An Intuitionistic Fuzzy Stochastic Decision-Making Method Based on Case-Based Reasoning and Prospect Theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peng Li

2017-01-01

Full Text Available According to the case-based reasoning method and prospect theory, this paper mainly focuses on finding a way to obtain decision-makers’ preferences and the criterion weights for stochastic multicriteria decision-making problems and classify alternatives. Firstly, we construct a new score function for an intuitionistic fuzzy number (IFN considering the decision-making environment. Then, we aggregate the decision-making information in different natural states according to the prospect theory and test decision-making matrices. A mathematical programming model based on a case-based reasoning method is presented to obtain the criterion weights. Moreover, in the original decision-making problem, we integrate all the intuitionistic fuzzy decision-making matrices into an expectation matrix using the expected utility theory and classify or rank the alternatives by the case-based reasoning method. Finally, two illustrative examples are provided to illustrate the implementation process and applicability of the developed method.

Exploring the Reshoring and Insourcing Decision Making Process

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bals, Lydia; Kirchoff, Jon F.; Foerstl, Kai

2016-01-01

The topics of reshoring and insourcing have recently become more widely discussed among operations management and international business scholars and managers, as some firms are revoking their offshoring and outsourcing decisions. This research focuses on and clarifies the decision making process...... organizational readiness in addition to decision drivers, improve coverage of the implementation stage and explore further contingency factors such as technological advancement as well as to focus on decision makers as the unit of analysis.......The topics of reshoring and insourcing have recently become more widely discussed among operations management and international business scholars and managers, as some firms are revoking their offshoring and outsourcing decisions. This research focuses on and clarifies the decision making processes...

Exploring group decision making in a power-to-take experiment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bosman, R.A.J.; Hennig-Schmidt, H.; van Winden, F.A.A.M.

2006-01-01

Most studies that compare individual and group behavior neglect the in-group decision making process. This paper explores the decision making process within groups in a strategic setting: a two player power-to-take experiment. Discussions preceding group decisions are video taped and analyzed. We

The effect of the emotive decisions in prospect theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Bonavia, Tomas

2014-12-29

The main purpose of this paper was to show that the certainty and reflection effects of prospect theory do not occur when stimuli have an affective value. To this end, 160 participants were asked to reply to a series of problems originally designed by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), but modified according to the contributions of Rottenstreich and Hsee (2001). The sample was divided into four experimental conditions, two in a gain situation and two in a loss situation. In both cases, affect-rich and affect-poor stimuli were applied in sure and probable alternatives. The findings showed that, in agreement with our hypotheses, the affective value of the stimuli altered the outcome predicted by prospect theory, showing response patterns contrary to certainty and reflection effects (p ≤ .01 and p ≤ .05 respectively). Therefore, this research supports the influence of the emotions in the decision-making process, and should be extended to other aspects of prospect theory.

Decision making and response inhibition as predictors of heavy alcohol use: a prospective study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Goudriaan, Anna E.; Grekin, Emily R.; Sher, Kenneth J.

2011-01-01

Very few studies have investigated the "real world" prospective, predictive value of behavioral instruments used in laboratory studies to test decision-making abilities or impulse control. The current study examines the degree to which 2 commonly used decision-making/impulse control measures

Prospective thinking and decision making in primary school age children

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elisabetta Lombardi

2017-06-01

Full Text Available In this study, we seek to widen our understanding of the developmental processes underlying bargaining behaviour in children addressing the concept of prospective thinking. We argue that the emergence of the capacity to think prospectively about future outcomes or behaviours in response to current actions is a required precedent to strategic decision making. To test this idea, we compared 6, 8 and 10 years old children’s performance on three tasks: the ultimatum game assessing fairness/inequality aversion, the marshmallow task, an intertemporal choice task evaluating the ability to delay gratification, and the dictator game assessing altruism. The children’s socio-demographic and cognitive variables were also evaluated. We hypothesized that development of strategic thinking in the ultimatum game is related to an increased ability to delay gratification − given that both tasks require looking at prospective benefits − and, crucially, not to altruism, which benefits from immediate selfless reward. Our results confirmed our hypothesis suggesting that increased strategic planning with age would also stem from the development of competencies like prospective thinking. Keywords: Psychology, Education

Prospective thinking and decision making in primary school age children.

Science.gov (United States)

Lombardi, Elisabetta; Di Dio, Cinzia; Castelli, Ilaria; Massaro, Davide; Marchetti, Antonella

2017-06-01

In this study, we seek to widen our understanding of the developmental processes underlying bargaining behaviour in children addressing the concept of prospective thinking. We argue that the emergence of the capacity to think prospectively about future outcomes or behaviours in response to current actions is a required precedent to strategic decision making. To test this idea, we compared 6, 8 and 10 years old children's performance on three tasks: the ultimatum game assessing fairness/inequality aversion, the marshmallow task, an intertemporal choice task evaluating the ability to delay gratification, and the dictator game assessing altruism. The children's socio-demographic and cognitive variables were also evaluated. We hypothesized that development of strategic thinking in the ultimatum game is related to an increased ability to delay gratification - given that both tasks require looking at prospective benefits - and, crucially, not to altruism, which benefits from immediate selfless reward. Our results confirmed our hypothesis suggesting that increased strategic planning with age would also stem from the development of competencies like prospective thinking.

Risk attitude in small timesaving decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Munichor, Nira; Erev, Ido; Lotem, Arnon

2006-09-01

Four experiments are presented that explore situations in which a decision maker has to rely on personal experience in an attempt to minimize delays. Experiment 1 shows that risk-attitude in these timesaving decisions is similar to risk-attitude in money-related decisions from experience: A risky prospect is more attractive than a safer prospect with the same expected value only when it leads to a better outcome most of the time. Experiment 2 highlights a boundary condition: It suggests that a difficulty in ranking the relevant delays moves behavior toward random choice. Experiments 3 and 4 show that when actions must be taken during the delay (thereby helping compare delays), this increases the similarity of timesaving decisions to money-related decisions. In these settings the results reflect an increase in risk aversion with experience. The relationship of the results to the study of non-human time-related decisions, human money-related decisions and human time perception is discussed.

Prospect theory or construal level theory? Diminishing sensitivity vs. psychological distance in risky decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Trautmann, Stefan T; van de Kuilen, Gijs

2012-01-01

Attitudes toward risks are central to organizational decisions. These attitudes are commonly modeled by prospect theory. Construal level theory has been proposed as an alternative theory of risky choice, accounting for psychological distance deriving from temporal, spatial and social aspects of risk that are typical of agency situations. Unnoticed in the literature, the two theories make contradicting predictions. The current study investigates which theory provides a better description of risky decisions in the presence of temporal, spatial, and social factors. We find that the psychophysical effects modeled by prospect theory dominate the psychological distance effects of construal level theory. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A qualitative exploration of HIV-positive pregnant women's decision ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

HIV-positive women's abortion decisions were explored by: (i) investigating influencing factors; (ii) determining knowledge of abortion policy and public health services; and (iii) exploring abortion experiences. In-depth interviews were held with 24 HIVpositive women (15 had an abortion; 9 did not), recruited at public health ...

Exploring Prospective Teachers’ Reflections in the Context of Conducting Clinical Interviews

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rukiye Didem Taylan

2018-04-01

Full Text Available This study investigated prospective mathematics teachers’ reflections on the experience of designing and conducting one-to-one clinical interviews with middle school students in the context of an elective course on use of video in teacher learning. Prospective teachers were asked to write about weaknesses and strengths in student understanding as well as their own performance as an interviewer in terms of asking questions and responding to student thinking in their reflections on conducting clinical interviews. Furthermore, prospective teachers were also asked to reflect on what they would do differently in order to conduct better clinical interviews. Nature of prospective teachers’ reflections were analyzed by using existing frameworks (through constructs of reflection-on-action and reflection-for-action and by using thematic analysis. Results of data analyses revealed that prospective teachers had more difficulties in providing meaningful reflection-for-action which was related to alternative decisions and planning for future similar interviews. Thematic analysis results revealed prospective teachers’ learning were grouped under three categories: conducting clinical interviews as part of being a teacher, complexity of conducting clinical interviews, and personal theories about middle school students. There are implications for both teacher learning and research.

Reducing Subjectivity in Geothermal Exploration Decision Making (Presentation); NREL(National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Akar, S.; Young, K.

2015-01-01

Geothermal exploration projects have a significant amount of risk associated with uncertainties encountered in the discovery of the geothermal resource. Two of the largest challenges for increased geothermal deployment are 1) understanding when and how to proceed in an exploration program, and 2) when to walk away from a site. Current methodologies for exploration decision-making are formulatedby subjective expert opinion which can be incorrectly biased by expertise (e.g. geochemistry, geophysics), geographic location of focus, and the assumed conceptual model. The aim of this project is to develop a methodology for more objective geothermal exploration decision making at a given location, including go/no-go decision points to help developers and investors decide when to give up on alocation. In this scope, two different approaches are investigated: 1) value of information analysis (VOIA) which is used for evaluating and quantifying the value of a data before they are purchased, and 2) enthalpy-based exploration targeting based on reservoir size, temperature gradient estimates, and internal rate of return (IRR). The first approach, VOIA, aims to identify the value of aparticular data when making decisions with an uncertain outcome. This approach targets the pre-drilling phase of exploration. These estimated VOIs are highly affected by the size of the project and still have a high degree of subjectivity in assignment of probabilities. The second approach, exploration targeting, is focused on decision making during the drilling phase. It starts with a basicgeothermal project definition that includes target and minimum required production capacity and initial budgeting for exploration phases. Then, it uses average temperature gradient, reservoir temperature estimates, and production capacity to define targets and go/no-go limits. The decision analysis in this approach is based on achieving a minimum IRR at each phase of the project. This secondapproach was determined

Exploring audit assistants decision to leave the audit profession

OpenAIRE

Gertsson, Nellie; Sylvander, Johanna; Broberg, Pernilla; Friberg, Josefine

2017-01-01

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to explore why audit assistants leave the audit profession. By including both the perceptions held by audit assistants that left the audit profession and the perceptions of audit assistants still working in the audit profession, this study aims to explore how determinants of job satisfaction are associated with decisions to leave the audit profession. Design/methodology/approach - To explore the association between determinants of job satisfaction and de...

Data Prospecting Framework - a new approach to explore "big data" in Earth Science

Science.gov (United States)

Ramachandran, R.; Rushing, J.; Lin, A.; Kuo, K.

2012-12-01

Due to advances in sensors, computation and storage, cost and effort required to produce large datasets have been significantly reduced. As a result, we are seeing a proliferation of large-scale data sets being assembled in almost every science field, especially in geosciences. Opportunities to exploit the "big data" are enormous as new hypotheses can be generated by combining and analyzing large amounts of data. However, such a data-driven approach to science discovery assumes that scientists can find and isolate relevant subsets from vast amounts of available data. Current Earth Science data systems only provide data discovery through simple metadata and keyword-based searches and are not designed to support data exploration capabilities based on the actual content. Consequently, scientists often find themselves downloading large volumes of data, struggling with large amounts of storage and learning new analysis technologies that will help them separate the wheat from the chaff. New mechanisms of data exploration are needed to help scientists discover the relevant subsets We present data prospecting, a new content-based data analysis paradigm to support data-intensive science. Data prospecting allows the researchers to explore big data in determining and isolating data subsets for further analysis. This is akin to geo-prospecting in which mineral sites of interest are determined over the landscape through screening methods. The resulting "data prospects" only provide an interaction with and feel for the data through first-look analytics; the researchers would still have to download the relevant datasets and analyze them deeply using their favorite analytical tools to determine if the datasets will yield new hypotheses. Data prospecting combines two traditional categories of data analysis, data exploration and data mining within the discovery step. Data exploration utilizes manual/interactive methods for data analysis such as standard statistical analysis and

The predictive validity of prospect theory versus expected utility in health utility measurement.

Science.gov (United States)

Abellan-Perpiñan, Jose Maria; Bleichrodt, Han; Pinto-Prades, Jose Luis

2009-12-01

Most health care evaluations today still assume expected utility even though the descriptive deficiencies of expected utility are well known. Prospect theory is the dominant descriptive alternative for expected utility. This paper tests whether prospect theory leads to better health evaluations than expected utility. The approach is purely descriptive: we explore how simple measurements together with prospect theory and expected utility predict choices and rankings between more complex stimuli. For decisions involving risk prospect theory is significantly more consistent with rankings and choices than expected utility. This conclusion no longer holds when we use prospect theory utilities and expected utilities to predict intertemporal decisions. The latter finding cautions against the common assumption in health economics that health state utilities are transferable across decision contexts. Our results suggest that the standard gamble and algorithms based on, should not be used to value health.

Prospective Analysis of Decision Making During Joint Cardiology Cardiothoracic Conference in Treatment of 107 Consecutive Children with Congenital Heart Disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Duignan, Sophie; Ryan, Aedin; O'Keeffe, Dara; Kenny, Damien; McMahon, Colin J

2018-05-12

The complexity and potential biases involved in decision making have long been recognised and examined in both the aviation and business industries. More recently, the medical community have started to explore this concept and its particular importance in our field. Paediatric cardiology is a rapidly expanding field and for many of the conditions we treat, there is limited evidence available to support our decision-making. Variability exists within decision-making in paediatric cardiology and this may influence outcomes. There are no validated tools available to support and examine consistent decision-making for various treatment strategies in children with congenital heart disease in a multidisciplinary cardiology and cardiothoracic institution. Our primary objective was to analyse the complexity of decision-making for children with cardiac conditions in the context of our joint cardiology and cardiothoracic conference (JCC). Two paediatric cardiologists acted as investigators by observing the weekly joint cardiology-cardiothoracic surgery conference and prospectively evaluating the degree of complexity of decision-making in the management of 107 sequential children with congenital heart disease discussed. Additionally, the group consensus on the same patients was prospectively assessed to compare this to the independent observers. Of 107 consecutive children discussed at our JCC conference 32 (27%) went on to receive surgical intervention, 20 (17%) underwent catheterisation and 65 (56%) received medical treatment. There were 53 (50%) cases rated as simple by one senior observer, while 54 (50%) were rated as complex to some degree. There was high inter-observer agreement with a Krippendorff's alpha of ≥ 0.8 between 2 observers and between 2 observers and the group consensus as a whole for grading of the complexity of decision-making. Different decisions were occasionally made on patients with the same data set. Discussions revisiting the same patient, in

Clinical Performance and Management Outcomes with the DecisionDx-UM Gene Expression Profile Test in a Prospective Multicenter Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kristen Meldi Plasseraud

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Uveal melanoma management is challenging due to its metastatic propensity. DecisionDx-UM is a prospectively validated molecular test that interrogates primary tumor biology to provide objective information about metastatic potential that can be used in determining appropriate patient care. To evaluate the continued clinical validity and utility of DecisionDx-UM, beginning March 2010, 70 patients were enrolled in a prospective, multicenter, IRB-approved study to document patient management differences and clinical outcomes associated with low-risk Class 1 and high-risk Class 2 results indicated by DecisionDx-UM testing. Thirty-seven patients in the prospective study were Class 1 and 33 were Class 2. Class 1 patients had 100% 3-year metastasis-free survival compared to 63% for Class 2 (log rank test p=0.003 with 27.3 median follow-up months in this interim analysis. Class 2 patients received significantly higher-intensity monitoring and more oncology/clinical trial referrals compared to Class 1 patients (Fisher’s exact test p=2.1×10-13 and p=0.04, resp.. The results of this study provide additional, prospective evidence in an independent cohort of patients that Class 1 and Class 2 patients are managed according to the differential metastatic risk indicated by DecisionDx-UM. The trial is registered with Clinical Application of DecisionDx-UM Gene Expression Assay Results (NCT02376920.

International cooperation in planetary exploration - Past success and future prospects

Science.gov (United States)

Rosendhal, Jeffrey D.

1987-01-01

A review is given of the ways in which the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has participated in international efforts to explore the solar system. Past examples of successful international cooperative programs are described. Prospects for future cooperative efforts are discussed with emphasis placed on current events, issues, and trends which are likely to affect possibilities for cooperation over the next 5 to 10 years. Key factors which will play a major role in shaping future prospects for cooperation include the move towards balancing the budget in the United States and the impact of the Challenger accident on the NASA program.

Exploring Teachers' Curriculum Decision Making: Insights from History Education

Science.gov (United States)

Harris, Richard; Reynolds, Rosemary

2018-01-01

This paper explores teachers' decision making by examining the topics that 11 history teachers from 10 schools in England chose to teach and how they approached teaching these topics. Data were gathered from curriculum documents and semi-structured interviews in which teachers' topic choices and approaches to history were explored. Most teachers…

Breakthrough and prospect of shale gas exploration and development in China

OpenAIRE

Dazhong Dong; Yuman Wang; Xinjing Li; Caineng Zou; Quanzhong Guan; Chenchen Zhang; Jinliang Huang; Shufang Wang; Hongyan Wang; Honglin Liu; Wenhua Bai; Feng Liang; Wen Lin; Qun Zhao; Dexun Liu

2016-01-01

In the past five years, shale gas exploration and development has grown in a leaping-forward way in China. Following USA and Canada, China is now the third country where industrial shale gas production is realized, with the cumulative production exceeding 60 × 108 m3 until the end of 2015. In this paper, the main achievements of shale gas exploration and development in China in recent years were reviewed and the future development prospect was analyzed. It is pointed out that shale gas explor...

Application of comprehensive geophysical prospecting method in groundwater exploration

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Fan; Gao, Pengju; Li, Dong; Ma, Hanwen; Cheng, Guoliang

2018-01-01

In order to solve the problem of shortage of water resources in northern Shaanxi, we selected rectangular large loop source transient electromagnetic method with high water affinity, and radioactive α measurement method which can delineate the water storage structure, comprehensive geophysical prospecting methods to look for groundwater. Algorithm has established a forward model, and compared all-time apparent resistivity in late-time apparent resistivity is better than late. We can find out the exact location of the groundwater and thus improving wells rate by comparatively using these two kinds of geophysical prospecting method. Hydrogeology drilling confirmed water inflow of a single well can be up to 40 m 3/h, it can fully cover native Domestic and Agricultural water, and provide an important basis for groundwater exploration.

Snapshots of Student Thinking: An Exploration of Video Cases for Extending Prospective Teachers' Knowledge

Science.gov (United States)

Pitts Bannister, Vanessa R.; Mariano, Gina J.

2013-01-01

The purpose of this article is to explore the relationships between prospective teachers' content knowledge, student understanding, and pedagogy using video cases. The emphasis was on the extent to which the participants utilized constructs of Technology Pedagogy And Content Knowledge. Ten prospective teachers viewed video cases of students…

Prospecting exploration and development of the uranium deposits Key Lake, Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kirchner, G.; Tan, B.H.

1977-01-01

This lecture gives a survey of the methods employed by the Uranerzbergbau-GmbH and Co. KG and the experience gained in connection with prospecting and exploration activities at the uranium deposits in Saskatchewan, illustrated by the case history Key Lake. (orig.) [de

Prospectivity Modeling of Karstic Groundwater Using a Sequential Exploration Approach in Tepal Area, Iran

Science.gov (United States)

Sharifi, Fereydoun; Arab-Amiri, Ali Reza; Kamkar-Rouhani, Abolghasem; Yousefi, Mahyar; Davoodabadi-Farahani, Meysam

2017-09-01

The purpose of this study is water prospectivity modeling (WPM) for recognizing karstic water-bearing zones by using analyses of geo-exploration data in Kal-Qorno valley, located in Tepal area, north of Iran. For this, a sequential exploration method applied on geo-evidential data to delineate target areas for further exploration. In this regard, two major exploration phases including regional and local scales were performed. In the first phase, indicator geological features, structures and lithological units, were used to model groundwater prospectivity as a regional scale. In this phase, for karstic WPM, fuzzy lithological and structural evidence layers were generated and combined using fuzzy operators. After generating target areas using WPM, in the second phase geophysical surveys including gravimetry and geoelectrical resistivity were carried out on the recognized high potential zones as a local scale exploration. Finally the results of geophysical analyses in the second phase were used to select suitable drilling locations to access and extract karstic groundwater in the study area.

Main geologic characteristics of paleochannel-type sandstone-hosted uranium deposits and relevant prospecting and exploration policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen Zuyi

1999-01-01

The author summarizes main prospecting and exploration-related geologic characteristics of paleochannel-type sandstone-hosted uranium deposits such as the structural control over the spatial emplacement of the deposit, the near-source occurrence, the phreatic oxidation origin, the occurrence of the uranium mineralization mostly in one horizon etc. On the basis of analyzing the above characteristics the prospecting and exploration policy of such uranium deposits is proposed

Prospect theory or construal level theory? Diminishing sensitivity vs. psychological distance in risky decisions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Trautmann, S.T.; van de Kuilen, G.

2012-01-01

Attitudes toward risks are central to organizational decisions. These attitudes are commonly modeled by prospect theory. Construal level theory has been proposed as an alternative theory of risky choice, accounting for psychological distance deriving from temporal, spatial and social aspects of risk

mba.com Prospective Students Survey. 2015 Survey Report

Science.gov (United States)

Schoenfeld, Gregg

2015-01-01

This 2015 "mba.com Prospective Students Survey Report" explores the motivations, career goals, preferred program types, financial choices, decision time lines, and intended study destinations of individuals interested in pursuing a graduate management education. Findings analyzed in the report represent responses from nearly 12,000…

WeightLifter: Visual Weight Space Exploration for Multi-Criteria Decision Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Pajer, Stephan; Streit, Marc; Torsney-Weir, Thomas; Spechtenhauser, Florian; Muller, Torsten; Piringer, Harald

2017-01-01

A common strategy in Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) is to rank alternative solutions by weighted summary scores. Weights, however, are often abstract to the decision maker and can only be set by vague intuition. While previous work supports a point-wise exploration of weight spaces, we argue that MCDM can benefit from a regional and global visual analysis of weight spaces. Our main contribution is WeightLifter, a novel interactive visualization technique for weight-based MCDM that facilitates the exploration of weight spaces with up to ten criteria. Our technique enables users to better understand the sensitivity of a decision to changes of weights, to efficiently localize weight regions where a given solution ranks high, and to filter out solutions which do not rank high enough for any plausible combination of weights. We provide a comprehensive requirement analysis for weight-based MCDM and describe an interactive workflow that meets these requirements. For evaluation, we describe a usage scenario of WeightLifter in automotive engineering and report qualitative feedback from users of a deployed version as well as preliminary feedback from decision makers in multiple domains. This feedback confirms that WeightLifter increases both the efficiency of weight-based MCDM and the awareness of uncertainty in the ultimate decisions.

Exploration of Uranium in Simpang Kanan, East Aceh, Preliminary Prospecting Stages

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Djalil, A; Sutriyono, A; Sajiyo

1998-01-01

Exploration of uranium in simpang kanan, east aceh, preliminary prospecting stages. The research has been carried out to obtain the knowledge of geology, radiometry and geochemistry in relation with U prospect development. Based on the similarity of lithology in takengon sector which indicates the existence of uranium mineralization. Research method consist of geological observation, radiometric measurements of outcrops, boulders and stream sediment and heavy mineral samples. Laboratory analysis consist of petrography, autoradiography and uranium content analysis of stream sediment and rock samples. The lithology consist of slate, quartzite, marble, granite, dacite, limestone, carbonaceous sandstone, black claystone, sandstone, siltstone, carbonaceous siltstone. This area found, has been folded with the folding axis direction of NW-SE. Fault structures are generally formed as strike slip fault and several location as normal fault and heavy minerals anomalous was interpreted from granite and sandstone- siltstone. Occurrences of the geochemical anomaly, lithology and geological structures, there has been shown that few location is being the prospect area covered about 70 km of 1800km prospecting area, so it is suggested that in those related prospect area should be performed further observation

Decision making under time pressure, modeled in a prospect theory framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Young, Diana L; Goodie, Adam S; Hall, Daniel B; Wu, Eric

2012-07-01

The current research examines the effects of time pressure on decision behavior based on a prospect theory framework. In Experiments 1 and 2, participants estimated certainty equivalents for binary gains-only bets in the presence or absence of time pressure. In Experiment 3, participants assessed comparable bets that were framed as losses. Data were modeled to establish psychological mechanisms underlying decision behavior. In Experiments 1 and 2, time pressure led to increased risk attractiveness, but no significant differences emerged in either probability discriminability or outcome utility. In Experiment 3, time pressure reduced probability discriminability, which was coupled with severe risk-seeking behavior for both conditions in the domain of losses. No significant effects of control over outcomes were observed. Results provide qualified support for theories that suggest increased risk-seeking for gains under time pressure.

An application of prospect theory to a SHM-based decision problem

Science.gov (United States)

Bolognani, Denise; Verzobio, Andrea; Tonelli, Daniel; Cappello, Carlo; Glisic, Branko; Zonta, Daniele

2017-04-01

Decision making investigates choices that have uncertain consequences and that cannot be completely predicted. Rational behavior may be described by the so-called expected utility theory (EUT), whose aim is to help choosing among several solutions to maximize the expectation of the consequences. However, Kahneman and Tversky developed an alternative model, called prospect theory (PT), showing that the basic axioms of EUT are violated in several instances. In respect of EUT, PT takes into account irrational behaviors and heuristic biases. It suggests an alternative approach, in which probabilities are replaced by decision weights, which are strictly related to the decision maker's preferences and may change for different individuals. In particular, people underestimate the utility of uncertain scenarios compared to outcomes obtained with certainty, and show inconsistent preferences when the same choice is presented in different forms. The goal of this paper is precisely to analyze a real case study involving a decision problem regarding the Streicker Bridge, a pedestrian bridge on Princeton University campus. By modelling the manager of the bridge with the EUT first, and with PT later, we want to verify the differences between the two approaches and to investigate how the two models are sensitive to unpacking probabilities, which represent a common cognitive bias in irrational behaviors.

Multi-data integration of exploration criteria and selection of prospecting targets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dechang, L.; Jingke, Z.; Maorong, S.; Guojuan, W.

1991-01-01

In this paper based on the analysis of the exploration criteria for Shengyuan Basin-a uranium ore field, the multi-data integration and information extraction of exploration criteria are carried out on computer and image processing system so that the areas with best combinations of exploration criteria are directly displayed on the screen. Six prospecting targets are selected through the field examination. Shengyuan basin in Jiangxi province is a uranium-producing, Jurassic Cretaceous volcanic-sedimentary basin with an area of about 400 sq km. Its basement consists of Sinian-Cambrian rocks with Caledonian granites intruded. Several uranium deposits, occurrences and anomalies were discovered over the basin region which, therefore, becomes a very important uranium ore field in China

Decision making under time pressure, modeled in a prospect theory framework

Science.gov (United States)

Young, Diana L.; Goodie, Adam S.; Hall, Daniel B.; Wu, Eric

2012-01-01

The current research examines the effects of time pressure on decision behavior based on a prospect theory framework. In Experiments 1 and 2, participants estimated certainty equivalents for binary gains-only bets in the presence or absence of time pressure. In Experiment 3, participants assessed comparable bets that were framed as losses. Data were modeled to establish psychological mechanisms underlying decision behavior. In Experiments 1 and 2, time pressure led to increased risk attractiveness, but no significant differences emerged in either probability discriminability or outcome utility. In Experiment 3, time pressure reduced probability discriminability, which was coupled with severe risk-seeking behavior for both conditions in the domain of losses. No significant effects of control over outcomes were observed. Results provide qualified support for theories that suggest increased risk-seeking for gains under time pressure. PMID:22711977

Exploring the Functioning of Decision Space: A Review of the Available Health Systems Literature

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tamlyn Eslie Roman

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Background The concept of decision space holds appeal as an approach to disaggregating the elements that may influence decision-making in decentralized systems. This narrative review aims to explore the functioning of decision space and the factors that influence decision space. Methods A narrative review of the literature was conducted with searches of online databases and academic journals including PubMed Central, Emerald, Wiley, Science Direct, JSTOR, and Sage. The articles were included in the review based on the criteria that they provided insight into the functioning of decision space either through the explicit application of or reference to decision space, or implicitly through discussion of decision-making related to organizational capacity or accountability mechanisms. Results The articles included in the review encompass literature related to decentralisation, management and decision space. The majority of the studies utilise qualitative methodologies to assess accountability mechanisms, organisational capacities such as finance, human resources and management, and the extent of decision space. Of the 138 articles retrieved, 76 articles were included in the final review. Conclusion The literature supports Bossert’s conceptualization of decision space as being related to organizational capacities and accountability mechanisms. These functions influence the decision space available within decentralized systems. The exact relationship between decision space and financial and human resource capacities needs to be explored in greater detail to determine the potential influence on system functioning.

Pattern recognition applied to uranium prospecting

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Briggs, P L; Press, F [Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge (USA). Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences

1977-07-14

It is stated that pattern recognition techniques provide one way of combining quantitative and descriptive geological data for mineral prospecting. A quantified decision process using computer-selected patterns of geological data has the potential for selecting areas with undiscovered deposits of uranium or other minerals. When a natural resource is mined more rapidly than it is discovered, its continued production becomes increasingly difficult, and it has been noted that, although a considerable uranium reserve may remain in the U.S.A., the discovery rate for uranium is decreasing exponentially with cumulative exploration footage drilled. Pattern recognition methods of organising geological information for prospecting may provide new predictive power, as well as insight into the occurrence of uranium ore deposits. Often the task of prospecting consists of three stages of information processing: (1) collection of data on known ore deposits; (2) noting any regularities common to the known examples of an ore; (3) selection of new exploration targets based on the results of the second stage. A logical pattern recognition algorithm is here described that implements this geological procedure to demonstrate the possibility of building a quantified uranium prospecting guide from diverse geologic data.

Critical decisions for older people with advanced dementia: a prospective study in long-term institutions and district home care

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Toscani, F.; Steen, J.T. van der; Finetti, S.; Giunco, F.; Pettenati, F.; Villani, D.; Monti, M.; Gentile, S.; Charrier, L.; Giulio, P. Di

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To describe and compare the decisions critical for survival or quality of life [critical decisions (CDs)] made for patients with advanced dementia in nursing homes (NHs) and home care (HC) services. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study with a follow-up of 6 months. SETTING: Lombardy Region

Discussion on the exploration & development prospect of shale gas in the Sichuan Basin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dazhong Dong

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The Sichuan Basin, a hotspot and one of the most successful areas for shale gas exploration and development, can largely reflect and have a big say in the future prospect of shale gas in China. Through an overall review on the progress in shale gas exploration and development in the Sichuan Basin, we obtained the following findings: (1 the Sichuan Basin has experienced the marine and terrestrial depositional evolution, resulting in the deposition of three types of organic-matter-rich shales (i.e. marine, transitional, and terrestrial, and the occurrence of six sets of favorable shale gas enrichment strata (i.e. the Sinian Doushantuo Fm, the Cambrian Qiongzhusi Fm, the Ordovician Wufeng–Silurian Longmaxi Fm, the Permian Longtan Fm, the Triassic Xujiahe Fm, and the Jurassic Zhiliujing Fm; (2 the five key elements for shale gas accumulation in the Wufeng-Longmaxi Fm are deep-water shelf facies, greater thickness of organic-rich shales, moderate thermal evolution, abundant structural fractures, reservoir overpressure; and (3 the exploration and development of shale gas in this basin still confronts two major challenges, namely, uncertain sweet spots and potential prospect of shale gas, and the immature technologies in the development of shale gas resources at a depth of more than 3500 m. In conclusion, shale gas has been discovered in the Jurassic, Triassic and Cambrian, and preliminary industrial-scale gas has been produced in the Ordovician-Silurian Fm in the Sichuan Basin, indicating a promising prospect there; commercial shale gas can be produced there with an estimated annual gas output of 30–60 billion m3; and shale gas exploration and production experiences in this basin will provide valuable theoretical and technical support for commercial shale gas development in China.

Parents' preferences strongly influence their decisions to withhold prescribed opioids when faced with analgesic trade-off dilemmas for children: a prospective observational study.

Science.gov (United States)

Voepel-Lewis, Terri; Zikmund-Fisher, Brian J; Smith, Ellen Lavoie; Zyzanski, Sarah; Tait, Alan R

2015-08-01

Despite parents' stated desire to treat pain in their children, recent studies have critiqued their underuse of prescribed analgesics to treat pain in their children after painful procedures. Parents' analgesic preferences, including their perceived importance of providing pain relief or avoiding adverse drug effects may have important implications for their analgesic decisions, yet no studies have evaluated the influence of preferences on decisions to withhold prescribed opioids for children. We prospectively explored how parents' preferences influenced decisions to withhold prescribed opioids when faced with hypothetical dilemmas and after hospital discharge. Prospective Observational Study Design: Phase 1 included hypothetical analgesic decisions and Phase 2, real analgesic decisions after hospital discharge. Large tertiary care pediatric hospital in the Midwest of the United States. Five-hundred seven parents whose children underwent a painful surgical procedure requiring an opioid prescription were included. At baseline, parents completed surveys assessing their pain relief preference (i.e., their rated importance of pain relief relative to adverse drug event avoidance), preferred treatment thresholds (i.e., pain level at which they would give an opioid), adverse drug event understanding, and hypothetical trade-off decisions (i.e., scenarios presenting variable pain and adverse drug event symptoms in a child). After discharge, parents recorded all analgesics they gave their child as well as pain scores at the time of administration. Higher preference to provide pain relief (over avoid analgesic risk) lessened the likelihood that parents would withhold the prescribed opioid when adverse drug event symptoms were present together with high pain scores in the hypothetical scenarios. Additionally, higher preferred treatment thresholds increased the likelihood of parents withholding opioids during their hypothetical decision-making as well as at home. The strong

Constraints and prospects of uranium exploration in Himalaya

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Singh, Rajendra

1994-01-01

Exploration for uranium in the Himalaya over the last thirty years has brought to light five distinct types of mineralisation, namely, vein-type, hydrothermal shear controlled-type, disseminated-type, syngenetic-type, and sandstone-type. The first three are associated with lower to middle proterozoic metasedimentary rocks, metabasic rocks, and granitoids of the lesser Himalaya in close proximity to the main central thrust (MCT). The carbonaceous slates of Haimanta group (late proterozoic to eocambrian) and the Mussoorie phosphorites (eocambrian) represent the syngenetic types. The sandstone-type is associated with the late tertiary Siwaliks of the northwestern Himalaya. The constraints in geology and uranium exploration in the Himalaya have been briefly discussed and principal uranium occurrences in relation to their tectonic environment and genesis listed. The need for geochemical characterization of the Himalayan granitoids and the metabasics related to known uranium mineralisation and new areas have been suggested. Integrated application of radiometric, geochemical and geophysical methods of prospecting and remote sensing techniques in regional geological correlation, identification of subtle rock alterations associated with mineralized zones, geologic structures, and deep crustal lineaments have been advocated. A case for the exploration of the areas of lesser Himalaya outside the MCT has been made out so as to locate hitherto unknown types of uranium deposits including, strata bound, metamorphic, and intra granitic types, possibly with better depth persistence. (author). 57 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs

Exploring the Functioning of Decision Space: A Review of the Available Health Systems Literature.

Science.gov (United States)

Roman, Tamlyn Eslie; Cleary, Susan; McIntyre, Diane

2017-02-27

The concept of decision space holds appeal as an approach to disaggregating the elements that may influence decision-making in decentralized systems. This narrative review aims to explore the functioning of decision space and the factors that influence decision space. A narrative review of the literature was conducted with searches of online databases and academic journals including PubMed Central, Emerald, Wiley, Science Direct, JSTOR, and Sage. The articles were included in the review based on the criteria that they provided insight into the functioning of decision space either through the explicit application of or reference to decision space, or implicitly through discussion of decision-making related to organizational capacity or accountability mechanisms. The articles included in the review encompass literature related to decentralisation, management and decision space. The majority of the studies utilise qualitative methodologies to assess accountability mechanisms, organisational capacities such as finance, human resources and management, and the extent of decision space. Of the 138 articles retrieved, 76 articles were included in the final review. The literature supports Bossert's conceptualization of decision space as being related to organizational capacities and accountability mechanisms. These functions influence the decision space available within decentralized systems. The exact relationship between decision space and financial and human resource capacities needs to be explored in greater detail to determine the potential influence on system functioning. © 2017 The Author(s); Published by Kerman University of Medical Sciences. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

A Qualitative Exploration of Clinician Views and Experiences of Treatment Decision-Making in Bipolar II Disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Fisher, Alana; Manicavasagar, Vijaya; Sharpe, Louise; Laidsaar-Powell, Rebekah; Juraskova, Ilona

2017-11-01

This study qualitatively explored clinicians' views and experiences of treatment decision-making in BPII. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 20 practising clinicians (n = 10 clinical psychologists, n = 6 GPs, n = 4 psychiatrists) with experience in treating adult outpatients with BPII. Interviews were audiotaped, transcribed verbatim and thematically analysed using framework methods. Professional experience, and preferences for patient involvement in decision-making were also assessed. Qualitative analyses yielded four inter-related themes: (1) (non-)acceptance of diagnosis and treatment; (2) types of decisions; (3) treatment uncertainty and balancing act; and (4) decision-making in consultations. Clinician preferences for treatment, professional experience, and self-reported preferences for patient/family involvement seemed to influence decision-making. This study is the first to explore clinician views and experiences of treatment decision-making in BPII. Findings demonstrate how clinician-related factors may shape treatment decision-making, and suggest potential problems such as patient perceptions of lower-than-preferred involvement.

Prospect Theory and the Risks Involved in Decision-Making: Content Analysis in ProQuest Articles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sady Darcy da Silva-Junior

2016-04-01

Full Text Available In this study, the objective is to perform content analysis on articles of a reliable database, dealing with the prospect theory and the risks involved in the decision making process, evaluating some criteria for the theoretical and methodological approaches that allow a joint analysis and comparative. Therefore, a search in ProQuest database was performed which resulted in 15 articles that were submitted to content analysis process, based on the evaluation of nine factors identified by researchers. Among the results highlight the critical attitude to the prospect theory, in contrast to the assertion of his representative capacity of real situations and application in various situations.

Characteristics of the postcounseling reproductive decision-making process: an explorative study.

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Frets, P G; Verhage, F; Niermeijer, M F

1991-09-01

An in-depth, recorded interview of 30 couples 2-3 years after genetic counseling explored the characteristics of the postcounseling decision-making process, including the role of guilt feelings towards the proband. The study concerned couples with an affected child, sib, or spouse. Results were evaluated by 2 to 4 judges. In contrast to other studies, a generally unstructured decision-making process was found whereby guilt feelings played a significant role in more than half the couples. Guilt feelings were more predominant in couples with an affected sib than in those with an affected spouse. Lack of structure did not seem to complicate the decision-making process. Therefore, authors do not advocate promotion of structuring the decision-making process. Genetic counselors might focus on understanding counselees' feelings concerning the reproductive decision. Acceptance of apparently irrational considerations is particularly important, because these feelings indicate the influence of unconscious motives. Another important aspect of supporting counselees is to understand the role played by guilt feelings toward parents or an affected sib.

Intuitionistic Trapezoidal Fuzzy Group Decision-Making Based on Prospect Choquet Integral Operator and Grey Projection Pursuit Dynamic Cluster

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Jiahang Yuan

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In consideration of the interaction among attributes and the influence of decision makers’ risk attitude, this paper proposes an intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy aggregation operator based on Choquet integral and prospect theory. With respect to a multiattribute group decision-making problem, the prospect value functions of intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy numbers are aggregated by the proposed operator; then a grey relation-projection pursuit dynamic cluster method is developed to obtain the ranking of alternatives; the firefly algorithm is used to optimize the objective function of projection for obtaining the best projection direction of grey correlation projection values, and the grey correlation projection values are evaluated, which are applied to classify, rank, and prefer the alternatives. Finally, an illustrative example is taken in the present study to make the proposed method comprehensible.

A prospective cohort study of treatment decision-making for prostate cancer following participation in a multidisciplinary clinic.

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Hurwitz, Lauren M; Cullen, Jennifer; Elsamanoudi, Sally; Kim, Daniel J; Hudak, Jane; Colston, Maryellen; Travis, Judith; Kuo, Huai-Ching; Porter, Christopher R; Rosner, Inger L

2016-05-01

Patients diagnosed with prostate cancer (PCa) are presented with several treatment options of similar efficacy but varying side effects. Understanding how and why patients make their treatment decisions, as well as the effect of treatment choice on long-term outcomes, is critical to ensuring effective, patient-centered care. This study examined treatment decision-making in a racially diverse, equal-access, contemporary cohort of patients with PCa counseled on treatment options at a multidisciplinary clinic. A prospective cohort study was initiated at the Walter Reed National Military Medical Center (formerly Walter Reed Army Medical Center) in 2006. Newly diagnosed patients with PCa were enrolled before attending a multidisciplinary clinic. Patients completed surveys preclinic and postclinic to assess treatment preferences, reasons for treatment choice, and decisional regret. As of January 2014, 925 patients with PCa enrolled in this study. Surgery (54%), external radiation (20%), and active surveillance (12%) were the most common primary treatments for patients with low- and intermediate-risk PCa, whereas patients with high-risk PCa chose surgery (34%) or external radiation with neoadjuvant hormones (57%). Treatment choice differed by age at diagnosis, race, comorbidity status, and calendar year in both univariable and multivariable analyses. Patients preferred to play an active role in the decision-making process and cited doctors at the clinic as the most helpful source of treatment-related information. Almost all patients reported satisfaction with their decision. This is one of the first prospective cohort studies to examine treatment decision-making in an equal-access, multidisciplinary clinic setting. Studies of this cohort would aid in understanding and improving the PCa decision-making process. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Current health and preferences for life-prolonging treatments: an application of prospect theory to end-of-life decision making.

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Winter, Laraine; Parker, Barbara

2007-10-01

As a substantial body of research attests, the acceptability of life-prolonging treatment (e.g., tube feeding) tends to be greater among people in worse health than among healthier ones. Because a decision for or against a life-prolonging treatment represents a choice between two prospects-life (usually in poor health) and death-we propose a decision model, Prospect Theory, as a theoretical account of this phenomenon. Prospect Theory postulates that pairs of distant prospects are less distinguishable than pairs of closer ones. Thus, to healthy individuals, the prospects of death and life in poor health would both be remote, and therefore, the distinction between them, small. To less healthy individuals, however, the difference between the same pairs of prospects would appear greater, and therefore, life-prolonging treatment may be more acceptable. In a cross-sectional study of 304 community-dwelling people, aged 60 years and over in the Philadelphia area, USA, preferences for 4 life-prolonging treatments in 9 health scenarios were examined in relation to participants' current health, operationalized as number of deficits in physical functioning. As predicted, less healthy people expressed stronger preferences for all life-prolonging treatments compared with healthier ones, with differences greatest in the worse-health scenarios. Preferences also varied by health scenario, with any treatment preferred in the better health scenarios. Treatment preferences did not differ by type of treatment, depressed mood or any demographic characteristic except race, with African-Americans expressing stronger treatment preferences. Implications for advance care planning are discussed.

Clinical decision making and mental health service use in people with severe mental illness across Europe

OpenAIRE

Cosh, S.; Zentner, N.; Ay, E.; Loos, S.; Slade, Mike; Maj, Mario; Salzano, A.; Berecz, R.; Glaub, T.; Munk-Jørgensen, Povl; Krogsgaard Bording, M.; Rössler, Wulf; Kawohl, Wolfram; Puschner, Bernd

2017-01-01

Objective: This study aims to explore relationships between preferred and experienced clinical decision making with service use, and associated costs, by people with severe mental illness.\\ud Methods: Prospective observational study of mental healthcare in six European countries: Germany, UK, Italy Hungary, Denmark and Switzerland. Patients (N = 588) and treating clinicians (N = 213) reported preferred and experienced decision making at baseline using the Clinical Decision Making Style Scale ...

Exploring the link between environmental identity, behaviors and decision making

Science.gov (United States)

Freed, Allison

This study was conducted with undergraduate students at a large university to investigate the association between environmental identity, pro-environmental behaviors and environmental decision-making. This study explored how environmental identity as defined by Clayton (2003) influenced the type of pro-environmental behaviors individuals choose to participate in. Environmental decision-making based on Kahneman's (2003, 2011) System 1 and System 2 framework was also assessed in association with environmental identity. A survey including the Environmental Identity Survey (Clayton, 2003), the Environmentally Responsible Behaviors Index (Smith-Sebasto & D'Acosta, 1995), and a Decision Making Questionnaire were administered. After administering the surveys, eight participants were chosen for a 60-minute interview. The quantitative results of the study showed there was a significant relationship between environmental identity and participating in environmental behaviors more often. There was also a significant relation between environmental identity and making the decision to recycle in a fast and automatic way. The interview results showed that participants with both a strong and a weak environmental identity recycled often and thought it was a fast decision. The results of this study show that certain components of environmental identity are important, but other factors like the physical environment and social norms influence the thinking that goes into recycling more than environmental identity alone. This study provides evidence of the importance of social norms and environmental structures in fostering pro-environmental behaviors and influencing the type of thinking that goes into making environmental decisions. Keywords: environmental identity, environmental behaviors, System 1, System 2, recycling.

Neural and sympathetic activity associated with exploration in decision-making: Further evidence for involvement of insula

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Hideki eOhira

2014-11-01

Full Text Available We previously reported that sympathetic activity was associated with exploration in decision-making indexed by entropy, which is a concept in information theory and indexes randomness of choices or the degree of deviation from sticking to recent experiences of gains and losses, and that activation of the anterior insula mediated this association. The current study aims to replicate and to expand these findings in a situation where contingency between options and outcomes is manipulated. Sixteen participants performed a stochastic decision-making task in which we manipulated a condition with low uncertainty of gain/loss (contingent-reward condition and a condition with high uncertainty of gain/loss (random-reward condition. Regional cerebral blood flow was measured by 15O-water positron emission tomography (PET, and cardiovascular parameters and catecholamine in the peripheral blood were measured, during the task. In the contingent-reward condition, norepinephrine as an index of sympathetic activity was positively correlated with entropy indicating exploration in decision-making. Norepinephrine was negatively correlated with neural activity in the right posterior insula, rostral anterior cingulate cortex, and dorsal pons, suggesting neural bases for detecting changes of bodily states. Furthermore, right anterior insular activity was negatively correlated with entropy, suggesting influences on exploration in decision-making. By contrast, in the random-reward condition, entropy correlated with activity in the dorsolateral prefrontal and parietal cortices but not with sympathetic activity. These findings suggest that influences of sympathetic activity on exploration in decision-making and its underlying neural mechanisms might be dependent on the degree of uncertainty of situations.

The role of decision-making ability in HIV/AIDS: impact on prospective memory.

Science.gov (United States)

Coulehan, Kelly; Byrd, Desiree; Arentoft, Alyssa; Monzones, Jennifer; Fuentes, Armando; Fraser, Felicia; Rosario, Ana; Morgello, Susan; Mindt, Monica Rivera

2014-01-01

Prospective memory (ProM), a form of episodic memory related to execution of future intentions, is important for everyday functioning. Among persons living with HIV (PLWH), executive dysfunction is implicated in ProM impairments. However, specific subcomponents of executive functioning involved in ProM deficits remain poorly understood. Unlike more "traditional" neurocognitive (NC) measures of executive functioning associated with dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (i.e., conceptual reasoning, abstraction), those associated with medial orbitofrontal/ventromedial prefrontal (mOF/vmP) cortex (i.e., decision making, inhibitory control, goal-oriented behavior) have yet to be examined in ProM. This study characterized ProM ability in a sample of 89 HIV-seropositive adults and examined the unique role of decision-making ability in ProM. Participants completed a standard NC battery, the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT; a decision-making measure), and the Memory for Intentions Screening Test (MIST; a ProM measure). Correlational analyses revealed that both traditional executive functioning measures and the IGT were associated with ProM. Regression analyses revealed that the IGT significantly predicted ProM, even after accounting for NC measures. Among all NC measures, only executive functioning significantly contributed to ProM. Further examination of mOF/vmP-sensitive executive dysfunction within this population is needed as PLWH may require more tailored treatment recommendations due to specific decision-making difficulties that can impact medication management.

Consumer Decision-Making Styles and Local Brand Biasness: Exploration in the Czech Republic

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Wanninayake W.M.C.Bandara

2014-03-01

Full Text Available The modern marketer shows a growing interest in the research of consumer decision-making styles to understand how an individual makes his/her buying decisions in the competitive environment. This concept is important because it determines the behavioral patterns of consumers and is relevant for market segmentation. Most of the previous researchers have adapted to Consumer Style Inventory (CSI introduced by Sproles and Kendall in 1986 as a common tool for assessing the decision-making styles of customers. Though researchers have validated CSI in different cultural and social contexts, very limited studies were carried out to explore the relationship between consumer decision-making styles and their domestic brand biasness. Therefore, the present study mainly focuses on exploring the impact of consumer decision-making styles on their preference towards domestic brands in the context of the Czech Republic. The sample for this study was drawn from adult customers who live in the Brno, Zlín, and Olomouc regions in the Czech Republic. A group of students from the Bachelor’s degree programme in Management and Economics, Tomas Bata University in Zlín were selected as enumerators for data collection. Altogether 200 questionnaires were distributed and 123 completed questionnaires were taken in for final analysis. The decision- making styles were measured using Sproles and Kendall’s (1986 CSI instrument. Cronbach’s Alpha values of each construct confirmed that there is a good interring reliability associated with the data. Principle Component Analysis was employed to determine the decision-making styles of Czech customers and the one-way ANOVA was used for testing hypotheses. The findings revealed that seven decision-making styles are appeared among Czech customers and fashion consciousness, recreational orientation, impulsiveness, and price consciousness of customers show a direct relationship with the domestic brand biasness. Other styles did not

Decision Analysis Methods Used to Make Appropriate Investments in Human Exploration Capabilities and Technologies

Science.gov (United States)

Williams-Byrd, Julie; Arney, Dale C.; Hay, Jason; Reeves, John D.; Craig, Douglas

2016-01-01

NASA is transforming human spaceflight. The Agency is shifting from an exploration-based program with human activities in low Earth orbit (LEO) and targeted robotic missions in deep space to a more sustainable and integrated pioneering approach. Through pioneering, NASA seeks to address national goals to develop the capacity for people to work, learn, operate, live, and thrive safely beyond Earth for extended periods of time. However, pioneering space involves daunting technical challenges of transportation, maintaining health, and enabling crew productivity for long durations in remote, hostile, and alien environments. Prudent investments in capability and technology developments, based on mission need, are critical for enabling a campaign of human exploration missions. There are a wide variety of capabilities and technologies that could enable these missions, so it is a major challenge for NASA's Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate (HEOMD) to make knowledgeable portfolio decisions. It is critical for this pioneering initiative that these investment decisions are informed with a prioritization process that is robust and defensible. It is NASA's role to invest in targeted technologies and capabilities that would enable exploration missions even though specific requirements have not been identified. To inform these investments decisions, NASA's HEOMD has supported a variety of analysis activities that prioritize capabilities and technologies. These activities are often based on input from subject matter experts within the NASA community who understand the technical challenges of enabling human exploration missions. This paper will review a variety of processes and methods that NASA has used to prioritize and rank capabilities and technologies applicable to human space exploration. The paper will show the similarities in the various processes and showcase instances were customer specified priorities force modifications to the process. Specifically

Fast, faster, poorest decisions?: A practical theological exploration of the role of a speedy mobinomic world in decision-making

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Jan Albert van den Berg

2014-07-01

Full Text Available In a digital world, it seems as if the boundaries between rich and poor are becoming increasingly blurred. A mobinomic world is created through the use of cellular telephones, which plays an important role on multiple levels of socioeconomic understanding. Various advantages are created through the interplay between the power of mobility and the convergence of various forms of media. Considering the immediate accessibility of an overflow of data in various forms as well as time pressure, decision-making is increasingly becoming associated with living in the fast lane of the digital world. Unfortunately, the cost of faster decision-making is that it could potentially result in individuals making poor decisions on various levels. A practical-theological exploration, as embedded in a transversal rational engagement, entails a preliminary investigation and description of this digital reality, especially as portrayed in the dynamics of decision-making associated with the social media platform Twitter.

Entanglement production in quantum decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yukalov, V. I.; Sornette, D.

2010-01-01

The quantum decision theory introduced recently is formulated as a quantum theory of measurement. It describes prospect states represented by complex vectors of a Hilbert space over a prospect lattice. The prospect operators, acting in this space, form an involutive bijective algebra. A measure is defined for quantifying the entanglement produced by the action of prospect operators. This measure characterizes the level of complexity of prospects involved in decision making. An explicit expression is found for the maximal entanglement produced by the operators of multimode prospects.

The dynamics of change in decision making under risk

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Milićević Aleksandar

2007-01-01

Full Text Available The goal of this study was to investigate the dynamics of decision making under risk. In three experiments this dynamics have been explored with respect to probability of outcome and with respect to frame, i.e. the way the outcomes of the alternatives have been specified. The process of decision making was explored within a framework of expected utility and Prospect theory. The outcomes of alternatives as well as their probabilities were quantitatively specified (so that the expected value of a risk alternative was equal to the value of a non-risk alternative. The results of experiments indicate that the attitude towards risk (risk-proneness vs. risk-averseness depends on the outcome probability and the way the outcomes were specified (i.e. positive/negative frame. It was also demonstrated that content strongly affects the choices made in decision making. This outcome is somewhat unexpected and requires additional empirical evaluation.

Frontopolar cortex and decision-making efficiency: comparing brain activity of experts with different professional background during an exploration-exploitation task

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Daniella eLaureiro-Martínez

2014-01-01

Full Text Available An optimal balance between efficient exploitation of available resources and creative exploration of alternatives is critical for adaptation and survival. Previous studies associated these behavioral drives with, respectively, the dopaminergic mesocorticolimbic system and frontopolar-intraparietal networks. We study the activation of these systems in two age and gender-matched groups of experienced decision-makers differing in prior professional background, with the aim to understand the neural bases of individual differences in decision-making efficiency (performance divided by response time. We compare brain activity of entrepreneurs (who currently manage the organization they founded based on their venture idea and managers (who are constantly involved in making strategic decisions but have no venture experience engaged in a gambling-task assessing exploitative vs. explorative decision-making. Compared with managers, entrepreneurs showed higher decision-making efficiency, and a stronger activation in regions of frontopolar cortex previously associated with explorative choice. Moreover, activity across a network of regions previously linked to explore/exploit tradeoffs explained individual differences in choice efficiency. These results suggest new avenues for the study of individual differences in the neural antecedents of efficient decision-making.

Depending on scientific and technological progress to prospect for superlarge uranium deposits. Across-century target for uranium resources exploration work in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shen Feng

1995-01-01

After over 30 years' development, uranium resources exploration work in China has resulted in the discovery of more than 10 economic types of uranium deposits in 23 provinces (regions) of the whole country and large quantities of uranium reserves have been submitted which guarantee the development of nuclear industry in China. However, characteristics such as smaller size of deposits and ore bodies, and lower ore grade of discovered China's uranium deposits have brought about a series of problems on how to economically exploit and utilize these uranium resources. To prospect for superlarge uranium deposits is a guarantee of making uranium resources essentially meet the demand for the long-term development of nuclear industry in China, and is an important way of improving economic benefits in mining China's uranium resources. It is an important mark for uranium geological exploration work to go up a new step as well. China exhibits the geological environment in which various types of superlarge uranium deposits can be formed. Having the financial support from the state to uranium resources exploration work, having professional uranium exploration teams well-experienced in ore prospecting, having modernized uranium exploration techniques and equipment and also having foreign experience in prospecting for superlarge uranium deposits as reference, it is entirely possible to find out superlarge uranium deposits in China at the end of this century and at the beginning of next century. In order to realize the objective, the most important prerequisite is that research work on metallogenetic geological theory and exploration techniques and prospecting methodology for superlarge uranium deposits must be strengthened, and technical quality of the geological teams must be improved. Within this century, prospect targets should be selected and located accurately to carry out the emphatic breakthrough in exploration strategy

Strategic Decision Making in Community Colleges: An Exploration of Issues Relevant to Decision Making to Confer Community College Baccalaureate Degrees

Science.gov (United States)

Currier, Charles W.

2012-01-01

This qualitative case study explores the process community college senior administrators employ when assessing the complex strategic decision to confer community college baccalaureate degrees. Strategic opportunities, such as conferring baccalaureate degrees, occur infrequently thus community college leaders must be prepared to act quickly and…

Prospective Architectures for Onboard vs Cloud-Based Decision Making for Unmanned Aerial Systems

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Sankararaman, Shankar; Teubert, Christopher

2017-01-01

This paper investigates propsective architectures for decision-making in unmanned aerial systems. When these unmanned vehicles operate in urban environments, there are several sources of uncertainty that affect their behavior, and decision-making algorithms need to be robust to account for these different sources of uncertainty. It is important to account for several risk-factors that affect the flight of these unmanned systems, and facilitate decision-making by taking into consideration these various risk-factors. In addition, there are several technical challenges related to autonomous flight of unmanned aerial systems; these challenges include sensing, obstacle detection, path planning and navigation, trajectory generation and selection, etc. Many of these activities require significant computational power and in many situations, all of these activities need to be performed in real-time. In order to efficiently integrate these activities, it is important to develop a systematic architecture that can facilitate real-time decision-making. Four prospective architectures are discussed in this paper; on one end of the spectrum, the first architecture considers all activities/computations being performed onboard the vehicle whereas on the other end of the spectrum, the fourth and final architecture considers all activities/computations being performed in the cloud, using a new service known as Prognostics as a Service that is being developed at NASA Ames Research Center. The four different architectures are compared, their advantages and disadvantages are explained and conclusions are presented.

Prospecting direction and favourable target areas for exploration of large and super-large uranium deposits in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Xingzhong

1993-01-01

A host of large uranium deposits have been successively discovered abroad by means of geological exploration, metallogenetic model studies and the application of new geophysical and geochemical methods since 1970's. Thorough undertaking geological research relevant to prospecting for super large uranium deposits have attracted great attention of the worldwide geological circle. The important task for the vast numbers of uranium geological workers is to make an afford to discover more numerous large and super large uranium deposits in China. The author comprehensively analyses the regional geological setting and geological metallogenetic conditions for the super large uranium deposits in the world. Comparative studies have been undertaken and the prospecting direction and favourable target areas for the exploration of super large uranium deposits in China have been proposed

Exploring the Impact of Commuter’s Residential Location Choice on the Design of a Rail Transit Line Based on Prospect Theory

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Ding Liu

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper explores the impact of prospect theory based commuter’s residential location choice on the design problem of a rail transit line located in a monocentric city. A closed-form social welfare maximization model is proposed, with special consideration given to prospect theory based commuter’s residential location choice over years. Commuters are assumed to make residential location choice by a trade-off between daily housing rent and generalized travel cost to minimize their prospect values. The solutions properties of the proposed model are explored and compared analytically. It is found that overestimation exists for the optimal solutions of rail line length, headway, and fare based on traditional utility theory, compared with the optimal solutions of the proposed prospect theory based model. A numerical example is given to illustrate the properties of the proposed model.

Preferred and Perceived Participation of Younger and Older Patients in Decision Making About Treatment for Early Breast Cancer: A Prospective Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Hamelinck, Victoria C; Bastiaannet, Esther; Pieterse, Arwen H; van de Velde, Cornelis J H; Liefers, Gerrit-Jan; Stiggelbout, Anne M

2018-04-01

Older patients are believed to prefer a more passive role in treatment decision making, but studies reporting this relation were conducted over a decade ago or were retrospective. We prospectively compared younger (40-64 years) versus older (≥ 65 years) breast cancer patients' preferences for decision-making roles and their perceived actual roles. A prospective multicenter study was conducted in Leiden, The Hague, and Tilburg over a 2-year period. Early-stage breast cancer patients were surveyed about their preferred and perceived decision-making roles (active, shared, or passive) concerning surgery type (breast-conserving vs. mastectomy) (n = 74), adjuvant chemotherapy (aCT, n = 43), and adjuvant hormonal therapy (aHT, n = 39). For all decisions, both age groups most frequently preferred a shared role before consultation, except for decisions about aHT, for which younger patients more commonly preferred an active role. The proportion of patients favoring an active or passive role in each decision was lower for the older than the younger patients, but none of the differences was significant. Regarding perceived actual roles, both groups most frequently reported an active role in the surgical decision after consultation. In deciding about both aCT and aHT, a larger proportion of older patients perceived having had a passive role compared to younger patients, and a greater proportion of younger patients perceived having been active. Again, differences were not statistically significant. Most older patients preferred to decide together with their clinician, but preferences varied widely. Older patients more often than younger patients perceived they had not been involved in decisions about systemic therapy. Clinicians should invite all patients to participate in decision making and elicit their preferred role. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prospect Theory for Online Financial Trading

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Yang-Yu; Nacher, Jose C.; Ochiai, Tomoshiro; Martino, Mauro; Altshuler, Yaniv

2014-03-01

Prospect theory is widely viewed as the best available descriptive model of how people evaluate risk in experimental settings. According to prospect theory, people make decisions based on the potential value of losses and gains rather than the final outcome. People are risk-averse with respect to gains and risk-seeking with respect to losses, a phenomenon called ``loss aversion''. Despite of the fact that prospect theory has been well studied in behavioral economics at the theoretical level, there exist very few empirical research and most of them has been undertaken with micro-panel data. Here we analyze the trading activities of over 1.5 million members of an online financial trading community over 28 months, aiming to explore the large-scale empirical aspect of prospect theory. By analyzing and comparing the behaviour of ``winners'' and ``losers'', i.e., traders with positive or negative final net profit, we find clear evidence of the loss aversion phenomenon, an essence in prospect theory. This work demonstrates an unprecedented large-scale empirical evidence of prospect theory. It has immediate implication in financial trading, e.g., developing new trading strategies by minimizing the effect of loss aversion. It also provides opportunity to augment online social trading, where users are allowed to watch and follow the trading activity of others, by predicting potential winners based on their historical trading behaviour.

The Relationship of Career Decision-Making Self-Efficacy, Vocational Identity, and Career Exploration Behavior in African American High School Students

Science.gov (United States)

Gushue, George V.; Scanlan, Kolone R. L.; Pantzer, Karen M.; Clarke, Christine P.

2006-01-01

This study explores the relationship between the social cognitive construct of career decision-making self-efficacy and the outcome variables of vocational identity and career exploration behaviors in a sample of 72 urban African American high school students. The results indicate that higher levels of career decision-making self-efficacy are…

Mothering with an Intellectual Disability: A Phenomenological Exploration of Making Infant-Feeding Decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Guay, Amanda; Aunos, Marjorie; Collin-Vézina, Delphine

2017-01-01

Background: Mothers with intellectual disability are less likely than mothers without intellectual disability to breastfeed their infants, but there is little literature that addresses infant-feeding decisions among this population. This study explores experiences of mothers with intellectual disability in making and carrying out infant-feeding…

Patient Decision Aids Improve Decision Quality and Patient Experience and Reduce Surgical Rates in Routine Orthopaedic Care: A Prospective Cohort Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Sepucha, Karen; Atlas, Steven J; Chang, Yuchiao; Dorrwachter, Janet; Freiberg, Andrew; Mangla, Mahima; Rubash, Harry E; Simmons, Leigh H; Cha, Thomas

2017-08-02

Patient decision aids are effective in randomized controlled trials, yet little is known about their impact in routine care. The purpose of this study was to examine whether decision aids increase shared decision-making when used in routine care. A prospective study was designed to evaluate the impact of a quality improvement project to increase the use of decision aids for patients with hip or knee osteoarthritis, lumbar disc herniation, or lumbar spinal stenosis. A usual care cohort was enrolled before the quality improvement project and an intervention cohort was enrolled after the project. Participants were surveyed 1 week after a specialist visit, and surgical status was collected at 6 months. Regression analyses adjusted for clustering of patients within clinicians and examined the impact on knowledge, patient reports of shared decision-making in the visit, and surgical rates. With 550 surveys, the study had 80% to 90% power to detect a difference in these key outcomes. The response rates to the 1-week survey were 70.6% (324 of 459) for the usual care cohort and 70.2% (328 of 467) for the intervention cohort. There was no significant difference (p > 0.05) in any patient characteristic between the 2 cohorts. More patients received decision aids in the intervention cohort at 63.6% compared with the usual care cohort at 27.3% (p = 0.007). Decision aid use was associated with higher knowledge scores, with a mean difference of 18.7 points (95% confidence interval [CI], 11.4 to 26.1 points; p < 0.001) for the usual care cohort and 15.3 points (95% CI, 7.5 to 23.0 points; p = 0.002) for the intervention cohort. Patients reported more shared decision-making (p = 0.009) in the visit with their surgeon in the intervention cohort, with a mean Shared Decision-Making Process score (and standard deviation) of 66.9 ± 27.5 points, compared with the usual care cohort at 62.5 ± 28.6 points. The majority of patients received their preferred treatment, and this did not differ

Breakthrough and prospect of shale gas exploration and development in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dazhong Dong

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In the past five years, shale gas exploration and development has grown in a leaping-forward way in China. Following USA and Canada, China is now the third country where industrial shale gas production is realized, with the cumulative production exceeding 60 × 108 m3 until the end of 2015. In this paper, the main achievements of shale gas exploration and development in China in recent years were reviewed and the future development prospect was analyzed. It is pointed out that shale gas exploration and development in China is, on the whole, still at its early stage. Especially, marine shale gas in the Sichuan Basin has dominated the recent exploration and development. For the realization of shale gas scale development in China, one key point lies in the breakthrough and industrial production of transitional facies and continental facies shale gas. Low–moderate yield of shale gas wells is the normal in China, so it is crucial to develop key exploration and development technologies. Especially, strictly controlling single well investment and significantly reducing cost are the important means to increase shale gas exploration and development benefits. And finally, suggestions were proposed in five aspects. First, continuously strengthen theoretical and technical researches, actively carry out appraisal on shale gas “sweet spots”, and gradually accumulate development basis. Second, stress on primary evaluation of exploration and development, highlight the effective implementation of shale gas resources, and control the rhythm of appraisal drilling and productivity construction. Third, highlight fine description and evaluation of shale gas reservoirs and increase the overall development level. Fourth, intensify the research on exploration and development technologies in order to stand out simple and practical technologies with low costs. And fifth, summarize the experiences in fast growth of shale gas exploration and development, highlight

Metallogenic characteristics, model and exploration prospect for the paleo-interlayer-oxidation type sandstone-hosted uranium deposits in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang Jingbai; Li Shengxiang

2007-01-01

In this paper, the paleo-interlayer-oxidation type sandstone-hosted uranium deposits occurred in the Meso-Cenozoic continental basins in China are divided into 3 subtype, they are stratum over lapping buried subtype, structure-uplifting destroy subtype and faulted-folding conserved subtype. The metallogenic characteristics, metallogenic model and exploration prospect for these 3 subtypes uranium deposits are discussed. It is proposed that the paleo-interlayer-oxidation type sandstone-hosted uranium deposits, besides the recent interlayer oxidation type sandstone-hosted uranium deposits, are of great prospecting potential in the Meso-Cenozoic continental basins in China. Therefore, the metallogenic theory of these types uranium deposits should be conscientiously summarized and replenished continuously so as to propel forward the exploration of the sandstone-hosted uranium deposits in China. (authors)

Playing the Odds: Pascal’s Wager and Decision Making in the Long Scholarly Conversation

OpenAIRE

Black, Douglas

2013-01-01

This talk explores some of the philosophical issues surrounding the nature of the scholarly record and current challenges in academic libraries. The discussion arises from a 2011 Chronicle of Higher Education feature on a widely influential 1979 article entitled “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Making Under Risk,” which proposed a new model for how people assess risk and weigh decision factors. The theory has been applied to dozens of disciplines and cited thousands of times, and it ...

Development of the rational scheme of geological exploration process, its analysis and significance for prospecting and exploration of hydrocarbons at the russian sector of the Caspian sea

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I. V. Bystrova

2017-12-01

Full Text Available To conduct a justified assessment of the perspective resources of the Caspian Sea and adjacent territories, the authors develop a rational scheme of the geological exploration process with its analysis and identification of significance for hydrocarbon exploration in the northern part of the Caspian Sea. The paper outlines the methodological approaches and concepts of introducing this scheme in search for oil and gas. This allows us to justify and select the optimal set of research methods at various stages of oil and gas production. The system of structure and principles of organization scheme of the geological prospecting process allow to identify the optimal complexes of methods of geological-geophysical and other studies for these stages. The article provides information confirming the necessity of developing and implementing this scheme in the geological exploration process of the studied territory. The necessary development of opportunities in carrying out this work fundamentally changes the qualitative aspect of the geological exploration process. The facts presented in the article allow to study in detail the structures of the shelf zone, the thicknesses and composition of productive subsalt deposits, and to trace their interrelation with continental structural elements. The paper shows the importance of providing, at different levels, a rationale and choice of an optimal set of research methods at different stages of oil and gas prospecting during the development of a rational geological exploration scheme for hydrocarbons in water areas. This paper presents a proposed block diagram of a marine geological prospecting process for hydrocarbons. It describes the sequence of performing the types of work at the regional, exploratory and exploration stages. For each stage of the study, the authors set the tasks, determine the objects of research, methods of geological and geophysical research and their results, and determine methods for

Decision Exploration Lab : A Visual Analytics Solution for Decision Management

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Broeksema, Bertjan; Baudel, Thomas; Telea, Alex; Crisafulli, Paolo

2013-01-01

We present a visual analytics solution designed to address prevalent issues in the area of Operational Decision Management (ODM). In ODM, which has its roots in Artificial Intelligence (Expert Systems) and Management Science, it is increasingly important to align business decisions with business

Memory and decision making: Effects of sequential presentation of probabilities and outcomes in risky prospects.

Science.gov (United States)

Millroth, Philip; Guath, Mona; Juslin, Peter

2018-06-07

The rationality of decision making under risk is of central concern in psychology and other behavioral sciences. In real-life, the information relevant to a decision often arrives sequentially or changes over time, implying nontrivial demands on memory. Yet, little is known about how this affects the ability to make rational decisions and a default assumption is rather that information about outcomes and probabilities are simultaneously available at the time of the decision. In 4 experiments, we show that participants receiving probability- and outcome information sequentially report substantially (29 to 83%) higher certainty equivalents than participants with simultaneous presentation. This holds also for monetary-incentivized participants with perfect recall of the information. Participants in the sequential conditions often violate stochastic dominance in the sense that they pay more for a lottery with low probability of an outcome than participants in the simultaneous condition pay for a high probability of the same outcome. Computational modeling demonstrates that Cumulative Prospect Theory (Tversky & Kahneman, 1992) fails to account for the effects of sequential presentation, but a model assuming anchoring-and adjustment constrained by memory can account for the data. By implication, established assumptions of rationality may need to be reconsidered to account for the effects of memory in many real-life tasks. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Design and Implementation WebGIS for Improving the Quality of Exploration Decisions at Sin-Quyen Copper Mine, Northern Vietnam

Science.gov (United States)

Quang Truong, Xuan; Luan Truong, Xuan; Nguyen, Tuan Anh; Nguyen, Dinh Tuan; Cong Nguyen, Chi

2017-12-01

The objective of this study is to design and implement a WebGIS Decision Support System (WDSS) for reducing uncertainty and supporting to improve the quality of exploration decisions in the Sin-Quyen copper mine, northern Vietnam. The main distinctive feature of the Sin-Quyen deposit is an unusual composition of ores. Computer and software applied to the exploration problem have had a significant impact on the exploration process over the past 25 years, but up until now, no online system has been undertaken. The system was completely built on open source technology and the Open Geospatial Consortium Web Services (OWS). The input data includes remote sensing (RS), Geographical Information System (GIS) and data from drillhole explorations, the drillhole exploration data sets were designed as a geodatabase and stored in PostgreSQL. The WDSS must be able to processed exploration data and support users to access 2-dimensional (2D) or 3-dimensional (3D) cross-sections and map of boreholles exploration data and drill holes. The interface was designed in order to interact with based maps (e.g., Digital Elevation Model, Google Map, OpenStreetMap) and thematic maps (e.g., land use and land cover, administrative map, drillholes exploration map), and to provide GIS functions (such as creating a new map, updating an existing map, querying and statistical charts). In addition, the system provides geological cross-sections of ore bodies based on Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW), nearest neighbour interpolation and Kriging methods (e.g., Simple Kriging, Ordinary Kriging, Indicator Kriging and CoKriging). The results based on data available indicate that the best estimation method (of 23 borehole exploration data sets) for estimating geological cross-sections of ore bodies in Sin-Quyen copper mine is Ordinary Kriging. The WDSS could provide useful information to improve drilling efficiency in mineral exploration and for management decision making.

Bibliometrics as a Tool for Supporting Prospective R&D Decision-Making in the Health Sciences

Science.gov (United States)

Ismail, Sharif; Nason, Edward; Marjanovic, Sonja; Grant, Jonathan

2012-01-01

Abstract Bibliometric analysis is an increasingly important part of a broader “toolbox” of evaluation methods available to research and development (R&D) policymakers to support decision-making. In the US, UK and Australia, for example, there is evidence of gradual convergence over the past ten years towards a model of university research assessment and ranking incorporating the use of bibliometric measures. In Britain, the Department of Health (England) has shown growing interest in using bibliometric analysis to support prospective R&D decision-making, and has engaged RAND Europe's expertise in this area through a number of exercises since 2005. These range from the macro-level selection of potentially high impact institutions, to micro-level selection of high impact individuals for the National Institute for Health Research's faculty of researchers. The aim of this study is to create an accessible, “beginner's guide” to bibliometric theory and application in the area of health R&D decision-making. The study also aims to identify future directions and possible next steps in this area, based on RAND Europe's work with the Department of Health to date. It is targeted at a range of audiences, and will be of interest to health and biomedical researchers, as well as R&D decision-makers in the UK and elsewhere. The study was completed with funding support from RAND Europe's Health R&D Policy Research Unit with the Department of Health. PMID:28083218

Managing Complexity: Exploring Decision Making on Medication by Young Adults with ADHD.

Science.gov (United States)

Druedahl, Louise C; Kälvemark Sporrong, Sofia

2018-04-19

Attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) causes difficulties with hyperactivity, impulsivity and inattention. Treatment of ADHD includes both medication and non-pharmacological options. Knowledge of treatment preferences by young adults with ADHD is sparse. The objective of this study was to explore the beliefs and experiences of young adults with ADHD related to their medication treatment decisions. Data were collected in Denmark in 2016 through a focus group and individual in-depth interviews. Conventional content analysis was used. Ten young adults with ADHD (22-to 29-year-old) participated. Three major themes were identified: (1) the patient’s right to choose concerning ADHD medicine; (2) the patient’s decision of whether or not to treat ADHD with medication; and (3) factors affecting the patient’s decision on whether to take ADHD medication or not. The latter theme contained 15 factors, which were distributed across three levels: individual, between-individuals, and societal. The dominant factors were increasing quality of life and improving oneself e.g., improving social skills. For counselling at the pharmacy and by prescribers, it is important to be aware of the different factors that affect young adult patients’ decisions on whether to take ADHD medication or not. This knowledge will aid to understand reasons for non-adherence and to determine appropriate treatment for the individual patient.

Using Fuzzy Probability Weights in Cumulative Prospect Theory

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Užga-Rebrovs Oļegs

2016-12-01

Full Text Available During the past years, a rapid growth has been seen in the descriptive approaches to decision choice. As opposed to normative expected utility theory, these approaches are based on the subjective perception of probabilities by the individuals, which takes place in real situations of risky choice. The modelling of this kind of perceptions is made on the basis of probability weighting functions. In cumulative prospect theory, which is the focus of this paper, decision prospect outcome weights are calculated using the obtained probability weights. If the value functions are constructed in the sets of positive and negative outcomes, then, based on the outcome value evaluations and outcome decision weights, generalised evaluations of prospect value are calculated, which are the basis for choosing an optimal prospect.

Communication prompts donation: exploring the beliefs underlying registration and discussion of the organ donation decision.

Science.gov (United States)

Hyde, Melissa K; White, Katherine M

2009-09-01

To use a theory of planned behaviour (TPB) framework to explore the beliefs underlying communication of the donation decision for people who had not previously registered their consent on a donor register or discussed their decision with significant others. Initially, a focus group study elicited the common TPB (behavioural, normative, and control) beliefs about registering and discussing the organ donation decision. The main study assessed the important TPB belief predictors of intentions to register and discuss the donation decision. University students and community members from Queensland, Australia (N=123) completed items assessing their intentions and the TPB behavioural, normative, and control beliefs for registering and discussing their donation decision. Structural equation modelling (SEM) analyses revealed significant paths between people's intentions to register their donation decisions and underlying behavioural (e.g. enabling efficient donation procedures), normative (e.g. friends, doctors/medical professionals), and control (e.g. lack of motivation, knowing details about transplant recipients) beliefs (R2=.30). There were also significant paths between people's intentions to discuss their donation decision and underlying behavioural (e.g. feeling uncomfortable talking about death related topics) and normative (e.g. partner/spouse, family members) beliefs, but not control beliefs (R2=.33). There was a significant path between intentions to register and intentions to discuss one's donation decision. Results highlight the importance of focusing on behavioural and normative beliefs about communicating the donation decision, specifically for people who have not previously communicated their decision, and suggest potential targets for interventions designed to promote decision communication.

Upper Paleozoic Marine Shale Characteristics and Exploration Prospects in the Northwestern Guizhong Depression, South China

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Zhenhong; Yao, Genshun; Lou, Zhanghua; Jin, Aimin; Zhu, Rong; Jin, Chong; Chen, Chao

2018-05-01

Multiple sets of organic-rich shales developed in the Upper Paleozoic of the northwestern Guizhong Depression in South China. However, the exploration of these shales is presently at a relatively immature stage. The Upper Paleozoic shales in the northwestern Guizhong Depression, including the Middle Devonian Luofu shale, the Nabiao shale, and the Lower Carboniferous Yanguan shale, were investigated in this study. Mineral composition analysis, organic matter analysis (including total organic carbon (TOC) content, maceral of kerogen and the vitrinite reflection (Ro)), pore characteristic analysis (including porosity and permeability, pore type identification by SEM, and pore size distribution by nitrogen sorption), methane isothermal sorption test were conducted, and the distribution and thickness of the shales were determined, Then the characteristics of the two target shales were illustrated and compared. The results show that the Upper Paleozoic shales have favorable organic matter conditions (mainly moderate to high TOC content, type I and II1 kerogen and high to over maturity), good fracability potential (brittleness index (BI) > 40%), multiple pore types, stable distribution and effective thickness, and good methane sorption capacity. Therefore, the Upper Paleozoic shales in the northern Guizhong Depression have good shale gas potential and exploration prospects. Moreover, the average TOC content, average BI, thickness of the organic-rich shale (TOC > 2.0 wt%) and the shale gas resources of the Middle Devonian shales are better than those of the Lower Carboniferous shale. The Middle Devonian shales have better shale gas potential and exploration prospects than the Lower Carboniferous shales.

Decision Making Models in the Financial Market: A Study in the Light of Prospect Theory and Limited Rationality

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Alex Diego Souza Queiroz

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The objective of this study was to determine whether the decision-making models present in Prospect Theory and the theory of limited rationality could help managers of financial institutions identify and control the emotions and rational limitations involved in the credit granting process in the financial market. To this end, a study was carried out with 17 bank managers as experimental group and 31 other managers from different areas as control group. Adopting a quantitative approach to research, questionnaires were sent electronically to a number of bank branches. Five scenarios were presented, seeking to identify the influence of behavioral factors on decisions in situations of risk. In addition, emotional triggers were included in some questions in order to verify the influence of this component on responses. Results were treated with SPSS software, using descriptive analysis of data and the statistical test Chi-square (χ². Results observed for the five scenarios indicated that emotions and limited rationality in complex environments tend to influence managers in their decision-making process. The study evidence suggests differences in decision-making in accordance with how the problem is presented.

'It's just the normal thing to do': exploring parental decision-making about the 'five-in-one' vaccine.

Science.gov (United States)

Tickner, Sarah; Leman, Patrick J; Woodcock, Alison

2007-10-16

This qualitative study explored parental decision-making about the DTaP/IPV/Hib 'five-in-one' vaccine. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 22 parents of babies aged between 4 and 13 weeks old, recruited from four practices in southern England. A modified Grounded Theory approach identified that although parents had some concerns, most complied with the recommended programme rather than making an informed decision. Other themes related to perceived importance of immunisation; beliefs about how immunisation works; trust; perceptions of vulnerability; feelings of guilt and responsibility; and practicalities. It is important to explore how parents' attitudes change over the preschool years and to develop ways of addressing uncertainties about immunisation, including the safety of combining antigens and the need for boosters.

What an option is worth for an exploration opportunity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MacKay, J.A.; Lerche, I.

1995-01-01

The reason that a corporation might want to take an option on an opportunity is to wait until more information becomes available before committing to the decision to drill. For instance, in a situation where an opportunity is one of the first prospects in a new play trend, there is often very little known (as opposed to surmised) about the potential gain, and the chances of success are also often poorly determined. Thus, until the estimates of costs, gains, and success chances are firmed up in the future by drilling information from other operators, the corporation would prefer to hold off on the decision to drill a particular prospect. Recently Dixit and Pindyck have persuasively argued qualitatively that an options approach should be taken to capital investment in any business field because, opportunities are options--rights but not obligations to take some action in the future and, as soon as you begin thinking of investment opportunities as options, the premise (that investment decisions can be reversed if conditions change or, if they cannot be reversed, that they are now-or-never propositions) changes. Irreversibility, uncertainty, and the choice of timing alter the investment decision in critical ways. From an oil industry perspective Dixit and Pindyck eloquently provide the rationale for considering an option position rather than dealing only with net present value considerations. The ability to calculate the worth of an option to a hydrocarbon exploration opportunity is what this article is about

Exploring the Impact of Early Decisions in Variable Ordering for Constraint Satisfaction Problems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José Carlos Ortiz-Bayliss

2018-01-01

Full Text Available When solving constraint satisfaction problems (CSPs, it is a common practice to rely on heuristics to decide which variable should be instantiated at each stage of the search. But, this ordering influences the search cost. Even so, and to the best of our knowledge, no earlier work has dealt with how first variable orderings affect the overall cost. In this paper, we explore the cost of finding high-quality orderings of variables within constraint satisfaction problems. We also study differences among the orderings produced by some commonly used heuristics and the way bad first decisions affect the search cost. One of the most important findings of this work confirms the paramount importance of first decisions. Another one is the evidence that many of the existing variable ordering heuristics fail to appropriately select the first variable to instantiate. Another one is the evidence that many of the existing variable ordering heuristics fail to appropriately select the first variable to instantiate. We propose a simple method to improve early decisions of heuristics. By using it, performance of heuristics increases.

Exploring the Impact of Early Decisions in Variable Ordering for Constraint Satisfaction Problems.

Science.gov (United States)

Ortiz-Bayliss, José Carlos; Amaya, Ivan; Conant-Pablos, Santiago Enrique; Terashima-Marín, Hugo

2018-01-01

When solving constraint satisfaction problems (CSPs), it is a common practice to rely on heuristics to decide which variable should be instantiated at each stage of the search. But, this ordering influences the search cost. Even so, and to the best of our knowledge, no earlier work has dealt with how first variable orderings affect the overall cost. In this paper, we explore the cost of finding high-quality orderings of variables within constraint satisfaction problems. We also study differences among the orderings produced by some commonly used heuristics and the way bad first decisions affect the search cost. One of the most important findings of this work confirms the paramount importance of first decisions. Another one is the evidence that many of the existing variable ordering heuristics fail to appropriately select the first variable to instantiate. Another one is the evidence that many of the existing variable ordering heuristics fail to appropriately select the first variable to instantiate. We propose a simple method to improve early decisions of heuristics. By using it, performance of heuristics increases.

Emerging conservation challenges and prospects in an era of offshore hydrocarbon exploration and exploitation.

Science.gov (United States)

Kark, Salit; Brokovich, Eran; Mazor, Tessa; Levin, Noam

2015-12-01

Globally, extensive marine areas important for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem functioning are undergoing exploration and extraction of oil and natural gas resources. Such operations are expanding to previously inaccessible deep waters and other frontier regions, while conservation-related legislation and planning is often lacking. Conservation challenges arising from offshore hydrocarbon development are wide-ranging. These challenges include threats to ecosystems and marine species from oil spills, negative impacts on native biodiversity from invasive species colonizing drilling infrastructure, and increased political conflicts that can delay conservation actions. With mounting offshore operations, conservationists need to urgently consider some possible opportunities that could be leveraged for conservation. Leveraging options, as part of multi-billion dollar marine hydrocarbon operations, include the use of facilities and costly equipment of the deep and ultra-deep hydrocarbon industry for deep-sea conservation research and monitoring and establishing new conservation research, practice, and monitoring funds and environmental offsetting schemes. The conservation community, including conservation scientists, should become more involved in the earliest planning and exploration phases and remain involved throughout the operations so as to influence decision making and promote continuous monitoring of biodiversity and ecosystems. A prompt response by conservation professionals to offshore oil and gas developments can mitigate impacts of future decisions and actions of the industry and governments. New environmental decision support tools can be used to explicitly incorporate the impacts of hydrocarbon operations on biodiversity into marine spatial and conservation plans and thus allow for optimum trade-offs among multiple objectives, costs, and risks. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Exploring the relation between evidence and decision-making A political-administrative approach to health impact assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bekker, Marleen P.M.; Putters, Kim; Grinten, Tom E.D. van der

2004-01-01

Like any policy-relevant research, HIA faces the risk of not being used by decisions-makers. This article addresses the questions: 'How do policy decisions come about?' and 'How does this affect HIA?' Current literature in political-administrative sciences identifies three ways for decision-making: rational, incremental and mixed model. These models define the relationship between the policy process at stake and the HIA. In incremental or mixed model decision-making, use of HIA evidence by policy-makers is heavily dependent on their values in the context, which may result in conceptual utilization or may extend to strategic utilization. In rational decision-making, HIA provides information independent from the context, which results in instrumental utilization. HIA practitioners need to optimise utilization and produce an appropriate HIA by mapping the policy process. They can do this by asking the questions 'What? How? Who? and What context? and by maintaining continuous communication with the decision-makers. An appropriate HIA is policy-, time- and place-specific: reflecting the decision-making of the policy at stake. Furthermore, HIA concerns two policy fields with two different contexts and, in some cases, two different decision-making models. The administrative requirements for an appropriate HIA need further exploration

Decision Making Models in the Financial Market: A Study in the Light of Prospect Theory and Limited Rationality

OpenAIRE

Alex Diego Souza Queiroz; Marilia Oliveira dos Reis; Joseilton Silveira da Rocha

2016-01-01

The objective of this study was to determine whether the decision-making models present in Prospect Theory and the theory of limited rationality could help managers of financial institutions identify and control the emotions and rational limitations involved in the credit granting process in the financial market. To this end, a study was carried out with 17 bank managers as experimental group and 31 other managers from different areas as control group. Adopting a quantitative approach to rese...

Exploring cognitive bias in destination therapy left ventricular assist device decision making: A retrospective qualitative framework analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Magid, Molly; McIlvennan, Colleen K; Jones, Jaqueline; Nowels, Carolyn T; Allen, Larry A; Thompson, Jocelyn S; Matlock, Dan

2016-10-01

Cognitive biases are psychological influences, which cause humans to make decisions, which do not seemingly maximize utility. For people with heart failure, the left ventricular assist device (LVAD) is a surgically implantable device with complex tradeoffs. As such, it represents an excellent model within which to explore cognitive bias in a real-world decision. We conducted a framework analysis to examine for evidence of cognitive bias among people deciding whether or not to get an LVAD. The aim of this study was to explore the influence of cognitive bias on the LVAD decision-making process. We analyzed previously conducted interviews of patients who had either accepted or declined an LVAD using a deductive, predetermined framework of cognitive biases. We coded and analyzed the interviews using an inductive-deductive framework approach, which also allowed for other themes to emerge. We interviewed a total of 22 heart failure patients who had gone through destination therapy LVAD decision making (15 who had accepted the LVAD and 7 who had declined). All patients appeared influenced by state dependence, where both groups described high current state of suffering, but the groups differed in whether they believed LVAD would relieve suffering or not. We found evidence of cognitive bias that appeared to influence decision making in both patient groups, but groups differed in terms of which cognitive biases were present. Among accepters, we found evidence of anchoring bias, availability bias, optimism bias, and affective forecasting. Among decliners, we found evidence of errors in affective forecasting. Medical decision making is often a complicated and multifaceted process that includes cognitive bias as well as other influences. It is important for clinicians to recognize that patients can be affected by cognitive bias, so they can better understand and improve the decision-making process to ensure that patients are fully informed. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Comparative prospective randomized trial: laparoscopic versus open common bile duct exploration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vladimir Grubnik

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Single-stage laparoscopic procedures for common bile duct (CBD stones are an alternative treatmentoption to two-stage endo-laparoscopic treatment and to open choledocholithotomy. Several reports have demonstratedthe feasibility, safety, efficiency and cost-effectiveness of laparoscopic techniques.Aim: To analyse the safety and benefits of laparoscopic compared to open common bile duct (CBD exploration.Material and methods: The prospective randomized trial included a total of 256 patients with CBD stones operated from2005 to 2009 in a single centre. The male/female ratio was 82/174, with a median age 62.3 ±5.8 years (range 27 to 87years. There were two groups of patients. Group I: laparoscopic CBD exploration (138 patients. Group II: open CBD exploration(118 patients. Patient comorbidity was assessed by means of the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA classification;ASA II – 109 patients, ASA III – 59 patients. Bile duct stones were visualized preoperatively by means of US examinationin 129 patients, by means of ERCP in 26 patients, and by magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCPin 72 patients. Preoperative evaluation was done through medical history, biochemical tests and ultrasonography.Results: The mean duration of laparoscopic procedures was 82 min (range 40-160 min. The mean duration of openprocedures was 90 min (range 60-150 min. Mean blood loss was much lower in the laparoscopic group than in theopen group (20 ±2 v.s 285 ±27, p < 0.01. Postoperative complications were observed in 7 patients of the laparoscopicgroup and in 15 patients in the open group (p < 0.01. Laparoscopic common bile duct exploration was performedthrough a trans-cystic approach in 76 patients and via choledochotomy in 62 patients. The transcystic approach wassuccessful in 76 patients (74.5%. External drainage was used in 25 (32.8% patients with the transcystic approach.Conclusions: Laparoscopic CBD exploration can be performed with

Job decision latitude, job demands, and cardiovascular disease: a prospective study of Swedish men.

Science.gov (United States)

Karasek, R; Baker, D; Marxer, F; Ahlbom, A; Theorell, T

1981-07-01

The association between specific job characteristics and subsequent cardiovascular disease was tested using a large random sample of the male working Swedish population. The prospective development of coronary heart disease (CHD) symptoms and signs was analyzed using a multivariate logistic regression technique. Additionally, a case-controlled study was used to analyze all cardiovascular-cerebrovascular (CHD-CVD) deaths during a six-year follow-up. The indicator of CHD symptoms and signs was validated in a six-year prospective study of CHD deaths (standardized mortality ratio 5.0; p less than or equal to .001). A hectic and psychologically demanding job increases the risk of developing CHD symptoms and signs (standardized odds ratio 1.29, p less than 0.25) and premature CHD-CVD death (relative risk 4.0, p less than .01). Low decision latitude-expressed as low intellectual discretion and low personal schedule freedom-is also associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease. Low intellectual discretion predicts the development of CHD symptoms and signs (SOR 1.44, p less than .01), while low personal schedule freedom among the majority of workers with the minimum statutory education increases the risk of CHD-CVD death (RR 6.6, p less than .0002). The associations exist after controlling for age, education, smoking, and overweight.

Decision-making deficits in patients with chronic schizophrenia: Iowa Gambling Task and Prospect Valence Learning model.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Myung-Sun; Kang, Bit-Na; Lim, Jae Young

2016-01-01

Decision-making is the process of forming preferences for possible options, selecting and executing actions, and evaluating the outcome. This study used the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) and the Prospect Valence Learning (PVL) model to investigate deficits in risk-reward related decision-making in patients with chronic schizophrenia, and to identify decision-making processes that contribute to poor IGT performance in these patients. Thirty-nine patients with schizophrenia and 31 healthy controls participated. Decision-making was measured by total net score, block net scores, and the total number of cards selected from each deck of the IGT. PVL parameters were estimated with the Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling scheme in OpenBugs and BRugs, its interface to R, and the estimated parameters were analyzed with the Mann-Whitney U-test. The schizophrenia group received significantly lower total net scores compared to the control group. In terms of block net scores, an interaction effect of group × block was observed. The block net scores of the schizophrenia group did not differ across the five blocks, whereas those of the control group increased as the blocks progressed. The schizophrenia group obtained significantly lower block net scores in the fourth and fifth blocks of the IGT and selected cards from deck D (advantageous) less frequently than the control group. Additionally, the schizophrenia group had significantly lower values on the utility-shape, loss-aversion, recency, and consistency parameters of the PVL model. These results indicate that patients with schizophrenia experience deficits in decision-making, possibly due to failure in learning the expected value of each deck, and incorporating outcome experiences of previous trials into expectancies about options in the present trial.

Prospective targets of geological exploration in the Siberian platform and criteria of their feasibility

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D.V. Milyaev

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The relevance of the study is due to the reducing number of prospective blocks remaining unlicensed in Eastern Siberia and the need for feasibility study of the remaining potentially attractive blocks. The aim of the study is evaluation of the resource potential and allocation of new prospective license blocks in Eastern Siberia based on geological and economic criteria. The methods and instruments used in the study. To perform the economic analysis of resources and to assess the efficiency and risks of subsoil exploration and development, the authors used the results of in-house regional geological and geophysical modelling and economic research. A feasibility study of each potential pool was conducted on the author’s automated complex GeoProfi. The authors used probabilistic analysis and the cash flow discounting method to draw up an expert forecast. The results of the study. The study covers the present state and development prospects of oil and gas fields in the Siberian Platform within the Krasnoyarsk Territory, the Irkutsk Region, and the Sakha (Yakutia Republic. The top priority petroleum zones were analysed. A feasibility study of selected areas was conducted. The income density and feasible recoverable reserves density were mapped. The critical parameters that indicate unprofitable targets were calculated. The most feasible subsoil blocks were determined based on the correlation of economic and probability parameters.

New Paradoxes of Risky Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

Birnbaum, Michael H.

2008-01-01

During the last 25 years, prospect theory and its successor, cumulative prospect theory, replaced expected utility as the dominant descriptive theories of risky decision making. Although these models account for the original Allais paradoxes, 11 new paradoxes show where prospect theories lead to self-contradiction or systematic false predictions.…

Health values and prospect theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Treadwell, J R; Lenert, L A

1999-01-01

Health values are important components of medical decisions. Experimental data suggest that people value health in complex and dynamic ways. Prospect theory is a descriptive theory of choice that may accurately characterize how people assign values to health states. The authors first provide background on prospect theory and how it can be applied to health values. Next, they review the relevant health research and find mixed support for prospect theory. Last, they discuss implications of prospect theory for cost-effectiveness analysis. The application of prospect theory to health deserves further research because it may help clarify the link between health and values.

The Eldicus prospective, observational study of triage decision making in European intensive care units. Part II: Intensive care benefit for the elderly

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sprung, Charles L; Artigas, Antonio; Kesecioglu, Jozef

2012-01-01

on mortality and intensive care unit benefit, specifically for elderly patients. DESIGN:: Prospective, observational study of triage decisions from September 2003 until March 2005. SETTING:: Eleven intensive care units in seven European countries. PATIENTS:: All patients >18 yrs with an explicit request......RATIONALE:: Life and death triage decisions are made daily by intensive care unit physicians. Admission to an intensive care unit is denied when intensive care unit resources are constrained, especially for the elderly. OBJECTIVE:: To determine the effect of intensive care unit triage decisions...... care unit rejections than younger patients and have a higher mortality when admitted, the mortality benefit appears greater for the elderly. Physicians should consider changing their intensive care unit triage practices for the elderly....

PARTICIPATORY DESIGN: AN INTERSUBJECTIVE SCHEMA FOR DECISION MAKING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tom Sanya

2016-04-01

Full Text Available The focus of this paper is participatory design (PD; a field that has been in existence since the 1960s. Reflections on a PD project in which the author played a central role revealed that existing literature does not engage adequately with intersubjective decision-making in PD processes. In this paper, appropriation and re-imagination of the Nordic framework for performance-based standards results in a novel multidimensional schema with five mutually related steps. Analysis indicates that the schema has a capacity for enhancing intersubjectivity in PD decision-making while also rendering the process more malleable to multiple viewpoints and their fusion into progressively definitive shared outcomes. In the conclusions, prospects for projective and reflective application of the schema explore its transformative capacity for professional and lay participants and its potential role in engendering critical design pedagogy.

Goals and plans in decision making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David H. Krantz

2007-06-01

Full Text Available We propose a constructed-choice model for general decision making. The model departs from utility theory and prospect theory in its treatment of multiple goals and it suggests several different ways in which context can affect choice. It is particularly instructive to apply this model to protective decisions, which are often puzzling. Among other anomalies, people insure against non-catastrophic events, underinsure against catastrophic risks, and allow extraneous factors to influence insurance purchases and other protective decisions. Neither expected-utility theory nor prospect theory can explain these anomalies satisfactorily. To apply this model to the above anomalies, we consider many different insurance-related goals, organized in a taxonomy, and we consider the effects of context on goals, resources, plans and decision rules. The paper concludes by suggesting some prescriptions for improving individual decision making with respect to protective measures.

Statistics of Petroleum Exploration in the World Outside the United States and Canada Through 2001

Science.gov (United States)

Attanasi, E.D.; Freeman, P.A.; Glovier, Jennifer A.

2007-01-01

and 77 percent of the gas discovered in the study area. The petroleum industry's decision to incur the greater costs of moving offshore and into deeper waters appears to be a response to the absence of onshore prospects of comparable quality. Where natural gas can be commercially developed and marketed, data show an expansion of exploration to target gas-prone areas.

PROMETHEE II: A knowledge-driven method for copper exploration

Science.gov (United States)

Abedi, Maysam; Ali Torabi, S.; Norouzi, Gholam-Hossain; Hamzeh, Mohammad; Elyasi, Gholam-Reza

2012-09-01

This paper describes the application of a well-known Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) technique called Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE II) to explore porphyry copper deposits. Various raster-based evidential layers involving geological, geophysical, and geochemical geo-datasets are integrated to prepare a mineral prospectivity mapping (MPM). In a case study, thirteen layers of the Now Chun copper deposit located in the Kerman province of Iran are used to explore the region of interest. The PROMETHEE II technique is applied to produce the desired MPM, and the outputs are validated using twenty-one boreholes that have been classified into five classes. This proposed method shows a high performance when providing the MPM while reducing the cost of exploratory drilling in the study area.

Rationing is a reality in rural physiotherapy: a qualitative exploration of service level decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, Robyn; Jones, Anne; Lefmann, Sophie; Sheppard, Lorraine

2015-03-27

Deciding what health services are provided is a key consideration in delivering appropriate and accessible health care for rural and remote populations. Despite residents of rural communities experiencing poorer health outcomes and exhibiting higher health need, workforce shortages and maldistribution mean that rural communities do not have access to the range of services available in metropolitan centres. Where demand exceeds available resources, decisions about resource allocation are required. A qualitative approach enabled the researchers to explore participant perspectives about decisions informing rural physiotherapy service provision. Stakeholder perspectives were obtained through surveys and in-depth interviews. A system theory-case study heuristic provided a framework for exploration across sites within the investigation area: a large area of one Australian state with a mix of rural, regional and remote communities. Thirty-nine surveys were received from participants in eleven communities. Nineteen in-depth interviews were conducted with physiotherapist and key decision-makers. Increasing demand, organisational priorities, fiscal austerity measures and workforce challenges were identified as factors influencing both decision-making and service provision. Rationing of physiotherapy services was common to all sites of this study. Rationing of services, more commonly expressed as service prioritisation, was more evident in responses of public sector physiotherapy participants compared to private physiotherapists. However, private physiotherapists in rural areas reported capacity limits, including expertise, space and affordability that constrained service provision. The imbalance between increasing service demands and limited physiotherapy capacity meant making choices was inevitable. Decreased community access to local physiotherapy services and increased workforce stress, a key determinant of retention, are two results of such choices or decisions

An Exploration of Dual Systems via Time Pressure Manipulation in Decision-making Problems

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Lisa

Every day, decisions need to be made where time is a limiting factor. Regardless of situation, time constraints often place a premium on rapid decision-making. Researchers have been interested in studying this human behavior and understanding its underlying cognitive processes. In previous studies, scientists have believed that the cognitive processes underlying decision-making behavior were consistent with dual-process modes of thinking. Critics of dual-process theory question the vagueness of its definition, and claim that single-process accounts can explain the data just as well. My aim is to elucidate the cognitive processes that underlie decisions which involve some level of risk through the experimental manipulation of time pressure. Using this method, I hope to distinguish between competing hypotheses related to the origin of the effect. I will explore three types of decisions that illustrate these concepts: risky decision-making involving gambles, intertemporal choice, and one-shot public goods games involving social cooperation. In our experiments, participants made decisions about gambles framed as either gains or losses; decided upon intertemporal choices for smaller but sooner rewards or larger but later rewards; and played a one-shot public goods game involving social cooperation and contributing an amount of money to a group. In each case, we experimentally manipulated time pressure, either within subjects or among individuals. Results showed under time pressure, increased framing effects under in both hypothetical and incentivized choices; and greater contributions and cooperation among individuals, lending support to the dual process hypothesis that these effects arise from a fast, intuitive system. However, our intertemporal choice experiment showed that time constraints led to increased selection of the larger but later options, which suggests that the magnitude of the reward may play larger role in choice selection under cognitive load than

A qualitative exploration of patient and family views and experiences of treatment decision-making in bipolar II disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Fisher, Alana; Manicavasagar, Vijaya; Sharpe, Louise; Laidsaar-Powell, Rebekah; Juraskova, Ilona

2018-02-01

Treatment decision-making in bipolar II disorder (BPII) is challenging, yet the decision support needs of patients and family remain unknown. To explore patient and family perspectives of treatment decision-making in BPII. Semistructured, qualitative interviews were conducted with 28 patients with BPII-diagnosis and 13 family members with experience in treatment decision-making in the outpatient setting. Interviews were audiotaped, transcribed verbatim and analysed thematically using framework methods. Participant demographics, clinical characteristics and preferences for patient decision-making involvement were assessed. Four inter-related themes emerged: (1) Attitudes and response to diagnosis and treatment; (2) Influences on decision-making; (3) The nature and flow of decision-making; (4) Decision support and challenges. Views differed according to patient involvement preferences, time since diagnosis and patients' current mood symptoms. This is the first known study to provide in-depth patient and family insights into the key factors influencing BPII treatment decision-making, and potential improvements and challenges to this process. Findings will inform the development of BPII treatment decision-making resources that better meet the informational and decision-support priorities of end users. This research was partly funded by a Postgraduate Research Grant awarded to the first author by the University of Sydney. No conflicts of interest declared.

Decision-Making Theories and Models: A Discussion of Rational and Psychological Decision-Making Theories and Models: The Search for a Cultural-Ethical Decision-Making Model

OpenAIRE

Oliveira, Arnaldo

2007-01-01

This paper examines rational and psychological decision-making models. Descriptive and normative methodologies such as attribution theory, schema theory, prospect theory, ambiguity model, game theory, and expected utility theory are discussed. The definition of culture is reviewed, and the relationship between culture and decision making is also highlighted as many organizations use a cultural-ethical decision-making model.

Clinical Decision Making and Mental Health Service Use Among Persons With Severe Mental Illness Across Europe.

Science.gov (United States)

Cosh, Suzanne; Zenter, Nadja; Ay, Esra-Sultan; Loos, Sabine; Slade, Mike; De Rosa, Corrado; Luciano, Mario; Berecz, Roland; Glaub, Theodora; Munk-Jørgensen, Povl; Krogsgaard Bording, Malene; Rössler, Wulf; Kawohl, Wolfram; Puschner, Bernd

2017-09-01

The study explored relationships between preferences for and experiences of clinical decision making (CDM) with service use among persons with severe mental illness. Data from a prospective observational study in six European countries were examined. Associations of baseline staff-rated (N=213) and patient-rated (N=588) preferred and experienced decision making with service use were examined at baseline by using binomial regressions and at 12-month follow-up by using multilevel models. A preference by patients and staff for active patient involvement in decision making, rather than shared or passive decision making, was associated with longer hospital admissions and higher costs at baseline and with increases in admissions over 12 months (p=.043). Low patient-rated satisfaction with an experienced clinical decision was also related to increased costs over the study period (p=.005). A preference for shared decision making may reduce health care costs by reducing inpatient admissions. Patient satisfaction with decisions was a predictor of costs, and clinicians should maximize patient satisfaction with CDM.

Decision-making deficits in patients with chronic schizophrenia: Iowa Gambling Task and Prospect Valence Learning model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kim MS

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Myung-Sun Kim,1 Bit-Na Kang,1 Jae Young Lim2 1Department of Psychology, Sungshin Women’s University, Seoul, Republic of Korea; 2Department of Psychiatry, Keyo Medical Foundation, Keyo Hospital, Uiwang, Republic of Korea Purpose: Decision-making is the process of forming preferences for possible options, selecting and executing actions, and evaluating the outcome. This study used the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT and the Prospect Valence Learning (PVL model to investigate deficits in risk-reward related decision-making in patients with chronic schizophrenia, and to identify decision-making processes that contribute to poor IGT performance in these patients. Materials and methods: Thirty-nine patients with schizophrenia and 31 healthy controls participated. Decision-making was measured by total net score, block net scores, and the total number of cards selected from each deck of the IGT. PVL parameters were estimated with the Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling scheme in OpenBugs and BRugs, its interface to R, and the estimated parameters were analyzed with the Mann–Whitney U-test.Results: The schizophrenia group received significantly lower total net scores compared to the control group. In terms of block net scores, an interaction effect of group × block was observed. The block net scores of the schizophrenia group did not differ across the five blocks, whereas those of the control group increased as the blocks progressed. The schizophrenia group obtained significantly lower block net scores in the fourth and fifth blocks of the IGT and selected cards from deck D (advantageous less frequently than the control group. Additionally, the schizophrenia group had significantly lower values on the utility-shape, loss-aversion, recency, and consistency parameters of the PVL model. Conclusion: These results indicate that patients with schizophrenia experience deficits in decision-making, possibly due to failure in learning the expected value of each deck

Tempus fugit : Time pressure in risky decisions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kocher, M.G.; Pahlke, J.; Trautmann, S.T.

2013-01-01

We study the effects of time pressure on risky decisions for pure gain prospects, pure loss prospects, and mixed prospects involving both gains and losses. In two experiments we find that time pressure has no effect on risk attitudes for gains, but increases risk aversion for losses. For mixed

Analyzing Decision Logs to Understand Decision Making in Serious Crime Investigations.

Science.gov (United States)

Dando, Coral J; Ormerod, Thomas C

2017-12-01

Objective To study decision making by detectives when investigating serious crime through the examination of decision logs to explore hypothesis generation and evidence selection. Background Decision logs are used to record and justify decisions made during serious crime investigations. The complexity of investigative decision making is well documented, as are the errors associated with miscarriages of justice and inquests. The use of decision logs has not been the subject of an empirical investigation, yet they offer an important window into the nature of investigative decision making in dynamic, time-critical environments. Method A sample of decision logs from British police forces was analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively to explore hypothesis generation and evidence selection by police detectives. Results Analyses revealed diversity in documentation of decisions that did not correlate with case type and identified significant limitations of the decision log approach to supporting investigative decision making. Differences emerged between experienced and less experienced officers' decision log records in exploration of alternative hypotheses, generation of hypotheses, and sources of evidential inquiry opened over phase of investigation. Conclusion The practical use of decision logs is highly constrained by their format and context of use. Despite this, decision log records suggest that experienced detectives display strategic decision making to avoid confirmation and satisficing, which affect less experienced detectives. Application Potential applications of this research include both training in case documentation and the development of new decision log media that encourage detectives, irrespective of experience, to generate multiple hypotheses and optimize the timely selection of evidence to test them.

Exploration economics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mcgill, R.E.

1992-01-01

This paper deals with determining the economic viability of the play or prospect. At the outset, one point is important. Preexploration economists are important because they enable geologists to see if their assumptions will prove profitable. Their assumptions must consider the full range of possible outcomes, even if only some portion of that range may contain prospects or plays that are estimated to be profitable. Play economics are preferable to prospect economics because, being the sum of several prospects, they give a broader view of the investment opportunity. Finally, remember that play and prospect economics are always slightly optimistic. They seldom include all of the exploration and overhead changes that must ultimately be borne by the successful prospects

An Axiomatization of Cumulative Prospect Theory for Decision under Risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wakker, P.P.; Chateauneuf, A.

1999-01-01

Cumulative prospect theory was introduced by Tversky and Kahneman so as to combine the empirical realism of their original prospect theory with the theoretical advantages of Quiggin's rank-dependent utility. Preference axiomatizations were provided in several papers. All those axiomatizations,

Information processing by networks of quantum decision makers

Science.gov (United States)

Yukalov, V. I.; Yukalova, E. P.; Sornette, D.

2018-02-01

We suggest a model of a multi-agent society of decision makers taking decisions being based on two criteria, one is the utility of the prospects and the other is the attractiveness of the considered prospects. The model is the generalization of quantum decision theory, developed earlier for single decision makers realizing one-step decisions, in two principal aspects. First, several decision makers are considered simultaneously, who interact with each other through information exchange. Second, a multistep procedure is treated, when the agents exchange information many times. Several decision makers exchanging information and forming their judgment, using quantum rules, form a kind of a quantum information network, where collective decisions develop in time as a result of information exchange. In addition to characterizing collective decisions that arise in human societies, such networks can describe dynamical processes occurring in artificial quantum intelligence composed of several parts or in a cluster of quantum computers. The practical usage of the theory is illustrated on the dynamic disjunction effect for which three quantitative predictions are made: (i) the probabilistic behavior of decision makers at the initial stage of the process is described; (ii) the decrease of the difference between the initial prospect probabilities and the related utility factors is proved; (iii) the existence of a common consensus after multiple exchange of information is predicted. The predicted numerical values are in very good agreement with empirical data.

Ambiguity attitudes in decisions for others

NARCIS (Netherlands)

König-Kersting, Christian; Trautmann, Stefan

We probe the pattern of ambiguity aversion for moderate-likelihood gain prospects, and ambiguity seeking for low-likelihood gain prospects, if people make decisions not for themselves but as agents for others. We confirm the pattern both with and without accountability.

Uranium exploration: new thinking, new theories and new technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dai Jiemin

2000-01-01

Uranium prospecting and exploration in China have almost past a course of a half century. At the boundary of two centuries, what is the trend of uranium prospecting and exploration? The coming uranium prospecting and exploration will be dependent on the enlightenment of new thinking, the guidance of new theories and the support of new technologies and methods. In a word, the authors must set up a creation system for uranium prospecting and exploration. The above-mentioned ideas are discussed

Full‐factorial design space exploration approach for multi‐criteria decision making of the design of industrial halls

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lee, B. (Bruno); Pourmousavian, N. (Navid); Hensen, J.L.M.

2016-01-01

Industrial halls pose high energy saving potential that is not yet explored under current design practice. Common design approaches such as parametric study or optimization are largely constrained by the assumptions and do not promote flexibility in the decision making process. Based on the unique

Exploring an informed decision-making framework using in-home sensors: older adults’ perceptions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jane Chung

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Background Sensor technologies are designed to assist independent living of older adults. However, it is often difficult for older adults to make an informed decision about adopting sensor technologies.Objective To explore Bruce’s framework of informed decision making (IDM for in-home use of sensor technologies in community-dwelling elders.Method The IDM framework guided development of a semi-structured interview. A theory-driven coding approach was used for analysis.Results Participants supported most of the elements of the framework, but not all aspects of each element were addressed. Perceived usefulness of technologies was identified as an area for framework extension.Conclusion This paper provides useful information for health care professionals to consider how to enhance IDM of older adults regarding the use of sensor technologies. The results also illuminate elements of the IDM framework that may be critical to facilitating independent living for older adults.

Exploration the conception of prospective students teacher about limit of function

Science.gov (United States)

Usman, Juniati, Dwi; Siswono, Tatag Yuli Eko

2017-08-01

The purpose of this research is to explore the conception of prospective students teacher that highly skilled on mathematical ability about limit function, especially in the aspects of understanding, representation, mental image and proposition. This study was conducted by a qualitative exploratory method. The subject was one of the students in the mathematics education of Syiahkuala University which being chosen according to the expected criteria.. The research instrument was divided into main and supporting instrument. The data was analyzed by reducing, presenting, interpreting and concluding. The analyzing data results obtained the subject's conception about limit function were elaborated the meaning of limit function with representation verbal, graphic, symbol, and logical explanation, expressing the limit function definition with verbal representation, graphic, table and symbol. The subject defined the correlation of limit function by imaging, revealing, and using one-sided the limit of function. They expanded the propositions by symbols, explained logically, and proved using a formal definition.

Prospect Theory and Interval-Valued Hesitant Set for Safety Evacuation Model

Science.gov (United States)

Kou, Meng; Lu, Na

2018-01-01

The study applies the research results of prospect theory and multi attribute decision making theory, combined with the complexity, uncertainty and multifactor influence of the underground mine fire system and takes the decision makers’ psychological behavior of emotion and intuition into full account to establish the intuitionistic fuzzy multiple attribute decision making method that is based on the prospect theory. The model established by this method can explain the decision maker’s safety evacuation decision behavior in the complex system of underground mine fire due to the uncertainty of the environment, imperfection of the information and human psychological behavior and other factors.

Prospecting for coal in China with remote sensing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ke-long Tan; Yu-qing Wan; Sun-xin Sun; Gui-bao Bao; Jing-shui Kuang [Aerophotogrammetry and Remote Sensing Center of China Coal, Xi' an (China)

2008-12-15

In China it is important to explore coal prospecting by taking advantage of modern remote sensing and geographic information system technologies. Given a theoretical basis for coal prospecting by remote sensing, the methodologies and existing problems are demonstrated systematically by summarizing past practices of coal prospecting with remote sensing. A new theory of coal prospecting with remote sensing is proposed. In uncovered areas, coal resources can be prospected by direct interpretation. In coal bearing strata of developed areas covered by thin Quaternary strata or vegetation, prospecting for coal can be carried out by indirect interpretation of geomorphology and vegetation. For deeply buried underground deposits, coal prospecting can rely on tectonic structures, interpretation and analysis of new tectonic clues and regularity of coal formation and preservation controlled by tectonic structures. By applying newly hyper-spectral, multi-polarization, multi-angle, multi-temporal and multi-resolution remote sensing data and carrying out integrated analysis of geographic attributes, ground attributes, geophysical exploration results, geochemical exploration results, geological drilling results and remote sensing data by GIS tools, coal geology resources and mineralogical regularities can be explored and coal resource information can be acquired with some confidence. 12 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs.

The application of isotopic dating methods for prospection and exploration of nuclear raw material

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Komlev, L.V.; Anderson, E.B.

1977-01-01

Among the geological and geochemical methods for prospecting and searching the nuclear raw material, the isotope-dating methods determine the most important search criterion - the time of the ore-forming. The elaboration and use of these methods in uranium-ore regions reveal a series of geochemical epochs of uranium and thorium accumulation connected naturally with the history of geological evolution of the earth crust. The isotope-dating methods enable with confidence to establish the stages of tectono-magmatic activity resulting in the redistribution and the local concentration of uranium. The wide use of isotopic methods is a necessary condition for reasonable trends of the modern geological exploration [ru

Exploring Science Through Polar Exploration

Science.gov (United States)

Pfirman, S. L.; Bell, R. E.; Zadoff, L.; Kelsey, R.

2003-12-01

Exploring the Poles is a First Year Seminar course taught at Barnard College, Columbia University. First Year Seminars are required of incoming students and are designed to encourage critical analysis in a small class setting with focused discussion. The class links historical polar exploration with current research in order to: introduce non-scientists to the value of environmental science through polar literature; discuss issues related to venturing into the unknown that are of relevance to any discipline: self-reliance, leadership, preparation, decisions under uncertainty; show students the human face of science; change attitudes about science and scientists; use data to engage students in exploring/understanding the environment and help them learn to draw conclusions from data; integrate research and education. These goals are met by bringing analysis of early exploration efforts together with a modern understanding of the polar environment. To date to class has followed the efforts of Nansen in the Fram, Scott and Amundsen in their race to the pole, and Shackleton's Endurance. As students read turn-of-the-century expedition journals, expedition progress is progressively revealed on an interactive map showing the environmental context. To bring the exploration process to life, students are assigned to expedition teams for specific years and the fates of the student "expeditions" are based on their own decisions. For example, in the Arctic, they navigate coastal sea ice and become frozen into the ice north of Siberia, re-creating Nansen's polar drift. Fates of the teams varied tremendously: some safely emerged at Fram Strait in 4 years, while others nearly became hopelessly lost in the Beaufort Gyre. Students thus learn about variability in the current polar environment through first hand experience, enabling them to appreciate the experiences, decisions, and, in some cases, the luck, of polar explorers. Evaluation by the Columbia Center for New Media, Teaching

Decision Trajectories in Dementia Care Networks: Decisions and Related Key Events.

Science.gov (United States)

Groen-van de Ven, Leontine; Smits, Carolien; Oldewarris, Karen; Span, Marijke; Jukema, Jan; Eefsting, Jan; Vernooij-Dassen, Myrra

2017-10-01

This prospective multiperspective study provides insight into the decision trajectories of people with dementia by studying the decisions made and related key events. This study includes three waves of interviews, conducted between July 2010 and July 2012, with 113 purposefully selected respondents (people with beginning to advanced stages of dementia and their informal and professional caregivers) completed in 12 months (285 interviews). Our multilayered qualitative analysis consists of content analysis, timeline methods, and constant comparison. Four decision themes emerged-managing daily life, arranging support, community living, and preparing for the future. Eight key events delineate the decision trajectories of people with dementia. Decisions and key events differ between people with dementia living alone and living with a caregiver. Our study clarifies that decisions relate not only to the disease but to living with the dementia. Individual differences in decision content and sequence may effect shared decision-making and advance care planning.

Exploring the reference point in prospect theory: gambles for length of life.

Science.gov (United States)

van Osch, Sylvie M C; van den Hout, Wilbert B; Stiggelbout, Anne M

2006-01-01

Attitude toward risk is an important factor determining patient preferences. Risk behavior has been shown to be strongly dependent on the perception of the outcome as either a gain or a loss. According to prospect theory, the reference point determines how an outcome is perceived. However, no theory on the location of the reference point exists, and for the health domain, there is no direct evidence for the location of the reference point. This article combines qualitative with quantitative data to provide evidence of the reference point in life-year certainty equivalent (CE) gambles and to explore the psychology behind the reference point. The authors argue that goals (aspirations) in life influence the reference point. While thinking aloud, 45 healthy respondents gave certainty equivalents for life-year CE gambles with long and short durations of survival. Contrary to suggestions from the literature, qualitative data argued that the offered certainty equivalent most frequently served as the reference point. Thus, respondents perceived life-year CE gambles as mixed. Framing of the question and goals set in life appeared to be important factors behind the psychology of the reference point. On the basis of the authors' quantitative and qualitative data, they argue that goals alter the perception of outcomes as described by prospect theory by influencing the reference point. This relationship is more apparent for the near future as opposed to the remote future, as goals are mostly set for the near future.

Processing Information in Quantum Decision Theory

OpenAIRE

Yukalov, V. I.; Sornette, D.

2008-01-01

A survey is given summarizing the state of the art of describing information processing in Quantum Decision Theory, which has been recently advanced as a novel variant of decision making, based on the mathematical theory of separable Hilbert spaces. This mathematical structure captures the effect of superposition of composite prospects, including many incorporated intended actions. The theory characterizes entangled decision making, non-commutativity of subsequent decisions, and intention int...

Managing the exploration process: conference papers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1999-01-01

The conference includes eight articles on the theme of the meeting including: I - creating an environment that fosters exploration and development ideas; II - integrating a global perspective when setting objectives for exploration planning; III - practical issues is setting exploration objectives; IV - portfolio analysis of exploration prospect of ideas; V - the effective presentation of exploration prospects; V I - the future of information management; VII - assessing exploration assets; and V III - environmental and regulatory considerations when planning an exploratory well. Individual articles indexed/abstracted separately include: articles I, II, III, VII, and V III

Prospective memory: effects of divided attention on spontaneous retrieval.

Science.gov (United States)

Harrison, Tyler L; Mullet, Hillary G; Whiffen, Katie N; Ousterhout, Hunter; Einstein, Gilles O

2014-02-01

We examined the effects of divided attention on the spontaneous retrieval of a prospective memory intention. Participants performed an ongoing lexical decision task with an embedded prospective memory demand, and also performed a divided-attention task during some segments of lexical decision trials. In all experiments, monitoring was highly discouraged, and we observed no evidence that participants engaged monitoring processes. In Experiment 1, performing a moderately demanding divided-attention task (a digit detection task) did not affect prospective memory performance. In Experiment 2, performing a more challenging divided-attention task (random number generation) impaired prospective memory. Experiment 3 showed that this impairment was eliminated when the prospective memory cue was perceptually salient. Taken together, the results indicate that spontaneous retrieval is not automatic and that challenging divided-attention tasks interfere with spontaneous retrieval and not with the execution of a retrieved intention.

Multiattribute Risky Choice Behavior: The Editing of Complex Prospects

OpenAIRE

John W. Payne; Dan J. Laughhunn; Roy Crum

1984-01-01

This investigation draws upon concepts from prospect theory (Kahneman and Tversky [Kahneman, D., A. Tversky. 1979. Prospect theory: an analysis of decisions under risk. Econometrica 47 263--291.]) and multiattribute utility theory (Keeney and Raiffa [Keeney, R. L., H. Raiffa. 1976. Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs. Wiley, New York.]) in an examination of the multiattribute risky choice behavior of 128 managers. The questions of how managers edit multiattribu...

Economics of petroleum exploration offshore Australia and Southeast Asia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Allinson, G.; Elliston, M.

1994-01-01

The aim of this paper is to assess the economic attractiveness of exploring for crude oil offshore the North West Shelf of Australia by comparison with selected areas offshore Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines. In order to do this, the technical, quantifiable factors which affect offshore petroleum exploration acreage acquisition decisions at the country level are examined. These factors are historical prospectivity, costs of field development and fiscal regime. Other factors such as political, macro-economic and business risks are not considered. The paper concludes that there are significant differences between the countries as indicated by these measures. Past exploration in the Barrow/Dampier area of the North West Shelf of Australia has shown high levels of success by comparison with the other countries. It is estimated that this relatively high success rate coupled with comparatively low costs of field development and lenient fiscal regimes makes the economics of exploration on the North West Shelf favourable by comparison with those selected areas in the other countries considered. 5 tabs., 4 figs

Seeing the forests and the trees--innovative approaches to exploring heterogeneity in systematic reviews of complex interventions to enhance health system decision-making: a protocol.

Science.gov (United States)

Ivers, Noah; Tricco, Andrea C; Trikalinos, Thomas A; Dahabreh, Issa J; Danko, Kristin J; Moher, David; Straus, Sharon E; Lavis, John N; Yu, Catherine H; Shojania, Kaveh; Manns, Braden; Tonelli, Marcello; Ramsay, Timothy; Edwards, Alun; Sargious, Peter; Paprica, Alison; Hillmer, Michael; Grimshaw, Jeremy M

2014-08-12

To improve quality of care and patient outcomes, health system decision-makers need to identify and implement effective interventions. An increasing number of systematic reviews document the effects of quality improvement programs to assist decision-makers in developing new initiatives. However, limitations in the reporting of primary studies and current meta-analysis methods (including approaches for exploring heterogeneity) reduce the utility of existing syntheses for health system decision-makers. This study will explore the role of innovative meta-analysis approaches and the added value of enriched and updated data for increasing the utility of systematic reviews of complex interventions. We will use the dataset from our recent systematic review of 142 randomized trials of diabetes quality improvement programs to evaluate novel approaches for exploring heterogeneity. These will include exploratory methods, such as multivariate meta-regression analyses and all-subsets combinatorial meta-analysis. We will then update our systematic review to include new trials and enrich the dataset by surveying authors of all included trials. In doing so, we will explore the impact of variables not, reported in previous publications, such as details of study context, on the effectiveness of the intervention. We will use innovative analytical methods on the enriched and updated dataset to identify key success factors in the implementation of quality improvement interventions for diabetes. Decision-makers will be involved throughout to help identify and prioritize variables to be explored and to aid in the interpretation and dissemination of results. This study will inform future systematic reviews of complex interventions and describe the value of enriching and updating data for exploring heterogeneity in meta-analysis. It will also result in an updated comprehensive systematic review of diabetes quality improvement interventions that will be useful to health system decision

Climate change decision-making: Model & parameter uncertainties explored

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dowlatabadi, H.; Kandlikar, M.; Linville, C.

1995-12-31

A critical aspect of climate change decision-making is uncertainties in current understanding of the socioeconomic, climatic and biogeochemical processes involved. Decision-making processes are much better informed if these uncertainties are characterized and their implications understood. Quantitative analysis of these uncertainties serve to inform decision makers about the likely outcome of policy initiatives, and help set priorities for research so that outcome ambiguities faced by the decision-makers are reduced. A family of integrated assessment models of climate change have been developed at Carnegie Mellon. These models are distinguished from other integrated assessment efforts in that they were designed from the outset to characterize and propagate parameter, model, value, and decision-rule uncertainties. The most recent of these models is ICAM 2.1. This model includes representation of the processes of demographics, economic activity, emissions, atmospheric chemistry, climate and sea level change and impacts from these changes and policies for emissions mitigation, and adaptation to change. The model has over 800 objects of which about one half are used to represent uncertainty. In this paper we show, that when considering parameter uncertainties, the relative contribution of climatic uncertainties are most important, followed by uncertainties in damage calculations, economic uncertainties and direct aerosol forcing uncertainties. When considering model structure uncertainties we find that the choice of policy is often dominated by model structure choice, rather than parameter uncertainties.

Quantum decision theory as quantum theory of measurement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yukalov, V.I.; Sornette, D.

2008-01-01

We present a general theory of quantum information processing devices, that can be applied to human decision makers, to atomic multimode registers, or to molecular high-spin registers. Our quantum decision theory is a generalization of the quantum theory of measurement, endowed with an action ring, a prospect lattice and a probability operator measure. The algebra of probability operators plays the role of the algebra of local observables. Because of the composite nature of prospects and of the entangling properties of the probability operators, quantum interference terms appear, which make actions noncommutative and the prospect probabilities nonadditive. The theory provides the basis for explaining a variety of paradoxes typical of the application of classical utility theory to real human decision making. The principal advantage of our approach is that it is formulated as a self-consistent mathematical theory, which allows us to explain not just one effect but actually all known paradoxes in human decision making. Being general, the approach can serve as a tool for characterizing quantum information processing by means of atomic, molecular, and condensed-matter systems

The boundaries of instance-based learning theory for explaining decisions from experience.

Science.gov (United States)

Gonzalez, Cleotilde

2013-01-01

Most demonstrations of how people make decisions in risky situations rely on decisions from description, where outcomes and their probabilities are explicitly stated. But recently, more attention has been given to decisions from experience where people discover these outcomes and probabilities through exploration. More importantly, risky behavior depends on how decisions are made (from description or experience), and although prospect theory explains decisions from description, a comprehensive model of decisions from experience is yet to be found. Instance-based learning theory (IBLT) explains how decisions are made from experience through interactions with dynamic environments (Gonzalez et al., 2003). The theory has shown robust explanations of behavior across multiple tasks and contexts, but it is becoming unclear what the theory is able to explain and what it does not. The goal of this chapter is to start addressing this problem. I will introduce IBLT and a recent cognitive model based on this theory: the IBL model of repeated binary choice; then I will discuss the phenomena that the IBL model explains and those that the model does not. The argument is for the theory's robustness but also for clarity in terms of concrete effects that the theory can or cannot account for. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Exploring Factors Affecting Emergency Medical Services Staffs' Decision about Transporting Medical Patients to Medical Facilities

OpenAIRE

Ebrahimian, Abbasali; Seyedin, Hesam; Jamshidi-Orak, Roohangiz; Masoumi, Gholamreza

2014-01-01

Transfer of patients in medical emergency situations is one of the most important missions of emergency medical service (EMS) staffs. So this study was performed to explore affecting factors in EMS staffs’ decision during transporting of patients in medical situations to medical facilities. The participants in this qualitative study consisted of 18 EMS staffs working in prehospital care facilities in Tehran, Iran. Data were gathered through semistructured interviews. The data were analyzed u...

Exploring predictors of scientific performance with decision tree analysis: The case of research excellence in early career mathematics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lindahl, J.

2016-07-01

The purpose of this study was (1) to introduce the exploratory method of decision tree analysis as a complementary alternative to current confirmatory methods used in scientometric prediction studies of research performance; and (2) as an illustrative case, to explore predictors of future research excellence at the individual level among 493 early career mathematicians in the sub-field of number theory between 1999 and 2010. A conceptual introduction to decision tree analysis is provided including an overview of the main steps of the tree-building algorithm and the statistical method of cross-validation used to evaluate the performance of decision tree models. A decision tree analysis of 493 mathematicians was conducted to find useful predictors and important relationships between variables in the context of predicting research excellence. The results suggest that the number of prestige journal publications and a topically diverse output are important predictors of future research excellence. Researchers with no prestige journal publications are very unlikely to produce excellent research. Limitations of decision three analysis are discussed. (Author)

Exploring Methods to Investigate Sentencing Decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Merrall, Elizabeth L. C.; Dhami, Mandeep K.; Bird, Sheila M.

2010-01-01

The determinants of sentencing are of much interest in criminal justice and legal research. Understanding the determinants of sentencing decisions is important for ensuring transparent, consistent, and justifiable sentencing practice that adheres to the goals of sentencing, such as the punishment, rehabilitation, deterrence, and incapacitation of…

Exploration of the impact of a voice activated decision support system (VADSS) with video on resuscitation performance by lay rescuers during simulated cardiopulmonary arrest.

Science.gov (United States)

Hunt, Elizabeth A; Heine, Margaret; Shilkofski, Nicole S; Bradshaw, Jamie Haggerty; Nelson-McMillan, Kristen; Duval-Arnould, Jordan; Elfenbein, Ron

2015-03-01

To assess whether access to a voice activated decision support system (VADSS) containing video clips demonstrating resuscitation manoeuvres was associated with increased compliance with American Heart Association Basic Life Support (AHA BLS) guidelines. This was a prospective, randomised controlled trial. Subjects with no recent clinical experience were randomised to the VADSS or control group and participated in a 5-min simulated out-of-hospital cardiopulmonary arrest with another 'bystander'. Data on performance for predefined outcome measures based on the AHA BLS guidelines were abstracted from videos and the simulator log. 31 subjects were enrolled (VADSS 16 vs control 15), with no significant differences in baseline characteristics. Study subjects in the VADSS were more likely to direct the bystander to: (1) perform compressions to ventilations at the correct ratio of 30:2 (VADSS 15/16 (94%) vs control 4/15 (27%), p=compressor versus ventilator roles after 2 min (VADSS 12/16 (75%) vs control 2/15 (13%), p=0.001). The VADSS group took longer to initiate chest compressions than the control group: VADSS 159.5 (±53) s versus control 78.2 (±20) s, pcontrol 75.4 (±8.0), p=0.35. The use of an audio and video assisted decision support system during a simulated out-of-hospital cardiopulmonary arrest prompted lay rescuers to follow cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) guidelines but was also associated with an unacceptable delay to starting chest compressions. Future studies should explore: (1) if video is synergistic to audio prompts, (2) how mobile technologies may be leveraged to spread CPR decision support and (3) usability testing to avoid unintended consequences. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Prospective Study of Surgical Decision-making Processes for Contralateral Prophylactic Mastectomy in Women With Breast Cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Parker, Patricia A; Peterson, Susan K; Bedrosian, Isabelle; Crosby, Melissa A; Shen, Yu; Black, Dalliah M; Babiera, Gildy; Kuerer, Henry M; Ying, Jun; Dong, Wenli; Cantor, Scott B; Brewster, Abenaa M

2016-01-01

We prospectively examined the psychosocial predictors and the decision-making process regarding contralateral prophylactic mastectomy (CPM) among women with sporadic breast cancer. Increasing numbers of women with breast cancer are seeking CPM. Data are limited about the surgical decision-making process and the psychosocial factors that influence interest in CPM. Women with early-stage unilateral breast cancer (n = 117) were recruited before their first surgical visit at MD Anderson and completed questionnaires assessing knowledge of and interest in CPM and associated psychosocial factors. After the appointment, women and their surgeons completed questions about the extent that various surgical options (including CPM) were discussed; also, the women rated their perceived likelihood of having CPM and the surgeons rated the appropriateness of CPM. Before their first visit, 50% of women were moderately to extremely interested in CPM and 12 (10%) of women had CPM at the time of their primary breast cancer surgery. Less knowledge about breast cancer (P = 0.02) and greater cancer worry (P = 0.03) predicted interest in CPM. Greater cancer worry predicted who had CPM (P = 0.02). Interest in CPM before surgical visit and the likelihood of having CPM after the visit differed (P ≤ 0.001). Surgeons' rating of the appropriateness of CPM and the patient's reported likelihood of having CPM were not significantly different (P = 0.49). Interest in CPM is common among women with sporadic breast cancer. The informational and emotional aspects of CPM may affect the decision to have CPM and should be addressed when discussing surgical options.

Implementing Treat-to-Target Practices for Chronic Pain Through Shared Decision Making: Requisites, Prospects, and Challenges.

Science.gov (United States)

Falzer, Paul R

2017-02-01

Treat-to-target (T2T) includes a target or goal, standard symptom assessment, and a treatment decision. In specialties that threat chronic pain, T2T is expected to be implemented collaboratively. The ability of patients to participate fully has been questioned, but these concerns have not been demonstrated empirically. The current study examined how patient self-assessed symptom measures and illness beliefs affect their willingness to change their current treatment. A total of 157 patients with rheumatoid arthritis completed a standard "disease activity" (DA) battery consisting of current joint pain, recent pain, daily functioning, and generality disability assessments, along with an illness belief questionnaire and a willingness to change measure. Data were collected at 2-month intervals over a 6-month period. Single and multiple influences on willingness to change were examined using linear mixed models. Willingness is strongly and directly associated with DA scores. Beliefs that were significant as single factors became nonsignificant once DA scores were introduced. The findings established a strong and consistent link between DA scores and willingness, and ruled out the prospect that illness beliefs mediate or moderate this relationship. It was also found that willingness to change is directly related to the number of significant self-reported symptoms. Concerns about the ability of patients to participate in a collaborative implementation of T2T were not substantiated. Future studies can examine the subtle interplay of goals, assessments, and treatment decisions and clarify outstanding issues about the practice of clinical decision making. © 2016 World Institute of Pain.

Framing effects and risk-sensitive decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Mishra, Sandeep; Gregson, Margaux; Lalumière, Martin L

2012-02-01

Prospect theory suggests that people are risk-averse when facing gains, but risk-prone when facing losses, a pattern known as the framing effect. Although framing effects have been widely demonstrated, few studies have investigated framing effects under conditions of need. Risk-sensitivity theory predicts that decision makers should prefer high-risk options in situations of high need, when lower risk options are unlikely to meet those needs. In two experiments, we examined (1) whether framing effects occurred in behavioural tasks involving risky decision making from description and decision making from experience, (2) whether participants' risky decision making conformed to the predictions of risk-sensitivity theory, and (3) whether decision framing interacted with conditions of need to influence decision making under risk. The results suggest that under all circumstances, risky decision making conformed to the predictions of risk-sensitivity theory. Framing effects were at least partially demonstrable under all experimental conditions. Finally, negative frames interacted with situations of high need to produce particularly elevated levels of risky choice. Together, the results suggest that risk-sensitivity theory can augment prospect theory to explain choice under conditions of need. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

Exploring the decision-making process in the delivery of physiotherapy in a stroke unit.

Science.gov (United States)

McGlinchey, Mark P; Davenport, Sally

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to explore the decision-making process in the delivery of physiotherapy in a stroke unit. A focused ethnographical approach involving semi-structured interviews and observations of clinical practice was used. A purposive sample of seven neurophysiotherapists and four patients participated in semi-structured interviews. From this group, three neurophysiotherapists and four patients were involved in observation of practice. Data from interviews and observations were analysed to generate themes. Three themes were identified: planning the ideal physiotherapy delivery, the reality of physiotherapy delivery and involvement in the decision-making process. Physiotherapists used a variety of clinical reasoning strategies and considered many factors to influence their decision-making in the planning and delivery of physiotherapy post-stroke. These factors included the therapist's clinical experience, patient's presentation and response to therapy, prioritisation, organisational constraints and compliance with organisational practice. All physiotherapists highlighted the importance to involve patients in planning and delivering their physiotherapy. However, there were varying levels of patient involvement observed in this process. The study has generated insight into the reality of decision-making in the planning and delivery of physiotherapy post-stroke. Further research involving other stroke units is required to gain a greater understanding of this aspect of physiotherapy. Implications for Rehabilitation Physiotherapists need to consider multiple patient, therapist and organisational factors when planning and delivering physiotherapy in a stroke unit. Physiotherapists should continually reflect upon how they provide physiotherapy, with respect to the duration, frequency and time of day sessions are delivered, in order to guide current and future physiotherapy delivery. As patients may demonstrate varying levels of participation in deciding and

Prospect theory in the valuation of health.

Science.gov (United States)

Moffett, Maurice L; Suarez-Almazor, Maria E

2005-08-01

Prospect theory is the prominent nonexpected utility theory in the estimation of health state preference scores for quality-adjusted life year calculation. Until recently, the theory was not considered to be developed to the point of implementation in economic analysis. This review focuses on the research and evidence that tests the implementation of prospect theory into health state valuation. The typical application of expected utility theory assumes that a decision maker has stable preferences under conditions of risk and uncertainty. Under prospect theory, preferences are dependent on whether the decision maker regards the outcome of a choice as a gain or loss, relative to a reference point. The conceptual preference for standard gamble utilities in the valuation of health states has led to the development of elicitation techniques. Empirical evidence using these techniques indicates that when individual preferences are elicited, a prospect theory consistent framework appears to be necessary for adequate representation of individual health utilities. The relevance of prospect theory to policy making and resource allocation remains to be established. Societal preferences may not need the same attitudes towards risks as individual preferences, and may remain largely risk neutral.

Statistical models for optimizing mineral exploration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wignall, T.K.; DeGeoffroy, J.

1987-01-01

The primary purpose of mineral exploration is to discover ore deposits. The emphasis of this volume is on the mathematical and computational aspects of optimizing mineral exploration. The seven chapters that make up the main body of the book are devoted to the description and application of various types of computerized geomathematical models. These chapters include: (1) the optimal selection of ore deposit types and regions of search, as well as prospecting selected areas, (2) designing airborne and ground field programs for the optimal coverage of prospecting areas, and (3) delineating and evaluating exploration targets within prospecting areas by means of statistical modeling. Many of these statistical programs are innovative and are designed to be useful for mineral exploration modeling. Examples of geomathematical models are applied to exploring for six main types of base and precious metal deposits, as well as other mineral resources (such as bauxite and uranium)

The process of processing: exploring the validity of Neisser's perceptual cycle model with accounts from critical decision-making in the cockpit.

Science.gov (United States)

Plant, Katherine L; Stanton, Neville A

2015-01-01

The perceptual cycle model (PCM) has been widely applied in ergonomics research in domains including road, rail and aviation. The PCM assumes that information processing occurs in a cyclical manner drawing on top-down and bottom-up influences to produce perceptual exploration and actions. However, the validity of the model has not been addressed. This paper explores the construct validity of the PCM in the context of aeronautical decision-making. The critical decision method was used to interview 20 helicopter pilots about critical decision-making. The data were qualitatively analysed using an established coding scheme, and composite PCMs for incident phases were constructed. It was found that the PCM provided a mutually exclusive and exhaustive classification of the information-processing cycles for dealing with critical incidents. However, a counter-cycle was also discovered which has been attributed to skill-based behaviour, characteristic of experts. The practical applications and future research questions are discussed. Practitioner Summary: This paper explores whether information processing, when dealing with critical incidents, occurs in the manner anticipated by the perceptual cycle model. In addition to the traditional processing cycle, a reciprocal counter-cycle was found. This research can be utilised by those who use the model as an accident analysis framework.

Do politicians take risks like the rest of us? An experimental test of prospect theory under MPs

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Linde, J.; Vis, B.

Political psychologists have been quick to use prospect theory in their work, realizing its potential for explaining decisions under risk. Applying prospect theory to political decision-making is not without problems, though, and here we address two of these: (1) Does prospect theory actually apply

Do Politicians Take Risks Like the Rest of Us? An Experimental Test of Prospect Theory Under MPs

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Linde, Jona; Vis, Barbara

Political psychologists have been quick to use prospect theory in their work, realizing its potential for explaining decisions under risk. Applying prospect theory to political decision-making is not without problems, though, and here we address two of these: (1) Does prospect theory actually apply

an analysis of perceived prominent decision making areas in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

p2333147

Keywords: Game ranch management, decision making, risk perception, springbuck. ABSTRACT ..... environment, herd management (herd structure) and marketing and client satisfaction .... Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk.

The Future of Computerized Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

2014-12-01

professionals will be becoming more adept at scripting, modeling, graphical and statistical displays. Decision makers may, similarly, be less likely to shy...elsewhere in this proceedings (Sanchez 2014) simulation can be the core for model-driven big data and inferential decision-making. We need to stake... descriptive , not prescriptive.” In our field, we deal with prospective decision making. We have an advantage in this area: since our output data are

Risk behavior in petroleum exploration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rose, P.R.

1992-01-01

In this paper, the author uses the term risk aversion, which weighs the magnitude of investment against four factors: size of available budget, potential gain, potential loss, and probabilities of each outcome. Modern petroleum exploration consists of a series of investment decisions on whether to acquire additional technical data (geological, geophysical, engineering, drilling, or economic) and/or additional mineral interests. Each decision should allow a progressively clearer perception of project risk versus reward and should support timely management action concerning the inferred accumulation. Companies searching for oil and natural gas make hundreds of such exploration decisions each year. So the problem in serial exploration decision making is twofold: to be consistent in the way we deal with risk and uncertainty and to perceive risk and uncertainty accurately and reduce them where possible. Risk aversion is not just a hypothetical nuisance. It causes explorationists to make inconsistent investment decisions, and it costs exploration companies millions of dollars annually in lost opportunities, bad choices, and wasted investment dollars

Are patient decision aids the best way to improve clinical decision making? Report of the IPDAS Symposium.

Science.gov (United States)

Holmes-Rovner, Margaret; Nelson, Wendy L; Pignone, Michael; Elwyn, Glyn; Rovner, David R; O'Connor, Annette M; Coulter, Angela; Correa-de-Araujo, Rosaly

2007-01-01

This article reports on the International Patient Decision Aid Standards Symposium held in 2006 at the annual meeting of the Society for Medical Decision Making in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The symposium featured a debate regarding the proposition that "decision aids are the best way to improve clinical decision making.'' The formal debate addressed the theoretical problem of the appropriate gold standard for an improved decision, efficacy of decision aids, and prospects for implementation. Audience comments and questions focused on both theory and practice: the often unacknowledged roots of decision aids in expected utility theory and the practical problems of limited patient decision aid implementation in health care. The participants' vote on the proposition was approximately half for and half against.

A catastrophe model for the prospect-utility theory question.

Science.gov (United States)

Oliva, Terence A; McDade, Sean R

2008-07-01

Anomalies have played a big part in the analysis of decision making under risk. Both expected utility and prospect theories were born out of anomalies exhibited by actual decision making behavior. Since the same individual can use both expected utility and prospect approaches at different times, it seems there should be a means of uniting the two. This paper turns to nonlinear dynamical systems (NDS), specifically a catastrophe model, to help suggest an 'out of the box' line of solution toward integration. We use a cusp model to create a value surface whose control dimensions are involvement and gains versus losses. By including 'involvement' as a variable the importance of the individual's psychological state is included, and it provides a rationale for how decision makers' changes from expected utility to prospect might occur. Additionally, it provides a possible explanation for what appears to be even more irrational decisions that individuals make when highly emotionally involved. We estimate the catastrophe model using a sample of 997 gamblers who attended a casino and compare it to the linear model using regression. Hence, we have actual data from individuals making real bets, under real conditions.

Inconclusive quantum measurements and decisions under uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Yukalov, Vyacheslav; Sornette, Didier

2016-04-01

We give a mathematical definition for the notion of inconclusive quantum measurements. In physics, such measurements occur at intermediate stages of a complex measurement procedure, with the final measurement result being operationally testable. Since the mathematical structure of Quantum Decision Theory has been developed in analogy with the theory of quantum measurements, the inconclusive quantum measurements correspond, in Quantum Decision Theory, to intermediate stages of decision making in the process of taking decisions under uncertainty. The general form of the quantum probability for a composite event is the sum of a utility factor, describing a rational evaluation of the considered prospect, and of an attraction factor, characterizing irrational, subconscious attitudes of the decision maker. Despite the involved irrationality, the probability of prospects can be evaluated. This is equivalent to the possibility of calculating quantum probabilities without specifying hidden variables. We formulate a general way of evaluation, based on the use of non-informative priors. As an example, we suggest the explanation of the decoy effect. Our quantitative predictions are in very good agreement with experimental data.

Inconclusive quantum measurements and decisions under uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vyacheslav I. Yukalov

2016-04-01

Full Text Available We give a mathematical definition for the notion of inconclusive quantum measurements.In physics, such measurements occur at intermediate stages of a complex measurement procedure, with the final measurement result being operationally testable. Since the mathematical structure of Quantum Decision Theory has been developed in analogy withthe theory of quantum measurements, the inconclusive quantum measurements correspond,in Quantum Decision Theory, to intermediate stages of decision making in the process of taking decisions under uncertainty. The general form of the quantum probability for a composite event is the sum of a utility factor, describing a rational evaluationof the considered prospect, and of an attraction factor, characterizing irrational,subconscious attitudes of the decision maker. Despite the involved irrationality, the probability of prospects can be evaluated. This is equivalent to the possibility of calculating quantum probabilities without specifying hidden variables. We formulate a general way of evaluation, based on the use of non-informative priors. As an example,we suggest the explanation of the decoy effect. Our quantitative predictions are in very good agreement with experimental data.

Abortion Decision and Ambivalence: Insights via an Abortion Decision Balance Sheet

Science.gov (United States)

Allanson, Susie

2007-01-01

Decision ambivalence is a key concept in abortion literature, but has been poorly operationalised. This study explored the concept of decision ambivalence via an Abortion Decision Balance Sheet (ADBS) articulating reasons both for and against terminating an unintended pregnancy. Ninety-six women undergoing an early abortion for psychosocial…

Exploring a Laboratory Model of Pharmacogenetics as Applied to Clinical Decision Making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David F. Kisor

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Objective: To evaluate a pilot of a laboratory model for relating pharmacogenetics to clinical decision making. Case Study: This pilot was undertaken and evaluated to help determine if a pharmacogenetics laboratory should be included in the core Doctor of Pharmacy curriculum. The placement of the laboratory exercise in the curriculum was determined by identifying the point in the curriculum where the students had been introduced to the chemistry of deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA as well as instructed on the chemistry of genetic variation. The laboratory included cytochrome P450 2C19 genotyping relative to the *2 variant. Twenty-four students served as the pilot group. Students provided buccal swabs as the source of DNA. Students stabilized the samples and were then provided instructions related to sample preparation, polymerase chain reaction, and gel electrophoresis. The results were reported as images of gels. Students used a reference gel image to compare their results to. Students then applied a dosing algorithm to make a "clinical decision" relative to clopidogrel use. Students were offered a post laboratory survey regarding attitudes toward the laboratory. Twenty-four students completed the laboratory with genotyping results being provided for 22 students (91.7%. Sixteen students were wild-type (*1/*1, while six students were heterozygous (*1/*2. Twenty-three students (96% completed the post laboratory survey. All 23 agreed (6, 26.1% or strongly agreed (17, 73.9% that the laboratory "had relevance and value in the pharmacy curriculum" Conclusion: The post pilot study survey exploring a laboratory model for pharmacogenetics related to clinical decision making indicated that such a laboratory would be viewed positively by students. This model may be adopted by colleges to expand pharmacogenetics education.   Type: Case Study

Shared decision-making at the end of life: A focus group study exploring the perceptions and experiences of multi-disciplinary healthcare professionals working in the home setting.

Science.gov (United States)

Brogan, Paula; Hasson, Felicity; McIlfatrick, Sonja

2018-01-01

Globally recommended in healthcare policy, Shared Decision-Making is also central to international policy promoting community palliative care. Yet realities of implementation by multi-disciplinary healthcare professionals who provide end-of-life care in the home are unclear. To explore multi-disciplinary healthcare professionals' perceptions and experiences of Shared Decision-Making at end of life in the home. Qualitative design using focus groups, transcribed verbatim and analysed thematically. A total of 43 participants, from multi-disciplinary community-based services in one region of the United Kingdom, were recruited. While the rhetoric of Shared Decision-Making was recognised, its implementation was impacted by several interconnecting factors, including (1) conceptual confusion regarding Shared Decision-Making, (2) uncertainty in the process and (3) organisational factors which impeded Shared Decision-Making. Multiple interacting factors influence implementation of Shared Decision-Making by professionals working in complex community settings at the end of life. Moving from rhetoric to reality requires future work exploring the realities of Shared Decision-Making practice at individual, process and systems levels.

An exploration of clinical decision making in mental health triage.

Science.gov (United States)

Sands, Natisha

2009-08-01

Mental health (MH) triage is a specialist area of clinical nursing practice that involves complex decision making. The discussion in this article draws on the findings of a Ph.D. study that involved a statewide investigation of the scope of MH triage nursing practice in Victoria, Australia. Although the original Ph.D. study investigated a number of core practices in MH triage, the focus of the discussion in this article is specifically on the findings related to clinical decision making in MH triage, which have not previously been published. The study employed an exploratory descriptive research design that used mixed data collection methods including a survey questionnaire (n = 139) and semistructured interviews (n = 21). The study findings related to decision making revealed a lack of empirically tested evidence-based decision-making frameworks currently in use to support MH triage nursing practice. MH triage clinicians in Australia rely heavily on clinical experience to underpin decision making and have little of knowledge of theoretical models for practice, such as methodologies for rating urgency. A key recommendation arising from the study is the need to develop evidence-based decision-making frameworks such as clinical guidelines to inform and support MH triage clinical decision making.

Estimating strategic interactions in petroleum exploration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, C.-Y. Cynthia

2009-01-01

When individual petroleum-producing firms make their exploration decisions, information externalities and extraction externalities may lead them to interact strategically with their neighbors. If they do occur, strategic interactions in exploration would lead to a loss in both firm profit and government royalty revenue. Since these strategic interactions would be inefficient, changes in the government offshore leasing policy would need to be considered. The possibility of strategic interactions thus poses a concern to policy-makers and affects the optimal government policy. This paper examines whether these inefficient strategic interactions take place in U.S. federal lands in the Gulf of Mexico. In particular, it analyzes whether a firm's exploration decisions depend on the decisions of firms owning neighboring tracts of land. A discrete response model of a firm's exploration timing decision that uses variables based on the timing of a neighbor's lease term as instruments for the neighbor's decision is employed. The results suggest that strategic interactions do not actually take place, at least not in exploration, and therefore that the current parameters of the government offshore leasing policy do not lead to inefficient petroleum exploration. (author)

Exaggerated risk: prospect theory and probability weighting in risky choice.

Science.gov (United States)

Kusev, Petko; van Schaik, Paul; Ayton, Peter; Dent, John; Chater, Nick

2009-11-01

In 5 experiments, we studied precautionary decisions in which participants decided whether or not to buy insurance with specified cost against an undesirable event with specified probability and cost. We compared the risks taken for precautionary decisions with those taken for equivalent monetary gambles. Fitting these data to Tversky and Kahneman's (1992) prospect theory, we found that the weighting function required to model precautionary decisions differed from that required for monetary gambles. This result indicates a failure of the descriptive invariance axiom of expected utility theory. For precautionary decisions, people overweighted small, medium-sized, and moderately large probabilities-they exaggerated risks. This effect is not anticipated by prospect theory or experience-based decision research (Hertwig, Barron, Weber, & Erev, 2004). We found evidence that exaggerated risk is caused by the accessibility of events in memory: The weighting function varies as a function of the accessibility of events. This suggests that people's experiences of events leak into decisions even when risk information is explicitly provided. Our findings highlight a need to investigate how variation in decision content produces variation in preferences for risk.

Geophysical and geochemical techniques for exploration of hydrocarbons and minerals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sittig, M.

1980-01-01

The detailed descriptive information in this book is based on 389 US patents that deal with geophysical and geochemical techniques useful for the exploration of hydrocarbons and minerals. Where it was necessary to round out the complete technological picture, a few paragraphs from cited government reports have been included. These techniques are used in prospecting for oil, coal, oil shale, tar sand and minerals. The patents are grouped under the following chapters: geochemical prospecting; geobiological prospecting; geophysical exploration; magnetic geophysical prospecting; gravitational geophysical prospecting; electrical geophysical prospecting; nuclear geophysical prospecting; seismic geophysical prospecting; and exploratory well drilling. This book serves a double purpose in that it supplies detailed technical information and can be used as a guide to the US patent literature in this field. By indicating all the information that is significant, and eliminating legal jargon and juristic phraseology, this book presents an advanced, industrially oriented review of modern methods of geophysical and geochemical exploration techniques

Present condition of uranium exploration and the prospecting direction in southwest China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ni Shijun; Zhang Chengjiang; Xu Zhengqi; Chen Youliang

2012-01-01

Southwest China is one of the important areas where uranium is distributed. After exploration and research of 50 years, the metallogenic conditions for uranium deposits in Southwest China have been studied more deeply. It is found that uranium ore in Southwest China has more complete types, less deposits and more mineral occurrences, and the amount of uranium resources is disproportionate to the area of Southwest China. Researches of years show that Southwest China is characterized by thick crust. thick sedimentary cover, weak crust-mantle interaction, weak deep flu id activity in shallow strata, strong dynamic formation in shallow strata and obvious deep geologic process on block mar- gins. In this paper, the control of deep geologic process and evolution in uranium metallogenesis in Southwest China is studied by employing new theories and thoughts on the fundamental concept that deep geologic process and evolution has important control on super-large scale deposits. The study focuses on the crust-mantle structure and evolution with uranium metallogenesis, structural and magmatic activity and deep fluid activity with uranium metallogenesis, and ore-con- trolling role of penetrating faults on block edges and inside the blocks. To offer theoretic basis for large-scale uranium deposit prospecting in Southwest China, the key research on uranium deposit in Southwest China in future should be on the deep geologic evolution and uranium metallogenesis in Western Qinling Region, the uranium metallogenesis of iron oxide copper gold deposits on Kangdian axis, the uranium metallogenesis in Yunnan-Guizhou contiguous area, the hydrothermal uranium metallogenesis in Eastern Tibet and Western Sichuan, and the connection between sandstone type uranium deposit and magmatic activity. Meanwhile, the above regions are also the key ones for uranium deposit prospecting in Southwest China in a rather long period in future. (authors)

[Cognitive mechanisms in risky decision-making in cannabis users].

Science.gov (United States)

J R, Alameda-Bailén; M P, Salguero-Alcañiz; A, Merchán-Clavellino; S, Paíno-Quesada

2014-01-01

The relationship between the use of cannabis and the decision-making processes was explored. A computerized version of the Iowa Gambling Task (Cards Software) in its normal and reverse version was used, and the Prospect Valence Learning (PVL) model, which characterize the process of decision-making based on the parameters: Recency, Consistency, Loss aversion and Utility shape, was applied. Seventy-three cannabis consumers and a control group with 73 nonconsumers participated in the study. In the normal mode, subjects in the control group scored higher than cannabis consumers. Both groups showed consistent responses and aversion to loss. Nonconsumers showed greater influence of the gain-loss frequency, while consumers were more influenced by the magnitude of the gain-loss. The influence of immediate choices was higher among consumers who showed a quick oblivion while in the control group this process was more gradual. In the reverse mode, task performance was better among control group participants. Both groups showed consistency, loss aversion, more influenced by the magnitude of the gain-loss, and low influence of immediate elections. The results show the relationship between drug use and the decision-making processes, being consistent with the results obtained in other studies where consumers had worse results than control group. Moreover, the PVL parameters allow to adequately characterize decision-making. This confirms the relationship between drug use and decision-making by either the vulnerability prior to consumption or the neurotoxicity of drugs.

At the precipice: a prospective exploration of medical students' expectations of the pre-clerkship to clerkship transition.

Science.gov (United States)

Soo, Jason; Brett-MacLean, Pamela; Cave, Marie-Therese; Oswald, Anna

2016-03-01

Medical learners face many challenging transitions. We prospectively explored students' perceptions of their upcoming transition to clerkship and their future professional selves. In 2013, 160/165 end-of-second-year medical students wrote narrative reflections and 79/165 completed a questionnaire on their perceptions of their upcoming transition to clerkship. Narratives were separately analyzed by four authors and then discussed to identify a final thematic framework using parsimonious category construction. We identified two overarching themes: (1) "Looking back": experiences which had helped students feel prepared for clerkship with subthemes focused on of patient care, shadowing, classroom teaching and the pre-clerkship years as foundational knowledge, (2) "Looking forward": anticipating the clerkship experience and the journey of becoming a physician with subthemes focused on death and dying, hierarchy, work-life balance, interactions with patients, concerns about competency and career choice. Questionnaire data revealed incongruities around expectations of minimal exposure to death and dying, little need for independent study and limited direct patient responsibility. We confirmed that internal transformations are happening in contemplative time even before clerkship. By prospectively exploring pre-clerkship students' perceptions of the transition to clerkship training we identified expectations and misconceptions that could be addressed with future curricular interventions. While students are aware of and anticipating their learning needs it is not as clear that they realise how much their future learning will depend on their own inner resources. We suggest that more attention be paid to professional identity formation and the development of the physician as a person during these critical transitions.

A qualitative study to explore influences on general practitioners' decisions to prescribe new drugs.

Science.gov (United States)

Jacoby, Ann; Smith, Monica; Eccles, Martin

2003-02-01

Ensuring appropriate prescribing is an important challenge for the health service, and the need for research that takes account of the reasons behind individual general practitioners' (GPs) prescribing decisions has been highlighted. To explore differences among GPs in their decisions to prescribe new drugs. Qualitative approach, using in-depth semistructured interviews. Northern and Yorkshire Health Authority Region. Participants were identified from a random sample of 520 GPs in a quantitative study of patterns of uptake of eight recently introduced drugs. Purposeful sampling ensured inclusion of GPs prescribing any of the eight drugs and working in a range of practice settings. Fifty-six GPs were interviewed, using a topic guide. Interviews were recorded on audiotape. Transcribed text was methodically coded and data were analysed by constantly comparing emerging themes. Both low and high prescribers shared a view of themselves as conservative in their prescribing behaviour. Low prescribers appeared to conform more strongly to group norms and identified a consensus among practice partners in prescribing and cost-consciousness. Conformism to group norms was represented by a commitment to practice formularies. High prescribers more often expressed themselves to be indifferent to drug costs and a shared practice ethos. A shift in the attitudes of some GPs is required before cost-effectiveness is routinely incorporated in drug prescribing. The promotion of rational prescribing is likely to be more successful if efforts are focused on GPs' appreciation of cost issues and attitudes towards shared decision-making and responsibility.

Career exploration behavior of Korean medical students

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hyejin An

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Purpose This study is to analyze the effects of medical students’ social support and career barriers on career exploration behavior mediated by career decision-making self-efficacy. Methods We applied the t-test to investigate the difference among the variables based on gender and admission types. Also, we performed path analysis to verify the effect of perceived career barriers and social support on career exploration behavior with career decision efficacy as a mediator. Results First, we noted statistically significant gender and admission type difference in social support, career barriers and career exploration behaviors. Second, social support and career barriers were found to influence career exploration behavior as a mediating variable for career decision-making self-efficacy. Conclusion Social support and career barriers as perceived by medical students influenced their career exploration behavior, with their decision-making self-efficacy serving as a full mediator. Therefore, this study has educational implications for career program development and educational training for career decision-making self-efficacy.

Career exploration behavior of Korean medical students.

Science.gov (United States)

An, Hyejin; Lee, Seung-Hee

2017-09-01

This study is to analyze the effects of medical students' social support and career barriers on career exploration behavior mediated by career decision-making self-efficacy. We applied the t-test to investigate the difference among the variables based on gender and admission types. Also, we performed path analysis to verify the effect of perceived career barriers and social support on career exploration behavior with career decision efficacy as a mediator. First, we noted statistically significant gender and admission type difference in social support, career barriers and career exploration behaviors. Second, social support and career barriers were found to influence career exploration behavior as a mediating variable for career decision-making self-efficacy. Social support and career barriers as perceived by medical students influenced their career exploration behavior, with their decision-making self-efficacy serving as a full mediator. Therefore, this study has educational implications for career program development and educational training for career decision-making self-efficacy.

Manufactured but not imported: new directions for research in shared decision making support and skills.

Science.gov (United States)

Edwards, Adrian; Evans, Rhodri; Elwyn, Glyn

2003-05-01

Significant conceptual work on shared decision making has taken place but there are still significant challenges in achieving it in routine clinical practice. This paper outlines what research has identified to date that may promote shared decision making, and the further research that is required to enable continuing progress. Greater understanding of the models of decision making and instruments to identify them in practice are still required. Specifying consumer competences, developing instruments to assess these and interventions to enhance them may also be important. Clarifying all these aspects may enable those charged with training professionals to improve the content of professional development programmes. This may be particularly important in the field of cancer treatments where the stakes are high-patients usually desire much information but their desire for involvement in decision making is more variable. The consequences of getting this balance right or wrong are significant with much to be gained or lost. Continued development and evaluation of decision aids and decision explorers that use interactive technology will also be important in identifying how to progress with consumer involvement. If we can learn these lessons, then wider implementation of shared decision making or consumer involvement may become a nearer prospect.

Decision Making Among Older Adults at the End of Life: A Theoretical Perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Romo, Rafael D; Dawson-Rose, Carol S; Mayo, Ann M; Wallhagen, Margaret I

Understanding changes in decision making among older adults across time is important for health care providers. We examined how older adults with a limited prognosis used their perception of prognosis and health in their decision-making processes and related these findings to prospect theory. The theme of decision making in the context of ambiguity emerged, reflecting how participants used both prognosis and health to value choices, a behavior not fully captured by prospect theory. We propose an extension of the theory that can be used to better visualize decision making at this unique time of life among older adults.

Prior task experience and comparable stimulus exposure nullify focal and nonfocal prospective memory retrieval differences.

Science.gov (United States)

Hicks, Jason L; Franks, Bryan A; Spitler, Samantha N

2017-10-01

We explored the nature of focal versus nonfocal event-based prospective memory retrieval. In the context of a lexical decision task, people received an intention to respond to a single word (focal) in one condition and to a category label (nonfocal) for the other condition. Participants experienced both conditions, and their order was manipulated. The focal instruction condition was a single word presented multiple times. In Experiment 1, the stimuli in the nonfocal condition were different exemplars from a category, each presented once. In the nonfocal condition retrieval was poorer and reaction times were slower during the ongoing task as compared to the focal condition, replicating prior findings. In Experiment 2, the stimulus in the nonfocal condition was a single category exemplar repeated multiple times. When this single-exemplar nonfocal condition followed in time the single-item focal condition, focal versus nonfocal performance was virtually indistinguishable. These results demonstrate that people can modify their stimulus processing and expectations in event-based prospective memory tasks based on experience with the nature of prospective cues and with the ongoing task.

Decision-Making in Suicidal Behavior: The Protective Role of Loss Aversion.

Science.gov (United States)

Hadlaczky, Gergö; Hökby, Sebastian; Mkrtchian, Anahit; Wasserman, Danuta; Balazs, Judit; Machín, Núria; Sarchiapone, Marco; Sisask, Merike; Carli, Vladimir

2018-01-01

Loss aversion is a central and well operationalized trait behavior that describes the tendency for humans to strongly prefer avoiding losses to making equivalent gains. Human decision-making is thus biased toward safer choices. The aim of this study was to explore the relationship between loss aversion and suicidal behavior in a large cohort of adolescents recruited in 30 schools of seven European countries for a longitudinal study (Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN65120704). We hypothesized that individuals with higher loss aversion would be less likely to attempt suicide. A mixed monetary gamble task was used to generate loss aversion scores for each participant. Logistic regression was used to estimate the cross-sectional association between loss aversion and life-time suicide attempts in the baseline sample ( N  = 2,158; 156 attempters), and incident attempts were predicted in a 4-month prospective model ( N  = 1,763; 75 attempters). Multiple regression was used to estimate the association between loss aversion and suicidal ideation. Loss aversion was a significant predictor of attempted suicide in both the cross-sectional (OR = 0.79; P  = 0.005) and prospective analysis (OR = 0.81; P  = 0.040), adjusting for depression, anxiety, stress, and sex. The correlation between pre and post measures of loss aversion was r  = 0.52 ( P  loss aversion was not (cross-sectional model: P  = 0.092; Prospective model: P  = 0.390). This suggests that the concept of loss aversion may be useful in understanding the transition from suicidal thoughts to attempts. This and previous studies suggest that altered decision-making is involved in suicide attempts. In our study, we show the involvement of loss aversion in particular, and propose that individuals high in loss aversion are discouraged from carrying out the suicide attempt because of a greater focus on the negative consequences of the decision.

Deliberative democracy in health care: current challenges and future prospects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Safaei J

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Jalil Safaei Department of Economics, University of Northern British Columbia, Prince George, BC, CanadaBackground: There is a vast body of literature on deliberative, participative, or engaged democracy. In the area of health care there is a rapidly expanding literature on deliberative democracy as embodied in various notions of public engagement, shared decision-making (SDM, patient-centered care, and patient/care provider autonomy over the past few decades. It is useful to review such literature to get a sense of the challenges and prospects of introducing deliberative democracy in health care.Objective: This paper reviews the key literature on deliberative democracy and SDM in health care settings with a focus on identifying the main challenges of promoting this approach in health care, and recognizing its progress so far for mapping out its future prospects in the context of advanced countries.Method: Several databases were searched to identify the literature pertinent to the subject of this study. A total of 56 key studies in English were identified and reviewed carefully for indications and evidence of challenges and/or promising avenues of promoting deliberative democracy in health care.Results: Time pressure, lack of financial motivation, entrenched professional interests, informational imbalance, practical feasibility, cost, diversity of decisions, and contextual factors are noted as the main challenges. As for the prospects, greater clarity on conception of public engagement and policy objectives, real commitment of the authorities to public input, documenting evidence of the effectiveness of public involvement, development of patient decision supports, training of health professionals in SDM, and use of multiple and flexible methods of engagement leadership suited to specific contexts are the main findings in the reviewed literature.Conclusion: Seeking deliberative democracy in health care is both challenging and rewarding. The

Decision making over imprecise lotteries

OpenAIRE

Rébillé, Yann

2005-01-01

URL des Cahiers :http://mse.univ-paris1.fr/MSEFramCahier2005.htm; Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques 2005.89 - ISSN : 1624-0340; Since von Neuman and Morgenstern's (1944) contribution to game theory, the expected utility criterion has become the standard functional to evaluate risky prospects. Risky prospects are understood to be lotteries on a set of prizes. In which case a decision maker will receive a precise prize with a given probability. A wide interest on imprecise object ha...

Health values and prospect theory: a comment.

Science.gov (United States)

Stratmann-Schoene, D; Klose, T

2001-01-01

In a recent volume of Medical Decision Making, Treadwell and Lenert stated that under prospect theory, community members compared with patients underestimate the utility of health improvements. In this comment, the authors show that this statement holds only for a subset of possible preference functions. Furthermore, the authors provide arguments that, in general, the rater's current health state is not the appropriate reference level if applying prospect theory to health valuations.

International petroleum licensing, exploration activity and fiscal terms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hodgshon, S.

1994-01-01

Although there is no decline in current international petroleum licensing activity, attention is drawn to the fact that it is concentrated in certain countries, many of them amongst the less geologically prospective. Among the factors other then geological prospectivity which promote a successful licensing and exploration environment, the most important is the fiscal terms offered. While countries which are highly prospective geologically may stiffen terms and still attract exploration companies because they feel they can make major discoveries, any decline in prospectivity needs to be accompanied by a matching change in fiscal terms to maintain interest. Less prospective countries which, hitherto, have created favourable investment conditions may however find that further declines cannot be reversed by attractive fiscal terms. (7 figures, 3 tables). (UK)

Integrated prospecting model in Jinguanchong uranium deposit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xie Yongjian

2006-01-01

Jinguanchong uranium deposit is large in scale, which brings difficulties to prospecting and researches. Based on conditions of mineral-formation, geophysics and geochemistry, this paper summarizes a few geophysical and geochemical prospecting methods applied to this deposit. The principles, characteristics, application condition and exploration phases of these prospecting methods are discussed and some prospecting examples are also given in the prospecting for Jinguanchong uranium deposit. Based on summarizing the practice and effects of different methods such as gamma and electromagnetic method, soil emanation prospecting, track etch technique and polonium method used in uranium prospecting, the author finally puts forward a primary uranium prospecting model for the further prospecting in Jinguanchong uranium deposit through combining the author's experience with practice. (authors)

Multiple triangulation and collaborative research using qualitative methods to explore decision making in pre-hospital emergency care

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maxine Johnson

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Paramedics make important and increasingly complex decisions at scene about patient care. Patient safety implications of influences on decision making in the pre-hospital setting were previously under-researched. Cutting edge perspectives advocate exploring the whole system rather than individual influences on patient safety. Ethnography (the study of people and cultures has been acknowledged as a suitable method for identifying health care issues as they occur within the natural context. In this paper we compare multiple methods used in a multi-site, qualitative study that aimed to identify system influences on decision making. Methods The study was conducted in three NHS Ambulance Trusts in England and involved researchers from each Trust working alongside academic researchers. Exploratory interviews with key informants e.g. managers (n = 16 and document review provided contextual information. Between October 2012 and July 2013 researchers observed 34 paramedic shifts and ten paramedics provided additional accounts via audio-recorded ‘digital diaries’ (155 events. Three staff focus groups (total n = 21 and three service user focus groups (total n = 23 explored a range of experiences and perceptions. Data collection and analysis was carried out by academic and ambulance service researchers as well as service users. Workshops were held at each site to elicit feedback on the findings and facilitate prioritisation of issues identified. Results The use of a multi-method qualitative approach allowed cross-validation of important issues for ambulance service staff and service users. A key factor in successful implementation of the study was establishing good working relationships with academic and ambulance service teams. Enrolling at least one research lead at each site facilitated the recruitment process as well as study progress. Active involvement with the study allowed ambulance service researchers and service

Multiple triangulation and collaborative research using qualitative methods to explore decision making in pre-hospital emergency care.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Maxine; O'Hara, Rachel; Hirst, Enid; Weyman, Andrew; Turner, Janette; Mason, Suzanne; Quinn, Tom; Shewan, Jane; Siriwardena, A Niroshan

2017-01-24

Paramedics make important and increasingly complex decisions at scene about patient care. Patient safety implications of influences on decision making in the pre-hospital setting were previously under-researched. Cutting edge perspectives advocate exploring the whole system rather than individual influences on patient safety. Ethnography (the study of people and cultures) has been acknowledged as a suitable method for identifying health care issues as they occur within the natural context. In this paper we compare multiple methods used in a multi-site, qualitative study that aimed to identify system influences on decision making. The study was conducted in three NHS Ambulance Trusts in England and involved researchers from each Trust working alongside academic researchers. Exploratory interviews with key informants e.g. managers (n = 16) and document review provided contextual information. Between October 2012 and July 2013 researchers observed 34 paramedic shifts and ten paramedics provided additional accounts via audio-recorded 'digital diaries' (155 events). Three staff focus groups (total n = 21) and three service user focus groups (total n = 23) explored a range of experiences and perceptions. Data collection and analysis was carried out by academic and ambulance service researchers as well as service users. Workshops were held at each site to elicit feedback on the findings and facilitate prioritisation of issues identified. The use of a multi-method qualitative approach allowed cross-validation of important issues for ambulance service staff and service users. A key factor in successful implementation of the study was establishing good working relationships with academic and ambulance service teams. Enrolling at least one research lead at each site facilitated the recruitment process as well as study progress. Active involvement with the study allowed ambulance service researchers and service users to gain a better understanding of the research

The Application of Recognition-Primed Decision Theory to Decisions Made in an Outdoor Education Context

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Boyes, Mike; Potter, Tom

2015-01-01

This research examined the decisions that highly experienced outdoor leaders made on backpacking expeditions conducted by a tertiary institution in the Southern Alps of New Zealand. The purpose of the research was to document decision problems and explore them as Recognition-Primed Decisions (RPD) within naturalistic decision making (NDM)…

Decision Utility Theory: Back to von Neumann, Morgenstern, and Markowitz

OpenAIRE

Kontek, Krzysztof

2010-01-01

Prospect Theory (1979) and its Cumulative version (1992) argue for probability weighting to explain lottery choices. Decision Utility Theory presents an alternative solution, which makes no use of this concept. The new theory distinguishes decision and perception utility, postulates a double S-shaped decision utility curve similar to one hypothesized by Markowitz (1952), and applies the expected decision utility value similarly to the theory by von Neumann and Morgenstern (1944). Decision Uti...

A prospective evaluation of laparoscopic exploration with intraoperative ultrasound as a technique for localizing sporadic insulinomas.

Science.gov (United States)

Grover, Amelia C; Skarulis, Monica; Alexander, H Richard; Pingpank, James F; Javor, Edward D; Chang, Richard; Shawker, Thomas; Gorden, Phil; Cochran, Craig; Libutti, Steven K

2005-12-01

Preoperative imaging studies localize insulinomas in less than 50% of patients. Arteriography with calcium stimulation and venous sampling (ASVS) regionalizes greater than 90% of insulinomas but requires specialized expertise and an invasive procedure. This prospective study evaluated laparoscopic exploration with IOUS compared with the other localization procedures in patients with a sporadic insulinoma. Between March 2001 and October 2004, 14 patients (7 women and 7 men; mean age, 53) with an insulinoma were enrolled in an IRB-approved protocol. Computed tomography, magnetic resonance imaging, ultrasound scan, and arteriography with calcium stimulation and venous sampling were performed preoperatively. A surgeon, blinded to the results of the localizing studies, performed a laparoscopic exploration with intraoperative ultrasound (IOUS). At the completion of the exploration, the success of laparoscopy for localization was scored, and the tumor was resected. Twelve of 14 tumors were localized successfully before laparoscopy (noninvasive, 7 of 14; invasive, 11 of 14). Laparoscopic IOUS localized successfully 12 of 14 tumors. All lesions were resected, and all patients were cured (median follow-up, 36 months). Laparoscopic IOUS identified 86% of tumors. The authors consider laparoscopic IOUS to be equivalent to ASVS in localizing insulinomas. Further study is therefore warranted to determine the role of laparoscopy with IOUS in the localization and treatment algorithm for patients with sporadic insulinoma.

An overview of bipolar qualitative decision rules

Science.gov (United States)

Bonnefon, Jean-Francois; Dubois, Didier; Fargier, Hélène

Making a good decision is often a matter of listing and comparing positive and negative arguments, as studies in cognitive psychology have shown. In such cases, the evaluation scale should be considered bipolar, that is, negative and positive values are explicitly distinguished. Generally, positive and negative features are evaluated separately, as done in Cumulative Prospect Theory. However, contrary to the latter framework that presupposes genuine numerical assessments, decisions are often made on the basis of an ordinal ranking of the pros and the cons, and focusing on the most salient features, i.e., the decision process is qualitative. In this paper, we report on a project aiming at characterizing several decision rules, based on possibilistic order of magnitude reasoning, and tailored for the joint handling of positive and negative affects, and at testing their empirical validity. The simplest rules can be viewed as extensions of the maximin and maximax criteria to the bipolar case and, like them, suffer from a lack of discrimination power. More decisive rules that refine them are also proposed. They account for both the principle of Pareto-efficiency and the notion of order of magnitude reasoning. The most decisive one uses a lexicographic ranking of the pros and cons. It comes down to a special case of Cumulative Prospect Theory, and subsumes the “Take the best” heuristic.

Models of Affective Decision Making: How Do Feelings Predict Choice?

Science.gov (United States)

Charpentier, Caroline J; De Neve, Jan-Emmanuel; Li, Xinyi; Roiser, Jonathan P; Sharot, Tali

2016-06-01

Intuitively, how you feel about potential outcomes will determine your decisions. Indeed, an implicit assumption in one of the most influential theories in psychology, prospect theory, is that feelings govern choice. Surprisingly, however, very little is known about the rules by which feelings are transformed into decisions. Here, we specified a computational model that used feelings to predict choices. We found that this model predicted choice better than existing value-based models, showing a unique contribution of feelings to decisions, over and above value. Similar to the value function in prospect theory, our feeling function showed diminished sensitivity to outcomes as value increased. However, loss aversion in choice was explained by an asymmetry in how feelings about losses and gains were weighted when making a decision, not by an asymmetry in the feelings themselves. The results provide new insights into how feelings are utilized to reach a decision. © The Author(s) 2016.

Use of probability methods in prospecting-exploration in looking for oil. Primeneniye veroyatnostnykh metodov v poiskovo-razvedochnykh rabotakh na neft'

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kharbukh, Dzh U; Davton, Dzh Kh; Devis, Dzh K

1981-01-01

The experience of using probability methods in different geological conditions on the US territory is generalized. The efficiency of using systems analysis, imitation modeling of prospecting-exploration process and conditions for arrangement of fields, machine processing of data in plotting different types of structural maps, probability forecasting of the presence of fields is shown. Especial attention is focused on nonstructural traps. A brief dictionary of terms is presented used in the mathematical apparatus and the computer in oil geology.

Decision models in explorative and exploitative innovation projects: a case study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wolbers, Michiel; Hofman, Erwin; Halman, Johannes I.M.

2013-01-01

Innovation processes are seen as collections of decisions that are made in the context of a single innovation project. Those decisions determine the course and the final success of an innovation project. There is, however, a lack of literature on how decisions are made in innovation projects. In

Mothers' process of decision making for gastrostomy placement.

Science.gov (United States)

Brotherton, Ailsa; Abbott, Janice

2012-05-01

In this article we present the findings of an exploration of mothers' discourses on decision making for gastrostomy placement for their child. Exploring in-depth interviews of a purposive sample, we analyzed the mothers' discourses of the decision-making process to understand how their experiences of the process influenced their subsequent constructions of decision making. Mothers negotiated decision making by reflecting on their personal experiences of feeding their child, either orally or via a tube, and interwove their background experiences with the communications from members of the health care team until a decision was reached. Decision making was often fraught with difficulty, resulting in anxiety and guilt. Experiences of decision making ranged from perceived coercion to true choice, which encompasses a truly child-centered decision. The resulting impact of the decision-making process on the mothers was profound. We conclude with an exploration of the implications for clinical practice and describe how health care professionals can support mothers to ensure that decision-making processes for gastrostomy placement in children are significantly improved.

An Exploration of the Preparation and Organization of Teaching Practice Exercise to Prospective Science and Mathematics Teachers toward Improving Teaching Profession at Morogoro Teachers' College

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Mungure, Daudi Mika

2016-01-01

This paper explored the preparation and organization of teaching practice exercise to prospective science and mathematics teachers in Tanzania teachers college specifically Morogoro Teachers' College toward improving teaching profession. Due to the challenges stated by different scholars on preparation and organization of teaching practice…

A Netnographic Analysis of Prospective International Students' Decision-Making Process: Implications for Institutional Branding of American Universities in the Emerging Markets

Science.gov (United States)

Gai, Lili; Xu, Chunhao; Pelton, Lou E.

2016-01-01

The enrollment of international students (e.g. students admitted using a F-1 visa into the U.S.) has been increasing continually for the past six academic years in American higher educational institutions. This article explores how Chinese applicants make decisions during their application journey for Master's degree programs in business schools.…

Competence and Quality in Real-Life Decision Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Geisler, Martin; Allwood, Carl Martin

2015-01-01

What distinguishes a competent decision maker and how should the issue of decision quality be approached in a real-life context? These questions were explored in three studies. In Study 1, using a web-based questionnaire and targeting a community sample, we investigated the relationships between objective and subjective indicators of real-life decision-making success. In Study 2 and 3, targeting two different samples of professionals, we explored if the prevalent cognitively oriented definition of decision-making competence could be beneficially expanded by adding aspects of competence in terms of social skills and time-approach. The predictive power for each of these three aspects of decision-making competence was explored for different indicators of real-life decision-making success. Overall, our results suggest that research on decision-making competence would benefit by expanding the definition of competence, by including decision-related abilities in terms of social skills and time-approach. Finally, the results also indicate that individual differences in real-life decision-making success profitably can be approached and measured by different criteria.

Competence and Quality in Real-Life Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

2015-01-01

What distinguishes a competent decision maker and how should the issue of decision quality be approached in a real-life context? These questions were explored in three studies. In Study 1, using a web-based questionnaire and targeting a community sample, we investigated the relationships between objective and subjective indicators of real-life decision-making success. In Study 2 and 3, targeting two different samples of professionals, we explored if the prevalent cognitively oriented definition of decision-making competence could be beneficially expanded by adding aspects of competence in terms of social skills and time-approach. The predictive power for each of these three aspects of decision-making competence was explored for different indicators of real-life decision-making success. Overall, our results suggest that research on decision-making competence would benefit by expanding the definition of competence, by including decision-related abilities in terms of social skills and time-approach. Finally, the results also indicate that individual differences in real-life decision-making success profitably can be approached and measured by different criteria. PMID:26545239

Mobile geophysics for searching and exploration of Domanic hydrocarbon deposits

Science.gov (United States)

Borovsky, M. Ya; Uspensky, B. V.; Valeeva, S. E.; Borisov, A. S.

2018-05-01

There are noted features of shale hydrocarbons occurrence. It is shown the role of geophysical prospecting in the geological prospecting process for non-traditional sources of hydrocarbon. There are considered the possibilities of non-seismic methods for forecasting, prospecting, exploration and preparation of Domanikovian hydrocarbons accumulations for exploration. It is emphasized the need for geophysical studies of tectonic disturbances. Modern aerogeophysical instrumentation and methodological support allows to combine high-precision magneto-prospecting with gravimetric and gamma spectrometry. This combination of geophysical methods contributes to the diagnosis of active and latent faults.

Exploring stop-go decision zones at rural high-speed intersections with flashing green signal and insufficient yellow time in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Keshuang; Xu, Yanqing; Wang, Fen; Oguchi, Takashi

2016-10-01

The objective of this study is to empirically analyze and model the stop-go decision behavior of drivers at rural high-speed intersections in China, where a flashing green signal of 3s followed by a yellow signal of 3s is commonly applied to end a green phase. 1, 186 high-resolution vehicle trajectories were collected at four typical high-speed intersection approaches in Shanghai and used for the identification of actual stop-go decision zones and the modeling of stop-go decision behavior. Results indicate that the presence of flashing green significantly changed the theoretical decision zones based on the conventional Dilemma Zone theory. The actual stop-go decision zones at the study intersections were thus formulated and identified based on the empirical data. Binary Logistic model and Fuzzy Logic model were then developed to further explore the impacts of flashing green on the stop-go behavior of drivers. It was found that the Fuzzy Logic model could produce comparably good estimation results as compared to the traditional Binary Logistic models. The findings of this study could contribute the development of effective dilemma zone protection strategies, the improvement of stop-go decision model embedded in the microscopic traffic simulation software and the proper design of signal change and clearance intervals at high-speed intersections in China. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Understanding evidence: a statewide survey to explore evidence-informed public health decision-making in a local government setting.

Science.gov (United States)

Armstrong, Rebecca; Waters, Elizabeth; Moore, Laurence; Dobbins, Maureen; Pettman, Tahna; Burns, Cate; Swinburn, Boyd; Anderson, Laurie; Petticrew, Mark

2014-12-14

The value placed on types of evidence within decision-making contexts is highly dependent on individuals, the organizations in which the work and the systems and sectors they operate in. Decision-making processes too are highly contextual. Understanding the values placed on evidence and processes guiding decision-making is crucial to designing strategies to support evidence-informed decision-making (EIDM). This paper describes how evidence is used to inform local government (LG) public health decisions. The study used mixed methods including a cross-sectional survey and interviews. The Evidence-Informed Decision-Making Tool (EvIDenT) survey was designed to assess three key domains likely to impact on EIDM: access, confidence, and organizational culture. Other elements included the usefulness and influence of sources of evidence (people/groups and resources), skills and barriers, and facilitators to EIDM. Forty-five LGs from Victoria, Australia agreed to participate in the survey and up to four people from each organization were invited to complete the survey (n = 175). To further explore definitions of evidence and generate experiential data on EIDM practice, key informant interviews were conducted with a range of LG employees working in areas relevant to public health. In total, 135 responses were received (75% response rate) and 13 interviews were conducted. Analysis revealed varying levels of access, confidence and organizational culture to support EIDM. Significant relationships were found between domains: confidence, culture and access to research evidence. Some forms of evidence (e.g. community views) appeared to be used more commonly and at the expense of others (e.g. research evidence). Overall, a mixture of evidence (but more internal than external evidence) was influential in public health decision-making in councils. By comparison, a mixture of evidence (but more external than internal evidence) was deemed to be useful in public health decision

What is known about parents' treatment decisions? A narrative review of pediatric decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Lipstein, Ellen A; Brinkman, William B; Britto, Maria T

2012-01-01

With the increasing complexity of decisions in pediatric medicine, there is a growing need to understand the pediatric decision-making process. To conduct a narrative review of the current research on parent decision making about pediatric treatments and identify areas in need of further investigation. Articles presenting original research on parent decision making were identified from MEDLINE (1966-6/2011), using the terms "decision making," "parent," and "child." We included papers focused on treatment decisions but excluded those focused on information disclosure to children, vaccination, and research participation decisions. We found 55 papers describing 52 distinct studies, the majority being descriptive, qualitative studies of the decision-making process, with very limited assessment of decision outcomes. Although parents' preferences for degree of participation in pediatric decision making vary, most are interested in sharing the decision with the provider. In addition to the provider, parents are influenced in their decision making by changes in their child's health status, other community members, prior knowledge, and personal factors, such as emotions and faith. Parents struggle to balance these influences as well as to know when to include their child in decision making. Current research demonstrates a diversity of influences on parent decision making and parent decision preferences; however, little is known about decision outcomes or interventions to improve outcomes. Further investigation, using prospective methods, is needed in order to understand how to support parents through the difficult treatment decisions.

Distributed decision making in action: diagnostic imaging investigations within the bigger picture.

Science.gov (United States)

Makanjee, Chandra R; Bergh, Anne-Marie; Hoffmann, Willem A

2018-03-01

Decision making in the health care system - specifically with regard to diagnostic imaging investigations - occurs at multiple levels. Professional role players from various backgrounds are involved in making these decisions, from the point of referral to the outcomes of the imaging investigation. The aim of this study was to map the decision-making processes and pathways involved when patients are referred for diagnostic imaging investigations and to explore distributed decision-making events at the points of contact with patients within a health care system. A two-phased qualitative study was conducted in an academic public health complex with the district hospital as entry point. The first phase included case studies of 24 conveniently selected patients, and the second phase involved 12 focus group interviews with health care providers. Data analysis was based on Rapley's interpretation of decision making as being distributed across time, situations and actions, and including different role players and technologies. Clinical decisions incorporating imaging investigations are distributed across the three vital points of contact or decision-making events, namely the initial patient consultation, the diagnostic imaging investigation and the post-investigation consultation. Each of these decision-making events is made up of a sequence of discrete decision-making moments based on the transfer of retrospective, current and prospective information and its transformation into knowledge. This paper contributes to the understanding of the microstructural processes (the 'when' and 'where') involved in the distribution of decisions related to imaging investigations. It also highlights the interdependency in decision-making events of medical and non-medical providers within a single medical encounter. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Medical Radiation Sciences published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Australian Society of Medical Imaging and Radiation

The uranium market prospects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lloyd, R.

1981-01-01

A historical analysis of the uranium market points out the cyclical nature of the market and suggests that the spot price, exploration levels, and mill capacity utilization rate are dependent on economic factors. An examination of the current uranium market suggests that the effects of the forecasted surplus supply, the diminishing returns in exploration and the long lead times and high costs of development may mean that future production levels are uncertain. The general prospects for the uranium industry are also uncertain because of barriers to trade, environmental regulations and public opinion. The paper concludes that by the use of long term contracts, appropriate inventory policy and greater discussion between producers and consumers the prospects for the uranium market can be made more certain and further imbalances in demand and supply can be avoided. (author)

Consumer's Negative emotions, Financial Decisions, Financial Advice

OpenAIRE

Konstantaki, Violetta

2007-01-01

Abstract The purpose of this study is to explore the consumers decision making process. In particular, this study attempts to examine consumers negative emotions, which elicit during a decision processing. Especially, the case of a financial decision will be examined. Moreover, consumers negative emotion will be investigated in relation with consumers coping behaviour. To be more specific, the option of seeking advice as a successful consumers coping behaviour will be explor...

Numerical simulations of the spread of floating passive tracer released at the Old Harry prospect

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bourgault, Daniel; Cyr, Frédéric; Dumont, Dany; Carter, Angela

2014-01-01

The Gulf of St Lawrence is under immediate pressure for oil and gas exploration, particularly at the Old Harry prospect. A synthesis of the regulatory process that has taken place over the last few years indicates that important societal decisions soon to be made by various ministries and environmental groups are going to be based on numerous disagreements between the private sector and government agencies. The review also shows that the regulatory process has taken place with a complete lack of independent oceanographic research. Yet, the Gulf of St Lawrence is a complex environment that has never been specifically studied for oil and gas exploitation. Motivated by this knowledge gap, preliminary numerical experiments are carried out where the spreading of a passive floating tracer released at Old Harry is examined. Results indicate that the tracer released at Old Harry may follow preferentially two main paths. The first path is northward along the French Shore of Newfoundland, and the second path is along the main axis of the Laurentian Channel. The most probable coastlines to be touched by water flowing through Old Harry are Cape Breton and the southern portion of the French Shore, especially Cape Anguille and the Port au Port Peninsula. The Magdalen Islands are less susceptible to being affected than those regions but the probability is not negligible. These preliminary results provide guidance for future more in-depth and complete multidisciplinary studies from which informed decision-making scenarios could eventually be made regarding the exploration and development of oil and gas at the Old Harry prospect in particular and, more generally, in the Gulf of St Lawrence

Numerical simulations of the spread of floating passive tracer released at the Old Harry prospect

Science.gov (United States)

Bourgault, Daniel; Cyr, Frédéric; Dumont, Dany; Carter, Angela

2014-05-01

The Gulf of St Lawrence is under immediate pressure for oil and gas exploration, particularly at the Old Harry prospect. A synthesis of the regulatory process that has taken place over the last few years indicates that important societal decisions soon to be made by various ministries and environmental groups are going to be based on numerous disagreements between the private sector and government agencies. The review also shows that the regulatory process has taken place with a complete lack of independent oceanographic research. Yet, the Gulf of St Lawrence is a complex environment that has never been specifically studied for oil and gas exploitation. Motivated by this knowledge gap, preliminary numerical experiments are carried out where the spreading of a passive floating tracer released at Old Harry is examined. Results indicate that the tracer released at Old Harry may follow preferentially two main paths. The first path is northward along the French Shore of Newfoundland, and the second path is along the main axis of the Laurentian Channel. The most probable coastlines to be touched by water flowing through Old Harry are Cape Breton and the southern portion of the French Shore, especially Cape Anguille and the Port au Port Peninsula. The Magdalen Islands are less susceptible to being affected than those regions but the probability is not negligible. These preliminary results provide guidance for future more in-depth and complete multidisciplinary studies from which informed decision-making scenarios could eventually be made regarding the exploration and development of oil and gas at the Old Harry prospect in particular and, more generally, in the Gulf of St Lawrence.

Location-based prospective memory.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Rear, Andrea E; Radvansky, Gabriel A

2018-02-01

This study explores location-based prospective memory. People often have to remember to do things when in a particular location, such as buying tissues the next time they are in the supermarket. For event cognition theory, location is important for structuring events. However, because event cognition has not been used to examine prospective memory, the question remains of how multiple events will influence prospective memory performance. In our experiments, people delivered messages from store to store in a virtual shopping mall as an ongoing task. The prospective tasks were to do certain activities in certain stores. For Experiment 1, each trial involved one prospective memory task to be done in a single location at one of three delays. The virtual environment and location cues were effective for prospective memory, and performance was unaffected by delay. For Experiment 2, each trial involved two prospective memory tasks, given in either one or two instruction locations, and to be done in either one or two store locations. There was improved performance when people received instructions from two locations and did both tasks in one location relative to other combinations. This demonstrates that location-based event structure influences how well people perform on prospective memory tasks.

Bibliometrics as a Tool for Supporting Prospective R&D Decision-Making in the Health Sciences: Strengths, Weaknesses and Options for Future Development.

Science.gov (United States)

Ismail, Sharif; Nason, Edward; Marjanovic, Sonja; Grant, Jonathan

2012-01-01

Bibliometric analysis is an increasingly important part of a broader "toolbox" of evaluation methods available to research and development (R&D) policymakers to support decision-making. In the US, UK and Australia, for example, there is evidence of gradual convergence over the past ten years towards a model of university research assessment and ranking incorporating the use of bibliometric measures. In Britain, the Department of Health (England) has shown growing interest in using bibliometric analysis to support prospective R&D decision-making, and has engaged RAND Europe's expertise in this area through a number of exercises since 2005. These range from the macro-level selection of potentially high impact institutions, to micro-level selection of high impact individuals for the National Institute for Health Research's faculty of researchers. The aim of this study is to create an accessible, "beginner's guide" to bibliometric theory and application in the area of health R&D decision-making. The study also aims to identify future directions and possible next steps in this area, based on RAND Europe's work with the Department of Health to date. It is targeted at a range of audiences, and will be of interest to health and biomedical researchers, as well as R&D decision-makers in the UK and elsewhere. The study was completed with funding support from RAND Europe's Health R&D Policy Research Unit with the Department of Health.

Variation in decision making

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dall, Sasha R. X.; Gosling, Samuel; Gordon D.A., Brown,; Dingemanse, Niels; Ido, Erev,; Martin, Kocher,; Laura, Schulz,; Todd, Peter M; Weissing, Franz; Wolf, Max; Hammerstein, Peter; Stevens, Jeffrey R.

2012-01-01

Variation in how organisms allocate their behavior over their lifetimes is key to determining Darwinian fitness., and thus the evolution of human and nonhuman decision making. This chapter explores how decision making varies across biologically and societally significant scales and what role such

Asteroids. Prospective energy and material resources

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Badescu, Viorel (ed.) [Bucharest Polytechnic Univ. (Romania). Candida Oancea Institute

2013-11-01

Recent research on Prospective Energy and Material Resources on Asteroids. Carefully edited book dedicated to Asteroids prospective energy and material resources. Written by leading experts in the field. The Earth has limited material and energy resources while these resources in space are virtually unlimited. Further development of humanity will require going beyond our planet and exploring of extraterrestrial resources and sources of unlimited power. Thus far, all missions to asteroids have been motivated by scientific exploration. However, given recent advancements in various space technologies, mining asteroids for resources is becoming ever more feasible. A significant portion of asteroids value is derived from their location; the required resources do not need to be lifted at a great expense from the surface of the Earth. Resources derived from Asteroid not only can be brought back to Earth but could also be used to sustain human exploration of space and permanent settlements in space. This book investigates asteroids' prospective energy and material resources. It is a collection of topics related to asteroid exploration, and utilization. It presents past and future technologies and solutions to old problems that could become reality in our life time. The book therefore is a great source of condensed information for specialists involved in current and impending asteroid-related activities and a good starting point for space researchers, inventors, technologists and potential investors. Written for researchers, engineers, and businessmen interested in asteroids' exploration and exploitation.

The mathematics textbook at tertiary level as curriculum material - exploring the teacher's decision-making process

Science.gov (United States)

Randahl, Mira

2016-08-01

This paper reports on a study about how the mathematics textbook was perceived and used by the teacher in the context of a calculus part of a basic mathematics course for first-year engineering students. The focus was on the teacher's choices and the use of definitions, examples and exercises in a sequence of lectures introducing the derivative concept. Data were collected during observations of lectures and an interview, and informal talks with the teacher. The introduction and the treatment of the derivative as proposed by the teacher during the lectures were analysed in relation to the results of the content text analysis of the textbook. The teacher's decisions were explored through the lens of intended learning goals for engineering students taking the mathematics course. The results showed that the sequence of concepts and the formal introduction of the derivative as proposed by the textbook were closely followed during the lectures. The examples and tasks offered to the students focused strongly on procedural knowledge. Although the textbook proposes both examples and exercises that promote conceptual knowledge, these opportunities were not fully utilized during the observed lectures. Possible reasons for the teacher's choices and decisions are discussed.

Exploring Factors Affecting Emergency Medical Services Staffs' Decision about Transporting Medical Patients to Medical Facilities.

Science.gov (United States)

Ebrahimian, Abbasali; Seyedin, Hesam; Jamshidi-Orak, Roohangiz; Masoumi, Gholamreza

2014-01-01

Transfer of patients in medical emergency situations is one of the most important missions of emergency medical service (EMS) staffs. So this study was performed to explore affecting factors in EMS staffs' decision during transporting of patients in medical situations to medical facilities. The participants in this qualitative study consisted of 18 EMS staffs working in prehospital care facilities in Tehran, Iran. Data were gathered through semistructured interviews. The data were analyzed using a content analysis approach. The data analysis revealed the following theme: "degree of perceived risk in EMS staffs and their patients." This theme consisted of two main categories: (1) patient's condition' and (2) the context of the EMS mission'. The patent's condition category emerged from "physical health statuses," "socioeconomic statuses," and "cultural background" subcategories. The context of the EMS mission also emerged from two subcategories of "characteristics of the mission" and EMS staffs characteristics'. EMS system managers can consider adequate technical, informational, financial, educational, and emotional supports to facilitate the decision making of their staffs. Also, development of an effective and user-friendly checklist and scoring system was recommended for quick and easy recognition of patients' needs for transportation in a prehospital situation.

Age effects in emotional prospective memory: cue valence differentially affects the prospective and retrospective component.

Science.gov (United States)

Schnitzspahn, Katharina M; Horn, Sebastian S; Bayen, Ute J; Kliegel, Matthias

2012-06-01

While first studies suggested that emotional task material may enhance prospective memory performance in young and older adults, the extent and mechanisms of this effect are under debate. The authors explored possible differential effects of cue valence on the prospective and retrospective component of prospective memory in young and older adults. Forty-five young and 41 older adults performed a prospective memory task in which emotional valence of the prospective memory cue was manipulated (positive, negative, neutral). The multinomial model of event-based prospective memory was used to analyze effects of valence and age on the two prospective memory components separately. Results revealed an interaction indicating that age differences were smaller in both emotional valence conditions. For older adults positive cues improved the prospective component, while negative cues improved the retrospective component. No main effect of valence was found for younger adults on an overt accuracy measure, but model-based analyses showed that the retrospective component was enhanced in the positive compared with the negative cue condition. The study extends the literature in demonstrating that processes underlying emotional effects on prospective memory may differ depending on valence and age. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved

Possibilities of systems approach in oil and gas prospecting in the Perm Urals

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Viksman, S.I.; Kalabin, S.N.; Makalovskiy, V.V.

1985-01-01

An examination is made of the possibility of systems approach in prospecting and exploration for oil and gas; the advantages of this approach in purposeful selection of priority directions of prospecting and exploration are given.

Computing risk for oil prospects: principles and programs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harbaugh, J.W.; Davis, J.C.; Wendebourg, J.

1995-01-01

This volume in the series Computer Methods in the Geosciences examines the challenge of risk assessment, field size distributions, and success, sequence and gambler's ruin. The estimation of the discovery size from the prospect size, outcome probabilities and success ratios, modeling prospects, and mapping properties and uncertainties are reviewed, and discriminating discoveries and dry holes, forecasting cash flow for a prospect, the worth of money, and use of risk analysis tables, decision tables and trees are considered. Appendices cover the installation of the RISK program and user manuals, and two disks are included with the volume. (UK)

Systemic therapy in younger and elderly patients with advanced biliary cancer: sub-analysis of ABC-02 and twelve other prospective trials.

Science.gov (United States)

McNamara, Mairéad Geraldine; Bridgewater, John; Lopes, Andre; Wasan, Harpreet; Malka, David; Jensen, Lars Henrik; Okusaka, Takuji; Knox, Jennifer J; Wagner, Dorothea; Cunningham, David; Shannon, Jenny; Goldstein, David; Moehler, Markus; Bekaii-Saab, Tanios; Valle, Juan W

2017-04-12

Outcomes in younger (ABC) receiving palliative chemotherapy are unclear. This study assessed outcomes in those receiving monotherapy or combination therapy in thirteen prospective systemic-therapy trials. Multivariable analysis explored the impact of therapy on progression-free (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in two separate age cohort groups: ABC, younger patients are rare, and survival in elderly patients in receipt of systemic therapy for advanced disease, whether monotherapy or combination therapy, is similar to that of non-elderly patients, therefore age alone should not influence decisions regarding treatment.

Reflections on prospective raw materials and materials with regard to the Czech Republic

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schejbal, C.; Palas, M.

1997-01-01

Reflections on prospective mineral raw materials and materials must rest upon the expected demographic evolution, the evaluation of economic development and the development of manufacturing technologies and materials corresponding to them, trends in the consumption of mineral raw materials and possibilities of securing them. The evaluation of the given factors under conditions of the Czech Republic shows that one of the decisive prerequisites to transforming the Czech economy is to assure the fuel and energy security of the state. In addition to emphasis put on traditional and newly developed technologies of utilization of domestic resources of coal and the development of nuclear power, a diversification of supplies of oil and gas is necessary. Moreover, it is necessary to ensure domestic resources of raw materials to some prospective material areas, or to provide these raw materials by means of imports and/or entrepreneurial activity abroad. As far as raw materials for building and industrial rocks are concerned, it is necessary to support the exploitation and home utilization through laws and suitable economic tools at respecting environmental limitations. With non-traditional prospective raw materials, it will be desirable to promote exploration and mining especially in those cases when a precondition exists for the securing of sufficient reserves or when reserves are already known

Prospect Theory: Contributions to Understanding Actors, Causes and Consequences of Conflict in Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wendy Trott

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Despite many recognized shortcomings, Rational Choice Theory remains the dominant perspective on decision-making in the literature on African conflict, whether overtly acknowledged or not. Prospect Theory, originally derived from the field of behavioural economics, can complement and advance this perspective not only by explaining the behaviour of actors, but also by allowing for predictions and the devising of strategies to avoid or end on-going conflicts based on a set of systematic biases that influence how actors make decisions. After a brief definition of Prospect Theory, this work will begin with an overview of the existing literature on decision-making as it relates to conflict, examine how Rational Choice is inadequate in explaining much human behaviour and thus how Prospect Theory can fill this gap. It will then move on to give a fuller definition of the various hypotheses derived from Prospect Theory that pertain to the study of conflict. An example of the application of Prospect Theory to a related field in which thorough research has been conducted, Deterrence Theory, will be used to demonstrate the model’s potential for study in other areas. This will be followed by a more in-depth analysis of the ways in which Prospect Theory can contribute to understanding the behaviour of actors in war, the causes of conflict, and the consequences in the African context. It will conclude with a summary and proposition for further research that can advance this analysis.

Exploring the impact of a decision support intervention on vascular access decisions in chronic hemodialysis patients: study protocol

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Donnelly Sandra

2011-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background In patients with Stage 5 Chronic Kidney Disease who require renal replacement therapy a major decision concerns modality choice. However, many patients defer the decision about modality choice or they have an urgent or emergent need of RRT, which results in them starting hemodialysis with a Central Venous Catheter. Thereafter, efforts to help patients make more timely decisions about access choices utilizing education and resource allocation strategies met with limited success resulting in a high prevalent CVC use in Canada. Providing decision support tailored to meet patients' decision making needs may improve this situation. The Registered Nurses Association of Ontario has developed a clinical practice guideline to guide decision support for adults living with Chronic Kidney Disease (Decision Support for Adults with Chronic Kidney Disease. The purpose of this study is to determine the impact of implementing selected recommendations this guideline on priority provincial targets for hemodialysis access in patients with Stage 5 CKD who currently use Central Venous Catheters for vascular access. Methods/Design A non-experimental intervention study with repeated measures will be conducted at St. Michaels Hospital in Toronto, Canada. Decisional conflict about dialysis access choice will be measured using the validated SURE tool, an instrument used to identify decisional conflict. Thereafter a tailored decision support intervention will be implemented. Decisional conflict will be re-measured and compared with baseline scores. Patients and staff will be interviewed to gain an understanding of how useful this intervention was for them and whether it would be feasible to implement more widely. Quantitative data will be analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. Statistical significance of difference between means over time for aggregated SURE scores (pre/post will be assessed using a paired t-test. Qualitative analysis

Human-centric decision-making models for social sciences

CERN Document Server

Pedrycz, Witold

2014-01-01

The volume delivers a wealth of effective methods to deal with various types of uncertainty inherently existing in human-centric decision problems. It elaborates on  comprehensive decision frameworks to handle different decision scenarios, which help use effectively the explicit and tacit knowledge and intuition, model perceptions and preferences in a more human-oriented style. The book presents original approaches and delivers new results on fundamentals and applications related to human-centered decision making approaches to business, economics and social systems. Individual chapters cover multi-criteria (multiattribute) decision making, decision making with prospect theory, decision making with incomplete probabilistic information, granular models of decision making and decision making realized with the use of non-additive measures. New emerging decision theories being presented as along with a wide spectrum of ongoing research make the book valuable to all interested in the field of advanced decision-mak...

Considering the CPR Decision Through the Lens of Prospect Theory in the Context of Advanced Chronic Illness.

Science.gov (United States)

Bern-Klug, Mercedes

2017-02-01

It is common for people with advanced chronic illness to have many health care providers and many health care-related visits. It is also common, during those visits, to be asked whether attempts at cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) are desired, in the event of cardiac arrest. Although the question is common, the implications of a "yes" or a "no" may not be well understood. Although CPR can be a life-saving procedure, it is not always in the patient's best interest. This article discusses experiences with CPR of 2 older women (and their adult children) during their last years of life, and uses concepts from prospect theory to make suggestions for changes in the way health care providers and patients approach advance care planning including the CPR decision. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Prospect theory: An application to European option pricing

OpenAIRE

Martina Nardon; Paolo Pianca

2012-01-01

Empirical studies on quoted options highlight deviations from the theoretical model of Black and Scholes; this is due to different causes, such as assumptions regarding the price dynamics, markets frictions and investors' attitude toward risk. In this contribution, we focus on this latter issue and study how to value European options within the continuous cumulative prospect theory. According to prospect theory, individuals do not always take their decisions consistently with the maximization...

What Is Known about Parents’ Treatment Decisions? A Narrative Review of Pediatric Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

Lipstein, Ellen A.; Brinkman, William B.; Britto, Maria T.

2013-01-01

Background With the increasing complexity of decisions in pediatric medicine, there is a growing need to understand the pediatric decision-making process. Objective To conduct a narrative review of the current research on parent decision making about pediatric treatments and identify areas in need of further investigation. Methods Articles presenting original research on parent decision making were identified from MEDLINE (1966–6/2011), using the terms “decision making,” “parent,” and “child.” We included papers focused on treatment decisions but excluded those focused on information disclosure to children, vaccination, and research participation decisions. Results We found 55 papers describing 52 distinct studies, the majority being descriptive, qualitative studies of the decision-making process, with very limited assessment of decision outcomes. Although parents’ preferences for degree of participation in pediatric decision making vary, most are interested in sharing the decision with the provider. In addition to the provider, parents are influenced in their decision making by changes in their child’s health status, other community members, prior knowledge, and personal factors, such as emotions and faith. Parents struggle to balance these influences as well as to know when to include their child in decision making. Conclusions Current research demonstrates a diversity of influences on parent decision making and parent decision preferences; however, little is known about decision outcomes or interventions to improve outcomes. Further investigation, using prospective methods, is needed in order to understand how to support parents through the difficult treatment decisions. PMID:21969136

Sensitivity and bias in decision-making under risk: evaluating the perception of reward, its probability and value.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Madeleine E Sharp

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: There are few clinical tools that assess decision-making under risk. Tests that characterize sensitivity and bias in decisions between prospects varying in magnitude and probability of gain may provide insights in conditions with anomalous reward-related behaviour. OBJECTIVE: We designed a simple test of how subjects integrate information about the magnitude and the probability of reward, which can determine discriminative thresholds and choice bias in decisions under risk. DESIGN/METHODS: Twenty subjects were required to choose between two explicitly described prospects, one with higher probability but lower magnitude of reward than the other, with the difference in expected value between the two prospects varying from 3 to 23%. RESULTS: Subjects showed a mean threshold sensitivity of 43% difference in expected value. Regarding choice bias, there was a 'risk premium' of 38%, indicating a tendency to choose higher probability over higher reward. An analysis using prospect theory showed that this risk premium is the predicted outcome of hypothesized non-linearities in the subjective perception of reward value and probability. CONCLUSIONS: This simple test provides a robust measure of discriminative value thresholds and biases in decisions under risk. Prospect theory can also make predictions about decisions when subjective perception of reward or probability is anomalous, as may occur in populations with dopaminergic or striatal dysfunction, such as Parkinson's disease and schizophrenia.

Sensitivity and Bias in Decision-Making under Risk: Evaluating the Perception of Reward, Its Probability and Value

Science.gov (United States)

Sharp, Madeleine E.; Viswanathan, Jayalakshmi; Lanyon, Linda J.; Barton, Jason J. S.

2012-01-01

Background There are few clinical tools that assess decision-making under risk. Tests that characterize sensitivity and bias in decisions between prospects varying in magnitude and probability of gain may provide insights in conditions with anomalous reward-related behaviour. Objective We designed a simple test of how subjects integrate information about the magnitude and the probability of reward, which can determine discriminative thresholds and choice bias in decisions under risk. Design/Methods Twenty subjects were required to choose between two explicitly described prospects, one with higher probability but lower magnitude of reward than the other, with the difference in expected value between the two prospects varying from 3 to 23%. Results Subjects showed a mean threshold sensitivity of 43% difference in expected value. Regarding choice bias, there was a ‘risk premium’ of 38%, indicating a tendency to choose higher probability over higher reward. An analysis using prospect theory showed that this risk premium is the predicted outcome of hypothesized non-linearities in the subjective perception of reward value and probability. Conclusions This simple test provides a robust measure of discriminative value thresholds and biases in decisions under risk. Prospect theory can also make predictions about decisions when subjective perception of reward or probability is anomalous, as may occur in populations with dopaminergic or striatal dysfunction, such as Parkinson's disease and schizophrenia. PMID:22493669

What influences parents' decisions to limit or withdraw life support?

Science.gov (United States)

Sharman, Mahesh; Meert, Kathleen L; Sarnaik, Ashok P

2005-09-01

Decisions to forgo life support from critically ill children are commonly faced by parents and physicians. Previous research regarding parents' perspectives on the decision-making process has been limited by retrospective methods and the use of closed-ended questionnaires. We prospectively identified and described parents' self-reported influences on decisions to forgo life support from their children. Deeper understanding of parents' views will allow physicians to focus end-of-life discussions on factors important to parents and help resolve conflicts. Prospective, qualitative pilot study. Pediatric intensive care unit of a university-affiliated children's hospital. A total of 14 parents of ten children whose pediatric intensive care unit physician had made a recommendation to limit or withdraw life support. : In-depth, semistructured interviews were conducted with parents during their decision-making process. Factors influencing the parents in this study in their decision to forgo life support included their previous experience with death and end-of-life decision making for others, their personal observations of their child's suffering, their perceptions of their child's will to survive, their need to protect and advocate for their child, and the family's financial resources and concerns regarding life-long care. Parents in this study expressed the desire to do what is best for their child but struggled with feelings of selfishness, guilt, and the need to avoid agony and sorrow. Physician recommendations, review of options, and joint formulation of a plan helped parents gain a sense of control over their situation. Parents of eight children agreed to forgo life support and parents of two did not. Prospective interviews with open-ended questions identified factors influencing parents' decision making not previously described in the critical care literature such as parents' past experiences with end-of-life decisions and their anticipated emotional adjustments and

A methodology for handling exploration risk and constructing supply curves for oil and gas plays when resources are stacked

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dallaire, S.M.

1994-01-01

The use of project economics to estimate full-cycle supply prices for undiscovered oil and gas resources is a straightforward exercise for those regions where oil and gas plays are not vertically superimposed on one another, ie. are not stacked. Exploration risk is incorporated into such an analysis by using a simple two-outcome decision tree model to include the costs of dry and abandoned wells. The decision tree model can be expanded to include multiple targets or discoveries, but this expansion requires additional drilling statistics and resource assessment data. A methodology is suggested to include exploration risk in the preparation of supply curves when stacked resources are expected and little or no information on uphole resources is available. In this method, all exploration costs for wells drilled to targets in the play being evaluated are assigned to that play, rather than prorated among the multiple targets or discoveries. Undiscovered pools are assumed to either bear all exploration costs (full cycle discoveries) or no exploration costs (half cycle discoveries). The weighted full- and half-cycle supply price is shown to be a more realistic estimate of the supply price of undiscovered pools in a play when stacked resources exist. The statistics required for this methodology are minimal, and resource estimates for prospects in other zones are not required. The equation relating the average pool finding cost to the discovery record is applicable to different scenarios regarding the presence of shallower and deeper resources. The equation derived for the two-outcome decision tree model is shown to be a special case of the general expression. 5 refs., 7 figs

Thirty Years of Prospect Theory in Economics: A Review and Assessment

OpenAIRE

Nicholas C. Barberis

2013-01-01

In 1979, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, published a paper in Econometrica titled "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk." The paper presented a new model of risk attitudes called "prospect theory," which elegantly captured the experimental evidence on risk taking, including the documented violations of expected utility. More than 30 years later, prospect theory is still widely viewed as the best available description of how people evaluate risk in experimental settings. Howev...

Exploring factors in the decision to choose sterilization vs alternatives in rural El Salvador.

Science.gov (United States)

Cremer, Miriam L; Holland, Erica; Monterroza, Maritza; Duran, Sonia; Singh, Rameet; Terbell, Heather; Edelman, Alison

2008-01-01

To explore the factors that influence rural Salvadoran women to undergo tubal sterilization versus opting for alternative methods of family planning. A moderator fluent in English and Spanish conducted eleven 90-minute focus groups consisting of 5-10 women each. Eligible women in the municipality of San Pedro Perulapan, El Salvador, were identified and recruited by local health workers. Participant demographics and information about family planning decisions were collected through detailed notes and tape-recorded sessions. The tapes were transcribed verbatim, and all data were analyzed using grounded theory procedures to identify common themes. Eighty women aged 24-45 years who had previously been sterilized participated in the study. Three major themes influenced a woman's decision to undergo sterilization instead of opting for alternative forms of family planning: (1) availability: tubal sterilization is readily available, (2) fears about side effects of other methods: these women associated negative side effects with other forms of family planning, (3) effectiveness: the women in these focus groups thought sterilization was more effective than other forms of family planning. This study shows that there is a lack of information, and misinformation, about other effective methods of contraception, especially the intrauterine device and oral contraceptives. Reproductive health education projects, especially those providing services in locations similar to rural El Salvador, should focus on providing accurate information about all forms of contraception, including tubal sterilization.

Exploration for uranium in Argentina: New policies of reactivation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bianchi, R.E.

2009-01-01

Full text: The policy established by the National Government of Argentina in August 2006 related to resuming the Nuclear activity in the country, lead the CNEA trough the Exploration of Raw Materials Manager (ERMM) to establish working strategies for the next 10 years. These strategies together with the assignment of an adequate budget will contribute to define new uranium resources, which together with the already known ones, will be used to supply the requirements of Nuclear Power and Research Plants in the future. Thus, the ERMM is applying a policy of human resources hiring new personnel in order to count with the minimum necessary workforce to reach these tasks. In Argentina known U resources are related to sedimentary, igneous and metamorphic environments. Considering the geology of the different regions, Argentina has been divided into 57 units in which the geological, geochemical, mineralogical and structural information is evaluated in order to estimate the uranium geological favorability of each unit. The final pursuit of this regional study is to circumscribe new areas with anomalous uranium contents in which prospection and exploration should be carried out. These studies together with prospection and exploration works are performed in the country by four exploration centers based in Salta (RN), Cordoba (R.Ce), Mendoza (R.Cu) and Trelew (RP). The works planned for each exploration center includes: Regional Noroeste, Mina Franca Deposit: peri-granitic vein- type mineralization: 25% of surface exploration has been performed. Mineralized areas: Istataco and San Buenaventura correspond to an igneous-metamorphic environment, Sierra de Vaqueria to a sedimentary one: Prospection stage. Regional Centro, Mineralized areas: El Gallo: drilling stage and Donato: prospection stage, correspond to an igneous-metamorphic environment with intra and peri-granitic anomalies. Noya: prospection stage, sedimentary environment. Regional Cuyo, Mineralized area: Western Sierra

Explore 2070: what use of a prospective exercise on climate change impacts at the national scale to define adaptation strategies?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carroget, Aurelie; Perrin, Charles; Sauquet, Eric; Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Chazot, Sebastien; Chauveau, Mathilde; Rouchy, Nathalie

2017-01-01

Projected climate change could have important impacts on water availability in France by mid-21. century. The Explore 2070 prospective study, directed by the Ministry in charge of ecology, has thus highlighted the necessity to quantify and anticipate these changes, and to build adaptation strategies to limit their negative impacts on hydro-systems and human activities. This paper analyses how these works have contributed to the sensitization of water actors and to the reflection about climate change adaptation in France and to the reflection on adaptation to climate change in France

Until the bitter end : On prospect theory in a dynamic context

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ebert, S.; Strack, P.

Many economic and financial decisions depend crucially on their timing. People decide when to invest in a project, when to liquidate assets, or when to stop gambling in a casino. We provide a general result on prospect theory decision makers who are unaware of the time-inconsistency induced by

The Students Decision Making in Solving Discount Problem

Science.gov (United States)

Abdillah; Nusantara, Toto; Subanji; Susanto, Hery; Abadyo

2016-01-01

This research is reviewing students' process of decision making intuitively, analytically, and interactively. The research done by using discount problem which specially created to explore student's intuition, analytically, and interactively. In solving discount problems, researcher exploring student's decision in determining their attitude which…

Decision making and decision communications in elite rugby union referees: An inductive investigation

OpenAIRE

Cunningham, I; Mellick, M; Mascarenhas, Duncan R

2012-01-01

The application of law, combined with contextual judgment and communication have been shown to be essential skills of the elite sports official (Mascarenhas, Collins & Mortimer, 2005). Further, the behaviours that officials demonstrate to communicate decisions to sport participants have important implications for match outcomes and perceptions of fairness (Mellick et al., 2005; Simmons, 2010). The purpose of the present study was to explore the higher - order decision making and decision comm...

Prospective memory and aging: evidence for preserved spontaneous retrieval with exact but not related cues.

Science.gov (United States)

Mullet, Hillary G; Scullin, Michael K; Hess, Theodore J; Scullin, Rachel B; Arnold, Kathleen M; Einstein, Gilles O

2013-12-01

We examined whether normal aging spares or compromises cue-driven spontaneous retrieval processes that support prospective remembering. In Experiment 1, young and older adults performed prospective-memory tasks that required either strategic monitoring processes for retrieval (nonfocal) or for which participants relied on spontaneous retrieval processes (focal). We found age differences for nonfocal, but not focal, prospective-memory performance. Experiments 2 and 3 used an intention-interference paradigm in which participants were asked to perform a prospective-memory task (e.g., press "Q" when the word money appears) in the context of an image-rating task and were then told to suspend their prospective-memory intention until after completing an intervening lexical-decision task. During the lexical-decision task, we presented the exact prospective-memory cue (e.g., money; Experiments 2 and 3) or a semantically related lure (e.g., wallet; Experiment 3), and we inferred spontaneous retrieval from slowed lexical-decision responses to these items relative to matched control items. Young and older adults showed significant slowing when the exact prospective-memory cue was presented. Only young adults, however, showed significant slowing to the semantically related lure items. Collectively, these results partially support the multiprocess theory prediction that aging spares spontaneous retrieval processes. Spontaneous retrieval processes may become less sensitive with aging, such that older adults are less likely to respond to cues that do not exactly match their encoded targets. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Exploring decision-making for environmental health services: perspectives from four cities.

Science.gov (United States)

Hunt, C; Lewin, S

2000-01-01

Increasing resources are being allocated to environmental health monitoring, especially for developing methods and collecting data to construct environmental health indicators (EHIs). Yet, little research has focused on understanding how communities and service providers make decisions with regard to environmental health priorities and the role of indicators in this process. This paper presents insights regarding local decision-making that arose from a project to test the feasibility of using community-based EHIs to facilitate communication between the providers and the recipients of environmental services in four developing-country cities. The results of the study indicate that decision-making for environmental health services is complex and iterative rather than rational and linear. Contextual and process factors play an important role. These factors include the morale of service providers, the extent of collaboration between service agencies, the priorities of different community groups and relations between service providers and communities. Scientific information, in the form of EHIs, did not appear to be a key element of decision-making in the settings studied. As tools, EHIs are unlikely to become part of the decision-making process unless they are integrated with local agendas and backed by strong local representation.

Sampling and assessment accuracy in mate choice: a random-walk model of information processing in mating decision.

Science.gov (United States)

Castellano, Sergio; Cermelli, Paolo

2011-04-07

Mate choice depends on mating preferences and on the manner in which mate-quality information is acquired and used to make decisions. We present a model that describes how these two components of mating decision interact with each other during a comparative evaluation of prospective mates. The model, with its well-explored precedents in psychology and neurophysiology, assumes that decisions are made by the integration over time of noisy information until a stopping-rule criterion is reached. Due to this informational approach, the model builds a coherent theoretical framework for developing an integrated view of functions and mechanisms of mating decisions. From a functional point of view, the model allows us to investigate speed-accuracy tradeoffs in mating decision at both population and individual levels. It shows that, under strong time constraints, decision makers are expected to make fast and frugal decisions and to optimally trade off population-sampling accuracy (i.e. the number of sampled males) against individual-assessment accuracy (i.e. the time spent for evaluating each mate). From the proximate-mechanism point of view, the model makes testable predictions on the interactions of mating preferences and choosiness in different contexts and it might be of compelling empirical utility for a context-independent description of mating preference strength. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ethical decision-making, passivity and pharmacy

OpenAIRE

Cooper, R.J.; Bissell, P.; Wingfield, J.

2008-01-01

Background: Increasing interest in empirical ethics has enhanced understanding of healthcare professionals' ethical problems and attendant decision-making. A four-stage decision-making model involving ethical attention, reasoning, intention and action offers further insights into how more than reasoning alone may contribute to decision-making.\\ud \\ud Aims: To explore how the four-stage model can increase understanding of decision-making in healthcare and describe the decision-making of an und...

Exploring a Laboratory Model of Pharmacogenetics as Applied to Clinical Decision Making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Angela Smith, PharmD Candidate

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Objective: To evaluate a pilot of a laboratory model for relating pharmacogenetics to clinical decision making. Case Study: This pilot was undertaken and evaluated to help determine if a pharmacogenetics laboratory should be included in the core Doctor of Pharmacy curriculum. The placement of the laboratory exercise in the curriculum was determined by identifying the point in the curriculum where the students had been introduced to the chemistry of deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA as well as instructed on the chemistry of genetic variation. The laboratory included cytochrome P450 2C19 genotyping relative to the *2 variant. Twenty-four students served as the pilot group. Students provided buccal swabs as the source of DNA. Students stabilized the samples and were then provided instructions related to sample preparation, polymerase chain reaction, and gel electrophoresis. The results were reported as images of gels. Students used a reference gel image to compare their results to. Students then applied a dosing algorithm to make a “clinical decision” relative to clopidogrel use. Students were offered a post laboratory survey regarding attitudes toward the laboratory. Twenty-four students completed the laboratory with genotyping results being provided for 22 students (91.7%. Sixteen students were wild-type (*1/*1, while six students were heterozygous (*1/*2. Twenty-three students (96% completed the post laboratory survey. All 23 agreed (6, 26.1% or strongly agreed (17, 73.9% that the laboratory “had relevance and value in the pharmacy curriculum”. Conclusion: The post pilot study survey exploring a laboratory model for pharmacogenetics related to clinical decision making indicated that such a laboratory would be viewed positively by students. This model may be adopted by colleges to expand pharmacogenetics education.

Death Penalty Decisions: Instruction Comprehension, Attitudes, and Decision Mediators

OpenAIRE

Patry, Marc W.; Penrod, Steven D.

2013-01-01

A primary goal of this research was to empirically evaluate a set of assumptions, advanced in the Supreme Court’s ruling in Buchanan v. Angelone (1998), about jury comprehension of death penalty instructions. Further, this research examined the use of evidence in capital punishment decision making by exploring underlying mediating factors upon which death penalty decisions may be based. Manipulated variables included the type of instructions and several variations of evidence. Study 1 was a p...

Exploring Factors Affecting Emergency Medical Services Staffs’ Decision about Transporting Medical Patients to Medical Facilities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abbasali Ebrahimian

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Transfer of patients in medical emergency situations is one of the most important missions of emergency medical service (EMS staffs. So this study was performed to explore affecting factors in EMS staffs’ decision during transporting of patients in medical situations to medical facilities. The participants in this qualitative study consisted of 18 EMS staffs working in prehospital care facilities in Tehran, Iran. Data were gathered through semistructured interviews. The data were analyzed using a content analysis approach. The data analysis revealed the following theme: “degree of perceived risk in EMS staffs and their patients.” This theme consisted of two main categories: (1 patient’s condition’ and (2 the context of the EMS mission’. The patent’s condition category emerged from “physical health statuses,” “socioeconomic statuses,” and “cultural background” subcategories. The context of the EMS mission also emerged from two subcategories of “characteristics of the mission” and EMS staffs characteristics’. EMS system managers can consider adequate technical, informational, financial, educational, and emotional supports to facilitate the decision making of their staffs. Also, development of an effective and user-friendly checklist and scoring system was recommended for quick and easy recognition of patients’ needs for transportation in a prehospital situation.

Klasifikasi Nilai Kelayakan Calon Debitur Baru Menggunakan Decision Tree C4.5

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bambang Hermanto

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In an effort to improve the quality of customer service, especially in terms of feasibility assessment of borrowers due to the increasing number of new prospective borrowers loans financing the purchase of a motor vehicle, then the company needs a decision making tool allowing you to easily and quickly estimate Where the debtor is able to pay off the loans. This study discusses the process generates C4.5 decision tree algorithm and utilizing the learning group of debtor financing dataset motorcycle. The decision tree is then interpreted into the form of decision rules that can be understood and used as a reference in processing the data of borrowers in determining the feasibility of prospective new borrowers. Feasibility value refers to the value of the destination parameter credit status. If the value of the credit is paid off status mean estimated prospective borrower is able to repay the loan in question, but if the credit status parameters estimated worth pull means candidates concerned debtor is unable to pay loans.. System testing is done by comparing the results of the testing data by learning data in three scenarios with the decision that the data is valid at over 70% for all case scenarios. Moreover, in generated tree  and generate rules takes fairly quickly, which is no more than 15 minutes for each test scenario

An Exploration of Prospective Teachers' Learning of Clinical Interview Techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Groth, Randall E.; Bergner, Jennifer A.; Burgess, Claudia R.

2016-01-01

The present study followed four prospective teachers through the process of learning to interview during an undergraduate research project experience. Participants conducted and video recorded a series of interviews with children. They also carried out guided analyses of the videos and written artefacts from the interviews to formulate conjectures…

Computerized operator decision aids

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Long, A.B.

1984-01-01

This article explores the potential benefits associated with the use of computers in nuclear plants by the operating crew as an aid in making decisions. Pertinent findings are presented from recently completed projects to establish the context in which operating decisions have to be made. Key factors influencing the decision-making process itself are also identified. Safety parameter display systems, which are being implemented in various forms by the nuclear industry, are described within the context of decision making. In addition, relevant worldwide research and development activities are examined as potential enhancements to computerized operator decision aids to further improve plant safety and availability

CET exSim: mineral exploration experience via simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, Jason C.; Holden, Eun-Jung; Kovesi, Peter; McCuaig, T. Campbell; Hronsky, Jon

2013-08-01

Undercover mineral exploration is a challenging task as it requires understanding of subsurface geology by relying heavily on remotely sensed (i.e. geophysical) data. Cost-effective exploration is essential in order to increase the chance of success using finite budgets. This requires effective decision-making in both the process of selecting the optimum data collection methods and in the process of achieving accuracy during subsequent interpretation. Traditionally, developing the skills, behaviour and practices of exploration decision-making requires many years of experience through working on exploration projects under various geological settings, commodities and levels of available resources. This implies long periods of sub-optimal exploration decision-making, before the necessary experience has been successfully obtained. To address this critical industry issue, our ongoing research focuses on the development of the unique and novel e-learning environment, exSim, which simulates exploration scenarios where users can test their strategies and learn the consequences of their choices. This simulator provides an engaging platform for self-learning and experimentation in exploration decision strategies, providing a means to build experience more effectively. The exSim environment also provides a unique platform on which numerous scenarios and situations (e.g. deposit styles) can be simulated, potentially allowing the user to become virtually familiarised with a broader scope of exploration practices. Harnessing the power of computer simulation, visualisation and an intuitive graphical user interface, the simulator provides a way to assess the user's exploration decisions and subsequent interpretations. In this paper, we present the prototype functionalities in exSim including: simulation of geophysical surveys, follow-up drill testing and interpretation assistive tools.

Understanding Decision-Making in Specialized Domestic Violence Courts: Can Contemporary Theoretical Frameworks Help Guide These Decisions?

Science.gov (United States)

Pinchevsky, Gillian M

2016-05-22

This study fills a gap in the literature by exploring the utility of contemporary courtroom theoretical frameworks-uncertainty avoidance, causal attribution, and focal concerns-for explaining decision-making in specialized domestic violence courts. Using data from two specialized domestic violence courts, this study explores the predictors of prosecutorial and judicial decision-making and the extent to which these factors are congruent with theoretical frameworks often used in studies of court processing. Findings suggest that these theoretical frameworks only partially help explain decision-making in the courts under study. A discussion of the findings and implications for future research is provided. © The Author(s) 2016.

Does Gender Difference Impact Investment Decisions? Evidence from Oman

OpenAIRE

Jamil, Syed Ahsan; Khan, Khaliquzzaman

2016-01-01

Humans are believed to be rational decision makers and documentary evidence proves a significant heterogeneity across individuals when it comes to investment decision making and risk bearing. The study is an attempt to explore and understand the heterogeneity of investment decision when it comes to gender behavior with focus on women. The aim of this research is to explore role of gender in investment decision making and to identify the points of difference between the two genders with respec...

A quantitative approach to choose among multiple mutually exclusive decisions: comparative expected utility theory

OpenAIRE

Zhu, Pengyu

2018-01-01

Mutually exclusive decisions have been studied for decades. Many well-known decision theories have been defined to help people either to make rational decisions or to interpret people's behaviors, such as expected utility theory, regret theory, prospect theory, and so on. The paper argues that none of these decision theories are designed to provide practical, normative and quantitative approaches for multiple mutually exclusive decisions. Different decision-makers should naturally make differ...

Competence and Quality in Real-Life Decision Making

OpenAIRE

Geisler, Martin; Allwood, Carl Martin

2015-01-01

What distinguishes a competent decision maker and how should the issue of decision quality be approached in a real-life context? These questions were explored in three studies. In Study 1, using a web-based questionnaire and targeting a community sample, we investigated the relationships between objective and subjective indicators of real-life decision-making success. In Study 2 and 3, targeting two different samples of professionals, we explored if the prevalent cognitively oriented definiti...

Exploring older and younger adults' preferences for health information and participation in decision making using the Health Information Wants Questionnaire (HIWQ).

Science.gov (United States)

Xie, Bo; Wang, Mo; Feldman, Robert; Zhou, Le

2014-12-01

Existing measurements of patient preferences cover only a limited range of health information and participation in decision making. A broader approach is necessary to understand the breadth and variations in patient preferences. To explore the breadth and variances in patient preferences for health information and participation in decision making and to understand the relationship between age and each type of preference. The Health Information Wants Questionnaire (HIWQ) was administered during May-December 2010 to gather data about the information and corresponding decision-making autonomy participants would want in seven areas: diagnosis, treatment, laboratory tests, self-care, complementary and alternative medicine (CAM), psychosocial factors and health-care providers. A large state university, public libraries and senior centres in Maryland, USA. A convenience sample of 438 individuals, including 226 undergraduates (mean age = 20; SD = 2.15) and 212 community-dwelling older adults (mean age = 72; SD = 9.00). Ratings on the information and decision-making items of the HIWQ. Participants expressed higher levels of preference for information than for participation in decision making on six of seven subscales. On the psychosocial subscale, they expressed stronger desire for participation in decision making than for information. Age had no predictive effect on the overall preferences or specific preferences for information and participation in decision making about standard treatments and CAM. The predictive effect of age on the other types of preferences varied significantly. Physicians should take into account the breadth and variations in patient preferences. The predictive effect of age on patient preferences varied depending on the specific area of preferences. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Moral and Ethical Decision Making: Literature Review

Science.gov (United States)

2005-08-08

exploration and elaboration of both rational and intuitive decision making processes. In addition, emotions may also play an important role in...More specifically, it suggests that both rational and intuitive decision making processes are likely to play an important role in ethical decision ...and military literature related to ethical decision making more generally. Specifically, it suggests that both rational and intuitive decision making

Deliberative democracy in health care: current challenges and future prospects.

Science.gov (United States)

Safaei, Jalil

2015-01-01

There is a vast body of literature on deliberative, participative, or engaged democracy. In the area of health care there is a rapidly expanding literature on deliberative democracy as embodied in various notions of public engagement, shared decision-making (SDM), patient-centered care, and patient/care provider autonomy over the past few decades. It is useful to review such literature to get a sense of the challenges and prospects of introducing deliberative democracy in health care. This paper reviews the key literature on deliberative democracy and SDM in health care settings with a focus on identifying the main challenges of promoting this approach in health care, and recognizing its progress so far for mapping out its future prospects in the context of advanced countries. Several databases were searched to identify the literature pertinent to the subject of this study. A total of 56 key studies in English were identified and reviewed carefully for indications and evidence of challenges and/or promising avenues of promoting deliberative democracy in health care. Time pressure, lack of financial motivation, entrenched professional interests, informational imbalance, practical feasibility, cost, diversity of decisions, and contextual factors are noted as the main challenges. As for the prospects, greater clarity on conception of public engagement and policy objectives, real commitment of the authorities to public input, documenting evidence of the effectiveness of public involvement, development of patient decision supports, training of health professionals in SDM, and use of multiple and flexible methods of engagement leadership suited to specific contexts are the main findings in the reviewed literature. Seeking deliberative democracy in health care is both challenging and rewarding. The challenges have been more or less identified. However, its prospects are potentially significant. Such prospects are more likely to materialize if deliberative democracy is

Specific and Diversive Career Exploration during Late Adolescence

Science.gov (United States)

Porfeli, Erik J.; Skorikov, Vladimir B.

2010-01-01

The exploration literature suggests that career exploration may be separated into two distinct forms. Diversive career exploration involves learning broadly about the world of work and the self, whereas specific career exploration involves an in-depth investigation focused on aligning one's perceptions of self and career prospects. The goal of the…

Effects of category-specific costs on neural systems for perceptual decision-making

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fleming, Stephen M; Whiteley, Louise Emma; Hulme, Oliver James

2010-01-01

Perceptual judgments are often biased by prospective losses, leading to changes in decision criteria. Little is known about how and where sensory evidence and cost information interact in the brain to influence perceptual categorization. Here we show that prospective losses systematically bias...... functions enact a particular task set that is communicated to visual regions. Across subjects, greater shifts in decision criteria were associated with greater activation of the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC). Our results support a hypothesis that costs bias an intermediate representation between...... perception and action, expressed via general effects on frontal cortex, and selective effects on extrastriate cortex. These findings indicate that asymmetric costs may affect a neural implementation of perceptual decision making in a similar manner to changes in category expectation, constituting a step...

Prospect theory and body mass: characterizing psychological parameters for weight-related risk attitudes and weight-gain aversion.

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, Seung-Lark; Bruce, Amanda S

2015-01-01

We developed a novel decision-making paradigm that allows us to apply prospect theory in behavioral economics to body mass. 67 healthy young adults completed self-report measures and two decision-making tasks for weight-loss, as well as for monetary rewards. We estimated risk-related preference and loss aversion parameters for each individual, separately for weight-loss and monetary rewards choice data. Risk-seeking tendency for weight-loss was positively correlated with body mass index in individuals who desired to lose body weight, whereas the risk-seeking for momentary rewards was not. Risk-seeking for weight-loss was correlated to excessive body shape preoccupations, while aversion to weight-gain was correlated with self-reports of behavioral involvement for successful weight-loss. We demonstrated that prospect theory can be useful in explaining the decision-making process related to body mass. Applying prospect theory is expected to advance our understanding of decision-making mechanisms in obesity, which might prove helpful for improving healthy choices.

Prospect theory and body mass: Characterizing psychological parameters for weight-related risk attitudes and weight-gain aversion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seung-Lark eLim

2015-03-01

Full Text Available We developed a novel decision-making paradigm that allows us to apply prospect theory in behavioral economics to body mass. 67 healthy young adults completed self-report measures and two decision-making tasks for weight-loss, as well as for monetary rewards. We estimated risk-related preference and loss aversion parameters for each individual, separately for weight-loss and monetary rewards choice data. Risk-seeking tendency for weight-loss was positively correlated with body mass index in individuals who desired to lose body weight, whereas the risk-seeking for momentary rewards was not. Risk-seeking for weight-loss was correlated to excessive body shape preoccupations, while aversion to weight-gain was correlated with self-reports of behavioral involvement for successful weight-loss. We demonstrated that prospect theory can be useful in explaining the decision-making process related to body mass. Applying prospect theory is expected to advance our understanding of decision-making mechanisms in obesity, which might prove helpful for improving healthy choices.

Involvement of people with dementia in making decisions about their lives: a qualitative study that appraises shared decision-making concerning daycare.

Science.gov (United States)

Groen-van de Ven, Leontine; Smits, Carolien; de Graaff, Fuusje; Span, Marijke; Eefsting, Jan; Jukema, Jan; Vernooij-Dassen, Myrra

2017-11-12

To explore how people with dementia, their informal caregivers and their professionals participate in decision making about daycare and to develop a typology of participation trajectories. A qualitative study with a prospective, multiperspective design, based on 244 semistructured interviews, conducted during three interview rounds over the course of a year. Analysis was by means of content analysis and typology construction. Community settings and nursing homes in the Netherlands. 19 people with dementia, 36 of their informal caregivers and 38 of their professionals (including nurses, daycare employees and case managers). The participants' responses related to three critical points in the decision-making trajectory about daycare: (1) the initial positive or negative expectations of daycare; (2) negotiation about trying out daycare by promoting, resisting or attuning to others; and (3) trying daycare, which resulted in positive or negative reactions from people with dementia and led to a decision. The ways in which care networks proceeded through these three critical points resulted in a typology of participation trajectories, including (1) working together positively toward daycare, (2) bringing conflicting perspectives together toward trying daycare and (3) not reaching commitment to try daycare. Shared decision making with people with dementia is possible and requires and adapted process of decision making. Our results show that initial preferences based on information alone may change when people with dementia experience daycare. It is important to have a try-out period so that people with dementia can experience daycare without having to decide whether to continue it. Whereas shared decision making in general aims at moving from initial preferences to informed preferences, professionals should focus more on moving from initial preferences to experienced preferences for people with dementia. Professionals can play a crucial role in facilitating the

An expert system for uranium exploration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chhipa, V.K.; Sengupta, M.

1989-01-01

Artificial intelligence is an emerging technology in the field of computer application. Expert systems have been developed to imitate human intelligence and reasoning process. Expert systems have much scope of application in the decision making process in mineral exploration as such decisions are highly subjective and expert opinions are very helpful. This paper presents a small expert system to analyze the reasoning process in exploring for uranium deposits in sandstone

Exploration for fossil and nuclear fuels from orbital altitudes. [results of ERTS program for oil exploration

Science.gov (United States)

Short, N. M.

1974-01-01

Results from the ERTS program pertinent to exploration for oil, gas, and uranium are discussed. A review of achievements in relevant geological studies from ERTS, and a survey of accomplishments oriented towards exploration for energy sources are presented along with an evaluation of the prospects and limitations of the space platform approach to fuel exploration, and an examination of continuing programs designed to prove out the use of ERTS and other space system in exploring for fuel resources.

Studying abroad: Exploring factors influencing nursing students' decisions to apply for clinical placements in international settings.

Science.gov (United States)

Kent-Wilkinson, Arlene; Dietrich Leurer, Marie; Luimes, Janet; Ferguson, Linda; Murray, Lee

2015-08-01

For over 15 years the College of Nursing at the University of Saskatchewan has facilitated study abroad clinical placements in a number of countries to enhance student learning. Nursing students often find their study abroad experience to be a defining moment in their educational program, and in their personal and professional growth. The main objective of this research was to explore factors influencing nursing students' decisions to study abroad. A descriptive longitudinal design study was conducted using an online survey. The Study Abroad Survey was distributed to all undergraduate and graduate nursing students, in all years of all programs, at all sites of the College of Nursing, University of Saskatchewan in Saskatchewan, Canada. A total of 1058 nursing students registered in the 2013-2014 academic year were surveyed. The data were collected using an online survey administered by Campus Labs™ (2014). Students indicated that their interest in study abroad international experiences was high (84%), with many perceived benefits, but barriers to participation were also high for these students. Financial barriers topped the list (71%), followed by family responsibilities (30%) and job obligations (23%). The research highlights the factors behind student decision making related to international placements, and provides the basis for improvements to the College of Nursing's International Study Abroad Program (ISAP). Previous travel and international service learning, resulting in increased perceived value of a study abroad experience may prove to be the more significant factor influencing decision making, rather than financial barrier. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Marketing Authorization Procedures for Advanced Cancer Drugs: Exploring the Views of Patients, Oncologists, Healthcare Decision Makers, and Citizens in France.

Science.gov (United States)

Protiére, Christel; Baker, Rachel; Genre, Dominique; Goncalves, Anthony; Viens, Patrice

2017-07-01

The past decades have seen advances in cancer treatments in terms of toxicity and side effects but progress in the treatment of advanced cancer has been modest. New drugs have emerged improving progression free survival but with little impact on overall survival, raising questions about the criteria on which to base decisions to grant marketing authorizations and about the authorization procedure itself. For decisions to be fair, transparent and accountable, it is necessary to consider the views of those with relevant expertise and experience. We conducted a Q-study to explore the views of a range of stakeholders in France, involving: 54 patients (18 months after diagnosis); 50 members of the general population; 27 oncologists; 19 healthcare decision makers; and 2 individuals from the pharmaceutical industry. Three viewpoints emerged, focussing on different dimensions entitled: 1) 'Quality of life (QoL), opportunity cost and participative democracy'; 2)'QoL and patient-centeredness'; and 3) 'Length of life'. Respondents from all groups were associated with each viewpoint, except for healthcare decision makers, who were only associated with the first one. Our results highlight plurality in the views of stakeholders, emphasize the need for transparency in decision making processes, and illustrate the importance of a re-evaluation of treatments for all 3 viewpoints. In the context of advanced cancer, our results suggest that QoL should be more prominent amongst authorization criteria, as it is a concern for 2 of the 3 viewpoints.

Deriving optimal exploration target zones on mineral prospectivity maps

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Debba, Pravesh

2008-08-01

Full Text Available into an objective function in simulated annealing in order to derive a set of optimal exploration focal points. Each optimal exploration focal point represents a pixel or location within a circular neighborhood of pixels with high posterior probability of mineral...

Risky decision-making in children with and without ADHD: A prospective study.

Science.gov (United States)

Humphreys, Kathryn L; Tottenham, Nim; Lee, Steve S

2018-02-01

Learning from past decisions can enhance successful decision-making. It is unclear whether difficulties in learning from experience may contribute to risky decision-making, which may be altered among individuals with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). This study follows 192 children with and without ADHD aged 5 to 10 years for approximately 2.5 years and examines their risky decision-making using the Balloon Emotional Learning Task (BELT), a computerized assessment of sequential risky decision-making in which participants pump up a series of virtual balloons for points. The BELT contains three task conditions: one with a variable explosion point, one with a stable and early explosion point, and one with a stable and late explosion point. These conditions may be learned via experience on the task. Contrary to expectations, ADHD status was not found to be related to greater risk-taking on the BELT, and among younger children ADHD status is in fact associated with reduced risk-taking. In addition, the typically-developing children without ADHD showed significant learning-related gains on both stable task conditions. However, the children with ADHD demonstrated learning on the condition with a stable and early explosion point, but not on the condition with the stable and late explosion point, in which more pumps are required before learning when the balloon will explode. Learning during decision-making may be more difficult for children with ADHD. Because adapting to changing environmental demands requires the use of feedback to guide future behavior, negative outcomes associated with childhood ADHD may partially reflect difficulties in learning from experience.

Licensing Surrogate Decision-Makers.

Science.gov (United States)

Rosoff, Philip M

2017-06-01

As medical technology continues to improve, more people will live longer lives with multiple chronic illnesses with increasing cumulative debilitation, including cognitive dysfunction. Combined with the aging of society in most developed countries, an ever-growing number of patients will require surrogate decision-makers. While advance care planning by patients still capable of expressing their preferences about medical interventions and end-of-life care can improve the quality and accuracy of surrogate decisions, this is often not the case, not infrequently leading to demands for ineffective, inappropriate and prolonged interventions. In 1980 LaFollette called for the licensing of prospective parents, basing his argument on the harm they can do to vulnerable people (children). In this paper, I apply his arguments to surrogate decision-makers for cognitively incapacitated patients, rhetorically suggesting that we require potential surrogates to qualify for this position by demonstrating their ability to make reasonable and rational decisions for others. I employ this theoretical approach to argue that the loose criteria by which we authorize surrogates' generally unchallenged power should be reconsidered.

Contralateral prophylactic mastectomy: A qualitative approach to exploring the decision making process.

Science.gov (United States)

Greener, Judith R; Bass, Sarah Bauerle; Lepore, Stephen J

2018-01-01

The proportion of women with unilateral breast cancer and no familial or genetic risk factors who elect contralateral prophylactic mastectomy (CPM) has grown dramatically, even in the absence of clear data demonstrating improved outcomes. To further extend the literature that addresses treatment decision-making, qualitative interviews were conducted with eleven women who considered CPM. A social ecological model of breast cancer treatment decision-making provided the conceptual framework, and grounded theory was used to identify the cognitive, psychosocial, and emotional influences motivating treatment choice. This research identified five themes that give context to women's decision-making experience: (1) variability in physician communication, (2) immediacy of the decision, (3) meaning of being proactive about treatment, (4) meaning of risk, and (5) women's relationship with their breasts. The results suggest that greater emphasis should be placed on a more nuanced understanding of patients' emotional reaction to breast cancer and managing the decision-making environment.

Decision Simulation Technique (DST) as a scanning tool for exploring and explicating sustainability issues in transport decision making

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jeppesen, Sara Lise

2009-01-01

This paper places focus on explicit consideration of sustainability issues in transport decision making by presenting and using a developed “Decision Simulation Technique” (DST). This technique can be used by an analyst to ‘scan’ a transport planning problem with regard to what in DST terms...... is called a sustainability strategy. This scanning can serve the purpose of informing a group of decision makers before they actually have to deal with, for example, the choice among a number of alternatives that have all been formulated as being relevant. The main focus of the paper is to illustrate how...

Uranium exploration planning and strategy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, A.Y.; Tauchid, M.

1991-01-01

A country may decide to begin uranium exploration for any of the following three reasons: 1. To meet the needs of a domestic nuclear power programme; 2. To supply uranium as a commodity to the world market in order to earn foreign exchange; 3. To acquire national information on the country's mineral resource planning. In any of these cases, a country must make some basic decisions regarding the means and modes whereby the uranium exploration will be carried out - by national organizations exclusively; by state organizations in joint venture with outside interests by foreign interests under the control of national regulations. Most uranium exploration is carried out following an exploration strategy in which the programme is divided into a series of steps or stages. Each of the phases is designed to eliminate areas of low potential to contain uranium deposits, while focusing attention on areas of higher potential that will be explored in greater detail at higher cost in the subsequent phase. The methods used in each phase are selected to provide the maximum information at the minimum cost so that at the end of each phase a decision can be made whether to continue to the next phase of stop. Because uranium exploration is a high cost high risk activity, governments must make decisions at the outset whether they wish to carry our the work alone and whether they can support the costs involved, or whether they wish to attract foreign investors to help absorb the costs and therefore the risks. In either case, major policy decisions are required to be made to establish the legal and fiscal environment in which the programm will be carried out. (author). 4 refs, 4 figs

Russian Planetary Exploration History, Development, Legacy, Prospects

CERN Document Server

Harvey, Brian

2007-01-01

Russia’s accomplishments in planetary space exploration were not achieved easily. Formerly, the USSR experienced frustration in trying to tame unreliable Molniya and Proton upper stages and in tracking spacecraft over long distances. This book will assess the scientific haul of data from the Venus and Mars missions and look at the engineering approaches. The USSR developed several generations of planetary probes: from MV and Zond to the Phobos type. The engineering techniques used and the science packages are examined, as well as the nature of the difficulties encountered which ruined several missions. The programme’s scientific and engineering legacy is also addressed, as well as its role within the Soviet space programme as a whole. Brian Harvey concludes by looking forward to future Russian planetary exploration (e.g Phobos Grunt sample return mission). Several plans have been considered and may, with a restoration of funding, come to fruition. Soviet studies of deep space and Mars missions (e.g. TMK, ...

Decision making regarding multifetal reduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Maifeld, Michelle; Hahn, Sandra; Titler, Marita G; Mullen, Meredithe

2003-01-01

To identify salient variables that influence decision making regarding multifetal reduction (MFR) and describe their effect on individuals over time. Prospective, exploratory, descriptive design, using qualitative and quantitative methods. Midwestern tertiary care center. A convenience sample of 11 consecutive consenting couples with triplet or higher-order pregnancies who elected to undergo MFR. Semistructured audiotaped telephone interviews at three points: (a) 2 weeks postreduction, (b) 6 weeks postpartum, and (c) 6 months postpartum; a demographic and marital adjustment questionnaire. Themes identified by content analysis and compared via matrix analysis between males and females and at three points in time; trends in marital adjustment. Dominant variables influencing MFR decision making were risks associated with higher-order pregnancies and preservation of infants' and mothers' health. Most participants identified emotional issues, including moral and ethical dilemmas, as the most difficult aspect of reduction. Over time, participants reported feeling more positive about their decision; nonetheless, negative feelings emerged progressively. Risk aversion favored MFR decision making. Yet, both making and living with the decision were emotionally difficult for this sample. Interventions are needed to assist couples with this decision and its consequences.

Geophysical exploration of the Kalahari Suture Zone

Science.gov (United States)

Brett, J. S.; Mason, R.; Smith, P. H.

2000-04-01

Fancamp Resources Limited of Montreal, Canada, commenced exploration of the Kalahari Suture Zone in southwest Botswana in 1996, following the interpretation of airborne magnetic surveys covering 400 km of strike along the Kalahari Suture Zone. Initial focus was on mafic/ultramafic intrusions associated with the Tshane Complex as potential targets for CuNiPGM mineralization, but these targets are now considered to be too deeply buried (> 700 m) to be of economic significance at this time. The exploration focus has been redirected to several prospective large coincident magnetic/gravity anomalies. These are considered prospective targets for Olympic Dam-type CuCo mineralisation associated with alkaline intrusive complexes, and/or NiCuCoPGM mineralisation associated with basic intrusive complexes. The two most important and prospective targets are the so-called 'Great Red Spot' and Tsetseng Complex. Additional ground geophysical surveys and deep drilling are planned for the next phase of exploration. These large targets are of high priority and represent tremendous potential for mineral development in the sparsely populated area of western Botswana.

"I don't want to take chances.": A qualitative exploration of surgical decision making in young breast cancer survivors.

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenberg, Shoshana M; Greaney, Mary L; Patenaude, Andrea F; Sepucha, Karen R; Meyer, Meghan E; Partridge, Ann H

2018-06-01

Young women with unilateral breast cancer are increasingly choosing contralateral prophylactic mastectomy (CPM), despite its limited medical benefit for most women. The purpose of this study was to better understand this choice through a qualitative exploration of surgical decision-making in young survivors, including how issues particular to younger women affected their decision and the post-surgical experience. Women age ≤ 40 years with stage 0 to III breast cancer, 1 to 3 years from diagnosis who had undergone breast cancer surgery were recruited to participate. Four focus groups were conducted: 2 with women who had bilateral mastectomy and 2 with women who kept their contralateral breast. Focus groups were recorded and transcribed with identifiers removed. Emergent themes were identified by thematic content analysis using NVivo 11. Of the 20 participants, median age at diagnosis was 37 years. Emergent themes were categorized into the following domains: (1) emotions/feelings surrounding surgery/decision about surgery; (2) factors affecting the decision; (3) communication and interaction with the healthcare team; (4) impact on post-surgical life and recovery; and (5) support needs. Young women who chose CPM often were concerned about a future breast event, despite this low risk, suggesting some gain peace of mind by choosing CPM. Young survivors also had many physical and emotional concerns after surgery for which they did not always feel prepared. Informational resources and decision aids may enhance patient-doctor communication and help young survivors better understand risk and manage expectations surrounding short and longer-term physical and emotional effects after surgery. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Using spatial context to support prospective memory in simulated air traffic control.

Science.gov (United States)

Loft, Shayne; Finnerty, Dannielle; Remington, Roger W

2011-12-01

The aim was to examine whether prospective memory error and response costs to ongoing tasks in an air traffic control simulation could be reduced by providing spatial context. Prospective memory refers to remembering to perform an intended action at an appropriate point in the future. Failures of prospective memory can occur in air traffic control. For this study, three conditions of participants performed an air traffic control task that required them to accept and hand off aircraft and to prevent conflicts. The prospective memory task required participants to remember to press an alternative key rather than the routine key when accepting target aircraft. A red line separated the display into upper and lower regions. Participants in the context condition were told that the prospective memory instruction would apply only to aircraft approaching from one region (upper or lower). Those in the standard condition were not provided this information. In the control condition, participants did not have to perform the prospective memory task. In the context condition, participants made fewer prospective memory errors than did those in the standard condition and made faster acceptance decisions for aircraft approaching from irrelevant compared with relevant regions. Costs to hand-off decision time were also reduced in the context condition. Spatial context provided no benefit to conflict detection. Participants could partially localize their allocation of attentional resources to the prospective memory task to relevant display regions. The findings are potentially applicable to air traffic control, whereby regularities in airspace structure and standard traffic flows allow controllers to anticipate the location of specific air traffic events.

PREMISES OF BEHAVIORAL FINANCE IN RATIONAL DECISION-MAKING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laurentiu Droj

2016-07-01

Full Text Available One cannot separate decision from psychology of human being. People see world by perception and this leads to various ways of understanding even the most concrete or certain things. Financial literature reflects the subjective nature of human being in making decisions by classifying decision-making process into being 'rationally' oriented or the opposite, 'irrational', according to individual’s attitude towards risk – 'appetite' or 'aversion'. Process of understanding risk associated with future financial returns implies attaching mental probabilities to it. This activity is always affected by human nature of agents that take financial decisions, therefore bearing risk. Psychological factors such as perception, framing effect, information asymmetry, irrationality, emotions are accompanying every financial decision. Paper intends to study the direct relationship between psychological traits of a human being playing the role of a decisional agent in financial context. Financial decisions are always accompanied by the notion of probability in defining what we call as 'expected' returns that translate into risk associated with financial investments. Empirical analysis done on the financial market reflects that agents use their perception on risk of gaining or losing from a certain financial transaction to decide whether to invest or not. The notion of 'expected utility' has been complementary used with the one of 'prospect value' as financial literature evolved over time and researchers brought new insights into the mechanism of financial decision. This paper studies direct relationship between psychological traits of a human being according to classical and rational decision-making process in the light of the prospect theory and risk attitude regarding financial outcome of decisions. In this sense, an econometric model is tested on the international financial market in order to find out what kind of subjective factors lie hidden in an investor

An exploration of pregnant teenagers' views of the future and their decisions to continue or terminate their pregnancy: implications for nursing care.

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, Emily R; Glover, Lesley; Alexander, Tim

2014-09-01

To explore teenagers' views of the future in relation to their choices to continue or terminate pregnancy. Despite recent decreases in the numbers of teenage pregnancies, across the world, the teenage pregnancy rate remains high. Consideration of views of the future (future orientation) appears to play an important part in teenage girls' decisions to continue with pregnancy. To date, no study has explored this in teenage pregnant girls at the time they make their decision to continue with or terminate their pregnancy. Cross-sectional mixed methods design. Three groups were included: termination of pregnancy (n = 19), antenatal (n = 9) and never pregnant (n = 23). Participants were 13-18 years old. The termination of pregnancy and antenatal groups were interviewed, and the never pregnant group completed postal questionnaires. Groups differed in individual aspects of future orientation, that is, education, career and family, and reasons for pregnancy resolution choice. The termination group had more clearly developed and longer-term plans for the future with a focus on career. The never pregnant group shared aspects of their future orientation with both the antenatal and termination of pregnancy groups. The impact of negative discourses about teenage pregnancy from others was identified as a significant issue. How pregnant teenage girls view the future has a relationship with their decision to terminate or continue with their pregnancy. The findings suggest that working with teenage girls to clarify their views of the future may be useful both in preventing future unwanted pregnancy and in supporting teenagers in making pregnancy decisions. Supporting pregnant teenagers in distancing themselves from negative stereotypes of teenage mothers may also be beneficial. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Proxy decision making and dementia: Using Construal Level Theory to analyse the thoughts of decision makers.

Science.gov (United States)

Convey, Helen; Holt, Janet; Summers, Barbara

2018-03-08

This study explored the feasibility of using Construal Level Theory to analyse proxy decision maker thinking about a hypothetical ethical dilemma, relating to a person who has dementia. Proxy decision makers make decisions on behalf of individuals who are living with dementia when dementia affects that individual's decision making ability. Ethical dilemmas arise because there is a need to balance the individual's past and contemporary values and views. Understanding of how proxy decision makers respond is incomplete. Construal Level Theory contends that individuals imagine reactions and make predications about the future by crossing psychological distance. This involves abstract thinking, giving meaning to decisions. There is no empirical evidence of Construal Level Theory being used to analyse proxy decision maker thinking. Exploring the feasibility of using Construal Level Theory to understand dementia carer thinking regarding proxy decisions may provide insights which inform the support given. Descriptive qualitative research with semi-structured interviews. Seven participants were interviewed using a hypothetical dementia care scenario in February 2016. Interview transcripts were analysed for themes. Construal Level Theory was applied to analyse participant responses within themes using the Linguistic Category Model. Participants travelled across psychological distance, using abstract thinking to clarify goals and provide a basis for decisions. When thinking concretely participants established boundaries regarding the ethical dilemma. Construal Level Theory gives insight into proxy decision maker thinking and the levels of abstraction used. Understanding what dementia carers think about when making proxy decisions may help nurses to understand their perspectives and to provide appropriate support. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation for cumulative prospect theory

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nilsson, H.; Rieskamp, J.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

2011-01-01

Cumulative prospect theory (CPT Tversky & Kahneman, 1992) has provided one of the most influential accounts of how people make decisions under risk. CPT is a formal model with parameters that quantify psychological processes such as loss aversion, subjective values of gains and losses, and

The current situation of uranium resources exploration in East China: Problems, thought and countermeasure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

He Xiaomei; Mao Mengcai

2014-01-01

Based on analyzing the current situation of uranium resources and exploration effort in East China, the main existing problems, technical thought and countermeasure for the future exploration in East China are discussed in this paper. The degree of both uranium exploration and study in East China is relatively high, philosophy of scientific mineral-prospecting should be established in the new round of mineral prospecting. Under guidance of metallogenic theory of large mineralization cluster area and uranium metallogenic theory of multi-sources, previous data and research achievement should be analyzed and summarized. With the help of metallogenic model, useful methods and means should be applied to set up exploration model in order to realize news phase of model exploration, comprehensive exploration, 3D exploration and quantitative exploration. Efficiency of exploration of uranium resources should be strugglingly increased. High profitable uranium resources will be actively found with rich, shallow, near and easy features. The prospecting targets and strategy reserves of uranium resources will be increased in East China. (authors)

Unleashing Student Potential through Democratic Participation in Decision Making: Controversies and Prospects

Science.gov (United States)

Nthontho, Maitumeleng Albertina

2017-01-01

The idea of students participating in decisions that affect them as individuals, organisations and/or communities is recent and urgent. The participation of students in decision making has gained global support, yet it does not seem to be regarded as a main vehicle for promoting democracy in educational institutions. This conceptual paper aims at…

Uranium prospection methods illustrated with examples

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Valsardieu, C.

1985-01-01

Uranium exploration methods are briefly reviewed: aerial (radiometric, spectrometric), surface (mapping, radiometric, geophysical, geochemical), sub-surface (well logging, boring) and mining methods in the different steps of a mine project: preliminary studies, general prospecting, detailed prospecting deposit area and deposit estimation. Choice of methods depends strongly on geographic and geologic environment. Three examples are given concerning: an intragranitic deposit Limousin (France), a deposit spatially related to a discordance Athabasca (Canada) and a sedimentary deposit Manyingee (Western Australia) [fr

Error affect inoculation for a complex decision-making task.

Science.gov (United States)

Tabernero, Carmen; Wood, Robert E

2009-05-01

Individuals bring knowledge, implicit theories, and goal orientations to group meetings. Group decisions arise out of the exchange of these orientations. This research explores how a trainee's exploratory and deliberate process (an incremental theory and learning goal orientation) impacts the effectiveness of individual and group decision-making processes. The effectiveness of this training program is compared with another program that included error affect inoculation (EAI). Subjects were 40 Spanish Policemen in a training course. They were distributed in two training conditions for an individual and group decision-making task. In one condition, individuals received the Self-Guided Exploration plus Deliberation Process instructions, which emphasised exploring the options and testing hypotheses. In the other condition, individuals also received instructions based on Error Affect Inoculation (EAI), which emphasised positive affective reactions to errors and mistakes when making decisions. Results show that the quality of decisions increases when the groups share their reasoning. The AIE intervention promotes sharing information, flexible initial viewpoints, and improving the quality of group decisions. Implications and future directions are discussed.

18F-FDG PET/CT in the characterization and surgical decision concerning adrenal masses: a prospective multicentre evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ansquer, Catherine; Scigliano, Sonia; Mirallie, Eric; Taieb, David; Brunaud, Laurent; Sebag, Frederic; Leux, Christophe; Drui, Delphine; Dupas, Benoit; Renaudin, Karine; Kraeber-Bodere, Francoise

2010-01-01

This prospective multicentre study assesses the usefulness of FDG PET/CT in characterizing and making the therapeutic decision concerning adrenal tumours that are suspicious or indeterminate in nature after conventional examinations (CE). Seventy-eight patients (37 men, 41 women, 81 adrenal lesions) underwent FDG PET/CT after CE including CT scan, biological tests and optionally 131 I-metaiodobenzylguanidine (MIBG) and/or 131 I-norcholesterol scans. FDG adrenal uptake exceeding that of the liver was considered positive. PET results were not decisive. Surgery was discussed when at least one of the following criteria was found during CE: size >3 cm, spontaneous attenuation value >10 HU, heterogeneous aspect, abnormal MIBG or norcholesterol scan or hormonal hypersecretion. Following the gold standard (histology analysis or ≥9 months follow-up), 49 lesions potentially qualified for surgery (malignant = 27, benign secreting = 22) and 32 benign non-secreting lesions did not. PET was negative in 97% of non-surgical lesions and positive in 73% of potentially surgical ones which included all the malignant lesions, except 3 renal cell metastases, and 12 of 22 benign secreting lesions. The negative predictive value for malignancy was 93% (41/44) and positive predictive value for detecting surgical lesions was 97% (36/37). A high FDG uptake (maximum standardized uptake value ≥ 10) was highly predictive of malignancy. Adrenal FDG uptake is a good indicator of malignancy and/or of secreting lesions and should lead one to discuss surgery. If there is no prior history of poorly FDG-avid cancer, the absence of FDG uptake should avoid unnecessary removal of benign adrenal lesions. (orig.)

Decision aids for familial breast cancer: exploring women's views using focus groups.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rapport, F.; Iredale, R.; Jones, W.; Sivell, S.; Edwards, A.; Gray, J.; Elwyn, G.

2006-01-01

BACKGROUND: There is increasing need for accessible information about familial breast cancer for those facing complex decisions around genetic testing, screening and treatment. Information currently includes leaflets and computerized decision aids, offering interactive interfaces to clarify complex

Prospective analysis. Nuclear deterrence in 2030; Essai de prospective. La dissuasion nucleaire en 2030

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tertrais, B

2006-12-15

This study is a prospective analysis of the long-term future of nuclear weapons, and particularly the future of French nuclear deterrence after 2015. The selected time period is 2025-2030. The principal objective is to reflect on what the nuclear world might look like during the first part of the 21 st century, beyond the modernization decisions already planned or envisaged, and to draw conclusions for the future of the French deterrent. (author)

Markov Decision Process Measurement Model.

Science.gov (United States)

LaMar, Michelle M

2018-03-01

Within-task actions can provide additional information on student competencies but are challenging to model. This paper explores the potential of using a cognitive model for decision making, the Markov decision process, to provide a mapping between within-task actions and latent traits of interest. Psychometric properties of the model are explored, and simulation studies report on parameter recovery within the context of a simple strategy game. The model is then applied to empirical data from an educational game. Estimates from the model are found to correlate more strongly with posttest results than a partial-credit IRT model based on outcome data alone.

Exploring dietitians' salient beliefs about shared decision-making behaviors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gagnon Marie-Pierre

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Shared decision making (SDM, a process by which health professionals and patients go through the decision-making process together to agree on treatment, is a promising strategy for promoting diet-related decisions that are informed and value based and to which patients adhere well. The objective of the present study was to identify dietitians' salient beliefs regarding their exercise of two behaviors during the clinical encounter, both of which have been deemed essential for SDM to take place: (1 presenting patients with all dietary treatment options for a given health condition and (2 helping patients clarify their values and preferences regarding the options. Methods Twenty-one dietitians were allocated to four focus groups. Facilitators conducted the focus groups using a semistructured interview guide based on the Theory of Planned Behavior. Discussions were audiotaped, transcribed verbatim, coded, and analyzed with NVivo8 (QSR International, Cambridge, MA software. Results Most participants stated that better patient adherence to treatment was an advantage of adopting the two SDM behaviors. Dietitians identified patients, physicians, and the multidisciplinary team as normative referents who would approve or disapprove of their adoption of the SDM behaviors. The most often reported barriers and facilitators for the behaviors concerned patients' characteristics, patients' clinical situation, and time. Conclusions The implementation of SDM in nutrition clinical practice can be guided by addressing dietitians' salient beliefs. Identifying these beliefs also provides the theoretical framework needed for developing a quantitative survey questionnaire to further study the determinants of dietitians' adoption of SDM behaviors.

The relationship between burnout and risk-taking in workplace decision-making and decision-making style

OpenAIRE

Michailidis, E; Banks, AP

2016-01-01

The study aimed to investigate what type of decision styles are exhibited by employees who experience burnout. Using a Work Risk Inventory (WRI), developed for this study, which included generic workplace scenarios, it was also explored whether employees experiencing burnout take more risky decisions. Risk was conceptualised as the adoption of threatening decisions towards one’s reputation at work, job performance and job security. The mediating effect of the likelihood and seriousness of the...

Exploring risk profiles and emergency frequency of purchasers and non-purchasers of personal emergency alarms: a prospective cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

De San Miguel, Kristen; Lewin, Gill; Burton, Elissa; Toye, Christine; Boldy, Duncan; Howat, Peter

2015-10-27

Personal alarms support independent living and have the potential to reduce serious consequences after a fall or during a medical emergency. While some Australian states have government funded personal alarm programs, others do not; but user-pays services are available. Although several studies have examined the profiles of alarm users, little is known about the risk profile of non-users. Specifically, whether there are "at risk" individuals who are unable, or choose not to purchase a service, who experience a home-based emergency in which an alarm could have mitigated an adverse outcome. This study aimed to describe the 'risk profile' of purchasers and non-purchasers of alarms; explore the reasons behind the decision to purchase or not to purchase and identify how often emergency assistance was needed and why. Purchasers and non-purchasers were followed for one year in this prospective cohort study. Demographic, decision-making and risk factor data were collected at an initial face-to-face interview, while information about emergencies was collected by monthly calls. One hundred and fifty-seven purchasers and sixty-five non-purchasers completed the study. The risk profiles between the groups were similar in terms of gender, living arrangements, fall history and medical conditions. Purchasers (Mean = 82.6 years) were significantly older than non-purchasers (Mean = 79.3 years), (t(220) = -3.38, p = 0.000) and more functionally dependent on the IADL (z = -2.57, p = 0.010) and ADL (z = -2.45 p = 0.014) function scores. Non-purchasers (Mean = 8.04, SD = 3.57) were more socially isolated with significantly fewer family networks than purchasers (Mean = 9.46, SD = 3.25) (t(220) = -2.86, p = 0.005). Both groups experienced similarly high numbers of emergencies, 38.2 % of purchasers and 41.5 % of non-purchasers had at least one emergency where an alarm could have assisted. Main reasons for non-purchase were: cost (77 %), limited alarm range (51 %), no need (39 %) and lack

Bayesian framework for managing preferences in decision-making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maes, Marc A.; Faber, Michael H.

2006-01-01

A rational decision-making process does not exclude the possibility of decision makers expressing different preferences and disagreeing regarding the effects of consequences and optimal course of actions. This point of view is explored in depth in this paper. A framework is developed that includes several decision makers (instead of just one) and allows for the variability of preferences among these decision makers. The information provided by the varying opinions of decision makers can be used to optimize our own decision-making. To achieve this, likelihood functions are developed for stated preferences among both discrete and continuous alternatives, and stated preference rankings of alternatives. Two applications are pursued: the optimization of the lifecycle utility of a structural system subject to consequences of failure proportional to the intensity of hazards exceeding a variable threshold, and to follow-up consequences. Also, the problem of tight decisions or close calls is investigated in order to explore the efficiency of a Bayesian approach using stated preferences and stated rankings

The Pashtun behavior economy an analysis of decision making in tribal society

OpenAIRE

Holton, Jeremy W.

2011-01-01

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Little scholarship exists regarding the ways members of conflict societies think about the economic decisions they face, and what information they value as relevant to those decisions. The literature of the emerging field of behavior economics suggest that in uncertain environments, considerable weight may be given to identity and culture factors to make decisions that will affect personal safety, income prospects and self-fulfillment...

Effects of category-specific costs on neural systems for perceptual decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Fleming, Stephen M; Whiteley, Louise; Hulme, Oliver J; Sahani, Maneesh; Dolan, Raymond J

2010-06-01

Perceptual judgments are often biased by prospective losses, leading to changes in decision criteria. Little is known about how and where sensory evidence and cost information interact in the brain to influence perceptual categorization. Here we show that prospective losses systematically bias the perception of noisy face-house images. Asymmetries in category-specific cost were associated with enhanced blood-oxygen-level-dependent signal in a frontoparietal network. We observed selective activation of parahippocampal gyrus for changes in category-specific cost in keeping with the hypothesis that loss functions enact a particular task set that is communicated to visual regions. Across subjects, greater shifts in decision criteria were associated with greater activation of the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC). Our results support a hypothesis that costs bias an intermediate representation between perception and action, expressed via general effects on frontal cortex, and selective effects on extrastriate cortex. These findings indicate that asymmetric costs may affect a neural implementation of perceptual decision making in a similar manner to changes in category expectation, constituting a step toward accounting for how prospective losses are flexibly integrated with sensory evidence in the brain.

Training course on radiometric prospecting techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1979-01-01

A training course on radiometric prospecting techniques was presented by the Atomic Energy Board in collaboration with the South African Geophysical Association and the Geological Society of South Africa. Various aspects related to uranium prospecting were discussed e.g. the uranium supply and demand position, the basic physics of radioactivity, uranium geochemistry, mineralogy and mobility, the instrumentation and techniques used in uranium exploration, for example, borehole logging, radon emanometry and airborne radiometric surveys and also data processing and interpretation methods

Application of radio-geochemical exploration to investigation on geo-ecological environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ye Qingsen

2000-01-01

Taking investigation on radon hazards and natural radioactivity as examples, the author expounds the prospects of the application of radio-geochemical exploration to the investigation on geo-ecological environment. It is especially emphasized that the methods of radio-geochemical exploration can not be only widely applied in the field of traditional radio-geological prospecting but also play an important role in the investigation on geo-ecological environment

Exploring PCK ability of prospective science teachers in reflective learning on heat and transfer

Science.gov (United States)

Nurmatin, S.; Rustaman, N. Y.

2016-02-01

Learning can be planned by the person him/herself when he or she tries to reflect his/her learning. A study involving prospective science teachers in junior secondary schools was carried out to analyze their ability on Pedagogical Content Knowledge (PCK) in reflective learning after teaching practice. The study was focused especially in creating Pedagogical and Professional Repertoires (PaP-eRs) as part of resource-folios. PaP-eRs as a narrative writing in the learning activities are created by prospective science teachers after lesson plan implementation. Making the narrative writing is intended that prospective science teachers can reflect their learning in teaching. Research subjects are six prospective science teachers who are implementing "Program Pengalaman Lapangan" (PPL) in two junior secondary schools in Bandung, West Java, Indonesia. All of them were assigned by supervisor teachers to teach VII grade students on certain topic "heat and its transfer". Instruments used as a means of collecting data in this study is PaP-eRs. Collected PaP-eRs were then analyzed using PaP-eRs analysis format as instruments for analysis. The result of analyzing PaP-eRs indicates that learning activities, which narrated, involve initial activities, core activities and final activities. However, any activity, which is narrated just superficial as its big line so the narration cannot be, used as reflective learning. It indicates that PCK ability of prospective science teachers in creating narrative writing (PaP-eRs) for reflective learning is still low.

Collective animal decisions: preference conflict and decision accuracy.

Science.gov (United States)

Conradt, Larissa

2013-12-06

Social animals frequently share decisions that involve uncertainty and conflict. It has been suggested that conflict can enhance decision accuracy. In order to judge the practical relevance of such a suggestion, it is necessary to explore how general such findings are. Using a model, I examine whether conflicts between animals in a group with respect to preferences for avoiding false positives versus avoiding false negatives could, in principle, enhance the accuracy of collective decisions. I found that decision accuracy nearly always peaked when there was maximum conflict in groups in which individuals had different preferences. However, groups with no preferences were usually even more accurate. Furthermore, a relatively slight skew towards more animals with a preference for avoiding false negatives decreased the rate of expected false negatives versus false positives considerably (and vice versa), while resulting in only a small loss of decision accuracy. I conclude that in ecological situations in which decision accuracy is crucial for fitness and survival, animals cannot 'afford' preferences with respect to avoiding false positives versus false negatives. When decision accuracy is less crucial, animals might have such preferences. A slight skew in the number of animals with different preferences will result in the group avoiding that type of error more that the majority of group members prefers to avoid. The model also indicated that knowing the average success rate ('base rate') of a decision option can be very misleading, and that animals should ignore such base rates unless further information is available.

Difficult Decisions: A Qualitative Exploration of the Statistical Decision Making Process from the Perspectives of Psychology Students and Academics.

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, Peter J; Dorozenko, Kate P; Roberts, Lynne D

2016-01-01

Quantitative research methods are essential to the development of professional competence in psychology. They are also an area of weakness for many students. In particular, students are known to struggle with the skill of selecting quantitative analytical strategies appropriate for common research questions, hypotheses and data types. To begin understanding this apparent deficit, we presented nine psychology undergraduates (who had all completed at least one quantitative methods course) with brief research vignettes, and asked them to explicate the process they would follow to identify an appropriate statistical technique for each. Thematic analysis revealed that all participants found this task challenging, and even those who had completed several research methods courses struggled to articulate how they would approach the vignettes on more than a very superficial and intuitive level. While some students recognized that there is a systematic decision making process that can be followed, none could describe it clearly or completely. We then presented the same vignettes to 10 psychology academics with particular expertise in conducting research and/or research methods instruction. Predictably, these "experts" were able to describe a far more systematic, comprehensive, flexible, and nuanced approach to statistical decision making, which begins early in the research process, and pays consideration to multiple contextual factors. They were sensitive to the challenges that students experience when making statistical decisions, which they attributed partially to how research methods and statistics are commonly taught. This sensitivity was reflected in their pedagogic practices. When asked to consider the format and features of an aid that could facilitate the statistical decision making process, both groups expressed a preference for an accessible, comprehensive and reputable resource that follows a basic decision tree logic. For the academics in particular, this aid

Decision analysis for the exploration of gas reserves: merging todim and thor

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carlos Francisco Simões Gomes

2010-12-01

Full Text Available This article approaches the problem of selecting the non-dominated alternative for the destination of the natural gas reserves in the Mexilhão field in the Santos Basin, Brazil. Major aims of the case study reported here were to create a mechanism for assisting in the process of analyzing and selecting the best options for the destination of natural gas, and to enable the decision agent to choose the investment options best aligned to the expectations and objectives observed in the company strategies. The decision analysis employed in the study made use of the TODIM method and the THOR multicriteria decision support system. The application of both demonstrated that a decision analytic framework can be extremely useful when recommending options for upstream projects, owing to the fact that it can clearly identify the most important alternatives in the face of the scenarios tested and in relation to the criteria expressed.

Decision making in the reactor control room

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nelson, W.R.

1982-01-01

One of the most important roles of the nuclear reactor operator is that of decision maker. This paper discusses a simple model of the decision process used by the reactor operator. Resources that must be available so that he can perform the decision process are presented. Decision aids which have been investigated at EG and G Idaho, Inc., as part of the LOFT Augmented Operator Capability Program are briefly discussed. Some general concepts of computerized decision aiding are developed, and the promises and pitfalls of such decision aids are explored

Environmental sustainable decision making – The need and obstacles for integration of LCA into decision analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dong, Yan; Miraglia, Simona; Manzo, Stefano

2018-01-01

systems, revealing potential problem shifting between life cycle stages. Through the integration with traditional risk based decision analysis, LCA may thus facilitate a better informed decision process. In this study we explore how environmental impacts are taken into account in different fields......Decision analysis is often used to help decision makers choose among alternatives, based on the expected utility associated to each alternative as function of its consequences and potential impacts. Environmental impacts are not always among the prioritized concerns of traditional decision making...... of interest for decision makers to identify the need, potential and obstacles for integrating LCA into conventional approaches to decision problems. Three application areas are used as examples: transportation planning, flood management, and food production and consumption. The analysis of these cases shows...

Exploring the Options: Teaching Economic Decision-Making with Poetry

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Theresa L.

2012-01-01

High-stakes standardized tests in reading and limited instructional time are two powerful disincentives for teaching economics in the elementary classroom. In this article, integrating instruction in poetry and economic decision-making is presented as one way to maximize the use of scarce instructional time. Following a brief introduction to the…

Rethinking Risk: Prospect Theory Application in Health Message Framing Research.

Science.gov (United States)

Harrington, Nancy Grant; Kerr, Anna M

2017-02-01

Although prospect theory conceptualizes risk as uncertainty, health message framing research based on the theory typically conceptualizes risk as severity. This study reports the results of two experiments designed to explore these alternative conceptualizations of risk and their effect on health decision making. Participants (N 1  = 768, N 2  = 532) were randomly assigned to one of four conditions that presented a hypothetical scenario of a sexually transmitted disease (STD) outbreak. The conditions were defined by message prompt (deadly vs. easily curable STD) and response option frame (gain vs. loss). Participants selected which of two programs (certain outcome vs. uncertain outcome) they would prefer to combat the outbreak. Across both experiments, participants expressed strong preferences for certain (low risk) outcomes in the gain-framed conditions and no preferences in the loss-framed conditions. These differences held regardless of the consequence severity of the scenario. We discuss the theoretical and practical implications of these results and offer directions for future research.

Exploring the role of religiosity and spirituality in amniocentesis decision-making among Latinas.

Science.gov (United States)

Seth, Sarah Guerra; Goka, Thomas; Harbison, Andrea; Hollier, Lisa; Peterson, Susan; Ramondetta, Lois; Noblin, Sarah Jane

2011-12-01

Given the complex array of emotional and medical issues that may arise when making a decision about amniocentesis, women may find that their spiritual and/or religious beliefs can comfort and assist their decision-making process. Prior research has suggested that Latinas' spiritual and/or religious beliefs directly influence their amniocentesis decision. A more intimate look into whether Latinas utilize their beliefs during amniocentesis decision-making may provide an opportunity to better understand their experience. The overall goal of this study was to describe the role structured religion and spirituality plays in Latinas' daily lives and to evaluate how religiosity and spirituality influences health care decisions, specifically in prenatal diagnosis. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with eleven women who were invited to describe their religious beliefs and thoughts while considering the option of amniocentesis. All participants acknowledged the influence of religious and/or spiritual beliefs in their everyday lives. Although the women sought comfort and found validation in their beliefs and in their faith in God's will during their amniocentesis decision-making process, results suggest the risk of procedure-related complications played more of a concrete role than their beliefs.

Experience as knowledge: Disability, distillation and (reprogenetic) decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Boardman, Felicity K

2017-10-01

'Experiential knowledge' is increasingly recognised as an important influence on reproductive decision-making. 'Experiential knowledge of disability' in particular is a significant resource within prenatal testing/screening contexts, enabling prospective parents to imagine and appraise future lives affected by disability. However, the concept of 'experiential knowledge' has been widely critiqued for its idiosyncrasy, its impermanence and consequently its perceived inferiority to (medical) knowledge. This paper explores some of these key critiques of experiential knowledge through an analysis of its constitution and uses in the context of reproductive decision-making. Seventeen UK-resident women with Spinal Muscular Atrophy (SMA), or with SMA in their family, took part in two in-depth interviews: one in 2007-9 and the other in 2013-4. By comparing and contrasting these women's accounts at two time points, this paper demonstrates the stark contrast between 'lived experience' of SMA (the visceral everyday realities of life with the condition) and the various way(s) this experience was transformed into, and presented as, 'knowledge' through the processes of making, and accounting, for reproductive decisions. The analysis highlights that multiple, distinct and sometimes competing experiential frameworks are used to conceptualise SMA across time and context. However, rather than evidence of its fallibility, this finding highlights that 'knowledge' is an inappropriate vessel with which to capture and transfer 'experiential knowledge'. Rather, we need to consider how to value such insight in ways that harnesses its inherent strength without leaving it vulnerable to the epistemological critiques attracted by labelling it 'knowledge'. Copyright © 2017 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Effects of approach and withdrawal motivation on interactive economic decisions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Harle, Katia; Sanfey, A.G.

2010-01-01

Although recent economic models of human decision making have recognised the role of emotion as an important biasing factor, the impact of incidental emotion on decisions has remained poorly explored. To address this question, we jointly explored the role of emotional valence (i.e., positive vs.

Risky Group Decision-Making Method for Distribution Grid Planning

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Cunbin; Yuan, Jiahang; Qi, Zhiqiang

2015-12-01

With rapid speed on electricity using and increasing in renewable energy, more and more research pay attention on distribution grid planning. For the drawbacks of existing research, this paper proposes a new risky group decision-making method for distribution grid planning. Firstly, a mixing index system with qualitative and quantitative indices is built. On the basis of considering the fuzziness of language evaluation, choose cloud model to realize "quantitative to qualitative" transformation and construct interval numbers decision matrices according to the "3En" principle. An m-dimensional interval numbers decision vector is regarded as super cuboids in m-dimensional attributes space, using two-level orthogonal experiment to arrange points uniformly and dispersedly. The numbers of points are assured by testing numbers of two-level orthogonal arrays and these points compose of distribution points set to stand for decision-making project. In order to eliminate the influence of correlation among indices, Mahalanobis distance is used to calculate the distance from each solutions to others which means that dynamic solutions are viewed as the reference. Secondly, due to the decision-maker's attitude can affect the results, this paper defines the prospect value function based on SNR which is from Mahalanobis-Taguchi system and attains the comprehensive prospect value of each program as well as the order. At last, the validity and reliability of this method is illustrated by examples which prove the method is more valuable and superiority than the other.

An Exploration of Dual Systems via Time Pressure Manipulation in Decision-making Problems

OpenAIRE

Guo, Lisa

2017-01-01

Every day, decisions need to be made where time is a limiting factor. Regardless of situation, time constraints often place a premium on rapid decision-making. Researchers have been interested in studying this human behavior and understanding its underlying cognitive processes. In previous studies, scientists have believed that the cognitive processes underlying decision-making behavior were consistent with dual-process modes of thinking. Critics of dual-process theory question the vagueness ...

Advantages of integration of uranium exploration data in GIS and models as tools for decision support

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tusveld, M.C.L.

1997-01-01

In many areas where uranium has been or is explored, an enormous amount of data on geology and hydrogeology is available. When these uranium exploration data are stored in a structured way, they can be made useful for other purposes dm uranium exploration only. For instance, in case of environmental pollution, which is often a side-effect of uranium activities such as mining and leaching, the data can be used to develop a computer model of the environment. With such a model impacts can be calculated of different scenarios for cleaning up or isolation of the pollution. A GIS can be used to store the data, to visualize the data (map production) and to analyse the data, but also to calculate input for the models. The advantages of using GIS and models as tools for decision support are explained with the Contaminant Transport Information System (CTIS) as a case study. The CTIS has been developed for remediation operations in the uranium mining area Straz pod Ralskem and Hamr in the Czech Republic. The CTIS consists of a GIS database, a regional groundwater flow model and a local contaminant transport model as well as interfaces for data transfer between the components of the information system. The power of the CTIS lies in the fact that the modelling necessary for the design of a remediation operation can be carried out efficiently by using one of the two models, depending on the specific question. Thus alternative remediation scenarios can be judged easily and fairly on their consequences and effectiveness. (author)

Employment Change and Business Prospects in Serbia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kosovka Đ Ognjenovic

2013-11-01

Full Text Available The aim of this article is to examine whether some previous knowledge about business prospects affects companies’ decisions about new employment in Serbia. In order to investigate this assumption a set of firm level data for 2012 is used. Following the theoretical approach that put an employer in a position to make various decisions about employment within the company, the trichotomous logit model is employed for the estimation of outcomes of possible companies’ decisions with respect to a set of independent variables. We find that the level of employment in the year that precedes companies’ decisions and relative changes in the number of employees in two successive years, as well as age and size of the company to some extent, affect companies’ decisions about new employment. The most important finding of our research is that the companies that experienced fluctuations in the number of employees and upgraded their business opportunities in the previous period hesitate to make decisions on the engagement of new workers, whereas those companies that lost some business opportunities rather decide to downsize the total number of employees.

Spontaneous Cerebellar Hematoma: Decision Making in Conscious Adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Alkosha, Hazem M; Ali, Nabil Mansour

2017-06-01

To detect predictors of the clinical course and outcome of cerebellar hematoma in conscious patients that may help in decision making. This study entails retrospective and prospective review and collection of the demographic, clinical, and radiologic data of 92 patients with cerebellar hematoma presented conscious and initially treated conservatively. Primary outcome was deterioration lower than a Glasgow Coma Scale score of 14 and secondary outcome was Glasgow Outcome Scale score at discharge and 3 months later. Relevant data to primary outcome were used to create a prediction model and derive a risk score. The model was validated using a bootstrap technique and performance measures of the score were presented. Surgical interventions and secondary outcomes were correlated to the score to explore its use in future decision making. Demographic and clinical data showed no relevance to outcome. The relevant initial computed tomography criteria were used to build up the prediction model. A score was derived after the model proved to be valid using internal validation with bootstrapping technique. The score (0-6) had a cutoff value of ≥2, with sensitivity of 93.3% and specificity of 88.0%. It was found to have a significant negative association with the onset of neurologic deterioration, end point Glasgow Coma Scale scores and the Glasgow Outcome Scale scores at discharge. The score was positively correlated to the aggressiveness of surgical interventions and the length of hospital stay. Early definitive management is critical in conscious patients with cerebellar hematomas and can improve outcome. Our proposed score is a simple tool with high discrimination power that may help in timely decision making in those patients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The emergency patient's participation in medical decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Li-Hsiang; Goopy, Suzanne; Lin, Chun-Chih; Barnard, Alan; Han, Chin-Yen; Liu, Hsueh-Erh

2016-09-01

The purpose of this research was to explore the medical decision-making processes of patients in emergency departments. Studies indicate that patients should be given enough time to acquire relevant information and receive adequate support when they need to make medical decisions. It is difficult to satisfy these requirements in emergency situations. Limited research has addressed the topic of decision-making among emergency patients. This qualitative study used a broadly defined grounded theory approach to explore decision-making in an emergency department in Taiwan. Thirty emergency patients were recruited between June and December 2011 for semi-structured interviews that were audio-taped and transcribed verbatim. The study identified three stages in medical decision-making by emergency patients: predecision (interpreting the problem); decision (a balancing act) and postdecision (reclaiming the self). Transference was identified as the core category and pattern of behaviour through which patients resolved their main concerns. This transference around decision-making represents a type of bricolage. The findings fill a gap in knowledge about the decision-making process among emergency patients. The results inform emergency professionals seeking to support patients faced with complex medical decision-making and suggest an emphasis on informed patient decision-making, advocacy, patient-centred care and in-service education of health staff. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

RISK REDUCTION WITH A FUZZY EXPERT EXPLORATION TOOL

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Robert S. Balch; Ron Broadhead

2005-03-01

Incomplete or sparse data such as geologic or formation characteristics introduce a high level of risk for oil exploration and development projects. ''Expert'' systems developed and used in several disciplines and industries have demonstrated beneficial results when working with sparse data. State-of-the-art expert exploration tools, relying on a database, and computer maps generated by neural networks and user inputs, have been developed through the use of ''fuzzy'' logic, a mathematical treatment of imprecise or non-explicit parameters and values. Oil prospecting risk has been reduced with the use of these properly verified and validated ''Fuzzy Expert Exploration (FEE) Tools.'' Through the course of this project, FEE Tools and supporting software were developed for two producing formations in southeast New Mexico. Tools of this type can be beneficial in many regions of the U.S. by enabling risk reduction in oil and gas prospecting as well as decreased prospecting and development costs. In today's oil industry environment, many smaller exploration companies lack the resources of a pool of expert exploration personnel. Downsizing, volatile oil prices, and scarcity of domestic exploration funds have also affected larger companies, and will, with time, affect the end users of oil industry products in the U.S. as reserves are depleted. The FEE Tools benefit a diverse group in the U.S., allowing a more efficient use of scarce funds, and potentially reducing dependence on foreign oil and providing lower product prices for consumers.

[Evaluation of the Initial Stage Career Exploration Inventory (ISCEI)].

Science.gov (United States)

Adachi, Tomoko

2010-06-01

The Initial Stage Career Exploration Inventory (ISCEI) was designed to assess career exploration among students in the early stage of making career decisions. The reliability, validity, and applicability of the ISCEI were investigated. In Study 1, responses on the ISCEI from student participants (n = 294 : 69 men, 225 women) were factor analyzed. The results suggested a 3-factor structure consisting of "self-understanding," "information gathering" and "learning from others." Comparison between the ISCEI and self-improvement motive, vocational decisions, and career decision-making self-efficacy scales from the Career Exploration Survey (CES) indicated that the ISCEI had sufficient construct validity. Study 2 investigated the applicability of the ISCEI. The responses of student participants (n = 859 : 451 men, 408 women) on the ISCEI indicated high "self-understanding," neutral "information gathering," and comparatively low "learning from others" scores, which were similarly related to the CES as in Study 1. These findings indicate that the ISCEI can be used as a tool for understanding career exploration among students in the initial stage of making career decision.

Exploring disadvantageous inequality aversion in children: How cost and discrepancy influence decision-making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amanda eWilliams

2014-09-01

Full Text Available This research examined disadvantageous inequality aversion in 4- and 6-year-old children. Using the resource allocation paradigm, we explored how inequality aversion was influenced by whether a cost was associated with the equitable choice. We also investigated whether preferences for equality differed depending on whether the inequitable choice presented a small or large discrepancy between the payoff of the participant and their partner. The results demonstrated that cost plays a large role in decision-making, as children preferred equality more when there was no cost associated with it compared to when there was a cost. Interestingly, the effect of cost also affected discrepancy, with children more likely to choose equality when the discrepancy was large as opposed to small, in cost trials but not in no cost trials. Finally, the effect of discrepancy also interacted with age, with older children being more sensitive to the discrepancy between themselves and their partner Together, these results suggest that children’s behaviour is not indiscriminately guided by a generalized aversion to inequality or established fairness norms. Alternate motives for inequality aversion are discussed.

Career exploration behavior of Korean medical students

OpenAIRE

Hyejin An; Seung-Hee Lee

2017-01-01

Purpose This study is to analyze the effects of medical students? social support and career barriers on career exploration behavior mediated by career decision-making self-efficacy. Methods We applied the t-test to investigate the difference among the variables based on gender and admission types. Also, we performed path analysis to verify the effect of perceived career barriers and social support on career exploration behavior with career decision efficacy as a mediator. Results First, we no...

Difficult decisions: A qualitative exploration of the statistical decision making process from the perspectives of psychology students and academics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter James Allen

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Quantitative research methods are essential to the development of professional competence in psychology. They are also an area of weakness for many students. In particular, students are known to struggle with the skill of selecting quantitative analytical strategies appropriate for common research questions, hypotheses and data types. To begin understanding this apparent deficit, we presented nine psychology undergraduates (who had all completed at least one quantitative methods course with brief research vignettes, and asked them to explicate the process they would follow to identify an appropriate statistical technique for each. Thematic analysis revealed that all participants found this task challenging, and even those who had completed several research methods courses struggled to articulate how they would approach the vignettes on more than a very superficial and intuitive level. While some students recognized that there is a systematic decision making process that can be followed, none could describe it clearly or completely. We then presented the same vignettes to 10 psychology academics with particular expertise in conducting research and/or research methods instruction. Predictably, these ‘experts’ were able to describe a far more systematic, comprehensive, flexible and nuanced approach to statistical decision making, which begins early in the research process, and pays consideration to multiple contextual factors. They were sensitive to the challenges that students experience when making statistical decisions, which they attributed partially to how research methods and statistics are commonly taught. This sensitivity was reflected in their pedagogic practices. When asked to consider the format and features of an aid that could facilitate the statistical decision making process, both groups expressed a preference for an accessible, comprehensive and reputable resource that follows a basic decision tree logic. For the academics in

Difficult Decisions: A Qualitative Exploration of the Statistical Decision Making Process from the Perspectives of Psychology Students and Academics

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, Peter J.; Dorozenko, Kate P.; Roberts, Lynne D.

2016-01-01

Quantitative research methods are essential to the development of professional competence in psychology. They are also an area of weakness for many students. In particular, students are known to struggle with the skill of selecting quantitative analytical strategies appropriate for common research questions, hypotheses and data types. To begin understanding this apparent deficit, we presented nine psychology undergraduates (who had all completed at least one quantitative methods course) with brief research vignettes, and asked them to explicate the process they would follow to identify an appropriate statistical technique for each. Thematic analysis revealed that all participants found this task challenging, and even those who had completed several research methods courses struggled to articulate how they would approach the vignettes on more than a very superficial and intuitive level. While some students recognized that there is a systematic decision making process that can be followed, none could describe it clearly or completely. We then presented the same vignettes to 10 psychology academics with particular expertise in conducting research and/or research methods instruction. Predictably, these “experts” were able to describe a far more systematic, comprehensive, flexible, and nuanced approach to statistical decision making, which begins early in the research process, and pays consideration to multiple contextual factors. They were sensitive to the challenges that students experience when making statistical decisions, which they attributed partially to how research methods and statistics are commonly taught. This sensitivity was reflected in their pedagogic practices. When asked to consider the format and features of an aid that could facilitate the statistical decision making process, both groups expressed a preference for an accessible, comprehensive and reputable resource that follows a basic decision tree logic. For the academics in particular, this aid

Evaluation of undrilled prospects. Sensitivity to economic and geological factors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hermanrud, C.; Abrahamsen, K.; Vollset, J.; Nordahl, S.; Jourdan, C.

1996-01-01

Economic prospect evaluation at an early stage involves personnel with different skills, such as geoscientists, reservoir engineers, construction engineers and economists. Data are transferred between these groups of people who often have only a vague understanding of the accuracy of the data they receive. This lack of communication naturally limits the correctness of the results. To improve this communication, the complete process of prospect evaluation (including both geological and economical aspects) has been followed here in order to show the different data sets that are transferred and to comment upon their accuracy. Although this paper is based entirely on Statoil's methodology, it is nevertheless believed to be of general relevance. In Statoil's methodology, prospect volumes calculated by geoscientists are given as likelihood distributions. Post-drilling examination of such volume distributions show that historically they have been too optimistic. However, historical prospect risking has correctly identified the most important risk factors and has been able to separate low-risk from high-risk prospects in a satisfactory manner. The number of appraisal wells that are needed before the development of a field can be decided upon is often crucial to the economic evaluations. This number, however, is usually underestimated during the early stages of exploration, probably because data limitations mask reservoir heterogeneities. Reservoir performance is of utmost importance to early economic calculations as it influences both the drilling costs and the production of hydrocarbons vs. time. Of course, reservoir productivity is highly uncertain when judged prior to drilling the first well. Historical data show that reserve estimates of producing fields tend to be upgraded as reservoir depletion proceeds, although several fields have had their reserve estimates downgraded shortly after production start-up. The operational and investment costs are not generally

I-tese newsletter No. 22 - Summer 2014. Quarterly newsletter of the Institute of Technique-Economics of Energetic Systems for scientists, managers, supervisors and decision-makers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Behar, Christophe; Bigot, Bernard; Cany, Camille; De Jouvenel, Hugues; Devezeaux, Jean-Guy; Duquesnoy, Thierry; Mansilla, Christine; Monnet, Antoine; Plassat, Gabriel; Popiolek, Nathalie; Saab, Assaad; Sido, Bruno

2014-01-01

This publication first proposes texts of interventions in a meeting on the contribution of prospective approaches to energetic decision. The contributors discuss the perspective for a society without fossil energies, the future of nuclear energy in the 21. century, the issue of energy prospective, the prospective approach, the role of prospective as a support to decision making, and prospective applied to car and mobility. Two articles report the content of two round tables. The first one addressed the methods and results of energy prospective, and the second discussed whether the prospective approach answers the expectations of decision-makers. An article comments the content of a report by the French Court of Auditors (Cour des Comptes) on the production cost of nuclear energy which notably discusses how this production cost is assessed, highlights the maintenance costs and discusses the issue of extension of the exploitation duration beyond 40 years, the perspective of evolution of the production cost during the extension period, and the sensitivity to the evolutions of future expenses

Teaching Prospective Teachers about Fractions: Historical and Pedagogical Perspectives

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Jungeun; Gucler, Beste; McCrory, Raven

2013-01-01

Research shows that students, and sometimes teachers, have trouble with fractions, especially conceiving of fractions as numbers that extend the whole number system. This paper explores how fractions are addressed in undergraduate mathematics courses for prospective elementary teachers (PSTs). In particular, we explore how, and whether, the…

Charter Schools and the Teacher Job Search

Science.gov (United States)

Cannata, Marisa

2011-01-01

This article examines the position of charter schools in prospective elementary teachers' job search decisions. Using a labor market segmentation framework, it explores teacher applicants' decisions to apply to charter schools. The data come from a mixed-methods longitudinal study of prospective teachers looking for their first job. This article…

Charter Schools and the Teacher Job Search in Michigan

Science.gov (United States)

Cannata, Marisa

2010-01-01

This paper examines the position of charter schools in prospective elementary teachers' job search decisions. Using a labor market segmentation framework, it explores teacher applicants' decisions to apply to charter schools. The data come from a mixed-methods longitudinal study of prospective teachers looking for their first job. This paper finds…

Substantial reduction of inappropriate tablet splitting with computerised decision support: a prospective intervention study assessing potential benefit and harm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Quinzler Renate

2009-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Currently ambulatory patients break one in four tablets before ingestion. Roughly 10% of them are not suitable for splitting because they lack score lines or because enteric or modified release coating is destroyed impairing safety and effectiveness of the medication. We assessed impact and safety of computerised decision support on the inappropriate prescription of split tablets. Methods We performed a prospective intervention study in a 1680-bed university hospital. Over a 15-week period we evaluated all electronically composed medication regimens and determined the fraction of tablets and capsules that demanded inappropriate splitting. In a subsequent intervention phase of 15 weeks duration for 10553 oral drugs divisibility characteristics were indicated in the system. In addition, an alert was generated and displayed during the prescription process whenever the entered dosage regimen demanded inappropriate splitting (splitting of capsules, unscored tablets, or scored tablets unsuitable for the intended fragmentation. Results During the baseline period 12.5% of all drugs required splitting and 2.7% of all drugs (257/9545 required inappropriate splitting. During the intervention period the frequency of inappropriate splitting was significantly reduced (1.4% of all drugs (146/10486; p = 0.0008. In response to half of the alerts (69/136 physicians adjusted the medication regimen. In the other half (67/136 no corrections were made although a switch to more suitable drugs (scored tablets, tablets with lower strength, liquid formulation was possible in 82% (55/67. Conclusion This study revealed that computerised decision support can immediately reduce the frequency of inappropriate splitting without introducing new safety hazards.

Emotional Components of Unethical Decisions: An Exploratory Study

Science.gov (United States)

Priesmeyer, H. Richard

2011-01-01

The role of emotions in decision-making has been explored by others and has revealed that both "immediate emotions", those present at the time of the decision, and "expected emotions", those expected to result from a decision, effect which alternative will be chosen (Lowenstein, 2001). The significance of emotions in behavior…

Prospecting and exploration of the Key Lake uranium deposits, Saskatchewan, Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tan, B.H.

1980-01-01

The research activities which led to the detection of the Key Lake deposit and their model character for uranium prospecting in this area are discussed. The genesis of the ores and the surrounding rocks are described, and the possible genesis of the deposit is discussed on the basis of the present state of knowledge. (HP) [de

Decision analysis of shoreline protection under climate change uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Chao, Philip T.; Hobbs, Benjamin F.

1997-04-01

If global warming occurs, it could significantly affect water resource distribution and availability. Yet it is unclear whether the prospect of such change is relevant to water resources management decisions being made today. We model a shoreline protection decision problem with a stochastic dynamic program (SDP) to determine whether consideration of the possibility of climate change would alter the decision. Three questions are addressed with the SDP: (l) How important is climate change compared to other uncertainties?, (2) What is the economic loss if climate change uncertainty is ignored?, and (3) How does belief in climate change affect the timing of the decision? In the case study, sensitivity analysis shows that uncertainty in real discount rates has a stronger effect upon the decision than belief in climate change. Nevertheless, a strong belief in climate change makes the shoreline protection project less attractive and often alters the decision to build it.

Nuclear regulatory decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wieland, Patricia; Almeida, Ivan Pedro Salati de

2011-01-01

The scientific considerations upon which the nuclear regulations are based provide objective criteria for decisions on nuclear safety matters. However, the decisions that a regulatory agency takes go far beyond granting or not an operating license based on assessment of compliance. It may involve decisions about hiring experts or research, appeals, responses to other government agencies, international agreements, etc.. In all cases, top management of the regulatory agency should hear and decide the best balance between the benefits of regulatory action and undue risks and other associated impacts that may arise, including issues of credibility and reputation. The establishment of a decision framework based on well established principles and criteria ensures performance stability and consistency, preventing individual subjectivity. This article analyzes the challenges to the decision-making by regulatory agencies to ensure coherence and consistency in decisions, even in situations where there is uncertainty, lack of reliable information and even divergence of opinions among experts. The article explores the basic elements for a framework for regulatory decision-making. (author)

Handbook of group decision and negotiation

CERN Document Server

Eden, Colin

2010-01-01

The growing field of Group Decision and Negotiation is best described as the empirical, formal, computational, and strategic analysis of group decision-making and negotiation, especially from the viewpoints of Management Science and Operations Research. The topic crosses many traditional disciplinary boundaries. It has connections to business administration and business strategy, management science, systems engineering, computer science, mathematics, and law, as well as economics, psychology, and other social sciences. This defining handbook provides an up-to-date reference on new approaches to the principles and practice of negotiation, group decision-making, and collaboration, including the origins, development, and prospects of electronic negotiation, as well as the associated development of on-line or computer-based arbitration systems. It also provides a current and comprehensive reference on how traditional issues in negotiation, such as knowledge, language, strategy, fairness and justice, have been tra...

A qualitative study to explore Prospect theory and message framing and diet and cancer prevention-related issues among African American adolescents

Science.gov (United States)

Satia, Jessie A.; Barlow, Jameta; Armstrong-Brown, Janelle; Watters, Joanne L.

2010-01-01

Aims To develop and test cancer prevention messages based on Prospect theory on motivation to improve dietary intake in African American adolescents, and to explore other salient factors that may inform dietary intervention design and implementation in this population. Methods Semi-structured in-person qualitative interviews were conducted with 13 African-American male and female adolescents, 12-16 years, in North Carolina. Prospect theory and message framing were used to guide the design of the four sets of diet-related messages related to cancer prevention: short-term gain-, long-term gain-, short-term loss-, and long-term loss-framed messages. Data were also collected on demographic, behavioral, and psychological factors; usual health behaviors; and preferences for intervention delivery. Results The majority of respondents found the gain-framed, short-term messages most salient for both fruits/vegetables (8 (61.5%)), and fat consumption (7 (53.8%)). For fat consumption only, 2 (15.4%) found the loss-framed, short-term messages pertinent; none found the loss-framed, long-term messages relevant for either dietary variable. All indicated interest in participating in a dietary intervention/education program; most preferred the Internet as a channel for intervention delivery. Participants expressed diverse views regarding knowledge, attitudes, and beliefs regarding healthy eating. Conclusions Researchers conducting dietary interventions and education initiatives and medical professionals who counsel African American adolescents should consider using Prospect Theory as a theoretical framework, should focus on gain-framed short-term messages regarding cancer prevention, and should employ the Internet for data collection and intervention and information delivery. PMID:20142738

Book Review Microfinance: Perils and Prospects

African Journals Online (AJOL)

African Review of Economics and Finance, Vol 4, No. 2, June ... This book explores the perils and prospects of microfinance by looking at the issue ... qualitative data, and a list of references that could be useful to readers who want to learn ...

Application of Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) Technique for Gradation of Jute Fibres

Science.gov (United States)

Choudhuri, P. K.

2014-12-01

Multi-Criteria Decision Making is a branch of Operation Research (OR) having a comparatively short history of about 40 years. It is being popularly used in the field of engineering, banking, fixing policy matters etc. It can also be applied for taking decisions in daily life like selecting a car to purchase, selecting bride or groom and many others. Various MCDM methods namely Weighted Sum Model (WSM), Weighted Product Model (WPM), Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solutions (TOPSIS) and Elimination and Choice Translating Reality (ELECTRE) are there to solve many decision making problems, each having its own limitations. However it is very difficult to decide which MCDM method is the best. MCDM methods are prospective quantitative approaches for solving decision problems involving finite number of alternatives and criteria. Very few research works in textiles have been carried out with the help of this technique particularly where decision taking among several alternatives becomes the major problem based on some criteria which are conflicting in nature. Gradation of jute fibres on the basis of the criteria like strength, root content, defects, colour, density, fineness etc. is an important task to perform. The MCDM technique provides enough scope to be applied for the gradation of jute fibres or ranking among several varieties keeping in view a particular object and on the basis of some selection criteria and their relative weightage. The present paper is an attempt to explore the scope of applying the multiplicative AHP method of multi-criteria decision making technique to determine the quality values of selected jute fibres on the basis of some above stated important criteria and ranking them accordingly. A good agreement in ranking is observed between the existing Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) grading and proposed method.

BIO PROSPECTING IN NIGERIA: EVALUATING THE ADEQUACY ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

in strategic planning and policy formulation on bio prospecting, amongst ... into the challenging field of exploring biological diversity for commercially ...... sions of these regulations, such body corporate, or any person who was purporting to act.

Maritime Military Decision Making in Environments of Extreme Information Ambiguity: An Initial Exploration

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Reeves, Andrew T

2005-01-01

... to make effective decisions. An environment of extreme information ambiguity, a dependent variable, is one of the most difficult components of a battle where the decision maker may reach a confusing and debilitating point...

[Career exploration as related to self-efficacy and the motivation based on self-determination theory].

Science.gov (United States)

Yoshizaki, Satoko; Hiraoka, Kyoichi

2015-04-01

The purpose of the present study was to examine the multivariate relations between career exploration and its predictors. University sophomores and seniors completed a questionnaire about career exploration, career decision-making self-efficacy, career decision-making outcome expectations, and career motivation. Canonical correlation analysis showed that combining all predictors, i.e., career decision-making self-efficacy, career decision-making outcome expectations, and career motivations, accounted for a large portion of the career exploration variance. Of subfactors of career motivation, only "integrated and identified regulation" was significantly related to career exploration. This result suggests that career exploration is predicted by self-efficacy as well as a highly self-determinated extrinsic motivation.

Whose Values? Whose Risk? Exploring Decision Making About Trial of Labor After Cesarean.

Science.gov (United States)

Charles, Sonya; Wolf, Allison B

2018-06-01

In this article, we discuss decision making during labor and delivery, specifically focusing on decision making around offering women a trial of labor after cesarean section (TOLAC). Many have discussed how humans are notoriously bad at assessing risks and how we often distort the nature of various risks surrounding childbirth. We will build on this discussion by showing that physicians make decisions around TOLAC not only based on distortions of risk, but also based on personal values (i.e. what level of risk are you comfortable with or what types of risks are you willing to take) rather than medical data (or at least medical data alone). As a result of this, we will further suggest that the party who is best epistemically situated to make decisions about TOLAC is the woman herself.

College Choice and the University Brand: Exploring the Consumer Decision Framework

Science.gov (United States)

Stephenson, Amber L.; Heckert, Alex; Yerger, David B.

2016-01-01

Branding in higher education has become increasingly used as a mechanism of differentiation among competitors to attract prospective students. Although branding in higher education is a common phenomenon, little work has been done assessing the college selection process using a brand choice framework. This paper aims to fill the gap by…

Affective Biases and Heuristics in Decision Making : Emotion regulation as a factor for decision making competence

OpenAIRE

Hagman, William

2013-01-01

Stanovich and West (2008) explored if measures of cognitive ability ignored some important aspects of thinking itself, namely that cognitive ability alone is not enough to generally prevent biased thinking. In this thesis a series of decision making (DM) tasks is tested to see if emotion regulation (ER) is a factor for the decision process and therefore should be a measured in decision making competence. A set of DM tasks was compiled involving both affective and cognitive dimensions. 400 par...

Decision impact and feasibility of different ASCO-recommended biomarkers in early breast cancer: Prospective comparison of molecular marker EndoPredict and protein marker uPA/PAI-1.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Johannes Ettl

Full Text Available Adjuvant therapy decisions in early breast cancer are based on accurate risk assessment. Urokinase plasminogen activator (uPA and plaminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1 have been the first biomarkers in hormone receptor (HR positive breast cancer to reach highest level of evidence. The EndoPredict test (EPclin combines gene expression information with nodal status and tumor size. The aim of this prospective study was to compare uPA/PAI-1 and EPclin as prognostic biomarkers with regard to feasibility, risk stratification and impact on adjuvant therapy recommendation.395 patients with HR positive, HER2 negative, intermediate risk breast cancer were enrolled. Relations and concordance of histologic grading as well as EPclin and uPA/PAI-1 values were assessed by Spearman's rank correlation coefficient and Cohen's Kappa. To compare decision impact of EPclin and uPA/PAI-1 three independent case discussions were held: One with known uPA/PAI-1 and EPclin results, one blinded to EPclin alone and another one blinded to both EPclin and uPA/PAI-1.EPclin could be determined in all 395 (100%, uPA/PAI-1 in 190 (48% of the tumor samples. EPclin allocated 250 patients (63% to the low-risk group and 145 patients (37% to the high-risk group, whereas uPA/PAI-1 allocated 88 patients (46% to the low-risk group and 102 patients (54% to the high-risk group. In 59% of cases, both tests showed concordant results. EPclin resulted more frequently in a change of therapy recommendation than the uPA/PAI-1 test (46% vs 24%. Recommendation of adjuvant chemotherapy (CTX was abandoned twice as often by EPclin (45% compared to uPA/PAI-1 (22%.In this first prospective comparison of EPclin and uPA/PAI-1 we found, that EPclin is superior to uPA/PAI-1 with respect to feasibility and decision impact. This leads to substantial avoidance of adjuvant CTX in endocrine-sensitive, HER2-negative breast cancer. Data collection for patients´ clinical outcome is ongoing.

General practitioners' decisions about discontinuation of medication: an explorative study.

Science.gov (United States)

Nixon, Michael Simon; Vendelø, Morten Thanning

2016-06-20

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to investigate how general practitioners' (GPs) decisions about discontinuation of medication are influenced by their institutional context. Design/methodology/approach - In total, 24 GPs were interviewed, three practices were observed and documents were collected. The Gioia methodology was used to analyse data, drawing on a theoretical framework that integrate the sensemaking perspective and institutional theory. Findings - Most GPs, who actively consider discontinuation, are reluctant to discontinue medication, because the safest course of action for GPs is to continue prescriptions, rather than discontinue them. The authors conclude that this is in part due to the ambiguity about the appropriateness of discontinuing medication, experienced by the GPs, and in part because the clinical guidelines do not encourage discontinuation of medication, as they offer GPs a weak frame for discontinuation. Three reasons for this are identified: the guidelines provide dominating triggers for prescribing, they provide weak priming for discontinuation as an option, and they underscore a cognitive constraint against discontinuation. Originality/value - The analysis offers new insights about decision making when discontinuing medication. It also offers one of the first examinations of how the institutional context embedding GPs influences their decisions about discontinuation. For policymakers interested in the discontinuation of medication, the findings suggest that de-stigmatising discontinuation on an institutional level may be beneficial, allowing GPs to better justify discontinuation in light of the ambiguity they experience.

Promoting Shared Decision Making through Descriptive Inquiry

Science.gov (United States)

Seher, Rachel; Traugh, Cecelia; Cheng, Alan

2018-01-01

This article shows how City-As-School, a progressive public school in New York City, used descriptive inquiry to deepen shared decision making, which is a central value of the school and part of a democratic way of life. Descriptive inquiry is a democratic knowledge-making process that was developed at the Prospect School in North Bennington,…

Service Level Decision-making in Rural Physiotherapy: Development of Conceptual Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, Robyn; Jones, Anne; Lefmann, Sophie; Sheppard, Lorraine

2016-06-01

Understanding decision-making about health service provision is increasingly important in an environment of increasing demand and constrained resources. Multiple factors are likely to influence decisions about which services will be provided, yet workforce is the most noted factor in the rural physiotherapy literature. This paper draws together results obtained from exploration of service level decision-making (SLDM) to propose 'conceptual' models of rural physiotherapy SLDM. A prioritized qualitative approach enabled exploration of participant perspectives about rural physiotherapy decision-making. Stakeholder perspectives were obtained through surveys and in-depth interviews. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and reviewed by participants. Participant confidentiality was maintained by coding both participants and sites. A system theory-case study heuristic provided a framework for exploration across sites within the investigation area: a large area of one Australian state with a mix of regional, rural and remote communities. Thirty-nine surveys were received from participants in 11 communities. Nineteen in-depth interviews were conducted with physiotherapists and key decision-makers. Results reveal the complexity of factors influencing rural physiotherapy service provision and the value of a systems approach when exploring decision-making about rural physiotherapy service provision. Six key features were identified that formed the rural physiotherapy SLDM system: capacity and capability; contextual influences; layered decision-making; access issues; value and beliefs; and tensions and conflict. Rural physiotherapy SLDM is not a one-dimensional process but results from the complex interaction of clusters of systems issues. Decision-making about physiotherapy service provision is influenced by both internal and external factors. Similarities in influencing factors and the iterative nature of decision-making emerged, which enabled linking physiotherapy SLDM with

Using data mining techniques to explore physicians' therapeutic decisions when clinical guidelines do not provide recommendations: methods and example for type 2 diabetes.

Science.gov (United States)

Toussi, Massoud; Lamy, Jean-Baptiste; Le Toumelin, Philippe; Venot, Alain

2009-06-10

Clinical guidelines carry medical evidence to the point of practice. As evidence is not always available, many guidelines do not provide recommendations for all clinical situations encountered in practice. We propose an approach for identifying knowledge gaps in guidelines and for exploring physicians' therapeutic decisions with data mining techniques to fill these knowledge gaps. We demonstrate our method by an example in the domain of type 2 diabetes. We analyzed the French national guidelines for the management of type 2 diabetes to identify clinical conditions that are not covered or those for which the guidelines do not provide recommendations. We extracted patient records corresponding to each clinical condition from a database of type 2 diabetic patients treated at Avicenne University Hospital of Bobigny, France. We explored physicians' prescriptions for each of these profiles using C5.0 decision-tree learning algorithm. We developed decision-trees for different levels of detail of the therapeutic decision, namely the type of treatment, the pharmaco-therapeutic class, the international non proprietary name, and the dose of each medication. We compared the rules generated with those added to the guidelines in a newer version, to examine their similarity. We extracted 27 rules from the analysis of a database of 463 patient records. Eleven rules were about the choice of the type of treatment and thirteen rules about the choice of the pharmaco-therapeutic class of each drug. For the choice of the international non proprietary name and the dose, we could extract only a few rules because the number of patient records was too low for these factors. The extracted rules showed similarities with those added to the newer version of the guidelines. Our method showed its usefulness for completing guidelines recommendations with rules learnt automatically from physicians' prescriptions. It could be used during the development of guidelines as a complementary source from

Using data mining techniques to explore physicians' therapeutic decisions when clinical guidelines do not provide recommendations: methods and example for type 2 diabetes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Toussi Massoud

2009-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Clinical guidelines carry medical evidence to the point of practice. As evidence is not always available, many guidelines do not provide recommendations for all clinical situations encountered in practice. We propose an approach for identifying knowledge gaps in guidelines and for exploring physicians' therapeutic decisions with data mining techniques to fill these knowledge gaps. We demonstrate our method by an example in the domain of type 2 diabetes. Methods We analyzed the French national guidelines for the management of type 2 diabetes to identify clinical conditions that are not covered or those for which the guidelines do not provide recommendations. We extracted patient records corresponding to each clinical condition from a database of type 2 diabetic patients treated at Avicenne University Hospital of Bobigny, France. We explored physicians' prescriptions for each of these profiles using C5.0 decision-tree learning algorithm. We developed decision-trees for different levels of detail of the therapeutic decision, namely the type of treatment, the pharmaco-therapeutic class, the international non proprietary name, and the dose of each medication. We compared the rules generated with those added to the guidelines in a newer version, to examine their similarity. Results We extracted 27 rules from the analysis of a database of 463 patient records. Eleven rules were about the choice of the type of treatment and thirteen rules about the choice of the pharmaco-therapeutic class of each drug. For the choice of the international non proprietary name and the dose, we could extract only a few rules because the number of patient records was too low for these factors. The extracted rules showed similarities with those added to the newer version of the guidelines. Conclusion Our method showed its usefulness for completing guidelines recommendations with rules learnt automatically from physicians' prescriptions. It could be used

Show Me the Money: Importance of Crowdfunding Factors on Backers’ Decisions to Financially Support Kickstarter Campaigns

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rita Colistra

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Through the use of an online survey and supporting interviews of funders, this study explores which factors are most influential in people’s decisions to financially back Kickstarter projects. Findings suggest that Kickstarter has several distinct benefits for those who support its projects and offers them an experience that traditional production channels cannot. The results also indicate that backers typically feel involved in the process of creating the projects they support, and they are willing to take risks to see projects that are important to them come to fruition. This research helps to improve our understanding of the attitudes that drive Kickstarter funding, and it helps project creators know what aspects of their campaigns prospective supporters find most important.

Oil and gas industry, exploration and development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Appert, O.

1998-01-01

A consistent investment boost on exploration and development, the favourable prospects connected with technological improvement, the opening of virgin areas of exploration are all factors granting extraordinary opportunities for the oil and gas industry. However, environmental constraints relevant to emission standards and products quality are also growing and will be increasingly binding upon both oil and car industries [it

Breast compression – An exploration of problem solving and decision-making in mammography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nightingale, J.M.; Murphy, F.J.; Robinson, L.; Newton-Hughes, A.; Hogg, P.

2015-01-01

Objective: Breast compression decreases radiation dose and reduces potential for motion and geometric unsharpness, yet there is variability in applied compression force within and between some centres. This article explores the problem solving process applied to the application of breast compression force from the mammography practitioners' perspective. Methods: A qualitative analysis was undertaken using an existing full data set of transcribed qualitative data collected in a phenomenological study of mammography practitioner values, behaviours and beliefs. The data emerged from focus groups conducted at six NHS breast screening centres in England (participant n = 41), and semi-structured interviews with mammography educators (n = 6). A researcher followed a thematic content analysis process to extract data related to mammography compression problem solving, developing a series of categories, themes and sub-themes. Emerging themes were then peer-validated by two other researchers, and developed into a model of practice. Results: Seven consecutive stages contributed towards compression force problem solving: assessing the request; first impressions; explanations and consent; handling the breast and positioning; applying compression force; final adjustments; feedback. The model captures information gathering, problem framing, problem solving and decision making which inform an ‘ideal’ compression scenario. Behavioural problem solving, heuristics and intuitive decision making are reflected within this model. Conclusion: The application of compression should no longer be considered as one single task within mammography, but is now recognised as a seven stage problem solving continuum. This continuum model is the first to be applied to mammography, and is adaptable and transferable to other radiography practice settings. - Highlights: • Mammography compression should no longer be considered as one single examination task. • A seven stage breast

An exploration study to find important factors influencing on decision support systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Naser Azad

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Decision Support Systems (DSSs are computer-based information systems for providing necessary supports for business or organizational decision-making activities. DSSs often serve the management, operations, and planning levels of all organizations and help to make decisions, which may be rapidly changing and not easily achieved in advance. This paper presents an empirical investigation to find important factors influencing DSSs. The proposed study designs a questionnaire in Likert scale consists of 36 questions, distributes it among 213 employees who work for different offices in municipality of Tehran, Iran. Cronbach alpha is calculated as 0.872. In addition, Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy and Approx. Chi-Square are 0.782 and 1014.521, respectively. Based on the results of our survey, we have derived three factors including system, analysis and transaction.

Breaking the sound barrier: exploring parents' decision-making process of cochlear implants for their children.

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Pamara F

2017-08-01

To understand the dynamic experiences of parents undergoing the decision-making process regarding cochlear implants for their child(ren). Thirty-three parents of d/Deaf children participated in semi-structured interviews. Interviews were digitally recorded, transcribed, and coded using iterative and thematic coding. The results from this study reveal four salient topics related to parents' decision-making process regarding cochlear implantation: 1) factors parents considered when making the decision to get the cochlear implant for their child (e.g., desire to acculturate child into one community), 2) the extent to which parents' communities influence their decision-making (e.g., norms), 3) information sources parents seek and value when decision-making (e.g., parents value other parent's experiences the most compared to medical or online sources), and 4) personal experiences with stigma affecting their decision to not get the cochlear implant for their child. This study provides insights into values and perspectives that can be utilized to improve informed decision-making, when making risky medical decisions with long-term implications. With thorough information provisions, delineation of addressing parents' concerns and encompassing all aspects of the decision (i.e., medical, social and cultural), health professional teams could reduce the uncertainty and anxiety for parents in this decision-making process for cochlear implantation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prospects for oil and gas in ultradeep horizons of the Chechen-Ingush ASSR

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yandarbiev, N.Sh.

1981-01-01

Described is the modern state of prospecting and exploration for oil and gas in the territory of the Chechen-Ingush ASSR, and the prospects for discovering new deposits of hydrocarbons in ultradeep horizons are substantiated.

An exploration of chronic pain patients perceptions of home telerehabilitation services

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cranen, Karlijn; Cranen, Karlijn; Drossaert, Constance H.C.; Brinkman, Evelien S.; Braakman-Jansen, Louise Marie Antoinette; IJzerman, Maarten Joost; Vollenbroek-Hutten, Miriam Marie Rosé

2011-01-01

Objectives  To explore patients’ perceptions regarding prospective telerehabilitation services and the factors that facilitate or impede patients’ intentions to use these services. Design  Using semi-structured interviews, patients reflected on the pros and cons of various scenarios of prospective

Prospective analysis. Nuclear deterrence in 2030

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tertrais, B.

2006-12-01

This study is a prospective analysis of the long-term future of nuclear weapons, and particularly the future of French nuclear deterrence after 2015. The selected time period is 2025-2030. The principal objective is to reflect on what the nuclear world might look like during the first part of the 21 st century, beyond the modernization decisions already planned or envisaged, and to draw conclusions for the future of the French deterrent. (author)

The design of patient decision support interventions: addressing the theory-practice gap.

Science.gov (United States)

Elwyn, Glyn; Stiel, Mareike; Durand, Marie-Anne; Boivin, Jacky

2011-08-01

Although an increasing number of decision support interventions for patients (including decision aids) are produced, few make explicit use of theory. We argue the importance of using theory to guide design. The aim of this work was to address this theory-practice gap and to examine how a range of selected decision-making theories could inform the design and evaluation of decision support interventions. We reviewed the decision-making literature and selected relevant theories. We assessed their key principles, theoretical pathways and predictions in order to determine how they could inform the design of two core components of decision support interventions, namely, information and deliberation components and to specify theory-based outcome measures. Eight theories were selected: (1) the expected utility theory; (2) the conflict model of decision making; (3) prospect theory; (4) fuzzy-trace theory; (5) the differentiation and consolidation theory; (6) the ecological rationality theory; (7) the rational-emotional model of decision avoidance; and finally, (8) the Attend, React, Explain, Adapt model of affective forecasting. Some theories have strong relevance to the information design (e.g. prospect theory); some are more relevant to deliberation processes (conflict theory, differentiation theory and ecological validity). None of the theories in isolation was sufficient to inform the design of all the necessary components of decision support interventions. It was also clear that most work in theory-building has focused on explaining or describing how humans think rather than on how tools could be designed to help humans make good decisions. It is not surprising therefore that a large theory-practice gap exists as we consider decision support for patients. There was no relevant theory that integrated all the necessary contributions to the task of making good decisions in collaborative interactions. Initiatives such as the International Patient Decision Aids Standards

Patient Decision-Making About Emergency and Planned Stoma Surgery for IBD: A Qualitative Exploration of Patient and Clinician Perspectives.

Science.gov (United States)

Dibley, Lesley; Czuber-Dochan, Wladyslawa; Wade, Tiffany; Duncan, Julie; Burch, Jennie; Warusavitarne, Janindra; Norton, Christine; Artom, Micol; O'Sullivan, Liam; Verjee, Azmina; Cann, Denise

2018-01-18

Many inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients worry about stoma-forming surgery (SFS), sometimes enduring poor bowel-related quality of life to avoid it. Anticipation of SFS and whether expectations match experience is underreported. This qualitative study explored influences on patients' SFS decision-making and compared preoperative concerns with postoperative outcomes. We purposively recruited participants with IBD from UK hospital outpatient and community sources, and IBD clinicians from public hospitals. Four focus groups, 29 semistructured patient participant interviews, and 18 clinician interviews were audio recorded, transcribed, and analysed thematically. Participants had a current temporary, recently-reversed, or permanent stoma, or were stoma naive. Four themes emerged: Preoperative concerns and expectations, Patient decision-making, Surgery and recovery, and Long-term outcomes. Participants and clinicians agreed about most preoperative concerns, that outcomes were often better than expected, and support from others with a stoma is beneficial. Patient decision-making involves multiple factors, including disease status. Some clinicians avoid discussing SFS, and the phrase 'last resort' can bias patient perceptions; others recommend early discussion, increasing dialogue when medical management becomes ineffective. The postoperative period is particularly challenging for patients. Stoma acceptance is influenced by personal perceptions and pre- and postoperative clinical and social support. Patients need balanced information on all treatment options, including surgery, from an early stage. Early multidisciplinary team dialogue about SFS, and contact with others living well with a stoma, could enable informed decision-making. Life with a stoma is often better than anticipated, improving quality of life and control. Ongoing specialist nursing support aids recovery and adjustment. © 2018 Crohn’s & Colitis Foundation of America. Published by Oxford University

Parsing a perceptual decision into a sequence of moments of thought

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martin eGraziano

2011-09-01

Full Text Available Theoretical, computational and experimental studies have converged to a model of decision-making in which sensory evidence is stochastically integrated to a threshold, implementing a shift from an analog to a discrete form of computation. Understanding how this process can be chained and sequenced - as virtually all real-life tasks involve a sequence of decisions - remains an open question in neuroscience. We reasoned that incorporating a virtual continuum of possible behavioral outcomes in a simple decision task- a fundamental ingredient of real-life decision making – should result in a progressive sequential approximation to the correct response. We used real-time tracking of motor action in a decision task, as a measure of cognitive states reflecting an internal decision process. We found that response trajectories were spontaneously segmented into a discrete sequence of explorations separated by brief stops (about 200 ms – which remained unconscious to the participants. The characteristics of these stops were indicative of a decision process - a moment of thought: their duration correlated with the difficulty of the decision and with the efficiency of the subsequent exploration. Our findings suggest that simple navigation in an abstract space involves a discrete sequence of explorations and stops and, moreover, that these stops reveal a fingerprint of moments of thought.

Presenting a mapping method based on fuzzy Logic and TOPSIS multi criteria decision-making methods to detect promising porphyry copper mineralization areas in the east of the Sarcheshmeh copper metallogenic district

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shokouh Riahi

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Introduction The growing demand for base metals such as iron, copper, lead and zinc on the one hand and the diminishing of surficial and shallow resources of these elements on the other hand have forced explorationists to focus on detecting deep deposits of these metals. As a result, the discovery of such deep deposits requires more advanced and sophisticated methods in the course of preliminary prospecting stages. Since the discovery of new deposits is getting to be increasingly difficult, deploying new prospecting technologies that employ more deposit attributes in the course of combining exploratory evidence may reduce the exploration costs with lower uncertainties. In the past two decades, a number of new data mining and integrating approaches capable of incorporating direct and indirect mineralization indicators, based on expert knowledge, data, or a combination of both, have been proposed Bonham-Carter, 1994(. In the first step, the input exploratory data layers are corrected and validated through applying some statistical pre-processing algorithms such as background and outlier removal methods. In order to detect a mineralization occurrence, it is necessary to find the proper exploratory geological, geochemical and geophysical data layers which have direct or indirect associations with the governing mineralization followed by constructing these models in an appropriate GIS platform (Malkzewski, 1999. Due to the imperfect available data and a number of unknown parameters affecting the mineralization process, the application of conventional GIS integration methods such as Boolean or weighted overlay or even fuzzy logic methods alone may not produce appropriate results, pointing to a need for deploying multi-criteria decision-making methods such as TOPSIS. In the present study, the pre-processed exploratory data including geological, remotely sensed geophysical and geochemical imagery were used to detect favorable mineralization zones

Uranium exploration/development policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1983-01-01

The Honeymoon joint venturers have been advised that their request for compensation has been refused. This follows the South Australian Government's decision not to grant a mining lease. An application for a retention lease to the joint venturers at Beverley was also refused. The Government has formulated clear guidelines for both retention leases and exploration licences which will be applied to all companies engaged specifically in exploration for uranium

Epistemological tensions in prospective history teachers’ beliefs about the objectives of secondary education

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wansink, B.G.J.; Akkerman, S.F.; Haenen, J.P.P.; Vermunt, Jan; Wubbels, T.

2017-01-01

In recent decades we witnessed ongoing debates about the objectives of history education, with different underlying epistemological perspectives. This qualitative study explored prospective history teachers’ beliefs about these objectives of history education. Prospective history teachers of six

Exploring a clinically friendly web-based approach to clinical decision support linked to the electronic health record: design philosophy, prototype implementation, and framework for assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Perry; Phipps, Michael; Chatterjee, Sharmila; Rajeevan, Nallakkandi; Levin, Forrest; Frawley, Sandra; Tokuno, Hajime

2014-07-01

Computer-based clinical decision support (CDS) is an important component of the electronic health record (EHR). As an increasing amount of CDS is implemented, it will be important that this be accomplished in a fashion that assists in clinical decision making without imposing unacceptable demands and burdens upon the provider's practice. The objective of our study was to explore an approach that allows CDS to be clinician-friendly from a variety of perspectives, to build a prototype implementation that illustrates features of the approach, and to gain experience with a pilot framework for assessment. The paper first discusses the project's design philosophy and goals. It then describes a prototype implementation (Neuropath/CDS) that explores the approach in the domain of neuropathic pain and in the context of the US Veterans Administration EHR. Finally, the paper discusses a framework for assessing the approach, illustrated by a pilot assessment of Neuropath/CDS. The paper describes the operation and technical design of Neuropath/CDS, as well as the results of the pilot assessment, which emphasize the four areas of focus, scope, content, and presentation. The work to date has allowed us to explore various design and implementation issues relating to the approach illustrated in Neuropath/CDS, as well as the development and pilot application of a framework for assessment.

The impact of regional culture on intensive care end of life decision making: an Israeli perspective from the ETHICUS study.

Science.gov (United States)

Ganz, F D; Benbenishty, J; Hersch, M; Fischer, A; Gurman, G; Sprung, C L

2006-04-01

Decisions of patients, families, and health care providers about medical care at the end of life depend on many factors, including the societal culture. A pan-European study was conducted to determine the frequency and types of end of life practices in European intensive care units (ICUs), including those in Israel. Several results of the Israeli subsample were different to those of the overall sample. The objective of this article was to explore these differences and provide a possible explanation based on the impact of culture on end of life decision making. All adult patients admitted consecutively to three Israeli ICUs (n = 2778) who died or underwent any limitation of life saving interventions between 1 January 1999 and 30 June 2000 were studied prospectively (n = 363). These patients were compared with a similar sample taken from the larger study (ethics in European intensive care units: ETHICUS) carried out in 37 European ICUs. Patients were followed until discharge, death, or 2 months from the decision to limit therapy. End of life decisions were prospectively organised into one of five mutually exclusive categories: cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR), brain death, withholding treatment, withdrawing treatment, and active shortening of the dying process (SDP). The data also included patient characteristics (gender, age, ICU admission diagnosis, chronic disorders, date of hospital admission, date and time of decision to limit therapy, date of hospital discharge, date and time of death in hospital), specific therapies limited, and the method of SDP. The majority of patients (n = 252, 69%) had treatment withheld, none underwent SDP, 62 received CPR (17%), 31 had brain death (9%), and 18 underwent withdrawal of treatment (5%). The primary reason given for limiting treatment was that the patient was unresponsive to therapy (n = 187). End of life discussions were held with 132 families (36%), the vast majority of which revolved around withholding treatment (91

An exploration of decision aid effectiveness: the impact of promoting affective vs. deliberative processing on a health-related decision.

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, Esther L; McCaffery, Kirsten; Mullan, Barbara; Juraskova, Ilona

2015-12-01

Decision aids (DAs) are non-directive communication tools that help patients make value-consistent health-care decisions. However, most DAs have been developed without an explicit theoretical framework, resulting in a lack of understanding of how DAs achieve outcomes. To investigate the effect of promoting affective vs. deliberative processing on DA effectiveness based on dual-process theory. One hundred and forty-eight female university students participated in a randomized controlled experiment with three conditions: emotion-focused, information-focused and control. Preference-value consistency, knowledge, decisional conflict and satisfaction were compared across the conditions using planned contrast analyses. The intervention comprised two different DAs and instructional manipulations. The emotion-focused condition received a modified DA with affective content and instructions to induce an affective reaction. The information-focused and control conditions received the same DA without the affective content. The information-focused condition received additional instructions to induce deliberative processing. Controlling for the experiment-wise error rate at P processing may hinder value-consistent decision making, while deliberative processing may enhance decisional satisfaction. This investigation of the effect of affective and deliberative processes in DA-supported decision making has implications for the design and use of DAs. DA effectiveness may be enhanced by incorporating a simple instruction to focus on the details of the information. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Designing Opportunities for Prospective Teachers to Facilitate Mathematics Discussions in Classrooms

Science.gov (United States)

Hunter, Roberta; Anthony, Glenda

2012-01-01

How prospective teachers can best be prepared to teach effectively in mathematics classrooms is a topic of current concern. In this paper, we describe our exploration of ways in which prospective teachers were supported to translate what they learnt in mathematics methods classes into pedagogical practice. We illustrate how the use of discourse…

Solid Waste Management Holistic Decision Modeling

OpenAIRE

World Bank

2008-01-01

This study provides support to the Bank's ability to conduct client dialogue on solid waste management technology selection, and will contribute to client decision-making. The goal of the study was to fully explore the use of the United States Environmental Protection Agency and the Research Triangle Institute (EPA/RTI) holistic decision model to study alternative solid waste systems in a ...

Tests of Cumulative Prospect Theory with graphical displays of probability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael H. Birnbaum

2008-10-01

Full Text Available Recent research reported evidence that contradicts cumulative prospect theory and the priority heuristic. The same body of research also violates two editing principles of original prospect theory: cancellation (the principle that people delete any attribute that is the same in both alternatives before deciding between them and combination (the principle that people combine branches leading to the same consequence by adding their probabilities. This study was designed to replicate previous results and to test whether the violations of cumulative prospect theory might be eliminated or reduced by using formats for presentation of risky gambles in which cancellation and combination could be facilitated visually. Contrary to the idea that decision behavior contradicting cumulative prospect theory and the priority heuristic would be altered by use of these formats, however, data with two new graphical formats as well as fresh replication data continued to show the patterns of evidence that violate cumulative prospect theory, the priority heuristic, and the editing principles of combination and cancellation. Systematic violations of restricted branch independence also contradicted predictions of ``stripped'' prospect theory (subjectively weighted additive utility without the editing rules.

Framing effects in group investment decision making: role of group polarization.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Pi-Yueh; Chiou, Wen-Bin

2008-02-01

Prospect theory proposes that framing effects result in a preference for risk-averse choices in gain situations and risk-seeking choices in loss situations. However, in group polarization situations, groups show a pronounced tendency to shift toward more extreme positions than those they initially held. Whether framing effects in group decision making are more prominent as a result of the group-polarization effect was examined. Purposive sampling of 120 college students (57 men, 63 women; M age = 20.1 yr., SD = 0.9) allowed assessment of relative preference between cautious and risky choices in individual and group decisions. Findings indicated that both group polarization and framing effects occur in investment decisions. More importantly, group decisions in a gain situation appear to be more cautious, i.e., risk averse, than individual decisions, whereas group decisions in the loss situation appear to be more risky than individual decisions. Thus, group decision making may expand framing effects when it comes to investment choices through group polarization.

Teaching Prospect Theory with the "Deal or No Deal" Game Show

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, Ardith; Bittner, Teresa; Makrigeorgis, Christos; Johnson, Gloria; Haefner, Joseph

2010-01-01

Recent evidence indicates that decision makers are more sensitive to potential losses than gains. Loss aversion psychology has led behavioural economists to look beyond expected utility by developing "prospect theory." We demonstrate this theory using the "Deal or No Deal" game show.

Rational decision-making about treatment and care in dementia: a contradiction in terms?

Science.gov (United States)

Wolfs, Claire A G; de Vugt, Marjolein E; Verkaaik, Mike; Haufe, Marc; Verkade, Paul-Jeroen; Verhey, Frans R J; Stevens, Fred

2012-04-01

To gain caregivers' insights into the decision-making process in dementia patients with regard to treatment and care. Four focus group interviews (n=29). The decision-making process consists of three elementary components: (1) identifying an individual's needs; (2) exploring options; and (3) making a choice. The most important phase is the exploration phase as it is crucial for the acceptance of the disease. Furthermore, the decision is experienced more as an emotional choice than a rational one. It is influenced by personal preferences whereas practical aspects do not seem to play a substantial role. Several aspects make decision-making in dementia different from decision-making in the context of other chronic diseases: (1) the difficulty accepting dementia; (2) the progressive nature of dementia; (3) patient's reliance on surrogate decision-making; and (4) strong emotions. Due to these aspects, the decision-making process is very time-consuming, especially the crucial exploration phase. A more active role is required of both the caregiver and the health care professional especially in the exploration phase, enabling easier acceptance and adjustment to the disease. Acceptance is an important condition for reducing anxiety and resistance to care that may offer significant benefits in the future. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A deep knowledge architecture for intelligent support of nuclear waste transportation decisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Batra, D.; Bowen, W.M.; Hill, T.R.; Weeks, K.D.

1988-01-01

The concept of intelligent decision support has been discussed and explored in several recent papers, one of which has suggested the use of a Deep Knowledge Architecture. This paper explores this concept through application to a specific decision environment. The complex problems involved in nuclear waste disposal decisions provide an excellent test case. The resulting architecture uses an integrated, multi-level model base to represent the deep knowledge of the problem. Combined with the surface level knowledge represented by the database, the proposed knowledge base complements that of the decision-maker, allowing analysis at a range of levels of decisions which may also occur at a range of levels

Treatment selection of early stage non-small cell lung cancer: the role of the patient in clinical decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Mokhles, S; Nuyttens, J J M E; de Mol, M; Aerts, J G J V; Maat, A P W M; Birim, Ö; Bogers, A J J C; Takkenberg, J J M

2018-01-15

The objective of this study is to investigate the role and experience of early stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patient in decision making process concerning treatment selection in the current clinical practice. Stage I-II NSCLC patients (surgery 55 patients, SBRT 29 patients, median age 68) were included in this prospective study and completed a questionnaire that explored: (1) perceived patient knowledge of the advantages and disadvantages of the treatment options, (2) experience with current clinical decision making, and (3) the information that the patient reported to have received from their treating physician. This was assessed by multiple-choice, 1-5 Likert Scale, and open questions. The Decisional Conflict Scale was used to assess the decisional conflict. Health related quality of life (HRQoL) was measured with SF-36 questionnaire. In 19% of patients, there was self-reported perceived lack of knowledge about the advantages and disadvantages of the treatment options. Seventy-four percent of patients felt that they were sufficiently involved in decision-making by their physician, and 81% found it important to be involved in decision making. Forty percent experienced decisional conflict, and one-in-five patients to such an extent that it made them feel unsure about the decision. Subscores with regard to feeling uninformed and on uncertainty, contributed the most to decisional conflict, as 36% felt uninformed and 17% of patients were not satisfied with their decision. HRQoL was not influenced by patient experience with decision-making or patient preferences for shared decision making. Dutch early-stage NSCLC patients find it important to be involved in treatment decision making. Yet a substantial proportion experiences decisional conflict and feels uninformed. Better patient information and/or involvement in treatment-decision-making is needed in order to improve patient knowledge and hopefully reduce decisional conflict.

Some new tendencies in uranium exploration of Russia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen Zuyi

2005-01-01

Russia is a country with abundant uranium resources. However, the uranium production in Russia can meet neither the recent nor the long term demands of nuclear power in the country. In addition, the market price of uranium product during the last two years has been going up continuously. The above facts force Russia to adjust its policy for the exploration and the development of uranium resources in the country, such as to strengthen the prospecting and exploration of the unconformity-related uranium deposit, to try to expand new target stratigraphic horizons of paleo-valley type sandstone-hosted uranium deposit and to discover new uranium-mineralized areas, to do economic-technical re-evaluation of previously explored uranium deposits, and to discover new ore-concentrated regions in known U-metallogenic belts. In order to guarantee the successful performance of the above policy, numerous scientific-technological measures have been taken including intensified research on regional metallogeny of uranium. Based on the above situation, the author proposes some corresponding suggestions for uranium prospecting and exploration in China in the future. (authors)

Psychopathic individuals exhibit but do not avoid regret during counterfactual decision making

Science.gov (United States)

Baskin-Sommers, Arielle; Stuppy-Sullivan, Allison M.; Buckholtz, Joshua W.

2016-01-01

Psychopathy is associated with persistent antisocial behavior and a striking lack of regret for the consequences of that behavior. Although explanatory models for psychopathy have largely focused on deficits in affective responsiveness, recent work indicates that aberrant value-based decision making may also play a role. On that basis, some have suggested that psychopathic individuals may be unable to effectively use prospective simulations to update action value estimates during cost–benefit decision making. However, the specific mechanisms linking valuation, affective deficits, and maladaptive decision making in psychopathy remain unclear. Using a counterfactual decision-making paradigm, we found that individuals who scored high on a measure of psychopathy were as or more likely than individuals low on psychopathy to report negative affect in response to regret-inducing counterfactual outcomes. However, despite exhibiting intact affective regret sensitivity, they did not use prospective regret signals to guide choice behavior. In turn, diminished behavioral regret sensitivity predicted a higher number of prior incarcerations, and moderated the relationship between psychopathy and incarceration history. These findings raise the possibility that maladaptive decision making in psychopathic individuals is not a consequence of their inability to generate or experience negative emotions. Rather, antisocial behavior in psychopathy may be driven by a deficit in the generation of forward models that integrate information about rules, costs, and goals with stimulus value representations to promote adaptive behavior. PMID:27911790

Psychopathic individuals exhibit but do not avoid regret during counterfactual decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Baskin-Sommers, Arielle; Stuppy-Sullivan, Allison M; Buckholtz, Joshua W

2016-12-13

Psychopathy is associated with persistent antisocial behavior and a striking lack of regret for the consequences of that behavior. Although explanatory models for psychopathy have largely focused on deficits in affective responsiveness, recent work indicates that aberrant value-based decision making may also play a role. On that basis, some have suggested that psychopathic individuals may be unable to effectively use prospective simulations to update action value estimates during cost-benefit decision making. However, the specific mechanisms linking valuation, affective deficits, and maladaptive decision making in psychopathy remain unclear. Using a counterfactual decision-making paradigm, we found that individuals who scored high on a measure of psychopathy were as or more likely than individuals low on psychopathy to report negative affect in response to regret-inducing counterfactual outcomes. However, despite exhibiting intact affective regret sensitivity, they did not use prospective regret signals to guide choice behavior. In turn, diminished behavioral regret sensitivity predicted a higher number of prior incarcerations, and moderated the relationship between psychopathy and incarceration history. These findings raise the possibility that maladaptive decision making in psychopathic individuals is not a consequence of their inability to generate or experience negative emotions. Rather, antisocial behavior in psychopathy may be driven by a deficit in the generation of forward models that integrate information about rules, costs, and goals with stimulus value representations to promote adaptive behavior.

Decisions under risk in Parkinson's disease: preserved evaluation of probability and magnitude.

Science.gov (United States)

Sharp, Madeleine E; Viswanathan, Jayalakshmi; McKeown, Martin J; Appel-Cresswell, Silke; Stoessl, A Jon; Barton, Jason J S

2013-11-01

Unmedicated Parkinson's disease patients tend to be risk-averse while dopaminergic treatment causes a tendency to take risks. While dopamine agonists may result in clinically apparent impulse control disorders, treatment with levodopa also causes shift in behaviour associated with an enhanced response to rewards. Two important determinants in decision-making are how subjects perceive the magnitude and probability of outcomes. Our objective was to determine if patients with Parkinson's disease on or off levodopa showed differences in their perception of value when making decisions under risk. The Vancouver Gambling task presents subjects with a choice between one prospect with larger outcome and a second with higher probability. Eighteen age-matched controls and eighteen patients with Parkinson's disease before and after levodopa were tested. In the Gain Phase subjects chose between one prospect with higher probability and another with larger reward to maximize their gains. In the Loss Phase, subjects played to minimize their losses. Patients with Parkinson's disease, on or off levodopa, were similar to controls when evaluating gains. However, in the Loss Phase before levodopa, they were more likely to avoid the prospect with lower probability but larger loss, as indicated by the steeper slope of their group psychometric function (t(24) = 2.21, p = 0.04). Modelling with prospect theory suggested that this was attributable to a 28% overestimation of the magnitude of loss, rather than an altered perception of its probability. While pre-medicated patients with Parkinson's disease show risk-aversion for large losses, patients on levodopa have normal perception of magnitude and probability for both loss and gain. The finding of accurate and normally biased decisions under risk in medicated patients with PD is important because it indicates that, if there is indeed anomalous risk-seeking behaviour in such a cohort, it may derive from abnormalities in components of

Updating Optimal Decisions Using Game Theory and Exploring Risk Behavior Through Response Surface Methodology

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Jordan, Jeremy D

2007-01-01

.... Methodology is developed that allows a decision maker to change his perceived optimal policy based on available knowledge of the opponents strategy, where the opponent is a rational decision maker...

Complex decision-making: initial results of an empirical study

OpenAIRE

Pier Luigi Baldi

2011-01-01

A brief survey of key literature on emotions and decision-making introduces an empirical study of a group of university students exploring the effects of decision-making complexity on error risk. The results clearly show that decision-making under stress in the experimental group produces significantly more errors than in the stress-free control group.

Uranium exploration in Australia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Battey, G.C.; Hawkins, B.W.

1977-01-01

As a result of exploration which recommenced in 1966 Australia's uranium reserves increased from 6,200 tonnes in 1967 to 227,000 tonnes uranium by June 1976. Most discoveries in the early 1950's were made by prospectors. The increase in reserves during the past decade is the result of exploration by companies utilising improved technology in areas selected as geologically favourable. These reserves were established at relatively low cost. In the Alligator Rivers Uranium Province the ''vein'' type deposits at Jabiluka, Ranger, Koongarra and Nabarlek contain 17% of the world's reserves. Most of these discoveries resulted from the investigation of airborne radiometric anomalies but cover over the prospective host rocks will necessitate the future use of costlier and more indirect exploration techniques. There was exploration for sandstone type uranium deposits in most of Australia's sedimentary basins. The greatest success was achieved in the Lake Frome Basin in South Australia. Other deposits were found in the Ngalia and Amadeus Basins in Central Australia and in the Westmoreland area, N.W. Queensland. A major uranium deposit was found in an unusual environment at Yeelirrie, Western Australia where carnotite occurs in a caliche and clay host which fills a shallow, ancient drainage channel. Although caliche occurrences are relatively widespread on the Precambrian shield no other economic deposit has been found. Recent discoveries in the Georgetown area of Queensland indicate the presence of another uranium province but it is too early to assess its potential. The ore occurs in clastic sediments at the base of a volcanic sequence overlying a Precambrian basement. Several companies which have established large uranium reserves have a number of additional attractive prospects. Exploration activity in Australia in 1975 was at a lower level than in previous years, but the potential for discovering further deposits is considered to be high

Decision analytic model exploring the cost and cost-offset implications of street triage.

Science.gov (United States)

Heslin, Margaret; Callaghan, Lynne; Packwood, Martin; Badu, Vincent; Byford, Sarah

2016-02-11

To determine if street triage is effective at reducing the total number of people with mental health needs detained under section 136, and is associated with cost savings compared to usual police response. Routine data from a 6-month period in the year before and after the implementation of a street triage scheme were used to explore detentions under section 136, and to populate a decision analytic model to explore the impact of street triage on the cost to the NHS and the criminal justice sector of supporting people with a mental health need. A predefined area of Sussex, South East England, UK. All people who were detained under section 136 within the predefined area or had contact with the street triage team. The street triage model used here was based on a psychiatric nurse attending incidents with a police constable. The primary outcome was change in the total number of detentions under section 136 between the before and after periods assessed. Secondary analysis focused on whether the additional costs of street triage were offset by cost savings as a result of changes in detentions under section 136. Detentions under section 136 in the street triage period were significantly lower than in the usual response period (118 vs 194 incidents, respectively; χ(2) (1df) 18.542, p<0.001). Total NHS and criminal justice costs were estimated to be £1043 in the street triage period compared to £1077 in the usual response period. Investment in street triage was offset by savings as a result of reduced detentions under section 136, particularly detentions in custody. Data available did not include assessment of patient outcomes, so a full economic evaluation was not possible. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Non-Conscious vs. Deliberate Dynamic Decision-Making—A Pilot Experiment

OpenAIRE

Andreas Größler; Etiënne Rouwette; Jac Vennix

2016-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to explore the effects of non-conscious vs. deliberate ways of making decisions in a dynamic decision-making task. An experimental setting is used to study this question; three experimental groups are distinguished: immediate decision-making (only very limited time for deliberate cognitive processing), considerate decision-making (relatively long time for deliberate cognitive processing), and distracted decision-making (time for non-conscious cognitive processing ...

Non-conscious vs. deliberate dynamic decision-making—a pilot experiment

OpenAIRE

Grössler, A.; Rouwette, E.A.J.A.; Vennix, J.A.M.; Größler, A.

2016-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to explore the effects of non-conscious vs. deliberate ways of making decisions in a dynamic decision-making task. An experimental setting is used to study this question; three experimental groups are distinguished: immediate decision-making (only very limited time for deliberate cognitive processing), considerate decision-making (relatively long time for deliberate cognitive processing), and distracted decision-making (time for non-conscious cognitive processing ...

Non-conscious vs. deliberate dynamic decision-making—a pilot experiment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Grössler, A.; Rouwette, E.A.J.A.; Vennix, J.A.M.; Größler, A.

2016-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to explore the effects of non-conscious vs. deliberate ways of making decisions in a dynamic decision-making task. An experimental setting is used to study this question; three experimental groups are distinguished: immediate decision-making (only very limited time for

Decision-making in adolescent females who deliberately self-harm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rigler Tristan

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Self-harming behaviour most commonly begins in adolescence and is more frequent among adolescent females. We explored the hypothesis that adolescent females who deliberately selfharm were more likely to perform worse on a decision-making task. Previous research in adolescents who self-harm reported impaired decision-making. However, research put little emphasis on older adolescents and the emotional learning. In our research, we presented the Iowa Gambling Task to 35 adolescent females who self-harmed and were treated at a psychiatric clinic, and to 35 healthy female controls. Our results show that in comparison to the control group the adolescents who self-harm took more risky decisions and were less concerned about the outcome. In addition, the clinical group also focused more on immediate gains and showed a reduced ability to learn from poor decisions in the past. Further research is suggested to explore the potential neurological correlates of decision-making and selfharming behaviour.

The decision-making threshold and the factors that affect it: A qualitative study of patients' decision-making in knee replacement surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Barlow, T; Scott, P; Thomson, L; Griffin, D; Realpe, A

2018-03-01

Osteoarthritis is a significant cause of burden to the ageing population and knee replacement is a common operation for treatment of end-stage disease. We aimed to explore these factors to help understand patients' decision-making, which is critical in informing patient-centred care. These can be used to enhance decision-making and dialogue between clinicians and patients, allowing a more informed choice. The study consisted of two focus groups, in a patient cohort after total knee replacement followed by more in-depth interviews to further test and explore themes from the focus groups, in patients in either the deliberation stage or the decision-making stage. Using qualitative research methods (iterative thematic analysis) reviewing decision-making and deliberation phases of making informed choices we found nine key themes that emerged from the study groups. An awareness of the deliberation phase, the factors that influence it, the stress associated with it, preferred models of care, and the influence of the decision-making threshold will aid useful communication between doctors and patients. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Barriers and facilitators to the dissemination of DECISION+, a continuing medical education program for optimizing decisions about antibiotics for acute respiratory infections in primary care: A study protocol

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gagnon Marie-Pierre

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background In North America, acute respiratory infections are the main reason for doctors' visits in primary care. Family physicians and their patients overuse antibiotics for treating acute respiratory infections. In a pilot clustered randomized trial, we showed that DECISION+, a continuing medical education program in shared decision making, has the potential to reduce the overuse of antibiotics for treating acute respiratory infections. DECISION+ learning activities consisted of three interactive sessions of three hours each, reminders at the point of care, and feedback to doctors on their agreement with patients about comfort with the decision whether to use antibiotics. The objective of this study is to identify the barriers and facilitators to physicians' participation in DECISION+ with the goal of disseminating DECISION+ on a larger scale. Methods/design This descriptive study will use mixed methods and retrospective and prospective components. All analyses will be based on an adapted version of the Ottawa Model of Research Use. First, we will use qualitative methods to analyze the following retrospective data from the pilot study: the logbooks of eight research assistants, the transcriptions of 15 training sessions, and 27 participant evaluations of the DECISION+ training sessions. Second, we will collect prospective data in semi-structured focus groups composed of family physicians to identify barriers and facilitators to the dissemination of a future training program similar to DECISION+. All 39 family physicians exposed to DECISION+ during the pilot project will be eligible to participate. We will use a self-administered questionnaire based on Azjen's Theory of Planned Behaviour to assess participants' intention to take part in future training programs similar to DECISION+. Discussion Barriers and facilitators identified in this project will guide modifications to DECISION+, a continuing medical education program in shared

Complex decision-making: initial results of an empirical study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pier Luigi Baldi

2011-09-01

Full Text Available A brief survey of key literature on emotions and decision-making introduces an empirical study of a group of university students exploring the effects of decision-making complexity on error risk. The results clearly show that decision-making under stress in the experimental group produces significantly more errors than in the stress-free control group.

Hydrokinetic Energy Conversion Systems: Prospects and ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Being also a variant of the small hydropower scheme, which are usually site specific, much of the studies done on the technology are suited to specific sites and the peculiar hydrology of those localities. This paper, thus, explores this new emerging technology and its prospects, potentials, challenges and frameworks for its ...

'Heads you win, tails I lose': a critical incident study of GPs' decisions about emergency admission referrals.

Science.gov (United States)

Dempsey, Owen P; Bekker, Hilary L

2002-12-01

Acute hospital Trusts' inability to cope with the numbers of emergency admissions has led to the production of guidelines by the Department of Health aimed at reducing inappropriate admissions by GPs. There is a paucity of research describing GPs' decisions to (not) admit patients and it is unclear how effective these guidelines are in changing these practices. To describe GPs' decision-making about referrals for emergency hospital admissions. Observational design using the critical incident technique to elicit data. Eight GPs in West Yorkshire recorded details of memorable emergency admission decisions, both prospective and retrospective consultations. The transcript data were classified by theme using NUD*IST. Forty prospective and 8 retrospective consultations were analysed. Factors affecting GPs' decisions were:Identification of all consequences for all stakeholders in the decision. Emotional impact on the GP of managing these conflicting needs. 'Peer review' of the GP's professionalism about the decision. Contextual pressures limiting effectiveness of GPs' decision-making. Referral decisions require the evaluation of several conflicting consequences for many stakeholders in time-pressured and peer-reviewed situations. These factors encourage the use of heuristics, i.e. GPs' judgements will be influenced more by the social context of the choice than information about the patient's condition. Emergency referral guidelines provide more information to evaluate from another stakeholder; introducing guidelines is likely to increase GPs' use of heuristics and the making of less optimal decisions.

Practical measures to promote exploration in developing countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sohall, H.M.

1991-01-01

Since 1950, Pakistan has gone through several phases of hydrocarbon exploration, but despite our geologically prospective areas, our discovery and development of substantial reserves, and our existing infrastructure facilities, exploration has been limited. We attribute this limited exploration to the absence of long-term gas-development strategies, to the gas-price formula, and to legislative and contractual frameworks for concession agreements in use for most of our exploration history. This paper examines Pakistan's exploration history and reveals current gas-development strategies. It also discusses the revised pricing formula and legislation to benefit other developing countries that are in similar situations and want to accelerate the pace of their exploration activities

Unpacking Personal Identities for Teaching Mathematics within the Context of Prospective Teacher Education

Science.gov (United States)

Hodges, Thomas E.; Hodge, Lynn Liao

2017-01-01

This article explores the personal identities of two prospective elementary teachers as they progressed from mathematics methods coursework into their capstone student teaching semester. Results indicate that both prospective teachers perceived contrasting obligations of effective mathematics teaching in the teacher education and student teaching…

Entrepreneurs` Cognitive and Decision Making Styles

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Mahmoud Motvaseli

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The main purpose of this study is to explore the relation between decision-making styles which are measured by the General decision-making style (GDMS test and information processing styles which are often termed cognitive styles and are, in this study, measured by Cognitive Style Inventory. The authors directed a survey research on 162 Iranian students. Structural equation modeling techniques were used to measure the impact of cognitive styles on decision-making styles. The authors found that cognitive styles have a positive impact on decision-making styles. In spite of the abundant research on factors that affect decision-making styles, few researches have tested the relationship between cognitive styles and decision-making styles. This study examines the impact of cognitive styles on decision-making styles in Iran. This study, like most research paper studies, cannot easily be generalized. Furthermore, the results of this study could be affected by economic conditions.

An approach to prospective consequential life cycle assessment and net energy analysis of distributed electricity generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, Christopher; Gilbert, Paul; Raugei, Marco; Mander, Sarah; Leccisi, Enrica

2017-01-01

Increasing distributed renewable electricity generation is one of a number of technology pathways available to policy makers to meet environmental and other sustainability goals. Determining the efficacy of such a pathway for a national electricity system implies evaluating whole system change in future scenarios. Life cycle assessment (LCA) and net energy analysis (NEA) are two methodologies suitable for prospective and consequential analysis of energy performance and associated impacts. This paper discusses the benefits and limitations of prospective and consequential LCA and NEA analysis of distributed generation. It concludes that a combined LCA and NEA approach is a valuable tool for decision makers if a number of recommendations are addressed. Static and dynamic temporal allocation are both needed for a fair comparison of distributed renewables with thermal power stations to account for their different impact profiles over time. The trade-offs between comprehensiveness and uncertainty in consequential analysis should be acknowledged, with system boundary expansion and system simulation models limited to those clearly justified by the research goal. The results of this approach are explorative, rather than for accounting purposes; this interpretive remit, and the assumptions in scenarios and system models on which results are contingent, must be clear to end users. - Highlights: • A common LCA and NEA framework for prospective, consequential analysis is discussed. • Approach to combined LCA and NEA of distributed generation scenarios is proposed. • Static and dynamic temporal allocation needed to assess distributed generation uptake.

The Renewable Energy Data Explorer: Mapping Our Renewable Energy Future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2017-04-13

The Renewable Energy (RE) Data Explorer, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, is an innovative web-based platform that allows users to visualize and analyze renewable energy potential. The RE Data Explorer informs prospecting, integrated planning, and policymaking to enable low emission development.

Expediting evidence synthesis for healthcare decision-making: exploring attitudes and perceptions towards rapid reviews using Q methodology

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Shannon E. Kelly

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Background Rapid reviews expedite the knowledge synthesis process with the goal of providing timely information to healthcare decision-makers who want to use evidence-informed policy and practice approaches. A range of opinions and viewpoints on rapid reviews is thought to exist; however, no research to date has formally captured these views. This paper aims to explore evidence producer and knowledge user attitudes and perceptions towards rapid reviews. Methods A Q methodology study was conducted to identify central viewpoints about rapid reviews based on a broad topic discourse. Participants rank-ordered 50 text statements and explained their Q-sort in free-text comments. Individual Q-sorts were analysed using Q-Assessor (statistical method: factor analysis with varimax rotation. Factors, or salient viewpoints on rapid reviews, were identified, interpreted and described. Results Analysis of the 11 individual Q sorts identified three prominent viewpoints: Factor A cautions against the use of study design labels to make judgements. Factor B maintains that rapid reviews should be the exception and not the rule. Factor C focuses on the practical needs of the end-user over the review process. Conclusion Results show that there are opposing viewpoints on rapid reviews, yet some unity exists. The three factors described offer insight into how and why various stakeholders act as they do and what issues may need to be resolved before increase uptake of the evidence from rapid reviews can be realized in healthcare decision-making environments.

Expediting evidence synthesis for healthcare decision-making: exploring attitudes and perceptions towards rapid reviews using Q methodology

Science.gov (United States)

Moher, David; Clifford, Tammy J.

2016-01-01

Background Rapid reviews expedite the knowledge synthesis process with the goal of providing timely information to healthcare decision-makers who want to use evidence-informed policy and practice approaches. A range of opinions and viewpoints on rapid reviews is thought to exist; however, no research to date has formally captured these views. This paper aims to explore evidence producer and knowledge user attitudes and perceptions towards rapid reviews. Methods A Q methodology study was conducted to identify central viewpoints about rapid reviews based on a broad topic discourse. Participants rank-ordered 50 text statements and explained their Q-sort in free-text comments. Individual Q-sorts were analysed using Q-Assessor (statistical method: factor analysis with varimax rotation). Factors, or salient viewpoints on rapid reviews, were identified, interpreted and described. Results Analysis of the 11 individual Q sorts identified three prominent viewpoints: Factor A cautions against the use of study design labels to make judgements. Factor B maintains that rapid reviews should be the exception and not the rule. Factor C focuses on the practical needs of the end-user over the review process. Conclusion Results show that there are opposing viewpoints on rapid reviews, yet some unity exists. The three factors described offer insight into how and why various stakeholders act as they do and what issues may need to be resolved before increase uptake of the evidence from rapid reviews can be realized in healthcare decision-making environments. PMID:27761324

Research on geochemical exploration in geotherm development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hirowatari, Kazuo; Imaizumi, Yukio; Koga, Akito; Iwanaga, Tatsuto.

1987-01-01

The decisive factor of geotherm development is to improve the exploration techniques. By effectively carrying out the selection of promising development spots and the decision of well drilling positions, the geotherm development exceeding existing energy sources becomes feasible. There have been many problems in conventional geotherm exploration such as the high cost and long work period, therefore, it was decided to advance the research on geochemical exploration techniques which are relatively simple and can be carried out with low cost. When the techniques of geochemistry are used, for example, in the case that there are hot springs or fumaroles, the temperature, origin, properties and so on of underground hot water reservoirs can be estimated from their chemical composition. The method of examining the mercury concentration in soil and soil air has been in practical use in the geothermal districts where the ground surface symptom lacks. This time, the method of investigation using radon, thoron and gamma ray as the exploration indices was newly studied. The index compositions for geochemical exploration, new exploration index compositions, the method of measurement, the basic investigation and on-the-spot investigation are reported. (Kako, I.)

PRACTICE AND BUSINESS STRATEGIES FOR DECISION -MAKING IN THE AUTOMOTIVE SPARE PARTS SECTOR

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Neyda Ibañez

2017-09-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to describe the practices and prospective strategies used by the Venezuelan automotive spare parts sector. The study was located in the post positivist paradigm using the descriptive method of scientist mode. The results showed that the industry uses more than 54.83 percent in qualitative prospective methods for constructing scenarios that enable their decision making, and 19,35 percent in quantitative forward-looking strategies, and the rest corresponding to a 25,82 percent in practices and prospective strategies that combine both. We conclude that made a new type of design with nine steps to build their scenarios.

Developing Decision-Making Skill: Experiential Learning in Computer Games

OpenAIRE

Kurt A. April; Katja M. J. Goebel; Eddie Blass; Jonathan Foster-Pedley

2012-01-01

This paper explores the value that computer and video games bring to learning and leadership and explores how games work as learning environments and the impact they have on personal development. The study looks at decisiveness, decision-making ability and styles, and on how this leadership-related skill is learnt through different paradigms. The paper compares the learning from a lecture to the learning from a designed computer game, both of which have the same content through the use of a s...

Decision making in midwifery: rationality and intuition.

Science.gov (United States)

Steinhauer, Suyai

2015-04-01

Decision making in midwifery is a complex process that shapes and underpins clinical practice and determines, to a large extent, the quality of care. Effective decision making and professional accountability are central to clinical governance, and being able.to justify all decisions is a professional and legal requirement. At the same time, there is an emphasis in midwifery on shared decision making, and keeping women at the centre of their care, and research reveals that feelings of choice, control and autonomy are central to a positive birth experience. However the extent to which decisions are really shared and care truly woman-centred is debatable and affected by environment and culture. Using a case study of a decision made in clinical practice around amniotomy, this article explores the role of the intuitive thinking system in midwifery decision making, and highlights the importance of involving women in the decision making process.

Resisting Negative Images and Stereotypes: One Latina Prospective Teacher’s Story

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Terri L. Rodriguez

2010-06-01

Full Text Available This article focuses on one Latina prospective teacher’s act of resisting negative stereotypes regarding attire imposed upon her by a white female principal. The event is embedded within a larger life history study that explores the experiences of bilingual Latino prospective teachers in the elementary education program of a large Midwestern university. The selected narrative is contextualized in relation to resistance narratives. Patricia Morales tells about her experiences in U.S. schools. It explores how Patricia’s life history is marked by experiences of discrimination, yet how her constructions of these events represent “counterstories” (Delgado, 2000; Solorzano & Yosso, 2002 through which she “talks back” (hooks, 1989 to distorted images and stereotypes. Patricia’s narratives are shown to constitute creative acts of resistance through which she negotiates a positive and affirming identity (Suarez-Orozco & Suarez-Orozco, 2001 as a Latina prospective teacher.

Prospective Turkish Primary Teachers' Views about the Use of Computers in Mathematics Education

Science.gov (United States)

Dogan, Mustafa

2012-01-01

The use of computers and technology in mathematics education affects students' learning, achievements, and affective dimensions. This study explores prospective Turkish primary mathematics teachers' views about the use of computers in mathematics education. The sample comprised of 129 fourth-year prospective primary mathematics teachers from two…

Promoting Shared Decision Making in Disorders of Sex Development (DSD): Decision Aids and Support Tools.

Science.gov (United States)

Siminoff, L A; Sandberg, D E

2015-05-01

Specific complaints and grievances from adult patients with disorders of sex development (DSD), and their advocates center around the lack of information or misinformation they were given about their condition and feeling stigmatized and shamed by the secrecy surrounding their condition and its management. Many also attribute poor sexual function to damaging genital surgery and/or repeated, insensitive genital examinations. These reports suggest the need to reconsider the decision-making process for the treatment of children born with DSD. This paper proposes that shared decision making, an important concept in adult health care, be operationalized for the major decisions commonly encountered in DSD care and facilitated through the utilization of decision aids and support tools. This approach may help patients and their families make informed decisions that are better aligned with their personal values and goals. It may also lead to greater confidence in decision making with greater satisfaction and less regret. A brief review of the past and current approach to DSD decision making is provided, along with a review of shared decision making and decision aids and support tools. A case study explores the need and potential utility of this suggested new approach. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Dopaminergic Drug Effects on Probability Weighting during Risky Decision Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Ojala, Karita E; Janssen, Lieneke K; Hashemi, Mahur M; Timmer, Monique H M; Geurts, Dirk E M; Ter Huurne, Niels P; Cools, Roshan; Sescousse, Guillaume

2018-01-01

Dopamine has been associated with risky decision-making, as well as with pathological gambling, a behavioral addiction characterized by excessive risk-taking behavior. However, the specific mechanisms through which dopamine might act to foster risk-taking and pathological gambling remain elusive. Here we test the hypothesis that this might be achieved, in part, via modulation of subjective probability weighting during decision making. Human healthy controls ( n = 21) and pathological gamblers ( n = 16) played a decision-making task involving choices between sure monetary options and risky gambles both in the gain and loss domains. Each participant played the task twice, either under placebo or the dopamine D 2 /D 3 receptor antagonist sulpiride, in a double-blind counterbalanced design. A prospect theory modelling approach was used to estimate subjective probability weighting and sensitivity to monetary outcomes. Consistent with prospect theory, we found that participants presented a distortion in the subjective weighting of probabilities, i.e., they overweighted low probabilities and underweighted moderate to high probabilities, both in the gain and loss domains. Compared with placebo, sulpiride attenuated this distortion in the gain domain. Across drugs, the groups did not differ in their probability weighting, although gamblers consistently underweighted losing probabilities in the placebo condition. Overall, our results reveal that dopamine D 2 /D 3 receptor antagonism modulates the subjective weighting of probabilities in the gain domain, in the direction of more objective, economically rational decision making.

Dopaminergic Drug Effects on Probability Weighting during Risky Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

Timmer, Monique H. M.; ter Huurne, Niels P.

2018-01-01

Abstract Dopamine has been associated with risky decision-making, as well as with pathological gambling, a behavioral addiction characterized by excessive risk-taking behavior. However, the specific mechanisms through which dopamine might act to foster risk-taking and pathological gambling remain elusive. Here we test the hypothesis that this might be achieved, in part, via modulation of subjective probability weighting during decision making. Human healthy controls (n = 21) and pathological gamblers (n = 16) played a decision-making task involving choices between sure monetary options and risky gambles both in the gain and loss domains. Each participant played the task twice, either under placebo or the dopamine D2/D3 receptor antagonist sulpiride, in a double-blind counterbalanced design. A prospect theory modelling approach was used to estimate subjective probability weighting and sensitivity to monetary outcomes. Consistent with prospect theory, we found that participants presented a distortion in the subjective weighting of probabilities, i.e., they overweighted low probabilities and underweighted moderate to high probabilities, both in the gain and loss domains. Compared with placebo, sulpiride attenuated this distortion in the gain domain. Across drugs, the groups did not differ in their probability weighting, although gamblers consistently underweighted losing probabilities in the placebo condition. Overall, our results reveal that dopamine D2/D3 receptor antagonism modulates the subjective weighting of probabilities in the gain domain, in the direction of more objective, economically rational decision making. PMID:29632870

Exploring the disclosure decisions made by physiotherapists with a specific learning difficulty.

Science.gov (United States)

Yeowell, G; Rooney, J; Goodwin, P C

2018-06-01

To explore the disclosure decisions made in the workplace by physiotherapy staff with a specific learning difficulty (SpLD). An exploratory qualitative design was used, which was informed by the social model of disability. The research was undertaken in North West England. It is presented according to the Consolidated Criteria for Reporting Qualitative Research. A purposive sample of eight physiotherapists recognised as having a SpLD were recruited. All participants had studied on one of two programmes at a university in England between 2004-2012. Their NHS workplace experience was from across the UK. In-depth, semi-structured interviews were undertaken within the university setting or via telephone. Interviews lasted 40 to 70minutes and were digitally recorded. An interview guide was used to direct the interview. Interview data were transcribed verbatim and analysed using thematic analysis. Four participants were female. The mean number of years qualified as a physiotherapist was 4.5years (SD=2.27). Three themes were identified: 'Disclosing during the workplace application'; 'Positive about disabled people scheme'; 'Disclosing in the workplace'. Disclosure of dyslexia is a selective process and is a central dilemma in the lives of individuals who have a concealable stigmatised identity. As a consequence, physiotherapy staff with dyslexia may choose to conceal their disability and not disclose to their employer. In order for staff with dyslexia to get the support they need in the workplace, disclosure is recommended. A number of recommendations have been made to facilitate the disclosure process. Copyright © 2017 Chartered Society of Physiotherapy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Human decision error (HUMDEE) trees

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ostrom, L.T.

1993-01-01

Graphical presentations of human actions in incident and accident sequences have been used for many years. However, for the most part, human decision making has been underrepresented in these trees. This paper presents a method of incorporating the human decision process into graphical presentations of incident/accident sequences. This presentation is in the form of logic trees. These trees are called Human Decision Error Trees or HUMDEE for short. The primary benefit of HUMDEE trees is that they graphically illustrate what else the individuals involved in the event could have done to prevent either the initiation or continuation of the event. HUMDEE trees also present the alternate paths available at the operator decision points in the incident/accident sequence. This is different from the Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP) event trees. There are many uses of these trees. They can be used for incident/accident investigations to show what other courses of actions were available and for training operators. The trees also have a consequence component so that not only the decision can be explored, also the consequence of that decision

THE MAKING OF DECISION MAKING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leonardo Yuji Tamura

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Quantum Electronics was a Brazilian startup in the 1990's that was acquired by an American equity fund in 2012. They are currently the largest manufacturer of vehicle tracking and infotainment systems. The company was founded by three college friends, who are currently executives at the company: Camilo Santos, Pedro Barbosa and Luana Correa. Edward Hutter was sent by the equity fund to take over the company’s finances, but is having trouble making organizational decisions with his colleagues. As a consultant, I was called to help them improve their decision making process and project prioritization. I adapted and deployed our firm's methodology, but, in the end, its adequacy is shown to be very much in question. The author of this case study intends to explore how actual organizational decisions rely on different decision models and their assumptions, .as well as demonstrate that a decision model is neither absolutely good nor bad as its quality is context dependent.

Unrealistic optimism and decision making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Božović Bojana

2009-01-01

Full Text Available One of the leading descriptive theories of decision-making under risk, Tversky & Kahneman's Prospect theory, reveals that normative explanation of decisionmaking, based only on principle of maximizing outcomes expected utility, is unsustainable. It also underlines the effect of alternative factors on decision-making. Framing effect relates to an influence that verbal formulation of outcomes has on choosing between certain and risky outcomes; in negative frame people tend to be risk seeking, whereas in positive frame people express risk averse tendencies. Individual decisions are not based on objective probabilities of outcomes, but on subjective probabilities that depend on outcome desirability. Unrealistically pessimistic subjects assign lower probabilities (than the group average to the desired outcomes, while unrealistically optimistic subjects assign higher probabilities (than the group average to the desired outcomes. Experiment was conducted in order to test the presumption that there's a relation between unrealistic optimism and decision-making under risk. We expected optimists to be risk seeking, and pessimist to be risk averse. We also expected such cognitive tendencies, if they should become manifest, to be framing effect resistant. Unrealistic optimism scale was applied, followed by the questionnaire composed of tasks of decision-making under risk. Results within the whole sample, and results of afterwards extracted groups of pessimists and optimists both revealed dominant risk seeking tendency that is resistant to the influence of subjective probabilities as well as to the influence of frame in which the outcome is presented.

Optimal exploration target zones

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Debba, Pravesh

2008-09-01

Full Text Available prospective map are the weights-of-evidence (WofE) method logistic regression canonical favorability analysis neural networks evidential belief functions Optimal Exploration Target Zones Debba, Carranza, Stein, van der Meer Introduction to Remote.... . . ): FITNESS FUNCTION φWMSD+V(Sn) = λ N(A) ∑ −→x ∈A P(−→x ) ∣ ∣ ∣ ∣−→x −QSn( −→x ) ∣ ∣ ∣ ∣ +(1− λ)s2(OSn) , (2) where QSn( −→x ) is the location vector of an optimal exploration focal point in Sn nearest to −→x , and s2(OSn) is the variance...

Child-parent shared decision making about asthma management.

Science.gov (United States)

Garnett, Victoria; Smith, Joanna; Ormandy, Paula

2016-05-09

Aim To explore and describe child-parent shared decision making for the management of childhood asthma. Methods A qualitative, descriptive, interview-based study was undertaken. Eight children and nine parents participated. The framework approach underpinned data analysis. Findings A dynamic model of the way children and parents transfer, shift and share asthma management decisions was uncovered. Asthma management decisions between children and parents were non-linear, with responsibility transferring from parent to child under different conditions. Children made a range of decisions about their asthma, often sharing decisions with their parents. However, during acute illness episodes, children often relied on parents to make decisions about their asthma. Conclusion Neither the child nor parent has complete autonomy over asthma management decisions. Decision making is a dynamic, shifting and shared process, dependent on contextual factors and child and parent decision preferences.

GM ethical decision making in practice

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Donald Bruce

2002-09-01

Full Text Available Celia Deane-Drummond's case for wisdom as an approach to ethical decision making and her doubts about case-oriented methodology are critiqued with reference to the SRT Project's Engineering Genesis study. Its approach is explored in practical decisions on various real life examples of genetic modification in crops and animals. It involved both intrinsic and consequential approaches, and identified key value positions behind different policies and stakeholders. The paper also clarifies the relationship between reactive (cost-benefit and precautionary risk assessment, explaining their strengths and limitations, and the role of underlying values in both forms of risk decision making.

Estimating the Prospectivity of Geothermal Resources Using the Concept of Hydrogeologic Windows

Science.gov (United States)

Bielicki, Jeffrey; Blackwell, David; Harp, Dylan; Karra, Satish; Kelley, Richard; Kelley, Shari; Middleton, Richard; Person, Mark; Sutula, Glenn; Witcher, James

2016-04-01

In this Geothermal Play Fairways Analysis project we sought to develop new ways to analyze geologic, geochemical, and geophysical data to reduce the risk and increase the prospects of successful geothermal exploration and development. We collected, organized, and analyzed data from southwest New Mexico in the context of an integrated framework that combines the data for various signatures of a geothermal resource into a cohesive analysis of the presence of heat, fluid, and permeability. We incorporated data on structural characteristics (earthquakes, geophysical logs, fault location and age, basement depth), topographic and water table elevations, conservative ion concentrations, and thermal information (heat flow, bottom hole temperature, discharge temperature, and basement heat generation). These data were combined to create maps that indicate structural analysis, slope, geothermometry, and heat. We also mapped discharge areas (to constrain elevations where groundwater may be discharged through modern thermal springs or paleo-thermal springs) and subcrops: possible erosionally- or structurally-controlled breaches in regional-scale aquitards that form the basis of our hydrogeologic windows concept. These two maps were particularly useful in identifying known geothermal systems and narrowing the search for unknown geothermal prospects. We further refined the "prospectivity" of the areas within the subcrops and discharge areas by developing and applying a new method for spatial association analysis to data on known and inferred faults, earthquakes, geochemical thermometers, and heat flow. This new methodology determines the relationships of the location and magnitudes of observations of these data with known geothermal sites. The results of each of the six spatial association analyses were weighted between 0 and 1 and summed to produce a prospectivity score between 0 and 6, with 6 indicating highest geothermal potential. The mean value of prospectivity for all

Decision forests for computer vision and medical image analysis

CERN Document Server

Criminisi, A

2013-01-01

This practical and easy-to-follow text explores the theoretical underpinnings of decision forests, organizing the vast existing literature on the field within a new, general-purpose forest model. Topics and features: with a foreword by Prof. Y. Amit and Prof. D. Geman, recounting their participation in the development of decision forests; introduces a flexible decision forest model, capable of addressing a large and diverse set of image and video analysis tasks; investigates both the theoretical foundations and the practical implementation of decision forests; discusses the use of decision for

Decision aids for multiple-decision disease management as affected by weather input errors.

Science.gov (United States)

Pfender, W F; Gent, D H; Mahaffee, W F; Coop, L B; Fox, A D

2011-06-01

Many disease management decision support systems (DSSs) rely, exclusively or in part, on weather inputs to calculate an indicator for disease hazard. Error in the weather inputs, typically due to forecasting, interpolation, or estimation from off-site sources, may affect model calculations and management decision recommendations. The extent to which errors in weather inputs affect the quality of the final management outcome depends on a number of aspects of the disease management context, including whether management consists of a single dichotomous decision, or of a multi-decision process extending over the cropping season(s). Decision aids for multi-decision disease management typically are based on simple or complex algorithms of weather data which may be accumulated over several days or weeks. It is difficult to quantify accuracy of multi-decision DSSs due to temporally overlapping disease events, existence of more than one solution to optimizing the outcome, opportunities to take later recourse to modify earlier decisions, and the ongoing, complex decision process in which the DSS is only one component. One approach to assessing importance of weather input errors is to conduct an error analysis in which the DSS outcome from high-quality weather data is compared with that from weather data with various levels of bias and/or variance from the original data. We illustrate this analytical approach for two types of DSS, an infection risk index for hop powdery mildew and a simulation model for grass stem rust. Further exploration of analysis methods is needed to address problems associated with assessing uncertainty in multi-decision DSSs.

Decision-Making Under Risk: Integrating Perspectives From Biology, Economics, and Psychology.

Science.gov (United States)

Mishra, Sandeep

2014-08-01

Decision-making under risk has been variably characterized and examined in many different disciplines. However, interdisciplinary integration has not been forthcoming. Classic theories of decision-making have not been amply revised in light of greater empirical data on actual patterns of decision-making behavior. Furthermore, the meta-theoretical framework of evolution by natural selection has been largely ignored in theories of decision-making under risk in the human behavioral sciences. In this review, I critically examine four of the most influential theories of decision-making from economics, psychology, and biology: expected utility theory, prospect theory, risk-sensitivity theory, and heuristic approaches. I focus especially on risk-sensitivity theory, which offers a framework for understanding decision-making under risk that explicitly involves evolutionary considerations. I also review robust empirical evidence for individual differences and environmental/situational factors that predict actual risky decision-making that any general theory must account for. Finally, I offer steps toward integrating various theoretical perspectives and empirical findings on risky decision-making. © 2014 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

Becoming a Mother: Supported Decision-Making in Context

Science.gov (United States)

Jamieson, Rhiann; Theodore, Kate; Raczka, Roman

2016-01-01

Little is known about how women with intellectual disabilities make decisions in relation to pregnancy. Social support is important for mothers with intellectual disabilities in many areas. This study explored how the support network influenced the decision-making of women with intellectual disabilities in relation to pregnancy. The study extended…

Qualitative study to explore Prospect Theory and message framing and diet and cancer prevention-related issues among African American adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Satia, Jessie A; Barlow, Jameta; Armstrong-Brown, Janelle; Watters, Joanne L

2010-01-01

There is a dearth of knowledge regarding factors that may motivate African American adolescents to consume healthier diets. To develop and test cancer prevention messages based on Prospect Theory on motivation to improve dietary intake in African American adolescents and to explore other salient factors that may inform dietary intervention design and implementation in this population. Semistructured in-person qualitative interviews were conducted with 13 African American male and female adolescents, aged 12 to 16 years, in North Carolina. Prospect Theory and message framing were used to guide the design of the 4 sets of diet-related messages related to cancer prevention: short-term, gain-framed; long-term, gain-framed; short-term, loss-framed; and long-term, loss-framed messages. Data were also collected on demographic, behavioral, and psychological factors; usual health behaviors; and preferences for intervention delivery. Most respondents found the gain-framed, short-term messages most salient for both fruits/vegetables (8 [61.5%]) and fat consumption (7 [53.8%]). For fat consumption only, 2 (15.4%) found the loss-framed, short-term messages pertinent; none found the loss-framed, long-term messages relevant for either dietary variable. All indicated interest in participating in a dietary intervention/education program; most preferred the Internet as a channel for intervention delivery. Participants expressed diverse views regarding knowledge, attitudes, and beliefs regarding healthy eating. The gain-framed, short-term messages were most salient for motivating the majority of respondents to consume a healthy diet and most expressed a strong interest in participating in programs about diet and nutrition, with the Internet as the preferred communication channel. Researchers conducting dietary interventions and education initiatives and medical professionals who counsel African American adolescents should consider using Prospect Theory as a theoretical framework

Behavioral economic insights into physician tobacco treatment decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Leone, Frank T; Evers-Casey, Sarah; Graden, Sarah; Schnoll, Robert

2015-03-01

Physicians self-report high adherence rates for Ask and Advise behaviors of tobacco dependence treatment but are much less likely to engage in "next steps" consistent with sophisticated management of chronic illness. A variety of potential explanations have been offered, yet each lacks face validity in light of experience with other challenging medical conditions. Conduct a preliminary exploration of the behavioral economics of tobacco treatment decision-making in the face of uncertain outcomes, seeking evidence that behaviors may be explained within the framework of Prospect Theory. Four physician cohorts were polled regarding their impressions of the utility of tobacco use treatment and their estimations of "success" probabilities. Contingent valuation was estimated by asking respondents to make monetary tradeoffs relative to three common chronic conditions. Responses from all four cohorts showed a similar pattern of high utility of tobacco use treatment but low success probability when compared with the other chronic medical conditions. Following instructional methods aimed at controverting cognitive biases related to tobacco, this pattern was reversed, with success probabilities attaining higher valuation than for diabetes. Important presuppositions regarding the potential "success" of tobacco-related patient interactions are likely limiting physician engagement by favoring the most secure visit outcome despite the limited potential for health gains. Under these conditions, low engagement rates would be consistent with Prospect Theory predictions. Interventions aimed at counteracting the cognitive biases limiting estimations of success probabilities seem to effectively reverse this pattern and provide clues to improving the adoption of target clinical behaviors.

Behavioral Economic Insights into Physician Tobacco Treatment Decision-Making

Science.gov (United States)

Evers-Casey, Sarah; Graden, Sarah; Schnoll, Robert

2015-01-01

Rationale: Physicians self-report high adherence rates for Ask and Advise behaviors of tobacco dependence treatment but are much less likely to engage in “next steps” consistent with sophisticated management of chronic illness. A variety of potential explanations have been offered, yet each lacks face validity in light of experience with other challenging medical conditions. Objective: Conduct a preliminary exploration of the behavioral economics of tobacco treatment decision-making in the face of uncertain outcomes, seeking evidence that behaviors may be explained within the framework of Prospect Theory. Methods: Four physician cohorts were polled regarding their impressions of the utility of tobacco use treatment and their estimations of “success” probabilities. Contingent valuation was estimated by asking respondents to make monetary tradeoffs relative to three common chronic conditions. Measurements and Main Results: Responses from all four cohorts showed a similar pattern of high utility of tobacco use treatment but low success probability when compared with the other chronic medical conditions. Following instructional methods aimed at controverting cognitive biases related to tobacco, this pattern was reversed, with success probabilities attaining higher valuation than for diabetes. Conclusions: Important presuppositions regarding the potential “success” of tobacco-related patient interactions are likely limiting physician engagement by favoring the most secure visit outcome despite the limited potential for health gains. Under these conditions, low engagement rates would be consistent with Prospect Theory predictions. Interventions aimed at counteracting the cognitive biases limiting estimations of success probabilities seem to effectively reverse this pattern and provide clues to improving the adoption of target clinical behaviors. PMID:25664676

Modeling the Impact of Control on the Attractiveness of Risk in a Prospect Theory Framework

Science.gov (United States)

Young, Diana L.; Goodie, Adam S.; Hall, Daniel B.

2010-01-01

Many decisions involve a degree of personal control over event outcomes, which is exerted through one’s knowledge or skill. In three experiments we investigated differences in decision making between prospects based on a) the outcome of random events and b) the outcome of events characterized by control. In Experiment 1, participants estimated certainty equivalents (CEs) for bets based on either random events or the correctness of their answers to U.S. state population questions across the probability spectrum. In Experiment 2, participants estimated CEs for bets based on random events, answers to U.S. state population questions, or answers to questions about 2007 NCAA football game results. Experiment 3 extended the same procedure as Experiment 1 using a within-subjects design. We modeled data from all experiments in a prospect theory framework to establish psychological mechanisms underlying decision behavior. Participants weighted the probabilities associated with bets characterized by control so as to reflect greater risk attractiveness relative to bets based on random events, as evidenced by more elevated weighting functions under conditions of control. This research elucidates possible cognitive mechanisms behind increased risk taking for decisions characterized by control, and implications for various literatures are discussed. PMID:21278906

Modeling the Impact of Control on the Attractiveness of Risk in a Prospect Theory Framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Young, Diana L; Goodie, Adam S; Hall, Daniel B

2011-01-01

Many decisions involve a degree of personal control over event outcomes, which is exerted through one's knowledge or skill. In three experiments we investigated differences in decision making between prospects based on a) the outcome of random events and b) the outcome of events characterized by control. In Experiment 1, participants estimated certainty equivalents (CEs) for bets based on either random events or the correctness of their answers to U.S. state population questions across the probability spectrum. In Experiment 2, participants estimated CEs for bets based on random events, answers to U.S. state population questions, or answers to questions about 2007 NCAA football game results. Experiment 3 extended the same procedure as Experiment 1 using a within-subjects design. We modeled data from all experiments in a prospect theory framework to establish psychological mechanisms underlying decision behavior. Participants weighted the probabilities associated with bets characterized by control so as to reflect greater risk attractiveness relative to bets based on random events, as evidenced by more elevated weighting functions under conditions of control. This research elucidates possible cognitive mechanisms behind increased risk taking for decisions characterized by control, and implications for various literatures are discussed.

If times change, should we throw away the hearthstone?Exploring (Dis continuities in autonomy and decision-making in the lives of Ghanaian women.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Akosua K Darkwah

2014-11-01

Full Text Available This paper attempts to investigate continuities and discontinuities between traditional and modern representations of womanhood and female gender roles focusing primarily on family and work settings. Using approaches informed by Sociology, Cultural Psychology, and African Studies, the paper explores traditional views of womanhood encapsulated in (and also transmitted intergenerationally through proverbs. This customary perspective is contrasted with the results of the Everyday Lives Survey from the Pathways of Women's Empowerment Ghana project. The survey investigated the nature of everyday life– education, work, decision making, access to institutions, and autonomy in relationships - in six hundred (600 adult women in both rural and urban communities in three regions of Ghana. We argue that although the times are changing, Ghanaian women who live in a culture that values an interdependent way of being have not changed statistically significantly so far as issues of autonomy and decision-making are concerned.

Colorectal cancer patients' attitudes towards involvement in decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Beaver, Kinta; Campbell, Malcolm; Craven, Olive; Jones, David; Luker, Karen A; Susnerwala, Shabbir S

2009-03-01

To design and administer an attitude rating scale, exploring colorectal cancer patients' views of involvement in decision making. To examine the impact of socio-demographic and/or treatment-related factors on decision making. To conduct principal components analysis to determine if the scale could be simplified into a number of factors for future clinical utility. An attitude rating scale was constructed based on previous qualitative work and administered to colorectal cancer patients using a cross-sectional survey approach. 375 questionnaires were returned (81.7% response). For patients it was important to be informed and involved in the decision-making process. Information was not always used to make decisions as patients placed their trust in medical expertise. Women had more positive opinions on decision making and were more likely to want to make decisions. Written information was understood to a greater degree than verbal information. The scale could be simplified to a number of factors, indicating clinical utility. Few studies have explored the attitudes of colorectal cancer patients towards involvement in decision making. This study presents new insights into how patients view the concept of participation; important when considering current policy imperatives in the UK of involving service users in all aspects of care and treatment.

Making better decisions in uncertain times (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

St John, C.

2013-12-01

Scientific information about climate change and other human impacts on the environment are increasingly available and sought after (often in the form of probabilistic forecasts or technical information related to engineering solutions). However, it is increasingly apparent that there are barriers to the use of this information by decision makers - either from its lack of application altogether, its usability for people without scientific backgrounds, or its ability to inform sound decisions and widespread behavior change. While the argument has been made that an information deficit is to blame, we argue that there is also a motivation deficit contributing to a lack of understanding of information about climate change impacts and solutions. Utilizing insight from over thirty years of research in social and cognitive psychology, in addition to other social sciences, the Center for Research on Environmental Decisions (CRED) seeks to understand how people make environmental decisions under conditions of uncertainty, and how these decisions can be improved. This presentation will focus specifically on recent research that has come forth since the 2009 publication of CRED's popular guide 'The Psychology of Climate Change Communication: A Guide for Scientists, Journalists, Educators, Political Aides, and the Interested Public.' Utilizing case studies from real world examples, this talk will explore how decision making can be improved through a better understanding of how people perceive and process uncertainty and risk. It will explore techniques such as choice architecture and 'nudging' behavior change, how social goals and group participation affect decision making, and how framing of environmental information influences mitigative behavior.

Exploring the consumer decision journey and online shoping experience through an emotional prespective

OpenAIRE

Passanisi, Joseph

2016-01-01

Traditional consumer decision-making models have long used quantitative research to address a link between emotional and rational behavior. However, little qualitative research has been conducted in the area of online shopping as an end-to-end experience. This study aims to provide a detailed phenomenological account of consumers’ online shopping experience and extend Mckinsey & Companys’s consumer decision journey model from an emotional perspective. Six semi-structured interviews and a focu...

Decision theory, reinforcement learning, and the brain.

Science.gov (United States)

Dayan, Peter; Daw, Nathaniel D

2008-12-01

Decision making is a core competence for animals and humans acting and surviving in environments they only partially comprehend, gaining rewards and punishments for their troubles. Decision-theoretic concepts permeate experiments and computational models in ethology, psychology, and neuroscience. Here, we review a well-known, coherent Bayesian approach to decision making, showing how it unifies issues in Markovian decision problems, signal detection psychophysics, sequential sampling, and optimal exploration and discuss paradigmatic psychological and neural examples of each problem. We discuss computational issues concerning what subjects know about their task and how ambitious they are in seeking optimal solutions; we address algorithmic topics concerning model-based and model-free methods for making choices; and we highlight key aspects of the neural implementation of decision making.

Clinical decision making in veterinary practice

OpenAIRE

Everitt, Sally

2011-01-01

Aim The aim of this study is to develop an understanding of the factors which influence veterinary surgeons’ clinical decision making during routine consultations. Methods The research takes a qualitative approach using video-cued interviews, in which one of the veterinary surgeon’s own consultations is used as the basis of a semi-structured interview exploring decision making in real cases. The research focuses primarily on small animal consultations in first opinion practice, how...

Discussion on the application potential of thermal infrared remote sensing technology in uranium deposits exploration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Junhu; Zhang Jielin; Liu Dechang

2011-01-01

With the continual development of new thermal infrared sensors and thermal radiation theory, the technology of thermal infrared remote sensing has shown great potential for applications in resources exploration, especially in the field of uranium exploration. The paper makes a systemic summary of the theoretical basis and research status of the thermal infrared remote sensing applications in resources exploration from the surface temperature, thermal inertia and thermal infrared spectrum. What's more, the research objective and the research content of thermal infrared remote sensing in the uranium deposits exploration applications are discussed in detail. Besides, based on the thermal infrared ASTER data, the paper applies this technology to the granite-type uranium deposits in South China and achieves good result. Above all, the practice proves that the thermal infrared remote sensing technology has a good application prospects and particular value in the field of uranium prospecting and will play an important role in the prospecting target of the uranium deposits. (authors)

Resisting Negative Images and Stereotypes: One Latina Prospective Teacher’s Story