[Outcomes evaluation of the school staff health promotion project].

Science.gov (United States)

Woynarowska-Sołdan, Magdalena

This article presents selected outcomes of a 3-year project "Health promotion of school staff in health-promoting schools," as well as the achievements and difficulties in its implementation. The research was conducted on 644 teachers and 226 members of non-teaching staff in 21 schools. The method involved opinion poll and authored questionnaires. A 2-part model of outcome evaluation was developed. Most participants appreciated the changes that took place within the 3 years of the project implementation. These included the improved level of their knowledge about health, health-conducive behaviors (62-93%) and the physical and social environment of the school (50-92%). Changes were more frequently acknowledged by teachers. About 80% of the participants had a positive attitude to the project, but only 20% assessed their involvement as considerable. About 90% believed that health promotion activities should be continued. According to the project leaders, insufficient support and financial resources, and difficulties in motivating school employees, particularly the nonteaching staff, to undertake health-promotion activities were the major handicaps in the project implementation. The project outcomes can be assessed as satisfying. They revealed that it is posssible to initiate health promotion among school staff. This can be effective on condition that participants are motivated, actively engaged in the project and supported by the head teacher and the local community. Necessarily, school leaders should be prepared to promote health among adults and to gain support from school policy decision makers, school administration, trade unions and universities involved in teacher training. Med Pr 2016;67(2):187-200. This work is available in Open Access model and licensed under a CC BY-NC 3.0 PL license.

Outcomes evaluation of the school staff health promotion project

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Magdalena Woynarowska-Sołdan

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Background: This article presents selected outcomes of a 3-year project “Health promotion of school staff in health-promoting schools,” as well as the achievements and difficulties in its implementation. Material and Methods: The research was conducted on 644 teachers and 226 members of non-teaching staff in 21 schools. The method involved opinion poll and authored questionnaires. A 2-part model of outcome evaluation was developed. Results: Most participants appreciated the changes that took place within the 3 years of the project implementation. These included the improved level of their knowledge about health, health-conducive behaviors (62–93% and the physical and social environment of the school (50–92%. Changes were more frequently acknowledged by teachers. About 80% of the participants had a positive attitude to the project, but only 20% assessed their involvement as considerable. About 90% believed that health promotion activities should be continued. According to the project leaders, insufficient support and financial resources, and difficulties in motivating school employees, particularly the nonteaching staff, to undertake health-promotion activities were the major handicaps in the project implementation. Conclusions: The project outcomes can be assessed as satisfying. They revealed that it is posssible to initiate health promotion among school staff. This can be effective on condition that participants are motivated, actively engaged in the project and supported by the head teacher and the local community. Necessarily, school leaders should be prepared to promote health among adults and to gain support from school policy decision makers, school administration, trade unions and universities involved in teacher training. Med Pr 2016;67(2:187–200

Projection of Korean Probable Maximum Precipitation under Future Climate Change Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Okjeong Lee

2016-01-01

Full Text Available According to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, air temperature and humidity of the future are expected to gradually increase over the current. In this study, future PMPs are estimated by using future dew point temperature projection data which are obtained from RCM data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration. First, bias included in future dew point temperature projection data which is provided on a daily basis is corrected through a quantile-mapping method. Next, using a scale-invariance technique, 12-hour duration 100-year return period dew point temperatures which are essential input data for PMPs estimation are estimated from bias-corrected future dew point temperature data. After estimating future PMPs, it can be shown that PMPs in all future climate change scenarios (AR5 RCP2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5 are very likely to increase.

Current status of RCA projects and strategies for future implementation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Kyoung Pyo; Lee, Jeong Kong

1998-12-01

This report is intended to provide basic overall information about ways to promote technical cooperation within the framework of RCA to accelerate and coordinate cooperative activities in nuclear science and technology in Asia and the Pacific region through a thorough review on the current status and through suggesting future implementation strategies. The contents of this report include an overall introduction of RCA, guidelines and operating rules for RCA programmes, current status and future plans for RCA projects as well as the RCA vision for the next 25 years. By reviewing the current status and future implementation strategies for RCA projects, it will help to set up a national nuclear policy aimed at seeking maximum benefits from participation in RCA projects and to implement programmes for nuclear cooperation with Asian-Pacific countries. It is expected that as a lead country for the energy sector, which is one of five thematic areas for the year 1999 - 2000 cycle programmes, Korea will continue to make significant contributions towards the implementation of RCA programmes in the future. With this report, we plan to keep up with future developments as well as implement an effective cooperation with the countries in the region so that the opinion of Korea, one of the nuclear advanced countries in the region, can be fully reflected in the establishment of future plans for RCA programmes. (author). 3 refs., 5 tabs., 1 fig

A review of the possible future HEP Accelerator Projects

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2010-01-01

The review, as already invited for presentation at the recent International Conference on High Energy Physics (ICHEP2010), covers all accelerator projects presently envisaged for HEP in the near and mid-term future. After a brief description of the major motivation, issues and necessary R&D of each project, it specially emphasizes the synergies between the different projects and their R&D issues, pointing out their complementarities and the efficient collaborative approach to address them. It finally summarizes the relative schedule of the various projects in their different phases, pointing out their global interdependence.

Space Projects: Improvements Needed in Selecting Future Projects for Private Financing

Science.gov (United States)

1990-01-01

The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and NASA jointly selected seven projects for commercialization to reduce NASA's fiscal year 1990 budget request and to help achieve the goal of increasing private sector involvement in space. However, the efforts to privately finance these seven projects did not increase the commercial sector's involvement in space to the extent desired. The General Accounting Office (GAO) determined that the projects selected were not a fair test of the potential of increasing commercial investment in space at an acceptable cost to the government, primarily because the projects were not properly screened. That is, neither their suitability for commercialization nor the economic consequences of seeking private financing for them were adequately evaluated before selection. Evaluations and market tests done after selection showed that most of the projects were not viable candidates for private financing. GAO concluded that projects should not be removed from NASA's budget for commercial development until after careful screening has been done to determine whether adequate commercial demand exists, development risks are commercially acceptable and private financing is found or judged to be highly likely, and the cost effectiveness of such a decision is acceptable. Premature removal of projects from NASA's budget ultimately can cause project delays and increased costs when unsuccessful commercialization candidates must be returned to the budget. NASA also needs to ensure appropriate comparisons of government and private financing options for future commercialization projects.

Costing Future Complex and Novel Projects

Science.gov (United States)

2016-04-30

Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (DSTL) is reported. The work involves pioneering data collection, analysis, and tool development to support... philosophy of the work and future prospects for its wider application. Summary The United Kingdom National Audit Office Major Projects Report 2014 states...the work will be in tackling variety in the data collected, one of the “3 Vs ” of Big Data. The outline programme is shown in Figure 2. Programme

Calculation Method for the Projection of Future Spent Nuclear Fuel Discharges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

B. McLeod

2002-01-01

This report describes the calculation method developed for the projection of future utility spent nuclear fuel (SNF) discharges in regard to their timing, quantity, burnup, and initial enrichment. This projection method complements the utility-supplied RW-859 data on historic discharges and short-term projections of SNF discharges by providing long-term projections that complete the total life cycle of discharges for each of the current U.S. nuclear power reactors. The method was initially developed in mid-1999 to update the SNF discharge projection associated with the 1995 RW-859 utility survey (CRWMS M and O 1996). and was further developed as described in Rev. 00 of this report (CRWMS M and O 2001a). Primary input to the projection of SNF discharges is the utility projection of the next five discharges from each nuclear unit, which is provided via the revised final version of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) 1998 RW-859 utility survey (EIA 2000a). The projection calculation method is implemented via a set of Excel 97 spreadsheets. These calculations provide the interface between receipt of the utility five-discharge projections that are provided in the RW-859 survey, and the delivery of projected life-cycle SNF discharge quantities and characteristics in the format requisite for performing logistics analysis to support design of the Civilian Radioactive Waste Management System (CRWMS). Calculation method improvements described in this report include the addition of a reactor-specific maximum enrichment-based discharge burnup limit. This limit is the consequence of the enrichment limit, currently 5 percent. which is imposed as a Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) license condition on nuclear fuel fabrication plants. In addition, the calculation method now includes the capability for projecting future nuclear plant power upratings, consistent with many such recent plant uprates and the prospect of additional future uprates. Finally. this report

The German joint research project "concepts for future gravity satellite missions"

Science.gov (United States)

Reubelt, Tilo; Sneeuw, Nico; Fichter, Walter; Müller, Jürgen

2010-05-01

Within the German joint research project "concepts for future gravity satellite missions", funded by the Geotechnologies programme of the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, options and concepts for future satellite missions for precise (time-variable) gravity field recovery are investigated. The project team is composed of members from science and industry, bringing together experts in geodesy, satellite systems, metrology, sensor technology and control systems. The majority of team members already contributed to former gravity missions. The composition of the team guarantees that not only geodetic aspects and objectives are investigated, but also technological and financial constraints are considered. Conversely, satellite, sensor and system concepts are developed and improved in a direct exchange with geodetic and scientific claims. The project aims to develop concepts for both near and mid-term future satellite missions, taking into account e.g. advanced satellite formations and constellations, improved orbit design, innovative metrology and sensor systems and advances in satellite systems.

Projecting Future Heat-Related Mortality under Climate Change Scenarios: A Systematic Review

Science.gov (United States)

Barnett, Adrian Gerard; Wang, Xiaoming; Vaneckova, Pavla; FitzGerald, Gerard; Tong, Shilu

2011-01-01

Background: Heat-related mortality is a matter of great public health concern, especially in the light of climate change. Although many studies have found associations between high temperatures and mortality, more research is needed to project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. Objectives: We conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. Data sources and extraction: A literature search was conducted in August 2010, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 through July 2010. Data synthesis: Fourteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding historical temperature–mortality relationships and considering the future changes in climate, population, and acclimatization. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution, and mortality displacement. Conclusions: Scenario-based projection research will meaningfully contribute to assessing and managing the potential impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. PMID:21816703

Quantitative Correlational Study: Emotional Intelligence and Project Outcomes among Hispanics in Technology

Science.gov (United States)

Trejo, Arturo

2013-01-01

The present quantitative correlational research study explored relationships between Emotional Intelligence (EI) competencies, such as self-awareness, self-management, social awareness, and relationship management, and project management outcomes: scope creep, in-budget project cost, and project timeliness. The study was conducted within the…

[The LORAS Project and quality assurance. In four years from input- to outcome-oriented financing in public health. 1: The LORAS Project].

Science.gov (United States)

Lenz, M J; Hochreutener, M A

2001-02-01

This series of three articles is a summary of the operations, findings and results of the hospital reform projects in the Canton of Zurich, termed LORAS. With the aid of the LORAS project within four years Zurich hospitals have been transformed. Whereas they used to adhere to input-oriented covering of deficits they now operate with outcome-oriented prospective financing of output. Part 1 describes the whole Project. Part 2 focuses on the development of outcome-measurement. Part 3 finally describes the implementation of the outcome-measurement in the canton of Zurich.

Present status and future directions of the Mayo/IBM PACS project

Science.gov (United States)

Morin, Richard L.; Forbes, Glenn S.; Gehring, Dale G.; Salutz, James R.; Pavlicek, William

1991-07-01

This joint project began in 1988 and was motivated by the need to develop an alternative to the archival process in place at that time (magnetic tape) for magnetic resonance imaging and neurological computed tomography. In addition, this project was felt to be an important step in gaining the necessary clinical experience for the future implementation of various aspects of electronic imaging. The initial phase of the project was conceived and developed to prove the concept, test the fundamental components, and produce performance measurements for future work. The key functions of this phase centered on attachment of imaging equipment (GE Signa) and archival processes using a non-dedicated (institutionally supplied) local area network (LAN). Attachment of imaging equipment to the LAN was performed using commercially available devices (Ethernet, PS/2, Token Ring). Image data were converted to ACR/NEMA format with retention of the vendor specific header information. Performance measurements were encouraging and led to the design of following projects. The second phase has recently been concluded. The major features of this phase have been to greatly expand the network, put the network into clinical use, establish an efficient and useful viewing station, include diagnostic reports in the archive data, provide wide area network (WAN) capability via ISDN, and establish two-way real-time video between remote sites. This phase has heightened both departmental and institutional thought regarding various issues raised by electronic imaging. Much discussion regarding both present as well as future archival processes has occurred. The use of institutional LAN resources has proven to be adequate for the archival function examined thus far. Experiments to date have shown that use of dedicated resources will be necessary for retrieval activities at even a basic level. This report presents an overview of the background present status and future directions of the project.

Projection of future transport energy demand of Thailand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Limanond, Thirayoot; Jomnonkwao, Sajjakaj; Srikaew, Artit

2011-01-01

The objective of this study is to project transport energy consumption in Thailand for the next 20 years. The study develops log-linear regression models and feed-forward neural network models, using the as independent variables national gross domestic product, population and the numbers of registered vehicles. The models are based on 20-year historical data between years 1989 and 2008, and are used to project the trends in future transport energy consumption for years 2010-2030. The final log-linear models include only gross domestic product, since all independent variables are highly correlated. It was found that the projection results of this study were in the range of 54.84-59.05 million tonnes of oil equivalent, 2.5 times the 2008 consumption. The projected demand is only 61-65% of that predicted in a previous study, which used the LEAP model. This major discrepancy in transport energy demand projections suggests that projects related to this key indicator should take into account alternative projections, because these numbers greatly affect plans, policies and budget allocation for national energy management. - Research highlights: → Thailand transport energy consumption would increase to 54.4-59.1 MTOE in Year 2030. → The log-linear models yield a slightly higher projection than the ANN models. → The elasticity of transport energy demand with respect to GDP is 0.995.

Projection of future transport energy demand of Thailand

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Limanond, Thirayoot, E-mail: tlimanond@yahoo.co [School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 (Thailand); Jomnonkwao, Sajjakaj [School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 (Thailand); Srikaew, Artit [School of Electrical Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 (Thailand)

2011-05-15

The objective of this study is to project transport energy consumption in Thailand for the next 20 years. The study develops log-linear regression models and feed-forward neural network models, using the as independent variables national gross domestic product, population and the numbers of registered vehicles. The models are based on 20-year historical data between years 1989 and 2008, and are used to project the trends in future transport energy consumption for years 2010-2030. The final log-linear models include only gross domestic product, since all independent variables are highly correlated. It was found that the projection results of this study were in the range of 54.84-59.05 million tonnes of oil equivalent, 2.5 times the 2008 consumption. The projected demand is only 61-65% of that predicted in a previous study, which used the LEAP model. This major discrepancy in transport energy demand projections suggests that projects related to this key indicator should take into account alternative projections, because these numbers greatly affect plans, policies and budget allocation for national energy management. - Research highlights: {yields} Thailand transport energy consumption would increase to 54.4-59.1 MTOE in Year 2030. {yields} The log-linear models yield a slightly higher projection than the ANN models. {yields} The elasticity of transport energy demand with respect to GDP is 0.995.

Large-scale water projects in the developing world: Revisiting the past and looking to the future

Science.gov (United States)

Sivakumar, Bellie; Chen, Ji

2014-05-01

During the past half a century or so, the developing world has been witnessing a significant increase in freshwater demands due to a combination of factors, including population growth, increased food demand, improved living standards, and water quality degradation. Since there exists significant variability in rainfall and river flow in both space and time, large-scale storage and distribution of water has become a key means to meet these increasing demands. In this regard, large dams and water transfer schemes (including river-linking schemes and virtual water trades) have been playing a key role. While the benefits of such large-scale projects in supplying water for domestic, irrigation, industrial, hydropower, recreational, and other uses both in the countries of their development and in other countries are undeniable, concerns on their negative impacts, such as high initial costs and damages to our ecosystems (e.g. river environment and species) and socio-economic fabric (e.g. relocation and socio-economic changes of affected people) have also been increasing in recent years. These have led to serious debates on the role of large-scale water projects in the developing world and on their future, but the often one-sided nature of such debates have inevitably failed to yield fruitful outcomes thus far. The present study aims to offer a far more balanced perspective on this issue. First, it recognizes and emphasizes the need for still additional large-scale water structures in the developing world in the future, due to the continuing increase in water demands, inefficiency in water use (especially in the agricultural sector), and absence of equivalent and reliable alternatives. Next, it reviews a few important success and failure stories of large-scale water projects in the developing world (and in the developed world), in an effort to arrive at a balanced view on the future role of such projects. Then, it discusses some major challenges in future water planning

Reservoir adaptive operating rules based on both of historical streamflow and future projections

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Wei; Liu, Pan; Wang, Hao; Chen, Jie; Lei, Xiaohui; Feng, Maoyuan

2017-10-01

Climate change is affecting hydrological variables and consequently is impacting water resources management. Historical strategies are no longer applicable under climate change. Therefore, adaptive management, especially adaptive operating rules for reservoirs, has been developed to mitigate the possible adverse effects of climate change. However, to date, adaptive operating rules are generally based on future projections involving uncertainties under climate change, yet ignoring historical information. To address this, we propose an approach for deriving adaptive operating rules considering both historical information and future projections, namely historical and future operating rules (HAFOR). A robustness index was developed by comparing benefits from HAFOR with benefits from conventional operating rules (COR). For both historical and future streamflow series, maximizations of both average benefits and the robustness index were employed as objectives, and four trade-offs were implemented to solve the multi-objective problem. Based on the integrated objective, the simulation-based optimization method was used to optimize the parameters of HAFOR. Using the Dongwushi Reservoir in China as a case study, HAFOR was demonstrated to be an effective and robust method for developing adaptive operating rules under the uncertain changing environment. Compared with historical or projected future operating rules (HOR or FPOR), HAFOR can reduce the uncertainty and increase the robustness for future projections, especially regarding results of reservoir releases and volumes. HAFOR, therefore, facilitates adaptive management in the context that climate change is difficult to predict accurately.

UAS Integration in the NAS Project and Future Autonomy Research

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Charles W.

2014-01-01

This presentation highlights NASA use of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) and related technologies for civil purposes. This briefing will give more insight into the UAS projects progress and future goals.

Optimizing the financial structure and maximizing the future value of your generation project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arulampalam, G.; Letellier, M.

2004-01-01

This paper discusses ways of optimizing the financial structure and maximizing the future value of an electric power generation project. It outlines the project structure, the sponsor objectives, project finance lending criteria, project timeline, risk mitigation, bank and institutional financing, sponsor's role, impact of financing choices on project value, and impact of penalties and derivative products

When, not if: the inescapability of an uncertain climate future.

Science.gov (United States)

Ballard, Timothy; Lewandowsky, Stephan

2015-11-28

Climate change projections necessarily involve uncertainty. Analysis of the physics and mathematics of the climate system reveals that greater uncertainty about future temperature increases is nearly always associated with greater expected damages from climate change. In contrast to those normative constraints, uncertainty is frequently cited in public discourse as a reason to delay mitigative action. This failure to understand the actual implications of uncertainty may incur notable future costs. It is therefore important to communicate uncertainty in a way that improves people's understanding of climate change risks. We examined whether responses to projections were influenced by whether the projection emphasized uncertainty in the outcome or in its time of arrival. We presented participants with statements and graphs indicating projected increases in temperature, sea levels, ocean acidification and a decrease in arctic sea ice. In the uncertain-outcome condition, statements reported the upper and lower confidence bounds of the projected outcome at a fixed time point. In the uncertain time-of-arrival condition, statements reported the upper and lower confidence bounds of the projected time of arrival for a fixed outcome. Results suggested that people perceived the threat as more serious and were more likely to encourage mitigative action in the time-uncertain condition than in the outcome-uncertain condition. This finding has implications for effectively communicating the climate change risks to policy-makers and the general public. © 2015 The Author(s).

Factors that influence the outcome of information technology projects in South Africa: An empirical investigation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carl Marnewick

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose: In developing countries such as South Africa, many organisations are reliant on information and communication technology (ICT to provide accurate, relevant and timely information. For organisations to obtain and sustain a competitive advantage, ICT systems are constantly implemented, upgraded, modified or replaced. These initiatives are often managed as projects. While there is an increasing amount of both financial resources and effort being spent on ICT, these projects are not always delivered within the predetermined project constraints. This implies additional time to complete, as well as additional costs, as resources are not released in time to participate in other projects. It is therefore important to understand the factors that influence the outcome of South African ICT projects relative to their original constraints. Problem Investigated: The goal of this article is to determine the factors that influence South African ICT projects, taking into consideration the fact that most current published research on this topic was done within the context of a developed country such as the USA and Europe. Design and/or methodology: The outcomes of ICT projects in South Africa as well as the factors that influence them were determined through an extensive survey. An analysis was done on the factors together with a correlation between the main factors contributing to project outcomes. The purpose of this was to establish if a factor's presence or absence influenced the eventual outcome. Findings: The factors that contribute to a successful outcome are often outside the direct control of the project manager and tend to be complex in nature. One factor that does stand out is that the alignment of projects with business objectives influences their perceived success. Originality/Value: The benefits of this article are that it firstly provides a South African perspective of current ICT project management practices, and secondly, it highlights

Are the Projections of Future Climate Change Reliable in the IPCC Reports?

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Zongci Zhao

2011-01-01

@@ As we know,the projections of future climate change including impacts and strategies in the IPCC Assessment Reports were based on global climate models with scenarios on various human activities.Global climate model simulations provide key inputs for climate change assessments. In this study,the main objective is to analyze if the projections of fu-ture climate change by global climate models are reli-able.Several workshops have been held on this issue,such as the IPCC expert meeting on assessing and combining multi-model climate projections in January of 2010 (presided by the co-chairs of the IPCC WGI and WGII AR5),and the workshop of the combined global climate model group held by NCAR in June of 2010.

The sustainable project management: A review and future possibilities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V.K. Chawla

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Sustainability in project operations such as financial, social and environmental sustainability is one of the most prominent issues of the present times to address. The increased focus on sus-tainable business operations has changed the viewpoint of researchers and corporate community towards the project management. Today sustainability in business operations along with sustain-ability of natural and environmental resources are of paramount significance which has further caused a huge impact on conception, planning, scheduling and execution of the project manage-ment activities. In this paper, a literature review between 1987 and 2018 on different issues af-fecting the sustainability in project management is carried out. The present study also identifies and discusses the future possibilities to apply computational procedures in order to estimate and optimize the sustainability issues in the management of projects, for example the computational evolutionary algorithms can be applied to formulate the multi-objective decision-making problem after considering critical factors of sustainability in the projects and then yielding optimized solu-tions for the formulated problem to achieve sustainability in the projects. A new integrated framework with the inclusion of feedback function for assessment of each decision and actions taken towards the sustainability of the projects is also identified and presented.

Projected climate change futures for Southern Africa

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Tadross, M

2017-10-01

Full Text Available of the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) in South Africa. In these experiments, a variable-resolution atmospheric global circulation model, CCAM, was applied as a regional climate model (RCM) to simulate both present-day and future climate... climate projection Observed climate RCM Climate forcing Climate simulation Statistical downscaling Dynamical downscaling 22 | Second Edition There are four pathways – RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. RCP 2.6 describes a scenario of very low...

UPDATING THE BASIC PRINCIPLES OF PROJECT EDUCATION TECHNOLOGY IN FUTURE MUSIC TEACHERS’ VOCAL AND CHORAL TRAINING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liang Haiye

2017-04-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to characterizing features of implementing project technology into future music teachers’ vocal and choral training. The analysis of scientific papers of outstanding scientists in philosophy, psychology, and art education, which deal with modern directions of using project technology, highlight its role in art education process. A methodological base is supported by considering contemporary scientific researches, in particular the theory and methodology of musical studies in accordance with forming students’ independence in the process of solving educational problems by means of project technology; developing principles of students’ professional training optimization on the basis of project activity; innovative development of future music teachers’ professional training that gives to the presented material novelty and presentable appearance. Studying future music teachers’ vocal and choral training as a process of constructing that has a special purpose of improving the quality descriptions of educational vocal and choral collective sound functioning, the author of the article discloses the basic principles of implementing project technology into future music teachers’ vocal and choral training. The author of the article pays the special attention to revealing specific features and maintenance of project technology in vocal and choral training of future leaders of child's art groups. An emphasis is made on the following basic factors that influence development of students’ creative individuality: constructing projects of their own becoming; setting aims, tasks, strategies and facilities of vocal and choral work; directing to the result; independent creative activity; presentation, reflection and correction of a project. On the basis of the obtained data the following principles of project technology are put forward in future music teachers’ vocal and choral training: principle of independence; principle of

Barriers to Implementing the ACGME Outcome Project: A Systematic Review of Program Director Surveys.

Science.gov (United States)

Malik, Mohammad U; Diaz Voss Varela, David A; Stewart, Charles M; Laeeq, Kulsoom; Yenokyan, Gayane; Francis, Howard W; Bhatti, Nasir I

2012-12-01

The Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) introduced the Outcome Project in July 2001 to improve the quality of resident education through competency-based learning. The purpose of this systematic review is to determine and explore the perceptions of program directors regarding challenges to implementing the ACGME Outcome Project. We used the PubMed and Web of Science databases and bibliographies for English-language articles published between January 1, 2001, and February 17, 2012. Studies were included if they described program directors' opinions on (1) barriers encountered when attempting to implement ACGME competency-based education, and (2) assessment methods that each residency program was using to implement competency-based education. Articles meeting the inclusion criteria were screened by 2 researchers. The grading criterion was created by the authors and used to assess the quality of each study. The survey-based data reported the opinions of 1076 program directors. Barriers that were encountered include: (1) lack of time; (2) lack of faculty support; (3) resistance of residents to the Outcome Project; (4) insufficient funding; (5) perceived low priority for the Outcome Project; (6) inadequate salary incentive; and (7) inadequate knowledge of the competencies. Of the 6 competencies, those pertaining to patient care and medical knowledge received the most responses from program directors and were given highest priority. The reviewed literature revealed that time and financial constraints were the most important barriers encountered when implementing the ACGME Outcome Project.

Interhemispheric Temperature Asymmetry in Historical Observations and Future Projections

Science.gov (United States)

Friedman, A. R.; Hwang, Y.; Chiang, J. C.; Frierson, D. M.

2013-12-01

The surface temperature contrast between the northern and southern hemispheres -- the interhemispheric temperature asymmetry (ITA) -- is an emerging indicator of global climate change, especially relevant to the latitude of the tropical rain bands. We investigate the ITA over historical observations and in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) historical simulations and future projections. We find that the uneven spatial impacts of greenhouse gas forcing cause amplified warming in the Arctic and northern landmasses, resulting in an increase of the ITA. However, anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, which are disproportionately emitted in the northern hemisphere, masked these effects on the ITA until around 1980. The implementation of air pollution regulations in North America and Europe combined with increased global emissions of greenhouse gases have resulted in a significant positive ITA trend since 1980. The CMIP5 historical multimodel ensembles simulate this positive ITA trend, though not its full magnitude. We explore how natural variability may account for some of the differences between the simulated and observed ITA. Future simulations project a substantial increase of the ITA over the twenty-first century, well outside its twentieth-century variability. This is largely in response to continued greenhouse gas emissions, though anthropogenic aerosol emissions are also important in some scenarios. We discuss the potential implications of this northern warming in causing a northward shift in tropical rainfall.

Do Savings Mediate Changes in Adolescents' Future Orientation and Health-Related Outcomes? Findings From Randomized Experiment in Uganda.

Science.gov (United States)

Karimli, Leyla; Ssewamala, Fred M

2015-10-01

This present study tests the proposition that an economic strengthening intervention for families caring for AIDS-orphaned adolescents would positively affect adolescent future orientation and psychosocial outcomes through increased asset accumulation (in this case, by increasing family savings). Using longitudinal data from the cluster-randomized experiment, we ran generalized estimating equation models with robust standard errors clustering on individual observations. To examine whether family savings mediate the effect of the intervention on adolescents' future orientation and psychosocial outcomes, analyses were conducted in three steps: (1) testing the effect of intervention on mediator; (2) testing the effect of mediator on outcomes, controlling for the intervention; and (3) testing the significance of mediating effect using Sobel-Goodman method. Asymmetric confidence intervals for mediated effect were obtained through bootstrapping-to address the assumption of normal distribution. Results indicate that participation in a matched Child Savings Account (CSA) program improved adolescents' future orientation and psychosocial outcomes by reducing hopelessness, enhancing self-concept, and improving adolescents' confidence about their educational plans. However, the positive intervention effect on adolescent future orientation and psychosocial outcomes was not transmitted through saving. In other words, participation in the matched CSA program improved adolescent future orientation and psychosocial outcomes regardless of its impact on reported savings. Further research is necessary to understand exactly how participation in economic strengthening interventions, for example, those that employ matched CSAs, shape adolescent future orientation and psychosocial outcomes: what, if not savings, transmits the treatment effect and how? Copyright © 2015 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Motivation and future temporal orientation: a test of the self-handicapping hypothesis.

Science.gov (United States)

Lennings, C J

1999-06-01

Self-handicapping motivation refers to the likelihood a person will project personal ambition into the future, make a pessimistic judgement, and then mobilise effort in the present to avoid an anticipated negative outcome. It should, therefore, be a correlate of future time perspective. This study showed for a sample of 120 first-year students that, whilst future time perspective did strongly predict scores on a measure of self-handicapping motivation, neither variable was a useful predictor of outcome.

Future Projection of Droughts over South Korea Using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Byung Sik Kim

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI, a method widely used to analyze droughts related to climate change, does not consider variables related to temperature and is limited because it cannot consider changes in hydrological balance, such as evapotranspiration from climate change. If we were to consider only the future increase in precipitation from climate change, droughts may decrease. However, because usable water can diminish from an increase in evapotranspiration, it is important to research on projected droughts considering the amount of evapotranspiration along with projecting and evaluating potential droughts considering the impact of climate change. As such, this study evaluated the occurrence of droughts using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI as a newly conceptualized drought index that is similar to SPI but includes the temperature variability. We extracted simulated future precipitation and temperature data (2011 - 2099 from the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP climate change scenario of IPCC AR5 to evaluate the impact of future climate change on the occurrence of droughts of South Korea. We analyzed the ratio of evapotranspiration to precipitation of meteorological observatories nationwide. In addition, we calculated the SPEI related to drought in the process to evaluate the future occurrence of droughts of South Korea. To confirm validity of SPEI results, extreme indices were analyzed. This resulted in the notion that as we go further into the future, the precipitation increases. But because of an increase in evapotranspiration also from a rise in temperature and continued dryness, the severity of droughts is projected to exacerbate.

Uncertainty of future projections of species distributions in mountainous regions.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ying Tang

Full Text Available Multiple factors introduce uncertainty into projections of species distributions under climate change. The uncertainty introduced by the choice of baseline climate information used to calibrate a species distribution model and to downscale global climate model (GCM simulations to a finer spatial resolution is a particular concern for mountainous regions, as the spatial resolution of climate observing networks is often insufficient to detect the steep climatic gradients in these areas. Using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt modeling framework together with occurrence data on 21 understory bamboo species distributed across the mountainous geographic range of the Giant Panda, we examined the differences in projected species distributions obtained from two contrasting sources of baseline climate information, one derived from spatial interpolation of coarse-scale station observations and the other derived from fine-spatial resolution satellite measurements. For each bamboo species, the MaxEnt model was calibrated separately for the two datasets and applied to 17 GCM simulations downscaled using the delta method. Greater differences in the projected spatial distributions of the bamboo species were observed for the models calibrated using the different baseline datasets than between the different downscaled GCM simulations for the same calibration. In terms of the projected future climatically-suitable area by species, quantification using a multi-factor analysis of variance suggested that the sum of the variance explained by the baseline climate dataset used for model calibration and the interaction between the baseline climate data and the GCM simulation via downscaling accounted for, on average, 40% of the total variation among the future projections. Our analyses illustrate that the combined use of gridded datasets developed from station observations and satellite measurements can help estimate the uncertainty introduced by the choice of baseline

Forward-Looking Search Within Innovation Projects

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jissink, Tymen; Rohrbeck, René; Schweitzer, Fiona

To develop highly-innovative projects, which are fraught with uncertainty and longer development times, one cannot solely rely on initial planning and budgeting to ensure the project’s outcome remains novel. This study posits that to develop innovative projects, project teams need to engage...... in forward-looking search during development to ensure the project’s outcome remains novel and relevant. We refer to forward-looking search as the search and evaluation of information on markets, customers, and technologies in terms of their future impact. Data on 159 unique innovation projects from...... the Danish manufacturing industry shows that forward-looking search significantly impacts innovativeness. The effect follows an inverted-U shape where the greatest positive effect on innovativeness occurs in moderately planned projects and significantly lower effects in low- and highly planned projects...

Researchers' experience with project management in health and medical research: Results from a post-project review

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

Background Project management is widely used to deliver projects on time, within budget and of defined quality. However, there is little published information describing its use in managing health and medical research projects. We used project management in the Alcohol and Pregnancy Project (2006-2008) http://www.ichr.uwa.edu.au/alcoholandpregnancy and in this paper report researchers' opinions on project management and whether it made a difference to the project. Methods A national interdisciplinary group of 20 researchers, one of whom was the project manager, formed the Steering Committee for the project. We used project management to ensure project outputs and outcomes were achieved and all aspects of the project were planned, implemented, monitored and controlled. Sixteen of the researchers were asked to complete a self administered questionnaire for a post-project review. Results The project was delivered according to the project protocol within the allocated budget and time frame. Fifteen researchers (93.8%) completed a questionnaire. They reported that project management increased the effectiveness of the project, communication, teamwork, and application of the interdisciplinary group of researchers' expertise. They would recommend this type of project management for future projects. Conclusions Our post-project review showed that researchers comprehensively endorsed project management in the Alcohol and Pregnancy Project and agreed that project management had contributed substantially to the research. In future, we will project manage new projects and conduct post-project reviews. The results will be used to encourage continuous learning and continuous improvement of project management, and provide greater transparency and accountability of health and medical research. The use of project management can benefit both management and scientific outcomes of health and medical research projects. PMID:21635721

Mapping a sustainable future: Community learning in dialogue at the science-society interface

Science.gov (United States)

Barth, Matthias; Lang, Daniel J.; Luthardt, Philip; Vilsmaier, Ulli

2017-12-01

In 2015, the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) announced that the Science Year 2015 would focus on the "City of the Future". It called for innovative projects from cities and communities in Germany dedicated to exploring future options and scenarios for sustainable development. Among the successful respondents was the city of Lüneburg, located in the north of Germany, which was awarded funding to establish a community learning project to envision a sustainable future ("City of the Future Lüneburg 2030+"). What made Lüneburg's approach unique was that the city itself initiated the project and invited a broad range of stakeholders to participate in a community learning process for sustainable development. The authors of this article use the project as a blueprint for sustainable city development. Presenting a reflexive case study, they report on the process and outcomes of the project and investigate community learning processes amongst different stakeholders as an opportunity for transformative social learning. They discuss outputs and outcomes (intended as well as unintended) in relation to the specific starting points of the project to provide a context-sensitive yet rich narrative of the case and to overcome typical criticisms of case studies in the field.

The EURECCA project

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

van Gijn, W; van den Broek, C B M; Mroczkowski, P

2012-01-01

for future research. METHODS: All colorectal outcome registrations participating in the EURECCA project were asked to supply a list with all the data items they score. Items were scored 'present' if they appeared literally in a registration or in case they could be calculated using other items in the same...

Projections on the future of the natural uranium industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ishido, Akio

1995-01-01

This discussion looks at the future of the uranium industry and considers what type of procurement policy should be adopted. Viewing the future as an extension of the present, it is possible that supplies of natural uranium will begin to run short around 2015. However, natural uranium will have more resources available than petroleum. If rising uranium prices reinvigorate exploration and lead to the discovery of new uranium deposits, future shortages will be unlikely. Nonetheless, with structural changes expected in the world economy, the nature of natural uranium transactions will no doubt change, thereby increasing the present element of uncertainty that much more. At the same time, the oligopolistic situation created by today's major producers will intensify. Based on these projections, the author has reassessed Japan's past procurement policy of government exploration/development support combined with private-sector uranium purchasing and finds this shared risk approach to be the best. (author)

Future projects of light kaonic atom X-ray spectroscopy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tatsuno, H.; Bazzi, M.; Beer, G.; Bellotti, G.; Berucci, C.; Bragadireanu, A.M.; Bosnar, D.; Cargnelli, M.; Curceanu, C.; Butt, A.D.; D’Uffizi, A.; Fiorini, C.; Ghio, F.; Guaraldo, C.; Hayano, R.S.; Iliescu, M.; Ishiwatari, T.; Iwasaki, M.; Sandri, P. Levi; Marton, J.; Okada, S.; Pietreanu, D.; Piscicchia, K.; Vidal, A. Romero; Sbardella, E.; Scordo, A.; Shi, H.; Sirghi, D.L.; Sirghi, F.; Doce, O. Vazquez; Widmann, E.; Zmeskal, J.

2016-01-01

X-ray spectroscopy of light kaonic atoms is a unique tool to provide precise information on the fundamental K̄N interaction at the low-energy limit and the in-medium nuclear interaction of K"−. The future experiments of kaonic deuterium strong-interaction shift and width (SIDDHARTA-2 and J-PARC E57) can extract the isospin dependent K"−N interaction at threshold. The high-resolution X-ray spectroscopy of kaonic helium with microcalorimeters (J-PARC E62) has the possibility to solve the long-standing potential-strength problem of the attractive K"−-nucleus interaction. Here, the recent experimental results and the future projects of X-ray spectroscopy of light kaonic atoms are presented.

Projecting the self into the future in individuals with schizophrenia: a preliminary cross-sectional study.

Science.gov (United States)

Raffard, Stéphane; Bortolon, Catherine; D'Argembeau, Arnaud; Gardes, Jeanne; Gely-Nargeot, Marie-Christine; Capdevielle, Delphine; Van der Linden, Martial

2016-07-01

The ability to project oneself into the future contributes to development and maintenance of a coherent sense of identity. If recent research has revealed that schizophrenia is associated with difficulties envisioning the future, little is known about patients' future self-representations. In this study, 27 participants with schizophrenia and 26 healthy controls were asked to simulate mental representations of plausible and highly significant future events (self-defining future projections, SDFPs) that they anticipate to happen in their personal future. Main results showed that schizophrenia patients had difficulties in reflecting on the broader meaning and implications of imagined future events. In addition, and contrary to our hypothesis, a large majority of SDFPs in schizophrenia patients were positive events, including achievements, relationship, and leisure contents. Interestingly, patients and controls did not differ on the perceived probability that these events will occur in the future. Our results suggest that schizophrenia patients have an exaggerated positive perception of their future selves. Together, these findings lend support to the idea that past and future self-defining representations have both similar and distinct characteristics in schizophrenia.

Virtual Mockup test based on computational science and engineering. Near future technology projected by JSPS-RFTFADVENTURE project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoshimura, Shinobu

2001-01-01

The ADVENTURE project began on August, 1997, as a project in the computational science' field of JSPS-RFTFADVENTURE project, and is progressed as five year project. In this project, by using versatile parallel computer environment such as PC cluster, super parallel computer, and so on , to solve an arbitrary shape of actual dynamical equation by using 10 to 100 million freedom class mode under maintaining a general use analytical capacity agreeable with present general use computational mechanics system, further development of a large-scale parallel computational mechanics system (ADVENTURE system) capable of carrying out an optimization design on shapes, physical properties, loading conditions, and so on is performed. Here was scoped, after outlining on background of R and D on ADVENTURE system and its features, on near future virtual mockup test forecast from it. (G.K.)

JPL Project Information Management: A Continuum Back to the Future

Science.gov (United States)

Reiz, Julie M.

2009-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the practices and architecture that support information management at JPL. This practice has allowed concurrent use and reuse of information by primary and secondary users. The use of this practice is illustrated in the evolution of the Mars Rovers from the Mars Pathfinder to the development of the Mars Science Laboratory. The recognition of the importance of information management during all phases of a project life cycle has resulted in the design of an information system that includes metadata, has reduced the risk of information loss through the use of an in-process appraisal, shaping of project's appreciation for capturing and managing the information on one project for re-use by future projects as a natural outgrowth of the process. This process has also assisted in connection of geographically disbursed partners into a team through sharing information, common tools and collaboration.

The impact of ageing and changing utilization patterns on future cardiovascular drug expenditure: a pharmacoepidemiological projection approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kildemoes, Helle Wallach; Andersen, Morten; Støvring, Henrik

2010-01-01

To develop a method for projecting the impact of ageing and changing drug utilization patterns on future drug expenditure.......To develop a method for projecting the impact of ageing and changing drug utilization patterns on future drug expenditure....

Discussions and projections about the future demand for nuclear power in Brazil

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oliveira, Fabio Branco Vaz de, E-mail: fabio@ipen.b [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Nuclear and Engineering Center; Imakuma, Kengo, E-mail: kimakuma@ipen.b [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Information Technology Development Dept.

2011-07-01

This paper aims mainly to discuss the current scenarios of power consumption, nuclear power and conventional and uranium resources and, based on that, present projections about the future demand for power generated through atomic fissions in Brazil, showing that there may be differences in estimates of future projections, depending on the indexes considered: global or domestic. The time horizon for the analysis was studied up to the maximum for the national population, for some of the world and Brazil's governmental data in terms of population growth, energy consumption and energy consumption per capita. To introduce the importance of the methodology adopted, data and some problems presented about the current world energy and Brazilian scenarios are discussed. Calculations show that the power consumption projections for Brazil, when using global indexes, are very high. According to our methodology, power consumption in Brazil is nearly 4.5 times below the estimates presented by the global indexes. The conclusion is that applying global indexes and their extension to domestic scenarios lead to errors of orders of magnitudes, due to the specific particularities of each country, and must be avoided if accurate projections about energy and nuclear scenarios must be considered. (author)

Discussions and projections about the future demand for nuclear power in Brazil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oliveira, Fabio Branco Vaz de; Imakuma, Kengo

2011-01-01

This paper aims mainly to discuss the current scenarios of power consumption, nuclear power and conventional and uranium resources and, based on that, present projections about the future demand for power generated through atomic fissions in Brazil, showing that there may be differences in estimates of future projections, depending on the indexes considered: global or domestic. The time horizon for the analysis was studied up to the maximum for the national population, for some of the world and Brazil's governmental data in terms of population growth, energy consumption and energy consumption per capita. To introduce the importance of the methodology adopted, data and some problems presented about the current world energy and Brazilian scenarios are discussed. Calculations show that the power consumption projections for Brazil, when using global indexes, are very high. According to our methodology, power consumption in Brazil is nearly 4.5 times below the estimates presented by the global indexes. The conclusion is that applying global indexes and their extension to domestic scenarios lead to errors of orders of magnitudes, due to the specific particularities of each country, and must be avoided if accurate projections about energy and nuclear scenarios must be considered. (author)

Assessment of Project Website Sustainability: Case of the Arctic EIA Project

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sonja H Bickford

2016-07-01

Full Text Available In many cases, temporary websites may be simple, accessible solutions for knowledge management and dissemination of information. However, such sites may become outdated as the funding ends, but yet in many cases, still publicly available through the Internet. The issue of website sustainability is a relevant topic for all organizations that have websites. Website lifecycle, knowledge management, and website sustainability issues are discussed through a theoretical-based literature review. These issues are then summarized and used as lessons learned for the case study approach of this paper. The aim is to identify a solution to address a website’s life and longevity, post project. A practical case study assessment of the issue of project website sustainability is needed to address the website’s longevity—post project—as creation is often made through temporary endeavors. Recommendations for future project websites are made as the outcomes and results of this study and are expressed in the form of suggested practices for project website sustainability in future projects.

Projected future changes in vegetation in western North America in the 21st century

Science.gov (United States)

Xiaoyan, Jiang; Rauscher, Sara A.; Ringler, Todd D.; Lawrence, David M.; Williams, A. Park; Allen, Craig D.; Steiner, Allison L.; Cai, D. Michael; McDowell, Nate G.

2013-01-01

Rapid and broad-scale forest mortality associated with recent droughts, rising temperature, and insect outbreaks has been observed over western North America (NA). Climate models project additional future warming and increasing drought and water stress for this region. To assess future potential changes in vegetation distributions in western NA, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) coupled with its Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) was used under the future A2 emissions scenario. To better span uncertainties in future climate, eight sea surface temperature (SST) projections provided by phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) were employed as boundary conditions. There is a broad consensus among the simulations, despite differences in the simulated climate trajectories across the ensemble, that about half of the needleleaf evergreen tree coverage (from 24% to 11%) will disappear, coincident with a 14% (from 11% to 25%) increase in shrubs and grasses by the end of the twenty-first century in western NA, with most of the change occurring over the latter half of the twenty-first century. The net impact is a ~6 GtC or about 50% decrease in projected ecosystem carbon storage in this region. The findings suggest a potential for a widespread shift from tree-dominated landscapes to shrub and grass-dominated landscapes in western NA because of future warming and consequent increases in water deficits. These results highlight the need for improved process-based understanding of vegetation dynamics, particularly including mortality and the subsequent incorporation of these mechanisms into earth system models to better quantify the vulnerability of western NA forests under climate change.

Projecting Future Sea Level Rise for Water Resources Planning in California

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, J.; Kao, K.; Chung, F.

2008-12-01

Sea level rise is one of the major concerns for the management of California's water resources. Higher water levels and salinity intrusion into the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta could affect water supplies, water quality, levee stability, and aquatic and terrestrial flora and fauna species and their habitat. Over the 20th century, sea levels near San Francisco Bay increased by over 0.6ft. Some tidal gauge and satellite data indicate that rates of sea level rise are accelerating. Sea levels are expected to continue to rise due to increasing air temperatures causing thermal expansion of the ocean and melting of land-based ice such as ice on Greenland and in southeastern Alaska. For water planners, two related questions are raised on the uncertainty of future sea levels. First, what is the expected sea level at a specific point in time in the future, e.g., what is the expected sea level in 2050? Second, what is the expected point of time in the future when sea levels will exceed a certain height, e.g., what is the expected range of time when the sea level rises by one foot? To address these two types of questions, two factors are considered: (1) long term sea level rise trend, and (2) local extreme sea level fluctuations. A two-step approach will be used to develop sea level rise projection guidelines for decision making that takes both of these factors into account. The first step is developing global sea level rise probability distributions for the long term trends. The second step will extend the approach to take into account the effects of local astronomical tides, changes in atmospheric pressure, wind stress, floods, and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. In this paper, the development of the first step approach is presented. To project the long term sea level rise trend, one option is to extend the current rate of sea level rise into the future. However, since recent data indicate rates of sea level rise are accelerating, methods for estimating sea level rise

Virtual Teaming and Collaboration Technology: A Study of Influences on Virtual Project Outcomes

Science.gov (United States)

Broils, Gary C.

2014-01-01

The purpose of this quantitative correlational study was to explore the relationships between the independent variables, contextual factors for virtual teams and collaboration technology, and the dependent variable, virtual project outcomes. The problem leading to the need for the study is a lower success rate for virtual projects compared to…

Physics Projects for a Future CERN-LNGS Neutrino Programme

OpenAIRE

Picchi, P.; Pietropaolo, F.

1998-01-01

We present an overview of the future projects concerning the neutrino oscillation physics in Europe. Recently a joint CERN-LNGS scientific committee has reviewed several proposals both for the study of atmospheric neutrinos and for long (LBL) and short baseline (SBL) neutrino oscillation experiments. The committee has indicated the priority that the European high energy physics community should follows in the field of neutrino physics, namely a new massive, atmospheric neutrino detector and a...

Futures project anticipates changes and challenges facing forests of the northern United States

Science.gov (United States)

Stephen R. Shifley; W. Keith Moser; Michael E. Goerndt; Nianfu Song; Mark D. Nelson; David J. Nowak; Patrick D. Miles; Brett J. Butler; Ryan D. DeSantis; Francisco X. Aguilar; Brian G. Tavernia

2014-01-01

The Northern Forest Futures Project aims to reveal how today's trends and choices are likely to change the future forest landscape in the northeastern and midwestern United States. The research is focused on the 20-state quadrant bounded by Maine, Maryland, Missouri, and Minnesota. This area, which encompasses most of the Central Hardwood Forest region, is the...

Past and future of the Austrian snow cover - results from the CC-Snow project

Science.gov (United States)

Strasser, Ulrich; Marke, Thomas; Hanzer, Florian; Ragg, Hansjörg; Kleindienst, Hannes; Wilcke, Renate; Gobiet, Andreas

2013-04-01

This study has the goal to simulate the evolution of the Austrian snow cover from 1971 to 2050 by means of a coupled modelling scheme, and to estimate the effect of climate change on the evolution of the natural snow cover. The model outcomes are interepreted with focus on both the future natural snow conditions, and the effects on winter skiing tourism. Therefore the regional temperature-index snow model SNOWREG is applied, providing snow maps with a spatial resolution of 250 m. The model is trained by means of assimilating local measurements and observed natural snow cover patterns. Meteorological forcing consists of the output of four realizations of the ENSEMBLES project for the A1B emission scenario. The meteorological variables are downscaled and error corrected with a quantile based empirical-statistical method on a daily time basis. The control simulation is 1971-2000, and the scenario simulation 2021-2050. Spatial interpolation is performed on the basis of parameter-elevation relations. We compare the four different global/regional climate model combinations and their effect on the snow modelling, and we explain the patterns of the resulting snow cover by means of regional climatological characteristics. The provinces Tirol and Styria serve as test regions, being typical examples for the two climatic subregions of Austria. To support the interpretation of the simulation results we apply indicators which enable to define meaningful measures for the comparison of the different periods and regions. Results show that the mean duration of the snow cover will decrease by 15 to 30 days per winter season, mostly in elevations between 2000 and 2500 m. Above 3000 m the higher winter precipitation can compensate this effect, and mean snow cover duration may even slightly increase. We also investigate the local scale by application of the physically based mountain snow model AMUNDSEN. This model is capable of producing 50 m resolution output maps for indicators

Projected future runoff of the Breede River under climate change ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The Breede River is the largest river in the Western Cape Province of South Africa, and as such, is a key resource for a variety of activities within the region. It is this significance of the river that prompted a study into the impact of climate change on future runoff in the river and hence, the potential impacts a projected change ...

Fostering Radical Collaboration: The OCUL Collaborative Futures Project

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anika Ervin-Ward

2016-07-01

Full Text Available This paper was first given as a poster presentation at the Ontario Library Association Super Conference in 2016. Building on decades of successful cooperative work, the Ontario Council of University Libraries (OCUL Collaborative Futures project aims to select and implement a shared next-generation library services platform (LSP, to manage and preserve print resources in a sustainable system, and to effectively and efficiently use a shared system for the management of electronic and print resources. Phase One of this project was completed in Summer 2015. This is its story. Cet article a été présenté pour la première fois comme une présentation d’affiches à la Super Conference de l’Association des bibliothèques de l’Ontario en 2016. Basant sur des décennies de collaboration réussie, le projet Collaborative Futures du Conseil des bibliothèques universitaires de l’Ontario vise à sélectionner et à mettre en oeuvre une plate-forme des services de bibliothèque de dernière génération, à gérer et à préserver des ressources imprimées dans un système viable, et à utiliser efficacement un système partagé pour la gestion des ressources imprimées et numériques. La première phase de ce projet a été complétée pendant l’été 2015. Ceci est son histoire.

Modelling climate impact on floods under future emission scenarios using an ensemble of climate model projections

Science.gov (United States)

Wetterhall, F.; Cloke, H. L.; He, Y.; Freer, J.; Pappenberger, F.

2012-04-01

Evidence provided by modelled assessments of climate change impact on flooding is fundamental to water resource and flood risk decision making. Impact models usually rely on climate projections from Global and Regional Climate Models, and there is no doubt that these provide a useful assessment of future climate change. However, cascading ensembles of climate projections into impact models is not straightforward because of problems of coarse resolution in Global and Regional Climate Models (GCM/RCM) and the deficiencies in modelling high-intensity precipitation events. Thus decisions must be made on how to appropriately pre-process the meteorological variables from GCM/RCMs, such as selection of downscaling methods and application of Model Output Statistics (MOS). In this paper a grand ensemble of projections from several GCM/RCM are used to drive a hydrological model and analyse the resulting future flood projections for the Upper Severn, UK. The impact and implications of applying MOS techniques to precipitation as well as hydrological model parameter uncertainty is taken into account. The resultant grand ensemble of future river discharge projections from the RCM/GCM-hydrological model chain is evaluated against a response surface technique combined with a perturbed physics experiment creating a probabilisic ensemble climate model outputs. The ensemble distribution of results show that future risk of flooding in the Upper Severn increases compared to present conditions, however, the study highlights that the uncertainties are large and that strong assumptions were made in using Model Output Statistics to produce the estimates of future discharge. The importance of analysing on a seasonal basis rather than just annual is highlighted. The inability of the RCMs (and GCMs) to produce realistic precipitation patterns, even in present conditions, is a major caveat of local climate impact studies on flooding, and this should be a focus for future development.

Incorporating climate change projections into riparian restoration planning and design

Science.gov (United States)

Perry, Laura G.; Reynolds, Lindsay V.; Beechie, Timothy J.; Collins, Mathias J.; Shafroth, Patrick B.

2015-01-01

Climate change and associated changes in streamflow may alter riparian habitats substantially in coming decades. Riparian restoration provides opportunities to respond proactively to projected climate change effects, increase riparian ecosystem resilience to climate change, and simultaneously address effects of both climate change and other human disturbances. However, climate change may alter which restoration methods are most effective and which restoration goals can be achieved. Incorporating climate change into riparian restoration planning and design is critical to long-term restoration of desired community composition and ecosystem services. In this review, we discuss and provide examples of how climate change might be incorporated into restoration planning at the key stages of assessing the project context, establishing restoration goals and design criteria, evaluating design alternatives, and monitoring restoration outcomes. Restoration planners have access to numerous tools to predict future climate, streamflow, and riparian ecology at restoration sites. Planners can use those predictions to assess which species or ecosystem services will be most vulnerable under future conditions, and which sites will be most suitable for restoration. To accommodate future climate and streamflow change, planners may need to adjust methods for planting, invasive species control, channel and floodplain reconstruction, and water management. Given the considerable uncertainty in future climate and streamflow projections, riparian ecological responses, and effects on restoration outcomes, planners will need to consider multiple potential future scenarios, implement a variety of restoration methods, design projects with flexibility to adjust to future conditions, and plan to respond adaptively to unexpected change.

Navigating Bioethical Waters: Two Pilot Projects in Problem-Based Learning for Future Bioscience and Biotechnology Professionals.

Science.gov (United States)

Berry, Roberta M; Levine, Aaron D; Kirkman, Robert; Blake, Laura Palucki; Drake, Matthew

2016-12-01

We believe that the professional responsibility of bioscience and biotechnology professionals includes a social responsibility to contribute to the resolution of ethically fraught policy problems generated by their work. It follows that educators have a professional responsibility to prepare future professionals to discharge this responsibility. This essay discusses two pilot projects in ethics pedagogy focused on particularly challenging policy problems, which we call "fractious problems". The projects aimed to advance future professionals' acquisition of "fractious problem navigational" skills, a set of skills designed to enable broad and deep understanding of fractious problems and the design of good policy resolutions for them. A secondary objective was to enhance future professionals' motivation to apply these skills to help their communities resolve these problems. The projects employed "problem based learning" courses to advance these learning objectives. A new assessment instrument, "Skills for Science/Engineering Ethics Test" (SkillSET), was designed and administered to measure the success of the courses in doing so. This essay first discusses the rationale for the pilot projects, and then describes the design of the pilot courses and presents the results of our assessment using SkillSET in the first pilot project and the revised SkillSET 2.0 in the second pilot project. The essay concludes with discussion of observations and results.

Live Storybook Outcomes of Pilot Multidisciplinary Elementary Earth Science Collaborative Project

Science.gov (United States)

Soeffing, C.; Pierson, R.

2017-12-01

Live Storybook Outcomes of pilot multidisciplinary elementary earth science collaborative project Anchoring phenomena leading to student led investigations are key to applying the NGSS standards in the classroom. This project employs the GLOBE elementary storybook, Discoveries at Willow Creek, as an inspiration and operational framework for a collaborative pilot project engaging 4th grade students in asking questions, collecting relevant data, and using analytical tools to document and understand natural phenomena. The Institute of Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), a GLOBE Partner, the Outdoor Campus, an informal educational outdoor learning facility managed by South Dakota Game, Fish and Parks, University of Sioux Falls, and All City Elementary, Sioux Falls are collaborating partners in this project. The Discoveries at Willow Creek storyline introduces young students to the scientific process, and models how they can apply science and engineering practices (SEPs) to discover and understand the Earth system in which they live. One innovation associated with this project is the formal engagement of elementary students in a global citizen science program (for all ages), GLOBE Observer, and engaging them in data collection using GLOBE Observer's Cloud and Mosquito Habitat Mapper apps. As modeled by the fictional students from Willow Creek, the 4th grade students will identify their 3 study sites at the Outdoor Campus, keep a journal, and record observations. The students will repeat their investigations at the Outdoor Campus to document and track change over time. Students will be introduced to "big data" in a manageable way, as they see their observations populate GLOBE's map-based data visualization and . Our research design recognizes the comfort and familiarity factor of literacy activities in the elementary classroom for students and teachers alike, and postulates that connecting a science education project to an engaging storybook text will contribute to a

Why Different Drought Indexes Show Distinct Future Drought Risk Outcomes in the U.S. Great Plains?

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, S.; Hayes, M. J.; Trnka, M.

2015-12-01

Vigorous discussions and disagreements about the future changes in drought intensity in the US Great Plains have been taking place recently within the literature. These discussions have involved widely varying estimates based on drought indices and model-based projections of the future. To investigate and understand the causes for such a disparity between these previous estimates, we analyzed 10 commonly-used drought indexes using the output from 26 state-of-the-art climate models. These drought indices were computed using potential evapotranspiration estimated by the physically-based Penman-Monteith method (PE_pm) and the empirically-based Thornthwaite method (PE_th). The results showed that the short-term drought indicators are similar to modeled surface soil moisture and show a small but consistent drying trend in the future. The long-term drought indicators and the total column soil moisture, however, are consistent in projecting more intense future drought. When normalized, the drought indices with PE_th all show unprecedented and possibly unrealistic future drying, while the drought indices with PE_pm show comparable dryness with the modeled soil moisture. Additionally, the drought indices with PE_pm are closely related to soil moisture during both the 20th and 21st Centuries. Overall, the drought indices with PE_pm, as well as the modeled total column soil moisture, suggest a widespread and very significant drying of the Great Plains region toward the end of the Century. Our results suggested that the sharp contracts about future drought risk in the Great Plains discussed in previous studies are caused by 1) comparing the projected changes in short-term droughts with that of the long-term droughts, and/or 2) computing the atmospheric evaporative demand using the empirically-based method (e.g., PE_th). Our analysis may be applied for drought projections in other regions across the globe.

NSF-Sponsored Summit on the Future of Undergraduate Geoscience Education: outcomes

Science.gov (United States)

Mosher, S.

2014-12-01

The NSF-sponsored Summit on the Future of Undergraduate Geoscience Education made major progress toward developing a collective community vision for the geosciences. A broad spectrum of the geoscience education community, ~200 educators from research universities/four and two year colleges, focused on preparation of undergraduates for graduate school and future geoscience careers, pedagogy, use of technology, broadening participation/retention of underrepresented groups, and preparation of K-12 science teachers. Participants agreed that key concepts, competencies and skills learned throughout the curriculum were more important than specific courses. Concepts included understanding Earth as complex, dynamic system, deep time, evolution of life, natural resources, energy, hazards, hydrogeology, surface processes, Earth materials and structure, and climate change. Skills/competencies included ability to think spatially and temporally, reason inductively and deductively, make and use indirect observations, engage in complex open, coupled systems thinking, and work with uncertainty, non-uniqueness, and incompleteness, as well as critical thinking, problem solving, communication, and ability to think like a scientist and continue to learn. Successful ways of developing these include collaborative, integrative projects involving teams, interdisciplinary projects, fieldwork and research experiences, as well as flipped classrooms and integration and interactive use of technology, including visualization, simulation, modeling and analysis of real data. Wider adoption of proven, effective best practices is our communities' main pedagogical challenge, and we focused on identifying implementation barriers. Preparation of future teachers in introductory and general geoscience courses by incorporating Next Generation Science Standards and using other sciences/math to solve real world geoscience problems should help increase diversity and number of future geoscientists and

Risk Management in Future Romanian E-Government 2.0 Projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Didraga Otniel

2015-08-01

Full Text Available E-government public services in Romania must follow unitary procedures considering the new requirements of the European Union from the Digital Agenda for Europe Strategy 2020. E-government 2.0 has to be implemented because of the cultural and behavioral transformations in the interaction between governments and users of e-services. E-government 2.0 projects use tools and techniques of social media to accomplish their goals. This article examines the possible risk categories and the risk management procedures needed to mitigate risks in future Romanian e-government projects, according to the strategic lines of development for the Digital Agenda. We propose a risk management plan for the e-government lines of action within the strategic lines of development that includes identifying, assessing, and mitigating the risks. New and modernized government services through e-government 2.0 projects that apply risk management will bring a significant improvement in how citizens and businesses relate to government and will increase the use of e-government services.

Intelum project: tackling the calorimetry challenge for future high-energy colliders

CERN Multimedia

CERN Bulletin

2015-01-01

Intelum is one of the CERN-coordinated projects funded under H2020. It aims to develop low-cost, radiation-hard scintillating and Cherenkov crystal and glass fibres for the next generation of calorimeter detectors for future high-energy experiments. This new technology could also have important applications in the medical imaging field.     Intelum project partners at the kick-off meeting held on 11 March at CERN.   Intelum is an H2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie Research and Innovation Staff Exchange (RISE) project coordinated by CERN. This project was initiated by the Crystal Clear Collaboration (CERN’s RD18 experiment), which has been developing inorganic scintillation materials for novel ionising-radiation detectors for 25 years. Intelum is an international consortium including fifteen institutes and companies from across western and eastern Europe, Japan and the USA, all of which are experts in crystal growth, scintillating mechanisms, radiation damage and dete...

Web-based access, aggregation, and visualization of future climate projections with emphasis on agricultural assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Villoria, Nelson B.; Elliott, Joshua; Müller, Christoph; Shin, Jaewoo; Zhao, Lan; Song, Carol

2018-01-01

Access to climate and spatial datasets by non-specialists is restricted by technical barriers involving hardware, software and data formats. We discuss an open-source online tool that facilitates downloading the climate data from the global circulation models used by the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. The tool also offers temporal and spatial aggregation capabilities for incorporating future climate scenarios in applications where spatial aggregation is important. We hope that streamlined access to these data facilitates analysis of climate related issues while considering the uncertainties derived from future climate projections and temporal aggregation choices.

The IAEA international project on innovative nuclear reactors and fuel cycles (INPRO): current and future activities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kupitz, J.; Depisch, F.; Kuznetsov, V.

2004-01-01

Upon resolutions of the IAEA General Conference in 2000, the IAEA initiated International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO). The objective of INPRO, which comprises two phases, is to support sustainable deployment and use of nuclear technology to meet the global energy needs in the next 50 years and beyond. During Phase I, work is subdivided into two sub phases. Phase 1A focused on determining user requirements in the areas of economics, environment, safety, proliferation resistance, and recommendations in the area of so-called crosscutting issues, which are legal, institutional, and infrastructure issues accompanying the deployment of nuclear power, and is targeted at developing a methodology and guidelines for the assessment of various nuclear reactor and fuel cycle concepts and approaches. Phase 1A was finalised in June 2003 with its results now available as IAEA TECDOC-1362. Phase 1B has started in July 2003. During this phase interested Member States are performing case studies to validate the INPRO methodology and, later on, to assess selected innovative nuclear energy systems using the updated INPRO methodology. In accordance with the INPRO Terms of Reference, after successful completion of Phase I, Phase II may be initiated to examine the feasibility of commencing international projects on innovative nuclear energy systems. The paper contains a description of the current and future activities of INPRO and summarizes the outcome of the project.(author)

INFUSING INDUSTRY PRACTICES INTO AN ENGINEERING CAPTSONE PROJECT: A LEARNING OUTCOME ATTAINMENT CASE STUDY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SATESH NAMASIVAYAM

2016-04-01

Full Text Available A capstone project in current engineering education is often introduced to enable the holistic attainment of engineering knowledge by an engineering undergraduate. Essentially project-based in nature, there exists a need to ensure that part of the attainment process involves key industry practices – such practices being necessary in attaining the status of a professional engineer. Herein lies the synergy that can be made use of between industry and academia. By exposing engineering undergraduates to a project which addresses an engineering challenge and providing them with the opportunity to learn from professional engineers who are experts in the fields of safety, sustainability, quality management, ethics and project management, this culminates in the implementation of a prototype design which incorporates the amalgamation of knowledge from industry and academia. This paper presents the unique curriculum developed in a capstone project module, incorporating learning sessions from professional engineers in the five (5 key areas of industry practice highlighted above and how these have contributed to significantly enhancing the learning outcome and hence programme outcome attainment of the engineering undergraduates who have experienced the module.

Future Projection of Ocean Wave Climate: Analysis of SST Impacts on Wave Climate Changes in the Western North Pacific

OpenAIRE

Shimura, Tomoya; Mori, Nobuhito; Mase, Hajime

2015-01-01

Changes in ocean surface waves elicit a variety of impacts on coastal environments. To assess the future changes in the ocean surface wave climate, several future projections of global wave climate have been simulated in previous studies. However, previously there has been little discussion about the causes behind changes in the future wave climate and the differences between projections. The objective of this study is to estimate the future changes in mean wave climate and the sensitivity of...

Future projection of design storms using a GCM-informed weather generator

Science.gov (United States)

KIm, T. W.; Wi, S.; Valdés-Pineda, R.; Valdés, J. B.

2017-12-01

The rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves are one of the most common tools used to provide planners with a description of the frequency of extreme rainfall events of various intensities and durations. Therefore deriving appropriate IDF estimates is important to avoid malfunctions of water structures that cause huge damage. Evaluating IDF estimates in the context of climate change has become more important because projections from climate models suggest that the frequency of intense rainfall events will increase in the future due to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, the Bartlett-Lewis (BL) stochastic rainfall model is employed to generate annual maximum series of various sub-daily durations for test basins of the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) project, and to derive the IDF curves in the context of climate changes projected by the North American Regional Climate Change (NARCCAP) models. From our results, it has been found that the observed annual rainfall maximum series is reasonably represented by the synthetic annual maximum series generated by the BL model. The observed data is perturbed by change factors to incorporate the NARCCAP climate change scenarios into the IDF estimates. The future IDF curves show a significant difference from the historical IDF curves calculated for the period 1968-2000. Overall, the projected IDF curves show an increasing trend over time. The impacts of changes in extreme rainfall on the hydrologic response of the MOPEX basins are also explored. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by a grant [MPSS-NH-2015-79] through the Disaster and Safety Management Institute funded by Ministry of Public Safety and Security of Korean government.

FutureGen 2.0 Pipeline and Regional Carbon Capture Storage Project - Final Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Burger, Chris [Patrick Engineering Inc., Lisle, IL (United States); Wortman, David [Patrick Engineering Inc., Lisle, IL (United States); Brown, Chris [Battelle Memorial Inst., Richland, WA (United States); Hassan, Syed [Gulf Interstate Engineering, Houston, TX (United States); Humphreys, Ken [Futuregen Industrial Alliance, Inc., Washington, D.C. (United States); Willford, Mark [Futuregen Industrial Alliance, Inc., Washington, D.C. (United States)

2016-03-31

The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) FutureGen 2.0 Program involves two projects: (1) the Oxy-Combustion Power Plant Project and (2) the CO2 Pipeline and Storage Project. This Final Technical Report is focused on the CO2 Pipeline and Storage Project. The FutureGen 2.0 CO2 Pipeline and Storage Project evolved from an initial siting and project definition effort in Phase I, into the Phase II activity consisting permitting, design development, the acquisition of land rights, facility design, and licensing and regulatory approvals. Phase II also progressed into construction packaging, construction procurement, and targeted early preparatory activities in the field. The CO2 Pipeline and Storage Project accomplishments were significant, and in some cases unprecedented. The engineering, permitting, legal, stakeholder, and commercial learnings substantially advance the nation’s understanding of commercial-scale CO2 storage in deep saline aquifers. Voluminous and significant information was obtained from the drilling and the testing program of the subsurface, and sophisticated modeling was performed that held up to a wide range of scrutiny. All designs progressed to the point of securing construction contracts or comfort letters attesting to successful negotiation of all contract terms and willing execution at the appropriate time all major project elements – pipeline, surface facilities, and subsurface – as well as operations. While the physical installation of the planned facilities did not proceed in part due to insufficient time to complete the project prior to the expiration of federal funding, the project met significant objectives prior to DOE’s closeout decision. Had additional time been available, there were no known, insurmountable obstacles that would have precluded successful construction and operation of the project. Due to the suspension of the project, site restoration activities were developed and the work was accomplished. The site restoration

Utilization of paleoclimate results to validate projections of a future greenhouse warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crowley, T.J.

1990-01-01

Paleoclimate data provide a rich source of information for testing projections of future greenhouse trends. This paper summarizes the present state-of-the-art as to assessments of two important climate problems. (1) Validation of climate models - The same climate models that have been used to make greenhouse forecasts have also been used for paleoclimate simulations. Comparisons of model results and observations indicate some impressive successes but also some cases where there are significant divergences between models and observations. However, special conditions associated with the impressive successes could lead to a false confidence in the models; disagreements are a topic of greater concern. It remains to be determined whether the disagreements are due to model limitations or uncertainties in geologic data. (2) Role of CO 2 as a significant climate feedback: Paleoclimate studies indicate that the climate system is generally more sensitive than our ability to model it. Addition or subtraction of CO 2 leads to a closer agreement between models and observations. In this respect paleoclimate results in general support the conclusion that CO 2 is an important climate feedback, with the magnitude of the feedback approximately comparable to the sensitivity of present climate models. If the CO 2 projections are correct, comparison of the future warming with past warm periods indicate that there may be no geologic analogs for a future warming; the future greenhouse climate may represent a unique climate realization in earth history

Present status and future project on hadron physics with KEK proton synchrotron

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Masaike, Akira

1984-01-01

Recent experimental results on hadron physics using a 12 GeV proton synchrotron at KEK are presented. Several future projects which have been proposed as a post-shutdown program from 1985 including hypernuclear physics, physics with polarized beam and heavy ion beam are also reported. (author)

High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble Projections of Future Extreme Temperature Distributions for the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Kotamarthi, V. Rao

2017-12-01

The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary conditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal-length time slices (2045-2054 and 2085-2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995-2004). Probability density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm-side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have a less significant warm-side shift with decreased variability. Using "business-as-usual" scenario, 5-day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5-10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥95°F days will increase by 1-2 months by the end of the century.

Clinical features, treatment and outcome of the acute subdural hematoma in JNTDB. Comparison between Project 1998 and Project 2004

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miyata, Akihiro; Nakamura, Hiroshi

2009-01-01

The purpose of this study was clarify the clinical features, a change of the therapy and the effect, connection with the outcome of acute subdural hematoma registered on the Japan Neurotrauma Data Bank (JNTDB) presented in 1998 and 2004. Among those, 421 cases in P1998 and 380 cases in P2004 aged more than 6 years who presented with Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) 8 or less on admission and with acute subdural hematoma (ASDH) on CT findings were retrospectively analyzed. As for the age distribution, two peaks were seen in young aged 16-20 years and old aged 61-65 years. The ratio of the ASDH case in young cases (45 years) decreased compared with P1998. A ratio of traffic accidents decreased, and a ratio of the injury by the fall increased. Surgical treatment was performed to 63.2% (P2004), 65.1% (P1998), and was performed both projects most together by a 46-65 year-old case. Hematoma evacuation group increased to 21.1% from 14.5%, and a burr hole opening decreased to 17.1% (P2004) from 22.3% (P1998). The temperature management was performed to 41.2% (P2004), 20.5% (P1998), especially the younger cases (45 years) in P2004, the temperature management was performed to 56.2%. The overall mortality is 67.7% (P1998), and 54.5% (P2004). The mortality of the temperature management cases was decreased, but the favorable outcome group does not increase. In younger cases (45 years), the favorable outcome group improved to 47.1% (P2004) from 33.3% (P1998) in the hypothermia group, and improved to 45.5% (P2004) from 30.0% (P1998) in the normothermia group. Temperature management after surgical treatment was more common, used to 57.5% (P2004) and 29.2% (P1998). The rate of favorable outcome group tends to increase in the hypothermia and normothermia group with craniotomy, but the mortality was not seen in the difference with the no temperature management group. For the case that used temperature management with a burr hole opening, the effect was not clear. An outcome tends to be good

Summaries and future projections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Egelstaff, P.A.

1989-01-01

In this paper the author gives a brief summary of this meeting. He discusses the status at the current neutron sources and future sources. The current problems with targets, moderators, performance of storage rings and shields are briefly mentioned. Finally, he speculates on the prospects of neutron sources for the future and gives his version of the ultimate source

Peaceful Uses Initiative (PUI) — a glimpse into current and future projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2015-01-01

With more than 170 projects successfully supported, benefiting more than 130 Member States, the Peaceful Uses Initiative (PUI) has been an effective mechanism for raising additional resources to meet the needs of Member States. The IAEA hopes to carry on with this initiative to further expand the benefits of the peaceful uses of nuclear science and technology in promoting broad development goals. Here is a glimpse into some of the major current and future PUI-supported projects that need additional financial contributions. For more information, see: www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/ peaceful-uses-initiative.

Peaceful Uses Initiative (PUI) — A glimpse into current and future projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2015-01-01

With more than 170 projects successfully supported, benefiting more than 130 Member States, the Peaceful Uses Initiative (PUI) has been an effective mechanism for raising additional resources to meet the needs of Member States. The IAEA hopes to carry on with this initiative to further expand the benefits of the peaceful uses of nuclear science and technology in promoting broad development goals. Here is a glimpse into some of the major current and future PUI-supported projects that need additional financial contributions. For more information, see: www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/ peaceful-uses-initiative

Peaceful Uses Initiative (PUI) — A glimpse into current and future projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2015-01-01

With more than 170 projects successfully supported, benefiting more than 130 Member States, the Peaceful Uses Initiative (PUI) has been an effective mechanism for raising additional resources to meet the needs of Member States. The IAEA hopes to carry on with this initiative to further expand the benefits of the peaceful uses of nuclear science and technology in promoting broad development goals. Here is a glimpse into some of the major current and future PUI-supported projects that need additional financial contributions. For more information, see: www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/ peaceful-uses-initiative.

The International Dermatology Outcome Measures Group: formation of patient-centered outcome measures in dermatology.

Science.gov (United States)

Gottlieb, Alice B; Levin, Adriane A; Armstrong, April W; Abernethy, April; Duffin, Kristina Callis; Bhushan, Reva; Garg, Amit; Merola, Joseph F; Maccarone, Mara; Christensen, Robin

2015-02-01

As quality standards are increasingly in demand throughout medicine, dermatology needs to establish outcome measures to quantify the effectiveness of treatments and providers. The International Dermatology Outcome Measures Group was established to address this need. Beginning with psoriasis, the group aims to create a tool considerate of patients and providers using the input of all relevant stakeholders in assessment of disease severity and response to treatment. Herein, we delineate the procedures through which consensus is being reached and the future directions of the project. Copyright © 2014 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluating employee assistance programs. A review of methods, outcomes, and future directions.

Science.gov (United States)

Jerrell, J M; Rightmyer, J F

1982-01-01

Renewed interest in assisting troubled employees has led to an upsurge in the development of employee assistance programs, coupled with demands for demonstrable effectiveness. This review examines the nature and scope of these programs, their administrative and methodological context, and the types and outcomes of evaluation studies conducted thus far. Proposals for improving future investigations through a number of different approaches and strategies are then made.

Fueling our future : strategic energy policy opportunities for Canada : outcomes report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lepine, G.; Poisson, Y.

2005-01-01

Canada's economic future is closely linked to its energy future. This report relates outcomes from a conference aimed at understanding the issues and challenges facing the energy sector. The goal of the conference was to promote a dialogue on a national approach to meeting Canada's energy needs. Participants at the conference agreed that ensuring a sustainable energy supply was an overarching challenge. Both unconventional and traditional sources of energy will be needed for supply and export in the future. The development of new sources of both conventional and unconventional energy was a priority. Investments in technological advancement held the key to future development. A consensus emerged that increased energy efficiency is necessary along with strong, articulate energy policies. Market-based decision-making should work in combination with the public sector. The complex regulatory approval process is seen as a serious challenge to Canada's energy future and collaboration is crucial to the success of Canada's energy strategy, with provincial, territorial and federal commitment. Environmental considerations are a significant component, with increased attention paid to issues of climate change in the face of increased demand. Discrepancies in policy and the legally binding Kyoto Protocol were discussed with reference to regulations, policy and tax incentives. A zero-emission future was suggested. Frameworks and policy guidelines are seen as necessary for future advancement, as well as high-level political commitment. It was concluded that more discussion between industry, environmental Non-Government Organizations (NGOs), senior policy makers and advisors is necessary to address energy issues and begin moving forward. Conference agendas, participant lists, biographies and presentation notes were also included

Projections of future extreme weather losses under changes in climate and exposure

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bouwer, L.M.

2013-01-01

Many attempts are made to assess future changes in extreme weather events due to anthropogenic climate change, but few studies have estimated the potential change in economic losses from such events. Projecting losses is more complex as it requires insight into the change in the weather hazard but

Planned Change in Future Models of Project Follow Through: A Concept Paper.

Science.gov (United States)

Simpkins, Edward; Brown, Asa

The three chapters included in this paper establish a basis for organizing future implementations of Project Follow Through. Specifically, chapter 1 identifies four planning objectives for coordinating such programs. Emphasis is given to the need to focus on one fundamental, pervasive variable possibly accounting for program success: time…

Future Drought Projections over the Iberian Peninsula using Drought Indices

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia-Valdecasas Ojeda, M.; Yeste Donaire, P.; Góngora García, T. M.; Gámiz-Fortis, S. R.; Castro-Diez, Y.; Esteban-Parra, M. J.

2017-12-01

Currently, drought events are the cause of numerous annual economic losses. In a context of climate change, it is expected an increase in the severity and the frequency of drought occurrences, especially in areas such as the Mediterranean region. This study makes use of two drought indices in order to analyze the potential changes on future drought events and their effects at different time scales over a vulnerable region, the Iberian Peninsula. The indices selected were the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which takes into account the global warming through the temperature, and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), based solely on precipitation data, at a spatial resolution of 0.088º ( 10 km). For their computation, current (1980-2014) and future (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) high resolution simulations were carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over a domain centered in the Iberian Peninsula, and nested in the 0.44 EUROCORDEX region. WRF simulations were driven by two different global bias-corrected climate models: the version 1 of NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM1) and the Max Planck Institute's Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-LR), and under two different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Future projections were analyzed regarding to changes in mean, median and variance of drought indices with respect to the historical distribution, as well as changes in the frequency and duration of moderate and severe drought events. In general, results suggest an increase in frequency and severity of drought, especially for 2071-2100 period in the RCP 8.5 scenario. Results also shown an increase of drought phenomena more evident using the SPEI. Conclusions from this study could provide a valuable contribution to the understanding of how the increase of the temperature would affect the drought variability in the Mediterranean regions which is necessary for a suitable

EDF source term reduction project main outcomes and further developments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ranchoux, Gilles; Bonnefon, Julien; Benfarah, Moez; Wintergerst Matthieu; Gressier, Frederic; Leclercq, Stephanie

2012-09-01

The dose reduction is a strategic purpose for EDF in link with the stakes of, nuclear acceptability, respect of regulation and productivity gains. This consists not only in improving the reactor shutdown organization (time spent in control area, biological shielding,...) but also in improving the radiological state of the unit and the efficiency of the source term reduction operations. Since 2003, EDF has been running an innovative project called 'Source Term Reduction' federating the different EDF research and engineering centers in order to: - participate to the long term view about Radiological Protection issues (international feedback analyses), - develop contamination prediction tools (OSCAR software) suitable for the industrial needs (operating units and EPR design), - develop scientific models useful for the understanding of contamination mechanisms to support the strategic decision processes, - carry on with updating and analyzing of contamination measurements feedback in corrosion products (EMECC and CZT campaigns), - carry on with the operational support at short or middle term by optimizing startup and shutdown processes, pre-oxidation or and by improving purification efficiency or material characteristics. This paper will show in a first part the main 2011 results in occupational exposure (collective and individual dose, RCS index...). In a second part, an overview of the main EDF outcomes of the last 3 years in the field of source term reduction will be presented. Future developments extended to contamination issues in EDF NPPs will be also pointed out in this paper. (authors)

Strategies for Effective Dissemination of the Outcomes of Teaching and Learning Projects

Science.gov (United States)

Southwell, Deborah; Gannaway, Deanne; Orrell, Janice; Chalmers, Denise; Abraham, Catherine

2010-01-01

This paper describes an empirical study that addresses the question of how higher education institutions can disseminate effectively the outcomes of projects that seek to achieve large-scale change in teaching and learning. Traditionally, dissemination of innovation and good practice is strongly advocated within universities, but little…

Lost in translation? How project actors shape REDD+ policy and outcomes in Cambodia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pasgaard, Maya

2015-01-01

Forest protection policies to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) are currently being implemented by international donors, governments and conservation agencies across the developing world aiming for reduction of greenhouse gases while ensuring fair distribution...... of benefits. This paper draws on a case study in northern Cambodia to analyse how conservation practitioners and the local forest management committees engaged in implementing REDD+ actively translate and influence the policy and its implementation in accordance with their respective interests through...... particular communication strategies. When assessing project progress and outcomes, the conservation practitioners involved in implementing projects show an interest in emphasising positive project assessments by downplaying potential project complications, and by primarily communicating with pro...

Addressing the security of a future sustainable power system: The Danish SOSPO project

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Yang, Guangya; Jóhannsson, Hjörtur; Lind, Morten

2012-01-01

evaluated to secure the operation from both transmission and distribution levels. The Danish SOSPO project is launched from 2012 targeting at the system security assessment in the control room for the future scenarios. Methods will be developed in this project to counteract with the future challenges......Current power systems have been undergoing in depth changes by the increasing use of renewable generations. At one hand, the grid is progressively more interconnected in order to collect the renewable generation from geographically dispersed places meanwhile reduce the risks of intermittency......; on the other, the power is increasingly generated at relative low voltage networks which in turn gives rise to new challenges in the conventional system design. The high governmental objective of greenhouse gas reduction provokes accelerating adoptation of the renewables. The effect of this has to be carefully...

Balancing energy, development and climate priorities in India. Current trends and future projections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shukla, P.R.; Garg, A.; Dhar, S.; Halsnaes, K.

2007-09-01

This report gives a short introduction to the project: Projecting future energy demand: Balancing development, energy and climate priorities in large developing countries. Furthermore, the report analyses Indian energy, development and climate change, followed by an assessment of cross-country results that gives a range of key indicators of the relationship between economic growth, energy, and local and global pollutants. The focus is on the energy sector policies that mainstream climate interests within development choices. (BA)

Linking brain electrical signals elicited by current outcomes with future risk decision-making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dandan eZhang

2014-03-01

Full Text Available The experience of current outcomes influences future decisions in various ways. The neural mechanism of this phenomenon may help to clarify the determinants of decision-making. In this study, thirty-nine young adults finished a risky gambling task by choosing between a high- and a low-risk option in each trial during electroencephalographic data collection. We found that risk-taking strategies significantly modulated mean amplitudes of the event-related potential (ERP component P3, particularly at the central scalp. The event-related spectral perturbation and the inter-trial coherence measurements of the independent component analysis (ICA data indicated that the stay vs. switch electrophysiological difference associated with subsequent decision-making was mainly due to fronto-central theta and left/right mu independent components. Event-related cross-coherence results suggested that the neural information of action monitoring and updating emerged in the fronto-central cortex and propagated to sensorimotor area for further behavior adjustment. Based on these findings of ERP and event-related oscillation (ERO measures, we proposed a neural model of the influence of current outcomes on future decisions.

Projection displays and MEMS: timely convergence for a bright future

Science.gov (United States)

Hornbeck, Larry J.

1995-09-01

Projection displays and microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) have evolved independently, occasionally crossing paths as early as the 1950s. But the commercially viable use of MEMS for projection displays has been illusive until the recent invention of Texas Instruments Digital Light Processing TM (DLP) technology. DLP technology is based on the Digital Micromirror DeviceTM (DMD) microchip, a MEMS technology that is a semiconductor digital light switch that precisely controls a light source for projection display and hardcopy applications. DLP technology provides a unique business opportunity because of the timely convergence of market needs and technology advances. The world is rapidly moving to an all- digital communications and entertainment infrastructure. In the near future, most of the technologies necessary for this infrastrucutre will be available at the right performance and price levels. This will make commercially viable an all-digital chain (capture, compression, transmission, reception decompression, hearing, and viewing). Unfortunately, the digital images received today must be translated into analog signals for viewing on today's televisions. Digital video is the final link in the all-digital infrastructure and DLP technoogy provides that link. DLP technology is an enabler for digital, high-resolution, color projection displays that have high contrast, are bright, seamless, and have the accuracy of color and grayscale that can be achieved only by digital control. This paper contains an introduction to DMD and DLP technology, including the historical context from which to view their developemnt. The architecture, projection operation, and fabrication are presented. Finally, the paper includes an update about current DMD business opportunities in projection displays and hardcopy.

Cocaine dependent individuals discount future rewards more than future losses for both cocaine and monetary outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Matthew W; Bruner, Natalie R; Johnson, Patrick S

2015-01-01

Cocaine dependence and other forms of drug dependence are associated with steeper devaluation of future outcomes (delay discounting). Although studies in this domain have typically assessed choices between monetary gains (e.g., receive less money now versus receive more money after a delay), delay discounting is also applicable to decisions involving losses (e.g., small loss now versus larger delayed loss), with gains typically discounted more than losses (the "sign effect"). It is also known that drugs are discounted more than equivalently valued money. In the context of drug dependence, however, relatively little is known about the discounting of delayed monetary and drug losses and the presence of the sign effect. In this within-subject, laboratory study, delay discounting for gains and losses was assessed for cocaine and money outcomes in cocaine-dependent individuals (n=89). Both cocaine and monetary gains were discounted at significantly greater rates than cocaine and monetary losses, respectively (i.e., the sign effect). Cocaine gains were discounted significantly more than monetary gains, but cocaine and monetary losses were discounted similarly. Results suggest that cocaine is discounted by cocaine-dependent individuals in a systematic manner similar to other rewards. Because the sign effect was shown for both cocaine and money, delayed aversive outcomes may generally have greater impact than delayed rewards in shaping present behavior in this population. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Model Projections of Future Fluvial Sediment Delivery to Major Deltas Under Environmental Change

Science.gov (United States)

Darby, S. E.; Dunn, F.; Nicholls, R. J.; Cohen, S.; Zarfl, C.

2017-12-01

Deltas are important hot spots for climate change impacts on which over half a billion people live worldwide. Most of the world's deltas are sinking as a result of natural and anthropogenic subsidence and due to eustatic sea level rise. The ability to predict rates of delta aggradation is therefore critical to assessments of the extent to which sedimentation can potentially offset sea level rise, but our ability to make such predictions is severely hindered by a lack of insight into future trends of the fluvial sediment load supplied to their deltas by feeder watersheds. To address this gap we investigate fluvial sediment fluxes under future environmental change for a selection (47) of the world's major river deltas. Specifically, we employed the numerical model WBMsed to project future variations in mean annual fluvial sediment loads under a range of environmental change scenarios that account for changes in climate, socio-economics and dam construction. Our projections indicate a clear decrease (by 34 to 41% on average, depending on the specific scenario) in future fluvial sediment supply to most of the 47 deltas. These reductions in sediment delivery are driven primarily by anthropogenic disturbances, with reservoir construction being the most influential factor globally. Our results indicate the importance of developing new management strategies for reservoir construction and operation.

Review on the Projections of Future Storminess over the North Atlantic European Region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tina Mölter

2016-04-01

Full Text Available This is an overview of the results from previously published climate modeling studies reporting on projected aspects of future storminess over the North Atlantic European region (NAER in the period 2020–2190. Changes in storminess are summarized for seven subregions in the study area and rated by a categorical evaluation scheme that takes into account emission scenarios and modeling complexity in the reviewed studies. Although many of the reviewed studies reported an increase in the intensity of high-impact wind speed and extreme cyclone frequency in the second half of the 21st century, the projections of aspects of future storminess over the NAER differed regionally. There is broad consensus that the frequency and intensity of storms, cyclones, and high-impact wind speed will increase over Central and Western Europe, and these changes will probably have the potential to produce more damage. In contrast, future extratropical storminess over Southern Europe is very likely to decrease. For Northern and Eastern Europe the results of the evaluation are inconclusive, because there is an indication of increasing as well as decreasing development of the evaluated aspects of future storminess. Concerning the storm track, we found indications of a likely north- and eastward shift in most assessed studies. Results from three studies suggest a northeastward shift of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

The Impact of Group Design Projects in Engineering on Achievement Goal Orientations and Academic Outcomes

Science.gov (United States)

Rambo-Hernandez, Karen E.; Atadero, Rebecca A.; Balgopal, Meena

2017-01-01

This study examined the impact of incorporating group design projects into a second-year engineering class on achievement goal orientations and two academic outcomes: concept inventory and final exam scores. In this study, two sections were taught using lecture format, but one section also completed three group design projects as part of their…

Using Student Learning and Development Outcomes to Evaluate a First-Year Undergraduate Group Video Project

Science.gov (United States)

Jensen, Murray; Mattheis, Allison; Johnson, Brady

2012-01-01

Students in an interdisciplinary undergraduate introductory course were required to complete a group video project focused on nutrition and healthy eating. A mixed-methods approach to data collection involved observing and rating video footage of group work sessions and individual and focus group interviews. These data were analyzed and used to evaluate the effectiveness of the assignment in light of two student learning outcomes and two student development outcomes at the University of Minnesota. Positive results support the continued inclusion of the project within the course, and recommend the assignment to other programs as a viable means of promoting both content learning and affective behavioral objectives. PMID:22383619

Taking stock of project value creation: A structured literature review with future directions for research and practice

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Laursen, Markus; Svejvig, Per

2016-01-01

This paper aims to take stock of what we know about project value creation and to present future directions for research and practice. We performed an explorative and unstructured literature review, which was subsequently paired with a structured literature review. We join several research areas...... by adopting the project value creation perspective on literature relating to benefits, value, performance, and success in projects. Our review includes 111 contributions analyzed through both an inductive and deductive approach. We find that relevant literature dates back to the early 1980s, and the still...... developing value-centric view has been the subject of many publications in recent years. We contribute to research on project value creation through four directions for future research: rejuvenating value management through combining value, benefits, and costs; supplementing value creation with value capture...

Cataract Surgery Outcomes in Glaucomatous Eyes: Results From the Veterans Affairs Ophthalmic Surgery Outcomes Data Project.

Science.gov (United States)

Turalba, Angela; Payal, Abhishek R; Gonzalez-Gonzalez, Luis A; Cakiner-Egilmez, Tulay; Chomsky, Amy S; Vollman, David E; Baze, Elizabeth F; Lawrence, Mary; Daly, Mary K

2015-10-01

To compare visual acuity outcomes, vision-related quality of life, and complications related to cataract surgery in eyes with and without glaucoma. Retrospective cohort study. Cataract surgery outcomes in cases with and without glaucoma from the Veterans Affairs Ophthalmic Surgical Outcomes Data Project were compared. We identified 608 glaucoma cases and 4306 controls undergoing planned cataract surgery alone. After adjusting for age, pseudoexfoliation, small pupil, prior ocular surgery, and anterior chamber depth, we found that glaucoma cases were more likely to have posterior capsular tear with vitrectomy (odds ratio [OR] 1.8, P = .03) and sulcus intraocular lens placement (OR 1.65, P = .03) during cataract surgery. Glaucoma cases were more likely to have postoperative inflammation (OR 1.73, P < .0001), prolonged elevated intraocular pressure (OR 2.96, P = .0003), and additional surgery within 30 days (OR 1.92, P = .03). Mean best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) and Visual Function Questionnaire (VFQ) scores significantly improved after cataract surgery in both groups (P < .0001), but there were larger improvements in BCVA (P = .01) and VFQ composite scores (P < .0001) in the nonglaucoma vs the glaucoma group. A total of 3621 nonglaucoma cases (94.1%) had postoperative BCVA 20/40 or better, compared to 466 glaucoma cases (89.6%) (P = .0003). Eyes with glaucoma are at increased risk for complications and have more modest visual outcomes after cataract surgery compared to eyes without glaucoma. Despite this, glaucoma patients still experience significant improvement in vision-related outcomes after cataract extraction. Further study is needed to explore potential factors that influence cataract surgery outcomes in glaucomatous eyes. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Future fire emissions associated with projected land use change in Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Marlier, M. E.; DeFries, R. S.; Pennington, D.; Ordway, E.; Nelson, E.; Mickley, L.; Koplitz, S.

2013-12-01

Indonesia has experienced rapid land use change in past decades as forests and peatlands are cleared for agricultural development, including oil palm and timber plantations1. Fires are the predominant method of clearing and the subsequent emissions can have important public health impacts by contributing to regional particulate matter and ozone concentrations2. This regional haze was dramatically seen in Singapore during June 2013 due to the transport of emissions from fires in Sumatra. Our study is part of a larger project that will quantify the public health impact of various land use development scenarios for Sumatra over the coming decades. Here, we describe how we translate economic projections of land use change into future fire emissions inventories for GEOS-Chem atmospheric transport simulations. We relate past GFED3 fire emissions3 to detailed 1-km land use change data and MODIS fire radiative power observations, and apply these relationships to future estimates of land use change. The goal of this interdisciplinary project is to use modeling results to interact with policy makers and influence development strategies in ways that protect public health. 1Miettinen et al. 2011. Deforestation rates in insular Southeast Asia between 2000 and 2010. Glob. Change Biol.,17 (7), 2261-2270. 2Marlier et al. 2013. El Niño and health risks from landscape fire emissions in southeast Asia. Nature Clim. Change, 3, 131-136. 3van der Werf et al. 2010. Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997-2009). Atmos. Chem. Physics, 10 (23), 11707-11735.

Role and future subjects of support project 'research activity on radiation etc. by high school students'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iimoto, Takeshi; Fujimoto, Noboru; Nakamura, Takashi

2014-01-01

This is a report of the project of MEXT(The Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology) to support high school students researching radiation etc. This subject research consists of an exchange meeting, independence research, and a presentation meeting of the results. Media introduced the project and this was a very reputable project. However, regrettably this support project was broken off in the business year of 2012. In this document, the outline of the support project for seven years is introduced and the possibility of future deployment is discussed. (author)

Projecting future mortality in the Netherlands taking into account mortality delay and smoking

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Janssen, F.; de Beer, J.A.A.

2016-01-01

Estimates of future mortality often prove inaccurate as conventional extrapolative mortality projection methods do not capture the impact of smoking nor the mortality delay: the shift in the age-at-death distribution towards older ages. The added value of incorporating information on smoking into

Future projections of extreme precipitation using Advanced Weather Generator (AWE-GEN) over Peninsular Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Syafrina, A. H.; Zalina, M. D.; Juneng, L.

2014-09-01

A stochastic downscaling methodology known as the Advanced Weather Generator, AWE-GEN, has been tested at four stations in Peninsular Malaysia using observations available from 1975 to 2005. The methodology involves a stochastic downscaling procedure based on a Bayesian approach. Climate statistics from a multi-model ensemble of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs were calculated and factors of change were derived to produce the probability distribution functions (PDF). New parameters were obtained to project future climate time series. A multi-model ensemble was used in this study. The projections of extreme precipitation were based on the RCP 6.0 scenario (2081-2100). The model was able to simulate both hourly and 24-h extreme precipitation, as well as wet spell durations quite well for almost all regions. However, the performance of GCM models varies significantly in all regions showing high variability of monthly precipitation for both observed and future periods. The extreme precipitation for both hourly and 24-h seems to increase in future, while extreme of wet spells remain unchanged, up to the return periods of 10-40 years.

Electrification Futures Study: End-Use Electric Technology Cost and Performance Projections through 2050

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jadun, Paige [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); McMillan, Colin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Steinberg, Daniel [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Muratori, Matteo [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Vimmerstedt, Laura [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2017-12-01

This report is the first in a series of Electrification Futures Study (EFS) publications. The EFS is a multiyear research project to explore widespread electrification in the future energy system of the United States. More specifically, the EFS is designed to examine electric technology advancement and adoption for end uses in all major economic sectors as well as electricity consumption growth and load profiles, future power system infrastructure development and operations, and the economic and environmental implications of widespread electrification. Because of the expansive scope and the multiyear duration of the study, research findings and supporting data will be published as a series of reports, with each report released on its own timeframe.

Assessing community-based conservation projects: A systematic review and multilevel analysis of attitudinal, behavioral, ecological, and economic outcomes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brooks Jeremy

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Community-based conservation (CBC promotes the idea that long-term conservation success requires engaging with, and providing benefits for local communities. Though widespread, CBC projects are not always successful or free of controversy. With criticisms on all sides of the conservation debates, it is critical to have a better understanding of (1 whether CBC is an effective conservation tool, and (2 of the factors associated with the success or failure of CBC projects, and the scale at which these factors operate. Recent CBC reviews have typically examined only a single resource domain, have limited geographic scope, consider only one outcome, or ignore the nested nature of socioecological systems. To remedy these issues, we use a newly coded global comparative database of CBC projects identified by systematic review to evaluate success in four outcome domains (attitudes, behaviors, ecological, economic and explore synergies and tradeoffs among these outcomes. We test hypotheses about how features of the national context (H-NC, project design (H-PD, and local community characteristics (H-CC affect these four measures of success. Methods To add to a sample of 62 projects that we used from previous systematic reviews, we systematically searched the conservation literature using six terms in four online databases. To increase the number of projects for each country in order to conduct a multilevel analysis, we also conducted a secondary search using the Advancing Conservation in a Social Context online library. We coded projects for 65 pieces of information. We conducted bivariate analyses using two-dimensional contingency tables and proportional odds logistic regression and conducted multivariate analyses by fitting reduced form proportional odds logistic regression models that were selected using a forward stepwise AIC approach. Results The primary and secondary searches produced 74 new projects to go along with the 62

The Midwifery Legacies Project: history, progress, and future directions.

Science.gov (United States)

Moore-Davis, Tonia L; McGee, Karen B; Moore, Elaine M; Paine, Lisa L

2015-01-01

The Midwifery Legacies Project, formerly known as the OnGoing Group, was founded as an annual greeting card outreach aimed at maintaining contact with midwives as they approached retirement and beyond. In 2009, the importance of documenting personal and professional stories of midwives arose out of a bequest by a midwife who was relatively unknown outside of the community she served. The result has been the evolution of a robust collection of stories, which are known as the 20th Century Midwife Story Collection. Between 2009 and 2014, more than 120 US midwives aged 65 years or older were interviewed by a midwife, a student midwife, or a professional filmmaker. Collectively, these midwives' stories offer an intimate snapshot of the social, political, and cultural influences that have shaped US midwifery during the past half century. Individually, the stories honor and recognize midwives' contributions to the profession and the women they have served. This article details the development, progress, and future directions of the Midwifery Legacies Project. © 2015 by the American College of Nurse-Midwives.

The Influence of Future Time Perspective on Worker Outcomes: The Role of Job Crafting

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kooij, T.A.M.; Tims, M.; Akkermans, J.

2017-01-01

This two-wave study aimed to examine future time perspective (FTP) as an antecedent of job crafting, and in turn job crafting as a mediator in associations between FTP and work outcomes. Based on the lifespan socio-emotional selectivity theory, we expected that open-ended and limited FTP would evoke

EU Framework 6 Project: Predictive Toxicology (PredTox)-overview and outcome

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suter, Laura; Schroeder, Susanne; Meyer, Kirstin; Gautier, Jean-Charles; Amberg, Alexander; Wendt, Maria; Gmuender, Hans; Mally, Angela; Boitier, Eric; Ellinger-Ziegelbauer, Heidrun; Matheis, Katja; Pfannkuch, Friedlieb

2011-01-01

In this publication, we report the outcome of the integrated EU Framework 6 Project: Predictive Toxicology (PredTox), including methodological aspects and overall conclusions. Specific details including data analysis and interpretation are reported in separate articles in this issue. The project, partly funded by the EU, was carried out by a consortium of 15 pharmaceutical companies, 2 SMEs, and 3 universities. The effects of 16 test compounds were characterized using conventional toxicological parameters and 'omics' technologies. The three major observed toxicities, liver hypertrophy, bile duct necrosis and/or cholestasis, and kidney proximal tubular damage were analyzed in detail. The combined approach of 'omics' and conventional toxicology proved a useful tool for mechanistic investigations and the identification of putative biomarkers. In our hands and in combination with histopathological assessment, target organ transcriptomics was the most prolific approach for the generation of mechanistic hypotheses. Proteomics approaches were relatively time-consuming and required careful standardization. NMR-based metabolomics detected metabolite changes accompanying histopathological findings, providing limited additional mechanistic information. Conversely, targeted metabolite profiling with LC/GC-MS was very useful for the investigation of bile duct necrosis/cholestasis. In general, both proteomics and metabolomics were supportive of other findings. Thus, the outcome of this program indicates that 'omics' technologies can help toxicologists to make better informed decisions during exploratory toxicological studies. The data support that hypothesis on mode of action and discovery of putative biomarkers are tangible outcomes of integrated 'omics' analysis. Qualification of biomarkers remains challenging, in particular in terms of identification, mechanistic anchoring, appropriate specificity, and sensitivity.

Future changes in tropical cyclone activity projected by multi-physics and multi-SST ensemble experiments using the 60-km-mesh MRI-AGCM

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Murakami, Hiroyuki [Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC)/Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan); University of Hawaii at Manoa, International Pacific Research Center, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, Honolulu, Hawaii (United States); Mizuta, Ryo; Shindo, Eiki [Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), Climate Research Department, Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan)

2012-11-15

Uncertainties in projected future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity are investigated using future (2075-2099) ensemble projections of global warming under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario. Twelve ensemble experiments are performed using three different cumulus convection schemes and four different assumptions for prescribed future sea surface temperatures (SSTs). All ensemble experiments consistently project significant reductions in global and hemispheric TC genesis numbers as well as reductions in TC frequency of occurrence (TCF) and TC genesis frequency (TGF) in the western North Pacific, South Indian Ocean, and South Pacific Ocean. TCF and TGF are projected to increase over the central Pacific which is consistent with the findings of Li et al. (2010). Inter-experimental variations of projected future changes in TGF and TC genesis number are caused mainly by differences in large-scale dynamical parameters and SST anomalies. Thermodynamic parameters are of secondary importance for variations in TGF and TC genesis number. These results imply that differences in SST spatial patterns can cause substantial variations and uncertainties in projected future changes of TGF and TC numbers at ocean-basin scales. (orig.)

Acidic deposition: State of science and technology. Report 14. Methods for projecting future changes in surface water acid-base chemistry. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thornton, K.W.; Marmorek, D.; Ryan, P.F.; Heltcher, K.; Robinson, D.

1990-09-01

The objectives of the report are to: critically evaluate methods for projecting future effects of acidic deposition on surface water acid-base chemistry; review and evaluate techniques and procedures for analyzing projection uncertainty; review procedures for estimating regional lake and stream population attributes; review the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Direct/Delayed Response Project (DDRP) methodology for projecting the effects of acidic deposition on future changes in surface water acid-base chemistry; and present the models, uncertainty estimators, population estimators, and proposed approach selected to project the effects of acidic deposition on future changes in surface water acid-base chemistry in the NAPAP 1990 Integrated Assessment and discuss the selection rationale

History of optical theory of reflecting telescopes and implications for future projects

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Raymond N.

1997-03-01

This contribution, The History of Optical Theory of Reflecting Telescopes and Implications for Future Projects, is a shortened form of the Karl Schwarzschild lecture given in Bochum in September 1993. Some material has been added from an invited paper given in Padua in December 1992. For a full account, with figures and tables, the reader is referred to these two papers.

Organizational Enablers for Governance and Governmentality of Projects

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Müller, Ralf; Pemsel, Sofia; Shao, Jingting

2014-01-01

This study identifies the organizational enablers for governance in the realm of projects. We first conceptualize organizational enablers as comprising of process facilitators and discursive abilities, each with its own factors and mechanisms. Then we apply this concept to the literature on proje......, and through development of self-responsible, self-organizing people for governmentality in project settings. Questions for future research are indicated....... governance, governance of projects and governmentality. Outcomes indicate that governance is enabled through different forms of flexibility at different levels of governance, institutional setup and authority at the project level, flexible structures and mindsets of people at the organizational level...

On-Line Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management: Using Learning Outcome Statements To Design Projects.

Science.gov (United States)

Pettijohn, James B.; Ragan, Gay A.; Ragan, Kent P.

2003-01-01

Describes an Internet-based project to familiarize students with online investment analysis and stock portfolio management. Outlines a process for writing learning outcomes that address three levels of cognition: knowledge/comprehension, application/analysis, and synthesis/evaluation. (SK)

Cognitive and Socio-Affective Outcomes of Project-Based Learning: Perceptions of Greek Second Chance School Students

Science.gov (United States)

Koutrouba, Konstantina; Karageorgou, Elissavet

2013-01-01

The present questionnaire-based study was conducted in 2010 in order to examine 677 Greek Second Chance School (SCS) students' perceptions about the cognitive and socio-affective outcomes of project-based learning. Data elaboration, statistical and factor analysis showed that the participants found that project-based learning offered a second…

The Halden Reactor Project workshop meeting on control room development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miberg, Ann Britt; Green, Marie; Haukenes, Hanne; Larsen, Marit; Seim, Lars Aage; Veland, Oeystein

1999-03-01

The 'Control Room Development' workshop was organised in. Halden, November 5-6, 1998. The purpose of the workshop was to bring forward recommendations for the future use of HAMMLAB with respect to control room development. The workshop comprised thirteen presentations summarising current issues and status in control room development projects and related projects. Following the presentations, five working groups were formed. The purpose of the working groups was to establish a set of recommendations for the future use of HAMMLAB. Each working group developed a set of recommendations. The outcomes of the working groups' discussions were summarised in plenum by the working group chairs. During the workshop, all participants excluding the Halden Project staff were asked to fill in a questionnaire indicating which research topics they found most interesting to pursue in future HAMMLAB research. The purpose of this report is to summarise the workshop participants' presentations, the working groups' discussions, and the recommendations given by the workshop participants concerning the future use of HAMMLAB (author) (ml)

Long-term durum wheat monoculture: modelling and future projection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ettore Bernardoni

2012-03-01

Full Text Available The potential effects of future climate change on grain production of a winter durum wheat cropping system were investigated. Based on future climate change projections, derived from a statistical downscaling process applied to the HadCM3 general circulation model and referred to two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B1, the response on yield and aboveground biomass (AGB and the variation in total organic carbon (TOC were explored. The software used in this work is an hybrid dynamic simulation model able to simulate, under different pedoclimatic conditions, the processes involved in cropping system such as crop growth and development, water and nitrogen balance. It implements different approaches in order to ensure accurate simulation of the mainprocess related to soil-crop-atmosphere continuum.The model was calibrated using soil data, crop yield, AGB and phenology coming from a long-term experiment, located in Apulia region. The calibration was performed using data collected in the period 1978–1990; validation was carried out on the 1991–2009 data. Phenology simulation was sufficiently accurate, showing some limitation only in predicting the physiological maturity. Yields and AGBs were predicted with an acceptable accuracy during both calibration and validation. CRM resulted always close to optimum value, EF in every case scored positive value, the value of index r2 was good, although in some cases values lower than 0.6 were calculated. Slope of the linear regression equation between measured and simulated values was always close to 1, indicating an overall good performance of the model. Both future climate scenarios led to a general increase in yields but a slightly decrease in AGB values. Data showed variations in the total production and yield among the different periods due to the climate variation. TOC evolution suggests that the combination of temperature and precipitation is the main factor affecting TOC variation under future scenarios

Aligning BIM with FM: streamlining the process for future projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Colleen Kasprzak

2012-12-01

Full Text Available A study performed by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST, USA in 2004 found that owners account for approximately $10.6 billion of the $15.8 billion total inadequate interoperability costs of U.S. capital facility projects in 2002. Because of these inefficiency costs, it becomes vital that information produced during the design and construction phases of a project be transferred into operations with maximum leverage to the end users. However, very few owners have defined these informational needs or developed an integration strategy into existing maintenance management systems. To increase operational efficiency, an organization must first develop an understanding of their operating systems, as well as identify how Building Information Modeling (BIM will add value to their daily tasks. The Pennsylvania State University (PSU has a unique opportunity to diversely implement BIM processes because not only does the University act as an owner, but also as designer and construction manager on the majority of projects. The struggle that PSU faces is one that is unique only to owners with a large, existing, multifaceted building inventory. This paper outlines the current initiative by the Office of Physical Plant (OPP, the asset manager at PSU, to develop an information exchange framework between BIM and FM applications to be used internally. As a result of this research, PSU has been able to define owner operational requirements for future projects and develop a flexible integration framework to support additional BIM tasks and information exchanges.

Football Players' Perceptions of Future Risk of Concussion and Concussion-Related Health Outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Baugh, Christine M; Kroshus, Emily; Kiernan, Patrick T; Mendel, David; Meehan, William P

2017-02-15

Concussion is increasingly recognized as a risk of participation in contact and collision sports. There have been few examinations of athletes' perceptions of their susceptibility to concussion or concussion-related health consequences. We examine college football players' perceptions of their risk of sustaining a concussion and concussion-related health consequences in their future, whether these perceptions change over time, and how concussion history is related to perceived future risk of concussion and concussion-related health consequences. A survey was administered to National Collegiate Athletic Association Division I Football Championship Series athletes on 10 teams in 2013 and to nine of those teams in 2014. Athletes answered questions assessing their perceptions of concussion and potential concussion-related health consequences. Approximately 40% of athletes believed there was a strong possibility that they would sustain a concussion in the future, while approximately one-in-four thought a concussion would make them miss a few games. About one-in-10 athletes predicted dementia, Alzheimer's disease, or chronic traumatic encephalopathy would develop from concussions. These beliefs were stronger among athletes who had sustained previous concussions. Across the two years studied, athletes' perceptions of the risk of concussion and missing a few games because of concussion decreased significantly. Overall, a substantial proportion of college football players believe they will have long-term health consequences as a result of sustaining sport-related concussions. The true incidence and prevalence of many of these outcomes are unknown. Further research is needed to determine whether athletes have an accurate perception of the risks of these outcomes developing.

Future projections of extreme precipitation using Advanced Weather Generator (AWE-GEN over Peninsular Malaysia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. H. Syafrina

2014-09-01

Full Text Available A stochastic downscaling methodology known as the Advanced Weather Generator, AWE-GEN, has been tested at four stations in Peninsular Malaysia using observations available from 1975 to 2005. The methodology involves a stochastic downscaling procedure based on a Bayesian approach. Climate statistics from a multi-model ensemble of General Circulation Model (GCM outputs were calculated and factors of change were derived to produce the probability distribution functions (PDF. New parameters were obtained to project future climate time series. A multi-model ensemble was used in this study. The projections of extreme precipitation were based on the RCP 6.0 scenario (2081–2100. The model was able to simulate both hourly and 24-h extreme precipitation, as well as wet spell durations quite well for almost all regions. However, the performance of GCM models varies significantly in all regions showing high variability of monthly precipitation for both observed and future periods. The extreme precipitation for both hourly and 24-h seems to increase in future, while extreme of wet spells remain unchanged, up to the return periods of 10–40 years.

PROJECT FUTURE IN SOCIO AFFECTIVE DIMENSION: HOW TO BUILD THE PERCEPTIONS OF STUDENTS SECONDARY EDUCATION IN PORTUGAL AND HIGH SCHOOL IN BRAZIL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marilia Frassetto de Araujo

2016-04-01

Full Text Available This research aimed to understand how the "future project" regarding the socio-affective dimension is built by high school students in Portugal and in Brazil. The project was based on the concept of culture and adolescence as a cultural construction. The definition of future project was adopted in the above mentioned dimension characterized by defining affections and passions. Through focus groups with adolescents it was possible to analyze their narratives about the future project on the socio-affective dimension; to get to know the speeches produced by them on issues regarding sexuality, gender and and sexual diversity. The survey found out that most adolescents had projects for their future. Moreover, it pointed out the differences that permeate several boys’ and girls’ behaviors. It was concluded that the questioning of these issues from ethical questions that allow teenagers to reflect on their relationships among peers, in the community, with family, responsibility and criticality is essential. And education is central to this process.

Climate change projections: past and future mysteries of climate science

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meehl, Gerald A.

2007-01-01

Full text: Full text: The history of climate change has been wrapped in mysteries. Some have been solved, and we await the outcome of others. The major mystery of 20th century climate was why did temperatures rise in the early part of the century, level off, and then rise rapidly again after the 1970s? It has only been in the past seven years that advances in climate modelling have allowed us to deconstruct 20th century climate to pull apart the separate influences of natural and human-caused factors. This has allowed us to understand the subtle interplay between these various influences that produced the temperature time evolution. Another mystery has involved extreme weather and climate events. Again, climate models have allowed us to quantify how the small changes in average climate translate into much larger changes of regional extremes. The biggest remaining mysteries in climate science involve the future, and how the climate will evolve over the coming century. Up until now, various scenarios postulating different possible outcomes for 21st century climate, assuming different types of human activities, have been run in the climate models to provide a wide range of possible futures. However, more recently the outlook for global warming is being framed as a combination of mitigation and adaptation. If policy actions are taken to mitigate part of the problem of global warming, then climate models must be relied on to quantify the time-evolving picture of how much regional climate change we must adapt to. Solving this mystery will be the biggest and most important challenge ever taken on by the climate modelling community

Computing the distribution of return levels of extreme warm temperatures for future climate projections

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pausader, M.; Parey, S.; Nogaj, M. [EDF/R and D, Chatou Cedex (France); Bernie, D. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)

2012-03-15

In order to take into account uncertainties in the future climate projections there is a growing demand for probabilistic projections of climate change. This paper presents a methodology for producing such a probabilistic analysis of future temperature extremes. The 20- and 100-years return levels are obtained from that of the normalized variable and the changes in mean and standard deviation given by climate models for the desired future periods. Uncertainty in future change of these extremes is quantified using a multi-model ensemble and a perturbed physics ensemble. The probability density functions of future return levels are computed at a representative location from the joint probability distribution of mean and standard deviation changes given by the two combined ensembles of models. For the studied location, the 100-years return level at the end of the century is lower than 41 C with an 80% confidence. Then, as the number of model simulations is low to compute a reliable distribution, two techniques proposed in the literature (local pattern scaling and ANOVA) have been used to infer the changes in mean and standard deviation for the combinations of RCM and GCM which have not been run. The ANOVA technique leads to better results for the reconstruction of the mean changes, whereas the two methods fail to correctly infer the changes in standard deviation. As standard deviation change has a major impact on return level change, there is a need to improve the models and the different techniques regarding the variance changes. (orig.)

Future extreme events in European climate: An exploration of regional climate model projections

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Beniston, M.; Stephenson, D.B.; Christensen, O.B.

2007-01-01

-90) and future (2071-2 100) climate on the basis of regional climate model simulations produced by the PRUDENCE project. A summary of the main results follows. Heat waves - Regional surface warming causes the frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves to increase over Europe. By the end of the twenty first...

An Exploration of the Effect of Community Engagement in Research on Perceived Outcomes of Partnered Mental Health Services Projects*

Science.gov (United States)

Khodyakov, Dmitry; Stockdale, Susan; Jones, Felica; Ohito, Elizabeth; Jones, Andrea; Lizaola, Elizabeth; Mango, Joseph

2011-01-01

Mental health research projects address sensitive issues for vulnerable populations and are implemented in complex environments. Community-Based Participatory Research approaches are recommended for health research on vulnerable populations, but little is known about how variation in participation affects outcomes of partnered research projects. We developed a conceptual model demonstrating the impact of community engagement in research on outcomes of partnered projects. We collected data on key constructs from community and academic leaders of 21 sampled partnered research projects in two cycles of an NIMH research center. We conducted empirical analyses to test the model. Our findings suggest that community engagement in research is positively associated with perceived professional development, as well as political and community impact. PMID:22582144

Educational Cooperation between Thailand and Cambodia: Outcomes on Human Development, International Understanding and Future Prospect

Science.gov (United States)

Kijtorntham, Wichuda; Ruangdej, Phumjit; Saisuwan, Chatchanog

2015-01-01

Thailand and Cambodia set up educational cooperation since 1996, before signed a Memorandum of Understanding on Cooperation in the Promotion of Education in 2003. This research aimed to investigate outcomes of educational cooperation projects on Cambodia human development and international understanding, process of participatory learning and…

Cost-Savings Analysis of the Better Beginnings, Better Futures Community-Based Project for Young Children and Their Families: A 10-Year Follow-up.

Science.gov (United States)

Peters, Ray DeV; Petrunka, Kelly; Khan, Shahriar; Howell-Moneta, Angela; Nelson, Geoffrey; Pancer, S Mark; Loomis, Colleen

2016-02-01

This study examined the long-term cost-savings of the Better Beginnings, Better Futures (BBBF) initiative, a community-based early intervention project for young children living in socioeconomically disadvantaged neighborhoods during their transition to primary school. A quasi-experimental, longitudinal two-group design was used to compare costs and outcomes for children and families in three BBBF project neighborhoods (n = 401) and two comparison neighborhoods (n = 225). A cost-savings analysis was conducted using all project costs for providing up to 4 years of BBBF programs when children were in junior kindergarten (JK) (4 years old) to grade 2 (8 years old). Data on 19 government service cost measures were collected from the longitudinal research sample from the time the youth were in JK through to grade 12 (18 years old), 10 years after ending project participation. The average family incremental net savings to government of providing the BBBF project was $6331 in 2014 Canadian dollars. When the BBBF monetary return to government as a ratio of savings to costs was calculated, for every dollar invested by the government, a return of $2.50 per family was saved. Findings from this study have important implications for government investments in early interventions focused on a successful transition to primary school as well as parenting programs and community development initiatives in support of children's development.

Electrification Futures Study: End-Use Electric Technology Cost and Performance Projections through 2050

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vimmerstedt, Laura J. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Jadun, Paige [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); McMillan, Colin A. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Steinberg, Daniel C. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Muratori, Matteo [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu T. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2018-01-02

This report provides projected cost and performance assumptions for electric technologies considered in the Electrification Futures Study, a detailed and comprehensive analysis of the effects of widespread electrification of end-use service demands in all major economic sectors - transportation, residential and commercial buildings, and industry - for the contiguous United States through 2050. Using extensive literature searches and expert assessment, the authors identify slow, moderate, and rapid technology advancement sensitivities on technology cost and performance, and they offer a comparative analysis of levelized cost metrics as a reference indicator of total costs. The identification and characterization of these end-use service demand technologies is fundamental to the Electrification Futures Study. This report, the larger Electrification Futures Study, and the associated data and methodologies may be useful to planners and analysts in evaluating the potential role of electrification in an uncertain future. The report could be broadly applicable for other analysts and researchers who wish to assess electrification and electric technologies.

Expectations from different perspectives on future work outcome of young adults with intellectual and developmental disabilities

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Holwerda, Anja; Brouwer, Sandra; de Boer, Michiel R.; Groothoff, Johan W.; van der Klink, Jac J. L.

2015-01-01

Purpose Expectations strongly influence future employment outcomes and social networks seem to mediate employment success of young adults with intellectual and developmental disabilities. The aim of this study is to examine the expectations of young adults with intellectual and developmental

Expectations from Different Perspectives on Future Work Outcome of Young Adults with Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Holwerda, A.; Brouwer, S.; de Boer, M.R.; Groothoff, J.W.; van der Klink, J.J.L.

2015-01-01

Purpose Expectations strongly influence future employment outcomes and social networks seem to mediate employment success of young adults with intellectual and developmental disabilities. The aim of this study is to examine the expectations of young adults with intellectual and developmental

Expectations from Different Perspectives on Future Work Outcome of Young Adults with Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Holwerda, Anja; Brouwer, Sandra; de Boer, Michiel R.; Groothoff, Johan W.; van der Klink, Jac J. L.

Purpose Expectations strongly influence future employment outcomes and social networks seem to mediate employment success of young adults with intellectual and developmental disabilities. The aim of this study is to examine the expectations of young adults with intellectual and developmental

Projecting future precipitation and temperature at sites with diverse climate through multiple statistical downscaling schemes

Science.gov (United States)

Vallam, P.; Qin, X. S.

2017-10-01

Anthropogenic-driven climate change would affect the global ecosystem and is becoming a world-wide concern. Numerous studies have been undertaken to determine the future trends of meteorological variables at different scales. Despite these studies, there remains significant uncertainty in the prediction of future climates. To examine the uncertainty arising from using different schemes to downscale the meteorological variables for the future horizons, projections from different statistical downscaling schemes were examined. These schemes included statistical downscaling method (SDSM), change factor incorporated with LARS-WG, and bias corrected disaggregation (BCD) method. Global circulation models (GCMs) based on CMIP3 (HadCM3) and CMIP5 (CanESM2) were utilized to perturb the changes in the future climate. Five study sites (i.e., Alice Springs, Edmonton, Frankfurt, Miami, and Singapore) with diverse climatic conditions were chosen for examining the spatial variability of applying various statistical downscaling schemes. The study results indicated that the regions experiencing heavy precipitation intensities were most likely to demonstrate the divergence between the predictions from various statistical downscaling methods. Also, the variance computed in projecting the weather extremes indicated the uncertainty derived from selection of downscaling tools and climate models. This study could help gain an improved understanding about the features of different downscaling approaches and the overall downscaling uncertainty.

'Sapphire' project. Objectives and outcomes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shkolnik, V.S.

1997-01-01

'Sapphire' Project contains the US assistance in purchasing/exporting 600 kg of highly enriched uranium from the State Holding Association 'Ulba' Uranium Plant, and compensatory equipment and service deliveries under the mutually concerted list. The compensatory payments were as separate projects in conformity with Kazakhstan enterprises needs, participation quota of which was determined by the Kazakhstan Government. Realization Milestones. Activity on Separate Projects: - basic 'Sapphire' part includes medical projects; - Kazakhstan Services were equipped with computers by the American International Development Agency for Taxation Services of Kazakhstan and by US Department of Energy for Monitoring preparation of Kazakhstan Atomic energy Agency. - 7 Research projects are being realized via the International Science and Technological Center; - export control. It has been realized as the equipment delivery under the concerted list; - equipping of nuclear materials accounting and control system at 'Ulba' Association enterprises

Expectations from different perspectives on future work outcome of young adults with intellectual and developmental disabilities.

Science.gov (United States)

Holwerda, Anja; Brouwer, Sandra; de Boer, Michiel R; Groothoff, Johan W; van der Klink, Jac J L

2015-03-01

Expectations strongly influence future employment outcomes and social networks seem to mediate employment success of young adults with intellectual and developmental disabilities. The aim of this study is to examine the expectations of young adults with intellectual and developmental disabilities from special needs education, their parents and their school teachers regarding future work and the extent to which these expectations predict work outcome. Data on 341 young adults with intellectual or developmental disabilities, coming from special needs education, aged 17-20 years, and with an ability to work according to the Social Security Institute were examined. The school teacher's expectation was the only perspective that significantly predicted entering competitive employment, with a complementary effect of the expectation of parents and a small additional effect of the expectation of the young adult. Expectations of school teachers and parents are valuable in predicting work outcome. Therefore, it is important for professionals working with the young adult in the transition from school to work to incorporate the knowledge of school teachers and parents regarding the abilities of the young adult to enter competitive employment as a valuable source of information.

Innovation projects and visions on the future : Ambition and commitment in the Agropark case

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hoes, Anne Charlotte; Regeer, Barbara; Zweekhorst, Marjolein

2012-01-01

Since the 1980s, Dutch agricultural policy focuses on changing the agricultural sector into a more sustainable sector. In this article we explore an Agropark visioning initiative and four Agropark innovation projects to provide further understanding in how visions on the future influence innovation

ENGINEERING STUDY FOR THE 200 AREA EFFLUENT TREATMENT FACILITY (ETF) SECONDARY WASTE TREATMENT OF PROJECTED FUTURE WASTE FEEDS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

LUECK, K.J.

2004-01-01

This report documents an engineering study conducted to evaluate alternatives for treating secondary waste in the secondary treatment train (STT) of the Hanford Site 200 Area Effluent Treatment Facility (ETF). The study evaluates ETF STT treatment alternatives and recommends preferred alternatives for meeting the projected future missions of the ETF. The preferred alternative(s) will process projected future ETF influents to produce a solid waste acceptable for final disposal on the Hanford Site. The main text of this report summarizes the ETF past and projected operations, lists the assumptions about projected operations that provide the basis for the engineering evaluation, and summarizes the evaluation process. The evaluation process includes identification of available modifications to the current ETF process, screens those modifications for technical viability, evaluates the technically viable alternatives, and provides conclusions and recommendations based on that evaluation

Capability and dependency in the Newcastle 85+ cohort study. Projections of future care needs.

Science.gov (United States)

Jagger, Carol; Collerton, Joanna C; Davies, Karen; Kingston, Andrew; Robinson, Louise A; Eccles, Martin P; von Zglinicki, Thomas; Martin-Ruiz, Carmen; James, Oliver F W; Kirkwood, Tom B L; Bond, John

2011-05-04

Little is known of the capabilities of the oldest old, the fastest growing age group in the population. We aimed to estimate capability and dependency in a cohort of 85 year olds and to project future demand for care. Structured interviews at age 85 with 841 people born in 1921 and living in Newcastle and North Tyneside, UK who were permanently registered with participating general practices. Measures of capability included were self-reported activities of daily living (ADL), timed up and go test (TUG), standardised mini-mental state examination (SMMSE), and assessment of urinary continence in order to classify interval-need dependency. To project future demand for care the proportion needing 24-hour care was applied to the 2008 England and Wales population projections of those aged 80 years and over by gender. Of participants, 62% (522/841) were women, 77% (651/841) lived in standard housing, 13% (106/841) in sheltered housing and 10% (84/841) in a care home. Overall, 20% (165/841) reported no difficulty with any of the ADLs. Men were more capable in performing ADLs and more independent than women. TUG validated self-reported ADLs. When classified by 'interval of need' 41% (332/810) were independent, 39% (317/810) required help less often than daily, 12% (94/810) required help at regular times of the day and 8% (67/810) required 24-hour care. Of care-home residents, 94% (77/82) required daily help or 24-hour care. Future need for 24-hour care for people aged 80 years or over in England and Wales is projected to increase by 82% from 2010 to 2030 with a demand for 630,000 care-home places by 2030. This analysis highlights the diversity of capability and levels of dependency in this cohort. A remarkably high proportion remain independent, particularly men. However a significant proportion of this population require 24-hour care at home or in care homes. Projections for the next 20 years suggest substantial increases in the number requiring 24-hour care due to

Future Flows Climate: an ensemble of 1-km climate change projections for hydrological application in Great Britain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Prudhomme

2012-11-01

Full Text Available The dataset Future Flows Climate was developed as part of the project ''Future Flows and Groundwater Levels'' to provide a consistent set of climate change projections for the whole of Great Britain at both space and time resolutions appropriate for hydrological applications, and to enable climate change uncertainty and climate variability to be accounted for in the assessment of their possible impacts on the environment.

Future Flows Climate is derived from the Hadley Centre's ensemble projection HadRM3-PPE that is part of the basis of UKCP09 and includes projections in available precipitation (water available to hydrological processes after snow and ice storages have been accounted for and potential evapotranspiration. It corresponds to an 11-member ensemble of transient projections from January 1950 to December 2098, each a single realisation from a different variant of HadRM3. Data are provided on a 1-km grid over the HadRM3 land areas at a daily (available precipitation and monthly (PE time step as netCDF files.

Because systematic biases in temperature and precipitation were found between HadRM3-PPE and gridded temperature and precipitation observations for the 1962–1991 period, a monthly bias correction procedure was undertaken, based on a linear correction for temperature and a quantile-mapping correction (using the gamma distribution for precipitation followed by a spatial downscaling. Available precipitation was derived from the bias-corrected precipitation and temperature time series using a simple elevation-dependant snow-melt model. Potential evapotranspiration time series were calculated for each month using the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith equations and bias-corrected temperature, cloud cover, relative humidity and wind speed from HadRM3-PPE along with latitude of the grid and the day of the year.

Future Flows Climate is freely available for non-commercial use under certain licensing conditions. It is the

Outcome mapping as methodology to monitor and evaluate community informatics projects: A case study

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Herselman, M

2010-10-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to indicate how Outcome Mapping (OM) can be used as a methodology to monitor and evaluate a specific developmental informatics project currently under way in the Meraka Institute. OM was applied in the Broadband for All...

Student and Faculty Outcomes of Undergraduate Science Research Projects by Geographically Dispersed Students

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lawton Shaw

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Senior undergraduate research projects are important components of most undergraduate science degrees. The delivery of such projects in a distance education format is challenging. Athabasca University (AU science project courses allow distance education students to complete research project courses by working with research supervisors in their local area, coordinated at a distance by AU faculty. This paper presents demographics and course performance for 155 students over five years. Pass rates were similar to other distance education courses. Research students were surveyed by questionnaire, and external supervisors and AU faculty were interviewed, to examine the outcomes of these project courses for each group. Students reported high levels of satisfaction with the course, local supervisors, and faculty coordinators. Students also reported that the experience increased their interest in research, and the probability that they would pursue graduate or additional certification. Local supervisors and faculty affirmed that the purposes of project courses are to introduce the student to research, provide opportunity for students to use their cumulative knowledge, develop cognitive abilities, and independent thinking. The advantages and challenges associated with this course model are discussed.

Capital planning for operating theatres based on projecting future theatre requirements.

Science.gov (United States)

Sheehan, Jennifer A; Tyler, Peter; Jayasinha, Hirani; Meleady, Kathleen T; Jones, Neill

2011-05-01

During 2006, NSW and ACT Health Departments jointly engaged KPMG to develop an Operating Theatre Requirements' Projection Model and an accompanying planning guideline. A research scan was carried out to identify drivers of surgical demand, theatre capacity and theatre performance, as well as locating existing approaches to modelling operating theatre requirements for planning purposes. The project delivered a Microsoft Excel-based model for projecting future operating theatre requirements, together with an accompanying guideline for use of the model and interpretation of its outputs. It provides a valuable addition to the suite of tools available to Health staff for service and capital planning. The model operates with several limitations, largely due to being data dependent, and the state and completeness of available theatre activity data. However, the operational flexibility built into the model allows users to compensate for these limitations, on a case by case basis, when the user has access to suitable, local data. The design flexibility of the model means that updating the model as improved data become available is not difficult; resulting in revisions being able to be made quickly, and disseminated to users rapidly.

Future Scenarios as a Research Tool: Investigating Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation Options and Outcomes for the Great Barrier Reef, Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

Evans, Louisa S; Hicks, Christina C; Fidelman, Pedro; Tobin, Renae C; Perry, Allison L

2013-01-01

Climate change is a significant future driver of change in coastal social-ecological systems. Our knowledge of impacts, adaptation options, and possible outcomes for marine environments and coastal industries is expanding, but remains limited and uncertain. Alternative scenarios are a way to explore potential futures under a range of conditions. We developed four alternative future scenarios for the Great Barrier Reef and its fishing and tourism industries positing moderate and more extreme (2-3 °C above pre-industrial temperatures) warming for 2050 and contrasting 'limited' and 'ideal' ecological and social adaptation. We presented these scenarios to representatives of key stakeholder groups to assess the perceived viability of different social adaptation options to deliver desirable outcomes under varied contexts.

Divergent projections of future land use in the United States arising from different models and scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Sohl, Terry L.; Wimberly, Michael; Radeloff, Volker C.; Theobald, David M.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.

2016-01-01

A variety of land-use and land-cover (LULC) models operating at scales from local to global have been developed in recent years, including a number of models that provide spatially explicit, multi-class LULC projections for the conterminous United States. This diversity of modeling approaches raises the question: how consistent are their projections of future land use? We compared projections from six LULC modeling applications for the United States and assessed quantitative, spatial, and conceptual inconsistencies. Each set of projections provided multiple scenarios covering a period from roughly 2000 to 2050. Given the unique spatial, thematic, and temporal characteristics of each set of projections, individual projections were aggregated to a common set of basic, generalized LULC classes (i.e., cropland, pasture, forest, range, and urban) and summarized at the county level across the conterminous United States. We found very little agreement in projected future LULC trends and patterns among the different models. Variability among scenarios for a given model was generally lower than variability among different models, in terms of both trends in the amounts of basic LULC classes and their projected spatial patterns. Even when different models assessed the same purported scenario, model projections varied substantially. Projections of agricultural trends were often far above the maximum historical amounts, raising concerns about the realism of the projections. Comparisons among models were hindered by major discrepancies in categorical definitions, and suggest a need for standardization of historical LULC data sources. To capture a broader range of uncertainties, ensemble modeling approaches are also recommended. However, the vast inconsistencies among LULC models raise questions about the theoretical and conceptual underpinnings of current modeling approaches. Given the substantial effects that land-use change can have on ecological and societal processes, there

Urban ninth-grade girls interactions with and outcomes from a design-oriented physics project

Science.gov (United States)

Higginbotham, Thomas Eric Miksad

Past literature has documented a shrinking but persistent gap in physics and engineering for females, both in school and in the workforce. A commonly recommended strategy to invite girls into science at the school level is to have students work on design-projects in groups, which has been shown to increase all students' learning outcomes and attitudes towards science. Students (n=28) in a ninth-grade inner-city physics class participated in such a project, in which they built remotely operated underwater vehicles (ROV's) over the course of one month. Students (n=23) in a comparison classroom learned the same content using the Active Physics curriculum during the same time frame. Mixed methods were used to study the ROV classroom. Students in both classes were given pre- and post-physics content tests. Qualitative data collected during the project included field notes, video, and teacher interviews. Macro-level data analysis was done, which informed further micro-analysis. Macro-analysis revealed significantly higher learning outcomes for the ROV class than for the non-ROV class. Within the ROV class, girls, and in particular, girls in female-majority groups had increased learning outcomes and high levels of interest and engagement with the project, while girls in mixed-sex and male-majority groups did not. Qualitative macro-analysis revealed that in all of the female-majority groups, females took leadership roles within the groups, while in all of the non female-majority groups, males took leadership roles. The only groups in which girls completely disengaged from the project were mixed-sex or male majority groups. Case studies and cross case analysis suggested that girls foregrounded group process over product, and used the level of group unity as a metric of the groups' success. Groups led by girls were more cooperative and exhibited distributed leadership and participation. These findings were interpreted through lenses of expectation states theory and social

Environmental change and Rift Valley fever in eastern Africa: projecting beyond HEALTHY FUTURES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Taylor

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF, a relatively recently emerged zoonosis endemic to large parts of sub-Saharan Africa that has the potential to spread beyond the continent, have profound health and socio-economic impacts, particularly in communities where resilience is already low. Here output from a new, dynamic disease model [the Liverpool RVF (LRVF model], driven by downscaled, bias-corrected climate change data from an ensemble of global circulation models from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project run according to two radiative forcing scenarios [representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5], is combined with results of a spatial assessment of social vulnerability to the disease in eastern Africa. The combined approach allowed for analyses of spatial and temporal variations in the risk of RVF to the end of the current century. Results for both scenarios highlight the high-risk of future RVF outbreaks, including in parts of eastern Africa to date unaffected by the disease. The results also highlight the risk of spread from/to countries adjacent to the study area, and possibly farther afield, and the value of considering the geography of future projections of disease risk. Based on the results, there is a clear need to remain vigilant and to invest not only in surveillance and early warning systems, but also in addressing the socio-economic factors that underpin social vulnerability in order to mitigate, effectively, future impacts.

Response of loblolly pine to complete woody and herbaceous control: projected yields and economic outcomes - the COMProject

Science.gov (United States)

James H. Miller; R.L. Busby; B.R. Zutter; S.M. Zedaker; M.B. Edwards; R.A. Newbold

1995-01-01

Abstract.Age-8 and -9 data from the 13 study plantations of the Competition Omission Monitoring Project (COMP) were used to project yields and derive economic outcomes for loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.). COMP treatments were chop-burn, complete woody plant control, complete herbaceous plant control for 4 years, and complete woody...

Superconductors and novel ceramics for future communication technologies. Project: Cooler and cryotechnology. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haefner, H.U.; Rolff, N.; Thummes, G.

2004-02-01

The project involved the production of a 6W rate at 77K stirling chiller for a HTS telecommunication experiment on the 'International Space Station' (project partner Bosch Telecom) and the production of a prototype long-lived stirling pulsed tube chiller of 10W rate at 77K for future applications in telecommunication. The projected was terminated prematurely. The following results were obtained: 1. The low-capacity chiller 'Mono-Kaltfinger' (stirling cold finger with displacement piston) achieved up to 5.3% COP at 80 K. 2. The chilling capacity was 10 W at 80 K for a maximum compressor uptake of 250 W. 3. An efficient pulsed tube chiller was constructed, as well as 4. A long-lived compressor with flexure bearings. (orig.) [de

ISTIMES project: status and outcomes

Science.gov (United States)

Cuomo, V.; Proto, M.; Soldovieri, F.

2012-04-01

Thermography; Ground Penetrating Radar; low-frequency Geophysical Techniques; ground based SAR and optical cameras for the assessment of the dynamical behaviour of the infrastructure. A great effort has been devoted to "transfer" these novel and state-of art technologies from the laboratory experience to actual on field applications by adapting/improving them and developing prototypes for the specific application domain of the monitoring of transport and critical infrastructures. Sensor synergy, data cross correlation and novel concepts of information fusion have permitted to carry out a multi-method, multi-resolution and multi-scale electromagnetic detection and monitoring of the infrastructure, including surface and subsurface aspects. The project has allowed to develop an ICT architecture based on web sensors and serviceoriented- technologies that comply with specific end-user requirements, including interoperability, economical convenience, exportability, efficiency and reliability. The efforts have focussed mainly to the creation of web based interfaces able to control "not standard" sensors, as the ones proposed in the project, and to the standardization necessary to have a full interoperability and modularity of the monitoring system. In addition, the system is able to provide a more easily accessible and transparent scheme for use by different end-users and to integrate the monitoring results and images with other kind of information such as GIS layer and historical datasets relating to the site. The ISTIMES system has been evaluated at two test sites and two test beds. At the two test sites of Montagnole rock-fall station (Chambery, France) and Hydrogeosite Laboratory (Potenza, Italy), the attention was posed to a thorough analysis of the performances of the in situ sensing techniques, by investigating, with good outcomes, also the possibility to correlate and have a synergy from the different sensors. In particular, it is worth noting that the experiment realized at

Projecting future summer mortality due to ambient ozone concentration and temperature changes

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Jae Young; Lee, Soo Hyun; Hong, Sung-Chul; Kim, Ho

2017-05-01

Climate change is known to affect the human health both directly by increased heat stress and indirectly by altering environments, particularly by altering the rate of ambient ozone formation in the atmosphere. Thus, the risks of climate change may be underestimated if the effects of both future temperature and ambient ozone concentrations are not considered. This study presents a projection of future summer non-accidental mortality in seven major cities of South Korea during the 2020s (2016-2025) and 2050s (2046-2055) considering changes in temperature and ozone concentration, which were predicted by using the HadGEM3-RA model and Integrated Climate and Air Quality Modeling System, respectively. Four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) were considered. The result shows that non-accidental summer mortality will increase by 0.5%, 0.0%, 0.4%, and 0.4% in the 2020s, 1.9%, 1.5%, 1.2%, and 4.4% in the 2050s due to temperature change compared to the baseline mortality during 2001-2010, under RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively, whereas the mortality will increase by 0.0%, 0.5%, 0.0%, and 0.5% in the 2020s, and 0.2%, 0.2%, 0.4%, and 0.6% in the 2050s due to ozone concentration change. The projection result shows that the future summer morality in South Korea is increased due to changes in both temperature and ozone, and the magnitude of ozone-related increase is much smaller than that of temperature-related increase, especially in the 2050s.

The Future of Family Medicine: a collaborative project of the family medicine community.

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, James C; Avant, Robert F; Bowman, Marjorie A; Bucholtz, John R; Dickinson, John R; Evans, Kenneth L; Green, Larry A; Henley, Douglas E; Jones, Warren A; Matheny, Samuel C; Nevin, Janice E; Panther, Sandra L; Puffer, James C; Roberts, Richard G; Rodgers, Denise V; Sherwood, Roger A; Stange, Kurt C; Weber, Cynthia W

2004-01-01

Recognizing fundamental flaws in the fragmented US health care systems and the potential of an integrative, generalist approach, the leadership of 7 national family medicine organizations initiated the Future of Family Medicine (FFM) project in 2002. The goal of the project was to develop a strategy to transform and renew the discipline of family medicine to meet the needs of patients in a changing health care environment. A national research study was conducted by independent research firms. Interviews and focus groups identified key issues for diverse constituencies, including patients, payers, residents, students, family physicians, and other clinicians. Subsequently, interviews were conducted with nationally representative samples of 9 key constituencies. Based in part on these data, 5 task forces addressed key issues to meet the project goal. A Project Leadership Committee synthesized the task force reports into the report presented here. The project identified core values, a New Model of practice, and a process for development, research, education, partnership, and change with great potential to transform the ability of family medicine to improve the health and health care of the nation. The proposed New Model of practice has the following characteristics: a patient-centered team approach; elimination of barriers to access; advanced information systems, including an electronic health record; redesigned, more functional offices; a focus on quality and outcomes; and enhanced practice finance. A unified communications strategy will be developed to promote the New Model of family medicine to multiple audiences. The study concluded that the discipline needs to oversee the training of family physicians who are committed to excellence, steeped in the core values of the discipline, competent to provide family medicine's basket of services within the New Model, and capable of adapting to varying patient needs and changing care technologies. Family medicine education

Autonoetic consciousness: Reconsidering the role of episodic memory in future-oriented self-projection.

Science.gov (United States)

Klein, Stanley B

2016-01-01

Following the seminal work of Ingvar (1985. "Memory for the future": An essay on the temporal organization of conscious awareness. Human Neurobiology, 4, 127-136), Suddendorf (1994. The discovery of the fourth dimension: Mental time travel and human evolution. Master's thesis. University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand), and Tulving (1985. Memory and consciousness. Canadian Psychology/PsychologieCanadienne, 26, 1-12), exploration of the ability to anticipate and prepare for future contingencies that cannot be known with certainty has grown into a thriving research enterprise. A fundamental tenet of this line of inquiry is that future-oriented mental time travel, in most of its presentations, is underwritten by a property or an extension of episodic recollection. However, a careful conceptual analysis of exactly how episodic memory functions in this capacity has yet to be undertaken. In this paper I conduct such an analysis. Based on conceptual, phenomenological, and empirical considerations, I conclude that the autonoetic component of episodic memory, not episodic memory per se, is the causally determinative factor enabling an individual to project him or herself into a personal future.

Projecting the Effect of Changes in Smoking and Obesity on Future Life Expectancy in the United States

OpenAIRE

Preston, Samuel H.; Stokes, Andrew; Mehta, Neil K.; Cao, Bochen

2013-01-01

We estimate the effects of declining smoking and increasing obesity on mortality in the United States over the period 2010?2040. Data on cohort behavioral histories are integrated into these estimates. Future distributions of body mass indices are projected using transition matrices applied to the initial distribution in 2010. In addition to projections of current obesity, we project distributions of obesity when cohorts are age 25. To these distributions, we apply death rates by current and ...

Projected changes in the future distribution and production of sessile oak forests near the xeric limit

Science.gov (United States)

Gulyás, Krisztina; Berki, Imre; Veperdi, Gábor

2017-04-01

As a result of regional climate change, most European countries are experiencing an increase in mean annual temperature and CO2 concentration and a decrease in mean annual precipitation. In low-elevation areas in Southeast Europe, where precipitation is a limiting factor, the projected climate change threatens the health, production, and potential distribution of forest ecosystems. The intensive summer droughts and commonly occurring extreme weather events create negative influences that cause health declines, changes in yield potential, and tree mortality. Due to the observed damages, attention has been focused on these problems. The impacts of climatic extremes cause difficulties in forest management; these difficulties occur more frequently in Hungary, which is a region that is the most sensitive to climatic extremes. Regional climate model simulations project that the frequency of extremely high temperatures and long-term dry periods will increase; both of these factors have negative effects on future tree species distribution and production. Thus, the aim of our study is to utilize the sessile oak (Quercus petraea) as a climate indicator tree species to investigate potential future distribution and estimate changes in growth trends. For future spatial distribution, we used the Fuzzy membership distribution model in a new Decision Support System (DSS) which was developed for the Hungarian forestry and agricultural sectors. Through study techniques we can employ DSS, which contains various environmental layers (topography, vegetation, past and projected future climate, soils, and hydrology), to create probability distribution maps. The results, based on 12 regional climate model simulations (www.ensembles-eu.org), show that the area of sessile oak forests is shrinking continuously and will continue to do so to the end of the 21st century. For future production estimations, we analysed intensive long-term growth monitoring network plots that were established in

Future Urban Climate Projection in A Tropical Megacity Based on Global and Regional Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Darmanto, N. S.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.

2017-12-01

Cities in Asian developing countries experience rapid transformation in urban morphology and energy consumption, which correspondingly affects urban climate. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled with improved single-layer urban canopy model incorporating realistic distribution of urban parameters and anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) in the tropic Jakarta Greater Area was conducted. Simulation was conducted during the dry months from 2006 to 2015 and agreed well with point and satellite observation. The same technology coupled with pseudo global warming (PGW) method based on representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenario 2.6 and 8.5 was conducted to produce futuristic climate condition in 2050. Projected urban morphology and AHE in 2050s were constructed using regional urban growing model with shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) among its inputs. Compact future urban configuration, based on SSP1, was coupled to RCP2.6. Unrestrained future urban configuration, based on SSP3, was coupled to RCP8.5. Results show that background warming from RCP 2.6 and 8.5 will increase background temperature by 0.55°C and 1.2°C throughout the region, respectively. Future projection of urban sprawl results to an additional 0.3°C and 0.5°C increase on average, with maximum increase of 1.1°C and 1.3°C due to urban effect for RCP2.6/compact and RCP8.5/unrestrained, respectively. Higher moisture content in urban area is indicated in the future due to higher evaporation. Change in urban roughness is likely affect slower wind velocity in urban area and sea breeze front inland penetration the future compare with current condition. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.

'What I want to do is get half a dozen of them and go and see Simon Cowell': Reflecting on participation and outcomes for people with dementia taking part in a creative musical project.

Science.gov (United States)

McCabe, Louise; Greasley-Adams, Corinne; Goodson, Katy

2015-11-01

This paper presents the findings from an evaluation of a creative musical project led by Scottish Opera. The project included people with dementia and their carers in the development, writing, design and performance of a musical production about their experiences of love. The project involved professional singers, artists and choreographers from the opera company. Activities involved practice sessions and performances. People with dementia and their carers reflected on positive outcomes from the project including improved confidence; being part of a group; improved physical strength and people seeing them in a new way. Within the evaluation framework they also reported on how the project had been run and gave ideas for future development. Key elements in the success of this project were the involvement of professionals, the kudos of working with a national organisation and the performances that, while daunting, provided unique and rewarding experiences. © The Author(s) 2013.

The MY NASA DATA Project: Preparing Future Earth and Environmental Scientists, and Future Citizens

Science.gov (United States)

Chambers, L. H.; Phelps, C. S.; Phipps, M.; Holzer, M.; Daugherty, P.; Poling, E.; Vanderlaan, S.; Oots, P. C.; Moore, S. W.; Diones, D. D.

2008-12-01

global Earth System. These armchair explorers learn to unite datasets in a region to learn about places like and unlike where they live. In a world that's becoming smaller and smaller with the aid of technology, projects like MND prepare our students for their global future. A teacher located in an area of California strongly impacted by pollution and potential climate changes noted that this project makes available data that are very relevant to issues that will affect her students' lives. She points out that not all scientific information they currently see is in a form that is understandable to an educated citizen, and that the experience with MND will enable her students to have better than average skills not only for deciphering scientific maps and graphs; but also for creating maps and graphics that successfully convey information to others.

A modelling framework to project future climate change impacts on streamflow variability and extremes in the West River, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Fei

2014-09-01

Full Text Available In this study, a hydrological modelling framework was introduced to assess the climate change impacts on future river flow in the West River basin, China, especially on streamflow variability and extremes. The modelling framework includes a delta-change method with the quantile-mapping technique to construct future climate forcings on the basis of observed meteorological data and the downscaled climate model outputs. This method is able to retain the signals of extreme weather events, as projected by climate models, in the constructed future forcing scenarios. Fed with the historical and future forcing data, a large-scale hydrologic model (the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, VIC was executed for streamflow simulations and projections at daily time scales. A bootstrapping resample approach was used as an indirect alternative to test the equality of means, standard deviations and the coefficients of variation for the baseline and future streamflow time series, and to assess the future changes in flood return levels. The West River basin case study confirms that the introduced modelling framework is an efficient effective tool to quantify streamflow variability and extremes in response to future climate change.

Status and Future Perspectives of the HIE-Isolde Project at CERN

CERN Document Server

Kadi, Y; Blumenfeld, Y; Calatroni, S; Catherall, R; Fraser, M A; Goddard, B; Parchet, D; Siesling, E; Venturini Delsolaro, W; Voulot, D; Williams, L R

2012-01-01

The High Intensity and Energy (HIE)-ISOLDE project aims at several important upgrades of the present ISOLDE radioactive beam facility at CERN. The main focus lies in the energy upgrade of the post-accelerated radionuclide beams from 3 MeV/u up to 10 MeV/u through the addition of superconducting cavities. This will open the possibility of many new types of experiments including transfer reactions throughout the nuclear chart. The first stage of this upgrade involves the design, construction, installation and commissioning of two high-β cryomodules downstream of REX-ISOLDE, the existing post-accelerator. Each cryomodule houses five high-β superconducting cavities and one superconducting solenoid. Prototypes of the Nb-sputtered Quarter Wave Resonators (QWRs) cavities for the new superconducting linear accelerator have been manufactured and are undergoing RF cold tests. The project also includes a design study of improved production targets to accommodate to the future increase of proton intensity delivered by ...

Group Projects in Social Work Education: The Influence of Group Characteristics and Moderators on Undergraduate Student Outcomes

Science.gov (United States)

Postlethwait, Ariana E.

2016-01-01

This study examined the impact of group size, group formation, group conflict, and division of labor on student outcomes in a group project for a sample of 112 BSW research seminar students at a large university in the Midwest. Students completed surveys on their experiences with the group project at the end of the semester. Multiple regression…

Reflections on Ethical Dilemmas in Working with So-Called "Vulnerable" and "Hard-to-Reach" Groups: Experiences from the Foodways and Futures Project

Science.gov (United States)

Gombert, Karolina; Douglas, Flora; McArdle, Karen; Carlisle, Sandra

2016-01-01

This article reflects on ethical limitations and dilemmas encountered during fieldwork of the Foodways and Futures project (2013-2016). Foodways and Futures is a qualitative action research project aimed at exploring the food choices of former homeless young people (aged 16-25) in Aberdeenshire. In Scotland, where over 13,000 young people become…

Muscle function is associated with future patient-reported outcomes in young adults with ACL injury

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Flosadottir, Vala; Roos, Ewa M; Ageberg, Eva

2016-01-01

performance and worse postural orientation were associated with worse KOOS scores 2 years later (rsp≥0.280, p≤0.045). Worse muscle power was associated with lower future ARS scores (rsp=0.281, p=0.044). CONCLUSIONS: The moderate associations suggest that improving muscle function during rehabilitation could...... and postural orientation 3 years (SD 0.85) after ACL injury. PROs at 3 and 5 years after injury included Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) subscales Function in sport and recreation (KOOS Sport/rec) and Knee-related Quality of life (KOOS QoL), KOOS item Q3 (KOOS Q3), Tegner Activity Scale...... improve present and future PROs....

Onshore wind energy potential over Iberia: present and future projections

Science.gov (United States)

Rochinha, Carlos A.; Santos, João A.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Pinto, Joaquim G.

2014-05-01

Onshore grid-connected wind power generation has been explored for more than three decades in the Iberian Peninsula. Further, increasing attention has been devoted to renewable energy sources in a climate change context. While advantages of wind energy are widely recognized, its distribution is not spatially homogeneous and not uniform throughout the year. Hence, understanding these spatial-temporal distributions is critical in power system planning. The present study aims at assessing the potential power output estimated from 10 m wind components simulated by a regional climate model (CCLM), driven by ERA40 reanalysis. Datasets are available on a grid with a high spatial resolution (approximately 20 km) and over a 40-yr period (1961-2000). Furthermore, several target sites, located in areas with high installed wind generation capacity, are selected for local-to-regional scale assessments. The results show that potential wind power is higher over northern Iberia, mostly in Cantabria and Galicia, while Andalucía and Cataluña record the lowest values. With respect to the intra-annual variability, summer is by far the season with the lowest potential energy outputs. Furthermore, the inter-annual variability reveals an overall downward long-term trend over the 40-yr period, particularly in the winter time series. A CCLM transient experiment, forced by the SRES A1B emission scenario, is also discussed for a future period (2041-2070), after a model validation/calibration process (bias corrections). Significant changes in the wind power potential are projected for the future throughout Iberia, but their magnitude largely depends on the locations. This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER- 019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010).

Local-scale projections of coral reef futures and implications of the Paris Agreement.

Science.gov (United States)

van Hooidonk, Ruben; Maynard, Jeffrey; Tamelander, Jerker; Gove, Jamison; Ahmadia, Gabby; Raymundo, Laurie; Williams, Gareth; Heron, Scott F; Planes, Serge

2016-12-21

Increasingly frequent severe coral bleaching is among the greatest threats to coral reefs posed by climate change. Global climate models (GCMs) project great spatial variation in the timing of annual severe bleaching (ASB) conditions; a point at which reefs are certain to change and recovery will be limited. However, previous model-resolution projections (~1 × 1°) are too coarse to inform conservation planning. To meet the need for higher-resolution projections, we generated statistically downscaled projections (4-km resolution) for all coral reefs; these projections reveal high local-scale variation in ASB. Timing of ASB varies >10 years in 71 of the 87 countries and territories with >500 km 2 of reef area. Emissions scenario RCP4.5 represents lower emissions mid-century than will eventuate if pledges made following the 2015 Paris Climate Change Conference (COP21) become reality. These pledges do little to provide reefs with more time to adapt and acclimate prior to severe bleaching conditions occurring annually. RCP4.5 adds 11 years to the global average ASB timing when compared to RCP8.5; however, >75% of reefs still experience ASB before 2070 under RCP4.5. Coral reef futures clearly vary greatly among and within countries, indicating the projections warrant consideration in most reef areas during conservation and management planning.

Future disability projections could be improved by connecting to the theory of a dynamic equilibrium

NARCIS (Netherlands)

B. Klijs (Bart); J.P. Mackenbach (Johan); A.E. Kunst (Anton)

2009-01-01

textabstractObjective Projections of future trends in the burden of disability could be guided by models linking disability to life expectancy, such as the dynamic equilibrium theory. This paper tests the key assumption of this theory that severe disability is associated to proximity to death

Projecting future temperature-related mortality in three largest Australian cities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guo, Yuming; Li, Shanshan; Liu, De Li; Chen, Dong; Williams, Gail; Tong, Shilu

2016-01-01

We estimated net annual temperature-related mortality in Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in Australia using 62 global climate model projections under three IPPC SRES CO_2 emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1). In all cities, all scenarios resulted in increases in summer temperature-related deaths for future decades, and decreases in winter temperature-related deaths. However, Brisbane and Sydney will increase the net annual temperature-related deaths in the future, while a slight decrease will happen in Melbourne. Additionally, temperature-related mortality will largely increase beyond the summer (including January, February, March, November and December) in Brisbane and Sydney, while temperature-related mortality will largely decrease beyond the winter in Melbourne. In conclusion, temperature increases for Australia are expected to result in a decreased burden of cold-related mortality and an increased burden of heat-related mortality, but the balance of these differences varied by city. In particular, the seasonal patterns in temperature-related deaths will be shifted. - Temperature increases result in a decreased burden of cold-related mortality and an increased burden of heat-related mortality, but the balance of these differences varied by city in Australia.

Evaluation of CMIP5 models for projection of future precipitation change in Bornean tropical rainforests

Science.gov (United States)

Hussain, Mubasher; Yusof, Khamaruzaman Wan; Mustafa, Muhammad Raza Ul; Mahmood, Rashid; Jia, Shaofeng

2017-10-01

We present the climate change impact on the annual and seasonal precipitation over Rajang River Basin (RRB) in Sarawak by employing a set of models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Based on the capability to simulate the historical precipitation, we selected the three most suitable GCMs (i.e. ACCESS1.0, ACCESS1.3, and GFDL-ESM2M) and their mean ensemble (B3MMM) was used to project the future precipitation over the RRB. Historical (1976-2005) and future (2011-2100) precipitation ensembles of B3MMM were used to perturb the stochastically generated future precipitation over 25 rainfall stations in the river basin. The B3MMM exhibited a significant increase in precipitation during 2080s, up to 12 and 8% increase in annual precipitation over upper and lower RRB, respectively, under RCP8.5, and up to 7% increase in annual precipitation under RCP4.5. On the seasonal scale, Mann-Kendal trend test estimated statistically significant positive trend in the future precipitation during all seasons; except September to November when we only noted significant positive trend for the lower RRB under RCP4.5. Overall, at the end of the twenty-first century, an increase in annual precipitation is noteworthy in the whole RRB, with 7 and 10% increase in annual precipitation under the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5, respectively.

Outlook for coastal plain forests: a subregional report from the Southern Forest Futures Project

Science.gov (United States)

Kier Klepzig; Richard Shelfer; Zanethia Choice

2014-01-01

The U.S. Coastal Plain consists of seven sections: the Northern Atlantic, Eastern Atlantic, Peninsular Florida, Southern Gulf, Middle Gulf-East, Middle Gulf-West, and Western Gulf. It covers a large area, consists of a diverse array of habitats, and supports a diverse array of uses. This report presents forecasts from the Southern Forest Futures Project that are...

Future projections of active-break spells of Indian summer monsoon in a climate change perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Sudeepkumar, B. L.; Babu, C. A.; Varikoden, Hamza

2018-02-01

The effect of global climate change on Indian summer monsoon has been analysed with special emphasis on active-break cycle. The changes in intensity and duration of active and break monsoon conditions towards the end of the century are studied by using 850 hPa zonal circulations. The analysis is carried out using twenty year climatology of historical period (1986-2005) and future projections (2080-2099) simulated as part of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Models are compared with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The models that effectively capture the circulation pattern of monsoon (JJAS) are considered for assessing the future climate in RCP 4.5 scenario. They are CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, GFDL-ESM2M, MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-LR. During the southwest monsoon period, the ensemble mean of models projects a strengthening of the wind speed towards north (north of 15°N) and weakening to the southern region (especially south of 12°N) which facilitates wetting of northern Indian regions and drying of southern peninsular regions. In the case of active-break conditions, the active spells are found to be strengthening over northern India and weakening over the peninsular India, the break spells intensify over southern tip of peninsular India indicating intense breaks. Increased propensity of short intense active days and decreased propensity of long active days are also projected by the models. The number of break spells does not show any significant changes.

75 FR 30410 - Disease, Disability, and Injury Prevention and Control Special Interest Projects (SIPs): Outcomes...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-06-01

... DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Disease, Disability, and Injury Prevention and Control Special Interest Projects (SIPs): Outcomes of Screening... 10(a)(2) of the Federal Advisory Committee Act (Pub. L. 92- 463), the Centers for Disease Control and...

International research and development projects in nuclear energy: Experience and future prospects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Strohl, P.

1983-01-01

From the very beginning nuclear energy appeared as a fruitful field for international co-operation and particularly for international projects and joint ventures. By pooling scientific, technical and financial resources, the participating countries sought to promote the development of technology and the transition of nuclear energy to the industrial stage. Governments and therefore intergovernmental organizations were the driving force behind the establishment of joint projects in various R and D sectors, often in association with industry and private research institutes. The situation changed considerably from the end of the 1960s onwards. Despite some remarkable technical achievements, international co-operation did not develop to the extent predicted at the outset. Industry took over in the exploitation of proven technologies, and industrial co-operation agreements have become an important feature in some key areas of nuclear energy. This trend raises questions as to the future of joint R and D projects organized through intergovernmental co-operation. Although such projects are still very useful, they tend to be concentrated in those few sectors which continue to be of direct interest to the Governments; for instance, fundamental research, radioactive waste management and nuclear safety. The position of nuclear energy has changed, and the benefits to be drawn from this form of international co-operation must be critically re-assessed accordingly. While advantage to be gained from international projects for countries which are the most advanced in the development of nuclear energy is not the same as it was at the beginning, the transfer of experience and knowledge to less advanced countries is still the main concern of projects dealing with safety and regulatory matters. The experience thus gained provides a very useful insight into the legal and institutional framework of joint projects

Future disability projections could be improved by connecting to the theory of a dynamic equilibrium

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Klijs, Bart; Mackenbach, Johan P.; Kunst, Anton E.

2011-01-01

Objective: Projections of future trends in the burden of disability could be guided by models linking disability to life expectancy, such as the dynamic equilibrium theory. This article tests the key assumption of this theory that severe disability is associated with proximity to death, whereas mild

The current shortage and future surplus of doctors: a projection of the future growth of the Japanese medical workforce.

Science.gov (United States)

Takata, Hideaki; Nagata, Hiroshi; Nogawa, Hiroki; Tanaka, Hiroshi

2011-05-27

Starting in the late 1980s, the Japanese government decreased the number of students accepted into medical school each year in order to reduce healthcare spending. The result of this policy is a serious shortage of doctors in Japan today, which has become a social problem in recent years. In an attempt to solve this problem, the Japanese government decided in 2007 to increase the medical student quota from 7625 to 8848. Furthermore, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), Japan's ruling party after the 2009 election, promised in their manifesto to increase the medical student quota to 1.5 times what it was in 2007, in order to raise the number of medical doctors to more than 3.0 per 1000 persons. It should be noted, however, that this rapid increase in the medical student quota may bring about a serious doctor surplus in the future, especially because the population of Japan is decreasing.The purpose of this research is to project the future growth of the Japanese medical doctor workforce from 2008 to 2050 and to forecast whether the proposed additional increase in the student quota will cause a doctor surplus. Simulation modeling of the Japanese medical workforce. Even if the additional increase in the medical student quota promised by the DPJ fails, the number of practitioners is projected to increase from 286 699 (2.25 per 1000 persons) in 2008 to 365 533 (over the national numerical goal of 3.0 per 1000) in 2024. The number of practitioners per 1000 persons is projected to further increase to 3.10 in 2025, to 3.71 in 2035, and to 4.69 in 2050. If the additional increase in the medical student quota promised by the DPJ is realized, the total workforce is projected to rise to 392 331 (3.29 per 1000 persons) in 2025, 464 296 (4.20 per 1,000 persons) in 2035, and 545 230 (5.73 per 1000 persons) in 2050. The plan to increase the medical student quota will bring about a serious doctor surplus in the long run.

Incorporating adaptive responses into future projections of coral bleaching.

Science.gov (United States)

Logan, Cheryl A; Dunne, John P; Eakin, C Mark; Donner, Simon D

2014-01-01

Climate warming threatens to increase mass coral bleaching events, and several studies have projected the demise of tropical coral reefs this century. However, recent evidence indicates corals may be able to respond to thermal stress though adaptive processes (e.g., genetic adaptation, acclimatization, and symbiont shuffling). How these mechanisms might influence warming-induced bleaching remains largely unknown. This study compared how different adaptive processes could affect coral bleaching projections. We used the latest bias-corrected global sea surface temperature (SST) output from the NOAA/GFDL Earth System Model 2 (ESM2M) for the preindustrial period through 2100 to project coral bleaching trajectories. Initial results showed that, in the absence of adaptive processes, application of a preindustrial climatology to the NOAA Coral Reef Watch bleaching prediction method overpredicts the present-day bleaching frequency. This suggests that corals may have already responded adaptively to some warming over the industrial period. We then modified the prediction method so that the bleaching threshold either permanently increased in response to thermal history (e.g., simulating directional genetic selection) or temporarily increased for 2-10 years in response to a bleaching event (e.g., simulating symbiont shuffling). A bleaching threshold that changes relative to the preceding 60 years of thermal history reduced the frequency of mass bleaching events by 20-80% compared with the 'no adaptive response' prediction model by 2100, depending on the emissions scenario. When both types of adaptive responses were applied, up to 14% more reef cells avoided high-frequency bleaching by 2100. However, temporary increases in bleaching thresholds alone only delayed the occurrence of high-frequency bleaching by ca. 10 years in all but the lowest emissions scenario. Future research should test the rate and limit of different adaptive responses for coral species across latitudes and

When, not if: The inescapability of an uncertain future

Science.gov (United States)

Lewandowsky, S.; Ballard, T.

2014-12-01

Uncertainty is an inherent feature of most scientific endeavours, and many political decisions must be made in the presence of scientific uncertainty. In the case of climate change, there is evidence that greater scientific uncertainty increases the risk associated with the impact of climate change. Scientific uncertainty thus provides an impetus for cutting emissions rather than delaying action. In contrast to those normative considerations, uncertainty is frequently cited in political and public discourse as a reason to delay mitigation. We examine ways in which this gap between public and scientific understanding of uncertainty can be bridged. In particular, we sought ways to communicate uncertainty in a way that better calibrates people's risk perceptions with the projected impact of climate change. We report two behavioural experiments in which uncertainty about the future was expressed either as outcome uncertainty or temporal uncertainty. The conventional presentation of uncertainty involves uncertainty about an outcome at a given time—for example, the range of possible sea level rise (say 50cm +/- 20cm) by a certain date. An alternative presentation of the same situation presents a certain outcome ("sea levels will rise by 50cm") but places the uncertainty into the time of arrival ("this may occur as early as 2040 or as late as 2080"). We presented participants with a series of statements and graphs indicating projected increases in temperature, sea levels, ocean acidification, and a decrease in artic sea ice. In the uncertain magnitude condition, the statements and graphs reported the upper and lower confidence bounds of the projected magnitude and the mean projected time of arrival. In the uncertain time of arrival condition, they reported the upper and lower confidence bounds of the projected time of arrival and the mean projected magnitude. The results show that when uncertainty was presented as uncertain time of arrival rather than an uncertain

Unpacking Neighborhood Influences on Education Outcomes: Setting the Stage for Future Research. NBER Working Paper No. 16055

Science.gov (United States)

Harding, David J.; Gennetian, Lisa; Winship, Christopher; Sanbonmatsu, Lisa; Kling, Jeffrey R.

2010-01-01

We motivate future neighborhood research through a simple model that considers youth educational outcomes as a function of neighborhood context, neighborhood exposure, individual vulnerability to neighborhood effects, and non-neighborhood educational inputs--with a focus on effect heterogeneity. Research using this approach would require three…

Evaluating the response of Lake Prespa (SW Balkan) to future climate change projections from a high-resolution model

Science.gov (United States)

van der Schriek, Tim; Varotsos, Konstantinos V.; Giannakopoulos, Christos

2017-04-01

The Mediterranean stands out globally due to its sensitivity to (future) climate change. Projections suggest that the Balkans will experience precipitation and runoff decreases of up to 30% by 2100. However, these projections show large regional spatial variability. Mediterranean lake-wetland systems are particularly threatened by projected climate changes that compound increasingly intensive human impacts (e.g. water extraction, drainage, pollution and dam-building). Protecting the remaining systems is extremely important for supporting global biodiversity. This protection should be based on a clear understanding of individual lake-wetland hydrological responses to future climate changes, which requires fine-resolution projections and a good understanding of the impact of hydro-climate variability on individual lakes. Climate change may directly affect lake level (variability), volume and water temperatures. In turn, these variables influence lake-ecology, habitats and water quality. Land-use intensification and water abstraction multiply these climate-driven changes. To date, there are no projections of future water level and -temperature of individual Mediterranean lakes under future climate scenarios. These are, however, of crucial importance to steer preservation strategies on the relevant catchment-scale. Here we present the first projections of water level and -temperature of the Prespa Lakes covering the period 2071-2100. These lakes are of global significance for biodiversity, and of great regional socio-economic importance as a water resource and tourist attraction. Impact projections are assessed by the Regional Climate Model RCA4 of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) driven by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology global climate model MPI-ESM-LR under two RCP future emissions scenarios, the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5, with the simulations carried out in the framework of EURO-CORDEX. Temperature, evapo(transpi)ration and

The essential value of projects in faculty development.

Science.gov (United States)

Gusic, Maryellen E; Milner, Robert J; Tisdell, Elizabeth J; Taylor, Edward W; Quillen, David A; Thorndyke, Luanne E

2010-09-01

Projects--planned activities with specific goals and outcomes--have been used in faculty development programs to enhance participant learning and development. Projects have been employed most extensively in programs designed to develop faculty as educators. The authors review the literature and report the results of their 2008 study of the impact of projects within the Pennsylvania State University College of Medicine Junior Faculty Development Program, a comprehensive faculty development program. Using a mixed-methods approach, the products of project work, the academic productivity of program graduates, and the impact of projects on career development were analyzed. Faculty who achieved the most progress on their projects reported the highest number of academic products related to their project and the highest number of overall academic achievements. Faculty perceived that their project had three major effects on their professional development: production of a tangible outcome, development of a career focus, and development of relationships with mentors and peers. On the basis of these findings and a review of the literature, the authors conclude that projects are an essential element of a faculty development program. Projects provide a foundation for future academic success by enabling junior faculty to develop and hone knowledge and skills, identify a career focus and gain recognition within their community, generate scholarship, allocate time to academic work, and establish supportive relationships and collaborative networks. A list of best practices to successfully incorporate projects within faculty development programs is provided.

California's N-power fate turns on Sundesert outcome

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murnane, T.

1978-01-01

The outcome of controversial legislation on the construction of nuclear power plants will affect future energy supplies for California businesses. Unless legislation excludes the proposed Sundesert nuclear plant (the first to have a site review) from California's stringent laws, utility spokesmen see no way to provide the base load of energy demand. The California Energy Commission reduced the project to half size and issued 49 conditions that must be met to get the Commission's approval. The Commission will decide after public hearings whether to recommend exemption, although the legislature is not bound to the recommendation. Legislators may also consider a bill to shorten the application time for all energy projects as a move to help assure future energy supplies and to lower future energy costs. The Commission Chairman opposes nuclear plants and favors alternative energy sources, while Governor Brown, who also prefers alternative sources, has not ruled out nuclear plants to provide energy for the state's industry. The legislature will debate nuclear safety measures passed in 1976 but since declared unconstitutional

COMPARISON OF THREE METHODS TO PROJECT FUTURE BASELINE CARBON EMISSIONS IN TEMPERATE RAINFOREST, CURINANCO, CHILE

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Patrick Gonzalez; Antonio Lara; Jorge Gayoso; Eduardo Neira; Patricio Romero; Leonardo Sotomayor

2005-07-14

Deforestation of temperate rainforests in Chile has decreased the provision of ecosystem services, including watershed protection, biodiversity conservation, and carbon sequestration. Forest conservation can restore those ecosystem services. Greenhouse gas policies that offer financing for the carbon emissions avoided by preventing deforestation require a projection of future baseline carbon emissions for an area if no forest conservation occurs. For a proposed 570 km{sup 2} conservation area in temperate rainforest around the rural community of Curinanco, Chile, we compared three methods to project future baseline carbon emissions: extrapolation from Landsat observations, Geomod, and Forest Restoration Carbon Analysis (FRCA). Analyses of forest inventory and Landsat remote sensing data show 1986-1999 net deforestation of 1900 ha in the analysis area, proceeding at a rate of 0.0003 y{sup -1}. The gross rate of loss of closed natural forest was 0.042 y{sup -1}. In the period 1986-1999, closed natural forest decreased from 20,000 ha to 11,000 ha, with timber companies clearing natural forest to establish plantations of non-native species. Analyses of previous field measurements of species-specific forest biomass, tree allometry, and the carbon content of vegetation show that the dominant native forest type, broadleaf evergreen (bosque siempreverde), contains 370 {+-} 170 t ha{sup -1} carbon, compared to the carbon density of non-native Pinus radiata plantations of 240 {+-} 60 t ha{sup -1}. The 1986-1999 conversion of closed broadleaf evergreen forest to open broadleaf evergreen forest, Pinus radiata plantations, shrublands, grasslands, urban areas, and bare ground decreased the carbon density from 370 {+-} 170 t ha{sup -1} carbon to an average of 100 t ha{sup -1} (maximum 160 t ha{sup -1}, minimum 50 t ha{sup -1}). Consequently, the conversion released 1.1 million t carbon. These analyses of forest inventory and Landsat remote sensing data provided the data to

The TRIDEC Project: Future-Saving FOSS GIS Applications for Tsunami Early Warning

Science.gov (United States)

Loewe, P.; Wächter, J.; Hammitzsch, M.

2011-12-01

The Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 killed over 240,000 people in 14 countries and inundated the affected shorelines with waves reaching heights up to 30m. This natural disaster coincided with an information catastrophy, as potentially life-saving early warning information existed, yet no means were available to deliver it to the communities under imminent threat. Tsunami Early Warning Capabilities have improved in the meantime by continuing development of modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). However, recent tsunami events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key challenge for ongoing TEWS research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of reliable early warning messages. Since 2004, the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CEGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already: The German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS), a European project funded under the sixth Framework Programme (FP6). These developments are continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises) funded under the European Union's seventh Framework Programme (FP7). This ongoing project focuses on real-time intelligent information management in Earth management and its long-term application. All TRIDEC developments are based on Free and Open Source Software (FOSS) components and industry standards where-ever possible. Tsunami Early Warning in TRIDEC is also based on mature system architecture models to ensure long-term usability and the flexibility to adapt to future generations of Tsunami sensors. All open source software produced by the project consortium are foreseen to be published on FOSSLAB, a publicly available

Pointing the Way to the Future of Project Management: How the Past and Present Point Towards Project Management's Future

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Ballister, Robert

2003-01-01

.... The lessons learned from those projects, coupled with a look at project management history in general, will be checked against a current project management theory to determine if the focus of today's...

Projecting the Future for Design Science Research: An Action‐Case Based Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Baskerville, Richard; Pries-Heje, Jan

2015-01-01

and theories appears to be a key challenge. In this paper we commence with a DESRIST paper from 2012 that instantiated design principles in an artifact for a bank. That paper included plans and techniques for future use of its principles (propagation), including prescriptions for a five-phase adoption process...... or theories have stimulated many actual projections. We demonstrate these concepts in a case study of propagation: a chemical manufacturer and service provider that adopted the design principles arising from that 2012 DESRIST banking-based design science research. We conclude that generalizability is too well...

Episodic memory and episodic future thinking impairments in high-functioning autism spectrum disorder: an underlying difficulty with scene construction or self-projection?

Science.gov (United States)

Lind, Sophie E; Williams, David M; Bowler, Dermot M; Peel, Anna

2014-01-01

There appears to be a common network of brain regions that underlie the ability to recall past personal experiences (episodic memory) and the ability to imagine possible future personal experiences (episodic future thinking). At the cognitive level, these abilities are thought to rely on "scene construction" (the ability to bind together multimodal elements of a scene in mind--dependent on hippocampal functioning) and temporal "self-projection" (the ability to mentally project oneself through time--dependent on prefrontal cortex functioning). Although autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is characterized by diminished episodic memory, it is unclear whether episodic future thinking is correspondingly impaired. Moreover, the underlying basis of such impairments (difficulties with scene construction, self-projection, or both) is yet to be established. The current study therefore aimed to elucidate these issues. Twenty-seven intellectually high-functioning adults with ASD and 29 age- and IQ-matched neurotypical comparison adults were asked to describe (a) imagined atemporal, non-self-relevant fictitious scenes (assessing scene construction), (b) imagined plausible self-relevant future episodes (assessing episodic future thinking), and (c) recalled personally experienced past episodes (assessing episodic memory). Tests of narrative ability and theory of mind were also completed. Performances of participants with ASD were significantly and equally diminished in each condition and, crucially, this diminution was independent of general narrative ability. Given that participants with ASD were impaired in the fictitious scene condition, which does not involve self-projection, we suggest the underlying difficulty with episodic memory/future thinking is one of scene construction.

Biomarkers: project update from the GRAPPA 2012 annual meeting.

Science.gov (United States)

FitzGerald, Oliver; Mease, Philip J

2013-08-01

For members of the Group for Research and Assessment of Psoriasis and Psoriatic Arthritis (GRAPPA), an important goal has been the identification of soluble biomarkers in psoriatic arthritis that might predict the development of radiographic progression. Work over the past year has resulted in approval of a draft protocol, and an announcement is forthcoming of the outcome of an assessment process for centers that applied to manage the project. GRAPPA is now ready to commence formal negotiations with potential funding partners and intends to initiate this project in the near future.

ARPA-E Impacts: A Sampling of Project Outcomes, Volume II

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rohlfing, Eric [Dept. of Energy (DOE), Washington DC (United States). Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E)

2017-02-27

The Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E) is demonstrating that a collaborative model has the power to deliver real value. The Agency’s first compilation booklet of impact sheets, published in 2016, began to tell the story of how ARPA-E has already made an impact in just seven years—funding a diverse and sophisticated research portfolio on advanced energy technologies that enable the United States to tackle our most pressing energy challenges. One year later our research investments continue to pay off, with a number of current and alumni project teams successfully commercializing their technologies and advancing the state of the art in transformative areas of energy science and engineering. There is no single measure that can fully illustrate ARPA-E’s success to date, but several statistics viewed collectively begin to reveal the Agency’s impact. Since 2009, ARPA-E has provided more than $1.5 billion in funding for 36 focused programs and three open funding solicitations, totaling over 580 projects. Of those, 263 are now alumni projects. Many teams have successfully leveraged ARPA-E’s investment: 56 have formed new companies, 68 have partnered with other government agencies to continue their technology development, and 74 teams have together raised more than $1.8 billion in reported funding from the private sector to bring their technologies to market. However, even when viewed together, those measures do not capture ARPA-E’s full impact. To best understand the Agency’s success, the specific scientific and engineering challenges that ARPA-E project teams have overcome must be understood. This booklet provides concrete examples of those successes, ranging from innovations that will bear fruit in the future to ones that are beginning to penetrate the market as products today. Importantly, half of the projects highlighted in this volume stem from OPEN solicitations, which the agency has run in 2009, 2012, and 2015. ARPA-E’s OPEN programs

Canadian pediatric gastroenterology workforce: Current status, concerns and future projections

Science.gov (United States)

Morinville, Véronique; Drouin, Éric; Lévesque, Dominique; Espinosa, Victor M; Jacobson, Kevan

2007-01-01

BACKGROUND: There is concern that the Canadian pediatric gastroenterology workforce is inadequate to meet health care demands of the pediatric population. The Canadian Association of Gastroenterology Pediatric Committee performed a survey to determine characteristics and future plans of the Canadian pediatric gastroenterology workforce and trainees. METHODS: Estimates of total and pediatric populations were obtained from the 2001 Census of Population, Statistics Canada (with estimates to July 1, 2005). Data on Canadian pediatric gastroenterologists, including clinical full-time equivalents, sex, work interests, opinions on workforce adequacy, retirement plans, fellowship training programs and future employment plans of fellows, were gathered through e-mail surveys and telephone correspondence in 2005 and 2006. RESULTS: Canada had an estimated population of 32,270,507 in 2005 (6,967,853 people aged zero to 17 years). The pediatric gastroenterology workforce was estimated at 9.2 specialists per million children. Women accounted for 50% of the workforce. Physician to pediatric population ratios varied, with Alberta demonstrating the highest and Saskatchewan the lowest ratios (1:69,404 versus 1:240,950, respectively). Between 1998 and 2005, Canadian pediatric gastroenterology fellowship programs trained 65 fellows (65% international trainees). Twenty-two fellows (34%) entered the Canadian workforce. CONCLUSIONS: The survey highlights the variable and overall low numbers of pediatric gastroenterologists across Canada, an increasingly female workforce, a greater percentage of part-time physicians and a small cohort of Canadian trainees. In conjunction with high projected retirement rates, greater demands on the work-force and desires to partake in nonclinical activities, there is concern for an increasing shortage of pediatric gastroenterologists in Canada in future years. PMID:17948136

The importance of hot drought in providing more useful, and higher confidence, projections of future climatic, hydrologic, and ecosystem impacts.

Science.gov (United States)

Overpeck, J. T.; Udall, B. H.

2017-12-01

Often cited as a general guide to future climatic change, "the wet get wetter, and the dry get drier" is a misleading way to look towards the future for many regions of the globe, just as the simple use of multi-model ensemble projections of temperature and precipitation change averaged over many years can also be quite misleading for real-world planning and decision-making. Factors that support these assertions are multi-fold. First, we know with high confidence that warming will continue as long as greenhouse gas emissions continue. Second, continued warming will act to make droughts more frequent, longer and more severe in many regions. Even in the absence of precipitation declines, increases in evaporation and evapotranspiration, among other things, will drive regional drying. It is misleading to suggest to decision-makers that although the future may see an increase in drought risk, a projected increase in mean precipitation will counter-balance the increased drought risk. This counter-balancing will be absent during periods of precipitation-dominated drought. Moreover, projections of precipitation change are usually associated with much less confidence than projections of warming. For example, in places like the headwaters of the Colorado and Rio Grande Rivers, or East Africa, many models suggest we should be seeing an increase in precipitation, when in fact we are only seeing significant warming. Moreover, paleoclimatic evidence suggests that state-of-the-art Earth System Models may underestimate the risk of future multi-decadal droughts, even though these droughts have occurred in many regions during the last 2000 years. This reality suggests that even in regions that do see modest increases in mean precipitation, there will likely be periods in the future characterized by decades of below 20th century mean precipitation coupled with unprecedented warmth. Hot drought may be a much more widespread and serious threat than widely recognized.

ORGANIZATION OF FUTURE ENGINEERS' PROJECT-BASED LEARNING WHEN STUDYING THE PROJECT MANAGEMENT METHODOLOGY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Halyna V. Lutsenko

2015-02-01

Full Text Available The peculiarities of modern world experience of implementation of project-based learning in engineering education have been considered. The potential role and place of projects in learning activity have been analyzed. The methodology of organization of project-based activity of engineering students when studying the project management methodology and computer systems of project management has been proposed. The requirements to documentation and actual results of students' projects have been described in detail. The requirements to computer-aided systems of project management developed by using Microsoft Project in the scope of diary scheduling and resources planning have been formulated.

Clinical outcomes in pediatric hemodialysis patients in the USA: lessons from CMS' ESRD CPM Project.

Science.gov (United States)

Neu, Alicia M; Frankenfield, Diane L

2009-07-01

Although prospective randomized trials have provided important information and allowed the development of evidence-based guidelines in adult hemodialysis (HD) patients, with approximately 800 prevalent pediatric HD patients in the United States, such studies are difficult to perform in this population. Observational data obtained through the Center for Medicare & Medicaid Services' (CMS') End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) Clinical Performance Measures (CPM) Project have allowed description of the clinical care provided to pediatric HD patients as well as identification of risk factors for failure to reach adult targets for clinical parameters such as hemoglobin, single-pool Kt/V (spKt/V) and serum albumin. In addition, studies linking data from the ESRD CPM Project and the United States Renal Data System have allowed evaluation of associations between achievement of those targets and the outcomes of hospitalization and death. The results of those studies, while unable to prove cause and effect, suggest that the adult ESRD CPM targets may assist in identifying pediatric HD patients at risk for poor outcomes.

Main outcomes from the EURATOM-ROSATOM ERCOSAM SAMARA parallel projects for hydrogen safety of LWR - 15357

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paladino, D.; Kiselev, A.

2015-01-01

ERCOSAM and SAMARA are the acronyms for 2 parallel projects co-financed respectively by EURATOM and ROSATOM during the 2010-2014 period with the general aim to advance the knowledge on the phenomenology associated to the hydrogen and steam spreading and stratification in the LWR containment during a severe accident. The important peculiarity of the project was its experimental and analytical investigation of the impact of safety systems such as spray, coolers and PAR (Passive Autocatalytic Recombiners) on the distribution of gas species (hydrogen, steam and air). The main outcomes of the ERCOSAM-SAMARA projects are presented in this paper. The research needs, which could be considered in follow-up activities, are also identified. (authors)

Leadership and management influences the outcome of wildlife reintroduction programs: findings from the Sea Eagle Recovery Project.

Science.gov (United States)

Sutton, Alexandra E

2015-01-01

Wildlife reintroductions and translocations are statistically unlikely to succeed. Nevertheless, they remain a critical part of conservation because they are the only way to actively restore a species into a habitat from which it has been extirpated. Past efforts to improve these practices have attributed the low success rate to failures in the biological knowledge (e.g., ignorance of social behavior, poor release site selection), or to the inherent challenges of reinstating a species into an area where threats have already driven it to local extinction. Such research presumes that the only way to improve reintroduction outcomes is through improved biological knowledge. This emphasis on biological solutions may have caused researchers to overlook the potential influence of other factors on reintroduction outcomes. I employed a grounded theory approach to study the leadership and management of a successful reintroduction program (the Sea Eagle Recovery Project in Scotland, UK) and identify four critical managerial elements that I theorize may have contributed to the successful outcome of this 50-year reintroduction. These elements are: 1. Leadership & Management: Small, dedicated team of accessible experts who provide strong political and scientific advocacy ("champions") for the project. 2. Hierarchy & Autonomy: Hierarchical management structure that nevertheless permits high individual autonomy. 3. Goals & Evaluation: Formalized goal-setting and regular, critical evaluation of the project's progress toward those goals. 4. Adaptive Public Relations: Adaptive outreach campaigns that are open, transparent, inclusive (esp. linguistically), and culturally relevant.

European liquid metal thermal-hydraulics R and D: present and future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roelofs, F.; Batta, A.; Bandini, G.; Van Tichelen, K.; Gerschenfeld, A.; Cheng, X.

2014-01-01

A large role is attributed in the future within the European Sustainable Nuclear Energy Technology Platform (SNE-TP) and especially the underlying European Sustainable Nuclear Industry Initiative (ESNII) to the application of fast reactors for sustainable nuclear energy production. Specifically, fast reactors are considered attractive because of their possibility to use natural resources efficiently and to reduce the volume and lifetime of nuclear waste. Currently four demonstration projects have a promising outlook in Europe, i.e. the ASTRID project in France, the MYRRHA project in Belgium, the ALFRED project developed in Europe and to be built in Romania, and the ELECTRA project in Sweden. Sodium and lead(-alloys) are envisaged as coolants for these reactors. Obviously, in the development of these reactors, thermal-hydraulics is recognized as a key challenge with emphasis on safety issues. This paper will discuss the present development status of liquid metal cooled reactor thermal-hydraulics as an outcome of the European 7. framework programme THINS (Thermal-Hydraulics for Innovative Nuclear Systems) project. The main project results with respect to liquid metal cooled reactors will be summarized, i.e. turbulence heat transfer model development, fuel assembly analysis, pool thermal-hydraulics, system behaviour, multi-phase physics, and multiscale thermal-hydraulics simulation. In conclusion, the main challenges for future developments will be indicated. Emphasis will be put on the important experimental and numerical challenges. (authors)

Imagining the personal past: Episodic counterfactuals compared to episodic memories and episodic future projections

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Özbek, Müge; Bohn, Annette; Berntsen, Dorthe

2017-01-01

Episodic counterfactuals are imagined events that could have happened, but did not happen, in a person’s past. Such imagined past events are important aspects of mental life, affecting emotions, decisions, and behaviors. However, studies examining their phenomenological characteristics and content...... are few. Here we introduced a new method to systematically compare self-generated episodic counterfactuals to self-generated episodic memories and future projections with regard to their phenomenological characteristics (e.g., imagery, emotional valence, rehearsal) and content (e.g., reference to cultural...... distance. The findings show that imagined events are phenomenologically different from memories of experienced events, consistent with reality monitoring theory, and that imagined future events are different from both actual and imagined past events, consistent with some theories of motivation....

Project Management 2027; The Future of Project Management

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Drs. A.J.G. Silvius

2008-01-01

This paper describes a study into the expected development of the competences op the project manager in the year 2027. The study was performed amongst the members of IPMA-Netherlands during the summer of 2007. In the study the 46 competences of the International Competence Baseline 3 (ICB 3) were

From project management to project leadership

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Braun, F.; Avital, M.

2010-01-01

It is virtually a truism that good leadership practices can help project managers with attaining the desired project outcome. However, a better understanding of which leadership practices enable project managers to be more effective warrants further investigation. Subsequently, in this study, we

FutureCoast: "Listen to your futures"

Science.gov (United States)

Pfirman, S. L.; Eklund, K.; Thacher, S.; Orlove, B. S.; Diane Stovall-Soto, G.; Brunacini, J.; Hernandez, T.

2014-12-01

Two science-arts approaches are emerging as effective means to convey "futurethinking" to learners: systems gaming and experiential futures. FutureCoast exemplifies the latter: by engaging participants with voicemails supposedly leaking from the cloud of possible futures, the storymaking game frames the complexities of climate science in relatable contexts. Because participants make the voicemails themselves, FutureCoast opens up creative ways for people to think about possibly climate-changed futures and personal ways to talk about them. FutureCoast is a project of the PoLAR Partnership with a target audience of informal adult learners primarily reached via mobile devices and online platforms. Scientists increasingly use scenarios and storylines as ways to explore the implications of environmental change and societal choices. Stories help people make connections across experiences and disciplines and link large-scale events to personal consequences. By making the future seem real today, FutureCoast's framework helps people visualize and plan for future climate changes. The voicemails contributed to FutureCoast are spread through the game's intended timeframe (2020 through 2065). Based on initial content analysis of voicemail text, common themes include ecosystems and landscapes, weather, technology, societal issues, governance and policy. Other issues somewhat less frequently discussed include security, food, industry and business, health, energy, infrastructure, water, economy, and migration. Further voicemail analysis is examining: temporal dimensions (salient time frames, short vs. long term issues, intergenerational, etc.), content (adaptation vs. mitigation, challenges vs. opportunities, etc.), and emotion (hopeful, resigned, etc. and overall emotional context). FutureCoast also engaged audiences through facilitated in-person experiences, geocaching events, and social media (Tumblr, Twitter, Facebook, YouTube). Analysis of the project suggests story

Evaluation of future policy instruments - Sub-Project 2; Utvaerdering av framtida styrmedel - Delprojekt 2 inom projektet Perspektiv paa framtida avfallsbehandling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bisaillon, Mattias; Dahlen, Lisa; Detterfelt, Lia; Edner, Stig; Toren, Johan

2013-09-01

There are several recently introduced and future possible policy instruments that are of great interest to study in order to understand the future for the Swedish waste treatment market. In the energy sector, the use of system analysis models has proven to be effective in order to understand the effects and consequences of policy instruments. In the waste sector, however, such analyses have only been conducted sporadically. This in spite of the introduction of highly influential policy instruments such as producer responsibility, landfill tax and landfill ban, which together have contributed to landfilling of Swedish household waste practically has ceased. The goal of this project was, by using system analysis models, to study and evaluate the newly introduced and future possible policy instruments which affect Swedish waste treatment. The assessment was made in terms of how policy instruments affect: - the distribution of treatment technologies, - waste amounts, - greenhouse gas emissions and - the economics of waste treatment. The project was performed during 2011 and 2012 as a part of the research project 'Perspectives on sustainable waste treatment (PFA)'. During the project, discussions have taken place within the working group and the reference group on which instruments are most interesting and relevant to study. Furthermore, opinions have been gathered from the association Swedish Waste Managements policy instrument group and from various players in the industry at conferences, presentations and workshops.

Adult Outcomes as a Function of an Early Childhood Educational Program: An Abecedarian Project Follow-Up

Science.gov (United States)

Campbell, Frances A.; Pungello, Elizabeth P.; Burchinal, Margaret; Kainz, Kirsten; Pan, Yi; Wasik, Barbara H.; Barbarin, Oscar A.; Sparling, Joseph J.; Ramey, Craig T.

2012-01-01

Adult (age 30) educational, economic, and social-emotional adjustment outcomes were investigated for participants in the Abecedarian Project, a randomized controlled trial of early childhood education for children from low-income families. Of the original 111 infants enrolled (98% African American), 101 took part in the age 30 follow-up. Primary…

Future Projections and Consequences of the Changing North American Carbon Cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Huntzinger, D. N.; Cooley, S. R.; Moore, D. J.

2017-12-01

The rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), primarily due to human-caused fossil fuel emissions and land-use change, has been dampened by carbon uptake by the oceans and terrestrial biosphere. Nevertheless, today's atmospheric CO2 levels are higher than at any time in the past 800,000 years. Over the past decade, there has been considerable effort to understand how carbon cycle changes interact with, and influence, atmospheric CO2 concentrations and thus climate. Here, we summarize the key findings related to projected changes to the North American carbon cycle and the consequences of these changes as reported in Chapters 17 and 19 of the 2nd State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR-2). In terrestrial ecosystems, increased atmospheric CO2 causes enhanced photosynthesis, plant growth, and water-use efficiency. Together, these may lead to changes in vegetation composition, carbon storage, hydrology and biogeochemical cycling. In the ocean, increased uptake of atmospheric CO2 causes ocean acidification, which leads to changes in reproduction, survival, and growth of many marine species. These direct physiological responses to acidification are likely to have indirect ecosystem-scale consequences that we are just beginning to understand. In all environments, the effects of rising CO2 also interact with other global changes. For example, nutrient availability can set limits on growth and a warming climate alters carbon uptake depending on a number of other factors. As a result, there is low confidence in the future evolution of the North American carbon cycle. For example, models project that terrestrial ecosystems could continue to be a net sink (of up to 1.19 PgC yr-1) or switch to a net source of carbon to the atmosphere (of up to 0.60 PgC yr-1) by the end of the century under business-as-usual emission scenarios. And, while North American coastal areas have historically been a sink of carbon (e.g., 2.6 to 3.5 PgC since 1995) and are projected to continue to take up

The Cernavoda project - past and future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Glodeanu, F.; Campureanu, T.; Chirica, T.; Popescu, D.

1995-01-01

The history of the Cernavoda nuclear power station in Romania is traced. It was conceived in 1977 as five unit CANDU-6 station and agreements were concluded on engineering, procurement and financial assistance with Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd (AECL) and Ansaldo of Italy. Delays in construction were created from the first, however, by efforts to manufacture as many components as possible in Romania, unfamiliarity with nuclear project management and the disadvantages of a highly centralised economy. Political changes since December 1989 have led to a new approach to project implementation. The Romanian Electricity Authority (RENEL), signed a new contract with AECL and Ansaldo in August 1991 to perform the project management for the completion of Cernavoda 1. The project has progressed very well and by the beginning of 1995 more than 90% of the plant systems were ready for commissioning and a full operating shift was in place. As a second phase of the nuclear power programme RENEL plans to complete Cernavoda 2, the construction of which was suspended at 30% completion. The three other units will be preserved in their present preliminary stage of construction up to 2000 while finance is sought for their completion. Nuclear power is seen as an environmentally clean means of meeting Romania's growing energy demand as the economy develops. (UK)

General chemistry: expanding the learning outcomes and promoting interdisciplinary connections through the use of a semester-long project.

Science.gov (United States)

Wenzel, Thomas J

2006-01-01

The laboratory component of a first-semester general chemistry course for science majors is described. The laboratory involves a semester-long project undertaken in a small-group format. Students are asked to examine whether plants grown in soil contaminated with lead take up more lead than those grown in uncontaminated soil. They are also asked to examine whether the acidity of the rainwater affects the amount of lead taken up by the plants. Groups are then given considerable independence in the design and implementation of the experiment. Once the seeds are planted, which takes about 4 wk into the term, several shorter experiments are integrated in before it is time to harvest and analyze the plants. The use of a project and small working groups allows for the development of a broader range of learning outcomes than occurs in a "traditional" general chemistry laboratory. The nature of these outcomes and some of the student responses to the laboratory experience are described. This particular project also works well at demonstrating the connections among chemistry, biology, geology, and environmental studies.

The implications of regional and national demographic projections for future GMS costs in Ireland through to 2026.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Conway, Aisling

2014-10-21

As the health services in Ireland have become more resource-constrained, pressure has increased to reduce public spending on community drug schemes such as General Medical Services (GMS) drug prescribing and to understand current and future trends in prescribing. The GMS scheme covers approximately 37% of the Irish population in 2011 and entitles them, inter alia, to free prescription drugs and appliances. This paper projects the effects of future changes in population, coverage, claims rates and average claims cost on GMS costs in Ireland.

A Robust Statistical Model to Predict the Future Value of the Milk Production of Dairy Cows Using Herd Recording Data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Græsbøll, Kaare; Kirkeby, Carsten Thure; Nielsen, Søren Saxmose

2017-01-01

The future value of an individual dairy cow depends greatly on its projected milk yield. In developed countries with developed dairy industry infrastructures, facilities exist to record individual cow production and reproduction outcomes consistently and accurately. Accurate prediction of the fut...

Le futur du project LHC

CERN Multimedia

Heyoka

2007-01-01

Since 2004, and specitally during the long study in 2005, we used the results of the LHC Project to evaluate differents parameters of the machiene (LHC). The final choices for the design of the machine are based partly on these results. (1,5 page)

ACSEPT a European project for a new step in the future demonstration of advanced fuel processing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bourg, S.; Hill, C.; Caravaca, C.; Espartero, A.; Rhodes, C.; Taylor, R.; Harrison, M.; EKBERG, C.; GEIST, A.; Modolo, G.; Cassayre, L.; Malmbeck, R.; De Angelis, G.; Bouvet, S.; Klaassen, F.

2010-01-01

For more than fifteen years, a European scientific community has joined its effort to develop and optimise processes for the partitioning of actinides from fission products. In an international context of 'nuclear renaissance', the upcoming of a new generation of nuclear reactor (Gen IV) will require the development of associated advanced closed fuel cycles which answer the needs of a sustainable nuclear energy: the minimization of the production of long lived radioactive waste but also the optimization of the use of natural resources with an increased resistance to proliferation. Actually, Partitioning and Transmutation (P and T), associated to a multi-recycling of all transuranics (TRUs), should play a key role in the development of this sustainable nuclear energy. By joining together 34 Partners coming from European universities, nuclear research bodies and major industrial players in a multidisciplinary consortium, the FP7 EURATOM-Fission Collaborative Project ACSEPT (Actinide recycling by Separation and Transmutation), started in 2008 for four year duration, provides the sound basis and fundamental improvements for future demonstrations of fuel treatment in strong connection with fuel fabrication techniques. Consistently with potentially viable recycling strategies, ACSEPT therefore provides a structured R and D framework to develop chemical separation processes compatible with fuel fabrication techniques, with a view to their future demonstration at the pilot level. ACSEPT is organized into three technical domains: (i) Considering technically mature aqueous separation processes, ACSEPT works to optimize and select the most promising ones dedicated either to actinide partitioning or to group actinide separation. (ii) Concerning high temperature pyrochemical separation processes, ACSEPT focuses on the enhancement of the two reference cores of process selected within previous projects. R and D efforts are now devoted to key scientific and technical points

Projected future wave climate in the NW Mediterranean Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Casas-Prat, M.; Sierra, J. P.

2013-07-01

Projected future regional wave climate scenarios at a high temporal-spatial scale were obtained for the NW Mediterranean Sea, using five combinations of regional-global circulation models. Changes in wave variables were analyzed and related to the variations of the forcing wind projections, while also evaluating the evolution of the presence of the different types of sea states. To assess the significance of the changes produced, a bootstrap-based method was proposed, which accounts for the autocorrelation of data and correctly reproduces the extremes. For the mean climate, relative changes of Hs up to ±10% were obtained, whereas they were around ±20% for the extreme climate. In mean terms, variations of Hs are similar to those associated with wind speed but are enhanced/attenuated, respectively, when fetch conditions are favorable/unfavorable. In general, most notable alterations are not in the Hs magnitude but rather in its direction. In this regard, during the winter season, it is interesting to note that the significant deviations between the results derived from the two global circulation models are larger than those between regional models. ECHAM5 simulated an enhanced west wind flow that is translated into more frequent W-NW waves, whereas the HadCM3Q3 global model gives rise to the east component, which contributes to a higher intensity and number of storms coming from such a direction and directly affects the wind-sea/swell distribution of coastal stretches that face east, like the Catalan coast. Different patterns of change were obtained during the summer when a common rise of NE-E waves was found.

Anticipating the use of future things: towards a framework for prospective use analysis in innovation design projects.

Science.gov (United States)

Nelson, Julien; Buisine, Stéphanie; Aoussat, Améziane

2013-11-01

Anticipation of future product use is a persistent issue in User-Centered Design. In this paper, we argue that one obstacle to early integration of use analysis in innovation design is overreliance on retrospective use analysis, i.e. that which is based on clear references to existing products or activities. In contrast, innovation design projects are full of uncertainty, leading to a need for prospective analysis. After having described some limitations of prospective use analysis, we contend that creativity tools may be used to assist the anticipation of future product use, by allowing designers to approach the variability of situations of future use in a structured manner rather than by "muddling through". We illustrate the expected benefits of this approach with two case studies, and describe some prospects for future research and practice in ergonomics. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Potential increase in floods in California's Sierra Nevada under future climate projections

Science.gov (United States)

Das, T.; Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Hidalgo, H.G.

2011-01-01

California's mountainous topography, exposure to occasional heavily moisture-laden storm systems, and varied communities and infrastructures in low lying areas make it highly vulnerable to floods. An important question facing the state-in terms of protecting the public and formulating water management responses to climate change-is "how might future climate changes affect flood characteristics in California?" To help address this, we simulate floods on the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, the state's primary catchment, based on downscaled daily precipitation and temperature projections from three General Circulation Models (GCMs). These climate projections are fed into the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, and the VIC-simulated streamflows and hydrologic conditions, from historical and from projected climate change runs, allow us to evaluate possible changes in annual maximum 3-day flood magnitudes and frequencies of floods. By the end of the 21st Century, all projections yield larger-than-historical floods, for both the Northern Sierra Nevada (NSN) and for the Southern Sierra Nevada (SSN). The increases in flood magnitude are statistically significant (at p models, while under the third scenario, GFDL CM2. 1, frequencies remain constant or decline slightly, owing to an overall drying trend. These increases appear to derive jointly from increases in heavy precipitation amount, storm frequencies, and days with more precipitation falling as rain and less as snow. Increases in antecedent winter soil moisture also play a role in some areas. Thus, a complex, as-yet unpredictable interplay of several different climatic influences threatens to cause increased flood hazards in California's complex western Sierra landscapes. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Future energy research in the EU under EIT conditions-pilot projects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Puehringer-Oppermann, Franziska; Bele, Petra; Bussar, Rainer; Stimming, Ulrich [TUM, Dept. of Physics, E19, James-Franck Str. 1, D-85748 Garching (Germany)

2009-07-01

The European Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT) has been established in April 2008. It is an independent organisation with the administrative head in Budapest, a governing board, an executive committee and a chairman. The EIT budget until 2012 is 308 MEUR. EIT will operate through the formation of Knowledge and Innovation Communities (KICs). The first three KICs are foreseen in the areas sustainable energy, ICT and climate mitigation. The European Commission has sponsored four pilot projects (conducted 2008-2009) to help develop a suitable governance structure for cooperations on European scale such as the future KICs. They are Bridge, ComplexEIT, SUCCESS and Gast, dealing with different topics like nanomedicine (Bridge), integration of hardware and software (ComplexEIT), sustainable energy (SUCCESS) and green and safe road transportation (Gast). The strategic objective of these pilot projects is to design, implement and test new models of cooperation in the knowledge triangle. We are involved in SUCCESS and after benchmarking of 66 collaborations in the field sustainable energy, the state of the art of selected representative topics was asessed and shortcomings in governance evaluated by SWOT analysis. In parallel further existing collaborations were used to extract and establish a management structure for such collaborations on the European scale.

Science and mathematics teachers of the future

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Michelsen, Claus; Nielsen, Jan Alexis; Petersen, Morten Rask

2008-01-01

This paper presents the project Science and Mathematics Teachers of the Future. The aim of the project is to develop and implement a graduate level equivalent degree program in mathematics and science instruction for in-service teachers of lower secondary education. This aim is achieved...... in the programme through involving the teachers in design, implementation and evaluation of innovative instructional sequences, which deals with a wide range of aspects of mathematics and science, e.g. modern science and the importance of science in society. In the program contemporary science and mathematics...... education research serves as a basis for the design and development of warranted practices with which the teachers may experiment in their classroom. We will focus on the outcomes of offering a program which is intimately tied to (i) contemporary science and mathematics education research, (ii) modern...

The future of utility customer-funded energy efficiency programs in the USA. Projected spending and savings to 2025

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barbose, G.L.; Goldman, C.A.; Hoffman, I.M.; Billingsley, M. [Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, One Cyclotron Road, MS 90R4000, Berkeley, CA 94720-8136 (United States)

2013-08-15

We develop projections of future spending on, and savings from, energy efficiency programs funded by electric and gas utility customers in the USA, under three scenarios through 2025. Our analysis, which updates a previous LBNL study, relies on detailed bottom-up modeling of current state energy efficiency policies, regulatory decisions, and demand-side management and utility resource plans. The three scenarios are intended to represent a range of potential outcomes under the current policy environment (i.e., without considering possible major new policy developments). Key findings from the analysis are as follows: (1) By 2025, spending on electric and gas efficiency programs (excluding load management programs) is projected to double from 2010 levels to USD 9.5 billion in the medium case, compared to USD 15.6 billion in the high case and USD 6.5 billion in the low case; (2) Compliance with statewide legislative or regulatory savings or spending targets is the primary driver for the increase in electric program spending through 2025, though a significant share of the increase is also driven by utility DSM planning activity and integrated resource planning; (3) Our analysis suggests that electric efficiency program spending may approach a more even geographic distribution over time in terms of absolute dollars spent, with the Northeastern and Western states declining from over 70 % of total USA spending in 2010 to slightly more than 50 % in 2025, and the South and Midwest splitting the remainder roughly evenly; (4) Under our medium case scenario, annual incremental savings from customer-funded electric energy efficiency programs increase from 18.4 TWh in 2010 in the USA (which is about 0.5 % of electric utility retail sales) to 28.8 TWh in 2025 (0.8 % of retail sales); (5) These savings would offset the majority of load growth in the Energy Information Administration's most recent reference case forecast, given specific assumptions about the extent to which future

Documenter le futur: fantasmes, projections et decalages spatiotemporels

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alice Forge

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Le concept de documentation future recèle un paradoxe : le mot documenter renvoie à des traces relevées dans un passé factuel, tandis que le futur ne peut, par définition, être qu’incertain, que l’objet de fantasmes, de projections. L’analyse suivante questionne ce paradoxe à travers l’analyse d’un motif cinématographique : un homme et une femme face à une tranche de séquoia, représentation symbolique du temps. Ce motif apparait dans trois oeuvres majeures du cinéma : Vertigo, d’Alfred Hitchcock, La Jetée de Chris Marker, et l’Armée des douze singes, de Terry Gilliam. La répétition de ce motif est mise en rapport avec l’ouvrage de Pierre Bayard, Le plagiat par anticipation, afin de l’envisager sous l’angle du paradoxe temporel, plutôt que sous le régime de la chronologie historique. Cette analyse prend pour point de départ une oeuvre intitulée Vozes Fantasmas, qui sur le principe de la documentation future propose d’écouter des murmures de spectateurs visitant une exposition qui n’a pas eu lieu. RESUMO O conceito de documentação do futuro evoca um paradoxo: o verbo documentar refere-se a traços ou rastros preservados de um passado factual, enquanto o futuro por definição é algo incerto, objeto de especulações, fantasias e projeções. Nossa reflexão questiona este paradoxo a partir da análise de uma cena cinematográfica: um homem e uma mulher em frente de um corte de sequoia, que é a representação simbólica do tempo. Esta cena aprece em três grandes obras do cinema: Vertigo (Um corpo que cai de Alfred Hitchcock, La Jetée de Chris Marker, e Os Doze Macacos de Terry Gilliam. A repetição desta cena é abordada em relação à obra de Pierre Bayard, Plágio por antecipação, a fim de considerá-la em termos de paradoxo temporal, e não como uma cronologia histórica. Esta análise tem como ponto de partida um trabalho artístico intitulado Vozes Fantasmas, que seguindo o princípio de

Pore Water Arsenic Dynamics in Rice Paddies Under Projected Future Climates

Science.gov (United States)

Plaganas, M.; Wang, T.; Muehe, E. M.; Fendorf, S. E.

2016-12-01

Rice is one of the staple crops in the world, with 50% of the global population eating rice daily. Many rice-producing regions of the world are irrigated with groundwater contaminated with arsenic (As), and in particular South and Southeast Asia, where geogenic As is leached into the groundwater. Use of groundwater pervasively high in As leads to subsequent accumulation in paddy soils. Arsenic, a toxic metalloid, also decreases rice productivity and further jeopardizes food security. Hence, rice agriculture is concerned with its productivity in a climate change impacted future and the particular impacts of arsenic on yields. However, past studies do not address the prevalence of As in paddy soils or its fate in the rhizosphere and ultimate impact on the plant. The objective of our study was to determine changes in pore water As dynamics in the rhizosphere of rice plants grown on As-contaminated paddy soil under climate conditions projected for the end of the century. In order to address this objective, we designed greenhouse chambers with today's climate and projected climate conditions for the year 2100, specifically 5°C increase in temperature and doubled concentration of atmospheric CO2. We hypothesize that the effects of climate change with these conditions will increase the mobility of As in the rhizosphere, and thus, decrease rice growth in As-bearing paddies more than, so far, expected. We examined pore water geochemistry including pH and As concentrations, and correlate that to the height of the plants. Furthermore, the dynamics of other elements in the pore water such as carbon, iron, sulfur, manganese, and silica are further evaluated for their effects on rice growth. Arsenic will have an impact on rice production and conditions induced by future climatic conditions need to be considered for food security. Considering that climate change will decrease the global agricultural output, we should urgently consider adapting our agricultural practices to aid

Irradiation project of SiC/SiC fuel pin 'INSPIRE': Status and future plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kohyama, Akira; Kishimoto, Hirotatsu

2015-01-01

After the March 11 Disaster in East-Japan, Research and Development towards Ensuring Nuclear Safety Enhancement for LWR becomes a top priority R and D in nuclear energy policy of Japan. The role of high temperature non-metallic materials, such as SiC/SiC, is becoming important for the advanced nuclear reactor systems. SiC fibre reinforced SiC composite has been recognised to be the most attractive option for the future, now, METI fund based project, INSPIRE, has been launched as 5-year termed project at OASIS in Muroran Institute of Technology aiming at early realisation of this system. INSPIRE is the irradiation project of SiC/SiC fuel pins aiming to accumulate material, thermal, irradiation effect data of NITE-SiC/SiC in BWR environment. Nuclear fuel inserted SiC/SiC fuel pins are planned to be installed in the Halden reactor. The project includes preparing the NITE-SiC/SiC tubes, joining of end caps, preparation of rigs to control the irradiation environment to BWR condition and the instruments to measure the condition of rigs and pins in operation. Also, basic neutron irradiation data will be accumulated by SiC/SiC coupon samples currently under irradiation in BR2. The output from this project may present the potentiality of NITE-SiC/SiC fuel cladding with the first stage fuel-cladding interaction. (authors)

Atmospheric nucleation: highlights of the EUCAARI project and future directions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V.-M. Kerminen

2010-11-01

Full Text Available Within the project EUCAARI (European Integrated project on Aerosol Cloud Climate and Air Quality interactions, atmospheric nucleation was studied by (i developing and testing new air ion and cluster spectrometers, (ii conducting homogeneous nucleation experiments for sulphate and organic systems in the laboratory, (iii investigating atmospheric nucleation mechanism under field conditions, and (iv applying new theoretical and modelling tools for data interpretation and development of parameterisations. The current paper provides a synthesis of the obtained results and identifies the remaining major knowledge gaps related to atmospheric nucleation. The most important technical achievement of the project was the development of new instruments for measuring sub-3 nm particle populations, along with the extensive application of these instruments in both the laboratory and the field. All the results obtained during EUCAARI indicate that sulphuric acid plays a central role in atmospheric nucleation. However, also vapours other than sulphuric acid are needed to explain the nucleation and the subsequent growth processes, at least in continental boundary layers. Candidate vapours in this respect are some organic compounds, ammonia, and especially amines. Both our field and laboratory data demonstrate that the nucleation rate scales to the first or second power of the nucleating vapour concentration(s. This agrees with the few earlier field observations, but is in stark contrast with classical thermodynamic nucleation theories. The average formation rates of 2-nm particles were found to vary by almost two orders of magnitude between the different EUCAARI sites, whereas the formation rates of charged 2-nm particles varied very little between the sites. Overall, our observations are indicative of frequent, yet moderate, ion-induced nucleation usually outweighed by much stronger neutral nucleation events in the continental lower troposphere. The most concrete

CHASE-PL—Future Hydrology Data Set: Projections of Water Balance and Streamflow for the Vistula and Odra Basins, Poland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mikołaj Piniewski

2017-04-01

Full Text Available There is considerable concern that the water resources of Central and Eastern Europe region can be adversely affected by climate change. Projections of future water balance and streamflow conditions can be obtained by forcing hydrological models with the output from climate models. In this study, we employed the SWAT hydrological model driven with an ensemble of nine bias-corrected EURO-CORDEX climate simulations to generate future hydrological projections for the Vistula and Odra basins in two future horizons (2024–2050 and 2074–2100 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs. The data set consists of three parts: (1 model inputs; (2 raw model outputs; (3 aggregated model outputs. The first one allows the users to reproduce the outputs or to create the new ones. The second one contains the simulated time series of 10 variables simulated by SWAT: precipitation, snow melt, potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, soil water content, percolation, surface runoff, baseflow, water yield and streamflow. The third one consists of the multi-model ensemble statistics of the relative changes in mean seasonal and annual variables developed in a GIS format. The data set should be of interest of climate impact scientists, water managers and water-sector policy makers. In any case, it should be noted that projections included in this data set are associated with high uncertainties explained in this data descriptor paper.

An alternative projection model of future nuclear capacity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takei, Mitsuo

1985-01-01

There is generally a high degree of uncertainty involved in the projection of growth of any energy source, especially when the projection extends 50 years ahead. The 1982 OECD/NEA Report, 'Nuclear Energy and its Fuel Cycle Prospect to 2025' notes the downturn in past projections of nuclear capacity over the past decade. It is obvious that rapidly changing conditions have affected overall worldwide energy and economic growth and the field of nuclear power has been subject to changes specific to itself. These have caused past projections to become obsolete and therefore it would seem necessary to implement a new projection method to improve the accuracy of present forecasting. (author)

The CIDEM project for integrating availability, operating experience and maintenance in the design of future nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Degrave, C.; Martin-Onraet, M.

1998-01-01

To minimize the kWh cost of future nuclear plants EDF has decided to implement the CIDEM project (French acronym for Design Integrating Availability, Operating Experience and Maintenance), an analytic and systematic process for studying new projects. The first CIDEM application is centered on the future French nuclear unit construction program, known as the REP 2000 Program but the approach could be applied to other Reactor type. The CIDEM studies at the beginning, were oriented to the issues strongly impacting the availability. They have concerned: planned outages, forced outages and preventive maintenance. The studies were carried out by a team grouping engineers from the 3 EDF's Divisions (Engineering-Generation-Research), and working together in a Concurrent Engineering-Mode. This team works in close collaboration with the vendors and the German Utilities involved in the REP 2000 EPR program. The implementation of the CIDEM process constitutes for EDF a new approach to the study of the new Nuclear Power Plant projects. The studies conducted in the availability field have already highlighted a number of critical points and have made it possible to establish a series of specifications for the REP 2000/EPR project. The integration in the design process of Preventive Maintenance and Logistic Support studies will allow a better control of the maintenance cost. The competitiveness of nuclear energy greatly depends on the success of such an approach. (author)

Revealing, Reducing, and Representing Uncertainties in New Hydrologic Projections for Climate-changed Futures

Science.gov (United States)

Arnold, Jeffrey; Clark, Martyn; Gutmann, Ethan; Wood, Andy; Nijssen, Bart; Rasmussen, Roy

2016-04-01

The United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has had primary responsibility for multi-purpose water resource operations on most of the major river systems in the U.S. for more than 200 years. In that time, the USACE projects and programs making up those operations have proved mostly robust against the range of natural climate variability encountered over their operating life spans. However, in some watersheds and for some variables, climate change now is known to be shifting the hydroclimatic baseline around which that natural variability occurs and changing the range of that variability as well. This makes historical stationarity an inappropriate basis for assessing continued project operations under climate-changed futures. That means new hydroclimatic projections are required at multiple scales to inform decisions about specific threats and impacts, and for possible adaptation responses to limit water-resource vulnerabilities and enhance operational resilience. However, projections of possible future hydroclimatologies have myriad complex uncertainties that require explicit guidance for interpreting and using them to inform those decisions about climate vulnerabilities and resilience. Moreover, many of these uncertainties overlap and interact. Recent work, for example, has shown the importance of assessing the uncertainties from multiple sources including: global model structure [Meehl et al., 2005; Knutti and Sedlacek, 2013]; internal climate variability [Deser et al., 2012; Kay et al., 2014]; climate downscaling methods [Gutmann et al., 2012; Mearns et al., 2013]; and hydrologic models [Addor et al., 2014; Vano et al., 2014; Mendoza et al., 2015]. Revealing, reducing, and representing these uncertainties is essential for defining the plausible quantitative climate change narratives required to inform water-resource decision-making. And to be useful, such quantitative narratives, or storylines, of climate change threats and hydrologic impacts must sample

Campus Community Involvement in an Experimental Food Research Project Increases Students' Motivation and Improves Perceived Learning Outcomes

Science.gov (United States)

Goto, K.; Bianco-Simeral, S.

2009-01-01

Although the effects of pedagogical strategies using collaborative learning on students' perceived learning outcomes have been studied, little has been examined about possible benefits and challenges in collaborating with the campus community in a food science research project conducted by nutrition majors. We examined the effects of involving…

Conducting a Multisite Education Research Project: Strategies to Overcome the Barriers to Achieve the Benefits.

Science.gov (United States)

Beischel, Kelly P; Hart, Julie; Turkelson, Sandra L

2016-01-01

Multisite education research projects have many benefits as well as perceived barriers. In this article, we share our experiences with a multisite education research project and the barriers we overcame to reap the benefits. The outcome of our research resulted in increased rigor, role-modeling professional collaboration, and promotion of future multisite education studies. The strategies presented in this article will help alleviate perceived barriers and ameliorate the process of conducting multisite education research studies.

Future Freshwater Stress on Small Islands: Population, Aridity and Global Warming Targets

Science.gov (United States)

Karnauskas, K. B.; Schleussner, C. F.; Donnelly, J. P.; Anchukaitis, K. J.

2017-12-01

Small island developing states (SIDS) face multiple threats from anthropogenic climate change, including potential changes in freshwater resource availability. Future freshwater stress, including geographic and seasonal variability, has important implications for climate change adaptation scenarios for vulnerable human populations living on islands across the world ocean. Due to a mismatch in spatial scale between SIDS landforms and the horizontal resolution of global climate models (GCMs), SIDS are mostly unaccounted for in GCMs that are used to make future projections of global climate change and its regional impacts. Specific approaches are required to address this gap between broad-scale model projections and regional, policy-relevant outcomes. Here we apply a recently developed methodology to project future changes in aridity in combination with population projections associated with different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to evaluate overall changes in freshwater stress in SIDS at warming levels of 1.5°C and 2°C above pre-industrial levels. By accounting for evaporative demand a posteriori, we reveal a robust yet spatially variable tendency towards increasing aridity for 16 million people living on islands by mid-century. Although about half of the islands are projected to experience increased rainfall—predominantly in the deep tropics—projected changes in evaporation are more uniform, shifting the global distribution of changes in island freshwater balance towards greater aridity. In many cases, the magnitude of projected drying is comparable to the amplitude of the estimated observed interannual variability, with important consequences for extreme events. While we find that future population growth will dominate changes in projected freshwater stress especially towards the end of the century, projected changes in aridity are found to compound freshwater stress for the vast majority of SIDS. Particularly across the Caribbean region, a

The activities of the committee 'Kernreaktorregelung' (nuclear reactor control) in the past few years and future projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knecht, O.

1976-01-01

Results achieved so far and future projects are portrayed in detail: 1) VDI/VDE 3527-Graphical symbols for nuclear reactor control; 2) VDI/VDE 3528-Special terms and definitons for nuclear reactor control; 3) 8 data sheets on reactor control; 4) VDI/VDE 3530-Characterisation of reactor control rod drives. (orig./HP) [de

Moving towards Optimising Demand-Led Learning: The 2005-2007 ECUANET Leonardo Da Vinci Project

Science.gov (United States)

Dealtry, Richard; Howard, Keith

2008-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to present the key project learning points and outcomes as a guideline for the future quality management of demand-led learning and development. Design/methodology/approach: The research methodology was based upon a corporate university blueprint architecture and browser toolkit developed by a member of the…

Project-Based Learning in Programmable Logic Controller

Science.gov (United States)

Seke, F. R.; Sumilat, J. M.; Kembuan, D. R. E.; Kewas, J. C.; Muchtar, H.; Ibrahim, N.

2018-02-01

Project-based learning is a learning method that uses project activities as the core of learning and requires student creativity in completing the project. The aims of this study is to investigate the influence of project-based learning methods on students with a high level of creativity in learning the Programmable Logic Controller (PLC). This study used experimental methods with experimental class and control class consisting of 24 students, with 12 students of high creativity and 12 students of low creativity. The application of project-based learning methods into the PLC courses combined with the level of student creativity enables the students to be directly involved in the work of the PLC project which gives them experience in utilizing PLCs for the benefit of the industry. Therefore, it’s concluded that project-based learning method is one of the superior learning methods to apply on highly creative students to PLC courses. This method can be used as an effort to improve student learning outcomes and student creativity as well as to educate prospective teachers to become reliable educators in theory and practice which will be tasked to create qualified human resources candidates in order to meet future industry needs.

Project Baiterek: A Patient Access Program to Improve Clinical Outcomes and Quality of Life in Children with Type 1 Diabetes in Kazakhstan.

Science.gov (United States)

Muratalina, Aigul; Smith-Palmer, Jayne; Nurbekova, Akmaral; Abduakhassova, Gulmira; Zhubandykova, Leila; Roze, Stéphane; Karamalis, Manolis; Shamshatova, Gulzhakhan; Demessinov, Adi; D'Agostino, Nicola Dunne; Lynch, Peter; Yedigarova, Larisa; Klots, Motty; Valentine, William; Welsh, John; Kaufman, Francine

2015-09-01

Diabetes is a key driver in the rise of noncommunicable diseases globally. It causes expensive and burdensome short- and long-term complications, with both an economic and social impact. In many countries, however, access to care and disease management in type 1 diabetes is suboptimal, increasing the risk for complications. In 2011, Project Baiterek was initiated as a collaborative effort between the Kazakhstan Ministry of Health, industry (Medtronic Plc), local physicians, and the Diabetes Association of the Republic of Kazakhstan to enhance patient access to continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion (CSII) therapy. It was the first countrywide project to provide equity and universal access to insulin pump therapy among children with type 1 diabetes, increasing pump use from zero to two-thirds of this population in less than 3 years. The project also involved instigating longitudinal data collection, and long-term clinical outcomes continue to be monitored. Here, we provide an overview of the clinical, quality-of-life, and economic outcomes to date associated with providing CSII therapy to children with type 1 diabetes in Kazakhstan. Initial clinical data show that CSII therapy improved clinical outcomes and quality of life for patients entered into the program and that CSII therapy was cost-effective relative to multiple daily injection therapy. The positive outcomes of Project Baiterek provide a template for similar patient access programs in other settings, and its framework could be adapted to initiatives to change health care infrastructures and standards of care for other noncommunicable diseases. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Concept and development status of fast breeder reactor fuels in the FaCT project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maeda, S.; Suzuki, M.; Kaito, T.; Tanaka, K.; Abe, T.

2013-01-01

The fuel development and the conceptual design study have been progressed in the first phase of the FaCT project in Japan. Significant outcomes of key technologies related to fuel design, fuel properties, core materials, fuel fabrication have been provided. The prospects of these technologies have been identified. After the Fukushima accident, the research and development for reducing the amount and toxic level of radioactive wastes will be promoted more than before. These outcomes will be reflected on the future development

The future is no longer what it used to be. Managing health telematics projects.

Science.gov (United States)

Demeester, M; Beuscart, R

1997-09-01

Future used to mean global progress and convergence of science and technology and society. Today, we observe the decoupling of the two poles of knowledge formation and application (i.e. science and technology, and culture and society, respectively) and also fierce confrontation between them. The key issue to reconcile the two poles is to re-invent the link between them. The new future lies in the development of mental and technical capacities for change and the creation of new forms of solidarity. We propose, as a general attitude, to reactivate and develop the four principles of efficacy-effectiveness-efficiency, hospitality, responsibility and pertinence. Translated into driving forces for the development of health care telematic projects, they amount to the acceptance of and capacity for enterprise-wide solutions, hospitality and capacity to acquire outside knowledge, self-managed, multi-functional team work spirit, reengineering mentality to achieve pertinent technico-cultural solutions.

Temporal Compounding of Heat Waves in the Present and Projected Future

Science.gov (United States)

Baldwin, J. W.; Dessy, J.; Vecchi, G. A.; Oppenheimer, M.

2017-12-01

The hazard of heat waves is projected to increase significantly with global warming, motivating much recent research characterizing various aspects of these extreme events. One less examined aspect of heat waves is their temporal structure. Here we first modify existing heat wave duration definitions to flexibly account for a variety of possible heat wave temporal structures (sequences of hot and cooler days). We then examine past heat waves associated with high mortality using observational reanalysis data, and note that many past heat waves might be better described as series of hot days compounded together with short breaks of cooler days in between. We employ Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) global climate model (GCM) simulations to compare the frequency of these compound heat waves in the present and projected future with higher levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Our results indicate that temporally compound heatwaves will constitute a greater proportion of heat wave risk with global warming. Via examining synthetic autoregressive model data, we propose that this phenomenon is expected when shifting the mean of a time series with some memory and noise. Notably, an increased proportion of compound events implies that vulnerability from prior hot days will play an increasingly large role in heat wave risk, with possible implications for both heat wave-related policy and preparedness.

The Mekong’s future flows

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hoang, Long Phi

2017-01-01

This multidisciplinary study focuses on projecting and adapting to future hydrological changes in the Mekong – an international river of global significance in terms of rapidly increasing human pressures and climate-change vulnerability. A modelling framework was developed to project future

Project studies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Geraldi, Joana; Söderlund, Jonas

2018-01-01

Project organising is a growing field of scholarly inquiry and management practice. In recent years, two important developments have influenced this field: (1) the study and practice of projects have extended their level of analysis from mainly focussing on individual projects to focussing on micro......, and of the explanations of project practices they could offer. To discuss avenues for future research on projects and project practice, this paper suggests the notion of project studies to better grasp the status of our field. We combine these two sets of ideas to analyse the status and future options for advancing...... project research: (1) levels of analysis; and (2) type of research. Analysing recent developments within project studies, we observe the emergence of what we refer to as type 3 research, which reconciles the need for theoretical development and engagement with practice. Type 3 research suggests pragmatic...

Medical oncology future plan of the Spanish Society of Medical Oncology: challenges and future needs of the Spanish oncologists.

Science.gov (United States)

Rivera, F; Andres, R; Felip, E; Garcia-Campelo, R; Lianes, P; Llombart, A; Piera, J M; Puente, J; Rodriguez, C A; Vera, R; Virizuela, J A; Martin, M; Garrido, P

2017-04-01

The SEOM Future Plan is aimed at identifying the main challenges, trends and needs of the medical oncology speciality over the next years, including potential oncologist workforce shortages, and proposing recommendations to overcome them. The estimations of the required medical oncologists workforce are based on an updated Medical Oncologist Register in Spain, Medical Oncology Departments activity data, dedication times and projected cancer incidence. Challenges, needs and future recommendations were drawn from an opinion survey and an advisory board. A shortage of 211 FTE medical oncologist specialists has been established. To maintain an optimal ratio of 158 new cases/FTE, medical oncology workforce should reach 1881 FTE by 2035. Main recommendations to face the growing demand and complexity of oncology services include a yearly growth of 2.5% of medical oncologist's workforce until 2035, and development and application of more accurate quality indicators for cancer care and health outcomes measure.

Climate change adaptation accounting for huge uncertainties in future projections - the case of urban drainage

Science.gov (United States)

Willems, Patrick

2015-04-01

Hydrological design parameters, which are currently used in the guidelines for the design of urban drainage systems (Willems et al., 2013) have been revised, taking the Flanders region of Belgium as case study. The revision involved extrapolation of the design rainfall statistics, taking into account the current knowledge on future climate change trends till 2100. Uncertainties in these trend projections have been assessed after statistically analysing and downscaling by a quantile perturbation tool based on a broad ensemble set of climate model simulation results (44 regional + 69 global control-scenario climate model run combinations for different greenhouse gas scenarios). The impact results of the climate scenarios were investigated as changes to rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves. Thereafter, the climate scenarios and related changes in rainfall statistics were transferred to changes in flood frequencies of sewer systems and overflow frequencies of storage facilities. This has been done based on conceptual urban drainage models. Also the change in storage capacity required to exceed a given overflow return period, has been calculated for a range of return periods and infiltration or throughflow rates. These results were used on the basis of the revision of the hydraulic design rules of urban drainage systems. One of the major challenges while formulating these policy guidelines was the consideration of the huge uncertainties in the future climate change projections and impact assessments; see also the difficulties and pitfalls reported by the IWA/IAHR Joint Committee on Urban Drainage - Working group on urban rainfall (Willems et al., 2012). We made use of the risk concept, and found it a very useful approach to deal with the high uncertainties. It involves an impact study of the different climate projections, or - for practical reasons - a reduced set of climate scenarios tailored for the specific type of impact considered (urban floods in our

Applied aspects of content projecting of lexicology and phraseology teaching of future primary school teachers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Марія Михайлівна Греб

2015-01-01

Full Text Available In the article it is considered the applied aspects of content projecting of lexicology and phraseology teaching of future primary school teachers basing on the principles of developing education. These principles are realized gradually (theoretical, practical, research stages and stage of independent work. Also these principles are guaranteed by the system of exercises and tasks of three levels of complexity which promotes increasing of motivation, self-development, self-realization of subjects of educational process

Projecting future expansion of invasive species: comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Mainali, Kumar P; Warren, Dan L; Dhileepan, Kunjithapatham; McConnachie, Andrew; Strathie, Lorraine; Hassan, Gul; Karki, Debendra; Shrestha, Bharat B; Parmesan, Camille

2015-12-01

Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae) with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (i) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (ii) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (iii) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species' native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e., into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g., boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post hoc test conducted on a new Parthenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our 'best' model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for parthenium

The Future of Utility Customer-Funded Energy Efficiency Programs in the United States: Projected Spending and Savings to 2025

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barbose, Galen [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Goldman, Charles [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Hoffman, Ian [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Billingsley, Megan [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

2012-09-11

We develop projections of future spending on, and savings from, energy efficiency programs funded by electric and gas utility customers in the United States, under three scenarios through 2025. Our analysis, which updates a previous LBNL study, relies on detailed bottom-up modeling of current state energy efficiency policies, regulatory decisions, and demand-side management and utility resource plans. The three scenarios are intended to represent a range of potential outcomes under the current policy environment (i.e., without considering possible major new policy developments). By 2025, spending on electric and gas efficiency programs (excluding load management programs) is projected to double from 2010 levels to $9.5 billion in the medium case, compared to $15.6 billion in the high case and $6.5 billion in the low case. Compliance with statewide legislative or regulatory savings or spending targets is the primary driver for the increase in electric program spending through 2025, though a significant share of the increase is also driven by utility DSM planning activity and integrated resource planning. Our analysis suggests that electric efficiency program spending may approach a more even geographic distribution over time in terms of absolute dollars spent, with the Northeastern and Western states declining from over 70% of total U.S. spending in 2010 to slightly more than 50% in 2025, with the South and Midwest splitting the remainder roughly evenly. Under our medium case scenario, annual incremental savings from customer-funded electric energy efficiency programs increase from 18.4 TWh in 2010 in the U.S. (which is about 0.5% of electric utility retail sales) to 28.8 TWh in 2025 (0.8% of retail sales). These savings would offset the majority of load growth in the Energy Information Administration’s most recent reference case forecast, given specific assumptions about the extent to which future energy efficiency program savings are captured in that forecast

PROJECT-BASED LEARNING IN ENGLISH FOR MEDICINE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zorica Antić

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Project-based learning facilitates hands-on learning in student-driven investigations, resulting in high-quality, challenging activities. Students participate actively in projects that revolve around their interests, questions or needs. PBL also develops the 21st century skills including critical thinking, collaboration and communication. The essence of PBL is problem-solving, a key critical thinking skill. Since problem-solving is an integral part of medicine, projects represent a significant method of instruction in English for Medical Purposes. Depending on their individual interests and abilities, each student contributes to the whole group work and the final outcome. The approach also requires students to work in teams and to communicate their findings. Using real-life problems to motivate students, challenging them to think deeply about meaningful content, and enabling them to work collaboratively are practices that yield benefits for all students and their future careers.

Information and Communication Technology: Design, Delivery, and Outcomes from a Nursing Informatics Boot Camp

Science.gov (United States)

Kleib, Manal; Simpson, Nicole; Rhodes, Beverly

2016-05-31

Information and communication technology (ICT) is integral in today’s healthcare as a critical piece of support to both track and improve patient and organizational outcomes. Facilitating nurses’ informatics competency development through continuing education is paramount to enhance their readiness to practice safely and accurately in technologically enabled work environments. In this article, we briefly describe progress in nursing informatics (NI) and share a project exemplar that describes our experience in the design, implementation, and evaluation of a NI educational event, a one-day boot camp format that was used to provide foundational knowledge in NI targeted primarily at frontline nurses in Alberta, Canada. We also discuss the project outcomes, including lessons learned and future implications. Overall, the boot camp was successful to raise nurses’ awareness about the importance of informatics in nursing practice.

Transportation Energy Futures Series. Projected Biomass Utilization for Fuels and Power in a Mature Market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ruth, M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, T. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Newes, E. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Aden, A. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Warner, E. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Uriarte, C. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Inman, D. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Simpkins, T. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Argo, A. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2013-03-01

The viability of biomass as transportation fuel depends upon the allocation of limited resources for fuel, power, and products. By focusing on mature markets, this report identifies how biomass is projected to be most economically used in the long term and the implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and petroleum use. In order to better understand competition for biomass between these markets and the potential for biofuel as a market-scale alternative to petroleum-based fuels, this report presents results of a micro-economic analysis conducted using the Biomass Allocation and Supply Equilibrium (BASE) modeling tool. The findings indicate that biofuels can outcompete biopower for feedstocks in mature markets if research and development targets are met. The BASE tool was developed for this project to analyze the impact of multiple biomass demand areas on mature energy markets. The model includes domestic supply curves for lignocellulosic biomass resources, corn for ethanol and butanol production, soybeans for biodiesel, and algae for diesel. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Projected Biomass Utilization for Fuels and Power in a Mature Market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ruth, M.; Mai, T.; Newes, E.; Aden, A.; Warner, E.; Uriarte, C.; Inman, D.; Simpkins, T.; Argo, A.

2013-03-01

The viability of biomass as transportation fuel depends upon the allocation of limited resources for fuel, power, and products. By focusing on mature markets, this report identifies how biomass is projected to be most economically used in the long term and the implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and petroleum use. In order to better understand competition for biomass between these markets and the potential for biofuel as a market-scale alternative to petroleum-based fuels, this report presents results of a micro-economic analysis conducted using the Biomass Allocation and Supply Equilibrium (BASE) modeling tool. The findings indicate that biofuels can outcompete biopower for feedstocks in mature markets if research and development targets are met. The BASE tool was developed for this project to analyze the impact of multiple biomass demand areas on mature energy markets. The model includes domestic supply curves for lignocellulosic biomass resources, corn for ethanol and butanol production, soybeans for biodiesel, and algae for diesel. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

Trend analysis of watershed-scale precipitation over Northern California by means of dynamically-downscaled CMIP5 future climate projections.

Science.gov (United States)

Ishida, K; Gorguner, M; Ercan, A; Trinh, T; Kavvas, M L

2017-08-15

The impacts of climate change on watershed-scale precipitation through the 21st century were investigated over eight study watersheds in Northern California based on dynamically downscaled CMIP5 future climate projections from three GCMs (CCSM4, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future climate scenarios. After evaluating the modeling capability of the WRF model, the six future climate projections were dynamically downscaled by means of the WRF model over Northern California at 9km grid resolution and hourly temporal resolution during a 94-year period (2006-2100). The biases in the model simulations were corrected, and basin-average precipitation over the eight study watersheds was calculated from the dynamically downscaled precipitation data. Based on the dynamically downscaled basin-average precipitation, trends in annual depth and annual peaks of basin-average precipitation during the 21st century were analyzed over the eight study watersheds. The analyses in this study indicate that there may be differences between trends of annual depths and annual peaks of watershed-scale precipitation during the 21st century. Furthermore, trends in watershed-scale precipitation under future climate conditions may be different for different watersheds depending on their location and topography even if they are in the same region. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Design Creativity: Future Directions for Integrated Visualisation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jack Steven Goulding

2015-11-01

Full Text Available The Architecture, Engineering and Construction (AEC sectors are facing unprecedented challenges, not just with increased complexity of projects per se, but design-related integration. This requires stakeholders to radically re-think their existing business models (and thinking that underpins them, but also the technological challenges and skills required to deliver these projects. Whilst opponents will no doubt cite that this is nothing new as the sector as a whole has always had to respond to change; the counter to this is that design ‘creativity’ is now much more dependent on integration from day one. Given this, collaborative processes embedded in Building Information Modelling (BIM models have been proffered as a panacea solution to embrace this change and deliver streamlined integration. The veracity of design teams’ “project data” is increasingly becoming paramount - not only for the coordination of design, processes, engineering services, fabrication, construction, and maintenance; but more importantly, facilitate ‘true’ project integration and interchange – the actualisation of which will require firm consensus and commitment. This Special Issue envisions some of these issues, challenges and opportunities (from a future landscape perspective, by highlighting a raft of concomitant factors, which include: technological challenges, design visualisation and integration, future digital tools, new and anticipated operating environments, and training requirements needed to deliver these aspirations. A fundamental part of this Special Issue’s ‘call’ was to capture best practice in order to demonstrate how design, visualisation and delivery processes (and technologies affect the finished product viz: design outcome, design procedures, production methodologies and construction implementation. In this respect, the use of virtual environments are now particularly effective at supporting the design and delivery processes. In

Future Projection of Summer Extreme Precipitation from High Resolution Multi-RCMs over East Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Gayoung; Park, Changyong; Cha, Dong-Hyun; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Suh, Myoung-Seok; Ahn, Joong-Bae; Min, Seung-Ki; Hong, Song-You; Kang, Hyun-Suk

2017-04-01

Recently, the frequency and intensity of natural hazards have been increasing due to human-induced climate change. Because most damages of natural hazards over East Asia have been related to extreme precipitation events, it is important to estimate future change in extreme precipitation characteristics caused by climate change. We investigate future changes in extremal values of summer precipitation simulated by five regional climate models participating in the CORDEX-East Asia project (i.e., HadGEM3-RA, RegCM4, MM5, WRF, and GRIMs) over East Asia. 100-year return value calculated from the generalized extreme value (GEV) parameters is analysed as an indicator of extreme intensity. In the future climate, the mean values as well as the extreme values of daily precipitation tend to increase over land region. The increase of 100-year return value can be significantly associated with the changes in the location (intensity) and scale (variability) GEV parameters for extreme precipitation. It is expected that the results of this study can be used as fruitful references when making the policy of disaster management. Acknowledgements The research was supported by the Ministry of Public Safety and Security of Korean government and Development program under grant MPSS-NH-2013-63 and the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning of Korea (NRF-2016M3C4A7952637) for its support and assistant in completion of the study.

Future disability projections could be improved by connecting to the theory of a dynamic equilibrium.

Science.gov (United States)

Klijs, Bart; Mackenbach, Johan P; Kunst, Anton E

2011-04-01

Projections of future trends in the burden of disability could be guided by models linking disability to life expectancy, such as the dynamic equilibrium theory. This article tests the key assumption of this theory that severe disability is associated with proximity to death, whereas mild disability is not. Using data from the GLOBE study (Gezondheid en Levensomstandigheden Bevolking Eindhoven en omstreken), the association of three levels of self-reported disabilities in activities of daily living with age and proximity to death was studied using logistic regression models. Regression estimates were used to estimate the number of life years with disability for life spans of 75 and 85 years. Odds ratios of 0.976 (not significant) for mild disability, 1.137 for moderate disability, and 1.231 for severe disability showed a stronger effect of proximity to death for more severe levels of disability. A 10-year increase of life span was estimated to result in a substantial expansion of mild disability (4.6 years) compared with a small expansion of moderate (0.7 years) and severe (0.9 years) disability. These findings support the theory of a dynamic equilibrium. Projections of the future burden of disability could be substantially improved by connecting to this theory and incorporating information on proximity to death. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Knowledge Management in a Project Environment: Organisational CT and Project Influences

OpenAIRE

Polyaninova, Taya

2011-01-01

During a project implementation various forms of information and experience are generated within the organization. If this accumulated knowledge is not recorded and shared amongst other projects, this knowledge will be lost and no longer be available to assist future projects. This may lead to increased future projects costs as resources, time and money will be wasted on redefining the knowledge that once existed within the company. By not capturing and redeploying this knowledge, the quality...

Long-term outcomes of the Stop Traumatic OASI Morbidity Project (STOMP).

Science.gov (United States)

Basu, Maya; Smith, Dot

2018-06-09

To evaluate long-term sustainability of the Stop Traumatic OASI Morbidity Project (STOMP) in reducing the incidence of obstetric anal sphincter injury (OASI). A prospective observational study of women undergoing vaginal delivery at a UK district general hospital between September 1, 2014, and February 28, 2017. The principles of STOMP involve encouraging upright positioning, verbal coaching to avoid expulsive pushing and to slow down delivery, and tactile support to the vertex to judge speed and slow down delivery. After a training period, STOMP was implemented for all vaginal deliveries. Clinical and demographic data on women affected by OASI were collected across a 30-month period. The primary outcome measure was the incidence of OASI. There were 8782 vaginal deliveries during the 30-month period after implementation of STOMP. There was a significant decrease in the mean incidence of OASI relative to the 9 months before implementation (P<0.001). There was a significant decrease in the incidence of OASI for both spontaneous vaginal and instrumental deliveries (both P<0.05). There was no change in the frequency of episiotomy. Implementation of STOMP led to a significant decrease in OASI, confirming the sustainability of this approach to improve outcomes. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

SOAP in practice: learning outcomes of a cross-institutional innovation project conducted by teachers, student teachers, and teacher educators

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Prof. Dr. Rob F. Poell; Dr. Audrey Seezink; Prof. Dr. Paul A. Kirschner

2010-01-01

This paper reports on a case study investigating learning outcomes at the individual and organisational level of a cross-institutional innovation project based on the SOAP approach. SOAP integrates Schooling of teachers, Organisational development of schools, Action- and development-oriented

Potential for Coal Power Plants to Co-Fire with Woody Biomass in the U. S. North, 2010-2030: A Technical Document Supporting the Northern Forest Futures Project

Science.gov (United States)

Michael E. Goerndt; Francisco X. Aguilar; Kenneth E. Skog

2015-01-01

Future use of woody biomass to produce electric power in the U.S. North can have an important influence on timber production, carbon storage in forests, and net carbon emissions from producing electric power. The Northern Forest Futures Project (NFFP) has provided regional- and state-level projections of standing forest biomass, land-use change, and timber harvest,...

Seismic studies for Fermilab future collider projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lauh, J.; Shiltsev, V.

1997-11-01

Ground motion can cause significant beam emittance growth and orbit oscillations in large hadron colliders due to a vibration of numerous focusing magnets. Larger accelerator ring circumference leads to smaller revolution frequency and, e.g. for the Fermilab Very Large Hadron Collider(VLHC) 50-150 Hz vibrations are of particular interest as they are resonant with the beam betatron frequency. Seismic measurements at an existing large accelerator under operation can help to estimate the vibrations generated by the technical systems in future machines. Comparison of noisy and quiet microseismic conditions might be useful for proper choice of technical solutions for future colliders. This article presents results of wide-band seismic measurements at the Fermilab site, namely, in the tunnel of the Tevatron and on the surface nearby, and in two deep tunnels in the Illinois dolomite which is though to be a possible geological environment of the future accelerators

Future risk assessment by estimating historical heat wave trends with projected heat accumulation using SimCLIM climate model in Pakistan

Science.gov (United States)

Nasim, Wajid; Amin, Asad; Fahad, Shah; Awais, Muhammad; Khan, Naeem; Mubeen, Muhammad; Wahid, Abdul; Turan, Veysel; Rehman, Muhammad Habibur; Ihsan, Muhammad Zahid; Ahmad, Shakeel; Hussain, Sajjad; Mian, Ishaq Ahmad; Khan, Bushra; Jamal, Yousaf

2018-06-01

Climate change has adverse effects at global, regional and local level. Heat wave events have serious contribution for global warming and natural hazards in Pakistan. Historical (1997-2015) heat wave were analyzed over different provinces (Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan) of Pakistan to identify the maximum temperature trend. Heat accumulation in Pakistan were simulated by the General Circulation Model (GCM) combined with 3 GHG (Green House Gases) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (RCP-4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) by using SimCLIM model (statistical downscaling model for future trend projections). Heat accumulation was projected for year 2030, 2060, and 2090 for seasonal and annual analysis in Pakistan. Heat accumulation were projected to increase by the baseline year (1995) was represented in percentage change. Projection shows that Sindh and southern Punjab was mostly affected by heat accumulation. This study identified the rising trend of heat wave over the period (1997-2015) for Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan (provinces of Pakistan), which identified that most of the meteorological stations in Punjab and Sindh are highly prone to heat waves. According to model projection; future trend of annual heat accumulation, in 2030 was increased 17%, 26%, and 32% but for 2060 the trends were reported by 54%, 49%, and 86% for 2090 showed highest upto 62%, 75%, and 140% for RCP-4.5, RCP-6.0, and RCP-8.5, respectively. While seasonal trends of heat accumulation were projected to maximum values for monsoon and followed by pre-monsoon and post monsoon. Heat accumulation in monsoon may affect the agricultural activities in the region under study.

The Global Climate and Energy Project at Stanford University: Fundamental Research Towards Future Energy Technologies

Science.gov (United States)

Milne, Jennifer L.; Sassoon, Richard E.; Hung, Emilie; Bosshard, Paolo; Benson, Sally M.

The Global Climate and Energy Project (GCEP), at Stanford University, invests in research with the potential to lead to energy technologies with lower greenhouse gas emissions than current energy technologies. GCEP is sponsored by four international companies, ExxonMobil, GE, Schlumberger, and Toyota and supports research programs in academic institutions worldwide. Research falls into the broad areas of carbon based energy systems, renewables, electrochemistry, and the electric grid. Within these areas research efforts are underway that are aimed at achieving break-throughs and innovations that greatly improve efficiency, performance, functionality and cost of many potential energy technologies of the future including solar, batteries, fuel cells, biofuels, hydrogen storage and carbon capture and storage. This paper presents a summary of some of GCEP's activities over the past 7 years with current research areas of interest and potential research directions in the near future.

The Future of Interprofessional Education and Practice for Dentists and Dental Education.

Science.gov (United States)

Andrews, Elizabeth A

2017-08-01

In the ever-changing landscape of education, health professions programs must be adaptable and forward-thinking. Programs need to understand the services students should be educated to provide over the next 25 years. The movement to increase collaboration among health professionals to improve health care outcomes is a significant priority for all health professions. Complex medical issues frequently seen in patients can best be addressed with interprofessional health care teams. Training future health care providers to work in such teams facilitates collaborative care and can result in improved outcomes for patients. What skills will dental students need in 2040 to practice as part of these interprofessional teams? Important skills needed for success are collaboration, communication, professionalism, and the ability to manage medically complex patients. These abilities are in alignment with the four Interprofessional Education Collaborative (IPEC) core competency domains and will continue to be key skills necessary in the future. Transitioning to a one university approach for preclinical and clinical training along with development of an all-inclusive electronic health record will drive this model forward. Faculty training and continuing education for clinicians, residents, and allied health providers will be necessary for comprehensive adoption of a team-based collaborative care system. With the health care delivery system moving towards more patient-centered, team-based care, interprofessional education helps future clinicians develop into confident team members who will lead health care into the future and produce better patient outcomes. This article was written as part of the project "Advancing Dental Education in the 21 st Century."

The main outcomes of the OECD Behaviour of Iodine (BIP) Project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Glowa, Glenn A.; Moore, Chris J.; Ball, Joanne M.

2013-01-01

(FP) tests. In this paper, the main outcomes of the BIP project will be outlined, and their relevance to the Phébus FP project will be examined. In addition to the new experiments performed on adsorption of iodine onto paint, and production of organic iodides from iodine adsorbed on paint, Atomic Energy of Canada Limited (AECL) provided the results from five Radioiodine Test Facility (RTF) experiments. The RTF was an intermediate-scale test facility that operated at AECL’s Whiteshell laboratories in the 1990s. It is expected that BIP members will use this data for code development and verification

Characteristics of the process of culture development project activities (culture of social engineering) at the future bachelors of social work

OpenAIRE

Natalya I. Nikitina; Elena Yu. Romanovaa; Tatyana V. Vasilyeva; Irina N. Nikishina; Veronica M. Grebennikova

2017-01-01

In modern Russia professional activity productivity of social work specialist depends largely on his abilities and skills in the field of social design. University graduate`s (social work bachelor`s) high level of professional-project activity culture can be regarded as one of the necessary conditions of successful labour market adaptation of young specialists in social sphere institutions. The article discusses various aspects of future social work bachelors` vocational project activity cult...

Outcomes-Based Authentic Learning, Portfolio Assessment, and a Systems Approach to ‘Complex Problem-Solving’: Related Pillars for Enhancing the Innovative Role of PBL in Future Higher Education

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cameron Richards

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The challenge of better reconciling individual and collective aspects of innovative problem-solving can be productively addressed to enhance the role of PBL as a key focus of the creative process in future higher education. This should involve ‘active learning’ approaches supported by related processes of teaching, assessment and curriculum. As Biggs & Tan (2011 have suggested, an integrated or systemic approach is needed for the most effective practice of outcomes-based education also especially relevant for addressing relatively simple as well as more complex problems. Such a model will be discussed in relation to the practical example of a Masters subject conceived with interdisciplinary implications, applications, and transferability: ‘sustainable policy studies in science, technology and innovation’. Different modes of PBL might be encouraged in terms of the authentic kinds of ‘complex problem-solving’ issues and challenges which increasingly confront an interdependent and changing world. PBL can be further optimized when projects or cases also involve contexts and examples of research and inquiry. However, perhaps the most crucial pillar is a model of portfolio assessment for linking and encouraging as well as distinguishing individual contributions to collaborative projects and activities.

Projecting county-level populations under three future scenarios: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Stanley J. Zarnoch; H. Ken Cordell; Carter J. Betz

2010-01-01

County-level population projections from 2010 to 2060 are developed under three national population growth scenarios for reporting in the 2010 Renewable Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment. These population growth scenarios are tied to global futures scenarios defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a program within the United Nations...

In modelling effects of global warming, invalid assumptions lead to unrealistic projections.

Science.gov (United States)

Lefevre, Sjannie; McKenzie, David J; Nilsson, Göran E

2018-02-01

In their recent Opinion, Pauly and Cheung () provide new projections of future maximum fish weight (W ∞ ). Based on criticism by Lefevre et al. (2017) they changed the scaling exponent for anabolism, d G . Here we find that changing both d G and the scaling exponent for catabolism, b, leads to the projection that fish may even become 98% smaller with a 1°C increase in temperature. This unrealistic outcome indicates that the current W ∞ is unlikely to be explained by the Gill-Oxygen Limitation Theory (GOLT) and, therefore, GOLT cannot be used as a mechanistic basis for model projections about fish size in a warmer world. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Will biofuel projects in Southeast Asia become white elephants?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goh, Chun Sheng; Lee, Keat Teong

2010-01-01

Southeast Asia's attempt to join the global biofuel development has not been very successful, despite the large amount of subsidies and incentives allotted for biofuel projects. The outcome of these projects has failed to meet expectation due to overrated assumptions and shortsighted policies. Utilization of edible feedstock such as palm oil and sugar cane for biofuel has disrupted the fragile industry due to the fluctuations of feedstock prices. The appropriate research on jatropha to prove its economic and environmental feasibility as energy crop has not been performed. Biofuel development in Southeast Asia remains at an early stage of development and requires highly intensive monitoring and strict legal enforcement to ensure future success.

Oxide and nitride TRU-fuels: lessons drawn from the CONFIRM and FUTURE projects of the 5. European framework programme

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pillon, S.; Wallenius, J.

2004-01-01

The FUTURE and CONFIRM projects address the issue of the design and fabrication of respectively oxide and nitride fuels for the transmutation in accelerator driven system. This paper compares advantages and drawbacks of TRU oxides and nitrides in terms of performance and fabricability. (authors)

Outcomes from the EURATOM–ROSATOM ERCOSAM SAMARA projects on containment thermal-hydraulics for severe accident management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paladino, Domenico; Andreani, Michele; Guentay, Salih; Mignot, Guillaume; Kapulla, Ralf; Paranjape, Sidharth; Sharabi, Medhat; Kisselev, Arkadi; Yudina, Tatiana; Filippov, Aleksandr; Kamnev, Mikhail; Khizbullin, Akhmir; Tyurikov, Oleg; Liang, Zhe; Abdo, Daniele; Brinster, Jérôme; Dabbene, Frédéric; Kelm, Stephan; Klauck, Michael; Götz, Lasse

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Hydrogen distribution in the containment of PWR was investigated for scenario leading to stratification. • The scenario was scaled from a generic PWR containment to four facilities. • Effect of spray, cooler and heat sources was investigated experimentally and with LP and CFD. • Code-to-code benchmarks aiming a scaling up the facilities to a large containment. - Abstract: ERCOSAM and SAMARA are the acronyms for two parallel projects co-financed respectively by EURATOM and ROSATOM during the period 2010–2014 with the general aim to advance the knowledge on the phenomenology associated with the hydrogen and steam spreading and stratification in the LWR containment during a postulated severe accident. The important peculiarity of the projects was in experimental and analytical investigating the impact of systems such as spray, cooler and heat sources (simulating thermal effect of PARs) on the distribution of gas mixture (e.g. hydrogen, steam, air). This paper presents the main outcomes of the ERCOSAM–SAMARA projects.

Outcomes from the EURATOM–ROSATOM ERCOSAM SAMARA projects on containment thermal-hydraulics for severe accident management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Paladino, Domenico, E-mail: domenico.paladino@psi.ch [Paul Scherrer Institut (Switzerland); Andreani, Michele [Paul Scherrer Institut (Switzerland); Guentay, Salih [Innovative, Technology Development GmbH (Switzerland); Mignot, Guillaume; Kapulla, Ralf; Paranjape, Sidharth; Sharabi, Medhat [Paul Scherrer Institut (Switzerland); Kisselev, Arkadi; Yudina, Tatiana; Filippov, Aleksandr [Nuclear Safety Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow 115191 (Russian Federation); Kamnev, Mikhail; Khizbullin, Akhmir; Tyurikov, Oleg [JSC “Afrikantov OKB Mechanical Engineering”, Nizhny Novgorod 603074 (Russian Federation); Liang, Zhe [CNL-2251 Speakman Drive, Mississauga, ON L5K 1B2 (Canada); Abdo, Daniele; Brinster, Jérôme; Dabbene, Frédéric [CEA, DEN, DM2S, STMF, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Kelm, Stephan [Forschungszentrum Juelich, 52425 Jülich (Germany); Klauck, Michael; Götz, Lasse [RWTH Aachen University (Germany); and others

2016-11-15

Highlights: • Hydrogen distribution in the containment of PWR was investigated for scenario leading to stratification. • The scenario was scaled from a generic PWR containment to four facilities. • Effect of spray, cooler and heat sources was investigated experimentally and with LP and CFD. • Code-to-code benchmarks aiming a scaling up the facilities to a large containment. - Abstract: ERCOSAM and SAMARA are the acronyms for two parallel projects co-financed respectively by EURATOM and ROSATOM during the period 2010–2014 with the general aim to advance the knowledge on the phenomenology associated with the hydrogen and steam spreading and stratification in the LWR containment during a postulated severe accident. The important peculiarity of the projects was in experimental and analytical investigating the impact of systems such as spray, cooler and heat sources (simulating thermal effect of PARs) on the distribution of gas mixture (e.g. hydrogen, steam, air). This paper presents the main outcomes of the ERCOSAM–SAMARA projects.

Projecting future drug expenditures--2009.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoffman, James M; Shah, Nilay D; Vermeulen, Lee C; Doloresco, Fred; Martin, Patrick K; Blake, Sharon; Matusiak, Linda; Hunkler, Robert J; Schumock, Glen T

2009-02-01

Drug expenditure trends in 2007 and 2008, projected drug expenditures for 2009, and factors likely to influence drug expenditures are discussed. Various factors are likely to influence drug expenditures in 2009, including drugs in development, the diffusion of new drugs, drug safety concerns, generic drugs, Medicare Part D, and changes in the drug supply chain. The increasing availability of important generic drugs and drug safety concerns continue to moderate growth in drug expenditures. The drug supply chain remains dynamic and may influence drug expenditures, particularly in specialized therapeutic areas. Initial data suggest that the Medicare Part D benefit has influenced drug expenditures, but the ultimate impact of the benefit on drug expenditures remains unclear. From 2006 to 2007, total U.S. drug expenditures increased by 4.0%, with total spending rising from $276 billion to $287 billion. Drug expenditures in clinics continue to grow more rapidly than in other settings, with a 9.9% increase from 2006 to 2007. Hospital drug expenditures increased at a moderate rate of only 1.6% from 2006 to 2007; through the first nine months of 2008, hospital drug expenditures increased by only 2.8% compared with the same period in 2007. In 2009, we project a 0-2% increase in drug expenditures in outpatient settings, a 1-3% increase in expenditures for clinic-administered drugs, and a 1-3% increase in hospital drug expenditures.

Investigating the Aftermath of Terror: Fundamental Outcomes, Methodological Choices, and Future Directions.

Science.gov (United States)

Gradus, Jaimie L; Marx, Brian P; Sloan, Denise M

2016-06-01

Acts of terrorism are becoming increasingly common throughout the world. These events represent a significant public health concern given the associated health consequences. Although it is clear that terrorist attacks have mental and physical health sequelae, the exact nature and prevalence of these consequences are unclear. Epidemiological research can play an important role in better understanding the mental and physical impact of terrorist attacks. In this editorial, we highlight recent epidemiological research on these terrorism-related health outcomes. We also provide suggestions for how future studies can build on the existing literature and describe ways in which epidemiological methods can be harnessed to extend the current literature. Lastly, we offer recommendations on how to best prepare communities for the aftermath of terrorist attacks, highlighting secondary intervention and prevention strategies. Overall, multilevel strategies are needed to adequately cope with the growing rise of terrorist acts, and these strategies will have to be reassessed as the nature of terrorist attacks changes.

Future challenges for woody biomass projections

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schadauer, K.; Barreiro, Susana; Schelhaas, M.; McRoberts, Ronald E.

2017-01-01

Many drivers affect woody biomass projections including forest available for wood supply, market behavior, forest ownership, distributions by age and yield classes, forest typologies resulting from different edaphic, climatic conditions, and last but not least, how these factors are incorporated

Leadership and management influences the outcome of wildlife reintroduction programs: findings from the Sea Eagle Recovery Project

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexandra E. Sutton

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Wildlife reintroductions and translocations are statistically unlikely to succeed. Nevertheless, they remain a critical part of conservation because they are the only way to actively restore a species into a habitat from which it has been extirpated. Past efforts to improve these practices have attributed the low success rate to failures in the biological knowledge (e.g., ignorance of social behavior, poor release site selection, or to the inherent challenges of reinstating a species into an area where threats have already driven it to local extinction. Such research presumes that the only way to improve reintroduction outcomes is through improved biological knowledge. This emphasis on biological solutions may have caused researchers to overlook the potential influence of other factors on reintroduction outcomes. I employed a grounded theory approach to study the leadership and management of a successful reintroduction program (the Sea Eagle Recovery Project in Scotland, UK and identify four critical managerial elements that I theorize may have contributed to the successful outcome of this 50-year reintroduction. These elements are: 1. Leadership & Management: Small, dedicated team of accessible experts who provide strong political and scientific advocacy (“champions” for the project. 2. Hierarchy & Autonomy: Hierarchical management structure that nevertheless permits high individual autonomy. 3. Goals & Evaluation: Formalized goal-setting and regular, critical evaluation of the project’s progress toward those goals. 4. Adaptive Public Relations: Adaptive outreach campaigns that are open, transparent, inclusive (esp. linguistically, and culturally relevant.

Learning Outcomes Report

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stoyanov, Slavi; Spoelstra, Howard; Burgoyne, Louise; O’Tuathaigh, Colm

2018-01-01

Aim of the study The learning outcomes study, conducted as part of WP3 of the BioApp project, has as objectives: (a) generating a comprehensive list of the learning outcomes; (b) reaching an agreement on the scope and priority of the learning outcomes, and (c) making suggestions for the further

Recent trends of severe head injury in Japan Neurotrauma Data Bank with special reference to road traffic accident. Comparison of clinical features and outcome between Project 1998 and Project 2004

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ono, Junichi; Sakamoto, Tetsuya; Kawamata, Tatsuro; Tokutomi, Takashi; Ogawa, Takeki; Shigemori, Minoru; Yamaura, Akira; Nakamura, Norio

2009-01-01

This study was conducted to clarify the recent trends of severe head injury in the Japan Neurotrauma Data Bank (JNTDB) with special reference to traffic accident. In the JNTDB, the number of severely head-injured patients (Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score of 8 or less) were 832 in Project 1998 and 797 in Project 2004. Those were divided into 2 groups: traffic accident (TA) group, and non-TA (nTA) group. In addition, the former group was classified into 4 groups: 4 wheel vehicle (4WV) group, motorcycle (MC) group, bicycle (BC) group, and pedestrian (P) group. Analyzed here were cause of injury, age distribution, incidence of alcohol intake, means of transportation, clinical severity (GCS and injury severity score), initial CT findings (Traumatic Coma Data Bank), and outcome at discharge (Glasgow Outcome Scale). In the Project 2004; Traffic accident was less common as the cause of injury. The proportion of younger patients was lower in the TA group, especially in the 4WV and MC groups. Incidence of alcohol intake was lower in the TA group, particularly in the MC groups. Patient transfer by helicopter was more common in both the TA and nTA groups. The proportion of GCS of 3 to 5 was lower in the TA group, especially in the MC group. In the initial CT findings, type 3 of diffuse injury and evacuated mass were less frequent in both groups, and in the 4WV, BC, and P groups. Outcome at discharge: Mortality rate was lower in both groups, and in the 4WV, MC and P groups, but the percentage of good outcomes was unchanged. These results indicated the recent trends of severely head-injured patients who were injured by traffic accident. But there were some problems, such as study protocol and meaningless results, so that further verification is indispensable in the JNTDB study. (author)

Changes in record-breaking temperature events in China and projections for the future

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Hanqing; Liu, Chun; Lu, Yanyu; He, Dongyan; Tian, Hong

2017-06-01

As global warming intensifies, more record-breaking (RB) temperature events are reported in many places around the world where temperatures are higher than ever before http://cn.bing.com/dict/search?q=.&FORM=BDVSP6&mkt=zh-cn. The RB temperatures have caused severe impacts on ecosystems and human society. Here, we address changes in RB temperature events occurring over China in the past (1961-2014) as well as future projections (2006-2100) using observational data and the newly available simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The number of RB events has a significant multi-decadal variability in China, and the intensity expresses a strong decrease from 1961 to 2014. However, more frequent RB events occurred in mid-eastern and northeastern China over last 30 years (1981-2010). Comparisons with observational data indicate multi-model ensemble (MME) simulations from the CMIP5 model perform well in simulating RB events for the historical run period (1961-2005). CMIP5 MME shows a relatively larger uncertainty for the change in intensity. From 2051 to 2100, fewer RB events are projected to occur in most parts of China according to RCP 2.6 scenarios. Over the longer period from 2006 to 2100, a remarkable increase is expected for the entire country according to RCP 8.5 scenarios and the maximum numbers of RB events increase by approximately 600 per year at end of twenty-first century.

SOAP in Practice: Learning Outcomes of a Cross-Institutional Innovation Project Conducted by Teachers, Student Teachers, and Teacher Educators

Science.gov (United States)

Seezink, Audrey; Poell, Rob; Kirschner, Paul

2010-01-01

This paper reports on a case study investigating learning outcomes at the individual and organisational level of a cross-institutional innovation project based on the SOAP approach. SOAP integrates "S"chooling of teachers, "O"rganisational development of schools, "A"ction- and development-oriented research, and…

Project SEARCH UK--Evaluating Its Employment Outcomes

Science.gov (United States)

Kaehne, Axel

2016-01-01

Background: The study reports the findings of an evaluation of Project SEARCH UK. The programme develops internships for young people with intellectual disabilities who are about to leave school or college. The aim of the evaluation was to investigate at what rate Project SEARCH provided employment opportunities to participants. Methods: The…

Acuity-adaptable nursing care: exploring its place in designing the future patient room.

Science.gov (United States)

Kwan, Melissa A

2011-01-01

To substantiate the anticipated benefits of the original acuity-adaptable care delivery model as defined by innovator Ann Hendrich. In today's conveyor belt approach to healthcare, upon admission and through discharge, patients are commonly transferred based on changing acuity needs. Wasted time and money and inefficiencies in hospital operations often result-in addition to jeopardizing patient safety. In the last decade, a handful of hospitals pioneered the implementation of the acuity-adaptable care delivery model. Built on the concept of eliminating patient transfers, the projected outcomes of acuity-adaptable units-decreased average lengths of stay, increased patient safety and satisfaction, and increased nurses' satisfaction from reduced walking distances-make a good case for a model patient room. Although some hospitals experienced the projected benefits of the acuity-adaptable care delivery model, sustaining the outcomes proved to be difficult; hence, the original definition of acuity-adaptable units has not fared well. Variations on the original concept demonstrate that eliminating patient transfers has not been completely abandoned in healthcare redesign and construction initiatives. Terms such as flex-up, flex-down, universal room, and single-stay unit have since emerged. These variations convolute the search for empirical evidence to support the anticipated benefits of the original concept. To determine the future of this concept and its variants, a significant amount of outcome data must be generated by piloting the concept in different hospital settings. As further refinements and adjustments to the concept emerge, the acuity-adaptable room may find a place in future hospitals.

Quantifying the effect of autonomous adaptation to global river flood projections: application to future flood risk assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Kinoshita, Youhei; Tanoue, Masahiro; Watanabe, Satoshi; Hirabayashi, Yukiko

2018-01-01

This study represents the first attempt to quantify the effects of autonomous adaptation on the projection of global flood hazards and to assess future flood risk by including this effect. A vulnerability scenario, which varies according to the autonomous adaptation effect for conventional disaster mitigation efforts, was developed based on historical vulnerability values derived from flood damage records and a river inundation simulation. Coupled with general circulation model outputs and future socioeconomic scenarios, potential future flood fatalities and economic loss were estimated. By including the effect of autonomous adaptation, our multimodel ensemble estimates projected a 2.0% decrease in potential flood fatalities and an 821% increase in potential economic losses by 2100 under the highest emission scenario together with a large population increase. Vulnerability changes reduced potential flood consequences by 64%-72% in terms of potential fatalities and 28%-42% in terms of potential economic losses by 2100. Although socioeconomic changes made the greatest contribution to the potential increased consequences of future floods, about a half of the increase of potential economic losses was mitigated by autonomous adaptation. There is a clear and positive relationship between the global temperature increase from the pre-industrial level and the estimated mean potential flood economic loss, while there is a negative relationship with potential fatalities due to the autonomous adaptation effect. A bootstrapping analysis suggests a significant increase in potential flood fatalities (+5.7%) without any adaptation if the temperature increases by 1.5 °C-2.0 °C, whereas the increase in potential economic loss (+0.9%) was not significant. Our method enables the effects of autonomous adaptation and additional adaptation efforts on climate-induced hazards to be distinguished, which would be essential for the accurate estimation of the cost of adaptation to

Crop immunity against viruses: outcomes and future challenges

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Valerie eNicaise

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Viruses cause epidemics on all major cultures of agronomic importance, representing a serious threat to global food security. As strict intracellular pathogens, they cannot be controlled chemically and prophylactic measures consist mainly in the destruction of infected plants and excessive pesticide applications to limit the population of vector organisms. A powerful alternative frequently employed in agriculture relies on the use of crop genetic resistances, approach that depends on mechanisms governing plant-virus interactions. Hence, knowledge related to the molecular bases of viral infections and crop resistances is key to face viral attacks in fields. Over the past 80 years, great advances have been made on our understanding of plant immunity against viruses. Although most of the known natural resistance genes have long been dominant R genes (encoding NBS-LRR proteins, a vast number of crop recessive resistance genes were cloned in the last decade, emphasizing another evolutive strategy to block viruses. In addition, the discovery of RNA interference pathways highlighted a very efficient antiviral system targeting the infectious agent at the nucleic acid level. Insidiously, plant viruses evolve and often acquire the ability to overcome the resistances employed by breeders. The development of efficient and durable resistances able to withstand the extreme genetic plasticity of viruses therefore represents a major challenge for the coming years. This review aims at describing some of the most devastating diseases caused by viruses on crops and summarizes current knowledge about plant-virus interactions, focusing on resistance mechanisms that prevent or limit viral infection in plants. In addition, I will discuss the current outcomes of the actions employed to control viral diseases in fields and the future investigations that need to be undertaken to develop sustainable broad-spectrum crop resistances against viruses.

Developing future precipitation events from historic events: An Amsterdam case study.

Science.gov (United States)

Manola, Iris; van den Hurk, Bart; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

2016-04-01

Due to climate change, the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events is expected to increase. It is therefore of high importance to develop climate change scenarios tailored towards the local and regional needs of policy makers in order to develop efficient adaptation strategies to reduce the risks from extreme weather events. Current approaches to tailor climate scenarios are often not well adopted in hazard management, since average changes in climate are not a main concern to policy makers, and tailoring climate scenarios to simulate future extremes can be complex. Therefore, a new concept has been introduced recently that uses known historic extreme events as a basis, and modifies the observed data for these events so that the outcome shows how the same event would occur in a warmer climate. This concept is introduced as 'Future Weather', and appeals to the experience of stakeholders and users. This research presents a novel method of projecting a future extreme precipitation event, based on a historic event. The selected precipitation event took place over the broader area of Amsterdam, the Netherlands in the summer of 2014, which resulted in blocked highways, disruption of air transportation, flooded buildings and public facilities. An analysis of rain monitoring stations showed that an event of such intensity has a 5 to 15 years return period. The method of projecting a future event follows a non-linear delta transformation that is applied directly on the observed event assuming a warmer climate to produce an "up-scaled" future precipitation event. The delta transformation is based on the observed behaviour of the precipitation intensity as a function of the dew point temperature during summers. The outcome is then compared to a benchmark method using the HARMONIE numerical weather prediction model, where the boundary conditions of the event from the Ensemble Prediction System of ECMWF (ENS) are perturbed to indicate a warmer climate. The two

Clinical and radiographic outcomes of meniscus surgery and future targets for biologic intervention: A review of data from the MOON Group.

Science.gov (United States)

Westermann, Robert W; Jones, Morgan; Wasserstein, David; Spindler, Kurt P

Meniscus injury and treatment occurred with the majority of anterior cruciate ligament reconstructions (ACLR) in the multicenter orthopedic outcomes (MOON) cohort. We describe the patient-reported outcomes, radiographic outcomes, and predictors of pain from meniscus injuries and treatment in the setting of ACLR. Patient-reported outcomes improve significantly following meniscus repair with ACLR, but differences exist based on the meniscus injury laterally (medial or lateral). Patients undergoing medial meniscus repair have worse patient-reported outcomes and more pain compared to those with uninjured menisci. However, lateral meniscal tears can be repaired with similar outcomes as uninjured menisci. Medial meniscal treatment (meniscectomy or repair) results in a significant loss of joint space at 2 years compared to uninjured menisci. Menisci treated with excision had a greater degree of joint space loss compared to those treated with repair. Clinically significant knee pain is more common following injuries to the medial meniscus and increased in patients who undergo early re-operation after initial ACLR. Future research efforts aimed at improving outcomes after combined ACLR and meniscus treatment should focus on optimizing biologic and mechanical environments that promote healing of medial meniscal tears sustained during ACL injury.

Women's perceived internal control of future pregnancy outcomes and its related factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Maleki, Azam; Mazloomzadeh, Saeideh

2013-03-01

With regards to the importance of women's beliefs in improving pregnancy outcomes, this study was performed to determine the perceived internal control on future pregnancy outcomes and its related factors in women who participated in pre-marital counseling. In a cross-sectional study, women's perceived internal control was investigated. The study population comprised the women in reproductive age of whom 400 were selected by random sampling. Data collection instrument was a questionnaire consisting of demographic, pre-conceptional care, and internal control questions. Two categories of favorite and not favorite levels of internal control were defined based on the total score. The validity of the questionnaire was determined via content validity method by use of experts' opinion and its reliability was evaluated through the calculation of Cronbach's alpha coefficient which was 0.76. Data were analyzed through frequency tables, correlation coefficient, and Chi-square test at the confidence level of 0.95. Two hundred sixty-five (65%) women had a good perceived internal control and it was significantly associated with the age, educational level, and hearing about pre-conceptional care. The internal control score also showed a positive and significant correlation with both age and the subject knowledge about folic acid (r = 0.19 and r = 0.15, respectively). The majority of women had a favorite perceived internal control. Since age and educational level were the affecting factors on the perceived internal control of women, promoting the level of internal control in young women and those with low education in pre-marital counseling classes seems necessary.

Effects of Episodic Future Thinking and Self-Projection on Children's Prospective Memory Performance.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anett Kretschmer-Trendowicz

Full Text Available The present study is the first to investigate the benefits of episodic future thinking (EFT at encoding on prospective memory (PM in preschool (age: M = 66.34 months, SD = 3.28 and primary school children (age: M = 88.36 months, SD = 3.12. A second aim was to examine if self-projection influences the possible effects of EFT instructions. PM was assessed using a standard PM paradigm in children with a picture-naming task as the ongoing activity in which the PM task was embedded. Further, two first- and two second-order ToM tasks were administered as indicator of children's self-projection abilities. Forty-one preschoolers and 39 school-aged children were recruited. Half of the participants in each age group were instructed to use EFT as a strategy to encode the PM task, while the others received standard PM instructions. Results revealed a significant age effect, with school-aged children significantly outperforming preschoolers and a significant effect of encoding condition with overall better performance when receiving EFT instructions compared to the standard encoding condition. Even though the interaction between age group and encoding condition was not significant, planned comparisons revealed first evidence that compared to the younger age group, older children's PM benefitted more from EFT instructions during intention encoding. Moreover, results showed that although self-projection had a significant impact on PM performance, it did not influence the effects of EFT instructions. Overall, results indicate that children can use EFT encoding strategies to improve their PM performance once EFT abilities are sufficiently developed. Further, they provide first evidence that in addition to executive functions, which have already been shown to influence the development of PM across childhood, self-projection seems to be another key mechanism underlying this development.

Assessing Risk in Costing High-energy Accelerators: from Existing Projects to the Future Linear Collider

CERN Document Server

Lebrun, Philippe

2010-01-01

High-energy accelerators are large projects funded by public money, developed over the years and constructed via major industrial contracts both in advanced technology and in more conventional domains such as civil engineering and infrastructure, for which they often constitute one-of markets. Assessing their cost, as well as the risk and uncertainty associated with this assessment is therefore an essential part of project preparation and a justified requirement by the funding agencies. Stemming from the experience with large circular colliders at CERN, LEP and LHC, as well as with the Main Injector, the Tevatron Collider Experiments and Accelerator Upgrades, and the NOvA Experiment at Fermilab, we discuss sources of cost variance and derive cost risk assessment methods applicable to the future linear collider, through its two technical approaches for ILC and CLIC. We also address disparities in cost risk assessment imposed by regional differences in regulations, procedures and practices.

Foresight Infectious Diseases China Project--a novel approach to anticipating future trends in risk of infectious diseases in China: methodology and results from an initial application.

Science.gov (United States)

Nicoll, A; Huang, J; Xie, Z

2009-07-09

The project devised a simple but novel methodology for identifying possible future trends in infectious diseases in animals and humans in China, of priority concern to the Chinese authorities. It used a model of disease drivers (social, economic, biological or environmental factors that affect disease outcomes, by changing the behaviour of diseases, sources or pathways) devised for the Foresight Programme in the United Kingdom. Nine families of drivers were adapted to Chinese circumstances and matrices were constructed to identify the likely relationship of single infectious diseases or families of diseases to the drivers. The likely future trends in those drivers in China were determined by interviews with 36 independent Chinese experts. These trends included not only potentially adverse animal and human movements but also opportunities for innovative surveillance methods, more use of hospitals, antimicrobials and vaccines. Some human behaviours and social trends were expected to increase the risk of infections (in particular sexually transmitted and healthcare-associated infections) while at the same time the experts thought the awareness of risk in the Chinese population would increase. The results suggested a number of areas where the Chinese authorities may experience difficulties in the future, such as rising numbers of healthcare-associated infections, zoonoses and other emerging diseases and sexually transmitted infections (including HIV). Not making firm predictions, this work identifies priority disease groups requiring surveillance and consideration of countermeasures as well as recommending strengthening basic surveillance and response mechanisms for unanticipatable zoonoses and other emerging disease threats.

Future Organization of Oral Health Services Delivery: From 2012 to 2042.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, L Jackson

2017-09-01

The United States is currently experiencing a vortex of change in both general health and oral health care delivery, the ultimate outcome of which is still not well understood. The specific focus of this article is to examine the future organization of the oral health services delivery system (OHSDS) in the U.S., with special attention given to the role of large group dental practices (LGDPs) in that future. The article describes the various types of LGDPs and their ability to change the economic characteristics of the OHSDS. Large geographically distributed corporate group dental practices (LGDCGDPs) are the type that may expand their market share to the extent that they could change the economic characteristics of the OHSDS. A wide range of scenarios is used to project the expansion of LGDCGDPs into the future. The scenarios modeled are not intended as predictions but rather to present a range of possible OHSDS market structures that may emerge over the next 30 years. The implications of each scenario for the economic competition within the OHSDS are described. Possible implications of these trends for dental education are also discussed. This article was written as part of the project "Advancing Dental Education in the 21 st Century."

Conducting Systematic Outcome Assessment in Private Addictions Treatment Settings

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gerard J Connors

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Systematic outcome assessment is central to ascertaining the impact of treatment services and to informing future treatment initiatives. This project was designed to be conducted within the clinical operations of 4 private addictions treatment centers. A structured interview was used to assess patients’ alcohol and other drug use and related variables (on treatment entry and at 1, 3, and 6 months following treatment discharge. The primary outcomes were percentage of days abstinent (PDA from alcohol and drugs, PDA from alcohol, and PDA from other drugs. Collateral reports during follow-up also were gathered. A total of 280 patients (56% men across the 4 programs participated. Percentage of days abstinent for each outcome increased significantly from baseline to the 1-month follow-up assessment, and this change was maintained at the 3- and 6-month follow-up assessments. Collateral reports mirrored the patient follow-up reports. Secondary outcomes of patient ratings of urges/cravings, depression, anxiety, and general life functioning all indicated significant improvement from baseline over the course of the follow-up. The results suggest the feasibility of conducting systematic outcome assessment in freestanding private addictions treatment environments.

Requirements for future control room and visualisation features in the Web-of-Cells framework defined in the ELECTRA project

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tornelli, Carlo; Zuelli, Roberto; Marinell, Mattia

2017-01-01

project, that proposes a new Web-of-Cell (WoC) power system control architecture. Dedicated visualisation features are proposed, aimed to support the control room operators activities in a WoC-oriented approach. Furthermore, the work takes into account the point of view of network operators about future...

The Marketplace Variables in Successful and Unsuccessful NPD Projects in Technology Intensive Companies

OpenAIRE

Haverila, Matti

2010-01-01

We present an exploratory investigation of how managers conceptualize and perceive ‘marketplace’ variables in successful and unsuccessful New Product Development (NPD) projects, and explore the role that marketplace variables play in differentiating between successful and unsuccessful NPD outcomes. Limitations and future research directions are also discussed. Our findings indicate that managers perceive the marketplace in multiple ways during the NPD process and also that differences exis...

The Study of Nursing Care project: back to the future for contemporary nursing research?

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Kylie M; Crookes, Patrick A

2012-11-01

  To discuss the Study of Nursing Care project, an initiative from the late 1970s in the UK. The article explores the impact of the Study of Nursing Care on nursing research, and considers to what extent it presents a useful model for contemporary nursing research.   It is acknowledged internationally that the nursing academic workforce is ageing and dwindling. Many possible solutions are being debated with all agreeing that the next generation of evidence based nurse leaders is urgently required.   In this article, the authors survey existing workforce schemes, describe the Study of Nursing Care series, published in the 1970s, and draw on interviews and correspondence conducted in 2009 with four of the original Study of Nursing Care research assistants.   The Study of Nursing Care project poses a potential response to academic workforce issues. This article discusses the evolution of the project, its methods and operation and considers its possible implications for contemporary practice. Implications for nursing.  The Study of Nursing Care model demonstrates the clear benefits of fully committed funding, a programmatic approach towards research development, and the importance of selecting the right kind of people for the work, in a national scheme.   The authors argue that although the clinical outcomes it set out to achieve remain elusive, the project produced a cohort of nurse researchers who went on to give important leadership in nursing, including in nursing academia/research. A contemporary version of the Study of Nursing Care has important potential to generate the next generation of nurse researchers, and leaders, into the twenty-first century. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

ENLIGHT envisions its future

CERN Multimedia

Antonella Del Rosso

2015-01-01

Last week, the European Network for LIGht-ion Hadron Therapy (ENLIGHT) met in Cracow to discuss how to best imagine its future. Over its 13 years of life, the network has succeeded in blending traditionally separate scientific communities with the common goal of more effective treatments against cancer and improving patient outcome.   Group photo of the ENLIGHT members participating in the network's annual meeting, held in Cracow on 18-19 September, 2015. Today, ENLIGHT includes over 300 members from more than 20 countries. Clinicians, physicists, biologists and engineers with experience and interest in particle therapy are working in unison under the network’s umbrella. ENLIGHT has run four EU-funded projects – ULICE, PARTNER, ENVISION and ENTERVISION – and has managed to gather experts from the various fields to design common strategies to fight cancer with particles. “ENLIGHT has worked as an open collaborative network ...

The Past, Present, and Future of the Air Force's Future Total Force

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Duffy, Dennis P

2004-01-01

This project examines the history of the Total Force policy since its inception in 1970 through its implementation today in an effort to determine a future direction for the Air Force's Future Total Force initiative...

The impact of web-based HOT (Healthy Outcomes for Teens) Project on risk for type 2 diabetes: a randomized controlled trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Muzaffar, Henna; Castelli, Darla M; Scherer, Jane; Chapman-Novakofski, Karen

2014-12-01

The HOT (Healthy Outcome for Teens) Project is an innovative online educational intervention for middle school children for prevention of diabetes and obesity by balancing food intake with physical activity. The objective was to improve knowledge, outcome expectations, self-efficacy, and self-reported food intake and skills and to compare a passive online learning (POL) control group with an active online learning (AOL) treatment group by implementing a social cognitive theory (SCT)-grounded online intervention. In total, 214 participants were recruited from three middle schools. Full data were secured for 181 students. Six valid, reliable questionnaires were administered online, pre/post, to both the AOL and POL groups to assess knowledge gain, self-reported intake, and meal planning skills, as well as change in SCT constructs. Subjects in the AOL group improved significantly for all five categories of planning a meal questionnaire (P=0.001) and also for outcome expectations for exercise (P=0.001). At postintervention, no significant differences were found for composite scores of exercise self-efficacy, weight efficacy lifestyle, and rapid eating assessment plan questionnaires between AOL versus POL (by Mann-Whitney test). We conclude that teens participating in the AOL version of the HOT Project intervention acquired skills for planning a meal and improved outcome expectations for exercise.

Flood Frequency Analysis of Future Climate Projections in the Cache Creek Watershed

Science.gov (United States)

Fischer, I.; Trihn, T.; Ishida, K.; Jang, S.; Kavvas, E.; Kavvas, M. L.

2014-12-01

Effects of climate change on hydrologic flow regimes, particularly extreme events, necessitate modeling of future flows to best inform water resources management. Future flow projections may be modeled through the joint use of carbon emission scenarios, general circulation models and watershed models. This research effort ran 13 simulations for carbon emission scenarios (taken from the A1, A2 and B1 families) over the 21st century (2001-2100) for the Cache Creek watershed in Northern California. Atmospheric data from general circulation models, CCSM3 and ECHAM5, were dynamically downscaled to a 9 km resolution using MM5, a regional mesoscale model, before being input into the physically based watershed environmental hydrology (WEHY) model. Ensemble mean and standard deviation of simulated flows describe the expected hydrologic system response. Frequency histograms and cumulative distribution functions characterize the range of hydrologic responses that may occur. The modeled flow results comprise a dataset suitable for time series and frequency analysis allowing for more robust system characterization, including indices such as the 100 year flood return period. These results are significant for water quality management as the Cache Creek watershed is severely impacted by mercury pollution from historic mining activities. Extreme flow events control mercury fate and transport affecting the downstream water bodies of the Sacramento River and Sacramento- San Joaquin Delta which provide drinking water to over 25 million people.

Projected future climate changes in the context of geological and geomorphological hazards.

Science.gov (United States)

Liggins, Felicity; Betts, Richard A; McGuire, Bill

2010-05-28

On palaeoclimate time scales, enhanced levels of geological and geomorphological activity have been linked to climatic factors, including examples of processes that are expected to be important in current and future anthropogenic climate change. Planetary warming leading to increased rainfall, ice-mass loss and rising sea levels is potentially relevant to geospheric responses in many geologically diverse regions. Anthropogenic climate change, therefore, has the potential to alter the risk of geological and geomorphological hazards through the twenty-first century and beyond. Here, we review climate change projections from both global and regional climate models in the context of geohazards. In assessing the potential for geospheric responses to climate change, it appears prudent to consider regional levels of warming of 2 degrees C above average pre-industrial temperature as being potentially unavoidable as an influence on processes requiring a human adaptation response within this century. At the other end of the scale when considering changes that could be avoided by reduction of emissions, scenarios of unmitigated warming exceeding 4 degrees C in the global average include much greater local warming in some regions. However, considerable further work is required to better understand the uncertainties associated with these projections, uncertainties inherent not only in the climate modelling but also in the linkages between climate change and geospheric responses.

Future Projection with an Extreme-Learning Machine and Support Vector Regression of Reference Evapotranspiration in a Mountainous Inland Watershed in North-West China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhenliang Yin

2017-11-01

Full Text Available This study aims to project future variability of reference evapotranspiration (ET0 using artificial intelligence methods, constructed with an extreme-learning machine (ELM and support vector regression (SVR in a mountainous inland watershed in north-west China. Eight global climate model (GCM outputs retrieved from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 were employed to downscale monthly ET0 for the historical period 1960–2005 as a validation approach and for the future period 2010–2099 as a projection of ET0 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The following conclusions can be drawn: the ELM and SVR methods demonstrate a very good performance in estimating Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO-56 Penman–Monteith ET0. Variation in future ET0 mainly occurs in the spring and autumn seasons, while the summer and winter ET0 changes are moderately small. Annually, the ET0 values were shown to increase at a rate of approximately 7.5 mm, 7.5 mm, 0.0 mm (8.2 mm, 15.0 mm, 15.0 mm decade−1, respectively, for the near-term projection (2010–2039, mid-term projection (2040–2069, and long-term projection (2070–2099 under the RCP4.5 (RCP8.5 scenario. Compared to the historical period, the relative changes in ET0 were found to be approximately 2%, 5% and 6% (2%, 7% and 13%, during the near, mid- and long-term periods, respectively, under the RCP4.5 (RCP8.5 warming scenarios. In accordance with the analyses, we aver that the opportunity to downscale monthly ET0 with artificial intelligence is useful in practice for water-management policies.

Future development of project management competences.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Silvius, A.J.G.; Batenburg, R.

2009-01-01

This paper describes a study into the expected development of the competences of the project manager in the year 2027. The study was performed amongst the members of IPMA-Netherlands during the summer of 2007. In the study the 46 competences of the International Competence Baseline 3 (ICB 3) were

Description of future drought indices in Virginia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hyunwoo Kang

2017-10-01

Full Text Available This article presents projected future drought occurrences in five river basins in Virginia. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 climate models were used to derive input variables of multiple drought indices, such as the Standardized Soil Moisture index (SSI, the Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI, and the Modified Palmer Drought Severity Index (MPDSI for both historic and future periods. The results of SSI indicate that there was an overall increase in agricultural drought occurrences and that these were caused by increases in evapotranspiration and runoff. However, the results of the MSDI and MPDSI projected a decrease in drought occurrences in future periods due to a greater increase in precipitation in the future. Furthermore, GCM-downscaled products (precipitation and temperature were verified using comparisons with historic observations, and the results of uncertainty analyses suggest that the lower and upper bounds of future drought projections agree with historic conditions.

Defining a set of standardised outcome measures for newly diagnosed patients with multiple myeloma using the Delphi consensus method: the IMPORTA project.

Science.gov (United States)

Blade, Joan; Calleja, Miguel Ángel; Lahuerta, Juan José; Poveda, José Luis; de Paz, Héctor David; Lizán, Luis

2018-02-22

To define a standard set of outcomes and the most appropriate instruments to measure them for managing newly diagnosed patients with multiple myeloma (MM). A literature review and five discussion groups facilitated the design of two-round Delphi questionnaire. Delphi panellists (haematologists, hospital pharmacists and patients) were identified by the scientific committee, the Spanish Program of Haematology Treatments Foundation, the Spanish Society of Hospital Pharmacies and the Spanish Community of Patients with MM. Panellist's perception about outcomes' suitability and feasibility of use was assessed on a seven-point Likert scale. Consensus was reached when at least 75% of the respondents reached agreement or disagreement. A scientific committee led the project. Fifty-one and 45 panellists participated in the first and second Delphi rounds, respectively. Consensus was reached to use overall survival, progression-free survival, minimal residual disease and treatment response to assess survival and disease control. Panellists agreed to measure health-related quality of life, pain, performance status, fatigue, psychosocial status, symptoms, self-perception on body image, sexuality and preferences/satisfaction. However, panellist did not reach consensus about the feasibility of assessing in routine practice psychosocial status, symptoms, self-perception on body image and sexuality. Consensus was reached to collect patient-reported outcomes through the European Organisation for the Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) Quality of Life Questionnaire (QLQ) Core questionnaire 30 (C30), three items from EORTC-QLQ-Multiple Myeloma (MY20) and EORTC-QLQ-Breast Cancer (BR23), pain Visual Analogue Scale, Morisky-Green and ad hoc questions about patients' preferences/satisfaction. A consensual standard set of outcomes for managing newly diagnosed patients with MM has been defined. The feasibility of its implementation in routine practice will be assessed in a future pilot

Future Electricity Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pinson, Pierre

2015-01-01

The changing face of energy production in Europe necessitates a rethink in the way that electricity markets are structured. The ‘5s’ (Future Electricity Markets) project is a multi-disciplinary project that is looking to challenge the current approach to the design and operation of electricity...

Technology Transfer Programme In Reactor Digital Instrumentation And Control System (REDICS) Project: Knowledge, Experiences And Future Expectations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nurfarhana Ayuni Joha; Mohamad Puad Abu; Izhar Abu Hussin; Ridzuan Abdul Mutalib; Zareen Khan Abdul Jalil Khan; Mohd Khairulezwan Abdul Manan; Mohd Sabri Minhat; Mohd Idris Taib

2013-01-01

The PUSPATI TRIGA MARK II research reactor in Malaysia was commissioned in 1982. After 31 years of operation, Nuclear Malaysia is taking an approach for a better research and development in nuclear radiations as well as the technical services that provided. Reactor TRIGA PUSPATI (RTP) is currently upgrading its control console from analogue to digital system. The Reactor Digital Instrumentation and Control System (ReDICS) project is done on cooperation with Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI), Korea including the technical part from the design stage until commissioning as well as the Technology Transfer Program (TTP). TTP in this ReDICS project is a part of Human Resource and System Development Program. It was carried out from the design stage until the commissioning of the system. It covers all subjects related to the design on the digital system and the requirements for the operation of RTP. The objective of this paper is to share the knowledge and experiences gained through this ReDICS project. This paper will also discuss the future expectations from this ReDICS project for Nuclear Malaysia and its personnel, as well as to the country. (author)

Projecting future impacts of hurricanes on the carbon balance of eastern U.S. forests

Science.gov (United States)

Fisk, J. P.; Hurtt, G. C.; Chambers, J. Q.; Zeng, H.; Dolan, K.; Flanagan, S.; Rourke, O.; Negron Juarez, R. I.

2011-12-01

In U.S. Atlantic coastal areas, hurricanes are a principal agent of catastrophic wind damage, with dramatic impacts on the structure and functioning of forests. Substantial recent progress has been made to estimate the biomass loss and resulting carbon emissions caused by hurricanes impacting the U.S. Additionally, efforts to evaluate the net effects of hurricanes on the regional carbon balance have demonstrated the importance of viewing large disturbance events in the broader context of recovery from a mosaic of past events. Viewed over sufficiently long time scales and large spatial scales, regrowth from previous storms may largely offset new emissions; however, changes in number, strength or spatial distribution of extreme disturbance events will result in changes to the equilibrium state of the ecosystem and have the potential to result in a lasting carbon source or sink. Many recent studies have linked climate change to changes in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes. In this study, we use a mechanistic ecosystem model, the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, driven by scenarios of future hurricane activity based on historic activity and future climate projections, to evaluate how changes in hurricane frequency, intensity and spatial distribution could affect regional carbon storage and flux over the coming century. We find a non-linear response where increased storm activity reduces standing biomass stocks reducing the impacts of future events. This effect is highly dependent on the spatial pattern and repeat interval of future hurricane activity. Developing this kind of predictive modeling capability that tracks disturbance events and recovery is key to our understanding and ability to predict the carbon balance of forests.

The SCIDOTS Project: Evidence of benefits of an integrated tobacco cessation intervention in tuberculosis care on treatment outcomes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Syed Sulaiman Syed Azhar

2011-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background There is substantial evidence to support the association between tuberculosis (TB and tobacco smoking and that the smoking-related immunological abnormalities in TB are reversible within six weeks of cessation. Therefore, connecting TB and tobacco cessation interventions may produce significant benefits and positively impact TB treatment outcomes. However, no study has extensively documented the evidence of benefits of such integration. SCIDOTS Project is a study from the context of a developing nation aimed to determine this. Methods An integrated TB-tobacco intervention was provided by trained TB directly observed therapy short-course (DOTS providers at five chest clinics in Malaysia. The study was a prospective non-randomized controlled intervention using quasi-experimental design. Using Transtheoretical Model approach, 120 eligible participants who were current smokers at the time of TB diagnosis were assigned to either of two treatment groups: conventional TB DOTS plus smoking cessation intervention (integrated intervention or SCIDOTS group or conventional TB DOTS alone (comparison or DOTS group. At baseline, newly diagnosed TB patients considering quitting smoking within the next 30 days were placed in the integrated intervention group, while those who were contemplating quitting were assigned to the comparison group. Eleven sessions of individualized cognitive behavioral therapy with or without nicotine replacement therapy were provided to each participant in the integrated intervention group. The impacts of the novel approach on biochemically validated smoking cessation and TB treatment outcomes were measured periodically as appropriate. Results A linear effect on both 7-day point prevalence abstinence and continuous abstinence was observed over time in the intervention group. At the end of 6 months, patients who received the integrated intervention had significantly higher rate of success in quitting smoking when

The SCIDOTS Project: evidence of benefits of an integrated tobacco cessation intervention in tuberculosis care on treatment outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Awaisu, Ahmed; Nik Mohamed, Mohamad Haniki; Mohamad Noordin, Noorliza; Abd Aziz, Noorizan; Syed Sulaiman, Syed Azhar; Muttalif, Abdul Razak; Ahmad Mahayiddin, Aziah

2011-09-23

There is substantial evidence to support the association between tuberculosis (TB) and tobacco smoking and that the smoking-related immunological abnormalities in TB are reversible within six weeks of cessation. Therefore, connecting TB and tobacco cessation interventions may produce significant benefits and positively impact TB treatment outcomes. However, no study has extensively documented the evidence of benefits of such integration. SCIDOTS Project is a study from the context of a developing nation aimed to determine this. An integrated TB-tobacco intervention was provided by trained TB directly observed therapy short-course (DOTS) providers at five chest clinics in Malaysia. The study was a prospective non-randomized controlled intervention using quasi-experimental design. Using Transtheoretical Model approach, 120 eligible participants who were current smokers at the time of TB diagnosis were assigned to either of two treatment groups: conventional TB DOTS plus smoking cessation intervention (integrated intervention or SCIDOTS group) or conventional TB DOTS alone (comparison or DOTS group). At baseline, newly diagnosed TB patients considering quitting smoking within the next 30 days were placed in the integrated intervention group, while those who were contemplating quitting were assigned to the comparison group. Eleven sessions of individualized cognitive behavioral therapy with or without nicotine replacement therapy were provided to each participant in the integrated intervention group. The impacts of the novel approach on biochemically validated smoking cessation and TB treatment outcomes were measured periodically as appropriate. A linear effect on both 7-day point prevalence abstinence and continuous abstinence was observed over time in the intervention group. At the end of 6 months, patients who received the integrated intervention had significantly higher rate of success in quitting smoking when compared with those who received the conventional TB

Software Support for the Classical, Contemporary and Future Project Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jakov Crnkovic

2006-04-01

Full Text Available The volume and complexity of Project Management (PM raises many questions for managers. What exactly are we managing? People? Performance? Efficiency? Effectiveness? Cost? Time? At what levels do projects become challenging and worthy of significant management attention? Can some projects be left on auto-pilot? Must others be managed more aggressively? What metrics are useful in Project Management? How can they be integrated with normal performance metrics in the organization? How can metrics be built into assessment programs that work? How can projects be monitored, re-planned to stay within the original budget and schedule deadlines? How good is the PM software support? Do we really need PM software packages or it should be the integral part of the company's information system (IS? Where is the knowledge about company's previous projects and performance? Are we able to establish company or even industry wide standards for project management? Can we (or should we move from the PMBOK® guidelines and use other approaches? We discussing important questions in PM: software products, responsibilities for concurrently executing several projects (multi-projects with multi objectives and multiple deadlines, introducing a need for initiation, design, execution, and control using a virtual project management and application of the organizational project maturity model.

Future changes in the East Asian rain band projected by global atmospheric models with 20-km and 60-km grid size

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kusunoki, Shoji; Mizuta, Ryo [Meteorological Research Institute, Climate Research Department, Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan); Matsueda, Mio [Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan)

2011-12-15

Global warming projection experiments were conducted using a 20-km mesh global atmospheric model, focusing on the change in the rain band of East Asian summer monsoon. To assess the uncertainty of climate change projections, we performed ensemble simulations with the 60-km resolution model combining four different SSTs and three atmospheric initial conditions. In the present-day climate simulations, the 20-km model reproduces the rain band of East Asian summer monsoon better than lower resolution models in terms of geographical distribution and seasonal march. In the future climate simulation by the 20-km model, precipitation increases over the Yangtze River valley in May through July, Korean peninsula in May, and Japan in July. The termination of rainy season over Japan tends to be delayed until August. Ensemble simulations by the 60-km model show that precipitation in the future climate for July increases over the Yangtze River valley, the East China Sea and Japan. These changes in precipitation are partly consistent with those projected by the 20-km model. Simulations by the 20-km and 60-km models consistently show that in the future climate the termination of rainy season over Japan tends to be delayed until August. The changes in the vertically integrated water vapor flux show the intensification of clockwise moisture transport over the western Pacific subtropical high. Most precipitation changes over the East Asia can be interpreted as the moisture convergence resulting from change in the horizontal transport of water vapor. (orig.)

Project (inverted exclamation mark)EXITO!: success through diversity and universality for outcomes improvement among Hispanic home care patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Woerner, Louise; Espinosa, Javier; Bourne, Susan; O'Toole, Marie; Ingersoll, Gail L

2009-01-01

The National Health Disparities Report notes that Hispanics have poorer quality of care in 23 of 38 core measures. The result of this disparity is great personal and health system costs, which could be reduced. Prior studies have focused on access and language. We studied outcomes improvement. The purpose of this project was to develop a replicable theory-based outcomes improvement model for delivery of nursing care to Hispanic patients. The Leininger Sunrise Enabler approach was used to design a program specific to the cultural needs of a home care population. Outcome and Assessment Information Set (OASIS) data from 125 unduplicated home care patients were tracked. Nursing care delivery was analyzed using ethnographic research techniques. Delivery of nursing care using a culturally congruent approach reduced acute hospitalization and emergent care visits. Medication management and customer and nursing satisfaction also improved. National standards for culturally and linguistically appropriate services in health care help reduce healthcare disparities, but improving Hispanic outcomes requires moving beyond symptoms and symptom management to transcultural care. The estimated savings to the health care system are significant.

Projected Outcomes of Nurse-Family Partnership Home Visitation During 1996-2013, USA.

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Ted R

2015-08-01

Nurse-Family Partnership (NFP) targets intensive prenatal and postnatal home visitation by registered nurses to low-income first-time mothers. Through 2013, 177,517 pregnant women enrolled in NFP programs. This article projects how NFP will affect their lives and the lives of their babies. NFP has been evaluated in six randomized trials and several more limited analyses of operational programs. We systematically reviewed evaluation findings on 21 outcomes and calculated effects on three more. We added outcome data from the NFP national data system and personal communications that filled outcome data gaps on some trials. We assumed effectiveness in replication declined by 21.8 %, proportionally with the decline in mean visits per family from trials to operational programs. By 2031, NFP program enrollments in 1996-2013 will prevent an estimated 500 infant deaths, 10,000 preterm births, 13,000 dangerous closely spaced second births, 4700 abortions, 42,000 child maltreatment incidents, 36,000 intimate partner violence incidents, 90,000 violent crimes by youth, 594,000 property and public order crimes (e.g., vandalism, loitering) by youth, 36,000 youth arrests, and 41,000 person-years of youth substance abuse. They will reduce smoking during pregnancy, pregnancy complications, childhood injuries, and use of subsidized child care; improve language development; increase breast-feeding; and raise compliance with immunization schedules. They will eliminate the need for 4.8 million person-months of child Medicaid spending and reduce estimated spending on Medicaid, TANF, and food stamps by $3.0 billion (present values in 2010 dollars). By comparison, NFP cost roughly $1.6 billion. Thus, NFP appears to be a sound investment. It saves money while enriching the lives of participating low-income mothers and their offspring and benefiting society more broadly by reducing crime and safety net demand.

Energy: options for the future. Curriculum development project for high school teachers. Final report. [Packet

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carroll, T.O.

1978-04-01

Recent state and regional energy crises demonstrate the delicate balance between energy systems, the environment, and the economy. Indeed, the interaction between these three elements of society is very complex. This project develops curriculum materials that would better provide students with an understanding and awareness of fundamental principles of energy supply, conversion processes, and utilization now and in the future. The project had two specific objectives: to transfer knowledge of energy systems, analysis techniques, and advanced technologies from the energy analyst community to the teacher participants; and to involve teachers in the preparation of modular case studies on energy issues for use within the classroom. These curriculum modules are intended to enhance the teacher's ability to provide energy-related education to students within his or her own academic setting. The project is organized as a three-week summer program, as noted in the flyer (Appendix A). Mornings are spent in seminars with energy and environmental specialists (their handout lecture notes are included as Appendix B); afternoons are devoted to high school curriculum development based on the seminar discussions. The curriculum development is limited to five areas: conservation, electricity demand scheduling, energy in the food system, new technologies (solar, wind, biomass), and environment. Appendix C consists of one-day lession plans in these areas.

Status of nuclear regulatory research and its future perspectives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, J. I.; Kim, W. S.; Kim, M. W.

1999-01-01

A comprehensive investigation of the regulatory research comprising an examination of the research system, its areas and contents, and the goals and financial resources is undertaken. As a result of this study, the future direction of regulatory research and its implementation strategies are suggested to resolve the current issues emerging from this examination. The major issues identified in the study are; (a) an insufficient investment in nuclear regulatory and safety research, (b) an interfacial discrepancy between similar research areas, and (c) a limitation of utilizing research results. To resolve these issues, several measures are proposed : (1) developing a lead project to establish a comprehensive infrastructure for enhancing research cooperation between nuclear organizations including institutes, industry, and universities, with an aim to improve cooperation between projects and to strengthen overall coordination functions among research projects, (2) introducing a certification system on research outcome to promote the proliferation of both research results themselves and their application with a view to enhancing the research quality, (3) strengthening the cooperative system to promote the international cooperative research, and (4) digitalizing all documents and materials relevant to safety and regulatory research to establish KIMS (knowledge and information based management system). It is expected that the aforementioned measures suggested in this study will enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of both nuclear regulatory and safety research, if they are implemented after deliberating with the government and related nuclear industries in the near future

Implementing an interprofessional first-year teamwork project: some key reflections.

Science.gov (United States)

McNaughton, Susan Maree

2013-09-01

Implementing an interprofessional teamwork project for first-year students presents pedagogical and practical challenges. While transferable skills and attributes are important, engagement of students with limited professional experience in teamwork depends on relevance to current learning needs. This report outlines principles learned from planning and implementing a teamwork project for an interprofessional health administration and service development course. Practising interprofessional teamwork as leaders and teachers, aligning with previous, current and future teamwork content and processes and responding to student feedback and achievement have been the key factors in shaping the project over three semesters. Face-to-face and online interprofessional teamwork learning has necessitated developing resources that support self-direction, using familiar technology and providing enabling physical environments. Implications for first-year interprofessional teamwork are that structured well-resourced processes, responsiveness and alignment of learning all improve student outcomes.

Carbon offset potentials and design: Anticipating future public policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trexler, M.C.; Kosloff, L.H.; Gowen, M.

1994-01-01

Carbon offsets offer CO 2 emitters the opportunity to compensate for some proportion of their CO 2 emissions through the pursuit of emissions reduction or carbon sequestration projects beyond their own operational boundaries. The flexibility to pursue carbon offsets ''off-site'' can dramatically reduce the costs of achieving a given net emissions reduction. The future role of carbon offsets, however, continues to be a topic of considerable debate. Several processes are currently under way nationally and internationally that will help shape this role. This paper discusses how alternative policy outcomes could encourage or restrict the viability of carbon offsets as a component of corporate climate change mitigation portfolios and proposes criteria by which projects should be evaluated prior to the finalization of national or international policy frameworks. Based on these outcomes, the potential for offsets could be very large or very modest. It is vital that policy development in the offset arena account for the still voluntary nature of mitigation efforts and that the objective of climate change mitigation not be forgotten in the push for offset rules and regulations. At the same time, carbon offsets are far from a panacea for climate change mitigation and should be evaluated in the context of a larger global mitigation portfolio

Overview of ITER project. Objective, history, status of development, structure and its future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsuda, S.

2003-01-01

The objective of ITER Project is to demonstrate the scientific and technological feasibility of fusion energy for peaceful use. To achieve this goal, the Conceptual Design Activities (CDA 1988-1990) and the Engineering Design Activities (EDA 1992-2001) were conducted by the joint effort of EU, Japan, RF and US under the auspices of IAEA. Engineering design has been developed consistently with plasma physics databases obtained by the world-wide magnetic fusion devices up to and during the EDA. Technology R and D including development, manufacturing and testing of scalable models of major components have been also conducted and ensured manufacturing and technical feasibility of ITER. Such technical readiness to start ITER construction urged formal government negotiation initially by Canada, EU, Japan and RF, and intense meetings have been held since November 2001. The US and China have joined since Feb. 2003. Four candidate sites have been proposed by Canada, EU and Japan for construction and have been evaluated. Once the agreement will be made, the construction takes about 10 years to complete, followed by the operation and exploitation phase lasting about 20 years. This paper gives an overview of ITER Project including its role in the long range fusion program, history, status of development, collaboration structure and its future program. (author)

Does nailfold capillaroscopy help predict future outcomes in systemic sclerosis? A systematic literature review.

Science.gov (United States)

Paxton, Dolcie; Pauling, John D

2018-02-14

Nailfold capillaroscopy (NC) is an important diagnostic tool in systemic sclerosis (SSc). Confirmation of NC as a prognostic factor could facilitate earlier intervention and slow disease progression in SSc. We undertook a systematic literature review to evaluate the prognostic value of NC in predicting SSc disease progression. Standardised searches of EMBASE and MEDLINE were undertaken to identify longitudinal studies of adult subjects with SSc reporting the prognostic value of NC for any aspect of disease progression and/or survival. Non-English, non-original research, animal studies, non-adult studies and non-full length reports were excluded from the analysis (PROSPERO 2017:CRD42017071719). Wide heterogeneity in study design, prognostic factor measurement and study outcomes necessitated a qualitative data synthesis. The "QUality In Prognosis Studies" (QUIPS) risk-of-bias tool was used to assess study quality. Study selection, data extraction and risk-of-bias assessment were each undertaken independently by 2 reviewers and consensus reached where necessary. Of 942 retrieved articles, 18 studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The majority of studies (17/18, 94%) reported positive associations between baseline NC appearances (using a variety of qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative NC endpoints) and clinical outcomes including digital ulcer (DU) occurrence/healing, survival, disease progression (using domains of Medsger disease severity scale), calcinosis, skin progression, pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), and/or a composite analysis of "cardiovascular events". Application of the QUIPS tool identified a moderate-high risk of potential bias in 6/18 studies for study participation, 3/18 studies for study attrition, 10/18 for prognostic factor measurement, 5/18 for outcome measurement, 13/18 for confounders and 13/18 for statistical analyses. Study quality limited the strength of the conclusions drawn from these studies. The most important source of

Projection of future runoff change using climate elasticity method derived from Budyko framework in major basins across China

Science.gov (United States)

Xing, Wanqiu; Wang, Weiguang; Zou, Shan; Deng, Chao

2018-03-01

This study established a climate elasticity method based on Budyko hypothesis and enhanced it by selecting the most effective Budyko-type formula to strengthen the runoff change prediction reliability. The spatiotemporal variations in hydrologic variables (i.e., runoff, precipitation and potential evaporation) during historical period were revealed first and the climate elasticities of runoff were investigated. The proposed climate elasticity method was also applied to project the spatiotemporal variations in future runoff and its key influencing factors in 35 watersheds across China. Wherein, the future climate series were retrieved by consulting the historical series, informed by four global climate models (GCMs) under representative concentration pathways from phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Wang-Tang equation was selected as the optimal Budyko-type equation for its best ability in reproducing the runoff change (with a coefficient of determination and mean absolute error of 0.998 and 1.36 mm, respectively). Observed runoff presents significant decreasing trends in the northern and increasing trends in the southern regions of China, and generally its change is identified to be more sensitive to climatic variables in Hai River Basin and lower Yellow River Basin. Compared to the runoff during the reference period, positive change rates in the north and negative change rates in the south of China in the mid-21st century can be practically generalized from the majority of GCMs projections. This maybe resulted from the increasing precipitation, especially in parts of northern basins. Meanwhile, GCMs project a consistently upward trend in potential evaporation although significant decreasing trends occur in the majority of catchments for the historical period. The results indicate that climate change will possibly bring some changes to the water resources over China in the mid-21st century and some countermeasures of water resources planning

The Challenge of Integrating OHS into Industrial Project Risk Management: Proposal of a Methodological Approach to Guide Future Research (Case of Mining Projects in Quebec, Canada

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adel Badri

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Although risk management tools are put to good use in many industrial sectors, some large projects have been met with numerous problems due to failure to take occupational health and safety (OHS into consideration. In spite of the high level of risk and uncertainty associated with many industrial projects, the number of studies of methods for managing all known risks systematically remains small. Under effervescent economic conditions, industries must meet several challenges associated with frequent project start-ups. In highly complex and uncertain environments, rigorous management of risk remains indispensable for avoiding threats to the success of projects. Many businesses seek continually to create and improve integrated approaches to risk management. This article puts into perspective the complexity of the challenge of integrating OHS into industrial project risk management. A conceptual and methodological approach is proposed to guide future research focused on meeting this challenge. The approach is based on applying multi-disciplinary research modes to a complex industrial context in order to identify all scenarios likely to contain threats to humans or the environment. A case study is used to illustrate the potential of the proposed approach for application and its contribution to meeting the challenge of taking OHS into consideration. On-site researchers were able to develop a new approach that helped two mining companies in Quebec (Canada to achieve successful integration of OHS into expansion projects.

WindNet: Improving the impact assessment of wind power projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christopher R. Jones

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Growing international demand for renewable energy has led to rapid growth in the wind power sector and wind farms are becoming an increasingly common feature of landscapes and seascapes in many countries. However, as the most appropriate locations within established markets are taken up, and as wind power penetrates new markets, there is an increasing likelihood that proposed projects will encroach on sensitive landscapes and residential areas. This will present challenges for the industry, particularly due to the impact that public opinion can have upon the outcomes of planning decisions about specific projects. This article introduces the four key dimensions of the WindNet programme, which are helping to elucidate some of the socio-technical debates that will likely shape the future of the wind power sector. The article outlines studies investigating (1 public responses to cumulative landscape and visual impacts, (2 the auditory impact of wind power projects on human health, (3 the science of wind farm design and its implications for planning, and (4 the relevance of the democratic deficit explanation of the so-called "social gap" in wind farm siting. The outcomes of the research being conducted by WindNet stand to help reduce uncertainty within the planning process and assist in providing a more comprehensive and fairer assessment of the possible impacts associated with wind power project development.

Future waste treatment and energy systems – examples of joint scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Münster, M.; Finnveden, G.; Wenzel, H.

2013-01-01

Highlights: • Approach for use of scenarios dealing with both waste management and energy issues. • Overall scenarios for the common project and sub-scenarios in parts of the project. • Combining different types of scenarios to the tools of different disciplines. • Use of explorative external scenarios based on marginals for consequential LCA. - Abstract: Development and use of scenarios for large interdisciplinary projects is a complicated task. This article provides practical examples of how it has been carried out in two projects addressing waste management and energy issues respectively. Based on experiences from the two projects, recommendations are made for an approach concerning development of scenarios in projects dealing with both waste management and energy issues. Recommendations are given to develop and use overall scenarios for the project and leave room for sub-scenarios in parts of the project. Combining different types of scenarios is recommended, too, in order to adapt to the methods and tools of different disciplines, such as developing predictive scenarios with general equilibrium tools and analysing explorative scenarios with energy system analysis tools. Furthermore, as marginals identified in differing future background systems determine the outcomes of consequential life cycle assessments (LCAs), it is considered advisable to develop and use explorative external scenarios based on possible marginals as a framework for consequential LCAs. This approach is illustrated using an on-going Danish research project

Psychological Pathways Linking Social Support to Health Outcomes: A Visit with the “Ghosts” of Research Past, Present, and Future

Science.gov (United States)

Uchino, Bert N.; Bowen, Kimberly; Carlisle, McKenzie; Birmingham, Wendy

2012-01-01

Contemporary models postulate the importance of psychological mechanisms linking perceived and received social support to physical health outcomes. In this review, we examine studies that directly tested the potential psychological mechanisms responsible for links between social support and health-relevant physiological processes (1980s to 2010). Inconsistent with existing theoretical models, no evidence was found that psychological mechanisms such as depression, perceived stress, and other affective processes are directly responsible for links between support and health. We discuss the importance of considering statistical/design issues, emerging conceptual perspectives, and limitations of our existing models for future research aimed at elucidating the psychological mechanisms responsible for links between social support and physical health outcomes. PMID:22326104

Procrastination, consideration of future consequences, and episodic future thinking.

Science.gov (United States)

Rebetez, Marie My Lien; Barsics, Catherine; Rochat, Lucien; D'Argembeau, Arnaud; Van der Linden, Martial

2016-05-01

Despite the intrinsic temporal nature of procrastination, little research has examined the link between this form of self-regulatory failure and the consideration of future consequences, and no study has addressed the link between procrastination and episodic future thinking. The aim of the present study was to explore these relationships. Participants were asked to project themselves into possible future events and to rate the amount of sensory-perceptual details and autonoetic consciousness associated with their representations. They were also asked to complete questionnaires that assessed procrastination, the consideration of future consequences, and negative affect. Results showed that both the consideration of future consequences and episodic future thinking were associated with procrastination, and in particular with procrastination-related decision making abilities and procrastination-related motivational dispositions, respectively. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The SOLUTIONS project: challenges and responses for present and future emerging pollutants in land and water resources management.

Science.gov (United States)

Brack, Werner; Altenburger, Rolf; Schüürmann, Gerrit; Krauss, Martin; López Herráez, David; van Gils, Jos; Slobodnik, Jaroslav; Munthe, John; Gawlik, Bernd Manfred; van Wezel, Annemarie; Schriks, Merijn; Hollender, Juliane; Tollefsen, Knut Erik; Mekenyan, Ovanes; Dimitrov, Saby; Bunke, Dirk; Cousins, Ian; Posthuma, Leo; van den Brink, Paul J; López de Alda, Miren; Barceló, Damià; Faust, Michael; Kortenkamp, Andreas; Scrimshaw, Mark; Ignatova, Svetlana; Engelen, Guy; Massmann, Gudrun; Lemkine, Gregory; Teodorovic, Ivana; Walz, Karl-Heinz; Dulio, Valeria; Jonker, Michiel T O; Jäger, Felix; Chipman, Kevin; Falciani, Francesco; Liska, Igor; Rooke, David; Zhang, Xiaowei; Hollert, Henner; Vrana, Branislav; Hilscherova, Klara; Kramer, Kees; Neumann, Steffen; Hammerbacher, Ruth; Backhaus, Thomas; Mack, Juliane; Segner, Helmut; Escher, Beate; de Aragão Umbuzeiro, Gisela

2015-01-15

SOLUTIONS (2013 to 2018) is a European Union Seventh Framework Programme Project (EU-FP7). The project aims to deliver a conceptual framework to support the evidence-based development of environmental policies with regard to water quality. SOLUTIONS will develop the tools for the identification, prioritisation and assessment of those water contaminants that may pose a risk to ecosystems and human health. To this end, a new generation of chemical and effect-based monitoring tools is developed and integrated with a full set of exposure, effect and risk assessment models. SOLUTIONS attempts to address legacy, present and future contamination by integrating monitoring and modelling based approaches with scenarios on future developments in society, economy and technology and thus in contamination. The project follows a solutions-oriented approach by addressing major problems of water and chemicals management and by assessing abatement options. SOLUTIONS takes advantage of the access to the infrastructure necessary to investigate the large basins of the Danube and Rhine as well as relevant Mediterranean basins as case studies, and puts major efforts on stakeholder dialogue and support. Particularly, the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) Common Implementation Strategy (CIS) working groups, International River Commissions, and water works associations are directly supported with consistent guidance for the early detection, identification, prioritisation, and abatement of chemicals in the water cycle. SOLUTIONS will give a specific emphasis on concepts and tools for the impact and risk assessment of complex mixtures of emerging pollutants, their metabolites and transformation products. Analytical and effect-based screening tools will be applied together with ecological assessment tools for the identification of toxicants and their impacts. The SOLUTIONS approach is expected to provide transparent and evidence-based candidates or River Basin Specific Pollutants in the case

The Future of Medical Dosimetry

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Adams, Robert D., E-mail: robert_adams@med.unc.edu

2015-07-01

The world of health care delivery is becoming increasingly complex. The purpose of this manuscript is to analyze current metrics and analytically predict future practices and principles of medical dosimetry. The results indicate five potential areas precipitating change factors: a) evolutionary and revolutionary thinking processes, b) social factors, c) economic factors, d) political factors, and e) technological factors. Outcomes indicate that significant changes will occur in the job structure and content of being a practicing medical dosimetrist. Discussion indicates potential variables that can occur within each process and change factor and how the predicted outcomes can deviate from normative values. Finally, based on predicted outcomes, future opportunities for medical dosimetrists are given.

Future climate and wildfire: ecosystem projections of area burned in the western US

Science.gov (United States)

Littell, J. S.; Duffy, P.; Battisti, D. S.; McKenzie, D.; Peterson, D. L.

2010-12-01

The area burned by fire in ecosystems of the western United States has been closely linked to climate in the paleoecological record and in the modern record. Statistical models of area burned show that the climatic controls on area burned vary with vegetation type (Littell et al. 2009). In more arid or systems (grasslands, shrublands, woodlands), antecedent climatic controls on fire were associated first with the production of fuels and secondarily with drought in the year of fire. These relationships typically manifested as wetter and sometimes cooler conditions in the seasons prior to the fire season. Area burned in forest ecosystems and some woodlands was primarily associated with drought conditions, specifically increased temperature and decreased precipitation in the year of fire and the seasons leading up to the fire season. These climatic controls indicate the role of climate in drying existing fuels. Statistical fire models trained on the late 20th century for ecoprovinces in the West would be useful for projecting area burned, at least until vegetation type conversion driven by climate and disturbance occurs. To that end, we used ~ 2.5 degree gridded future climate fields derived for a multi-GCM ensemble of 1C and 2C temperature increase forcing to develop future ecoprovince monthly and seasonal average temperature and associated precipitation and used these as predictors in statistical fire models of future projected area burned. We also conducted modeling scenarios with the ensemble temperature increase paired with historical precipitation. Most ecoprovinces had increases in area burned, with a range of ~ 67% to over 600% . Ecoprovinces that are primarily sensitive to precipitation changes exhibit smaller increases than those most sensitive to temperature (forest systems). We also developed exceedance probabilities. Some ecoprovinces show large increases in area burned but low exceedance probabilities, suggest that the area burned is concentrated more

Future Changes in Surface Runoff over Korea Projected by a Regional Climate Model under A1B Scenario

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ji-Woo Lee

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This study assesses future change of surface runoff due to climate change over Korea using a regional climate model (RCM, namely, the Global/Regional Integrated Model System (GRIMs, Regional Model Program (RMP. The RMP is forced by future climate scenario, namely, A1B of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4. The RMP satisfactorily reproduces the observed seasonal mean and variation of surface runoff for the current climate simulation. The distribution of monsoonal precipitation-related runoff is adequately captured by the RMP. In the future (2040–2070 simulation, it is shown that the increasing trend of temperature has significant impacts on the intra-annual runoff variation. The variability of runoff is increased in summer; moreover, the strengthened possibility of extreme occurrence is detected in the future climate. This study indicates that future climate projection, including surface runoff and its variability over Korea, can be adequately addressed on the RMP testbed. Furthermore, this study reflects that global warming affects local hydrological cycle by changing major water budget components. This study adduces that the importance of runoff should not be overlooked in regional climate studies, and more elaborate presentation of fresh-water cycle is needed to close hydrological circulation in RCMs.

A Discussion of Future Time Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

McInerney, Dennis M.

2004-01-01

A growing area of research in educational psychology is future time perspective and its relationship to desired educational outcomes. This article discusses and critiques five reviews of current research on future time perspective. Key questions addressed are when do individuals begin to articulate a future, how far into the future does this…

Projecting future air pollution-related mortality under a changing climate: progress, uncertainties and research needs.

Science.gov (United States)

Madaniyazi, Lina; Guo, Yuming; Yu, Weiwei; Tong, Shilu

2015-02-01

Climate change may affect mortality associated with air pollutants, especially for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3). Projection studies of such kind involve complicated modelling approaches with uncertainties. We conducted a systematic review of researches and methods for projecting future PM2.5-/O3-related mortality to identify the uncertainties and optimal approaches for handling uncertainty. A literature search was conducted in October 2013, using the electronic databases: PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 to September 2013. Fifteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most studies reported that an increase of climate change-induced PM2.5 and O3 may result in an increase in mortality. However, little research has been conducted in developing countries with high emissions and dense populations. Additionally, health effects induced by PM2.5 may dominate compared to those caused by O3, but projection studies of PM2.5-related mortality are fewer than those of O3-related mortality. There is a considerable variation in approaches of scenario-based projection researches, which makes it difficult to compare results. Multiple scenarios, models and downscaling methods have been used to reduce uncertainties. However, few studies have discussed what the main source of uncertainties is and which uncertainty could be most effectively reduced. Projecting air pollution-related mortality requires a systematic consideration of assumptions and uncertainties, which will significantly aid policymakers in efforts to manage potential impacts of PM2.5 and O3 on mortality in the context of climate change. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Millennium Villages Project: a retrospective, observational, endline evaluation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shira Mitchell, PhD

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Summary: Background: The Millennium Villages Project (MVP was a 10 year, multisector, rural development project, initiated in 2005, operating across ten sites in ten sub-Saharan African countries to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs. In this study, we aimed to estimate the project's impact, target attainment, and on-site spending. Methods: In this endline evaluation of the MVP, we retrospectively selected comparison villages that best matched the project villages on possible confounding variables. Cross-sectional survey data on 40 outcomes of interest were collected from both the project and the comparison villages in 2015. Using these data, as well as on-site spending data collected during the project, we estimated project impacts as differences in outcomes between the project and comparison villages; target attainment as differences between project outcomes and prespecified targets; and on-site spending as expenditures reported by communities, donors, governments, and the project. Spending data were not collected in the comparison villages. Findings: Averaged across the ten project sites, we found that impact estimates for 30 of 40 outcomes were significant (95% uncertainty intervals [UIs] for these outcomes excluded zero and favoured the project villages. In particular, substantial effects were seen in agriculture and health, in which some outcomes were roughly one SD better in the project villages than in the comparison villages. The project was estimated to have no significant impact on the consumption-based measures of poverty, but a significant favourable impact on an index of asset ownership. Impacts on nutrition and education outcomes were often inconclusive (95% UIs included zero. Averaging across outcomes within categories, the project had significant favourable impacts on agriculture, nutrition, education, child health, maternal health, HIV and malaria, and water and sanitation. A third of the targets were met in the

submitter Status of the Demonstrator Magnets for the EuCARD-2 Future Magnets Project

CERN Document Server

Kirby, G; Badel, A; Bajko, M; Ballarino, A; Bottura, L; Dhalle, M; Durante, M; Fazilleau, P; Fleiter, J; Goldacker, W; Haro, E; Himbele, J; Kario, A; Langeslag, S; Lorin, C; Murtzomaki, J; van Nugteren, J; de Rijk, G; Salmi, T; Senatore, C; Stenvall, A; Tixador, P; Usoskin, A; Volpini, G; Yang, Y; Zangenberg, N

2016-01-01

EuCARD-2 is a project partly supported by FP7 European Commission aiming at exploring accelerator magnet technology for 20-T dipole operating field. The EuCARD-2 collaboration is liaising with similar programs for high-field magnets in the U.S. and Japan. EuCARD-2 focuses, through the work package 10 “future magnets,” on the development of a 10-kA-class superconducting high-current-density cable suitable for accelerator magnets, for a 5-T stand-alone dipole of 40-mm bore and about 1-m length. After stand-alone testing, the magnet will be inserted in a large bore background dipole, 10-18 T. This paper reports on the design and development of models, which are called Feather0, wound with REBCO Roebel cable. Based on aligned block design to take advantage of the anisotropy of the REBCO tapes, Feather0 is a precursor of Feather2, which should reach the project goals in 2016. Feather0 is planned to be tested both in stand alone and as an insert mounted in the CERN Fresca facility providing 10-T background fiel...

Projecting future solid waste management requirements on the Hanford Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shaver, S.R.; Stiles, D.L.; Holter, G.M.; Anderson, B.C.

1990-09-01

The problem of treating and disposing of hazardous transuranic (TRU), low-level radioactive, and mixed waste has become a major concern of the public and the government. At the US Department of Energy's Hanford Site in Washington state, the problem is compounded by the need to characterize, retrieve, and treat the solid waste that was generated and stored for retrieval during the past 20 years. This paper discusses the development and application of a Solid Waste Projection Model that uses forecast volumes and characteristics of existing and future solid waste to address the treatment, storage, and disposal requirements at Hanford. The model uses a data-driven, object-oriented approach to assess the storage and treatment throughout requirements for each operation for each of the distinct waste classes and the accompanying cost of the storage and treatment operations. By defining the elements of each alternative for the total waste management system, the same database can be used for numerous analyses performed at different levels of detail. This approach also helps a variety of users with widely varying information requirements to use the model and helps achieve the high degree of flexibility needed to cope with changing regulations and evolving treatment and disposal technologies. 2 figs

Projected near-future CO2 levels increase activity and alter defensive behaviours in the tropical squid Idiosepius pygmaeus

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Blake L. Spady

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Carbon dioxide (CO2 levels projected to occur in the oceans by the end of this century cause a range of behavioural effects in fish, but whether other highly active marine organisms, such as cephalopods, are similarly affected is unknown. We tested the effects of projected future CO2 levels (626 and 956 µatm on the behaviour of male two-toned pygmy squid, Idiosepius pygmaeus. Exposure to elevated CO2 increased the number of active individuals by 19–25% and increased movement (number of line-crosses by nearly 3 times compared to squid at present-day CO2. Squid vigilance and defensive behaviours were also altered by elevated CO2 with >80% of individuals choosing jet escape responses over defensive arm postures in response to a visual startle stimulus, compared with 50% choosing jet escape responses at control CO2. In addition, more escape responses were chosen over threat behaviours in body pattern displays at elevated CO2 and individuals were more than twice as likely to use ink as a defence strategy at 956 µatm CO2, compared with controls. Increased activity could lead to adverse effects on energy budgets as well as increasing visibility to predators. A tendency to respond to a stimulus with escape behaviours could increase survival, but may also be energetically costly and could potentially lead to more chases by predators compared with individuals that use defensive postures. These results demonstrate that projected future ocean acidification affects the behaviours of a tropical squid species.

Success factors for international HTA projects: evaluating EUnetHTA Joint Action as an exemplar.

Science.gov (United States)

Guegan, Eleanor Woodford; Cook, Andrew

2014-11-01

Evaluation is essential for the management of international projects or networks in health technology assessment (HTA). It extends beyond the normal process of project management by incorporating qualitative dimensions and provides information about a project's effectiveness and achievements. This article aimed to identify the factors that are important for the success of international HTA projects. The European network for Health Technology Assessment Joint Action (EUnetHTA JA) is presented as an exemplar. METHODS for the evaluation of international HTA projects include interviews, focus groups, questionnaires, observations and documentary review, and the key points of these approaches have been summarized. The impact and effectiveness of the EUnetHTA JA was evaluated by questionnaires of project participants and external stakeholders, and by documentary review. The response rate for the three annual questionnaires sent to project participants ranged from 86 percent to 88 percent and for external stakeholders ranged from 65 percent to 88 percent. Key factors for project success included production of deliverables according to the workplan, achievement of objectives, added value generated, effective communication, involvement of external stakeholders, workstream management and progress from the preceding EUnetHTA 2006-2008 project. The experience of this project can inform the evaluation of future international HTA collaborations, such as the EUnetHTA 2nd Joint Action and HTAsiaLink. A high response rate was achieved to the self-completion questionnaires and the strategy followed is recommended for evaluation of international HTA projects. Future assessments of international HTA projects should strive to measure outcomes and impact, not just outputs and process.

Designing domestic buildings for future summers: Attitudes and opinions of building professionals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gul, Mehreen S.; Menzies, Gillian F.

2012-01-01

A changing climate will produce summertime overheating where conventional domestic building design approaches do not adequately address future warming risk. This risk cannot be fully identified and avoided unless future climate information and building related adaptation measures are considered. The Low Carbon Futures project is developing a tool that uses UKCP09 climate projections input to predict dwelling overheating risks. To enhance the usefulness of this tool for the building industry, and to better understand current building design processes, interviews were conducted with building professionals, allowing industry preferences for the tool to be sought and to provide clearer indications of proposed outcomes. This paper examines results from a questionnaire, focus groups and semi-structured interviews with building industry professionals. The research shows that the housing industry maintains adherence to traditional designing methods where overheating, whether current or future, is not considered a serious concern. No design stage detailed overheating assessments are currently undertaken to reduce the UK's increased room air-conditioner sales, despite drives for low energy/zero carbon homes. The collated feedback will help tailor the tool and its eventual outputs, with this paper attempting to converge on a set of recommendations for low carbon dwelling design with reduced overheating risk. - Highlights: ► Interviews to gauge attitudes of building professionals towards future warming. ► Client requirements, capital costs and regulations take priority in typical practice. ► No actions are currently taken to prevent overheating risks in the housing sector. ► Overheating risks in housing can be tackled by the use of dynamic modelling. ► The LCF tool further helps to adapt a dwelling to reduce future overheating risks.

Working with Climate Projections to Estimate Disease Burden: Perspectives from Public Health

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kathryn C. Conlon

2016-08-01

Full Text Available There is interest among agencies and public health practitioners in the United States (USA to estimate the future burden of climate-related health outcomes. Calculating disease burden projections can be especially daunting, given the complexities of climate modeling and the multiple pathways by which climate influences public health. Interdisciplinary coordination between public health practitioners and climate scientists is necessary for scientifically derived estimates. We describe a unique partnership of state and regional climate scientists and public health practitioners assembled by the Florida Building Resilience Against Climate Effects (BRACE program. We provide a background on climate modeling and projections that has been developed specifically for public health practitioners, describe methodologies for combining climate and health data to project disease burden, and demonstrate three examples of this process used in Florida.

Elsevier's Article of the Future enhancing the user experience and integrating data through applications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

IJsbrand Jan Aalbersberg

2012-03-01

Full Text Available In a world where our levels of knowledge advance rapidly, so should the communication of research. In partnership with the world's research community, Elsevier investigates the future of research communication with the ‘Article of the Future’. An intuitive online article format, this proposes the next generation in research publishing, with a simple-to-read online layout and enriched content, allowing true immersion in the subject matter. In addition, through the use of SciVerse® Applications, the Article of the Future connects the formal scientific record with associated external data sets and other contextual information that is available elsewhere on the web. In this article, we present the outcomes of the second phase of the Article of the Future project, with an emphasis on its final designs, user feedback collected, and how the Article of the Future handles the rising need of connecting the formal scientific record with associated discipline-specific data sets.

Finding Futures: A Spatio-Visual Experiment In Participatory Engagement

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Davies, Sarah Rachael; Selin, Cynthia; Gano, Gretchen

2013-01-01

The Finding Futures Project explores innovative ways of deliberating the future of cities through an emphasis on embodied spatio-visual engagement with urban landscapes. The first instantiation of the project - which took place in Lisbon in 2011 - is reported through a discussion of the project's...

Future projections of synoptic weather types over the Arabian Peninsula during the twenty-first century using an ensemble of CMIP5 models

KAUST Repository

El Kenawy, Ahmed M.; McCabe, Matthew

2016-01-01

An assessment of future change in synoptic conditions over the Arabian Peninsula throughout the twenty-first century was performed using 20 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) database. We employed the mean

Behind the scenes of GS: Mapping the future of CERN

CERN Multimedia

Sophie Louise Hetherton

2014-01-01

Focus on the Future Accelerator Studies (FAS) section at CERN who carry out the civil engineering studies for the Laboratory’s future scientific facilities.   The Future Accelerator Studies (FAS) section co-ordinates the civil engineering and infrastructure studies for large-scale future physics projects. These include projects due to complete in a couple of years such as AWAKE, but also projects planned for ten years’ time such as the High Luminosity LHC (HL-LHC) or even longer term projects such as the Future Circular Collider (FCC), for which approval is still pending. “CERN needs to be able to study the feasibility and assess the risks of future projects, even though they are not all fully approved,” explains John Osborne, Head of the FAS section, which also includes two fellows and one technical student. “Our small team works closely with other groups across CERN and with external companies to provide studies from a civil engineering poin...

Leader Narcissism and Outcomes in Organizations: A Review at Multiple Levels of Analysis and Implications for Future Research

Science.gov (United States)

Braun, Susanne

2017-01-01

Narcissists often pursue leadership and are selected for leadership positions by others. At the same time, they act in their own best interest, putting the needs and interests of others at risk. While theoretical arguments clearly link narcissism and leadership, the question whether leader narcissism is good or bad for organizations and their members remains unanswered. Narcissism seems to have two sides, a bright and a dark one. This systematic literature review seeks to contribute to the ongoing academic discussion about the positive or negative impact of leader narcissism in organizations. Forty-five original research articles were categorized according to outcomes at three levels of analysis: the dyadic level (focusing on leader-follower relationships), the team level (focusing on work teams and small groups), and the organizational level. On this basis, we first summarized the current state of knowledge about the impact that leader narcissism has on outcomes at different levels of analysis. Next, we revealed similarities and contradictions between research findings within and across levels of analysis, highlighting persistent inconsistencies concerning the question whether leader narcissism has positive or negative consequences. Finally, we outlined theoretical and methodological implications for future studies of leader narcissism. This multi-level perspective ascertains a new, systematic view of leader narcissism and its consequences for organizations and their stakeholders. The article demonstrates the need for future research in the field of leader narcissism and opens up new avenues for inquiry. PMID:28579967

Leader Narcissism and Outcomes in Organizations: A Review at Multiple Levels of Analysis and Implications for Future Research.

Science.gov (United States)

Braun, Susanne

2017-01-01

Narcissists often pursue leadership and are selected for leadership positions by others. At the same time, they act in their own best interest, putting the needs and interests of others at risk. While theoretical arguments clearly link narcissism and leadership, the question whether leader narcissism is good or bad for organizations and their members remains unanswered. Narcissism seems to have two sides, a bright and a dark one. This systematic literature review seeks to contribute to the ongoing academic discussion about the positive or negative impact of leader narcissism in organizations. Forty-five original research articles were categorized according to outcomes at three levels of analysis: the dyadic level (focusing on leader-follower relationships), the team level (focusing on work teams and small groups), and the organizational level. On this basis, we first summarized the current state of knowledge about the impact that leader narcissism has on outcomes at different levels of analysis. Next, we revealed similarities and contradictions between research findings within and across levels of analysis, highlighting persistent inconsistencies concerning the question whether leader narcissism has positive or negative consequences. Finally, we outlined theoretical and methodological implications for future studies of leader narcissism. This multi-level perspective ascertains a new, systematic view of leader narcissism and its consequences for organizations and their stakeholders. The article demonstrates the need for future research in the field of leader narcissism and opens up new avenues for inquiry.

Leader Narcissism and Outcomes in Organizations: A Review at Multiple Levels of Analysis and Implications for Future Research

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Susanne Braun

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Narcissists often pursue leadership and are selected for leadership positions by others. At the same time, they act in their own best interest, putting the needs and interests of others at risk. While theoretical arguments clearly link narcissism and leadership, the question whether leader narcissism is good or bad for organizations and their members remains unanswered. Narcissism seems to have two sides, a bright and a dark one. This systematic literature review seeks to contribute to the ongoing academic discussion about the positive or negative impact of leader narcissism in organizations. Forty-five original research articles were categorized according to outcomes at three levels of analysis: the dyadic level (focusing on leader-follower relationships, the team level (focusing on work teams and small groups, and the organizational level. On this basis, we first summarized the current state of knowledge about the impact that leader narcissism has on outcomes at different levels of analysis. Next, we revealed similarities and contradictions between research findings within and across levels of analysis, highlighting persistent inconsistencies concerning the question whether leader narcissism has positive or negative consequences. Finally, we outlined theoretical and methodological implications for future studies of leader narcissism. This multi-level perspective ascertains a new, systematic view of leader narcissism and its consequences for organizations and their stakeholders. The article demonstrates the need for future research in the field of leader narcissism and opens up new avenues for inquiry.

Future projections of the climate and surface mass balance of Svalbard with the regional climate model MAR

Science.gov (United States)

Lang, C.; Fettweis, X.; Erpicum, M.

2015-01-01

We have performed future projections of the climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of Svalbard with the MAR regional climate model forced by the MIROC5 global model, following the RCP8.5 scenario at a spatial resolution of 10 km. MAR predicts a similar evolution of increasing surface melt everywhere in Svalbard followed by a sudden acceleration of the melt around 2050, with a larger melt increase in the south compared to the north of the archipelago and the ice caps. This melt acceleration around 2050 is mainly driven by the albedo-melt feedback associated with the expansion of the ablation/bare ice zone. This effect is dampened in part as the solar radiation itself is projected to decrease due to cloudiness increase. The near-surface temperature is projected to increase more in winter than in summer as the temperature is already close to 0 °C in summer. The model also projects a strong winter west-to-east temperature gradient, related to the large decrease of sea ice cover around Svalbard. At the end of the century (2070-2099 mean), SMB is projected to be negative over the entire Svalbard and, by 2085, all glaciated regions of Svalbard are predicted to undergo net ablation, meaning that, under the RCP8.5 scenario, all the glaciers and ice caps are predicted to start their irreversible retreat before the end of the 21st century.

Software Support for the Classical, Contemporary and Future Project Management

OpenAIRE

Jakov Crnkovic; Peter Ross; Sanjay Desai

2006-01-01

The volume and complexity of Project Management (PM) raises many questions for managers. What exactly are we managing? People? Performance? Efficiency? Effectiveness? Cost? Time? At what levels do projects become challenging and worthy of significant management attention? Can some projects be left on auto-pilot? Must others be managed more aggressively? What metrics are useful in Project Management? How can they be integrated with normal performance metrics in the organization? How can metric...

Future of Finnish energy business - scenarios and strategies. Summary report of the SALKKU research project; Suomalainen tulevaisuuden energialiiketoiminta - skenaariot ja strategiat. SALKKU-hankkeen yhteenvetoraportti

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Koljonen, T.; Koreneff, G.; Simila, L. [and others

2012-05-15

This report gives a summary of the results of the research project 'Future of Finnish energy business - scenarios and strategies' (SALKKU). The SALKKU research was carried out as a joint research project of VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT) and MTT Agrifood Research Finland (MTT). The coordinating partner was VTT. The objective of the project was to assess the future energy business and factors contributing to it up to year 2050. The research in SALKKU is partly a continuation of the work done in the research project 'SEKKI - The Competitiveness of Finnish Energy Industry under Developing Climate Policy', which was a part of the ClimBus-programme of Tekes, the Finnish Funding Agency for Technology, and the results of which have been published in VTT's and MTT's report series in 2009. The focus in SALKKU project was on assessing future energy businesses by analysing the development of energy demands and supplies as well as energy markets under the influence of future energy and climate policies, depleting fossil resources, growing population, and the economic development. The demand for energy was studied on a global, an EU, and especially on an Asian level. On the supply side the focus was both on fossil reserves and resources and on the technical and the techno-economical potential of field bioenergy. There are vast uncertainties concerning the growth in food demand and changing eating habits on one hand, and the demand for bioenergy on the other hand. The EnTech project by Etlatieto, a subsidiary of ETLA, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy, was carried out as a parallel project to SALKKU. The EnTech project assessed the development of energy technology export of the Finnish energy industry. One part of the work at VTT was to analyse the impacts of future climate policies on greenhouse gas emissions, on the development of the energy systems, and on clean energy investments. The area of focus was on long term

The Millennium Villages Project: a retrospective, observational, endline evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Mitchell, Shira; Gelman, Andrew; Ross, Rebecca; Chen, Joyce; Bari, Sehrish; Huynh, Uyen Kim; Harris, Matthew W; Sachs, Sonia Ehrlich; Stuart, Elizabeth A; Feller, Avi; Makela, Susanna; Zaslavsky, Alan M; McClellan, Lucy; Ohemeng-Dapaah, Seth; Namakula, Patricia; Palm, Cheryl A; Sachs, Jeffrey D

2018-05-01

The Millennium Villages Project (MVP) was a 10 year, multisector, rural development project, initiated in 2005, operating across ten sites in ten sub-Saharan African countries to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). In this study, we aimed to estimate the project's impact, target attainment, and on-site spending. In this endline evaluation of the MVP, we retrospectively selected comparison villages that best matched the project villages on possible confounding variables. Cross-sectional survey data on 40 outcomes of interest were collected from both the project and the comparison villages in 2015. Using these data, as well as on-site spending data collected during the project, we estimated project impacts as differences in outcomes between the project and comparison villages; target attainment as differences between project outcomes and prespecified targets; and on-site spending as expenditures reported by communities, donors, governments, and the project. Spending data were not collected in the comparison villages. Averaged across the ten project sites, we found that impact estimates for 30 of 40 outcomes were significant (95% uncertainty intervals [UIs] for these outcomes excluded zero) and favoured the project villages. In particular, substantial effects were seen in agriculture and health, in which some outcomes were roughly one SD better in the project villages than in the comparison villages. The project was estimated to have no significant impact on the consumption-based measures of poverty, but a significant favourable impact on an index of asset ownership. Impacts on nutrition and education outcomes were often inconclusive (95% UIs included zero). Averaging across outcomes within categories, the project had significant favourable impacts on agriculture, nutrition, education, child health, maternal health, HIV and malaria, and water and sanitation. A third of the targets were met in the project sites. Total on-site spending decreased from US$132

Not my future? Core values and the neural representation of future events.

Science.gov (United States)

Brosch, Tobias; Stussi, Yoann; Desrichard, Olivier; Sander, David

2018-06-01

Individuals with pronounced self-transcendence values have been shown to put greater weight on the long-term consequences of their actions when making decisions. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we investigated the neural mechanisms underlying the evaluation of events occurring several decades in the future as well as the role of core values in these processes. Thirty-six participants viewed a series of events, consisting of potential consequences of climate change, which could occur in the near future (around 2030), and thus would be experienced by the participants themselves, or in the far future (around 2080). We observed increased activation in anterior VMPFC (BA11), a region involved in encoding the personal significance of future events, when participants were envisioning far future events, demonstrating for the first time that the role of the VMPFC in future projection extends to the time scale of decades. Importantly, this activation increase was observed only in participants with pronounced self-transcendence values measured by self-report questionnaire, as shown by a statistically significant interaction of temporal distance and value structure. These findings suggest that future projection mechanisms are modulated by self-transcendence values to allow for a more extensive simulation of far future events. Consistent with this, these participants reported similar concern ratings for near and far future events, whereas participants with pronounced self-enhancement values were more concerned about near future events. Our findings provide a neural substrate for the tendency of individuals with pronounced self-transcendence values to consider the long-term consequences of their actions.

Future projections of the Greenland ice sheet energy balance driving the surface melt

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Franco

2013-01-01

Full Text Available In this study, simulations at 25 km resolution are performed over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS throughout the 20th and 21st centuries, using the regional climate model MAR forced by four RCP scenarios from three CMIP5 global circulation models (GCMs, in order to investigate the projected changes of the surface energy balance (SEB components driving the surface melt. Analysis of 2000–2100 melt anomalies compared to melt results over 1980–1999 reveals an exponential relationship of the GrIS surface melt rate simulated by MAR to the near-surface air temperature (TAS anomalies, mainly due to the surface albedo positive feedback associated with the extension of bare ice areas in summer. On the GrIS margins, the future melt anomalies are preferentially driven by stronger sensible heat fluxes, induced by enhanced warm air advection over the ice sheet. Over the central dry snow zone, the surface albedo positive feedback induced by the increase in summer melt exceeds the negative feedback of heavier snowfall for TAS anomalies higher than 4 °C. In addition to the incoming longwave flux increase associated with the atmosphere warming, GCM-forced MAR simulations project an increase of the cloud cover decreasing the ratio of the incoming shortwave versus longwave radiation and dampening the albedo feedback. However, it should be noted that this trend in the cloud cover is contrary to that simulated by ERA-Interim–forced MAR for recent climate conditions, where the observed melt increase since the 1990s seems mainly to be a consequence of more anticyclonic atmospheric conditions. Finally, no significant change is projected in the length of the melt season, which highlights the importance of solar radiation absorbed by the ice sheet surface in the melt SEB.

Comparing reconstructed past variations and future projections of the Baltic Sea ecosystem—first results from multi-model ensemble simulations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Meier, H E Markus; Andersson, Helén C; Arheimer, Berit

2012-01-01

Multi-model ensemble simulations for the marine biogeochemistry and food web of the Baltic Sea were performed for the period 1850–2098, and projected changes in the future climate were compared with the past climate environment. For the past period 1850–2006, atmospheric, hydrological and nutrient...... forcings were reconstructed, based on historical measurements. For the future period 1961–2098, scenario simulations were driven by regionalized global general circulation model (GCM) data and forced by various future greenhouse gas emission and air- and riverborne nutrient load scenarios (ranging from...... a pessimistic ‘business-as-usual’ to the most optimistic case). To estimate uncertainties, different models for the various parts of the Earth system were applied. Assuming the IPCC greenhouse gas emission scenarios A1B or A2, we found that water temperatures at the end of this century may be higher...

One-year effects of Project EX: A smoking intervention pilot program with Spanish adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Espada, José P; Gonzálvez, María T; Orgilés, Mireia; Sussman, Steve

2017-07-01

Adolescent smoking is a major public health problem, which has led to the development of cessation programs such as Project EX. However, there is no evidence for the long-term efficacy of cessation among Spanish adolescents. This study provides a 1-year follow-up evaluation of the Project EX tobacco use cessation program among 211 smokers. The intent-to-treat 30-day smoking quit rate for the program group was 7.81 percent ( p = .04), whereas no smokers quit in the control group ( p = .02). The intervention had a significant influence on future smoking expectation, intention, motivation to quit, and overall level of 30-day smoking. Long-term outcomes of the Project EX clinic-based program are promising for adolescent smokers in Spain.

Development of integrated scenarios to assess future conditions of aquatic ecosystems under water scarcity in the Mediterranean - perspectives from the GLOBAQUA project

Science.gov (United States)

Huber-Garcia, Verena; Akinsete, Ebun; Gampe, David; Ker Rault, Philippe; Kok, Kasper; Koundouri, Phoebe; Luttik, Joke; Nikulin, Grigory; Pistocchi, Alberto; Souliotis, Ioannis; Ludwig, Ralf

2017-04-01

Water and water-related services are major components of the human wellbeing, and as such are major factors of socio-economic development; yet freshwater systems are under threat by a variety of stressors (organic and inorganic pollution, geomorphological alterations, land cover change, water abstraction, invasive species and pathogens). Water scarcity is most commonly associated with inappropriate water management and resulting river flow reductions. It has become one of the most important drivers of change in freshwater ecosystems. Conjoint occurrence of a myriad of stressors (chemical, geomorphological, biological) under water scarcity will produce novel and unfamiliar synergies and most likely very pronounced effects. Stressors are hierarchically arranged in terms of intensity, frequency and scale, and their effects can be predicted to be from transient to irreversible. Most ecosystems are simulta¬neously exposed to multiple-stress situations. Within the scope of the GLOBAQUA project the effects of multiple stressors on aquatic ecosystems in selected river basins across Europe with a focus on areas suffering from water scarcity are analyzed. In addition, management strategies are improved and adapted with the aim of inhibiting adverse effects on aquatic ecosystems and ensuring the supply with water for all purposes in the study areas also in the future. Policy relevant implications will be given to ensure a best possible status of these aquatic ecosystems also under future conditions. In this context, land use and land cover as well as the meteorological conditions can be seen as two main stressors for the quality and quantity of surface and subsurface water. These factors considerably affect the use and availability of water, especially in regions which already experience water scarcity. If the problem is not addressed correctly, negative effects on biodiversity, water supply as well as important economic consequences may arise. In Europe, many fresh water

Scaffolding Project-Based Learning with the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK[R])

Science.gov (United States)

van Rooij, Shahron Williams

2009-01-01

This paper reports the results of a study of the extent to which processes and procedures from the discipline of project management can scaffold online project-based learning in a graduate-level instructional technology course, by facilitating intra-team interaction, enhancing project outcomes and promoting a positive project team experience. With…

Future of family support: Projected living arrangements and income sources of older people in Hong Kong up to 2030.

Science.gov (United States)

Ng, Kok-Hoe

2016-06-01

The study aims to project future trends in living arrangements and access to children's cash contributions and market income sources among older people in Hong Kong. A cell-based model was constructed by combining available population projections, labour force projections, an extrapolation of the historical trend in living arrangements based on national survey datasets and a regression model on income sources. Under certain assumptions, the proportion of older people living with their children may decline from 59 to 48% during 2006-2030. Although access to market income sources may improve slightly, up to 20% of older people may have no access to either children's financial support or market income sources, and will not live with their children by 2030. Family support is expected to contract in the next two decades. Public pensions should be expanded to protect financially vulnerable older people. © 2015 AJA Inc.

Creating a Novel Video Vignette Stroke Preparedness Outcome Measure Using a Community-Based Participatory Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Skolarus, Lesli E; Murphy, Jillian B; Dome, Mackenzie; Zimmerman, Marc A; Bailey, Sarah; Fowlkes, Sophronia; Morgenstern, Lewis B

2015-07-01

Evaluating the efficacy of behavioral interventions for rare outcomes is a challenge. One such topic is stroke preparedness, defined as inteventions to increase stroke symptom recognition and behavioral intent to call 911. Current stroke preparedness intermediate outcome measures are centered on written vignettes or open-ended questions and have been shown to poorly reflect actual behavior. Given that stroke identification and action requires aural and visual processing, video vignettes may improve on current measures. This article discusses an approach for creating a novel stroke preparedness video vignette intermediate outcome measure within a community-based participatory research partnership. A total of 20 video vignettes were filmed of which 13 were unambiguous (stroke or not stroke) as determined by stroke experts and had test discrimination among community participants. Acceptable reliability, high satisfaction, and cultural relevance were found among the 14 community respondents. A community-based participatory approach was effective in creating a video vignette intermediate outcome. Future projects should consider obtaining expert and community feedback prior to filming all the video vignettes to improve the proportion of vignettes that are usable. While content validity and preliminary reliability were established, future studies are needed to confirm the reliability and establish construct validity. © 2014 Society for Public Health Education.

Undergraduate nursing students' perceptions of service-learning through a school-based community project.

Science.gov (United States)

Bassi, Sherry

2011-01-01

Service-learning (SL) is an experiential teaching method that combines instruction with community service, with the aim of enriching students' academic learning, interpersonal skills and sense of responsibility while making meaningful contributions to the community. However, measuring outcomes of service-learning projects is difficult. This article reports on the perceptions of 18 third-year undergraduate nursing students who took part in a pilot service-learning project targeting tobacco use in a local elementary school. Faculty members evaluated the program's outcomes by engaging students in structured reflection on the program about its relevance to their future careers as practicing professionals, especially in community-based settings. The students' perceptions were elicited through three sets of reflective assignments following the project. Findings from the reflective assignments suggest that the pilot program was successful in enhancing the students' academic, social, and personal development while building a partnership between the school of nursing and key players in the community, including school-based nurses, teachers, administrators, families, and community leaders. The author suggests that service-learning projects can help nursing students accomplish key developmental tasks of the college years (such as building their competence, autonomy, and integrity), while helping impart the skills and values they will need as they graduate and seek professional nursing roles.

Present and projected future mean radiant temperature for three European cities

Science.gov (United States)

Thorsson, Sofia; Rayner, David; Lindberg, Fredrik; Monteiro, Ana; Katzschner, Lutz; Lau, Kevin Ka-Lun; Campe, Sabrina; Katzschner, Antje; Konarska, Janina; Onomura, Shiho; Velho, Sara; Holmer, Björn

2017-09-01

Present-day and projected future changes in mean radiant temperature, T mrt in one northern, one mid-, and one southern European city (represented by Gothenburg, Frankfurt, and Porto), are presented, and the concept of hot spots is adopted. Air temperature, T a , increased in all cities by 2100, but changes in solar radiation due to changes in cloudiness counterbalanced or exacerbated the effects on T mrt. The number of days with high T mrt in Gothenburg was relatively unchanged at the end of the century (+1 day), whereas it more than doubled in Frankfurt and tripled in Porto. The use of street trees to reduce daytime radiant heat load was analyzed using hot spots to identify where trees could be most beneficial. Hot spots, although varying in intensity and frequency, were generally confined to near sunlit southeast-southwest facing walls, in northeast corner of courtyards, and in open spaces in all three cities. By adding trees in these spaces, the radiant heat load can be reduced, especially in spaces with no or few trees. A set of design principles for reducing the radiant heat load is outlined based on these findings and existing literature.

Plastic surgery: quo vadis? Current trends and future projections of aesthetic plastic surgical procedures in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Broer, P Niclas; Levine, Steven M; Juran, Sabrina

2014-03-01

The objective of this article was to evaluate past and current trends regarding aesthetic operations in the United States and to project future changes regarding such procedures. Cosmetic surgery statistics from the American Society for Aesthetic Plastic Surgery from 1997 to 2012 were analyzed by sex, age, and ethnic group. Then, using population projections from the U.S. Census Bureau based on the 2010 census, two projection scenarios of the expected number of aesthetic plastic surgery procedures were generated. The scenarios included the presumed occurrence and nonoccurrence of a recession like that which occurred in 2007. Aesthetic procedures are expected to grow from 1,688,694 in 2012 to 3,847,929 by 2030, representing an average annual growth rate of 7.1 percent. Should another recession of similar degree to the one in 2007 occur, procedures would increase to only 2,086,994, displaying an average annual growth percentage rate of 1.3 percent. Because the age distribution of the patient population will change, preferences for specific procedures according to age influence-and thus are reflected in-future demand for those procedures. Furthermore, the ethnic profile of patients will change significantly, with 32 percent of all procedures being performed on patients other than Caucasians by 2030. Demand for aesthetic plastic surgical procedures is expected to continue to grow, while depending on the economic performance at the macro level and changing demographic dynamics of the U.S. population. Considering all investigated factors and trends among all patients, the most commonly requested procedures by 2030 are likely to be (1) breast augmentations, (2) lipoplasties, and (3) blepharoplasties.

Adaptively Addressing Uncertainty in Estuarine and Near Coastal Restoration Projects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Thom, Ronald M.; Williams, Greg D.; Borde, Amy B.; Southard, John A.; Sargeant, Susan L.; Woodruff, Dana L.; Laufle, Jeffrey C.; Glasoe, Stuart

2005-03-01

Restoration projects have an uncertain outcome because of a lack of information about current site conditions, historical disturbance levels, effects of landscape alterations on site development, unpredictable trajectories or patterns of ecosystem structural development, and many other factors. A poor understanding of the factors that control the development and dynamics of a system, such as hydrology, salinity, wave energies, can also lead to an unintended outcome. Finally, lack of experience in restoring certain types of systems (e.g., rare or very fragile habitats) or systems in highly modified situations (e.g., highly urbanized estuaries) makes project outcomes uncertain. Because of these uncertainties, project costs can rise dramatically in an attempt to come closer to project goals. All of the potential sources of error can be addressed to a certain degree through adaptive management. The first step is admitting that these uncertainties can exist, and addressing as many of the uncertainties with planning and directed research prior to implementing the project. The second step is to evaluate uncertainties through hypothesis-driven experiments during project implementation. The third step is to use the monitoring program to evaluate and adjust the project as needed to improve the probability of the project to reach is goal. The fourth and final step is to use the information gained in the project to improve future projects. A framework that includes a clear goal statement, a conceptual model, and an evaluation framework can help in this adaptive restoration process. Projects and programs vary in their application of adaptive management in restoration, and it is very difficult to be highly prescriptive in applying adaptive management to projects that necessarily vary widely in scope, goal, ecosystem characteristics, and uncertainties. Very large ecosystem restoration programs in the Mississippi River delta (Coastal Wetlands Planning, Protection, and Restoration

An educational approach to improve outcomes in acute kidney injury (AKI): report of a quality improvement project.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Gang; Baines, Richard; Westacott, Rachel; Selby, Nick; Carr, Susan

2014-03-20

To assess the impact of a quality improvement project that used a multifaceted educational intervention on how to improve clinician's knowledge, confidence and awareness of acute kidney injury (AKI). 2 large acute teaching hospitals in England, serving a combined population of over 1.5 million people. All secondary care clinicians working in the clinical areas were targeted, with a specific focus on clinicians working in acute admission areas. A multifaceted educational intervention consisting of traditional didactic lectures, case-based teaching in small groups and an interactive web-based learning resource. We assessed clinicians' knowledge of AKI and their self-reported clinical behaviour using an interactive questionnaire before and after the educational intervention. Secondary outcome measures included clinical audit of patient notes before and after the intervention. 26% of clinicians reported that they were aware of local AKI guidelines in the preintervention questionnaire compared to 64% in the follow-up questionnaire (χ²=60.2, pquality improvement project utilising a multifaceted educational intervention improved awareness of AKI as demonstrated by changes in the clinician's self-reported management of patients with AKI. Elements of the project have been sustained beyond the project period, and demonstrate the power of quality improvement projects to help initiate changes in practice. Our findings are limited by confounding factors and highlight the need to carry out formal randomised studies to determine the impact of educational initiatives in the clinical setting.

Projection of future climate changes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boucher, Olivier; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Vial, Jessica; Brun, Eric; Cattiaux, Julien; Chauvin, Fabrice; Salas y Melia, David; Voldoire, Aurore; Bopp, Laurent; Braconnot, Pascale; Ciais, Philippe; Yiou, Pascal; Guilyardi, Eric; Mignot, Juliette; Guivarch, Celine

2015-01-01

Climate models provide the opportunity to anticipate how the climate system may change due to anthropogenic activities during the 21. century. Studies are based on numerical simulations that explore the evolution of the mean climate and its variability according to different socio-economic scenarios. We present a selection of results from phase 5 of the Climate model intercomparison project (CMIP5) with an illustrative focus on the two French models that participated to this exercise. We describe the effects of human perturbations upon surface temperature, precipitation, the cryo-sphere, but also extreme weather events and the carbon cycle. Results show a number of robust features, on the amplitude and geographical patterns of the expected changes and on the processes at play in these changes. They also show the limitations of such a prospective exercise and persistent uncertainties on some key aspects. (authors)

Future planning: default network activity couples with frontoparietal control network and reward-processing regions during process and outcome simulations.

Science.gov (United States)

Gerlach, Kathy D; Spreng, R Nathan; Madore, Kevin P; Schacter, Daniel L

2014-12-01

We spend much of our daily lives imagining how we can reach future goals and what will happen when we attain them. Despite the prevalence of such goal-directed simulations, neuroimaging studies on planning have mainly focused on executive processes in the frontal lobe. This experiment examined the neural basis of process simulations, during which participants imagined themselves going through steps toward attaining a goal, and outcome simulations, during which participants imagined events they associated with achieving a goal. In the scanner, participants engaged in these simulation tasks and an odd/even control task. We hypothesized that process simulations would recruit default and frontoparietal control network regions, and that outcome simulations, which allow us to anticipate the affective consequences of achieving goals, would recruit default and reward-processing regions. Our analysis of brain activity that covaried with process and outcome simulations confirmed these hypotheses. A functional connectivity analysis with posterior cingulate, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and anterior inferior parietal lobule seeds showed that their activity was correlated during process simulations and associated with a distributed network of default and frontoparietal control network regions. During outcome simulations, medial prefrontal cortex and amygdala seeds covaried together and formed a functional network with default and reward-processing regions. © The Author (2014). Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Windows on the future using scenarios to envision the impact of future uncertainties on utility markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-09-01

This executive report introduces a creative approach to strategy development that begins with scenarios and ends with responsive customer business strategies. Created by EPRI and its research partners, this guided approach uses examples from a workshop in ''Scenario Planning.'' The workshop was sponsored by the Customer Systems Division (CSD) as part of its forward-looking plan to provide programs and services capable of meeting customer needs, shareholder expectations, and societal concerns in a changing world. To illustrate the approach, scenarios from EPRI's Customer 20/20 project are examined using contrasting views of the future structure of the industry -- ''incremental change'' and ''retail competition.'' The three scenarios-entitled Retreating Forward, American Renaissance, and Industrial Ecology -- are driven by plausible outcomes of economic, technological, environmental, and regulatory uncertainties. The benefits of creating scenarios and developing strategic responses are depicted in drawings that portray this innovative approach

Projective analysis of staple food crop productivity in adaptation to future climate change in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Qing; Zhang, Wen; Li, Tingting; Sun, Wenjuan; Yu, Yongqiang; Wang, Guocheng

2017-08-01

Climate change continually affects our capabilities to feed the increasing population. Rising temperatures have the potential to shorten the crop growth duration and therefore reduce crop yields. In the past decades, China has successfully improved crop cultivars to stabilize, and even lengthen, the crop growth duration to make use of increasing heat resources. However, because of the complex cropping systems in the different regions of China, the possibility and the effectiveness of regulating crop growth duration to reduce the negative impacts of future climate change remain questionable. Here, we performed a projective analysis of the staple food crop productivity in double-rice, wheat-rice, wheat-maize, single-rice, and single-maize cropping systems in China using modeling approaches. The results indicated that from the present to the 2040s, the warming climate would shorten the growth duration of the current rice, wheat, and maize cultivars by 2-24, 11-13, and 9-29 days, respectively. The most significant shortening of the crop growth duration would be in Northeast China, where single-rice and single-maize cropping dominates the croplands. The shortened crop growth duration would consequently reduce crop productivity. The most significant decreases would be 27-31, 6-20, and 7-22% for the late crop in the double-rice rotation, wheat in the winter wheat-rice rotation, and single maize, respectively. However, our projection analysis also showed that the negative effects of the warming climate could be compensated for by stabilizing the growth duration of the crops via improvement in crop cultivars. In this case, the productivity of rice, wheat, and maize in the 2040s would increase by 4-16, 31-38, and 11-12%, respectively. Our modeling results implied that the possibility of securing future food production exists by adopting proper adaptation options in China.

Projective analysis of staple food crop productivity in adaptation to future climate change in China

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Qing; Zhang, Wen; Li, Tingting; Sun, Wenjuan; Yu, Yongqiang; Wang, Guocheng

2017-08-01

Climate change continually affects our capabilities to feed the increasing population. Rising temperatures have the potential to shorten the crop growth duration and therefore reduce crop yields. In the past decades, China has successfully improved crop cultivars to stabilize, and even lengthen, the crop growth duration to make use of increasing heat resources. However, because of the complex cropping systems in the different regions of China, the possibility and the effectiveness of regulating crop growth duration to reduce the negative impacts of future climate change remain questionable. Here, we performed a projective analysis of the staple food crop productivity in double-rice, wheat-rice, wheat-maize, single-rice, and single-maize cropping systems in China using modeling approaches. The results indicated that from the present to the 2040s, the warming climate would shorten the growth duration of the current rice, wheat, and maize cultivars by 2-24, 11-13, and 9-29 days, respectively. The most significant shortening of the crop growth duration would be in Northeast China, where single-rice and single-maize cropping dominates the croplands. The shortened crop growth duration would consequently reduce crop productivity. The most significant decreases would be 27-31, 6-20, and 7-22% for the late crop in the double-rice rotation, wheat in the winter wheat-rice rotation, and single maize, respectively. However, our projection analysis also showed that the negative effects of the warming climate could be compensated for by stabilizing the growth duration of the crops via improvement in crop cultivars. In this case, the productivity of rice, wheat, and maize in the 2040s would increase by 4-16, 31-38, and 11-12%, respectively. Our modeling results implied that the possibility of securing future food production exists by adopting proper adaptation options in China.

Project Management in Real Time: A Service-Learning Project

Science.gov (United States)

Larson, Erik; Drexler, John A., Jr.

2010-01-01

This article describes a service-learning assignment for a project management course. It is designed to facilitate hands-on student learning of both the technical and the interpersonal aspects of project management, and it involves student engagement with real customers and real stakeholders in the creation of real events with real outcomes. As…

Outcomes of an infection prevention project focusing on hand hygiene and isolation practices.

Science.gov (United States)

Aragon, Daleen; Sole, Mary Lou; Brown, Scott

2005-01-01

Nosocomial infections are a major health problem for hospitalized patients and their families. Since the 1800s, hand hygiene has been recognized as the single best method to prevent the spread of pathogens and nosocomial infections. Despite this fact, many healthcare workers do not adhere to hand hygiene policies. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued a guideline for hand hygiene practices in 2002. Multifaceted approaches to improve hand hygiene have been shown to increase compliance among healthcare workers and subsequently reduce infections. A performance improvement project was initiated to implement this guideline and other strategies to prevent nosocomial infection. This article summarizes the performance improvement processes and the preliminary outcomes on adherence to infection prevention policies related to hand hygiene and isolation practices. Clinically and statistically significant increases were noted for hand hygiene prior to patient care and in wearing masks when indicated. Nurses and patient care technicians had the greatest increases in compliance. Increases in hand hygiene after patient contact and wearing of gown and gloves were also noted, but results were not statistically significant. Nosocomial infection rates from antibiotic-resistant organisms decreased in the first surveillance, but rates increased during the 1-year surveillance. Consumption of alcohol-based foam disinfectant doubled from baseline. Findings are consistent with other published studies. The project will continue with further reinforcement and education over the second year.

Sesame improvement by induced mutations: Results of the co-ordinated research project and recommendation for future studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zanten, L. van

2001-01-01

The FAO/IAEA Co-ordinated Research Project has brought together sesame breeders from 11 countries. They, together with pathologists, agronomists and physiologists, have made considerable effort to advance the genetic improvement in sesame. The results and conclusions from this project cover the mutation techniques used for the genetic improvement of various aspects of sesame. These recommendations do not only deal with the application of mutation induction, but also with the wider plant breeding related objectives and methods to be considered for this semi-domesticated crop. It is clear that more advanced techniques can and should be incorporated in the process which would enhance the genetic improvement. Although five years is a relatively limited time in a plant breeding programme, the participants have been able to produce and make available a considerable pool of agronomically interesting mutant sesame germplasm. The participants in the CRP considered that, together with other specialists, plant breeders can gain fuller benefit from the mutations induced by radiation or chemicals. Work on these mutants must continue in co-operation/consultation with plant physiologists and pathologists, and with biotechnologists who may in the future be able to provide in the future methods for introducing beneficial traits from other crops into sesame. The sesame programme should include scientists from the Member States where sesame grows and scientists from developed countries who may have greater access to physiological and molecular research facilities. (author)

Consonance in Information System Projects: A Relationship Marketing Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Pei-Ying

2010-01-01

Different stakeholders in the information system project usually have different perceptions and expectations of the projects. There is seldom consistency in the stakeholders' evaluations of the project outcome. Thus the outcomes of information system projects are usually disappointing to one or more stakeholders. Consonance is a process that can…

Projected future vegetation changes for the northwest United States and southwest Canada at a fine spatial resolution using a dynamic global vegetation model.

Science.gov (United States)

Shafer, Sarah; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Gray, Elizabeth M.; Pelltier, Richard T.

2015-01-01

Future climate change may significantly alter the distributions of many plant taxa. The effects of climate change may be particularly large in mountainous regions where climate can vary significantly with elevation. Understanding potential future vegetation changes in these regions requires methods that can resolve vegetation responses to climate change at fine spatial resolutions. We used LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, to assess potential future vegetation changes for a large topographically complex area of the northwest United States and southwest Canada (38.0–58.0°N latitude by 136.6–103.0°W longitude). LPJ is a process-based vegetation model that mechanistically simulates the effect of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations on vegetation. It was developed and has been mostly applied at spatial resolutions of 10-minutes or coarser. In this study, we used LPJ at a 30-second (~1-km) spatial resolution to simulate potential vegetation changes for 2070–2099. LPJ was run using downscaled future climate simulations from five coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), GISS-ER, MIROC3.2(medres), UKMO-HadCM3) produced using the A2 greenhouse gases emissions scenario. Under projected future climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the simulated vegetation changes result in the contraction of alpine, shrub-steppe, and xeric shrub vegetation across the study area and the expansion of woodland and forest vegetation. Large areas of maritime cool forest and cold forest are simulated to persist under projected future conditions. The fine spatial-scale vegetation simulations resolve patterns of vegetation change that are not visible at coarser resolutions and these fine-scale patterns are particularly important for understanding potential future vegetation changes in topographically complex areas.

Statistical downscaling of CMIP5 outputs for projecting future changes in rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rashid, Md. Mamunur, E-mail: mdmamunur.rashid@mymail.unisa.edu.au [Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095 (Australia); Beecham, Simon, E-mail: simon.beecham@unisa.edu.au [Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095 (Australia); Chowdhury, Rezaul K., E-mail: rezaulkabir@uaeu.ac.ae [Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095 (Australia); Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, PO Box 15551 (United Arab Emirates)

2015-10-15

A generalized linear model was fitted to stochastically downscaled multi-site daily rainfall projections from CMIP5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia to assess future changes to hydrologically relevant metrics. For this purpose three GCMs, two multi-model ensembles (one by averaging the predictors of GCMs and the other by regressing the predictors of GCMs against reanalysis datasets) and two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were considered. The downscaling model was able to reasonably reproduce the observed historical rainfall statistics when the model was driven by NCEP reanalysis datasets. Significant bias was observed in the rainfall when downscaled from historical outputs of GCMs. Bias was corrected using the Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping technique. Future changes in rainfall were computed from the bias corrected downscaled rainfall forced by GCM outputs for the period 2041–2060 and these were then compared to the base period 1961–2000. The results show that annual and seasonal rainfalls are likely to significantly decrease for all models and scenarios in the future. The number of dry days and maximum consecutive dry days will increase whereas the number of wet days and maximum consecutive wet days will decrease. Future changes of daily rainfall occurrence sequences combined with a reduction in rainfall amounts will lead to a drier catchment, thereby reducing the runoff potential. Because this is a catchment that is a significant source of Adelaide's water supply, irrigation water and water for maintaining environmental flows, an effective climate change adaptation strategy is needed in order to face future potential water shortages. - Highlights: • A generalized linear model was used for multi-site daily rainfall downscaling. • Rainfall was downscaled from CMIP5 GCM outputs. • Two multi-model ensemble approaches were used. • Bias was corrected using the Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping

Learning Outcomes in Sustainability Education among Future Elementary School Teachers

Science.gov (United States)

Foley, Rider W.; Archambault, Leanna M.; Hale, Annie E.; Dong, Hsiang-Kai

2017-01-01

Universities and colleges around the world are exploring ways of reorganizing curricula to educate future leaders in sustainability. Preservice teachers hold tremendous potential to introduce concepts of sustainability far earlier than post-secondary education. However, there is little research of such efforts to yield changes in future elementary…

Multimodal Perioperative Analgesia Regimen to Improve Patient Outcomes After Total Knee Arthroplasty: A Multidisciplinary Quality Improvement Project.

Science.gov (United States)

Donahue, Rebecca E; Bradbury, George R; Zychowicz, Michael E; Muckler, Virginia C

2018-04-01

The primary aim of this quality improvement project was to improve mobilization for patients after total knee arthroscopy by developing and implementing a standardized, evidence-based, multimodal analgesia regimen and patient-educational video. Secondary outcomes included opioid consumption, pain, and length of stay. A pre-post implementation design was used to compare two independent samples. Patients were screened based on inclusion and exclusion criteria 1-2 weeks before surgery. The anesthesia provider made the final determination for inclusion. Data were collected by retrospective chart review. Following implementation, patients displayed significantly improved mobilization, reduced opioid consumption, and reduced length of stay. Patient-reported pain scores were similar or significantly lower in the postimplementation group. Variability of patient outcomes was reduced, and quality of care was improved by standardizing care and incorporating the best available evidence, consistent with organization's resources in the nonacademic-affiliated, community hospital setting. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Can a future choice affect a past measurement’s outcome?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aharonov, Yakir [School of Physics and Astronomy, Tel-Aviv University, Tel-Aviv 6997801 (Israel); Schmid College of Science, Chapman University, Orange, CA 92866 (United States); Iyar, The Israeli Institute for Advanced Research, Rehovot (Israel); Cohen, Eliahu, E-mail: eliahuco@post.tau.ac.il [School of Physics and Astronomy, Tel-Aviv University, Tel-Aviv 6997801 (Israel); Elitzur, Avshalom C. [Iyar, The Israeli Institute for Advanced Research, Rehovot (Israel)

2015-04-15

An EPR experiment is studied where each particle within the entangled pair undergoes a few weak measurements (WMs) along some pre-set spin orientations, with the outcomes individually recorded. Then the particle undergoes one strong measurement along an orientation chosen at the last moment. Bell-inequality violation is expected between the two final measurements within each EPR pair. At the same time, statistical agreement is expected between these strong measurements and the earlier weak ones performed on that pair. A contradiction seemingly ensues: (i) Bell’s theorem forbids spin values to exist prior to the choice of the orientation measured; (ii) A weak measurement is not supposed to determine the outcome of a successive strong one; and indeed (iii) Almost no disentanglement is inflicted by the WMs; and yet (iv) The outcomes of weak measurements statistically agree with those of the strong ones, suggesting the existence of pre-determined values, in contradiction with (i). Although the conflict can be solved by mere mitigation of the above restrictions, the most reasonable resolution seems to be that of the Two-State-Vector Formalism (TSVF), namely, that the choice of the experimenter has been encrypted within the weak measurement’s outcomes, even before the experimenters themselves know what their choice will be.

Drivers of Land Use Change and the Role of Palm Oil Production in Indonesia and Malaysia. Overview of Past Developments and Future Projections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wicke, Birka; Sikkema, Richard; Dornburg, Veronika; Junginger, Martin; Faaij, Andre

2008-07-01

This study provides insight into land use changes (LUC) in Indonesia and Malaysia and into the specific role that palm oil production and its expansion have played in the past and may play in the future in both countries. In relation to future land use changes induced by palm oil production expansion also the GHG emissions of this LUC are analysed to indicate the sustainability (from a GHG emission perspective) of the various palm oil expansion projections

Financing arrangements for nuclear power projects - past and present experience and future expectations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ispas, G.

2004-01-01

The intent of the author of the present paper is to demonstrate, in a practical manner, the role of the past experience and the new approaches of the nuclear projects financing, especially as nuclear generation financing in developing countries involves complex issues that need to be fully understood and dealt with by all the parties involved, namely: high investment costs, generally long construction periods, a high degree of uncertainty with respect to costs and schedule and to public acceptance, particularly because of safety, waste disposal and non-proliferation issues. Moreover, as many associations whose activities consist of ensuring and facilitating at different levels the exchange of knowledge between generations, i.e.: European Nuclear Society (ENS) Young Generation, North American Young Generation in Nuclear (NA-YGN), the goal of the paper is also to outline the importance of the education in nuclear field, i.e. training a young team of specialists to be ready to take over the movement and responsibility in continuing the further development of nuclear program in Romania, mainly with view to the Financing Arrangements for Nuclear Power Projects. The first part of the paper is referring to general financing procedures, while the second part is focusing on a case study related to the: past experience the financing scheme of Cernavoda NPP Unit 1, present or actual experience ongoing financing issues for Cernavoda NPP Unit 2 and potential future shared contribution to the financing of the next Cernavoda NPP units.(author)

Assessment of Outcome in Hypospadias Surgery - A Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexander eSpringer

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Hypospadias is a challenging field of urogenital reconstructive surgery with different techniques being currently used. Modern surgery claims that it is possible to create a functionally and cosmetically normal penis. Continuous reevaluation and assessment of outcome may have a major impact on future clinical practice. Assessment of outcome includes: complication rate, cosmetic appearance of the penis, functional outcome (micturition, sexuality and psychological factors such as quality of life and psychosexual life. This article briefly reviews current strategies of outcome assessment and outlines that in the future long-term assessment should be designed in web-based prospective studies multicenter studies. Somehow in the future we will be able to give an accurate estimation of the long-term consequences of being born with hypospadias.

The future market for biogas from waste - Sub-Project 3; Framtida marknaden foer biogas fraan avfall - Delprojekt 3 inom projektet Perspektiv paa framtida avfallsbehandling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Holmstroem, David; Bisaillon, Mattias; Eriksson, Ola; Hellstroem, Hanna; Nilsson, Karolina

2013-09-01

The overall aim of the project was to study the conditions, opportunities and constraints for the development of the market for biogas from waste in Sweden. Seven areas of importance to the development have been identified in previous projects. The areas are: market and competition, supply and demand for waste, environmental benefits of biogas utilization, technology development, economic value of biogas, political instruments and the handling of digestate. The ambition has been to create a fact and market report for these areas for stake holders such as operators, representatives of authorities and decision makers. The project is a sub-project of 'Perspectives on future waste treatment'. The goal achievement of the project is expected to be good. During the project, there has also been considerable interest in the results, which is already used by a number of operators, both within and outside the project. Thereby, the results have a good spread, even before the project is completed.

Projecting the Global Distribution of the Emerging Amphibian Fungal Pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Based on IPCC Climate Futures.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gisselle Yang Xie

Full Text Available Projected changes in climate conditions are emerging as significant risk factors to numerous species, affecting habitat conditions and community interactions. Projections suggest species range shifts in response to climate change modifying environmental suitability and is supported by observational evidence. Both pathogens and their hosts can shift ranges with climate change. We consider how climate change may influence the distribution of the emerging infectious amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd, a pathogen associated with worldwide amphibian population losses. Using an expanded global Bd database and a novel modeling approach, we examined a broad set of climate metrics to model the Bd-climate niche globally and regionally, then project how climate change may influence Bd distributions. Previous research showed that Bd distribution is dependent on climatic variables, in particular temperature. We trained a machine-learning model (random forest with the most comprehensive global compilation of Bd sampling records (~5,000 site-level records, mid-2014 summary, including 13 climatic variables. We projected future Bd environmental suitability under IPCC scenarios. The learning model was trained with combined worldwide data (non-region specific and also separately per region (region-specific. One goal of our study was to estimate of how Bd spatial risks may change under climate change based on the best available data. Our models supported differences in Bd-climate relationships among geographic regions. We projected that Bd ranges will shift into higher latitudes and altitudes due to increased environmental suitability in those regions under predicted climate change. Specifically, our model showed a broad expansion of areas environmentally suitable for establishment of Bd on amphibian hosts in the temperate zones of the Northern Hemisphere. Our projections are useful for the development of monitoring designs in these areas

Cultivate Africa's Future (CultiAF)

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Loan Library

2013-07-16

Jul 16, 2013 ... The percentage of time that each PI dedicates to the project should ... The projects should address real practical development challenges and ... of such a travel grant does not guarantee funding of any future full proposal, but ...

The Future Days

OpenAIRE

Cerezo Rodríguez, Carlos

2014-01-01

In this memorandum it will be read all the documentation related to the Final Project Degree of Carlos Cerezo Rodríguez, The Future Days. The objective of this project has been to realise a mini-game (in form of interactive animation in Flash). So that, it will rest prepared for his posterior upload to websites that offer these services. As it will be appreciated in the writing, the process of construction of the project has been made through a phase of planning and preproduction, a phase of ...

CONSIDER - Core Outcome Set in IAD Research: study protocol for establishing a core set of outcomes and measurements in incontinence-associated dermatitis research.

Science.gov (United States)

Van den Bussche, Karen; De Meyer, Dorien; Van Damme, Nele; Kottner, Jan; Beeckman, Dimitri

2017-10-01

This study protocol describes the methodology for the development of a core set of outcomes and a core set of measurements for incontinence-associated dermatitis. Incontinence is a widespread disorder with an important impact on quality of life. One of the most common complications is incontinence-associated dermatitis, resulting from chemical and physical irritation of the skin barrier, triggering inflammation and skin damage. Managing incontinence-associated dermatitis is an important challenge for nurses. Several interventions have been assessed in clinical trials, but heterogeneity in study outcomes complicates the comparability and standardization. To overcome this challenge, the development of a core outcome set, a minimum set of outcomes and measurements to be assessed in clinical research, is needed. A project team, International Steering Committee and panelists will be involved to guide the development of the core outcome set. The framework of the Harmonizing Outcomes Measures for Eczema roadmap endorsed by Cochrane Skin Group Core Outcomes Set Initiative, is used to inform the project design. A systematic literature review, interviews to integrate the patients' perspective and a consensus study with healthcare researchers and providers using the Delphi procedure will be performed. The project was approved by the Ethics review Committee (April 2016). This is the first project that will identify a core outcome set of outcomes and measurements for incontinence-associated dermatitis research. A core outcome set will reduce possible reporting bias, allow results comparisons and statistical pooling across trials and strengthen evidence-based practice and decision-making. This project has been registered in the Core Outcome Measures in Effectiveness Trials (COMET) database and is part of the Cochrane Skin Group Core Outcomes Set Initiative (CSG-COUSIN). © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Outcomes after cataract surgery in eyes with pseudoexfoliation: Results from the Veterans Affairs Ophthalmic Surgery Outcomes Data Project.

Science.gov (United States)

Turalba, Angela; Cakiner-Egilmez, Tulay; Payal, Abhishek R; Gonzalez-Gonzalez, Luis A; Chomsky, Amy S; Vollman, David E; Baze, Elizabeth F; Lawrence, Mary G; Daly, Mary K

2017-02-01

To compare clinical outcomes of cataract surgery in eyes with and without pseudoexfoliation (PXF). Retrospective deidentified data analysis. A total of 123 PXF and 4776 non-PXF eyes of patients who underwent cataract surgery. We compared data on visual acuity, Visual Function Questionnaire (VFQ)-based quality of life, and complications in PXF and non-PXF eyes from the Veterans Affairs (VA) Ophthalmic Surgery Outcomes Data Project across 5 VA medical centres. Pupillary expansion devices were used in 31 (25.2%) PXF cases and 398 (8.4%) non-PXF cases (p < 0.0001). Capsular tension rings were used in 6 (4.9%) PXF cases and 55 (1.2%) non-PXF cases (p < 0.004). The following complications occurred more frequently in PXF cases: zonular dehiscence without vitrectomy (4 [3.3%] PXF cases vs 40 [0.8%] non-PXF cases p = 0.02), persistent inflammation (28 [24.1%] vs 668 [14.5%]; p = 0.007), and persistent intraocular pressure elevation (5 [4.3%] vs 68 [1.5%]; p = 0.03). Best corrected visual acuity (BCVA) improved in both groups after 1 month, but 87 (83.7%) PXF cases achieved postoperative BCVA better than or equal to 20/40 compared to 3991 (93.8%) non-PXF cases (p = 0.0003). There was no significant difference in the postoperative composite VFQ scores between PXF (82.1 ± 16.9) and non-PXF cases (84.2 ± 16.8, p = 0.09). Several complications occurred more frequently in the PXF group compared to the non-PXF group, and fewer PXF cases achieved BCVA better than or equal to 20/40. Despite this, both groups experienced similar improvement in vision-related quality of life after cataract surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Future United States Domestic Water Demand

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Population projections, estimated per capita consumption rate, and estimated total annual water demand to 2100 for four future projections based off the IPCC SRES...

Nuclear data. Situation and future projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bioux, P.

1995-01-01

Nuclear power provides the major part of the electricity generation in France, using a system of highly developed Pressurized Water Reactors. Electricite de France, which is responsible for the exploitation of this system, is concerned to ensure the continuity of the expertise and facilities which provide relevant basic scientific information contributing to the efficient exploitation of the system and, in particular, the continuity of the means for providing relevant nuclear data. The nuclear data requirements for the exploitation of the existing nuclear power system have been largely met. However, there remain some needs, in particular in the field of reactor neutronics. Furthermore if one considers the future (for example, the next 10 years) it is not certain that will be possible to meet the needs which are expected to arise. The review, commissioned on behalf of EDF, about the current status and future expectations for work in this field, has shown certain tendencies in the international situation. In particular one notes a general reduction in the effort both in Western Europe and the United States. This negative tendency can perhaps be explained by the almost general reduction world-wide in new nuclear power developments. However, unresolved problems remain, such as the development of methods for reducing the stocks of plutonium and the incineration and storage of a nuclear waste of long duration. In addition improvements in the accuracy of nuclear data could result in non-negligible economic benefits in the exploitation of the existing nuclear facilities. For these very important reasons it is desirable to reverse the present trend. (author). 2 annexes

Projecting Electricity Demand in 2050

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hostick, Donna J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Belzer, David B. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hadley, Stanton W. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Markel, Tony [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Marnay, Chris [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Kintner-Meyer, Michael C. W. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2014-07-01

This paper describes the development of end-use electricity projections and load curves that were developed for the Renewable Electricity (RE) Futures Study (hereafter RE Futures), which explored the prospect of higher percentages (30% - 90%) of total electricity generation that could be supplied by renewable sources in the United States. As input to RE Futures, two projections of electricity demand were produced representing reasonable upper and lower bounds of electricity demand out to 2050. The electric sector models used in RE Futures required underlying load profiles, so RE Futures also produced load profile data in two formats: 8760 hourly data for the year 2050 for the GridView model, and in 2-year increments for 17 time slices as input to the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model. The process for developing demand projections and load profiles involved three steps: discussion regarding the scenario approach and general assumptions, literature reviews to determine readily available data, and development of the demand curves and load profiles.

The Commonwealth Local Government Pacific Project: Seeking ‘most significant change’

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Graham Hassall

2010-03-01

Full Text Available The origins of the Commonwealth Local Government Forum’s Pacific Project date to a 1997 roundtable in Papua New Guinea. Substantial activity, however, commenced more recently in 2005 with the launch of a 5-year project to enhance the quality of local government in the small states of the Pacific Islands. The project was well-conceived and managed to establish strong ‘buy-in’ by major stakeholders and partners. A mid-term review was undertaken in 2008 and was generally positive. The project is now in the final stages of implementation of what it hoped will be only its first phase. In 2009-2010 its central task is to ensure that the ‘key results’ envisaged at the outset are achieved: donors are looking for evidence of real impact in participating countries; project administrators are refining management practices on the basis of the mid-term review (as well as the regular feedback they receive from participating countries; participating countries are being asked to realistically plan, and to better integrate project activities into their ongoing work-plans as evidence of both genuine development outcomes and future sustainability of lessons learned.

Current status and future direction of INPRO (International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Omoto, Akira; Moriwaki, Masanao; Sugimoto, Jun; Nakai, Ryodai

2007-01-01

INPRO is an international forum to consider jointly the international and national actions required to achieve desired innovations in nuclear reactors and fuel cycles so as to ensure that nuclear energy is available to contribute to a sustainable development of the human, and IAEA becomes the secretariat for INPRO. The number of the members counts 28 by recent participation of Japan and U.S.A. now, and it is a unique forum to bring together both technology users and technology holders, that includes 5 countries which do not still have nuclear power generation. Until now it was phase I, and focused its activities to make clear the desired characteristics of nuclear energy system toward the future, and to develop methodology to evaluate various nuclear energy systems, but it shifted to phase II from July, 2006, and it planned three areas of activities such as improvement of evaluation methodology, institutional/infrastructure oriented activities and a collaborative project of technology development. Current status and future direction of INPRO was presented to encourage Japan in significant contributions of these three areas. (T. Tanaka)

Relationships among Team Trust, Team Cohesion, Team Satisfaction and Project Team Effectiveness as Perceived by Project Managers in Malaysia

OpenAIRE

Han-Ping Fung

2014-01-01

Today, more and more project teams are formed to achieve organizational objectives as organizations generally recognized the importance and benefits of project teams. There is a compelling reason to study what are the team outcome factors that can predict project team effectiveness as it is unclear whether these team outcome factors can yield the same result in project setting whereby there is resource and time constraint compare to normal work teams which are ongoing and operational in natur...

The Results of Development of the Project ZOOINT and its Future Perspectives

Science.gov (United States)

Smirnov, I. S.; Lobanov, A. L.; Alimov, A. F.; Medvedev, S. G.; Golikov, A. A.

future of most advanced technologies of development of the DB (for example, usage of the XML platform) and, eventually, building of the modern information systems. The work on the project is carried out at support of the RFBR grant N 02-07-90217; programs "The Information system on a biodiversity of Russia" and Project N 15 "Antarctic Regions".

Ceramics and its Dimensions: Shaping the Future

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

2016-01-01

Ceramics and its Dimensions is a project which examines European ceramics from the perspectives of the past as well as of the future, with its new possibilities. The project has partner institutions in eleven different countries in Europe and it is co-funded through the Creative Europe program...... of EU and coordinated by the Porzellanikon Porcelain museum, Selb, Germany. Ceramics and its Dimensions: Shaping the Future (Module 6) is one of the ten modules (sub-projects) of the project and led by Aalto University, School of Art, Design and Architecture, Department of Design, Helsinki, Finland....... The sub-project consists of a workshop, a touring exhibition and a publication. It has been co-funded by the Finnish Ministry of Education and Culture....

Future climate. Engineering solutions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ferdinand, J.F.; Hagedorn-Rasmussen, P.; Fonnesbech, B.

2009-09-15

Future Climate Engineering Solutions - Joint Report is the common output and a documentation of more than 1 year's effort by 13 engineering associations - in 12 countries - to demonstrate how technologies can combat climate change. The report consists of three parts: Summaries of 10 national climate plans and technology prospects, 5 Key Common Findings, and a Climate Call from Engineers to create a new global climate treaty. The basic assumption of the project is recognition that GHG emissions, and their concentration in the atmosphere, must be reduced to a sustainable level. The project definition of a sustainable level is equivalent to the best-case stabilisation scenario which was presented in the 4th Assessment Report (AR4) by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), whereby the global mean temperature is most likely to stabilise at 2.0-2.4 deg. C. The Future Climate website www.futureclimate.info holds more information about the project, including possibility to download project material, including the full national climate plans.

Managing projects using a project management approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marko D. Andrejić

2011-04-01

these objectives should be like. Requirements and effects of the application of project management The goal of the project management methodology is to assist the manager in all of these elements, but also to provide a uniform way of evaluating his performance as an objective comparison of indicators in all projects that are implemented in the system. Project management methodology Efficient business operations and fulfilling the requests of users, or buyers if business is done for the third parties, require modern planning and management of projects using computers and appropriate software. Given that the project management with the help of network models requires frequent and rapid processing of large amount of data, it is obvious that the application of computers in this area is of utmost importance. System of reporting on project implementation To achieve effective monitoring, control and implementation of control actions, it is necessary to organize an effective reporting system that will provide timely and realistic information about the real state of the project, in terms of job performing time, the resources spent and the costs of project implementation. Concept of risk management In any project there are many different risk events by type, the probability of appearance, manner and size of the impact of the project. The process of testing the nature of risk events in the project as well as their potential impact on the outcome of the project and their interdependence are realized through the risk analysis. Conclusion Methodologies of project management surged from these differences, when it became apparent that a unified approach to the problem of project managing does not meet the unique project requirements. Taking into account that in the future projects will become more complex and that the methodology of project management will be required to deal with such projects, a proper selection of methodology within the organization is extremely important.

Defining Project Purchasing Activities - Exemplified by the Purchasing Practices in Offshore Wind Farm Projects

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lutz, Salla

and limited learning outcomes from one project to another. Furthermore, the study reveals the importance of a more holistic approach to project purchasing practices by focusing on the entire life cycle of a project. Managerially it helps selling companies to understand the peculiar buying phases...

Site remediation and the future of radiation protection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olsen, R.L.

1999-01-01

An ongoing project on The Future of Radiation Protection is exploring the most important radiation-related challenges that may emerge between now and 2025. Project participants have already identified the restoration of sites contaminated by radioactive residues as one of the central challenges of the generation ahead. Scenarios developed in the project explore a wide range of plausible radiation protection futures, from highly desirable futures to futures dominated by problems and crises. The most negative scenario involves many developments that produce radioactive residues, from accidents that release radionuclides and scandals over the improper handling and disposal of radioactive wastes to accelerating proliferation of nuclear weapons and incidents of radiological terrorism. A majority of expert participants in focus groups conducted as part of the project view this negative scenario as the most probable future. Other scenarios explore a 'greater use' future (e.g., a second generation of nuclear power) and a future where advancing technology leads away from the use of radioactive materials. These two scenarios elicit strong enthusiasm from different sets of participants, but neither of them is viewed as likely. A final 'Whole System Protection' scenario is viewed favorably by the widest range of participants and is viewed as reasonably likely. This scenario is being developed further in the current stage of the project. It is being developed to highlight common ground between participants in terms of agreement on 'principles for guiding action.' Principles such as total accounting, pollution prevention, risk harmonization, public right to know, stewardship, and sustainability may form a framework for guiding action that can transcend traditional debates and revitalize the field of radiation protection. (author)

How many people will need palliative care in 2040? Past trends, future projections and implications for services.

Science.gov (United States)

Etkind, S N; Bone, A E; Gomes, B; Lovell, N; Evans, C J; Higginson, I J; Murtagh, F E M

2017-05-18

Current estimates suggest that approximately 75% of people approaching the end-of-life may benefit from palliative care. The growing numbers of older people and increasing prevalence of chronic illness in many countries mean that more people may benefit from palliative care in the future, but this has not been quantified. The present study aims to estimate future population palliative care need in two high-income countries. We used mortality statistics for England and Wales from 2006 to 2014. Building on previous diagnosis-based approaches, we calculated age- and sex-specific proportions of deaths from defined chronic progressive illnesses to estimate the prevalence of palliative care need in the population. We calculated annual change over the 9-year period. Using explicit assumptions about change in disease prevalence over time, and official mortality forecasts, we modelled palliative care need up to 2040. We also undertook separate projections for dementia, cancer and organ failure. By 2040, annual deaths in England and Wales are projected to rise by 25.4% (from 501,424 in 2014 to 628,659). If age- and sex-specific proportions with palliative care needs remain the same as in 2014, the number of people requiring palliative care will grow by 25.0% (from 375,398 to 469,305 people/year). However, if the upward trend observed from 2006 to 2014 continues, the increase will be of 42.4% (161,842 more people/year, total 537,240). In addition, disease-specific projections show that dementia (increase from 59,199 to 219,409 deaths/year by 2040) and cancer (increase from 143,638 to 208,636 deaths by 2040) will be the main drivers of increased need. If recent mortality trends continue, 160,000 more people in England and Wales will need palliative care by 2040. Healthcare systems must now start to adapt to the age-related growth in deaths from chronic illness, by focusing on integration and boosting of palliative care across health and social care disciplines. Countries with

Alternatives for Future Waste Management in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller Andersen, Frits; Cimpan, Ciprian; Dall, Ole

The TOPWASTE project has addressed the challenges of planning robust solutions for future waste management. The purpose was to identify economic and environmentally optimal solutions ‐ taking into account different scenarios for the development of the surrounding systems, such as the energy syste......, environmental and resource efficiency of waste management solutions. The following chapters addresses these issues by answering some of the main research questions of the project.......The TOPWASTE project has addressed the challenges of planning robust solutions for future waste management. The purpose was to identify economic and environmentally optimal solutions ‐ taking into account different scenarios for the development of the surrounding systems, such as the energy system....... During the project, four decision support tools were developed:1. Frida ‐ The EPA's tool for forecasting future waste generation 2. OptiWaste ‐ a new tool for economic optimisation of investments and operation of the combined waste and energy system3. KISS ‐ a new lifecycle based model with focus...

Collaborative Contracting in Projects

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Suprapto, M.

2016-01-01

Project practitioners have increasingly recognized the importance of collaborative relationships to ensure successful executions of projects. However, the ability to sustain and consistenly drive real collaborative attitudes and behavior for achieving the desired outcomes remains of enduring

Challenges for future space power systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brandhorst, H.W. Jr.

1989-01-01

The future appears rich in missions that will extend the frontiers of knowledge, human presence in space, and opportunities for profitable commerce. The key to success of these ventures is the availability of plentiful, cost effective electric power and assured, low cost access to space. While forecasts of space power needs are problematic, an assessment of future needs based on terrestrial experience was made. These needs fall into three broad categories-survival, self sufficiency and industrialization. The cost of delivering payloads to orbital locations from low earth orbit (LEO) to Mars was determined and future launch cost reductions projected. From these factors, then, projections of the performance necessary for future solar and nuclear space power options were made. These goals are largely dependent upon orbital location and energy storage needs

Intensity changes in future extreme precipitation: A statistical event-based approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Manola, Iris; van den Hurk, Bart; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

2017-04-01

method, unchanged. The advantages of the suggested Pi-Td method of projecting future precipitation events from historic events is that it is simple to use, is less expensive time, computational and resource wise compared to a numerical model. The outcome can be used directly for hydrological and climatological studies and for impact analysis such as for flood risk assessments.

Response of net ecosystem CO2 exchange and evapotranspiration of boreal forest ecosystems to projected future climate changes: results of a modeling study

Science.gov (United States)

Olchev, Alexander; Kurbatova, Julia

2014-05-01

It is presented the modeling results describing the possible response of net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE), gross (GPP) and net (NPP) primary production, as well as evapotranspiration (ET) of spruce forest ecosystems situated at central part of European part of Russia at the southern boundary of boreal forest community to projected future changes of climatic conditions and forest species composition. A process-based MixFor-SVAT model (Olchev et al 2002, 2008, 2009) has been used to describe the CO2 and H2O fluxes under present and projected future climate conditions. The main advantage of MixFor-SVAT is its ability not only to describe seasonal and daily dynamics of total CO2 and H2O fluxes at an ecosystem level, but also to adequately estimate the contributions of soil, forest understorey, and various tree species in overstorey into total ecosystem fluxes taking into account their individual responses to changes in environmental conditions as well as the differences in structure and biophysical properties. Results of modeling experiments showed that projected changes of climate conditions (moderate scenario A1B IPCC) and forest species composition at the end of 21 century can lead to small increase of annual evapotranspiration as well as to growth of NEE, GPP and NPP of the forests in case if the projected increase in temperature and elevated CO2 in the atmosphere in future will be strictly balanced with growth of available nutrients and water in plant and soil. It is obvious that any deficit of e.g. nitrogen in leaves (due to reduced transpiration, nitrogen availability in soil, etc.) may lead to decreases in the photosynthesis and respiration rates of trees and, as a consequence, to decreases in the GPP and NEE of entire forest ecosystem. Conducted modeling experiments have demonstrated that a 20% reduction of available nitrogen in tree leaves in a monospesific spruce forest stand may result in a 14% decrease in NEE, a 8% decrease in NPP, and a 4% decrease in

State of the Art of helium heat exchanger development for future HTR-projects - HTR2008-58146

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Esch, M.; Juergens, B.; Hurtado, A.; Knoche, D.; Tietsch, W.

2008-01-01

In Germany two HTR nuclear power plants had been built and operated, the AVR-15 and the THTR-300. Also various projects for different purposes in a large power range had been developed, The AVR-15, an experimental reactor with a power output of 15 MWel was operated for more than 20 years with excellent results. The THTR-300 was designed as a prototype demonstration plant with 300 MWel and should be the technological basis for the entire future reactor line. The THTR-300 was prematurely shut down and decommissioned because of political reasons. But because of the accompanying comprehensive R and D program and the operation time of about 5 years, the technology was proved and essential operational results were gained. The AVR steam generator was installed above the reactor core. The six THTR heat exchangers were arranged circularly around the reactor core, Both heat exchanger systems have been operated successfully and furthermore acted as a residual heat removal system. The technology knowledge and experience gained on these existing HTR plants is still available at Westinghouse Electric Germany GmbH since Westinghouse is one of the legal successors of the former German HTR companies. As a follow-up project of THTR, the HTR-500 was developed and designed up to the manufacturing stage. For this plant additionally to the 8 steam generators, two residual heat removal heat exchangers were foreseen. These were to be installed in a ring around the reactor core. All these HTRs were designed for the generation of electricity using a steam cycle. Extensive research work has also been done for advanced applications of HTR technology e.g. using a direct cycle within the HHT project or generating process heat within the framework of the PNP project, Because of the critical attitude of the German government to the nuclear power in the past 20 years in Germany there was only a very limited interest in the further development of the HTR technology. As a consequence of the German

SMART DOCS: A New Patient-Centered Outcomes and Coordinated-Care Management Approach for the Future Practice of Sleep Medicine

Science.gov (United States)

Kushida, Clete A.; Nichols, Deborah A.; Holmes, Tyson H.; Miller, Ric; Griffin, Kara; Cardell, Chia-Yu; Hyde, Pamela R.; Cohen, Elyse; Manber, Rachel; Walsh, James K.

2015-01-01

The practice of medicine is currently undergoing a transformation to become more efficient, cost-effective, and patient centered in its delivery of care. The aim of this article is to stimulate discussion within the sleep medicine community in addressing these needs by our approach as well as other approaches to sleep medicine care. The primary goals of the Sustainable Methods, Algorithms, and Research Tools for Delivering Optimal Care Study (SMART DOCS) are: (1) to introduce a new Patient-Centered Outcomes and Coordinated-Care Management (PCCM) approach for the future practice of sleep medicine, and (2) to test the PCCM approach against a Conventional Diagnostic and Treatment Outpatient Medical Care (CONV) approach in a randomized, two-arm, single-center, long-term, comparative effectiveness trial. The PCCM approach is integrated into a novel outpatient care delivery model for patients with sleep disorders that includes the latest technology, allowing providers to obtain more accurate and rapid diagnoses and to make evidence-based treatment recommendations, while simultaneously enabling patients to have access to personalized medical information and reports regarding their diagnosis and treatment so that they can make more informed health care decisions. Additionally, the PCCM approach facilitates better communication between patients, referring primary care physicians, sleep specialists, and allied health professionals so that providers can better assist patients in achieving their preferred outcomes. A total of 1,506 patients 18 y or older will be randomized to either the PCCM or CONV approach and will be followed for at least 1 y with endpoints of improved health care performance, better health, and cost control. Clinical Trials Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02037438. Citation: Kushida CA, Nichols DA, Holmes TH, Miller R, Griffin K, Cardell CY, Hyde PR, Cohen E, Manber R, Walsh JK. SMART DOCS: a new patient-centered outcomes and coordinated

Blood genotyping for improved outcomes in chronic transfusion patients: current and future perspectives

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kutner JM

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Jose Mauro Kutner,1 Mariza Mota,1 Fabiana Conti,1 Lilian Castilho1,2 1Hemotherapy and Cell Therapy Department, Hospital Israelita Albert Einstein, São Paulo, SP, Brazil; 2Hemocentro Unicamp, Campinas, SP, Brazil Abstract: Blood transfusions are life sustaining in chronically transfused patients. However, certain complications, such as alloimmunization to red blood cells, can create challenges in the management of those patients. Routine phenotyping of blood recipients and the use of phenotype-matched blood units for transfusion have been useful to lower the occurrence of red cell alloantibodies in chronically transfused individuals. Nevertheless, extensive phenotyping is expensive, laborious, and cannot be performed in certain situations. The molecular understanding of blood groups has enabled the design of assays that may be used to better guide matched red blood cell transfusions. This review summarizes key findings related to red cell alloimmunization, the already identified and potential future benefits of blood group genotyping, and how molecular typing is being incorporated in the blood bank's routine to improve clinical and long-term outcomes in chronically transfused patients. Keywords: blood group genotyping, chronically transfused patients, platelet genotyping, RBC alloimmunization

Safety criteria for the future LMFBR's in France and main safety issues for the rapide 1500 project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Justin, F.; Natta, M.; Orzoni, G.

1985-04-01

The main safety criteria for future LMFBR in France and the related issues for the RAPIDE 1500 project are presented and discussed. The evolutions with respect to SUPERPHENIX options and requirements are emphasized, in particular for the concerns of the prevention of core melt accidents, fuel damage limits and related required performances of the protection system, since one main option is not to consider whole core melt accidents in the containment design. One shall also point out the advantages of some mitigating features which were nevertheless added in the containment design, although without any explicit consideration for core melt accidents

Ischaemic heart disease deaths in Brazil: current trends, regional disparities and future projections.

Science.gov (United States)

Baena, Cristina P; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Schio, Nicolle Amboni; Sabbag, Ary Elias; Guarita-Souza, Luiz Cesar; Olandoski, Marcia; Franco, Oscar H; Faria-Neto, José Rocha

2013-09-01

To quantify the trend of ischaemic heart disease (IHD) deaths in Brazil during the last decade (2000-2010) for various population characteristics and to forecast the upcoming mortality trends across regions in Brazil until the year 2015. Nationwide comparative observational study. The population studied encompassed all adult residents (≥ 20 years) living in five Brazilian regions between 2000 and 2010. Demographic, economic and mortality data were obtained from Brazilian National Mortality Data System and National Applied Economics Research Institute. Subnotified deaths were redistributed proportionally to IHD deaths. Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) per 100 000 inhabitants, by sex and region, were calculated employing a standard Brazilian population and constructing multivariate regression models to quantify and to project temporal trends. Absolute numbers of death due to IHD and region-specific death rates in Brazil by age and sex. During the study period, 627 786 men and 452 690 women died due to IHD in Brazil. ASMR trends across all regions for men and women converged, driven by a declining trend in the South and Southeast and an opposite incline in the North and Northeast (p < 0.05). Future projections demonstrated potential widening of the observed North-South gap in coming years. The IHD death trend in Brazil has changed from a decline to a stagnant state. However, a significant discrepancy in mortality trends exists between the northern and southern regions, which is likely to widen further. Reappraisal of the public health policies tailored to populations with diverse socioeconomic structures is urgently required.

Chosen aspects of innovative projects management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Gawlik

2010-07-01

Full Text Available Any company willing to maintain its market position has to search and implement innovative products and services. Integrated development ofenterprise’s innovative activity requests a constant search for new technologies and new organizational forms. Ability of effectivemanagement of innovative projects becomes a crucial issue. The paper presents a characteristic of innovative projects accordingly toOECD standards. Project management concepts based on Project Management Institute (PMI and International Project ManagementAssociation (IPMA procedures have been discussed. Key success factors have been defined, i.e.: obtaining assumed project outcome (range, project implementation conform to planned schedule (deadline, maintaining project costs under a certain limit (budget, quality (are the customers satisfied?, resources (team losses and interpersonal relations. Tables comparing product innovativeness with fields of requested know – how for particular product innovativeness levels have been elaborated. Finally, SCRUM method of adaptive project management aiming at providing possibly optimal outcome has been described.

Epidemiological and demographic HIV/AIDS projections: South Africa

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Epidemiological and demographic HIV/AIDS projections: South Africa. ... African Journal of AIDS Research ... Projections and the Spectrum model program developed by the Futures Group were used to model the South African HIV epidemic, project future trends in HIV/AIDS and estimate the demographic impact of AIDS.

A Robust Statistical Model to Predict the Future Value of the Milk Production of Dairy Cows Using Herd Recording Data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Græsbøll, Kaare; Kirkeby, Carsten Thure; Nielsen, Søren Saxmose

2017-01-01

of the future value of a dairy cow requires further detailed knowledge of the costs associated with feed, management practices, production systems, and disease. Here, we present a method to predict the future value of the milk production of a dairy cow based on herd recording data only. The method consists......The future value of an individual dairy cow depends greatly on its projected milk yield. In developed countries with developed dairy industry infrastructures, facilities exist to record individual cow production and reproduction outcomes consistently and accurately. Accurate prediction...... of somatic cell count. We conclude that estimates of future average production can be used on a day-to-day basis to rank cows for culling, or can be implemented in simulation models of within-herd disease spread to make operational decisions, such as culling versus treatment. An advantage of the approach...

Patient Outcomes as Transformative Mechanisms to Bring Health Information Technology Industry and Research Informatics Closer Together.

Science.gov (United States)

Krive, Jacob

2015-01-01

Despite the fast pace of recent innovation within the health information technology and research informatics domains, there remains a large gap between research and academia, while interest in translating research innovations into implementations in the patient care settings is lacking. This is due to absence of common outcomes and performance measurement targets, with health information technology industry employing financial and operational measures and academia focusing on patient outcome concerns. The paper introduces methodology for and roadmap to introduction of common objectives as a way to encourage better collaboration between industry and academia using patient outcomes as a composite measure of demonstrated success from health information systems investments. Along the way, the concept of economics of health informatics, or "infonomics," is introduced to define a new way of mapping future technology investments in accordance with projected clinical impact.

Applying economic principles to outcomes analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Shauver, Melissa J; Chung, Kevin C

2013-04-01

This article presents an introduction to economic outcomes for the plastic surgeon investigator. Types of economic outcomes are introduced and the matter of perspective is discussed. Examples from the plastic surgery literature are presented. The current and future importance of economic outcome measures is emphasized. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Surgical outcomes and nipple projection using the modified skate flap for nipple-areolar reconstruction in a series of 422 implant reconstructions.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhong, Toni; Antony, Anu; Cordeiro, Peter

2009-05-01

Numerous techniques have been used in an attempt to achieve long-term nipple projection following nipple-areolar reconstruction (NAR). A common setback, however, is the diminution of projection over time; this phenomenon is particularly evident following implant based breast reconstruction. The purpose of this report was thus to evaluate surgical outcomes and long-term nipple projection with the use of "modified skate flap" technique in exclusively implant based postmastectomy reconstructions. A retrospective review was performed for the period between 1993 and 2007. All consecutive patients with 2-staged tissue expander/implant reconstructions followed by NAR using the modified skate flap technique performed by the senior author (P.C.) were identified in a prospectively maintained breast reconstruction database. Only patients with a minimum of 1-year follow-up were included in the study. Patients with a history of irradiation to the breast were excluded from nipple projection assessment. Clinical outcome measurements included long-term nipple projection as well as incidence of complications from the NAR procedure using the modified skate flap technique. Over the 15-year study period, 475 patients underwent 2-staged tissue expander/implant reconstruction followed by NAR using the modified skate flap technique. Of these, there was a total of 292 patients with the minimum requirement of 1-year follow-up post NAR (61% follow-up rate). The total number of reconstructed nipple areolar complexes evaluated in this series was 422 (130 bilateral and 162 unilateral NAR). Forty patients (28 unilateral and 12 bilateral NAR) who received radiation to their breasts were excluded from nipple projection assessment. At a median follow-up of 44 months (range: 12-84 months), mean nipple projection was 2.5 mm (range: 1-4 mm). Minor complications occurred in 7.2% of the patients (n = 292). Skin graft donor site dehiscence was the most common complication (3.1%) followed by partial skin

Project risk management: A review of an institutional project life cycle

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wanjiru Gachie

2017-11-01

Full Text Available This article is a desktop analysis of project risk management involving a project management institutional restructuring. The pragmatic nature of this research allows for the literature review and the document analysis to be integrated and presented as both a descriptive and analytical research. The analysis demonstrates that the project committee did not proactively manage project risk. The restructuring was a change management project, entailing the implementation of many organisational changes, such as restructuring, lay-off of some part of the administrative workforce, adoption of new technology, provision of new approaches to well-established procedures, and implementation of new performance initiative, the process which should have been managed with an effective integrated risk strategy and plan. Analysis of the restructuring project risk management exhibits little evidence of a systematic (computer based or manual record that should have provided policies, procedures, and structures for managing risk. The article concludes that the restructuring risk process was inadequate and it could not have ensured a successful project. An analysis of the restructuring project risk monitoring and control exhibits a reactive rather than proactive application of risk management procedures. The analysis further indicates that the committee failed to make use of the various project risk management processes, standards, and guidelines. Based on the conclusions, the article recommends that project risk planning, strategy, control, and monitoring should be put in place for future institutional projects. The project management team should also put in place procedures for primary stakeholders engagements, identify and address their nature of interest and power in future risk management projects

Project-Based Approach in a First-Year Engineering Course to Promote Project Management and Sustainability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pooya Taheri

2018-05-01

Full Text Available To safeguard the environment and satisfy the energy needs of the present, without compromising the ability of future generations to do the same, sustainable energy development is urgently needed. This complex task is riddled with social, political, scientific, technical, and environmental challenges. Education is essential if we are to meet the energy demands of the world in the most sustainable manner available to us. Langara College offers a first-year engineering course that is meant to introduce students to engineering design and case studies, in addition to providing a brief glance on the history, ethics, and the different disciplines of engineering (APSC 1010. Using a project-based learning approach that promotes teamwork and research, this course uses a variety of instructional methods including lectures, class discussions, and guest appearances by experts in their fields. Introductions to technical concepts, such as soldering, 3D printing, and microcontroller, are also addressed in this course. This paper demonstrates how this, or similar courses, are optimized to raise awareness of the sustainability issues this planet is facing. Learning outcomes are evaluated using an anonymous student survey which demonstrates how the students’ project-management and presentation skills have improved.

WHO Better Outcomes in Labour Difficulty (BOLD) project: innovating to improve quality of care around the time of childbirth.

Science.gov (United States)

Oladapo, Olufemi T; Souza, João Paulo; Bohren, Meghan A; Tunçalp, Özge; Vogel, Joshua P; Fawole, Bukola; Mugerwa, Kidza; Gülmezoglu, A Metin

2015-05-26

As most pregnancy-related deaths and morbidities are clustered around the time of childbirth, quality of care during this period is critical to the survival of pregnant women and their babies. Despite the wide acceptance of partograph as the central tool to optimize labour outcomes for over 40 years, its use has not successfully improved outcomes in many settings for several reasons. There are also increasing questions about the validity and applicability of its central feature - "the alert line" - to all women regardless of their labour characteristics. Apart from the known deficiencies in labour care, attempts to improve quality of care in low resource settings have also failed to address and integrate women's birth experience into quality improvement processes. It was against this background that the World Health Organization (WHO) embarked on the Better Outcomes in Labour Difficulty (BOLD) project to improve the quality of intrapartum care in low- and middle-income countries. The main goal of the BOLD project is to reduce intrapartum-related stillbirths, maternal and newborn mortalities and morbidities by addressing the critical barriers to the process of good quality intrapartum care and enhancing the connection between health systems and communities. The project seeks to achieve this goal by (1) developing an evidence-based, easy to use, labour monitoring-to-action decision-support tool (currently termed Simplified, Effective, Labour Monitoring-to-Action - SELMA); and (2) by developing innovative service prototypes/tools, co-designed with users of health services (women, their families and communities) and health providers, to promote access to respectful, dignified and emotionally supportive care for pregnant women and their companions at the time of birth ("Passport to Safer Birth"). This two-pronged approach is expected to positively impact on important domains of quality of care relating to both provision and experience of care. In this paper, we briefly

Educational Futurism and the Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

Science.gov (United States)

Yarbrough, V. Eugene

1976-01-01

The self-fulfilling prophecy can play a dynamic role in the outcome of forecasts for educational futures. Points out that a situation defined as "real" or true in the present has "real" consequences for the future. (Editor/RK)

Impact of low mini-mental status on health outcome up to 5 years after stroke: the Erlangen Stroke Project.

Science.gov (United States)

Liman, T G; Heuschmann, P U; Endres, M; Flöel, A; Schwab, S; Kolominsky-Rabas, P L

2012-06-01

Cognitive deficits are frequent stroke sequelae. Data from population-based stroke cohorts on the impact of cognitive deficits on long-term outcome are scarce. The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of low mini-mental status on health outcome up to 5 years after first-ever stroke. Data were collected from the Erlangen Stroke Project, a population-based stroke registry covering a source population of 103,000 inhabitants. The Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) was used to assess global cognitive function. Health outcome included limitations in instrumental activities of daily living (IADL, Frenchay Activities Index), low independence in activities of daily living (ADL, Barthel Index), depressive symptoms (Zung Self Rating Depression Scale), and institutionalization. Using multivariate logistic regression analysis, association of an education-adjusted MMSE score ≤ 24 with these health outcomes was investigated within distinct models at 12, 36, and 60 months after stroke as well as predictors at 3 months for low IADL. A total of 705 patients with first-ever stroke were included. Institutionalization, low levels of ADL and IADL (p mini-mental status up to 3 years after stroke (OR 2.69, 95% CI 1.2-5.8) as well as older age (p mini-mental status has an independent impact on long-term health outcome after stroke. Our results emphasize the importance of cognitive status screening to identify stroke survivors at risk and manage and treat these patients more efficiently.

Natural tracer profiles across argillaceous formations: the Claytrac project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mazurek, M.; Alt-Epping, P.; Gimi, Th.; Niklaus Waber, H.; Bath, A.; Gimmi, Th.

2009-01-01

Disposal of high-level radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel in engineered facilities, or repositories, located deep underground in suitable geological formations is being developed worldwide as the reference solution to protect humans and the environment both now and in the future. An important aspect of assessing the long-term safety of deep geological disposal is developing a comprehensive understanding of the geological environment in order to define the initial conditions for the disposal system as well as to provide a sound scientific basis for projecting its future evolution. The transport pathways and mechanisms by which contaminants could migrate in the surrounding host rock are key elements in any safety case. Relevant experiments in laboratories or underground test facilities can provide important information, but the challenge remains in being able to extrapolate the results to the spatial and temporal scales required for performance assessment, which are typically tens to hundreds of metres and from thousands to beyond a million years into the future. Profiles of natural tracers dissolved in pore water of argillaceous rock formations can be considered as large-scale and long-term natural experiments which enable the transport properties to be characterised. The CLAYTRAC Project on Natural Tracer Profiles Across Argillaceous Formations was established by the NEA Clay Club to evaluate the relevance of natural tracer data in understanding past geological evolution and in confirming dominant transport processes. Data were analysed for nine sites to support scientific understanding and development of geological disposal. The outcomes of the project show that, for the sites and clay-rich formations that were studied, there is strong evidence that solute transport is controlled mainly by diffusion. The results can improve site understanding and performance assessment in the context of deep geological disposal and have the potential to be applied to other

Vision of future energy networks - Final report; Vision of future energy networks - Schlussbericht

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Froehlich, K.; Andersson, G.

2008-07-01

In the framework of the project 'Vision of Future Networks', models and methods have been developed that enable a greenfield approach for energy systems with multiple energy carriers. Applying a greenfield approach means that no existing infrastructure is taken into account when designing the energy system, i.e. the system is virtually put up on a green field. The developed models refer to the impacts of energy storage on power systems with stochastic generation, to the integrated modelling and optimization of multi-carrier energy systems, to reliability considerations of future energy systems as well as to possibilities of combined transmission of multiple energy carriers. Key concepts, which have been developed in the framework of this project, are the Energy Hub (for the conversion and storage of energy) and the Energy Interconnector (for energy transmission). By means of these concepts, it is possible to design structures for future energy systems being able to cope with the growing requirements regarding energy supply. (author)

The TULIP Project.

Science.gov (United States)

Gusack, Nancy, Ed.; And Others

1995-01-01

Contains 11 articles that describe different university access systems designed and built to provide access to journals via The University Licensing Program (TULIP), a science journal access project, involving Elsevier Science Publishing and major universities. The project produced insights to help with future electronic information delivery…

We Must Invest in Applied Knowledge of Computational Neurosciences and Neuroinformatics as an Important Future in Malaysia: The Malaysian Brain Mapping Project.

Science.gov (United States)

Sumari, Putra; Idris, Zamzuri; Abdullah, Jafri Malin

2017-03-01

The Academy of Sciences Malaysia and the Malaysian Industry-Government group for High Technology has been working hard to project the future of big data and neurotechnology usage up to the year 2050. On the 19 September 2016, the International Brain Initiative was announced by US Under Secretary of State Thomas Shannon at a meeting that accompanied the United Nations' General Assembly in New York City. This initiative was seen as an important effort but deemed costly for developing countries. At a concurrent meeting hosted by the US National Science Foundation at Rockefeller University, numerous countries discussed this massive project, which would require genuine collaboration between investigators in the realms of neuroethics. Malaysia's readiness to embark on using big data in the field of brain, mind and neurosciences is to prepare for the 4th Industrial Revolution which is an important investment for the country's future. The development of new strategies has also been encouraged by the involvement of the Society of Brain Mapping and Therapeutics, USA and the International Neuroinformatics Coordinating Facility.

Base-age invariance and inventory projections

Science.gov (United States)

C. J. Cieszewski; R. L. Bailey; B. E. Borders; G. H. Brister; B. D. Shiver

2000-01-01

One of the most important functions of forest inventory is to facilitate management decisions towards forest sustainability based on inventory projections into the future. Therefore, most forest inventories are used for predicting future states of the forests, in modern forestry the most common methods used in inventory projections are based on implicit functions...

The climate of the Eastern Seaboard of Australia: A challenging entity now and for future projections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Timbal, Bertrand

2010-01-01

The Eastern SeaBoard (ESB) of Australia has long been recognised as a separate climate entity. Using the latest gridded observations from the Bureau of Meteorology, a definition of the spatial extent of the ESB is proposed. It appears that, while this area has recorded below average rainfall over the last 12 years, the ongoing deficiency is not record breaking in historic terms. This contrasts with record breaking droughts across large parts of inland, eastern Australia. The lesser severity of ongoing rainfall deficiencies in the ESB, compared to the rest of the region, is linked to the different impact of observed changes in regional surface pressure and, in particular, changes in the position of the sub-tropical ridge. It is also observed that while tropical modes of variability in the Pacific and Indian oceans are known to influence the climate of eastern Australia, that influence appears very weak and not statistically significant across the ESB. Finally, some issues relevant to future rainfall projections for the ESB are discussed. It is argued that providing reliable climate projections across this climatic region is a difficult challenge.

Indirect downscaling of global circulation model data based on atmospheric circulation and temperature for projections of future precipitation in hourly resolution

Science.gov (United States)

Beck, F.; Bárdossy, A.

2013-07-01

Many hydraulic applications like the design of urban sewage systems require projections of future precipitation in high temporal resolution. We developed a method to predict the regional distribution of hourly precipitation sums based on daily mean sea level pressure and temperature data from a Global Circulation Model. It is an indirect downscaling method avoiding uncertain precipitation data from the model. It is based on a fuzzy-logic classification of atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs) that is further subdivided by means of the average daily temperature. The observed empirical distributions at 30 rain gauges to each CP-temperature class are assumed as constant and used for projections of the hourly precipitation sums in the future. The method was applied to the CP-temperature sequence derived from the 20th century run and the scenario A1B run of ECHAM5. According to ECHAM5, the summers in southwest Germany will become progressively drier. Nevertheless, the frequency of the highest hourly precipitation sums will increase. According to the predictions, estival water stress and the risk of extreme hourly precipitation will both increase simultaneously during the next decades.

The human genome project and the future of medical practice ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Contrary to the scepticism that characterised the planning stages of the human genome project, the technology and sequence data resulting from the project are set to revolutionise medical practice for good. The expected benefits include: enhanced discovery of disease genes, which will lead to improved knowledge on the ...

Projected range contractions of European protected oceanic montane plant communities: focus on climate change impacts is essential for their future conservation.

Science.gov (United States)

Hodd, Rory L; Bourke, David; Skeffington, Micheline Sheehy

2014-01-01

Global climate is rapidly changing and while many studies have investigated the potential impacts of this on the distribution of montane plant species and communities, few have focused on those with oceanic montane affinities. In Europe, highly sensitive bryophyte species reach their optimum occurrence, highest diversity and abundance in the north-west hyperoceanic regions, while a number of montane vascular plant species occur here at the edge of their range. This study evaluates the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of these species and assesses the implications for EU Habitats Directive-protected oceanic montane plant communities. We applied an ensemble of species distribution modelling techniques, using atlas data of 30 vascular plant and bryophyte species, to calculate range changes under projected future climate change. The future effectiveness of the protected area network to conserve these species was evaluated using gap analysis. We found that the majority of these montane species are projected to lose suitable climate space, primarily at lower altitudes, or that areas of suitable climate will principally shift northwards. In particular, rare oceanic montane bryophytes have poor dispersal capacity and are likely to be especially vulnerable to contractions in their current climate space. Significantly different projected range change responses were found between 1) oceanic montane bryophytes and vascular plants; 2) species belonging to different montane plant communities; 3) species categorised according to different biomes and eastern limit classifications. The inclusion of topographical variables in addition to climate, significantly improved the statistical and spatial performance of models. The current protected area network is projected to become less effective, especially for specialised arctic-montane species, posing a challenge to conserving oceanic montane plant communities. Conservation management plans need significantly

Projected range contractions of European protected oceanic montane plant communities: focus on climate change impacts is essential for their future conservation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rory L Hodd

Full Text Available Global climate is rapidly changing and while many studies have investigated the potential impacts of this on the distribution of montane plant species and communities, few have focused on those with oceanic montane affinities. In Europe, highly sensitive bryophyte species reach their optimum occurrence, highest diversity and abundance in the north-west hyperoceanic regions, while a number of montane vascular plant species occur here at the edge of their range. This study evaluates the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of these species and assesses the implications for EU Habitats Directive-protected oceanic montane plant communities. We applied an ensemble of species distribution modelling techniques, using atlas data of 30 vascular plant and bryophyte species, to calculate range changes under projected future climate change. The future effectiveness of the protected area network to conserve these species was evaluated using gap analysis. We found that the majority of these montane species are projected to lose suitable climate space, primarily at lower altitudes, or that areas of suitable climate will principally shift northwards. In particular, rare oceanic montane bryophytes have poor dispersal capacity and are likely to be especially vulnerable to contractions in their current climate space. Significantly different projected range change responses were found between 1 oceanic montane bryophytes and vascular plants; 2 species belonging to different montane plant communities; 3 species categorised according to different biomes and eastern limit classifications. The inclusion of topographical variables in addition to climate, significantly improved the statistical and spatial performance of models. The current protected area network is projected to become less effective, especially for specialised arctic-montane species, posing a challenge to conserving oceanic montane plant communities. Conservation management plans need