Mapping project on land use changes in the carboniferous region of Santa Catarina

Science.gov (United States)

Valeriano, D. D.; Pereira, M. D. B.

1983-01-01

The utilization of remote sensing data for monitoring land use changes by means of digital image analysis is described. The following data were utilized: LANDSAT data from September 4, 1975, April 24, 1978, and September 8, 1981; LANDSAT paper photography data; area IV color photographs; IBGE topography maps, and auxiliary data about the Brazilian state of Santa Catarina. Three kinds of analyses of digital images were carried out. The project identified and mapped major classes of land use areas including urban areas, coal deposits, agricultural areas, forests, lakes, and flood plains. Five areas directly affected by coal exploration southeast of Santa Catarina are identified and described. In addition, the classification system used for organizing data about land cover in a hierarchical arrangement is presented. The project made use of two remote sensing data sources: data of MSS spectral (Mulitspectral Scanner System)/LANDSAT on a scale of 1:100,000 with approximately 80 m resolution, and infrared color aerial photographs on a scale of 1:45,000 with approximately 5 m resolution. Therefore, the classification system included three levels, two selected to be compatible with aerial photography data and the third to conform to the resolution of MSS/LANDSAT.

The characteristics and interpretability of land surface change and implications for project design

Science.gov (United States)

Sohl, Terry L.; Gallant, Alisa L.; Loveland, Thomas R.

2004-01-01

The need for comprehensive, accurate information on land-cover change has never been greater. While remotely sensed imagery affords the opportunity to provide information on land-cover change over large geographic expanses at a relatively low cost, the characteristics of land-surface change bring into question the suitability of many commonly used methodologies. Algorithm-based methodologies to detect change generally cannot provide the same level of accuracy as the analyses done by human interpreters. Results from the Land Cover Trends project, a cooperative venture that includes the U.S. Geological Survey, Environmental Protection Agency, and National Aeronautics and Space Administration, have shown that land-cover conversion is a relatively rare event, occurs locally in small patches, varies geographically and temporally, and is spectrally ambiguous. Based on these characteristics of change and the type of information required, manual interpretation was selected as the primary means of detecting change in the Land Cover Trends project. Mixtures of algorithm-based detection and manual interpretation may often prove to be the most feasible and appropriate design for change-detection applications. Serious examination of the expected characteristics and measurability of change must be considered during the design and implementation phase of any change analysis project.

Biodiversity scenarios neglect future land-use changes.

Science.gov (United States)

Titeux, Nicolas; Henle, Klaus; Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste; Regos, Adrián; Geijzendorffer, Ilse R; Cramer, Wolfgang; Verburg, Peter H; Brotons, Lluís

2016-07-01

Efficient management of biodiversity requires a forward-looking approach based on scenarios that explore biodiversity changes under future environmental conditions. A number of ecological models have been proposed over the last decades to develop these biodiversity scenarios. Novel modelling approaches with strong theoretical foundation now offer the possibility to integrate key ecological and evolutionary processes that shape species distribution and community structure. Although biodiversity is affected by multiple threats, most studies addressing the effects of future environmental changes on biodiversity focus on a single threat only. We examined the studies published during the last 25 years that developed scenarios to predict future biodiversity changes based on climate, land-use and land-cover change projections. We found that biodiversity scenarios mostly focus on the future impacts of climate change and largely neglect changes in land use and land cover. The emphasis on climate change impacts has increased over time and has now reached a maximum. Yet, the direct destruction and degradation of habitats through land-use and land-cover changes are among the most significant and immediate threats to biodiversity. We argue that the current state of integration between ecological and land system sciences is leading to biased estimation of actual risks and therefore constrains the implementation of forward-looking policy responses to biodiversity decline. We suggest research directions at the crossroads between ecological and environmental sciences to face the challenge of developing interoperable and plausible projections of future environmental changes and to anticipate the full range of their potential impacts on biodiversity. An intergovernmental platform is needed to stimulate such collaborative research efforts and to emphasize the societal and political relevance of taking up this challenge. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Land Competition and Land-Use Change:

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vongvisouk, Thoumthone

Land competition and land-use changes are taking place in many developing countries as the demand for land increases. These changes are leading to changes in the livelihood conditions of rural people. The Government of Laos (GoL), on the one hand, aims to increase forest protection. On the other...... hand, the government is also working to increase national economic growth by promoting private-sector investment in both agriculture and forest resources – two sectors that compete for the same areas intended for protection. This thesis explores how these contradictory drivers of land-use changes...... software. Quantitative data was compiled in a Microsoft Access database and analyzed in Excel. Land-use and livelihood changes are taking place rapidly in the study sites. Overall, land-use change underwent transformation away from subsistence shifting cultivation to cash crops, intensive agriculture...

Large rainfall changes consistently projected over substantial areas of tropical land

Science.gov (United States)

Chadwick, Robin; Good, Peter; Martin, Gill; Rowell, David P.

2016-02-01

Many tropical countries are exceptionally vulnerable to changes in rainfall patterns, with floods or droughts often severely affecting human life and health, food and water supplies, ecosystems and infrastructure. There is widespread disagreement among climate model projections of how and where rainfall will change over tropical land at the regional scales relevant to impacts, with different models predicting the position of current tropical wet and dry regions to shift in different ways. Here we show that despite uncertainty in the location of future rainfall shifts, climate models consistently project that large rainfall changes will occur for a considerable proportion of tropical land over the twenty-first century. The area of semi-arid land affected by large changes under a higher emissions scenario is likely to be greater than during even the most extreme regional wet or dry periods of the twentieth century, such as the Sahel drought of the late 1960s to 1990s. Substantial changes are projected to occur by mid-century--earlier than previously expected--and to intensify in line with global temperature rise. Therefore, current climate projections contain quantitative, decision-relevant information on future regional rainfall changes, particularly with regard to climate change mitigation policy.

Land-use change may exacerbate climate change impacts on water resources in the Ganges basin

Science.gov (United States)

Tsarouchi, Gina; Buytaert, Wouter

2018-02-01

Quantifying how land-use change and climate change affect water resources is a challenge in hydrological science. This work aims to quantify how future projections of land-use and climate change might affect the hydrological response of the Upper Ganges river basin in northern India, which experiences monsoon flooding almost every year. Three different sets of modelling experiments were run using the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model (LSM) and covering the period 2000-2035: in the first set, only climate change is taken into account, and JULES was driven by the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) outputs of 21 models, under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), whilst land use was held fixed at the year 2010. In the second set, only land-use change is taken into account, and JULES was driven by a time series of 15 future land-use pathways, based on Landsat satellite imagery and the Markov chain simulation, whilst the meteorological boundary conditions were held fixed at years 2000-2005. In the third set, both climate change and land-use change were taken into consideration, as the CMIP5 model outputs were used in conjunction with the 15 future land-use pathways to force JULES. Variations in hydrological variables (stream flow, evapotranspiration and soil moisture) are calculated during the simulation period. Significant changes in the near-future (years 2030-2035) hydrologic fluxes arise under future land-cover and climate change scenarios pointing towards a severe increase in high extremes of flow: the multi-model mean of the 95th percentile of streamflow (Q5) is projected to increase by 63 % under the combined land-use and climate change high emissions scenario (RCP8.5). The changes in all examined hydrological components are greater in the combined land-use and climate change experiment. Results are further presented in a water resources context, aiming to address potential implications of

Projecting trends in plant invasions in Europe under different scenarios of future land-use change

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Chytrý, M.; Wild, Jan; Pyšek, Petr; Jarošík, Vojtěch; Dendoncker, N.; Reginster, I.; Pino, J.; Maskell, L. C.; Vila, M.; Pergl, Jan; Kühn, I.; Spangenberg, J.H.; Settele, J.

2012-01-01

Roč. 21, č. 1 (2012), s. 75-87 ISSN 1466-822X R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC06073 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60050516 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : plant invasions * land-use change * prediction Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 7.223, year: 2012

Simulating Land-Use Change using an Agent-Based Land Transaction Model

Science.gov (United States)

Bakker, M. M.; van Dijk, J.; Alam, S. J.

2013-12-01

In the densely populated cultural landscapes of Europe, the vast majority of all land is owned by private parties, be it farmers (the majority), nature organizations, property developers, or citizens. Therewith, the vast majority of all land-use change arises from land transactions between different owner types: successful farms expand at the expense of less successful farms, and meanwhile property developers, individual citizens, and nature organizations also actively purchase land. These land transactions are driven by specific properties of the land, by governmental policies, and by the (economic) motives of both buyers and sellers. Climate/global change can affect these drivers at various scales: at the local scale changes in hydrology can make certain land less or more desirable; at the global scale the agricultural markets will affect motives of farmers to buy or sell land; while at intermediate (e.g. provincial) scales property developers and nature conservationists may be encouraged or discouraged to purchase land. The cumulative result of all these transactions becomes manifest in changing land-use patterns, and consequent environmental responses. Within the project Climate Adaptation for Rural Areas an agent-based land-use model was developed that explores the future response of individual land users to climate change, within the context of wider global change (i.e. policy and market change). It simulates the exchange of land among farmers and between farmers and nature organizations and property developers, for a specific case study area in the east of the Netherlands. Results show that local impacts of climate change can result in a relative stagnation in the land market in waterlogged areas. Furthermore, the increase in dairying at the expense of arable cultivation - as has been observed in the area in the past - is slowing down as arable produce shows a favourable trend in the agricultural world market. Furthermore, budgets for nature managers are

Performance comparison of land change modeling techniques for land use projection of arid watersheds

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S.M. Tajbakhsh

2018-07-01

Full Text Available The change of land use/land cover has been known as an imperative force in environmental alteration, especially in arid and semi-arid areas. This research was mainly aimed to assess the validity of two major types of land change modeling techniques via a three dimensional approach in Birjand urban watershed located in an arid climatic region of Iran. Thus, a Markovian approach based on two suitability and transition potential mappers, i.e. fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and artificial neural network-multi layer perceptron was used to simulate land use map. Validation metrics, quantity disagreement, allocation disagreement and figure of merit in a three-dimensional space were used to perform model validation. Utilizing the fuzzy-analytic hierarchy processsimulation of total landscape in the target point 2015, quantity error, the figure of merit and allocation error were 2%, 18.5% and 8%, respectively. However, Artificial neural network-multi layer perceptron simulation led to a marginal improvement in figure of merit, i.e. 3.25%.

Disentangling the effects of land-use change, climate and CO2 on projected future European habitat types

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lehsten, V; Sykes, M.T.; Scott, A.V.; Tzanopoulis, A.; Kallimanis, A.; Verburg, P.H.; Schulp, C.J.E.; Potts, S.G.; Vogiatzakis, I.

2015-01-01

Aim: To project the potential European distribution of seven broad habitat categories (needle-leaved, broad-leaved, mixed and mediterranean forest, urban, grassland and cropland) in order to assess effects of land use, climate change and increase in CO2 on predicted habitat changes up to

Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

2016-02-01

This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

Analysis of land consolidation projects and their impact on land use change, landscape structure, and agricultural land resource protection: case studies of Pilsen-South and Pilsen-North (Czech Republic)

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Moravcová, J.; Koupilová, M.; Pavlíček, T.; Zemek, František; Kvítek, T.; Pečenka, J.

2017-01-01

Roč. 13, č. 1 (2017), s. 1-13 ISSN 1860-1871 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : land consolidation * land use change * land scape structure * soil protection * grassing Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Environmental sciences (social aspects to be 5.7) Impact factor: 0.692, year: 2016

Changes in Carbon Emissions in Colombian Savannas Derived From Recent Land use and Land Cover Change

Science.gov (United States)

Etter, A.; Sarmiento, A.

2007-12-01

,500 Ha among the different savanna ecosystem types. Highest frequencies and largest burned areas occur in the less accessible well-drained savannas of the southern part of the region. The analysis also reveals a close relationship between land tenure and fire regimes, with highest frequencies in Indigenous Reserves, followed by private land ranches and National Parks, indicating that most fires are human induced. By 2000 more than 500k hectares of natural savannas were transformed to sown pastures (Brachiaria spp.), and some 100k hectares were planted with oil palm and irrigated rice. Such changes have taken place in more accessible areas and slightly better soils. In areas subject to land use change and intensification a significant reduction in fire frequency can be observed. Because such land use changes have been occurring in savanna types with better soils and higher aerial biomass values, the average effect on reduction of C-emissions is some 30 to 50% larger than the effect on fire area reduction. Our results indicate a reduction of fire frequencies greater than 80% in areas where savannas were replaced by introduced Brachiaria pastures. However the reduction in C emissions from fire reduction in these pastures is exceeded by the parallel emissions from the increase in the cattle stocking rates with a net effect of an additional emission of 0.5 Gt.CO2 equivalents. We make preliminary projections of future emission trends based on the land use change model, and we discuss the likely effects of future sources and sinks of C expected from the increase of irrigated rice crops and from projected oil palm and timber plantations.

The relative importance among anthropogenic forcings of land use/land cover change in affecting temperature extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Liang; Dirmeyer, Paul A.

2018-05-01

Land use/land cover change (LULCC) exerts significant influence on regional climate extremes, but its relative importance compared with other anthropogenic climate forcings has not been thoroughly investigated. This study compares land use forcing with other forcing agents in explaining the simulated historical temperature extreme changes since preindustrial times in the CESM-Last Millennium Ensemble (LME) project. CESM-LME suggests that the land use forcing has caused an overall cooling in both warm and cold extremes, and has significantly decreased diurnal temperature range (DTR). Due to the competing effects of the GHG and aerosol forcings, the spatial pattern of changes in 1850-2005 climatology of temperature extremes in CESM-LME can be largely explained by the land use forcing, especially for hot extremes and DTR. The dominance of land use forcing is particularly evident over Europe, eastern China, and the central and eastern US. Temporally, the land-use cooling is relatively stable throughout the historical period, while the warming of temperature extremes is mainly influenced by the enhanced GHG forcing, which has gradually dampened the local dominance of the land use effects. Results from the suite of CMIP5 experiments partially agree with the local dominance of the land use forcing in CESM-LME, but inter-model discrepancies exist in the distribution and sign of the LULCC-induced temperature changes. Our results underline the overall importance of LULCC in historical temperature extreme changes, implying land use forcing should be highlighted in future climate projections.

Evaluating Impacts of climate and land use changes on streamflow using SWAT and land use models based CESM1-CAM5 Climate scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Tzu Ping; Lin, Yu Pin; Lien, Wan Yu

2015-04-01

Climate change projects have various levels of impacts on hydrological cycles around the world. The impact of climate change and uncertainty of climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) which has been just be released in Taiwan, 2014. Since the streamflow run into ocean directly due to the steep terrain and the rainfall difference between wet and dry seasons is apparent; as a result, the allocation water resource reasonable is very challenge in Taiwan, particularly under climate change. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impacts of climate and land use changes on a small watershed in Taiwan. The AR5 General Circulation Models(GCM) output data was adopted in this study and was downscaled from the monthly to the daily weather data as the input data of hydrological model such as Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model in this study. The spatially explicit land uses change model, the Conservation of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-s), was applied to simulate land use scenarios in 2020-2039. Combined climate and land use change scenarios were adopted as input data of the hydrological model, the SWAT model, to estimate the future streamflows. With the increasing precipitation, increasing urban area and decreasing agricultural and grass land, the annual streamflow in the most of twenty-three subbasins were also increased. Besides, due to the increasing rainfall in wet season and decreasing rainfall in dry season, the difference of streamflow between wet season and dry season are also increased. This result indicates a more stringent challenge on the water resource management in future. Therefore, impacts on water resource caused by climate change and land use change should be considered in water resource planning for the Datuan river watershed. Keywords: SWAT, GCM, CLUE-s, streamflow, climate change, land use change

Land cover change or land use intensification: simulating land system change with a global-scale land change model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Asselen, S.; Verburg, P.H.

2013-01-01

Land-use change is both a cause and consequence of many biophysical and socioeconomic changes. The CLUMondo model provides an innovative approach for global land-use change modeling to support integrated assessments. Demands for goods and services are, in the model, supplied by a variety of land

Evaluation of historical land cover, land use, and land-use change emissions in the GCAM integrated assessment model

Science.gov (United States)

Calvin, K. V.; Wise, M.; Kyle, P.; Janetos, A. C.; Zhou, Y.

2012-12-01

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are often used as science-based decision-support tools for evaluating the consequences of climate and energy policies, and their use in this framework is likely to increase in the future. However, quantitative evaluation of these models has been somewhat limited for a variety of reasons, including data availability, data quality, and the inherent challenges in projections of societal values and decision-making. In this analysis, we identify and confront methodological challenges involved in evaluating the agriculture and land use component of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). GCAM is a global integrated assessment model, linking submodules of the regionally disaggregated global economy, energy system, agriculture and land-use, terrestrial carbon cycle, oceans and climate. GCAM simulates supply, demand, and prices for energy and agricultural goods from 2005 to 2100 in 5-year increments. In each time period, the model computes the allocation of land across a variety of land cover types in 151 different regions, assuming that farmers maximize profits and that food demand is relatively inelastic. GCAM then calculates both emissions from land-use practices, and long-term changes in carbon stocks in different land uses, thus providing simulation information that can be compared to observed historical data. In this work, we compare GCAM results, both in recent historic and future time periods, to historical data sets. We focus on land use, land cover, land-use change emissions, and albedo.

NASA Land Cover and Land Use Change (LCLUC): an interdisciplinary research program.

Science.gov (United States)

Justice, Chris; Gutman, Garik; Vadrevu, Krishna Prasad

2015-01-15

Understanding Land Cover/Land Use Change (LCLUC) in diverse regions of the world and at varied spatial scales is one of the important challenges in global change research. In this article, we provide a brief overview of the NASA LCLUC program, its focus areas, and the importance of satellite remote sensing observations in LCLUC research including future directions. The LCLUC Program was designed to be a cross-cutting theme within NASA's Earth Science program. The program aims to develop and use remote sensing technologies to improve understanding of human interactions with the environment. Since 1997, the NASA LCLUC program has supported nearly 280 research projects on diverse topics such as forest loss and carbon, urban expansion, land abandonment, wetland loss, agricultural land use change and land use change in mountain systems. The NASA LCLUC program emphasizes studies where land-use changes are rapid or where there are significant regional or global LCLUC implications. Over a period of years, the LCLUC program has contributed to large regional science programs such as Land Biosphere-Atmosphere (LBA), the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), and the Monsoon Area Integrated Regional Study (MAIRS). The primary emphasis of the program will remain on using remote sensing datasets for LCLUC research. The program will continue to emphasize integration of physical and social sciences to address regional to global scale issues of LCLUC for the benefit of society. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Climate change, land use and land surveyors

OpenAIRE

van der Molen, P.; Mitchell, D.

2016-01-01

Research reveals that the land sector is a major emitter of greenhouse gases. But the land sector has also potential to reduce emissions. Different from other emission sectors like energy and transport, the land sector (in particular the rural area including forests) has the potential to also remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere through sequestration and storage. This requires land use, land use change and forestry to be managed with respect to climate change goals. Carbon storage has ...

Land use allocation model considering climate change impact

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, D. K.; Yoon, E. J.; Song, Y. I.

2017-12-01

In Korea, climate change adaptation plans are being developed for each administrative district based on impact assessments constructed in various fields. This climate change impact assessments are superimposed on the actual space, which causes problems in land use allocation because the spatial distribution of individual impacts may be different each other. This implies that trade-offs between climate change impacts can occur depending on the composition of land use. Moreover, the actual space is complexly intertwined with various factors such as required area, legal regulations, and socioeconomic values, so land use allocation in consideration of climate change can be very difficult problem to solve (Liu et al. 2012; Porta et al. 2013).Optimization techniques can generate a sufficiently good alternatives for land use allocation at the strategic level if only the fitness function of relationship between impact and land use composition are derived. It has also been noted that land use optimization model is more effective than the scenario-based prediction model in achieving the objectives for problem solving (Zhang et al. 2014). Therefore in this study, we developed a quantitative tool, MOGA (Multi Objective Genetic Algorithm), which can generate a comprehensive land use allocations considering various climate change impacts, and apply it to the Gangwon-do in Korea. Genetic Algorithms (GAs) are the most popular optimization technique to address multi-objective in land use allocation. Also, it allows for immediate feedback to stake holders because it can run a number of experiments with different parameter values. And it is expected that land use decision makers and planners can formulate a detailed spatial plan or perform additional analysis based on the result of optimization model. Acknowledgments: This work was supported by the Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE) as "Climate Change Correspondence Program (Project number: 2014001310006)"

Land use and climate change

OpenAIRE

Koomen, E.; Moel, de, H.; Steingröver, E.G.; Rooij, van, S.A.M.; Eupen, van, M.

2012-01-01

Land use is majorly involved with climate change concerns and this chapter discusses and reviews the interrelationships between the vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation aspects of land use and climate change. We review a number of key studies on climate change issues regarding land productivity, land use and land management (LPLULM), identifying key findings, pointing out research needs, and raising economic/policy questions to ponder. Overall, this chapter goes beyond previous reviews ...

Changing pattern of landslide risk in Europe - The SafeLand project

Science.gov (United States)

Nadim, F.; Kalsnes, B.

2012-04-01

The need to protect people and property with a changing pattern of landslide hazard and risk caused by climate change and changes in demography, and the reality for societies in Europe to live with the risk associated with natural hazards, were the motives for the project SafeLand: "Living with landslide risk in Europe: Assessment, effects of global change, and risk management strategies." SafeLand is a large, integrating research project under the European Commission's 7th Framework Programme (FP7). The project started on 1 May 2009 and will end on 30 April 2012. It involves 27 partners from 12 European countries, and has international collaborators and advisers from China, India, USA, Japan and Hong Kong. SafeLand also involves 25 End-Users from 11 countries. SafeLand is coordinated by the International Centre for Geohazards (ICG) at Norwegian Geotechnical Institute in Norway. Further information on the SafeLand project can be found at its web site http://safeland-fp7.eu/. Main results achieved in SafeLand include: - Various guidelines related to landslide triggering processes and run-out modelling. - Development and testing of several empirical methods for predicting the characteristics of threshold rainfall events for triggering of precipitation-induced landslides, and development of an empirical model for assessing the changes in landslide frequency (hazard) as a function of changes in the demography and population density. - Guideline for landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk assessment and zoning. - New methodologies for physical and societal vulnerability assessment. - Identification of landslide hazard and risk hotspots for Europe. The results show clearly where areas with the largest landslide risk are located in Europe and the objective approach allows a ranking of the countries by exposed area and population. - Different regional and local climate model simulations over selected regions of Europe at spatial resolutions of 10x10 km and 2.8x2.8 km

Detailed climate-change projections for urban land-use change and green-house gas increases for Belgium with COSMO-CLM coupled to TERRA_URB

Science.gov (United States)

Wouters, Hendrik; Vanden Broucke, Sam; van Lipzig, Nicole; Demuzere, Matthias

2016-04-01

Recent research clearly show that climate modelling at high resolution - which resolve the deep convection, the detailed orography and land-use including urbanization - leads to better modelling performance with respect to temperatures, the boundary-layer, clouds and precipitation. The increasing computational power enables the climate research community to address climate-change projections with higher accuracy and much more detail. In the framework of the CORDEX.be project aiming for coherent high-resolution micro-ensemble projections for Belgium employing different GCMs and RCMs, the KU Leuven contributes by means of the downscaling of EC-EARTH global climate model projections (provided by the Royal Meteorological Institute of the Netherlands) to the Belgian domain. The downscaling is obtained with regional climate simulations at 12.5km resolution over Europe (CORDEX-EU domain) and at 2.8km resolution over Belgium (CORDEX.be domain) using COSMO-CLM coupled to urban land-surface parametrization TERRA_URB. This is done for the present-day (1975-2005) and future (2040 → 2070 and 2070 → 2100). In these high-resolution runs, both GHG changes (in accordance to RCP8.5) and urban land-use changes (in accordance to a business-as-usual urban expansion scenario) are taken into account. Based on these simulations, it is shown how climate-change statistics are modified when going from coarse resolution modelling to high-resolution modelling. The climate-change statistics of particular interest are the changes in number of extreme precipitation events and extreme heat waves in cities. Hereby, it is futher investigated for the robustness of the signal change between the course and high-resolution and whether a (statistical) translation is possible. The different simulations also allow to address the relative impact and synergy between the urban expansion and increased GHG on the climate-change statistics. Hereby, it is investigated for which climate-change statistics the

Consideration of land-use and land-cover changes in the projection of climate extremes over North America by the end of the twenty-first century

Science.gov (United States)

Alexandru, Adelina

2018-03-01

Changes in the essential climate extremes indices and surface variables for the end of the twenty-first century are assessed in this study based on two transient climate change simulations, with and without land-use and land-cover changes (LULCC), but identical atmospheric forcing. The two simulations are performed with the 5th generation of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) driven by the Canadian Earth System Model for the (2006-2100)-Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario. For the simulation with LULCC, land-cover data sets are taken from the global change assessment model (GCAM) representing the RCP4.5 scenario for the period 2006-2100. LULCC in RCP4.5 scenario suggest significant reduction in cultivated land (e.g. Canadian Prairies and Mississippi basin) due to afforestation. CRCM5 climate projections imply a general warming by the end of the twenty-first century, especially over the northern regions in winter. CRCM5 projects more warm spell-days per year over most areas of the continent, and implicitly more summer days and tropical nights at the expense of cold-spell, frost and ice days whose number is projected to decrease by up to 40% by the end of the twenty-first century with respect to the baseline period 1971-2000. Most land areas north of 45°N, in all seasons, as well as the southeastern United States in summer, exhibit increases in mean precipitation under the RCP4.5 scenario. In contrast, central parts of the continent in summer and much of Mexico in all seasons show reduced precipitation. In addition, large areas of North America exhibit changes of 10 to 40% (depending on the season and geographical location) in the number of heavy precipitation days. Results also suggest that the biogeophysical effects of LULCC on climate, assessed through differences between the two simulations, lead to warmer regional climates, especially in winter. The investigation of processes leading to this response shows high sensitivity of the

Understanding land use change impacts on microclimate using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Xia; Mitra, Chandana; Dong, Li; Yang, Qichun

2018-02-01

To explore potential climatic consequences of land cover change in the Kolkata Metropolitan Development area, we projected microclimate conditions in this area using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model driven by future land use scenarios. Specifically, we considered two land conversion scenarios including an urbanization scenario that all the wetlands and croplands would be converted to built-up areas, and an irrigation expansion scenario in which all wetlands and dry croplands would be replaced by irrigated croplands. Results indicated that land use and land cover (LULC) change would dramatically increase regional temperature in this area under the urbanization scenario, but expanded irrigation tended to have a cooling effect. In the urbanization scenario, precipitation center tended to move eastward and lead to increased rainfall in eastern parts of this region. Increased irrigation stimulated rainfall in central and eastern areas but reduced rainfall in southwestern and northwestern parts of the study area. This study also demonstrated that urbanization significantly reduced latent heat fluxes and albedo of land surface; while increased sensible heat flux changes following urbanization suggested that developed land surfaces mainly acted as heat sources. In this study, climate change projection not only predicts future spatiotemporal patterns of multiple climate factors, but also provides valuable insights into policy making related to land use management, water resource management, and agriculture management to adapt and mitigate future climate changes in this populous region.

Integrated Assessment of Climate Change, Land-Use Changes, and Regional Carbon Dynamics in United States

Science.gov (United States)

Mu, J. E.; Sleeter, B. M.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

2015-12-01

The fact that climate change is likely to accelerate throughout this century means that climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture will need to adapt increasingly to climate change. This fact also means that understanding the potential for agricultural adaptation, and how it could come about, is important for ongoing technology investments in the public and private sectors, for infrastructure investments, and for the various policies that address agriculture directly or indirectly. This paper is an interdisciplinary study by collaborating with climate scientist, agronomists, economists, and ecologists. We first use statistical models to estimate impacts of climate change on major crop yields (wheat, corn, soybeans, sorghum, and cotton) and predict changes in crop yields under future climate condition using downscaled climate projections from CMIP5. Then, we feed the predicted yield changes to a partial equilibrium economic model (FASOM-GHG) to evaluate economic and environmental outcomes including changes in land uses (i.e., cropland, pastureland, forest land, urban land and land for conservation) in United States. Finally, we use outputs from FASOM-GHG as inputs for the ST-SIM ecological model to simulate future carbon dynamics through changes in land use under future climate conditions and discuss the rate of adaptation through land-use changes. Findings in this paper have several merits compared to previous findings in the literature. First, we add economic components to the carbon calculation. It is important to include socio-economic conditions when calculating carbon emission and/or carbon sequestration because human activities are the major contribution to atmosphere GHG emissions. Second, we use the most recent downscaled climate projections from CMIP5 to capture uncertainties from climate model projections. Instead of using all GCMs, we select five GCMs to represent the ensemble. Third, we use a bottom-up approach because we start from micro-level data

A framework for considering climate change in transportation and land use scenario planning : lessons learned from an interagency pilot project on Cape Cod.

Science.gov (United States)

2011-07-01

The Interagency Transportation, Land Use, and Climate Change Pilot Project utilized a scenario planning process to develop a multi-agency transportation- and land use-focused development strategy for Cape Cod, Massachusetts, with the intention of ach...

Land-Use and Land-Cover Change around Mobile Bay, Alabama from 1974-2008

Science.gov (United States)

Ellis, Jean; Spruce, Joseph P.; Swann, Roberta; Smooth, James C.

2009-01-01

This document summarizes the major findings of a Gulf of Mexico Application Pilot project led by NASA Stennis Space Center (SSC) in conjunction with a regional collaboration network of the Gulf of Mexico Alliance (GOMA). NASA researchers processed and analyzed multi-temporal Landsat data to assess land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes in the coastal counties of Mobile and Baldwin, AL between 1974 and 2008. Our goal was to create satellite-based LULC data products using methods that could be transferable to other coastal areas of concern within the Gulf of Mexico. The Mobile Bay National Estuary Program (MBNEP) is the primary end-user, however, several other state and local groups may benefit from the project s data products that will be available through NOAA-NCDDC s Regional Ecosystem Data Management program. Mobile Bay is a critical ecologic and economic region in the Gulf of Mexico and to the entire country. Mobile Bay was designated as an estuary of national significance in 1996. This estuary receives the fourth largest freshwater inflow in the United States. It provides vital nursery habitat for commercially and recreationally important fish species. It has exceptional aquatic and terrestrial bio-diversity, however, its estuary health is influenced by changing LULC patterns, such as urbanization. Mobile and Baldwin counties have experienced a population growth of 1.1% and 20.5% from 2000-2006. Urban expansion and population growth are likely to accelerate with the construction and operation of the ThyssenKrupp steel mill in the northeast portion of Mobile County. Land-use and land-cover change can negatively impact Gulf coast water quality and ecological resources. The conversion of forest to urban cover types impacts the carbon cycle and increases the freshwater and sediment in coastal waters. Increased freshwater runoff decreases salinity and increases the turbidity of coastal waters, thus impacting the growth potential of submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV

Agrarian land use decision making in the light of global change and climate change

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Murambadoro, M

2014-09-01

Full Text Available in Limpopo Province to help land beneficiaries to achieve integrated and coordinated agrarian land use decision making. The second project is ongoing and it seeks to build local resilience to climate change by providing people at local government...

Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

Science.gov (United States)

Le Page, Yannick; Morton, Douglas; Hartin, Corinne; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Cardoso Pereira, José Miguel; Hurtt, George; Asrar, Ghassem

2017-12-01

Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change - Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 - projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4-28 times more forest in 2080-2100 than during 1990-2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9-5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.

Climate change and future land use in the United States: an economic approach

Science.gov (United States)

David Haim; Ralph J. Alig; Andrew J. Plantinga; Brent Sohngen

2011-01-01

An econometric land-use model is used to project regional and national land-use changes in the United States under two IPCC emissions scenarios. The key driver of land-use change in the model is county-level measures of net returns to five major land uses. The net returns are modified for the IPCC scenarios according to assumed trends in population and income and...

Committed climate change due to historical land use and management: the concept

Science.gov (United States)

Freibauer, Annette; Dolman, Han; Don, Axel; Poeplau, Christopher

2013-04-01

A significant fraction of the European land surface has changed its land use over the last 50 years. Management practices have changed in the same period in most land use systems. These changes have affected the carbon and greenhouse gas (GHG) balance of the European land surface. Land use intensity, defined here loosely as the degree to which humans interfere with the land, strongly affects GHG emissions. Land use and land management changes suggest that the variability of the carbon balance and of GHG emissions of cultivated land areas in Europe is much more driven by land use history and management than driven by climate. Importantly changes in land use and its management have implications for future GHG emissions, and therefore present a committed climate change, defined as inevitable future additional climate change induced by past human activity. It is one of the key goals of the large-scale integrating research project "GHG-Europe - Greenhouse gas management in European land use systems" to quantify the committed climate change due to legacy effects by land use and management. The project is funded by the European Commission in the 7th framework programme (Grant agreement no.: 244122). This poster will present the conceptual approach taken to reach this goal. (1) First of all we need to proof that at site, or regional level the management effects are larger than climate effects on carbon balance and GHG emissions. Observations from managed sites and regions will serve as empirical basis. Attribution experiments with models based on process understanding are run on managed sites and regions will serve to demonstrate that the observed patterns of the carbon balance and GHG emissions can only be reproduced when land use and management are included as drivers. (2) The legacy of land use changes will be quantified by combining spatially explicit time series of land use changes with response functions of carbon pools. This will allow to separate short-term and

Analyzing historical land use changes using a Historical Land Use Reconstruction Model: a case study in Zhenlai County, northeastern China

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Yuanyuan; Zhang, Shuwen; Liu, Yansui; Xing, Xiaoshi; de Sherbinin, Alex

2017-01-01

Historical land use information is essential to understanding the impact of anthropogenic modification of land use/cover on the temporal dynamics of environmental and ecological issues. However, due to a lack of spatial explicitness, complete thematic details and the conversion types for historical land use changes, the majority of historical land use reconstructions do not sufficiently meet the requirements for an adequate model. Considering these shortcomings, we explored the possibility of constructing a spatially-explicit modeling framework (HLURM: Historical Land Use Reconstruction Model). Then a three-map comparison method was adopted to validate the projected reconstruction map. The reconstruction suggested that the HLURM model performed well in the spatial reconstruction of various land-use categories, and had a higher figure of merit (48.19%) than models used in other case studies. The largest land use/cover type in the study area was determined to be grassland, followed by arable land and wetland. Using the three-map comparison, we noticed that the major discrepancies in land use changes among the three maps were as a result of inconsistencies in the classification of land-use categories during the study period, rather than as a result of the simulation model. PMID:28134342

Temporal change detection of land use/land cover using GIS and ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Satellite images for the years 1972, 1989, 1999 and 2016 were used for LULC ... built-up areas, pastures and bare land, agricultural land and water bodies. For the accuracy of assessment classifications, matrix error and KAPPA ... Keywords: land use/land cover change; change detection; classification; remote sensing; GIS ...

Adapting the Biome-BGC Model to New Zealand Pastoral Agriculture: Climate Change and Land-Use Change

Science.gov (United States)

Keller, E. D.; Baisden, W. T.; Timar, L.

2011-12-01

We have adapted the Biome-BGC model to make climate change and land-use scenario estimates of New Zealand's pasture production in 2020 and 2050, with comparison to a 2005 baseline. We take an integrated modelling approach with the aim of enabling the model's use for policy assessments across broadly related issues such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, land-use change, and greenhouse gas projections. The Biome-BGC model is a biogeochemical model that simulates carbon, water, and nitrogen cycles in terrestrial ecosystems. We introduce two new 'ecosystems', sheep/beef and dairy pasture, within the existing structure of the Biome-BGC model and calibrate its ecophysiological parameters against pasture clipping data from diverse sites around New Zealand to form a baseline estimate of total New Zealand pasture production. Using downscaled AR4 climate projections, we construct mid- and upper-range climate change scenarios in 2020 and 2050. We produce land-use change scenarios in the same years by combining the Biome-BGC model with the Land Use in Rural New Zealand (LURNZ) model. The LURNZ model uses econometric approaches to predict future land-use change driven by changes in net profits driven by expected pricing, including the introduction of an emission trading system. We estimate the relative change in national pasture production from our 2005 baseline levels for both sheep/beef and dairy systems under each scenario.

Land-Use Change and Bioenergy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

2011-07-01

This publication describes the Biomass Program’s efforts to examine the intersection of land-use change and bioenergy production. It describes legislation requiring land-use change assessments, key data and modeling challenges, and the research needs to better assess and understand the impact of bioenergy policy on land-use decisions.

Large-scale impact of climate change vs. land-use change on future biome shifts in Latin America.

Science.gov (United States)

Boit, Alice; Sakschewski, Boris; Boysen, Lena; Cano-Crespo, Ana; Clement, Jan; Garcia-Alaniz, Nashieli; Kok, Kasper; Kolb, Melanie; Langerwisch, Fanny; Rammig, Anja; Sachse, René; van Eupen, Michiel; von Bloh, Werner; Clara Zemp, Delphine; Thonicke, Kirsten

2016-11-01

Climate change and land-use change are two major drivers of biome shifts causing habitat and biodiversity loss. What is missing is a continental-scale future projection of the estimated relative impacts of both drivers on biome shifts over the course of this century. Here, we provide such a projection for the biodiverse region of Latin America under four socio-economic development scenarios. We find that across all scenarios 5-6% of the total area will undergo biome shifts that can be attributed to climate change until 2099. The relative impact of climate change on biome shifts may overtake land-use change even under an optimistic climate scenario, if land-use expansion is halted by the mid-century. We suggest that constraining land-use change and preserving the remaining natural vegetation early during this century creates opportunities to mitigate climate-change impacts during the second half of this century. Our results may guide the evaluation of socio-economic scenarios in terms of their potential for biome conservation under global change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Le Page

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.

Review of Land Use and Land Cover Change research progress

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Yue; Hou, Kang; Li, Xuxiang; Zhang, Yunwei; Chen, Pei

2018-02-01

Land Use and Land Cover Change (LUCC) can reflect the pattern of human land use in a region, and plays an important role in space soil and water conservation. The study on the change of land use patterns in the world is of great significance to cope with global climate change and sustainable development. This paper reviews the main research progress of LUCC at home and abroad, and suggests that land use change has been shifted from land use planning and management to land use change impact and driving factors. The development of remote sensing technology provides the basis and data for LUCC with dynamic monitoring and quantitative analysis. However, there is no uniform standard for land use classification at present, which brings a lot of inconvenience to the collection and analysis of land cover data. Globeland30 is an important milestone contribution to the study of international LUCC system. More attention should be paid to the accuracy and results contrasting test of land use classification obtained by remote sensing technology.

Spatial modeling of agricultural land use change at global scale

Science.gov (United States)

Meiyappan, P.; Dalton, M.; O'Neill, B. C.; Jain, A. K.

2014-11-01

Long-term modeling of agricultural land use is central in global scale assessments of climate change, food security, biodiversity, and climate adaptation and mitigation policies. We present a global-scale dynamic land use allocation model and show that it can reproduce the broad spatial features of the past 100 years of evolution of cropland and pastureland patterns. The modeling approach integrates economic theory, observed land use history, and data on both socioeconomic and biophysical determinants of land use change, and estimates relationships using long-term historical data, thereby making it suitable for long-term projections. The underlying economic motivation is maximization of expected profits by hypothesized landowners within each grid cell. The model predicts fractional land use for cropland and pastureland within each grid cell based on socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors that change with time. The model explicitly incorporates the following key features: (1) land use competition, (2) spatial heterogeneity in the nature of driving factors across geographic regions, (3) spatial heterogeneity in the relative importance of driving factors and previous land use patterns in determining land use allocation, and (4) spatial and temporal autocorrelation in land use patterns. We show that land use allocation approaches based solely on previous land use history (but disregarding the impact of driving factors), or those accounting for both land use history and driving factors by mechanistically fitting models for the spatial processes of land use change do not reproduce well long-term historical land use patterns. With an example application to the terrestrial carbon cycle, we show that such inaccuracies in land use allocation can translate into significant implications for global environmental assessments. The modeling approach and its evaluation provide an example that can be useful to the land use, Integrated Assessment, and the Earth system modeling

U.S. landowner behavior, land use and land cover changes, and climate change mitigation.

Science.gov (United States)

Ralph J. Alig

2003-01-01

Landowner behavior is a major determinant of land use and land cover changes. an important consideration for policy analysts concerned with global change. Study of landowner behavior aids in designing more effective incentives for inducing land use and land cover changes to help mitigate climate change by reducing net greenhouse gas emissions. Afforestation,...

Out-migration and land-use change in agricultural frontiers: insights from Altamira settlement project

Science.gov (United States)

D’Antona, Álvaro O.

2012-01-01

One of Daniel Hogan’s lasting impacts on international demography community comes through his advocacy for studying bidirectional relationships between environment and demography, particularly migration. We build on his holistic approach to mobility and examine dynamic changes in land use and migration among small farm families in Altamira, Pará, Brazil. We find that prior area in either pasture or perennials promotes out-migration of adult children, but that out-migration is not directly associated with land-use change. In contrast to early formulations of household life cycle models that argued that aging parents would decrease productive land use as children left the farm, we find no effect of out-migration of adult children on land-use change. Instead, remittances facilitate increases in area in perennials, a slower to pay off investment that requires scarce capital, but in pasture. While remittances are rare, they appear to permit sound investments in the rural milieu and thus to slow rural exodus and the potential consolidation of land into large holdings. We would do well to promote the conditions that allow them to be sent and to be used productively to keep families on the land to avoid the specter of extensive deforestation for pasture followed by land consolidation. PMID:23129878

Human-induced climate change: the impact of land-use change

Science.gov (United States)

Gries, Thomas; Redlin, Margarete; Ugarte, Juliette Espinosa

2018-02-01

For hundreds of years, human activity has modified the planet's surface through land-use practices. Policies and decisions on how land is managed and land-use changes due to replacement of forests by agricultural cropping and grazing lands affect greenhouse gas emissions. Agricultural management and agroforestry and the resulting changes to the land surface alter the global carbon cycle as well as the Earth's surface albedo, both of which in turn change the Earth's radiation balance. This makes land-use change the second anthropogenic source of climate change after fossil fuel burning. However, the scientific research community has so far not been able to identify the direction and magnitude of the global impact of land-use change. This paper examines the effects of net carbon flux from land-use change on temperature by applying Granger causality and error correction models. The results reveal a significant positive long-run equilibrium relationship between land-use change and the temperature series as well as an opposing short-term effect such that land-use change tends to lead to global warming; however, a rise in temperature causes a decline in land-use change.

A Generalized Deforestation and Land-Use Change Scenario Generator for Use in Climate Modelling Studies

Science.gov (United States)

Tompkins, Adrian Mark; Caporaso, Luca; Biondi, Riccardo; Bell, Jean Pierre

2015-01-01

A new deforestation and land-use change scenario generator model (FOREST-SAGE) is presented that is designed to interface directly with dynamic vegetation models used in latest generation earth system models. The model requires a regional-scale scenario for aggregate land-use change that may be time-dependent, provided by observational studies or by regional land-use change/economic models for future projections. These land-use categories of the observations/economic model are first translated into equivalent plant function types used by the particular vegetation model, and then FOREST-SAGE disaggregates the regional-scale scenario to the local grid-scale of the earth system model using a set of risk-rules based on factors such as proximity to transport networks, distance weighted population density, forest fragmentation and presence of protected areas and logging concessions. These rules presently focus on the conversion of forest to agriculture and pasture use, but could be generalized to other land use change conversions. After introducing the model, an evaluation of its performance is shown for the land-cover changes that have occurred in the Central African Basin from 2001–2010 using retrievals from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Vegetation Continuous Field data. The model is able to broadly reproduce the spatial patterns of forest cover change observed by MODIS, and the use of the local-scale risk factors enables FOREST-SAGE to improve land use change patterns considerably relative to benchmark scenarios used in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project integrations. The uncertainty to the various risk factors is investigated using an ensemble of investigations, and it is shown that the model is sensitive to the population density, forest fragmentation and reforestation factors specified. PMID:26394392

Changing characteristics of land use and ecological service value in the water source region of the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Jian; Zhai, Wenliang; Cao, Huiqun

2017-08-01

Research on changing characteristics of land use and ecological service value (ESV) can guide the regional land use planning and promote the rational use of environmental resources. On the basis of four phases of land-use data (2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015), this research analysed the changing characteristics of land use and ESV in the water source region of the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project (SRMRP). The results showed that forest, grassland and cultivated land were the major land-use types in the SRMRP. During 2000∼2015, forest, grassland, farmland and wetland decreased. Construction land and bare land had increased, and the annual increase rates reached 3.6% and 8%, respectively. After the implementation of the water transfer project in 2003, water area was also increasing. The total ESV in the SRMRP is about 196 billion CNY, and mainly comes from the contributions of forest, grassland and farmland. During 2000∼2015, farmland shrinks leaded to the declines in value from supply service. With increasing in water and construction land, value from entertainment and cultural service increased. During the early stage of the water transfer project, value from regulation and support services increased due to the increase in water. With the decreasing in wetland and the increasing in construction land, the negative effects on the regulation and support services were increasing, and value from regulation and support services were therefore decreasing. During the process of resource exploitation and management, more attentions should be paid to the total control of construction land and wetland protection in the SRMRP.

The changing of land use and land management in Ignalina NPP region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Milius, J.; Ribokas, G.

1998-01-01

The investigated locality (Ignalina NPP) represents territory of NPP and Visaginas town as well as agrarian territories of three former environs Dukshtas and Rimshe (Ignalina district) and Turmantas (Zarasai district). The changes of land, started with the beginning of construction works of NPP (1974) and are still taking place, are analyzed. The data on the land fund and current data of land reform agrarian services were used. The changes of the plots of farming lands in agrarian territories were preconditioned by the same factors which operated in other territories of hilly agrarian landscape. In the drained terrains the plots of farming lands increased, whereas, in other territories re naturalization processes set in resulting in the increase of the areas covered with forests and bushes which were not used for agricultural purposes. Thus, we may assert that the impact of the NPP itself on the change of the structure of farming lands in agrarian territories was minimal. It manifested not as a permanent process but as a spontaneous fact - a mechanical allotment of a plots of land for building the NPP and town itself. The comparison of the structure of farming lands at the moment of allotment with the data of 1995 revealed that during the mentioned period the farming land were completely destroyed (1003 ha of ploughed lands, 168 ha - grasslands, 180 ha - pastures). The forest area was reduced by 625 ha. The destroyed farming lands were occupied by territories under buildings (719 ha), artificial ground cover (159 ha), and high tension current lines (over 800 ha) which are absolutely unfit neither for agriculture nor forestry. Though the NPP and Visaginas town exerted no appreciable influence on the structure of farming lands in the surrounding territories they substantially changed the territory of NPP and Visaginas. The former wooded - agrarian landscape was replaced by an untypical for these places technical - urbanized landscape. This should be taken into

Potential strong contribution of future anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change to the terrestrial carbon cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Quesada, Benjamin; Arneth, Almut; Robertson, Eddy; de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie

2018-06-01

Anthropogenic land-use and land cover changes (LULCC) affect global climate and global terrestrial carbon (C) cycle. However, relatively few studies have quantified the impacts of future LULCC on terrestrial carbon cycle. Here, using Earth system model simulations performed with and without future LULCC, under the RCP8.5 scenario, we find that in response to future LULCC, the carbon cycle is substantially weakened: browning, lower ecosystem C stocks, higher C loss by disturbances and higher C turnover rates are simulated. Projected global greening and land C storage are dampened, in all models, by 22% and 24% on average and projected C loss by disturbances enhanced by ~49% when LULCC are taken into account. By contrast, global net primary productivity is found to be only slightly affected by LULCC (robust +4% relative enhancement compared to all forcings, on average). LULCC is projected to be a predominant driver of future C changes in regions like South America and the southern part of Africa. LULCC even cause some regional reversals of projected increased C sinks and greening, particularly at the edges of the Amazon and African rainforests. Finally, in most carbon cycle responses, direct removal of C dominates over the indirect CO2 fertilization due to LULCC. In consequence, projections of land C sequestration potential and Earth’s greening could be substantially overestimated just because of not fully accounting for LULCC.

Biofuels and Land Use Change: Applying Recent Evidence to Model Estimates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wallace E. Tyner

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Biofuels impact on global land use has been a controversial yet important topic. Up until recently, there has not been enough biofuels to have caused major land use change, so the evidence from actual global land use data has been scant. However, in the past decade, there have been 72 million hectares added to global crop cover. In this research we take advantage of this new data to calibrate the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP model and parameters. We make two major changes. First, we calibrate the land transformation parameters (called constant elasticity of transformation, CET to global regions so that the parameters better reflect the actual land cover change that has occurred. Second, we alter the land cover nesting structure. In the old GTAP model, cropland, pasture, and forest were all in the same nest suggesting, everything else being equal, that pasture or forest convert to cropland with equal ease and cost. However, we now take advantage of the fact that pasture converts to cropland at lower cost than forest. The paper provides the theoretical and empirical justification for these two model improvements. Then it re-evaluates the global land use impacts due to the USA ethanol program using the improved model tuned with actual observations. Finally, it shows that compared to the old model, the new model projects: (1 less expansion in global cropland due to ethanol expansion; (2 lower U.S. share in global cropland expansion; (3 and lower forest share in global cropland expansion.

Validation of land use / land cover changes for Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Levin, Gregor; Johannsen, Vivian Kvist; Caspersen, Ole Hjort

2018-01-01

This report presents applied methods and results for a validation of land use and land cover changes for 1990 and 2014-2016. Results indicate that generally, accuracies of land use and land cover. However, afforestation and particularly deforestation are significantly overestimated....

Land use change and prediction in the Baimahe Basin using GIS and CA-Markov model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Shixu; Zhang, Zulu; Wang, Xue

2014-01-01

Using ArcGIS and IDRISI, land use dynamics and Shannon entropy information were applied in this paper to analyze the quantity and structure change in the Baimahe Basin from 1996 to 2008. A CA-Markov model was applied to predict the land use patterns in 2020. Results showed that farmland, forest and construction land are the dominant land use types in the Baimahe Basin. From 1996 to 2008, areas of farmland and forest decreased and other land use types increased, with construction land increasing the most. The prediction results showed that the changes in land use patterns from 2008 to 2020 would be the same with those from 1996 to 2008. Main changes are the transiting out of farmland and forest and the transiting in of construction land. The order degree of the whole basin goes on decreasing. Measures of farmland protection and grain for green projects should be adopted to enhance the stability of land use system in the Baimahe Basin in order to promote regional sustainable development

Indirect land-use changes can overcome carbon savings from biofuels in Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Lapola, David M.; Schaldach, Ruediger; Alcamo, Joseph; Bondeau, Alberte; Koch, Jennifer; Koelking, Christina; Priess, Joerg A.

2010-01-01

The planned expansion of biofuel plantations in Brazil could potentially cause both direct and indirect land-use changes (e.g., biofuel plantations replace rangelands, which replace forests). In this study, we use a spatially explicit model to project land-use changes caused by that expansion in 2020, assuming that ethanol (biodiesel) production increases by 35 (4) x 109 liter in the 2003-2020 period. Our simulations show that direct land-use changes will have a small impact on carbon emissions because most biofuel plantations would replace rangeland areas. However, indirect land-use changes, especially those pushing the rangeland frontier into the Amazonian forests, could offset the carbon savings from biofuels. Sugarcane ethanol and soybean biodiesel each contribute to nearly half of the projected indirect deforestation of 121,970 km2 by 2020, creating a carbon debt that would take about 250 years to be repaid using these biofuels instead of fossil fuels. We also tested different crops that could serve as feedstock to fulfill Brazil’s biodiesel demand and found that oil palm would cause the least land-use changes and associated carbon debt. The modeled livestock density increases by 0.09 head per hectare. But a higher increase of 0.13 head per hectare in the average livestock density throughout the country could avoid the indirect land-use changes caused by biofuels (even with soybean as the biodiesel feedstock), while still fulfilling all food and bioenergy demands. We suggest that a closer collaboration or strengthened institutional link between the biofuel and cattle-ranching sectors in the coming years is crucial for effective carbon savings from biofuels in Brazil. PMID:20142492

Project ATLANTA (Atlanta Land use Analysis: Temperature and Air Quality): Use of Remote Sensing and Modeling to Analyze How Urban Land Use Change Affects Meteorology and Air Quality Through Time

Science.gov (United States)

Quattrochi, Dale A.; Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.

1999-01-01

This paper presents an overview of Project ATLANTA (ATlanta Land use ANalysis: Temperature and Air-quality) which is an investigation that seeks to observe, measure, model, and analyze how the rapid growth of the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area since the early 1970's has impacted the region's climate and air quality. The primary objectives for this research effort are: (1) To investigate and model the relationships between land cover change in the Atlanta metropolitan, and the development of the urban heat island phenomenon through time; (2) To investigate and model the temporal relationships between Atlanta urban growth and land cover change on air quality; and (3) To model the overall effects of urban development on surface energy budget characteristics across the Atlanta urban landscape through time. Our key goal is to derive a better scientific understanding of how land cover changes associated with urbanization in the Atlanta area, principally in transforming forest lands to urban land covers through time, has, and will, effect local and regional climate, surface energy flux, and air quality characteristics. Allied with this goal is the prospect that the results from this research can be applied by urban planners, environmental managers and other decision-makers, for determining how urbanization has impacted the climate and overall environment of the Atlanta area. Multiscaled remote sensing data, particularly high resolution thermal infrared data, are integral to this study for the analysis of thermal energy fluxes across the Atlanta urban landscape.

Using Landsat imagery to detect, monitor, and project net landscape change

Science.gov (United States)

Reker, Ryan R.; Sohl, Terry L.; Gallant, Alisa L.

2015-01-01

Detailed landscape information is a necessary component to bird habitat conservation planning. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center has been providing information on the Earth’s surface for over 40 years via the continuous series of Landsat satellites. In addition to operating, processing, and disseminating satellite images, EROS is the home to nationwide and global landscape mapping, monitoring, and projection products, including:National Land Cover Database (NLCD) – the definitive land cover dataset for the U.S., with updates occurring at five-year intervals;Global Land Cover Monitoring – producing 30m resolution global land cover;LANDFIRE – Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools–EROS is a partner in this joint program between U.S. Department of Agriculture and Department of Interior that produces consistent, comprehensive, geospatial data and databases that describe vegetation, wildland fuel, and fire regimes across the U.S.;Land Cover Trends – a landscape monitoring and assessment effort to understand the rates, trends, causes, and consequences of contemporary U.S. land use and land cover change; andLand Use and Land Cover (LULC) Modeling – a project extending contemporary databases of landscape change forward and backward in time through moderate-resolution land cover projections.

Future habitat loss and extinctions driven by land-use change in biodiversity hotspots under four scenarios of climate-change mitigation.

Science.gov (United States)

Jantz, Samuel M; Barker, Brian; Brooks, Thomas M; Chini, Louise P; Huang, Qiongyu; Moore, Rachel M; Noel, Jacob; Hurtt, George C

2015-08-01

Numerous species have been pushed into extinction as an increasing portion of Earth's land surface has been appropriated for human enterprise. In the future, global biodiversity will be affected by both climate change and land-use change, the latter of which is currently the primary driver of species extinctions. How societies address climate change will critically affect biodiversity because climate-change mitigation policies will reduce direct climate-change impacts; however, these policies will influence land-use decisions, which could have negative impacts on habitat for a substantial number of species. We assessed the potential impact future climate policy could have on the loss of habitable area in biodiversity hotspots due to associated land-use changes. We estimated past extinctions from historical land-use changes (1500-2005) based on the global gridded land-use data used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report and habitat extent and species data for each hotspot. We then estimated potential extinctions due to future land-use changes under alternative climate-change scenarios (2005-2100). Future land-use changes are projected to reduce natural vegetative cover by 26-58% in the hotspots. As a consequence, the number of additional species extinctions, relative to those already incurred between 1500 and 2005, due to land-use change by 2100 across all hotspots ranged from about 220 to 21000 (0.2% to 16%), depending on the climate-change mitigation scenario and biological factors such as the slope of the species-area relationship and the contribution of wood harvest to extinctions. These estimates of potential future extinctions were driven by land-use change only and likely would have been higher if the direct effects of climate change had been considered. Future extinctions could potentially be reduced by incorporating habitat preservation into scenario development to reduce projected future land-use changes in hotspots or by

Drivers of Land Use Change and the Role of Palm Oil Production in Indonesia and Malaysia. Overview of Past Developments and Future Projections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wicke, Birka; Sikkema, Richard; Dornburg, Veronika; Junginger, Martin; Faaij, Andre

2008-07-01

This study provides insight into land use changes (LUC) in Indonesia and Malaysia and into the specific role that palm oil production and its expansion have played in the past and may play in the future in both countries. In relation to future land use changes induced by palm oil production expansion also the GHG emissions of this LUC are analysed to indicate the sustainability (from a GHG emission perspective) of the various palm oil expansion projections

Spatiotemporal Land Use Change Analysis Using Open-source GIS and Web Based Application

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wan Yusryzal Wan Ibrahim

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Spatiotemporal changes are very important information to reveal the characteristics of the urbanization process. Sharing the information is beneficial for public awareness which then improves their participation in adaptive management for spatial planning process. Open-source software and web application are freely available tools that can be the best medium used by any individual or agencies to share this important information. The objective of the paper is to discuss on the spatiotemporal land use change in Iskandar Malaysia by using open-source GIS (Quantum GIS and publish them through web application (Mash-up. Land use in 1994 to 2011 were developed and analyzed to show the landscape change of the region. Subsequently, web application was setup to distribute the findings of the study. The result show there is significant changes of land use in the study area especially on the decline of agricultural and natural land which were converted to urban land uses. Residential and industrial areas largely replaced the agriculture and natural areas particularly along the coastal zone of the region. This information is published through interactive GIS web in order to share it with the public and stakeholders. There are some limitations of web application but still not hindering the advantages of using it. The integration of open-source GIS and web application is very helpful in sharing planning information particularly in the study area that experiences rapid land use and land cover change. Basic information from this study is vital for conducting further study such as projecting future land use change and other related studies in the area.

Future Scenarios of Land Change Based on Empirical Data and Demographic Trends

Science.gov (United States)

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara S.; Sharygin, Ethan; Sherba, Jason T.

2017-11-01

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001-2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a "business-as-usual" (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km2 yr-1; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40-90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

Future scenarios of land change based on empirical data and demographic trends

Science.gov (United States)

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara; Sharygin, Ethan; Sherba, Jason

2017-01-01

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001–2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a “business-as-usual” (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km2 yr−1; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40–90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

Rubber and Land-Cover Land-Use Change in Mainland Southeast Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Fox, J. M.; Hurni, K.

2017-12-01

Over the past half century, the five countries of Mainland Southeast Asia (MSEA) - Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam - have witnessed major shifts from predominantly subsistence agrarian economies to increasingly commercialized agriculture. Major drivers of change include policy initiatives that fostered regional economic integration and promoted among other changes rapid expansion of boom-crop plantations. Among the many types of commercial boom crops promoted and grown in MSEA are numerous tree-based products such as rubber, coffee, tree species for pulp and paper (particularly eucalyptus and acacia), cashews, and fruits such as oranges, lychees, and longans. The project proposal hypothesized that most (but not all) tree crops replaced swidden cultivation fields and hence are not necessarily accompanied by deforestation. We used MODIS EVI and SWIR time-series from 2001-2014 to classify changes in tree cover across MSEA; a total of 6849 sample points were used to train the classifier (75%) and verification (25%). The classification consists of 24 classes and 17 classes represent tree crops. Project results suggest that 4.4 m ha of rubber have been planted since 2003; 50% of rubber is planted on former evergreen forest land, 18% on deciduous forest land, and 32% on low vegetation area (former crop lands, bushes, scrub). Tree crops occupy about 8% of the landscape (half of that is rubber). Due to the differences in their political and economic histories these countries display different LCLUCs. In northern Laos, smallholder rubber plantations dominate and shifting cultivation is common in the upland. In southern Laos, large-scale plantations of rubber, coffee, eucalyptus, and sugarcane are widespread. In Thailand, vast areas are covered by annual agriculture; fruit trees and rubber are the prevailing tree crops and are mostly planted by smallholders. In Cambodia, large-scale rubber plantations have expanded in recent years on forest lands; smallholder

Exploring land use change in the Sahel

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Laura Vang

perceptions of land use changes became apparent, however, already in the beginning of 2000, when researchers within the Land Change Science community raised their concerns about general narratives of field expansions that were assumed to progress linearly and be solely driven by population growth. Calls...... for more research on Sahelian land use changes have thus multiplied as the complexity and sometimes intricate processes of land change became apparent, and especially, the need for novel approaches that combine different perspectives has continuously been highlighted. As part of the interdisciplinary...... research program LASYRE (LAnd SYstem REsilience), this thesis responds to thes calls by applying a portfolio of different perspectives to the study of Sahelian land use changes and the causal mechanisms behind them. It examines the land use changes that have taken place in Northern Burkina Faso over...

Monitoring Snow and Land Ice Using Satellite data in the GMES Project CryoLand

Science.gov (United States)

Bippus, Gabriele; Nagler, Thomas

2013-04-01

The main objectives of the project "CryoLand - GMES Service Snow and Land Ice" are to develop, implement and validate services for snow, glaciers and lake and river ice products as a Downstream Service within the Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) program of the European Commission. CryoLand exploits Earth Observation data from current optical and microwave sensors and of the upcoming GMES Sentinel satellite family. The project prepares also the basis for the cryospheric component of the GMES Land Monitoring services. The CryoLand project team consists of 10 partner organisations from Austria, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Romania and is funded by the 7th Framework Program of the European Commission. The CryoLand baseline products for snow include fractional snow extent from optical satellite data, the extent of melting snow from SAR data, and coarse resolution snow water equivalent maps from passive microwave data. Experimental products include maps of snow surface wetness and temperature. The products range from large scale coverage at medium resolution to regional products with high resolution, in order to address a wide user community. Medium resolution optical data (e.g. MODIS, in the near future Sentinel-3) and SAR (ENVISAT ASAR, in the near future Sentinel-1) are the main sources of EO data for generating large scale products in near real time. For generation of regional products high resolution satellite data are used. Glacier products are based on high resolution optical (e.g. SPOT-5, in the near future Sentinel-2) and SAR (TerraSAR-X, in the near future Sentinel-1) data and include glacier outlines, mapping of glacier facies, glacier lakes and ice velocity. The glacier products are generated on users demand. Current test areas are located in the Alps, Norway, Greenland and the Himalayan Mountains. The lake and river ice products include ice extent and its temporal changes and snow extent on ice. The algorithms for these

Land Use and Land-use Changes in Life Cycle Assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

De Rosa, Michele

2017-01-01

The assessment of Land Uses and Land-use Changes (LULUC) impacts has become increasingly complex. Sophisticated modelling tools such as Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) are employed to capture both direct and indirect damages. However, quantitative assessments are often incomplete, dominated...... by environmental aspects. Land uses are a multidisciplinary matter and environmental and sustainable development policies intertwine. Yet, LCAs mostly focus on environmental impacts excluding socioeconomic implications of land occupation. This paper investigates the limitations of current LULUC modelling practices....... Consequently, results informing land policies may be biased towards determined development strategies or hide indirect effects and socioeconomic damages caused by large-scale land acquisitions, such as violation of tenure rights, speculation and displacement. Quantitative assessments of LULUC impacts...

Projected land use changes impacts on water yields in the karst mountain areas of China

Science.gov (United States)

Lang, Yanqing; Song, Wei; Deng, Xiangzheng

2018-04-01

Human-induced land use changes over short time scales have significant impacts on water yield, especially in China because of the rapid social economic development. As the biggest developing country of the world, China's economy is expected to continuously grow with a high speed in the next few decades. Therefore, what kind of land use changes will occur in the future in China? How these changes will influence the water yields? To address this issue, we assessed the water yields in the karst mountain area of China during the periods of 1990-2010 and 2010-2030 by coupling an Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model and a Conversion of Land Use and its Effects (CLUE) model. Three different land use scenarios i.e. natural growth, economic development, and ecological protection, were developed in 2030 using the CLUE model. It was concluded that, given land use changes between 1990 and 2010, total water yields in the karst mountain area are characterized by a trend towards fluctuating reduction. However, total water yields of 2030 in the economic development scenario revealed an increase of 1.25% compared to the actual water yields in 2010. The economy development in karst mountain areas of China in the future has a slight positive influence on water yields.

Estimating land use / land cover changes in Denmark from 1990 - 2012

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Levin, Gregor; Kastrup Blemmer, Morten; Gyldenkærne, Steen

According to the article 3(4) of the Kyoto Protocol, Denmark is obliged to document sequestration and emission of carbon dioxide from land use and land cover and changes in these. This report documents and describes applied data end developed methods aiming at estimating amounts and changes in land...... use and land cover for Denmark for since 1990. Estimation of land use and land cover categories and changes in these is predominantly based on existing categorical (i.e. pre-classified) geographical information. Estimations are elaborated for the period from 1990 to 2005, from 2005 to 2011 and from...... 2011 to 2012. Due to limited availability of historical spatially explicit information, estimations of change in land use and land cover from 1990 up to 2011 do, to some degree, involve decisions based on expert knowledge. Due to a significant increase in the availability of detailed spatially specific...

An alternative approach to indirect land use change: Allocating greenhouse gas effects among different uses of land

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Seungdo; Dale, Bruce E.; Ong, Rebecca G.

2012-01-01

Indirect land use change (iLUC) is hypothesized to occur when increasing demand for land due to bioenergy production displaces food and feed production onto new lands, thereby potentially producing large greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) during the land conversion event. Thus far, the totality of the projected iLUC effect has been assigned to biofuel production. In fact, multiple drivers of land use change exist and the resulting GHG releases should, in fairness, be allocated among these drivers. It seems more useful and intellectually rigorous to allocate potential land use change effects among these many drivers. This paper focuses on how to allocate the environmental consequences of iLUC to the multiple drivers through a function-oriented approach, namely human nutritional requirements for calories and protein. “Food versus Biofuel” issues can then be more usefully addressed as “Nutrition versus Biofuel” issues. Human beings actually have many choices in how we provide ourselves with adequate diets, and these choices have very different GHG and land use consequences. Therefore, in this paper, GHG assigned to iLUC is allocated between ethanol and human dietary preferences via a human nutrition-based method. Applying allocation approaches to iLUC lowers the estimated GHG of iLUC by up to 73% compared to GHG estimates in the GTAP model. For example, global warming intensity (GWI) of ethanol measured as CO 2 equivalent becomes 58.2 g MJ −1 , while GWI of ethanol calculated using GREET is 68.9 g MJ −1 . -- Highlights: ► Biofuel production is one of many factors driving indirect land use change (iLUC). ► A proper allocation of the consequences of iLUC among these drivers is required. ► There are many choices in how we provide ourselves nutritionally adequate diets. ► Greenhouse gas emissions of iLUC are allocated via a human nutrition-based method.

Land-use and land-cover assessment for the study of lifestyle change in a rural Mexican community: The Maycoba Project

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giraldo Mario A

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background In 1995, a study was conducted to identify the effects of traditional and westernized environments on the prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Pima Indians (Pimas in Mexico and the United States. The study concluded that the more traditional lifestyle in Mexico had a protective effect against this metabolic disorder. In the ensuing 15 years, the environmental circumstances of the Mexican Pimas changed, and a follow-up study was conducted to determine the role environmental change plays in the development of diabetes in this genetically susceptible population. A major element of environmental transition relates to land-use and land-cover (LULC changes that could affect physical activity and promote an obesogenic environment. This study examined changes in the region’s LULC to determine whether there have been transitions in agricultural land use and urbanization that would be consistent with a more sedentary lifestyle. Changes were assessed from 1994 aerial photographs and 2007 satellite images. Results The land-cover analysis showed that mixed vegetation and dense trees cover most of the study area. It suggested a rural environment that includes a low percentage of impermeable areas, and it indicated that the area experiencing human intervention covers 7% of the total area. The land-use-change findings showed a decrease or no change in agricultural or ranching areas and a decrease in farmland due to reforestation or revegetation. Three variables from the land-use-change analysis were examined as proxies for lifestyle change: urban development, dwelling-unit density, and variation in the road network. Two of the measures –the amount of urbanization and the number and density of dwelling units—showed increases, most notably in the town of Maycoba. There were only minor changes in the road network: most of the road segments are short and concentrated in Maycoba where most of the buildings, points of interest (e.g., church

Use of Land Use Land Cover Change Mapping Products in Aiding Coastal Habitat Conservation and Restoration Efforts of the Mobile Bay NEP

Science.gov (United States)

Spruce, Joseph P.; Swann, Roberta; Smooth, James

2010-01-01

The Mobile Bay region has undergone significant land use land cover change (LULC) over the last 35 years, much of which is associated with urbanization. These changes have impacted the region s water quality and wildlife habitat availability. In addition, much of the region is low-lying and close to the Gulf, which makes the region vulnerable to hurricanes, climate change (e.g., sea level rise), and sometimes man-made disasters such as the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill. Land use land cover change information is needed to help coastal zone managers and planners to understand and mitigate the impacts of environmental change on the region. This presentation discusses selective results of a current NASA-funded project in which Landsat data over a 34-year period (1974-2008) is used to produce, validate, refine, and apply land use land cover change products to aid coastal habitat conservation and restoration needs of the Mobile Bay National Estuary Program (MB NEP). The project employed a user defined classification scheme to compute LULC change mapping products for the entire region, which includes the majority of Mobile and Baldwin counties. Additional LULC change products have been computed for select coastal HUC-12 sub-watersheds adjacent to either Mobile Bay or the Gulf of Mexico, as part of the MB NEP watershed profile assessments. This presentation will include results of additional analyses of LULC change for sub-watersheds that are currently high priority areas, as defined by MB NEP. Such priority sub-watersheds include those that are vulnerable to impacts from the DWH oil spill, as well as sub-watersheds undergoing urbanization. Results demonstrating the nature and permanence of LULC change trends for these higher priority sub-watersheds and results characterizing change for the entire 34-year period and at approximate 10-year intervals across this period will also be presented. Future work will include development of value-added coastal habitat quality

Simulating spatial patterns of land-use change in Rondonia, Brazil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dale, V.H.; Southworth, F.; O'Neill, R.V.; Rosen, A.

1992-01-01

Large scale deforestation in the Brazilian state of Rondonia has resulted from massive colonization and has caused increases in atmospheric CO 2 , soil degradation, loss of extractive resources, and disruption of indigenous populations. A simulation model has been developed that integrates colonization, socioeconomic, and ecological submodels to estimate spatial patterns and rates of deforestation under different immigration policies, land tenure practices, and road development scenarios. It is used to model the socioeconomic causes and ecological impacts of rapid deforestation in Rondonia. The simulation can be used to identify scenarios that might optimize economic and agricultural sustainability or reduce emigration. Spatial analysis of the simulation projections shows that very different patterns of deforestation can result depending on whether soil suitability, distance to market or lot size is the prime factor affecting a colonist's choice of a lot. Projections of the amount and pattern of deforestation under specific scenarios of land-use choice and management can be used to explore the socioeconomic and ecological implications of land-use change

Integrating climate change in transportation and land use scenario planning : an example from central New Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

2015-04-01

The Central New Mexico Climate Change Scenario Planning Project, an Interagency Transportation, Land Use, and Climate Change Initiative, utilized a scenario planning process to develop a multiagency transportation- and land use-focused development st...

Changing land use intensity in Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

van der Sluis, Theo; Pedroli, Bas; Kristensen, Søren Bech Pilgaard

2016-01-01

In recent decades the intensification of agricultural production in many European countries has been one of the key components of land-use change. The impact of agricultural intensification varies according to national and local contexts and a greater understanding of the drivers of intensification...... will help to mitigate against its negative impacts and harness potential benefits. This paper analyses changes in land use intensity in six case studies in Europe. A total of 437 landowners were interviewed and their responses were analysed in relation to changes in land use intensity and agricultural...... use intensity) versus those in the Netherlands, Denmark and Greece (decreasing). In the Mediterranean cases we observe a process where agriculture is becoming increasingly marginalised, at the same time as changes in function with regard to urbanisation and recreational land uses have taken place...

LAND USE/LAND COVER CHANGES IN SEMI-ARID MOUNTAIN LANDSCAPE IN SOUTHERN INDIA: A GEOINFORMATICS BASED MARKOV CHAIN APPROACH

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. A. Rahaman

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Nowadays land use/ land cover in mountain landscape is in critical condition; it leads to high risky and uncertain environments. These areas are facing multiple stresses including degradation of land resources; vagaries of climate and depletion of water resources continuously affect land use practices and livelihoods. To understand the Land use/Land cover (Lu/Lc changes in a semi-arid mountain landscape, Kallar watershed of Bhavani basin, in southern India has been chosen. Most of the hilly part in the study area covers with forest, plantation, orchards and vegetables and which are highly affected by severe soil erosion, landslide, frequent rainfall failures and associated drought. The foothill regions are mainly utilized for agriculture practices; due to water scarcity and meagre income, the productive agriculture lands are converted into settlement plots and wasteland. Hence, land use/land cover change deduction; a stochastic processed based method is indispensable for future prediction. For identification of land use/land cover, and vegetation changes, Landsat TM, ETM (1995, 2005 and IRS P6- LISS IV (2015 images were used. Through CAMarkov chain analysis, Lu/Lc changes in past three decades (1995, 2005, and 2015 were identified and projected for (2020 and 2025; Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI were used to find the vegetation changes. The result shows that, maximum changes occur in the plantation and slight changes found in forest cover in the hilly terrain. In foothill areas, agriculture lands were decreased while wastelands and settlement plots were increased. The outcome of the results helps to farmer and policy makers to draw optimal lands use planning and better management strategies for sustainable development of natural resources.

Land Use/land Cover Changes in Semi-Arid Mountain Landscape in Southern India: a Geoinformatics Based Markov Chain Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Rahaman, S. A.; Aruchamy, S.; Balasubramani, K.; Jegankumar, R.

2017-05-01

Nowadays land use/ land cover in mountain landscape is in critical condition; it leads to high risky and uncertain environments. These areas are facing multiple stresses including degradation of land resources; vagaries of climate and depletion of water resources continuously affect land use practices and livelihoods. To understand the Land use/Land cover (Lu/Lc) changes in a semi-arid mountain landscape, Kallar watershed of Bhavani basin, in southern India has been chosen. Most of the hilly part in the study area covers with forest, plantation, orchards and vegetables and which are highly affected by severe soil erosion, landslide, frequent rainfall failures and associated drought. The foothill regions are mainly utilized for agriculture practices; due to water scarcity and meagre income, the productive agriculture lands are converted into settlement plots and wasteland. Hence, land use/land cover change deduction; a stochastic processed based method is indispensable for future prediction. For identification of land use/land cover, and vegetation changes, Landsat TM, ETM (1995, 2005) and IRS P6- LISS IV (2015) images were used. Through CAMarkov chain analysis, Lu/Lc changes in past three decades (1995, 2005, and 2015) were identified and projected for (2020 and 2025); Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were used to find the vegetation changes. The result shows that, maximum changes occur in the plantation and slight changes found in forest cover in the hilly terrain. In foothill areas, agriculture lands were decreased while wastelands and settlement plots were increased. The outcome of the results helps to farmer and policy makers to draw optimal lands use planning and better management strategies for sustainable development of natural resources.

Projecting large-scale area changes in land use and land cover for terrestrial carbon analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Ralph J. Alig; Brett J. Butler

2004-01-01

One of the largest changes in US forest type areas over the last half-century has involved pine types in the South. The area of planted pine has increased more than 10-fold since 1950, mostly on private lands. Private landowners have responded to market incentives and government programs, including subsidized afforestation on marginal agricultural land. Timber harvest...

Land-use change arising from rural land exchange : an agent-based simulation model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bakker, Martha M.; Alam, Shah Jamal; van Dijk, Jerry|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/29612642X; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.

Land exchange can be a major factor driving land-use change in regions with high pressure on land, but is generally not incorporated in land-use change models. Here we present an agent-based model to simulate land-use change arising from land exchange between multiple agent types representing

Evaluating Impacts of Land Use/Land Cover Change on Water Resources in Semiarid Regions

Science.gov (United States)

Scanlon, B. R.; Faunt, C. C.; Pool, D. R.; Reedy, R. C.

2017-12-01

Land use/land cover (LU/LC) changes play an integral role in water resources by controlling the partitioning of water at the land surface. Here we evaluate impacts of changing LU/LC on water resources in response to climate variation and change and land use change related to agriculture using data from semiarid regions in the southwestern U.S. Land cover changes in response to climate can amplify or dampen climate impacts on water resources. Changes from wet Pleistocene to much drier Holocene climate resulted in expansion of perennial vegetation, amplifying climate change impacts on water resources by reducing groundwater recharge as shown in soil profiles in the southwestern U.S.. In contrast, vegetation response to climate extremes, including droughts and floods, dampen impacts of these extremes on water resources, as shown by water budget monitoring in the Mojave Desert. Agriculture often involves changes from native perennial vegetation to annual crops increasing groundwater recharge in many semiarid regions. Irrigation based on conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater increases water resource availability, as shown in the Central Valley of California and in southern Arizona. Surface water irrigation in these regions is enhanced by water transported from more humid settings through extensive pipelines. These projects have reversed long-term declining groundwater trends in some regions. While irrigation design has often focused on increased efficiency, "more crop per drop", optimal water resource management may benefit more from inefficient (e.g. flood irrigation) surface-water irrigation combined with efficient (e.g. subsurface drip) irrigation to maximize groundwater recharge, as seen in parts of the Central Valley. Flood irrigation of perennial crops, such as almonds and vineyards, during winter is being considered in the Central Valley to enhance groundwater recharge. Managed aquifer recharge can be considered a special case of conjunctive use of

Land cover change mapping using MODIS time series to improve emissions inventories

Science.gov (United States)

López-Saldaña, Gerardo; Quaife, Tristan; Clifford, Debbie

2016-04-01

MELODIES is an FP7 funded project to develop innovative and sustainable services, based upon Open Data, for users in research, government, industry and the general public in a broad range of societal and environmental benefit areas. Understanding and quantifying land surface changes is necessary for estimating greenhouse gas and ammonia emissions, and for meeting air quality limits and targets. More sophisticated inventories methodologies for at least key emission source are needed due to policy-driven air quality directives. Quantifying land cover changes on an annual basis requires greater spatial and temporal disaggregation of input data. The main aim of this study is to develop a methodology for using Earth Observations (EO) to identify annual land surface changes that will improve emissions inventories from agriculture and land use/land use change and forestry (LULUCF) in the UK. First goal is to find the best sets of input features that describe accurately the surface dynamics. In order to identify annual and inter-annual land surface changes, a times series of surface reflectance was used to capture seasonal variability. Daily surface reflectance images from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) at 500m resolution were used to invert a Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) model to create the seamless time series. Given the limited number of cloud-free observations, a BRDF climatology was used to constrain the model inversion and where no high-scientific quality observations were available at all, as a gap filler. The Land Cover Map 2007 (LC2007) produced by the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH) was used for training and testing purposes. A land cover product was created for 2003 to 2015 and a bayesian approach was created to identified land cover changes. We will present the results of the time series development and the first exercises when creating the land cover and land cover changes products.

Mediterranean California’s water use future under multiple scenarios of developed and agricultural land use change

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Tamara; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Cameron, D. Richard

2017-01-01

With growing demand and highly variable inter-annual water supplies, California’s water use future is fraught with uncertainty. Climate change projections, anticipated population growth, and continued agricultural intensification, will likely stress existing water supplies in coming decades. Using a state-and-transition simulation modeling approach, we examine a broad suite of spatially explicit future land use scenarios and their associated county-level water use demand out to 2062. We examined a range of potential water demand futures sampled from a 20-year record of historical (1992–2012) data to develop a suite of potential future land change scenarios, including low/high change scenarios for urbanization and agriculture as well as “lowest of the low” and “highest of the high” anthropogenic use. Future water demand decreased 8.3 billion cubic meters (Bm3) in the lowest of the low scenario and decreased 0.8 Bm3 in the low agriculture scenario. The greatest increased water demand was projected for the highest of the high land use scenario (+9.4 Bm3), high agricultural expansion (+4.6 Bm3), and high urbanization (+2.1 Bm3) scenarios. Overall, these scenarios show agricultural land use decisions will likely drive future demand more than increasing municipal and industrial uses, yet improved efficiencies across all sectors could lead to potential water use savings. Results provide water managers with information on diverging land use and water use futures, based on historical, observed land change trends and water use histories.

Biogeophysical Impacts of Land-Use Change on Climate Extremes in Low-Emission Scenarios: Results From HAPPI-Land

Science.gov (United States)

Hirsch, Annette L.; Guillod, Benoit P.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Beyerle, Urs; Boysen, Lena R.; Brovkin, Victor; Davin, Edouard L.; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Kim, Hyungjun; Mitchell, Daniel M.; Nitta, Tomoko; Shiogama, Hideo; Sparrow, Sarah; Stehfest, Elke; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Wilson, Simon

2018-03-01

The impacts of land use have been shown to have considerable influence on regional climate. With the recent international commitment to limit global warming to well below 2°C, emission reductions need to be ambitious and could involve major land-use change (LUC). Land-based mitigation efforts to curb emissions growth include increasing terrestrial carbon sequestration through reforestation, or the adoption of bioenergy crops. These activities influence local climate through biogeophysical feedbacks, however, it is uncertain how important they are for a 1.5° climate target. This was the motivation for HAPPI-Land: the half a degree additional warming, prognosis, and projected impacts—land-use scenario experiment. Using four Earth system models, we present the first multimodel results from HAPPI-Land and demonstrate the critical role of land use for understanding the characteristics of regional climate extremes in low-emission scenarios. In particular, our results show that changes in temperature extremes due to LUC are comparable in magnitude to changes arising from half a degree of global warming. We also demonstrate that LUC contributes to more than 20% of the change in temperature extremes for large land areas concentrated over the Northern Hemisphere. However, we also identify sources of uncertainty that influence the multimodel consensus of our results including how LUC is implemented and the corresponding biogeophysical feedbacks that perturb climate. Therefore, our results highlight the urgent need to resolve the challenges in implementing LUC across models to quantify the impacts and consider how LUC contributes to regional changes in extremes associated with sustainable development pathways.

Historical Changes of Land Tenure and Land Use Rights in a Local Community: A Case Study in Lao PDR

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saykham Boutthavong

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Land-titling programs, land and forest allocation programs, and projects on state-allocated land for development and investment in Laos have been key drivers of change in land tenure. These have triggered major shifts in land use rights, from customary, to temporary, and then to permanent land use rights. This article explores how government programs to grant land use rights to individual households have affected the way people have been able to acquire and secure land tenure. For our case study, we selected the village of Napo, the target of many land tenure changes in the past four decades. We collected data from district offices, group discussions with village organizations, and interviews with selected households. The study shows how land use rights shifted over time and reveals that households obtained most of their agricultural land and forestland through a claim process. Original households were mainly land claimers, while migrants were land buyers. The process of formalization and allocation of tenure triggered inequality among households. Attention is needed in future land governance and tenure reforms in order to safeguard the land use rights of local people in an equitable manner.

Land Use Change Modelling in R

Science.gov (United States)

Moulds, S.; Buytaert, W.

2014-12-01

Land use activities, through the provision of natural resources, are essential to human existence. In many regions land use change is degrading biodiversity and threatening the sustainability of ecosystem services upon which communities and livelihoods depend. Spatially explicit land use change models are widely used to understand and quantify key processes that affect land use change and make predictions about past and future change. These models typically include a module to estimate the suitability of different locations to particular land use types based on biophysical and socioeconomic predictor variables and a module to allocate change spatially. They are commonly implemented in languages such as C/C++ and Fortran and made available as standalone applications or through proprietary GIS. In many cases the models are released under closed source licences, limiting the reproducibility of scientific results and making model comparison difficult. This work presents a new R package providing methods and classes to support land use change modelling and model development and comparison within the open source R statistical computing environment. The package makes use of existing R implementations of methods such as random forests and recursive partitioning and regression trees to estimate location suitability, as well as providing methods for statistical model building and evaluation. Currently two spatial allocation methods are provided: the first based on the widely used and tested CLUE-S algorithm and the second a novel stochastic procedure developed for large scale applications. Some common tools for evaluating allocation results are implemented. It is hoped that the package will provide a framework for the development of new routines that can be incorporated into future releases of the code.

Land use and land cover change based on historical space-time model

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Qiong; Zhang, Chi; Liu, Min; Zhang, Yongjing

2016-09-01

Land use and cover change is a leading edge topic in the current research field of global environmental changes and case study of typical areas is an important approach understanding global environmental changes. Taking the Qiantang River (Zhejiang, China) as an example, this study explores automatic classification of land use using remote sensing technology and analyzes historical space-time change by remote sensing monitoring. This study combines spectral angle mapping (SAM) with multi-source information and creates a convenient and efficient high-precision land use computer automatic classification method which meets the application requirements and is suitable for complex landform of the studied area. This work analyzes the histological space-time characteristics of land use and cover change in the Qiantang River basin in 2001, 2007 and 2014, in order to (i) verify the feasibility of studying land use change with remote sensing technology, (ii) accurately understand the change of land use and cover as well as historical space-time evolution trend, (iii) provide a realistic basis for the sustainable development of the Qiantang River basin and (iv) provide a strong information support and new research method for optimizing the Qiantang River land use structure and achieving optimal allocation of land resources and scientific management.

Contributions of projected land use to global radiative forcing ascribed to local sources

Science.gov (United States)

Ward, D. S.; Mahowald, N. M.; Kloster, S.

2013-12-01

With global demand for food expected to dramatically increase and put additional pressures on natural lands, there is a need to understand the environmental impacts of land use and land cover change (LULCC). Previous studies have shown that the magnitude and even the sign of the radiative forcing (RF) of biogeophysical effects from LULCC depends on the latitude and forest ecology of the disturbed region. Here we ascribe the contributions to the global RF by land-use related anthropogenic activities to their local sources, organized on a grid of 1.9 degrees latitude by 2.5 degrees longitude. We use RF estimates for the year 2100, using five future LULCC projections, computed from simulations with the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Land Model and Community Atmosphere Models and additional offline analyses. Our definition of the LULCC RF includes changes to terrestrial carbon storage, methane and nitrous oxide emissions, atmospheric chemistry, aerosol emissions, and surface albedo. We ascribe the RF to gridded locations based on LULCC-related emissions of relevant trace gases and aerosols, including emissions from fires. We find that the largest contributions to the global RF in year 2100 from LULCC originate in the tropics for all future scenarios. In fact, LULCC is the largest tropical source of anthropogenic RF. The LULCC RF in the tropics is dominated by emissions of CO2 from deforestation and methane emissions from livestock and soils. Land surface albedo change is rarely the dominant forcing agent in any of the future LULCC projections, at any location. By combining the five future scenarios we find that deforested area at a specific tropical location can be used to predict the contribution to global RF from LULCC at that location (the relationship does not hold as well in the extratropics). This information could support global efforts like REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation), that aim to reduce greenhouse gas

Derived crop management data for the LandCarbon Project

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, Gail; Liu, Shu-Guang; Oeding, Jennifer

2011-01-01

The LandCarbon project is assessing potential carbon pools and greenhouse gas fluxes under various scenarios and land management regimes to provide information to support the formulation of policies governing climate change mitigation, adaptation and land management strategies. The project is unique in that spatially explicit maps of annual land cover and land-use change are created at the 250-meter pixel resolution. The project uses vast amounts of data as input to the models, including satellite, climate, land cover, soil, and land management data. Management data have been obtained from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) and USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) that provides information regarding crop type, crop harvesting, manure, fertilizer, tillage, and cover crop (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2011a, b, c). The LandCarbon team queried the USDA databases to pull historic crop-related management data relative to the needs of the project. The data obtained was in table form with the County or State Federal Information Processing Standard (FIPS) and the year as the primary and secondary keys. Future projections were generated for the A1B, A2, B1, and B2 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) scenarios using the historic data values along with coefficients generated by the project. The PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE) modeling framework (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment, 2006) was used to develop coefficients for each IPCC SRES scenario, which were applied to the historic management data to produce future land management practice projections. The LandCarbon project developed algorithms for deriving gridded data, using these tabular management data products as input. The derived gridded crop type, crop harvesting, manure, fertilizer, tillage, and cover crop

The Columbian Encounter and Land-Use Change.

Science.gov (United States)

Turner, B. L. II, Butzer, Karl W.

1992-01-01

Discusses land use patterns in fifteenth-century Europe and in the Americas and the mutual influence (initiated by Columbus's arrival in the Americas) that led to land use change. Presents a historical perspective and categorization of contemporary global land use changes for the purpose of highlighting associations between past and present global…

Land Use and Land Cover Change Analysis along the Coastal ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Agribotix GCS 077

are carried out on the land usually effect changes in its cover. ... The FAO document on land cover classification systems, (2000) partly answers this ... over the surface land, including water, vegetation, bare soils and or artificial structures. ... diseases may occur more readily in areas exposed by Land Use and Land Cover ...

Global protected area expansion is compromised by projected land-use and parochialism.

Science.gov (United States)

Montesino Pouzols, Federico; Toivonen, Tuuli; Di Minin, Enrico; Kukkala, Aija S; Kullberg, Peter; Kuusterä, Johanna; Lehtomäki, Joona; Tenkanen, Henrikki; Verburg, Peter H; Moilanen, Atte

2014-12-18

Protected areas are one of the main tools for halting the continuing global biodiversity crisis caused by habitat loss, fragmentation and other anthropogenic pressures. According to the Aichi Biodiversity Target 11 adopted by the Convention on Biological Diversity, the protected area network should be expanded to at least 17% of the terrestrial world by 2020 (http://www.cbd.int/sp/targets). To maximize conservation outcomes, it is crucial to identify the best expansion areas. Here we show that there is a very high potential to increase protection of ecoregions and vertebrate species by expanding the protected area network, but also identify considerable risk of ineffective outcomes due to land-use change and uncoordinated actions between countries. We use distribution data for 24,757 terrestrial vertebrates assessed under the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) 'red list of threatened species', and terrestrial ecoregions (827), modified by land-use models for the present and 2040, and introduce techniques for global and balanced spatial conservation prioritization. First, we show that with a coordinated global protected area network expansion to 17% of terrestrial land, average protection of species ranges and ecoregions could triple. Second, if projected land-use change by 2040 (ref. 11) takes place, it becomes infeasible to reach the currently possible protection levels, and over 1,000 threatened species would lose more than 50% of their present effective ranges worldwide. Third, we demonstrate a major efficiency gap between national and global conservation priorities. Strong evidence is shown that further biodiversity loss is unavoidable unless international action is quickly taken to balance land-use and biodiversity conservation. The approach used here can serve as a framework for repeatable and quantitative assessment of efficiency, gaps and expansion of the global protected area network globally, regionally and nationally, considering

Land-use and Land-cover Change from 1974 to 2008 around Mobile Bay

Science.gov (United States)

Ellis, Jean; Spruce, Joseph; Smoot, James; Hilbert, Kent; Swann, Roberta

2008-01-01

This project is a Gulf of Mexico Application Pilot in which NASA Stennis Space Center (SSC) is working within a regional collaboration network of the Gulf of Mexico Alliance. NASA researchers, with support from the NASA SSC Applied Science Program Steering Committee, employed multi-temporal Landsat data to assess land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes in the coastal counties of Mobile and Baldwin, AL, between 1974 and 2008. A multi-decadal time-series, coastal LULC product unique to NASA SSC was produced. The geographic extent and nature of change was quantified for the open water, barren, upland herbaceous, non-woody wetland, upland forest, woody wetland, and urban landscapes. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Coastal Development Data Center (NCDDC) will assist with the transition of the final product to the operational end user, which primarily is the Mobile Bay National Estuary Program (MBNEP). We found substantial LULC change over the 34-year study period, much more than is evident when the change occurring in the last years. Between 1974 and 2008, the upland forest landscape lost almost 6% of the total acreage, while urban land cover increased by slightly more than 3%. With exception to open water, upland forest is the dominant landscape, accounting for about 25-30% of the total area.

Multi-scale, multi-model assessment of projected land allocation

Science.gov (United States)

Vernon, C. R.; Huang, M.; Chen, M.; Calvin, K. V.; Le Page, Y.; Kraucunas, I.

2017-12-01

Effects of land use and land cover change (LULCC) on climate are generally classified into two scale-dependent processes: biophysical and biogeochemical. An extensive amount of research has been conducted related to the impact of each process under alternative climate change futures. However, these studies are generally focused on the impacts of a single process and fail to bridge the gap between sector-driven scale dependencies and any associated dynamics. Studies have been conducted to better understand the relationship of these processes but their respective scale has not adequately captured overall interdependencies between land surface changes and changes in other human-earth systems (e.g., energy, water, economic, etc.). There has also been considerable uncertainty surrounding land use land cover downscaling approaches due to scale dependencies. Demeter, a land use land cover downscaling and change detection model, was created to address this science gap. Demeter is an open-source model written in Python that downscales zonal land allocation projections to the gridded resolution of a user-selected spatial base layer (e.g., MODIS, NLCD, EIA CCI, etc.). Demeter was designed to be fully extensible to allow for module inheritance and replacement for custom research needs, such as flexible IO design to facilitate the coupling of Earth system models (e.g., the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM)) to integrated assessment models (e.g., the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)). In this study, we first assessed the sensitivity of downscaled LULCC scenarios at multiple resolutions from Demeter to its parameters by comparing them to historical LULC change data. "Optimal" values of key parameters for each region were identified and used to downscale GCAM-based future scenarios consistent with those in the Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP). Demeter-downscaled land use scenarios were then compared to the

Assessing Ecological Impacts According to Land Use Change

Science.gov (United States)

Jeong, S.; Lee, D. K.; Jeong, W.; Jeong, S. G.; Jin, Y.

2015-12-01

Land use patterns have changed by human activities, and it has affected the structure and dynamics of ecosystems. In particular, the conversion of forests into other land use has caused environmental degradation and loss of biodiversity. The evaluation of species and their habitat can be preferentially considered to prevent or minimize the adverse effects of land use change. The objective of study is identifying the impacts of environmental conditions on forest ecosystems by comparing ecological changes with time series spatial data. Species distribution models were developed for diverse species with presence data and time-series environmental variables, which allowed comparison of the habitat suitability and connectivity. Habitat suitability and connectivity were used to estimate impacts of forest ecosystems due to land use change. Our result suggested that the size and degree of ecological impacts are were different depending on the properties of land use change. The elements and species were greatly affected by the land use change according to the results. This study suggested that a methodology for measuring the interference of land use change in species habitat and connectivity. Furthermore, it will help to conserve and manage forest by identifying priority conservation areas with influence factor and scale.

Open land use map

OpenAIRE

Mildorf, T.; Charvát, K.; Jezek, J.; Templer, Simon; Malewski, Christian

2014-01-01

Open Land Use Map is an initiative that has been started by the Plan4business project and that will be extended as part of the SDI4Apps project in the future. This service aims to create an improved worldwide land use map. The initial map will be prepared using the CORINE Land Cover, Global Cover dataset and Open Street Map. Contributors, mainly volunteers, will able to change the geometry and assign up-to-date land use according to the HILUCS specification. For certain regions more detailed ...

Biodiversity data obsolescence and land uses changes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nora Escribano

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Background Primary biodiversity records (PBR are essential in many areas of scientific research as they document the biodiversity through time and space. However, concerns about PBR quality and fitness-for-use have grown, especially as derived from taxonomical, geographical and sampling effort biases. Nonetheless, the temporal bias stemming from data ageing has received less attention. We examine the effect of changes in land use in the information currentness, and therefore data obsolescence, in biodiversity databases. Methods We created maps of land use changes for three periods (1956–1985, 1985–2000 and 2000–2012 at 5-kilometres resolution. For each cell we calculated the percentage of land use change within each period. We then overlaid distribution data about small mammals, and classified each data as ‘non-obsolete or ‘obsolete,’ depending on both the amount of land use changes in the cell, and whether changes occurred at or after the data sampling’s date. Results A total of 14,528 records out of the initial 59,677 turned out to be non-obsolete after taking into account the changes in the land uses in Navarra. These obsolete data existed in 115 of the 156 cells analysed. Furthermore, more than one half of the remaining cells holding non-obsolete records had not been visited at least for the last fifteen years. Conclusion Land use changes challenge the actual information obtainable from biodiversity datasets and therefore its potential uses. With the passage of time, one can expect a steady increase in the availability and use of biological records—but not without them becoming older and likely to be obsolete by land uses changes. Therefore, it becomes necessary to assess records’ obsolescence, as it may jeopardize the knowledge and perception of biodiversity patterns.

Assessing the impacts of climate and land use and land cover change on the freshwater availability in the Brahmaputra River basin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Md Shahriar Pervez

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Study Region: Brahmaputra River basin in South Asia.Study Focus: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was used to evaluate sensitivities and patterns in freshwater availability due to projected climate and land use changes in the Brahmaputra basin. The daily observed discharge at Bahadurabad station in Bangladesh was used to calibrate and validate the model and analyze uncertainties with a sequential uncertainty fitting algorithm. The sensitivities and impacts of projected climate and land use changes on basin hydrological components were simulated for the A1B and A2 scenarios and analyzed relative to a baseline scenario of 1988–2004.New hydrological insights for the region: Basin average annual ET was found to be sensitive to changes in CO2 concentration and temperature, while total water yield, streamflow, and groundwater recharge were sensitive to changes in precipitation. The basin hydrological components were predicted to increase with seasonal variability in response to climate and land use change scenarios. Strong increasing trends were predicted for total water yield, streamflow, and groundwater recharge, indicating exacerbation of flooding potential during August–October, but strong decreasing trends were predicted, indicating exacerbation of drought potential during May–July of the 21st century. The model has potential to facilitate strategic decision making through scenario generation integrating climate change adaptation and hazard mitigation policies to ensure optimized allocation of water resources under a variable and changing climate. Keywords: Brahmaputra, Freshwater availability, SWAT, Streamflow, Climate change, Land use change

Linking process and pattern of land use change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Overmars, Koen Pieter

2006-01-01

Land use change results from the interaction between the human and the natural system and therefore various scientific disciplines have developed paradigms and methods to study land use change. However, these disciplinary approaches can only cover part of the complex system of land use change. The

THE EFFECT OF LAND USE CHANGE ON LAND SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE NETHERLANDS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Youneszadeh

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The Netherlands is a small country with a relatively large population which experienced a rapid rate of land use changes from 2000 to 2008 years due to the industrialization and population increase. Land use change is especially related to the urban expansion and open agriculture reduction due to the enhanced economic growth. This research reports an investigation into the application of remote sensing and geographical information system (GIS in combination with statistical methods to provide a quantitative information on the effect of land use change on the land surface temperature. In this study, remote sensing techniques were used to retrieve the land surface temperature (LST by using the MODIS Terra (MOD11A2 Satellite imagery product. As land use change alters the thermal environment, the land surface temperature (LST could be a proper change indicator to show the thermal changes in relation with land use changes. The Geographical information system was further applied to extract the mean yearly land surface temperature (LST for each land use type and each province in the 2003, 2006 and 2008 years, by using the zonal statistic techniques. The results show that, the inland water and offshore area has the highest night land surface temperature (LST. Furthermore, the Zued (South-Holland province has the highest night LST value in the 2003, 2006 and 2008 years. The result of this research will be helpful tool for urban planners and environmental scientists by providing the critical information about the land surface temperature.

Additive threats from pathogens, climate and land-use change for global amphibian diversity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hof, Christian; Bastos Araujo, Miguel; Jetz, Walter

2011-01-01

Amphibian population declines far exceed those of other vertebrate groups, with 30% of all species listed as threatened by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. The causes of these declines are a matter of continued research, but probably include climate change, land-use change...... to be found in Africa, parts of northern South America and the Andes. Regions with the highest projected impact of land-use and climate change coincide, but there is little spatial overlap with regions highly threatened by the fungal disease. Overall, the areas harbouring the richest amphibian faunas...... and spread of the pathogenic fungal disease chytridiomycosis. Here we assess the spatial distribution and interactions of these primary threats in relation to the global distribution of amphibian species. We show that the greatest proportions of species negatively affected by climate change are projected...

Techniques for land use change detection using Landsat imagery

Science.gov (United States)

Angelici, G. L.; Bryant, N. A.; Friedman, S. Z.

1977-01-01

A variety of procedures were developed for the delineation of areas of land use change using Landsat Multispectral Scanner data and the generation of statistics revealing the nature of the changes involved (i.e., number of acres changed from rural to urban). Techniques of the Image Based Information System were utilized in all stages of the procedure, from logging the Landsat data and registering two frames of imagery, to extracting the changed areas and printing tabulations of land use change in acres. Two alternative methods of delineating land use change are presented while enumerating the steps of the entire process. The Houston, Texas urban area, and the Orlando, Florida urban area, are used as illustrative examples of various procedures.

Projected Impacts of Bioenergy-Demand-Induced Land Use and Cover Changes on Regional Climate in Central Europe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fang Yin

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Energy shortfalls are becoming more and more serious all over the world, and worldwide governments have tried to promote the development of biofuels in order to mitigate the climatic impacts of massive fossil fuel consumption. Since the land is the main input factor of the bioenergy production, the development of biofuels will inevitably lead to change of the land use structure and allocation and thereby affect the climate system. With Central Europe as the study area, this study explored the impacts of land use/land cover change (LUCC on climate under the influence of demand of bioenergy production for land resources. First, the land use structure from 2010 to 2050 is simulated with the Agriculture and Land Use model in MiniCam. The result indicates that the main conversion will be mainly from grassland and forest to cropland and from cropland to grassland. Then the Dynamics of Land System model was used to spatially simulate the LUCC in the future. The impacts of LUCC on the climate were analyzed on the basis of simulation with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model. The climate change will be characterized by the increase of latent heat flux and temperature and the decrease of precipitation.

Land-cover change in the Ozark Highlands, 1973-2000

Science.gov (United States)

Karstensen, Krista A.

2010-01-01

Led by the Geographic Analysis and Monitoring Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in collaboration with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the Land-Cover Trends Project was initiated in 1999 and aims to document the types, geographic distributions, and rates of land-cover change on a region by region basis for the conterminous United States, and to determine some of the key drivers and consequences of the change (Loveland and others, 2002). For 1973, 1980, 1986, 1992, and 2000 land-cover maps derived from the Landsat series are classified by visual interpretation, inspection of historical aerial photography and ground survey, into 11 land-cover classes. The classes are defined to capture land cover that is discernable in Landsat data. A stratified probability-based sampling methodology undertaken within the 84 Omernik Level III Ecoregions (Omernik, 1987) was used to locate the blocks, with 9 to 48 blocks per ecoregion. The sampling was designed to enable a statistically robust 'scaling up' of the sample-classification data to estimate areal land-cover change within each ecoregion (Loveland and others, 2002; Stehman and others, 2005). At the time of writing, approximately 90 percent of the 84 conterminous United States ecoregions have been processed by the Land-Cover Trends Project. Results from these completed ecoregions illustrate that across the conterminous United States there is no single profile of land-cover/land-use change, rather, there are varying pulses affected by clusters of change agents (Loveland and others, 2002). Land-Cover Trends Project results for the conterminous United States to-date are being used for collaborative environmental change research with partners such as; the National Science Foundation, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. The strategy has also been adapted for use in a NASA global

Modeling green infrastructure land use changes on future air ...

Science.gov (United States)

Green infrastructure can be a cost-effective approach for reducing stormwater runoff and improving water quality as a result, but it could also bring co-benefits for air quality: less impervious surfaces and more vegetation can decrease the urban heat island effect, and also result in more removal of air pollutants via dry deposition with increased vegetative surfaces. Cooler surface temperatures can also decrease ozone formation through the increases of NOx titration; however, cooler surface temperatures also lower the height of the boundary layer resulting in more concentrated pollutants within the same volume of air, especially for primary emitted pollutants (e.g. NOx, CO, primary particulate matter). To better understand how green infrastructure impacts air quality, the interactions between all of these processes must be considered collectively. In this study, we use a comprehensive coupled meteorology-air quality model (WRF-CMAQ) to simulate the influence of planned land use changes that include green infrastructure in Kansas City (KC) on regional meteorology and air quality. Current and future land use data was provided by the Mid-America Regional Council for 2012 and 2040 (projected land use due to population growth, city planning and green infrastructure implementation). These land use datasets were incorporated into the WRF-CMAQ modeling system allowing the modeling system to propagate the changes in vegetation and impervious surface coverage on meteoro

Simulating feedbacks in land use and land cover change models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verburg, P.H.

2006-01-01

In spite of the many advances in land use and land cover change modelling over the past decade many challenges remain. One of these challenges relates to the explicit treatment of feedback mechanisms in descriptive models of the land use system. This paper argues for model-based analysis to explore

Land Use Change and Land Degradation in Southeastern Mediterranean Spain

Science.gov (United States)

Symeonakis, Elias; Calvo-Cases, Adolfo; Arnau-Rosalen, Eva

2007-07-01

The magnitude of the environmental and social consequences of soil erosion and land degradation in semiarid areas of the Mediterranean region has long been recognized and studied. This paper investigates the interrelationship between land use/cover (LULC) changes and land degradation using remotely sensed and ancillary data for southeastern Spain. The area of study, the Xaló River catchment situated in the north of the Alicante Province, has been subjected to a number of LULC changes during the second half of the 20th century such as agricultural abandonment, forest fires, and tourist development. Aerial photographs dating back to 1956 were used for the delineation of historic LULC types; Landsat ETM+ data were used for the analysis and mapping of current conditions. Two important indicators of land degradation, namely, susceptibility to surface runoff and soil erosion, were estimated for the two dates using easily parametrizable models. The comparison of 1956 to 2000 conditions shows an overall “recuperating” trend over the catchment and increased susceptibility to soil erosion only in 3% of the catchment area. The results also identify potential degradation hot-spots where mitigation measures should be taken to prevent further degradation. The readily implemented methodology, based on modest data requirements demonstrated by this study, is a useful tool for catchment to regional scale land use change and land degradation studies and strategic planning for environmental management.

Effect of Technology Driven Agricultural Land Use Change on Regional Hydroclimate

Science.gov (United States)

Arritt, R. W.; Sines, T. R.; Groisman, P. Y.; Gelder, B. K.

2017-12-01

During the mid-20th century motorized equipment replaced work animals in the central U.S. This led to a 95% decrease in farmland for producing oats, which had mostly been used as feed for horses. Much of this land was converted to more profitable crops such as soybeans and maize. The same period also saw a strong shift of the central U.S. precipitation intensity spectrum toward heavier events. Was this a coincidence, or is there a causal relationship? We investigate possible connections between this technology-driven land use change and regional hydroclimate by performing multi-decadal simulations over the central U.S. using the WRF-ARW regional climate model coupled with the Community Land Model (CLM 4.5). Cropland planted in maize, soybean, winter wheat, small grains (which includes oats and spring wheat), and other C3 and C4 crops were reconstructed on a decade by decade basis from 1940-2010 using county-level crop data. These crop distributions were used as land surface boundary conditions for two multi-decadal regional climate simulations, one with 1940s land use and another with modern (circa 2010) land use. Modern land use produced a shift in the simulated daily precipitation intensity spectrum toward heavy events, with higher frequencies of heavy precipitation amounts and lower frequencies of light amounts compared to 1940s land use. The results suggest that replacement of work animals by mechanized transport led to land use changes that produced about 10-30% of the observed trend toward more intense precipitation over the central United States. We therefore recommend that policy- and technology-driven changes in crop type be taken into account when projecting future climate and water resources.

Changing relationships between land use and environmental characteristics and their consequences for spatially explicit land-use change prediction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bakker, M.; Veldkamp, A.

2012-01-01

Spatially explicit land-use change prediction is often based on environmental characteristics of land-use types, such as soil type and slope, as observed at one time instant. This approach presumes that relationships between land use and environment are constant over time. We argue that such

Spatial Predictive Modeling and Remote Sensing of Land Use Change in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

Science.gov (United States)

Goetz, Scott J.; Bockstael, Nancy E.; Jantz, Claire A.

2005-01-01

This project was focused on modeling the processes by which increasing demand for developed land uses, brought about by changes in the regional economy and the socio-demographics of the region, are translated into a changing spatial pattern of land use. Our study focused on a portion of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed where the spatial patterns of sprawl represent a set of conditions generally prevalent in much of the U.S. Working in the region permitted us access to (i) a time-series of multi-scale and multi-temporal (including historical) satellite imagery and (ii) an established network of collaborating partners and agencies willing to share resources and to utilize developed techniques and model results. In addition, a unique parcel-level tax assessment database and linked parcel boundary maps exists for two counties in the Maryland portion of this region that made it possible to establish a historical cross-section time-series database of parcel level development decisions. Scenario analyses of future land use dynamics provided critical quantitative insight into the impact of alternative land management and policy decisions. These also have been specifically aimed at addressing growth control policies aimed at curbing exurban (sprawl) development. Our initial technical approach included three components: (i) spatial econometric modeling of the development decision, (ii) remote sensing of suburban change and residential land use density, including comparisons of past change from Landsat analyses and more traditional sources, and (iii) linkages between the two through variable initialization and supplementation of parcel level data. To these we added a fourth component, (iv) cellular automata modeling of urbanization, which proved to be a valuable addition to the project. This project has generated both remote sensing and spatially explicit socio-economic data to estimate and calibrate the parameters for two different types of land use change models and has

Assessing development pressure in the Chesapeake Bay watershed: an evaluation of two land-use change models.

Science.gov (United States)

Claggett, Peter R; Jantz, Claire A; Goetz, Scott J; Bisland, Carin

2004-06-01

Natural resource lands in the Chesapeake Bay watershed are increasingly susceptible to conversion into developed land uses, particularly as the demand for residential development grows. We assessed development pressure in the Baltimore-Washington, DC region, one of the major urban and suburban centers in the watershed. We explored the utility of two modeling approaches for forecasting future development trends and patterns by comparing results from a cellular automata model, SLEUTH (slope, land use, excluded land, urban extent, transportation), and a supply/demand/allocation model, the Western Futures Model. SLEUTH can be classified as a land-cover change model and produces projections on the basis of historic trends of changes in the extent and patterns of developed land and future land protection scenarios. The Western Futures Model derives forecasts from historic trends in housing units, a U.S. Census variable, and exogenously supplied future population projections. Each approach has strengths and weaknesses, and combining the two has advantages and limitations.

Impact of land cover and land use change on runoff characteristics.

Science.gov (United States)

Sajikumar, N; Remya, R S

2015-09-15

Change in Land Cover and Land Use (LCLU) influences the runoff characteristics of a drainage basin to a large extent, which in turn, affects the surface and groundwater availability of the area, and hence leads to further change in LCLU. This forms a vicious circle. Hence it becomes essential to assess the effect of change in LCLU on the runoff characteristics of a region in general and of small watershed levels (sub-basin levels) in particular. Such an analysis can effectively be carried out by using watershed simulation models with integrated GIS frame work. SWAT (Soil and Water Analysis Tool) model, being one of the versatile watershed simulation models, is found to be suitable for this purpose as many GIS integration modules are available for this model (e.g. ArcSWAT, MWSWAT). Watershed simulation using SWAT requires the land use and land cover data, soil data and many other features. With the availability of repository of satellite imageries, both from Indian and foreign sources, it becomes possible to use the concurrent local land use and land cover data, thereby enabling more accurate modelling of small watersheds. Such availability will also enable us to assess the effect of LCLU on runoff characteristics and their reverse impact. The current study assesses the effect of land use and land cover on the runoff characteristics of two watersheds in Kerala, India. It also assesses how the change in land use and land cover in the last few decades affected the runoff characteristics of these watersheds. It is seen that the reduction in the forest area amounts to 60% and 32% in the analysed watersheds. However, the changes in the surface runoff for these watersheds are not comparable with the changes in the forest area but are within 20%. Similarly the maximum (peak) value of runoff has increased by an amount of 15% only. The lesser (aforementioned) effect than expected might be due to the fact that forest has been converted to agricultural purpose with major

Determining robust impacts of land-use induced land-cover changes on surface climate over North America and Eurasia; Results from the first set of LUCID experiments

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Noblet-Ducoudré, de N.; Boisier, J.P.; Pitman, A.; Bonan, G.B.; Brovkin, V.; Cruz, F.; Delire, C.; Gayler, V.; Hurk, van den B.J.J.M.; Lawrence, P.J.; Molen, van der M.K.; Müller, C.; Reick, C.H.; Strengers, B.J.; Voldoire, A.

2012-01-01

The project Land-Use and Climate, Identification of Robust Impacts (LUCID) was conceived to address the robustness of biogeophysical impacts of historical land use–land cover change (LULCC). LUCID used seven atmosphere–land models with a common experimental design to explore those impacts of LULCC

Operational monitoring of land-cover change using multitemporal remote sensing data

Science.gov (United States)

Rogan, John

2005-11-01

Land-cover change, manifested as either land-cover modification and/or conversion, can occur at all spatial scales, and changes at local scales can have profound, cumulative impacts at broader scales. The implication of operational land-cover monitoring is that researchers have access to a continuous stream of remote sensing data, with the long term goal of providing for consistent and repetitive mapping. Effective large area monitoring of land-cover (i.e., >1000 km2) can only be accomplished by using remotely sensed images as an indirect data source in land-cover change mapping and as a source for land-cover change model projections. Large area monitoring programs face several challenges: (1) choice of appropriate classification scheme/map legend over large, topographically and phenologically diverse areas; (2) issues concerning data consistency and map accuracy (i.e., calibration and validation); (3) very large data volumes; (4) time consuming data processing and interpretation. Therefore, this dissertation research broadly addresses these challenges in the context of examining state-of-the-art image pre-processing, spectral enhancement, classification, and accuracy assessment techniques to assist the California Land-cover Mapping and Monitoring Program (LCMMP). The results of this dissertation revealed that spatially varying haze can be effectively corrected from Landsat data for the purposes of change detection. The Multitemporal Spectral Mixture Analysis (MSMA) spectral enhancement technique produced more accurate land-cover maps than those derived from the Multitemporal Kauth Thomas (MKT) transformation in northern and southern California study areas. A comparison of machine learning classifiers showed that Fuzzy ARTMAP outperformed two classification tree algorithms, based on map accuracy and algorithm robustness. Variation in spatial data error (positional and thematic) was explored in relation to environmental variables using geostatistical interpolation

Sustainable Mining Land Use for Lignite Based Energy Projects

Science.gov (United States)

Dudek, Michal; Krysa, Zbigniew

2017-12-01

This research aims to discuss complex lignite based energy projects economic viability and its impact on sustainable land use with respect to project risk and uncertainty, economics, optimisation (e.g. Lerchs and Grossmann) and importance of lignite as fuel that may be expressed in situ as deposit of energy. Sensitivity analysis and simulation consist of estimated variable land acquisition costs, geostatistics, 3D deposit block modelling, electricity price considered as project product price, power station efficiency and power station lignite processing unit cost, CO2 allowance costs, mining unit cost and also lignite availability treated as lignite reserves kriging estimation error. Investigated parameters have nonlinear influence on results so that economically viable amount of lignite in optimal pit varies having also nonlinear impact on land area required for mining operation.

Investigating the climate and carbon cycle impacts of CMIP6 Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Community Earth System Model (CESM2)

Science.gov (United States)

Lawrence, P.; Lawrence, D. M.; O'Neill, B. C.; Hurtt, G. C.

2017-12-01

For the next round of CMIP6 climate simulations there are new historical and SSP - RCP land use and land cover change (LULCC) data sets that have been compiled through the Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP). The new time series data include new functionality following lessons learned through CMIP5 project and include new developments in the Community Land Model (CLM5) that will be used in all the CESM2 simulations of CMIP6. These changes include representing explicit crop modeling and better forest representation through the extended to 12 land units of the Global Land Model (GLM). To include this new information in CESM2 and CLM5 simulations new transient land surface data sets have been generated for the historical period 1850 - 2015 and for preliminary SSP - RCP paired future scenarios. The new data sets use updated MODIS Land Cover, Vegetation Continuous Fields, Leaf Area Index and Albedo to describe Primary and Secondary, Forested and Non Forested land units, as well as Rangelands and Pasture. Current day crop distributions are taken from the MIRCA2000 crop data set as done with the CLM 4.5 crop model and used to guide historical and future crop distributions. Preliminary "land only" simulations with CLM5 have been performed for the historical period and for the SSP1-RCP2.6 and SSP3-RCP7 land use and land cover change time series data. Equivalent no land use and land cover change simulations have been run for these periods under the same meteorological forcing data. The "land only" simulations use GSWP3 historical atmospheric forcing data from 1850 to 2010 and then time increasing RCP 8.5 atmospheric CO2 and climate anomalies on top of the current day GSWP3 atmospheric forcing data from 2011 to 2100. The offline simulations provide a basis to evaluate the surface climate, carbon cycle and crop production impacts of changing land use and land cover for each of these periods. To further evaluate the impacts of the new CLM5 model and the CMIP6 land

Climate change impacts on global agricultural land availability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Xiao; Cai Ximing

2011-01-01

Climate change can affect both crop yield and the land area suitable for agriculture. This study provides a spatially explicit estimate of the impact of climate change on worldwide agricultural land availability, considering uncertainty in climate change projections and ambiguity with regard to land classification. Uncertainty in general circulation model (GCM) projections is addressed using data assembled from thirteen GCMs and two representative emission scenarios (A1B and B1 employ CO 2 -equivalent greenhouse gas concentrations of 850 and 600 ppmv, respectively; B1 represents a greener economy). Erroneous data and the uncertain nature of land classifications based on multiple indices (i.e. soil properties, land slope, temperature, and humidity) are handled with fuzzy logic modeling. It is found that the total global arable land area is likely to decrease by 0.8-1.7% under scenario A1B and increase by 2.0-4.4% under scenario B1. Regions characterized by relatively high latitudes such as Russia, China and the US may expect an increase of total arable land by 37-67%, 22-36% and 4-17%, respectively, while tropical and sub-tropical regions may suffer different levels of lost arable land. For example, South America may lose 1-21% of its arable land area, Africa 1-18%, Europe 11-17%, and India 2-4%. When considering, in addition, land used for human settlements and natural conservation, the net potential arable land may decrease even further worldwide by the end of the 21st century under both scenarios due to population growth. Regionally, it is likely that both climate change and population growth will cause reductions in arable land in Africa, South America, India and Europe. However, in Russia, China and the US, significant arable land increases may still be possible. Although the magnitudes of the projected changes vary by scenario, the increasing or decreasing trends in arable land area are regionally consistent.

Landscape Ecological Risk Responses to Land Use Change in the Luanhe River Basin, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ying Li

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Land use change has large effects on natural ecosystems, which is considered to be the main factor in eco-environment change. We analyzed the future characters of land use change by the CLUE-S model and explored landscape ecological risk responses to land use change by the landscape ecological risk index method. Using the Luanhe River Basin as a case study, we simulated future land use change from 2010 to 2030 under 3 scenarios (i.e., trend, high economic growth, and ecological security, and identified the hotspots of land use change. Afterward, we quantitatively investigated the degree of land use development and landscape ecological risk patterns that have occured since 2000 and that are expected to occur until 2030. Results revealed that, under the three scenarios, construction land and forest are expanding mainly at the expense of agriculture land and grassland. The hotspots of land use change are located in the vicinity of Shuangluan and Shuangqiao District of Chengde City in the midstream of the Luanhe River Basin, where urbanization has been strong since 2000 and is projected to continue that way until 2030. During this time period, hotspots of land use development have been gradually transferring from the downstream to the midstream since 2000 and, again, is expected to continue that way until 2030, which will impact the spatial distribution of landscape ecological risk. We found that the landscape ecological risk of the entire basin has shown a negative trend. However, a few areas still have serious ecological risk, which are mainly located in the east of upstream (Duolun County and Weichang County, the middle region (Shuangluan and Shuangqiao District, Chengde County, and Xinglong County, and the downstream (Qinglong County. These can provide key information for land use management, and for helping to prepare future eco-environmental policies in the Luanhe River Basin.

Characterization of salinity and selenium loading and land-use change in Montrose Arroyo, western Colorado, from 1992 to 2010

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, Jennifer L.

2011-01-01

Salinity and selenium are naturally occurring and perva-sive in the lower Gunnison River Basin of Colorado, includ-ing the watershed of Montrose Arroyo. Although some of the salinity and selenium loading in the Montrose Arroyo study area is from natural sources, additional loading has resulted from the introduction of intensive irrigation in the water-shed. With increasing land-use change and the conversion from irrigated agricultural to urban land, land managers and stakeholders need information about the long-term effects of land-use change on salinity and selenium loading. In response to the need to advance salinity and selenium science, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Forum, and Colorado River Water Conservation District, developed a study to characterize salinity and selenium loading and how salinity and selenium sources may relate to land-use change in Montrose Arroyo. This report characterizes changes in salinity and selenium loading to Montrose Arroyo from March 1992 to February 2010 and the magnitude of land-use change between unirrigated desert, irrigated agricultural, and urban land-use/land-cover types, and discusses how the respective loads may relate to land-use change. Montrose Arroyo is an approximately 8-square-mile watershed in Montrose County in western Colorado. Salinity and selenium were studied in Montrose Arroyo in a 2001 study as part of a salinity- and selenium-control lateral project. The robust nature of the historical dataset indicated that Montrose Arroyo was a prime watershed for a follow-up study. Two sites from the 2001 study were used to monitor salinity and selenium loads in Montrose Arroyo in the follow-up study. Over the period of 2 water years and respective irrigation seasons (2008-2010), 27 water-quality samples were collected and streamflow measurements were made at the historical sites MA2 and MA4. Salinity and selenium concen-trations, loads

Carbon dioxide emissions from forestry and peat land using land-use/land-cover changes in North Sumatra, Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Basyuni, M.; Sulistyono, N.; Slamet, B.; Wati, R.

2018-03-01

Forestry and peat land including land-based is one of the critical sectors in the inventory of CO2 emissions and mitigation efforts of climate change. The present study analyzed the land-use and land-cover changes between 2006 and 2012 in North Sumatra, Indonesia with emphasis to CO2 emissions. The land-use/land-cover consists of twenty-one classes. Redd Abacus software version 1.1.7 was used to measure carbon emission source as well as the predicted 2carbon dioxide emissions from 2006-2024. Results showed that historical emission (2006-2012) in this province, significant increases in the intensive land use namely dry land agriculture (109.65%), paddy field (16.23%) and estate plantation (15.11%). On the other hand, land-cover for forest decreased significantly: secondary dry land forest (7.60%), secondary mangrove forest (9.03%), secondary swamp forest (33.98%), and the largest one in the mixed dry land agriculture (79.96%). The results indicated that North Sumatra province is still a CO2 emitter, and the most important driver of emissions mostly derived from agricultural lands that contributed 2carbon dioxide emissions by 48.8%, changing from forest areas into degraded lands (classified as barren land and shrub) shared 30.6% and estate plantation of 22.4%. Mitigation actions to reduce carbon emissions was proposed such as strengthening the forest land, rehabilitation of degraded area, development and plantation forest, forest protection and forest fire control, and reforestation and conservation activity. These mitigation actions have been simulated to reduce 15% for forestry and 18% for peat land, respectively. This data is likely to contribute to the low emission development in North Sumatra.

A Landsat-Based Assessment of Mobile Bay Land Use and Land Cover Change from 1974 to 2008

Science.gov (United States)

Spruce, Joseph; Ellis, Jean; Smoot, James; Swann, Roberta; Graham, William

2009-01-01

The Mobile Bay region has experienced noteworthy land use and land cover (LULC) change in the latter half of the 20th century. Accompanying this change has been urban expansion and a reduction of rural land uses. Much of this LULC change has reportedly occurred since the landfall of Hurricane Frederic in 1979. The Mobile Bay region provides great economic and ecologic benefits to the Nation, including important coastal habitat for a broad diversity of fisheries and wildlife. Regional urbanization threatens the estuary s water quality and aquatic-habitat dependent biota, including commercial fisheries and avian wildlife. Coastal conservation and urban land use planners require additional information on historical LULC change to support coastal habitat restoration and resiliency management efforts. This presentation discusses results of a Gulf of Mexico Application Pilot project that was conducted in 2008 to quantify and assess LULC change from 1974 to 2008. This project was led by NASA Stennis Space Center and involved multiple Gulf of Mexico Alliance (GOMA) partners, including the Mobile Bay National Estuary Program (NEP), the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration s (NOAA s) National Coastal Data Development Center (NCDDC), and the NOAA Coastal Services Center. Nine Landsat images were employed to compute LULC products because of their availability and suitability for the application. The project also used Landsat-based national LULC products, including coastal LULC products from NOAA s Coastal Change & Analysis Program (C-CAP), available at 5-year intervals since 1995. Our study was initiated in part because C-CAP LULC products were not available to assess the region s urbanization prior to 1995 and subsequent to post Hurricane Katrina in 2006. This project assessed LULC change across the 34-year time frame and at decadal and middecadal scales. The study area included the majority of Mobile and Baldwin counties that

Road building, land use and climate change: prospects for environmental governance in the Amazon

OpenAIRE

Perz, Stephen; Brilhante, Silvia; Brown, Foster; Caldas, Marcellus; Ikeda, Santos; Mendoza, Elsa; Overdevest, Christine; Reis, Vera; Reyes, Juan Fernando; Rojas, Daniel; Schmink, Marianne; Souza, Carlos; Walker, Robert

2008-01-01

Some coupled land?climate models predict a dieback of Amazon forest during the twenty-first century due to climate change, but human land use in the region has already reduced the forest cover. The causation behind land use is complex, and includes economic, institutional, political and demographic factors. Pre-eminent among these factors is road building, which facilitates human access to natural resources that beget forest fragmentation. While official government road projects have received...

Using management to address vegetation stress related to land-use and climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Middleton, Beth A.; Boudell, Jere; Fisichelli, Nicholas

2017-01-01

While disturbances such as fire, cutting, and grazing can be an important part of the conservation of natural lands, some adjustments to management designed to mimic natural disturbance may be necessary with ongoing and projected climate change. Stressed vegetation that is incapable of regeneration will be difficult to maintain if adults are experiencing mortality, and/or if their early life-history stages depend on disturbance. A variety of active management strategies employing disturbance are suggested, including resisting, accommodating, or directing vegetation change by manipulating management intensity and frequency. Particularly if land-use change is the main cause of vegetation stress, amelioration of these problems using management may help vegetation resist change (e.g. strategic timing of water release if a water control structure is available). Managers could direct succession by using management to push vegetation toward a new state. Despite the historical effects of management, some vegetation change will not be controllable as climates shift, and managers may have to accept some of these changes. Nevertheless, proactive measures may help managers achieve important conservation goals in the future.

Historical Image Registration and Land-Use Land-Cover Change Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fang-Ju Jao

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Historical aerial images are important to retain past ground surface information. The land-use land-cover change in the past can be identified using historical aerial images. Automatic historical image registration and stitching is essential because the historical image pose information was usually lost. In this study, the Scale Invariant Feature Transform (SIFT algorithm was used for feature extraction. Subsequently, the present study used the automatic affine transformation algorithm for historical image registration, based on SIFT features and control points. This study automatically determined image affine parameters and simultaneously transformed from an image coordinate system to a ground coordinate system. After historical aerial image registration, the land-use land-cover change was analyzed between two different years (1947 and 1975 at the Tseng Wen River estuary. Results show that sandbars and water zones were transformed into a large number of fish ponds between 1947 and 1975.

Large-scale impact of climate change vs. land-use change on future biome shifts in Latin America

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Boit, Alice; Sakschewski, Boris; Boysen, Lena; Cano-Crespo, Ana; Clement, Jan; Garcia-alaniz, Nashieli; Kok, Kasper; Kolb, Melanie; Langerwisch, Fanny; Rammig, Anja; Sachse, René; Eupen, van Michiel; Bloh, von Werner; Clara Zemp, Delphine; Thonicke, Kirsten

2016-01-01

Climate change and land-use change are two major drivers of biome shifts causing habitat and biodiversity loss. What is missing is a continental-scale future projection of the estimated relative impacts of both drivers on biome shifts over the course of this century. Here, we provide such a

Biofuels, land use change and smallholder livelihoods

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hought, Joy Marie; Birch-Thomsen, Torben; Petersen, Jacob

2012-01-01

of biofuel feedstock adoption by smallholders in the northwestern Cambodian province of Banteay Meanchey, a region undergoing rapid land use change following the formal end of the Khmer Rouge era in 1989 and subsequent rural resettlement. Remote sensing data combined with field interviews pointed to three...... discrete phases of land use change in this period: first, as a result of the establishment of new settlements (mainly subsistence rice production); second, via the expansion of cash crop cultivation into forested areas (mainly grown on upland fields); and third, due to the response of smallholders...... market had severe consequences for livelihoods and food security. The paper concludes with a discussion of the probable impacts of the emerging cassava market on trajectories in land use, land ownership, and land access in rural Cambodia. The case looks at biofuel adoption in the context of other land...

Analysis of historical forest fire regime in Madrid region (1984-2010) and its relation with land-use/land-cover changes

Science.gov (United States)

Gómez-Nieto, Israel; Martín, María del Pilar; Salas, Francisco Javier; Gallardo, Marta

2013-04-01

Understanding the interaction between natural and socio-economic factors that determine fire regime is essential to make accurate projections and impact assessments. However, this requires having accurate historical, systematic, homogeneous and spatially explicit information on fire occurrence. Fire databases usually have serious limitations in this regard; therefore other sources of information, such as remote sensing, have emerged as alternatives to generate optimal fire maps on various spatial and temporal scales. Several national and international projects work in order to generate information to study the factors that determine the current fire regime and its future evolution. This work is included in the framework of the project "Forest fires under climate, social and economic Changes in Europe, the Mediterranean and other fire-affected areas of the World" (FUME http://www.fumeproject.eu), which aims to study the changes and factors related to fire regimes through time to determine the potential impacts on vegetation in Mediterranean regions and concrete steps to address future risk scenarios. We analyzed the changes in the fire regime in Madrid region (Spain) in the past three decades (1984-2010) and its relation to land use changes. We identified and mapped fires that have occurred in the region during those years using Landsat satellite images by combining digital techniques and visual analysis. The results show a clear cyclical behaviour of the fire, with years of high incidence (as 1985, 2000 and 2003, highlighted by the number of fires and the area concerned, over 2000 ha) followed by another with a clear occurrence decrease. At the same time, we analyzed the land use changes that have occurred in Madrid region between the early 80s and mid-2000s using as reference the CORINE Land-cover maps (1990, 2000 and 2006) and the Vegetation and Land Use map of the Community of Madrid, 1982. We studied the relationship between fire regimes and observed land-use

Land Cover Land Use change and soil organic carbon under climate variability in the semi-arid West African Sahel (1960-2050)

Science.gov (United States)

Dieye, Amadou M.

Land Cover Land Use (LCLU) change affects land surface processes recognized to influence climate change at local, national and global levels. Soil organic carbon is a key component for the functioning of agro-ecosystems and has a direct effect on the physical, chemical and biological characteristics of the soil. The capacity to model and project LCLU change is of considerable interest for mitigation and adaptation measures in response to climate change. A combination of remote sensing analyses, qualitative social survey techniques, and biogeochemical modeling was used to study the relationships between climate change, LCLU change and soil organic carbon in the semi-arid rural zone of Senegal between 1960 and 2050. For this purpose, four research hypotheses were addressed. This research aims to contribute to an understanding of future land cover land use change in the semi-arid West African Sahel with respect to climate variability and human activities. Its findings may provide insights to enable policy makers at local to national levels to formulate environmentally and economically adapted policy decisions. This dissertation research has to date resulted in two published and one submitted paper.

Increasing Mississippi river discharge throughout the twenty-first century influenced by changes in climate, land use and atmospheric CO2

Science.gov (United States)

Tao, B.; Tian, H.; Ren, W.; Yang, J.; Yang, Q.; He, R.; Cai, W. J.; Lohrenz, S. E.

2014-12-01

Previous studies have demonstrated that changes in temperature and precipitation (hereafter climate change) would influence river discharge, but the relative importance of climate change, land use, and elevated atmospheric CO2 have not yet been fully investigated. Here we examined how river discharge in the Mississippi River basin in the 21st century might be influenced by these factors using the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model driven by atmospheric CO2, downscaled GCMs climate and land use scenarios. Our results suggest that river discharge would be substantially enhanced (10.7-59.8%) by the 2090s compared to the recent decade (2000s), though large discrepancies exist among different climate, atmospheric CO2, and land use change scenarios. Our factorial analyses further indicate that the combined effects of land use change and human-induced atmospheric CO2 elevation on river discharge would outweigh climate change effect under the high emission scenario (A2) of Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change. Our study offers the first attempt to project potential changes in river discharge in response to multiple future environmental changes. It demonstrates the importance of land use change and atmospheric CO2 concentrations in projecting future changes in hydrologic processes. The projected increase river discharge implies that riverine fluxes of carbon, nutrients and pesticide from the MRB to the coastal regions would increase in the future, and thus may influence the states of ocean acidification and hypoxia and deteriorate ocean water quality. Further efforts will also be needed to account for additional environmental factors (such as nitrogen deposition, tropospheric ozone pollution, dam construction, etc.) in projecting changes in the hydrological cycle.

Future integrated aquifer vulnerability assessment considering land use / land cover and climate change using DRASTIC and SWAT

Science.gov (United States)

Jang, W.; Engel, B.; Chaubey, I.

2015-12-01

Climate change causes significant changes to temperature regimes and precipitation patterns across the world. Such alterations in climate pose serious risks for not only inland freshwater ecosystems but also groundwater systems, and may adversely affect numerous critical services they provide to humans. All groundwater results from precipitation, and precipitation is affected by climate change. Climate change is also influenced by land use / land cover (LULC) change and vice versa. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, climate change is caused by global warming which is generated by the increase of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the atmosphere. LULC change is a major driving factor causing an increase in GHG emissions. LULC change data (years 2006-2100) will be produced by the Land Transformation Model (LTM) which simulates spatial patterns of LULC change over time. MIROC5 (years 2006-2100) will be obtained considering GCMs and ensemble characteristics such as resolution and trend of temperature and precipitation which is a consistency check with observed data from local weather stations and historical data from GCMs output data. Thus, MIROC5 will be used to account for future climate change scenarios and relationship between future climate change and alteration of groundwater quality in this study. For efficient groundwater resources management, integrated aquifer vulnerability assessments (= intrinsic vulnerability + hazard potential assessment) are required. DRASTIC will be used to evaluate intrinsic vulnerability, and aquifer hazard potential will be evaluated by Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) which can simulate pollution potential from surface and transport properties of contaminants. Thus, for effective integrated aquifer vulnerability assessment for LULC and climate change in the Midwestern United States, future projected LULC and climate data from the LTM and GCMs will be incorporated with DRASTIC and SWAT. It is

Incorporating changes in albedo in estimating the climate mitigation benefits of land use change projects

Science.gov (United States)

Bird, D. N.; Kunda, M.; Mayer, A.; Schlamadinger, B.; Canella, L.; Johnston, M.

2008-04-01

Some climate scientists are questioning whether the practice of converting of non-forest lands to forest land (afforestation or reforestation) is an effective climate change mitigation option. The discussion focuses particularly on areas where the new forest is primarily coniferous and there is significant amount of snow since the increased climate forcing due to the change in albedo may counteract the decreased climate forcing due to carbon dioxide removal. In this paper, we develop a stand-based model that combines changes in surface albedo, solar radiation, latitude, cloud cover and carbon sequestration. As well, we develop a procedure to convert carbon stock changes to equivalent climatic forcing or climatic forcing to equivalent carbon stock changes. Using the model, we investigate the sensitivity of combined affects of changes in surface albedo and carbon stock changes to model parameters. The model is sensitive to amount of cloud, atmospheric absorption, timing of canopy closure, carbon sequestration rate among other factors. The sensitivity of the model is investigated at one Canadian site, and then the model is tested at numerous sites across Canada. In general, we find that the change in albedo reduces the carbon sequestration benefits by approximately 30% over 100 years, but this is not drastic enough to suggest that one should not use afforestation or reforestation as a climate change mitigation option. This occurs because the forests grow in places where there is significant amount of cloud in winter. As well, variations in sequestration rate seem to be counterbalanced by the amount and timing of canopy closure. We close by speculating that the effects of albedo may also be significant in locations at lower latitudes, where there are less clouds, and where there are extended dry seasons. These conditions make grasses light coloured and when irrigated crops, dark forests or other vegetation such as biofuels replace the grasses, the change in carbon

Analyzing Land Use/Land Cover Changes Using Remote Sensing and GIS in Rize, North-East Turkey.

Science.gov (United States)

Reis, Selçuk

2008-10-01

Mapping land use/land cover (LULC) changes at regional scales is essential for a wide range of applications, including landslide, erosion, land planning, global warming etc. LULC alterations (based especially on human activities), negatively effect the patterns of climate, the patterns of natural hazard and socio-economic dynamics in global and local scale. In this study, LULC changes are investigated by using of Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in Rize, North-East Turkey. For this purpose, firstly supervised classification technique is applied to Landsat images acquired in 1976 and 2000. Image Classification of six reflective bands of two Landsat images is carried out by using maximum likelihood method with the aid of ground truth data obtained from aerial images dated 1973 and 2002. The second part focused on land use land cover changes by using change detection comparison (pixel by pixel). In third part of the study, the land cover changes are analyzed according to the topographic structure (slope and altitude) by using GIS functions. The results indicate that severe land cover changes have occurred in agricultural (36.2%) (especially in tea gardens), urban (117%), pasture (-72.8%) and forestry (-12.8%) areas has been experienced in the region between 1976 and 2000. It was seen that the LULC changes were mostly occurred in coastal areas and in areas having low slope values.

Analyzing Land Use/Land Cover Changes Using Remote Sensing and GIS in Rize, North-East Turkey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Selçuk Reis

2008-10-01

Full Text Available Mapping land use/land cover (LULC changes at regional scales is essential for a wide range of applications, including landslide, erosion, land planning, global warming etc. LULC alterations (based especially on human activities, negatively effect the patterns of climate, the patterns of natural hazard and socio-economic dynamics in global and local scale. In this study, LULC changes are investigated by using of Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS in Rize, North-East Turkey. For this purpose, firstly supervised classification technique is applied to Landsat images acquired in 1976 and 2000. Image Classification of six reflective bands of two Landsat images is carried out by using maximum likelihood method with the aid of ground truth data obtained from aerial images dated 1973 and 2002. The second part focused on land use land cover changes by using change detection comparison (pixel by pixel. In third part of the study, the land cover changes are analyzed according to the topographic structure (slope and altitude by using GIS functions. The results indicate that severe land cover changes have occurred in agricultural (36.2% (especially in tea gardens, urban (117%, pasture (-72.8% and forestry (-12.8% areas has been experienced in the region between 1976 and 2000. It was seen that the LULC changes were mostly occurred in coastal areas and in areas having low slope values.

Monitoring Urban Land Cover/land Use Change in Algiers City Using Landsat Images (1987-2016)

Science.gov (United States)

Bouchachi, B.; Zhong, Y.

2017-09-01

Monitoring the Urban Land Cover/Land Use change detection is important as one of the main driving forces of environmental change because Urbanization is the biggest changes in form of Land, resulting in a decrease in cultivated areas. Using remote sensing ability to solve land resources problems. The purpose of this research is to map the urban areas at different times to monitor and predict possible urban changes, were studied the annual growth urban land during the last 29 years in Algiers City. Improving the productiveness of long-term training in land mapping, were have developed an approach by the following steps: 1) pre-processing for improvement of image characteristics; 2) extract training sample candidates based on the developed methods; and 3) Derive maps and analyzed of Algiers City on an annual basis from 1987 to 2016 using a Supervised Classifier Support Vector Machine (SVMs). Our result shows that the strategy of urban land followed in the region of Algiers City, developed areas mostly were extended to East, West, and South of Central Regions. The urban growth rate is linked with National Office of Statistics data. Future studies are required to understand the impact of urban rapid lands on social, economy and environmental sustainability, it will also close the gap in data of urbanism available, especially on the lack of reliable data, environmental and urban planning for each municipality in Algiers, develop experimental models to predict future land changes with statistically significant confidence.

Scenario-Led Habitat Modelling of Land Use Change Impacts on Key Species.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthew Geary

Full Text Available Accurate predictions of the impacts of future land use change on species of conservation concern can help to inform policy-makers and improve conservation measures. If predictions are spatially explicit, predicted consequences of likely land use changes could be accessible to land managers at a scale relevant to their working landscape. We introduce a method, based on open source software, which integrates habitat suitability modelling with scenario-building, and illustrate its use by investigating the effects of alternative land use change scenarios on landscape suitability for black grouse Tetrao tetrix. Expert opinion was used to construct five near-future (twenty years scenarios for the 800 km2 study site in upland Scotland. For each scenario, the cover of different land use types was altered by 5-30% from 20 random starting locations and changes in habitat suitability assessed by projecting a MaxEnt suitability model onto each simulated landscape. A scenario converting grazed land to moorland and open forestry was the most beneficial for black grouse, and 'increased grazing' (the opposite conversion the most detrimental. Positioning of new landscape blocks was shown to be important in some situations. Increasing the area of open-canopy forestry caused a proportional decrease in suitability, but suitability gains for the 'reduced grazing' scenario were nonlinear. 'Scenario-led' landscape simulation models can be applied in assessments of the impacts of land use change both on individual species and also on diversity and community measures, or ecosystem services. A next step would be to include landscape configuration more explicitly in the simulation models, both to make them more realistic, and to examine the effects of habitat placement more thoroughly. In this example, the recommended policy would be incentives on grazing reduction to benefit black grouse.

The role of human activity and land use change in atmospheric chemistry and air quality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Penner, J.E.

1992-07-01

In the this paper, I review the importance of a mineral of fossil fuel emissions atmospheric chemistry, air quality, and climate. I then review current estimates of the sources for each specie, deriving the fraction of each source that is due to specific land use practices or land cover categories. Understanding the current trends of those species with known increasing abundances and projecting increases into the future is possible if the estimated sources from human activity and land use change can be projected and if the known atmospheric sinks and the interactions in atmospheric chemistry and climate change are appropriately taken into account. Regional trends in the short-lived species can be projected as well, assuming the estimated sources and sinks are correct. However, significant uncertainties continue to surround the estimated budgets for most of these species. Uncertainties and the estimated ranges in different source strength estimates for each are also discussed

Land Use and Land Cover Changes under Climate Uncertainty: Modelling the Impacts on Hydropower Production in Western Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Salomon Obahoundje

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The Bui hydropower plant plays a vital role in the socio-economic development of Ghana. This paper attempt to explore the combined effects of climate-land use land cover change on power production using the (WEAP model: Water Evaluation and Planning system. The historical analysis of rainfall and stream flow variability showed that the annual coefficient of variation of rainfall and stream flow are, respectively, 8.6% and 60.85%. The stream flow varied greatly than the rainfall, due to land use land cover changes (LULC. In fact, the LULC analysis revealed important changes in vegetative areas and water bodies. The WEAP model evaluation showed that combined effects of LULC and climate change reduce water availability for all of demand sectors, including hydropower generation at the Bui hydropower plant. However, it was projected that Bui power production will increase by 40.7% and 24.93%, respectively, under wet and adaptation conditions, and decrease by 46% and 2.5%, respectively, under dry and current conditions. The wet condition is defined as an increase in rainfall by 14%, the dry condition as the decrease in rainfall by 15%; current account is business as usual, and the adaptation is as the efficient use of water for the period 2012–2040.

Effect of land use and land cover changes on carbon sequestration in vegetation and soils between 1956 and 2007 (southern Spain)

Science.gov (United States)

Muñoz-Rojas, M.; Jordán, A.; Zavala, L. M.; de la Rosa, D.; Abd-Elmabod, S. K.; Anaya-Romero, M.

2012-04-01

Land use has significantly changed during the last decades at global and local scale, while the importance of ecosystems as sources/sinks of C has been highlighted, emphasizing the global impact of land use changes. The aim of this research was to improve and test methodologies to assess land use and land cover change dynamics and temporal and spatial variability in C stored in soils and vegetation at a wide scale. A Mediterranean region (Andalusia, Southern Spain) was selected for this pilot study in the period 1956-2007. Land use changes were detected by comparison of data layers, and soil information was gathered from available spatial databases. Data from land use and land cover change were reclassified according to CORINE Land Cover legend, according to land cover flows reported in Europe. Carbon vegetation stocks for 1956 and 2007 were calculated by multiplying C density for each land cover class and area. Soil carbon stocks were determined for each combination of soil and land use type at different standard depths (0-25, 25-50 and 50-75 cm). Total current carbon stocks (2007) are 156.1 Tg in vegetation and 415 Tg in soils (in the first 75 cm). Southern Spain has supported intense land cover changes affecting more than one third of the study area, with significant consequences for C stocks. Vegetation carbon increased 17.24 Mt since 1956 after afforestation practices and intensification of agriculture. Soil C stock decreased mainly in Cambisols and Regosols (above 80%) after forest areas were transformed into agricultural areas. The methodologies and information generated in this project constitute a basis for modelling of C sequestration and analysis of potential scenarios, as a new component of MicroLEIS DSS. This study highlights the importance of land cover changes for C sequestration in Mediterranean areas, highlighting possible trends for management policies in Europe in order to mitigate climate change.

Land Use, Climate Change and Ecosystem Services

OpenAIRE

Attavanich, Witsanu; Rashford, Benjamin S.; Adams, Richard M.; McCarl, Bruce A.

2011-01-01

The combination of shifts in crop production and a reduction in wetland ecosystems associated with climate change are forecast to reduce native grasslands and associated obligate species. Most estimates of climate change impacts to wildlife, however, do not account for how humans are likely to alter land use in response to climate changes. We examine the joint effect of climate change and the resulting land use response of farmers on waterfowl production in the Prairie Pothole Region of Nor...

The causes of land-use and land-cover change : moving beyond the myths

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lambin, E.F.; Turner, B.L.; Geist, H.J.; Agbola, S.B.; Angelsen, A.; Bruce, J.W.; Coomes, O.T.; Dirzo, R.; Fischer, G.; Folke, C.; George, P.S.; Homewood, K.; Imbernon, J.; Leemans, R.; Xiubin Li,; Moran, E.F.; Mortimore, M.; Ramakrishnan, P.S.; Richards, J.F.; Skanes, H.; Steffen, W.; Stone, G.D.; Svedin, U.; Veldkamp, A.; Vogel, C.; Jianchu Xu,

2001-01-01

Common understanding of the causes of land-use and land-cover change is dominated by simplifications which, in turn, underlie many environment-development policies. This article tracks some of the major myths on driving forces of land-cover change and proposes alternative pathways of change that are

Land use/land cover change geo-informative Tupu of Nujiang River in Northwest Yunnan Province

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jin-liang; Yang, Yue-yuan; Huang, You-ju; Fu, Lei; Rao, Qing

2008-10-01

Land Use/Land Cover Change (LUCC) is the core components of global change researches. It is significant for understanding regional ecological environment and LUCC mechanism of large scale to develop the study of LUCC of regional level. Nujiang River is the upper reaches of a big river in the South Asia--Salween River. Nujiang River is a typical mountainous river which is 3200 kilometer long and its basin area is 32.5 × 105 square kilometer. It locates in the core of "Three Parallel Rivers" World Natural Heritage. It is one of international biodiversity conservation center of the world, the ecological fragile zone and key ecological construction area, as well as a remote undeveloped area with high diversity ethnic. With the rapidly development of society and economy, the land use and land cover changed in a great degree. The function of ecosystem has being degraded in some areas which will not only impact on the ecological construction of local area, but also on the ecological safety of lower reaches -- Salween River. Therefore it is necessary to carry out the research of LUCC of Nujiang River. Based on the theory and methods of geo-information Tupu, the "Spatial Pattern" and "Change Process" of land use of middle reach in Nujiang River from 1974 to 2004 had been studied in quantification and integration, so as to provide a case study in local area and mesoscale in time. Supported by the remote sensing and GIS technology, LUCC Tupu of 1974-2004 had been built and the characteristics of LUCC have been analyzed quantificationally. The results showed that the built-up land (Included in this category are cities, towns, villages, strip developments along highways, transportation, power, and communications facilities, and areas such as those occupied by mills, shopping centers, industrial and commercial complexes, and institutions that may, in some instances, be isolated from urban areas), agriculture land, shrubbery land, meadow & grassland, difficultly/unused land

Integrated modelling of anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change on the global scale

Science.gov (United States)

Schaldach, R.; Koch, J.; Alcamo, J.

2009-04-01

In many cases land-use activities go hand in hand with substantial modifications of the physical and biological cover of the Earth's surface, resulting in direct effects on energy and matter fluxes between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. For instance, the conversion of forest to cropland is changing climate relevant surface parameters (e.g. albedo) as well as evapotranspiration processes and carbon flows. In turn, human land-use decisions are also influenced by environmental processes. Changing temperature and precipitation patterns for example are important determinants for location and intensity of agriculture. Due to these close linkages, processes of land-use and related land-cover change should be considered as important components in the construction of Earth System models. A major challenge in modelling land-use change on the global scale is the integration of socio-economic aspects and human decision making with environmental processes. One of the few global approaches that integrates functional components to represent both anthropogenic and environmental aspects of land-use change, is the LandSHIFT model. It simulates the spatial and temporal dynamics of the human land-use activities settlement, cultivation of food crops and grazing management, which compete for the available land resources. The rational of the model is to regionalize the demands for area intensive commodities (e.g. crop production) and services (e.g. space for housing) from the country-level to a global grid with the spatial resolution of 5 arc-minutes. The modelled land-use decisions within the agricultural sector are influenced by changing climate and the resulting effects on biomass productivity. Currently, this causal chain is modelled by integrating results from the process-based vegetation model LPJmL model for changing crop yields and net primary productivity of grazing land. Model output of LandSHIFT is a time series of grid maps with land-use/land-cover information

An integrated approach to modeling changes in land use, land cover, and disturbance and their impact on ecosystem carbon dynamics: a case study in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Benjamin M. Sleeter

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Increased land-use intensity (e.g. clearing of forests for cultivation, urbanization, often results in the loss of ecosystem carbon storage, while changes in productivity resulting from climate change may either help offset or exacerbate losses. However, there are large uncertainties in how land and climate systems will evolve and interact to shape future ecosystem carbon dynamics. To address this we developed the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS to track changes in land use, land cover, land management, and disturbance, and their impact on ecosystem carbon storage and flux within a scenario-based framework. We have combined a state-and-transition simulation model (STSM of land change with a stock and flow model of carbon dynamics. Land-change projections downscaled from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES were used to drive changes within the STSM, while the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS ecosystem model was used to derive input parameters for the carbon stock and flow model. The model was applied to the Sierra Nevada Mountains ecoregion in California, USA, a region prone to large wildfires and a forestry sector projected to intensify over the next century. Three scenario simulations were conducted, including a calibration scenario, a climate-change scenario, and an integrated climate- and land-change scenario. Based on results from the calibration scenario, the LUCAS age-structured carbon accounting model was able to accurately reproduce results obtained from the process-based biogeochemical model. Under the climate-only scenario, the ecoregion was projected to be a reliable net sink of carbon, however, when land use and disturbance were introduced, the ecoregion switched to become a net source. This research demonstrates how an integrated approach to carbon accounting can be used to evaluate various drivers of ecosystem carbon change in a robust, yet transparent

An integrated approach to modeling changes in land use, land cover, and disturbance and their impact on ecosystem carbon dynamics: a case study in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California

Science.gov (United States)

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Liu, Jinxun; Daniel, Colin; Frid, Leonardo; Zhu, Zhiliang

2015-01-01

Increased land-use intensity (e.g. clearing of forests for cultivation, urbanization), often results in the loss of ecosystem carbon storage, while changes in productivity resulting from climate change may either help offset or exacerbate losses. However, there are large uncertainties in how land and climate systems will evolve and interact to shape future ecosystem carbon dynamics. To address this we developed the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) to track changes in land use, land cover, land management, and disturbance, and their impact on ecosystem carbon storage and flux within a scenario-based framework. We have combined a state-and-transition simulation model (STSM) of land change with a stock and flow model of carbon dynamics. Land-change projections downscaled from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) were used to drive changes within the STSM, while the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) ecosystem model was used to derive input parameters for the carbon stock and flow model. The model was applied to the Sierra Nevada Mountains ecoregion in California, USA, a region prone to large wildfires and a forestry sector projected to intensify over the next century. Three scenario simulations were conducted, including a calibration scenario, a climate-change scenario, and an integrated climate- and land-change scenario. Based on results from the calibration scenario, the LUCAS age-structured carbon accounting model was able to accurately reproduce results obtained from the process-based biogeochemical model. Under the climate-only scenario, the ecoregion was projected to be a reliable net sink of carbon, however, when land use and disturbance were introduced, the ecoregion switched to become a net source. This research demonstrates how an integrated approach to carbon accounting can be used to evaluate various drivers of ecosystem carbon change in a robust, yet transparent modeling

Synergy between land use and climate change increases future risk in Amazon forests

OpenAIRE

Le Page, Yannick; Morton, Douglas; Hartin, Corinne; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Pereira, José Miguel Cardoso; Hurtt, George; Asrar, Ghassem

2017-01-01

Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest’s future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climatedriven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and ...

The impact of land use/land cover changes on land degradation dynamics: a Mediterranean case study.

Science.gov (United States)

Bajocco, S; De Angelis, A; Perini, L; Ferrara, A; Salvati, L

2012-05-01

In the last decades, due to climate changes, soil deterioration, and Land Use/Land Cover Changes (LULCCs), land degradation risk has become one of the most important ecological issues at the global level. Land degradation involves two interlocking systems: the natural ecosystem and the socio-economic system. The complexity of land degradation processes should be addressed using a multidisciplinary approach. Therefore, the aim of this work is to assess diachronically land degradation dynamics under changing land covers. This paper analyzes LULCCs and the parallel increase in the level of land sensitivity to degradation along the coastal belt of Sardinia (Italy), a typical Mediterranean region where human pressure affects the landscape characteristics through fires, intensive agricultural practices, land abandonment, urban sprawl, and tourism concentration. Results reveal that two factors mainly affect the level of land sensitivity to degradation in the study area: (i) land abandonment and (ii) unsustainable use of rural and peri-urban areas. Taken together, these factors represent the primary cause of the LULCCs observed in coastal Sardinia. By linking the structural features of the Mediterranean landscape with its functional land degradation dynamics over time, these results contribute to orienting policies for sustainable land management in Mediterranean coastal areas.

The Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Changes on Land Degradation Dynamics: A Mediterranean Case Study

Science.gov (United States)

Bajocco, S.; De Angelis, A.; Perini, L.; Ferrara, A.; Salvati, L.

2012-05-01

In the last decades, due to climate changes, soil deterioration, and Land Use/Land Cover Changes (LULCCs), land degradation risk has become one of the most important ecological issues at the global level. Land degradation involves two interlocking systems: the natural ecosystem and the socio-economic system. The complexity of land degradation processes should be addressed using a multidisciplinary approach. Therefore, the aim of this work is to assess diachronically land degradation dynamics under changing land covers. This paper analyzes LULCCs and the parallel increase in the level of land sensitivity to degradation along the coastal belt of Sardinia (Italy), a typical Mediterranean region where human pressure affects the landscape characteristics through fires, intensive agricultural practices, land abandonment, urban sprawl, and tourism concentration. Results reveal that two factors mainly affect the level of land sensitivity to degradation in the study area: (i) land abandonment and (ii) unsustainable use of rural and peri-urban areas. Taken together, these factors represent the primary cause of the LULCCs observed in coastal Sardinia. By linking the structural features of the Mediterranean landscape with its functional land degradation dynamics over time, these results contribute to orienting policies for sustainable land management in Mediterranean coastal areas.

Projecting the land cover change and its environmental impacts in the Cedar River Basin in the Midwestern United States

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Yiping; Liu, Shuguang; Sohl, Terry L.; Young, Claudia

2013-01-01

The physical surface of the Earth is in constant change due to climate forcing and human activities. In the Midwestern United States, urban area, farmland, and dedicated energy crop (e.g., switchgrass) cultivation are predicted to expand in the coming decades, which will lead to changes in hydrological processes. This study is designed to (1) project the land use and land cover (LULC) by mid-century using the FORecasting SCEnarios of future land-use (FORE-SCE) model under the A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario (future condition) and (2) assess its potential impacts on the water cycle and water quality against the 2001 baseline condition in the Cedar River Basin using the physically based soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). We compared the baseline LULC (National Land Cover data 2001) and 2050 projection, indicating substantial expansions of urban area and pastureland (including the cultivation of bioenergy crops) and a decrease in rangeland. We then used the above two LULC maps as the input data to drive the SWAT model, keeping other input data (e.g., climate) unchanged to isolate the LULC change impacts. The modeling results indicate that quick-response surface runoff would increase significantly (about 10.5%) due to the projected urban expansion (i.e., increase in impervious areas), and the baseflow would decrease substantially (about 7.3%) because of the reduced infiltration. Although the net effect may cause an increase in water yield, the increased variability may impede its use for public supply. Additionally, the cultivation of bioenergy crops such as switchgrass in the newly added pasture lands may further reduce the soil water content and lead to an increase in nitrogen loading (about 2.5% increase) due to intensified fertilizer application. These study results will be informative to decision makers for sustainable water resource management when facing LULC change and an increasing demand for biofuel production in this area.

Projecting the land cover change and its environmental impacts in the Cedar River Basin in the Midwestern United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu Yiping; Liu Shuguang; Sohl, Terry L; Young, Claudia J

2013-01-01

The physical surface of the Earth is in constant change due to climate forcing and human activities. In the Midwestern United States, urban area, farmland, and dedicated energy crop (e.g., switchgrass) cultivation are predicted to expand in the coming decades, which will lead to changes in hydrological processes. This study is designed to (1) project the land use and land cover (LULC) by mid-century using the FORecasting SCEnarios of future land-use (FORE-SCE) model under the A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario (future condition) and (2) assess its potential impacts on the water cycle and water quality against the 2001 baseline condition in the Cedar River Basin using the physically based soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). We compared the baseline LULC (National Land Cover data 2001) and 2050 projection, indicating substantial expansions of urban area and pastureland (including the cultivation of bioenergy crops) and a decrease in rangeland. We then used the above two LULC maps as the input data to drive the SWAT model, keeping other input data (e.g., climate) unchanged to isolate the LULC change impacts. The modeling results indicate that quick-response surface runoff would increase significantly (about 10.5%) due to the projected urban expansion (i.e., increase in impervious areas), and the baseflow would decrease substantially (about 7.3%) because of the reduced infiltration. Although the net effect may cause an increase in water yield, the increased variability may impede its use for public supply. Additionally, the cultivation of bioenergy crops such as switchgrass in the newly added pasture lands may further reduce the soil water content and lead to an increase in nitrogen loading (about 2.5% increase) due to intensified fertilizer application. These study results will be informative to decision makers for sustainable water resource management when facing LULC change and an increasing demand for biofuel production in this area. (letter)

Exploring eco-hydrological consequences of the Amazonian ecosystems under climate and land-use changes in the 21st century

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, K.; Castanho, A. D.; Moghim, S.; Bras, R. L.; Coe, M. T.; Costa, M. H.; Levine, N. M.; Longo, M.; McKnight, S.; Wang, J.; Moorcroft, P. R.

2012-12-01

Deforestation and drought have imposed regional-scale perturbations onto Amazonian ecosystems and are predicted to cause larger negative impacts on the Amazonian ecosystems and associated regional carbon dynamics in the 21st century. However, global climate models (GCMs) vary greatly in their projections of future climate change in Amazonia, giving rise to uncertainty in the expected fate of the Amazon over the coming century. In this study, we explore the possible eco-hydrological consequences of the Amazonian ecosystems under projected climate and land-use changes in the 21st century using two state-of-the-art terrestrial ecosystem models—Ecosystem Demography Model 2.1(ED2.1) and Integrated Biosphere Simulator model (IBIS)—driven by three representative, bias-corrected climate projections from three IPCC GCMs (NCARPCM1, NCARCCSM3 and HadCM3), coupled with two land-use change scenarios (a business-as-usual and a strict governance scenario). We also analyze the relative roles of climate change, CO2 fertilization, land-use change and fire in driving the projected composition and structure of the Amazonian ecosystems. Our results show that CO2 fertilization enhances vegetation productivity and above-ground biomass (AGB) in the region, while land-use change and fire cause AGB loss and the replacement of forests by the savanna-like vegetation. The impacts of climate change depend strongly on the direction and severity of projected precipitation changes in the region. In particular, when intensified water stress is superimposed on unregulated deforestation, both ecosystem models predict large-scale dieback of Amazonian rainforests.

Assessing the Impact of Land Use and Land Cover Change on Global Water Resources

Science.gov (United States)

Batra, N.; Yang, Y. E.; Choi, H. I.; Islam, A.; Charlotte, D. F.; Cai, X.; Kumar, P.

2007-12-01

Land use and land cover changes (LULCC) significantly modify the hydrological regime of the watersheds, affecting water resources and environment from regional to global scale. This study seeks to advance and integrate water and energy cycle observation, scientific understanding, and human impacts to assess future water availability. To achieve the research objective, we integrate and interpret past and current space based and in situ observations into a global hydrologic model (GHM). GHM is developed with enhanced spatial and temporal resolution, physical complexity, hydrologic theory and processes to quantify the impact of LULCC on physical variables: surface runoff, subsurface flow, groundwater, infiltration, ET, soil moisture, etc. Coupled with the common land model (CLM), a 3-dimensional volume averaged soil-moisture transport (VAST) model is expanded to incorporate the lateral flow and subgrid heterogeneity. The model consists of 11 soil-hydrology layers to predict lateral as well as vertical moisture flux transport based on Richard's equations. The primary surface boundary conditions (SBCs) include surface elevation and its derivatives, land cover category, sand and clay fraction profiles, bedrock depth and fractional vegetation cover. A consistent global GIS-based dataset is constructed for the SBCs of the model from existing observational datasets comprising of various resolutions, map projections and data formats. Global ECMWF data at 6-hour time steps for the period 1971 through 2000 is processed to get the forcing data which includes incoming longwave and shortwave radiation, precipitation, air temperature, pressure, wind components, boundary layer height and specific humidity. Land use land cover data, generated using IPCC scenarios for every 10 years from 2000 to 2100 is used for future assessment on water resources. Alterations due to LULCC on surface water balance components: ET, groundwater recharge and runoff are then addressed in the study. Land

Response of ecosystem services to land use change in Xiamen Island

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, L.

2009-12-01

: Land use change was a major factor affecting ecosystem services. Taken Xiamen Island as an example, by integrating remote sensing data to examine land use patterns from 1950 to 2007, the regional ecosystem services of Xiamen Island were evaluated based on two revised methods aiming to identify the stress effects and mechanisms of land use change on ecosystem services. The results showed that during 1950~2007, in general, Xiamen Island’s land use intensity had been annually rising. The trends of Xiamen Island’s ecosystem services value acquired by two methods were both consistent with decreasing along with the growth of land use intensity. Before 1987, the ecosystem service value of Xiamen Island had increased by 1.07 million yuan, due to the expanding of 12.87 km2 water and wetland. After the establishment of Xiamen special economic zone in 1984, the rapid urbanization has resulted a sharp decline in ecosystem service value, the average annual loss reached by 619,773 yuan after 1987. As the utilization of land reaching saturation and the launching of ecological projects, such as the Xiamen Eastern Sea Comprehensive Improvement Project, it could be predicted that the decreasing trend of ecosystem services value was going to be slowed down in the near future. The first revised method referencing four eco-system services solved the problem of overestimated value caused by the second revised method based on provisioning service alone. By applying the ESV total correction method, the problem of over counting service value by correction made from a single aspect could be solved.Equivalent value per unit area of ecosystem services in China 2007 and revised value by second method Note: The modified coefficient of crop, orchard & forest, wetland and inland water provisioning ESV revised by the second method is 2.858, 2.405, 1.523, 1.843 respectively; for regulating, ultural and supporting ESV, the coefficient is 2.339, 15.339, 2.339 respectively.

Land use/land cover changes around Rameshwaram Island, east coast of India

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Gowthaman, R.; Dwarakish, G.S.; Sanilkumar, V.

Land-use/land cover changes are studied using the Indian Remote Sensing satellite (IRS-1C, IRS-6) Linear Image Self-scan Sensor (LISS) III data of 1998 and 2010 Coastal land use categories such as sand, vegetation, coral reef and water have been...

Climate Extremes and Land-Use Change: Effects on Ecosystem Processes and Services

Science.gov (United States)

Bahn, Michael; Erb, Karlheinz; Hasibeder, Roland; Mayr, Stefan; Niedertscheider, Maria; Oberhuber, Walter; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Tasser, Erich; Viovy, Nicolas; Wieser, Gerhard

2016-04-01

Extreme climatic events, in particular droughts and heatwaves, have significant impacts on ecosystem carbon and water cycles and a range of related ecosystem services. It is expected that in the coming decades the return intervals and severities of extreme droughts will increase substantially and may result in the passing of thresholds of ecosystem functioning, potentially causing legacy effects, which are so far poorly understood. Observational evidence suggests that different land cover types (forest, grassland) are differently influenced by extreme drought, but there is a lack of knowledge whether and how future, increasingly severe climate extremes will affect their concurrent and lagged responses, as well as land-use decisions determining future shifts in land cover. The ClimLUC project aims to understand how extreme summer drought affects carbon and water dynamics of mountain ecosystems under different land uses, and to analyse implications for ecosystem service provisioning. Overall, we hypothesize that land-use change alters the effects of extreme summer drought on ecosystem processes and the related services, grassland responding more rapidly and strongly but being more resilient to extreme drought than forest. To address the aims and hypotheses, we will 1) test experimentally how (a) a managed, (b) an abandoned mountain grassland and (c) an adjacent subalpine forest respond to a progressive extreme drought and will analyse threshold responses of carbon and water dynamics and their implications for ecosystem services (timber and fodder production, carbon sequestration, water provisioning); 2) quantify carry-over effects of the extreme event on ecosystem processes and services; 3) project and attribute future carbon and water cycle responses to extreme drought and related socio-economic changes, based on a process-based dynamic general vegetation model; 4) analyse the interrelation between land-use changes and the occurrence and severity of past and future

Implications of climate and land use change: Chapter 4

Science.gov (United States)

Hall, Jefferson S.; Murgueitio, Enrique; Calle, Zoraida; Raudsepp-Hearne, Ciara; Stallard, Robert F.; Balvanera, Patricia; Hall, Jefferson S.; Kirn, Vanessa; Yanguas-Fernandez, Estrella

2015-01-01

This chapter relates ecosystem services to climate change and land use. The bulk of the chapter focuses on ecosystem services and steepland land use in the humid Neotropics – what is lost with land-cover changed, and what is gained with various types of restoration that are sustainable given private ownership. Many case studies are presented later in the white paper. The USGS contribution relates to climate change and the role of extreme weather events in land-use planning.

The interplay of climate and land use change affects the distribution of EU bumblebees.

Science.gov (United States)

Marshall, Leon; Biesmeijer, Jacobus C; Rasmont, Pierre; Vereecken, Nicolas J; Dvorak, Libor; Fitzpatrick, Una; Francis, Frédéric; Neumayer, Johann; Ødegaard, Frode; Paukkunen, Juho P T; Pawlikowski, Tadeusz; Reemer, Menno; Roberts, Stuart P M; Straka, Jakub; Vray, Sarah; Dendoncker, Nicolas

2018-01-01

Bumblebees in Europe have been in steady decline since the 1900s. This decline is expected to continue with climate change as the main driver. However, at the local scale, land use and land cover (LULC) change strongly affects the occurrence of bumblebees. At present, LULC change is rarely included in models of future distributions of species. This study's objective is to compare the roles of dynamic LULC change and climate change on the projected distribution patterns of 48 European bumblebee species for three change scenarios until 2100 at the scales of Europe, and Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg (BENELUX). We compared three types of models: (1) only climate covariates, (2) climate and static LULC covariates and (3) climate and dynamic LULC covariates. The climate and LULC change scenarios used in the models include, extreme growth applied strategy (GRAS), business as might be usual and sustainable European development goals. We analysed model performance, range gain/loss and the shift in range limits for all bumblebees. Overall, model performance improved with the introduction of LULC covariates. Dynamic models projected less range loss and gain than climate-only projections, and greater range loss and gain than static models. Overall, there is considerable variation in species responses and effects were most pronounced at the BENELUX scale. The majority of species were predicted to lose considerable range, particularly under the extreme growth scenario (GRAS; overall mean: 64% ± 34). Model simulations project a number of local extinctions and considerable range loss at the BENELUX scale (overall mean: 56% ± 39). Therefore, we recommend species-specific modelling to understand how LULC and climate interact in future modelling. The efficacy of dynamic LULC change should improve with higher thematic and spatial resolution. Nevertheless, current broad scale representations of change in major land use classes impact modelled future distribution patterns. �

Land-use change trajectories up to 2050. Insights from a global agro-economic model comparison

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schmitz, Christoph [Potsdam Inst. Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegrafenberg (Germany); van Meijl, Hans [Wageningen Univ. and Research Center, Hague (Netherlands); Kyle, G. Page [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Nelson, Gerald C. [International Food Policy Research Inst. (IFPRI), Washington, DC (United States); Univ. of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL (United States); Fujimori, Shinichiro [National Inst. for Environmental Studies (NIES), Ibaraki (Japan); Gurgel, Angelo [Sao Paulo School of Economics (EESP-FGV) (Brazil); Havlik, Petr [International Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria); Heyhoe, Edwina [Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), Canberra (Australia); Mason d' Croz, Daniel [International Food Policy Research Inst. (IFPRI), Washington, DC (United States); Popp, Alexander [Potsdam Inst. Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegrafenberg (Germany); Sands, Ronald [U.S. Dept. of Agriculture (USDA), Washington, DC (United States); Tabeau, Andrzej [Wageningen Univ. and Research Center, Hague (Netherlands); van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique [Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Rome (Italy); von Lampe, Martin [Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Paris (France); Wise, Marshall A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Blanc, Elodie [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States); Hasegawa, Tomoko [National Inst. for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba (Japan); Kavallari, Aikaterini [Wageningen Univ. and Research Center, Hague (Netherlands); Valin, Hugo [International Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria)

2013-12-10

Changes in agricultural land use have important implications for environmental services. Previous studies of agricultural land-use futures have been published indicating large uncertainty due to different model assumptions and methodologies. In this article we present a first comprehensive comparison of global agro-economic models that have harmonized drivers of population, GDP, and biophysical yields. The comparison allows us to ask two research questions: (1) How much cropland will be used under different socioeconomic and climate change scenarios? (2) How can differences in model results be explained? The comparison includes four partial and six general equilibrium models that differ in how they model land supply and amount of potentially available land. We analyze results of two different socioeconomic scenarios and three climate scenarios (one with constant climate). Most models (7 out of 10) project an increase of cropland of 10–25% by 2050 compared to 2005 (under constant climate), but one model projects a decrease. Pasture land expands in some models, which increase the treat on natural vegetation further. Across all models most of the cropland expansion takes place in South America and sub-Saharan Africa. In general, the strongest differences in model results are related to differences in the costs of land expansion, the endogenous productivity responses, and the assumptions about potential cropland.

Land use/Land Cover Changes and Causes of Deforestation in the ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The objective of this paper is to provide the non-existent data on land use/land cover changes in the Wilberforce Island for the purposes of determining the causes of deforestation and changes in the vegetation cover for a 13 – year period. Accordingly, 125 questionnaires were administered in five communities to determine ...

Using Land Surface Phenology to Detect Land Use Change in the Northern Great Plains

Science.gov (United States)

Nguyen, L. H.; Henebry, G. M.

2017-12-01

The Northern Great Plains of the US have been undergoing many types of land cover / land use change over the past two decades, including expansion of irrigation, conversion of grassland to cropland, biofuels production, urbanization, and fossil fuel mining. Much of the literature on these changes has relied on post-classification change detection based on a limited number of observations per year. Here we demonstrate an approach to characterize land dynamics through land surface phenology (LSP) by synergistic use of image time series at two scales. Our study areas include regions of interest (ROIs) across the Northern Great Plains located within Landsat path overlap zones to boost the number of valid observations (free of clouds or snow) each year. We first compute accumulated growing degree-days (AGDD) from MODIS 8-day composites of land surface temperature (MOD11A2 and MYD11A2). Using Landsat Collection 1 surface reflectance-derived vegetation indices (NDVI, EVI), we then fit at each pixel a downward convex quadratic model linking the vegetation index to each year's progression of AGDD. This quadratic equation exhibits linearity in a mathematical sense; thus, the fitted models can be linearly mixed and unmixed using a set of LSP endmembers (defined by the fitted parameter coefficients of the quadratic model) that represent "pure" land cover types with distinct seasonal patterns found within the region, such as winter wheat, spring wheat, maize, soybean, sunflower, hay/pasture/grassland, developed/built-up, among others. Information about land cover corresponding to each endmember are provided by the NLCD (National Land Cover Dataset) and CDL (Cropland Data Layer). We use linear unmixing to estimate the likely proportion of each LSP endmember within particular areas stratified by latitude. By tracking the proportions over the 2001-2011 period, we can quantify various types of land transitions in the Northern Great Plains.

Land cover/land use change in semi-arid Inner Mongolia: 1992-2004

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

John, Ranjeet; Chen Jiquan; Lu Nan; Wilske, Burkhard, E-mail: ranjeet.john@utoledo.ed [Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Toledo, Toledo, OH 43606 (United States)

2009-10-15

The semi-arid grasslands in Inner Mongolia (IM) are under increasing stress owing to climate change and rapid socio-economic development in the recent past. We investigated changes in land cover/land use and landscape structure between 1992 and 2004 through the analysis of AVHRR and MODIS derived land cover data. The scale of analysis included the regional level (i.e. the whole of IM) as well as the level of the dominant biomes (i.e. the grassland and desert). We quantified proportional change, rate of change and the changes in class-level landscape metrics using the landscape structure analysis program FRAGSTATS. The dominant land cover types, grassland and barren, 0.47 and 0.27 million km{sup 2}, respectively, have increased proportionally. Cropland and urban land use also increased to 0.15 million km{sup 2} and 2197 km{sup 2}, respectively. However, the results further indicated increases in both the homogeneity and fragmentation of the landscape. Increasing homogeneity was mainly related to the reduction in minority cover types such as savanna, forests and permanent wetlands and increasing cohesion, aggregation index and clumpy indices. Conversely, increased fragmentation of the landscape was based on the increase in patch density and the interspersion/juxtaposition index (IJI). It is important to note the socio-economic growth in this fragile ecosystem, manifested by an increasing proportion of agricultural and urban land use not just at the regional level but also at the biome level in the context of regional climate change and increasing water stress.

Land cover/land use change in semi-arid Inner Mongolia: 1992-2004

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

John, Ranjeet; Chen Jiquan; Lu Nan; Wilske, Burkhard

2009-01-01

The semi-arid grasslands in Inner Mongolia (IM) are under increasing stress owing to climate change and rapid socio-economic development in the recent past. We investigated changes in land cover/land use and landscape structure between 1992 and 2004 through the analysis of AVHRR and MODIS derived land cover data. The scale of analysis included the regional level (i.e. the whole of IM) as well as the level of the dominant biomes (i.e. the grassland and desert). We quantified proportional change, rate of change and the changes in class-level landscape metrics using the landscape structure analysis program FRAGSTATS. The dominant land cover types, grassland and barren, 0.47 and 0.27 million km 2 , respectively, have increased proportionally. Cropland and urban land use also increased to 0.15 million km 2 and 2197 km 2 , respectively. However, the results further indicated increases in both the homogeneity and fragmentation of the landscape. Increasing homogeneity was mainly related to the reduction in minority cover types such as savanna, forests and permanent wetlands and increasing cohesion, aggregation index and clumpy indices. Conversely, increased fragmentation of the landscape was based on the increase in patch density and the interspersion/juxtaposition index (IJI). It is important to note the socio-economic growth in this fragile ecosystem, manifested by an increasing proportion of agricultural and urban land use not just at the regional level but also at the biome level in the context of regional climate change and increasing water stress.

Integrated modeling of land-use change: the role of coupling, interactions and feedbacks between the human and Earth systems

Science.gov (United States)

Monier, E.; Kicklighter, D. W.; Ejaz, Q.; Winchester, N.; Paltsev, S.; Reilly, J. M.

2016-12-01

Land-use change integrates a large number of components of the human and Earth systems, including climate, energy, water, and land. These complex coupling elements, interactions and feedbacks take place on a variety of space and time scales, thus increasing the complexity of land-use change modeling frameworks. In this study, we aim to identify which coupling elements, interactions and feedbacks are important for modeling land-use change, both at the global and regional level. First, we review the existing land-use change modeling framework used to develop land-use change projections for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. In such framework, land-use change is simulated by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and mainly influenced by economic, energy, demographic and policy drivers. IAMs focus on representing the demand for agriculture and forestry goods (crops for food and bioenergy, forest products for construction and bioenergy), the interactions with other sectors of the economy and trade between various regions of the world. Then, we investigate how important various coupling elements and feedbacks with the Earth system are for projections of land-use change at the global and regional level. We focus on the following: i) the climate impacts on land productivity and greenhouse gas emissions, which requires climate change information and coupling to a terrestrial ecosystem model/crop model; ii) the climate and economic impacts on irrigation availability, which requires coupling the LUC modeling framework to a water resources management model and disaggregating rainfed and irrigated croplands; iii) the feedback of land-use change on the global and regional climate system through land-use change emissions and changes in the surface albedo and hydrology, which requires coupling to an Earth system model. Finally, we conclude our study by highlighting the current lack of clarity in how various components of the human and Earth systems are

Hydrological Responses of Climate and Land Use/Cover Changes in Tao'er River Basin Based on the SWAT Model

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, J.; Kou, L.

2015-12-01

Abstract: The changes of both climate and land use/cover have some impact on the water resources. For Tao'er River Basin, these changes have a direct impact on the land use pattern adjustment, wetland protection, connection project between rivers and reservoirs, local social and economic development, etc. Therefore, studying the impact of climate and land use/cover changes is of great practical significance. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used as the research method. With historical actual measured runoff data and the yearly land use classification caught by satellite remote sensing maps, analyze the impact of climate change on the runoff of Tao'er River. And according to the land use/cover classification of 1990, 2000 and 2010, analyze the land use/cover change in the recent 30 years, the impact of the land use/cover change on the river runoff and the contribution coefficient of farmland, woodland, grassland and other major land-use types to the runoff. These studies can provide some references to the rational allocation of water resource and adjustment of land use structure in this area.

Land use and land cover change in the Western Cape Province: quantification of changes & understanding of driving factors

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Tizora, P

2016-07-01

Full Text Available changes in land use and land cover (LULC) and incited issues such as urban sprawl, marginalization of the poor, limited public access to resources, land degradation and climate change. This paper seeks to understand the most significant drivers of LULC...

Downscaling global land cover projections from an integrated assessment model for use in regional analyses: results and evaluation for the US from 2005 to 2095

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

West, Tristram O; Le Page, Yannick; Wolf, Julie; Thomson, Allison M; Huang, Maoyi

2014-01-01

Projections of land cover change generated from integrated assessment models (IAM) and other economic-based models can be applied for analyses of environmental impacts at sub-regional and landscape scales. For those IAM and economic models that project land cover change at the continental or regional scale, these projections must be downscaled and spatially distributed prior to use in climate or ecosystem models. Downscaling efforts to date have been conducted at the national extent with relatively high spatial resolution (30 m) and at the global extent with relatively coarse spatial resolution (0.5°). We revised existing methods to downscale global land cover change projections for the US to 0.05° resolution using MODIS land cover data as the initial proxy for land class distribution. Land cover change realizations generated here represent a reference scenario and two emissions mitigation pathways (MPs) generated by the global change assessment model (GCAM). Future gridded land cover realizations are constructed for each MODIS plant functional type (PFT) from 2005 to 2095, commensurate with the community land model PFT land classes, and archived for public use. The GCAM land cover realizations provide spatially explicit estimates of potential shifts in croplands, grasslands, shrublands, and forest lands. Downscaling of the MPs indicate a net replacement of grassland by cropland in the western US and by forest in the eastern US. An evaluation of the downscaling method indicates that it is able to reproduce recent changes in cropland and grassland distributions in respective areas in the US, suggesting it could provide relevant insights into the potential impacts of socio-economic and environmental drivers on future changes in land cover. (letters)

Quantitative analysis of agricultural land use change in China

Science.gov (United States)

Chou, Jieming; Dong, Wenjie; Wang, Shuyu; Fu, Yuqing

This article reviews the potential impacts of climate change on land use change in China. Crop sown area is used as index to quantitatively analyze the temporal-spatial changes and the utilization of the agricultural land. A new concept is defined as potential multiple cropping index to reflect the potential sowing ability. The impacting mechanism, land use status and its surplus capacity are investigated as well. The main conclusions are as following; During 1949-2010, the agricultural land was the greatest in amount in the middle of China, followed by that in the country's eastern and western regions. The most rapid increase and decrease of agricultural land were observed in Xinjiang and North China respectively, Northwest China and South China is also changed rapid. The variation trend before 1980 differed significantly from that after 1980. Agricultural land was affected by both natural and social factors, such as regional climate and environmental changes, population growth, economic development, and implementation of policies. In this paper, the effects of temperature and urbanization on the coverage of agriculture land are evaluated, and the results show that the urbanization can greatly affects the amount of agriculture land in South China, Northeast China, Xinjiang and Southwest China. From 1980 to 2009, the extent of agricultural land use had increased as the surplus capacity had decreased. Still, large remaining potential space is available, but the future utilization of agricultural land should be carried out with scientific planning and management for the sustainable development.

The impact of Future Land Use and Land Cover Changes on Atmospheric Chemistry-Climate Interactions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ganzeveld, L.N.; Bouwman, L.

2010-01-01

To demonstrate potential future consequences of land cover and land use changes beyond those for physical climate and the carbon cycle, we present an analysis of large-scale impacts of land cover and land use changes on atmospheric chemistry using the chemistry-climate model EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy

The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) contribution to CMIP6: rationale and experimental design

Science.gov (United States)

Lawrence, David M.; Hurtt, George C.; Arneth, Almut; Brovkin, Victor; Calvin, Kate V.; Jones, Andrew D.; Jones, Chris D.; Lawrence, Peter J.; de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie; Pongratz, Julia; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Shevliakova, Elena

2016-09-01

Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the Earth's surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to expand and intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) aims to further advance understanding of the impacts of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) on climate, specifically addressing the following questions. (1) What are the effects of LULCC on climate and biogeochemical cycling (past-future)? (2) What are the impacts of land management on surface fluxes of carbon, water, and energy, and are there regional land-management strategies with the promise to help mitigate climate change? In addressing these questions, LUMIP will also address a range of more detailed science questions to get at process-level attribution, uncertainty, data requirements, and other related issues in more depth and sophistication than possible in a multi-model context to date. There will be particular focus on the separation and quantification of the effects on climate from LULCC relative to all forcings, separation of biogeochemical from biogeophysical effects of land use, the unique impacts of land-cover change vs. land-management change, modulation of land-use impact on climate by land-atmosphere coupling strength, and the extent to which impacts of enhanced CO2 concentrations on plant photosynthesis are modulated by past and future land use.LUMIP involves three major sets of science activities: (1) development of an updated and expanded historical and future land-use data set, (2) an experimental protocol for specific LUMIP experiments for CMIP6, and (3) definition of metrics and diagnostic protocols that quantify model performance, and related sensitivities, with respect to LULCC. In this paper, we describe LUMIP activity (2), i.e., the LUMIP simulations that will formally be part of CMIP6. These experiments are explicitly designed to be

Assessing land-use changes in tourism area on the example of Čajetina municipality (Serbia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stankov Uglješa

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Tourism development can strongly affect purpose of land use at the destination and in surrounding areas. However, the effects of development in tourism destination cannot be easily visible and proven. Sometimes indicators of tourism development do not show its significant impact, but the structural changes are occurring and they affect land use. The aim of this paper is to employ methodology for assessing effects of development on land-use changes in tourism destination. Proposed methodology includes combination of the use of publically available geographical data, geographical information systems and landscape metrics. The applicability of this approach has been investigated in test region of Čajetina municipality (south-western part of the Republic of Serbia, where tourism industry has flourished in last decades. Time series of maps (2000 and 2006 have been obtained from CORINE land cover project. Landscape metrics for area, size and density have been calculated for the entire test region and for tourism destination at patch and class levels. The results showed significant effects of development on land use changes in investigated tourism area comparing to its surroundings.

Spatial land-use inventory, modeling, and projection/Denver metropolitan area, with inputs from existing maps, airphotos, and LANDSAT imagery

Science.gov (United States)

Tom, C.; Miller, L. D.; Christenson, J. W.

1978-01-01

A landscape model was constructed with 34 land-use, physiographic, socioeconomic, and transportation maps. A simple Markov land-use trend model was constructed from observed rates of change and nonchange from photointerpreted 1963 and 1970 airphotos. Seven multivariate land-use projection models predicting 1970 spatial land-use changes achieved accuracies from 42 to 57 percent. A final modeling strategy was designed, which combines both Markov trend and multivariate spatial projection processes. Landsat-1 image preprocessing included geometric rectification/resampling, spectral-band, and band/insolation ratioing operations. A new, systematic grid-sampled point training-set approach proved to be useful when tested on the four orginal MSS bands, ten image bands and ratios, and all 48 image and map variables (less land use). Ten variable accuracy was raised over 15 percentage points from 38.4 to 53.9 percent, with the use of the 31 ancillary variables. A land-use classification map was produced with an optimal ten-channel subset of four image bands and six ancillary map variables. Point-by-point verification of 331,776 points against a 1972/1973 U.S. Geological Survey (UGSG) land-use map prepared with airphotos and the same classification scheme showed average first-, second-, and third-order accuracies of 76.3, 58.4, and 33.0 percent, respectively.

LAND USE LAND COVER CHANGE IMPACT ON WATER RESOURCES - A REVIEW

OpenAIRE

Pranav Sharma, Gaurang Gupta, Paritosh Prabhakar, Sheetal Tiwari, Pankaj Kathait, Yash Pathak; Nitin Mishra; Sanjeev Kumar

2017-01-01

The land use change has generally occurred locally, regionally and worldwide over the last few decades and will carry on in the future as well. The increment in urbanization has a major impact on groundwater and it is major concern over the few years to those who are involved in groundwater studies. The enlargement of the urbanization area results in decrease in infiltration, which affect the groundwater recharge and storage. The land use change has to be evaluated properly using conventional...

Ecosystem service impacts of future changes in CO2, climate, and land use as simulated by a coupled vegetation/land-use model system

Science.gov (United States)

Rabin, S. S.; Alexander, P.; Henry, R.; Anthoni, P.; Pugh, T.; Rounsevell, M.; Arneth, A.

2017-12-01

In a future of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, changing climate, increasing human populations, and changing socioeconomic dynamics, the global agricultural system will need to adapt in order to feed the world. Global modeling can help to explore what these adaptations will look like, and their potential impacts on ecosystem services. To do so, however, the complex interconnections among the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems, and society mean that these various parts of the Earth system must be examined as an interconnected whole. With the goal of answering these questions, a model system has been developed that couples a biologically-representative global vegetation model, LPJ-GUESS, with the PLUMv2 land use model. LPJ-GUESS first simulates—at 0.5º resolution across the world—the potential yield of various crops and pasture under a range of management intensities for a time step given its atmospheric CO2 level and climatic forcings. These potential yield simulations are fed into PLUMv2, which uses them in conjunction with endogenous agricultural commodity demand and prices to produce land use and management inputs (fertilizer and irrigation water) at a sub-national level for the next time step. This process is performed through 2100 for a range of future climate and societal scenarios—the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), respectively—providing a thorough exploration of possible trajectories of land use and land cover change. The land use projections produced by PLUMv2 are fed back into LPJ-GUESS to simulate the future impacts of land use change, along with increasing CO2 and climate change, on terrestrial ecosystems. This integrated analysis examines the resulting impacts on regulating and provisioning ecosystem services affecting biophysics (albedo); carbon, nitrogen, and water cycling; and the emission of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs).

Peri-urban futures: Scenarios and models for land use change in Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

on a pan-European level Has a conclusive didactic approach + text structure (e.g. inserts, boxes ...) Presently, peri-urbanisation is one of the most pervasive processes of land use change in Europe with strong impacts on both the environment and quality of life. It is a matter of great urgency...... to determine strategies and tools in support of sustainable development. The book synthesizes the results of PLUREL, a large European Commission funded research project (2007-2010). Tools and strategies of PLUREL address main challenges of managing land use in peri-urban areas. These results are presented...

Land use changes and its driving forces in hilly ecological restoration area based on gis and rs of northern china

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Peng; Niu, Xiang; Wang, Bing; Zheng, Yunlong

2015-01-01

Land use change is one of the important aspects of the regional ecological restoration research. With remote sensing (RS) image in 2003, 2007 and 2012, using geographic information system (GIS) technologies, the land use pattern changes in Yimeng Mountain ecological restoration area in China and its driving force factors were studied. Results showed that: (1) Cultivated land constituted the largest area during 10 years, and followed by forest land and grass land; cultivated land and unused land were reduced by 28.43% and 44.32%, whereas forest land, water area and land for water facilities and others were increased. (2) During 2003–2007, forest land change showed the largest, followed by unused land and grass land; however, during 2008–2012, water area and land for water facilities change showed the largest, followed by grass land and unused land. (3) Land use degree was above the average level, it was in the developing period during 2003–2007 and in the degenerating period during 2008–2012. (4) Ecological Restoration Projects can greatly change the micro topography, increase vegetation coverage, and then induce significant changes in the land use distribution, which were the main driving force factors of the land use pattern change in the ecological restoration area. PMID:26047160

Projected hydrologic changes in monsoon-dominated Himalaya Mountain basins with changing climate and deforestation

Science.gov (United States)

Neupane, Ram P.; White, Joseph D.; Alexander, Sara E.

2015-06-01

In mountain headwaters, climate and land use changes affect short and long term site water budgets with resultant impacts on landslide risk, hydropower generation, and sustainable agriculture. To project hydrologic change associated with climate and land use changes in the Himalaya Mountains, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) calibrated for the Tamor and Seti River basins located at eastern and western margins of Nepal. Future climate change was modeled using averaged temperature and precipitation for 2080 derived from Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) (B1, A1B and A2) of 16 global circulation models (GCMs). Land use change was modeled spatially and included expansion of (1) agricultural land, (2) grassland, and (3) human settlement area that were produced by considering existing land use with projected changes associated with viability of elevation and slope characteristics of the basins capable of supporting different land use type. From these simulations, higher annual stream discharge was found for all GCM-derived scenarios compared to a baseline simulation with maximum increases of 13 and 8% in SRES-A2 and SRES-A1B for the Tamor and Seti basins, respectively. On seasonal basis, we assessed higher precipitation during monsoon season in all scenarios that corresponded with higher stream discharge of 72 and 68% for Tamor and Seti basins, respectively. This effect appears to be geographically important with higher influence in the eastern Tamor basin potentially due to longer and stronger monsoonal period of that region. However, we projected minimal changes in stream discharge for the land use scenarios potentially due to higher water transmission to groundwater reservoirs associated with fractures of the Himalaya Mountains rather than changes in surface runoff. However, when combined the effects of climate and land use changes, discharge was moderately increased indicating counteracting mechanisms of hydrologic yield in these mountains

Impact of land use change on soil erodibility

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. Taleshian Jeloudar

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Vulnerability of soil separates to detachment by water is described as soil erodibility by Universal Soil Loss Equation which can be affected by land use change. In this study it was attempted to quantify the changes of Universal Soil Loss Equation K-factor and its soil driving factors in three land uses including rangeland, rainfed farming, and orchards in Babolrood watershed, northern Iran. Soil composite samples were obtained from two layers in three land uses, and the related soil physico-chemical properties were measured. The rainfed farming land use showed the highest clay contents, but the highest amounts of soil organic matter and sand particles were found in orchard land use. The high intensity of tillage led to the significant decrease of soil aggregate stability and permeability in the rainfed farming land use. The Universal Soil Loss Equation K-factor was negatively correlated with soil permeability (r=-0.77**. In rangeland, the K-factor (0.045 Mg h/MJ/mm was significantly higher and the particle size distribution had a great impact on the K-factor. The orchard land use, converted from the rangeland, did not show any increase of soils erodibility and can potentially be introduced as a good alternative land use in sloping areas. However, more detailed studies on environmental, social and economic aspects of this land use are needed.

Scenario Simulation and the Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Change in Beijing, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Huiran Han

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Land use and land cover (LULC models are essential for analyzing LULC change and predicting land use requirements and are valuable for guiding reasonable land use planning and management. However, each LULC model has its own advantages and constraints. In this paper, we explore the characteristics of LULC change and simulate future land use demand by combining a CLUE-S model with a Markov model to deal with some shortcomings of existing LULC models. Using Beijing as a case study, we describe the related driving factors from land-adaptive variables, regional spatial variables and socio-economic variables and then simulate future land use scenarios from 2010 to 2020, which include a development scenario (natural development and rapid development and protection scenarios (ecological and cultivated land protection. The results indicate good consistency between predicted results and actual land use situations according to a Kappa statistic. The conversion of cultivated land to urban built-up land will form the primary features of LULC change in the future. The prediction for land use demand shows the differences under different scenarios. At higher elevations, the geographical environment limits the expansion of urban built-up land, but the conversion of cultivated land to built-up land in mountainous areas will be more prevalent by 2020; Beijing, however, still faces the most pressure in terms of ecological and cultivated land protection.

Climate extremes, land-climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C.

Science.gov (United States)

Seneviratne, Sonia I; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P; Hirsch, Annette L; Vogel, Martha M; Brovkin, Victor; van Vuuren, Detlef P; Schaller, Nathalie; Boysen, Lena; Calvin, Katherine V; Doelman, Jonathan; Greve, Peter; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Krisztin, Tamas; Mitchell, Daniel; Popp, Alexander; Riahi, Keywan; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Sillmann, Jana; Stehfest, Elke

2018-05-13

This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. © 2018 The Authors.

Climate extremes, land-climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

Science.gov (United States)

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P.; Hirsch, Annette L.; Vogel, Martha M.; Brovkin, Victor; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Schaller, Nathalie; Boysen, Lena; Calvin, Katherine V.; Doelman, Jonathan; Greve, Peter; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Krisztin, Tamas; Mitchell, Daniel; Popp, Alexander; Riahi, Keywan; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Sillmann, Jana; Stehfest, Elke

2018-05-01

This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the `Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways. This article is part of the theme issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Assessment of watershed regionalization for the land use change parameterization

Science.gov (United States)

Randusová, Beata; Kohnová, Silvia; Studvová, Zuzana; Marková, Romana; Nosko, Radovan

2016-04-01

The estimation of design discharges and water levels of extreme floods is one of the most important parts of the design process for a large number of engineering projects and studies. Floods and other natural hazards initiated by climate, soil, and land use changes are highly important in the 21st century. Flood risks and design flood estimation is particularly challenging. Methods of design flood estimation can be applied either locally or regionally. To obtain the design values in such cases where no recorded data exist, many countries have adopted procedures that fit the local conditions and requirements. One of these methods is the Soil Conservation Service - Curve number (SCS-CN) method which is often used in design flood estimation for ungauged sites. The SCS-CN method is an empirical rainfall-runoff model developed by the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (formerly called the Soil Conservation Service or SCS). The runoff curve number (CN) is based on the hydrological soil characteristics, land use, land management and antecedent saturation conditions of soil. This study is focused on development of the SCS-CN methodology for the changing land use conditions in Slovak basins (with the pilot site of the Myjava catchment), which regionalize actual state of land use data and actual rainfall and discharge measurements of the selected river basins. In this study the state of the water erosion and sediment transport along with a subsequent proposal of erosion control measures was analyzed as well. The regionalized SCS-CN method was subsequently used for assessing the effectiveness of this control measure to reduce runoff from the selected basin. For the determination of the sediment transport from the control measure to the Myjava basin, the SDR (Sediment Delivery Ratio) model was used.

Historical Carbon Dioxide Emissions Caused by Land-Use Changes are Possibly Larger than Assumed

Science.gov (United States)

Arneth, A.; Sitch, S.; Pongratz, J.; Stocker, B. D.; Ciais, P.; Poulter, B.; Bayer, A. D.; Bondeau, A.; Calle, L.; Chini, L. P.;

Modelling of the change of land use in Comalcalco, Tabasco, México

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rodimiro Ramos Reyes

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The land use change in Comalcalco, Tabasco, México, was modeled on the effect of the growth of anthropogenic activities on natural coverages. A spatial analysis was done using the Land Change Modeler (LCM and exchange rates were calculated. During 2000-2010, 8,391 ha of hydrophilic vegetation and 1,048 ha of water bodies were lost, due to the accelerated growth of 8,391 ha of agricultural use and 810 ha of urban areas. He noted the loss of 3,050 ha of pasture and the increase of 1,415 ha of mangrove. The Markov Chains and the Cellular Automata projected a scenario (2030 where 544 ha of hydrophilic vegetation, 1,048 ha of water bodies and 3,050 of pastureland were lost, due to the increase of 2,425 ha of agricultural use, 1,415 ha of mangrove and 1.110 of the urban area. Spatial analysis and projection highlight the importance of protecting hydrophilic vegetation, water bodies and increasing mangrove areas through an environmental planning that formally establishes zoning defined as: Protected Natural Area, Conservation, Priority Conservation and Utilization, as indicates the environmental management program.

Effects of climate change, land-use change, and invasive species on the ecology of the Cumberland forests

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dale, V.H.; Fogel, J.

2009-01-01

The mixed mesophytic forests of the Cumberland Plateau and Mountains in Tennessee and Kentucky are among the most diverse forests in North America. However, land use changes and climatic warming will have a significant impact on the forest biomass and composition in the region, which currently experiences mild winters and hot, humid summers. In this study, 3 general circulation models projected climatic warming throughout 2030 to 2080 as well as changes in precipitation patterns. Predicted changes from 1980 to 2100 were used in a forest ecosystem model to estimate transient changes in forest biomass and species composition over time. Results of the study demonstrated that climatic warning will cause an initial decline in forest stand biomass before a recovery period caused by forest species composition shifts. A landscape model showed that forest composition will change as a result of the spread of hemlock adelgid. Loss of the hemlocks will cause changes in soil nutrients and moisture conditions in mesic forests of the region. Land cover changes will be large and cause declines in forested lands as well as in a number of large, contiguous forest patches that provide a necessary habitat for species particular to the Cumberland area. 53 refs., 2 tabs., 8 figs

Effects of climate change, land-use change, and invasive species on the ecology of the Cumberland forests

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dale, V.H. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Environmental Sciences Div.; Lannom, K.O.; Hodges, D.G. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States). Natural Resource Policy Center; Tharp, M.L. [CompSci Consulting LLC, McRae, GA (United States); Fogel, J. [Virginia Tech Univ., Richmond, VA (United States). Virginia Cooperative Extension, Northeast District Office

2009-02-15

The mixed mesophytic forests of the Cumberland Plateau and Mountains in Tennessee and Kentucky are among the most diverse forests in North America. However, land use changes and climatic warming will have a significant impact on the forest biomass and composition in the region, which currently experiences mild winters and hot, humid summers. In this study, 3 general circulation models projected climatic warming throughout 2030 to 2080 as well as changes in precipitation patterns. Predicted changes from 1980 to 2100 were used in a forest ecosystem model to estimate transient changes in forest biomass and species composition over time. Results of the study demonstrated that climatic warning will cause an initial decline in forest stand biomass before a recovery period caused by forest species composition shifts. A landscape model showed that forest composition will change as a result of the spread of hemlock adelgid. Loss of the hemlocks will cause changes in soil nutrients and moisture conditions in mesic forests of the region. Land cover changes will be large and cause declines in forested lands as well as in a number of large, contiguous forest patches that provide a necessary habitat for species particular to the Cumberland area. 53 refs., 2 tabs., 8 figs.

Correlation between land use changes and shoreline changes around THE Nakdong River in Korea using landsat images.

Science.gov (United States)

Kwon, J. S.; Lim, C.; Baek, S. G.; Shin, S.

2015-12-01

Coastal erosion has badly affected the marine environment, as well as the safety of various coastal structures. In order to monitor shoreline changes due to coastal erosion, remote sensing techniques are being utilized. The land-cover map classifies the physical material on the surface of the earth, and it can be utilized in establishing eco-policy and land-use policy. In this study, we analyzed the correlation between land-use changes around the Nakdong River and shoreline changes at Busan Dadaepo Beach adjacent to the river. We produced the land-cover map based on the guidelines published by the Ministry of Environment Korea, using eight Landsat satellite images obtained from 1984 to 2015. To observe land use changes around the Nakdong River, the study site was set to include the surroundings areas of the Busan Dadaepo Beach, the Nakdong River as well as its estuary, and also Busan New Port. For the land-use classification of the study site, we also produced a land-cover map divided into seven categories according to the Ministry of Environment, Korea guidelines and using the most accurate Maximum Likelihood Method (MLM). Land use changes inland, at 500m from the shoreline, were excluded for the correlation analysis between land use changes and shoreline changes. The other categories, except for the water category, were transformed into numerical values and the land-use classifications, using all other categories, were analyzed. Shoreline changes were observed by setting the base-line and three cut-lines. We assumed that longshore bars around the Nakdong River and the shoreline of the Busan Dadaepo Beach are affected. Therefore, we expect that shoreline changes happen due to the influence of barren land, wetlands, built-up areas and deposition. The causes are due to natural factors, such as weather, waves, tide currents, longshore currents, and also artificial factors such as coastal structures, construction, and dredging.

Streamflow response to potential land use and climate changes in the James River watershed, Upper Midwest United States

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laurent Ahiablame

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Study region: North and South Dakotas, United States Study focus: Changes in watershed hydrology are mainly driven by changes in land use and climate. This study evaluated the impacts of climate and land use changes on streamflow in an agricultural watershed in the Upper Midwest. Three projected climate change scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1 of three general circulation models (CGCM3.1, GFDL-CM2.1, and HADCM3 were developed for mid (2046–2065 and end (2080–2099 of the 21st century. Corresponding land use maps for years 2055 and 2090 were obtained from the FOREcasting SCEnarios of Land-Cover (FORE-SCE model. The scenarios were designed in a way that land use was changed while climate conditions remain constant, land use was then held constant under a changing climate, and finally both land use and climate were changed simultaneously to reflect possible future land use and climate conditions. New hydrological insights for the region: Potential land use and climate changes would result in 12–18% % and 17–41% increases in annual streamflow, respectively, by end of the century. The combined effects of land use and climate changes would intensify future streamflow responses with 13–60% increases in the region. This study provides a broad perspective on plausible hydrologic alterations in the region, prompting individual and collective opportunities to engage with this topic for sustainable planning and management of watersheds. Keywords: Watershed modeling, Precipitation, Agricultural land, Grassland, Dakota, SWAT

Using Backcast Land-Use Change and Groundwater Travel-Time Models to Generate Land-Use Legacy Maps for Watershed Management

OpenAIRE

Bryan Pijanowski; Deepak K. Ray; Anthony D. Kendall; Jonah M. Duckles; David W. Hyndman

2007-01-01

We couple two spatial-temporal models, a backcast land-use change model and a groundwater flow model, to develop what we call "land-use legacy maps." We quantify how a land-use legacy map, created from maps of past land use and groundwater travel times, differs from a current land-use map. We show how these map differences can affect land-use planning and watershed management decisions at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Our approach demonstrates that land-use legacy maps provide a m...

Biofuels, land use change, and greenhouse gas emissions: some unexplored variables.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Hyungtae; Kim, Seungdo; Dale, Bruce E

2009-02-01

Greenhouse gas release from land use change (the so-called "carbon debt") has been identified as a potentially significant contributor to the environmental profile of biofuels. The time required for biofuels to overcome this carbon debt due to land use change and begin providing cumulative greenhouse gas benefits is referred to as the "payback period" and has been estimated to be 100-1000 years depending on the specific ecosystem involved in the land use change event. Two mechanisms for land use change exist: "direct" land use change, in which the land use change occurs as part of a specific supply chain for a specific biofuel production facility, and "indirect" land use change, in which market forces act to produce land use change in land that is not part of a specific biofuel supply chain, including, for example, hypothetical land use change on another continent. Existing land use change studies did not consider many of the potentially important variables that might affect the greenhouse gas emissions of biofuels. We examine here several variables that have not yet been addressed in land use change studies. Our analysis shows that cropping management is a key factor in estimating greenhouse gas emissions associated with land use change. Sustainable cropping management practices (no-till and no-till plus cover crops) reduce the payback period to 3 years for the grassland conversion case and to 14 years for the forest conversion case. It is significant that no-till and cover crop practices also yield higher soil organic carbon (SOC) levels in corn fields derived from former grasslands or forests than the SOC levels that result if these grasslands or forests are allowed to continue undisturbed. The United States currently does not hold any of its domestic industries responsible for its greenhouse gas emissions. Thus the greenhouse gas standards established for renewable fuels such as corn ethanol in the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007 set a

Land Use, climate change and BIOdiversity in cultural landscapes (LUBIO): Assessing feedbacks and promoting land-use strategies towards a viable future

Science.gov (United States)

Dullinger, Iwona; Bohner, Andreas; Dullinger, Stefan; Essl, Franz; Gaube, Veronika; Haberl, Helmut; Mayer, Andreas; Plutzar, Christoph; Remesch, Alexander

2016-04-01

Land-use and climate change are important, pervasive drivers of global environmental change and pose major threats to global biodiversity. Research to date has mostly focused either on land-use change or on climate change, but rarely on the interactions between both drivers, even though it is expected that systemic feedbacks between changes in climate and land use will have important effects on biodiversity. In particular, climate change will not only alter the pool of plant and animal species capable of thriving in a specific area, it will also force land owners to reconsider their land use decisions. Such changes in land-use practices may have major additional effects on local and regional species composition and abundance. In LUBIO, we will explore the anticipated systemic feedbacks between (1) climate change, (2) land owner's decisions on land use, (3) land-use change, and (4) changes in biodiversity patterns during the coming decades in a regional context which integrates a broad range of land use practices and intensity gradients. To achieve this goal, an integrated socioecological model will be designed and implemented, consisting of three principal components: (1) an agent based model (ABM) that simulates decisions of important actors, (2) a spatially explicit GIS model that translates these decisions into changes in land cover and land use patterns, and (3) a species distribution model (SDM) that calculates changes in biodiversity patterns following from both changes in climate and the land use decisions as simulated in the ABM. Upon integration of these three components, the coupled socioecological model will be used to generate scenarios of future land-use decisions of landowners under climate change and, eventually, the combined effects of climate and land use changes on biodiversity. Model development of the ABM will be supported by a participatory process intended to collect regional and expert knowledge through a series of expert interviews, a series

Monitoring land use/land cover changes using CORINE land cover data: a case study of Silivri coastal zone in Metropolitan Istanbul.

Science.gov (United States)

Yilmaz, Rüya

2010-06-01

The objective of the present study was to assess changes in land use/land cover patterns in the coastal town of Silivri, a part of greater Istanbul administratively. In the assessment, remotely sensed data, in the form of satellite images, and geographic information systems were used. Types of land use/land cover were designated as the percentage of the total area studied. Results calculated from the satellite data for land cover classification were compared successfully with the database Coordination of Information on the Environment (CORINE). This served as a reference to appraise the reliability of the study presented here. The CORINE Program was established by the European Commission to create a harmonized Geographical Information System on the state of the environment in the European Community. Unplanned urbanization is causing land use changes mainly in developing countries such as Turkey. This situation in Turkey is frequently observed in the city of Istanbul. There are only a few studies of land use-land cover changes which provide an integrated assessment of the biophysical and societal causes and consequences of environmental degradation in Istanbul. The research area comprised greater Silivri Town which is situated by the coast of Marmara Sea, and it is located approximately 60 km west of Istanbul. The city of Istanbul is one of the largest metropolises in Europe with ca. 15 million inhabitants. Additionally, greater Silivri is located near the terminal point of the state highway connecting Istanbul with Europe. Measuring of changes occurring in land use would help control future planning of settlements; hence, it is of importance for the Greater Silivri and Silivri Town. Following our evaluations, coastal zone of Silivri was classified into the land use groups of artificial surfaces agricultural areas and forests and seminatural areas with 47.1%, 12.66%, and 22.62%, respectively.

Political ecology of land use change in Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Novira, Nina

2014-05-01

Indonesia had once around 10% of the world's rain forest. Many accuse shifting cultivation and poverty to be responsible to tropical deforestation and land use change. Without denying the importance of these factors, this paper tries to see the problem from a different angel. Massive deforestation first took place when the Dutch colonials decided to develop coffee, tea and later rubber and oil palm plantation in the late 19th century. During the Independence Era, land use change can be divided into 3 periods: 1950 - 1975 period of agricultural expansion, mainly government program; 1975 - 1990 period of commercial logging concession, mainly private concession with government's endorsement; and 1990 to date period of land use change to cash crop, settlement, and business area, a more complex process involving private company, government program and endorsement, and personal action. The first two periodization shows clearly that land use change in Indonesia has a strong connection to political decision and power at certain period of time, which also influenced by international market tendencies at the given period. The last period has actually not so much difference. This paper seeks to explain land use change in Indonesia especially in the last period of 1990 to present. This period can be divided again into 3 sub-periods: later New Order Era, early Reformation Era, and the Regional Autonomy Era. The case study was conducted in Labuhan Batu Utara District of North Sumatera. Semi-structured interview was done with various actors in different levels. It is argued that government's policies and arrangements along with government's reaction to international market and politics plays a substantially important role in land use change. In the first sub-period (1990 - 1998), it is the fading power of Suharto's regime that increases farmers' courage to violate the strict prohibition of rice field conversion to other uses. Another important factor is the introduction of

Land Use Changes of an Aeolian-Loessial Soil Area in Northwest China: Implications for Ecological Restoration

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

CHEN Yu-Fu; LIU Yan-Sui; WANG Jing; YAN Jian-Ping; GUO Xu-Dong

2009-01-01

China has experienced dramatic land use changes over recent decades,with marked environmental and socio-economic consequences.Hcngshan County,located in the aeolian-loessial area of Northwest China,was investigated to illustrate land use changes and their implications for environmental and long-term rural economic development.The farmland in Hengshan County significantly decreased during 1990-2003,whereas forest land and grassland increased.The conversion rates of farmland,orchard land,forest land and construction land varied markedly among different periods:1990-1995,1995-2000 and 2000-2003.Conversion of orchard land,grassland and construction land was dominant in 1990-1995,whereas the conversion of farmland to forest land mainly occurred in 2000-2003.The results suggested a profound transition in institutional policy and political economy of land management,including implementation of integrated soil erosion control projects,adoption of a market-oriented economy and the 'Grain-for-Green' policy,during this period in China.To achieve long-term sustainable land use in Hengshan County,efforts should aim at increasing off-farm income of rural families as well as establishing land-economizing mechanisms to promote land productivity,in addition to conservation measures.

Analyzing the Impacts of Land Use Land Change on Near Shore Coastal Habitat

Science.gov (United States)

Lehman, R. D.; Ta, E.; Boyle, C.; Alwood, B.

2017-12-01

The natural beauty of the United States Virgin Islands (USVI) has continued to attract visitors and residents, which overtime has increased human development and impact. The resulting land use change increases sediment loads and the flow of pollutants into surrounding nearshore environments such as coral reefs, mangroves, and seagrass beds. Compounded with regional climate-related processes such as rising ocean temperatures and acidification, future land-use change poses a formidable threat to coral reefs and other susceptible marine environments. Without a healthy environment, the USVI economy also becomes endangered because it is mainly supported by tourism and recreation. Using Google Earth Engine, we created a tool to composite yearly Landsat 5 TM, Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS and Sentinel-2 MSI images identify changes from 1985 to present day. Using these land cover change maps we then analyzed trends at a watershed scale using hydrological data. We found there is a spatial relationship between development intensity and the health of coral reefs. Our work supports the existing knowledge of the link between land use and coastal ecosystem health.

Do we need to account for scenarios of land use/land cover changes in regional climate modeling and impact studies?

Science.gov (United States)

Strada, Susanna; de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie; Perrin, Mathieu; Stefanon, Marc

2016-04-01

By modifying the Earth's natural landscapes, humans have introduced an imbalance in the Earth System's energy, water and emission fluxes via land-use and land-cover changes (LULCCs). Through land-atmosphere interactions, LULCCs influence weather, air quality and climate at different scales, from regional/local (a few ten kilometres) (Pielke et al., 2011) to global (a few hundred kilometres) (Mahmood et al., 2014). Therefore, in the context of climate change, LULCCs will play a role locally/regionally in altering weather/atmospheric conditions. In addition to the global climate change impacts, LULCCs will possibly induce further changes in the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems and thereby affect adaptation strategies. If LULCCs influence weather/atmospheric conditions, could land use planning alter climate conditions and ease the impact of climate change by wisely shaping urban and rural landscapes? Nowadays, numerical land-atmosphere modelling allows to assess LULCC impacts at different scales (e.g., Marshall et al., 2003; de Noblet-Ducoudré et al., 2011). However, most scenarios of climate changes used to force impact models result from downscaling procedures that do not account for LULCCs (e.g., Jacob et al., 2014). Therefore, if numerical modelling may help in tackling the discussion about LULCCs, do existing LULCC scenarios encompass realistic changes in terms of land use planning? In the present study, we apply a surface model to compare projected LULCC scenarios over France and to assess their impacts on surface fluxes (i.e., water, heat and carbon dioxide fluxes) and on water and carbon storage in soils. To depict future LULCCs in France, we use RCP scenarios from the IPCC AR5 report (Moss et al., 2011). LULCCs encompassed in RCPs are discussed in terms of: (a) their impacts on water and energy balance over France, and (b) their feasibility in the framework of land use planning in France. This study is the first step to quantify the sensitivity of land

Pairing FLUXNET sites to validate model representations of land-use/land-cover change

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Liang; Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Guo, Zhichang; Schultz, Natalie M.

2018-01-01

Land surface energy and water fluxes play an important role in land-atmosphere interactions, especially for the climatic feedback effects driven by land-use/land-cover change (LULCC). These have long been documented in model-based studies, but the performance of land surface models in representing LULCC-induced responses has not been investigated well. In this study, measurements from proximate paired (open versus forest) flux tower sites are used to represent observed deforestation-induced changes in surface fluxes, which are compared with simulations from the Community Land Model (CLM) and the Noah Multi-Parameterization (Noah-MP) land model. Point-scale simulations suggest the CLM can represent the observed diurnal and seasonal changes in net radiation (Rnet) and ground heat flux (G), but difficulties remain in the energy partitioning between latent (LE) and sensible (H) heat flux. The CLM does not capture the observed decreased daytime LE, and overestimates the increased H during summer. These deficiencies are mainly associated with models' greater biases over forest land-cover types and the parameterization of soil evaporation. Global gridded simulations with the CLM show uncertainties in the estimation of LE and H at the grid level for regional and global simulations. Noah-MP exhibits a similar ability to simulate the surface flux changes, but with larger biases in H, G, and Rnet change during late winter and early spring, which are related to a deficiency in estimating albedo. Differences in meteorological conditions between paired sites is not a factor in these results. Attention needs to be devoted to improving the representation of surface heat flux processes in land models to increase confidence in LULCC simulations.

Impact of Land Use Land Cover Change on East Asian monsoon

Science.gov (United States)

Chilukoti, N.; Xue, Y.; Liu, Y.; Lee, J.

2017-12-01

Humans modify the Earth's terrestrial surface on a continental scale by removing natural vegetation for crops/grazing. The current rates, extents and intensities of Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC) are greater than ever in history. The earlier studies of Land-atmosphere interactions used specified land surface conditions without interannual variations. In this study using NCEP CFSv2 coupled with Simplified Simple Biosphere (SSiB) model, biogeophysical impacts of LULCC on climate variability, anomaly, and changes are investigated by using the LULCC map from the Hurtt et al. (2006, 2011), which covered 66 years from 1950-2015 with annual variability. We combined the changes in crop and pasture fractions and consider as LULCC. A methodology had been developed to convert the Hurtt LULCC change map with 1° resolution to the GCM grid points. Since the GCM has only one dominant type, when the crop and pasture frction value at one point was larger than the critical value, that grid was assigned as degraded. Comprehensive evaluation was conducted to ensure the consistence of the trend of land degradation in the Hurtt's map and in the GCM LULCC map. In the degraded point, trees were changed to low vegetation or grasses, and low vegetation to bare soil. A set of surface parameters such as leaf area index, vegetation height, roughness length, and soil parameters, associated with vegetation are changed to show the degradation effects. We integrated the model with the potential vegetation map and the map with LULCC from 1950 to 2015, and the results indicate the LULCC causes precipitation reduction globally, with the strongest signals over monsoon regions. For instance, the degradation in Mexico, West Africa, south and East Asia and South America produced significant precipitation anomalies, some of which are consistent with observed regional precipitation anomalies. Meanwhile, it has also found that the LULCC enhances the surface warming during the summer in monsoon

Spatio-temporal Characteristics of Land Use Land Cover Change Driven by Large Scale Land Transactions in Cambodia

Science.gov (United States)

Ghosh, A.; Smith, J. C.; Hijmans, R. J.

2017-12-01

Since mid-1990s, the Cambodian government granted nearly 300 `Economic Land Concessions' (ELCs), occupying approximately 2.3 million ha to foreign and domestic organizations (primarily agribusinesses). The majority of Cambodian ELC deals have been issued in areas of both relatively low population density and low agricultural productivity, dominated by smallholder production. These regions often contain highly biodiverse areas, thereby increasing the ecological cost associated with land clearing for extractive purposes. These large-scale land transactions have also resulted in substantial and rapid changes in land-use patterns and agriculture practices by smallholder farmers. In this study, we investigated the spatio-temporal characteristics of land use change associated with large-scale land transactions across Cambodia using multi-temporal multi-reolution remote sensing data. We identified major regions of deforestation during the last two decades using Landsat archive, global forest change data (2000-2014) and georeferenced database of ELC deals. We then mapped the deforestation and land clearing within ELC boundaries as well as areas bordering or near ELCs to quantify the impact of ELCs on local communities. Using time-series from MODIS Vegetation Indices products for the study period, we also estimated the time period over which any particular ELC deal initiated its proposed activity. We found evidence of similar patterns of land use change outside the boundaries of ELC deals which may be associated with i) illegal land encroachments by ELCs and/or ii) new agricultural practices adopted by local farmers near ELC boundaries. We also detected significant time gaps between ELC deal granting dates and initiation of land clearing for ELC purposes. Interestingly, we also found that not all designated areas for ELCs were put into effect indicating the possible proliferation of speculative land deals. This study demonstrates the potential of remote sensing techniques

Simulating the Impact of Future Land Use and Climate Change on Soil Erosion and Deposition in the Mae Nam Nan Sub-Catchment, Thailand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nitin Kumar Tripathi

2013-07-01

Full Text Available This paper evaluates the possible impacts of climate change and land use change and its combined effects on soil loss and net soil loss (erosion and deposition in the Mae Nam Nan sub-catchment, Thailand. Future climate from two general circulation models (GCMs and a regional circulation model (RCM consisting of HadCM3, NCAR CSSM3 and PRECIS RCM ware downscaled using a delta change approach. Cellular Automata/Markov (CA_Markov model was used to characterize future land use. Soil loss modeling using Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE and sedimentation modeling in Idrisi software were employed to estimate soil loss and net soil loss under direct impact (climate change, indirect impact (land use change and full range of impact (climate and land use change to generate results at a 10 year interval between 2020 and 2040. Results indicate that soil erosion and deposition increase or decrease, depending on which climate and land use scenarios are considered. The potential for climate change to increase soil loss rate, soil erosion and deposition in future periods was established, whereas considerable decreases in erosion are projected when land use is increased from baseline periods. The combined climate and land use change analysis revealed that land use planning could be adopted to mitigate soil erosion and deposition in the future, in conjunction with the projected direct impact of climate change.

Using ASTER Imagery in Land Use/cover Classification of Eastern Mediterranean Landscapes According to CORINE Land Cover Project

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Recep Gundogan

2008-02-01

Full Text Available The satellite imagery has been effectively utilized for classifying land covertypes and detecting land cover conditions. The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emissionand Reflection Radiometer (ASTER sensor imagery has been widely used in classificationprocess of land cover. However, atmospheric corrections have to be made by preprocessingsatellite sensor imagery since the electromagnetic radiation signals received by the satellitesensors can be scattered and absorbed by the atmospheric gases and aerosols. In this study,an ASTER sensor imagery, which was converted into top-of-atmosphere reflectance(TOA, was used to classify the land use/cover types, according to COoRdination ofINformation on the Environment (CORINE land cover nomenclature, for an arearepresenting the heterogonous characteristics of eastern Mediterranean regions inKahramanmaras, Turkey. The results indicated that using the surface reflectance data ofASTER sensor imagery can provide accurate (i.e. overall accuracy and kappa values of83.2% and 0.79, respectively and low-cost cover mapping as a part of inventory forCORINE Land Cover Project.

Sustainable Land Use in Mountain Regions Under Global Change: Synthesis Across Scales and Disciplines

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Robert Huber

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Mountain regions provide essential ecosystem goods and services (EGS for both mountain dwellers and people living outside these areas. Global change endangers the capacity of mountain ecosystems to provide key services. The Mountland project focused on three case study regions in the Swiss Alps and aimed to propose land-use practices and alternative policy solutions to ensure the provision of key EGS under climate and land-use changes. We summarized and synthesized the results of the project and provide insights into the ecological, socioeconomic, and political processes relevant for analyzing global change impacts on a European mountain region. In Mountland, an integrative approach was applied, combining methods from economics and the political and natural sciences to analyze ecosystem functioning from a holistic human-environment system perspective. In general, surveys, experiments, and model results revealed that climate and socioeconomic changes are likely to increase the vulnerability of the EGS analyzed. We regard the following key characteristics of coupled human-environment systems as central to our case study areas in mountain regions: thresholds, heterogeneity, trade-offs, and feedback. Our results suggest that the institutional framework should be strengthened in a way that better addresses these characteristics, allowing for (1 more integrative approaches, (2 a more network-oriented management and steering of political processes that integrate local stakeholders, and (3 enhanced capacity building to decrease the identified vulnerability as central elements in the policy process. Further, to maintain and support the future provision of EGS in mountain regions, policy making should also focus on project-oriented, cross-sectoral policies and spatial planning as a coordination instrument for land use in general.

Fuzzy optimization model for land use change

OpenAIRE

L. Jahanshahloo; E. Haghi

2014-01-01

There are some important questions in Land use change literature, for instance How much land to allocate to each of a number of land use type in order to maximization of (household or individual) rent -paying ability, minimization of environmental impacts or maximization of population income. In this paper, we want to investigate them and propose mathematical models to find an answer for these questions. Since Most of the parameters in this process are linguistics and fuzzy logic is a powerfu...

Land-Use Change Modelling in the Upper Blue Nile Basin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seleshi G. Yalew

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Land-use and land-cover changes are driving unprecedented changes in ecosystems and environmental processes at different scales. This study was aimed at identifying the potential land-use drivers in the Jedeb catchment of the Abbay basin by combining statistical analysis, field investigation and remote sensing. To do so, a land-use change model was calibrated and evaluated using the SITE (SImulation of Terrestrial Environment modelling framework. SITE is cellular automata based multi-criteria decision analysis framework for simulating land-use conversion based on socio-economic and environmental factors. Past land-use trajectories (1986–2009 were evaluated using a reference Landsat-derived map (agreement of 84%. Results show that major land-use change drivers in the study area were population, slope, livestock and distances from various infrastructures (roads, markets and water. It was also found that farmers seem to increasingly prefer plantations of trees such as Eucalyptus by replacing croplands perhaps mainly due to declining crop yield, soil fertility and climate variability. Potential future trajectory of land-use change was also predicted under a business-as-usual scenario (2009–2025. Results show that agricultural land will continue to expand from 69.5% in 2009 to 77.5% in 2025 in the catchment albeit at a declining rate when compared with the period from 1986 to 2009. Plantation forest will also increase at a much higher rate, mainly at the expense of natural vegetation, agricultural land and grasslands. This study provides critical information to land-use planners and policy makers for a more effective and proactive management in this highland catchment.

Modeling socioeconomic and ecologic aspects of land-use change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dale, V.H.; Pedlowski, M.A.; O'Neill, R.V.; Southworth, F.

1992-01-01

Land use change is one of the major factors affecting global environmental conditions. Prevalent types of land-use change include replacing forests with agriculture, mines or ranches; forest degradation from collection of firewood; and forest logging. A global effect of wide-scale deforestation is an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, which may affect climate. Regional effects include loss of biodiversity and disruption of hydrologic regimes. Local effects include soil erosion, siltation and decreases in soil fertility, loss of extractive reserves, and disruption of indigenous people. Modeling land use change requires combining socioeconomic and ecological factors because socioeconomic forces frequently initiate land-use change and are affected by the subsequent ecological degradation. This paper describes a modeling system that integrates submodels of human colonization and impacts to estimate patterns and rates of deforestation under different immigration and land use scenarios. Immigration which follows road building or paving is a major factor in the rapid deforestation of previously inaccessible areas. Roads facilitate colonization, allow access for large machines, and provide transportation routes for mort of raw materials and produce

Evaluating the combined effects of climate and land-use change on tree species distributions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Garcia-Valdes, Raul; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Zavala, Miguel A.

2015-01-01

Summary: A large proportion of the world's biodiversity is reportedly threatened by habitat loss and climate change. However, there are few studies that investigate the interaction between these two threats using empirical data. Here, we investigate interactions between climate change and land-use...... change in the future distribution of 23 dominant tree species in mainland Spain. We simulated changes up to year 2100 using a climate-dependent Stochastic Patch Occupancy Model, parameterized with colonization and extinction events recorded in 46 596 survey plots. We estimated that the distribution of 17......% of the habitat, was estimated to reduce species occupancies (relative to baseline projections) by an average of 23% if habitat loss was spatially clumped, and by 35% if it was scattered. If habitat loss occurred in areas already impacted by human activities, species occupancies would be reduced by 26%. Land-use...

Impacts of land use change scenarios on hydrology and land use patterns in the Wu-Tu watershed in Northern Taiwan

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lin Yu-Pin,; Hong Nien-Ming,; Wu Pei-Jung,; Wu Chen-Fa,; Verburg, P.H.

2007-01-01

Developing an approach for simulating and assessing land use changes and their effects on land use patterns and hydrological processes at the watershed level is essential in land use and water resource planning and management. This study provided a novel approach that combines a land use change

A coherent set of future land use change scenarios for Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rounsevell, M. D. A.; Reginster, I.; Araújo, Miguel B.

2006-01-01

This paper presents a range of future, spatially explicit, land use change scenarios for the EU15, Norway and Switzerland based on an interpretation of the global storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that are presented in the special report on emissions scenarios (SRES......). The methodology is based on a qualitative interpretation of the SRES storylines for the European region, an estimation of the aggregate totals of land use change using various land use change models and the allocation of these aggregate quantities in space using spatially explicit rules. The spatial patterns...... are further downscaled from a resolution of 10 min to 250 m using statistical downscaling procedures. The scenarios include the major land use/land cover classes urban, cropland, grassland and forest land as well as introducing new land use classes such as bioenergy crops. The scenario changes are most...

MONITORING SPATIOTEMPORAL CHANGES OF HEAT ISLAND IN BABOL CITY DUE TO LAND USE CHANGES

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S. K. Alavi Panah

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Urban heat island is one of the most vital environmental risks in urban areas. The advent of remote sensing technology provides better visibility due to the integrated view, low-cost, fast and effective way to study and monitor environmental and humanistic changes. The aim of this study is a spatiotemporal evaluation of land use changes and the heat island in the time period of 1985-2015 for the studied area in the city of Babol. For this purpose, multi-temporal Landsat images were used in this study. For calculating the land surface temperature (LST, single-channel and maximum likelihood algorithms were used, to classify Images. Therefore, land use changes and LST were examined, and thereby the relationship between land-use changes was analyzed with the normalized LST. By using the average and standard deviation of normalized thermal images, the area was divided into five temperature categories, inter alia, very low, low, medium, high and very high and then, the heat island changes in the studied time period were investigated. The results indicate that land use changes for built-up lands increased by 92%, and a noticeable decrease was observed for agricultural lands. The Built-up land changes trend has direct relation with the trend of normalized surface temperature changes. Low and very low-temperature categories which follow a decreasing trend, are related to lands far away from the city. Also, high and very high-temperature categories whose areas increase annually, are adjacent to the city center and exit ways of the town. The results emphasize on the importance of attention of urban planners and managers to the urban heat island as an environmental risk.

Monitoring Spatiotemporal Changes of Heat Island in Babol City due to Land Use Changes

Science.gov (United States)

Alavi Panah, S. K.; Kiavarz Mogaddam, M.; Karimi Firozjaei, M.

2017-09-01

Urban heat island is one of the most vital environmental risks in urban areas. The advent of remote sensing technology provides better visibility due to the integrated view, low-cost, fast and effective way to study and monitor environmental and humanistic changes. The aim of this study is a spatiotemporal evaluation of land use changes and the heat island in the time period of 1985-2015 for the studied area in the city of Babol. For this purpose, multi-temporal Landsat images were used in this study. For calculating the land surface temperature (LST), single-channel and maximum likelihood algorithms were used, to classify Images. Therefore, land use changes and LST were examined, and thereby the relationship between land-use changes was analyzed with the normalized LST. By using the average and standard deviation of normalized thermal images, the area was divided into five temperature categories, inter alia, very low, low, medium, high and very high and then, the heat island changes in the studied time period were investigated. The results indicate that land use changes for built-up lands increased by 92%, and a noticeable decrease was observed for agricultural lands. The Built-up land changes trend has direct relation with the trend of normalized surface temperature changes. Low and very low-temperature categories which follow a decreasing trend, are related to lands far away from the city. Also, high and very high-temperature categories whose areas increase annually, are adjacent to the city center and exit ways of the town. The results emphasize on the importance of attention of urban planners and managers to the urban heat island as an environmental risk.

Land-use change and infectious disease in West Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Thomson, M. C.; Ericksen, P. J.; Mohamed, A. Ben; Connor, S. J.

Land-use change has been associated with changes in the dynamics of infectious disease in West Africa. Here we describe the complex interactions of land-use change with three diseases (both vector- and non-vector-borne) of considerable public health significance in this region, namely, malaria and irrigation; epidemic meningitis and land degradation; onchocerciasis and deforestation. We highlight the confounding effect of climate variability, which acts as a driver of both land-use change and human health. We conclude, as have others, that the scale of observation always matters, and complex and dynamic feedbacks among social-ecological systems are not easily teased apart. We suggest that in order to establish the causal chain of interactions between land-use change and human health outcomes two approaches are necessary. The first is to have a thorough understanding of the aetiology of disease and the specific mechanisms by which land-use and climate variability affect the transmission of pathogens. This is achieved by focused, detailed studies encompassing a wide range of potential drivers, which are inevitably small scale and often cover short time periods. The second consists of large-scale studies of statistical associations between transmission indices or health outcomes and environmental variables stratified by known ecological or socio-economic confounders, and sufficient in size to overcome local biases in results. Such research activities need to be designed to inform each other if we are to develop predictive models for monitoring these diseases and to develop integrated programs for human health and sustainable land use.

Divergent projections of future land use in the United States arising from different models and scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Sohl, Terry L.; Wimberly, Michael; Radeloff, Volker C.; Theobald, David M.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.

2016-01-01

A variety of land-use and land-cover (LULC) models operating at scales from local to global have been developed in recent years, including a number of models that provide spatially explicit, multi-class LULC projections for the conterminous United States. This diversity of modeling approaches raises the question: how consistent are their projections of future land use? We compared projections from six LULC modeling applications for the United States and assessed quantitative, spatial, and conceptual inconsistencies. Each set of projections provided multiple scenarios covering a period from roughly 2000 to 2050. Given the unique spatial, thematic, and temporal characteristics of each set of projections, individual projections were aggregated to a common set of basic, generalized LULC classes (i.e., cropland, pasture, forest, range, and urban) and summarized at the county level across the conterminous United States. We found very little agreement in projected future LULC trends and patterns among the different models. Variability among scenarios for a given model was generally lower than variability among different models, in terms of both trends in the amounts of basic LULC classes and their projected spatial patterns. Even when different models assessed the same purported scenario, model projections varied substantially. Projections of agricultural trends were often far above the maximum historical amounts, raising concerns about the realism of the projections. Comparisons among models were hindered by major discrepancies in categorical definitions, and suggest a need for standardization of historical LULC data sources. To capture a broader range of uncertainties, ensemble modeling approaches are also recommended. However, the vast inconsistencies among LULC models raise questions about the theoretical and conceptual underpinnings of current modeling approaches. Given the substantial effects that land-use change can have on ecological and societal processes, there

Quantifying the impact of land use change on hydrological responses in the Upper Ganga Basin, India

Science.gov (United States)

Tsarouchi, Georgia-Marina; Mijic, Ana; Moulds, Simon; Chawla, Ila; Mujumdar, Pradeep; Buytaert, Wouter

2013-04-01

Quantifying how changes in land use affect the hydrological response at the river basin scale is a challenge in hydrological science and especially in the tropics where many regions are considered data sparse. Earlier work by the authors developed and used high-resolution, reconstructed land cover maps for northern India, based on satellite imagery and historic land-use maps for the years 1984, 1998 and 2010. Large-scale land use changes and their effects on landscape patterns can impact water supply in a watershed by altering hydrological processes such as evaporation, infiltration, surface runoff, groundwater discharge and stream flow. Three land use scenarios were tested to explore the sensitivity of the catchment's response to land use changes: (a) historic land use of 1984 with integrated evolution to 2010; (b) land use of 2010 remaining stable; and (c) hypothetical future projection of land use for 2030. The future scenario was produced with Markov chain analysis and generation of transition probability matrices, indicating transition potentials from one land use class to another. The study used socio-economic (population density), geographic (distances to roads and rivers, and location of protected areas) and biophysical drivers (suitability of soil for agricultural production, slope, aspect, and elevation). The distributed version of the land surface model JULES was integrated at a resolution of 0.01° for the years 1984 to 2030. Based on a sensitivity analysis, the most sensitive parameters were identified. Then, the model was calibrated against measured daily stream flow data. The impact of land use changes was investigated by calculating annual variations in hydrological components, differences in annual stream flow and surface runoff during the simulation period. The land use changes correspond to significant differences on the long-term hydrologic fluxes for each scenario. Once analysed from a future water resources perspective, the results will be

External Costs as Driving Forces of Land Use Changes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dirk Loehr

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Land conversion is often not carried out in a sustainable way. The loss of arable land and biodiversity, concern about food security and rising costs of infrastructure due to urban sprawl are just some of the problems under discussion. This paper compares Germany, China and Cambodia. The article points out that, despite huge differences in institutions and governance, unsustainable land use changes mostly have some patterns in common: The beneficiaries of land conversion are often well-organized actors, whereas the costs of land conversion are often shifted to poorly organized groups and to society as a whole. A sustainable land use policy has to look for a better coupling of benefits and costs of land use changes. In order to achieve this goal, the article suggests completing the planning law with a suitable economic framework.

Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM). I: Model intercomparison with current land use

Science.gov (United States)

Breuer, L.; Huisman, J.A.; Willems, P.; Bormann, H.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B.F.W.; Frede, H.-G.; Graff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Jakeman, A.J.; Kite, G.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Lindstrom, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Viney, N.R.

2009-01-01

This paper introduces the project on 'Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM)' that aims at investigating the envelope of predictions on changes in hydrological fluxes due to land use change. As part of a series of four papers, this paper outlines the motivation and setup of LUCHEM, and presents a model intercomparison for the present-day simulation results. Such an intercomparison provides a valuable basis to investigate the effects of different model structures on model predictions and paves the ground for the analysis of the performance of multi-model ensembles and the reliability of the scenario predictions in companion papers. In this study, we applied a set of 10 lumped, semi-lumped and fully distributed hydrological models that have been previously used in land use change studies to the low mountainous Dill catchment, Germany. Substantial differences in model performance were observed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies ranging from 0.53 to 0.92. Differences in model performance were attributed to (1) model input data, (2) model calibration and (3) the physical basis of the models. The models were applied with two sets of input data: an original and a homogenized data set. This homogenization of precipitation, temperature and leaf area index was performed to reduce the variation between the models. Homogenization improved the comparability of model simulations and resulted in a reduced average bias, although some variation in model data input remained. The effect of the physical differences between models on the long-term water balance was mainly attributed to differences in how models represent evapotranspiration. Semi-lumped and lumped conceptual models slightly outperformed the fully distributed and physically based models. This was attributed to the automatic model calibration typically used for this type of models. Overall, however, we conclude that there was no superior model if several measures of model

The investigation of spatiotemporal variations of land surface temperature based on land use changes using NDVI in southwest of Iran

Science.gov (United States)

Fathizad, Hassan; Tazeh, Mahdi; Kalantari, Saeideh; Shojaei, Saeed

2017-10-01

Land use changes can bring about changes in land surface temperature (LST) which is influenced by climatic conditions and physical characteristics of the land surface. In this study, spatiotemporal variations of land surface temperature have been investigated in the desert area of Dasht-e-Abbas, Ilam, based on a variety of land use changes. The investigated periods for the study include 1990, 2000 and 2010 using Landsat image data. First, in mapping land use we used the Fuzzy ARTMAP Neural Network Classification method followed by determination of the NDVI Index to estimate land surface temperature. The results show an increase in LST in areas where degradation, land use and land cover changes have occurred. In 1990, 2000 and 2010, the average land surface temperature of the Fair Rangelands was 26.72 °C, 30.06 °C and 30.95 °C, respectively. This rangeland has been reduced by about 5%. For poor rangelands, the average LSTs were 26.95, 32.83 and 34.49 Cº, respectively which had a 18% reduction. In 1990, 2000 and 2010, the average land surface temperatures of agricultural lands were 24.31 °C, 27.87 °C and 28.61 °C, respectively which has been an increasing trend. The reason can be attributed to changes in cropping patterns of the study area.

Biofuels and Land use in Sweden - An overview of land-use change effects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoeglund, J. [IVL Swedish Environmental Research Inst., Stockholm (Sweden); Ahlgren, S. [Lund Univ., Lund (Sweden); Grahn, M. [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden); Sundberg, C. [Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala (Sweden); and others

2013-09-01

Supported by policies, biofuel production has been continuously increasing worldwide during recent years owing to a scientific consensus that human-induced global warming is a reality and the need to reduce import dependency of fossil fuels. However, concerns have been raised that bio-fuels, often advocated as the future substitute for greenhouse gas (GHG) intensive fossil fuels, may cause negative effects on the climate and the environment. When assessing GHG emissions from biofuels, the production phase of the biofuel crop is essential since this is the phase in which most of the GHG emissions occur during the life cycle of the fuel (not accounting for biogenic CO{sub 2} from the tailpipe). Much research has been focusing on the GHG performance of biofuels, but there are also a range of other possible environmental effects of biofuel production, often linked to land use and land management. Changes in land use can result from a wide range of anthropogenic activities including agriculture and forestry management, livestock and biofuel production. Direct effects of land-use change (LUC) range from changes of carbon stock in standing biomass to biodiversity impacts and nutrient leakage. Beside the direct effects, indirect effects can influence other uses of land through market forces across countries and continents. These indirect effects are complex to measure and observe. This report provides an overview of a much debated issue: the connection between LUC and bio-fuel production and associated potential impacts on a wide range of aspects (i.e., soil chemistry, biodiversity, socio economics, climate change, and policy). The main purpose of the report is to give a broad overview of the literature on LUC impacts from biofuel production, not only taking into account the link between LUC and GHG, which has been addressed in many other studies. The report first presents a review of the literature in the different scientific areas related to LUC and biofuel production

Implementing land use change models in the developing world

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Le Roux, Alize

2013-07-01

Full Text Available recently adapted land use change models (Dyna-Clue and UrbanSIM) that have been successfully adapted to simulate future land use change policies in the various metro's across South-Africa. The presentation will focus on how these technologies together...

Change in agricultural land use constrains adaptation of national wildlife refuges to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Hamilton, Christopher M.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Radeloff, Volker C.; Plantinga, Andrew J.; Heglund, Patricia J.; Martinuzzi, Sebastian; Pidgeon, Anna M.

2015-01-01

Land-use change around protected areas limits their ability to conserve biodiversity by altering ecological processes such as natural hydrologic and disturbance regimes, facilitating species invasions, and interfering with dispersal of organisms. This paper informs USA National Wildlife Refuge System conservation planning by predicting future land-use change on lands within 25 km distance of 461 refuges in the USA using an econometric model. The model contained two differing policy scenarios, namely a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario and a ‘pro-agriculture’ scenario. Regardless of scenario, by 2051, forest cover and urban land use were predicted to increase around refuges, while the extent of range and pasture was predicted to decrease; cropland use decreased under the business-as-usual scenario, but increased under the pro-agriculture scenario. Increasing agricultural land value under the pro-agriculture scenario slowed an expected increase in forest around refuges, and doubled the rate of range and pasture loss. Intensity of land-use change on lands surrounding refuges differed by regions. Regional differences among scenarios revealed that an understanding of regional and local land-use dynamics and management options was an essential requirement to effectively manage these conserved lands. Such knowledge is particularly important given the predicted need to adapt to a changing global climate.

Riparian responses to extreme climate and land-use change scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Fernandes, Maria Rosário; Segurado, Pedro; Jauch, Eduardo; Ferreira, Maria Teresa

2016-11-01

Climate change will induce alterations in the hydrological and landscape patterns with effects on riparian ecotones. In this study we assess the combined effect of an extreme climate and land-use change scenario on riparian woody structure and how this will translate into a future risk of riparian functionality loss. The study was conducted in the Tâmega catchment of the Douro basin. Boosted Regression Trees (BRTs) were used to model two riparian landscape indicators related with the degree of connectivity (Mean Width) and complexity (Area Weighted Mean Patch Fractal Dimension). Riparian data were extracted by planimetric analysis of high spatial-resolution Word Imagery Layer (ESRI). Hydrological, climatic and land-use variables were obtained from available datasets and generated with process-based modeling using current climate data (2008-2014), while also considering the high-end RCP8.5 climate-change and "Icarus" socio-economic scenarios for the 2046-2065 time slice. Our results show that hydrological and land-use changes strongly influence future projections of riparian connectivity and complexity, albeit to diverse degrees and with differing effects. A harsh reduction in average flows may impair riparian zones while an increase in extreme rain events may benefit connectivity by promoting hydrologic dynamics with the surrounding floodplains. The expected increase in broad-leaved woodlands and mixed forests may enhance the riparian galleries by reducing the agricultural pressure on the area in the vicinity of the river. According to our results, 63% of river segments in the Tâmega basin exhibited a moderate risk of functionality loss, 16% a high risk, and 21% no risk. Weaknesses and strengths of the method are highlighted and results are discussed based on a resilience perspective with regard to riparian ecosystems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Including land use, land-use change, and forestry in future climate change, agreements. Thinking outside the box

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Benndorf, R. [Federal Environment Agency, Bismarckplatz 1, D-1419 Berlin (Germany); Federici, S.; Somogyi, Z. [Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Via Enrico Fermi 1, I-21020 Ispra (Italy); Forner, C. [Center for International Forestry Research CIFOR, Jalan CIFOR Situ Gede, Bogor Barat 16680 (Indonesia); Pena, N. [Pew Center on Global Climate Change, 2101 Wilson Boulevard, Arlington, VA 22201 (United States); Rametsteiner, E. [IIASA, A-2361 Laxenburg (Austria); Sanz, M.J. [Fundacion CEAM, Charles H. Darwin 14, S-46980 Paterna, Valencia (Spain)

2007-06-15

This paper presents a framework that encompasses a full range of options for including land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) within future agreements under the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The intent is to provide options that can address the broad range of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals as well as to bring the broadest possible range of nations into undertaking mitigation efforts. We suggest that the approach taken for the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period is only one within a much larger universe of possible approaches. This larger universe includes partially or completely 'de-linking' LULUCF commitments from those in other sectors, and allowing commitments specified in terms other than tonnes of greenhouse gases. Such approaches may provide clarity and transparency concerning the role of the various sectors in the agreements and encourage participation in agreements by a more inclusive, diverse set of countries, resulting in a more effective use of LULUCF in addressing climate change.

Including land use, land-use change, and forestry in future climate change, agreements: thinking outside the box

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Benndorf, R. [Federal Environment Agency, Bismarckplatz 1, D-1419 Berlin (Germany); Federici, S. [Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Via Enrico Fermi 1, I-21020 Ispra (Italy); Forner, C. [Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), Jalan CIFOR Situ Gede, Bogor Barat 16680 (Indonesia); Pena, N. [Pew Center on Global Climate Change, 2101 Wilson Boulevard, Arlington, VA 22201 (United States)]. E-mail: penan@pewclimate.org; Rametsteiner, E. [IIASA, A-2361 Laxenburg (Austria); Sanz, M.J. [Fundacion CEAM, Charles H. Darwin 14, S-46980 Paterna, Valencia (Spain); Somogyi, Z. [Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Via Enrico Fermi 1, I-21020 Ispra (Italy)

2007-06-15

This paper presents a framework that encompasses a full range of options for including land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) within future agreements under the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The intent is to provide options that can address the broad range of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals as well as to bring the broadest possible range of nations into undertaking mitigation efforts. We suggest that the approach taken for the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period is only one within a much larger universe of possible approaches. This larger universe includes partially or completely 'de-linking' LULUCF commitments from those in other sectors, and allowing commitments specified in terms other than tonnes of greenhouse gases. Such approaches may provide clarity and transparency concerning the role of the various sectors in the agreements and encourage participation in agreements by a more inclusive, diverse set of countries, resulting in a more effective use of LULUCF in addressing climate change.

Including land use, land-use change, and forestry in future climate change, agreements: thinking outside the box

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benndorf, R.; Federici, S.; Forner, C.; Pena, N.; Rametsteiner, E.; Sanz, M.J.; Somogyi, Z.

2007-01-01

This paper presents a framework that encompasses a full range of options for including land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) within future agreements under the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The intent is to provide options that can address the broad range of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals as well as to bring the broadest possible range of nations into undertaking mitigation efforts. We suggest that the approach taken for the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period is only one within a much larger universe of possible approaches. This larger universe includes partially or completely 'de-linking' LULUCF commitments from those in other sectors, and allowing commitments specified in terms other than tonnes of greenhouse gases. Such approaches may provide clarity and transparency concerning the role of the various sectors in the agreements and encourage participation in agreements by a more inclusive, diverse set of countries, resulting in a more effective use of LULUCF in addressing climate change

Scenario-Based Analysis on the Structural Change of Land Uses in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qian Xu

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Land Use/Land Cover change (LUCC is a key aspect of global environmental change, which has a significant impact on climate change. In the background of increasing global warming resulting from greenhouse effect, to understand the impact of land use change on climate change is necessary and meaningful. In this study, we choose China as the study area and explore the possible land use change trends based on the AgLU module and ERB module of global change assessment model (GCAM model and Global Change Assessment Model. We design three scenarios based on socioeconomic development and simulated the corresponding structure change of land use according to the three scenarios with different parameters. Then we simulate the different emission of CO2 under different scenarios based on the simulation results of structure change of land use. At last, we choose the most suitable scenario that could control the emission of CO2 best and obtain the relatively better land use structure change for adaption of climate change. Through this research we can provide a theoretical basis for the future land use planning to adapt to climate change.

Changes in land use and housing on resource lands in Washington state, 1976–2006

Science.gov (United States)

Andrew N. Gray; David L. Azuma; Gary J. Lettman; Joel L. Thompson; Neil McKay

2013-01-01

Changes in human land use patterns have wide-ranging social, economic and ecological implications. How urban and residential areas develop to accommodate population increase can have varying effects on forest and agricultural production from resource lands. Estimates of the amount and type of land use change differ substantially with definitions and analytical methods...

Effects of Land Use Changes on the Ecosystem Service Values of Coastal Wetlands

Science.gov (United States)

Camacho-Valdez, Vera; Ruiz-Luna, Arturo; Ghermandi, Andrea; Berlanga-Robles, César A.; Nunes, Paulo A. L. D.

2014-10-01

Changes in the coastal landscape of Southern Sinaloa (Mexico), between 2000 and 2010, were analyzed to relate spatial variations in wetlands extent with the provision and economic value of the ecosystem services (ES). Remote sensing techniques applied to Landsat TM imagery were used to evaluate land use/land cover changes while the value transfer method was used to assess the value of ES by land cover category. Five wetland types and other four land covers were found as representative of the coastal landscape. Findings reveal a 14 % decrease in the saltmarsh/forested mangrove area and a 12 % increase in the area of shrimp pond aquaculture (artificial wetland) during the study period. ES valuation shows that the total value flow increased by 9 % from 215 to 233 million (2007 USD) during the 10-year period. This increase is explained as result of the high value worldwide assigned to saltmarsh. We recognize limitations in the transfer-based approach in quantifying and mapping ES values in the region, but this method provides with value estimates spatially defined, and also provides some guidance in the preliminary screening of policies and projected development in the context of data-scarce regions.

Estimating the impact of land use change on surface energy partition based on the Noah model

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Shaohui; Su, Hongbo; Zhan, Jinyan

2014-03-01

It is well known that land use has an important impact on surface energy partition. It is important to study the evolving trend of the partition of sensible heat flux (SHF) and latent heat flux (LHF) from the net radiance (NR) with land use change in the context of regional climate changes. In this paper, we studied the response of energy partition to land use using the Noah model. First, the Noah model simulation results of SHF and LHF between 2003 and 2005 were comprehensively validated using the observation data from the Changbai Mountain Station, the Xilinhot Station, and the Yucheng Station. The study domains represent three different types of land use change: excessive deforestation, grassland degeneration aggravation, and groundwater level decline, respectively. The study period was subsequently extended from 2015 through 2034, using four projected land use maps and forcing data from Princeton (2000-2004). The simulation results show that during the land use conversions, the annual average of LHF drops by 10.7%, rises by 10.1%, and drops by 11.5% for the Changbai Mountain, Inner Mongolia, and Northern China stations, respectively while the annual average of SHF rises by 10.6%, drops by 10.1%, and drops by 11.3% for the three areas.

Shifts in the microbial community structure explain the response of soil respiration to land-use change but not to climate warming

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nazaries, Loïc; Tottey, William; Robinson, Lucinda

2015-01-01

Soil stores more carbon (C) than plants and atmosphere combined and it is vulnerable to increased microbial respiration under projected global changes including land-use change and future climate scenarios (mainly elevated temperature). Land-use change is known to have a direct impact on soil...... of this feedback response of Rs to global change. To identify the mechanisms of Rs response to land-use change and climate warming, we first investigated Rs from different land use types. Soil respiration was estimated seasonally from four different Scottish land uses: moorland, birch woodland, grassland and pine......, estimated by Multiplex Terminal-Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism (MT-RFLP) and 454 pyrosequencing, was significantly different under each land use type. A strong correlation of Rs with soil properties (pH, inorganic N, C:N ratio and moisture) and with microbial community structure was identified...

Effect of Climate and Agricultural Land Use Changes on UK Feed Barley Production and Food Security to the 2050s

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David O. Yawson

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Currently, the UK has a high self-sufficiency rate in barley production. This paper assessed the effects of projected climate and land use changes on feed barley production and, consequently, on meat supply in the UK from the 2030s to the 2050s. Total barley production under projected land use and climate changes ranged from 4.6 million tons in the 2030s to 9.0 million tons in the 2050s. From these, the projected feed barley supply ranged from approximately 2.3 to 4.6 million tons from the 2030s to the 2050s, respectively. The results indicate that while UK spring barley production will thrive under, and benefit from climate change, total land area allocated to barley production will ultimately determine self-sufficiency. Without expansion in the area of land and/or further significant increases in yields, the UK may face large deficits in domestic feed barley production and, for that matter, meat supply in the future. Hence, agricultural and food security policy needs to consider, principally, the effect of agricultural land use change on key crops, such as barley. Even though the UK can import feed barley or meat to address the deficits observed in this study, the question that needs to be addressed is where all that import will come from.

Climate and land-use change in wetlands: A dedication

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Middleton, Beth A.

2017-01-01

Future climate and land-use change may wreak havoc on wetlands, with the potential to erode their values as harbors for biota and providers of human services. Wetlands are important to protect, particularly because these provide a variety of ecosystem services including wildlife habitat, water purification, flood storage, and storm protection (Mitsch, Bernal, and Hernandez 2015). Without healthy wetlands, future generations may become increasingly less in harmony with the sustainability of the Earth. To this end, the thematic feature on climate and land-use change in wetlands explores the critical role of wetlands in the overall health and well-being of humans and our planet. Our special feature contributes to the understanding of the idea that the health of natural ecosystems and humans are linked and potentially stressed by climate change and land-use change (Horton and Lo 2015; McDonald 2015). In particular, this special issue considers the important role of wetlands in the environment, and how land-use and environmental change might affect them in the future.

The effects of land use change and precipitation change on direct runoff in Wei River watershed, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, Leihua; Xiong, Lihua; Lall, Upmanu; Wang, Jiwu

2015-01-01

The principles and degrees to which land use change and climate change affect direct runoff generation are distinctive. In this paper, based on the MODIS data of land use in 1992 and 2003, the impacts of land use and climate change are explored using the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) method under two defined scenarios. In the first scenario, the precipitation is assumed to be constant, and thus the consequence of land use change could be evaluated. In the second scenario, the condition of land use is assumed to be constant, so the influence only induced by climate change could be assessed. Combining the conclusions of two scenarios, the effects of land use and climate change on direct runoff volume can be separated. At last, it is concluded: for the study basin, the land use types which have the greatest effect on direct runoff generation are agricultural land and water body. For the big sub basins, the effect of land use change is generally larger than that of climate change; for middle and small sub basins, most of them suffer more from land use change than from climate change.

Land and Forest Management by Land Use/ Land Cover Analysis and Change Detection Using Remote Sensing and GIS

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Ankana

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Remote sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS are the most effective tools in spatial data analysis. Natural resources like land, forest and water, these techniques have proved a valuable source of information generation as well as in the management and planning purposes. This study aims to suggest possible land and forest management strategies in Chakia tahsil based on land use and land cover analysis and the changing pattern observed during the last ten years. The population of Chakia tahsil is mainly rural in nature. The study has revealed that the northern part of the region, which offers for the settlement and all the agricultural practices constitutes nearly 23.48% and is a dead level plain, whereas the southern part, which constitute nearly 76.6% of the region is characterized by plateau and is covered with forest. The southern plateau rises abruptly from the northern alluvial plain with a number of escarpments. The contour line of 100 m mainly demarcates the boundary between plateau and plain. The plateau zone is deeply dissected and highly rugged terrain. The resultant topography comprises of a number of mesas and isolated hillocks showing elevation differences from 150 m to 385 m above mean sea level. Being rugged terrain in the southern part, nowadays human encroachment are taking place for more land for the cultivation. The changes were well observed in the land use and land cover in the study region. A large part of fallow land and open forest were converted into cultivated land.

Impact of land use change on the land atmosphere carbon flux of South and South East Asia: A Synthesis of Dynamic Vegetation Model Results

Science.gov (United States)

Cervarich, M.; Shu, S.; Jain, A. K.; Poulter, B.; Stocker, B.; Arneth, A.; Viovy, N.; Kato, E.; Wiltshire, A.; Koven, C.; Sitch, S.; Zeng, N.; Friedlingstein, P.

2015-12-01

Understanding our present day carbon cycle and possible solutions to recent increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide is dependent upon quantifying the terrestrial carbon budget. Currently, global land cover and land use change is estimated to emit 0.9 PgC yr-1 compared to emissions due to fossil fuel combustion and cement production of 8.4 PgC yr-1. South and Southeast Asia (India, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Burma, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, Philippines, Indonesia, Pakistan, Myanmar, and Singapore) is a region of rapid land cover and land use change due to the continuous development of agriculture, deforestation, reforestation, afforestation, and the increased demand of land for people to live. In this study, we synthesize outputs of nine models participated in Global Carbon Budget Project to identify the carbon budget of South and southeast Asia, diagnose the contribution of land cover and land use change to carbon emissions and assess areas of uncertainty in the suite of models. Uncertainty is determined using the standard deviation and the coefficient of variation of net ecosystem exchange and its component parts. Results show the region's terrestrial biosphere was a source of carbon emissions from the 1980 to the early 1990s. During the same time period, land cover and land use change increasingly contributed to carbon emission. In the most recent two decades, the region became a carbon sink since emission due to land cover land use changes. Spatially, the greatest total emissions occurred in the tropical forest of Southeast Asia. Additionally, this is the subregion with the greatest uncertainty and greatest biomass. Model uncertainty is shown to be proportional to total biomass. The atmospheric impacts of ENSO are shown to suppress the net biosphere productivity in South and Southeast Asia leading to years of increased carbon emissions.

Forecasting land cover change impacts on drinking water treatment costs in Minneapolis, Minnesota

Science.gov (United States)

Woznicki, S. A.; Wickham, J.

2017-12-01

Source protection is a critical aspect of drinking water treatment. The benefits of protecting source water quality in reducing drinking water treatment costs are clear. However, forecasting the impacts of environmental change on source water quality and its potential to influence future treatment processes is lacking. The drinking water treatment plant in Minneapolis, MN has recognized that land cover change threatens water quality in their source watershed, the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB). Over 1,000 km2 of forests, wetlands, and grasslands in the UMRB were lost to agriculture from 2008-2013. This trend, coupled with a projected population increase of one million people in Minnesota by 2030, concerns drinking water treatment plant operators in Minneapolis with respect to meeting future demand for clean water in the UMRB. The objective of this study is to relate land cover change (forest and wetland loss, agricultural expansion, urbanization) to changes in treatment costs for the Minneapolis, MN drinking water utility. To do this, we first developed a framework to determine the relationship between land cover change and water quality in the context of recent historical changes and projected future changes in land cover. Next we coupled a watershed model, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to projections of land cover change from the FOREcasting SCEnarios of Land-use Change (FORE-SCE) model for the mid-21st century. Using historical Minneapolis drinking water treatment data (chemical usage and costs), source water quality in the UMRB was linked to changes in treatment requirements as a function of projected future land cover change. These analyses will quantify the value of natural landscapes in protecting drinking water quality and future treatment processes requirements. In addition, our study provides the Minneapolis drinking water utility with information critical to their planning and capital improvement process.

An analysis of effect of land use change on river flow variability

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Tao; Liu, Yuting; Yang, Xinyue; Wang, Xiang

2018-02-01

Land use scenario analysis, SWAT model, flow characteristic indices and flow variability technology were used to analyze the effect of land use quantity and location change on river flow. Results showed that river flow variation caused by land use change from forest to crop was larger than that caused by land use change from forest to grass; Land use change neither from upstream to downstream nor from downstream to upstream had little effect on annual average discharge and maximum annual average discharge. But it had obvious effect on maximum daily discharge; Land use change which occurred in upstream could lead to producing larger magnitude flood more easily; Land use change from forest to crop or grass could increase the number of large magnitude floods and their total duration. And it also could increase the number of small magnitude floods but decrease their duration.

Land use change in China: implication for human-environmental interactions

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cui, Xuefeng

2013-04-01

China's land use has undergone significant changes in history due to the continuous transformations caused by natural and human factors. This paper will review the history of land use changes in China during the past 300 years to identify the major transition periods and discuss the implications for environmental management. Population changes are found to be the primary driving factor in cropland expansion and deforestation in history for a long period. In 1950s, after the foundation of the Republic of China, all land use types experience a huge transition showing the determination of socio-economic policies in modern time after agricultural intensifications. Several current environmental policy in China will also be discussed to explore the effect of policy on land use changes.

Hydrological impacts of global land cover change and human water use

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J. H. C. Bosmans

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Human impacts on global terrestrial hydrology have been accelerating during the 20th century. These human impacts include the effects of reservoir building and human water use, as well as land cover change. To date, many global studies have focussed on human water use, but only a few focus on or include the impact of land cover change. Here we use PCR-GLOBWB, a combined global hydrological and water resources model, to assess the impacts of land cover change as well as human water use globally in different climatic zones. Our results show that land cover change has a strong effect on the global hydrological cycle, on the same order of magnitude as the effect of human water use (applying irrigation, abstracting water, for industrial use for example, including reservoirs, etc.. When globally averaged, changing the land cover from that of 1850 to that of 2000 increases discharge through reduced evapotranspiration. The effect of land cover change shows large spatial variability in magnitude and sign of change depending on, for example, the specific land cover change and climate zone. Overall, land cover effects on evapotranspiration are largest for the transition of tall natural vegetation to crops in energy-limited equatorial and warm temperate regions. In contrast, the inclusion of irrigation, water abstraction and reservoirs reduces global discharge through enhanced evaporation over irrigated areas and reservoirs as well as through water consumption. Hence, in some areas land cover change and water distribution both reduce discharge, while in other areas the effects may partly cancel out. The relative importance of both types of impacts varies spatially across climatic zones. From this study we conclude that land cover change needs to be considered when studying anthropogenic impacts on water resources.

Land-Use Change and the Billion Ton 2016 Resource Assessment: Understanding the Effects of Land Management on Environmental Indicators

Science.gov (United States)

Kline, K. L.; Eaton, L. M.; Efroymson, R.; Davis, M. R.; Dunn, J.; Langholtz, M. H.

2016-12-01

The federal government, led by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), quantified potential U.S. biomass resources for expanded production of renewable energy and bioproducts in the 2016 Billion-Ton Report: Advancing Domestic Resources for a Thriving Bioeconomy (BT16) (DOE 2016). Volume 1 of the report provides analysis of projected supplies from 2015 to2040. Volume 2 (forthcoming) evaluates changes in environmental indicators for water quality and quantity, carbon, air quality, and biodiversity associated with production scenarios in BT16 volume 1. This presentation will review land-use allocations under the projected biomass production scenarios and the changes in land management that are implied, including drivers of direct and indirect LUC. National and global concerns such as deforestation and displacement of food production are addressed. The choice of reference scenario, input parameters and constraints (e.g., regarding land classes, availability, and productivity) drive LUC results in any model simulation and are reviewed to put BT16 impacts into context. The principal LUC implied in BT16 supply scenarios involves the transition of 25-to-47 million acres (net) from annual crops in 2015 baseline to perennial cover by 2040 under the base case and 3% yield growth case, respectively. We conclude that clear definitions of land parameters and effects are essential to assess LUC. A lack of consistency in parameters and outcomes of historic LUC analysis in the U.S. underscores the need for science-based approaches.

A land-use and land-cover modeling strategy to support a national assessment of carbon stocks and fluxes

Science.gov (United States)

Sohl, Terry L.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Sayler, Kristi L.; Bennett, Stacie; Bouchard, Michelle; Reker, Ryan R.; Hawbaker, Todd; Wein, Anne; Liu, Shu-Guang; Kanengieter, Ronald; Acevedo, William

2012-01-01

Changes in land use, land cover, disturbance regimes, and land management have considerable influence on carbon and greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes within ecosystems. Through targeted land-use and land-management activities, ecosystems can be managed to enhance carbon sequestration and mitigate fluxes of other GHGs. National-scale, comprehensive analyses of carbon sequestration potential by ecosystem are needed, with a consistent, nationally applicable land-use and land-cover (LULC) modeling framework a key component of such analyses. The U.S. Geological Survey has initiated a project to analyze current and projected future GHG fluxes by ecosystem and quantify potential mitigation strategies. We have developed a unique LULC modeling framework to support this work. Downscaled scenarios consistent with IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) were constructed for U.S. ecoregions, and the FORE-SCE model was used to spatially map the scenarios. Results for a prototype demonstrate our ability to model LULC change and inform a biogeochemical modeling framework for analysis of subsequent GHG fluxes. The methodology was then successfully used to model LULC change for four IPCC SRES scenarios for an ecoregion in the Great Plains. The scenario-based LULC projections are now being used to analyze potential GHG impacts of LULC change across the U.S.

Theorizing Land Cover and Land Use Changes: The Case of Tropical Deforestation

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Walker, Robert

2004-01-01

This article addresses land-cover and land-use dynamics from the perspective of regional science and economic geography. It first provides an account of the so-called spatially explicit model, which has emerged in recent years as a key empirical approach to the issue. The article uses this discussion as a springboard to evaluate the potential utility of von Thuenen to the discourse on land-cover and land-use change. After identifying shortcomings of current theoretical approaches to land use in mainly urban models, the article filters a discussion of deforestation through the lens of bid-rent and assesses its effectiveness in helping us comprehend the destruction of tropical forest in the Amazon basin. The article considers the adjustments that would have to be made to existing theory to make it more useful to the empirical issues.

Attribution of projected changes in summertime US ozone and PM2.5 concentrations to global changes

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A. Guenther

2009-02-01

Full Text Available The impact that changes in future climate, anthropogenic US emissions, background tropospheric composition, and land-use have on summertime regional US ozone and PM2.5 concentrations is examined through a matrix of downscaled regional air quality simulations, where each set of simulations was conducted for five months of July climatology, using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ model. Projected regional scale changes in meteorology due to climate change under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC A2 scenario are derived through the downscaling of Parallel Climate Model (PCM output with the MM5 meteorological model. Future chemical boundary conditions are obtained through downscaling of MOZART-2 (Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers, version 2.4 global chemical model simulations based on the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES A2 emissions scenario. Projected changes in US anthropogenic emissions are estimated using the EPA Economic Growth Analysis System (EGAS, and changes in land-use are projected using data from the Community Land Model (CLM and the Spatially Explicit Regional Growth Model (SERGOM. For July conditions, changes in chemical boundary conditions are found to have the largest impact (+5 ppbv on average daily maximum 8-h (DM8H ozone. Changes in US anthropogenic emissions are projected to increase average DM8H ozone by +3 ppbv. Land-use changes are projected to have a significant influence on regional air quality due to the impact these changes have on biogenic hydrocarbon emissions. When climate changes and land-use changes are considered simultaneously, the average DM8H ozone decreases due to a reduction in biogenic VOC emissions (−2.6 ppbv. Changes in average 24-h (A24-h PM2.5 concentrations are dominated by projected changes in anthropogenic emissions (+3 μg m−3, while changes in chemical boundary conditions have a negligible effect. On average, climate change reduces A24-h PM2

Impacts of land-use change on the water cycle of urban areas within the Upper Great Lakes drainage basin

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Bowling, L. C.; Cherkauer, K. A.; Pijanowski, B. C.; Niyogi, D.

2006-12-01

Urbanization is altering the global landscape at an unprecedented rate. This form of land cover/land-use change (LCLUC) can significantly reduce infiltration and runoff response times, and alter heat and water vapor fluxes, which can further alter surface-forced regional circulation patterns and modulate precipitation volume and intensity. Spatial patterns of future LCLUC are projected using the Land Transformation Model (LTM), enhanced to incorporate dynamic landcover, economics and policy using Bayesian Belief Networks (LTM- BBN). Different land use scenarios predicted by the LTM-BBN as well as a pre-development scenario are represented through the Unified Noah Land Surface Model (LSM) with an enhanced urban canopy model, embedded in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The coupled WRF-Noah LSM model will be used to investigate the connections between land-use, hydrometeorology and the atmosphere, through analysis of water and energy balances over several urbanized watersheds within the Upper Great Lakes region. Preliminary results focus on a single watershed, the White River in Indiana, which includes the city of Indianapolis. Coupled WRF-Noah simulations made using pre and post-development land use maps provide a 7 year climatology of convective storm morphology around the urban center. Precipitation and other meteorological variables from the WRF-Noah simulations are used to drive simulations of the White River watershed using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrologic model. The VIC model has been modified to represent urban areas and has been calibrated for modern flow regimes in the White River watershed. Pre- and post-development VIC simulations are used to assess the impact of Indianapolis area infiltration changes. Finally, VIC model simulations utilizing projected land use change from 2005 through 2040 for the Indianapolis metropolitan area explore the magnitude of future hydrologic change, especially peak flow response

Drivers and Implications of Land Use and Land Cover Change in the ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This study explores the major drivers of Land-use/Land-cover (LULC) dynamics and the observed environmental degradation as a response to these changes in the Modjo watershed, central Ethiopia. Data for this study were generated through household survey and supplemented with remotely sensed image interpretation ...

Hydrological impacts of land use change in three diverse South African catchments

Science.gov (United States)

Warburton, Michele L.; Schulze, Roland E.; Jewitt, Graham P. W.

2012-01-01

SummaryIn order to meet society's needs for water, food, fuel and fibre, the earth's natural land cover and land use have been significantly changed. These changes have impacted on the hydrological responses and thus available water resources, as the hydrological responses of a catchment are dependent upon, and sensitive to, changes in the land use. The degree of anthropogenic modification of the land cover, the intensity of the land use changes and location of land uses within a catchment determines the extent to which land uses influences hydrological response of a catchment. The objective of the study was to improve understanding of the complex interactions between hydrological response and land use to aid in water resources planning. To achieve this, a hydrological model, viz. the ACRU agrohydrological model, which adequately represents hydrological processes and is sensitive to land use changes, was used to generate hydrological responses from three diverse, complex and operational South African catchments under both current land use and a baseline land cover. The selected catchments vary with respect to both land use and climate. The semi-arid sub-tropical Luvuvhu catchment has a large proportion of subsistence agriculture and informal residential areas, whereas in the winter rainfall Upper Breede catchment the primary land uses are commercial orchards and vineyards. The sub-humid Mgeni catchment is dominated by commercial plantation forestry in the upper reaches, commercial sugarcane and urban areas in the middle reaches, with the lower reaches dominated by urban areas. The hydrological responses of the selected catchments to land use change were complex. Results showed that the contributions of different land uses to the streamflow generated from a catchment is not proportional to the relative area of that land use, and the relative contribution of the land use to the catchment streamflow varies with the mean annual rainfall of the catchment. Furthermore

Land-Cover Change in the East Central Texas Plains, 1973-2000

Science.gov (United States)

Karstensen, Krista A.

2009-01-01

Project Background: The Geographic Analysis and Monitoring (GAM) Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Land Cover Trends project is focused on understanding the rates, trends, causes, and consequences of contemporary U.S. land-use and land-cover change. The objectives of the study are to: (1) develop a comprehensive methodology for using sampling and change analysis techniques and Landsat Multispectral Scanner (MSS) and Thematic Mapper (TM) data for measuring regional land-cover change across the United States, (2) characterize the types, rates and temporal variability of change for a 30-year period, (3) document regional driving forces and consequences of change, and (4) prepare a national synthesis of land-cover change (Loveland and others, 1999). Using the 1999 Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Level III ecoregions derived from Omernik (1987) as the geographic framework, geospatial data collected between 1973 and 2000 were processed and analyzed to characterize ecosystem responses to land-use changes. The 27-year study period was divided into five temporal periods: 1973-1980, 1980-1986, 1986-1992, 1992-2000, and 1973-2000. General land-cover classes such as water, developed, grassland/shrubland, and agriculture for these periods were interpreted from Landsat MSS, TM, and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus imagery to categorize land-cover change and evaluate using a modified Anderson Land-Use Land-Cover Classification System for image interpretation. The interpretation of these land-cover classes complement the program objective of looking at land-use change with cover serving as a surrogate for land use. The land-cover change rates are estimated using a stratified, random sampling of 10-kilometer (km) by 10-km blocks allocated within each ecoregion. For each sample block, satellite images are used to interpret land-cover change for the five time periods previously mentioned. Additionally, historical aerial photographs from similar timeframes and other