, spray adhesives, and dry cleaning) and consumer applications (i.e., aerosol solvent cleaners and spray adhesives). Given the range of endpoints (i.e., cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), susceptible populations are expected to include adults (including pregnant women) in commercial uses and children (as bystanders) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women) for consumer uses. Thus, the assessment will focus on all humans/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its work on the a

  19. Postural risk assessment of mechanised firewood processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spinelli, Raffaele; Aminti, Giovanni; De Francesco, Fabio

    2017-03-01

    The study assessed the postural risk of mechanised firewood processing with eight machines, representing the main technology solutions available on the market. Assessment was conducted with the Ovako Working posture Analysis System (OWAS) on 1000 still frames randomly extracted from videotaped work samples. The postural risk associated with firewood processing was variable and associated with technology type. Simple, manually operated new machines incurred a higher postural risk compared with semi- or fully automatic machines. In contrast, new semi-automatic and automatic machines were generally free from postural risk. In all cases, attention should be paid to postural risk that may occur during blockage resolution. The study did not cover the postural risk of firewood processing sites as a whole. The study provided useful information for selecting firewood processing machinery and for improving firewood machinery design, as part of a more articulate strategy aimed at enhancing the safety of firewood processing work sites. Practitioner Summary: The postural risk associated with mechanised firewood processing (eg cutting and splitting) depends on the type of equipment. Postural risk is highest (OWAS Action Category 2) with new in-line machines, designed for operation by a single worker. Fully automatic machines present minimum postural risk, except during blockage resolution.

  20. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Contact Sensitization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Api, Anne Marie; Belsito, Donald; Bickers, David

    2010-01-01

    Background: Contact hypersensitivity quantitative risk assessment (QRA) for fragrance ingredients is being used to establish new international standards for all fragrance ingredients that are potential skin sensitizers. Objective: The objective was to evaluate the retrospective clinical data...... as potential sensitizers. Methods: This article reviews clinical data for three fragrance ingredients cinnamic aldehyde, citral, and isoeugenol to assess the utility of the QRA approach for fragrance ingredients. Results: This assessment suggests that had the QRA approach been available at the time standards...

  1. Risk Assessment of Nitrogen Discharge from a Coastal Watershed

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Neng-Wang; HONG Hua-Sheng; ZHANG Luo-Ping; CAO Wen-Zhi

    2007-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) uses probability theory to quantify the probability of occurrence of an event. In this study, PRA was conducted for the discharge of excess nitrogen (N) from an agricultural (Jiulong River) watershed in Southeast China. Using fault tree analysis, a type of PRA, the probability of occurrence of excess N discharge into the river during a runoff event was evaluated both qualitatively and quantitatively. Land use maps, soil maps, fertilizer use records, and expert opinions were used to determine probabilities of individual events within the fault tree and to calculate the overall probability of excess N discharge during a runoff event. Qualitative analysis showed that the risk of excess N discharge was mainly related to crop and livestock practices in the watershed. Proper management of tillage, fertilizer, and manure was necessary to control N releases. Quantitative assessment results indicated that alternative practices including reduction of fertilization, installation of vegetative strip buffer around the pig farms, and installation of more riparian buffers along the Jiulong River could reduce the likelihood of N discharge through runoff.

  2. Risk propensity assessment in military special operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sicard, B; Jouve, E; Blin, O

    2001-10-01

    Risk taking, decision making, and stress factors are strongly associated in military operations. The authors used the Bond and Lader mood and alertness scale and a new scale, Evaluation of Risks (EVAR), to assess risk proneness in a maritime counter-terrorism exercise. EVAR items are distributed among five factors: self-control, danger seeking, energy, impulsiveness, and invincibility. In the study, 10 pilots were submitted to strenuous night flights with limited sleep deprivation. Compared with baseline data, pilots reported an increase in impulsiveness, whereas EVAR factors were consistent in a control group composed of 9 navy crew member. Correlations were observed between mood and alertness and risk factors. These results illustrate how EVAR can be used to evaluate change in risk proneness in individuals submitted to various stressors. But further studies are required to weigh stress factors and environmental conditions in risk propensity with a larger population of various age and personality traits.

  3. Quantitative and qualitative assessment of the bovine abortion surveillance system in France.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bronner, Anne; Gay, Emilie; Fortané, Nicolas; Palussière, Mathilde; Hendrikx, Pascal; Hénaux, Viviane; Calavas, Didier

    2015-06-01

    Bovine abortion is the main clinical sign of bovine brucellosis, a disease of which France has been declared officially free since 2005. To ensure the early detection of any brucellosis outbreak, event-driven surveillance relies on the mandatory notification of bovine abortions and the brucellosis testing of aborting cows. However, the under-reporting of abortions appears frequent. Our objectives were to assess the aptitude of the bovine abortion surveillance system to detect each and every bovine abortion and to identify factors influencing the system's effectiveness. We evaluated five attributes defined by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control with a method suited to each attribute: (1) data quality was studied quantitatively and qualitatively, as this factor considerably influences data analysis and results; (2) sensitivity and representativeness were estimated using a unilist capture-recapture approach to quantify the surveillance system's effectiveness; (3) acceptability and simplicity were studied through qualitative interviews of actors in the field, given that the surveillance system relies heavily on abortion notifications by farmers and veterinarians. Our analysis showed that (1) data quality was generally satisfactory even though some errors might be due to actors' lack of awareness of the need to collect accurate data; (2) from 2006 to 2011, the mean annual sensitivity - i.e. the proportion of farmers who reported at least one abortion out of all those who detected such events - was around 34%, but was significantly higher in dairy than beef cattle herds (highlighting a lack of representativeness); (3) overall, the system's low sensitivity was related to its low acceptability and lack of simplicity. This study showed that, in contrast to policy-makers, most farmers and veterinarians perceived the risk of a brucellosis outbreak as negligible. They did not consider sporadic abortions as a suspected case of brucellosis and usually reported abortions only to

  4. Developing a Generic Risk Assessment Simulation Modelling Software Tool for Assessing the Risk of Foot and Mouth Virus Introduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tameru, B; Gebremadhin, B; Habtemariam, T; Nganwa, D; Ayanwale, O; Wilson, S; Robnett, V; Wilson, W

    2008-06-01

    Foot and Mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease that affects all cloven-hoofed animals. Because of its devastating effects on the agricultural industry, many countries take measures to stop the introduction of FMD virus into their countries. Decision makers at multiple levels of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) use Risk Assessments (RAs) (both quantitative and qualitative) to make better and more informed scientifically based decisions to prevent the accidental or intentional introduction of the disease. There is a need for a generic RA that can be applied to any country (whether FMD free or non-FMD free) and for any product (FMD infected animals and animal products). We developed a user-friendly generic RA tool (software) that can be used to conduct and examine different scenarios of quantitative/qualitative risk assessments for the different countries with their varying FMD statuses in relation to reintroduction of FMD virus into the USA. The program was written in Microsoft Visual Basic 6.0 (Microsoft Corporation, Redmond, Washington, USA). The @Risk 6.1 Developer Kit (RDK) and @Risk 6.1 Best Fit Kit library (Palisade Corporation, Newfield, NY.USA) was used to build Monte Carlo simulation models. Microsoft Access 2000 (Microsoft Corporation, Redmond, Washington, USA) was used and SQL to query the data. Different input probability distributions can be selected for the nodes in the scenario tree and different output for each end-state of the simulation is given in different graphical formats and statistical values are used in describing the likelihood of FMD virus introduction. Sensitivity Analysis in determining which input factor has more effect on the total risk outputs is also given. The developed generic RA tools can be eventually extended and modified to conduct RAs for other animal diseases and animal products.

  5. Specialist antenatal clinics for women at high risk of preterm birth: a systematic review of qualitative and quantitative research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malouf, Reem; Redshaw, Maggie

    2017-02-02

    Preterm birth (PTB) is the leading cause of perinatal morbidity and mortality. Women with previous prenatal loss are at higher risk of preterm birth. A specialist antenatal clinic is considered as one approach to improve maternity and pregnancy outcomes. A systematic review of quantitative, qualitative and mixed method studies conducted on women at high risk of preterm birth (PTB). The review primary outcomes were to report on the specialist antenatal clinics effect in preventing or reducing preterm birth, perinatal mortality and morbidity and women's perceptions and experiences of a specialist clinic whether compared or not compared with standard antenatal care. Other secondary maternal, infant and economic outcomes were also determined. A comprehensive search strategy was carried out in English within electronic databases as far back as 1980. The reviewers selected studies, assessed the quality, and extracted data independently. Results were summarized and tabulated. Eleven studies fully met the review inclusion criteria, ten were quantitative design studies and only one was a qualitative design study. No mixed method design study was included in the review. All were published after 1989, seven were conducted in the USA and four in the UK. Results from five good to low quality randomised controlled trials (RCTs), all conducted before 1990, did not illustrate the efficacy of the clinic in reducing preterm birth. Whereas results from more recent low quality cohort studies showed some positive neonatal outcomes. Themes from one good quality qualitative study reflected on the emotional and psychological need to reduce anxiety and stress of women referred to such a clinic. Women expressed their negative emotional responses at being labelled as high risk and positive responses to being assessed and treated in the clinic. Women also reported that their partners were struggling to cope emotionally. Findings from this review were mixed. Evidence from cohort studies

  6. Qualitative and Quantitave Risk Evaluation on the Basis of Military Aviation Event Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zieja Mariusz

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Risk management is understood as a process supporting decision making through systemic assessment of possible courses of action, identification of hazards and benefits, and indication of the best way to carry out aviation tasks.

  7. Using Qualitative Research to Assess Teaching and Learning in Technology-Infused TILE Classrooms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Horne, Sam; Murniati, Cecilia Titiek; Saichaie, Kem; Jesse, Maggie; Florman, Jean C.; Ingram, Beth F.

    2014-01-01

    This chapter describes the results of an assessment project whose purpose was to improve the faculty-development program for instructors who teach in technology-infused TILE (Transform, Interact, Learn, Engage) classrooms at the University of Iowa. Qualitative research methods were critical for (1) learning about how students and instructors…

  8. Evaluating quantitative and qualitative models: an application for nationwide water erosion assessment in Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sonneveld, B.G.J.S.; Keyzer, M.A.; Stroosnijder, L.

    2011-01-01

    This paper tests the candidacy of one qualitative response model and two quantitative models for a nationwide water erosion hazard assessment in Ethiopia. After a descriptive comparison of model characteristics the study conducts a statistical comparison to evaluate the explanatory power of the mode

  9. Evaluating quantitative and qualitative models: an application for nationwide water erosion assessment in Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sonneveld, B.G.J.S.; Keyzer, M.A.; Stroosnijder, L.

    2011-01-01

    This paper tests the candidacy of one qualitative response model and two quantitative models for a nationwide water erosion hazard assessment in Ethiopia. After a descriptive comparison of model characteristics the study conducts a statistical comparison to evaluate the explanatory power of the mode

  10. Using Qualitative Research to Assess Teaching and Learning in Technology-Infused TILE Classrooms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Horne, Sam; Murniati, Cecilia Titiek; Saichaie, Kem; Jesse, Maggie; Florman, Jean C.; Ingram, Beth F.

    2014-01-01

    This chapter describes the results of an assessment project whose purpose was to improve the faculty-development program for instructors who teach in technology-infused TILE (Transform, Interact, Learn, Engage) classrooms at the University of Iowa. Qualitative research methods were critical for (1) learning about how students and instructors…

  11. Evaluating quantitative and qualitative models: an application for nationwide water erosion assessment in Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sonneveld, B.G.J.S.; Keyzer, M.A.; Stroosnijder, L.

    2011-01-01

    This paper tests the candidacy of one qualitative response model and two quantitative models for a nationwide water erosion hazard assessment in Ethiopia. After a descriptive comparison of model characteristics the study conducts a statistical comparison to evaluate the explanatory power of the

  12. Qualitative Macroinvertebrate Assessment of Crouch Branch, June 1999 and November 2000

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Specht, W.L.

    2001-08-27

    Qualitative assessments of the macroinvertebrate community of Crouch Branch were performed in June 1999 and November 2000 to determine if effluent from the H-02 outfall is impairing the quality of the receiving stream. Concurrent samples were collected for metals analyses (copper and zinc in 1999; copper in 2000).

  13. Career writing : a creative, expressive and reflective approach to qualitative assessment and guidance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lengelle, Reinekke; Meijers, Frans

    2015-01-01

    Career Writing is a narrative approach to qualitative career assessment whereby client (or student) groups use creative, reflective, and expressive forms of writing to foster an internal dialogue about career. It is intended to help individuals construct a career identity by uncovering life themes,

  14. Microbial risk assessment of Vibrio spp. in seafood products in Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karla M López-Hernández

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Food-borne diseases are among the major public health problems that currently exist. Microbiological risk assessment is a process used to evaluate the hidden hazards in food, the likelihood of exposure to these hazards and their impact on public health. Risk assessment is performed in four steps: hazard identification, hazard characterization, assessment of exposure and risk characterization. According to the process/response microbial risk assessment is classified in two categories, qualitative and quantitative. The aim of this review is to underline the importance of implementing assessments in seafood that is usually consumed raw, strengthening access to good quality and safe food for the consumer’s benefit and to stress the necessity of microbiological risks assessments in Mexico.

  15. [Microbial risk assessment of Vibrio spp. in seafood products in Mexico].

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Hernández, Karla M; Pardío-Sedas, Violeta T; Williams, José de Jesús

    2014-01-01

    Food-borne diseases are among the major public health problems that currently exist. Microbiological risk assessment is a process used to evaluate the hidden hazards in food, the likelihood of exposure to these hazards and their impact on public health. Risk assessment is performed in four steps: hazard identification, hazard characterization, assessment of exposure and risk characterization. According to the process/response microbial risk assessment is classified in two categories, qualitative and quantitative. The aim of this review is to underline the importance of implementing assessments in seafood that is usually consumed raw, strengthening access to good quality and safe food for the consumer's benefit and to stress the necessity of microbiological risks assessments in Mexico.

  16. Risk management study for the retired Hanford Site facilities: Qualitative risk evaluation for the retired Hanford Site facilities. Volume 3

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coles, G.A.; Shultz, M.V.; Taylor, W.E.

    1993-09-01

    This document provides a risk evaluation of the 100 and 200 Area retired, surplus facilities on the Hanford Site. Also included are the related data that were compiled by the risk evaluation team during investigations performed on the facilities. Results are the product of a major effort performed in fiscal year 1993 to produce qualitative information that characterizes certain risks associated with these facilities. The retired facilities investigated for this evaluation are located in the 100 and 200 Areas of the 1,450-km{sup 2} (570-mi{sup 2}) Hanford Site. The Hanford Site is a semiarid tract of land in southeastern Washington State. The nearest population center is Richland, Washington, (population 32,000) 30-km (20 mi) southeast of the 200 Area. During walkdown investigations of these facilities, data on real and potential hazards that threatened human health or safety or created potential environmental release issues were identified by the risk evaluation team. Using these findings, the team categorized the identified hazards by facility and evaluated the risk associated with each hazard. The factors contributing to each risk, and the consequence and likelihood of harm associated with each hazard also are included in this evaluation.

  17. Risk assessment of Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Waigmann E

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available

    EFSA’s remit in the risk assessment of GMOs is very broad encompassing genetically modified plants, microorganisms and animals and assessing their safety for humans, animals and the environment. The legal frame for GMOs is set by Directive 2001/18/EC on their release into the environment, and Regulation (EC No 1829/2003 on GM food and feed. The main focus of EFSA’s GMO Panel and GMO Unit lies in the evaluation of the scientific risk assessment of new applications for market authorisation of GMOs, and in the development of corresponding guidelines for the applicants. The EFSA GMO Panel has elaborated comprehensive guidance documents on GM plants, GM microorganisms and GM animals, as well as on specific aspects of risk assessment such as the selection of comparators. EFSA also provides special scientific advice upon request of the European Commission; examples are post-market environmental monitoring of GMOs, and consideration of potential risks of new plant breeding techniques. The GMO Panel regularly reviews its guidance documents in the light of experience gained with the evaluation of applications, technological progress in breeding technologies and scientific developments in the diverse areas of risk assessment.

  18. An Assessment of Risk and Risk Management Information Disclosure of Companies Listed in Nasdaq OMX Baltic and Euronext Brussels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dalia Kolmatsui

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The main goal of this paper is to discuss theoretically and to evaluate empirically the differences of risk and risk management information disclosure (RRMID among companies listed in Nasdaq OMX Baltic and Euronext Brussels and to determine factors influencing such differences. The authors use analysis and systemization of scientific literature, induction, content analysis and coding procedure for risk and risk management information disclosure assessment, as well as correlation and regression analyses. The results suggest that companies listed in Euronext Brussels disclose more risk and risk management (RRM information; RRM related disclosures are more qualitative, focused on past or present events and have a neutral meaning in both markets. Companies also disclose more information about risks themselves than about risk management. Finally, only companies’ size and presence of audit committee are significant factors influencing RRMID.

  19. Update earthquake risk assessment in Cairo, Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan

    2016-12-01

    The Cairo earthquake (12 October 1992; m b = 5.8) is still and after 25 years one of the most painful events and is dug into the Egyptians memory. This is not due to the strength of the earthquake but due to the accompanied losses and damages (561 dead; 10,000 injured and 3000 families lost their homes). Nowadays, the most frequent and important question that should rise is "what if this earthquake is repeated today." In this study, we simulate the same size earthquake (12 October 1992) ground motion shaking and the consequent social-economic impacts in terms of losses and damages. Seismic hazard, earthquake catalogs, soil types, demographics, and building inventories were integrated into HAZUS-MH to produce a sound earthquake risk assessment for Cairo including economic and social losses. Generally, the earthquake risk assessment clearly indicates that "the losses and damages may be increased twice or three times" in Cairo compared to the 1992 earthquake. The earthquake risk profile reveals that five districts (Al-Sahel, El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr sharq) lie in high seismic risks, and three districts (Manshiyat Naser, El-Waily, and Wassat (center)) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Gharb is the highest vulnerable district. The analysis shows that the Cairo urban area faces high risk. Deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated buildings damages are concentrated within the most densely populated (El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr Gharb) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts. Actually, an earthquake risk assessment for Cairo represents a crucial application of the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation model for risk management. Finally, for mitigation, risk reduction, and to improve the seismic performance of structures and assure life safety

  20. Update earthquake risk assessment in Cairo, Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan

    2017-07-01

    The Cairo earthquake (12 October 1992; m b = 5.8) is still and after 25 years one of the most painful events and is dug into the Egyptians memory. This is not due to the strength of the earthquake but due to the accompanied losses and damages (561 dead; 10,000 injured and 3000 families lost their homes). Nowadays, the most frequent and important question that should rise is "what if this earthquake is repeated today." In this study, we simulate the same size earthquake (12 October 1992) ground motion shaking and the consequent social-economic impacts in terms of losses and damages. Seismic hazard, earthquake catalogs, soil types, demographics, and building inventories were integrated into HAZUS-MH to produce a sound earthquake risk assessment for Cairo including economic and social losses. Generally, the earthquake risk assessment clearly indicates that "the losses and damages may be increased twice or three times" in Cairo compared to the 1992 earthquake. The earthquake risk profile reveals that five districts (Al-Sahel, El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr sharq) lie in high seismic risks, and three districts (Manshiyat Naser, El-Waily, and Wassat (center)) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Gharb is the highest vulnerable district. The analysis shows that the Cairo urban area faces high risk. Deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated buildings damages are concentrated within the most densely populated (El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr Gharb) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts. Actually, an earthquake risk assessment for Cairo represents a crucial application of the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation model for risk management. Finally, for mitigation, risk reduction, and to improve the seismic performance of structures and assure life safety

  1. Risks in hospitals. Assessment and Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bradea Ioana-Alexandra

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In a complex world, characterized by a multitude of risks, managers need to manage the risks they encounter, in an efficient way and in the shortest time possible. In the current economic crisis, the concept of hospital risk management, as the process in which is identified, analyzed, reduced, or avoided a risk that may affect the hospital, gained great importance. The Romanian health system, distinguished by: lack of transparency, poor funding, the loss of the valuable medical staff, lack of hospitals in villages and small towns, inability to engage patients due to the old and poor equipment, lack of research and problems in information privacy and cyber-security, requires an appropriate management, enabling risk managers to take decisions in order to avoid the occurrence of risks. Important for the functioning of every hospital is the perception of patients and their degree of satisfaction, regarding the quality of services, which depend largely on the quality of human resources. But what are the human resources weaknesses and risks from the patient point of view? What are the risk indicators which must be monitored to avoid risks? And also, which is the most useful method for measurement and assessment of risk?

  2. Integrating public risk perception into formal natural hazard risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Th. Plattner

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available An urgent need to take perception into account for risk assessment has been pointed out by relevant literature, its impact in terms of risk-related behaviour by individuals is obvious. This study represents an effort to overcome the broadly discussed question of whether risk perception is quantifiable or not by proposing a still simple but applicable methodology. A novel approach is elaborated to obtain a more accurate and comprehensive quantification of risk in comparison to present formal risk evaluation practice. A consideration of relevant factors enables a explicit quantification of individual risk perception and evaluation. The model approach integrates the effective individual risk reff and a weighted mean of relevant perception affecting factors PAF. The relevant PAF cover voluntariness of risk-taking, individual reducibility of risk, knowledge and experience, endangerment, subjective damage rating and subjective recurrence frequency perception. The approach assigns an individual weight to each PAF to represent its impact magnitude. The quantification of these weights is target-group-dependent (e.g. experts, laypersons and may be effected by psychometric methods. The novel approach is subject to a plausibility check using data from an expert-workshop. A first model application is conducted by means of data of an empirical risk perception study in Western Germany to deduce PAF and weight quantification as well as to confirm and evaluate model applicbility and flexibility. Main fields of application will be a quantification of risk perception by individual persons in a formal and technical way e.g. for the purpose of risk communication issues in illustrating differing perspectives of experts and non-experts. For decision making processes this model will have to be applied with caution, since it is by definition not designed to quantify risk acceptance or risk evaluation. The approach may well explain how risk perception differs, but not

  3. Childbirth at home: a qualitative study exploring perceptions of risk and risk management among Baloch women in Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abed Saeedi, Zhila; Ghazi Tabatabaie, Mahmoud; Moudi, Zahra; Vedadhir, Abou Ali; Navidian, Ali

    2013-01-01

    to explain how women who choose to give birth at home perceive and manage the risks related to childbirth. a qualitative, methodological approach drawing upon the principles of grounded theory. Data were gathered by in-depth interviews with women who had given birth at home. the study was conducted in Zahedan, the capital of Sistan and Balochestan province in southeast Iran. 21 Baloch women aged 13-39 years who had a planned home birth were interviewed. Nine had been attended by university-educated midwives, eight by trained midwives, and four by traditional birth attendants. concerning perceived risks, women perceived giving birth in hospital to be risky because of medical interventions, routines and ethical considerations. The perceived risks for home birth were acute medical conditions. Women made their decision to give birth at home based on existing verbal, visual, and intuitive information. The following two categories related to risk management were identified: (1) psychological preparation and (2) medical and logistican preparation. All of the women relied on their own intuition, their midwife and the sociopsychological support of their families to transfer them to hospital in the case of complications. the women who chose to give birth at home accepted that there was a risk of complications, but perceived these to be due to fate. Technical risks were considered to be a consequence of the decision to give birth in hospital, and were perceived to be avoidable. In addition, the women considered ethical issues as risks that are sometimes more important than medical complications. Women's perceptions of risk, and the ways in which they prepare to manage risk, are central issues to help providers and policy makers adjust services to women's expectations in order to respond to the individuality of each woman. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. New online voltage stability margins and risk assessment for multi-bus smart power grids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aldeen, M.; Saha, S.; Alpcan, T.; Evans, R. J.

    2015-07-01

    This paper presents a quantitative framework for assessment of voltage stability in smart power networks. First, new stability indices similar to gain and phase margins in linear time invariant control systems are introduced. These indices can be computed online in conjunction with load-flow calculations. Then, a novel risk assessment framework incorporating the new stability indices is developed to methodologically quantify the voltage stability risks a power system faces at any given operating condition. In contrast to existing local stability indices and qualitative risk approaches, the indices and framework introduced provide analytical and quantitative evaluation of voltage stability and associated risks. The results are illustrated with a numerical example.

  5. Safety Factors in Pesticide Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elmegaard, N.; Jagers op Akkerhuis, G. A. J. M.

    Foreword It has become common practice to protect the environment from hazardous chemicals by use of risk assessment to establish environmental concentration at which only limited damage to the ecosystem can be expected. The methods and tools applied in the risk assessment need constant evaluation...... to many species in real ecosystems · extrapolating from acute to chronic or long term effects. The project was co-funded by the Environmental Protection Agency and The National Environmental Research Institute Summary In this report two factors are studied which have implications for the size of safety...... factors used in pesticide risk assessment: the variability in species sensitivities, and the relationship between acute LC50's and chronic NOEC's....

  6. Risk factors for and assessment of constipation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Sherree; Hungerford, Catherine

    2015-04-01

    Constipation commonly occurs in older people, particularly in hospital or residential care settings, and leads to decreased quality of life and increased healthcare costs. Despite its frequency, however, nurses often overlook the condition. One possible reason for this may be the lack of appropriate tools or scales for nurses to assess risk factors for developing constipation. This article identifies, from the academic literature, 14 risk factors for developing constipation in older people. These factors are then considered in light of four common constipation assessment charts. The article concludes by arguing the need for more comprehensive assessment tools to, firstly, identify risk factors; and, secondly, support the implementation of appropriate preventative strategies that will enable better health outcomes for older people.

  7. Concepts of modern risk assessment and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corbin, S B

    1994-01-01

    An emerging and increasingly complex array of environmental health concerns face dental practitioners in both the private and public sectors. These concerns are challenging and possibly threatening the traditionally inviolable dentist-patient relationship. Regulatory bodies, health risk experts, attorneys, and enthusiastic media are inserting themselves into the process. Essential assets for "successful" dental practitioners include enhanced expertise in basic science and technology, including the area of risk assessment, and development of broadened perspectives and skills for communicating with patients and the public.

  8. Assessing patients' risk of febrile neutropenia: is there a correlation between physician-assessed risk and model-predicted risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyman, Gary H; Dale, David C; Legg, Jason C; Abella, Esteban; Morrow, Phuong Khanh; Whittaker, Sadie; Crawford, Jeffrey

    2015-08-01

    This study evaluated the correlation between the risk of febrile neutropenia (FN) estimated by physicians and the risk of severe neutropenia or FN predicted by a validated multivariate model in patients with nonmyeloid malignancies receiving chemotherapy. Before patient enrollment, physician and site characteristics were recorded, and physicians self-reported the FN risk at which they would typically consider granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) primary prophylaxis (FN risk intervention threshold). For each patient, physicians electronically recorded their estimated FN risk, orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis (yes/no), and patient characteristics for model predictions. Correlations between physician-assessed FN risk and model-predicted risk (primary endpoints) and between physician-assessed FN risk and G-CSF orders were calculated. Overall, 124 community-based oncologists registered; 944 patients initiating chemotherapy with intermediate FN risk enrolled. Median physician-assessed FN risk over all chemotherapy cycles was 20.0%, and median model-predicted risk was 17.9%; the correlation was 0.249 (95% CI, 0.179-0.316). The correlation between physician-assessed FN risk and subsequent orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis (n = 634) was 0.313 (95% CI, 0.135-0.472). Among patients with a physician-assessed FN risk ≥ 20%, 14% did not receive G-CSF orders. G-CSF was not ordered for 16% of patients at or above their physician's self-reported FN risk intervention threshold (median, 20.0%) and was ordered for 21% below the threshold. Physician-assessed FN risk and model-predicted risk correlated weakly; however, there was moderate correlation between physician-assessed FN risk and orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis. Further research and education on FN risk factors and appropriate G-CSF use are needed.

  9. A qualitative exploration of oncology nurses' family assessment practices in Denmark and Australia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Coyne, Elisabeth; Dieperink, Karin B

    2017-01-01

    : An interpretive qualitative study was conducted guided by the family systems theory. Focus groups were completed with 62 nurses working in adult oncology areas in Denmark and Australia. A thematic analysis and a computer-generated concept mapping were completed to identify themes within the data. RESULTS: Overall...... the nurse's role in family assessment. CONCLUSION: This study identified that nurses value family as part of patient care, however struggle to assess and support families during oncology care. There is a need for a structured assessment approach and education on family assessment, which could be used across...

  10. Qualitative Assessment of User Acceptance within Action Design Research and Action Research: Two Case Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edison Loza-Aguirre

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, there are several models to evaluate technological acceptance of software developed through Action Design Research and Action Research. These models rely on quantitative techniques to study user behavioural intentions and thus predict the use of a technology. This paper presents our experiences in using qualitative methods to assess such acceptance in the development of specialized tools for Strategic Scanning. Our study suggests that qualitative methods can be an alternative to evaluate technology acceptance in situations where the number of users is small or where there are requirements for continuous improvement.

  11. [Patient safety in antibiotics administration: Risk assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maqueda Palau, M; Pérez Juan, E

    To determine the level of risk in the preparation and administration of antibiotics frequently used in the Intensive Care Unit using a risk matrix. A study was conducted using situation analysis and literature review of databases, protocols and good practice guidelines on intravenous therapy, drugs, and their administration routes. The most used antibiotics in the ICU registered in the ENVIN-HELICS program from 1 April to 30 June 2015 were selected. In this period, 257 patients received antimicrobial treatment and 26 antibiotics were evaluated. Variables studied: A risk assessment of each antibiotic using the scale Risk Assessment Tool, of the National Patient Safety Agency, as well as pH, osmolarity, type of catheter recommended for administration, and compatibility and incompatibility with other antibiotics studied. Almost two-thirds (65.3%) of antibiotics had more than 3 risk factors (represented by a yellow stripe), with the remaining 34.7% of antibiotics having between 0 and 2 risk factors (represented by a green stripe). There were no antibiotics with 6 or more risk factors (represented by a red stripe). Most drugs needed reconstitution, additional dilution, and the use of part of the vial to administer the prescribed dose. More than half of the antibiotics studied had a moderate risk level; thus measures should be adopted in order to reduce it. The risk matrix is a useful tool for the assessment and detection of weaknesses associated with the preparation and administration of intravenous antibiotics. Copyright © 2016 SECA. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  12. [Benefit-risk assessment of vaccination strategies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanslik, Thomas; Boëlle, Pierre Yves

    2007-04-01

    This article summarises the various stages of the risk/benefit assessment of vaccination strategies. Establishing the awaited effectiveness of a vaccination strategy supposes to have an epidemiologic description of the disease to be prevented. The effectiveness of the vaccine strategy will be thus expressed in numbers of cases, hospitalizations or deaths avoided. The effectiveness can be direct, expressed as the reduction of the incidence of the infectious disease in the vaccinated subjects compared to unvaccinated subjects. It can also be indirect, the unvaccinated persons being protected by the suspension in circulation of the pathogenic agent, consecutive to the implementation of the vaccination campaign. The risks of vaccination related to the adverse effects detected during the clinical trials preceding marketing are well quantified, but other risks can occur after marketing: e.g., serious and unexpected adverse effects detected by vaccinovigilance systems, or risk of increase in the age of cases if the vaccination coverage is insufficient. The medico-economic evaluation forms a part of the risks/benefit assessment, by positioning the vaccine strategy comparatively with other interventions for health. Epidemiologic and vaccinovigilance informations must be updated very regularly, which underlines the need for having an operational and reliable real time monitoring system to accompany the vaccination strategies. Lastly, in the context of uncertainty which often accompanies the risks/benefit assessments, it is important that an adapted communication towards the public and the doctors is planned.

  13. Assessment of health risks of policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ádám, Balázs, E-mail: badam@cmss.sdu.dk [Unit for Health Promotion Research, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Southern Denmark, Niels Bohrs Vej 9, DK-6700 Esbjerg (Denmark); Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Molnár, Ágnes, E-mail: MolnarAg@smh.ca [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Centre for Research on Inner City Health, Keenan Research Centre, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael' s Hospital, Victoria 209, Rm. 3-26.22, M5B 1C6 Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Ádány, Róza, E-mail: adany.roza@sph.unideb.hu [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Bianchi, Fabrizio, E-mail: Fabriepi@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Bitenc, Katarina, E-mail: katarina.bitenc@ivz-rs.si [National Institute of Public Health, Trubarjeva 2, SI-1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia); Chereches, Razvan, E-mail: razvan.m.chereches@gmail.com [Faculty of Political, Administrative and Communication Sciences, Babes-Bolyai University, Strada Mihail Kogalniceanu 1, 3400 Cluj (Romania); Cori, Liliana, E-mail: liliana.cori@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Fehr, Rainer, E-mail: rainer.fehr@uni-bielefeld.de [NRW Centre for Health, Westerfeldstr. 35-37, 33611 Bielefeld (Germany); Kobza, Joanna, E-mail: koga1@poczta.onet.pl [Public Health Department, Silesian Medical University, 18 Medykow Street, 40-752 Katowice (Poland); Kollarova, Jana, E-mail: janakollarova@yahoo.com [Department of Health Promotion, Regional Public Health Authority, Ipelska 1, 04011 Kosice (Slovakia); and others

    2014-09-15

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.

  14. After the Cap: Risk Assessment, Citizen Science and Disaster Recovery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabrina McCormick

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available I used the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill to examine how crowdsourcing is used as a new form of citizen science that provides real time assessments of health-related exposures. Assessing risks of an oil spill, or disasters more generally, is a challenge complicated by the situated nature of knowledge-generation that results in differential perceptions and responses. These processes are critical in the case of the British Petroleum spill in the Gulf Coast since the identification of risks promises to have ramifications for multiple social actors, as well as the health status and long-term resilience of communities in the area. Qualitative interviews, ethnographic observations, and video data were collected with local social movement organizations, grassroots groups, spill workers, fisherman, local residents, scientists, and government representatives within five months of the spill. Findings suggest that crowdsourcing is a new form of citizen science reflecting a transition from lay mapping to an online data gathering system that allows a broader range of participation and the detection of a broader range of impacts. Outcomes of this research promise to help demonstrate and theorize how citizen science relates to risk assessment processes and affects disaster recovery and long-term response.

  15. Disaster risk assessment at Roburnia Plantation, Mpumalanga, South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rudzani A. Makhado

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available This study reports about disaster risk assessment undertaken at Roburnia Plantation, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. Both quantitative and qualitative approaches were followed to collect data. A total of eight experienced foresters and fire fighters were purposively sampled for interview at Roburnia Plantation. A questionnaire survey was also used to collect the data. Risk levels were quantified using the risks equations of Wisner et al. (2004 and the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR 2002. Data were analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics. Analysis of variance (ANOVA, single factor was also applied. This study found that Roburnia Plantation is highly exposed to fire risks. The mean (± s.d. output from the Wisner risk equation shows that fire is the highest risk at 7.7 ± 0.3, followed by harsh weather conditions at 5.6 ± 0.4 and least by tree diseases, pests and pathogens at 2.3 ± 0.2. Similarly, the mean (± s.d. output from the UNISDR risk equation also shows that fire is the highest risk at 2.9 ± 0.2, followed by harsh weather conditions at 2.2 ± 0.3 and least by tree diseases, pests and pathogens at 1.3 ± 0.2. There was no significant deference in the risk analysis outputs (p = 0.13. This study also found that the number of fire incidents were low during summer, but increased during winter and spring. This variation is mainly due to a converse relationship with rainfall, because the availability of rain moistens the area as well as the fuel. When the area and fuel is moist, fire incidents are reduced, but they increase with a decrease in fuel moisture.

  16. Caries risk assessment in young adults

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersson, Gunnel Hänsel; Twetman, Svante

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: To validate baseline caries risk classifications according to the Cariogram model with the actual caries development over a 3-year period in a group of young adults living in Sweden. METHODS: The study group consisted of 1,295 19-year-old patients that completed a comprehensive clinical...... baseline examination, including radiographs and salivary tests. An individual caries risk profile was computed and the patient was placed in one of five risk categories. After 3 years, 982 patients (75.8%) were re-examined and caries increment for each patient was calculated. The outcome was expressed...... as sensitivity, specificity and predictive values and compared with a risk assessment scheme used in Public Dental Service. RESULTS: The drop-outs displayed more risk factors and a significantly higher caries burden at baseline compared with those that remained in the project (p 

  17. Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Microorganisms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, B. L.; Wilcks, Andrea

    2001-01-01

    the industry, national administration and research institutions were gathered to discuss which elements should be considered in a risk assessment of genetically modified microorganisms used as food or food ingredients. The existing EU and national regulations were presented, together with the experiences......The rapid development of recombinant DNA techniques for food organisms urges for an ongoing discussion on the risk assessment of both new as traditional use of microorganisms in food production. This report, supported by the Nordic Council of Ministers, is the result of a workshop where people from...

  18. Concepts in ecological risk assessment. Professional paper

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnston, R.K.; Seligman, P.F.

    1991-05-01

    Assessing the risk of impact to natural ecosystems from xenobiotic compounds requires an accurate characterization of the threatened ecosystem, direct measures or estimates of environmental exposure, and a comprehensive evaluation of the biological effects from actual and potential contamination. Field and laboratory methods have been developed to obtain direct measures of environmental health. These methods have been implemented in monitoring programs to assess and verify the ecological risks of contamination from past events, such as hazardous waste disposal sites, as well as future scenarios, such as the environmental consequences from the use of biocides in antifouling bottom paints for ships.

  19. Recording pressure ulcer risk assessment and incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plaskitt, Anne; Heywood, Nicola; Arrowsmith, Michaela

    2015-07-15

    This article reports on the introduction of an innovative computer-based system developed to record and report pressure ulcer risk and incidence at an acute NHS trust. The system was introduced to ensure that all patients have an early pressure ulcer risk assessment, which prompts staff to initiate appropriate management if a pressure ulcer is detected, thereby preventing further patient harm. Initial findings suggest that this electronic process has helped to improve the timeliness and accuracy of data on pressure ulcer risk and incidence. In addition, it has resulted in a reduced number of reported hospital-acquired pressure ulcers.

  20. Application of geostatistics to risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thayer, William C; Griffith, Daniel A; Goodrum, Philip E; Diamond, Gary L; Hassett, James M

    2003-10-01

    Geostatistics offers two fundamental contributions to environmental contaminant exposure assessment: (1) a group of methods to quantitatively describe the spatial distribution of a pollutant and (2) the ability to improve estimates of the exposure point concentration by exploiting the geospatial information present in the data. The second contribution is particularly valuable when exposure estimates must be derived from small data sets, which is often the case in environmental risk assessment. This article addresses two topics related to the use of geostatistics in human and ecological risk assessments performed at hazardous waste sites: (1) the importance of assessing model assumptions when using geostatistics and (2) the use of geostatistics to improve estimates of the exposure point concentration (EPC) in the limited data scenario. The latter topic is approached here by comparing design-based estimators that are familiar to environmental risk assessors (e.g., Land's method) with geostatistics, a model-based estimator. In this report, we summarize the basics of spatial weighting of sample data, kriging, and geostatistical simulation. We then explore the two topics identified above in a case study, using soil lead concentration data from a Superfund site (a skeet and trap range). We also describe several areas where research is needed to advance the use of geostatistics in environmental risk assessment.

  1. Clinical practice of risk assessment of sexual violence

    OpenAIRE

    Judge, Joseph Gerard

    2012-01-01

    Background: Risk assessment of sexual violence involves evidence based evaluation of the risks posed by sexual offenders. It informs risk management; the provision of treatment that reduces the risk of future sexual violence. Previous research has focused on assessment of the predictive accuracy of different risk assessment tools, as well as the identification of risk factors that are associated with recidivism. In contrast, the clinical practice of risk assessment is a research a...

  2. Analysis of existing risk assessments, and list of suggestions

    CERN Document Server

    Heimsch, Laura

    2016-01-01

    The scope of this project was to analyse risk assessments made at CERN and extracting some crucial information about the different methodologies used, profiles of people who make the risk assessments, and gathering information of whether the risk matrix was used and if the acceptable level of risk was defined. Second step of the project was to trigger discussion inside HSE about risk assessment by suggesting a risk matrix and a risk assessment template.

  3. Sperm competition games: a general approach to risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ball, M A; Parker, G A

    1998-09-21

    We investigate game theory models of ejaculate expenditure by males in a species where there is a risk probability, q, that females will mate twice before laying a given set of eggs. With frequency 1-q females mate just once; then males optimally ejaculate an arbitrary minimum amount of sperm. The paper extends the analysis of Parker et al. (1997) in which males have limited information about the three risk states of the female: 0 (virgins which will mate now but not again), 1 (virgins which will mate now and then once more), and 2 (once-mated females who will mate now but not again). We derive a general structure for finding ESSs under imperfect information about states, and examine two special cases in which males know the overall risk probability q, but have imperfect knowledge of the states (0, 1, 2). In Case 1, males cannot distinguish between states 0 and 1 but have limited information about state 2. As their information increases, so does the difference in sperm allocation, with more going to females assessed as mated (state 2) than to females assessed as virgins (0, 1). This difference decreases with q in a species, but the average ejaculate expenditure increases with q. Even for small amounts of information, the behaviour as q-->0 is different from that predicted for zero information. In Case 2, males have perfect information about state 2, but limited information about states 0, 1. This has a major effect if q is small: males effectively behave as if they had perfect information by giving equal amounts of sperm to females assessed as 1 as those assessed to be 2, while giving a minimum amount to females assessed as 0. Ejaculate expenditures generally increase with the overall species-level risk q. A result common to both cases is that even a small amount of information allows more strategic choice than the zero information case and hence qualitatively different behaviour.

  4. Preparing for the unprecedented - Towards quantitative oil risk assessment in the Arctic marine areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nevalainen, Maisa; Helle, Inari; Vanhatalo, Jarno

    2017-01-15

    The probability of major oil accidents in Arctic seas is increasing alongside with increasing maritime traffic. Hence, there is a growing need to understand the risks posed by oil spills to these unique and sensitive areas. So far these risks have mainly been acknowledged in terms of qualitative descriptions. We introduce a probabilistic framework, based on a general food web approach, to analyze ecological impacts of oil spills. We argue that the food web approach based on key functional groups is more appropriate for providing holistic view of the involved risks than assessments based on single species. We discuss the issues characteristic to the Arctic that need a special attention in risk assessment, and provide examples how to proceed towards quantitative risk estimates. The conceptual model presented in the paper helps to identify the most important risk factors and can be used as a template for more detailed risk assessments. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  5. A comparative analysis of three online appraisal instruments' ability to assess validity in qualitative research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannes, Karin; Lockwood, Craig; Pearson, Alan

    2010-12-01

    The concept of validity has been a central component in critical appraisal exercises evaluating the methodological quality of quantitative studies. Reactions by qualitative researchers have been mixed in relation to whether or not validity should be applied to qualitative research and if so, what criteria should be used to distinguish high-quality articles from others. We compared three online critical appraisal instruments' ability to facilitate an assessment of validity. Many reviewers have used the critical appraisal skills program (CASP) tool to complete their critical appraisal exercise; however, CASP appears to be less sensitive to aspects of validity than the evaluation tool for qualitative studies (ETQS) and the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) tool. The ETQS provides detailed instructions on how to interpret criteria; however, it is the JBI tool, with its focus on congruity, that appears to be the most coherent.

  6. The early prediction of qualitative general movements'assessment about the occurrence of cerebral palsy in high risk newborns%全身运动质量评估对高危新生儿脑瘫发生的早期预测研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张莉; 贺越红; 唐良卫; 黄嘉瑜; 刘艳霞

    2016-01-01

    Objective To explore the early predictive value of qualitative general movements (GMs)assessment about the oc-currence of cerebral palsy in high risk newborns.Methods Eighty cases of high risk newborns who received treatment and followed up were studied.The digital camera was used to record and evaluate GMs and Gesell developmental scale was used to evaluate the motor development outcomes of the affected children.Results Among the 80 cases of high risk newborns,the prediction results of GMs twist stage were as follows:65.00%(52 /80)were normal,including 31.25%(25 /80)of PR and 3.75%(3 /80)of CS;As the motor devel-opmental outcome,96.25%(77 /80)were normal.The results of the Gesell development scale showed that 71.25%(57 /80)were nor-mal,25.00%(20 /80)were bradygenesis and 3.75%(3 /80)were abnormal.Conclusion GMs is a non-invasive and interfering in-spection means,which is simple and easy to operate.Its application in high risk newborns can effectively predict the occurrence of cere-bral palsy.It is of good economic and social benefits and is worthy of popularization and application.%目的:探析全身运动(GMS )质量评估在高危新生儿脑瘫发生中的早期预测价值。方法以我院新生儿科收治80例出生并接受治疗与随访的高危新生儿为研究对象,应用数码摄像机记录并评估 GMs,应用 Gesell 发育量表评估患儿运动发育。结果80例高危患儿中,GMs 扭动阶段预测结果为:65.00%(52/80)为正常,其中31.25%(25/80)为单调运动(PR)、3.75%(3/80)为痉挛一同步(CS);不安运动阶段96.25%(77/80)为正常。Gesell 发育量表(GDS)测评结果显示,71.25%(57/80)为正常,25.00%(20/80)为运动发育迟缓,3.75%(3/80)异常。结论 GMs 为非侵入性与干扰性检查手段,操作简便、经济,在高危新生儿中的应用可有效预测脑瘫发生,科学性高,值得临床推广应用。

  7. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

    1983-10-01

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research.

  8. Flood risk assessment and associated uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Apel

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Flood disaster mitigation strategies should be based on a comprehensive assessment of the flood risk combined with a thorough investigation of the uncertainties associated with the risk assessment procedure. Within the 'German Research Network of Natural Disasters' (DFNK the working group 'Flood Risk Analysis' investigated the flood process chain from precipitation, runoff generation and concentration in the catchment, flood routing in the river network, possible failure of flood protection measures, inundation to economic damage. The working group represented each of these processes by deterministic, spatially distributed models at different scales. While these models provide the necessary understanding of the flood process chain, they are not suitable for risk and uncertainty analyses due to their complex nature and high CPU-time demand. We have therefore developed a stochastic flood risk model consisting of simplified model components associated with the components of the process chain. We parameterised these model components based on the results of the complex deterministic models and used them for the risk and uncertainty analysis in a Monte Carlo framework. The Monte Carlo framework is hierarchically structured in two layers representing two different sources of uncertainty, aleatory uncertainty (due to natural and anthropogenic variability and epistemic uncertainty (due to incomplete knowledge of the system. The model allows us to calculate probabilities of occurrence for events of different magnitudes along with the expected economic damage in a target area in the first layer of the Monte Carlo framework, i.e. to assess the economic risks, and to derive uncertainty bounds associated with these risks in the second layer. It is also possible to identify the contributions of individual sources of uncertainty to the overall uncertainty. It could be shown that the uncertainty caused by epistemic sources significantly alters the results

  9. The relationship between housing status and HIV risk among active drug users: a qualitative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickson-Gomez, Julia; Hilario, Helena; Convey, Mark; Corbett, A Michelle; Weeks, Margaret; Martinez, Maria

    2009-01-01

    This paper examines the relationship between housing status and HIV risk using longitudinal, qualitative data collected in 2004-2005, from a purposeful sample of 65 active drug users in a variety of housed and homeless situations in Hartford, Connecticut. These data were supplemented with observations and in-depth interviews regarding drug use behavior collected in 2001-2005 to evaluate a peer-led HIV prevention intervention. Data reveal differences in social context within and among different housing statuses that affect HIV risk or protective behaviors including the ability to carry drug paraphernalia and HIV prevention materials, the amount of drugs in the immediate environment, access to subsidized and supportive housing, and relationships with those with whom drug users live. Policy implications of the findings, limitations to the data, and future research are discussed.

  10. RISK DISCLOSURE ANALYSIS IN THE CORPORATE GOVERNANCE ANNUAL REPORT USING FUZZY-SET QUALITATIVE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro Carmona

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the necessary and sufficient conditions of good Corporate Governance practices for high risk disclosure by firms in their Corporate Governance Annual Report. Additionally, we explore whether those recipes have changed during the financial crisis. With a sample of 271 Spanish listed companies, we applied fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis to a database of financial and non-financial data. We report that Board of Directors independence, size, level of activity and gender diversity, CEO duality, Audit Committee independence, being audited by the Big Four auditing firms and the presence of institutional investors are associated with high risk disclosure. The conditions included in almost every combination are the presence of institutional investors and being audited by the Big Four. We found similar combinations for 2006 and 2012, while the analysis for 2009 showed the lowest number of causal configurations.

  11. Risk assessment and management logistics chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir Vikulov

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: In the context of economic globalization and increasing complexity of economic relations enterprises need methods and techniques to improve and sustain their position on the global market. Integration processes offer business new opportunities, but at the same time present new challenges for the management, including the key objectives of the risk management. Method: On the basis of analysis tools known from the pertinent literature (Supply Chain Management and Supply Chain Risk Management methods, methods of probability theory, methods of risk management, methods of statistics the authors of this paper proposed their own risk assessment method and the method of management of logistics chains. The proposed tool is a specific hybrid of solutions known from the literature. Results: The presented method has been successfully used within the frames of economic-mathematical model of industrial enterprises. Indicators of supply chain risks, including risks caused by supplier are considered in this paper. Authors formed a method of optimizing the level of supply chain risk in the integration with suppliers and customers. Conclusion: Every organization, which starting the process of integration with supplier and customers, needs to use tools, methodologies and techniques for identification of "weak links" in the supply chain. The proposed method allows to fix risk origin places in various links of the supply chain and to identify "weak links" of a logistic chain that may occur in the future. The method is a useful tool for managing not only risks and risk situations, but also to improve the efficiency of current assets management by providing the ability to optimize the level of risk in the current assets management of the industrial enterprise.

  12. Handling Interdependencies in Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard J. Dawson

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Typically, a climate change risk assessment focuses on individual sectors or hazards. However, interdependencies between climate risks manifest themselves via functional, physical, geographical, economic, policy and social mechanisms. These can occur over a range of spatial or temporal scales and with different strengths of coupling. Three case studies are used to demonstrate how interdependencies can significantly alter the nature and magnitude of risk, and, consequently, investment priorities for adaptation. The three examples explore interdependencies that arise from (1 climate loading dependence; (2 mediation of two climate impacts by physical processes operating over large spatial extents; and, (3 multiple risks that are influenced by shared climatic and socio-economic drivers. Drawing upon learning from these case studies, and other work, a framework for the analysis and consideration of interdependencies in climate change risk assessment has been developed. This is an iterative learning loop that involves defining the system, scoping interaction mechanisms, applying appropriate modelling tools, identifying vulnerabilities and opportunities, and assessing the performance of adaptation interventions.

  13. Ecosystem services in risk assessment and management. ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The ecosystem services (ES) concept holds much promise for environmental decision making. Even so, the concept has yet to gain full traction in the decisions and policies of environmental agencies in the United States, Europe, and elsewhere. Here we examine the opportunities for and implications of including ES in risk assessments and the risk management decisions that they inform. We assert that use of ES will: 1) lead to more comprehensive environmental protection; 2) help to articulate the benefits of environmental decisions, policies, and actions; 3) better inform the derivation of environmental quality standards; 4) enable integration of human health and ecological risk assessment; and 5) facilitate horizontal integration of policies, regulations, and programs. We provide the technical basis and supporting rationale for each assertion, relying on examples taken from experiences in the United States and European Union. Specific recommendations are offered for use of ES in risk assessment and risk management, and issues and challenges to advancing use of ES are described along with some of the science needed to improve the value of the ES concept to environmental protection. This paper is one of 4 papers generated from the 2014 Pellston Workshop “Ecosystem Services, Environmental Stressors and Decision Making,” organized jointly by the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry and the Ecological Society of America. The main workshop objective was

  14. Risk assessment for SAGD well blowouts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Worth, D.; Alhanati, F.; Lastiwka, M. [C-FER Technologies, Edmonton, AB (Canada); Crepin, S. [Petrocedeno, Caracas (Venezuela)

    2008-10-15

    This paper discussed a steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) pilot project currently being conducted in Venezuela's Orinoco Belt. A risk assessment was conducted as part of the pilot program in order to evaluate the use of single barrier completions in conjunction with a blowout response plan. The study considered 3 options: (1) an isolated double barrier completion with a downhole safety valve (DHSV) in the production tubing string and a packer in the production casing annulus; (2) a partially isolated completion with no DHSV and a packer in the production casing annulus; and (3) an open single barrier completion with no additional downhole barriers. A reservoir model was used to assess the blowout flowing potential of SAGD well pairs. The probability of a blowout was estimated using fault tree analysis techniques. Risk was determined for various blowout scenarios, including blowouts during normal and workover operations, as well as blowouts through various flow paths. Total risk for each completion scenario was also determined at 3 different time periods within the production life of the well pair. The possible consequences of a blowout were assessed using quantitative consequence models. Results of the study showed that environmental and economic risks were much higher for the open completion technique. Higher risks were also associated with the earlier life of the completion strings. 20 refs., 3 tabs., 19 figs.

  15. Beliefs and beyond: what can we learn from qualitative studies of lay people’s understandings of cancer risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipworth, Wendy L.; Davey, Heather M.; Carter, Stacy M.; Hooker, Claire; Hu, Wendy

    2010-01-01

    Abstract Background  Clinicians and public health professionals are centrally concerned with mediating risk. However, people often resist the risk‐related information that is communicated to them by experts, or have their own models of risk that conflict with expert views. Quantitative studies have clearly demonstrated the importance of health beliefs and various cognitive and emotional processes in shaping risk perception. More recently, a growing body of qualitative research has emerged, exploring lay conceptualizations, experiences and constructions of cancer risk. To date, this literature has not been synthesized. Objective  We report the findings of a synthesis of qualitative literature regarding the ways in which lay people construct and experience cancer risk. Design  We identified 87 articles and used the method of ‘thematic synthesis’ to identify and interpret key concepts from existing studies. Results  Eight analytic categories were developed: (i) perceptions of risk factors; (ii) process of risk perception; (iii) seeking control and taking responsibility (motivational factors); (iv) experiencing cancer directly; (v) constructing risk temporally; (vi) embodying risk; (vii) identifying with risk; and (viii) constructing risk in a social context. Conclusions  Qualitative enquiry can provide us with a rich and nuanced picture of the ways in which people understand, experience and construct risk and how being ‘at risk’ is managed, and can assist us in our communication with both individual patients and populations. PMID:20536535

  16. Automating defence generation for risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gadyatskaya, Olga

    2016-01-01

    Efficient risk assessment requires automation of its most tedious tasks: identification of vulnerabilities, attacks that can exploit these vulnerabilities, and countermeasures that can mitigate the attacks. E.g., the attack tree generation by policy invalidation approach looks at systematic automati

  17. Soil Erosion Risk Assessment and Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fister, Wolfgang; Kuhn, Nikolaus J.; Heckrath, Goswin

    2013-04-01

    Soil erosion is a phenomenon with relevance for many research topics in the geosciences. Consequently, PhD students with many different backgrounds are exposed to soil erosion related questions during their research. These students require a compact, but detailed introduction to erosion processes, the risks associated with erosion, but also tools to assess and study erosion related questions ranging from a simple risk assessment to effects of climate change on erosion-related effects on geochemistry on various scales. The PhD course on Soil Erosion Risk Assessment and Modelling offered by the University of Aarhus and conducted jointly with the University of Basel is aimed at graduate students with degrees in the geosciences and a PhD research topic with a link to soil erosion. The course offers a unique introduction to erosion processes, conventional risk assessment and field-truthing of results. This is achieved by combing lectures, mapping, erosion experiments, and GIS-based erosion modelling. A particular mark of the course design is the direct link between the results of each part of the course activities. This ensures the achievement of a holistic understanding of erosion in the environment as a key learning outcome.

  18. Dermal absorption and toxicological risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buist, H.

    2016-01-01

    Absorption of toxic substances via the skin is an important phenomenon in the assessment of the risk of exposure to these substances. People are exposed to a variety of substances and products via the skin, either directly or indirectly, while at work, at home or in public space. Pesticides, organic

  19. Risk assessment as an argumentation game

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Prakken, Henry; Ionita, Dan; Wieringa, Roel; Leite, J.; Son, T.C.; Torrini, P.; Van Der Torre, L.; Woltran, S.

    2013-01-01

    This paper explores the idea that IT security risk assessment can be formalized as an argumentation game in which assessors argue about how the system can be attacked by a threat agent and defended by the assessors. A system architecture plus assumptions about the environment is specified as an ASPI

  20. Dermal absorption and toxicological risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buist, H.

    2016-01-01

    Absorption of toxic substances via the skin is an important phenomenon in the assessment of the risk of exposure to these substances. People are exposed to a variety of substances and products via the skin, either directly or indirectly, while at work, at home or in public space. Pesticides, organic

  1. Incorporating Agency Into Climate Change Risk Assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, R.N. [CSIRO Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Victoria, 3195 (Australia)

    2004-11-01

    Human agency has been viewed as a problem for climate change assessments because of its contribution to uncertainty. In this editorial, I outline the advantages of agency in managing climate change risks, describing how those advantages can be placed within a probabilistic framework.

  2. Health Risk Assessment for Organotins in Textiles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen PJCM; Veen MP van; Speijers GJA; CSR; LBM

    2000-01-01

    In January 1998 RIVM was asked to carry out a preliminary risk assessment on organic tin compounds (organotins) in textiles. Measurements carried out by the Dutch Health Protection Inspectorate had shown these potentially toxic compounds to be present in several consumer products, including items of

  3. New risk assessment tools in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kraker, H. de; Douwes, M.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper an introduction to and description of the risk assessment tools that are freely available for companies in The Netherlands is given. It is explained in what way the tools can and should be used and how the level I checklist for physical load and the level II instruments are related. Th

  4. Economic impact assessment in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soliman, T.A.A.; Mourits, M.C.M.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Werf, van der W.

    2010-01-01

    According to international treaties, phytosanitary measures against introduction and spread of invasive plant pests must be justified by a science-based pest risk analysis (PRA). Part of the PRA consists of an assessment of potential economic consequences. This paper evaluates the main available tec

  5. Simulation modeling for microbial risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassin, M H; Paoli, G M; Lammerding, A M

    1998-11-01

    Quantitative microbial risk assessment implies an estimation of the probability and impact of adverse health outcomes due to microbial hazards. In the case of food safety, the probability of human illness is a complex function of the variability of many parameters that influence the microbial environment, from the production to the consumption of a food. The analytical integration required to estimate the probability of foodborne illness is intractable in all but the simplest of models. Monte Carlo simulation is an alternative to computing analytical solutions. In some cases, a risk assessment may be commissioned to serve a larger purpose than simply the estimation of risk. A Monte Carlo simulation can provide insights into complex processes that are invaluable, and otherwise unavailable, to those charged with the task of risk management. Using examples from a farm-to-fork model of the fate of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in ground beef hamburgers, this paper describes specifically how such goals as research prioritization, risk-based characterization of control points, and risk-based comparison of intervention strategies can be objectively achieved using Monte Carlo simulation.

  6. Housing conditions in calves welfare risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Relić Renata R.

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper shows results of calf welfare risk assessment at intensive breeding farms. Assessment has been conducted on the basis of housing conditions which can have negative influence on welfare of cattle, especially in calf category considering their needs. According to analysis results very good housing conditions were confirmed in open shed rearing stall (C and closed type rearing stall without feeding yard (A, whilst in closed rearing stall with feeding yard (B housing conditions were estimated as acceptable. Based on collected data about housing conditions, we have estimated that the least risk for calf welfare is at C farm, slightly higher at A farm and the highest at B farm. Data about housing conditions and analysis of potential welfare risk factors show possible causes for already present health and other problems with animals, which also can reappear in future. However for that reason, applying described methods can increase rearing conditions and increase production at cattle farms.

  7. Geographical assessment of body measurements and qualitative traits in West African cattle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Traoré, Amadou; Koudandé, Delphin Oloronto; Fernández, Iván; Soudré, Albert; Granda, Víctor; Álvarez, Isabel; Diarra, Siaka; Diarra, Fousseyni; Kaboré, Adama; Sanou, Moumouni; Tamboura, Hamidou Hamadou; Goyache, Félix

    2015-12-01

    A total of 1015 adult cows belonging to nine West African cattle breeds were assessed for 16 body measurements and 18 qualitative traits to ascertain the existence of geographical patterns of variation. Sampling was carried out in 29 different provinces of Mali, Burkina Faso and Benin. For body measurements, taurine breeds took lower average values than the zebu breeds. Sanga cattle took intermediate values. Qualitative traits did not allow to differentiate among cattle groups (taurine, zebu or sanga) or breeds. Principal component analysis identified two factors explaining 56.4 and 9.2 % of the variance for body measurements, respectively. Two correspondence analysis dimensions computed on qualitative traits explained a small proportion of the variability (20.8 and 13.5 %, respectively). Contour plots were constructed using the eigenvalues computed for each individual and either factor or dimension identified; confidence regions calculated confirmed that body measurements clearly differentiated zebu and taurine cattle breeds while qualitative traits did not. Factor 1 was projected on a geographical map, using provinces as nodes, to assess breed-free variation for body measurements. A pattern of continuous variation from the Sahel area southwards was identified. Probably, breeding decisions promoting the crosses between zebu-like and taurine cattle are underlying this geographical pattern of variation. The implementation of selection strategies aiming at the increase of the productivity of native West African taurine cattle breeds while avoiding looses in trypanotolerant ability would be highly advisable.

  8. Fragility fracture: recent developments in risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aspray, Terry J

    2015-02-01

    More than half of older women who sustain a fragility fracture do not have osteoporosis by World Health Organization (WHO) bone mineral density (BMD) criteria; and, while BMD has been used to assess fracture risk for over 30 years, a range of other skeletal and nonskeletal clinical risk factors (CRFs) for fracture have been recognized. More than 30 assessment tools using CRFs have been developed, some predicting fracture risk and others low BMD alone. Recent systematic reviews have reported that many tools have not been validated against fracture incidence, and that the complexity of tools and the number of CRFs included do not ensure best performance with poor assessment of (internal or comparative) validity. Internationally, FRAX® is the most commonly recommended tool, in addition to QFracture in the UK, The Canadian Association of Radiologists and Osteoporosis Canada (CAROC) tool in Canada and Garvan in Australia. All tools estimate standard 10-year risk of major osteoporotic and 10-year risk of hip fracture: FRAX® is able to estimate fracture risk either with or without BMD, but CAROC and Garvan both require BMD and QFracture does not. The best evidence for the utility of these tools is in case finding but there may be future prospects for the use of 10-year fracture risk as a common currency with reference to the benefits of treatment, whether pharmacological or lifestyle. The use of this metric is important in supporting health economic analyses. However, further calibration studies will be needed to prove that the tools are robust and that their estimates can be used in supporting treatment decisions, independent of BMD.

  9. Model based risk assessment - the CORAS framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P-J.

    2004-04-15

    Traditional risk analysis and assessment is based on failure-oriented models of the system. In contrast to this, model-based risk assessment (MBRA) utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The target models are then used as input sources for complementary risk analysis and assessment techniques, as well as a basis for the documentation of the assessment results. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tested with successful outcome through a series of seven trial within the telemedicine and ecommerce areas. The CORAS project in general and the CORAS application of MBRA in particular have contributed positively to the visibility of model-based risk assessment and thus to the disclosure of several potentials for further exploitation of various aspects within this important research field. In that connection, the CORAS methodology's possibilities for further improvement towards utilization in more complex architectures and also in other application domains such as the nuclear field can be addressed. The latter calls for adapting the framework to address nuclear standards such as IEC 60880 and IEC 61513. For this development we recommend applying a trial driven approach within the nuclear field. The tool supported approach for combining risk analysis and system development also fits well with the HRP proposal for developing an Integrated Design Environment (IDE) providing efficient methods and tools to support control room systems design. (Author)

  10. Alternative BSE risk assessment methodology for beef and beef offal imported into Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshikawa, Yasuhiro; Horiuchi, Motohiro; Ishiguro, Naotaka; Kadohira, Mutsuyo; Kai, Satoshi; Mizusawa, Hidehiro; Nagata, Chisato; Onodera, Takashi; Sata, Tetsutaro; Tsutsui, Toshiyuki; Yamada, Masahito; Yamamoto, Shigeki

    2012-08-01

    The Food Safety Commission (FSC) of Japan, established in July 2003, has its own initiative to conduct risk assessments on food stuffs known as "self-tasking assessment". Within this framework, the FSC decided to conduct a risk assessment of beef and beef offal imported into Japan from countries with no previous BSE reports; thus, a methodology was formed to suit to this purpose. This methodology was partly based on the previous assessments of Japanese domestic beef and beef imported from U.S.A./Canada, but some modifications were made. Other organizations' assessment methods, such as those used for BSE status assessment in live cattle by the OIE and EFSA's GBR, were also consulted. In this review, the authors introduce this alternative methodology, which reflects (1) the risk of live cattle in the assessed country including temporal risks of BSE invasion and domestic propagation, with the assessment results verified by surveillance data, and (2) the risk of beef and beef offal consisting of cumulative BSE risk by types of slaughtering and meat production processes implemented and the status of mechanically recovered meat production. Other possible influencing factors such as atypical BSE cases were also reviewed. The key characteristic of the current assessment is a combination of the time-sequential risk level of live cattle and qualitative risk level of meat production at present in an assessed country.

  11. Behavioral toxicology, risk assessment, and chlorinated hydrocarbons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evangelista de Duffard, A.M.; Duffard, R. [Laboratorio de Toxicologia Experimental, Santa Fe (Argentina)

    1996-04-01

    Behavioral end points are being used with greater frequency in neurotoxicology to detect and characterize the adverse effects of chemicals on the nervous system. Behavioral measures are particularly important for neurotoxicity risk assessment since many known neurotoxicants do not result in neuropathology. The chlorinated hydrocarbon class consists of a wide variety of chemicals including polychlorinated biphenyls, clioquinol, trichloroethylene, hexachlorophene, organochlorine insecticides (DDT, dicofol, chlordecone, dieldrin, and lindane), and phenoxyherbicides. Each of these chemicals has effects on motor, sensory, or cognitive function that are detectable using functional measures such as behavior. Furthermore, there is evidence that if exposure occurs during critical periods of development, many of the chlorinated hydrocarbons are developmental neurotoxicants. Developmental neurotoxicity is frequently expressed as alterations in motor function or cognitive abilities or charges in the ontogeny of sensorimotor reflexes. Neurotoxicity risk assessment should include assessments of the full range of possible neurotoxicological effects, including both structural and functional indicators of neurotoxicity. 121 refs., 1 tab.

  12. Levels and occupational health risk assessment of trace metals in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Levels and occupational health risk assessment of trace metals in soils from ... African Journal of Environmental Science and Technology ... The trace metal levels were subjected to risk assessment model to estimate toxic risks due to ...

  13. Seismic Risk Assessment for the Kyrgyz Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pittore, Massimiliano; Sousa, Luis; Grant, Damian; Fleming, Kevin; Parolai, Stefano; Fourniadis, Yannis; Free, Matthew; Moldobekov, Bolot; Takeuchi, Ko

    2017-04-01

    The Kyrgyz Republic is one of the most socially and economically dynamic countries in Central Asia, and one of the most endangered by earthquake hazard in the region. In order to support the government of the Kyrgyz Republic in the development of a country-level Disaster Risk Reduction strategy, a comprehensive seismic risk study has been developed with the support of the World Bank. As part of this project, state-of-the-art hazard, exposure and vulnerability models have been developed and combined into the assessment of direct physical and economic risk on residential, educational and transportation infrastructure. The seismic hazard has been modelled with three different approaches, in order to provide a comprehensive overview of the possible consequences. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) approach has been used to quantitatively evaluate the distribution of expected ground shaking intensity, as constrained by the compiled earthquake catalogue and associated seismic source model. A set of specific seismic scenarios based on events generated from known fault systems have been also considered, in order to provide insight on the expected consequences in case of strong events in proximity of densely inhabited areas. Furthermore, long-span catalogues of events have been generated stochastically and employed in the probabilistic analysis of expected losses over the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic. Damage and risk estimates have been computed by using an exposure model recently developed for the country, combined with the assignment of suitable fragility/vulnerability models. The risk estimation has been carried out with spatial aggregation at the district (rayon) level. The obtained results confirm the high level of seismic risk throughout the country, also pinpointing the location of several risk hotspots, particularly in the southern districts, in correspondence with the Ferghana valley. The outcome of this project will further support the local

  14. Asteroid Risk Assessment: A Probabilistic Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reinhardt, Jason C; Chen, Xi; Liu, Wenhao; Manchev, Petar; Paté-Cornell, M Elisabeth

    2016-02-01

    Following the 2013 Chelyabinsk event, the risks posed by asteroids attracted renewed interest, from both the scientific and policy-making communities. It reminded the world that impacts from near-Earth objects (NEOs), while rare, have the potential to cause great damage to cities and populations. Point estimates of the risk (such as mean numbers of casualties) have been proposed, but because of the low-probability, high-consequence nature of asteroid impacts, these averages provide limited actionable information. While more work is needed to further refine its input distributions (e.g., NEO diameters), the probabilistic model presented in this article allows a more complete evaluation of the risk of NEO impacts because the results are distributions that cover the range of potential casualties. This model is based on a modularized simulation that uses probabilistic inputs to estimate probabilistic risk metrics, including those of rare asteroid impacts. Illustrative results of this analysis are presented for a period of 100 years. As part of this demonstration, we assess the effectiveness of civil defense measures in mitigating the risk of human casualties. We find that they are likely to be beneficial but not a panacea. We also compute the probability-but not the consequences-of an impact with global effects ("cataclysm"). We conclude that there is a continued need for NEO observation, and for analyses of the feasibility and risk-reduction effectiveness of space missions designed to deflect or destroy asteroids that threaten the Earth. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  15. An abuse of risk assessment: how regulatory agencies improperly adopted LNT for cancer risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calabrese, Edward J

    2015-04-01

    The Genetics Panel of the National Academy of Sciences' Committee on Biological Effects of Atomic Radiation (BEAR) recommended the adoption of the linear dose-response model in 1956, abandoning the threshold dose-response for genetic risk assessments. This recommendation was quickly generalized to include somatic cells for cancer risk assessment and later was instrumental in the adoption of linearity for carcinogen risk assessment by the Environmental Protection Agency. The Genetics Panel failed to provide any scientific assessment to support this recommendation and refused to do so when later challenged by other leading scientists. Thus, the linearity model used in cancer risk assessment was based on ideology rather than science and originated with the recommendation of the NAS BEAR Committee Genetics Panel. Historical documentation in support of these conclusions is provided in the transcripts of the Panel meetings and in previously unexamined correspondence among Panel members.

  16. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Contact Sensitization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Api, Anne Marie; Belsito, Donald; Bickers, David;

    2010-01-01

    Background: Contact hypersensitivity quantitative risk assessment (QRA) for fragrance ingredients is being used to establish new international standards for all fragrance ingredients that are potential skin sensitizers. Objective: The objective was to evaluate the retrospective clinical data...... on three fragrance ingredients in order to provide a practical assessment of the predictive value of the QRA approach. It is important to have data to assess that the methodology provides a robust approach for primary prevention of contact sensitization induction for fragrance ingredients identified...... as potential sensitizers. Methods: This article reviews clinical data for three fragrance ingredients cinnamic aldehyde, citral, and isoeugenol to assess the utility of the QRA approach for fragrance ingredients. Results: This assessment suggests that had the QRA approach been available at the time standards...

  17. A toolbox for rockfall Quantitative Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agliardi, F.; Mavrouli, O.; Schubert, M.; Corominas, J.; Crosta, G. B.; Faber, M. H.; Frattini, P.; Narasimhan, H.

    2012-04-01

    Rockfall Quantitative Risk Analysis for mitigation design and implementation requires evaluating the probability of rockfall events, the probability and intensity of impacts on structures (elements at risk and countermeasures), their vulnerability, and the related expected costs for different scenarios. A sound theoretical framework has been developed during the last years both for spatially-distributed and local (i.e. single element at risk) analyses. Nevertheless, the practical application of existing methodologies remains challenging, due to difficulties in the collection of required data and to the lack of simple, dedicated analysis tools. In order to fill this gap, specific tools have been developed in the form of Excel spreadsheets, in the framework of Safeland EU project. These tools can be used by stakeholders, practitioners and other interested parties for the quantitative calculation of rock fall risk through its key components (probabilities, vulnerability, loss), using combinations of deterministic and probabilistic approaches. Three tools have been developed, namely: QuRAR (by UNIMIB), VulBlock (by UPC), and RiskNow-Falling Rocks (by ETH Zurich). QuRAR implements a spatially distributed, quantitative assessment methodology of rockfall risk for individual buildings or structures in a multi-building context (urban area). Risk is calculated in terms of expected annual cost, through the evaluation of rockfall event probability, propagation and impact probability (by 3D numerical modelling of rockfall trajectories), and empirical vulnerability for different risk protection scenarios. Vulblock allows a detailed, analytical calculation of the vulnerability of reinforced concrete frame buildings to rockfalls and related fragility curves, both as functions of block velocity and the size. The calculated vulnerability can be integrated in other methodologies/procedures based on the risk equation, by incorporating the uncertainty of the impact location of the rock

  18. Resources for global risk assessment: the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) and Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) databases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wullenweber, Andrea; Kroner, Oliver; Kohrman, Melissa; Maier, Andrew; Dourson, Michael; Rak, Andrew; Wexler, Philip; Tomljanovic, Chuck

    2008-11-15

    The rate of chemical synthesis and use has outpaced the development of risk values and the resolution of risk assessment methodology questions. In addition, available risk values derived by different organizations may vary due to scientific judgments, mission of the organization, or use of more recently published data. Further, each organization derives values for a unique chemical list so it can be challenging to locate data on a given chemical. Two Internet resources are available to address these issues. First, the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) database (www.tera.org/iter) provides chronic human health risk assessment data from a variety of organizations worldwide in a side-by-side format, explains differences in risk values derived by different organizations, and links directly to each organization's website for more detailed information. It is also the only database that includes risk information from independent parties whose risk values have undergone independent peer review. Second, the Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) is a database of in progress chemical risk assessment work, and includes non-chemical information related to human health risk assessment, such as training modules, white papers and risk documents. RiskIE is available at http://www.allianceforrisk.org/RiskIE.htm, and will join ITER on National Library of Medicine's TOXNET (http://toxnet.nlm.nih.gov/). Together, ITER and RiskIE provide risk assessors essential tools for easily identifying and comparing available risk data, for sharing in progress assessments, and for enhancing interaction among risk assessment groups to decrease duplication of effort and to harmonize risk assessment procedures across organizations.

  19. Flood risk assessment of land pollution hotspots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masi, Matteo; Arrighi, Chiara; Iannelli, Renato

    2017-04-01

    Among the risks caused by extreme events, the potential spread of pollutants stored in land hotspots due to floods is an aspect that has been rarely examined with a risk-based approach. In this contribution, an attempt to estimate pollution risks related to flood events of land pollution hotspots was carried out. Flood risk has been defined as the combination of river flood hazard, hotspots exposure and vulnerability to contamination of the area, i.e. the expected severity of the environmental impacts. The assessment was performed on a geographical basis, using geo-referenced open data, available from databases of land management institutions, authorities and agencies. The list of land pollution hotspots included landfills and other waste handling facilities (e.g., temporary storage, treatment and recycling sites), municipal wastewater treatment plants, liquid waste treatment facilities and contaminated sites. The assessment was carried out by combining geo-referenced data of pollution hotspots with flood hazard maps. We derived maps of land pollution risk based on geographical and geological properties and source characteristics available from environmental authorities. These included information about soil particle size, soil hydraulic conductivity, terrain slope, type of stored pollutants, the type of facility, capacity, size of the area, land use, etc. The analysis was carried out at catchment scale. The case study of the Arno river basin in Tuscany (central Italy) is presented.

  20. Unrealistic optimism, fatalism, and risk-taking in New Zealand farmers' descriptions of quad-bike incidents: a directed qualitative content analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clay, Lynne; Hay-Smith, E Jean C; Treharne, Gareth J; Milosavljevic, Stephan

    2015-01-01

    Quad-bike incidents are a major cause of occupational injury and fatality on farms warranting health and safety attention. As part of a larger study, we carried out a face-to-face survey with 216 farmers in New Zealand. We quantitatively identified farmers' propensity for risk-taking, unrealistic optimism, and fatalism as risk factors in quad-bike loss-of-control events (LCEs). The purpose of the analysis presented in this article was to use these same farmers' recollections of LCEs to explore the a priori constructs in more detail using qualitative methods. Participants reporting one or more LCEs described their first LCE and any experienced in the previous 12 months. Participants provided open-text responses about what occurred at each LCE, their reflections, and general thoughts on LCE risk factors. Directed qualitative content analysis (QCA) was used to "unpack" risk-taking, unrealistic optimism, and fatalism whilst also delineating any additional concepts that farmers associate with LCEs. Risk-taking elements were more evident than unrealistic optimism or fatalism and more suggestive of farmers finding themselves in risky situations rather than engaging in risk-seeking behavior per se. Additional inductively derived categories of fatigue/stress, multitasking, inexperience, and quad-bike faults highlight the complex nature of LCEs and the importance of risk assessment covering these concepts as well as risky situations.

  1. Qualitative research in Spanish cannabis social clubs: "The moment you enter the door, you are minimising the risks".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belackova, Vendula; Tomkova, Alexandra; Zabransky, Tomas

    2016-08-01

    Cannabis social clubs (CSCs) in Spain are non-profit organisations that connect regular adult cannabis users. One of their functions is to supply cannabis to the closed circuit of members. The CSCs do not breach any international treaties. The aim of the paper is to present the findings of a qualitative study among Spanish CSCs in order to assess their potential for minimising the harm resulting from cannabis use (such as respiratory and mental health risks, the risk of dependence, and social risks). A convenience sample of 11 CSCs was selected from four regions of Spain - the Basque country, Catalonia, the Balearic Islands, and Galicia. 94 respondents took part in 14 focus groups (FGs). The number of participants in a FG ranged from two to 12. A semi-structured interview guide and a structured questionnaire were used in the FG. Members described a variety of risk minimising features of the CSCs: the availability of a quality product and mechanisms for its control, availability of different strains of cannabis and knowledge about their different psychoactive effects, increased control over personal cannabis use, informal information sharing and interaction, reduced stigma, and reduced criminal risks. The fact that the CSCs have no incentive to increase members' consumption means that they should be considered to be feasible spaces for the implementation of public health policies. Policy objectives could include a requirement that CSC members have control over the quality of cannabis, that different strains of cannabis are available together with information on their effects, that quantity of cannabis at intake is restricted and planned for each member, and that harm minimisation activities are both formally and informally implemented in the clubs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Groundwater Risk Assessment Model (GRAM: Groundwater Risk Assessment Model for Wellfield Protection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nara Somaratne

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available A groundwater risk assessment was carried out for 30 potable water supply systems under a framework of protecting drinking water quality across South Australia. A semi-quantitative Groundwater Risk Assessment Model (GRAM was developed based on a “multi-barrier” approach using likelihood of release, contaminant pathway and consequence equation. Groundwater vulnerability and well integrity have been incorporated to the pathway component of the risk equation. The land use of the study basins varies from protected water reserves to heavily stocked grazing lands. Based on the risk assessment, 15 systems were considered as low risk, four as medium and 11 systems as at high risk. The GRAM risk levels were comparable with indicator bacteria—total coliform—detection. Most high risk systems were the result of poor well construction and casing corrosion rather than the land use. We carried out risk management actions, including changes to well designs and well operational practices, design to increase time of residence and setting the production zone below identified low permeable zones to provide additional barriers to contaminants. The highlight of the risk management element is the well integrity testing using down hole geophysical methods and camera views of the casing condition.

  3. A qualitative exploration of which resident skills parents in pediatric emergency departments can assess.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreau, Katherine A; Eady, Kaylee; Frank, Jason R; Hamstra, Stanley J; Karwowska, Anna; Murnaghan, Aleisha; Pound, Catherine M; Tse, Sandy; Jabbour, Mona

    2016-11-01

    Residents must strive for excellence in their nontechnical skills (NTS). However, NTS have not traditionally been well-assessed in pediatric emergency departments (EDs). One underutilized assessment strategy is to have parents assess the residents caring for their children. Prior to involving parents in resident assessment, it is essential to identify which NTS parents in pediatric EDs can assess. To explore which resident NTS parents in pediatric EDs can assess. An exploratory qualitative study design was used. It included interviews with faculty members involved in the supervision and assessment of residents in a pediatric ED and residents who had experience working in a pediatric ED, as well as focus groups with parents who had visited a pediatric ED at least twice in the past year. Participants in this study suggested that parents, if provided with the opportunity, can assess residents' communication skills, comfort in a pediatric setting, adaptability, and collaboration. This study demystifies how parents can become involved in the assessment of residents' NTS. The findings will inform the development of assessment strategies and could be used to develop assessment instruments that enable parents to become actively involved in the assessment of residents in pediatric EDs.

  4. Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a “gold standard” for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable. PMID:26322307

  5. Can systematic reviews inform GMO risk assessment and risk management?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian eKohl

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a gold standard for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper we 1 consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO and 2 critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable.

  6. Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a "gold standard" for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable.

  7. Perceptions of Patient Engagement Applications During Pregnancy: A Qualitative Assessment of the Patient’s Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goetz, Maren; Müller, Mitho; Matthies, Lina Maria; Hansen, Jenny; Doster, Anne; Szabo, Akos; Pauluschke-Fröhlich, Jan; Abele, Harald; Sohn, Christof

    2017-01-01

    Background With growing demand for medical information and health applications in pregnancy, the potential of electronic health (eHealth) and mobile health (mHealth) solutions in clinical care is increasingly unfolding. However, we still do not know how pregnant women engage with mobile apps, how such apps impact routine medical care, and whether benefit expectations are met. Whereas recent research has raised the subject of user distribution and analyzed the content of pregnancy applications, there is still a significant knowledge gap regarding what pregnant women like and dislike about pregnancy tools, along with how such interventions could be improved. Objective The aim of the study was to examine the perceptions and expectations of mobile and Web-based patient-engagement pregnancy applications. We assessed usability requirements, general acceptance of eHealth, and the impact of eHealth and mHealth pregnancy applications on the doctor-patient interaction and daily clinical routine. Methods A qualitative study was conducted at the maternity department of a major German university hospital. The sample included 30 women with low- to medium-risk pregnancies. Half of the patients were seen during outpatient care and half were hospitalized for several days. The extent and frequency of Web- and mobile phone app usage were assessed. Semistructured interviews were conducted and analyzed using systematic thematic analysis. Results Patients had a high demand for Web-based pregnancy applications. Study findings suggested a strong request for personalization, monitoring, and accessibility for frequent use as main themes derived from the interviews. Fostering patient empowerment in the doctor-patient relationship was also highly valued for a pregnancy app. Participants favored further integration of medical apps in their daily routine and pregnancy care. However, concerns were raised about content quality, trustworthiness of Web sources, and individual data security

  8. Perceptions of Patient Engagement Applications During Pregnancy: A Qualitative Assessment of the Patient's Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goetz, Maren; Müller, Mitho; Matthies, Lina Maria; Hansen, Jenny; Doster, Anne; Szabo, Akos; Pauluschke-Fröhlich, Jan; Abele, Harald; Sohn, Christof; Wallwiener, Markus; Wallwiener, Stephanie

    2017-05-26

    With growing demand for medical information and health applications in pregnancy, the potential of electronic health (eHealth) and mobile health (mHealth) solutions in clinical care is increasingly unfolding. However, we still do not know how pregnant women engage with mobile apps, how such apps impact routine medical care, and whether benefit expectations are met. Whereas recent research has raised the subject of user distribution and analyzed the content of pregnancy applications, there is still a significant knowledge gap regarding what pregnant women like and dislike about pregnancy tools, along with how such interventions could be improved. The aim of the study was to examine the perceptions and expectations of mobile and Web-based patient-engagement pregnancy applications. We assessed usability requirements, general acceptance of eHealth, and the impact of eHealth and mHealth pregnancy applications on the doctor-patient interaction and daily clinical routine. A qualitative study was conducted at the maternity department of a major German university hospital. The sample included 30 women with low- to medium-risk pregnancies. Half of the patients were seen during outpatient care and half were hospitalized for several days. The extent and frequency of Web- and mobile phone app usage were assessed. Semistructured interviews were conducted and analyzed using systematic thematic analysis. Patients had a high demand for Web-based pregnancy applications. Study findings suggested a strong request for personalization, monitoring, and accessibility for frequent use as main themes derived from the interviews. Fostering patient empowerment in the doctor-patient relationship was also highly valued for a pregnancy app. Participants favored further integration of medical apps in their daily routine and pregnancy care. However, concerns were raised about content quality, trustworthiness of Web sources, and individual data security. eHealth and mHealth applications are a

  9. Importance assessment of decision attributes: A qualitative study comparing experts and laypersons

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heerkens, Johannes M.G.; Norde, Christiaan; van der Heijden, Beatrice

    2011-01-01

    Purpose – This paper aims to investigate differences between experts and laypersons concerning the way they assess the importance of each of the various decision attributes (cost, risk, feasibility) taken into consideration during decision processes in an organizational setting.

  10. [Risk assessment of genetically modified organisms].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Thadeu Estevam Moreira Maramaldo; Dias, Aline Peçanha Muzy; Scheidegger, Erica Miranda Damasio; Marin, Victor Augustus

    2011-01-01

    Since the commercial approve in 1996, the global area of transgenic crops has raised more than 50 times. In the last two decades, governments have been planning strategies and protocols for safety assessment of food and feed genetically modified (GM). Evaluation of food safety should be taken on a case-by-case analysis depending on the specific traits of the modified crops and the changes introduced by the genetic modification, using for this the concept of substantial equivalence. This work presents approaches for the risk assessment of GM food, as well as some problems related with the genetic construction or even with the expression of the inserted gene.

  11. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  12. Probabilistic risk assessment of disassembly procedures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O`Brien, D.A.; Bement, T.R.; Letellier, B.C.

    1993-11-01

    The purpose of this report is to describe the use of Probabilistic Risk (Safety) Assessment (PRA or PSA) at a Department of Energy (DOE) facility. PRA is a methodology for (i) identifying combinations of events that, if they occur, lead to accidents (ii) estimating the frequency of occurrence of each combination of events and (iii) estimating the consequences of each accident. Specifically the study focused on evaluating the risks associated with dissembling a hazardous assembly. The PRA for the operation included a detailed evaluation only for those potential accident sequences which could lead to significant off-site consequences and affect public health. The overall purpose of this study was to investigate the feasibility of establishing a risk-consequence goal for DOE operations.

  13. Risk assessment of topically applied products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søborg, Tue; Basse, Line Hollesen; Halling-Sørensen, Bent

    2007-01-01

    The human risk of harmful substances in semisolid topical dosage forms applied topically to normal skin and broken skin, respectively, was assessed. Bisphenol A diglycidyl ether (BADGE) and three derivatives of BADGE previously quantified in aqueous cream and the UV filters 3-BC and 4-MBC were used...... as model compounds. Tolerable daily intake (TDI) values have been established for BADGE and derivatives. Endocrine disruption was chosen as endpoint for 3-BC and 4-MBC. Skin permeation of the model compounds was investigated in vitro using pig skin membranes. Tape stripping was applied to simulate broken...... parameters for estimating the risk. The immediate human risk of BADGE and derivatives in topical dosage forms was found to be low. However, local treatment of broken skin may lead to higher exposure of BADGE and derivatives compared to application to normal skin. 3-BC permeated skin at higher flux than 4-MBC...

  14. The Chornobyl accident: A comprehensive risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vargo, G.J. [ed.; Poyarkov, V.; Bar`yakhtar, V.; Kukhar, V.; Los, I.; Kholosha, V.; Shestopalov, V.

    1999-10-01

    The authors, all of whom are Ukrainian and Russian scientists involved with Chornobyl nuclear power plant since the April 1986 accident, present a comprehensive review of the accident. In addition, they present a risk assessment of the remains of the destroyed reactor and its surrounding shelter, Chornobyl radioactive waste storage and disposal sites, and environmental contamination in the region. The authors explore such questions as the risks posed by a collapse of the shelter, radionuclide migration from storage and disposal facilities in the exclusion zone, and transfer from soil to vegetation and its potential regional impact. The answers to these questions provide a scientific basis for the development of countermeasures against the Chornobyl accident in particular and the mitigation of environmental radioactive contamination in general. They also provide an important basis for understanding the human health and ecological risks posed by the accident.

  15. Risk assessment meta tool LDRD final report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bouchard, Ann Marie; Osbourn, Gordon Cecil

    2006-12-01

    The goal of this project was to develop a risk analysis meta tool--a tool that enables security analysts both to combine and analyze data from multiple other risk assessment tools on demand. Our approach was based on the innovative self-assembling software technology under development by the project team. This technology provides a mechanism for the user to specify his intentions at a very high level (e.g., equations or English-like text), and then the code self-assembles itself, taking care of the implementation details. The first version of the meta tool focused specifically in importing and analyzing data from Joint Conflict and Tactical Simulation (JCATS) force-on-force simulation. We discuss the problem, our approach, technical risk, and accomplishments on this project, and outline next steps to be addressed with follow-on funding.

  16. [Risk of laparoscopic surgery. 100 records of complications. A qualitative study].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hureau, J; Vayre, P; Chapuis, Y; Germain, M A; Jost, J L; Murat, J; Spay, G

    1996-01-01

    A total of 100 accidents occurring during laparoscopic surgery between 1969 and 1993 were studied. Fifty-five of the cases concerned gynaecology surgery over a 24 year period. The other 45 concerned digestive surgery over a 5 year period (1989-1993). The surgical risk was not statistically greater compared with open surgery. Overall morbidity was 1%. Overall mortality was 0.5/1000. A more precise statistical analysis was recently reported. The examination of the 100 cases was qualitative rather than quantitative. The study demonstrated an imbalance between age (mean age 38 years) in patients with major pathology initially and the gravity of the induced accidents: 26 deaths for 100 observations. These deaths were related to technology trocar, capnoperitoneum, electrocoagulation. Technical skill, cautiousness, vigilance and humility are qualities the surgeon must have to perform successful operations. The irreversible acceleration of the new surgical technique should not cloud the basic precepts of sound surgical technique.

  17. Interactive decision support for risk management: a qualitative evaluation in cancer genetic counselling sessions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glasspool, David W; Oettinger, Ayelet; Braithwaite, Dejana; Fox, John

    2010-09-01

    Genetic counselling for inherited susceptibility to cancer involves communication of a significant amount of information about possible consequences of different interventions. This study explores counsellors' attitudes to computer software designed to aid this process. Eight genetic counsellors used the software with actors playing patients. Clinicians' rating of expected patient satisfaction, content, accuracy, timeliness, format, overall value, ease of use, effect on the patient-provider relationship and effect on clinician's performance were evaluated via qualitative and quantitative analysis of interviews, training tasks and questionnaires. Most counsellors found the software effective. Concerns related to possible impact on consultation dynamics and content. Participants suggested countering these through appropriate new counselling skills and selective use of the computer. The REACT software could provide effective support for genetic risk management counselling.

  18. Depression in primary care: assessing suicide risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Chung Wai Mark; How, Choon How; Ng, Yin Ping

    2017-01-01

    Major depression is a common condition seen in the primary care setting. This article describes the suicide risk assessment of a depressed patient, including practical aspects of history-taking, consideration of factors in deciding if a patient requires immediate transfer for inpatient care and measures to be taken if the patient is not hospitalised. It follows on our earlier article about the approach to management of depression in primary care. PMID:28210741

  19. Risk assessment of tailings facility dam failure

    OpenAIRE

    Hadzi-Nikolova, Marija; Mirakovski, Dejan; Stefanova, Violeta

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the consequences of tailings facility dam failure and therefore the needs for its risk assessment. Tailings are fine-grained wastes of the mining industry, output as slurries, due to mixing with water during mineral processing. Tailings dams vary a lot as it is affected by: tailings characteristics and mill output, site characteristics as: topography, hydrology, geology, groundwater, seismicity and available material and disposal methods. The talings which accumulat...

  20. Moving Forward in Human Cancer Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Paules, Richard S.; Aubrecht, Jiri; Corvi, Raffaella; Garthoff, Bernward; Kleinjans, Jos C.

    2010-01-01

    Background The current safety paradigm for assessing carcinogenic properties of drugs, cosmetics, industrial chemicals, and environmental exposures relies mainly on in vitro genotoxicity testing followed by 2-year rodent bioassays. This testing battery is extremely sensitive but has low specificity. Furthermore, rodent bioassays are associated with high costs, high animal burden, and limited predictive value for human risks. Objectives We provide a response to a growing appeal for a paradigm ...

  1. Gender, risk assessment, and political ambition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweet-Cushman, Jennie

    2016-01-01

    In the United States, women have long held the right to vote and can participate fully in the political process, and yet they are underrepresented at all levels of elected office. Worldwide, men's dominance in the realm of politics has also been the norm. To date, scholars have focused on supply-side and demand-side explanations of women's underrepresentation but differences in how men and women assess electoral risk (the risk involved in seeking political office) are not fully explained. To fill this gap, I explore how evolutionary theory offers insights into gendered differences in political ambition and the evaluation of electoral risk. Using the framework of life-history theory, I hypothesize that both cognitive and environmental factors in human evolution, particularly as they relate to sexual selection and social roles, have shaped the psychology of ambition in gendered ways affecting contemporary politics. Cognitive risk-assessment mechanisms evolving in the hominid line came to be expressed differently in females and males, in women and men. These gendered expressions plausibly reflect differentiable environmental pressures in the past and may help explain behaviors in and barriers to women's electoral political activity in the present. If so, then the success of efforts to increase such activity - or, regressively, to suppress it - may be better understood.

  2. Natural-technological risk assessment and management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burova, Valentina; Frolova, Nina

    2016-04-01

    EM-DAT statistical data on human impact and economic damages in the 1st semester 2015 are the highest since 2011: 41% of disasters were floods, responsible for 39% of economic damage and 7% of events were earthquakes responsible for 59% of total death toll. This suggests that disaster risk assessment and management still need to be improved and stay the principle issue in national and international related programs. The paper investigates the risk assessment and management practice in the Russian Federation at different levels. The method is proposed to identify the territories characterized by integrated natural-technological hazard. The maps of the Russian Federation zoning according to the integrated natural-technological hazard level are presented, as well as the procedure of updating the integrated hazard level taking into account the activity of separate processes. Special attention is paid to data bases on past natural and technological processes consequences, which are used for verification of current hazard estimation. The examples of natural-technological risk zoning for the country and some regions territory are presented. Different output risk indexes: both social and economic, are estimated taking into account requirements of end-users. In order to increase the safety of population of the Russian Federation the trans-boundaries hazards are also taken into account.

  3. Selection of Dispersivity in Groundwater Risk Assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    武晓峰; 唐杰

    2004-01-01

    The Domenico model is used in combination with ASTM E 1739 in a Tier 2 risk assessment of chlorinated organic solvents contaminated groundwater sites to predict potential contaminant concentration in groundwater down-gradient from the point of exposure (POE). A knowledge of the dispersivity parameters is necessary for carrying out this calculation. A constant longitudinal dispersivity of 10 m is often used in analytical and numerical calculation. However, because of the scale effect of dispersion, two other main approaches are currently often used. From the viewpoint of conservative principle in risk assessment, it is necessary to determine which dispersivity data will give a higher predicted concentration, corresponding to a more conservative risk calculation. Generally, it is considered that a smaller dispersivity leads to a higher predicted concentration. This assumption is correct when dispersion is the only natural attenuation factor. However, degradation of commonly encountered chlorinated organic solvents in environment under natural condition has been widely reported. Calculations given in this paper of several representative cases show that a general consideration of the influence of dispersivity on concentration prediction is not always correct when a degradation term is included in the calculation. To give a conservative risk calculation, the scale effect of dispersion is considered. Calculations also show that the dispersivity parameters need to be determined by considering the POE distance from the source, the groundwater velocity, and the degradation rate of the contaminant.

  4. Weighted normalized risk factor for floods risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashraf Mohamed Elmoustafa

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA describes any structured approach used to determine overall preferences among alternative options, where options accomplish certain or several objectives. The flood protection of properties is a highly important issue due to the damage, danger and other hazards associated to it to human life, properties, and environment. To determine the priority of execution of protection works for any project, many aspects should be considered in order to decide the areas to start the data collection and analysis with. Multi criteria analysis techniques were tested and evaluated for the purpose of flood risk assessment, hydro-morphological parameters were used in this analysis. Finally a suitable technique was chosen and tested to be adopted as a mark of flood risk level and results were presented.

  5. Robotic Mars Sample Return: Risk Assessment and Analysis Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lalk, Thomas R.; Spence, Cliff A.

    2003-01-01

    A comparison of the risk associated with two alternative scenarios for a robotic Mars sample return mission was conducted. Two alternative mission scenarios were identified, the Jet Propulsion Lab (JPL) reference Mission and a mission proposed by Johnson Space Center (JSC). The JPL mission was characterized by two landers and an orbiter, and a Mars orbit rendezvous to retrieve the samples. The JSC mission (Direct/SEP) involves a solar electric propulsion (SEP) return to earth followed by a rendezvous with the space shuttle in earth orbit. A qualitative risk assessment to identify and characterize the risks, and a risk analysis to quantify the risks were conducted on these missions. Technical descriptions of the competing scenarios were developed in conjunction with NASA engineers and the sequence of events for each candidate mission was developed. Risk distributions associated with individual and combinations of events were consolidated using event tree analysis in conjunction with Monte Carlo techniques to develop probabilities of mission success for each of the various alternatives. The results were the probability of success of various end states for each candidate scenario. These end states ranged from complete success through various levels of partial success to complete failure. Overall probability of success for the Direct/SEP mission was determined to be 66% for the return of at least one sample and 58% for the JPL mission for the return of at least one sample cache. Values were also determined for intermediate events and end states as well as for the probability of violation of planetary protection. Overall mission planetary protection event probabilities of occurrence were determined to be 0.002% and 1.3% for the Direct/SEP and JPL Reference missions respectively.

  6. Assessment of uncertainties in risk analysis of chemical establishments. The ASSURANCE project. Final summary report

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauridsen, K.; Kozine, Igor; Markert, Frank;

    2002-01-01

    This report summarises the results obtained in the ASSURANCE project (EU contract number ENV4-CT97-0627). Seven teams have performed risk analyses for the same chemical facility, an ammonia storage. The EC's Joint Research Centre at Ispra and RisøNational Laboratory co-ordinated the exercise...... on the ranking among the adherents of the probabilistic approach. Breaking down the modelling of both frequencyand consequence assessments into suitably small elements and conducting case studies allowed identifying root causes of uncertainty in the final risk assessments. Large differences were found in both...... the frequency assessments and in the assessment ofconsequences. The report gives a qualitative assessment of the importance to the final calculated risk of uncertainties in assumptions made, in the data and the calculation methods used. This assessment can serve as a guide to areas where, in particular...

  7. Endocrine disrupting pesticides: implications for risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinlay, R; Plant, J A; Bell, J N B; Voulvoulis, N

    2008-02-01

    Endocrine disrupting (ED) chemicals are compounds that alter the normal functioning of the endocrine system, potentially causing disease or deformity in organisms and their offspring. Pesticides are used widely to kill unwanted organisms in crops, public areas, homes and gardens and medicinally to kill parasites. Many are proven or suspected to be EDs. Ancient physiological similarities between different vertebrate groups suggest that disorders observed in wildlife may indicate risks to humans. This makes accurate risk assessment and effective legislation difficult. In this paper, the hazardous properties of pesticides which are known to have ED properties are reviewed in order to assess the implications for risk assessment. As well as data on sources of exposure in the United Kingdom (UK) an assessment of the evidence on the health effects of ED pesticides is also included. In total, 127 have been identified from the literature and their effects and modes of action are listed in this paper. Using the UK as a case study, the types and quantities of pesticides used, and their methods of application are assessed, along with their potential pathways to humans. In the UK reliable data are available only for agricultural use, so non-agricultural routes of pesticide exposure have been poorly quantified. The exposure of people resident in or visiting rural areas could also have been grossly under-estimated. Material links between ED pesticide use and specific illnesses or deformities are complicated by the multifactorial nature of disease, which can be affected by factors such as diet. Despite these difficulties, a large body of evidence has accumulated linking specific conditions to ED pesticides in wildlife and humans. A more precautionary approach to the use of ED pesticides, especially for non-essential purposes is proposed.

  8. Students' and teachers' perceptions of clinical assessment program: A qualitative study in a PBL curriculum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    van der Vleuten Cees

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background "Examinations drive students' learning." This statement refers to what is assumed to be one of the strongest relationships in education. We explored in this research how and why students differ in their approaches to learning, how assessment affects deep learning, and which barriers stand in the way of good assessment and learning in the clinical years of a Problem Based Learning (PBL graduate entry medical curriculum. Findings Method: We conducted a qualitative, phenomenological study using semi-structured group interviews with students and semi-structured individual interviews with teachers and students. The transcripts were analyzed, and themes were identified. Setting: The research was conducted at the King Saud bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences, College of Medicine, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia from November 2007 to March 2008. Results: A total of 28 students participated in 7 focus group interviews. Semi-structured individual interviews were conducted with 12 teachers and 12 students. The analysis yielded four themes: summative assessment, formative assessment, continuous assessment of clinical attachments, and learning objectives. Conclusions The results of this study confirm that assessment affects students' perceptions of learning and how they learn. These effects are not uniformly positive. According to the students, the predominantly summative assessment program offers little inducement to engage in deep learning. They express a clear preference for formative assessment, which may foster a deeper approach to learning. Efforts to achieve more clinically relevant assessment with adequate balance between the various types of assessment are required. Research is needed to decide this balance.

  9. Ordinary risks and accepted fictions: how contrasting and competing priorities work in risk assessment and mental health care planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coffey, Michael; Cohen, Rachel; Faulkner, Alison; Hannigan, Ben; Simpson, Alan; Barlow, Sally

    2017-06-01

    Communication and information sharing are considered crucial to recovery-focused mental health services. Effective mental health care planning and coordination includes assessment and management of risk and safety. Using data from our cross-national mixed-method study of care planning and coordination, we examined what patients, family members and workers say about risk assessment and management and explored the contents of care plans. Thematic analysis of qualitative research interviews (n = 117) with patients, family members and workers, across four English and two Welsh National Health Service sites. Care plans were reviewed (n = 33) using a structured template. Participants have contrasting priorities in relation to risk. Patients see benefit in discussions about risk, but cast the process as a worker priority that may lead to loss of liberty. Relationships with workers are key to family members and patients; however, worker claims of involving people in the care planning process do not extend to risk assessment and management procedures for fear of causing upset. Workers locate risk as coming from the person rather than social or environmental factors, are risk averse and appear to prioritize the procedural aspects of assessment. Despite limitations, risk assessment is treated as legitimate work by professionals. Risk assessment practice operates as a type of fiction in which poor predictive ability and fear of consequences are accepted in the interests of normative certainty by all parties. As a consequence, risk adverse options are encouraged by workers and patients steered away from opportunities for ordinary risks thereby hindering the mobilization of their strengths and abilities. © 2016 The Authors. Health Expectations Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. "I take what I think works for me": a qualitative study to explore patient perception of diabetes treatment benefits and risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nair, Kalpana M; Levine, Mitchel A H; Lohfeld, Lynne H; Gerstein, Hertzel C

    2007-01-01

    Diabetes is impacting more and more people each year. A key aspect of disease management is patient adherence to prescribed treatments. Treatment adherence is influenced by many factors, including the understanding of a treatment's benefits and risks. This study sought to describe the experience of benefit and risk assessment for people with type 2 diabetes when making treatment decisions. This study utilized qualitative research methods. Individual interviews were conducted using a semi-structured interview guide. Both purposeful and theoretical sampling was used. A grounded theory approach was employed to facilitate data collection and analysis. The 18 study participants were on varying treatment regimens for diabetes (diet therapy, oral medications, and insulin). Many people felt that they had not received enough information about the benefits and risks of treatment at the point of decision-making and later sought this information on their own. Participants did not seem to consciously assess treatment benefits and risks when treatments were prescribed or suggested, but rather continued to make decisions after the clinical encounter by means of experimentation or experience with treatments. In general, benefits and risks were conceptualized very broadly, and some people were not able to verbally articulate their perceptions of treatment benefits and risks. Patients' assessment of treatment benefits and risks is an ongoing, often unconscious process that requires continuous interaction with the health care system. Access to information and an opportunity to discuss treatment options with health care providers are important to people with diabetes when making treatment decisions.

  11. 77 FR 26292 - Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-03

    ... Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals Related to Knowledge.'' The... an issue paper entitled ``Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science...' knowledge about drugs' risks; (2) share current FDA experience regarding social science assessments...

  12. Strategic design assessment of a hotel company through qualitative and quantitative indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dinaidys Gómez-Selemeneva

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The strategic design process and subsequent evaluation of results and their feedback and control are key moments in the management of an organization. This is therefore a topic of great relevance today in all publications in this subject area, especially empirical studies that provide both quantitative and qualitative information on the performance of companies in dynamic sectors such as tourism. That is why this article focuses on assessing the effectiveness of different strategies: generic, growth and diversification of a hotel company in the Caribbean area through the financial performance indicators and other qualitative. Results presented correspond to 100% of the study population, all of which made possible the information needed to detect major deviations from the strategic approach and possible alternatives for improving the performance and future competitiveness of the different facilities hotel. So empirical research of a tourist destination in growth and consolidation, as well as also a generalizable methodology for diagnosis and strategic design of organizations is provided.

  13. HESI pilot project: Testing a qualitative approach for incorporating exposure into alternatives assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Greggs, Bill; Arnold, Scott; Burns, Thomas J.;

    Committee, which consists of scientists from academia, industry, government, and NGOs, has developed a qualitative comparative exposure approach. Conducting such a comparison can screen for alternatives that are expected to have a higher exposure potential, which could trigger a higher-tiered, more-quantitative...... exposure assessment on the alternatives being considered. This talk will demonstrate an approach for including chemical and product exposure information in a qualitative AA comparison. Starting from existing hazard AAs, a series of four exposure examples were examined to test the concept, to understand...... the effort required, and to determine the value of exposure data in AA decision-making. The group has developed ingredient and product parameter categorization to support comparisons between chemicals and methodology to address data quality. The ingredient parameters include a range of physicochemical...

  14. Risk assessment methodology for the forniture industrial sector

    OpenAIRE

    Rodrigues, Matilde A.

    2014-01-01

    Companies need to constantly make decisions about risk. They need to decide if a certain risk level is low enough or if some measures for its reduction are still needed. In this regard, risk assessment appears as a basis for the decision-making about risks. However, risk acceptance is an important issue related to the risk assessment process, which may put into question its appropriateness. Despite the importance of risk acceptance, this subject is insufficiently discussed in the literature r...

  15. A new fuzzy-dynamic risk and reliability assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Majid Vaziri Sarashk

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to consider system safety and reliability analysts to evaluate the risk associated with item failure modes. The factors considered in traditional failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA for risk assessment are frequency of occurrence (O, severity (S and detectability (D of an item failure mode. Because of the subjective, qualitative and dynamic nature of the information and to make the analysis more consistent and logical, an approach using fuzzy logic and system dynamics methodology is proposed. In the proposed approach, severity is replaced by dependency parameter then, these parameters are represented as members of a fuzzy set fuzzified by using appropriate membership functions and they are evaluated in fuzzy inference engine, which makes use of well-defined rule base and fuzzy logic operations to determine the value of parameters related to system’s transfer functions. The fuzzy conclusion is then defuzzified to get transfer function for risk and failure rate. The applicability of the proposed approach is investigated with the help of an illustrative case study from the automotive industry.

  16. Visual Impairment/Intracranial Pressure Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fogarty, Jennifer A.; Durham, T.; Otto, C.; Grounds, D.; Davis, J. R.

    2010-01-01

    Since 2006 there have been 6 reported cases of altered visual acuity and intracranial pressure (ICP) in long duration astronauts. In order to document this risk and develop an integrated approach to its mitigation, the NASA Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) and Human Research Program (HRP) have chosen to use the Human System Risk Board (HSRB) and the risk management analysis tool (RMAT). The HSRB is the venue in which the stakeholders and customers discuss and vet the evidence and the RMAT is the tool that facilitates documentation and comparison of the evidence across mission profiles as well as identification of risk factors, and documentation of mitigation strategies. This process allows for information to be brought forward and dispositioned so that it may be properly incorporated into the RMAT and contribute to the design of the research and mitigation plans. The evidence thus far has resulted in the identification of a visual impairment/intracranial pressure (VIIP) project team, updating of both short and long duration medical requirements designed to assess visual acuity, and a research plan to characterize this issue further. In order to understand this issue more completely, a plan to develop an Accelerated Research Collaboration (ARC) has been approved by the HSRB. The ARC is a novel research model pioneered by the Myelin Repair Foundation. It is a patient centered research model that brings together researchers and clinicians, under the guidance of a scientific advisory panel, to collaborate and produce results much quickly than accomplished through traditional research models. The data and evidence from the updated medical requirements and the VIIP ARC will be reviewed at the HSRB on a regular basis. Each review package presented to the HSRB will include an assessment and recommendation with respect to continuation of research, countermeasure development, occupational surveillance modalities, selection criteria, etc. This process will determine the

  17. Definition of a shortcut methodology for assessing flood-related Na-Tech risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Marzo

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper a qualitative methodology for the initial assessment of flood-related Na-Tech risk was developed as a screening tool to identify which situations require a much more expensive quantitative risk analysis (QRA. Through the definition of some suitable key hazard indicators (KHIs, the proposed methodology allows the identification of the Na-Tech risk level associated with a given situation; the analytical hierarchy process (AHP was used as a multi-criteria decision tool for the evaluation of such qualitative KHIs. The developed methodology was validated through two case studies by comparing the predicted risk levels with the results of much more detailed QRAs previously presented in literature and then applied to the real flood happened at Spolana a.s., Neratovice, Czech Republic in August 2002.

  18. Exposure method development for risk assessment to cosmetic products using a standard composition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chevillotte, G; Ficheux, A S; Morisset, T; Roudot, A C

    2014-06-01

    In a risk assessment of cosmetic products, it is necessary to know both qualitative and quantitative compositions. Currently, European Regulation No. 1223/2009 requires the industries to provide ingredient lists for finished cosmetic products but not their concentrations. Ingredient concentrations are available in few bibliographic references but in an incomplete and approximate way. In this study, we propose a method to qualitatively and quantitatively estimate the composition of a cosmetic product. This method has the advantages of being applicable to all cosmetic products and supplying concentration data for all ingredients. The results obtained seem quite fair compared to literature data. Applied to nail polish as an example, this method can be used to assess exposure per ingredient according to the Monte Carlo probabilistic method. It should be promising to assess the consumer risk to cosmetic product compositions.

  19. Risk-Based Assessment of Structural Robustness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oana-Mihaela Ioniţă

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Providing safety of structures is one of the main aims of design. In traditional design it is achieved by designing structural components against specified limit states. However, as showed the Ronan Point collapse in UK in 1968, when a gas explosion in one of flats on the 18-th floor of the residential building caused the failure of an entire section of the building, this approach is not sufficient. The approach does not exclude the risk of local damage to a structure due to accidental events that can occur during service life of the structure. While probability of occurrence of such events for ordinary structures is low, and, therefore, they are not considered explicitly in design, their effect on structural safety becomes significant if the structure is not robust, that is when some local damage can trigger a chain reaction of failures causing collapse of the whole structure or of a major part of it, the so called progressive collapse. The purpose of this paper is to outline the basic premises for the utilization of risk assessment in evaluating the robustness of structures. In the following the robustness assessment is understood as a process of decision making based on risks.

  20. Risk assessment of poultry sloughterhouses in Albania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ROVENA JAHELEZI

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to assess the risk of poultry slaughterhouses in order to achieve a better official inspection. Study is taking place in 5 poultry slaughterhouses in Albania. The study was conducted through two tasks: poultry slaughterhouses classification related to the risk assessment based on the characteristics of the plant, product characteristics, production, hygiene processes, HACCP, and on the identification of presence of Salmonella spp in the slaughterhouse environment and in the final product. In every slaughterhouse, inspections are performed every 3 months, by completing the appropriate checklist using point’s evaluation. The results show that 5 slaughterhouses resulted in high risk (over 42 points. The detection of Salmonella spp in poultry carcasses is based on ISO 6579: 2002 method. 25 meat samples were analyzed in total where, out of which only one sample resulted with the presence of Salmonella spp in 25 gr. These results are due to an inappropriate Hygienic Practice, Manufacturing Practice and show that HACCP isnotimplementedrigorously.

  1. Spent Nuclear Fuel Alternative Technology Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perella, V.F.

    1999-11-29

    A Research Reactor Spent Nuclear Fuel Task Team (RRTT) was chartered by the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Spent Fuel Management with the responsibility to recommend a course of action leading to a final technology selection for the interim management and ultimate disposition of the foreign and domestic aluminum-based research reactor spent nuclear fuel (SNF) under DOE''s jurisdiction. The RRTT evaluated eleven potential SNF management technologies and recommended that two technologies, direct co-disposal and an isotopic dilution alternative, either press and dilute or melt and dilute, be developed in parallel. Based upon that recommendation, the Westinghouse Savannah River Company (WSRC) organized the SNF Alternative Technology Program to further develop the direct co-disposal and melt and dilute technologies and provide a WSRC recommendation to DOE for a preferred SNF alternative management technology. A technology risk assessment was conducted as a first step in this recommendation process to determine if either, or both, of the technologies posed significant risks that would make them unsuitable for further development. This report provides the results of that technology risk assessment.

  2. Clinical responsibility, accountability, and risk aversion in mental health nursing: a descriptive, qualitative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manuel, Jenni; Crowe, Marie

    2014-08-01

    A number of recent, highly-publicized, perceived health-care service failures have raised concerns about health professionals' accountabilities. Relevant to these concerns, the present study sought to examine how mental health nurses understood clinical responsibility and its impact on their practice. A descriptive, qualitative design was used, and a convenience sample of 10 mental health nurses was recruited from specialist inpatient and outpatient mental health settings in Canterbury, New Zealand. Data were collected using semistructured interviews, and the transcriptions were analysed using an inductive, descriptive approach. Three major themes were identified: being accountable, fostering patient responsibility, and shifting responsibility. Being accountable involved weighing up patients' therapeutic needs against the potential for blame in an organizational culture of risk management. Fostering patient responsibility described the process of deciding in what situations patients could take responsibility for their behaviour. Shifting responsibility described the culture of defensive practice fostered by the organizational culture of risk aversion. The present study highlighted the challenges mental health nurses experience in relation to clinical responsibility in practice, including the balancing required between the needs of patients, the needs of the organization, and the perceived need for self-protection. © 2014 Australian College of Mental Health Nurses Inc.

  3. Relationships Between Animal Health Monitoring and the Risk Assessment Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salman MD

    2001-03-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is part of the risk analysis process as it is used in veterinary medicine to estimate risks related to international trade and food safety. Data from monitoring and surveillance systems (MO&SS are used throughout the risk assessment process for hazard identification, release assessment, exposure assessment and consequence assessment. As the quality of risk assessments depends to a large extent on the availability and quality of input data, there is a close relationship between MO&SS and risk assessment. In order to improve the quality of risk assessments, MO&SS should be designed according to minimum quality standards. Second, recent scientific developments on state-of-the-art design and analysis of surveys need to be translated into field applications and legislation. Finally, knowledge about the risk assessment process among MO&SS planners and managers should be promoted in order to assure high-quality data.

  4. Self-assessment and students’ study strategies in a community of clinical practice: A qualitative study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanan M. Al-Kadri

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available : Self-assessment is recognized as a necessary skill for lifelong learning. It is widely reported to offer numerous advantages to the learner. The research evaluated the impact of students’ and supervisors’ self-assessment and feedback training on students’ perceptions and practices of self-assessment. Moreover, it evaluated the effect of self-assessment process on students’ study strategies within a community of clinical practice.: We conducted a qualitative phenomenological study from May 2008 to December 2009. We held 37 semi-structured individual interviews with three different cohorts of undergraduate medical students until we reached data saturation. The cohorts were exposed to different contexts while experiencing their clinical years’ assessment program. In the interviews, students’ perceptions and interpretations of ‘self-assessment practice’ and ‘supervisor-provided feedback’ within different contexts and the resulting study strategies were explored.: The analysis of interview data with the three cohorts of students yielded three major themes: strategic practice of self-assessment, self-assessment and study strategies, and feedback and study strategies. It appears that self-assessment is not appropriate within a summative context, and its implementation requires cultural preparation. Despite education and orientation on the two major components of the self-assessment process, feedback was more effective in enhancing deeper study strategies.: This research suggests that the theoretical advantages linked to the self-assessment process are a result of its feedback component rather than the practice of self-assessment isolated from feedback. Further research exploring the effects of different contextual and personal factors on students’ self-assessment is needed.

  5. Harmonization of international risk assessment protocol

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Toyofuku, Hajime [Food Safety Department, WHO, Geneva (Switzerland)]. E-mail toyofuku@nihs.go.jp

    2006-07-01

    For over centuries developments in food production and new food safety management systems in most developed countries have been perceived by many to be efficient in the prevention of food-borne disease. Nevertheless a number of problems remain dominant, one of these being the high level of food-borne microbiological disease which seems, for some pathogens, to have increased over the last decades. The development of an interdisciplinary approach with direct interaction between surveillance and risk analysis systems is described as a potential basis for improved prevention of food-borne disease. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment is a relatively new scientific approach, able to link data from food within the entire food chain and the various data on human disease to provide a clear estimation of risk. Today food safety is one of the WHOs top eleven priorities; the Organization calls for more systematic and aggressive steps to be taken to reduce significantly the risk of microbiological food-borne diseases. Dealing with this challenge is one of the major challenges for the 21st century in regard to food safety, implying a significant re-direction of food microbiology efforts in many parts of the world.

  6. Risk Assessment in Advanced Engineering Design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Holický

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Traditional methods for designing of civil engineering structures and other engineering systems are frequently based on the concept of target probability of failure. However, this fundamental quantity is usually specified on the basis of comparative studies and past experience only. Moreover, probabilistic design methods suffer from several deficiencies, including lack of consideration for accidental and other hazard situations and their consequences. Both of these extreme conditions are more and more frequently becoming causes of serious failures and other adverse events. Available experience clearly indicates that probabilistic design procedures may be efficiently supplemented by a risk analysis and assessment, which can take into account various consequences of unfavourable events. It is therefore anticipated that in addition to traditional probabilistic concepts the methods of advanced engineering design will also commonly include criteria for acceptable risks.

  7. Flood risk assessment: concepts, modelling, applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Tsakiris

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Natural hazards have caused severe consequences to the natural, modified and human systems, in the past. These consequences seem to increase with time due to both higher intensity of the natural phenomena and higher value of elements at risk. Among the water related hazards flood hazards have the most destructive impacts. The paper presents a new systemic paradigm for the assessment of flood hazard and flood risk in the riverine flood prone areas. Special emphasis is given to the urban areas with mild terrain and complicated topography, in which 2-D fully dynamic flood modelling is proposed. Further the EU flood directive is critically reviewed and examples of its implementation are presented. Some critical points in the flood directive implementation are also highlighted.

  8. Risk assessment of soybean-based phytoestrogens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwack, Seung Jun; Kim, Kyu-Bong; Kim, Hyung Sik; Yoon, Kyung Sil; Lee, Byung Mu

    2009-01-01

    Koreans generally consume high quantities of soybean-based foods that contain a variety of phytoestrogens, such as, daidzein, zenistein, and biochalin A. However, phytoestrogens are considered to be potential endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDC), which interfere with the normal function of the hormonal and reproductive systems. Therefore, dietary exposure to soybean-based phytoestrogens is of concern for Koreans, and comparative dietary risk assessments are required between Japanese (high consumers) versus Americans (low consumers). In this study, a relative risk assessment was conducted based upon daily intake levels of soybean-based foods and phytoestrogens in a Korean cohort, and the risks of photoestrogens were compared with those posed by estradiol and other EDC. Koreans approximately 30-49 yr of age consume on average a total of 135.2 g/d of soy-based foods including soybean, soybean sauce, soybean paste, and soybean oil, and 0.51 mg/kg body weight (bw)/d of phytoestrogens such as daidzein and genistein. Using estimated daily intakes (EDI) and estrogenic potencies (EP), margins of safety (MOS) were calculated where 0.05 is for estradiol (MOS value estrogenic effect); thus, MOS values of 1.89 for Japanese, 1.96 for Koreans, and 5.55 for Americans indicate that consumption of soybean-based foods exerted no apparent estrogenic effects, as all MOS values were all higher than 1. For other synthetic EDC used as reference values, MOS values were dieldrin 27, nonylphenol 250, butyl benzyl phthalate 321, bisphenol A 1000, biochanin A 2203, and coumesterol 2898. These results suggest that dietary exposure to phytoestrogens, such as daidzein and genistein, poses a relatively higher health risk for humans than synthetic EDC, although MOS values were all greater than 1.

  9. Landslide susceptibility and risk assessment: specificities for road networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pellicani, Roberta; Argentiero, Ilenia; Parisi, Alessandro; Spilotro, Giuseppe

    2017-04-01

    A regional-scale assessment of landslide susceptibility and risk along the main road corridors crossing the provincial territory of Matera (Basilicata Region, Southern Italy) was carried out. The entire provincial road network extends for about 1,320 km through a territory, of which represents the main connection infrastructure among thirty-one municipalities due to the lack of an efficient integrated transportation system through the whole regional territory. For this reason, the strategic importance of these roads consists in their uniqueness in connecting every urban center with the socio-economic surrounding context. These roads and their vehicular traffic are continuously exposed to instability processes (about the 40% of the total length is disrupted by landslides), characterized both by high intensity and low frequency and by low intensity and high frequency. This last typology, consisting in small shallow landslides, is particularly hazardous for the roads since it is widespread along the road network, its occurrence is connected to rainfalls and determines high vulnerability conditions for the road in terms of interruption of vehicular traffic. A GIS-based heuristic-bivariate statistical predictive model was performed to assess and map the landslide susceptibility in the study area, by using a polynomial function of eight predisposing factors, weighted according to their influence on the landslide phenomena, recognized and collected in an inventory. Susceptibility associated to small shallow phenomena was assessed by using a polynomial function of specific factors, such as slope angle and aspect, lithological outcrops, rainfalls, etc. In absence of detailed input data, the spatial distribution of landslide risk along the road corridors was assessed and mapped using a qualitative hazard-consequence matrix approach, by which risk is obtained by combining hazard categories with consequence classes pairwise in a two-dimensional table or matrix. Landslide

  10. Qualitative and quantitative composition of essential oils: A literature-based database on contact allergens used for safety assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dornic, N; Ficheux, A S; Roudot, A C

    2016-10-01

    The risks related to the use of essential oils are difficult to ascertain at present, due in part to the large number of different oils available on the market, making it difficult for the risk assessor. Essential oils may contain skin allergens in significant amounts, and could thus pose a risk to the consumer. The aim of our study was to collect as much qualitative and quantitative data as possible on allergens present in essential oils. 11 types of essential oils, with 25 respective subspecies, were taken into account based on a previous survey. Based on the literature, 517 dosages were recorded from 112 publications, providing precious information for probabilistic exposure assessment purposes. 22 substances recognized as established allergens were found in the essential oils we included. Of these, 11 are also found in cosmetics as fragrance components. These results are of major importance regarding co-exposure to fragrance allergens. Moreover, this could lead to regulatory measures for essential oils in the future, as it is the case for cosmetic products, in order to better protect consumers against skin allergy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Risk Assessment on Drought Disaster in China Based on Integrative Cloud Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junfei Chen

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This study promotes cloud model for risk assessment of drought disaster. Cloud model is an effective tool in uncertain transforming between qualitative concepts and their quantitative expressions. Cloud is expressed by a concept with three quantitative characteristics of expectation, entropy and hyper entropy and the mapping between qualitative and quantitative is realized. In this study, considering the fuzziness and uncertainty of drought disaster, we established the comprehensive cloudy model based on entropy weight method for evaluating the risk of drought disaster. The disaster-affected rate and disaster-damaged rate are selected as the evaluation indices of drought degree. The model is applied to assess the drought disaster risk in China. The BP neural network, hard division method and integrative cloud model are compared, and the integrative cloud model is shown better for evaluating drought risk. This study shows that risk assessment of drought disaster based on cloud model is feasible and effective and can provide decision-making for the risk assessment of drought disaster.

  12. Qualitative assessment of methane emission inventory from municipal solid waste disposal sites: a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Sunil; Mondal, A. N.; Gaikwad, S. A.; Devotta, Sukumar; Singh, R. N.

    2004-09-01

    In developing countries like India, urban solid waste (SW) generation is increasing enormously and most of the SWs are disposed off by land filling in low-lying areas, resulting into generation of large quantities of biogas. Methane, the major constituent gas is known to cause global warming due to green house gas (GHG) effect. There is a need to study the ever-increasing contribution of SW to the global GHG effect. To assess the impacts, estimation of GHG emission is must and to avoid misguidance by these emission-data, qualitative assessment of the estimated GHG is a must. In this paper, methane emission is estimated for a particular landfill site, using default methodology and modified triangular methodology. Total methane generation is same for both theoretical methodologies, but the modified triangular method has an upper hand as it provides a time-dependent emission profile that reflects the true pattern of the degradation process. To check the quality of calculated emission-data, extensive sampling is carried out for different seasons in a year. Field results show a different trend as compared to theoretical results, this compels for logical thinking. Each methane emission-data is backed up by the uncertainty associated with it, this further strengthens the quality check of these data. Uncertainty calculation is done using Monte Carlo simulation technique, recommended in IPCC Guideline. In the due course of qualitative assessment of methane emission-data, many site-specific sensitive parameters are discovered and are briefly discussed in this paper.

  13. Technical Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment - Analysis Phase: Exposure Characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exposure Characterization is the second major component of the analysis phase of a risk assessment. For a pesticide risk assessment, the exposure characterization describes the potential or actual contact of a pesticide with a plant, animal, or media.

  14. 77 FR 28406 - Spent Fuel Transportation Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-14

    ... COMMISSION Spent Fuel Transportation Risk Assessment AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission. ACTION: Draft... issuing for public comment a draft NUREG, NUREG-2125, ``Spent Fuel Transportation Risk Assessment (SFTRA...): You may access publicly-available documents online in the NRC Library at...

  15. Lipid and Some Other Cardiovascular Risk Factors Assessment in a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Lipid and Some Other Cardiovascular Risk Factors Assessment in a Rural ... of modifiable cardiovascular risk factors (cardiovascular diseases [CVDs]) in ... and risk predictive index were higher in females while triglyceride (TG), high density ...

  16. Preliminary report on hepatic and cardiovascular risk assessment of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Preliminary report on hepatic and cardiovascular risk assessment of ... The triglyceride level, artherogenic and coronary risk index of the mechanics was higher ... risk, mechanics, lipid profile, cardiovascular disease, liver dysfunction, benzene.

  17. Risk assessment of power systems models, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Wenyuan

    2014-01-01

    Risk Assessment of Power Systems addresses the regulations and functions of risk assessment with regard to its relevance in system planning, maintenance, and asset management. Brimming with practical examples, this edition introduces the latest risk information on renewable resources, the smart grid, voltage stability assessment, and fuzzy risk evaluation. It is a comprehensive reference of a highly pertinent topic for engineers, managers, and upper-level students who seek examples of risk theory applications in the workplace.

  18. Interrogating the Generalizability of Portfolio Assessments of Beginning Teachers: A Qualitative Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pamela A. Moss

    2004-07-01

    Full Text Available This qualitative study is intended to illuminate factors that affect the generalizability of portfolio assessments of beginning teachers. By generalizability, we refer here to the extent to which the portfolio assessment supports generalizations from the particular evidence reflected in the portfolio to the conception of competent teaching reflected in the standards on which the assessment is based. Or, more practically, “The key question is, ‘How likely is it that this finding would be reversed or substantially altered if a second, independent assessment of the same kind were made?’” (Cronbach, Linn, Brennan, and Haertel, 1997, p. 1. In addressing this question, we draw on two kinds of evidence that are rarely available: comparisons of two different portfolios completed by the same teacher in the same year and comparisons between a portfolio and a multi-day case study (observation and interview completed shortly after portfolio submission intended to parallel the evidence called for in the portfolio assessment. Our formative goal is to illuminate issues that assessment developers and users can take into account in designing assessment systems and appropriately limiting score interpretations.

  19. Risk Assessment tailored to cryogenics - LINDE approach

    CERN Document Server

    CERN. Geneva

    2016-01-01

    The following Risk Assessment Tools will be presented: **HAZID – Hazard Identification Study** Application: if the process contains new applications or provides new challenges (e.g. plant location) Purpose: Identify hazards such as fire/explosion, toxic impact, occupational hazards etc. and assess adequate preventive / mitigation measures **HAZOP – Hazard and Operability Study** Application: for all Projects Purpose: Detailed review of design reflected in the PID to ensure that adequate safeguards are available for all possible process upsets or maloperations. **HAZAN – Hazard Analysis** Application: for all PFHE (plate-fin heat exchangers), CWHE (coil wound heat exchangers) and straight tube sheet heat exchangers Purpose: detailed analysis of the impact of process upset conditions and start-up / shut down scenarios on the lifetime of the heat exchangers – including definition of additional safeguards, if required. **TQR – Technology Qualification Review** Application: for applications...

  20. ARIES: System for Health effects Assessment in industrial risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rabago, I.; Vidania, R. de; Inmaculada, S.

    1992-07-01

    In this work we present a general description of ARIES*, a tool designed in order to support the assessment of expected health effects derived from an accidental release of toxic compounds. ARIES includes two sequential and complementary steps. The first one (a quantitative phase) is being developed. for inhalation exposures, using numerical models, empirical correlations, physiological parameters and toxicological index, to estimate short term consequences over the exposed population. Next it will be published a new report were It will be described with detail the procedure designed to the quantitative assessment of the exposure. The system starts the assessment process with values of external concentrations which are processed, together with different exposure values (existing for humans and scaled up irom animals), as inputs for different kinds of models. From these, and other physiological values ARIES calculates the inhaled equivalent doses and the expected associated effects as a function of the exposure limes. Once overcome this first step, ARIES is complemented with an additional system that executes the selection of relevant information from toxicological data bases (qualitative phase). The system works , applying a string of filters and searches that displays selected Information, giving an additional support to the assessment. Both steps, just referred, are integrated into a logical informatics support. The informatics code is developed in dbase language even for the design of the procedure as for the mathematical models linked to the system ( extrapolation, dose inhaled models, etc.) to execute the numerical analysis of the assessment. The system has been designed in order to include progressively new chemicals and the improvements obtained in the development of mathematical models related with dose-effect relationships. At this moment, is programmed a first prototype of ARIES that can be executed in PC's and it can run for several products

  1. Avoiding and identifying errors in health technology assessment models: qualitative study and methodological review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chilcott, J; Tappenden, P; Rawdin, A; Johnson, M; Kaltenthaler, E; Paisley, S; Papaioannou, D; Shippam, A

    2010-05-01

    Health policy decisions must be relevant, evidence-based and transparent. Decision-analytic modelling supports this process but its role is reliant on its credibility. Errors in mathematical decision models or simulation exercises are unavoidable but little attention has been paid to processes in model development. Numerous error avoidance/identification strategies could be adopted but it is difficult to evaluate the merits of strategies for improving the credibility of models without first developing an understanding of error types and causes. The study aims to describe the current comprehension of errors in the HTA modelling community and generate a taxonomy of model errors. Four primary objectives are to: (1) describe the current understanding of errors in HTA modelling; (2) understand current processes applied by the technology assessment community for avoiding errors in development, debugging and critically appraising models for errors; (3) use HTA modellers' perceptions of model errors with the wider non-HTA literature to develop a taxonomy of model errors; and (4) explore potential methods and procedures to reduce the occurrence of errors in models. It also describes the model development process as perceived by practitioners working within the HTA community. A methodological review was undertaken using an iterative search methodology. Exploratory searches informed the scope of interviews; later searches focused on issues arising from the interviews. Searches were undertaken in February 2008 and January 2009. In-depth qualitative interviews were performed with 12 HTA modellers from academic and commercial modelling sectors. All qualitative data were analysed using the Framework approach. Descriptive and explanatory accounts were used to interrogate the data within and across themes and subthemes: organisation, roles and communication; the model development process; definition of error; types of model error; strategies for avoiding errors; strategies for

  2. 78 FR 23901 - Interagency Risk Assessment-Listeria monocytogenes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-23

    ... Food Safety and Inspection Service Interagency Risk Assessment--Listeria monocytogenes in Retail... risk assessment (QRA), ``Interagency Risk Assessment--Listeria monocytogenes in Retail Delicatessens... and on the FSIS Web site at http://www.fsis.usda.gov/PDF/Listeria-Transcript_062309.pdf ). II....

  3. Laboratory Biosafety and Biosecurity Risk Assessment Technical Guidance Document

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Astuto-Gribble, Lisa M; Caskey, Susan Adele

    2014-07-01

    The purpose of this document is threefold: 1) to describe the laboratory bio safety and biosecurity risk assessment process and its conceptual framework; 2) provide detailed guidance and suggested methodologies on how to conduct a risk assessment; and 3) present some practical risk assessment process strategies using realistic laboratory scenarios.

  4. 75 FR 70009 - Development of Health Risk Assessment Guidance

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-11-16

    ... HUMAN SERVICES Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Development of Health Risk Assessment Guidance... guidance concerning Health Risk Assessment (HRAs). Section 4103 of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) (Pub. L. 111-148) requires that a health risk assessment be included in the annual wellness visit benefit...

  5. Assessing risk factors for periodontitis using regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lobo Pereira, J. A.; Ferreira, Maria Cristina; Oliveira, Teresa

    2013-10-01

    Multivariate statistical analysis is indispensable to assess the associations and interactions between different factors and the risk of periodontitis. Among others, regression analysis is a statistical technique widely used in healthcare to investigate and model the relationship between variables. In our work we study the impact of socio-demographic, medical and behavioral factors on periodontal health. Using regression, linear and logistic models, we can assess the relevance, as risk factors for periodontitis disease, of the following independent variables (IVs): Age, Gender, Diabetic Status, Education, Smoking status and Plaque Index. The multiple linear regression analysis model was built to evaluate the influence of IVs on mean Attachment Loss (AL). Thus, the regression coefficients along with respective p-values will be obtained as well as the respective p-values from the significance tests. The classification of a case (individual) adopted in the logistic model was the extent of the destruction of periodontal tissues defined by an Attachment Loss greater than or equal to 4 mm in 25% (AL≥4mm/≥25%) of sites surveyed. The association measures include the Odds Ratios together with the correspondent 95% confidence intervals.

  6. Risk Assessment Model for Mobile Malware

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Stanescu

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The mobile technology is considered to be the fastest-developing IT security area. Only in the last year security threats around mobile devices have reached new heights in terms of both quality and quantity. The speed of this development has made possible several types of security attacks that, until recently, were only possible on computers. In terms of the most targeted mobile operating systems, Android continues to be the most vulnerable, although new ways of strengthening its security model were introduced by Google. The aim of this article is to provide a model for assessing the risk of mobile infection with malware, starting from a statistical analysis of the permissions required by each application installed into the mobile system. The software implementation of this model will use the Android operating system and in order to do so, we will start by analyzing its permission-based security architecture. Furthermore, based on statistical data regarding the most dangerous permissions, we build the risk assessment model and, to prove its efficiency, we scan some of the most popular apps and interpret the results. To this end, we offer an overview of the strengths and weaknesses of this permission-based model and we also state a short conclusion regarding model’s efficiency.

  7. Fuzzy hierarchical model for risk assessment principles, concepts, and practical applications

    CERN Document Server

    Chan, Hing Kai

    2013-01-01

    Risk management is often complicated by situational uncertainties and the subjective preferences of decision makers. Fuzzy Hierarchical Model for Risk Assessment introduces a fuzzy-based hierarchical approach to solve risk management problems considering both qualitative and quantitative criteria to tackle imprecise information.   This approach is illustrated through number of case studies using examples from the food, fashion and electronics sectors to cover a range of applications including supply chain management, green product design and green initiatives. These practical examples explore how this method can be adapted and fine tuned to fit other industries as well.   Supported by an extensive literature review, Fuzzy Hierarchical Model for Risk Assessment  comprehensively introduces a new method for project managers across all industries as well as researchers in risk management.

  8. Limitations of the entomological operational risk assessment using probabilistic and deterministic analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schleier, Jerome J; Peterson, Robert K D

    2010-08-01

    The Entomological Operational Risk Assessment (EORA) is used by the U.S. military to estimate risks posed by arthropod-vectored pathogens that produce human diseases. Our analysis demonstrated that the EORA matrix is formatted so that a small change in probability results in a discontinuous jump in risk. In addition, we show the overlap of different risk categories with respect to their probability of occurrence. Our results reveal that the fundamental mathematical problems associated with the EORA process may not provide estimates that are better than random chance. To ameliorate many of the problems associated with the EORA, we suggest more robust methods for performing qualitative and semiquantitative risk assessments when it is difficult to obtain the probability that an adverse event will occur and when the knowledge of experts can aid the process.

  9. Quantitative breast MRI radiomics for cancer risk assessment and the monitoring of high-risk populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendel, Kayla R.; Li, Hui; Giger, Maryellen L.

    2016-03-01

    Breast density is routinely assessed qualitatively in screening mammography. However, it is challenging to quantitatively determine a 3D density from a 2D image such as a mammogram. Furthermore, dynamic contrast enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) is used more frequently in the screening of high-risk populations. The purpose of our study is to segment parenchyma and to quantitatively determine volumetric breast density on pre-contrast axial DCE-MRI images (i.e., non-contrast) using a semi-automated quantitative approach. In this study, we retroactively examined 3D DCE-MRI images taken for breast cancer screening of a high-risk population. We analyzed 66 cases with ages between 28 and 76 (mean 48.8, standard deviation 10.8). DCE-MRIs were obtained on a Philips 3.0 T scanner. Our semi-automated DCE-MRI algorithm includes: (a) segmentation of breast tissue from non-breast tissue using fuzzy cmeans clustering (b) separation of dense and fatty tissues using Otsu's method, and (c) calculation of volumetric density as the ratio of dense voxels to total breast voxels. We examined the relationship between pre-contrast DCE-MRI density and clinical BI-RADS density obtained from radiology reports, and obtained a statistically significant correlation [Spearman ρ-value of 0.66 (p < 0.0001)]. Our method within precision medicine may be useful for monitoring high-risk populations.

  10. Qualitative release assessment to estimate the likelihood of henipavirus entering the United Kingdom.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emma L Snary

    Full Text Available The genus Henipavirus includes Hendra virus (HeV and Nipah virus (NiV, for which fruit bats (particularly those of the genus Pteropus are considered to be the wildlife reservoir. The recognition of henipaviruses occurring across a wider geographic and host range suggests the possibility of the virus entering the United Kingdom (UK. To estimate the likelihood of henipaviruses entering the UK, a qualitative release assessment was undertaken. To facilitate the release assessment, the world was divided into four zones according to location of outbreaks of henipaviruses, isolation of henipaviruses, proximity to other countries where incidents of henipaviruses have occurred and the distribution of Pteropus spp. fruit bats. From this release assessment, the key findings are that the importation of fruit from Zone 1 and 2 and bat bushmeat from Zone 1 each have a Low annual probability of release of henipaviruses into the UK. Similarly, the importation of bat meat from Zone 2, horses and companion animals from Zone 1 and people travelling from Zone 1 and entering the UK was estimated to pose a Very Low probability of release. The annual probability of release for all other release routes was assessed to be Negligible. It is recommended that the release assessment be periodically re-assessed to reflect changes in knowledge and circumstances over time.

  11. Applying a weed risk assessment approach to GM crops.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keese, Paul K; Robold, Andrea V; Myers, Ruth C; Weisman, Sarah; Smith, Joe

    2014-12-01

    Current approaches to environmental risk assessment of genetically modified (GM) plants are modelled on chemical risk assessment methods, which have a strong focus on toxicity. There are additional types of harms posed by plants that have been extensively studied by weed scientists and incorporated into weed risk assessment methods. Weed risk assessment uses robust, validated methods that are widely applied to regulatory decision-making about potentially problematic plants. They are designed to encompass a broad variety of plant forms and traits in different environments, and can provide reliable conclusions even with limited data. The knowledge and experience that underpin weed risk assessment can be harnessed for environmental risk assessment of GM plants. A case study illustrates the application of the Australian post-border weed risk assessment approach to a representative GM plant. This approach is a valuable tool to identify potential risks from GM plants.

  12. Techniques of structural family assessment: a qualitative analysis of how experts promote a systemic perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nichols, Michael; Tafuri, Sydney

    2013-06-01

    The trajectory of assessment in structural family therapy moves from a linear perspective, in which problems are located in the identified patient, to an interactional perspective, in which problems are seen as involving other members of the family. Minuchin, Nichols, & Lee (2007) developed a 4-step model for assessing couples and families consisting of: (1) broadening the definition of the presenting complaint to include its context, (2) identifying problem-maintaining interactions, (3) a structurally focused exploration of the past, and (4) developing a shared vision of pathways to change. To study how experts actually implement this model, judges coded video recordings of 10 initial consultations conducted by three widely recognized structural family therapists. Qualitative analyses identified 25 distinct techniques that these clinicians used to challenge linear thinking and move families toward a systemic understanding of their problems. We discuss and locate these techniques in the framework of the 4-step model.

  13. Risk Perception of Nonspecific Low Back Pain among Nurses: A Qualitative Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abedini, Sedigheh; Morowatisharifabad, Mohammad Ali; Enjezab, Behnaz; Barkhordari, Abolfazl; Fallahzadeh, Hossein

    2014-01-01

    Low back pain (LBP) is a common medical problem among nurses. A better understanding of nurses' experiences about LBP may help to develop preventative approaches. The study aimed to explore risk perceptions of nonspecific LBP among nurses in Bandar Abbas City, southern Iran. This qualitative study conducted as directed content analysis in 2013. Private semi-structured interviews were conducted with a convenience sample of 30 nurses with minimum of 1-year working experience in hospital. The interview questions were based on perceived severity and vulnerability structures of Protection Motivation Theory. All interviews were transcribed and analyzed using thematic analysis. Perceived Severity had the following sub-themes: developing disorders in one's own life and profession, psychical and mental consequences, conflicts and problems in family life, and financial problems. Two sub-themes (problems and limitations in hospital's working system, nature of nursing profession) were identified in relation to perceived vulnerability. Nurses reflected their concerns about the impact of LBP on their job security and their considerations about how their back pain might be interpreted by their employers and co-workers. Importance of transparent medical diagnostic procedure and clinical evidence to justify degree of LBP and its burden on the nurses' performance was also addressed.

  14. [Social network analysis and high risk behavior characteristics of recreational drug users: a qualitative study].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Di; Wang, Zhenhong; Jiang, Zhenxia; Fu, Xiaojing; Li, Hui; Zhang, Dapeng; Liu, Hui; Hu, Yifei

    2014-11-01

    To understand the characteristics of recreational drug users' behaviors and social network, as well as their potential impact to the transmission of sexual transmitted infections (STI). Qualitative interview was used to collect information on rough estimation of population size and behavior change before and after recreational drug use. A total of 120 participants were recruited by convenient sampling from April to October, 2013 in a community of Qingdao city. Blood specimens were taken for HIV/syphilis serological testing and social network analysis was performed to understand the characteristics of their behavior and social network. All participants used methamphetamine and 103 of them showed social connection. The prevalence of syphilis and HIV were 24.2% (29/120) and 2.5% (3/120) respectively. The estimated size of recreational drug users was big with a wide diversity of occupations and age range, and males were more frequent than females. Drug use may affect condom use and frequent drug users showed symptom of psychosis and neuro-toxicities. The size of social network was 2.45 ± 1.63 in the past 6 months, which indicated an increasing trend of the sexual partner number and risky behaviors. Recreational drug use could increase the size of social network among sex partners, the frequency of risky sexual behaviors and syphilis prevalence, which indicate a high risk of HIV/STI among this population as well as a huge burden of disease prevention and control in the future.

  15. Risk Perception of Nonspecific Low Back Pain among Nurses: A Qualitative Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sedigheh Abedini

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Background:Low back pain (LBP is a common medical problem among nurses. A better understanding of nurses’ experiences about LBP may help to develop preventative approaches. The study aimed to explore risk perceptions of nonspecific LBP among nurses in Bandar Abbas City, southern Iran. Methods: This qualitative study conducted as directed content analysis in 2013. Private semi-structured interviews were conducted with a convenience sample of 30 nurses with minimum of 1-year working experience in hospital. The interview questions were based on perceived severity and vulnerability structures of Protection Motivation Theory. All interviews were transcribed and analyzed using thematic analysis. Results: Perceived Severity had the following sub-themes: developing disorders in one’s own life and profession, psychical and mental consequences, conflicts and problems in family life, and financial problems. Two sub-themes (problems and limitations in hospital’s working system, nature of nursing profession were identified in relation to perceived vulnerability. Conclusion: Nurses reflected their concerns about the impact of LBP on their job security and their considerations about how their back pain might be interpreted by their employers and co-workers. Importance of transparent medical diagnostic procedure and clinical evidence to justify degree of LBP and its burden on the nurses’ performance was also addressed.

  16. A classification scheme for risk assessment methods.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stamp, Jason Edwin; Campbell, Philip LaRoche

    2004-08-01

    This report presents a classification scheme for risk assessment methods. This scheme, like all classification schemes, provides meaning by imposing a structure that identifies relationships. Our scheme is based on two orthogonal aspects--level of detail, and approach. The resulting structure is shown in Table 1 and is explained in the body of the report. Each cell in the Table represent a different arrangement of strengths and weaknesses. Those arrangements shift gradually as one moves through the table, each cell optimal for a particular situation. The intention of this report is to enable informed use of the methods so that a method chosen is optimal for a situation given. This report imposes structure on the set of risk assessment methods in order to reveal their relationships and thus optimize their usage.We present a two-dimensional structure in the form of a matrix, using three abstraction levels for the rows and three approaches for the columns. For each of the nine cells in the matrix we identify the method type by name and example. The matrix helps the user understand: (1) what to expect from a given method, (2) how it relates to other methods, and (3) how best to use it. Each cell in the matrix represent a different arrangement of strengths and weaknesses. Those arrangements shift gradually as one moves through the table, each cell optimal for a particular situation. The intention of this report is to enable informed use of the methods so that a method chosen is optimal for a situation given. The matrix, with type names in the cells, is introduced in Table 2 on page 13 below. Unless otherwise stated we use the word 'method' in this report to refer to a 'risk assessment method', though often times we use the full phrase. The use of the terms 'risk assessment' and 'risk management' are close enough that we do not attempt to distinguish them in this report. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. In

  17. Assessing the Invasion Risk of Eucalyptus in the United States Using the Australian Weed Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Doria R. Gordon

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Many agricultural species have undergone selection for traits that are consistent with those that increase the probability that a species will become invasive. However, the risk of invasion may be accurately predicted for the majority of plant species tested using the Australian Weed Risk Assessment (WRA. This system has been tested in multiple climates and geographies and, on average, correctly identifies 90% of the major plant invaders as having high invasion risk, and 70% of the noninvaders as having low risk. We used this tool to evaluate the invasion risk of 38 Eucalyptus taxa currently being tested and cultivated in the USA for pulp, biofuel, and other purposes. We predict 15 taxa to have low risk of invasion, 14 taxa to have high risk, and 9 taxa to require further information. In addition to a history of naturalization and invasiveness elsewhere, the traits that significantly contribute to a high invasion risk conclusion include having prolific seed production and a short generation time. Selection against these traits should reduce the probability that eucalypts cultivated in the USA will become invasive threats to natural areas and agricultural systems.

  18. Interobserver and Intraobserver Agreement on Qualitative Assessments of Right Ventricular Dysfunction With Echocardiography in Patients With Pulmonary Embolism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weekes, Anthony J; Oh, Laura; Thacker, Gregory; Johnson, Angela K; Runyon, Michael; Rose, Geoffrey; Johnson, Thomas; Templin, Megan; Norton, H James

    2016-10-01

    To evaluate observer agreement using qualitative goal-directed echocardiographic criteria for right ventricular (RV) dysfunction prognostication in submassive pulmonary embolism (PE). Two emergency physicians and 2 cardiologists independently reviewed 31 packets of goal-directed echocardiographic video clips consisting of at least 3 windows obtained by emergency physicians from normotensive patients with PE. Nine packets were repeated to assess for intraobserver agreement. Right ventricular dysfunction criteria on goal-directed echocardiography were as follows: RV enlargement was present, with a right-to-left ventricular basal diameter ratio of 1.0 or higher and blunting of the apex of the RV in 2 or more different windows; RV systolic dysfunction was present if the tricuspid annulus moved toward the apex 10 mm or less and there was RV free wall hypokinesis; and septal deviation was present with any flattening or deviation of the ventricular septum toward the left ventricle. Among the 4 participants, there was 83.9% agreement on the presence or absence of RV enlargement (κ = 0.84), 74.2% agreement on the presence or absence of RV systolic dysfunction (κ = 0.69), and 71.0% agreement on the presence or absence of septal deviation (κ = 0.59). Intraobserver agreement was 100% for each RV dysfunction variable for each observer (κ = 1.0). Agreement was substantial for both severe RV enlargement and RV systolic dysfunction and moderate for septal deviation. Right ventricular dysfunction assessment with qualitative goal-directed echocardiographic criteria is reproducible for PE risk stratification.

  19. Assessment and insurance risk of foreign economic activity: accounting aspect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.V. Susyuk

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Based on research approaches to risk positioning grounded classification of risks arising in foreign trade activity. Deals with issues of assessment and insurance risks expediency display your losses from them. To reduce the negative impact of risks the theoretical foundations of security and practical advice with his reflection in the system of accounts. Grounded algorithm to select the most suitable method of risk assessment and constructed flowchart automation choice method for assessing the risk of foreign trade. The expediency of development of self-insurance risks of foreign economic activity.

  20. Multi-hazard risk assessment applied to hydraulic fracturing operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Aristizabal, Alexander; Gasparini, Paolo; Russo, Raffaella; Capuano, Paolo

    2017-04-01

    Without exception, the exploitation of any energy resource produces impacts and intrinsically bears risks. Therefore, to make sound decisions about future energy resource exploitation, it is important to clearly understand the potential environmental impacts in the full life-cycle of an energy development project, distinguishing between the specific impacts intrinsically related to exploiting a given energy resource and those shared with the exploitation of other energy resources. Technological advances as directional drilling and hydraulic fracturing have led to a rapid expansion of unconventional resources (UR) exploration and exploitation; as a consequence, both public health and environmental concerns have risen. The main objective of a multi-hazard risk assessment applied to the development of UR is to assess the rate (or the likelihood) of occurrence of incidents and the relative potential impacts on surrounding environment, considering different hazards and their interactions. Such analyses have to be performed considering the different stages of development of a project; however, the discussion in this paper is mainly focused on the analysis applied to the hydraulic fracturing stage of a UR development project. The multi-hazard risk assessment applied to the development of UR poses a number of challenges, making of this one a particularly complex problem. First, a number of external hazards might be considered as potential triggering mechanisms. Such hazards can be either of natural origin or anthropogenic events caused by the same industrial activities. Second, failures might propagate through the industrial elements, leading to complex scenarios according to the layout of the industrial site. Third, there is a number of potential risk receptors, ranging from environmental elements (as the air, soil, surface water, or groundwater) to local communities and ecosystems. The multi-hazard risk approach for this problem is set by considering multiple hazards

  1. Entry-level physiotherapists' strategies to lower occupational injury risk in physiotherapy: a qualitative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potter, Margaret; Jones, Sue

    2006-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to identify entry-level physiotherapists perceptions of workplace injuries in private practice and the strategies they may use to reduce occupational injury risk in physiotherapy. Seventy-nine final year physiotherapy students were presented with a private practice workplace scenario, recent injury statistics, and common job risk factors in physiotherapy and were required to choose between the options of being a salaried employee or contractor and to discuss self-management strategies. This question was part of a substantive written examination that is a compulsory aspect of the final assessment for these students. Students identified nine categories for self-management and reducing injury risk with the majority of students choosing the option of being a contractor in preference to being a salaried employee. Regardless of the preferred employment option, students tended to select self-management strategies that would have a negative impact on income and service delivery and may be reflective of the relative inexperience of these students in private sector workplace settings. Given the high prevalence of work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WRMDs) in the 5 five years postgraduation, the findings from this study highlight the need for educational institutions and employers to address occupational health and risk factors in physiotherapy, which would include education on prevention as well as appropriate self-management strategies within each workplace.

  2. Moving Forward in Writing Program Assessment Design: Why Postmodern Qualitative Assessment Makes Sense

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nora, Krystia

    2010-01-01

    An examination of postmodern grounded theory and narrative research methodology philosophies should make us rethink foundational issues in writing assessment design. Postmodern approaches emphasize interpretation and meaning-making, arguing that truths are made rather than found. In fact, many postmodern researchers emphasize the impossibility of…

  3. Novel flood risk assessment framework for rapid decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valyrakis, Manousos; Koursari, Eftychia; Solley, Mark

    2016-04-01

    The impacts of catastrophic flooding, have significantly increased over the last few decades. This is due to primarily the increased urbanisation in ever-expanding mega-cities as well as due to the intensification both in magnitude and frequency of extreme hydrologic events. Herein a novel conceptual framework is presented that incorporates the use of real-time information to inform and update low dimensionality hydraulic models, to allow for rapid decision making towards preventing loss of life and safeguarding critical infrastructure. In particular, a case study from the recent UK floods in the area of Whitesands (Dumfries), is presented to demonstrate the utility of this approach. It is demonstrated that effectively combining a wealth of readily available qualitative information (such as crowdsourced visual documentation or using live data from sensing techniques), with existing quantitative data, can help appropriately update hydraulic models and reduce modelling uncertainties in future flood risk assessments. This approach is even more useful in cases where hydraulic models are limited, do not exist or were not needed before unpredicted dynamic modifications to the river system took place (for example in the case of reduced or eliminated hydraulic capacity due to blockages). The low computational cost and rapid assessment this framework offers, render it promising for innovating in flood management.

  4. Food allergy and risk assessment: Current status and future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remington, Benjamin C.

    2017-09-01

    Risk analysis is a three part, interactive process that consists of a scientific risk assessment, a risk management strategy and an exchange of information through risk communication. Quantitative risk assessment methodologies are now available and widely used for assessing risks regarding the unintentional consumption of major, regulated allergens but new or modified proteins can also pose a risk of de-novo sensitization. The risks due to de-novo sensitization to new food allergies are harder to quantify. There is a need for a systematic, comprehensive battery of tests and assessment strategy to identify and characterise de-novo sensitization to new proteins and the risks associated with them. A risk assessment must be attuned to answer the risk management questions and needs. Consequently, the hazard and risk assessment methods applied and the desired information are determined by the requested outcome for risk management purposes and decisions to be made. The COST Action network (ImpARAS, www.imparas.eu) has recently started to discuss these risk management criteria from first principles and will continue with the broader subject of improving strategies for allergen risk assessment throughout 2016-2018/9.

  5. Qualitative assessment of visuospatial errors in mercury-exposed Amazonian children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chevrier, Cécile; Sullivan, Kimberly; White, Roberta F.;

    2009-01-01

    In order to better define the effects of methylmercury (MeHg) exposure on neurodevelopment, qualitative error types observed in the responses of exposed children to the Stanford-Binet Copying Test were categorized and quantified using raw data from two studies of 395 Amazonian children aged 7...... with adjustment for confounders. In the combined data set, mercury exposure was negatively associated with scores on the drawing task: a score reduction of 1.2 (s.e., 0.3) points was observed in the children with a hair-mercury concentration above 10 μg/g compared to those with a hair level below 1 μg....../g; this effect appeared to be stronger in the younger children. Risk of committing one or more errors of rotation, simplification or perseveration in the drawings increased with hair-mercury concentration in both cultural settings, providing convergent evidence of specific types of MeHg-related neurocognitive...

  6. Importance assessment of decision attributes: A qualitative study comparing experts and laypersons

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heerkens, Hans; Norde, Christiaan; Heijden, van der Beatrice

    2011-01-01

    Purpose – This paper aims to investigate differences between experts and laypersons concerning the way they assess the importance of each of the various decision attributes (cost, risk, feasibility) taken into consideration during decision processes in an organizational setting. Design/methodology/

  7. GPs' opinions of health assessment instruments for people with intellectual disabilities: a qualitative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakker-van Gijssel, Esther J; Olde Hartman, Tim C; Lucassen, Peter Lbj; van den Driessen Mareeuw, Francine; Dees, Marianne K; Assendelft, Willem Jj; van Schrojenstein Lantman-de Valk, Henny Mj

    2017-01-01

    GPs provide health care to people with intellectual disabilities (ID). People with ID find it difficult to express themselves concerning health-related matters. Applying health assessments is an effective method to reveal health needs, and can play a role in prevention and health promotion. The aim of this qualitative study was to explore GPs' considerations about applying a health assessment for people with ID. This focus group study was conducted among a selection of Dutch GPs. An interview guide was developed. All discussions were audiorecorded and transcribed. Analysis was performed using the framework analysis approach. Two researchers independently applied open coding and identified a thematic framework. This framework and the summaries of views per theme were discussed in the research team. After four focus groups, with 23 GPs, saturation was reached. Three main themes evolved: health assessments in relation to GPs' responsibility; the usefulness and necessity of health assessments; and barriers to using health assessments on people with ID. A health assessment instrument for people with ID can help GPs to focus on certain issues that are not so common in the general population. GPs are motivated to use such a tool if it is scientifically tested, and results in significant health gains. However, GPs identify barriers at the level of GP, patient, and organisation. Most GPs in the focus groups consider providing medical care to people with ID their responsibility and indicate that a health assessment instrument could be a valuable tool. In order to deliver good care, they need education and support. Many barriers need to be overcome before a health assessment instrument can be implemented. © British Journal of General Practice 2017.

  8. Physiotherapists' assessment of patients' psychosocial status: are we standing on thin ice? A qualitative descriptive study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singla, Mukul; Jones, Mark; Edwards, Ian; Kumar, Saravana

    2015-04-01

    Pain is a complex problem and one that confronts many physiotherapists' working in private practice on a daily basis. While physiotherapists' understanding of pain has matured a great deal in recent times, especially the role of psychosocial (PS) factors, it is unclear if and how, physiotherapists assess their patients' psychosocial status in clinical practice. The aim of this study was to explore private practice physiotherapists' assessment of patients' psychosocial status. A qualitative descriptive research design was used in this study. Participants were recruited through purposeful sampling and potential informants were invited to participate through letters or phone calls and data was collected via semi-structured interviews. Nine semi-structured interviews were conducted at the participants' workplaces. Data collection and analysis were conducted simultaneously and common concepts and themes were recognised, coded and grouped together into themes. Analysis of the data resulted in identification of various themes related to physiotherapists' assessment of patients' PS status. These themes relate to; physiotherapists capacity to conduct PS assessment, the barriers they face while conducting PS assessment and the suggestions they have provided to overcome these barriers. In general the physiotherapists' in this study demonstrated and acknowledged a poor understanding of the role of PS factors in their patients' clinical presentation. They were also unclear about the assessment of psychosocial factors. The barriers to assessment of psychosocial factors ranged from individual shortcomings to limitations in professional networks and time constraints. The most consistent barrier highlighted was participants' lack of formal education in PS theory and assessment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. [Regional atmospheric environment risk source identification and assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiao-Chun; Chen, Wei-Ping; Ma, Chun; Zhan, Shui-Fen; Jiao, Wen-Tao

    2012-12-01

    Identification and assessment for atmospheric environment risk source plays an important role in regional atmospheric risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control. The likelihood exposure and consequence assessment method (LEC method) and the Delphi method were employed to build a fast and effective method for identification and assessment of regional atmospheric environment risk sources. This method was applied to the case study of a large coal transportation port in North China. The assessment results showed that the risk characteristics and the harm degree of regional atmospheric environment risk source were in line with the actual situation. Fast and effective identification and assessment of risk source has laid an important foundation for the regional atmospheric environmental risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control.

  10. Ecological risk assessment conceptual model formulation for nonindigenous species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landis, Wayne G

    2004-08-01

    This article addresses the application of ecological risk assessment at the regional scale to the prediction of impacts due to invasive or nonindigenous species (NIS). The first section describes risk assessment, the decision-making process, and introduces regional risk assessment. A general conceptual model for the risk assessment of NIS is then presented based upon the regional risk assessment approach. Two diverse examples of the application of this approach are presented. The first example is based upon the dynamics of introduced plasmids into bacteria populations. The second example is the application risk assessment approach to the invasion of a coastal marine site of Cherry Point, Washington, USA by the European green crab. The lessons learned from the two examples demonstrate that assessment of the risks of invasion of NIS will have to incorporate not only the characteristics of the invasive species, but also the other stresses and impacts affecting the region of interest.

  11. Ecological Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Higher Plants (GMHP)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjær, C.; Damgaard, C.; Kjellsson, G.

    of the project Biotechnology: elements in environmental risk assessment of genetically modified plants. December 1999 Christian Kjær Introduction In ecological risk assessment of transgenic plants, information on a wide range of subjects is needed for an effective and reliable assessment procedure...... the actual risk assessment procedures and the risk evaluation, which must proceed the data collection. The report use the terminology ecological risk assessment rather than environmental risk assessment because at present this work does not include bio-geochemical effects and environmental impacts from...... for uncertainties in the extrapolation from limited laboratory studies to the species rich field environment. The relationship between the size of the safety factor and the number of species is therefore an issue of the risk assessment. Some of the issues raised in this report overlap with data needs...

  12. Radiological risk assessment of environmental radon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalid, Norafatin; Majid, Amran Ab; Yahaya, Redzuwan; Yasir, Muhammad Samudi

    2013-11-01

    Measurements of radon gas (222Rn) in the environmental are important to assess indoor air quality and to study the potential risk to human health. Generally known that exposure to radon is considered the second leading cause of lung cancer after smoking. The environmental radon concentration depends on the 226Ra concentration, indoor atmosphere, cracking on rocks and building materials. This study was carried out to determine the indoor radon concentration from selected samples of tin tailings (amang) and building materials in an airtight sealed homemade radon chamber. The radiological risk assessment for radon gas was also calculated based on the annual exposure dose, effective dose equivalent, radon exhalation rates and fatal cancer risk. The continuous radon monitor Sun Nuclear model 1029 was used to measure the radon concentration emanates from selected samples for 96 hours. Five types of tin tailings collected from Kampar, Perak and four samples of building materials commonly used in Malaysia dwellings or building constructions were analysed for radon concentration. The indoor radon concentration determined in ilmenite, monazite, struverite, xenotime and zircon samples varies from 219.6 ± 76.8 Bq m-3 to 571.1 ± 251.4 Bq m-3, 101.0 ± 41.0 Bq m-3 to 245.3 ± 100.2 Bq m-3, 53.1 ± 7.5 Bq m-3 to 181.8 ± 9.7 Bq m-3, 256.1 ± 59.3 Bq m-3 to 652.2 ± 222.2 Bq m-3 and 164.5 ± 75.9 Bq m-3 to 653.3 ± 240.0 Bq m-3, respectively. Whereas, in the building materials, the radon concentration from cement brick, red-clay brick, gravel aggregate and cement showed 396.3 ± 194.3 Bq m-3, 192.1 ± 75.4 Bq m-3, 176.1 ± 85.9 Bq m-3 and 28.4 ± 5.7 Bq m-3, respectively. The radon concentration in tin tailings and building materials were found to be much higher in xenotime and cement brick samples than others. All samples in tin tailings were exceeded the action level for radon gas of 148 Bq m-3 proposed by EPA except monazite 0.15 kg, struverite 0.15 kg and 0.25 kg. Whereas

  13. DETERMINANTS OF RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS IN CRITICAL ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE

    OpenAIRE

    Przemysław Borkowski

    2016-01-01

    Article deals with the problem of risk assessment in critical energy infrastructure. Firstly the critical infrastructure in energy sector is discussed than risk identification methodology for application to critical infrastructure is proposed. Specific conditions resulting from features of critical infrastructure are addressed in the context of risk assessment procedure. The limits of such a procedure are outlined and critical factors influencing different stages of risk assessment process a...

  14. DETERMINANTS OF RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS IN CRITICAL ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Przemysław Borkowski

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Article deals with the problem of risk assessment in critical energy infrastructure. Firstly the critical infrastructure in energy sector is discussed than risk identification methodology for application to critical infrastructure is proposed. Specific conditions resulting from features of critical infrastructure are addressed in the context of risk assessment procedure. The limits of such a procedure are outlined and critical factors influencing different stages of risk assessment process are researched in view of specificity of the sector.

  15. Comparative Assessment Of Natural Gas Accident Risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burgherr, P.; Hirschberg, S

    2005-01-01

    The study utilizes a hierarchical approach including (1) comparative analyses of different energy chains, (2) specific evaluations for the natural gas chain, and (3) a detailed overview of the German situation, based on an extensive data set provided by Deutsche Vereinigung des Gas- und Wasserfaches (DVGW). According to SVGW-expertise DVGW-data can be regarded as fully representative for Swiss conditions due to very similar technologies, management, regulations and safety culture, but has a substantially stronger statistical basis because the German gas grid is about 30 times larger compared to Switzerland. Specifically, the following tasks were carried out by PSI to accomplish the objectives of this project: (1) Consolidation of existing ENSAD data, (2) identification and evaluation of additional sources, (3) comparative assessment of accident risks, and (4) detailed evaluations of specific issues and technical aspects for severe and smaller accidents in the natural gas chain that are relevant under Swiss conditions. (author)

  16. Performing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Through RAVEN

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    A. Alfonsi; C. Rabiti; D. Mandelli; J. Cogliati; R. Kinoshita

    2013-06-01

    The Reactor Analysis and Virtual control ENviroment (RAVEN) code is a software tool that acts as the control logic driver and post-processing engine for the newly developed Thermal-Hydraulic code RELAP-7. RAVEN is now a multi-purpose Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) software framework that allows dispatching different functionalities: Derive and actuate the control logic required to simulate the plant control system and operator actions (guided procedures), allowing on-line monitoring/controlling in the Phase Space Perform both Monte-Carlo sampling of random distributed events and Dynamic Event Tree based analysis Facilitate the input/output handling through a Graphical User Interface (GUI) and a post-processing data mining module

  17. Miniature Biosensor with Health Risk Assessment Feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, Andrea; Downs, Meghan; Kalogera, Kent; Buxton, Roxanne; Cooper, Tommy; Cooper, Alan; Cooper, Ross

    2016-01-01

    Heart rate (HR) monitoring is a medical requirement during exercise on the International Space Station (ISS), fitness tests, and extravehicular activity (EVA); however, NASA does not currently have the technology to consistently and accurately monitor HR and other physiological data during these activities. Performance of currently available HR monitor technologies is dependent on uninterrupted contact with the torso and are prone to data drop-out and motion artifact. Here, we seek an alternative to the chest strap and electrode based sensors currently in use on ISS today. This project aims to develop a high performance, robust earbud based biosensor with focused efforts on improved HR data quality during exercise or EVA. A health risk assessment algorithm will further advance the goals of autonomous crew health care for exploration missions.

  18. Risk-Assessment for Equipment Operating on the Lunar Surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richmond, R. C.; Kusiak, A.; Ramachandran, N.

    2008-01-01

    Particle-size distribution of lunar dust simulant is evaluated using scanning electron spectroscopy in order to consider approaches to evaluating risk to individual mechanical components operating on the lunar surface. Assessing component risk and risk-mitigation during actual operations will require noninvasive continuous data gathering on numerous parameters. Those data sets would best be evaluated using data-mining algorithms to assess risk, and recovery from risk, of individual mechanical components in real-time.

  19. Teaching methods in Hawler College of Medicine in Iraq: A qualitative assessment from teachers' perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saleh Abubakir M

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Medical education in Iraq is poorly assessed and there is a general lack of documented knowledge about the challenges facing this field and the needs for its development. This study aimed to assess the existing teaching methods in the Hawler College of Medicine, Iraq from teaching staff perspectives and assess the knowledge of the teaching staff about student-centred learning. Methods A qualitative study based on a self-administered questionnaire survey of a purposive sample of 83 teaching staff in Hawler Medical University was conducted. The questionnaire addressed the participants’ view on the positive aspects and problems of the current teaching methods and priorities to change it. The qualitative data analysis comprised thematic analysis. Results The study revealed significant problems facing the existing teaching methods including having large number of students in the lecture hall (45.0 %, having focus on teacher-centred teaching (45.0 % and lack of infrastructures and facilities suitable for proper teaching (26.7 %. The priorities for improving the quality of teaching methods included adoption of small group teaching strategy in all study years (34.6 %, improving the infrastructure and facilities for teaching in the college (34.6 % and provision of continuous academic development programs for the teaching staff (24.3 %. Conclusions The existing medical education system face significant problems and it needs important and comprehensive improvements in different areas. There is a need for further research in this field to explore the identified problems in a more in-depth manner in order to better understand of the problems and needs of this important area of education.

  20. Teaching methods in Hawler College of Medicine in Iraq: a qualitative assessment from teachers' perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saleh, Abubakir M; Al-Tawil, Namir G; Al-Hadithi, Tariq S

    2012-07-27

    Medical education in Iraq is poorly assessed and there is a general lack of documented knowledge about the challenges facing this field and the needs for its development. This study aimed to assess the existing teaching methods in the Hawler College of Medicine, Iraq from teaching staff perspectives and assess the knowledge of the teaching staff about student-centred learning. A qualitative study based on a self-administered questionnaire survey of a purposive sample of 83 teaching staff in Hawler Medical University was conducted. The questionnaire addressed the participants' view on the positive aspects and problems of the current teaching methods and priorities to change it. The qualitative data analysis comprised thematic analysis. The study revealed significant problems facing the existing teaching methods including having large number of students in the lecture hall (45.0 %), having focus on teacher-centred teaching (45.0 %) and lack of infrastructures and facilities suitable for proper teaching (26.7 %). The priorities for improving the quality of teaching methods included adoption of small group teaching strategy in all study years (34.6 %), improving the infrastructure and facilities for teaching in the college (34.6 %) and provision of continuous academic development programs for the teaching staff (24.3 %). The existing medical education system face significant problems and it needs important and comprehensive improvements in different areas. There is a need for further research in this field to explore the identified problems in a more in-depth manner in order to better understand of the problems and needs of this important area of education.

  1. Inhalation cancer risk assessment of cobalt metal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suh, Mina; Thompson, Chad M; Brorby, Gregory P; Mittal, Liz; Proctor, Deborah M

    2016-08-01

    Cobalt compounds (metal, salts, hard metals, oxides, and alloys) are used widely in various industrial, medical and military applications. Chronic inhalation exposure to cobalt metal and cobalt sulfate has caused lung cancer in rats and mice, as well as systemic tumors in rats. Cobalt compounds are listed as probable or possible human carcinogens by some agencies, and there is a need for quantitative cancer toxicity criteria. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has derived a provisional inhalation unit risk (IUR) of 0.009 per μg/m(3) based on a chronic inhalation study of soluble cobalt sulfate heptahydrate; however, a recent 2-year cancer bioassay affords the opportunity to derive IURs specifically for cobalt metal. The mechanistic data support that the carcinogenic mode of action (MOA) is likely to involve oxidative stress, and thus, non-linear/threshold mechanisms. However, the lack of a detailed MOA and use of high, toxic exposure concentrations in the bioassay (≥1.25 mg/m(3)) preclude derivation of a reference concentration (RfC) protective of cancer. Several analyses resulted in an IUR of 0.003 per μg/m(3) for cobalt metal, which is ∼3-fold less potent than the provisional IUR. Future research should focus on establishing the exposure-response for key precursor events to improve cobalt metal risk assessment.

  2. Coenoses risk assessment in industry (resource specificity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tyaglov Sergey, G.

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The modernization of the economic infrastructure of modern Russia is now essential, taking a natural limiter necessary momentum, which is especially important in the current conditions of global trends and taking into account the efforts taken by the State, aimed at large-scale growth of production of Russian companies. This paper discusses the direction of overcoming the problem of lack of access to financial services to business entities, due to the lack of a universal tool to identify risks in the provision of credit resources to the understanding that, despite the differences in interpretation of Russian and foreign sources, is a complex of ontological perception of researchers, proposed expanded by generally accepted phenomenon of self-organization. It is proposed to assess the risks of the enterprises on the basis of the provisions of coenoses theory, which allows using a few key parameters to determine the degree of efficiency of use of available resources, to identify the stability of the enterprise as a system and predict its dynamic changes.

  3. A Successful ED Fall Risk Program Using the KINDER 1 Fall RiskAssessment Tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Townsend, Ann B; Valle-Ortiz, Marisol; Sansweet, Tracy

    2016-11-01

    Emergency nurses did not perform falls risk assessments routinely on our ED patients; the instrument used was aimed at inpatients. We identified a need to revise fall assessment practices specific to our emergency department. The purpose of the performance improvement project was to reduce ED falls and evaluate the use of an ED-specific fall risk tool, the KINDER 1 Fall Risk Assessment. The plan was to establish fall risk assessment practices at point of ED entry and to decrease total falls.

  4. A qualitative and quantitative needs assessment of pain management for hospitalized orthopedic patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cordts, Grace A; Grant, Marian S; Brandt, Lynsey E; Mears, Simon C

    2011-08-08

    Despite advances in pain management, little formal teaching is given to practitioners and nurses in its use for postoperative orthopedic patients. The goal of our study was to determine the educational needs for orthopedic pain management of our residents, nurses, and physical therapists using a quantitative and qualitative assessment. The needs analysis was conducted in a 10-bed orthopedic unit at a teaching hospital and included a survey given to 20 orthopedic residents, 9 nurses, and 6 physical therapists, followed by focus groups addressing barriers to pain control and knowledge of pain management. Key challenges for nurses included not always having breakthrough pain medication orders and the gap in pain management between cessation of patient-controlled analgesia and ordering and administering oral medications. Key challenges for orthopedic residents included treating pain in patients with a history of substance abuse, assessing pain, and determining when to use long-acting vs short-acting opioids. Focus group assessments revealed a lack of training in pain management and the need for better coordination of care between nurses and practitioners and improved education about special needs groups (the elderly and those with substance abuse issues). This needs assessment showed that orthopedic residents and nurses receive little formal education on pain management, despite having to address pain on a daily basis. This information will be used to develop an educational program to improve pain management for postoperative orthopedic patients. An integrated educational program with orthopedic residents, nurses, and physical therapists would promote understanding of issues for each discipline.

  5. Risk, surprises and black swans fundamental ideas and concepts in risk assessment and risk management

    CERN Document Server

    Aven, Terje

    2014-01-01

    Risk, Surprises and Black Swans provides an in depth analysis of the risk concept with a focus on the critical link to knowledge; and the lack of knowledge, that risk and probability judgements are based on.Based on technical scientific research, this book presents a new perspective to help you understand how to assess and manage surprising, extreme events, known as 'Black Swans'. This approach looks beyond the traditional probability-based principles to offer a broader insight into the important aspects of uncertain events and in doing so explores the ways to manage them.

  6. Data driven approaches vs. qualitative approaches in climate change impact and vulnerability assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zebisch, Marc; Schneiderbauer, Stefan; Petitta, Marcello

    2015-04-01

    In the last decade the scope of climate change science has broadened significantly. 15 years ago the focus was mainly on understanding climate change, providing climate change scenarios and giving ideas about potential climate change impacts. Today, adaptation to climate change has become an increasingly important field of politics and one role of science is to inform and consult this process. Therefore, climate change science is not anymore focusing on data driven approaches only (such as climate or climate impact models) but is progressively applying and relying on qualitative approaches including opinion and expertise acquired through interactive processes with local stakeholders and decision maker. Furthermore, climate change science is facing the challenge of normative questions, such us 'how important is a decrease of yield in a developed country where agriculture only represents 3% of the GDP and the supply with agricultural products is strongly linked to global markets and less depending on local production?'. In this talk we will present examples from various applied research and consultancy projects on climate change vulnerabilities including data driven methods (e.g. remote sensing and modelling) to semi-quantitative and qualitative assessment approaches. Furthermore, we will discuss bottlenecks, pitfalls and opportunities in transferring climate change science to policy and decision maker oriented climate services.

  7. Residual Isocyanates in Medical Devices and Products: A Qualitative and Quantitative Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franklin, Gillian; Harari, Homero; Ahsan, Samavi; Bello, Dhimiter; Sterling, David A.; Nedrelow, Jonathan; Raynaud, Scott; Biswas, Swati; Liu, Youcheng

    2016-01-01

    We conducted a pilot qualitative and quantitative assessment of residual isocyanates and their potential initial exposures in neonates, as little is known about their contact effect. After a neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) stockroom inventory, polyurethane (PU) and PU foam (PUF) devices and products were qualitatively evaluated for residual isocyanates using Surface SWYPE™. Those containing isocyanates were quantitatively tested for methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) species, using UPLC-UV-MS/MS method. Ten of 37 products and devices tested, indicated both free and bound residual surface isocyanates; PU/PUF pieces contained aromatic isocyanates; one product contained aliphatic isocyanates. Overall, quantified mean MDI concentrations were low (4,4′-MDI = 0.52 to 140.1 pg/mg) and (2,4′-MDI = 0.01 to 4.48 pg/mg). The 4,4′-MDI species had the highest measured concentration (280 pg/mg). Commonly used medical devices/products contain low, but measurable concentrations of residual isocyanates. Quantifying other isocyanate species and neonatal skin exposure to isocyanates from these devices and products requires further investigation.

  8. Noninvasive Qualitative and Quantitative Assessment of Spoilage Attributes of Chilled Pork Using Hyperspectral Scattering Technique.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Leilei; Peng, Yankun

    2016-08-01

    The objective of this research was to develop a rapid noninvasive method for quantitative and qualitative determination of chilled pork spoilage. Microbiological, physicochemical, and organoleptic characteristics such as the total viable count (TVC), Pseudomonas spp., total volatile basic-nitrogen (TVB-N), pH value, and color parameter L* were determined to appraise pork quality. The hyperspectral scattering characteristics from 54 meat samples were fitted by four-parameter modified Gompertz function accurately. Support vector machines (SVM) was applied to establish quantitative prediction model between scattering fitting parameters and reference values. In addition, partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) and Bayesian analysis were utilized as supervised and unsupervised techniques for the qualitative identification of meat spoilage. All stored chilled meat samples were classified into three grades: "fresh," "semi-fresh," and "spoiled." Bayesian classification model was superior to PLS-DA with overall classification accuracy of 92.86%. The results demonstrated that hyperspectral scattering technique combined with SVM and Bayesian possessed a powerful capability for meat spoilage assessment rapidly and noninvasively. © The Author(s) 2016.

  9. Accuracy of qualitative analysis for assessment of skilled baseball pitching technique.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, Rochelle; Fleisig, Glenn; Elliott, Bruce; Lyman, Stephen; Osinski, Edmund

    2003-07-01

    Baseball pitching must be performed with correct technique if injuries are to be avoided and performance maximized. High-speed video analysis is accepted as the most accurate and objective method for evaluation of baseball pitching mechanics. The aim of this research was to develop an equivalent qualitative analysis method for use with standard video equipment. A qualitative analysis protocol (QAP) was developed for 24 kinematic variables identified as important to pitching performance. Twenty male baseball pitchers were videotaped using 60 Hz camcorders, and their technique evaluated using the QAP, by two independent raters. Each pitcher was also assessed using a 6-camera 200 Hz Motion Analysis system (MAS). Four QAP variables (22%) showed significant similarity with MAS results. Inter-rater reliability showed agreement on 33% of QAP variables. It was concluded that a complete and accurate profile of an athlete's pitching mechanics cannot be made using the QAP in its current form, but it is possible such simple forms of biomechanical analysis could yield accurate results before 3-D methods become obligatory.

  10. Conceptual risk assessment framework for global change risk analysis SRP

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Elphinstone, CD

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available This report is submitted as a deliverable of the SRP project Global Change Risk Analysis which aims at applying risk analysis as a unifying notion for quantifying and communicating threats to ecosystem services originating from global change...

  11. An approach for integrating toxicogenomic data in risk assessment: The dibutyl phthalate case study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Euling, Susan Y., E-mail: euling.susan@epa.gov [National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); Thompson, Chad M. [ToxStrategies, Inc., 23501 Cinco Ranch Blvd., Suite G265, Katy, TX 77494 (United States); Chiu, Weihsueh A. [National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); Benson, Robert [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region 8, Mail code 8P-W, 1595 Wynkoop Street, Denver, CO 80202 (United States)

    2013-09-15

    An approach for evaluating and integrating genomic data in chemical risk assessment was developed based on the lessons learned from performing a case study for the chemical dibutyl phthalate. A case study prototype approach was first developed in accordance with EPA guidance and recommendations of the scientific community. Dibutyl phthalate (DBP) was selected for the case study exercise. The scoping phase of the dibutyl phthalate case study was conducted by considering the available DBP genomic data, taken together with the entire data set, for whether they could inform various risk assessment aspects, such as toxicodynamics, toxicokinetics, and dose–response. A description of weighing the available dibutyl phthalate data set for utility in risk assessment provides an example for considering genomic data for future chemical assessments. As a result of conducting the scoping process, two questions—Do the DBP toxicogenomic data inform 1) the mechanisms or modes of action?, and 2) the interspecies differences in toxicodynamics?—were selected to focus the case study exercise. Principles of the general approach include considering the genomics data in conjunction with all other data to determine their ability to inform the various qualitative and/or quantitative aspects of risk assessment, and evaluating the relationship between the available genomic and toxicity outcome data with respect to study comparability and phenotypic anchoring. Based on experience from the DBP case study, recommendations and a general approach for integrating genomic data in chemical assessment were developed to advance the broader effort to utilize 21st century data in risk assessment. - Highlights: • Performed DBP case study for integrating genomic data in risk assessment • Present approach for considering genomic data in chemical risk assessment • Present recommendations for use of genomic data in chemical risk assessment.

  12. Practitioner evaluation of a novel online integrated oral health and risk assessment tool: a practice pilot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busby, M; Chapple, E; Matthews, R; Chapple, I L C

    2013-08-01

    To report the development and evaluation of an evidence-based, online, patient assessment tool, capable of measuring oral health status, future disease risk and capitation fee guidance. An online integrated oral health and risk assessment tool called DEPPA was developed, incorporating 1) PreViser(™) risk scores for periodontal disease, caries, non-carious tooth surface loss and oral cancer, 2) revised versions of Denplan Excel's Oral Health Score and 3) capitation fee guidance score. DEPPA was piloted by 25 dentists who provided quantitative and qualitative feedback. Six hundred and forty assessments were performed. There was strong agreement on the need for such a tool, that it constituted a comprehensive assessment and supported good patient communication. The validity of the system was perceived as sound and the revised capitation fee guidance broadly welcomed. While some deemed the caries risk scoring algorithm to be too sensitive, the 30% high/very high risk rating is consistent with current rates of active caries in UK adults. A viable online oral health and risk-assessment tool has been developed (DEPPA) that will allow dental teams to measure oral health status, future disease risk and receive ongoing guidance on capitation fee setting. The indications are that DEPPA could be a valuable audit, care planning and patient communication tool.

  13. Periodontal risk assessment, diagnosis and treatment planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pihlstrom, B L

    2001-01-01

    The prevention and treatment of the periodontal diseases is based on accurate diagnosis, reduction or elimination of causative agents, risk management and correction of the harmful effects of disease. Prominent and confirmed risk factors or risk predictors for periodontitis in adults include smoking, diabetes, race, P. gingivalis, P. intermedia, low education, infrequent dental attendance and genetic influences. Several other specific periodontal bacteria, herpesviruses, increased age, male, sex, depression, race, traumatic occlusion and female osteoporosis in the presence of heavy dental calculus have been shown to be associated with loss of periodontal support and can be considered to be risk indicators of periodontitis. The presence of furcation involvement, tooth mobility, and a parafunctional habit without the use of a biteguard are associated with a poorer periodontal prognosis following periodontal therapy. An accurate diagnosis can only be made by a thorough evaluation of data that have been systematically collected by: 1) patient interview, 2) medical consultation as indicated, 3) clinical periodontal examination, 4) radiographic examination, and 5) laboratory tests as needed. Clinical signs of periodontal disease such as pocket depth, loss of clinical attachment and bone loss are cumulative measures of past disease. They do not provide the dentist with a current assessment of disease activity. In an attempt to improve the ability to predict future disease progression, several types of diagnostic tests have been studied, including host inflammatory products and mediators, enzymes, tissue breakdown products and subgingival temperature. In general, the usefulness of these tests for predicting future disease activity remains to be established in terms of sensitivity, specificity and predictive value. Although microbiological analysis of subgingival plaque is not necessary to diagnose and treat most patients with periodontitis, it is helpful when treating

  14. Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2011-03-01

    contaminant exposure scenario, drilling of natural gas wells near the site. The results of this risk evaluation will guide DOE's future surveillance and monitoring activities in the area to ensure that site conditions are adequately protective of human health. This evaluation is not a comprehensive risk assessment for the site; it is intended to provide assurance that DOE's monitoring approach can detect the presence of site-related contamination at levels well below those that would pose an unacceptable risk to human health.

  15. A qualitative phenomenological study: Enhanced, risk-based FAA oversight on part 145 maintenance practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheehan, Bryan G.

    The purpose of this qualitative phenomenological study was to examine the phenomenon of enhanced, risk-based Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) oversight of Part 145 repair stations that performed aircraft maintenance for Part 121 air carriers between 2007 and 2014 in Oklahoma. Specifically, this research was utilized to explore what operational changes have occurred in the domestic Part 145 repair station industry such as variations in management or hiring practices, training, recordkeeping and technical data, inventory and aircraft parts supply-chain logistics, equipment, and facilities. After interviewing 12 managers from Part 145 repair stations in Oklahoma, six major theme codes emerged from the data: quality of oversight before 2007, quality of oversight after 2007, advantages of oversight, disadvantages of oversight, status quo of oversight, and process improvement . Of those six major theme codes, 17 subthemes appeared from the data that were used to explain the phenomenon of enhanced oversight in the Part 145 repair station industry. Forty-two percent of the participants indicated a weak FAA oversight system that has hindered the continuous process improvement program in their repair stations. Some of them were financially burdened after hiring additional full-time quality assurance inspectors to specifically manage enhanced FAA oversight. Notwithstanding, the participants of the study indicated that the FAA must apply its surveillance on a more standardized and consistent basis. They want to see this standardization in how FAA inspectors interpret regulations and practice the same quality of oversight for all repair stations, particularly those that are repeat violators and fail to comply with federal aviation regulations. They believed that when the FAA enforces standardization on a consistent basis, repair stations can become more efficient and safer in the performance of their scope of work for the U.S. commercial air transportation industry.

  16. Comparative Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Priorities for the Natural Environment: Observations from the First UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Iain Brown

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment can potentially provide an objective framework to synthesise and prioritise climate change risks to inform adaptation policy. However, there are significant challenges in the application of comparative risk assessment procedures to climate change, particularly for the natural environment. These challenges are evaluated with particular reference to the first statutory Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) and evidence review procedures used to guide policy for the UK government...

  17. Trust, Emotion, Sex, Politics, and Science: Surveying the Risk-Assessment Battlefield

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Slovic, Paul [Decision Research, Eugene, OR (United States)

    2001-07-01

    Risk management has become increasingly politicized and contentious. Polarized views, controversy, and conflict have become pervasive. Research has begun to provide a new perspective on this problem by demonstrating the complexity of the concept 'risk' and the inadequacies of the traditional view of risk assessment as a purely scientific enterprise. This paper argues that danger is real, but risk is socially constructed. Risk assessment is inherently subjective and represents a blending of science and judgment with important psychological, social, cultural, and political factors. In addition, our social and democratic institutions, remarkable as they are in many respects, breed distrust in the risk arena. Whoever controls the definition of risk controls the rational solution to the problem at hand. If risk is defined one way, then one option will rise to the top as the most cost-effective or the safest or the best. If it is defined another way, perhaps incorporating qualitative characteristics and other contextual factors, one will likely get a different ordering of action solutions. Defining risk is thus an exercise in power. Scientific literacy and public education are important, but they are not central to risk controversies. The public is not irrational. Their judgments about risk are influenced by emotion and affect in a way that is both simple and sophisticated. The same holds true for scientists. Public views are also influenced by world views, ideologies, and values; so are scientists' views, particularly when they are working at the limits of their expertise. The limitations of risk science, the importance and difficulty of maintaining trust, and the complex, sociopolitical nature of risk point to the need for a new approach-one that focuses upon introducing more public participation into both risk assessment and risk decision making in order to make the decision process more democratic, improve the relevance and quality of technical

  18. Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk—Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological c

  19. Development and evolution of risk assessment for food allergens

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Crevel, R.W.R.; Baumert, J.L.; Baka, A.; Houben, G.F.; Knulst, A.C.; Kruizinga, A.G.; Luccioli, S.; Taylor, S.L.; Madsen, C.B.

    2014-01-01

    The need to assess the risk from food allergens derives directly from the need to manage effectively this food safety hazard. Work spanning the last two decades dispelled the initial thinking that food allergens were so unique that the risk they posed was not amenable to established risk assessment

  20. Critical notes on microbiological risk assessment of food

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reij, M.W.; Schothorst, van M.

    2000-01-01

    Although numerous papers on Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) of food products have been published, a number of issues related to it remain unresolved. This paper explains the role of Microbiological Risk Assessment in the context of Risk Analysis as outlined by Codex Alimentarius. It reviews so