A System Dynamics Modeling of Water Supply and Demand in Las Vegas Valley

Science.gov (United States)

Parajuli, R.; Kalra, A.; Mastino, L.; Velotta, M.; Ahmad, S.

2017-12-01

The rise in population and change in climate have posed the uncertainties in the balance between supply and demand of water. The current study deals with the water management issues in Las Vegas Valley (LVV) using Stella, a system dynamics modeling software, to model the feedback based relationship between supply and demand parameters. Population parameters were obtained from Center for Business and Economic Research while historical water demand and conservation practices were modeled as per the information provided by local authorities. The water surface elevation of Lake Mead, which is the prime source of water supply to the region, was modeled as the supply side whereas the water demand in LVV was modeled as the demand side. The study was done from the period of 1989 to 2049 with 1989 to 2012 as the historical one and the period from 2013 to 2049 as the future period. This study utilizes Coupled Model Intercomparison Project data sets (2013-2049) (CMIP3&5) to model different future climatic scenarios. The model simulates the past dynamics of supply and demand, and then forecasts the future water budget for the forecasted future population and future climatic conditions. The results can be utilized by the water authorities in understanding the future water status and hence plan suitable conservation policies to allocate future water budget and achieve sustainable water management.

WATER DEMAND PREDICTION USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This paper presents Hourly water demand prediction at the demand nodes of a water distribution network using NeuNet Pro 2.3 neural network software and the monitoring and control of water distribution using supervisory control. The case study is the Laminga Water Treatment Plant and its water distribution network, Jos.

EIA projections of coal supply and demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klein, D.E.

1989-01-01

Contents of this report include: EIA projections of coal supply and demand which covers forecasted coal supply and transportation, forecasted coal demand by consuming sector, and forecasted coal demand by the electric utility sector; and policy discussion

Detecting pipe bursts by monitoring water demand

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bakker, M.; Vreeburg, J.H.G.; Van der Roer, M.; Sperber, V.

2012-01-01

An algorithm which compares measured and predicted water demands to detect pipe bursts was developed and tested on three data sets of water demand and reported pipe bursts of three years. The algorithm proved to be able to detect bursts where the water loss exceeds 30% of the average water demand in

Demand driven decision support for efficient water resources allocation in irrigated agriculture

Science.gov (United States)

Schuetze, Niels; Grießbach, Ulrike Ulrike; Röhm, Patric; Stange, Peter; Wagner, Michael; Seidel, Sabine; Werisch, Stefan; Barfus, Klemens

2014-05-01

Due to climate change, extreme weather conditions, such as longer dry spells in the summer months, may have an increasing impact on the agriculture in Saxony (Eastern Germany). For this reason, and, additionally, declining amounts of rainfall during the growing season the use of irrigation will be more important in future in Eastern Germany. To cope with this higher demand of water, a new decision support framework is developed which focuses on an integrated management of both irrigation water supply and demand. For modeling the regional water demand, local (and site-specific) water demand functions are used which are derived from the optimized agronomic response at farms scale. To account for climate variability the agronomic response is represented by stochastic crop water production functions (SCWPF) which provide the estimated yield subject to the minimum amount of irrigation water. These functions take into account the different soil types, crops and stochastically generated climate scenarios. By applying mathematical interpolation and optimization techniques, the SCWPF's are used to compute the water demand considering different constraints, for instance variable and fix costs or the producer price. This generic approach enables the computation for both multiple crops at farm scale as well as of the aggregated response to water pricing at a regional scale for full and deficit irrigation systems. Within the SAPHIR (SAxonian Platform for High Performance Irrigation) project a prototype of a decision support system is developed which helps to evaluate combined water supply and demand management policies for an effective and efficient utilization of water in order to meet future demands. The prototype is implemented as a web-based decision support system and it is based on a service-oriented geo-database architecture.

A Framework for Sustainable Urban Water Management through Demand and Supply Forecasting: The Case of Istanbul

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Murat Yalçıntaş

2015-08-01

Full Text Available The metropolitan city of Istanbul is becoming overcrowded and the demand for clean water is steeply rising in the city. The use of analytical approaches has become more and more critical for forecasting the water supply and demand balance in the long run. In this research, Istanbul’s water supply and demand data is collected for the period during 2006 and 2014. Then, using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA model, the time series water supply and demand forecasting model is constructed for the period between 2015 and 2018. Three important sustainability metrics such as water loss to supply ratio, water loss to demand ratio, and water loss to residential demand ratio are also presented. The findings show that residential water demand is responsible for nearly 80% of total water use and the consumption categories including commercial, industrial, agriculture, outdoor, and others have a lower share in total water demand. The results also show that there is a considerable water loss in the water distribution system which requires significant investments on the water supply networks. Furthermore, the forecasting results indicated that pipeline projects will be critical in the near future due to expected increases in the total water demand of Istanbul. The authors suggest that sustainable management of water can be achieved by reducing the residential water use through the use of water efficient technologies in households and reduction in water supply loss through investments on distribution infrastructure.

Improving Water Demand Management Addressing Socioeconomic ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

2012-01-20

Jan 20, 2012 ... Efforts to conserve water by improving water demand management policies in the Middle East and North Africa are often slowed or even thwarted by a lack of political consensus and support for water demand management from key powerful stakeholders with vested interest in the status quo. This policy ...

Improving Water Demand Management Addressing Socioeconomic ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Efforts to conserve water by improving water demand management policies in the Middle East and North Africa are often slowed or even thwarted by a lack of political consensus and support for water demand management from key powerful stakeholders with vested interest in the status quo. This policy brief based on ...

Climate policy implications for agricultural water demand

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chaturvedi, Vaibhav [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Hejazi, Mohamad I. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Edmonds, James A. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Clarke, Leon E. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Kyle, G. Page [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Davies, Evan [Univ. of Alberta, Edmonton, AB (Canada); Wise, Marshall A. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Calvin, Katherine V. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States)

2013-03-01

Energy, water and land are scarce resources, critical to humans. Developments in each affect the availability and cost of the others, and consequently human prosperity. Measures to limit greenhouse gas concentrations will inevitably exact dramatic changes on energy and land systems and in turn alter the character, magnitude and geographic distribution of human claims on water resources. We employ the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model to explore the interactions of energy, land and water systems in the context of alternative policies to limit climate change to three alternative levels: 2.5 Wm-2 (445 ppm CO2-e), 3.5 Wm-2 (535 ppm CO2-e) and 4.5 Wm-2 (645 ppm CO2-e). We explore the effects of two alternative land-use emissions mitigation policy options—one which taxes terrestrial carbon emissions equally with fossil fuel and industrial emissions, and an alternative which only taxes fossil fuel and industrial emissions but places no penalty on land-use change emissions. We find that increasing populations and economic growth could be anticipated to almost triple demand for water for agricultural systems across the century even in the absence of climate policy. In general policies to mitigate climate change increase agricultural demands for water still further, though the largest changes occur in the second half of the century, under both policy regimes. The two policies examined profoundly affected both the sources and magnitudes of the increase in irrigation water demands. The largest increases in agricultural irrigation water demand occurred in scenarios where only fossil fuel emissions were priced (but not land-use change emission) and were primarily driven by rapid expansion in bioenergy production. In these scenarios water demands were large relative to present-day total available water, calling into question whether it would be physically possible to produce the associated biomass energy. We explored the potential of improved

Systematic impact assessment on inter-basin water transfer projects of the Hanjiang River Basin in China

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Yanlai; Guo, Shenglian; Hong, Xingjun; Chang, Fi-John

2017-10-01

China's inter-basin water transfer projects have gained increasing attention in recent years. This study proposes an intelligent water allocation methodology for establishing optimal inter-basin water allocation schemes and assessing the impacts of water transfer projects on water-demanding sectors in the Hanjiang River Basin of China. We first analyze water demands for water allocation purpose, and then search optimal water allocation strategies for maximizing the water supply to water-demanding sectors and mitigating the negative impacts by using the Standard Genetic Algorithm (SGA) and Adaptive Genetic Algorithm (AGA), respectively. Lastly, the performance indexes of the water supply system are evaluated under different scenarios of inter-basin water transfer projects. The results indicate that: the AGA with adaptive crossover and mutation operators could increase the average annual water transfer from the Hanjiang River by 0.79 billion m3 (8.8%), the average annual water transfer from the Changjiang River by 0.18 billion m3 (6.5%), and the average annual hydropower generation by 0.49 billion kW h (5.4%) as well as reduce the average annual unmet water demand by 0.40 billion m3 (9.7%), as compared with the those of the SGA. We demonstrate that the proposed intelligent water allocation schemes can significantly mitigate the negative impacts of inter-basin water transfer projects on the reliability, vulnerability and resilience of water supply to the demanding sectors in water-supplying basins. This study has a direct bearing on more intelligent and effectual water allocation management under various scenarios of inter-basin water transfer projects.

Working Paper 4: Institutions for Effective Water Demand ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

2012-01-23

Jan 23, 2012 ... Working Paper 4: Institutions for Effective Water Demand ... This working paper is part of WaDImena 's four Research Series on Water Demand Management ... Improving Water Demand Management Addressing Socioeconomic Inequalities and ... Women's rights and access to water and sanitation in Delhi.

Evaluation of Ensemble Water Supply and Demands Forecasts for Water Management in the Klamath River Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Broman, D.; Gangopadhyay, S.; McGuire, M.; Wood, A.; Leady, Z.; Tansey, M. K.; Nelson, K.; Dahm, K.

2017-12-01

The Upper Klamath River Basin in south central Oregon and north central California is home to the Klamath Irrigation Project, which is operated by the Bureau of Reclamation and provides water to around 200,000 acres of agricultural lands. The project is managed in consideration of not only water deliveries to irrigators, but also wildlife refuge water demands, biological opinion requirements for Endangered Species Act (ESA) listed fish, and Tribal Trust responsibilities. Climate change has the potential to impact water management in terms of volume and timing of water and the ability to meet multiple objectives. Current operations use a spreadsheet-based decision support tool, with water supply forecasts from the National Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) and California-Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC). This tool is currently limited in its ability to incorporate in ensemble forecasts, which offer the potential for improved operations by quantifying forecast uncertainty. To address these limitations, this study has worked to develop a RiverWare based water resource systems model, flexible enough to use across multiple decision time-scales, from short-term operations out to long-range planning. Systems model development has been accompanied by operational system development to handle data management and multiple modeling components. Using a set of ensemble hindcasts, this study seeks to answer several questions: A) Do a new set of ensemble streamflow forecasts have additional skill beyond what?, and allow for improved decision making under changing conditions? B) Do net irrigation water requirement forecasts developed in this project to quantify agricultural demands and reservoir evaporation forecasts provide additional benefits to decision making beyond water supply forecasts? C) What benefit do ensemble forecasts have in the context of water management decisions?

Water Demand Management Policy Brief No

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Bob Stanley

Water demand management ― WDM ― can be hard to define. More an issue of policy than of technology, it is about managing and moderating our demands for good quality fresh water. It is less a matter of piping and pumps and more a tool ...

Analysis of projected water availability with current basin management plan, Pajaro Valley, California

Science.gov (United States)

Hanson, R. T.; Lockwood, B.; Schmid, Wolfgang

2014-11-01

The projection and analysis of the Pajaro Valley Hydrologic Model (PVHM) 34 years into the future using MODFLOW with the Farm Process (MF-FMP) facilitates assessment of potential future water availability. The projection is facilitated by the integrated hydrologic model, MF-FMP that fully couples the simulation of the use and movement of water from precipitation, streamflow, runoff, groundwater flow, and consumption by natural and agricultural vegetation throughout the hydrologic system at all times. MF-FMP allows for more complete analysis of conjunctive-use water-resource systems than previously possible with MODFLOW by combining relevant aspects of the landscape with the groundwater and surface-water components. This analysis is accomplished using distributed cell-by-cell supply-constrained and demand-driven components across the landscape within ;water-balance subregions; (WBS) comprised of one or more model cells that can represent a single farm, a group of farms, watersheds, or other hydrologic or geopolitical entities. Analysis of conjunctive use would be difficult without embedding the fully coupled supply-and-demand into a fully coupled simulation, and are difficult to estimate a priori. The analysis of projected supply and demand for the Pajaro Valley indicate that the current water supply facilities constructed to provide alternative local sources of supplemental water to replace coastal groundwater pumpage, but may not completely eliminate additional overdraft. The simulation of the coastal distribution system (CDS) replicates: 20 miles of conveyance pipeline, managed aquifer recharge and recovery (MARR) system that captures local runoff, and recycled-water treatment facility (RWF) from urban wastewater, along with the use of other blend water supplies, provide partial relief and substitution for coastal pumpage (aka in-lieu recharge). The effects of these Basin Management Plan (BMP) projects were analyzed subject to historical climate variations and

Environmental management plan (EMP) for Melamchi water supply project, Nepal.

Science.gov (United States)

Khadka, Ram B; Khanal, Anil B

2008-11-01

More than 1.5 million people live in the Kathmandu valley. The valley is facing an extreme shortage of water supply. At the same time the demand is escalating rapidly. To address this issue of scarcity of water, the government of Nepal has proposed a project of inter-basin transfer of water from Melamchi River located 40 km north-east of the Kathmandu valley. The project will cover two districts and three municipalities and will potentially have significant impacts on the environment. In accordance with the Environmental Protection Regulation of Nepal (1997), the Melamchi Water Supply Project (MWSP) has undergone an EIA during the feasibility study stage of the proposed project. The recommendations contained in the EIA were integrated into the project design for implementation in 2006. This paper summarizes the background of MWSP, the environmental concerns described in the EIA and the status of Environmental Management Plan (EMP) developed to address environmental compliance and other issues involving participation and support of the local people. This paper also provides some lessons to learn on the modalities of addressing the demands and grievances of the local people concerning environmental management.

Factors that affect public-supply water use in Florida, with a section on projected water use to the year 2020

Science.gov (United States)

Marella, R.L.

1992-01-01

years 2000, 2010, and 2020, high projections estimate public-supply water use could reach 2,570 Mgal/d in 2000, 3,210 Mgal/d in 2010, and 3,900 Mgal/d in 2020. Palm Beach County is projected to have the largest increase in public-supply water use, from 168 Mgal/d used in 1987 to a medium projected 338 Mgal/d for 2020. Dade County?s public-supply water use is projected (medium) to increase to nearly 471 Mgal/d for 2020, the largest county use in Florida. Water demand options, such as conservation, restrictions, education programs, leak detection and repair programs, and more realistic pricing practices can reduce the demand for freshwater. Increased use of alternative sources of water, such as reclaimed wastewater and desalinated seawater also can reduce the demand for freshwater. Because the water demand projections in this report are based primarily on population projections, they should represent an upper limit of actual future demand if the population projections prove sound. Any additional water demand options implemented in the future at the State, county, or public-supply facility level may significantly reduce per capita use and result in public-supply use less than projected in this report.

­­Drought, water conservation, and water demand rebound in California

Science.gov (United States)

Gonzales, P.; Ajami, N.

2017-12-01

There is growing recognition that dynamic community values, preferences, and water use behaviors are important drivers of water demand in addition to external factors such as temperature and precipitation. Water demand drivers have been extensively studied, yet they have traditionally been applied to models that assume static conditions and usually do not account for potential societal changes in response to increased scarcity awareness. For example, following a period of sustained low demand such as during a drought, communities often increase water use during a hydrologically wet period, a phenomenon known as "rebounding" water use. Yet previous experiences show the extent of this rebound is not a straightforward function of policy and efficiency improvements, but may also reflect short-term or long-lasting change in community behavior, which are not easily captured by models that assume stationarity. In this study we explore cycles of decreased water demand during drought and subsequent water use rebound observed in California in recent decades. We have developed a novel dynamic system model for water demand in three diverse but interconnected service areas in the San Francisco Bay Area, exposing local trends of changing water use behaviors and long-term impacts on water demand since 1980 to the present. In this model, we apply the concept of social memory, defined as a community's inherited knowledge about hazardous events or degraded environmental conditions from past experiences. While this concept has been applied to further conceptual understanding of socio-hydrologic systems in response to hydrological extremes, to the best of our knowledge this the first study to incorporate social memory to model the water demand rebound phenomenon and to use such a model in the examination of changing dynamics validated by historical data. In addition, we take a closer look at water demand during the recent historic drought in California from 2012-16, and relate our

Water Pricing as an Economic Justification for Reducing Non-Revenue Water (NRW Projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Massoud Tabesh

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Management of water demand and modification of consumption patterns are becoming increasingly essential due to the increasingly limited precipitation and the growing population which have led to both severe restrictions on renewable water resources and increasing demands for water in Iran. The most important consumption management measures involve reducing Non-Revenue Water (NRW and decreasing water losses in the water supply system. Non-revenue water is defined as the difference between the total inflow and the metered consumption in the supply system. The losses may be divided into the two components of apparent and real losses. Achieving reductions in non-revenue water calls for the careful study and evaluation of the operational procedures proposed in each case since reductions will be economical only when accurate and realistic values are considered in water pricing. The present study draws upon the data obtained from non-revenue water projects implemented in District 4 of Tehran Water and Wastewater Company, the measures proposed by the project consultant, and the economic justifications claimed for all the costs associated with the measures to eliminate water losses. The cost of the proposed measures are calculated for two different economic values of water proposed to ensure benefits, and under four different interest rates. Results confirm the profitability of the non-revenue water solutions based on the finished cost of water even at subsidized rates of public funds. However, project profitability will be in question if the economic price of water is assumed to be equivalent to the total trade price of water and if both real and apparent losses are to be reduced.

Research of water resources allocation of South-to-North Water Diversion East Route Project in Jiangsu Province ,Eastern China

Science.gov (United States)

Zeng, C.

2015-12-01

Optimized allocation of water resources is the important means of solving regional water shortage and can improve the utilization of water resources. Water resources allocation in the large-scale water diversion project area is the current research focus. This research takes the east route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Jiangsu province as the research area, based on the hydrological model, agricultural irrigation quota model, and water project scheduling model, a water resources allocation model was constructed. The research carried on generalized regional water supply network, simulated the water supply, water demand and water deficit in agriculture, industry, life, ecology and lock under the status quo and planning engineering conditions. According to the results, the east route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project is helpful to improve regional water shortage situation. The results showed that pump output increase by 2.8 billion cubic meters of water. On the conditions of P = 95%, 75% and 50%, compared with the benchmark year, water demand increases slightly due to the need of social and economic development in planning years, and water supply increased significantly because of new diversion ability. Water deficit are greatly reduced by 74.9% especially in the commonly drought condition because of the new project operation and optimized allocation of water resources.

Projection of future transport energy demand of Thailand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Limanond, Thirayoot; Jomnonkwao, Sajjakaj; Srikaew, Artit

2011-01-01

The objective of this study is to project transport energy consumption in Thailand for the next 20 years. The study develops log-linear regression models and feed-forward neural network models, using the as independent variables national gross domestic product, population and the numbers of registered vehicles. The models are based on 20-year historical data between years 1989 and 2008, and are used to project the trends in future transport energy consumption for years 2010-2030. The final log-linear models include only gross domestic product, since all independent variables are highly correlated. It was found that the projection results of this study were in the range of 54.84-59.05 million tonnes of oil equivalent, 2.5 times the 2008 consumption. The projected demand is only 61-65% of that predicted in a previous study, which used the LEAP model. This major discrepancy in transport energy demand projections suggests that projects related to this key indicator should take into account alternative projections, because these numbers greatly affect plans, policies and budget allocation for national energy management. - Research highlights: → Thailand transport energy consumption would increase to 54.4-59.1 MTOE in Year 2030. → The log-linear models yield a slightly higher projection than the ANN models. → The elasticity of transport energy demand with respect to GDP is 0.995.

Projection of future transport energy demand of Thailand

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Limanond, Thirayoot, E-mail: tlimanond@yahoo.co [School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 (Thailand); Jomnonkwao, Sajjakaj [School of Transportation Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 (Thailand); Srikaew, Artit [School of Electrical Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 (Thailand)

2011-05-15

The objective of this study is to project transport energy consumption in Thailand for the next 20 years. The study develops log-linear regression models and feed-forward neural network models, using the as independent variables national gross domestic product, population and the numbers of registered vehicles. The models are based on 20-year historical data between years 1989 and 2008, and are used to project the trends in future transport energy consumption for years 2010-2030. The final log-linear models include only gross domestic product, since all independent variables are highly correlated. It was found that the projection results of this study were in the range of 54.84-59.05 million tonnes of oil equivalent, 2.5 times the 2008 consumption. The projected demand is only 61-65% of that predicted in a previous study, which used the LEAP model. This major discrepancy in transport energy demand projections suggests that projects related to this key indicator should take into account alternative projections, because these numbers greatly affect plans, policies and budget allocation for national energy management. - Research highlights: {yields} Thailand transport energy consumption would increase to 54.4-59.1 MTOE in Year 2030. {yields} The log-linear models yield a slightly higher projection than the ANN models. {yields} The elasticity of transport energy demand with respect to GDP is 0.995.

Improving Water Demand Management by Addressing ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

IDRC CRDI

Efforts to conserve water by improving water demand management policies .... First, ensure fair access to sustainable water supply, as well as, responsible water use. ... Water policy can also mandate reducing the loss of quantity or quality of ...

The demand for refined petroleum products in Iran: Estimation and projection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kianian, A.M.

1990-01-01

The estimation and projection of the demand for refined petroleum products of the OPEC states, are important for the world petroleum market from both the demand and supply sides. In this context, this study forms an econometric model to estimte the demand for the total and four major refined petroleum products (RPPs) in Iran and project their future trends into the year 2000. The fact that Iran has the largest domestic demand for RPPs among all the OPEC members has motivated some research primarily to study the structure of the demand for such products. None, however, has utilized econometric models to estimate or project the demand for RPPs. The first section of this study discusses the structure of the Iranian energy market. Next, the demand functions for gasoline, kerosine, gas oil, fuel oil, and the total RPPs in Iran are estimated. The third section puts together the demand functions to form a model used to project the demand for RPPs up to the year 2000 under an historical scenario. Finally, some condlusions are offered. 7 tabs

Implications of bulk water transfer on local water management institutions: A case study of the Melamchi Water Supply Project in Nepal

OpenAIRE

Pant, Dhruba; Bhattarai, Madhusudan; Basnet, Govinda

2008-01-01

"To mitigate a drinking water crisis in Kathmandu valley, the Government of Nepal initiated the Melamchi Water Supply Project in 1997, which will divert water from the Melamchi River to Kathmandu city's water supply network. In the first phase, the Project will divert 170,000 cubic meters of water per day (at the rate of 1.97M3/sec), which will be tripled using the same infrastructure as city water demand increases in the future. The large scale transfer of water would have farreaching implic...

Conceptual Framework and Computational Research of Hierarchical Residential Household Water Demand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Baodeng Hou

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Although the quantity of household water consumption does not account for a huge proportion of the total water consumption amidst socioeconomic development, there has been a steadily increasing trend due to population growth and improved urbanization standards. As such, mastering the mechanisms of household water demand, scientifically predicting trends of household water demand, and implementing reasonable control measures are key focuses of current urban water management. Based on the categorization and characteristic analysis of household water, this paper used Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs to establish a level and grade theory of household water demand, whereby household water is classified into three levels (rigid water demand, flexible water demand, and luxury water demand and three grades (basic water demand, reasonable water demand, and representational water demand. An in-depth analysis was then carried out on the factors that influence the computation of household water demand, whereby equations for different household water categories were established, and computations for different levels of household water were proposed. Finally, observational experiments on household water consumption were designed, and observation and simulation computations were performed on three typical households in order to verify the scientific outcome and rationality of the computation of household water demand. The research findings contribute to the enhancement and development of prediction theories on water demand, and they are of high theoretical and realistic significance in terms of scientifically predicting future household water demand and fine-tuning the management of urban water resources.

Estimation of water demand in water distribution systems using particle swarm optimization

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Letting, LK

2017-08-01

Full Text Available and an evolutionary algorithm is a potential solution to the demand estimation problem. This paper presents a detailed process simulation model for water demand estimation using the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. Nodal water demands and pipe flows...

Water demand forecasting: review of soft computing methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Ghalehkhondabi, Iman; Ardjmand, Ehsan; Young, William A; Weckman, Gary R

2017-07-01

Demand forecasting plays a vital role in resource management for governments and private companies. Considering the scarcity of water and its inherent constraints, demand management and forecasting in this domain are critically important. Several soft computing techniques have been developed over the last few decades for water demand forecasting. This study focuses on soft computing methods of water consumption forecasting published between 2005 and 2015. These methods include artificial neural networks (ANNs), fuzzy and neuro-fuzzy models, support vector machines, metaheuristics, and system dynamics. Furthermore, it was discussed that while in short-term forecasting, ANNs have been superior in many cases, but it is still very difficult to pick a single method as the overall best. According to the literature, various methods and their hybrids are applied to water demand forecasting. However, it seems soft computing has a lot more to contribute to water demand forecasting. These contribution areas include, but are not limited, to various ANN architectures, unsupervised methods, deep learning, various metaheuristics, and ensemble methods. Moreover, it is found that soft computing methods are mainly used for short-term demand forecasting.

A generic method for projecting and valuing domestic water uses, application to the Mediterranean basin at the 2050 horizon.

Science.gov (United States)

Neverre, Noémie; Dumas, Patrice

2014-05-01

The aim is to be able to assess future domestic water demands in a region with heterogeneous levels of economic development. This work offers an original combination of a quantitative projection of demands (similar to WaterGAP methodology) and an estimation of the marginal benefit of water. This method is applicable to different levels of economic development and usable for large-scale hydroeconomic modelling. The global method consists in building demand functions taking into account the impact of both the price of water and the level of equipment, proxied by economic development, on domestic water demand. Our basis is a 3-blocks inverse demand function: the first block consists of essential water requirements for food and hygiene; the second block matches intermediate needs; and the last block corresponds to additional water consumption, such as outdoor uses, which are the least valued. The volume of the first block is fixed to match recommended basic water requirements from the literature, but we assume that the volume limits of blocks 2 and 3 depend on the level of household equipment and therefore evolve with the level of GDP per capita (structural change), with a saturation. For blocks 1 and 2 we determine the value of water from elasticity, price and quantity data from the literature, using the point-extension method. For block 3, we use a hypothetical zero-cost demand and maximal demand with actual water costs to linearly interpolate the inverse demand function. These functions are calibrated on the 24 countries part of the Mediterranean basin using data from SIMEDD, and are used for the projection and valuation of domestic water demands at the 2050 horizon. They enable to project total water demand, and also the respective shares of the different categories of demand (basic demand, intermediate demand and additional uses). These projections are performed under different combined scenarios of population, GDP and water costs.

Potential climate change impacts on water availability and cooling water demand in the Lusatian Lignite Mining Region, Central Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Pohle, Ina; Koch, Hagen; Gädeke, Anne; Grünewald, Uwe; Kaltofen, Michael; Redetzky, Michael

2014-05-01

In the catchments of the rivers Schwarze Elster, Spree and Lusatian Neisse, hydrologic and socioeconomic systems are coupled via a complex water management system in which water users, reservoirs and water transfers are included. Lignite mining and electricity production are major water users in the region: To allow for open pit lignite mining, ground water is depleted and released into the river system while cooling water is used in the thermal power plants. In order to assess potential climate change impacts on water availability in the catchments as well as on the water demand of the thermal power plants, a climate change impact assessment was performed using the hydrological model SWIM and the long term water management model WBalMo. The potential impacts of climate change were considered by using three regional climate change scenarios of the statistical regional climate model STAR assuming a further temperature increase of 0, 2 or 3 K by the year 2050 in the region respectively. Furthermore, scenarios assuming decreasing mining activities in terms of a decreasing groundwater depression cone, lower mining water discharges, and reduced cooling water demand of the thermal power plants are considered. In the standard version of the WBalMo model cooling water demand is considered as static with regard to climate variables. However, changes in the future cooling water demand over time according to the plans of the local mining and power plant operator are considered. In order to account for climate change impacts on the cooling water demand of the thermal power plants, a dynamical approach for calculating water demand was implemented in WBalMo. As this approach is based on air temperature and air humidity, the projected air temperature and air humidity of the climate scenarios at the locations of the power plants are included in the calculation. Due to increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation declining natural and managed discharges, and hence a lower

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Water Demands and Crop Yields in California's Central Valley

Science.gov (United States)

Tansey, M. K.; Flores-Lopez, F.; Young, C. A.; Huntington, J. L.

2012-12-01

Long term planning for the management of California's water resources requires assessment of the effects of future climate changes on both water supply and demand. Considerable progress has been made on the evaluation of the effects of future climate changes on water supplies but less information is available with regard to water demands. Uncertainty in future climate projections increases the difficulty of assessing climate impacts and evaluating long range adaptation strategies. Compounding the uncertainty in the future climate projections is the fact that most readily available downscaled climate projections lack sufficient meteorological information to compute evapotranspiration (ET) by the widely accepted ASCE Penman-Monteith (PM) method. This study addresses potential changes in future Central Valley water demands and crop yields by examining the effects of climate change on soil evaporation, plant transpiration, growth and yield for major types of crops grown in the Central Valley of California. Five representative climate scenarios based on 112 bias corrected spatially downscaled CMIP 3 GCM climate simulations were developed using the hybrid delta ensemble method to span a wide range future climate uncertainty. Analysis of historical California Irrigation Management Information System meteorological data was combined with several meteorological estimation methods to compute future solar radiation, wind speed and dew point temperatures corresponding to the GCM projected temperatures and precipitation. Future atmospheric CO2 concentrations corresponding to the 5 representative climate projections were developed based on weighting IPCC SRES emissions scenarios. The Land, Atmosphere, and Water Simulator (LAWS) model was used to compute ET and yield changes in the early, middle and late 21st century for 24 representative agricultural crops grown in the Sacramento, San Joaquin and Tulare Lake basins. Study results indicate that changes in ET and yield vary

Analysis of water supply and demand in high mountain cities of Bolivia under growing population and changing climate

Science.gov (United States)

Kinouchi, T.; Mendoza, J.; Asaoka, Y.; Fuchs, P.

2017-12-01

Water resources in La Paz and El Alto, high mountain capital cities of Bolivia, strongly depend on the surface and subsurface runoff from partially glacierized catchments located in the Cordillera Real, Andes. Due to growing population and changing climate, the balance between water supply from the source catchments and demand for drinking, agriculture, industry and hydropower has become precarious in recent years as evidenced by a serious drought during the 2015-2016 El Nino event. To predict the long-term availability of water resources under changing climate, we developed a semi-distributed glacio-hydrological model that considers various runoff pathways from partially glacierized high-altitude catchments. Two GCM projections (MRI-AGCM and INGV-ECHAM4) were used for the prediction with bias corrected by reanalysis data (ERA-INTERIM) and downscaled to target areas using data monitored at several weather stations. The model was applied to three catchments from which current water resources are supplied and eight additional catchments that will be potentially effective in compensating reduced runoff from the current water resource areas. For predicting the future water demand, a cohort-component method was used for the projection of size and composition of population change, considering natural and social change (birth, death and transfer). As a result, total population is expected to increase from 1.6 million in 2012 to 2.0 million in 2036. The water demand was predicted for given unit water consumption, non-revenue water rate (NWR), and sectorial percentage of water consumption for domestic, industrial and commercial purposes. The results of hydrological simulations and the analysis of water demand indicated that water supply and demand are barely balanced in recent years, while the total runoff from current water resource areas will continue to decrease and unprecedented water shortage is likely to occur since around 2020 toward the middle of 21st century even

Water brief — Wastewater Reuse for Water Demand Management ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

2011-01-04

Jan 4, 2011 ... Water Demand Management (WDM) is a water management approach that aims to ... WDM is simply defined as 'getting the most of the water that we have', while taking into ... Villages in Nepal prepare for weather extremes.

Water Demand Management ― Making the most of the water we ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

2010-12-22

Dec 22, 2010 ... Water demand management ― WDM ― can be hard to define. More an issue of policy than of technology, it is about managing and moderating our demands for good quality fresh water. It is less a matter of piping and pumps and more a tool for changing the ways we use water and the rates at which we ...

The Potential for Snow to Supply Human Water Demand in the Present and Future

Science.gov (United States)

Mankin, Justin S.; Viviroli, Daniel; Singh, Deepti; Hoekstra, Arjen Y.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

2015-01-01

Runoff from snowmelt is regarded as a vital water source for people and ecosystems throughout the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Numerous studies point to the threat global warming poses to the timing and magnitude of snow accumulation and melt. But analyses focused on snow supply do not show where changes to snowmelt runoff are likely to present the most pressing adaptation challenges, given sub-annual patterns of human water consumption and water availability from rainfall. We identify the NH basins where present spring and summer snowmelt has the greatest potential to supply the human water demand that would otherwise be unmet by instantaneous rainfall runoff. Using a multi-model ensemble of climate change projections, we find that these basins - which together have a present population of approx. 2 billion people - are exposed to a 67% risk of decreased snow supply this coming century. Further, in the multi-model mean, 68 basins (with a present population of more than 300 million people) transition from having sufficient rainfall runoff to meet all present human water demand to having insufficient rainfall runoff. However, internal climate variability creates irreducible uncertainty in the projected future trends in snow resource potential, with about 90% of snow-sensitive basins showing potential for either increases or decreases over the near-term decades. Our results emphasize the importance of snow for fulfilling human water demand in many NH basins, and highlight the need to account for the full range of internal climate variability in developing robust climate risk management decisions.

Water advisory demand evaluation and resource toolkit

OpenAIRE

Paluszczyszyn, D.; Illya, S.; Goodyer, E.; Kubrycht, T.; Ambler, M.

2016-01-01

Cities are living organisms, 24h / 7day, with demands on resources and outputs. Water is a key resource whose management has not kept pace with modern urban life. Demand for clean water and loads on waste water no longer fit diurnal patterns; and they are impacted by events that are outside the normal range of parameters that are taken account of in water management. This feasibility study will determine how the application of computational intelligence can be used to analyse a mix of dat...

A model to assess water tariffs as part of water demand management

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Keywords: water demand management, price elasticity, change in water tariff, block tariff, WC/WDM model. INTRODUCTION ... ever developed for a 6-block pricing structure and allows for limited available input data from ..... Payment Strategies and Price Elasticity of Demand for Water for. Different revenue Groups in Three ...

Water Demand Management Policy Brief No

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Bob Stanley

Fair share: Water Demand Management can help provide fair access to water for the poor. Water Policy. Brief no.2 ... management (WDM) can help spread water more equitably, providing a measure of opportunity, security and ... improving health and quality of life for families. WDM measures can improve the efficiency of.

Demand side management in South Africa at industrial residence water heating systems using in line water heating methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rankin, R.; Rousseau, P.G.

2008-01-01

The South African electrical utility, ESKOM, currently focuses its demand side management (DSM) initiatives on controlling electrical load between 18:00 and 20:00 each day, which is the utility's peak demand period. Funding is provided to energy service companies (ESCo's) to implement projects that can achieve load shifting out of this period. This paper describes how an improved in line water heating concept developed in previous studies was implemented into several real life industrial sanitary water heating systems to obtain the DSM load shift required by ESKOM. Measurements from a selection of these plants are provided to illustrate the significant load reductions that are being achieved during 18:00-20:00. The measured results also show that the peak load reduction is achieved without adversely affecting the availability of sufficient hot water to the persons using the showering and washing facilities served by the water heating system. A very good correlation also exists between these measured results and simulations that were done beforehand to predict the DSM potential of the project. The in line water heater concept provides an improved solution for DSM at sanitary water heating systems due to the stratified manner in which hot water is supplied to the tanks. This provides an improved hot water supply to users when compared to conventional in tank heating systems, even with load shifting being done. It also improves the storage efficiency of a plant, thereby allowing the available storage capacity of a plant to be utilized to its full extent for load shifting purposes

Forecasting urban water demand: A meta-regression analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Sebri, Maamar

2016-12-01

Water managers and planners require accurate water demand forecasts over the short-, medium- and long-term for many purposes. These range from assessing water supply needs over spatial and temporal patterns to optimizing future investments and planning future allocations across competing sectors. This study surveys the empirical literature on the urban water demand forecasting using the meta-analytical approach. Specifically, using more than 600 estimates, a meta-regression analysis is conducted to identify explanations of cross-studies variation in accuracy of urban water demand forecasting. Our study finds that accuracy depends significantly on study characteristics, including demand periodicity, modeling method, forecasting horizon, model specification and sample size. The meta-regression results remain robust to different estimators employed as well as to a series of sensitivity checks performed. The importance of these findings lies in the conclusions and implications drawn out for regulators and policymakers and for academics alike. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Optimised control and pipe burst detection by water demand forecasting

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bakker, M.

2014-01-01

Water demand forecasting The total water demand in an area is the sum of the water demands of all individual domestic and industrial consumers in that area. These consumers behave in repetitive daily, weekly and annual patterns, and the same repetitive patterns can be observed in the drinking water

Tapping Alternatives: The Benefits of Managing Urban Water Demands.

Science.gov (United States)

Dziegielewski, Benedykt; Baumann, Duane D.

1992-01-01

Presents the California plan for water demand management. Water conservation techniques are used to balance demand with supply. Discusses the implementation process: (1) water-use and service area analysis; (2) water-use forecasts; (3) benefit-cost analysis; (4) and development of a long-term water management plan. (17 references) (MCO)

Modelling Per Capita Water Demand Change to Support System Planning

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia, M. E.; Islam, S.

2016-12-01

Water utilities have a number of levers to influence customer water usage. These include levers to proactively slow demand growth over time such as building and landscape codes as well as levers to decrease demands quickly in response to water stress including price increases, education campaigns, water restrictions, and incentive programs. Even actions aimed at short term reductions can result in long term water usage declines when substantial changes are made in water efficiency, as in incentives for fixture replacement or turf removal, or usage patterns such as permanent lawn watering restrictions. Demand change is therefore linked to hydrological conditions and to the effects of past management decisions - both typically included in water supply planning models. Yet, demand is typically incorporated exogenously using scenarios or endogenously using only price, though utilities also use rules and incentives issued in response to water stress and codes specifying standards for new construction to influence water usage. Explicitly including these policy levers in planning models enables concurrent testing of infrastructure and policy strategies and illuminates interactions between the two. The City of Las Vegas is used as a case study to develop and demonstrate this modeling approach. First, a statistical analysis of system data was employed to rule out alternate hypotheses of per capita demand decrease such as changes in population density and economic structure. Next, four demand sub-models were developed including one baseline model in which demand is a function of only price. The sub-models were then calibrated and tested using monthly data from 1997 to 2012. Finally, the best performing sub-model was integrated with a full supply and demand model. The results highlight the importance of both modeling water demand dynamics endogenously and taking a broader view of the variables influencing demand change.

Trading the Economic Value of Unsatisfied Municipal Water Demand

Science.gov (United States)

Telfah, Dua'a. B.; Minciardi, Riccardo; Roth, Giorgio

2018-06-01

Modelling and optimization techniques for water resources allocation are proposed to identify the economic value of the unsatisfied municipal water demand against demands emerging from other sectors. While this is always an important step in integrated water resource management perspective, it became crucial for water scarce Countries. In fact, since the competition for the resource is high, they are in crucial need to trade values which will help them in satisfying their policies and needs. In this framework, hydro-economic, social equity and environmental constraints need to be satisfied. In the present study, a hydro-economic decision model based on optimization schemes has been developed for water resources allocation, that enable the evaluation of the economic cost of a deficiency in fulfilling the municipal demand. Moreover, the model enables efficient water resources management, satisfying the demand and proposing additional water resources options. The formulated model is designed to maximize the demand satisfaction and minimize water production cost subject to system priorities, preferences and constraints. The demand priorities are defined based on the effect of demand dissatisfaction, while hydrogeological and physical characteristics of the resources are embedded as constraints in the optimization problem. The application to the City of Amman is presented. Amman is the Capital City of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, a Country located in the south-eastern area of the Mediterranean, on the East Bank of the Jordan River. The main challenge for Jordan, that threat the development and prosperity of all sectors, is the extreme water scarcity. In fact, Jordan is classified as semi-arid to arid region with limited financial resources and unprecedented population growth. While the easy solution directly goes to the simple but expensive approach to cover the demand, case study results show that the proposed model plays a major role in providing directions to

Trading the Economic Value of Unsatisfied Municipal Water Demand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. B. Telfah

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Modelling and optimization techniques for water resources allocation are proposed to identify the economic value of the unsatisfied municipal water demand against demands emerging from other sectors. While this is always an important step in integrated water resource management perspective, it became crucial for water scarce Countries. In fact, since the competition for the resource is high, they are in crucial need to trade values which will help them in satisfying their policies and needs. In this framework, hydro-economic, social equity and environmental constraints need to be satisfied. In the present study, a hydro-economic decision model based on optimization schemes has been developed for water resources allocation, that enable the evaluation of the economic cost of a deficiency in fulfilling the municipal demand. Moreover, the model enables efficient water resources management, satisfying the demand and proposing additional water resources options. The formulated model is designed to maximize the demand satisfaction and minimize water production cost subject to system priorities, preferences and constraints. The demand priorities are defined based on the effect of demand dissatisfaction, while hydrogeological and physical characteristics of the resources are embedded as constraints in the optimization problem. The application to the City of Amman is presented. Amman is the Capital City of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, a Country located in the south-eastern area of the Mediterranean, on the East Bank of the Jordan River. The main challenge for Jordan, that threat the development and prosperity of all sectors, is the extreme water scarcity. In fact, Jordan is classified as semi-arid to arid region with limited financial resources and unprecedented population growth. While the easy solution directly goes to the simple but expensive approach to cover the demand, case study results show that the proposed model plays a major role in

Demand of natural gas; methodology for their projection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Unidad de Planeacion Minero Energetica, UPME

1999-01-01

The objective of integrated energetic planning process, is to propose political that assure the full supply of energy in the country, at competitive costs and with a rational use of the resources. Of there that it requires the periodic analysis of the information on the sectors of energy supplies and demand and on their interrelation with the economic, social and environmental environment. Among the variables that should stay upgraded during the planning process, it stands out the energy demand. The fact of to evaluate and to project demands goes to predict the consumer's of energy low uncertain conditions future behavior that it can affect the prospective results, so much in the short term as in the long term. One of the alternatives to face the uncertainty has more than enough future events it consists on building scenarios in those that values different from the variables that are considered with more incidences in the projected results participate. In the case of the energy, the variables that, generally, they are considered determinant, are the economic growth, the prices variation, the technological developments, the substitution among energy, the change of patterns of the population's consumption and the rational use of the energy. The application of the methodology of scenarios allows to settle down, for this case, bands of projection of the energy demand, in global form or for each energy type, specify in each sector and for each use. Once it is had the projection band, it is possible to determine the half growth of long term. The energy planning should respond in immediate form to the scenario changes, through the revision of the state projections. A frequent error, typical of the old sub-sector planning, consists on maintaining, in an irrational way, established growth percentages, when they intend new scenarios of economic growth

How to meet the increasing demands of water, food and energy in the future?

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Haiyun; Chen, Ji; Sivakumar, Bellie; Peart, Mervyn

2017-04-01

Regarded as a driving force in water, food and energy demands, the world's population has been increasing rapidly since the beginning of the 20th century. According to the medium-growth projection scenario of the United Nations, the world's population will reach 9.5 billion by 2050. In response to the continuously growing population during this century, water, food and energy demands have also been increasing rapidly, and social problems (e.g., water, food, and energy shortages) will be most likely to occur, especially if no proper management strategies are adopted. Then, how to meet the increasing demands of water, food and energy in the future? This study focuses on the sustainable developments of population, water, food, energy and dams, and the significances of this study can be concluded as follows: First, we reveal the close association between dams and social development through analysing the related data for the period 1960-2010, and argue that construction of additional large dams will have to be considered as one of the best available options to meet the increasing water, food and energy demands in the future. We conduct the projections of global water, food and energy consumptions and dam development for the period 2010-2050, and the results show that, compared to 2010, the total water, food and energy consumptions in 2050 will increase by 20%, 34% and 37%, respectively. Moreover, it is projected that additional 4,340 dams will be constructed by 2050 all over the world. Second, we analyse the current situation of global water scarcity based on the related data representing water resources availability (per capita available water resources), dam development (the number of dams), and the level of economic development (per capita gross domestic product). At the global scale, water scarcity exists in more than 70% of the countries around the world, including 43 countries suffering from economic water scarcity and 129 countries suffering from physical water

Mining residential water and electricity demand data in Southern California to inform demand management strategies

Science.gov (United States)

Cominola, A.; Spang, E. S.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.; Loge, F. J.; Lund, J. R.

2016-12-01

Demand side management strategies are key to meet future water and energy demands in urban contexts, promote water and energy efficiency in the residential sector, provide customized services and communications to consumers, and reduce utilities' costs. Smart metering technologies allow gathering high temporal and spatial resolution water and energy consumption data and support the development of data-driven models of consumers' behavior. Modelling and predicting resource consumption behavior is essential to inform demand management. Yet, analyzing big, smart metered, databases requires proper data mining and modelling techniques, in order to extract useful information supporting decision makers to spot end uses towards which water and energy efficiency or conservation efforts should be prioritized. In this study, we consider the following research questions: (i) how is it possible to extract representative consumers' personalities out of big smart metered water and energy data? (ii) are residential water and energy consumption profiles interconnected? (iii) Can we design customized water and energy demand management strategies based on the knowledge of water- energy demand profiles and other user-specific psychographic information? To address the above research questions, we contribute a data-driven approach to identify and model routines in water and energy consumers' behavior. We propose a novel customer segmentation procedure based on data-mining techniques. Our procedure consists of three steps: (i) extraction of typical water-energy consumption profiles for each household, (ii) profiles clustering based on their similarity, and (iii) evaluation of the influence of candidate explanatory variables on the identified clusters. The approach is tested onto a dataset of smart metered water and energy consumption data from over 1000 households in South California. Our methodology allows identifying heterogeneous groups of consumers from the studied sample, as well as

Infrastructure sufficiency in meeting water demand under climate-induced socio-hydrological transition in the urbanizing Capibaribe River basin - Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Ribeiro Neto, A.; Scott, C. A.; Lima, E. A.; Montenegro, S. M. G. L.; Cirilo, J. A.

2014-09-01

Water availability for a range of human uses will increasingly be affected by climate change, especially in the arid and semiarid tropics. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the infrastructure sufficiency in meeting water demand under climate-induced socio-hydrological transition in the Capibaribe River basin (CRB). The basin has experienced spatial and sectoral (agriculture-to-urban) reconfiguration of water demands. Human settlements that were once dispersed, relying on intermittent sources of surface water, are now larger and more spatially concentrated, which increases water-scarcity effects. Based on the application of linked hydrologic and water-resources models using precipitation and temperature projections of the IPCC SRES (Special Report: Emissions Scenarios) A1B scenario, a reduction in rainfall of 26.0% translated to streamflow reduction of 60.0%. We used simulations from four members of the HadCM3 (UK Met Office Hadley Centre) perturbed physics ensemble, in which a single model structure is used and perturbations are introduced to the physical parameterization schemes in the model (Chou et al., 2012). We considered that the change of the water availability in the basin in the future scenarios must drive the water management and the development of adaptation strategies that will manage the water demand. Several adaptive responses are considered, including water-loss reductions, wastewater collection and reuse, and rainwater collection cisterns, which together have potential to reduce future water demand by 23.0%. This study demonstrates the vulnerabilities of the infrastructure system during socio-hydrological transition in response to hydroclimatic and demand variabilities in the CRB and also indicates the differential spatial impacts and vulnerability of multiple uses of water to changes over time. The simulations showed that the measures proposed and the water from interbasin transfer project of the São Francisco River had a positive

Remote sensing inputs to water demand modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Estes, J. E.; Jensen, J. R.; Tinney, L. R.; Rector, M.

1975-01-01

In an attempt to determine the ability of remote sensing techniques to economically generate data required by water demand models, the Geography Remote Sensing Unit, in conjunction with the Kern County Water Agency of California, developed an analysis model. As a result it was determined that agricultural cropland inventories utilizing both high altitude photography and LANDSAT imagery can be conducted cost effectively. In addition, by using average irrigation application rates in conjunction with cropland data, estimates of agricultural water demand can be generated. However, more accurate estimates are possible if crop type, acreage, and crop specific application rates are employed. An analysis of the effect of saline-alkali soils on water demand in the study area is also examined. Finally, reference is made to the detection and delineation of water tables that are perched near the surface by semi-permeable clay layers. Soil salinity prediction, automated crop identification on a by-field basis, and a potential input to the determination of zones of equal benefit taxation are briefly touched upon.

Regional demand and supply projections for outdoor recreation

Science.gov (United States)

Donald B. K. English; Carter J. Betz; J. Mark Young; John C. Bergstrom; H. Ken Cordell

1993-01-01

This paper develops regional recreation supply and demand projections, by combining coefficients from the national 1989 RPA Assessment models with regional regressor values. Regional recreation opportunity estimates also are developed, based on regional travel behavior. Results show important regional variations in projections of recreation opportunities, trip supply,...

Understanding errors in EIA projections of energy demand

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fischer, Carolyn; Herrnstadt, Evan; Morgenstern, Richard [Resources for the Future, 1616 P St. NW, Washington, DC 20036 (United States)

2009-08-15

This paper investigates the potential for systematic errors in the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) widely used Annual Energy Outlook, focusing on the near- to mid-term projections of energy demand. Based on analysis of the EIA's 22-year projection record, we find a fairly modest but persistent tendency to underestimate total energy demand by an average of 2 percent per year after controlling for projection errors in gross domestic product, oil prices, and heating/cooling degree days. For 14 individual fuels/consuming sectors routinely reported by the EIA, we observe a great deal of directional consistency in the errors over time, ranging up to 7 percent per year. Electric utility renewables, electric utility natural gas, transportation distillate, and residential electricity show significant biases on average. Projections for certain other sectors have significant unexplained errors for selected time horizons. Such independent evaluation can be useful for validating analytic efforts and for prioritizing future model revisions. (author)

BC SEA Solar Hot Water Acceleration project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Harris, N.C. [BC Sustainable Energy Association, Victoria, BC (Canada)

2005-07-01

Although solar hot water heating is an environmentally responsible technology that reduces fossil fuel consumption and helps mitigate global climate change, there are many barriers to its widespread use. Each year, domestic water heating contributes nearly 6 million tonnes of carbon dioxide towards Canada's greenhouse gas emissions. The installation of solar water heaters can eliminate up to 2 tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions per household. The BC SEA Solar Hot Water Acceleration project was launched in an effort to demonstrate that the technology has the potential to be widely used in homes and businesses across British Columbia. One of the main barriers to the widespread use of solar hot water heating is the initial cost of the system. Lack of public awareness and understanding of the technology are other barriers. However, other jurisdictions around the world have demonstrated that the use of renewables are the product of conscious policy decisions, including low-cost financing and other subsidies that have created demand for these technologies. To this end, the BC SEA Solar Hot Water Acceleration project will test the potential for the rapid acceleration of solar water heating in pilot communities where barriers are removed. The objective of the project is to install 100 solar water systems in homes and 25 in businesses and institutions in communities in British Columbia by July 2007. The project will explore the financial barriers to the installation of solar hot water systems and produce an action plan to reduce these barriers. In addition to leading by example, the project will help the solar energy marketplace, mitigate climate change and improve energy efficiency.

Application in appraising inter-basin water transfer projects

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2013-07-08

Jul 8, 2013 ... transfer projects (IBTs) with significant pumping costs overestimates ... Those findings are taken further and it is established that the URV, as currently applied, fails as a suit- .... of measures such as water demand management and catchment .... It is standard practice to also do a sensitivity analysis round.

A high turndown, ultra low emission low swirl burner for natural gas, on-demand water heaters

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rapp, Vi H. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Cheng, Robert K. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Therkelsen, Peter L. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

2017-06-13

Previous research has shown that on-demand water heaters are, on average, approximately 37% more efficient than storage water heaters. However, approximately 98% of water heaters in the U.S. use storage water heaters while the remaining 2% are on-demand. A major market barrier to deployment of on-demand water heaters is their high retail cost, which is due in part to their reliance on multi-stage burner banks that require complex electronic controls. This project aims to research and develop a cost-effective, efficient, ultra-low emission burner for next generation natural gas on-demand water heaters in residential and commercial buildings. To meet these requirements, researchers at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) are adapting and testing the low-swirl burner (LSB) technology for commercially available on-demand water heaters. In this report, a low-swirl burner is researched, developed, and evaluated to meet targeted on-demand water heater performance metrics. Performance metrics for a new LSB design are identified by characterizing performance of current on-demand water heaters using published literature and technical specifications, and through experimental evaluations that measure fuel consumption and emissions output over a range of operating conditions. Next, target metrics and design criteria for the LSB are used to create six 3D printed prototypes for preliminary investigations. Prototype designs that proved the most promising were fabricated out of metal and tested further to evaluate the LSB’s full performance potential. After conducting a full performance evaluation on two designs, we found that one LSB design is capable of meeting or exceeding almost all the target performance metrics for on-demand water heaters. Specifically, this LSB demonstrated flame stability when operating from 4.07 kBTU/hr up to 204 kBTU/hr (50:1 turndown), compliance with SCAQMD Rule 1146.2 (14 ng/J or 20 ppm NOX @ 3% O2), and lower CO emissions than state

Co-Adapting Water Demand and Supply to Changing Climate in Agricultural Water Systems, A Case Study in Northern Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Giuliani, M.; Li, Y.; Mainardi, M.; Arias Munoz, C.; Castelletti, A.; Gandolfi, C.

2013-12-01

Exponentially growing water demands and increasing uncertainties in the hydrologic cycle due to changes in climate and land use will challenge water resources planning and management in the next decade. Improving agricultural productivity is particularly critical, being this sector the one characterized by the highest water demand. Moreover, to meet projected growth in human population and per-capita food demand, agricultural production will have to significantly increase in the next decades, even though water availability is expected to decrease due to climate change impacts. Agricultural systems are called to adapt their strategies (e.g., changing crop patterns and the corresponding water demand, or maximizing the efficiency in the water supply modifying irrigation scheduling and adopting high efficiency irrigation techniques) in order to re-optimize the use of limited water resources. Although many studies have assessed climate change impacts on agricultural practices and water management, most of them assume few scenarios of water demand or water supply separately, while an analysis of their reciprocal feedbacks is still missing. Moreover, current practices are generally established according to historical agreements and normative constraints and, in the absence of dramatic failures, the shift toward more efficient water management is not easily achievable. In this work, we propose to activate an information loop between farmers and water managers to improve the effectiveness of agricultural water management practices by matching the needs of the farmers with the design of water supply strategies. The proposed approach is tested on a real-world case study, namely the Lake Como serving the Muzza-Bassa Lodigiana irrigation district (Italy). A distributed-parameter, dynamic model of the system allows to simulate crop growth and the final yield over a range of hydro-climatic conditions, irrigation strategies and water-related stresses. The spatial component of the

Pollution source localization in an urban water supply network based on dynamic water demand.

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, Xuesong; Zhu, Zhixin; Li, Tian

2017-10-27

Urban water supply networks are susceptible to intentional, accidental chemical, and biological pollution, which pose a threat to the health of consumers. In recent years, drinking-water pollution incidents have occurred frequently, seriously endangering social stability and security. The real-time monitoring for water quality can be effectively implemented by placing sensors in the water supply network. However, locating the source of pollution through the data detection obtained by water quality sensors is a challenging problem. The difficulty lies in the limited number of sensors, large number of water supply network nodes, and dynamic user demand for water, which leads the pollution source localization problem to an uncertainty, large-scale, and dynamic optimization problem. In this paper, we mainly study the dynamics of the pollution source localization problem. Previous studies of pollution source localization assume that hydraulic inputs (e.g., water demand of consumers) are known. However, because of the inherent variability of urban water demand, the problem is essentially a fluctuating dynamic problem of consumer's water demand. In this paper, the water demand is considered to be stochastic in nature and can be described using Gaussian model or autoregressive model. On this basis, an optimization algorithm is proposed based on these two dynamic water demand change models to locate the pollution source. The objective of the proposed algorithm is to find the locations and concentrations of pollution sources that meet the minimum between the analogue and detection values of the sensor. Simulation experiments were conducted using two different sizes of urban water supply network data, and the experimental results were compared with those of the standard genetic algorithm.

Non-residential water demand model validated with extensive measurements and surveys

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pieterse-Quirijns, I.; Blokker, E.J.M.; van der Blom, E.C.; Vreeburg, J.H.G.

2013-01-01

Existing Dutch guidelines for the design of the drinking water and hot water system of nonresidential buildings are based on outdated assumptions on peak water demand or on unfounded assumptions on hot water demand. They generally overestimate peak demand values required for the design of an

Evaluation of Representative Smart Grid Investment Project Technologies: Demand Response

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fuller, Jason C.; Prakash Kumar, Nirupama; Bonebrake, Christopher A.

2012-02-14

This document is one of a series of reports estimating the benefits of deploying technologies similar to those implemented on the Smart Grid Investment Grant (SGIG) projects. Four technical reports cover the various types of technologies deployed in the SGIG projects, distribution automation, demand response, energy storage, and renewables integration. A fifth report in the series examines the benefits of deploying these technologies on a national level. This technical report examines the impacts of a limited number of demand response technologies and implementations deployed in the SGIG projects.

From hydrological regimes to water use regimes: influence of the type of habitat on drinking water demand dynamics in alpine tourist resorts.

Science.gov (United States)

Calianno, Martin

2017-04-01

are observed. This typology of water demand regimes is at tool that can be developed to reproduce the temporal dynamics of water demands, when knowing the characteristics of habitat in a given region. References: Calianno M, Reynard E, Milano M (in prep). Water use cycle in tourist mountain territories: water demand basins and regimes. To be submitted to Water Resources Management. Calianno M, Reynard E, Milano M, Buchs A (submitted). Quantifier les usages de l'eau : concepts, terminologie et confusions. Submitted to VertigO. Grouillet B, Fabre J, Ruelland D, Dezetter A (2015) Historical reconstruction and 2050 projections of water demand under anthropogenic and climate changes in two contrasted mediterranean catchments. J Hydrol 522:684-696. Reynard E, Bonriposi M, Graefe O, Homewood C, Huss M, Kauzlaric M, Liniger H, Rey E, Rist S, Schädler B, Schneider F, Weingartner R (2014) Interdisciplinary assessment of complex regional water systems and their future evolution: how socioeconomic drivers can matter more than climate. WIREs Water 1(4):413-426.

Hawaiian Electric Company Demand Response Roadmap Project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Levy, Roger [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Kiliccote, Sila [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

2013-01-12

The objective of this project was to develop a “roadmap” to guide the Hawaiian Electric Company (HECO) demand response (DR) planning and implementation in support of the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative (HCEI) 70% clean energy goal by 2030.

Industrial water demand management and cleaner production ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Processes and systems using water today are being subjected to increasingly stringent environmental regulations on effluents and there is growing demand for fresh water. In Morocco, consumption of water by industries is estimated in 1994 at 1 billion m3, the drinking water constitutes 4%. Water used in the food and drink ...

Projected Demand and Potential Impacts to the National Airspace System of Autonomous, Electric, On-Demand Small Aircraft

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Jeremy C.; Viken, Jeffrey K.; Guerreiro, Nelson M.; Dollyhigh, Samuel M.; Fenbert, James W.; Hartman, Christopher L.; Kwa, Teck-Seng; Moore, Mark D.

2012-01-01

Electric propulsion and autonomy are technology frontiers that offer tremendous potential to achieve low operating costs for small-aircraft. Such technologies enable simple and safe to operate vehicles that could dramatically improve regional transportation accessibility and speed through point-to-point operations. This analysis develops an understanding of the potential traffic volume and National Airspace System (NAS) capacity for small on-demand aircraft operations. Future demand projections use the Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM), a tool suite developed by NASA and the Transportation Laboratory of Virginia Polytechnic Institute. Demand projections from TSAM contain the mode of travel, number of trips and geographic distribution of trips. For this study, the mode of travel can be commercial aircraft, automobile and on-demand aircraft. NASA's Airspace Concept Evaluation System (ACES) is used to assess NAS impact. This simulation takes a schedule that includes all flights: commercial passenger and cargo; conventional General Aviation and on-demand small aircraft, and operates them in the simulated NAS. The results of this analysis projects very large trip numbers for an on-demand air transportation system competitive with automobiles in cost per passenger mile. The significance is this type of air transportation can enhance mobility for communities that currently lack access to commercial air transportation. Another significant finding is that the large numbers of operations can have an impact on the current NAS infrastructure used by commercial airlines and cargo operators, even if on-demand traffic does not use the 28 airports in the Continental U.S. designated as large hubs by the FAA. Some smaller airports will experience greater demand than their current capacity allows and will require upgrading. In addition, in future years as demand grows and vehicle performance improves other non-conventional facilities such as short runways incorporated into

Water Demand Management for Social Justice

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Bob Stanley

with men, in the design and management of water projects enhances the intended results of projects and contributes to ... the area of domestic water supply and sanitation. There is .... mandate reducing the loss of quantity or quality of water as ...

Impact of oil prices, economic diversification policies and energy conservation programs on the electricity and water demands in Kuwait

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wood, Michael; Alsayegh, Osamah A.

2014-01-01

This paper describes the influences of oil revenue and government's policies toward economic developments and energy efficiency on the electricity and water demands. A Kuwait-specific electricity and water demand model was developed based on historic data of oil income, gross domestic product (GDP), population and electric load and water demand over the past twelve years (1998–2010). Moreover, the model took into account the future mega projects, annual new connected loads and expected application of energy conservation programs. It was run under six circumstances representing the combinations of three oil income scenarios and two government action policies toward economic diversification and energy conservation. The first government policy is the status quo with respect to economic diversification and applying energy conservation programs. The second policy scenario is the proactive strategy of raising the production of the non-oil sector revenue and enforcing legislations toward energy demand side management and conservation. In the upcoming 20 years, the average rates of change of the electric load and water demand increase are 0.13 GW and 3.0 MIGD, respectively, per US dollar oil price increase. Moreover, through proactive policy, the rates of average load and water demand decrease are 0.13 GW and 2.9 MIGD per year, respectively. - Highlights: • Kuwait-specific electricity and water demand model is presented. • Strong association between oil income and electricity and water demands. • Rate of change of electric load per US dollar oil price change is 0.13 GW. • Rate of change of water demand per US dollar oil price change is 3.0 MIGD. • By 2030, efficiency lowers electric load and water demand by 10 and 6%, respectively

Blue water scarcity and the economic impacts of future agricultural trade and demand

Science.gov (United States)

Schmitz, Christoph; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Gerten, Dieter; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Bodirsky, Benjamin; Biewald, Anne; Popp, Alexander

2013-06-01

An increasing demand for agricultural goods affects the pressure on global water resources over the coming decades. In order to quantify these effects, we have developed a new agroeconomic water scarcity indicator, considering explicitly economic processes in the agricultural system. The indicator is based on the water shadow price generated by an economic land use model linked to a global vegetation-hydrology model. Irrigation efficiency is implemented as a dynamic input depending on the level of economic development. We are able to simulate the heterogeneous distribution of water supply and agricultural water demand for irrigation through the spatially explicit representation of agricultural production. This allows in identifying regional hot spots of blue water scarcity and explicit shadow prices for water. We generate scenarios based on moderate policies regarding future trade liberalization and the control of livestock-based consumption, dependent on different population and gross domestic product (GDP) projections. Results indicate increased water scarcity in the future, especially in South Asia, the Middle East, and north Africa. In general, water shadow prices decrease with increasing liberalization, foremost in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East. Policies to reduce livestock consumption in developed countries not only lower the domestic pressure on water but also alleviate water scarcity to a large extent in developing countries. It is shown that one of the two policy options would be insufficient for most regions to retain water scarcity in 2045 on levels comparable to 2005.

Economic Value Approach to Industrial Water Demand Management, A Case Study of Chemical Plants

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

morteza tahami pour zarandi

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Limitations in water supply to meet the increasing demand have encouraged both planners and researchers to focus attention on water demand management, in which such economic tools as the water pricing system play a major role. A fundamental component of the pricing system is the estimation of the economic value of water, which reflects a firm’s maximum affordable water price or the ultimate elasticity of industrial water. The present study was conducted to estimate the economic value of water for basic chemical plants, excluding fertilizers and nitrogen compounds (code 2411, representing the four-digit ISIC industrial codes which account for about 14% of the total industrial water consumption. The econometric method of production function within the framework of panel data and the residual method were used. Data were collected from the Census of medium-sized businesses carried out by the Statistical Center of Iran over the period 1997–2013.  Results showed that one cubic meter of water allocated to the plants surveyed creates a value of 3,7071 Rials, which shows a large gap with the current purchase price of 5685 Rials. Moreover, it was found that the present water prices account for only about 1.3 percent of the total production cost of basic chemicals, excluding fertilizers and nitrogen compounds. It may, thus, be concluded that it is reasonable to increase the present water tariffs and discriminate among the various manufacturing codes by differences in tariffs in order to achieve water demand management goals. Finally, the information emerging from the study may be exploited to improve the revenues earned by water authorities or to carry out feasibility studies of industrial water development projects.

Income-based projections of water footprint of food consumption in Uzbekistan

Science.gov (United States)

Djanibekov, Nodir; Frohberg, Klaus; Djanibekov, Utkur

2013-11-01

Assessing future water requirements for feeding the growing population of Central Asia can improve understanding of the projected water supply scenarios in the region. Future water requirements will be partially determined by the dietary habits of the populations, and are thus responsive to significant variation of income levels. Using Uzbekistan as an example, this study projects the water footprints of income driven changes on the population's diet in Central Asia. To reveal the influence of large income changes on dietary habits a Normalized Quadratic-Quadratic Expenditure System was calibrated and applied to data from 2009. The national water footprints of food consumption in Uzbekistan were projected until 2034 by applying the parameterized demand system to estimate the respective water footprint values. The results showed that for Uzbekistan the projected increase in the food consumption water footprint would be primarily linked to income growth rather than population growth. Due to the high water footprint of common food products, the composition of the population's diet, and responsiveness to income, economic growth is expected to put greater pressure on water resources in Uzbekistan unless proper measures are undertaken.

Mitigating the impact of swimming pools on domestic water demand

African Journals Online (AJOL)

need to implement desalination schemes by ensuring water is used in in a 'fit for purpose' manner. This study therefore aims to better understand the impact that pools have on residential water demand through the analysis of metered water demand records and end-use modelling. The study site was the Liesbeek.

A Holistic ICT Solution to Improve Matching between Supply and Demand over the Water Supply Distribution Chain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gabriel Anzaldi

2014-12-01

Full Text Available While many water management tools exist, these systems are not usually interconnected and therefore cannot communicate between one another, preventing Integrated Water Resources Management to be fully achieved. This paper presents the solution proposed by WatERP project* where a novel solution enables better matching between water supply and demand from holistic perspective. Subsystems that control the production, management and consumption of water will be interconnected through both information architecture and intelligent infrastructure. The main outcome will consist of, a web-based Open Management Platform integrating near real-time knowledge on water supplies and demand, from sources to users, across geographic and organizational scales and supported by a knowledge base where information will be structured in water management ontology to ensure interoperability and maximize usability. WatERP will thus provide a major contribution to: 1 Improve coordination among actors, 2 Foster behavioural change, 3 Reduce water and energy consumption, 4 Optimize water accountability.

China's rising hydropower demand challenges water sector.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Junguo; Zhao, Dandan; Gerbens-Leenes, P W; Guan, Dabo

2015-07-09

Demand for hydropower is increasing, yet the water footprints (WFs) of reservoirs and hydropower, and their contributions to water scarcity, are poorly understood. Here, we calculate reservoir WFs (freshwater that evaporates from reservoirs) and hydropower WFs (the WF of hydroelectricity) in China based on data from 875 representative reservoirs (209 with power plants). In 2010, the reservoir WF totaled 27.9 × 10(9) m(3) (Gm(3)), or 22% of China's total water consumption. Ignoring the reservoir WF seriously underestimates human water appropriation. The reservoir WF associated with industrial, domestic and agricultural WFs caused water scarcity in 6 of the 10 major Chinese river basins from 2 to 12 months annually. The hydropower WF was 6.6 Gm(3) yr(-1) or 3.6 m(3) of water to produce a GJ (10(9) J) of electricity. Hydropower is a water intensive energy carrier. As a response to global climate change, the Chinese government has promoted a further increase in hydropower energy by 70% by 2020 compared to 2012. This energy policy imposes pressure on available freshwater resources and increases water scarcity. The water-energy nexus requires strategic and coordinated implementations of hydropower development among geographical regions, as well as trade-off analysis between rising energy demand and water use sustainability.

China's rising hydropower demand challenges water sector

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Liu, Junguo; Zhao, Dandan; Gerbens-Leenes, Winnie; Guan, Dabo

2015-01-01

Demand for hydropower is increasing, yet the water footprints (WFs) of reservoirs and hydropower, and their contributions to water scarcity, are poorly understood. Here, we calculate reservoir WFs (freshwater that evaporates from reservoirs) and hydropower WFs (the WF of hydroelectricity) in China

Future water supply and demand in response to climate change and agricultural expansion in Texas

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, K.; Zhou, T.; Gao, H.; Huang, M.

2016-12-01

With ongoing global environmental change and an increasing population, it is challenging (to say the least) to understand the complex interactions of irrigation and reservoir systems. Irrigation is critical to agricultural production and food security, and is a vital component of Texas' agricultural economy. Agricultural irrigation currently accounts for about 60% of total water demand in Texas, and recent occurrences of severe droughts has brought attention to the availability and use of water in the future. In this study, we aim to assess future agricultural irrigation water demand, and to estimate how changes in the fraction of crop irrigated land will affect future water availability in Texas, which has the largest farm area and the highest value of livestock production in the United States. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, which has been calibrated and validated over major Texas river basins during the historical period, is employed for this study. The VIC model, coupling with an irrigation scheme and a reservoir module, is adopted to simulate the water management and regulations. The evolution on agricultural land is also considered in the model as a changing fraction of crop for each grid cell. The reservoir module is calibrated and validated based on the historical (1915-2011) storage records of major reservoirs in Texas. The model is driven by statistically downscaled climate projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model ensembles at a spatial resolution of 1/8°. The lowest (RCP 2.6) and highest (RC P8.5) greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios are adopted for future projections to provide an estimate of uncertainty bounds. We expect that our results will be helpful to assist decision making related to reservoir operations and agricultural water planning for Texas under future climate and environmental changes.

Institutions for Effective Water Demand Management

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

2010-12-14

Dec 14, 2010 ... The paper also describes the state of South African WDM to highlight ... Download the PDF: Working Paper 4: Institutions for Effective Water Demand Management ​ ... Managing flood risk through collaborative governance.

Assessing the significance of climate and community factors on urban water demand

OpenAIRE

Md Mahmudul Haque; Prasanna Egodawatta; Ataur Rahman; Ashantha Goonetilleke

2015-01-01

Ensuring adequate water supply to urban areas is a challenging task due to factors such as rapid urban growth, increasing water demand and climate change. In developing a sustainable water supply system, it is important to identify the dominant water demand factors for any given water supply scheme. This paper applies principal components analysis to identify the factors that dominate residential water demand using the Blue Mountains Water Supply System in Australia as a case study. The resul...

GRI baseline projection of U.S. Energy supply and demand to 2010. 1991 edition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holtberg, P.D.; Woods, T.J.; Lihn, M.L.; McCabe, N.C.

1991-04-01

The report summarizes the 1991 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand and presents a series of summary tables, sectoral breakdowns of energy demand, and the natural gas supply and price trends. Appendixes include a discussion of the methodology and assumptions used to prepare the 1991 projection, a brief discussion of the potential for higher levels of gas demand, a description of industrial and commercial cogeneration, a description of the independent power producer (IPP) methodology and projection, a comparison of the 1991 edition with previous projections, and a discussion of additional data used in developing the projection

When the 'soft-path' gets hard: demand management and financial instability for water utilities

Science.gov (United States)

Zeff, H. B.; Characklis, G. W.

2014-12-01

In the past, cost benefit analysis (CBA) has been viewed as an effective means of evaluating water utility strategies, particularly those that were dependent on the construction of new supply infrastructure. As water utilities have begun to embrace 'soft-path' approaches as a way to reduce the need for supply-centric development, CBA fails to recognize some important financial incentives affected by reduced water consumption. Demand management, both as a short-term response to drought and in longer-term actions to accommodate demand growth, can introduce revenue risks that adversely affect a utility's ability to repay debt, re-invest in aging infrastructure, or maintain reserve funds for use in a short-term emergency. A utility that does not generate sufficient revenue to support these functions may be subject to credit rating downgrades, which in turn affect the interest rate it pays on its debt. Interest rates are a critical consideration for utility managers in the capital-intensive water sector, where debt payments for infrastructure often account for a large portion of a utility's overall costs. Even a small increase in interest rates can add millions of dollars to the cost of new infrastructure. Recent studies have demonstrated that demand management techniques can lead to significant revenue variability, and credit rating agencies have begun to take notice of drought response plans when evaluating water utility credit ratings, providing utilities with a disincentive to fully embrace soft-path approaches. This analysis examines the impact of demand management schemes on key credit rating metrics for a water utility in Raleigh, North Carolina. The utility's consumer base is currently experiencing rapid population growth, and demand management has the potential to reduce the dependence on costly new supply infrastructure but could lead to financial instability that will significantly increase the costs of financing future projects. This work analyzes how 'soft

Bridging the climate-induced water gap in the twenty-first century: adaptation support based on water supply, demand, adaptation and financing.

Science.gov (United States)

Straatsma, Menno; Droogers, Peter; Brandsma, Jaïrus; Buytaert, Wouter; Karssenberg, Derek; Van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Sutanudjaja, Edwin; Vitolo, Claudia; Schmitz, Oliver; Meijer, Karen; Van Aalst, Maaike; Bierkens, Marc

2014-05-01

Water scarcity affects large parts of the world. Over the course of the twenty-first century, water demand is likely to increase due to population growth and associated food production, and increased economic activity, while water supply is projected to decrease in many regions due to climate change. Despite recent studies that analyze the effect of climate change on water scarcity, e.g. using climate projections under representative concentration pathways (RCP) of the fifth assessment report of the IPCC (AR5), decision support for closing the water gap between now and 2100 does not exist at a meaningful scale and with a global coverage. In this study, we aimed (i) to assess the joint impact of climatic and socio-economic change on water scarcity, (ii) to integrate impact and potential adaptation in one workflow, (iii) to prioritize adaptation options to counteract water scarcity based on their financial, regional socio-economic and environmental implications, and (iv) to deliver all this information in an integrated user-friendly web-based service. To enable the combination of global coverage with local relevance, we aggregated all results for 1604 water provinces (food producing units) delineated in this study, which is five times smaller than previous food producing units. Water supply was computed using the PCR-GLOBWB hydrological and water resources model, parameterized at 5 arcminutes for the whole globe, excluding Antarctica and Greenland. We ran PCR-GLOBWB with a daily forcing derived from five different GCM models from the CMIP5 (GFDL-ESM2M, Hadgem2-ES, IPSL-CMA5-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, NorESM1-M) that were bias corrected using observation-based WATCH data between 1960-1999. For each of the models all four RCPs (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) were run, producing the ensemble of 20 future projections. The blue water supply was aggregated per month and per water province. Industrial, domestic and irrigation water demands were computed for a limited number of

Chemical oxygen demand (cod) attenuation of methyl red in water ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Chemical oxygen demand (cod) attenuation of methyl red in water using biocarbons obtained from Nipa palm leaves. ... eco-friendly and locally accessible biocarbon for mitigation of organic contaminants in water. Keywords: Chemical oxygen demand, biocarbon, methyl red, biodegradation, bioremediation, Nipa palm ...

Analysis of projected water availability with current basin management plan, Pajaro Valley, California

Science.gov (United States)

Hanson, Randall T.; Lockwood, Brian; Schmid, Wolfgang

2014-01-01

The projection and analysis of the Pajaro Valley Hydrologic Model (PVHM) 34 years into the future using MODFLOW with the Farm Process (MF-FMP) facilitates assessment of potential future water availability. The projection is facilitated by the integrated hydrologic model, MF-FMP that fully couples the simulation of the use and movement of water from precipitation, streamflow, runoff, groundwater flow, and consumption by natural and agricultural vegetation throughout the hydrologic system at all times. MF-FMP allows for more complete analysis of conjunctive-use water-resource systems than previously possible with MODFLOW by combining relevant aspects of the landscape with the groundwater and surface-water components. This analysis is accomplished using distributed cell-by-cell supply-constrained and demand-driven components across the landscape within “water-balance subregions” (WBS) comprised of one or more model cells that can represent a single farm, a group of farms, watersheds, or other hydrologic or geopolitical entities. Analysis of conjunctive use would be difficult without embedding the fully coupled supply-and-demand into a fully coupled simulation, and are difficult to estimate a priori.

GRI baseline projection of U.S. energy supply and demand to 2010. 1992 edition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holtberg, P.D.; Woods, T.J.; Lihn, M.L.; Koklauner, A.B.

1992-04-01

The annual GRI baseline projection is the result of a complex modeling effort that seeks to achieve an internally consistent energy supply and demand outlook across all energy sources and end-use demand sectors. The year's projection includes the adoption of a new petroleum refinery methodology, the incorporation of a new approach to determining electric utility generating capacity heat rates, the extensive update of both the residential and commercial databases and methodologies, and the continued update of the GRI Hydrocarbon Model. The report presents a series of summary tables, sectoral breakdowns of energy demand, and the natural gas supply and price trends. The appendices include a discussion of the methodology and assumptions used to prepare the 1992 edition of the projection, an analysis of the potential for higher levels of gas demand, a description of industrial and commercial cogeneration, a description of the independent power producer projection, a comparison of the 1992 edition of the projection with previous GRI projections, and a discussion of additional data used in developing the projection

Chicago's water market: Dynamics of demand, prices and scarcity rents

Science.gov (United States)

Ipe, V.C.; Bhagwat, S.B.

2002-01-01

Chicago and its suburbs are experiencing an increasing demand for water from a growing population and economy and may experience water scarcity in the near future. The Chicago metropolitan area has nearly depleted its groundwater resources to a point where interstate conflicts with Wisconsin could accompany an increased reliance on those sources. Further, the withdrawals from Lake Michigan is limited by the Supreme Court decree. The growing demand and indications of possible scarcity suggest a need to reexamine the pricing policies and the dynamics of demand. The study analyses the demand for water and develops estimates of scarcity rents for water in Chicago. The price and income elasticities computed at the means are -0.002 and 0.0002 respectively. The estimated scarcity rents ranges from $0.98 to $1.17 per thousand gallons. The results indicate that the current prices do not fully account for the scarcity rents and suggest a current rate with in the range $1.53 to $1.72 per thousand gallons.

Responding to increased needs and demands for water

Science.gov (United States)

Hans M. Gregersen; William K. Easter; J. Edward de Steiguer

2000-01-01

The nature of the increased needs and demands for water relate to water quantity and quality, bringing in the dimensions of timing and location of water flows. Some key past international activities related to water and watershed policy are reviewed. The common threads that are shaping likely future responses relate to technical vs. institutional means of addressing...

Natural gas consumption trends and demand projections for Pakistan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uqaili, M.A.; Harijan, K.; Memon, H.U.R.

2005-01-01

Pakistan is an energy deficient country and heavily depends on imported energy. Natural gas is a dominating source of commercial energy in the country. This paper presents the natural gas consumption trends and future demand projections for Pakistan. The paper also investigates the potential utilization options of natural gas in the country. The study indicates that the natural gas consumption in the country increased rapidly at an average growth rate of about 6.8% per annum during the last three decades. Currently, natural gas contributes about 44.2% of the primary commercial energy supply in the country. Power, Fertilizer, General industry and Domestic sectors are the major consumers of gas in the country. The paper concludes the natural gas demand in the country is projected to increase to about 34-64 MTOE (Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent) by the year 2018. Enhancement in the indigenous exploration and modulation of gas and import of gas from central Asian Sates is essential for meeting the growing gas demand, protecting the environment and increasing the economic independence in the country. (author)

An integrated study of earth resources in the State of California using remote sensing techniques. [supply, demand, and impact of California water resources

Science.gov (United States)

Colwell, R. N.; Burgy, R. H.; Algazi, V. R.; Draeger, W. C.; Estes, J. E.; Bowden, L. W. (Principal Investigator)

1974-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. The supply, demand, and impact relationships of California's water resources as exemplified by the Feather River project and other aspects of the California Water Plan are discussed.

Integrating the simulation of domestic water demand behaviour to an urban water model using agent based modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Koutiva, Ifigeneia; Makropoulos, Christos

2015-04-01

The urban water system's sustainable evolution requires tools that can analyse and simulate the complete cycle including both physical and cultural environments. One of the main challenges, in this regard, is the design and development of tools that are able to simulate the society's water demand behaviour and the way policy measures affect it. The effects of these policy measures are a function of personal opinions that subsequently lead to the formation of people's attitudes. These attitudes will eventually form behaviours. This work presents the design of an ABM tool for addressing the social dimension of the urban water system. The created tool, called Urban Water Agents' Behaviour (UWAB) model, was implemented, using the NetLogo agent programming language. The main aim of the UWAB model is to capture the effects of policies and environmental pressures to water conservation behaviour of urban households. The model consists of agents representing urban households that are linked to each other creating a social network that influences the water conservation behaviour of its members. Household agents are influenced as well by policies and environmental pressures, such as drought. The UWAB model simulates behaviour resulting in the evolution of water conservation within an urban population. The final outcome of the model is the evolution of the distribution of different conservation levels (no, low, high) to the selected urban population. In addition, UWAB is implemented in combination with an existing urban water management simulation tool, the Urban Water Optioneering Tool (UWOT) in order to create a modelling platform aiming to facilitate an adaptive approach of water resources management. For the purposes of this proposed modelling platform, UWOT is used in a twofold manner: (1) to simulate domestic water demand evolution and (2) to simulate the response of the water system to the domestic water demand evolution. The main advantage of the UWAB - UWOT model

Large-scale water projects in the developing world: Revisiting the past and looking to the future

Science.gov (United States)

Sivakumar, Bellie; Chen, Ji

2014-05-01

During the past half a century or so, the developing world has been witnessing a significant increase in freshwater demands due to a combination of factors, including population growth, increased food demand, improved living standards, and water quality degradation. Since there exists significant variability in rainfall and river flow in both space and time, large-scale storage and distribution of water has become a key means to meet these increasing demands. In this regard, large dams and water transfer schemes (including river-linking schemes and virtual water trades) have been playing a key role. While the benefits of such large-scale projects in supplying water for domestic, irrigation, industrial, hydropower, recreational, and other uses both in the countries of their development and in other countries are undeniable, concerns on their negative impacts, such as high initial costs and damages to our ecosystems (e.g. river environment and species) and socio-economic fabric (e.g. relocation and socio-economic changes of affected people) have also been increasing in recent years. These have led to serious debates on the role of large-scale water projects in the developing world and on their future, but the often one-sided nature of such debates have inevitably failed to yield fruitful outcomes thus far. The present study aims to offer a far more balanced perspective on this issue. First, it recognizes and emphasizes the need for still additional large-scale water structures in the developing world in the future, due to the continuing increase in water demands, inefficiency in water use (especially in the agricultural sector), and absence of equivalent and reliable alternatives. Next, it reviews a few important success and failure stories of large-scale water projects in the developing world (and in the developed world), in an effort to arrive at a balanced view on the future role of such projects. Then, it discusses some major challenges in future water planning

Water Demand Management Policy Brief No

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Bob Stanley

Water demand management (WDM) programs have been widely implemented across the MENA region and elsewhere, with varying degrees of success. The criteria below are intended to help policymakers determine how best to develop institutions with the capacity and capability to design, implement and monitor WDM ...

Estimating the Determinants of Residential Water Demand in Italy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giulia Romano

2014-09-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study was to estimate the determinants of residential water demand for chief towns of every Italian province, in the period 2007–2009, using the linear mixed-effects model estimated with the restricted-maximum-likelihood method. Results confirmed that the applied tariff had a negative effect on residential water consumption and that it was a relevant driver of domestic water consumption. Moreover, income per capita had a positive effect on water consumption. Among measured climatic and geographical features, precipitation and altitude exerted a strongly significant negative effect on water consumption, while temperature did not influence water demand. Further, data show that small towns in terms of population served were characterized by lower levels of consumption. Water utilities ownership itself did not have a significant effect on water consumption but tariffs were significantly lower and residential water consumption was higher in towns where the water service was managed by publicly owned water utilities. However, further research is needed to gain a better understanding of the connection between ownership of water utilities and water prices and water consumption.

Management of Water Demand in Africa and the Middle East ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Management of Water Demand in Africa and the Middle East : Current Practices and Future Needs. Couverture du livre Management of Water Demand in Africa and the Middle East : Current Practices. Directeur(s) : David B. Brooks, Eglal Rached et Maurice Saade. Maison(s) d'édition : CRDI. 1 janvier 1997. ISBN : Épuisé.

Management of Water Demand in Africa and the Middle East ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

1997-01-01

Management of Water Demand in Africa and the Middle East : Current Practices and Future Needs. Couverture du livre Management of Water Demand in Africa and the Middle East : Current Practices. Editor(s):. David B. Brooks, Eglal Rached et Maurice Saade. Publisher(s):. CRDI. January 1, 1997. ISBN: Épuisé. 78 pages.

Assessing the adequacy of water storage infrastructure capacity under hydroclimatic variability and water demands in the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Ho, M. W.; Devineni, N.; Cook, E. R.; Lall, U.

2017-12-01

As populations and associated economic activity in the US evolve, regional demands for water likewise change. For regions dependent on surface water, dams and reservoirs are critical to storing and managing releases of water and regulating the temporal and spatial availability of water in order to meet these demands. Storage capacities typically range from seasonal storage in the east to multi-annual and decadal-scale storage in the drier west. However, most dams in the US were designed with limited knowledge regarding the range, frequency, and persistence of hydroclimatic extremes. Demands for water supplied by these dams have likewise changed. Furthermore, many dams in the US are now reaching or have already exceeded their economic design life. The converging issues of aging dams, improved knowledge of hydroclimatic variability, and evolving demands for dam services result in a pressing need to evaluate existing reservoir capacities with respect to contemporary water demands, long term hydroclimatic variability, and service reliability into the future. Such an effort is possible given the recent development of two datasets that respectively address hydroclimatic variability in the conterminous United States over the past 555 years and human water demand related water stress over the same region. The first data set is a paleoclimate reconstruction of streamflow variability across the CONUS region based on a tree-ring informed reconstruction of the Palmer Drought Severity Index. This streamflow reconstruction suggested that wet spells with shorter drier spells were a key feature of 20th century streamflow compared with the preceding 450 years. The second data set in an annual cumulative drought index that is a measure of water balance based on water supplied through precipitation and water demands based on evaporative demands, agricultural, urban, and industrial demands. This index identified urban and regional hotspots that were particularly dependent on water

Witwatersrand Water Ingress Project - Information Management System (WWIPIMS), South Africa

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hild, S.; Sieste, M.; Barth, A.; Rudinskaya, J. [Beak Consultants GmbH, Freiberg (Germany); Croukamp, L.; Roos, M. [Council for Geoscience (CGS), Pretoria (South Africa)

2006-07-01

The Witwatersrand Water Ingress Project at the Council for Geoscience, South Africa (CGS) deals with an inventory, a risk assessment and the development of rehabilitation strategies for abandoned mining sites in the Witwatersrand Mining Basin. The main focus is the prevention of water ingress and to understand the future decanting scenario. An Information Management System consisting of both a relational database and an application for the Witwatersrand Water Ingress Project is established for accessing and managing all project-related data. This easy to use application makes the data available to all staff at the CGS via several modules as well as a GIS-component for accessing and querying spatial data. This will enable the scientists to derive further knowledge of the water flowing processes by directly using all of the existing up-to-date data. Many additional functions, such as the support for map printing on demand, extensive possibilities for inquiries, data import and export, diagrams and a GIS-viewer for spatial inquiries do complete the system. (orig.)

A model to assess water tariffs as part of water demand management

African Journals Online (AJOL)

... to calculate the predicted change in water use and the associated income. The model takes into account variation in price elasticity per tariff block. The effectiveness of the model as a planning tool is illustrated through an appropriate example. Keywords: water demand management, price elasticity, change in water tariff, ...

Dynamic modelling of water demand, water availability and adaptation strategies for power plants to global change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koch, Hagen; Voegele, Stefan

2009-01-01

According to the latest IPCC reports, the frequency of hot and dry periods will increase in many regions of the world in the future. For power plant operators, the increasing possibility of water shortages is an important challenge that they have to face. Shortages of electricity due to water shortages could have an influence on industries as well as on private households. Climate change impact analyses must analyse the climate effects on power plants and possible adaptation strategies for the power generation sector. Power plants have lifetimes of several decades. Their water demand changes with climate parameters in the short- and medium-term. In the long-term, the water demand will change as old units are phased out and new generating units appear in their place. In this paper, we describe the integration of functions for the calculation of the water demand of power plants into a water resources management model. Also included are both short-term reactive and long-term planned adaptation. This integration allows us to simulate the interconnection between the water demand of power plants and water resources management, i.e. water availability. Economic evaluation functions for water shortages are also integrated into the water resources management model. This coupled model enables us to analyse scenarios of socio-economic and climate change, as well as the effects of water management actions. (author)

Massachusetts Study of Teacher Supply and Demand: Trends and Projections

Science.gov (United States)

Levin, Jesse; Berg-Jacobson, Alex; Atchison, Drew; Lee, Katelyn; Vontsolos, Emily

2015-01-01

In April 2015, the Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (ESE) commissioned American Institutes for Research (AIR) to develop a comprehensive set of 10-year projections of teacher supply and demand in order to inform planning for future workforce needs. This included state-level projections both in the aggregate, as well…

China’s rising hydropower demand challenges water sector

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Junguo; Zhao, Dandan; Gerbens-Leenes, P. W.; Guan, Dabo

2015-01-01

Demand for hydropower is increasing, yet the water footprints (WFs) of reservoirs and hydropower, and their contributions to water scarcity, are poorly understood. Here, we calculate reservoir WFs (freshwater that evaporates from reservoirs) and hydropower WFs (the WF of hydroelectricity) in China based on data from 875 representative reservoirs (209 with power plants). In 2010, the reservoir WF totaled 27.9 × 109 m3 (Gm3), or 22% of China’s total water consumption. Ignoring the reservoir WF seriously underestimates human water appropriation. The reservoir WF associated with industrial, domestic and agricultural WFs caused water scarcity in 6 of the 10 major Chinese river basins from 2 to 12 months annually. The hydropower WF was 6.6 Gm3 yr−1 or 3.6 m3 of water to produce a GJ (109 J) of electricity. Hydropower is a water intensive energy carrier. As a response to global climate change, the Chinese government has promoted a further increase in hydropower energy by 70% by 2020 compared to 2012. This energy policy imposes pressure on available freshwater resources and increases water scarcity. The water-energy nexus requires strategic and coordinated implementations of hydropower development among geographical regions, as well as trade-off analysis between rising energy demand and water use sustainability. PMID:26158871

Household Water Demand in Andorra: Impact of Individual Metering and Seasonality

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arnaud Reynaud

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Despite the large literature focused on residential water use, our knowledge of the impact of individual metering on household water consumption remains limited. Our work aims to fill this gap by providing the first estimate of the residential water demand function in the Principality of Andorra, where collective and individual metering coexists. Using a panel dataset covering the years 2006 to 2015, we propose estimating a domestic water demand function for the municipality of Andorra La Vella (the capital of Andorra. Our estimates reveal a price elasticity of the residential water demand equal to –0.7. Facing a price increase of 10 percent, households will react in the short run by reducing their water consumption by 7 percent. Interestingly, the price elasticity is found to be significantly different in single-family units compared to multi-family units. This may suggest a significant impact of individual metering on domestic water consumption in Andorra.

Handling Uncertain Gross Margin and Water Demand in Agricultural Water Resources Management using Robust Optimization

Science.gov (United States)

Chaerani, D.; Lesmana, E.; Tressiana, N.

2018-03-01

In this paper, an application of Robust Optimization in agricultural water resource management problem under gross margin and water demand uncertainty is presented. Water resource management is a series of activities that includes planning, developing, distributing and managing the use of water resource optimally. Water resource management for agriculture can be one of the efforts to optimize the benefits of agricultural output. The objective function of agricultural water resource management problem is to maximizing total benefits by water allocation to agricultural areas covered by the irrigation network in planning horizon. Due to gross margin and water demand uncertainty, we assume that the uncertain data lies within ellipsoidal uncertainty set. We employ robust counterpart methodology to get the robust optimal solution.

Open Source Tools for Assessment of Global Water Availability, Demands, and Scarcity

Science.gov (United States)

Li, X.; Vernon, C. R.; Hejazi, M. I.; Link, R. P.; Liu, Y.; Feng, L.; Huang, Z.; Liu, L.

2017-12-01

Water availability and water demands are essential factors for estimating water scarcity conditions. To reproduce historical observations and to quantify future changes in water availability and water demand, two open source tools have been developed by the JGCRI (Joint Global Change Research Institute): Xanthos and GCAM-STWD. Xanthos is a gridded global hydrologic model, designed to quantify and analyze water availability in 235 river basins. Xanthos uses a runoff generation and a river routing modules to simulate both historical and future estimates of total runoff and streamflows on a monthly time step at a spatial resolution of 0.5 degrees. GCAM-STWD is a spatiotemporal water disaggregation model used with the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to spatially downscale global water demands for six major enduse sectors (irrigation, domestic, electricity generation, mining, and manufacturing) from the region scale to the scale of 0.5 degrees. GCAM-STWD then temporally downscales the gridded annual global water demands to monthly results. These two tools, written in Python, can be integrated to assess global, regional or basin-scale water scarcity or water stress. Both of the tools are extensible to ensure flexibility and promote contribution from researchers that utilize GCAM and study global water use and supply.

Designing cost effective water demand management programs in Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

White, S B; Fane, S A

2002-01-01

This paper describes recent experience with integrated resource planning (IRP) and the application of least cost planning (LCP) for the evaluation of demand management strategies in urban water. Two Australian case studies, Sydney and Northern New South Wales (NSW) are used in illustration. LCP can determine the most cost effective means of providing water services or alternatively the cheapest forms of water conservation. LCP contrasts to a traditional approach of evaluation which looks only at means of increasing supply. Detailed investigation of water usage, known as end-use analysis, is required for LCP. End-use analysis allows both rigorous demand forecasting, and the development and evaluation of conservation strategies. Strategies include education campaigns, increasing water use efficiency and promoting wastewater reuse or rainwater tanks. The optimal mix of conservation strategies and conventional capacity expansion is identified based on levelised unit cost. IRP uses LCP in the iterative process, evaluating and assessing options, investing in selected options, measuring the results, and then re-evaluating options. Key to this process is the design of cost effective demand management programs. IRP however includes a range of parameters beyond least economic cost in the planning process and program designs, including uncertainty, benefit partitioning and implementation considerations.

Meeting the food, energy, and water demands of nine billion people: Will climate change add a new dimension?

Science.gov (United States)

Climate change will add a new stress to our ability to produce food and supply water and energy for the expanding population. There is an emerging gap between the current production trends in food commodities around the world and the projected needs to meet the demands for the world population. This...

Multi-Model Prediction for Demand Forecast in Water Distribution Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rodrigo Lopez Farias

2018-03-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a multi-model predictor called Qualitative Multi-Model Predictor Plus (QMMP+ for demand forecast in water distribution networks. QMMP+ is based on the decomposition of the quantitative and qualitative information of the time-series. The quantitative component (i.e., the daily consumption prediction is forecasted and the pattern mode estimated using a Nearest Neighbor (NN classifier and a Calendar. The patterns are updated via a simple Moving Average scheme. The NN classifier and the Calendar are executed simultaneously every period and the most suited model for prediction is selected using a probabilistic approach. The proposed solution for water demand forecast is compared against Radial Basis Function Artificial Neural Networks (RBF-ANN, the statistical Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA, and Double Seasonal Holt-Winters (DSHW approaches, providing the best results when applied to real demand of the Barcelona Water Distribution Network. QMMP+ has demonstrated that the special modelling treatment of water consumption patterns improves the forecasting accuracy.

Water availability and demand in West Africa in the 21st century: impacts of climate change and population growth

Science.gov (United States)

Wisser, Dominik; Oyerinde, Ganiyu; Ibrahim, Moussa; Ibrahim, Boubacar

2014-05-01

The countries in West Africa are highly dependent on rainfed agriculture. Changes in the magnitude and timing of precipitation will affect the agricultural output and the economies as a whole. Irrigation is increasingly being considered an important adaptation option to help improve food security of the population that is expected to double in less than 50 years. West Africa is one of the regions where general circulation models (GCM) show the highest disagreements in the direction of future trends of precipitation, making assessments of water availability and the potential for irrigation a difficult task. We use output from a set of dynamically downscaled climate data sets from regional climate modes (RCM) from the CORDEX CMIP5 collection to drive WBMplus, a macroscale hydrological model and simultaneously calculate water demand (livestock, domestic, and irrigation) and availability for a set of land use, and socio economic scenarios around the 2050's for river basins in the ten countries participating in the West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL) project. Contrary to earlier results from GCMs, the set of RCMs suggest a consistent increase (~5-10%) in annual precipitation for a majority of the land area in West Africa that translates to slight increases in river flow under natural conditions for most river basins and a opportunities for increasing irrigation during the dry season. However, water demand is projected to more than double for livestock and domestic needs as a result of population growth. Demand for irrigation will rise sharply if irrigation is expanded from the current area (representing less than 3% of all croplands in the region), closer to its potential which is multiple times higher than the existing area. The pressures on water resources in the region will therefore be dominated by pressures arising from increased demand rather than changes in the availability of water and can potentially lead to

Analytical optimization of demand management strategies across all urban water use sectors

Science.gov (United States)

Friedman, Kenneth; Heaney, James P.; Morales, Miguel; Palenchar, John

2014-07-01

An effective urban water demand management program can greatly influence both peak and average demand and therefore long-term water supply and infrastructure planning. Although a theoretical framework for evaluating residential indoor demand management has been well established, little has been done to evaluate other water use sectors such as residential irrigation in a compatible manner for integrating these results into an overall solution. This paper presents a systematic procedure to evaluate the optimal blend of single family residential irrigation demand management strategies to achieve a specified goal based on performance functions derived from parcel level tax assessor's data linked to customer level monthly water billing data. This framework is then generalized to apply to any urban water sector, as exponential functions can be fit to all resulting cumulative water savings functions. Two alternative formulations are presented: maximize net benefits, or minimize total costs subject to satisfying a target water savings. Explicit analytical solutions are presented for both formulations based on appropriate exponential best fits of performance functions. A direct result of this solution is the dual variable which represents the marginal cost of water saved at a specified target water savings goal. A case study of 16,303 single family irrigators in Gainesville Regional Utilities utilizing high quality tax assessor and monthly billing data along with parcel level GIS data provide an illustrative example of these techniques. Spatial clustering of targeted homes can be easily performed in GIS to identify priority demand management areas.

Demonstrating demand response from water distribution system through pump scheduling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Menke, Ruben; Abraham, Edo; Parpas, Panos; Stoianov, Ivan

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Water distribution systems can profitably provide demand response energy. • STOR and FFR are financially viable under a wide range of operating conditions. • Viability depends on the pump utilisation and peak price of the electricity tariff. • Total GHG emissions caused by the provision of reserve energy are <300 gCO_2/kW h. • These are lower than those from the major reserve energy provision technologies. - Abstract: Significant changes in the power generation mix are posing new challenges for the balancing systems of the grid. Many of these challenges are in the secondary electricity grid regulation services and could be met through demand response (DR) services. We explore the opportunities for a water distribution system (WDS) to provide balancing services with demand response through pump scheduling and evaluate the associated benefits. Using a benchmark network and demand response mechanisms available in the UK, these benefits are assessed in terms of reduced green house gas (GHG) emissions from the grid due to the displacement of more polluting power sources and additional revenues for water utilities. The optimal pump scheduling problem is formulated as a mixed-integer optimisation problem and solved using a branch and bound algorithm. This new formulation finds the optimal level of power capacity to commit to the provision of demand response for a range of reserve energy provision and frequency response schemes offered in the UK. For the first time we show that DR from WDS can offer financial benefits to WDS operators while providing response energy to the grid with less greenhouse gas emissions than competing reserve energy technologies. Using a Monte Carlo simulation based on data from 2014, we demonstrate that the cost of providing the storage energy is less than the financial compensation available for the equivalent energy supply. The GHG emissions from the demand response provision from a WDS are also shown to be smaller than

Is the available cropland and water enough for food demand? A global perspective of the Land-Water-Food nexus

Science.gov (United States)

Ibarrola-Rivas, M. J.; Granados-Ramírez, R.; Nonhebel, S.

2017-12-01

Land and water are essential local resources for food production but are limited. The main drivers of increasing food demand are population growth and dietary changes, which depend on the socioeconomic situation of the population. These two factors affect the availability of local resources: population growth reduces the land and water per person; and adoption of affluent diets increases the demand for land and water per person. This study shows potentials of global food supply by linking food demand drivers with national land and water availability. Whether the available land and water is enough to meet national food demand was calculated for 187 countries. The calculations were performed for the past situation (1960 and 2010) and to assess four future scenarios (2050) to discuss different paths of diets, population numbers and agricultural expansion. Inclusion of the demand perspective in the analysis has shown stronger challenges for future global food supply than have other studies. The results show that with the "business as usual" scenario, 40% of the global population in 2050 will live in countries with not enough land nor water to meet the demands of their population. Restriction to basic diets will be the most effective in lowering both land and water constraints. Our results identify both food production and food demand factors, and the regions that may experience the strongest challenges in 2050.

Balancing food security and water demand for freshwater ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Pastor, Amandine; Palazzo, Amanda; Havlik, Petr; Obersteiner, Michael; Biemans, Hester; Wada, Yoshihide; Kabat, Pavel; Ludwig, Fulco

2017-04-01

Water is not an infinite resource and demand from irrigation, household and industry is constantly increasing. This study focused on including global water availability including environmental flow requirements with water withdrawal from irrigation and other sectors at a monthly time-step in the GLOBIOM model. This model allows re-adjustment of land-use allocation, crop management, consumption and international trade. The GLOBIOM model induces an endogenous change in water price depending on water supply and demand. In this study, the focus was on how the inclusion of water resources affects land-use and, in particular, how global change will influence repartition of irrigated and rainfed lands at global scale. We used the climate change scenario including a radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2 (RCP8.5), the socio-economic scenario (SSP2: middle-of-road), and the environmental flow method based on monthly flow allocation (the Variable Monthly Flow method) with high and low restrictions. Irrigation withdrawals were adjusted to a monthly time-step to account for biophysical water limitations at finer time resolution. Our results show that irrigated land might decrease up to 40% on average depending on the choice of EFR restrictions. Several areas were identified as future hot-spots of water stress such as the Mediterranean and Middle-East regions. Other countries were identified to be in safe position in terms of water stress such as North-European countries. Re-allocation of rainfed and irrigated land might be useful information for land-use planners and water managers at an international level to decide on appropriate legislations on climate change mitigation/adaptation when exposure and sensitivity to climate change is high and/or on adaptation measures to face increasing water demand. For example, some countries are likely to adopt measures to increase their water use efficiencies (irrigation system, soil and water conservation practices) to face water shortages, while

South Asia river-flow projections and their implications for water resources

Science.gov (United States)

Mathison, C.; Wiltshire, A. J.; Falloon, P.; Challinor, A. J.

2015-12-01

South Asia is a region with a large and rising population, a high dependence on water intense industries, such as agriculture and a highly variable climate. In recent years, fears over the changing Asian summer monsoon (ASM) and rapidly retreating glaciers together with increasing demands for water resources have caused concern over the reliability of water resources and the potential impact on intensely irrigated crops in this region. Despite these concerns, there is a lack of climate simulations with a high enough resolution to capture the complex orography, and water resource analysis is limited by a lack of observations of the water cycle for the region. In this paper we present the first 25 km resolution regional climate projections of river flow for the South Asia region. Two global climate models (GCMs), which represent the ASM reasonably well are downscaled (1960-2100) using a regional climate model (RCM). In the absence of robust observations, ERA-Interim reanalysis is also downscaled providing a constrained estimate of the water balance for the region for comparison against the GCMs (1990-2006). The RCM river flow is routed using a river-routing model to allow analysis of present-day and future river flows through comparison with available river gauge observations. We examine how useful these simulations are for understanding potential changes in water resources for the South Asia region. In general the downscaled GCMs capture the seasonality of the river flows but overestimate the maximum river flows compared to the observations probably due to a positive rainfall bias and a lack of abstraction in the model. The simulations suggest an increasing trend in annual mean river flows for some of the river gauges in this analysis, in some cases almost doubling by the end of the century. The future maximum river-flow rates still occur during the ASM period, with a magnitude in some cases, greater than the present-day natural variability. Increases in river flow

Hierarchical prediction of industrial water demand based on refined Laspeyres decomposition analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Shang, Yizi; Lu, Shibao; Gong, Jiaguo; Shang, Ling; Li, Xiaofei; Wei, Yongping; Shi, Hongwang

2017-12-01

A recent study decomposed the changes in industrial water use into three hierarchies (output, technology, and structure) using a refined Laspeyres decomposition model, and found monotonous and exclusive trends in the output and technology hierarchies. Based on that research, this study proposes a hierarchical prediction approach to forecast future industrial water demand. Three water demand scenarios (high, medium, and low) were then established based on potential future industrial structural adjustments, and used to predict water demand for the structural hierarchy. The predictive results of this approach were compared with results from a grey prediction model (GPM (1, 1)). The comparison shows that the results of the two approaches were basically identical, differing by less than 10%. Taking Tianjin, China, as a case, and using data from 2003-2012, this study predicts that industrial water demand will continuously increase, reaching 580 million m 3 , 776.4 million m 3 , and approximately 1.09 billion m 3 by the years 2015, 2020 and 2025 respectively. It is concluded that Tianjin will soon face another water crisis if no immediate measures are taken. This study recommends that Tianjin adjust its industrial structure with water savings as the main objective, and actively seek new sources of water to increase its supply.

Economic concepts to address future water supply-demand imbalances in Iran, Morocco and Saudi Arabia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hellegers, P.J.G.J.; Immerzeel, W.; Droogers, P.

2013-01-01

In Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries, renewable groundwater and surface water supply are limited while demand for water is growing rapidly. Climate change is expected to increase water demand even further. The main aim of this paper is to evaluate the water supply–demand imbalances in

Water stress as a trigger of demand change: exploring the implications for drought planning

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia, M. E.; Islam, S.; Portney, K. E.

2015-12-01

Drought in the Anthropocene is a function of both supply and demand. Despite its importance, demand is typically incorporated into planning models exogenously using a single scenario of demand change over time. Alternatively, demand is incorporated endogenously in hydro-economic models based on the assumption of rationality. However, actors are constrained by limited information and information processing capabilities, casting doubt on the rationality assumption. Though the risk of water shortage changes incrementally with demand growth and hydrologic change, significant shifts in management are punctuated and often linked to periods of stress. The observation of lasting decreases in per capita demands in a number of cities during periods of water stress prompts an alternate hypothesis: the occurrence of water stress increases the tendency of cities to promote and enforce efficient technologies and behaviors and the tendency of users to adopt them. We show the relevance of this hypothesis by building a model of a hypothetical surface water system to answer the following question: what is the impact of reservoir operation policy on the reliability of water supply for a growing city? The model links the rate of demand decreases to the past reliability to compare standard operating policy (SOP) with hedging policy (HP). Under SOP, demand is fulfilled unless available supply drops below demand; under HP, water releases are reduced in anticipation of a deficit to decrease the risk of a large shortfall. The model shows that reservoir storage acts both as a buffer for variability and as a delay triggering oscillations around a sustainable level of demand. HP reduces the threshold for action thereby decreasing the delay and the oscillation effect. As a result per capita demand decrease during periods of water stress are more frequent but less drastic and the additive effect of small adjustments decreases the tendency of the system to overshoot available supplies.

Residential water demand and water consumption: an econometric analysis on municipal panel data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Musolesi, Antonio; Nosvelli, Mario

2005-01-01

This paper focuses on residential water demand estimation, a rather neglected issue in the Italian environmental economics literature as compared to other European countries and the USA. This may depend on the difficulties in gathering proper data and, most of all, panel data. In some cases statistical information are not suitably collected, while in other cases legal privacy ties put some obstacles to data set transfer. Our panel data set refers to 102 municipalities in Lombardy (Italy) for the period 1998-2002. When estimating the effect of water price, we control for other relevant variables such as: income, households demographical variables - (age structure, number of component for each family) number of firms in tertiary sector, water system length. In the considered period, the data show both an increase in population (1,5 %) and in the number of water consumers (7%) associated, on aggregate, with a slight reduction in water consumption (-1,1 %). Water demand models are estimated both in a static and in a dynamic framework. In the former, the emphasis is set on the sources of endogeneity in the average price by estimating a system of simultaneous equations and relevant variables for assessing consumer behaviour - such as socio demographic ones - are incorporated in the model. In the latter, econometric methods especially designed for endogeneity in panel data models (Arellano e Bond, 1991), are employed in order to estimate the long run elasticity of water demand with respect to average price. We find evidence both that consumers significantly respond to average price only in the long run with an elasticity of about - 0,3-0,4 and that income and demographic variables are crucial in explaining consumers' behaviour. Furthermore, water consumption presents a strong auto-regressive component, showing the emergence of inertia and path dependency in consumption habits. Such results suggest important implications for water policy planning. On one side demographic

Modelling global water stress of the recent past: on the relative importance of trends in water demand and climate variability

Science.gov (United States)

Wada, Y.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

2011-12-01

During the past decades, human water use has more than doubled, yet available freshwater resources are finite. As a result, water scarcity has been prevalent in various regions of the world. Here, we present the first global assessment of past development of water stress considering not only climate variability but also growing water demand, desalinated water use and non-renewable groundwater abstraction over the period 1960-2001 at a spatial resolution of 0.5°. Agricultural water demand is estimated based on past extents of irrigated areas and livestock densities. We approximate past economic development based on GDP, energy and household consumption and electricity production, which are subsequently used together with population numbers to estimate industrial and domestic water demand. Climate variability is expressed by simulated blue water availability defined by freshwater in rivers, lakes, wetlands and reservoirs by means of the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. We thus define blue water stress by comparing blue water availability with corresponding net total blue water demand by means of the commonly used, Water Scarcity Index. The results show a drastic increase in the global population living under water-stressed conditions (i.e. moderate to high water stress) due to growing water demand, primarily for irrigation, which has more than doubled from 1708/818 to 3708/1832 km3 yr-1 (gross/net) over the period 1960-2000. We estimate that 800 million people or 27% of the global population were living under water-stressed conditions for 1960. This number is eventually increased to 2.6 billion or 43% for 2000. Our results indicate that increased water demand is a decisive factor for heightened water stress in various regions such as India and North China, enhancing the intensity of water stress up to 200%, while climate variability is often a main determinant of extreme events. However, our results also suggest that in several emerging and developing economies

Forecasting Hourly Water Demands With Seasonal Autoregressive Models for Real-Time Application

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Jinduan; Boccelli, Dominic L.

2018-02-01

Consumer water demands are not typically measured at temporal or spatial scales adequate to support real-time decision making, and recent approaches for estimating unobserved demands using observed hydraulic measurements are generally not capable of forecasting demands and uncertainty information. While time series modeling has shown promise for representing total system demands, these models have generally not been evaluated at spatial scales appropriate for representative real-time modeling. This study investigates the use of a double-seasonal time series model to capture daily and weekly autocorrelations to both total system demands and regional aggregated demands at a scale that would capture demand variability across a distribution system. Emphasis was placed on the ability to forecast demands and quantify uncertainties with results compared to traditional time series pattern-based demand models as well as nonseasonal and single-seasonal time series models. Additional research included the implementation of an adaptive-parameter estimation scheme to update the time series model when unobserved changes occurred in the system. For two case studies, results showed that (1) for the smaller-scale aggregated water demands, the log-transformed time series model resulted in improved forecasts, (2) the double-seasonal model outperformed other models in terms of forecasting errors, and (3) the adaptive adjustment of parameters during forecasting improved the accuracy of the generated prediction intervals. These results illustrate the capabilities of time series modeling to forecast both water demands and uncertainty estimates at spatial scales commensurate for real-time modeling applications and provide a foundation for developing a real-time integrated demand-hydraulic model.

Deconstructing Demand: The Anthropogenic and Climatic Drivers of Urban Water Consumption.

Science.gov (United States)

Hemati, Azadeh; Rippy, Megan A; Grant, Stanley B; Davis, Kristen; Feldman, David

2016-12-06

Cities in drought prone regions of the world such as South East Australia are faced with escalating water scarcity and security challenges. Here we use 72 years of urban water consumption data from Melbourne, Australia, a city that recently overcame a 12 year "Millennium Drought", to evaluate (1) the relative importance of climatic and anthropogenic drivers of urban water demand (using wavelet-based approaches) and (2) the relative contribution of various water saving strategies to demand reduction during the Millennium Drought. Our analysis points to conservation as a dominant driver of urban water savings (69%), followed by nonrevenue water reduction (e.g., reduced meter error and leaks in the potable distribution system; 29%), and potable substitution with alternative sources like rain or recycled water (3%). Per-capita consumption exhibited both climatic and anthropogenic signatures, with rainfall and temperature explaining approximately 55% of the variance. Anthropogenic controls were also strong (up to 45% variance explained). These controls were nonstationary and frequency-specific, with conservation measures like outdoor water restrictions impacting seasonal water use and technological innovation/changing social norms impacting lower frequency (baseline) use. The above-noted nonstationarity implies that wavelets, which do not assume stationarity, show promise for use in future predictive models of demand.

Evaluation of sea water chlorine demand in condenser cooling water at TAPS 1 and 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Papachan, Deepa; Gupta, P.K.; Patil, D.P.; Save, C.B.; Anilkumar, K.R.

2008-01-01

To prevent microbiological growth in the condenser tubes, condenser cooling water chlorination is very important. For effective chlorination, chlorine dose rate and frequency of dosing has to be determined on the basis of sea water chlorine demand. TAPS 1 and 2 is located near Arabian sea and draws water from this sea for its condenser cooling. The present practice of chlorine dosing at TAPS 1 and 2, based on the analysis carried out by GE in 1969, is 2500 kg/day/CWpump and 90 kg/day/SSWpump for a contact period of 25 minutes. Normal frequency of dosing is once per 8 hour and booster dose is once in a week at the same rate for 1 hour. The criteria of effective chlorination is to get residual chlorine of 2-3 ppm at the condenser water box outlet during chlorination at water box inlet/CW pump suction header in the recommended dose rate. The other option of chlorination was continuous dosing to get 0.5 ppm residual chlorine. This option has its own limitations as it is more expensive and also that micro organisms get immune to chlorine eventually due to continuous dosing. Nevertheless higher chlorine dosing is detrimental to AI-brass condenser tubes. Therefore the second option was not adopted at TAPS 1 and 2. Tarapur Atomic Power Station-1 is in the process of replacement of condenser tubes due to frequent condenser tube failures in the recent years. It was essential to analyse the present sea water chlorine demand and re-determine the chlorine dose rate because of development of industries under Maharashtra Industrial Development Corporation (MIDC) and simultaneous population growth around this area over a period of three decades. This paper discusses the experimental observations regarding significant change in sea water chlorine demand over this period and the effect of seasonal changes on sea water chlorine demand. (author)

Simulation of Integrated Qualitative and Quantitative Allocation of Surafce and Underground Water Resources to Drinking Water Demand in Mashhad

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mansoureh Atashi

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Despite the fact that both surface and groundwater resources inside and outside the city of Mashhad have been already exploited to their maximum capacity and that the large water transfer Doosti Dam Project has been already implemented to transfer a considerable quanity of water to Mashhad, the city will be encountering a daily water shortage of about 1.7 m3/s by 2021. The problem would be even worse if the quality of the water resources are taken into account, in which case, the shortage would start even sooner in 2011 when the water deficit will be about 0.9 m3/s. As a result, it is essential to develop short- and medium-term strategies for secure adequate water supplies for the city's domestic water demand. The present study aims to carry out a qualitative and quantitative modeling of surface and groundwater resources supplying Mashhad domestic water. The qualitative model is based on the quality indices of surface and groundwater resources according to which the resources are classified in the three quality categories of resources with no limitation, those with moderate limitations, and those with high limitations for use as domestic water supplies. The pressure zones are then examined with respect to the potable water demand and supply to be simulated in the MODSIM environment. The model thus developed is verified for the 2012 data based on the measures affecting water resources in the region and various scenarios are finally evaluated for a long-term 30-year period. Results show that the peak hourdaily water shortage in 2042for the zone supplied from no limitation resources will be 38%. However, this value will drop to 28% if limitations due to resource quality are also taken into account. Finally, dilution is suggested as a solution for exploiting the maximum quantitative and qualitative potential of the resources used as domestic water supplies. In this situation, the daily peak hour water shortage will be equal to 31%.

Correlation Analysis of Water Demand and Predictive Variables for Short-Term Forecasting Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. M. Brentan

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Operational and economic aspects of water distribution make water demand forecasting paramount for water distribution systems (WDSs management. However, water demand introduces high levels of uncertainty in WDS hydraulic models. As a result, there is growing interest in developing accurate methodologies for water demand forecasting. Several mathematical models can serve this purpose. One crucial aspect is the use of suitable predictive variables. The most used predictive variables involve weather and social aspects. To improve the interrelation knowledge between water demand and various predictive variables, this study applies three algorithms, namely, classical Principal Component Analysis (PCA and machine learning powerful algorithms such as Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs and Random Forest (RF. We show that these last algorithms help corroborate the results found by PCA, while they are able to unveil hidden features for PCA, due to their ability to cope with nonlinearities. This paper presents a correlation study of three district metered areas (DMAs from Franca, a Brazilian city, exploring weather and social variables to improve the knowledge of residential demand for water. For the three DMAs, temperature, relative humidity, and hour of the day appear to be the most important predictive variables to build an accurate regression model.

Development of water demand coefficients for power generation from renewable energy technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ali, Babkir; Kumar, Amit

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Water consumption and withdrawals coefficients for renewable power generation were developed. • Six renewable energy sources (biomass, nuclear, solar, wind, hydroelectricity, and geothermal) were studied. • Life cycle water footprints for 60 electricity generation pathways were considered. • Impact of cooling systems for some power generation pathways was assessed. - Abstract: Renewable energy technology-based power generation is considered to be environmentally friendly and to have a low life cycle greenhouse gas emissions footprint. However, the life cycle water footprint of renewable energy technology-based power generation needs to be assessed. The objective of this study is to develop life cycle water footprints for renewable energy technology-based power generation pathways. Water demand is evaluated through consumption and withdrawals coefficients developed in this study. Sixty renewable energy technology-based power generation pathways were developed for a comprehensive comparative assessment of water footprints. The pathways were based on the use of biomass, nuclear, solar, wind, hydroelectricity, and geothermal as the source of energy. During the complete life cycle, power generation from bio-oil extracted from wood chips, a biomass source, was found to have the highest water demand footprint and wind power the lowest. During the complete life cycle, the water demand coefficients for biomass-based power generation pathways range from 260 to 1289 l of water per kilowatt hour and for nuclear energy pathways from 0.48 to 179 l of water per kilowatt hour. The water demand for power generation from solar energy-based pathways ranges from 0.02 to 4.39 l of water per kilowatt hour, for geothermal pathways from 0.04 to 1.94 l of water per kilowatt hour, and for wind from 0.005 to 0.104 l of water per kilowatt hour. A sensitivity analysis was conducted with varying conversion efficiencies to evaluate the impact of power plant performance on

Water Demand Management for Social Justice | IDRC - International ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

2012-01-18

Jan 18, 2012 ... Water Demand Management for Social Justice ... Women play larger role in Latin America's commercial urban waste management ... the management of solid waste in Latin America, according to research supported by IDRC.

Wind Power Project Repowering: History, Economics, and Demand (Presentation)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lantz, E.

2015-01-01

This presentation summarizes a related NREL technical report and seeks to capture the current status of wind power project repowering in the U.S. and globally, analyze the economic and financial decision drivers that surround repowering, and to quantify the level and timing of demand for new turbine equipment to supply the repowering market.

The development of a municipal water conservation and demand ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The implementation of water conservation and water demand management ... and the municipalities do not have the necessary financial, technical and institutional capacity to support such a ... The methodology for this study was developed as part of the ... Study' for the Vaal River system (DWAF, 2006; DWAF, 2009).

The determinants of domestic water demand. Empirical evidence from Emilia-Romagna municipal data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mazzanti, Massimiliano; Montini, Anna

2004-01-01

This paper presents empirical evidence on the determinants of water demand for domestic use in one Italian region, the Emilia Romagna, by using municipal data. Two main stems in urban/domestic demand analysis cab be found in the empirical literature. The first deals with the estimation of price or income demand elasticities in the short and the long run. The price demand elasticities can be used for water demand managements purpose while the income price elasticities can be useful in the forecasting process of the water requirements. The second one deals with the estimate of customer willingness to pay increasing in water service quality in holistic sense or concerning single characteristics of the service: safety, flavour, continuity, appearance, pollution rate and cost. The aim of the analysis in this case the elicitation of the direct use, indirect use and non-use values associated to the water resource consumption, by means of direct or indirect techniques. In this paper we focused the analysis in the first stem of the empirical literature in which a cross section data set is required. The paper explores the topic problems of the estimating process whit the analysis of the empirical literature (with particular regard to investigations that use municipal data) and with the analysis of the econometric problems related to the demand estimate. The theoretical model for the water demand analysis is also presented and discussed. Two datasets have been implemented: one with 125 municipalities and four years, the other with 40 municipalities and eleven years. Both the databases bring together municipal water consumption and tariffs data provided by local water utilities and other municipal data (inhabitants, surface, household, income, etc.) stemming from official sources. The econometric analysis is based on both fixed effects, performing better than random effects models, and dynamic panel models. The estimated coefficient of the tariff variable arises always

Evaluating Outdoor Water Use Demand under Changing Climatic and Demographic Conditions: An Agent-based Modeling Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Kanta, L.; Berglund, E. Z.; Soh, M. H.

2017-12-01

Outdoor water-use for landscape and irrigation constitutes a significant end-use in total residential water demand. In periods of water shortages, utilities may reduce garden demands by implementing irrigation system audits, rebate programs, local ordinances, and voluntary or mandatory water-use restrictions. Because utilities do not typically record outdoor and indoor water-uses separately, the effects of policies for reducing garden demands cannot be readily calculated. The volume of water required to meet garden demands depends on the housing density, lawn size, type of vegetation, climatic conditions, efficiency of garden irrigation systems, and consumer water-use behaviors. Many existing outdoor demand estimation methods are deterministic and do not include consumer responses to conservation campaigns. In addition, mandatory restrictions may have a substantial impact on reducing outdoor demands, but the effectiveness of mandatory restrictions depends on the timing and the frequency of restrictions, in addition to the distribution of housing density and consumer types within a community. This research investigates a garden end-use model by coupling an agent-based modeling approach and a mechanistic-stochastic water demand model to create a methodology for estimating garden demand and evaluating demand reduction policies. The garden demand model is developed for two water utilities, using a diverse data sets, including residential customer billing records, outdoor conservation programs, frequency and type of mandatory water-use restrictions, lot size distribution, population growth, and climatic data. A set of garden irrigation parameter values, which are based on the efficiency of irrigation systems and irrigation habits of consumers, are determined for a set of conservation ordinances and restrictions. The model parameters are then validated using customer water usage data from the participating water utilities. A sensitivity analysis is conducted for garden

Private Water Projects

OpenAIRE

Izaguirre, Ada Karina; Hunt, Catherine

2005-01-01

Drawing on the World Bank's Private Participation in Infrastructure Project Database, this Note reviews developments in the water and sewerage sector of developing countries in 2004 and changes in private participation in the sector since 2001. Data for 2004 show that total investment in water and sewerage projects with private participation amounted to nearly US$2 billion. Recent private ...

Dynamic modelling of a PV pumping system with special consideration on water demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Campana, Pietro Elia; Li, Hailong; Yan, Jinyue

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► Evaluation of water demand and solar energy is essential for PV pumping system. ► The design for a PV water pumping system has been optimized based on dynamic simulations. ► It is important to conduct dynamic simulations to check the matching between water demand and water supply. ► AC pump driven by the fixed PV array is the most cost-effective solution. - Abstract: The exploitation of solar energy in remote areas through photovoltaic (PV) systems is an attractive solution for water pumping for irrigation systems. The design of a photovoltaic water pumping system (PVWPS) strictly depends on the estimation of the crop water requirements and land use since the water demand varies during the watering season and the solar irradiation changes time by time. It is of significance to conduct dynamic simulations in order to achieve the successful and optimal design. The aim of this paper is to develop a dynamic modelling tool for the design of a of photovoltaic water pumping system by combining the models of the water demand, the solar PV power and the pumping system, which can be used to validate the design procedure in terms of matching between water demand and water supply. Both alternate current (AC) and direct current (DC) pumps and both fixed and two-axis tracking PV array were analyzed. The tool has been applied in a case study. Results show that it has the ability to do rapid design and optimization of PV water pumping system by reducing the power peak and selecting the proper devices from both technical and economic viewpoints. Among the different alternatives considered in this study, the AC fixed system represented the best cost effective solution

Combined desalination, water reuse, and aquifer storage and recovery to meet water supply demands in the GCC/MENA region

KAUST Repository

Ghaffour, Noreddine

2013-01-01

Desalination is no longer considered as a nonconventional resource to supply potable water in several countries, especially in the Gulf Corporation Countries (GCC) and Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as most of the big cities rely almost 100% on desalinated water for their supply. Due to the continuous increase in water demand, more large-scale plants are expected to be constructed in the region. However, most of the large cities in these countries have very limited water storage capacity, ranging from hours to a few days only and their groundwater capacity is very limited. The growing need for fresh water has led to significant cost reduction, because of technological improvements of desalination technologies which makes it an attractive option for water supply even in countries where desalination was unthinkable in the past. In the GCC/MENA region, operating records show that water demand is relatively constant during the year, while power demand varies considerably with a high peak in the summer season. However, desalination and power plants are economically and technically efficient only if they are fully operated at close to full capacity. In addition, desalination plants are exposed to external constraints leading to unexpected shutdowns (e.g. red tides). Hybridization of different technologies, including reverse osmosis and thermal-based plants, is used to balance the power to water mismatch in the demand by using the idle power from co-generation systems during low power demand periods. This has led to consideration of storage of additional desalinated water to allow for maximum production and stability in operation. Aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) would then be a good option to store the surplus of desalinated water which could be used when water demand is high or during unexpected shutdowns of desalination plants. In addition, increased reuse of treated wastewater could bring an integrated approach to water resources management. In this

Projecting meat and cereals demand for China based on a meta-analysis of income elasticities

OpenAIRE

Zhou, De; Yu, Xiaohua; Abler, David; Chen, Danhong

2014-01-01

There are many projections for China’s food demand, and the projection results differ significantly from each other. Different values for income elasticities could be a major reason. This study projects meat and cereals demand for China based on a meta-analysis of the income elasticity estimates using a collection of 143 and 240 income elasticity estimates for cereals and meat products, respectively, from 36 primary studies. We find that income elasticities for most cereals (general cereals, ...

Policy implications of the GRI baseline projection of US energy supply and demand to 2010, 1993

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-01-01

The paper summarizes the 1993 edition of the Gas Research Institute (GRI) Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand, and presents the implications of the projection that are important for GRI research and development planning and the gas industry. The survey of supply and demand considerations is followed by a breakdown of energy demand by type of fuel, by consumption sector, and by service application. Gas supply and prices are analyzed in terms of two scenarios: a constrained energy demand scenario, and an optimistic scenario. Tables and charts accompany the summary

Demand-driven water withdrawals by Chinese industry: a multi-regional input-output analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Bo; Chen, Z. M.; Zeng, L.; Qiao, H.; Chen, B.

2016-03-01

With ever increasing water demands and the continuous intensification of water scarcity arising from China's industrialization, the country is struggling to harmonize its industrial development and water supply. This paper presents a systems analysis of water withdrawals by Chinese industry and investigates demand-driven industrial water uses embodied in final demand and interregional trade based on a multi-regional input-output model. In 2007, the Electric Power, Steam, and Hot Water Production and Supply sector ranks first in direct industrial water withdrawal (DWW), and Construction has the largest embodied industrial water use (EWU). Investment, consumption, and exports contribute to 34.6%, 33.3%, and 30.6% of the national total EWU, respectively. Specifically, 58.0%, 51.1%, 48.6%, 43.3%, and 37.5% of the regional EWUs respectively in Guangdong, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Fujian are attributed to international exports. The total interregional import/export of embodied water is equivalent to about 40% of the national total DWW, of which 55.5% is associated with the DWWs of Electric Power, Steam, and Hot Water Production and Supply. Jiangsu is the biggest interregional exporter and deficit receiver of embodied water, in contrast to Guangdong as the biggest interregional importer and surplus receiver. Without implementing effective water-saving measures and adjusting industrial structures, the regional imbalance between water availability and water demand tends to intensify considering the water impact of domestic trade of industrial products. Steps taken to improve water use efficiency in production, and to enhance embodied water saving in consumption are both of great significance for supporting China's water policies.

Project W.A.T.E.R.

Science.gov (United States)

EnviroTeach, 1992

1992-01-01

Introduces networking projects for studying rivers and water quality. Describes two projects in South Africa (Project W.A.T.E.R and SWAP) associated with the international network, Global Rivers Environmental Education Network. Discusses water test kits and educational material developed through Project W.A.T.E.R. (Water Awareness through…

Have Chinese water pricing reforms reduced urban residential water demand?

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, B.; Fang, K. H.; Baerenklau, K. A.

2017-06-01

China continues to deal with severe levels of water scarcity and water pollution. To help address this situation, the Chinese central government initiated urban water pricing reforms in 2002 that emphasized the adoption of increasing block rate (IBR) price structures in place of existing uniform rate structures. By combining urban water use records with microlevel data from the Chinese Urban Household Survey, this research investigates the effectiveness of this national policy reform. Specifically, we compare household water consumption in 28 cities that adopted IBR pricing structures during 2002-2009, with that of 110 cities that had not yet done so. Based on difference-in-differences models, our results show that the policy reform reduced annual residential water demand by 3-4% in the short run and 5% in the longer run. These relatively modest reductions are consistent with the generous nature of the IBR pricing structures that Chinese cities have typically chosen to implement. Our results imply that more efforts are needed to address China's persistent urban water scarcity challenges.

Estimating the Determinants of Residential Water Demand in Italy

OpenAIRE

Giulia Romano; Nicola Salvati; Andrea Guerrini

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to estimate the determinants of residential water demand for chief towns of every Italian province, in the period 2007–2009, using the linear mixed-effects model estimated with the restricted-maximum-likelihood method. Results confirmed that the applied tariff had a negative effect on residential water consumption and that it was a relevant driver of domestic water consumption. Moreover, income per capita had a positive effect on water consumption. Among measured cli...

Water demand studies. [central and southern California regions

Science.gov (United States)

Bowden, L. W.; Estes, J. E.; Churchman, C. W.; Johnson, C. W.; Huning, J. R.; Rozelle, K.; Hamilton, J.; Washburn, G.; Tinney, L. R.; Thaman, R. R.

1973-01-01

The areas of focus of the Santa Barbara and Riverside groups in conducting water demand studies are the central and southern California regional test sites, respectively. Within each test site, sub-areas have been selected for use in the making of detailed investigations. Within each of these sub-areas an in-depth evaluation is being made as to the capability of remote sensing systems to provide pertinent data relative to water demand phenomena. These more limited sub-areas are: (1) Kern County and the San Joaquin Basin; (2) Chino-Riverside Basin; and (3) the Imperial Valley. Rational for the selection of these subareas included the following: Much of the previous remote sensing research had been conducted in these areas and therefore a great deal of remote sensing imagery and pertinent ground truth for the areas was already available.

Sustainability of donor-funded rural water supply and sanitation projects in Mbire district, Zimbabwe

Science.gov (United States)

Kwangware, Johnson; Mayo, Aloyce; Hoko, Zvikomborero

The sustainability of donor-funded rural water supply and sanitation projects was assessed in Mbire district, Zimbabwe in terms of level of community participation, quality of implementation and reliability of the systems. The study was carried out through questionnaires, focus group discussions, interviews and field observations. The results show that the quality of implementation of the projects was deemed to be good and participation of the communities in project ideas initiation and choice of technology was found to be very low. Reliability of the systems was found to be very high with 97% of the boreholes in all the three wards studied being functional. Financial management mechanisms were very poor because water consumers were not willing to pay for operation and maintenance. The projects were classified as potentially sustainable with sustainability index between 5.00 and 6.67. Poor financial management mechanisms for effective borehole maintenance, poor quality of construction and lack of community participation in project planning were found to be potential threats to the sustainability of the projects. Future projects should establish the need for the service and should thus be demand driven to ensure effective participation of the water consumers and enhance project's potential for sustainability.

Comprehensive Forecast of Urban Water-Energy Demand Based on a Neural Network Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ziyi Yin

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Water-energy nexus has been a popular topic of rese arch in recent years. The relationships between the demand for water resources and energy are intense and closely connected in urban areas. The primary, secondary, and tertiary industry gross domestic product (GDP, the total population, the urban population, annual precipitation, agricultural and industrial water consumption, tap water supply, the total discharge of industrial wastewater, the daily sewage treatment capacity, total and domestic electricity consumption, and the consumption of coal in industrial enterprises above the designed size were chosen as input indicators. A feedforward artificial neural network model (ANN based on a back-propagation algorithm with two hidden layers was constructed to combine urban water resources with energy demand. This model used historical data from 1991 to 2016 from Wuxi City, eastern China. Furthermore, a multiple linear regression model (MLR was introduced for comparison with the ANN. The results show the following: (a The mean relative error values of the forecast and historical urban water-energy demands are 1.58 % and 2.71%, respectively; (b The predicted water-energy demand value for 2020 is 4.843 billion cubic meters and 47.561 million tons of standard coal equivalent; (c The predicted water-energy demand value in the year 2030 is 5.887 billion cubic meters and 60.355 million tons of standard coal equivalent; (d Compared with the MLR, the ANN performed better in fitting training data, which achieved a more satisfactory accuracy and may provide a reference for urban water-energy supply planning decisions.

A novel approach for examining future US domestic water demand

Science.gov (United States)

Costs of repairing and expanding aging infrastructure and competing demands for water from other sectors such as industry and agriculture are stretching policy makers’ abilities to meet essential domestic drinking water needs for future generations. Using Bayesian statistic...

Electric Water Heater Modeling and Control Strategies for Demand Response

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Diao, Ruisheng; Lu, Shuai; Elizondo, Marcelo A.; Mayhorn, Ebony T.; Zhang, Yu; Samaan, Nader A.

2012-07-22

Abstract— Demand response (DR) has a great potential to provide balancing services at normal operating conditions and emergency support when a power system is subject to disturbances. Effective control strategies can significantly relieve the balancing burden of conventional generators and reduce investment on generation and transmission expansion. This paper is aimed at modeling electric water heaters (EWH) in households and tests their response to control strategies to implement DR. The open-loop response of EWH to a centralized signal is studied by adjusting temperature settings to provide regulation services; and two types of decentralized controllers are tested to provide frequency support following generator trips. EWH models are included in a simulation platform in DIgSILENT to perform electromechanical simulation, which contains 147 households in a distribution feeder. Simulation results show the dependence of EWH response on water heater usage . These results provide insight suggestions on the need of control strategies to achieve better performance for demand response implementation. Index Terms— Centralized control, decentralized control, demand response, electrical water heater, smart grid

Including Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Policies in Electricity Demand Projections

Science.gov (United States)

Find more information on how state and local air agencies can identify on-the-books EE/RE policies, develop a methodology for projecting a jurisdiction's energy demand, and estimate the change in power sector emissions.

Modelling global water stress of the recent past: on the relative importance of trends in water demand and climate variability

Science.gov (United States)

Wada, Y.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

2011-08-01

During the past decades, human water use more than doubled, yet available freshwater resources are finite. As a result, water scarcity has been prevalent in various regions of the world. Here, we present the first global assessment of past development of water scarcity considering not only climate variability but also growing water demand, desalinated water use and non-renewable groundwater abstraction over the period 1960-2001 at a spatial resolution of 0.5°. Agricultural water demand is estimated based on past extents of irrigated areas and livestock densities. We approximate past economic development based on GDP, energy and household consumption and electricity production, which is subsequently used together with population numbers to estimate industrial and domestic water demand. Climate variability is expressed by simulated blue water availability defined by freshwater in rivers, lakes and reservoirs by means of the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. The results show a drastic increase in the global population living under water-stressed conditions (i.e., moderate to high water stress) due to the growing water demand, primarily for irrigation, which more than doubled from 1708/818 to 3708/1832 km3 yr-1 (gross/net) over the period 1960-2000. We estimate that 800 million people or 27 % of the global population were under water-stressed conditions for 1960. This number increased to 2.6 billion or 43 % for 2000. Our results indicate that increased water demand is the decisive factor for the heightened water stress, enhancing the intensity of water stress up to 200 %, while climate variability is often the main determinant of onsets for extreme events, i.e. major droughts. However, our results also suggest that in several emerging and developing economies (e.g., India, Turkey, Romania and Cuba) some of the past observed droughts were anthropogenically driven due to increased water demand rather than being climate-induced. In those countries, it can be seen

Historical effects of CO2 and climate trends on global crop water demand

Science.gov (United States)

Urban, Daniel W.; Sheffield, Justin; Lobell, David B.

2017-12-01

A critical question for agricultural production and food security is how water demand for staple crops will respond to climate and carbon dioxide (CO2) changes1, especially in light of the expected increases in extreme heat exposure2. To quantify the trade-offs between the effects of climate and CO2 on water demand, we use a `sink-strength' model of demand3,4 which relies on the vapour-pressure deficit (VPD), incident radiation and the efficiencies of canopy-radiation use and canopy transpiration; the latter two are both dependent on CO2. This model is applied to a global data set of gridded monthly weather data over the cropping regions of maize, soybean, wheat and rice during the years 1948-2013. We find that this approach agrees well with Penman-Monteith potential evapotranspiration (PM) for the C3 crops of soybean, wheat and rice, where the competing CO2 effects largely cancel each other out, but that water demand in maize is significantly overstated by a demand measure that does not include CO2, such as the PM. We find the largest changes in wheat, for which water demand has increased since 1981 over 86% of the global cropping area and by 2.3-3.6 percentage points per decade in different regions.

Planning for community resilience to future United States domestic water demand

Science.gov (United States)

Costs of repairing and expanding aging infrastructure and competing demands for water from other sectors such as industry and agriculture are stretching water managers’ abilities to meet essential domestic drinking water needs for future generations. Using Bayesian statistical mo...

Workforce Projections 2010-2020: Annual Supply and Demand Forecasting Models for Physical Therapists Across the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Landry, Michel D; Hack, Laurita M; Coulson, Elizabeth; Freburger, Janet; Johnson, Michael P; Katz, Richard; Kerwin, Joanne; Smith, Megan H; Wessman, Henry C Bud; Venskus, Diana G; Sinnott, Patricia L; Goldstein, Marc

2016-01-01

Health human resources continue to emerge as a critical health policy issue across the United States. The purpose of this study was to develop a strategy for modeling future workforce projections to serve as a basis for analyzing annual supply of and demand for physical therapists across the United States into 2020. A traditional stock-and-flow methodology or model was developed and populated with publicly available data to produce estimates of supply and demand for physical therapists by 2020. Supply was determined by adding the estimated number of physical therapists and the approximation of new graduates to the number of physical therapists who immigrated, minus US graduates who never passed the licensure examination, and an estimated attrition rate in any given year. Demand was determined by using projected US population with health care insurance multiplied by a demand ratio in any given year. The difference between projected supply and demand represented a shortage or surplus of physical therapists. Three separate projection models were developed based on best available data in the years 2011, 2012, and 2013, respectively. Based on these projections, demand for physical therapists in the United States outstrips supply under most assumptions. Workforce projection methodology research is based on assumptions using imperfect data; therefore, the results must be interpreted in terms of overall trends rather than as precise actuarial data-generated absolute numbers from specified forecasting. Outcomes of this projection study provide a foundation for discussion and debate regarding the most effective and efficient ways to influence supply-side variables so as to position physical therapists to meet current and future population demand. Attrition rates or permanent exits out of the profession can have important supply-side effects and appear to have an effect on predicting future shortage or surplus of physical therapists. © 2016 American Physical Therapy

Household demand for water in Sweden with implications of a potential tax on water use

Science.gov (United States)

HöGlund, Lena

1999-12-01

The purpose of this paper is to estimate empirically the effects of a water tax on water use and on the size and stability of the tax revenues. A tax exceeding value-added tax can be motivated on efficiency grounds when there are environmental external costs of water use and when water is a scarce resource. A household demand function for water is estimated using community level data for 282 (out of 286) Swedish communities studied annually over the period 1980-1992. Static and dynamic demand functions are estimated using panel data methods. The results show a long-run price elasticity of -0.10 in marginal price models and -0.20 in average price models. The findings imply that a tax of 1 Swedish Kronor (SEK) m-3 of water used (corresponding to a 5% increase in the mean average price) would generate ˜600 million SEK in tax revenues per year when levied on all households in Sweden. The water consumption would, however, only be reduced by ˜1%.

Projecting supply and demand of hydrologic ecosystem services under future climate conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Chiang, Li-Chi; Huang, Tao; Lee, Tsung-Yu

2014-05-01

Ecosystems provide essential goods and services, such as food, clean water, water purification, soil conservation and cultural services for human being. In a watershed, these water-related ecosystem goods and services can directly or indirectly benefit both local people and downstream beneficiaries through a reservoir. Water quality and quantity in a reservoir are of importance for agricultural, industrial and domestic uses. Under the impacts of climate and land use changes, both ecosystem service supply and demand will be affected by changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, urbanization and agricultural activities. However, the linkage between ecosystem service provisioning (ESP) and ecosystem service beneficiary (ESB), and scales of supply and demand of ecosystem services are not clear yet. Therefore, to investigate water-related ecosystem service supply under climate and land use change, we took the Xindian river watershed (303 km2) as a case study, where the Feitsui Reservoir provides hydro-power and daily domestic water use of 3,450,000 m3 for 3.46 million people in Taipei, Taiwan. We integrated a hydrological model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) and a land use change model (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects, CLUE-s) with future climate change scenarios derived from General Circulation Models (GCMs), to assess the changes in ecosystem service supply and demand at different hydrologic scales. The results will provide useful information for decision-making on future land use management and climate change adaptation strategies in the watersheds. Keywords: climate change, land use change, ecosystem service, watershed, scale

A bottom-up approach of stochastic demand allocation in water quality modelling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Blokker, E.J.M.; Vreeburg, J.H.G.; Beverloo, H.; Klein Arfman, M.; Van Dijk, J.C.

2010-01-01

An “all pipes” hydraulic model of a drinking water distribution system was constructed with two types of demand allocations. One is constructed with the conventional top-down approach, i.e. a demand multiplier pattern from the booster station is allocated to all demand nodes with a correction factor

Combined desalination, water reuse, and aquifer storage and recovery to meet water supply demands in the GCC/MENA region

KAUST Repository

Ghaffour, NorEddine; Missimer, Thomas M.; Amy, Gary L.

2013-01-01

it an attractive option for water supply even in countries where desalination was unthinkable in the past. In the GCC/MENA region, operating records show that water demand is relatively constant during the year, while power demand varies considerably with a high

Projections of Virtual Water Trade Under Agricultural Policy Scenarios in China

Science.gov (United States)

Dalin, C.; Hanasaki, N.; Qiu, H.; Mauzerall, D. L.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.

2014-12-01

China's economic growth is expected to continue into the next decades, accompanied by a sustained urbanization and industrialization. The associated increase in demand for land, water resources and rich foods will deepen the challenge to sustainably feed the population and balance environmental and agricultural policies. In previous work, Inner Mongolia was identified as a target province for trade or agricultural policies aimed at water-use efficiency improvements, due to its large production relying on particularly significant irrigation water use. In addition, water scarcity issues may arises in the greater Beijing area, which represents the largest urban area of arid Northern China. Increasing residential and industrial water demand in this region may lead to fewer available water for irrigation. For these reasons, it is important to estimate the impacts of specific policies aiming at reducing excessive water use for crop production in Inner Mongolia, as well as exploring ways to mitigate pressure on water resources in dry urban areas. In this study, we use socio-economic projections to assess the future state of China's virtual water trade (VWT) network. We then quantify the effects of agricultural policies on the national VWT system and on the efficiency of food trade in terms of water resources. This study addresses the following questions: (1) How future socio-economic changes will affect China's food trade and associated water transfers? (2) To which extent localized reductions of irrigated area can decrease agricultural water use while maintaining national food security? (3) How would these policies affect China's domestic and international VWT network and induced water resources savings (losses)?

The status of water demand management in selected cities of southern Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Gumbo, Bekithemba

As a result of the rapid rate of urbanisation throughout Africa, many African cities face mounting challenges of providing their increasing populations with adequate and sustainable water services. Water demand management (WDM) offers a sustainable solution to water woes experienced in most cities in the southern Africa region. The region is characterised by frequent droughts, floods and erratic, unevenly distributed rainfall. Meanwhile nearly half of the southern Africa’s 200 million inhabitants do not have access to safe water and sanitation. This paper makes an assessment of the status of WDM in eight cities in the region based on published data and reports. It provides a basis of benchmarking the progress and success in WDM programmes by using selected key performance indicators. Gross unaccounted-for-water (UAW) is used as a crude measure of WDM good practice. From the eight selected case studies, Windhoek, Bulawayo and Hermanus have achieved considerable success in water use efficiency, implementing WDM programmes and recording UAW values of less than 20%, whilst Johannesburg; Maputo; Maseru; Lusaka and Mutare cannot account for about 40-60% of the water introduced into the distribution system. WDM projects require some key performance indicators which need to be recorded systematically by water supply agencies to enable a consistent monitoring and evaluation of programme. Finally for WDM to succeed, a new breed of professionals with multi-disciplinary skills is required as well as training of operatives, i.e. technicians, plumbers and meter readers.

Sustainability of mega water diversion projects: Experience and lessons from China.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Min; Wang, Chaoran; Liu, Yi; Olsson, Gustaf; Wang, Chunyan

2018-04-01

Water availability and water demand are not evenly distributed in time and space. Many mega water diversion projects have been launched to alleviate water shortages in China. This paper analyzes the temporal and spatial features of 59 mega water diversion projects in China using statistical analysis. The relationship between nine major basins is measured using a network analysis method, and the associated economic, environmental and social impacts are explored using an impact analysis method. The study finds the development of water diversion has experienced four stages in China, from a starting period through to a period of high-speed development. Both the length of water diversion channels and the amount of transferred water have increased significantly in the past 50years. As of 2015, over 100billionm 3 of water was transferred in China through 16,000km in channels. These projects reached over half of China's provinces. The Yangtze River Basin is now the largest source of transferred water. Through inter-basin water diversion, China gains the opportunity to increase Gross Domestic Product by 4%. However, the construction costs exceed 150 billion US dollars, larger than in any other country. The average cost per unit of transferred water has increased with time and scale but decreased from western to eastern China. Furthermore, annual total energy consumption for pumping exceeded 50billionkilowatt-hours and the related greenhouse gas emissions are estimated to be 48milliontons. It is worth noting that ecological problems caused by water diversion affect the Han River and Yellow River Basins. Over 500 thousand people have been relocated away from their homes due to water diversion. To improve the sustainability of water diversion, four kinds of innovative measures have been provided for decision makers: national diversion guidelines, integrated water basin management, economic incentives and ex-post evaluation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimating the own-price elasticity of demand for irrigation water in the Musi catchment of India

Science.gov (United States)

Davidson, Brian; Hellegers, Petra

2011-10-01

SummaryAs irrigation water is an input into a production process, its demand must be 'derived'. According to theory, a derived demand schedule should be downward sloping and dependent on the outputs produced from it, the prices of other inputs and the price of the water itself. Problems arise when an attempt is made to estimate the demand for irrigation water and the resulting own-price elasticity of demand, as the uses to which water is put are spatially, temporarily and geographically diverse. Because water is not generally freely traded, what normally passes for an estimate of the own-price elasticity of demand for irrigation water is usually a well argued assumption or an estimate that is derived from a simulation model of a hypothesized producer. Such approaches tend to provide an inadequate explanation of what is an extremely complex and important relationship. An adequate explanation of the relationship between the price and the quantity demanded of water should be one that not only accords with the theoretical expectations, but also accounts for the diversity of products produced from water (which includes the management practices of farmers), the seasons in which it is used and over the region within which it is used. The objective in this article is to present a method of estimating the demand curve for irrigation water. The method uses actual field data which is collated using the Residual Method to determine the value of the marginal product of water deployed over a wide range of crops, seasons and regions. These values of the marginal products, all which must lie of the input demand schedule for water, are then ordered from the highest value to the lowest. Then, the amount of irrigation water used for each product, in each season and in each region is cumulatively summed over the range of uses according to the order of the values of the marginal products. This data, once ordered, is then used to econometrically estimate the demand schedule from which

The Climaware project: Impacts of climate change on water resources management - regional strategies and European view

Science.gov (United States)

Thirel, Guillaume; D'Agostino, Daniela; Démerliac, Stéphane; Dorchies, David; Flörke, Martina; Jay-Allemand, Maxime; Jost, Claudine; Kehr, Katrin; Perrin, Charles; Scardigno, Alessandra; Schneider, Christof; Theobald, Stephan; Träbing, Klaus

2014-05-01

Climate projections produced with CMIP5 and applied by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its fifth assessment report indicate that changes in precipitation and temperature are expected to occur throughout Europe in the 21th century, with a likely decrease of water availability in many regions. Besides, water demand is also expected to increase, in link with these expected climate modifications, but also due to socio-economic and demographic changes. In this respect, the use of future freshwater resources may not be sustainable from the current water management perspective. Therefore adaptation strategies will most likely be needed to cope with these evolutions. In this context, the main objective of the ClimAware project (2010-2013 - www.uni-kassel.de/fb14/wasserbau/CLIMAWARE/, a project implemented within the IWRM-NET Funding Initiative) was to analyse the impacts of climate change (CC) on freshwater resources at the continental and regional scales and to identify efficient adaptation strategies to improve water management for various socio-economic sectors. This should contribute to a more effective implementation of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) and its instruments (river basin management plans, programmes of measures). The project developed integrated measures for improved freshwater management under CC constraints. More specifically, the objectives of the ClimAware project were to: • elaborate quantitative projections of changes in river flows and consequences such as flood frequency, drought occurrence and sectorial water uses. • analyse the effect of CC on the hydromorphological reference conditions of rivers and therefore the definition of "good status". • define management rules/strategies concerning dam management and irrigation practices on different time perspectives. • investigate uncertainties in climate model - scenario combinations. The research approach considered both European and regional perspectives, to get

Water Recovery Project

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The AES Water Recovery Project (WRP) is advancing environmental control and life support systems water recovery technologies to support human exploration beyond low...

Meeting multiple demands: Water transaction opportunities for environmental benefits promoting adaptation to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

McCoy, Amy

2015-04-01

In arid regions, the challenge of balancing water use among a diversity of sectors expands in lock step with conditions of water stress that are exacerbated by climate variability, prolonged drought, and growing water-use demands. The elusiveness of achieving a sustainable balance under conditions of environmental change in the southwestern United States is evidenced by reductions in both overall water availability and freshwater ecosystem health, as well as by recent projections of shortages on the Colorado River within the next five years. The water sustainability challenge in this region, as well as drylands throughout the world, can therefore be viewed through the lens of water stress, a condition wherein demands on land and water -- including the needs of freshwater ecosystems -- exceed reliable supplies, and the full range of water needs cannot be met without tradeoffs across multiple uses. Water stress influences not only ecosystems, but a region's economy, land management, quality of life, and cultural heritage -- each of which requires water to thrive. With respect to promoting successful adaptation to climate change, achieving full water sustainability would allow for water to be successfully divided among water users -- including municipalities, agriculture, and freshwater ecosystems -- at a level that meets the goals of water users and the governing body. Over the last ten to fifteen years, the use of transactional approaches in the western U.S., Mexico, and Australia has proven to be a viable management tool for achieving stream flow and shallow aquifer restoration. By broad definition, environmental water transactions are an equitable and adaptable tool that brings diverse stakeholders to the table to facilitate a fair-market exchange of rights to use water in a manner that benefits both water users and the environment. This talk will present a basic framework of necessary stakeholder engagement, hydrologic conditions, enabling laws and policies

Water Demand Management for Social Justice — Women, like men ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

2010-12-22

Dec 22, 2010 ... ... and management of water projects enhances the intended results of projects and contributes to the sustainability of water resources as well as to social justice. ... Women's rights and access to water and sanitation in Delhi.

Projections of highway vehicle population, energy demand, and CO{sub 2} emissions in India through 2040.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Arora, S.; Vyas, A.; Johnson, L.; Energy Systems

2011-02-22

This paper presents projections of motor vehicles, oil demand, and carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions for India through the year 2040. The populations of highway vehicles and two-wheelers are projected under three different scenarios on the basis of economic growth and average household size in India. The results show that by 2040, the number of highway vehicles in India would be 206-309 million. The oil demand projections for the Indian transportation sector are based on a set of nine scenarios arising out of three vehicle-growth and three fuel-economy scenarios. The combined effects of vehicle-growth and fuel-economy scenarios, together with the change in annual vehicle usage, result in a projected demand in 2040 by the transportation sector in India of 404-719 million metric tons (8.5-15.1 million barrels per day). The corresponding annual CO{sub 2} emissions are projected to be 1.2-2.2 billion metric tons.

Leadership in project-based organizations: Dealing with complex and paradoxical demands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Havermans, L.A.

2014-01-01

Despite the overwhelming amount of attention given by scientists and practitioners to leadership, most theories of leadership have been developed to explain the role of leadership in traditional line organizations, not to explain how leaders deal with complex and paradoxical demands in project-based

Modeling and Forecasting of Water Demand in Isfahan Using Underlying Trend Concept and Time Series

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Sadeghi

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Accurate water demand modeling for the city is very important for forecasting and policies adoption related to water resources management. Thus, for future requirements of water estimation, forecasting and modeling, it is important to utilize models with little errors. Water has a special place among the basic human needs, because it not hampers human life. The importance of the issue of water management in the extraction and consumption, it is necessary as a basic need. Municipal water applications is include a variety of water demand for domestic, public, industrial and commercial. Predicting the impact of urban water demand in better planning of water resources in arid and semiarid regions are faced with water restrictions. Materials and Methods: One of the most important factors affecting the changing technological advances in production and demand functions, we must pay special attention to the layout pattern. Technology development is concerned not only technically, but also other aspects such as personal, non-economic factors (population, geographical and social factors can be analyzed. Model examined in this study, a regression model is composed of a series of structural components over time allows changed invisible accidentally. Explanatory variables technology (both crystalline and amorphous in a model according to which the material is said to be better, but because of the lack of measured variables over time can not be entered in the template. Model examined in this study, a regression model is composed of a series of structural component invisible accidentally changed over time allows. In this study, structural time series (STSM and ARMA time series models have been used to model and estimate the water demand in Isfahan. Moreover, in order to find the efficient procedure, both models have been compared to each other. The desired data in this research include water consumption in Isfahan, water price and the monthly pay

Clustering and Support Vector Regression for Water Demand Forecasting and Anomaly Detection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonio Candelieri

2017-03-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a completely data-driven and machine-learning-based approach, in two stages, to first characterize and then forecast hourly water demand in the short term with applications of two different data sources: urban water demand (SCADA data and individual customer water consumption (AMR data. In the first case, reliable forecasting can be used to optimize operations, particularly the pumping schedule, in order to reduce energy-related costs, while in the second case, the comparison between forecast and actual values may support the online detection of anomalies, such as smart meter faults, fraud or possible cyber-physical attacks. Results are presented for a real case: the water distribution network in Milan.

Climate change and water supply and demand in western Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lawford, R.G.

1990-01-01

There is reason to be concerned that water resources on the Canadian Prairies could be at considerable risk due to climatic change. The Canadian Prairies frequently experience variations in the climate, which can reduce crop production by 25-50% and annual volumetric river flows by 70-90%. The potential impacts of climatic change on the Prairies are discussed. Consumptive water uses on the Prairies are dominated by irrigation and the water demands arising from thermal power generation. The overall effect of climatic change on water supplies will depend on the ways in which the various components of the hydrological cycle are affected. At the present time it is unsure whether complementary equations are more realistic in estimating evaporation than mass balance techniques. There is a need to obtain good baseline data which will allow the unequivocal resolution of the most accurate technique for estimating evaporation on the Prairies. Climate change could lead to a decrease in spring runoff, and would also lead to earlier snowmelt and peak flows. This could lead to a longer period of low flows during the summer and fall and a further drawdown of moisture reserves. Some appropriate strategies for adapting to climate change would be: encouraging water conservation; reductions in agricultural water use by developing/utilizing strains of plants with lower water demand; controlling new water developments; and enhancing on-farm retention. 10 refs

Demand Estimation for Irrigation Water in the Moroccan Drâa Valley using Contingent Valuation

OpenAIRE

Storm, Hugo; Heckelei, Thomas; Heidecke, Claudia

2010-01-01

Irrigation water management is crucial for agricultural production and livelihood security in Morocco as in many other parts of the world. For the implementation of an effective water management knowledge about farmers’ irrigation water demand is crucial to assess demand reactions of a water pricing policy, to establish a cost-benefit analysis of water supply investments or to determine the optimal water allocation between different users. Previously used econometric methods providing this in...

Climate Change and European Water Bodies, a Review of Existing Gaps and Future Research Needs: Findings of the ClimateWater Project

Science.gov (United States)

Garnier, Monica; Harper, David M.; Blaskovicova, Lotta; Hancz, Gabriella; Janauer, Georg A.; Jolánkai, Zsolt; Lanz, Eva; Porto, Antonio Lo; Mándoki, Monika; Pataki, Beata; Rahuel, Jean-Luc; Robinson, Victoria J.; Stoate, Chris; Tóth, Eszter; Jolánkai, Géza

2015-08-01

There is general agreement among scientists that global temperatures are rising and will continue to increase in the future. It is also agreed that human activities are the most important causes of these climatic variations, and that water resources are already suffering and will continue to be greatly impaired as a consequence of these changes. In particular, it is probable that areas with limited water resources will expand and that an increase of global water demand will occur, estimated to be around 35-60 % by 2025 as a consequence of population growth and the competing needs of water uses. This will cause a growing imbalance between water demand (including the needs of nature) and supply. This urgency demands that climate change impacts on water be evaluated in different sectors using a cross-cutting approach (Contestabile in Nat Clim Chang 3:11-12, 2013). These issues were examined by the EU FP7-funded Co-ordination and support action "ClimateWater" (bridging the gap between adaptation strategies of climate change impacts and European water policies). The project studied adaptation strategies to minimize the water-related consequences of climate change and assessed how these strategies should be taken into consideration by European policies. This article emphasizes that knowledge gaps still exist about the direct effects of climate change on water bodies and their indirect impacts on production areas that employ large amounts of water (e.g., agriculture). Some sectors, such as ecohydrology and alternative sewage treatment technologies, could represent a powerful tool to mitigate climate change impacts. Research needs in these still novel fields are summarized.

Climate Change and European Water Bodies, a Review of Existing Gaps and Future Research Needs: Findings of the ClimateWater Project.

Science.gov (United States)

Garnier, Monica; Harper, David M; Blaskovicova, Lotta; Hancz, Gabriella; Janauer, Georg A; Jolánkai, Zsolt; Lanz, Eva; Lo Porto, Antonio; Mándoki, Monika; Pataki, Beata; Rahuel, Jean-Luc; Robinson, Victoria J; Stoate, Chris; Tóth, Eszter; Jolánkai, Géza

2015-08-01

There is general agreement among scientists that global temperatures are rising and will continue to increase in the future. It is also agreed that human activities are the most important causes of these climatic variations, and that water resources are already suffering and will continue to be greatly impaired as a consequence of these changes. In particular, it is probable that areas with limited water resources will expand and that an increase of global water demand will occur, estimated to be around 35-60% by 2025 as a consequence of population growth and the competing needs of water uses. This will cause a growing imbalance between water demand (including the needs of nature) and supply. This urgency demands that climate change impacts on water be evaluated in different sectors using a cross-cutting approach (Contestabile in Nat Clim Chang 3:11-12, 2013). These issues were examined by the EU FP7-funded Co-ordination and support action "ClimateWater" (bridging the gap between adaptation strategies of climate change impacts and European water policies). The project studied adaptation strategies to minimize the water-related consequences of climate change and assessed how these strategies should be taken into consideration by European policies. This article emphasizes that knowledge gaps still exist about the direct effects of climate change on water bodies and their indirect impacts on production areas that employ large amounts of water (e.g., agriculture). Some sectors, such as ecohydrology and alternative sewage treatment technologies, could represent a powerful tool to mitigate climate change impacts. Research needs in these still novel fields are summarized.

Modeling and managing urban water demand through smart meters: Benefits and challenges from current research and emerging trends

Science.gov (United States)

Cominola, A.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.; Piga, D.; Rizzoli, A. E.

2015-12-01

Urban population growth, climate and land use change are expected to boost residential water demand in urban contexts in the next decades. In such a context, developing suitable demand-side management strategies is essential to meet future water demands, pursue water savings, and reduce the costs for water utilities. Yet, the effectiveness of water demand management strategies (WDMS) relies on our understanding of water consumers' behavior, their consumption habits, and the water use drivers. While low spatial and temporal resolution water consumption data, as traditionally gathered for billing purposes, hardly support this understanding, the advent of high-resolution, smart metering technologies allowed for quasi real-time monitoring water consumption at the single household level. This, in turn, is advancing our ability in characterizing consumers' behavior, modeling, and designing user-oriented residential water demand management strategies. Several water smart metering programs have been rolled-out in the last two decades worldwide, addressing one or more of the following water demand management phases: (i) data gathering, (ii) water end-uses characterization, (iii) user modeling, (iv) design and implementation of personalized WDMS. Moreover, the number of research studies in this domain is quickly increasing and big economic investments are currently being devoted worldwide to smart metering programs. With this work, we contribute the first comprehensive review of more than 100 experiences in the field of residential water demand modeling and management, and we propose a general framework for their classification. We revise consolidated practices, identify emerging trends and highlight the challenges and opportunities for future developments given by the use of smart meters advancing residential water demand management. Our analysis of the status quo of smart urban water demand management research and market constitutes a structured collection of information

Supply and Demand for Radiation Oncology in the United States: Updated Projections for 2015 to 2025

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pan, Hubert Y.; Haffty, Bruce G.; Falit, Benjamin P.; Buchholz, Thomas A.; Wilson, Lynn D.; Hahn, Stephen M.; Smith, Benjamin D.

2016-01-01

Purpose: Prior studies have forecasted demand for radiation therapy to grow 10 times faster than the supply between 2010 and 2020. We updated these projections for 2015 to 2025 to determine whether this imbalance persists and to assess the accuracy of prior projections. Methods and Materials: The demand for radiation therapy between 2015 and 2025 was estimated by combining current radiation utilization rates determined by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data with population projections provided by the US Census Bureau. The supply of radiation oncologists was forecast by using workforce demographics and full-time equivalent (FTE) status provided by the American Society for Radiation Oncology (ASTRO), current resident class sizes, and expected survival per life tables from the US Centers for Disease Control. Results: Between 2015 and 2025, the annual total number of patients receiving radiation therapy during their initial treatment course is expected to increase by 19%, from 490,000 to 580,000. Assuming a graduating resident class size of 200, the number of FTE physicians is expected to increase by 27%, from 3903 to 4965. In comparison with prior projections, the new projected demand for radiation therapy in 2020 dropped by 24,000 cases (a 4% relative decline). This decrease is attributable to an overall reduction in the use of radiation to treat cancer, from 28% of all newly diagnosed cancers in the prior projections down to 26% for the new projections. By contrast, the new projected supply of radiation oncologists in 2020 increased by 275 FTEs in comparison with the prior projection for 2020 (a 7% relative increase), attributable to rising residency class sizes. Conclusion: The supply of radiation oncologists is expected to grow more quickly than the demand for radiation therapy from 2015 to 2025. Further research is needed to determine whether this is an appropriate correction or will result in excess capacity.

Supply and Demand for Radiation Oncology in the United States: Updated Projections for 2015 to 2025

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pan, Hubert Y. [Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Haffty, Bruce G. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Robert Wood Johnson Medical School – University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey, New Brunswick, New Jersey (United States); Falit, Benjamin P. [Radiation Oncology Associates, Lowell, Massachusetts (United States); Buchholz, Thomas A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Wilson, Lynn D. [Department of Therapeutic Radiology, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut (United States); Hahn, Stephen M. [Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Smith, Benjamin D., E-mail: bsmith3@mdanderson.org [Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States)

2016-11-01

Purpose: Prior studies have forecasted demand for radiation therapy to grow 10 times faster than the supply between 2010 and 2020. We updated these projections for 2015 to 2025 to determine whether this imbalance persists and to assess the accuracy of prior projections. Methods and Materials: The demand for radiation therapy between 2015 and 2025 was estimated by combining current radiation utilization rates determined by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data with population projections provided by the US Census Bureau. The supply of radiation oncologists was forecast by using workforce demographics and full-time equivalent (FTE) status provided by the American Society for Radiation Oncology (ASTRO), current resident class sizes, and expected survival per life tables from the US Centers for Disease Control. Results: Between 2015 and 2025, the annual total number of patients receiving radiation therapy during their initial treatment course is expected to increase by 19%, from 490,000 to 580,000. Assuming a graduating resident class size of 200, the number of FTE physicians is expected to increase by 27%, from 3903 to 4965. In comparison with prior projections, the new projected demand for radiation therapy in 2020 dropped by 24,000 cases (a 4% relative decline). This decrease is attributable to an overall reduction in the use of radiation to treat cancer, from 28% of all newly diagnosed cancers in the prior projections down to 26% for the new projections. By contrast, the new projected supply of radiation oncologists in 2020 increased by 275 FTEs in comparison with the prior projection for 2020 (a 7% relative increase), attributable to rising residency class sizes. Conclusion: The supply of radiation oncologists is expected to grow more quickly than the demand for radiation therapy from 2015 to 2025. Further research is needed to determine whether this is an appropriate correction or will result in excess capacity.

Clean Water State Revolving Fund (CWSRF): Water Conservation

Science.gov (United States)

The CWSRF can provide financial assistance for water conservation projects that reduce the demand for POTW capacity through reduced water consumption (i.e., water efficiency), as well as water reuse and precipitation harvesting.

Estimation of area and income elasticities of water demand in a number of cities and towns in Gauteng

OpenAIRE

2012-01-01

M.Ing. Water demand prediction can be useful for future planning and has a significant economic effect on a city, town or suburb. There are numerous factors influencing water demand and therefore influencing the prediction thereof. The effect of each of these factors on the water demand is called the elasticity of that factor. The main aim of this study is to determine area and income elasticities of demand. This will enable the reader to predict water demand by taking stand size (area) an...

Tourism and water use: Supply, demand, and security. An international review

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gössling, S.; Peeters, P.M.; Hall, C.M.; Ceron, J.P.; Dubois, G.; Lehmann, L.V.; Scott, D.

2012-01-01

This article reviews direct freshwater consumption in tourism from both quantitative and qualitative viewpoints to assess the current water demand of the tourism sector and to identify current and future management challenges. The article concludes that even though tourism increases global water

The analysis of clean water demand for land use optimization based on water resource balance in Balikpapan city

Science.gov (United States)

Ghozali, Achmad; Yanti, Rossana Margaret Kadar

2017-11-01

Balikpapan city has transformed from oil city to trade and industry center. In the last 5 years, industry and trade sectors experienced annual economic growth by more than 25%, while mining had only 0.05%. This condition raised a strong economic attraction which increased urban activities and population growth, especially urbanization process. Nevertheless, the growth of the city had a challenge in the urban water supply. Due to natural condition of the city, Balikpapan does not have a large river, making water supply conducted by reservoirs relying on rainfall intensity. In line with population growth and conversion of green open space, the city government should consider to the allocation of land use effectively based on sustainable water resources. As the associated pressure on water resources continued to increase, it is crucial to identify the water demand future in Balikpapan City related to domestic and non-domestic activities as the first step to optimize land use allocation. Domestic's activities is defined as household and public hydrant, while non-domestic sectors are public facilities, offices, trade and services, and industrial areas. Mathematical calculations, population projections and water consumption estimation, were used as analysis methods. Analysis result showed that the total the city population in 2025 amounted to 740.302 people, increasing by 14.5% from 2016. Population growth increased the urban water needs. From the calculations, the amount of water consumption in 2016 amounted to 5075.77 liter/s, and in 2025 to 7528.59 liter/s. Thus, the water needs of the population of Balikpapan from 2016-2025 year increased by 32.58%.

The clinical endocrinology workforce: current status and future projections of supply and demand.

Science.gov (United States)

Vigersky, Robert A; Fish, Lisa; Hogan, Paul; Stewart, Andrew; Kutler, Stephanie; Ladenson, Paul W; McDermott, Michael; Hupart, Kenneth H

2014-09-01

Many changes in health care delivery, health legislation, and the physician workforce that affect the supply and demand for endocrinology services have occurred since the first published workforce study of adult endocrinologists in 2003. The objective of the study was to assess the current adult endocrinology workforce data and provide the first analysis of the pediatric endocrinology workforce and to project the supply of and demand for endocrinologists through 2025. A workforce model was developed from an analysis of proprietary and publicly available databases, consultation with a technical expert panel, and the results of an online survey of board-certified endocrinologists. The Endocrine Society commissioned The Lewin Group to estimate current supply and to project gaps between supply and demand for endocrinologists. A technical expert panel of senior endocrinologists provided context, clinical information, and direction. The following were measured: 1) the current adult and pediatric endocrinology workforce and the supply of and demand for endocrinologists through 2025 and 2) the number of additional entrants into the endocrinology work pool that would be required to close the gap between supply and demand. Currently there is a shortage of approximately 1500 adult and 100 pediatric full-time equivalent endocrinologists. The gap for adult endocrinologists will expand to 2700 without an increase in the number of fellows trained. An increase in the prevalence of diabetes mellitus further expands the demand for adult endocrinologists. The gap can be closed in 5 and 10 years by increasing the number of fellowship positions by 14.4% and 5.5% per year, respectively. The gap between supply and demand for pediatric endocrinologists will close by 2016, and thereafter an excess supply over demand will develop at the current rate of new entrants into the work force. There are insufficient adult endocrinologists to satisfy current and future demand. A number of proactive

Worldwide transportation/energy demand, 1975-2000. Revised Variflex model projections

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ayres, R.U.; Ayres, L.W.

1980-03-01

The salient features of the transportation-energy relationships that characterize the world of 1975 are reviewed, and worldwide (34 countries) long-range transportation demand by mode to the year 2000 is reviewed. A worldwide model is used to estimate future energy demand for transportation. Projections made by the forecasting model indicate that in the year 2000, every region will be more dependent on petroleum for the transportation sector than it was in 1975. This report is intended to highlight certain trends and to suggest areas for further investigation. Forecast methodology and model output are described in detail in the appendices. The report is one of a series addressing transportation energy consumption; it supplants and replaces an earlier version published in October 1978 (ORNL/Sub-78/13536/1).

Piped water consumption in Ghana: A case study of temporal and spatial patterns of clean water demand relative to alternative water sources in rural small towns.

Science.gov (United States)

Kulinkina, Alexandra V; Kosinski, Karen C; Liss, Alexander; Adjei, Michael N; Ayamgah, Gilbert A; Webb, Patrick; Gute, David M; Plummer, Jeanine D; Naumova, Elena N

2016-07-15

Continuous access to adequate quantities of safe water is essential for human health and socioeconomic development. Piped water systems (PWSs) are an increasingly common type of water supply in rural African small towns. We assessed temporal and spatial patterns in water consumption from public standpipes of four PWSs in Ghana in order to assess clean water demand relative to other available water sources. Low water consumption was evident in all study towns, which manifested temporally and spatially. Temporal variability in water consumption that is negatively correlated with rainfall is an indicator of rainwater preference when it is available. Furthermore, our findings show that standpipes in close proximity to alternative water sources such as streams and hand-dug wells suffer further reductions in water consumption. Qualitative data suggest that consumer demand in the study towns appears to be driven more by water quantity, accessibility, and perceived aesthetic water quality, as compared to microbiological water quality or price. In settings with chronic under-utilization of improved water sources, increasing water demand through household connections, improving water quality with respect to taste and appropriateness for laundry, and educating residents about health benefits of using piped water should be prioritized. Continued consumer demand and sufficient revenue generation are important attributes of a water service that ensure its function over time. Our findings suggest that analyzing water consumption of existing metered PWSs in combination with qualitative approaches may enable more efficient planning of community-based water supplies and support sustainable development. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Water resources adaptation to climate and demand change in the Potomac river

Science.gov (United States)

The effects of climate change are increasingly considered in conjunction with changes in water demand and reservoir sedimentation in forecasts of water supply vulnerability. Here, the relative effects of these factors are evaluated for the Washington, DC metropolitan area water supply for the near f...

Water demand management in times of drought: What matters for water conservation

Science.gov (United States)

Maggioni, Elena

2015-01-01

Southern California is subject to long droughts and short wet spells. Its water agencies have put in place voluntary, mandatory, and market-based conservation strategies since the 1980s. By analyzing water agencies' data between 2006 and 2010, this research studies whether rebates for water efficient fixtures, water rates, or water ordinances have been effective, and tests whether structural characteristics of water agencies have affected the policy outcome. It finds that mandates to curb outdoor water uses are correlated with reductions in residential per capita water usage, while water rates and subsidies for water saving devices are not. It also confirms that size is a significant policy implementation factor. In a policy perspective, the transition from a water supply to a water demand management-oriented strategy appears guided by mandates and by contextual factors such as the economic cycle and the weather that occur outside the water governance system. Three factors could improve the conservation effort: using prices as a conservation tool, not only as a cost recovering instrument; investing in water efficient tools only when they provide significant water savings; supporting smaller agencies in order to give them opportunities to implement conservation strategies more effectively or to help them consolidate.

Estimating irrigation water demand in the Moroccan Drâa Valley using contingent valuation.

Science.gov (United States)

Storm, Hugo; Heckelei, Thomas; Heidecke, Claudia

2011-10-01

Irrigation water management is crucial for agricultural production and livelihood security in Morocco as in many other parts of the world. For the implementation of an effective water management, knowledge about farmers' demand for irrigation water is crucial to assess reactions to water pricing policy, to establish a cost-benefit analysis of water supply investments or to determine the optimal water allocation between different users. Previously used econometric methods providing this information often have prohibitive data requirements. In this paper, the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) is adjusted to derive a demand function for irrigation water along farmers' willingness to pay for one additional unit of surface water or groundwater. An application in the Middle Drâa Valley in Morocco shows that the method provides reasonable results in an environment with limited data availability. For analysing the censored survey data, the Least Absolute Deviation estimator was found to be a more suitable alternative to the Tobit model as errors are heteroscedastic and non-normally distributed. The adjusted CVM to derive demand functions is especially attractive for water scarce countries under limited data availability. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Determination of hourly contract heat and water flow and demand of the tariffs; Tuntinen tilaustehon ja -vesivirran maeaeritys ja tariffien vaatimukset

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hippinen, I.; Pirhonen, J.; Ahtila, P. [Helsinki University of Technology, Otaniemi (Finland); Maekelae, V.M. [Komartek Oy, Lappeenranta (Finland)

2000-07-01

This is the final report of the research project 'Determination of hourly contract heat and water flow and demand of the tariffs', which was carried out by the Helsinki University of Technology and Komartek Oy. The report consists of two parts. Part A presents the study of the Helsinki University of Technology, in which the consumption of domestic hot water in different size houses were clarified. Part B presents the tariff calculations carried out by Komartek Oy. In the part of the Helsinki University of Technology, the consumption of hot household water has been measured in different sized houses in order to determine their real demand of district heat and heat exhanger capacity. Including earlier measurements, measurements were carried out in 35 buildings. The size of the houses varied from a two-family house to a house of 204 flats. The domestic hot water flows and water temperatures to and from the heat exchanger were measured continuously during periods of a day and a week. To find out the congruence between reality and the dimensioning standards, the measurement results have been compared with the current dimensioning standards. It became evident in the study, that the current dimensioning standards are considerably oversized. Measured maximum heat consumptions were in general less than half of the dimensioned maximums. Operation times for the maximum loads were very short timed, ranging from some tens of seconds to a couple of minutes. The maximum peak loads were either in the mornings or in the evenings. However, no special week-days with clear maximum loads were found during week measurements. In second part was studied how the domestic hot water consumption will influence on the incomes of a DH company and payments of different kinds of customers. Domestic hot water was calculated as a one hour maximum. It was found out that there were outstanding differences in payments of different sizes of customers between different tariffs when the total

A multi-scale relevance vector regression approach for daily urban water demand forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Bai, Yun; Wang, Pu; Li, Chuan; Xie, Jingjing; Wang, Yin

2014-09-01

Water is one of the most important resources for economic and social developments. Daily water demand forecasting is an effective measure for scheduling urban water facilities. This work proposes a multi-scale relevance vector regression (MSRVR) approach to forecast daily urban water demand. The approach uses the stationary wavelet transform to decompose historical time series of daily water supplies into different scales. At each scale, the wavelet coefficients are used to train a machine-learning model using the relevance vector regression (RVR) method. The estimated coefficients of the RVR outputs for all of the scales are employed to reconstruct the forecasting result through the inverse wavelet transform. To better facilitate the MSRVR forecasting, the chaos features of the daily water supply series are analyzed to determine the input variables of the RVR model. In addition, an adaptive chaos particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to find the optimal combination of the RVR model parameters. The MSRVR approach is evaluated using real data collected from two waterworks and is compared with recently reported methods. The results show that the proposed MSRVR method can forecast daily urban water demand much more precisely in terms of the normalized root-mean-square error, correlation coefficient, and mean absolute percentage error criteria.

A Probabilistic Short-Term Water Demand Forecasting Model Based on the Markov Chain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Francesca Gagliardi

2017-07-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a short-term water demand forecasting method based on the use of the Markov chain. This method provides estimates of future demands by calculating probabilities that the future demand value will fall within pre-assigned intervals covering the expected total variability. More specifically, two models based on homogeneous and non-homogeneous Markov chains were developed and presented. These models, together with two benchmark models (based on artificial neural network and naïve methods, were applied to three real-life case studies for the purpose of forecasting the respective water demands from 1 to 24 h ahead. The results obtained show that the model based on a homogeneous Markov chain provides more accurate short-term forecasts than the one based on a non-homogeneous Markov chain, which is in line with the artificial neural network model. Both Markov chain models enable probabilistic information regarding the stochastic demand forecast to be easily obtained.

LOW WATER DEMAND CEMENTS - WAY OF EFFICIENT USE OF CLINKER AND MINERAL FILLERS IN CONCRETES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Khokhryakov Oleg Viktorovich

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Subject: the provisions in the updated edition of the technical specifications for cements are analyzed. A trend to decrease the clinker volume in Portland cement due to the wider use of mineral additives, up to 95%, was observed. Research objectives: substantiation of the most complete and efficient use of Portland cement and mineral additives in the composition of low water demand cements. Materials and methods: portland cement, mineral additives and superplasticizer were used as raw materials for obtaining cements of low water demand. The experimental methods comply with the current standards. Results: comparative properties of low water demand cements and cements with mineral additives are presented. The properties of cement-water suspensions of these binders have been studied, and, on their basis, heavy concretes have been made. The results of the grindability of Portland cement and mineral components with a superplasticizer are given. Conclusions: it is shown that the cement of low water demand, in which the advantages of both Portland cement and mineral additives are more fully and efficiently presented, complies with the tendency to decrease the clinker volume to the greatest degree. It is established that the clinker volume index for heavy concrete prepared on low water demand cement is almost four times lower than that for heavy concrete based on common Portland cement.

Prospects of natural gas demand and pipeline projects in the East Asia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ishii, A.

1997-01-01

The development of the natural gas industry in East Asia was discussed. It was predicted that by 2010, the demand for natural gas could potentially reach 80 billion cubic feet per day. This represents an 8 per cent per year growth rate from a 1995 baseline. Similarly, it was predicted that by 2010, the region's natural gas supply could potentially reach 65 billion cubic feet per day which would represent 2.5 times the supply of natural gas in 1995. The additional demand will most likely be supplied from the Middle East in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG), from Eastern Russia through pipelines of LNG, or from North America in the form of LNG. Some gas may also be supplied from Central Asia through pipelines. The price and cost of natural gas are major uncertainties in the future of the East Asian gas demand. Pipeline projects from Russia to China were discussed. Japan and Korea are also interested in collaborating on the feasibility study with Russia and China on a 3,400 km pipeline of 60 inch diameter from the Koviktinskoye gas field through Mongolia to Beijing, Tianjin and Korea, transporting 20 to 30 billion cubic metres of gas annually. A natural gas pipeline project transporting gas from the southern edge of the Sakhalin Island to the Tokyo area was also discussed. The project would involve construction of a 2,200 km 40-48 inch pipeline, much of it undersea, transporting 6 to 12 million tonnes of liquid natural gas, annually

2015 American College of Rheumatology Workforce Study: Supply and Demand Projections of Adult Rheumatology Workforce, 2015-2030.

Science.gov (United States)

Battafarano, Daniel F; Ditmyer, Marcia; Bolster, Marcy B; Fitzgerald, John D; Deal, Chad; Bass, Ann R; Molina, Rodolfo; Erickson, Alan R; Hausmann, Jonathan S; Klein-Gitelman, Marisa; Imundo, Lisa F; Smith, Benjamin J; Jones, Karla; Greene, Kamilah; Monrad, Seetha U

2018-04-01

To describe the character and composition of the 2015 US adult rheumatology workforce, evaluate workforce trends, and project supply and demand for clinical rheumatology care for 2015-2030. The 2015 Workforce Study of Rheumatology Specialists in the US used primary and secondary data sources to estimate the baseline adult rheumatology workforce and determine demographic and geographic factors relevant to workforce modeling. Supply and demand was projected through 2030, utilizing data-driven estimations regarding the proportion and clinical full-time equivalent (FTE) of academic versus nonacademic practitioners. The 2015 adult workforce (physicians, nurse practitioners, and physician assistants) was estimated to be 6,013 providers (5,415 clinical FTE). At baseline, the estimated demand exceeded the supply of clinical FTE by 700 (12.9%). By 2030, the supply of rheumatology clinical providers is projected to fall to 4,882 providers, or 4,051 clinical FTE (a 25.2% decrease in supply from 2015 baseline levels). Demand in 2030 is projected to exceed supply by 4,133 clinical FTE (102%). The adult rheumatology workforce projections reflect a major demographic and geographic shift that will significantly impact the supply of the future workforce by 2030. These shifts include baby-boomer retirements, a millennial predominance, and an increase of female and part-time providers, in parallel with an increased demand for adult rheumatology care due to the growing and aging US population. Regional and innovative strategies will be necessary to manage access to care and reduce barriers to care for rheumatology patients. © 2018, American College of Rheumatology.

Life cycle water demand coefficients for crude oil production from five North American locations.

Science.gov (United States)

Ali, Babkir; Kumar, Amit

2017-10-15

The production of liquid fuels from crude oil requires water. There has been limited focus on the assessment of life cycle water demand footprints for crude oil production and refining. The overall aim of this paper is address this gap. The objective of this research is to develop water demand coefficients over the life cycle of fuels produced from crude oil pathways. Five crude oil fields were selected in the three North American countries to reflect the impact of different spatial locations and technologies on water demand. These include the Alaska North Slope, California's Kern County heavy oil, and Mars in the U.S.; Maya in Mexico; and Bow River heavy oil in Alberta, Canada. A boundary for an assessment of the life cycle water footprint was set to cover the unit operations related to exploration, drilling, extraction, and refining. The recovery technology used to extract crude oil is one of the key determining factors for water demand. The amount of produced water that is re-injected to recover the oil is essential in determining the amount of fresh water that will be required. During the complete life cycle of one barrel of conventional crude oil, 1.71-8.25 barrels of fresh water are consumed and 2.4-9.51 barrels of fresh water are withdrawn. The lowest coefficients are for Bow River heavy oil and the highest coefficients are for Maya crude oil. Of all the unit operations, exploration and drilling require the least fresh water (less than 0.015 barrel of water per barrel of oil produced). A sensitivity analysis was conducted and uncertainty in the estimates was determined. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The increasing importance of atmospheric demand for ecosystem water and carbon fluxes

Science.gov (United States)

Kimberly A. Novick; Darren L. Ficklin; Paul C. Stoy; Christopher A. Williams; Gil Bohrer; Andrew C. Oishi; Shirley A. Papuga; Peter D. Blanken; Asko Noormets; Benjamin N. Sulman; Russell L. Scott; Lixin Wang; Richard P. Phillips

2016-01-01

Soil moisture supply and atmospheric demand for water independently limit-and profoundly affect-vegetation productivity and water use during periods of hydrologic stress1-4. Disentangling the impact of these two drivers on ecosystem carbon and water cycling is difficult because they are often correlated, and experimental tools for manipulating...

Evaluation of water demand and supply in the south of Iraq

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Al-Furaiji, Mustafa; Karim, Usama F.A.; Augustijn, Dionysius C.M.; Waisi, Basma; Hulscher, Suzanne J.M.H.

2016-01-01

This paper presents results from the first study that focuses on water resources availability and demand for different purposes in the four oil-rich provinces of southern Iraq. The region accounts for 23% of the surface area and 18% of the country's population, but holds 88% of its oil. A water

Projecting labor demand and worker immigration at nuclear power plant construction sites: an evaluation of methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Herzog, H.W. Jr; Schlottmann, A.M.; Schriver, W.R.

1981-12-01

The study evaluates methodology employed for the projection of labor demand at, and worker migration to, nuclear power plant construction sites. In addition, suggestions are offered as to how this projection methodology might be improved. The study focuses on projection methodologies which forecast either construction worker migration or labor requirements of alternative types of construction activity. Suggested methodological improvements relate both to institutional factors within the nuclear power plant construction industry, and to a better use of craft-specific data on construction worker demand/supply. In addition, the timeliness and availability of the regional occupational data required to support, or implement these suggestions are examined

Expanded ethanol production: Implications for agriculture, water demand, and water quality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De La Torre Ugarte, Daniel G.; He, Lixia; Jensen, Kimberly L.; English, Burton C.

2010-01-01

Feedstock production for large scale development of the U.S. ethanol industry and introduction of cellulose-to-ethanol technology will require extensive changes in land use and field management. Hence, this production will likely have significant impact on water demand and quality. This study compares two 'what if' scenarios for attaining a 227.1 hm 3 of ethanol by 2030 and 3.8 hm 3 of biodiesel by 2012. In the first scenario cellulose-to-ethanol technology is introduced in 2012, while in the second scenario the technology is delayed until 2015. Results show that the timing of introduction of cellulose-to-ethanol technology will affect the water use and water quality related input use in primarily in the eastern part of the nation. Results also suggest policy emphasis on reduced and no-till practices needs to be complementary to increased crop residue use. (author)

Correlates of potable water demand among farming households in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This study estimated the correlates of potable water demand among farming households through the use of cross-sectional data collected from 100 households in Abak, Nigeria. Based on the fact that heterogeneity and homogeneity exist within and among the clans and also to ensure equal representation of people from all ...

Climate variability and demand growth as drivers of water scarcity in the Turkwel river basin: a bottom-up risk assessment of a data-sparse basin in Kenya

Science.gov (United States)

Hirpa, F. A.; Dyer, E.; Hope, R.; Dadson, S. J.

2017-12-01

Sustainable water management and allocation are essential for maintaining human well-being, sustaining healthy ecosystems, and supporting steady economic growth. The Turkwel river basin, located in north-western Kenya, experiences a high level of water scarcity due to its arid climate, high rainfall variability, and rapidly growing water demand. However, due to sparse hydro-climatic data and limited literature, the water resources system of the basin has been poorly understood. Here we apply a bottom-up climate risk assessment method to estimate the resilience of the basin's water resources system to growing demand and climate stressors. First, using a water resource system model and historical climate data, we construct a climate risk map that depicts the way in which the system responds to climate change and variability. Then we develop a set of water demand scenarios to identify the conditions that potentially lead to the risk of unmet water demand and groundwater depletion. Finally, we investigate the impact of climate change and variability by stress testing these development scenarios against historically strong El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years and future climate projections from multiple Global Circulation Models (GCMs). The results reveal that climate variability and increased water demand are the main drivers of water scarcity in the basin. Our findings show that increases in water demand due to expanded irrigation and population growth exert the strongest influence on the ability of the system to meet water resource supply requirements, and in all cases considered increase the impacts of droughts caused by future climate variability. Our analysis illustrates the importance of combining analysis of future climate risks with other development decisions that affect water resources planning. Policy and investment decisions which maximise water use efficiency in the present day are likely to impart resilience to climate change and variability under a

Effect of land area on average annual suburban water demand ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

AADD) in South Africa are based on residential plot size. This paper presents a novel, robust method for estimating suburban water demand as a function of the suburb area. Seventy suburbs, identified as being predominantly residential, were ...

Optimal and Learning-Based Demand Response Mechanism for Electric Water Heater System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bo Lin

2017-10-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates how to develop a learning-based demand response approach for electric water heater in a smart home that can minimize the energy cost of the water heater while meeting the comfort requirements of energy consumers. First, a learning-based, data-driven model of an electric water heater is developed by using a nonlinear autoregressive network with external input (NARX using neural network. The model is updated daily so that it can more accurately capture the actual thermal dynamic characteristics of the water heater especially in real-life conditions. Then, an optimization problem, based on the NARX water heater model, is formulated to optimize energy management of the water heater in a day-ahead, dynamic electricity price framework. A genetic algorithm is proposed in order to solve the optimization problem more efficiently. MATLAB (R2016a is used to evaluate the proposed learning-based demand response approach through a computational experiment strategy. The proposed approach is compared with conventional method for operation of an electric water heater. Cost saving and benefits of the proposed water heater energy management strategy are explored.

Development of life cycle water-demand coefficients for coal-based power generation technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ali, Babkir; Kumar, Amit

2015-01-01

Highlights: • We develop water consumption and withdrawals coefficients for coal power generation. • We develop life cycle water footprints for 36 coal-based electricity generation pathways. • Different coal power generation technologies were assessed. • Sensitivity analysis of plant performance and coal transportation on water demand. - Abstract: This paper aims to develop benchmark coefficients for water consumption and water withdrawals over the full life cycle of coal-based power generation. This study considered not only all of the unit operations involved in the full electricity generation life cycle but also compared different coal-based power generating technologies. Overall this study develops the life cycle water footprint for 36 different coal-based electricity generation pathways. Power generation pathways involving new technologies of integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) or ultra supercritical technology with coal transportation by conventional means and using dry cooling systems have the least complete life cycle water-demand coefficients of about 1 L/kW h. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to study the impact of power plant performance and coal transportation on the water demand coefficients. The consumption coefficient over life cycle of ultra supercritical or IGCC power plants are 0.12 L/kW h higher when conventional transportation of coal is replaced by coal-log pipeline. Similarly, if the conventional transportation of coal is replaced by its transportation in the form of a slurry through a pipeline, the consumption coefficient of a subcritical power plant increases by 0.52 L/kW h

Influences of water quality and climate on the water-energy nexus: A spatial comparison of two water systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Stang, Shannon; Wang, Haiying; Gardner, Kevin H; Mo, Weiwei

2018-07-15

As drinking water supply systems plan for sustainable management practices, impacts from future water quality and climate changes are a major concern. This study aims to understand the intraannual changes of energy consumption for water treatment, investigate the relative importance of water quality and climate indicators on energy consumption for water treatment, and predict the effects of climate change on the embodied energy of treated, potable water at two municipal drinking water systems located in the northeast and southeast US. To achieve this goal, a life cycle assessment was first performed to quantify the monthly energy consumption in the two drinking water systems. Regression and relative importance analyses were then performed between climate indicators, raw water quality indicators, and chemical and energy usages in the treatment processes to determine their correlations. These relationships were then used to project changes in embodied energy associated with the plants' processes, and the results were compared between the two regions. The projections of the southeastern US water plant were for an increase in energy demand resulted from an increase of treatment chemical usages. The northeastern US plant was projected to decrease its energy demand due to a reduced demand for heating the plant's infrastructure. The findings indicate that geographic location and treatment process may determine the way climate change affects drinking water systems. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Better Water Demand and Pipe Description Improve the Distribution Network Modeling Results

Science.gov (United States)

Distribution system modeling simplifies pipe network in skeletonization and simulates the flow and water quality by using generalized water demand patterns. While widely used, the approach has not been examined fully on how it impacts the modeling fidelity. This study intends to ...

Water use and supply concerns for utility-scale solar projects in the Southwestern United States.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Klise, Geoffrey Taylor; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Reno, Marissa Devan; Moreland, Barbara Denise.; Zemlick, Katie M.; Macknick, Jordan

2013-07-01

As large utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) and concentrating solar power (CSP) facilities are currently being built and planned for locations in the U.S. with the greatest solar resource potential, an understanding of water use for construction and operations is needed as siting tends to target locations with low natural rainfall and where most existing freshwater is already appropriated. Using methods outlined by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to determine water used in designated solar energy zones (SEZs) for construction and operations & maintenance, an estimate of water used over the lifetime at the solar power plant is determined and applied to each watershed in six Southwestern states. Results indicate that that PV systems overall use little water, though construction usage is high compared to O&M water use over the lifetime of the facility. Also noted is a transition being made from wet cooled to dry cooled CSP facilities that will significantly reduce operational water use at these facilities. Using these water use factors, estimates of future water demand for current and planned solar development was made. In efforts to determine where water could be a limiting factor in solar energy development, water availability, cost, and projected future competing demands were mapped for the six Southwestern states. Ten watersheds, 9 in California, and one in New Mexico were identified as being of particular concern because of limited water availability.

Greywater reuse: A strategy for water demand management in Harare?

Science.gov (United States)

Madungwe, Emaculate; Sakuringwa, Saniso

Greywater is wastewater from baths, sinks and washing machines, accounting for about 60% of the outflow from homes. It contains little pathogens and 90% less nitrogen than toilet water, so does not require the same treatment process. With the increasing demand for freshwater, its use may reduce irrigation water needs, increasing its availability of freshwater for other primary uses. Agriculture is the main water consumer in Africa, which cannot be compromised due to its role in domestic food security and export supplies. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate findings of the research done on benefits of greywater reuse in some countries, applicable to African countries. In Australia, greywater reuse has reduced freshwater demand, strain on wastewater treatment plants and energy consumption. Aquifer recharge has improved due to increased infiltration flows from greywater uses. In Lebanon, greywater is a valuable resource for encouraging plant growth from nutrients that may otherwise have been wasted. Palestine shares similar climate and water scarcity conditions with most arid sub-Saharan African countries, yet utilizes grey water in production of crops and citrus fruits. Thus use of grey water should be possible in African cities such as Harare, where nearly two thirds of the population rely on agriculture for livelihoods. The problem of blue green algae in sewerage ponds and water reservoirs is significantly reduced by household reuse of grey water in Mexico. Water savings are increased and expenses reduced, as illustrated by the reduction in consumption of municipality freshwater supplies in South African urban areas. Rural communities and schools in Namibia and Egypt have raised funds from grey water reuse in banana plantations. A possible constraint to this strategy could be the unavailability of appropriate technology for primary treatment of grey water before reuse. This strategy may pose health risks where water quality tests are unknown or unavailable

Mapping water availability, projected use and cost in the western United States

Science.gov (United States)

Tidwell, Vincent C.; Moreland, Barbara D.; Zemlick, Katie M.; Roberts, Barry L.; Passell, Howard D.; Jensen, Daniel; Forsgren, Christopher; Sehlke, Gerald; Cook, Margaret A.; King, Carey W.; Larsen, Sara

2014-05-01

New demands for water can be satisfied through a variety of source options. In some basins surface and/or groundwater may be available through permitting with the state water management agency (termed unappropriated water), alternatively water might be purchased and transferred out of its current use to another (termed appropriated water), or non-traditional water sources can be captured and treated (e.g., wastewater). The relative availability and cost of each source are key factors in the development decision. Unfortunately, these measures are location dependent with no consistent or comparable set of data available for evaluating competing water sources. With the help of western water managers, water availability was mapped for over 1200 watersheds throughout the western US. Five water sources were individually examined, including unappropriated surface water, unappropriated groundwater, appropriated water, municipal wastewater and brackish groundwater. Also mapped was projected change in consumptive water use from 2010 to 2030. Associated costs to acquire, convey and treat the water, as necessary, for each of the five sources were estimated. These metrics were developed to support regional water planning and policy analysis with initial application to electric transmission planning in the western US.

Managing Water Demand : Policies, Practices and Lessons from the ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

30 août 2005 ... Managing Water Demand : Policies, Practices and Lessons from the Middle East and North Africa Forums. Couverture du livre ... L'organisation HarassMap, soutenue par le CRDI, a une fois de plus incité à apporter des changements progressifs dans le domaine de la lutte contre le harcèlement sexuel.

Toward a methodology for substate projections of registered nurse supply and demand in New York.

Science.gov (United States)

McGinnis, Sandra; Martiniano, Robert; Moore, Jean

2010-01-01

Even as concerns about nursing shortages continue nationwide and for individual states in the United States, there is little information on the impact of nursing shortages at substate levels, such as counties or groups of small counties. National and state level assessments can mask wide geographic variation in the distribution of registered nurses (RNs). The Center for Health Workforce Studies at the School of Public Health, University at Albany, developed a practical approach to projecting RN supply and demand at substate levels. The experimental model used in this research was adapted from a methodology utilized for the RN National Supply Model and National Demand Model developed by the Health Resources and Services Administration in the department of Health and Human Services to make RN supply and demand projections at the broader national and state levels. The Center's research highlighted the value of substate analyses in the identification of RN supply and demand gaps and found that supply and demand gaps vary greatly by region and within regions. This study also provided an in-depth understanding of the dynamics that drive substate labor markets for RNs as well as the need for substate analyses to help policymakers better allocate scarce resources to address nursing shortages.

Projections of demand of natural gas in Mexico; Proyecciones de demanda de gas natural en Mexico

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Quintanilla Martinez, Juan [Programa Universitario de Energia, UNAM (Mexico)

1996-07-01

The projections of demand of energy for Mexico, in the global and regional scope, for period 1992-2020 are presented. The projections are based on the use of a simulation model built in the University Program of Energy of the Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (UNAM), which allows to project the demand in the short and medium term of the primary and final energy. Projections of the demands of energy or for fuels by sectors and subsectors are obtained in accordance with different scenarios of growth. Particularly the demand of natural gas is analyzed, both, as energy and as raw material for the petrochemical industry, and as fuel oil, under different scenarios of economic growth and policies of environmental character. [Spanish] Se presentan las proyecciones de demanda de energia para Mexico, en el ambito global y regional, para el periodo 1992-2020. Las proyecciones estan basadas en el uso de un modelo de simulacion construido en el Programa Universitario de Energia de la Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (UNAM), el cual permite proyectar la demanda de energia primaria y final en el corto y mediano plazos. Se obtienen proyecciones de las demandas de energia por sectores y subsectores o por combustibles de acuerdo con diferentes escenarios de crecimiento. En particular se analiza la demanda de gas natural, tanto como energetico como materia prima para la petroquimica, y combustoleo bajo diferentes escenarios de crecimiento economico y politicas de caracter ambiental.

Voluntary Management of Residential Water Demand in Low and Middle-Low Income Households: Case Study of Soacha (colombia)

Science.gov (United States)

Acosta, R.; Rodriguez, J. P.

2016-12-01

Water resources availability is a global concern due to increasing demands, decreasing quality and uncertain spatio-temporal variability (United Nations, 2009). In urban contexts research on efficient water use is a priority to cope with the future vulnerability of water supplies as a result of the impacts of climate change (Bates et al, 2008). Following the proposed methodologies of He and Kua (2013) for implementing programs to promote sustainable energy consumption, we focused on the use of educational strategies to promote a voluntary rationalization of residential water demand. We collaborated with three schools in Soacha (Colombia) where students ranging from 12 to 15 years participated in the project as promoters of educational campaigns inside their families, covering 120 low and middle-low income households. Three intervention or treatment strategies (i.e. e-learning, in-person active learning activities and graphical learning tools) were carried out over a period of 5 months. We analyzed the effects of the treatments strategies in reducing water consumption rates and the dependence of this variable on socio-demographic, economic, environmental, and life quality factors by using personal interviews and self reported water saving technics. The results showed that educational campaigns have a positive effect on reducing consumption in the households. Graphical learning tools accounted for the highest reduction in water consumption. Moreover, the results of the study suggests that socio-economic factors such as type of house, social level, income, and life quality variables significantly affect the variability in water consumption, which is an important fact to consider in similar cases where communities face difficult socio-economic conditions, displacement or high rates of urban growth.

Look Who's Talking. Explaining Water-Related Information Sharing and Demand for Action Among Ugandan Villagers

Science.gov (United States)

Holvoet, Nathalie; Dewachter, Sara; Molenaers, Nadia

2016-11-01

Many national water policies propagate community-based participatory approaches to overcome weaknesses in supply-driven rural water provision, operation, and maintenance. Citizen involvement is thought to stimulate bottom-up accountability and broaden the information base, which may enrich design and implementation processes and foster improved water accessibility and sustainability. Practices on the ground, however, are embedded in socio-political realities which mediate possible beneficial effects of participatory approaches. This paper builds on full social network data collected in a Ugandan village to study the social and political reality of two distinct levels of participation, i.e. local information sharing among citizens and a more active appeal to fellow citizens to improve water services. We use Logistic Regression Quadratic Assignment Procedure to explore what type of actor and network traits influence information sharing and whether the same factors are in play in the demand for action to remedy water-related problems. Whereas social aspects (social support relations) and homophily (using the same water source, the same gender) play an important role in information sharing, it is the educational level, in particular, of the villager who is called upon that is important when villagers demand action. Our findings also demonstrate that those most in need of safe water do not mobilize their information sharing ties to demand for action. This indicates that building local water policies and practice exclusively on locally existing demand for action may fail to capture the needs of the most deprived citizens.

Assessing Vulnerability under Uncertainty in the Colorado River Basin: The Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study

Science.gov (United States)

Jerla, C.; Adams, P.; Butler, A.; Nowak, K.; Prairie, J. R.

2013-12-01

Spanning parts of the seven states, of Arizona, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah, and Wyoming, the Colorado River is one of the most critical sources of water in the western United States. Colorado River allocations exceed the long-term supply and since the 1950s, there have been a number of years when the annual water use in the Colorado River Basin exceeded the yield. The Basin is entering its second decade of drought conditions which brings challenges that will only be compounded if projections of climate change are realized. It was against this backdrop that the Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study was conducted. The Study's objectives are to define current and future imbalances in the Basin over the next 50 years and to develop and analyze adaptation and mitigation strategies to resolve those imbalances. Long-term planning in the Basin involves the integration of uncertainty with respect to a changing climate and other uncertainties such as future demand and how policies may be modified to adapt to changing reliability. The Study adopted a scenario planning approach to address this uncertainty in which thousands of scenarios were developed to encompass a wide range of plausible future water supply and demand conditions. Using Reclamation's long-term planning model, the Colorado River Simulation System, the reliability of the system to meet Basin resource needs under these future conditions was projected both with and without additional future adaptation strategies in place. System reliability metrics were developed in order to define system vulnerabilities, the conditions that lead to those vulnerabilities, and sign posts to indicate if the system is approaching a vulnerable state. Options and strategies that reduce these vulnerabilities and improve system reliability were explored through the development of portfolios. Four portfolios, each with different management strategies, were analyzed to assess their effectiveness at

Projection of regional demand for labour force under the terms of industry modernization

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Igor Aleksandrovich Bayev

2011-06-01

Full Text Available The article represents the results of research devoted to the problem of demand for labour force projection. The two main priorities of Russian economic development — modernization and innovation — are declared as the factors influencing labour market in a rather intrinsic and specific way. The research of dependence between GDP growth rate per occupied in the most developed countries is conducted and shows the positive influence the innovation process imposes on the demand for labour force. The particular problem is proved to be semi-structured. The selforganisation approach to this problem is proposed and helps to detect that the main shaping process of labour market dynamics is industry modernization. The trend of modernization influence on demand for labour force is revealed and taken under consideration while developing the mathematical model, enabling to predict the demand for labour force with not more than 2% mean absolute percentage error.

Greenhouse gas and energy co-benefits of water conservation[Water Sustainability Project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Maas, C.

2009-03-15

Energy is needed to deliver water to, within and from communities to remove contaminants from water and wastewater, and to heat water in homes. The interconnections between water and energy are referred to as the water-energy nexus. Large volumes of water are needed to generate energy, notably to power turbines, to cool thermal or nuclear energy plants, and to extract oil from tar sands. At the same time, large amounts of energy are needed to pump, treat, heat and distribute water for urban, industrial and agricultural use and to collect and treat the resulting wastewater. The two sides of the water-energy nexus are generating new research and policy proposals to address the challenges of climate change, energy security and increasing water scarcity. This report demonstrated that a large untapped opportunity exists for water conservation to reduce energy, municipal costs and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The water-energy research in this study was based on a Soft Path for Water approach that incorporated facets of water demand management while moving beyond a short-term focus on cost-benefit criteria to examine how the services currently provided by water can be delivered to meet the need for economic, social and ecological sustainability. Although the research was conducted using data for municipalities in Ontario, the report is relevant to the rest of Canada and much of North America. Water conservation strategies included water efficiency measures such as high efficiency toilets and washing machines, as well as water saving measures such as xeriscaping and rainwater harvesting. The objectives of the study were to quantify the energy use associated with each component of the urban water use cycle and to determine the potential for energy and GHG emissions reductions associated with water conservation strategies. This report provided an overview of energy inputs needed for water provision. It outlined the methodology used to achieve the project objectives and

New Zealand's neurologist workforce: a pragmatic analysis of demand, supply and future projections.

Science.gov (United States)

Ranta, Annemarei Anna; Tiwari, Priyesh; Mottershead, John; Abernethy, David; Simpson, Mark; Brickell, Kiri; Lynch, Christopher; Walker, Elizabeth; Frith, Richard

2015-08-07

To estimate current and future specialist neurologist demand and supply to assist with health sector planning. Current demand for the neurology workforce in New Zealand was assessed using neuroepidemiological data. To assess current supply, all New Zealand neurology departments were surveyed to determine current workforce and estimate average neurologist productivity. Projections were made based on current neurologists anticipated retirement rates and addition of new neurologists based on current training positions. We explored several models to address the supply-demand gap. The current supply of neurologists in New Zealand is 36 full-time equivalents (FTE), insufficient to meet current demand of 74 FTE. Demand will grow over time and if status quo is maintained the gap will widen. Pressures on healthcare dollars are ever increasing and we cannot expect to address the identified service gap by immediately doubling the number of neurologists. Instead we propose a 12-year strategic approach with investments to enhance service productivity, strengthen collaborative efforts between specialists and general service providers, moderately increase the number of neurologists and neurology training positions, and develop highly skilled non-specialists including trained.

Water demand management: A policy response to climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rivers, R.; Tate, D.

1990-01-01

The impacts of climate change on the water resources of the Great Lakes region are discussed. It is predicted that there will be a relative water scarcity in the Great Lakes basin of Ontario as climate changes occur over the next two decades. Declines in water supply will be accompanied by deterioration in the quality of fresh water as higher temperatures and higher relative quantities of discharged wastewater to water bodies reduce both assimilative and dilutive capacity. The most cost effective policy is to encourage water conservation through programs of water demand management. Water should be priced at the point at which its marginal cost is equal to its marginal product, ie. if priced any higher, less efficient substitutes would be used. Not only would water usage, and subsequent degradation of used water, be reduced, but energy and other cost savings would be achieved. The additional costs that apply to water users could be returned to the communities as additional revenue to be applied against sewage treatment upgrades and other environmental enhancements. Communities involved in water study should consider the development of water use analysis models to assist with decision making about allocation, pricing and availability of water supplies. 10 refs

Water availability and demand in the development regions of South Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. B. de Villiers

1988-03-01

Full Text Available The availability of water data in the development regions is at present insufficient. This is due to the fact that water supply and demand is calculated for the physical drainage regions (watersheds, while the development regions do not correspond with the drainage regions. The necessary calculations can accordingly presently not be made. In this paper this problem is addressed.

Ground water security and drought in Africa: linking availability, access, and demand.

Science.gov (United States)

Calow, Roger C; Macdonald, Alan M; Nicol, Alan L; Robins, Nick S

2010-01-01

Drought in Africa has been extensively researched, particularly from meteorological, agricultural, and food security perspectives. However, the impact of drought on water security, particularly ground water dependent rural water supplies, has received much less attention. Policy responses have concentrated on food needs, and it has often been difficult to mobilize resources for water interventions, despite evidence that access to safe water is a serious and interrelated concern. Studies carried out in Ghana, Malawi, South Africa, and Ethiopia highlight how rural livelihoods are affected by seasonal stress and longer-term drought. Declining access to food and water is a common and interrelated problem. Although ground water plays a vital role in buffering the effects of rainfall variability, water shortages and difficulties in accessing water that is available can affect domestic and productive water uses, with knock-on effects on food consumption and production. Total depletion of available ground water resources is rarely the main concern. A more common scenario is a spiral of water insecurity as shallow water sources fail, additional demands are put on remaining sources, and mechanical failures increase. These problems can be planned for within normal development programs. Water security mapping can help identify vulnerable areas, and changes to monitoring systems can ensure early detection of problems. Above all, increasing the coverage of ground water-based rural water supplies, and ensuring that the design and siting of water points is informed by an understanding of hydrogeological conditions and user demand, can significantly increase the resilience of rural communities to climate variability.

Development of Extended Period Pressure-Dependent Demand Water Distribution Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Judi, David R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Mcpherson, Timothy N. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2015-03-20

Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) has used modeling and simulation of water distribution systems for N-1 contingency analyses to assess criticality of water system assets. Critical components considered in these analyses include pumps, tanks, and supply sources, in addition to critical pipes or aqueducts. A contingency represents the complete removal of the asset from system operation. For each contingency, an extended period simulation (EPS) is run using EPANET. An EPS simulates water system behavior over a time period, typically at least 24 hours. It assesses the ability of a system to respond and recover from asset disruption through distributed storage in tanks throughout the system. Contingencies of concern are identified as those in which some portion of the water system has unmet delivery requirements. A delivery requirement is defined as an aggregation of water demands within a service area, similar to an electric power demand. The metric used to identify areas of unmet delivery requirement in these studies is a pressure threshold of 15 pounds per square inch (psi). This pressure threshold is used because it is below the required pressure for fire protection. Any location in the model with pressure that drops below this threshold at any time during an EPS is considered to have unmet service requirements and is used to determine cascading consequences. The outage area for a contingency is the aggregation of all service areas with a pressure below the threshold at any time during the EPS.

77 FR 36001 - Draft Report Assessing Rural Water Activities and Related Programs

Science.gov (United States)

2012-06-15

... of the authorized rural water projects identified above; (3) The demand for new rural water supply projects; (4) The rural water programs within other agencies; (5) The extent of the demand that can be met... DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR Bureau of Reclamation Draft Report Assessing Rural Water Activities and...

Water demand and offer in River Tibagi (BHRT- Londrina, Paraná, Brazil : basic sanitary or energy production

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Irene Domenes Zapparoli

2013-12-01

Full Text Available This article aims to verify the demands for the use and reuse of water in the municipality of Londrina and energy production in the Tibagi River, Paraná, Brazil. The material and method are composed of bibliographic review, having as a conceptual and the principles governing the environmental public policy. As primary source analyzes the documents "term of reference for preparation of the submission of the plan of the Tibagi River ", project municipality of Londrina "farmer water guard" and the "program of conservation, rational use and reuse of water in the city of Londrina" and the delimitation of the study marched on the Tibagi River and the municipality of Londrina in the state of Paraná, Brazil. The results show that for preservation of the basin, the state and some municipalities have certain laws and water resources management projects, but not sufficient. For that to occur a conservation more efficient, effective in practice is required for some laws to ensure the water, multi-use and awareness of the population that also has the duty to protect and conserve this resource so essential to the human being. Unable to verify that the adoption of instruments on economic, social and marketing. The study leads to the conclusion that the interests comes if splitting between energy production and sanitation. This study has not exhausted the subject search continuity and suggests how other instruments of financial compensation for attendance to this environmental services market that uses water as a raw material.

Just add water: reproducible singly dispersed silver nanoparticle suspensions on-demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MacCuspie, Robert I.; Allen, Andrew J.; Martin, Matthew N.; Hackley, Vincent A.

2013-01-01

Silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) are of interest due to their antimicrobial attributes, which are derived from their inherent redox instability and subsequent release of silver ions. At the same time, this instability is a substantial challenge for achieving stable long-term storage for on-demand use of AgNPs. In this study, we describe and validate a “just add water” approach for achieving suspensions of principally singly dispersed AgNPs. By lyophilizing (freeze drying) the formulated AgNPs into a solid powder, or cake, water is removed thereby eliminating solution-based chemical changes. Storing under inert gas further reduces surface reactions such as oxidation. An example of how to optimize a lyophilization formulation is presented, as well as example formulations for three AgNP core sizes. This “just add water” approach enables ease of use for the researcher desiring on-demand singly dispersed AgNP suspensions from a single master batch. Implementation of this methodology will enable studies to be performed over long periods of time and across different laboratories using particles that are identical chemically and physically and available on-demand. In addition, the approach of freeze drying and on-demand reconstitution by adding water has enabled the development of AgNP reference materials with the required shelf-life stability, one of the principal objectives of this research

Projection of energy demand for the period 2004-2035 in Argentina using the model 'MAED'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jensen Mariani, Santiago N.; Cañadas, Valeria

2009-01-01

The tool used in CNEA to study projection of energy demand in Argentina, is the Model for Energy Demand Analysis 'MAED', supplied by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), launched by the project 'Strengthening capacity to develop sustainable energy systems' RLA/0/029, organized by that agency and OLADE. This is resumed by the Prospective and Energy Planning Division, as a comprehensive analysis of the energy chain in the country, conducted over many years in the CNEA and that was reduced at just supply analysis in recent years. For the modeling of the national energy demand, there were found a series of assumptions about population growth, changes in the economy and other variables, in order to determine the final energy demand for the study period 2004 -2035; in a total of three scenarios will be detailed in the relevant sections. As shown, the results reveal the high dependence on fossil fuels, even in a scenario with efficient energy use, and as in this context, an increasing involvement of nuclear energy in the energy matrix could offset this dependence by diversifying and strengthening the supply of electricity. (author)

Evaluating Water Demand Using Agent-Based Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Lowry, T. S.

2004-12-01

The supply and demand of water resources are functions of complex, inter-related systems including hydrology, climate, demographics, economics, and policy. To assess the safety and sustainability of water resources, planners often rely on complex numerical models that relate some or all of these systems using mathematical abstractions. The accuracy of these models relies on how well the abstractions capture the true nature of the systems interactions. Typically, these abstractions are based on analyses of observations and/or experiments that account only for the statistical mean behavior of each system. This limits the approach in two important ways: 1) It cannot capture cross-system disruptive events, such as major drought, significant policy change, or terrorist attack, and 2) it cannot resolve sub-system level responses. To overcome these limitations, we are developing an agent-based water resources model that includes the systems of hydrology, climate, demographics, economics, and policy, to examine water demand during normal and extraordinary conditions. Agent-based modeling (ABM) develops functional relationships between systems by modeling the interaction between individuals (agents), who behave according to a probabilistic set of rules. ABM is a "bottom-up" modeling approach in that it defines macro-system behavior by modeling the micro-behavior of individual agents. While each agent's behavior is often simple and predictable, the aggregate behavior of all agents in each system can be complex, unpredictable, and different than behaviors observed in mean-behavior models. Furthermore, the ABM approach creates a virtual laboratory where the effects of policy changes and/or extraordinary events can be simulated. Our model, which is based on the demographics and hydrology of the Middle Rio Grande Basin in the state of New Mexico, includes agent groups of residential, agricultural, and industrial users. Each agent within each group determines its water usage

High Resolution Map of Water Supply and Demand for North East United States

Science.gov (United States)

Ehsani, N.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Fekete, B. M.

2012-12-01

Accurate estimates of water supply and demand are crucial elements in water resources management and modeling. As part of our NSF-funded EaSM effort to build a Northeast Regional Earth System Model (NE-RESM) as a framework to improve our understanding and capacity to forecast the implications of planning decisions on the region's environment, ecosystem services, energy and economic systems through the 21st century, we are producing a high resolution map (3' x 3' lat/long) of estimated water supply and use for the north east region of United States. Focusing on water demand, results from this study enables us to quantify how demand sources affect the hydrology and thermal-chemical water pollution across the region. In an attempt to generate this 3-minute resolution map in which each grid cell has a specific estimated monthly domestic, agriculture, thermoelectric and industrial water use. Estimated Use of Water in the United States in 2005 (Kenny et al., 2009) is being coupled to high resolution land cover and land use, irrigation, power plant and population data sets. In addition to water demands, we tried to improve estimates of water supply from the WBM model by improving the way it controls discharge from reservoirs. Reservoirs are key characteristics of the modern hydrologic system, with a particular impact on altering the natural stream flow, thermal characteristics, and biogeochemical fluxes of rivers. Depending on dam characteristics, watershed characteristics and the purpose of building a dam, each reservoir has a specific optimum operating rule. It means that literally 84,000 dams in the National Inventory of Dams potentially follow 84,000 different sets of rules for storing and releasing water which must somehow be accounted for in our modeling exercise. In reality, there is no comprehensive observational dataset depicting these operating rules. Thus, we will simulate these rules. Our perspective is not to find the optimum operating rule per se but to find

Modeling of Residential Water Demand Using Random Effect Model,Case Study: Arak City

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seyed Hossein Sajadifar

2011-10-01

Full Text Available The present study tries to apply the “Partial Adjustment Model” and “Random Effect Model” techniques to the Stone-Greay’s linear expenditure system, in order to estimate the "Residential Seasonal Demand" for water in Arak city. Per capita water consumption of family residences is regressed on marginal price, per capita income, price of other goods, average temperature and average rainfall. Panel data approaches based on a sample of 152 observations from Arak city referred to 1993-2003. From the estimation of the Elasticity-price of the residential water demand, we want to know how a policy of responsive pricing can lead to more efficient household water consumption inArakcity. Results also indicated that summer price elasticity was twice the winter and price and income elasticity was less than 1 in all cases.

EnviroAtlas - Agricultural Water Demand by 12-Digit HUC for the Conterminous United States

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The national agricultural water demand metric provides insight into the amount of water currently used for agricultural irrigation in the contiguous United States....

Uncertainty analysis of daily potable water demand on the performance evaluation of rainwater harvesting systems in residential buildings.

Science.gov (United States)

Silva, Arthur Santos; Ghisi, Enedir

2016-09-15

The objective of this paper is to perform a sensitivity analysis of design variables and an uncertainty analysis of daily potable water demand to evaluate the performance of rainwater harvesting systems in residential buildings. Eight cities in Brazil with different rainfall patterns were analysed. A numeric experiment was performed by means of computer simulation of rainwater harvesting. A sensitivity analysis was performed using variance-based indices for identifying the most important design parameters for rainwater harvesting systems when assessing the potential for potable water savings and underground tank capacity sizing. The uncertainty analysis was performed for different scenarios of potable water demand with stochastic variations in a normal distribution with different coefficients of variation throughout the simulated period. The results have shown that different design variables, such as potable water demand, number of occupants, rainwater demand, and roof area are important for obtaining the ideal underground tank capacity and estimating the potential for potable water savings. The stochastic variations on the potable water demand caused amplitudes of up to 4.8% on the potential for potable water savings and 9.4% on the ideal underground tank capacity. Average amplitudes were quite low for all cities. However, some combinations of parameters resulted in large amplitude of uncertainty and difference from uniform distribution for tank capacities and potential for potable water savings. Stochastic potable water demand generated low uncertainties in the performance evaluation of rainwater harvesting systems; therefore, uniform distribution could be used in computer simulation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation of crop water requirements using remote sensing for operational water resources management

Science.gov (United States)

Vasiliades, Lampros; Spiliotopoulos, Marios; Tzabiras, John; Loukas, Athanasios; Mylopoulos, Nikitas

2015-06-01

An integrated modeling system, developed in the framework of "Hydromentor" research project, is applied to evaluate crop water requirements for operational water resources management at Lake Karla watershed, Greece. The framework includes coupled components for operation of hydrotechnical projects (reservoir operation and irrigation works) and estimation of agricultural water demands at several spatial scales using remote sensing. The study area was sub-divided into irrigation zones based on land use maps derived from Landsat 5 TM images for the year 2007. Satellite-based energy balance for mapping evapotranspiration with internalized calibration (METRIC) was used to derive actual evapotranspiration (ET) and crop coefficient (ETrF) values from Landsat TM imagery. Agricultural water needs were estimated using the FAO method for each zone and each control node of the system for a number of water resources management strategies. Two operational strategies of hydro-technical project development (present situation without operation of the reservoir and future situation with the operation of the reservoir) are coupled with three water demand strategies. In total, eight (8) water management strategies are evaluated and compared. The results show that, under the existing operational water resources management strategies, the crop water requirements are quite large. However, the operation of the proposed hydro-technical projects in Lake Karla watershed coupled with water demand management measures, like improvement of existing water distribution systems, change of irrigation methods, and changes of crop cultivation could alleviate the problem and lead to sustainable and ecological use of water resources in the study area.

Baseline Projection Data Book: GRI baseline projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand to 2010. 1992 Edition. Volume 1 and Volume 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holtberg, P.D.; Woods, T.J.; Lihn, M.L.; Koklauner, A.K.

1992-01-01

The 1992 Baseline Projection Data Book provides backup data in tabular form for the 1992 GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand to 2010. Summary tables and data for the residential, commercial, industrial, electric utility, and transportation sectors are presented in the volume

Electric energy demand and supply prospects for California

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, H. G. M.

1978-01-01

A recent history of electricity forecasting in California is given. Dealing with forecasts and regulatory uncertainty is discussed. Graphs are presented for: (1) Los Angeles Department of Water and Power and Pacific Gas and Electric present and projected reserve margins; (2) California electricity peak demand forecast; and (3) California electricity production.

EnviroAtlas - Domestic Water Demand by 12-Digit HUC for the Conterminous United States

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This EnviroAtlas dataset includes domestic water demand attributes which provide insight into the amount of water currently used for indoor and outdoor residential...

EnviroAtlas - Fresno, CA - Domestic Water Demand per Day by U.S. Census Block Group

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — As included in this EnviroAtlas dataset, community level domestic water demand is calculated using locally available water use data per capita in gallons of water...

EnviroAtlas - Phoenix, AZ - Domestic Water Demand per Day by U.S. Census Block Group

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — As included in this EnviroAtlas dataset, community level domestic water demand is calculated using locally available water use data per capita in gallons of water...

Power demand operation - environment and potential. Proposals for main project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wathne, M.

1995-01-01

This report discusses proposals for a main project on environmental and other problems arising when hydroelectric power stations supply energy at gigawatt levels. The project aims in particular to identify environmental problems where too little is known today for proper planning of this type of operation. The proposals emphasize the consequences which cannot be adequately analysed in terms of current techniques. These techniques presuppose steady state conditions. One proposal concerns market terms for power sales. Other proposals deal with hydrological data and uncertainty, capacity of watercourses, ice and temperature, aquatic eco-systems, erosion, supersaturation of water with air, flooding and dam breaks, impact on climate, inflow of fresh water in fjords and impact on algae. 33 refs., 4 tabs

Water vulnerabilities for existing coal-fired power plants.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Elcock, D.; Kuiper, J.; Environmental Science Division

2010-08-19

This report was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) Existing Plants Research Program, which has an energy-water research effort that focuses on water use at power plants. This study complements the Existing Plants Research Program's overall research effort by evaluating water issues that could impact power plants. Water consumption by all users in the United States over the 2005-2030 time period is projected to increase by about 7% (from about 108 billion gallons per day [bgd] to about 115 bgd) (Elcock 2010). By contrast, water consumption by coal-fired power plants over this period is projected to increase by about 21% (from about 2.4 to about 2.9 bgd) (NETL 2009b). The high projected demand for water by power plants, which is expected to increase even further as carbon-capture equipment is installed, combined with decreasing freshwater supplies in many areas, suggests that certain coal-fired plants may be particularly vulnerable to potential water demand-supply conflicts. If not addressed, these conflicts could limit power generation and lead to power disruptions or increased consumer costs. The identification of existing coal-fired plants that are vulnerable to water demand and supply concerns, along with an analysis of information about their cooling systems and related characteristics, provides information to help focus future research and development (R&D) efforts to help ensure that coal-fired generation demands are met in a cost-effective manner that supports sustainable water use. This study identified coal-fired power plants that are considered vulnerable to water demand and supply issues by using a geographical information system (GIS) that facilitated the analysis of plant-specific data for more than 500 plants in the NETL's Coal Power Plant Database (CPPDB) (NETL 2007a) simultaneously with 18 indicators of water demand and supply. Two types of demand indicators were

Disconnecting the autopilot in urban water projects

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Susanne Balslev; Jensen, Marina Bergen; Øhlenschlæger, Ny

2011-01-01

How can we motivate urban planners, water utilities and house owners to collaborate about sustainable urban water projects and to aim for solutions that go beyond the narrow perspective of individual stakeholder interests? A concept for framing a multidisciplinary learning process is developed...... the early stages of an urban water project. To realise new sustainable urban water designs a project team will need to engage and get acceptance from internal and external stakeholders, and this calls for communication and social skills rather than technical skills. The paper identifies potential...

A Framework for Sustainable Urban Water Management through Demand and Supply Forecasting: The Case of Istanbul

OpenAIRE

Yalçıntaş, Murat; Bulu, Melih; Küçükvar, Murat; Samadi, Hamidreza

2015-01-01

Yayın, Endüstri Mühendisliği Bölümü ile ortak hazırlanmıştır; ancak tekrara düşmemek için ilk yazarın bölümü alınmıştır. The metropolitan city of Istanbul is becoming overcrowded and the demand for clean water is steeply rising in the city. The use of analytical approaches has become more and more critical for forecasting the water supply and demand balance in the long run. In this research, Istanbul’s water supply and demand data is collected for the period during 2006 and 2014. Then, usi...

Testing water demand management scenarios in a water-stressed basin in South Africa: application of the WEAP model

Science.gov (United States)

Lévite, Hervé; Sally, Hilmy; Cour, Julien

Like many river basins in South Africa, water resources in the Olifants river basin are almost fully allocated. Respecting the so-called “reserve” (water flow reservation for basic human needs and the environment) imposed by the Water Law of 1998 adds a further dimension, if not difficulty, to water resources management in the basin, especially during the dry periods. Decision makers and local stakeholders (i.e. municipalities, water users’ associations, interest groups), who will soon be called upon to work together in a decentralized manner within Catchment Management Agencies (CMAs) and Catchment Management Committees (CMCs), must therefore be able to get a rapid and simple understanding of the water balances at different levels in the basin. This paper seeks to assess the pros and cons of using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model for this purpose via its application to the Steelpoort sub-basin of the Olifants river. This model allows the simulation and analysis of various water allocation scenarios and, above all, scenarios of users’ behavior. Water demand management is one of the options discussed in more detail here. Simulations are proposed for diverse climatic situations from dry years to normal years and results are discussed. It is evident that the quality of data (in terms of availability and reliability) is very crucial and must be dealt with carefully and with good judgment. Secondly, credible hypotheses have to be made about water uses (losses, return flow) if the results are to be meaningfully used in support of decision-making. Within the limits of data availability, it appears that some water users are not able to meet all their requirements from the river, and that even the ecological reserve will not be fully met during certain years. But the adoption of water demand management procedures offers opportunities for remedying this situation during normal hydrological years. However, it appears that demand management alone will not

Projection of Chinese motor vehicle growth, oil demand, and CO2 emissions through 2050

Science.gov (United States)

2007-01-01

During this study a methodology was developed to project growth trends of the motor vehicle population and associated oil demand and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in China through 2050. In particular, the numbers of highway vehicles, motorcycles, an...

Accounting for the inaccuracies in demand forecasts and construction cost estimations in transport project evaluation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

2014-01-01

For decades researchers have claimedthat particularly demand forecasts and construction cost estimations are assigned with/affected by a large degree of uncertainty. Massively, articles,research documents and reports agree that there exists a tendencytowards underestimating the costs...... in demand and cost estimations and hence the evaluation of transport infrastructure projects. Currently, research within this area is scarce and scattered with no commonagreement on how to embed and operationalise the huge amount of empiricaldata that exist within the frame of Optimism Bias. Therefore...... convertingdeterministic benefit-cost ratios (BCRs) into stochasticinterval results. A new data collection (2009–2013) forms the empirical basis for any risk simulation embeddedwithin the so-calledUP database (UNITE project database),revealing the inaccuracy of both construction costs and demandforecasts. Accordingly...

Application of stakeholder-based and modelling approaches for supporting robust adaptation decision making under future climatic uncertainty and changing urban-agricultural water demand

Science.gov (United States)

Bhave, Ajay; Dessai, Suraje; Conway, Declan; Stainforth, David

2016-04-01

agricultural water demand significantly affect downstream water availability. Water demand options demonstrate potential to improve environmental flow conditions and satisfy legal water supply requirements for downstream riparian states. On the other hand, currently planned large scale infrastructural projects demonstrate reduced value in certain scenarios, illustrating the impacts of lock-in effects of large scale infrastructure. From a methodological perspective, we find that while the stakeholder-driven approach revealed robust options in a resource-light manner and helped initiate much needed interaction amongst stakeholders, the modelling approach provides complementary quantitative information. The study reveals robust adaptation options for this important basin and provides a strong methodological basis for carrying out future studies that support adaptation decision making.

Energy demand projection of China using a path-coefficient analysis and PSO–GA approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu Shiwei; Zhu Kejun; Zhang Xian

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► The effect mechanism of China’s energy demand is investigated detailedly. ► A hybrid algorithm PSO–GA optimal energy demands estimating model for China. ► China’s energy demand will reach 4.48 billion tce in 2015. ► The proposed method forecast shows its superiority compared with others. - Abstract: Energy demand projection is fundamental to rational energy planning formulation. The present study investigates the direct and indirect effects of five factors, namely GDP, population, proportion of industrial, proportion of urban population and coal percentage of total energy consumption on China’s energy demand, implementing a path-coefficient analysis. On this basis, a hybrid algorithm, Particle Swarm Optimization and Genetic Algorithm optimal Energy Demand Estimating (PSO–GA EDE) model, is proposed for China. The coefficients of the three forms of the model (linear, exponential and quadratic model) are optimized by proposed PSO–GA. To obtain a combinational prediction of three forms, a departure coefficient method is applied to get the combinational weights. The results show that the China’s energy demand will be 4.48 billion tce in 2015. Furthermore; the proposed method forecast shows its superiority compared with other single optimization method such as GA, PSO or ACO and multiple linear regressions.

A Novel approach for predicting monthly water demand by combining singular spectrum analysis with neural networks

Science.gov (United States)

Zubaidi, Salah L.; Dooley, Jayne; Alkhaddar, Rafid M.; Abdellatif, Mawada; Al-Bugharbee, Hussein; Ortega-Martorell, Sandra

2018-06-01

Valid and dependable water demand prediction is a major element of the effective and sustainable expansion of municipal water infrastructures. This study provides a novel approach to quantifying water demand through the assessment of climatic factors, using a combination of a pretreatment signal technique, a hybrid particle swarm optimisation algorithm and an artificial neural network (PSO-ANN). The Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) technique was adopted to decompose and reconstruct water consumption in relation to six weather variables, to create a seasonal and stochastic time series. The results revealed that SSA is a powerful technique, capable of decomposing the original time series into many independent components including trend, oscillatory behaviours and noise. In addition, the PSO-ANN algorithm was shown to be a reliable prediction model, outperforming the hybrid Backtracking Search Algorithm BSA-ANN in terms of fitness function (RMSE). The findings of this study also support the view that water demand is driven by climatological variables.

Interdisciplinary Water and Sanitation Project in Burkina Faso

OpenAIRE

船水, 尚行

2017-01-01

Interdisciplinary project on water and sanitation was performed in Burkina Faso from 2010 to 2015. The title of the project was “Development of sustainable water and sanitation systems in the African Sahel region”, and the project was supported by SATREPS (JST and JICA) and collaborated with International Institute of Water and Sanitation (2iE). The main purpose of the project was to develop and demonstrate the new system of water and sanitation based on the concept of “do not mix” and “do no...

Influence of the South-North Water Diversion Project and the mitigation projects on the water quality of Han River.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Y P; Zhang, H P; Chen, L; Zhao, J F

2008-11-15

Situated in the central part of China, the Han River Basin is undergoing rapid social and economic development with some human interventions to be made soon which will profoundly influence the water environment of the basin. The integrated MIKE 11 model system comprising of a rainfall-runoff model (NAM), a non-point load evaluation model (LOAD), a hydrodynamic model (MIKE 11 HD) and a water quality model (ECOLab) was applied to investigate the impact of the Middle Route of the South-North Water Diversion Project on the Han River and the effectiveness of the 2 proposed mitigation projects, the 22 wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) and the Yangtze-Han Water Diversion Project. The study concludes that business as usual will lead to a continuing rapid deterioration of the water quality of the Han River. Implementation of the Middle Route of the South-North Water Diversion Project in 2010 will bring disastrous consequence in the form of the remarkably elevated pollution level and high risk of algae bloom in the middle and lower reaches. The proposed WWTPs will merely lower the pollution level in the reach by around 10%, while the Yangtze-Han Water Diversion Project can significantly improve the water quality in the downstream 200-km reach. The results reveal that serious water quality problem will emerge in the middle reach between Xiangfan and Qianjiang in the future. Implementation of the South-North Water Diversion Project (phase II) in 2030 will further exacerbate the problem. In order to effectively improve the water quality of the Han River, it is suggested that nutrient removal processes should be adopted in the proposed WWTPs, and the pollution load from the non-point sources, especially the load from the upstream Henan Province, should be effectively controlled.

Forecasting the Water Demand in Chongqing, China Using a Grey Prediction Model and Recommendations for the Sustainable Development of Urban Water Consumption.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Hua'an; Zeng, Bo; Zhou, Meng

2017-11-15

High accuracy in water demand predictions is an important basis for the rational allocation of city water resources and forms the basis for sustainable urban development. The shortage of water resources in Chongqing, the youngest central municipality in Southwest China, has significantly increased with the population growth and rapid economic development. In this paper, a new grey water-forecasting model (GWFM) was built based on the data characteristics of water consumption. The parameter estimation and error checking methods of the GWFM model were investigated. Then, the GWFM model was employed to simulate the water demands of Chongqing from 2009 to 2015 and forecast it in 2016. The simulation and prediction errors of the GWFM model was checked, and the results show the GWFM model exhibits better simulation and prediction precisions than those of the classical Grey Model with one variable and single order equation GM(1,1) for short and the frequently-used Discrete Grey Model with one variable and single order equation, DGM(1,1) for short. Finally, the water demand in Chongqing from 2017 to 2022 was forecasted, and some corresponding control measures and recommendations were provided based on the prediction results to ensure a viable water supply and promote the sustainable development of the Chongqing economy.

A Water Demand Management Strategy For The Namibian Tourism Sector

Science.gov (United States)

Schachtschneider, K.; Winter, K.

The arid conditions of Namibia are forcing its decision-makers to resort to new wa- ter resource management approaches, including Water Demand Management (WDM). When Namibia achieved its independence from South Africa 1990, a new opportunity arose to rewrite certain restrictive laws and policies in order to bring about redress, development and transformation. The new Water Policy is one example in which the mindset is changed from a supply to a demand oriented water management ap- proach. Legal support for WDM within the new Water Act is a critical component that will support the implementation of WDM in all economic sectors, such as agri- culture, mining and tourism. It is argued that an appropriate WDM strategy should be designed specifically for each sector, once the typical water use patterns in a sec- tor are understood and key water resource managers at all levels are identified. The Namibian tourism sector is geographically dispersed and control over its operations is compounded by the fact that it is frequently located in extremely remote areas that are arid and ecologically sensitive. In general, WDM is rarely practised, because it is not yet supported by law and there are currently no institutional arrangements to con- trol water use in this geographically dispersed industrial sector through which WDM could be enforced either through metering and/or payments. Managers of tourist en- terprises undertake most of the water management themselves, and have been identi- fied as being crucial to the implementation of WDM strategies. A study of six tourist facilities determined the willingness and motivation of these managers to undertake various WDM initiatives. The study identified three factors which appear to influence the actions of managers, namely external controls, economics and company ethics. It is recommended that a tourism sector WDM strategy should focus on these three factors in order to transform the WDM aims and objectives on the policy level into

Robustness of the Drinking Water Distribution Network under Changing Future Demand

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Agudelo-Vera, C.; Blokker, M.; Vreeburg, J.; Bongard, T.; Hillegers, S.; Van der Hoek, J.P.

2014-01-01

A methodology to determine the robustness of the drinking water distribution system is proposed. The performance of three networks under ten future demand scenarios was tested, using head loss and residence time as indicators. The scenarios consider technological and demographic changes. Daily

[Method for optimal sensor placement in water distribution systems with nodal demand uncertainties].

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Shu-Ming; Wu, Xue; Ouyang, Le-Yan

2013-08-01

The notion of identification fitness was proposed for optimizing sensor placement in water distribution systems. Nondominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II was used to find the Pareto front between minimum overlap of possible detection times of two events and the best probability of detection, taking nodal demand uncertainties into account. This methodology was applied to an example network. The solutions show that the probability of detection and the number of possible locations are not remarkably affected by nodal demand uncertainties, but the sources identification accuracy declines with nodal demand uncertainties.

Selecting downscaled climate projections for water resource impacts and adaptation

Science.gov (United States)

Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Hingray, Benoît

2015-04-01

Increasingly large ensembles of global and regional climate projections are being produced and delivered to the climate impact community. However, such an enormous amount of information can hardly been dealt with by some impact models due to computational constraints. Strategies for transparently selecting climate projections are therefore urgently needed for informing small-scale impact and adaptation studies and preventing potential pitfalls in interpreting ensemble results from impact models. This work proposes results from a selection approach implemented for an integrated water resource impact and adaptation study in the Durance river basin (Southern French Alps). A large ensemble of 3000 daily transient gridded climate projections was made available for this study. It was built from different runs of 4 ENSEMBLES Stream2 GCMs, statistically downscaled by 3 probabilistic methods based on the K-nearest neighbours resampling approach (Lafaysse et al., 2014). The selection approach considered here exemplifies one of the multiple possible approaches described in a framework for identifying tailored subsets of climate projections for impact and adaptation studies proposed by Vidal & Hingray (2014). It was chosen based on the specificities of both the study objectives and the characteristics of the projection dataset. This selection approach aims at propagating as far as possible the relative contributions of the four different sources of uncertainties considered, namely GCM structure, large-scale natural variability, structure of the downscaling method, and catchment-scale natural variability. Moreover, it took the form of a hierarchical structure to deal with the specific constraints of several types of impact models (hydrological models, irrigation demand models and reservoir management models). The implemented 3-layer selection approach is therefore mainly based on conditioned Latin Hypercube sampling (Christierson et al., 2012). The choice of conditioning

Water governance within Kenya's Upper Ewaso Ng'iro Basin: Assessing the performance of water projects

Science.gov (United States)

McCord, P. F.; Evans, T. P.; Dell'Angelo, J.; Gower, D.; McBride, L.; Caylor, K. K.

2013-12-01

Climate change processes are projected to change the availability and seasonality of streamflow with dramatic implications for irrigated agricultural systems. Within mountain environments, this alteration in water availability may be quite pronounced over a relatively short distance as upstream users with first access to river water directly impact the availability of water to downstream users. Livelihood systems that directly depend on river water for both domestic consumption and practices such as irrigated agriculture are particularly vulnerable. The Mount Kenya region is an exemplary case of a semi-arid upstream-downstream system in which water availability rapidly decreases and directly impacts the livelihoods of river water users existing across this steep environmental gradient. To effectively manage river water within these water-scarce environs, water projects have been established along the major rivers of the Mount Kenya region. These water projects are responsible for managing water within discrete sub-catchments of the region. While water projects develop rules that encourage the responsible use of water and maintenance of the project itself, the efficiency of water allocation to the projects' members remains unclear. This research analyzes water projects from five sub-catchments on the northwest slopes of Mount Kenya. It utilizes data from household surveys and water project management surveys as well as stream gauge data and flow measurements within individual water projects to assess the governance structure and performance of water projects. The performance of water projects is measured through a variety of household level metrics including: farm-level water flow and volume over time, mean and variability in maize yield, per capita crop productivity, household-level satisfaction with water availability, number of days where water volume was insufficient for irrigation, and quantity harvested compared with expected quantity harvested. We present

Demand side management for commercial buildings using an in line heat pump water heating methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rankin, Riaan; Rousseau, Pieter G.; Eldik, Martin van

2004-01-01

Most of the sanitary hot water used in South African buildings is heated by means of direct electrical resistance heaters. This is one of the major contributors to the undesirably high morning and afternoon peaks imposed on the national electricity supply grid. For this reason, water heating continues to be of concern to the electricity supplier, ESCOM. Previous studies, conducted by the Potchefstroom University for Christian Higher Education in South Africa, indicated that extensive application of the so called inline heat pump water heating methodology in commercial buildings could result in significant demand side management savings to ESKOM. Furthermore, impressive paybacks can be obtained by building owners who choose to implement the design methodology on existing or new systems. Currently, a few examples exist where the design methodology has been successfully implemented. These installations are monitored with a fully web centric monitoring system that allows 24 h access to data from each installation. Based on these preliminary results, a total peak demand reduction of 108 MW can be achieved, which represents 18% of the peak load reduction target set by ESKOM until the year 2015. This represents an avoided cost of approximately MR324 (ZAR) [Int J Energy Res 25(4) (1999) 2000]. Results based on actual data from the monitored installations shows a significant peak demand reduction for each installation. In one installation, a hotel with an occupancy of 220 people, the peak demand contribution of the hot water installation was reduced by 86%, realizing a 36% reduction in peak demand for the whole building. The savings incurred by the building owner also included significant energy consumption savings due to the superior energy efficiency of the heat pump water heater. The combined savings result in a conservatively calculated straight payback period of 12.5 months, with an internal rate of return of 98%. The actual cost of water heating is studied by

Integrated management of water resources demand and supply in irrigated agriculture from plot to regional scale

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Schütze

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Growing water scarcity in agriculture is an increasing problem in future in many regions of the world. Recent trends of weather extremes in Saxony, Germany also enhance drought risks for agricultural production. In addition, signals of longer and more intense drought conditions during the vegetation period can be found in future regional climate scenarios for Saxony. However, those climate predictions are associated with high uncertainty and therefore, e.g. stochastic methods are required to analyze the impact of changing climate patterns on future crop water requirements and water availability. For assessing irrigation as a measure to increase agricultural water security a generalized stochastic approach for a spatial distributed estimation of future irrigation water demand is proposed, which ensures safe yields and a high water productivity at the same time. The developed concept of stochastic crop water production functions (SCWPF can serve as a central decision support tool for both, (i a cost benefit analysis of farm irrigation modernization on a local scale and (ii a regional water demand management using a multi-scale approach for modeling and implementation. The new approach is applied using the example of a case study in Saxony, which is dealing with the sustainable management of future irrigation water demands and its implementation.

Relationships demand-supply of water and the rate of water shortage as tools for evaluating water resources in Colombia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dominguez Calle, Efrain Antonio; Gonzalo Rivera, Hebert; Vanegas, Sarmiento Raquel; Moreno, Pedro

2008-01-01

This paper shows updated results about Colombian water resources and their requirements by the economic sectors. Water demand water availability relationship is used as a pressure index on water resources. This relationship is expressed through the water scarcity index, which applies constraints over water availability; due to the runoff temporal variability and to the low levels of water during the dry season each year and for each geographic region to characterize average and low runoff years. Different water availability scenarios were building. One for modal runoff values and another for 95 percents for 2025 also were prepared. To the results call our attention to problems caused by the concentration of high density settlements and the presence of economics sectors in regions with low water availability. The infrastructure lag for management of a scarce high variable and over pressured resources emerges as a key factor to avoid a looming crisis in the process of water management

Renewable energy technologies for irrigation water pumping in India: projected levels of dissemination, energy delivery and investment requirements using available diffusion models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pallav Purohit; Kandpal, T.C. [Indian Institute of Technology, New Delhi (India). Centre for Energy Studies

2005-12-01

Using the past diffusion trends of four renewable energy technologies for irrigation water pumping in India (SPV pumps, windmill pumps and biogas/producer gas driven dual fuel engine pumps), results of an attempt to project their future dissemination levels, have been presented in this study. The likely contribution of the renewable energy options considered in the study to the projected energy demand for irrigation water pumping in India has been estimated. Estimates of the associated investment requirements taking into account the learning effect have also been presented. (author)

Canadian heavy water production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dahlinger, A.; Lockerby, W.E.; Rae, H.K.

1977-05-01

The paper reviews Canadian experience in the production of heavy water, presents a long-term supply projection, relates this projection to the anticipated long-term electrical energy demand, and highlights principal areas for further improvement that form the bulk of our research and development program on heavy water processes

Projections of Demand for Cardiovascular Surgery and Supply of Surgeons.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Jung Jeung; Park, Nam Hee; Lee, Kun Sei; Chee, Hyun Keun; Sim, Sung Bo; Kim, Myo Jeong; Choi, Ji Suk; Kim, Myunghwa; Park, Choon Seon

2016-12-01

While demand for cardiovascular surgery is expected to increase gradually along with the rapid increase in cardiovascular diseases with respect to the aging population, the supply of thoracic and cardiovascular surgeons has been continuously decreasing over the past 10 years. Consequently, this study aims to achieve guidance in establishing health care policy by analyzing the supply and demand for cardiovascular surgeries in the medical service area of Korea. After investigating the actual number of cardiovascular surgeries performed using the National Health Insurance claim data of the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service, as well as drawing from national statistics concerning the elderly population aged 65 and over, this study estimated the number of future cardiovascular surgeries by using a cell-based model. To be able to analyze the supply and demand of surgeons, the recent status of new surgeons specializing in thoracic and cardiovascular surgeries and the ratio of their subspecialties in cardiovascular surgeries were investigated. Then, while taking three different scenarios into account, the number of cardiovascular surgeons expected be working in 5-year periods was projected. The number of cardiovascular surgeries, which was recorded at 10,581 cases in 2014, is predicted to increase consistently to reach a demand of 15,501 cases in 2040-an increase of 46.5%. There was a total of 245 cardiovascular surgeons at work in 2014. Looking at 5 year spans in the future, the number of surgeons expected to be supplied in 2040 is 184, to retire is 249, and expected to be working is 309-an increase of -24.9%, 1.6%, and 26.1%, respectively compared to those in 2014. This forecasts a demand-supply imbalance in every scenario. Cardiovascular surgeons are the most central resource in the medical service of highly specialized cardiovascular surgeries, and fostering the surgeons requires much time, effort, and resources; therefore, by analyzing the various factors

75 FR 48986 - Northwest Area Water Supply Project, North Dakota

Science.gov (United States)

2010-08-12

... DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR Bureau of Reclamation Northwest Area Water Supply Project, North Dakota... Area Water Supply Project (NAWS Project), a Federal reclamation project, located in North Dakota. A... CONTACT: Alicia Waters, Northwest Area Water Supply Project EIS, Bureau of Reclamation, Dakotas Area...

75 FR 49518 - Northwest Area Water Supply Project, North Dakota

Science.gov (United States)

2010-08-13

... DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR Bureau of Reclamation Northwest Area Water Supply Project, North Dakota... Area Water Supply Project (NAWS Project), a Federal reclamation project, located in North Dakota. A... CONTACT: Alicia Waters, Northwest Area Water Supply Project EIS, Bureau of Reclamation, Dakotas Area...

Compounding Impacts of Human-Induced Water Stress and Climate Change on Water Availability

Science.gov (United States)

Mehran, Ali; AghaKouchak, Amir; Nakhjiri, Navid; Stewardson, Michael J.; Peel, Murray C.; Phillips, Thomas J.; Wada, Yoshihide; Ravalico, Jakin K.

2017-01-01

The terrestrial phase of the water cycle can be seriously impacted by water management and human water use behavior (e.g., reservoir operation, and irrigation withdrawals). Here we outline a method for assessing water availability in a changing climate, while explicitly considering anthropogenic water demand scenarios and water supply infrastructure designed to cope with climatic extremes. The framework brings a top-down and bottom-up approach to provide localized water assessment based on local water supply infrastructure and projected water demands. When our framework is applied to southeastern Australia we find that, for some combinations of climatic change and water demand, the region could experience water stress similar or worse than the epic Millennium Drought. We show considering only the influence of future climate on water supply, and neglecting future changes in water demand and water storage augmentation might lead to opposing perspectives on future water availability. While human water use can significantly exacerbate climate change impacts on water availability, if managed well, it allows societies to react and adapt to a changing climate. The methodology we present offers a unique avenue for linking climatic and hydrologic processes to water resource supply and demand management and other human interactions.

Exploring Community-Oriented Approaches in Demand Side Management Projects in Europe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anna Mengolini

2016-12-01

Full Text Available This paper seeks to investigate if the theoretical and political trends towards a more collective dimension of energy use are reflected in the design and development of demand side management (DSM pilot projects in Europe. Specifically, the paper analyses DSM projects in the database of the Joint Research Centre (JRC of the European Commission to capture signs of a new attention towards the wider context in which consumers live and towards the social dimension associated with energy consumption. To this end, the paper investigates the projects’ scope (in terms of project’s partners, end-use sectors and targeted services as well as the consumer engagement strategies that projects use. These elements reflect the projects’ consideration for the socio-economic dimension of the community where the pilots take place and their inclination to build on community dynamics. The analysis shows that DSM projects in the EU are increasingly being designed and developed with a collegial approach to energy consumption in mind, although an integrated approach is still missing. In addition, research is still needed to link the use of this innovative approach to project results. A closer look at the developments and results of these projects can help to identify what works and what doesn’t in real life experiences, thus supporting effective policy making at the EU and national level.

The annual number of days that solar heated water satisfies a specified demand temperature

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yohanis, Y.G. [Thermal Systems Engineering Group, Faculty of Engineering, University of Ulster, BT37 0QB Northern Ireland (United Kingdom); Popel, O.; Frid, S.E. [Non-traditional Renewable Energy Sources, Institute for High Temperatures, Russian Academy of Sciences, 13/19 Izhorskaya str., IVTAN, Moscow 127412 (Russian Federation); Norton, B. [Dublin Institute of Technology, Aungier Street, Dublin 2 (Ireland)

2006-08-15

An analysis of solar water heating systems determines the number of days in each month when solar heated water wholly meets demand above a set temperature. The approach has been used to investigate the potential contribution to water heating loads of solar water heating in two UK locations. Correlations between the approach developed and the use of solar fractions are discussed. (author)

Impact of Inter‐Basin Water Transfer Projects on Regional Ecological Security from a Telecoupling Perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuan Quan

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Inter‐basin water transfer projects (IBWTPs offer one of the most important means to solve the mismatch between supply and demand of regional water resources. IBWTPs have impacts on the complex ecosystems of the areas from which water is diverted and to which water is received. These impacts increase damage or risk to regional ecological security and human wellbeing. However, current methods make it difficult to achieve comprehensive analysis of the impacts of whole ecosystems, because of the long distance between ecosystems and the inconsistency of impact events. In this study, a model was proposed for the analysis of the impacts of IBWTPs on regional ecological security. It is based on the telecoupling framework, and the Driver‐Pressure‐State‐ Impact‐Response (DPSIR model was used to improve the analysis procedure within the telecoupling framework. The Middle Line of the South‐to‐North Water Diversion Project was selected as a case study to illustrate the specific analysis procedure. We realized that information sharing is a key issue in the management of regional security, and that the ecological water requirement, in the form of a single index, could be used to quantitatively assess the impacts on ecological security from IBWTPs.

Assessment of the water supply:demand ratios in a Mediterranean basin under different global change scenarios and mitigation alternatives.

Science.gov (United States)

Boithias, Laurie; Acuña, Vicenç; Vergoñós, Laura; Ziv, Guy; Marcé, Rafael; Sabater, Sergi

2014-02-01

Spatial differences in the supply and demand of ecosystem services such as water provisioning often imply that the demand for ecosystem services cannot be fulfilled at the local scale, but it can be fulfilled at larger scales (regional, continental). Differences in the supply:demand (S:D) ratio for a given service result in different values, and these differences might be assessed with monetary or non-monetary metrics. Water scarcity occurs where and when water resources are not enough to meet all the demands, and this affects equally the service of water provisioning and the ecosystem needs. In this study we assess the value of water in a Mediterranean basin under different global change (i.e. both climate and anthropogenic changes) and mitigation scenarios, with a non-monetary metric: the S:D ratio. We computed water balances across the Ebro basin (North-East Spain) with the spatially explicit InVEST model. We highlight the spatial and temporal mismatches existing across a single hydrological basin regarding water provisioning and its consumption, considering or not, the environmental demand (environmental flow). The study shows that water scarcity is commonly a local issue (sub-basin to region), but that all demands are met at the largest considered spatial scale (basin). This was not the case in the worst-case scenario (increasing demands and decreasing supply), as the S:D ratio at the basin scale was near 1, indicating that serious problems of water scarcity might occur in the near future even at the basin scale. The analysis of possible mitigation scenarios reveals that the impact of global change may be counteracted by the decrease of irrigated areas. Furthermore, the comparison between a non-monetary (S:D ratio) and a monetary (water price) valuation metrics reveals that the S:D ratio provides similar values and might be therefore used as a spatially explicit metric to valuate the ecosystem service water provisioning. © 2013.

EnviroAtlas - Industrial Water Demand (2010) by 12-Digit HUC for the Conterminous United States

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This EnviroAtlas dataset includes industrial water demand attributes which provide insight into the amount of water currently used for manufacturing and production...

Northwest Open Automated Demand Response Technology Demonstration Project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kiliccote, Sila; Dudley, Junqiao Han; Piette, Mary Ann

2009-08-01

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and the Demand Response Research Center (DRRC) performed a technology demonstration and evaluation for Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) in Seattle City Light's (SCL) service territory. This report summarizes the process and results of deploying open automated demand response (OpenADR) in Seattle area with winter morning peaking commercial buildings. The field tests were designed to evaluate the feasibility of deploying fully automated demand response (DR) in four to six sites in the winter and the savings from various building systems. The project started in November of 2008 and lasted 6 months. The methodology for the study included site recruitment, control strategy development, automation system deployment and enhancements, and evaluation of sites participation in DR test events. LBNL subcontracted McKinstry and Akuacom for this project. McKinstry assisted with recruitment, site survey collection, strategy development and overall participant and control vendor management. Akuacom established a new server and enhanced its operations to allow for scheduling winter morning day-of and day-ahead events. Each site signed a Memorandum of Agreement with SCL. SCL offered each site $3,000 for agreeing to participate in the study and an additional $1,000 for each event they participated. Each facility and their control vendor worked with LBNL and McKinstry to select and implement control strategies for DR and developed their automation based on the existing Internet connectivity and building control system. Once the DR strategies were programmed, McKinstry commissioned them before actual test events. McKinstry worked with LBNL to identify control points that can be archived at each facility. For each site LBNL collected meter data and trend logs from the energy management and control system. The communication system allowed the sites to receive day-ahead as well as day-of DR test event signals. Measurement of DR was

An Interactive Computer Tool for Teaching About Desalination and Managing Water Demand in the US

Science.gov (United States)

Ziolkowska, J. R.; Reyes, R.

2016-12-01

This paper presents an interactive tool to geospatially and temporally analyze desalination developments and trends in the US in the time span 1950-2013, its current contribution to satisfying water demands and its future potentials. The computer tool is open access and can be used by any user with Internet connection, thus facilitating interactive learning about water resources. The tool can also be used by stakeholders and policy makers for decision-making support and with designing sustainable water management strategies. Desalination technology has been acknowledged as a solution to a sustainable water demand management stemming from many sectors, including municipalities, industry, agriculture, power generation, and other users. Desalination has been applied successfully in the US and many countries around the world since 1950s. As of 2013, around 1,336 desalination plants were operating in the US alone, with a daily production capacity of 2 BGD (billion gallons per day) (GWI, 2013). Despite a steady increase in the number of new desalination plants and growing production capacity, in many regions, the costs of desalination are still prohibitive. At the same time, the technology offers a tremendous potential for `enormous supply expansion that exceeds all likely demands' (Chowdhury et al., 2013). The model and tool are based on data from Global Water Intelligence (GWI, 2013). The analysis shows that more than 90% of all the plants in the US are small-scale plants with the capacity below 4.31 MGD. Most of the plants (and especially larger plants) are located on the US East Coast, as well as in California, Texas, Oklahoma, and Florida. The models and the tool provide information about economic feasibility of potential new desalination plants based on the access to feed water, energy sources, water demand, and experiences of other plants in that region.

The SmartH2O project: a platform supporting residential water management through smart meters and data intensive modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Cominola, A.; Nanda, R.; Giuliani, M.; Piga, D.; Castelletti, A.; Rizzoli, A. E.; Maziotis, A.; Garrone, P.; Harou, J. J.

2014-12-01

Designing effective urban water demand management strategies at the household level does require a deep understanding of the determinants of users' consumption. Low resolution data on residential water consumption, as traditionally metered, can only be used to model consumers' behavior at an aggregate level whereas end uses breakdown and the motivations and individual attitudes of consumers are hidden. The recent advent of smart meters allows gathering high frequency consumption data that can be used both to provide instantaneous information to water utilities on the state of the network and continuously inform the users on their consumption and savings. Smart metered data also allow for the characterization of water end uses: this information, coupled with users' psychographic variables, constitutes the knowledge basis for developing individual and multi users models, through which water utilities can test the impact of different management strategies. SmartH2O is an EU funded project which aims at creating an ICT platform able to (i) capture and store quasi real time, high resolution residential water usage data measured with smart meters, (ii) infer the main determinants of residential water end uses and build customers' behavioral models and (iii) predict how the customer behavior can be influenced by various water demand management strategies, spanning from dynamic water pricing schemes to social awareness campaigns. The project exploits a social computing approach for raising users' awareness about water consumption and pursuing water savings in the residential sector. In this work, we first present the SmartH2O platform and data collection, storage and analysis components. We then introduce some preliminary models and results on total water consumption disaggregation into end uses and single user behaviors using innovative fully automated algorithms and overcoming the need of invasive metering campaigns at the fixture level.

Change in the southern U.S. water demand and supply over the next forty years

Science.gov (United States)

Steven C. McNulty; Ge Sun; Erika C. Cohen; Jennifer A. Moore Myers

2008-01-01

Water shortages are often considered a problem in the western United States, where water supply is limited compared to the eastern half of the country. However, periodic water shortages are also common in the southeastern United States due to high water demand and periodic drought. Southeastern U.S. municipalities spend billions of dollars to develop water storage...

Efficient management of municipal water: water scarcity in Taiz City, Yemen - issues and options

Science.gov (United States)

Noaman, A.; Al-Sharjabe, A. W.

2015-04-01

The city of Taiz is the third largest city in Yemen, located about 250 km south of Sana'a and about 90 km inland from the Red Sea. Taiz is situated on the foothills and slopes of the Jabal Saber Mountain at elevations between 1100 and 1600 m a.s.l. Its population is rapidly increasing and is expected to grow from about 580 000 in 2012 to over 1 000 000 in 2020. Water supply is the most pressing problem in the city of Taiz today due to the significant shortages of supply (the average consumption is 23 L/d) caused by the depletion of existing water resources and the lack of a clear direction in dealing with the problem. This forces frequent service interruptions (30-40 days) and the service is rarely extended to new users (only 57% of the population are covered). Sanitation is another daunting problem. The (poorly maintained) sewerage network covers only 44% of the population. In several unsewered areas to the north, east and west of the city, raw sewage is disposed of directly into wadis, which causes a health hazard and threatens to contaminate groundwater resources. The proper computation of demand and supply is based on the various fields. It was performed under this study with a particular model: the Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP) developed by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI). WEAP is supported by a geographical information system (GIS). The available and relevant data on poverty and social indicators, water use and sources, surface runoff, surface and groundwater availability, groundwater depletion and management, crop production areas, soil cover, maps, and meteorological information were gathered from a number of sources. There are only two ways to decrease the water deficit: by increasing water supply or decreasing the water demand. Any adaptation project aims at one of the two. Six projects are proposed, with three in each category (1, 2 and 3 to decrease demand, and 4, 5 and 6 to increase supply): - Project 1: Improvement of

Satellite mapping of crop water demand in California

Science.gov (United States)

Surface delivery of irrigation water in the San Joaquin Valley is becoming increasingly restricted due to urbanization and environmental regulation, and the strain is projected to worsen under most climate change scenarios. Remote sensing technology offers the potential to monitor crop evapotranspi...

Benefits of improved water quality: a discrete choice analysis of freshwater recreational demands

OpenAIRE

R S Tay; P S McCarthy

1994-01-01

Discrete choice methodologies are increasingly being used to estimate multiple-sites recreational demands and evaluate the welfare effects of alternative environmental policies aimed at water quality improvements. In this study the authors use 1985 data on Indiana anglers to estimate a multinomial logit model of destination choice and compute the benefits of alternative water quality improvements. In general, the results indicate that anglers are reasonably sensitive to changes in water quali...

A generic hydroeconomic model to assess future water scarcity

Science.gov (United States)

Neverre, Noémie; Dumas, Patrice

2015-04-01

We developed a generic hydroeconomic model able to confront future water supply and demand on a large scale, taking into account man-made reservoirs. The assessment is done at the scale of river basins, using only globally available data; the methodology can thus be generalized. On the supply side, we evaluate the impacts of climate change on water resources. The available quantity of water at each site is computed using the following information: runoff is taken from the outputs of CNRM climate model (Dubois et al., 2010), reservoirs are located using Aquastat, and the sub-basin flow-accumulation area of each reservoir is determined based on a Digital Elevation Model (HYDRO1k). On the demand side, agricultural and domestic demands are projected in terms of both quantity and economic value. For the agricultural sector, globally available data on irrigated areas and crops are combined in order to determine irrigated crops localization. Then, crops irrigation requirements are computed for the different stages of the growing season using Allen (1998) method with Hargreaves potential evapotranspiration. Irrigation water economic value is based on a yield comparison approach between rainfed and irrigated crops. Potential irrigated and rainfed yields are taken from LPJmL (Blondeau et al., 2007), or from FAOSTAT by making simple assumptions on yield ratios. For the domestic sector, we project the combined effects of demographic growth, economic development and water cost evolution on future demands. The method consists in building three-blocks inverse demand functions where volume limits of the blocks evolve with the level of GDP per capita. The value of water along the demand curve is determined from price-elasticity, price and demand data from the literature, using the point-expansion method, and from water costs data. Then projected demands are confronted to future water availability. Operating rules of the reservoirs and water allocation between demands are based on

Modeling and Clustering Water Demand Patterns from Real-World Smart Meter Data

OpenAIRE

CHEIFETZ , Nicolas; Noumir , Zineb; Same , Allou; SANDRAZ , Anne-Claire; FELIERS , Cédric; HEIM , Véronique

2017-01-01

Nowadays, drinking water utilities need an acute comprehension of the water demand on their distribution network, in order to efficiently operate the optimization of resources, manage billing and propose new customer services. With the emergence of smart grids, based on automated meter reading (AMR), a better understanding of the consumption modes is now accessible for smart cities with more granularities. In this context, this paper evaluates a novel methodology for identif...

GRI baseline projection of U.S. energy supply and demand to 2010. An occasional publication of Gas Research Institute on topics of current interest. December 1989

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holtberg, P.D.; Woods, T.J.; Lihn, M.L.; McCabe, N.C.

1989-12-01

The report summarizes the 1989 GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand, which was adopted as a major input to the planning cycle leading to the development of GRI's 1991 R and D program. Summary tables, sectoral breakdowns of energy demand, and the natural gas supply and price trends are presented. Appendixes include a discussion of the methodology and assumptions used to prepare the 1989 projection, and analysis of the potential for higher levels of gas demand, a description of industrial and commercial cogeneration energy supply and demand, a comparison of the 1989 projection with previous GRI projections, and a discussion of additional data used in developing the projection

Projections of Demand for Cardiovascular Surgery and Supply of Surgeons

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jung Jeung Lee

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Background: While demand for cardiovascular surgery is expected to increase gradually along with the rapid increase in cardiovascular diseases with respect to the aging population, the supply of thoracic and cardiovascular surgeons has been continuously decreasing over the past 10 years. Consequently, this study aims to achieve guidance in establishing health care policy by analyzing the supply and demand for cardiovascular surgeries in the medical service area of Korea. Methods: After investigating the actual number of cardiovascular surgeries performed using the National Health Insurance claim data of the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service, as well as drawing from national statistics concerning the elderly population aged 65 and over, this study estimated the number of future cardiovascular surgeries by using a cell-based model. To be able to analyze the supply and demand of surgeons, the recent status of new surgeons specializing in thoracic and cardiovascular surgeries and the ratio of their subspecialties in cardiovascular surgeries were investigated. Then, while taking three different scenarios into account, the number of cardiovascular surgeons expected be working in 5-year periods was projected. Results: The number of cardiovascular surgeries, which was recorded at 10,581 cases in 2014, is predicted to increase consistently to reach a demand of 15,501 cases in 2040—an increase of 46.5%. There was a total of 245 cardiovascular surgeons at work in 2014. Looking at 5 year spans in the future, the number of surgeons expected to be supplied in 2040 is 184, to retire is 249, and expected to be working is 309—an increase of -24.9%, 1.6%, and 26.1%, respectively compared to those in 2014. This forecasts a demand-supply imbalance in every scenario. Conclusion: Cardiovascular surgeons are the most central resource in the medical service of highly specialized cardiovascular surgeries, and fostering the surgeons requires much time

Water and Climate Impacts on Power System Operations: The Importance of Cooling Systems and Demand Response Measures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Macknick, Jordan [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Zhou, Ella [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); O' Connell, Matthew [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Brinkman, Gregory [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Miara, Ariel [City College of New York, NY (United States); Ibanez, Eduardo [GE Energy Connections, Atlanta, GA (United States); Hummon, Marissa [Tendril, Denver, CO (United States)

2016-12-01

The U.S. electricity sector is highly dependent upon water resources; changes in water temperatures and water availability can affect operational costs and the reliability of power systems. Despite the importance of water for power system operations, the effects of changes in water characteristics on multiple generators in a system are generally not modeled. Moreover, demand response measures, which can change the magnitude and timing of loads and can have beneficial impacts on power system operations, have not yet been evaluated in the context of water-related power vulnerabilities. This effort provides a first comprehensive vulnerability and cost analysis of water-related impacts on a modeled power system and the potential for demand response measures to address vulnerability and cost concerns. This study uniquely combines outputs and inputs of a water and power plant system model, production cost, model, and relative capacity value model to look at variations in cooling systems, policy-related thermal curtailments, and demand response measures to characterize costs and vulnerability for a test system. Twenty-five scenarios over the course of one year are considered: a baseline scenario as well as a suite of scenarios to evaluate six cooling system combinations, the inclusion or exclusion of policy-related thermal curtailments, and the inclusion or exclusion of demand response measures. A water and power plant system model is utilized to identify changes in power plant efficiencies resulting from ambient conditions, a production cost model operating at an hourly scale is used to calculate generation technology dispatch and costs, and a relative capacity value model is used to evaluate expected loss of carrying capacity for the test system.

Optimal crop selection and water allocation under limited water supply in irrigation

Science.gov (United States)

Stange, Peter; Grießbach, Ulrike; Schütze, Niels

2015-04-01

Due to climate change, extreme weather conditions such as droughts may have an increasing impact on irrigated agriculture. To cope with limited water resources in irrigation systems, a new decision support framework is developed which focuses on an integrated management of both irrigation water supply and demand at the same time. For modeling the regional water demand, local (and site-specific) water demand functions are used which are derived from optimized agronomic response on farms scale. To account for climate variability the agronomic response is represented by stochastic crop water production functions (SCWPF). These functions take into account different soil types, crops and stochastically generated climate scenarios. The SCWPF's are used to compute the water demand considering different conditions, e.g., variable and fixed costs. This generic approach enables the consideration of both multiple crops at farm scale as well as of the aggregated response to water pricing at a regional scale for full and deficit irrigation systems. Within the SAPHIR (SAxonian Platform for High Performance IRrigation) project a prototype of a decision support system is developed which helps to evaluate combined water supply and demand management policies.

An inventory control project in a major Danish company using compound renewal demand models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Christian; Seiding, Claus Hoe; Teller, Christian

operation is highly automated. However, the procedures for estimating demands and the policies for the inventory control system that were in use at the beginning of the project did not fully match the sophisticated technological standard of the physical system. During the initial phase of the project...... We describe the development of a framework to compute the optimal inventory policy for a large spare-parts' distribution centre operation in the RA division of the Danfoss Group in Denmark. The RA division distributes spare parts worldwide for cooling and A/C systems. The warehouse logistics...

Agricultural water conservation programs in the lower Colorado River Authority

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kabir, J.

1993-01-01

Rice irrigation is the largest user of water within the area served by the Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA), accounting for approximately 75 percent of total annual surface and ground water demands. In an average year, about 30 percent of surface water supplied to rice irrigation is satisfied with water released from the storage in the Highland Lakes located at the upstream reaches of the Lower Colorado River and its tributaries. During a severe drought, the demand for stored water could be as much as 70 percent of annual rice irrigation demand. LCRA owns and operates two irrigation canal systems which together supply water to irrigate 60,000 acres of rice each year. These irrigation systems are the Lakeside and Gulf Coast Irrigation Divisions. The Lakeside system is located in Colorado and Wharton Counties and the Gulf Coast system is located in Wharton and Matagorda Counties. In the 1987 and 1989, the Lower Colorado River Authority Board of Directors authorized implementation and funding for Canal Rehabilitation Project and Irrigation Water Measurement Project respectively. These two projects are key initiatives to agricultural water conservation goals established in the LCRA Water Management Plan and Water Conservation Policy. In addition LCRA participated actively in agricultural water conservation research projects and technology transfer activities

Moving towards Optimising Demand-Led Learning: The 2005-2007 ECUANET Leonardo Da Vinci Project

Science.gov (United States)

Dealtry, Richard; Howard, Keith

2008-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to present the key project learning points and outcomes as a guideline for the future quality management of demand-led learning and development. Design/methodology/approach: The research methodology was based upon a corporate university blueprint architecture and browser toolkit developed by a member of the…

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Freight Transportation Demand: Energy-Efficient Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grenzeback, L. R.; Brown, A.; Fischer, M. J.; Hutson, N.; Lamm, C. R.; Pei, Y. L.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Vyas, A. D.; Winebrake, J. J.

2013-03-01

Freight transportation demand is projected to grow to 27.5 billion tons in 2040, and to nearly 30.2 billion tons in 2050. This report describes the current and future demand for freight transportation in terms of tons and ton-miles of commodities moved by truck, rail, water, pipeline, and air freight carriers. It outlines the economic, logistics, transportation, and policy and regulatory factors that shape freight demand, the trends and 2050 outlook for these factors, and their anticipated effect on freight demand. After describing federal policy actions that could influence future freight demand, the report then summarizes the capabilities of available analytical models for forecasting freight demand. This is one in a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency effort to pinpoint underexplored strategies for reducing GHGs and petroleum dependence related to transportation.

Feasibility of Rainwater Harvesting to fulfill potable water demand using quantitative water management in low-lying delta regions of Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Mahmood, A.; Hossain, F.

2016-12-01

Low-lying deltas of Asian region are usually densely populated and located in developing countries situated at the downstream end of major rivers. Extensive dam construction by the upstream countries has now caused water scarcity in large portions of low-lying deltas. Most inhabitants depend on shallow tube well for safe drinking water that tend to suffer from water quality issues (e.g. Arsenic contamination). In addition, people also get infected from water borne diseases like Cholera and Typhoid due to lack of safe drinking water. Developing a centralized piped network based water supply system is often not a feasible option in rural regions. Due to social acceptability, environment friendliness, lower capital and maintenance cost, rainwater harvesting can be the most sustainable option to supply safe drinking water in rural areas. In this study, first we estimate the monthly rainfall variability using long precipitation climatology from satellite precipitation data. The upper and lower bounds of monthly harvestable rainwater were estimated for each satellite precipitation grid. Taking this lower bound of monthly harvestable rainwater as input, we use quantitative water management concept to determine the percent of the time of the year potable water demand can be fulfilled. Analysis indicates that a 6 m³ reservoir tank can fulfill the potable water demand of a 6 person family throughout a year in almost all parts of this region.

Demand-side management project for Tenaga Nasional Berhad. Progress report No. 4. Export trade information

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1995-03-01

This study, conducted by the California Energy Commission, was funded by the U.S. Trade and Development Agency. Progress Report No. 4 is divided into the following contents: April 6, 1994 Training Mission Delegation Itinerary; April 6, 1994 Training Mission Workshop Information Package; Letter to Chairman of Tenaga Nasional Berhad Requesting Demonstration Project Funding; Design/Build Construction Bid Proposal for Energy Efficient Electric Technology Demontration Project; Final Draft of Demand-Side Management Plan for Tenaga Nasional Berhad; Attachments.

Specific net present value: an improved method for assessing modularisation costs in water services with growing demand.

Science.gov (United States)

Maurer, M

2009-05-01

A specific net present value (SNPV) approach is introduced as a criterion in economic engineering decisions. The SNPV expresses average costs, including the growth rate and plant utilisation over the planning horizon, factors that are excluded from a standard net present value approach. The use of SNPV favours alternatives that are cheaper per service unit and are therefore closer to the costs that a user has to cover. It also shows that demand growth has a similar influence on average costs as an economy of scale. In a high growth scenario, solutions providing less idle capacity can have higher present value costs and still be economically favourable. The SNPV approach is applied in two examples to calculate acceptable additional costs for modularisation and comparable costs for on-site treatment (OST) as an extreme form of modularisation. The calculations show that: (i) the SNPV approach is suitable for quantifying the comparable costs of an OST system in a different scenario; (ii) small systems with projected high demand growth rates and high real interest rates are the most probable entry market for OST water treatment systems; (iii) operating expenses are currently the main economic weakness of membrane-based wastewater OST systems; and (iv) when high growth in demand is expected, up to 100% can be additionally invested in modularisation and staging the expansion of a treatment plant.

Setting Ambitious yet Achievable Targets Using Probabilistic Projections: Meeting Demand for Family Planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Kantorová, Vladimíra; New, Jin Rou; Biddlecom, Ann; Alkema, Leontine

2017-09-01

In 2015, governments adopted 17 internationally agreed goals to ensure progress and well-being in the economic, social, and environmental dimensions of sustainable development. These new goals present a challenge for countries to set empirical targets that are ambitious yet achievable and that can account for different starting points and rates of progress. We used probabilistic projections of family planning indicators, based on a global data set and Bayesian hierarchical modeling, to generate illustrative targets at the country level. Targets were defined as the percentage of demand for family planning satisfied with modern contraceptive methods where a country has at least a 10 percent chance of reaching the target by 2030. National targets for 2030 ranged from below 50 percent of demand satisfied with modern contraceptives (for three countries in Africa) to above 90 percent (for 41 countries from all major areas of the world). The probabilistic approach also identified countries for which a global fixed target value of 75 percent demand satisfied was either unambitious or has little chance of achievement. We present the web-based Family Planning Estimation Tool (FPET) enabling national decision makers to compute and assess targets for meeting family planning demand. © 2017 The Population Council, Inc.

Options for decoupling economic growth from water use and water pollution: A report of the Water Working Group of the International Resource Panel Options for decoupling economic growth from water use and water pollution

Science.gov (United States)

Global trends have pointed to a relative decoupling of water – that is, the rate of water resource use is increasing at a rate slower than that of economic growth. Despite this progress at the global level, it is projected that by 2030 there will be a 40% gap between water supply and water demand if...

Exploring Tradeoffs in Demand-Side and Supply-Side Management of Urban Water Resources Using Agent-Based Modeling and Evolutionary Computation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lufthansa Kanta

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Urban water supply systems may be managed through supply-side and demand-side strategies, which focus on water source expansion and demand reductions, respectively. Supply-side strategies bear infrastructure and energy costs, while demand-side strategies bear costs of implementation and inconvenience to consumers. To evaluate the performance of demand-side strategies, the participation and water use adaptations of consumers should be simulated. In this study, a Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS framework is developed to simulate consumer agents that change their consumption to affect the withdrawal from the water supply system, which, in turn influences operational policies and long-term resource planning. Agent-based models are encoded to represent consumers and a policy maker agent and are coupled with water resources system simulation models. The CAS framework is coupled with an evolutionary computation-based multi-objective methodology to explore tradeoffs in cost, inconvenience to consumers, and environmental impacts for both supply-side and demand-side strategies. Decisions are identified to specify storage levels in a reservoir that trigger: (1 increases in the volume of water pumped through inter-basin transfers from an external reservoir; and (2 drought stages, which restrict the volume of water that is allowed for residential outdoor uses. The proposed methodology is demonstrated for Arlington, Texas, water supply system to identify non-dominated strategies for an historic drought decade. Results demonstrate that pumping costs associated with maximizing environmental reliability exceed pumping costs associated with minimizing restrictions on consumer water use.

Evaluation of Water Security in Kathmandu Valley before and after Water Transfer from another Basin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bhesh Raj Thapa

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Kathmandu Upatyaka Khanepani Limited (KUKL has planned to harness water from outside the valley from Melamchi as an inter-basin project to supply water inside the ring road (core valley area of the Kathmandu Valley (KV. The project, called the “Melamchi Water Supply Project (MWSP”, is expected to have its first phase completed by the end of September 2018 and its second phase completed by the end of 2023 to supply 170 MLD (million liters a day through the first phase and an additional 340 MLD through the second phase. The area has recently faced a severe water deficit and KUKL’s existing infrastructure has had a limited capability, supplying only 19% of the water that is demanded in its service areas during the dry season and 31% during the wet season. In this context, this study aims to assess the temporal trends and spatial distribution of household water security index (WSI, defined as a ratio of supply to demand for domestic water use for basic human water requirements (50 L per capita per day (lpcd and economic growth (135 lpcd as demand in pre- and post-MWSP scenarios. For this purpose, data on water demand and supply with infrastructure were used to map the spatial distribution of WSI and per capita water supply using ArcMap. Results show a severe water insecurity condition in the year 2017 in all KUKL service areas (SAs, which is likely to improve after completion of the MWSP. It is likely that recent distribution network and strategies may lead to inequality in water distribution within the SAs. This can possibly be addressed by expanding existing distribution networks and redistributing potable water, which can serve an additional 1.21 million people in the area. Service providers may have to develop strategies to strengthen a set of measures including improving water supply infrastructures, optimizing water loss, harnessing additional water from hills, and managing water within and outside the KUKL SAs in the long run to cover

THE ANALYSIS OF THE TIME-SERIES FLUCTUATION OF WATER DEMAND FOR THE SMALL WATER SUPPLY BLOCK

Science.gov (United States)

Koizumi, Akira; Suehiro, Miki; Arai, Yasuhiro; Inakazu, Toyono; Masuko, Atushi; Tamura, Satoshi; Ashida, Hiroshi

The purpose of this study is to define one apartment complex as "the water supply block" and to show the relationship between the amount of water supply for an apartment house and its time series fluctuation. We examined the observation data which were collected from 33 apartment houses. The water meters were installed at individual observation points for about 20 days in Tokyo. This study used Fourier analysis in order to grasp the irregularity in a time series data. As a result, this paper demonstrated that the smaller the amount of water supply became, the larger irregularity the time series fluctuation had. We also found that it was difficult to describe the daily cyclical pattern for a small apartment house using the dominant periodic components which were obtained from a Fourier spectrum. Our research give useful information about the design for a directional water supply system, as to making estimates of the hourly fluctuation and the maximum daily water demand.

The Advanced Exploration Systems Water Recovery Project: Innovation on 2 Fronts

Science.gov (United States)

Sarguisingh, Miriam M.; Neumeyer, Derek; Shull, Sarah

2012-01-01

As NASA looks forward to sending humans farther away from Earth, we will have to develop a transportation architecture that is highly reliable and that can sustain life for long durations without the benefit of Earth s proximity for continuous resupply or even operational guidance. NASA has consistently been challenged with performing great feats of innovation, but particularly in this time of economic stress, we are challenged to go farther with less. The Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) projects were implemented to address both of these needs by not only developing innovative technologies, but by incorporating innovative management styles and processes that foster the needed technical innovation given a small amount of resources. This presentation explains how the AES Water Recovery Project is exhibiting innovation on both fronts; technical and process. The AES Water Recovery Project (WRP) is actively engineering innovative technologies in order to maximize the efficiency of water recovery. The development of reliable, energy-efficient, and low-mass spacecraft systems to provide environmental control and life support (ECLS) is critical to enable long-duration human missions outside of low-Earth orbit. Recycling of life support consumables is necessary to reduce resupply mass and provide for vehicle autonomy. To address this, the WRP is working on a rotary distiller that has shown enhanced performance over the state-of-the-art (SOA). Additionally, the WRP is looking at innovative ways to address issues present in the state-of-the-art (SOA) systems pertaining to toxicity and calcium scale buildup. As an AES project, the WRP has a more streamlined Skunk Works like approach to technology development intended to reduce overhead but achieve a more refined end product. The project has incorporated key partnerships between NASA centers as well as between NASA and industry. A minimal project management style has been implemented such that risks are managed and

A model exploring whether the coupled effects of plant water supply and demand affect the interpretation of water potentials and irrigation management

OpenAIRE

Spinelli, GM; Shackel, KA; Gilbert, ME

2017-01-01

© 2017 Elsevier B.V. Water potential is a useful predictive tool in irrigation scheduling as it, or a component, is associated with physiological responses to water deficit. Increasing atmospheric demand for water increases transpiration and decreases water potential for the same stomatal conductance. However, based on supply by the soil-plant-atmosphere-continuum, decreasing soil water potential should decrease stomatal conductance and thus transpiration but also decrease water potential. Su...

Capacity building in water demand management as a key component for attaining millennium development goals

Science.gov (United States)

Gumbo, Bekithemba; Forster, Laura; Arntzen, Jaap

Successful water demand management (WDM) implementation as a component of integrated water resource management (IWRM) can play a significant role in the alleviation of poverty through more efficient use of available water resources. The urban population in Southern African cities is characterised by so-called ‘water poor’ communities who typically expend a high percentage of their household income on poor quality water. Usually they have no access to an affordable alternative source. Although WDM as a component of IWRM is not a panacea for poverty, it can help alleviate poverty by facilitating water services management by municipal water supply agencies (MWSAs) in the region. WDM is a key strategy for achieving the millennium development goals (MDGs) and, as such, should be given due attention in the preparation of national IWRM and water efficiency plans. Various studies in the Southern African region have indicated that capacity building is necessary for nations to develop IWRM and water-use efficiency plans to meet the targets set out in the MDGs. WDM education and training of water professionals and end-users is particularly important in developing countries, which are resource and information-access poor. In response to these findings, The World Conservation Union (IUCN) and its consulting partners, the Training and Instructional Design Academy of South Africa (TIDASA), and Centre for Applied Research (CAR) designed, developed and presented a pilot WDM Guideline Training Module for MWSAs as part of Phase II of IUCN’s Southern Africa regional WDM project. Pilot training was conducted in July 2004 in Lusaka, Zambia for a group of 36 participants involved in municipal water supply from nine Southern African countries. This paper looks at the links between building the capacity of professionals, operational staff and other role-players in the municipal water supply chain to implement WDM as part of broader IWRM strategies, and the subsequent potential for

Project Politics, Priorities and Participation in Rural Water Schemes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Barbara van Koppen

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Governments, NGOs and financers invest considerable resources in rural domestic water supplies and irrigation development. However, elite capture and underuse, if not complete abandonment, are frequent. While the blame is often put on 'corrupt, lazy and indisciplined' communities, this article explores the question of how the public water sector itself contributes to this state of affairs. Four case studies, which are part of the research project Cooperation and Conflict in Local Water Governance, are examined: two domestic water supply projects (Mali, Vietnam; one participatory multiple use project (Zambia; and one large-scale irrigation project (Bolivia. It was found that accountability of water projects was upward and tended to lie in construction targets for single uses with already allocated funding. This rendered project implementers dependent upon the village elite for timely spending. Yet, the elite appeared hardly motivated to maintain communal schemes, unless they themselves benefited. The dependency of projects on the elite can be reduced by ensuring participatory and inclusive planning that meets the project’s conditions before budget allocation. Although such approaches are common outside the water sector, a barrier in the water sector is that central public funds are negotiated by each sector by profiling unique expertise and single livelihood goals, which trickle down as single use silos. The article concludes with reflections on plausible benefits of participatory multiple use services for equity and sustainability.

Discussions and projections about the future demand for nuclear power in Brazil

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oliveira, Fabio Branco Vaz de, E-mail: fabio@ipen.b [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Nuclear and Engineering Center; Imakuma, Kengo, E-mail: kimakuma@ipen.b [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Information Technology Development Dept.

2011-07-01

This paper aims mainly to discuss the current scenarios of power consumption, nuclear power and conventional and uranium resources and, based on that, present projections about the future demand for power generated through atomic fissions in Brazil, showing that there may be differences in estimates of future projections, depending on the indexes considered: global or domestic. The time horizon for the analysis was studied up to the maximum for the national population, for some of the world and Brazil's governmental data in terms of population growth, energy consumption and energy consumption per capita. To introduce the importance of the methodology adopted, data and some problems presented about the current world energy and Brazilian scenarios are discussed. Calculations show that the power consumption projections for Brazil, when using global indexes, are very high. According to our methodology, power consumption in Brazil is nearly 4.5 times below the estimates presented by the global indexes. The conclusion is that applying global indexes and their extension to domestic scenarios lead to errors of orders of magnitudes, due to the specific particularities of each country, and must be avoided if accurate projections about energy and nuclear scenarios must be considered. (author)

Discussions and projections about the future demand for nuclear power in Brazil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oliveira, Fabio Branco Vaz de; Imakuma, Kengo

2011-01-01

This paper aims mainly to discuss the current scenarios of power consumption, nuclear power and conventional and uranium resources and, based on that, present projections about the future demand for power generated through atomic fissions in Brazil, showing that there may be differences in estimates of future projections, depending on the indexes considered: global or domestic. The time horizon for the analysis was studied up to the maximum for the national population, for some of the world and Brazil's governmental data in terms of population growth, energy consumption and energy consumption per capita. To introduce the importance of the methodology adopted, data and some problems presented about the current world energy and Brazilian scenarios are discussed. Calculations show that the power consumption projections for Brazil, when using global indexes, are very high. According to our methodology, power consumption in Brazil is nearly 4.5 times below the estimates presented by the global indexes. The conclusion is that applying global indexes and their extension to domestic scenarios lead to errors of orders of magnitudes, due to the specific particularities of each country, and must be avoided if accurate projections about energy and nuclear scenarios must be considered. (author)

43 CFR 418.2 - How Project water may be used.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 43 Public Lands: Interior 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false How Project water may be used. 418.2..., DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR OPERATING CRITERIA AND PROCEDURES FOR THE NEWLANDS RECLAMATION PROJECT, NEVADA General Provisions § 418.2 How Project water may be used. Project water may be delivered only to serve...

Water stress, water salience, and the implications for water supply planning

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia, M. E.; Islam, S.

2017-12-01

Effectively addressing the water supply challenges posed by urbanization and climate change requires a holistic understanding of the water supply system, including the impact of human behavior on system dynamics. Decision makers have limits to available information and information processing capacity, and their attention is not equally distributed among risks. The salience of a given risk is higher when increased attention is directed to it and though perceived risk may increase, real risk does not change. Relevant to water supply planning is how and when water stress results in an increased salience of water risks. This work takes a socio-hydrological approach to develop a water supply planning model that includes water consumption as an endogenous variable, in the context of Las Vegas, NV. To understand the benefits and limitations of this approach, this model is compared to a traditional planning model that uses water consumption scenarios. Both models are applied to project system reliability and water stress under four streamflow and demographic scenarios, and to assess supply side responses to changing conditions. The endogenous demand model enables the identification of feedback between both supply and demand management decisions on future water consumption and system performance. This model, while specific to the Las Vegas case, demonstrates a prototypical modeling framework capable of examining water-supply demand interactions by incorporating water stress driven conservation.

Subsea innovative boosting technologies on deep water scenarios -- Impacts and demands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Caetano, E.F.; Mendonca, J.E.; Pagot, P.R.; Cotrim, M.L.; Camargo, R.M.T.; Assayag, M.I.

1995-01-01

This paper presents the importance of deep water scenario for Brazil, the PETROBRAS Deep and Ultra-Deep Water R and D Program (PROCAP-2000) and the candidate fields for the deployment of subsea innovative boosting technologies (ESPS -- electrical submersible pump in subsea wells, SSS -- subsea separation systems and SBMS -- subsea multiphase flow pumping system) as well as the problems associated with the flow assurance in such conditions. The impact of those innovative systems, their technological stage and remaining demands to make them available for deployment in offshore subsea areas, mainly in giant deepwater fields, are discussed and predicted

Predicting residential energy and water demand using publicly available data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoşgör, Enes; Fischbeck, Paul S.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • We built regression models using publicly available data as independent variables. • These models were used to predict monthly utility usage. • Such models can empower demand-side management program design, implementation and evaluation. • As well as planning for changes in energy and water demand. - Abstract: The overarching objective behind this work is to merge publicly available data with utility consumption histories and extract statistically significant insight on utility usage for a group of houses (n = 7022) in Gainesville, USA. This study investigates the statistical descriptive power of publicly available information for modeling utility usage. We first examine the deviations that arise from monthly utility usage reading dates as reading dates tend to shift and reading periods tend to vary across different months. Then we run regression models for individual months which in turn we compare to a yearly regression model which accounts for months as a dummy variable to understand whether a monthly model or a yearly model has a larger statistical power. It is shown that publicly available data can be used to model residential utility usage in the absence of highly private utility data. The obtained results are helpful for utilities for two reasons: (1) using the models to predict the monthly changes in demand; and (2) predicting utility usage can be translated into energy-use intensity as a first-cut metric for energy efficiency targeting in their service territory to meet their state demand reduction targets

Estimating irrigation water demand using an improved method and optimizing reservoir operation for water supply and hydropower generation: a case study of the Xinfengjiang reservoir in southern China

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Yiping; Chen, Ji

2013-01-01

The ever-increasing demand for water due to growth of population and socioeconomic development in the past several decades has posed a worldwide threat to water supply security and to the environmental health of rivers. This study aims to derive reservoir operating rules through establishing a multi-objective optimization model for the Xinfengjiang (XFJ) reservoir in the East River Basin in southern China to minimize water supply deficit and maximize hydropower generation. Additionally, to enhance the estimation of irrigation water demand from the downstream agricultural area of the XFJ reservoir, a conventional method for calculating crop water demand is improved using hydrological model simulation results. Although the optimal reservoir operating rules are derived for the XFJ reservoir with three priority scenarios (water supply only, hydropower generation only, and equal priority), the river environmental health is set as the basic demand no matter which scenario is adopted. The results show that the new rules derived under the three scenarios can improve the reservoir operation for both water supply and hydropower generation when comparing to the historical performance. Moreover, these alternative reservoir operating policies provide the flexibility for the reservoir authority to choose the most appropriate one. Although changing the current operating rules may influence its hydropower-oriented functions, the new rules can be significant to cope with the increasingly prominent water shortage and degradation in the aquatic environment. Overall, our results and methods (improved estimation of irrigation water demand and formulation of the reservoir optimization model) can be useful for local watershed managers and valuable for other researchers worldwide.

Predictive Uncertainty Estimation in Water Demand Forecasting Using the Model Conditional Processor

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amos O. Anele

2018-04-01

Full Text Available In a previous paper, a number of potential models for short-term water demand (STWD prediction have been analysed to find the ones with the best fit. The results obtained in Anele et al. (2017 showed that hybrid models may be considered as the accurate and appropriate forecasting models for STWD prediction. However, such best single valued forecast does not guarantee reliable and robust decisions, which can be properly obtained via model uncertainty processors (MUPs. MUPs provide an estimate of the full predictive densities and not only the single valued expected prediction. Amongst other MUPs, the purpose of this paper is to use the multi-variate version of the model conditional processor (MCP, proposed by Todini (2008, to demonstrate how the estimation of the predictive probability conditional to a number of relatively good predictive models may improve our knowledge, thus reducing the predictive uncertainty (PU when forecasting into the unknown future. Through the MCP approach, the probability distribution of the future water demand can be assessed depending on the forecast provided by one or more deterministic forecasting models. Based on an average weekly data of 168 h, the probability density of the future demand is built conditional on three models’ predictions, namely the autoregressive-moving average (ARMA, feed-forward back propagation neural network (FFBP-NN and hybrid model (i.e., combined forecast from ARMA and FFBP-NN. The results obtained show that MCP may be effectively used for real-time STWD prediction since it brings out the PU connected to its forecast, and such information could help water utilities estimate the risk connected to a decision.

Description of the global petroleum supply and demand outlook updated for the 1993 edition of the GRI baseline projection of US energy supply and demand, December 1992

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dreyfus, D.A.; Koklauner, A.B.

1992-12-01

Strategic planning of the research and development program carried out by Gas Research Institute (GRI) is supported by an annual GRI baseline projection of U.S. energy supply and demand. Because petroleum products compete in a wide variety of energy uses, oil prices serve as a market clearing force for the entire energy system. A significant portion of the U.S. petroleum supply is imported, and the price of crude oil to U.S. refiners is determined by the international oil trade. Any projection of the U.S. energy situation, therefore, requires the evaluation of the global oil market and the impact of oil price changes on the supply/demand balances of market participants. The 1992 edition of the projection completed in August 1991 assumed that in the aftermath of the war in the Middle East the fundamentals of oil trade would reassert their influence. This did indeed occur and with astonishing speed. In the face of this outlook, GRI has revised its 1993 oil price track downward

Demand as Frequency Controlled Reserve

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Xu, Zhao; Togeby, Mikael; Østergaard, Jacob

This report summaries the research outcomes of the project ‘Demand as Frequency Controlled Reserve (DFR)’, which has received the support from Energinet.dk’s PSO program, Grant no. 2005-2-6380. The objective of this project is to investigate the technology of using electricity demands for providing...

Evaporative demand and water requirements of the principal crops of the Guadalentin valley (SE Spain) in drought periods

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sanchez-Toribio, M. I.; Garcia-Marin, R.; Conesa-Garcia, C.; Lopez-Bermudez, F.

2010-07-01

The drought periods that affect the province of Murcia, especially the Guadalentin Valley, are aggravated by an increase in evaporative demand. The aim of the present study was to characterize the increased water demand of woody and herbaceous crops during drought periods in the Guadalentin Valley, an agricultural zone with an excellent climate for specialty crops, which is of great economic importance for Murcia. After defining the drought periods of the last three decades in time and space by means of the standard index of rainfall drought (IESP), several methods were used to determine the reference evapotranspiration (ETo): the Penman-Monteith model (ASCE and FAO models for grass), the Hargreaves method (ETo-ASCE for alfalfa), and ETo using the FAO Radiation method. Finally, the crop water requirements for each to crop type and area of cultivation were estimated using monthly crop coefficients (K{sub c}) and the mean monthly evaporative demand values were obtained by the best fitting method. The increase in the evaporative demand reflected the increased water deficits that occur in the drought years, both in summer and winter (1.23 hm{sup 3} yr{sup -}1). Drought periods are also responsible for reducing the areas dedicated to horticultural crops, because of their high water demands and the additional costs involved, resulting an aggravated socioeconomic position and increased unemployment. (Author) 25 refs.

Determination of Biochemical Oxygen Demand of Area Waters: A Bioassay Procedure for Environmental Monitoring

Science.gov (United States)

Riehl, Matthew

2012-01-01

A graphical method for determining the 5-day biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5) for a body of water is described. In this bioassay, students collect a sample of water from a designated site, transport it to the laboratory, and evaluate the amount of oxygen consumed by naturally occurring bacteria during a 5-day incubation period. An accuracy check,…

Integrating Economic Models with Biophysical Models in the Willamette Water 2100 Project

Science.gov (United States)

Jaeger, W. K.; Plantinga, A.

2013-12-01

This paper highlights the human system modeling components for Willamette Water 2100, a comprehensive, highly integrated study of hydrological, ecological, and human factors affecting water scarcity in the Willamette River Basin (WRB). The project is developing a spatiotemporal simulation model to predict future trajectories of water scarcity, and to evaluate mitigation policies. Economic models of land use and water use are the main human system models in WW2100. Water scarcity depends on both supply and demand for water, and varies greatly across time and space (Jaeger et al., 2013). Thus, the locations of human water use can have enormous influence on where and when water is used, and hence where water scarcity may arise. Modeling the locations of human uses of water (e.g., urban versus agricultural) as well as human values and choices, are the principal quantitative ways that social science can contribute to research of this kind. Our models are empirically-based models of human resource allocation. Each model reflects private behavior (choices by households, farms, firms), institutions (property rights, laws, markets, regulations), public infrastructure (dams, canals, highways), and also 'external drivers' that influence the local economy (migration, population growth, national markets and policies). This paper describes the main model components, emphasizing similarities between human and biophysical components of the overall project, and the model's linkages and feedbacks relevant to our predictions of changes in water scarcity between now and 2100. Results presented include new insights from individual model components as well as available results from the integrated system model. Issues include water scarcity and water quality (temperature) for out-of-stream and instream uses, the impact of urban expansion on water use and potential flood damage. Changes in timing and variability of spring discharge with climate change, as well as changes in human uses of

The Model of Lake Operation in Water Transfer Projects Based on the Theory of Water- right

Science.gov (United States)

Bi-peng, Yan; Chao, Liu; Fang-ping, Tang

the lake operation is a very important content in Water Transfer Projects. The previous studies have not any related to water-right and water- price previous. In this paper, water right is divided into three parts, one is initialization waterright, another is by investment, and the third is government's water- right re-distribution. The water-right distribution model is also build. After analyzing the cost in water transfer project, a model and computation method for the capacity price as well as quantity price is proposed. The model of lake operation in water transfer projects base on the theory of water- right is also build. The simulation regulation for the lake was carried out by using historical data and Genetic Algorithms. Water supply and impoundment control line of the lake was proposed. The result can be used by south to north water transfer projects.

The study of interrelationship between raw water quality parameters, chlorine demand and the formation of disinfection by-products

Science.gov (United States)

Abdullah, Md. Pauzi; Yee, Lim Fang; Ata, Sadia; Abdullah, Abass; Ishak, Basar; Abidin, Khairul Nidzham Zainal

Disinfection is the most crucial process in the treatment of drinking water supply and is the final barrier against bacteriological impurities in drinking water. Chlorine is the primary disinfectant used in the drinking water treatment process throughout Malaysia. However, the occurrence of various disinfection by-products such as trihalomethanes (THM) and haloacetic acids created a major issue on the potential health hazards which may pose adverse health effects in both human and animals. To simulate real water treatment conditions and to represent the conditions inherent in a tropical country, this study was performed at an urbanized water treatment plant with a daily production of about 549,000 m 3 of treated water. The purpose of this work is to examine the relationship between the water quality parameters in the raw water with chlorine demand and the formation of disinfection by-products. This study also investigated the possibility of the statistical model applications for the prediction of chlorine demand and the THM formation. Two models were developed to estimate the chlorine demand and the THM formation. For the statistical evaluation, correlation and simple linear regression analysis were conducted using SPSS. The results of Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for the estimation of goodness-of-fit of the dependent variables of the models to the normal distribution showed that all the dependent variables followed the normal distribution at significance level of 0.05. Good linear correlations were observed between the independent parameters and formation of THM and the chlorine demand. This study also revealed that ammonia and the specific ultraviolet absorbent (SUVA) were the function of chlorine consumption in the treatment process. Chlorine dosage and SUVA increase the yield of THM. Chlorine demand and THM formation was moderately sensitive, but significant to the pH. The level of significance ( α) for the statistical tests and the inclusion of a variable in the

Agricultural Water Use under Global Change

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, T.; Ringler, C.; Rosegrant, M. W.

2008-12-01

Irrigation is by far the single largest user of water in the world and is projected to remain so in the foreseeable future. Globally, irrigated agricultural land comprises less than twenty percent of total cropland but produces about forty percent of the world's food. Increasing world population will require more food and this will lead to more irrigation in many areas. As demands increase and water becomes an increasingly scarce resource, agriculture's competition for water with other economic sectors will be intensified. This water picture is expected to become even more complex as climate change will impose substantial impacts on water availability and demand, in particular for agriculture. To better understand future water demand and supply under global change, including changes in demographic, economic and technological dimensions, the water simulation module of IMPACT, a global water and food projection model developed at the International Food Policy Research Institute, is used to analyze future water demand and supply in agricultural and several non-agricultural sectors using downscaled GCM scenarios, based on water availability simulation done with a recently developed semi-distributed global hydrological model. Risk analysis is conducted to identify countries and regions where future water supply reliability for irrigation is low, and food security may be threatened in the presence of climate change. Gridded shadow values of irrigation water are derived for global cropland based on an optimization framework, and they are used to illustrate potential irrigation development by incorporating gridded water availability and existing global map of irrigation areas.

Sectoral contributions to surface water stress in the coterminous United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Averyt, K; Meldrum, J; Caldwell, P; Sun, G; McNulty, S; Huber-Lee, A; Madden, N

2013-01-01

Here, we assess current stress in the freshwater system based on the best available data in order to understand possible risks and vulnerabilities to regional water resources and the sectors dependent on freshwater. We present watershed-scale measures of surface water supply stress for the coterminous United States (US) using the water supply stress index (WaSSI) model which considers regional trends in both water supply and demand. A snapshot of contemporary annual water demand is compared against different water supply regimes, including current average supplies, current extreme-year supplies, and projected future average surface water flows under a changing climate. In addition, we investigate the contributions of different water demand sectors to current water stress. On average, water supplies are stressed, meaning that demands for water outstrip natural supplies in over 9% of the 2103 watersheds examined. These watersheds rely on reservoir storage, conveyance systems, and groundwater to meet current water demands. Overall, agriculture is the major demand-side driver of water stress in the US, whereas municipal stress is isolated to southern California. Water stress introduced by cooling water demands for power plants is punctuated across the US, indicating that a single power plant has the potential to stress water supplies at the watershed scale. On the supply side, watersheds in the western US are particularly sensitive to low flow events and projected long-term shifts in flow driven by climate change. The WaSSI results imply that not only are water resources in the southwest in particular at risk, but that there are also potential vulnerabilities to specific sectors, even in the ‘water-rich’ southeast. (letter)

Assessing efficiency and economic viability of rainwater harvesting systems for meeting non-potable water demands in four climatic zones of China

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, S.; Jing, X.

2017-12-01

Rainwater harvesting is now increasingly used to manage urban flood and alleviate water scarcity crisis. In this study, a computational tool based on water balance equation is developed to assess stormwater capture and water saving efficiency and economic viability of rainwater harvesting systems (RHS) in eight cities across four climatic zones of China. It requires daily rainfall, contributing area, runoff losses, first flush volume, storage capacity, daily water demand and economic parameters as inputs. Three non-potable water demand scenarios (i.e., toilet flushing, lawn irrigation, and combination of them) are considered. The water demand for lawn irrigation is estimated using the Cropwat 8.0 and Climwat 2.0. Results indicate that higher water saving efficiency and water supply time reliability can be achieved for RHS with larger storage capacities, for lower water demand scenarios and located in more humid regions, while higher stormwater capture efficiency is associated with larger storage capacity, higher water demand scenarios and less rainfall. For instance, a 40 m3 RHS in Shanghai (humid climate) for lawn irrigation can capture 17% of stormwater, while its water saving efficiency and time reliability can reach 96 % and 98%, respectively. The water saving efficiency and time reliability of a 20 m3 RHS in Xining (semi-arid climate) for toilet flushing are 19% and 16%, respectively, but it can capture 63% of stormwater. With the current values of economic parameters, economic viability of RHS can be achieved in humid and semi-humid regions for reasonably designed RHS; however, it is not financially viable to install RHS in arid regions as the benefit-cost ratio is much smaller than 1.0.

Direction of Heavy Water Projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1984-07-01

Summary of the activities performed by the Heavy Water Projects Direction of the Argentine Atomic Energy Commission from 1950 to 1983. It covers: historical data; industrial plant (based on ammonia-hydrogen isotopic exchange); experimental plant (utilizing hydrogen sulfides-water process); Module-80 plant (2-3 tons per year experimental plant with national technology) and other related tasks on research and development (E.A.C.) [es

Water supply and demand management in the Galápagos : A case study of Santa Cruz Island

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Reyes Perez, M.F.

2017-01-01

Water resources in tourist islands have been severely threatened, especially in the Galápagos Islands, where the increased local population has generated attractive income from the tourist services. In addition, the data regarding water supply and demand are scarce. This study investigates water

Growing importance of atmospheric water demands on the hydrologcial condition of East Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Park, C. E.; Ho, C. H.; Jeong, S. J.; Park, H.

2015-12-01

As global temperature increases, enhanced exchange of fresh water between the surface and atmosphere expected to make dry regions drier and wet regions wetter. This concept is well fitted for the ocean, but oversimplified for the land. How the climate change causes the complex patterns of the continental dryness change is one of challenging questions. Here we investigate the observed dryness changes of the land surface by examining the quantitative influence of several climate parameters on the background aridity changes over East Asia, containing various climate regimes from cold-arid to warm-humid regions, using observations of 189 stations covering the period from 1961 to 2010. Overall mean aridity trend is changed from negative to positive around early 1990s. The turning of dryness trend is largely influenced by sharp increase in atmospheric water demands, regardless of the background climate. The warming induced increase in water demands is larger in warm-humid regions than in cold-arid region due to the Clausius-Clapeyron relation between air temperature and saturation vapor pressure. The results show the drying of anthropogenic warming already begins and influences on the patterns of dryness change over the land surface.

Projection pursuit water quality evaluation model based on chicken swam algorithm

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Zhe

2018-03-01

In view of the uncertainty and ambiguity of each index in water quality evaluation, in order to solve the incompatibility of evaluation results of individual water quality indexes, a projection pursuit model based on chicken swam algorithm is proposed. The projection index function which can reflect the water quality condition is constructed, the chicken group algorithm (CSA) is introduced, the projection index function is optimized, the best projection direction of the projection index function is sought, and the best projection value is obtained to realize the water quality evaluation. The comparison between this method and other methods shows that it is reasonable and feasible to provide decision-making basis for water pollution control in the basin.

Global assessment of water policy vulnerability under uncertainty in water scarcity projections

Science.gov (United States)

Greve, Peter; Kahil, Taher; Satoh, Yusuke; Burek, Peter; Fischer, Günther; Tramberend, Sylvia; Byers, Edward; Flörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Langan, Simon; Wada, Yoshihide

2017-04-01

Water scarcity is a critical environmental issue worldwide, which has been driven by the significant increase in water extractions during the last century. In the coming decades, climate change is projected to further exacerbate water scarcity conditions in many regions around the world. At present, one important question for policy debate is the identification of water policy interventions that could address the mounting water scarcity problems. Main interventions include investing in water storage infrastructures, water transfer canals, efficient irrigation systems, and desalination plants, among many others. This type of interventions involve long-term planning, long-lived investments and some irreversibility in choices which can shape development of countries for decades. Making decisions on these water infrastructures requires anticipating the long term environmental conditions, needs and constraints under which they will function. This brings large uncertainty in the decision-making process, for instance from demographic or economic projections. But today, climate change is bringing another layer of uncertainty that make decisions even more complex. In this study, we assess in a probabilistic approach the uncertainty in global water scarcity projections following different socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and climate scenarios (RCPs) within the first half of the 21st century. By utilizing an ensemble of 45 future water scarcity projections based on (i) three state-of-the-art global hydrological models (PCR-GLOBWB, H08, and WaterGAP), (ii) five climate models, and (iii) three water scenarios, we have assessed changes in water scarcity and the associated uncertainty distribution worldwide. The water scenarios used here are developed by IIASA's Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) Initiative. The main objective of this study is to improve the contribution of hydro-climatic information to effective policymaking by identifying spatial and temporal policy

All projects related to | Page 423 | IDRC - International Development ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

2008-10-02

Using Demand Side Management to Adapt to Water Scarcity and Climate Change in the Saiss Basin (Morocco). Project. The Saiss is a sub-basin of the Sebou basin in Northern Morocco. Start Date: October 2, 2008. End Date: February 23, 2012. Topic: WATER RESOURCES, WATER MANAGEMENT, IRRIGATION ...

Working group report on water resources, supply and demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marta, T.J.

1990-01-01

A summary is presented of the issues discussed, and the conclusions and recommendations of a working group on water resources, supply and demand. The issues were grouped into the categories of detecting climatic change and water impacts, simulating potential impacts, and responding to potential impacts. The workshop groups achieved consensus on the following points: the physics of global warming and climatic change have been satifactorily proven; there appears to be some evidence of climatic change and a signal could soon be detected; policy decisions and strategic plans for climatic change and its potential impacts are needed immediately; and targets and priorities for decison making should be identified and addressed immediately. Three top-priority issues are the identification of indicators for the detection of climatic change impacts on hydrology, determining response to climate-related change, and evaluation of design criteria. Better information on regional climate and hydrology under conditions of global warming is needed before design criteria could be altered

Inclusion of climatic and touristic factors in the analysis and modelling of the municipal water demand in a Mediterranean region

Science.gov (United States)

Toth, Elena; Bragalli, Cristiana; Neri, Mattia

2017-04-01

In Mediterranean regions, inherently affected by water scarcity conditions, the gap between water availability and demand may further increase in the near future due to both climatic and anthropogenic drivers. In particular, the high degree of urbanization and the concentration of population and activities in coastal areas is often severely impacting the water availability also for the residential sector. It is therefore crucial analysing the importance of both climatic and touristic factors as drivers for the water demand in such areas, to better understand and model the expected consumption in order to improve the water management policies and practices. The study presents an analysis referred to a large number of municipalities, covering almost the whole Romagna region, in Northern Italy, representing one of the most economically developed areas in Europe and characterized by an extremely profitable tourist industry, especially in the coastal cities. For this region it is therefore extremely important to assess the significance of the drivers that may influence the demand in the different periods of the year, that is climatic factors (rainfall depths and occurrence, temperature averages and extremes), but also the presence of tourists, in both official tourist accommodation structures and in holidays homes (and the latter are very difficult to estimate). Analyses on the Italian water industry at seasonal or monthly time scale has been so far, extremely limited in the literature by the scarce availability of data on the water demands, that are made public only as annual volumes. All the study municipalities are supplied by the same water company, who provided monthly consumption volumes data at the main inlet points of the entire distribution network for a period of 7 years (2009-2015). For the same period, precipitation and temperature data have been collected and summarised in indexes representing monthly averages, days of occurrence and over threshold values

Water Demand Analysis for Tree Crops in Spanish Mediterranean Farms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria Angeles Fernández-Zamudio

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Olive, vine and almond in rainfed farming systems are the most traditional crops in the large inland extensions of the Spanish Mediterranean. Their economic contributions enable farming activities to be maintained meaning that the villages remain inhabited. In the rainfed-farms in the Mediterranean regions it is possible to find only a certain proportion of the farms with some type of irrigation system. Given the water scarcity, the aim of this work is to determine the impact that an irrigationwater pricing policy would have on these regions, as outlined in the European Water Framework Directive. After analysing the direct effect water price would have on the net margin in these crops, demand functions have been obtained, applying the Multiattribute Utility Theory. The calculations, with reference to a farm that is representative of these regions, have been applied to two model scenarios, each with a different level of mechanization. Results show the impact on economic, social and environmental aspects of the pricing policy under the current water allotment. The work is completed by analysing the different contexts of irrigation-water availability on the farm. The study leads to the conclusion that increasing mechanization may be the most straightforward strategy to ensure the survival of these farms in the short to medium term if the current trend of increasing irrigation-water prices is consolidated.

Getting into hot water Problematizing hot water service demand: The case of Old Cairo

Science.gov (United States)

Culhane, Thomas Henry

This dissertation analyzes hot water demand and service infrastructure in two neighboring but culturally distinct communities of the urban poor in the inner-city area of central Cairo. The communities are the Historic Islamic Cairo neighborhood of Darb Al Ahmar at the foot of Al-Azhar park, and the Zurayib neighborhood of Manshiyat Nasser where the Coptic Zabaleen Recyclers live. The study focuses on the demand side of the hot water issue and involves consideration of built-environment infrastructures providing piped water, electricity, bottled gas, sewage, and the support structures (wiring and plumbing) for consumer durables (appliances such as hot water heaters, stoves, refrigerators, air conditioners) as well as water pumps and water storage tanks. The study asks the questions "How do poor communities in Cairo value hot water" and "How do cost, infrastructure and cultural preferences affect which attributes of hot water service are most highly preferred?". To answer these questions household surveys based primarily on the World Bank LSMS modules were administered by professional survey teams from Darb Al Ahmar's Aga Khan Trust for Culture and the Zabaleen's local NGO "Spirit of Youth" in their adjacent conununities in and surrounding historic Cairo. In total 463 valid surveys were collected, (231 from Darb Al Ahmar, 232 from the Zabaleen). The surveys included a contingent valuation question to explore Willingness to Pay for improved hot water service; the surveys queried household assets as proxies for income. The dissertation's findings reveal that one quarter of the residents of Darb Al Ahmar and two-thirds of the residents of Manshiyet Nasser's Zabaleen lack conventional water heating service. Instead they employ various types of stoves and self-built contraptions to heat water, usually incurring considerable risk and opportunity costs. However the thesis explores the notion that this is rational "satisficing" behavior; despite the shortcomings of such self

Uncertain socioeconomic projections used in travel demand and emissions models: could plausible errors result in air quality nonconformity?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rodier, C.J.; Johnston, R.A.

2002-01-01

A sensitivity analysis of plausible errors in population, employment, fuel price, and income projections is conducted using the travel demand and emissions models of the Sacramento, CA, USA, region for their transportation plan. The results of the analyses indicate that plausible error ranges for household income and fuel prices are not a significant source of uncertainty with respect to the region's travel demand and emissions projections. However, plausible errors in population and employment projections (within approximately one standard deviation) may result in the region's transportation plan not meeting the conformity test for nitrogens of oxides (NO x ) in the year 2005 (i.e., an approximately 16% probability). This outcome is also possible in the year 2015 but less likely (within approximately two standard deviations or a 2.5% probability). Errors in socioeconomic projections are only one of many sources of error in travel demand and emissions models. These results have several policy implications. First, regions like Sacramento that meet their conformity tests by a very small margin should rethink new highway investment and consider contingency transportation plans that incorporate more aggressive emissions reduction policies. Second, regional transportation planning agencies should conduct sensitivity analyses as part of their conformity analysis to make explicit significant uncertainties in the methods and to identify the probability of their transportation plan not conforming. Third, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) should clarify the interpretation of ''demonstrate'' conformity of transportation plans; that is, specify the level of certainty that it considers a sufficient demonstration of conformity. (author)

Is the available cropland and water enough for food demand? A global perspective of the Land-Water-Food nexus

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ibarrola-Rivas, M. J.; Granados-Ramirez, R.; Nonhebel, S.

2017-01-01

Land and water are essential local resources for food production but are limited. The main drivers of increasing food demand are population growth and dietary changes, which depend on the socioeconomic situation of the population. These two factors affect the availability of local resources:

Electricity demand forecasting techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gnanalingam, K.

1994-01-01

Electricity demand forecasting plays an important role in power generation. The two areas of data that have to be forecasted in a power system are peak demand which determines the capacity (MW) of the plant required and annual energy demand (GWH). Methods used in electricity demand forecasting include time trend analysis and econometric methods. In forecasting, identification of manpower demand, identification of key planning factors, decision on planning horizon, differentiation between prediction and projection (i.e. development of different scenarios) and choosing from different forecasting techniques are important