Rapid and accurate species tree estimation for phylogeographic investigations using replicated subsampling.

Science.gov (United States)

Hird, Sarah; Kubatko, Laura; Carstens, Bryan

2010-11-01

We describe a method for estimating species trees that relies on replicated subsampling of large data matrices. One application of this method is phylogeographic research, which has long depended on large datasets that sample intensively from the geographic range of the focal species; these datasets allow systematicists to identify cryptic diversity and understand how contemporary and historical landscape forces influence genetic diversity. However, analyzing any large dataset can be computationally difficult, particularly when newly developed methods for species tree estimation are used. Here we explore the use of replicated subsampling, a potential solution to the problem posed by large datasets, with both a simulation study and an empirical analysis. In the simulations, we sample different numbers of alleles and loci, estimate species trees using STEM, and compare the estimated to the actual species tree. Our results indicate that subsampling three alleles per species for eight loci nearly always results in an accurate species tree topology, even in cases where the species tree was characterized by extremely rapid divergence. Even more modest subsampling effort, for example one allele per species and two loci, was more likely than not (>50%) to identify the correct species tree topology, indicating that in nearly all cases, computing the majority-rule consensus tree from replicated subsampling provides a good estimate of topology. These results were supported by estimating the correct species tree topology and reasonable branch lengths for an empirical 10-locus great ape dataset. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Accurate Lithium-ion battery parameter estimation with continuous-time system identification methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xia, Bing; Zhao, Xin; Callafon, Raymond de; Garnier, Hugues; Nguyen, Truong; Mi, Chris

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Continuous-time system identification is applied in Lithium-ion battery modeling. • Continuous-time and discrete-time identification methods are compared in detail. • The instrumental variable method is employed to further improve the estimation. • Simulations and experiments validate the advantages of continuous-time methods. - Abstract: The modeling of Lithium-ion batteries usually utilizes discrete-time system identification methods to estimate parameters of discrete models. However, in real applications, there is a fundamental limitation of the discrete-time methods in dealing with sensitivity when the system is stiff and the storage resolutions are limited. To overcome this problem, this paper adopts direct continuous-time system identification methods to estimate the parameters of equivalent circuit models for Lithium-ion batteries. Compared with discrete-time system identification methods, the continuous-time system identification methods provide more accurate estimates to both fast and slow dynamics in battery systems and are less sensitive to disturbances. A case of a 2"n"d-order equivalent circuit model is studied which shows that the continuous-time estimates are more robust to high sampling rates, measurement noises and rounding errors. In addition, the estimation by the conventional continuous-time least squares method is further improved in the case of noisy output measurement by introducing the instrumental variable method. Simulation and experiment results validate the analysis and demonstrate the advantages of the continuous-time system identification methods in battery applications.

The Remote Food Photography Method accurately estimates dry powdered foods—the source of calories for many infants

Science.gov (United States)

Duhé, Abby F.; Gilmore, L. Anne; Burton, Jeffrey H.; Martin, Corby K.; Redman, Leanne M.

2016-01-01

Background Infant formula is a major source of nutrition for infants with over half of all infants in the United States consuming infant formula exclusively or in combination with breast milk. The energy in infant powdered formula is derived from the powder and not the water making it necessary to develop methods that can accurately estimate the amount of powder used prior to reconstitution. Objective To assess the use of the Remote Food Photography Method (RFPM) to accurately estimate the weight of infant powdered formula before reconstitution among the standard serving sizes. Methods For each serving size (1-scoop, 2-scoop, 3-scoop, and 4-scoop), a set of seven test bottles and photographs were prepared including the recommended gram weight of powdered formula of the respective serving size by the manufacturer, three bottles and photographs containing 15%, 10%, and 5% less powdered formula than recommended, and three bottles and photographs containing 5%, 10%, and 15% more powdered formula than recommended (n=28). Ratio estimates of the test photographs as compared to standard photographs were obtained using standard RFPM analysis procedures. The ratio estimates and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) data tables were used to generate food and nutrient information to provide the RFPM estimates. Statistical Analyses Performed Equivalence testing using the two one-sided t- test (TOST) approach was used to determine equivalence between the actual gram weights and the RFPM estimated weights for all samples, within each serving size, and within under-prepared and over-prepared bottles. Results For all bottles, the gram weights estimated by the RFPM were within 5% equivalence bounds with a slight under-estimation of 0.05 g (90% CI [−0.49, 0.40]; p<0.001) and mean percent error ranging between 0.32% and 1.58% among the four serving sizes. Conclusion The maximum observed mean error was an overestimation of 1.58% of powdered formula by the RFPM under

Estimating patient dose from CT exams that use automatic exposure control: Development and validation of methods to accurately estimate tube current values.

Science.gov (United States)

McMillan, Kyle; Bostani, Maryam; Cagnon, Christopher H; Yu, Lifeng; Leng, Shuai; McCollough, Cynthia H; McNitt-Gray, Michael F

2017-08-01

The vast majority of body CT exams are performed with automatic exposure control (AEC), which adapts the mean tube current to the patient size and modulates the tube current either angularly, longitudinally or both. However, most radiation dose estimation tools are based on fixed tube current scans. Accurate estimates of patient dose from AEC scans require knowledge of the tube current values, which is usually unavailable. The purpose of this work was to develop and validate methods to accurately estimate the tube current values prescribed by one manufacturer's AEC system to enable accurate estimates of patient dose. Methods were developed that took into account available patient attenuation information, user selected image quality reference parameters and x-ray system limits to estimate tube current values for patient scans. Methods consistent with AAPM Report 220 were developed that used patient attenuation data that were: (a) supplied by the manufacturer in the CT localizer radiograph and (b) based on a simulated CT localizer radiograph derived from image data. For comparison, actual tube current values were extracted from the projection data of each patient. Validation of each approach was based on data collected from 40 pediatric and adult patients who received clinically indicated chest (n = 20) and abdomen/pelvis (n = 20) scans on a 64 slice multidetector row CT (Sensation 64, Siemens Healthcare, Forchheim, Germany). For each patient dataset, the following were collected with Institutional Review Board (IRB) approval: (a) projection data containing actual tube current values at each projection view, (b) CT localizer radiograph (topogram) and (c) reconstructed image data. Tube current values were estimated based on the actual topogram (actual-topo) as well as the simulated topogram based on image data (sim-topo). Each of these was compared to the actual tube current values from the patient scan. In addition, to assess the accuracy of each method in estimating

Accurate estimation of the RMS emittance from single current amplifier data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stockli, Martin P.; Welton, R.F.; Keller, R.; Letchford, A.P.; Thomae, R.W.; Thomason, J.W.G.

2002-01-01

This paper presents the SCUBEEx rms emittance analysis, a self-consistent, unbiased elliptical exclusion method, which combines traditional data-reduction methods with statistical methods to obtain accurate estimates for the rms emittance. Rather than considering individual data, the method tracks the average current density outside a well-selected, variable boundary to separate the measured beam halo from the background. The average outside current density is assumed to be part of a uniform background and not part of the particle beam. Therefore the average outside current is subtracted from the data before evaluating the rms emittance within the boundary. As the boundary area is increased, the average outside current and the inside rms emittance form plateaus when all data containing part of the particle beam are inside the boundary. These plateaus mark the smallest acceptable exclusion boundary and provide unbiased estimates for the average background and the rms emittance. Small, trendless variations within the plateaus allow for determining the uncertainties of the estimates caused by variations of the measured background outside the smallest acceptable exclusion boundary. The robustness of the method is established with complementary variations of the exclusion boundary. This paper presents a detailed comparison between traditional data reduction methods and SCUBEEx by analyzing two complementary sets of emittance data obtained with a Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and an ISIS H - ion source

SpotCaliper: fast wavelet-based spot detection with accurate size estimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Püspöki, Zsuzsanna; Sage, Daniel; Ward, John Paul; Unser, Michael

2016-04-15

SpotCaliper is a novel wavelet-based image-analysis software providing a fast automatic detection scheme for circular patterns (spots), combined with the precise estimation of their size. It is implemented as an ImageJ plugin with a friendly user interface. The user is allowed to edit the results by modifying the measurements (in a semi-automated way), extract data for further analysis. The fine tuning of the detections includes the possibility of adjusting or removing the original detections, as well as adding further spots. The main advantage of the software is its ability to capture the size of spots in a fast and accurate way. http://bigwww.epfl.ch/algorithms/spotcaliper/ zsuzsanna.puspoki@epfl.ch Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Accurate Fuel Estimates using CAN Bus Data and 3D Maps

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Ove; Torp, Kristian

2018-01-01

The focus on reducing CO 2 emissions from the transport sector is larger than ever. Increasingly stricter reductions on fuel consumption and emissions are being introduced by the EU, e.g., to reduce the air pollution in many larger cities. Large sets of high-frequent GPS data from vehicles already...... the accuracy of fuel consumption estimates with up to 40% on hilly roads. There is only very little improvement of the high-precision (H3D) map over the simple 3D map. The fuel consumption estimates are most accurate on flat terrain with average fuel estimates of up to 99% accuracy. The fuel estimates are most...... exist. However, fuel consumption data is still rarely collected even though it is possible to measure the fuel consumption with high accuracy, e.g., using an OBD-II device and a smartphone. This paper, presents a method for comparing fuel-consumption estimates using the SIDRA TRIP model with real fuel...

Estimating Gravity Biases with Wavelets in Support of a 1-cm Accurate Geoid Model

Science.gov (United States)

Ahlgren, K.; Li, X.

2017-12-01

Systematic errors that reside in surface gravity datasets are one of the major hurdles in constructing a high-accuracy geoid model at high resolutions. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Geodetic Survey (NGS) has an extensive historical surface gravity dataset consisting of approximately 10 million gravity points that are known to have systematic biases at the mGal level (Saleh et al. 2013). As most relevant metadata is absent, estimating and removing these errors to be consistent with a global geopotential model and airborne data in the corresponding wavelength is quite a difficult endeavor. However, this is crucial to support a 1-cm accurate geoid model for the United States. With recently available independent gravity information from GRACE/GOCE and airborne gravity from the NGS Gravity for the Redefinition of the American Vertical Datum (GRAV-D) project, several different methods of bias estimation are investigated which utilize radial basis functions and wavelet decomposition. We estimate a surface gravity value by incorporating a satellite gravity model, airborne gravity data, and forward-modeled topography at wavelet levels according to each dataset's spatial wavelength. Considering the estimated gravity values over an entire gravity survey, an estimate of the bias and/or correction for the entire survey can be found and applied. In order to assess the accuracy of each bias estimation method, two techniques are used. First, each bias estimation method is used to predict the bias for two high-quality (unbiased and high accuracy) geoid slope validation surveys (GSVS) (Smith et al. 2013 & Wang et al. 2017). Since these surveys are unbiased, the various bias estimation methods should reflect that and provide an absolute accuracy metric for each of the bias estimation methods. Secondly, the corrected gravity datasets from each of the bias estimation methods are used to build a geoid model. The accuracy of each geoid model

The Remote Food Photography Method Accurately Estimates Dry Powdered Foods-The Source of Calories for Many Infants.

Science.gov (United States)

Duhé, Abby F; Gilmore, L Anne; Burton, Jeffrey H; Martin, Corby K; Redman, Leanne M

2016-07-01

Infant formula is a major source of nutrition for infants, with more than half of all infants in the United States consuming infant formula exclusively or in combination with breast milk. The energy in infant powdered formula is derived from the powder and not the water, making it necessary to develop methods that can accurately estimate the amount of powder used before reconstitution. Our aim was to assess the use of the Remote Food Photography Method to accurately estimate the weight of infant powdered formula before reconstitution among the standard serving sizes. For each serving size (1 scoop, 2 scoops, 3 scoops, and 4 scoops), a set of seven test bottles and photographs were prepared as follow: recommended gram weight of powdered formula of the respective serving size by the manufacturer; three bottles and photographs containing 15%, 10%, and 5% less powdered formula than recommended; and three bottles and photographs containing 5%, 10%, and 15% more powdered formula than recommended (n=28). Ratio estimates of the test photographs as compared to standard photographs were obtained using standard Remote Food Photography Method analysis procedures. The ratio estimates and the US Department of Agriculture data tables were used to generate food and nutrient information to provide the Remote Food Photography Method estimates. Equivalence testing using the two one-sided t tests approach was used to determine equivalence between the actual gram weights and the Remote Food Photography Method estimated weights for all samples, within each serving size, and within underprepared and overprepared bottles. For all bottles, the gram weights estimated by the Remote Food Photography Method were within 5% equivalence bounds with a slight underestimation of 0.05 g (90% CI -0.49 to 0.40; P<0.001) and mean percent error ranging between 0.32% and 1.58% among the four serving sizes. The maximum observed mean error was an overestimation of 1.58% of powdered formula by the Remote

A method to accurately estimate the muscular torques of human wearing exoskeletons by torque sensors.

Science.gov (United States)

Hwang, Beomsoo; Jeon, Doyoung

2015-04-09

In exoskeletal robots, the quantification of the user's muscular effort is important to recognize the user's motion intentions and evaluate motor abilities. In this paper, we attempt to estimate users' muscular efforts accurately using joint torque sensor which contains the measurements of dynamic effect of human body such as the inertial, Coriolis, and gravitational torques as well as torque by active muscular effort. It is important to extract the dynamic effects of the user's limb accurately from the measured torque. The user's limb dynamics are formulated and a convenient method of identifying user-specific parameters is suggested for estimating the user's muscular torque in robotic exoskeletons. Experiments were carried out on a wheelchair-integrated lower limb exoskeleton, EXOwheel, which was equipped with torque sensors in the hip and knee joints. The proposed methods were evaluated by 10 healthy participants during body weight-supported gait training. The experimental results show that the torque sensors are to estimate the muscular torque accurately in cases of relaxed and activated muscle conditions.

A Method to Accurately Estimate the Muscular Torques of Human Wearing Exoskeletons by Torque Sensors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Beomsoo Hwang

2015-04-01

Full Text Available In exoskeletal robots, the quantification of the user’s muscular effort is important to recognize the user’s motion intentions and evaluate motor abilities. In this paper, we attempt to estimate users’ muscular efforts accurately using joint torque sensor which contains the measurements of dynamic effect of human body such as the inertial, Coriolis, and gravitational torques as well as torque by active muscular effort. It is important to extract the dynamic effects of the user’s limb accurately from the measured torque. The user’s limb dynamics are formulated and a convenient method of identifying user-specific parameters is suggested for estimating the user’s muscular torque in robotic exoskeletons. Experiments were carried out on a wheelchair-integrated lower limb exoskeleton, EXOwheel, which was equipped with torque sensors in the hip and knee joints. The proposed methods were evaluated by 10 healthy participants during body weight-supported gait training. The experimental results show that the torque sensors are to estimate the muscular torque accurately in cases of relaxed and activated muscle conditions.

An Accurate FFPA-PSR Estimator Algorithm and Tool for Software Effort Estimation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Senthil Kumar Murugesan

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Software companies are now keen to provide secure software with respect to accuracy and reliability of their products especially related to the software effort estimation. Therefore, there is a need to develop a hybrid tool which provides all the necessary features. This paper attempts to propose a hybrid estimator algorithm and model which incorporates quality metrics, reliability factor, and the security factor with a fuzzy-based function point analysis. Initially, this method utilizes a fuzzy-based estimate to control the uncertainty in the software size with the help of a triangular fuzzy set at the early development stage. Secondly, the function point analysis is extended by the security and reliability factors in the calculation. Finally, the performance metrics are added with the effort estimation for accuracy. The experimentation is done with different project data sets on the hybrid tool, and the results are compared with the existing models. It shows that the proposed method not only improves the accuracy but also increases the reliability, as well as the security, of the product.

SATe-II: very fast and accurate simultaneous estimation of multiple sequence alignments and phylogenetic trees.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Kevin; Warnow, Tandy J; Holder, Mark T; Nelesen, Serita M; Yu, Jiaye; Stamatakis, Alexandros P; Linder, C Randal

2012-01-01

Highly accurate estimation of phylogenetic trees for large data sets is difficult, in part because multiple sequence alignments must be accurate for phylogeny estimation methods to be accurate. Coestimation of alignments and trees has been attempted but currently only SATé estimates reasonably accurate trees and alignments for large data sets in practical time frames (Liu K., Raghavan S., Nelesen S., Linder C.R., Warnow T. 2009b. Rapid and accurate large-scale coestimation of sequence alignments and phylogenetic trees. Science. 324:1561-1564). Here, we present a modification to the original SATé algorithm that improves upon SATé (which we now call SATé-I) in terms of speed and of phylogenetic and alignment accuracy. SATé-II uses a different divide-and-conquer strategy than SATé-I and so produces smaller more closely related subsets than SATé-I; as a result, SATé-II produces more accurate alignments and trees, can analyze larger data sets, and runs more efficiently than SATé-I. Generally, SATé is a metamethod that takes an existing multiple sequence alignment method as an input parameter and boosts the quality of that alignment method. SATé-II-boosted alignment methods are significantly more accurate than their unboosted versions, and trees based upon these improved alignments are more accurate than trees based upon the original alignments. Because SATé-I used maximum likelihood (ML) methods that treat gaps as missing data to estimate trees and because we found a correlation between the quality of tree/alignment pairs and ML scores, we explored the degree to which SATé's performance depends on using ML with gaps treated as missing data to determine the best tree/alignment pair. We present two lines of evidence that using ML with gaps treated as missing data to optimize the alignment and tree produces very poor results. First, we show that the optimization problem where a set of unaligned DNA sequences is given and the output is the tree and alignment of

Shear-wave elastography contributes to accurate tumour size estimation when assessing small breast cancers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mullen, R.; Thompson, J.M.; Moussa, O.; Vinnicombe, S.; Evans, A.

2014-01-01

Aim: To assess whether the size of peritumoural stiffness (PTS) on shear-wave elastography (SWE) for small primary breast cancers (≤15 mm) was associated with size discrepancies between grey-scale ultrasound (GSUS) and final histological size and whether the addition of PTS size to GSUS size might result in more accurate tumour size estimation when compared to final histological size. Materials and methods: A retrospective analysis of 86 consecutive patients between August 2011 and February 2013 who underwent breast-conserving surgery for tumours of size ≤15 mm at ultrasound was carried out. The size of PTS stiffness was compared to mean GSUS size, mean histological size, and the extent of size discrepancy between GSUS and histology. PTS size and GSUS were combined and compared to the final histological size. Results: PTS of >3 mm was associated with a larger mean final histological size (16 versus 11.3 mm, p < 0.001). PTS size of >3 mm was associated with a higher frequency of underestimation of final histological size by GSUS of >5 mm (63% versus 18%, p < 0.001). The combination of PTS and GSUS size led to accurate estimation of the final histological size (p = 0.03). The size of PTS was not associated with margin involvement (p = 0.27). Conclusion: PTS extending beyond 3 mm from the grey-scale abnormality is significantly associated with underestimation of tumour size of >5 mm for small invasive breast cancers. Taking into account the size of PTS also led to accurate estimation of the final histological size. Further studies are required to assess the relationship of the extent of SWE stiffness and margin status. - Highlights: • Peritumoural stiffness of greater than 3 mm was associated with larger tumour size. • Underestimation of tumour size by ultrasound was associated with peri-tumoural stiffness size. • Combining peri-tumoural stiffness size to ultrasound produced accurate tumour size estimation

Eddy covariance observations of methane and nitrous oxide emissions. Towards more accurate estimates from ecosystems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kroon, P.S.

2010-09-01

About 30% of the increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) are related to land use changes and agricultural activities. In order to select effective measures, knowledge is required about GHG emissions from these ecosystems and how these emissions are influenced by management and meteorological conditions. Accurate emission values are therefore needed for all three GHGs to compile the full GHG balance. However, the current annual estimates of CH4 and N2O emissions from ecosystems have significant uncertainties, even larger than 50%. The present study showed that an advanced technique, micrometeorological eddy covariance flux technique, could obtain more accurate estimates with uncertainties even smaller than 10%. The current regional and global trace gas flux estimates of CH4 and N2O are possibly seriously underestimated due to incorrect measurement procedures. Accurate measurements of both gases are really important since they could even contribute for more than two-third to the total GHG emission. For example: the total GHG emission of a dairy farm site was estimated at 16.10 3 kg ha -1 yr -1 in CO2-equivalents from which 25% and 45% was contributed by CH4 and N2O, respectively. About 60% of the CH4 emission was emitted by ditches and their bordering edges. These emissions are not yet included in the national inventory reports. We recommend including these emissions in coming reports.

Accurate Evaluation of Quantum Integrals

Science.gov (United States)

Galant, D. C.; Goorvitch, D.; Witteborn, Fred C. (Technical Monitor)

1995-01-01

Combining an appropriate finite difference method with Richardson's extrapolation results in a simple, highly accurate numerical method for solving a Schrodinger's equation. Important results are that error estimates are provided, and that one can extrapolate expectation values rather than the wavefunctions to obtain highly accurate expectation values. We discuss the eigenvalues, the error growth in repeated Richardson's extrapolation, and show that the expectation values calculated on a crude mesh can be extrapolated to obtain expectation values of high accuracy.

A Simple yet Accurate Method for the Estimation of the Biovolume of Planktonic Microorganisms.

Science.gov (United States)

Saccà, Alessandro

2016-01-01

Determining the biomass of microbial plankton is central to the study of fluxes of energy and materials in aquatic ecosystems. This is typically accomplished by applying proper volume-to-carbon conversion factors to group-specific abundances and biovolumes. A critical step in this approach is the accurate estimation of biovolume from two-dimensional (2D) data such as those available through conventional microscopy techniques or flow-through imaging systems. This paper describes a simple yet accurate method for the assessment of the biovolume of planktonic microorganisms, which works with any image analysis system allowing for the measurement of linear distances and the estimation of the cross sectional area of an object from a 2D digital image. The proposed method is based on Archimedes' principle about the relationship between the volume of a sphere and that of a cylinder in which the sphere is inscribed, plus a coefficient of 'unellipticity' introduced here. Validation and careful evaluation of the method are provided using a variety of approaches. The new method proved to be highly precise with all convex shapes characterised by approximate rotational symmetry, and combining it with an existing method specific for highly concave or branched shapes allows covering the great majority of cases with good reliability. Thanks to its accuracy, consistency, and low resources demand, the new method can conveniently be used in substitution of any extant method designed for convex shapes, and can readily be coupled with automated cell imaging technologies, including state-of-the-art flow-through imaging devices.

A Simple yet Accurate Method for the Estimation of the Biovolume of Planktonic Microorganisms.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alessandro Saccà

Full Text Available Determining the biomass of microbial plankton is central to the study of fluxes of energy and materials in aquatic ecosystems. This is typically accomplished by applying proper volume-to-carbon conversion factors to group-specific abundances and biovolumes. A critical step in this approach is the accurate estimation of biovolume from two-dimensional (2D data such as those available through conventional microscopy techniques or flow-through imaging systems. This paper describes a simple yet accurate method for the assessment of the biovolume of planktonic microorganisms, which works with any image analysis system allowing for the measurement of linear distances and the estimation of the cross sectional area of an object from a 2D digital image. The proposed method is based on Archimedes' principle about the relationship between the volume of a sphere and that of a cylinder in which the sphere is inscribed, plus a coefficient of 'unellipticity' introduced here. Validation and careful evaluation of the method are provided using a variety of approaches. The new method proved to be highly precise with all convex shapes characterised by approximate rotational symmetry, and combining it with an existing method specific for highly concave or branched shapes allows covering the great majority of cases with good reliability. Thanks to its accuracy, consistency, and low resources demand, the new method can conveniently be used in substitution of any extant method designed for convex shapes, and can readily be coupled with automated cell imaging technologies, including state-of-the-art flow-through imaging devices.

An Accurate Estimate of the Free Energy and Phase Diagram of All-DNA Bulk Fluids

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emanuele Locatelli

2018-04-01

Full Text Available We present a numerical study in which large-scale bulk simulations of self-assembled DNA constructs have been carried out with a realistic coarse-grained model. The investigation aims at obtaining a precise, albeit numerically demanding, estimate of the free energy for such systems. We then, in turn, use these accurate results to validate a recently proposed theoretical approach that builds on a liquid-state theory, the Wertheim theory, to compute the phase diagram of all-DNA fluids. This hybrid theoretical/numerical approach, based on the lowest-order virial expansion and on a nearest-neighbor DNA model, can provide, in an undemanding way, a parameter-free thermodynamic description of DNA associating fluids that is in semi-quantitative agreement with experiments. We show that the predictions of the scheme are as accurate as those obtained with more sophisticated methods. We also demonstrate the flexibility of the approach by incorporating non-trivial additional contributions that go beyond the nearest-neighbor model to compute the DNA hybridization free energy.

Fast and Accurate Video PQoS Estimation over Wireless Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emanuele Viterbo

2008-06-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a curve fitting technique for fast and accurate estimation of the perceived quality of streaming media contents, delivered within a wireless network. The model accounts for the effects of various network parameters such as congestion, radio link power, and video transmission bit rate. The evaluation of the perceived quality of service (PQoS is based on the well-known VQM objective metric, a powerful technique which is highly correlated to the more expensive and time consuming subjective metrics. Currently, PQoS is used only for offline analysis after delivery of the entire video content. Thanks to the proposed simple model, we can estimate in real time the video PQoS and we can rapidly adapt the content transmission through scalable video coding and bit rates in order to offer the best perceived quality to the end users. The designed model has been validated through many different measurements in realistic wireless environments using an ad hoc WiFi test bed.

Fast and accurate spectral estimation for online detection of partial broken bar in induction motors

Science.gov (United States)

Samanta, Anik Kumar; Naha, Arunava; Routray, Aurobinda; Deb, Alok Kanti

2018-01-01

In this paper, an online and real-time system is presented for detecting partial broken rotor bar (BRB) of inverter-fed squirrel cage induction motors under light load condition. This system with minor modifications can detect any fault that affects the stator current. A fast and accurate spectral estimator based on the theory of Rayleigh quotient is proposed for detecting the spectral signature of BRB. The proposed spectral estimator can precisely determine the relative amplitude of fault sidebands and has low complexity compared to available high-resolution subspace-based spectral estimators. Detection of low-amplitude fault components has been improved by removing the high-amplitude fundamental frequency using an extended-Kalman based signal conditioner. Slip is estimated from the stator current spectrum for accurate localization of the fault component. Complexity and cost of sensors are minimal as only a single-phase stator current is required. The hardware implementation has been carried out on an Intel i7 based embedded target ported through the Simulink Real-Time. Evaluation of threshold and detectability of faults with different conditions of load and fault severity are carried out with empirical cumulative distribution function.

Magnetic dipole moment estimation and compensation for an accurate attitude control in nano-satellite missions

Science.gov (United States)

Inamori, Takaya; Sako, Nobutada; Nakasuka, Shinichi

2011-06-01

Nano-satellites provide space access to broader range of satellite developers and attract interests as an application of the space developments. These days several new nano-satellite missions are proposed with sophisticated objectives such as remote-sensing and observation of astronomical objects. In these advanced missions, some nano-satellites must meet strict attitude requirements for obtaining scientific data or images. For LEO nano-satellite, a magnetic attitude disturbance dominates over other environmental disturbances as a result of small moment of inertia, and this effect should be cancelled for a precise attitude control. This research focuses on how to cancel the magnetic disturbance in orbit. This paper presents a unique method to estimate and compensate the residual magnetic moment, which interacts with the geomagnetic field and causes the magnetic disturbance. An extended Kalman filter is used to estimate the magnetic disturbance. For more practical considerations of the magnetic disturbance compensation, this method has been examined in the PRISM (Pico-satellite for Remote-sensing and Innovative Space Missions). This method will be also used for a nano-astrometry satellite mission. This paper concludes that use of the magnetic disturbance estimation and compensation are useful for nano-satellites missions which require a high accurate attitude control.

Development of Star Tracker System for Accurate Estimation of Spacecraft Attitude

Science.gov (United States)

2009-12-01

For a high- cost spacecraft with accurate pointing requirements, the use of a star tracker is the preferred method for attitude determination. The...solutions, however there are certain costs with using this algorithm. There are significantly more features a triangle can provide when compared to an...to the other. The non-rotating geocentric equatorial frame provides an inertial frame for the two-body problem of a satellite in orbit. In this

Voxel-based registration of simulated and real patient CBCT data for accurate dental implant pose estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Moreira, António H. J.; Queirós, Sandro; Morais, Pedro; Rodrigues, Nuno F.; Correia, André Ricardo; Fernandes, Valter; Pinho, A. C. M.; Fonseca, Jaime C.; Vilaça, João. L.

2015-03-01

The success of dental implant-supported prosthesis is directly linked to the accuracy obtained during implant's pose estimation (position and orientation). Although traditional impression techniques and recent digital acquisition methods are acceptably accurate, a simultaneously fast, accurate and operator-independent methodology is still lacking. Hereto, an image-based framework is proposed to estimate the patient-specific implant's pose using cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) and prior knowledge of implanted model. The pose estimation is accomplished in a threestep approach: (1) a region-of-interest is extracted from the CBCT data using 2 operator-defined points at the implant's main axis; (2) a simulated CBCT volume of the known implanted model is generated through Feldkamp-Davis-Kress reconstruction and coarsely aligned to the defined axis; and (3) a voxel-based rigid registration is performed to optimally align both patient and simulated CBCT data, extracting the implant's pose from the optimal transformation. Three experiments were performed to evaluate the framework: (1) an in silico study using 48 implants distributed through 12 tridimensional synthetic mandibular models; (2) an in vitro study using an artificial mandible with 2 dental implants acquired with an i-CAT system; and (3) two clinical case studies. The results shown positional errors of 67+/-34μm and 108μm, and angular misfits of 0.15+/-0.08° and 1.4°, for experiment 1 and 2, respectively. Moreover, in experiment 3, visual assessment of clinical data results shown a coherent alignment of the reference implant. Overall, a novel image-based framework for implants' pose estimation from CBCT data was proposed, showing accurate results in agreement with dental prosthesis modelling requirements.

Accurate Frequency Estimation Based On Three-Parameter Sine-Fitting With Three FFT Samples

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liu Xin

2015-09-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a simple DFT-based golden section searching algorithm (DGSSA for the single tone frequency estimation. Because of truncation and discreteness in signal samples, Fast Fourier Transform (FFT and Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT are inevitable to cause the spectrum leakage and fence effect which lead to a low estimation accuracy. This method can improve the estimation accuracy under conditions of a low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR and a low resolution. This method firstly uses three FFT samples to determine the frequency searching scope, then – besides the frequency – the estimated values of amplitude, phase and dc component are obtained by minimizing the least square (LS fitting error of three-parameter sine fitting. By setting reasonable stop conditions or the number of iterations, the accurate frequency estimation can be realized. The accuracy of this method, when applied to observed single-tone sinusoid samples corrupted by white Gaussian noise, is investigated by different methods with respect to the unbiased Cramer-Rao Low Bound (CRLB. The simulation results show that the root mean square error (RMSE of the frequency estimation curve is consistent with the tendency of CRLB as SNR increases, even in the case of a small number of samples. The average RMSE of the frequency estimation is less than 1.5 times the CRLB with SNR = 20 dB and N = 512.

49 CFR 375.409 - May household goods brokers provide estimates?

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false May household goods brokers provide estimates? 375... Estimating Charges § 375.409 May household goods brokers provide estimates? A household goods broker must not... there is a written agreement between the broker and you, the carrier, adopting the broker's estimate as...

Fast and accurate phylogenetic reconstruction from high-resolution whole-genome data and a novel robustness estimator.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Y; Rajan, V; Moret, B M E

2011-09-01

The rapid accumulation of whole-genome data has renewed interest in the study of genomic rearrangements. Comparative genomics, evolutionary biology, and cancer research all require models and algorithms to elucidate the mechanisms, history, and consequences of these rearrangements. However, even simple models lead to NP-hard problems, particularly in the area of phylogenetic analysis. Current approaches are limited to small collections of genomes and low-resolution data (typically a few hundred syntenic blocks). Moreover, whereas phylogenetic analyses from sequence data are deemed incomplete unless bootstrapping scores (a measure of confidence) are given for each tree edge, no equivalent to bootstrapping exists for rearrangement-based phylogenetic analysis. We describe a fast and accurate algorithm for rearrangement analysis that scales up, in both time and accuracy, to modern high-resolution genomic data. We also describe a novel approach to estimate the robustness of results-an equivalent to the bootstrapping analysis used in sequence-based phylogenetic reconstruction. We present the results of extensive testing on both simulated and real data showing that our algorithm returns very accurate results, while scaling linearly with the size of the genomes and cubically with their number. We also present extensive experimental results showing that our approach to robustness testing provides excellent estimates of confidence, which, moreover, can be tuned to trade off thresholds between false positives and false negatives. Together, these two novel approaches enable us to attack heretofore intractable problems, such as phylogenetic inference for high-resolution vertebrate genomes, as we demonstrate on a set of six vertebrate genomes with 8,380 syntenic blocks. A copy of the software is available on demand.

MIDAS robust trend estimator for accurate GPS station velocities without step detection

Science.gov (United States)

Blewitt, Geoffrey; Kreemer, Corné; Hammond, William C.; Gazeaux, Julien

2016-03-01

Automatic estimation of velocities from GPS coordinate time series is becoming required to cope with the exponentially increasing flood of available data, but problems detectable to the human eye are often overlooked. This motivates us to find an automatic and accurate estimator of trend that is resistant to common problems such as step discontinuities, outliers, seasonality, skewness, and heteroscedasticity. Developed here, Median Interannual Difference Adjusted for Skewness (MIDAS) is a variant of the Theil-Sen median trend estimator, for which the ordinary version is the median of slopes vij = (xj-xi)/(tj-ti) computed between all data pairs i > j. For normally distributed data, Theil-Sen and least squares trend estimates are statistically identical, but unlike least squares, Theil-Sen is resistant to undetected data problems. To mitigate both seasonality and step discontinuities, MIDAS selects data pairs separated by 1 year. This condition is relaxed for time series with gaps so that all data are used. Slopes from data pairs spanning a step function produce one-sided outliers that can bias the median. To reduce bias, MIDAS removes outliers and recomputes the median. MIDAS also computes a robust and realistic estimate of trend uncertainty. Statistical tests using GPS data in the rigid North American plate interior show ±0.23 mm/yr root-mean-square (RMS) accuracy in horizontal velocity. In blind tests using synthetic data, MIDAS velocities have an RMS accuracy of ±0.33 mm/yr horizontal, ±1.1 mm/yr up, with a 5th percentile range smaller than all 20 automatic estimators tested. Considering its general nature, MIDAS has the potential for broader application in the geosciences.

Improved Patient Size Estimates for Accurate Dose Calculations in Abdomen Computed Tomography

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Chang-Lae [Yonsei University, Wonju (Korea, Republic of)

2017-07-15

The radiation dose of CT (computed tomography) is generally represented by the CTDI (CT dose index). CTDI, however, does not accurately predict the actual patient doses for different human body sizes because it relies on a cylinder-shaped head (diameter : 16 cm) and body (diameter : 32 cm) phantom. The purpose of this study was to eliminate the drawbacks of the conventional CTDI and to provide more accurate radiation dose information. Projection radiographs were obtained from water cylinder phantoms of various sizes, and the sizes of the water cylinder phantoms were calculated and verified using attenuation profiles. The effective diameter was also calculated using the attenuation of the abdominal projection radiographs of 10 patients. When the results of the attenuation-based method and the geometry-based method shown were compared with the results of the reconstructed-axial-CT-image-based method, the effective diameter of the attenuation-based method was found to be similar to the effective diameter of the reconstructed-axial-CT-image-based method, with a difference of less than 3.8%, but the geometry-based method showed a difference of less than 11.4%. This paper proposes a new method of accurately computing the radiation dose of CT based on the patient sizes. This method computes and provides the exact patient dose before the CT scan, and can therefore be effectively used for imaging and dose control.

ASTRAL, DRAGON and SEDAN scores predict stroke outcome more accurately than physicians.

Science.gov (United States)

Ntaios, G; Gioulekas, F; Papavasileiou, V; Strbian, D; Michel, P

2016-11-01

ASTRAL, SEDAN and DRAGON scores are three well-validated scores for stroke outcome prediction. Whether these scores predict stroke outcome more accurately compared with physicians interested in stroke was investigated. Physicians interested in stroke were invited to an online anonymous survey to provide outcome estimates in randomly allocated structured scenarios of recent real-life stroke patients. Their estimates were compared to scores' predictions in the same scenarios. An estimate was considered accurate if it was within 95% confidence intervals of actual outcome. In all, 244 participants from 32 different countries responded assessing 720 real scenarios and 2636 outcomes. The majority of physicians' estimates were inaccurate (1422/2636, 53.9%). 400 (56.8%) of physicians' estimates about the percentage probability of 3-month modified Rankin score (mRS) > 2 were accurate compared with 609 (86.5%) of ASTRAL score estimates (P DRAGON score estimates (P DRAGON score estimates (P DRAGON and SEDAN scores predict outcome of acute ischaemic stroke patients with higher accuracy compared to physicians interested in stroke. © 2016 EAN.

Can genetic estimators provide robust estimates of the effective number of breeders in small populations?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marion Hoehn

Full Text Available The effective population size (N(e is proportional to the loss of genetic diversity and the rate of inbreeding, and its accurate estimation is crucial for the monitoring of small populations. Here, we integrate temporal studies of the gecko Oedura reticulata, to compare genetic and demographic estimators of N(e. Because geckos have overlapping generations, our goal was to demographically estimate N(bI, the inbreeding effective number of breeders and to calculate the N(bI/N(a ratio (N(a =number of adults for four populations. Demographically estimated N(bI ranged from 1 to 65 individuals. The mean reduction in the effective number of breeders relative to census size (N(bI/N(a was 0.1 to 1.1. We identified the variance in reproductive success as the most important variable contributing to reduction of this ratio. We used four methods to estimate the genetic based inbreeding effective number of breeders N(bI(gen and the variance effective populations size N(eV(gen estimates from the genotype data. Two of these methods - a temporal moment-based (MBT and a likelihood-based approach (TM3 require at least two samples in time, while the other two were single-sample estimators - the linkage disequilibrium method with bias correction LDNe and the program ONeSAMP. The genetic based estimates were fairly similar across methods and also similar to the demographic estimates excluding those estimates, in which upper confidence interval boundaries were uninformative. For example, LDNe and ONeSAMP estimates ranged from 14-55 and 24-48 individuals, respectively. However, temporal methods suffered from a large variation in confidence intervals and concerns about the prior information. We conclude that the single-sample estimators are an acceptable short-cut to estimate N(bI for species such as geckos and will be of great importance for the monitoring of species in fragmented landscapes.

Accurate estimation of motion blur parameters in noisy remote sensing image

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Xueyan; Wang, Lin; Shao, Xiaopeng; Wang, Huilin; Tao, Zhong

2015-05-01

The relative motion between remote sensing satellite sensor and objects is one of the most common reasons for remote sensing image degradation. It seriously weakens image data interpretation and information extraction. In practice, point spread function (PSF) should be estimated firstly for image restoration. Identifying motion blur direction and length accurately is very crucial for PSF and restoring image with precision. In general, the regular light-and-dark stripes in the spectrum can be employed to obtain the parameters by using Radon transform. However, serious noise existing in actual remote sensing images often causes the stripes unobvious. The parameters would be difficult to calculate and the error of the result relatively big. In this paper, an improved motion blur parameter identification method to noisy remote sensing image is proposed to solve this problem. The spectrum characteristic of noisy remote sensing image is analyzed firstly. An interactive image segmentation method based on graph theory called GrabCut is adopted to effectively extract the edge of the light center in the spectrum. Motion blur direction is estimated by applying Radon transform on the segmentation result. In order to reduce random error, a method based on whole column statistics is used during calculating blur length. Finally, Lucy-Richardson algorithm is applied to restore the remote sensing images of the moon after estimating blur parameters. The experimental results verify the effectiveness and robustness of our algorithm.

Accurate relative location estimates for the North Korean nuclear tests using empirical slowness corrections

Science.gov (United States)

Gibbons, S. J.; Pabian, F.; Näsholm, S. P.; Kværna, T.; Mykkeltveit, S.

2017-01-01

velocity gradients reduce the residuals, the relative location uncertainties and the sensitivity to the combination of stations used. The traveltime gradients appear to be overestimated for the regional phases, and teleseismic relative location estimates are likely to be more accurate despite an apparent lower precision. Calibrations for regional phases are essential given that smaller magnitude events are likely not to be recorded teleseismically. We discuss the implications for the absolute event locations. Placing the 2006 event under a local maximum of overburden at 41.293°N, 129.105°E would imply a location of 41.299°N, 129.075°E for the January 2016 event, providing almost optimal overburden for the later four events.

Fishing site mapping using local knowledge provides accurate and ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Accurate fishing ground maps are necessary for fisheries monitoring. In Velondriake locally managed marine area (LMMA) we observed that the nomenclature of shared fishing sites (FS) is villages dependent. Additionally, the level of illiteracy makes data collection more complicated, leading to data collectors improvising ...

Threshold Estimation of Generalized Pareto Distribution Based on Akaike Information Criterion for Accurate Reliability Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kang, Seunghoon; Lim, Woochul; Cho, Su-gil; Park, Sanghyun; Lee, Tae Hee [Hanyang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Minuk; Choi, Jong-su; Hong, Sup [Korea Research Insitute of Ships and Ocean Engineering, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-02-15

In order to perform estimations with high reliability, it is necessary to deal with the tail part of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) in greater detail compared to an overall CDF. The use of a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to model the tail part of a CDF is receiving more research attention with the goal of performing estimations with high reliability. Current studies on GPDs focus on ways to determine the appropriate number of sample points and their parameters. However, even if a proper estimation is made, it can be inaccurate as a result of an incorrect threshold value. Therefore, in this paper, a GPD based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC) is proposed to improve the accuracy of the tail model. The proposed method determines an accurate threshold value using the AIC with the overall samples before estimating the GPD over the threshold. To validate the accuracy of the method, its reliability is compared with that obtained using a general GPD model with an empirical CDF.

Threshold Estimation of Generalized Pareto Distribution Based on Akaike Information Criterion for Accurate Reliability Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, Seunghoon; Lim, Woochul; Cho, Su-gil; Park, Sanghyun; Lee, Tae Hee; Lee, Minuk; Choi, Jong-su; Hong, Sup

2015-01-01

In order to perform estimations with high reliability, it is necessary to deal with the tail part of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) in greater detail compared to an overall CDF. The use of a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to model the tail part of a CDF is receiving more research attention with the goal of performing estimations with high reliability. Current studies on GPDs focus on ways to determine the appropriate number of sample points and their parameters. However, even if a proper estimation is made, it can be inaccurate as a result of an incorrect threshold value. Therefore, in this paper, a GPD based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC) is proposed to improve the accuracy of the tail model. The proposed method determines an accurate threshold value using the AIC with the overall samples before estimating the GPD over the threshold. To validate the accuracy of the method, its reliability is compared with that obtained using a general GPD model with an empirical CDF

Incentives Increase Participation in Mass Dog Rabies Vaccination Clinics and Methods of Coverage Estimation Are Assessed to Be Accurate.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abel B Minyoo

2015-12-01

Full Text Available In this study we show that incentives (dog collars and owner wristbands are effective at increasing owner participation in mass dog rabies vaccination clinics and we conclude that household questionnaire surveys and the mark-re-sight (transect survey method for estimating post-vaccination coverage are accurate when all dogs, including puppies, are included. Incentives were distributed during central-point rabies vaccination clinics in northern Tanzania to quantify their effect on owner participation. In villages where incentives were handed out participation increased, with an average of 34 more dogs being vaccinated. Through economies of scale, this represents a reduction in the cost-per-dog of $0.47. This represents the price-threshold under which the cost of the incentive used must fall to be economically viable. Additionally, vaccination coverage levels were determined in ten villages through the gold-standard village-wide census technique, as well as through two cheaper and quicker methods (randomized household questionnaire and the transect survey. Cost data were also collected. Both non-gold standard methods were found to be accurate when puppies were included in the calculations, although the transect survey and the household questionnaire survey over- and under-estimated the coverage respectively. Given that additional demographic data can be collected through the household questionnaire survey, and that its estimate of coverage is more conservative, we recommend this method. Despite the use of incentives the average vaccination coverage was below the 70% threshold for eliminating rabies. We discuss the reasons and suggest solutions to improve coverage. Given recent international targets to eliminate rabies, this study provides valuable and timely data to help improve mass dog vaccination programs in Africa and elsewhere.

Incentives Increase Participation in Mass Dog Rabies Vaccination Clinics and Methods of Coverage Estimation Are Assessed to Be Accurate

Science.gov (United States)

Steinmetz, Melissa; Czupryna, Anna; Bigambo, Machunde; Mzimbiri, Imam; Powell, George; Gwakisa, Paul

2015-01-01

In this study we show that incentives (dog collars and owner wristbands) are effective at increasing owner participation in mass dog rabies vaccination clinics and we conclude that household questionnaire surveys and the mark-re-sight (transect survey) method for estimating post-vaccination coverage are accurate when all dogs, including puppies, are included. Incentives were distributed during central-point rabies vaccination clinics in northern Tanzania to quantify their effect on owner participation. In villages where incentives were handed out participation increased, with an average of 34 more dogs being vaccinated. Through economies of scale, this represents a reduction in the cost-per-dog of $0.47. This represents the price-threshold under which the cost of the incentive used must fall to be economically viable. Additionally, vaccination coverage levels were determined in ten villages through the gold-standard village-wide census technique, as well as through two cheaper and quicker methods (randomized household questionnaire and the transect survey). Cost data were also collected. Both non-gold standard methods were found to be accurate when puppies were included in the calculations, although the transect survey and the household questionnaire survey over- and under-estimated the coverage respectively. Given that additional demographic data can be collected through the household questionnaire survey, and that its estimate of coverage is more conservative, we recommend this method. Despite the use of incentives the average vaccination coverage was below the 70% threshold for eliminating rabies. We discuss the reasons and suggest solutions to improve coverage. Given recent international targets to eliminate rabies, this study provides valuable and timely data to help improve mass dog vaccination programs in Africa and elsewhere. PMID:26633821

Activity assays and immunoassays for plasma Renin and prorenin: information provided and precautions necessary for accurate measurement

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Campbell, Duncan J; Nussberger, Juerg; Stowasser, Michael

2009-01-01

into focus the differences in information provided by activity assays and immunoassays for renin and prorenin measurement and has drawn attention to the need for precautions to ensure their accurate measurement. CONTENT: Renin activity assays and immunoassays provide related but different information...... provided by these assays and of the precautions necessary to ensure their accuracy....

READSCAN: A fast and scalable pathogen discovery program with accurate genome relative abundance estimation

KAUST Repository

Naeem, Raeece

2012-11-28

Summary: READSCAN is a highly scalable parallel program to identify non-host sequences (of potential pathogen origin) and estimate their genome relative abundance in high-throughput sequence datasets. READSCAN accurately classified human and viral sequences on a 20.1 million reads simulated dataset in <27 min using a small Beowulf compute cluster with 16 nodes (Supplementary Material). Availability: http://cbrc.kaust.edu.sa/readscan Contact: or raeece.naeem@gmail.com Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. 2012 The Author(s).

READSCAN: A fast and scalable pathogen discovery program with accurate genome relative abundance estimation

KAUST Repository

Naeem, Raeece; Rashid, Mamoon; Pain, Arnab

2012-01-01

Summary: READSCAN is a highly scalable parallel program to identify non-host sequences (of potential pathogen origin) and estimate their genome relative abundance in high-throughput sequence datasets. READSCAN accurately classified human and viral sequences on a 20.1 million reads simulated dataset in <27 min using a small Beowulf compute cluster with 16 nodes (Supplementary Material). Availability: http://cbrc.kaust.edu.sa/readscan Contact: or raeece.naeem@gmail.com Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. 2012 The Author(s).

Modeling Site Heterogeneity with Posterior Mean Site Frequency Profiles Accelerates Accurate Phylogenomic Estimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Huai-Chun; Minh, Bui Quang; Susko, Edward; Roger, Andrew J

2018-03-01

Proteins have distinct structural and functional constraints at different sites that lead to site-specific preferences for particular amino acid residues as the sequences evolve. Heterogeneity in the amino acid substitution process between sites is not modeled by commonly used empirical amino acid exchange matrices. Such model misspecification can lead to artefacts in phylogenetic estimation such as long-branch attraction. Although sophisticated site-heterogeneous mixture models have been developed to address this problem in both Bayesian and maximum likelihood (ML) frameworks, their formidable computational time and memory usage severely limits their use in large phylogenomic analyses. Here we propose a posterior mean site frequency (PMSF) method as a rapid and efficient approximation to full empirical profile mixture models for ML analysis. The PMSF approach assigns a conditional mean amino acid frequency profile to each site calculated based on a mixture model fitted to the data using a preliminary guide tree. These PMSF profiles can then be used for in-depth tree-searching in place of the full mixture model. Compared with widely used empirical mixture models with $k$ classes, our implementation of PMSF in IQ-TREE (http://www.iqtree.org) speeds up the computation by approximately $k$/1.5-fold and requires a small fraction of the RAM. Furthermore, this speedup allows, for the first time, full nonparametric bootstrap analyses to be conducted under complex site-heterogeneous models on large concatenated data matrices. Our simulations and empirical data analyses demonstrate that PMSF can effectively ameliorate long-branch attraction artefacts. In some empirical and simulation settings PMSF provided more accurate estimates of phylogenies than the mixture models from which they derive.

How accurate are adolescents in portion-size estimation using the computer tool young adolescents' nutrition assessment on computer (YANA-C)?

OpenAIRE

Vereecken, Carine; Dohogne, Sophie; Covents, Marc; Maes, Lea

2010-01-01

Computer-administered questionnaires have received increased attention for large-scale population research on nutrition. In Belgium-Flanders, Young Adolescents' Nutrition Assessment on Computer (YANA-C) has been developed. In this tool, standardised photographs are available to assist in portion-size estimation. The purpose of the present study is to assess how accurate adolescents are in estimating portion sizes of food using YANA-C. A convenience sample, aged 11-17 years, estimated the amou...

GPS Water Vapor Tomography Based on Accurate Estimations of the GPS Tropospheric Parameters

Science.gov (United States)

Champollion, C.; Masson, F.; Bock, O.; Bouin, M.; Walpersdorf, A.; Doerflinger, E.; van Baelen, J.; Brenot, H.

2003-12-01

The Global Positioning System (GPS) is now a common technique for the retrieval of zenithal integrated water vapor (IWV). Further applications in meteorology need also slant integrated water vapor (SIWV) which allow to precisely define the high variability of tropospheric water vapor at different temporal and spatial scales. Only precise estimations of IWV and horizontal gradients allow the estimation of accurate SIWV. We present studies developed to improve the estimation of tropospheric water vapor from GPS data. Results are obtained from several field experiments (MAP, ESCOMPTE, OHM-CV, IHOP, .). First IWV are estimated using different GPS processing strategies and results are compared to radiosondes. The role of the reference frame and the a priori constraints on the coordinates of the fiducial and local stations is generally underestimated. It seems to be of first order in the estimation of the IWV. Second we validate the estimated horizontal gradients comparing zenith delay gradients and single site gradients. IWV, gradients and post-fit residuals are used to construct slant integrated water delays. Validation of the SIWV is under progress comparing GPS SIWV, Lidar measurements and high resolution meteorological models (Meso-NH). A careful analysis of the post-fit residuals is needed to separate tropospheric signal from multipaths. The slant tropospheric delays are used to study the 3D heterogeneity of the troposphere. We develop a tomographic software to model the three-dimensional distribution of the tropospheric water vapor from GPS data. The software is applied to the ESCOMPTE field experiment, a dense network of 17 dual frequency GPS receivers operated in southern France. Three inversions have been successfully compared to three successive radiosonde launches. Good resolution is obtained up to heights of 3000 m.

Fast, accurate, and robust frequency offset estimation based on modified adaptive Kalman filter in coherent optical communication system

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Yanfu; Xiang, Qian; Zhang, Qun; Zhou, Zhongqing; Jiang, Wen; He, Qianwen; Yao, Yong

2017-09-01

We propose a joint estimation scheme for fast, accurate, and robust frequency offset (FO) estimation along with phase estimation based on modified adaptive Kalman filter (MAKF). The scheme consists of three key modules: extend Kalman filter (EKF), lock detector, and FO cycle slip recovery. The EKF module estimates time-varying phase induced by both FO and laser phase noise. The lock detector module makes decision between acquisition mode and tracking mode and consequently sets the EKF tuning parameter in an adaptive manner. The third module can detect possible cycle slip in the case of large FO and make proper correction. Based on the simulation and experimental results, the proposed MAKF has shown excellent estimation performance featuring high accuracy, fast convergence, as well as the capability of cycle slip recovery.

Fast and accurate methods for phylogenomic analyses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Warnow Tandy

2011-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Species phylogenies are not estimated directly, but rather through phylogenetic analyses of different gene datasets. However, true gene trees can differ from the true species tree (and hence from one another due to biological processes such as horizontal gene transfer, incomplete lineage sorting, and gene duplication and loss, so that no single gene tree is a reliable estimate of the species tree. Several methods have been developed to estimate species trees from estimated gene trees, differing according to the specific algorithmic technique used and the biological model used to explain differences between species and gene trees. Relatively little is known about the relative performance of these methods. Results We report on a study evaluating several different methods for estimating species trees from sequence datasets, simulating sequence evolution under a complex model including indels (insertions and deletions, substitutions, and incomplete lineage sorting. The most important finding of our study is that some fast and simple methods are nearly as accurate as the most accurate methods, which employ sophisticated statistical methods and are computationally quite intensive. We also observe that methods that explicitly consider errors in the estimated gene trees produce more accurate trees than methods that assume the estimated gene trees are correct. Conclusions Our study shows that highly accurate estimations of species trees are achievable, even when gene trees differ from each other and from the species tree, and that these estimations can be obtained using fairly simple and computationally tractable methods.

Characterization of a signal recording system for accurate velocity estimation using a VISAR

Science.gov (United States)

Rav, Amit; Joshi, K. D.; Singh, Kulbhushan; Kaushik, T. C.

2018-02-01

The linearity of a signal recording system (SRS) in time as well as in amplitude are important for the accurate estimation of the free surface velocity history of a moving target during shock loading and unloading when measured using optical interferometers such as a velocity interferometer system for any reflector (VISAR). Signal recording being the first step in a long sequence of signal processes, the incorporation of errors due to nonlinearity, and low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) affects the overall accuracy and precision of the estimation of velocity history. In shock experiments the small duration (a few µs) of loading/unloading, the reflectivity of moving target surface, and the properties of optical components, control the amount of input of light to the SRS of a VISAR and this in turn affects the linearity and SNR of the overall measurement. These factors make it essential to develop in situ procedures for (i) minimizing the effect of signal induced noise and (ii) determine the linear region of operation for the SRS. Here we report on a procedure for the optimization of SRS parameters such as photodetector gain, optical power, aperture etc, so as to achieve a linear region of operation with a high SNR. The linear region of operation so determined has been utilized successfully to estimate the temporal history of the free surface velocity of the moving target in shock experiments.

Two-Step Time of Arrival Estimation for Pulse-Based Ultra-Wideband Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Vincent Poor

2008-05-01

Full Text Available In cooperative localization systems, wireless nodes need to exchange accurate position-related information such as time-of-arrival (TOA and angle-of-arrival (AOA, in order to obtain accurate location information. One alternative for providing accurate position-related information is to use ultra-wideband (UWB signals. The high time resolution of UWB signals presents a potential for very accurate positioning based on TOA estimation. However, it is challenging to realize very accurate positioning systems in practical scenarios, due to both complexity/cost constraints and adverse channel conditions such as multipath propagation. In this paper, a two-step TOA estimation algorithm is proposed for UWB systems in order to provide accurate TOA estimation under practical constraints. In order to speed up the estimation process, the first step estimates a coarse TOA of the received signal based on received signal energy. Then, in the second step, the arrival time of the first signal path is estimated by considering a hypothesis testing approach. The proposed scheme uses low-rate correlation outputs and is able to perform accurate TOA estimation in reasonable time intervals. The simulation results are presented to analyze the performance of the estimator.

Do group-specific equations provide the best estimates of stature?

Science.gov (United States)

Albanese, John; Osley, Stephanie E; Tuck, Andrew

2016-04-01

An estimate of stature can be used by a forensic anthropologist with the preliminary identification of an unknown individual when human skeletal remains are recovered. Fordisc is a computer application that can be used to estimate stature; like many other methods it requires the user to assign an unknown individual to a specific group defined by sex, race/ancestry, and century of birth before an equation is applied. The assumption is that a group-specific equation controls for group differences and should provide the best results most often. In this paper we assess the utility and benefits of using group-specific equations to estimate stature using Fordisc. Using the maximum length of the humerus and the maximum length of the femur from individuals with documented stature, we address the question: Do sex-, race/ancestry- and century-specific stature equations provide the best results when estimating stature? The data for our sample of 19th Century White males (n=28) were entered into Fordisc and stature was estimated using 22 different equation options for a total of 616 trials: 19th and 20th Century Black males, 19th and 20th Century Black females, 19th and 20th Century White females, 19th and 20th Century White males, 19th and 20th Century any, and 20th Century Hispanic males. The equations were assessed for utility in any one case (how many times the estimated range bracketed the documented stature) and in aggregate using 1-way ANOVA and other approaches. This group-specific equation that should have provided the best results was outperformed by several other equations for both the femur and humerus. These results suggest that group-specific equations do not provide better results for estimating stature while at the same time are more difficult to apply because an unknown must be allocated to a given group before stature can be estimated. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spot urine sodium measurements do not accurately estimate dietary sodium intake in chronic kidney disease12

Science.gov (United States)

Dougher, Carly E; Rifkin, Dena E; Anderson, Cheryl AM; Smits, Gerard; Persky, Martha S; Block, Geoffrey A; Ix, Joachim H

2016-01-01

Background: Sodium intake influences blood pressure and proteinuria, yet the impact on long-term outcomes is uncertain in chronic kidney disease (CKD). Accurate assessment is essential for clinical and public policy recommendations, but few large-scale studies use 24-h urine collections. Recent studies that used spot urine sodium and associated estimating equations suggest that they may provide a suitable alternative, but their accuracy in patients with CKD is unknown. Objective: We compared the accuracy of 4 equations [the Nerbass, INTERSALT (International Cooperative Study on Salt, Other Factors, and Blood Pressure), Tanaka, and Kawasaki equations] that use spot urine sodium to estimate 24-h sodium excretion in patients with moderate to advanced CKD. Design: We evaluated the accuracy of spot urine sodium to predict mean 24-h urine sodium excretion over 9 mo in 129 participants with stage 3–4 CKD. Spot morning urine sodium was used in 4 estimating equations. Bias, precision, and accuracy were assessed and compared across each equation. Results: The mean age of the participants was 67 y, 52% were female, and the mean estimated glomerular filtration rate was 31 ± 9 mL · min–1 · 1.73 m–2. The mean ± SD number of 24-h urine collections was 3.5 ± 0.8/participant, and the mean 24-h sodium excretion was 168.2 ± 67.5 mmol/d. Although the Tanaka equation demonstrated the least bias (mean: −8.2 mmol/d), all 4 equations had poor precision and accuracy. The INTERSALT equation demonstrated the highest accuracy but derived an estimate only within 30% of mean measured sodium excretion in only 57% of observations. Bland-Altman plots revealed systematic bias with the Nerbass, INTERSALT, and Tanaka equations, underestimating sodium excretion when intake was high. Conclusion: These findings do not support the use of spot urine specimens to estimate dietary sodium intake in patients with CKD and research studies enriched with patients with CKD. The parent data for this

Accurate and quantitative polarization-sensitive OCT by unbiased birefringence estimator with noise-stochastic correction

Science.gov (United States)

Kasaragod, Deepa; Sugiyama, Satoshi; Ikuno, Yasushi; Alonso-Caneiro, David; Yamanari, Masahiro; Fukuda, Shinichi; Oshika, Tetsuro; Hong, Young-Joo; Li, En; Makita, Shuichi; Miura, Masahiro; Yasuno, Yoshiaki

2016-03-01

Polarization sensitive optical coherence tomography (PS-OCT) is a functional extension of OCT that contrasts the polarization properties of tissues. It has been applied to ophthalmology, cardiology, etc. Proper quantitative imaging is required for a widespread clinical utility. However, the conventional method of averaging to improve the signal to noise ratio (SNR) and the contrast of the phase retardation (or birefringence) images introduce a noise bias offset from the true value. This bias reduces the effectiveness of birefringence contrast for a quantitative study. Although coherent averaging of Jones matrix tomography has been widely utilized and has improved the image quality, the fundamental limitation of nonlinear dependency of phase retardation and birefringence to the SNR was not overcome. So the birefringence obtained by PS-OCT was still not accurate for a quantitative imaging. The nonlinear effect of SNR to phase retardation and birefringence measurement was previously formulated in detail for a Jones matrix OCT (JM-OCT) [1]. Based on this, we had developed a maximum a-posteriori (MAP) estimator and quantitative birefringence imaging was demonstrated [2]. However, this first version of estimator had a theoretical shortcoming. It did not take into account the stochastic nature of SNR of OCT signal. In this paper, we present an improved version of the MAP estimator which takes into account the stochastic property of SNR. This estimator uses a probability distribution function (PDF) of true local retardation, which is proportional to birefringence, under a specific set of measurements of the birefringence and SNR. The PDF was pre-computed by a Monte-Carlo (MC) simulation based on the mathematical model of JM-OCT before the measurement. A comparison between this new MAP estimator, our previous MAP estimator [2], and the standard mean estimator is presented. The comparisons are performed both by numerical simulation and in vivo measurements of anterior and

Cystatin C-Based Equation Does Not Accurately Estimate the Glomerular Filtration in Japanese Living Kidney Donors.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsujimura, Kazuma; Ota, Morihito; Chinen, Kiyoshi; Adachi, Takayuki; Nagayama, Kiyomitsu; Oroku, Masato; Nishihira, Morikuni; Shiohira, Yoshiki; Iseki, Kunitoshi; Ishida, Hideki; Tanabe, Kazunari

2017-06-23

BACKGROUND Precise evaluation of a living donor's renal function is necessary to ensure adequate residual kidney function after donor nephrectomy. Our aim was to evaluate the feasibility of estimating glomerular filtration rate (GFR) using serum cystatin-C prior to kidney transplantation. MATERIAL AND METHODS Using the equations of the Japanese Society of Nephrology, we calculated the GFR using serum creatinine (eGFRcre) and cystatin C levels (eGFRcys) for 83 living kidney donors evaluated between March 2010 and March 2016. We compared eGFRcys and eGFRcre values against the creatinine clearance rate (CCr). RESULTS The study population included 27 males and 56 females. The mean eGFRcys, eGFRcre, and CCr were, 91.4±16.3 mL/min/1.73 m² (range, 59.9-128.9 mL/min/1.73 m²), 81.5±14.2 mL/min/1.73 m² (range, 55.4-117.5 mL/min/1.73 m²) and 108.4±21.6 mL/min/1.73 m² (range, 63.7-168.7 mL/min/1.73 m²), respectively. eGFRcys was significantly lower than CCr (p<0.001). The correlation coefficient between eGFRcys and CCr values was 0.466, and the mean difference between the two values was -17.0 (15.7%), with a root mean square error of 19.2. Thus, eGFRcre was significantly lower than CCr (p<0.001). The correlation coefficient between eGFRcre and CCr values was 0.445, and the mean difference between the two values was -26.9 (24.8%), with a root mean square error of 19.5. CONCLUSIONS Although eGFRcys provided a better estimation of GFR than eGFRcre, eGFRcys still did not provide an accurate measure of kidney function in Japanese living kidney donors.

A multiple regression analysis for accurate background subtraction in 99Tcm-DTPA renography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Middleton, G.W.; Thomson, W.H.; Davies, I.H.; Morgan, A.

1989-01-01

A technique for accurate background subtraction in 99 Tc m -DTPA renography is described. The technique is based on a multiple regression analysis of the renal curves and separate heart and soft tissue curves which together represent background activity. It is compared, in over 100 renograms, with a previously described linear regression technique. Results show that the method provides accurate background subtraction, even in very poorly functioning kidneys, thus enabling relative renal filtration and excretion to be accurately estimated. (author)

NUMATH: a nuclear material holdup estimator for unit operations and chemical processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krichinsky, A.M.

1982-01-01

NUMATH provides inventory estimation by utilizing previous inventory measurements, operating data, and, where available, on-line process measurements. For the present time, NUMATH's purpose is to provide a reasonable, near-real-time estimate of material inventory until accurate inventory determination can be obtained from chemical analysis. Ultimately, it is intended that NUMATH will further utilize on-line analyzers and more advanced calculational techniques to provide more accurate inventory determinations and estimates

A new geometric-based model to accurately estimate arm and leg inertial estimates.

Science.gov (United States)

Wicke, Jason; Dumas, Geneviève A

2014-06-03

Segment estimates of mass, center of mass and moment of inertia are required input parameters to analyze the forces and moments acting across the joints. The objectives of this study were to propose a new geometric model for limb segments, to evaluate it against criterion values obtained from DXA, and to compare its performance to five other popular models. Twenty five female and 24 male college students participated in the study. For the criterion measures, the participants underwent a whole body DXA scan, and estimates for segment mass, center of mass location, and moment of inertia (frontal plane) were directly computed from the DXA mass units. For the new model, the volume was determined from two standing frontal and sagittal photographs. Each segment was modeled as a stack of slices, the sections of which were ellipses if they are not adjoining another segment and sectioned ellipses if they were adjoining another segment (e.g. upper arm and trunk). Length of axes of the ellipses was obtained from the photographs. In addition, a sex-specific, non-uniform density function was developed for each segment. A series of anthropometric measurements were also taken by directly following the definitions provided of the different body segment models tested, and the same parameters determined for each model. Comparison of models showed that estimates from the new model were consistently closer to the DXA criterion than those from the other models, with an error of less than 5% for mass and moment of inertia and less than about 6% for center of mass location. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Accurate and fast methods to estimate the population mutation rate from error prone sequences

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miyamoto Michael M

2009-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The population mutation rate (θ remains one of the most fundamental parameters in genetics, ecology, and evolutionary biology. However, its accurate estimation can be seriously compromised when working with error prone data such as expressed sequence tags, low coverage draft sequences, and other such unfinished products. This study is premised on the simple idea that a random sequence error due to a chance accident during data collection or recording will be distributed within a population dataset as a singleton (i.e., as a polymorphic site where one sampled sequence exhibits a unique base relative to the common nucleotide of the others. Thus, one can avoid these random errors by ignoring the singletons within a dataset. Results This strategy is implemented under an infinite sites model that focuses on only the internal branches of the sample genealogy where a shared polymorphism can arise (i.e., a variable site where each alternative base is represented by at least two sequences. This approach is first used to derive independently the same new Watterson and Tajima estimators of θ, as recently reported by Achaz 1 for error prone sequences. It is then used to modify the recent, full, maximum-likelihood model of Knudsen and Miyamoto 2, which incorporates various factors for experimental error and design with those for coalescence and mutation. These new methods are all accurate and fast according to evolutionary simulations and analyses of a real complex population dataset for the California seahare. Conclusion In light of these results, we recommend the use of these three new methods for the determination of θ from error prone sequences. In particular, we advocate the new maximum likelihood model as a starting point for the further development of more complex coalescent/mutation models that also account for experimental error and design.

Accurate e/sup -/-He cross sections below 19 eV

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nesbet, R K [International Business Machines Corp., San Jose, CA (USA). Research Lab.

1979-04-14

Variational calculations of e/sup -/-He s- and p-wave phaseshifts, together with the Born formula for higher partial waves, are used to give the scattering amplitude to within one per cent estimated accuracy for energies less than 19 eV. Coefficients are given of cubic spline fits to auxiliary functions that provide smooth interpolation of the estimated accurate phaseshifts. Data given here make it possible to obtain the differential scattering cross section over the energy range considered from simple formulae.

Leveraging Two Kinect Sensors for Accurate Full-Body Motion Capture

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhiquan Gao

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Accurate motion capture plays an important role in sports analysis, the medical field and virtual reality. Current methods for motion capture often suffer from occlusions, which limits the accuracy of their pose estimation. In this paper, we propose a complete system to measure the pose parameters of the human body accurately. Different from previous monocular depth camera systems, we leverage two Kinect sensors to acquire more information about human movements, which ensures that we can still get an accurate estimation even when significant occlusion occurs. Because human motion is temporally constant, we adopt a learning analysis to mine the temporal information across the posture variations. Using this information, we estimate human pose parameters accurately, regardless of rapid movement. Our experimental results show that our system can perform an accurate pose estimation of the human body with the constraint of information from the temporal domain.

A Trace Data-Based Approach for an Accurate Estimation of Precise Utilization Maps in LTE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Almudena Sánchez

2017-01-01

Full Text Available For network planning and optimization purposes, mobile operators make use of Key Performance Indicators (KPIs, computed from Performance Measurements (PMs, to determine whether network performance needs to be improved. In current networks, PMs, and therefore KPIs, suffer from lack of precision due to an insufficient temporal and/or spatial granularity. In this work, an automatic method, based on data traces, is proposed to improve the accuracy of radio network utilization measurements collected in a Long-Term Evolution (LTE network. The method’s output is an accurate estimate of the spatial and temporal distribution for the cell utilization ratio that can be extended to other indicators. The method can be used to improve automatic network planning and optimization algorithms in a centralized Self-Organizing Network (SON entity, since potential issues can be more precisely detected and located inside a cell thanks to temporal and spatial precision. The proposed method is tested with real connection traces gathered in a large geographical area of a live LTE network and considers overload problems due to trace file size limitations, which is a key consideration when analysing a large network. Results show how these distributions provide a very detailed information of network utilization, compared to cell based statistics.

Estimating the state of a geophysical system with sparse observations: time delay methods to achieve accurate initial states for prediction

Science.gov (United States)

An, Zhe; Rey, Daniel; Ye, Jingxin; Abarbanel, Henry D. I.

2017-01-01

The problem of forecasting the behavior of a complex dynamical system through analysis of observational time-series data becomes difficult when the system expresses chaotic behavior and the measurements are sparse, in both space and/or time. Despite the fact that this situation is quite typical across many fields, including numerical weather prediction, the issue of whether the available observations are "sufficient" for generating successful forecasts is still not well understood. An analysis by Whartenby et al. (2013) found that in the context of the nonlinear shallow water equations on a β plane, standard nudging techniques require observing approximately 70 % of the full set of state variables. Here we examine the same system using a method introduced by Rey et al. (2014a), which generalizes standard nudging methods to utilize time delayed measurements. We show that in certain circumstances, it provides a sizable reduction in the number of observations required to construct accurate estimates and high-quality predictions. In particular, we find that this estimate of 70 % can be reduced to about 33 % using time delays, and even further if Lagrangian drifter locations are also used as measurements.

Accurate halo-galaxy mocks from automatic bias estimation and particle mesh gravity solvers

Science.gov (United States)

Vakili, Mohammadjavad; Kitaura, Francisco-Shu; Feng, Yu; Yepes, Gustavo; Zhao, Cheng; Chuang, Chia-Hsun; Hahn, ChangHoon

2017-12-01

Reliable extraction of cosmological information from clustering measurements of galaxy surveys requires estimation of the error covariance matrices of observables. The accuracy of covariance matrices is limited by our ability to generate sufficiently large number of independent mock catalogues that can describe the physics of galaxy clustering across a wide range of scales. Furthermore, galaxy mock catalogues are required to study systematics in galaxy surveys and to test analysis tools. In this investigation, we present a fast and accurate approach for generation of mock catalogues for the upcoming galaxy surveys. Our method relies on low-resolution approximate gravity solvers to simulate the large-scale dark matter field, which we then populate with haloes according to a flexible non-linear and stochastic bias model. In particular, we extend the PATCHY code with an efficient particle mesh algorithm to simulate the dark matter field (the FASTPM code), and with a robust MCMC method relying on the EMCEE code for constraining the parameters of the bias model. Using the haloes in the BigMultiDark high-resolution N-body simulation as a reference catalogue, we demonstrate that our technique can model the bivariate probability distribution function (counts-in-cells), power spectrum and bispectrum of haloes in the reference catalogue. Specifically, we show that the new ingredients permit us to reach percentage accuracy in the power spectrum up to k ∼ 0.4 h Mpc-1 (within 5 per cent up to k ∼ 0.6 h Mpc-1) with accurate bispectra improving previous results based on Lagrangian perturbation theory.

Kalman filter data assimilation: targeting observations and parameter estimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Bellsky, Thomas; Kostelich, Eric J; Mahalov, Alex

2014-06-01

This paper studies the effect of targeted observations on state and parameter estimates determined with Kalman filter data assimilation (DA) techniques. We first provide an analytical result demonstrating that targeting observations within the Kalman filter for a linear model can significantly reduce state estimation error as opposed to fixed or randomly located observations. We next conduct observing system simulation experiments for a chaotic model of meteorological interest, where we demonstrate that the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) with targeted observations based on largest ensemble variance is skillful in providing more accurate state estimates than the LETKF with randomly located observations. Additionally, we find that a hybrid ensemble Kalman filter parameter estimation method accurately updates model parameters within the targeted observation context to further improve state estimation.

Kalman filter data assimilation: Targeting observations and parameter estimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bellsky, Thomas; Kostelich, Eric J.; Mahalov, Alex

2014-01-01

This paper studies the effect of targeted observations on state and parameter estimates determined with Kalman filter data assimilation (DA) techniques. We first provide an analytical result demonstrating that targeting observations within the Kalman filter for a linear model can significantly reduce state estimation error as opposed to fixed or randomly located observations. We next conduct observing system simulation experiments for a chaotic model of meteorological interest, where we demonstrate that the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) with targeted observations based on largest ensemble variance is skillful in providing more accurate state estimates than the LETKF with randomly located observations. Additionally, we find that a hybrid ensemble Kalman filter parameter estimation method accurately updates model parameters within the targeted observation context to further improve state estimation

A practical method for accurate quantification of large fault trees

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Jong Soo; Cho, Nam Zin

2007-01-01

This paper describes a practical method to accurately quantify top event probability and importance measures from incomplete minimal cut sets (MCS) of a large fault tree. The MCS-based fault tree method is extensively used in probabilistic safety assessments. Several sources of uncertainties exist in MCS-based fault tree analysis. The paper is focused on quantification of the following two sources of uncertainties: (1) the truncation neglecting low-probability cut sets and (2) the approximation in quantifying MCSs. The method proposed in this paper is based on a Monte Carlo simulation technique to estimate probability of the discarded MCSs and the sum of disjoint products (SDP) approach complemented by the correction factor approach (CFA). The method provides capability to accurately quantify the two uncertainties and estimate the top event probability and importance measures of large coherent fault trees. The proposed fault tree quantification method has been implemented in the CUTREE code package and is tested on the two example fault trees

Are rapid population estimates accurate? A field trial of two different assessment methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Grais, Rebecca F; Coulombier, Denis; Ampuero, Julia; Lucas, Marcelino E S; Barretto, Avertino T; Jacquier, Guy; Diaz, Francisco; Balandine, Serge; Mahoudeau, Claude; Brown, Vincent

2006-09-01

Emergencies resulting in large-scale displacement often lead to populations resettling in areas where basic health services and sanitation are unavailable. To plan relief-related activities quickly, rapid population size estimates are needed. The currently recommended Quadrat method estimates total population by extrapolating the average population size living in square blocks of known area to the total site surface. An alternative approach, the T-Square, provides a population estimate based on analysis of the spatial distribution of housing units taken throughout a site. We field tested both methods and validated the results against a census in Esturro Bairro, Beira, Mozambique. Compared to the census (population: 9,479), the T-Square yielded a better population estimate (9,523) than the Quadrat method (7,681; 95% confidence interval: 6,160-9,201), but was more difficult for field survey teams to implement. Although applicable only to similar sites, several general conclusions can be drawn for emergency planning.

Sampling designs matching species biology produce accurate and affordable abundance indices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Grant Harris

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Wildlife biologists often use grid-based designs to sample animals and generate abundance estimates. Although sampling in grids is theoretically sound, in application, the method can be logistically difficult and expensive when sampling elusive species inhabiting extensive areas. These factors make it challenging to sample animals and meet the statistical assumption of all individuals having an equal probability of capture. Violating this assumption biases results. Does an alternative exist? Perhaps by sampling only where resources attract animals (i.e., targeted sampling, it would provide accurate abundance estimates more efficiently and affordably. However, biases from this approach would also arise if individuals have an unequal probability of capture, especially if some failed to visit the sampling area. Since most biological programs are resource limited, and acquiring abundance data drives many conservation and management applications, it becomes imperative to identify economical and informative sampling designs. Therefore, we evaluated abundance estimates generated from grid and targeted sampling designs using simulations based on geographic positioning system (GPS data from 42 Alaskan brown bears (Ursus arctos. Migratory salmon drew brown bears from the wider landscape, concentrating them at anadromous streams. This provided a scenario for testing the targeted approach. Grid and targeted sampling varied by trap amount, location (traps placed randomly, systematically or by expert opinion, and traps stationary or moved between capture sessions. We began by identifying when to sample, and if bears had equal probability of capture. We compared abundance estimates against seven criteria: bias, precision, accuracy, effort, plus encounter rates, and probabilities of capture and recapture. One grid (49 km2 cells and one targeted configuration provided the most accurate results. Both placed traps by expert opinion and moved traps between capture

Sampling designs matching species biology produce accurate and affordable abundance indices.

Science.gov (United States)

Harris, Grant; Farley, Sean; Russell, Gareth J; Butler, Matthew J; Selinger, Jeff

2013-01-01

Wildlife biologists often use grid-based designs to sample animals and generate abundance estimates. Although sampling in grids is theoretically sound, in application, the method can be logistically difficult and expensive when sampling elusive species inhabiting extensive areas. These factors make it challenging to sample animals and meet the statistical assumption of all individuals having an equal probability of capture. Violating this assumption biases results. Does an alternative exist? Perhaps by sampling only where resources attract animals (i.e., targeted sampling), it would provide accurate abundance estimates more efficiently and affordably. However, biases from this approach would also arise if individuals have an unequal probability of capture, especially if some failed to visit the sampling area. Since most biological programs are resource limited, and acquiring abundance data drives many conservation and management applications, it becomes imperative to identify economical and informative sampling designs. Therefore, we evaluated abundance estimates generated from grid and targeted sampling designs using simulations based on geographic positioning system (GPS) data from 42 Alaskan brown bears (Ursus arctos). Migratory salmon drew brown bears from the wider landscape, concentrating them at anadromous streams. This provided a scenario for testing the targeted approach. Grid and targeted sampling varied by trap amount, location (traps placed randomly, systematically or by expert opinion), and traps stationary or moved between capture sessions. We began by identifying when to sample, and if bears had equal probability of capture. We compared abundance estimates against seven criteria: bias, precision, accuracy, effort, plus encounter rates, and probabilities of capture and recapture. One grid (49 km(2) cells) and one targeted configuration provided the most accurate results. Both placed traps by expert opinion and moved traps between capture sessions

Sampling designs matching species biology produce accurate and affordable abundance indices

Science.gov (United States)

Farley, Sean; Russell, Gareth J.; Butler, Matthew J.; Selinger, Jeff

2013-01-01

Wildlife biologists often use grid-based designs to sample animals and generate abundance estimates. Although sampling in grids is theoretically sound, in application, the method can be logistically difficult and expensive when sampling elusive species inhabiting extensive areas. These factors make it challenging to sample animals and meet the statistical assumption of all individuals having an equal probability of capture. Violating this assumption biases results. Does an alternative exist? Perhaps by sampling only where resources attract animals (i.e., targeted sampling), it would provide accurate abundance estimates more efficiently and affordably. However, biases from this approach would also arise if individuals have an unequal probability of capture, especially if some failed to visit the sampling area. Since most biological programs are resource limited, and acquiring abundance data drives many conservation and management applications, it becomes imperative to identify economical and informative sampling designs. Therefore, we evaluated abundance estimates generated from grid and targeted sampling designs using simulations based on geographic positioning system (GPS) data from 42 Alaskan brown bears (Ursus arctos). Migratory salmon drew brown bears from the wider landscape, concentrating them at anadromous streams. This provided a scenario for testing the targeted approach. Grid and targeted sampling varied by trap amount, location (traps placed randomly, systematically or by expert opinion), and traps stationary or moved between capture sessions. We began by identifying when to sample, and if bears had equal probability of capture. We compared abundance estimates against seven criteria: bias, precision, accuracy, effort, plus encounter rates, and probabilities of capture and recapture. One grid (49 km2 cells) and one targeted configuration provided the most accurate results. Both placed traps by expert opinion and moved traps between capture sessions, which

A robust statistical estimation (RoSE) algorithm jointly recovers the 3D location and intensity of single molecules accurately and precisely

Science.gov (United States)

Mazidi, Hesam; Nehorai, Arye; Lew, Matthew D.

2018-02-01

In single-molecule (SM) super-resolution microscopy, the complexity of a biological structure, high molecular density, and a low signal-to-background ratio (SBR) may lead to imaging artifacts without a robust localization algorithm. Moreover, engineered point spread functions (PSFs) for 3D imaging pose difficulties due to their intricate features. We develop a Robust Statistical Estimation algorithm, called RoSE, that enables joint estimation of the 3D location and photon counts of SMs accurately and precisely using various PSFs under conditions of high molecular density and low SBR.

Can blind persons accurately assess body size from the voice?

Science.gov (United States)

Pisanski, Katarzyna; Oleszkiewicz, Anna; Sorokowska, Agnieszka

2016-04-01

Vocal tract resonances provide reliable information about a speaker's body size that human listeners use for biosocial judgements as well as speech recognition. Although humans can accurately assess men's relative body size from the voice alone, how this ability is acquired remains unknown. In this study, we test the prediction that accurate voice-based size estimation is possible without prior audiovisual experience linking low frequencies to large bodies. Ninety-one healthy congenitally or early blind, late blind and sighted adults (aged 20-65) participated in the study. On the basis of vowel sounds alone, participants assessed the relative body sizes of male pairs of varying heights. Accuracy of voice-based body size assessments significantly exceeded chance and did not differ among participants who were sighted, or congenitally blind or who had lost their sight later in life. Accuracy increased significantly with relative differences in physical height between men, suggesting that both blind and sighted participants used reliable vocal cues to size (i.e. vocal tract resonances). Our findings demonstrate that prior visual experience is not necessary for accurate body size estimation. This capacity, integral to both nonverbal communication and speech perception, may be present at birth or may generalize from broader cross-modal correspondences. © 2016 The Author(s).

Can endocranial volume be estimated accurately from external skull measurements in great-tailed grackles (Quiscalus mexicanus?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Corina J. Logan

2015-06-01

Full Text Available There is an increasing need to validate and collect data approximating brain size on individuals in the field to understand what evolutionary factors drive brain size variation within and across species. We investigated whether we could accurately estimate endocranial volume (a proxy for brain size, as measured by computerized tomography (CT scans, using external skull measurements and/or by filling skulls with beads and pouring them out into a graduated cylinder for male and female great-tailed grackles. We found that while females had higher correlations than males, estimations of endocranial volume from external skull measurements or beads did not tightly correlate with CT volumes. We found no accuracy in the ability of external skull measures to predict CT volumes because the prediction intervals for most data points overlapped extensively. We conclude that we are unable to detect individual differences in endocranial volume using external skull measurements. These results emphasize the importance of validating and explicitly quantifying the predictive accuracy of brain size proxies for each species and each sex.

Does bioelectrical impedance analysis accurately estimate the condition of threatened and endangered desert fish species?

Science.gov (United States)

Dibble, Kimberly L.; Yard, Micheal D.; Ward, David L.; Yackulic, Charles B.

2017-01-01

Bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) is a nonlethal tool with which to estimate the physiological condition of animals that has potential value in research on endangered species. However, the effectiveness of BIA varies by species, the methodology continues to be refined, and incidental mortality rates are unknown. Under laboratory conditions we tested the value of using BIA in addition to morphological measurements such as total length and wet mass to estimate proximate composition (lipid, protein, ash, water, dry mass, energy density) in the endangered Humpback Chub Gila cypha and Bonytail G. elegans and the species of concern Roundtail Chub G. robusta and conducted separate trials to estimate the mortality rates of these sensitive species. Although Humpback and Roundtail Chub exhibited no or low mortality in response to taking BIA measurements versus handling for length and wet-mass measurements, Bonytails exhibited 14% and 47% mortality in the BIA and handling experiments, respectively, indicating that survival following stress is species specific. Derived BIA measurements were included in the best models for most proximate components; however, the added value of BIA as a predictor was marginal except in the absence of accurate wet-mass data. Bioelectrical impedance analysis improved the R2 of the best percentage-based models by no more than 4% relative to models based on morphology. Simulated field conditions indicated that BIA models became increasingly better than morphometric models at estimating proximate composition as the observation error around wet-mass measurements increased. However, since the overall proportion of variance explained by percentage-based models was low and BIA was mostly a redundant predictor, we caution against the use of BIA in field applications for these sensitive fish species.

Digital photography provides a fast, reliable, and noninvasive method to estimate anthocyanin pigment concentration in reproductive and vegetative plant tissues.

Science.gov (United States)

Del Valle, José C; Gallardo-López, Antonio; Buide, Mª Luisa; Whittall, Justen B; Narbona, Eduardo

2018-03-01

Anthocyanin pigments have become a model trait for evolutionary ecology as they often provide adaptive benefits for plants. Anthocyanins have been traditionally quantified biochemically or more recently using spectral reflectance. However, both methods require destructive sampling and can be labor intensive and challenging with small samples. Recent advances in digital photography and image processing make it the method of choice for measuring color in the wild. Here, we use digital images as a quick, noninvasive method to estimate relative anthocyanin concentrations in species exhibiting color variation. Using a consumer-level digital camera and a free image processing toolbox, we extracted RGB values from digital images to generate color indices. We tested petals, stems, pedicels, and calyces of six species, which contain different types of anthocyanin pigments and exhibit different pigmentation patterns. Color indices were assessed by their correlation to biochemically determined anthocyanin concentrations. For comparison, we also calculated color indices from spectral reflectance and tested the correlation with anthocyanin concentration. Indices perform differently depending on the nature of the color variation. For both digital images and spectral reflectance, the most accurate estimates of anthocyanin concentration emerge from anthocyanin content-chroma ratio, anthocyanin content-chroma basic, and strength of green indices. Color indices derived from both digital images and spectral reflectance strongly correlate with biochemically determined anthocyanin concentration; however, the estimates from digital images performed better than spectral reflectance in terms of r 2 and normalized root-mean-square error. This was particularly noticeable in a species with striped petals, but in the case of striped calyces, both methods showed a comparable relationship with anthocyanin concentration. Using digital images brings new opportunities to accurately quantify the

Certified meter data managers provide potent tool : Utilities, customers benefit from accurate energy data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hall, V.

2004-02-01

The use of customer energy information and its importance in building business-to-business and business-to-consumer demographic profiles, and the role of certified meter data management agents, i.e. companies that have created infrastructures to manage large volumes of energy data that can be used to drive marketing to energy customers, is discussed. Short and long-term load management planning, distribution planning, outage management and demand response programs, efforts to streamline billing and create revenue-generating value-added services, are just some of the areas that can benefit from comprehensively collected and accurate consumer data. The article emphasizes the process of certification, the benefits certified meter data management companies can provide to utilities as well as to consumers, their role in disaster recovery management, and characteristics of the way such companies bring the benefits of their operations to their client utilities and consumers. 1 tab.

An accurate bound on tensor-to-scalar ratio and the scale of inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choudhury, Sayantan; Mazumdar, Anupam

2014-01-01

In this paper we provide an accurate bound on primordial gravitational waves, i.e. tensor-to-scalar ratio (r) for a general class of single-field models of inflation where inflation occurs always below the Planck scale, and the field displacement during inflation remains sub-Planckian. If inflation has to make connection with the real particle physics framework then it must be explained within an effective field theory description where it can be trustable below the UV cut-off of the scale of gravity. We provide an analytical estimation and estimate the largest possible r, i.e. r⩽0.12, for the field displacement less than the Planck cut-off

Robust and accurate vectorization of line drawings.

Science.gov (United States)

Hilaire, Xavier; Tombre, Karl

2006-06-01

This paper presents a method for vectorizing the graphical parts of paper-based line drawings. The method consists of separating the input binary image into layers of homogeneous thickness, skeletonizing each layer, segmenting the skeleton by a method based on random sampling, and simplifying the result. The segmentation method is robust with a best bound of 50 percent noise reached for indefinitely long primitives. Accurate estimation of the recognized vector's parameters is enabled by explicitly computing their feasibility domains. Theoretical performance analysis and expression of the complexity of the segmentation method are derived. Experimental results and comparisons with other vectorization systems are also provided.

Generalized estimating equations

CERN Document Server

Hardin, James W

2002-01-01

Although powerful and flexible, the method of generalized linear models (GLM) is limited in its ability to accurately deal with longitudinal and clustered data. Developed specifically to accommodate these data types, the method of Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) extends the GLM algorithm to accommodate the correlated data encountered in health research, social science, biology, and other related fields.Generalized Estimating Equations provides the first complete treatment of GEE methodology in all of its variations. After introducing the subject and reviewing GLM, the authors examine th

Improving Estimation Accuracy of Aggregate Queries on Data Cubes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pourabbas, Elaheh; Shoshani, Arie

2008-08-15

In this paper, we investigate the problem of estimation of a target database from summary databases derived from a base data cube. We show that such estimates can be derived by choosing a primary database which uses a proxy database to estimate the results. This technique is common in statistics, but an important issue we are addressing is the accuracy of these estimates. Specifically, given multiple primary and multiple proxy databases, that share the same summary measure, the problem is how to select the primary and proxy databases that will generate the most accurate target database estimation possible. We propose an algorithmic approach for determining the steps to select or compute the source databases from multiple summary databases, which makes use of the principles of information entropy. We show that the source databases with the largest number of cells in common provide the more accurate estimates. We prove that this is consistent with maximizing the entropy. We provide some experimental results on the accuracy of the target database estimation in order to verify our results.

An Accurate Computational Tool for Performance Estimation of FSO Communication Links over Weak to Strong Atmospheric Turbulent Channels

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Theodore D. Katsilieris

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The terrestrial optical wireless communication links have attracted significant research and commercial worldwide interest over the last few years due to the fact that they offer very high and secure data rate transmission with relatively low installation and operational costs, and without need of licensing. However, since the propagation path of the information signal, i.e., the laser beam, is the atmosphere, their effectivity affects the atmospheric conditions strongly in the specific area. Thus, system performance depends significantly on the rain, the fog, the hail, the atmospheric turbulence, etc. Due to the influence of these effects, it is necessary to study, theoretically and numerically, very carefully before the installation of such a communication system. In this work, we present exactly and accurately approximate mathematical expressions for the estimation of the average capacity and the outage probability performance metrics, as functions of the link’s parameters, the transmitted power, the attenuation due to the fog, the ambient noise and the atmospheric turbulence phenomenon. The latter causes the scintillation effect, which results in random and fast fluctuations of the irradiance at the receiver’s end. These fluctuations can be studied accurately with statistical methods. Thus, in this work, we use either the lognormal or the gamma–gamma distribution for weak or moderate to strong turbulence conditions, respectively. Moreover, using the derived mathematical expressions, we design, accomplish and present a computational tool for the estimation of these systems’ performances, while also taking into account the parameter of the link and the atmospheric conditions. Furthermore, in order to increase the accuracy of the presented tool, for the cases where the obtained analytical mathematical expressions are complex, the performance results are verified with the numerical estimation of the appropriate integrals. Finally, using

Maximum-likelihood estimation of recent shared ancestry (ERSA).

Science.gov (United States)

Huff, Chad D; Witherspoon, David J; Simonson, Tatum S; Xing, Jinchuan; Watkins, W Scott; Zhang, Yuhua; Tuohy, Therese M; Neklason, Deborah W; Burt, Randall W; Guthery, Stephen L; Woodward, Scott R; Jorde, Lynn B

2011-05-01

Accurate estimation of recent shared ancestry is important for genetics, evolution, medicine, conservation biology, and forensics. Established methods estimate kinship accurately for first-degree through third-degree relatives. We demonstrate that chromosomal segments shared by two individuals due to identity by descent (IBD) provide much additional information about shared ancestry. We developed a maximum-likelihood method for the estimation of recent shared ancestry (ERSA) from the number and lengths of IBD segments derived from high-density SNP or whole-genome sequence data. We used ERSA to estimate relationships from SNP genotypes in 169 individuals from three large, well-defined human pedigrees. ERSA is accurate to within one degree of relationship for 97% of first-degree through fifth-degree relatives and 80% of sixth-degree and seventh-degree relatives. We demonstrate that ERSA's statistical power approaches the maximum theoretical limit imposed by the fact that distant relatives frequently share no DNA through a common ancestor. ERSA greatly expands the range of relationships that can be estimated from genetic data and is implemented in a freely available software package.

Daily FOUR score assessment provides accurate prognosis of long-term outcome in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.

Science.gov (United States)

Weiss, N; Venot, M; Verdonk, F; Chardon, A; Le Guennec, L; Llerena, M C; Raimbourg, Q; Taldir, G; Luque, Y; Fagon, J-Y; Guerot, E; Diehl, J-L

2015-05-01

The accurate prediction of outcome after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is of major importance. The recently described Full Outline of UnResponsiveness (FOUR) is well adapted to mechanically ventilated patients and does not depend on verbal response. To evaluate the ability of FOUR assessed by intensivists to accurately predict outcome in OHCA. We prospectively identified patients admitted for OHCA with a Glasgow Coma Scale below 8. Neurological assessment was performed daily. Outcome was evaluated at 6 months using Glasgow-Pittsburgh Cerebral Performance Categories (GP-CPC). Eighty-five patients were included. At 6 months, 19 patients (22%) had a favorable outcome, GP-CPC 1-2, and 66 (78%) had an unfavorable outcome, GP-CPC 3-5. Compared to both brainstem responses at day 3 and evolution of Glasgow Coma Scale, evolution of FOUR score over the three first days was able to predict unfavorable outcome more precisely. Thus, absence of improvement or worsening from day 1 to day 3 of FOUR had 0.88 (0.79-0.97) specificity, 0.71 (0.66-0.76) sensitivity, 0.94 (0.84-1.00) PPV and 0.54 (0.49-0.59) NPV to predict unfavorable outcome. Similarly, the brainstem response of FOUR score at 0 evaluated at day 3 had 0.94 (0.89-0.99) specificity, 0.60 (0.50-0.70) sensitivity, 0.96 (0.92-1.00) PPV and 0.47 (0.37-0.57) NPV to predict unfavorable outcome. The absence of improvement or worsening from day 1 to day 3 of FOUR evaluated by intensivists provides an accurate prognosis of poor neurological outcome in OHCA. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Towards accurate emergency response behavior

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sargent, T.O.

1981-01-01

Nuclear reactor operator emergency response behavior has persisted as a training problem through lack of information. The industry needs an accurate definition of operator behavior in adverse stress conditions, and training methods which will produce the desired behavior. Newly assembled information from fifty years of research into human behavior in both high and low stress provides a more accurate definition of appropriate operator response, and supports training methods which will produce the needed control room behavior. The research indicates that operator response in emergencies is divided into two modes, conditioned behavior and knowledge based behavior. Methods which assure accurate conditioned behavior, and provide for the recovery of knowledge based behavior, are described in detail

Accurate and efficient calculation of response times for groundwater flow

Science.gov (United States)

Carr, Elliot J.; Simpson, Matthew J.

2018-03-01

We study measures of the amount of time required for transient flow in heterogeneous porous media to effectively reach steady state, also known as the response time. Here, we develop a new approach that extends the concept of mean action time. Previous applications of the theory of mean action time to estimate the response time use the first two central moments of the probability density function associated with the transition from the initial condition, at t = 0, to the steady state condition that arises in the long time limit, as t → ∞ . This previous approach leads to a computationally convenient estimation of the response time, but the accuracy can be poor. Here, we outline a powerful extension using the first k raw moments, showing how to produce an extremely accurate estimate by making use of asymptotic properties of the cumulative distribution function. Results are validated using an existing laboratory-scale data set describing flow in a homogeneous porous medium. In addition, we demonstrate how the results also apply to flow in heterogeneous porous media. Overall, the new method is: (i) extremely accurate; and (ii) computationally inexpensive. In fact, the computational cost of the new method is orders of magnitude less than the computational effort required to study the response time by solving the transient flow equation. Furthermore, the approach provides a rigorous mathematical connection with the heuristic argument that the response time for flow in a homogeneous porous medium is proportional to L2 / D , where L is a relevant length scale, and D is the aquifer diffusivity. Here, we extend such heuristic arguments by providing a clear mathematical definition of the proportionality constant.

Effect of survey design and catch rate estimation on total catch estimates in Chinook salmon fisheries

Science.gov (United States)

McCormick, Joshua L.; Quist, Michael C.; Schill, Daniel J.

2012-01-01

Roving–roving and roving–access creel surveys are the primary techniques used to obtain information on harvest of Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha in Idaho sport fisheries. Once interviews are conducted using roving–roving or roving–access survey designs, mean catch rate can be estimated with the ratio-of-means (ROM) estimator, the mean-of-ratios (MOR) estimator, or the MOR estimator with exclusion of short-duration (≤0.5 h) trips. Our objective was to examine the relative bias and precision of total catch estimates obtained from use of the two survey designs and three catch rate estimators for Idaho Chinook salmon fisheries. Information on angling populations was obtained by direct visual observation of portions of Chinook salmon fisheries in three Idaho river systems over an 18-d period. Based on data from the angling populations, Monte Carlo simulations were performed to evaluate the properties of the catch rate estimators and survey designs. Among the three estimators, the ROM estimator provided the most accurate and precise estimates of mean catch rate and total catch for both roving–roving and roving–access surveys. On average, the root mean square error of simulated total catch estimates was 1.42 times greater and relative bias was 160.13 times greater for roving–roving surveys than for roving–access surveys. Length-of-stay bias and nonstationary catch rates in roving–roving surveys both appeared to affect catch rate and total catch estimates. Our results suggest that use of the ROM estimator in combination with an estimate of angler effort provided the least biased and most precise estimates of total catch for both survey designs. However, roving–access surveys were more accurate than roving–roving surveys for Chinook salmon fisheries in Idaho.

Raman spectroscopy for highly accurate estimation of the age of refrigerated porcine muscle

Science.gov (United States)

Timinis, Constantinos; Pitris, Costas

2016-03-01

The high water content of meat, combined with all the nutrients it contains, make it vulnerable to spoilage at all stages of production and storage even when refrigerated at 5 °C. A non-destructive and in situ tool for meat sample testing, which could provide an accurate indication of the storage time of meat, would be very useful for the control of meat quality as well as for consumer safety. The proposed solution is based on Raman spectroscopy which is non-invasive and can be applied in situ. For the purposes of this project, 42 meat samples from 14 animals were obtained and three Raman spectra per sample were collected every two days for two weeks. The spectra were subsequently processed and the sample age was calculated using a set of linear differential equations. In addition, the samples were classified in categories corresponding to the age in 2-day steps (i.e., 0, 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12 or 14 days old), using linear discriminant analysis and cross-validation. Contrary to other studies, where the samples were simply grouped into two categories (higher or lower quality, suitable or unsuitable for human consumption, etc.), in this study, the age was predicted with a mean error of ~ 1 day (20%) or classified, in 2-day steps, with 100% accuracy. Although Raman spectroscopy has been used in the past for the analysis of meat samples, the proposed methodology has resulted in a prediction of the sample age far more accurately than any report in the literature.

Reservoir evaluation of thin-bedded turbidites and hydrocarbon pore thickness estimation for an accurate quantification of resource

Science.gov (United States)

Omoniyi, Bayonle; Stow, Dorrik

2016-04-01

One of the major challenges in the assessment of and production from turbidite reservoirs is to take full account of thin and medium-bedded turbidites (succession, they can go unnoticed by conventional analysis and so negatively impact on reserve estimation, particularly in fields producing from prolific thick-bedded turbidite reservoirs. Field development plans often take little note of such thin beds, which are therefore bypassed by mainstream production. In fact, the trapped and bypassed fluids can be vital where maximising field value and optimising production are key business drivers. We have studied in detail, a succession of thin-bedded turbidites associated with thicker-bedded reservoir facies in the North Brae Field, UKCS, using a combination of conventional logs and cores to assess the significance of thin-bedded turbidites in computing hydrocarbon pore thickness (HPT). This quantity, being an indirect measure of thickness, is critical for an accurate estimation of original-oil-in-place (OOIP). By using a combination of conventional and unconventional logging analysis techniques, we obtain three different results for the reservoir intervals studied. These results include estimated net sand thickness, average sand thickness, and their distribution trend within a 3D structural grid. The net sand thickness varies from 205 to 380 ft, and HPT ranges from 21.53 to 39.90 ft. We observe that an integrated approach (neutron-density cross plots conditioned to cores) to HPT quantification reduces the associated uncertainties significantly, resulting in estimation of 96% of actual HPT. Further work will focus on assessing the 3D dynamic connectivity of the low-pay sands with the surrounding thick-bedded turbidite facies.

A different interpretation of Einstein's viscosity equation provides accurate representations of the behavior of hydrophilic solutes to high concentrations.

Science.gov (United States)

Zavitsas, Andreas A

2012-08-23

Viscosities of aqueous solutions of many highly soluble hydrophilic solutes with hydroxyl and amino groups are examined with a focus on improving the concentration range over which Einstein's relationship between solution viscosity and solute volume, V, is applicable accurately. V is the hydrodynamic effective volume of the solute, including any water strongly bound to it and acting as a single entity with it. The widespread practice is to relate the relative viscosity of solute to solvent, η/η(0), to V/V(tot), where V(tot) is the total volume of the solution. For solutions that are not infinitely dilute, it is shown that the volume ratio must be expressed as V/V(0), where V(0) = V(tot) - V. V(0) is the volume of water not bound to the solute, the "free" water solvent. At infinite dilution, V/V(0) = V/V(tot). For the solutions examined, the proportionality constant between the relative viscosity and volume ratio is shown to be 2.9, rather than the 2.5 commonly used. To understand the phenomena relating to viscosity, the hydrodynamic effective volume of water is important. It is estimated to be between 54 and 85 cm(3). With the above interpretations of Einstein's equation, which are consistent with his stated reasoning, the relation between the viscosity and volume ratio remains accurate to much higher concentrations than those attainable with any of the other relations examined that express the volume ratio as V/V(tot).

How accurate are adolescents in portion-size estimation using the computer tool Young Adolescents' Nutrition Assessment on Computer (YANA-C)?

Science.gov (United States)

Vereecken, Carine; Dohogne, Sophie; Covents, Marc; Maes, Lea

2010-06-01

Computer-administered questionnaires have received increased attention for large-scale population research on nutrition. In Belgium-Flanders, Young Adolescents' Nutrition Assessment on Computer (YANA-C) has been developed. In this tool, standardised photographs are available to assist in portion-size estimation. The purpose of the present study is to assess how accurate adolescents are in estimating portion sizes of food using YANA-C. A convenience sample, aged 11-17 years, estimated the amounts of ten commonly consumed foods (breakfast cereals, French fries, pasta, rice, apple sauce, carrots and peas, crisps, creamy velouté, red cabbage, and peas). Two procedures were followed: (1) short-term recall: adolescents (n 73) self-served their usual portions of the ten foods and estimated the amounts later the same day; (2) real-time perception: adolescents (n 128) estimated two sets (different portions) of pre-weighed portions displayed near the computer. Self-served portions were, on average, 8 % underestimated; significant underestimates were found for breakfast cereals, French fries, peas, and carrots and peas. Spearman's correlations between the self-served and estimated weights varied between 0.51 and 0.84, with an average of 0.72. The kappa statistics were moderate (>0.4) for all but one item. Pre-weighed portions were, on average, 15 % underestimated, with significant underestimates for fourteen of the twenty portions. Photographs of food items can serve as a good aid in ranking subjects; however, to assess the actual intake at a group level, underestimation must be considered.

Velocity Estimation of the Main Portal Vein with Transverse Oscillation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brandt, Andreas Hjelm; Hansen, Kristoffer Lindskov; Nielsen, Michael Bachmann

2015-01-01

This study evaluates if Transverse Oscillation (TO) can provide reliable and accurate peak velocity estimates of blood flow the main portal vein. TO was evaluated against the recommended and most widely used technique for portal flow estimation, Spectral Doppler Ultrasound (SDU). The main portal...

Do wavelet filters provide more accurate estimates of reverberation times at low frequencies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sobreira Seoane, Manuel A.; Pérez Cabo, David; Agerkvist, Finn T.

2016-01-01

It has been amply demonstrated in the literature that it is not possible to measure acoustic decays without significant errors for low BT values (narrow filters and or low reverberation times). Recently, it has been shown how the main source of distortion in the time envelope of the acoustic deca...

Software project estimation the fundamentals for providing high quality information to decision makers

CERN Document Server

Abran, Alain

2015-01-01

Software projects are often late and over-budget and this leads to major problems for software customers. Clearly, there is a serious issue in estimating a realistic, software project budget. Furthermore, generic estimation models cannot be trusted to provide credible estimates for projects as complex as software projects. This book presents a number of examples using data collected over the years from various organizations building software. It also presents an overview of the non-for-profit organization, which collects data on software projects, the International Software Benchmarking Stan

Estimates of economic burden of providing inpatient care in childhood rotavirus gastroenteritis from Malaysia.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Way Seah; Poo, Muhammad Izzuddin; Nagaraj, Shyamala

2007-12-01

To estimate the cost of an episode of inpatient care and the economic burden of hospitalisation for childhood rotavirus gastroenteritis (GE) in Malaysia. A 12-month prospective, hospital-based study on children less than 14 years of age with rotavirus GE, admitted to University of Malaya Medical Centre, Kuala Lumpur, was conducted in 2002. Data on human resource expenditure, costs of investigations, treatment and consumables were collected. Published estimates on rotavirus disease incidence in Malaysia were searched. Economic burden of hospital care for rotavirus GE in Malaysia was estimated by multiplying the cost of each episode of hospital admission for rotavirus GE with national rotavirus incidence in Malaysia. In 2002, the per capita health expenditure by Malaysian Government was US$71.47. Rotavirus was positive in 85 (22%) of the 393 patients with acute GE admitted during the study period. The median cost of providing inpatient care for an episode of rotavirus GE was US$211.91 (range US$68.50-880.60). The estimated average cases of children hospitalised for rotavirus GE in Malaysia (1999-2000) was 8571 annually. The financial burden of providing inpatient care for rotavirus GE in Malaysian children was estimated to be US$1.8 million (range US$0.6 million-7.5 million) annually. The cost of providing inpatient care for childhood rotavirus GE in Malaysia was estimated to be US$1.8 million annually. The financial burden of rotavirus disease would be higher if cost of outpatient visits, non-medical and societal costs are included.

Exploratory Study for Continuous-time Parameter Estimation of Ankle Dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Kukreja, Sunil L.; Boyle, Richard D.

2014-01-01

Recently, a parallel pathway model to describe ankle dynamics was proposed. This model provides a relationship between ankle angle and net ankle torque as the sum of a linear and nonlinear contribution. A technique to identify parameters of this model in discrete-time has been developed. However, these parameters are a nonlinear combination of the continuous-time physiology, making insight into the underlying physiology impossible. The stable and accurate estimation of continuous-time parameters is critical for accurate disease modeling, clinical diagnosis, robotic control strategies, development of optimal exercise protocols for longterm space exploration, sports medicine, etc. This paper explores the development of a system identification technique to estimate the continuous-time parameters of ankle dynamics. The effectiveness of this approach is assessed via simulation of a continuous-time model of ankle dynamics with typical parameters found in clinical studies. The results show that although this technique improves estimates, it does not provide robust estimates of continuous-time parameters of ankle dynamics. Due to this we conclude that alternative modeling strategies and more advanced estimation techniques be considered for future work.

A Modified Proportional Navigation Guidance for Accurate Target Hitting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Moharampour

2010-03-01

First, the pure proportional navigation guidance (PPNG in 3-dimensional state is explained in a new point of view. The main idea is based on the distinction between angular rate vector and rotation vector conceptions. The current innovation is based on selection of line of sight (LOS coordinates. A comparison between two available choices for LOS coordinates system is proposed. An improvement is made by adding two additional terms. First term includes a cross range compensator which is used to provide and enhance path observability, and obtain convergent estimates of state variables. The second term is new concept lead bias term, which has been calculated by assuming an equivalent acceleration along the target longitudinal axis. Simulation results indicate that the lead bias term properly provides terminal conditions for accurate target interception.

How accurately can we estimate energetic costs in a marine top predator, the king penguin?

Science.gov (United States)

Halsey, Lewis G; Fahlman, Andreas; Handrich, Yves; Schmidt, Alexander; Woakes, Anthony J; Butler, Patrick J

2007-01-01

King penguins (Aptenodytes patagonicus) are one of the greatest consumers of marine resources. However, while their influence on the marine ecosystem is likely to be significant, only an accurate knowledge of their energy demands will indicate their true food requirements. Energy consumption has been estimated for many marine species using the heart rate-rate of oxygen consumption (f(H) - V(O2)) technique, and the technique has been applied successfully to answer eco-physiological questions. However, previous studies on the energetics of king penguins, based on developing or applying this technique, have raised a number of issues about the degree of validity of the technique for this species. These include the predictive validity of the present f(H) - V(O2) equations across different seasons and individuals and during different modes of locomotion. In many cases, these issues also apply to other species for which the f(H) - V(O2) technique has been applied. In the present study, the accuracy of three prediction equations for king penguins was investigated based on validity studies and on estimates of V(O2) from published, field f(H) data. The major conclusions from the present study are: (1) in contrast to that for walking, the f(H) - V(O2) relationship for swimming king penguins is not affected by body mass; (2) prediction equation (1), log(V(O2) = -0.279 + 1.24log(f(H) + 0.0237t - 0.0157log(f(H)t, derived in a previous study, is the most suitable equation presently available for estimating V(O2) in king penguins for all locomotory and nutritional states. A number of possible problems associated with producing an f(H) - V(O2) relationship are discussed in the present study. Finally, a statistical method to include easy-to-measure morphometric characteristics, which may improve the accuracy of f(H) - V(O2) prediction equations, is explained.

Small Area Model-Based Estimators Using Big Data Sources

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marchetti Stefano

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The timely, accurate monitoring of social indicators, such as poverty or inequality, on a finegrained spatial and temporal scale is a crucial tool for understanding social phenomena and policymaking, but poses a great challenge to official statistics. This article argues that an interdisciplinary approach, combining the body of statistical research in small area estimation with the body of research in social data mining based on Big Data, can provide novel means to tackle this problem successfully. Big Data derived from the digital crumbs that humans leave behind in their daily activities are in fact providing ever more accurate proxies of social life. Social data mining from these data, coupled with advanced model-based techniques for fine-grained estimates, have the potential to provide a novel microscope through which to view and understand social complexity. This article suggests three ways to use Big Data together with small area estimation techniques, and shows how Big Data has the potential to mirror aspects of well-being and other socioeconomic phenomena.

Quasi-closed phase forward-backward linear prediction analysis of speech for accurate formant detection and estimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Gowda, Dhananjaya; Airaksinen, Manu; Alku, Paavo

2017-09-01

Recently, a quasi-closed phase (QCP) analysis of speech signals for accurate glottal inverse filtering was proposed. However, the QCP analysis which belongs to the family of temporally weighted linear prediction (WLP) methods uses the conventional forward type of sample prediction. This may not be the best choice especially in computing WLP models with a hard-limiting weighting function. A sample selective minimization of the prediction error in WLP reduces the effective number of samples available within a given window frame. To counter this problem, a modified quasi-closed phase forward-backward (QCP-FB) analysis is proposed, wherein each sample is predicted based on its past as well as future samples thereby utilizing the available number of samples more effectively. Formant detection and estimation experiments on synthetic vowels generated using a physical modeling approach as well as natural speech utterances show that the proposed QCP-FB method yields statistically significant improvements over the conventional linear prediction and QCP methods.

Accurate hydrocarbon estimates attained with radioactive isotope

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hubbard, G.

1983-01-01

To make accurate economic evaluations of new discoveries, an oil company needs to know how much gas and oil a reservoir contains. The porous rocks of these reservoirs are not completely filled with gas or oil, but contain a mixture of gas, oil and water. It is extremely important to know what volume percentage of this water--called connate water--is contained in the reservoir rock. The percentage of connate water can be calculated from electrical resistivity measurements made downhole. The accuracy of this method can be improved if a pure sample of connate water can be analyzed or if the chemistry of the water can be determined by conventional logging methods. Because of the similarity of the mud filtrate--the water in a water-based drilling fluid--and the connate water, this is not always possible. If the oil company cannot distinguish between connate water and mud filtrate, its oil-in-place calculations could be incorrect by ten percent or more. It is clear that unless an oil company can be sure that a sample of connate water is pure, or at the very least knows exactly how much mud filtrate it contains, its assessment of the reservoir's water content--and consequently its oil or gas content--will be distorted. The oil companies have opted for the Repeat Formation Tester (RFT) method. Label the drilling fluid with small doses of tritium--a radioactive isotope of hydrogen--and it will be easy to detect and quantify in the sample

Concurrent chart review provides more accurate documentation and increased calculated case mix index, severity of illness, and risk of mortality.

Science.gov (United States)

Frazee, Richard C; Matejicka, Anthony V; Abernathy, Stephen W; Davis, Matthew; Isbell, Travis S; Regner, Justin L; Smith, Randall W; Jupiter, Daniel C; Papaconstantinou, Harry T

2015-04-01

Case mix index (CMI) is calculated to determine the relative value assigned to a Diagnosis-Related Group. Accurate documentation of patient complications and comorbidities and major complications and comorbidities changes CMI and can affect hospital reimbursement and future pay for performance metrics. Starting in 2010, a physician panel concurrently reviewed the documentation of the trauma/acute care surgeons. Clarifications of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services term-specific documentation were made by the panel, and the surgeon could incorporate or decline the clinical queries. A retrospective review of trauma/acute care inpatients was performed. The mean severity of illness, risk of mortality, and CMI from 2009 were compared with the 3 subsequent years. Mean length of stay and mean Injury Severity Score by year were listed as measures of patient acuity. Statistical analysis was performed using ANOVA and t-test, with p reimbursement and more accurately stratify outcomes measures for care providers. Copyright © 2015 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cost Calculation Model for Logistics Service Providers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zoltán Bokor

2012-11-01

Full Text Available The exact calculation of logistics costs has become a real challenge in logistics and supply chain management. It is essential to gain reliable and accurate costing information to attain efficient resource allocation within the logistics service provider companies. Traditional costing approaches, however, may not be sufficient to reach this aim in case of complex and heterogeneous logistics service structures. So this paper intends to explore the ways of improving the cost calculation regimes of logistics service providers and show how to adopt the multi-level full cost allocation technique in logistics practice. After determining the methodological framework, a sample cost calculation scheme is developed and tested by using estimated input data. Based on the theoretical findings and the experiences of the pilot project it can be concluded that the improved costing model contributes to making logistics costing more accurate and transparent. Moreover, the relations between costs and performances also become more visible, which enhances the effectiveness of logistics planning and controlling significantly

Enhancing e-waste estimates: Improving data quality by multivariate Input–Output Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Feng, E-mail: fwang@unu.edu [Institute for Sustainability and Peace, United Nations University, Hermann-Ehler-Str. 10, 53113 Bonn (Germany); Design for Sustainability Lab, Faculty of Industrial Design Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Landbergstraat 15, 2628CE Delft (Netherlands); Huisman, Jaco [Institute for Sustainability and Peace, United Nations University, Hermann-Ehler-Str. 10, 53113 Bonn (Germany); Design for Sustainability Lab, Faculty of Industrial Design Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Landbergstraat 15, 2628CE Delft (Netherlands); Stevels, Ab [Design for Sustainability Lab, Faculty of Industrial Design Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Landbergstraat 15, 2628CE Delft (Netherlands); Baldé, Cornelis Peter [Institute for Sustainability and Peace, United Nations University, Hermann-Ehler-Str. 10, 53113 Bonn (Germany); Statistics Netherlands, Henri Faasdreef 312, 2492 JP Den Haag (Netherlands)

2013-11-15

Highlights: • A multivariate Input–Output Analysis method for e-waste estimates is proposed. • Applying multivariate analysis to consolidate data can enhance e-waste estimates. • We examine the influence of model selection and data quality on e-waste estimates. • Datasets of all e-waste related variables in a Dutch case study have been provided. • Accurate modeling of time-variant lifespan distributions is critical for estimate. - Abstract: Waste electrical and electronic equipment (or e-waste) is one of the fastest growing waste streams, which encompasses a wide and increasing spectrum of products. Accurate estimation of e-waste generation is difficult, mainly due to lack of high quality data referred to market and socio-economic dynamics. This paper addresses how to enhance e-waste estimates by providing techniques to increase data quality. An advanced, flexible and multivariate Input–Output Analysis (IOA) method is proposed. It links all three pillars in IOA (product sales, stock and lifespan profiles) to construct mathematical relationships between various data points. By applying this method, the data consolidation steps can generate more accurate time-series datasets from available data pool. This can consequently increase the reliability of e-waste estimates compared to the approach without data processing. A case study in the Netherlands is used to apply the advanced IOA model. As a result, for the first time ever, complete datasets of all three variables for estimating all types of e-waste have been obtained. The result of this study also demonstrates significant disparity between various estimation models, arising from the use of data under different conditions. It shows the importance of applying multivariate approach and multiple sources to improve data quality for modelling, specifically using appropriate time-varying lifespan parameters. Following the case study, a roadmap with a procedural guideline is provided to enhance e

Enhancing e-waste estimates: Improving data quality by multivariate Input–Output Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Feng; Huisman, Jaco; Stevels, Ab; Baldé, Cornelis Peter

2013-01-01

Highlights: • A multivariate Input–Output Analysis method for e-waste estimates is proposed. • Applying multivariate analysis to consolidate data can enhance e-waste estimates. • We examine the influence of model selection and data quality on e-waste estimates. • Datasets of all e-waste related variables in a Dutch case study have been provided. • Accurate modeling of time-variant lifespan distributions is critical for estimate. - Abstract: Waste electrical and electronic equipment (or e-waste) is one of the fastest growing waste streams, which encompasses a wide and increasing spectrum of products. Accurate estimation of e-waste generation is difficult, mainly due to lack of high quality data referred to market and socio-economic dynamics. This paper addresses how to enhance e-waste estimates by providing techniques to increase data quality. An advanced, flexible and multivariate Input–Output Analysis (IOA) method is proposed. It links all three pillars in IOA (product sales, stock and lifespan profiles) to construct mathematical relationships between various data points. By applying this method, the data consolidation steps can generate more accurate time-series datasets from available data pool. This can consequently increase the reliability of e-waste estimates compared to the approach without data processing. A case study in the Netherlands is used to apply the advanced IOA model. As a result, for the first time ever, complete datasets of all three variables for estimating all types of e-waste have been obtained. The result of this study also demonstrates significant disparity between various estimation models, arising from the use of data under different conditions. It shows the importance of applying multivariate approach and multiple sources to improve data quality for modelling, specifically using appropriate time-varying lifespan parameters. Following the case study, a roadmap with a procedural guideline is provided to enhance e

A practical method of estimating stature of bedridden female nursing home patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Muncie, H L; Sobal, J; Hoopes, J M; Tenney, J H; Warren, J W

1987-04-01

Accurate measurement of stature is important for the determination of several nutritional indices as well as body surface area (BSA) for the normalization of creatinine clearances. Direct standing measurement of stature of bedridden elderly nursing home patients is impossible, and stature as recorded in the chart may not be valid. An accurate stature obtained by summing five segmental measurements was compared to the stature recorded in the patient's chart and calculated estimates of stature from measurement of a long bone (humerus, tibia, knee height). Estimation of stature from measurement of knee height was highly correlated (r = 0.93) to the segmental measurement of stature while estimates from other long-bone measurements were less highly correlated (r = 0.71 to 0.81). Recorded chart stature was poorly correlated (r = 0.37). Measurement of knee height provides a simple, quick, and accurate means of estimating stature for bedridden females in nursing homes.

Determining Optimal New Generation Satellite Derived Metrics for Accurate C3 and C4 Grass Species Aboveground Biomass Estimation in South Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cletah Shoko

2018-04-01

Full Text Available While satellite data has proved to be a powerful tool in estimating C3 and C4 grass species Aboveground Biomass (AGB, finding an appropriate sensor that can accurately characterize the inherent variations remains a challenge. This limitation has hampered the remote sensing community from continuously and precisely monitoring their productivity. This study assessed the potential of a Sentinel 2 MultiSpectral Instrument, Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager, and WorldView-2 sensors, with improved earth imaging characteristics, in estimating C3 and C4 grasses AGB in the Cathedral Peak, South Africa. Overall, all sensors have shown considerable potential in estimating species AGB; with the use of different combinations of the derived spectral bands and vegetation indices producing better accuracies. However, WorldView-2 derived variables yielded better predictive accuracies (R2 ranging between 0.71 and 0.83; RMSEs between 6.92% and 9.84%, followed by Sentinel 2, with R2 between 0.60 and 0.79; and an RMSE 7.66% and 14.66%. Comparatively, Landsat 8 yielded weaker estimates, with R2 ranging between 0.52 and 0.71 and high RMSEs ranging between 9.07% and 19.88%. In addition, spectral bands located within the red edge (e.g., centered at 0.705 and 0.745 µm for Sentinel 2, SWIR, and NIR, as well as the derived indices, were found to be very important in predicting C3 and C4 AGB from the three sensors. The competence of these bands, especially of the free-available Landsat 8 and Sentinel 2 dataset, was also confirmed from the fusion of the datasets. Most importantly, the three sensors managed to capture and show the spatial variations in AGB for the target C3 and C4 grassland area. This work therefore provides a new horizon and a fundamental step towards C3 and C4 grass productivity monitoring for carbon accounting, forage mapping, and modelling the influence of environmental changes on their productivity.

A practical model for pressure probe system response estimation (with review of existing models)

Science.gov (United States)

Hall, B. F.; Povey, T.

2018-04-01

The accurate estimation of the unsteady response (bandwidth) of pneumatic pressure probe systems (probe, line and transducer volume) is a common practical problem encountered in the design of aerodynamic experiments. Understanding the bandwidth of the probe system is necessary to capture unsteady flow features accurately. Where traversing probes are used, the desired traverse speed and spatial gradients in the flow dictate the minimum probe system bandwidth required to resolve the flow. Existing approaches for bandwidth estimation are either complex or inaccurate in implementation, so probes are often designed based on experience. Where probe system bandwidth is characterized, it is often done experimentally, requiring careful experimental set-up and analysis. There is a need for a relatively simple but accurate model for estimation of probe system bandwidth. A new model is presented for the accurate estimation of pressure probe bandwidth for simple probes commonly used in wind tunnel environments; experimental validation is provided. An additional, simple graphical method for air is included for convenience.

Rib biomechanical properties exhibit diagnostic potential for accurate ageing in forensic investigations

Science.gov (United States)

Bonicelli, Andrea; Xhemali, Bledar; Kranioti, Elena F.

2017-01-01

Age estimation remains one of the most challenging tasks in forensic practice when establishing a biological profile of unknown skeletonised remains. Morphological methods based on developmental markers of bones can provide accurate age estimates at a young age, but become highly unreliable for ages over 35 when all developmental markers disappear. This study explores the changes in the biomechanical properties of bone tissue and matrix, which continue to change with age even after skeletal maturity, and their potential value for age estimation. As a proof of concept we investigated the relationship of 28 variables at the macroscopic and microscopic level in rib autopsy samples from 24 individuals. Stepwise regression analysis produced a number of equations one of which with seven variables showed an R2 = 0.949; a mean residual error of 2.13 yrs ±0.4 (SD) and a maximum residual error value of 2.88 yrs. For forensic purposes, by using only bench top machines in tests which can be carried out within 36 hrs, a set of just 3 variables produced an equation with an R2 = 0.902 a mean residual error of 3.38 yrs ±2.6 (SD) and a maximum observed residual error 9.26yrs. This method outstrips all existing age-at-death methods based on ribs, thus providing a novel lab based accurate tool in the forensic investigation of human remains. The present application is optimised for fresh (uncompromised by taphonomic conditions) remains, but the potential of the principle and method is vast once the trends of the biomechanical variables are established for other environmental conditions and circumstances. PMID:28520764

Kinetic determinations of accurate relative oxidation potentials of amines with reactive radical cations.

Science.gov (United States)

Gould, Ian R; Wosinska, Zofia M; Farid, Samir

2006-01-01

Accurate oxidation potentials for organic compounds are critical for the evaluation of thermodynamic and kinetic properties of their radical cations. Except when using a specialized apparatus, electrochemical oxidation of molecules with reactive radical cations is usually an irreversible process, providing peak potentials, E(p), rather than thermodynamically meaningful oxidation potentials, E(ox). In a previous study on amines with radical cations that underwent rapid decarboxylation, we estimated E(ox) by correcting the E(p) from cyclic voltammetry with rate constants for decarboxylation obtained using laser flash photolysis. Here we use redox equilibration experiments to determine accurate relative oxidation potentials for the same amines. We also describe an extension of these experiments to show how relative oxidation potentials can be obtained in the absence of equilibrium, from a complete kinetic analysis of the reversible redox kinetics. The results provide support for the previous cyclic voltammetry/laser flash photolysis method for determining oxidation potentials.

Psychological impact of providing women with personalised 10-year breast cancer risk estimates.

Science.gov (United States)

French, David P; Southworth, Jake; Howell, Anthony; Harvie, Michelle; Stavrinos, Paula; Watterson, Donna; Sampson, Sarah; Evans, D Gareth; Donnelly, Louise S

2018-05-08

The Predicting Risk of Cancer at Screening (PROCAS) study estimated 10-year breast cancer risk for 53,596 women attending NHS Breast Screening Programme. The present study, nested within the PROCAS study, aimed to assess the psychological impact of receiving breast cancer risk estimates, based on: (a) the Tyrer-Cuzick (T-C) algorithm including breast density or (b) T-C including breast density plus single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), versus (c) comparison women awaiting results. A sample of 2138 women from the PROCAS study was stratified by testing groups: T-C only, T-C(+SNPs) and comparison women; and by 10-year risk estimates received: 'moderate' (5-7.99%), 'average' (2-4.99%) or 'below average' (<1.99%) risk. Postal questionnaires were returned by 765 (36%) women. Overall state anxiety and cancer worry were low, and similar for women in T-C only and T-C(+SNPs) groups. Women in both T-C only and T-C(+SNPs) groups showed lower-state anxiety but slightly higher cancer worry than comparison women awaiting results. Risk information had no consistent effects on intentions to change behaviour. Most women were satisfied with information provided. There was considerable variation in understanding. No major harms of providing women with 10-year breast cancer risk estimates were detected. Research to establish the feasibility of risk-stratified breast screening is warranted.

How accurate are forecasts of costs of energy? A methodological contribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siddons, Craig; Allan, Grant; McIntyre, Stuart

2015-01-01

Forecasts of the cost of energy are typically presented as point estimates; however forecasts are seldom accurate, which makes it important to understand the uncertainty around these point estimates. The scale of the differences between forecasts and outturns (i.e. contemporary estimates) of costs may have important implications for government decisions on the appropriate form (and level) of support, modelling energy scenarios or industry investment appraisal. This paper proposes a methodology to assess the accuracy of cost forecasts. We apply this to levelised costs of energy for different generation technologies due to the availability of comparable forecasts and contemporary estimates, however the same methodology could be applied to the components of levelised costs, such as capital costs. The estimated “forecast errors” capture the accuracy of previous forecasts and can provide objective bounds to the range around current forecasts for such costs. The results from applying this method are illustrated using publicly available data for on- and off-shore wind, Nuclear and CCGT technologies, revealing the possible scale of “forecast errors” for these technologies. - Highlights: • A methodology to assess the accuracy of forecasts of costs of energy is outlined. • Method applied to illustrative data for four electricity generation technologies. • Results give an objective basis for sensitivity analysis around point estimates.

Optimization of tissue physical parameters for accurate temperature estimation from finite-element simulation of radiofrequency ablation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Subramanian, Swetha; Mast, T Douglas

2015-01-01

Computational finite element models are commonly used for the simulation of radiofrequency ablation (RFA) treatments. However, the accuracy of these simulations is limited by the lack of precise knowledge of tissue parameters. In this technical note, an inverse solver based on the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) is proposed to optimize values for specific heat, thermal conductivity, and electrical conductivity resulting in accurately simulated temperature elevations. A total of 15 RFA treatments were performed on ex vivo bovine liver tissue. For each RFA treatment, 15 finite-element simulations were performed using a set of deterministically chosen tissue parameters to estimate the mean and variance of the resulting tissue ablation. The UKF was implemented as an inverse solver to recover the specific heat, thermal conductivity, and electrical conductivity corresponding to the measured area of the ablated tissue region, as determined from gross tissue histology. These tissue parameters were then employed in the finite element model to simulate the position- and time-dependent tissue temperature. Results show good agreement between simulated and measured temperature. (note)

Optimization of tissue physical parameters for accurate temperature estimation from finite-element simulation of radiofrequency ablation.

Science.gov (United States)

Subramanian, Swetha; Mast, T Douglas

2015-10-07

Computational finite element models are commonly used for the simulation of radiofrequency ablation (RFA) treatments. However, the accuracy of these simulations is limited by the lack of precise knowledge of tissue parameters. In this technical note, an inverse solver based on the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) is proposed to optimize values for specific heat, thermal conductivity, and electrical conductivity resulting in accurately simulated temperature elevations. A total of 15 RFA treatments were performed on ex vivo bovine liver tissue. For each RFA treatment, 15 finite-element simulations were performed using a set of deterministically chosen tissue parameters to estimate the mean and variance of the resulting tissue ablation. The UKF was implemented as an inverse solver to recover the specific heat, thermal conductivity, and electrical conductivity corresponding to the measured area of the ablated tissue region, as determined from gross tissue histology. These tissue parameters were then employed in the finite element model to simulate the position- and time-dependent tissue temperature. Results show good agreement between simulated and measured temperature.

Star-sensor-based predictive Kalman filter for satelliteattitude estimation

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

林玉荣; 邓正隆

2002-01-01

A real-time attitude estimation algorithm, namely the predictive Kalman filter, is presented. This algorithm can accurately estimate the three-axis attitude of a satellite using only star sensor measurements. The implementation of the filter includes two steps: first, predicting the torque modeling error, and then estimating the attitude. Simulation results indicate that the predictive Kalman filter provides robust performance in the presence of both significant errors in the assumed model and in the initial conditions.

Tridimensional pose estimation of a person head

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perez Berenguer, Elisa; Soria, Carlos; Nasisi, Oscar; Mut, Vicente

2007-01-01

In this work, we present a method for estimating 3-D motion parameters; this method provides an alternative way for 3D head pose estimation from image sequence in the current computer vision literature. This method is robust over extended sequences and large head motions and accurately extracts the orientation angles of head from a single view. Experimental results show that this tracking system works well for development a human-computer interface for people that possess severe motor incapacity

Accurate costs of blood transfusion: a microcosting of administering blood products in the United Kingdom National Health Service.

Science.gov (United States)

Stokes, Elizabeth A; Wordsworth, Sarah; Staves, Julie; Mundy, Nicola; Skelly, Jane; Radford, Kelly; Stanworth, Simon J

2018-04-01

In an environment of limited health care resources, it is crucial for health care systems which provide blood transfusion to have accurate and comprehensive information on the costs of transfusion, incorporating not only the costs of blood products, but also their administration. Unfortunately, in many countries accurate costs for administering blood are not available. Our study aimed to generate comprehensive estimates of the costs of administering transfusions for the UK National Health Service. A detailed microcosting study was used to cost two key inputs into transfusion: transfusion laboratory and nursing inputs. For each input, data collection forms were developed to capture staff time, equipment, and consumables associated with each step in the transfusion process. Costing results were combined with costs of blood product wastage to calculate the cost per unit transfused, separately for different blood products. Data were collected in 2014/15 British pounds and converted to US dollars. A total of 438 data collection forms were completed by 74 staff. The cost of administering blood was $71 (£49) per unit for red blood cells, $84 (£58) for platelets, $55 (£38) for fresh-frozen plasma, and $72 (£49) for cryoprecipitate. Blood administration costs add substantially to the costs of the blood products themselves. These are frequently incurred costs; applying estimates to the blood components supplied to UK hospitals in 2015, the annual cost of blood administration, excluding blood products, exceeds $175 (£120) million. These results provide more accurate estimates of the total costs of transfusion than those previously available. © 2018 AABB.

Cross-property relations and permeability estimation in model porous media

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schwartz, L.M.; Martys, N.; Bentz, D.P.; Garboczi, E.J.; Torquato, S.

1993-01-01

Results from a numerical study examining cross-property relations linking fluid permeability to diffusive and electrical properties are presented. Numerical solutions of the Stokes equations in three-dimensional consolidated granular packings are employed to provide a basis of comparison between different permeability estimates. Estimates based on the Λ parameter (a length derived from electrical conduction) and on d c (a length derived from immiscible displacement) are found to be considerably more reliable than estimates based on rigorous permeability bounds related to pore space diffusion. We propose two hybrid relations based on diffusion which provide more accurate estimates than either of the rigorous permeability bounds

Accurate determination of light elements by charged particle activation analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shikano, K.; Shigematsu, T.

1989-01-01

To develop accurate determination of light elements by CPAA, accurate and practical standardization methods and uniform chemical etching are studied based on determination of carbon in gallium arsenide using the 12 C(d,n) 13 N reaction and the following results are obtained: (1)Average stopping power method with thick target yield is useful as an accurate and practical standardization method. (2)Front surface of sample has to be etched for accurate estimate of incident energy. (3)CPAA is utilized for calibration of light element analysis by physical method. (4)Calibration factor of carbon analysis in gallium arsenide using the IR method is determined to be (9.2±0.3) x 10 15 cm -1 . (author)

When Is Network Lasso Accurate?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexander Jung

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The “least absolute shrinkage and selection operator” (Lasso method has been adapted recently for network-structured datasets. In particular, this network Lasso method allows to learn graph signals from a small number of noisy signal samples by using the total variation of a graph signal for regularization. While efficient and scalable implementations of the network Lasso are available, only little is known about the conditions on the underlying network structure which ensure network Lasso to be accurate. By leveraging concepts of compressed sensing, we address this gap and derive precise conditions on the underlying network topology and sampling set which guarantee the network Lasso for a particular loss function to deliver an accurate estimate of the entire underlying graph signal. We also quantify the error incurred by network Lasso in terms of two constants which reflect the connectivity of the sampled nodes.

Fast and accurate estimation of the covariance between pairwise maximum likelihood distances

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Manuel Gil

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Pairwise evolutionary distances are a model-based summary statistic for a set of molecular sequences. They represent the leaf-to-leaf path lengths of the underlying phylogenetic tree. Estimates of pairwise distances with overlapping paths covary because of shared mutation events. It is desirable to take these covariance structure into account to increase precision in any process that compares or combines distances. This paper introduces a fast estimator for the covariance of two pairwise maximum likelihood distances, estimated under general Markov models. The estimator is based on a conjecture (going back to Nei & Jin, 1989 which links the covariance to path lengths. It is proven here under a simple symmetric substitution model. A simulation shows that the estimator outperforms previously published ones in terms of the mean squared error.

Fast and accurate estimation of the covariance between pairwise maximum likelihood distances.

Science.gov (United States)

Gil, Manuel

2014-01-01

Pairwise evolutionary distances are a model-based summary statistic for a set of molecular sequences. They represent the leaf-to-leaf path lengths of the underlying phylogenetic tree. Estimates of pairwise distances with overlapping paths covary because of shared mutation events. It is desirable to take these covariance structure into account to increase precision in any process that compares or combines distances. This paper introduces a fast estimator for the covariance of two pairwise maximum likelihood distances, estimated under general Markov models. The estimator is based on a conjecture (going back to Nei & Jin, 1989) which links the covariance to path lengths. It is proven here under a simple symmetric substitution model. A simulation shows that the estimator outperforms previously published ones in terms of the mean squared error.

Mitigating Provider Uncertainty in Service Provision Contracts

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Chris; van Moorsel, Aad

Uncertainty is an inherent property of open, distributed and multiparty systems. The viability of the mutually beneficial relationships which motivate these systems relies on rational decision-making by each constituent party under uncertainty. Service provision in distributed systems is one such relationship. Uncertainty is experienced by the service provider in his ability to deliver a service with selected quality level guarantees due to inherent non-determinism, such as load fluctuations and hardware failures. Statistical estimators utilized to model this non-determinism introduce additional uncertainty through sampling error. Inability of the provider to accurately model and analyze uncertainty in the quality level guarantees can result in the formation of sub-optimal service provision contracts. Emblematic consequences include loss of revenue, inefficient resource utilization and erosion of reputation and consumer trust. We propose a utility model for contract-based service provision to provide a systematic approach to optimal service provision contract formation under uncertainty. Performance prediction methods to enable the derivation of statistical estimators for quality level are introduced, with analysis of their resultant accuracy and cost.

Photogrammetry and Laser Imagery Tests for Tank Waste Volume Estimates: Summary Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Field, Jim G. [Washington River Protection Solutions, LLC, Richland, WA (United States)

2013-03-27

Feasibility tests were conducted using photogrammetry and laser technologies to estimate the volume of waste in a tank. These technologies were compared with video Camera/CAD Modeling System (CCMS) estimates; the current method used for post-retrieval waste volume estimates. This report summarizes test results and presents recommendations for further development and deployment of technologies to provide more accurate and faster waste volume estimates in support of tank retrieval and closure.

Photogrammetry and Laser Imagery Tests for Tank Waste Volume Estimates: Summary Report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Field, Jim G.

2013-01-01

Feasibility tests were conducted using photogrammetry and laser technologies to estimate the volume of waste in a tank. These technologies were compared with video Camera/CAD Modeling System (CCMS) estimates; the current method used for post-retrieval waste volume estimates. This report summarizes test results and presents recommendations for further development and deployment of technologies to provide more accurate and faster waste volume estimates in support of tank retrieval and closure

Artificial Intelligence Procedures for Tree Taper Estimation within a Complex Vegetation Mosaic in Brazil.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matheus Henrique Nunes

Full Text Available Tree stem form in native tropical forests is very irregular, posing a challenge to establishing taper equations that can accurately predict the diameter at any height along the stem and subsequently merchantable volume. Artificial intelligence approaches can be useful techniques in minimizing estimation errors within complex variations of vegetation. We evaluated the performance of Random Forest® regression tree and Artificial Neural Network procedures in modelling stem taper. Diameters and volume outside bark were compared to a traditional taper-based equation across a tropical Brazilian savanna, a seasonal semi-deciduous forest and a rainforest. Neural network models were found to be more accurate than the traditional taper equation. Random forest showed trends in the residuals from the diameter prediction and provided the least precise and accurate estimations for all forest types. This study provides insights into the superiority of a neural network, which provided advantages regarding the handling of local effects.

Fast and accurate determination of modularity and its effect size

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Treviño, Santiago III; Nyberg, Amy; Bassler, Kevin E; Del Genio, Charo I

2015-01-01

We present a fast spectral algorithm for community detection in complex networks. Our method searches for the partition with the maximum value of the modularity via the interplay of several refinement steps that include both agglomeration and division. We validate the accuracy of the algorithm by applying it to several real-world benchmark networks. On all these, our algorithm performs as well or better than any other known polynomial scheme. This allows us to extensively study the modularity distribution in ensembles of Erdős–Rényi networks, producing theoretical predictions for means and variances inclusive of finite-size corrections. Our work provides a way to accurately estimate the effect size of modularity, providing a z-score measure of it and enabling a more informative comparison of networks with different numbers of nodes and links. (paper)

A review of models and micrometeorological methods used to estimate wetland evapotranspiration

Science.gov (United States)

Drexler, J.Z.; Snyder, R.L.; Spano, D.; Paw, U.K.T.

2004-01-01

Within the past decade or so, the accuracy of evapotranspiration (ET) estimates has improved due to new and increasingly sophisticated methods. Yet despite a plethora of choices concerning methods, estimation of wetland ET remains insufficiently characterized due to the complexity of surface characteristics and the diversity of wetland types. In this review, we present models and micrometeorological methods that have been used to estimate wetland ET and discuss their suitability for particular wetland types. Hydrological, soil monitoring and lysimetric methods to determine ET are not discussed. Our review shows that, due to the variability and complexity of wetlands, there is no single approach that is the best for estimating wetland ET. Furthermore, there is no single foolproof method to obtain an accurate, independent measure of wetland ET. Because all of the methods reviewed, with the exception of eddy covariance and LIDAR, require measurements of net radiation (Rn) and soil heat flux (G), highly accurate measurements of these energy components are key to improving measurements of wetland ET. Many of the major methods used to determine ET can be applied successfully to wetlands of uniform vegetation and adequate fetch, however, certain caveats apply. For example, with accurate Rn and G data and small Bowen ratio (??) values, the Bowen ratio energy balance method can give accurate estimates of wetland ET. However, large errors in latent heat flux density can occur near sunrise and sunset when the Bowen ratio ?? ??? - 1??0. The eddy covariance method provides a direct measurement of latent heat flux density (??E) and sensible heat flux density (II), yet this method requires considerable expertise and expensive instrumentation to implement. A clear advantage of using the eddy covariance method is that ??E can be compared with Rn-G H, thereby allowing for an independent test of accuracy. The surface renewal method is inexpensive to replicate and, therefore, shows

Assessing the accuracy of body mass estimation equations from pelvic and femoral variables among modern British women of known mass.

Science.gov (United States)

Young, Mariel; Johannesdottir, Fjola; Poole, Ken; Shaw, Colin; Stock, J T

2018-02-01

Femoral head diameter is commonly used to estimate body mass from the skeleton. The three most frequently employed methods, designed by Ruff, Grine, and McHenry, were developed using different populations to address different research questions. They were not specifically designed for application to female remains, and their accuracy for this purpose has rarely been assessed or compared in living populations. This study analyzes the accuracy of these methods using a sample of modern British women through the use of pelvic CT scans (n = 97) and corresponding information about the individuals' known height and weight. Results showed that all methods provided reasonably accurate body mass estimates (average percent prediction errors under 20%) for the normal weight and overweight subsamples, but were inaccurate for the obese and underweight subsamples (average percent prediction errors over 20%). When women of all body mass categories were combined, the methods provided reasonable estimates (average percent prediction errors between 16 and 18%). The results demonstrate that different methods provide more accurate results within specific body mass index (BMI) ranges. The McHenry Equation provided the most accurate estimation for women of small body size, while the original Ruff Equation is most likely to be accurate if the individual was obese or severely obese. The refined Ruff Equation was the most accurate predictor of body mass on average for the entire sample, indicating that it should be utilized when there is no knowledge of the individual's body size or if the individual is assumed to be of a normal body size. The study also revealed a correlation between pubis length and body mass, and an equation for body mass estimation using pubis length was accurate in a dummy sample, suggesting that pubis length can also be used to acquire reliable body mass estimates. This has implications for how we interpret body mass in fossil hominins and has particular relevance

Accurate Evaluation of Expected Shortfall for Linear Portfolios with Elliptically Distributed Risk Factors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dobrislav Dobrev∗

2017-02-01

Full Text Available We provide an accurate closed-form expression for the expected shortfall of linear portfolios with elliptically distributed risk factors. Our results aim to correct inaccuracies that originate in Kamdem (2005 and are present also in at least thirty other papers referencing it, including the recent survey by Nadarajah et al. (2014 on estimation methods for expected shortfall. In particular, we show that the correction we provide in the popular multivariate Student t setting eliminates understatement of expected shortfall by a factor varying from at least four to more than 100 across different tail quantiles and degrees of freedom. As such, the resulting economic impact in financial risk management applications could be significant. We further correct such errors encountered also in closely related results in Kamdem (2007 and 2009 for mixtures of elliptical distributions. More generally, our findings point to the extra scrutiny required when deploying new methods for expected shortfall estimation in practice.

Kinetic parametric estimation in animal PET molecular imaging based on artificial immune network

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen Yuting; Ding Hong; Lu Rui; Huang Hongbo; Liu Li

2011-01-01

Objective: To develop an accurate,reliable method without the need of initialization in animal PET modeling for estimation of the tracer kinetic parameters based on the artificial immune network. Methods: The hepatic and left ventricular time activity curves (TACs) were obtained by drawing ROIs of liver tissue and left ventricle on dynamic 18 F-FDG PET imaging of small mice. Meanwhile, the blood TAC was analyzed by sampling the tail vein blood at different time points after injection. The artificial immune network for parametric optimization of pharmacokinetics (PKAIN) was adapted to estimate the model parameters and the metabolic rate of glucose (K i ) was calculated. Results: TACs of liver,left ventricle and tail vein blood were obtained.Based on the artificial immune network, K i in 3 mice was estimated as 0.0024, 0.0417 and 0.0047, respectively. The average weighted residual sum of squares of the output model generated by PKAIN was less than 0.0745 with a maximum standard deviation of 0.0084, which indicated that the proposed PKAIN method can provide accurate and reliable parametric estimation. Conclusion: The PKAIN method could provide accurate and reliable tracer kinetic modeling in animal PET imaging without the need of initialization of model parameters. (authors)

Accurate estimation of camera shot noise in the real-time

Science.gov (United States)

Cheremkhin, Pavel A.; Evtikhiev, Nikolay N.; Krasnov, Vitaly V.; Rodin, Vladislav G.; Starikov, Rostislav S.

2017-10-01

Nowadays digital cameras are essential parts of various technological processes and daily tasks. They are widely used in optics and photonics, astronomy, biology and other various fields of science and technology such as control systems and video-surveillance monitoring. One of the main information limitations of photo- and videocameras are noises of photosensor pixels. Camera's photosensor noise can be divided into random and pattern components. Temporal noise includes random noise component while spatial noise includes pattern noise component. Temporal noise can be divided into signal-dependent shot noise and signal-nondependent dark temporal noise. For measurement of camera noise characteristics, the most widely used methods are standards (for example, EMVA Standard 1288). It allows precise shot and dark temporal noise measurement but difficult in implementation and time-consuming. Earlier we proposed method for measurement of temporal noise of photo- and videocameras. It is based on the automatic segmentation of nonuniform targets (ASNT). Only two frames are sufficient for noise measurement with the modified method. In this paper, we registered frames and estimated shot and dark temporal noises of cameras consistently in the real-time. The modified ASNT method is used. Estimation was performed for the cameras: consumer photocamera Canon EOS 400D (CMOS, 10.1 MP, 12 bit ADC), scientific camera MegaPlus II ES11000 (CCD, 10.7 MP, 12 bit ADC), industrial camera PixeLink PL-B781F (CMOS, 6.6 MP, 10 bit ADC) and video-surveillance camera Watec LCL-902C (CCD, 0.47 MP, external 8 bit ADC). Experimental dependencies of temporal noise on signal value are in good agreement with fitted curves based on a Poisson distribution excluding areas near saturation. Time of registering and processing of frames used for temporal noise estimation was measured. Using standard computer, frames were registered and processed during a fraction of second to several seconds only. Also the

Power system frequency estimation based on an orthogonal decomposition method

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Chih-Hung; Tsai, Men-Shen

2018-06-01

In recent years, several frequency estimation techniques have been proposed by which to estimate the frequency variations in power systems. In order to properly identify power quality issues under asynchronously-sampled signals that are contaminated with noise, flicker, and harmonic and inter-harmonic components, a good frequency estimator that is able to estimate the frequency as well as the rate of frequency changes precisely is needed. However, accurately estimating the fundamental frequency becomes a very difficult task without a priori information about the sampling frequency. In this paper, a better frequency evaluation scheme for power systems is proposed. This method employs a reconstruction technique in combination with orthogonal filters, which may maintain the required frequency characteristics of the orthogonal filters and improve the overall efficiency of power system monitoring through two-stage sliding discrete Fourier transforms. The results showed that this method can accurately estimate the power system frequency under different conditions, including asynchronously sampled signals contaminated by noise, flicker, and harmonic and inter-harmonic components. The proposed approach also provides high computational efficiency.

Parameter Estimation in Stochastic Grey-Box Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kristensen, Niels Rode; Madsen, Henrik; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

2004-01-01

An efficient and flexible parameter estimation scheme for grey-box models in the sense of discretely, partially observed Ito stochastic differential equations with measurement noise is presented along with a corresponding software implementation. The estimation scheme is based on the extended...... Kalman filter and features maximum likelihood as well as maximum a posteriori estimation on multiple independent data sets, including irregularly sampled data sets and data sets with occasional outliers and missing observations. The software implementation is compared to an existing software tool...... and proves to have better performance both in terms of quality of estimates for nonlinear systems with significant diffusion and in terms of reproducibility. In particular, the new tool provides more accurate and more consistent estimates of the parameters of the diffusion term....

Critical review of on-board capacity estimation techniques for lithium-ion batteries in electric and hybrid electric vehicles

Science.gov (United States)

Farmann, Alexander; Waag, Wladislaw; Marongiu, Andrea; Sauer, Dirk Uwe

2015-05-01

This work provides an overview of available methods and algorithms for on-board capacity estimation of lithium-ion batteries. An accurate state estimation for battery management systems in electric vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles is becoming more essential due to the increasing attention paid to safety and lifetime issues. Different approaches for the estimation of State-of-Charge, State-of-Health and State-of-Function are discussed and analyzed by many authors and researchers in the past. On-board estimation of capacity in large lithium-ion battery packs is definitely one of the most crucial challenges of battery monitoring in the aforementioned vehicles. This is mostly due to high dynamic operation and conditions far from those used in laboratory environments as well as the large variation in aging behavior of each cell in the battery pack. Accurate capacity estimation allows an accurate driving range prediction and accurate calculation of a battery's maximum energy storage capability in a vehicle. At the same time it acts as an indicator for battery State-of-Health and Remaining Useful Lifetime estimation.

Online state of charge and model parameter co-estimation based on a novel multi-timescale estimator for vanadium redox flow battery

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wei, Zhongbao; Lim, Tuti Mariana; Skyllas-Kazacos, Maria; Wai, Nyunt; Tseng, King Jet

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Battery model parameters and SOC co-estimation is investigated. • The model parameters and OCV are decoupled and estimated independently. • Multiple timescales are adopted to improve precision and stability. • SOC is online estimated without using the open-circuit cell. • The method is robust to aging levels, flow rates, and battery chemistries. - Abstract: A key function of battery management system (BMS) is to provide accurate information of the state of charge (SOC) in real time, and this depends directly on the precise model parameterization. In this paper, a novel multi-timescale estimator is proposed to estimate the model parameters and SOC for vanadium redox flow battery (VRB) in real time. The model parameters and OCV are decoupled and estimated independently, effectively avoiding the possibility of cross interference between them. The analysis of model sensitivity, stability, and precision suggests the necessity of adopting different timescales for each estimator independently. Experiments are conducted to assess the performance of the proposed method. Results reveal that the model parameters are online adapted accurately thus the periodical calibration on them can be avoided. The online estimated terminal voltage and SOC are both benchmarked with the reference values. The proposed multi-timescale estimator has the merits of fast convergence, high precision, and good robustness against the initialization uncertainty, aging states, flow rates, and also battery chemistries.

Determining Sample Size for Accurate Estimation of the Squared Multiple Correlation Coefficient.

Science.gov (United States)

Algina, James; Olejnik, Stephen

2000-01-01

Discusses determining sample size for estimation of the squared multiple correlation coefficient and presents regression equations that permit determination of the sample size for estimating this parameter for up to 20 predictor variables. (SLD)

Dual states estimation of a subsurface flow-transport coupled model using ensemble Kalman filtering

KAUST Repository

El Gharamti, Mohamad

2013-10-01

Modeling the spread of subsurface contaminants requires coupling a groundwater flow model with a contaminant transport model. Such coupling may provide accurate estimates of future subsurface hydrologic states if essential flow and contaminant data are assimilated in the model. Assuming perfect flow, an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) can be used for direct data assimilation into the transport model. This is, however, a crude assumption as flow models can be subject to many sources of uncertainty. If the flow is not accurately simulated, contaminant predictions will likely be inaccurate even after successive Kalman updates of the contaminant model with the data. The problem is better handled when both flow and contaminant states are concurrently estimated using the traditional joint state augmentation approach. In this paper, we introduce a dual estimation strategy for data assimilation into a one-way coupled system by treating the flow and the contaminant models separately while intertwining a pair of distinct EnKFs, one for each model. The presented strategy only deals with the estimation of state variables but it can also be used for state and parameter estimation problems. This EnKF-based dual state-state estimation procedure presents a number of novel features: (i) it allows for simultaneous estimation of both flow and contaminant states in parallel; (ii) it provides a time consistent sequential updating scheme between the two models (first flow, then transport); (iii) it simplifies the implementation of the filtering system; and (iv) it yields more stable and accurate solutions than does the standard joint approach. We conducted synthetic numerical experiments based on various time stepping and observation strategies to evaluate the dual EnKF approach and compare its performance with the joint state augmentation approach. Experimental results show that on average, the dual strategy could reduce the estimation error of the coupled states by 15% compared with the

Battery electric vehicle energy consumption modelling for range estimation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wang, J.; Besselink, I.J.M.; Nijmeijer, H.

2017-01-01

Range anxiety is considered as one of the major barriers to the mass adoption of battery electric vehicles (BEVs). One method to solve this problem is to provide accurate range estimation to the driver. This paper describes a vehicle energy consumption model considering the influence of weather

A deep learning approach to estimate stress distribution: a fast and accurate surrogate of finite-element analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Liang; Liu, Minliang; Martin, Caitlin; Sun, Wei

2018-01-01

Structural finite-element analysis (FEA) has been widely used to study the biomechanics of human tissues and organs, as well as tissue-medical device interactions, and treatment strategies. However, patient-specific FEA models usually require complex procedures to set up and long computing times to obtain final simulation results, preventing prompt feedback to clinicians in time-sensitive clinical applications. In this study, by using machine learning techniques, we developed a deep learning (DL) model to directly estimate the stress distributions of the aorta. The DL model was designed and trained to take the input of FEA and directly output the aortic wall stress distributions, bypassing the FEA calculation process. The trained DL model is capable of predicting the stress distributions with average errors of 0.492% and 0.891% in the Von Mises stress distribution and peak Von Mises stress, respectively. This study marks, to our knowledge, the first study that demonstrates the feasibility and great potential of using the DL technique as a fast and accurate surrogate of FEA for stress analysis. © 2018 The Author(s).

Conceptual Design of an Online Estimation System for Stigmergic Collaboration and Nodal Intelligence on Distributed DC Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

DOORSAMY, W.

2017-05-01

Full Text Available The secondary level control of stand-alone distributed energy systems requires accurate online state information for effective coordination of its components. State estimation is possible through several techniques depending on the system's architecture and control philosophy. A conceptual design of an online state estimation system to provide nodal autonomy on DC systems is presented. The proposed estimation system uses local measurements - at each node - to obtain an aggregation of the system's state required for nodal self-control without the need for external communication with other nodes or a central controller. The recursive least-squares technique is used in conjunction with stigmergic collaboration to implement the state estimation system. Numerical results are obtained using a Matlab/Simulink model and experimentally validated in a laboratory setting. Results indicate that the proposed system provides accurate estimation and fast updating during both quasi-static and transient states.

A New Approach to Estimate Forest Parameters Using Dual-Baseline Pol-InSAR Data

Science.gov (United States)

Bai, L.; Hong, W.; Cao, F.; Zhou, Y.

2009-04-01

In POL-InSAR applications using ESPRIT technique, it is assumed that there exist stable scattering centres in the forest. However, the observations in forest severely suffer from volume and temporal decorrelation. The forest scatters are not stable as assumed. The obtained interferometric information is not accurate as expected. Besides, ESPRIT techniques could not identify the interferometric phases corresponding to the ground and the canopy. It provides multiple estimations for the height between two scattering centers due to phase unwrapping. Therefore, estimation errors are introduced to the forest height results. To suppress the two types of errors, we use the dual-baseline POL-InSAR data to estimate forest height. Dual-baseline coherence optimization is applied to obtain interferometric information of stable scattering centers in the forest. From the interferometric phases for different baselines, estimation errors caused by phase unwrapping is solved. Other estimation errors can be suppressed, too. Experiments are done to the ESAR L band POL-InSAR data. Experimental results show the proposed methods provide more accurate forest height than ESPRIT technique.

PET motion correction using PRESTO with ITK motion estimation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Botelho, Melissa [Institute of Biophysics and Biomedical Engineering, Science Faculty of University of Lisbon (Portugal); Caldeira, Liliana; Scheins, Juergen [Institute of Neuroscience and Medicine (INM-4), Forschungszentrum Jülich (Germany); Matela, Nuno [Institute of Biophysics and Biomedical Engineering, Science Faculty of University of Lisbon (Portugal); Kops, Elena Rota; Shah, N Jon [Institute of Neuroscience and Medicine (INM-4), Forschungszentrum Jülich (Germany)

2014-07-29

The Siemens BrainPET scanner is a hybrid MRI/PET system. PET images are prone to motion artefacts which degrade the image quality. Therefore, motion correction is essential. The library PRESTO converts motion-corrected LORs into highly accurate generic projection data [1], providing high-resolution PET images. ITK is an open-source software used for registering multidimensional data []. ITK provides motion estimation necessary to PRESTO.

PET motion correction using PRESTO with ITK motion estimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Botelho, Melissa; Caldeira, Liliana; Scheins, Juergen; Matela, Nuno; Kops, Elena Rota; Shah, N Jon

2014-01-01

The Siemens BrainPET scanner is a hybrid MRI/PET system. PET images are prone to motion artefacts which degrade the image quality. Therefore, motion correction is essential. The library PRESTO converts motion-corrected LORs into highly accurate generic projection data [1], providing high-resolution PET images. ITK is an open-source software used for registering multidimensional data []. ITK provides motion estimation necessary to PRESTO.

Estimating the size of juvenile fish populations in southeastern coastal-plain estuaries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kjelson, M.A.

1977-01-01

Understanding the ecological significance of man's activities upon fishery resources requires information on the size of affected fish stocks. The objective of this paper is to provide information to evaluate and plan sampling programs designed to obtain accurate and precise estimates of fish abundance. Nursery habitats, as marsh--tidal creeks and submerged grass beds, offer the optimal conditions for estimating natural mortality rates for young-of-the-year fish in Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coast estuaries. The area-density method of abundance estimation using quantitative gears is more feasible than either mark-recapture or direct-count techniques. The blockage method provides the most accurate estimates, while encircling devices enable highly mobile species found in open water to be captured. Drop nets and lift nets allow samples to be taken in obstructed sites, but trawls and seines are the most economical gears. Replicate samples are necessary to improve the precision of density estimates, while evaluation and use of gear-catch efficiencies is feasible and required to improve the accuracy of density estimates. Coefficients of variation for replicate trawl samples range from 50 to 150 percent, while catch efficiencies for both trawls and seines for many juvenile fishes range from approximately 30 to 70 percent

Accurate Angle Estimator for High-Frame-rate 2-D Vector Flow Imaging

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Villagómez Hoyos, Carlos Armando; Stuart, Matthias Bo; Lindskov Hansen, Kristoffer

2016-01-01

This paper presents a novel approach for estimating 2-D flow angles using a high-frame-rate ultrasound method. The angle estimator features high accuracy and low standard deviation (SD) over the full 360° range. The method is validated on Field II simulations and phantom measurements using...

Devices used by automated milking systems are similarly accurate in estimating milk yield and in collecting a representative milk sample compared with devices used by farms with conventional milk recording

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kamphuis, Claudia; Dela Rue, B.; Turner, S.A.; Petch, S.

2015-01-01

Information on accuracy of milk-sampling devices used on farms with automated milking systems (AMS) is essential for development of milk recording protocols. The hypotheses of this study were (1) devices used by AMS units are similarly accurate in estimating milk yield and in collecting

A Two-Phase Space Resection Model for Accurate Topographic Reconstruction from Lunar Imagery with PushbroomScanners.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Xuemiao; Zhang, Huaidong; Han, Guoqiang; Kwan, Kin Chung; Pang, Wai-Man; Fang, Jiaming; Zhao, Gansen

2016-04-11

Exterior orientation parameters' (EOP) estimation using space resection plays an important role in topographic reconstruction for push broom scanners. However, existing models of space resection are highly sensitive to errors in data. Unfortunately, for lunar imagery, the altitude data at the ground control points (GCPs) for space resection are error-prone. Thus, existing models fail to produce reliable EOPs. Motivated by a finding that for push broom scanners, angular rotations of EOPs can be estimated independent of the altitude data and only involving the geographic data at the GCPs, which are already provided, hence, we divide the modeling of space resection into two phases. Firstly, we estimate the angular rotations based on the reliable geographic data using our proposed mathematical model. Then, with the accurate angular rotations, the collinear equations for space resection are simplified into a linear problem, and the global optimal solution for the spatial position of EOPs can always be achieved. Moreover, a certainty term is integrated to penalize the unreliable altitude data for increasing the error tolerance. Experimental results evidence that our model can obtain more accurate EOPs and topographic maps not only for the simulated data, but also for the real data from Chang'E-1, compared to the existing space resection model.

A Two-Phase Space Resection Model for Accurate Topographic Reconstruction from Lunar Imagery with PushbroomScanners

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xuemiao Xu

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Exterior orientation parameters’ (EOP estimation using space resection plays an important role in topographic reconstruction for push broom scanners. However, existing models of space resection are highly sensitive to errors in data. Unfortunately, for lunar imagery, the altitude data at the ground control points (GCPs for space resection are error-prone. Thus, existing models fail to produce reliable EOPs. Motivated by a finding that for push broom scanners, angular rotations of EOPs can be estimated independent of the altitude data and only involving the geographic data at the GCPs, which are already provided, hence, we divide the modeling of space resection into two phases. Firstly, we estimate the angular rotations based on the reliable geographic data using our proposed mathematical model. Then, with the accurate angular rotations, the collinear equations for space resection are simplified into a linear problem, and the global optimal solution for the spatial position of EOPs can always be achieved. Moreover, a certainty term is integrated to penalize the unreliable altitude data for increasing the error tolerance. Experimental results evidence that our model can obtain more accurate EOPs and topographic maps not only for the simulated data, but also for the real data from Chang’E-1, compared to the existing space resection model.

Counting Cats: Spatially Explicit Population Estimates of Cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus Using Unstructured Sampling Data.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Femke Broekhuis

Full Text Available Many ecological theories and species conservation programmes rely on accurate estimates of population density. Accurate density estimation, especially for species facing rapid declines, requires the application of rigorous field and analytical methods. However, obtaining accurate density estimates of carnivores can be challenging as carnivores naturally exist at relatively low densities and are often elusive and wide-ranging. In this study, we employ an unstructured spatial sampling field design along with a Bayesian sex-specific spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR analysis, to provide the first rigorous population density estimates of cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus in the Maasai Mara, Kenya. We estimate adult cheetah density to be between 1.28 ± 0.315 and 1.34 ± 0.337 individuals/100km2 across four candidate models specified in our analysis. Our spatially explicit approach revealed 'hotspots' of cheetah density, highlighting that cheetah are distributed heterogeneously across the landscape. The SECR models incorporated a movement range parameter which indicated that male cheetah moved four times as much as females, possibly because female movement was restricted by their reproductive status and/or the spatial distribution of prey. We show that SECR can be used for spatially unstructured data to successfully characterise the spatial distribution of a low density species and also estimate population density when sample size is small. Our sampling and modelling framework will help determine spatial and temporal variation in cheetah densities, providing a foundation for their conservation and management. Based on our results we encourage other researchers to adopt a similar approach in estimating densities of individually recognisable species.

Counting Cats: Spatially Explicit Population Estimates of Cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) Using Unstructured Sampling Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Broekhuis, Femke; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M

2016-01-01

Many ecological theories and species conservation programmes rely on accurate estimates of population density. Accurate density estimation, especially for species facing rapid declines, requires the application of rigorous field and analytical methods. However, obtaining accurate density estimates of carnivores can be challenging as carnivores naturally exist at relatively low densities and are often elusive and wide-ranging. In this study, we employ an unstructured spatial sampling field design along with a Bayesian sex-specific spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) analysis, to provide the first rigorous population density estimates of cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) in the Maasai Mara, Kenya. We estimate adult cheetah density to be between 1.28 ± 0.315 and 1.34 ± 0.337 individuals/100km2 across four candidate models specified in our analysis. Our spatially explicit approach revealed 'hotspots' of cheetah density, highlighting that cheetah are distributed heterogeneously across the landscape. The SECR models incorporated a movement range parameter which indicated that male cheetah moved four times as much as females, possibly because female movement was restricted by their reproductive status and/or the spatial distribution of prey. We show that SECR can be used for spatially unstructured data to successfully characterise the spatial distribution of a low density species and also estimate population density when sample size is small. Our sampling and modelling framework will help determine spatial and temporal variation in cheetah densities, providing a foundation for their conservation and management. Based on our results we encourage other researchers to adopt a similar approach in estimating densities of individually recognisable species.

Easy Leaf Area: Automated digital image analysis for rapid and accurate measurement of leaf area.

Science.gov (United States)

Easlon, Hsien Ming; Bloom, Arnold J

2014-07-01

Measurement of leaf areas from digital photographs has traditionally required significant user input unless backgrounds are carefully masked. Easy Leaf Area was developed to batch process hundreds of Arabidopsis rosette images in minutes, removing background artifacts and saving results to a spreadsheet-ready CSV file. • Easy Leaf Area uses the color ratios of each pixel to distinguish leaves and calibration areas from their background and compares leaf pixel counts to a red calibration area to eliminate the need for camera distance calculations or manual ruler scale measurement that other software methods typically require. Leaf areas estimated by this software from images taken with a camera phone were more accurate than ImageJ estimates from flatbed scanner images. • Easy Leaf Area provides an easy-to-use method for rapid measurement of leaf area and nondestructive estimation of canopy area from digital images.

How accurately can 21cm tomography constrain cosmology?

Science.gov (United States)

Mao, Yi; Tegmark, Max; McQuinn, Matthew; Zaldarriaga, Matias; Zahn, Oliver

2008-07-01

There is growing interest in using 3-dimensional neutral hydrogen mapping with the redshifted 21 cm line as a cosmological probe. However, its utility depends on many assumptions. To aid experimental planning and design, we quantify how the precision with which cosmological parameters can be measured depends on a broad range of assumptions, focusing on the 21 cm signal from 6noise, to uncertainties in the reionization history, and to the level of contamination from astrophysical foregrounds. We derive simple analytic estimates for how various assumptions affect an experiment’s sensitivity, and we find that the modeling of reionization is the most important, followed by the array layout. We present an accurate yet robust method for measuring cosmological parameters that exploits the fact that the ionization power spectra are rather smooth functions that can be accurately fit by 7 phenomenological parameters. We find that for future experiments, marginalizing over these nuisance parameters may provide constraints almost as tight on the cosmology as if 21 cm tomography measured the matter power spectrum directly. A future square kilometer array optimized for 21 cm tomography could improve the sensitivity to spatial curvature and neutrino masses by up to 2 orders of magnitude, to ΔΩk≈0.0002 and Δmν≈0.007eV, and give a 4σ detection of the spectral index running predicted by the simplest inflation models.

A systematic approach for the accurate non-invasive estimation of blood glucose utilizing a novel light-tissue interaction adaptive modelling scheme

Science.gov (United States)

Rybynok, V. O.; Kyriacou, P. A.

2007-10-01

Diabetes is one of the biggest health challenges of the 21st century. The obesity epidemic, sedentary lifestyles and an ageing population mean prevalence of the condition is currently doubling every generation. Diabetes is associated with serious chronic ill health, disability and premature mortality. Long-term complications including heart disease, stroke, blindness, kidney disease and amputations, make the greatest contribution to the costs of diabetes care. Many of these long-term effects could be avoided with earlier, more effective monitoring and treatment. Currently, blood glucose can only be monitored through the use of invasive techniques. To date there is no widely accepted and readily available non-invasive monitoring technique to measure blood glucose despite the many attempts. This paper challenges one of the most difficult non-invasive monitoring techniques, that of blood glucose, and proposes a new novel approach that will enable the accurate, and calibration free estimation of glucose concentration in blood. This approach is based on spectroscopic techniques and a new adaptive modelling scheme. The theoretical implementation and the effectiveness of the adaptive modelling scheme for this application has been described and a detailed mathematical evaluation has been employed to prove that such a scheme has the capability of extracting accurately the concentration of glucose from a complex biological media.

A systematic approach for the accurate non-invasive estimation of blood glucose utilizing a novel light-tissue interaction adaptive modelling scheme

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rybynok, V O; Kyriacou, P A [City University, London (United Kingdom)

2007-10-15

Diabetes is one of the biggest health challenges of the 21st century. The obesity epidemic, sedentary lifestyles and an ageing population mean prevalence of the condition is currently doubling every generation. Diabetes is associated with serious chronic ill health, disability and premature mortality. Long-term complications including heart disease, stroke, blindness, kidney disease and amputations, make the greatest contribution to the costs of diabetes care. Many of these long-term effects could be avoided with earlier, more effective monitoring and treatment. Currently, blood glucose can only be monitored through the use of invasive techniques. To date there is no widely accepted and readily available non-invasive monitoring technique to measure blood glucose despite the many attempts. This paper challenges one of the most difficult non-invasive monitoring techniques, that of blood glucose, and proposes a new novel approach that will enable the accurate, and calibration free estimation of glucose concentration in blood. This approach is based on spectroscopic techniques and a new adaptive modelling scheme. The theoretical implementation and the effectiveness of the adaptive modelling scheme for this application has been described and a detailed mathematical evaluation has been employed to prove that such a scheme has the capability of extracting accurately the concentration of glucose from a complex biological media.

A systematic approach for the accurate non-invasive estimation of blood glucose utilizing a novel light-tissue interaction adaptive modelling scheme

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rybynok, V O; Kyriacou, P A

2007-01-01

Diabetes is one of the biggest health challenges of the 21st century. The obesity epidemic, sedentary lifestyles and an ageing population mean prevalence of the condition is currently doubling every generation. Diabetes is associated with serious chronic ill health, disability and premature mortality. Long-term complications including heart disease, stroke, blindness, kidney disease and amputations, make the greatest contribution to the costs of diabetes care. Many of these long-term effects could be avoided with earlier, more effective monitoring and treatment. Currently, blood glucose can only be monitored through the use of invasive techniques. To date there is no widely accepted and readily available non-invasive monitoring technique to measure blood glucose despite the many attempts. This paper challenges one of the most difficult non-invasive monitoring techniques, that of blood glucose, and proposes a new novel approach that will enable the accurate, and calibration free estimation of glucose concentration in blood. This approach is based on spectroscopic techniques and a new adaptive modelling scheme. The theoretical implementation and the effectiveness of the adaptive modelling scheme for this application has been described and a detailed mathematical evaluation has been employed to prove that such a scheme has the capability of extracting accurately the concentration of glucose from a complex biological media

Store turnover as a predictor of food and beverage provider turnover and associated dietary intake estimates in very remote Indigenous communities.

Science.gov (United States)

Wycherley, Thomas; Ferguson, Megan; O'Dea, Kerin; McMahon, Emma; Liberato, Selma; Brimblecombe, Julie

2016-12-01

Determine how very-remote Indigenous community (RIC) food and beverage (F&B) turnover quantities and associated dietary intake estimates derived from only stores, compare with values derived from all community F&B providers. F&B turnover quantity and associated dietary intake estimates (energy, micro/macronutrients and major contributing food types) were derived from 12-months transaction data of all F&B providers in three RICs (NT, Australia). F&B turnover quantities and dietary intake estimates from only stores (plus only the primary store in multiple-store communities) were expressed as a proportion of complete F&B provider turnover values. Food types and macronutrient distribution (%E) estimates were quantitatively compared. Combined stores F&B turnover accounted for the majority of F&B quantity (98.1%) and absolute dietary intake estimates (energy [97.8%], macronutrients [≥96.7%] and micronutrients [≥83.8%]). Macronutrient distribution estimates from combined stores and only the primary store closely aligned complete provider estimates (≤0.9% absolute). Food types were similar using combined stores, primary store or complete provider turnover. Evaluating combined stores F&B turnover represents an efficient method to estimate total F&B turnover quantity and associated dietary intake in RICs. In multiple-store communities, evaluating only primary store F&B turnover provides an efficient estimate of macronutrient distribution and major food types. © 2016 Public Health Association of Australia.

Estimating the development assistance for health provided to faith-based organizations, 1990-2013.

Science.gov (United States)

Haakenstad, Annie; Johnson, Elizabeth; Graves, Casey; Olivier, Jill; Duff, Jean; Dieleman, Joseph L

2015-01-01

Faith-based organizations (FBOs) have been active in the health sector for decades. Recently, the role of FBOs in global health has been of increased interest. However, little is known about the magnitude and trends in development assistance for health (DAH) channeled through these organizations. Data were collected from the 21 most recent editions of the Report of Voluntary Agencies. These reports provide information on the revenue and expenditure of organizations. Project-level data were also collected and reviewed from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. More than 1,900 non-governmental organizations received funds from at least one of these three organizations. Background information on these organizations was examined by two independent reviewers to identify the amount of funding channeled through FBOs. In 2013, total spending by the FBOs identified in the VolAg amounted to US$1.53 billion. In 1990, FB0s spent 34.1% of total DAH provided by private voluntary organizations reported in the VolAg. In 2013, FBOs expended 31.0%. Funds provided by the Global Fund to FBOs have grown since 2002, amounting to $80.9 million in 2011, or 16.7% of the Global Fund's contributions to NGOs. In 2011, the Gates Foundation's contributions to FBOs amounted to $7.1 million, or 1.1% of the total provided to NGOs. Development assistance partners exhibit a range of preferences with respect to the amount of funds provided to FBOs. Overall, estimates show that FBOS have maintained a substantial and consistent share over time, in line with overall spending in global health on NGOs. These estimates provide the foundation for further research on the spending trends and effectiveness of FBOs in global health.

Estimating the development assistance for health provided to faith-based organizations, 1990-2013.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Annie Haakenstad

Full Text Available Faith-based organizations (FBOs have been active in the health sector for decades. Recently, the role of FBOs in global health has been of increased interest. However, little is known about the magnitude and trends in development assistance for health (DAH channeled through these organizations.Data were collected from the 21 most recent editions of the Report of Voluntary Agencies. These reports provide information on the revenue and expenditure of organizations. Project-level data were also collected and reviewed from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. More than 1,900 non-governmental organizations received funds from at least one of these three organizations. Background information on these organizations was examined by two independent reviewers to identify the amount of funding channeled through FBOs.In 2013, total spending by the FBOs identified in the VolAg amounted to US$1.53 billion. In 1990, FB0s spent 34.1% of total DAH provided by private voluntary organizations reported in the VolAg. In 2013, FBOs expended 31.0%. Funds provided by the Global Fund to FBOs have grown since 2002, amounting to $80.9 million in 2011, or 16.7% of the Global Fund's contributions to NGOs. In 2011, the Gates Foundation's contributions to FBOs amounted to $7.1 million, or 1.1% of the total provided to NGOs.Development assistance partners exhibit a range of preferences with respect to the amount of funds provided to FBOs. Overall, estimates show that FBOS have maintained a substantial and consistent share over time, in line with overall spending in global health on NGOs. These estimates provide the foundation for further research on the spending trends and effectiveness of FBOs in global health.

Accurate determination of antenna directivity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dich, Mikael

1997-01-01

The derivation of a formula for accurate estimation of the total radiated power from a transmitting antenna for which the radiated power density is known in a finite number of points on the far-field sphere is presented. The main application of the formula is determination of directivity from power......-pattern measurements. The derivation is based on the theory of spherical wave expansion of electromagnetic fields, which also establishes a simple criterion for the required number of samples of the power density. An array antenna consisting of Hertzian dipoles is used to test the accuracy and rate of convergence...

Accurate Recovery of H i Velocity Dispersion from Radio Interferometers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ianjamasimanana, R. [Max-Planck Institut für Astronomie, Königstuhl 17, D-69117, Heidelberg (Germany); Blok, W. J. G. de [Netherlands Institute for Radio Astronomy (ASTRON), Postbus 2, 7990 AA Dwingeloo (Netherlands); Heald, George H., E-mail: roger@mpia.de, E-mail: blok@astron.nl, E-mail: George.Heald@csiro.au [Kapteyn Astronomical Institute, University of Groningen, P.O. Box 800, 9700 AV, Groningen (Netherlands)

2017-05-01

Gas velocity dispersion measures the amount of disordered motion of a rotating disk. Accurate estimates of this parameter are of the utmost importance because the parameter is directly linked to disk stability and star formation. A global measure of the gas velocity dispersion can be inferred from the width of the atomic hydrogen (H i) 21 cm line. We explore how several systematic effects involved in the production of H i cubes affect the estimate of H i velocity dispersion. We do so by comparing the H i velocity dispersion derived from different types of data cubes provided by The H i Nearby Galaxy Survey. We find that residual-scaled cubes best recover the H i velocity dispersion, independent of the weighting scheme used and for a large range of signal-to-noise ratio. For H i observations, where the dirty beam is substantially different from a Gaussian, the velocity dispersion values are overestimated unless the cubes are cleaned close to (e.g., ∼1.5 times) the noise level.

Approaching system equilibrium with accurate or not accurate feedback information in a two-route system

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Xiao-mei; Xie, Dong-fan; Li, Qi

2015-02-01

With the development of intelligent transport system, advanced information feedback strategies have been developed to reduce traffic congestion and enhance the capacity. However, previous strategies provide accurate information to travelers and our simulation results show that accurate information brings negative effects, especially in delay case. Because travelers prefer to the best condition route with accurate information, and delayed information cannot reflect current traffic condition but past. Then travelers make wrong routing decisions, causing the decrease of the capacity and the increase of oscillations and the system deviating from the equilibrium. To avoid the negative effect, bounded rationality is taken into account by introducing a boundedly rational threshold BR. When difference between two routes is less than the BR, routes have equal probability to be chosen. The bounded rationality is helpful to improve the efficiency in terms of capacity, oscillation and the gap deviating from the system equilibrium.

Providing low-budget estimations of carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas emissions in agricultural wetlands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lloyd, Colin R; Rebelo, Lisa-Maria; Max Finlayson, C

2013-01-01

The conversion of wetlands to agriculture through drainage and flooding, and the burning of wetland areas for agriculture have important implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) production and changing carbon stocks. However, the estimation of net GHG changes from mitigation practices in agricultural wetlands is complex compared to dryland crops. Agricultural wetlands have more complicated carbon and nitrogen cycles with both above- and below-ground processes and export of carbon via vertical and horizontal movement of water through the wetland. This letter reviews current research methodologies in estimating greenhouse gas production and provides guidance on the provision of robust estimates of carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas emissions in agricultural wetlands through the use of low cost reliable and sustainable measurement, modelling and remote sensing applications. The guidance is highly applicable to, and aimed at, wetlands such as those in the tropics and sub-tropics, where complex research infrastructure may not exist, or agricultural wetlands located in remote regions, where frequent visits by monitoring scientists prove difficult. In conclusion, the proposed measurement-modelling approach provides guidance on an affordable solution for mitigation and for investigating the consequences of wetland agricultural practice on GHG production, ecological resilience and possible changes to agricultural yields, variety choice and farming practice. (letter)

Improving photometric redshift estimation using GPZ: size information, post processing, and improved photometry

Science.gov (United States)

Gomes, Zahra; Jarvis, Matt J.; Almosallam, Ibrahim A.; Roberts, Stephen J.

2018-03-01

The next generation of large-scale imaging surveys (such as those conducted with the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope and Euclid) will require accurate photometric redshifts in order to optimally extract cosmological information. Gaussian Process for photometric redshift estimation (GPZ) is a promising new method that has been proven to provide efficient, accurate photometric redshift estimations with reliable variance predictions. In this paper, we investigate a number of methods for improving the photometric redshift estimations obtained using GPZ (but which are also applicable to others). We use spectroscopy from the Galaxy and Mass Assembly Data Release 2 with a limiting magnitude of r Program Data Release 1 and find that it produces significant improvements in accuracy, similar to the effect of including additional features.

Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis of Flammability Properties of Chemicals using Group-Contribution Property Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Frutiger, Jerome; Abildskov, Jens; Sin, Gürkan

Process safety studies and assessments rely on accurate property data. Flammability data like the lower and upper flammability limit (LFL and UFL) play an important role in quantifying the risk of fire and explosion. If experimental values are not available for the safety analysis due to cost...... or time constraints, property prediction models like group contribution (GC) models can estimate flammability data. The estimation needs to be accurate, reliable and as less time consuming as possible. However, GC property prediction methods frequently lack rigorous uncertainty analysis. Hence....... In this study, the MG-GC-factors are estimated using a systematic data and model evaluation methodology in the following way: 1) Data. Experimental flammability data is used from AIChE DIPPR 801 Database. 2) Initialization and sequential parameter estimation. An approximation using linear algebra provides...

Combining Neural Networks with Existing Methods to Estimate 1 in 100-Year Flood Event Magnitudes

Science.gov (United States)

Newson, A.; See, L.

2005-12-01

Over the last fifteen years artificial neural networks (ANN) have been shown to be advantageous for the solution of many hydrological modelling problems. The use of ANNs for flood magnitude estimation in ungauged catchments, however, is a relatively new and under researched area. In this paper ANNs are used to make estimates of the magnitude of the 100-year flood event (Q100) for a number of ungauged catchments. The data used in this study were provided by the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology's Flood Estimation Handbook (FEH), which contains information on catchments across the UK. Sixteen catchment descriptors for 719 catchments were used to train an ANN, which was split into a training, validation and test data set. The goodness-of-fit statistics on the test data set indicated good model performance, with an r-squared value of 0.8 and a coefficient of efficiency of 79 percent. Data for twelve ungauged catchments were then put through the trained ANN to produce estimates of Q100. Two other accepted methodologies were also employed: the FEH statistical method and the FSR (Flood Studies Report) design storm technique, both of which are used to produce flood frequency estimates. The advantage of developing an ANN model is that it provides a third figure to aid a hydrologist in making an accurate estimate. For six of the twelve catchments, there was a relatively low spread between estimates. In these instances, an estimate of Q100 could be made with a fair degree of certainty. Of the remaining six catchments, three had areas greater than 1000km2, which means the FSR design storm estimate cannot be used. Armed with the ANN model and the FEH statistical method the hydrologist still has two possible estimates to consider. For these three catchments, the estimates were also fairly similar, providing additional confidence to the estimation. In summary, the findings of this study have shown that an accurate estimation of Q100 can be made using the catchment descriptors of

Estimating Jupiter’s Gravity Field Using Juno Measurements, Trajectory Estimation Analysis, and a Flow Model Optimization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Galanti, Eli; Kaspi, Yohai; Durante, Daniele; Finocchiaro, Stefano; Iess, Luciano

2017-01-01

The upcoming Juno spacecraft measurements have the potential of improving our knowledge of Jupiter’s gravity field. The analysis of the Juno Doppler data will provide a very accurate reconstruction of spatial gravity variations, but these measurements will be very accurate only over a limited latitudinal range. In order to deduce the full gravity field of Jupiter, additional information needs to be incorporated into the analysis, especially regarding the Jovian flow structure and its depth, which can influence the measured gravity field. In this study we propose a new iterative method for the estimation of the Jupiter gravity field, using a simulated Juno trajectory, a trajectory estimation model, and an adjoint-based inverse model for the flow dynamics. We test this method both for zonal harmonics only and with a full gravity field including tesseral harmonics. The results show that this method can fit some of the gravitational harmonics better to the “measured” harmonics, mainly because of the added information from the dynamical model, which includes the flow structure. Thus, it is suggested that the method presented here has the potential of improving the accuracy of the expected gravity harmonics estimated from the Juno and Cassini radio science experiments.

Estimating Jupiter’s Gravity Field Using Juno Measurements, Trajectory Estimation Analysis, and a Flow Model Optimization

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Galanti, Eli; Kaspi, Yohai [Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot (Israel); Durante, Daniele; Finocchiaro, Stefano; Iess, Luciano, E-mail: eli.galanti@weizmann.ac.il [Dipartimento di Ingegneria Meccanica e Aerospaziale, Sapienza Universita di Roma, Rome (Italy)

2017-07-01

The upcoming Juno spacecraft measurements have the potential of improving our knowledge of Jupiter’s gravity field. The analysis of the Juno Doppler data will provide a very accurate reconstruction of spatial gravity variations, but these measurements will be very accurate only over a limited latitudinal range. In order to deduce the full gravity field of Jupiter, additional information needs to be incorporated into the analysis, especially regarding the Jovian flow structure and its depth, which can influence the measured gravity field. In this study we propose a new iterative method for the estimation of the Jupiter gravity field, using a simulated Juno trajectory, a trajectory estimation model, and an adjoint-based inverse model for the flow dynamics. We test this method both for zonal harmonics only and with a full gravity field including tesseral harmonics. The results show that this method can fit some of the gravitational harmonics better to the “measured” harmonics, mainly because of the added information from the dynamical model, which includes the flow structure. Thus, it is suggested that the method presented here has the potential of improving the accuracy of the expected gravity harmonics estimated from the Juno and Cassini radio science experiments.

Automatic estimation of pressure-dependent rate coefficients.

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, Joshua W; Goldsmith, C Franklin; Green, William H

2012-01-21

A general framework is presented for accurately and efficiently estimating the phenomenological pressure-dependent rate coefficients for reaction networks of arbitrary size and complexity using only high-pressure-limit information. Two aspects of this framework are discussed in detail. First, two methods of estimating the density of states of the species in the network are presented, including a new method based on characteristic functional group frequencies. Second, three methods of simplifying the full master equation model of the network to a single set of phenomenological rates are discussed, including a new method based on the reservoir state and pseudo-steady state approximations. Both sets of methods are evaluated in the context of the chemically-activated reaction of acetyl with oxygen. All three simplifications of the master equation are usually accurate, but each fails in certain situations, which are discussed. The new methods usually provide good accuracy at a computational cost appropriate for automated reaction mechanism generation.

Automatic estimation of pressure-dependent rate coefficients

KAUST Repository

Allen, Joshua W.; Goldsmith, C. Franklin; Green, William H.

2012-01-01

A general framework is presented for accurately and efficiently estimating the phenomenological pressure-dependent rate coefficients for reaction networks of arbitrary size and complexity using only high-pressure-limit information. Two aspects of this framework are discussed in detail. First, two methods of estimating the density of states of the species in the network are presented, including a new method based on characteristic functional group frequencies. Second, three methods of simplifying the full master equation model of the network to a single set of phenomenological rates are discussed, including a new method based on the reservoir state and pseudo-steady state approximations. Both sets of methods are evaluated in the context of the chemically-activated reaction of acetyl with oxygen. All three simplifications of the master equation are usually accurate, but each fails in certain situations, which are discussed. The new methods usually provide good accuracy at a computational cost appropriate for automated reaction mechanism generation. This journal is © the Owner Societies.

Research on Modified Root-MUSIC Algorithm of DOA Estimation Based on Covariance Matrix Reconstruction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Changgan SHU

2014-09-01

Full Text Available In the standard root multiple signal classification algorithm, the performance of direction of arrival estimation will reduce and even lose effect in circumstances that a low signal noise ratio and a small signals interval. By reconstructing and weighting the covariance matrix of received signal, the modified algorithm can provide more accurate estimation results. The computer simulation and performance analysis are given next, which show that under the condition of lower signal noise ratio and stronger correlation between signals, the proposed modified algorithm could provide preferable azimuth estimating performance than the standard method.

How many standard area diagram sets are needed for accurate disease severity assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Standard area diagram sets (SADs) are widely used in plant pathology: a rater estimates disease severity by comparing an unknown sample to actual severities in the SADs and interpolates an estimate as accurately as possible (although some SADs have been developed for categorizing disease too). Most ...

Adaptive vehicle motion estimation and prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Liang; Thorpe, Chuck E.

1999-01-01

Accurate motion estimation and reliable maneuver prediction enable an automated car to react quickly and correctly to the rapid maneuvers of the other vehicles, and so allow safe and efficient navigation. In this paper, we present a car tracking system which provides motion estimation, maneuver prediction and detection of the tracked car. The three strategies employed - adaptive motion modeling, adaptive data sampling, and adaptive model switching probabilities - result in an adaptive interacting multiple model algorithm (AIMM). The experimental results on simulated and real data demonstrate that our tracking system is reliable, flexible, and robust. The adaptive tracking makes the system intelligent and useful in various autonomous driving tasks.

A Time--Independent Born--Oppenheimer Approximation with Exponentially Accurate Error Estimates

CERN Document Server

Hagedorn, G A

2004-01-01

We consider a simple molecular--type quantum system in which the nuclei have one degree of freedom and the electrons have two levels. The Hamiltonian has the form \\[ H(\\epsilon)\\ =\\ -\\,\\frac{\\epsilon^4}2\\, \\frac{\\partial^2\\phantom{i}}{\\partial y^2}\\ +\\ h(y), \\] where $h(y)$ is a $2\\times 2$ real symmetric matrix. Near a local minimum of an electron level ${\\cal E}(y)$ that is not at a level crossing, we construct quasimodes that are exponentially accurate in the square of the Born--Oppenheimer parameter $\\epsilon$ by optimal truncation of the Rayleigh--Schr\\"odinger series. That is, we construct $E_\\epsilon$ and $\\Psi_\\epsilon$, such that $\\|\\Psi_\\epsilon\\|\\,=\\,O(1)$ and \\[ \\|\\,(H(\\epsilon)\\,-\\,E_\\epsilon))\\,\\Psi_\\epsilon\\,\\|\\ 0. \\

CASPER: Embedding Power Estimation and Hardware-Controlled Power Management in a Cycle-Accurate Micro-Architecture Simulation Platform for Many-Core Multi-Threading Heterogeneous Processors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arun Ravindran

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Despite the promising performance improvement observed in emerging many-core architectures in high performance processors, high power consumption prohibitively affects their use and marketability in the low-energy sectors, such as embedded processors, network processors and application specific instruction processors (ASIPs. While most chip architects design power-efficient processors by finding an optimal power-performance balance in their design, some use sophisticated on-chip autonomous power management units, which dynamically reduce the voltage or frequencies of idle cores and hence extend battery life and reduce operating costs. For large scale designs of many-core processors, a holistic approach integrating both these techniques at different levels of abstraction can potentially achieve maximal power savings. In this paper we present CASPER, a robust instruction trace driven cycle-accurate many-core multi-threading micro-architecture simulation platform where we have incorporated power estimation models of a wide variety of tunable many-core micro-architectural design parameters, thus enabling processor architects to explore a sufficiently large design space and achieve power-efficient designs. Additionally CASPER is designed to accommodate cycle-accurate models of hardware controlled power management units, enabling architects to experiment with and evaluate different autonomous power-saving mechanisms to study the run-time power-performance trade-offs in embedded many-core processors. We have implemented two such techniques in CASPER–Chipwide Dynamic Voltage and Frequency Scaling, and Performance Aware Core-Specific Frequency Scaling, which show average power savings of 35.9% and 26.2% on a baseline 4-core SPARC based architecture respectively. This power saving data accounts for the power consumption of the power management units themselves. The CASPER simulation platform also provides users with complete support of SPARCV9

Bracken: estimating species abundance in metagenomics data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jennifer Lu

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Metagenomic experiments attempt to characterize microbial communities using high-throughput DNA sequencing. Identification of the microorganisms in a sample provides information about the genetic profile, population structure, and role of microorganisms within an environment. Until recently, most metagenomics studies focused on high-level characterization at the level of phyla, or alternatively sequenced the 16S ribosomal RNA gene that is present in bacterial species. As the cost of sequencing has fallen, though, metagenomics experiments have increasingly used unbiased shotgun sequencing to capture all the organisms in a sample. This approach requires a method for estimating abundance directly from the raw read data. Here we describe a fast, accurate new method that computes the abundance at the species level using the reads collected in a metagenomics experiment. Bracken (Bayesian Reestimation of Abundance after Classification with KrakEN uses the taxonomic assignments made by Kraken, a very fast read-level classifier, along with information about the genomes themselves to estimate abundance at the species level, the genus level, or above. We demonstrate that Bracken can produce accurate species- and genus-level abundance estimates even when a sample contains multiple near-identical species.

Mixture models reveal multiple positional bias types in RNA-Seq data and lead to accurate transcript concentration estimates.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andreas Tuerk

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Accuracy of transcript quantification with RNA-Seq is negatively affected by positional fragment bias. This article introduces Mix2 (rd. "mixquare", a transcript quantification method which uses a mixture of probability distributions to model and thereby neutralize the effects of positional fragment bias. The parameters of Mix2 are trained by Expectation Maximization resulting in simultaneous transcript abundance and bias estimates. We compare Mix2 to Cufflinks, RSEM, eXpress and PennSeq; state-of-the-art quantification methods implementing some form of bias correction. On four synthetic biases we show that the accuracy of Mix2 overall exceeds the accuracy of the other methods and that its bias estimates converge to the correct solution. We further evaluate Mix2 on real RNA-Seq data from the Microarray and Sequencing Quality Control (MAQC, SEQC Consortia. On MAQC data, Mix2 achieves improved correlation to qPCR measurements with a relative increase in R2 between 4% and 50%. Mix2 also yields repeatable concentration estimates across technical replicates with a relative increase in R2 between 8% and 47% and reduced standard deviation across the full concentration range. We further observe more accurate detection of differential expression with a relative increase in true positives between 74% and 378% for 5% false positives. In addition, Mix2 reveals 5 dominant biases in MAQC data deviating from the common assumption of a uniform fragment distribution. On SEQC data, Mix2 yields higher consistency between measured and predicted concentration ratios. A relative error of 20% or less is obtained for 51% of transcripts by Mix2, 40% of transcripts by Cufflinks and RSEM and 30% by eXpress. Titration order consistency is correct for 47% of transcripts for Mix2, 41% for Cufflinks and RSEM and 34% for eXpress. We, further, observe improved repeatability across laboratory sites with a relative increase in R2 between 8% and 44% and reduced standard deviation.

Connecting Satellite-Based Precipitation Estimates to Users

Science.gov (United States)

Huffman, George J.; Bolvin, David T.; Nelkin, Eric

2018-01-01

Beginning in 1997, the Merged Precipitation Group at NASA Goddard has distributed gridded global precipitation products built by combining satellite and surface gauge data. This started with the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), then the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), and recently the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission (IMERG). This 20+-year (and on-going) activity has yielded an important set of insights and lessons learned for making state-of-the-art precipitation data accessible to the diverse communities of users. Merged-data products critically depend on the input sensors and the retrieval algorithms providing accurate, reliable estimates, but it is also important to provide ancillary information that helps users determine suitability for their application. We typically provide fields of estimated random error, and recently reintroduced the quality index concept at user request. Also at user request we have added a (diagnostic) field of estimated precipitation phase. Over time, increasingly more ancillary fields have been introduced for intermediate products that give expert users insight into the detailed performance of the combination algorithm, such as individual merged microwave and microwave-calibrated infrared estimates, the contributing microwave sensor types, and the relative influence of the infrared estimate.

Sensorless SPMSM Position Estimation Using Position Estimation Error Suppression Control and EKF in Wide Speed Range

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhanshan Wang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The control of a high performance alternative current (AC motor drive under sensorless operation needs the accurate estimation of rotor position. In this paper, one method of accurately estimating rotor position by using both motor complex number model based position estimation and position estimation error suppression proportion integral (PI controller is proposed for the sensorless control of the surface permanent magnet synchronous motor (SPMSM. In order to guarantee the accuracy of rotor position estimation in the flux-weakening region, one scheme of identifying the permanent magnet flux of SPMSM by extended Kalman filter (EKF is also proposed, which formed the effective combination method to realize the sensorless control of SPMSM with high accuracy. The simulation results demonstrated the validity and feasibility of the proposed position/speed estimation system.

Estimating the Cost of Providing Foundational Public Health Services.

Science.gov (United States)

Mamaril, Cezar Brian C; Mays, Glen P; Branham, Douglas Keith; Bekemeier, Betty; Marlowe, Justin; Timsina, Lava

2017-12-28

To estimate the cost of resources required to implement a set of Foundational Public Health Services (FPHS) as recommended by the Institute of Medicine. A stochastic simulation model was used to generate probability distributions of input and output costs across 11 FPHS domains. We used an implementation attainment scale to estimate costs of fully implementing FPHS. We use data collected from a diverse cohort of 19 public health agencies located in three states that implemented the FPHS cost estimation methodology in their agencies during 2014-2015. The average agency incurred costs of $48 per capita implementing FPHS at their current attainment levels with a coefficient of variation (CV) of 16 percent. Achieving full FPHS implementation would require $82 per capita (CV=19 percent), indicating an estimated resource gap of $34 per capita. Substantial variation in costs exists across communities in resources currently devoted to implementing FPHS, with even larger variation in resources needed for full attainment. Reducing geographic inequities in FPHS may require novel financing mechanisms and delivery models that allow health agencies to have robust roles within the health system and realize a minimum package of public health services for the nation. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Dual states estimation of a subsurface flow-transport coupled model using ensemble Kalman filtering

KAUST Repository

El Gharamti, Mohamad; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Valstar, Johan R.

2013-01-01

Modeling the spread of subsurface contaminants requires coupling a groundwater flow model with a contaminant transport model. Such coupling may provide accurate estimates of future subsurface hydrologic states if essential flow and contaminant data

Dynamic state estimation and prediction for real-time control and operation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nguyen, P.H.; Venayagamoorthy, G.K.; Kling, W.L.; Ribeiro, P.F.

2013-01-01

Real-time control and operation are crucial to deal with increasing complexity of modern power systems. To effectively enable those functions, it is required a Dynamic State Estimation (DSE) function to provide accurate network state variables at the right moment and predict their trends ahead. This

Adaptive estimation of the electromotive force of the lithium-ion battery after current interruption for an accurate state-of-charge and capacity determination

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Waag, Wladislaw; Sauer, Dirk Uwe

2013-01-01

Highlights: • New adaptive approach for the EMF estimation. • The EMF is estimated by observing the voltage change after the current interruption. • The approach enables an accurate SoC and capacity determination. • Real-time capable algorithm. - Abstract: The online estimation of battery states and parameters is one of the challenging tasks when battery is used as a part of the pure electric or hybrid energy system. For the determination of the available energy stored in the battery, the knowledge of the present state-of-charge (SOC) and capacity of the battery is required. For SOC and capacity determination often the estimation of the battery electromotive force (EMF) is employed. The electromotive force can be measured as an open circuit voltage (OCV) of the battery when a significant time has elapsed since the current interruption. This time may take up to some hours for lithium-ion batteries and is needed to eliminate the influence of the diffusion overvoltages. This paper proposes a new approach to estimate the EMF by considering the OCV relaxation process within only some first minutes after the current interruption. The approach is based on an online fitting of an OCV relaxation model to the measured OCV relaxation curve. This model is based on an equivalent circuit consisting of a voltage source (represents the EMF) in series with the parallel connection of the resistance and a constant phase element (CPE). Based on this fitting the model parameters are determined and the EMF is estimated. The application of this method is exemplarily demonstrated for the state-of-charge and capacity estimation of the lithium-ion battery in an electrical vehicle. In the presented example the battery capacity is determined with the maximal inaccuracy of 2% using the EMF estimated at two different levels of state-of-charge. The real-time capability of the proposed algorithm is proven by its implementation on a low-cost 16-bit microcontroller (Infineon XC2287)

Estimation of Wheat Plant Density at Early Stages Using High Resolution Imagery

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shouyang Liu

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Crop density is a key agronomical trait used to manage wheat crops and estimate yield. Visual counting of plants in the field is currently the most common method used. However, it is tedious and time consuming. The main objective of this work is to develop a machine vision based method to automate the density survey of wheat at early stages. RGB images taken with a high resolution RGB camera are classified to identify the green pixels corresponding to the plants. Crop rows are extracted and the connected components (objects are identified. A neural network is then trained to estimate the number of plants in the objects using the object features. The method was evaluated over three experiments showing contrasted conditions with sowing densities ranging from 100 to 600 seeds⋅m-2. Results demonstrate that the density is accurately estimated with an average relative error of 12%. The pipeline developed here provides an efficient and accurate estimate of wheat plant density at early stages.

Frequency Diversity Array for DOA Estimation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

NAUMAN ANWAR BAIG

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The localization of targets has been presented in this article. DOA (Direction of Arrival is an important parameter to be determined by radar. The MLE (Maximum Likelihood Estimator has been widely used to accurately and efficiently estimate the DOAs of multiple targets. The targets at different ranges result in a variation in amplitude of the received signals, so an MLE estimator has to operate at all ranges. For accurate results of DOA, the complex amplitudes of multiple targets should not be much different and also the prior information of Doppler and number of targets is required. In this paper, an approach is proposed which uses the classical 2D algorithm to estimate range, Doppler and number of targets and then FDA (Frequency Diversity Array is used to focus power in a particular range. As a result, the MLE can get data from a particular range cell where all targets have almost same amplitude and thus MLE can accurately estimate the DOAs of multiple targets. Simulations and results have confirmed the effectiveness of proposed approach.

A hybrid method for accurate star tracking using star sensor and gyros.

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Jiazhen; Yang, Lie; Zhang, Hao

2017-10-01

Star tracking is the primary operating mode of star sensors. To improve tracking accuracy and efficiency, a hybrid method using a star sensor and gyroscopes is proposed in this study. In this method, the dynamic conditions of an aircraft are determined first by the estimated angular acceleration. Under low dynamic conditions, the star sensor is used to measure the star vector and the vector difference method is adopted to estimate the current angular velocity. Under high dynamic conditions, the angular velocity is obtained by the calibrated gyros. The star position is predicted based on the estimated angular velocity and calibrated gyros using the star vector measurements. The results of the semi-physical experiment show that this hybrid method is accurate and feasible. In contrast with the star vector difference and gyro-assisted methods, the star position prediction result of the hybrid method is verified to be more accurate in two different cases under the given random noise of the star centroid.

A global algorithm for estimating Absolute Salinity

Science.gov (United States)

McDougall, T. J.; Jackett, D. R.; Millero, F. J.; Pawlowicz, R.; Barker, P. M.

2012-12-01

The International Thermodynamic Equation of Seawater - 2010 has defined the thermodynamic properties of seawater in terms of a new salinity variable, Absolute Salinity, which takes into account the spatial variation of the composition of seawater. Absolute Salinity more accurately reflects the effects of the dissolved material in seawater on the thermodynamic properties (particularly density) than does Practical Salinity. When a seawater sample has standard composition (i.e. the ratios of the constituents of sea salt are the same as those of surface water of the North Atlantic), Practical Salinity can be used to accurately evaluate the thermodynamic properties of seawater. When seawater is not of standard composition, Practical Salinity alone is not sufficient and the Absolute Salinity Anomaly needs to be estimated; this anomaly is as large as 0.025 g kg-1 in the northernmost North Pacific. Here we provide an algorithm for estimating Absolute Salinity Anomaly for any location (x, y, p) in the world ocean. To develop this algorithm, we used the Absolute Salinity Anomaly that is found by comparing the density calculated from Practical Salinity to the density measured in the laboratory. These estimates of Absolute Salinity Anomaly however are limited to the number of available observations (namely 811). In order to provide a practical method that can be used at any location in the world ocean, we take advantage of approximate relationships between Absolute Salinity Anomaly and silicate concentrations (which are available globally).

A new framework for analysing automated acoustic species-detection data: occupancy estimation and optimization of recordings post-processing

Science.gov (United States)

Chambert, Thierry A.; Waddle, J. Hardin; Miller, David A.W.; Walls, Susan; Nichols, James D.

2018-01-01

The development and use of automated species-detection technologies, such as acoustic recorders, for monitoring wildlife are rapidly expanding. Automated classification algorithms provide a cost- and time-effective means to process information-rich data, but often at the cost of additional detection errors. Appropriate methods are necessary to analyse such data while dealing with the different types of detection errors.We developed a hierarchical modelling framework for estimating species occupancy from automated species-detection data. We explore design and optimization of data post-processing procedures to account for detection errors and generate accurate estimates. Our proposed method accounts for both imperfect detection and false positive errors and utilizes information about both occurrence and abundance of detections to improve estimation.Using simulations, we show that our method provides much more accurate estimates than models ignoring the abundance of detections. The same findings are reached when we apply the methods to two real datasets on North American frogs surveyed with acoustic recorders.When false positives occur, estimator accuracy can be improved when a subset of detections produced by the classification algorithm is post-validated by a human observer. We use simulations to investigate the relationship between accuracy and effort spent on post-validation, and found that very accurate occupancy estimates can be obtained with as little as 1% of data being validated.Automated monitoring of wildlife provides opportunity and challenges. Our methods for analysing automated species-detection data help to meet key challenges unique to these data and will prove useful for many wildlife monitoring programs.

Challenges associated with drunk driving measurement: combining police and self-reported data to estimate an accurate prevalence in Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Sousa, Tanara; Lunnen, Jeffrey C; Gonçalves, Veralice; Schmitz, Aurinez; Pasa, Graciela; Bastos, Tamires; Sripad, Pooja; Chandran, Aruna; Pechansky, Flavio

2013-12-01

Drunk driving is an important risk factor for road traffic crashes, injuries and deaths. After June 2008, all drivers in Brazil were subject to a "Zero Tolerance Law" with a set breath alcohol concentration of 0.1 mg/L of air. However, a loophole in this law enabled drivers to refuse breath or blood alcohol testing as it may self-incriminate. The reported prevalence of drunk driving is therefore likely a gross underestimate in many cities. To compare the prevalence of drunk driving gathered from police reports to the prevalence gathered from self-reported questionnaires administered at police sobriety roadblocks in two Brazilian capital cities, and to estimate a more accurate prevalence of drunk driving utilizing three correction techniques based upon information from those questionnaires. In August 2011 and January-February 2012, researchers from the Centre for Drug and Alcohol Research at the Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul administered a roadside interview on drunk driving practices to 805 voluntary participants in the Brazilian capital cities of Palmas and Teresina. Three techniques which include measures such as the number of persons reporting alcohol consumption in the last six hours but who had refused breath testing were used to estimate the prevalence of drunk driving. The prevalence of persons testing positive for alcohol on their breath was 8.8% and 5.0% in Palmas and Teresina respectively. Utilizing a correction technique we calculated that a more accurate prevalence in these sites may be as high as 28.2% and 28.7%. In both cities, about 60% of drivers who self-reported having drank within six hours of being stopped by the police either refused to perform breathalyser testing; fled the sobriety roadblock; or were not offered the test, compared to about 30% of drivers that said they had not been drinking. Despite the reduction of the legal limit for drunk driving stipulated by the "Zero Tolerance Law," loopholes in the legislation permit many

Accurate estimation of influenza epidemics using Google search data via ARGO.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Shihao; Santillana, Mauricio; Kou, S C

2015-11-24

Accurate real-time tracking of influenza outbreaks helps public health officials make timely and meaningful decisions that could save lives. We propose an influenza tracking model, ARGO (AutoRegression with GOogle search data), that uses publicly available online search data. In addition to having a rigorous statistical foundation, ARGO outperforms all previously available Google-search-based tracking models, including the latest version of Google Flu Trends, even though it uses only low-quality search data as input from publicly available Google Trends and Google Correlate websites. ARGO not only incorporates the seasonality in influenza epidemics but also captures changes in people's online search behavior over time. ARGO is also flexible, self-correcting, robust, and scalable, making it a potentially powerful tool that can be used for real-time tracking of other social events at multiple temporal and spatial resolutions.

CTER—Rapid estimation of CTF parameters with error assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Penczek, Pawel A., E-mail: Pawel.A.Penczek@uth.tmc.edu [Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, The University of Texas Medical School, 6431 Fannin MSB 6.220, Houston, TX 77054 (United States); Fang, Jia [Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, The University of Texas Medical School, 6431 Fannin MSB 6.220, Houston, TX 77054 (United States); Li, Xueming; Cheng, Yifan [The Keck Advanced Microscopy Laboratory, Department of Biochemistry and Biophysics, University of California, San Francisco, CA 94158 (United States); Loerke, Justus; Spahn, Christian M.T. [Institut für Medizinische Physik und Biophysik, Charité – Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Charitéplatz 1, 10117 Berlin (Germany)

2014-05-01

In structural electron microscopy, the accurate estimation of the Contrast Transfer Function (CTF) parameters, particularly defocus and astigmatism, is of utmost importance for both initial evaluation of micrograph quality and for subsequent structure determination. Due to increases in the rate of data collection on modern microscopes equipped with new generation cameras, it is also important that the CTF estimation can be done rapidly and with minimal user intervention. Finally, in order to minimize the necessity for manual screening of the micrographs by a user it is necessary to provide an assessment of the errors of fitted parameters values. In this work we introduce CTER, a CTF parameters estimation method distinguished by its computational efficiency. The efficiency of the method makes it suitable for high-throughput EM data collection, and enables the use of a statistical resampling technique, bootstrap, that yields standard deviations of estimated defocus and astigmatism amplitude and angle, thus facilitating the automation of the process of screening out inferior micrograph data. Furthermore, CTER also outputs the spatial frequency limit imposed by reciprocal space aliasing of the discrete form of the CTF and the finite window size. We demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of CTER using a data set collected on a 300 kV Tecnai Polara (FEI) using the K2 Summit DED camera in super-resolution counting mode. Using CTER we obtained a structure of the 80S ribosome whose large subunit had a resolution of 4.03 Å without, and 3.85 Å with, inclusion of astigmatism parameters. - Highlights: • We describe methodology for estimation of CTF parameters with error assessment. • Error estimates provide means for automated elimination of inferior micrographs. • High computational efficiency allows real-time monitoring of EM data quality. • Accurate CTF estimation yields structure of the 80S human ribosome at 3.85 Å.

Easy Leaf Area: Automated Digital Image Analysis for Rapid and Accurate Measurement of Leaf Area

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hsien Ming Easlon

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Premise of the study: Measurement of leaf areas from digital photographs has traditionally required significant user input unless backgrounds are carefully masked. Easy Leaf Area was developed to batch process hundreds of Arabidopsis rosette images in minutes, removing background artifacts and saving results to a spreadsheet-ready CSV file. Methods and Results: Easy Leaf Area uses the color ratios of each pixel to distinguish leaves and calibration areas from their background and compares leaf pixel counts to a red calibration area to eliminate the need for camera distance calculations or manual ruler scale measurement that other software methods typically require. Leaf areas estimated by this software from images taken with a camera phone were more accurate than ImageJ estimates from flatbed scanner images. Conclusions: Easy Leaf Area provides an easy-to-use method for rapid measurement of leaf area and nondestructive estimation of canopy area from digital images.

Using an eye tracker for accurate eye movement artifact correction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kierkels, J.J.M.; Riani, J.; Bergmans, J.W.M.; Boxtel, van G.J.M.

2007-01-01

We present a new method to correct eye movement artifacts in electroencephalogram (EEG) data. By using an eye tracker, whose data cannot be corrupted by any electrophysiological signals, an accurate method for correction is developed. The eye-tracker data is used in a Kalman filter to estimate which

Estimating the Development Assistance for Health Provided to Faith-Based Organizations, 1990–2013

Science.gov (United States)

Haakenstad, Annie; Johnson, Elizabeth; Graves, Casey; Olivier, Jill; Duff, Jean; Dieleman, Joseph L.

2015-01-01

Background Faith-based organizations (FBOs) have been active in the health sector for decades. Recently, the role of FBOs in global health has been of increased interest. However, little is known about the magnitude and trends in development assistance for health (DAH) channeled through these organizations. Material and Methods Data were collected from the 21 most recent editions of the Report of Voluntary Agencies. These reports provide information on the revenue and expenditure of organizations. Project-level data were also collected and reviewed from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. More than 1,900 non-governmental organizations received funds from at least one of these three organizations. Background information on these organizations was examined by two independent reviewers to identify the amount of funding channeled through FBOs. Results In 2013, total spending by the FBOs identified in the VolAg amounted to US$1.53 billion. In 1990, FB0s spent 34.1% of total DAH provided by private voluntary organizations reported in the VolAg. In 2013, FBOs expended 31.0%. Funds provided by the Global Fund to FBOs have grown since 2002, amounting to $80.9 million in 2011, or 16.7% of the Global Fund’s contributions to NGOs. In 2011, the Gates Foundation’s contributions to FBOs amounted to $7.1 million, or 1.1% of the total provided to NGOs. Conclusion Development assistance partners exhibit a range of preferences with respect to the amount of funds provided to FBOs. Overall, estimates show that FBOS have maintained a substantial and consistent share over time, in line with overall spending in global health on NGOs. These estimates provide the foundation for further research on the spending trends and effectiveness of FBOs in global health. PMID:26042731

Using Landsat Vegetation Indices to Estimate Impervious Surface Fractions for European Cities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Fensholt, Rasmus; Drews, Martin

2015-01-01

and applicability of vegetation indices (VI), from Landsat imagery, to estimate IS fractions for European cities. The accuracy of three different measures of vegetation cover is examined for eight urban areas at different locations in Europe. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Soil Adjusted...... Vegetation Index (SAVI) are converted to IS fractions using a regression modelling approach. Also, NDVI is used to estimate fractional vegetation cover (FR), and consequently IS fractions. All three indices provide fairly accurate estimates (MAEs ≈ 10%, MBE’s

Structural versus Matching Estimation : Transmission Mechanisms in Armenia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Poghosyan, K.; Boldea, O.

2011-01-01

Opting for structural or reduced form estimation is often hard to justify if one wants to both learn about the structure of the economy and obtain accurate predictions. In this paper, we show that using both structural and reduced form estimates simultaneously can lead to more accurate policy

Structural versus matching estimation : Transmission mechanisms in Armenia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Poghosyan, K.; Boldea, O.

2013-01-01

Opting for structural or reduced form estimation is often hard to justify if one wants to both learn about the structure of the economy and obtain accurate predictions. In this paper, we show that using both structural and reduced form estimates simultaneously can lead to more accurate policy

Improving the Network Scale-Up Estimator: Incorporating Means of Sums, Recursive Back Estimation, and Sampling Weights.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patrick Habecker

Full Text Available Researchers interested in studying populations that are difficult to reach through traditional survey methods can now draw on a range of methods to access these populations. Yet many of these methods are more expensive and difficult to implement than studies using conventional sampling frames and trusted sampling methods. The network scale-up method (NSUM provides a middle ground for researchers who wish to estimate the size of a hidden population, but lack the resources to conduct a more specialized hidden population study. Through this method it is possible to generate population estimates for a wide variety of groups that are perhaps unwilling to self-identify as such (for example, users of illegal drugs or other stigmatized populations via traditional survey tools such as telephone or mail surveys--by asking a representative sample to estimate the number of people they know who are members of such a "hidden" subpopulation. The original estimator is formulated to minimize the weight a single scaling variable can exert upon the estimates. We argue that this introduces hidden and difficult to predict biases, and instead propose a series of methodological advances on the traditional scale-up estimation procedure, including a new estimator. Additionally, we formalize the incorporation of sample weights into the network scale-up estimation process, and propose a recursive process of back estimation "trimming" to identify and remove poorly performing predictors from the estimation process. To demonstrate these suggestions we use data from a network scale-up mail survey conducted in Nebraska during 2014. We find that using the new estimator and recursive trimming process provides more accurate estimates, especially when used in conjunction with sampling weights.

Thermal and nuclear power generation cost estimates using corporate financial statements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsuo, Yuhji; Nagatomi, Yu; Murakami, Tomoko

2012-01-01

There are two generally accepted methods for estimating power generation costs: so-called 'model plant' method and the method using corporate financial statements. The method using corporate financial statements, though under some constraints, can provide useful information for comparing thermal and nuclear power generation costs. This study used this method for estimating thermal and nuclear power generation costs in Japan for the past five years, finding that the nuclear power generation cost remained stable at around 7 yen per kilowatt-hour (kWh) while the thermal power generation cost moved within a wide range of 9 to 12 yen/kWh in line with wild fluctuations in primary energy prices. The cost of nuclear power generation is expected to increase due to the enhancement of safety measures and accident damage compensation in the future, while there are reactor decommissioning, backend and many other costs that the financial statement-using approach cannot accurately estimate. In the future, efforts should be continued to comprehensively and accurately estimate total costs. (author)

An Experimental Study of Energy Consumption in Buildings Providing Ancillary Services

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lin, Yashen [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Afshari, Sina [University of Michigan; Wolfe, John [University of Michigan; Nazir, Md Salman [University of Michigan; Hiskens, Ian A. [University of Michigan; Johnson, Jeremiah X. [University of Michigan; Mathieu, Johanna L. [University of Michigan; Barnes, Arthur K. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Geller, Drew A. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Backhaus, Scott N. [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2017-10-03

Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems in commercial buildings can provide ancillary services (AS) to the power grid, but by providing AS their energy consumption may increase. This inefficiency is evaluated using round-trip efficiency (RTE), which is defined as the ratio between the decrease and the increase in the HVAC system's energy consumption compared to the baseline consumption as a result of providing AS. This paper evaluates the RTE of a 30,000 m2 commercial building providing AS. We propose two methods to estimate the HVAC system's settling time after an AS event based on temperature and the air flow measurements from the building. Experimental data gathered over a 4-month period are used to calculate the RTE for AS signals of various waveforms, magnitudes, durations, and polarities. The results indicate that the settling time estimation algorithm based on the air flow measurements obtains more accurate results compared to the temperature-based algorithm. Further, we study the impact of the AS signal shape parameters on the RTE and discuss the practical implications of our findings.

DFT-based channel estimation and noise variance estimation techniques for single-carrier FDMA

OpenAIRE

Huang, G; Nix, AR; Armour, SMD

2010-01-01

Practical frequency domain equalization (FDE) systems generally require knowledge of the channel and the noise variance to equalize the received signal in a frequency-selective fading channel. Accurate channel estimate and noise variance estimate are thus desirable to improve receiver performance. In this paper we investigate the performance of the denoise channel estimator and the approximate linear minimum mean square error (A-LMMSE) channel estimator with channel power delay profile (PDP) ...

Age estimation of burbot using pectoral fin rays, brachiostegal rays, and otoliths

Science.gov (United States)

Klein, Zachary B.; Terrazas, Marc M.; Quist, Michael C.

2014-01-01

Throughout much of its native distribution, burbot (Lota lota) is a species of conservation concern. Understanding dynamic rate functions is critical for the effective management of sensitive burbot populations, which necessitates accurate and precise age estimates. Managing sensitive burbot populations requires an accurate and precise non-lethal alternative. In an effort to identify a non-lethal ageing structure, we compared the precision of age estimates obtained from otoliths, pectoral fin rays, dorsal fin rays and branchiostegal rays from 208 burbot collected from the Green River drainage, Wyoming. Additionally, we compared the accuracy of age estimates from pectoral fin rays, dorsal fin rays and branchiostegal rays to those of otoliths. Dorsal fin rays were immediately deemed a poor ageing structure and removed from further analysis. Age-bias plots of consensus ages derived from branchiostegal rays and pectoral fin rays were appreciably different from those obtained from otoliths. Exact agreement between readers and reader confidence was highest for otoliths and lowest for branchiostegal rays. Age-bias plots indicated that age estimates obtained from branchiostegal rays and pectoral fin rays were substantially different from age estimates obtained from otoliths. Our results indicate that otoliths provide the most precise age estimates for burbot.

Airborne lidar-based estimates of tropical forest structure in complex terrain: opportunities and trade-offs for REDD+

Science.gov (United States)

Veronika Leitold; Michael Keller; Douglas C Morton; Bruce D Cook; Yosio E Shimabukuro

2015-01-01

Background: Carbon stocks and fluxes in tropical forests remain large sources of uncertainty in the global carbon budget. Airborne lidar remote sensing is a powerful tool for estimating aboveground biomass, provided that lidar measurements penetrate dense forest vegetation to generate accurate estimates of surface topography and canopy heights. Tropical forest areas...

Estimation of real-time runway surface contamination using flight data recorder parameters

Science.gov (United States)

Curry, Donovan

Within this research effort, the development of an analytic process for friction coefficient estimation is presented. Under static equilibrium, the sum of forces and moments acting on the aircraft, in the aircraft body coordinate system, while on the ground at any instant is equal to zero. Under this premise the longitudinal, lateral and normal forces due to landing are calculated along with the individual deceleration components existent when an aircraft comes to a rest during ground roll. In order to validate this hypothesis a six degree of freedom aircraft model had to be created and landing tests had to be simulated on different surfaces. The simulated aircraft model includes a high fidelity aerodynamic model, thrust model, landing gear model, friction model and antiskid model. Three main surfaces were defined in the friction model; dry, wet and snow/ice. Only the parameters recorded by an FDR are used directly from the aircraft model all others are estimated or known a priori. The estimation of unknown parameters is also presented in the research effort. With all needed parameters a comparison and validation with simulated and estimated data, under different runway conditions, is performed. Finally, this report presents results of a sensitivity analysis in order to provide a measure of reliability of the analytic estimation process. Linear and non-linear sensitivity analysis has been performed in order to quantify the level of uncertainty implicit in modeling estimated parameters and how they can affect the calculation of the instantaneous coefficient of friction. Using the approach of force and moment equilibrium about the CG at landing to reconstruct the instantaneous coefficient of friction appears to be a reasonably accurate estimate when compared to the simulated friction coefficient. This is also true when the FDR and estimated parameters are introduced to white noise and when crosswind is introduced to the simulation. After the linear analysis the

Estimation of the four-wave mixing noise probability-density function by the multicanonical Monte Carlo method.

Science.gov (United States)

Neokosmidis, Ioannis; Kamalakis, Thomas; Chipouras, Aristides; Sphicopoulos, Thomas

2005-01-01

The performance of high-powered wavelength-division multiplexed (WDM) optical networks can be severely degraded by four-wave-mixing- (FWM-) induced distortion. The multicanonical Monte Carlo method (MCMC) is used to calculate the probability-density function (PDF) of the decision variable of a receiver, limited by FWM noise. Compared with the conventional Monte Carlo method previously used to estimate this PDF, the MCMC method is much faster and can accurately estimate smaller error probabilities. The method takes into account the correlation between the components of the FWM noise, unlike the Gaussian model, which is shown not to provide accurate results.

Toward Accurate On-Ground Attitude Determination for the Gaia Spacecraft

Science.gov (United States)

Samaan, Malak A.

2010-03-01

The work presented in this paper concerns the accurate On-Ground Attitude (OGA) reconstruction for the astrometry spacecraft Gaia in the presence of disturbance and of control torques acting on the spacecraft. The reconstruction of the expected environmental torques which influence the spacecraft dynamics will be also investigated. The telemetry data from the spacecraft will include the on-board real-time attitude, which is of order of several arcsec. This raw attitude is the starting point for the further attitude reconstruction. The OGA will use the inputs from the field coordinates of known stars (attitude stars) and also the field coordinate differences of objects on the Sky Mapper (SM) and Astrometric Field (AF) payload instruments to improve this raw attitude. The on-board attitude determination uses a Kalman Filter (KF) to minimize the attitude errors and produce a more accurate attitude estimation than the pure star tracker measurement. Therefore the first approach for the OGA will be an adapted version of KF. Furthermore, we will design a batch least squares algorithm to investigate how to obtain a more accurate OGA estimation. Finally, a comparison between these different attitude determination techniques in terms of accuracy, robustness, speed and memory required will be evaluated in order to choose the best attitude algorithm for the OGA. The expected resulting accuracy for the OGA determination will be on the order of milli-arcsec.

The Effect of Error in Item Parameter Estimates on the Test Response Function Method of Linking.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaskowitz, Gary S.; De Ayala, R. J.

2001-01-01

Studied the effect of item parameter estimation for computation of linking coefficients for the test response function (TRF) linking/equating method. Simulation results showed that linking was more accurate when there was less error in the parameter estimates, and that 15 or 25 common items provided better results than 5 common items under both…

An accurate estimation and optimization of bottom hole back pressure in managed pressure drilling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Boniface Aleruchi ORIJI

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Managed Pressure Drilling (MPD utilizes a method of applying back pressure to compensate for wellbore pressure losses during drilling. Using a single rheological (Annular Frictional Pressure Losses, AFPL model to estimate the backpressure in MPD operations for all sections of the well may not yield the best result. Each section of the hole was therefore treated independently in this study as data from a case study well were used. As the backpressure is a function of hydrostatic pressure, pore pressure and AFPL, three AFPL models (Bingham plastic, Power law and Herschel Bulkley models were utilized in estimating the backpressure. The estimated backpressure values were compared to the actual field backpressure values in order to obtain the optimum backpressure at the various well depths. The backpressure values estimated by utilizing the power law AFPL model gave the best result for the 12 1/4" hole section (average error % of 1.855% while the back pressures estimated by utilizing the Herschel Bulkley AFPL model gave the best result for the 8 1/2" hole section (average error % of 12.3%. The study showed that for hole sections of turbulent annular flow, the power law AFPL model fits best for estimating the required backpressure while for hole sections of laminar annular flow, the Herschel Bulkley AFPL model fits best for estimating the required backpressure.

A simple accurate chest-compression depth gauge using magnetic coils during cardiopulmonary resuscitation.

Science.gov (United States)

Kandori, Akihiko; Sano, Yuko; Zhang, Yuhua; Tsuji, Toshio

2015-12-01

This paper describes a new method for calculating chest compression depth and a simple chest-compression gauge for validating the accuracy of the method. The chest-compression gauge has two plates incorporating two magnetic coils, a spring, and an accelerometer. The coils are located at both ends of the spring, and the accelerometer is set on the bottom plate. Waveforms obtained using the magnetic coils (hereafter, "magnetic waveforms"), which are proportional to compression-force waveforms and the acceleration waveforms were measured at the same time. The weight factor expressing the relationship between the second derivatives of the magnetic waveforms and the measured acceleration waveforms was calculated. An estimated-compression-displacement (depth) waveform was obtained by multiplying the weight factor and the magnetic waveforms. Displacements of two large springs (with similar spring constants) within a thorax and displacements of a cardiopulmonary resuscitation training manikin were measured using the gauge to validate the accuracy of the calculated waveform. A laser-displacement detection system was used to compare the real displacement waveform and the estimated waveform. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) between the real displacement using the laser system and the estimated displacement waveforms were calculated. The estimated displacement error of the compression depth was within 2 mm (compression gauge, based on a new calculation method, provides an accurate compression depth (estimation error < 2 mm).

Accurate x-ray spectroscopy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deslattes, R.D.

1987-01-01

Heavy ion accelerators are the most flexible and readily accessible sources of highly charged ions. These having only one or two remaining electrons have spectra whose accurate measurement is of considerable theoretical significance. Certain features of ion production by accelerators tend to limit the accuracy which can be realized in measurement of these spectra. This report aims to provide background about spectroscopic limitations and discuss how accelerator operations may be selected to permit attaining intrinsically limited data

Using genetic data to estimate diffusion rates in heterogeneous landscapes.

Science.gov (United States)

Roques, L; Walker, E; Franck, P; Soubeyrand, S; Klein, E K

2016-08-01

Having a precise knowledge of the dispersal ability of a population in a heterogeneous environment is of critical importance in agroecology and conservation biology as it can provide management tools to limit the effects of pests or to increase the survival of endangered species. In this paper, we propose a mechanistic-statistical method to estimate space-dependent diffusion parameters of spatially-explicit models based on stochastic differential equations, using genetic data. Dividing the total population into subpopulations corresponding to different habitat patches with known allele frequencies, the expected proportions of individuals from each subpopulation at each position is computed by solving a system of reaction-diffusion equations. Modelling the capture and genotyping of the individuals with a statistical approach, we derive a numerically tractable formula for the likelihood function associated with the diffusion parameters. In a simulated environment made of three types of regions, each associated with a different diffusion coefficient, we successfully estimate the diffusion parameters with a maximum-likelihood approach. Although higher genetic differentiation among subpopulations leads to more accurate estimations, once a certain level of differentiation has been reached, the finite size of the genotyped population becomes the limiting factor for accurate estimation.

A decision tree model to estimate the value of information provided by a groundwater quality monitoring network

Science.gov (United States)

Khader, A. I.; Rosenberg, D. E.; McKee, M.

2013-05-01

Groundwater contaminated with nitrate poses a serious health risk to infants when this contaminated water is used for culinary purposes. To avoid this health risk, people need to know whether their culinary water is contaminated or not. Therefore, there is a need to design an effective groundwater monitoring network, acquire information on groundwater conditions, and use acquired information to inform management options. These actions require time, money, and effort. This paper presents a method to estimate the value of information (VOI) provided by a groundwater quality monitoring network located in an aquifer whose water poses a spatially heterogeneous and uncertain health risk. A decision tree model describes the structure of the decision alternatives facing the decision-maker and the expected outcomes from these alternatives. The alternatives include (i) ignore the health risk of nitrate-contaminated water, (ii) switch to alternative water sources such as bottled water, or (iii) implement a previously designed groundwater quality monitoring network that takes into account uncertainties in aquifer properties, contaminant transport processes, and climate (Khader, 2012). The VOI is estimated as the difference between the expected costs of implementing the monitoring network and the lowest-cost uninformed alternative. We illustrate the method for the Eocene Aquifer, West Bank, Palestine, where methemoglobinemia (blue baby syndrome) is the main health problem associated with the principal contaminant nitrate. The expected cost of each alternative is estimated as the weighted sum of the costs and probabilities (likelihoods) associated with the uncertain outcomes resulting from the alternative. Uncertain outcomes include actual nitrate concentrations in the aquifer, concentrations reported by the monitoring system, whether people abide by manager recommendations to use/not use aquifer water, and whether people get sick from drinking contaminated water. Outcome costs

Adaptive State of Charge Estimation for Li-Ion Batteries Based on an Unscented Kalman Filter with an Enhanced Battery Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuanyuan Liu

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Accurate estimation of the state of charge (SOC of batteries is one of the key problems in a battery management system. This paper proposes an adaptive SOC estimation method based on unscented Kalman filter algorithms for lithium (Li-ion batteries. First, an enhanced battery model is proposed to include the impacts due to different discharge rates and temperatures. An adaptive joint estimation of the battery SOC and battery internal resistance is then presented to enhance system robustness with battery aging. The SOC estimation algorithm has been developed and verified through experiments on different types of Li-ion batteries. The results indicate that the proposed method provides an accurate SOC estimation and is computationally efficient, making it suitable for embedded system implementation.

A global algorithm for estimating Absolute Salinity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. J. McDougall

2012-12-01

Full Text Available The International Thermodynamic Equation of Seawater – 2010 has defined the thermodynamic properties of seawater in terms of a new salinity variable, Absolute Salinity, which takes into account the spatial variation of the composition of seawater. Absolute Salinity more accurately reflects the effects of the dissolved material in seawater on the thermodynamic properties (particularly density than does Practical Salinity.

When a seawater sample has standard composition (i.e. the ratios of the constituents of sea salt are the same as those of surface water of the North Atlantic, Practical Salinity can be used to accurately evaluate the thermodynamic properties of seawater. When seawater is not of standard composition, Practical Salinity alone is not sufficient and the Absolute Salinity Anomaly needs to be estimated; this anomaly is as large as 0.025 g kg⁻¹ in the northernmost North Pacific. Here we provide an algorithm for estimating Absolute Salinity Anomaly for any location (x, y, p in the world ocean.

To develop this algorithm, we used the Absolute Salinity Anomaly that is found by comparing the density calculated from Practical Salinity to the density measured in the laboratory. These estimates of Absolute Salinity Anomaly however are limited to the number of available observations (namely 811. In order to provide a practical method that can be used at any location in the world ocean, we take advantage of approximate relationships between Absolute Salinity Anomaly and silicate concentrations (which are available globally.

Estimating the re-identification risk of clinical data sets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dankar Fida

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background De-identification is a common way to protect patient privacy when disclosing clinical data for secondary purposes, such as research. One type of attack that de-identification protects against is linking the disclosed patient data with public and semi-public registries. Uniqueness is a commonly used measure of re-identification risk under this attack. If uniqueness can be measured accurately then the risk from this kind of attack can be managed. In practice, it is often not possible to measure uniqueness directly, therefore it must be estimated. Methods We evaluated the accuracy of uniqueness estimators on clinically relevant data sets. Four candidate estimators were identified because they were evaluated in the past and found to have good accuracy or because they were new and not evaluated comparatively before: the Zayatz estimator, slide negative binomial estimator, Pitman’s estimator, and mu-argus. A Monte Carlo simulation was performed to evaluate the uniqueness estimators on six clinically relevant data sets. We varied the sampling fraction and the uniqueness in the population (the value being estimated. The median relative error and inter-quartile range of the uniqueness estimates was measured across 1000 runs. Results There was no single estimator that performed well across all of the conditions. We developed a decision rule which selected between the Pitman, slide negative binomial and Zayatz estimators depending on the sampling fraction and the difference between estimates. This decision rule had the best consistent median relative error across multiple conditions and data sets. Conclusion This study identified an accurate decision rule that can be used by health privacy researchers and disclosure control professionals to estimate uniqueness in clinical data sets. The decision rule provides a reliable way to measure re-identification risk.

Plant DNA barcodes can accurately estimate species richness in poorly known floras.

Science.gov (United States)

Costion, Craig; Ford, Andrew; Cross, Hugh; Crayn, Darren; Harrington, Mark; Lowe, Andrew

2011-01-01

Widespread uptake of DNA barcoding technology for vascular plants has been slow due to the relatively poor resolution of species discrimination (∼70%) and low sequencing and amplification success of one of the two official barcoding loci, matK. Studies to date have mostly focused on finding a solution to these intrinsic limitations of the markers, rather than posing questions that can maximize the utility of DNA barcodes for plants with the current technology. Here we test the ability of plant DNA barcodes using the two official barcoding loci, rbcLa and matK, plus an alternative barcoding locus, trnH-psbA, to estimate the species diversity of trees in a tropical rainforest plot. Species discrimination accuracy was similar to findings from previous studies but species richness estimation accuracy proved higher, up to 89%. All combinations which included the trnH-psbA locus performed better at both species discrimination and richness estimation than matK, which showed little enhanced species discriminatory power when concatenated with rbcLa. The utility of the trnH-psbA locus is limited however, by the occurrence of intraspecific variation observed in some angiosperm families to occur as an inversion that obscures the monophyly of species. We demonstrate for the first time, using a case study, the potential of plant DNA barcodes for the rapid estimation of species richness in taxonomically poorly known areas or cryptic populations revealing a powerful new tool for rapid biodiversity assessment. The combination of the rbcLa and trnH-psbA loci performed better for this purpose than any two-locus combination that included matK. We show that although DNA barcodes fail to discriminate all species of plants, new perspectives and methods on biodiversity value and quantification may overshadow some of these shortcomings by applying barcode data in new ways.

Accurate millimetre and submillimetre rest frequencies for cis- and trans-dithioformic acid, HCSSH

Science.gov (United States)

Prudenzano, D.; Laas, J.; Bizzocchi, L.; Lattanzi, V.; Endres, C.; Giuliano, B. M.; Spezzano, S.; Palumbo, M. E.; Caselli, P.

2018-04-01

Context. A better understanding of sulphur chemistry is needed to solve the interstellar sulphur depletion problem. A way to achieve this goal is to study new S-bearing molecules in the laboratory, obtaining accurate rest frequencies for an astronomical search. We focus on dithioformic acid, HCSSH, which is the sulphur analogue of formic acid. Aims: The aim of this study is to provide an accurate line list of the two HCSSH trans and cis isomers in their electronic ground state and a comprehensive centrifugal distortion analysis with an extension of measurements in the millimetre and submillimetre range. Methods: We studied the two isomers in the laboratory using an absorption spectrometer employing the frequency-modulation technique. The molecules were produced directly within a free-space cell by glow discharge of a gas mixture. We measured lines belonging to the electronic ground state up to 478 GHz, with a total number of 204 and 139 new rotational transitions, respectively, for trans and cis isomers. The final dataset also includes lines in the centimetre range available from literature. Results: The extension of the measurements in the mm and submm range lead to an accurate set of rotational and centrifugal distortion parameters. This allows us to predict frequencies with estimated uncertainties as low as 5 kHz at 1 mm wavelength. Hence, the new dataset provided by this study can be used for astronomical search. Frequency lists are only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (http://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/612/A56

Research and development on groundwater dating. Part 11. The proposal of separation method of chloride and sulfate ion for accurate measurement of 36Cl/Cl

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakata, Kotaro; Hasegawa, Takuma

2010-01-01

36 Cl is one of the most powerful tools to estimate the residence time of groundwater about 300-1800 thousand years. AMS(Accelerator Mass Spectroscopy) can provide accurate estimation of 36 Cl. However, estimation of 36 Cl by AMS is usually disturbed by isobar such as 36 S. Thus, separation of Cl (usually Cl - form in groundwater) and S (usually SO 4 -2 form in groundwater) is required for accurate estimation of 36 Cl. In previous studies, a methodology (BaSO 4 Method) that uses the difference in solubility between BaSO 4 and BaCl 2 , had been applied as pretreatment method for 36 Cl estimation by AMS. However BaSO 4 Method has following disadvantages; (1) Cl and SO 4 can not be separated completely, (2) accuracy of separation depends on the skills of operator, (3) it takes a long time for treatment, (4) it can not be applied to dilute solutions. Therefore, new methodology that can overcome disadvantages of BaSO 4 method is required for more accurate estimation of 36 Cl. In this study, Column Method based on column chromatography was investigated for pretreatment method for 36 Cl estimation by AMS to separate Cl and SO 4 ions. The conditions for Column Method were determined and adjusted so that Cl and SO 4 ions were separated completely and sufficient amount of Cl for 36 Cl estimation can be treated. The results of AMS measurement showed Column Method can remove SO 4 from Cl more effectively comparing with BaSO 4 method. Furthermore, Column Method was found to have following advantages over BaSO 4 Method; (1) dependence of accuracy of separation on the skills of operator is quite low, (2) treatment can be done within 6 h, (3) it can be applied to dilute solutions. (author)

Bioaccessibility tests accurately estimate bioavailability of lead to quail

Science.gov (United States)

Beyer, W. Nelson; Basta, Nicholas T; Chaney, Rufus L.; Henry, Paula F.; Mosby, David; Rattner, Barnett A.; Scheckel, Kirk G.; Sprague, Dan; Weber, John

2016-01-01

Hazards of soil-borne Pb to wild birds may be more accurately quantified if the bioavailability of that Pb is known. To better understand the bioavailability of Pb to birds, we measured blood Pb concentrations in Japanese quail (Coturnix japonica) fed diets containing Pb-contaminated soils. Relative bioavailabilities were expressed by comparison with blood Pb concentrations in quail fed a Pb acetate reference diet. Diets containing soil from five Pb-contaminated Superfund sites had relative bioavailabilities from 33%-63%, with a mean of about 50%. Treatment of two of the soils with phosphorus significantly reduced the bioavailability of Pb. Bioaccessibility of Pb in the test soils was then measured in six in vitro tests and regressed on bioavailability. They were: the “Relative Bioavailability Leaching Procedure” (RBALP) at pH 1.5, the same test conducted at pH 2.5, the “Ohio State University In vitro Gastrointestinal” method (OSU IVG), the “Urban Soil Bioaccessible Lead Test”, the modified “Physiologically Based Extraction Test” and the “Waterfowl Physiologically Based Extraction Test.” All regressions had positive slopes. Based on criteria of slope and coefficient of determination, the RBALP pH 2.5 and OSU IVG tests performed very well. Speciation by X-ray absorption spectroscopy demonstrated that, on average, most of the Pb in the sampled soils was sorbed to minerals (30%), bound to organic matter (24%), or present as Pb sulfate (18%). Additional Pb was associated with P (chloropyromorphite, hydroxypyromorphite and tertiary Pb phosphate), and with Pb carbonates, leadhillite (a lead sulfate carbonate hydroxide), and Pb sulfide. The formation of chloropyromorphite reduced the bioavailability of Pb and the amendment of Pb-contaminated soils with P may be a thermodynamically favored means to sequester Pb.

An adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system for short-term natural gas demand estimation: Uncertain and complex environments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Azadeh, A.; Asadzadeh, S.M.; Ghanbari, A.

2010-01-01

Accurate short-term natural gas (NG) demand estimation and forecasting is vital for policy and decision-making process in energy sector. Moreover, conventional methods may not provide accurate results. This paper presents an adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for estimation of NG demand. Standard input variables are used which are day of the week, demand of the same day in previous year, demand of a day before and demand of 2 days before. The proposed ANFIS approach is equipped with pre-processing and post-processing concepts. Moreover, input data are pre-processed (scaled) and finally output data are post-processed (returned to its original scale). The superiority and applicability of the ANFIS approach is shown for Iranian NG consumption from 22/12/2007 to 30/6/2008. Results show that ANFIS provides more accurate results than artificial neural network (ANN) and conventional time series approach. The results of this study provide policy makers with an appropriate tool to make more accurate predictions on future short-term NG demand. This is because the proposed approach is capable of handling non-linearity, complexity as well as uncertainty that may exist in actual data sets due to erratic responses and measurement errors.

Quantitative pre-surgical lung function estimation with SPECT/CT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bailey, D. L.; Willowson, K. P.; Timmins, S.; Harris, B. E.; Bailey, E. A.; Roach, P. J.

2009-01-01

Full text:Objectives: To develop methodology to predict lobar lung function based on SPECT/CT ventilation and perfusion (V/Q) scanning in candidates for lobectomy for lung cancer. Methods: This combines two development areas from our group: quantitative SPECT based on CT-derived corrections for scattering and attenuation of photons, and SPECT V/Q scanning with lobar segmentation from CT. Eight patients underwent baseline pulmonary function testing (PFT) including spirometry, measure of DLCO and cario-pulmonary exercise testing. A SPECT/CT V/Q scan was acquired at baseline. Using in-house software each lobe was anatomically defined using CT to provide lobar ROIs which could be applied to the SPECT data. From these, individual lobar contribution to overall function was calculated from counts within the lobe and post-operative FEV1, DLCO and VO2 peak were predicted. This was compared with the quantitative planar scan method using 3 rectangular ROIs over each lung. Results: Post-operative FEV1 most closely matched that predicted by the planar quantification method, with SPECT V/Q over-estimating the loss of function by 8% (range - 7 - +23%). However, post-operative DLCO and VO2 peak were both accurately predicted by SPECT V/Q (average error of 0 and 2% respectively) compared with planar. Conclusions: More accurate anatomical definition of lobar anatomy provides better estimates of post-operative loss of function for DLCO and VO2 peak than traditional planar methods. SPECT/CT provides the tools for accurate anatomical defintions of the surgical target as well as being useful in producing quantitative 3D functional images for ventilation and perfusion.

A fast algorithm for determining bounds and accurate approximate p-values of the rank product statistic for replicate experiments.

Science.gov (United States)

Heskes, Tom; Eisinga, Rob; Breitling, Rainer

2014-11-21

The rank product method is a powerful statistical technique for identifying differentially expressed molecules in replicated experiments. A critical issue in molecule selection is accurate calculation of the p-value of the rank product statistic to adequately address multiple testing. Both exact calculation and permutation and gamma approximations have been proposed to determine molecule-level significance. These current approaches have serious drawbacks as they are either computationally burdensome or provide inaccurate estimates in the tail of the p-value distribution. We derive strict lower and upper bounds to the exact p-value along with an accurate approximation that can be used to assess the significance of the rank product statistic in a computationally fast manner. The bounds and the proposed approximation are shown to provide far better accuracy over existing approximate methods in determining tail probabilities, with the slightly conservative upper bound protecting against false positives. We illustrate the proposed method in the context of a recently published analysis on transcriptomic profiling performed in blood. We provide a method to determine upper bounds and accurate approximate p-values of the rank product statistic. The proposed algorithm provides an order of magnitude increase in throughput as compared with current approaches and offers the opportunity to explore new application domains with even larger multiple testing issue. The R code is published in one of the Additional files and is available at http://www.ru.nl/publish/pages/726696/rankprodbounds.zip .

Accurate Alignment of Plasma Channels Based on Laser Centroid Oscillations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gonsalves, Anthony; Nakamura, Kei; Lin, Chen; Osterhoff, Jens; Shiraishi, Satomi; Schroeder, Carl; Geddes, Cameron; Toth, Csaba; Esarey, Eric; Leemans, Wim

2011-01-01

A technique has been developed to accurately align a laser beam through a plasma channel by minimizing the shift in laser centroid and angle at the channel outptut. If only the shift in centroid or angle is measured, then accurate alignment is provided by minimizing laser centroid motion at the channel exit as the channel properties are scanned. The improvement in alignment accuracy provided by this technique is important for minimizing electron beam pointing errors in laser plasma accelerators.

Bayesian Parameter Estimation for Heavy-Duty Vehicles

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Miller, Eric; Konan, Arnaud; Duran, Adam

2017-03-28

Accurate vehicle parameters are valuable for design, modeling, and reporting. Estimating vehicle parameters can be a very time-consuming process requiring tightly-controlled experimentation. This work describes a method to estimate vehicle parameters such as mass, coefficient of drag/frontal area, and rolling resistance using data logged during standard vehicle operation. The method uses Monte Carlo to generate parameter sets which is fed to a variant of the road load equation. Modeled road load is then compared to measured load to evaluate the probability of the parameter set. Acceptance of a proposed parameter set is determined using the probability ratio to the current state, so that the chain history will give a distribution of parameter sets. Compared to a single value, a distribution of possible values provides information on the quality of estimates and the range of possible parameter values. The method is demonstrated by estimating dynamometer parameters. Results confirm the method's ability to estimate reasonable parameter sets, and indicates an opportunity to increase the certainty of estimates through careful selection or generation of the test drive cycle.

Development of computer program for estimating decommissioning cost - 59037

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Hak-Soo; Park, Jong-Kil

2012-01-01

The programs for estimating the decommissioning cost have been developed for many different purposes and applications. The estimation of decommissioning cost is required a large amount of data such as unit cost factors, plant area and its inventory, waste treatment, etc. These make it difficult to use manual calculation or typical spreadsheet software such as Microsoft Excel. The cost estimation for eventual decommissioning of nuclear power plants is a prerequisite for safe, timely and cost-effective decommissioning. To estimate the decommissioning cost more accurately and systematically, KHNP, Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co. Ltd, developed a decommissioning cost estimating computer program called 'DeCAT-Pro', which is Decommission-ing Cost Assessment Tool - Professional. (Hereinafter called 'DeCAT') This program allows users to easily assess the decommissioning cost with various decommissioning options. Also, this program provides detailed reporting for decommissioning funding requirements as well as providing detail project schedules, cash-flow, staffing plan and levels, and waste volumes by waste classifications and types. KHNP is planning to implement functions for estimating the plant inventory using 3-D technology and for classifying the conditions of radwaste disposal and transportation automatically. (authors)

Using machine learning for real-time estimates of snow water equivalent in the watersheds of Afghanistan

Science.gov (United States)

Bair, Edward H.; Abreu Calfa, Andre; Rittger, Karl; Dozier, Jeff

2018-05-01

In the mountains, snowmelt often provides most of the runoff. Operational estimates use imagery from optical and passive microwave sensors, but each has its limitations. An accurate approach, which we validate in Afghanistan and the Sierra Nevada USA, reconstructs spatially distributed snow water equivalent (SWE) by calculating snowmelt backward from a remotely sensed date of disappearance. However, reconstructed SWE estimates are available only retrospectively; they do not provide a forecast. To estimate SWE throughout the snowmelt season, we consider physiographic and remotely sensed information as predictors and reconstructed SWE as the target. The period of analysis matches the AMSR-E radiometer's lifetime from 2003 to 2011, for the months of April through June. The spatial resolution of the predictions is 3.125 km, to match the resolution of a microwave brightness temperature product. Two machine learning techniques - bagged regression trees and feed-forward neural networks - produced similar mean results, with 0-14 % bias and 46-48 mm RMSE on average. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies averaged 0.68 for all years. Daily SWE climatology and fractional snow-covered area are the most important predictors. We conclude that these methods can accurately estimate SWE during the snow season in remote mountains, and thereby provide an independent estimate to forecast runoff and validate other methods to assess the snow resource.

Equipment upgrade - Accurate positioning of ion chambers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doane, Harry J.; Nelson, George W.

1990-01-01

Five adjustable clamps were made to firmly support and accurately position the ion Chambers, that provide signals to the power channels for the University of Arizona TRIGA reactor. The design requirements, fabrication procedure and installation are described

New estimates for human lung dimensions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kennedy, Christine; Sidavasan, Sivalal; Kramer, Gary

2008-01-01

Full text: The currently used lung dimensions in dosimetry were originally estimated in the 1940s from Army recruits. This study provides new estimates of lung dimensions based on images acquired from a sample from the general population (varying age and sex). Building accurate models, called phantoms, of the human lung requires that the spatial dimensions (length, width, and depth) be quantified, in addition to volume. Errors in dose estimates may result from improperly sized lungs as the counting efficiency of externally mounted detectors (e.g., in a lung counter) is dependent on the position of internally deposited radioactive material (i.e., the size of the lung). This study investigates the spatial dimensions of human lungs. Lung phantoms have previously been made in one of two sizes. The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Torso Phantom (LLNL) has deep, short lungs whose dimensions do not comply well with the data published in Report 23 (Reference Man) issued by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). The Japanese Atomic Energy Research Institute Torso Phantom(JAERI), has longer, shallower lungs that also deviate from the ICRP values. However, careful examination of the ICRP recommended values shows that they are soft. In fact, they have been dropped from the ICRP's Report 89 which updates Report 23. Literature surveys have revealed a wealth of information on lung volume, but very little data on the spatial dimensions of human lungs. Better lung phantoms need to be constructed to more accurately represent a person so that dose estimates may be quantified more accurately in view of the new, lower, dose limits for occupationally exposed workers and the general public. Retrospective chest images of 60 patients who underwent imaging of the chest- lungs as part of their healthy persons occupational screening for lung disease were chosen. The chosen normal lung images represent the general population). Ages, gender and weight of the

Inter-electrode delay estimators for electrohysterographic propagation analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rabotti, Chiara; Mischi, Massimo; Bergmans, Jan W M; Van Laar, Judith O E H; Oei, Guid S

2009-01-01

Premature birth is a major cause of mortality and permanent dysfunctions. Several parameters derived from single channel electrohysterographic (EHG) signals have been considered to determine contractions leading to preterm delivery. The results are promising, but improvements are needed. As effective uterine contractions result from a proper action potential propagation, in this paper we focus on the propagation properties of EHG signals, which can be predictive of preterm delivery. Two standard delay estimators, namely maximization of the cross-correlation function and spectral matching, are adapted and implemented for the assessment of inter-electrode delays of propagating EHG signals. The accuracy of the considered standard estimators might be hampered by a poor inter-channel correlation. An improved dedicated approach is therefore proposed. By simultaneous adaptive estimation of the volume conductor transfer function and the delay, a dedicated method is conceived for improving the inter-channel signal similarity during delay calculation. Furthermore, it provides delay estimates without resolution limits and it is suitable for low sampling rates, which are appropriate for EHG recording. The three estimators were evaluated on EHG signals recorded on seven women. The dedicated approach provided more accurate estimates due to a 22% improvement of the initial average inter-channel correlation

Measuring physical inactivity: do current measures provide an accurate view of "sedentary" video game time?

Science.gov (United States)

Fullerton, Simon; Taylor, Anne W; Dal Grande, Eleonora; Berry, Narelle

2014-01-01

Measures of screen time are often used to assess sedentary behaviour. Participation in activity-based video games (exergames) can contribute to estimates of screen time, as current practices of measuring it do not consider the growing evidence that playing exergames can provide light to moderate levels of physical activity. This study aimed to determine what proportion of time spent playing video games was actually spent playing exergames. Data were collected via a cross-sectional telephone survey in South Australia. Participants aged 18 years and above (n = 2026) were asked about their video game habits, as well as demographic and socioeconomic factors. In cases where children were in the household, the video game habits of a randomly selected child were also questioned. Overall, 31.3% of adults and 79.9% of children spend at least some time playing video games. Of these, 24.1% of adults and 42.1% of children play exergames, with these types of games accounting for a third of all time that adults spend playing video games and nearly 20% of children's video game time. A substantial proportion of time that would usually be classified as "sedentary" may actually be spent participating in light to moderate physical activity.

CUFID-query: accurate network querying through random walk based network flow estimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Jeong, Hyundoo; Qian, Xiaoning; Yoon, Byung-Jun

2017-12-28

Functional modules in biological networks consist of numerous biomolecules and their complicated interactions. Recent studies have shown that biomolecules in a functional module tend to have similar interaction patterns and that such modules are often conserved across biological networks of different species. As a result, such conserved functional modules can be identified through comparative analysis of biological networks. In this work, we propose a novel network querying algorithm based on the CUFID (Comparative network analysis Using the steady-state network Flow to IDentify orthologous proteins) framework combined with an efficient seed-and-extension approach. The proposed algorithm, CUFID-query, can accurately detect conserved functional modules as small subnetworks in the target network that are expected to perform similar functions to the given query functional module. The CUFID framework was recently developed for probabilistic pairwise global comparison of biological networks, and it has been applied to pairwise global network alignment, where the framework was shown to yield accurate network alignment results. In the proposed CUFID-query algorithm, we adopt the CUFID framework and extend it for local network alignment, specifically to solve network querying problems. First, in the seed selection phase, the proposed method utilizes the CUFID framework to compare the query and the target networks and to predict the probabilistic node-to-node correspondence between the networks. Next, the algorithm selects and greedily extends the seed in the target network by iteratively adding nodes that have frequent interactions with other nodes in the seed network, in a way that the conductance of the extended network is maximally reduced. Finally, CUFID-query removes irrelevant nodes from the querying results based on the personalized PageRank vector for the induced network that includes the fully extended network and its neighboring nodes. Through extensive

Assessment of broadband SNR estimation for hearing aid applications

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

May, Tobias; Kowalewski, Borys; Fereczkowski, Michal

2017-01-01

was systematically investigated. The most accurate approach utilized an estimation of the clean speech power spectral density (PSD) and the noisy speech power across a sliding window of 1280 ms and achieved an total SNR estimation error below 3 dB across a wide variety of background noises and input SNRs......An accurate estimation of the broadband input signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is a prerequisite for many hearing-aid algorithms. An extensive comparison of three SNR estimation algorithms was performed. Moreover, the influence of the duration of the analysis window on the SNR estimation performance...

Plant DNA barcodes can accurately estimate species richness in poorly known floras.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Craig Costion

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Widespread uptake of DNA barcoding technology for vascular plants has been slow due to the relatively poor resolution of species discrimination (∼70% and low sequencing and amplification success of one of the two official barcoding loci, matK. Studies to date have mostly focused on finding a solution to these intrinsic limitations of the markers, rather than posing questions that can maximize the utility of DNA barcodes for plants with the current technology. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Here we test the ability of plant DNA barcodes using the two official barcoding loci, rbcLa and matK, plus an alternative barcoding locus, trnH-psbA, to estimate the species diversity of trees in a tropical rainforest plot. Species discrimination accuracy was similar to findings from previous studies but species richness estimation accuracy proved higher, up to 89%. All combinations which included the trnH-psbA locus performed better at both species discrimination and richness estimation than matK, which showed little enhanced species discriminatory power when concatenated with rbcLa. The utility of the trnH-psbA locus is limited however, by the occurrence of intraspecific variation observed in some angiosperm families to occur as an inversion that obscures the monophyly of species. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We demonstrate for the first time, using a case study, the potential of plant DNA barcodes for the rapid estimation of species richness in taxonomically poorly known areas or cryptic populations revealing a powerful new tool for rapid biodiversity assessment. The combination of the rbcLa and trnH-psbA loci performed better for this purpose than any two-locus combination that included matK. We show that although DNA barcodes fail to discriminate all species of plants, new perspectives and methods on biodiversity value and quantification may overshadow some of these shortcomings by applying barcode data in new ways.

Definition of accurate reference pattern for the DTU-ESA VAST12 antenna

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pivnenko, Sergey; Breinbjerg, Olav; Burgos, Sara

2009-01-01

In this paper, the DTU-ESA 12 GHz validation standard (VAST12) antenna and a dedicated measurement campaign carried out in 2007-2008 for the definition of its accurate reference pattern are first described. Next, a comparison between the results from the three involved measurement facilities...... is presented. Then, an accurate reference pattern of the VAST12 antenna is formed by averaging the three results taking into account the estimated uncertainties of each result. Finally, the potential use of the reference pattern for benchmarking of antenna measurement facilities is outlined....

Battery Management Systems: Accurate State-of-Charge Indication for Battery-Powered Applications

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pop, V.; Bergveld, H.J.; Danilov, D.; Regtien, Paulus P.L.; Notten, P.H.L.

2008-01-01

Battery Management Systems – Universal State-of-Charge indication for portable applications describes the field of State-of-Charge (SoC) indication for rechargeable batteries. With the emergence of battery-powered devices with an increasing number of power-hungry features, accurately estimating the

Estimating floodwater depths from flood inundation maps and topography

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, Sagy; Brakenridge, G. Robert; Kettner, Albert; Bates, Bradford; Nelson, Jonathan M.; McDonald, Richard R.; Huang, Yu-Fen; Munasinghe, Dinuke; Zhang, Jiaqi

2018-01-01

Information on flood inundation extent is important for understanding societal exposure, water storage volumes, flood wave attenuation, future flood hazard, and other variables. A number of organizations now provide flood inundation maps based on satellite remote sensing. These data products can efficiently and accurately provide the areal extent of a flood event, but do not provide floodwater depth, an important attribute for first responders and damage assessment. Here we present a new methodology and a GIS-based tool, the Floodwater Depth Estimation Tool (FwDET), for estimating floodwater depth based solely on an inundation map and a digital elevation model (DEM). We compare the FwDET results against water depth maps derived from hydraulic simulation of two flood events, a large-scale event for which we use medium resolution input layer (10 m) and a small-scale event for which we use a high-resolution (LiDAR; 1 m) input. Further testing is performed for two inundation maps with a number of challenging features that include a narrow valley, a large reservoir, and an urban setting. The results show FwDET can accurately calculate floodwater depth for diverse flooding scenarios but also leads to considerable bias in locations where the inundation extent does not align well with the DEM. In these locations, manual adjustment or higher spatial resolution input is required.

Cost Estimating Handbook for Environmental Restoration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-01-01

Environmental restoration (ER) projects have presented the DOE and cost estimators with a number of properties that are not comparable to the normal estimating climate within DOE. These properties include: An entirely new set of specialized expressions and terminology. A higher than normal exposure to cost and schedule risk, as compared to most other DOE projects, due to changing regulations, public involvement, resource shortages, and scope of work. A higher than normal percentage of indirect costs to the total estimated cost due primarily to record keeping, special training, liability, and indemnification. More than one estimate for a project, particularly in the assessment phase, in order to provide input into the evaluation of alternatives for the cleanup action. While some aspects of existing guidance for cost estimators will be applicable to environmental restoration projects, some components of the present guidelines will have to be modified to reflect the unique elements of these projects. The purpose of this Handbook is to assist cost estimators in the preparation of environmental restoration estimates for Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM) projects undertaken by DOE. The DOE has, in recent years, seen a significant increase in the number, size, and frequency of environmental restoration projects that must be costed by the various DOE offices. The coming years will show the EM program to be the largest non-weapons program undertaken by DOE. These projects create new and unique estimating requirements since historical cost and estimating precedents are meager at best. It is anticipated that this Handbook will enhance the quality of cost data within DOE in several ways by providing: The basis for accurate, consistent, and traceable baselines. Sound methodologies, guidelines, and estimating formats. Sources of cost data/databases and estimating tools and techniques available at DOE cost professionals

Navigation Aiding by a Hybrid Laser-Camera Motion Estimator for Micro Aerial Vehicles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jamal Atman

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Micro Air Vehicles (MAVs equipped with various sensors are able to carry out autonomous flights. However, the self-localization of autonomous agents is mostly dependent on Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS. In order to provide an accurate navigation solution in absence of GNSS signals, this article presents a hybrid sensor. The hybrid sensor is a deep integration of a monocular camera and a 2D laser rangefinder so that the motion of the MAV is estimated. This realization is expected to be more flexible in terms of environments compared to laser-scan-matching approaches. The estimated ego-motion is then integrated in the MAV’s navigation system. However, first, the knowledge about the pose between both sensors is obtained by proposing an improved calibration method. For both calibration and ego-motion estimation, 3D-to-2D correspondences are used and the Perspective-3-Point (P3P problem is solved. Moreover, the covariance estimation of the relative motion is presented. The experiments show very accurate calibration and navigation results.

Navigation Aiding by a Hybrid Laser-Camera Motion Estimator for Micro Aerial Vehicles.

Science.gov (United States)

Atman, Jamal; Popp, Manuel; Ruppelt, Jan; Trommer, Gert F

2016-09-16

Micro Air Vehicles (MAVs) equipped with various sensors are able to carry out autonomous flights. However, the self-localization of autonomous agents is mostly dependent on Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). In order to provide an accurate navigation solution in absence of GNSS signals, this article presents a hybrid sensor. The hybrid sensor is a deep integration of a monocular camera and a 2D laser rangefinder so that the motion of the MAV is estimated. This realization is expected to be more flexible in terms of environments compared to laser-scan-matching approaches. The estimated ego-motion is then integrated in the MAV's navigation system. However, first, the knowledge about the pose between both sensors is obtained by proposing an improved calibration method. For both calibration and ego-motion estimation, 3D-to-2D correspondences are used and the Perspective-3-Point (P3P) problem is solved. Moreover, the covariance estimation of the relative motion is presented. The experiments show very accurate calibration and navigation results.

Efficient Estimation of Dynamic Density Functions with Applications in Streaming Data

KAUST Repository

Qahtan, Abdulhakim

2016-05-11

Recent advances in computing technology allow for collecting vast amount of data that arrive continuously in the form of streams. Mining data streams is challenged by the speed and volume of the arriving data. Furthermore, the underlying distribution of the data changes over the time in unpredicted scenarios. To reduce the computational cost, data streams are often studied in forms of condensed representation, e.g., Probability Density Function (PDF). This thesis aims at developing an online density estimator that builds a model called KDE-Track for characterizing the dynamic density of the data streams. KDE-Track estimates the PDF of the stream at a set of resampling points and uses interpolation to estimate the density at any given point. To reduce the interpolation error and computational complexity, we introduce adaptive resampling where more/less resampling points are used in high/low curved regions of the PDF. The PDF values at the resampling points are updated online to provide up-to-date model of the data stream. Comparing with other existing online density estimators, KDE-Track is often more accurate (as reflected by smaller error values) and more computationally efficient (as reflected by shorter running time). The anytime available PDF estimated by KDE-Track can be applied for visualizing the dynamic density of data streams, outlier detection and change detection in data streams. In this thesis work, the first application is to visualize the taxi traffic volume in New York city. Utilizing KDE-Track allows for visualizing and monitoring the traffic flow on real time without extra overhead and provides insight analysis of the pick up demand that can be utilized by service providers to improve service availability. The second application is to detect outliers in data streams from sensor networks based on the estimated PDF. The method detects outliers accurately and outperforms baseline methods designed for detecting and cleaning outliers in sensor data. The

Weight Estimation Tool for Children Aged 6 to 59 Months in Limited-Resource Settings.

Science.gov (United States)

Ralston, Mark E; Myatt, Mark A

2016-01-01

A simple, reliable anthropometric tool for rapid estimation of weight in children would be useful in limited-resource settings where current weight estimation tools are not uniformly reliable, nearly all global under-five mortality occurs, severe acute malnutrition is a significant contributor in approximately one-third of under-five mortality, and a weight scale may not be immediately available in emergencies to first-response providers. To determine the accuracy and precision of mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) and height as weight estimation tools in children under five years of age in low-to-middle income countries. This was a retrospective observational study. Data were collected in 560 nutritional surveys during 1992-2006 using a modified Expanded Program of Immunization two-stage cluster sample design. Locations with high prevalence of acute and chronic malnutrition. A total of 453,990 children met inclusion criteria (age 6-59 months; weight ≤ 25 kg; MUAC 80-200 mm) and exclusion criteria (bilateral pitting edema; biologically implausible weight-for-height z-score (WHZ), weight-for-age z-score (WAZ), and height-for-age z-score (HAZ) values). Weight was estimated using Broselow Tape, Hong Kong formula, and database MUAC alone, height alone, and height and MUAC combined. Mean percentage difference between true and estimated weight, proportion of estimates accurate to within ± 25% and ± 10% of true weight, weighted Kappa statistic, and Bland-Altman bias were reported as measures of tool accuracy. Standard deviation of mean percentage difference and Bland-Altman 95% limits of agreement were reported as measures of tool precision. Database height was a more accurate and precise predictor of weight compared to Broselow Tape 2007 [B], Broselow Tape 2011 [A], and MUAC. Mean percentage difference between true and estimated weight was +0.49% (SD = 10.33%); proportion of estimates accurate to within ± 25% of true weight was 97.36% (95% CI 97.40%, 97.46%); and

Accurate determination of rates from non-uniformly sampled relaxation data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stetz, Matthew A.; Wand, A. Joshua, E-mail: wand@upenn.edu [University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Johnson Research Foundation and Department of Biochemistry and Biophysics (United States)

2016-08-15

The application of non-uniform sampling (NUS) to relaxation experiments traditionally used to characterize the fast internal motion of proteins is quantitatively examined. Experimentally acquired Poisson-gap sampled data reconstructed with iterative soft thresholding are compared to regular sequentially sampled (RSS) data. Using ubiquitin as a model system, it is shown that 25 % sampling is sufficient for the determination of quantitatively accurate relaxation rates. When the sampling density is fixed at 25 %, the accuracy of rates is shown to increase sharply with the total number of sampled points until eventually converging near the inherent reproducibility of the experiment. Perhaps contrary to some expectations, it is found that accurate peak height reconstruction is not required for the determination of accurate rates. Instead, inaccuracies in rates arise from inconsistencies in reconstruction across the relaxation series that primarily manifest as a non-linearity in the recovered peak height. This indicates that the performance of an NUS relaxation experiment cannot be predicted from comparison of peak heights using a single RSS reference spectrum. The generality of these findings was assessed using three alternative reconstruction algorithms, eight different relaxation measurements, and three additional proteins that exhibit varying degrees of spectral complexity. From these data, it is revealed that non-linearity in peak height reconstruction across the relaxation series is strongly correlated with errors in NUS-derived relaxation rates. Importantly, it is shown that this correlation can be exploited to reliably predict the performance of an NUS-relaxation experiment by using three or more RSS reference planes from the relaxation series. The RSS reference time points can also serve to provide estimates of the uncertainty of the sampled intensity, which for a typical relaxation times series incurs no penalty in total acquisition time.

Bayesian approach to estimate AUC, partition coefficient and drug targeting index for studies with serial sacrifice design.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Tianli; Baron, Kyle; Zhong, Wei; Brundage, Richard; Elmquist, William

2014-03-01

The current study presents a Bayesian approach to non-compartmental analysis (NCA), which provides the accurate and precise estimate of AUC 0 (∞) and any AUC 0 (∞) -based NCA parameter or derivation. In order to assess the performance of the proposed method, 1,000 simulated datasets were generated in different scenarios. A Bayesian method was used to estimate the tissue and plasma AUC 0 (∞) s and the tissue-to-plasma AUC 0 (∞) ratio. The posterior medians and the coverage of 95% credible intervals for the true parameter values were examined. The method was applied to laboratory data from a mice brain distribution study with serial sacrifice design for illustration. Bayesian NCA approach is accurate and precise in point estimation of the AUC 0 (∞) and the partition coefficient under a serial sacrifice design. It also provides a consistently good variance estimate, even considering the variability of the data and the physiological structure of the pharmacokinetic model. The application in the case study obtained a physiologically reasonable posterior distribution of AUC, with a posterior median close to the value estimated by classic Bailer-type methods. This Bayesian NCA approach for sparse data analysis provides statistical inference on the variability of AUC 0 (∞) -based parameters such as partition coefficient and drug targeting index, so that the comparison of these parameters following destructive sampling becomes statistically feasible.

Calibration and Measurement Uncertainty Estimation of Radiometric Data: Preprint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Habte, A.; Sengupta, M.; Reda, I.; Andreas, A.; Konings, J.

2014-11-01

Evaluating the performance of photovoltaic cells, modules, and arrays that form large solar deployments relies on accurate measurements of the available solar resource. Therefore, determining the accuracy of these solar radiation measurements provides a better understanding of investment risks. This paper provides guidelines and recommended procedures for estimating the uncertainty in calibrations and measurements by radiometers using methods that follow the International Bureau of Weights and Measures Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty (GUM). Standardized analysis based on these procedures ensures that the uncertainty quoted is well documented.

Vehicle State Information Estimation with the Unscented Kalman Filter

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hongbin Ren

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The vehicle state information plays an important role in the vehicle active safety systems; this paper proposed a new concept to estimate the instantaneous vehicle speed, yaw rate, tire forces, and tire kinemics information in real time. The estimator is based on the 3DoF vehicle model combined with the piecewise linear tire model. The estimator is realized using the unscented Kalman filter (UKF, since it is based on the unscented transfer technique and considers high order terms during the measurement and update stage. The numerical simulations are carried out to further investigate the performance of the estimator under high friction and low friction road conditions in the MATLAB/Simulink combined with the Carsim environment. The simulation results are compared with the numerical results from Carsim software, which indicate that UKF can estimate the vehicle state information accurately and in real time; the proposed estimation will provide the necessary and reliable state information to the vehicle controller in the future.

How to efficiently obtain accurate estimates of flower visitation rates by pollinators

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fijen, Thijs P.M.; Kleijn, David

2017-01-01

Regional declines in insect pollinators have raised concerns about crop pollination. Many pollinator studies use visitation rate (pollinators/time) as a proxy for the quality of crop pollination. Visitation rate estimates are based on observation durations that vary significantly between studies.

Estimation of daily minimum land surface air temperature using MODIS data in southern Iran

Science.gov (United States)

Didari, Shohreh; Norouzi, Hamidreza; Zand-Parsa, Shahrokh; Khanbilvardi, Reza

2017-11-01

Land surface air temperature (LSAT) is a key variable in agricultural, climatological, hydrological, and environmental studies. Many of their processes are affected by LSAT at about 5 cm from the ground surface (LSAT5cm). Most of the previous studies tried to find statistical models to estimate LSAT at 2 m height (LSAT2m) which is considered as a standardized height, and there is not enough study for LSAT5cm estimation models. Accurate measurements of LSAT5cm are generally acquired from meteorological stations, which are sparse in remote areas. Nonetheless, remote sensing data by providing rather extensive spatial coverage can complement the spatiotemporal shortcomings of meteorological stations. The main objective of this study was to find a statistical model from the previous day to accurately estimate spatial daily minimum LSAT5cm, which is very important in agricultural frost, in Fars province in southern Iran. Land surface temperature (LST) data were obtained using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard Aqua and Terra satellites at daytime and nighttime periods with normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data. These data along with geometric temperature and elevation information were used in a stepwise linear model to estimate minimum LSAT5cm during 2003-2011. The results revealed that utilization of MODIS Aqua nighttime data of previous day provides the most applicable and accurate model. According to the validation results, the accuracy of the proposed model was suitable during 2012 (root mean square difference ( RMSD) = 3.07 °C, {R}_{adj}^2 = 87 %). The model underestimated (overestimated) high (low) minimum LSAT5cm. The accuracy of estimation in the winter time was found to be lower than the other seasons ( RMSD = 3.55 °C), and in summer and winter, the errors were larger than in the remaining seasons.

Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for the annual phosphorus loss estimator model.

Science.gov (United States)

Bolster, Carl H; Vadas, Peter A

2013-07-01

Models are often used to predict phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural fields. Although it is commonly recognized that model predictions are inherently uncertain, few studies have addressed prediction uncertainties using P loss models. In this study we assessed the effect of model input error on predictions of annual P loss by the Annual P Loss Estimator (APLE) model. Our objectives were (i) to conduct a sensitivity analyses for all APLE input variables to determine which variables the model is most sensitive to, (ii) to determine whether the relatively easy-to-implement first-order approximation (FOA) method provides accurate estimates of model prediction uncertainties by comparing results with the more accurate Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method, and (iii) to evaluate the performance of the APLE model against measured P loss data when uncertainties in model predictions and measured data are included. Our results showed that for low to moderate uncertainties in APLE input variables, the FOA method yields reasonable estimates of model prediction uncertainties, although for cases where manure solid content is between 14 and 17%, the FOA method may not be as accurate as the MCS method due to a discontinuity in the manure P loss component of APLE at a manure solid content of 15%. The estimated uncertainties in APLE predictions based on assumed errors in the input variables ranged from ±2 to 64% of the predicted value. Results from this study highlight the importance of including reasonable estimates of model uncertainty when using models to predict P loss. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Estimation of inhalation doses from airborne releases using gross monitors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goldstein, N.P.

1978-01-01

Monitoring programs at most nuclear facilities involve continuous gross measurements supplemented by periodic isotopic analyses of release samples. The isotopic measurements are required to accurately assess the potential dose from the various effluent streams, but in between these measurements, one depends on the gross monitors to provide approximate indications of the dose. The effluent streams release a variety of nuclides, each with its own dose factor. This means that the relationship between the counting rate in a gross monitor and the potential dose of the effluent being monitored will depend on the isotopic composition of this release. If this composition changes, then the dose indicated by the gross monitor (calibrated for the original group of isotopes) may be significantly in error. The problem of indicating inhalation doses from gross monitoring of airborne releases is considered. In order for this type of monitor to accurately indicate dose, regardless of the isotopic makeup of a release, the analysis shows that its response to each isotope should be proportional to the dose factor of that isotope. These ideas are applied to the monitoring of air particulates using gross beta and gross gamma monitors. The study shows that the former more closely satisfies this condition and as a result, satisfactorily indicates the actual dose from reactor effluents, as determined from detailed isotopic data published in the literature. On the other hand, the gross gamma monitor, with its poorer fit to the condition, provided less than satisfactory accuracy in its dose estimates. In addition, a variety of other mathematical response functions were considered but their dose estimation capabilities were not much better than the straight beta response. The study shows that reasonably accurate dose estimates can be made using properly selected gross monitors, but that significant errors can result with improper ones. (author)

Organ volume estimation using SPECT

CERN Document Server

Zaidi, H

1996-01-01

Knowledge of in vivo thyroid volume has both diagnostic and therapeutic importance and could lead to a more precise quantification of absolute activity contained in the thyroid gland. In order to improve single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) quantitation, attenuation correction was performed according to Chang's algorithm. The dual-window method was used for scatter subtraction. We used a Monte Carlo simulation of the SPECT system to accurately determine the scatter multiplier factor k. Volume estimation using SPECT was performed by summing up the volume elements (voxels) lying within the contour of the object, determined by a fixed threshold and the gray level histogram (GLH) method. Thyroid phantom and patient studies were performed and the influence of 1) fixed thresholding, 2) automatic thresholding, 3) attenuation, 4) scatter, and 5) reconstruction filter were investigated. This study shows that accurate volume estimation of the thyroid gland is feasible when accurate corrections are perform...

Adaptive Green-Kubo estimates of transport coefficients from molecular dynamics based on robust error analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Reese E.; Mandadapu, Kranthi K.

2012-04-01

We present a rigorous Green-Kubo methodology for calculating transport coefficients based on on-the-fly estimates of: (a) statistical stationarity of the relevant process, and (b) error in the resulting coefficient. The methodology uses time samples efficiently across an ensemble of parallel replicas to yield accurate estimates, which is particularly useful for estimating the thermal conductivity of semi-conductors near their Debye temperatures where the characteristic decay times of the heat flux correlation functions are large. Employing and extending the error analysis of Zwanzig and Ailawadi [Phys. Rev. 182, 280 (1969)], 10.1103/PhysRev.182.280 and Frenkel [in Proceedings of the International School of Physics "Enrico Fermi", Course LXXV (North-Holland Publishing Company, Amsterdam, 1980)] to the integral of correlation, we are able to provide tight theoretical bounds for the error in the estimate of the transport coefficient. To demonstrate the performance of the method, four test cases of increasing computational cost and complexity are presented: the viscosity of Ar and water, and the thermal conductivity of Si and GaN. In addition to producing accurate estimates of the transport coefficients for these materials, this work demonstrates precise agreement of the computed variances in the estimates of the correlation and the transport coefficient with the extended theory based on the assumption that fluctuations follow a Gaussian process. The proposed algorithm in conjunction with the extended theory enables the calculation of transport coefficients with the Green-Kubo method accurately and efficiently.

Spatial Bias in Field-Estimated Unsaturated Hydraulic Properties

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

HOLT,ROBERT M.; WILSON,JOHN L.; GLASS JR.,ROBERT J.

2000-12-21

Hydraulic property measurements often rely on non-linear inversion models whose errors vary between samples. In non-linear physical measurement systems, bias can be directly quantified and removed using calibration standards. In hydrologic systems, field calibration is often infeasible and bias must be quantified indirectly. We use a Monte Carlo error analysis to indirectly quantify spatial bias in the saturated hydraulic conductivity, K{sub s}, and the exponential relative permeability parameter, {alpha}, estimated using a tension infiltrometer. Two types of observation error are considered, along with one inversion-model error resulting from poor contact between the instrument and the medium. Estimates of spatial statistics, including the mean, variance, and variogram-model parameters, show significant bias across a parameter space representative of poorly- to well-sorted silty sand to very coarse sand. When only observation errors are present, spatial statistics for both parameters are best estimated in materials with high hydraulic conductivity, like very coarse sand. When simple contact errors are included, the nature of the bias changes dramatically. Spatial statistics are poorly estimated, even in highly conductive materials. Conditions that permit accurate estimation of the statistics for one of the parameters prevent accurate estimation for the other; accurate regions for the two parameters do not overlap in parameter space. False cross-correlation between estimated parameters is created because estimates of K{sub s} also depend on estimates of {alpha} and both parameters are estimated from the same data.

Accurate Holdup Calculations with Predictive Modeling & Data Integration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Azmy, Yousry [North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC (United States). Dept. of Nuclear Engineering; Cacuci, Dan [Univ. of South Carolina, Columbia, SC (United States). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering

2017-04-03

In facilities that process special nuclear material (SNM) it is important to account accurately for the fissile material that enters and leaves the plant. Although there are many stages and processes through which materials must be traced and measured, the focus of this project is material that is “held-up” in equipment, pipes, and ducts during normal operation and that can accumulate over time into significant quantities. Accurately estimating the holdup is essential for proper SNM accounting (vis-à-vis nuclear non-proliferation), criticality and radiation safety, waste management, and efficient plant operation. Usually it is not possible to directly measure the holdup quantity and location, so these must be inferred from measured radiation fields, primarily gamma and less frequently neutrons. Current methods to quantify holdup, i.e. Generalized Geometry Holdup (GGH), primarily rely on simple source configurations and crude radiation transport models aided by ad hoc correction factors. This project seeks an alternate method of performing measurement-based holdup calculations using a predictive model that employs state-of-the-art radiation transport codes capable of accurately simulating such situations. Inverse and data assimilation methods use the forward transport model to search for a source configuration that best matches the measured data and simultaneously provide an estimate of the level of confidence in the correctness of such configuration. In this work the holdup problem is re-interpreted as an inverse problem that is under-determined, hence may permit multiple solutions. A probabilistic approach is applied to solving the resulting inverse problem. This approach rates possible solutions according to their plausibility given the measurements and initial information. This is accomplished through the use of Bayes’ Theorem that resolves the issue of multiple solutions by giving an estimate of the probability of observing each possible solution. To use

Ridge Distance Estimation in Fingerprint Images: Algorithm and Performance Evaluation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tian Jie

2004-01-01

Full Text Available It is important to estimate the ridge distance accurately, an intrinsic texture property of a fingerprint image. Up to now, only several articles have touched directly upon ridge distance estimation. Little has been published providing detailed evaluation of methods for ridge distance estimation, in particular, the traditional spectral analysis method applied in the frequency field. In this paper, a novel method on nonoverlap blocks, called the statistical method, is presented to estimate the ridge distance. Direct estimation ratio (DER and estimation accuracy (EA are defined and used as parameters along with time consumption (TC to evaluate performance of these two methods for ridge distance estimation. Based on comparison of performances of these two methods, a third hybrid method is developed to combine the merits of both methods. Experimental results indicate that DER is 44.7%, 63.8%, and 80.6%; EA is 84%, 93%, and 91%; and TC is , , and seconds, with the spectral analysis method, statistical method, and hybrid method, respectively.

Consideration of QRS complex in addition to ST-segment abnormalities in the estimated "risk region" during acute anterior myocardial infarction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

van Hellemond, Irene E. G.; Bouwmeester, Sjoerd; Olson, Charles W.

2011-01-01

a falsely low estimated total MaR if determined by using ST segment-based methods. The purpose of this study was to investigate if consideration of the abnormalities in the QRS complex, in addition to those in the ST segment, provides a more accurate estimated total MaR during anterior AMI than...

Base pair probability estimates improve the prediction accuracy of RNA non-canonical base pairs.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael F Sloma

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Prediction of RNA tertiary structure from sequence is an important problem, but generating accurate structure models for even short sequences remains difficult. Predictions of RNA tertiary structure tend to be least accurate in loop regions, where non-canonical pairs are important for determining the details of structure. Non-canonical pairs can be predicted using a knowledge-based model of structure that scores nucleotide cyclic motifs, or NCMs. In this work, a partition function algorithm is introduced that allows the estimation of base pairing probabilities for both canonical and non-canonical interactions. Pairs that are predicted to be probable are more likely to be found in the true structure than pairs of lower probability. Pair probability estimates can be further improved by predicting the structure conserved across multiple homologous sequences using the TurboFold algorithm. These pairing probabilities, used in concert with prior knowledge of the canonical secondary structure, allow accurate inference of non-canonical pairs, an important step towards accurate prediction of the full tertiary structure. Software to predict non-canonical base pairs and pairing probabilities is now provided as part of the RNAstructure software package.

Base pair probability estimates improve the prediction accuracy of RNA non-canonical base pairs.

Science.gov (United States)

Sloma, Michael F; Mathews, David H

2017-11-01

Prediction of RNA tertiary structure from sequence is an important problem, but generating accurate structure models for even short sequences remains difficult. Predictions of RNA tertiary structure tend to be least accurate in loop regions, where non-canonical pairs are important for determining the details of structure. Non-canonical pairs can be predicted using a knowledge-based model of structure that scores nucleotide cyclic motifs, or NCMs. In this work, a partition function algorithm is introduced that allows the estimation of base pairing probabilities for both canonical and non-canonical interactions. Pairs that are predicted to be probable are more likely to be found in the true structure than pairs of lower probability. Pair probability estimates can be further improved by predicting the structure conserved across multiple homologous sequences using the TurboFold algorithm. These pairing probabilities, used in concert with prior knowledge of the canonical secondary structure, allow accurate inference of non-canonical pairs, an important step towards accurate prediction of the full tertiary structure. Software to predict non-canonical base pairs and pairing probabilities is now provided as part of the RNAstructure software package.

Estimating return levels from maxima of non-stationary random sequences using the Generalized PWM method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Ribereau

2008-12-01

Full Text Available Since the pioneering work of Landwehr et al. (1979, Hosking et al. (1985 and their collaborators, the Probability Weighted Moments (PWM method has been very popular, simple and efficient to estimate the parameters of the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV distribution when modeling the distribution of maxima (e.g., annual maxima of precipitations in the Identically and Independently Distributed (IID context. When the IID assumption is not satisfied, a flexible alternative, the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE approach offers an elegant way to handle non-stationarities by letting the GEV parameters to be time dependent. Despite its qualities, the MLE applied to the GEV distribution does not always provide accurate return level estimates, especially for small sample sizes or heavy tails. These drawbacks are particularly true in some non-stationary situations. To reduce these negative effects, we propose to extend the PWM method to a more general framework that enables us to model temporal covariates and provide accurate GEV-based return levels. Theoretical properties of our estimators are discussed. Small and moderate sample sizes simulations in a non-stationary context are analyzed and two brief applications to annual maxima of CO₂ and seasonal maxima of cumulated daily precipitations are presented.

Airborne lidar-based estimates of tropical forest structure in complex terrain: opportunities and trade-offs for REDD+

Science.gov (United States)

Leitold, Veronika; Keller, Michael; Morton, Douglas C; Cook, Bruce D; Shimabukuro, Yosio E

2015-12-01

Carbon stocks and fluxes in tropical forests remain large sources of uncertainty in the global carbon budget. Airborne lidar remote sensing is a powerful tool for estimating aboveground biomass, provided that lidar measurements penetrate dense forest vegetation to generate accurate estimates of surface topography and canopy heights. Tropical forest areas with complex topography present a challenge for lidar remote sensing. We compared digital terrain models (DTM) derived from airborne lidar data from a mountainous region of the Atlantic Forest in Brazil to 35 ground control points measured with survey grade GNSS receivers. The terrain model generated from full-density (~20 returns m -2 ) data was highly accurate (mean signed error of 0.19 ± 0.97 m), while those derived from reduced-density datasets (8 m -2 , 4 m -2 , 2 m -2 and 1 m -2 ) were increasingly less accurate. Canopy heights calculated from reduced-density lidar data declined as data density decreased due to the inability to accurately model the terrain surface. For lidar return densities below 4 m -2 , the bias in height estimates translated into errors of 80-125 Mg ha -1 in predicted aboveground biomass. Given the growing emphasis on the use of airborne lidar for forest management, carbon monitoring, and conservation efforts, the results of this study highlight the importance of careful survey planning and consistent sampling for accurate quantification of aboveground biomass stocks and dynamics. Approaches that rely primarily on canopy height to estimate aboveground biomass are sensitive to DTM errors from variability in lidar sampling density.

Automotive FMCW Radar-Enhanced Range Estimation via a Local Resampling Fourier Transform

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cailing Wang

2016-02-01

Full Text Available In complex traffic scenarios, more accurate measurement and discrimination for an automotive frequency-modulated continuous-wave (FMCW radar is required for intelligent robots, driverless cars and driver-assistant systems. A more accurate range estimation method based on a local resampling Fourier transform (LRFT for a FMCW radar is developed in this paper. Radar signal correlation in the phase space sees a higher signal-noise-ratio (SNR to achieve more accurate ranging, and the LRFT - which acts on a local neighbour as a refinement step - can achieve a more accurate target range. The rough range is estimated through conditional pulse compression (PC and then, around the initial rough estimation, a refined estimation through the LRFT in the local region achieves greater precision. Furthermore, the LRFT algorithm is tested in numerous simulations and physical system experiments, which show that the LRFT algorithm achieves a more precise range estimation than traditional FFT-based algorithms, especially for lower bandwidth signals.

A practical way to estimate retail tobacco sales violation rates more accurately.

Science.gov (United States)

Levinson, Arnold H; Patnaik, Jennifer L

2013-11-01

U.S. states annually estimate retailer propensity to sell adolescents cigarettes, which is a violation of law, by staging a single purchase attempt among a random sample of tobacco businesses. The accuracy of single-visit estimates is unknown. We examined this question using a novel test-retest protocol. Supervised minors attempted to purchase cigarettes at all retail tobacco businesses located in 3 Colorado counties. The attempts observed federal standards: Minors were aged 15-16 years, were nonsmokers, and were free of visible tattoos and piercings, and were allowed to enter stores alone or in pairs to purchase a small item while asking for cigarettes and to show or not show genuine identification (ID, e.g., driver's license). Unlike federal standards, stores received a second purchase attempt within a few days unless minors were firmly told not to return. Separate violation rates were calculated for first visits, second visits, and either visit. Eleven minors attempted to purchase cigarettes 1,079 times from 671 retail businesses. One sixth of first visits (16.8%) resulted in a violation; the rate was similar for second visits (15.7%). Considering either visit, 25.3% of businesses failed the test. Factors predictive of violation were whether clerks asked for ID, whether the clerks closely examined IDs, and whether minors included snacks or soft drinks in cigarette purchase attempts. A test-retest protocol for estimating underage cigarette sales detected half again as many businesses in violation as the federally approved one-test protocol. Federal policy makers should consider using the test-retest protocol to increase accuracy and awareness of widespread adolescent access to cigarettes through retail businesses.

Development of Deep Learning Based Data Fusion Approach for Accurate Rainfall Estimation Using Ground Radar and Satellite Precipitation Products

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, H.; Chandra, C. V.; Tan, H.; Cifelli, R.; Xie, P.

2016-12-01

Rainfall estimation based on onboard satellite measurements has been an important topic in satellite meteorology for decades. A number of precipitation products at multiple time and space scales have been developed based upon satellite observations. For example, NOAA Climate Prediction Center has developed a morphing technique (i.e., CMORPH) to produce global precipitation products by combining existing space based rainfall estimates. The CMORPH products are essentially derived based on geostationary satellite IR brightness temperature information and retrievals from passive microwave measurements (Joyce et al. 2004). Although the space-based precipitation products provide an excellent tool for regional and global hydrologic and climate studies as well as improved situational awareness for operational forecasts, its accuracy is limited due to the sampling limitations, particularly for extreme events such as very light and/or heavy rain. On the other hand, ground-based radar is more mature science for quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE), especially after the implementation of dual-polarization technique and further enhanced by urban scale radar networks. Therefore, ground radars are often critical for providing local scale rainfall estimation and a "heads-up" for operational forecasters to issue watches and warnings as well as validation of various space measurements and products. The CASA DFW QPE system, which is based on dual-polarization X-band CASA radars and a local S-band WSR-88DP radar, has demonstrated its excellent performance during several years of operation in a variety of precipitation regimes. The real-time CASA DFW QPE products are used extensively for localized hydrometeorological applications such as urban flash flood forecasting. In this paper, a neural network based data fusion mechanism is introduced to improve the satellite-based CMORPH precipitation product by taking into account the ground radar measurements. A deep learning system is

Traveltime approximations and parameter estimation for orthorhombic media

KAUST Repository

Masmoudi, Nabil

2016-05-30

Building anisotropy models is necessary for seismic modeling and imaging. However, anisotropy estimation is challenging due to the trade-off between inhomogeneity and anisotropy. Luckily, we can estimate the anisotropy parameters Building anisotropy models is necessary for seismic modeling and imaging. However, anisotropy estimation is challenging due to the trade-off between inhomogeneity and anisotropy. Luckily, we can estimate the anisotropy parameters if we relate them analytically to traveltimes. Using perturbation theory, we have developed traveltime approximations for orthorhombic media as explicit functions of the anellipticity parameters η1, η2, and Δχ in inhomogeneous background media. The parameter Δχ is related to Tsvankin-Thomsen notation and ensures easier computation of traveltimes in the background model. Specifically, our expansion assumes an inhomogeneous ellipsoidal anisotropic background model, which can be obtained from well information and stacking velocity analysis. We have used the Shanks transform to enhance the accuracy of the formulas. A homogeneous medium simplification of the traveltime expansion provided a nonhyperbolic moveout description of the traveltime that was more accurate than other derived approximations. Moreover, the formulation provides a computationally efficient tool to solve the eikonal equation of an orthorhombic medium, without any constraints on the background model complexity. Although, the expansion is based on the factorized representation of the perturbation parameters, smooth variations of these parameters (represented as effective values) provides reasonable results. Thus, this formulation provides a mechanism to estimate the three effective parameters η1, η2, and Δχ. We have derived Dix-type formulas for orthorhombic medium to convert the effective parameters to their interval values.

Accurate Online Full Charge Capacity Modeling of Smartphone Batteries

OpenAIRE

Hoque, Mohammad A.; Siekkinen, Matti; Koo, Jonghoe; Tarkoma, Sasu

2016-01-01

Full charge capacity (FCC) refers to the amount of energy a battery can hold. It is the fundamental property of smartphone batteries that diminishes as the battery ages and is charged/discharged. We investigate the behavior of smartphone batteries while charging and demonstrate that the battery voltage and charging rate information can together characterize the FCC of a battery. We propose a new method for accurately estimating FCC without exposing low-level system details or introducing new ...

Estimating diversification rates for higher taxa: BAMM can give problematic estimates of rates and rate shifts.

Science.gov (United States)

Meyer, Andreas L S; Wiens, John J

2018-01-01

Estimates of diversification rates are invaluable for many macroevolutionary studies. Recently, an approach called BAMM (Bayesian Analysis of Macro-evolutionary Mixtures) has become widely used for estimating diversification rates and rate shifts. At the same time, several articles have concluded that estimates of net diversification rates from the method-of-moments (MS) estimators are inaccurate. Yet, no studies have compared the ability of these two methods to accurately estimate clade diversification rates. Here, we use simulations to compare their performance. We found that BAMM yielded relatively weak relationships between true and estimated diversification rates. This occurred because BAMM underestimated the number of rates shifts across each tree, and assigned high rates to small clades with low rates. Errors in both speciation and extinction rates contributed to these errors, showing that using BAMM to estimate only speciation rates is also problematic. In contrast, the MS estimators (particularly using stem group ages), yielded stronger relationships between true and estimated diversification rates, by roughly twofold. Furthermore, the MS approach remained relatively accurate when diversification rates were heterogeneous within clades, despite the widespread assumption that it requires constant rates within clades. Overall, we caution that BAMM may be problematic for estimating diversification rates and rate shifts. © 2017 The Author(s). Evolution © 2017 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

ModFOLD6: an accurate web server for the global and local quality estimation of 3D protein models.

Science.gov (United States)

Maghrabi, Ali H A; McGuffin, Liam J

2017-07-03

Methods that reliably estimate the likely similarity between the predicted and native structures of proteins have become essential for driving the acceptance and adoption of three-dimensional protein models by life scientists. ModFOLD6 is the latest version of our leading resource for Estimates of Model Accuracy (EMA), which uses a pioneering hybrid quasi-single model approach. The ModFOLD6 server integrates scores from three pure-single model methods and three quasi-single model methods using a neural network to estimate local quality scores. Additionally, the server provides three options for producing global score estimates, depending on the requirements of the user: (i) ModFOLD6_rank, which is optimized for ranking/selection, (ii) ModFOLD6_cor, which is optimized for correlations of predicted and observed scores and (iii) ModFOLD6 global for balanced performance. The ModFOLD6 methods rank among the top few for EMA, according to independent blind testing by the CASP12 assessors. The ModFOLD6 server is also continuously automatically evaluated as part of the CAMEO project, where significant performance gains have been observed compared to our previous server and other publicly available servers. The ModFOLD6 server is freely available at: http://www.reading.ac.uk/bioinf/ModFOLD/. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

Accurate characterisation of hole size and location by projected fringe profilometry

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Yuxiang; Dantanarayana, Harshana G.; Yue, Huimin; Huntley, Jonathan M.

2018-06-01

The ability to accurately estimate the location and geometry of holes is often required in the field of quality control and automated assembly. Projected fringe profilometry is a potentially attractive technique on account of being non-contacting, of lower cost, and orders of magnitude faster than the traditional coordinate measuring machine. However, we demonstrate in this paper that fringe projection is susceptible to significant (hundreds of µm) measurement artefacts in the neighbourhood of hole edges, which give rise to errors of a similar magnitude in the estimated hole geometry. A mechanism for the phenomenon is identified based on the finite size of the imaging system’s point spread function and the resulting bias produced near to sample discontinuities in geometry and reflectivity. A mathematical model is proposed, from which a post-processing compensation algorithm is developed to suppress such errors around the holes. The algorithm includes a robust and accurate sub-pixel edge detection method based on a Fourier descriptor of the hole contour. The proposed algorithm was found to reduce significantly the measurement artefacts near the hole edges. As a result, the errors in estimated hole radius were reduced by up to one order of magnitude, to a few tens of µm for hole radii in the range 2–15 mm, compared to those from the uncompensated measurements.

A proposed method to estimate premorbid full scale intelligence quotient (FSIQ) for the Canadian Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-Fourth Edition (WISC-IV) using demographic and combined estimation procedures.

Science.gov (United States)

Schoenberg, Mike R; Lange, Rael T; Saklofske, Donald H

2007-11-01

Establishing a comparison standard in neuropsychological assessment is crucial to determining change in function. There is no available method to estimate premorbid intellectual functioning for the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-Fourth Edition (WISC-IV). The WISC-IV provided normative data for both American and Canadian children aged 6 to 16 years old. This study developed regression algorithms as a proposed method to estimate full-scale intelligence quotient (FSIQ) for the Canadian WISC-IV. Participants were the Canadian WISC-IV standardization sample (n = 1,100). The sample was randomly divided into two groups (development and validation groups). The development group was used to generate regression algorithms; 1 algorithm only included demographics, and 11 combined demographic variables with WISC-IV subtest raw scores. The algorithms accounted for 18% to 70% of the variance in FSIQ (standard error of estimate, SEE = 8.6 to 14.2). Estimated FSIQ significantly correlated with actual FSIQ (r = .30 to .80), and the majority of individual FSIQ estimates were within +/-10 points of actual FSIQ. The demographic-only algorithm was less accurate than algorithms combining demographic variables with subtest raw scores. The current algorithms yielded accurate estimates of current FSIQ for Canadian individuals aged 6-16 years old. The potential application of the algorithms to estimate premorbid FSIQ is reviewed. While promising, clinical validation of the algorithms in a sample of children and/or adolescents with known neurological dysfunction is needed to establish these algorithms as a premorbid estimation procedure.

Effects of LiDAR point density, sampling size and height threshold on estimation accuracy of crop biophysical parameters.

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Shezhou; Chen, Jing M; Wang, Cheng; Xi, Xiaohuan; Zeng, Hongcheng; Peng, Dailiang; Li, Dong

2016-05-30

Vegetation leaf area index (LAI), height, and aboveground biomass are key biophysical parameters. Corn is an important and globally distributed crop, and reliable estimations of these parameters are essential for corn yield forecasting, health monitoring and ecosystem modeling. Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) is considered an effective technology for estimating vegetation biophysical parameters. However, the estimation accuracies of these parameters are affected by multiple factors. In this study, we first estimated corn LAI, height and biomass (R2 = 0.80, 0.874 and 0.838, respectively) using the original LiDAR data (7.32 points/m2), and the results showed that LiDAR data could accurately estimate these biophysical parameters. Second, comprehensive research was conducted on the effects of LiDAR point density, sampling size and height threshold on the estimation accuracy of LAI, height and biomass. Our findings indicated that LiDAR point density had an important effect on the estimation accuracy for vegetation biophysical parameters, however, high point density did not always produce highly accurate estimates, and reduced point density could deliver reasonable estimation results. Furthermore, the results showed that sampling size and height threshold were additional key factors that affect the estimation accuracy of biophysical parameters. Therefore, the optimal sampling size and the height threshold should be determined to improve the estimation accuracy of biophysical parameters. Our results also implied that a higher LiDAR point density, larger sampling size and height threshold were required to obtain accurate corn LAI estimation when compared with height and biomass estimations. In general, our results provide valuable guidance for LiDAR data acquisition and estimation of vegetation biophysical parameters using LiDAR data.

Parameter estimation in IMEX-trigonometrically fitted methods for the numerical solution of reaction-diffusion problems

Science.gov (United States)

D'Ambrosio, Raffaele; Moccaldi, Martina; Paternoster, Beatrice

2018-05-01

In this paper, an adapted numerical scheme for reaction-diffusion problems generating periodic wavefronts is introduced. Adapted numerical methods for such evolutionary problems are specially tuned to follow prescribed qualitative behaviors of the solutions, making the numerical scheme more accurate and efficient as compared with traditional schemes already known in the literature. Adaptation through the so-called exponential fitting technique leads to methods whose coefficients depend on unknown parameters related to the dynamics and aimed to be numerically computed. Here we propose a strategy for a cheap and accurate estimation of such parameters, which consists essentially in minimizing the leading term of the local truncation error whose expression is provided in a rigorous accuracy analysis. In particular, the presented estimation technique has been applied to a numerical scheme based on combining an adapted finite difference discretization in space with an implicit-explicit time discretization. Numerical experiments confirming the effectiveness of the approach are also provided.

Estimation of time averages from irregularly spaced observations - With application to coastal zone color scanner estimates of chlorophyll concentration

Science.gov (United States)

Chelton, Dudley B.; Schlax, Michael G.

1991-01-01

The sampling error of an arbitrary linear estimate of a time-averaged quantity constructed from a time series of irregularly spaced observations at a fixed located is quantified through a formalism. The method is applied to satellite observations of chlorophyll from the coastal zone color scanner. The two specific linear estimates under consideration are the composite average formed from the simple average of all observations within the averaging period and the optimal estimate formed by minimizing the mean squared error of the temporal average based on all the observations in the time series. The resulting suboptimal estimates are shown to be more accurate than composite averages. Suboptimal estimates are also found to be nearly as accurate as optimal estimates using the correct signal and measurement error variances and correlation functions for realistic ranges of these parameters, which makes it a viable practical alternative to the composite average method generally employed at present.

A flexible fuzzy regression algorithm for forecasting oil consumption estimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Azadeh, A.; Khakestani, M.; Saberi, M.

2009-01-01

Oil consumption plays a vital role in socio-economic development of most countries. This study presents a flexible fuzzy regression algorithm for forecasting oil consumption based on standard economic indicators. The standard indicators are annual population, cost of crude oil import, gross domestic production (GDP) and annual oil production in the last period. The proposed algorithm uses analysis of variance (ANOVA) to select either fuzzy regression or conventional regression for future demand estimation. The significance of the proposed algorithm is three fold. First, it is flexible and identifies the best model based on the results of ANOVA and minimum absolute percentage error (MAPE), whereas previous studies consider the best fitted fuzzy regression model based on MAPE or other relative error results. Second, the proposed model may identify conventional regression as the best model for future oil consumption forecasting because of its dynamic structure, whereas previous studies assume that fuzzy regression always provide the best solutions and estimation. Third, it utilizes the most standard independent variables for the regression models. To show the applicability and superiority of the proposed flexible fuzzy regression algorithm the data for oil consumption in Canada, United States, Japan and Australia from 1990 to 2005 are used. The results show that the flexible algorithm provides accurate solution for oil consumption estimation problem. The algorithm may be used by policy makers to accurately foresee the behavior of oil consumption in various regions.

AtomDB: Expanding an Accessible and Accurate Atomic Database for X-ray Astronomy

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Randall

Since its inception in 2001, the AtomDB has become the standard repository of accurate and accessible atomic data for the X-ray astrophysics community, including laboratory astrophysicists, observers, and modelers. Modern calculations of collisional excitation rates now exist - and are in AtomDB - for all abundant ions in a hot plasma. AtomDB has expanded beyond providing just a collisional model, and now also contains photoionization data from XSTAR as well as a charge exchange model, amongst others. However, building and maintaining an accurate and complete database that can fully exploit the diagnostic potential of high-resolution X-ray spectra requires further work. The Hitomi results, sadly limited as they were, demonstrated the urgent need for the best possible wavelength and rate data, not merely for the strongest lines but for the diagnostic features that may have 1% or less of the flux of the strong lines. In particular, incorporation of weak but powerfully diagnostic satellite lines will be crucial to understanding the spectra expected from upcoming deep observations with Chandra and XMM-Newton, as well as the XARM and Athena satellites. Beyond incorporating this new data, a number of groups, both experimental and theoretical, have begun to produce data with errors and/or sensitivity estimates. We plan to use this to create statistically meaningful spectral errors on collisional plasmas, providing practical uncertainties together with model spectra. We propose to continue to (1) engage the X-ray astrophysics community regarding their issues and needs, notably by a critical comparison with other related databases and tools, (2) enhance AtomDB to incorporate a large number of satellite lines as well as updated wavelengths with error estimates, (3) continue to update the AtomDB with the latest calculations and laboratory measurements, in particular velocity-dependent charge exchange rates, and (4) enhance existing tools, and create new ones as needed to

Accurate and robust phylogeny estimation based on profile distances: a study of the Chlorophyceae (Chlorophyta

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rahmann Sven

2004-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background In phylogenetic analysis we face the problem that several subclade topologies are known or easily inferred and well supported by bootstrap analysis, but basal branching patterns cannot be unambiguously estimated by the usual methods (maximum parsimony (MP, neighbor-joining (NJ, or maximum likelihood (ML, nor are they well supported. We represent each subclade by a sequence profile and estimate evolutionary distances between profiles to obtain a matrix of distances between subclades. Results Our estimator of profile distances generalizes the maximum likelihood estimator of sequence distances. The basal branching pattern can be estimated by any distance-based method, such as neighbor-joining. Our method (profile neighbor-joining, PNJ then inherits the accuracy and robustness of profiles and the time efficiency of neighbor-joining. Conclusions Phylogenetic analysis of Chlorophyceae with traditional methods (MP, NJ, ML and MrBayes reveals seven well supported subclades, but the methods disagree on the basal branching pattern. The tree reconstructed by our method is better supported and can be confirmed by known morphological characters. Moreover the accuracy is significantly improved as shown by parametric bootstrap.

Risk estimation using probability machines

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

Background Logistic regression has been the de facto, and often the only, model used in the description and analysis of relationships between a binary outcome and observed features. It is widely used to obtain the conditional probabilities of the outcome given predictors, as well as predictor effect size estimates using conditional odds ratios. Results We show how statistical learning machines for binary outcomes, provably consistent for the nonparametric regression problem, can be used to provide both consistent conditional probability estimation and conditional effect size estimates. Effect size estimates from learning machines leverage our understanding of counterfactual arguments central to the interpretation of such estimates. We show that, if the data generating model is logistic, we can recover accurate probability predictions and effect size estimates with nearly the same efficiency as a correct logistic model, both for main effects and interactions. We also propose a method using learning machines to scan for possible interaction effects quickly and efficiently. Simulations using random forest probability machines are presented. Conclusions The models we propose make no assumptions about the data structure, and capture the patterns in the data by just specifying the predictors involved and not any particular model structure. So they do not run the same risks of model mis-specification and the resultant estimation biases as a logistic model. This methodology, which we call a “risk machine”, will share properties from the statistical machine that it is derived from. PMID:24581306

Estimation of the measurement uncertainty in magnetic resonance velocimetry based on statistical models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bruschewski, Martin; Schiffer, Heinz-Peter [Technische Universitaet Darmstadt, Institute of Gas Turbines and Aerospace Propulsion, Darmstadt (Germany); Freudenhammer, Daniel [Technische Universitaet Darmstadt, Institute of Fluid Mechanics and Aerodynamics, Center of Smart Interfaces, Darmstadt (Germany); Buchenberg, Waltraud B. [University Medical Center Freiburg, Medical Physics, Department of Radiology, Freiburg (Germany); Grundmann, Sven [University of Rostock, Institute of Fluid Mechanics, Rostock (Germany)

2016-05-15

Velocity measurements with magnetic resonance velocimetry offer outstanding possibilities for experimental fluid mechanics. The purpose of this study was to provide practical guidelines for the estimation of the measurement uncertainty in such experiments. Based on various test cases, it is shown that the uncertainty estimate can vary substantially depending on how the uncertainty is obtained. The conventional approach to estimate the uncertainty from the noise in the artifact-free background can lead to wrong results. A deviation of up to -75% is observed with the presented experiments. In addition, a similarly high deviation is demonstrated with the data from other studies. As a more accurate approach, the uncertainty is estimated directly from the image region with the flow sample. Two possible estimation methods are presented. (orig.)

Estimation of the measurement uncertainty in magnetic resonance velocimetry based on statistical models

Science.gov (United States)

Bruschewski, Martin; Freudenhammer, Daniel; Buchenberg, Waltraud B.; Schiffer, Heinz-Peter; Grundmann, Sven

2016-05-01

Velocity measurements with magnetic resonance velocimetry offer outstanding possibilities for experimental fluid mechanics. The purpose of this study was to provide practical guidelines for the estimation of the measurement uncertainty in such experiments. Based on various test cases, it is shown that the uncertainty estimate can vary substantially depending on how the uncertainty is obtained. The conventional approach to estimate the uncertainty from the noise in the artifact-free background can lead to wrong results. A deviation of up to -75 % is observed with the presented experiments. In addition, a similarly high deviation is demonstrated with the data from other studies. As a more accurate approach, the uncertainty is estimated directly from the image region with the flow sample. Two possible estimation methods are presented.

NASA Land Information System (LIS) Water Availability to Support Reclamation ET Estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Toll, David; Arsenault, Kristi; Pinheiro, Ana; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Houser, Paul; Kumar, Sujay; Engman, Ted; Nigro, Joe; Triggs, Jonathan

2005-01-01

The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation identified the remote sensing of evapotranspiration (ET) as an important water flux for study and designated a test site in the Lower Colorado River basin. A consortium of groups will work together with the goal to develop more accurate and cost effective techniques using the enhanced spatial and temporal coverage afforded by remote sensing. ET is a critical water loss flux where improved estimation should lead to better management of Reclamation responsibilities. There are several areas where NASA satellite and modeling data may be useful to meet Reclamation's objectives for improved ET estimation. In this paper we outline one possible contribution to use NASA's data integration capability of the Land Information System (LIS) to provide a merger of observational (in situ and satellite) with physical process models to provide estimates of ET and other water availability outputs (e.g., runoff, soil moisture) retrospectively, in near real-time, and also providing short-term predictions.

Design flood hydrograph estimation procedure for small and fully-ungauged basins

Science.gov (United States)

Grimaldi, S.; Petroselli, A.

2013-12-01

The Rational Formula is the most applied equation in practical hydrology due to its simplicity and the effective compromise between theory and data availability. Although the Rational Formula is affected by several drawbacks, it is reliable and surprisingly accurate considering the paucity of input information. However, after more than a century, the recent computational, theoretical, and large-scale monitoring progresses compel us to try to suggest a more advanced yet still empirical procedure for estimating peak discharge in small and ungauged basins. In this contribution an alternative empirical procedure (named EBA4SUB - Event Based Approach for Small and Ungauged Basins) based on the common modelling steps: design hyetograph, rainfall excess, and rainfall-runoff transformation, is described. The proposed approach, accurately adapted for the fully-ungauged basin condition, provides a potentially better estimation of the peak discharge, a design hydrograph shape, and, most importantly, reduces the subjectivity of the hydrologist in its application.

Estimation of rates-across-sites distributions in phylogenetic substitution models.

Science.gov (United States)

Susko, Edward; Field, Chris; Blouin, Christian; Roger, Andrew J

2003-10-01

Previous work has shown that it is often essential to account for the variation in rates at different sites in phylogenetic models in order to avoid phylogenetic artifacts such as long branch attraction. In most current models, the gamma distribution is used for the rates-across-sites distributions and is implemented as an equal-probability discrete gamma. In this article, we introduce discrete distribution estimates with large numbers of equally spaced rate categories allowing us to investigate the appropriateness of the gamma model. With large numbers of rate categories, these discrete estimates are flexible enough to approximate the shape of almost any distribution. Likelihood ratio statistical tests and a nonparametric bootstrap confidence-bound estimation procedure based on the discrete estimates are presented that can be used to test the fit of a parametric family. We applied the methodology to several different protein data sets, and found that although the gamma model often provides a good parametric model for this type of data, rate estimates from an equal-probability discrete gamma model with a small number of categories will tend to underestimate the largest rates. In cases when the gamma model assumption is in doubt, rate estimates coming from the discrete rate distribution estimate with a large number of rate categories provide a robust alternative to gamma estimates. An alternative implementation of the gamma distribution is proposed that, for equal numbers of rate categories, is computationally more efficient during optimization than the standard gamma implementation and can provide more accurate estimates of site rates.

Performance of the METRIC model in estimating evapotranspiration fluxes over an irrigated field in Saudi Arabia using Landsat-8 images

Science.gov (United States)

Madugundu, Rangaswamy; Al-Gaadi, Khalid A.; Tola, ElKamil; Hassaballa, Abdalhaleem A.; Patil, Virupakshagouda C.

2017-12-01

Accurate estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) is essential for hydrological modeling and efficient crop water management in hyper-arid climates. In this study, we applied the METRIC algorithm on Landsat-8 images, acquired from June to October 2013, for the mapping of ET of a 50 ha center-pivot irrigated alfalfa field in the eastern region of Saudi Arabia. The METRIC-estimated energy balance components and ET were evaluated against the data provided by an eddy covariance (EC) flux tower installed in the field. Results indicated that the METRIC algorithm provided accurate ET estimates over the study area, with RMSE values of 0.13 and 4.15 mm d-1. The METRIC algorithm was observed to perform better in full canopy conditions compared to partial canopy conditions. On average, the METRIC algorithm overestimated the hourly ET by 6.6 % in comparison to the EC measurements; however, the daily ET was underestimated by 4.2 %.

Heart rate during basketball game play and volleyball drills accurately predicts oxygen uptake and energy expenditure.

Science.gov (United States)

Scribbans, T D; Berg, K; Narazaki, K; Janssen, I; Gurd, B J

2015-09-01

There is currently little information regarding the ability of metabolic prediction equations to accurately predict oxygen uptake and exercise intensity from heart rate (HR) during intermittent sport. The purpose of the present study was to develop and, cross-validate equations appropriate for accurately predicting oxygen cost (VO2) and energy expenditure from HR during intermittent sport participation. Eleven healthy adult males (19.9±1.1yrs) were recruited to establish the relationship between %VO2peak and %HRmax during low-intensity steady state endurance (END), moderate-intensity interval (MOD) and high intensity-interval exercise (HI), as performed on a cycle ergometer. Three equations (END, MOD, and HI) for predicting %VO2peak based on %HRmax were developed. HR and VO2 were directly measured during basketball games (6 male, 20.8±1.0 yrs; 6 female, 20.0±1.3yrs) and volleyball drills (12 female; 20.8±1.0yrs). Comparisons were made between measured and predicted VO2 and energy expenditure using the 3 equations developed and 2 previously published equations. The END and MOD equations accurately predicted VO2 and energy expenditure, while the HI equation underestimated, and the previously published equations systematically overestimated VO2 and energy expenditure. Intermittent sport VO2 and energy expenditure can be accurately predicted from heart rate data using either the END (%VO2peak=%HRmax x 1.008-17.17) or MOD (%VO2peak=%HRmax x 1.2-32) equations. These 2 simple equations provide an accessible and cost-effective method for accurate estimation of exercise intensity and energy expenditure during intermittent sport.

Accurate estimation of global and regional cardiac function by retrospectively gated multidetector row computed tomography. Comparison with cine magnetic resonance imaging

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Belge, Benedicte; Pasquet, Agnes; Vanoverschelde, Jean-Louis J.; Coche, Emmanuel; Gerber, Bernhard L.

2006-01-01

Retrospective reconstruction of ECG-gated images at different parts of the cardiac cycle allows the assessment of cardiac function by multi-detector row CT (MDCT) at the time of non-invasive coronary imaging. We compared the accuracy of such measurements by MDCT to cine magnetic resonance (MR). Forty patients underwent the assessment of global and regional cardiac function by 16-slice MDCT and cine MR. Left ventricular (LV) end-diastolic and end-systolic volumes estimated by MDCT (134±51 and 67±56 ml) were similar to those by MR (137±57 and 70±60 ml, respectively; both P=NS) and strongly correlated (r=0.92 and r=0.95, respectively; both P<0.001). Consequently, LV ejection fractions by MDCT and MR were also similar (55±21 vs. 56±21%; P=NS) and highly correlated (r=0.95; P<0.001). Regional end-diastolic and end-systolic wall thicknesses by MDCT were highly correlated (r=0.84 and r=0.92, respectively; both P<0.001), but significantly lower than by MR (8.3±1.8 vs. 8.8±1.9 mm and 12.7±3.4 vs. 13.3±3.5 mm, respectively; both P<0.001). Values of regional wall thickening by MDCT and MR were similar (54±30 vs. 51±31%; P=NS) and also correlated well (r=0.91; P<0.001). Retrospectively gated MDCT can accurately estimate LV volumes, EF and regional LV wall thickening compared to cine MR. (orig.)

[Estimation of PMI using late postmortem phenomena in the basis of 49 cases].

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Yu-Feng; Zhu, Zhi-Wei; Pan, Lian-Lian; Zhou, Jia-Li

2012-12-01

To discuss the influencing factors of using late postmortem phenomena to estimate PMI and to provide experience for an accurate estimation. Forty-nine corpses of late postmortem were collected in Shaoxing City, Zhuji area from 2004 to 2011. The related factors were analyzed including season, scene, estimated PMI, exact PMI, cause of death and main factors effected PMI, etc. Of all 49 cases, 20 corpses were outdoor, 11 were indoor and 18 were in water. Thirty-seven cases were successful to estimate PMI and 12 cases were unsuccessful. The main factors affected PMI were infection, poisoning, human destruction and high-pressure electric shock, etc. In general, PMI can be correctly estimated by late postmortem phenomenon. When the cases included infection, poisoning and human destruction, we should estimate PMI with the comprehensive analysis.

Estimating Common Pedestrian Routes through Indoor Path Networks using Position Traces

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Prentow, Thor Siiger; Blunck, Henrik; Grønbæk, Kaj

2014-01-01

routes between locations. These methods are sufficiently efficient to provide common routes based on real-time data from thousands of devices simultaneously. Furthermore, we show that the methods operate robustly even on basis of noisy and coarse-grained position estimates as provided by large......Abstract—Accurate information about how people commonly travel in a given large-scale building environment and which routes they take for given start and destination points is essential for applications such as indoor navigation, route prediction, and mobile work planning and logistics...

Testing the hierarchical assembly of massive galaxies using accurate merger rates out to z ˜ 1.5

Science.gov (United States)

Rodrigues, Myriam; Puech, M.; Flores, H.; Hammer, F.; Pirzkal, N.

2018-04-01

We established an accurate comparison between observationally and theoretically estimated major merger rates over a large range of mass (log Mbar/M⊙ =9.9-11.4) and redshift (z = 0.7-1.6). For this, we combined a new estimate of the merger rate from an exhaustive count of pairs within the virial radius of massive galaxies at z ˜ 1.265 and cross-validated with their morphology, with estimates from the morpho-kinematic analysis of two other samples. Theoretical predictions were estimated using semi-empirical models with inputs matching the properties of the observed samples, while specific visibility time-scales scaled to the observed samples were used. Both theory and observations are found to agree within 30 per cent of the observed value, which provides strong support to the hierarchical assembly of galaxies over the probed ranges of mass and redshift. Here, we find that ˜60 per cent of population of local massive (Mstellar =1010.3-11.6 M⊙) galaxies would have undergone a wet major merger since z = 1.5, consistently with previous studies. Such recent mergers are expected to result in the (re-)formation of a significant fraction of local disc galaxies.

Joint Multi-Fiber NODDI Parameter Estimation and Tractography using the Unscented Information Filter

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yogesh eRathi

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Tracing white matter fiber bundles is an integral part of analyzing brain connectivity. An accurate estimate of the underlying tissue parameters is also paramount in several neuroscience applications. In this work, we propose to use a joint fiber model estimation and tractography algorithm that uses the NODDI (neurite orientation dispersion diffusion imaging model to estimate fiber orientation dispersion consistently and smoothly along the fiber tracts along with estimating the intracellular and extracellular volume fractions from the diffusion signal. While the NODDI model has been used in earlier works to estimate the microstructural parameters at each voxel independently, for the first time, we propose to integrate it into a tractography framework. We extend this framework to estimate the NODDI parameters for two crossing fibers, which is imperative to trace fiber bundles through crossings as well as to estimate the microstructural parameters for each fiber bundle separately. We propose to use the unscented information filter (UIF to accurately estimate the model parameters and perform tractography. The proposed approach has significant computational performance improvements as well as numerical robustness over the unscented Kalman filter (UKF. Our method not only estimates the confidence in the estimated parameters via the covariance matrix, but also provides the Fisher-information matrix of the state variables (model parameters, which can be quite useful to measure model complexity. Results from in-vivo human brain data sets demonstrate the ability of our algorithm to trace through crossing fiber regions, while estimating orientation dispersion and other biophysical model parameters in a consistent manner along the tracts.

Real-time yield estimation based on deep learning

Science.gov (United States)

Rahnemoonfar, Maryam; Sheppard, Clay

2017-05-01

Crop yield estimation is an important task in product management and marketing. Accurate yield prediction helps farmers to make better decision on cultivation practices, plant disease prevention, and the size of harvest labor force. The current practice of yield estimation based on the manual counting of fruits is very time consuming and expensive process and it is not practical for big fields. Robotic systems including Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) and Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGV), provide an efficient, cost-effective, flexible, and scalable solution for product management and yield prediction. Recently huge data has been gathered from agricultural field, however efficient analysis of those data is still a challenging task. Computer vision approaches currently face diffident challenges in automatic counting of fruits or flowers including occlusion caused by leaves, branches or other fruits, variance in natural illumination, and scale. In this paper a novel deep convolutional network algorithm was developed to facilitate the accurate yield prediction and automatic counting of fruits and vegetables on the images. Our method is robust to occlusion, shadow, uneven illumination and scale. Experimental results in comparison to the state-of-the art show the effectiveness of our algorithm.

Accurate characterization of organic thin film transistors in the presence of gate leakage current

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vinay K. Singh

2011-12-01

Full Text Available The presence of gate leakage through polymer dielectric in organic thin film transistors (OTFT prevents accurate estimation of transistor characteristics especially in subthreshold regime. To mitigate the impact of gate leakage on transfer characteristics and allow accurate estimation of mobility, subthreshold slope and on/off current ratio, a measurement technique involving simultaneous sweep of both gate and drain voltages is proposed. Two dimensional numerical device simulation is used to illustrate the validity of the proposed technique. Experimental results obtained with Pentacene/PMMA OTFT with significant gate leakage show a low on/off current ratio of ∼ 102 and subthreshold is 10 V/decade obtained using conventional measurement technique. The proposed technique reveals that channel on/off current ratio is more than two orders of magnitude higher at ∼104 and subthreshold slope is 4.5 V/decade.

Switching EKF technique for rotor and stator resistance estimation in speed sensorless control of IMs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barut, Murat; Bogosyan, Seta; Gokasan, Metin

2007-01-01

High performance speed sensorless control of induction motors (IMs) calls for estimation and control schemes that offer solutions to parameter uncertainties as well as to difficulties involved with accurate flux/velocity estimation at very low and zero speed. In this study, a new EKF based estimation algorithm is proposed for the solution of both problems and is applied in combination with speed sensorless direct vector control (DVC). The technique is based on the consecutive execution of two EKF algorithms, by switching from one algorithm to another at every n sampling periods. The number of sampling periods, n, is determined based on the desired system performance. The switching EKF approach, thus applied, provides an accurate estimation of an increased number of parameters than would be possible with a single EKF algorithm. The simultaneous and accurate estimation of rotor, R r ' and stator, R s resistances, both in the transient and steady state, is an important challenge in speed sensorless IM control and reported studies achieving satisfactory results are few, if any. With the proposed technique in this study, the sensorless estimation of R r ' and R s is achieved in transient and steady state and in both high and low speed operation while also estimating the unknown load torque, velocity, flux and current components. The performance demonstrated by the simulation results at zero speed, as well as at low and high speed operation is very promising when compared with individual EKF algorithms performing either R r ' or R s estimation or with the few other approaches taken in past studies, which require either signal injection and/or a change of algorithms based on the speed range. The results also motivate utilization of the technique for multiple parameter estimation in a variety of control methods

Measuring Physical Inactivity: Do Current Measures Provide an Accurate View of “Sedentary” Video Game Time?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simon Fullerton

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Background. Measures of screen time are often used to assess sedentary behaviour. Participation in activity-based video games (exergames can contribute to estimates of screen time, as current practices of measuring it do not consider the growing evidence that playing exergames can provide light to moderate levels of physical activity. This study aimed to determine what proportion of time spent playing video games was actually spent playing exergames. Methods. Data were collected via a cross-sectional telephone survey in South Australia. Participants aged 18 years and above (n=2026 were asked about their video game habits, as well as demographic and socioeconomic factors. In cases where children were in the household, the video game habits of a randomly selected child were also questioned. Results. Overall, 31.3% of adults and 79.9% of children spend at least some time playing video games. Of these, 24.1% of adults and 42.1% of children play exergames, with these types of games accounting for a third of all time that adults spend playing video games and nearly 20% of children’s video game time. Conclusions. A substantial proportion of time that would usually be classified as “sedentary” may actually be spent participating in light to moderate physical activity.

Highway travel time estimation with data fusion

CERN Document Server

Soriguera Martí, Francesc

2016-01-01

This monograph presents a simple, innovative approach for the measurement and short-term prediction of highway travel times based on the fusion of inductive loop detector and toll ticket data. The methodology is generic and not technologically captive, allowing it to be easily generalized for other equivalent types of data. The book shows how Bayesian analysis can be used to obtain fused estimates that are more reliable than the original inputs, overcoming some of the drawbacks of travel-time estimations based on unique data sources. The developed methodology adds value and obtains the maximum (in terms of travel time estimation) from the available data, without recurrent and costly requirements for additional data. The application of the algorithms to empirical testing in the AP-7 toll highway in Barcelona proves that it is possible to develop an accurate real-time, travel-time information system on closed-toll highways with the existing surveillance equipment, suggesting that highway operators might provide...

Accurate measurement of junctional conductance between electrically coupled cells with dual whole-cell voltage-clamp under conditions of high series resistance.

Science.gov (United States)

Hartveit, Espen; Veruki, Margaret Lin

2010-03-15

Accurate measurement of the junctional conductance (G(j)) between electrically coupled cells can provide important information about the functional properties of coupling. With the development of tight-seal, whole-cell recording, it became possible to use dual, single-electrode voltage-clamp recording from pairs of small cells to measure G(j). Experiments that require reduced perturbation of the intracellular environment can be performed with high-resistance pipettes or the perforated-patch technique, but an accompanying increase in series resistance (R(s)) compromises voltage-clamp control and reduces the accuracy of G(j) measurements. Here, we present a detailed analysis of methodologies available for accurate determination of steady-state G(j) and related parameters under conditions of high R(s), using continuous or discontinuous single-electrode voltage-clamp (CSEVC or DSEVC) amplifiers to quantify the parameters of different equivalent electrical circuit model cells. Both types of amplifiers can provide accurate measurements of G(j), with errors less than 5% for a wide range of R(s) and G(j) values. However, CSEVC amplifiers need to be combined with R(s)-compensation or mathematical correction for the effects of nonzero R(s) and finite membrane resistance (R(m)). R(s)-compensation is difficult for higher values of R(s) and leads to instability that can damage the recorded cells. Mathematical correction for R(s) and R(m) yields highly accurate results, but depends on accurate estimates of R(s) throughout an experiment. DSEVC amplifiers display very accurate measurements over a larger range of R(s) values than CSEVC amplifiers and have the advantage that knowledge of R(s) is unnecessary, suggesting that they are preferable for long-duration experiments and/or recordings with high R(s). Copyright (c) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nonparametric estimates of drift and diffusion profiles via Fokker-Planck algebra.

Science.gov (United States)

Lund, Steven P; Hubbard, Joseph B; Halter, Michael

2014-11-06

Diffusion processes superimposed upon deterministic motion play a key role in understanding and controlling the transport of matter, energy, momentum, and even information in physics, chemistry, material science, biology, and communications technology. Given functions defining these random and deterministic components, the Fokker-Planck (FP) equation is often used to model these diffusive systems. Many methods exist for estimating the drift and diffusion profiles from one or more identifiable diffusive trajectories; however, when many identical entities diffuse simultaneously, it may not be possible to identify individual trajectories. Here we present a method capable of simultaneously providing nonparametric estimates for both drift and diffusion profiles from evolving density profiles, requiring only the validity of Langevin/FP dynamics. This algebraic FP manipulation provides a flexible and robust framework for estimating stationary drift and diffusion coefficient profiles, is not based on fluctuation theory or solved diffusion equations, and may facilitate predictions for many experimental systems. We illustrate this approach on experimental data obtained from a model lipid bilayer system exhibiting free diffusion and electric field induced drift. The wide range over which this approach provides accurate estimates for drift and diffusion profiles is demonstrated through simulation.

Do detour tasks provide accurate assays of inhibitory control?

Science.gov (United States)

Whiteside, Mark A.; Laker, Philippa R.; Beardsworth, Christine E.

2018-01-01

Transparent Cylinder and Barrier tasks are used to purportedly assess inhibitory control in a variety of animals. However, we suspect that performances on these detour tasks are influenced by non-cognitive traits, which may result in inaccurate assays of inhibitory control. We therefore reared pheasants under standardized conditions and presented each bird with two sets of similar tasks commonly used to measure inhibitory control. We recorded the number of times subjects incorrectly attempted to access a reward through transparent barriers, and their latencies to solve each task. Such measures are commonly used to infer the differential expression of inhibitory control. We found little evidence that their performances were consistent across the two different Putative Inhibitory Control Tasks (PICTs). Improvements in performance across trials showed that pheasants learned the affordances of each specific task. Critically, prior experience of transparent tasks, either Barrier or Cylinder, also improved subsequent inhibitory control performance on a novel task, suggesting that they also learned the general properties of transparent obstacles. Individual measures of persistence, assayed in a third task, were positively related to their frequency of incorrect attempts to solve the transparent inhibitory control tasks. Neophobia, Sex and Body Condition had no influence on individual performance. Contrary to previous studies of primates, pheasants with poor performance on PICTs had a wider dietary breadth assayed using a free-choice task. Our results demonstrate that in systems or taxa where prior experience and differences in development cannot be accounted for, individual differences in performance on commonly used detour-dependent PICTS may reveal more about an individual's prior experience of transparent objects, or their motivation to acquire food, than providing a reliable measure of their inhibitory control. PMID:29593115

On the degrees of freedom of reduced-rank estimators in multivariate regression.

Science.gov (United States)

Mukherjee, A; Chen, K; Wang, N; Zhu, J

We study the effective degrees of freedom of a general class of reduced-rank estimators for multivariate regression in the framework of Stein's unbiased risk estimation. A finite-sample exact unbiased estimator is derived that admits a closed-form expression in terms of the thresholded singular values of the least-squares solution and hence is readily computable. The results continue to hold in the high-dimensional setting where both the predictor and the response dimensions may be larger than the sample size. The derived analytical form facilitates the investigation of theoretical properties and provides new insights into the empirical behaviour of the degrees of freedom. In particular, we examine the differences and connections between the proposed estimator and a commonly-used naive estimator. The use of the proposed estimator leads to efficient and accurate prediction risk estimation and model selection, as demonstrated by simulation studies and a data example.

GPS Estimates of Integrated Precipitable Water Aid Weather Forecasters

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, Angelyn W.; Gutman, Seth I.; Holub, Kirk; Bock, Yehuda; Danielson, David; Laber, Jayme; Small, Ivory

2013-01-01

Global Positioning System (GPS) meteorology provides enhanced density, low-latency (30-min resolution), integrated precipitable water (IPW) estimates to NOAA NWS (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminis tration Nat ional Weather Service) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) to provide improved model and satellite data verification capability and more accurate forecasts of extreme weather such as flooding. An early activity of this project was to increase the number of stations contributing to the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) GPS meteorology observing network in Southern California by about 27 stations. Following this, the Los Angeles/Oxnard and San Diego WFOs began using the enhanced GPS-based IPW measurements provided by ESRL in the 2012 and 2013 monsoon seasons. Forecasters found GPS IPW to be an effective tool in evaluating model performance, and in monitoring monsoon development between weather model runs for improved flood forecasting. GPS stations are multi-purpose, and routine processing for position solutions also yields estimates of tropospheric zenith delays, which can be converted into mm-accuracy PWV (precipitable water vapor) using in situ pressure and temperature measurements, the basis for GPS meteorology. NOAA ESRL has implemented this concept with a nationwide distribution of more than 300 "GPSMet" stations providing IPW estimates at sub-hourly resolution currently used in operational weather models in the U.S.

High-throughput migration modelling for estimating exposure to chemicals in food packaging in screening and prioritization tools.

Science.gov (United States)

Ernstoff, Alexi S; Fantke, Peter; Huang, Lei; Jolliet, Olivier

2017-11-01

Specialty software and simplified models are often used to estimate migration of potentially toxic chemicals from packaging into food. Current models, however, are not suitable for emerging applications in decision-support tools, e.g. in Life Cycle Assessment and risk-based screening and prioritization, which require rapid computation of accurate estimates for diverse scenarios. To fulfil this need, we develop an accurate and rapid (high-throughput) model that estimates the fraction of organic chemicals migrating from polymeric packaging materials into foods. Several hundred step-wise simulations optimised the model coefficients to cover a range of user-defined scenarios (e.g. temperature). The developed model, operationalised in a spreadsheet for future dissemination, nearly instantaneously estimates chemical migration, and has improved performance over commonly used model simplifications. When using measured diffusion coefficients the model accurately predicted (R 2  = 0.9, standard error (S e ) = 0.5) hundreds of empirical data points for various scenarios. Diffusion coefficient modelling, which determines the speed of chemical transfer from package to food, was a major contributor to uncertainty and dramatically decreased model performance (R 2  = 0.4, S e  = 1). In all, this study provides a rapid migration modelling approach to estimate exposure to chemicals in food packaging for emerging screening and prioritization approaches. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Is 10-second electrocardiogram recording enough for accurately estimating heart rate in atrial fibrillation.

Science.gov (United States)

Shuai, Wei; Wang, Xi-Xing; Hong, Kui; Peng, Qiang; Li, Ju-Xiang; Li, Ping; Chen, Jing; Cheng, Xiao-Shu; Su, Hai

2016-07-15

At present, the estimation of rest heart rate (HR) in atrial fibrillation (AF) is obtained by apical auscultation for 1min or on the surface electrocardiogram (ECG) by multiplying the number of RR intervals on the 10second recording by six. But the reasonability of 10second ECG recording is controversial. ECG was continuously recorded at rest for 60s to calculate the real rest HR (HR60s). Meanwhile, the first 10s and 30s ECG recordings were used for calculating HR10s (sixfold) and HR30s (twofold). The differences of HR10s or HR30s with the HR60s were compared. The patients were divided into three sub-groups on the HR60s 100bpm. No significant difference among the mean HR10s, HR30s and HR60s was found. A positive correlation existed between HR10s and HR60s or HR30s and HR60s. Bland-Altman plot showed that the 95% reference limits were high as -11.0 to 16.0bpm for HR10s, but for HR30s these values were only -4.5 to 5.2bpm. Among the three subgroups with HR60s 100bpm, the 95% reference limits with HR60s were -8.9 to 10.6, -10.5 to 14.0 and -11.3 to 21.7bpm for HR10s, but these values were -3.9 to 4.3, -4.1 to 4.6 and -5.3 to 6.7bpm for HR30s. As 10s ECG recording could not provide clinically accepted estimation HR, ECG should be recorded at least for 30s in the patients with AF. It is better to record ECG for 60s when the HR is rapid. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Do Individual Differences and Aging Effects in the Estimation of Geographical Slant Reflect Cognitive or Perceptual Effects?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abigail M. Dean

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Several individual differences including age have been suggested to affect the perception of slant. A cross-sectional study of outdoor hill estimation (N = 106 was analyzed using individual difference measures of age, experiential knowledge, fitness, personality traits, and sex. Of particular note, it was found that for participants who reported any experiential knowledge about slant, estimates decreased (i.e., became more accurate as conscientiousness increased, suggesting that more conscientious individuals were more deliberate about taking their experiential knowledge (rather than perception into account. Effects of fitness were limited to those without experiential knowledge, suggesting that they, too, may be cognitive rather than perceptual. The observed effects of age, which tended to produce lower, more accurate estimates of hill slant, provide more evidence that older adults do not see hills as steeper. The main effect of age was to lower slant estimates; such effects may be due to implicit experiential knowledge acquired over a lifetime. The results indicate the impact of cognitive, rather than perceptual factors on individual differences in slant estimation.

Accurate estimation of dose distributions inside an eye irradiated with 106Ru plaques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brualla, L.; Sauerwein, W.; Sempau, J.; Zaragoza, F.J.; Wittig, A.

2013-01-01

Background: Irradiation of intraocular tumors requires dedicated techniques, such as brachytherapy with 106 Ru plaques. The currently available treatment planning system relies on the assumption that the eye is a homogeneous water sphere and on simplified radiation transport physics. However, accurate dose distributions and their assessment demand better models for both the eye and the physics. Methods: The Monte Carlo code PENELOPE, conveniently adapted to simulate the beta decay of 106 Ru over 106 Rh into 106 Pd, was used to simulate radiation transport based on a computerized tomography scan of a patient's eye. A detailed geometrical description of two plaques (models CCA and CCB) from the manufacturer BEBIG was embedded in the computerized tomography scan. Results: The simulations were firstly validated by comparison with experimental results in a water phantom. Dose maps were computed for three plaque locations on the eyeball. From these maps, isodose curves and cumulative dose-volume histograms in the eye and for the structures at risk were assessed. For example, it was observed that a 4-mm anterior displacement with respect to a posterior placement of a CCA plaque for treating a posterior tumor would reduce from 40 to 0% the volume of the optic disc receiving more than 80 Gy. Such a small difference in anatomical position leads to a change in the dose that is crucial for side effects, especially with respect to visual acuity. The radiation oncologist has to bring these large changes in absorbed dose in the structures at risk to the attention of the surgeon, especially when the plaque has to be positioned close to relevant tissues. Conclusion: The detailed geometry of an eye plaque in computerized and segmented tomography of a realistic patient phantom was simulated accurately. Dose-volume histograms for relevant anatomical structures of the eye and the orbit were obtained with unprecedented accuracy. This represents an important step toward an optimized

A Generic Simulation Approach for the Fast and Accurate Estimation of the Outage Probability of Single Hop and Multihop FSO Links Subject to Generalized Pointing Errors

KAUST Repository

Ben Issaid, Chaouki; Park, Kihong; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

2017-01-01

When assessing the performance of the free space optical (FSO) communication systems, the outage probability encountered is generally very small, and thereby the use of nave Monte Carlo simulations becomes prohibitively expensive. To estimate these rare event probabilities, we propose in this work an importance sampling approach which is based on the exponential twisting technique to offer fast and accurate results. In fact, we consider a variety of turbulence regimes, and we investigate the outage probability of FSO communication systems, under a generalized pointing error model based on the Beckmann distribution, for both single and multihop scenarios. Selected numerical simulations are presented to show the accuracy and the efficiency of our approach compared to naive Monte Carlo.

A Generic Simulation Approach for the Fast and Accurate Estimation of the Outage Probability of Single Hop and Multihop FSO Links Subject to Generalized Pointing Errors

KAUST Repository

Ben Issaid, Chaouki

2017-07-28

When assessing the performance of the free space optical (FSO) communication systems, the outage probability encountered is generally very small, and thereby the use of nave Monte Carlo simulations becomes prohibitively expensive. To estimate these rare event probabilities, we propose in this work an importance sampling approach which is based on the exponential twisting technique to offer fast and accurate results. In fact, we consider a variety of turbulence regimes, and we investigate the outage probability of FSO communication systems, under a generalized pointing error model based on the Beckmann distribution, for both single and multihop scenarios. Selected numerical simulations are presented to show the accuracy and the efficiency of our approach compared to naive Monte Carlo.

Accurate line intensities of methane from first-principles calculations

Science.gov (United States)

Nikitin, Andrei V.; Rey, Michael; Tyuterev, Vladimir G.

2017-10-01

In this work, we report first-principle theoretical predictions of methane spectral line intensities that are competitive with (and complementary to) the best laboratory measurements. A detailed comparison with the most accurate data shows that discrepancies in integrated polyad intensities are in the range of 0.4%-2.3%. This corresponds to estimations of the best available accuracy in laboratory Fourier Transform spectra measurements for this quantity. For relatively isolated strong lines the individual intensity deviations are in the same range. A comparison with the most precise laser measurements of the multiplet intensities in the 2ν3 band gives an agreement within the experimental error margins (about 1%). This is achieved for the first time for five-atomic molecules. In the Supplementary Material we provide the lists of theoretical intensities at 269 K for over 5000 strongest transitions in the range below 6166 cm-1. The advantage of the described method is that this offers a possibility to generate fully assigned exhaustive line lists at various temperature conditions. Extensive calculations up to 12,000 cm-1 including high-T predictions will be made freely available through the TheoReTS information system (http://theorets.univ-reims.fr, http://theorets.tsu.ru) that contains ab initio born line lists and provides a user-friendly graphical interface for a fast simulation of the absorption cross-sections and radiance.

Funnel metadynamics as accurate binding free-energy method

Science.gov (United States)

Limongelli, Vittorio; Bonomi, Massimiliano; Parrinello, Michele

2013-01-01

A detailed description of the events ruling ligand/protein interaction and an accurate estimation of the drug affinity to its target is of great help in speeding drug discovery strategies. We have developed a metadynamics-based approach, named funnel metadynamics, that allows the ligand to enhance the sampling of the target binding sites and its solvated states. This method leads to an efficient characterization of the binding free-energy surface and an accurate calculation of the absolute protein–ligand binding free energy. We illustrate our protocol in two systems, benzamidine/trypsin and SC-558/cyclooxygenase 2. In both cases, the X-ray conformation has been found as the lowest free-energy pose, and the computed protein–ligand binding free energy in good agreement with experiments. Furthermore, funnel metadynamics unveils important information about the binding process, such as the presence of alternative binding modes and the role of waters. The results achieved at an affordable computational cost make funnel metadynamics a valuable method for drug discovery and for dealing with a variety of problems in chemistry, physics, and material science. PMID:23553839

Novel multi-beam radiometers for accurate ocean surveillance

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cappellin, C.; Pontoppidan, K.; Nielsen, P. H.

2014-01-01

Novel antenna architectures for real aperture multi-beam radiometers providing high resolution and high sensitivity for accurate sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean vector wind (OVW) measurements are investigated. On the basis of the radiometer requirements set for future SST/OVW missions...

Benchmarking density-functional-theory calculations of rotational g tensors and magnetizabilities using accurate coupled-cluster calculations.

Science.gov (United States)

Lutnaes, Ola B; Teale, Andrew M; Helgaker, Trygve; Tozer, David J; Ruud, Kenneth; Gauss, Jürgen

2009-10-14

An accurate set of benchmark rotational g tensors and magnetizabilities are calculated using coupled-cluster singles-doubles (CCSD) theory and coupled-cluster single-doubles-perturbative-triples [CCSD(T)] theory, in a variety of basis sets consisting of (rotational) London atomic orbitals. The accuracy of the results obtained is established for the rotational g tensors by careful comparison with experimental data, taking into account zero-point vibrational corrections. After an analysis of the basis sets employed, extrapolation techniques are used to provide estimates of the basis-set-limit quantities, thereby establishing an accurate benchmark data set. The utility of the data set is demonstrated by examining a wide variety of density functionals for the calculation of these properties. None of the density-functional methods are competitive with the CCSD or CCSD(T) methods. The need for a careful consideration of vibrational effects is clearly illustrated. Finally, the pure coupled-cluster results are compared with the results of density-functional calculations constrained to give the same electronic density. The importance of current dependence in exchange-correlation functionals is discussed in light of this comparison.

Reliability of Bluetooth Technology for Travel Time Estimation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Araghi, Bahar Namaki; Olesen, Jonas Hammershøj; Krishnan, Rajesh

2015-01-01

. However, their corresponding impacts on accuracy and reliability of estimated travel time have not been evaluated. In this study, a controlled field experiment is conducted to collect both Bluetooth and GPS data for 1000 trips to be used as the basis for evaluation. Data obtained by GPS logger is used...... to calculate actual travel time, referred to as ground truth, and to geo-code the Bluetooth detection events. In this setting, reliability is defined as the percentage of devices captured per trip during the experiment. It is found that, on average, Bluetooth-enabled devices will be detected 80% of the time......-range antennae detect Bluetooth-enabled devices in a closer location to the sensor, thus providing a more accurate travel time estimate. However, the smaller the size of the detection zone, the lower the penetration rate, which could itself influence the accuracy of estimates. Therefore, there has to be a trade...

Estimation of Road Friction Coefficient in Different Road Conditions Based on Vehicle Braking Dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, You-Qun; Li, Hai-Qing; Lin, Fen; Wang, Jian; Ji, Xue-Wu

2017-07-01

The accurate estimation of road friction coefficient in the active safety control system has become increasingly prominent. Most previous studies on road friction estimation have only used vehicle longitudinal or lateral dynamics and often ignored the load transfer, which tends to cause inaccurate of the actual road friction coefficient. A novel method considering load transfer of front and rear axles is proposed to estimate road friction coefficient based on braking dynamic model of two-wheeled vehicle. Sliding mode control technique is used to build the ideal braking torque controller, which control target is to control the actual wheel slip ratio of front and rear wheels tracking the ideal wheel slip ratio. In order to eliminate the chattering problem of the sliding mode controller, integral switching surface is used to design the sliding mode surface. A second order linear extended state observer is designed to observe road friction coefficient based on wheel speed and braking torque of front and rear wheels. The proposed road friction coefficient estimation schemes are evaluated by simulation in ADAMS/Car. The results show that the estimated values can well agree with the actual values in different road conditions. The observer can estimate road friction coefficient exactly in real-time and resist external disturbance. The proposed research provides a novel method to estimate road friction coefficient with strong robustness and more accurate.

Integrating field plots, lidar, and landsat time series to provide temporally consistent annual estimates of biomass from 1990 to present

Science.gov (United States)

Warren B. Cohen; Hans-Erik Andersen; Sean P. Healey; Gretchen G. Moisen; Todd A. Schroeder; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; Zhiqiang Yang; Robert E. Kennedy; Stephen V. Stehman; Curtis Woodcock; Jim Vogelmann; Zhe Zhu; Chengquan. Huang

2015-01-01

We are developing a system that provides temporally consistent biomass estimates for national greenhouse gas inventory reporting to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Our model-assisted estimation framework relies on remote sensing to scale from plot measurements to lidar strip samples, to Landsat time series-based maps. As a demonstration, new...

Exploring the relationship between sequence similarity and accurate phylogenetic trees.

Science.gov (United States)

Cantarel, Brandi L; Morrison, Hilary G; Pearson, William

2006-11-01

significantly decrease phylogenetic accuracy. In general, although less-divergent sequence families produce more accurate trees, the likelihood of estimating an accurate tree is most dependent on whether radiation in the family was ancient or recent. Accuracy can be improved by combining genes from the same organism when creating species trees or by selecting protein families with the best bootstrap values in comprehensive studies.

Ant-inspired density estimation via random walks.

Science.gov (United States)

Musco, Cameron; Su, Hsin-Hao; Lynch, Nancy A

2017-10-03

Many ant species use distributed population density estimation in applications ranging from quorum sensing, to task allocation, to appraisal of enemy colony strength. It has been shown that ants estimate local population density by tracking encounter rates: The higher the density, the more often the ants bump into each other. We study distributed density estimation from a theoretical perspective. We prove that a group of anonymous agents randomly walking on a grid are able to estimate their density within a small multiplicative error in few steps by measuring their rates of encounter with other agents. Despite dependencies inherent in the fact that nearby agents may collide repeatedly (and, worse, cannot recognize when this happens), our bound nearly matches what would be required to estimate density by independently sampling grid locations. From a biological perspective, our work helps shed light on how ants and other social insects can obtain relatively accurate density estimates via encounter rates. From a technical perspective, our analysis provides tools for understanding complex dependencies in the collision probabilities of multiple random walks. We bound the strength of these dependencies using local mixing properties of the underlying graph. Our results extend beyond the grid to more general graphs, and we discuss applications to size estimation for social networks, density estimation for robot swarms, and random walk-based sampling for sensor networks.

Recommendations for the tuning of rare event probability estimators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Balesdent, Mathieu; Morio, Jérôme; Marzat, Julien

2015-01-01

Being able to accurately estimate rare event probabilities is a challenging issue in order to improve the reliability of complex systems. Several powerful methods such as importance sampling, importance splitting or extreme value theory have been proposed in order to reduce the computational cost and to improve the accuracy of extreme probability estimation. However, the performance of these methods is highly correlated with the choice of tuning parameters, which are very difficult to determine. In order to highlight recommended tunings for such methods, an empirical campaign of automatic tuning on a set of representative test cases is conducted for splitting methods. It allows to provide a reduced set of tuning parameters that may lead to the reliable estimation of rare event probability for various problems. The relevance of the obtained result is assessed on a series of real-world aerospace problems

Accelerated maximum likelihood parameter estimation for stochastic biochemical systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daigle Bernie J

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background A prerequisite for the mechanistic simulation of a biochemical system is detailed knowledge of its kinetic parameters. Despite recent experimental advances, the estimation of unknown parameter values from observed data is still a bottleneck for obtaining accurate simulation results. Many methods exist for parameter estimation in deterministic biochemical systems; methods for discrete stochastic systems are less well developed. Given the probabilistic nature of stochastic biochemical models, a natural approach is to choose parameter values that maximize the probability of the observed data with respect to the unknown parameters, a.k.a. the maximum likelihood parameter estimates (MLEs. MLE computation for all but the simplest models requires the simulation of many system trajectories that are consistent with experimental data. For models with unknown parameters, this presents a computational challenge, as the generation of consistent trajectories can be an extremely rare occurrence. Results We have developed Monte Carlo Expectation-Maximization with Modified Cross-Entropy Method (MCEM2: an accelerated method for calculating MLEs that combines advances in rare event simulation with a computationally efficient version of the Monte Carlo expectation-maximization (MCEM algorithm. Our method requires no prior knowledge regarding parameter values, and it automatically provides a multivariate parameter uncertainty estimate. We applied the method to five stochastic systems of increasing complexity, progressing from an analytically tractable pure-birth model to a computationally demanding model of yeast-polarization. Our results demonstrate that MCEM2 substantially accelerates MLE computation on all tested models when compared to a stand-alone version of MCEM. Additionally, we show how our method identifies parameter values for certain classes of models more accurately than two recently proposed computationally efficient methods

A Model-Driven Approach for Hybrid Power Estimation in Embedded Systems Design

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ben Atitallah Rabie

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract As technology scales for increased circuit density and performance, the management of power consumption in system-on-chip (SoC is becoming critical. Today, having the appropriate electronic system level (ESL tools for power estimation in the design flow is mandatory. The main challenge for the design of such dedicated tools is to achieve a better tradeoff between accuracy and speed. This paper presents a consumption estimation approach allowing taking the consumption criterion into account early in the design flow during the system cosimulation. The originality of this approach is that it allows the power estimation for both white-box intellectual properties (IPs using annotated power models and black-box IPs using standalone power estimators. In order to obtain accurate power estimates, our simulations were performed at the cycle-accurate bit-accurate (CABA level, using SystemC. To make our approach fast and not tedious for users, the simulated architectures, including standalone power estimators, were generated automatically using a model driven engineering (MDE approach. Both annotated power models and standalone power estimators can be used together to estimate the consumption of the same architecture, which makes them complementary. The simulation results showed that the power estimates given by both estimation techniques for a hardware component are very close, with a difference that does not exceed 0.3%. This proves that, even when the IP code is not accessible or not modifiable, our approach allows obtaining quite accurate power estimates that early in the design flow thanks to the automation offered by the MDE approach.

Estimating Canopy Dark Respiration for Crop Models

Science.gov (United States)

Monje Mejia, Oscar Alberto

2014-01-01

Crop production is obtained from accurate estimates of daily carbon gain.Canopy gross photosynthesis (Pgross) can be estimated from biochemical models of photosynthesis using sun and shaded leaf portions and the amount of intercepted photosyntheticallyactive radiation (PAR).In turn, canopy daily net carbon gain can be estimated from canopy daily gross photosynthesis when canopy dark respiration (Rd) is known.

Remaining lifetime modeling using State-of-Health estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Beganovic, Nejra; Söffker, Dirk

2017-08-01

Technical systems and system's components undergo gradual degradation over time. Continuous degradation occurred in system is reflected in decreased system's reliability and unavoidably lead to a system failure. Therefore, continuous evaluation of State-of-Health (SoH) is inevitable to provide at least predefined lifetime of the system defined by manufacturer, or even better, to extend the lifetime given by manufacturer. However, precondition for lifetime extension is accurate estimation of SoH as well as the estimation and prediction of Remaining Useful Lifetime (RUL). For this purpose, lifetime models describing the relation between system/component degradation and consumed lifetime have to be established. In this contribution modeling and selection of suitable lifetime models from database based on current SoH conditions are discussed. Main contribution of this paper is the development of new modeling strategies capable to describe complex relations between measurable system variables, related system degradation, and RUL. Two approaches with accompanying advantages and disadvantages are introduced and compared. Both approaches are capable to model stochastic aging processes of a system by simultaneous adaption of RUL models to current SoH. The first approach requires a priori knowledge about aging processes in the system and accurate estimation of SoH. An estimation of SoH here is conditioned by tracking actual accumulated damage into the system, so that particular model parameters are defined according to a priori known assumptions about system's aging. Prediction accuracy in this case is highly dependent on accurate estimation of SoH but includes high number of degrees of freedom. The second approach in this contribution does not require a priori knowledge about system's aging as particular model parameters are defined in accordance to multi-objective optimization procedure. Prediction accuracy of this model does not highly depend on estimated SoH. This model

Applying a particle filtering technique for canola crop growth stage estimation in Canada

Science.gov (United States)

Sinha, Abhijit; Tan, Weikai; Li, Yifeng; McNairn, Heather; Jiao, Xianfeng; Hosseini, Mehdi

2017-10-01

Accurate crop growth stage estimation is important in precision agriculture as it facilitates improved crop management, pest and disease mitigation and resource planning. Earth observation imagery, specifically Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data, can provide field level growth estimates while covering regional scales. In this paper, RADARSAT-2 quad polarization and TerraSAR-X dual polarization SAR data and ground truth growth stage data are used to model the influence of canola growth stages on SAR imagery extracted parameters. The details of the growth stage modeling work are provided, including a) the development of a new crop growth stage indicator that is continuous and suitable as the state variable in the dynamic estimation procedure; b) a selection procedure for SAR polarimetric parameters that is sensitive to both linear and nonlinear dependency between variables; and c) procedures for compensation of SAR polarimetric parameters for different beam modes. The data was collected over three crop growth seasons in Manitoba, Canada, and the growth model provides the foundation of a novel dynamic filtering framework for real-time estimation of canola growth stages using the multi-sensor and multi-mode SAR data. A description of the dynamic filtering framework that uses particle filter as the estimator is also provided in this paper.

Non-destructive linear model for leaf area estimation in Vernonia ferruginea Less

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

MC. Souza

Full Text Available Leaf area estimation is an important biometrical trait for evaluating leaf development and plant growth in field and pot experiments. We developed a non-destructive model to estimate the leaf area (LA of Vernonia ferruginea using the length (L and width (W leaf dimensions. Different combinations of linear equations were obtained from L, L2, W, W2, LW and L2W2. The linear regressions using the product of LW dimensions were more efficient to estimate the LA of V. ferruginea than models based on a single dimension (L, W, L2 or W2. Therefore, the linear regression “LA=0.463+0.676WL” provided the most accurate estimate of V. ferruginea leaf area. Validation of the selected model showed that the correlation between real measured leaf area and estimated leaf area was very high.

Convenience Sampling of Children Presenting to Hospital-Based Outpatient Clinics to Estimate Childhood Obesity Levels in Local Surroundings.

Science.gov (United States)

Gilliland, Jason; Clark, Andrew F; Kobrzynski, Marta; Filler, Guido

2015-07-01

Childhood obesity is a critical public health matter associated with numerous pediatric comorbidities. Local-level data are required to monitor obesity and to help administer prevention efforts when and where they are most needed. We hypothesized that samples of children visiting hospital clinics could provide representative local population estimates of childhood obesity using data from 2007 to 2013. Such data might provide more accurate, timely, and cost-effective obesity estimates than national surveys. Results revealed that our hospital-based sample could not serve as a population surrogate. Further research is needed to confirm this finding.

A Sum-of-Squares and Semidefinite Programming Approach for Maximum Likelihood DOA Estimation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shu Cai

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Direction of arrival (DOA estimation using a uniform linear array (ULA is a classical problem in array signal processing. In this paper, we focus on DOA estimation based on the maximum likelihood (ML criterion, transform the estimation problem into a novel formulation, named as sum-of-squares (SOS, and then solve it using semidefinite programming (SDP. We first derive the SOS and SDP method for DOA estimation in the scenario of a single source and then extend it under the framework of alternating projection for multiple DOA estimation. The simulations demonstrate that the SOS- and SDP-based algorithms can provide stable and accurate DOA estimation when the number of snapshots is small and the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR is low. Moveover, it has a higher spatial resolution compared to existing methods based on the ML criterion.

Standstill Estimation of Electrical Parameters in Induction Motors Using an Optimal Input Signal

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Børsting, H.; Knudsen, Morten; Vadstrup, P.

1995-01-01

The paper suggest a simple off-line method to obtain accurate estimates of the resistances and inductances of the induction motor.......The paper suggest a simple off-line method to obtain accurate estimates of the resistances and inductances of the induction motor....

SNR Estimation in Linear Systems with Gaussian Matrices

KAUST Repository

Suliman, Mohamed Abdalla Elhag; Alrashdi, Ayed; Ballal, Tarig; Al-Naffouri, Tareq Y.

2017-01-01

This letter proposes a highly accurate algorithm to estimate the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) for a linear system from a single realization of the received signal. We assume that the linear system has a Gaussian matrix with one sided left correlation. The unknown entries of the signal and the noise are assumed to be independent and identically distributed with zero mean and can be drawn from any distribution. We use the ridge regression function of this linear model in company with tools and techniques adapted from random matrix theory to achieve, in closed form, accurate estimation of the SNR without prior statistical knowledge on the signal or the noise. Simulation results show that the proposed method is very accurate.

SNR Estimation in Linear Systems with Gaussian Matrices

KAUST Repository

Suliman, Mohamed Abdalla Elhag

2017-09-27

This letter proposes a highly accurate algorithm to estimate the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) for a linear system from a single realization of the received signal. We assume that the linear system has a Gaussian matrix with one sided left correlation. The unknown entries of the signal and the noise are assumed to be independent and identically distributed with zero mean and can be drawn from any distribution. We use the ridge regression function of this linear model in company with tools and techniques adapted from random matrix theory to achieve, in closed form, accurate estimation of the SNR without prior statistical knowledge on the signal or the noise. Simulation results show that the proposed method is very accurate.

Best-basis estimates of solubility of selected radionuclides in sludges in Hanford single-shell tanks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

HARMSEN, R.W.

1999-01-01

The Hanford Defined Waste (HDW) model (Rev. 4) (Agnew et al. 1997) projects inventories (as of January 1, 1994) of 46 radionuclides in the Hanford Site underground waste storage tanks. To model the distribution of the 46 radionuclides among the 177 tanks, it was necessary for Agnew et al. to estimate the solubility of each radionuclide in the various waste types originally added to the single-shell tanks. Previous editions of the HDW model used single-point solubility estimates. The work described in this report was undertaken to provide more accurate estimates of the solubility of all 46 radionuclides in the various wastes

Best-basis estimates of solubility of selected radionuclides in sludges in Hanford single-shell tanks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

HARMSEN, R.W.

1999-02-24

The Hanford Defined Waste (HDW) model (Rev. 4) (Agnew et al. 1997) projects inventories (as of January 1, 1994) of 46 radionuclides in the Hanford Site underground waste storage tanks. To model the distribution of the 46 radionuclides among the 177 tanks, it was necessary for Agnew et al. to estimate the solubility of each radionuclide in the various waste types originally added to the single-shell tanks. Previous editions of the HDW model used single-point solubility estimates. The work described in this report was undertaken to provide more accurate estimates of the solubility of all 46 radionuclides in the various wastes.

MMSE-based algorithm for joint signal detection, channel and noise variance estimation for OFDM systems

CERN Document Server

Savaux, Vincent

2014-01-01

This book presents an algorithm for the detection of an orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) signal in a cognitive radio context by means of a joint and iterative channel and noise estimation technique. Based on the minimum mean square criterion, it performs an accurate detection of a user in a frequency band, by achieving a quasi-optimal channel and noise variance estimation if the signal is present, and by estimating the noise level in the band if the signal is absent. Organized into three chapters, the first chapter provides the background against which the system model is pr

Evaluation of a segment-based LANDSAT full-frame approach to corp area estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Bauer, M. E. (Principal Investigator); Hixson, M. M.; Davis, S. M.

1981-01-01

As the registration of LANDSAT full frames enters the realm of current technology, sampling methods should be examined which utilize other than the segment data used for LACIE. The effect of separating the functions of sampling for training and sampling for area estimation. The frame selected for analysis was acquired over north central Iowa on August 9, 1978. A stratification of he full-frame was defined. Training data came from segments within the frame. Two classification and estimation procedures were compared: statistics developed on one segment were used to classify that segment, and pooled statistics from the segments were used to classify a systematic sample of pixels. Comparisons to USDA/ESCS estimates illustrate that the full-frame sampling approach can provide accurate and precise area estimates.

Simple and Accurate Analytical Solutions of the Electrostatically Actuated Curled Beam Problem

KAUST Repository

Younis, Mohammad I.

2014-08-17

We present analytical solutions of the electrostatically actuated initially deformed cantilever beam problem. We use a continuous Euler-Bernoulli beam model combined with a single-mode Galerkin approximation. We derive simple analytical expressions for two commonly observed deformed beams configurations: the curled and tilted configurations. The derived analytical formulas are validated by comparing their results to experimental data in the literature and numerical results of a multi-mode reduced order model. The derived expressions do not involve any complicated integrals or complex terms and can be conveniently used by designers for quick, yet accurate, estimations. The formulas are found to yield accurate results for most commonly encountered microbeams of initial tip deflections of few microns. For largely deformed beams, we found that these formulas yield less accurate results due to the limitations of the single-mode approximations they are based on. In such cases, multi-mode reduced order models need to be utilized.

Parkinsonian rest tremor can be detected accurately based on neuronal oscillations recorded from the subthalamic nucleus.

Science.gov (United States)

Hirschmann, J; Schoffelen, J M; Schnitzler, A; van Gerven, M A J

2017-10-01

To investigate the possibility of tremor detection based on deep brain activity. We re-analyzed recordings of local field potentials (LFPs) from the subthalamic nucleus in 10 PD patients (12 body sides) with spontaneously fluctuating rest tremor. Power in several frequency bands was estimated and used as input to Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) which classified short data segments as either tremor-free rest or rest tremor. HMMs were compared to direct threshold application to individual power features. Applying a threshold directly to band-limited power was insufficient for tremor detection (mean area under the curve [AUC] of receiver operating characteristic: 0.64, STD: 0.19). Multi-feature HMMs, in contrast, allowed for accurate detection (mean AUC: 0.82, STD: 0.15), using four power features obtained from a single contact pair. Within-patient training yielded better accuracy than across-patient training (0.84vs. 0.78, p=0.03), yet tremor could often be detected accurately with either approach. High frequency oscillations (>200Hz) were the best performing individual feature. LFP-based markers of tremor are robust enough to allow for accurate tremor detection in short data segments, provided that appropriate statistical models are used. LFP-based markers of tremor could be useful control signals for closed-loop deep brain stimulation. Copyright © 2017 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Safeprops: A Software for Fast and Reliable Estimation of Safety and Environmental Properties for Organic Compounds

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jones, Mark Nicholas; Frutiger, Jerome; Abildskov, Jens

We present a new software tool called SAFEPROPS which is able to estimate major safety-related and environmental properties for organic compounds. SAFEPROPS provides accurate, reliable and fast predictions using the Marrero-Gani group contribution (MG-GC) method. It is implemented using Python...... as the main programming language, while the necessary parameters together with their correlation matrix are obtained from a SQLite database which has been populated using off-line parameter and error estimation routines (Eq. 3-8)....

Inter-Rater Reliability of Provider Interpretations of Irritable Bowel Syndrome Food and Symptom Journals.

Science.gov (United States)

Zia, Jasmine; Chung, Chia-Fang; Xu, Kaiyuan; Dong, Yi; Schenk, Jeanette M; Cain, Kevin; Munson, Sean; Heitkemper, Margaret M

2017-11-04

There are currently no standardized methods for identifying trigger food(s) from irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) food and symptom journals. The primary aim of this study was to assess the inter-rater reliability of providers' interpretations of IBS journals. A second aim was to describe whether these interpretations varied for each patient. Eight providers reviewed 17 IBS journals and rated how likely key food groups (fermentable oligo-di-monosaccharides and polyols, high-calorie, gluten, caffeine, high-fiber) were to trigger IBS symptoms for each patient. Agreement of trigger food ratings was calculated using Krippendorff's α-reliability estimate. Providers were also asked to write down recommendations they would give to each patient. Estimates of agreement of trigger food likelihood ratings were poor (average α = 0.07). Most providers gave similar trigger food likelihood ratings for over half the food groups. Four providers gave the exact same written recommendation(s) (range 3-7) to over half the patients. Inter-rater reliability of provider interpretations of IBS food and symptom journals was poor. Providers favored certain trigger food likelihood ratings and written recommendations. This supports the need for a more standardized method for interpreting these journals and/or more rigorous techniques to accurately identify personalized IBS food triggers.

Using Landsat Vegetation Indices to Estimate Impervious Surface Fractions for European Cities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Fensholt, Rasmus; Drews, Martin

2015-01-01

and applicability of vegetation indices (VI), from Landsat imagery, to estimate IS fractions for European cities. The accuracy of three different measures of vegetation cover is examined for eight urban areas at different locations in Europe. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Soil Adjusted...... Vegetation Index (SAVI) are converted to IS fractions using a regression modelling approach. Also, NDVI is used to estimate fractional vegetation cover (FR), and consequently IS fractions. All three indices provide fairly accurate estimates (MAEs ≈ 10%, MBE’s ... the potential for developing and applying a single regression model to estimate IS fractions for numerous urban areas without reducing the accuracy considerably. Our findings indicate that the models can be applied broadly for multiple urban areas, and that the accuracy is reduced only marginally by applying...

Estimating extreme losses for the Florida Public Hurricane Model—part II

Science.gov (United States)

Gulati, Sneh; George, Florence; Hamid, Shahid

2018-02-01

Rising global temperatures are leading to an increase in the number of extreme events and losses (http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators/). Accurate estimation of these extreme losses with the intention of protecting themselves against them is critical to insurance companies. In a previous paper, Gulati et al. (2014) discussed probable maximum loss (PML) estimation for the Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model (FPHLM) using parametric and nonparametric methods. In this paper, we investigate the use of semi-parametric methods to do the same. Detailed analysis of the data shows that the annual losses from FPHLM do not tend to be very heavy tailed, and therefore, neither the popular Hill's method nor the moment's estimator work well. However, Pickand's estimator with threshold around the 84th percentile provides a good fit for the extreme quantiles for the losses.

Fast and accurate phylogeny reconstruction using filtered spaced-word matches

Science.gov (United States)

Sohrabi-Jahromi, Salma; Morgenstern, Burkhard

2017-01-01

Abstract Motivation: Word-based or ‘alignment-free’ algorithms are increasingly used for phylogeny reconstruction and genome comparison, since they are much faster than traditional approaches that are based on full sequence alignments. Existing alignment-free programs, however, are less accurate than alignment-based methods. Results: We propose Filtered Spaced Word Matches (FSWM), a fast alignment-free approach to estimate phylogenetic distances between large genomic sequences. For a pre-defined binary pattern of match and don’t-care positions, FSWM rapidly identifies spaced word-matches between input sequences, i.e. gap-free local alignments with matching nucleotides at the match positions and with mismatches allowed at the don’t-care positions. We then estimate the number of nucleotide substitutions per site by considering the nucleotides aligned at the don’t-care positions of the identified spaced-word matches. To reduce the noise from spurious random matches, we use a filtering procedure where we discard all spaced-word matches for which the overall similarity between the aligned segments is below a threshold. We show that our approach can accurately estimate substitution frequencies even for distantly related sequences that cannot be analyzed with existing alignment-free methods; phylogenetic trees constructed with FSWM distances are of high quality. A program run on a pair of eukaryotic genomes of a few hundred Mb each takes a few minutes. Availability and Implementation: The program source code for FSWM including a documentation, as well as the software that we used to generate artificial genome sequences are freely available at http://fswm.gobics.de/ Contact: chris.leimeister@stud.uni-goettingen.de Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:28073754

Respiratory rate estimation from the built-in cameras of smartphones and tablets.

Science.gov (United States)

Nam, Yunyoung; Lee, Jinseok; Chon, Ki H

2014-04-01

. Overall, the VFCDM method provided the best results for accuracy (smaller median error), consistency (smaller interquartile range of the median value), and computational efficiency (less than 0.5 s on 1 min of data using a MATLAB implementation) to extract breathing rates that varied from 12 to 36 breaths/min. The AR method provided the least accurate respiratory rate estimation among the three methods. This work illustrates that both heart rates and normal breathing rates can be accurately derived from a video signal obtained from smartphones, an MP3 player and tablets with or without a flashlight.

Illumination estimation via thin-plate spline interpolation.

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Lilong; Xiong, Weihua; Funt, Brian

2011-05-01

Thin-plate spline interpolation is used to interpolate the chromaticity of the color of the incident scene illumination across a training set of images. Given the image of a scene under unknown illumination, the chromaticity of the scene illumination can be found from the interpolated function. The resulting illumination-estimation method can be used to provide color constancy under changing illumination conditions and automatic white balancing for digital cameras. A thin-plate spline interpolates over a nonuniformly sampled input space, which in this case is a training set of image thumbnails and associated illumination chromaticities. To reduce the size of the training set, incremental k medians are applied. Tests on real images demonstrate that the thin-plate spline method can estimate the color of the incident illumination quite accurately, and the proposed training set pruning significantly decreases the computation.

Development of the Japanese version of an information aid to provide accurate information on prognosis to patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer receiving chemotherapy: a pilot study.

Science.gov (United States)

Nakano, Kikuo; Kitahara, Yoshihiro; Mito, Mineyo; Seno, Misato; Sunada, Shoji

2018-02-27

Without explicit prognostic information, patients may overestimate their life expectancy and make poor choices at the end of life. We sought to design the Japanese version of an information aid (IA) to provide accurate information on prognosis to patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and to assess the effects of the IA on hope, psychosocial status, and perception of curability. We developed the Japanese version of an IA, which provided information on survival and cure rates as well as numerical survival estimates for patients with metastatic NSCLC receiving first-line chemotherapy. We then assessed the pre- and post-intervention effects of the IA on hope, anxiety, and perception of curability and treatment benefits. A total of 20 (95%) of 21 patients (65% male; median age, 72 years) completed the IA pilot test. Based on the results, scores on the Distress and Impact Thermometer screening tool for adjustment disorders and major depression tended to decrease (from 4.5 to 2.5; P = 0.204), whereas no significant changes were seen in scores for anxiety on the Japanese version of the Support Team Assessment Schedule or in scores on the Hearth Hope Index (from 41.9 to 41.5; p = 0.204). The majority of the patients (16/20, 80%) had high expectations regarding the curative effects of chemotherapy. The Japanese version of the IA appeared to help patients with NSCLC maintain hope, and did not increase their anxiety when they were given explicit prognostic information; however, the IA did not appear to help such patients understand the goal of chemotherapy. Further research is needed to test the findings in a larger sample and measure the outcomes of explicit prognostic information on hope, psychological status, and perception of curability.

New developments in state estimation for Nonlinear Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nørgård, Peter Magnus; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad; Ravn, Ole

2000-01-01

Based on an interpolation formula, accurate state estimators for nonlinear systems can be derived. The estimators do not require derivative information which makes them simple to implement.; State estimators for nonlinear systems are derived based on polynomial approximations obtained with a mult......-known estimators, such as the extended Kalman filter (EKF) and its higher-order relatives, in most practical applications....

Effect of Smart Meter Measurements Data On Distribution State Estimation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pokhrel, Basanta Raj; Nainar, Karthikeyan; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

2018-01-01

Smart distribution grids with renewable energy based generators and demand response resources (DRR) requires accurate state estimators for real time control. Distribution grid state estimators are normally based on accumulated smart meter measurements. However, increase of measurements in the phy......Smart distribution grids with renewable energy based generators and demand response resources (DRR) requires accurate state estimators for real time control. Distribution grid state estimators are normally based on accumulated smart meter measurements. However, increase of measurements...... in the physical grid can enforce significant stress not only on the communication infrastructure but also in the control algorithms. This paper aims to propose a methodology to analyze needed real time smart meter data from low voltage distribution grids and their applicability in distribution state estimation...

Simultaneous head tissue conductivity and EEG source location estimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Akalin Acar, Zeynep; Acar, Can E; Makeig, Scott

2016-01-01

Accurate electroencephalographic (EEG) source localization requires an electrical head model incorporating accurate geometries and conductivity values for the major head tissues. While consistent conductivity values have been reported for scalp, brain, and cerebrospinal fluid, measured brain-to-skull conductivity ratio (BSCR) estimates have varied between 8 and 80, likely reflecting both inter-subject and measurement method differences. In simulations, mis-estimation of skull conductivity can produce source localization errors as large as 3cm. Here, we describe an iterative gradient-based approach to Simultaneous tissue Conductivity And source Location Estimation (SCALE). The scalp projection maps used by SCALE are obtained from near-dipolar effective EEG sources found by adequate independent component analysis (ICA) decomposition of sufficient high-density EEG data. We applied SCALE to simulated scalp projections of 15cm(2)-scale cortical patch sources in an MR image-based electrical head model with simulated BSCR of 30. Initialized either with a BSCR of 80 or 20, SCALE estimated BSCR as 32.6. In Adaptive Mixture ICA (AMICA) decompositions of (45-min, 128-channel) EEG data from two young adults we identified sets of 13 independent components having near-dipolar scalp maps compatible with a single cortical source patch. Again initialized with either BSCR 80 or 25, SCALE gave BSCR estimates of 34 and 54 for the two subjects respectively. The ability to accurately estimate skull conductivity non-invasively from any well-recorded EEG data in combination with a stable and non-invasively acquired MR imaging-derived electrical head model could remove a critical barrier to using EEG as a sub-cm(2)-scale accurate 3-D functional cortical imaging modality. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Efficient statistically accurate algorithms for the Fokker-Planck equation in large dimensions

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Nan; Majda, Andrew J.

2018-02-01

Solving the Fokker-Planck equation for high-dimensional complex turbulent dynamical systems is an important and practical issue. However, most traditional methods suffer from the curse of dimensionality and have difficulties in capturing the fat tailed highly intermittent probability density functions (PDFs) of complex systems in turbulence, neuroscience and excitable media. In this article, efficient statistically accurate algorithms are developed for solving both the transient and the equilibrium solutions of Fokker-Planck equations associated with high-dimensional nonlinear turbulent dynamical systems with conditional Gaussian structures. The algorithms involve a hybrid strategy that requires only a small number of ensembles. Here, a conditional Gaussian mixture in a high-dimensional subspace via an extremely efficient parametric method is combined with a judicious non-parametric Gaussian kernel density estimation in the remaining low-dimensional subspace. Particularly, the parametric method provides closed analytical formulae for determining the conditional Gaussian distributions in the high-dimensional subspace and is therefore computationally efficient and accurate. The full non-Gaussian PDF of the system is then given by a Gaussian mixture. Different from traditional particle methods, each conditional Gaussian distribution here covers a significant portion of the high-dimensional PDF. Therefore a small number of ensembles is sufficient to recover the full PDF, which overcomes the curse of dimensionality. Notably, the mixture distribution has significant skill in capturing the transient behavior with fat tails of the high-dimensional non-Gaussian PDFs, and this facilitates the algorithms in accurately describing the intermittency and extreme events in complex turbulent systems. It is shown in a stringent set of test problems that the method only requires an order of O (100) ensembles to successfully recover the highly non-Gaussian transient PDFs in up to 6

Estimation of channel impulse response and FPGA simulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

YU Longjie

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Wideband code division multiple access (WCDMA is a 3G wireless communication network.The common pilot channel in downlink of WCDMA provides an effective method to estimate the channel impulse response.In this paper,universal software radio peripheral (USRP is utilized to sample and process WCDMA signal which is emitted by China Unicom base station.Firstly,the received signal is pre-processed with filtering and down-sampling.Secondly,fast algorithm of WCDMA cell search is fulfilled.Thirdly,frequency shift caused by USRP′s crystal oscillator is checked and compensated.Eventually,channel impulse response is estimated.In this paper,MATLAB is used to describe the above algorithm and field programmable gate array (FPGA is used to simulate algorithm.In the process of simulation,pipeline and IP core multiplexing are introduced.In the case of 32 MHz clock frequency,FPGA simulation time is 80.861 ms.Simulation results show that FPGA is able to estimate the channel impulse response quickly and accurately with less hardware resources.

A model for estimating the minimum number of offspring to sample in studies of reproductive success.

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, Joseph H; Ward, Eric J; Carlson, Stephanie M

2011-01-01

Molecular parentage permits studies of selection and evolution in fecund species with cryptic mating systems, such as fish, amphibians, and insects. However, there exists no method for estimating the number of offspring that must be assigned parentage to achieve robust estimates of reproductive success when only a fraction of offspring can be sampled. We constructed a 2-stage model that first estimated the mean (μ) and variance (v) in reproductive success from published studies on salmonid fishes and then sampled offspring from reproductive success distributions simulated from the μ and v estimates. Results provided strong support for modeling salmonid reproductive success via the negative binomial distribution and suggested that few offspring samples are needed to reject the null hypothesis of uniform offspring production. However, the sampled reproductive success distributions deviated significantly (χ(2) goodness-of-fit test p value reproductive success distribution at rates often >0.05 and as high as 0.24, even when hundreds of offspring were assigned parentage. In general, reproductive success patterns were less accurate when offspring were sampled from cohorts with larger numbers of parents and greater variance in reproductive success. Our model can be reparameterized with data from other species and will aid researchers in planning reproductive success studies by providing explicit sampling targets required to accurately assess reproductive success.

Tropical forest plantation biomass estimation using RADARSAT-SAR and TM data of south china

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Chenli; Niu, Zheng; Gu, Xiaoping; Guo, Zhixing; Cong, Pifu

2005-10-01

Forest biomass is one of the most important parameters for global carbon stock model yet can only be estimated with great uncertainties. Remote sensing, especially SAR data can offers the possibility of providing relatively accurate forest biomass estimations at a lower cost than inventory in study tropical forest. The goal of this research was to compare the sensitivity of forest biomass to Landsat TM and RADARSAT-SAR data and to assess the efficiency of NDVI, EVI and other vegetation indices in study forest biomass based on the field survey date and GIS in south china. Based on vegetation indices and factor analysis, multiple regression and neural networks were developed for biomass estimation for each species of the plantation. For each species, the better relationships between the biomass predicted and that measured from field survey was obtained with a neural network developed for the species. The relationship between predicted and measured biomass derived from vegetation indices differed between species. This study concludes that single band and many vegetation indices are weakly correlated with selected forest biomass. RADARSAT-SAR Backscatter coefficient has a relatively good logarithmic correlation with forest biomass, but neither TM spectral bands nor vegetation indices alone are sufficient to establish an efficient model for biomass estimation due to the saturation of bands and vegetation indices, multiple regression models that consist of spectral and environment variables improve biomass estimation performance. Comparing with TM, a relatively well estimation result can be achieved by RADARSAT-SAR, but all had limitations in tropical forest biomass estimation. The estimation results obtained are not accurate enough for forest management purposes at the forest stand level. However, the approximate volume estimates derived by the method can be useful in areas where no other forest information is available. Therefore, this paper provides a better

Fast and accurate computation of projected two-point functions

Science.gov (United States)

Grasshorn Gebhardt, Henry S.; Jeong, Donghui

2018-01-01

We present the two-point function from the fast and accurate spherical Bessel transformation (2-FAST) algorithm1Our code is available at https://github.com/hsgg/twoFAST. for a fast and accurate computation of integrals involving one or two spherical Bessel functions. These types of integrals occur when projecting the galaxy power spectrum P (k ) onto the configuration space, ξℓν(r ), or spherical harmonic space, Cℓ(χ ,χ'). First, we employ the FFTLog transformation of the power spectrum to divide the calculation into P (k )-dependent coefficients and P (k )-independent integrations of basis functions multiplied by spherical Bessel functions. We find analytical expressions for the latter integrals in terms of special functions, for which recursion provides a fast and accurate evaluation. The algorithm, therefore, circumvents direct integration of highly oscillating spherical Bessel functions.

Characterization of particulate emissions from Australian open-cut coal mines: Toward improved emission estimates.

Science.gov (United States)

Richardson, Claire; Rutherford, Shannon; Agranovski, Igor

2018-06-01

Given the significance of mining as a source of particulates, accurate characterization of emissions is important for the development of appropriate emission estimation techniques for use in modeling predictions and to inform regulatory decisions. The currently available emission estimation methods for Australian open-cut coal mines relate primarily to total suspended particulates and PM 10 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter available relating to the PM 2.5 (currently available emission estimation techniques, this paper presents results of sampling completed at three open-cut coal mines in Australia. The monitoring data demonstrate that the particulate size fraction varies for different mining activities, and that the region in which the mine is located influences the characteristics of the particulates emitted to the atmosphere. The proportion of fine particulates in the sample increased with distance from the source, with the coarse fraction being a more significant proportion of total suspended particulates close to the source of emissions. In terms of particulate composition, the results demonstrate that the particulate emissions are predominantly sourced from naturally occurring geological material, and coal comprises less than 13% of the overall emissions. The size fractionation exhibited by the sampling data sets is similar to that adopted in current Australian emission estimation methods but differs from the size fractionation presented in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency methodology. Development of region-specific emission estimation techniques for PM 10 and PM 2.5 from open-cut coal mines is necessary to allow accurate prediction of particulate emissions to inform regulatory decisions and for use in modeling predictions. Development of region-specific emission estimation techniques for PM 10 and PM 2.5 from open-cut coal mines is necessary to allow accurate prediction of particulate emissions to inform regulatory decisions and for

Inter-Rater Reliability of Provider Interpretations of Irritable Bowel Syndrome Food and Symptom Journals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jasmine Zia

2017-11-01

Full Text Available There are currently no standardized methods for identifying trigger food(s from irritable bowel syndrome (IBS food and symptom journals. The primary aim of this study was to assess the inter-rater reliability of providers’ interpretations of IBS journals. A second aim was to describe whether these interpretations varied for each patient. Eight providers reviewed 17 IBS journals and rated how likely key food groups (fermentable oligo-di-monosaccharides and polyols, high-calorie, gluten, caffeine, high-fiber were to trigger IBS symptoms for each patient. Agreement of trigger food ratings was calculated using Krippendorff’s α-reliability estimate. Providers were also asked to write down recommendations they would give to each patient. Estimates of agreement of trigger food likelihood ratings were poor (average α = 0.07. Most providers gave similar trigger food likelihood ratings for over half the food groups. Four providers gave the exact same written recommendation(s (range 3–7 to over half the patients. Inter-rater reliability of provider interpretations of IBS food and symptom journals was poor. Providers favored certain trigger food likelihood ratings and written recommendations. This supports the need for a more standardized method for interpreting these journals and/or more rigorous techniques to accurately identify personalized IBS food triggers.

Establishing Accurate and Sustainable Geospatial Reference Layers in Developing Countries

Science.gov (United States)

Seaman, V. Y.

2017-12-01

Accurate geospatial reference layers (settlement names & locations, administrative boundaries, and population) are not readily available for most developing countries. This critical information gap makes it challenging for governments to efficiently plan, allocate resources, and provide basic services. It also hampers international agencies' response to natural disasters, humanitarian crises, and other emergencies. The current work involves a recent successful effort, led by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Government of Nigeria, to obtain such data. The data collection began in 2013, with local teams collecting names, coordinates, and administrative attributes for over 100,000 settlements using ODK-enabled smartphones. A settlement feature layer extracted from satellite imagery was used to ensure all settlements were included. Administrative boundaries (Ward, LGA) were created using the settlement attributes. These "new" boundary layers were much more accurate than existing shapefiles used by the government and international organizations. The resulting data sets helped Nigeria eradicate polio from all areas except in the extreme northeast, where security issues limited access and vaccination activities. In addition to the settlement and boundary layers, a GIS-based population model was developed, in partnership with Oak Ridge National Laboratories and Flowminder), that used the extracted settlement areas and characteristics, along with targeted microcensus data. This model provides population and demographics estimates independent of census or other administrative data, at a resolution of 90 meters. These robust geospatial data layers found many other uses, including establishing catchment area settlements and populations for health facilities, validating denominators for population-based surveys, and applications across a variety of government sectors. Based on the success of the Nigeria effort, a partnership between DfID and the Bill & Melinda Gates

Formative evaluation of a mobile liquid portion size estimation interface for people with varying literacy skills.

Science.gov (United States)

Chaudry, Beenish Moalla; Connelly, Kay; Siek, Katie A; Welch, Janet L

2013-12-01

Chronically ill people, especially those with low literacy skills, often have difficulty estimating portion sizes of liquids to help them stay within their recommended fluid limits. There is a plethora of mobile applications that can help people monitor their nutritional intake but unfortunately these applications require the user to have high literacy and numeracy skills for portion size recording. In this paper, we present two studies in which the low- and the high-fidelity versions of a portion size estimation interface, designed using the cognitive strategies adults employ for portion size estimation during diet recall studies, was evaluated by a chronically ill population with varying literacy skills. The low fidelity interface was evaluated by ten patients who were all able to accurately estimate portion sizes of various liquids with the interface. Eighteen participants did an in situ evaluation of the high-fidelity version incorporated in a diet and fluid monitoring mobile application for 6 weeks. Although the accuracy of the estimation cannot be confirmed in the second study but the participants who actively interacted with the interface showed better health outcomes by the end of the study. Based on these findings, we provide recommendations for designing the next iteration of an accurate and low literacy-accessible liquid portion size estimation mobile interface.

Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate Correlates Poorly with Four-Hour Creatinine Clearance in Critically Ill Patients with Acute Kidney Injury

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christopher J. Kirwan

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction. RIFLE and AKIN provide a standardised classification of acute kidney injury (AKI, but their categorical rather than continuous nature restricts their use to a research tool. A more accurate real-time description of renal function in AKI is needed, and some published data suggest that equations based on serum creatinine that estimate glomerular filtration rate (eGFR can provide this. In addition, incorporating serum cystatin C concentration into estimates of GFR may improve their accuracy, but no eGFR equations are validated in critically ill patients with AKI. Aim. This study tests whether creatinine or cystatin-C-based eGFR equations, used in patients with CKD, offer an accurate representation of 4-hour creatinine clearance (4CrCl in critically ill patients with AKI. Methods. Fifty-one critically ill patients with AKI were recruited. Thirty-seven met inclusion criteria, and the performance of eGFR equations was compared to 4CrCl. Results. eGFR equations were better than creatinine alone at predicting 4CrCl. Adding cystatin C to estimates did not improve the bias or add accuracy. The MDRD 7 eGFR had the best combination of correlation, bias, percentage error and accuracy. None were near acceptable standards quoted in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD. Conclusions. eGFR equations are not sufficiently accurate for use in critically ill patients with AKI. Incorporating serum cystatin C does not improve estimates. eGFR should not be used to describe renal function in patients with AKI. Standards of accuracy for validating eGFR need to be set.

Survival Estimates for the Passage of Juvenile Chinook Salmon through Snake River Dams and Reservoirs, 1993 Annual Report.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Iwamoto, Robert N.; Sandford, Benjamin P.; McIntyre, Kenneth W.

1994-04-01

A pilot study was conducted to estimate survival of hatchery-reared yearling chinook salmon through dams and reservoirs on the Snake River. The goals of the study were to: (1) field test and evaluate the Single-Release, Modified-Single-Release, and Paired-Release Models for the estimation of survival probabilities through sections of a river and hydroelectric projects; (2) identify operational and logistical constraints to the execution of these models; and (3) determine the usefulness of the models in providing estimates of survival probabilities. Field testing indicated that the numbers of hatchery-reared yearling chinook salmon needed for accurate survival estimates could be collected at different areas with available gear and methods. For the primary evaluation, seven replicates of 830 to 1,442 hatchery-reared yearling chinook salmon were purse-seined from Lower Granite Reservoir, PIT tagged, and released near Nisqually John boat landing (River Kilometer 726). Secondary releases of PIT-tagged smolts were made at Lower Granite Dam to estimate survival of fish passing through turbines and after detection in the bypass system. Similar secondary releases were made at Little Goose Dam, but with additional releases through the spillway. Based on the success of the 1993 pilot study, the authors believe that the Single-Release and Paired-Release Models will provide accurate estimates of juvenile salmonid passage survival for individual river sections, reservoirs, and hydroelectric projects in the Columbia and Snake Rivers.

Survival estimates for the passage of juvenile chinook salmon through Snake River dams and reservoirs. Annual report 1993

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iwamoto, R.N.; Muir, W.D.; Sandford, B.P.; McIntyre, K.W.; Frost, D.A.; Williams, J.G.; Smith, S.G.; Skalski, J.R.

1994-04-01

A pilot study was conducted to estimate survival of hatchery-reared yearling chinook salmon through dams and reservoirs on the Snake River. The goals of the study were to: (1) field test and evaluate the Single-Release, Modified-Single-Release, and Paired-Release Models for the estimation of survival probabilities through sections of a river and hydroelectric projects; (2) identify operational and logistical constraints to the execution of these models; and (3) determine the usefulness of the models in providing estimates of survival probabilities. Field testing indicated that the numbers of hatchery-reared yearling chinook salmon needed for accurate survival estimates could be collected at different areas with available gear and methods. For the primary evaluation, seven replicates of 830 to 1,442 hatchery-reared yearling chinook salmon were purse-seined from Lower Granite Reservoir, PIT tagged, and released near Nisqually John boat landing (River Kilometer 726). Secondary releases of PIT-tagged smolts were made at Lower Granite Dam to estimate survival of fish passing through turbines and after detection in the bypass system. Similar secondary releases were made at Little Goose Dam, but with additional releases through the spillway. Based on the success of the 1993 pilot study, the authors believe that the Single-Release and Paired-Release Models will provide accurate estimates of juvenile salmonid passage survival for individual river sections, reservoirs, and hydroelectric projects in the Columbia and Snake Rivers

Borderline features are associated with inaccurate trait self-estimations.

Science.gov (United States)

Morey, Leslie C

2014-01-01

Many treatments for Borderline Personality Disorder (BPD) are based upon the hypothesis that gross distortion in perceptions and attributions related to self and others represent a core mechanism for the enduring difficulties displayed by such patients. However, available experimental evidence of such distortions provides equivocal results, with some studies suggesting that BPD is related to inaccuracy in such perceptions and others indicative of enhanced accuracy in some judgments. The current study uses a novel methodology to explore whether individuals with BPD features are less accurate in estimating their levels of universal personality characteristics as compared to community norms. One hundred and four students received course instruction on the Five Factor Model of personality, and then were asked to estimate their levels of these five traits relative to community norms. They then completed the NEO-Five Factor Inventory and the Personality Assessment Inventory-Borderline Features scale (PAI-BOR). Accuracy of estimates was calculated by computing squared differences between self-estimated trait levels and norm-referenced standardized scores in the NEO-FFI. There was a moderately strong relationship between PAI-BOR score and inaccuracy of trait level estimates. In particular, high BOR individuals dramatically overestimated their levels of Agreeableness and Conscientiousness, estimating themselves to be slightly above average on each of these characteristics but actually scoring well below average on both. The accuracy of estimates of levels of Neuroticism were unrelated to BOR scores, despite the fact that BOR scores were highly correlated with Neuroticism. These findings support the hypothesis that a key feature of BPD involves marked perceptual distortions of various aspects of self in relationship to others. However, the results also indicate that this is not a global perceptual deficit, as high BOR scorers accurately estimated that their emotional

Improved localisation of neoclassical tearing modes by combining multiple diagnostic estimates

Science.gov (United States)

Rapson, C. J.; Fischer, R.; Giannone, L.; Maraschek, M.; Reich, M.; Treutterer, W.; The ASDEX Upgrade Team

2017-07-01

Neoclassical tearing modes (NTMs) strongly degrade confinement in tokamaks, and are a leading cause of disruptions. They can be stabilised by targeted electron cyclotron current drive (ECCD), however the effectiveness of ECCD depends strongly on the accuracy or misalignment between ECCD and the NTM. The first step to ensure minimal misalignment is a good estimate of the NTM location. In previous NTM control experiments, three methods have been used independently to estimate the NTM location: the magnetic equilibrium, correlation between magnetic and spatially-resolved temperature fluctuations, and the amplitude response of the NTM to nearby ECCD. This submission describes an algorithm which has been designed to fuse these three estimates into one, taking into account many of the characteristics of each diagnostic. Although the method diverges from standard data fusion methods, results from simulation and experiment confirm that the algorithm achieves its stated goal of providing an estimate that is more reliable and accurate than any of the individual estimates.

Potential for improvement in estimation of solar diffuse irradiance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Muneer, T.; Munawwar, S.

2006-01-01

Most of the meteorological stations around the world measure global irradiation and provide information on weather elements. Diffuse radiation measurement, however, is unavailable for many of those sites. This accentuates the need to estimate it whereupon it can be used for the simulation of solar applications. This paper explores the role of synoptic information, e.g. sunshine fraction, cloud cover and air mass on the basic k-k t relationship for nine sites across the globe. The influence on the k-k t regressions is studied qualitatively, and the inclusion of these parameters is suggested based on that. Thus, it is recommended to use the complementary data usually provided with the database apart from the global irradiation in order to estimate the diffuse irradiation more accurately. It was found by analysing each synoptic parameter individually that while the sunshine fraction showed a strong bearing, it was followed closely by cloud cover. Air mass, on the other hand, was found to be a weak parameter for general estimation of diffuse radiation. It was concluded that air mass if coupled with other synoptic parameters might improve the estimation accuracy, but it does not show much promise on its own when used with the global irradiation

Real-time airborne gamma-ray background estimation using NASVD with MLE and radiation transport for calibration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kulisek, J.A., E-mail: Jonathan.Kulisek@pnnl.gov; Schweppe, J.E.; Stave, S.C.; Bernacki, B.E.; Jordan, D.V.; Stewart, T.N.; Seifert, C.E.; Kernan, W.J.

2015-06-01

Helicopter-mounted gamma-ray detectors can provide law enforcement officials the means to quickly and accurately detect, identify, and locate radiological threats over a wide geographical area. The ability to accurately distinguish radiological threat-generated gamma-ray signatures from background gamma radiation in real time is essential in order to realize this potential. This problem is non-trivial, especially in urban environments for which the background may change very rapidly during flight. This exacerbates the challenge of estimating background due to the poor counting statistics inherent in real-time airborne gamma-ray spectroscopy measurements. To address this challenge, we have developed a new technique for real-time estimation of background gamma radiation from aerial measurements without the need for human analyst intervention. The method can be calibrated using radiation transport simulations along with data from previous flights over areas for which the isotopic composition need not be known. Over the examined measured and simulated data sets, the method generated accurate background estimates even in the presence of a strong, {sup 60}Co source. The potential to track large and abrupt changes in background spectral shape and magnitude was demonstrated. The method can be implemented fairly easily in most modern computing languages and environments.

A Project Management Approach to Using Simulation for Cost Estimation on Large, Complex Software Development Projects

Science.gov (United States)

Mizell, Carolyn; Malone, Linda

2007-01-01

It is very difficult for project managers to develop accurate cost and schedule estimates for large, complex software development projects. None of the approaches or tools available today can estimate the true cost of software with any high degree of accuracy early in a project. This paper provides an approach that utilizes a software development process simulation model that considers and conveys the level of uncertainty that exists when developing an initial estimate. A NASA project will be analyzed using simulation and data from the Software Engineering Laboratory to show the benefits of such an approach.

Does GPM-based multi-satellite precipitation enhance rainfall estimates over Pakistan and Bolivia arid regions?

Science.gov (United States)

Hussain, Y.; Satgé, F.; Bonnet, M. P.; Pillco, R.; Molina, J.; Timouk, F.; Roig, H.; Martinez-Carvajal, H., Sr.; Gulraiz, A.

2016-12-01

Arid regions are sensitive to rainfall variations which are expressed in the form of flooding and droughts. Unfortunately, those regions are poorly monitored and high quality rainfall estimates are still needed. The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission released two new satellite rainfall products named Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals GPM (IMERG) and Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation version 6 (GSMaP-v6) bringing the possibility of accurate rainfall monitoring over these countries. This study assessed both products at monthly scale over Pakistan considering dry and wet season over the 4 main climatic zones from 2014 to 2016. With similar climatic conditions, the Altiplano region of Bolivia is considered to quantify the influence of big lakes (Titicaca and Poopó) in rainfall estimates. For comparison, the widely used TRMM-Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis 3B43 (TMPA-3B43) version 7 is also involved in the analysis to observe the potential enhancement in rainfall estimate brought by GPM products. Rainfall estimates derived from 110 rain-gauges are used as reference to compare IMERG, GSMaP-v6 and TMPA-3B43 at the 0.1° and 0.25° spatial resolution. Over both regions, IMERG and GSMaP-v6 capture the spatial pattern of precipitation as well as TMPA-3B43. All products tend to over estimates rainfall over very arid regions. This feature is even more marked during dry season. However, during this season, both reference and estimated rainfall remain very low and do not impact seasonal water budget computation. On a general way, IMERG slightly outperforms TMPA-3B43 and GSMaP-v6 which provides the less accurate rainfall estimate. The TMPA-3B43 rainfall underestimation previously found over Lake Titicaca is still observed in IMERG estimates. However, GSMaP-v6 considerably decreases the underestimation providing the most accurate rainfall estimate over the lake. MOD11C3 Land Surface Temperature (LST) and ASTER Global Emissivity Dataset reveal strong

Yield Estimation for Semipalatinsk Underground Nuclear Explosions Using Seismic Surface-wave Observations at Near-regional Distances

Science.gov (United States)

Adushkin, V. V.

- A statistical procedure is described for estimating the yields of underground nuclear tests at the former Soviet Semipalatinsk test site using the peak amplitudes of short-period surface waves observed at near-regional distances (Δ Semipalatinsk explosions, including the Soviet JVE explosion of September 14, 1988, and it is demonstrated that it provides seismic estimates of explosion yield which are typically within 20% of the yields determined for these same explosions using more accurate, non-seismic techniques based on near-source observations.

Integrating GPS, GYRO, vehicle speed sensor, and digital map to provide accurate and real-time position in an intelligent navigation system

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Qingquan; Fang, Zhixiang; Li, Hanwu; Xiao, Hui

2005-10-01

The global positioning system (GPS) has become the most extensively used positioning and navigation tool in the world. Applications of GPS abound in surveying, mapping, transportation, agriculture, military planning, GIS, and the geosciences. However, the positional and elevation accuracy of any given GPS location is prone to error, due to a number of factors. The applications of Global Positioning System (GPS) positioning is more and more popular, especially the intelligent navigation system which relies on GPS and Dead Reckoning technology is developing quickly for future huge market in China. In this paper a practical combined positioning model of GPS/DR/MM is put forward, which integrates GPS, Gyro, Vehicle Speed Sensor (VSS) and digital navigation maps to provide accurate and real-time position for intelligent navigation system. This model is designed for automotive navigation system making use of Kalman filter to improve position and map matching veracity by means of filtering raw GPS and DR signals, and then map-matching technology is used to provide map coordinates for map displaying. In practical examples, for illustrating the validity of the model, several experiments and their results of integrated GPS/DR positioning in intelligent navigation system will be shown for the conclusion that Kalman Filter based GPS/DR integrating position approach is necessary, feasible and efficient for intelligent navigation application. Certainly, this combined positioning model, similar to other model, can not resolve all situation issues. Finally, some suggestions are given for further improving integrated GPS/DR/MM application.

Optimization of Photospheric Electric Field Estimates for Accurate Retrieval of Total Magnetic Energy Injection

Science.gov (United States)

Lumme, E.; Pomoell, J.; Kilpua, E. K. J.

2017-12-01

Estimates of the photospheric magnetic, electric, and plasma velocity fields are essential for studying the dynamics of the solar atmosphere, for example through the derivative quantities of Poynting and relative helicity flux and using the fields to obtain the lower boundary condition for data-driven coronal simulations. In this paper we study the performance of a data processing and electric field inversion approach that requires only high-resolution and high-cadence line-of-sight or vector magnetograms, which we obtain from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). The approach does not require any photospheric velocity estimates, and the lacking velocity information is compensated for using ad hoc assumptions. We show that the free parameters of these assumptions can be optimized to reproduce the time evolution of the total magnetic energy injection through the photosphere in NOAA AR 11158, when compared to recent state-of-the-art estimates for this active region. However, we find that the relative magnetic helicity injection is reproduced poorly, reaching at best a modest underestimation. We also discuss the effect of some of the data processing details on the results, including the masking of the noise-dominated pixels and the tracking method of the active region, neither of which has received much attention in the literature so far. In most cases the effect of these details is small, but when the optimization of the free parameters of the ad hoc assumptions is considered, a consistent use of the noise mask is required. The results found in this paper imply that the data processing and electric field inversion approach that uses only the photospheric magnetic field information offers a flexible and straightforward way to obtain photospheric magnetic and electric field estimates suitable for practical applications such as coronal modeling studies.

Estimation of Road Vehicle Speed Using Two Omnidirectional Microphones: A Maximum Likelihood Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

López-Valcarce Roberto

2004-01-01

Full Text Available We address the problem of estimating the speed of a road vehicle from its acoustic signature, recorded by a pair of omnidirectional microphones located next to the road. This choice of sensors is motivated by their nonintrusive nature as well as low installation and maintenance costs. A novel estimation technique is proposed, which is based on the maximum likelihood principle. It directly estimates car speed without any assumptions on the acoustic signal emitted by the vehicle. This has the advantages of bypassing troublesome intermediate delay estimation steps as well as eliminating the need for an accurate yet general enough acoustic traffic model. An analysis of the estimate for narrowband and broadband sources is provided and verified with computer simulations. The estimation algorithm uses a bank of modified crosscorrelators and therefore it is well suited to DSP implementation, performing well with preliminary field data.

Impact of microbial count distributions on human health risk estimates

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ribeiro Duarte, Ana Sofia; Nauta, Maarten

2015-01-01

Quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) is influenced by the choice of the probability distribution used to describe pathogen concentrations, as this may eventually have a large effect on the distribution of doses at exposure. When fitting a probability distribution to microbial...... enumeration data, several factors may have an impact on the accuracy of that fit. Analysis of the best statistical fits of different distributions alone does not provide a clear indication of the impact in terms of risk estimates. Thus, in this study we focus on the impact of fitting microbial distributions...... on risk estimates, at two different concentration scenarios and at a range of prevalence levels. By using five different parametric distributions, we investigate whether different characteristics of a good fit are crucial for an accurate risk estimate. Among the factors studied are the importance...

Fetus dose estimate of a pregnant worker

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Castro, P.; Espana, M.L.; Sevillano, D.; Minguez, C.; Ferrer, C.; Lopez Franco, P.

2006-01-01

A female employee working in diagnostic radiology should take additional controls to protect the unborn child from ionizing radiations. The fetus is particularly sensitive to the effects of x-rays and, so, the determination of the equivalent dose to the unborn child is of interest for risk estimates from occupational exposures of the pregnant workers. The ian of this study is to develop a method for fetus dose estimate of a pregnant worker who participates in interventional radiology procedures. Factors for converting dosemeter readings to equivalent dose to the fetus have been measured using thermoluminescence dosimetry. Equivalent dose to the uterus is used to simulate the equivalent dose to the fetus during the first two months of pregnancy. Measurements at different depths are made to consider the variations in the position of the uterus between pregnant women. The normalized doses obtained are dependent on the beam quality. Accurate estimation of fetus doses due to occupational exposures can be made using the data provided in the current study. (Author)

Magnitude Estimation for Large Earthquakes from Borehole Recordings

Science.gov (United States)

Eshaghi, A.; Tiampo, K. F.; Ghofrani, H.; Atkinson, G.

2012-12-01

We present a simple and fast method for magnitude determination technique for earthquake and tsunami early warning systems based on strong ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) in Japan. This method incorporates borehole strong motion records provided by the Kiban Kyoshin network (KiK-net) stations. We analyzed strong ground motion data from large magnitude earthquakes (5.0 ≤ M ≤ 8.1) with focal depths < 50 km and epicentral distances of up to 400 km from 1996 to 2010. Using both peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV) we derived GMPEs in Japan. These GMPEs are used as the basis for regional magnitude determination. Predicted magnitudes from PGA values (Mpga) and predicted magnitudes from PGV values (Mpgv) were defined. Mpga and Mpgv strongly correlate with the moment magnitude of the event, provided sufficient records for each event are available. The results show that Mpgv has a smaller standard deviation in comparison to Mpga when compared with the estimated magnitudes and provides a more accurate early assessment of earthquake magnitude. We test this new method to estimate the magnitude of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and we present the results of this estimation. PGA and PGV from borehole recordings allow us to estimate the magnitude of this event 156 s and 105 s after the earthquake onset, respectively. We demonstrate that the incorporation of borehole strong ground-motion records immediately available after the occurrence of large earthquakes significantly increases the accuracy of earthquake magnitude estimation and the associated improvement in earthquake and tsunami early warning systems performance. Moment magnitude versus predicted magnitude (Mpga and Mpgv).

A brute-force spectral approach for wave estimation using measured vessel motions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Ulrik D.; Brodtkorb, Astrid H.; Sørensen, Asgeir J.

2018-01-01

, and the procedure is simple in its mathematical formulation. The actual formulation is extending another recent work by including vessel advance speed and short-crested seas. Due to its simplicity, the procedure is computationally efficient, providing wave spectrum estimates in the order of a few seconds......The article introduces a spectral procedure for sea state estimation based on measurements of motion responses of a ship in a short-crested seaway. The procedure relies fundamentally on the wave buoy analogy, but the wave spectrum estimate is obtained in a direct - brute-force - approach......, and the estimation procedure will therefore be appealing to applications related to realtime, onboard control and decision support systems for safe and efficient marine operations. The procedure's performance is evaluated by use of numerical simulation of motion measurements, and it is shown that accurate wave...

Estimation of transient increases in bleeding risk associated with physical activity in children with haemophilia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Latimer Jane

2008-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Although it is widely appreciated that vigorous physical activity can increase the risk of bleeding episodes in children with haemophilia, the magnitude of the increase in risk is not known. Accurate risk estimates could inform decisions made by children with haemophilia and their parents about participation in physical activity and aid the development of optimal prophylactic schedules. The aim of this study is to provide an accurate estimate of the risks of bleeding associated with vigorous physical activity in children with haemophilia. Methods/Design The study will be a case-crossover study nested within a prospective cohort study. Children with moderate or severe haemophilia A or B, recruited from two paediatric haematology departments in Australia, will participate in the study. The child, or the child's parent or guardian, will report bleeding episodes experienced over a 12-month period. Following a bleeding episode, the participant will be interviewed by telephone about exposures to physical activity in the case period (8 hours before the bleed and 2 control periods (an 8 hour period at the same time on the day preceding the bleed and an 8 hour period two days preceding the bleed. Conditional logistic regression will be used to estimate the risk of participating in vigorous physical activity from measures of exposure to physical activity in the case and control periods. Discussion This case-control study will provide estimates of the risk of participation in vigorous physical activity in children with haemophilia.

Target Tracking in 3-D Using Estimation Based Nonlinear Control Laws for UAVs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mousumi Ahmed

2016-02-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an estimation based backstepping like control law design for an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV to track a moving target in 3-D space. A ground-based sensor or an onboard seeker antenna provides range, azimuth angle, and elevation angle measurements to a chaser UAV that implements an extended Kalman filter (EKF to estimate the full state of the target. A nonlinear controller then utilizes this estimated target state and the chaser’s state to provide speed, flight path, and course/heading angle commands to the chaser UAV. Tracking performance with respect to measurement uncertainty is evaluated for three cases: (1 stationary white noise; (2 stationary colored noise and (3 non-stationary (range correlated white noise. Furthermore, in an effort to improve tracking performance, the measurement model is made more realistic by taking into consideration range-dependent uncertainties in the measurements, i.e., as the chaser closes in on the target, measurement uncertainties are reduced in the EKF, thus providing the UAV with more accurate control commands. Simulation results for these cases are shown to illustrate target state estimation and trajectory tracking performance.

Interpolation Inequalities and Spectral Estimates for Magnetic Operators

Science.gov (United States)

Dolbeault, Jean; Esteban, Maria J.; Laptev, Ari; Loss, Michael

2018-05-01

We prove magnetic interpolation inequalities and Keller-Lieb-Thir-ring estimates for the principal eigenvalue of magnetic Schr{\\"o}dinger operators. We establish explicit upper and lower bounds for the best constants and show by numerical methods that our theoretical estimates are accurate.

Age estimation by amino acid racemization in human teeth.

Science.gov (United States)

Ohtani, Susumu; Yamamoto, Toshiharu

2010-11-01

When an unidentified body is found, it is essential to establish the personal identity of the body in addition to investigating the cause of death. Identification is one of the most important functions of forensic dentistry. Fingerprint, dental, and DNA analysis can be used to accurately identify a body. However, if no information is available for identification, age estimation can contribute to the resolution of a case. The authors have been using aspartic acid racemization rates in dentin (D-aspartic acid/L-aspartic acid: D/L Asp) as an index for age estimation and have obtained satisfactory results. We report five cases of age estimation using the racemization method. In all five cases, estimated ages were accurate within a range ±3 years. We conclude that the racemization method is a reliable and practical method for estimating age. © 2010 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Size-based estimation of the status of fish stocks: simulation analysis and comparison with age-based estimations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kokkalis, Alexandros; Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro; Nielsen, Anders

, were investigated and our estimations were compared to the ICES advice. Only size-specific catch data were used, in order to emulate data limited situations. The simulation analysis reveals that the status of the stock, i.e. F/Fmsy, is estimated more accurately than the fishing mortality F itself....... Specific knowledge of the natural mortality improves the estimation more than having information about all other life history parameters. Our approach gives, at least qualitatively, an estimated stock status which is similar to the results of an age-based assessment. Since our approach only uses size...

Estimating Contraceptive Prevalence Using Logistics Data for Short-Acting Methods: Analysis Across 30 Countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Cunningham, Marc; Bock, Ariella; Brown, Niquelle; Sacher, Suzy; Hatch, Benjamin; Inglis, Andrew; Aronovich, Dana

2015-09-01

Contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) is a vital indicator used by country governments, international donors, and other stakeholders for measuring progress in family planning programs against country targets and global initiatives as well as for estimating health outcomes. Because of the need for more frequent CPR estimates than population-based surveys currently provide, alternative approaches for estimating CPRs are being explored, including using contraceptive logistics data. Using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) in 30 countries, population data from the United States Census Bureau International Database, and logistics data from the Procurement Planning and Monitoring Report (PPMR) and the Pipeline Monitoring and Procurement Planning System (PipeLine), we developed and evaluated 3 models to generate country-level, public-sector contraceptive prevalence estimates for injectable contraceptives, oral contraceptives, and male condoms. Models included: direct estimation through existing couple-years of protection (CYP) conversion factors, bivariate linear regression, and multivariate linear regression. Model evaluation consisted of comparing the referent DHS prevalence rates for each short-acting method with the model-generated prevalence rate using multiple metrics, including mean absolute error and proportion of countries where the modeled prevalence rate for each method was within 1, 2, or 5 percentage points of the DHS referent value. For the methods studied, family planning use estimates from public-sector logistics data were correlated with those from the DHS, validating the quality and accuracy of current public-sector logistics data. Logistics data for oral and injectable contraceptives were significantly associated (Plogistics data are strongly correlated with public-sector prevalence rates for short-acting methods, demonstrating the quality of current logistics data and their ability to provide relatively accurate prevalence estimates. The

On-board adaptive model for state of charge estimation of lithium-ion batteries based on Kalman filter with proportional integral-based error adjustment

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, Jingwen; Dong, Guangzhong; Chen, Zonghai

2017-10-01

With the rapid development of battery-powered electric vehicles, the lithium-ion battery plays a critical role in the reliability of vehicle system. In order to provide timely management and protection for battery systems, it is necessary to develop a reliable battery model and accurate battery parameters estimation to describe battery dynamic behaviors. Therefore, this paper focuses on an on-board adaptive model for state-of-charge (SOC) estimation of lithium-ion batteries. Firstly, a first-order equivalent circuit battery model is employed to describe battery dynamic characteristics. Then, the recursive least square algorithm and the off-line identification method are used to provide good initial values of model parameters to ensure filter stability and reduce the convergence time. Thirdly, an extended-Kalman-filter (EKF) is applied to on-line estimate battery SOC and model parameters. Considering that the EKF is essentially a first-order Taylor approximation of battery model, which contains inevitable model errors, thus, a proportional integral-based error adjustment technique is employed to improve the performance of EKF method and correct model parameters. Finally, the experimental results on lithium-ion batteries indicate that the proposed EKF with proportional integral-based error adjustment method can provide robust and accurate battery model and on-line parameter estimation.

Use of Bayesian Estimates to determine the Volatility Parameter Input in the Black-Scholes and Binomial Option Pricing Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shu Wing Ho

2011-12-01

Full Text Available The valuation of options and many other derivative instruments requires an estimation of exante or forward looking volatility. This paper adopts a Bayesian approach to estimate stock price volatility. We find evidence that overall Bayesian volatility estimates more closely approximate the implied volatility of stocks derived from traded call and put options prices compared to historical volatility estimates sourced from IVolatility.com (“IVolatility”. Our evidence suggests use of the Bayesian approach to estimate volatility can provide a more accurate measure of ex-ante stock price volatility and will be useful in the pricing of derivative securities where the implied stock price volatility cannot be observed.

Enhancing adaptive sparse grid approximations and improving refinement strategies using adjoint-based a posteriori error estimates

Science.gov (United States)

Jakeman, J. D.; Wildey, T.

2015-01-01

In this paper we present an algorithm for adaptive sparse grid approximations of quantities of interest computed from discretized partial differential equations. We use adjoint-based a posteriori error estimates of the physical discretization error and the interpolation error in the sparse grid to enhance the sparse grid approximation and to drive adaptivity of the sparse grid. Utilizing these error estimates provides significantly more accurate functional values for random samples of the sparse grid approximation. We also demonstrate that alternative refinement strategies based upon a posteriori error estimates can lead to further increases in accuracy in the approximation over traditional hierarchical surplus based strategies. Throughout this paper we also provide and test a framework for balancing the physical discretization error with the stochastic interpolation error of the enhanced sparse grid approximation.

Enhancing adaptive sparse grid approximations and improving refinement strategies using adjoint-based a posteriori error estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jakeman, J.D.; Wildey, T.

2015-01-01

In this paper we present an algorithm for adaptive sparse grid approximations of quantities of interest computed from discretized partial differential equations. We use adjoint-based a posteriori error estimates of the physical discretization error and the interpolation error in the sparse grid to enhance the sparse grid approximation and to drive adaptivity of the sparse grid. Utilizing these error estimates provides significantly more accurate functional values for random samples of the sparse grid approximation. We also demonstrate that alternative refinement strategies based upon a posteriori error estimates can lead to further increases in accuracy in the approximation over traditional hierarchical surplus based strategies. Throughout this paper we also provide and test a framework for balancing the physical discretization error with the stochastic interpolation error of the enhanced sparse grid approximation

Accurate evaluation for the biofilm-activated sludge reactor using graphical techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Fouad, Moharram; Bhargava, Renu

2018-05-01

A complete graphical solution is obtained for the completely mixed biofilm-activated sludge reactor (hybrid reactor). The solution consists of a series of curves deduced from the principal equations of the hybrid system after converting them in dimensionless form. The curves estimate the basic parameters of the hybrid system such as suspended biomass concentration, sludge residence time, wasted mass of sludge, and food to biomass ratio. All of these parameters can be expressed as functions of hydraulic retention time, influent substrate concentration, substrate concentration in the bulk, stagnant liquid layer thickness, and the minimum substrate concentration which can maintain the biofilm growth in addition to the basic kinetics of the activated sludge process in which all these variables are expressed in a dimensionless form. Compared to other solutions of such system these curves are simple, easy to use, and provide an accurate tool for analyzing such system based on fundamental principles. Further, these curves may be used as a quick tool to get the effect of variables change on the other parameters and the whole system.

Estimating the burden of antimicrobial resistance: a systematic literature review.

Science.gov (United States)

Naylor, Nichola R; Atun, Rifat; Zhu, Nina; Kulasabanathan, Kavian; Silva, Sachin; Chatterjee, Anuja; Knight, Gwenan M; Robotham, Julie V

2018-01-01

Accurate estimates of the burden of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are needed to establish the magnitude of this global threat in terms of both health and cost, and to paramaterise cost-effectiveness evaluations of interventions aiming to tackle the problem. This review aimed to establish the alternative methodologies used in estimating AMR burden in order to appraise the current evidence base. MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus, EconLit, PubMed and grey literature were searched. English language studies evaluating the impact of AMR (from any microbe) on patient, payer/provider and economic burden published between January 2013 and December 2015 were included. Independent screening of title/abstracts followed by full texts was performed using pre-specified criteria. A study quality score (from zero to one) was derived using Newcastle-Ottawa and Philips checklists. Extracted study data were used to compare study method and resulting burden estimate, according to perspective. Monetary costs were converted into 2013 USD. Out of 5187 unique retrievals, 214 studies were included. One hundred eighty-seven studies estimated patient health, 75 studies estimated payer/provider and 11 studies estimated economic burden. 64% of included studies were single centre. The majority of studies estimating patient or provider/payer burden used regression techniques. 48% of studies estimating mortality burden found a significant impact from resistance, excess healthcare system costs ranged from non-significance to $1 billion per year, whilst economic burden ranged from $21,832 per case to over $3 trillion in GDP loss. Median quality scores (interquartile range) for patient, payer/provider and economic burden studies were 0.67 (0.56-0.67), 0.56 (0.46-0.67) and 0.53 (0.44-0.60) respectively. This study highlights what methodological assumptions and biases can occur dependent on chosen outcome and perspective. Currently, there is considerable variability in burden estimates, which can lead in

Estimation of the Power Peaking Factor in a Nuclear Reactor Using Support Vector Machines and Uncertainty Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bae, In Ho; Na, Man Gyun; Lee, Yoon Joon; Park, Goon Cherl

2009-01-01

Knowing more about the Local Power Density (LPD) at the hottest part of a nuclear reactor core can provide more important information than knowledge of the LPD at any other position. The LPD at the hottest part needs to be estimated accurately in order to prevent the fuel rod from melting in a nuclear reactor. Support Vector Machines (SVMs) have successfully been applied in classification and regression problems. Therefore, in this paper, the power peaking factor, which is defined as the highest LPD to the average power density in a reactor core, was estimated by SVMs which use numerous measured signals of the reactor coolant system. The SVM models were developed by using a training data set and validated by an independent test data set. The SVM models' uncertainty was analyzed by using 100 sampled training data sets and verification data sets. The prediction intervals were very small, which means that the predicted values were very accurate. The predicted values were then applied to the first fuel cycle of the Yonggwang Nuclear Power Plant Unit 3. The root mean squared error was approximately 0.15%, which is accurate enough for use in LPD monitoring and for core protection that uses LPD estimation

Accurate estimation of dose distributions inside an eye irradiated with {sup 106}Ru plaques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brualla, L.; Sauerwein, W. [Universitaetsklinikum Essen (Germany). NCTeam, Strahlenklinik; Sempau, J.; Zaragoza, F.J. [Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya, Barcelona (Spain). Inst. de Tecniques Energetiques; Wittig, A. [Marburg Univ. (Germany). Klinik fuer Strahlentherapie und Radioonkologie

2013-01-15

Background: Irradiation of intraocular tumors requires dedicated techniques, such as brachytherapy with {sup 106}Ru plaques. The currently available treatment planning system relies on the assumption that the eye is a homogeneous water sphere and on simplified radiation transport physics. However, accurate dose distributions and their assessment demand better models for both the eye and the physics. Methods: The Monte Carlo code PENELOPE, conveniently adapted to simulate the beta decay of {sup 106}Ru over {sup 106}Rh into {sup 106}Pd, was used to simulate radiation transport based on a computerized tomography scan of a patient's eye. A detailed geometrical description of two plaques (models CCA and CCB) from the manufacturer BEBIG was embedded in the computerized tomography scan. Results: The simulations were firstly validated by comparison with experimental results in a water phantom. Dose maps were computed for three plaque locations on the eyeball. From these maps, isodose curves and cumulative dose-volume histograms in the eye and for the structures at risk were assessed. For example, it was observed that a 4-mm anterior displacement with respect to a posterior placement of a CCA plaque for treating a posterior tumor would reduce from 40 to 0% the volume of the optic disc receiving more than 80 Gy. Such a small difference in anatomical position leads to a change in the dose that is crucial for side effects, especially with respect to visual acuity. The radiation oncologist has to bring these large changes in absorbed dose in the structures at risk to the attention of the surgeon, especially when the plaque has to be positioned close to relevant tissues. Conclusion: The detailed geometry of an eye plaque in computerized and segmented tomography of a realistic patient phantom was simulated accurately. Dose-volume histograms for relevant anatomical structures of the eye and the orbit were obtained with unprecedented accuracy. This represents an important step

Observers for vehicle tyre/road forces estimation: experimental validation

Science.gov (United States)

Doumiati, M.; Victorino, A.; Lechner, D.; Baffet, G.; Charara, A.

2010-11-01

The motion of a vehicle is governed by the forces generated between the tyres and the road. Knowledge of these vehicle dynamic variables is important for vehicle control systems that aim to enhance vehicle stability and passenger safety. This study introduces a new estimation process for tyre/road forces. It presents many benefits over the existing state-of-art works, within the dynamic estimation framework. One of these major contributions consists of discussing in detail the vertical and lateral tyre forces at each tyre. The proposed method is based on the dynamic response of a vehicle instrumented with potentially integrated sensors. The estimation process is separated into two principal blocks. The role of the first block is to estimate vertical tyre forces, whereas in the second block two observers are proposed and compared for the estimation of lateral tyre/road forces. The different observers are based on a prediction/estimation Kalman filter. The performance of this concept is tested and compared with real experimental data using a laboratory car. Experimental results show that the proposed approach is a promising technique to provide accurate estimation. Thus, it can be considered as a practical low-cost solution for calculating vertical and lateral tyre/road forces.

A new approach for accurate mass assignment on a multi-turn time-of-flight mass spectrometer.

Science.gov (United States)

Hondo, Toshinobu; Jensen, Kirk R; Aoki, Jun; Toyoda, Michisato

2017-12-01

A simple, effective accurate mass assignment procedure for a time-of-flight mass spectrometer is desirable. External mass calibration using a mass calibration standard together with an internal mass reference (lock mass) is a common technique for mass assignment, however, using polynomial fitting can result in mass-dependent errors. By using the multi-turn time-of-flight mass spectrometer infiTOF-UHV, we were able to obtain multiple time-of-flight data from an ion monitored under several different numbers of laps that was then used to calculate a mass calibration equation. We have developed a data acquisition system that simultaneously monitors spectra at several different lap conditions with on-the-fly centroid determination and scan law estimation, which is a function of acceleration voltage, flight path, and instrumental time delay. Less than 0.9 mDa mass errors were observed for assigned mass to charge ratios ( m/z) ranging between 4 and 134 using only 40 Ar + as a reference. It was also observed that estimating the scan law on-the-fly provides excellent mass drift compensation.

Robust motion estimation using connected operators

OpenAIRE

Salembier Clairon, Philippe Jean; Sanson, H

1997-01-01

This paper discusses the use of connected operators for robust motion estimation The proposed strategy involves a motion estimation step extracting the dominant motion and a ltering step relying on connected operators that remove objects that do not fol low the dominant motion. These two steps are iterated in order to obtain an accurate motion estimation and a precise de nition of the objects fol lowing this motion This strategy can be applied on the entire frame or on individual connected c...

Parametric cost estimation for space science missions

Science.gov (United States)

Lillie, Charles F.; Thompson, Bruce E.

2008-07-01

Cost estimation for space science missions is critically important in budgeting for successful missions. The process requires consideration of a number of parameters, where many of the values are only known to a limited accuracy. The results of cost estimation are not perfect, but must be calculated and compared with the estimates that the government uses for budgeting purposes. Uncertainties in the input parameters result from evolving requirements for missions that are typically the "first of a kind" with "state-of-the-art" instruments and new spacecraft and payload technologies that make it difficult to base estimates on the cost histories of previous missions. Even the cost of heritage avionics is uncertain due to parts obsolescence and the resulting redesign work. Through experience and use of industry best practices developed in participation with the Aerospace Industries Association (AIA), Northrop Grumman has developed a parametric modeling approach that can provide a reasonably accurate cost range and most probable cost for future space missions. During the initial mission phases, the approach uses mass- and powerbased cost estimating relationships (CER)'s developed with historical data from previous missions. In later mission phases, when the mission requirements are better defined, these estimates are updated with vendor's bids and "bottoms- up", "grass-roots" material and labor cost estimates based on detailed schedules and assigned tasks. In this paper we describe how we develop our CER's for parametric cost estimation and how they can be applied to estimate the costs for future space science missions like those presented to the Astronomy & Astrophysics Decadal Survey Study Committees.

Comparison Study on Two Model-Based Adaptive Algorithms for SOC Estimation of Lithium-Ion Batteries in Electric Vehicles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yong Tian

2014-12-01

Full Text Available State of charge (SOC estimation is essential to battery management systems in electric vehicles (EVs to ensure the safe operations of batteries and providing drivers with the remaining range of the EVs. A number of estimation algorithms have been developed to get an accurate SOC value because the SOC cannot be directly measured with sensors and is closely related to various factors, such as ambient temperature, current rate and battery aging. In this paper, two model-based adaptive algorithms, including the adaptive unscented Kalman filter (AUKF and adaptive slide mode observer (ASMO are applied and compared in terms of convergence behavior, tracking accuracy, computational cost and estimation robustness against parameter uncertainties of the battery model in SOC estimation. Two typical driving cycles, including the Dynamic Stress Test (DST and New European Driving Cycle (NEDC are applied to evaluate the performance of the two algorithms. Comparison results show that the AUKF has merits in convergence ability and tracking accuracy with an accurate battery model, while the ASMO has lower computational cost and better estimation robustness against parameter uncertainties of the battery model.

Accurate predictions for the LHC made easy

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2014-01-01

The data recorded by the LHC experiments is of a very high quality. To get the most out of the data, precise theory predictions, including uncertainty estimates, are needed to reduce as much as possible theoretical bias in the experimental analyses. Recently, significant progress has been made in computing Next-to-Leading Order (NLO) computations, including matching to the parton shower, that allow for these accurate, hadron-level predictions. I shall discuss one of these efforts, the MadGraph5_aMC@NLO program, that aims at the complete automation of predictions at the NLO accuracy within the SM as well as New Physics theories. I’ll illustrate some of the theoretical ideas behind this program, show some selected applications to LHC physics, as well as describe the future plans.

METAPHOR: Probability density estimation for machine learning based photometric redshifts

Science.gov (United States)

Amaro, V.; Cavuoti, S.; Brescia, M.; Vellucci, C.; Tortora, C.; Longo, G.

2017-06-01

We present METAPHOR (Machine-learning Estimation Tool for Accurate PHOtometric Redshifts), a method able to provide a reliable PDF for photometric galaxy redshifts estimated through empirical techniques. METAPHOR is a modular workflow, mainly based on the MLPQNA neural network as internal engine to derive photometric galaxy redshifts, but giving the possibility to easily replace MLPQNA with any other method to predict photo-z's and their PDF. We present here the results about a validation test of the workflow on the galaxies from SDSS-DR9, showing also the universality of the method by replacing MLPQNA with KNN and Random Forest models. The validation test include also a comparison with the PDF's derived from a traditional SED template fitting method (Le Phare).

Estimating passenger numbers in trains using existing weighing capabilities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Bo Friis; Frølich, Laura; Nielsen, Otto Anker

2013-01-01

trains to control braking. This technique makes passenger counting cheaper and ensures a complete sample. The paper compares numbers estimated by this technique with manual counts and counts from an infrared system in trains in urban Copenhagen. It shows that the weighing system provides more accurate......Knowing passenger numbers is important for the planning and operation of the urban rail systems. Manual and electronic counting systems (typically infrared or video) are expensive and therefore entail small sample sizes. They usually count boarding and alighting passengers, which means that errors...... in estimates of total numbers of passengers propagate along train runs. Counting errors in manual and electronic counting systems are typically flow-dependent, making uncertainty a function of volume. This paper presents a new counting technique that exploits the weighing systems installed in most modern...

Multi-person localization and orientation estimation in volumetric scene reconstructions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Liem, M.C.

2014-01-01

Accurate localization of persons and estimation of their pose are important topics in current-day computer vision research. As part of the pose estimation, estimating the body orientation of a person (i.e. rotation around torso major axis) conveys important information about the person's current

Evaluation of short-period rainfall estimates from Kalpana-1 satellite

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

The INSAT Multispectral Rainfall Algorithm (IMSRA) technique for rainfall estimation, has recently been developed to meet the shortcomings of the Global Precipitation Index (GPI) technique of rainfall estimation from the data of geostationary satellites; especially for accurate short period rainfall estimates. This study ...

Accurate Medium-Term Wind Power Forecasting in a Censored Classification Framework

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dahl, Christian M.; Croonenbroeck, Carsten

2014-01-01

We provide a wind power forecasting methodology that exploits many of the actual data's statistical features, in particular both-sided censoring. While other tools ignore many of the important “stylized facts” or provide forecasts for short-term horizons only, our approach focuses on medium......-term forecasts, which are especially necessary for practitioners in the forward electricity markets of many power trading places; for example, NASDAQ OMX Commodities (formerly Nord Pool OMX Commodities) in northern Europe. We show that our model produces turbine-specific forecasts that are significantly more...... accurate in comparison to established benchmark models and present an application that illustrates the financial impact of more accurate forecasts obtained using our methodology....

Resilient Distributed Estimation Through Adversary Detection

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yuan; Kar, Soummya; Moura, Jose M. F.

2018-05-01

This paper studies resilient multi-agent distributed estimation of an unknown vector parameter when a subset of the agents is adversarial. We present and analyze a Flag Raising Distributed Estimator ($\\mathcal{FRDE}$) that allows the agents under attack to perform accurate parameter estimation and detect the adversarial agents. The $\\mathcal{FRDE}$ algorithm is a consensus+innovations estimator in which agents combine estimates of neighboring agents (consensus) with local sensing information (innovations). We establish that, under $\\mathcal{FRDE}$, either the uncompromised agents' estimates are almost surely consistent or the uncompromised agents detect compromised agents if and only if the network of uncompromised agents is connected and globally observable. Numerical examples illustrate the performance of $\\mathcal{FRDE}$.

Can Wearable Devices Accurately Measure Heart Rate Variability? A Systematic Review.

Science.gov (United States)

Georgiou, Konstantinos; Larentzakis, Andreas V; Khamis, Nehal N; Alsuhaibani, Ghadah I; Alaska, Yasser A; Giallafos, Elias J

2018-03-01

A growing number of wearable devices claim to provide accurate, cheap and easily applicable heart rate variability (HRV) indices. This is mainly accomplished by using wearable photoplethysmography (PPG) and/or electrocardiography (ECG), through simple and non-invasive techniques, as a substitute of the gold standard RR interval estimation through electrocardiogram. Although the agreement between pulse rate variability (PRV) and HRV has been evaluated in the literature, the reported results are still inconclusive especially when using wearable devices. The purpose of this systematic review is to investigate if wearable devices provide a reliable and precise measurement of classic HRV parameters in rest as well as during exercise. A search strategy was implemented to retrieve relevant articles from MEDLINE and SCOPUS databases, as well as, through internet search. The 308 articles retrieved were reviewed for further evaluation according to the predetermined inclusion/exclusion criteria. Eighteen studies were included. Sixteen of them integrated ECG - HRV technology and two of them PPG - PRV technology. All of them examined wearable devices accuracy in RV detection during rest, while only eight of them during exercise. The correlation between classic ECG derived HRV and the wearable RV ranged from very good to excellent during rest, yet it declined progressively as exercise level increased. Wearable devices may provide a promising alternative solution for measuring RV. However, more robust studies in non-stationary conditions are needed using appropriate methodology in terms of number of subjects involved, acquisition and analysis techniques implied.

Auditory/visual distance estimation: accuracy and variability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paul Wallace Anderson

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Past research has shown that auditory distance estimation improves when listeners are given the opportunity to see all possible sound sources when compared to no visual input. It has also been established that distance estimation is more accurate in vision than in audition. The present study investigates the degree to which auditory distance estimation is improved when matched with a congruent visual stimulus. Virtual sound sources based on binaural room impulse response (BRIR measurements made from distances ranging from approximately 0.3 to 9.8 m in a concert hall were used as auditory stimuli. Visual stimuli were photographs taken from the listener’s perspective at each distance in the impulse response measurement setup presented on a large HDTV monitor. Listeners were asked to estimate egocentric distance to the sound source in each of three conditions: auditory only (A, visual only (V, and congruent auditory/visual stimuli (A+V. Each condition was presented within its own block. Sixty-two listeners were tested in order to quantify the response variability inherent in auditory distance perception. Distance estimates from both the V and A+V conditions were found to be considerably more accurate and less variable than estimates from the A condition.

Compact and accurate linear and nonlinear autoregressive moving average model parameter estimation using laguerre functions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chon, K H; Cohen, R J; Holstein-Rathlou, N H

1997-01-01

A linear and nonlinear autoregressive moving average (ARMA) identification algorithm is developed for modeling time series data. The algorithm uses Laguerre expansion of kernals (LEK) to estimate Volterra-Wiener kernals. However, instead of estimating linear and nonlinear system dynamics via moving...... average models, as is the case for the Volterra-Wiener analysis, we propose an ARMA model-based approach. The proposed algorithm is essentially the same as LEK, but this algorithm is extended to include past values of the output as well. Thus, all of the advantages associated with using the Laguerre...

An accurate determination of the flux within a slab

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ganapol, B.D.; Lapenta, G.

1993-01-01

During the past decade, several articles have been written concerning accurate solutions to the monoenergetic neutron transport equation in infinite and semi-infinite geometries. The numerical formulations found in these articles were based primarily on the extensive theoretical investigations performed by the open-quotes transport greatsclose quotes such as Chandrasekhar, Busbridge, Sobolev, and Ivanov, to name a few. The development of numerical solutions in infinite and semi-infinite geometries represents an example of how mathematical transport theory can be utilized to provide highly accurate and efficient numerical transport solutions. These solutions, or analytical benchmarks, are useful as open-quotes industry standards,close quotes which provide guidance to code developers and promote learning in the classroom. The high accuracy of these benchmarks is directly attributable to the rapid advancement of the state of computing and computational methods. Transport calculations that were beyond the capability of the open-quotes supercomputersclose quotes of just a few years ago are now possible at one's desk. In this paper, we again build upon the past to tackle the slab problem, which is of the next level of difficulty in comparison to infinite media problems. The formulation is based on the monoenergetic Green's function, which is the most fundamental transport solution. This method of solution requires a fast and accurate evaluation of the Green's function, which, with today's computational power, is now readily available

Taking into account latency, amplitude, and morphology: improved estimation of single-trial ERPs by wavelet filtering and multiple linear regression.

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, L; Liang, M; Mouraux, A; Wise, R G; Hu, Y; Iannetti, G D

2011-12-01

Across-trial averaging is a widely used approach to enhance the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of event-related potentials (ERPs). However, across-trial variability of ERP latency and amplitude may contain physiologically relevant information that is lost by across-trial averaging. Hence, we aimed to develop a novel method that uses 1) wavelet filtering (WF) to enhance the SNR of ERPs and 2) a multiple linear regression with a dispersion term (MLR(d)) that takes into account shape distortions to estimate the single-trial latency and amplitude of ERP peaks. Using simulated ERP data sets containing different levels of noise, we provide evidence that, compared with other approaches, the proposed WF+MLR(d) method yields the most accurate estimate of single-trial ERP features. When applied to a real laser-evoked potential data set, the WF+MLR(d) approach provides reliable estimation of single-trial latency, amplitude, and morphology of ERPs and thereby allows performing meaningful correlations at single-trial level. We obtained three main findings. First, WF significantly enhances the SNR of single-trial ERPs. Second, MLR(d) effectively captures and measures the variability in the morphology of single-trial ERPs, thus providing an accurate and unbiased estimate of their peak latency and amplitude. Third, intensity of pain perception significantly correlates with the single-trial estimates of N2 and P2 amplitude. These results indicate that WF+MLR(d) can be used to explore the dynamics between different ERP features, behavioral variables, and other neuroimaging measures of brain activity, thus providing new insights into the functional significance of the different brain processes underlying the brain responses to sensory stimuli.

Estimator's electrical man-hour manual

CERN Document Server

Page, John S

1999-01-01

This manual's latest edition continues to be the best source available for making accurate, reliable man-hour estimates for electrical installation. This new edition is revised and expanded to include installation of electrical instrumentation, which is used in monitoring various process systems.

TETRA-COM: a comprehensive SPSS program for estimating the tetrachoric correlation.

Science.gov (United States)

Lorenzo-Seva, Urbano; Ferrando, Pere J

2012-12-01

We provide an SPSS program that implements descriptive and inferential procedures for estimating tetrachoric correlations. These procedures have two main purposes: (1) bivariate estimation in contingency tables and (2) constructing a correlation matrix to be used as input for factor analysis (in particular, the SPSS FACTOR procedure). In both cases, the program computes accurate point estimates, as well as standard errors and confidence intervals that are correct for any population value. For purpose (1), the program computes the contingency table together with five other measures of association. For purpose (2), the program checks the positive definiteness of the matrix, and if it is found not to be Gramian, performs a nonlinear smoothing procedure at the user's request. The SPSS syntax, a short manual, and data files related to this article are available as supplemental materials from brm.psychonomic-journals.org/content/supplemental.

Estimation of the absorbed dose in radiation-processed food. Pt.2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Desrosiers, M.F.

1991-01-01

The use of electron paramagnetic resonance spectroscopy to accurately evaluate the absorbed dose to radiation-processed bones (and thus meats) is examined. Additive re-irradiation of the bone produces a reproducible response function which can be used to evaluate the initial dose by back-extrapolation. It was found that an exponential fit (vs linear or polynomial) to the data provides improved accuracy of the estimated dose. These data as well as the protocol for the additive dose method are presented. (author)

Energization of Long HVAC Cables in Parallel - Analysis and Estimation Formulas

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Silva, Filipe Faria Da; Bak, Claus Leth

2012-01-01

The installation of long HVAC cables has recently become more common and it tends to increase during the next years. Consequently, the energization of long HVAC cables in parallel is also a more common condition. The energization of HVAC cables in parallel resembles the en-ergization of capacitor...... has several simplifications and does not always provide accurate results. This paper proposes a new formula that can be used for the estimation of these two quantities for two HVAC cables in parallel....

An Evaluation of the Plant Density Estimator the Point-Centred Quarter Method (PCQM Using Monte Carlo Simulation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Md Nabiul Islam Khan

Full Text Available In the Point-Centred Quarter Method (PCQM, the mean distance of the first nearest plants in each quadrant of a number of random sample points is converted to plant density. It is a quick method for plant density estimation. In recent publications the estimator equations of simple PCQM (PCQM1 and higher order ones (PCQM2 and PCQM3, which uses the distance of the second and third nearest plants, respectively show discrepancy. This study attempts to review PCQM estimators in order to find the most accurate equation form. We tested the accuracy of different PCQM equations using Monte Carlo Simulations in simulated (having 'random', 'aggregated' and 'regular' spatial patterns plant populations and empirical ones.PCQM requires at least 50 sample points to ensure a desired level of accuracy. PCQM with a corrected estimator is more accurate than with a previously published estimator. The published PCQM versions (PCQM1, PCQM2 and PCQM3 show significant differences in accuracy of density estimation, i.e. the higher order PCQM provides higher accuracy. However, the corrected PCQM versions show no significant differences among them as tested in various spatial patterns except in plant assemblages with a strong repulsion (plant competition. If N is number of sample points and R is distance, the corrected estimator of PCQM1 is 4(4N - 1/(π ∑ R2 but not 12N/(π ∑ R2, of PCQM2 is 4(8N - 1/(π ∑ R2 but not 28N/(π ∑ R2 and of PCQM3 is 4(12N - 1/(π ∑ R2 but not 44N/(π ∑ R2 as published.If the spatial pattern of a plant association is random, PCQM1 with a corrected equation estimator and over 50 sample points would be sufficient to provide accurate density estimation. PCQM using just the nearest tree in each quadrant is therefore sufficient, which facilitates sampling of trees, particularly in areas with just a few hundred trees per hectare. PCQM3 provides the best density estimations for all types of plant assemblages including the repulsion process

Improving accuracy of portion-size estimations through a stimulus equivalence paradigm.

Science.gov (United States)

Hausman, Nicole L; Borrero, John C; Fisher, Alyssa; Kahng, SungWoo

2014-01-01

The prevalence of obesity continues to increase in the United States (Gordon-Larsen, The, & Adair, 2010). Obesity can be attributed, in part, to overconsumption of energy-dense foods. Given that overeating plays a role in the development of obesity, interventions that teach individuals to identify and consume appropriate portion sizes are warranted. Specifically, interventions that teach individuals to estimate portion sizes correctly without the use of aids may be critical to the success of nutrition education programs. The current study evaluated the use of a stimulus equivalence paradigm to teach 9 undergraduate students to estimate portion size accurately. Results suggested that the stimulus equivalence paradigm was effective in teaching participants to make accurate portion size estimations without aids, and improved accuracy was observed in maintenance sessions that were conducted 1 week after training. Furthermore, 5 of 7 participants estimated the target portion size of novel foods during extension sessions. These data extend existing research on teaching accurate portion-size estimations and may be applicable to populations who seek treatment (e.g., overweight or obese children and adults) to teach healthier eating habits. © Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

Software Estimation Demystifying the Black Art

CERN Document Server

McConnell, Steve

2009-01-01

Often referred to as the "black art" because of its complexity and uncertainty, software estimation is not as difficult or puzzling as people think. In fact, generating accurate estimates is straightforward-once you understand the art of creating them. In his highly anticipated book, acclaimed author Steve McConnell unravels the mystery to successful software estimation-distilling academic information and real-world experience into a practical guide for working software professionals. Instead of arcane treatises and rigid modeling techniques, this guide highlights a proven set of procedures,

AMID: Accurate Magnetic Indoor Localization Using Deep Learning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Namkyoung Lee

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Geomagnetic-based indoor positioning has drawn a great attention from academia and industry due to its advantage of being operable without infrastructure support and its reliable signal characteristics. However, it must overcome the problems of ambiguity that originate with the nature of geomagnetic data. Most studies manage this problem by incorporating particle filters along with inertial sensors. However, they cannot yield reliable positioning results because the inertial sensors in smartphones cannot precisely predict the movement of users. There have been attempts to recognize the magnetic sequence pattern, but these attempts are proven only in a one-dimensional space, because magnetic intensity fluctuates severely with even a slight change of locations. This paper proposes accurate magnetic indoor localization using deep learning (AMID, an indoor positioning system that recognizes magnetic sequence patterns using a deep neural network. Features are extracted from magnetic sequences, and then the deep neural network is used for classifying the sequences by patterns that are generated by nearby magnetic landmarks. Locations are estimated by detecting the landmarks. AMID manifested the proposed features and deep learning as an outstanding classifier, revealing the potential of accurate magnetic positioning with smartphone sensors alone. The landmark detection accuracy was over 80% in a two-dimensional environment.

Reference air kerma and kerma-area product as estimators of peak skin dose for fluoroscopically guided interventions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kwon, Deukwoo; Little, Mark P.; Miller, Donald L.

2011-01-01

Purpose: To determine more accurate regression formulas for estimating peak skin dose (PSD) from reference air kerma (RAK) or kerma-area product (KAP). Methods: After grouping of the data from 21 procedures into 13 clinically similar groups, assessments were made of optimal clustering using the Bayesian information criterion to obtain the optimal linear regressions of (log-transformed) PSD vs RAK, PSD vs KAP, and PSD vs RAK and KAP. Results: Three clusters of clinical groups were optimal in regression of PSD vs RAK, seven clusters of clinical groups were optimal in regression of PSD vs KAP, and six clusters of clinical groups were optimal in regression of PSD vs RAK and KAP. Prediction of PSD using both RAK and KAP is significantly better than prediction of PSD with either RAK or KAP alone. The regression of PSD vs RAK provided better predictions of PSD than the regression of PSD vs KAP. The partial-pooling (clustered) method yields smaller mean squared errors compared with the complete-pooling method.Conclusion: PSD distributions for interventional radiology procedures are log-normal. Estimates of PSD derived from RAK and KAP jointly are most accurate, followed closely by estimates derived from RAK alone. Estimates of PSD derived from KAP alone are the least accurate. Using a stochastic search approach, it is possible to cluster together certain dissimilar types of procedures to minimize the total error sum of squares.

Direct and simultaneous estimation of cardiac four chamber volumes by multioutput sparse regression.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhen, Xiantong; Zhang, Heye; Islam, Ali; Bhaduri, Mousumi; Chan, Ian; Li, Shuo

2017-02-01

Cardiac four-chamber volume estimation serves as a fundamental and crucial role in clinical quantitative analysis of whole heart functions. It is a challenging task due to the huge complexity of the four chambers including great appearance variations, huge shape deformation and interference between chambers. Direct estimation has recently emerged as an effective and convenient tool for cardiac ventricular volume estimation. However, existing direct estimation methods were specifically developed for one single ventricle, i.e., left ventricle (LV), or bi-ventricles; they can not be directly used for four chamber volume estimation due to the great combinatorial variability and highly complex anatomical interdependency of the four chambers. In this paper, we propose a new, general framework for direct and simultaneous four chamber volume estimation. We have addressed two key issues, i.e., cardiac image representation and simultaneous four chamber volume estimation, which enables accurate and efficient four-chamber volume estimation. We generate compact and discriminative image representations by supervised descriptor learning (SDL) which can remove irrelevant information and extract discriminative features. We propose direct and simultaneous four-chamber volume estimation by the multioutput sparse latent regression (MSLR), which enables jointly modeling nonlinear input-output relationships and capturing four-chamber interdependence. The proposed method is highly generalized, independent of imaging modalities, which provides a general regression framework that can be extensively used for clinical data prediction to achieve automated diagnosis. Experiments on both MR and CT images show that our method achieves high performance with a correlation coefficient of up to 0.921 with ground truth obtained manually by human experts, which is clinically significant and enables more accurate, convenient and comprehensive assessment of cardiac functions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier