WorldWideScience

Sample records for prototype forecast text

  1. Marine Text Forecasts and Products Listing

    Science.gov (United States)

    FQPZ23KWNO West Coast 06z, 18z FQAC23KWNO Artic Alaska 06z, 18z Computer-generated extratropical storm surge Water Levels Tsunami Coastal/Lakeshore Hazard Message; Storm Surge Forecasts Satellite Orbit Predictions Update (Storm #1) As required TCUAT2 (alt) Tropical Cyclone Update (Storm #2) As required TCUAT3 (alt

  2. Building a Prototype Text to Speech for Sanskrit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahananda, Baiju; Raju, C. M. S.; Patil, Ramalinga Reddy; Jha, Narayana; Varakhedi, Shrinivasa; Kishore, Prahallad

    This paper describes about the work done in building a prototype text to speech system for Sanskrit. A basic prototype text-to-speech is built using a simplified Sanskrit phone set, and employing a unit selection technique, where prerecorded sub-word units are concatenated to synthesize a sentence. We also discuss the issues involved in building a full-fledged text-to-speech for Sanskrit.

  3. Prototypes of risk-based flood forecasting systems in the Netherlands and Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bachmann D.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Flood forecasting, warning and emergency response are important components of flood management. Currently, the model-based prediction of discharge and/or water level in a river is common practice for operational flood forecasting. Based on the prediction of these values decisions about specific emergency measures are made within emergency response. However, the information provided for decision support is often restricted to pure hydrological or hydraulic aspects of a flood. Information about weak sections within the flood defences, flood prone areas and assets at risk in the protected areas are rarely used in current early warning and response systems. This information is often available for strategic planning, but is not in an appropriate format for operational purposes. This paper presents the extension of existing flood forecasting systems with elements of strategic flood risk analysis, such as probabilistic failure analysis, two dimensional flood spreading simulation and the analysis of flood impacts and consequences. This paper presents the first results from two prototype applications of the new developed concept: The first prototype is applied to the Rotterdam area situated in the western part of the Netherlands. The second pilot study focusses on a rural area between the cities of Mantua and Ferrara along the Po river (Italy.

  4. Text-Based On-Line Conferencing: A Conceptual and Empirical Analysis Using a Minimal Prototype.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarthy, John C.; And Others

    1993-01-01

    Analyzes requirements for text-based online conferencing through the use of a minimal prototype. Topics discussed include prototyping with a minimal system; text-based communication; the system as a message passer versus the system as a shared data structure; and three exercises that showed how users worked with the prototype. (Contains 61…

  5. Assessing uncertainties in flood forecasts for decision making: prototype of an operational flood management system integrating ensemble predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Dietrich

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Ensemble forecasts aim at framing the uncertainties of the potential future development of the hydro-meteorological situation. A probabilistic evaluation can be used to communicate forecast uncertainty to decision makers. Here an operational system for ensemble based flood forecasting is presented, which combines forecasts from the European COSMO-LEPS, SRNWP-PEPS and COSMO-DE prediction systems. A multi-model lagged average super-ensemble is generated by recombining members from different runs of these meteorological forecast systems. A subset of the super-ensemble is selected based on a priori model weights, which are obtained from ensemble calibration. Flood forecasts are simulated by the conceptual rainfall-runoff-model ArcEGMO. Parameter uncertainty of the model is represented by a parameter ensemble, which is a priori generated from a comprehensive uncertainty analysis during model calibration. The use of a computationally efficient hydrological model within a flood management system allows us to compute the hydro-meteorological model chain for all members of the sub-ensemble. The model chain is not re-computed before new ensemble forecasts are available, but the probabilistic assessment of the output is updated when new information from deterministic short range forecasts or from assimilation of measured data becomes available. For hydraulic modelling, with the desired result of a probabilistic inundation map with high spatial resolution, a replacement model can help to overcome computational limitations. A prototype of the developed framework has been applied for a case study in the Mulde river basin. However these techniques, in particular the probabilistic assessment and the derivation of decision rules are still in their infancy. Further research is necessary and promising.

  6. Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Rachel; Coelho, Caio AS; Barcellos, Christovam; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Catão, Rafael De Castro; Coelho, Giovanini E; Ramalho, Walter Massa; Bailey, Trevor C; Stephenson, David B; Rodó, Xavier

    2016-01-01

    Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.11285.001 PMID:26910315

  7. The development and evaluation of a hydrological seasonal forecast system prototype for predicting spring flood volumes in Swedish rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Kean; Bertacchi Uvo, Cintia; Olsson, Jonas

    2018-05-01

    Hydropower makes up nearly half of Sweden's electrical energy production. However, the distribution of the water resources is not aligned with demand, as most of the inflows to the reservoirs occur during the spring flood period. This means that carefully planned reservoir management is required to help redistribute water resources to ensure optimal production and accurate forecasts of the spring flood volume (SFV) is essential for this. The current operational SFV forecasts use a historical ensemble approach where the HBV model is forced with historical observations of precipitation and temperature. In this work we develop and test a multi-model prototype, building on previous work, and evaluate its ability to forecast the SFV in 84 sub-basins in northern Sweden. The hypothesis explored in this work is that a multi-model seasonal forecast system incorporating different modelling approaches is generally more skilful at forecasting the SFV in snow dominated regions than a forecast system that utilises only one approach. The testing is done using cross-validated hindcasts for the period 1981-2015 and the results are evaluated against both climatology and the current system to determine skill. Both the multi-model methods considered showed skill over the reference forecasts. The version that combined the historical modelling chain, dynamical modelling chain, and statistical modelling chain performed better than the other and was chosen for the prototype. The prototype was able to outperform the current operational system 57 % of the time on average and reduce the error in the SFV by ˜ 6 % across all sub-basins and forecast dates.

  8. Making texts in electronic health records comprehensible to consumers: a prototype translator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng-Treitler, Qing; Goryachev, Sergey; Kim, Hyeoneui; Keselman, Alla; Rosendale, Douglas

    2007-10-11

    Narrative reports from electronic health records are a major source of content for personal health records. We designed and implemented a prototype text translator to make these reports more comprehensible to consumers. The translator identifies difficult terms, replaces them with easier synonyms, and generates and inserts explanatory texts for them. In feasibility testing, the application was used to translate 9 clinical reports. Majority (68.8%) of text replacements and insertions were deemed correct and helpful by expert review. User evaluation demonstrated a non-statistically significant trend toward better comprehension when translation is provided (p=0.15).

  9. Neural networks-based operational prototype for flash flood forecasting: application to Liane flash floods (France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bertin Dominique

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The Liane River is a small costal river, famous for its floods, which can affect the city of Boulogne-sur-Mer. Due to the complexity of land cover and hydrologic processes, a black-box non-linear modelling was chosen using neural networks. The multilayer perceptron model, known for its property of universal approximation is thus chosen. Four models were designed, each one for one forecasting horizon using rainfall forecasts: 24h, 12h, 6h, 3h. The desired output of the model is original: it represents the maximal value of the water level respectively 24h, 12h, 6h, 3h ahead. Working with best forecasts of rain (the observed ones during the event in the past, on the major flood of the database in test set, the model provides excellent forecasts. Nash criteria calculated for the four lead times are 0.98 (3h, 0.97 (6h, 0.91 (12h, 0.89 (24h. Designed models were thus estimated as efficient enough to be implemented in a specific tool devoted to real time operational use. The software tool is described hereafter: designed in Java, it presents a friendly interface allowing applying various scenarios of future rainfalls, and a graphical visualization of the predicted maximum water levels and their associated real time observed values.

  10. Scaffolding Students’ Independent Decoding of Unfamiliar Text with a Prototype of an eBook-feature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stig T Gissel

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This study was undertaken to design, evaluate and refine an eBook-feature that supports students’ decoding of unfamiliar text. The feature supports students’ independent reading of eBooks with text-to-speech, graded support in the form of syllabification and rhyme analogy, and by dividing the word material into different categories based on the frequency and regularity of the word or its constituent parts. The eBook-feature is based on connectionist models of reading and reading acquisition and the theory of scaffolding. Students are supported in mapping between spelling and sound, in identifying the relevant spelling patterns and in generalizing, in order to strengthen their decoding skills. The prototype was evaluated with Danish students in the second grade to see how and under what circumstances students can use the feature in ways that strengthen their decoding skills and support them in reading unfamiliar text. It was found that most students could interact with the eBook-material in ways that the envisioned learning trajectory in the study predicts are beneficial in strengthening their decoding skills. The study contributes with both principles for designing digital learning material with supportive features for decoding unfamiliar text and with a concrete proposal for a design. The perspectives for making reading acquisition more differentiated and meaningful for second graders in languages with irregular spelling are discussed.

  11. Forecast of TEXT plasma disruptions using soft X rays as input signal in a neural network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vannucci, A.; Oliveira, K.A.; Tajima, T.

    1999-01-01

    A feedforward neural network with two hidden layers is used to forecast major and minor disruptive instabilities in TEXT tokamak discharges. Using the experimental data of soft X ray signals as input data, the neural network is trained with one disruptive plasma discharge, and a different disruptive discharge is used for validation. After being properly trained, the networks, with the same set of weights, are used to forecast disruptions in two other plasma discharges. It is observed that the neural network is able to predict the occurrence of a disruption more than 3 ms in advance. This time interval is almost 3 times longer than the one already obtained previously when a magnetic signal from a Mirnov coil was used to feed the neural networks. Visually no indication of an upcoming disruption is seen from the experimental data this far back from the time of disruption. Finally, by observing the predictive behaviour of the network for the disruptive discharges analysed and comparing the soft X ray data with the corresponding magnetic experimental signal, it is conjectured about where inside the plasma column the disruption first started. (author)

  12. A Prototype Regional GSI-based EnKF-Variational Hybrid Data Assimilation System for the Rapid Refresh Forecasting System: Dual-Resolution Implementation and Testing Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Yujie; Xue, Ming; Zhu, Kefeng; Wang, Mingjun

    2018-05-01

    A dual-resolution (DR) version of a regional ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF)-3D ensemble variational (3DEnVar) coupled hybrid data assimilation system is implemented as a prototype for the operational Rapid Refresh forecasting system. The DR 3DEnVar system combines a high-resolution (HR) deterministic background forecast with lower-resolution (LR) EnKF ensemble perturbations used for flow-dependent background error covariance to produce a HR analysis. The computational cost is substantially reduced by running the ensemble forecasts and EnKF analyses at LR. The DR 3DEnVar system is tested with 3-h cycles over a 9-day period using a 40/˜13-km grid spacing combination. The HR forecasts from the DR hybrid analyses are compared with forecasts launched from HR Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) 3D variational (3DVar) analyses, and single LR hybrid analyses interpolated to the HR grid. With the DR 3DEnVar system, a 90% weight for the ensemble covariance yields the lowest forecast errors and the DR hybrid system clearly outperforms the HR GSI 3DVar. Humidity and wind forecasts are also better than those launched from interpolated LR hybrid analyses, but the temperature forecasts are slightly worse. The humidity forecasts are improved most. For precipitation forecasts, the DR 3DEnVar always outperforms HR GSI 3DVar. It also outperforms the LR 3DEnVar, except for the initial forecast period and lower thresholds.

  13. Scaffolding Students’ Independent Decoding of Unfamiliar Text with a Prototype of an eBook-Feature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gissel, Stig Toke

    2015-01-01

    the relevant spelling patterns and in generalizing, in order to strengthen their decoding skills. The prototype was evaluated with Danish students in the second grade to see how and under what circumstances students can use the feature in ways that strengthen their decoding skills and support them in reading...

  14. D6.2–Load and generation forecasting methods and prototypes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Per Printz; Dueñas, Lara Pérez; Moraga, Carlos Castaño

    . Most existing suppliers use anyway some kind of statistical approach to make the energy prediction. In the market there are few but strong providers of such services, and it has been preferred to use an external provider rather than developing ENCOURAGE’s own energy production algorithm. The external...... service chosen belongs to one of the partners of the consortium (Gnarum), so tests have been carried on to adapt the forecasting methods to the distributed small-scale generation case, with satisfactory results....

  15. Forecast of TEXT plasma disruptions using soft X-rays as input signal in a neural network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vannucci, A.; Oliveira, K.A.; Tajima, T.; Tajima, Y.J.

    2001-01-01

    A feed-forward neural network is used to forecast major and minor disruptions in TEXT tokamak discharges. Using the experimental data of soft X-ray signals as input data, the neural net is trained with one disruptive plasma discharge, while a different disruptive discharge is used for validation. After proper training, the net works with the same set of weights, it is then used to forecast disruptions in two other different plasma discharges. It is observed that the neural net is capable of predicting the onset of a disruption up to 3.12 ms in advance. From what we observe in the predictive behavior of our network, speculations are made whether the disruption triggering mechanism is associated with an increase in the m=2 magnetic island, that disturbs the central part of the plasma column afterwards, or the initial perturbation has first occurred in the central part of the plasma column and then the m=2 MHD mode is destabilized. (author)

  16. An Open-Book Modular Watershed Modeling Framework for Rapid Prototyping of GPM- based Flood Forecasting in International River Basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katiyar, N.; Hossain, F.

    2006-05-01

    Floods have always been disastrous for human life. It accounts for about 15 % of the total death related to natural disasters. There are around 263 transboundary river basins listed by UNESCO, wherein at least 30 countries have more than 95% of their territory locked in one or more such transboundary basins. For flood forecasting in the lower riparian nations of these International River Basins (IRBs), real-time rainfall data from upstream nations is naturally the most critical factor governing the forecasting effectiveness. However, many upstream nations fail to provide data to the lower riparian nations due to a lack of in-situ rainfall measurement infrastructure or a lack of a treaty for real-time sharing of rainfall data. A potential solution is therefore to use satellites that inherently measure rainfall across political boundaries. NASA's proposed Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission appears very promising in providing this vital rainfall information under the data- limited scenario that will continue to prevail in most IRBs. However, satellite rainfall is associated with uncertainty and hence, proper characterization of the satellite rainfall error propagation in hydrologic models for flood forecasting is a critical priority that should be resolved in the coming years in anticipation of GPM. In this study, we assess an open book modular watershed modeling approach for estimating the expected error in flood forecasting related to GPM rainfall data. Our motivation stems from the critical challenge in identifying the specific IRBs that would benefit from a pre-programmed satellite-based forecasting system in anticipation of GPM. As the number of flood-prone IRBs is large, conventional data-intensive implementation of existing physically-based distributed hydrologic models on case-by-case IRBs is considered time-consuming for completing such a global assessment. A more parsimonious approach is justified at the expense of a tolerable loss of detail and

  17. Parametric decadal climate forecast recalibration (DeFoReSt 1.0

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Pasternack

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Near-term climate predictions such as decadal climate forecasts are increasingly being used to guide adaptation measures. For near-term probabilistic predictions to be useful, systematic errors of the forecasting systems have to be corrected. While methods for the calibration of probabilistic forecasts are readily available, these have to be adapted to the specifics of decadal climate forecasts including the long time horizon of decadal climate forecasts, lead-time-dependent systematic errors (drift and the errors in the representation of long-term changes and variability. These features are compounded by small ensemble sizes to describe forecast uncertainty and a relatively short period for which typically pairs of reforecasts and observations are available to estimate calibration parameters. We introduce the Decadal Climate Forecast Recalibration Strategy (DeFoReSt, a parametric approach to recalibrate decadal ensemble forecasts that takes the above specifics into account. DeFoReSt optimizes forecast quality as measured by the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS. Using a toy model to generate synthetic forecast observation pairs, we demonstrate the positive effect on forecast quality in situations with pronounced and limited predictability. Finally, we apply DeFoReSt to decadal surface temperature forecasts from the MiKlip prototype system and find consistent, and sometimes considerable, improvements in forecast quality compared with a simple calibration of the lead-time-dependent systematic errors.

  18. Optimization of the Costs and the Safety of Maritime Transport by Routing: The use of Currents Forecast in the Routing of Racing Sail Boats as a Prototype of Rout Optimization for Trading Ships

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theunynck, Denis; Peze, Thierry; Toumazou, Vincent; Zunquin, Gauthier; Cohen, Olivier; Monges, Arnaud

    2005-03-01

    It is interesting to see whether the model of routing designed for races and great Navy operations could be transferred to commercial navigation and if so, within which framework.Sail boat routing conquered its letters of nobility during great races like the « Route du Rhum » or the transatlantic race « Jacques Vabre ». It is the ultimate stage of the step begun by the Navy at the time of great operations, like D-day (Overlord )June 6, 1944, in Normandy1.Routing is, from the beginning, mainly based on statistical knowledge and weather forecast, but with the recent availability of reliable currents forecast, sail boats routers and/or skippers now have to learn how to use both winds and currents to obtain the best performance, that is to travel between two points in the shortest time possible in acceptable security conditions.Are the currents forecast only useful to racing sail boat ? Of course not, they are a great help to fisherman for whom the knowledge of currents is also the knowledge of sea temperature who indicates the probability of fish presence. They are also used in offshore work to predict the hardness of the sea during operation.A less developed field of application is the route optimization of trading ships. The idea is to optimize the use of currents to increase the relative speed of ships with no augmentation of fuel expense. This new field will require that currents forecasters learn about the specific needs of another type of clients. There is also a need of teaching because the future customers will have to learn how to use the information they will get.At this point, the introduction of the use of currents forecast in racing sail boats routing is only the first step. It is of great interest because it can rely on a high knowledge in routing.The main difference is of course that the wind direction and its force are of greater importance to a sail boat that they are for a trading ship for whom the point of interest will be the fuel consumption

  19. Architectural prototyping

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bardram, Jakob Eyvind; Christensen, Henrik Bærbak; Hansen, Klaus Marius

    2004-01-01

    A major part of software architecture design is learning how specific architectural designs balance the concerns of stakeholders. We explore the notion of "architectural prototypes", correspondingly architectural prototyping, as a means of using executable prototypes to investigate stakeholders...

  20. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Pierdzioch

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time.

  1. Collaborative Prototyping

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bogers, Marcel; Horst, Willem

    2014-01-01

    of the prototyping process, the actual prototype was used as a tool for communication or development, thus serving as a platform for the cross-fertilization of knowledge. In this way, collaborative prototyping leads to a better balance between functionality and usability; it translates usability problems into design......This paper presents an inductive study that shows how collaborative prototyping across functional, hierarchical, and organizational boundaries can improve the overall prototyping process. Our combined action research and case study approach provides new insights into how collaborative prototyping...... can provide a platform for prototype-driven problem solving in early new product development (NPD). Our findings have important implications for how to facilitate multistakeholder collaboration in prototyping and problem solving, and more generally for how to organize collaborative and open innovation...

  2. Prototyping Practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramsgaard Thomsen, Mette; Tamke, Martin

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the role of the prototyping in digital architecture. During the past decade, a new research field has emerged exploring the digital technology’s impact on the way we think, design and build our environment. In this practice the prototype, the pavilion, installation or demonstr......This paper examines the role of the prototyping in digital architecture. During the past decade, a new research field has emerged exploring the digital technology’s impact on the way we think, design and build our environment. In this practice the prototype, the pavilion, installation...

  3. Forecast Combinations

    OpenAIRE

    Timmermann, Allan G

    2005-01-01

    Forecast combinations have frequently been found in empirical studies to produce better forecasts on average than methods based on the ex-ante best individual forecasting model. Moreover, simple combinations that ignore correlations between forecast errors often dominate more refined combination schemes aimed at estimating the theoretically optimal combination weights. In this paper we analyse theoretically the factors that determine the advantages from combining forecasts (for example, the d...

  4. Forecast combinations

    OpenAIRE

    Aiolfi, Marco; Capistrán, Carlos; Timmermann, Allan

    2010-01-01

    We consider combinations of subjective survey forecasts and model-based forecasts from linear and non-linear univariate specifications as well as multivariate factor-augmented models. Empirical results suggest that a simple equal-weighted average of survey forecasts outperform the best model-based forecasts for a majority of macroeconomic variables and forecast horizons. Additional improvements can in some cases be gained by using a simple equal-weighted average of survey and model-based fore...

  5. Unikabeton Prototype

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søndergaard, Asbjørn; Dombernowsky, Per

    2011-01-01

    The Unikabeton prototype structure was developed as the finalization of the cross-disciplinary research project Unikabeton, exploring the architectural potential in linking the computational process of topology optimisation with robot fabrication of concrete casting moulds. The project was elabor......The Unikabeton prototype structure was developed as the finalization of the cross-disciplinary research project Unikabeton, exploring the architectural potential in linking the computational process of topology optimisation with robot fabrication of concrete casting moulds. The project...... of Architecture was to develop a series of optimisation experiments, concluding in the design and optimisation of a full scale prototype concrete structure....

  6. Solution Prototype

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Efeoglu, Arkin; Møller, Charles; Serie, Michel

    2013-01-01

    This paper outlines an artifact building and evaluation proposal. Design Science Research (DSR) studies usually consider encapsulated artifact that have relationships with other artifacts. The solution prototype as a composed artifact demands for a more comprehensive consideration in its systematic...... environment. The solution prototype that is composed from blending product and service prototype has particular impacts on the dualism of DSR’s “Build” and “Evaluate”. Since the mix between product and service prototyping can be varied, there is a demand for a more agile and iterative framework. Van de Ven......’s research framework seems to fit this purpose. Van de Ven allows for an iterative research approach to problem solving with flexible starting point. The research activity is the result between the iteration of two dimensions. This framework focuses on the natural evaluation, particularly on ex...

  7. Forecasting Skill

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-01-01

    for the third and fourth day precipitation forecasts. A marked improvement was shown for the consensus 24 hour precipitation forecast, and small... Zuckerberg (1980) found a small long term skill increase in forecasts of heavy snow events for nine eastern cities. Other National Weather Service...and maximum temperature) are each awarded marks 2, 1, or 0 according to whether the forecast is correct, 8 - *- -**■*- ———"—- - -■ t0m 1 MM—IB I

  8. Software Prototyping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Fiol, Guilherme; Hanseler, Haley; Crouch, Barbara Insley; Cummins, Mollie R.

    2016-01-01

    Summary Background Health information exchange (HIE) between Poison Control Centers (PCCs) and Emergency Departments (EDs) could improve care of poisoned patients. However, PCC information systems are not designed to facilitate HIE with EDs; therefore, we are developing specialized software to support HIE within the normal workflow of the PCC using user-centered design and rapid prototyping. Objective To describe the design of an HIE dashboard and the refinement of user requirements through rapid prototyping. Methods Using previously elicited user requirements, we designed low-fidelity sketches of designs on paper with iterative refinement. Next, we designed an interactive high-fidelity prototype and conducted scenario-based usability tests with end users. Users were asked to think aloud while accomplishing tasks related to a case vignette. After testing, the users provided feedback and evaluated the prototype using the System Usability Scale (SUS). Results Survey results from three users provided useful feedback that was then incorporated into the design. After achieving a stable design, we used the prototype itself as the specification for development of the actual software. Benefits of prototyping included having 1) subject-matter experts heavily involved with the design; 2) flexibility to make rapid changes, 3) the ability to minimize software development efforts early in the design stage; 4) rapid finalization of requirements; 5) early visualization of designs; 6) and a powerful vehicle for communication of the design to the programmers. Challenges included 1) time and effort to develop the prototypes and case scenarios; 2) no simulation of system performance; 3) not having all proposed functionality available in the final product; and 4) missing needed data elements in the PCC information system. PMID:27081404

  9. Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Bai

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies.

  10. Load forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mak, H.

    1995-01-01

    Slides used in a presentation at The Power of Change Conference in Vancouver, BC in April 1995 about the changing needs for load forecasting were presented. Technological innovations and population increase were said to be the prime driving forces behind the changing needs in load forecasting. Structural changes, market place changes, electricity supply planning changes, and changes in planning objectives were other factors discussed. It was concluded that load forecasting was a form of information gathering, that provided important market intelligence

  11. Recent advances in flood forecasting and flood risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Arduino

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent large floods in Europe have led to increased interest in research and development of flood forecasting systems. Some of these events have been provoked by some of the wettest rainfall periods on record which has led to speculation that such extremes are attributable in some measure to anthropogenic global warming and represent the beginning of a period of higher flood frequency. Whilst current trends in extreme event statistics will be difficult to discern, conclusively, there has been a substantial increase in the frequency of high floods in the 20th century for basins greater than 2x105 km2. There is also increasing that anthropogenic forcing of climate change may lead to an increased probability of extreme precipitation and, hence, of flooding. There is, therefore, major emphasis on the improvement of operational flood forecasting systems in Europe, with significant European Community spending on research and development on prototype forecasting systems and flood risk management projects. This Special Issue synthesises the most relevant scientific and technological results presented at the International Conference on Flood Forecasting in Europe held in Rotterdam from 3-5 March 2003. During that meeting 150 scientists, forecasters and stakeholders from four continents assembled to present their work and current operational best practice and to discuss future directions of scientific and technological efforts in flood prediction and prevention. The papers presented at the conference fall into seven themes, as follows.

  12. PANDA Muon System Prototype

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abazov Victor

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The PANDA Experiment will be one of the key experiments at the Facility for Antiproton and Ion Research (FAIR which is under construction now in the territory of the GSI Helmholtz Centre for Heavy Ion Research in Darmstadt, Germany. PANDA is aimed to study hadron spectroscopy and various topics of the weak and strong forces. Muon System is chosen as the most suitable technology for detecting the muons. The Prototype of the PANDA Muon System is installed on the test beam line T9 at the Proton Synchrotron (PS at CERN. Status of the PANDA Muon System prototype is presented with few preliminary results.

  13. LINKS to NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARINE FORECAST OFFICES

    Science.gov (United States)

    ; Organization Search Search Landlubber's forecast: "City, St" or zip code (Pan/Zoom for Marine) Search SERVICE MARINE FORECAST OFFICES (Click on the NWS Forecast Center/Office of interest to link to that Marine Forecasts in text form ) Coastal NWS Forecast Offices have regionally focused marine webpages

  14. Probabilistic forecasting of shallow, rainfall-triggered landslides using real-time numerical weather predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Schmidt

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available A project established at the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA in New Zealand is aimed at developing a prototype of a real-time landslide forecasting system. The objective is to predict temporal changes in landslide probability for shallow, rainfall-triggered landslides, based on quantitative weather forecasts from numerical weather prediction models. Global weather forecasts from the United Kingdom Met Office (MO Numerical Weather Prediction model (NWP are coupled with a regional data assimilating NWP model (New Zealand Limited Area Model, NZLAM to forecast atmospheric variables such as precipitation and temperature up to 48 h ahead for all of New Zealand. The weather forecasts are fed into a hydrologic model to predict development of soil moisture and groundwater levels. The forecasted catchment-scale patterns in soil moisture and soil saturation are then downscaled using topographic indices to predict soil moisture status at the local scale, and an infinite slope stability model is applied to determine the triggering soil water threshold at a local scale. The model uses uncertainty of soil parameters to produce probabilistic forecasts of spatio-temporal landslide occurrence 48~h ahead. The system was evaluated for a damaging landslide event in New Zealand. Comparison with landslide densities estimated from satellite imagery resulted in hit rates of 70–90%.

  15. Exposure Forecaster

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Exposure Forecaster Database (ExpoCastDB) is EPA's database for aggregating chemical exposure information and can be used to help with chemical exposure...

  16. Strategic Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this article is to present an overview of the area of strategic forecasting and its research directions and to put forward some ideas for improving management decisions. Design/methodology/approach: This article is conceptual but also informed by the author’s long contact...... and collaboration with various business firms. It starts by presenting an overview of the area and argues that the area is as much a way of thinking as a toolbox of theories and methodologies. It then spells out a number of research directions and ideas for management. Findings: Strategic forecasting is seen...... as a rebirth of long range planning, albeit with new methods and theories. Firms should make the building of strategic forecasting capability a priority. Research limitations/implications: The article subdivides strategic forecasting into three research avenues and suggests avenues for further research efforts...

  17. Forecasting metal prices: Do forecasters herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pierdzioch, C.; Rulke, J. C.; Stadtmann, G.

    2013-01-01

    We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters...

  18. Entity’s Irregular Demand Scheduling of the Wholesale Electricity Market based on the Forecast of Hourly Price Ratios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. V. Russkov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article considers a hot issue to forecast electric power demand amounts and prices for the entities of wholesale electricity market (WEM, which are in capacity of a large user with production technology requirements prevailing over hourly energy planning ones. An electric power demand of such entities is on irregular schedule. The article analyses mathematical models, currently applied to forecast demand amounts and prices. It describes limits of time-series models and fundamental ones in case of hourly forecasting an irregular demand schedule of the electricity market entity. The features of electricity trading at WEM are carefully analysed. Factors that influence on irregularity of demand schedule of the metallurgical plant are shown. The article proposes method for the qualitative forecast of market price ratios as a tool to reduce a dependence on the accuracy of forecasting an irregular schedule of demand. It describes the differences between the offered method and the similar ones considered in research studies and scholarly works. The correlation between price ratios and relaxation in the requirements for the forecast accuracy of the electric power consumption is analysed. The efficiency function of forecast method is derived. The article puts an increased focus on description of the mathematical model based on the method of qualitative forecast. It shows main model parameters and restrictions the electricity market imposes on them. The model prototype is described as a programme module. Methods to assess an effectiveness of the proposed forecast model are examined. The positive test results of the model using JSC «Volzhsky Pipe Plant» data are given. A conclusion is drawn concerning the possibility to decrease dependence on the forecast accuracy of irregular schedule of entity’s demand at WEM. The effective trading tool has been found for the entities of irregular demand schedule at WEM. The tool application allows minimizing cost

  19. Using inferred probabilities to measure the accuracy of imprecise forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Lehner

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Research on forecasting is effectively limited to forecasts that are expressed with clarity; which is to say that the forecasted event must be sufficiently well-defined so that it can be clearly resolved whether or not the event occurred and forecasts certainties are expressed as quantitative probabilities. When forecasts are expressed with clarity, then quantitative measures (scoring rules, calibration, discrimination, etc. can be used to measure forecast accuracy, which in turn can be used to measure the comparative accuracy of different forecasting methods. Unfortunately most real world forecasts are not expressed clearly. This lack of clarity extends to both the description of the forecast event and to the use of vague language to express forecast certainty. It is thus difficult to assess the accuracy of most real world forecasts, and consequently the accuracy the methods used to generate real world forecasts. This paper addresses this deficiency by presenting an approach to measuring the accuracy of imprecise real world forecasts using the same quantitative metrics routinely used to measure the accuracy of well-defined forecasts. To demonstrate applicability, the Inferred Probability Method is applied to measure the accuracy of forecasts in fourteen documents examining complex political domains. Key words: inferred probability, imputed probability, judgment-based forecasting, forecast accuracy, imprecise forecasts, political forecasting, verbal probability, probability calibration.

  20. Flood Forecasting Based on TIGGE Precipitation Ensemble Forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinyin Ye

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available TIGGE (THORPEX International Grand Global Ensemble was a major part of the THORPEX (Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment. It integrates ensemble precipitation products from all the major forecast centers in the world and provides systematic evaluation on the multimodel ensemble prediction system. Development of meteorologic-hydrologic coupled flood forecasting model and early warning model based on the TIGGE precipitation ensemble forecast can provide flood probability forecast, extend the lead time of the flood forecast, and gain more time for decision-makers to make the right decision. In this study, precipitation ensemble forecast products from ECMWF, NCEP, and CMA are used to drive distributed hydrologic model TOPX. We focus on Yi River catchment and aim to build a flood forecast and early warning system. The results show that the meteorologic-hydrologic coupled model can satisfactorily predict the flow-process of four flood events. The predicted occurrence time of peak discharges is close to the observations. However, the magnitude of the peak discharges is significantly different due to various performances of the ensemble prediction systems. The coupled forecasting model can accurately predict occurrence of the peak time and the corresponding risk probability of peak discharge based on the probability distribution of peak time and flood warning, which can provide users a strong theoretical foundation and valuable information as a promising new approach.

  1. Forecast Combination under Heavy-Tailed Errors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gang Cheng

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Forecast combination has been proven to be a very important technique to obtain accurate predictions for various applications in economics, finance, marketing and many other areas. In many applications, forecast errors exhibit heavy-tailed behaviors for various reasons. Unfortunately, to our knowledge, little has been done to obtain reliable forecast combinations for such situations. The familiar forecast combination methods, such as simple average, least squares regression or those based on the variance-covariance of the forecasts, may perform very poorly due to the fact that outliers tend to occur, and they make these methods have unstable weights, leading to un-robust forecasts. To address this problem, in this paper, we propose two nonparametric forecast combination methods. One is specially proposed for the situations in which the forecast errors are strongly believed to have heavy tails that can be modeled by a scaled Student’s t-distribution; the other is designed for relatively more general situations when there is a lack of strong or consistent evidence on the tail behaviors of the forecast errors due to a shortage of data and/or an evolving data-generating process. Adaptive risk bounds of both methods are developed. They show that the resulting combined forecasts yield near optimal mean forecast errors relative to the candidate forecasts. Simulations and a real example demonstrate their superior performance in that they indeed tend to have significantly smaller prediction errors than the previous combination methods in the presence of forecast outliers.

  2. Wet snow hazard for power lines: a forecast and alert system applied in Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Bonelli

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Wet snow icing accretion on power lines is a real problem in Italy, causing failures on high and medium voltage power supplies during the cold season. The phenomenon is a process in which many large and local scale variables contribute in a complex way and not completely understood. A numerical weather forecast can be used to select areas where wet snow accretion has an high probability of occurring, but a specific accretion model must also be used to estimate the load of an ice sleeve and its hazard. All the information must be carefully selected and shown to the electric grid operator in order to warn him promptly.

    The authors describe a prototype of forecast and alert system, WOLF (Wet snow Overload aLert and Forecast, developed and applied in Italy. The prototype elaborates the output of a numerical weather prediction model, as temperature, precipitation, wind intensity and direction, to determine the areas of potential risk for the power lines. Then an accretion model computes the ice sleeves' load for different conductor diameters. The highest values are selected and displayed on a WEB-GIS application principally devoted to the electric operator, but also to more expert users. Some experimental field campaigns have been conducted to better parameterize the accretion model. Comparisons between real accidents and forecasted icing conditions are presented and discussed.

  3. Forecasting Interest Rates Using Geostatistical Techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuseppe Arbia

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Geostatistical spatial models are widely used in many applied fields to forecast data observed on continuous three-dimensional surfaces. We propose to extend their use to finance and, in particular, to forecasting yield curves. We present the results of an empirical application where we apply the proposed method to forecast Euro Zero Rates (2003–2014 using the Ordinary Kriging method based on the anisotropic variogram. Furthermore, a comparison with other recent methods for forecasting yield curves is proposed. The results show that the model is characterized by good levels of predictions’ accuracy and it is competitive with the other forecasting models considered.

  4. Load forecasting method considering temperature effect for distribution network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meng Xiao Fang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available To improve the accuracy of load forecasting, the temperature factor was introduced into the load forecasting in this paper. This paper analyzed the characteristics of power load variation, and researched the rule of the load with the temperature change. Based on the linear regression analysis, the mathematical model of load forecasting was presented with considering the temperature effect, and the steps of load forecasting were given. Used MATLAB, the temperature regression coefficient was calculated. Using the load forecasting model, the full-day load forecasting and time-sharing load forecasting were carried out. By comparing and analyzing the forecast error, the results showed that the error of time-sharing load forecasting method was small in this paper. The forecasting method is an effective method to improve the accuracy of load forecasting.

  5. Black Sea coastal forecasting system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. I. Kubryakov

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The Black Sea coastal nowcasting and forecasting system was built within the framework of EU FP6 ECOOP (European COastalshelf sea OPerational observing and forecasting system project for five regions: the south-western basin along the coasts of Bulgaria and Turkey, the north-western shelf along the Romanian and Ukrainian coasts, coastal zone around of the Crimea peninsula, the north-eastern Russian coastal zone and the coastal zone of Georgia. The system operates in the real-time mode during the ECOOP project and afterwards. The forecasts include temperature, salinity and current velocity fields. Ecosystem model operates in the off-line mode near the Crimea coast.

  6. Text Mining.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trybula, Walter J.

    1999-01-01

    Reviews the state of research in text mining, focusing on newer developments. The intent is to describe the disparate investigations currently included under the term text mining and provide a cohesive structure for these efforts. A summary of research identifies key organizations responsible for pushing the development of text mining. A section…

  7. Forecasting with Dynamic Regression Models

    CERN Document Server

    Pankratz, Alan

    2012-01-01

    One of the most widely used tools in statistical forecasting, single equation regression models is examined here. A companion to the author's earlier work, Forecasting with Univariate Box-Jenkins Models: Concepts and Cases, the present text pulls together recent time series ideas and gives special attention to possible intertemporal patterns, distributed lag responses of output to input series and the auto correlation patterns of regression disturbance. It also includes six case studies.

  8. Rethink! prototyping transdisciplinary concepts of prototyping

    CERN Document Server

    Nagy, Emilia; Stark, Rainer

    2016-01-01

    In this book, the authors describe the findings derived from interaction and cooperation between scientific actors employing diverse practices. They reflect on distinct prototyping concepts and examine the transformation of development culture in their fusion to hybrid approaches and solutions. The products of tomorrow are going to be multifunctional, interactive systems – and already are to some degree today. Collaboration across multiple disciplines is the only way to grasp their complexity in design concepts. This underscores the importance of reconsidering the prototyping process for the development of these systems, particularly in transdisciplinary research teams. “Rethinking Prototyping – new hybrid concepts for prototyping” was a transdisciplinary project that took up this challenge. The aim of this programmatic rethinking was to come up with a general concept of prototyping by combining innovative prototyping concepts, which had been researched and developed in three sub-projects: “Hybrid P...

  9. Architectures of prototypes and architectural prototyping

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Klaus Marius; Christensen, Michael; Sandvad, Elmer

    1998-01-01

    together as a team, but developed a prototype that more than fulfilled the expectations of the shipping company. The prototype should: - complete the first major phase within 10 weeks, - be highly vertical illustrating future work practice, - continuously live up to new requirements from prototyping......This paper reports from experience obtained through development of a prototype of a global customer service system in a project involving a large shipping company and a university research group. The research group had no previous knowledge of the complex business of shipping and had never worked...... sessions with users, - evolve over a long period of time to contain more functionality - allow for 6-7 developers working intensively in parallel. Explicit focus on the software architecture and letting the architecture evolve with the prototype played a major role in resolving these conflicting...

  10. kosh Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kpdt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kewr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kiso Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kpga Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kbkw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. ktcl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. pgwt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kpsp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kbih Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kdnl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kart Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kilm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kpne Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kabi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. ptpn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kblf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. panc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kpbi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kgdv Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kcmx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kdls Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. koaj Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. krhi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kbpk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. khuf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kbpi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. ktrk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kwmc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. katy Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. tjmz Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kdet Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kcxp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kbur Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. krkd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. pawg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kloz Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kcec Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kdec Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. paor Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kavl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kdrt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kstl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kbfi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. khsv Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. pafa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kekn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. tncm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kith Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kgnv Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. ktoi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kgso Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. nstu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kmgm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. khib Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. pavd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kfar Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kluk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kwwr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. klse Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. ksts Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. koth Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kbfl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

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  3. pabt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. krdg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. khdn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kjac Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kphx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. Robust forecast comparison

    OpenAIRE

    Jin, Sainan; Corradi, Valentina; Swanson, Norman

    2015-01-01

    Forecast accuracy is typically measured in terms of a given loss function. However, as a consequence of the use of misspecified models in multiple model comparisons, relative forecast rankings are loss function dependent. This paper addresses this issue by using a novel criterion for forecast evaluation which is based on the entire distribution of forecast errors. We introduce the concepts of general-loss (GL) forecast superiority and convex-loss (CL) forecast superiority, and we establish a ...

  9. Forecaster Behaviour and Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    Roy Batchelor

    2007-01-01

    This paper documents the presence of systematic bias in the real GDP and inflation forecasts of private sector forecasters in the G7 economies in the years 1990–2005. The data come from the monthly Consensus Economics forecasting service, and bias is measured and tested for significance using parametric fixed effect panel regressions and nonparametric tests on accuracy ranks. We examine patterns across countries and forecasters to establish whether the bias reflects the inefficient use of i...

  10. Forecasting military expenditure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias Böhmelt

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available To what extent do frequently cited determinants of military spending allow us to predict and forecast future levels of expenditure? The authors draw on the data and specifications of a recent model on military expenditure and assess the predictive power of its variables using in-sample predictions, out-of-sample forecasts and Bayesian model averaging. To this end, this paper provides guidelines for prediction exercises in general using these three techniques. More substantially, however, the findings emphasize that previous levels of military spending as well as a country’s institutional and economic characteristics particularly improve our ability to predict future levels of investment in the military. Variables pertaining to the international security environment also matter, but seem less important. In addition, the results highlight that the updated model, which drops weak predictors, is not only more parsimonious, but also slightly more accurate than the original specification.

  11. Weather forecast

    CERN Document Server

    Courtier, P

    1994-02-07

    Weather prediction is performed using the numerical model of the atmosphere evolution.The evolution equations are derived from the Navier Stokes equation for the adiabatic part but the are very much complicated by the change of phase of water, the radiation porocess and the boundary layer.The technique used operationally is described. Weather prediction is an initial value problem and accurate initial conditions need to be specified. Due to the small number of observations available (105 ) as compared to the dimension of the model state variable (107),the problem is largely underdetermined. Techniques of optimal control and inverse problems are used and have been adapted to the large dimension of our problem. our problem.The at mosphere is a chaotic system; the implication for weather prediction is discussed. Ensemble prediction is used operationally and the technique for generating initial conditions which lead to a numerical divergence of the subsequent forecasts is described.

  12. Live Piloting and Prototyping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesca Rizzo

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents current trends in service design research concerning large scale projects aimed at generating changes at a local scale. The strategy adopted to achieve this, is to co-design solutions including future users in the development process, prototyping and testing system of products and services before their actual implementation. On the basis of experience achieved in the European Project Life 2.0, this paper discusses which methods and competencies are applied in the development of these projects, eliciting the lessons learnt especially from the piloting phase in which the participatory design (PD approach plays a major role. In the first part, the topic is introduced jointly with the theoretical background where the user center design and participatory design methods are presented; then the Life 2.0 project development is described; finally the experience is discussed from a service design perspective, eliciting guidelines for piloting and prototyping services in a real context of use. The paper concludes reflecting on the designers’ role and competencies needed in this process.

  13. SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF MORTGAGE LENDING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina V. Orlova

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The article considers the methodological and algorithmic problems arising in modeling and forecasting of time series of mortgage loans. Focuses on the processes of formation of the levels of time series of mortgage loans and the problem of choice and identification of models in the conditions of small samples. For forecasting options are selected and implemented a model of autoregressive and moving average, which allowed to obtain reliable forecasts.

  14. Brachial Plexus Blocker Prototype

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stéphanie Coelho Monteiro

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Although the area of surgical simulation has been the subject of study in recent years, it is still necessary to develop artificial experimental models with a perspective to dismiss the use of biological models. Since this makes the simulators more real, transferring the environment of the health professional to a physical or virtual reality, an anesthetic prototype has been developed, where the motor response is replicated when the brachial plexus is subjected to a proximal nervous stimulus. Using action-research techniques, with this simulator it was possible to validate that the human nerve response can be replicated, which will aid the training of health professionals, reducing possible risks in a surgical environment.

  15. National Forecast Charts

    Science.gov (United States)

    code. Press enter or select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" or Prediction Center on Twitter NCEP Quarterly Newsletter WPC Home Analyses and Forecasts National Forecast to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services. National Forecast Charts

  16. Are Forecast Updates Progressive?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractMacro-economic forecasts typically involve both a model component, which is replicable, as well as intuition, which is non-replicable. Intuition is expert knowledge possessed by a forecaster. If forecast updates are progressive, forecast updates should become more accurate, on average,

  17. Forecasting freight flows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyk-Jensen, Stéphanie

    2011-01-01

    Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment...... constitute a valuable input to freight models for forecasting future capacity problems.......Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment...

  18. An Elementary Approach to Thinking under Uncertainty: A Prototype Text

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-10-01

    bank employee 3 5𔄀" to 5󈧏" bank president 4 6’ to 6𔃿" C basketball player ( NBA ) over 6𔃿" 21 beautician 22 ... Fred could not decide whether the...that there are 23 National Basketball Association ( NBA ) teams, each of whom carries a roster of 12 players, for a total of 276 NBA players in the United...128 CHAPTER 11: TWO DEMONSTRATIONS .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . . . . . 131 The Basketball Player and the

  19. A methodology for Electric Power Load Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eisa Almeshaiei

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Electricity demand forecasting is a central and integral process for planning periodical operations and facility expansion in the electricity sector. Demand pattern is almost very complex due to the deregulation of energy markets. Therefore, finding an appropriate forecasting model for a specific electricity network is not an easy task. Although many forecasting methods were developed, none can be generalized for all demand patterns. Therefore, this paper presents a pragmatic methodology that can be used as a guide to construct Electric Power Load Forecasting models. This methodology is mainly based on decomposition and segmentation of the load time series. Several statistical analyses are involved to study the load features and forecasting precision such as moving average and probability plots of load noise. Real daily load data from Kuwaiti electric network are used as a case study. Some results are reported to guide forecasting future needs of this network.

  20. Imagining the prototype

    OpenAIRE

    Brouwer, C. E.; Bhomer, ten, M.; Melkas, H.; Buur, J.

    2013-01-01

    This article reports on the analysis of a design session, employing conversation analysis. In the design session three experts and a designer discuss a prototype of a shirt, which has been developed with the input from these experts. The analysis focuses on the type of involvement of the participants with the prototype and how they explicate the points they make in the discussion with or without making use of the prototype. Three techniques for explicating design issues that exploit the proto...

  1. Rapid Prototyping Laboratory

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The ARDEC Rapid Prototyping (RP) Laboratory was established in December 1992 to provide low cost RP capabilities to the ARDEC engineering community. The Stratasys,...

  2. Fabrication and Prototyping Lab

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — Purpose: The Fabrication and Prototyping Lab for composite structures provides a wide variety of fabrication capabilities critical to enabling hands-on research and...

  3. Prototype design based on NX subdivision modeling application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhan, Xianghui; Li, Xiaoda

    2018-04-01

    Prototype design is an important part of the product design, through a quick and easy way to draw a three-dimensional product prototype. Combined with the actual production, the prototype could be modified several times, resulting in a highly efficient and reasonable design before the formal design. Subdivision modeling is a common method of modeling product prototypes. Through Subdivision modeling, people can in a short time with a simple operation to get the product prototype of the three-dimensional model. This paper discusses the operation method of Subdivision modeling for geometry. Take a vacuum cleaner as an example, the NX Subdivision modeling functions are applied. Finally, the development of Subdivision modeling is forecasted.

  4. Forecasting Costa Rican Quarterly Growth with Mixed-frequency Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adolfo Rodríguez Vargas

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available We assess the utility of mixed-frequency models to forecast the quarterly growth rate of Costa Rican real GDP: we estimate bridge and MiDaS models with several lag lengths using information of the IMAE and compute forecasts (horizons of 0-4 quarters which are compared between themselves, with those of ARIMA models and with those resulting from forecast combinations. Combining the most accurate forecasts is most useful when forecasting in real time, whereas MiDaS forecasts are the best-performing overall: as the forecasting horizon increases, their precisionis affected relatively little; their success rates in predicting the direction of changes in the growth rate are stable, and several forecastsremain unbiased. In particular, forecasts computed from simple MiDaS with 9 and 12 lags are unbiased at all horizons and information sets assessed, and show the highest number of significant differences in forecasting ability in comparison with all other models.

  5. Flood forecasting and uncertainty of precipitation forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kobold, Mira; Suselj, Kay

    2004-01-01

    The timely and accurate flood forecasting is essential for the reliable flood warning. The effectiveness of flood warning is dependent on the forecast accuracy of certain physical parameters, such as the peak magnitude of the flood, its timing, location and duration. The conceptual rainfall - runoff models enable the estimation of these parameters and lead to useful operational forecasts. The accurate rainfall is the most important input into hydrological models. The input for the rainfall can be real time rain-gauges data, or weather radar data, or meteorological forecasted precipitation. The torrential nature of streams and fast runoff are characteristic for the most of the Slovenian rivers. Extensive damage is caused almost every year- by rainstorms affecting different regions of Slovenia' The lag time between rainfall and runoff is very short for Slovenian territory and on-line data are used only for now casting. Forecasted precipitations are necessary for hydrological forecast for some days ahead. ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) gives general forecast for several days ahead while more detailed precipitation data with limited area ALADIN/Sl model are available for two days ahead. There is a certain degree of uncertainty using such precipitation forecasts based on meteorological models. The variability of precipitation is very high in Slovenia and the uncertainty of ECMWF predicted precipitation is very large for Slovenian territory. ECMWF model can predict precipitation events correctly, but underestimates amount of precipitation in general The average underestimation is about 60% for Slovenian region. The predictions of limited area ALADIN/Si model up to; 48 hours ahead show greater applicability in hydrological forecasting. The hydrological models are sensitive to precipitation input. The deviation of runoff is much bigger than the rainfall deviation. Runoff to rainfall error fraction is about 1.6. If spatial and time distribution

  6. Applying an empathic design model to gain an understanding of consumers’ cognitive orientations and develop a product prototype

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ding-Bang Luh

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Consideration of consumer opinion is a key success factor when it comes to developing a new product. However, businesses may lack suitable methods for this, and designers may lack practical training, with both situations meaning that firms are unable to precisely adopt consumer opinions. Moreover, consumer cognitions for a product are widely regarded as changeable and abstract. It is worth studying how to determine consumers’ opinions and transform them into references for prototype development. The purpose of this study is thus to create an Empathic Design Model which would be able to determine consumer cognitive orientation.Design/methodology/approach: This model includes observing related phenomena, laddering the cognition, connecting the elements of the Associations Matrix, producing the hierarchy of the following four items, attributes, functional consequences, psychosocial consequences and values, and then producing a prototype to help designers and consumers reach a consensus on the cognitive structure of products.Findings: As demonstrated in a case study of the design of an “electronic tour guide”, the authors developed a prototype that can help a guide to perform their job on a group package tour. Consequently, the Empathic Design Model can be operated and put into practice. By Mind Mapping, the prototype can be then imitated and reinvented by designers as needed.Originality/value: This model focuses on the early phase of the design process, providing the designing industry with a technique to forecast consumers’ potential needs and develop a prototype effectively.

  7. Designing and testing prototypes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vereijken, P.; Wijnands, F.; Stol, W.

    1995-01-01

    This second progress report focuses on designing a theoretical prototype by linking parameters to methods and designing the methods in this context until they are ready for initial testing. The report focuses also on testing and improving the prototype in general and the methods in particular until

  8. EUCLID ARCHIVE SYSTEM PROTOTYPE

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Belikov, Andrey; Williams, Owen; Droge, Bob; Tsyganov, Andrey; Boxhoorn, Danny; McFarland, John; Verdoes Kleijn, Gijs; Valentijn, E; Altieri, Bruno; Dabin, Christophe; Pasian, F.; Osuna, Pedro; Soille, P.; Marchetti, P.G.

    2014-01-01

    The Euclid Archive System prototype is a functional information system which is used to address the numerous challenges in the development of fully functional data processing system for Euclid. The prototype must support the highly distributed nature of the Euclid Science Ground System, with Science

  9. Specifications in software prototyping

    OpenAIRE

    Luqi; Chang, Carl K.; Zhu, Hong

    1998-01-01

    We explore the use of software speci®cations for software prototyping. This paper describes a process model for software prototyping, and shows how specifications can be used to support such a process via a cellular mobile phone switch example.

  10. EPCiR prototype

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2003-01-01

    A prototype of a residential pervasive computing platform based on OSGi involving among other a mock-up of an health care bandage.......A prototype of a residential pervasive computing platform based on OSGi involving among other a mock-up of an health care bandage....

  11. Cooperative Prototyping Experiments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bødker, Susanne; Grønbæk, Kaj

    1989-01-01

    This paper describes experiments with a design technique that we denote cooperative prototyping. The experiments consider design of a patient case record system for municipal dental clinics in which we used HyperCard, an off the shelf programming environment for the Macintosh. In the ecperiments we...... tried to achieve a fluent work-like evaluation of prototypes where users envisioned future work with a computer tool, at the same time as we made on-line modifications of prototypes in cooperation with the users when breakdown occur in their work-like evaluation. The experiments showed...... that it was possible to make a number of direct manipulation changes of prototypes in cooperation with the users, in interplay with their fluent work-like evaluation of these. However, breakdown occurred in the prototyping process when we reached the limits of the direct manipulation support for modification. From...

  12. Fuel cycle forecasting - there are forecasts and there are forecasts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Puechl, K H

    1975-12-01

    The FORECAST-NUCLEAR computer program described recognizes that forecasts are made to answer a variety of questions and, therefore, that no single forecast is universally appropriate. Also, it recognizes that no two individuals will completely agree as to the input data that are appropriate for obtaining an answer to even a single simple question. Accordingly, the program was written from a utilitarian standpoint: it allows working with multiple projections; data inputting is simple to allow game-playing; computation time is short to minimize the cost of 'what if' assessements; and detail is internally carried to allow meaningful analysis.

  13. Fuel cycle forecasting - there are forecasts and there are forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Puechl, K.H.

    1975-01-01

    The FORECAST-NUCLEAR computer program described recognizes that forecasts are made to answer a variety of questions and, therefore, that no single forecast is universally appropriate. Also, it recognizes that no two individuals will completely agree as to the input data that are appropriate for obtaining an answer to even a single simple question. Accordingly, the program was written from a utilitarian standpoint: it allows working with multiple projections; data inputting is simple to allow game-playing; computation time is short to minimize the cost of 'what if' assessements; and detail is internally carried to allow meaningful analysis. (author)

  14. Robust Approaches to Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Jennifer Castle; David Hendry; Michael P. Clements

    2014-01-01

    We investigate alternative robust approaches to forecasting, using a new class of robust devices, contrasted with equilibrium correction models. Their forecasting properties are derived facing a range of likely empirical problems at the forecast origin, including measurement errors, implulses, omitted variables, unanticipated location shifts and incorrectly included variables that experience a shift. We derive the resulting forecast biases and error variances, and indicate when the methods ar...

  15. Inflation Forecast Contracts

    OpenAIRE

    Gersbach, Hans; Hahn, Volker

    2012-01-01

    We introduce a new type of incentive contract for central bankers: inflation forecast contracts, which make central bankers’ remunerations contingent on the precision of their inflation forecasts. We show that such contracts enable central bankers to influence inflation expectations more effectively, thus facilitating more successful stabilization of current inflation. Inflation forecast contracts improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts, but have adverse consequences for output. On balanc...

  16. PRMS Data Warehousing Prototype

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guruvadoo, Eranna K.

    2002-01-01

    Project and Resource Management System (PRMS) is a web-based, mid-level management tool developed at KSC to provide a unified enterprise framework for Project and Mission management. The addition of a data warehouse as a strategic component to the PRMS is investigated through the analysis, design and implementation processes of a data warehouse prototype. As a proof of concept, a demonstration of the prototype with its OLAP's technology for multidimensional data analysis is made. The results of the data analysis and the design constraints are discussed. The prototype can be used to motivate interest and support for an operational data warehouse.

  17. FORECASTING NEW PRODUCT SALES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Siriram

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This paper tests the accuracy of using Linear regression, Logistics regression, and Bass curves in selected new product rollouts, based on sales data. The selected new products come from the electronics and electrical engineering and information and communications technology industries. The eight selected products are: electronic switchgear, electric motors, supervisory control and data acquisition systems, programmable logic controllers, cell phones, wireless modules, routers, and antennas. We compare the Linear regression, Logistics regression and Bass curves with respect to forecasting using analysis of variance. The accuracy of these three curves is studied and conclusions are drawn. We use an expert panel to compare the different curves and provide lessons for managers to improve forecasting new product sales. In addition, comparison between the two industries is drawn, and areas for further research are indicated.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie artikel toets die akkuraatheid van die gebruik van linêere regressie, logistiese regressie en Bass-krommes by die bekendstelling van nuwe produkte gebaseer op verkoopsdata. Die geselekteerde nuwe produkte is uit die elektriese en elektroniese asook informasietegnologie- en kommunikasie bedrywe. Linêere regressie, logistiese regressie en Bass-krommes word vergelyk ten opsigte van vooruitskatting deur variansie te ontleed. Die akkuraatheid word ontleed en gevolgtrekkings gemaak. Die doel is om vooruitskatting van nuwe produkverkope te verbeter.

  18. Electricity demand forecasting techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gnanalingam, K.

    1994-01-01

    Electricity demand forecasting plays an important role in power generation. The two areas of data that have to be forecasted in a power system are peak demand which determines the capacity (MW) of the plant required and annual energy demand (GWH). Methods used in electricity demand forecasting include time trend analysis and econometric methods. In forecasting, identification of manpower demand, identification of key planning factors, decision on planning horizon, differentiation between prediction and projection (i.e. development of different scenarios) and choosing from different forecasting techniques are important

  19. Spatial electric load forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Willis, H Lee

    2002-01-01

    Containing 12 new chapters, this second edition contains offers increased-coverage of weather correction and normalization of forecasts, anticipation of redevelopment, determining the validity of announced developments, and minimizing risk from over- or under-planning. It provides specific examples and detailed explanations of key points to consider for both standard and unusual utility forecasting situations, information on new algorithms and concepts in forecasting, a review of forecasting pitfalls and mistakes, case studies depicting challenging forecast environments, and load models illustrating various types of demand.

  20. The use of ambient humidity conditions to improve influenza forecast.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey Shaman

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Laboratory and epidemiological evidence indicate that ambient humidity modulates the survival and transmission of influenza. Here we explore whether the inclusion of humidity forcing in mathematical models describing influenza transmission improves the accuracy of forecasts generated with those models. We generate retrospective forecasts for 95 cities over 10 seasons in the United States and assess both forecast accuracy and error. Overall, we find that humidity forcing improves forecast performance (at 1-4 lead weeks, 3.8% more peak week and 4.4% more peak intensity forecasts are accurate than with no forcing and that forecasts generated using daily climatological humidity forcing generally outperform forecasts that utilize daily observed humidity forcing (4.4% and 2.6% respectively. These findings hold for predictions of outbreak peak intensity, peak timing, and incidence over 2- and 4-week horizons. The results indicate that use of climatological humidity forcing is warranted for current operational influenza forecast.

  1. Do probabilistic forecasts lead to better decisions?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. H. Ramos

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The last decade has seen growing research in producing probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts and increasing their reliability. This followed the promise that, supplied with information about uncertainty, people would take better risk-based decisions. In recent years, therefore, research and operational developments have also started focusing attention on ways of communicating the probabilistic forecasts to decision-makers. Communicating probabilistic forecasts includes preparing tools and products for visualisation, but also requires understanding how decision-makers perceive and use uncertainty information in real time. At the EGU General Assembly 2012, we conducted a laboratory-style experiment in which several cases of flood forecasts and a choice of actions to take were presented as part of a game to participants, who acted as decision-makers. Answers were collected and analysed. In this paper, we present the results of this exercise and discuss if we indeed make better decisions on the basis of probabilistic forecasts.

  2. Light Guide Collector Prototype: Laboratory Testing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jitka - Mohelnikova

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The article reviews the potential of light guide system equipped by a concentrator device capturing daylight applicable for illumination of building interiors and presents results of experiments on performance of its prototype. The main goal is focused on the comparison of traditional solutions and newly developed prototype of the light guide system and presents examination of its light transmission efficiency based on the laboratory experiments.

  3. Medium Range Forecasts Representation (and Long Range Forecasts?)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincendon, J.-C.

    2009-09-01

    interesting on Fridays because it gives then a first outlook of the weather for the second weekend. There also, an example will illustrate that. Finally, we lead an experiment for some months to go beyond and supply a tendency of weather forecasts over the period D+10 / D+14, whom we also call " tendency for week 2 ". It is a question at the moment of producing a small text describing the global evolution of the temperatures and the precipitation, there is no graphic production. All this is completed by a sentence summarizing the tendencies expected from the temperature for weeks 3 and 4. We thus begin to think seriously about the production of a monthly forecast for the public within the framework of our operational activities. We have to establish under which graphic shape this one can be made.

  4. Parametric decadal climate forecast recalibration (DeFoReSt 1.0)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasternack, Alexander; Bhend, Jonas; Liniger, Mark A.; Rust, Henning W.; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Ulbrich, Uwe

    2018-01-01

    Near-term climate predictions such as decadal climate forecasts are increasingly being used to guide adaptation measures. For near-term probabilistic predictions to be useful, systematic errors of the forecasting systems have to be corrected. While methods for the calibration of probabilistic forecasts are readily available, these have to be adapted to the specifics of decadal climate forecasts including the long time horizon of decadal climate forecasts, lead-time-dependent systematic errors (drift) and the errors in the representation of long-term changes and variability. These features are compounded by small ensemble sizes to describe forecast uncertainty and a relatively short period for which typically pairs of reforecasts and observations are available to estimate calibration parameters. We introduce the Decadal Climate Forecast Recalibration Strategy (DeFoReSt), a parametric approach to recalibrate decadal ensemble forecasts that takes the above specifics into account. DeFoReSt optimizes forecast quality as measured by the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS). Using a toy model to generate synthetic forecast observation pairs, we demonstrate the positive effect on forecast quality in situations with pronounced and limited predictability. Finally, we apply DeFoReSt to decadal surface temperature forecasts from the MiKlip prototype system and find consistent, and sometimes considerable, improvements in forecast quality compared with a simple calibration of the lead-time-dependent systematic errors.

  5. Sales Forecasting for Fashion Retailing Service Industry: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Na Liu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Sales forecasting is crucial for many retail operations. It is especially critical for the fashion retailing service industry in which product demand is very volatile and product’s life cycle is short. This paper conducts a comprehensive literature review and selects a set of papers in the literature on fashion retail sales forecasting. The advantages and the drawbacks of different kinds of analytical methods for fashion retail sales forecasting are examined. The evolution of the respective forecasting methods over the past 15 years is revealed. Issues related to real-world applications of the fashion retail sales forecasting models and important future research directions are discussed.

  6. Forecasting telecommunication new service demand by analogy method and combined forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin Feng-Jenq

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available In the modeling forecast field, we are usually faced with the more difficult problems of forecasting market demand for a new service or product. A new service or product is defined as that there is absence of historical data in this new market. We hardly use models to execute the forecasting work directly. In the Taiwan telecommunication industry, after liberalization in 1996, there are many new services opened continually. For optimal investment, it is necessary that the operators, who have been granted the concessions and licenses, forecast this new service within their planning process. Though there are some methods to solve or avoid this predicament, in this paper, we will propose one forecasting procedure that integrates the concept of analogy method and the idea of combined forecast to generate new service forecast. In view of the above, the first half of this paper describes the procedure of analogy method and the approach of combined forecast, and the second half provides the case of forecasting low-tier phone demand in Taiwan to illustrate this procedure's feasibility.

  7. Call Forecasting for Inbound Call Center

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Vinje

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available In a scenario of inbound call center customer service, the ability to forecast calls is a key element and advantage. By forecasting the correct number of calls a company can predict staffing needs, meet service level requirements, improve customer satisfaction, and benefit from many other optimizations. This project will show how elementary statistics can be used to predict calls for a specific company, forecast the rate at which calls are increasing/decreasing, and determine if the calls may stop at some point.

  8. Forecasting Ebola with a regression transmission model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason Asher

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available We describe a relatively simple stochastic model of Ebola transmission that was used to produce forecasts with the lowest mean absolute error among Ebola Forecasting Challenge participants. The model enabled prediction of peak incidence, the timing of this peak, and final size of the outbreak. The underlying discrete-time compartmental model used a time-varying reproductive rate modeled as a multiplicative random walk driven by the number of infectious individuals. This structure generalizes traditional Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR disease modeling approaches and allows for the flexible consideration of outbreaks with complex trajectories of disease dynamics. Keywords: Ebola, Forecasting, Mathematical modeling, Bayesian inference

  9. Inaccuracy in traffic forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent; Holm, Mette K. Skamris; Buhl, Søren Ladegaard

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth US$58 billion. The study shows with very high statistical significance...... that forecasters generally do a poor job of estimating the demand for transportation infrastructure projects. The result is substantial downside financial and economic risk. Forecasts have not become more accurate over the 30-year period studied. If techniques and skills for arriving at accurate demand forecasts...... forecasting. Highly inaccurate traffic forecasts combined with large standard deviations translate into large financial and economic risks. But such risks are typically ignored or downplayed by planners and decision-makers, to the detriment of social and economic welfare. The paper presents the data...

  10. From prototype to product

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Tariq Osman; Bansler, Jørgen P.; Kensing, Finn

    2017-01-01

    This paper delves into the challenges of engaging patients, clinicians and industry stakeholders in the participatory design of an mHealth platform for patient-clinician collaboration. It follows the process from the development of a research prototype to a commercial software product. In particu......This paper delves into the challenges of engaging patients, clinicians and industry stakeholders in the participatory design of an mHealth platform for patient-clinician collaboration. It follows the process from the development of a research prototype to a commercial software product....... In particular, we draw attention to four major challenges of (a) aligning the different concerns of patients and clinicians, (b) designing according to clinical accountability, (c) ensuring commercial interest, and (d) dealing with regulatory constraints when prototyping safety critical health Information...... Technology. Using four illustrative cases, we discuss what these challenges entail and the implications they pose to Participatory Design. We conclude the paper by presenting lessons learned....

  11. Homogeneity of Prototypical Attributes in Soccer Teams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Zepp

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Research indicates that the homogeneous perception of prototypical attributes influences several intragroup processes. The aim of the present study was to describe the homogeneous perception of the prototype and to identify specific prototypical subcategories, which are perceived as homogeneous within sport teams. The sample consists of N = 20 soccer teams with a total of N = 278 athletes (age M = 23.5 years, SD = 5.0 years. The results reveal that subcategories describing the cohesiveness of the team and motivational attributes are mentioned homogeneously within sport teams. In addition, gender, identification, team size, and the championship ranking significantly correlate with the homogeneous perception of prototypical attributes. The results are discussed on the basis of theoretical and practical implications.

  12. FORECASTING MODELS IN MANAGEMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Sindelar, Jiri

    2008-01-01

    This article deals with the problems of forecasting models. First part of the article is dedicated to definition of the relevant areas (vertical and horizontal pillar of definition) and then the forecasting model itself is defined; as article presents theoretical background for further primary research, this definition is crucial. Finally the position of forecasting models within the management system is identified. The paper is a part of the outputs of FEM CULS grant no. 1312/11/3121.

  13. Forecasting in Planning

    OpenAIRE

    Ike, P.; Voogd, Henk; Voogd, Henk; Linden, Gerard

    2004-01-01

    This chapter begins with a discussion of qualitative forecasting by describing a number of methods that depend on judgements made by stakeholders, experts or other interested parties to arrive at forecasts. Two qualitative approaches are illuminated, the Delphi and scenario methods respectively. Quantitative forecasting is illustrated with a brief overview of time series methods. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are illustrated by an example. The role and relative importance of forec...

  14. The strategy of professional forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ottaviani, Marco; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    2006-01-01

    We develop and compare two theories of professional forecasters’ strategic behavior. The first theory, reputational cheap talk, posits that forecasters endeavor to convince the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts...... and the realized state. If the market expects forecasters to report their posterior expectations honestly, then forecasts are shaded toward the prior mean. With correct market expectations, equilibrium forecasts are imprecise but not shaded. The second theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting...... contest with pre-specified rules. In a winner-take-all contest, equilibrium forecasts are excessively differentiated...

  15. PANDA Muon System Prototype

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abazov, Victor; Alexeev, Gennady; Alexeev, Maxim; Frolov, Vladimir; Golovanov, Georgy; Kutuzov, Sergey; Piskun, Alexei; Samartsev, Alexander; Tokmenin, Valeri; Verkheev, Alexander; Vertogradov, Leonid; Zhuravlev, Nikolai

    2018-04-01

    The PANDA Experiment will be one of the key experiments at the Facility for Antiproton and Ion Research (FAIR) which is under construction now in the territory of the GSI Helmholtz Centre for Heavy Ion Research in Darmstadt, Germany. PANDA is aimed to study hadron spectroscopy and various topics of the weak and strong forces. Muon System is chosen as the most suitable technology for detecting the muons. The Prototype of the PANDA Muon System is installed on the test beam line T9 at the Proton Synchrotron (PS) at CERN. Status of the PANDA Muon System prototype is presented with few preliminary results.

  16. Prototyping a Smart City

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Korsgaard, Henrik; Brynskov, Martin

    In this paper, we argue that by approaching the so-called Smart City as a design challenge, and an interaction design perspective, it is possible to both uncover existing challenges in the interplay between people, technology and society, as well as prototype possible futures. We present a case...... in which we exposed data about the online communication between the citizens and the municipality on a highly visible media facade, while at the same time prototyped a tool that enabled citizens to report ‘bugs’ within the city....

  17. Rapid prototyping of robotic platforms

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    De Ronde, Willis

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available of thickness up to 200mm can be cut to create prototype chassis/ bodies or even the final product. One of the few limitations is the cutting of certain laminated materials, as this tends to produce delaminated cutting edges or even fractures in the case... mine inspection robot (Shongololo). Shongololo’s frame is made from engineering plastics while the chassis of Dassie was made from aluminium and cut using abrasive waterjet machining. The advantage of using abrasive waterjet machining is the speed...

  18. A prototype nuclear emergency response decision making expert system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, C.; Shih, C.; Hong, M.; Yu, W.; Su, M.; Wang, S.

    1990-01-01

    A prototype of emergency response expert system developed for nuclear power plants, has been fulfilled by Institute of Nuclear Energy Research. Key elements that have been implemented for emergency response include radioactive material dispersion assessment, dynamic transportation evacuation assessment, and meteorological parametric forecasting. A network system consists of five 80386 Personal Computers (PCs) has been installed to perform the system functions above. A further project is still continuing to achieve a more complicated and fanciful computer aid integral emergency response expert system

  19. LEP vacuum chamber, prototype

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN PhotoLab

    1983-01-01

    Final prototype for the LEP vacuum chamber, see 8305170 for more details. Here we see the strips of the NEG pump, providing "distributed pumping". The strips are made from a Zr-Ti-Fe alloy. By passing an electrical current, they were heated to 700 deg C.

  20. Imagining the prototype

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brouwer, C. E.; Bhomer, ten M.; Melkas, H.; Buur, J.

    2013-01-01

    This article reports on the analysis of a design session, employing conversation analysis. In the design session three experts and a designer discuss a prototype of a shirt, which has been developed with the input from these experts. The analysis focuses on the type of involvement of the

  1. MIND performance and prototyping

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cervera-Villanueva, A.

    2008-01-01

    The performance of MIND (Magnetised Iron Neutrino Detector) at a neutrino factory has been revisited in a new analysis. In particular, the low neutrino energy region is studied, obtaining an efficiency plateau around 5 GeV for a background level below 10 -3 . A first look has been given into the detector optimisation and prototyping

  2. The prototype fast reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broomfield, A.M.

    1985-01-01

    The paper concerns the Prototype Fast Reactor (PFR), which is a liquid metal cooled fast reactor power station, situated at Dounreay, Scotland. The principal design features of a Fast Reactor and the PFR are given, along with key points of operating history, and health and safety features. The role of the PFR in the development programme for commercial reactors is discussed. (U.K.)

  3. AGS Booster prototype magnets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Danby, G.; Jackson, J.; Lee, Y.Y.; Phillips, R.; Brodowski, J.; Jablonski, E.; Keohane, G.; McDowell, B.; Rodger, E.

    1987-03-19

    Prototype magnets have been designed and constructed for two half cells of the AGS Booster. The lattice requires 2.4m long dipoles, each curved by 10/sup 0/. The multi-use Booster injector requires several very different standard magnet cycles, capable of instantaneous interchange using computer control from dc up to 10 Hz.

  4. AGS booster prototype magnets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Danby, G.; Jackson, J.; Lee, Y.Y.; Phillips, R.; Brodowski, J.; Jablonski, E.; Keohane, G.; McDowell, B.; Rodger, E.

    1987-01-01

    Prototype magnets have been designed and constructed for two half cells of the AGS Booster. The lattice requires 2.4m long dipoles, each curved by 10 0 . The multi-use Booster injector requires several very different standard magnet cycles, capable of instantaneous interchange using computer control from dc up to 10 Hz

  5. Cockroft Walton accelerator prototype

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hutapea, Sumihar.

    1976-01-01

    Prototype of a Cockroft Walton generator using ceramic and plastic capacitors is discussed. Compared to the previous generator, the construction and components are much more improved. Pralon is used for the high voltage insulation column and plastic is used as a dielectric material for the high voltage capacitor. Cockroft Walton generator is used as a high tension supply for an accelerator. (author)

  6. Prompt and Precise Prototyping

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-01-01

    For Sanders Design International, Inc., of Wilton, New Hampshire, every passing second between the concept and realization of a product is essential to succeed in the rapid prototyping industry where amongst heavy competition, faster time-to-market means more business. To separate itself from its rivals, Sanders Design aligned with NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center to develop what it considers to be the most accurate rapid prototyping machine for fabrication of extremely precise tooling prototypes. The company's Rapid ToolMaker System has revolutionized production of high quality, small-to-medium sized prototype patterns and tooling molds with an exactness that surpasses that of computer numerically-controlled (CNC) machining devices. Created with funding and support from Marshall under a Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) contract, the Rapid ToolMaker is a dual-use technology with applications in both commercial and military aerospace fields. The advanced technology provides cost savings in the design and manufacturing of automotive, electronic, and medical parts, as well as in other areas of consumer interest, such as jewelry and toys. For aerospace applications, the Rapid ToolMaker enables fabrication of high-quality turbine and compressor blades for jet engines on unmanned air vehicles, aircraft, and missiles.

  7. Surrogates-based prototyping

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Du Bois, E.; Horvath, I.

    2014-01-01

    The research is situated in the system development phase of interactive software products. In this detailed design phase, we found a need for fast testable prototyping to achieve qualitative change proposals on the system design. In this paper, we discuss a literature study on current software

  8. Z Andromedae: the prototype

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Viotti, R.; Giangrande, A.; Ricciardi, O.; Cassatella, A.

    1982-01-01

    Z And is considered as the ''prototype'' of the symbiotic stars. Besides its symbiotic spectrum, the star is also known for its characteristic light curve (and for the related spectral variations). Since many theoretical speculations on Z And and similar objects have been based on the luminosity and spectral variations of this star, the authors critically analyse the observational data concerning it. (Auth.)

  9. Prototype ATLAS straw tracker

    CERN Multimedia

    Laurent Guiraud

    1998-01-01

    This is an early prototype of the straw tracking device for the ATLAS detector at CERN. This detector will be part of the LHC project, scheduled to start operation in 2008. The straw tracker will consist of thousands of gas-filled straws, each containing a wire, allowing the tracks of particles to be followed.

  10. Courthouse Prototype Building

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Malhotra, Mini [ORNL; New, Joshua Ryan [ORNL; Im, Piljae [ORNL

    2018-02-01

    As part of DOE's support of ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1 and IECC, researchers at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) apply a suite of prototype buildings covering 80% of the commercial building floor area in the U.S. for new construction. Efforts have started on expanding the prototype building suite to cover 90% of the commercial building floor area in the U.S., by developing prototype models for additional building types including place of worship, public order and safety, public assembly. Courthouse is courthouse is a sub-category under the “Public Order and Safety" building type category; other sub-categories include police station, fire station, and jail, reformatory or penitentiary.ORNL used building design guides, databases, and documented courthouse projects, supplemented by personal communication with courthouse facility planning and design experts, to systematically conduct research on the courthouse building and system characteristics. This report documents the research conducted for the courthouse building type and proposes building and system characteristics for developing a prototype building energy model to be included in the Commercial Building Prototype Model suite. According to the 2012 CBECS, courthouses occupy a total of 436 million sqft of floor space or 0.5% of the total floor space in all commercial buildings in the US, next to fast food (0.35%), grocery store or food market (0.88%), and restaurant or cafeteria (1.2%) building types currently included in the Commercial Prototype Building Model suite. Considering aggregated average, courthouse falls among the larger with a mean floor area of 69,400 sqft smaller fuel consumption intensity building types and an average of 94.7 kBtu/sqft compared to 77.8 kBtu/sqft for office and 80 kBtu/sqft for all commercial buildings.Courthouses range in size from 1000 sqft to over a million square foot building gross square feet and 1 courtroom to over 100 courtrooms. Small courthouses

  11. Evaluating Extensions to Coherent Mortality Forecasting Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syazreen Shair

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Coherent models were developed recently to forecast the mortality of two or more sub-populations simultaneously and to ensure long-term non-divergent mortality forecasts of sub-populations. This paper evaluates the forecast accuracy of two recently-published coherent mortality models, the Poisson common factor and the product-ratio functional models. These models are compared to each other and the corresponding independent models, as well as the original Lee–Carter model. All models are applied to age-gender-specific mortality data for Australia and Malaysia and age-gender-ethnicity-specific data for Malaysia. The out-of-sample forecast error of log death rates, male-to-female death rate ratios and life expectancy at birth from each model are compared and examined across groups. The results show that, in terms of overall accuracy, the forecasts of both coherent models are consistently more accurate than those of the independent models for Australia and for Malaysia, but the relative performance differs by forecast horizon. Although the product-ratio functional model outperforms the Poisson common factor model for Australia, the Poisson common factor is more accurate for Malaysia. For the ethnic groups application, ethnic-coherence gives better results than gender-coherence. The results provide evidence that coherent models are preferable to independent models for forecasting sub-populations’ mortality.

  12. Forecasting of Currency Crises in East Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chi-Young Song

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we have developed a forecasting system for currency crisis in East Asia based on a signaling approach. Our system uses 15 monthly indicators of five East Asian countries including Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand that were severely hit by the currency crisis in 1997. We investigate the performance of the system through deploying out-of-sample forecasting for the periods both before and after the 1997 East Asian currency crisis. Unlike the existing research based on the signaling approach, our out-of-sample forecasting does not fix the in-sample period. The out-of-sample forecasting between July 1995 and June 1997 shows that prior to breakout of the crisis, several indicators including real exchange rates and exports sent frequent warnings to all crisis-hit East Asian countries except the Philippines. This may indicate that a signaling-based early warning system for currency crisis could have been an useful method of forecasting the East Asian crisis. On the other hand, we also find that our forecasting system often generates warning signals during the out-of-sample period between July 1999 and June 2001. Since we have not observed any currency crisis in this region after 1998, these are all false alarms, indicating that our system may be seriously exposed to the type II error. We can, however, mitigate this problem if we adjust the optimal critical values of indicators depending on the preferences of forecasting system manager.

  13. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Ruelke

    2013-01-01

    We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from) t......) the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time....

  14. World Area Forecast System (WAFS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The World Area Forecast System (WAFS) is a worldwide system by which world area forecast centers provide aeronautical meteorological en-route forecasts in uniform...

  15. Forecasting in Planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ike, P.; Voogd, Henk; Voogd, Henk; Linden, Gerard

    2004-01-01

    This chapter begins with a discussion of qualitative forecasting by describing a number of methods that depend on judgements made by stakeholders, experts or other interested parties to arrive at forecasts. Two qualitative approaches are illuminated, the Delphi and scenario methods respectively.

  16. Improving Garch Volatility Forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klaassen, F.J.G.M.

    1998-01-01

    Many researchers use GARCH models to generate volatility forecasts. We show, however, that such forecasts are too variable. To correct for this, we extend the GARCH model by distinguishing two regimes with different volatility levels. GARCH effects are allowed within each regime, so that our model

  17. On density forecast evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Diks, C.

    2008-01-01

    Traditionally, probability integral transforms (PITs) have been popular means for evaluating density forecasts. For an ideal density forecast, the PITs should be uniformly distributed on the unit interval and independent. However, this is only a necessary condition, and not a sufficient one, as

  18. Forecast Accuracy Uncertainty and Momentum

    OpenAIRE

    Bing Han; Dong Hong; Mitch Warachka

    2009-01-01

    We demonstrate that stock price momentum and earnings momentum can result from uncertainty surrounding the accuracy of cash flow forecasts. Our model has multiple information sources issuing cash flow forecasts for a stock. The investor combines these forecasts into an aggregate cash flow estimate that has minimal mean-squared forecast error. This aggregate estimate weights each cash flow forecast by the estimated accuracy of its issuer, which is obtained from their past forecast errors. Mome...

  19. The Discriminant Analysis Flare Forecasting System (DAFFS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leka, K. D.; Barnes, Graham; Wagner, Eric; Hill, Frank; Marble, Andrew R.

    2016-05-01

    The Discriminant Analysis Flare Forecasting System (DAFFS) has been developed under NOAA/Small Business Innovative Research funds to quantitatively improve upon the NOAA/SWPC flare prediction. In the Phase-I of this project, it was demonstrated that DAFFS could indeed improve by the requested 25% most of the standard flare prediction data products from NOAA/SWPC. In the Phase-II of this project, a prototype has been developed and is presently running autonomously at NWRA.DAFFS uses near-real-time data from NOAA/GOES, SDO/HMI, and the NSO/GONG network to issue both region- and full-disk forecasts of solar flares, based on multi-variable non-parametric Discriminant Analysis. Presently, DAFFS provides forecasts which match those provided by NOAA/SWPC in terms of thresholds and validity periods (including 1-, 2-, and 3- day forecasts), although issued twice daily. Of particular note regarding DAFFS capabilities are the redundant system design, automatically-generated validation statistics and the large range of customizable options available. As part of this poster, a description of the data used, algorithm, performance and customizable options will be presented, as well as a demonstration of the DAFFS prototype.DAFFS development at NWRA is supported by NOAA/SBIR contracts WC-133R-13-CN-0079 and WC-133R-14-CN-0103, with additional support from NASA contract NNH12CG10C, plus acknowledgment to the SDO/HMI and NSO/GONG facilities and NOAA/SWPC personnel for data products, support, and feedback. DAFFS is presently ready for Phase-III development.

  20. Grey Forecast Rainfall with Flow Updating Algorithm for Real-Time Flood Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jui-Yi Ho

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The dynamic relationship between watershed characteristics and rainfall-runoff has been widely studied in recent decades. Since watershed rainfall-runoff is a non-stationary process, most deterministic flood forecasting approaches are ineffective without the assistance of adaptive algorithms. The purpose of this paper is to propose an effective flow forecasting system that integrates a rainfall forecasting model, watershed runoff model, and real-time updating algorithm. This study adopted a grey rainfall forecasting technique, based on existing hourly rainfall data. A geomorphology-based runoff model can be used for simulating impacts of the changing geo-climatic conditions on the hydrologic response of unsteady and non-linear watershed system, and flow updating algorithm were combined to estimate watershed runoff according to measured flow data. The proposed flood forecasting system was applied to three watersheds; one in the United States and two in Northern Taiwan. Four sets of rainfall-runoff simulations were performed to test the accuracy of the proposed flow forecasting technique. The results indicated that the forecast and observed hydrographs are in good agreement for all three watersheds. The proposed flow forecasting system could assist authorities in minimizing loss of life and property during flood events.

  1. The intersections between TRIZ and forecasting methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgeta BARBULESCU

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The authors’ intention is to correlate the basic knowledge in using the TRIZ methodology (Theory of Inventive Problem Solving or in Russian: Teoriya Resheniya Izobretatelskikh Zadatch as a problem solving tools meant to help the decision makers to perform more significant forecasting exercises. The idea is to identify the TRIZ features and instruments (40 inventive principles, i.e. for putting in evidence the noise and signal problem, for trend identification (qualitative and quantitative tendencies and support tools in technological forecasting, to make the decision-makers able to refine and to increase the level of confidence in the forecasting results. The interest in connecting TRIZ to forecasting methodology, nowadays, relates to the massive application of TRIZ methods and techniques for engineering system development world-wide and in growing application of TRIZ’s concepts and paradigms for improvements of non-engineering systems (including the business and economic applications.

  2. Database Replication Prototype

    OpenAIRE

    Vandewall, R.

    2000-01-01

    This report describes the design of a Replication Framework that facilitates the implementation and com-parison of database replication techniques. Furthermore, it discusses the implementation of a Database Replication Prototype and compares the performance measurements of two replication techniques based on the Atomic Broadcast communication primitive: pessimistic active replication and optimistic active replication. The main contributions of this report can be split into four parts....

  3. Brachial Plexus Blocker Prototype

    OpenAIRE

    Stéphanie Coelho Monteiro

    2017-01-01

    Although the area of surgical simulation has been the subject of study in recent years, it is still necessary to develop artificial experimental models with a perspective to dismiss the use of biological models. Since this makes the simulators more real, transferring the environment of the health professional to a physical or virtual reality, an anesthetic prototype has been developed, where the motor response is replicated when the brachial plexus is subjected to a proximal nervous stimulus....

  4. Design of Object-based Information System Prototype

    OpenAIRE

    Suhyeon Yoo; Sumi Shin; Hyesun Kim

    2014-01-01

    Researchers who use science and technology information were found to ask an information service in which they can excerpt the contents they needed, rather than using the information at article level. In this study, we micronized the contents of scholarly articles into text, image, and table and then constructed a micro-content DB to design a new information system prototype based on this micro-content. After designing the prototype, we performed usability test for this prototype so as to conf...

  5. Prototyping real-time systems

    OpenAIRE

    Clynch, Gary

    1994-01-01

    The traditional software development paradigm, the waterfall life cycle model, is defective when used for developing real-time systems. This thesis puts forward an executable prototyping approach for the development of real-time systems. A prototyping system is proposed which uses ESML (Extended Systems Modelling Language) as a prototype specification language. The prototyping system advocates the translation of non-executable ESML specifications into executable LOOPN (Language of Object ...

  6. MITRE sensor layer prototype

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duff, Francis; McGarry, Donald; Zasada, David; Foote, Scott

    2009-05-01

    The MITRE Sensor Layer Prototype is an initial design effort to enable every sensor to help create new capabilities through collaborative data sharing. By making both upstream (raw) and downstream (processed) sensor data visible, users can access the specific level, type, and quantities of data needed to create new data products that were never anticipated by the original designers of the individual sensors. The major characteristic that sets sensor data services apart from typical enterprise services is the volume (on the order of multiple terabytes) of raw data that can be generated by most sensors. Traditional tightly coupled processing approaches extract pre-determined information from the incoming raw sensor data, format it, and send it to predetermined users. The community is rapidly reaching the conclusion that tightly coupled sensor processing loses too much potentially critical information.1 Hence upstream (raw and partially processed) data must be extracted, rapidly archived, and advertised to the enterprise for unanticipated uses. The authors believe layered sensing net-centric integration can be achieved through a standardize-encapsulate-syndicateaggregate- manipulate-process paradigm. The Sensor Layer Prototype's technical approach focuses on implementing this proof of concept framework to make sensor data visible, accessible and useful to the enterprise. To achieve this, a "raw" data tap between physical transducers associated with sensor arrays and the embedded sensor signal processing hardware and software has been exploited. Second, we encapsulate and expose both raw and partially processed data to the enterprise within the context of a service-oriented architecture. Third, we advertise the presence of multiple types, and multiple layers of data through geographic-enabled Really Simple Syndication (GeoRSS) services. These GeoRSS feeds are aggregated, manipulated, and filtered by a feed aggregator. After filtering these feeds to bring just the type

  7. A prototype analysis of vengeance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elshout, Maartje; Nelissen, Rob; van Beest, Ilja

    2015-01-01

    The authors examined the concept of vengeance from a prototype perspective. In 6 studies, the prototype structure of vengeance was mapped. Sixty-nine features of vengeance were identified (Study 1), and rated on centrality (Study 2). Further studies confirmed the prototype structure. Compared to

  8. Spatial electric load forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Willis, H Lee

    2002-01-01

    Spatial Electric Load Forecasting Consumer Demand for Power and ReliabilityCoincidence and Load BehaviorLoad Curve and End-Use ModelingWeather and Electric LoadWeather Design Criteria and Forecast NormalizationSpatial Load Growth BehaviorSpatial Forecast Accuracy and Error MeasuresTrending MethodsSimulation Method: Basic ConceptsA Detailed Look at the Simulation MethodBasics of Computerized SimulationAnalytical Building Blocks for Spatial SimulationAdvanced Elements of Computerized SimulationHybrid Trending-Simulation MethodsAdvanced

  9. Design of railway obstacle detection prototype

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Xungu, Sipho A

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Survey Inspection Device (SID) test prototype platform to serve as an early warning system for locomotives and was to travel 2km ahead of a locomotive in order to inspect the railway for possible obstacles such as human beings, livestock and collisions...

  10. A Novel Nonlinear Combined Forecasting System for Short-Term Load Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengshi Tian

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Short-term load forecasting plays an indispensable role in electric power systems, which is not only an extremely challenging task but also a concerning issue for all society due to complex nonlinearity characteristics. However, most previous combined forecasting models were based on optimizing weight coefficients to develop a linear combined forecasting model, while ignoring that the linear combined model only considers the contribution of the linear terms to improving the model’s performance, which will lead to poor forecasting results because of the significance of the neglected and potential nonlinear terms. In this paper, a novel nonlinear combined forecasting system, which consists of three modules (improved data pre-processing module, forecasting module and the evaluation module is developed for short-term load forecasting. Different from the simple data pre-processing of most previous studies, the improved data pre-processing module based on longitudinal data selection is successfully developed in this system, which further improves the effectiveness of data pre-processing and then enhances the final forecasting performance. Furthermore, the modified support vector machine is developed to integrate all the individual predictors and obtain the final prediction, which successfully overcomes the upper drawbacks of the linear combined model. Moreover, the evaluation module is incorporated to perform a scientific evaluation for the developed system. The half-hourly electrical load data from New South Wales are employed to verify the effectiveness of the developed forecasting system, and the results reveal that the developed nonlinear forecasting system can be employed in the dispatching and planning for smart grids.

  11. Recent advances in operational seasonal forecasting in South Africa: Models, infrastructure and networks

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available The various institutions involved with seasonal forecast development and production are discussed. New modelling approaches and the establishment of infrastructures to improve forecast dissemination are discussed....

  12. About the National Forecast Chart

    Science.gov (United States)

    code. Press enter or select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" or Prediction Center on Twitter NCEP Quarterly Newsletter WPC Home Analyses and Forecasts National Forecast to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services. The National Forecast Charts

  13. A Note on Forecasting the Rate of Change of the Price of Oil: Asymmetric Loss and Forecast Rationality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Pierdzioch

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available We study whether forecasts of the rate of change of the price of oil are rational. To this end, we consider a model that allows the shape of forecasters’ loss function to be studied. The shape of forecasters’ loss function may be consistent with a symmetric or an asymmetric loss function. We find that an asymmetric loss function often (but not always makes forecasts look rational, and we also report that forecast rationality may have changed over time.

  14. Rapid Prototyping: Technologies, Materials and Advances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dudek P.

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In the context of product development, the term rapid prototyping (RP is widely used to describe technologies which create physical prototypes directly from digital data. Recently, this technology has become one of the fastest-growing methods of manufacturing parts. The paper provides brief notes on the creation of composites using RP methods, such as stereolithography, selective laser sintering or melting, laminated object modelling, fused deposition modelling or three-dimensional printing. The emphasis of this work is on the methodology of composite fabrication and the variety of materials used in these technologies.

  15. Marine Point Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    will link to the zone forecast and then allow further zooming to the point of interest whereas on the Honolulu, HI Chicago, IL Northern Indiana, IN Lake Charles, LA New Orleans, LA Boston, MA Caribou, ME

  16. Socioeconomic Forecasting : [Technical Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Because the traffic forecasts produced by the Indiana : Statewide Travel Demand Model (ISTDM) are driven by : the demographic and socioeconomic inputs to the model, : particular attention must be given to obtaining the most : accurate demographic and...

  17. NYHOPS Forecast Model Results

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — 3D Marine Nowcast/Forecast System for the New York Bight NYHOPS subdomain. Currents, waves, surface meteorology, and water conditions.

  18. Inflow forecasting at BPA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McManamon, A. [Bonneville Power Administration, Portland, OR (United States)

    2007-07-01

    The Columbia River Power System operates with consideration for flood control, endangered species, navigation, irrigation, water supply, recreation, other fish and wildlife concerns and power production. The Bonneville Power Association (BPA) located in Portland, Oregon is responsible for 35-40 per cent of the power consumed within the region. This presentation discussed inflow power concerns at BPA. The presentation illustrated elevational relief of projects; annual and daily variability; the hydrologic cycle; national river service weather forecasting service (NRSWFS); components of NRSWFS; and hydrologic forecast locations. Project operations and inventory were included along with a comparison of the 71-year average unregulated flow with regulated flow at the Dalles. Consistency between short-term and long-term forecasts and long-term streamflow forecasts were also illustrated in graphical format. The presentation also discussed the issue of reducing model and parameter uncertainty; reducing initial conditions uncertainty; snow updating; and reducing meteorological uncertainty. tabs., figs.

  19. CCAA seasonal forecasting

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Integrating meteorological and indigenous knowledge-based seasonal climate forecasts in ..... Explanation is based on spiritual and social values. Taught by .... that provided medicine and food became the subject of strict rules and practices ...

  20. Forecast Icing Product

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Forecast Icing Product (FIP) is an automatically-generated index suitable for depicting areas of potentially hazardous airframe icing. The FIP algorithm uses...

  1. Conditional Probabilistic Population Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Sanderson, W.C.; Scherbov, S.; O'Neill, B.C.; Lutz, W.

    2003-01-01

    Since policy makers often prefer to think in terms of scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy makers it allows them to answer "what if"...

  2. Conditional probabilistic population forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Sanderson, Warren; Scherbov, Sergei; O'Neill, Brian; Lutz, Wolfgang

    2003-01-01

    Since policy-makers often prefer to think in terms of alternative scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy-makers because it allows them...

  3. Conditional Probabilistic Population Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Sanderson, Warren C.; Scherbov, Sergei; O'Neill, Brian C.; Lutz, Wolfgang

    2004-01-01

    Since policy-makers often prefer to think in terms of alternative scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy-makers because...

  4. EU pharmaceutical expenditure forecast

    OpenAIRE

    Urbinati, Duccio; Rémuzat, Cécile; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    Background and Objectives: With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, forecasting has become critically important. Some countries have, for instance, developed pharmaceutical horizon scanning units. The objective of this project was to build a model to assess the net effect of the entrance of new patented medicinal products versus medicinal products going off-patent, with a defined forecast horizon, on selected European Union (EU) Member States’ ph...

  5. Problems of Forecast

    OpenAIRE

    Kucharavy , Dmitry; De Guio , Roland

    2005-01-01

    International audience; The ability to foresee future technology is a key task of Innovative Design. The paper focuses on the obstacles to reliable prediction of technological evolution for the purpose of Innovative Design. First, a brief analysis of problems for existing forecasting methods is presented. The causes for the complexity of technology prediction are discussed in the context of reduction of the forecast errors. Second, using a contradiction analysis, a set of problems related to ...

  6. OPAL Jet Chamber Prototype

    CERN Multimedia

    OPAL was one of the four experiments installed at the LEP particle accelerator from 1989 - 2000. OPAL's central tracking system consists of (in order of increasing radius) a silicon microvertex detector, a vertex detector, a jet chamber, and z-chambers. All the tracking detectors work by observing the ionization of atoms by charged particles passing by: when the atoms are ionized, electrons are knocked out of their atomic orbitals, and are then able to move freely in the detector. These ionization electrons are detected in the dirfferent parts of the tracking system. This piece is a prototype of the jet chambers

  7. Prototyping Augmented Reality

    CERN Document Server

    Mullen, Tony

    2011-01-01

    Learn to create augmented reality apps using Processing open-source programming language Augmented reality (AR) is used all over, and you may not even realize it. Smartphones overlay data onto live camera views to show homes for sale, restaurants, or historical sites. American football broadcasts use AR to show the invisible first-down line on the field to TV viewers. Nike and Budweiser, among others, have used AR in ads. Now, you can learn to create AR prototypes using 3D data, Processing open-source programming language, and other languages. This unique book is an easy-to-follow guide on how

  8. Nightshade Prototype Experiments (Silverleaf)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Danielson, Jeremy [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Bauer, Amy L. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-12-23

    The Red Sage campaign is a series of subcritical dynamic plutonium experiments designed to measure ejecta. Nightshade, the first experiments in Red Sage scheduled for fiscal year 2019, will measure the amount of ejecta emission into vacuum from a double-­shocked plutonium surface. To address the major technical risks in Nightshade, a Level 2 milestone was developed for fiscal year 2016. Silverleaf, a series of four experiments, was executed at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in July and August 2016 to demonstrate a prototype of the Nightshade package and to satisfy this Level 2 milestone. This report is documentation that Red Sage Level 2 milestone requirements were successfully met.

  9. Uncertainty Analysis of Multi-Model Flood Forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erich J. Plate

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper demonstrates, by means of a systematic uncertainty analysis, that the use of outputs from more than one model can significantly improve conditional forecasts of discharges or water stages, provided the models are structurally different. Discharge forecasts from two models and the actual forecasted discharge are assumed to form a three-dimensional joint probability density distribution (jpdf, calibrated on long time series of data. The jpdf is decomposed into conditional probability density distributions (cpdf by means of Bayes formula, as suggested and explored by Krzysztofowicz in a series of papers. In this paper his approach is simplified to optimize conditional forecasts for any set of two forecast models. Its application is demonstrated by means of models developed in a study of flood forecasting for station Stung Treng on the middle reach of the Mekong River in South-East Asia. Four different forecast models were used and pairwise combined: forecast with no model, with persistence model, with a regression model, and with a rainfall-runoff model. Working with cpdfs requires determination of dependency among variables, for which linear regressions are required, as was done by Krzysztofowicz. His Bayesian approach based on transforming observed probability distributions of discharges and forecasts into normal distributions is also explored. Results obtained with his method for normal prior and likelihood distributions are identical to results from direct multiple regressions. Furthermore, it is shown that in the present case forecast accuracy is only marginally improved, if Weibull distributed basic data were converted into normally distributed variables.

  10. A New Strategy for Short-Term Load Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Yang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Electricity is a special energy which is hard to store, so the electricity demand forecasting remains an important problem. Accurate short-term load forecasting (STLF plays a vital role in power systems because it is the essential part of power system planning and operation, and it is also fundamental in many applications. Considering that an individual forecasting model usually cannot work very well for STLF, a hybrid model based on the seasonal ARIMA model and BP neural network is presented in this paper to improve the forecasting accuracy. Firstly the seasonal ARIMA model is adopted to forecast the electric load demand day ahead; then, by using the residual load demand series obtained in this forecasting process as the original series, the follow-up residual series is forecasted by BP neural network; finally, by summing up the forecasted residual series and the forecasted load demand series got by seasonal ARIMA model, the final load demand forecasting series is obtained. Case studies show that the new strategy is quite useful to improve the accuracy of STLF.

  11. Real time flood forecasting in the Upper Danube basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nester Thomas

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper reports on experience with developing the flood forecasting model for the Upper Danube basin and its operational use since 2006. The model system consists of hydrological and hydrodynamic components, and involves precipitation forecasts. The model parameters were estimated based on the dominant processes concept. Runoff data are assimilated in real time to update modelled soil moisture. An analysis of the model performance indicates 88% of the snow cover in the basin to be modelled correctly on more than 80% of the days. Runoff forecasting errors decrease with catchment area and increase with forecast lead time. The forecast ensemble spread is shown to be a meaningful indicator of the forecast uncertainty. During the 2013 flood, there was a tendency for the precipitation forecasts to underestimate event precipitation and for the runoff model to overestimate runoff generation which resulted in, overall, rather accurate runoff forecasts. It is suggested that the human forecaster plays an essential role in interpreting the model results and, if needed, adjusting them before issuing the forecasts to the general public.

  12. Models of Investor Forecasting Behavior — Experimental Evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Federico Bonetto

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Different forecasting behaviors affect investors’ trading decisions and lead to qualitatively different asset price trajectories. It has been shown in the literature that the weights that investors place on observed asset price changes when forecasting future price changes, and the nature of their confidence when price changes are forecast, determine whether price bubbles, price crashes, and unpredictable price cycles occur. In this paper, we report the results of behavioral experiments involving multiple investors who participated in a market for a virtual asset. Our goal is to study investors’ forecast formation. We conducted three experimental sessions with different participants in each session. We fit different models of forecast formation to the observed data. There is strong evidence that the investors forecast future prices by extrapolating past price changes, even when they know the fundamental value of the asset exactly and the extrapolated forecasts differ significantly from the fundamental value. The rational expectations hypothesis seems inconsistent with the observed forecasts. The forecasting models of all participants that best fit the observed forecasting data were of the type that cause price bubbles and cycles in dynamical systems models, and price bubbles and cycles ended up occurring in all three sessions.

  13. Financial forecasts accuracy in Brazil's social security system.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Patrick Alves da Silva

    Full Text Available Long-term social security statistical forecasts produced and disseminated by the Brazilian government aim to provide accurate results that would serve as background information for optimal policy decisions. These forecasts are being used as support for the government's proposed pension reform that plans to radically change the Brazilian Constitution insofar as Social Security is concerned. However, the reliability of official results is uncertain since no systematic evaluation of these forecasts has ever been published by the Brazilian government or anyone else. This paper aims to present a study of the accuracy and methodology of the instruments used by the Brazilian government to carry out long-term actuarial forecasts. We base our research on an empirical and probabilistic analysis of the official models. Our empirical analysis shows that the long-term Social Security forecasts are systematically biased in the short term and have significant errors that render them meaningless in the long run. Moreover, the low level of transparency in the methods impaired the replication of results published by the Brazilian Government and the use of outdated data compromises forecast results. In the theoretical analysis, based on a mathematical modeling approach, we discuss the complexity and limitations of the macroeconomic forecast through the computation of confidence intervals. We demonstrate the problems related to error measurement inherent to any forecasting process. We then extend this exercise to the computation of confidence intervals for Social Security forecasts. This mathematical exercise raises questions about the degree of reliability of the Social Security forecasts.

  14. Mobile Prototyping Platforms for Remote Engineering Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karsten Henke

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a low-cost mobile communication platform as a universal rapid-prototyping system, which is based on the Quadrocopter concept. At the Integrated Hardware and Software Systems Group at the Ilmenau University of Technology these mobile platforms are used to motivate bachelor and master students to study Computer Engineering sciences. This could be done by increasing their interest in technical issues, using this platform as integral part of a new ad-hoc lab to demonstrate different aspects in the area of Mobile Communication as well as universal rapid prototyping nodes to investigate different mechanisms for self-organized mobile communication systems within the International Graduate School on Mobile Communications. Beside the three fields of application, the paper describes the current architecture concept of the mobile prototyping platform as well as the chosen control mechanism and the assigned sensor systems to fulfill all the required tasks.

  15. Generalizing Prototype Theory: A Formal Quantum Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diederik eAerts

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Theories of natural language and concepts have been unable to model the flexibility, creativity, context-dependence, and emergence, exhibited by words, concepts and their combinations. The mathematical formalism of quantum theory has instead been successful in capturing these phenomena such as graded membership, situational meaning, composition of categories, and also more complex decision making situations, which cannot be modeled in traditional probabilistic approaches. We show how a formal quantum approach to concepts and their combinations can provide a powerful extension of prototype theory. We explain how prototypes can interfere in conceptual combinations as a consequence of their contextual interactions, and provide an illustration of this using an intuitive wave-like diagram. This quantum-conceptual approach gives new life to original prototype theory, without however making it a privileged concept theory, as we explain at the end of our paper.

  16. ABOUT MODERN TECHNICAL GRAPHICS USING IN THE VIRTUAL PROTOTYPING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GHERGHINA George

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents aspects concerning the using of modern technical graphics elements in the virtual prototyping. The virtual prototyping is a process which uses a virtual prototype in place of physical prototype for the testing and the evaluation of specific features of designed product. The virtual prototype is created by computer such as it could assign the specific features as close as possible to the real conditions which permit its function simulation in the conditions for which is designed. The virtual prototyping permits the replacing of classical design process, although, and the elaboration of graphicalm documentation, which represent an important work volume – with CAD/CAM systems in the increased efficiency conditions.

  17. A Rapid Prototyping Environment for Wireless Communication Embedded Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bryan A. Jones

    2003-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces a rapid prototyping methodology which overcomes important barriers in the design and implementation of digital signal processing (DSP algorithms and systems on embedded hardware platforms, such as cellular phones. This paper describes rapid prototyping in terms of a simulation/prototype bridge and in terms of appropriate language design. The simulation/prototype bridge combines the strengths of simulation and of prototyping, allowing the designer to develop and evaluate next-generation communications systems, partly in simulation on a host computer and partly as a prototype on embedded hardware. Appropriate language design allows designers to express a communications system as a block diagram, in which each block represents an algorithm specified by a set of equations. Software tools developed for this paper implement both concepts, and have been successfully used in the development of a next-generation code division multiple access (CDMA cellular wireless communications system.

  18. Assessing flood forecast uncertainty with fuzzy arithmetic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    de Bruyn Bertrand

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Providing forecasts for flow rates and water levels during floods have to be associated with uncertainty estimates. The forecast sources of uncertainty are plural. For hydrological forecasts (rainfall-runoff performed using a deterministic hydrological model with basic physics, two main sources can be identified. The first obvious source is the forcing data: rainfall forecast data are supplied in real time by meteorological forecasting services to the Flood Forecasting Service within a range between a lowest and a highest predicted discharge. These two values define an uncertainty interval for the rainfall variable provided on a given watershed. The second source of uncertainty is related to the complexity of the modeled system (the catchment impacted by the hydro-meteorological phenomenon, the number of variables that may describe the problem and their spatial and time variability. The model simplifies the system by reducing the number of variables to a few parameters. Thus it contains an intrinsic uncertainty. This model uncertainty is assessed by comparing simulated and observed rates for a large number of hydro-meteorological events. We propose a method based on fuzzy arithmetic to estimate the possible range of flow rates (and levels of water making a forecast based on possible rainfalls provided by forcing and uncertainty model. The model uncertainty is here expressed as a range of possible values. Both rainfall and model uncertainties are combined with fuzzy arithmetic. This method allows to evaluate the prediction uncertainty range. The Flood Forecasting Service of Oise and Aisne rivers, in particular, monitors the upstream watershed of the Oise at Hirson. This watershed’s area is 310 km2. Its response time is about 10 hours. Several hydrological models are calibrated for flood forecasting in this watershed and use the rainfall forecast. This method presents the advantage to be easily implemented. Moreover, it permits to be carried out

  19. Directed Activities Related to Text: Text Analysis and Text Reconstruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Florence; Greene, Terry

    This paper describes Directed Activities Related to Text (DART), procedures that were developed and are used in the Reading for Learning Project at the University of Nottingham (England) to enhance learning from texts and that fall into two broad categories: (1) text analysis procedures, which require students to engage in some form of analysis of…

  20. A Simple Hybrid Model for Short-Term Load Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suseelatha Annamareddi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper proposes a simple hybrid model to forecast the electrical load data based on the wavelet transform technique and double exponential smoothing. The historical noisy load series data is decomposed into deterministic and fluctuation components using suitable wavelet coefficient thresholds and wavelet reconstruction method. The variation characteristics of the resulting series are analyzed to arrive at reasonable thresholds that yield good denoising results. The constitutive series are then forecasted using appropriate exponential adaptive smoothing models. A case study performed on California energy market data demonstrates that the proposed method can offer high forecasting precision for very short-term forecasts, considering a time horizon of two weeks.

  1. A Hybrid Model for Forecasting Sales in Turkish Paint Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alp Ustundag

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Sales forecasting is important for facilitating effective and efficient allocation of scarce resources. However, how to best model and forecast sales has been a long-standing issue. There is no best forecasting method that is applicable in all circumstances. Therefore, confidence in the accuracy of sales forecasts is achieved by corroborating the results using two or more methods. This paper proposes a hybrid forecasting model that uses an artificial intelligence method (AI with multiple linear regression (MLR to predict product sales for the largest Turkish paint producer. In the hybrid model, three different AI methods, fuzzy rule-based system (FRBS, artificial neural network (ANN and adaptive neuro fuzzy network (ANFIS, are used and compared to each other. The results indicate that FRBS yields better forecasting accuracy in terms of root mean squared error (RMSE and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE.

  2. DataCollection Prototyping

    CERN Multimedia

    Beck, H.P.

    DataCollection is a subsystem of the Trigger, DAQ & DCS project responsible for the movement of event data from the ROS to the High Level Triggers. This includes data from Regions of Interest (RoIs) for Level 2, building complete events for the Event Filter and finally transferring accepted events to Mass Storage. It also handles passing the LVL1 RoI pointers and the allocation of Level 2 processors and load balancing of Event Building. During the last 18 months DataCollection has developed a common architecture for the hardware and software required. This involved a radical redesign integrating ideas from separate parts of earlier TDAQ work. An important milestone for this work, now achieved, has been to demonstrate this subsystem in the so-called Phase 2A Integrated Prototype. This prototype comprises the various TDAQ hardware and software components (ROSs, LVL2, etc.) under the control of the TDAQ Online software. The basic functionality has been demonstrated on small testbeds (~8-10 processing nodes)...

  3. OMS FDIR: Initial prototyping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Eric W.; Hanson, Matthew A.

    1990-01-01

    The Space Station Freedom Program (SSFP) Operations Management System (OMS) will automate major management functions which coordinate the operations of onboard systems, elements and payloads. The objectives of OMS are to improve safety, reliability and productivity while reducing maintenance and operations cost. This will be accomplished by using advanced automation techniques to automate much of the activity currently performed by the flight crew and ground personnel. OMS requirements have been organized into five task groups: (1) Planning, Execution and Replanning; (2) Data Gathering, Preprocessing and Storage; (3) Testing and Training; (4) Resource Management; and (5) Caution and Warning and Fault Management for onboard subsystems. The scope of this prototyping effort falls within the Fault Management requirements group. The prototyping will be performed in two phases. Phase 1 is the development of an onboard communications network fault detection, isolation, and reconfiguration (FDIR) system. Phase 2 will incorporate global FDIR for onboard systems. Research into the applicability of expert systems, object-oriented programming, fuzzy sets, neural networks and other advanced techniques will be conducted. The goals and technical approach for this new SSFP research project are discussed here.

  4. The potential value of seasonal forecasts in a changing climate

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Winsemius, HC

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available -range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) seasonal forecasting system. The focus is on the frequency of dry spells as well as the frequency of heat stress conditions expressed in the Temperature Heat Index. In areas where their frequency of occurrence increases...

  5. Photovoltaics (PV System Energy Forecast on the Basis of the Local Weather Forecast: Problems, Uncertainties and Solutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristijan Brecl

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available When integrating a photovoltaic system into a smart zero-energy or energy-plus building, or just to lower the electricity bill by rising the share of the self-consumption in a private house, it is very important to have a photovoltaic power energy forecast for the next day(s. While the commercially available forecasting services might not meet the household prosumers interests due to the price or complexity we have developed a forecasting methodology that is based on the common weather forecast. Since the forecasted meteorological data does not include the solar irradiance information, but only the weather condition, the uncertainty of the results is relatively high. However, in the presented approach, irradiance is calculated from discrete weather conditions and with correlation of forecasted meteorological data, an RMS error of 65%, and a R2 correlation factor of 0.85 is feasible.

  6. Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part II: Ensemble forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

    2009-04-01

    In part I of this study, the operational flood forecasting system in Bavaria and an approach to identify and quantify forecast uncertainty was introduced. The approach is split into the calculation of an empirical 'overall error' from archived forecasts and the calculation of an empirical 'model error' based on hydrometeorological forecast tests, where rainfall observations were used instead of forecasts. The 'model error' can especially in upstream catchments where forecast uncertainty is strongly dependent on the current predictability of the atrmosphere be superimposed on the spread of a hydrometeorological ensemble forecast. In Bavaria, two meteorological ensemble prediction systems are currently tested for operational use: the 16-member COSMO-LEPS forecast and a poor man's ensemble composed of DWD GME, DWD Cosmo-EU, NCEP GFS, Aladin-Austria, MeteoSwiss Cosmo-7. The determination of the overall forecast uncertainty is dependent on the catchment characteristics: 1. Upstream catchment with high influence of weather forecast a) A hydrological ensemble forecast is calculated using each of the meteorological forecast members as forcing. b) Corresponding to the characteristics of the meteorological ensemble forecast, each resulting forecast hydrograph can be regarded as equally likely. c) The 'model error' distribution, with parameters dependent on hydrological case and lead time, is added to each forecast timestep of each ensemble member d) For each forecast timestep, the overall (i.e. over all 'model error' distribution of each ensemble member) error distribution is calculated e) From this distribution, the uncertainty range on a desired level (here: the 10% and 90% percentile) is extracted and drawn as forecast envelope. f) As the mean or median of an ensemble forecast does not necessarily exhibit meteorologically sound temporal evolution, a single hydrological forecast termed 'lead forecast' is chosen and shown in addition to the uncertainty bounds. This can be

  7. A Customizable Text Classifier for Text Mining

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yun-liang Zhang

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Text mining deals with complex and unstructured texts. Usually a particular collection of texts that is specified to one or more domains is necessary. We have developed a customizable text classifier for users to mine the collection automatically. It derives from the sentence category of the HNC theory and corresponding techniques. It can start with a few texts, and it can adjust automatically or be adjusted by user. The user can also control the number of domains chosen and decide the standard with which to choose the texts based on demand and abundance of materials. The performance of the classifier varies with the user's choice.

  8. Prototypes as Platforms for Participation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Horst, Willem

    developers, and design it accordingly. Designing a flexible prototype in combination with supportive tools to be used by both interaction designers and non-designers during development is introduced as a way to open up the prototyping process to these users. Furthermore I demonstrate how such a flexible...... on prototyping, by bringing to attention that the prototype itself is an object of design, with its users and use context, which deserves further attention. Moreover, in this work I present concrete tools and methods that can be used by interaction designers in practice. As such this work addresses both......The development of interactive products in industry is an activity involving different disciplines – such as different kinds of designers, engineers, marketers and managers – in which prototypes play an important role. On the one hand, prototypes can be powerful boundary objects and an effective...

  9. Prototype Stilbene Neutron Collar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prasad, M. K. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Shumaker, D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Snyderman, N. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Verbeke, J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Wong, J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2016-10-26

    A neutron collar using stilbene organic scintillator cells for fast neutron counting is described for the assay of fresh low enriched uranium (LEU) fuel assemblies. The prototype stilbene collar has a form factor similar to standard He-3 based collars and uses an AmLi interrogation neutron source. This report describes the simulation of list mode neutron correlation data on various fuel assemblies including some with neutron absorbers (burnable Gd poisons). Calibration curves (doubles vs 235U linear mass density) are presented for both thermal and fast (with Cd lining) modes of operation. It is shown that the stilbene collar meets or exceeds the current capabilities of He-3 based neutron collars. A self-consistent assay methodology, uniquely suited to the stilbene collar, using triples is described which complements traditional assay based on doubles calibration curves.

  10. Space Weather Forecasting at IZMIRAN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaidash, S. P.; Belov, A. V.; Abunina, M. A.; Abunin, A. A.

    2017-12-01

    Since 1998, the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation (IZMIRAN) has had an operating heliogeophysical service—the Center for Space Weather Forecasts. This center transfers the results of basic research in solar-terrestrial physics into daily forecasting of various space weather parameters for various lead times. The forecasts are promptly available to interested consumers. This article describes the center and the main types of forecasts it provides: solar and geomagnetic activity, magnetospheric electron fluxes, and probabilities of proton increases. The challenges associated with the forecasting of effects of coronal mass ejections and coronal holes are discussed. Verification data are provided for the center's forecasts.

  11. Naval Prototype Optical Interferometer (NPOI)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — FUNCTION: Used for astrometry and astronomical imaging, the Naval Prototype Optical Interferometer (NPOI) is a distributed aperture optical telescope. It is operated...

  12. Mobile prototyping with Axure 7

    CERN Document Server

    Hacker, Will

    2013-01-01

    This book is a step-by-step tutorial which includes hands-on examples and downloadable Axure files to get you started with mobile prototyping immediately. You will learn how to develop an application from scratch, and will be guided through each and every step.If you are a mobile-centric developer/designer, or someone who would like to take their Axure prototyping skills to the next level and start designing and testing mobile prototypes, this book is ideal for you. You should be familiar with prototyping and Axure specifically, before you read this book.

  13. Assessment of storm forecast

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Huus Bjerge, Martin

    When wind speed exceeds a certain value, wind turbines shut-down in order to protect their structure. This leads to sudden wind plants shut down and to new challenges concerning the secure operation of the pan-European electric system with future large scale offshore wind power. This task aims...... stopped, completely or partially, producing due to extreme wind speeds. Wind speed and power measurements from those events are presented and compared to the forecast available at Energinet.dk. The analysis looked at wind speed and wind power forecast. The main conclusion of the analysis is that the wind...... to consider it an EWP) and that the available wind speed forecasts are given as a mean wind speed over a rather large area. At wind power level, the analysis shows that prediction of accurate production levels from a wind farm experiencing EWP is rather poor. This is partially because the power curve...

  14. Financial Analysts’ Forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stæhr, Simone

    . The primary focus is on financial analysts in the task of conducting earnings forecasts while a secondary focus is on investors’ abilities to interpret and make use of these forecasts. Simply put, financial analysts can be seen as information intermediators receiving inputs to their analyses from firm...... in the decision making and the magnitude of these constraints does sometimes vary with personal traits. Therefore, to the extent that financial analysts are subjects to behavioral biases their outputs to the investors are likely to be biased by their interpretation of information. Because investors need accuracy...... management and providing outputs to the investors. Amongst various outputs from the analysts are forecasts of earnings. According to decision theories mostly from the literature in psychology all humans are affected by cognitive constraints to some degree. These constraints may lead to unintentional biases...

  15. Wind power forecast

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pestana, Rui [Rede Electrica Nacional (REN), S.A., Lisboa (Portugal). Dept. Systems and Development System Operator; Trancoso, Ana Rosa; Delgado Domingos, Jose [Univ. Tecnica de Lisboa (Portugal). Seccao de Ambiente e Energia

    2012-07-01

    Accurate wind power forecast are needed to reduce integration costs in the electric grid caused by wind inherent variability. Currently, Portugal has a significant wind power penetration level and consequently the need to have reliable wind power forecasts at different temporal scales, including localized events such as ramps. This paper provides an overview of the methodologies used by REN to forecast wind power at national level, based on statistical and probabilistic combinations of NWP and measured data with the aim of improving accuracy of pure NWP. Results show that significant improvement can be achieved with statistical combination with persistence in the short-term and with probabilistic combination in the medium-term. NWP are also able to detect ramp events with 3 day notice to the operational planning. (orig.)

  16. FORECASTING OF PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF NEW VEHICLES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. S. Krasheninin

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The research work focuses on forecasting of performance evaluation of the tractive and non-tractive vehicles that will satisfy and meet the needs and requirements of the railway industry, which is constantly evolving. Methodology. Analysis of the technical condition of the existing fleet of rolling stock (tractive and non-tractive of Ukrainian Railways shows a substantial reduction that occurs in connection with its moral and physical wear and tear, as well as insufficient and limited purchase of new units of the tractive and non-tractive rolling stock in the desired quantity. In this situation there is a necessity of search of the methods for determination of rolling stock technical characteristics. One of such urgent and effective measures is to conduct forecasting of the defining characteristics of the vehicles based on the processes of their reproduction in conditions of limited resources using a continuous exponential function. The function of the growth rate of the projected figure degree for the vehicle determines the logistic characteristic that with unlimited resources has the form of an exponent, and with low ones – that of a line. Findings. The data obtained according to the proposed method allowed determining the expected (future value, that is the ratio of load to volume of the body for non-tractive rolling stock (gondola cars and weight-to-power for tractive rolling stock, the degree of forecast reliability and the standard forecast error, which show high prediction accuracy for the completed procedure. As a result, this will allow estimating the required characteristics of vehicles in the forecast year with high accuracy. Originality. The concept of forecasting the characteristics of the vehicles for decision-making on the evaluation of their prospects was proposed. Practical value. The forecasting methodology will reliably determine the technical parameters of tractive and non-tractive rolling stock, which will meet

  17. FORECASTING CAREER PLANNING OF STUDENT OF UNIVERSITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandra Danilenko

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In this article the forecasting model of career planning of student of University. This model has an empirical nature and lets to control the process and the content of student learning taking into account of his individual characteristics and the predictions of his potential careers.

  18. Seasonal precipitation forecast skill over Iran

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Shirvani, A

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available . For this model and lead time, the Pearson correlation between the area-averaged of the observed and forecasts over the study area for the OND, November-December-January (NDJ), December-January-February (DJF) and January-February-March (JFM) seasons were 0.68, 0...

  19. Overview, comparative assessment and recommendations of forecasting models for short-term water demand prediction

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Anele, AO

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available -term water demand (STWD) forecasts. In view of this, an overview of forecasting methods for STWD prediction is presented. Based on that, a comparative assessment of the performance of alternative forecasting models from the different methods is studied. Times...

  20. DEVELOPMENT OF THE PROBABLY-GEOGRAPHICAL FORECAST METHOD FOR DANGEROUS WEATHER PHENOMENA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena S. Popova

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a scheme method of probably-geographical forecast for dangerous weather phenomena. Discuss two general realization stages of this method. Emphasize that developing method is response to actual questions of modern weather forecast and it’s appropriate phenomena: forecast is carried out for specific point in space and appropriate moment of time.

  1. Forecast of auroral activity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lui, A.T.Y.

    2004-01-01

    A new technique is developed to predict auroral activity based on a sample of over 9000 auroral sites identified in global auroral images obtained by an ultraviolet imager on the NASA Polar satellite during a 6-month period. Four attributes of auroral activity sites are utilized in forecasting, namely, the area, the power, and the rates of change in area and power. This new technique is quite accurate, as indicated by the high true skill scores for forecasting three different levels of auroral dissipation during the activity lifetime. The corresponding advanced warning time ranges from 22 to 79 min from low to high dissipation levels

  2. Forecasting Turbine Icing Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davis, Neil; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Clausen, Niels-Erik

    2012-01-01

    In this study, we present a method for forecasting icing events. The method is validated at two European wind farms in with known icing events. The icing model used was developed using current ice accretion methods, and newly developed ablation algorithms. The model is driven by inputs from the WRF...... mesoscale model, allowing for both climatological estimates of icing and short term icing forecasts. The current model was able to detect periods of icing reasonably well at the warmer site. However at the cold climate site, the model was not able to remove ice quickly enough leading to large ice...

  3. Spatial load forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Willis, H.L.; Engel, M.V.; Buri, M.J.

    1995-04-01

    The reliability, efficiency, and economy of a power delivery system depend mainly on how well its substations, transmission lines, and distribution feeders are located within the utility service area, and how well their capacities match power needs in their respective localities. Often, utility planners are forced to commit to sites, rights of way, and equipment capacities year in advance. A necessary element of effective expansion planning is a forecast of where and how much demand must be served by the future T and D system. This article reports that a three-stage method forecasts with accuracy and detail, allowing meaningful determination of sties and sizes for future substation, transmission, and distribution facilities.

  4. Forecasting biodiversity in breeding birds using best practices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David J. Harris

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Biodiversity forecasts are important for conservation, management, and evaluating how well current models characterize natural systems. While the number of forecasts for biodiversity is increasing, there is little information available on how well these forecasts work. Most biodiversity forecasts are not evaluated to determine how well they predict future diversity, fail to account for uncertainty, and do not use time-series data that captures the actual dynamics being studied. We addressed these limitations by using best practices to explore our ability to forecast the species richness of breeding birds in North America. We used hindcasting to evaluate six different modeling approaches for predicting richness. Hindcasts for each method were evaluated annually for a decade at 1,237 sites distributed throughout the continental United States. All models explained more than 50% of the variance in richness, but none of them consistently outperformed a baseline model that predicted constant richness at each site. The best practices implemented in this study directly influenced the forecasts and evaluations. Stacked species distribution models and “naive” forecasts produced poor estimates of uncertainty and accounting for this resulted in these models dropping in the relative performance compared to other models. Accounting for observer effects improved model performance overall, but also changed the rank ordering of models because it did not improve the accuracy of the “naive” model. Considering the forecast horizon revealed that the prediction accuracy decreased across all models as the time horizon of the forecast increased. To facilitate the rapid improvement of biodiversity forecasts, we emphasize the value of specific best practices in making forecasts and evaluating forecasting methods.

  5. Assimilation scheme of the Mediterranean Forecasting System: operational implementation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Demirov

    Full Text Available This paper describes the operational implementation of the data assimilation scheme for the Mediterranean Forecasting System Pilot Project (MFSPP. The assimilation scheme, System for Ocean Forecast and Analysis (SOFA, is a reduced order Optimal Interpolation (OI scheme. The order reduction is achieved by projection of the state vector into vertical Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF. The data assimilated are Sea Level Anomaly (SLA and temperature profiles from Expandable Bathy Termographs (XBT. The data collection, quality control, assimilation and forecast procedures are all done in Near Real Time (NRT. The OI is used intermittently with an assimilation cycle of one week so that an analysis is produced once a week. The forecast is then done for ten days following the analysis day. The root mean square (RMS between the model forecast and the analysis (the forecast RMS is below 0.7°C in the surface layers and below 0.2°C in the layers deeper than 200 m for all the ten forecast days. The RMS between forecast and initial condition (persistence RMS is higher than forecast RMS after the first day. This means that the model improves forecast with respect to persistence. The calculation of the misfit between the forecast and the satellite data suggests that the model solution represents well the main space and time variability of the SLA except for a relatively short period of three – four weeks during the summer when the data show a fast transition between the cyclonic winter and anti-cyclonic summer regimes. This occurs in the surface layers that are not corrected by our assimilation scheme hypothesis. On the basis of the forecast skill scores analysis, conclusions are drawn about future improvements.

    Key words. Oceanography; general (marginal and semi-enclosed seas; numerical modeling; ocean prediction

  6. Assimilation scheme of the Mediterranean Forecasting System: operational implementation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Demirov

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the operational implementation of the data assimilation scheme for the Mediterranean Forecasting System Pilot Project (MFSPP. The assimilation scheme, System for Ocean Forecast and Analysis (SOFA, is a reduced order Optimal Interpolation (OI scheme. The order reduction is achieved by projection of the state vector into vertical Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF. The data assimilated are Sea Level Anomaly (SLA and temperature profiles from Expandable Bathy Termographs (XBT. The data collection, quality control, assimilation and forecast procedures are all done in Near Real Time (NRT. The OI is used intermittently with an assimilation cycle of one week so that an analysis is produced once a week. The forecast is then done for ten days following the analysis day. The root mean square (RMS between the model forecast and the analysis (the forecast RMS is below 0.7°C in the surface layers and below 0.2°C in the layers deeper than 200 m for all the ten forecast days. The RMS between forecast and initial condition (persistence RMS is higher than forecast RMS after the first day. This means that the model improves forecast with respect to persistence. The calculation of the misfit between the forecast and the satellite data suggests that the model solution represents well the main space and time variability of the SLA except for a relatively short period of three – four weeks during the summer when the data show a fast transition between the cyclonic winter and anti-cyclonic summer regimes. This occurs in the surface layers that are not corrected by our assimilation scheme hypothesis. On the basis of the forecast skill scores analysis, conclusions are drawn about future improvements. Key words. Oceanography; general (marginal and semi-enclosed seas; numerical modeling; ocean prediction

  7. Novel combination of reverse engineering and vapid prototyping in medicine

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Schenker, R

    1999-08-01

    Full Text Available The technologies of reverse engineering and rapid prototyping are emerging as useful new tools in medicine. One application is of particular interest in orthopaedic, dental and reconstructive surgery. It involves the imaging, modelling...

  8. Volatility Forecast in Crises and Expansions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergii Pypko

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available We build a discrete-time non-linear model for volatility forecasting purposes. This model belongs to the class of threshold-autoregressive models, where changes in regimes are governed by past returns. The ability to capture changes in volatility regimes and using more accurate volatility measures allow outperforming other benchmark models, such as linear heterogeneous autoregressive model and GARCH specifications. Finally, we show how to derive closed-form expression for multiple-step-ahead forecasting by exploiting information about the conditional distribution of returns.

  9. Forecasting Housing Approvals in Australia: Do Forecasters Herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Rülke

    2012-01-01

    Price trends in housing markets may reflect herding of market participants. A natural question is whether such herding, to the extent that it occurred, reflects herding in forecasts of professional forecasters. Using more than 6,000 forecasts of housing approvals for Australia, we did not find...

  10. MACROECONOMIC FORECASTING USING BAYESIAN VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Tutberidze

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available There are many arguments that can be advanced to support the forecasting activities of business entities. The underlying argument in favor of forecasting is that managerial decisions are significantly dependent on proper evaluation of future trends as market conditions are constantly changing and require a detailed analysis of future dynamics. The article discusses the importance of using reasonable macro-econometric tool by suggesting the idea of conditional forecasting through a Vector Autoregressive (VAR modeling framework. Under this framework, a macroeconomic model for Georgian economy is constructed with the few variables believed to be shaping business environment. Based on the model, forecasts of macroeconomic variables are produced, and three types of scenarios are analyzed - a baseline and two alternative ones. The results of the study provide confirmatory evidence that suggested methodology is adequately addressing the research phenomenon and can be used widely by business entities in responding their strategic and operational planning challenges. Given this set-up, it is shown empirically that Bayesian Vector Autoregressive approach provides reasonable forecasts for the variables of interest.

  11. Monitoring and forecasting Etna volcanic plumes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Scollo

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we describe the results of a project ongoing at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV. The objective is to develop and implement a system for monitoring and forecasting volcanic plumes of Etna. Monitoring is based at present by multispectral infrared measurements from the Spin Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager on board the Meteosat Second Generation geosynchronous satellite, visual and thermal cameras, and three radar disdrometers able to detect ash dispersal and fallout. Forecasting is performed by using automatic procedures for: i downloading weather forecast data from meteorological mesoscale models; ii running models of tephra dispersal, iii plotting hazard maps of volcanic ash dispersal and deposition for certain scenarios and, iv publishing the results on a web-site dedicated to the Italian Civil Protection. Simulations are based on eruptive scenarios obtained by analysing field data collected after the end of recent Etna eruptions. Forecasting is, hence, supported by plume observations carried out by the monitoring system. The system was tested on some explosive events occurred during 2006 and 2007 successfully. The potentiality use of monitoring and forecasting Etna volcanic plumes, in a way to prevent threats to aviation from volcanic ash, is finally discussed.

  12. Time Series Forecasting with Missing Values

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shin-Fu Wu

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Time series prediction has become more popular in various kinds of applications such as weather prediction, control engineering, financial analysis, industrial monitoring, etc. To deal with real-world problems, we are often faced with missing values in the data due to sensor malfunctions or human errors. Traditionally, the missing values are simply omitted or replaced by means of imputation methods. However, omitting those missing values may cause temporal discontinuity. Imputation methods, on the other hand, may alter the original time series. In this study, we propose a novel forecasting method based on least squares support vector machine (LSSVM. We employ the input patterns with the temporal information which is defined as local time index (LTI. Time series data as well as local time indexes are fed to LSSVM for doing forecasting without imputation. We compare the forecasting performance of our method with other imputation methods. Experimental results show that the proposed method is promising and is worth further investigations.

  13. CDM Convective Forecast Planning guidance

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CDM Convective Forecast Planning (CCFP) guidance product provides a foreast of en-route aviation convective hazards. The forecasts are updated every 2 hours and...

  14. Wireless Augmented Reality Prototype (WARP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devereaux, A. S.

    1999-01-01

    Initiated in January, 1997, under NASA's Office of Life and Microgravity Sciences and Applications, the Wireless Augmented Reality Prototype (WARP) is a means to leverage recent advances in communications, displays, imaging sensors, biosensors, voice recognition and microelectronics to develop a hands-free, tetherless system capable of real-time personal display and control of computer system resources. Using WARP, an astronaut may efficiently operate and monitor any computer-controllable activity inside or outside the vehicle or station. The WARP concept is a lightweight, unobtrusive heads-up display with a wireless wearable control unit. Connectivity to the external system is achieved through a high-rate radio link from the WARP personal unit to a base station unit installed into any system PC. The radio link has been specially engineered to operate within the high- interference, high-multipath environment of a space shuttle or space station module. Through this virtual terminal, the astronaut will be able to view and manipulate imagery, text or video, using voice commands to control the terminal operations. WARP's hands-free access to computer-based instruction texts, diagrams and checklists replaces juggling manuals and clipboards, and tetherless computer system access allows free motion throughout a cabin while monitoring and operating equipment.

  15. Are demand forecasting techniques applicable to libraries?

    OpenAIRE

    Sridhar, M. S.

    1984-01-01

    Examines the nature and limitations of demand forecasting, discuses plausible methods of forecasting demand for information, suggests some useful hints for demand forecasting and concludes by emphasizing unified approach to demand forecasting.

  16. Human talent forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nedelcu Bogdan

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The demand for talent has increased while the offer has declined and these worrying trends don’t seem to show any sign of change in the near future. According to Bloomberg Businessweek, USA, Canada, UK, and Japan (among many others will face varying degrees of talent shortages in almost every industry in the coming years. The performed study focuses on identifying patterns which relates to human skills. Recently, with the new demand and increasing visibility, human resources are seeking a more strategic role by harnessing data mining methods. This can be achieved by discovering generated patterns from existing useful data in HR databases. The main objective of the paper is to determine which data mining algorithm suits best for extracting knowledge from human resource data, when in it comes to determining how suited is a candidate for a specific job. First of all, it must be determined a way to evaluate a candidate as objective as possible and rate the candidate with a mark from 0 to 10. To do so, some data sets had to be generated with different numbers of values or different values and wore processed using Weka. The results had been plotted so that it would be easier to interpret. Also, the study shows the importance of using large volumes of data in order to take informed decisions has recently become extremely discussed in most organizations. While finances, marketing and other departments within a company receive data systems and customized analysis, human resources are still not supported by expert systems to process large data volumes. The software prototype designed for the experiment rates individuals (working for the company, or in trials on a scale from 0 to 10, offering the decision makers an objective analysis. This way, a company looking for talent will know whether the person applying for the job is suited or not, and how much the hiring will influence the overall rating of the department.

  17. Window prototypes during the project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schultz, Jørgen Munthe

    1996-01-01

    The conditions for the PASSYS test and the results of the measurements on one of the aerogel window prototypes are described.......The conditions for the PASSYS test and the results of the measurements on one of the aerogel window prototypes are described....

  18. Rapid prototyping: een veelbelovende methode

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haverman, T.M.; Karagozoglu, K.H.; Prins, H.; Schulten, E.A.J.M.; Forouzanfar, T.

    2013-01-01

    Rapid prototyping is a method which makes it possible to produce a three-dimensional model based on two-dimensional imaging. Various rapid prototyping methods are available for modelling, such as stereolithography, selective laser sintering, direct laser metal sintering, two-photon polymerization,

  19. Role model and prototype matching

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lykkegaard, Eva; Ulriksen, Lars

    2016-01-01

    ’ meetings with the role models affected their thoughts concerning STEM students and attending university. The regular self-to-prototype matching process was shown in real-life role-models meetings to be extended to a more complex three-way matching process between students’ self-perceptions, prototype...

  20. Virtual Reality for Prototyping Service Journeys

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Costas Boletsis

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The use of virtual elements for developing new service prototyping environments and more realistic simulations has been suggested as a way to optimise the service prototyping process. This work examines the application of virtual reality (VR in prototyping service journeys and it hypothesises that VR can recreate service journeys in a highly immersive, agile, and inexpensive manner, thus allowing users to have a representative service experience and enabling service designers to extract high-quality user feedback. To that end, a new service prototyping method, called VR service walkthrough, is presented and evaluated through an empirical comparative study. A VR service walkthrough is a virtual simulation of a service journey, representing how the service unfolds over space and time. A comparative study between the VR service walkthrough method and an adapted service walkthrough method evaluates the application of both methods using a location-based audio tour guide service as a case study. Two user groups (each with 21 users were used to evaluate both methods based on two factors: the user experience they offered and the subjective meaningfulness and quality of feedback they produced. Results show that the VR service walkthrough method gave a performance similar to that of the service walkthrough method. It was also able to communicate the service concept in an immersive way and foster constructive feedback.

  1. Development of visibility forecasting modeling framework for the Lower Fraser Valley of British Columbia using Canada's Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    So, Rita; Teakles, Andrew; Baik, Jonathan; Vingarzan, Roxanne; Jones, Keith

    2018-05-01

    Visibility degradation, one of the most noticeable indicators of poor air quality, can occur despite relatively low levels of particulate matter when the risk to human health is low. The availability of timely and reliable visibility forecasts can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the anticipated air quality conditions to better inform local jurisdictions and the public. This paper describes the development of a visibility forecasting modeling framework, which leverages the existing air quality and meteorological forecasts from Canada's operational Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System (RAQDPS) for the Lower Fraser Valley of British Columbia. A baseline model (GM-IMPROVE) was constructed using the revised IMPROVE algorithm based on unprocessed forecasts from the RAQDPS. Three additional prototypes (UMOS-HYB, GM-MLR, GM-RF) were also developed and assessed for forecast performance of up to 48 hr lead time during various air quality and meteorological conditions. Forecast performance was assessed by examining their ability to provide both numerical and categorical forecasts in the form of 1-hr total extinction and Visual Air Quality Ratings (VAQR), respectively. While GM-IMPROVE generally overestimated extinction more than twofold, it had skill in forecasting the relative species contribution to visibility impairment, including ammonium sulfate and ammonium nitrate. Both statistical prototypes, GM-MLR and GM-RF, performed well in forecasting 1-hr extinction during daylight hours, with correlation coefficients (R) ranging from 0.59 to 0.77. UMOS-HYB, a prototype based on postprocessed air quality forecasts without additional statistical modeling, provided reasonable forecasts during most daylight hours. In terms of categorical forecasts, the best prototype was approximately 75 to 87% correct, when forecasting for a condensed three-category VAQR. A case study, focusing on a poor visual air quality yet low Air Quality Health Index episode

  2. Virtual Prototyping at CERN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gennaro, Silvano De

    The VENUS (Virtual Environment Navigation in the Underground Sites) project is probably the largest Virtual Reality application to Engineering design in the world. VENUS is just over one year old and offers a fully immersive and stereoscopic "flythru" of the LHC pits for the proposed experiments, including the experimental area equipment and the surface models that are being prepared for a territorial impact study. VENUS' Virtual Prototypes are an ideal replacement for the wooden models traditionally build for the past CERN machines, as they are generated directly from the EUCLID CAD files, therefore they are totally reliable, they can be updated in a matter of minutes, and they allow designers to explore them from inside, in a one-to-one scale. Navigation can be performed on the computer screen, on a stereoscopic large projection screen, or in immersive conditions, with an helmet and 3D mouse. By using specialised collision detection software, the computer can find optimal paths to lower each detector part into the pits and position it to destination, letting us visualize the whole assembly probess. During construction, these paths can be fed to a robot controller, which can operate the bridge cranes and build LHC almost without human intervention. VENUS is currently developing a multiplatform VR browser that will let the whole HEP community access LHC's Virtual Protoypes over the web. Many interesting things took place during the conference on Virtual Reality. For more information please refer to the Virtual Reality section.

  3. UA1 prototype detector

    CERN Multimedia

    1980-01-01

    Prototype of UA1 central detector inside a plexi tube. The UA1 experiment ran at CERN's Super Proton Synchrotron and made the Nobel Prize winning discovery of W and Z particles in 1983. The UA1 central detector was crucial to understanding the complex topology of proton-antiproton events. It played a most important role in identifying a handful of Ws and Zs among billions of collisions. The detector was essentially a wire chamber - a 6-chamber cylindrical assembly 5.8 m long and 2.3 m in diameter, the largest imaging drift chamber of its day. It recorded the tracks of charged particles curving in a 0.7 Tesla magnetic field, measuring their momentum, the sign of their electric charge and their rate of energy loss (dE/dx). Atoms in the argon-ethane gas mixture filling the chambers were ionised by the passage of charged particles. The electrons which were released drifted along an electric field shaped by field wires and were collected on sense wires. The geometrical arrangement of the 17000 field wires and 6...

  4. Afriphone Literature as a Prototypical Form of African Literature: Insights from Prototype Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodomo, Adams

    2016-01-01

    What is the most prototypical form of African literature? Shouldn't we be using African languages to produce African literary texts, shouldn't we produce more Afriphone African literature compared to Europhone African literature or Afro-Europhone literature? This issue underlies the reality that the vast majority of African writers presumably…

  5. Forecasting of superconducting compounds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Savitskii, E.M.; Gribulya, V.G.; Kiseleva, N.N.

    1981-01-01

    In forecasting new superconducting intermetallic compounds of the A15 and Mo 3 Se types most promising from the viewpoint of high critical temperature Tsub(c), high critical magnetic fields Hsub(c), and high critical currents and in estimating their transition temperature it is proposed to apply cybernetic methods of computer learning

  6. Forecast of nuclear energetics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sikora, W

    1976-01-01

    The forecast concerning the development of nuclear energetics is presented. Some information on economics of nuclear power plants is given. The nuclear fuel reserves are estimated on the background of power resources of the world. The safety and environment protection problems are mentioned.

  7. Climate Forecast System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Forecast System Home News Organization Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services. The NCEP Climate when using the CFS Reanalysis (CFSR) data. Saha, Suranjana, and Coauthors, 2010: The NCEP Climate

  8. Foresight and Forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kilbourn, Kyle; Bay, Marie Brøndum

    In predicting areas of growth, public innovation projects may rely on optimistic visions of technology still in development as a way of ensuring novelty for funding. This paper explores what happens when forecasts of robotic technology meets the practice of sterile supply in a preliminary stage...

  9. Hydrology and flow forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vrijling, J.K.; Kwadijk, J.; Van Duivendijk, J.; Van Gelder, P.; Pang, H.; Rao, S.Q.; Wang, G.Q.; Huang, X.Q.

    2002-01-01

    We have studied and applied the statistic model (i.e. MMC) and hydrological models to Upper Yellow River. This report introduces the results and some conclusions from the model. The three models, MMC, MWBM and NAM, have be applied in the research area. The forecasted discharge by the three models

  10. NWS Marine Forecast Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    of Commerce Ocean Prediction Center National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Analysis & Unified Surface Analysis Ocean Ocean Products Ice & Icebergs NIC Ice Products NAIS Iceberg Analysis Social Media Facebook Twitter YouTube Search Search For Go NWS All NOAA NWS Marine Forecast Areas

  11. The Latest Forecast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laurence, David

    2002-01-01

    Discusses the "latest forecast" for the future of English departments. Addresses departmental and institutional staffing practices, employment opportunities for PhDs, the acceleration of change in the institution, and the general state of the study and teaching of English. (RS)

  12. Uncertainty Assessment: Reservoir Inflow Forecasting with Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts and HEC-HMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sheng-Chi Yang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available During an extreme event, having accurate inflow forecasting with enough lead time helps reservoir operators decrease the impact of floods downstream. Furthermore, being able to efficiently operate reservoirs could help maximize flood protection while saving water for drier times of the year. This study combines ensemble quantitative precipitation forecasts and a hydrological model to provide a 3-day reservoir inflow in the Shihmen Reservoir, Taiwan. A total of six historical typhoons were used for model calibration, validation, and application. An understanding of cascaded uncertainties from the numerical weather model through the hydrological model is necessary for a better use for forecasting. This study thus conducted an assessment of forecast uncertainty on magnitude and timing of peak and cumulative inflows. It found that using the ensemble-mean had less uncertainty than randomly selecting individual member. The inflow forecasts with shorter length of cumulative time had a higher uncertainty. The results showed that using the ensemble precipitation forecasts with the hydrological model would have the advantage of extra lead time and serve as a valuable reference for operating reservoirs.

  13. Ecological forecasts: An emerging imperative

    Science.gov (United States)

    James S. Clark; Steven R. Carpenter; Mary Barber; Scott Collins; Andy Dobson; Jonathan A. Foley; David M. Lodge; Mercedes Pascual; Roger Pielke; William Pizer; Cathy Pringle; Walter V. Reid; Kenneth A. Rose; Osvaldo Sala; William H. Schlesinger; Diana H. Wall; David Wear

    2001-01-01

    Planning and decision-making can be improved by access to reliable forecasts of ecosystem state, ecosystem services, and natural capital. Availability of new data sets, together with progress in computation and statistics, will increase our ability to forecast ecosystem change. An agenda that would lead toward a capacity to produce, evaluate, and communicate forecasts...

  14. Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Lu; Wang, Jianzhou; Lu, Haiyan

    2018-01-01

    Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies. PMID:29673227

  15. Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Lu; Wang, Jianzhou; Ma, Xuejiao; Lu, Haiyan

    2018-04-17

    Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies.

  16. Storm Prediction Center Forecast Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" or "ZIP" City, St Archive NOAA Weather Radio Research Non-op. Products Forecast Tools Svr. Tstm. Events SPC Publications SPC services. Forecast Products Current Weather Watches This is the current graphic showing any severe

  17. Augmenting Oracle Text with the UMLS for enhanced searching of free-text medical reports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Jing; Erdal, Selnur; Dhaval, Rakesh; Kamal, Jyoti

    2007-10-11

    The intrinsic complexity of free-text medical reports imposes great challenges for information retrieval systems. We have developed a prototype search engine for retrieving clinical reports that leverages the powerful indexing and querying capabilities of Oracle Text, and the rich biomedical domain knowledge and semantic structures that are captured in the UMLS Metathesaurus.

  18. Text Maps: Helping Students Navigate Informational Texts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spencer, Brenda H.

    2003-01-01

    Notes that a text map is an instructional approach designed to help students gain fluency in reading content area materials. Discusses how the goal is to teach students about the important features of the material and how the maps can be used to build new understandings. Presents the procedures for preparing and using a text map. (SG)

  19. Interconnectedness und digitale Texte

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Detlev Doherr

    2013-04-01

    PDF. This article focuses on the functionality of the Humboldt Digital Library (HDL, which is available for more than a decade and which provides digitized documents of Alexander von Humboldt in the English translations. Unlike a digital library, the HDL doesn’t provide only digitized documents as PDF or image formats with book scans, but the text itself is made ​​available as such and embedded into an information network. Therefore the system is representing an information system rather than a digital library, which is also reflected by the implemented functions for the search of texts in different versions and translations, comparisons of paragraphs of different documents or presentation of images in their contexts. The development of dynamic hyperlinks, based on the individual paragraphs in the Humboldt works in the form of media assets, enables the use of the Application Programming Interface (API of Google Maps for geographical as well as text content navigation. Beyond the services of a digital library the HDL provides a prototype of a multi-dimensional information system that works with dynamic structures and enables extensive thematic research and comparisons. Resumen Los servicios de información multimedia en Internet se están convirtiendo cada vez más comprensivos, incluso los documentos impresos son digitalizados y republicados, por las bibliotecas, como documentos Web digitales. Estos archivos digitales pueden ser encontrados por máquinas de búsqueda o herramientas administrativas, y proveerlos como archivos en formatos comunes como PDF. Este artículo se enfoca en la funcionalidad de la Biblioteca Digital Humboldt (HDL=Humboldt Digital Library, la cual está disponible por más de una década y provee documentos digitalizados de Alexander von Humboldt traducidos al inglés. A diferencia de una biblioteca digital, la HDL no provee solamente documentos digitales en PDF o en formatos de imagen de libros escaneados, sino el texto en sí mismo se

  20. Electricity demand forecasting using regression, scenarios and pattern analysis

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Khuluse, S

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the study is to forecast national electricity demand patterns for a period of twenty years: total annual consumption and understanding seasonal effects. No constraint on the supply of electricity was assumed...

  1. The Forecasting of Adaptation Potential of Herbaceous Perennials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belykh, O. A.

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This work investigates the problem of the ecobiomorph productive features formation of perennial herbs Ranunculaceae family forecasting on the basis of quantitative connections of species parameters with the leading geomorphological factors of South Siberia environment.

  2. Seasonal Drought Forecasting for Latin America Using the ECMWF S4 Forecast System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hugo Carrão

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Meaningful seasonal prediction of drought conditions is key information for end-users and water managers, particularly in Latin America where crop and livestock production are key for many regional economies. However, there are still not many studies of the feasibility of such a forecasts at continental level in the region. In this study, precipitation predictions from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather (ECMWF seasonal forecast system S4 are combined with observed precipitation data to generate forecasts of the standardized precipitation index (SPI for Latin America, and their skill is evaluated over the hindcast period 1981–2010. The value-added utility in using the ensemble S4 forecast to predict the SPI is identified by comparing the skill of its forecasts with a baseline skill based solely on their climatological characteristics. As expected, skill of the S4-generated SPI forecasts depends on the season, location, and the specific aggregation period considered (the 3- and 6-month SPI were evaluated. Added skill from the S4 for lead times equaling the SPI accumulation periods is primarily present in regions with high intra-annual precipitation variability, and is found mostly for the months at the end of the dry seasons for 3-month SPI, and half-yearly periods for 6-month SPI. The ECMWF forecast system behaves better than the climatology for clustered grid points in the North of South America, the Northeast of Argentina, Uruguay, southern Brazil and Mexico. The skillful regions are similar for the SPI3 and -6, but become reduced in extent for the severest SPI categories. Forecasting different magnitudes of meteorological drought intensity on a seasonal time scale still remains a challenge. However, the ECMWF S4 forecasting system does capture the occurrence of drought events for the aforementioned regions and seasons reasonably well. In the near term, the largest advances in the prediction of meteorological drought for Latin

  3. Load forecasting for supermarket refrigeration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Aalborg Nielsen, Henrik

    This report presents a study of models for forecasting the load for supermarket refrigeration. The data used for building the forecasting models consists of load measurements, local climate measurements and weather forecasts. The load measurements are from a supermarket located in a village...... in Denmark. The load for refrigeration is the sum of all cabinets in the supermarket, both low and medium temperature cabinets, and spans a period of one year. As input to the forecasting models the ambient temperature observed near the supermarket together with weather forecasts are used. Every hour...

  4. High-frequency volatility combine forecast evaluations: An empirical study for DAX

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen Cheong Chin

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to examine the benefits of combining realized volatility, higher power variation volatility and nearest neighbour truncation volatility in the forecasts of financial stock market of DAX. A structural break heavy-tailed heterogeneous autoregressive model under the heterogeneous market hypothesis specification is employed to capture the stylized facts of high-frequency empirical data. Using selected averaging forecast methods, the forecast weights are assigned based on the simple average, simple median, least squares and mean square error. The empirical results indicated that the combination of forecasts in general shown superiority under four evaluation criteria regardless which proxy is set as the actual volatility. As a conclusion, we summarized that the forecast performance is influenced by three factors namely the types of volatility proxy, forecast methods (individual or averaging forecast and lastly the type of actual forecast value used in the evaluation criteria.

  5. A High Precision Artificial Neural Networks Model for Short-Term Energy Load Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ping-Huan Kuo

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the most important research topics in smart grid technology is load forecasting, because accuracy of load forecasting highly influences reliability of the smart grid systems. In the past, load forecasting was obtained by traditional analysis techniques such as time series analysis and linear regression. Since the load forecast focuses on aggregated electricity consumption patterns, researchers have recently integrated deep learning approaches with machine learning techniques. In this study, an accurate deep neural network algorithm for short-term load forecasting (STLF is introduced. The forecasting performance of proposed algorithm is compared with performances of five artificial intelligence algorithms that are commonly used in load forecasting. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE and Cumulative Variation of Root Mean Square Error (CV-RMSE are used as accuracy evaluation indexes. The experiment results show that MAPE and CV-RMSE of proposed algorithm are 9.77% and 11.66%, respectively, displaying very high forecasting accuracy.

  6. Evaluating Forecasts, Narratives and Policy Using a Test of Invariance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer L. Castle

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Economic policy agencies produce forecasts with accompanying narratives, and base policy changes on the resulting anticipated developments in the target variables. Systematic forecast failure, defined as large, persistent deviations of the outturns from the numerical forecasts, can make the associated narrative false, which would in turn question the validity of the entailed policy implementation. We establish when systematic forecast failure entails failure of the accompanying narrative, which we call forediction failure, and when that in turn implies policy invalidity. Most policy regime changes involve location shifts, which can induce forediction failure unless the policy variable is super exogenous in the policy model. We propose a step-indicator saturation test to check in advance for invariance to policy changes. Systematic forecast failure, or a lack of invariance, previously justified by narratives reveals such stories to be economic fiction.

  7. Electricity Load Forecasting Using Support Vector Regression with Memetic Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhongyi Hu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Electricity load forecasting is an important issue that is widely explored and examined in power systems operation literature and commercial transactions in electricity markets literature as well. Among the existing forecasting models, support vector regression (SVR has gained much attention. Considering the performance of SVR highly depends on its parameters; this study proposed a firefly algorithm (FA based memetic algorithm (FA-MA to appropriately determine the parameters of SVR forecasting model. In the proposed FA-MA algorithm, the FA algorithm is applied to explore the solution space, and the pattern search is used to conduct individual learning and thus enhance the exploitation of FA. Experimental results confirm that the proposed FA-MA based SVR model can not only yield more accurate forecasting results than the other four evolutionary algorithms based SVR models and three well-known forecasting models but also outperform the hybrid algorithms in the related existing literature.

  8. Genetic Algorithms vs. Artificial Neural Networks in Economic Forecasting Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolae Morariu

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to describe the implementa-tion of a neural network and a genetic algorithm system in order to forecast certain economic indicators of a free market economy. In a free market economy forecasting process precedes the economic planning (a management function, providing important information for the result of the last process. Forecasting represents a starting point in setting of target for a firm, an organization or even a branch of the economy. Thus, the forecasting method used can influence in a significant mode the evolution of an entity. In the following we will describe the forecasting of an economic indicator using two intelligent systems. The difference between the results obtained by this two systems are described in chapter IV.

  9. A prospective earthquake forecast experiment in the western Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eberhard, David A. J.; Zechar, J. Douglas; Wiemer, Stefan

    2012-09-01

    Since the beginning of 2009, the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) has been conducting an earthquake forecast experiment in the western Pacific. This experiment is an extension of the Kagan-Jackson experiments begun 15 years earlier and is a prototype for future global earthquake predictability experiments. At the beginning of each year, seismicity models make a spatially gridded forecast of the number of Mw≥ 5.8 earthquakes expected in the next year. For the three participating statistical models, we analyse the first two years of this experiment. We use likelihood-based metrics to evaluate the consistency of the forecasts with the observed target earthquakes and we apply measures based on Student's t-test and the Wilcoxon signed-rank test to compare the forecasts. Overall, a simple smoothed seismicity model (TripleS) performs the best, but there are some exceptions that indicate continued experiments are vital to fully understand the stability of these models, the robustness of model selection and, more generally, earthquake predictability in this region. We also estimate uncertainties in our results that are caused by uncertainties in earthquake location and seismic moment. Our uncertainty estimates are relatively small and suggest that the evaluation metrics are relatively robust. Finally, we consider the implications of our results for a global earthquake forecast experiment.

  10. Prototype moving-ring reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, A.C. Jr.; Ashworth, C.P.; Abreu, K.E.

    1981-01-01

    The objective of this work was to design a prototype fusion reactor based on fusion plasmas confined as ''Compact Toruses.' Six major criteria guided the prototype design. The prototype must: (1) produce net electricity decisively (P/sub net/ >70% of P/sub gross/), with P/sub net/ approximately 100 MW(e); (2) have small physical size (low project cost) but commercial plant; (3) have all features required of commerical plants; (4) avoid unreasonable extrapolation of technology; (5) minimize nuclear issues substantially, i.e. accident and waste issues of public concern, and (6) be modular (to permit repetitive fabrication of parts) and be maintainable with low occupational radiological exposures

  11. Text Entry by Gazing and Smiling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Outi Tuisku

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Face Interface is a wearable prototype that combines the use of voluntary gaze direction and facial activations, for pointing and selecting objects on a computer screen, respectively. The aim was to investigate the functionality of the prototype for entering text. First, three on-screen keyboard layout designs were developed and tested (n=10 to find a layout that would be more suitable for text entry with the prototype than traditional QWERTY layout. The task was to enter one word ten times with each of the layouts by pointing letters with gaze and select them by smiling. Subjective ratings showed that a layout with large keys on the edge and small keys near the center of the keyboard was rated as the most enjoyable, clearest, and most functional. Second, using this layout, the aim of the second experiment (n=12 was to compare entering text with Face Interface to entering text with mouse. The results showed that text entry rate for Face Interface was 20 characters per minute (cpm and 27 cpm for the mouse. For Face Interface, keystrokes per character (KSPC value was 1.1 and minimum string distance (MSD error rate was 0.12. These values compare especially well with other similar techniques.

  12. Adaptively smoothed seismicity earthquake forecasts for Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Y. Kagan

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available We present a model for estimation of the probabilities of future earthquakes of magnitudes m ≥ 4.95 in Italy. This model is a modified version of that proposed for California, USA, by Helmstetter et al. [2007] and Werner et al. [2010a], and it approximates seismicity using a spatially heterogeneous, temporally homogeneous Poisson point process. The temporal, spatial and magnitude dimensions are entirely decoupled. Magnitudes are independently and identically distributed according to a tapered Gutenberg-Richter magnitude distribution. We have estimated the spatial distribution of future seismicity by smoothing the locations of past earthquakes listed in two Italian catalogs: a short instrumental catalog, and a longer instrumental and historic catalog. The bandwidth of the adaptive spatial kernel is estimated by optimizing the predictive power of the kernel estimate of the spatial earthquake density in retrospective forecasts. When available and reliable, we used small earthquakes of m ≥ 2.95 to reveal active fault structures and 29 probable future epicenters. By calibrating the model with these two catalogs of different durations to create two forecasts, we intend to quantify the loss (or gain of predictability incurred when only a short, but recent, data record is available. Both forecasts were scaled to five and ten years, and have been submitted to the Italian prospective forecasting experiment of the global Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP. An earlier forecast from the model was submitted by Helmstetter et al. [2007] to the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Model (RELM experiment in California, and with more than half of the five-year experimental period over, the forecast has performed better than the others.

  13. The forecaster's added value

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turco, M.; Milelli, M.

    2009-09-01

    To the authors' knowledge there are relatively few studies that try to answer this topic: "Are humans able to add value to computer-generated forecasts and warnings ?". Moreover, the answers are not always positive. In particular some postprocessing method is competitive or superior to human forecast (see for instance Baars et al., 2005, Charba et al., 2002, Doswell C., 2003, Roebber et al., 1996, Sanders F., 1986). Within the alert system of ARPA Piemonte it is possible to study in an objective manner if the human forecaster is able to add value with respect to computer-generated forecasts. Every day the meteorology group of the Centro Funzionale of Regione Piemonte produces the HQPF (Human QPF) in terms of an areal average for each of the 13 regional warning areas, which have been created according to meteo-hydrological criteria. This allows the decision makers to produce an evaluation of the expected effects by comparing these HQPFs with predefined rainfall thresholds. Another important ingredient in this study is the very dense non-GTS network of rain gauges available that makes possible a high resolution verification. In this context the most useful verification approach is the measure of the QPF and HQPF skills by first converting precipitation expressed as continuous amounts into ‘‘exceedance'' categories (yes-no statements indicating whether precipitation equals or exceeds selected thresholds) and then computing the performances for each threshold. In particular in this work we compare the performances of the latest three years of QPF derived from two meteorological models COSMO-I7 (the Italian version of the COSMO Model, a mesoscale model developed in the framework of the COSMO Consortium) and IFS (the ECMWF global model) with the HQPF. In this analysis it is possible to introduce the hypothesis test developed by Hamill (1999), in which a confidence interval is calculated with the bootstrap method in order to establish the real difference between the

  14. Forecasting carbon dioxide emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xiaobing; Du, Ding

    2015-09-01

    This study extends the literature on forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by applying the reduced-form econometrics approach of Schmalensee et al. (1998) to a more recent sample period, the post-1997 period. Using the post-1997 period is motivated by the observation that the strengthening pace of global climate policy may have been accelerated since 1997. Based on our parameter estimates, we project 25% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 according to an economic and population growth scenario that is more consistent with recent global trends. Our forecasts are conservative due to that we do not have sufficient data to fully take into account recent developments in the global economy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Forecasting potential crises

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neufeld, W.P.

    1984-01-01

    Recently, the Trend Analysis Program (TAP) of the American Council of Life Insurance commissioned the Futures Group of Glastonbury, Connecticut, to examine the potential for large-scale catastrophic events in the near future. TAP was specifically concerned with five potential crises: the warming of the earth's atmosphere, the water shortage, the collapse of the physical infrastructure, the global financial crisis, and the threat of nuclear war. We are often unprepared to take action; in these cases, we lose an advantage we might have otherwise had. This is the whole idea behind forecasting: to foresee possibilities and to project how we can respond. If we are able to create forecasts against which we can test policy options and choices, we may have the luxury of adopting policies ahead of events. Rather than simply fighting fires, we have the option of creating a future more to our choosing. Short descriptions of these five potential crises and, in some cases, possible solutions are presented

  16. Forecasting oilfield economic performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bradley, M.E.; Wood, A.R.O.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a general method for forecasting oilfield economic performance that integrates cost data with operational, reservoir, and financial information. Practices are developed for determining economic limits for an oil field and its components. The economic limits of marginal wells and the role of underground competition receive special attention. Also examined is the influence of oil prices on operating costs. Examples illustrate application of these concepts. Categorization of costs for historical tracking and projections is recommended

  17. Frost Forecasting for Fruitgrowers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martsolf, J. D.; Chen, E.

    1983-01-01

    Progress in forecasting from satellite data reviewed. University study found data from satellites displayed in color and used to predict frost are valuable aid to agriculture. Study evaluated scheme to use Earth-temperature data from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite in computer model that determines when and where freezing temperatures endanger developing fruit crops, such as apples, peaches and cherries in spring and citrus crops in winter.

  18. Uranium price forecasting methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuller, D.M.

    1994-01-01

    This article reviews a number of forecasting methods that have been applied to uranium prices and compares their relative strengths and weaknesses. The methods reviewed are: (1) judgemental methods, (2) technical analysis, (3) time-series methods, (4) fundamental analysis, and (5) econometric methods. Historically, none of these methods has performed very well, but a well-thought-out model is still useful as a basis from which to adjust to new circumstances and try again

  19. Learning Axure RP interactive prototypes

    CERN Document Server

    Krahenbuhl, John Henry

    2015-01-01

    If you are a user experience professional, designer, information architect, or business analyst who wants to gain interactive prototyping skills with Axure, then this book is ideal for you. Some familiarity with Axure is preferred but not essential.

  20. Architectural Prototyping in Industrial Practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Henrik Bærbak; Hansen, Klaus Marius

    2008-01-01

    Architectural prototyping is the process of using executable code to investigate stakeholders’ software architecture concerns with respect to a system under development. Previous work has established this as a useful and cost-effective way of exploration and learning of the design space of a system......, in addressing issues regarding quality attributes, in addressing architectural risks, and in addressing the problem of knowledge transfer and conformance. Little work has been reported so far on the actual industrial use of architectural prototyping. In this paper, we report from an ethnographical study...... and focus group involving architects from four companies in which we have focused on architectural prototypes. Our findings conclude that architectural prototypes play an important role in resolving problems experimentally, but less so in exploring alternative solutions. Furthermore, architectural...

  1. Experimentation with PEC channel prototype

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caponetti, R.; Iacovelli, M.

    1984-01-01

    Experimentation on prototypes of PEC components is presently being carried out at Casaccia CRE. This report shows the results of the first cycle of experimentation of the central channel, concerning the aspects of sodium removal after experimentation

  2. ECCE Toolkit: Prototyping Sensor-Based Interaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Bellucci

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Building and exploring physical user interfaces requires high technical skills and hours of specialized work. The behavior of multiple devices with heterogeneous input/output channels and connectivity has to be programmed in a context where not only the software interface matters, but also the hardware components are critical (e.g., sensors and actuators. Prototyping physical interaction is hindered by the challenges of: (1 programming interactions among physical sensors/actuators and digital interfaces; (2 implementing functionality for different platforms in different programming languages; and (3 building custom electronic-incorporated objects. We present ECCE (Entities, Components, Couplings and Ecosystems, a toolkit for non-programmers that copes with these issues by abstracting from low-level implementations, thus lowering the complexity of prototyping small-scale, sensor-based physical interfaces to support the design process. A user evaluation provides insights and use cases of the kind of applications that can be developed with the toolkit.

  3. Rapid prototyping: An innovative technique in dentistry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shakeba Quadri

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Emergence of advanced digital technology has opened up new perspectives for design and production in the field of dentistry. Rapid prototyping (RP is a technique to quickly and automatically construct a three-dimensional (3D model of a part or product using 3D printers or stereolithography machines. RP has various dental applications, such as fabrication of implant surgical guides, zirconia prosthesis and molds for metal castings, maxillofacial prosthesis and frameworks for fixed and removable partial dentures, wax patterns for the dental prosthesis and complete denture. Rapid prototyping presents fascinating opportunities, but the process is difficult as it demands a high level of artistic skill, which means that the dental technicians should be able to work with the models obtained after impression to form a mirror image and achieve good esthetics. This review aims to focus on various RP methods and its application in dentistry.

  4. Mechatronic Prototype of Parabolic Solar Tracker

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Morón

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In the last 30 years numerous attempts have been made to improve the efficiency of the parabolic collectors in the electric power production, although most of the studies have focused on the industrial production of thermoelectric power. This research focuses on the application of this concentrating solar thermal power in the unexplored field of building construction. To that end, a mechatronic prototype of a hybrid paraboloidal and cylindrical-parabolic tracker based on the Arduido technology has been designed. The prototype is able to measure meteorological data autonomously in order to quantify the energy potential of any location. In this way, it is possible to reliably model real commercial equipment behavior before its deployment in buildings and single family houses.

  5. PyForecastTools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2017-09-22

    The PyForecastTools package provides Python routines for calculating metrics for model validation, forecast verification and model comparison. For continuous predictands the package provides functions for calculating bias (mean error, mean percentage error, median log accuracy, symmetric signed bias), and for calculating accuracy (mean squared error, mean absolute error, mean absolute scaled error, normalized RMSE, median symmetric accuracy). Convenience routines to calculate the component parts (e.g. forecast error, scaled error) of each metric are also provided. To compare models the package provides: generic skill score; percent better. Robust measures of scale including median absolute deviation, robust standard deviation, robust coefficient of variation and the Sn estimator are all provided by the package. Finally, the package implements Python classes for NxN contingency tables. In the case of a multi-class prediction, accuracy and skill metrics such as proportion correct and the Heidke and Peirce skill scores are provided as object methods. The special case of a 2x2 contingency table inherits from the NxN class and provides many additional metrics for binary classification: probability of detection, probability of false detection, false alarm ration, threat score, equitable threat score, bias. Confidence intervals for many of these quantities can be calculated using either the Wald method or Agresti-Coull intervals.

  6. Seismic forecast using geostatistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grecu, Valeriu; Mateiciuc, Doru

    2007-01-01

    The main idea of this research direction consists in the special way of constructing a new type of mathematical function as being a correlation between a computed statistical quantity and another physical quantity. This type of function called 'position function' was taken over by the authors of this study in the field of seismology with the hope of solving - at least partially - the difficult problem of seismic forecast. The geostatistic method of analysis focuses on the process of energy accumulation in a given seismic area, completing this analysis by a so-called loading function. This function - in fact a temporal function - describes the process of energy accumulation during a seismic cycle from a given seismic area. It was possible to discover a law of evolution of the seismic cycles that was materialized in a so-called characteristic function. This special function will help us to forecast the magnitude and the occurrence moment of the largest earthquake in the analysed area. Since 2000, the authors have been evolving to a new stage of testing: real - time analysis, in order to verify the quality of the method. There were five large earthquakes forecasts. (authors)

  7. Statistical methods for forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Abraham, Bovas

    2009-01-01

    The Wiley-Interscience Paperback Series consists of selected books that have been made more accessible to consumers in an effort to increase global appeal and general circulation. With these new unabridged softcover volumes, Wiley hopes to extend the lives of these works by making them available to future generations of statisticians, mathematicians, and scientists."This book, it must be said, lives up to the words on its advertising cover: ''Bridging the gap between introductory, descriptive approaches and highly advanced theoretical treatises, it provides a practical, intermediate level discussion of a variety of forecasting tools, and explains how they relate to one another, both in theory and practice.'' It does just that!"-Journal of the Royal Statistical Society"A well-written work that deals with statistical methods and models that can be used to produce short-term forecasts, this book has wide-ranging applications. It could be used in the context of a study of regression, forecasting, and time series ...

  8. Tangiplay: prototyping tangible electronic games

    OpenAIRE

    Boileau, Jason

    2010-01-01

    Tangible electronic games currently exist in research laboratories around the world but have yet to transition to the commercial sector. The development process of a tangible electronic game is one of the factors preventing progression, as it requires much time and money. Prototyping tools for tangible hardware and software development are becoming more available but are targeted to programmers and technically trained developers. Paper prototyping board and video games is a proven and rapid m...

  9. Fast-prototyping of VLSI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saucier, G.; Read, E.

    1987-01-01

    Fast-prototyping will be a reality in the very near future if both straightforward design methods and fast manufacturing facilities are available. This book focuses, first, on the motivation for fast-prototyping. Economic aspects and market considerations are analysed by European and Japanese companies. In the second chapter, new design methods are identified, mainly for full custom circuits. Of course, silicon compilers play a key role and the introduction of artificial intelligence techniques sheds a new light on the subject. At present, fast-prototyping on gate arrays or on standard cells is the most conventional technique and the third chapter updates the state-of-the art in this area. The fourth chapter concentrates specifically on the e-beam direct-writing for submicron IC technologies. In the fifth chapter, a strategic point in fast-prototyping, namely the test problem is addressed. The design for testability and the interface to the test equipment are mandatory to fulfill the test requirement for fast-prototyping. Finally, the last chapter deals with the subject of education when many people complain about the lack of use of fast-prototyping in higher education for VLSI

  10. Analysing UK real estate market forecast disagreement

    OpenAIRE

    McAllister, Patrick; Newell, G.; Matysiak, George

    2005-01-01

    Given the significance of forecasting in real estate investment decisions, this paper investigates forecast uncertainty and disagreement in real estate market forecasts. Using the Investment Property Forum (IPF) quarterly survey amongst UK independent real estate forecasters, these real estate forecasts are compared with actual real estate performance to assess a number of real estate forecasting issues in the UK over 1999-2004, including real estate forecast error, bias and consensus. The re...

  11. Effective Feature Preprocessing for Time Series Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Junhua; Dong, Zhaoyang; Xu, Zhao

    2006-01-01

    Time series forecasting is an important area in data mining research. Feature preprocessing techniques have significant influence on forecasting accuracy, therefore are essential in a forecasting model. Although several feature preprocessing techniques have been applied in time series forecasting...... performance in time series forecasting. It is demonstrated in our experiment that, effective feature preprocessing can significantly enhance forecasting accuracy. This research can be a useful guidance for researchers on effectively selecting feature preprocessing techniques and integrating them with time...... series forecasting models....

  12. EU pharmaceutical expenditure forecast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urbinati, Duccio; Rémuzat, Cécile; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, forecasting has become critically important. Some countries have, for instance, developed pharmaceutical horizon scanning units. The objective of this project was to build a model to assess the net effect of the entrance of new patented medicinal products versus medicinal products going off-patent, with a defined forecast horizon, on selected European Union (EU) Member States' pharmaceutical budgets. This model took into account population ageing, as well as current and future country-specific pricing, reimbursement, and market access policies (the project was performed for the European Commission; see http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). In order to have a representative heterogeneity of EU Member States, the following countries were selected for the analysis: France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. A forecasting period of 5 years (2012-2016) was chosen to assess the net pharmaceutical budget impact. A model for generics and biosimilars was developed for each country. The model estimated a separate and combined effect of the direct and indirect impacts of the patent cliff. A second model, estimating the sales development and the risk of development failure, was developed for new drugs. New drugs were reviewed individually to assess their clinical potential and translate it into commercial potential. The forecast was carried out according to three perspectives (healthcare public payer, society, and manufacturer), and several types of distribution chains (retail, hospital, and combined retail and hospital). Probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses were carried out. According to the model, all countries experienced drug budget reductions except Poland (+€41 million). Savings were expected to be the highest in the United Kingdom (-€9,367 million), France (-€5,589 million), and, far behind them

  13. System of the Wind Wave Operational Forecast by the Black Sea Marine Forecast Center

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu.B. Ratner

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available System of the wind wave operational forecast in the Black Sea based on the SWAN (Simulating Waves Nearshore numerical spectral model is represented. In the course of the system development the SWAN model was adapted to take into account the features of its operation at the Black Sea Marine Forecast Center. The model input-output is agreed with the applied nomenclature and the data representation formats. The user interface for rapid access to simulation results was developed. The model adapted to wave forecast in the Black Sea in a quasi-operational mode, is validated for 2012–2015. Validation of the calculation results was carried out for all five forecasting terms based on the analysis of two-dimensional graphs of the wave height distribution derived from the data of prognostic calculations and remote measurements obtained with the altimeter installed on the Jason-2 satellite. Calculation of the statistical characteristics of the deviations between the wave height prognostic values and the data of their measurements from the Jason-2 satellite, as well as a regression analysis of the relationship between the forecasted and measured wave heights was additionally carried out. A comparison of the results obtained with the similar results reported in the works of other authors published in 2009–2016 showed their satisfactory compliance with each other. The forecasts carried out by the authors for the Black Sea as well as those obtained for the other World Ocean regions show that the current level of numerical methods for sea wave forecasting is in full compliance with the requirements of specialists engaged in studying and modeling the state of the ocean and the atmosphere, as well as the experts using these results for solving applied problems.

  14. Support Vector Regression Model Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition and Auto Regression for Electric Load Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong-Juan Li

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Electric load forecasting is an important issue for a power utility, associated with the management of daily operations such as energy transfer scheduling, unit commitment, and load dispatch. Inspired by strong non-linear learning capability of support vector regression (SVR, this paper presents a SVR model hybridized with the empirical mode decomposition (EMD method and auto regression (AR for electric load forecasting. The electric load data of the New South Wales (Australia market are employed for comparing the forecasting performances of different forecasting models. The results confirm the validity of the idea that the proposed model can simultaneously provide forecasting with good accuracy and interpretability.

  15. Application of Hybrid Quantum Tabu Search with Support Vector Regression (SVR for Load Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng-Wen Lee

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Hybridizing chaotic evolutionary algorithms with support vector regression (SVR to improve forecasting accuracy is a hot topic in electricity load forecasting. Trapping at local optima and premature convergence are critical shortcomings of the tabu search (TS algorithm. This paper investigates potential improvements of the TS algorithm by applying quantum computing mechanics to enhance the search information sharing mechanism (tabu memory to improve the forecasting accuracy. This article presents an SVR-based load forecasting model that integrates quantum behaviors and the TS algorithm with the support vector regression model (namely SVRQTS to obtain a more satisfactory forecasting accuracy. Numerical examples demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms the alternatives.

  16. Energy Consumption Forecasting for University Sector Buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khuram Pervez Amber

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Reliable energy forecasting helps managers to prepare future budgets for their buildings. Therefore, a simple, easier, less time consuming and reliable forecasting model which could be used for different types of buildings is desired. In this paper, we have presented a forecasting model based on five years of real data sets for one dependent variable (the daily electricity consumption and six explanatory variables (ambient temperature, solar radiation, relative humidity, wind speed, weekday index and building type. A single mathematical equation for forecasting daily electricity usage of university buildings has been developed using the Multiple Regression (MR technique. Data of two such buildings, located at the Southwark Campus of London South Bank University in London, have been used for this study. The predicted test results of MR model are examined and judged against real electricity consumption data of both buildings for year 2011. The results demonstrate that out of six explanatory variables, three variables; surrounding temperature, weekday index and building type have significant influence on buildings energy consumption. The results of this model are associated with a Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE of 12% for the administrative building and 13% for the academic building. Finally, some limitations of this study have also been discussed.

  17. Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. F. van Ogtrop

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow in semi-arid Australia poses a number of major challenges. One of the challenges relates to modelling zero, skewed, non-stationary, and non-linear data. To address this, a statistical model to forecast streamflow up to 12 months ahead is applied to five semi-arid catchments in South Western Queensland. The model uses logistic regression through Generalised Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS to determine the probability of flow occurring in any of the systems. We then use the same regression framework in combination with a right-skewed distribution, the Box-Cox t distribution, to model the intensity (depth of the non-zero streamflows. Time, seasonality and climate indices, describing the Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures, are tested as covariates in the GAMLSS model to make probabilistic 6 and 12-month forecasts of the occurrence and intensity of streamflow. The output reveals that in the study region the occurrence and variability of flow is driven by sea surface temperatures and therefore forecasts can be made with some skill.

  18. Linear Algorithms for Radioelectric Spectrum Forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis F. Pedraza

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the development and evaluation of two linear algorithms for forecasting reception power for different channels at an assigned spectrum band of global systems for mobile communications (GSM, in order to analyze the spatial opportunity for reuse of frequencies by secondary users (SUs in a cognitive radio (CR network. The algorithms employed correspond to seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH, which allow for a forecast of channel occupancy status. Results are evaluated using the following criteria: availability and occupancy time for channels, different types of mean absolute error, and observation time. The contributions of this work include a more integral forecast as the algorithm not only forecasts reception power but also the occupancy and availability time of a channel to determine its precision percentage during the use by primary users (PUs and SUs within a CR system. Algorithm analyses demonstrate a better performance for SARIMA over GARCH algorithm in most of the evaluated variables.

  19. Forecasting Analysis of Shanghai Stock Index Based on ARIMA Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Chenggang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Prediction and analysis of the Shanghai Composite Index is conducive for investors to investing in the stock market, and providing investors with reference. This paper selects Shanghai Composite Index monthly closing price from Jan, 2005 to Oct, 2016 to construct ARIMA model. This paper carries on the forecast of the last three monthly closing price of Shanghai Stock Index that have occurred, and compared it with the actual value, which tests the accuracy and feasibility of the model in the short term Shanghai Stock Index forecast. At last, this paper uses the ARIMA model to forecast the Shanghai Composite Index closing price of the last two months in 2016.

  20. Evaluation of Probabilistic Disease Forecasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Gareth; Burnett, Fiona J

    2017-10-01

    The statistical evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts often involves calculation of metrics defined conditionally on disease status, such as sensitivity and specificity. However, for the purpose of disease management decision making, metrics defined conditionally on the result of the forecast-predictive values-are also important, although less frequently reported. In this context, the application of scoring rules in the evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts is discussed. An index of separation with application in the evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts, described in the clinical literature, is also considered and its relation to scoring rules illustrated. Scoring rules provide a principled basis for the evaluation of probabilistic forecasts used in plant disease management. In particular, the decomposition of scoring rules into interpretable components is an advantageous feature of their application in the evaluation of disease forecasts.

  1. Complex relationship between seasonal streamflow forecast skill and value in reservoir operations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. W. D. Turner

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Considerable research effort has recently been directed at improving and operationalising ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasts. Whilst this creates new opportunities for improving the performance of water resources systems, there may also be associated risks. Here, we explore these potential risks by examining the sensitivity of forecast value (improvement in system performance brought about by adopting forecasts to changes in the forecast skill for a range of hypothetical reservoir designs with contrasting operating objectives. Forecast-informed operations are simulated using rolling horizon, adaptive control and then benchmarked against optimised control rules to assess performance improvements. Results show that there exists a strong relationship between forecast skill and value for systems operated to maintain a target water level. But this relationship breaks down when the reservoir is operated to satisfy a target demand for water; good forecast accuracy does not necessarily translate into performance improvement. We show that the primary cause of this behaviour is the buffering role played by storage in water supply reservoirs, which renders the forecast superfluous for long periods of the operation. System performance depends primarily on forecast accuracy when critical decisions are made – namely during severe drought. As it is not possible to know in advance if a forecast will perform well at such moments, we advocate measuring the consistency of forecast performance, through bootstrap resampling, to indicate potential usefulness in storage operations. Our results highlight the need for sensitivity assessment in value-of-forecast studies involving reservoirs with supply objectives.

  2. Short-Term Wind Power Interval Forecasting Based on an EEMD-RT-RVM Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haixiang Zang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate short-term wind power forecasting is important for improving the security and economic success of power grids. Existing wind power forecasting methods are mostly types of deterministic point forecasting. Deterministic point forecasting is vulnerable to forecasting errors and cannot effectively deal with the random nature of wind power. In order to solve the above problems, we propose a short-term wind power interval forecasting model based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD, runs test (RT, and relevance vector machine (RVM. First, in order to reduce the complexity of data, the original wind power sequence is decomposed into a plurality of intrinsic mode function (IMF components and residual (RES component by using EEMD. Next, we use the RT method to reconstruct the components and obtain three new components characterized by the fine-to-coarse order. Finally, we obtain the overall forecasting results (with preestablished confidence levels by superimposing the forecasting results of each new component. Our results show that, compared with existing methods, our proposed short-term interval forecasting method has less forecasting errors, narrower interval widths, and larger interval coverage percentages. Ultimately, our forecasting model is more suitable for engineering applications and other forecasting methods for new energy.

  3. Hybrid Forecasting Approach Based on GRNN Neural Network and SVR Machine for Electricity Demand Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weide Li

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate electric power demand forecasting plays a key role in electricity markets and power systems. The electric power demand is usually a non-linear problem due to various unknown reasons, which make it difficult to get accurate prediction by traditional methods. The purpose of this paper is to propose a novel hybrid forecasting method for managing and scheduling the electricity power. EEMD-SCGRNN-PSVR, the proposed new method, combines ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD, seasonal adjustment (S, cross validation (C, general regression neural network (GRNN and support vector regression machine optimized by the particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSVR. The main idea of EEMD-SCGRNN-PSVR is respectively to forecast waveform and trend component that hidden in demand series to substitute directly forecasting original electric demand. EEMD-SCGRNN-PSVR is used to predict the one week ahead half-hour’s electricity demand in two data sets (New South Wales (NSW and Victorian State (VIC in Australia. Experimental results show that the new hybrid model outperforms the other three models in terms of forecasting accuracy and model robustness.

  4. Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part I: Forecast uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

    2009-04-01

    In Bavaria, operational flood forecasting has been established since the disastrous flood of 1999. Nowadays, forecasts based on rainfall information from about 700 raingauges and 600 rivergauges are calculated and issued for nearly 100 rivergauges. With the added experience of the 2002 and 2005 floods, awareness grew that the standard deterministic forecast, neglecting the uncertainty associated with each forecast is misleading, creating a false feeling of unambiguousness. As a consequence, a system to identify, quantify and communicate the sources and magnitude of forecast uncertainty has been developed, which will be presented in part I of this study. In this system, the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts plays a key role which will be presented in part II. Developing the system, several constraints stemming from the range of hydrological regimes and operational requirements had to be met: Firstly, operational time constraints obviate the variation of all components of the modeling chain as would be done in a full Monte Carlo simulation. Therefore, an approach was chosen where only the most relevant sources of uncertainty were dynamically considered while the others were jointly accounted for by static error distributions from offline analysis. Secondly, the dominant sources of uncertainty vary over the wide range of forecasted catchments: In alpine headwater catchments, typically of a few hundred square kilometers in size, rainfall forecast uncertainty is the key factor for forecast uncertainty, with a magnitude dynamically changing with the prevailing predictability of the atmosphere. In lowland catchments encompassing several thousands of square kilometers, forecast uncertainty in the desired range (usually up to two days) is mainly dependent on upstream gauge observation quality, routing and unpredictable human impact such as reservoir operation. The determination of forecast uncertainty comprised the following steps: a) From comparison of gauge

  5. A Fuzzy Collaborative Forecasting Approach for Forecasting the Productivity of a Factory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi-Chi Wang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Productivity is always considered as one of the most basic and important factors to the competitiveness of a factory. For this reason, all factories have sought to enhance productivity. To achieve this goal, we first need to estimate the productivity. However, there is considerable degree of uncertainty in productivity. For this reason, a fuzzy collaborative forecasting approach is proposed in this study to forecast the productivity of a factory. First, a learning model is established to estimate the future productivity. Subsequently, the learning model is converted into three equivalent nonlinear programming problems to be solved from various viewpoints. The fuzzy productivity forecasts by different experts may not be equal and should therefore be aggregated. To this end, the fuzzy intersection and back propagation network approach is applied. The practical example of a dynamic random access memory (DRAM factory is used to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

  6. Text-Fabric

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roorda, Dirk

    2016-01-01

    Text-Fabric is a Python3 package for Text plus Annotations. It provides a data model, a text file format, and a binary format for (ancient) text plus (linguistic) annotations. The emphasis of this all is on: data processing; sharing data; and contributing modules. A defining characteristic is that

  7. Contextual Text Mining

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mei, Qiaozhu

    2009-01-01

    With the dramatic growth of text information, there is an increasing need for powerful text mining systems that can automatically discover useful knowledge from text. Text is generally associated with all kinds of contextual information. Those contexts can be explicit, such as the time and the location where a blog article is written, and the…

  8. XML and Free Text.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riggs, Ken Roger

    2002-01-01

    Discusses problems with marking free text, text that is either natural language or semigrammatical but unstructured, that prevent well-formed XML from marking text for readily available meaning. Proposes a solution to mark meaning in free text that is consistent with the intended simplicity of XML versus SGML. (Author/LRW)

  9. Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2012

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hong, Tao; Pinson, Pierre; Fan, Shu

    2014-01-01

    The Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom2012) attracted hundreds of participants worldwide, who contributed many novel ideas to the energy forecasting field. This paper introduces both tracks of GEFCom2012, hierarchical load forecasting and wind power forecasting, with details...... on the aspects of the problem, the data, and a summary of the methods used by selected top entries. We also discuss the lessons learned from this competition from the organizers’ perspective. The complete data set, including the solution data, is published along with this paper, in an effort to establish...

  10. Forecasting in Complex Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Graves, W. R.; Turcotte, D. L.; Donnellan, A.

    2014-12-01

    Complex nonlinear systems are typically characterized by many degrees of freedom, as well as interactions between the elements. Interesting examples can be found in the areas of earthquakes and finance. In these two systems, fat tails play an important role in the statistical dynamics. For earthquake systems, the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency is applicable, whereas for daily returns for the securities in the financial markets are known to be characterized by leptokurtotic statistics in which the tails are power law. Very large fluctuations are present in both systems. In earthquake systems, one has the example of great earthquakes such as the M9.1, March 11, 2011 Tohoku event. In financial systems, one has the example of the market crash of October 19, 1987. Both were largely unexpected events that severely impacted the earth and financial systems systemically. Other examples include the M9.3 Andaman earthquake of December 26, 2004, and the Great Recession which began with the fall of Lehman Brothers investment bank on September 12, 2013. Forecasting the occurrence of these damaging events has great societal importance. In recent years, national funding agencies in a variety of countries have emphasized the importance of societal relevance in research, and in particular, the goal of improved forecasting technology. Previous work has shown that both earthquakes and financial crashes can be described by a common Landau-Ginzburg-type free energy model. These metastable systems are characterized by fat tail statistics near the classical spinodal. Correlations in these systems can grow and recede, but do not imply causation, a common source of misunderstanding. In both systems, a common set of techniques can be used to compute the probabilities of future earthquakes or crashes. In this talk, we describe the basic phenomenology of these systems and emphasize their similarities and differences. We also consider the problem of forecast validation and verification

  11. Forecasting the price of gold: An error correction approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kausik Gangopadhyay

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Gold prices in the Indian market may be influenced by a multitude of factors such as the value of gold in investment decisions, as an inflation hedge, and in consumption motives. We develop a model to explain and forecast gold prices in India, using a vector error correction model. We identify investment decision and inflation hedge as prime movers of the data. We also present out-of-sample forecasts of our model and the related properties.

  12. Geomagnetic Dst index forecast based on IMF data only

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Pallocchia

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available In the past years several operational Dst forecasting algorithms, based on both IMF and solar wind plasma parameters, have been developed and used. We describe an Artificial Neural Network (ANN algorithm which calculates the Dst index on the basis of IMF data only and discuss its performance for several individual storms. Moreover, we briefly comment on the physical grounds which allow the Dst forecasting based on IMF only.

  13. Demand Forecasting in the Fashion Industry: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Elena Nenni

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Forecasting demand is a crucial issue for driving efficient operations management plans. This is especially the case in the fashion industry, where demand uncertainty, lack of historical data and seasonal trends usually coexist. Many approaches to this issue have been proposed in the literature over the past few decades. In this paper, forecasting methods are compared with the aim of linking approaches to the market features.

  14. Prototypes in engineering design: Definitions and strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Lasse Skovgaard; Özkil, Ali Gürcan; Mortensen, Niels Henrik

    2016-01-01

    By reviewing literature, we investigate types, purposes and definitions of prototypes. There is no overarching definition of a prototype, but we identify five categories of prototypes in litterature. We further synthesize and reference previous work to create an overview of aspects in prototyping...

  15. Prototyping in theory and in practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yu, Fei; Brem, Alexander; Pasinell, Michele

    2018-01-01

    and functions of a prototype and needed to meet specific goals in order to push the process forward. Designers, on the other hand, used prototypes to investigate the design space for new possibilities, and were more open to a variety of prototyping materials and tools, especially for low-fidelity prototypes...

  16. Rapid Prototyping of Formally Modelled Distributed Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Buchs, Didier; Buffo, Mathieu; Titsworth, Frances M.

    1999-01-01

    This paper presents various kinds of prototypes, used in the prototyping of formally modelled distributed systems. It presents the notions of prototyping techniques and prototype evolution, and shows how to relate them to the software life-cycle. It is illustrated through the use of the formal modelling language for distributed systems CO-OPN/2.

  17. Towards an Operational Framework for Architectural Prototyping

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Henrik Bærbak

    2005-01-01

    We use a case study in architectural prototyping as input for presenting a first, tentative, framework describing key concepts and their relationships in architectural prototyping processes.......We use a case study in architectural prototyping as input for presenting a first, tentative, framework describing key concepts and their relationships in architectural prototyping processes....

  18. Neural basis of scientific innovation induced by heuristic prototype.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junlong Luo

    Full Text Available A number of major inventions in history have been based on bionic imitation. Heuristics, by applying biological systems to the creation of artificial devices and machines, might be one of the most critical processes in scientific innovation. In particular, prototype heuristics propositions that innovation may engage automatic activation of a prototype such as a biological system to form novel associations between a prototype's function and problem-solving. We speculated that the cortical dissociation between the automatic activation and forming novel associations in innovation is critical point to heuristic creativity. In the present study, novel and old scientific innovations (NSI and OSI were selected as experimental materials in using learning-testing paradigm to explore the neural basis of scientific innovation induced by heuristic prototype. College students were required to resolve NSI problems (to which they did not know the answers and OSI problems (to which they knew the answers. From two fMRI experiments, our results showed that the subjects could resolve NSI when provided with heuristic prototypes. In Experiment 1, it was found that the lingual gyrus (LG; BA18 might be related to prototype heuristics in college students resolving NSI after learning a relative prototype. In Experiment 2, the LG (BA18 and precuneus (BA31 were significantly activated for NSI compared to OSI when college students learned all prototypes one day before the test. In addition, the mean beta-values of these brain regions of NSI were all correlated with the behavior accuracy of NSI. As our hypothesis indicated, the findings suggested that the LG might be involved in forming novel associations using heuristic information, while the precuneus might be involved in the automatic activation of heuristic prototype during scientific innovation.

  19. Engineering prototypes for theta-pinch devices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansborough, L.D.; Hammer, C.F.; Hanks, K.W.; McDonald, T.E.; Nunnally, W.C.

    1975-01-01

    Past, present, and future engineering prototypes for theta-pinch plasma-physics devices at Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory are discussed. Engineering prototypes are designed to test and evaluate all components under system conditions expected on actual plasma-physics experimental devices. The importance of engineering prototype development increases as the size and complexity of the plasma-physics device increases. Past experiences with the Scyllac prototype and the Staged Theta-Pinch prototype are discussed and evaluated. The design of the proposed Staged Scyllac prototype and the Large Staged Scyllac implosion prototype assembly are discussed

  20. E-text

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Finnemann, Niels Ole

    2018-01-01

    text can be defined by taking as point of departure the digital format in which everything is represented in the binary alphabet. While the notion of text, in most cases, lends itself to be independent of medium and embodiment, it is also often tacitly assumed that it is, in fact, modeled around...... the print medium, rather than written text or speech. In late 20th century, the notion of text was subject to increasing criticism as in the question raised within literary text theory: is there a text in this class? At the same time, the notion was expanded by including extra linguistic sign modalities...

  1. Prototypical Rod Consolidation Demonstration Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-05-01

    The objective of Phase III of the Prototypical Rod Consolidation Demonstration Project (PRCDP) was to procure, fabricate, assemble, and test the Prototypical Rod Consolidation System as described in the NUS Phase II Final Design Report. This effort required providing the materials, components, and fabricated parts which makes up all of the system equipment. In addition, it included the assembly, installation, and setup of this equipment at the Cold Test Facility. During the Phase III effort the system was tested on a component, subsystem, and system level. Volume IV provides the Operating and Maintenance Manual for the Prototypical Rod Consolidation System that was installed at the Cold Test Facility. This document, Book 1 of Volume IV, discusses: Process overview functional descriptions; Control system descriptions; Support system descriptions; Maintenance system descriptions; and Process equipment descriptions

  2. Science with the ASTRI prototype

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sartore, Nicola

    2013-01-01

    ASTRI (Astrofisica a Specchi con Tecnologia Replicante Italiana) is a “Flagship Project” financed by the Italian Ministry of Instruction, University and Research and led by the Italian National Institute of Astrophysics. It represents the Italian proposal for the development of the Small Size Telescope system of the Cherenkov Telescope Array, the next generation observatory for Very High Energy gamma-rays (20 GeV - 100 TeV). The ASTRI end-to-end prototype will be installed at Serra La Nave (Catania, Italy) and it will see the first light at the beginning of 2014. We describe the expected performance of the prototype on few selected test cases of the northern emisphere. The aim of the prototype is to probe the technological solutions and the nominal performance of the various telescope's subsystems

  3. Flight Telerobotic Servicer prototype simulator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schein, Rob; Krauze, Linda; Hartley, Craig; Dickenson, Alan; Lavecchia, Tom; Working, Bob

    A prototype simulator for the Flight Telerobotic Servicer (FTS) system is described for use in the design development of the FTS, emphasizing the hand controller and user interface. The simulator utilizes a graphics workstation based on rapid prototyping tools for systems analyses of the use of the user interface and the hand controller. Kinematic modeling, manipulator-control algorithms, and communications programs are contained in the software for the simulator. The hardwired FTS panels and operator interface for use on the STS Orbiter are represented graphically, and the simulated controls function as the final FTS system configuration does. The robotic arm moves based on the user hand-controller interface, and the joint angles and other data are given on the prototype of the user interface. This graphics simulation tool provides the means for familiarizing crewmembers with the FTS system operation, displays, and controls.

  4. Prototypical Rod Consolidation Demonstration Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-05-01

    The objective of Phase III of the Prototypical Rod Consolidation Demonstration Project (PRCDP) was to procure, fabricate, assemble, and test the Prototypical Rod Consolidation System as described in the NUS Phase II Final Design Report. This effort required providing the materials, components, and fabricated parts which makes up all of the system equipment. In addition, it included the assembly, installation, and setup of this equipment at the Cold Test Facility. During the Phase III effort the system was tested on a component, subsystem, and system level. Volume IV provides the Operating and Maintenance Manual for the Prototypical Rod Consolidation System that was installed at the Cold Test Facility. This document, Book 4 of Volume IV, discusses: Off-normal operating and recovery procedures; Emergency response procedures; Troubleshooting procedures; and Preventive maintenance procedures

  5. Solid modeling and applications rapid prototyping, CAD and CAE theory

    CERN Document Server

    Um, Dugan

    2016-01-01

    The lessons in this fundamental text equip students with the theory of Computer Assisted Design (CAD), Computer Assisted Engineering (CAE), the essentials of Rapid Prototyping, as well as practical skills needed to apply this understanding in real world design and manufacturing settings. The book includes three main areas: CAD, CAE, and Rapid Prototyping, each enriched with numerous examples and exercises. In the CAD section, Professor Um outlines the basic concept of geometric modeling, Hermite and Bezier Spline curves theory, and 3-dimensional surface theories as well as rendering theory. The CAE section explores mesh generation theory, matrix notion for FEM, the stiffness method, and truss Equations. And in Rapid Prototyping, the author illustrates stereo lithographic theory and introduces popular modern RP technologies. Solid Modeling and Applications: Rapid Prototyping, CAD and CAE Theory is ideal for university students in various engineering disciplines as well as design engineers involved in product...

  6. OPTIMASI PUSAT CLUSTER K-PROTOTYPE DENGAN ALGORITMA GENETIKA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pivin Suwirmayanti

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Teknik clustering saat ini telah banyak digunakan untuk mengatasi permasalahan yang terkait dengansegementasi data. Implementasi clustering ini dapat diterapkan pada berbagai bidang sebagai contoh dalam halpemasaran, clustering dapat digunakan sebagai metode untuk mengelompokkan data. Metode Clustering memilikitujuan untuk mengelompokkan beberapa data ke dalam beberapa kelompok data sehingga kelompok yang terbentukmemiliki kemiripan data, secara umum proses clustering diolah menggunakan tipe data numerik, namun padakenyataannya proses pengelompokan data tidak hanya menggunakan tipe data numerik, terdapat juga tipe datakategorikal. Untuk itu penulis menggunakan metode K-Prototype yang dioptimasi dengan Algortima Genetikadimana data uji yang digunakan adalah Data German Credit yang memiliki tipe data numerikal dan kategorikal.Dalam penelitian dilakukan perbandingan kinerja antara metode K-Prototype dengan Algoritma Genetika, denganmetode K-Prototype Tanpa Algortima Genetika, dan metode K-Means. Dari beberapa hasil percobaan yangdilakukan metode K-Prototype dengan Algoritma Genetika menghasilkan hasil yang terbaik dari metode KPrototypetanpa Algortima Genetika, dan metode K-Means

  7. The Universality of Semantic Prototypes in Spanish Lexical Availability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marjana Šifrar Kalan

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the words with highest index of availability on the basis of semantic fluency tests. The conceptual stability of highly available words in various semantic categories enables them to be classified as semantic prototypes according to the theory of prototype. The aim of this article is to compare the semantic prototypes in nine semantic categories from different lexical availability studies: those carried out in Spanish as a mother tongue and Spanish as a foreign language (with Slovene, Finnish, Turkish, Chinese students and students of various other mother tongues who studied Spanish in Madrid and Salamanca. The informants who come from different countries and cultures and speak different first languages demonstrate that human beings share the same or similar categorization and universality of semantic prototypes.

  8. Forecasting Value-at-Risk Using High-Frequency Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huiyu Huang

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available in the prediction of quantiles of daily Standard&Poor’s 500 (S&P 500 returns we consider how to use high-frequency 5-minute data. We examine methods that incorporate the high frequency information either indirectly, through combining forecasts (using forecasts generated from returns sampled at different intraday interval, or directly, through combining high frequency information into one model. We consider subsample averaging, bootstrap averaging, forecast averaging methods for the indirect case, and factor models with principal component approach, for both direct and indirect cases. We show that in forecasting the daily S&P 500 index return quantile (Value-at-Risk or VaR is simply the negative of it, using high-frequency information is beneficial, often substantially and particularly so, in forecasting downside risk. Our empirical results show that the averaging methods (subsample averaging, bootstrap averaging, forecast averaging, which serve as different ways of forming the ensemble average from using high-frequency intraday information, provide an excellent forecasting performance compared to using just low-frequency daily information.

  9. Deep Neural Network Based Demand Side Short Term Load Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seunghyoung Ryu

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In the smart grid, one of the most important research areas is load forecasting; it spans from traditional time series analyses to recent machine learning approaches and mostly focuses on forecasting aggregated electricity consumption. However, the importance of demand side energy management, including individual load forecasting, is becoming critical. In this paper, we propose deep neural network (DNN-based load forecasting models and apply them to a demand side empirical load database. DNNs are trained in two different ways: a pre-training restricted Boltzmann machine and using the rectified linear unit without pre-training. DNN forecasting models are trained by individual customer’s electricity consumption data and regional meteorological elements. To verify the performance of DNNs, forecasting results are compared with a shallow neural network (SNN, a double seasonal Holt–Winters (DSHW model and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE and relative root mean square error (RRMSE are used for verification. Our results show that DNNs exhibit accurate and robust predictions compared to other forecasting models, e.g., MAPE and RRMSE are reduced by up to 17% and 22% compared to SNN and 9% and 29% compared to DSHW.

  10. THE STUDY OF THE FORECASTING PROCESS INFRASTRUCTURAL SUPPORT BUSINESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. V. Sibirskaia

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Summary. When forecasting the necessary infrastructural support entrepreneurship predict rational distribution of the potential and expected results based on capacity development component of infrastructural maintenance, efficient use of resources, expertise and development of regional economies, the rationalization of administrative decisions, etc. According to the authors, the process of predicting business infrastructure software includes the following steps: analysis of the existing infrastructure support business to the top of the forecast period, the structure of resources, identifying disparities, their causes, identifying positive trends in the analysis and the results of research; research component of infrastructural support entrepreneurship, assesses complex system of social relations, institutions, structures and objects made findings and conclusions of the study; identification of areas of strategic change and the possibility of eliminating weaknesses and imbalances, identifying prospects for the development of entrepreneurship; identifying a set of factors and conditions affecting each component of infrastructure software, calculated the degree of influence of each of them and the total effect of all factors; adjustment indicators infrastructure forecasts. Research of views of category says a method of strategic planning and forecasting that methods of strategic planning are considered separately from forecasting methods. In a combination methods of strategic planning and forecasting, in relation to infrastructure ensuring business activity aren't given in literature. Nevertheless, authors consider that this category should be defined for the characteristic of the intrinsic and substantial nature of strategic planning and forecasting of infrastructure ensuring business activity.processing.

  11. Sales Growth Rate Forecasting Using Improved PSO and SVM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xibin Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate forecast of the sales growth rate plays a decisive role in determining the amount of advertising investment. In this study, we present a preclassification and later regression based method optimized by improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO for sales growth rate forecasting. We use support vector machine (SVM as a classification model. The nonlinear relationship in sales growth rate forecasting is efficiently represented by SVM, while IPSO is optimizing the training parameters of SVM. IPSO addresses issues of traditional PSO, such as relapsing into local optimum, slow convergence speed, and low convergence precision in the later evolution. We performed two experiments; firstly, three classic benchmark functions are used to verify the validity of the IPSO algorithm against PSO. Having shown IPSO outperform PSO in convergence speed, precision, and escaping local optima, in our second experiment, we apply IPSO to the proposed model. The sales growth rate forecasting cases are used to testify the forecasting performance of proposed model. According to the requirements and industry knowledge, the sample data was first classified to obtain types of the test samples. Next, the values of the test samples were forecast using the SVM regression algorithm. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model has good forecasting performance.

  12. Issues in Forecasting CMEs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pizzo, V. J.

    2017-12-01

    I will present my view of the current status of space weather forecasting abilities related to CMEs. This talk will address the large-scale aspects, but specifically not energetic particle phenomena. A key point is that all models, whether sophisticated numerical contraptions or quasi-empirical ones, are only as good as the data you feed them. Hence the emphasis will be on observations and analysis methods. First I will review where we stand with regard to the near-Sun quantitative data needed to drive any model, no matter how complex or simple-minded, and I will discuss technological roadblocks that suggest it may be some time before we see any meaningful improvements beyond what we have today. Then I cover issues related to characterizing CME propagation out through the corona and into interplanetary space, as well as to observational limitations in the vicinity of 1 AU. Since none of these observational constraints are likely to be resolved anytime soon, the real challenge is to make more informed use of what is available. Thus, this talk will focus on how we may identify and pursue the most profitable approaches, for both forecast and research applications. The discussion will highlight a number of promising leads, including those related to inclusion of solar backside information, joint magnetograph observations from L5 and Earth, how to use (not just run) ensembles, more rational use of HI observations, and suggestions for using cube-sats for deep space observations of CMEs and MCs.

  13. Texting on the Move

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... text. What's the Big Deal? The problem is multitasking. No matter how young and agile we are, ... on something other than the road. In fact, driving while texting (DWT) can be more dangerous than ...

  14. Modeling Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index Using Weighted Geometric Brownian Motion Forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gayo Willy

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index (PSEi is the main stock index of the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE. PSEi is computed using a weighted mean of the top 30 publicly traded companies in the Philippines, called component stocks. It provides a single value by which the performance of the Philippine stock market is measured. Unfortunately, these weights, which may vary for every trading day, are not disclosed by the PSE. In this paper, we propose a model of forecasting the PSEi by estimating the weights based on historical data and forecasting each component stock using Monte Carlo simulation based on a Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM assumption. The model performance is evaluated and its forecast compared is with the results using a direct GBM forecast of PSEi over different forecast periods. Results showed that the forecasts using WGBM will yield smaller error compared to direct GBM forecast of PSEi.

  15. A Novel Flood Forecasting Method Based on Initial State Variable Correction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuang Li

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The influence of initial state variables on flood forecasting accuracy by using conceptual hydrological models is analyzed in this paper and a novel flood forecasting method based on correction of initial state variables is proposed. The new method is abbreviated as ISVC (Initial State Variable Correction. The ISVC takes the residual between the measured and forecasted flows during the initial period of the flood event as the objective function, and it uses a particle swarm optimization algorithm to correct the initial state variables, which are then used to drive the flood forecasting model. The historical flood events of 11 watersheds in south China are forecasted and verified, and important issues concerning the ISVC application are then discussed. The study results show that the ISVC is effective and applicable in flood forecasting tasks. It can significantly improve the flood forecasting accuracy in most cases.

  16. Short-term Probabilistic Load Forecasting with the Consideration of Human Body Amenity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ning Lu

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Load forecasting is the basis of power system planning and design. It is important for the economic operation and reliability assurance of power system. However, the results of load forecasting given by most existing methods are deterministic. This study aims at probabilistic load forecasting. First, the support vector machine regression is used to acquire the deterministic results of load forecasting with the consideration of human body amenity. Then the probabilistic load forecasting at a certain confidence level is given after the analysis of error distribution law corresponding to certain heat index interval. The final simulation shows that this probabilistic forecasting method is easy to implement and can provide more information than the deterministic forecasting results, and thus is helpful for decision-makers to make reasonable decisions.

  17. Skill prediction of local weather forecasts based on the ECMWF ensemble

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Ziehmann

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available Ensemble Prediction has become an essential part of numerical weather forecasting. In this paper we investigate the ability of ensemble forecasts to provide an a priori estimate of the expected forecast skill. Several quantities derived from the local ensemble distribution are investigated for a two year data set of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF temperature and wind speed ensemble forecasts at 30 German stations. The results indicate that the population of the ensemble mode provides useful information for the uncertainty in temperature forecasts. The ensemble entropy is a similar good measure. This is not true for the spread if it is simply calculated as the variance of the ensemble members with respect to the ensemble mean. The number of clusters in the C regions is almost unrelated to the local skill. For wind forecasts, the results are less promising.

  18. Axure RP 6 Prototyping Essentials

    CERN Document Server

    Schwartz, Ezra

    2012-01-01

    Axure RP 6 Prototyping Essentials is a detailed, practical primer on the leading rapid prototyping tool. Short on jargon and high on concepts, real-life scenarios and step-by-step guidance through hands-on examples, this book will show you how to integrate Axure into your UX workflow. This book is written for UX practitioners, business analysts, product managers, and anyone else who is involved in UX projects. The book assumes that you have no or very little familiarity with Axure. It will help you if you are evaluating the tool for an upcoming project or are required to quickly get up to spee

  19. CONCEPTUAL PRODUCT DESIGN IN VIRTUAL PROTOTYPING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Debeleac Carmen

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available A conceptual model of the industrial design process for isolation against vibrations is proposed and described. This model can be used to design products subject to functional, manufacturing, ergonomic, aesthetic constraints. In this paper, the main stages of the model, such as component organization, conception shape, product detailing and graphical design are discussed. The work has confirmed the validity of proposed model for rapid generation of aesthetic preliminary product designs using the virtual prototyping technique, by one of its main component that is conceptual product design.

  20. Surface quality in rapid prototype MMD process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisandro Vargas Henríquez

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available This article summarises a Manufacturing Materials and Processes MSc thesis written for the Mechanical and Electrical Engineering Department. The paper shows the interaction of process, gap (deposition distance and extursion terminal velocity modelled process parameters for CEIF's (Centro de Equipos Interfacultades rapid prototype molten material deposit (MMD Titan SH-1 machine by analysing prototupes improved surface quality and resistence to tension and characterising material. The project applies experimental design criteria for orientating the selection of experimental process parameters. Acrylonitrile-buttadin-styrene (ABS had alredy been mechanically and physicochemically characterised (i.e the material used in the MMD process.

  1. Prototype-based active learning for lemmatization

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Daelemans, W

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available ] and Word Length [Long to Short] with the prototypical curves (e.g. Word Frequency [High to Low] and [Word Length Short to Long]). (With regard to the learning curves representing word frequency, refer to 4.1 for an explanation of why [High to Low... of language usage [15]. Secondly, in memory-based language processing [16] it has been argued, on the basis of com- parative machine learning experiments on natural lan- guage processing data, that exceptions are crucial for obtaining high generalization...

  2. Prototype implementation of segment assembling software

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pešić Đorđe

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available IT education is very important and a lot of effort is put into the development of tools for helping students to acquire programming knowledge and for helping teachers in automating the examination process. This paper describes a prototype of the program segment assembling software used in the context of making tests in the field of algorithmic complexity. The proposed new program segment assembling model uses rules and templates. A template is a simple program segment. A rule defines combining method and data dependencies if they exist. One example of program segment assembling by the proposed system is given. Graphical user interface is also described.

  3. A national-scale seasonal hydrological forecast system: development and evaluation over Britain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. A. Bell

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Skilful winter seasonal predictions for the North Atlantic circulation and northern Europe have now been demonstrated and the potential for seasonal hydrological forecasting in the UK is now being explored. One of the techniques being used combines seasonal rainfall forecasts provided by operational weather forecast systems with hydrological modelling tools to provide estimates of seasonal mean river flows up to a few months ahead. The work presented here shows how spatial information contained in a distributed hydrological model typically requiring high-resolution (daily or better rainfall data can be used to provide an initial condition for a much simpler forecast model tailored to use low-resolution monthly rainfall forecasts. Rainfall forecasts (hindcasts from the GloSea5 model (1996 to 2009 are used to provide the first assessment of skill in these national-scale flow forecasts. The skill in the combined modelling system is assessed for different seasons and regions of Britain, and compared to what might be achieved using other approaches such as use of an ensemble of historical rainfall in a hydrological model, or a simple flow persistence forecast. The analysis indicates that only limited forecast skill is achievable for Spring and Summer seasonal hydrological forecasts; however, Autumn and Winter flows can be reasonably well forecast using (ensemble mean rainfall forecasts based on either GloSea5 forecasts or historical rainfall (the preferred type of forecast depends on the region. Flow forecasts using ensemble mean GloSea5 rainfall perform most consistently well across Britain, and provide the most skilful forecasts overall at the 3-month lead time. Much of the skill (64 % in the 1-month ahead seasonal flow forecasts can be attributed to the hydrological initial condition (particularly in regions with a significant groundwater contribution to flows, whereas for the 3-month ahead lead time, GloSea5 forecasts account for  ∼ 70

  4. Text Coherence in Translation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yanping

    2009-01-01

    In the thesis a coherent text is defined as a continuity of senses of the outcome of combining concepts and relations into a network composed of knowledge space centered around main topics. And the author maintains that in order to obtain the coherence of a target language text from a source text during the process of translation, a translator can…

  5. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) [1 Deg.

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members. The National Centers for Environmental...

  6. Guidelines for forecasting energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sonino, T.

    1976-11-01

    Four methodologies for forecasting energy demand are reviewed here after considering the role of energy in the economy and the analysis of energy use in different economic sectors. The special case of Israel is considered throughout, and some forecasts for energy demands in the year 2000 are presented. An energy supply mix that may be considered feasible is proposed. (author)

  7. Regional-seasonal weather forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

    1980-08-01

    In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

  8. Forecasting the future of biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fitzpatrick, M. C.; Sanders, Nate; Ferrier, Simon

    2011-01-01

    , but their application to forecasting climate change impacts on biodiversity has been limited. Here we compare forecasts of changes in patterns of ant biodiversity in North America derived from ensembles of single-species models to those from a multi-species modeling approach, Generalized Dissimilarity Modeling (GDM...... climate change impacts on biodiversity....

  9. Forecasts: uncertain, inaccurate and biased?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nicolaisen, Morten Skou; Ambrasaite, Inga; Salling, Kim Bang

    2012-01-01

    Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) is the dominating methodology for appraisal of transport infrastructure projects across the globe. In order to adequately assess the costs and benefits of such projects two types of forecasts are crucial to the validity of the appraisal. First are the forecasts of cons....... It is recommended that more attention is given to monitoring completed projects so future forecasts can benefit from better data availability through systematic ex-post evaluations, and an example of how to utilize such data in practice is presented.......Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) is the dominating methodology for appraisal of transport infrastructure projects across the globe. In order to adequately assess the costs and benefits of such projects two types of forecasts are crucial to the validity of the appraisal. First are the forecasts...... of construction costs, which account for the majority of total project costs. Second are the forecasts of travel time savings, which account for the majority of total project benefits. The latter of these is, inter alia, determined by forecasts of travel demand, which we shall use as a proxy for the forecasting...

  10. Ensemble hydromoeteorological forecasting in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lucatero Villasenor, Diana

    forecasts where a dampening of the differences of precipitation quality occurs. Seasonal meteorological forecasts are possible due to changes of large scale patterns of the ocean and land, such as el Niño, that evolve at a much slower pace than the atmosphere, which can have an impact on its evolution later...

  11. Now, Here's the Weather Forecast...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Mathew

    2013-01-01

    The Met Office has a long history of weather forecasting, creating tailored weather forecasts for customers across the world. Based in Exeter, the Met Office is also home to the Met Office Hadley Centre, a world-leading centre for the study of climate change and its potential impacts. Climate information from the Met Office Hadley Centre is used…

  12. Three-dimensional visualization of ensemble weather forecasts – Part 2: Forecasting warm conveyor belt situations for aircraft-based field campaigns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Rautenhaus

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available We present the application of interactive three-dimensional (3-D visualization of ensemble weather predictions to forecasting warm conveyor belt situations during aircraft-based atmospheric research campaigns. Motivated by forecast requirements of the T-NAWDEX-Falcon 2012 (THORPEX – North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment campaign, a method to predict 3-D probabilities of the spatial occurrence of warm conveyor belts (WCBs has been developed. Probabilities are derived from Lagrangian particle trajectories computed on the forecast wind fields of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Integration of the method into the 3-D ensemble visualization tool Met.3D, introduced in the first part of this study, facilitates interactive visualization of WCB features and derived probabilities in the context of the ECMWF ensemble forecast. We investigate the sensitivity of the method with respect to trajectory seeding and grid spacing of the forecast wind field. Furthermore, we propose a visual analysis method to quantitatively analyse the contribution of ensemble members to a probability region and, thus, to assist the forecaster in interpreting the obtained probabilities. A case study, revisiting a forecast case from T-NAWDEX-Falcon, illustrates the practical application of Met.3D and demonstrates the use of 3-D and uncertainty visualization for weather forecasting and for planning flight routes in the medium forecast range (3 to 7 days before take-off.

  13. Method of forecasting power distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaneto, Kunikazu.

    1981-01-01

    Purpose: To obtain forecasting results at high accuracy by reflecting the signals from neutron detectors disposed in the reactor core on the forecasting results. Method: An on-line computer transfers, to a simulator, those process data such as temperature and flow rate for coolants in each of the sections and various measuring signals such as control rod positions from the nuclear reactor. The simulator calculates the present power distribution before the control operation. The signals from the neutron detectors at each of the positions in the reactor core are estimated from the power distribution and errors are determined based on the estimated values and the measured values to determine the smooth error distribution in the axial direction. Then, input conditions at the time to be forecast are set by a data setter. The simulator calculates the forecast power distribution after the control operation based on the set conditions. The forecast power distribution is corrected using the error distribution. (Yoshino, Y.)

  14. Energy forecasts, perspectives and methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Svensson, J E; Mogren, A

    1984-01-01

    The authors have analyzed different methods for long term energy prognoses, in particular energy consumption forecasts. Energy supply and price prognoses are also treated, but in a less detailed manner. After defining and discussing the various methods/models used in forecasts, a generalized discussion of the influence on the prognoses from the perspectives (background factors, world view, norms, ideology) of the prognosis makers is given. Some basic formal demands that should be asked from any rational forecast are formulated and discussed. The authors conclude that different forecasting methodologies are supplementing each other. There is no best method, forecasts should be accepted as views of the future from differing perspectives. The primary prognostic problem is to show the possible futures, selecting the wanted future is a question of political process.

  15. Forecasting the Seasonal Timing of Maine's Lobster Fishery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katherine E. Mills

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The fishery for American lobster is currently the highest-valued commercial fishery in the United States, worth over US$620 million in dockside value in 2015. During a marine heat wave in 2012, the fishery was disrupted by the early warming of spring ocean temperatures and subsequent influx of lobster landings. This situation resulted in a price collapse, as the supply chain was not prepared for the early and abundant landings of lobsters. Motivated by this series of events, we have developed a forecast of when the Maine (USA lobster fishery will shift into its high volume summer landings period. The forecast uses a regression approach to relate spring ocean temperatures derived from four NERACOOS buoys along the coast of Maine to the start day of the high landings period of the fishery. Tested against conditions in past years, the forecast is able to predict the start day to within 1 week of the actual start, and the forecast can be issued 3–4 months prior to the onset of the high-landings period, providing valuable lead-time for the fishery and its associated supply chain to prepare for the upcoming season. Forecast results are conveyed in a probabilistic manner and are updated weekly over a 6-week forecasting period so that users can assess the certainty and consistency of the forecast and factor the uncertainty into their use of the information in a given year. By focusing on the timing of events, this type of seasonal forecast provides climate-relevant information to users at time scales that are meaningful for operational decisions. As climate change alters seasonal phenology and reduces the reliability of past experience as a guide for future expectations, this type of forecast can enable fishing industry participants to better adjust to and prepare for operating in the context of climate change.

  16. The use of various interplanetary scintillation indices within geomagnetic forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. A. Lucek

    Full Text Available Interplanetary scintillation (IPS, the twinkling of small angular diameter radio sources, is caused by the interaction of the signal with small-scale plasma irregularities in the solar wind. The technique may be used to sense remotely the near-Earth heliosphere and observations of a sufficiently large number of sources may be used to track large-scale disturbances as they propagate from close to the Sun to the Earth. Therefore, such observations have potential for use within geomagnetic forecasts. We use daily data from the Mullard Radio Astronomy Observatory, made available through the World Data Centre, to test the success of geomagnetic forecasts based on IPS observations. The approach discussed here was based on the reduction of the information in a map to a single number or series of numbers. The advantages of an index of this nature are that it may be produced routinely and that it could ideally forecast both the occurrence and intensity of geomagnetic activity. We start from an index that has already been described in the literature, INDEX35. On the basis of visual examination of the data in a full skymap format modifications were made to the way in which the index was calculated. It was hoped that these would lead to an improvement in its forecasting ability. Here we assess the forecasting potential of the index using the value of the correlation coefficient between daily Ap and the IPS index, with IPS leading by 1 day. We also compare the forecast based on the IPS index with forecasts of Ap currently released by the Space Environment Services Center (SESC. Although we find that the maximum improvement achieved is small, and does not represent a significant advance in forecasting ability, the IPS forecasts at this phase of the solar cycle are of a similar quality to those made by SESC.

  17. Vocabulary Constraint on Texts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Sutarsyah

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This case study was carried out in the English Education Department of State University of Malang. The aim of the study was to identify and describe the vocabulary in the reading text and to seek if the text is useful for reading skill development. A descriptive qualitative design was applied to obtain the data. For this purpose, some available computer programs were used to find the description of vocabulary in the texts. It was found that the 20 texts containing 7,945 words are dominated by low frequency words which account for 16.97% of the words in the texts. The high frequency words occurring in the texts were dominated by function words. In the case of word levels, it was found that the texts have very limited number of words from GSL (General Service List of English Words (West, 1953. The proportion of the first 1,000 words of GSL only accounts for 44.6%. The data also show that the texts contain too large proportion of words which are not in the three levels (the first 2,000 and UWL. These words account for 26.44% of the running words in the texts.  It is believed that the constraints are due to the selection of the texts which are made of a series of short-unrelated texts. This kind of text is subject to the accumulation of low frequency words especially those of content words and limited of words from GSL. It could also defeat the development of students' reading skills and vocabulary enrichment.

  18. Adaptive Text Entry for Mobile Devices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Proschowsky, Morten Smidt

    The reduced size of many mobile devices makes it difficult to enter text with them. The text entry methods are often slow or complicated to use. This affects the performance and user experience of all applications and services on the device. This work introduces new easy-to-use text entry methods...... for mobile devices and a framework for adaptive context-aware language models. Based on analysis of current text entry methods, the requirements to the new text entry methods are established. Transparent User guided Prediction (TUP) is a text entry method for devices with one dimensional touch input. It can...... be touch sensitive wheels, sliders or similar input devices. The interaction design of TUP is done with a combination of high level task models and low level models of human motor behaviour. Three prototypes of TUP are designed and evaluated by more than 30 users. Observations from the evaluations are used...

  19. NMS Prototype development final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lepetich, J.E.

    1993-01-01

    Program for development of NMS prototype for LAMPF consisted of 5 tasks: crystal procurement specification, inspection/evaluation of CsI crystals, design/fabrication of crystal housing, design/fabrication of PMT shields, and packaging of crystals in the housing

  20. EUSO-TA prototype telescope

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bisconti, Francesca, E-mail: francesca.bisconti@kit.edu

    2016-07-11

    EUSO-TA is one of the prototypes developed for the JEM-EUSO project, a space-based large field-of-view telescope to observe the fluorescence light emitted by cosmic ray air showers in the atmosphere. EUSO-TA is a ground-based prototype located at the Telescope Array (TA) site in Utah, USA, where an Electron Light Source and a Central Laser Facility are installed. The purpose of the EUSO-TA project is to calibrate the prototype with the TA fluorescence detector in presence of well-known light sources and cosmic ray air showers. In 2015, the detector started the first measurements and tests using the mentioned light sources have been performed successfully. A first cosmic ray candidate has been observed, as well as stars of different magnitude and color index. Since Silicon Photo-Multipliers (SiPMs) are very promising for fluorescence telescopes of next generation, they are under consideration for the realization of a new prototype of EUSO Photo Detector Module (PDM). The response of this sensor type is under investigation through simulations and laboratory experimentation.