Presidential Decision no. 3 of 19 March 1971 - Definition of general rules to be compiled with for the conclusion of contracts with national or foreign undertakings in relation to the prospection, identification and exploration of deposits of radioactive ores and their refining
This Decision lays down the procedure to be followed when submitting an application to enter into a contract for prospecting for and exploring radioactive ore deposits and determines the authorities competent in this respect. (NEA) [fr
Full Text Available In preventative health decisions, such as the decision to undergo an invasive screening test or treatment, people may be deterred from selecting the test because its perceived disutility relative to not testing is greater than the utility associated with prevention of possible disease. The prospect theory editing operation, by which a decision maker's reference point is determined, can have important effects on the disutility of the test. On the basis of the prospect theory value function, this paper develops two approaches to reducing disutility by directing the decision maker's attention to either (actual past or (expected future losses that result in shifted reference points. After providing a graphical description of the approaches and a mathematical proof of the direction of their effect on judgment, we briefly illustrate the potential value of these approaches with examples from qualitative research on prostate cancer treatment decisions.
Bayoumi, A M; Redelmeier, D A
Individuals sometimes express preferences that do not follow expected utility theory. Cumulative prospect theory adjusts for some phenomena by using decision weights rather than probabilities when analyzing a decision tree. The authors examined how probability transformations from cumulative prospect theory might alter a decision analysis of a prophylactic therapy in AIDS, eliciting utilities from patients with HIV infection (n = 75) and calculating expected outcomes using an established Markov model. They next focused on transformations of three sets of probabilities: 1) the probabilities used in calculating standard-gamble utility scores; 2) the probabilities of being in discrete Markov states; 3) the probabilities of transitioning between Markov states. The same prophylaxis strategy yielded the highest quality-adjusted survival under all transformations. For the average patient, prophylaxis appeared relatively less advantageous when standard-gamble utilities were transformed. Prophylaxis appeared relatively more advantageous when state probabilities were transformed and relatively less advantageous when transition probabilities were transformed. Transforming standard-gamble and transition probabilities simultaneously decreased the gain from prophylaxis by almost half. Sensitivity analysis indicated that even near-linear probability weighting transformations could substantially alter quality-adjusted survival estimates. The magnitude of benefit estimated in a decision-analytic model can change significantly after using cumulative prospect theory. Incorporating cumulative prospect theory into decision analysis can provide a form of sensitivity analysis and may help describe when people deviate from expected utility theory.
Mowrer, Robert R; Davidson, William B
Two studies are reported that investigate the applicability of prospect theory to college students' academic decision making. Exp. 1 failed to provide support for the risk-seeking portion of the fourfold pattern predicted by prospect theory but did find the greater weighting of losses over gains. Using a more sensitive dependent measure, in Exp. 2 the results of the first experiment were replicated in terms of the gain-loss effect and also found some support for the fourfold pattern in the interaction between probabilities and gain versus loss. The greatest risk-seeking was found in the high probability loss condition.
Stewart, Neil; Chater, Nick; Stott, Henry P; Reimers, Stian
In many theories of decision under risk (e.g., expected utility theory, rank-dependent utility theory, and prospect theory), the utility of a prospect is independent of other options in the choice set. The experiments presented here show a large effect of the available options, suggesting instead that prospects are valued relative to one another. The judged certainty equivalent for a prospect is strongly influenced by the options available. Similarly, the selection of a preferred prospect is strongly influenced by the prospects available. Alternative theories of decision under risk (e.g., the stochastic difference model, multialternative decision field theory, and range frequency theory), where prospects are valued relative to one another, can provide an account of these context effects.
McKeown, Charles; Adelaja, Adesoji; Calnin, Benjamin
This paper presents the rudiments of a Wind Prospecting Tool designed to inform private and public decision makers involved in wind industry development in reducing transaction costs associated with identifying areas of mutual focus within a state. The multiple layer decision support framework has proven to be valuable to industry, state government and local decision makers. Information on wind resources, land availability, potential land costs, potential NIMBYism concerns and economic development potential were integrated to develop a framework for decision support. The paper also highlights implications for decision support research and the role of higher education in providing anticipatory science to enhance private and public choices in economic development. - Research Highlights: →In this paper we explore the building and value of a wind industry location decision support tool. →We examine the development process from the industry perspective. →We discuss the creation of a decision support tool that was designed for industry, state policy makers and local decision makers. →We build a model framework for wind prospecting decision support. →Finally we discuss the impact on local and state decision making as a result of being informed by science based decision support.
Lombardi, Elisabetta; Di Dio, Cinzia; Castelli, Ilaria; Massaro, Davide; Marchetti, Antonella
In this study, we seek to widen our understanding of the developmental processes underlying bargaining behaviour in children addressing the concept of prospective thinking. We argue that the emergence of the capacity to think prospectively about future outcomes or behaviours in response to current actions is a required precedent to strategic decision making. To test this idea, we compared 6, 8 and 10 years old children’s performance on three tasks: the ultimatum game assessing fairness/inequa...
Broeksema, Bertjan; Baudel, Thomas; Telea, Alex; Crisafulli, Paolo
We present a visual analytics solution designed to address prevalent issues in the area of Operational Decision Management (ODM). In ODM, which has its roots in Artificial Intelligence (Expert Systems) and Management Science, it is increasingly important to align business decisions with business
Merrick, Jason R W; Leclerc, Philip
Counterterrorism decisions have been an intense area of research in recent years. Both decision analysis and game theory have been used to model such decisions, and more recently approaches have been developed that combine the techniques of the two disciplines. However, each of these approaches assumes that the attacker is maximizing its utility. Experimental research shows that human beings do not make decisions by maximizing expected utility without aid, but instead deviate in specific ways such as loss aversion or likelihood insensitivity. In this article, we modify existing methods for counterterrorism decisions. We keep expected utility as the defender's paradigm to seek for the rational decision, but we use prospect theory to solve for the attacker's decision to descriptively model the attacker's loss aversion and likelihood insensitivity. We study the effects of this approach in a critical decision, whether to screen containers entering the United States for radioactive materials. We find that the defender's optimal decision is sensitive to the attacker's levels of loss aversion and likelihood insensitivity, meaning that understanding such descriptive decision effects is important in making such decisions. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.
Darrell A. Worthy
Full Text Available In two experiments we examined the role of emotion, specifically worry, anxiety and mood, on prospection during decision-making. Worry is a particularly relevant emotion to study in the context of prospection because high levels of worry may make individuals more aversive toward the uncertainty associated with the prospect of obtaining future improvements in rewards or states. Thus, high levels of worry might lead to reduced prospection during decision-making and enhance preference for immediate over delayed rewards. In Experiment 1 participants performed a two-choice dynamic decision-making task where they were required to choose between one option (the decreasing option which provided larger immediate rewards but declines in future states, and another option (the increasing option which provided smaller immediate rewards but improvements in future states, making it the optimal choice. High levels of worry were associated with poorer performance in the task. Additionally, fits of a sophisticated reinforcement-learning model that incorporated both reward-based and state-based information suggested that individuals reporting high levels of worry gave greater weight to the immediate rewards they would receive on each trial than to the degree to which each action would lead to improvements in their future state. In Experiment 2 we found that high levels of worry were associated with greater delay discounting using a standard delay discounting task. Combined, the results suggest that high levels of worry are associated with reduced prospection during decision-making. We attribute these results to high worriers’ aversion toward the greater uncertainty associated with attempting to improve future rewards than to maximize immediate reward. These results have implications for researchers interested in the effects of emotion on cognition, and suggest that emotion strongly affects the focus on temporal outcomes during decision-making.
Worthy, Darrell A; Byrne, Kaileigh A; Fields, Sherecce
In two experiments we examined the role of emotion, specifically worry, anxiety, and mood, on prospection during decision-making. Worry is a particularly relevant emotion to study in the context of prospection because high levels of worry may make individuals more aversive toward the uncertainty associated with the prospect of obtaining future improvements in rewards or states. Thus, high levels of worry might lead to reduced prospection during decision-making and enhance preference for immediate over delayed rewards. In Experiment 1 participants performed a two-choice dynamic decision-making task where they were required to choose between one option (the decreasing option) which provided larger immediate rewards but declines in future states, and another option (the increasing option) which provided smaller immediate rewards but improvements in future states, making it the optimal choice. High levels of worry were associated with poorer performance in the task. Additionally, fits of a sophisticated reinforcement-learning model that incorporated both reward-based and state-based information suggested that individuals reporting high levels of worry gave greater weight to the immediate rewards they would receive on each trial than to the degree to which each action would lead to improvements in their future state. In Experiment 2 we found that high levels of worry were associated with greater delay discounting using a standard delay discounting task. Combined, the results suggest that high levels of worry are associated with reduced prospection during decision-making. We attribute these results to high worriers' aversion toward the greater uncertainty associated with attempting to improve future rewards than to maximize immediate reward. These results have implications for researchers interested in the effects of emotion on cognition, and suggest that emotion strongly affects the focus on temporal outcomes during decision-making.
Russia’s accomplishments in planetary space exploration were not achieved easily. Formerly, the USSR experienced frustration in trying to tame unreliable Molniya and Proton upper stages and in tracking spacecraft over long distances. This book will assess the scientific haul of data from the Venus and Mars missions and look at the engineering approaches. The USSR developed several generations of planetary probes: from MV and Zond to the Phobos type. The engineering techniques used and the science packages are examined, as well as the nature of the difficulties encountered which ruined several missions. The programme’s scientific and engineering legacy is also addressed, as well as its role within the Soviet space programme as a whole. Brian Harvey concludes by looking forward to future Russian planetary exploration (e.g Phobos Grunt sample return mission). Several plans have been considered and may, with a restoration of funding, come to fruition. Soviet studies of deep space and Mars missions (e.g. TMK, ...
Merrall, Elizabeth L. C.; Dhami, Mandeep K.; Bird, Sheila M.
The determinants of sentencing are of much interest in criminal justice and legal research. Understanding the determinants of sentencing decisions is important for ensuring transparent, consistent, and justifiable sentencing practice that adheres to the goals of sentencing, such as the punishment, rehabilitation, deterrence, and incapacitation of…
Johnson, Jonni L; Shelley, Alexandra E
Although decisions in child sexual abuse (CSA) cases are influenced by many factors (e.g., child age, juror gender), case and trial characteristics (e.g., interview quality) can strongly influence legal outcomes. In the present study, 319 prospective jurors read about a CSA investigation in which the alleged victim was interviewed at a child advocacy center (CAC) or traditional police setting. The prospective jurors then provided legally relevant ratings (e.g., child credibility, interview quality, defendant guilt). Structural equation modeling techniques revealed that child credibility predicted greater confidence in guilt decisions and also mediated all associations with such decisions. Having fewer negative prior opinions and rating the interview as of better quality were associated with higher child credibility ratings. Mitigating factors (e.g., interview quality), as opposed to proxy indicators (e.g., participant gender), better predicted CSA case outcomes. Similar associations across groups (e.g., CAC interviews did not make child victims more or less credible) permit a tentative conclusion that CACs do not positively or negatively affect decisions made in hypothetical CSA cases. Ideas for future studies examining factors influencing decisions in CSA cases are discussed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
The main purpose of this paper was to show that the certainty and reflection effects of prospect theory do not occur when stimuli have an affective value. To this end, 160 participants were asked to reply to a series of problems originally designed by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), but modified according to the contributions of Rottenstreich and Hsee (2001). The sample was divided into four experimental conditions, two in a gain situation and two in a loss situation. In both cases, affect-rich and affect-poor stimuli were applied in sure and probable alternatives. The findings showed that, in agreement with our hypotheses, the affective value of the stimuli altered the outcome predicted by prospect theory, showing response patterns contrary to certainty and reflection effects (p ≤ .01 and p ≤ .05 respectively). Therefore, this research supports the influence of the emotions in the decision-making process, and should be extended to other aspects of prospect theory.
Pezzulo, Giovanni; Rigoli, Francesco
Traditional theories of decision-making assume that utilities are based on the intrinsic value of outcomes; in turn, these values depend on associations between expected outcomes and the current motivational state of the decision-maker. This view disregards the fact that humans (and possibly other animals) have prospection abilities, which permit anticipating future mental processes and motivational and emotional states. For instance, we can evaluate future outcomes in light of the motivational state we expect to have when the outcome is collected, not (only) when we make a decision. Consequently, we can plan for the future and choose to store food to be consumed when we expect to be hungry, not immediately. Furthermore, similarly to any expected outcome, we can assign a value to our anticipated mental processes and emotions. It has been reported that (in some circumstances) human subjects prefer to receive an unavoidable punishment immediately, probably because they are anticipating the dread associated with the time spent waiting for the punishment. This article offers a formal framework to guide neuroeconomic research on how prospection affects decision-making. The model has two characteristics. First, it uses model-based Bayesian inference to describe anticipation of cognitive and motivational processes. Second, the utility-maximization process considers these anticipations in two ways: to evaluate outcomes (e.g., the pleasure of eating a pie is evaluated differently at the beginning of a dinner, when one is hungry, and at the end of the dinner, when one is satiated), and as outcomes having a value themselves (e.g., the case of dread as a cost of waiting for punishment). By explicitly accounting for the relationship between prospection and value, our model provides a framework to reconcile the utility-maximization approach with psychological phenomena such as planning for the future and dread.
Full Text Available Traditional theories of decision-making assume that utilities are based on the intrinsic value of outcomes; in turn, these values depend on associations between expected outcomes and the current motivational state of the decision-maker. This view disregards the fact that humans (and possibly other animals have prospection abilities, which permit anticipating future mental processes and motivational and emotional states. For instance, we can evaluate future outcomes in light of the motivational state we expect to have when the outcome is collected, not (only when we make a decision. Consequently, we can plan for the future and choose to store food to be consumed when we expect to be hungrier, not immediately. Furthermore, similarly to any expected outcome, we can assign a a value to our anticipated mental processes and emotions. It has been reported that (in some circumstances human subjects prefer to receive an unavoidable punishment immediately, probably because they are anticipating the dread associated with the time spent waiting for the punishment. This article offers a formal framework to guide neuroeconomic research on how prospection affects decision-making. The model has two characteristics. First, it uses model-based Bayesian inference to describe anticipation of cognitive and motivational processes. Second, the utility maximization process considers these anticipations in two ways: to evaluate outcomes (e.g., the pleasure of eating a pie is evaluated differently at the beginning of a dinner, when one is hungry, and at the end of the dinner, when one is satiated, and as outcomes having a value themselves (e.g., the case of dread as a cost of waiting for punishment. By explicitly accounting for the relationship between prospection and value, our model provides a framework to reconcile the utility-maximization approach with psychological phenomena such as planning for the future and dread.
Rosendhal, Jeffrey D.
A review is given of the ways in which the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has participated in international efforts to explore the solar system. Past examples of successful international cooperative programs are described. Prospects for future cooperative efforts are discussed with emphasis placed on current events, issues, and trends which are likely to affect possibilities for cooperation over the next 5 to 10 years. Key factors which will play a major role in shaping future prospects for cooperation include the move towards balancing the budget in the United States and the impact of the Challenger accident on the NASA program.
Jespersen, Kristina Risom
different Scandinavian companies. Data was analyzed using hierarchical regression models across decision criteria dimensions and NPD stages as well as analyzing the combination of selected information sources. Rather than forwarding one optimal search behavior for the entire NPD process, we find optimal...... information search behavior at either end of the exploitation/exploration continuum. Additionally, we find that overexploitation and overexploration is caused by managerial bias. This creates managerial misbehavior at gate decision-points of the NPD process.......The purpose of this study is to examine how the exploration/exploitation continuum is applied by decision-makers in new product gate decision-making. Specifically, we analyze at gate decision-points how the evaluation of a new product project is affected by the information source exploitation...
HIV-positive women's abortion decisions were explored by: (i) investigating influencing factors; (ii) determining knowledge of abortion policy and public health services; and (iii) exploring abortion experiences. In-depth interviews were held with 24 HIVpositive women (15 had an abortion; 9 did not), recruited at public health ...
Full Text Available In this study, we seek to widen our understanding of the developmental processes underlying bargaining behaviour in children addressing the concept of prospective thinking. We argue that the emergence of the capacity to think prospectively about future outcomes or behaviours in response to current actions is a required precedent to strategic decision making. To test this idea, we compared 6, 8 and 10 years old children’s performance on three tasks: the ultimatum game assessing fairness/inequality aversion, the marshmallow task, an intertemporal choice task evaluating the ability to delay gratification, and the dictator game assessing altruism. The children’s socio-demographic and cognitive variables were also evaluated. We hypothesized that development of strategic thinking in the ultimatum game is related to an increased ability to delay gratification − given that both tasks require looking at prospective benefits − and, crucially, not to altruism, which benefits from immediate selfless reward. Our results confirmed our hypothesis suggesting that increased strategic planning with age would also stem from the development of competencies like prospective thinking. Keywords: Psychology, Education
Lombardi, Elisabetta; Di Dio, Cinzia; Castelli, Ilaria; Massaro, Davide; Marchetti, Antonella
In this study, we seek to widen our understanding of the developmental processes underlying bargaining behaviour in children addressing the concept of prospective thinking. We argue that the emergence of the capacity to think prospectively about future outcomes or behaviours in response to current actions is a required precedent to strategic decision making. To test this idea, we compared 6, 8 and 10 years old children's performance on three tasks: the ultimatum game assessing fairness/inequality aversion, the marshmallow task, an intertemporal choice task evaluating the ability to delay gratification, and the dictator game assessing altruism. The children's socio-demographic and cognitive variables were also evaluated. We hypothesized that development of strategic thinking in the ultimatum game is related to an increased ability to delay gratification - given that both tasks require looking at prospective benefits - and, crucially, not to altruism, which benefits from immediate selfless reward. Our results confirmed our hypothesis suggesting that increased strategic planning with age would also stem from the development of competencies like prospective thinking.
Gertsson, Nellie; Sylvander, Johanna; Broberg, Pernilla; Friberg, Josefine
Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to explore why audit assistants leave the audit profession. By including both the perceptions held by audit assistants that left the audit profession and the perceptions of audit assistants still working in the audit profession, this study aims to explore how determinants of job satisfaction are associated with decisions to leave the audit profession. Design/methodology/approach - To explore the association between determinants of job satisfaction and de...
Bals, Lydia; Kirchoff, Jon F.; Foerstl, Kai
The topics of reshoring and insourcing have recently become more widely discussed among operations management and international business scholars and managers, as some firms are revoking their offshoring and outsourcing decisions. This research focuses on and clarifies the decision making process...... organizational readiness in addition to decision drivers, improve coverage of the implementation stage and explore further contingency factors such as technological advancement as well as to focus on decision makers as the unit of analysis.......The topics of reshoring and insourcing have recently become more widely discussed among operations management and international business scholars and managers, as some firms are revoking their offshoring and outsourcing decisions. This research focuses on and clarifies the decision making processes...
Akar, S.; Young, K. R.
Geothermal exploration projects have significant amount of risk associated with uncertainties encountered in the discovery of the geothermal resource. Understanding when and how to proceed in an exploration program, and when to walk away from a site, are two of the largest challenges for increased geothermal deployment. Current methodologies for exploration decision making is left to subjective by subjective expert opinion which can be incorrectly biased by expertise (e.g. geochemistry, geophysics), geographic location of focus, and the assumed conceptual model. The aim of this project is to develop a methodology for more objective geothermal exploration decision making at a given location, including go-no-go decision points to help developers and investors decide when to give up on a location. In this scope, two different approaches are investigated: 1) value of information analysis (VOIA) which is used for evaluating and quantifying the value of a data before they are purchased, and 2) enthalpy-based exploration targeting based on reservoir size, temperature gradient estimates, and internal rate of return (IRR). The first approach, VOIA, aims to identify the value of a particular data when making decisions with an uncertain outcome. This approach targets the pre-drilling phase of exploration. These estimated VOIs are highly affected by the size of the project and still have a high degree of subjectivity in assignment of probabilities. The second approach, exploration targeting, is focused on decision making during the drilling phase. It starts with a basic geothermal project definition that includes target and minimum required production capacity and initial budgeting for exploration phases. Then, it uses average temperature gradient, reservoir temperature estimates, and production capacity to define targets and go/no-go limits. The decision analysis in this approach is based on achieving a minimum IRR at each phase of the project. This second approach was
Clark, William A V; Lisowski, William
Migration has always involved stress and risk. More risk-averse households are less likely to move, while less risk-averse households will seek out opportunities and migrate. We investigate how the theoretical contributions of prospect theory, and specifically the endowment effect, can provide new understanding about decisions whether to migrate or not. We test the hypothesis that risk aversion extends the length of stay in the dwelling and, by extension, in the local labor and housing markets. How long people remain in place is a function, we hypothesize, of their independently self-assessed propensity to take risks, after controlling for a range of demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. We use the theoretical insights of prospect theory and the endowment effect (the notion of the "use value" differing from the "exchange value") to explain the likelihood of staying after controlling for life-course events. The results confirm the explanatory power of self-assessed risk in the decision to migrate or stay and, equally important, confirm the role of the endowment effect.
Yang, Fan; Gao, Pengju; Li, Dong; Ma, Hanwen; Cheng, Guoliang
In order to solve the problem of shortage of water resources in northern Shaanxi, we selected rectangular large loop source transient electromagnetic method with high water affinity, and radioactive α measurement method which can delineate the water storage structure, comprehensive geophysical prospecting methods to look for groundwater. Algorithm has established a forward model, and compared all-time apparent resistivity in late-time apparent resistivity is better than late. We can find out the exact location of the groundwater and thus improving wells rate by comparatively using these two kinds of geophysical prospecting method. Hydrogeology drilling confirmed water inflow of a single well can be up to 40 m 3/h, it can fully cover native Domestic and Agricultural water, and provide an important basis for groundwater exploration.
Zhang, Na; Fang, Zhigeng; Liu, Xiaqing
This paper puts forward a grey situation group decision-making method on the basis of prospect theory, in view of the grey situation group decision-making problems that decisions are often made by multiple decision experts and those experts have risk preferences. The method takes the positive and negative ideal situation distance as reference points, defines positive and negative prospect value function, and introduces decision experts' risk preference into grey situation decision-making to make the final decision be more in line with decision experts' psychological behavior. Based on TOPSIS method, this paper determines the weight of each decision expert, sets up comprehensive prospect value matrix for decision experts' evaluation, and finally determines the optimal situation. At last, this paper verifies the effectiveness and feasibility of the method by means of a specific example.
Exploration for uranium in the Himalaya over the last thirty years has brought to light five distinct types of mineralisation, namely, vein-type, hydrothermal shear controlled-type, disseminated-type, syngenetic-type, and sandstone-type. The first three are associated with lower to middle proterozoic metasedimentary rocks, metabasic rocks, and granitoids of the lesser Himalaya in close proximity to the main central thrust (MCT). The carbonaceous slates of Haimanta group (late proterozoic to eocambrian) and the Mussoorie phosphorites (eocambrian) represent the syngenetic types. The sandstone-type is associated with the late tertiary Siwaliks of the northwestern Himalaya. The constraints in geology and uranium exploration in the Himalaya have been briefly discussed and principal uranium occurrences in relation to their tectonic environment and genesis listed. The need for geochemical characterization of the Himalayan granitoids and the metabasics related to known uranium mineralisation and new areas have been suggested. Integrated application of radiometric, geochemical and geophysical methods of prospecting and remote sensing techniques in regional geological correlation, identification of subtle rock alterations associated with mineralized zones, geologic structures, and deep crustal lineaments have been advocated. A case for the exploration of the areas of lesser Himalaya outside the MCT has been made out so as to locate hitherto unknown types of uranium deposits including, strata bound, metamorphic, and intra granitic types, possibly with better depth persistence. (author). 57 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs
This study was conducted with undergraduate students at a large university to investigate the association between environmental identity, pro-environmental behaviors and environmental decision-making. This study explored how environmental identity as defined by Clayton (2003) influenced the type of pro-environmental behaviors individuals choose to participate in. Environmental decision-making based on Kahneman's (2003, 2011) System 1 and System 2 framework was also assessed in association with environmental identity. A survey including the Environmental Identity Survey (Clayton, 2003), the Environmentally Responsible Behaviors Index (Smith-Sebasto & D'Acosta, 1995), and a Decision Making Questionnaire were administered. After administering the surveys, eight participants were chosen for a 60-minute interview. The quantitative results of the study showed there was a significant relationship between environmental identity and participating in environmental behaviors more often. There was also a significant relation between environmental identity and making the decision to recycle in a fast and automatic way. The interview results showed that participants with both a strong and a weak environmental identity recycled often and thought it was a fast decision. The results of this study show that certain components of environmental identity are important, but other factors like the physical environment and social norms influence the thinking that goes into recycling more than environmental identity alone. This study provides evidence of the importance of social norms and environmental structures in fostering pro-environmental behaviors and influencing the type of thinking that goes into making environmental decisions. Keywords: environmental identity, environmental behaviors, System 1, System 2, recycling.
Duignan, Sophie; Ryan, Aedin; O'Keeffe, Dara; Kenny, Damien; McMahon, Colin J
The complexity and potential biases involved in decision making have long been recognised and examined in both the aviation and business industries. More recently, the medical community have started to explore this concept and its particular importance in our field. Paediatric cardiology is a rapidly expanding field and for many of the conditions we treat, there is limited evidence available to support our decision-making. Variability exists within decision-making in paediatric cardiology and this may influence outcomes. There are no validated tools available to support and examine consistent decision-making for various treatment strategies in children with congenital heart disease in a multidisciplinary cardiology and cardiothoracic institution. Our primary objective was to analyse the complexity of decision-making for children with cardiac conditions in the context of our joint cardiology and cardiothoracic conference (JCC). Two paediatric cardiologists acted as investigators by observing the weekly joint cardiology-cardiothoracic surgery conference and prospectively evaluating the degree of complexity of decision-making in the management of 107 sequential children with congenital heart disease discussed. Additionally, the group consensus on the same patients was prospectively assessed to compare this to the independent observers. Of 107 consecutive children discussed at our JCC conference 32 (27%) went on to receive surgical intervention, 20 (17%) underwent catheterisation and 65 (56%) received medical treatment. There were 53 (50%) cases rated as simple by one senior observer, while 54 (50%) were rated as complex to some degree. There was high inter-observer agreement with a Krippendorff's alpha of ≥ 0.8 between 2 observers and between 2 observers and the group consensus as a whole for grading of the complexity of decision-making. Different decisions were occasionally made on patients with the same data set. Discussions revisiting the same patient, in
Wakker, P.P.; Chateauneuf, A.
Cumulative prospect theory was introduced by Tversky and Kahneman so as to combine the empirical realism of their original prospect theory with the theoretical advantages of Quiggin's rank-dependent utility. Preference axiomatizations were provided in several papers. All those axiomatizations,
Trepel, Christopher; Fox, Craig R; Poldrack, Russell A
Most decisions must be made without advance knowledge of their consequences. Economists and psychologists have devoted much attention to modeling decisions made under conditions of risk in which options can be characterized by a known probability distribution over possible outcomes. The descriptive shortcomings of classical economic models motivated the development of prospect theory (D. Kahneman, A. Tversky, Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 4 (1979) 263-291; A. Tversky, D. Kahneman, Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 5 (4) (1992) 297-323) the most successful behavioral model of decision under risk. In the prospect theory, subjective value is modeled by a value function that is concave for gains, convex for losses, and steeper for losses than for gains; the impact of probabilities are characterized by a weighting function that overweights low probabilities and underweights moderate to high probabilities. We outline the possible neural bases of the components of prospect theory, surveying evidence from human imaging, lesion, and neuropharmacology studies as well as animal neurophysiology studies. These results provide preliminary suggestions concerning the neural bases of prospect theory that include a broad set of brain regions and neuromodulatory systems. These data suggest that focused studies of decision making in the context of quantitative models may provide substantial leverage towards a fuller understanding of the cognitive neuroscience of decision making.
Goudriaan, Anna E.; Grekin, Emily R.; Sher, Kenneth J.
Very few studies have investigated the "real world" prospective, predictive value of behavioral instruments used in laboratory studies to test decision-making abilities or impulse control. The current study examines the degree to which 2 commonly used decision-making/impulse control measures
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prior research into metrics and design for autonomy were presented. At this time, the prospect of adding significant autonomous decision-making on a piloted aircraft...
Groth, Randall E.; Bergner, Jennifer A.; Burgess, Claudia R.
The present study followed four prospective teachers through the process of learning to interview during an undergraduate research project experience. Participants conducted and video recorded a series of interviews with children. They also carried out guided analyses of the videos and written artefacts from the interviews to formulate conjectures…
Pitts Bannister, Vanessa R.; Mariano, Gina J.
The purpose of this article is to explore the relationships between prospective teachers' content knowledge, student understanding, and pedagogy using video cases. The emphasis was on the extent to which the participants utilized constructs of Technology Pedagogy And Content Knowledge. Ten prospective teachers viewed video cases of students…
Full Text Available into an objective function in simulated annealing in order to derive a set of optimal exploration focal points. Each optimal exploration focal point represents a pixel or location within a circular neighborhood of pixels with high posterior probability of mineral...
Ren, Peijia; Xu, Zeshui; Hao, Zhinan
Due to the timeliness of emergency response and much unknown information in emergency situations, this paper proposes a method to deal with the emergency decision making, which can comprehensively reflect the emergency decision making process. By utilizing the hesitant fuzzy elements to represent the fuzziness of the objects and the hesitant thought of the experts, this paper introduces the negative exponential function into the prospect theory so as to portray the psychological behaviors of the experts, which transforms the hesitant fuzzy decision matrix into the hesitant fuzzy prospect decision matrix (HFPDM) according to the expectation-levels. Then, this paper applies the energy and the entropy in thermodynamics to take the quantity and the quality of the decision values into account, and defines the thermodynamic decision making parameters based on the HFPDM. Accordingly, a whole procedure for emergency decision making is conducted. What is more, some experiments are designed to demonstrate and improve the validation of the emergency decision making procedure. Last but not the least, this paper makes a case study about the emergency decision making in the firing and exploding at Port Group in Tianjin Binhai New Area, which manifests the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed method.
Trautmann, Stefan T; van de Kuilen, Gijs
Attitudes toward risks are central to organizational decisions. These attitudes are commonly modeled by prospect theory. Construal level theory has been proposed as an alternative theory of risky choice, accounting for psychological distance deriving from temporal, spatial and social aspects of risk that are typical of agency situations. Unnoticed in the literature, the two theories make contradicting predictions. The current study investigates which theory provides a better description of risky decisions in the presence of temporal, spatial, and social factors. We find that the psychophysical effects modeled by prospect theory dominate the psychological distance effects of construal level theory. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Mental health (MH) triage is a specialist area of clinical nursing practice that involves complex decision making. The discussion in this article draws on the findings of a Ph.D. study that involved a statewide investigation of the scope of MH triage nursing practice in Victoria, Australia. Although the original Ph.D. study investigated a number of core practices in MH triage, the focus of the discussion in this article is specifically on the findings related to clinical decision making in MH triage, which have not previously been published. The study employed an exploratory descriptive research design that used mixed data collection methods including a survey questionnaire (n = 139) and semistructured interviews (n = 21). The study findings related to decision making revealed a lack of empirically tested evidence-based decision-making frameworks currently in use to support MH triage nursing practice. MH triage clinicians in Australia rely heavily on clinical experience to underpin decision making and have little of knowledge of theoretical models for practice, such as methodologies for rating urgency. A key recommendation arising from the study is the need to develop evidence-based decision-making frameworks such as clinical guidelines to inform and support MH triage clinical decision making.
Bosman, R.A.J.; Hennig-Schmidt, H.; van Winden, F.A.A.M.
Most studies that compare individual and group behavior neglect the in-group decision making process. This paper explores the decision making process within groups in a strategic setting: a two player power-to-take experiment. Discussions preceding group decisions are video taped and analyzed. We
Clark, P. E.; Rilee, M. L.; Curtis, S. A.
ANTS (Autonomous Nano-Technology Swarm), a large (1000 member) swarm of nano to picoclass (10 to 1 kg) totally autonomous spacecraft, are being developed as a NASA advanced mission concept. ANTS, based on a hierarchical insect social order, use an evolvable, self-similar, hierarchical neural system in which individual spacecraft represent the highest level nodes. ANTS uses swarm intelligence attained through collective, cooperative interactions of the nodes at all levels of the system. At the highest levels this can take the form of cooperative, collective behavior among the individual spacecraft in a very large constellation. The ANTS neural architecture is designed for totally autonomous operation of complex systems including spacecraft constellations. The ANTS (Autonomous Nano Technology Swarm) concept has a number of possible applications. A version of ANTS designed for surveying and determining the resource potential of the asteroid belt, called PAM (Prospecting ANTS Mission), is examined here.
Trautmann, S.T.; van de Kuilen, G.
Attitudes toward risks are central to organizational decisions. These attitudes are commonly modeled by prospect theory. Construal level theory has been proposed as an alternative theory of risky choice, accounting for psychological distance deriving from temporal, spatial and social aspects of risk
Dowlatabadi, H.; Kandlikar, M.; Linville, C.
A critical aspect of climate change decision-making is uncertainties in current understanding of the socioeconomic, climatic and biogeochemical processes involved. Decision-making processes are much better informed if these uncertainties are characterized and their implications understood. Quantitative analysis of these uncertainties serve to inform decision makers about the likely outcome of policy initiatives, and help set priorities for research so that outcome ambiguities faced by the decision-makers are reduced. A family of integrated assessment models of climate change have been developed at Carnegie Mellon. These models are distinguished from other integrated assessment efforts in that they were designed from the outset to characterize and propagate parameter, model, value, and decision-rule uncertainties. The most recent of these models is ICAM 2.1. This model includes representation of the processes of demographics, economic activity, emissions, atmospheric chemistry, climate and sea level change and impacts from these changes and policies for emissions mitigation, and adaptation to change. The model has over 800 objects of which about one half are used to represent uncertainty. In this paper we show, that when considering parameter uncertainties, the relative contribution of climatic uncertainties are most important, followed by uncertainties in damage calculations, economic uncertainties and direct aerosol forcing uncertainties. When considering model structure uncertainties we find that the choice of policy is often dominated by model structure choice, rather than parameter uncertainties.
German technical cooperation has taken the initiative to support partner countries in geothermal energy use. Therefore the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) on behalf of the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) is carrying out the technical cooperation programme GEOTHERM. As an example of the ongoing project activities, preliminary results of studies carried out in the Virunga geothermal prospect in Northern Rwanda will be presented. The study area is located along the Western branch of the East African Rift System. Weak geothermal surface manifestations, e.g. hot springs and bubbling pools, indicate an existing hydrothermal system. Previous studies did not determine location, distribution, quality and quantity of the heat source. Consequently the aim of this study is to detect and assess the heat source with a multi method approach. Remote sensing techniques, geochemical analyses and geophysical measurements have been applied to make a first serious attempt. More detailed geophysical investigations and gas measurements are planned to start in spring 2009. Aerial photographs and satellite images were used for a high-resolution structural analysis to determine major fault zones, which are dominating the flow paths of hydrothermal fluids. In the frame of a regional geophysical survey (Magnetotellurics and Transient Electromagnetics) a zone of low resistivity values could be detected SW of the Karisimbi stratovolcano, which is corresponding with the results of the geochemical analyses. Assumptions are made that a magmatic body may exist in a depth of 5 km below surface.
Johnson, Theresa L.
High-stakes standardized tests in reading and limited instructional time are two powerful disincentives for teaching economics in the elementary classroom. In this article, integrating instruction in poetry and economic decision-making is presented as one way to maximize the use of scarce instructional time. Following a brief introduction to the…
Nixon, Michael Simon; Vendelø, Morten Thanning
Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to investigate how general practitioners' (GPs) decisions about discontinuation of medication are influenced by their institutional context. Design/methodology/approach - In total, 24 GPs were interviewed, three practices were observed and documents were collected. The Gioia methodology was used to analyse data, drawing on a theoretical framework that integrate the sensemaking perspective and institutional theory. Findings - Most GPs, who actively consider discontinuation, are reluctant to discontinue medication, because the safest course of action for GPs is to continue prescriptions, rather than discontinue them. The authors conclude that this is in part due to the ambiguity about the appropriateness of discontinuing medication, experienced by the GPs, and in part because the clinical guidelines do not encourage discontinuation of medication, as they offer GPs a weak frame for discontinuation. Three reasons for this are identified: the guidelines provide dominating triggers for prescribing, they provide weak priming for discontinuation as an option, and they underscore a cognitive constraint against discontinuation. Originality/value - The analysis offers new insights about decision making when discontinuing medication. It also offers one of the first examinations of how the institutional context embedding GPs influences their decisions about discontinuation. For policymakers interested in the discontinuation of medication, the findings suggest that de-stigmatising discontinuation on an institutional level may be beneficial, allowing GPs to better justify discontinuation in light of the ambiguity they experience.
Sharpton, Virgil L.
It has been 15 years since an iridium-enriched clay layer at the Cretaceous-Tertiary (KT) boundary was discovered, providing the first hard evidence linking the most recent mass extinction event to a comet or asteroid strike [Alvarez et al., 1980]. Now it is widely accepted that the site of this collision is on the Yucatan platform, centered near Progreso, Mexico. The 200-300-km-wide crater lies buried beneath 300-1000 m of limestone laid down in the intervening 65 million years, and few clues of its presence remain at the surface, save an arcuate arrangement of water-filled sinkholes centered approximately on the structure (Figure 1). Yet prominent circular anomalies in gravity and magnetic anomaly maps gained the interest of Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex), and in the early 1950s they began an exploration campaign that included deep drilling to recover samples of the subsurface rocks. The buried feature became known as the Chicxulub structure. Pemex drilling continued throughout the early 1970s and by that time, three wells near the center had recovered silicate rocks with igneous textures, initially mistaken for volcanic rocks. Other wells, located between 130 km and 210 km from ground zero recovered breccia deposits hundreds of meters thick that showed evidence of catastropic or explosive conditions. By 1980, Antonio Camargo, a geophysicist at Pemex, felt the evidence pointed to impact, although a volcanic origin for the Chicxulub structure could not be ruled out.
Tamlyn Eslie Roman
Full Text Available Background The concept of decision space holds appeal as an approach to disaggregating the elements that may influence decision-making in decentralized systems. This narrative review aims to explore the functioning of decision space and the factors that influence decision space. Methods A narrative review of the literature was conducted with searches of online databases and academic journals including PubMed Central, Emerald, Wiley, Science Direct, JSTOR, and Sage. The articles were included in the review based on the criteria that they provided insight into the functioning of decision space either through the explicit application of or reference to decision space, or implicitly through discussion of decision-making related to organizational capacity or accountability mechanisms. Results The articles included in the review encompass literature related to decentralisation, management and decision space. The majority of the studies utilise qualitative methodologies to assess accountability mechanisms, organisational capacities such as finance, human resources and management, and the extent of decision space. Of the 138 articles retrieved, 76 articles were included in the final review. Conclusion The literature supports Bossert’s conceptualization of decision space as being related to organizational capacities and accountability mechanisms. These functions influence the decision space available within decentralized systems. The exact relationship between decision space and financial and human resource capacities needs to be explored in greater detail to determine the potential influence on system functioning.
Full Text Available Abstract Background Shared decision making (SDM, a process by which health professionals and patients go through the decision-making process together to agree on treatment, is a promising strategy for promoting diet-related decisions that are informed and value based and to which patients adhere well. The objective of the present study was to identify dietitians' salient beliefs regarding their exercise of two behaviors during the clinical encounter, both of which have been deemed essential for SDM to take place: (1 presenting patients with all dietary treatment options for a given health condition and (2 helping patients clarify their values and preferences regarding the options. Methods Twenty-one dietitians were allocated to four focus groups. Facilitators conducted the focus groups using a semistructured interview guide based on the Theory of Planned Behavior. Discussions were audiotaped, transcribed verbatim, coded, and analyzed with NVivo8 (QSR International, Cambridge, MA software. Results Most participants stated that better patient adherence to treatment was an advantage of adopting the two SDM behaviors. Dietitians identified patients, physicians, and the multidisciplinary team as normative referents who would approve or disapprove of their adoption of the SDM behaviors. The most often reported barriers and facilitators for the behaviors concerned patients' characteristics, patients' clinical situation, and time. Conclusions The implementation of SDM in nutrition clinical practice can be guided by addressing dietitians' salient beliefs. Identifying these beliefs also provides the theoretical framework needed for developing a quantitative survey questionnaire to further study the determinants of dietitians' adoption of SDM behaviors.
Søndergaard, Helle Alsted; Jespersen, Kristina Risom
process. Respondents with a prospector strategy use DC to a higher degree than analysers and respondents with the highest level of innovativeness use soft DC to a higher degree compared to those with low innovativeness who use financial criteria at all gates. The relationship between strategy and newness......Our major objective is to investigate the link between strategy and decision criteria (DC). An exploratory study was conducted by means of questionnaire-data and in-depth interviews with respondents involved in NPD. Results show extensive use of strategic DC, primarily early in the development...
Explores issues related to "right to die." Makes case for counselors to assist clients and families with concerns related to refusal or withdrawal of medical treatment in cases of terminal illness or in cases where quality of life is severely impaired such as permanent comatose state. Presents historical, ethical, and legal perspectives.…
Currier, Charles W.
This qualitative case study explores the process community college senior administrators employ when assessing the complex strategic decision to confer community college baccalaureate degrees. Strategic opportunities, such as conferring baccalaureate degrees, occur infrequently thus community college leaders must be prepared to act quickly and…
Rukiye Didem Taylan
Full Text Available This study investigated prospective mathematics teachers’ reflections on the experience of designing and conducting one-to-one clinical interviews with middle school students in the context of an elective course on use of video in teacher learning. Prospective teachers were asked to write about weaknesses and strengths in student understanding as well as their own performance as an interviewer in terms of asking questions and responding to student thinking in their reflections on conducting clinical interviews. Furthermore, prospective teachers were also asked to reflect on what they would do differently in order to conduct better clinical interviews. Nature of prospective teachers’ reflections were analyzed by using existing frameworks (through constructs of reflection-on-action and reflection-for-action and by using thematic analysis. Results of data analyses revealed that prospective teachers had more difficulties in providing meaningful reflection-for-action which was related to alternative decisions and planning for future similar interviews. Thematic analysis results revealed prospective teachers’ learning were grouped under three categories: conducting clinical interviews as part of being a teacher, complexity of conducting clinical interviews, and personal theories about middle school students. There are implications for both teacher learning and research.
Jan Albert van den Berg
Full Text Available In a digital world, it seems as if the boundaries between rich and poor are becoming increasingly blurred. A mobinomic world is created through the use of cellular telephones, which plays an important role on multiple levels of socioeconomic understanding. Various advantages are created through the interplay between the power of mobility and the convergence of various forms of media. Considering the immediate accessibility of an overflow of data in various forms as well as time pressure, decision-making is increasingly becoming associated with living in the fast lane of the digital world. Unfortunately, the cost of faster decision-making is that it could potentially result in individuals making poor decisions on various levels. A practical-theological exploration, as embedded in a transversal rational engagement, entails a preliminary investigation and description of this digital reality, especially as portrayed in the dynamics of decision-making associated with the social media platform Twitter.
Kirchner, G.; Tan, B.H.
This lecture gives a survey of the methods employed by the Uranerzbergbau-GmbH and Co. KG and the experience gained in connection with prospecting and exploration activities at the uranium deposits in Saskatchewan, illustrated by the case history Key Lake. (orig.) [de
Dazhong Dong; Yuman Wang; Xinjing Li; Caineng Zou; Quanzhong Guan; Chenchen Zhang; Jinliang Huang; Shufang Wang; Hongyan Wang; Honglin Liu; Wenhua Bai; Feng Liang; Wen Lin; Qun Zhao; Dexun Liu
In the past five years, shale gas exploration and development has grown in a leaping-forward way in China. Following USA and Canada, China is now the third country where industrial shale gas production is realized, with the cumulative production exceeding 60 × 108 m3 until the end of 2015. In this paper, the main achievements of shale gas exploration and development in China in recent years were reviewed and the future development prospect was analyzed. It is pointed out that shale gas explor...
Harris, Richard; Reynolds, Rosemary
This paper explores teachers' decision making by examining the topics that 11 history teachers from 10 schools in England chose to teach and how they approached teaching these topics. Data were gathered from curriculum documents and semi-structured interviews in which teachers' topic choices and approaches to history were explored. Most teachers…
Full Text Available According to the case-based reasoning method and prospect theory, this paper mainly focuses on finding a way to obtain decision-makers’ preferences and the criterion weights for stochastic multicriteria decision-making problems and classify alternatives. Firstly, we construct a new score function for an intuitionistic fuzzy number (IFN considering the decision-making environment. Then, we aggregate the decision-making information in different natural states according to the prospect theory and test decision-making matrices. A mathematical programming model based on a case-based reasoning method is presented to obtain the criterion weights. Moreover, in the original decision-making problem, we integrate all the intuitionistic fuzzy decision-making matrices into an expectation matrix using the expected utility theory and classify or rank the alternatives by the case-based reasoning method. Finally, two illustrative examples are provided to illustrate the implementation process and applicability of the developed method.
Roman, Tamlyn Eslie; Cleary, Susan; McIntyre, Diane
The concept of decision space holds appeal as an approach to disaggregating the elements that may influence decision-making in decentralized systems. This narrative review aims to explore the functioning of decision space and the factors that influence decision space. A narrative review of the literature was conducted with searches of online databases and academic journals including PubMed Central, Emerald, Wiley, Science Direct, JSTOR, and Sage. The articles were included in the review based on the criteria that they provided insight into the functioning of decision space either through the explicit application of or reference to decision space, or implicitly through discussion of decision-making related to organizational capacity or accountability mechanisms. The articles included in the review encompass literature related to decentralisation, management and decision space. The majority of the studies utilise qualitative methodologies to assess accountability mechanisms, organisational capacities such as finance, human resources and management, and the extent of decision space. Of the 138 articles retrieved, 76 articles were included in the final review. The literature supports Bossert's conceptualization of decision space as being related to organizational capacities and accountability mechanisms. These functions influence the decision space available within decentralized systems. The exact relationship between decision space and financial and human resource capacities needs to be explored in greater detail to determine the potential influence on system functioning. © 2017 The Author(s); Published by Kerman University of Medical Sciences. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Toscani, F.; Steen, J.T. van der; Finetti, S.; Giunco, F.; Pettenati, F.; Villani, D.; Monti, M.; Gentile, S.; Charrier, L.; Giulio, P. Di
OBJECTIVE: To describe and compare the decisions critical for survival or quality of life [critical decisions (CDs)] made for patients with advanced dementia in nursing homes (NHs) and home care (HC) services. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study with a follow-up of 6 months. SETTING: Lombardy Region
Ramachandran, R.; Rushing, J.; Lin, A.; Kuo, K.
Due to advances in sensors, computation and storage, cost and effort required to produce large datasets have been significantly reduced. As a result, we are seeing a proliferation of large-scale data sets being assembled in almost every science field, especially in geosciences. Opportunities to exploit the "big data" are enormous as new hypotheses can be generated by combining and analyzing large amounts of data. However, such a data-driven approach to science discovery assumes that scientists can find and isolate relevant subsets from vast amounts of available data. Current Earth Science data systems only provide data discovery through simple metadata and keyword-based searches and are not designed to support data exploration capabilities based on the actual content. Consequently, scientists often find themselves downloading large volumes of data, struggling with large amounts of storage and learning new analysis technologies that will help them separate the wheat from the chaff. New mechanisms of data exploration are needed to help scientists discover the relevant subsets We present data prospecting, a new content-based data analysis paradigm to support data-intensive science. Data prospecting allows the researchers to explore big data in determining and isolating data subsets for further analysis. This is akin to geo-prospecting in which mineral sites of interest are determined over the landscape through screening methods. The resulting "data prospects" only provide an interaction with and feel for the data through first-look analytics; the researchers would still have to download the relevant datasets and analyze them deeply using their favorite analytical tools to determine if the datasets will yield new hypotheses. Data prospecting combines two traditional categories of data analysis, data exploration and data mining within the discovery step. Data exploration utilizes manual/interactive methods for data analysis such as standard statistical analysis and
Young, Diana L.; Goodie, Adam S.; Hall, Daniel B.; Wu, Eric
The current research examines the effects of time pressure on decision behavior based on a prospect theory framework. In Experiments 1 and 2, participants estimated certainty equivalents for binary gains-only bets in the presence or absence of time pressure. In Experiment 3, participants assessed comparable bets that were framed as losses. Data were modeled to establish psychological mechanisms underlying decision behavior. In Experiments 1 and 2, time pressure led to increased risk attractiveness, but no significant differences emerged in either probability discriminability or outcome utility. In Experiment 3, time pressure reduced probability discriminability, which was coupled with severe risk-seeking behavior for both conditions in the domain of losses. No significant effects of control over outcomes were observed. Results provide qualified support for theories that suggest increased risk-seeking for gains under time pressure. PMID:22711977
Young, Diana L; Goodie, Adam S; Hall, Daniel B; Wu, Eric
The current research examines the effects of time pressure on decision behavior based on a prospect theory framework. In Experiments 1 and 2, participants estimated certainty equivalents for binary gains-only bets in the presence or absence of time pressure. In Experiment 3, participants assessed comparable bets that were framed as losses. Data were modeled to establish psychological mechanisms underlying decision behavior. In Experiments 1 and 2, time pressure led to increased risk attractiveness, but no significant differences emerged in either probability discriminability or outcome utility. In Experiment 3, time pressure reduced probability discriminability, which was coupled with severe risk-seeking behavior for both conditions in the domain of losses. No significant effects of control over outcomes were observed. Results provide qualified support for theories that suggest increased risk-seeking for gains under time pressure.
Djalil, A; Sutriyono, A; Sajiyo
Exploration of uranium in simpang kanan, east aceh, preliminary prospecting stages. The research has been carried out to obtain the knowledge of geology, radiometry and geochemistry in relation with U prospect development. Based on the similarity of lithology in takengon sector which indicates the existence of uranium mineralization. Research method consist of geological observation, radiometric measurements of outcrops, boulders and stream sediment and heavy mineral samples. Laboratory analysis consist of petrography, autoradiography and uranium content analysis of stream sediment and rock samples. The lithology consist of slate, quartzite, marble, granite, dacite, limestone, carbonaceous sandstone, black claystone, sandstone, siltstone, carbonaceous siltstone. This area found, has been folded with the folding axis direction of NW-SE. Fault structures are generally formed as strike slip fault and several location as normal fault and heavy minerals anomalous was interpreted from granite and sandstone- siltstone. Occurrences of the geochemical anomaly, lithology and geological structures, there has been shown that few location is being the prospect area covered about 70 km of 1800km prospecting area, so it is suggested that in those related prospect area should be performed further observation
Sharifi, Fereydoun; Arab-Amiri, Ali Reza; Kamkar-Rouhani, Abolghasem; Yousefi, Mahyar; Davoodabadi-Farahani, Meysam
The purpose of this study is water prospectivity modeling (WPM) for recognizing karstic water-bearing zones by using analyses of geo-exploration data in Kal-Qorno valley, located in Tepal area, north of Iran. For this, a sequential exploration method applied on geo-evidential data to delineate target areas for further exploration. In this regard, two major exploration phases including regional and local scales were performed. In the first phase, indicator geological features, structures and lithological units, were used to model groundwater prospectivity as a regional scale. In this phase, for karstic WPM, fuzzy lithological and structural evidence layers were generated and combined using fuzzy operators. After generating target areas using WPM, in the second phase geophysical surveys including gravimetry and geoelectrical resistivity were carried out on the recognized high potential zones as a local scale exploration. Finally the results of geophysical analyses in the second phase were used to select suitable drilling locations to access and extract karstic groundwater in the study area.
Bolognani, Denise; Verzobio, Andrea; Tonelli, Daniel; Cappello, Carlo; Glisic, Branko; Zonta, Daniele
Decision making investigates choices that have uncertain consequences and that cannot be completely predicted. Rational behavior may be described by the so-called expected utility theory (EUT), whose aim is to help choosing among several solutions to maximize the expectation of the consequences. However, Kahneman and Tversky developed an alternative model, called prospect theory (PT), showing that the basic axioms of EUT are violated in several instances. In respect of EUT, PT takes into account irrational behaviors and heuristic biases. It suggests an alternative approach, in which probabilities are replaced by decision weights, which are strictly related to the decision maker's preferences and may change for different individuals. In particular, people underestimate the utility of uncertain scenarios compared to outcomes obtained with certainty, and show inconsistent preferences when the same choice is presented in different forms. The goal of this paper is precisely to analyze a real case study involving a decision problem regarding the Streicker Bridge, a pedestrian bridge on Princeton University campus. By modelling the manager of the bridge with the EUT first, and with PT later, we want to verify the differences between the two approaches and to investigate how the two models are sensitive to unpacking probabilities, which represent a common cognitive bias in irrational behaviors.
Sankararaman, Shankar; Teubert, Christopher
This paper investigates propsective architectures for decision-making in unmanned aerial systems. When these unmanned vehicles operate in urban environments, there are several sources of uncertainty that affect their behavior, and decision-making algorithms need to be robust to account for these different sources of uncertainty. It is important to account for several risk-factors that affect the flight of these unmanned systems, and facilitate decision-making by taking into consideration these various risk-factors. In addition, there are several technical challenges related to autonomous flight of unmanned aerial systems; these challenges include sensing, obstacle detection, path planning and navigation, trajectory generation and selection, etc. Many of these activities require significant computational power and in many situations, all of these activities need to be performed in real-time. In order to efficiently integrate these activities, it is important to develop a systematic architecture that can facilitate real-time decision-making. Four prospective architectures are discussed in this paper; on one end of the spectrum, the first architecture considers all activities/computations being performed onboard the vehicle whereas on the other end of the spectrum, the fourth and final architecture considers all activities/computations being performed in the cloud, using a new service known as Prognostics as a Service that is being developed at NASA Ames Research Center. The four different architectures are compared, their advantages and disadvantages are explained and conclusions are presented.
Coulehan, Kelly; Byrd, Desiree; Arentoft, Alyssa; Monzones, Jennifer; Fuentes, Armando; Fraser, Felicia; Rosario, Ana; Morgello, Susan; Mindt, Monica Rivera
Prospective memory (ProM), a form of episodic memory related to execution of future intentions, is important for everyday functioning. Among persons living with HIV (PLWH), executive dysfunction is implicated in ProM impairments. However, specific subcomponents of executive functioning involved in ProM deficits remain poorly understood. Unlike more "traditional" neurocognitive (NC) measures of executive functioning associated with dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (i.e., conceptual reasoning, abstraction), those associated with medial orbitofrontal/ventromedial prefrontal (mOF/vmP) cortex (i.e., decision making, inhibitory control, goal-oriented behavior) have yet to be examined in ProM. This study characterized ProM ability in a sample of 89 HIV-seropositive adults and examined the unique role of decision-making ability in ProM. Participants completed a standard NC battery, the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT; a decision-making measure), and the Memory for Intentions Screening Test (MIST; a ProM measure). Correlational analyses revealed that both traditional executive functioning measures and the IGT were associated with ProM. Regression analyses revealed that the IGT significantly predicted ProM, even after accounting for NC measures. Among all NC measures, only executive functioning significantly contributed to ProM. Further examination of mOF/vmP-sensitive executive dysfunction within this population is needed as PLWH may require more tailored treatment recommendations due to specific decision-making difficulties that can impact medication management.
Millroth, Philip; Guath, Mona; Juslin, Peter
The rationality of decision making under risk is of central concern in psychology and other behavioral sciences. In real-life, the information relevant to a decision often arrives sequentially or changes over time, implying nontrivial demands on memory. Yet, little is known about how this affects the ability to make rational decisions and a default assumption is rather that information about outcomes and probabilities are simultaneously available at the time of the decision. In 4 experiments, we show that participants receiving probability- and outcome information sequentially report substantially (29 to 83%) higher certainty equivalents than participants with simultaneous presentation. This holds also for monetary-incentivized participants with perfect recall of the information. Participants in the sequential conditions often violate stochastic dominance in the sense that they pay more for a lottery with low probability of an outcome than participants in the simultaneous condition pay for a high probability of the same outcome. Computational modeling demonstrates that Cumulative Prospect Theory (Tversky & Kahneman, 1992) fails to account for the effects of sequential presentation, but a model assuming anchoring-and adjustment constrained by memory can account for the data. By implication, established assumptions of rationality may need to be reconsidered to account for the effects of memory in many real-life tasks. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).
Akar, S.; Young, K.
Geothermal exploration projects have a significant amount of risk associated with uncertainties encountered in the discovery of the geothermal resource. Two of the largest challenges for increased geothermal deployment are 1) understanding when and how to proceed in an exploration program, and 2) when to walk away from a site. Current methodologies for exploration decision-making are formulatedby subjective expert opinion which can be incorrectly biased by expertise (e.g. geochemistry, geophysics), geographic location of focus, and the assumed conceptual model. The aim of this project is to develop a methodology for more objective geothermal exploration decision making at a given location, including go/no-go decision points to help developers and investors decide when to give up on alocation. In this scope, two different approaches are investigated: 1) value of information analysis (VOIA) which is used for evaluating and quantifying the value of a data before they are purchased, and 2) enthalpy-based exploration targeting based on reservoir size, temperature gradient estimates, and internal rate of return (IRR). The first approach, VOIA, aims to identify the value of aparticular data when making decisions with an uncertain outcome. This approach targets the pre-drilling phase of exploration. These estimated VOIs are highly affected by the size of the project and still have a high degree of subjectivity in assignment of probabilities. The second approach, exploration targeting, is focused on decision making during the drilling phase. It starts with a basicgeothermal project definition that includes target and minimum required production capacity and initial budgeting for exploration phases. Then, it uses average temperature gradient, reservoir temperature estimates, and production capacity to define targets and go/no-go limits. The decision analysis in this approach is based on achieving a minimum IRR at each phase of the project. This secondapproach was determined
Hyde, Melissa K; White, Katherine M
To use a theory of planned behaviour (TPB) framework to explore the beliefs underlying communication of the donation decision for people who had not previously registered their consent on a donor register or discussed their decision with significant others. Initially, a focus group study elicited the common TPB (behavioural, normative, and control) beliefs about registering and discussing the organ donation decision. The main study assessed the important TPB belief predictors of intentions to register and discuss the donation decision. University students and community members from Queensland, Australia (N=123) completed items assessing their intentions and the TPB behavioural, normative, and control beliefs for registering and discussing their donation decision. Structural equation modelling (SEM) analyses revealed significant paths between people's intentions to register their donation decisions and underlying behavioural (e.g. enabling efficient donation procedures), normative (e.g. friends, doctors/medical professionals), and control (e.g. lack of motivation, knowing details about transplant recipients) beliefs (R2=.30). There were also significant paths between people's intentions to discuss their donation decision and underlying behavioural (e.g. feeling uncomfortable talking about death related topics) and normative (e.g. partner/spouse, family members) beliefs, but not control beliefs (R2=.33). There was a significant path between intentions to register and intentions to discuss one's donation decision. Results highlight the importance of focusing on behavioural and normative beliefs about communicating the donation decision, specifically for people who have not previously communicated their decision, and suggest potential targets for interventions designed to promote decision communication.
Full Text Available The Sichuan Basin, a hotspot and one of the most successful areas for shale gas exploration and development, can largely reflect and have a big say in the future prospect of shale gas in China. Through an overall review on the progress in shale gas exploration and development in the Sichuan Basin, we obtained the following findings: (1 the Sichuan Basin has experienced the marine and terrestrial depositional evolution, resulting in the deposition of three types of organic-matter-rich shales (i.e. marine, transitional, and terrestrial, and the occurrence of six sets of favorable shale gas enrichment strata (i.e. the Sinian Doushantuo Fm, the Cambrian Qiongzhusi Fm, the Ordovician Wufeng–Silurian Longmaxi Fm, the Permian Longtan Fm, the Triassic Xujiahe Fm, and the Jurassic Zhiliujing Fm; (2 the five key elements for shale gas accumulation in the Wufeng-Longmaxi Fm are deep-water shelf facies, greater thickness of organic-rich shales, moderate thermal evolution, abundant structural fractures, reservoir overpressure; and (3 the exploration and development of shale gas in this basin still confronts two major challenges, namely, uncertain sweet spots and potential prospect of shale gas, and the immature technologies in the development of shale gas resources at a depth of more than 3500 m. In conclusion, shale gas has been discovered in the Jurassic, Triassic and Cambrian, and preliminary industrial-scale gas has been produced in the Ordovician-Silurian Fm in the Sichuan Basin, indicating a promising prospect there; commercial shale gas can be produced there with an estimated annual gas output of 30–60 billion m3; and shale gas exploration and production experiences in this basin will provide valuable theoretical and technical support for commercial shale gas development in China.
Guay, Amanda; Aunos, Marjorie; Collin-Vézina, Delphine
Background: Mothers with intellectual disability are less likely than mothers without intellectual disability to breastfeed their infants, but there is little literature that addresses infant-feeding decisions among this population. This study explores experiences of mothers with intellectual disability in making and carrying out infant-feeding…
Dechang, L.; Jingke, Z.; Maorong, S.; Guojuan, W.
In this paper based on the analysis of the exploration criteria for Shengyuan Basin-a uranium ore field, the multi-data integration and information extraction of exploration criteria are carried out on computer and image processing system so that the areas with best combinations of exploration criteria are directly displayed on the screen. Six prospecting targets are selected through the field examination. Shengyuan basin in Jiangxi province is a uranium-producing, Jurassic Cretaceous volcanic-sedimentary basin with an area of about 400 sq km. Its basement consists of Sinian-Cambrian rocks with Caledonian granites intruded. Several uranium deposits, occurrences and anomalies were discovered over the basin region which, therefore, becomes a very important uranium ore field in China
Full Text Available In the past five years, shale gas exploration and development has grown in a leaping-forward way in China. Following USA and Canada, China is now the third country where industrial shale gas production is realized, with the cumulative production exceeding 60 × 108 m3 until the end of 2015. In this paper, the main achievements of shale gas exploration and development in China in recent years were reviewed and the future development prospect was analyzed. It is pointed out that shale gas exploration and development in China is, on the whole, still at its early stage. Especially, marine shale gas in the Sichuan Basin has dominated the recent exploration and development. For the realization of shale gas scale development in China, one key point lies in the breakthrough and industrial production of transitional facies and continental facies shale gas. Low–moderate yield of shale gas wells is the normal in China, so it is crucial to develop key exploration and development technologies. Especially, strictly controlling single well investment and significantly reducing cost are the important means to increase shale gas exploration and development benefits. And finally, suggestions were proposed in five aspects. First, continuously strengthen theoretical and technical researches, actively carry out appraisal on shale gas “sweet spots”, and gradually accumulate development basis. Second, stress on primary evaluation of exploration and development, highlight the effective implementation of shale gas resources, and control the rhythm of appraisal drilling and productivity construction. Third, highlight fine description and evaluation of shale gas reservoirs and increase the overall development level. Fourth, intensify the research on exploration and development technologies in order to stand out simple and practical technologies with low costs. And fifth, summarize the experiences in fast growth of shale gas exploration and development, highlight
Zhu, Zhenhong; Yao, Genshun; Lou, Zhanghua; Jin, Aimin; Zhu, Rong; Jin, Chong; Chen, Chao
Multiple sets of organic-rich shales developed in the Upper Paleozoic of the northwestern Guizhong Depression in South China. However, the exploration of these shales is presently at a relatively immature stage. The Upper Paleozoic shales in the northwestern Guizhong Depression, including the Middle Devonian Luofu shale, the Nabiao shale, and the Lower Carboniferous Yanguan shale, were investigated in this study. Mineral composition analysis, organic matter analysis (including total organic carbon (TOC) content, maceral of kerogen and the vitrinite reflection (Ro)), pore characteristic analysis (including porosity and permeability, pore type identification by SEM, and pore size distribution by nitrogen sorption), methane isothermal sorption test were conducted, and the distribution and thickness of the shales were determined, Then the characteristics of the two target shales were illustrated and compared. The results show that the Upper Paleozoic shales have favorable organic matter conditions (mainly moderate to high TOC content, type I and II1 kerogen and high to over maturity), good fracability potential (brittleness index (BI) > 40%), multiple pore types, stable distribution and effective thickness, and good methane sorption capacity. Therefore, the Upper Paleozoic shales in the northern Guizhong Depression have good shale gas potential and exploration prospects. Moreover, the average TOC content, average BI, thickness of the organic-rich shale (TOC > 2.0 wt%) and the shale gas resources of the Middle Devonian shales are better than those of the Lower Carboniferous shale. The Middle Devonian shales have better shale gas potential and exploration prospects than the Lower Carboniferous shales.
Komlev, L.V.; Anderson, E.B.
Among the geological and geochemical methods for prospecting and searching the nuclear raw material, the isotope-dating methods determine the most important search criterion - the time of the ore-forming. The elaboration and use of these methods in uranium-ore regions reveal a series of geochemical epochs of uranium and thorium accumulation connected naturally with the history of geological evolution of the earth crust. The isotope-dating methods enable with confidence to establish the stages of tectono-magmatic activity resulting in the redistribution and the local concentration of uranium. The wide use of isotopic methods is a necessary condition for reasonable trends of the modern geological exploration [ru
Pajer, Stephan; Streit, Marc; Torsney-Weir, Thomas; Spechtenhauser, Florian; Muller, Torsten; Piringer, Harald
A common strategy in Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) is to rank alternative solutions by weighted summary scores. Weights, however, are often abstract to the decision maker and can only be set by vague intuition. While previous work supports a point-wise exploration of weight spaces, we argue that MCDM can benefit from a regional and global visual analysis of weight spaces. Our main contribution is WeightLifter, a novel interactive visualization technique for weight-based MCDM that facilitates the exploration of weight spaces with up to ten criteria. Our technique enables users to better understand the sensitivity of a decision to changes of weights, to efficiently localize weight regions where a given solution ranks high, and to filter out solutions which do not rank high enough for any plausible combination of weights. We provide a comprehensive requirement analysis for weight-based MCDM and describe an interactive workflow that meets these requirements. For evaluation, we describe a usage scenario of WeightLifter in automotive engineering and report qualitative feedback from users of a deployed version as well as preliminary feedback from decision makers in multiple domains. This feedback confirms that WeightLifter increases both the efficiency of weight-based MCDM and the awareness of uncertainty in the ultimate decisions.
The author summarizes main prospecting and exploration-related geologic characteristics of paleochannel-type sandstone-hosted uranium deposits such as the structural control over the spatial emplacement of the deposit, the near-source occurrence, the phreatic oxidation origin, the occurrence of the uranium mineralization mostly in one horizon etc. On the basis of analyzing the above characteristics the prospecting and exploration policy of such uranium deposits is proposed
Kristen Meldi Plasseraud
Full Text Available Uveal melanoma management is challenging due to its metastatic propensity. DecisionDx-UM is a prospectively validated molecular test that interrogates primary tumor biology to provide objective information about metastatic potential that can be used in determining appropriate patient care. To evaluate the continued clinical validity and utility of DecisionDx-UM, beginning March 2010, 70 patients were enrolled in a prospective, multicenter, IRB-approved study to document patient management differences and clinical outcomes associated with low-risk Class 1 and high-risk Class 2 results indicated by DecisionDx-UM testing. Thirty-seven patients in the prospective study were Class 1 and 33 were Class 2. Class 1 patients had 100% 3-year metastasis-free survival compared to 63% for Class 2 (log rank test p=0.003 with 27.3 median follow-up months in this interim analysis. Class 2 patients received significantly higher-intensity monitoring and more oncology/clinical trial referrals compared to Class 1 patients (Fisher’s exact test p=2.1×10-13 and p=0.04, resp.. The results of this study provide additional, prospective evidence in an independent cohort of patients that Class 1 and Class 2 patients are managed according to the differential metastatic risk indicated by DecisionDx-UM. The trial is registered with Clinical Application of DecisionDx-UM Gene Expression Assay Results (NCT02376920.
Karasek, R; Baker, D; Marxer, F; Ahlbom, A; Theorell, T
The association between specific job characteristics and subsequent cardiovascular disease was tested using a large random sample of the male working Swedish population. The prospective development of coronary heart disease (CHD) symptoms and signs was analyzed using a multivariate logistic regression technique. Additionally, a case-controlled study was used to analyze all cardiovascular-cerebrovascular (CHD-CVD) deaths during a six-year follow-up. The indicator of CHD symptoms and signs was validated in a six-year prospective study of CHD deaths (standardized mortality ratio 5.0; p less than or equal to .001). A hectic and psychologically demanding job increases the risk of developing CHD symptoms and signs (standardized odds ratio 1.29, p less than 0.25) and premature CHD-CVD death (relative risk 4.0, p less than .01). Low decision latitude-expressed as low intellectual discretion and low personal schedule freedom-is also associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease. Low intellectual discretion predicts the development of CHD symptoms and signs (SOR 1.44, p less than .01), while low personal schedule freedom among the majority of workers with the minimum statutory education increases the risk of CHD-CVD death (RR 6.6, p less than .0002). The associations exist after controlling for age, education, smoking, and overweight.
Full Text Available The relevance of the study is due to the reducing number of prospective blocks remaining unlicensed in Eastern Siberia and the need for feasibility study of the remaining potentially attractive blocks. The aim of the study is evaluation of the resource potential and allocation of new prospective license blocks in Eastern Siberia based on geological and economic criteria. The methods and instruments used in the study. To perform the economic analysis of resources and to assess the efficiency and risks of subsoil exploration and development, the authors used the results of in-house regional geological and geophysical modelling and economic research. A feasibility study of each potential pool was conducted on the author’s automated complex GeoProfi. The authors used probabilistic analysis and the cash flow discounting method to draw up an expert forecast. The results of the study. The study covers the present state and development prospects of oil and gas fields in the Siberian Platform within the Krasnoyarsk Territory, the Irkutsk Region, and the Sakha (Yakutia Republic. The top priority petroleum zones were analysed. A feasibility study of selected areas was conducted. The income density and feasible recoverable reserves density were mapped. The critical parameters that indicate unprofitable targets were calculated. The most feasible subsoil blocks were determined based on the correlation of economic and probability parameters.
Ebrahimian, Abbasali; Seyedin, Hesam; Jamshidi-Orak, Roohangiz; Masoumi, Gholamreza
Transfer of patients in medical emergency situations is one of the most important missions of emergency medical service (EMS) staffs. So this study was performed to explore affecting factors in EMS staffs’ decision during transporting of patients in medical situations to medical facilities. The participants in this qualitative study consisted of 18 EMS staffs working in prehospital care facilities in Tehran, Iran. Data were gathered through semistructured interviews. The data were analyzed u...
Frets, P G; Verhage, F; Niermeijer, M F
An in-depth, recorded interview of 30 couples 2-3 years after genetic counseling explored the characteristics of the postcounseling decision-making process, including the role of guilt feelings towards the proband. The study concerned couples with an affected child, sib, or spouse. Results were evaluated by 2 to 4 judges. In contrast to other studies, a generally unstructured decision-making process was found whereby guilt feelings played a significant role in more than half the couples. Guilt feelings were more predominant in couples with an affected sib than in those with an affected spouse. Lack of structure did not seem to complicate the decision-making process. Therefore, authors do not advocate promotion of structuring the decision-making process. Genetic counselors might focus on understanding counselees' feelings concerning the reproductive decision. Acceptance of apparently irrational considerations is particularly important, because these feelings indicate the influence of unconscious motives. Another important aspect of supporting counselees is to understand the role played by guilt feelings toward parents or an affected sib.
Williams-Byrd, Julie; Arney, Dale C.; Hay, Jason; Reeves, John D.; Craig, Douglas
NASA is transforming human spaceflight. The Agency is shifting from an exploration-based program with human activities in low Earth orbit (LEO) and targeted robotic missions in deep space to a more sustainable and integrated pioneering approach. Through pioneering, NASA seeks to address national goals to develop the capacity for people to work, learn, operate, live, and thrive safely beyond Earth for extended periods of time. However, pioneering space involves daunting technical challenges of transportation, maintaining health, and enabling crew productivity for long durations in remote, hostile, and alien environments. Prudent investments in capability and technology developments, based on mission need, are critical for enabling a campaign of human exploration missions. There are a wide variety of capabilities and technologies that could enable these missions, so it is a major challenge for NASA's Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate (HEOMD) to make knowledgeable portfolio decisions. It is critical for this pioneering initiative that these investment decisions are informed with a prioritization process that is robust and defensible. It is NASA's role to invest in targeted technologies and capabilities that would enable exploration missions even though specific requirements have not been identified. To inform these investments decisions, NASA's HEOMD has supported a variety of analysis activities that prioritize capabilities and technologies. These activities are often based on input from subject matter experts within the NASA community who understand the technical challenges of enabling human exploration missions. This paper will review a variety of processes and methods that NASA has used to prioritize and rank capabilities and technologies applicable to human space exploration. The paper will show the similarities in the various processes and showcase instances were customer specified priorities force modifications to the process. Specifically
Full Text Available The modern marketer shows a growing interest in the research of consumer decision-making styles to understand how an individual makes his/her buying decisions in the competitive environment. This concept is important because it determines the behavioral patterns of consumers and is relevant for market segmentation. Most of the previous researchers have adapted to Consumer Style Inventory (CSI introduced by Sproles and Kendall in 1986 as a common tool for assessing the decision-making styles of customers. Though researchers have validated CSI in different cultural and social contexts, very limited studies were carried out to explore the relationship between consumer decision-making styles and their domestic brand biasness. Therefore, the present study mainly focuses on exploring the impact of consumer decision-making styles on their preference towards domestic brands in the context of the Czech Republic. The sample for this study was drawn from adult customers who live in the Brno, Zlín, and Olomouc regions in the Czech Republic. A group of students from the Bachelor’s degree programme in Management and Economics, Tomas Bata University in Zlín were selected as enumerators for data collection. Altogether 200 questionnaires were distributed and 123 completed questionnaires were taken in for final analysis. The decision- making styles were measured using Sproles and Kendall’s (1986 CSI instrument. Cronbach’s Alpha values of each construct confirmed that there is a good interring reliability associated with the data. Principle Component Analysis was employed to determine the decision-making styles of Czech customers and the one-way ANOVA was used for testing hypotheses. The findings revealed that seven decision-making styles are appeared among Czech customers and fashion consciousness, recreational orientation, impulsiveness, and price consciousness of customers show a direct relationship with the domestic brand biasness. Other styles did not
Grover, Amelia C; Skarulis, Monica; Alexander, H Richard; Pingpank, James F; Javor, Edward D; Chang, Richard; Shawker, Thomas; Gorden, Phil; Cochran, Craig; Libutti, Steven K
Preoperative imaging studies localize insulinomas in less than 50% of patients. Arteriography with calcium stimulation and venous sampling (ASVS) regionalizes greater than 90% of insulinomas but requires specialized expertise and an invasive procedure. This prospective study evaluated laparoscopic exploration with IOUS compared with the other localization procedures in patients with a sporadic insulinoma. Between March 2001 and October 2004, 14 patients (7 women and 7 men; mean age, 53) with an insulinoma were enrolled in an IRB-approved protocol. Computed tomography, magnetic resonance imaging, ultrasound scan, and arteriography with calcium stimulation and venous sampling were performed preoperatively. A surgeon, blinded to the results of the localizing studies, performed a laparoscopic exploration with intraoperative ultrasound (IOUS). At the completion of the exploration, the success of laparoscopy for localization was scored, and the tumor was resected. Twelve of 14 tumors were localized successfully before laparoscopy (noninvasive, 7 of 14; invasive, 11 of 14). Laparoscopic IOUS localized successfully 12 of 14 tumors. All lesions were resected, and all patients were cured (median follow-up, 36 months). Laparoscopic IOUS identified 86% of tumors. The authors consider laparoscopic IOUS to be equivalent to ASVS in localizing insulinomas. Further study is therefore warranted to determine the role of laparoscopy with IOUS in the localization and treatment algorithm for patients with sporadic insulinoma.
Kark, Salit; Brokovich, Eran; Mazor, Tessa; Levin, Noam
Globally, extensive marine areas important for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem functioning are undergoing exploration and extraction of oil and natural gas resources. Such operations are expanding to previously inaccessible deep waters and other frontier regions, while conservation-related legislation and planning is often lacking. Conservation challenges arising from offshore hydrocarbon development are wide-ranging. These challenges include threats to ecosystems and marine species from oil spills, negative impacts on native biodiversity from invasive species colonizing drilling infrastructure, and increased political conflicts that can delay conservation actions. With mounting offshore operations, conservationists need to urgently consider some possible opportunities that could be leveraged for conservation. Leveraging options, as part of multi-billion dollar marine hydrocarbon operations, include the use of facilities and costly equipment of the deep and ultra-deep hydrocarbon industry for deep-sea conservation research and monitoring and establishing new conservation research, practice, and monitoring funds and environmental offsetting schemes. The conservation community, including conservation scientists, should become more involved in the earliest planning and exploration phases and remain involved throughout the operations so as to influence decision making and promote continuous monitoring of biodiversity and ecosystems. A prompt response by conservation professionals to offshore oil and gas developments can mitigate impacts of future decisions and actions of the industry and governments. New environmental decision support tools can be used to explicitly incorporate the impacts of hydrocarbon operations on biodiversity into marine spatial and conservation plans and thus allow for optimum trade-offs among multiple objectives, costs, and risks. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.
van Osch, Sylvie M C; van den Hout, Wilbert B; Stiggelbout, Anne M
Attitude toward risk is an important factor determining patient preferences. Risk behavior has been shown to be strongly dependent on the perception of the outcome as either a gain or a loss. According to prospect theory, the reference point determines how an outcome is perceived. However, no theory on the location of the reference point exists, and for the health domain, there is no direct evidence for the location of the reference point. This article combines qualitative with quantitative data to provide evidence of the reference point in life-year certainty equivalent (CE) gambles and to explore the psychology behind the reference point. The authors argue that goals (aspirations) in life influence the reference point. While thinking aloud, 45 healthy respondents gave certainty equivalents for life-year CE gambles with long and short durations of survival. Contrary to suggestions from the literature, qualitative data argued that the offered certainty equivalent most frequently served as the reference point. Thus, respondents perceived life-year CE gambles as mixed. Framing of the question and goals set in life appeared to be important factors behind the psychology of the reference point. On the basis of the authors' quantitative and qualitative data, they argue that goals alter the perception of outcomes as described by prospect theory by influencing the reference point. This relationship is more apparent for the near future as opposed to the remote future, as goals are mostly set for the near future.
Voepel-Lewis, Terri; Zikmund-Fisher, Brian J; Smith, Ellen Lavoie; Zyzanski, Sarah; Tait, Alan R
Despite parents' stated desire to treat pain in their children, recent studies have critiqued their underuse of prescribed analgesics to treat pain in their children after painful procedures. Parents' analgesic preferences, including their perceived importance of providing pain relief or avoiding adverse drug effects may have important implications for their analgesic decisions, yet no studies have evaluated the influence of preferences on decisions to withhold prescribed opioids for children. We prospectively explored how parents' preferences influenced decisions to withhold prescribed opioids when faced with hypothetical dilemmas and after hospital discharge. Prospective Observational Study Design: Phase 1 included hypothetical analgesic decisions and Phase 2, real analgesic decisions after hospital discharge. Large tertiary care pediatric hospital in the Midwest of the United States. Five-hundred seven parents whose children underwent a painful surgical procedure requiring an opioid prescription were included. At baseline, parents completed surveys assessing their pain relief preference (i.e., their rated importance of pain relief relative to adverse drug event avoidance), preferred treatment thresholds (i.e., pain level at which they would give an opioid), adverse drug event understanding, and hypothetical trade-off decisions (i.e., scenarios presenting variable pain and adverse drug event symptoms in a child). After discharge, parents recorded all analgesics they gave their child as well as pain scores at the time of administration. Higher preference to provide pain relief (over avoid analgesic risk) lessened the likelihood that parents would withhold the prescribed opioid when adverse drug event symptoms were present together with high pain scores in the hypothetical scenarios. Additionally, higher preferred treatment thresholds increased the likelihood of parents withholding opioids during their hypothetical decision-making as well as at home. The strong
Usman, Juniati, Dwi; Siswono, Tatag Yuli Eko
The purpose of this research is to explore the conception of prospective students teacher that highly skilled on mathematical ability about limit function, especially in the aspects of understanding, representation, mental image and proposition. This study was conducted by a qualitative exploratory method. The subject was one of the students in the mathematics education of Syiahkuala University which being chosen according to the expected criteria.. The research instrument was divided into main and supporting instrument. The data was analyzed by reducing, presenting, interpreting and concluding. The analyzing data results obtained the subject's conception about limit function were elaborated the meaning of limit function with representation verbal, graphic, symbol, and logical explanation, expressing the limit function definition with verbal representation, graphic, table and symbol. The subject defined the correlation of limit function by imaging, revealing, and using one-sided the limit of function. They expanded the propositions by symbols, explained logically, and proved using a formal definition.
Druedahl, Louise C; Kälvemark Sporrong, Sofia
Attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) causes difficulties with hyperactivity, impulsivity and inattention. Treatment of ADHD includes both medication and non-pharmacological options. Knowledge of treatment preferences by young adults with ADHD is sparse. The objective of this study was to explore the beliefs and experiences of young adults with ADHD related to their medication treatment decisions. Data were collected in Denmark in 2016 through a focus group and individual in-depth interviews. Conventional content analysis was used. Ten young adults with ADHD (22-to 29-year-old) participated. Three major themes were identified: (1) the patient’s right to choose concerning ADHD medicine; (2) the patient’s decision of whether or not to treat ADHD with medication; and (3) factors affecting the patient’s decision on whether to take ADHD medication or not. The latter theme contained 15 factors, which were distributed across three levels: individual, between-individuals, and societal. The dominant factors were increasing quality of life and improving oneself e.g., improving social skills. For counselling at the pharmacy and by prescribers, it is important to be aware of the different factors that affect young adult patients’ decisions on whether to take ADHD medication or not. This knowledge will aid to understand reasons for non-adherence and to determine appropriate treatment for the individual patient.
Sady Darcy da Silva-Junior
Full Text Available In this study, the objective is to perform content analysis on articles of a reliable database, dealing with the prospect theory and the risks involved in the decision making process, evaluating some criteria for the theoretical and methodological approaches that allow a joint analysis and comparative. Therefore, a search in ProQuest database was performed which resulted in 15 articles that were submitted to content analysis process, based on the evaluation of nine factors identified by researchers. Among the results highlight the critical attitude to the prospect theory, in contrast to the assertion of his representative capacity of real situations and application in various situations.
Adams, Robyn; Jones, Anne; Lefmann, Sophie; Sheppard, Lorraine
Deciding what health services are provided is a key consideration in delivering appropriate and accessible health care for rural and remote populations. Despite residents of rural communities experiencing poorer health outcomes and exhibiting higher health need, workforce shortages and maldistribution mean that rural communities do not have access to the range of services available in metropolitan centres. Where demand exceeds available resources, decisions about resource allocation are required. A qualitative approach enabled the researchers to explore participant perspectives about decisions informing rural physiotherapy service provision. Stakeholder perspectives were obtained through surveys and in-depth interviews. A system theory-case study heuristic provided a framework for exploration across sites within the investigation area: a large area of one Australian state with a mix of rural, regional and remote communities. Thirty-nine surveys were received from participants in eleven communities. Nineteen in-depth interviews were conducted with physiotherapist and key decision-makers. Increasing demand, organisational priorities, fiscal austerity measures and workforce challenges were identified as factors influencing both decision-making and service provision. Rationing of physiotherapy services was common to all sites of this study. Rationing of services, more commonly expressed as service prioritisation, was more evident in responses of public sector physiotherapy participants compared to private physiotherapists. However, private physiotherapists in rural areas reported capacity limits, including expertise, space and affordability that constrained service provision. The imbalance between increasing service demands and limited physiotherapy capacity meant making choices was inevitable. Decreased community access to local physiotherapy services and increased workforce stress, a key determinant of retention, are two results of such choices or decisions
McGlinchey, Mark P; Davenport, Sally
The aim of this study was to explore the decision-making process in the delivery of physiotherapy in a stroke unit. A focused ethnographical approach involving semi-structured interviews and observations of clinical practice was used. A purposive sample of seven neurophysiotherapists and four patients participated in semi-structured interviews. From this group, three neurophysiotherapists and four patients were involved in observation of practice. Data from interviews and observations were analysed to generate themes. Three themes were identified: planning the ideal physiotherapy delivery, the reality of physiotherapy delivery and involvement in the decision-making process. Physiotherapists used a variety of clinical reasoning strategies and considered many factors to influence their decision-making in the planning and delivery of physiotherapy post-stroke. These factors included the therapist's clinical experience, patient's presentation and response to therapy, prioritisation, organisational constraints and compliance with organisational practice. All physiotherapists highlighted the importance to involve patients in planning and delivering their physiotherapy. However, there were varying levels of patient involvement observed in this process. The study has generated insight into the reality of decision-making in the planning and delivery of physiotherapy post-stroke. Further research involving other stroke units is required to gain a greater understanding of this aspect of physiotherapy. Implications for Rehabilitation Physiotherapists need to consider multiple patient, therapist and organisational factors when planning and delivering physiotherapy in a stroke unit. Physiotherapists should continually reflect upon how they provide physiotherapy, with respect to the duration, frequency and time of day sessions are delivered, in order to guide current and future physiotherapy delivery. As patients may demonstrate varying levels of participation in deciding and
Every day, decisions need to be made where time is a limiting factor. Regardless of situation, time constraints often place a premium on rapid decision-making. Researchers have been interested in studying this human behavior and understanding its underlying cognitive processes. In previous studies, scientists have believed that the cognitive processes underlying decision-making behavior were consistent with dual-process modes of thinking. Critics of dual-process theory question the vagueness of its definition, and claim that single-process accounts can explain the data just as well. My aim is to elucidate the cognitive processes that underlie decisions which involve some level of risk through the experimental manipulation of time pressure. Using this method, I hope to distinguish between competing hypotheses related to the origin of the effect. I will explore three types of decisions that illustrate these concepts: risky decision-making involving gambles, intertemporal choice, and one-shot public goods games involving social cooperation. In our experiments, participants made decisions about gambles framed as either gains or losses; decided upon intertemporal choices for smaller but sooner rewards or larger but later rewards; and played a one-shot public goods game involving social cooperation and contributing an amount of money to a group. In each case, we experimentally manipulated time pressure, either within subjects or among individuals. Results showed under time pressure, increased framing effects under in both hypothetical and incentivized choices; and greater contributions and cooperation among individuals, lending support to the dual process hypothesis that these effects arise from a fast, intuitive system. However, our intertemporal choice experiment showed that time constraints led to increased selection of the larger but later options, which suggests that the magnitude of the reward may play larger role in choice selection under cognitive load than
Full Text Available Introduction: Single-stage laparoscopic procedures for common bile duct (CBD stones are an alternative treatmentoption to two-stage endo-laparoscopic treatment and to open choledocholithotomy. Several reports have demonstratedthe feasibility, safety, efficiency and cost-effectiveness of laparoscopic techniques.Aim: To analyse the safety and benefits of laparoscopic compared to open common bile duct (CBD exploration.Material and methods: The prospective randomized trial included a total of 256 patients with CBD stones operated from2005 to 2009 in a single centre. The male/female ratio was 82/174, with a median age 62.3 ±5.8 years (range 27 to 87years. There were two groups of patients. Group I: laparoscopic CBD exploration (138 patients. Group II: open CBD exploration(118 patients. Patient comorbidity was assessed by means of the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA classification;ASA II – 109 patients, ASA III – 59 patients. Bile duct stones were visualized preoperatively by means of US examinationin 129 patients, by means of ERCP in 26 patients, and by magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCPin 72 patients. Preoperative evaluation was done through medical history, biochemical tests and ultrasonography.Results: The mean duration of laparoscopic procedures was 82 min (range 40-160 min. The mean duration of openprocedures was 90 min (range 60-150 min. Mean blood loss was much lower in the laparoscopic group than in theopen group (20 ±2 v.s 285 ±27, p < 0.01. Postoperative complications were observed in 7 patients of the laparoscopicgroup and in 15 patients in the open group (p < 0.01. Laparoscopic common bile duct exploration was performedthrough a trans-cystic approach in 76 patients and via choledochotomy in 62 patients. The transcystic approach wassuccessful in 76 patients (74.5%. External drainage was used in 25 (32.8% patients with the transcystic approach.Conclusions: Laparoscopic CBD exploration can be performed with
Ni Shijun; Zhang Chengjiang; Xu Zhengqi; Chen Youliang
Southwest China is one of the important areas where uranium is distributed. After exploration and research of 50 years, the metallogenic conditions for uranium deposits in Southwest China have been studied more deeply. It is found that uranium ore in Southwest China has more complete types, less deposits and more mineral occurrences, and the amount of uranium resources is disproportionate to the area of Southwest China. Researches of years show that Southwest China is characterized by thick crust. thick sedimentary cover, weak crust-mantle interaction, weak deep flu id activity in shallow strata, strong dynamic formation in shallow strata and obvious deep geologic process on block mar- gins. In this paper, the control of deep geologic process and evolution in uranium metallogenesis in Southwest China is studied by employing new theories and thoughts on the fundamental concept that deep geologic process and evolution has important control on super-large scale deposits. The study focuses on the crust-mantle structure and evolution with uranium metallogenesis, structural and magmatic activity and deep fluid activity with uranium metallogenesis, and ore-con- trolling role of penetrating faults on block edges and inside the blocks. To offer theoretic basis for large-scale uranium deposit prospecting in Southwest China, the key research on uranium deposit in Southwest China in future should be on the deep geologic evolution and uranium metallogenesis in Western Qinling Region, the uranium metallogenesis of iron oxide copper gold deposits on Kangdian axis, the uranium metallogenesis in Yunnan-Guizhou contiguous area, the hydrothermal uranium metallogenesis in Eastern Tibet and Western Sichuan, and the connection between sandstone type uranium deposit and magmatic activity. Meanwhile, the above regions are also the key ones for uranium deposit prospecting in Southwest China in a rather long period in future. (authors)
Sepucha, Karen; Atlas, Steven J; Chang, Yuchiao; Dorrwachter, Janet; Freiberg, Andrew; Mangla, Mahima; Rubash, Harry E; Simmons, Leigh H; Cha, Thomas
Patient decision aids are effective in randomized controlled trials, yet little is known about their impact in routine care. The purpose of this study was to examine whether decision aids increase shared decision-making when used in routine care. A prospective study was designed to evaluate the impact of a quality improvement project to increase the use of decision aids for patients with hip or knee osteoarthritis, lumbar disc herniation, or lumbar spinal stenosis. A usual care cohort was enrolled before the quality improvement project and an intervention cohort was enrolled after the project. Participants were surveyed 1 week after a specialist visit, and surgical status was collected at 6 months. Regression analyses adjusted for clustering of patients within clinicians and examined the impact on knowledge, patient reports of shared decision-making in the visit, and surgical rates. With 550 surveys, the study had 80% to 90% power to detect a difference in these key outcomes. The response rates to the 1-week survey were 70.6% (324 of 459) for the usual care cohort and 70.2% (328 of 467) for the intervention cohort. There was no significant difference (p > 0.05) in any patient characteristic between the 2 cohorts. More patients received decision aids in the intervention cohort at 63.6% compared with the usual care cohort at 27.3% (p = 0.007). Decision aid use was associated with higher knowledge scores, with a mean difference of 18.7 points (95% confidence interval [CI], 11.4 to 26.1 points; p < 0.001) for the usual care cohort and 15.3 points (95% CI, 7.5 to 23.0 points; p = 0.002) for the intervention cohort. Patients reported more shared decision-making (p = 0.009) in the visit with their surgeon in the intervention cohort, with a mean Shared Decision-Making Process score (and standard deviation) of 66.9 ± 27.5 points, compared with the usual care cohort at 62.5 ± 28.6 points. The majority of patients received their preferred treatment, and this did not differ
Full Text Available In consideration of the interaction among attributes and the influence of decision makers’ risk attitude, this paper proposes an intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy aggregation operator based on Choquet integral and prospect theory. With respect to a multiattribute group decision-making problem, the prospect value functions of intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy numbers are aggregated by the proposed operator; then a grey relation-projection pursuit dynamic cluster method is developed to obtain the ranking of alternatives; the firefly algorithm is used to optimize the objective function of projection for obtaining the best projection direction of grey correlation projection values, and the grey correlation projection values are evaluated, which are applied to classify, rank, and prefer the alternatives. Finally, an illustrative example is taken in the present study to make the proposed method comprehensible.
Kent-Wilkinson, Arlene; Dietrich Leurer, Marie; Luimes, Janet; Ferguson, Linda; Murray, Lee
For over 15 years the College of Nursing at the University of Saskatchewan has facilitated study abroad clinical placements in a number of countries to enhance student learning. Nursing students often find their study abroad experience to be a defining moment in their educational program, and in their personal and professional growth. The main objective of this research was to explore factors influencing nursing students' decisions to study abroad. A descriptive longitudinal design study was conducted using an online survey. The Study Abroad Survey was distributed to all undergraduate and graduate nursing students, in all years of all programs, at all sites of the College of Nursing, University of Saskatchewan in Saskatchewan, Canada. A total of 1058 nursing students registered in the 2013-2014 academic year were surveyed. The data were collected using an online survey administered by Campus Labs™ (2014). Students indicated that their interest in study abroad international experiences was high (84%), with many perceived benefits, but barriers to participation were also high for these students. Financial barriers topped the list (71%), followed by family responsibilities (30%) and job obligations (23%). The research highlights the factors behind student decision making related to international placements, and provides the basis for improvements to the College of Nursing's International Study Abroad Program (ISAP). Previous travel and international service learning, resulting in increased perceived value of a study abroad experience may prove to be the more significant factor influencing decision making, rather than financial barrier. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
José Carlos Ortiz-Bayliss
Full Text Available When solving constraint satisfaction problems (CSPs, it is a common practice to rely on heuristics to decide which variable should be instantiated at each stage of the search. But, this ordering influences the search cost. Even so, and to the best of our knowledge, no earlier work has dealt with how first variable orderings affect the overall cost. In this paper, we explore the cost of finding high-quality orderings of variables within constraint satisfaction problems. We also study differences among the orderings produced by some commonly used heuristics and the way bad first decisions affect the search cost. One of the most important findings of this work confirms the paramount importance of first decisions. Another one is the evidence that many of the existing variable ordering heuristics fail to appropriately select the first variable to instantiate. Another one is the evidence that many of the existing variable ordering heuristics fail to appropriately select the first variable to instantiate. We propose a simple method to improve early decisions of heuristics. By using it, performance of heuristics increases.
Ortiz-Bayliss, José Carlos; Amaya, Ivan; Conant-Pablos, Santiago Enrique; Terashima-Marín, Hugo
When solving constraint satisfaction problems (CSPs), it is a common practice to rely on heuristics to decide which variable should be instantiated at each stage of the search. But, this ordering influences the search cost. Even so, and to the best of our knowledge, no earlier work has dealt with how first variable orderings affect the overall cost. In this paper, we explore the cost of finding high-quality orderings of variables within constraint satisfaction problems. We also study differences among the orderings produced by some commonly used heuristics and the way bad first decisions affect the search cost. One of the most important findings of this work confirms the paramount importance of first decisions. Another one is the evidence that many of the existing variable ordering heuristics fail to appropriately select the first variable to instantiate. Another one is the evidence that many of the existing variable ordering heuristics fail to appropriately select the first variable to instantiate. We propose a simple method to improve early decisions of heuristics. By using it, performance of heuristics increases.
Jacoby, Ann; Smith, Monica; Eccles, Martin
Ensuring appropriate prescribing is an important challenge for the health service, and the need for research that takes account of the reasons behind individual general practitioners' (GPs) prescribing decisions has been highlighted. To explore differences among GPs in their decisions to prescribe new drugs. Qualitative approach, using in-depth semistructured interviews. Northern and Yorkshire Health Authority Region. Participants were identified from a random sample of 520 GPs in a quantitative study of patterns of uptake of eight recently introduced drugs. Purposeful sampling ensured inclusion of GPs prescribing any of the eight drugs and working in a range of practice settings. Fifty-six GPs were interviewed, using a topic guide. Interviews were recorded on audiotape. Transcribed text was methodically coded and data were analysed by constantly comparing emerging themes. Both low and high prescribers shared a view of themselves as conservative in their prescribing behaviour. Low prescribers appeared to conform more strongly to group norms and identified a consensus among practice partners in prescribing and cost-consciousness. Conformism to group norms was represented by a commitment to practice formularies. High prescribers more often expressed themselves to be indifferent to drug costs and a shared practice ethos. A shift in the attitudes of some GPs is required before cost-effectiveness is routinely incorporated in drug prescribing. The promotion of rational prescribing is likely to be more successful if efforts are focused on GPs' appreciation of cost issues and attitudes towards shared decision-making and responsibility.
Alex Diego Souza Queiroz; Marilia Oliveira dos Reis; Joseilton Silveira da Rocha
The objective of this study was to determine whether the decision-making models present in Prospect Theory and the theory of limited rationality could help managers of financial institutions identify and control the emotions and rational limitations involved in the credit granting process in the financial market. To this end, a study was carried out with 17 bank managers as experimental group and 31 other managers from different areas as control group. Adopting a quantitative approach to rese...
Robino, Stéphane; Buis, Hélène; Delansorne, Fanny; Tomas, Josiane; Huez, Jean-François; La Combe, Antoine; Fanello, Serge
Medical demography and the practice of medicine will be influenced by the personal plans of GPs and their decisions to stop practicing in the coming years. This study aims to understand the events that could potentially worsen the medical demography in terms of shortages of GPs for primary care in the short term. 455 GPs (all aged over 55 years) practicing in three districts of western France were selected to participate in this prospective study. 258 valid and complete questionnaires (56%) were received. With the use of a special programme, SPSS version 1.5, an overall comprehensive analysis and one by geographical sub-regional groups were performed. When queried about their plans or wishes for their practice between the present time and their age of 65, of the responding physicians, 27% wanted to continue working under the same conditions, 10% were undecided, and 63% wanted to stop or adjust their professional activity before age 65. The main reasons and factors motivating these plans were their current time constraints, the workload related to administrative tasks and the continuity of care; moreover, GPs noted the demands and expectations of patients, professional burnout and difficulties in obtaining a healthy work-life balance as factors contributing to these plans. Physicians who wanted to stop practicing (30%) were the least satisfied with their work and seem to have anticipated this plan of action given that they reduced their number of hours in the office and on-call. Those who wish to adapt their work time (33%) are for the most part satisfied even if they work more, but 70% want to reduce their work hours. The impact of these projects is a potentially heavy one, especially since two of the counties concerned have a low medical density and high rate of practicing physicians. Government measures currently proposed do not seem to respond to the evolution of private practice expected by GPs over 55 years.
Hurwitz, Lauren M; Cullen, Jennifer; Elsamanoudi, Sally; Kim, Daniel J; Hudak, Jane; Colston, Maryellen; Travis, Judith; Kuo, Huai-Ching; Porter, Christopher R; Rosner, Inger L
Patients diagnosed with prostate cancer (PCa) are presented with several treatment options of similar efficacy but varying side effects. Understanding how and why patients make their treatment decisions, as well as the effect of treatment choice on long-term outcomes, is critical to ensuring effective, patient-centered care. This study examined treatment decision-making in a racially diverse, equal-access, contemporary cohort of patients with PCa counseled on treatment options at a multidisciplinary clinic. A prospective cohort study was initiated at the Walter Reed National Military Medical Center (formerly Walter Reed Army Medical Center) in 2006. Newly diagnosed patients with PCa were enrolled before attending a multidisciplinary clinic. Patients completed surveys preclinic and postclinic to assess treatment preferences, reasons for treatment choice, and decisional regret. As of January 2014, 925 patients with PCa enrolled in this study. Surgery (54%), external radiation (20%), and active surveillance (12%) were the most common primary treatments for patients with low- and intermediate-risk PCa, whereas patients with high-risk PCa chose surgery (34%) or external radiation with neoadjuvant hormones (57%). Treatment choice differed by age at diagnosis, race, comorbidity status, and calendar year in both univariable and multivariable analyses. Patients preferred to play an active role in the decision-making process and cited doctors at the clinic as the most helpful source of treatment-related information. Almost all patients reported satisfaction with their decision. This is one of the first prospective cohort studies to examine treatment decision-making in an equal-access, multidisciplinary clinic setting. Studies of this cohort would aid in understanding and improving the PCa decision-making process. Published by Elsevier Inc.
Fisher, Alana; Manicavasagar, Vijaya; Sharpe, Louise; Laidsaar-Powell, Rebekah; Juraskova, Ilona
Treatment decision-making in bipolar II disorder (BPII) is challenging, yet the decision support needs of patients and family remain unknown. To explore patient and family perspectives of treatment decision-making in BPII. Semistructured, qualitative interviews were conducted with 28 patients with BPII-diagnosis and 13 family members with experience in treatment decision-making in the outpatient setting. Interviews were audiotaped, transcribed verbatim and analysed thematically using framework methods. Participant demographics, clinical characteristics and preferences for patient decision-making involvement were assessed. Four inter-related themes emerged: (1) Attitudes and response to diagnosis and treatment; (2) Influences on decision-making; (3) The nature and flow of decision-making; (4) Decision support and challenges. Views differed according to patient involvement preferences, time since diagnosis and patients' current mood symptoms. This is the first known study to provide in-depth patient and family insights into the key factors influencing BPII treatment decision-making, and potential improvements and challenges to this process. Findings will inform the development of BPII treatment decision-making resources that better meet the informational and decision-support priorities of end users. This research was partly funded by a Postgraduate Research Grant awarded to the first author by the University of Sydney. No conflicts of interest declared.
David F. Kisor
Full Text Available Objective: To evaluate a pilot of a laboratory model for relating pharmacogenetics to clinical decision making. Case Study: This pilot was undertaken and evaluated to help determine if a pharmacogenetics laboratory should be included in the core Doctor of Pharmacy curriculum. The placement of the laboratory exercise in the curriculum was determined by identifying the point in the curriculum where the students had been introduced to the chemistry of deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA as well as instructed on the chemistry of genetic variation. The laboratory included cytochrome P450 2C19 genotyping relative to the *2 variant. Twenty-four students served as the pilot group. Students provided buccal swabs as the source of DNA. Students stabilized the samples and were then provided instructions related to sample preparation, polymerase chain reaction, and gel electrophoresis. The results were reported as images of gels. Students used a reference gel image to compare their results to. Students then applied a dosing algorithm to make a "clinical decision" relative to clopidogrel use. Students were offered a post laboratory survey regarding attitudes toward the laboratory. Twenty-four students completed the laboratory with genotyping results being provided for 22 students (91.7%. Sixteen students were wild-type (*1/*1, while six students were heterozygous (*1/*2. Twenty-three students (96% completed the post laboratory survey. All 23 agreed (6, 26.1% or strongly agreed (17, 73.9% that the laboratory "had relevance and value in the pharmacy curriculum" Conclusion: The post pilot study survey exploring a laboratory model for pharmacogenetics related to clinical decision making indicated that such a laboratory would be viewed positively by students. This model may be adopted by colleges to expand pharmacogenetics education. Type: Case Study
This paper reports on a study about how the mathematics textbook was perceived and used by the teacher in the context of a calculus part of a basic mathematics course for first-year engineering students. The focus was on the teacher's choices and the use of definitions, examples and exercises in a sequence of lectures introducing the derivative concept. Data were collected during observations of lectures and an interview, and informal talks with the teacher. The introduction and the treatment of the derivative as proposed by the teacher during the lectures were analysed in relation to the results of the content text analysis of the textbook. The teacher's decisions were explored through the lens of intended learning goals for engineering students taking the mathematics course. The results showed that the sequence of concepts and the formal introduction of the derivative as proposed by the textbook were closely followed during the lectures. The examples and tasks offered to the students focused strongly on procedural knowledge. Although the textbook proposes both examples and exercises that promote conceptual knowledge, these opportunities were not fully utilized during the observed lectures. Possible reasons for the teacher's choices and decisions are discussed.
Full Text Available Background Sensor technologies are designed to assist independent living of older adults. However, it is often difficult for older adults to make an informed decision about adopting sensor technologies.Objective To explore Bruce’s framework of informed decision making (IDM for in-home use of sensor technologies in community-dwelling elders.Method The IDM framework guided development of a semi-structured interview. A theory-driven coding approach was used for analysis.Results Participants supported most of the elements of the framework, but not all aspects of each element were addressed. Perceived usefulness of technologies was identified as an area for framework extension.Conclusion This paper provides useful information for health care professionals to consider how to enhance IDM of older adults regarding the use of sensor technologies. The results also illuminate elements of the IDM framework that may be critical to facilitating independent living for older adults.
Cremer, Miriam L; Holland, Erica; Monterroza, Maritza; Duran, Sonia; Singh, Rameet; Terbell, Heather; Edelman, Alison
To explore the factors that influence rural Salvadoran women to undergo tubal sterilization versus opting for alternative methods of family planning. A moderator fluent in English and Spanish conducted eleven 90-minute focus groups consisting of 5-10 women each. Eligible women in the municipality of San Pedro Perulapan, El Salvador, were identified and recruited by local health workers. Participant demographics and information about family planning decisions were collected through detailed notes and tape-recorded sessions. The tapes were transcribed verbatim, and all data were analyzed using grounded theory procedures to identify common themes. Eighty women aged 24-45 years who had previously been sterilized participated in the study. Three major themes influenced a woman's decision to undergo sterilization instead of opting for alternative forms of family planning: (1) availability: tubal sterilization is readily available, (2) fears about side effects of other methods: these women associated negative side effects with other forms of family planning, (3) effectiveness: the women in these focus groups thought sterilization was more effective than other forms of family planning. This study shows that there is a lack of information, and misinformation, about other effective methods of contraception, especially the intrauterine device and oral contraceptives. Reproductive health education projects, especially those providing services in locations similar to rural El Salvador, should focus on providing accurate information about all forms of contraception, including tubal sterilization.
Ebrahimian, Abbasali; Seyedin, Hesam; Jamshidi-Orak, Roohangiz; Masoumi, Gholamreza
Transfer of patients in medical emergency situations is one of the most important missions of emergency medical service (EMS) staffs. So this study was performed to explore affecting factors in EMS staffs' decision during transporting of patients in medical situations to medical facilities. The participants in this qualitative study consisted of 18 EMS staffs working in prehospital care facilities in Tehran, Iran. Data were gathered through semistructured interviews. The data were analyzed using a content analysis approach. The data analysis revealed the following theme: "degree of perceived risk in EMS staffs and their patients." This theme consisted of two main categories: (1) patient's condition' and (2) the context of the EMS mission'. The patent's condition category emerged from "physical health statuses," "socioeconomic statuses," and "cultural background" subcategories. The context of the EMS mission also emerged from two subcategories of "characteristics of the mission" and EMS staffs characteristics'. EMS system managers can consider adequate technical, informational, financial, educational, and emotional supports to facilitate the decision making of their staffs. Also, development of an effective and user-friendly checklist and scoring system was recommended for quick and easy recognition of patients' needs for transportation in a prehospital situation.
Full Text Available Transfer of patients in medical emergency situations is one of the most important missions of emergency medical service (EMS staffs. So this study was performed to explore affecting factors in EMS staffs’ decision during transporting of patients in medical situations to medical facilities. The participants in this qualitative study consisted of 18 EMS staffs working in prehospital care facilities in Tehran, Iran. Data were gathered through semistructured interviews. The data were analyzed using a content analysis approach. The data analysis revealed the following theme: “degree of perceived risk in EMS staffs and their patients.” This theme consisted of two main categories: (1 patient’s condition’ and (2 the context of the EMS mission’. The patent’s condition category emerged from “physical health statuses,” “socioeconomic statuses,” and “cultural background” subcategories. The context of the EMS mission also emerged from two subcategories of “characteristics of the mission” and EMS staffs characteristics’. EMS system managers can consider adequate technical, informational, financial, educational, and emotional supports to facilitate the decision making of their staffs. Also, development of an effective and user-friendly checklist and scoring system was recommended for quick and easy recognition of patients’ needs for transportation in a prehospital situation.
Jeppesen, Sara Lise
This paper places focus on explicit consideration of sustainability issues in transport decision making by presenting and using a developed “Decision Simulation Technique” (DST). This technique can be used by an analyst to ‘scan’ a transport planning problem with regard to what in DST terms...... is called a sustainability strategy. This scanning can serve the purpose of informing a group of decision makers before they actually have to deal with, for example, the choice among a number of alternatives that have all been formulated as being relevant. The main focus of the paper is to illustrate how...
Full Text Available Abstract Background In patients with Stage 5 Chronic Kidney Disease who require renal replacement therapy a major decision concerns modality choice. However, many patients defer the decision about modality choice or they have an urgent or emergent need of RRT, which results in them starting hemodialysis with a Central Venous Catheter. Thereafter, efforts to help patients make more timely decisions about access choices utilizing education and resource allocation strategies met with limited success resulting in a high prevalent CVC use in Canada. Providing decision support tailored to meet patients' decision making needs may improve this situation. The Registered Nurses Association of Ontario has developed a clinical practice guideline to guide decision support for adults living with Chronic Kidney Disease (Decision Support for Adults with Chronic Kidney Disease. The purpose of this study is to determine the impact of implementing selected recommendations this guideline on priority provincial targets for hemodialysis access in patients with Stage 5 CKD who currently use Central Venous Catheters for vascular access. Methods/Design A non-experimental intervention study with repeated measures will be conducted at St. Michaels Hospital in Toronto, Canada. Decisional conflict about dialysis access choice will be measured using the validated SURE tool, an instrument used to identify decisional conflict. Thereafter a tailored decision support intervention will be implemented. Decisional conflict will be re-measured and compared with baseline scores. Patients and staff will be interviewed to gain an understanding of how useful this intervention was for them and whether it would be feasible to implement more widely. Quantitative data will be analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. Statistical significance of difference between means over time for aggregated SURE scores (pre/post will be assessed using a paired t-test. Qualitative analysis
In many areas where uranium has been or is explored, an enormous amount of data on geology and hydrogeology is available. When these uranium exploration data are stored in a structured way, they can be made useful for other purposes dm uranium exploration only. For instance, in case of environmental pollution, which is often a side-effect of uranium activities such as mining and leaching, the data can be used to develop a computer model of the environment. With such a model impacts can be calculated of different scenarios for cleaning up or isolation of the pollution. A GIS can be used to store the data, to visualize the data (map production) and to analyse the data, but also to calculate input for the models. The advantages of using GIS and models as tools for decision support are explained with the Contaminant Transport Information System (CTIS) as a case study. The CTIS has been developed for remediation operations in the uranium mining area Straz pod Ralskem and Hamr in the Czech Republic. The CTIS consists of a GIS database, a regional groundwater flow model and a local contaminant transport model as well as interfaces for data transfer between the components of the information system. The power of the CTIS lies in the fact that the modelling necessary for the design of a remediation operation can be carried out efficiently by using one of the two models, depending on the specific question. Thus alternative remediation scenarios can be judged easily and fairly on their consequences and effectiveness. (author)
I. V. Bystrova
Full Text Available To conduct a justified assessment of the perspective resources of the Caspian Sea and adjacent territories, the authors develop a rational scheme of the geological exploration process with its analysis and identification of significance for hydrocarbon exploration in the northern part of the Caspian Sea. The paper outlines the methodological approaches and concepts of introducing this scheme in search for oil and gas. This allows us to justify and select the optimal set of research methods at various stages of oil and gas production. The system of structure and principles of organization scheme of the geological prospecting process allow to identify the optimal complexes of methods of geological-geophysical and other studies for these stages. The article provides information confirming the necessity of developing and implementing this scheme in the geological exploration process of the studied territory. The necessary development of opportunities in carrying out this work fundamentally changes the qualitative aspect of the geological exploration process. The facts presented in the article allow to study in detail the structures of the shelf zone, the thicknesses and composition of productive subsalt deposits, and to trace their interrelation with continental structural elements. The paper shows the importance of providing, at different levels, a rationale and choice of an optimal set of research methods at different stages of oil and gas prospecting during the development of a rational geological exploration scheme for hydrocarbons in water areas. This paper presents a proposed block diagram of a marine geological prospecting process for hydrocarbons. It describes the sequence of performing the types of work at the regional, exploratory and exploration stages. For each stage of the study, the authors set the tasks, determine the objects of research, methods of geological and geophysical research and their results, and determine methods for
Nthontho, Maitumeleng Albertina
The idea of students participating in decisions that affect them as individuals, organisations and/or communities is recent and urgent. The participation of students in decision making has gained global support, yet it does not seem to be regarded as a main vehicle for promoting democracy in educational institutions. This conceptual paper aims at…
A host of large uranium deposits have been successively discovered abroad by means of geological exploration, metallogenetic model studies and the application of new geophysical and geochemical methods since 1970's. Thorough undertaking geological research relevant to prospecting for super large uranium deposits have attracted great attention of the worldwide geological circle. The important task for the vast numbers of uranium geological workers is to make an afford to discover more numerous large and super large uranium deposits in China. The author comprehensively analyses the regional geological setting and geological metallogenetic conditions for the super large uranium deposits in the world. Comparative studies have been undertaken and the prospecting direction and favourable target areas for the exploration of super large uranium deposits in China have been proposed
Huang Jingbai; Li Shengxiang
In this paper, the paleo-interlayer-oxidation type sandstone-hosted uranium deposits occurred in the Meso-Cenozoic continental basins in China are divided into 3 subtype, they are stratum over lapping buried subtype, structure-uplifting destroy subtype and faulted-folding conserved subtype. The metallogenic characteristics, metallogenic model and exploration prospect for these 3 subtypes uranium deposits are discussed. It is proposed that the paleo-interlayer-oxidation type sandstone-hosted uranium deposits, besides the recent interlayer oxidation type sandstone-hosted uranium deposits, are of great prospecting potential in the Meso-Cenozoic continental basins in China. Therefore, the metallogenic theory of these types uranium deposits should be conscientiously summarized and replenished continuously so as to propel forward the exploration of the sandstone-hosted uranium deposits in China. (authors)
Nightingale, J.M.; Murphy, F.J.; Robinson, L.; Newton-Hughes, A.; Hogg, P.
Objective: Breast compression decreases radiation dose and reduces potential for motion and geometric unsharpness, yet there is variability in applied compression force within and between some centres. This article explores the problem solving process applied to the application of breast compression force from the mammography practitioners' perspective. Methods: A qualitative analysis was undertaken using an existing full data set of transcribed qualitative data collected in a phenomenological study of mammography practitioner values, behaviours and beliefs. The data emerged from focus groups conducted at six NHS breast screening centres in England (participant n = 41), and semi-structured interviews with mammography educators (n = 6). A researcher followed a thematic content analysis process to extract data related to mammography compression problem solving, developing a series of categories, themes and sub-themes. Emerging themes were then peer-validated by two other researchers, and developed into a model of practice. Results: Seven consecutive stages contributed towards compression force problem solving: assessing the request; first impressions; explanations and consent; handling the breast and positioning; applying compression force; final adjustments; feedback. The model captures information gathering, problem framing, problem solving and decision making which inform an ‘ideal’ compression scenario. Behavioural problem solving, heuristics and intuitive decision making are reflected within this model. Conclusion: The application of compression should no longer be considered as one single task within mammography, but is now recognised as a seven stage problem solving continuum. This continuum model is the first to be applied to mammography, and is adaptable and transferable to other radiography practice settings. - Highlights: • Mammography compression should no longer be considered as one single examination task. • A seven stage breast
Angela Smith, PharmD Candidate
Full Text Available Objective: To evaluate a pilot of a laboratory model for relating pharmacogenetics to clinical decision making. Case Study: This pilot was undertaken and evaluated to help determine if a pharmacogenetics laboratory should be included in the core Doctor of Pharmacy curriculum. The placement of the laboratory exercise in the curriculum was determined by identifying the point in the curriculum where the students had been introduced to the chemistry of deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA as well as instructed on the chemistry of genetic variation. The laboratory included cytochrome P450 2C19 genotyping relative to the *2 variant. Twenty-four students served as the pilot group. Students provided buccal swabs as the source of DNA. Students stabilized the samples and were then provided instructions related to sample preparation, polymerase chain reaction, and gel electrophoresis. The results were reported as images of gels. Students used a reference gel image to compare their results to. Students then applied a dosing algorithm to make a “clinical decision” relative to clopidogrel use. Students were offered a post laboratory survey regarding attitudes toward the laboratory. Twenty-four students completed the laboratory with genotyping results being provided for 22 students (91.7%. Sixteen students were wild-type (*1/*1, while six students were heterozygous (*1/*2. Twenty-three students (96% completed the post laboratory survey. All 23 agreed (6, 26.1% or strongly agreed (17, 73.9% that the laboratory “had relevance and value in the pharmacy curriculum”. Conclusion: The post pilot study survey exploring a laboratory model for pharmacogenetics related to clinical decision making indicated that such a laboratory would be viewed positively by students. This model may be adopted by colleges to expand pharmacogenetics education.
Davis, Esther L; McCaffery, Kirsten; Mullan, Barbara; Juraskova, Ilona
Decision aids (DAs) are non-directive communication tools that help patients make value-consistent health-care decisions. However, most DAs have been developed without an explicit theoretical framework, resulting in a lack of understanding of how DAs achieve outcomes. To investigate the effect of promoting affective vs. deliberative processing on DA effectiveness based on dual-process theory. One hundred and forty-eight female university students participated in a randomized controlled experiment with three conditions: emotion-focused, information-focused and control. Preference-value consistency, knowledge, decisional conflict and satisfaction were compared across the conditions using planned contrast analyses. The intervention comprised two different DAs and instructional manipulations. The emotion-focused condition received a modified DA with affective content and instructions to induce an affective reaction. The information-focused and control conditions received the same DA without the affective content. The information-focused condition received additional instructions to induce deliberative processing. Controlling for the experiment-wise error rate at P processing may hinder value-consistent decision making, while deliberative processing may enhance decisional satisfaction. This investigation of the effect of affective and deliberative processes in DA-supported decision making has implications for the design and use of DAs. DA effectiveness may be enhanced by incorporating a simple instruction to focus on the details of the information. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Peter James Allen
Full Text Available Quantitative research methods are essential to the development of professional competence in psychology. They are also an area of weakness for many students. In particular, students are known to struggle with the skill of selecting quantitative analytical strategies appropriate for common research questions, hypotheses and data types. To begin understanding this apparent deficit, we presented nine psychology undergraduates (who had all completed at least one quantitative methods course with brief research vignettes, and asked them to explicate the process they would follow to identify an appropriate statistical technique for each. Thematic analysis revealed that all participants found this task challenging, and even those who had completed several research methods courses struggled to articulate how they would approach the vignettes on more than a very superficial and intuitive level. While some students recognized that there is a systematic decision making process that can be followed, none could describe it clearly or completely. We then presented the same vignettes to 10 psychology academics with particular expertise in conducting research and/or research methods instruction. Predictably, these ‘experts’ were able to describe a far more systematic, comprehensive, flexible and nuanced approach to statistical decision making, which begins early in the research process, and pays consideration to multiple contextual factors. They were sensitive to the challenges that students experience when making statistical decisions, which they attributed partially to how research methods and statistics are commonly taught. This sensitivity was reflected in their pedagogic practices. When asked to consider the format and features of an aid that could facilitate the statistical decision making process, both groups expressed a preference for an accessible, comprehensive and reputable resource that follows a basic decision tree logic. For the academics in
Allen, Peter J; Dorozenko, Kate P; Roberts, Lynne D
Quantitative research methods are essential to the development of professional competence in psychology. They are also an area of weakness for many students. In particular, students are known to struggle with the skill of selecting quantitative analytical strategies appropriate for common research questions, hypotheses and data types. To begin understanding this apparent deficit, we presented nine psychology undergraduates (who had all completed at least one quantitative methods course) with brief research vignettes, and asked them to explicate the process they would follow to identify an appropriate statistical technique for each. Thematic analysis revealed that all participants found this task challenging, and even those who had completed several research methods courses struggled to articulate how they would approach the vignettes on more than a very superficial and intuitive level. While some students recognized that there is a systematic decision making process that can be followed, none could describe it clearly or completely. We then presented the same vignettes to 10 psychology academics with particular expertise in conducting research and/or research methods instruction. Predictably, these "experts" were able to describe a far more systematic, comprehensive, flexible, and nuanced approach to statistical decision making, which begins early in the research process, and pays consideration to multiple contextual factors. They were sensitive to the challenges that students experience when making statistical decisions, which they attributed partially to how research methods and statistics are commonly taught. This sensitivity was reflected in their pedagogic practices. When asked to consider the format and features of an aid that could facilitate the statistical decision making process, both groups expressed a preference for an accessible, comprehensive and reputable resource that follows a basic decision tree logic. For the academics in particular, this aid
Allen, Peter J.; Dorozenko, Kate P.; Roberts, Lynne D.
Quantitative research methods are essential to the development of professional competence in psychology. They are also an area of weakness for many students. In particular, students are known to struggle with the skill of selecting quantitative analytical strategies appropriate for common research questions, hypotheses and data types. To begin understanding this apparent deficit, we presented nine psychology undergraduates (who had all completed at least one quantitative methods course) with brief research vignettes, and asked them to explicate the process they would follow to identify an appropriate statistical technique for each. Thematic analysis revealed that all participants found this task challenging, and even those who had completed several research methods courses struggled to articulate how they would approach the vignettes on more than a very superficial and intuitive level. While some students recognized that there is a systematic decision making process that can be followed, none could describe it clearly or completely. We then presented the same vignettes to 10 psychology academics with particular expertise in conducting research and/or research methods instruction. Predictably, these “experts” were able to describe a far more systematic, comprehensive, flexible, and nuanced approach to statistical decision making, which begins early in the research process, and pays consideration to multiple contextual factors. They were sensitive to the challenges that students experience when making statistical decisions, which they attributed partially to how research methods and statistics are commonly taught. This sensitivity was reflected in their pedagogic practices. When asked to consider the format and features of an aid that could facilitate the statistical decision making process, both groups expressed a preference for an accessible, comprehensive and reputable resource that follows a basic decision tree logic. For the academics in particular, this aid
Fisher, Alana; Manicavasagar, Vijaya; Sharpe, Louise; Laidsaar-Powell, Rebekah; Juraskova, Ilona
This study qualitatively explored clinicians' views and experiences of treatment decision-making in BPII. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 20 practising clinicians (n = 10 clinical psychologists, n = 6 GPs, n = 4 psychiatrists) with experience in treating adult outpatients with BPII. Interviews were audiotaped, transcribed verbatim and thematically analysed using framework methods. Professional experience, and preferences for patient involvement in decision-making were also assessed. Qualitative analyses yielded four inter-related themes: (1) (non-)acceptance of diagnosis and treatment; (2) types of decisions; (3) treatment uncertainty and balancing act; and (4) decision-making in consultations. Clinician preferences for treatment, professional experience, and self-reported preferences for patient/family involvement seemed to influence decision-making. This study is the first to explore clinician views and experiences of treatment decision-making in BPII. Findings demonstrate how clinician-related factors may shape treatment decision-making, and suggest potential problems such as patient perceptions of lower-than-preferred involvement.
Alex Diego Souza Queiroz
Full Text Available The objective of this study was to determine whether the decision-making models present in Prospect Theory and the theory of limited rationality could help managers of financial institutions identify and control the emotions and rational limitations involved in the credit granting process in the financial market. To this end, a study was carried out with 17 bank managers as experimental group and 31 other managers from different areas as control group. Adopting a quantitative approach to research, questionnaires were sent electronically to a number of bank branches. Five scenarios were presented, seeking to identify the influence of behavioral factors on decisions in situations of risk. In addition, emotional triggers were included in some questions in order to verify the influence of this component on responses. Results were treated with SPSS software, using descriptive analysis of data and the statistical test Chi-square (χ². Results observed for the five scenarios indicated that emotions and limited rationality in complex environments tend to influence managers in their decision-making process. The study evidence suggests differences in decision-making in accordance with how the problem is presented.
Ismail, Sharif; Nason, Edward; Marjanovic, Sonja; Grant, Jonathan
Abstract Bibliometric analysis is an increasingly important part of a broader “toolbox” of evaluation methods available to research and development (R&D) policymakers to support decision-making. In the US, UK and Australia, for example, there is evidence of gradual convergence over the past ten years towards a model of university research assessment and ranking incorporating the use of bibliometric measures. In Britain, the Department of Health (England) has shown growing interest in using bibliometric analysis to support prospective R&D decision-making, and has engaged RAND Europe's expertise in this area through a number of exercises since 2005. These range from the macro-level selection of potentially high impact institutions, to micro-level selection of high impact individuals for the National Institute for Health Research's faculty of researchers. The aim of this study is to create an accessible, “beginner's guide” to bibliometric theory and application in the area of health R&D decision-making. The study also aims to identify future directions and possible next steps in this area, based on RAND Europe's work with the Department of Health to date. It is targeted at a range of audiences, and will be of interest to health and biomedical researchers, as well as R&D decision-makers in the UK and elsewhere. The study was completed with funding support from RAND Europe's Health R&D Policy Research Unit with the Department of Health. PMID:28083218
Heslin, Margaret; Callaghan, Lynne; Packwood, Martin; Badu, Vincent; Byford, Sarah
To determine if street triage is effective at reducing the total number of people with mental health needs detained under section 136, and is associated with cost savings compared to usual police response. Routine data from a 6-month period in the year before and after the implementation of a street triage scheme were used to explore detentions under section 136, and to populate a decision analytic model to explore the impact of street triage on the cost to the NHS and the criminal justice sector of supporting people with a mental health need. A predefined area of Sussex, South East England, UK. All people who were detained under section 136 within the predefined area or had contact with the street triage team. The street triage model used here was based on a psychiatric nurse attending incidents with a police constable. The primary outcome was change in the total number of detentions under section 136 between the before and after periods assessed. Secondary analysis focused on whether the additional costs of street triage were offset by cost savings as a result of changes in detentions under section 136. Detentions under section 136 in the street triage period were significantly lower than in the usual response period (118 vs 194 incidents, respectively; χ(2) (1df) 18.542, p<0.001). Total NHS and criminal justice costs were estimated to be £1043 in the street triage period compared to £1077 in the usual response period. Investment in street triage was offset by savings as a result of reduced detentions under section 136, particularly detentions in custody. Data available did not include assessment of patient outcomes, so a full economic evaluation was not possible. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/
Reeves, Andrew T
... to make effective decisions. An environment of extreme information ambiguity, a dependent variable, is one of the most difficult components of a battle where the decision maker may reach a confusing and debilitating point...
Jordan, Jeremy D
.... Methodology is developed that allows a decision maker to change his perceived optimal policy based on available knowledge of the opponents strategy, where the opponent is a rational decision maker...
Rapport, F.; Iredale, R.; Jones, W.; Sivell, S.; Edwards, A.; Gray, J.; Elwyn, G.
BACKGROUND: There is increasing need for accessible information about familial breast cancer for those facing complex decisions around genetic testing, screening and treatment. Information currently includes leaflets and computerized decision aids, offering interactive interfaces to clarify complex
Full Text Available This research examined disadvantageous inequality aversion in 4- and 6-year-old children. Using the resource allocation paradigm, we explored how inequality aversion was influenced by whether a cost was associated with the equitable choice. We also investigated whether preferences for equality differed depending on whether the inequitable choice presented a small or large discrepancy between the payoff of the participant and their partner. The results demonstrated that cost plays a large role in decision-making, as children preferred equality more when there was no cost associated with it compared to when there was a cost. Interestingly, the effect of cost also affected discrepancy, with children more likely to choose equality when the discrepancy was large as opposed to small, in cost trials but not in no cost trials. Finally, the effect of discrepancy also interacted with age, with older children being more sensitive to the discrepancy between themselves and their partner Together, these results suggest that children’s behaviour is not indiscriminately guided by a generalized aversion to inequality or established fairness norms. Alternate motives for inequality aversion are discussed.
Wolbers, Michiel; Hofman, Erwin; Halman, Johannes I.M.
Innovation processes are seen as collections of decisions that are made in the context of a single innovation project. Those decisions determine the course and the final success of an innovation project. There is, however, a lack of literature on how decisions are made in innovation projects. In
Bekker, Marleen P.M.; Putters, Kim; Grinten, Tom E.D. van der
Like any policy-relevant research, HIA faces the risk of not being used by decisions-makers. This article addresses the questions: 'How do policy decisions come about?' and 'How does this affect HIA?' Current literature in political-administrative sciences identifies three ways for decision-making: rational, incremental and mixed model. These models define the relationship between the policy process at stake and the HIA. In incremental or mixed model decision-making, use of HIA evidence by policy-makers is heavily dependent on their values in the context, which may result in conceptual utilization or may extend to strategic utilization. In rational decision-making, HIA provides information independent from the context, which results in instrumental utilization. HIA practitioners need to optimise utilization and produce an appropriate HIA by mapping the policy process. They can do this by asking the questions 'What? How? Who? and What context? and by maintaining continuous communication with the decision-makers. An appropriate HIA is policy-, time- and place-specific: reflecting the decision-making of the policy at stake. Furthermore, HIA concerns two policy fields with two different contexts and, in some cases, two different decision-making models. The administrative requirements for an appropriate HIA need further exploration
Lee, B. (Bruno); Pourmousavian, N. (Navid); Hensen, J.L.M.
Industrial halls pose high energy saving potential that is not yet explored under current design practice. Common design approaches such as parametric study or optimization are largely constrained by the assumptions and do not promote flexibility in the decision making process. Based on the unique
De San Miguel, Kristen; Lewin, Gill; Burton, Elissa; Toye, Christine; Boldy, Duncan; Howat, Peter
Personal alarms support independent living and have the potential to reduce serious consequences after a fall or during a medical emergency. While some Australian states have government funded personal alarm programs, others do not; but user-pays services are available. Although several studies have examined the profiles of alarm users, little is known about the risk profile of non-users. Specifically, whether there are "at risk" individuals who are unable, or choose not to purchase a service, who experience a home-based emergency in which an alarm could have mitigated an adverse outcome. This study aimed to describe the 'risk profile' of purchasers and non-purchasers of alarms; explore the reasons behind the decision to purchase or not to purchase and identify how often emergency assistance was needed and why. Purchasers and non-purchasers were followed for one year in this prospective cohort study. Demographic, decision-making and risk factor data were collected at an initial face-to-face interview, while information about emergencies was collected by monthly calls. One hundred and fifty-seven purchasers and sixty-five non-purchasers completed the study. The risk profiles between the groups were similar in terms of gender, living arrangements, fall history and medical conditions. Purchasers (Mean = 82.6 years) were significantly older than non-purchasers (Mean = 79.3 years), (t(220) = -3.38, p = 0.000) and more functionally dependent on the IADL (z = -2.57, p = 0.010) and ADL (z = -2.45 p = 0.014) function scores. Non-purchasers (Mean = 8.04, SD = 3.57) were more socially isolated with significantly fewer family networks than purchasers (Mean = 9.46, SD = 3.25) (t(220) = -2.86, p = 0.005). Both groups experienced similarly high numbers of emergencies, 38.2 % of purchasers and 41.5 % of non-purchasers had at least one emergency where an alarm could have assisted. Main reasons for non-purchase were: cost (77 %), limited alarm range (51 %), no need (39 %) and lack
Kim, Myung-Sun; Kang, Bit-Na; Lim, Jae Young
Decision-making is the process of forming preferences for possible options, selecting and executing actions, and evaluating the outcome. This study used the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) and the Prospect Valence Learning (PVL) model to investigate deficits in risk-reward related decision-making in patients with chronic schizophrenia, and to identify decision-making processes that contribute to poor IGT performance in these patients. Thirty-nine patients with schizophrenia and 31 healthy controls participated. Decision-making was measured by total net score, block net scores, and the total number of cards selected from each deck of the IGT. PVL parameters were estimated with the Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling scheme in OpenBugs and BRugs, its interface to R, and the estimated parameters were analyzed with the Mann-Whitney U-test. The schizophrenia group received significantly lower total net scores compared to the control group. In terms of block net scores, an interaction effect of group × block was observed. The block net scores of the schizophrenia group did not differ across the five blocks, whereas those of the control group increased as the blocks progressed. The schizophrenia group obtained significantly lower block net scores in the fourth and fifth blocks of the IGT and selected cards from deck D (advantageous) less frequently than the control group. Additionally, the schizophrenia group had significantly lower values on the utility-shape, loss-aversion, recency, and consistency parameters of the PVL model. These results indicate that patients with schizophrenia experience deficits in decision-making, possibly due to failure in learning the expected value of each deck, and incorporating outcome experiences of previous trials into expectancies about options in the present trial.
Humphreys, Kathryn L; Tottenham, Nim; Lee, Steve S
Learning from past decisions can enhance successful decision-making. It is unclear whether difficulties in learning from experience may contribute to risky decision-making, which may be altered among individuals with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). This study follows 192 children with and without ADHD aged 5 to 10 years for approximately 2.5 years and examines their risky decision-making using the Balloon Emotional Learning Task (BELT), a computerized assessment of sequential risky decision-making in which participants pump up a series of virtual balloons for points. The BELT contains three task conditions: one with a variable explosion point, one with a stable and early explosion point, and one with a stable and late explosion point. These conditions may be learned via experience on the task. Contrary to expectations, ADHD status was not found to be related to greater risk-taking on the BELT, and among younger children ADHD status is in fact associated with reduced risk-taking. In addition, the typically-developing children without ADHD showed significant learning-related gains on both stable task conditions. However, the children with ADHD demonstrated learning on the condition with a stable and early explosion point, but not on the condition with the stable and late explosion point, in which more pumps are required before learning when the balloon will explode. Learning during decision-making may be more difficult for children with ADHD. Because adapting to changing environmental demands requires the use of feedback to guide future behavior, negative outcomes associated with childhood ADHD may partially reflect difficulties in learning from experience.
Liu, Xiaojiang; Lyu, Jie; An, Youzhong
The aim of this case-control study is to explore clinical objective variables for diagnosing delirium of intensive care unit (ICU) patients. According to the method of prospective case-control study, critical adult postoperative patients who were transferred to ICU of Peking University People's Hospital from October 2015 to May 2016 and needed mechanical ventilation were included. After evaluating the Richmond agitation sedation scale score (RASS), the patients whose score were -2 or greater were sorted into two groups, delirium and non-delirium, according to the confusion assessment method for the ICU (CAM-ICU). Then these patients were observed by domestic multifunctional detector for electroencephalographic (EEG) variables such as brain lateralization, brain introvert, brain activity, brain energy consumption, focus inward, focus outward, cerebral inhibition, fatigue, sleep severity, sedation index, pain index, anxiety index, fidgety index, stress index and the cerebral blood flow (CBF) index which was named of perfusion index. Other variables including indexes of ICU blood gas analysis, which was consisted of variables of blood gas analysis, routine blood test and biochemistry, previous history and prognostic outcome was recorded. Binary logistic regression was used for multivariate analysis. Forty-three postoperative patients, who needed intensive care, were included. Eighteen were in delirium group and twenty-five in control group. Excluding the trauma, variables like gender, age, temperature, heart rate, respiratory rate, mean arterial pressure, acute physiology and chronic health evaluationII(APACHEII) score, organ failure, dementia and emergency surgery didn't show any statistical significance between two groups. The trauma in delirious patients increased obviously compared with the control group (33.3% vs. 4.0%, P = 0.031). Except for the brain activity [122.47 (88.62, 154.21) vs. 89.40 (86.27, 115.97), P = 0.034], there were no statistical differences in
Chang, Pamara F
To understand the dynamic experiences of parents undergoing the decision-making process regarding cochlear implants for their child(ren). Thirty-three parents of d/Deaf children participated in semi-structured interviews. Interviews were digitally recorded, transcribed, and coded using iterative and thematic coding. The results from this study reveal four salient topics related to parents' decision-making process regarding cochlear implantation: 1) factors parents considered when making the decision to get the cochlear implant for their child (e.g., desire to acculturate child into one community), 2) the extent to which parents' communities influence their decision-making (e.g., norms), 3) information sources parents seek and value when decision-making (e.g., parents value other parent's experiences the most compared to medical or online sources), and 4) personal experiences with stigma affecting their decision to not get the cochlear implant for their child. This study provides insights into values and perspectives that can be utilized to improve informed decision-making, when making risky medical decisions with long-term implications. With thorough information provisions, delineation of addressing parents' concerns and encompassing all aspects of the decision (i.e., medical, social and cultural), health professional teams could reduce the uncertainty and anxiety for parents in this decision-making process for cochlear implantation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The research activities which led to the detection of the Key Lake deposit and their model character for uranium prospecting in this area are discussed. The genesis of the ores and the surrounding rocks are described, and the possible genesis of the deposit is discussed on the basis of the present state of knowledge. (HP) [de
Nurmatin, S.; Rustaman, N. Y.
Learning can be planned by the person him/herself when he or she tries to reflect his/her learning. A study involving prospective science teachers in junior secondary schools was carried out to analyze their ability on Pedagogical Content Knowledge (PCK) in reflective learning after teaching practice. The study was focused especially in creating Pedagogical and Professional Repertoires (PaP-eRs) as part of resource-folios. PaP-eRs as a narrative writing in the learning activities are created by prospective science teachers after lesson plan implementation. Making the narrative writing is intended that prospective science teachers can reflect their learning in teaching. Research subjects are six prospective science teachers who are implementing "Program Pengalaman Lapangan" (PPL) in two junior secondary schools in Bandung, West Java, Indonesia. All of them were assigned by supervisor teachers to teach VII grade students on certain topic "heat and its transfer". Instruments used as a means of collecting data in this study is PaP-eRs. Collected PaP-eRs were then analyzed using PaP-eRs analysis format as instruments for analysis. The result of analyzing PaP-eRs indicates that learning activities, which narrated, involve initial activities, core activities and final activities. However, any activity, which is narrated just superficial as its big line so the narration cannot be, used as reflective learning. It indicates that PCK ability of prospective science teachers in creating narrative writing (PaP-eRs) for reflective learning is still low.
Harun, N A; Finlay, A Y; Salek, M S; Piguet, V
Outpatient discharge decision making in dermatology is poorly understood. To identify the influences on clinicians' thought processes when making discharge decisions in dermatology outpatient clinics. Forty clinicians from 11 National Health Service Trusts in England were interviewed. The interviews were audiorecorded, transcribed, coded and thematically analysed. The mean age of the clinicians was 48.8 years (range 33.0-67.0), 17 (43%) were men and 19 (48%) had > 20 years of clinical experience. One hundred and forty-eight influences were reported, with five main themes: (i) disease-based influences included type of diagnosis (100% of clinicians), guidelines (100%) and treatment needed (100%); (ii) clinician-based influences included the clinician's level of experience (100%), seniority (37%), emotional attitude (95%), 'gut feeling' (25%), personal attitude towards discharge (45%) and level of perception (100%); (iii) patient-based influences included patients' ability to cope with their disease (100%), wishes (70%), quality of life (32%), command of English (40%) and cultural background (25%); (iv) practice-based influences included good primary care (100%), secondary support structure (100%) and clinic capacity pressure (67%); (v) policy-based influences included pressure from hospital managers (57%) and an active discharge policy (7%). Fourteen (9%) influences were potentially inappropriate. This study has identified multiple factors influencing outpatient discharge decision making. This provides the basis for developing evidence-based training to improve discharge decision appropriateness. © 2015 British Association of Dermatologists.
Starke, Jens; Berkemer, Rainer
This report discusses the art of scientific modeling in general. Different modeling approaches and their investigation are outlined. The final issue is to elaborate on the preconditions for utilizing mathematical models for decision making. We are very much indebted to the participants of the wor...
Yeowell, G; Rooney, J; Goodwin, P C
To explore the disclosure decisions made in the workplace by physiotherapy staff with a specific learning difficulty (SpLD). An exploratory qualitative design was used, which was informed by the social model of disability. The research was undertaken in North West England. It is presented according to the Consolidated Criteria for Reporting Qualitative Research. A purposive sample of eight physiotherapists recognised as having a SpLD were recruited. All participants had studied on one of two programmes at a university in England between 2004-2012. Their NHS workplace experience was from across the UK. In-depth, semi-structured interviews were undertaken within the university setting or via telephone. Interviews lasted 40 to 70minutes and were digitally recorded. An interview guide was used to direct the interview. Interview data were transcribed verbatim and analysed using thematic analysis. Four participants were female. The mean number of years qualified as a physiotherapist was 4.5years (SD=2.27). Three themes were identified: 'Disclosing during the workplace application'; 'Positive about disabled people scheme'; 'Disclosing in the workplace'. Disclosure of dyslexia is a selective process and is a central dilemma in the lives of individuals who have a concealable stigmatised identity. As a consequence, physiotherapy staff with dyslexia may choose to conceal their disability and not disclose to their employer. In order for staff with dyslexia to get the support they need in the workplace, disclosure is recommended. A number of recommendations have been made to facilitate the disclosure process. Copyright © 2017 Chartered Society of Physiotherapy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Every day, decisions need to be made where time is a limiting factor. Regardless of situation, time constraints often place a premium on rapid decision-making. Researchers have been interested in studying this human behavior and understanding its underlying cognitive processes. In previous studies, scientists have believed that the cognitive processes underlying decision-making behavior were consistent with dual-process modes of thinking. Critics of dual-process theory question the vagueness ...
Woolf, Steven H; Krist, Alex H; Lafata, Jennifer Elston; Jones, Resa M; Lehman, Rebecca R; Hochheimer, Camille J; Sabo, Roy T; Frosch, Dominick L; Zikmund-Fisher, Brian J; Longo, Daniel R
Engaging patients to make informed choices is paramount but difficult in busy practices. This study sought to engage patients outside the clinical setting to better understand how they approach cancer screening decisions, including their primary concerns and their preferences for finalizing their decision. Twelve primary care practices offering patients an online personal health record invited eligible patients to complete a 17-item online interactive module. Among 11,458 registered users, invitations to complete the module were sent to adults aged 50-74 years who were overdue for colorectal cancer screening and to women aged 40-49 years and men aged 55-69 who had not undergone a recent mammogram or prostate-specific antigen test, respectively. The module was started by 2,355 patients and completed by 903 patients. Most respondents (76.8%) knew they were eligible for screening. Preferred next steps were talking to the clinician (76.6%), reading/research (28.6%), and consulting trusted friends/family (16.4%). Priority topics included how much screening improves life expectancy, comparative test performance, and the prevalence/health risks of the cancer. Leading fears were getting cancer/delayed detection (79.2%), abnormal results (40.5%), and testing complications (39.1%), the last referring to false test results, medical complications, or unnecessary treatments. Men eligible for prostate-specific antigen screening were more likely than women eligible for mammography to express concerns about testing complications and to prioritize weighing pros and cons over gut feelings (pengagement strategies. Copyright © 2017 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
... mining operations vary widely with respect to topography, climate, surrounding land uses, proximity to... surface exploration and mining operations. 23.5 Section 23.5 Public Lands: Interior Office of the Secretary of the Interior SURFACE EXPLORATION, MINING AND RECLAMATION OF LANDS § 23.5 Technical examination...
Full Text Available We previously reported that sympathetic activity was associated with exploration in decision-making indexed by entropy, which is a concept in information theory and indexes randomness of choices or the degree of deviation from sticking to recent experiences of gains and losses, and that activation of the anterior insula mediated this association. The current study aims to replicate and to expand these findings in a situation where contingency between options and outcomes is manipulated. Sixteen participants performed a stochastic decision-making task in which we manipulated a condition with low uncertainty of gain/loss (contingent-reward condition and a condition with high uncertainty of gain/loss (random-reward condition. Regional cerebral blood flow was measured by 15O-water positron emission tomography (PET, and cardiovascular parameters and catecholamine in the peripheral blood were measured, during the task. In the contingent-reward condition, norepinephrine as an index of sympathetic activity was positively correlated with entropy indicating exploration in decision-making. Norepinephrine was negatively correlated with neural activity in the right posterior insula, rostral anterior cingulate cortex, and dorsal pons, suggesting neural bases for detecting changes of bodily states. Furthermore, right anterior insular activity was negatively correlated with entropy, suggesting influences on exploration in decision-making. By contrast, in the random-reward condition, entropy correlated with activity in the dorsolateral prefrontal and parietal cortices but not with sympathetic activity. These findings suggest that influences of sympathetic activity on exploration in decision-making and its underlying neural mechanisms might be dependent on the degree of uncertainty of situations.
Kurnianingsih, Yoanna A; Mullette-Gillman, O'Dhaniel A
People choose differently when facing potential gains than when facing potential losses. Clear gross differences in decision making between gains and losses have been empirically demonstrated in numerous studies (e.g., framing effect, risk preference, loss aversion). However, theories maintain that there are strong underlying connections (e.g., reflection effect). We investigated the relationship between gains and losses decision making, examining risk preferences, and choice strategies (the reliance on option information) using a monetary gamble task with interleaved trials. For risk preferences, participants were on average risk averse in the gains domain and risk neutral/seeking in the losses domain. We specifically tested for a theoretically hypothesized correlation between individual risk preferences across the gains and losses domains (the reflection effect), but found no significant relationship in the predicted direction. Interestingly, despite the lack of reflected risk preferences, cross-domain risk preferences were still informative of individual choice behavior. For choice strategies, in both domains participants relied more heavily on the maximizing strategy than the satisficing strategy, with increased reliance on the maximizing strategy in the losses domain. Additionally, while there is no mathematical reliance between the risk preference and strategy metrics, within both domains there were significant relationships between risk preferences and strategies-the more participants relied upon the maximizing strategy the more risk neutral they were (equating value and utility maximization). These results demonstrate the complexity of gains and losses decision making, indicating the apparent contradiction that their underlying cognitive/neural processes are both dissociable and overlapping.
Greener, Judith R; Bass, Sarah Bauerle; Lepore, Stephen J
The proportion of women with unilateral breast cancer and no familial or genetic risk factors who elect contralateral prophylactic mastectomy (CPM) has grown dramatically, even in the absence of clear data demonstrating improved outcomes. To further extend the literature that addresses treatment decision-making, qualitative interviews were conducted with eleven women who considered CPM. A social ecological model of breast cancer treatment decision-making provided the conceptual framework, and grounded theory was used to identify the cognitive, psychosocial, and emotional influences motivating treatment choice. This research identified five themes that give context to women's decision-making experience: (1) variability in physician communication, (2) immediacy of the decision, (3) meaning of being proactive about treatment, (4) meaning of risk, and (5) women's relationship with their breasts. The results suggest that greater emphasis should be placed on a more nuanced understanding of patients' emotional reaction to breast cancer and managing the decision-making environment.
Carroget, Aurelie; Perrin, Charles; Sauquet, Eric; Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Chazot, Sebastien; Chauveau, Mathilde; Rouchy, Nathalie
Projected climate change could have important impacts on water availability in France by mid-21. century. The Explore 2070 prospective study, directed by the Ministry in charge of ecology, has thus highlighted the necessity to quantify and anticipate these changes, and to build adaptation strategies to limit their negative impacts on hydro-systems and human activities. This paper analyses how these works have contributed to the sensitization of water actors and to the reflection about climate change adaptation in France and to the reflection on adaptation to climate change in France
Magid, Molly; McIlvennan, Colleen K; Jones, Jaqueline; Nowels, Carolyn T; Allen, Larry A; Thompson, Jocelyn S; Matlock, Dan
Cognitive biases are psychological influences, which cause humans to make decisions, which do not seemingly maximize utility. For people with heart failure, the left ventricular assist device (LVAD) is a surgically implantable device with complex tradeoffs. As such, it represents an excellent model within which to explore cognitive bias in a real-world decision. We conducted a framework analysis to examine for evidence of cognitive bias among people deciding whether or not to get an LVAD. The aim of this study was to explore the influence of cognitive bias on the LVAD decision-making process. We analyzed previously conducted interviews of patients who had either accepted or declined an LVAD using a deductive, predetermined framework of cognitive biases. We coded and analyzed the interviews using an inductive-deductive framework approach, which also allowed for other themes to emerge. We interviewed a total of 22 heart failure patients who had gone through destination therapy LVAD decision making (15 who had accepted the LVAD and 7 who had declined). All patients appeared influenced by state dependence, where both groups described high current state of suffering, but the groups differed in whether they believed LVAD would relieve suffering or not. We found evidence of cognitive bias that appeared to influence decision making in both patient groups, but groups differed in terms of which cognitive biases were present. Among accepters, we found evidence of anchoring bias, availability bias, optimism bias, and affective forecasting. Among decliners, we found evidence of errors in affective forecasting. Medical decision making is often a complicated and multifaceted process that includes cognitive bias as well as other influences. It is important for clinicians to recognize that patients can be affected by cognitive bias, so they can better understand and improve the decision-making process to ensure that patients are fully informed. Published by Elsevier Inc.
It is common for people with advanced chronic illness to have many health care providers and many health care-related visits. It is also common, during those visits, to be asked whether attempts at cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) are desired, in the event of cardiac arrest. Although the question is common, the implications of a "yes" or a "no" may not be well understood. Although CPR can be a life-saving procedure, it is not always in the patient's best interest. This article discusses experiences with CPR of 2 older women (and their adult children) during their last years of life, and uses concepts from prospect theory to make suggestions for changes in the way health care providers and patients approach advance care planning including the CPR decision. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org.
Full Text Available Myung-Sun Kim,1 Bit-Na Kang,1 Jae Young Lim2 1Department of Psychology, Sungshin Women’s University, Seoul, Republic of Korea; 2Department of Psychiatry, Keyo Medical Foundation, Keyo Hospital, Uiwang, Republic of Korea Purpose: Decision-making is the process of forming preferences for possible options, selecting and executing actions, and evaluating the outcome. This study used the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT and the Prospect Valence Learning (PVL model to investigate deficits in risk-reward related decision-making in patients with chronic schizophrenia, and to identify decision-making processes that contribute to poor IGT performance in these patients. Materials and methods: Thirty-nine patients with schizophrenia and 31 healthy controls participated. Decision-making was measured by total net score, block net scores, and the total number of cards selected from each deck of the IGT. PVL parameters were estimated with the Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling scheme in OpenBugs and BRugs, its interface to R, and the estimated parameters were analyzed with the Mann–Whitney U-test.Results: The schizophrenia group received significantly lower total net scores compared to the control group. In terms of block net scores, an interaction effect of group × block was observed. The block net scores of the schizophrenia group did not differ across the five blocks, whereas those of the control group increased as the blocks progressed. The schizophrenia group obtained significantly lower block net scores in the fourth and fifth blocks of the IGT and selected cards from deck D (advantageous less frequently than the control group. Additionally, the schizophrenia group had significantly lower values on the utility-shape, loss-aversion, recency, and consistency parameters of the PVL model. Conclusion: These results indicate that patients with schizophrenia experience deficits in decision-making, possibly due to failure in learning the expected value of each deck
Scalia, Peter; Elwyn, Glyn; Barr, Paul; Song, Julia; Zisman-Ilani, Yaara; Lesniak, Monika; Mullin, Sarah; Kurek, Krzysztof; Bushell, Matt; Durand, Marie-Anne
Research on the implementation of patient decision aids to facilitate shared decision making in clinical settings has steadily increased across Western countries. A study which implements decision aids and measures their impact on shared decision making has yet to be conducted in the Eastern part of Europe. To study the use of Option Grid TM patient decision aids in a sample of Grupa LUX MED clinics in Warsaw, Poland, and measure their impact on shared decision making. We conducted a pre-post interventional study. Following a three-month period of usual care, clinicians from three Grupa LUX MED clinics received a one-hour training session on how to use three Option Grid TM decision aids and were provided with copies for use for four months. Throughout the study, all eligible patients were asked to complete the three-item CollaboRATE patient-reported measure of shared decision making after their clinical encounter. CollaboRATE enables patients to assess the efforts clinicians make to: (i) inform them about their health issues; (ii) listen to 'what matters most'; (iii) integrate their treatment preference in future plans. A Hierarchical Logistic Regression model was performed to understand which variables had an effect on CollaboRATE. 2,048 patients participated in the baseline phase; 1,889 patients participated in the intervention phase. Five of the thirteen study clinicians had a statistically significant increase in their CollaboRATE scores (pOption Grid TM helped some clinicians practice shared decision making as reflected in CollaboRATE scores, but most clinicians did not have a significant increase in their scores. Our study indicates that the effect of these interventions may be dependent on clinic contexts and clinician engagement. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier GmbH.
Kurnianingsih, Yoanna A.; Mullette-Gillman, O'Dhaniel A.
People choose differently when facing potential gains than when facing potential losses. Clear gross differences in decision making between gains and losses have been empirically demonstrated in numerous studies (e.g., framing effect, risk preference, loss aversion). However, theories maintain that there are strong underlying connections (e.g., reflection effect). We investigated the relationship between gains and losses decision making, examining risk preferences, and choice strategies (the reliance on option information) using a monetary gamble task with interleaved trials. For risk preferences, participants were on average risk averse in the gains domain and risk neutral/seeking in the losses domain. We specifically tested for a theoretically hypothesized correlation between individual risk preferences across the gains and losses domains (the reflection effect), but found no significant relationship in the predicted direction. Interestingly, despite the lack of reflected risk preferences, cross-domain risk preferences were still informative of individual choice behavior. For choice strategies, in both domains participants relied more heavily on the maximizing strategy than the satisficing strategy, with increased reliance on the maximizing strategy in the losses domain. Additionally, while there is no mathematical reliance between the risk preference and strategy metrics, within both domains there were significant relationships between risk preferences and strategies—the more participants relied upon the maximizing strategy the more risk neutral they were (equating value and utility maximization). These results demonstrate the complexity of gains and losses decision making, indicating the apparent contradiction that their underlying cognitive/neural processes are both dissociable and overlapping. PMID:26733779
Yoanna Arlina Kurnianingsih
Full Text Available People choose differently when facing potential gains than when facing potential losses. Clear gross differences in decision making between gains and losses have been empirically demonstrated in numerous studies (e.g. framing effect, risk preference, loss aversion. However, theories maintain that there are strong underlying connections (e.g. reflection effect. We investigated the relationship between gains and losses decision making, examining risk preferences and choice strategies (the reliance on option information using a monetary gamble task with interleaved trials. For risk preferences, participants were on average risk averse in the gains domain and risk neutral/seeking in the losses domain. We specifically tested for a theoretically hypothesized correlation between individual risk preferences across the gains and losses domains (the reflection effect, but found no significant relationship in the predicted direction. Interestingly, despite the lack of reflected risk preferences, cross-domain risk preferences were still informative of individual choice behavior. For choice strategies, in both domains participants relied more heavily on the maximizing strategy than the satisficing strategy, with increased reliance on the maximizing strategy in the losses domain. Additionally, while there is no mathematical reliance between the risk preference and strategy metrics, within both domains there were significant relationships between risk preferences and strategies – the more participants relied upon the maximizing strategy the more risk neutral they were (equating value and utility maximization. These results demonstrate the complexity of gains and losses decision making, indicating the apparent contradiction that their underlying cognitive/neural processes are both dissociable and overlapping.
Charles, Sonya; Wolf, Allison B
In this article, we discuss decision making during labor and delivery, specifically focusing on decision making around offering women a trial of labor after cesarean section (TOLAC). Many have discussed how humans are notoriously bad at assessing risks and how we often distort the nature of various risks surrounding childbirth. We will build on this discussion by showing that physicians make decisions around TOLAC not only based on distortions of risk, but also based on personal values (i.e. what level of risk are you comfortable with or what types of risks are you willing to take) rather than medical data (or at least medical data alone). As a result of this, we will further suggest that the party who is best epistemically situated to make decisions about TOLAC is the woman herself.
Carlos Francisco Simões Gomes
Full Text Available This article approaches the problem of selecting the non-dominated alternative for the destination of the natural gas reserves in the Mexilhão field in the Santos Basin, Brazil. Major aims of the case study reported here were to create a mechanism for assisting in the process of analyzing and selecting the best options for the destination of natural gas, and to enable the decision agent to choose the investment options best aligned to the expectations and objectives observed in the company strategies. The decision analysis employed in the study made use of the TODIM method and the THOR multicriteria decision support system. The application of both demonstrated that a decision analytic framework can be extremely useful when recommending options for upstream projects, owing to the fact that it can clearly identify the most important alternatives in the face of the scenarios tested and in relation to the criteria expressed.
Nelson Daishiro Yoshida
Full Text Available The use of future studies methodologies to provide information for decision making has been studied in this research. The objectives of the research are to identify the association of methods to different information categories, the importance of future studies, the frequency of use, the time horizon and users perceived satisfaction with the results. The research is implemented through a mixed-methods methodology, with a survey and case studies. Combined results have been analyzed in a complementary approach. Results fromthe sample indicate that there is an association of methods with information categories. Evaluation of the importance of future studies is high and depends on the decision type to be strategic or tactical,it also influences the frequency of use. Time horizon is associated to methods. The most used methods are the ones with high personal interaction, on the other hand, objective methods, e.g. mathematical techniques, are not among the most used. In the case studies results, methods based on judgment and opinion with high personal interaction are the most used. There were concerns about the need for more structure to deal with future studies in the company and also about its practice in accordance with methodological recommendations.
Traditional consumer decision-making models have long used quantitative research to address a link between emotional and rational behavior. However, little qualitative research has been conducted in the area of online shopping as an end-to-end experience. This study aims to provide a detailed phenomenological account of consumers’ online shopping experience and extend Mckinsey & Companys’s consumer decision journey model from an emotional perspective. Six semi-structured interviews and a focu...
Tickner, Sarah; Leman, Patrick J; Woodcock, Alison
This qualitative study explored parental decision-making about the DTaP/IPV/Hib 'five-in-one' vaccine. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 22 parents of babies aged between 4 and 13 weeks old, recruited from four practices in southern England. A modified Grounded Theory approach identified that although parents had some concerns, most complied with the recommended programme rather than making an informed decision. Other themes related to perceived importance of immunisation; beliefs about how immunisation works; trust; perceptions of vulnerability; feelings of guilt and responsibility; and practicalities. It is important to explore how parents' attitudes change over the preschool years and to develop ways of addressing uncertainties about immunisation, including the safety of combining antigens and the need for boosters.
Gushue, George V.; Scanlan, Kolone R. L.; Pantzer, Karen M.; Clarke, Christine P.
This study explores the relationship between the social cognitive construct of career decision-making self-efficacy and the outcome variables of vocational identity and career exploration behaviors in a sample of 72 urban African American high school students. The results indicate that higher levels of career decision-making self-efficacy are…
Stepanikova, Irena; Kukla, Lubomir
Objectives The role of perceived discrimination in postpartum depression is largely unknown. We investigate whether perceived discrimination reported in pregnancy contributes to postpartum depression, and whether its impact varies by education level. Methods Prospective data are a part of European Longitudinal Study of Pregnancy and Childhood, the Czech Republic. Surveys were collected in mid-pregnancy and at 6 months after delivery. Depression was measured using Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale. Generalized linear models were estimated to test the effects of perceived discrimination on postpartum depression. Results Multivariate models revealed that among women with low education, discrimination in pregnancy was prospectively associated with 2.43 times higher odds of postpartum depression (p discrimination was not linked to postpartum depression among women with high education. Conclusions Perceived discrimination is a risk factor for postpartum depression among women with low education. Screening for discrimination and socio-economic disadvantage during pregnancy could benefit women who are at risk for mental health problems.
Seth, Sarah Guerra; Goka, Thomas; Harbison, Andrea; Hollier, Lisa; Peterson, Susan; Ramondetta, Lois; Noblin, Sarah Jane
Given the complex array of emotional and medical issues that may arise when making a decision about amniocentesis, women may find that their spiritual and/or religious beliefs can comfort and assist their decision-making process. Prior research has suggested that Latinas' spiritual and/or religious beliefs directly influence their amniocentesis decision. A more intimate look into whether Latinas utilize their beliefs during amniocentesis decision-making may provide an opportunity to better understand their experience. The overall goal of this study was to describe the role structured religion and spirituality plays in Latinas' daily lives and to evaluate how religiosity and spirituality influences health care decisions, specifically in prenatal diagnosis. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with eleven women who were invited to describe their religious beliefs and thoughts while considering the option of amniocentesis. All participants acknowledged the influence of religious and/or spiritual beliefs in their everyday lives. Although the women sought comfort and found validation in their beliefs and in their faith in God's will during their amniocentesis decision-making process, results suggest the risk of procedure-related complications played more of a concrete role than their beliefs.
Smith, A.Y.; Armour-Brown, A.; Olsen, H.; Lundberg, B.; Niesen, P.L.
The commencement of a UNDP/IAEA uranium exploration project in Northern Greece in 1971 offered the opportunity to test and apply an exploration strategy based on a phased use of geochemical exploration methods. The paper reviews the exploration task, the strategy selected, and some results obtained. The project area (22000 km 2 ) was explored by car-borne survey, covering 15000 km of road and track. Concurrently, a stream sediment geochemical survey was begun which aimed at a nominal sample density of one sample per square kilometre. Samples were analysed for copper, lead, zinc, silver, cobalt, nickel, molybdenum, mercury and manganese, in addition to uranium. At each site, a general reading of radioactivity was made, and treated like another element analysis. The reconnaissance programme succeeded in delineating a number of important target areas, varying in size from a few to several hundred square kilometres with significant uranium potential. Follow-up and detailed surveys have been carried out over a number of these, including a sedimentary basin of continental deposits which have been found to contain occurrences of secondary uranium minerals, and two areas in which granitic bodies have been found to have fracture systems and secondary uranium mineralization of economic interest. In no case has sufficient work been yet done to prove economic deposits of uranium. The phased strategy used has, however, already been demonstrated to be effective in the environment of northern Greece. (author)
Stephenson, Amber L.; Heckert, Alex; Yerger, David B.
Branding in higher education has become increasingly used as a mechanism of differentiation among competitors to attract prospective students. Although branding in higher education is a common phenomenon, little work has been done assessing the college selection process using a brand choice framework. This paper aims to fill the gap by…
Falzer, Paul R
Treat-to-target (T2T) includes a target or goal, standard symptom assessment, and a treatment decision. In specialties that threat chronic pain, T2T is expected to be implemented collaboratively. The ability of patients to participate fully has been questioned, but these concerns have not been demonstrated empirically. The current study examined how patient self-assessed symptom measures and illness beliefs affect their willingness to change their current treatment. A total of 157 patients with rheumatoid arthritis completed a standard "disease activity" (DA) battery consisting of current joint pain, recent pain, daily functioning, and generality disability assessments, along with an illness belief questionnaire and a willingness to change measure. Data were collected at 2-month intervals over a 6-month period. Single and multiple influences on willingness to change were examined using linear mixed models. Willingness is strongly and directly associated with DA scores. Beliefs that were significant as single factors became nonsignificant once DA scores were introduced. The findings established a strong and consistent link between DA scores and willingness, and ruled out the prospect that illness beliefs mediate or moderate this relationship. It was also found that willingness to change is directly related to the number of significant self-reported symptoms. Concerns about the ability of patients to participate in a collaborative implementation of T2T were not substantiated. Future studies can examine the subtle interplay of goals, assessments, and treatment decisions and clarify outstanding issues about the practice of clinical decision making. © 2016 World Institute of Pain.
Parker, Patricia A; Peterson, Susan K; Bedrosian, Isabelle; Crosby, Melissa A; Shen, Yu; Black, Dalliah M; Babiera, Gildy; Kuerer, Henry M; Ying, Jun; Dong, Wenli; Cantor, Scott B; Brewster, Abenaa M
We prospectively examined the psychosocial predictors and the decision-making process regarding contralateral prophylactic mastectomy (CPM) among women with sporadic breast cancer. Increasing numbers of women with breast cancer are seeking CPM. Data are limited about the surgical decision-making process and the psychosocial factors that influence interest in CPM. Women with early-stage unilateral breast cancer (n = 117) were recruited before their first surgical visit at MD Anderson and completed questionnaires assessing knowledge of and interest in CPM and associated psychosocial factors. After the appointment, women and their surgeons completed questions about the extent that various surgical options (including CPM) were discussed; also, the women rated their perceived likelihood of having CPM and the surgeons rated the appropriateness of CPM. Before their first visit, 50% of women were moderately to extremely interested in CPM and 12 (10%) of women had CPM at the time of their primary breast cancer surgery. Less knowledge about breast cancer (P = 0.02) and greater cancer worry (P = 0.03) predicted interest in CPM. Greater cancer worry predicted who had CPM (P = 0.02). Interest in CPM before surgical visit and the likelihood of having CPM after the visit differed (P ≤ 0.001). Surgeons' rating of the appropriateness of CPM and the patient's reported likelihood of having CPM were not significantly different (P = 0.49). Interest in CPM is common among women with sporadic breast cancer. The informational and emotional aspects of CPM may affect the decision to have CPM and should be addressed when discussing surgical options.
Hansson, Helena; Lagerkvist, Carl Johan
This study integrated risk-benefit analysis with prospect theory with the overall objective of identifying the type of management behavior represented by farmers' choices of mastitis control options (MCOs). Two exploratory factor analyses, based on 163 and 175 Swedish farmers, respectively, highlighted attitudes to MCOs related to: (1) grouping cows and applying milking order to prevent spread of existing infection and (2) working in a precautionary way to prevent mastitis occurring. This was interpreted as being based on (1) reactive management behavior on detection of udder-health problems in individual cows and (2) proactive management behavior to prevent mastitis developing. Farmers' assessments of these MCOs were found to be based on asymmetrical evaluations of risks and benefits, suggesting that farmers' management behavior depends on their individual reference point. In particular, attitudes to MCOs related to grouping cows and applying milking order to prevent the spread of mastitis once infected cows were detected were stronger in the risk domain than in the benefit domain, in accordance with loss aversion. In contrast, attitudes to MCOs related to working in a precautionary way to prevent cows from becoming infected in the first place were stronger in the benefit domain than in the risk domain, in accordance with reverse loss aversion. These findings are of practical importance for farmers and agribusiness and in public health protection work to reduce the current extensive use of antibiotics in dairy herds. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.
... mining sites and mining operations vary widely with respect to topography, climate, surrounding land uses... and mining operations. 216.4 Section 216.4 Indians BUREAU OF INDIAN AFFAIRS, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR ENERGY AND MINERALS SURFACE EXPLORATION, MINING, AND RECLAMATION OF LANDS General Provisions § 216...
Full Text Available Natural gas resources is abundant in the Ordos Basin, where six gas fields with more than 100 billion cubic meters of gas reserves have been successively developed and proved, including Jingbian, Yulin, Zizhou, Wushenqi, Sulige and Shenmu. This study aims to summarize the fruitful results and functional practices achieved in the huge gas province exploration, which will be regarded as guidance and reference for the further exploration and development in this basin. Based on the past five decades' successful exploration practices made by PetroChina Changqing Oilfield Company, we first comb the presentation of geological theories at different historical stages as well as the breakthrough in the course. Then, we analyze a complete set of adaptive techniques obtained from the long-time technological research and conclude historical experiences and effective measures in terms of broadening exploration ideas, such as the fluvial delta reservoir-forming theory, giant tight gas reservoir-forming theory, the idea of sediment source system in the southern basin, etc., and innovating technical and management mechanism, such as all-digit seismic prediction, fine logging evaluation for gas formations, stimulation of tight sand reservoirs, flat project and benchmarking management, and so on.
The purpose of this study was (1) to introduce the exploratory method of decision tree analysis as a complementary alternative to current confirmatory methods used in scientometric prediction studies of research performance; and (2) as an illustrative case, to explore predictors of future research excellence at the individual level among 493 early career mathematicians in the sub-field of number theory between 1999 and 2010. A conceptual introduction to decision tree analysis is provided including an overview of the main steps of the tree-building algorithm and the statistical method of cross-validation used to evaluate the performance of decision tree models. A decision tree analysis of 493 mathematicians was conducted to find useful predictors and important relationships between variables in the context of predicting research excellence. The results suggest that the number of prestige journal publications and a topically diverse output are important predictors of future research excellence. Researchers with no prestige journal publications are very unlikely to produce excellent research. Limitations of decision three analysis are discussed. (Author)
Protiére, Christel; Baker, Rachel; Genre, Dominique; Goncalves, Anthony; Viens, Patrice
The past decades have seen advances in cancer treatments in terms of toxicity and side effects but progress in the treatment of advanced cancer has been modest. New drugs have emerged improving progression free survival but with little impact on overall survival, raising questions about the criteria on which to base decisions to grant marketing authorizations and about the authorization procedure itself. For decisions to be fair, transparent and accountable, it is necessary to consider the views of those with relevant expertise and experience. We conducted a Q-study to explore the views of a range of stakeholders in France, involving: 54 patients (18 months after diagnosis); 50 members of the general population; 27 oncologists; 19 healthcare decision makers; and 2 individuals from the pharmaceutical industry. Three viewpoints emerged, focussing on different dimensions entitled: 1) 'Quality of life (QoL), opportunity cost and participative democracy'; 2)'QoL and patient-centeredness'; and 3) 'Length of life'. Respondents from all groups were associated with each viewpoint, except for healthcare decision makers, who were only associated with the first one. Our results highlight plurality in the views of stakeholders, emphasize the need for transparency in decision making processes, and illustrate the importance of a re-evaluation of treatments for all 3 viewpoints. In the context of advanced cancer, our results suggest that QoL should be more prominent amongst authorization criteria, as it is a concern for 2 of the 3 viewpoints.
Hunt, C; Lewin, S
Increasing resources are being allocated to environmental health monitoring, especially for developing methods and collecting data to construct environmental health indicators (EHIs). Yet, little research has focused on understanding how communities and service providers make decisions with regard to environmental health priorities and the role of indicators in this process. This paper presents insights regarding local decision-making that arose from a project to test the feasibility of using community-based EHIs to facilitate communication between the providers and the recipients of environmental services in four developing-country cities. The results of the study indicate that decision-making for environmental health services is complex and iterative rather than rational and linear. Contextual and process factors play an important role. These factors include the morale of service providers, the extent of collaboration between service agencies, the priorities of different community groups and relations between service providers and communities. Scientific information, in the form of EHIs, did not appear to be a key element of decision-making in the settings studied. As tools, EHIs are unlikely to become part of the decision-making process unless they are integrated with local agendas and backed by strong local representation.
Hunt, Elizabeth A; Heine, Margaret; Shilkofski, Nicole S; Bradshaw, Jamie Haggerty; Nelson-McMillan, Kristen; Duval-Arnould, Jordan; Elfenbein, Ron
To assess whether access to a voice activated decision support system (VADSS) containing video clips demonstrating resuscitation manoeuvres was associated with increased compliance with American Heart Association Basic Life Support (AHA BLS) guidelines. This was a prospective, randomised controlled trial. Subjects with no recent clinical experience were randomised to the VADSS or control group and participated in a 5-min simulated out-of-hospital cardiopulmonary arrest with another 'bystander'. Data on performance for predefined outcome measures based on the AHA BLS guidelines were abstracted from videos and the simulator log. 31 subjects were enrolled (VADSS 16 vs control 15), with no significant differences in baseline characteristics. Study subjects in the VADSS were more likely to direct the bystander to: (1) perform compressions to ventilations at the correct ratio of 30:2 (VADSS 15/16 (94%) vs control 4/15 (27%), p=compressor versus ventilator roles after 2 min (VADSS 12/16 (75%) vs control 2/15 (13%), p=0.001). The VADSS group took longer to initiate chest compressions than the control group: VADSS 159.5 (±53) s versus control 78.2 (±20) s, pcontrol 75.4 (±8.0), p=0.35. The use of an audio and video assisted decision support system during a simulated out-of-hospital cardiopulmonary arrest prompted lay rescuers to follow cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) guidelines but was also associated with an unacceptable delay to starting chest compressions. Future studies should explore: (1) if video is synergistic to audio prompts, (2) how mobile technologies may be leveraged to spread CPR decision support and (3) usability testing to avoid unintended consequences. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.
Full Text Available Decision Support Systems (DSSs are computer-based information systems for providing necessary supports for business or organizational decision-making activities. DSSs often serve the management, operations, and planning levels of all organizations and help to make decisions, which may be rapidly changing and not easily achieved in advance. This paper presents an empirical investigation to find important factors influencing DSSs. The proposed study designs a questionnaire in Likert scale consists of 36 questions, distributes it among 213 employees who work for different offices in municipality of Tehran, Iran. Cronbach alpha is calculated as 0.872. In addition, Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy and Approx. Chi-Square are 0.782 and 1014.521, respectively. Based on the results of our survey, we have derived three factors including system, analysis and transaction.
Phillips, Laura L.; Allen, Rebecca S.; Harris, Grant M.; Presnell, Andrew H.; DeCoster, Jamie; Cavanaugh, Ronald
Purpose: With the rapid growth in the older inmate population and the economic impact of end-of-life treatments within the cash-strapped prison system, consideration should be given to inmate treatment preferences. We examined end-of-life treatment preferences and days of desired life for several health scenarios among male inmates incarcerated primarily for murder. Design and Methods: Inmates over the age of 45 who passed a cognitive screening completed face-to-face interviews (N = 94; mean age = 57.7; SD = 10.68). Results: We found a 3-way interaction indicating that the effect of parole expectation on desire for life-sustaining treatment varied by race/ethnicity and treatment. Minority inmates desired cardiopulmonary resuscitation or feeding tubes only if they believed that they would be paroled. The model predicting desire for palliative care was not significant. Future days of desired life were related to prospective health condition, fear of death, negative affect, and trust in prison health care. Caucasian inmates expressed a desire for more days of life out of prison, whereas minority inmates did not differ in days of desired life either in or out of prison. Minorities wanted more days of life than Caucasians but only if they believed that they would be paroled. Implications: End-of-life care for the burgeoning inmate population is costly, and active life-sustaining treatments may not be desired under certain conditions. Specifically, expectation of parole but not current functional ability interacts with future illness condition in explaining inmates’ desire for active treatment or days of desired life in the future. PMID:21593007
Aeshah A. Alabdullatif
Full Text Available The proliferation of the internet has helped many businesses to attract potential customers from traditional to the online channel. The customers’ decision making on the online channel is affected by various factors such as other customer reviews, website quality, and property characteristics as well as customers personal profile. In this context, this study investigates the role of online customer reviews and key elements of the reviews page, particularly the elements that are poorly investigated in previous, as well as property characteristics in customers’ online hotel booking decision. A conceptual model has been proposed to measure the impact of these factors on customers decision making. The model is empirically tested with a data obtained from customers of booking.com having various backgrounds and nationalities. Structural Equation Modelling using SmartPLS 3.2 has been used to test the relationships in the suggested model. The results show a significant impact of online review factors such as filters, quality, quantity, recency, valence along with property characteristics on customers booking decision. The study also confirms the moderating effects of Gender and Travel Purpose on some of the proposed relationships in the conceptual model. The paper concludes by mentioning the limitations and recommendations for future work as well as implications for the academicians and managers.
Jordan, Jeremy D
... with. The techniques are applied to a combat scenario, a football game, and a terrorist resource allocation problem, providing a decision maker with the best possible strategy given the information available to him. The results are intuitive and exemplify the benefits of using the methods.
Hsu, Hsiu-Yueh; Lien, Yu-Fen; Lou, Jiunn-Horng; Chen, Sheng-Hwang; Wang, Ruey-Hsia
Traditional health education may not provide adequate sexual information to female adolescents. Sexual health education for female adolescents broadens opportunities for nurses to help female adolescents adopt appropriate sexual attitudes and make appropriate decisions. The purpose of this study was to understand the effect of sexual empowerment on sexual decision making in female adolescents. Twenty-nine female students with steady boyfriends were invited to participate in a sexual empowerment course. Course activities specifically related to sexual empowerment were audio-tape-recorded. Dialogue content was analyzed, and content provided by each study participant was reconfirmed in face-to-face interviews to understand the entire empowerment process in terms of how such may affect responses and to assess the possibility of correctly reinterpreting findings during the member check process. This study also took into consideration degrees of reliability and rigorousness. The four themes found to underlie participant perceptions of their sexual empowerment to make sex-related decisions were as follows: (a) proactively seeking sexual knowledge, (b) reexamining relationships with boyfriends, (c) the right to say "no" and to engage in self-protection, and (d) the need to change sexual attitudes and behaviors. Using the peer group intervention in sexual empowerment may positively impact sexual health decision making in adolescent girls. Nursing professionals may consider peer group intervention as a sexual empowering method in healthcare.
Martinez-Hicks, Laura M.
This is a constructivist grounded theory study investigating how elementary principals approach the student retention decision process in their schools. Twenty-two elementary principals participated in the study using a selective or snowball sampling method. Principals worked in one of three districts in a mid-Atlantic state and had experience as…
Den Heijer, A.C.
Managing contemporary campuses and taking decisions that will impact on those of tomorrow is a complex task for universities worldwide. It involves strategic, financial, functional and physical aspects as well as multiple stakeholders. This article summarises the conclusions of a comprehensive PhD
Because the development of Taiwanese Massive Open Online Course (MOOCs) websites is at this moment full of vitality, this research employs a series of analytical cross-measurements of Quality Function Deployment method of House of Quality (QFD-HOQ) model and Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methodology to cross-evaluate the weighted…
Sypher, D.R.; Brereton, I.M.; Wiseman, H.M.; Hollis, B.L.; Travaglione, B.C.
Read-only-memory-based (ROM-based) quantum computation (QC) is an alternative to oracle-based QC. It has the advantages of being less 'magical', and being more suited to implementing space-efficient computation (i.e., computation using the minimum number of writable qubits). Here we consider a number of small (one- and two-qubit) quantum algorithms illustrating different aspects of ROM-based QC. They are: (a) a one-qubit algorithm to solve the Deutsch problem; (b) a one-qubit binary multiplication algorithm; (c) a two-qubit controlled binary multiplication algorithm; and (d) a two-qubit ROM-based version of the Deutsch-Jozsa algorithm. For each algorithm we present experimental verification using nuclear magnetic resonance ensemble QC. The average fidelities for the implementation were in the ranges 0.9-0.97 for the one-qubit algorithms, and 0.84-0.94 for the two-qubit algorithms. We conclude with a discussion of future prospects for ROM-based quantum computation. We propose a four-qubit algorithm, using Grover's iterate, for solving a miniature 'real-world' problem relating to the lengths of paths in a network
Kretschmer, Anett; Voigt, Babett; Friedrich, Sylva; Pfeiffer, Kathrin; Kliegel, Matthias
The present study investigated time-based prospective memory (PM) during the transition from kindergarten/preschool to school age and applied mediation models to test the impact of executive functions (working memory, inhibitory control) and time monitoring on time-based PM development. Twenty-five preschool (age: M = 5.75, SD = 0.28) and 22 primary school children (age: M = 7.83, SD = 0.39) participated. To examine time-based PM, children had to play a computer-based driving game requiring them to drive a car on a road without hitting others cars (ongoing task) and to refill the car regularly according to a fuel gauge, which serves as clock equivalent (PM task). The level of gas that was still left in the fuel gauge was not displayed on the screen and children had to monitor it via a button press (time monitoring). Results revealed a developmental increase in time-based PM performance from preschool to school age. Applying the mediation models, only working memory was revealed to influence PM development. Neither inhibitory control alone nor the mediation paths leading from both executive functions to time monitoring could explain the link between age and time-based PM. Thus, results of the present study suggest that working memory may be one key cognitive process driving the developmental growth of time-based PM during the transition from preschool to school age.
Rare earth elements (REE) have a wide range of applications including nuclear and the REE bearing minerals occur in varied geological environments.The commercial rare earth bearing minerals are monazite ((Ce,La,Pr,Nd,Th,Y)PO 4 ), xenotime (YPO 4 ), bastnasite ((Ce,La,Y)CO 3 F) and pyrochlore ((Na,Ca) 2 Nb 2 O 6 (OH,F) which occur either as placer concentrations or in tracer quantities in rocks. While Monazite contains dominantly LREE, Xenotime and Bastnasite are richer in HREE. The exploration and evaluation of these two types of occurrences follow different methodologies
Full Text Available Abstract Background Currently ambulatory patients break one in four tablets before ingestion. Roughly 10% of them are not suitable for splitting because they lack score lines or because enteric or modified release coating is destroyed impairing safety and effectiveness of the medication. We assessed impact and safety of computerised decision support on the inappropriate prescription of split tablets. Methods We performed a prospective intervention study in a 1680-bed university hospital. Over a 15-week period we evaluated all electronically composed medication regimens and determined the fraction of tablets and capsules that demanded inappropriate splitting. In a subsequent intervention phase of 15 weeks duration for 10553 oral drugs divisibility characteristics were indicated in the system. In addition, an alert was generated and displayed during the prescription process whenever the entered dosage regimen demanded inappropriate splitting (splitting of capsules, unscored tablets, or scored tablets unsuitable for the intended fragmentation. Results During the baseline period 12.5% of all drugs required splitting and 2.7% of all drugs (257/9545 required inappropriate splitting. During the intervention period the frequency of inappropriate splitting was significantly reduced (1.4% of all drugs (146/10486; p = 0.0008. In response to half of the alerts (69/136 physicians adjusted the medication regimen. In the other half (67/136 no corrections were made although a switch to more suitable drugs (scored tablets, tablets with lower strength, liquid formulation was possible in 82% (55/67. Conclusion This study revealed that computerised decision support can immediately reduce the frequency of inappropriate splitting without introducing new safety hazards.
Ansquer, Catherine; Scigliano, Sonia; Mirallie, Eric; Taieb, David; Brunaud, Laurent; Sebag, Frederic; Leux, Christophe; Drui, Delphine; Dupas, Benoit; Renaudin, Karine; Kraeber-Bodere, Francoise
This prospective multicentre study assesses the usefulness of FDG PET/CT in characterizing and making the therapeutic decision concerning adrenal tumours that are suspicious or indeterminate in nature after conventional examinations (CE). Seventy-eight patients (37 men, 41 women, 81 adrenal lesions) underwent FDG PET/CT after CE including CT scan, biological tests and optionally 131 I-metaiodobenzylguanidine (MIBG) and/or 131 I-norcholesterol scans. FDG adrenal uptake exceeding that of the liver was considered positive. PET results were not decisive. Surgery was discussed when at least one of the following criteria was found during CE: size >3 cm, spontaneous attenuation value >10 HU, heterogeneous aspect, abnormal MIBG or norcholesterol scan or hormonal hypersecretion. Following the gold standard (histology analysis or ≥9 months follow-up), 49 lesions potentially qualified for surgery (malignant = 27, benign secreting = 22) and 32 benign non-secreting lesions did not. PET was negative in 97% of non-surgical lesions and positive in 73% of potentially surgical ones which included all the malignant lesions, except 3 renal cell metastases, and 12 of 22 benign secreting lesions. The negative predictive value for malignancy was 93% (41/44) and positive predictive value for detecting surgical lesions was 97% (36/37). A high FDG uptake (maximum standardized uptake value ≥ 10) was highly predictive of malignancy. Adrenal FDG uptake is a good indicator of malignancy and/or of secreting lesions and should lead one to discuss surgery. If there is no prior history of poorly FDG-avid cancer, the absence of FDG uptake should avoid unnecessary removal of benign adrenal lesions. (orig.)
Lehmkuhl, Markus; Peters, Hans Peter
Based on 21 individual case studies, this article inventories the ways journalism deals with scientific uncertainty. The study identifies the decisions that impact a journalist's perception of a truth claim as unambiguous or ambiguous and the strategies to deal with uncertainty that arise from this perception. Key for understanding journalistic action is the outcome of three evaluations: What is the story about? How shall the story be told? What type of story is it? We reconstructed the strategies to overcome journalistic decision-making uncertainty in those cases in which they perceived scientific contingency as a problem. Journalism deals with uncertainty by way of omission, by contrasting the conflicting messages or by acknowledging the problem via the structure or language. One finding deserves particular mention: The lack of focus on scientific uncertainty is not only a problem of how journalists perceive and communicate but also a problem of how science communicates. © The Author(s) 2016.
Full Text Available This paper explores the impact of prospect theory based commuter’s residential location choice on the design problem of a rail transit line located in a monocentric city. A closed-form social welfare maximization model is proposed, with special consideration given to prospect theory based commuter’s residential location choice over years. Commuters are assumed to make residential location choice by a trade-off between daily housing rent and generalized travel cost to minimize their prospect values. The solutions properties of the proposed model are explored and compared analytically. It is found that overestimation exists for the optimal solutions of rail line length, headway, and fare based on traditional utility theory, compared with the optimal solutions of the proposed prospect theory based model. A numerical example is given to illustrate the properties of the proposed model.
Soo, Jason; Brett-MacLean, Pamela; Cave, Marie-Therese; Oswald, Anna
Medical learners face many challenging transitions. We prospectively explored students' perceptions of their upcoming transition to clerkship and their future professional selves. In 2013, 160/165 end-of-second-year medical students wrote narrative reflections and 79/165 completed a questionnaire on their perceptions of their upcoming transition to clerkship. Narratives were separately analyzed by four authors and then discussed to identify a final thematic framework using parsimonious category construction. We identified two overarching themes: (1) "Looking back": experiences which had helped students feel prepared for clerkship with subthemes focused on of patient care, shadowing, classroom teaching and the pre-clerkship years as foundational knowledge, (2) "Looking forward": anticipating the clerkship experience and the journey of becoming a physician with subthemes focused on death and dying, hierarchy, work-life balance, interactions with patients, concerns about competency and career choice. Questionnaire data revealed incongruities around expectations of minimal exposure to death and dying, little need for independent study and limited direct patient responsibility. We confirmed that internal transformations are happening in contemplative time even before clerkship. By prospectively exploring pre-clerkship students' perceptions of the transition to clerkship training we identified expectations and misconceptions that could be addressed with future curricular interventions. While students are aware of and anticipating their learning needs it is not as clear that they realise how much their future learning will depend on their own inner resources. We suggest that more attention be paid to professional identity formation and the development of the physician as a person during these critical transitions.
Mills, Andrew; Phadke, Amol; Wiser, Ryan
The Western Renewable Energy Zone (WREZ) initiative brings together a diverse set of voices to develop data, tools, and a unique forum for coordinating transmission expansion in the Western Interconnection. In this paper we use a new tool developed in the WREZ initiative to evaluate possible renewable resource selection and transmission expansion decisions. We evaluate these decisions under a number of alternative future scenarios centered on meeting 33% of the annual load in the Western Interconnection with new renewable resources located within WREZ-identified resource hubs. Our analysis finds that wind energy is the largest source of renewable energy procured to meet the 33% RE target across nearly all scenarios analyzed (38-65%). Solar energy is almost always the second largest source (14-41%). We find several load zones where wind energy is the least cost resource under a wide range of sensitivity scenarios. Load zones in the Southwest, on the other hand, are found to switch between wind and solar, and therefore to vary transmission expansion decisions, depending on uncertainties and policies that affect the relative economics of each renewable option. Further, we find that even with total transmission expenditures of $17-34 billion these costs still represent just 10-19% of the total delivered cost of renewable energy. - Research highlights: → We describe a new tool to evaluate transmission expansion and renewable resource selection. → We examine a scenario where 33% of the energy in the Western Interconnection comes from renewables. → Wind energy provides the majority of new renewable energy. → For some loads, the decision to procure wind and the required transmission is insensitive to assumptions. → For other loads, assumptions can shift toward more solar, which also changes the needed transmission.
Song, Hanqun; Sparks, Beverley; Wang, Ying
The young Chinese travel market is becoming increasingly significant in domestic and international tourism. However, there is limited research on the market. This study examines the decision-making processes of young Chinese travellers, with a particular interest in disagreement prevention and resolution. On the basis of interviews with 25 young Chinese travellers, this study found that while a small number of travellers did not perceive any disagreement, or did not voice their disagreement, ...
Mills, Andrew D.; Phadke, Amol A.; Wiser, Ryan H.
The Western Renewable Energy Zone (WREZ) initiative brings together a diverse set of voices to develop data, tools, and a unique forum for coordinating transmission expansion in the Western Interconnection. In this paper we use a new tool developed in the WREZ initiative to evaluate possible renewable resource selection and transmission expansion decisions. We evaluate these decisions under a number of alternative future scenarios centered on meeting 33percent of the annual load in the Western Interconnection with new renewable resources located within WREZ-identified resource hubs. Our analysis finds that wind energy is the largest source of renewable energy procured to meet the 33percent RE target across nearly all scenarios analyzed (38-65percent). Solar energy is almost always the second largest source (14-41percent). We find several load zones where wind energy is the least cost resource under a wide range of sensitivity scenarios. Load zones in the Southwest, on the other hand, are found to switch between wind and solar, and therefore to vary transmission expansion decisions, depending on uncertainties and policies that affect the relative economics of each renewable option. Further, we find that even with total transmission expenditures of $17-34 billion these costs still represent just 10-19percent of the total delivered cost of renewable energy.
Armstrong, Rebecca; Waters, Elizabeth; Moore, Laurence; Dobbins, Maureen; Pettman, Tahna; Burns, Cate; Swinburn, Boyd; Anderson, Laurie; Petticrew, Mark
The value placed on types of evidence within decision-making contexts is highly dependent on individuals, the organizations in which the work and the systems and sectors they operate in. Decision-making processes too are highly contextual. Understanding the values placed on evidence and processes guiding decision-making is crucial to designing strategies to support evidence-informed decision-making (EIDM). This paper describes how evidence is used to inform local government (LG) public health decisions. The study used mixed methods including a cross-sectional survey and interviews. The Evidence-Informed Decision-Making Tool (EvIDenT) survey was designed to assess three key domains likely to impact on EIDM: access, confidence, and organizational culture. Other elements included the usefulness and influence of sources of evidence (people/groups and resources), skills and barriers, and facilitators to EIDM. Forty-five LGs from Victoria, Australia agreed to participate in the survey and up to four people from each organization were invited to complete the survey (n = 175). To further explore definitions of evidence and generate experiential data on EIDM practice, key informant interviews were conducted with a range of LG employees working in areas relevant to public health. In total, 135 responses were received (75% response rate) and 13 interviews were conducted. Analysis revealed varying levels of access, confidence and organizational culture to support EIDM. Significant relationships were found between domains: confidence, culture and access to research evidence. Some forms of evidence (e.g. community views) appeared to be used more commonly and at the expense of others (e.g. research evidence). Overall, a mixture of evidence (but more internal than external evidence) was influential in public health decision-making in councils. By comparison, a mixture of evidence (but more external than internal evidence) was deemed to be useful in public health decision
Hamelinck, Victoria C; Bastiaannet, Esther; Pieterse, Arwen H; van de Velde, Cornelis J H; Liefers, Gerrit-Jan; Stiggelbout, Anne M
Older patients are believed to prefer a more passive role in treatment decision making, but studies reporting this relation were conducted over a decade ago or were retrospective. We prospectively compared younger (40-64 years) versus older (≥ 65 years) breast cancer patients' preferences for decision-making roles and their perceived actual roles. A prospective multicenter study was conducted in Leiden, The Hague, and Tilburg over a 2-year period. Early-stage breast cancer patients were surveyed about their preferred and perceived decision-making roles (active, shared, or passive) concerning surgery type (breast-conserving vs. mastectomy) (n = 74), adjuvant chemotherapy (aCT, n = 43), and adjuvant hormonal therapy (aHT, n = 39). For all decisions, both age groups most frequently preferred a shared role before consultation, except for decisions about aHT, for which younger patients more commonly preferred an active role. The proportion of patients favoring an active or passive role in each decision was lower for the older than the younger patients, but none of the differences was significant. Regarding perceived actual roles, both groups most frequently reported an active role in the surgical decision after consultation. In deciding about both aCT and aHT, a larger proportion of older patients perceived having had a passive role compared to younger patients, and a greater proportion of younger patients perceived having been active. Again, differences were not statistically significant. Most older patients preferred to decide together with their clinician, but preferences varied widely. Older patients more often than younger patients perceived they had not been involved in decisions about systemic therapy. Clinicians should invite all patients to participate in decision making and elicit their preferred role. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Full Text Available This paper aims to identify conversational interaction patterns in pediatrics with a focus on the shared decision-making process and dialogue about emotions in doctor–patient relationships. We documented conversations in 163 visits by 168 children in pediatric primary care; we observed, audiorecordered, transcribed and analyzed them with specific instruments of analysis of doctor patient relationship. Our survey was conducted in four pediatric primary care practices and 15 health providers were involved. The data collection period lasted three months and was undertaken twice a week on days. We analyzed visits with Verona Coding Definitions of Emotional Sequences (VR-CoDES and Observing Patient Involvement in Shared Decision Making (OPTION instruments. Frequencies of emotions’ signals (cues/concerns obtained using VR-CoDES were analyzed and compared with the OPTION ratings. We documented 318 cues/concerns for parents and 167 for children. The relationship between cues/concerns and Healthcare Providers responses was strongest in dialogues between parents and pediatricians. The conversational patterns focused on the procedures of the care, with little opportunities of dialogue about emerging emotions. We also observed limited possibilities for participant involvement, especially by children, due to several difficulties integrating dialogue about emotions and concordance processes. The conversations seemed to be characterized by rarity of shared decision making or attention to the informational value of children’s emotions. It could be useful to implement psychological interventions to achieve an enrichment of the dialogue between participants, helping them to incorporate emotions into conversations and to recognize decisional competences, necessary to concordance processes.
К. М. Ермохин
Full Text Available Traditionally it is believed that the effect of induced polarization is an interfering factor for the measurement of electromagnetic fields and their interpretation during conducting works using magnetotelluric sounding and geomag-netic-variation profiling methods. A new method is proposed for isolating the effects of induced polarization during geomagnetic-variation profiling aimed at searching for hydrocarbon deposits on the basis of phase measurements during the conduct of geomagnetic-variation profiling. The phenomenon of induced polarization is proposed to be used as a special exploration mark for deep-lying hydrocarbon deposits. The traditional method of induced polarization uses artificial field sources, the powers of which are principally insufficient to reach depths of 3-5 km, which leads to the need to search for alternative - natural sources in the form of telluric and magnetotelluric fields. The proposed method makes it possible to detect and interpret the effects of induced polarization from deep-seated oil and gas reservoirs directly, without relying on indirect signs.
Thuan, Nguyen Huy; Dhakal, Dipesh; Pokhrel, Anaya Raj; Chu, Luan Luong; Van Pham, Thi Thuy; Shrestha, Anil; Sohng, Jae Kyung
Streptomyces peucetius ATCC 27952 produces two major anthracyclines, doxorubicin (DXR) and daunorubicin (DNR), which are potent chemotherapeutic agents for the treatment of several cancers. In order to gain detailed insight on genetics and biochemistry of the strain, the complete genome was determined and analyzed. The result showed that its complete sequence contains 7187 protein coding genes in a total of 8,023,114 bp, whereas 87% of the genome contributed to the protein coding region. The genomic sequence included 18 rRNA, 66 tRNAs, and 3 non-coding RNAs. In silico studies predicted ~ 68 biosynthetic gene clusters (BCGs) encoding diverse classes of secondary metabolites, including non-ribosomal polyketide synthase (NRPS), polyketide synthase (PKS I, II, and III), terpenes, and others. Detailed analysis of the genome sequence revealed versatile biocatalytic enzymes such as cytochrome P450 (CYP), electron transfer systems (ETS) genes, methyltransferase (MT), glycosyltransferase (GT). In addition, numerous functional genes (transporter gene, SOD, etc.) and regulatory genes (afsR-sp, metK-sp, etc.) involved in the regulation of secondary metabolites were found. This minireview summarizes the genome-based genome mining (GM) of diverse BCGs and genome exploration (GE) of versatile biocatalytic enzymes, and other enzymes involved in maintenance and regulation of metabolism of S. peucetius. The detailed analysis of genome sequence provides critically important knowledge useful in the bioengineering of the strain or harboring catalytically efficient enzymes for biotechnological applications.
Rosenberg, Shoshana M; Greaney, Mary L; Patenaude, Andrea F; Sepucha, Karen R; Meyer, Meghan E; Partridge, Ann H
Young women with unilateral breast cancer are increasingly choosing contralateral prophylactic mastectomy (CPM), despite its limited medical benefit for most women. The purpose of this study was to better understand this choice through a qualitative exploration of surgical decision-making in young survivors, including how issues particular to younger women affected their decision and the post-surgical experience. Women age ≤ 40 years with stage 0 to III breast cancer, 1 to 3 years from diagnosis who had undergone breast cancer surgery were recruited to participate. Four focus groups were conducted: 2 with women who had bilateral mastectomy and 2 with women who kept their contralateral breast. Focus groups were recorded and transcribed with identifiers removed. Emergent themes were identified by thematic content analysis using NVivo 11. Of the 20 participants, median age at diagnosis was 37 years. Emergent themes were categorized into the following domains: (1) emotions/feelings surrounding surgery/decision about surgery; (2) factors affecting the decision; (3) communication and interaction with the healthcare team; (4) impact on post-surgical life and recovery; and (5) support needs. Young women who chose CPM often were concerned about a future breast event, despite this low risk, suggesting some gain peace of mind by choosing CPM. Young survivors also had many physical and emotional concerns after surgery for which they did not always feel prepared. Informational resources and decision aids may enhance patient-doctor communication and help young survivors better understand risk and manage expectations surrounding short and longer-term physical and emotional effects after surgery. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Payne, J.; Bell, J. W.; Calvin, W. M.
The Gabbs Valley prospect in west-central Nevada is a potential blind geothermal resource system. Possible structural controls on this system were investigated using high-resolution LiDAR, low sun-angle aerial (LSA) photography, exploratory fault trenching and a shallow temperature survey. Active Holocene faults have previously been identified at 37 geothermal systems with indication of temperatures greater than 100° C in the western Nevada region. Active fault controls in Gabbs Valley include both Holocene and historical structures. Two historical earthquakes occurring in 1932 and 1954 have overlapping surface rupture patterns in Gabbs Valley. Three active fault systems identified through LSA and LiDAR mapping have characteristics of Basin and Range normal faulting and Walker Lane oblique dextral faulting. The East Monte Cristo Mountains fault zone is an 8.5 km long continuous NNE striking, discrete fault with roughly 0.5 m right-normal historic motion and 3 m vertical Quaternary separation. The Phillips Wash fault zone is an 8.2 km long distributed fault system striking NE to N, with Quaternary fault scarps of 1-3 m vertical separation and a 500 m wide graben adjacent to the Cobble Cuesta anticline. This fault displays ponded drainages, an offset terrace riser and right stepping en echelon fault patterns suggestive of left lateral offset, and fault trenching exposed non-matching stratigraphy typical of a significant component of lateral offset. The unnamed faults of Gabbs Valley are a 10.6 km long system of normal faults striking NNE and Quaternary scarps are up to 4 m high. These normal faults largely do not have historic surface rupture, but a small segment of 1932 rupture has been identified. A shallow (2 m deep) temperature survey of 80 points covering roughly 65 square kilometers was completed. Data were collected over approximately 2 months, and continual base station temperature measurements were used to seasonally correct temperature measurements. A 2
Hyde, Melissa K.; White, Katherine M.
The authors explored common beliefs and preferences for posthumous and living organ donation in Australia where organ donation rates are low and little research exists. Content analysis of discussions revealed the advantage of prolonging/saving life whereas disadvantages differed according to donation context. A range of people/groups perceived to…
Markiewicz, Katarzyna; Van Til, Janine; IJzerman, Maarten
To improve successful development and clinical use of medical technologies, it is suggested that manufacturers should start collecting evidence on devices effectiveness and eficiency early in their development. The aim of this study was to explore whether and how Dutch manufacturers perform an early
Evagorou, Maria; Jimenez-Aleixandre, Maria Pilar; Osborne, Jonathan
A problem that is still unexplored in the field of socioscientific issues (SSI) and that was explored in this study is how different students decide upon a SSI they are discussing, how their justifications change during the instruction and how they use (or not) the evidence from the learning environment to support their justifications. For the…
McGowan, Brian L.
This study explores how race influenced African American men's interpersonal relationships with other men at a predominantly White institution. The use of both semi-structured and photo-elicitation interview formats provided participants an opportunity to reflect on their precollege experiences, identity, and relationships. Two categories emerged…
Ortiz-Bayliss, José Carlos; Amaya, Ivan; Conant-Pablos, Santiago Enrique; Terashima-Marín, Hugo
When solving constraint satisfaction problems (CSPs), it is a common practice to rely on heuristics to decide which variable should be instantiated at each stage of the search. But, this ordering influences the search cost. Even so, and to the best of our knowledge, no earlier work has dealt with how first variable orderings affect the overall cost. In this paper, we explore the cost of finding high-quality orderings of variables within constraint satisfaction problems. We also study differen...
A Monte Carlo simulation system was used to estimate potential supply of roll-type deposits. The system takes a given uranium-endowment probability distribution and aims at two major and interrelated objectives: (1) to design a system that estimates potential supply even when prices are much higher than previous or current prices; and (2) to account fully for the cost of discovering and mining the individual mineral deposits contained in given endowment. Achievement of these objectives constitutes the major contribution of this study. To accomplish them, the system considers: cost of risk, return on investment, cost of failures during the search process, discovery depletion, and effect of physical characteristics of the deposits on exploration and mining costs. It also considers that when economic conditions, such as product price, are outside historical experience, existing behavioral rules - exploration drilling density, stopping rules, minimum attractive deposit size and grade, and mining parameters - are irrelevant. The system architecture is general and can be used with an exploration model prepared specifically for other minerals
After over 30 years' development, uranium resources exploration work in China has resulted in the discovery of more than 10 economic types of uranium deposits in 23 provinces (regions) of the whole country and large quantities of uranium reserves have been submitted which guarantee the development of nuclear industry in China. However, characteristics such as smaller size of deposits and ore bodies, and lower ore grade of discovered China's uranium deposits have brought about a series of problems on how to economically exploit and utilize these uranium resources. To prospect for superlarge uranium deposits is a guarantee of making uranium resources essentially meet the demand for the long-term development of nuclear industry in China, and is an important way of improving economic benefits in mining China's uranium resources. It is an important mark for uranium geological exploration work to go up a new step as well. China exhibits the geological environment in which various types of superlarge uranium deposits can be formed. Having the financial support from the state to uranium resources exploration work, having professional uranium exploration teams well-experienced in ore prospecting, having modernized uranium exploration techniques and equipment and also having foreign experience in prospecting for superlarge uranium deposits as reference, it is entirely possible to find out superlarge uranium deposits in China at the end of this century and at the beginning of next century. In order to realize the objective, the most important prerequisite is that research work on metallogenetic geological theory and exploration techniques and prospecting methodology for superlarge uranium deposits must be strengthened, and technical quality of the geological teams must be improved. Within this century, prospect targets should be selected and located accurately to carry out the emphatic breakthrough in exploration strategy
Mulvey, Rachel; Brown, Alan; Bimrose, Jenny
meaning around learning and skills development in relation to work and employment. All participants were interviewed individually, then a full transcript of the interview was produced. Each country research team analysed these interviews to identify themes. Some themes were born out of the particular...... in continuing vocational education. Analysis across the whole project sample led to the articulation of major themes around learning and career decision-making. The learning themes incorporated complementary perspectives on how individuals make meaning of their experience including: engaging with learning...... was consideration of the ways in which learning contributed to positive labour market outcomes. There were many examples of participants in all seven countries who had previously or were currently in the process of restructuring careers - along with examples of promising practice in this regard....
SUSAN C. BON
Full Text Available In this experimental study, a national random sample of high school principals (stratified by gender were asked to evaluate hypothetical applicants whose resumes varied by religion (Jewish, Catholic, nondenominational and gender (male, female for employment as assistant principals. Results reveal that male principals rate all applicants higher than female principals and that the gender and religion of applicants failed to negatively or positively affect principals’ evaluations. These results suggest that discrimination based on an applicant’s gender and religion failed to be manifested during the pre-interview stage of the selection process. The paper concludes with a theoretical discussion of the distinction between explicit and implicit prejudice, and encourages future researchers to investigate the potential impact of prejudice on employment selection decisions and to consider whether schools should promote diversity in leadership positions.
Oil and gas exploration is a unique kind of business. Businesses providing a vast and ever-changing panoply of products to markets are a focus of several disciplines' energetic study and analysis. The product inventory problem is robust, pertinent, and meaningful, and it merits the voluminous and protracted attention received from keen business practitioners. Prototypical business practitioners, be they trained by years of business hurly-burly, or sophisticated MBAs with arrays of mathematical algorithms and computers, are not normally prepared, however, to recognize the unique nature of exploration's inventories. Put together such a business practitioner with an explorationist and misunderstandings, hidden and open, are inevitable and predictably rife. The first purpose of this paper is to articulate the inherited inventory handling paradigms of business practitioners in relation to exploration's inventories. To do so, standard pedagogy in business administration is used and a case study of an exploration venture is presented. A second purpose is to show the burdens that the misunderstandings create. The result is not just business plans that go awry, but public policies that have effects opposite from those intended
M.A. Despite the fact that same-sex marriage was legalised in South Africa in 2006, predominant societal attitudes towards gay couples remain negative. In the face of this opposition, samesex couples who choose to marry are often in need of support, but may find that support lacking because of the stigma associated with being gay. This study sought to explore what happens with family support in particular when a gay couple chooses to marry legally. Using a narrative qualitative method, inf...
Dibley, Lesley; Czuber-Dochan, Wladyslawa; Wade, Tiffany; Duncan, Julie; Burch, Jennie; Warusavitarne, Janindra; Norton, Christine; Artom, Micol; O'Sullivan, Liam; Verjee, Azmina; Cann, Denise
Many inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients worry about stoma-forming surgery (SFS), sometimes enduring poor bowel-related quality of life to avoid it. Anticipation of SFS and whether expectations match experience is underreported. This qualitative study explored influences on patients' SFS decision-making and compared preoperative concerns with postoperative outcomes. We purposively recruited participants with IBD from UK hospital outpatient and community sources, and IBD clinicians from public hospitals. Four focus groups, 29 semistructured patient participant interviews, and 18 clinician interviews were audio recorded, transcribed, and analysed thematically. Participants had a current temporary, recently-reversed, or permanent stoma, or were stoma naive. Four themes emerged: Preoperative concerns and expectations, Patient decision-making, Surgery and recovery, and Long-term outcomes. Participants and clinicians agreed about most preoperative concerns, that outcomes were often better than expected, and support from others with a stoma is beneficial. Patient decision-making involves multiple factors, including disease status. Some clinicians avoid discussing SFS, and the phrase 'last resort' can bias patient perceptions; others recommend early discussion, increasing dialogue when medical management becomes ineffective. The postoperative period is particularly challenging for patients. Stoma acceptance is influenced by personal perceptions and pre- and postoperative clinical and social support. Patients need balanced information on all treatment options, including surgery, from an early stage. Early multidisciplinary team dialogue about SFS, and contact with others living well with a stoma, could enable informed decision-making. Life with a stoma is often better than anticipated, improving quality of life and control. Ongoing specialist nursing support aids recovery and adjustment. © 2018 Crohn’s & Colitis Foundation of America. Published by Oxford University
Mills, Andrew; Phadke, Amol; Wiser, Ryan
Building transmission to reach renewable energy (RE) goals requires coordination among renewable developers, utilities and transmission owners, resource and transmission planners, state and federal regulators, and environmental organizations. The Western Renewable Energy Zone (WREZ) initiative brings together a diverse set of voices to develop data, tools, and a unique forum for coordinating transmission expansion in the Western Interconnection. In this report we use a new tool developed in the WREZ initiative to evaluate possible renewable resource selection and transmission expansion decisions. We evaluate these decisions under a number of alternative future scenarios centered on meeting 33% of the annual load in the Western Interconnection with new renewable resources located within WREZ-identified resource hubs. Of the renewable resources in WREZ resource hubs, and under the assumptions described in this report, our analysis finds that wind energy is the largest source of renewable energy procured to meet the 33% RE target across nearly all scenarios analyzed (38-65%). Solar energy is almost always the second largest source (14-41%). Solar exceeds wind by a small margin only when solar thermal energy is assumed to experience cost reductions relative to all other technologies. Biomass, geothermal, and hydropower are found to represent a smaller portion of the selected resources, largely due to the limited resource quantity of these resources identified within the WREZ-identified hubs (16-23% combined). We find several load zones where wind energy is the least cost resource under a wide range of sensitivity scenarios. Load zones in the Southwest, on the other hand, are found to switch between wind and solar, and therefore to vary transmission expansion decisions, depending on uncertainties and policies that affect the relative economics of each renewable option. Uncertainties and policies that impact bus-bar costs are the most important to evaluate carefully, but
Blum, David Arthur
Algae biodiesel is the sole sustainable and abundant transportation fuel source that can replace petrol diesel use; however, high competition and economic uncertainties exist, influencing independent venture capital decision making. Technology, market, management, and government action uncertainties influence competition and economic uncertainties in the venture capital industry. The purpose of this qualitative case study was to identify the best practice skills at IVC firms to predict uncertainty between early and late funding stages. The basis of the study was real options theory, a framework used to evaluate and understand the economic and competition uncertainties inherent in natural resource investment and energy derived from plant-based oils. Data were collected from interviews of 24 venture capital partners based in the United States who invest in algae and other renewable energy solutions. Data were analyzed by coding and theme development interwoven with the conceptual framework. Eight themes emerged: (a) expected returns model, (b) due diligence, (c) invest in specific sectors, (d) reduced uncertainty-late stage, (e) coopetition, (f) portfolio firm relationships, (g) differentiation strategy, and (h) modeling uncertainty and best practice. The most noteworthy finding was that predicting uncertainty at the early stage was impractical; at the expansion and late funding stages, however, predicting uncertainty was possible. The implications of these findings will affect social change by providing independent venture capitalists with best practice skills to increase successful exits, lessen uncertainty, and encourage increased funding of renewable energy firms, contributing to cleaner and healthier communities throughout the United States..
Marvin, Hans J. P.; Bouwmeester, Hans; Bakker, Martine; Kroese, E. Dinant; Meent, Dik van de; Bourgeois, Francois; Lokers, Rob; Ham, Henk van der; Verhelst, Lieke
Engineered nanoparticles (ENPs) have gained huge commercial interest because of their unique and size-related physicochemical properties. The diversity and complexity of ENPs is increasing with the introduction of next generation nanoparticles. The current approaches are not able to assess the safety of all types and applications of ENPs. Therefore, we are developing a decision support system (DSS) that helps to identify those ENPs and applications that should get priority in the risk assessment. This DSS smartly uses existing knowledge in publicly available databases. With the aid of vocabularies, knowledge rules and logic reasoning new knowledge will be derived. In this paper, the procedure for a DSS is described. Since this system is open by design, others can re-use and extend the DSS content, and newly developed DSS tools can be easily accommodated, which will make the DSS more effective over the years. Data of newly emerging studies will be used for the validation of the DSS. The results will benefit regulating authorities and scientists focussing on the development of inherently safe ENPs
Winter, Laraine; Parker, Barbara
As a substantial body of research attests, the acceptability of life-prolonging treatment (e.g., tube feeding) tends to be greater among people in worse health than among healthier ones. Because a decision for or against a life-prolonging treatment represents a choice between two prospects-life (usually in poor health) and death-we propose a decision model, Prospect Theory, as a theoretical account of this phenomenon. Prospect Theory postulates that pairs of distant prospects are less distinguishable than pairs of closer ones. Thus, to healthy individuals, the prospects of death and life in poor health would both be remote, and therefore, the distinction between them, small. To less healthy individuals, however, the difference between the same pairs of prospects would appear greater, and therefore, life-prolonging treatment may be more acceptable. In a cross-sectional study of 304 community-dwelling people, aged 60 years and over in the Philadelphia area, USA, preferences for 4 life-prolonging treatments in 9 health scenarios were examined in relation to participants' current health, operationalized as number of deficits in physical functioning. As predicted, less healthy people expressed stronger preferences for all life-prolonging treatments compared with healthier ones, with differences greatest in the worse-health scenarios. Preferences also varied by health scenario, with any treatment preferred in the better health scenarios. Treatment preferences did not differ by type of treatment, depressed mood or any demographic characteristic except race, with African-Americans expressing stronger treatment preferences. Implications for advance care planning are discussed.
Mungure, Daudi Mika
This paper explored the preparation and organization of teaching practice exercise to prospective science and mathematics teachers in Tanzania teachers college specifically Morogoro Teachers' College toward improving teaching profession. Due to the challenges stated by different scholars on preparation and organization of teaching practice…
Kim, Min Soon; Aro, Michael R; Lage, Kraig J; Ingalls, Kevin L; Sindhwani, Vivek; Markey, Mia K
The objective of this study was to conduct a usability evaluation of mobile apps for supporting education and training in radiologic diagnostic decision-making processes. Of 381 mobile apps available at two major stores (Google Play and iTunes), eight iOS apps were selected for laboratory-based usability tests. Six staff radiologists completed eight app-specific task sets, using a think-aloud strategy. The triangular methods approach included quantitative performance measures, System Usability Scale (SUS), and qualitative thematic analysis using heuristic usability principles of usability issues. Overall, radiologists achieved higher than 70% success, with favorable SUS scores, in completing the tasks for seven of the eight apps. However, task success rate and SUS score had a weak relation (r = 0.23), indicating that the perceived usability may not reflect the holistic usability of the app. Task analysis and self-report revealed 108 usability issues, which were condensed to 55 unique issues and categorized by nine usability themes and mapped to ten usability heuristics. Nonintuitive functionality (eg, nonintuitive or misleading labels) was the most frequent theme observed, leading to inefficient navigation. These usability findings were consistent with the 13 improvements the radiologists suggested. This study demonstrates the feasibility of usability evaluation of radiology mobile apps and suggests potential improvements in the development of radiology mobile apps. This study also suggests that proficiency with mobile devices may not be equivalent to being an expert user, proficient in using the apps. Copyright © 2016 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Wang Yusheng; Li Wenjun
During the Meso-Cenozoic era, the crust in the east of South China experienced an evolutional process of compression-relaxed extension-local disintegration, correspondingly, three periods of volcanic activity were developed, forming initial volcanic cycle, principal volcanic cycle and caldera volcanic cycle. The caldera volcanic cycle was expressed as a 'bimodal type' rock suite, indicating the entering of the region into an evolutional stage of new embryonic refitting. The volcanic type uranium deposit is characterized by ore-formation during caldera volcanic cycle, ore control by the mobile belt of caldera volcanic cycle and double superposition and concentration, and it can be summarized as a new unconformity-related type uranium deposit of caldera volcanic series, which is divided into three morphological types: body type, layer type and vein type and relevant exploration models are proposed. The new unconformity-related type uranium deposits of the caldera volcanic series in the east of South China have a great prospecting potential. The tectonomagmatic complex area of the caldera volcanic cycle developed on the granite basement is the favourable target area in searching for large uranium deposits from now on
Full Text Available Abstract Background Paramedics make important and increasingly complex decisions at scene about patient care. Patient safety implications of influences on decision making in the pre-hospital setting were previously under-researched. Cutting edge perspectives advocate exploring the whole system rather than individual influences on patient safety. Ethnography (the study of people and cultures has been acknowledged as a suitable method for identifying health care issues as they occur within the natural context. In this paper we compare multiple methods used in a multi-site, qualitative study that aimed to identify system influences on decision making. Methods The study was conducted in three NHS Ambulance Trusts in England and involved researchers from each Trust working alongside academic researchers. Exploratory interviews with key informants e.g. managers (n = 16 and document review provided contextual information. Between October 2012 and July 2013 researchers observed 34 paramedic shifts and ten paramedics provided additional accounts via audio-recorded ‘digital diaries’ (155 events. Three staff focus groups (total n = 21 and three service user focus groups (total n = 23 explored a range of experiences and perceptions. Data collection and analysis was carried out by academic and ambulance service researchers as well as service users. Workshops were held at each site to elicit feedback on the findings and facilitate prioritisation of issues identified. Results The use of a multi-method qualitative approach allowed cross-validation of important issues for ambulance service staff and service users. A key factor in successful implementation of the study was establishing good working relationships with academic and ambulance service teams. Enrolling at least one research lead at each site facilitated the recruitment process as well as study progress. Active involvement with the study allowed ambulance service researchers and service
Johnson, Maxine; O'Hara, Rachel; Hirst, Enid; Weyman, Andrew; Turner, Janette; Mason, Suzanne; Quinn, Tom; Shewan, Jane; Siriwardena, A Niroshan
Paramedics make important and increasingly complex decisions at scene about patient care. Patient safety implications of influences on decision making in the pre-hospital setting were previously under-researched. Cutting edge perspectives advocate exploring the whole system rather than individual influences on patient safety. Ethnography (the study of people and cultures) has been acknowledged as a suitable method for identifying health care issues as they occur within the natural context. In this paper we compare multiple methods used in a multi-site, qualitative study that aimed to identify system influences on decision making. The study was conducted in three NHS Ambulance Trusts in England and involved researchers from each Trust working alongside academic researchers. Exploratory interviews with key informants e.g. managers (n = 16) and document review provided contextual information. Between October 2012 and July 2013 researchers observed 34 paramedic shifts and ten paramedics provided additional accounts via audio-recorded 'digital diaries' (155 events). Three staff focus groups (total n = 21) and three service user focus groups (total n = 23) explored a range of experiences and perceptions. Data collection and analysis was carried out by academic and ambulance service researchers as well as service users. Workshops were held at each site to elicit feedback on the findings and facilitate prioritisation of issues identified. The use of a multi-method qualitative approach allowed cross-validation of important issues for ambulance service staff and service users. A key factor in successful implementation of the study was establishing good working relationships with academic and ambulance service teams. Enrolling at least one research lead at each site facilitated the recruitment process as well as study progress. Active involvement with the study allowed ambulance service researchers and service users to gain a better understanding of the research
Rodado Noriega, Carlos
Daily millions of people dedicate apportion from their revenues to investments in games of chance with the hope of achieving the reward bigger, but without having to make a great effort. These investors bet to their luck, without having in most of the cases knowledge about the risk of losing their investment, because they are not aware of the scarce probabilities that have of winning. There are other investors of more size that play to the same thing, but in different scenarios, like they are the companies that invest in the oil business of the up stream. These companies, they bet to a geologic lottery that offers them investment opportunities, with big prizes that can compensate the risk to that they are exposed the capitals in this activity. These investors, for contrast with those that mix the hope with the amusement, if they have conscience of the risk that involves the search and exploitation of hydrocarbons and they have developed theories and technologies with which can diminish those uncertainties and to quantify them in such a way that they have the capacity to evaluate and to compare the different options that are offered inside a world every time but competitive. In this reference mark, the capital of risk and the technology constitute the fundamental elements with which it becomes possible search of oil reserves. Therefore they are these two elements, those that most of countries want to attract, to make possible the exploration of this natural class of resources
Law, Marcus; Mylopoulos, Maria; Veinot, Paula; Miller, Daniel; Hanson, Mark D
Despite the ever-increasing use of social media (e.g., Facebook, Twitter) little is known about its use in medical school admissions. This qualitative study explores whether and how social media (SM) is used in undergraduate admissions in Canada, and the attitudes of admissions personnel towards such use. Phone interviews were conducted with admissions deans and nominated admissions personnel. A qualitative descriptive analysis was performed using iterative coding and comparing, and grouping data into themes. Personnel from 15 of 17 Canadian medical schools participated. A sizeable proportion had, at some point, examined social media (SM) profiles to acquire information on applicants. Participants did not report using it explicitly to screen all applicants (primary use); however, several did admit to looking at SM to follow up on preliminary indications of misbehaviour (secondary use). Participants articulated concerns, such as validity and equity, about using SM in admissions. Despite no schools having existing policy, participants expressed openness to future use. While some of the 15 schools had used SM to acquire information on applicants, criteria for formulating judgments were obscure, and participants expressed significant apprehension, based on concerns for fairness and validity. Findings suggest participant ambivalence and ongoing risks associated with "hidden" selection practices.
Muhammad Rehan MASOOM
Full Text Available The present study is designed to make a comprehensive understanding of the attitude of the urban consumers and explore the factors involved in dealing with the perishable food of certain kinds. The rise of the middle class stipulates the enhancement of the shopping environment; hence witnessing a substantial increase of the number of the supermarkets in developing countries like Bangladesh will not be surprising. A number of urban supermarkets in recent times start selling perishable foods that were once available in Bangladesh only in flea markets (Kaccha Bazaar. However, due to the lack of proper infrastructure, agro-based perishable food reaches the urban market via a long process of chain mediations and raises concerns about quality and price for both retailers and consumers. Very often the attitudes of consumers regarding perishable foods are unknown and their preferences remain unidentified. This high level of uncertainty regarding the attitude of consumers and the unpopularity regarding overall food quality need to be resolved to ensure the continuity of the business and guarantee the quality of the products. This has made the study of the consumers’ attitude towards perishable food, especially relevant for emerging economies like Bangladesh. The data is collected from one hundred (100 consumers, who buy food regularly from both super-shops and flea markets in Dhaka city. The collected data are analyzed in terms of factors like importance, expectation and perceived actual level of value to show the gap in terms of perishable foods involved.
Full Text Available Service-dominant (S-D logic is a service science framework that is more robust than the traditional goods-dominant (G-D logic. It emphasizes the importance of operant resources and value Cocreation. This study employs social cognitive theory to explore the triple reciprocity of organizational value Cocreation behavior. Further, this study uses DEMATEL-based ANP to examine the dynamic nature of organizational value Cocreation behavior. The major results of this study can be described as follows. First, the triadic reciprocity of personal, environmental, and behavioral factors are validated. Second, the dominant influencing trends are clearly identified. From a dimensional point of view, environmental factors affect personal factors and behavioral factors, and personal factors affect behavioral factors. Similarly, in terms of organizational value Cocreation behavior, organizational identification affects altruistic behavior and knowledge-sharing behavior, and altruistic behavior affects knowledge-sharing behavior. These findings may provide helpful guidance in effectively promoting organizational value cocreation behavior, enabling organizations to leverage operant resources to their maximum potential.
Ramezankhani, Azra; Hadavandi, Esmaeil; Pournik, Omid; Shahrabi, Jamal; Azizi, Fereidoun; Hadaegh, Farzad
The current study was undertaken for use of the decision tree (DT) method for development of different prediction models for incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and for exploring interactions between predictor variables in those models. Prospective cohort study. Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS). A total of 6647 participants (43.4% men) aged >20 years, without T2D at baselines ((1999-2001) and (2002-2005)), were followed until 2012. 2 series of models (with and without 2-hour postchallenge plasma glucose (2h-PCPG)) were developed using 3 types of DT algorithms. The performances of the models were assessed using sensitivity, specificity, area under the ROC curve (AUC), geometric mean (G-Mean) and F-Measure. T2D was primary outcome which defined if fasting plasma glucose (FPG) was ≥7 mmol/L or if the 2h-PCPG was ≥11.1 mmol/L or if the participant was taking antidiabetic medication. During a median follow-up of 9.5 years, 729 new cases of T2D were identified. The Quick Unbiased Efficient Statistical Tree (QUEST) algorithm had the highest sensitivity and G-Mean among all the models for men and women. The models that included 2h-PCPG had sensitivity and G-Mean of (78% and 0.75%) and (78% and 0.78%) for men and women, respectively. Both models achieved good discrimination power with AUC above 0.78. FPG, 2h-PCPG, waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) and mean arterial blood pressure (MAP) were the most important factors to incidence of T2D in both genders. Among men, those with an FPG≤4.9 mmol/L and 2h-PCPG≤7.7 mmol/L had the lowest risk, and those with an FPG>5.3 mmol/L and 2h-PCPG>4.4 mmol/L had the highest risk for T2D incidence. In women, those with an FPG≤5.2 mmol/L and WHtR≤0.55 had the lowest risk, and those with an FPG>5.2 mmol/L and WHtR>0.56 had the highest risk for T2D incidence. Our study emphasises the utility of DT for exploring interactions between predictor variables. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission
Sprung, Charles L; Artigas, Antonio; Kesecioglu, Jozef
on mortality and intensive care unit benefit, specifically for elderly patients. DESIGN:: Prospective, observational study of triage decisions from September 2003 until March 2005. SETTING:: Eleven intensive care units in seven European countries. PATIENTS:: All patients >18 yrs with an explicit request......RATIONALE:: Life and death triage decisions are made daily by intensive care unit physicians. Admission to an intensive care unit is denied when intensive care unit resources are constrained, especially for the elderly. OBJECTIVE:: To determine the effect of intensive care unit triage decisions...... care unit rejections than younger patients and have a higher mortality when admitted, the mortality benefit appears greater for the elderly. Physicians should consider changing their intensive care unit triage practices for the elderly....
Padgett, Kath; Rhodes, Christine; Lumb, Maureen; Morris, Penny; Sherwin, Sue; Symons, Jools; Tate, Joannie; Townend, Ken
Involving service users and carers in decisions about their health care is a key feature of health-care practice. Professional health and social care students need to develop skills and attributes to best enable this to happen. The aims were to explore service user and carer perceptions of behaviours, attributes and context required to enable shared decision making; to compare these perceptions to those of students and academic staff with a view to utilizing the findings to inform the development of student assessment tools. A mixed methods approach was used including action learning groups (ALG) and an iterative process alongside a modified Delphi survey. The ALGs were from an existing service user and carer network. The survey was sent to sixty students, sixty academics and 30 service users from 16 different professional disciplines, spanning four Universities in England. The collaborative enquiry process and survey identified general agreement that being open and honest, listening, showing respect, giving time and being up to date were important. The qualitative findings identified that individual interpretation was a key factor. An unexpected result was an insight into possible insecurities of students. The findings indicate that distilling rich qualitative information into a format for student assessment tools could be problematic as the individual context could be lost, it is therefore proposed that the information could be better used as a learning rather than assessment tool. Several of those involved identified how they valued the process and found it beneficial. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Shannon E. Kelly
Full Text Available Background Rapid reviews expedite the knowledge synthesis process with the goal of providing timely information to healthcare decision-makers who want to use evidence-informed policy and practice approaches. A range of opinions and viewpoints on rapid reviews is thought to exist; however, no research to date has formally captured these views. This paper aims to explore evidence producer and knowledge user attitudes and perceptions towards rapid reviews. Methods A Q methodology study was conducted to identify central viewpoints about rapid reviews based on a broad topic discourse. Participants rank-ordered 50 text statements and explained their Q-sort in free-text comments. Individual Q-sorts were analysed using Q-Assessor (statistical method: factor analysis with varimax rotation. Factors, or salient viewpoints on rapid reviews, were identified, interpreted and described. Results Analysis of the 11 individual Q sorts identified three prominent viewpoints: Factor A cautions against the use of study design labels to make judgements. Factor B maintains that rapid reviews should be the exception and not the rule. Factor C focuses on the practical needs of the end-user over the review process. Conclusion Results show that there are opposing viewpoints on rapid reviews, yet some unity exists. The three factors described offer insight into how and why various stakeholders act as they do and what issues may need to be resolved before increase uptake of the evidence from rapid reviews can be realized in healthcare decision-making environments.
Moher, David; Clifford, Tammy J.
Background Rapid reviews expedite the knowledge synthesis process with the goal of providing timely information to healthcare decision-makers who want to use evidence-informed policy and practice approaches. A range of opinions and viewpoints on rapid reviews is thought to exist; however, no research to date has formally captured these views. This paper aims to explore evidence producer and knowledge user attitudes and perceptions towards rapid reviews. Methods A Q methodology study was conducted to identify central viewpoints about rapid reviews based on a broad topic discourse. Participants rank-ordered 50 text statements and explained their Q-sort in free-text comments. Individual Q-sorts were analysed using Q-Assessor (statistical method: factor analysis with varimax rotation). Factors, or salient viewpoints on rapid reviews, were identified, interpreted and described. Results Analysis of the 11 individual Q sorts identified three prominent viewpoints: Factor A cautions against the use of study design labels to make judgements. Factor B maintains that rapid reviews should be the exception and not the rule. Factor C focuses on the practical needs of the end-user over the review process. Conclusion Results show that there are opposing viewpoints on rapid reviews, yet some unity exists. The three factors described offer insight into how and why various stakeholders act as they do and what issues may need to be resolved before increase uptake of the evidence from rapid reviews can be realized in healthcare decision-making environments. PMID:27761324
Full Text Available An optimal balance between efficient exploitation of available resources and creative exploration of alternatives is critical for adaptation and survival. Previous studies associated these behavioral drives with, respectively, the dopaminergic mesocorticolimbic system and frontopolar-intraparietal networks. We study the activation of these systems in two age and gender-matched groups of experienced decision-makers differing in prior professional background, with the aim to understand the neural bases of individual differences in decision-making efficiency (performance divided by response time. We compare brain activity of entrepreneurs (who currently manage the organization they founded based on their venture idea and managers (who are constantly involved in making strategic decisions but have no venture experience engaged in a gambling-task assessing exploitative vs. explorative decision-making. Compared with managers, entrepreneurs showed higher decision-making efficiency, and a stronger activation in regions of frontopolar cortex previously associated with explorative choice. Moreover, activity across a network of regions previously linked to explore/exploit tradeoffs explained individual differences in choice efficiency. These results suggest new avenues for the study of individual differences in the neural antecedents of efficient decision-making.
Gai, Lili; Xu, Chunhao; Pelton, Lou E.
The enrollment of international students (e.g. students admitted using a F-1 visa into the U.S.) has been increasing continually for the past six academic years in American higher educational institutions. This article explores how Chinese applicants make decisions during their application journey for Master's degree programs in business schools.…
Renner, Lorna Awo; McGill, Deborah
Developing countries such as Ghana have very poor childhood cancer survival rates. There is a need to determine reasons for late presentation and treatment abandonment which are major causes of poor survival. Understanding these issues could inform effective strategies for childhood cancer control in resource-constrained settings. To explore factors influencing parental decision-making for children with cancer in Ghana with regard to health seeking and retention in treatment, in order to provide information that will guide Public Health interventions for childhood cancer control. This exploratory qualitative study was conducted based on an interpretative epistemology using a social constructionist approach. Purposive sampling of parents attending the Paediatric Oncology Unit, Korle Bu Teaching Hospital in Accra, Ghana was undertaken. Twelve semi-structured moderate interviews and two small focus group discussions with a total of seven participants were undertaken. Data analysis was through thematic content analysis. Five major themes emerged. Knowledge and perceptions revealed a total lack of appropriate knowledge prior to diagnosis. Health-seeking behaviour was determined by interplay of individual and environmental factors. Orthodox medical treatment was largely perceived favourably. The impact of cancer on parents and children included psychological, physical and socioeconomic effects. Financial, spiritual and psychosocial support helped in coping. Parents recommended public education and health financing to address the major barriers. Broad social determinants and experiences influence parental decision making for children with cancer. This implies Health Promotion strategies with multi-sectorial involvement will be required for effective implementation of the National Strategy for Cancer Control. Funded by authors.
Cousijn, J.; Wiers, R.W.; Ridderinkhof, K.R.; van den Brink, W.; Veltman, D.J.; Porrino, L.J.; Goudriaan, A.E.
Decision-making deficits are thought to play an important role in the development and persistence of substance use disorders. Individual differences in decision-making abilities and their underlying neurocircuitry may, therefore, constitute an important predictor for the course of substance use and
Kharbukh, Dzh U; Davton, Dzh Kh; Devis, Dzh K
The experience of using probability methods in different geological conditions on the US territory is generalized. The efficiency of using systems analysis, imitation modeling of prospecting-exploration process and conditions for arrangement of fields, machine processing of data in plotting different types of structural maps, probability forecasting of the presence of fields is shown. Especial attention is focused on nonstructural traps. A brief dictionary of terms is presented used in the mathematical apparatus and the computer in oil geology.
Full Text Available Abstract Background Ipilimumab, a fully human monoclonal antibody that blocks cytotoxic T-lymphocyte antigen-4, has demonstrated an improvement in overall survival in two phase III trials of patients with advanced melanoma. The primary objective of the current trial was to prospectively explore candidate biomarkers from the tumor microenvironment for associations with clinical response to ipilimumab. Methods In this randomized, double-blind, phase II biomarker study (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00261365, 82 pretreated or treatment-naïve patients with unresectable stage III/IV melanoma were induced with 3 or 10 mg/kg ipilimumab every 3 weeks for 4 doses; at Week 24, patients could receive maintenance doses every 12 weeks. Efficacy was evaluated per modified World Health Organization response criteria and safety was assessed continuously. Candidate biomarkers were evaluated in tumor biopsies collected pretreatment and 24 to 72 hours after the second ipilimumab dose. Polymorphisms in immune-related genes were also evaluated. Results Objective response rate, response patterns, and safety were consistent with previous trials of ipilimumab in melanoma. No associations between genetic polymorphisms and clinical activity were observed. Immunohistochemistry and histology on tumor biopsies revealed significant associations between clinical activity and high baseline expression of FoxP3 (p = 0.014 and indoleamine 2,3-dioxygenase (p = 0.012, and between clinical activity and increase in tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs between baseline and 3 weeks after start of treatment (p = 0.005. Microarray analysis of mRNA from tumor samples taken pretreatment and post-treatment demonstrated significant increases in expression of several immune-related genes, and decreases in expression of genes implicated in cancer and melanoma. Conclusions Baseline expression of immune-related tumor biomarkers and a post-treatment increase in TILs may be positively associated with
Dong, Fei; Yu, He; Ma, Jiaju; Wu, Liqun; Liu, Tiegang; Lv, Guokai; Zhen, Jianhua; Li, Xiaofei; Lewith, George; Gu, Xiaohong
Recurrent respiratory tract infections (RRTIs) have a negative impact on both children's health and family wellbeing. Deficiency of ZhengQi used to be an instinct factor driving RRTI in Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM). Our clinical observations suggest that children with gastrointestinal heat retention syndrome (GHRS) may have a greater risk of catching respiratory tract infections (RTIs). GHRS is a new predisposing factor for RRTI and it is dietary related. This study is aimed to explore association between GHRS and RRTI. A prospective cohort study has been conducted in Beijing, China; children aged 1-18 were enrolled. TCM symptoms, demographic and physiological characteristics were recorded by using semi-structured questionnaire. GHRS was considered as a predisposing factor. Children were followed up for next 12 months. We contacted with their parents using a face-to-face questionnaire survey, via email or phone every 3 months. Episodes of RTIs were recorded in detail. Three hundred thirty four children were enrolled and 307 (91.92%) followed up for 12 months. The incidence of RTI was 4.32 episodes per child-year (95 % CI 4.03-4.61). 69 (43.13%) children in the group with GHRS suffered from RRTI; there were 48 (32.65%) children in group without GHRS. The risk ratio (RR) value of RRTI occurrence was 1.32 (95 % CI 0.91-1.91, P = 0.139), and the attributable risk percent (AR%) was 24.28%. Dry stool and irritability were positively correlated with RTI episodes, age and BMI were negatively correlated with RTI episodes in a linear regression model. Dry stool (OR = 1.510) was positively correlated with RRTI occurrence, age (OR = 0.889) and BMI (OR = 0.858) were negatively correlated with RRTI occurrence in our logistic regression model. GHRS is associated with RRTI in this cohort. Dry stool was positively associated with RRTI, and BMI was negatively associated with RRTI. Studies with larger sample size and longer follow up are needed to further
Shafiee-Jood, M.; Cai, X.
Advances in streamflow forecasts at different time scales offer a promise for proactive flood management and improved risk management. Despite the huge potential, previous studies have found that water resources managers are often not willing to incorporate streamflow forecasts information in decisions making, particularly in risky situations. While low accuracy of forecasts information is often cited as the main reason, some studies have found that implementation of streamflow forecasts sometimes is impeded by institutional obstacles and behavioral factors (e.g., risk perception). In fact, a seminal study by O'Connor et al. (2005) found that risk perception is the strongest determinant of forecast use while managers' perception about forecast reliability is not significant. In this study, we aim to address this issue again. However, instead of using survey data and regression analysis, we develop a theoretical framework to assess the user-perceived value of streamflow forecasts. The framework includes a novel behavioral component which incorporates both risk perception and perceived forecast reliability. The framework is then used in a hypothetical problem where reservoir operator should react to probabilistic flood forecasts with different reliabilities. The framework will allow us to explore the interactions among risk perception and perceived forecast reliability, and among the behavioral components and information accuracy. The findings will provide insights to improve the usability of flood forecasts information through better communication and education.
Ismail, Sharif; Nason, Edward; Marjanovic, Sonja; Grant, Jonathan
Bibliometric analysis is an increasingly important part of a broader "toolbox" of evaluation methods available to research and development (R&D) policymakers to support decision-making. In the US, UK and Australia, for example, there is evidence of gradual convergence over the past ten years towards a model of university research assessment and ranking incorporating the use of bibliometric measures. In Britain, the Department of Health (England) has shown growing interest in using bibliometric analysis to support prospective R&D decision-making, and has engaged RAND Europe's expertise in this area through a number of exercises since 2005. These range from the macro-level selection of potentially high impact institutions, to micro-level selection of high impact individuals for the National Institute for Health Research's faculty of researchers. The aim of this study is to create an accessible, "beginner's guide" to bibliometric theory and application in the area of health R&D decision-making. The study also aims to identify future directions and possible next steps in this area, based on RAND Europe's work with the Department of Health to date. It is targeted at a range of audiences, and will be of interest to health and biomedical researchers, as well as R&D decision-makers in the UK and elsewhere. The study was completed with funding support from RAND Europe's Health R&D Policy Research Unit with the Department of Health.
van Til, Janine Astrid; Groothuis-Oudshoorn, Catharina Gerarda Maria; Lieferink, Marijke; Dolan, James; Goetghebeur, Mireille
Background There is an increased interest in the use of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to support regulatory and reimbursement decision making. The EVIDEM framework was developed to provide pragmatic multi-criteria decision support in health care, to estimate the value of healthcare
Quang Truong, Xuan; Luan Truong, Xuan; Nguyen, Tuan Anh; Nguyen, Dinh Tuan; Cong Nguyen, Chi
The objective of this study is to design and implement a WebGIS Decision Support System (WDSS) for reducing uncertainty and supporting to improve the quality of exploration decisions in the Sin-Quyen copper mine, northern Vietnam. The main distinctive feature of the Sin-Quyen deposit is an unusual composition of ores. Computer and software applied to the exploration problem have had a significant impact on the exploration process over the past 25 years, but up until now, no online system has been undertaken. The system was completely built on open source technology and the Open Geospatial Consortium Web Services (OWS). The input data includes remote sensing (RS), Geographical Information System (GIS) and data from drillhole explorations, the drillhole exploration data sets were designed as a geodatabase and stored in PostgreSQL. The WDSS must be able to processed exploration data and support users to access 2-dimensional (2D) or 3-dimensional (3D) cross-sections and map of boreholles exploration data and drill holes. The interface was designed in order to interact with based maps (e.g., Digital Elevation Model, Google Map, OpenStreetMap) and thematic maps (e.g., land use and land cover, administrative map, drillholes exploration map), and to provide GIS functions (such as creating a new map, updating an existing map, querying and statistical charts). In addition, the system provides geological cross-sections of ore bodies based on Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW), nearest neighbour interpolation and Kriging methods (e.g., Simple Kriging, Ordinary Kriging, Indicator Kriging and CoKriging). The results based on data available indicate that the best estimation method (of 23 borehole exploration data sets) for estimating geological cross-sections of ore bodies in Sin-Quyen copper mine is Ordinary Kriging. The WDSS could provide useful information to improve drilling efficiency in mineral exploration and for management decision making.
Ivers, Noah; Tricco, Andrea C; Trikalinos, Thomas A; Dahabreh, Issa J; Danko, Kristin J; Moher, David; Straus, Sharon E; Lavis, John N; Yu, Catherine H; Shojania, Kaveh; Manns, Braden; Tonelli, Marcello; Ramsay, Timothy; Edwards, Alun; Sargious, Peter; Paprica, Alison; Hillmer, Michael; Grimshaw, Jeremy M
To improve quality of care and patient outcomes, health system decision-makers need to identify and implement effective interventions. An increasing number of systematic reviews document the effects of quality improvement programs to assist decision-makers in developing new initiatives. However, limitations in the reporting of primary studies and current meta-analysis methods (including approaches for exploring heterogeneity) reduce the utility of existing syntheses for health system decision-makers. This study will explore the role of innovative meta-analysis approaches and the added value of enriched and updated data for increasing the utility of systematic reviews of complex interventions. We will use the dataset from our recent systematic review of 142 randomized trials of diabetes quality improvement programs to evaluate novel approaches for exploring heterogeneity. These will include exploratory methods, such as multivariate meta-regression analyses and all-subsets combinatorial meta-analysis. We will then update our systematic review to include new trials and enrich the dataset by surveying authors of all included trials. In doing so, we will explore the impact of variables not, reported in previous publications, such as details of study context, on the effectiveness of the intervention. We will use innovative analytical methods on the enriched and updated dataset to identify key success factors in the implementation of quality improvement interventions for diabetes. Decision-makers will be involved throughout to help identify and prioritize variables to be explored and to aid in the interpretation and dissemination of results. This study will inform future systematic reviews of complex interventions and describe the value of enriching and updating data for exploring heterogeneity in meta-analysis. It will also result in an updated comprehensive systematic review of diabetes quality improvement interventions that will be useful to health system decision
Iglesias, Cynthia P; Drummond, Michael F; Rovira, Joan
The use of economic evaluation studies (EE) in the decision-making process within the health-care system of nine Latin American (LA) and three European countries was investigated. The aim was to identify the opportunities, obstacles, and changes needed to facilitate the introduction of EE as a formal tool in health-care decision-making processes in LA. A comparative study was conducted based on existing literature and information provided through a questionnaire applied to decision makers in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Cuba, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru, Portugal Spain, United Kingdom, Uruguay, and Venezuela. Systematic electronic searches of HEED, NHS EED, and LILACS were conducted to identify published economic evaluation studies in LA from 1982 onward. There is relatively little evidence of the conduct and use of EE within the health care systems in LA. Electronic searches retrieved 554 records; however, only 93 were EE. In the nine LA participating countries, broad allocation of health-care resources is primarily based on political criteria, historical records, geographical areas, and specific groups of patients and diseases. Public-health provision and inclusion of services in health-insurance package are responsibilities of the Ministry of Health. Decisions regarding the purchase of medicines are primarily made through public tenders, and mainly based on differences in clinical efficacy and the price of health technologies of interest. To expedite the process of incorporating EE as a formal tool to inform decision-making processes within the health-care systems in LA countries, two main conditions need to be fulfilled. First, adequate resources and skills need to be available to conduct EE of good quality. Second, decision-making procedures need to be modified to accommodate "evidence-based" approaches such as EE.
Cousijn, Janna; Wiers, Reinout W; Ridderinkhof, K Richard; van den Brink, Wim; Veltman, Dick J; Porrino, Linda J; Goudriaan, Anna E
Decision-making deficits are thought to play an important role in the development and persistence of substance use disorders. Individual differences in decision-making abilities and their underlying neurocircuitry may, therefore, constitute an important predictor for the course of substance use and the development of substance use disorders. Here, we investigate the predictive value of decision making and neural mechanisms underlying decision making for future cannabis use and problem severity in a sample of heavy cannabis users. Brain activity during a monetary decision-making task (Iowa gambling task) was compared between 32 heavy cannabis users and 41 matched non-using controls using functional magnetic resonance imaging. In addition, within the group of heavy cannabis users, associations were examined between task-related brain activations, cannabis use and cannabis use-related problems at baseline, and change in cannabis use and problem severity after a 6-month follow-up. Despite normal task performance, heavy cannabis users compared with controls showed higher activation during wins in core areas associated with decision making. Moreover, within the group of heavy cannabis users, win-related activity and activity anticipating loss outcomes in areas generally involved in executive functions predicted change in cannabis use after 6 months. These findings are consistent with previous studies and point to abnormal processing of motivational information in heavy cannabis users. A new finding is that individuals who are biased toward immediate rewards have a higher probability of increasing drug use, highlighting the importance of the relative balance between motivational processes and regulatory executive processes in the development of substance use disorders. © 2012 The Authors, Addiction Biology © 2012 Society for the Study of Addiction.
Carrejo, David J.; Marshall, Jill
This paper focuses on the construction, development, and use of mathematical models by prospective science and mathematics teachers enrolled in a university physics course. By studying their involvement in an inquiry-based, experimental approach to learning kinematics, we address a fundamental question about the meaning and role of abstraction in…
Euser, Anja S.; Evans, Brittany E.; Greaves-Lord, Kirstin; Huizink, Anja C.; Franken, Ingmar H. A.
The present study examined the role of parental rearing behavior in adolescents' risky decision-making and the brain's feedback processing mechanisms. Healthy adolescent participants ("n" = 110) completed the EMBU-C, a self-report questionnaire on perceived parental rearing behaviors between 2006 and 2008 (T1). Subsequently, after an…
Harris, Kevin R; Eccles, David W; Freeman, Carlos; Ward, Paul
Research on decision-making under stress has mainly involved laboratory-based studies with few contextual descriptions of decision-making under stress in the natural ecology. We examined how police officers prepared for, coped with and made decisions under threat-of-death stress during real events. A delayed retrospective report method was used to elicit skilled police officers' thoughts and feelings during attempts to resolve such events. Reports were analysed to identify experiences of stress and coping, and thought processes underpinning decision-making during the event. Officers experienced a wide range of events, coped with stress predominantly via problem-focused strategies, and adapted their decision-making under stress based on the available context. Future officer training should involve a greater variety of training scenarios than is involved in current training, and expose trainees to the possible variants of each situation to foster better situational representation and, thus, a more reliable and adaptive mental model for use in decision-making. Practitioner Summary: This study concerns decision-making and coping strategies used by skilled police officers during real threat-of-death situations. Officers' decision-making strategies differed according to the complexity of the situation and they coped with the stress of these situations via attempts to resolve the situations (e.g. by planning responses) and, to a lesser extent, via attempts to deal with their emotions.
Loos, Sabine; Clarke, Eleanor; Jordan, Harriet; Puschner, Bernd; Fiorillo, Andrea; Luciano, Mario; Ivánka, Tibor; Magyar, Erzsébet; Krogsgaard-Bording, Malene; Østermark-Sørensen, Helle; Rössler, Wulf; Kawohl, Wolfram; Mayer, Benjamin; Slade, Mike
Clinical decision-making is the vehicle of health care provision, and level of involvement predicts implementation and satisfaction. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of decision-making experience on recovery. Data derived from an observational cohort study "Clinical decision making and outcome in routine care for people with severe mental illness" (CEDAR). Adults (aged 18-60) meeting standardised criteria for severe mental illness were recruited from caseloads of outpatient and community mental health services in six European countries. After consenting, they were assessed using standardised measures of decision-making, clinical outcome and stage of recovery at baseline and 1 year later. Latent class analysis was used to identify course of recovery, and proportional odds models to investigate predictors of recovery stage and change. Participants (n = 581) clustered into three stages of recovery at baseline: Moratorium (N = 115; 19.8%), Awareness/Preparation (N = 145; 25.0%) and Rebuilding/Growth (N = 321; 55.2%). Higher stage was cross-sectionally associated with being male, married, living alone or with parents, and having better patient-rated therapeutic alliance and fewer symptoms. The model accounted for 40% of the variance in stage of recovery. An increased chance of worse outcome (change over 1 year to lower stage of recovery) was found for patients with active involvement compared with either shared (OR = 1.84, 95% CI 1.15-2.94) or passive (OR = 1.71, 95% CI = 1.00-2.95) involvement. Overall, both process (therapeutic relationship) and outcome (symptomatology) are cross-sectionally associated with stage of recovery. Patient-rated decision-making involvement and change in stage of recovery are associated. Joint consideration of decision practise within the recovery process between patient and clinician is supposed to be a useful strategy to improve clinical practice (ISRCTN registry: ISRCTN75841675
Tang, Keshuang; Xu, Yanqing; Wang, Fen; Oguchi, Takashi
The objective of this study is to empirically analyze and model the stop-go decision behavior of drivers at rural high-speed intersections in China, where a flashing green signal of 3s followed by a yellow signal of 3s is commonly applied to end a green phase. 1, 186 high-resolution vehicle trajectories were collected at four typical high-speed intersection approaches in Shanghai and used for the identification of actual stop-go decision zones and the modeling of stop-go decision behavior. Results indicate that the presence of flashing green significantly changed the theoretical decision zones based on the conventional Dilemma Zone theory. The actual stop-go decision zones at the study intersections were thus formulated and identified based on the empirical data. Binary Logistic model and Fuzzy Logic model were then developed to further explore the impacts of flashing green on the stop-go behavior of drivers. It was found that the Fuzzy Logic model could produce comparably good estimation results as compared to the traditional Binary Logistic models. The findings of this study could contribute the development of effective dilemma zone protection strategies, the improvement of stop-go decision model embedded in the microscopic traffic simulation software and the proper design of signal change and clearance intervals at high-speed intersections in China. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Muhd Yusuf Dayang Hasliza
Full Text Available The study reveals that causation, rather than effectuation, decision-making strategy is a more significant predictor of sustainable performance of SMEs. However, social intelligence was not found to be a significant moderator of entrepreneurial decision-making-sustainable performance relationship. The study uses data from a survey among 91 technology-based SMEs (TBS in Malaysia and employs structural equation modelling techniques for data analysis. A new instrument to measure all three variables of entrepreneurial decision-making strategy, social intelligence, and venture performance is proposed based on adoption and adaptation of existing validated scales available in literature.
Full Text Available The 60th anniversary of the Space Age is an important intermediate finishing point on the way of a man and the whole humanity to space. Along with the outstanding achievements, there are a number of challenges and contradictions in space exploration due to the aggravation of the global crisis on Earth, low efficiency and the backlog of space research in the transition to a new technology based reality and clean technologies. Both the international astronautics and the space exploration area nowadays face difficulties in choosing a new paradigm and a development strategy that is becoming even more complicated due to the current unstable and turbulent situation on Earth. The article reveals the optimistic scenario of further space exploration, as well as the methodological and practical aspects of new projects and technologies. The periodization of the Space Age history has been conducted. It has been also proposed a new classification of the “space” phenomenon due to concretizing the concept of “global” in the form of a three-scale structure encompassing the following levels: 1 planetary global; 2 super global; 3 universally global. The notion of “super global space exploration project” has been introduced. The concept of further space exploration is proposed, which includes four interrelated super global projects:1 Earth Protection System from Asteroid and Comet Threat; 2 Moon Exploration; 3 Mars Exploration; 4 Cosmic Humanity. Since the humanity is embarking on the practical implementation of these super global projects, it is urgent to make a transition towards a new technology based order, as well as up-to-date technologies. A couple of ecological projects and space exploration technologies of the 20th and 21st centuries have been exemplified and analyzed. It has been also worked out the list of new environmentally friendly space technologies and projects. The research makes an emphasis upon a great potential of clean and green
Davis, Rachel E; Cole, Suzanne M; Blake, Christine E; McKenney-Shubert, Shannon J; Peterson, Karen E
This mixed methods study sought to understand who makes decisions about whether preschool-aged Mexican American children engage in eating, outdoor play, sleep, and screen time behaviors. Forty Mexican American mothers of children ages 3-4 participated in two interviews, during which both closed- and open-ended questions elicited perceptions of who made decisions for the four behaviors, as well as who was present, mealtime rules, and food choice values. Interviews were transcribed, coded for emergent themes, and compared across participants. Participants generally perceived themselves to be primary decision makers for all four behaviors; however, food decisions often seemed to be made collaboratively with the child. Fathers were most likely to participate in evening television decisions. Other family members were rarely mentioned. Selecting foods that children liked was a strong food choice value, while cost was rarely mentioned. Participants appeared to have low perceived control over their child's behaviors relative to their perceived roles in decision making. Mothers may be the primary audience for obesity prevention messages for preschool-aged, Mexican American children; however, health promotion programs may need to increase mothers' awareness of their control over children's behaviors. Understanding how children's behaviors are regulated is an important aspect of obesity prevention for low-income, Mexican American children. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Van Petegem, Stijn; Beyers, Wim; Brenning, Katrijn; Vansteenkiste, Maarten
The present investigation focuses on the associations between adolescents' insecure attachment styles (i.e., anxiety and avoidance) and their autonomous functioning in family decision making. In line with recent insights in the construct of adolescent autonomy, we combined two perspectives on autonomy, differentiating between the degree of independent versus dependent functioning and the self-endorsed and pressuring motives underlying (in)dependent functioning. A longitudinal sample of 327 adolescents (age range = 13-20 years; 64 % girls) completed questionnaires on attachment to the mother and father and on both autonomy operationalisations on two measurement moments spanning a 1-year interval. Structural equation modeling showed that attachment avoidance generally was unrelated to the degree of independent decision making and the motives underlying independent decision making, but related to more pressuring motives for dependent decision making. Anxiety, on the other hand, was associated with a lower degree of independent decision making as well as with more pressuring motives for both independent and dependent decision making. Cross-lagged paths were generally in line with these findings. Theoretical implications are outlined in the discussion.
People choose teaching as a career for intrinsic, altruistic, extrinsic, materialistic, and stereotypical reasons. It is also argued that extrinsic, material, and stereotypical reasons divert people's career preferences away from their real interest or talent. Hence the effectiveness of educating teachers depends upon exploring pre-service…
Plant, Katherine L; Stanton, Neville A
The perceptual cycle model (PCM) has been widely applied in ergonomics research in domains including road, rail and aviation. The PCM assumes that information processing occurs in a cyclical manner drawing on top-down and bottom-up influences to produce perceptual exploration and actions. However, the validity of the model has not been addressed. This paper explores the construct validity of the PCM in the context of aeronautical decision-making. The critical decision method was used to interview 20 helicopter pilots about critical decision-making. The data were qualitatively analysed using an established coding scheme, and composite PCMs for incident phases were constructed. It was found that the PCM provided a mutually exclusive and exhaustive classification of the information-processing cycles for dealing with critical incidents. However, a counter-cycle was also discovered which has been attributed to skill-based behaviour, characteristic of experts. The practical applications and future research questions are discussed. Practitioner Summary: This paper explores whether information processing, when dealing with critical incidents, occurs in the manner anticipated by the perceptual cycle model. In addition to the traditional processing cycle, a reciprocal counter-cycle was found. This research can be utilised by those who use the model as an accident analysis framework.
Pieterse, A H; Baas-Thijssen, M C M; Marijnen, C A M; Stiggelbout, A M
Patient participation in treatment decision-making is being increasingly advocated, although cancer treatments are often guideline-driven. Trade-offs between benefits and side effects underlying guidelines are made by clinicians. Evidence suggests that clinicians are inaccurate at predicting patient values. The aim was to assess what role oncologists and cancer patients prefer in deciding about treatment, and how they view patient participation in treatment decision-making. Seventy disease-free cancer patients and 60 oncologists (surgical, radiation, and medical) were interviewed about their role preferences using the Control Preferences Scale (CPS) and about their views on patient participation using closed- and open-ended questions. Almost all participants preferred treatment decisions to be the outcome of a shared process. Clinicians viewed participation more often as reaching an agreement, whereas 23% of patients defined participation exclusively as being informed. Of the participants, ⩾81% thought not all patients are able to participate and ⩾74% thought clinicians are not always able to weigh the pros and cons of treatment for patients, especially not quality as compared with length of life. Clinicians seemed reluctant to share probability information on the likely impact of adjuvant treatment. Clinicians should acknowledge the legitimacy of patients' values in treatment decisions. Guidelines should recommend elicitation of patient values at specific decision points. PMID:18781148
Xie, Bo; Wang, Mo; Feldman, Robert; Zhou, Le
Existing measurements of patient preferences cover only a limited range of health information and participation in decision making. A broader approach is necessary to understand the breadth and variations in patient preferences. To explore the breadth and variances in patient preferences for health information and participation in decision making and to understand the relationship between age and each type of preference. The Health Information Wants Questionnaire (HIWQ) was administered during May-December 2010 to gather data about the information and corresponding decision-making autonomy participants would want in seven areas: diagnosis, treatment, laboratory tests, self-care, complementary and alternative medicine (CAM), psychosocial factors and health-care providers. A large state university, public libraries and senior centres in Maryland, USA. A convenience sample of 438 individuals, including 226 undergraduates (mean age = 20; SD = 2.15) and 212 community-dwelling older adults (mean age = 72; SD = 9.00). Ratings on the information and decision-making items of the HIWQ. Participants expressed higher levels of preference for information than for participation in decision making on six of seven subscales. On the psychosocial subscale, they expressed stronger desire for participation in decision making than for information. Age had no predictive effect on the overall preferences or specific preferences for information and participation in decision making about standard treatments and CAM. The predictive effect of age on the other types of preferences varied significantly. Physicians should take into account the breadth and variations in patient preferences. The predictive effect of age on patient preferences varied depending on the specific area of preferences. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
In the UK, recent years have witnessed a considerable growth in youth participation activities that seek to involve children and young people in various forms of decision-making. One such form of youth participation to benefit from increased government support since the late 1990s concerns community arts activities, especially those targeting…
Blount, Kamilah V.
This study examined the impact of accelerated nursing direct entry master's programs on the development of clinical decision-making skills of new graduate nurses that completed the Performance Based Development System (PBDS) assessment during the study period of 2008-2012 at a healthcare organization. Healthcare today is practiced in a…
Gammon, D; Christiansen, E K; Wynn, R
Patient self-management of disease is increasingly supported by technologies that can monitor a wide range of behavioural and biomedical parameters. Incorporated into everyday devices such as cell phones and clothes, these technologies become integral to the psychosocial aspects of everyday life. Many technologies are likely to be marketed directly to families with ill members, and families may enlist the support of clinicians in shaping use. Current ethical frameworks are mainly conceptualised from the perspective of caregivers, researchers, developers and regulators in order to ensure the ethics of their own practices. This paper focuses on families as autonomous decision-makers outside the regulated context of healthcare. We discuss some morally relevant issues facing families in their decisions to monitor the health-related behaviours of loved ones. An example - remote parental monitoring of adolescent blood glucose - is presented and discussed through the lens of two contrasting accounts of ethics; one reflecting the predominant focus on health outcomes within the health technology assessment (HTA) framework and the other that attends to the broader sociocultural contexts shaping technologies and their implications. Issues discussed include the focus of assessments, informed consent and child assent, and family co-creation of system characteristics and implications. The parents' decisions to remotely monitor their child has relational implications that are likely to influence conflict levels and thus also health outcomes. Current efforts to better integrate outcome assessments with social and ethical assessments are particularly relevant for informed decision-making about health monitoring technologies in families.
Full Text Available In recent years, China's deep oil and gas exploration and exploitation have developed rapidly. Technological advancements have played an important role in the rapid exploration and highly efficient development. Aimed at the complex engineering geological environment of deep oil and gas in China, this paper has combined the four technological systems that have made significant progress, mainly including: (1 seismic imaging and reservoir prediction techniques for deep–burial complex structures, includign “2W1S” technique (wide-band, wide azimuth, and small bin, RTM (Reverse Time Migration, integrated modeling technology for complex structures and variable velocity mapping technique, improving structural interpretation accuracy, ensuring high precision ofimaging, and prediction for deep geological bodies; (2 deep speed raising and efficiency drilling technology series, which significantly improved the drilling speed, in turn reduced the drilling cost and drilling risk; (3 development of a deep high-temperature and high-pressure logging technology series, which provided a guarantee for the accurate identification of reservoir properties and fluid properties; (4 the efficient development technology for deep reservoirs, especially the development and maturity of the reconstruction volume technology, improve the production of single well and the benefit of deep oil and gas development. This paper further points out the improvement direction of the four major technology series of deep oil based on the analysis of the current development of the four major technological systems. Moreover, the development of applicability and economy for technical system is the key to realize high efficiency and low-cost exploration and development of deep oil and gas. Keywords: Deep oil & gas, Exploration and exploitation technologies, Seismic, Logging, Drilling, Petroleum reservoir stimulation
van Til, Janine; Groothuis-Oudshoorn, Catharina; Lieferink, Marijke; Dolan, James; Goetghebeur, Mireille
There is an increased interest in the use of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to support regulatory and reimbursement decision making. The EVIDEM framework was developed to provide pragmatic multi-criteria decision support in health care, to estimate the value of healthcare interventions, and to aid in priority-setting. The objectives of this study were to test 1) the influence of different weighting techniques on the overall outcome of an MCDA exercise, 2) the discriminative power in weighting different criteria of such techniques, and 3) whether different techniques result in similar weights in weighting the criteria set proposed by the EVIDEM framework. A sample of 60 Dutch and Canadian students participated in the study. Each student used an online survey to provide weights for 14 criteria with two different techniques: a five-point rating scale and one of the following techniques selected randomly: ranking, point allocation, pairwise comparison and best worst scaling. The results of this study indicate that there is no effect of differences in weights on value estimates at the group level. On an individual level, considerable differences in criteria weights and rank order occur as a result of the weight elicitation method used, and the ability of different techniques to discriminate in criteria importance. Of the five techniques tested, the pair-wise comparison of criteria has the highest ability to discriminate in weights when fourteen criteria are compared. When weights are intended to support group decisions, the choice of elicitation technique has negligible impact on criteria weights and the overall value of an innovation. However, when weights are used to support individual decisions, the choice of elicitation technique influences outcome and studies that use dissimilar techniques cannot be easily compared. Weight elicitation through pairwise comparison of criteria is preferred when taking into account its superior ability to discriminate between
Wilkie, Ross; Hay, Elaine M; Croft, Peter; Pransky, Glenn
Osteoarthritis pain has become a leading cause of decreased productivity and work disability in older workers, a major concern in primary care. How osteoarthritis pain leads to decreased productivity at work is unclear; the aim of this study was to elucidate causal mechanisms and thus identify potential opportunities for intervention. Population-based prospective cohort study of primary care consulters with osteoarthritis. Path analysis was used to test proposed mechanisms by examining the association between pain at baseline, and onset of work productivity loss at three years for mediation by physical limitation, depression, poor sleep and poor coping mechanisms. High pain intensity was associated with onset of work productivity loss (Adjusted Odds Ratio 2.5; 95%CI 1.3, 4.8). About half of the effect of pain on work productivity was a direct effect, and half was mediated by the impact of pain on physical function. Depression, poor sleep quality and poor coping did not mediate the association between high pain intensity and onset of work productivity loss. As pain is a major cause of work productivity loss, results suggest that decreasing pain should be a major focus. However, successfully improving function may have an indirect effect by decreasing the impact of pain on work productivity, especially important as significant pain reduction is often difficult to achieve. Although depression, sleep problems, and coping strategies may be directly related to work productivity loss, addressing these issues may not have much effect on the significant impact of pain on work productivity.
Satia, Jessie A.; Barlow, Jameta; Armstrong-Brown, Janelle; Watters, Joanne L.
Aims To develop and test cancer prevention messages based on Prospect theory on motivation to improve dietary intake in African American adolescents, and to explore other salient factors that may inform dietary intervention design and implementation in this population. Methods Semi-structured in-person qualitative interviews were conducted with 13 African-American male and female adolescents, 12-16 years, in North Carolina. Prospect theory and message framing were used to guide the design of the four sets of diet-related messages related to cancer prevention: short-term gain-, long-term gain-, short-term loss-, and long-term loss-framed messages. Data were also collected on demographic, behavioral, and psychological factors; usual health behaviors; and preferences for intervention delivery. Results The majority of respondents found the gain-framed, short-term messages most salient for both fruits/vegetables (8 (61.5%)), and fat consumption (7 (53.8%)). For fat consumption only, 2 (15.4%) found the loss-framed, short-term messages pertinent; none found the loss-framed, long-term messages relevant for either dietary variable. All indicated interest in participating in a dietary intervention/education program; most preferred the Internet as a channel for intervention delivery. Participants expressed diverse views regarding knowledge, attitudes, and beliefs regarding healthy eating. Conclusions Researchers conducting dietary interventions and education initiatives and medical professionals who counsel African American adolescents should consider using Prospect Theory as a theoretical framework, should focus on gain-framed short-term messages regarding cancer prevention, and should employ the Internet for data collection and intervention and information delivery. PMID:20142738
Blanchard, Andrea Katryn; Bruce, Sharon Gail; Jayanna, Krishnamurthy; Gurav, Kaveri; Mohan, Haranahalli L; Avery, Lisa; Moses, Stephen; Blanchard, James Frederick; Ramesh, Banadakoppa M
This study was conducted to explore the decision-making processes regarding sites for delivery of infants among women, their husbands, and mothers-in-law in a rural area of northern Karnataka state, south India. Qualitative semi-structured, individual in-depth interviews were conducted in 2010 among 110 pregnant women, new mothers, husbands and mothers-in-law. Interviews were conducted by trained local researchers in participants' languages and then translated into English. Decisions were made relationally, as family members weighed their collective attitudes and experiences towards a home, private or public delivery. Patterns of both concordance and discordance between women and their families' preferences for delivery site were present. The voice of pregnant women and new mothers was not always subordinate to that of other family members. Still, the involvement of husbands and mothers-in-law was important in decision-making, indicating the need to consider the influence of household gender and power dynamics. All respondent types also expressed shifts in social context and cultural attitudes towards increasing preference for hospital delivery. An appreciation of the interdependence of family members' roles in delivery site decision-making, and how they are influenced by the socio-cultural context, must be considered in frameworks used to guide the development of relevant interventions to improve the utilization and quality of maternal, neonatal and child health services.
Vann, Timi S.; Venezia, Robert A.
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Earth Science Enterprise is engaged in applications of NASA Earth science and remote sensing technologies for public health. Efforts are focused on establishing partnerships with those agencies and organizations that have responsibility for protecting the Nation's Health. The program's goal is the integration of NASA's advanced data and technology for enhanced decision support in the areas of disease surveillance and environmental health. A focused applications program, based on understanding partner issues and requirements, has the potential to significantly contribute to more informed decision making in public health practice. This paper intends to provide background information on NASA's investment in public health and is a call for partnership with the larger practice community.
Ellen M. Douglas
New hydrological insights for the region: Results suggest support for greater local and irrigator involvement in water management decisions. Many, if not most, of the irrigators understood the need for, or at least the inevitability of, governmental policies and regulations. However, a lack of accountability, predictability, and transparency has added to the uncertainty in farm-based water decision-making. Irrigators supported the concept of environmental sustainability, although they might not always agree with how the concept is implemented. The mental modelling approach facilitated knowledge sharing among stakeholders and can be used to identify common goals. Future research utilizing the mental modelling approach may encourage co-management and knowledge partnerships between irrigators, water managers and government officials.
Kumar, Koshila; Jones, Debra; Naden, Kathryn; Roberts, Chris
One strategy aimed at resolving ongoing health workforce shortages in rural and remote settings has been to implement workforce development initiatives involving the early activation and development of health career aspirations and intentions among young people in these settings. This strategy aligns with the considerable evidence showing that rural background is a strong predictor of rural practice intentions and preferences. The Broken Hill Regional Health Career Academy Program (BHRHCAP) is an initiative aimed at addressing local health workforce challenges by helping young people in the region develop and further their health career aspirations and goals. This article reports the factors impacting on rural and remote youths' health career decision-making within the context of a health workforce development program. Data were collected using interviews and focus groups with a range of stakeholders involved in the BHRHCAP including local secondary school students, secondary school teachers, career advisors, school principals, parents, and pre-graduate health students undertaking a clinical placement in Broken Hill, and local clinicians. Data interpretation was informed by the theoretical constructs articulated within socio cognitive career theory. Young people's career decision-making in the context of a local health workforce development program was influenced by a range of personal, contextual and experiential factors. These included personal factors related to young people's career goals and motivations and their confidence to engage in career decision-making, contextual factors related to BHRHCAP program design and structure as well as the visibility and accessibility of health career pathways in a rural setting, and experiential factors related to the interaction and engagement between young people and role models or influential others in the health and education sectors. This study provided theoretical insight into the broader range of interrelating and
Marc R. DeVore
Full Text Available Understanding the impact of state sponsorship on the decision-making of violent non-state actors is among the more important issues to scholars of security studies. This article addresses the issue by examining the relationship between Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah. To preview its conclusions, there are two main perspectives to consider with regard to the terrorist group – state sponsor relationship. First, state support has a powerful, yet indirect effect on violent non-state actor decision-making by shaping the options available to groups’ leaders. Second, state sponsors can also directly leverage their aid to shape the strategic decisions of armed non-state actors, forcing their clients to either expand or restrict their activities. Because of inevitable lacunae and contradictions amongst published accounts, this study relies heavily upon primary sources and data collected during field research in Lebanon, including interviews with leaders from Hezbollah, the Lebanese Army, the United Nations' Peacekeeping Mission in Southern Lebanon (UNIFIL and the rival Shia organization, Amal.
Alyahya, Mohammad S; Hijazi, Heba H; Alshraideh, Hussam A; Al-Nasser, Amjad D
There is a growing concern that reduction in hospital length of stay (LOS) may raise the rate of hospital readmission. This study aims to identify the rate of avoidable 30-day readmission and find out the association between LOS and readmission. All consecutive patient admissions to the internal medicine services (n = 5,273) at King Abdullah University Hospital in Jordan between 1 December 2012 and 31 December 2013 were analyzed. To identify avoidable readmissions, a validated computerized algorithm called SQLape was used. The multinomial logistic regression was firstly employed. Then, detailed analysis was performed using the Decision Trees (DTs) model, one of the most widely used data mining algorithms in Clinical Decision Support Systems (CDSS). The potentially avoidable 30-day readmission rate was 44%, and patients with longer LOS were more likely to be readmitted avoidably. However, LOS had a significant negative effect on unavoidable readmissions. The avoidable readmission rate is still highly unacceptable. Because LOS potentially increases the likelihood of avoidable readmission, it is still possible to achieve a shorter LOS without increasing the readmission rate. Moreover, the way the DT model classified patient subgroups of readmissions based on patient characteristics and LOS is applicable in real clinical decisions.
Miller, Perry; Phipps, Michael; Chatterjee, Sharmila; Rajeevan, Nallakkandi; Levin, Forrest; Frawley, Sandra; Tokuno, Hajime
Computer-based clinical decision support (CDS) is an important component of the electronic health record (EHR). As an increasing amount of CDS is implemented, it will be important that this be accomplished in a fashion that assists in clinical decision making without imposing unacceptable demands and burdens upon the provider's practice. The objective of our study was to explore an approach that allows CDS to be clinician-friendly from a variety of perspectives, to build a prototype implementation that illustrates features of the approach, and to gain experience with a pilot framework for assessment. The paper first discusses the project's design philosophy and goals. It then describes a prototype implementation (Neuropath/CDS) that explores the approach in the domain of neuropathic pain and in the context of the US Veterans Administration EHR. Finally, the paper discusses a framework for assessing the approach, illustrated by a pilot assessment of Neuropath/CDS. The paper describes the operation and technical design of Neuropath/CDS, as well as the results of the pilot assessment, which emphasize the four areas of focus, scope, content, and presentation. The work to date has allowed us to explore various design and implementation issues relating to the approach illustrated in Neuropath/CDS, as well as the development and pilot application of a framework for assessment.
Akosua K Darkwah
Full Text Available This paper attempts to investigate continuities and discontinuities between traditional and modern representations of womanhood and female gender roles focusing primarily on family and work settings. Using approaches informed by Sociology, Cultural Psychology, and African Studies, the paper explores traditional views of womanhood encapsulated in (and also transmitted intergenerationally through proverbs. This customary perspective is contrasted with the results of the Everyday Lives Survey from the Pathways of Women's Empowerment Ghana project. The survey investigated the nature of everyday life– education, work, decision making, access to institutions, and autonomy in relationships - in six hundred (600 adult women in both rural and urban communities in three regions of Ghana. We argue that although the times are changing, Ghanaian women who live in a culture that values an interdependent way of being have not changed statistically significantly so far as issues of autonomy and decision-making are concerned.
Bell, Emily R; Glover, Lesley; Alexander, Tim
To explore teenagers' views of the future in relation to their choices to continue or terminate pregnancy. Despite recent decreases in the numbers of teenage pregnancies, across the world, the teenage pregnancy rate remains high. Consideration of views of the future (future orientation) appears to play an important part in teenage girls' decisions to continue with pregnancy. To date, no study has explored this in teenage pregnant girls at the time they make their decision to continue with or terminate their pregnancy. Cross-sectional mixed methods design. Three groups were included: termination of pregnancy (n = 19), antenatal (n = 9) and never pregnant (n = 23). Participants were 13-18 years old. The termination of pregnancy and antenatal groups were interviewed, and the never pregnant group completed postal questionnaires. Groups differed in individual aspects of future orientation, that is, education, career and family, and reasons for pregnancy resolution choice. The termination group had more clearly developed and longer-term plans for the future with a focus on career. The never pregnant group shared aspects of their future orientation with both the antenatal and termination of pregnancy groups. The impact of negative discourses about teenage pregnancy from others was identified as a significant issue. How pregnant teenage girls view the future has a relationship with their decision to terminate or continue with their pregnancy. The findings suggest that working with teenage girls to clarify their views of the future may be useful both in preventing future unwanted pregnancy and in supporting teenagers in making pregnancy decisions. Supporting pregnant teenagers in distancing themselves from negative stereotypes of teenage mothers may also be beneficial. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Grosz, A.E.; Greenwood, W.J.; Schruben, P.G.; Grossman, J.N.
Titanium, Zr, Hf, rare-earth element (REE), Th, and U data from the Hydrogeochemical Stream Sediment Reconnaissance (HSSR) database, and Th and U from the airborne spectral gamma-ray radiation data base of the National Uranium Resource Evaluation (NURE) program are diagnostic of, and may predict the presence of, commercially important concentrations of industrial heavy minerals. An analysis of these data from the Mississippi embayment region shows that regionally anomalous concentrations of these elements in sediment samples and intensifies in airborne radiation surveys can indicate the presence and relative abundance of important industrial heavy minerals such as ilmenite, rutile, zircon, and monazite. Plots of samples with statistically anomalous concentrations of these elements coincide with known placer deposits of industrial heavy minerals. Cretaceous and younger sediments are indicated as likely hosts to undiscovered economic deposits. Volcanic, plutonic, and metamorphic rocks are the sources of the minerals found in these sediments, and thus valley-fill sediments within the crystalline terranes may also host concentrations of placer minerals. Fe/Ti ratios ≤ 1.17 in sediment samples are shown to be sensitive indicators of weathered ilmenite (> 52.7 wt% TiO 2 ); locations of such samples are coincident with Cretaceous and younger sediments in the study area. The data outline large areas suitable for Ti-Hf-REE-bearing placer exploration. Evidence for potential Ti-Hf-REE placer deposits is given for unconsolidated sediments in the floodplain of the Mississippi River. Good correlations between the abundances of Ce and La, Ce and Th, and Th and U in the sediment samples show how the geographically more extensive NURE airborne spectral gamma-ray data base can be used to outline areas favorable for monazite-bearing placer exploration. (author)
This paper deals with determining the economic viability of the play or prospect. At the outset, one point is important. Preexploration economists are important because they enable geologists to see if their assumptions will prove profitable. Their assumptions must consider the full range of possible outcomes, even if only some portion of that range may contain prospects or plays that are estimated to be profitable. Play economics are preferable to prospect economics because, being the sum of several prospects, they give a broader view of the investment opportunity. Finally, remember that play and prospect economics are always slightly optimistic. They seldom include all of the exploration and overhead changes that must ultimately be borne by the successful prospects
This 2015 "mba.com Prospective Students Survey Report" explores the motivations, career goals, preferred program types, financial choices, decision time lines, and intended study destinations of individuals interested in pursuing a graduate management education. Findings analyzed in the report represent responses from nearly 12,000…
Kamal, F.; Englis-Danskin, Paula
Research on foreign direct investment is a rich vein of inquiry in international business and management literature. Scholars explore various aspects of FDI including the reasons for location selection. Chen and Yeh's research is in that tradition. Under the title of “Re-examining location
Bell, C.; Li, Y.; Lopez, E.; Hogue, T. S.
Decision support tools that quantitatively estimate the cost and performance of infrastructure alternatives are valuable for urban planners. Such a tool is needed to aid in planning stormwater projects to meet diverse goals such as the regulation of stormwater runoff and its pollutants, minimization of economic costs, and maximization of environmental and social benefits in the communities served by the infrastructure. This work gives a brief overview of an integrated decision support tool, called i-DST, that is currently being developed to serve this need. This presentation focuses on the development of a default database for the i-DST that parameterizes water quality treatment efficiency of stormwater best management practices (BMPs) by region. Parameterizing the i-DST by region will allow the tool to perform accurate simulations in all parts of the United States. A national dataset of BMP performance is analyzed to determine which of a series of candidate regionalizations explains the most variance in the national dataset. The data used in the regionalization analysis comes from the International Stormwater BMP Database and data gleaned from an ongoing systematic review of peer-reviewed and gray literature. In addition to identifying a regionalization scheme for water quality performance parameters in the i-DST, our review process will also provide example methods and protocols for systematic reviews in the field of Earth Science.
Rodriguez, Robert M; Langdorf, Mark I; Nishijima, Daniel; Baumann, Brigitte M; Hendey, Gregory W; Medak, Anthony J; Raja, Ali S; Allen, Isabel E; Mower, William R
Unnecessary diagnostic imaging leads to higher costs, longer emergency department stays, and increased patient exposure to ionizing radiation. We sought to prospectively derive and validate two decision instruments (DIs) for selective chest computed tomography (CT) in adult blunt trauma patients. From September 2011 to May 2014, we prospectively enrolled blunt trauma patients over 14 y of age presenting to eight US, urban level 1 trauma centers in this observational study. During the derivation phase, physicians recorded the presence or absence of 14 clinical criteria before viewing chest imaging results. We determined injury outcomes by CT radiology readings and categorized injuries as major or minor according to an expert-panel-derived clinical classification scheme. We then employed recursive partitioning to derive two DIs: Chest CT-All maximized sensitivity for all injuries, and Chest CT-Major maximized sensitivity for only major thoracic injuries (while increasing specificity). In the validation phase, we employed similar methodology to prospectively test the performance of both DIs. We enrolled 11,477 patients-6,002 patients in the derivation phase and 5,475 patients in the validation phase. The derived Chest CT-All DI consisted of (1) abnormal chest X-ray, (2) rapid deceleration mechanism, (3) distracting injury, (4) chest wall tenderness, (5) sternal tenderness, (6) thoracic spine tenderness, and (7) scapular tenderness. The Chest CT-Major DI had the same criteria without rapid deceleration mechanism. In the validation phase, Chest CT-All had a sensitivity of 99.2% (95% CI 95.4%-100%), a specificity of 20.8% (95% CI 19.2%-22.4%), and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 99.8% (95% CI 98.9%-100%) for major injury, and a sensitivity of 95.4% (95% CI 93.6%-96.9%), a specificity of 25.5% (95% CI 23.5%-27.5%), and a NPV of 93.9% (95% CI 91.5%-95.8%) for either major or minor injury. Chest CT-Major had a sensitivity of 99.2% (95% CI 95.4%-100%), a specificity of
Rashid, Mamunur [Tokyo Institute of Technology (Japan)
Energy consumption in India is growing very rapidly. India.s own existing as well as any new discoveries of natural gas revenues may meet only a fraction of its growing demand for energy. Hence, it will become more dependent on the global market for the supply of gas. But it is always difficult for different nations to reach a bilateral agreement on joint projects such as gas pipelines. India has been importing natural gas mostly in the form of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). But for the last two decades, it has shown an increasing interest in importing gas from international market by a pipeline. For example, it has planned to import natural gas from Iran, Myanmar, Bangladesh, and Turkmenistan via a pipeline. But India.s best option is to purchase gas from its neighbor Bangladesh via a pipeline. Union Oil of California (Unocal), a large investor in Bangladeshi gas, has proposed to build a pipeline, to sell the gas from its Bibiyana field. A Bangladesh-India pipeline potentially offers several socio-economic benefits. But the project, however, so far has made a little progress. Political issues attached to the project. If the Bangladeshi pipeline plan fails, India will turn other alternative options to meet its gas demand. India already has entered into agreement with International consortiums for LNG purchase. Furthermore, the country is also keen on increasing its effort to develop non-conventional sources in the near future. If these alternatives become viable, India.s demand for and dependence on foreign natural gas will decrease and natural gas (of Bangladesh, for example) might lose some of its value. Keywords: Natural gas exploration and supply in India and Bangladesh, Bangladesh-to-India pipeline, Unocal, natural gas import, market, politics, LNG, non-conventional hydrocarbon sources.
Full Text Available Deep marine carbonate rocks have become one of the key targets of onshore oil and gas exploration and development for reserves replacement in China. Further geological researches of such rocks may practically facilitate the sustainable, steady and smooth development of the petroleum industry in the country. Therefore, through a deep investigation into the fundamental geological conditions of deep marine carbonate reservoirs, we found higher-than-expected resource potential therein, which may uncover large oil or gas fields. The findings were reflected in four aspects. Firstly, there are two kinds of hydrocarbon kitchens which were respectively formed by conventional source rocks and liquid hydrocarbons cracking that were detained in source rocks, and both of them can provide large-scale hydrocarbons. Secondly, as controlled by the bedding and interstratal karstification, as well as the burial and hydrothermal dolomitization, effective carbonate reservoirs may be extensively developed in the deep and ultra-deep strata. Thirdly, under the coupling action of progressive burial and annealing heating, some marine source rocks could form hydrocarbon accumulations spanning important tectonic phases, and large quantity of liquid hydrocarbons could be kept in late stage, contributing to rich oil and gas in such deep marine strata. Fourthly, large-scale uplifts were formed by the stacking of multi-episodic tectonism and oil and gas could be accumulated in three modes (i.e., stratoid large-area reservoir-forming mode of karst reservoirs in the slope area of uplift, back-flow type large-area reservoir-forming mode of buried hill weathered crust karst reservoirs, and wide-range reservoir-forming mode of reef-shoal reservoirs; groups of stratigraphic and lithologic traps were widely developed in the areas of periclinal structures of paleohighs and continental margins. In conclusion, deep marine carbonate strata in China onshore contain the conditions for
Sharrad, Sue; de, Charlotte; Aylward, Paul; Wiechula, Rick
A significant number of Australian adolescents consume alcohol, with almost two thirds of them doing so at risky levels. This is continuing to increase despite recent National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) guidelines stipulating that no alcohol is the safest option. Measures initiated to reduce and prevent alcohol consumption by adolescents have limited effectiveness. Consumption of alcohol by Australian adolescents is a national concern because of the deleterious effects of alcohol consumption on adolescents' social, physical and neurological development, as well as other short- and long-term health risks, and the negative impact of alcohol-related violence and injury on the community. Understanding adolescents' decisions to abstain or refrain from alcohol consumption may provide valuable insights to assist in dealing with this significant social and health issue, more particularly about the mechanisms used by adolescents or their ability to make decisions about resisting or abstaining from alcohol consumption when exposed to alcohol in their social setting(s). The review aimed to synthesize the best available qualitative evidence on the decisions made or mechanisms used by adolescents who abstain or refrain from consuming alcohol in any social setting where alcohol is available. Adolescents aged between 14 and 19 years who reside in Australia.The phenomenon of interest was abstinence from or resistance to alcohol consumption when exposed to alcohol in social situations.This review considered studies that focused on qualitative data, including, but not limited to,designs such as phenomenology, grounded theory, action research and exploratory studies. A three-step search strategy was used. An initial search to identify keywords only was undertaken in Medline and CINAHL. This was followed by an expanded search using all identified keywords and index terms specific to each included database. The reference lists of included papers were then searched for
Toussi, Massoud; Lamy, Jean-Baptiste; Le Toumelin, Philippe; Venot, Alain
Clinical guidelines carry medical evidence to the point of practice. As evidence is not always available, many guidelines do not provide recommendations for all clinical situations encountered in practice. We propose an approach for identifying knowledge gaps in guidelines and for exploring physicians' therapeutic decisions with data mining techniques to fill these knowledge gaps. We demonstrate our method by an example in the domain of type 2 diabetes. We analyzed the French national guidelines for the management of type 2 diabetes to identify clinical conditions that are not covered or those for which the guidelines do not provide recommendations. We extracted patient records corresponding to each clinical condition from a database of type 2 diabetic patients treated at Avicenne University Hospital of Bobigny, France. We explored physicians' prescriptions for each of these profiles using C5.0 decision-tree learning algorithm. We developed decision-trees for different levels of detail of the therapeutic decision, namely the type of treatment, the pharmaco-therapeutic class, the international non proprietary name, and the dose of each medication. We compared the rules generated with those added to the guidelines in a newer version, to examine their similarity. We extracted 27 rules from the analysis of a database of 463 patient records. Eleven rules were about the choice of the type of treatment and thirteen rules about the choice of the pharmaco-therapeutic class of each drug. For the choice of the international non proprietary name and the dose, we could extract only a few rules because the number of patient records was too low for these factors. The extracted rules showed similarities with those added to the newer version of the guidelines. Our method showed its usefulness for completing guidelines recommendations with rules learnt automatically from physicians' prescriptions. It could be used during the development of guidelines as a complementary source from
Full Text Available Abstract Background Clinical guidelines carry medical evidence to the point of practice. As evidence is not always available, many guidelines do not provide recommendations for all clinical situations encountered in practice. We propose an approach for identifying knowledge gaps in guidelines and for exploring physicians' therapeutic decisions with data mining techniques to fill these knowledge gaps. We demonstrate our method by an example in the domain of type 2 diabetes. Methods We analyzed the French national guidelines for the management of type 2 diabetes to identify clinical conditions that are not covered or those for which the guidelines do not provide recommendations. We extracted patient records corresponding to each clinical condition from a database of type 2 diabetic patients treated at Avicenne University Hospital of Bobigny, France. We explored physicians' prescriptions for each of these profiles using C5.0 decision-tree learning algorithm. We developed decision-trees for different levels of detail of the therapeutic decision, namely the type of treatment, the pharmaco-therapeutic class, the international non proprietary name, and the dose of each medication. We compared the rules generated with those added to the guidelines in a newer version, to examine their similarity. Results We extracted 27 rules from the analysis of a database of 463 patient records. Eleven rules were about the choice of the type of treatment and thirteen rules about the choice of the pharmaco-therapeutic class of each drug. For the choice of the international non proprietary name and the dose, we could extract only a few rules because the number of patient records was too low for these factors. The extracted rules showed similarities with those added to the newer version of the guidelines. Conclusion Our method showed its usefulness for completing guidelines recommendations with rules learnt automatically from physicians' prescriptions. It could be used
Abellan-Perpiñan, Jose Maria; Bleichrodt, Han; Pinto-Prades, Jose Luis
Most health care evaluations today still assume expected utility even though the descriptive deficiencies of expected utility are well known. Prospect theory is the dominant descriptive alternative for expected utility. This paper tests whether prospect theory leads to better health evaluations than expected utility. The approach is purely descriptive: we explore how simple measurements together with prospect theory and expected utility predict choices and rankings between more complex stimuli. For decisions involving risk prospect theory is significantly more consistent with rankings and choices than expected utility. This conclusion no longer holds when we use prospect theory utilities and expected utilities to predict intertemporal decisions. The latter finding cautions against the common assumption in health economics that health state utilities are transferable across decision contexts. Our results suggest that the standard gamble and algorithms based on, should not be used to value health.
Lindsay S Elliott
Full Text Available In polypharmacy patients under home health management, pharmacogenetic testing coupled with guidance from a clinical decision support tool (CDST on reducing drug, gene, and cumulative interaction risk may provide valuable insights in prescription drug treatment, reducing re-hospitalization and emergency department (ED visits. We assessed the clinical impact of pharmacogenetic profiling integrating binary and cumulative drug and gene interaction warnings on home health polypharmacy patients.This prospective, open-label, randomized controlled trial was conducted at one hospital-based home health agency between February 2015 and February 2016. Recruitment came from patient referrals to home health at hospital discharge. Eligible patients were aged 50 years and older and taking or initiating treatment with medications with potential or significant drug-gene-based interactions. Subjects (n = 110 were randomized to pharmacogenetic profiling (n = 57. The study pharmacist reviewed drug-drug, drug-gene, and cumulative drug and/or gene interactions using the YouScript® CDST to provide drug therapy recommendations to clinicians. The control group (n = 53 received treatment as usual including pharmacist guided medication management using a standard drug information resource. The primary outcome measure was the number of re-hospitalizations and ED visits at 30 and 60 days after discharge from the hospital. The mean number of re-hospitalizations per patient in the tested vs. untested group was 0.25 vs. 0.38 at 30 days (relative risk (RR, 0.65; 95% confidence interval (CI, 0.32-1.28; P = 0.21 and 0.33 vs. 0.70 at 60 days following enrollment (RR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.27-0.82; P = 0.007. The mean number of ED visits per patient in the tested vs. untested group was 0.25 vs. 0.40 at 30 days (RR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.31-1.21; P = 0.16 and 0.39 vs. 0.66 at 60 days (RR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.34-0.99; P = 0.045. Differences in composite outcomes at 60 days (exploratory endpoints
Chambre Syndicale du Pétrole
Full Text Available Les bases de données bibliographiques accessibles en ligne sont un outil très efficace pour qui cherche des documents scientifiques et techniques, mais il faut bien les connaître pour savoir les sélectionner. Deux types de bases de données sont présentées. D'abord celles qui couvrent les différents domaines qui composent l'exploration et la production des hydrocarbures : géologie, géophysique, forage, production et récupération assistée, économie et actualités, énergie et environnement. Ensuite, celles qui couvrent un type particulier de document : brevets, rapports, thèses, actes de congrès, normes et spécifications, livres, traductions, citations. Des fiches descriptives répertorient les caractéristiques des bases de données présentées dans chacune des sections. Bibliographic data bases accessible online make a very effective tool for searching for scientific and technical documents, but a thorough understanding of them is required if they are to be selected properly. Two types of data bases are described. The first ones cover different fields involved in hydrocarbon prospection and production: geology, geophysical prospecting, drilling, production and enhanced recovery, economics and current events, energy, environment. Then come data bases covering a specific type of document: patents, reports, theses, conference proceedings, standards and specifications, books, translations, citations. Descriptive data sheets give an inventory of the leading characteristics of the data bases described in each section.
McCurdy, Howard E.
This folder contains working papers collected to date on a NASA-sponsored history project to document the events leading up to the July 20, 1989 speech setting forth the objectives of the Space Exploration Initiative. Included are a chronology of events, briefing papers produced by the NASA Working Group laying out proposal, briefing charts used to present the proposal, a copy of the President's speech, and an essay summarizing the events that led up to the announcement. Additionally, two fo the interviews conducted as part of the project are enclosed.
Thackray, Debbie; Roberts, Lisa
The ability of physiotherapists to make clinical decisions is a vital component of being an autonomous practitioner, yet this complex phenomenon has been under-researched in cardiorespiratory physiotherapy. The purpose of this study was to explore clinical decision-making (CDM) by experienced physiotherapists in a scenario of a simulated patient experiencing acute deterioration of their respiratory function. The main objective of this observational study was to identify the actions, thoughts, and behaviours used by experienced cardiorespiratory physiotherapists in their clinical decision-making processes. A mixed-methods (qualitative) design employing observation and think-aloud, was adopted using a computerised manikin in a simulated environment. The participants clinically assessed the manikin programmed with the same clinical signs, under standardised conditions in the clinical skills practice suite, which was set up as a ward environment. Experienced cardiorespiratory physiotherapists, recruited from clinical practice within a 50-mile radius of the University(*). Participants were video-recorded throughout the assessment and treatment and asked to verbalise their thought processes using the 'think-aloud' method. The recordings were transcribed verbatim and managed using a Framework approach. Eight cardiorespiratory physiotherapists participated (mean 7years clinical experience, range 3.5-16years. CDM was similar to the collaborative hypothetico-deductive model, five-rights nursing model, reasoning strategies, inductive reasoning and pattern recognition. However, the CDM demonstrated by the physiotherapists was complex, interactive and iterative. Information processing occurred continuously throughout the whole interaction with the patient, and the specific cognitive skills of recognition, matching, discriminating, relating, inferring, synthesising and prediction were identified as being used sequentially. The findings from this study were used to develop a new
Pihl, Gitte Thybo; Johannessen, Helle; Ammentorp, Jette; Jensen, Jane Schmidt; Kofoed, Poul-Erik
Vaccination is used worldwide to prevent infectious diseases. However, vaccination programmes in western countries face challenges in sustaining high coverage rates. The aim of this study was to explore how parents in Denmark make a decision about whether to allow their child to receive a Bacille Calmette Guerin vaccine at birth for the purpose of achieving non-specific effects on the immune system. A total of five focus groups were conducted with expectant mothers and fathers. Written information about the vaccine and information about the hypothesis of non-specific effects of the vaccine were delivered in order to discuss considerations and determinants of parents' decisions. Heritable factors and the possibility of stimulating the immune system of the child to achieve less atopic diseases and fewer infections were identified as arguments in favour of receiving the BCG vaccine. Arguments against receiving BCG mainly focused on concerns about its described and non-described side effects. Both arguments for and arguments against the vaccine were seen as parents attempt to make an individual risk evaluation for their child. Attitudes and beliefs in the local network were identified as important for parents' decisions. It is discussed how "lay epidemiology" characterizes parents' risk evaluation as an individual addition to the population-based risk declaration. It is furthermore discussed how health professionals should engage with both the empirical element and the value element of "Lay epidemiology". "Lay epidemiology" forms the basis for the parental decision of whether to allow their child to receive a BCG vaccination. Attitudes and beliefs about the causes and distribution of illnesses in the family or local network influence parents' risk evaluations. It would be ideal for parents if health professionals focused their communication about the BCG vaccine on individual risk evaluations.
Satia, Jessie A; Barlow, Jameta; Armstrong-Brown, Janelle; Watters, Joanne L
There is a dearth of knowledge regarding factors that may motivate African American adolescents to consume healthier diets. To develop and test cancer prevention messages based on Prospect Theory on motivation to improve dietary intake in African American adolescents and to explore other salient factors that may inform dietary intervention design and implementation in this population. Semistructured in-person qualitative interviews were conducted with 13 African American male and female adolescents, aged 12 to 16 years, in North Carolina. Prospect Theory and message framing were used to guide the design of the 4 sets of diet-related messages related to cancer prevention: short-term, gain-framed; long-term, gain-framed; short-term, loss-framed; and long-term, loss-framed messages. Data were also collected on demographic, behavioral, and psychological factors; usual health behaviors; and preferences for intervention delivery. Most respondents found the gain-framed, short-term messages most salient for both fruits/vegetables (8 [61.5%]) and fat consumption (7 [53.8%]). For fat consumption only, 2 (15.4%) found the loss-framed, short-term messages pertinent; none found the loss-framed, long-term messages relevant for either dietary variable. All indicated interest in participating in a dietary intervention/education program; most preferred the Internet as a channel for intervention delivery. Participants expressed diverse views regarding knowledge, attitudes, and beliefs regarding healthy eating. The gain-framed, short-term messages were most salient for motivating the majority of respondents to consume a healthy diet and most expressed a strong interest in participating in programs about diet and nutrition, with the Internet as the preferred communication channel. Researchers conducting dietary interventions and education initiatives and medical professionals who counsel African American adolescents should consider using Prospect Theory as a theoretical framework
Lowes, S; Bydder, M; Sinnatamby, R
To investigate UK radiology trainees' perceptions of breast radiology and the factors that influenced their decision whether or not to choose breast radiology as an area of special interest. An online survey was compiled and distributed to all UK specialty trainees in clinical radiology via the Royal College of Radiologists Junior Radiologists' Forum (JRF) regional representatives. There were 275 respondents, representing 22% of all UK radiology trainees. Responses were received from all regions. A significant factor identified in influencing whether or not trainees decide to pursue advanced training in breast radiology is the timing and quality of their initial core training experience. Specific positive aspects of breast radiology that were repeatedly identified included the high level of patient contact and frequent use of interventional procedures. Recurring negative aspects of breast radiology included isolation from general radiology and finding the subject matter boring. Breast radiology faces a significant workforce shortfall that is predicted to worsen in the coming years. There has never been a greater need to recruit specialty trainees into this field, and action is urgently needed to help ensure the sustainability of breast services and drive further improvements to patient care. The findings from this survey should be regarded as a challenge to all breast radiologists to engage with trainees from an early stage in their training and to enthuse them with the many positive aspects of a career in breast radiology. Copyright © 2017 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Wotherspoon, Lisa M; Boyd, Kathleen Anne; Morris, Rachel K; Jackson, Lesley; Chandiramani, Manju; David, Anna L; Khalil, Asma; Shennan, Andrew; Hodgetts Morton, Victoria; Lavender, Tina; Khan, Khalid; Harper-Clarke, Susan; Mol, Ben; Riley, Richard D; Norrie, John; Norman, Jane
Introduction The aim of the QUIDS study is to develop a decision support tool for the management of women with symptoms and signs of preterm labour, based on a validated prognostic model using quantitative fetal fibronectin (fFN) concentration, in combination with clinical risk factors. Methods and analysis The study will evaluate the Rapid fFN 10Q System (Hologic, Marlborough, Massachusetts, USA) which quantifies fFN in a vaginal swab. In QUIDS part 2, we will perform a prospective cohort study in at least eight UK consultant-led maternity units, in women with symptoms of preterm labour at 22+0 to 34+6 weeks gestation to externally validate a prognostic model developed in QUIDS part 1. The effects of quantitative fFN on anxiety will be assessed, and acceptability of the test and prognostic model will be evaluated in a subgroup of women and clinicians (n=30). The sample size is 1600 women (with estimated 96–192 events of preterm delivery within 7 days of testing). Clinicians will be informed of the qualitative fFN result (positive/negative) but be blinded to quantitative fFN result. Research midwives will collect outcome data from the maternal and neonatal clinical records. The final validated prognostic model will be presented as a mobile or web-based application. Ethics and dissemination The study is funded by the National Institute of Healthcare Research Health Technology Assessment (HTA 14/32/01). It has been approved by the West of Scotland Research Ethics Committee (16/WS/0068). Version Protocol V.2, Date 1 November 2016. Trial registration number ISRCTN41598423 and CPMS: 31277. PMID:29674373
Niehaus, Ines; Dintsios, Charalabos-Markos
The early benefit assessment of pharmaceuticals in Germany and their preceding market authorization pursue different objectives. This is reflected by the inclusion of varying confirmatory endpoints within the evaluation of oncology drugs in early benefit assessment versus market authorization, with both relying on the same evidence. Data from assessments up to July 2015 are used to estimate the impact of explorative in comparison to confirmatory endpoints on market authorization and early benefit assessment by contrasting the benefit-risk ratio of EMA and the benefit-harm balance of the HTA jurisdiction. Agreement between market authorization and early benefit assessment is examined by Cohen's kappa (k). 21 of 41 assessments were considered in the analysis. Market authorization is more confirmatory than early benefit assessment because it includes a higher proportion of primary endpoints. The latter implies a primary endpoint to be relevant for the benefit-harm balance in only 67% of cases (0.078). Explorative mortality endpoints reached the highest agreement regarding the mutual consideration for the risk-benefit ratio and the benefit-harm balance (0.000). For explorative morbidity endpoints (-0.600), quality of life (-0.600) and side effects (-0.949) no agreement is ascertainable. To warrant a broader confirmatory basis for decisions supported by HTA, closer inter-institutional cooperation of approval authorities and HTA jurisdictions by means of reliable joint advice for manufacturers regarding endpoint definition would be favorable. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The primary driver for developing missions to send humans to other planets is to generate significant scientific return. NASA plans human planetary explorations with an acceptable level of risk consistent with other manned operations. Space exploration risks can not be completely eliminated. Therefore, an acceptable level of cost, technical, safety, schedule, and political risks and benefits must be established for exploratory missions. This study uses a three-dimensional multi-criteria decision making model to identify the risks and benefits associated with three alternative mission architecture operations concepts for the human exploration of Mars identified by the Mission Operations Directorate at Johnson Space Center. The three alternatives considered in this study include split, combo lander, and dual scenarios. The model considers the seven phases of the mission including: 1) Earth Vicinity/Departure; 2) Mars Transfer; 3) Mars Arrival; 4) Planetary Surface; 5) Mars Vicinity/Departure; 6) Earth Transfer; and 7) Earth Arrival. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and subjective probability estimation are used to captures the experts belief concerning the risks and benefits of the three alternative scenarios through a series of sequential, rational, and analytical processes.
Cosh, S.; Zentner, N.; Ay, E.; Loos, S.; Slade, Mike; Maj, Mario; Salzano, A.; Berecz, R.; Glaub, T.; Munk-Jørgensen, Povl; Krogsgaard Bording, M.; Rössler, Wulf; Kawohl, Wolfram; Puschner, Bernd
Objective: This study aims to explore relationships between preferred and experienced clinical decision making with service use, and associated costs, by people with severe mental illness.\\ud Methods: Prospective observational study of mental healthcare in six European countries: Germany, UK, Italy Hungary, Denmark and Switzerland. Patients (N = 588) and treating clinicians (N = 213) reported preferred and experienced decision making at baseline using the Clinical Decision Making Style Scale ...
Carrino, Thais Andressa; Crósta, Alvaro Penteado; Toledo, Catarina Labouré Bemfica; Silva, Adalene Moreira
Remote sensing is a strategic key tool for mineral exploration, due to its capacity of detecting hydrothermal alteration minerals or alteration mineral zones associated with different types of mineralization systems. A case study of an epithermal system located in southern Peru is presented, aimed at the characterization of mineral assemblies for discriminating potential high sulfidation epithermal targets, using hyperspectral imagery integrated with petrography, XRD and magnetic data. HyMap images were processed using the Mixture Tuned Matched Filtering (MTMF) technique for producing alteration map in the Chapi Chiara epithermal gold prospect. Extensive areas marked by advanced argillic alteration (alunite-kaolinite-dickite ± topaz) were mapped in detail, as well as limited argillic (illite-smectite) and propylitic (chlorite spectral domain) alteration. The magmatic-hydrothermal processes responsible for the formation of hypogene minerals were also related to the destruction of ferrimagnetic minerals (e.g., magnetite) of host rocks such as andesite, and the remobilization/formation of paramagnetic Fe-Ti oxides (e.g., rutile, anatase). The large alteration zones of advanced argillic alteration are controlled by structures related to a regional NW-SE trend, and also by local NE-SW and ENE-WSW ones.
Yamada, Satoru; Shirai, Junpei
Exploration of the double beta decay without neutrino production (0 ν ββ decay) has come to be considered as one of the clues to the new physics beyond the standard model in the recent years. Searching for this phenomenon is the only possible method to verify if the neutrino itself be the equal particle of the antineutrino (Majorana particle) or not. If this decay process is found, it is the discovery of the nonconservative process of the total lepton number which goes beyond the standard theory. At the same time, it confirms that the neutrinos are the Majorana particles. In addition, from the decay half-lives, the absolute value of neutrino mass and hierarchy as well as the new knowledge of the CP violation in the lepton sector are expected to be obtained. Further progress is expected toward the development of the research of the particle creation mechanism at the beginning of the universe. Strong competitions are now being developed throughout the world to become the first to discover the phenomenon to go beyond the standard theory. In this text, the underground facility of KamLAND-Zen experiment with remodeled KamLAND detector with large amount of 136 Xe isotope is introduced and the results of the data obtained and analyzed by June 2012 are reported. Future prospect is described finally. (S. Funahashi)
Full Text Available Objective: The community-based Prevention of Mother to Child Transmission (PMTCT programme in Trinidad and Tobago offers care and support to HIV-positive (HIV+ pregnant women and their families for their lifetime. This study explored the factors influencing repeat childbearing by PMTCT enrolees. Method: In-depth qualitative interviews were conducted with purposively selected and consenting HIV+ women who enrolled in the PMTCT programme (n = 10 in County Victoria and four healthcare workers (HCWs. Transcribed interviews were analysed and coded using thematic content analysis. Results: Though women desired children and motherhood, some did not intend to conceive fearing HIV, age-related ill-health and vertical transmission. Others had not considered pregnancy and conceived through accident and partners’ disregard for the women’s HIV status, particularly if such partners were inebriated. Partners’ desire for children, especially in new relationships, led to planned pregnancies. Nine of the 10 HIV+ women did not seek family planning advice; the one that did was advised about partner infection but not risk reduction, vertical transmission or reinfection. Though HCWs supported HIV+ women’s reproductive rights, they agreed that HCWs stigmatized and discriminated against HIV+ mothers. Both parties saw the PMTCT programme as an effective programme in vastly reducing HIV transmission from mother to child. Conclusion: The PMTCT programme and family planning services should be integrated with tailored services toward HIV+ women and their partners to help them safely achieve their reproductive goals. Healthcare workers should be given training and skillsets to address stigma and discrimination against persons infected with HIV/AIDS within Trinidad and Tobago’s health workforce.
Stenner, Rob; Swinkels, Annette; Mitchell, Theresa; Palmer, Shea
Providing an effective exercise prescription process for patients with non-specific chronic low back pain (NSCLBP) is a challenging task. Emerging research has indicated that partnership in care and shared decision making are important for people with NSCLBP and calls for further investigation into the approaches used to prescribe exercise. To explore how shared decision making and patient partnership are addressed by physiotherapists in the process of exercise prescription for patients with NSCLBP. A qualitative study using a philosophical hermeneutic approach. Eight physiotherapists were each observed on three occasions undertaking their usual clinical activities (total n=24 observations). They conducted brief interviews after each observation and a later in depth semi-structured interview. Iterative hermeneutic strategies were used to interpret the texts and identify the characteristics and processes of exercise prescription for patients with NSCLBP. The findings revealed how physiotherapy practice often resulted in unequal possibilities for patient participation which were in turn linked to the physiotherapists' assumptions about the patients, clinical orientation, cognitive and decision making processes. Three linked themes emerged: (1) I want them to exercise, (2) which exercise? - the tension between evidence and everyday practice and (3) compliance-orientated more than concordance based. This research, by focusing on a patient-centred approach, makes an important contribution to the body of evidence relating to the management of NSCLBP. It challenges physiotherapists to critically appraise their approaches to the prescription of exercise therapy in order to improve outcomes for these patients. Copyright © 2015 Chartered Society of Physiotherapy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Armstrong John D
Full Text Available Abstract Background How physicians approach decision-making when caring for critically ill patients is poorly understood. This study aims to explore how residents think about prognosis and approach care decisions when caring for seriously ill, hospitalized patients. Methods Qualitative study where we conducted structured discussions with first and second year internal medicine residents (n = 8 caring for critically ill patients during Medical Intensive Care Unit Ethics and Discharge Planning Rounds. Residents were asked to respond to questions beginning with "Would you be surprised if this patient died?" Results An equal number of residents responded that they would (n = 4 or would not (n = 4 be surprised if their patient died. Reasons for being surprised included the rapid onset of an acute illness, reversible disease, improving clinical course and the patient's prior survival under similar circumstances. Residents reported no surprise with worsening clinical course. Based on the realization that their patient might die, residents cited potential changes in management that included clarifying treatment goals, improving communication with families, spending more time with patients and ordering fewer laboratory tests. Perceived or implied barriers to changes in management included limited time, competing clinical priorities, "not knowing" a patient, limited knowledge and experience, presence of diagnostic or prognostic uncertainty and unclear treatment goals. Conclusions These junior-level residents appear to rely on clinical course, among other factors, when assessing prognosis and the possibility for death in severely ill patients. Further investigation is needed to understand how these factors impact decision-making and whether perceived barriers to changes in patient management influence approaches to care.
Munichor, Nira; Erev, Ido; Lotem, Arnon
Four experiments are presented that explore situations in which a decision maker has to rely on personal experience in an attempt to minimize delays. Experiment 1 shows that risk-attitude in these timesaving decisions is similar to risk-attitude in money-related decisions from experience: A risky prospect is more attractive than a safer prospect with the same expected value only when it leads to a better outcome most of the time. Experiment 2 highlights a boundary condition: It suggests that a difficulty in ranking the relevant delays moves behavior toward random choice. Experiments 3 and 4 show that when actions must be taken during the delay (thereby helping compare delays), this increases the similarity of timesaving decisions to money-related decisions. In these settings the results reflect an increase in risk aversion with experience. The relationship of the results to the study of non-human time-related decisions, human money-related decisions and human time perception is discussed.
Gibson Smith K
Full Text Available Background: Patient information may assist in promoting shared decision-making, however it is imperative that the information presented is comprehensible and acceptable to the target audience. Objective: This study sought to explore the acceptability and comprehensibility of the ‘Medicines in Scotland: What’s the right treatment for you?’ factsheet to the general public. Methods: Qualitative semi-structured telephone interviews were conducted with members of the public. An interview schedule was developed to explore the acceptability and comprehensibility of the factsheet. Participants were recruited by a researcher who distributed information packs to attendees (n=70 of four community pharmacies. Interviews, (12-24 minutes duration, were audio recorded, transcribed verbatim and analysed using a framework approach. Results: Nineteen participants returned a consent form (27.1%, twelve were interviewed. Six themes were identified: formatting of the factsheet and interpretation; prior health knowledge and the factsheet; information contained in the factsheet; impact of the factsheet on behaviour; uses for the factsheet; and revisions to the factsheet. Conclusions: The factsheet was generally perceived as helpful and comprehensive. It was highlighted that reading the leaflet may generate new knowledge and may have a positive impact on behaviour.
Yamakawa, Hiroyasu; Sumi, Yasuhiko [Sumi Hospital, Gifu (Japan); Kaku, Yasuhiko; Sakai, Noboru; Yamada, Hiromu
To detect cervical carotid stenosis as a candidate for carotid endarterectomy (CEA), the authors attempted a prospective trial by exploring stenosis for one year in a rural district with a population of 20,000, employing helical CT angiography which apparently displayed three-dimensional reconstructed images of the carotid bifurcation. Thirty-three patients, 24 males and 9 females, with a mean age of 71.8 years, suffering from TIA, RIND or stroke were investigated for their carotid systems. The clinical symptoms of the patients were briefly as follows: motor weakness in 30 cases, dysarthria in 8 cases and aphasia in 4 cases; and 6 of 22 (27%) stroke cases had previously suffered an episode of TIA. The risk factors of the whole group of patients were hypertension in 13 cases, diabetes mellitus in 6, heart disease in 17, and hypercholesteremia in 4. Helical CT angiography was performed in 11 cases of TIA, 2 cases of RIND, and 16 cases of stroke. Only 3 cases of the TIA group and 3 cases of the stroke group were found to have extracranial carotid stenosis of more than 50%, which subsequently required conventional angiography. For the detection of stenosis, CT angiography was beneficial as well as conventional angiography. Finally, CEA was performed in 2 of 3 cases with severe carotid stonosis in the TIA group, while such cases in the stroke group were only observed. The above results meant that the occurrence of extracranial carotid stenosis was 6 out of 6,589 elderly inhabitants (over 60 years old), although the possible detection rate of candidates for CEA was 2 out of 20,000 population per year. (author).
Yamakawa, Hiroyasu; Sumi, Yasuhiko; Kaku, Yasuhiko; Sakai, Noboru; Yamada, Hiromu.
To detect cervical carotid stenosis as a candidate for carotid endarterectomy (CEA), the authors attempted a prospective trial by exploring stenosis for one year in a rural district with a population of 20,000, employing helical CT angiography which apparently displayed three-dimensional reconstructed images of the carotid bifurcation. Thirty-three patients, 24 males and 9 females, with a mean age of 71.8 years, suffering from TIA, RIND or stroke were investigated for their carotid systems. The clinical symptoms of the patients were briefly as follows: motor weakness in 30 cases, dysarthria in 8 cases and aphasia in 4 cases; and 6 of 22 (27%) stroke cases had previously suffered an episode of TIA. The risk factors of the whole group of patients were hypertension in 13 cases, diabetes mellitus in 6, heart disease in 17, and hypercholesteremia in 4. Helical CT angiography was performed in 11 cases of TIA, 2 cases of RIND, and 16 cases of stroke. Only 3 cases of the TIA group and 3 cases of the stroke group were found to have extracranial carotid stenosis of more than 50%, which subsequently required conventional angiography. For the detection of stenosis, CT angiography was beneficial as well as conventional angiography. Finally, CEA was performed in 2 of 3 cases with severe carotid stonosis in the TIA group, while such cases in the stroke group were only observed. The above results meant that the occurrence of extracranial carotid stenosis was 6 out of 6,589 elderly inhabitants (over 60 years old), although the possible detection rate of candidates for CEA was 2 out of 20,000 population per year. (author)
de Laat, Sonya; Schwartz, Lisa
Introduction Prospective informed consent is required for most research involving human participants; however, this is impracticable under some circumstances. The Tri-Council Policy Statement: Ethical Conduct for Research Involving Humans (TCPS) outlines the requirements for research involving human participants in Canada. The need for an exception to consent (deferred consent) is recognised and endorsed in the TCPS for research in individual medical emergencies; however, little is known about substitute decision-maker (SDM) experiences. A paediatric resuscitation trial (SQUEEZE) (NCT01973907) using an exception to consent process began enrolling at McMaster Children's Hospital in January 2014. This qualitative research study aims to generate new knowledge on SDM experiences with the exception to consent process as implemented in a randomised controlled trial. Methods and analysis The SDMs of children enrolled into the SQUEEZE pilot trial will be the sampling frame from which ethics study participants will be derived. Design: Qualitative research study involving individual interviews and grounded theory methodology. Participants: SDMs for children enrolled into the SQUEEZE pilot trial. Sample size: Up to 25 SDMs. Qualitative methodology: SDMs will be invited to participate in the qualitative ethics study. Interviews with consenting SDMs will be conducted in person or by telephone, taped and professionally transcribed. Participants will be encouraged to elaborate on their experience of being asked to consent after the fact and how this process occurred. Analysis: Data gathering and analysis will be undertaken simultaneously. The investigators will collaborate in developing the coding scheme, and data will be coded using NVivo. Emerging themes will be identified. Ethics and dissemination This research represents a rare opportunity to interview parents/guardians of critically ill children enrolled into a resuscitation trial without their knowledge or prior consent
Parker, Melissa J; de Laat, Sonya; Schwartz, Lisa
Prospective informed consent is required for most research involving human participants; however, this is impracticable under some circumstances. The Tri-Council Policy Statement: Ethical Conduct for Research Involving Humans (TCPS) outlines the requirements for research involving human participants in Canada. The need for an exception to consent (deferred consent) is recognised and endorsed in the TCPS for research in individual medical emergencies; however, little is known about substitute decision-maker (SDM) experiences. A paediatric resuscitation trial (SQUEEZE) (NCT01973907) using an exception to consent process began enrolling at McMaster Children's Hospital in January 2014. This qualitative research study aims to generate new knowledge on SDM experiences with the exception to consent process as implemented in a randomised controlled trial. The SDMs of children enrolled into the SQUEEZE pilot trial will be the sampling frame from which ethics study participants will be derived. Qualitative research study involving individual interviews and grounded theory methodology. SDMs for children enrolled into the SQUEEZE pilot trial. Up to 25 SDMs. Qualitative methodology: SDMs will be invited to participate in the qualitative ethics study. Interviews with consenting SDMs will be conducted in person or by telephone, taped and professionally transcribed. Participants will be encouraged to elaborate on their experience of being asked to consent after the fact and how this process occurred. Data gathering and analysis will be undertaken simultaneously. The investigators will collaborate in developing the coding scheme, and data will be coded using NVivo. Emerging themes will be identified. This research represents a rare opportunity to interview parents/guardians of critically ill children enrolled into a resuscitation trial without their knowledge or prior consent. Findings will inform implementation of the exception to consent process in the planned definitive SQUEEZE
Brogan, Paula; Hasson, Felicity; McIlfatrick, Sonja
Globally recommended in healthcare policy, Shared Decision-Making is also central to international policy promoting community palliative care. Yet realities of implementation by multi-disciplinary healthcare professionals who provide end-of-life care in the home are unclear. To explore multi-disciplinary healthcare professionals' perceptions and experiences of Shared Decision-Making at end of life in the home. Qualitative design using focus groups, transcribed verbatim and analysed thematically. A total of 43 participants, from multi-disciplinary community-based services in one region of the United Kingdom, were recruited. While the rhetoric of Shared Decision-Making was recognised, its implementation was impacted by several interconnecting factors, including (1) conceptual confusion regarding Shared Decision-Making, (2) uncertainty in the process and (3) organisational factors which impeded Shared Decision-Making. Multiple interacting factors influence implementation of Shared Decision-Making by professionals working in complex community settings at the end of life. Moving from rhetoric to reality requires future work exploring the realities of Shared Decision-Making practice at individual, process and systems levels.
Liu, Yang-Yu; Nacher, Jose C.; Ochiai, Tomoshiro; Martino, Mauro; Altshuler, Yaniv
Prospect theory is widely viewed as the best available descriptive model of how people evaluate risk in experimental settings. According to prospect theory, people make decisions based on the potential value of losses and gains rather than the final outcome. People are risk-averse with respect to gains and risk-seeking with respect to losses, a phenomenon called ``loss aversion''. Despite of the fact that prospect theory has been well studied in behavioral economics at the theoretical level, there exist very few empirical research and most of them has been undertaken with micro-panel data. Here we analyze the trading activities of over 1.5 million members of an online financial trading community over 28 months, aiming to explore the large-scale empirical aspect of prospect theory. By analyzing and comparing the behaviour of ``winners'' and ``losers'', i.e., traders with positive or negative final net profit, we find clear evidence of the loss aversion phenomenon, an essence in prospect theory. This work demonstrates an unprecedented large-scale empirical evidence of prospect theory. It has immediate implication in financial trading, e.g., developing new trading strategies by minimizing the effect of loss aversion. It also provides opportunity to augment online social trading, where users are allowed to watch and follow the trading activity of others, by predicting potential winners based on their historical trading behaviour.
Making decisions to increase community or regional sustainability requires a comprehensive understanding of the linkages between environmental, social, and economic systems. We present a visualization tool that can improve decision processes by enhancing understanding of system c...
Iredale, R.; Rapport, F.; Sivell, S.; Jones, W.; Edwards, A.; Gray, J.; Elwyn, G.
RATIONALE: Patients concerned about a family history of breast cancer can face difficult decisions about screening, prophylactic surgery and genetic testing. Decision aids can facilitate patient decision making and currently include leaflets and computerized tools. These are largely aimed at the
Exploring interactions between payment for hydrologic service policies, landowner decisions, and ecohydrology in a Mexican cloud forest watershed: Is there a disconnect between the policy and the resource?
Asbjornsen, H.; Geissert, D.; Gomez-Tagle, A.; Holwerda, F.; Manson, R.; Perez-Maqueo, O.; Munoz-Villers, L.; Scullion, J.
Payment for hydrologic service (PHS) programs are increasingly being used as a means to incentivize watershed protection by compensating upstream 'water producers' with payments made by downstream 'water consumers'. However, the effectiveness of PHS programs in achieving their target goals is often poorly understood. Here, we draw from insights obtained from socioeconomic and ecohydrological research in Veracruz, Mexico to explore interactions between PHS policies, landowner decisions, and hydrologic services. GIS analysis of land-cover changes during 2003-2009 combined with interviews of PHS participants indicated that despite lower deforestation rates on properties receiving PES payments, other factors were likely to have a greater influence on land use decisions than PHS payments per se, including opportunity costs and personal conservation ethic. The interviews also highlighted a general lack of trust and cooperation between the citizen participants and government administrators, which was reflected in the relatively low level of knowledge of the PHS programs' regulations and goals, the role of forests in protecting water resources, and a low level of co-financing by the private sector. An important premise of PHS programs is that protecting existing forest cover (and planting trees) will enhance water supply, especially in upland cloud forests that are due to their perceived role as water producers. Measurements of climate, steamflow, canopy fog interception, plant transpiration, soil water dynamics, and hydrologic flow paths were collected over a 3-year period to assess stand water balance and streamflow response under four different land covers: mature cloud forest, pasture, regenerating cloud forest, pine reforestation. Results suggested relatively minor additional inputs of fog to increasing streamflow in cloud forest watersheds, while conversion of forest to pasture did not markedly decrease dry season flows, but did increase annual flows due to lower
Ralph, F. M.; Jasperse, J.
Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) is a proposed strategy that is exploring inorporation of improved hydrometeorological forecasts of land-falling atmospheric rivers on the U.S. West Coast into reservoir operations. The first testbed for this strategy is Lake Mendocino, which is located in the East Fork of the 1485 mi2 Russian River Watershed in northern California. This project is guided by the Lake Mendocino FIRO Steering Committee (SC). The SC is an ad hoc committee that consists of water managers and scientists from several federal, state, and local agencies, and universities who have teamed to evaluate whether current or improved technology and scientific understanding can be utilized to improve water supply reliability, enhance flood mitigation and support recovery of listed salmon for the Russian River of northern California. In 2015, the SC created a detailed work plan, which included a Preliminary Viability Assessment, which has now been completed. The SC developed a vision that operational efficiency would be improved by using forecasts to inform decisions about releasing or storing water. FIRO would use available reservoir storage in an efficient manner by (1) better forecasting inflow (or lack of inflow) with enhanced technology, and (2) adapting operation in real time to meet the need for storage, rather than making storage available just in case it is needed. The envisioned FIRO strategy has the potential to simultaneously improve water supply reliability, flood protection, and ecosystem outcomes through a more efficient use of existing infrastructure while requiring minimal capital improvements in the physical structure of the dam. This presentation will provide an overview of the creation of the FIRO SC and how it operates, and describes the lessons learned through this partnership. Results in the FIRO Preliminary Viability Assessment will be summarized and next steps described.
Pain, Tilley; Kingston, Gail; Askern, Janet; Smith, Rebecca; Phillips, Sandra; Bell, Leanne
Inpatient care is dependent upon the effective transfer of clinical information across multiple professions. However, documented patient clinical information generated by different professions is not always successfully transferred between them. One obstacle to successful information transfer may be the reader's perception of the information, which is framed in a particular professional context, rather than the information per se. The aim of this research was to investigate how different health professionals perceive allied health documentation and to investigate how clinicians of all experience levels across medicine, nursing and allied health perceive and use allied health notes to inform their decision-making and treatment of patients. The study used a qualitative approach. A total of 53 speech pathologists, nurses, doctors, occupational therapists, dieticians and social workers (8 males; 43 females) from an Australian regional tertiary hospital participated in eleven single discipline focus groups, conducted over 4 months in 2012. Discussions were recorded and transcribed verbatim and coded into themes by content analysis. Six themes contributing to the efficacy of clinical information transference emerged from the data: day-to-day care, patient function, discharge and discharge planning, impact of busy workloads, format and structure of allied health documentation and a holistic approach to patient care. Other professions read and used allied health notes albeit with differences in focus and need. Readers searched for specific pieces of information to answer their own questions and professional needs, in a process akin to purposive sampling. Staff used allied health notes to explore specific aspects of patient function but did not obtain a holistic picture. Improving both the relationship between the various health professions and interpretation of other professions' documented clinical information may reduce the frequency of communication errors, thereby
Levine, Adam C; Glavis-Bloom, Justin; Modi, Payal; Nasrin, Sabiha; Rege, Soham; Chu, Chieh; Schmid, Christopher H; Alam, Nur H
Introduction: Diarrhea remains one of the most common and most deadly conditions affecting children worldwide. Accurately assessing dehydration status is critical to determining treatment course, yet no clinical diagnostic models for dehydration have been empirically derived and validated for use in resource-limited settings. Methods: In the Dehydration: Assessing Kids Accurately (DHAKA) prospective cohort study, a random sample of children under 5 with acute diarrhea was enrolled between Feb...
Briggs, P L; Press, F [Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge (USA). Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences
It is stated that pattern recognition techniques provide one way of combining quantitative and descriptive geological data for mineral prospecting. A quantified decision process using computer-selected patterns of geological data has the potential for selecting areas with undiscovered deposits of uranium or other minerals. When a natural resource is mined more rapidly than it is discovered, its continued production becomes increasingly difficult, and it has been noted that, although a considerable uranium reserve may remain in the U.S.A., the discovery rate for uranium is decreasing exponentially with cumulative exploration footage drilled. Pattern recognition methods of organising geological information for prospecting may provide new predictive power, as well as insight into the occurrence of uranium ore deposits. Often the task of prospecting consists of three stages of information processing: (1) collection of data on known ore deposits; (2) noting any regularities common to the known examples of an ore; (3) selection of new exploration targets based on the results of the second stage. A logical pattern recognition algorithm is here described that implements this geological procedure to demonstrate the possibility of building a quantified uranium prospecting guide from diverse geologic data.
This talk explores some of the philosophical issues surrounding the nature of the scholarly record and current challenges in academic libraries. The discussion arises from a 2011 Chronicle of Higher Education feature on a widely influential 1979 article entitled “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Making Under Risk,” which proposed a new model for how people assess risk and weigh decision factors. The theory has been applied to dozens of disciplines and cited thousands of times, and it ...
Ahn, Eunmi; Shin, Dong Wook; Choi, Jin Young; Kang, Jina; Kim, Dae Kyun; Kim, Hyesuk; Lee, Eunil; Hwang, Kwan Ok; Oh, Bumjo; Cho, BeLong
We aimed to assess whether awareness of a terminal illness can affect care decision making processes and the achievement of a good death in advanced cancer patients receiving palliative care services. Awareness of terminal illness at the time of palliative care service admission was assessed by the health care professionals during the routine initial comprehensive assessment process and was recorded in the national terminal cancer patient registry. A follow-up nationwide bereavement survey was conducted, which contained questions regarding decision making processes and the Korean version of the Good Death Inventory. Among the 345 patients included in the final analysis, the majority (68.4%) of the patients were aware of the terminal illness. Awareness of the terminal illness tended to reduce discordances in care decision making (adjusted odds ratio = 0.55; 95% CI: 0.29-1.07), and increased the patients' own decision making when there were discordances between patients and their families (adjusted odds ratio = 3.79; 95% CI: 1.31-10.94). The Good Death Inventory score was significantly higher among patients who were aware of their terminal illnesses compared with those who were not (5.04 vs. 4.80; p = 0.013) and especially in the domains of 'control over the future' (5.18 vs. 4.04; p Awareness of the terminal illness had beneficial effect on the harmonious decision making, patient autonomy, and patient's quality of death. Disclosure of terminal illness should be encouraged. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Keywords: Game ranch management, decision making, risk perception, springbuck. ABSTRACT ..... environment, herd management (herd structure) and marketing and client satisfaction .... Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk.
Treadwell, J R; Lenert, L A
Health values are important components of medical decisions. Experimental data suggest that people value health in complex and dynamic ways. Prospect theory is a descriptive theory of choice that may accurately characterize how people assign values to health states. The authors first provide background on prospect theory and how it can be applied to health values. Next, they review the relevant health research and find mixed support for prospect theory. Last, they discuss implications of prospect theory for cost-effectiveness analysis. The application of prospect theory to health deserves further research because it may help clarify the link between health and values.
Mathew, R; Davies, N; Manthorpe, J; Iliffe, S
Decision-making, when providing care and treatment for a person with dementia at the end of life, can be complex and challenging. There is a lack of guidance available to support practitioners and family carers, and even those experienced in end of life dementia care report a lack of confidence in decision-making. It is thought that the use of heuristics (rules of thumb) may aid decision-making. The aim of this study is to identify whether heuristics are used in end of life dementia care, and if so, to identify the context in which they are being used. A narrative literature review was conducted taking a systematic approach to the search strategy, using the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination guidelines. Rapid appraisal methodology was used in order to source specific and relevant literature regarding the use of heuristics in end of life dementia care. A search using terms related to dementia, palliative care and decision-making was conducted across 4 English language electronic databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO and CINAHL) in 2015. The search identified 12 papers that contained an algorithm, guideline, decision tool or set of principles that we considered compatible with heuristic decision-making. The papers addressed swallowing and feeding difficulties, the treatment of pneumonia, management of pain and agitation, rationalising medication, ending life-sustaining treatment, and ensuring a good death. The use of heuristics in palliative or end of life dementia care is not described in the research literature. However, this review identified important decision-making principles, which are largely a reflection of expert opinion. These principles may have the potential to be developed into simple heuristics that could be used in practice. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/
The REFER (REFer for EchocaRdiogram protocol: a prospective validation of a clinical decision rule, NT-proBNP, or their combination, in the diagnosis of heart failure in primary care. Rationale and design
Full Text Available Abstract Background Heart failure is a major cause of mortality and morbidity. As mortality rates are high, it is important that patients seen by general practitioners with symptoms suggestive of heart failure are identified quickly and treated appropriately. Identifying patients with heart failure or deciding which patients need further tests is a challenge. All patients with suspected heart failure should be diagnosed using objective tests such as echocardiography, but it is expensive, often delayed, and limited by the significant skill shortage of trained echocardiographers. Alternative approaches for diagnosing heart failure are currently limited. Clinical decision tools that combine clinical signs, symptoms or patient characteristics are designed to be used to support clinical decision-making and validated according to strict methodological procedures. The REFER Study aims to determine the accuracy and cost-effectiveness of our previously derived novel, simple clinical decision rule, a natriuretic peptide assay, or their combination, in the triage for referral for echocardiography of symptomatic adult patients who present in general practice with symptoms suggestive of heart failure. Methods/design This is a prospective, Phase II observational, diagnostic validation study of a clinical decision rule, natriuretic peptides or their combination, for diagnosing heart failure in primary care. Consecutive adult primary care patients 55 years of age or over presenting to their general practitioner with a chief complaint of recent new onset shortness of breath, lethargy or peripheral ankle oedema of over 48 hours duration, with no obvious recurrent, acute or self-limiting cause will be enrolled. Our reference standard is based upon a three step expert specialist consensus using echocardiography and clinical variables and tests. Discussion Our clinical decision rule offers a potential solution to the diagnostic challenge of providing a timely and
Prospective Clinical Utility Study of the Use of the 21-Gene Assay in Adjuvant Clinical Decision Making in Women With Estrogen Receptor-Positive Early Invasive Breast Cancer: Results From the SWITCH Study.
Gligorov, Joseph; Pivot, Xavier B; Jacot, William; Naman, Hervé L; Spaeth, Dominique; Misset, Jean-Louis; Largillier, Rémy; Sautiere, Jean-Loup; de Roquancourt, Anne; Pomel, Christophe; Rouanet, Philippe; Rouzier, Roman; Penault-Llorca, Frederique M
The 21-gene Oncotype DX Recurrence Score assay is a validated assay to help decide the appropriate treatment for estrogen receptor-positive (ER+), early-stage breast cancer (EBC) in the adjuvant setting. The choice of adjuvant treatments might vary considerably in different countries according to various treatment guidelines. This prospective multicenter study is the first to assess the impact of the Oncotype DX assay in the French clinical setting. A total of 100 patients with ER+, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative EBC, and node-negative (pN0) disease or micrometastases in up to 3 lymph nodes (pN1mi) were enrolled. Treatment recommendations, physicians' confidence before and after knowing the Recurrence Score value, and physicians' perception of the assay were recorded. Of the 100 patients, 95 were evaluable (83 pN0, 12 pN1mi). Treatment recommendations changed in 37% of patients, predominantly from chemoendocrine to endocrine treatment alone. The proportion of patients recommended chemotherapy decreased from 52% pretest to 25% post-test. Of patients originally recommended chemotherapy, 61% were recommended endocrine treatment alone after receiving the Recurrence Score result. For both pN0 and pN1mi patients, post-test recommendations appeared to follow the Recurrence Score result for low and high values. Physicians' confidence improved significantly. These are the first prospective data on the impact of the Oncotype DX assay on adjuvant treatment decisions in France. Using the assay was associated with a significant change in treatment decisions and an overall reduction in chemotherapy use. These data are consistent with those presented from European and non-European studies. ©AlphaMed Press.
Seah, Angeline S T; Tan, Fiona; Srinivas, Subramaniam; Wu, Huei Yei; Griva, Konstadina
Dialysis prolongs the life of people with end-stage renal disease (ESRD), but for patients who are elderly and suffer multiple comorbid illnesses the benefits of dialysis may be outweighed by its negative consequences. Non-dialytic conservative management has therefore become an alternative treatment route, yet little is known on patients' experience with choosing end-of-life treatment. To gain insight into the decision-making process leading to opting out of dialysis and the experience with conservative non-dialytic management from the patients' perspective. Qualitative study using semi-structured interviews. Interpretative phenomenological analysis was undertaken as the framework for data analysis. N = 9 ESRD participants who have taken the decision to forego dialysis were recruited from the advanced care programme under the National Healthcare Group, Singapore. Participants discussed life since ESRD diagnosis, and the personal and contextual factors that led them to choose conservative management. The perceived physical and financial burden of dialysis both for the individual but most importantly for their family, uncertainty over likely gains over risks which were fuelled by communication of negative dialysis stories of others, coupled with sense of life completion and achievement led them to refuse dialysis. All participants took ownership of their decision despite contrary advice by doctors and were content with their decision and current management. Study highlights the factors driving patients' decisions for conservative non-dialytic management over dialysis to allow medical professionals to offer appropriate support to patients through their decision-making process and in caring them for the rest of their lives. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Rugani, B.; Benetto, E.; Igos, E.; Quinti, G.; Declich, A.; Feudo, F.
Sustainability typically relies on the durable interaction between humans and the environment. Historically, modelling tools such as environmental-life cycle assessment (E-LCA) have been developed to address the mitigation of environmental impacts generated by human activities. More recently, social-life cycle assessment (S-LCA) methods have been proposed to investigate the social sustainability sphere, looking at the life cycle effects generated by positive or negative pressures on social endpoints (i.e. well-being of stakeholders). Despite this promising added value, however, S-LCA methods still show limitations and challenges to be faced, e.g. regarding the lack of high quality datasets and the implementation of consensual social impact assessment indicators. This paper discusses on the complementarity between S-LCA and E-LCA towards the definition of prospective life cycle sustainability analysis (LCSA) approaches. To this aim, a case study is presented comparing (i) E-LCA results of business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios of energy supply and demand technology changes in Luxembourg, up to 2025, based on economic equilibrium modeling and hybrid life cycle inventories, with (ii) a monetary-based input-output estimation of the related changes in the societal sphere. The results show that environmental and social issues do not follow the same impact trends. While E-LCA outputs highlight contrasting patterns, they do generally underlie a relatively low decrease in the aggregated environmental burdens curve (around 20% of decrease over the single-score impact trend over time). In contrast, social hotspots (identified in S-LCA by specific risk indicators of human rights, worker treatment, poverty, etc.) are typically increasing over time according to the growth of the final energy demand. Overall, the case study allowed identifying possible synergies and tradeoffs related to the impact of projected energy demands in Luxembourg. Despite the studied approach does not fully
Candice Howarth; James Painter
Building on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) review of\\ud how to make its Assessment Reports (ARs) more accessible in the future, the research\\ud reported here assesses the extent to which the ARs are a useful tool through which scientific\\ud advice informs local decision-making on climate change in the United Kingdom. Results from\\ud interviews with local policy representatives and three workshops with UK academics, practitioners\\ud and local decision makers are present...
The recent high-profile business ethics scandals are drawing the attention of the theoretical and practical circles on the topic of ethical decision making. Marketing is one of the high-risk areas that easy to trigger ethical dilemmas, in the process of frequent contact between marketers and various stakeholders, a variety of interest groups and values conflict and end up with triggering ethical dilemmas. The studies on marketing ethical decision making in the West start earlier, while the domestic research in this field is only in its infancy. To promote the validation and development of the relevant theoretical and empirical researches, the paper focuses on systematically sorting out and analyzing the theoretical models, measurement scales of marketing ethical decision making in the West,so as to find out the drawbacks of the existing researches and the future research directions.%商业伦理丑闻的频发引起了国内外理论界和实践界对伦理决策问题的关注。市场营销是伦理困境高发领域之一，在营销人员与各个利益相关者频繁接触的过程中，各种利益集团和价值观相互冲突，容易触发伦理困境。西方对营销伦理决策的研究较早，而中国的相关研究还只处于起步阶段。为推进相关理论和实证研究在中国的验证和拓展，文章对西方营销伦理决策的理论模型、测量量表进行了系统的梳理和分析，以发现现有研究的不足和未来研究的方向。
Full Text Available Adjuvant therapy decisions in early breast cancer are based on accurate risk assessment. Urokinase plasminogen activator (uPA and plaminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1 have been the first biomarkers in hormone receptor (HR positive breast cancer to reach highest level of evidence. The EndoPredict test (EPclin combines gene expression information with nodal status and tumor size. The aim of this prospective study was to compare uPA/PAI-1 and EPclin as prognostic biomarkers with regard to feasibility, risk stratification and impact on adjuvant therapy recommendation.395 patients with HR positive, HER2 negative, intermediate risk breast cancer were enrolled. Relations and concordance of histologic grading as well as EPclin and uPA/PAI-1 values were assessed by Spearman's rank correlation coefficient and Cohen's Kappa. To compare decision impact of EPclin and uPA/PAI-1 three independent case discussions were held: One with known uPA/PAI-1 and EPclin results, one blinded to EPclin alone and another one blinded to both EPclin and uPA/PAI-1.EPclin could be determined in all 395 (100%, uPA/PAI-1 in 190 (48% of the tumor samples. EPclin allocated 250 patients (63% to the low-risk group and 145 patients (37% to the high-risk group, whereas uPA/PAI-1 allocated 88 patients (46% to the low-risk group and 102 patients (54% to the high-risk group. In 59% of cases, both tests showed concordant results. EPclin resulted more frequently in a change of therapy recommendation than the uPA/PAI-1 test (46% vs 24%. Recommendation of adjuvant chemotherapy (CTX was abandoned twice as often by EPclin (45% compared to uPA/PAI-1 (22%.In this first prospective comparison of EPclin and uPA/PAI-1 we found, that EPclin is superior to uPA/PAI-1 with respect to feasibility and decision impact. This leads to substantial avoidance of adjuvant CTX in endocrine-sensitive, HER2-negative breast cancer. Data collection for patients´ clinical outcome is ongoing.
Parker, Melissa J; de Laat, Sonya; Schwartz, Lisa
Introduction Prospective informed consent is required for most research involving human participants; however, this is impracticable under some circumstances. The Tri-Council Policy Statement: Ethical Conduct for Research Involving Humans (TCPS) outlines the requirements for research involving human participants in Canada. The need for an exception to consent (deferred consent) is recognised and endorsed in the TCPS for research in individual medical emergencies; however, little is known abou...
Then and the efforts of the National Fuel Alcohol and Portland (ANCAP), to achieve fitness to the actual circumstances of the oil industry, the Resolution of the Executive no.930/993 determining the regime for the presentation offers for the award of exploration and exploitation contratosde of hydrocarbons in the Oriental Republic of Uruguay
Full Text Available The goal of this study was to investigate the dynamics of decision making under risk. In three experiments this dynamics have been explored with respect to probability of outcome and with respect to frame, i.e. the way the outcomes of the alternatives have been specified. The process of decision making was explored within a framework of expected utility and Prospect theory. The outcomes of alternatives as well as their probabilities were quantitatively specified (so that the expected value of a risk alternative was equal to the value of a non-risk alternative. The results of experiments indicate that the attitude towards risk (risk-proneness vs. risk-averseness depends on the outcome probability and the way the outcomes were specified (i.e. positive/negative frame. It was also demonstrated that content strongly affects the choices made in decision making. This outcome is somewhat unexpected and requires additional empirical evaluation.
Yukalov, V. I.; Sornette, D.
The quantum decision theory introduced recently is formulated as a quantum theory of measurement. It describes prospect states represented by complex vectors of a Hilbert space over a prospect lattice. The prospect operators, acting in this space, form an involutive bijective algebra. A measure is defined for quantifying the entanglement produced by the action of prospect operators. This measure characterizes the level of complexity of prospects involved in decision making. An explicit expression is found for the maximal entanglement produced by the operators of multimode prospects.
Chanez, Brice; Bertucci, François; Gilabert, Marine; Madroszyk, Anne; Rousseau, Frédérique; Perrot, Delphine; Viens, Patrice; Raoul, Jean-Luc
A four-parameter score has been identified as associated with overall survival (OS) in patients with advanced cancer with an estimated survival inferior to 6 months. Here, we tested its prognostic value for OS in patients who had received more than two lines of systemic therapy. We prospectively enrolled patients with advanced cancer who were going to receive a third or more therapeutic line outside classical clinical guidelines. The four parameters (Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, number of metastatic sites, serum LDH, and serum albumin) were collected at baseline, allowing to calculate the score, which sorted the patients in three groups, A, B, and C (low, intermediate, and high score, respectively). We then searched for correlations between this grouping and clinicopathological features particularly OS. From August 2013 to March 2014, 65 patients were enrolled and corresponded after determining their score to 26 patients in group A, 30 in B, and 9 in C. The median OS of the cohort was 4.4 months, and the 6-month OS was 42%. Overall survival was different between the three groups, with respective 6-month OS equal to 80% in group A, 17% in group B, and 0% in group C and respective median OS of 9, 2.3, and 1.6 months. Such prognostic value persisted in multivariate analysis. Similar OS differences were observed in patients with PS ≤2. This simple scoring should help oncologists identify which patients, after at least two lines of systemic therapy, might benefit from best supportive care alone.
Lysberg, Frode; Gjerstad, PåL; Småstuen, Milada Cvancarova; Innstrand, Siw Tone; Høie, Magnhild Mjåvatn; Arild Espnes, Geir
The aim of the present study was to investigate the change in overall life satisfaction for different age groups and between genders over a 20-year period. Data from 1984 to 2008 were extracted from a large prospective longitudinal health study of Nord-Trøndelag (HUNT), Norway. The study included more than 176,000 participants ranging from 20 to 70+ years of age. Data were analysed using logistic regression and adjusted for gender. The analyses revealed an increase in life satisfaction for all age groups from 1984-1986 (HUNT 1) to 1995-1997 (HUNT 2), with the highest levels being reached at 2006-2008 (HUNT 3). For all age groups, the data showed an increase of about 20% for the period from 1984-1986 (HUNT 1) to 1995-1997 (HUNT 2). From 1995-1997 (HUNT 2) to 2006-2008 (HUNT 3), the increase in overall life satisfaction was 16% for the younger age groups, and about 32% for the older age groups (40-69 and 70+ years). Women's scores for overall life satisfaction were higher for nearly all age groups when compared to men using HUNT 3 as a reference. These findings suggest an increase in life satisfaction for all age groups from 1984 to 2008, especially for the older age group (40-69 and 70+ years). The data indicate that women score higher on life satisfaction for most age groups as compared to men.
Roesch-McNally, G.; Prendeville, H. R.
A lack of coproduction, the joint production of new technologies or knowledge among technical experts and other groups, is arguably one of the reasons why much scientific information and resulting decision support systems are not very usable. Increasingly, public agencies and academic institutions are emphasizing the importance of coproduction of scientific knowledge and decision support systems in order to facilitate greater engagement between the scientific community and key stakeholder groups. Coproduction has been embraced as a way for the scientific community to develop actionable scientific information that will assist end users in solving real-world problems. Increasing the level of engagement and stakeholder buy-in to the scientific process is increasingly necessary, particularly in the context of growing politicization of science and the scientific process. Coproduction can be an effective way to build trust and can build-on and integrate local and traditional knowledge. Employing coproduction strategies may enable the development of more relevant and useful information and decision support tools that address stakeholder challenges at relevant scales. The USDA Northwest Climate Hub has increasingly sought ways to integrate coproduction in the development of both applied research projects and the development of decision support systems. Integrating coproduction, however, within existing institutions is not always simple, given that coproduction is often more focused on process than products and products are, for better or worse, often the primary focus of applied research and tool development projects. The USDA Northwest Climate Hub sought to integrate coproduction into our FY2017 call for proposal process. As a result we have a set of proposals and fledgling projects that fall along the engagement continuum (see Figure 1- attached). We will share the challenges and opportunities that emerged from this purposeful integration of coproduction into the work
Levine, Adam C; Glavis-Bloom, Justin; Modi, Payal; Nasrin, Sabiha; Rege, Soham; Chu, Chieh; Schmid, Christopher H; Alam, Nur H
Diarrhea remains one of the most common and most deadly conditions affecting children worldwide. Accurately assessing dehydration status is critical to determining treatment course, yet no clinical diagnostic models for dehydration have been empirically derived and validated for use in resource-limited settings. In the Dehydration: Assessing Kids Accurately (DHAKA) prospective cohort study, a random sample of children under 5 with acute diarrhea was enrolled between February and June 2014 in Bangladesh. Local nurses assessed children for clinical signs of dehydration on arrival, and then serial weights were obtained as subjects were rehydrated. For each child, the percent weight change with rehydration was used to classify subjects with severe dehydration (>9% weight change), some dehydration (3-9%), or no dehydration (Dehydration Score and DHAKA Dehydration Tree, respectively. Models were assessed for their accuracy using the area under their receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and for their reliability through repeat clinical exams. Bootstrapping was used to internally validate the models. A total of 850 children were enrolled, with 771 included in the final analysis. Of the 771 children included in the analysis, 11% were classified with severe dehydration, 45% with some dehydration, and 44% with no dehydration. Both the DHAKA Dehydration Score and DHAKA Dehydration Tree had significant AUCs of 0.79 (95% CI = 0.74, 0.84) and 0.76 (95% CI = 0.71, 0.80), respectively, for the diagnosis of severe dehydration. Additionally, the DHAKA Dehydration Score and DHAKA Dehydration Tree had significant positive likelihood ratios of 2.0 (95% CI = 1.8, 2.3) and 2.5 (95% CI = 2.1, 2.8), respectively, and significant negative likelihood ratios of 0.23 (95% CI = 0.13, 0.40) and 0.28 (95% CI = 0.18, 0.44), respectively, for the diagnosis of severe dehydration. Both models demonstrated 90% agreement between independent raters and good
This article explores the potential benefits associated with the use of computers in nuclear plants by the operating crew as an aid in making decisions. Pertinent findings are presented from recently completed projects to establish the context in which operating decisions have to be made. Key factors influencing the decision-making process itself are also identified. Safety parameter display systems, which are being implemented in various forms by the nuclear industry, are described within the context of decision making. In addition, relevant worldwide research and development activities are examined as potential enhancements to computerized operator decision aids to further improve plant safety and availability
Pfirman, S. L.; Bell, R. E.; Zadoff, L.; Kelsey, R.
Exploring the Poles is a First Year Seminar course taught at Barnard College, Columbia University. First Year Seminars are required of incoming students and are designed to encourage critical analysis in a small class setting with focused discussion. The class links historical polar exploration with current research in order to: introduce non-scientists to the value of environmental science through polar literature; discuss issues related to venturing into the unknown that are of relevance to any discipline: self-reliance, leadership, preparation, decisions under uncertainty; show students the human face of science; change attitudes about science and scientists; use data to engage students in exploring/understanding the environment and help them learn to draw conclusions from data; integrate research and education. These goals are met by bringing analysis of early exploration efforts together with a modern understanding of the polar environment. To date to class has followed the efforts of Nansen in the Fram, Scott and Amundsen in their race to the pole, and Shackleton's Endurance. As students read turn-of-the-century expedition journals, expedition progress is progressively revealed on an interactive map showing the environmental context. To bring the exploration process to life, students are assigned to expedition teams for specific years and the fates of the student "expeditions" are based on their own decisions. For example, in the Arctic, they navigate coastal sea ice and become frozen into the ice north of Siberia, re-creating Nansen's polar drift. Fates of the teams varied tremendously: some safely emerged at Fram Strait in 4 years, while others nearly became hopelessly lost in the Beaufort Gyre. Students thus learn about variability in the current polar environment through first hand experience, enabling them to appreciate the experiences, decisions, and, in some cases, the luck, of polar explorers. Evaluation by the Columbia Center for New Media, Teaching
Use of the sensitivity analysis for multi-attributes decision models for oil exploration and production systems; Uso da analise de sensibilidade em modelos de decisao multiatributos para sistemas de exploracao e producao de petroleo
Today, oil companies must be able to survive in a hostile and competitive environment. Such environment involves volatility of oil prices, the narrow margins of profitability, and ever increasing environmental restrictions. In order to survive, firms must have the appropriate tools to consider the tradeoffs involving the financial, environmental, technological and of market parameters which are the key elements within the investment decision-making process. The aim of the present work is to analyze the behavior of the weights (relative importance) of the attributes int the multi-criteria decision model through a high dimension sensitivity analysis. Among the benefits of such method are: provide the analyst (decision-maker) with a better characterization and control of the weights of the attributes, providing the user with a clear view of the entire decision process. The methodology suggested in this dissertation was applied in two oil exploration and production case studies. The first case involved the selection of an exploratory target among three options. In this case, there is interaction of the objectives of the company, where financial, technological and of market parameters interact. In the second case, a hypothetical production project is suggested. For this second study, the decision-maker has the option of using one of the following production systems: a FPSO (Floating, Production, Storage and Offloading); a TLP (Tension Leg Platform); or a SS (Semi Submersible). The attributes for each one of the production systems are financial, technological and environmental. In this second case, the model makes it possible to simulate several options, providing the manager with the choice of the most appropriate production system to this objectives and preferences. (author)
Wees, J.-D. van; Juez-Larre, J.; Mijnlieff, H.; Kronimus, A.; Gessel, S. van; Kramers, L.; Obdam, A.; Verweij, H.; Bonté, D.
In the recent years the use of geothermal energy through implementation of low enthalpy geothermal production systems for both electricity and heating have been growing rapidly in north-western Europe. Geothermal exploration and production takes largely place in sedimentary basins at depths from 2
Emily K. Gonzales
Full Text Available The distribution and abundance of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou have declined dramatically in the past century. Without intervention the most southern population of caribou in eastern North America is expected to disappear within 20 years. Although translocations have reintroduced and reinforced some populations, approximately half of caribou translocation efforts fail. Translocations are resource intensive and risky, and multiple interrelated factors must be considered to assess their potential for success. Structured decision-making tools, such as Bayesian belief networks, provide objective methods to assess different wildlife management scenarios by identifying the key components and relationships in an ecosystem. They can also catalyze dialogue with stakeholders and provide a record of the complex thought processes used in reaching a decision. We developed a Bayesian belief network for a proposed translocation of woodland caribou into a national park on the northeastern coast of Lake Superior, Ontario, Canada. We tested scenarios with favourable (e.g., good physical condition of adult caribou and unfavourable (e.g., high predator densities conditions with low, medium, and high numbers of translocated caribou. Under the current conditions at Pukaskwa National Park, augmenting the caribou population is unlikely to recover the species unless wolf densities remain low (<5.5/1000 km2 or if more than 300 animals could be translocated.
Dall, Sasha R. X.; Gosling, Samuel; Gordon D.A., Brown,; Dingemanse, Niels; Ido, Erev,; Martin, Kocher,; Laura, Schulz,; Todd, Peter M; Weissing, Franz; Wolf, Max; Hammerstein, Peter; Stevens, Jeffrey R.
Variation in how organisms allocate their behavior over their lifetimes is key to determining Darwinian fitness., and thus the evolution of human and nonhuman decision making. This chapter explores how decision making varies across biologically and societally significant scales and what role such
Exploring how different modes of governance act across health system levels to influence primary healthcare facility managers' use of information in decision-making: experience from Cape Town, South Africa.
Scott, Vera; Gilson, Lucy
Governance, which includes decision-making at all levels of the health system, and information have been identified as key, interacting levers of health system strengthening. However there is an extensive literature detailing the challenges of supporting health managers to use formal information from health information systems (HISs) in their decision-making. While health information needs differ across levels of the health system there has been surprisingly little empirical work considering what information is actually used by primary healthcare facility managers in managing, and making decisions about, service delivery. This paper, therefore, specifically examines experience from Cape Town, South Africa, asking the question: How is primary healthcare facility managers' use of information for decision-making influenced by governance across levels of the health system? The research is novel in that it both explores what information these facility managers actually use in decision-making, and considers how wider governance processes influence this information use. An academic researcher and four facility managers worked as co-researchers in a multi-case study in which three areas of management were served as the cases. There were iterative cycles of data collection and collaborative analysis with individual and peer reflective learning over a period of three years. Central governance shaped what information and knowledge was valued - and, therefore, generated and used at lower system levels. The central level valued formal health information generated in the district-based HIS which therefore attracted management attention across the levels of the health system in terms of design, funding and implementation. This information was useful in the top-down practices of planning and management of the public health system. However, in facilities at the frontline of service delivery, there was a strong requirement for local, disaggregated information and experiential
Prospective study of the impact of the Prosigna assay on adjuvant clinical decision-making in unselected patients with estrogen receptor positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor negative, node negative early-stage breast cancer.
Martín, Miguel; González-Rivera, Milagros; Morales, Serafín; de la Haba-Rodriguez, Juan; González-Cortijo, Lucía; Manso, Luis; Albanell, Joan; González-Martín, Antonio; González, Sónia; Arcusa, Angels; de la Cruz-Merino, Luis; Rojo, Federico; Vidal, María; Galván, Patricia; Aguirre, Elena; Morales, Cristina; Ferree, Sean; Pompilio, Kristen; Casas, Maribel; Caballero, Rosalía; Goicoechea, Uxue; Carrasco, Eva; Michalopoulos, Steven; Hornberger, John; Prat, Aleix
Improved understanding of risk of recurrence (ROR) is needed to reduce cases of recurrence and more effectively treat breast cancer patients. The purpose of this study was to examine how a gene-expression profile (GEP), identified by Prosigna, influences physician adjuvant treatment selection for early breast cancer (EBC) and the effects of this influence on optimizing adjuvant treatment recommendations in clinical practice. A prospective, observational, multicenter study was carried out in 15 hospitals across Spain. Participating medical oncologists completed pre-assessment, post-assessment, and follow-up questionnaires recording their treatment recommendations and confidence in these recommendations, before and after knowing the patient's ROR. Patients completed questionnaires on decision-making, anxiety, and health status. Between June 2013 and January 2014, 217 patients enrolled and a final 200 were included in the study. Patients were postmenopausal, estrogen receptor positive, human epidermal growth hormone factor negative, and node negative with either stage 1 or stage 2 tumors. After receiving the GEP results, treatment recommendations were changed for 40 patients (20%). The confidence of medical oncologists in their treatment recommendations increased in 41.6% and decreased in 6.5% of total cases. Patients reported lower anxiety after physicians made treatment recommendations based on the GEP results (p anxiety about the selected adjuvant therapy decreased with use of the GEP.
Gülcan, Ferda; Ekbäck, Gunnar; Ordell, Sven; Klock, Kristin S; Lie, Stein Atle; Åstrøm, Anne Nordrehaug
To explore the association of dental health care utilization with oral impacts on daily performances (OIDP) across time focusing ageing Norwegian and Swedish adults adjusting for predisposing, enabling, and need related-factors as defined by Andersen's model. Data were based on Norwegian and Swedish 1942 birth-cohorts conducted in 2007 (age 65) and 2012 (age 70). In Norway, the response rates ranged from 54% to 58%. Corresponding figures in Sweden were from 72% to 73%. Self-administered questionnaires assessed OIDP, dental care utilization and predisposing, enabling and need related factors. Logistic regression with robust variance estimation was used to adjust for clustering in repeated data. Significant covariates of OIDP were satisfaction with dental services, dental care avoidance due to financial constraints, frightening experience with dental care during childhood and patient initiated dental visiting. Frequency and regularity of dental attendance were associated with OIDP in the Swedish cohort, only. In spite of country differences in the public co-financing of dental care, dental care utilization indicators were associated with OIDP across time in both cohorts. Encouraging regular and dentist initiated visiting patterns and strengthening beliefs in keeping own teeth could be useful in attempts to reduce poor oral health related quality of life in ageing people.
Liem, Esmee Iml; Freund, Jan Erik; Baard, Joyce; de Bruin, D Martijn; Laguna Pes, M Pilar; Savci-Heijink, C Dilara; van Leeuwen, Ton G; de Reijke, Theo M; de la Rosette, Jean Jmch
Visual confirmation of a suspicious lesion in the urinary tract is a major corner stone in diagnosing urothelial carcinoma. However, during cystoscopy (for bladder tumors) and ureterorenoscopy (for tumors of the upper urinary tract) no real-time histopathologic information can be obtained. Confocal laser endomicroscopy (CLE) is an optical imaging technique that allows for in vivo high-resolution imaging and may allow real-time tumor grading of urothelial lesions. The primary objective of both studies is to develop descriptive criteria for in vivo CLE images of urothelial carcinoma (low-grade, high-grade, carcinoma in situ) and normal urothelium by comparing CLE images with corresponding histopathology. In these two prospective clinical trials, CLE imaging will be performed of suspicious lesions and normal tissue in the urinary tract during surgery, prior to resection or biopsy. In the bladder study, CLE will be performed in 60 patients using the Cystoflex UHD-R probe. In the upper urinary tract study, CLE will be performed in 25 patients during ureterorenoscopy, who will undergo radical treatment (nephroureterectomy or segmental ureter resection) thereafter. All CLE images will be analyzed frame by frame by three independent, blinded observers. Histopathology and CLE-based diagnosis of the lesions will be evaluated. Both studies comply with the IDEAL stage 2b recommendations. Presently, recruitment of patients is ongoing in both studies. Results and outcomes are expected in 2018. For development of CLE-based diagnosis of urothelial carcinoma in the bladder and the upper urinary tract, a structured conduct of research is required. This study will provide more insight in tissue-specific CLE criteria for real-time tumor grading of urothelial carcinoma. Confocal Laser Endomicroscopy: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03013894; https://clinicaltrials.gov /ct2/show/NCT03013894?term=NCT03013894&rank=1 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6wiPZ378I); and Dutch Central
Kocher, M.G.; Pahlke, J.; Trautmann, S.T.
We study the effects of time pressure on risky decisions for pure gain prospects, pure loss prospects, and mixed prospects involving both gains and losses. In two experiments we find that time pressure has no effect on risk attitudes for gains, but increases risk aversion for losses. For mixed
Birnbaum, Michael H.
During the last 25 years, prospect theory and its successor, cumulative prospect theory, replaced expected utility as the dominant descriptive theories of risky decision making. Although these models account for the original Allais paradoxes, 11 new paradoxes show where prospect theories lead to self-contradiction or systematic false predictions.…
exploration and elaboration of both rational and intuitive decision making processes. In addition, emotions may also play an important role in...More specifically, it suggests that both rational and intuitive decision making processes are likely to play an important role in ethical decision ...and military literature related to ethical decision making more generally. Specifically, it suggests that both rational and intuitive decision making
Exploring alternate specifications to explain agency-level effects in placement decisions regarding aboriginal children: further analysis of the Canadian Incidence Study of Reported Child Abuse and Neglect Part B.
Chabot, Martin; Fallon, Barbara; Tonmyr, Lil; MacLaurin, Bruce; Fluke, John; Blackstock, Cindy
This paper builds upon the analyses presented in two companion papers (Fluke et al., 2010; Fallon et al., 2013) using data from the 1998 and 2003 cycles of the Canadian Incidence Study of Reported Child Abuse and Neglect (CIS-1998 and CIS-2003) to examine the influence of clinical and organizational characteristics on the decision to place a child in out-of-home care at the conclusion of a child maltreatment investigation. This paper explores various model specifications to explain the effect of an agency-level factor, proportion of Aboriginal reports, which emerged as a stable and significant factor through the two data collection cycles. It addresses the issue of data comparability between the two cycles and explores various re-specifications and descriptive analyses of reported models to evaluate their solidity with regards to the sampling schemes and the precise contribution of a multi-level specification. The decision to place a child in out-of-home care was examined using data from the CIS-2003. This child welfare dataset collected information about the results of nearly 12,000 child maltreatment investigations as well as a description of the characteristics of the workers and organization responsible for conducting those investigations. Multi-level statistical models were developed using MPlus software, which can accommodate dichotomous outcome variables and are more reflective of decision-making in child welfare. The models are thus multi-level binary logistic regressions. Final models revealed that two agency-level variables, 'Education degree of majority of workers' and 'Degree of centralization in the agency' clarify the nature of the effect of 'Proportion of Aboriginal reports', a stable, key second level predictor of the placement decision. The comparability of the effect of this agency-level variable across the 1998 and 2003 cycles becomes further evident through this analysis. By using a unified database including both cycles and various
Biseck, T; Kumwenda, S; Kalulu, K; Chidziwisano, K; Kalumbi, L
The proportions of women of reproductive age living with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) vary between different regions of the world, with significantly higher proportions in sub-Saharan Africa. Family planning is one of the major issues that couples and families affected with HIV must confront. We aimed to assess the cultural and social factors associated with childbearing and family planning knowledge, decision-making, and practices among HIV-positive pregnant women attending antenatal clinic at a health centre in Balaka, Malawi. This was a qualitative descriptive study carried out at Kalembo Health Centre in Balaka. A purposive sampling technique was used to select pregnant women enroled in the antiretroviral therapy (ART) programme. A sample size of thirty-five women was decided upon after data saturation. Qualitative inquiry was used during data collection. Data were analysed using systematic text condensation, while numbers and percentages were generated using Microsoft Excel. Out of 35 participants, 20 were aged between 25 and 34 years, and 18 had been married at least three times. All 35 women wished to have their own biological child. Factors, reported by participants, that promote childbearing included: the desire to please their husbands, fear of losing their husbands to others if they did not bear children, the knowledge that ART would help prevent their children from acquiring the virus, the desire to prove to others that they can also bear children, and a lack of family planning leading to unplanned pregnancies. The factors that lead to pregnancies among women on ART in Balaka ranged from assured safety of the child from HIV, lack of contraception, to other factors related to their partners. The authors recognize and support the freedom for women to become pregnant and bear children, and, in the context of HIV infection, fertility and reproductive services should include a comprehensive approach towards addressing issues of HIV and AIDS and
Pier Luigi Baldi
Full Text Available This article points out some conditions which significantly exert an influence upon decision and compares decision making and problem solving as interconnected processes. Some strategies of decision making are also examined.
Andersson, J.; Andersson, K.; Wene, C.O.
The Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate (SKI) has initiated a project, DIALOGUE, which is exploring the possibility to define review procedures for license applications of nuclear waste repositories, that are acceptable among most actors. Representatives from local communities, environmental organizations and regulatory agencies participate. The core of the project is a game in the form of a simulated hearing on a fictitious application to start construction of a repository for spent nuclear fuel. An important aspect of the project is that the actors are given possibilities for relevant preparations before this hearing. The project started in spring 1991 with a pilot project which was concluded in the end of 1991. The pilot project was followed by a main project which will be concluded in mid 1993. The main project is divided into a preparation phase, a game phase and a review phase. During the preparation phase the application has been updated. The actors group has also invited experts and discussed some issues, notably safety during construction and operation, economical aspects as well as the socio-economic impact on the local communities, raised during the hearing in the pilot study. The game phase leads to a renewed hearing. At the hearing the environmental groups are given a limited budget to invite experts of their own choice
Schmaltz Heidi N
Full Text Available Abstract Delirium occurs in up to 65% of older hip fracture patients. Developing delirium in hospital has been associated with a variety of adverse outcomes. Trials have shown that multi-component preventive interventions can lower delirium rates. The objective of this study was to implement and evaluate the effectiveness of an evidence-based electronic care pathway, which incorporates multi-component delirium strategies, among older hip fracture patients. We conducted a pragmatic study using an interrupted time series design in order to evaluate the use and impact of the intervention. The target population was all consenting patients aged 65 years or older admitted with an acute hip fracture to the orthopedic units at two Calgary, Alberta hospitals. The primary outcome was delirium rates. Secondary outcomes included length of hospital stay, in-hospital falls, in-hospital mortality, new discharges to long-term care, and readmissions. A Durbin Watson test was conducted to test for serial correlation and, because no correlation was found, Chi-square statistics, Wilcoxon test and logistic regression analyses were conducted as appropriate. At study completion, focus groups were conducted at each hospital to explore issues around the use of the order set. During the 40-week study period, 134 patients were enrolled. The intervention had no effect on the overall delirium rate (33% pre versus 31% post; p = 0.84. However, there was a significant interaction between study phase and hospital (p = 0.03. Although one hospital did not experience a decline in delirium rate, the delirium rate at the other hospital declined from 42% to 19% (p = 0.08. This difference by hospital was mirrored in focus group feedback. The hospital that experienced a decline in delirium rates was more supportive of the intervention. Overall, post-intervention there were no significant differences in mean length of stay (12 days post versus 14 days pre; p = 0.74, falls (6% post
Uranium prospecting and exploration in China have almost past a course of a half century. At the boundary of two centuries, what is the trend of uranium prospecting and exploration? The coming uranium prospecting and exploration will be dependent on the enlightenment of new thinking, the guidance of new theories and the support of new technologies and methods. In a word, the authors must set up a creation system for uranium prospecting and exploration. The above-mentioned ideas are discussed
At the European Laboratory for Particle Physics Research (CERN), Geneva Switzerland we are using OracleHR for managing our human resources since 1995. After the first year of production it became clear that there was a strong need for an easy-to-use Decision Support Tool exploring the data in OracleHR. This paper illustrates an approach which we have adopted to provide on-line management reporting, multi-dimensional analysis, drill-down and slicing & dicing of data, warehoused from OracleHR. The tool offers strong resource management and planning capabilities including career follow-up. The user management and security monitoring are implemented using the Oracle WebServer.
Chambers, David W
A decision is a commitment of resources under conditions of risk in expectation of the best future outcome. The smart decision is always the strategy with the best overall expected value-the best combination of facts and values. Some of the special circumstances involved in decision making are discussed, including decisions where there are multiple goals, those where more than one person is involved in making the decision, using trigger points, framing decisions correctly, commitments to lost causes, and expert decision makers. A complex example of deciding about removal of asymptomatic third molars, with and without an EBD search, is discussed.
Jinguanchong uranium deposit is large in scale, which brings difficulties to prospecting and researches. Based on conditions of mineral-formation, geophysics and geochemistry, this paper summarizes a few geophysical and geochemical prospecting methods applied to this deposit. The principles, characteristics, application condition and exploration phases of these prospecting methods are discussed and some prospecting examples are also given in the prospecting for Jinguanchong uranium deposit. Based on summarizing the practice and effects of different methods such as gamma and electromagnetic method, soil emanation prospecting, track etch technique and polonium method used in uranium prospecting, the author finally puts forward a primary uranium prospecting model for the further prospecting in Jinguanchong uranium deposit through combining the author's experience with practice. (authors)
A historical analysis of the uranium market points out the cyclical nature of the market and suggests that the spot price, exploration levels, and mill capacity utilization rate are dependent on economic factors. An examination of the current uranium market suggests that the effects of the forecasted surplus supply, the diminishing returns in exploration and the long lead times and high costs of development may mean that future production levels are uncertain. The general prospects for the uranium industry are also uncertain because of barriers to trade, environmental regulations and public opinion. The paper concludes that by the use of long term contracts, appropriate inventory policy and greater discussion between producers and consumers the prospects for the uranium market can be made more certain and further imbalances in demand and supply can be avoided. (author)
MacKay, J.A.; Lerche, I.
The reason that a corporation might want to take an option on an opportunity is to wait until more information becomes available before committing to the decision to drill. For instance, in a situation where an opportunity is one of the first prospects in a new play trend, there is often very little known (as opposed to surmised) about the potential gain, and the chances of success are also often poorly determined. Thus, until the estimates of costs, gains, and success chances are firmed up in the future by drilling information from other operators, the corporation would prefer to hold off on the decision to drill a particular prospect. Recently Dixit and Pindyck have persuasively argued qualitatively that an options approach should be taken to capital investment in any business field because, opportunities are options--rights but not obligations to take some action in the future and, as soon as you begin thinking of investment opportunities as options, the premise (that investment decisions can be reversed if conditions change or, if they cannot be reversed, that they are now-or-never propositions) changes. Irreversibility, uncertainty, and the choice of timing alter the investment decision in critical ways. From an oil industry perspective Dixit and Pindyck eloquently provide the rationale for considering an option position rather than dealing only with net present value considerations. The ability to calculate the worth of an option to a hydrocarbon exploration opportunity is what this article is about
Yukalov, V. I.; Sornette, D.
A survey is given summarizing the state of the art of describing information processing in Quantum Decision Theory, which has been recently advanced as a novel variant of decision making, based on the mathematical theory of separable Hilbert spaces. This mathematical structure captures the effect of superposition of composite prospects, including many incorporated intended actions. The theory characterizes entangled decision making, non-commutativity of subsequent decisions, and intention int...
Exploring the factors that influence the decision to adopt and engage with an integrated assistive telehealth and telecare service in Cambridgeshire, UK: a nested qualitative study of patient 'users' and 'non-users'.
Cook, Erica J; Randhawa, Gurch; Sharp, Chloe; Ali, Nasreen; Guppy, Andy; Barton, Garry; Bateman, Andrew; Crawford-White, Jane
There is a political drive in the UK to use assistive technologies such as telehealth and telecare as an innovative and efficient approach to healthcare delivery. However, the success of implementation of such services remains dependent on the ability to engage the wider population to adopt these services. It has been widely acknowledged that low acceptance of technology, forms a key barrier to adoption although findings been mixed. Further, it remains unclear what, if any barriers exist between patients and how these compare to those who have declined or withdrawn from using these technologies. This research aims to address this gap focusing on the UK based Cambridgeshire Community Services Assistive Telehealth and Telecare service, an integrated model of telehealth and telecare. Qualitative semi-structured interviews were conducted between 1st February 2014 and 1st December 2014, to explore the views and experiences of 'users' and 'non-users' using this service. 'Users' were defined as patients who used the service (N = 28) with 'non-users' defined as either referred patients who had declined the service before allocation (N = 3) or had withdrawn after using the ATT service (N = 9). Data were analysed using the Framework Method. This study revealed that there are a range of barriers and facilitators that impact on the decision to adopt and continue to engage with this type of service. Having a positive attitude and a perceived need that could be met by the ATT equipment were influential factors in the decision to adopt and engage in using the service. Engagement of the service centred on 'usability', 'usefulness of equipment', and 'threat to identity and independence'. The paper described the influential role of referrers in decision-making and the need to engage with such agencies on a strategic level. The findings also revealed that reassurance from the onset was paramount to continued engagement, particularly in older patients who appeared to have more
It is widely held that Bayesian decision theory is the final word on how a rational person should make decisions. However, Leonard Savage--the inventor of Bayesian decision theory--argued that it would be ridiculous to use his theory outside the kind of small world in which it is always possible to ""look before you leap."" If taken seriously, this view makes Bayesian decision theory inappropriate for the large worlds of scientific discovery and macroeconomic enterprise. When is it correct to use Bayesian decision theory--and when does it need to be modified? Using a minimum of mathematics,
O'Rear, Andrea E; Radvansky, Gabriel A
This study explores location-based prospective memory. People often have to remember to do things when in a particular location, such as buying tissues the next time they are in the supermarket. For event cognition theory, location is important for structuring events. However, because event cognition has not been used to examine prospective memory, the question remains of how multiple events will influence prospective memory performance. In our experiments, people delivered messages from store to store in a virtual shopping mall as an ongoing task. The prospective tasks were to do certain activities in certain stores. For Experiment 1, each trial involved one prospective memory task to be done in a single location at one of three delays. The virtual environment and location cues were effective for prospective memory, and performance was unaffected by delay. For Experiment 2, each trial involved two prospective memory tasks, given in either one or two instruction locations, and to be done in either one or two store locations. There was improved performance when people received instructions from two locations and did both tasks in one location relative to other combinations. This demonstrates that location-based event structure influences how well people perform on prospective memory tasks.
König-Kersting, Christian; Trautmann, Stefan
We probe the pattern of ambiguity aversion for moderate-likelihood gain prospects, and ambiguity seeking for low-likelihood gain prospects, if people make decisions not for themselves but as agents for others. We confirm the pattern both with and without accountability.
Full Text Available The focus of this paper is participatory design (PD; a field that has been in existence since the 1960s. Reflections on a PD project in which the author played a central role revealed that existing literature does not engage adequately with intersubjective decision-making in PD processes. In this paper, appropriation and re-imagination of the Nordic framework for performance-based standards results in a novel multidimensional schema with five mutually related steps. Analysis indicates that the schema has a capacity for enhancing intersubjectivity in PD decision-making while also rendering the process more malleable to multiple viewpoints and their fusion into progressively definitive shared outcomes. In the conclusions, prospects for projective and reflective application of the schema explore its transformative capacity for professional and lay participants and its potential role in engendering critical design pedagogy.
J R, Alameda-Bailén; M P, Salguero-Alcañiz; A, Merchán-Clavellino; S, Paíno-Quesada
The relationship between the use of cannabis and the decision-making processes was explored. A computerized version of the Iowa Gambling Task (Cards Software) in its normal and reverse version was used, and the Prospect Valence Learning (PVL) model, which characterize the process of decision-making based on the parameters: Recency, Consistency, Loss aversion and Utility shape, was applied. Seventy-three cannabis consumers and a control group with 73 nonconsumers participated in the study. In the normal mode, subjects in the control group scored higher than cannabis consumers. Both groups showed consistent responses and aversion to loss. Nonconsumers showed greater influence of the gain-loss frequency, while consumers were more influenced by the magnitude of the gain-loss. The influence of immediate choices was higher among consumers who showed a quick oblivion while in the control group this process was more gradual. In the reverse mode, task performance was better among control group participants. Both groups showed consistency, loss aversion, more influenced by the magnitude of the gain-loss, and low influence of immediate elections. The results show the relationship between drug use and the decision-making processes, being consistent with the results obtained in other studies where consumers had worse results than control group. Moreover, the PVL parameters allow to adequately characterize decision-making. This confirms the relationship between drug use and decision-making by either the vulnerability prior to consumption or the neurotoxicity of drugs.
Recent industry trends indicate that the smaller U.S. independents are looking at foreign exploration opportunities as one of the alternatives for growth in the new age of exploration. Foreign finding costs per barrel usually are accepted to be substantially lower than domestic costs because of the large reserve potential of international plays. To get involved in overseas exploration, however, requires the explorationist to adapt to different cultural, financial, legal, operational, and political conditions. Generally, foreign exploration proceeds at a slower pace than domestic exploration because concessions are granted by a country's government, or are explored in partnership with a national oil company. First, the explorationist must prepare a mid- to long-term strategy, tailored to the goals and the financial capabilities of the company; next, is an ongoing evaluation of quality prospects in various sedimentary basins, and careful planning and conduct of the operations. To successfully explore overseas also requires the presence of a minimum number of explorationists and engineers thoroughly familiar with the various exploratory and operational aspects of foreign work. Ideally, these team members will have had a considerable amount of on-site experience in various countries and climates. Independents best suited for foreign expansion are those who have been financially successful in domestic exploration. When properly approached, foreign exploration is well within the reach of smaller U.S. independents, and presents essentially no greater risk than domestic exploration; however, the reward can be much larger and can catapult the company into the 'big leagues.'
Wieland, Patricia; Almeida, Ivan Pedro Salati de
The scientific considerations upon which the nuclear regulations are based provide objective criteria for decisions on nuclear safety matters. However, the decisions that a regulatory agency takes go far beyond granting or not an operating license based on assessment of compliance. It may involve decisions about hiring experts or research, appeals, responses to other government agencies, international agreements, etc.. In all cases, top management of the regulatory agency should hear and decide the best balance between the benefits of regulatory action and undue risks and other associated impacts that may arise, including issues of credibility and reputation. The establishment of a decision framework based on well established principles and criteria ensures performance stability and consistency, preventing individual subjectivity. This article analyzes the challenges to the decision-making by regulatory agencies to ensure coherence and consistency in decisions, even in situations where there is uncertainty, lack of reliable information and even divergence of opinions among experts. The article explores the basic elements for a framework for regulatory decision-making. (author)
Cooper, R.J.; Bissell, P.; Wingfield, J.
Background: Increasing interest in empirical ethics has enhanced understanding of healthcare professionals' ethical problems and attendant decision-making. A four-stage decision-making model involving ethical attention, reasoning, intention and action offers further insights into how more than reasoning alone may contribute to decision-making.\\ud \\ud Aims: To explore how the four-stage model can increase understanding of decision-making in healthcare and describe the decision-making of an und...
Viksman, S.I.; Kalabin, S.N.; Makalovskiy, V.V.
An examination is made of the possibility of systems approach in prospecting and exploration for oil and gas; the advantages of this approach in purposeful selection of priority directions of prospecting and exploration are given.
Boyes, Mike; Potter, Tom
This research examined the decisions that highly experienced outdoor leaders made on backpacking expeditions conducted by a tertiary institution in the Southern Alps of New Zealand. The purpose of the research was to document decision problems and explore them as Recognition-Primed Decisions (RPD) within naturalistic decision making (NDM)…
The conference includes eight articles on the theme of the meeting including: I - creating an environment that fosters exploration and development ideas; II - integrating a global perspective when setting objectives for exploration planning; III - practical issues is setting exploration objectives; IV - portfolio analysis of exploration prospect of ideas; V - the effective presentation of exploration prospects; V I - the future of information management; VII - assessing exploration assets; and V III - environmental and regulatory considerations when planning an exploratory well. Individual articles indexed/abstracted separately include: articles I, II, III, VII, and V III
in strategic planning and policy formulation on bio prospecting, amongst ... into the challenging field of exploring biological diversity for commercially ...... sions of these regulations, such body corporate, or any person who was purporting to act.
Snider, Joseph; Lee, Dongpyo; Poizner, Howard; Gepshtein, Sergei
The future is uncertain because some forthcoming events are unpredictable and also because our ability to foresee the myriad consequences of our own actions is limited. Here we studied how humans select actions under such extrinsic and intrinsic uncertainty, in view of an exponentially expanding number of prospects on a branching multivalued visual stimulus. A triangular grid of disks of different sizes scrolled down a touchscreen at a variable speed. The larger disks represented larger rewards. The task was to maximize the cumulative reward by touching one disk at a time in a rapid sequence, forming an upward path across the grid, while every step along the path constrained the part of the grid accessible in the future. This task captured some of the complexity of natural behavior in the risky and dynamic world, where ongoing decisions alter the landscape of future rewards. By comparing human behavior with behavior of ideal actors, we identified the strategies used by humans in terms of how far into the future they looked (their "depth of computation") and how often they attempted to incorporate new information about the future rewards (their "recalculation period"). We found that, for a given task difficulty, humans traded off their depth of computation for the recalculation period. The form of this tradeoff was consistent with a complete, brute-force exploration of all possible paths up to a resource-limited finite depth. A step-by-step analysis of the human behavior revealed that participants took into account very fine distinctions between the future rewards and that they abstained from some simple heuristics in assessment of the alternative paths, such as seeking only the largest disks or avoiding the smaller disks. The participants preferred to reduce their depth of computation or increase the recalculation period rather than sacrifice the precision of computation.
Full Text Available The future is uncertain because some forthcoming events are unpredictable and also because our ability to foresee the myriad consequences of our own actions is limited. Here we studied how humans select actions under such extrinsic and intrinsic uncertainty, in view of an exponentially expanding number of prospects on a branching multivalued visual stimulus. A triangular grid of disks of different sizes scrolled down a touchscreen at a variable speed. The larger disks represented larger rewards. The task was to maximize the cumulative reward by touching one disk at a time in a rapid sequence, forming an upward path across the grid, while every step along the path constrained the part of the grid accessible in the future. This task captured some of the complexity of natural behavior in the risky and dynamic world, where ongoing decisions alter the landscape of future rewards. By comparing human behavior with behavior of ideal actors, we identified the strategies used by humans in terms of how far into the future they looked (their "depth of computation" and how often they attempted to incorporate new information about the future rewards (their "recalculation period". We found that, for a given task difficulty, humans traded off their depth of computation for the recalculation period. The form of this tradeoff was consistent with a complete, brute-force exploration of all possible paths up to a resource-limited finite depth. A step-by-step analysis of the human behavior revealed that participants took into account very fine distinctions between the future rewards and that they abstained from some simple heuristics in assessment of the alternative paths, such as seeking only the largest disks or avoiding the smaller disks. The participants preferred to reduce their depth of computation or increase the recalculation period rather than sacrifice the precision of computation.
Contacts between the South Korean nuclear industry and a combined United Kingdom mission representing AEA Technology and British Nuclear Fuels Limited (BNFL) are reported. Prospects for entering the Korean market in two areas are perceived. The first is waste management and the second is the Safe Integral Reactor (SIR), an advanced pressurized water reactor design. AEA Technology and three collaborators have been promoting SIR as an inherently safe reactor design. Korean interest could be expressed in financial backing for the building of SIR stations in Korea and the opportunity could arise for BNFL to win fuel supply contracts. (UK)
professionals will be becoming more adept at scripting, modeling, graphical and statistical displays. Decision makers may, similarly, be less likely to shy...elsewhere in this proceedings (Sanchez 2014) simulation can be the core for model-driven big data and inferential decision-making. We need to stake... descriptive , not prescriptive.” In our field, we deal with prospective decision making. We have an advantage in this area: since our output data are
Attanasi, E.D.; Freeman, P.A.; Glovier, Jennifer A.
and 77 percent of the gas discovered in the study area. The petroleum industry's decision to incur the greater costs of moving offshore and into deeper waters appears to be a response to the absence of onshore prospects of comparable quality. Where natural gas can be commercially developed and marketed, data show an expansion of exploration to target gas-prone areas.
Azadeh Malekzadeh Shafaroudi; Mohammad Reza Hidarian Shahri; Mohammad Hassan Karimpour
Maherabad prospect area, which is studied in detail, is the first porphyry Cu-Au mineralization in the east of Iran. Based on relation of mineralization with subvolcanic intrusive bodies mostly monzonitic with porphyry texture, extent and types of alteration including potassic, sericitic- potassic, quartz- sericite- carbonate- pyrite, quartz- carbonate- pyrite, silicification- propylitic, propylitic, stockwork mineralization, assemblages hypogene mineralization including pyrite, chalcopyrite,...
Prospect Theory (1979) and its Cumulative version (1992) argue for probability weighting to explain lottery choices. Decision Utility Theory presents an alternative solution, which makes no use of this concept. The new theory distinguishes decision and perception utility, postulates a double S-shaped decision utility curve similar to one hypothesized by Markowitz (1952), and applies the expected decision utility value similarly to the theory by von Neumann and Morgenstern (1944). Decision Uti...
Abedi, Maysam; Ali Torabi, S.; Norouzi, Gholam-Hossain; Hamzeh, Mohammad; Elyasi, Gholam-Reza
This paper describes the application of a well-known Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) technique called Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE II) to explore porphyry copper deposits. Various raster-based evidential layers involving geological, geophysical, and geochemical geo-datasets are integrated to prepare a mineral prospectivity mapping (MPM). In a case study, thirteen layers of the Now Chun copper deposit located in the Kerman province of Iran are used to explore the region of interest. The PROMETHEE II technique is applied to produce the desired MPM, and the outputs are validated using twenty-one boreholes that have been classified into five classes. This proposed method shows a high performance when providing the MPM while reducing the cost of exploratory drilling in the study area.
Makanjee, Chandra R; Bergh, Anne-Marie; Hoffmann, Willem A
Decision making in the health care system - specifically with regard to diagnostic imaging investigations - occurs at multiple levels. Professional role players from various backgrounds are involved in making these decisions, from the point of referral to the outcomes of the imaging investigation. The aim of this study was to map the decision-making processes and pathways involved when patients are referred for diagnostic imaging investigations and to explore distributed decision-making events at the points of contact with patients within a health care system. A two-phased qualitative study was conducted in an academic public health complex with the district hospital as entry point. The first phase included case studies of 24 conveniently selected patients, and the second phase involved 12 focus group interviews with health care providers. Data analysis was based on Rapley's interpretation of decision making as being distributed across time, situations and actions, and including different role players and technologies. Clinical decisions incorporating imaging investigations are distributed across the three vital points of contact or decision-making events, namely the initial patient consultation, the diagnostic imaging investigation and the post-investigation consultation. Each of these decision-making events is made up of a sequence of discrete decision-making moments based on the transfer of retrospective, current and prospective information and its transformation into knowledge. This paper contributes to the understanding of the microstructural processes (the 'when' and 'where') involved in the distribution of decisions related to imaging investigations. It also highlights the interdependency in decision-making events of medical and non-medical providers within a single medical encounter. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Medical Radiation Sciences published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Australian Society of Medical Imaging and Radiation
Cosh, Suzanne; Zenter, Nadja; Ay, Esra-Sultan; Loos, Sabine; Slade, Mike; De Rosa, Corrado; Luciano, Mario; Berecz, Roland; Glaub, Theodora; Munk-Jørgensen, Povl; Krogsgaard Bording, Malene; Rössler, Wulf; Kawohl, Wolfram; Puschner, Bernd
The study explored relationships between preferences for and experiences of clinical decision making (CDM) with service use among persons with severe mental illness. Data from a prospective observational study in six European countries were examined. Associations of baseline staff-rated (N=213) and patient-rated (N=588) preferred and experienced decision making with service use were examined at baseline by using binomial regressions and at 12-month follow-up by using multilevel models. A preference by patients and staff for active patient involvement in decision making, rather than shared or passive decision making, was associated with longer hospital admissions and higher costs at baseline and with increases in admissions over 12 months (p=.043). Low patient-rated satisfaction with an experienced clinical decision was also related to increased costs over the study period (p=.005). A preference for shared decision making may reduce health care costs by reducing inpatient admissions. Patient satisfaction with decisions was a predictor of costs, and clinicians should maximize patient satisfaction with CDM.
Edwards, Adrian; Evans, Rhodri; Elwyn, Glyn
Significant conceptual work on shared decision making has taken place but there are still significant challenges in achieving it in routine clinical practice. This paper outlines what research has identified to date that may promote shared decision making, and the further research that is required to enable continuing progress. Greater understanding of the models of decision making and instruments to identify them in practice are still required. Specifying consumer competences, developing instruments to assess these and interventions to enhance them may also be important. Clarifying all these aspects may enable those charged with training professionals to improve the content of professional development programmes. This may be particularly important in the field of cancer treatments where the stakes are high-patients usually desire much information but their desire for involvement in decision making is more variable. The consequences of getting this balance right or wrong are significant with much to be gained or lost. Continued development and evaluation of decision aids and decision explorers that use interactive technology will also be important in identifying how to progress with consumer involvement. If we can learn these lessons, then wider implementation of shared decision making or consumer involvement may become a nearer prospect.
Most demonstrations of how people make decisions in risky situations rely on decisions from description, where outcomes and their probabilities are explicitly stated. But recently, more attention has been given to decisions from experience where people discover these outcomes and probabilities through exploration. More importantly, risky behavior depends on how decisions are made (from description or experience), and although prospect theory explains decisions from description, a comprehensive model of decisions from experience is yet to be found. Instance-based learning theory (IBLT) explains how decisions are made from experience through interactions with dynamic environments (Gonzalez et al., 2003). The theory has shown robust explanations of behavior across multiple tasks and contexts, but it is becoming unclear what the theory is able to explain and what it does not. The goal of this chapter is to start addressing this problem. I will introduce IBLT and a recent cognitive model based on this theory: the IBL model of repeated binary choice; then I will discuss the phenomena that the IBL model explains and those that the model does not. The argument is for the theory's robustness but also for clarity in terms of concrete effects that the theory can or cannot account for. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Lipstein, Ellen A; Brinkman, William B; Britto, Maria T
With the increasing complexity of decisions in pediatric medicine, there is a growing need to understand the pediatric decision-making process. To conduct a narrative review of the current research on parent decision making about pediatric treatments and identify areas in need of further investigation. Articles presenting original research on parent decision making were identified from MEDLINE (1966-6/2011), using the terms "decision making," "parent," and "child." We included papers focused on treatment decisions but excluded those focused on information disclosure to children, vaccination, and research participation decisions. We found 55 papers describing 52 distinct studies, the majority being descriptive, qualitative studies of the decision-making process, with very limited assessment of decision outcomes. Although parents' preferences for degree of participation in pediatric decision making vary, most are interested in sharing the decision with the provider. In addition to the provider, parents are influenced in their decision making by changes in their child's health status, other community members, prior knowledge, and personal factors, such as emotions and faith. Parents struggle to balance these influences as well as to know when to include their child in decision making. Current research demonstrates a diversity of influences on parent decision making and parent decision preferences; however, little is known about decision outcomes or interventions to improve outcomes. Further investigation, using prospective methods, is needed in order to understand how to support parents through the difficult treatment decisions.
Stratmann-Schoene, D; Klose, T
In a recent volume of Medical Decision Making, Treadwell and Lenert stated that under prospect theory, community members compared with patients underestimate the utility of health improvements. In this comment, the authors show that this statement holds only for a subset of possible preference functions. Furthermore, the authors provide arguments that, in general, the rater's current health state is not the appropriate reference level if applying prospect theory to health valuations.
Dando, Coral J; Ormerod, Thomas C
Objective To study decision making by detectives when investigating serious crime through the examination of decision logs to explore hypothesis generation and evidence selection. Background Decision logs are used to record and justify decisions made during serious crime investigations. The complexity of investigative decision making is well documented, as are the errors associated with miscarriages of justice and inquests. The use of decision logs has not been the subject of an empirical investigation, yet they offer an important window into the nature of investigative decision making in dynamic, time-critical environments. Method A sample of decision logs from British police forces was analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively to explore hypothesis generation and evidence selection by police detectives. Results Analyses revealed diversity in documentation of decisions that did not correlate with case type and identified significant limitations of the decision log approach to supporting investigative decision making. Differences emerged between experienced and less experienced officers' decision log records in exploration of alternative hypotheses, generation of hypotheses, and sources of evidential inquiry opened over phase of investigation. Conclusion The practical use of decision logs is highly constrained by their format and context of use. Despite this, decision log records suggest that experienced detectives display strategic decision making to avoid confirmation and satisficing, which affect less experienced detectives. Application Potential applications of this research include both training in case documentation and the development of new decision log media that encourage detectives, irrespective of experience, to generate multiple hypotheses and optimize the timely selection of evidence to test them.
The Business Council of Australia's study on Prospects for Improved Energy Efficiency and the Application of Renewable Energy Resources is summarised. The study estimates that replacement of all off-peak electric units in Australia with solar gas boosted systems would reduce electricity consumption for residential water heating by approximately 25% and almost halve carbon dioxide emissions resulting from residential water heating. Furthermore, substitution of all water heating units in Australia with solar gas systems would reduce total emissions by about 80%. The study concludes that while substitution on such a scale could not readily be achieved even within several decades, the estimates do indicate the significant benefits that might be realised by a long term program. 2 refs., 3 tabs
URL des Cahiers :http://mse.univ-paris1.fr/MSEFramCahier2005.htm; Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques 2005.89 - ISSN : 1624-0340; Since von Neuman and Morgenstern's (1944) contribution to game theory, the expected utility criterion has become the standard functional to evaluate risky prospects. Risky prospects are understood to be lotteries on a set of prizes. In which case a decision maker will receive a precise prize with a given probability. A wide interest on imprecise object ha...
David H. Krantz
Full Text Available We propose a constructed-choice model for general decision making. The model departs from utility theory and prospect theory in its treatment of multiple goals and it suggests several different ways in which context can affect choice. It is particularly instructive to apply this model to protective decisions, which are often puzzling. Among other anomalies, people insure against non-catastrophic events, underinsure against catastrophic risks, and allow extraneous factors to influence insurance purchases and other protective decisions. Neither expected-utility theory nor prospect theory can explain these anomalies satisfactorily. To apply this model to the above anomalies, we consider many different insurance-related goals, organized in a taxonomy, and we consider the effects of context on goals, resources, plans and decision rules. The paper concludes by suggesting some prescriptions for improving individual decision making with respect to protective measures.
Recent industry trends indicate that the smaller US independents are looking at foreign exploration opportunities as one of the alternatives for growth in the new age of exploration. It is usually accepted that foreign finding costs per barrel are substantially lower than domestic because of the large reserve potential of international plays. To get involved overseas requires, however, an adaptation to different cultural, financial, legal, operational, and political conditions. Generally foreign exploration proceeds at a slower pace than domestic because concessions are granted by the government, or are explored in partnership with the national oil company. First, a mid- to long-term strategy, tailored to the goals and the financial capabilities of the company, must be prepared; it must be followed by an ongoing evaluation of quality prospects in various sedimentary basins, and a careful planning and conduct of the operations. To successfully explore overseas also requires the presence on the team of a minimum number of explorationists and engineers thoroughly familiar with the various exploratory and operational aspects of foreign work, having had a considerable amount of onsite experience in various geographical and climatic environments. Independents that are best suited for foreign expansion are those that have been financially successful domestically, and have a good discovery track record. When properly approached foreign exploration is well within the reach of smaller US independents and presents essentially no greater risk than domestic exploration; the reward, however, can be much larger and can catapult the company into the big leagues
Abstract The purpose of this study is to explore the consumers decision making process. In particular, this study attempts to examine consumers negative emotions, which elicit during a decision processing. Especially, the case of a financial decision will be examined. Moreover, consumers negative emotion will be investigated in relation with consumers coping behaviour. To be more specific, the option of seeking advice as a successful consumers coping behaviour will be explor...
Wilburn, D.R.; Stanley, K.A.
This summary of international mineral exploration activities for 2012 draws upon information from industry sources, published literature and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) specialists. The summary provides data on exploration budgets by region and mineral commodity, identifies significant mineral discoveries and areas of mineral exploration, discusses government programs affecting the mineral exploration industry and presents analyses of exploration activities performed by the mineral industry. Three sources of information are reported and analyzed in this annual review of international exploration for 2012: 1) budgetary statistics expressed in U.S. nominal dollars provided by SNL Metals Economics Group (MEG) of Halifax, Nova Scotia; 2) regional and site-specific exploration activities that took place in 2012 as compiled by the USGS and 3) regional events including economic, social and political conditions that affected exploration activities, which were derived from published sources and unpublished discussions with USGS and industry specialists.
Roennevik, H.C. [Saga Petroleum A/S, Forus (Norway)
The paper evaluates exploration technology. Topics discussed are: Visions; the subsurface challenge; the creative tension; the exploration process; seismic; geology; organic geochemistry; seismic resolution; integration; drilling; value creation. 4 refs., 22 figs.
Full Text Available Measuring reaction times to number comparisons is thought to reveal a processing stage in elementary numerical cognition linked to internal, imprecise representations of number magnitudes. These intuitive representations of the mental number line have been demonstrated across species and human development but have been little explored in decision making. This paper develops and tests hypotheses about the influence of such evolutionarily ancient, intuitive numbers on human decisions. We demonstrate that individuals with more precise mental-number-line representations are higher in numeracy (number skills consistent with previous research with children. Individuals with more precise representations (compared to those with less precise representations also were more likely to choose larger, later amounts over smaller, immediate amounts, particularly with a larger proportional difference between the two monetary outcomes. In addition, they were more likely to choose an option with a larger proportional but smaller absolute difference compared to those with less precise representations. These results are consistent with intuitive number representations underlying: a perceived differences between numbers, b the extent to which proportional differences are weighed in decisions, and, ultimately, c the valuation of decision options. Human decision processes involving numbers important to health and financial matters may be rooted in elementary, biological processes shared with other species.
This paper discusses exploration objectives and requirements for a nuclear repository in the U.S.A. The importance of designing the exploration program to meet the system performance objectives is emphasized and some examples of the extent of exploration required before the License Application for Construction Authorization is granted are also discussed
The detailed descriptive information in this book is based on 389 US patents that deal with geophysical and geochemical techniques useful for the exploration of hydrocarbons and minerals. Where it was necessary to round out the complete technological picture, a few paragraphs from cited government reports have been included. These techniques are used in prospecting for oil, coal, oil shale, tar sand and minerals. The patents are grouped under the following chapters: geochemical prospecting; geobiological prospecting; geophysical exploration; magnetic geophysical prospecting; gravitational geophysical prospecting; electrical geophysical prospecting; nuclear geophysical prospecting; seismic geophysical prospecting; and exploratory well drilling. This book serves a double purpose in that it supplies detailed technical information and can be used as a guide to the US patent literature in this field. By indicating all the information that is significant, and eliminating legal jargon and juristic phraseology, this book presents an advanced, industrially oriented review of modern methods of geophysical and geochemical exploration techniques
One of the most important roles of the nuclear reactor operator is that of decision maker. This paper discusses a simple model of the decision process used by the reactor operator. Resources that must be available so that he can perform the decision process are presented. Decision aids which have been investigated at EG and G Idaho, Inc., as part of the LOFT Augmented Operator Capability Program are briefly discussed. Some general concepts of computerized decision aiding are developed, and the promises and pitfalls of such decision aids are explored
Patry, Marc W.; Penrod, Steven D.
A primary goal of this research was to empirically evaluate a set of assumptions, advanced in the Supreme Court’s ruling in Buchanan v. Angelone (1998), about jury comprehension of death penalty instructions. Further, this research examined the use of evidence in capital punishment decision making by exploring underlying mediating factors upon which death penalty decisions may be based. Manipulated variables included the type of instructions and several variations of evidence. Study 1 was a p...
Linde, J.; Vis, B.
Political psychologists have been quick to use prospect theory in their work, realizing its potential for explaining decisions under risk. Applying prospect theory to political decision-making is not without problems, though, and here we address two of these: (1) Does prospect theory actually apply
Linde, Jona; Vis, Barbara
Political psychologists have been quick to use prospect theory in their work, realizing its potential for explaining decisions under risk. Applying prospect theory to political decision-making is not without problems, though, and here we address two of these: (1) Does prospect theory actually apply
Harland, David M
David Harland opens with a review of the robotic probes, namely the Rangers which returned television before crashing into the Moon, the Surveyors which ''soft landed'' in order to investigate the nature of the surface, and the Lunar Orbiters which mapped prospective Apollo landing sites. He then outlines the historic landing by Apollo 11 in terms of what was discovered, and how over the next several missions the program was progressively geared up to enable the final three missions each to spend three days on comprehensive geological investigations. He concludes with a review of the robotic spacecraft that made remote-sensing observations of the Moon. Although aimed at the enthusiast, and can be read as an adventure in exploration, the book develops the scientific theme of lunar geology, and therefore will be of use as background reading for undergraduate students of planetary sciences. In addition, with the prospect of a resumption of human missions, it will help journalists understand what Apollo achieved ...
A uranium prospecting system based on the determination of temperature anomalies in the earth's crust is described. The earth heat flux is measured at preselected points in shallow boreholes in order to detect heat given off as a result of radioactive decay. Localized anomalies are indicative of concentrations of radioactive materials
Azadeh Malekzadeh Shafaroudi
Full Text Available Maherabad prospect area, which is studied in detail, is the first porphyry Cu-Au mineralization in the east of Iran. Based on relation of mineralization with subvolcanic intrusive bodies mostly monzonitic with porphyry texture, extent and types of alteration including potassic, sericitic- potassic, quartz- sericite- carbonate- pyrite, quartz- carbonate- pyrite, silicification- propylitic, propylitic, stockwork mineralization, assemblages hypogene mineralization including pyrite, chalcopyrite, bornite and magnetite and high anomalies of Cu and Au, Mineralization is porphyry Cu-Au-type. MA-I area, which is covered by regolith from its surrounding is the most important section of mineralization in the region because of intensive of quartz-sericite-carbonate-pyrite alteration and very high dense quartz-sulfide veinlets. IP/RS and ground magnetic surveys were conducted in the MA-I prospect area and its surrounding plain. Drilling on the IP suede section anomaly resulted to the recognition of sulfide mineralization in on extensive area under the regolith. Surface and underground detailed studies of geology, alteration, mineralization and geochemistry confirm the extension of covered mineralization to the south and west of the area. Based on the ground magnetic anomaly, the center of mineralization system, potassic zone, to the southwest of the area was recognized. Quartz0sericite-carbonate-pyrite alteration zone, which is located around the potassic zone, has very low magnetic response. IP/RS and ground magnetic surveys in a broader area than before are strongly recommended.
John W. Payne; Dan J. Laughhunn; Roy Crum
This investigation draws upon concepts from prospect theory (Kahneman and Tversky [Kahneman, D., A. Tversky. 1979. Prospect theory: an analysis of decisions under risk. Econometrica 47 263--291.]) and multiattribute utility theory (Keeney and Raiffa [Keeney, R. L., H. Raiffa. 1976. Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs. Wiley, New York.]) in an examination of the multiattribute risky choice behavior of 128 managers. The questions of how managers edit multiattribu...
Chikalov, Igor; Zielosko, Beata
In the paper, authors presents a greedy algorithm for construction of exact and partial decision rules for decision tables with many-valued decisions. Exact decision rules can be 'over-fitted', so instead of exact decision rules with many attributes
Groen-van de Ven, Leontine; Smits, Carolien; Oldewarris, Karen; Span, Marijke; Jukema, Jan; Eefsting, Jan; Vernooij-Dassen, Myrra
This prospective multiperspective study provides insight into the decision trajectories of people with dementia by studying the decisions made and related key events. This study includes three waves of interviews, conducted between July 2010 and July 2012, with 113 purposefully selected respondents (people with beginning to advanced stages of dementia and their informal and professional caregivers) completed in 12 months (285 interviews). Our multilayered qualitative analysis consists of content analysis, timeline methods, and constant comparison. Four decision themes emerged-managing daily life, arranging support, community living, and preparing for the future. Eight key events delineate the decision trajectories of people with dementia. Decisions and key events differ between people with dementia living alone and living with a caregiver. Our study clarifies that decisions relate not only to the disease but to living with the dementia. Individual differences in decision content and sequence may effect shared decision-making and advance care planning.
The volume delivers a wealth of effective methods to deal with various types of uncertainty inherently existing in human-centric decision problems. It elaborates on comprehensive decision frameworks to handle different decision scenarios, which help use effectively the explicit and tacit knowledge and intuition, model perceptions and preferences in a more human-oriented style. The book presents original approaches and delivers new results on fundamentals and applications related to human-centered decision making approaches to business, economics and social systems. Individual chapters cover multi-criteria (multiattribute) decision making, decision making with prospect theory, decision making with incomplete probabilistic information, granular models of decision making and decision making realized with the use of non-additive measures. New emerging decision theories being presented as along with a wide spectrum of ongoing research make the book valuable to all interested in the field of advanced decision-mak...
I discuss some possibilities for neutrino experiments in the fixed-target environment of the SPS, Tevatron, and UNK, with their primary proton beams of 0.4, 0.9, and 3.0 TeV. The emphasis is on unfinished business: issues that have been recognized for some time, but not yet resolved. Then I turn to prospects for proton-proton colliders to explore the 1-TeV scale. I review the motivation for new physics in the neighborhood of 1 TeV and mention some discovery possibilities for high-energy, high-luminosity hadron colliders and the implications they would have for neutrino physics. I raise the possibility of the direct study of neutrino interactions in hadron colliders. I close with a report on the status of the SSC project. 38 refs., 17 figs
The philosophical foundations of the theory and practice of the creation of cosmic humanity as a process of the evolution of human civilization, the emergence into space, with the prospect of resettlement outside the Earth are considered. There is a connection between myths, fantasies, ideas, concepts and projects aimed at the exploration of outer space, the creation of cosmic humanity. A new and voluminous definition of cosmic humanity in the evolutionary paradigm is given. Cosmic humanity i...
Leonardo Yuji Tamura
Full Text Available Quantum Electronics was a Brazilian startup in the 1990's that was acquired by an American equity fund in 2012. They are currently the largest manufacturer of vehicle tracking and infotainment systems. The company was founded by three college friends, who are currently executives at the company: Camilo Santos, Pedro Barbosa and Luana Correa. Edward Hutter was sent by the equity fund to take over the company’s finances, but is having trouble making organizational decisions with his colleagues. As a consultant, I was called to help them improve their decision making process and project prioritization. I adapted and deployed our firm's methodology, but, in the end, its adequacy is shown to be very much in question. The author of this case study intends to explore how actual organizational decisions rely on different decision models and their assumptions, .as well as demonstrate that a decision model is neither absolutely good nor bad as its quality is context dependent.
Battey, G.C.; Hawkins, B.W.
As a result of exploration which recommenced in 1966 Australia's uranium reserves increased from 6,200 tonnes in 1967 to 227,000 tonnes uranium by June 1976. Most discoveries in the early 1950's were made by prospectors. The increase in reserves during the past decade is the result of exploration by companies utilising improved technology in areas selected as geologically favourable. These reserves were established at relatively low cost. In the Alligator Rivers Uranium Province the ''vein'' type deposits at Jabiluka, Ranger, Koongarra and Nabarlek contain 17% of the world's reserves. Most of these discoveries resulted from the investigation of airborne radiometric anomalies but cover over the prospective host rocks will necessitate the future use of costlier and more indirect exploration techniques. There was exploration for sandstone type uranium deposits in most of Australia's sedimentary basins. The greatest success was achieved in the Lake Frome Basin in South Australia. Other deposits were found in the Ngalia and Amadeus Basins in Central Australia and in the Westmoreland area, N.W. Queensland. A major uranium deposit was found in an unusual environment at Yeelirrie, Western Australia where carnotite occurs in a caliche and clay host which fills a shallow, ancient drainage channel. Although caliche occurrences are relatively widespread on the Precambrian shield no other economic deposit has been found. Recent discoveries in the Georgetown area of Queensland indicate the presence of another uranium province but it is too early to assess its potential. The ore occurs in clastic sediments at the base of a volcanic sequence overlying a Precambrian basement. Several companies which have established large uranium reserves have a number of additional attractive prospects. Exploration activity in Australia in 1975 was at a lower level than in previous years, but the potential for discovering further deposits is considered to be high
LaMar, Michelle M
Within-task actions can provide additional information on student competencies but are challenging to model. This paper explores the potential of using a cognitive model for decision making, the Markov decision process, to provide a mapping between within-task actions and latent traits of interest. Psychometric properties of the model are explored, and simulation studies report on parameter recovery within the context of a simple strategy game. The model is then applied to empirical data from an educational game. Estimates from the model are found to correlate more strongly with posttest results than a partial-credit IRT model based on outcome data alone.
Decision ambivalence is a key concept in abortion literature, but has been poorly operationalised. This study explored the concept of decision ambivalence via an Abortion Decision Balance Sheet (ADBS) articulating reasons both for and against terminating an unintended pregnancy. Ninety-six women undergoing an early abortion for psychosocial…
Dunster, H.J.; Farmer, F.R.; Gaines, M.J.
In the Correspondence section of this issue of Nature three letters are published each of which has a bearing on the article by P. Taylor in the issue of 22 February. In that article Taylor calls for changes in the way decisions are taken on nuclear energy matters. The three articles are by H.J. Dunster of the UKAEA Health and Safety Executive, F.R. Farmer, Safety Adviser to the UKAEA, and M.J. Gaines, National Radiological Protection Board. (UK)
Recently the Danish subway trains have begun to announce “on time” when they arrive at a station on time. This action reflects a worrying acceptance of the normality of failure. If trains were generally expected to be on time, there would be no reason to – triumphantly – announce it. This chapter...... by an interest in failure as one way of improving understanding of present-day decision making in organizations.......Recently the Danish subway trains have begun to announce “on time” when they arrive at a station on time. This action reflects a worrying acceptance of the normality of failure. If trains were generally expected to be on time, there would be no reason to – triumphantly – announce it. This chapter...... deals not with traffic delays, but with failing decisions in organizations. The assumption of this chapter is that failing decisions today are as normal as delayed trains. Instead of being the exception, failure is part of the everyday reproduction of organizations – as an uncontrolled effect but also...
This attempts to identify the role of judgmental processes in various nuclear arms/war decisions. That task analysis is done with some confidence. The next two steps, diagnosing potential weaknesses in those judgments and suggesting ameliorative procedures, are done with increasing timidity. The empirical research base is not (ever) as large as one would like. It is particularly weak with regard to studies of experts forced to go beyond hard data and rely on intuitive judgments within their field of expertise. further evidence is needed to substantiate the claim that experts think like everyone else unless they have had the opportunity to master a particular kind of judgment as a learned skill. Although there is both theoretical and empirical reason to believe that various forms of decision aiding are possible, the high stakes involved mandate caution before proposing any intervention. Ineffective steps may make matters worse if they raise confidence without improving performance, or if they disrupt the cognitive ecology within which decision makers are accustomed to functioning, so that they lose touch with their own imperfect intuitions without acquiring viable alternatives
In the paper, authors presents a greedy algorithm for construction of exact and partial decision rules for decision tables with many-valued decisions. Exact decision rules can be \\'over-fitted\\', so instead of exact decision rules with many attributes, it is more appropriate to work with partial decision rules with smaller number of attributes. Based on results for set cover problem authors study bounds on accuracy of greedy algorithm for exact and partial decision rule construction, and complexity of the problem of minimization of decision rule length. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.
Geochemistry studies the distribution of the chemicals elements in the terrestrial crust and its ways to migrate. The terminology used in this report is the following one: 1) Principles of the prospection geochemistry 2) Stages of the prospection geochemistry 3)utility of the prospection geochemistry 4) geochemistry of uranium 5) procedures used within the framework of uranium project 6) Average available 7) Selection of the zones of prospection geochemistry 8) Stages of the prospection, Sample preparation and analisis 9) Presentation of the results
Social animals frequently share decisions that involve uncertainty and conflict. It has been suggested that conflict can enhance decision accuracy. In order to judge the practical relevance of such a suggestion, it is necessary to explore how general such findings are. Using a model, I examine whether conflicts between animals in a group with respect to preferences for avoiding false positives versus avoiding false negatives could, in principle, enhance the accuracy of collective decisions. I found that decision accuracy nearly always peaked when there was maximum conflict in groups in which individuals had different preferences. However, groups with no preferences were usually even more accurate. Furthermore, a relatively slight skew towards more animals with a preference for avoiding false negatives decreased the rate of expected false negatives versus false positives considerably (and vice versa), while resulting in only a small loss of decision accuracy. I conclude that in ecological situations in which decision accuracy is crucial for fitness and survival, animals cannot 'afford' preferences with respect to avoiding false positives versus false negatives. When decision accuracy is less crucial, animals might have such preferences. A slight skew in the number of animals with different preferences will result in the group avoiding that type of error more that the majority of group members prefers to avoid. The model also indicated that knowing the average success rate ('base rate') of a decision option can be very misleading, and that animals should ignore such base rates unless further information is available.
Maifeld, Michelle; Hahn, Sandra; Titler, Marita G; Mullen, Meredithe
To identify salient variables that influence decision making regarding multifetal reduction (MFR) and describe their effect on individuals over time. Prospective, exploratory, descriptive design, using qualitative and quantitative methods. Midwestern tertiary care center. A convenience sample of 11 consecutive consenting couples with triplet or higher-order pregnancies who elected to undergo MFR. Semistructured audiotaped telephone interviews at three points: (a) 2 weeks postreduction, (b) 6 weeks postpartum, and (c) 6 months postpartum; a demographic and marital adjustment questionnaire. Themes identified by content analysis and compared via matrix analysis between males and females and at three points in time; trends in marital adjustment. Dominant variables influencing MFR decision making were risks associated with higher-order pregnancies and preservation of infants' and mothers' health. Most participants identified emotional issues, including moral and ethical dilemmas, as the most difficult aspect of reduction. Over time, participants reported feeling more positive about their decision; nonetheless, negative feelings emerged progressively. Risk aversion favored MFR decision making. Yet, both making and living with the decision were emotionally difficult for this sample. Interventions are needed to assist couples with this decision and its consequences.
Wignall, T.K.; DeGeoffroy, J.
The primary purpose of mineral exploration is to discover ore deposits. The emphasis of this volume is on the mathematical and computational aspects of optimizing mineral exploration. The seven chapters that make up the main body of the book are devoted to the description and application of various types of computerized geomathematical models. These chapters include: (1) the optimal selection of ore deposit types and regions of search, as well as prospecting selected areas, (2) designing airborne and ground field programs for the optimal coverage of prospecting areas, and (3) delineating and evaluating exploration targets within prospecting areas by means of statistical modeling. Many of these statistical programs are innovative and are designed to be useful for mineral exploration modeling. Examples of geomathematical models are applied to exploring for six main types of base and precious metal deposits, as well as other mineral resources (such as bauxite and uranium)
Uranium exploration methods are briefly reviewed: aerial (radiometric, spectrometric), surface (mapping, radiometric, geophysical, geochemical), sub-surface (well logging, boring) and mining methods in the different steps of a mine project: preliminary studies, general prospecting, detailed prospecting deposit area and deposit estimation. Choice of methods depends strongly on geographic and geologic environment. Three examples are given concerning: an intragranitic deposit Limousin (France), a deposit spatially related to a discordance Athabasca (Canada) and a sedimentary deposit Manyingee (Western Australia) [fr
A training course on radiometric prospecting techniques was presented by the Atomic Energy Board in collaboration with the South African Geophysical Association and the Geological Society of South Africa. Various aspects related to uranium prospecting were discussed e.g. the uranium supply and demand position, the basic physics of radioactivity, uranium geochemistry, mineralogy and mobility, the instrumentation and techniques used in uranium exploration, for example, borehole logging, radon emanometry and airborne radiometric surveys and also data processing and interpretation methods
Castellano, Sergio; Cermelli, Paolo
Mate choice depends on mating preferences and on the manner in which mate-quality information is acquired and used to make decisions. We present a model that describes how these two components of mating decision interact with each other during a comparative evaluation of prospective mates. The model, with its well-explored precedents in psychology and neurophysiology, assumes that decisions are made by the integration over time of noisy information until a stopping-rule criterion is reached. Due to this informational approach, the model builds a coherent theoretical framework for developing an integrated view of functions and mechanisms of mating decisions. From a functional point of view, the model allows us to investigate speed-accuracy tradeoffs in mating decision at both population and individual levels. It shows that, under strong time constraints, decision makers are expected to make fast and frugal decisions and to optimally trade off population-sampling accuracy (i.e. the number of sampled males) against individual-assessment accuracy (i.e. the time spent for evaluating each mate). From the proximate-mechanism point of view, the model makes testable predictions on the interactions of mating preferences and choosiness in different contexts and it might be of compelling empirical utility for a context-independent description of mating preference strength. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
In this paper, the author uses the term risk aversion, which weighs the magnitude of investment against four factors: size of available budget, potential gain, potential loss, and probabilities of each outcome. Modern petroleum exploration consists of a series of investment decisions on whether to acquire additional technical data (geological, geophysical, engineering, drilling, or economic) and/or additional mineral interests. Each decision should allow a progressively clearer perception of project risk versus reward and should support timely management action concerning the inferred accumulation. Companies searching for oil and natural gas make hundreds of such exploration decisions each year. So the problem in serial exploration decision making is twofold: to be consistent in the way we deal with risk and uncertainty and to perceive risk and uncertainty accurately and reduce them where possible. Risk aversion is not just a hypothetical nuisance. It causes explorationists to make inconsistent investment decisions, and it costs exploration companies millions of dollars annually in lost opportunities, bad choices, and wasted investment dollars
Full Text Available prospective map are the weights-of-evidence (WofE) method logistic regression canonical favorability analysis neural networks evidential belief functions Optimal Exploration Target Zones Debba, Carranza, Stein, van der Meer Introduction to Remote.... . . ): FITNESS FUNCTION φWMSD+V(Sn) = λ N(A) ∑ −→x ∈A P(−→x ) ∣ ∣ ∣ ∣−→x −QSn( −→x ) ∣ ∣ ∣ ∣ +(1− λ)s2(OSn) , (2) where QSn( −→x ) is the location vector of an optimal exploration focal point in Sn nearest to −→x , and s2(OSn) is the variance...
Mutually exclusive decisions have been studied for decades. Many well-known decision theories have been defined to help people either to make rational decisions or to interpret people's behaviors, such as expected utility theory, regret theory, prospect theory, and so on. The paper argues that none of these decision theories are designed to provide practical, normative and quantitative approaches for multiple mutually exclusive decisions. Different decision-makers should naturally make differ...
Allinson, G.; Elliston, M.
The aim of this paper is to assess the economic attractiveness of exploring for crude oil offshore the North West Shelf of Australia by comparison with selected areas offshore Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines. In order to do this, the technical, quantifiable factors which affect offshore petroleum exploration acreage acquisition decisions at the country level are examined. These factors are historical prospectivity, costs of field development and fiscal regime. Other factors such as political, macro-economic and business risks are not considered. The paper concludes that there are significant differences between the countries as indicated by these measures. Past exploration in the Barrow/Dampier area of the North West Shelf of Australia has shown high levels of success by comparison with the other countries. It is estimated that this relatively high success rate coupled with comparatively low costs of field development and lenient fiscal regimes makes the economics of exploration on the North West Shelf favourable by comparison with those selected areas in the other countries considered. 5 tabs., 4 figs
Decision making in midwifery is a complex process that shapes and underpins clinical practice and determines, to a large extent, the quality of care. Effective decision making and professional accountability are central to clinical governance, and being able.to justify all decisions is a professional and legal requirement. At the same time, there is an emphasis in midwifery on shared decision making, and keeping women at the centre of their care, and research reveals that feelings of choice, control and autonomy are central to a positive birth experience. However the extent to which decisions are really shared and care truly woman-centred is debatable and affected by environment and culture. Using a case study of a decision made in clinical practice around amniotomy, this article explores the role of the intuitive thinking system in midwifery decision making, and highlights the importance of involving women in the decision making process.
The United States must decide whether to permit, delay, or prohibit the reprocessing and recycling of nuclear spent fuel. To permit reprocessing would allow recycle as early as 1985; to delay the decision for a later administration to deal with means spent fuel would mount up at nuclear reactor sites; to prohibit would eliminate recycling and mandate permanent storage. Bayesian decision analysis was used to examine reprocessing costs associated with risks and economic benefits. Three distinct categories of risk that are important in the nuclear fuel cycle are discussed. These are: health, environment, and safety risks; nuclear theft and sabotage; and nuclear weapons proliferation risks. Results are discussed from comparing nine routes to weapons-usuable mterial available to nonweapons states that desire a nuclear capability. These are: production reactor and military reporcessor; research reacotr and military reprocessor; power plant plus military reprocessor or commercial reprocessor; enrichment (centrifuge, gaseous diffusion, electromagnetic separation, or aerodynamic jet cascade); and accelerator. It was found that the commercial power reactor-commercial reprocessor route is comparatively unattractive to a nonweapons state. In summary, allowing nuclear fuel reprocessing to go forward in the United States can be expected to increase the costs to society by a maximum $360 million a year. This is approximately one-seventh of the expected benefit (reduced electricity bills) to be dderived by society from closing the fuel cycle. It appears that the permitting reprocessing now is logically preferable to delaying or prohibiting the technology, the author concludes
We can summarize the IPY goals as: (a) make major advances in polar knowledge and understanding; (b) leave a legacy of new or enhanced observational systems, facilities and infrastructure; (c) excite a new generation of polar scientists and engineers, and (d) elicit exceptional interest and participation from polar residents, schoolchildren, the general public, and decision-makers, worldwide. This talk reports on the progress and prospects in each of those areas from an overall international view; separate talks will describe details of future researcher and the IPY outreach efforts. To achieve major advances in knowledge, IPY has entrained the intellectual resources of thousands of scientists, many more than expected, often from 'non- polar' nations, and representing an unprecedented breadth of scientific specialties; integration of those efforts across disciplines to achieve integrated system-level understanding remains a substantial challenge. Many national and international organizations prepare plans to sustain new and improved observational systems, but clear outcomes and the necessary resources remain elusive. International outreach networks gradually build breadth and strength, largely through IPY Polar Science Days and other internationally- coordinated IPY events. A new Association of Polar Early Career Scientists (APECS) devotes talent and energy to shaping the future of polar research. These activities and networks may, with time and with continued international coordination, achieve an exceptional level of interest and participation. In all areas, much work remains.
Full Text Available During the past years, a rapid growth has been seen in the descriptive approaches to decision choice. As opposed to normative expected utility theory, these approaches are based on the subjective perception of probabilities by the individuals, which takes place in real situations of risky choice. The modelling of this kind of perceptions is made on the basis of probability weighting functions. In cumulative prospect theory, which is the focus of this paper, decision prospect outcome weights are calculated using the obtained probability weights. If the value functions are constructed in the sets of positive and negative outcomes, then, based on the outcome value evaluations and outcome decision weights, generalised evaluations of prospect value are calculated, which are the basis for choosing an optimal prospect.
Jamil, Syed Ahsan; Khan, Khaliquzzaman
Humans are believed to be rational decision makers and documentary evidence proves a significant heterogeneity across individuals when it comes to investment decision making and risk bearing. The study is an attempt to explore and understand the heterogeneity of investment decision when it comes to gender behavior with focus on women. The aim of this research is to explore role of gender in investment decision making and to identify the points of difference between the two genders with respec...
Harrison, Tyler L; Mullet, Hillary G; Whiffen, Katie N; Ousterhout, Hunter; Einstein, Gilles O
We examined the effects of divided attention on the spontaneous retrieval of a prospective memory intention. Participants performed an ongoing lexical decision task with an embedded prospective memory demand, and also performed a divided-attention task during some segments of lexical decision trials. In all experiments, monitoring was highly discouraged, and we observed no evidence that participants engaged monitoring processes. In Experiment 1, performing a moderately demanding divided-attention task (a digit detection task) did not affect prospective memory performance. In Experiment 2, performing a more challenging divided-attention task (random number generation) impaired prospective memory. Experiment 3 showed that this impairment was eliminated when the prospective memory cue was perceptually salient. Taken together, the results indicate that spontaneous retrieval is not automatic and that challenging divided-attention tasks interfere with spontaneous retrieval and not with the execution of a retrieved intention.
Described is the modern state of prospecting and exploration for oil and gas in the territory of the Chechen-Ingush ASSR, and the prospects for discovering new deposits of hydrocarbons in ultradeep horizons are substantiated.
Wansink, B.G.J.; Akkerman, S.F.; Haenen, J.P.P.; Vermunt, Jan; Wubbels, T.
In recent decades we witnessed ongoing debates about the objectives of history education, with different underlying epistemological perspectives. This qualitative study explored prospective history teachers’ beliefs about these objectives of history education. Prospective history teachers of six
Concerns, perceived need and competing priorities: a qualitative exploration of decision-making and non-participation in a population-based flexible sigmoidoscopy screening programme to prevent colorectal cancer.
Hall, N; Birt, L; Rees, C J; Walter, F M; Elliot, S; Ritchie, M; Weller, D; Rubin, G
Optimising uptake of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening is important to achieve projected health outcomes. Population-based screening by flexible sigmoidoscopy (FS) was introduced in England in 2013 (NHS Bowel scope screening). Little is known about reactions to the invitation to participate in FS screening, as offered within the context of the Bowel scope programme. We aimed to investigate responses to the screening invitation to inform understanding of decision-making, particularly in relation to non-participation in screening. Qualitative analysis of semistructured in-depth interviews and written accounts. People from 31 general practices in the North East and East of England invited to attend FS screening as part of NHS Bowel scope screening programme were sent invitations to take part in the study. We purposively sampled interviewees to ensure a range of accounts in terms of beliefs, screening attendance, sex and geographical location. 20 screeners and 25 non-screeners were interviewed. Written responses describing reasons for, and circumstances surrounding, non-participation from a further 28 non-screeners were included in the analysis. Thematic analysis identified a range of reactions to the screening invitation, decision-making processes and barriers to participation. These include a perceived or actual lack of need; inability to attend; anxiety and fear about bowel preparation, procedures or hospital; inability or reluctance to self-administer an enema; beliefs about low susceptibility to bowel cancer or treatment and understanding of harm and benefits. The strength, rather than presence, of concerns about the test and perceived need for reassurance were important in the decision to participate for screeners and non-screeners. Decision-making occurs within the context of previous experiences and day-to-day life. Understanding the reasons for non-participation in FS screening can help inform strategies to improve uptake and may be transferable to other
The Honeymoon joint venturers have been advised that their request for compensation has been refused. This follows the South Australian Government's decision not to grant a mining lease. An application for a retention lease to the joint venturers at Beverley was also refused. The Government has formulated clear guidelines for both retention leases and exploration licences which will be applied to all companies engaged specifically in exploration for uranium
Seher, Rachel; Traugh, Cecelia; Cheng, Alan
This article shows how City-As-School, a progressive public school in New York City, used descriptive inquiry to deepen shared decision making, which is a central value of the school and part of a democratic way of life. Descriptive inquiry is a democratic knowledge-making process that was developed at the Prospect School in North Bennington,…
A consistent investment boost on exploration and development, the favourable prospects connected with technological improvement, the opening of virgin areas of exploration are all factors granting extraordinary opportunities for the oil and gas industry. However, environmental constraints relevant to emission standards and products quality are also growing and will be increasingly binding upon both oil and car industries [it
Gøtze, John; Hijikata, Masao
Introducing the notion of Group Decision Process Support Systems (GDPSS) to traditional decision-support theorists.......Introducing the notion of Group Decision Process Support Systems (GDPSS) to traditional decision-support theorists....
Moffett, Maurice L; Suarez-Almazor, Maria E
Prospect theory is the prominent nonexpected utility theory in the estimation of health state preference scores for quality-adjusted life year calculation. Until recently, the theory was not considered to be developed to the point of implementation in economic analysis. This review focuses on the research and evidence that tests the implementation of prospect theory into health state valuation. The typical application of expected utility theory assumes that a decision maker has stable preferences under conditions of risk and uncertainty. Under prospect theory, preferences are dependent on whether the decision maker regards the outcome of a choice as a gain or loss, relative to a reference point. The conceptual preference for standard gamble utilities in the valuation of health states has led to the development of elicitation techniques. Empirical evidence using these techniques indicates that when individual preferences are elicited, a prospect theory consistent framework appears to be necessary for adequate representation of individual health utilities. The relevance of prospect theory to policy making and resource allocation remains to be established. Societal preferences may not need the same attitudes towards risks as individual preferences, and may remain largely risk neutral.
Full Text Available One of the leading descriptive theories of decision-making under risk, Tversky & Kahneman's Prospect theory, reveals that normative explanation of decisionmaking, based only on principle of maximizing outcomes expected utility, is unsustainable. It also underlines the effect of alternative factors on decision-making. Framing effect relates to an influence that verbal formulation of outcomes has on choosing between certain and risky outcomes; in negative frame people tend to be risk seeking, whereas in positive frame people express risk averse tendencies. Individual decisions are not based on objective probabilities of outcomes, but on subjective probabilities that depend on outcome desirability. Unrealistically pessimistic subjects assign lower probabilities (than the group average to the desired outcomes, while unrealistically optimistic subjects assign higher probabilities (than the group average to the desired outcomes. Experiment was conducted in order to test the presumption that there's a relation between unrealistic optimism and decision-making under risk. We expected optimists to be risk seeking, and pessimist to be risk averse. We also expected such cognitive tendencies, if they should become manifest, to be framing effect resistant. Unrealistic optimism scale was applied, followed by the questionnaire composed of tasks of decision-making under risk. Results within the whole sample, and results of afterwards extracted groups of pessimists and optimists both revealed dominant risk seeking tendency that is resistant to the influence of subjective probabilities as well as to the influence of frame in which the outcome is presented.
Full Text Available Introducción. El pase de guardia es una actividad médica en la que se transfiere información y responsabilidad entre profesionales en situaciones de discontinuidad o transiciones en el cuidado de los pacientes. Los pases de guardia son fuente de errores médicos, a pesar de lo cual la programación formal en la competencia específica está ausente en los currículos de las residencias médicas. En este sentido, implementamos el proyecto educativo 'Pase de guardia oral y escrito en la residencia de clínica médica'. Materiales y métodos. Definimos el constructo 'información relevante' a partir de cinco ítems, uno sistémico y cuatro cognitivos. Se analizó la prevalencia de los déficits de información relevante y su repercusión sobre la práctica clínica. Resultados. En 230 protocolos de guardia, la prevalencia de déficits de información relevante fue del 31,3% (n = 72 y afectó tanto al ítem sistémico (11% como a los ítems con contenidos sustantivos (20%. Con información relevante, las conductas activas fueron del 34,6%, y las pasivas, del 65,4%; con déficits de información relevante, las activas fueron del 13,9%, y las pasivas, del 86,1%. Estas diferencias fueron significativas (p Introduction. Handoffs are medical activity which transfers information and responsibility among professionals in situations of discontinuity or transitions in patient care. Handoffs are source of medical errors and adverse events, which despite the formal programming of specific competencies are absent in the curricula of medical residencies. In this sense, we implemented the educational project 'Oral and written handoffs in internal medicine residency program'. Materials and methods. We defined the parameter relevant information with a systemic item and four other cognitive items; we assess the prevalence of relevant information deficits and the effects on the clinical practice in a prospective study. Results. In 230 protocols the prevalence of
Mimoun, David; Wieczorek, Mark A.; Alkalai, Leon
the primary differentiation and evolution of the Moon, it can be continuously monitored from the Earth-Moon L2 Lagrange point, and there is a complete lack of reflected solar illumination from the Earth. Farside Explorer will exploit these properties and make the first radio-astronomy measurements from...... the most radio-quiet region of near-Earth space, determine the internal structure and thermal evolution of the Moon, from crust to core, and quantify impact hazards in near-Earth space by the measurement of flashes generated by impact events. The Farside Explorer flight system includes two identical solar......Farside Explorer is a proposed Cosmic Vision medium-size mission to the farside of the Moon consisting of two landers and an instrumented relay satellite. The farside of the Moon is a unique scientific platform in that it is shielded from terrestrial radio-frequency interference, it recorded...
Retrospectively exploring the importance of items in the decision to leave the emergency medical services (EMS) profession and their relationships to life satisfaction after leaving EMS and likelihood of returning to EMS.
Blau, Gary; Chapman, Susan
An exit survey was returned by a sample of 127 respondents in fully compensated positions who left the EMS profession, most within 12 months prior to filling out the exit survey. A very high percentage continued to work after leaving EMS. Respondents were asked to rate the importance of each of 17 items in affecting their decision to leave EMS. A higher than anticipated response to a "not applicable" response choice affected the usability of 8 of these items. Nine of the 17 items had at least 65 useable responses and were used for further analysis. Within these 9, stress/burnout and lack of job challenges had the highest importance in affecting the decision to leave EMS, while desire for better pay and benefits had the lowest importance. Desire for career change was positively related to life satisfaction after leaving EMS and negatively related to likelihood of returning to EMS. Stress/burnout was positively related to life satisfaction after leaving EMS. Study limitations and future research issues are briefly discussed.
Mokhles, S; Nuyttens, J J M E; de Mol, M; Aerts, J G J V; Maat, A P W M; Birim, Ö; Bogers, A J J C; Takkenberg, J J M
The objective of this study is to investigate the role and experience of early stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patient in decision making process concerning treatment selection in the current clinical practice. Stage I-II NSCLC patients (surgery 55 patients, SBRT 29 patients, median age 68) were included in this prospective study and completed a questionnaire that explored: (1) perceived patient knowledge of the advantages and disadvantages of the treatment options, (2) experience with current clinical decision making, and (3) the information that the patient reported to have received from their treating physician. This was assessed by multiple-choice, 1-5 Likert Scale, and open questions. The Decisional Conflict Scale was used to assess the decisional conflict. Health related quality of life (HRQoL) was measured with SF-36 questionnaire. In 19% of patients, there was self-reported perceived lack of knowledge about the advantages and disadvantages of the treatment options. Seventy-four percent of patients felt that they were sufficiently involved in decision-making by their physician, and 81% found it important to be involved in decision making. Forty percent experienced decisional conflict, and one-in-five patients to such an extent that it made them feel unsure about the decision. Subscores with regard to feeling uninformed and on uncertainty, contributed the most to decisional conflict, as 36% felt uninformed and 17% of patients were not satisfied with their decision. HRQoL was not influenced by patient experience with decision-making or patient preferences for shared decision making. Dutch early-stage NSCLC patients find it important to be involved in treatment decision making. Yet a substantial proportion experiences decisional conflict and feels uninformed. Better patient information and/or involvement in treatment-decision-making is needed in order to improve patient knowledge and hopefully reduce decisional conflict.
De Voto, R.H.
This paper is a review of the methodology and technology that are currently being used in varying degrees in uranium exploration activities worldwide. Since uranium is ubiquitous and occurs in trace amounts (0.2 to 5 ppm) in virtually all rocks of the crust of the earth, exploration for uranium is essentially the search of geologic environments in which geologic processes have produced unusual concentrations of uranium. Since the level of concentration of uranium of economic interest is dependent on the present and future price of uranium, it is appropriate here to review briefly the economic realities of uranium-fueled power generation. (author)
Porfeli, Erik J.; Skorikov, Vladimir B.
The exploration literature suggests that career exploration may be separated into two distinct forms. Diversive career exploration involves learning broadly about the world of work and the self, whereas specific career exploration involves an in-depth investigation focused on aligning one's perceptions of self and career prospects. The goal of the…
Lipstein, Ellen A.; Brinkman, William B.; Britto, Maria T.
Background With the increasing complexity of decisions in pediatric medicine, there is a growing need to understand the pediatric decision-making process. Objective To conduct a narrative review of the current research on parent decision making about pediatric treatments and identify areas in need of further investigation. Methods Articles presenting original research on parent decision making were identified from MEDLINE (1966–6/2011), using the terms “decision making,” “parent,” and “child.” We included papers focused on treatment decisions but excluded those focused on information disclosure to children, vaccination, and research participation decisions. Results We found 55 papers describing 52 distinct studies, the majority being descriptive, qualitative studies of the decision-making process, with very limited assessment of decision outcomes. Although parents’ preferences for degree of participation in pediatric decision making vary, most are interested in sharing the decision with the provider. In addition to the provider, parents are influenced in their decision making by changes in their child’s health status, other community members, prior knowledge, and personal factors, such as emotions and faith. Parents struggle to balance these influences as well as to know when to include their child in decision making. Conclusions Current research demonstrates a diversity of influences on parent decision making and parent decision preferences; however, little is known about decision outcomes or interventions to improve outcomes. Further investigation, using prospective methods, is needed in order to understand how to support parents through the difficult treatment decisions. PMID:21969136
During the last few years geochemical prospecting techniques have become common usage in the field of mineral deposit prospecting. The real scope of these methods lies in their use in the prospecting of large areas. The most promising use of the geochemistry and hydro-geochemistry of uranium is in heavily forested tropical territories, with few outcrops, where radiometry is strongly handicapped. (author) [fr
Schmidt, Ulrich; Zank, Horst
In previous models of (cumulative) prospect theory reference-dependence of preferences is imposed beforehand and the location of the reference point is exogenously determined. This paper provides an axiomatization of a new specification of cumulative prospect theory, termed endogenous prospect theory, where reference-dependence is derived from preference conditions and a unique reference point arises endogenously.
This study provides support to the Bank's ability to conduct client dialogue on solid waste management technology selection, and will contribute to client decision-making. The goal of the study was to fully explore the use of the United States Environmental Protection Agency and the Research Triangle Institute (EPA/RTI) holistic decision model to study alternative solid waste systems in a ...
Ahl, David H.
The "College Explorer" is a software package (for the 64K Apple II, IBM PC, TRS-80 model III and 4 microcomputers) which aids in choosing a college. The major features of this package (manufactured by The College Board) are described and evaluated. Sample input/output is included. (JN)
Brand, Judith, Ed.
"Exploring" is a magazine of science, art, and human perception that communicates ideas museum exhibits cannot demonstrate easily by using experiments and activities for the classroom. This issue concentrates on size, examining it from a variety of viewpoints. The focus allows students to investigate and discuss interconnections among…
Yukalov, V. I.; Yukalova, E. P.; Sornette, D.
We suggest a model of a multi-agent society of decision makers taking decisions being based on two criteria, one is the utility of the prospects and the other is the attractiveness of the considered prospects. The model is the generalization of quantum decision theory, developed earlier for single decision makers realizing one-step decisions, in two principal aspects. First, several decision makers are considered simultaneously, who interact with each other through information exchange. Second, a multistep procedure is treated, when the agents exchange information many times. Several decision makers exchanging information and forming their judgment, using quantum rules, form a kind of a quantum information network, where collective decisions develop in time as a result of information exchange. In addition to characterizing collective decisions that arise in human societies, such networks can describe dynamical processes occurring in artificial quantum intelligence composed of several parts or in a cluster of quantum computers. The practical usage of the theory is illustrated on the dynamic disjunction effect for which three quantitative predictions are made: (i) the probabilistic behavior of decision makers at the initial stage of the process is described; (ii) the decrease of the difference between the initial prospect probabilities and the related utility factors is proved; (iii) the existence of a common consensus after multiple exchange of information is predicted. The predicted numerical values are in very good agreement with empirical data.
This paper examines rational and psychological decision-making models. Descriptive and normative methodologies such as attribution theory, schema theory, prospect theory, ambiguity model, game theory, and expected utility theory are discussed. The definition of culture is reviewed, and the relationship between culture and decision making is also highlighted as many organizations use a cultural-ethical decision-making model.
Schnitzspahn, Katharina M; Horn, Sebastian S; Bayen, Ute J; Kliegel, Matthias
While first studies suggested that emotional task material may enhance prospective memory performance in young and older adults, the extent and mechanisms of this effect are under debate. The authors explored possible differential effects of cue valence on the prospective and retrospective component of prospective memory in young and older adults. Forty-five young and 41 older adults performed a prospective memory task in which emotional valence of the prospective memory cue was manipulated (positive, negative, neutral). The multinomial model of event-based prospective memory was used to analyze effects of valence and age on the two prospective memory components separately. Results revealed an interaction indicating that age differences were smaller in both emotional valence conditions. For older adults positive cues improved the prospective component, while negative cues improved the retrospective component. No main effect of valence was found for younger adults on an overt accuracy measure, but model-based analyses showed that the retrospective component was enhanced in the positive compared with the negative cue condition. The study extends the literature in demonstrating that processes underlying emotional effects on prospective memory may differ depending on valence and age. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved
Short, N. M.
Results from the ERTS program pertinent to exploration for oil, gas, and uranium are discussed. A review of achievements in relevant geological studies from ERTS, and a survey of accomplishments oriented towards exploration for energy sources are presented along with an evaluation of the prospects and limitations of the space platform approach to fuel exploration, and an examination of continuing programs designed to prove out the use of ERTS and other space system in exploring for fuel resources.
Decision making process in oil exploration and production projects: a systemic approach by means of fuzzy logic theory application; Processo de tomada de decisao em projetos de exploracao e producao de petroleo: uma abordagem sistemica com aplicacao da teoria de logica fuzzy
Brana, Juan Pablo
Oil is a non-renewable resource and maximizing the efficiency of its use is of the utmost importance, not only to private companies and the generation of their profit, but also to governments and their energy, economic and territorial planning. The aims of this thesis are, on the one hand, to breakdown, by means of a systemic approach, the complexity of the decision-making process in oil exploration and production projects (E and P), explaining, whenever possible, the theories and relationships that underlie their modeling contexts, and, on the other, to create a model - in the case of a specific E and P problem - to support the decision-making process, using the fuzzy logic theory. The variables analyzed include the probability of the exploration process achieving success, the size of reserves, the level or burden of taxation and the price of oil. In the case of the latter, the price of oil, the elements necessary for the elaboration of different scenarios have been provided. Finally, this model has been applied to a case study, providing continuity to previous work and discussing the results obtained. (author)
Full Text Available The main purpose of this study is to explore the relation between decision-making styles which are measured by the General decision-making style (GDMS test and information processing styles which are often termed cognitive styles and are, in this study, measured by Cognitive Style Inventory. The authors directed a survey research on 162 Iranian students. Structural equation modeling techniques were used to measure the impact of cognitive styles on decision-making styles. The authors found that cognitive styles have a positive impact on decision-making styles. In spite of the abundant research on factors that affect decision-making styles, few researches have tested the relationship between cognitive styles and decision-making styles. This study examines the impact of cognitive styles on decision-making styles in Iran. This study, like most research paper studies, cannot easily be generalized. Furthermore, the results of this study could be affected by economic conditions.
Boland, Laura; McIsaac, Daniel I; Lawson, Margaret L
To explore multiple stakeholders' perceived barriers to and facilitators of implementing shared decision making and decision support in a tertiary paediatric hospital. An interpretive descriptive qualitative study was conducted using focus groups and interviews to examine senior hospital administrators', clinicians', parents' and youths' perceived barriers to and facilitators of shared decision making and decision support implementation. Data were analyzed using inductive thematic analysis. Fifty-seven stakeholders participated. Six barrier and facilitator themes emerged. The main barrier was gaps in stakeholders' knowledge of shared decision making and decision support. Facilitators included compatibility between shared decision making and the hospital's culture and ideal practices, perceptions of positive patient and family outcomes associated with shared decision making, and positive attitudes regarding shared decision making and decision support. However, youth attitudes regarding the necessity and usefulness of a decision support program were a barrier. Two themes were both a barrier and a facilitator. First, stakeholder groups were uncertain which clinical situations are suitable for shared decision making (eg, new diagnoses, chronic illnesses, complex decisions or urgent decisions). Second, the clinical process may be hindered if shared decision making and decision support decrease efficiency and workflow; however, shared decision making may reduce repeat visits and save time over the long term. Specific knowledge translation strategies that improve shared decision making knowledge and match specific barriers identified by each stakeholder group may be required to promote successful shared decision making and decision support implementation in the authors' paediatric hospital.
Jaime Quesada Kimzey
Full Text Available Se da una idea general sobre el tema de la carbonización de residuos biomásicos, y se describen brevemente dos proyectos en esta área de investigación que en el primer semestre del 2012 se desarrollan en el Tecnológico de Costa Rica (TEC.Ambos proyectos están enfocados en la carbonización de residuos biomásicos del beneficiado del café y se realizan en colaboración con Coopetarrazú. El que dio inicio en el 2011 está dedicado a la carbonización de material seco, y abordará tanto el uso energético como el uso agrícola del biocarbón. El que dio inicio en el 2012 está enfocado en la carbonización hidrotérmica de biomasa presente en las aguamieles.This paper offers a general view of the subject of carbonization of waste biomass. Just as well, it briefly describes two related projects currently under execution at the TEC. Both projects are focused on carbonization of waste biomass from the industrial processing of coffee, in a joint effort with Coopetarrazú.The project initiated in 2011 is dedicated to carbonization of dried wastes and will explore energetic as well as agricultural use of the charcoal. The one initiating in 2012 focuses on the hydrothermal carbonization of biomass in waste slurries.
Leone, Frank T; Evers-Casey, Sarah; Graden, Sarah; Schnoll, Robert
Physicians self-report high adherence rates for Ask and Advise behaviors of tobacco dependence treatment but are much less likely to engage in "next steps" consistent with sophisticated management of chronic illness. A variety of potential explanations have been offered, yet each lacks face validity in light of experience with other challenging medical conditions. Conduct a preliminary exploration of the behavioral economics of tobacco treatment decision-making in the face of uncertain outcomes, seeking evidence that behaviors may be explained within the framework of Prospect Theory. Four physician cohorts were polled regarding their impressions of the utility of tobacco use treatment and their estimations of "success" probabilities. Contingent valuation was estimated by asking respondents to make monetary tradeoffs relative to three common chronic conditions. Responses from all four cohorts showed a similar pattern of high utility of tobacco use treatment but low success probability when compared with the other chronic medical conditions. Following instructional methods aimed at controverting cognitive biases related to tobacco, this pattern was reversed, with success probabilities attaining higher valuation than for diabetes. Important presuppositions regarding the potential "success" of tobacco-related patient interactions are likely limiting physician engagement by favoring the most secure visit outcome despite the limited potential for health gains. Under these conditions, low engagement rates would be consistent with Prospect Theory predictions. Interventions aimed at counteracting the cognitive biases limiting estimations of success probabilities seem to effectively reverse this pattern and provide clues to improving the adoption of target clinical behaviors.
Peng, Chi-Han; Barton, Michael; Jiang, Caigui; Wonka, Peter
Here we presented a framework to explore quad mesh topologies. The core of our work is a systematic enumeration algorithm that can generate all possible quadrangular meshes inside a defined boundary with an upper limit of v3-v5 pairs. The algorithm is orders of magnitude more efficient than previous work. The combination of topological enumeration and shape-space exploration demonstrates that mesh topology has a powerful influence on geometry. The Fig. 18. A gallery of different quadrilateral meshes for a Shuriken. The quadrilaterals of the model were colored in a postprocess. Topological variations have distinctive, interesting patterns of mesh lines. © 2014 ACM 0730-0301/2014/01-ART3 15.00.
Here we presented a framework to explore quad mesh topologies. The core of our work is a systematic enumeration algorithm that can generate all possible quadrangular meshes inside a defined boundary with an upper limit of v3-v5 pairs. The algorithm is orders of magnitude more efficient than previous work. The combination of topological enumeration and shape-space exploration demonstrates that mesh topology has a powerful influence on geometry. The Fig. 18. A gallery of different quadrilateral meshes for a Shuriken. The quadrilaterals of the model were colored in a postprocess. Topological variations have distinctive, interesting patterns of mesh lines. © 2014 ACM 0730-0301/2014/01-ART3 15.00.
Chhipa, V.K.; Sengupta, M.
Artificial intelligence is an emerging technology in the field of computer application. Expert systems have been developed to imitate human intelligence and reasoning process. Expert systems have much scope of application in the decision making process in mineral exploration as such decisions are highly subjective and expert opinions are very helpful. This paper presents a small expert system to analyze the reasoning process in exploring for uranium deposits in sandstone
Hyejin An; Seung-Hee Lee
Purpose This study is to analyze the effects of medical students? social support and career barriers on career exploration behavior mediated by career decision-making self-efficacy. Methods We applied the t-test to investigate the difference among the variables based on gender and admission types. Also, we performed path analysis to verify the effect of perceived career barriers and social support on career exploration behavior with career decision efficacy as a mediator. Results First, we no...
Die explorative Faktorenanalyse (EFA) ist ein Verfahren aus der multivariaten Statistik. Mithilfe der Faktorenanalyse kann aus den Beobachtungen vieler manifester Variablen (z .B Items eines Fragebogens) auf wenige zugrunde liegende latente Variablen, die Faktoren genannt werden, geschlossen werden. Eine EFA führt zu einer Reduktion der Variablen auf wenige, den manifesten Variablen zugrunde liegende Faktoren. Der folgende Text gibt einen Überblick über die Grundlagen der EFA sowie der wichti...
Kou, Meng; Lu, Na
The study applies the research results of prospect theory and multi attribute decision making theory, combined with the complexity, uncertainty and multifactor influence of the underground mine fire system and takes the decision makers’ psychological behavior of emotion and intuition into full account to establish the intuitionistic fuzzy multiple attribute decision making method that is based on the prospect theory. The model established by this method can explain the decision maker’s safety evacuation decision behavior in the complex system of underground mine fire due to the uncertainty of the environment, imperfection of the information and human psychological behavior and other factors.
African Review of Economics and Finance, Vol 4, No. 2, June ... This book explores the perils and prospects of microfinance by looking at the issue ... qualitative data, and a list of references that could be useful to readers who want to learn ...
The proceedings of the second international conference on Asian nuclear prospects was held during October 10-13, 2010. The topics covered were atomic minerals exploration, fuels and fuel fabrication, fast reactor engineering and technology, thermal reactors, fuel reprocessing, materials development, nuclear instrumentation and electronics, reactor and environmental safety, waste management, knowledge management and HRD. Papers relevant to INIS are indexed separately
Being also a variant of the small hydropower scheme, which are usually site specific, much of the studies done on the technology are suited to specific sites and the peculiar hydrology of those localities. This paper, thus, explores this new emerging technology and its prospects, potentials, challenges and frameworks for its ...
Guy, Tatiana Valentine; Wolpert, David H
Prescriptive Bayesian decision making has reached a high level of maturity and is well-supported algorithmically. However, experimental data shows that real decision makers choose such Bayes-optimal decisions surprisingly infrequently, often making decisions that are badly sub-optimal. So prevalent is such imperfect decision-making that it should be accepted as an inherent feature of real decision makers living within interacting societies. To date such societies have been investigated from an economic and gametheoretic perspective, and even to a degree from a physics perspective. However, lit
Smith, A.Y.; Tauchid, M.
A country may decide to begin uranium exploration for any of the following three reasons: 1. To meet the needs of a domestic nuclear power programme; 2. To supply uranium as a commodity to the world market in order to earn foreign exchange; 3. To acquire national information on the country's mineral resource planning. In any of these cases, a country must make some basic decisions regarding the means and modes whereby the uranium exploration will be carried out - by national organizations exclusively; by state organizations in joint venture with outside interests by foreign interests under the control of national regulations. Most uranium exploration is carried out following an exploration strategy in which the programme is divided into a series of steps or stages. Each of the phases is designed to eliminate areas of low potential to contain uranium deposits, while focusing attention on areas of higher potential that will be explored in greater detail at higher cost in the subsequent phase. The methods used in each phase are selected to provide the maximum information at the minimum cost so that at the end of each phase a decision can be made whether to continue to the next phase of stop. Because uranium exploration is a high cost high risk activity, governments must make decisions at the outset whether they wish to carry our the work alone and whether they can support the costs involved, or whether they wish to attract foreign investors to help absorb the costs and therefore the risks. In either case, major policy decisions are required to be made to establish the legal and fiscal environment in which the programm will be carried out. (author). 4 refs, 4 figs
Rothen, Nicolas; Meier, Beat
Prospective memory involves the self-initiated retrieval of an intention upon an appropriate retrieval cue. Cue identification can be considered as an orienting reaction and may thus trigger a psychophysiological response. Here we present two experiments in which skin conductance responses (SCRs) elicited by prospective memory cues were compared to SCRs elicited by aversive stimuli to test whether a single prospective memory cue triggers a similar SCR as an aversive stimulus. In Experiment 2 we also assessed whether cue specificity had a differential influence on prospective memory performance and on SCRs. We found that detecting a single prospective memory cue is as likely to elicit a SCR as an aversive stimulus. Missed prospective memory cues also elicited SCRs. On a behavioural level, specific intentions led to better prospective memory performance. However, on a psychophysiological level specificity had no influence. More generally, the results indicate reliable SCRs for prospective memory cues and point to psychophysiological measures as valuable approach, which offers a new way to study one-off prospective memory tasks. Moreover, the findings are consistent with a theory that posits multiple prospective memory retrieval stages.
Bonnefon, Jean-Francois; Dubois, Didier; Fargier, Hélène
Making a good decision is often a matter of listing and comparing positive and negative arguments, as studies in cognitive psychology have shown. In such cases, the evaluation scale should be considered bipolar, that is, negative and positive values are explicitly distinguished. Generally, positive and negative features are evaluated separately, as done in Cumulative Prospect Theory. However, contrary to the latter framework that presupposes genuine numerical assessments, decisions are often made on the basis of an ordinal ranking of the pros and the cons, and focusing on the most salient features, i.e., the decision process is qualitative. In this paper, we report on a project aiming at characterizing several decision rules, based on possibilistic order of magnitude reasoning, and tailored for the joint handling of positive and negative affects, and at testing their empirical validity. The simplest rules can be viewed as extensions of the maximin and maximax criteria to the bipolar case and, like them, suffer from a lack of discrimination power. More decisive rules that refine them are also proposed. They account for both the principle of Pareto-efficiency and the notion of order of magnitude reasoning. The most decisive one uses a lexicographic ranking of the pros and cons. It comes down to a special case of Cumulative Prospect Theory, and subsumes the “Take the best” heuristic.
Graphical presentations of human actions in incident and accident sequences have been used for many years. However, for the most part, human decision making has been underrepresented in these trees. This paper presents a method of incorporating the human decision process into graphical presentations of incident/accident sequences. This presentation is in the form of logic trees. These trees are called Human Decision Error Trees or HUMDEE for short. The primary benefit of HUMDEE trees is that they graphically illustrate what else the individuals involved in the event could have done to prevent either the initiation or continuation of the event. HUMDEE trees also present the alternate paths available at the operator decision points in the incident/accident sequence. This is different from the Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP) event trees. There are many uses of these trees. They can be used for incident/accident investigations to show what other courses of actions were available and for training operators. The trees also have a consequence component so that not only the decision can be explored, also the consequence of that decision
Cranen, Karlijn; Cranen, Karlijn; Drossaert, Constance H.C.; Brinkman, Evelien S.; Braakman-Jansen, Louise Marie Antoinette; IJzerman, Maarten Joost; Vollenbroek-Hutten, Miriam Marie Rosé
Objectives To explore patients’ perceptions regarding prospective telerehabilitation services and the factors that facilitate or impede patients’ intentions to use these services. Design Using semi-structured interviews, patients reflected on the pros and cons of various scenarios of prospective
Rosoff, Philip M
As medical technology continues to improve, more people will live longer lives with multiple chronic illnesses with increasing cumulative debilitation, including cognitive dysfunction. Combined with the aging of society in most developed countries, an ever-growing number of patients will require surrogate decision-makers. While advance care planning by patients still capable of expressing their preferences about medical interventions and end-of-life care can improve the quality and accuracy of surrogate decisions, this is often not the case, not infrequently leading to demands for ineffective, inappropriate and prolonged interventions. In 1980 LaFollette called for the licensing of prospective parents, basing his argument on the harm they can do to vulnerable people (children). In this paper, I apply his arguments to surrogate decision-makers for cognitively incapacitated patients, rhetorically suggesting that we require potential surrogates to qualify for this position by demonstrating their ability to make reasonable and rational decisions for others. I employ this theoretical approach to argue that the loose criteria by which we authorize surrogates' generally unchallenged power should be reconsidered.
Borovsky, M. Ya; Uspensky, B. V.; Valeeva, S. E.; Borisov, A. S.
There are noted features of shale hydrocarbons occurrence. It is shown the role of geophysical prospecting in the geological prospecting process for non-traditional sources of hydrocarbon. There are considered the possibilities of non-seismic methods for forecasting, prospecting, exploration and preparation of Domanikovian hydrocarbons accumulations for exploration. It is emphasized the need for geophysical studies of tectonic disturbances. Modern aerogeophysical instrumentation and methodological support allows to combine high-precision magneto-prospecting with gravimetric and gamma spectrometry. This combination of geophysical methods contributes to the diagnosis of active and latent faults.
This study is a prospective analysis of the long-term future of nuclear weapons, and particularly the future of French nuclear deterrence after 2015. The selected time period is 2025-2030. The principal objective is to reflect on what the nuclear world might look like during the first part of the 21 st century, beyond the modernization decisions already planned or envisaged, and to draw conclusions for the future of the French deterrent. (author)
Groen-van de Ven, Leontine; Smits, Carolien; de Graaff, Fuusje; Span, Marijke; Eefsting, Jan; Jukema, Jan; Vernooij-Dassen, Myrra
To explore how people with dementia, their informal caregivers and their professionals participate in decision making about daycare and to develop a typology of participation trajectories. A qualitative study with a prospective, multiperspective design, based on 244 semistructured interviews, conducted during three interview rounds over the course of a year. Analysis was by means of content analysis and typology construction. Community settings and nursing homes in the Netherlands. 19 people with dementia, 36 of their informal caregivers and 38 of their professionals (including nurses, daycare employees and case managers). The participants' responses related to three critical points in the decision-making trajectory about daycare: (1) the initial positive or negative expectations of daycare; (2) negotiation about trying out daycare by promoting, resisting or attuning to others; and (3) trying daycare, which resulted in positive or negative reactions from people with dementia and led to a decision. The ways in which care networks proceeded through these three critical points resulted in a typology of participation trajectories, including (1) working together positively toward daycare, (2) bringing conflicting perspectives together toward trying daycare and (3) not reaching commitment to try daycare. Shared decision making with people with dementia is possible and requires and adapted process of decision making. Our results show that initial preferences based on information alone may change when people with dementia experience daycare. It is important to have a try-out period so that people with dementia can experience daycare without having to decide whether to continue it. Whereas shared decision making in general aims at moving from initial preferences to informed preferences, professionals should focus more on moving from initial preferences to experienced preferences for people with dementia. Professionals can play a crucial role in facilitating the
Space Exploration, is one book in the Britannica Illustrated Science Library Series that is correlated to the science curriculum in grades 5-8. The Britannica Illustrated Science Library is a visually compelling set that covers earth science, life science, and physical science in 16 volumes. Created for ages 10 and up, each volume provides an overview on a subject and thoroughly explains it through detailed and powerful graphics-more than 1,000 per volume-that turn complex subjects into information that students can grasp. Each volume contains a glossary with full definitions for vocabulary help and an index.
Verdonschot, E.H.A.M.; Liem, S.L.; Palenstein Helderman, W.H. van
By conducting an oral examination, during radiographic examination and in treatment planning procedures dentists make numerous decisions. A dentist will be required to make his decisions explicit. Decision trees and decision analyses may play an important role. In a decision analysis, the
Holmes-Rovner, Margaret; Nelson, Wendy L; Pignone, Michael; Elwyn, Glyn; Rovner, David R; O'Connor, Annette M; Coulter, Angela; Correa-de-Araujo, Rosaly
This article reports on the International Patient Decision Aid Standards Symposium held in 2006 at the annual meeting of the Society for Medical Decision Making in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The symposium featured a debate regarding the proposition that "decision aids are the best way to improve clinical decision making.'' The formal debate addressed the theoretical problem of the appropriate gold standard for an improved decision, efficacy of decision aids, and prospects for implementation. Audience comments and questions focused on both theory and practice: the often unacknowledged roots of decision aids in expected utility theory and the practical problems of limited patient decision aid implementation in health care. The participants' vote on the proposition was approximately half for and half against.
... page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/patientinstructions/000877.htm Shared decision making To use the sharing features on this page, ... treatment you both support. When to use Shared Decision Making Shared decision making is often used when you ...
Schejbal, C.; Palas, M.
Reflections on prospective mineral raw materials and materials must rest upon the expected demographic evolution, the evaluation of economic development and the development of manufacturing technologies and materials corresponding to them, trends in the consumption of mineral raw materials and possibilities of securing them. The evaluation of the given factors under conditions of the Czech Republic shows that one of the decisive prerequisites to transforming the Czech economy is to assure the fuel and energy security of the state. In addition to emphasis put on traditional and newly developed technologies of utilization of domestic resources of coal and the development of nuclear power, a diversification of supplies of oil and gas is necessary. Moreover, it is necessary to ensure domestic resources of raw materials to some prospective material areas, or to provide these raw materials by means of imports and/or entrepreneurial activity abroad. As far as raw materials for building and industrial rocks are concerned, it is necessary to support the exploitation and home utilization through laws and suitable economic tools at respecting environmental limitations. With non-traditional prospective raw materials, it will be desirable to promote exploration and mining especially in those cases when a precondition exists for the securing of sufficient reserves or when reserves are already known
Jones, Christopher; Gilbert, Paul; Raugei, Marco; Mander, Sarah; Leccisi, Enrica