WorldWideScience

Sample records for projected temperature trends

  1. Updating temperature and salinity mean values and trends in the Western Mediterranean: The RADMED project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vargas-Yáñez, M.; García-Martínez, M. C.; Moya, F.; Balbín, R.; López-Jurado, J. L.; Serra, M.; Zunino, P.; Pascual, J.; Salat, J.

    2017-09-01

    The RADMED project is devoted to the implementation and maintenance of a multidisciplinary monitoring system around the Spanish Mediterranean waters. This observing system is based on periodic multidisciplinary cruises covering the coastal waters, continental shelf and slope waters and some deep stations (>2000 m) from the Westernmost Alboran Sea to Barcelona in the Catalan Sea, including the Balearic Islands. This project was launched in 2007 unifying and extending some previous monitoring projects which had a more reduced geographical coverage. Some of the time series currently available extend from 1992, while the more recent ones were initiated in 2007. The present work updates the available time series up to 2015 (included) and shows the capability of these time series for two main purposes: the calculation of mean values for the properties of main water masses around the Spanish Mediterranean, and the study of the interannual and decadal variability of such properties. The data set provided by the RADMED project has been merged with historical data from the MEDAR/MEDATLAS data base for the calculation of temperature and salinity trends from 1900 to 2015. The analysis of these time series shows that the intermediate and deep layers of the Western Mediterranean have increased their temperature and salinity with an acceleration of the warming and salting trends from 1943. Trends for the heat absorbed by the water column for the 1943-2015 period, range between 0.2 and 0.6 W/m2 depending on the used methodology. The temperature and salinity trends for the same period and for the intermediate layer are 0.002 °C/yr and 0.001 yr-1 respectively. Deep layers warmed and increased their salinity at a rate of 0.004 °C/yr and 0.001 yr-1.

  2. Global crop exposure to critical high temperatures in the reproductive period: historical trends and future projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gourdji, Sharon M; Sibley, Adam M; Lobell, David B

    2013-01-01

    Long-term warming trends across the globe have shifted the distribution of temperature variability, such that what was once classified as extreme heat relative to local mean conditions has become more common. This is also true for agricultural regions, where exposure to extreme heat, particularly during key growth phases such as the reproductive period, can severely damage crop production in ways that are not captured by most crop models. Here, we analyze exposure of crops to physiologically critical temperatures in the reproductive stage (T crit ), across the global harvested areas of maize, rice, soybean and wheat. Trends for the 1980–2011 period show a relatively weak correspondence (r = 0.19) between mean growing season temperature and T crit exposure trends, emphasizing the importance of separate analyses for T crit . Increasing T crit exposure in the past few decades is apparent for wheat in Central and South Asia and South America, and for maize in many diverse locations across the globe. Maize had the highest percentage (15%) of global harvested area exposed to at least five reproductive days over T crit in the 2000s, although this value is somewhat sensitive to the exact temperature used for the threshold. While there was relatively little sustained exposure to reproductive days over T crit for the other crops in the past few decades, all show increases with future warming. Using projections from climate models we estimate that by the 2030s, 31, 16, and 11% respectively of maize, rice, and wheat global harvested area will be exposed to at least five reproductive days over T crit in a typical year, with soybean much less affected. Both maize and rice exhibit non-linear increases with time, with total area exposed for rice projected to grow from 8% in the 2000s to 27% by the 2050s, and maize from 15 to 44% over the same period. While faster development should lead to earlier flowering, which would reduce reproductive extreme heat exposure for wheat on a

  3. Historical and projected trends in temperature and precipitation extremes in Australia in observations and CMIP5

    OpenAIRE

    Alexander, Lisa V.; Arblaster, Julie M.

    2017-01-01

    This study expands previous work on climate extremes in Australia by investigating the simulation of a large number of extremes indices in the CMIP5 multi-model dataset and comparing them to multiple observational datasets over a century of observed data using consistent methods. We calculate 24 indices representing extremes of temperature and precipitation from 1911 to 2010 over Australia and show that there have been significant observed trends in temperature extremes associated with warmin...

  4. Trend patterns in global sea surface temperature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barbosa, S.M.; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

    2009-01-01

    Isolating long-term trend in sea surface temperature (SST) from El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) variability is fundamental for climate studies. In the present study, trend-empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, a robust space-time method for extracting trend patterns, is applied to iso...

  5. CONTEMPORARY TRENDS IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Argirova

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The modern information society in ever increasing business projects and time limits to achieve the objectives at minimum cost leads to a search for ways to manage them. Today, more and more managers use IT tools for project management, and the term itself is associated with software solutions for the optimization and management of projects in different fields of human activity. The paper examines the main characteristics of project management by means of information technology. Key tasks and processes in the project implementation and management are discussed.

  6. Temperature trends with reduced impact of ocean air temperature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lansner, Frank; Pedersen, Jens Olaf Pepke

    Temperature data 1900-2010 from meteorological stations across the world have been analysed and it has been found that all areas generally have two different valid temperature trends. Coastal stations and hill stations facing dominant ocean winds are normally more warm-trended than the valley sta...

  7. Temperature trends with reduced impact of ocean air temperature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lansner, Frank; Pedersen, Jens Olaf Pepke

    2018-01-01

    Temperature data 1900–2010 from meteorological stations across the world have been analyzed and it has been found that all land areas generally have two different valid temperature trends. Coastal stations and hill stations facing ocean winds are normally more warm-trended than the valley station...

  8. D and D projects trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gay, Arnaud

    2012-01-01

    This series of slides presents: 1 - the Various types of needs and types of operations in any D and D project, 2 - the strong variety of nuclear units to dismantle, 3 - the D and D dependence on nuclear operators' strategy (Immediate/Deferred dismantling), 4 - the demand for D and D services with respect to the ageing of the nuclear fleet, 5 - the impacts to come on the D and D environment due to the Fukushima accident, 6 - the geographical dependence of D and D demands, 7 - the different D and D choices from nuclear operators in the supply chain management, 8 - the key levers in a D and D project performance, 9 - Some key competencies in D and D, 10 - Risk management for both clients and suppliers in a D and D project, 11 - AREVA involvement in Fukushima project as a key demonstration of a critical D and D project management

  9. Integrated Project Delivery (IPD Research Trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kahvandi, Z.

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Integrated Project Delivery (IPD is introduced as a vibrant approach to enhance project implementation, having particular position in recent studies among construction researchers. This study analyzes the research trends on the field of IPD to provide an appropriate vision for future researchers in this specialized field. While so far no comprehensive research has been done in this field, this study provides a comprehensive review of existing studies through in-depth literature review method. This research evaluates studies conducted in the field of IPD, which is a basis for future researchers to improve conditions of IPD implementation in different countries. For that this study Using library studies, the trend of researches conducted on various concepts and domains during various years, has been investigated. Future studies can simply use the outputs of this research to shape their research flow on establishing continuing progress of IPD. The data obtained from descriptive analyses are illustrated quantitatively, followed by comprehensive analyses and discussion of the results. Moreover, this study concluded that during recent years, the trend of studies conducted about IPD has increased, particularly articles examined challenges. In the next step, more studies have been performed in the field of construction. Those articles are preferred that have evaluated principles, challenges, and solutions for resolving barriers. Proper IPD implementation facilitates enhanced share of information and early identification of stakeholders through a proper timing as vital keys to realize objectives of the construction projects, reduce risks, and increase the chance of project success.

  10. Estimating trends in the global mean temperature record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poppick, Andrew; Moyer, Elisabeth J.; Stein, Michael L.

    2017-06-01

    Given uncertainties in physical theory and numerical climate simulations, the historical temperature record is often used as a source of empirical information about climate change. Many historical trend analyses appear to de-emphasize physical and statistical assumptions: examples include regression models that treat time rather than radiative forcing as the relevant covariate, and time series methods that account for internal variability in nonparametric rather than parametric ways. However, given a limited data record and the presence of internal variability, estimating radiatively forced temperature trends in the historical record necessarily requires some assumptions. Ostensibly empirical methods can also involve an inherent conflict in assumptions: they require data records that are short enough for naive trend models to be applicable, but long enough for long-timescale internal variability to be accounted for. In the context of global mean temperatures, empirical methods that appear to de-emphasize assumptions can therefore produce misleading inferences, because the trend over the twentieth century is complex and the scale of temporal correlation is long relative to the length of the data record. We illustrate here how a simple but physically motivated trend model can provide better-fitting and more broadly applicable trend estimates and can allow for a wider array of questions to be addressed. In particular, the model allows one to distinguish, within a single statistical framework, between uncertainties in the shorter-term vs. longer-term response to radiative forcing, with implications not only on historical trends but also on uncertainties in future projections. We also investigate the consequence on inferred uncertainties of the choice of a statistical description of internal variability. While nonparametric methods may seem to avoid making explicit assumptions, we demonstrate how even misspecified parametric statistical methods, if attuned to the

  11. Projection display technology and product trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahn, Frederic J.

    1999-05-01

    Major technology and market trends that could generate a 20 billion dollar electronic projector market by 2010 are reviewed in the perspective of recent product introductions. A log linear analysis shows that the light outputs of benchmark transportable data video projectors have increased at a rate of almost 90 percent per year since 1993. The list prices of these same projectors have decreased at a rate of over 40 percent per year. The tradeoffs of light output vs. resolution and weight are illustrated. Recent trends in projector efficacy vs. year are discussed. Lumen output per dollar of list price is shown to be a useful market metric. Continued technical advances and innovations including higher throughput light valve technologies with integrated drivers, brighter light source, field sequential color, integrated- and micro-optical components, and aerospace materials are likely to sustain these trends. The new technologies will enable projection displays for entertainment and computer applications with unprecedented levels of performance, compactness, and cost-effectiveness.

  12. Alberta air emissions : trends and projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-06-01

    This paper provided a summary of air emissions trends and projections for Alberta. Predicted regional distribution trends and industry sector emissions were presented. Historical and projected emissions included sulfur oxides (SO x ) nitrogen oxide (NO x ), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and ammonia (NH 3 ). Results of the study indicated that carbon monoxide (CO) emissions were decreasing, while VOCs, NO x , SO x , PM 2.5 and NH 3 levels were increasing. Approximately 9 per cent of ammonia emissions were from point sources, while the majority of PM 2.5 emissions were attributed to unpaved roads and construction operations. Agricultural animal operations accounted for most of the VOC source emissions in the region. Increased development of the oil sands industry is contributing to increases in VOC emissions. Increases in NH 3 were attributed to growth in the agricultural sector and the increasing use of confined feeding operations in the region. Results of the study indicated that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Alberta will keep increasing as a result of Alberta's growing economy. It was concluded that emissions from other industrial sectors are also expected to increase. In 2005, Alberta's total GHG emissions were 233 megatonnes of CO 2 equivalent, of which 168 megatonnes were attributed to industry. Results were presented in both graph and tabular formats. 3 tabs., 25 figs

  13. Canadian snow and sea ice: historical trends and projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mudryk, Lawrence R.; Derksen, Chris; Howell, Stephen; Laliberté, Fred; Thackeray, Chad; Sospedra-Alfonso, Reinel; Vionnet, Vincent; Kushner, Paul J.; Brown, Ross

    2018-04-01

    The Canadian Sea Ice and Snow Evolution (CanSISE) Network is a climate research network focused on developing and applying state of the art observational data to advance dynamical prediction, projections, and understanding of seasonal snow cover and sea ice in Canada and the circumpolar Arctic. Here, we present an assessment from the CanSISE Network on trends in the historical record of snow cover (fraction, water equivalent) and sea ice (area, concentration, type, and thickness) across Canada. We also assess projected changes in snow cover and sea ice likely to occur by mid-century, as simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) suite of Earth system models. The historical datasets show that the fraction of Canadian land and marine areas covered by snow and ice is decreasing over time, with seasonal and regional variability in the trends consistent with regional differences in surface temperature trends. In particular, summer sea ice cover has decreased significantly across nearly all Canadian marine regions, and the rate of multi-year ice loss in the Beaufort Sea and Canadian Arctic Archipelago has nearly doubled over the last 8 years. The multi-model consensus over the 2020-2050 period shows reductions in fall and spring snow cover fraction and sea ice concentration of 5-10 % per decade (or 15-30 % in total), with similar reductions in winter sea ice concentration in both Hudson Bay and eastern Canadian waters. Peak pre-melt terrestrial snow water equivalent reductions of up to 10 % per decade (30 % in total) are projected across southern Canada.

  14. Population and trends in the global mean temperature

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tol, Richard S.J.

    2017-01-01

    The Fisher ideal index, developed to measure price inflation, is applied to define a population-weighted temperature trend. This method has the advantages that the trend is representative for the population distribution throughout the sample but without conflating the trend in the population

  15. Sea surface temperature trends in the coastal ocean

    OpenAIRE

    Amos, C.L.; Al-Rashidi, Thamer B.; Rakha, Karim; El-Gamily, Hamdy; Nicholls, R.J.

    2013-01-01

    Sea surface temperature (SST) trends in the coastal zone are shown to be increasing at rates that exceed the global trends by up to an order of magnitude. This paper compiles some of the evidence of the trends published in the literature. The evidence suggests that urbanization in the coastal hinterland is having a direct effect on SST through increased temperatures of river and lake waters, as well as through heated run-off and thermal effluent discharges from coastal infrastructure. These l...

  16. Preliminary engineering cost trends for highway projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-21

    Preliminary engineering (PE) for a highway project encompasses two efforts: planning to minimize the physical, social, and human environmental impacts of projects and engineering design to deliver the best alternative. PE efforts begin years in advan...

  17. Assessing trends in observed and modelled climate extremes over Australia in relation to future projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alexander, Lisa

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Nine global coupled climate models were assessed for their ability to reproduce observed trends in a set of indices representing temperature and precipitation extremes over Australia. Observed trends for 1957-1999 were compared with individual and multi-modelled trends calculated over the same period. When averaged across Australia the magnitude of trends and interannual variability of temperature extremes were well simulated by most models, particularly for the warm nights index. Except for consecutive dry days, the majority of models also reproduced the correct sign of trend for precipitation extremes. A bootstrapping technique was used to show that most models produce plausible trends when averaged over Australia, although only heavy precipitation days simulated from the multi-model ensemble showed significant skill at reproducing the observed spatial pattern of trends. Two of the models with output from different forcings showed that only with anthropogenic forcing included could the models capture the observed areally averaged trend for some of the temperature indices, but the forcing made little difference to the models' ability to reproduce the spatial pattern of trends over Australia. Future projected changes in extremes using three emissions scenarios were also analysed. Australia shows a shift towards significant warming of temperature extremes with much longer dry spells interspersed with periods of increased extreme precipitation irrespective of the scenario used. More work is required to determine whether regional projected changes over Australia are robust

  18. Temperature and ice layer trends in the summer middle atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lübken, F.-J.; Berger, U.

    2012-04-01

    We present results from our LIMA model (Leibniz Institute Middle Atmosphere Model) which nicely reproduces mean conditions of the summer mesopause region and also mean characteristics of ice layers known as noctilucent clouds. LIMA nudges to ECMWF data in the troposphere and lower stratosphere which influences the background conditions in the mesosphere. We study temperature trends in the mesosphere at middle and polar latitudes and compared with temperature trends from satellites, lidar, and phase height observations. For the first time large observed temperature trends in the summer mesosphere can be reproduced and explained by a model. As will be shown, stratospheric ozone has a major impact on temperature trends in the summer mesosphere. The temperature trend is not uniform in time: it is moderate from 1961 (the beginning of our record) until the beginning of the 1980s. Thereafter, temperatures decrease much stronger until the mid 1990s. Thereafter, temperatures are nearly constant or even increase with time. As will be shown, trends in ozone and carbon dioxide explain most of this behavior. Ice layers in the summer mesosphere are very sensitive to background conditions and are therefore considered to be appropriate tracers for long term variations in the middle atmosphere. We use LIMA background conditions to determine ice layer characteristics in the mesopause region. We compare our results with measurements, for example with albedos from the SBUV satellites, and show that we can nicely reproduce observed trends. It turns out that temperature trends are positive (negative) in the upper (lower) part of the ice layer regime. This complicates an interpretation of NLC long term variations in terms of temperature trends.

  19. Stratospheric Temperature Trends Observed by TIMED/SABER

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xian, T.; Tan, R.

    2017-12-01

    Trends in the stratospheric temperature are studied based on the temperature profile observation from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER). The spatially trends are evaluated in different time scales ranging from decadal to monthly resolved. The results indicate a signature of BDC acceleration. There are strong warming trends (up to 9 K/decade) in the middle to upper stratosphere in the high latitude spring, summer, and autumn seasons, accompanied by strong cooling trends in the lower stratosphere. Besides, strong warming trends occurs through the whole stratosphere over the Southern Hemisphere, which confirms Antarctic ozone layer healing since 2000. In addition, the results demonstrate a significant warming trends in the middle of tropical stratosphere, which becomes strongest during June-July-August.

  20. Projection display industry market and technology trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castellano, Joseph A.; Mentley, David E.

    1995-04-01

    The projection display industry is diverse, embracing a variety of technologies and applications. In recent years, there has been a high level of interest in projection displays, particularly those using LCD panels or light valves because of the difficulty in making large screen, direct view displays. Many developers feel that projection displays will be the wave of the future for large screen HDTV (high-definition television), penetrating the huge existing market for direct view CRT-based televisions. Projection displays can have the images projected onto a screen either from the rear or the front; the main characteristic is their ability to be viewed by more than one person. In addition to large screen home television receivers, there are numerous other uses for projection displays including conference room presentations, video conferences, closed circuit programming, computer-aided design, and military command/control. For any given application, the user can usually choose from several alternative technologies. These include CRT front or rear projectors, LCD front or rear projectors, LCD overhead projector plate monitors, various liquid or solid-state light valve projectors, or laser-addressed systems. The overall worldwide market for projection information displays of all types and for all applications, including home television, will top DOL4.6 billion in 1995 and DOL6.45 billion in 2001.

  1. Estimation of river and stream temperature trends under haphazard sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, Brian R.; Lyubchich, Vyacheslav; Gel, Yulia R.; Rogala, James T.; Robertson, Dale M.; Wei, Xiaoqiao

    2015-01-01

    Long-term temporal trends in water temperature in rivers and streams are typically estimated under the assumption of evenly-spaced space-time measurements. However, sampling times and dates associated with historical water temperature datasets and some sampling designs may be haphazard. As a result, trends in temperature may be confounded with trends in time or space of sampling which, in turn, may yield biased trend estimators and thus unreliable conclusions. We address this concern using multilevel (hierarchical) linear models, where time effects are allowed to vary randomly by day and date effects by year. We evaluate the proposed approach by Monte Carlo simulations with imbalance, sparse data and confounding by trend in time and date of sampling. Simulation results indicate unbiased trend estimators while results from a case study of temperature data from the Illinois River, USA conform to river thermal assumptions. We also propose a new nonparametric bootstrap inference on multilevel models that allows for a relatively flexible and distribution-free quantification of uncertainties. The proposed multilevel modeling approach may be elaborated to accommodate nonlinearities within days and years when sampling times or dates typically span temperature extremes.

  2. Market trends in the projection display industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dash, Sweta

    2000-04-01

    The projection display industry represents a multibillion- dollar market that includes four distinct technologies. High-volume consumer products and high-value business products drive the market, with different technologies being used in different application markets. The consumer market is dominated by rear CRT technology, especially in the projection television segment. But rear LCD (liquid crystal display) and rear reflective (DLP, or Digital Light ProcessingTM) televisions are slowly emerging as future competitors to rear CRT projectors. Front CRT projectors are still popular in the high-end home theater market. Front LCD technology and front DLP technology dominate the business market. Traditional light valve technology was the only solution for applications requiring high light outputs, but new three-chip DLP projectors meet the higher light output requirements at a lower price. In the last few years the strongest growth has been in the business market for multimedia presentation applications. This growth was due to the continued increase in display pixel formats, the continued reduction in projector weight, and the improved price/performance ratio. The projection display market will grow at a significant rate during the next five years, driven by the growth in ultraportable (market to digital and HDTV products.

  3. Recent trends in sea surface temperature off Mexico

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lluch-Cota, S.E.; Tripp-Valdéz, M.; Lluch-Cota, D.B.; Lluch-Belda, D.; Verbesselt, J.; Herrera-Cervantes, H.; Bautista-Romero, J.

    2013-01-01

    Changes in global mean sea surface temperature may have potential negative implications for natural and socioeconomic systems; however, measurements to predict trends in different regions have been limited and sometimes contradictory. In this study, an assessment of sea surface temperature change

  4. On the urban heat island effect dependence on temperature trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camilloni, I.; Barros, V.

    1997-01-01

    For US, Argentine and Australian cities, yearly mean urban to rural temperature differences (ΔT u-r ) and rural temperatures (T r ) are negatively correlated in almost every case, suggesting that urban heat island intensity depends, among other parameters on the temperature itself. This negative correlation is related to the fact that interannual variability of temperature is generally lower in urban environments than in rural areas. This seems to hold true at low frequencies leading to opposite trends in the two variables. Hence, urban stations are prone to have lower trends in absolute value than rural ones. Therefore, regional data sets including records from urban locations, in addition to urban growth bias may have a second type of urban bias associated with temperature trends. A bulk estimate of this second urban bias trend for the contiguous United States during 1901-1984 indicates that it could be of the same order as the urban growth bias and of opposite sign. If these results could be extended to global data, it could be expected that the spurious influence of urban growth on global temperature trends during warming periods will be offset by the diminishing of the urban heat island intensity. 36 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs

  5. Projections of precipitation, air temperature and potential ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    mabouelhaggag

    Precipitation and air temperature records from 6 sites in Rwanda in the period from 1964 to 2010 are used for past/present climate assessment. Future climate projections (2010-2099) based on 3 general circulation models and 2 emission scenarios (A2 and B1) are used for climate projections. Precipitation, air temperature ...

  6. Interpretation of Recent Temperature Trends in California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duffy, P B; Bonfils, C; Lobell, D

    2007-09-21

    Regional-scale climate change and associated societal impacts result from large-scale (e.g. well-mixed greenhouse gases) and more local (e.g. land-use change) 'forcing' (perturbing) agents. It is essential to understand these forcings and climate responses to them, in order to predict future climate and societal impacts. California is a fine example of the complex effects of multiple climate forcings. The State's natural climate is diverse, highly variable, and strongly influenced by ENSO. Humans are perturbing this complex system through urbanization, irrigation, and emission of multiple types of aerosols and greenhouse gases. Despite better-than-average observational coverage, we are only beginning to understand the manifestations of these forcings in California's temperature record.

  7. Spatiotemporal trends in mean temperatures and aridity index over Rwanda

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muhire, I.; Ahmed, F.

    2016-01-01

    This study aims at quantifying the trends in mean temperatures and aridity index over Rwanda for the period of 1961-1992, based on analysis of climatic data (temperatures, precipitations, and potential evapotranspiration). The analysis of magnitude and significance of trends in temperatures and aridity index show the degree of climate change and mark the level of vulnerability to extreme events (e.g., droughts) in different areas of the country. The study reveals that mean temperatures increased in most parts of the country, with a significant increase observed in the eastern lowlands and in the southwestern parts. The highlands located in the northwest and the Congo-Nile crest showed a nonsignificant increase in mean temperatures. Aridity index increased only in March, April, October, and November, corresponding with the rainy seasons. The remaining months of the year showed a decreasing trend. At an annual resolution, the highlands and the western region showed a rise in aridity index with a decreasing pattern over the eastern lowlands and the central plateau. Generally, the highlands presented a nonsignificant increase in mean temperatures and aridity index especially during the rainy seasons. The eastern lowlands showed a significant increase in mean temperatures and decreasing trends in aridity index. Therefore, these areas are bound to experience more droughts, leading to reduced water and consequent decline in agricultural production. On the other hand, the north highlands and southwest region will continue to be more productive.

  8. Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, M. M.; Orth, R.; Cheruy, F.; Hagemann, S.; Lorenz, R.; Hurk, B. J. J. M.; Seneviratne, S. I.

    2017-02-01

    Regional hot extremes are projected to increase more strongly than global mean temperature, with substantially larger changes than 2°C even if global warming is limited to this level. We investigate the role of soil moisture-temperature feedbacks for this response based on multimodel experiments for the 21st century with either interactive or fixed (late 20th century mean seasonal cycle) soil moisture. We analyze changes in the hottest days in each year in both sets of experiments, relate them to the global mean temperature increase, and investigate processes leading to these changes. We find that soil moisture-temperature feedbacks significantly contribute to the amplified warming of the hottest days compared to that of global mean temperature. This contribution reaches more than 70% in Central Europe and Central North America. Soil moisture trends are more important for this response than short-term soil moisture variability. These results are relevant for reducing uncertainties in regional temperature projections.

  9. Evaluation of trends in high temperature extremes in north-western Europe in regional climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Min, E; Hazeleger, W; Van Oldenborgh, G J; Sterl, A

    2013-01-01

    Projections of future changes in weather extremes on the regional and local scale depend on a realistic representation of trends in extremes in regional climate models (RCMs). We have tested this assumption for moderate high temperature extremes (the annual maximum of the daily maximum 2 m temperature, T ann.max ). Linear trends in T ann.max from historical runs of 14 RCMs driven by atmospheric reanalysis data are compared with trends in gridded station data. The ensemble of RCMs significantly underestimates the observed trends over most of the north-western European land surface. Individual models do not fare much better, with even the best performing models underestimating observed trends over large areas. We argue that the inability of RCMs to reproduce observed trends is probably not due to errors in large-scale circulation. There is also no significant correlation between the RCM T ann.max trends and trends in radiation or Bowen ratio. We conclude that care should be taken when using RCM data for adaptation decisions. (letter)

  10. Is the global mean temperature trend too low?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venema, Victor; Lindau, Ralf

    2015-04-01

    The global mean temperature trend may be biased due to similar technological and economic developments worldwide. In this study we want to present a number of recent results that suggest that the global mean temperature trend might be steeper as generally thought. In the Global Historical Climate Network version 3 (GHCNv3) the global land surface temperature is estimated to have increased by about 0.8°C between 1880 and 2012. In the raw temperature record, the increase is 0.6°C; the 0.2°C difference is due to homogenization adjustments. Given that homogenization can only reduce biases, this 0.2°C stems from a partial correction of bias errors and it seems likely that the real non-climatic trend bias will be larger. Especially in regions with sparser networks, homogenization will not be able to improve the trend much. Thus if the trend bias in these regions is similar to the bias for more dense networks (industrialized countries), one would expect the real bias to be larger. Stations in sparse networks are representative for a larger region and are given more weight in the computation of the global mean temperature. If all stations are given equal weight, the homogenization adjustments of the GHCNv3 dataset are about 0.4°C per century. In the subdaily HadISH dataset one break with mean size 0.12°C is found every 15 years for the period 1973-2013. That would be a trend bias of 0.78°C per century on a station by station basis. Unfortunately, these estimates strongly focus on Western countries having more stations. It is known from the literature that rich countries have a (statistically insignificant) stronger trend in the global datasets. Regional datasets can be better homogenized than global ones, the main reason being that global datasets do not contain all stations known to the weather services. Furthermore, global datasets use automatic homogenization methods and have less or no metadata. Thus while regional data can be biased themselves, comparing them

  11. Mesopause region temperature variability and its trend in southern Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venturini, Mateus S.; Bageston, José V.; Caetano, Nattan R.; Peres, Lucas V.; Bencherif, Hassan; Schuch, Nelson J.

    2018-03-01

    Nowadays, the study of the upper atmosphere is increasing, mostly because of the need to understand the patterns of Earth's atmosphere. Since studies on global warming have become very important for the development of new technologies, understanding all regions of the atmosphere becomes an unavoidable task. In this paper, we aim to analyze the temperature variability and its trend in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) region during a period of 12 years (from 2003 to 2014). For this purpose, three different heights, i.e., 85, 90 and 95 km, were focused on in order to investigate the upper atmosphere, and a geographic region different to other studies was chosen, in the southern region of Brazil, centered in the city of Santa Maria, RS (29°41'02'' S; 53°48'25'' W). In order to reach the objectives of this work, temperature data from the SABER instrument (Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry), aboard NASA's Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics Dynamics (TIMED) satellite, were used. Finally, two cases were studied related to distinct grids of latitude/longitude used to obtain the mean temperature profiles. The first case considered a grid of 20° × 20° lat/long, centered in Santa Maria, RS, Brazil. In the second case, the region was reduced to a size of 15° × 15° in order to compare the results and discuss the two cases in terms of differences or similarities in temperature trends. Observations show that the size of the geographical area used for the average temperature profiles can influence the results of variability and trend of the temperature. In addition, reducing the time duration of analyses from 24 to 12 h a day also influences the trend significantly. For the smaller geographical region (15° × 15°) and the 12 h daily time window (09:00-21:00 UT) it was found that the main contributions for the temperature variability at the three heights were the annual and semi-annual cycles and the solar flux influence

  12. Spatial distribution of unidirectional trends in temperature and temperature extremes in Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Najeebullah; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi bin; Wang, Xiao-Jun

    2018-06-01

    Pakistan is one of the most vulnerable countries of the world to temperature extremes due to its predominant arid climate and geographic location in the fast temperature rising zone. Spatial distribution of the trends in annual and seasonal temperatures and temperature extremes over Pakistan has been assessed in this study. The gauge-based gridded daily temperature data of Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) having a spatial resolution of 1° × 1° was used for the assessment of trends over the period 1960-2013 using modified Mann-Kendall test (MMK), which can discriminate the multi-decadal oscillatory variations from secular trends. The results show an increase in the annual average of daily maximum and minimum temperatures in 92 and 99% area of Pakistan respectively at 95% level of confidence. The annual temperature is increasing faster in southern high-temperature region compared to other parts of the country. The minimum temperature is rising faster (0.17-0.37 °C/decade) compared to maximum temperature (0.17-0.29 °C/decade) and therefore declination of diurnal temperature range (DTR) (- 0.15 to - 0.08 °C/decade) in some regions. The annual numbers of both hot and cold days are increasing in whole Pakistan except in the northern sub-Himalayan region. Heat waves are on the rise, especially in the hot Sindh plains and the Southern coastal region, while the cold waves are becoming lesser in the northern cold region. Obtained results contradict with the findings of previous studies on temperature trends, which indicate the need for reassessment of climatic trends in Pakistan using the MMK test to understand the anthropogenic impacts of climate change.

  13. Forcing, feedback and internal variability in global temperature trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marotzke, Jochem; Forster, Piers M

    2015-01-29

    Most present-generation climate models simulate an increase in global-mean surface temperature (GMST) since 1998, whereas observations suggest a warming hiatus. It is unclear to what extent this mismatch is caused by incorrect model forcing, by incorrect model response to forcing or by random factors. Here we analyse simulations and observations of GMST from 1900 to 2012, and show that the distribution of simulated 15-year trends shows no systematic bias against the observations. Using a multiple regression approach that is physically motivated by surface energy balance, we isolate the impact of radiative forcing, climate feedback and ocean heat uptake on GMST--with the regression residual interpreted as internal variability--and assess all possible 15- and 62-year trends. The differences between simulated and observed trends are dominated by random internal variability over the shorter timescale and by variations in the radiative forcings used to drive models over the longer timescale. For either trend length, spread in simulated climate feedback leaves no traceable imprint on GMST trends or, consequently, on the difference between simulations and observations. The claim that climate models systematically overestimate the response to radiative forcing from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations therefore seems to be unfounded.

  14. Worldwide surface temperature trends since the mid-19th century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parker, D.E.; Folland, C.K.

    1990-01-01

    Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the period 1856 to the present have been corrected to compensate for the use of uninsulated buckets prior to the early 1940s. Trends in the corrected SST are consistent with trends in independently corrected nighttime marine air temperatures (NMAT). Global-scale patterns of variation of annual anomalies of SST and NMAT, as revealed by the first three covariance eigenvectors, are also in close agreement. The corrected SST anomalies are also compared with those of nearby coastal and island land air temperatures. Global-scale agreement is good except in the early 20th century when the land data were relatively warm by up to 0.2 C. Proposed causes are the siting of thermometers in open-sided thatched sheds in tropical regions at that time, along with a marked tendency to warm westerly atmospheric circulation over Europe in winter. Combined fields of SST and land air temperature are presented. The relative overall coldness of the late 19th century land air temperatures appears to have arisen from inner-continental and high-latitude regions, especially in winter. Combined fields do not yield full global coverage even in the 1980s, so satellite-based SST data need to be blended carefully with the ship-based observations if monitoring of global climate is to be complete

  15. Worldwide surface temperature trends since the mid-19th century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parker, D.E.; Folland, C.K.

    1991-01-01

    Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the period 1856 to the present have been corrected to compensate for the use of uninsulated buckets prior to the early 1940s. Trends in the corrected SST are consistent with trends in independently corrected nighttime marine air temperatures (NMAT). Global-scale patterns of variation of annual anomalies of SST and NMAT, as revealed by the first three covariance eigenvectors, are also in close agreement. The corrected SST anomalies are also compared with those of nearby coastal and island land air temperatures. Global-scale agreement is good except in the early 20th century when the land data were relatively warm by up to 0.2 C. Proposed causes are the siting of thermometers in open-sided thatched sheds in tropical regions at that time, along with a marked tendency to warm westerly atmospheric circulation over Europe in winter. Combined fields of SST and land air temperature are presented. The relative overall coldness of the late 19th century land air temperatures appears to have arisen from inner-continental and high-latitude regions, especially in winter. Combined fields do not yield full global coverage even in the 1980s, so satellite-based SST data need to be blended carefully with the ship-based observations if monitoring of global climate is to be complete. 32 refs.; 16 figs

  16. Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Martha Marie; Orth, René; Cheruy, Frederique; Hagemann, Stefan; Lorenz, Ruth; van den Hurk, Bart; Seneviratne, Sonia Isabelle

    2017-04-01

    Regional hot extremes are projected to increase more strongly than global mean temperature, with substantially larger changes than 2°C even if global warming is limited to this level. We investigate here the role of soil moisture-temperature feedbacks for this response based on multi-model experiments for the 21st century with either interactive or fixed (late 20th century mean seasonal cycle) soil moisture. We analyze changes in the hottest days in each year in both sets of experiments, relate them to the global mean temperature increase, and investigate physical processes leading to these changes. We find that soil moisture-temperature feedbacks significantly contribute to the amplified warming of hottest days compared to that of global mean temperature. This contribution reaches more than 70% in Central Europe and Central North America and between 42%-52% in Amazonia, Northern Australia and Southern Africa. Soil moisture trends (multi-decadal soil moisture variability) are more important for this response than short-term (e.g. seasonal, interannual) soil moisture variability. These results are relevant for reducing uncertainties in regional temperature projections. Vogel, M.M. et al.,2017. Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks. Geophysical Research Letters, accepted.

  17. Temperature and Precipitation trends in Kashmir valley, North Western Himalayas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafiq, Mifta Ul; Rasool, Rehana; Ahmed, Pervez; Dimri, A. P.

    2018-01-01

    Climate change has emerged as an important issue ever to confront mankind. This concern emerges from the fact that our day-to-day activities are leading to impacts on the Earth's atmosphere that has the potential to significantly alter the planet's shield and radiation balance. Developing countries particularly whose income is particularly derived from agricultural activities are at the forefront of bearing repercussions due to changing climate. The present study is an effort to analyze the changing trends of precipitation and temperature variables in Kashmir valley along different elevation zones in the north western part of India. As the Kashmir valley has a rich repository of glaciers with its annual share of precipitation, slight change in the temperature and precipitation regime has far reaching environmental and economic consequences. The results from Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) data of the period 1980-2014 reveals that the annual mean temperature of Kashmir valley has increased significantly. Accelerated warming has been observed during 1980-2014, with intense warming in the recent years (2001-2014). During the period 1980-2014, steeper increase, in annual mean maximum temperature than annual mean minimum temperature, has been observed. In addition, mean maximum temperature in plain regions has shown higher rate of increase when compared with mountainous areas. In case of mean minimum temperature, mountainous regions have shown higher rate of increase. Analysis of precipitation data for the same period shows a decreasing trend with mountainous regions having the highest rate of decrease which can be quite hazardous for the fragile mountain environment of the Kashmir valley housing a large number of glaciers.

  18. Trends and Variability in Temperature Sensitivity of Lilac Flowering Phenology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Huanjiong; Dai, Junhu; Rutishauser, This; Gonsamo, Alemu; Wu, Chaoyang; Ge, Quansheng

    2018-03-01

    The responses of plant phenology to temperature variability have many consequences for ecological processes, agriculture, forestry, and human health. Temperature sensitivity (ST) of phenology could measure how and to what degree plant could phenologically track climate change. The long-term trends and spatial patterns in ST have been well studied for vegetative phenology such as leaf unfolding, but trends to be expected for reproductive phenology in the future remain unknown. Here we investigate trends and factors driving the temporal variation of ST of first bloom date (FBD). Using the long-term FBD records during 1963-2013 for common lilac (Syringa vulgaris) from 613 stations in Europe, we compared changes in ST from the beginning to the end of the study period. The Spearman partial correlations were used to assess the importance of four influencing factors. The results showed that the temporal changes in ST of FBD varied considerably among time scales. Mean ST decreased significantly by 0.92 days °C-1 from 1963-1972 to 2004-2013 (P plant species in other climates and environments using similar methods to our study.

  19. Interhemispheric Temperature Asymmetry in Historical Observations and Future Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, A. R.; Hwang, Y.; Chiang, J. C.; Frierson, D. M.

    2013-12-01

    The surface temperature contrast between the northern and southern hemispheres -- the interhemispheric temperature asymmetry (ITA) -- is an emerging indicator of global climate change, especially relevant to the latitude of the tropical rain bands. We investigate the ITA over historical observations and in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) historical simulations and future projections. We find that the uneven spatial impacts of greenhouse gas forcing cause amplified warming in the Arctic and northern landmasses, resulting in an increase of the ITA. However, anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, which are disproportionately emitted in the northern hemisphere, masked these effects on the ITA until around 1980. The implementation of air pollution regulations in North America and Europe combined with increased global emissions of greenhouse gases have resulted in a significant positive ITA trend since 1980. The CMIP5 historical multimodel ensembles simulate this positive ITA trend, though not its full magnitude. We explore how natural variability may account for some of the differences between the simulated and observed ITA. Future simulations project a substantial increase of the ITA over the twenty-first century, well outside its twentieth-century variability. This is largely in response to continued greenhouse gas emissions, though anthropogenic aerosol emissions are also important in some scenarios. We discuss the potential implications of this northern warming in causing a northward shift in tropical rainfall.

  20. Probability Distribution and Projected Trends of Daily Precipitation in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CAO; Li-Ge; ZHONG; Jun; SU; Bu-Da; ZHAI; Jian-Qing; Macro; GEMMER

    2013-01-01

    Based on observed daily precipitation data of 540 stations and 3,839 gridded data from the high-resolution regional climate model COSMO-Climate Limited-area Modeling(CCLM)for 1961–2000,the simulation ability of CCLM on daily precipitation in China is examined,and the variation of daily precipitation distribution pattern is revealed.By applying the probability distribution and extreme value theory to the projected daily precipitation(2011–2050)under SRES A1B scenario with CCLM,trends of daily precipitation series and daily precipitation extremes are analyzed.Results show that except for the western Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and South China,distribution patterns of the kurtosis and skewness calculated from the simulated and observed series are consistent with each other;their spatial correlation coefcients are above 0.75.The CCLM can well capture the distribution characteristics of daily precipitation over China.It is projected that in some parts of the Jianghuai region,central-eastern Northeast China and Inner Mongolia,the kurtosis and skewness will increase significantly,and precipitation extremes will increase during 2011–2050.The projected increase of maximum daily rainfall and longest non-precipitation period during flood season in the aforementioned regions,also show increasing trends of droughts and floods in the next 40 years.

  1. Mars Exospheric Temperature Trends as Revealed by MAVEN NGIMS Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bougher, Stephen W.; Olsen, Kirk; Roeten, Kali; Bell, Jared; Mahaffy, Paul; Benna, Mehdi; Elrod, Meredith; Jakosky, Bruce

    2015-11-01

    The Martian dayside upper thermosphere and exosphere temperatures (Texo) have been the subject of considerable debate and study since the first Mariner ultraviolet spectrometer (UVS) measurements (1969-1972), up to recent Mars Express SPICAM UVS measurements (2004-present) (e.g., see reviews by Stewart 1987; Bougher et al. 2000, 2014; Müeller-Wodarg et al. 2008; Stiepen et al. 2014). Prior to MAVEN, the Martian upper atmosphere thermal structure was poorly constrained by a limited number of both in-situ and remote sensing measurements at selected locations, seasons, and periods scattered throughout the solar cycle. Nevertheless, it is recognized that the Mars orbit eccentricity determines that both the solar cycle and seasonal variations in upper atmosphere temperatures must be considered together. The MAVEN NGIMS instrument measures the neutral composition of the major gas species (e.g. He, N, O, CO, N2, O2, NO, Ar and CO2) and their major isotopes, with a vertical resolution of ~5 km for targeted species and a target accuracy of <25% for most of these species (Mahaffy et al. 2014; 2015). Corresponding temperatures can now be derived from the neutral scale heights (especially CO2, Ar, and N2) (e.g. Mahaffy et al. 2015; Bougher et al. 2015). Texo mean temperatures spanning ~200 to 300 km are examined for both Deep Dip and Science orbits over 11-February 2015 (Ls ~ 290) to 14-July 2015 (Ls ~ 12). During these times, dayside sampling below 300 km occurred from the dusk terminator, across the dayside, and approaching the dawn terminator. NGIMS temperatures are investigated to extract spatial (e.g. SZA) and temporal (e.g. orbit-to-orbit, seasonal, solar rotational) variability and trends over this sampling period. Solar and seasonal driven trends in Texo are clearly visible, but orbit-to-orbit variability is significant, and demands further investigation to uncover the major drivers that are responsible.

  2. Reconciling divergent trends and millennial variations in Holocene temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsicek, Jeremiah; Shuman, Bryan N.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Shafer, Sarah L.; Brewer, Simon

    2018-02-01

    Cooling during most of the past two millennia has been widely recognized and has been inferred to be the dominant global temperature trend of the past 11,700 years (the Holocene epoch). However, long-term cooling has been difficult to reconcile with global forcing, and climate models consistently simulate long-term warming. The divergence between simulations and reconstructions emerges primarily for northern mid-latitudes, for which pronounced cooling has been inferred from marine and coastal records using multiple approaches. Here we show that temperatures reconstructed from sub-fossil pollen from 642 sites across North America and Europe closely match simulations, and that long-term warming, not cooling, defined the Holocene until around 2,000 years ago. The reconstructions indicate that evidence of long-term cooling was limited to North Atlantic records. Early Holocene temperatures on the continents were more than two degrees Celsius below those of the past two millennia, consistent with the simulated effects of remnant ice sheets in the climate model Community Climate System Model 3 (CCSM3). CCSM3 simulates increases in ‘growing degree days’—a measure of the accumulated warmth above five degrees Celsius per year—of more than 300 kelvin days over the Holocene, consistent with inferences from the pollen data. It also simulates a decrease in mean summer temperatures of more than two degrees Celsius, which correlates with reconstructed marine trends and highlights the potential importance of the different subseasonal sensitivities of the records. Despite the differing trends, pollen- and marine-based reconstructions are correlated at millennial-to-centennial scales, probably in response to ice-sheet and meltwater dynamics, and to stochastic dynamics similar to the temperature variations produced by CCSM3. Although our results depend on a single source of palaeoclimatic data (pollen) and a single climate-model simulation, they reinforce the notion that

  3. Importance of ensembles in projecting regional climate trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arritt, Raymond; Daniel, Ariele; Groisman, Pavel

    2016-04-01

    We have performed an ensemble of simulations using RegCM4 to examine the ability to reproduce observed trends in precipitation intensity and to project future changes through the 21st century for the central United States. We created a matrix of simulations over the CORDEX North America domain for 1950-2099 by driving the regional model with two different global models (HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-ESM2M, both for RCP8.5), by performing simulations at both 50 km and 25 km grid spacing, and by using three different convective parameterizations. The result is a set of 12 simulations (two GCMs by two resolutions by three convective parameterizations) that can be used to systematically evaluate the influence of simulation design on predicted precipitation. The two global models were selected to bracket the range of climate sensitivity in the CMIP5 models: HadGEM2-ES has the highest ECS of the CMIP5 models, while GFDL-ESM2M has one of the lowestt. Our evaluation metrics differ from many other RCM studies in that we focus on the skill of the models in reproducing past trends rather than the mean climate state. Trends in frequency of extreme precipitation (defined as amounts exceeding 76.2 mm/day) for most simulations are similar to the observed trend but with notable variations depending on RegCM4 configuration and on the driving GCM. There are complex interactions among resolution, choice of convective parameterization, and the driving GCM that carry over into the future climate projections. We also note that biases in the current climate do not correspond to biases in trends. As an example of these points the Emanuel scheme is consistently "wet" (positive bias in precipitation) yet it produced the smallest precipitation increase of the three convective parameterizations when used in simulations driven by HadGEM2-ES. However, it produced the largest increase when driven by GFDL-ESM2M. These findings reiterate that ensembles using multiple RCM configurations and driving GCMs are

  4. Characterizing and attributing the warming trend in sea and land surface temperatures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Estrada, Francisco; Martins, Luis Filipe; Perron, Pierre

    2017-01-01

    Because of low-frequency internal variability, the observed and underlying warming trends in temperature series can be markedly different. Important differences in the observed nonlinear trends in hemispheric temperature series suggest that the northern and southern hemispheres have responded

  5. A project for monitoring trends in burn severity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eidenshink, Jeffery C.; Schwind, Brian; Brewer, Ken; Zhu, Zhu-Liang; Quayle, Brad; Howard, Stephen M.

    2007-01-01

    Jeff Eidenshink, Brian Schwind, Ken Brewer, Zhi-Liang Zhu, Brad Quayle, and Elected officials and leaders of environmental agencies need information about the effects of large wildfires in order to set policy and make management decisions. Recently, the Wildland Fire Leadership Council (WFLC), which implements and coordinates the National Fire Plan (NFP) and Federal Wildland Fire Management Policies (National Fire Plan 2004), adopted a strategy to monitor the effectiveness of the National Fire Plan and the Healthy Forests Restoration Act (HFRA). One component of this strategy is to assess the environmental impacts of large wildland fires and identify the trends of burn severity on all lands across the United States. To that end, WFLC has sponsored a six-year project, Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS), which requires the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service (USDA-FS) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to map and assess the burn severity for all large current and historical fires. Using Landsat data and the differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) algorithm, the USGS Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) and USDA-FS Remote Sensing Applications Center will map burn severity of all fires since 1984 greater than 202 ha (500ac) in the east, and 404 ha (1,000 ac) in the west. The number of historical fires from this period combined with current fires occurring during the course of the project will exceed 9,000. The MTBS project will generate burn severity data, maps, and reports, which will be available for use at local, state, and national levels to evaluate trends in burn severity and help develop and assess the effectiveness of land management decisions. Additionally, the information developed will provide a baseline from which to monitor the recovery and health of fire-affected landscapes over time. Spatial and tabular data quantifying burn severity will augment existing information used to estimate risk associated with a range

  6. Decadal trends in Red Sea maximum surface temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaidez, V; Dreano, D; Agusti, S; Duarte, C M; Hoteit, I

    2017-08-15

    Ocean warming is a major consequence of climate change, with the surface of the ocean having warmed by 0.11 °C decade -1 over the last 50 years and is estimated to continue to warm by an additional 0.6 - 2.0 °C before the end of the century 1 . However, there is considerable variability in the rates experienced by different ocean regions, so understanding regional trends is important to inform on possible stresses for marine organisms, particularly in warm seas where organisms may be already operating in the high end of their thermal tolerance. Although the Red Sea is one of the warmest ecosystems on earth, its historical warming trends and thermal evolution remain largely understudied. We characterized the Red Sea's thermal regimes at the basin scale, with a focus on the spatial distribution and changes over time of sea surface temperature maxima, using remotely sensed sea surface temperature data from 1982 - 2015. The overall rate of warming for the Red Sea is 0.17 ± 0.07 °C decade -1 , while the northern Red Sea is warming between 0.40 and 0.45 °C decade -1 , all exceeding the global rate. Our findings show that the Red Sea is fast warming, which may in the future challenge its organisms and communities.

  7. Decadal trends in Red Sea maximum surface temperature

    KAUST Repository

    Chaidez, Veronica

    2017-08-09

    Ocean warming is a major consequence of climate change, with the surface of the ocean having warmed by 0.11 °C decade-1 over the last 50 years and is estimated to continue to warm by an additional 0.6 - 2.0 °C before the end of the century1. However, there is considerable variability in the rates experienced by different ocean regions, so understanding regional trends is important to inform on possible stresses for marine organisms, particularly in warm seas where organisms may be already operating in the high end of their thermal tolerance. Although the Red Sea is one of the warmest ecosystems on earth, its historical warming trends and thermal evolution remain largely understudied. We characterized the Red Sea\\'s thermal regimes at the basin scale, with a focus on the spatial distribution and changes over time of sea surface temperature maxima, using remotely sensed sea surface temperature data from 1982 - 2015. The overall rate of warming for the Red Sea is 0.17 ± 0.07 °C decade-1, while the northern Red Sea is warming between 0.40 and 0.45 °C decade-1, all exceeding the global rate. Our findings show that the Red Sea is fast warming, which may in the future challenge its organisms and communities.

  8. Decadal trends in Red Sea maximum surface temperature

    KAUST Repository

    Chaidez, Veronica; Dreano, Denis; Agusti, Susana; Duarte, Carlos M.; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2017-01-01

    Ocean warming is a major consequence of climate change, with the surface of the ocean having warmed by 0.11 °C decade-1 over the last 50 years and is estimated to continue to warm by an additional 0.6 - 2.0 °C before the end of the century1. However, there is considerable variability in the rates experienced by different ocean regions, so understanding regional trends is important to inform on possible stresses for marine organisms, particularly in warm seas where organisms may be already operating in the high end of their thermal tolerance. Although the Red Sea is one of the warmest ecosystems on earth, its historical warming trends and thermal evolution remain largely understudied. We characterized the Red Sea's thermal regimes at the basin scale, with a focus on the spatial distribution and changes over time of sea surface temperature maxima, using remotely sensed sea surface temperature data from 1982 - 2015. The overall rate of warming for the Red Sea is 0.17 ± 0.07 °C decade-1, while the northern Red Sea is warming between 0.40 and 0.45 °C decade-1, all exceeding the global rate. Our findings show that the Red Sea is fast warming, which may in the future challenge its organisms and communities.

  9. Curie temperature trends in (III, Mn)V ferromagnetic semiconductors

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Jungwirth, Tomáš; König, J.; Sinova, J.; Kučera, Jan; MacDonald, A. H.

    2002-01-01

    Roč. 66, č. 1 (2002), s. 012402-1-012402-4 ISSN 0163-1829 R&D Projects: GA MŠk OC P5.10; GA ČR GA202/02/0912 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1010914 Keywords : ferromagnetic semiconductors * Curie temperature Subject RIV: BM - Solid Matter Physics ; Magnetism Impact factor: 3.327, year: 2002

  10. Trends and associated uncertainty in the global mean temperature record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poppick, A. N.; Moyer, E. J.; Stein, M.

    2016-12-01

    Physical models suggest that the Earth's mean temperature warms in response to changing CO2 concentrations (and hence increased radiative forcing); given physical uncertainties in this relationship, the historical temperature record is a source of empirical information about global warming. A persistent thread in many analyses of the historical temperature record, however, is the reliance on methods that appear to deemphasize both physical and statistical assumptions. Examples include regression models that treat time rather than radiative forcing as the relevant covariate, and time series methods that account for natural variability in nonparametric rather than parametric ways. We show here that methods that deemphasize assumptions can limit the scope of analysis and can lead to misleading inferences, particularly in the setting considered where the data record is relatively short and the scale of temporal correlation is relatively long. A proposed model that is simple but physically informed provides a more reliable estimate of trends and allows a broader array of questions to be addressed. In accounting for uncertainty, we also illustrate how parametric statistical models that are attuned to the important characteristics of natural variability can be more reliable than ostensibly more flexible approaches.

  11. Cancer incidence in Canada: trends and projections (1983-2032

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin Xie

    2015-01-01

    liver cancer and leukemia in both sexes. In contrast, this region is projected to experience elevated incidence rates in males for about half the cancers studied. The incidence rates for all cancers combined are projected to continue to be highest for males in the Atlantic region and for females in Quebec in 15 years but in Ontario thereafter, and lowest in British Columbia. The inter-regional differences are larger in males than in females, possibly due to variations in prostate-specific antigen (PSA testing (for prostate cancer and risk factors. In both males and females, colorectal cancer incidence rates will remain highest in the Atlantic region and lowest in British Columbia. Lung cancer incidence rates are projected to be highest in Quebec and lowest in Ontario and British Columbia for both sexes. The similar regional rates of breast cancer in females are expected to persist. The significantly lowest rates of prostate cancer in Quebec are projected to continue, as are the elevated rates in the Atlantic region. Incidence by sex and age: Cancer is more common in males than in females except in those aged under 55. The overall cancer incidence rate in men aged 65 or older has been falling and will continue to do so. The decrease in lung cancer rates in men aged 65 or older from decreased tobacco use and the decrease in prostate cancer rates in men aged 75 or older have contributed to the overall decrease in this age range. In women aged 65 or older, the relatively stable rate is primarily the result of an increase in lung cancer incidence offset by decreases in incidence for the other cancer sites. This stable trend is projected to continue. Targeted cancer prevention efforts and specific needs for health care services can be expected to vary at different points in the age continuum for males and females. Smoking-related cancers: Between 2003-2007 and 2028-2032, substantial risk reductions are projected for major common tobacco-related cancers in Canada, even with

  12. Temporal trends in United States dew point temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Peter J.

    2000-07-01

    In this study, hourly data for the 1951-1990 period for 178 stations in the coterminous United States were used to establish temporal trends in dew point temperature. Although the data had been quality controlled previously (Robinson, 1998. Monthly variations of dew point temperatures in the coterminous United States. International Journal of Climatology 18: 1539-1556), comparisons of values between nearby stations suggested that instrumental changes, combined with locational changes, may have modified the results by as much as 1°C during the 40-year period. Nevertheless, seasonally averaged results indicated an increase over much of the area, of slightly over 1°C/100 years in spring and autumn, slightly less than this in summer. Winter displayed a drying of over 1°C/100 years. When only the 1961-1990 period was considered, the patterns were similar and trends increased by approximately 1-2°C/100 years, except in autumn, which displayed a slight drying. Analyses for specific stations indicated periods of both increasing and decreasing Td, the change between them varying with observation hour. No single change point was common over a wide area, although January commonly indicated maximum values early in the period in the east and west, and much later in the north-central portion. Rates of increase were generally higher in daytime than at night, especially in summer. Investigation of the inter-decadal differences in dew point, as a function of wind conditions, indicated that changes during calm conditions were commonly similar in magnitude to that of the overall average changes, suggesting an important role for the local hydrologic cycle in driving changes. Other inter-decadal changes could be attributed to the changes in the frequency and moisture content of invading air-streams. This was particularly clear for the changes in north-south flow in the interior.

  13. Trends in extreme temperature and precipitation in Muscat, Oman

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. N. Gunawardhana

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Changes in frequency and intensity of weather events often result in more frequent and intensive disasters such as flash floods and persistent droughts. In Oman, changes in precipitation and temperature have already been detected, although a comprehensive analysis to determine long-term trends is yet to be conducted. We analysed daily precipitation and temperature records in Muscat, the capital city of Oman, mainly focusing on extremes. A set of climate indices, defined in the RClimDex software package, were derived from the longest available daily series (precipitation over the period 1977–2011 and temperature over the period 1986–2011. Results showed significant changes in temperature extremes associated with cooling. Annual maximum value of daily maximum temperature (TX, on average, decreased by 1°C (0.42°C/10 year. Similarly, the annual minimum value of daily minimum temperature (TN decreased by 1.5°C (0.61°C/10 year, which, on average, cooled at a faster rate than the maximum temperature. Consequently, the annual count of days when TX > 45°C (98th percentile decreased from 8 to 3, by 5 days. Similarly, the annual count of days when TN < 15°C (2nd percentile increased from 5 to 15, by 10 days. Annual total precipitation averaged over the period 1977–2011 is 81 mm, which shows a tendency toward wetter conditions with a 6 mm/10 year rate. There is also a significant tendency for stronger precipitation extremes according to many indices. The contribution from very wet days to the annual precipitation totals steadily increases with significance at 75% level. When The General Extreme Value (GEV probability distribution is fitted to annual maximum 1-day precipitation, the return level of a 10-year return period in 1995–2011 was estimated to be 95 mm. This return level in the recent decade is about 70% higher than the return level for the period of 1977–1994. These results indicate that the long-term wetting signal apparent in total

  14. Trend analysis of air temperature and precipitation time series over Greece: 1955-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marougianni, G.; Melas, D.; Kioutsioukis, I.; Feidas, H.; Zanis, P.; Anandranistakis, E.

    2012-04-01

    In this study, a database of air temperature and precipitation time series from the network of Hellenic National Meteorological Service has been developed in the framework of the project GEOCLIMA, co-financed by the European Union and Greek national funds through the Operational Program "Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship" of the Research Funding Program COOPERATION 2009. Initially, a quality test was applied to the raw data and then missing observations have been imputed with a regularized, spatial-temporal expectation - maximization algorithm to complete the climatic record. Next, a quantile - matching algorithm was applied in order to verify the homogeneity of the data. The processed time series were used for the calculation of temporal annual and seasonal trends of air temperature and precipitation. Monthly maximum and minimum surface air temperature and precipitation means at all available stations in Greece were analyzed for temporal trends and spatial variation patterns for the longest common time period of homogenous data (1955 - 2010), applying the Mann-Kendall test. The majority of the examined stations showed a significant increase in the summer maximum and minimum temperatures; this could be possibly physically linked to the Etesian winds, because of the less frequent expansion of the low over the southeastern Mediterranean. Summer minimum temperatures have been increasing at a faster rate than that of summer maximum temperatures, reflecting an asymmetric change of extreme temperature distributions. Total annual precipitation has been significantly decreased at the stations located in western Greece, as well as in the southeast, while the remaining areas exhibit a non-significant negative trend. This reduction is very likely linked to the positive phase of the NAO that resulted in an increase in the frequency and persistence of anticyclones over the Mediterranean.

  15. Natural gas consumption trends and demand projections for Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uqaili, M.A.; Harijan, K.; Memon, H.U.R.

    2005-01-01

    Pakistan is an energy deficient country and heavily depends on imported energy. Natural gas is a dominating source of commercial energy in the country. This paper presents the natural gas consumption trends and future demand projections for Pakistan. The paper also investigates the potential utilization options of natural gas in the country. The study indicates that the natural gas consumption in the country increased rapidly at an average growth rate of about 6.8% per annum during the last three decades. Currently, natural gas contributes about 44.2% of the primary commercial energy supply in the country. Power, Fertilizer, General industry and Domestic sectors are the major consumers of gas in the country. The paper concludes the natural gas demand in the country is projected to increase to about 34-64 MTOE (Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent) by the year 2018. Enhancement in the indigenous exploration and modulation of gas and import of gas from central Asian Sates is essential for meeting the growing gas demand, protecting the environment and increasing the economic independence in the country. (author)

  16. Trends in continental temperature and humidity directly linked to ocean warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrne, Michael P; O'Gorman, Paul A

    2018-05-08

    In recent decades, the land surface has warmed substantially more than the ocean surface, and relative humidity has fallen over land. Amplified warming and declining relative humidity over land are also dominant features of future climate projections, with implications for climate-change impacts. An emerging body of research has shown how constraints from atmospheric dynamics and moisture budgets are important for projected future land-ocean contrasts, but these ideas have not been used to investigate temperature and humidity records over recent decades. Here we show how both the temperature and humidity changes observed over land between 1979 and 2016 are linked to warming over neighboring oceans. A simple analytical theory, based on atmospheric dynamics and moisture transport, predicts equal changes in moist static energy over land and ocean and equal fractional changes in specific humidity over land and ocean. The theory is shown to be consistent with the observed trends in land temperature and humidity given the warming over ocean. Amplified land warming is needed for the increase in moist static energy over drier land to match that over ocean, and land relative humidity decreases because land specific humidity is linked via moisture transport to the weaker warming over ocean. However, there is considerable variability about the best-fit trend in land relative humidity that requires further investigation and which may be related to factors such as changes in atmospheric circulations and land-surface properties.

  17. Recent temperature trends at mountain stations on the southern ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    in quantifying the magnitude of climatic trends in mountainous regions such as Nepal. .... Note: The topography is classified by using the SRTM3 digital elevation model (DEM), which ...... trends and flooding risk in the west of Scotland; Nordic.

  18. An assessment of historical Antarctic precipitation and temperature trend using CMIP5 models and reanalysis datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Malcolm S. Y.; Chenoli, Sheeba Nettukandy; Samah, Azizan Abu; Hai, Ooi See

    2018-03-01

    The study of Antarctic precipitation has attracted a lot of attention recently. The reliability of climate models in simulating Antarctic precipitation, however, is still debatable. This work assess the precipitation and surface air temperature (SAT) of Antarctica (90 oS to 60 oS) using 49 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models and the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts "Interim" reanalysis (ERA-Interim); the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR); the Japan Meteorological Agency 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55); and the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) datasets for 1979-2005 (27 years). For precipitation, the time series show that the MERRA and JRA-55 have significantly increased from 1979 to 2005, while the ERA-Int and CFSR have insignificant changes. The reanalyses also have low correlation with one another (generally less than +0.69). 37 CMIP5 models show increasing trend, 18 of which are significant. The resulting CMIP5 MMM also has a significant increasing trend of 0.29 ± 0.06 mm year-1. For SAT, the reanalyses show insignificant changes and have high correlation with one another, while the CMIP5 MMM shows a significant increasing trend. Nonetheless, the variability of precipitation and SAT of MMM could affect the significance of its trend. One of the many reasons for the large differences of precipitation is the CMIP5 models' resolution.

  19. The Low Temperature Microgravity Physics Experiments Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, Warren; Lai, Anthony; Croonquist, Arvid; Chui, Talso; Eraker, J. H.; Abbott, Randy; Mills, Gary; Mohl, James; Craig, James; Balachandra, Balu; hide

    2000-01-01

    The Low Temperature Microgravity Physics Facility (LTMPF) is being developed by NASA to provide long duration low temperature and microgravity environment on the International Space Station (ISS) for performing fundamental physics investigations. Currently, six experiments have been selected for flight definition studies. More will be selected in a two-year cycle, through NASA Research Announcement. This program is managed under the Low Temperature Microgravity Physics Experiments Project Office at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The facility is being designed to launch and returned to earth on a variety of vehicles including the HII-A and the space shuttle. On orbit, the facility will be connected to the Exposed Facility on the Japanese Experiment Module, Kibo. Features of the facility include a cryostat capable of maintaining super-fluid helium at a temperature of 1.4 K for 5 months, resistance thermometer bridges, multi-stage thermal isolation system, thermometers capable of pico-Kelvin resolution, DC SQUID magnetometers, passive vibration isolation, and magnetic shields with a shielding factor of 80dB. The electronics and software architecture incorporates two VME buses run using the VxWorks operating system. Technically challenging areas in the design effort include the following: 1) A long cryogen life that survives several launch and test cycles without the need to replace support straps for the helium tank. 2) The minimization of heat generation in the sample stage caused by launch vibration 3) The design of compact and lightweight DC SQUID electronics. 4) The minimization of RF interference for the measurement of heat at pico-Watt level. 5) Light weighting of the magnetic shields. 6) Implementation of a modular and flexible electronics and software architecture. The first launch is scheduled for mid-2003, on an H-IIA Rocket Transfer Vehicle, out of the Tanegashima Space Center of Japan. Two identical facilities will be built. While one facility is onboard

  20. COMPARISON OF TREND PROJECTION METHODS AND BACKPROPAGATION PROJECTIONS METHODS TREND IN PREDICTING THE NUMBER OF VICTIMS DIED IN TRAFFIC ACCIDENT IN TIMOR TENGAH REGENCY, NUSA TENGGARA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksius Madu

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to predict the number of traffic accident victims who died in Timor Tengah Regency with Trend Projection method and Backpropagation method, and compare the two methods based on the degree of guilt and predict the number traffic accident victims in the Timor Tengah Regency for the coming year. This research was conducted in Timor Tengah Regency where data used in this study was obtained from Police Unit in Timor Tengah Regency. The data is on the number of traffic accidents in Timor Tengah Regency from 2000 – 2013, which is obtained by a quantitative analysis with Trend Projection and Backpropagation method. The results of the data analysis predicting the number of traffic accidents victims using Trend Projection method obtained the best model which is the quadratic trend model with equation Yk = 39.786 + (3.297 X + (0.13 X2. Whereas by using back propagation method, it is obtained the optimum network that consists of 2 inputs, 3 hidden screens, and 1 output. Based on the error rates obtained, Back propagation method is better than the Trend Projection method which means that the predicting accuracy with Back propagation method is the best method to predict the number of traffic accidents victims in Timor Tengah Regency. Thus obtained predicting the numbers of traffic accident victims for the next 5 years (Years 2014-2018 respectively - are 106 person, 115 person, 115 person, 119 person and 120 person.   Keywords: Trend Projection, Back propagation, Predicting.

  1. Spatiotemporal trends in extreme rainfall and temperature indices over Upper Tapi Basin, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Priyank J.; Loliyana, V. D.; S. R., Resmi; Timbadiya, P. V.; Patel, P. L.

    2017-12-01

    The flood risk across the globe is intensified due to global warming and subsequent increase in extreme temperature and precipitation. The long-term trends in extreme rainfall (1944-2013) and temperature (1969-2012) indices have been investigated at annual, seasonal, and monthly time scales using nonparametric Mann-Kendall (MK), modified Mann-Kendall (MMK), and Sen's slope estimator tests. The extreme rainfall and temperature indices, recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring Indices (ETCCDMI), have been analyzed at finer spatial scales for trend detection. The results of trend analyses indicate decreasing trend in annual total rainfall, significant decreasing trend in rainy days, and increasing trend in rainfall intensity over the basin. The seasonal rainfall has been found to decrease for all the seasons except postmonsoon, which could affect the rain-fed agriculture in the basin. The 1- and 5-day annual maximum rainfalls exhibit mixed trends, wherein part of the basin experiences increasing trend, while other parts experience a decreasing trend. The increase in dry spells and concurrent decrease in wet spells are also observed over the basin. The extreme temperature indices revealed increasing trends in hottest and coldest days, while decreasing trends in coldest night are found over most parts of the basin. Further, the diurnal temperature range is also found to increase due to warming tendency in maximum temperature (T max) at a faster rate compared to the minimum temperature (T min). The increase in frequency and magnitude of extreme rainfall in the basin has been attributed to the increasing trend in maximum and minimum temperatures, reducing forest cover, rapid pace of urbanization, increase in human population, and thereby increase in the aerosol content in the atmosphere. The findings of the present study would significantly help in sustainable water resource planning, better decision-making for policy framework, and setting up

  2. The Low Temperature Microgravity Physics Facility Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chui, T.; Holmes, W.; Lai, A.; Croonquist, A.; Eraker, J.; Abbott, R.; Mills, G.; Mohl, J.; Craig, J.; Balachandra, B.; hide

    2000-01-01

    We describe the design and development of the Low Temperature Microgravity Physics Facility, which is intended to provide a unique environment of low temperature and microgravity for the scientists to perform breakthrough investigations on board the International Space Station.

  3. Deep Trek High Temperature Electronics Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bruce Ohme

    2007-07-31

    This report summarizes technical progress achieved during the cooperative research agreement between Honeywell and U.S. Department of Energy to develop high-temperature electronics. Objects of this development included Silicon-on-Insulator (SOI) wafer process development for high temperature, supporting design tools and libraries, and high temperature integrated circuit component development including FPGA, EEPROM, high-resolution A-to-D converter, and a precision amplifier.

  4. Detecting Variation Trends of Temperature and Precipitation for the Dadu River Basin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Wu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes the variation trends of temperature and precipitation in the Dadu River Basin of China based on observed records from fourteen meteorological stations. The magnitude of trends was estimated using Sen’s linear method while its statistical significance was evaluated using Mann-Kendall’s test. The results of analysis depict increase change from northwest to southeast of annual temperature and precipitation in space. In temporal scale, the annual temperature showed significant increase trend and the annual precipitation showed increase trend. For extreme indices, the trends for temperature are more consistent in the region compared to precipitation. This paper has practical meanings for an effective management of climate risk and provides a foundation for further study of hydrological situation in this river basin.

  5. Long-term trends of daily maximum and minimum temperatures for the major cities of South Korea and their implications on human health

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Choi, B. C.; Kim, J.; Lee, D. G.; Kyselý, Jan

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 17, č. 2 (2007), s. 171-183 ISSN N R&D Projects: GA ČR GC205/07/J044 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : Temperature trends * Biometeorology * Climate change * Global warming * Human health * Temperature extremes * Urbanization Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology

  6. An examination of fuel consumption trends in construction projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peters, Valerie A.; Manley, Dawn K.

    2012-01-01

    Recent estimates of fuel consumption in construction projects are highly variable. Lack of standards for reporting at both the equipment and project levels make it difficult to quantify the magnitude of fuel consumption and the associated opportunities for efficiency improvements in construction projects. In this study, we examined clusters of Environmental Impact Reports for seemingly similar construction projects in California. We observed that construction projects are not characterized consistently by task or equipment. We found wide variations in estimates for fuel use in terms of tasks, equipment, and overall projects, which may be attributed in part to inconsistencies in methodology and parameter ranges. Our analysis suggests that standardizing fuel consumption reporting and estimation methodologies for construction projects would enable quantification of opportunities for efficiency improvements at both the equipment and project levels. With increasing emphasis on reducing fossil fuel consumption, it will be important to quantify opportunities to increase fuel efficiency, including across the construction sector. - Highlights: ► An analysis of construction projects reveals inconsistencies in fuel use estimates. ► Fuel consumption estimates for similar construction equipment can vary greatly. ► Standards would help to quantify efficiency opportunities in construction.

  7. Oklahoma Study of Educator Supply and Demand: Trends and Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg-Jacobson, Alex; Levin, Jesse

    2015-01-01

    In June 2014, the Oklahoma State Regents of Higher Education (OSRHE) commissioned American Institutes for Research (AIR) to conduct a study to better understand both historical and future predicted trends of educator supply and demand across Oklahoma. OSRHE commissioned the study in partnership with the Oklahoma Commission for Teacher Preparation…

  8. Toward 2000. Trends Report II: Elementary-Secondary Projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Press, Harold L.

    Comprehensive, systematic planning provides the overall direction for education through the development of policies and objectives. An understanding of demographic, social, and economic trends is necessary for educators to make decisions for the future. The 1986 demographic forecasts for the province of Newfoundland are updated in this report,…

  9. The Trends In Temperature And Solar Irradiance For Zaria, North

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dogara et al.

    ... when the temperature rises, the alcohol expands past the index, which stays in position; so that at the end of the day, the minimum temperature corresponds to the upper or right side of the index (Landis, 2009). Figure 2: A Typical Outdoor Minima-Maxima Thermometer. Principle of Operation. The ideal gas law states that.

  10. Wet-bulb, dew point, and air temperature trends in Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moratiel, R.; Soriano, B.; Centeno, A.; Spano, D.; Snyder, R. L.

    2017-10-01

    This study analyses trends of mean ( T m), maximum ( T x), minimum ( T n), dew point ( T d), and wet-bulb temperatures ( T w) on an annual, seasonal, and monthly time scale over Spain during the period 1981-2010. The main purpose was to determine how temperature and humidity changes are impacting on T w, which is probably a better measure of climate change than temperature alone. In this study, 43 weather stations were used to detect data trends using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and the Sen method to estimate the slope of trends. Significant linear trends observed for T m, T x, and T n versus year were 56, 58, and 47 % of the weather stations, respectively, with temperature ranges between 0.2 and 0.4 °C per decade. The months with bigger trends were April, May, June, and July with the highest trend for T x. The spatial behaviour of T d and T w was variable, with various locations showing trends from -0.6 to +0.3 °C per decade for T d and from -0.4 to +0.5 °C per decade for T w. Both T d and T w showed negative trends for July, August, September, November, and December. Comparing the trends versus time of each variable versus each of the other variables exhibited poor relationships, which means you cannot predict the trend of one variable from the trend of another variable. The trend of T x was not related to the trend of T n. The trends of T x, T m, and T n versus time were unrelated to the trends versus time of either T d or T w. The trend of T w showed a high coefficient of determination with the trend of T d with an annual value of R 2 = 0.86. Therefore, the T w trend is more related to changes in humidity than temperature.

  11. A stable boundary layer perspective on global temperature trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McNider, R T; Christy, J R; Biazar, A

    2010-01-01

    One of the most significant signals in the thermometer-observed temperature record since 1900 is the decrease in the diurnal temperature range over land, largely due to warming of the minimum temperatures. While some data sets have indicated this asymmetrical warming has been reduced since 1979, regional analyses (e.g. East Africa) indicate that the nocturnal warming continues at a pace greater than daytime temperatures. The cause for this night time warming in the observed temperatures has been attributed to a variety of causes. Climate models have in general not replicated the change in diurnal temperature range well. Here we would like to try to distinguish between warming in the nocturnal boundary layer due to a redistribution of heat and warming due to the accumulation of heat. The temperature at night at shelter height is a result of competition between thermal stability and mechanical shear. If stability wins then turbulence is suppressed and the cooling surface becomes cut-off from the warmer air aloft, which leads to sharp decay in surface air temperature. If shear wins, then turbulence is maintained and warmer air from aloft is continually mixed to the surface, which leads to significantly lower cooling rates and warmer temperatures. This warming occurs due to a redistribution of heat. As will be shown by techniques of nonlinear analysis the winner of the stability and shear contest can be very sensitive to changes in greenhouse gas forcing, surface roughness, cloudiness, and surface heat capacity (including soil moisture). Further, the minimum temperatures measured in the nocturnal boundary layer represent only a very shallow layer of the atmosphere which is usually only a few hundred meters thick. It is likely that the observed warming in minimum temperature, whether caused by additional greenhouse forcing or land use changes or other land surface dynamics, is reflecting a redistribution of heat by turbulence-not an accumulation of heat. Because minimum

  12. Change features and regional distribution of temperature trend and variability joint mode in mainland China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xi; Li, Ning; Zhang, Zhengtao; Feng, Jieling; Wang, Ye

    2018-05-01

    Adaption for temperature should be suitable to local conditions for regional differences in temperature change features. This paper proposed to utilize nine temperature modes that joint the trend (increasing/decreasing/unchanged) with variability (intensifying/weakening/unchanged) to investigate features of temperature change in mainland China. Monthly temperature data over the period 1960-2013 were obtained from 522 national basic and reference meteorological stations. Here, temperature trend (TT) was reflected by the trend of mean annual temperature (MAT) and the uptrend (downtrend) of inter-monthly sliding standard deviation (SSD) series with a sliding length of 29 years (348 months) was used for representing the intensification (weakening) of temperature variability (TV). The Mann-Kendall method and the least squares method were applied to assess the significance and quantify the magnitude of trend in MAT and SSD time series, respectively. The results show that there is a consistent warming trend throughout the country except for only three stations in which a cooling trend is identified. Moreover, the overall increasing rate in the north of 35° N is the highest, over 0.4 °C/decade for most stations. TV is weakened for almost 98% of the stations, indicating the low instability of temperature at a national scale. Finally, temperature mode (TM), for more than 90% of the stations, is the combination of an increasing TT with a weakened TV (mode 8). So, it is more important for people to adapt to the increasing temperature in these regions. Compared to using annual temperature data to calculate SSD, monthly data can accurately reflect the inter-monthly change of temperature and reserve more initial characteristics of temperature.

  13. Massachusetts Study of Teacher Supply and Demand: Trends and Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, Jesse; Berg-Jacobson, Alex; Atchison, Drew; Lee, Katelyn; Vontsolos, Emily

    2015-01-01

    In April 2015, the Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (ESE) commissioned American Institutes for Research (AIR) to develop a comprehensive set of 10-year projections of teacher supply and demand in order to inform planning for future workforce needs. This included state-level projections both in the aggregate, as well…

  14. Seasonal and elevational contrasts in temperature trends in Central Chile between 1979 and 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burger, F.; Brock, B.; Montecinos, A.

    2018-03-01

    We analyze trends in temperature from 18 temperature stations and one upper air sounding site at 30°-35° S in central Chile between 1979-2015, to explore geographical and season temperature trends and their controls, using regional ocean-atmosphere indices. Significant warming trends are widespread at inland stations, while trends are non-significant or negative at coastal sites, as found in previous studies. However, ubiquitous warming across the region in the past 8 years, suggests the recent period of coastal cooling has ended. Significant warming trends are largely restricted to austral spring, summer and autumn seasons, with very few significant positive or negative trends in winter identified. Autumn warming is notably strong in the Andes, which, together with significant warming in spring, could help to explain the negative mass balance of snow and glaciers in the region. A strong Pacific maritime influence on regional temperature trends is inferred through correlation with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) index and coastal sea surface temperature, but the strength of this influence rapidly diminishes inland, and the majority of valley, and all Andes, sites are independent of the IPO index. Instead, valley and Andes sites, and mid-troposphere temperature in the coastal radiosonde profile, show correlation with the autumn Antarctic Oscillation which, in its current positive phase, promotes subsidence and warming at the latitude of central Chile.

  15. Trends in extremes of temperature, dew point, and precipitation from long instrumental series from central Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kürbis, K.; Mudelsee, M.; Tetzlaff, G.; Brázdil, R.

    2009-09-01

    For the analysis of trends in weather extremes, we introduce a diagnostic index variable, the exceedance product, which combines intensity and frequency of extremes. We separate trends in higher moments from trends in mean or standard deviation and use bootstrap resampling to evaluate statistical significances. The application of the concept of the exceedance product to daily meteorological time series from Potsdam (1893 to 2005) and Prague-Klementinum (1775 to 2004) reveals that extremely cold winters occurred only until the mid-20th century, whereas warm winters show upward trends. These changes were significant in higher moments of the temperature distribution. In contrast, trends in summer temperature extremes (e.g., the 2003 European heatwave) can be explained by linear changes in mean or standard deviation. While precipitation at Potsdam does not show pronounced trends, dew point does exhibit a change from maximum extremes during the 1960s to minimum extremes during the 1970s.

  16. Projections of rapidly rising surface temperatures over Africa under low mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Engelbrecht, Francois; Bopape, Mary-Jane; Naidoo, Mogesh; Garland, Rebecca; Adegoke, Jimmy; Thatcher, Marcus; McGregor, John; Katzfey, Jack; Werner, Micha; Ichoku, Charles; Gatebe, Charles

    2015-01-01

    An analysis of observed trends in African annual-average near-surface temperatures over the last five decades reveals drastic increases, particularly over parts of the subtropics and central tropical Africa. Over these regions, temperatures have been rising at more than twice the global rate of temperature increase. An ensemble of high-resolution downscalings, obtained using a single regional climate model forced with the sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice fields of an ensemble of global circulation model (GCM) simulations, is shown to realistically represent the relatively strong temperature increases observed in subtropical southern and northern Africa. The amplitudes of warming are generally underestimated, however. Further warming is projected to occur during the 21st century, with plausible increases of 4–6 °C over the subtropics and 3–5 °C over the tropics by the end of the century relative to present-day climate under the A2 (a low mitigation) scenario of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios. High impact climate events such as heat-wave days and high fire-danger days are consistently projected to increase drastically in their frequency of occurrence. General decreases in soil-moisture availability are projected, even for regions where increases in rainfall are plausible, due to enhanced levels of evaporation. The regional dowscalings presented here, and recent GCM projections obtained for Africa, indicate that African annual-averaged temperatures may plausibly rise at about 1.5 times the global rate of temperature increase in the subtropics, and at a somewhat lower rate in the tropics. These projected increases although drastic, may be conservative given the model underestimations of observed temperature trends. The relatively strong rate of warming over Africa, in combination with the associated increases in extreme temperature events, may be key factors to consider when interpreting the suitability of global mitigation targets in terms of

  17. SWATS: Diurnal Trends in the Soil Temperature Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cook, David [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Theisen, Adam [Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States)

    2017-06-30

    During the processing of data for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility ARMBE2D Value-Added Product (VAP), the developers noticed that the SWATS soil temperatures did not show a decreased temporal variability with increased depth with the new E30+ Extended Facilities (EFs), unlike the older EFs at ARM’s Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. The instrument mentor analyzed the data and reported that all SWATS locations have shown this behavior but that the magnitude of the problem was greatest at EFs E31-E38. The data were analyzed to verify the initial assessments of: 1. 5 cm SWATS data were valid for all EFs and 15 cm soil temperature measurements were valid at all EFs other than E31-E38, 2. Use only nighttime SWATS soil temperature measurements to calculate daily average soil temperatures, 3. Since it seems likely that the soil temperature measurements below 15cm were affected by the solar heating of the enclosure at all but E31-38, and at all depths below 5cm at E31-38, individual measurements of soil temperature at these depths during daylight hours, and daily averages of the same, can ot be trusted on most (particularly sunny) days.

  18. Arctic temperature and moisture trends during the past 2000 years - Progress from multiproxy-paleoclimate data compilations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufman, Darrell; Routson, Cody; McKay, Nicholas; Beltrami, Hugo; Jaume-Santero, Fernando; Konecky, Bronwen; Saenger, Casey

    2017-04-01

    Instrumental climate data and climate-model projections show that Arctic-wide surface temperature and precipitation are positively correlated. Higher temperatures coincide with greater moisture by: (1) expanding the duration and source area for evaporation as sea ice retracts, (2) enhancing the poleward moisture transport, and (3) increasing the water-vapor content of the atmosphere. Higher temperature also influences evaporation rate, and therefore precipitation minus evaporation (P-E), the climate variable often sensed by paleo-hydroclimate proxies. Here, we test whether Arctic temperature and moisture also correlate on centennial timescales over the Common Era (CE). We use the new PAGES2k multiproxy-temperature dataset along with a first-pass compilation of moisture-sensitive proxy records to calculate century-scale composite timeseries, with a focus on longer records that extend back through the first millennium CE. We present a new Arctic borehole temperature reconstruction as a check on the magnitude of Little Ice Age cooling inferred from the proxy records, and we investigate the spatial pattern of centennial-scale variability. Similar to previous reconstructions, v2 of the PAGES2k proxy temperature dataset shows that, prior to the 20th century, mean annual Arctic-wide temperature decreased over the CE. The millennial-scale cooling trend is most prominent in proxy records from glacier ice, but is also registered in lake and marine sediment, and trees. In contrast, the composite of moisture-sensitive (primarily P-E) records does not exhibit a millennial-scale trend. Determining whether fluctuations in the mean state of Arctic temperature and moisture were in fact decoupled is hampered by the difficulty in detecting a significant trend within the relatively small number of spatially heterogeneous multi-proxy moisture-sensitive records. A decoupling of temperature and moisture would indicate that evaporation had a strong counterbalancing effect on precipitation

  19. Analysis of Global Urban Temperature Trends and Urbanization Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, K. I.; Ryu, J.; Jeon, S. W.

    2018-04-01

    Due to urbanization, urban areas are shrinking green spaces and increasing concrete, asphalt pavement. So urban climates are different from non-urban areas. In addition, long-term macroscopic studies of urban climate change are becoming more important as global urbanization affects global warming. To do this, it is necessary to analyze the effect of urbanization on the temporal change in urban temperature with the same temperature data and standards for urban areas around the world. In this study, time series analysis was performed with the maximum, minimum, mean and standard values of surface temperature during the from 1980 to 2010 and analyzed the effect of urbanization through linear regression analysis with variables (population, night light, NDVI, urban area). As a result, the minimum value of the surface temperature of the urban area reflects an increase by a rate of 0.28K decade-1 over the past 31 years, the maximum value reflects an increase by a rate of 0.372K decade-1, the mean value reflects an increase by a rate of 0.208 decade-1, and the standard deviation reflects a decrease by rate of 0.023K decade-1. And the change of surface temperature in urban areas is affected by urbanization related to land cover such as decrease of greenery and increase of pavement area, but socioeconomic variables are less influential than NDVI in this study. This study are expected to provide an approach to future research and policy-planning for urban temperature change and urbanization impacts.

  20. Can air temperature be used to project influences of climate change on stream temperature?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivan Arismendi; Mohammad Safeeq; Jason B Dunham; Sherri L Johnson

    2014-01-01

    Worldwide, lack of data on stream temperature has motivated the use of regression-based statistical models to predict stream temperatures based on more widely available data on air temperatures. Such models have been widely applied to project responses of stream temperatures under climate change, but the performance of these models has not been fully evaluated. To...

  1. Trend analysis and change point detection of annual and seasonal temperature series in Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suhaila, Jamaludin; Yusop, Zulkifli

    2017-06-01

    Most of the trend analysis that has been conducted has not considered the existence of a change point in the time series analysis. If these occurred, then the trend analysis will not be able to detect an obvious increasing or decreasing trend over certain parts of the time series. Furthermore, the lack of discussion on the possible factors that influenced either the decreasing or the increasing trend in the series needs to be addressed in any trend analysis. Hence, this study proposes to investigate the trends, and change point detection of mean, maximum and minimum temperature series, both annually and seasonally in Peninsular Malaysia and determine the possible factors that could contribute to the significance trends. In this study, Pettitt and sequential Mann-Kendall (SQ-MK) tests were used to examine the occurrence of any abrupt climate changes in the independent series. The analyses of the abrupt changes in temperature series suggested that most of the change points in Peninsular Malaysia were detected during the years 1996, 1997 and 1998. These detection points captured by Pettitt and SQ-MK tests are possibly related to climatic factors, such as El Niño and La Niña events. The findings also showed that the majority of the significant change points that exist in the series are related to the significant trend of the stations. Significant increasing trends of annual and seasonal mean, maximum and minimum temperatures in Peninsular Malaysia were found with a range of 2-5 °C/100 years during the last 32 years. It was observed that the magnitudes of the increasing trend in minimum temperatures were larger than the maximum temperatures for most of the studied stations, particularly at the urban stations. These increases are suspected to be linked with the effect of urban heat island other than El Niño event.

  2. High-temperature brazing, state and development trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lugscheider, E.

    1980-01-01

    The advantages of higher-temperature brazing as compared to welding methods are to be increasingly found in the field of applications, not merely in highly specialized fabriaction branches but also in common fields. Problems on basic materials, brazing construction, brazing method and testing of the joints as well as examples of application are treated. (orig./IHOE) [de

  3. On rising temperature trends at Dehradun in Doon valley of ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    temperature changes at Dehradun city by analyzing the time series data of annual maximum, minimum and mean ... Moreover, about 80% of future economic growth will occur in cities ... Assessing the impacts of urbanization and land ... tant business, educational and cultural destination ... Tourism and transportation. 203.0.

  4. Towards constraining extreme temperature projections of the CMIP5 ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Martha-Marie; Orth, René; Isabelle Seneviratne, Sonia

    2016-04-01

    The frequency and intensity of heat waves is expected to change in future in response to global warming. Given the severe impacts of heat waves on ecosystems and society it is important to understand how and where they will intensify. Projections of extreme hot temperatures in the IPCC AR5 model ensemble show large uncertainties for projected changes of extreme temperatures in particular in Central Europe. In this region land-atmosphere coupling can contribute substantially to the development of heat waves. This coupling is also subject to change in future, while model projections display considerable spread. In this work we link projections of changes in extreme temperatures and of changes in land-atmosphere interactions with a particular focus on Central Europe. Uncertainties in projected extreme temperatures can be partly explained by different projected changes of the interplay between latent heat and temperature as well as soil moisture. Given the considerable uncertainty in land-atmosphere coupling representation already in the current climate, we furthermore employ observational data sets to constrain the model ensemble, and consequently the extreme temperature projections.

  5. Sulphate and desertification signals in Middle Eastern temperature trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nasrallah, H.A.; Balling, R.C. Jr.

    1994-01-01

    Analysis of Middle Eastern annual temperature anomalies over the past 40 years reveals statistically significant warming over this time period of 0.07 C per decade. The warming is most pronounced over the spring season and least apparent in the winter season. Spatial analysis reveals a positive relationship between Middle Eastern warming and the degree of human-induced desertification and a negative relationship between local warming and the atmospheric concentration of sulphate

  6. Global Trend Analysis of Multi-decade Soil Temperature Records Show Soils Resistant to Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frey, S. D.; Jennings, K.

    2017-12-01

    Soil temperature is an important determinant of many subterranean ecological processes including plant growth, nutrient cycling, and carbon sequestration. Soils are expected to warm in response to increasing global surface temperatures; however, despite the importance of soil temperature to ecosystem processes, less attention has been given to examining changes in soil temperature over time. We collected long-term (> 20 years) soil temperature records from approximately 50 sites globally, many with multiple depths (5 - 100 cm), and examined temperature trends over the last few decades. For each site and depth we calculated annual summer means and conducted non-parametric Mann Kendall trend and Sen slope analysis to assess changes in summer soil temperature over the length of each time series. The mean summer soil temperature trend across all sites and depths was not significantly different than zero (mean = 0.004 °C year-1 ± 0.033 SD), suggesting that soils have not warmed over the observation period. Of the subset of sites that exhibit significant increases in temperature over time, site location, depth of measurement, time series length, and neither start nor end date seem to be related to trend strength. These results provide evidence that the thermal regime of soils may have a stronger buffering capacity than expected, having important implications for the global carbon cycle and feedbacks to climate change.

  7. Evaluation of CMIP5 Ability to Reproduce 20th Century Regional Trends in Surface Air Temperature and Precipitation over CONUS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, J.; Waliser, D. E.; Lee, H.; Loikith, P. C.; Kunkel, K.

    2017-12-01

    Monitoring temporal changes in key climate variables, such as surface air temperature and precipitation, is an integral part of the ongoing efforts of the United States National Climate Assessment (NCA). Climate models participating in CMIP5 provide future trends for four different emissions scenarios. In order to have confidence in the future projections of surface air temperature and precipitation, it is crucial to evaluate the ability of CMIP5 models to reproduce observed trends for three different time periods (1895-1939, 1940-1979, and 1980-2005). Towards this goal, trends in surface air temperature and precipitation obtained from the NOAA nClimGrid 5 km gridded station observation-based product are compared during all three time periods to the 206 CMIP5 historical simulations from 48 unique GCMs and their multi-model ensemble (MME) for NCA-defined climate regions during summer (JJA) and winter (DJF). This evaluation quantitatively examines the biases of simulated trends of the spatially averaged temperature and precipitation in the NCA climate regions. The CMIP5 MME reproduces historical surface air temperature trends for JJA for all time period and all regions, except the Northern Great Plains from 1895-1939 and Southeast during 1980-2005. Likewise, for DJF, the MME reproduces historical surface air temperature trends across all time periods over all regions except the Southeast from 1895-1939 and the Midwest during 1940-1979. The Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES), an analysis tool which supports the NCA by providing access to data and tools for regional climate model validation, facilitates the comparisons between the models and observation. The RCMES Toolkit is designed to assist in the analysis of climate variables and the procedure of the evaluation of climate projection models to support the decision-making processes. This tool is used in conjunction with the above analysis and results will be presented to demonstrate its capability to

  8. Long-term trends in stratospheric ozone, temperature, and water vapor over the Indian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thankamani Akhil Raj, Sivan; Venkat Ratnam, Madineni; Narayana Rao, Daggumati; Venkata Krishna Murthy, Boddam

    2018-01-01

    We have investigated the long-term trends in and variabilities of stratospheric ozone, water vapor and temperature over the Indian monsoon region using the long-term data constructed from multi-satellite (Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS MLS and HALOE, 1993-2005), Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS, 2004-2015), Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER, 2002-2015) on board TIMED (Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics Dynamics)) observations covering the period 1993-2015. We have selected two locations, namely, Trivandrum (8.4° N, 76.9° E) and New Delhi (28° N, 77° E), covering northern and southern parts of the Indian region. We also used observations from another station, Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E), for comparison. A decreasing trend in ozone associated with NOx chemistry in the tropical middle stratosphere is found, and the trend turned to positive in the upper stratosphere. Temperature shows a cooling trend in the stratosphere, with a maximum around 37 km over Trivandrum (-1.71 ± 0.49 K decade-1) and New Delhi (-1.15 ± 0.55 K decade-1). The observed cooling trend in the stratosphere over Trivandrum and New Delhi is consistent with Gadanki lidar observations during 1998-2011. The water vapor shows a decreasing trend in the lower stratosphere and an increasing trend in the middle and upper stratosphere. A good correlation between N2O and O3 is found in the middle stratosphere (˜ 10 hPa) and poor correlation in the lower stratosphere. There is not much regional difference in the water vapor and temperature trends. However, upper stratospheric ozone trends over Trivandrum and New Delhi are different. The trend analysis carried out by varying the initial year has shown significant changes in the estimated trend.

  9. Long-Term Trend Analysis of Precipitation and Air Temperature for Kentucky, United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Somsubhra Chattopadhyay

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Variation in quantities such as precipitation and temperature is often assessed by detecting and characterizing trends in available meteorological data. The objective of this study was to determine the long-term trends in annual precipitation and mean annual air temperature for the state of Kentucky. Non-parametric statistical tests were applied to homogenized and (as needed pre-whitened annual series of precipitation and mean air temperature during 1950–2010. Significant trends in annual precipitation were detected (both positive, averaging 4.1 mm/year for only two of the 60 precipitation-homogenous weather stations (Calloway and Carlisle counties in rural western Kentucky. Only three of the 42 temperature-homogenous stations demonstrated trends (all positive, averaging 0.01 °C/year in mean annual temperature: Calloway County, Allen County in southern-central Kentucky, and urbanized Jefferson County in northern-central Kentucky. In view of the locations of the stations demonstrating positive trends, similar work in adjacent states will be required to better understand the processes responsible for those trends and to properly place them in their larger context, if any.

  10. Trends and variation in monthly rainfall and temperature in Suriname

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raid, Nurmohamed

    2004-01-01

    As Surinam lies within the equatorial trough zone, climate is mainly influenced by the movement and intensity of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone and the El Nino Southern Oscillation. Scientist predict that global climate change will directly effect the hydrological cycle such as rainfall and temperature, and extreme events such as a El Nino and La Nina. The aim of this study is to analyze historical changes in monthly rainfall and temperature and to predict future changes, with respect to climate change (doubling of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) by 2100) and variability. Linear extrapolation and five Global Circulations Models (GCMS) (HadCM2, ECHAM4, GFDL-TR, CSIRO2-EQ, CCSR-NIES) will be used. Results of GCMs have showed that under global climate change by 2100, the monthly rainfall is predicted to change with -82 to 66 mm during January and August, and -36 to 47 mm during September and November. The monthly temperature is predicted to increase with 1.3 to 4.3 C by 2100. El Nino events have showed that along the coastal zone and in the center of Surinam, most months (>50%) during the year are drier than normal (88 to 316 mm), while in the west part of Surinam, most months (>50%) are wetter than normal (110 to 220 mm). La Nina events have showed that over entire Surinam, most of the months are wetter than normal (19 to 122 mm), with respect to the minimum rainfall. It can be concluded that the changes in rainfall due to El Nino and La Nina events may have significant impacts on the design, planning and management of water resources systems in Surinam and should therefore be incorporated in future water resources planning. (Author)

  11. Drought Trends and Temperature Influence in Zhanghe River Basin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bakhtawar Wagan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Our study area is one of the semiarid region of the China with under water stress condition that causes economic damage. The main objective of this study is to apply standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI and to use linear regression to calculate drought conditions in the study area. For this purpose, data from 1980 to 2010 was analyzed at different (1, 6, 12, and 24 months time scales. Results depicted both dry and wet periods in the study area; occurrence of dry span with different frequency and magnitude was increased over last decades (2000–2010 at most of the stations. Statistical results demonstrated that temperature was decreased in the 1st decade in most of stations but in two decades from 1990 to 2000 and 2001 to 2010, temperature was increased except in Changzhi station. These results could be a future reference for developing information programs about monitoring and early drought information, planning of existing reservoirs, and management of water resources under climate conditions.

  12. Projections of Seasonal Patterns in Temperature- Related Deaths for Manhattan, New York

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Tiantian; Horton, Radley M.; Kinney, Patrick L.

    2013-01-01

    Global average temperatures have been rising for the past half-century, and the warming trend has accelerated in recent decades. Further warming is expected over the next few decades, with significant regional variations. These warming trends will probably result in more frequent, intense and persistent periods of hot temperatures in summer, and generally higher temperatures in winter. Daily death counts in cities increase markedly when temperatures reach levels that are very high relative to what is normal in a given location. Relatively cold temperatures also seem to carry risk. Rising temperatures may result in more heat-related mortality but may also reduce cold-related mortality, and the net impact on annual mortality remains uncertain. Here we use 16 downscaled global climate models and two emissions scenarios to estimate present and future seasonal patterns in temperature-related mortality in Manhattan, New York. All 32 projections yielded warm-season increases and cold-season decreases in temperature-related mortality, with positive net annual temperature-related deaths in all cases. Monthly analyses showed that the largest percentage increases may occur in May and September. These results suggest that, over a range of models and scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions, increases in heat-related mortality could outweigh reductions in cold-related mortality, with shifting seasonal patterns.

  13. Extracting and Analyzing the Warming Trend in Global and Hemispheric Temperatures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Estrada, Francisco; Perron, Pierre

    2017-01-01

    This article offers an updated and extended attribution analysis based on recently published versions of temperature and forcing datasets. It shows that both temperature and radiative forcing variables can be best represented as trend stationary processes with structural changes occurring in the

  14. Are Simulated and Observed Twentieth Century Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Trends Significant Relative to Internal Variability?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coats, S.; Karnauskas, K. B.

    2017-10-01

    Historical trends in the tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient (SST gradient) are analyzed herein using 41 climate models (83 simulations) and 5 observational data sets. A linear inverse model is trained on each simulation and observational data set to assess if trends in the SST gradient are significant relative to the stationary statistics of internal variability, as would suggest an important role for external forcings such as anthropogenic greenhouse gasses. None of the 83 simulations have a positive trend in the SST gradient, a strengthening of the climatological SST gradient with more warming in the western than eastern tropical Pacific, as large as the mean trend across the five observational data sets. If the observed trends are anthropogenically forced, this discrepancy suggests that state-of-the-art climate models are not capturing the observed response of the tropical Pacific to anthropogenic forcing, with serious implications for confidence in future climate projections. There are caveats to this interpretation, however, as some climate models have a significant strengthening of the SST gradient between 1900 and 2013 Common Era, though smaller in magnitude than the observational data sets, and the strengthening in three out of five observational data sets is insignificant. When combined with observational uncertainties and the possibility of centennial time scale internal variability not sampled by the linear inverse model, this suggests that confident validation of anthropogenic SST gradient trends in climate models will require further emergence of anthropogenic trends. Regardless, the differences in SST gradient trends between climate models and observational data sets are concerning and motivate the need for process-level validation of the atmosphere-ocean dynamics relevant to climate change in the tropical Pacific.

  15. Trend Analysis of Monthly and Annual Temperature Series of Quetta, Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farhat Iqbal

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The monthly average temperature series of Quetta – Pakistan from 1950 – 2000 is examined. A straight line is fitted to the data and seasonal variation and trend in temperature for each month of the year were obtained. An overall model is constructed as large variations in the monthly slopes were observed. In order to describe the seasonal pattern and trend in temperature, corresponding to the different months, both sine/cosine waves and sine/cosine waves multiplied by the time were included in the model as independent variables. The lag-1 autocorrelation was found in the residual of the model and hence another model was fitted to the pre-whiten series that shows a good fit ( and is free from correlated residuals. Both parametric and non-parametric tests applied to each month temperature show significant trend in all months except February and March.

  16.  Project Management as a Global Trend for Organization Work

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kampf, Constance

    in multination and global companies, understanding the power of visual rhetoric, genre and writing processes in the context of project management documentation can be an advantage for technical communicators.  In addition, project management tools and online documentation spaces are objects which cross...... Project Management as a Global Trend for Organization Work: Implications for Technical Communication Project Management tools and processes offer a visual approach to producing knowledge about a project in order to complete it.  As project management practices are used with increasing frequency......-cultural teams use to function.  This presentation will explore the potential of Project Management to be tightly integrated in Technical Communication curricula through a communications approach to project management.  Questions for discussion include: How tightly is project management integrated into different...

  17. Temperature-dependent particle-number projected moment of inertia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allal, N. H.; Fellah, M.; Benhamouda, N.; Oudih, M. R.

    2008-01-01

    Expressions of the parallel and perpendicular temperature-dependent particle-number projected nuclear moment of inertia have been established by means of a discrete projection method. They generalize that of the FTBCS method and are well adapted to numerical computation. The effects of particle-number fluctuations have been numerically studied for some even-even actinide nuclei by using the single-particle energies and eigenstates of a deformed Woods-Saxon mean field. It has been shown that the parallel moment of inertia is practically not modified by the use of the projection method. In contrast, the discrepancy between the projected and FTBCS perpendicular moment of inertia values may reach 5%. Moreover, the particle-number fluctuation effects vary not only as a function of the temperature but also as a function of the deformation for a given temperature. This is not the case for the system energy

  18. Recent trends of projection X-ray microscopy in Japan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yada, K. [Tohken CO., LTD. 2-27-7 Tamagawa Chofu, Tokyo 182-0025 (Japan)], E-mail: kyada@tohken.co.jp

    2009-08-15

    Recent activities of projection X-ray microscopy in Japan are reviewed. 1) By employing high brightness Schottky electron gun, resolution of 0.1 {mu}m is realized by Tohken CO. group and some application examples are shown. 2) Deblurring of Fresnel diffracted image formed by synchrotron orbital radiation (SOR) X-rays is successfully tried by Chiba University group. Remarkable Fresnel fringes appearing at HeLa cell are mostly reconstructed by an iteration method. 3) Element analysis is carried out by Meiji University group utilizing absorption-edge characteristics between two kinds of X-ray targets without X-ray spectrometer. Actually, Cu and Ni targets are used with an inter-changeable system for elemental analysis of Fe{sub 2}O{sub 3} particles and iron component in a mosquito larva.

  19. An analysis of surface air temperature trends and variability along the Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franquist, Eric S.

    Climate change is difficult to study in mountainous regions such as the Andes since steep changes in elevation cannot always be resolved by climate models. However, it is important to examine temperature trends in this region as rises in surface air temperature are leading to the melting of tropical glaciers. Local communities rely on the glacier-fed streamflow to get their water for drinking, irrigation, and livestock. Moreover, communities also rely on the tourism of hikers who come to the region to view the glaciers. As the temperatures increase, these glaciers are no longer in equilibrium with their current climate and are receding rapidly and decreasing the streamflow. This thesis examines surface air temperature from 858 weather stations across Ecuador, Peru, and Chile in order to analyze changes in trends and variability. Three time periods were studied: 1961--1990, 1971--2000, and 1981--2010. The greatest warming occurred during the period of 1971--2000 with 92% of the stations experiencing positive trends with a mean of 0.24°C/decade. There was a clear shift toward cooler temperatures at all latitudes and below elevations of 500 m during the most recent time period studied (1981--2010). Station temperatures were more strongly correlated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), than the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). A principal component analysis confirmed ENSO as the main contributor of variability with the most influence in the lower latitudes. There were clear multidecadal changes in correlation strength for the PDO. The PDO contributed the most to the increases in station temperature trends during the 1961--1990 period, consistent with the PDO shift to the positive phase in the middle of this period. There were many strong positive trends at individual stations during the 1971--2000 period; however, these trends could not fully be attributed to ENSO, PDO, or SAM, indicating anthropogenic effects of

  20. The paradox of cooling streams in a warming world: Regional climate trends do not parallel variable local trends in stream temperature in the Pacific continental United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri; Dunham, Jason B.; Haggerty, Roy; Hockman-Wert, David

    2012-01-01

    Temperature is a fundamentally important driver of ecosystem processes in streams. Recent warming of terrestrial climates around the globe has motivated concern about consequent increases in stream temperature. More specifically, observed trends of increasing air temperature and declining stream flow are widely believed to result in corresponding increases in stream temperature. Here, we examined the evidence for this using long-term stream temperature data from minimally and highly human-impacted sites located across the Pacific continental United States. Based on hypothesized climate impacts, we predicted that we should find warming trends in the maximum, mean and minimum temperatures, as well as increasing variability over time. These predictions were not fully realized. Warming trends were most prevalent in a small subset of locations with longer time series beginning in the 1950s. More recent series of observations (1987-2009) exhibited fewer warming trends and more cooling trends in both minimally and highly human-influenced systems. Trends in variability were much less evident, regardless of the length of time series. Based on these findings, we conclude that our perspective of climate impacts on stream temperatures is clouded considerably by a lack of long-termdata on minimally impacted streams, and biased spatio-temporal representation of existing time series. Overall our results highlight the need to develop more mechanistic, process-based understanding of linkages between climate change, other human impacts and stream temperature, and to deploy sensor networks that will provide better information on trends in stream temperatures in the future.

  1. Temperature and Heat-Related Mortality Trends in the Sonoran and Mojave Desert Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Polioptro F. Martinez-Austria

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Extreme temperatures and heat wave trends in five cities within the Sonoran Desert region (e.g., Tucson and Phoenix, Arizona, in the United States and Ciudad Obregon and San Luis Rio Colorado, Sonora; and Mexicali, Baja California, in Mexico and one city within the Mojave Desert region (e.g., Las Vegas, Nevada were assessed using field data collected from 1950 to 2014. Instead of being selected by watershed, the cities were selected because they are part of the same arid climatic region. The data were analyzed for maximum temperature increases and the trends were confirmed statistically using Spearman’s nonparametric test. Temperature trends were correlated with the mortality information related with extreme heat events in the region. The results showed a clear trend of increasing maximum temperatures during the months of June, July, and August for five of the six cities and statically confirmed using Spearman’s rho values. Las Vegas was the only city where the temperature increase was not confirmed using Spearman’s test, probably because it is geographically located outside of the Sonoran Desert or because of its proximity to the Hoover Dam. The relationship between mortality and temperature was analyzed for the cities of Mexicali, Mexico and Phoenix. Arizona.

  2. Ischaemic heart disease deaths in Brazil: current trends, regional disparities and future projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baena, Cristina P; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Schio, Nicolle Amboni; Sabbag, Ary Elias; Guarita-Souza, Luiz Cesar; Olandoski, Marcia; Franco, Oscar H; Faria-Neto, José Rocha

    2013-09-01

    To quantify the trend of ischaemic heart disease (IHD) deaths in Brazil during the last decade (2000-2010) for various population characteristics and to forecast the upcoming mortality trends across regions in Brazil until the year 2015. Nationwide comparative observational study. The population studied encompassed all adult residents (≥ 20 years) living in five Brazilian regions between 2000 and 2010. Demographic, economic and mortality data were obtained from Brazilian National Mortality Data System and National Applied Economics Research Institute. Subnotified deaths were redistributed proportionally to IHD deaths. Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) per 100 000 inhabitants, by sex and region, were calculated employing a standard Brazilian population and constructing multivariate regression models to quantify and to project temporal trends. Absolute numbers of death due to IHD and region-specific death rates in Brazil by age and sex. During the study period, 627 786 men and 452 690 women died due to IHD in Brazil. ASMR trends across all regions for men and women converged, driven by a declining trend in the South and Southeast and an opposite incline in the North and Northeast (p < 0.05). Future projections demonstrated potential widening of the observed North-South gap in coming years. The IHD death trend in Brazil has changed from a decline to a stagnant state. However, a significant discrepancy in mortality trends exists between the northern and southern regions, which is likely to widen further. Reappraisal of the public health policies tailored to populations with diverse socioeconomic structures is urgently required.

  3. Temperature Trend Detection in Upper Indus Basin by Using Mann-Kendall Test

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ateeq Ur Rauf

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Global warming and Climate change are commonly acknowledged as the most noteworthy environmental quandary the world is undergoing today. Contemporary studies have revealed that the Earth’s surface air temperature has augmented by 0.6°C – 0.8°C in the course of the 20th century, together with alterations in the hydrological cycle. This study focuses on detecting trends in seasonal temperature for the five selected stations in the Upper Indus Basin. The Mann-Kendall test was run at 5% significance level on time series data for each of the five stations during the time period, 1985 to 2014. The Standard Test Statistic (Zs indicates the presence of trend and whether it is increasing or decreasing. The analysis showed an increasing trend in mean monthly temperature at Astore, Gilgit and Gupiz in March and a decreasing trend for Astore, Drosh, Gilgit and Skardu in September. Gilgit and Gupiz showed unexpected increasing trend in October. This study concludes that the temperature starts increasing in March and stays elevated till the month of June and starts rising again in October thus resulting in expansion of summer season and prolonged glacial melting.

  4. Recent trends, drivers, and projections of carbon cycle processes in forests and grasslands of North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domke, G. M.; Williams, C. A.; Birdsey, R.; Pendall, E.

    2017-12-01

    In North America forest and grassland ecosystems play a major role in the carbon cycle. Here we present the latest trends and projections of United States and North American carbon cycle processes, stocks, and flows in the context of interactions with global scale budgets and climate change impacts in managed and unmanaged grassland and forest ecosystems. We describe recent trends in natural and anthropogenic disturbances in these ecosystems as well as the carbon dynamics associated with land use and land cover change. We also highlight carbon management science and tools for informing decisions and opportunities for improving carbon measurements, observations, and projections in forests and grasslands.

  5. U.S. Coastal Flood Damage Reduction Projects: Federal Authorization and Investment Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, N. T.

    2015-12-01

    The 2015 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency report Climate Change in the United States: Benefits of Global Action estimated the potential cumulative future economic impacts of storm surge and sea-level rise on U.S. coasts during this century at 5 trillion (2014 dollars) if no adaptation measures are implemented. These impacts drop to 0.8 trillion if investments are made in cost-effective adaptations and protections. Awareness of flood risk and its long-term fiscal impact historically has proven insufficient to motivate pre-disaster land use changes and investments in mitigation and protection. While many adaptations and protections fall largely under state and local authority, some stakeholders are interested in federal coastal flood protection projects, including projects by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Since the 1950s, Congress has authorized the Corps to construct specific coastal projects. The broad vision, strategy, and priorities for the federal role in coastal flood damage reduction projects nonetheless remain ill-defined. This research analyzes (1) the authorization and appropriations trends for Corps coastal storm damage reduction projects, and (2) how Corps feasibility studies account for and address coastal flood hazards. Identified trends include: emergency appropriations for storm-damaged areas outstrip annual investments in coastal flood projects; the rate at which projects are congressionally approved for construction outpaces the rate at which construction is funded; and how coastal protection projects are evaluated in Corps feasibility studies shows variation and change in agency practices. These trends have consequences; they affect public and local expectations when projects begin providing protection benefits, and may influence investments in other adaptation measures. These trends also raise questions for policymakers at all levels and for scientists and practitioners interested in coastal flood resilience.

  6. Trends in Mean Annual Minimum and Maximum Near Surface Temperature in Nairobi City, Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Lukoye Makokha

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the long-term urban modification of mean annual conditions of near surface temperature in Nairobi City. Data from four weather stations situated in Nairobi were collected from the Kenya Meteorological Department for the period from 1966 to 1999 inclusive. The data included mean annual maximum and minimum temperatures, and was first subjected to homogeneity test before analysis. Both linear regression and Mann-Kendall rank test were used to discern the mean annual trends. Results show that the change of temperature over the thirty-four years study period is higher for minimum temperature than maximum temperature. The warming trends began earlier and are more significant at the urban stations than is the case at the sub-urban stations, an indication of the spread of urbanisation from the built-up Central Business District (CBD to the suburbs. The established significant warming trends in minimum temperature, which are likely to reach higher proportions in future, pose serious challenges on climate and urban planning of the city. In particular the effect of increased minimum temperature on human physiological comfort, building and urban design, wind circulation and air pollution needs to be incorporated in future urban planning programmes of the city.

  7. Trends in mean maximum temperature, mean minimum temperature and mean relative humidity for Lautoka, Fiji during 2003 – 2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syed S. Ghani

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The current work observes the trends in Lautoka’s temperature and relative humidity during the period 2003 – 2013, which were analyzed using the recently updated data obtained from Fiji Meteorological Services (FMS. Four elements, mean maximum temperature, mean minimum temperature along with diurnal temperature range (DTR and mean relative humidity are investigated. From 2003–2013, the annual mean temperature has been enhanced between 0.02 and 0.080C. The heating is more in minimum temperature than in maximum temperature, resulting in a decrease of diurnal temperature range. The statistically significant increase was mostly seen during the summer months of December and January. Mean Relative Humidity has also increased from 3% to 8%. The bases of abnormal climate conditions are also studied. These bases were defined with temperature or humidity anomalies in their appropriate time sequences. These established the observed findings and exhibited that climate has been becoming gradually damper and heater throughout Lautoka during this period. While we are only at an initial phase in the probable inclinations of temperature changes, ecological reactions to recent climate change are already evidently noticeable. So it is proposed that it would be easier to identify climate alteration in a small island nation like Fiji.

  8. Long-term trends in stratospheric ozone, temperature, and water vapor over the Indian region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. T. Akhil Raj

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available We have investigated the long-term trends in and variabilities of stratospheric ozone, water vapor and temperature over the Indian monsoon region using the long-term data constructed from multi-satellite (Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS MLS and HALOE, 1993–2005, Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS, 2004–2015, Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER, 2002–2015 on board TIMED (Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics Dynamics observations covering the period 1993–2015. We have selected two locations, namely, Trivandrum (8.4° N, 76.9° E and New Delhi (28° N, 77° E, covering northern and southern parts of the Indian region. We also used observations from another station, Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E, for comparison. A decreasing trend in ozone associated with NOx chemistry in the tropical middle stratosphere is found, and the trend turned to positive in the upper stratosphere. Temperature shows a cooling trend in the stratosphere, with a maximum around 37 km over Trivandrum (−1.71 ± 0.49 K decade−1 and New Delhi (−1.15 ± 0.55 K decade−1. The observed cooling trend in the stratosphere over Trivandrum and New Delhi is consistent with Gadanki lidar observations during 1998–2011. The water vapor shows a decreasing trend in the lower stratosphere and an increasing trend in the middle and upper stratosphere. A good correlation between N2O and O3 is found in the middle stratosphere (∼ 10 hPa and poor correlation in the lower stratosphere. There is not much regional difference in the water vapor and temperature trends. However, upper stratospheric ozone trends over Trivandrum and New Delhi are different. The trend analysis carried out by varying the initial year has shown significant changes in the estimated trend.

  9. Sensitivity Analysis of Arctic Sea Ice Extent Trends and Statistical Projections Using Satellite Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ge Peng

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available An ice-free Arctic summer would have pronounced impacts on global climate, coastal habitats, national security, and the shipping industry. Rapid and accelerated Arctic sea ice loss has placed the reality of an ice-free Arctic summer even closer to the present day. Accurate projection of the first Arctic ice-free summer year is extremely important for business planning and climate change mitigation, but the projection can be affected by many factors. Using an inter-calibrated satellite sea ice product, this article examines the sensitivity of decadal trends of Arctic sea ice extent and statistical projections of the first occurrence of an ice-free Arctic summer. The projection based on the linear trend of the last 20 years of data places the first Arctic ice-free summer year at 2036, 12 years earlier compared to that of the trend over the last 30 years. The results from a sensitivity analysis of six commonly used curve-fitting models show that the projected timings of the first Arctic ice-free summer year tend to be earlier for exponential, Gompertz, quadratic, and linear with lag fittings, and later for linear and log fittings. Projections of the first Arctic ice-free summer year by all six statistical models appear to converge to the 2037 ± 6 timeframe, with a spread of 17 years, and the earliest first ice-free Arctic summer year at 2031.

  10. Investigation of Breakpoint and Trend of Daily Air Temperature Range for Mashhad, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    shideh shams

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Air temperature as an important climatic factor can influence variability and distribution of other climatic parameters. Therefore, tracking the changes in air temperature is a popular procedure in climate change studies.. According to the national academy in the last decade, global temperature has raised 0.4 to 0.8⁰C. Instrumental records show that, with the exception of 1998, the 10 warmest year (during the last 150 years, occurred since 2000, and 2014 was the warmest year. Investigation of maximum and minimum air temperature temporal trend indicates that these two parameters behave differently over time. It has been shown that the minimum air temperature raises noticeably more than the maximum air temperature, which causes a reduction in the difference of maximum and minimum daily air temperature (daily temperature range, DTR. There are several factors that have an influence on reducing DTR such as: Urban development, farms’ irrigation and desertification. It has been shown that DTR reduction occurs mostly during winter and is less frequent during summer, which shows the season’s effect on the temperature trend. Considering the significant effects of the climatological factors on economic and agricultural management issues, the aim of this study is to investigate daily air temperature range for yearly, seasonal and monthly time scales, using available statistical methods. Materials and Methods: Daily maximum and minimum air temperature records (from 1950 to 2010 were obtained from Mashhad Meteorological Organization. In order to control the quality of daily Tmax and Tmin data, four different types of quality controls were applied. First of all, gross errors were checked. In this step maximum and minimum air temperature data exceeding unlikely air temperature values, were eliminated from data series. Second, data tolerance was checked by searching for periods longer than a certain number of consecutive days with exactly the

  11. Research Trends on Defect and Life Assessment of High Temperature Structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Hyeong Yeon; Lee Jae Han

    2008-01-01

    This report presents the analysis on the state-of-the-art research trends on defect assessment and life evaluation of high temperature structure based on the papers presented in the two international conferences of ASME PVP 2007 / CREEP 8 which was held in 2007 and ICFDSM VI(International Conference on Fatigue Damage of Structural Materials VI) which was held in 2006

  12. The Role of the Mean State of Arctic Sea Ice on Near-Surface Temperature Trends

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Linden, van der E.C.; Bintanja, R.; Hazeleger, W.; Katsman, C.A.

    2014-01-01

    Century-scale global near-surface temperature trends in response to rising greenhouse gas concentrations in climate models vary by almost a factor of 2, with greatest intermodel spread in the Arctic region where sea ice is a key climate component. Three factors contribute to the intermodel spread:

  13. Monitoring sea level and sea surface temperature trends from ERS satellites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Knudsen, Per; Beckley, B.

    2002-01-01

    Data from the two ESA satellites ERS-1 and ERS-2 are used in global and regional analysis of sea level and sea surface temperature trends over the last, 7.8 years. T he ERS satellites and in the future the ENVISAT satellite provide unique opportunity for monitoring both changes in sea level and sea...

  14. Trends in low-temperature water–gas shift reactivity on transition metals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schumacher, Nana Maria Pii; Boisen, Astrid; Dahl, Søren

    2005-01-01

    Low-temperature water–gas shift reactivity trends on transition metals were investigated with the use of a microkinetic model based on a redox mechanism. It is established that the adsorption energies for carbon monoxide and oxygen can describe to a large extent changes in the remaining activation...

  15. Variability and trends of wet season temperature in the Sudano-Sahelian zone and relationships with precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oueslati, Boutheina; Camberlin, Pierre; Zoungrana, Joël; Roucou, Pascal; Diallo, Saliou

    2018-02-01

    The relationships between precipitation and temperature in the central Sudano-Sahelian belt are investigated by analyzing 50 years (1959-2008) of observed temperature (Tx and Tn) and rainfall variations. At daily time-scale, both Tx and Tn show a marked decrease as a response to rainfall occurrence, with a strongest departure from normal 1 day after the rainfall event (-0.5 to -2.5 °C depending on the month). The cooling is slightly larger when heavy rainfall events (>5 mm) are considered. The temperature anomalies weaken after the rainfall event, but are still significant several days later. The physical mechanisms accounting for the temperature response to precipitation are analysed. The Tx drop is accounted for by reduced incoming solar radiation associated with increased cloud cover and increased surface evaporation following surface moistening. The effect of evaporation becomes dominant a few days after the rainfall event. The reduced daytime heat storage and the subsequent sensible heat flux result in a later negative Tn anomaly. The effect of rainfall variations on temperature is significant for long-term warming trends. The rainfall decrease experienced between 1959 and 2008 accounts for a rainy season Tx increase of 0.15 to 0.3 °C, out of a total Tx increase of 1.3 to 1.5 °C. These results have strong implications on the assessment of future temperature changes. The dampening or amplifying effects of precipitation are determined by the sign of future precipitation trends. Confidence on temperature changes under global warming partly depend on the robustness of precipitation projections.

  16. Can air temperature be used to project influences of climate change on stream temperature?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arismendi, Ivan; Safeeq, Mohammad; Dunham, Jason B.; Johnson, Sherri L.

    2014-01-01

    Worldwide, lack of data on stream temperature has motivated the use of regression-based statistical models to predict stream temperatures based on more widely available data on air temperatures. Such models have been widely applied to project responses of stream temperatures under climate change, but the performance of these models has not been fully evaluated. To address this knowledge gap, we examined the performance of two widely used linear and nonlinear regression models that predict stream temperatures based on air temperatures. We evaluated model performance and temporal stability of model parameters in a suite of regulated and unregulated streams with 11–44 years of stream temperature data. Although such models may have validity when predicting stream temperatures within the span of time that corresponds to the data used to develop them, model predictions did not transfer well to other time periods. Validation of model predictions of most recent stream temperatures, based on air temperature–stream temperature relationships from previous time periods often showed poor performance when compared with observed stream temperatures. Overall, model predictions were less robust in regulated streams and they frequently failed in detecting the coldest and warmest temperatures within all sites. In many cases, the magnitude of errors in these predictions falls within a range that equals or exceeds the magnitude of future projections of climate-related changes in stream temperatures reported for the region we studied (between 0.5 and 3.0 °C by 2080). The limited ability of regression-based statistical models to accurately project stream temperatures over time likely stems from the fact that underlying processes at play, namely the heat budgets of air and water, are distinctive in each medium and vary among localities and through time.

  17. The paradox of cooling streams in a warming world: regional climate trends do not parallel variable local trends in stream temperature in the Pacific continental United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivan Arismendi; Sherri L. Johnson; Jason B. Dunham; Roy Haggerty

    2012-01-01

    Temperature is a fundamentally important driver of ecosystem processes in streams. Recent warming of terrestrial climates around the globe has motivated concern about consequent increases in stream temperature. More specifically, observed trends of increasing air temperature and declining stream flow are widely believed to result in corresponding increases in stream...

  18. Recent Trends of the Tropical Hydrological Cycle Inferred from Global Precipitation Climatology Project and International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Y. P.; Xu, Kuan-Man; Sud, Y. C.; Betts, A. K.

    2011-01-01

    Scores of modeling studies have shown that increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere impact the global hydrologic cycle; however, disagreements on regional scales are large, and thus the simulated trends of such impacts, even for regions as large as the tropics, remain uncertain. The present investigation attempts to examine such trends in the observations using satellite data products comprising Global Precipitation Climatology Project precipitation and International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project cloud and radiation. Specifically, evolving trends of the tropical hydrological cycle over the last 20-30 years were identified and analyzed. The results show (1) intensification of tropical precipitation in the rising regions of the Walker and Hadley circulations and weakening over the sinking regions of the associated overturning circulation; (2) poleward shift of the subtropical dry zones (up to 2deg/decade in June-July-August (JJA) in the Northern Hemisphere and 0.3-0.7deg/decade in June-July-August and September-October-November in the Southern Hemisphere) consistent with an overall broadening of the Hadley circulation; and (3) significant poleward migration (0.9-1.7deg/decade) of cloud boundaries of Hadley cell and plausible narrowing of the high cloudiness in the Intertropical Convergence Zone region in some seasons. These results support findings of some of the previous studies that showed strengthening of the tropical hydrological cycle and expansion of the Hadley cell that are potentially related to the recent global warming trends.

  19. Maximum And Minimum Temperature Trends In Mexico For The Last 31 Years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romero-Centeno, R.; Zavala-Hidalgo, J.; Allende Arandia, M. E.; Carrasco-Mijarez, N.; Calderon-Bustamante, O.

    2013-05-01

    Based on high-resolution (1') daily maps of the maximum and minimum temperatures in Mexico, an analysis of the last 31-year trends is performed. The maps were generated using all the available information from more than 5,000 stations of the Mexican Weather Service (Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, SMN) for the period 1979-2009, along with data from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). The data processing procedure includes a quality control step, in order to eliminate erroneous daily data, and make use of a high-resolution digital elevation model (from GEBCO), the relationship between air temperature and elevation by means of the average environmental lapse rate, and interpolation algorithms (linear and inverse-distance weighting). Based on the monthly gridded maps for the mentioned period, the maximum and minimum temperature trends calculated by least-squares linear regression and their statistical significance are obtained and discussed.

  20. Long-term temperature trends and variability on Spitsbergen: the extended Svalbard Airport temperature series, 1898–2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Øyvind Nordli

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the few long instrumental records available for the Arctic is the Svalbard Airport composite series that hitherto began in 1911, with observations made on Spitsbergen, the largest island in the Svalbard Archipelago. This record has now been extended to 1898 with the inclusion of observations made by hunting and scientific expeditions. Temperature has been observed almost continuously in Svalbard since 1898, although at different sites. It has therefore been possible to create one composite series for Svalbard Airport covering the period 1898–2012, and this valuable new record is presented here. The series reveals large temperature variability on Spitsbergen, with the early 20th century warming as one striking feature: an abrupt change from the cold 1910s to the local maxima of the 1930s and 1950s. With the inclusion of the new data it is possible to show that the 1910s were colder than the years at the start of the series. From the 1960s, temperatures have increased, so the present temperature level is significantly higher than at any earlier period in the instrumental history. For the entire period, and for all seasons, there are positive, statistically significant trends. Regarding the annual mean, the total trend is 2.6°C/century, whereas the largest trend is in spring, at 3.9°C/century. In Europe, it is the Svalbard Archipelago that has experienced the greatest temperature increase during the latest three decades. The composite series may be downloaded from the home page of the Norwegian Meteorological Institute and should be used with reference to the present article.

  1. Urban and peri-urban precipitation and air temperature trends in mega cities of the world using multiple trend analysis methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ajaaj, Aws A.; Mishra, Ashok K.; Khan, Abdul A.

    2018-04-01

    Urbanization plays an important role in altering local to regional climate. In this study, the trends in precipitation and the air temperature were investigated for urban and peri-urban areas of 18 mega cities selected from six continents (representing a wide range of climatic patterns). Multiple statistical tests were used to examine long-term trends in annual and seasonal precipitation and air temperature for the selected cities. The urban and peri-urban areas were classified based on the percentage of land imperviousness. Through this study, it was evident that removal of the lag-k serial correlation caused a reduction of approximately 20 to 30% in significant trend observability for temperature and precipitation data. This observation suggests that appropriate trend analysis methodology for climate studies is necessary. Additionally, about 70% of the urban areas showed higher positive air temperature trends, compared with peri-urban areas. There were not clear trend signatures (i.e., mix of increase or decrease) when comparing urban vs peri-urban precipitation in each selected city. Overall, cities located in dry areas, for example, in Africa, southern parts of North America, and Eastern Asia, showed a decrease in annual and seasonal precipitation, while wetter conditions were favorable for cities located in wet regions such as, southeastern South America, eastern North America, and northern Europe. A positive relationship was observed between decadal trends of annual/seasonal air temperature and precipitation for all urban and peri-urban areas, with a higher rate being observed for urban areas.

  2. Spatio-temporal long-term (1950-2009) temperature trend analysis in North Carolina, United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Jha, Manoj K.; Mekonnen, Ademe

    2015-04-01

    This study analyzed long-term (1950-2009) annual and seasonal time series data of maximum and minimum temperature from 249 uniformly distributed stations across the State of North Carolina, United States. The Mann-Kendall and Theil-Sen approach were applied to quantify the significance and magnitude of trend, respectively. A pre-whitening technique was applied to eliminate the effect of lag-1 serial correlation. For most stations over the period of the past 60 years, the difference between minimum and maximum temperatures was found decreasing with an overall increasing trend in the mean temperature. However, significant trends (confidence level ≥ 95 %) in the mean temperature analysis were detected only in 20, 3, 23, and 20 % of the stations in summer, winter, autumn, and spring, respectively. The magnitude of the highest warming trend in minimum temperature and the highest cooling trend in maximum temperature was +0.073 °C/year in the autumn season and -0.12 °C/year in the summer season, respectively. Additional analysis in mean temperature trend was conducted on three regions of North Carolina (mountain, piedmont, and coastal). The results revealed a warming trend for the coastal zone, a cooling trend for the mountain zone, and no distinct trend for the piedmont zone. The Sequential Mann-Kendall test results indicated that the significant increasing trends in minimum temperature and decreasing trend in maximum temperature had begun around 1970 and 1960 (change point), respectively, in most of the stations. Finally, the comparison between mean surface air temperature (SAT) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) concluded that the variability and trend in SAT can be explained partially by the NAO index for North Carolina.

  3. Diurnal temperature range trend over North Carolina and the associated mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Mekonnen, Ademe; Jha, Manoj K.

    2015-06-01

    This study seeks to investigate the variability and presence of trend in the diurnal surface air temperature range (DTR) over North Carolina (NC) for the period 1950-2009. The significance trend test and the magnitude of trends were determined using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and the Theil-Sen approach, respectively. Statewide significant trends (p < 0.05) of decreasing DTR were found in all seasons and annually during the analysis period. Highest (lowest) temporal DTR trends of magnitude - 0.19 (- 0.031) °C/decade were found in summer (winter). Potential mechanisms for the presence/absence of trend in DTR have been highlighted. Historical data sets of the three main moisture components (precipitation, total cloud cover (TCC), and soil moisture) and the two major atmospheric circulation modes (North Atlantic Oscillation and Southern Oscillation) were used for correlation analysis. The DTRs were found to be negatively correlated with the precipitation, TCC and soil moisture across the state for all the seasons and annual basis. It appears that the moisture components related better to the DTR than to the atmospheric circulation modes.

  4. Revisiting Southern Hemisphere polar stratospheric temperature trends in WACCM: The role of dynamical forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvo, N.; Garcia, R. R.; Kinnison, D. E.

    2017-04-01

    The latest version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), which includes a new chemistry scheme and an updated parameterization of orographic gravity waves, produces temperature trends in the Antarctic lower stratosphere in excellent agreement with radiosonde observations for 1969-1998 as regards magnitude, location, timing, and persistence. The maximum trend, reached in November at 100 hPa, is -4.4 ± 2.8 K decade-1, which is a third smaller than the largest trend in the previous version of WACCM. Comparison with a simulation without the updated orographic gravity wave parameterization, together with analysis of the model's thermodynamic budget, reveals that the reduced trend is due to the effects of a stronger Brewer-Dobson circulation in the new simulations, which warms the polar cap. The effects are both direct (a trend in adiabatic warming in late spring) and indirect (a smaller trend in ozone, hence a smaller reduction in shortwave heating, due to the warmer environment).

  5. Projections of Rainfall and Temperature from CMIP5 Models over BIMSTEC Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pattnayak, K. C.; Kar, S. C.; Ragi, A. R.

    2014-12-01

    Rainfall and surface temperature are the most important climatic variables in the context of climate change. Thus, these variables simulated from fifth phase of the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) models have been compared against Climatic Research Unit (CRU) observed data and projected for the twenty first century under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios. Results for the seven countries under Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) such as Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand have been examined. Six CMIP5 models namely GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2M, GFDL-ESM2G, HadGEM2-AO, HadGEM2-CC and HadGEM2-ES have been chosen for this study. The study period has been considered is from 1861 to 2100. From this period, initial 145 years i.e. 1861 to 2005 is reference or historical period and the later 95 years i.e. 2005 to 2100 is projected period. The climate change in the projected period has been examined with respect to the reference period. In order to validate the models, the mean annual rainfall and temperature has been compared with CRU over the reference period 1901 to 2005. Comparison reveals that most of the models are able to capture the spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature over most of the regions of BIMSTEC countries. Therefore these model data can be used to study the future changes in the 21st Century. Four out six models shows that the rainfall over Central and North India, Thailand and eastern part of Myanmar shows decreasing trend and Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka shows an increasing trend in both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. In case of temperature, all of the models show an increasing trend over all the BIMSTEC countries in both scenarios, however, the rate of increase is relatively less over Sri Lanka than the other countries. Annual cycles of rainfall and temperature over Bangladesh, Myanmar and Thailand

  6. Project-based production and project management: Findings and trends in research on temporary systems in multiple contexts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tinus Pretorius

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Globalisation is challenging almost every aspect of the political, economic, social and technological environment. Organisations, whether public or private, have to adapt their strategies and operations to stay competitive and efficient. Historically, organisations adopted project-based operations as a mode to stay competitive, although the applications tended to be the oneoff type of operations such as construction and system development projects (Edum-Fotwe & McCaffer, 2000. As the world changed from an industrially driven to a more knowledge driven economy and the pace of continuous change became more intense, organisations adopted a project-based mode of operations on a broader scale. The knowledge economy lead to the creation of many service orientated industries. Organisations started facing portfolios of projects where the nature of these projects differed in technological complexity, urgency, customer value and social impact (Gutjahr & Froeschl, 2013. Based on their experience with more technically orientated projects, organisations focused their attention more intensely on new project management methods, tools and processes and not necessarily on the human and organisational interfaces. This paradigm changed however, especially since the 1980s and more and more organisations adopted temporary organisational forms (Bakker, 2010 in order to improve their competitiveness. The contributions in this special edition of the South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences have a common focus on the importance of the human and organisational interface of project-based operations on project success. The purpose of this concluding article is to analyse the findings and recommendations in these papers and to detect trends and future research opportunities in the field of project-based operations.

  7. High Temperature Properties and Recent Research Trend of Mg-RE Alloys

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nam, Soo Woo [Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-04-15

    For the applications in automotive, aircraft, aerospace, and electronic industries, the lightest structural Mg alloys have received much attention since 2000. There has been some progress for the improvement of the mechanical properties such as room temperature strength, formability and mechanical anisotropy. However, the high temperature strength of Mg alloys is very low to be used for the parts and structures of high temperature conditions. For the last decade, considerable efforts are concentrated for the development of Mg alloys to be used at high temperature. Newly developing Mg-RE alloys are the good examples for the high temperature use. In this regard, this review paper introduces the recent research trends for the development of Mg-RE alloys strengthened with some precipitates and the long period stacking ordered (LPSO) structures related RE elements.

  8. High Temperature Properties and Recent Research Trend of Mg-RE Alloys

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nam, Soo Woo

    2017-01-01

    For the applications in automotive, aircraft, aerospace, and electronic industries, the lightest structural Mg alloys have received much attention since 2000. There has been some progress for the improvement of the mechanical properties such as room temperature strength, formability and mechanical anisotropy. However, the high temperature strength of Mg alloys is very low to be used for the parts and structures of high temperature conditions. For the last decade, considerable efforts are concentrated for the development of Mg alloys to be used at high temperature. Newly developing Mg-RE alloys are the good examples for the high temperature use. In this regard, this review paper introduces the recent research trends for the development of Mg-RE alloys strengthened with some precipitates and the long period stacking ordered (LPSO) structures related RE elements.

  9. Precipitation and temperature trends over central Italy (Abruzzo Region): 1951-2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scorzini, Anna Rita; Leopardi, Maurizio

    2018-02-01

    This study analyses spatial and temporal trends of precipitation and temperatures over Abruzzo Region (central Italy), using historical climatic data from a dense observation network. The results show a general, although not significant, negative trend in the regionally averaged annual precipitation (- 1.8% of the yearly mean rainfall per decade). This reduction is particularly evident in winter, especially at mountain stations (average - 3% change/decade). Despite this general decreasing trend, a partial rainfall recovery is observed after the 1980s. Furthermore, the majority of meteorological stations register a significant warming over the last 60 years, (mean annual temperature increase of + 0.15 °C/decade), which reflects a rise in both minimum and maximum temperatures, with the latter generally increasing at a faster rate. Spring and summer are the seasons which contribute most to the general temperature increase, in particular at high elevation sites, which exhibit a more pronounced warming (+ 0.24 °C/decade). However, this tendency has not been uniform over 1951-2012, but it has been characterised by a cooling phenomenon in the first 30 years (1951-1981), followed by an even stronger warming during the last three decades (1982-2012). Finally, correlations between the climatic variables and the dominant teleconnection patterns in the Mediterranean basin are analysed to identify the potential influence of large-scale atmospheric dynamics on observed trends in Abruzzo. The results highlight the dominant role of the East-Atlantic pattern on seasonal temperatures, while more spatially heterogeneous associations, depending on the complex topography of the region, are identified between winter precipitation and the North Atlantic Oscillation, East-Atlantic and East-Atlantic/Western Russian patterns.

  10. Reassessment of urbanization effect on surface air temperature trends at an urban station of North China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bian, Tao; Ren, Guoyu

    2017-11-01

    Based on a homogenized data set of monthly mean temperature, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature at Shijiazhuang City Meteorological Station (Shijiazhuang station) and four rural meteorological stations selected applying a more sophisticated methodology, we reanalyzed the urbanization effects on annual, seasonal, and monthly mean surface air temperature (SAT) trends for updated time period 1960-2012 at the typical urban station in North China. The results showed that (1) urbanization effects on the long-term trends of annual mean SAT, minimum SAT, and diurnal temperature range (DTR) in the last 53 years reached 0.25, 0.47, and - 0.50 °C/decade, respectively, all statistically significant at the 0.001 confidence level, with the contributions from urbanization effects to the overall long-term trends reaching 67.8, 78.6, and 100%, respectively; (2) the urbanization effects on the trends of seasonal mean SAT, minimum SAT, and DTR were also large and statistically highly significant. Except for November and December, the urbanization effects on monthly mean SAT, minimum SAT, and DTR were also all statistically significant at the 0.05 confidence level; and (3) the annual, seasonal, and monthly mean maximum SAT series at the urban station registered a generally weaker and non-significant urbanization effect. The updated analysis evidenced that our previous work for this same urban station had underestimated the urbanization effect and its contribution to the overall changes in the SAT series. Many similar urban stations were being included in the current national and regional SAT data sets, and the results of this paper further indicated the importance and urgency for paying more attention to the urbanization bias in the monitoring and detection of global and regional SAT change based on the data sets.

  11. The ADAM and EVE project: Heat transfer at ambient temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boltendahl, U.; Harth, R.

    1980-01-01

    In the nuclear research plant at Juelich a new heating system is at present being developed as part of the Nuclear Long-distance Heating Project. Helium is heated up in a high-temperature reactor. The heat chemically converts a gas mixture in a reformer plant (EVE). The gases 'charged' with energy can be transported through tubes over any distance required at ambient temperatures. In a methanisation plant (ADAM) the gases react with one another, releasing the energy in the form of heat which can be used for heating air or water. (orig.) [de

  12. Road structural elements temperature trends diagnostics using sensory system of own design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dudak, Juraj; Gaspar, Gabriel; Sedivy, Stefan; Pepucha, Lubomir; Florkova, Zuzana

    2017-09-01

    A considerable funds is spent for the roads maintenance in large areas during the winter. The road maintenance is significantly affected by the temperature change of the road structure. In remote locations may occur a situation, when it is not clear whether the sanding is actually needed because the lack of information on road conditions. In these cases, the actual road conditions are investigated by a personal inspection or by sending out a gritting vehicle. Here, however, is a risk of unnecessary trip the sanding vehicle. This situation is economically and environmentally unfavorable. The proposed system solves the problem of measuring the temperature profile of the road and the utilization of the predictive model to determine the future development trend of temperature. The system was technically designed as a set of sensors to monitor environmental values such as the temperature of the road, ambient temperature, relative air humidity, solar radiation and atmospheric pressure at the measuring point. An important part of the proposal is prediction model which based on the inputs from sensors and historical measurements can, with some probability, predict temperature trends at the measuring point. The proposed system addresses the economic and environmental aspects of winter road maintenance.

  13. Timescales for determining temperature and dissolved oxygen trends in the Long Island Sound (LIS) estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staniec, Allison; Vlahos, Penny

    2017-12-01

    Long-term time series represent a critical part of the oceanographic community's efforts to discern natural and anthropogenically forced variations in the environment. They provide regular measurements of climate relevant indicators including temperature, oxygen concentrations, and salinity. When evaluating time series, it is essential to isolate long-term trends from autocorrelation in data and noise due to natural variability. Herein we apply a statistical approach, well-established in atmospheric time series, to key parameters in the U.S. east coast's Long Island Sound estuary (LIS). Analysis shows that the LIS time series (established in the early 1990s) is sufficiently long to detect significant trends in physical-chemical parameters including temperature (T) and dissolved oxygen (DO). Over the last two decades, overall (combined surface and deep) LIS T has increased at an average rate of 0.08 ± 0.03 °C yr-1 while overall DO has dropped at an average rate of 0.03 ± 0.01 mg L-1yr-1 since 1994 at the 95% confidence level. This trend is notably faster than the global open ocean T trend (0.01 °C yr-1), as might be expected for a shallower estuarine system. T and DO trends were always significant for the existing time series using four month data increments. Rates of change of DO and T in LIS are strongly correlated and the rate of decrease of DO concentrations is consistent with the expected reduced solubility of DO at these higher temperatures. Thus, changes in T alone, across decadal timescales can account for between 33 and 100% of the observed decrease in DO. This has significant implications for other dissolved gases and the long-term management of LIS hypoxia.

  14. Non-uniform interhemispheric temperature trends over the past 550 years

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duncan, Richard P. [Landcare Research, PO Box 40, Lincoln (New Zealand); Lincoln University, Bio-Protection Research Centre, PO Box 84, Lincoln (New Zealand); Fenwick, Pavla; Palmer, Jonathan G. [Gondwana Tree-ring Laboratory, PO Box 14, Canterbury (New Zealand); McGlone, Matt S. [Landcare Research, PO Box 40, Lincoln (New Zealand); Turney, Chris S.M. [University of Exeter, School of Geography, Exeter (United Kingdom)

    2010-12-15

    The warming trend over the last century in the northern hemisphere (NH) was interrupted by cooling from ad 1940 to 1975, a period during which the southern hemisphere experienced pronounced warming. The cause of these departures from steady warming at multidecadal timescales are unclear; the prevailing explanation is that they are driven by non-uniformity in external forcings but recent models suggest internal climate drivers may play a key role. Paleoclimate datasets can help provide a long-term perspective. Here we use tree-rings to reconstruct New Zealand mean annual temperature over the last 550 years and demonstrate that this has frequently cycled out-of-phase with NH mean annual temperature at a periodicity of around 30-60 years. Hence, observed multidecadal fluctuations around the recent warming trend have precedents in the past, strongly implicating natural climate variation as their cause. We consider the implications of these changes in understanding and modelling future climate change. (orig.)

  15. Managing water, fish and power : trends in environmental regulation of hydropower projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bursey, D.; McLean, J.; Longe, R. [Bull, Housser and Tupper LLP, Vancouver, BC (Canada)

    2009-07-01

    Recent trends in federal legislation related to the environmental impacts of hydroelectric power projects were reviewed. The study focused on a discussion of recent and proposed amendments to the Species at Risk Act, the Fisheries Act, and the Navigable Waters Protection Act. Challenges associated with risk management, the public perception of risk, and the communication of decisions related to the management and protection of aquatic ecosystems were discussed. The Brilliant Expansion Power Project (BRX) examined the interactions with white sturgeon on the Kootenay River in British Columbia (BC). A monitoring program was conducted during the project's construction in order to reduce the risk to sturgeon from blasting. A habitat enhancement feature was also constructed. It was concluded that the mitigation strategies used during the BRX project provide a useful example of innovation and adaptive management. 19 refs.

  16. Temperature changes in Three Gorges Reservoir Area and linkage with Three Gorges Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Zhen; Liang, Shunlin; Feng, Lian; He, Tao; Song, Xiao-Peng; Zhang, Lei

    2017-05-01

    The Three Gorges Project (TGP) is one of the largest hydroelectric projects throughout the world. It has brought many benefits to the society but also led to endless debates about its environmental and climatic impacts. Monitoring the spatiotemporal variations of temperature in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA) is important for understanding the climatic impacts of the TGP. In this study, we used remote sensing-based land surface temperature (LST) and ground-measured air temperature data to investigate temperature changes in the TGRA. Results showed that during the daytime in summer, LST exhibited significant cooling (1-5°C) in the downstream region of the reservoir, whereas LST during the nighttime in winter exhibited significant warming (1-5°C) across the entire reservoir. However, these cooling and warming effects were both locally constrained within 5 km buffer along the reservoir. The changes in air temperature were consistent with those in LST, with 0.67°C cooling in summer and 0.33°C warming in winter. The temperature changes along the reservoir not only resulted from the land-water conversion induced by the dam impounding but were also related to the increase of vegetation cover caused by the ecological restoration projects. Significant warming trends were also found in the upstream of TGRA, especially during the daytime in summer, with up to 5°C for LST and 0.52°C for air temperature. The warming was caused mainly by urban expansion, which was driven in part by the population resettlement of TGP. Based on satellite observations, we investigated the comprehensive climatic impacts of TGP caused by multiple factors.

  17. Photovoltaic System Pricing Trends. Historical, Recent, and Near-Term Projections, 2015 Edition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Feldman, David [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Barbose, Galen [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Margolis, Robert [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bolinger, Mark [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Chung, Donald [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Fu, Ran [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Seel, Joachim [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Davidson, Carolyn [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Darghouth, Naïm [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Wiser, Ryan [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2015-08-25

    This presentation, based on research at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, provides a high-level overview of historical, recent, and projected near-term PV pricing trends in the United States focusing on the installed price of PV systems. It also attempts to provide clarity surrounding the wide variety of potentially conflicting data available about PV system prices. This PowerPoint is the fourth edition from this series.

  18. MORTALITY TRENDS FOR MOST COMMON TYPES OF CANCER IN SILESIA VOIVODESHIP IN SHORT TERM PROJECTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brunon Zemła

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: The incidence of morbidity and mortality of cancers rapidly increase in the world and so it is in case of Poland and Silesia Voivodeship. Therefore an attempt is made to assess this phenomenon in projection scale within Silesia Voivodeship. Materials and methods: The time-trends analysis of the six most common types of cancer have been selected: stomach, colorectal, pancreas and lung (among both genders, prostate (among males and breast (among females. For the period 1990–2008 age standardized mortality rates have been determined. Time-trends in mortality with employment of joinpoint regression have been estimated and depending on trends linear or log-linear regression models were used which set up the base for short-term projection. Results: For the year 2018 projection values of mortality rates among males will drop (with the exception of lung and colorectal cancers. For prostate cancer – the values will be increasing. Among females stomach mortality rates will drop, but again lung cancer mortality rate will double in comparison to data for 1990. Conclusions: 1. The prognostic number of death to 2018 year concern all studied cancer increasing, for exept stomach cancer. 2. Especially will be increasing cancer mortality standardized rates for lung cancer among females and prostate and colorectal cancers among males.

  19. Programmes and projects for high-temperature reactor development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bogusch, Edgar; Hittner, Dominique

    2009-01-01

    An increasing attention has to be recognised worldwide on the development of High-Temperature Reactors (HTR) which has started in Germany and other countries in the 1970ies. While pebble bed reactors with spherical fuel elements have been developed and constructed in Germany, countries such as France, the US and Russia investigated HTR concepts with prismatic block-type fuel elements. The concept of a modular HTR formerly developed by Areva NP was an essential basis for the HTR-10 in China. A pebble bed HTR for electricity production is developed in South Africa. The construction is planned after the completion of the licensing procedure. Also the US is planning an HTR under the NGNP (Next Generation Nuclear Plant) Project. Due to the high temperature level of the helium coolant, the HTR can be used not only for electricity production but also for supply of process heat. Including its inherent safety features the HTR is an attractive candidate for heat supply to various types of plants e.g. for hydrogen production or coal liquefactions. The conceptual design of an HTR with prismatic fuel elements for the cogeneration of electricity and process heat has been developed by Areva NP. On the European scale the HTR development is promoted by the RAPHAEL (ReActor for Process heat, Hydrogen And ELectricity generation) project. RAPHAEL is an Integrated Project of the Euratom 6th Framework Programme for the development of technologies towards a Very High-Temperature Reactor (VHTR) for the production of electricity and heat. It is financed jointly by the European Commission and the partners of the HTR Technology Network (HTR-TN) and coordinated by Areva NP. The RAPHAEL project not only promotes HTR development but also the cooperation with other European projects such as the material programme EXTREMAT. Furthermore HTR technology is investigated in the frame of Generation IV International Forum (GIF). The development of a VHTR with helium temperatures above 900 C for the

  20. SY-101 Rapid Transfer Project Low Temperature Operations Review and Recommendations to Support Lower Temperature Limits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    HICKMAN, G.L.

    2000-01-01

    The lower temperature limit for the 241 SY-101 RAPID transfer project is currently set at 20 F Based on the analysis and recommendations in this document this limit can be lowered to 0 F. Analysis of all structures systems and components (SSCs) indicate that a reduction in operating temperature may be achieved with minor modifications to field-installed equipment. Following implementation of these changes it is recommended that the system requirements be amended to specify a temperature range for transfer or back dilute evolutions of 0 F to 100 F

  1. Recent trends in rainfall and temperature over North West India during 1871-2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saxena, Rani; Mathur, Prasoon

    2018-03-01

    Rainfall and temperature are the most important environmental factors influencing crop growth, development, and yield. The northwestern (NW) part of India is one of the main regions of food grain production of the country. It comprises of six meteorological subdivisions (Haryana, Punjab, West Rajasthan, East Rajasthan, Gujarat and Saurashtra, Kutch and Diu). In this study, attempts were made to study variability and trends in rainfall and temperature during 30-year climate normal periods (CN) and 10-year decadal excess or deficit rainfall frequency during the historical period from 1871 to 2016. The Mann-Kendall and Spearman's rank correlation (Spearman's rho) tests were used to determine significance of trends. Least square linear fitting method was adopted to find out the slopes of the trend lines. The long-term mean annual rainfall over North West India is 587.7 mm (standard deviation of 153.0 mm and coefficient of variation 26.0). There was increasing trend in minimum and maximum temperatures during post monsoon season in entire study period and current climate normal period (1991-2016) due to which the sowing of rabi season crops may be delayed and there may be germination problem too. There was a non-significant decreasing trend in rainfall during monsoon season and an increasing trend in rainfall during post monsoon over North West India during entire study period. During current CN5 (1991-2016), all the subdivision (except the Saurashtra region) showed a decreasing trend in rainfall during monsoon season which is a matter of concern for kharif crops and those rabi crops which are grown as rainfed on conserved soil moisture. The decadal annual and seasonal frequencies of excess and deficit years results revealed that the annual total deficit rainfall years (24) exceeded total excess rainfall years (22) in North West India during the entire study period. While during the current decadal period (2011 to 2016), single year was the excess year and 2 years were

  2. Future risk assessment by estimating historical heat wave trends with projected heat accumulation using SimCLIM climate model in Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasim, Wajid; Amin, Asad; Fahad, Shah; Awais, Muhammad; Khan, Naeem; Mubeen, Muhammad; Wahid, Abdul; Turan, Veysel; Rehman, Muhammad Habibur; Ihsan, Muhammad Zahid; Ahmad, Shakeel; Hussain, Sajjad; Mian, Ishaq Ahmad; Khan, Bushra; Jamal, Yousaf

    2018-06-01

    Climate change has adverse effects at global, regional and local level. Heat wave events have serious contribution for global warming and natural hazards in Pakistan. Historical (1997-2015) heat wave were analyzed over different provinces (Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan) of Pakistan to identify the maximum temperature trend. Heat accumulation in Pakistan were simulated by the General Circulation Model (GCM) combined with 3 GHG (Green House Gases) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (RCP-4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) by using SimCLIM model (statistical downscaling model for future trend projections). Heat accumulation was projected for year 2030, 2060, and 2090 for seasonal and annual analysis in Pakistan. Heat accumulation were projected to increase by the baseline year (1995) was represented in percentage change. Projection shows that Sindh and southern Punjab was mostly affected by heat accumulation. This study identified the rising trend of heat wave over the period (1997-2015) for Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan (provinces of Pakistan), which identified that most of the meteorological stations in Punjab and Sindh are highly prone to heat waves. According to model projection; future trend of annual heat accumulation, in 2030 was increased 17%, 26%, and 32% but for 2060 the trends were reported by 54%, 49%, and 86% for 2090 showed highest upto 62%, 75%, and 140% for RCP-4.5, RCP-6.0, and RCP-8.5, respectively. While seasonal trends of heat accumulation were projected to maximum values for monsoon and followed by pre-monsoon and post monsoon. Heat accumulation in monsoon may affect the agricultural activities in the region under study.

  3. Cloud microphysical characteristics versus temperature for three Canadian field projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Gultepe

    2002-11-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to better understand how cloud microphysical characteristics such as liquid water content (LWC and droplet number concentration (Nd change with temperature (T. The in situ observations were collected during three research projects including: the Radiation, Aerosol, and Cloud Experiment (RACE which took place over the Bay of Fundy and Central Ontario during August 1995, the First International Regional Arctic Cloud Experiment (FIRE.ACE which took place in the Arctic Ocean during April 1998, and the Alliance Icing Research Study (AIRS which took place in the Ontario region during the winter of 1999–2000. The RACE, FIRE.ACE, and AIRS projects represent summer mid-latitude clouds, Arctic clouds, and mid-latitude winter clouds, respectively. A LWC threshold of 0.005 g m-3 was used for this study. Similar to other studies, LWC was observed to decrease with decreasing T. The LWC-T relationship was similar for all projects, although the range of T conditions for each project was substantially different, and the variability of LWC within each project was considerable. Nd also decreased with decreasing T, and a parameterization for Nd versus T is suggested that may be useful for modeling studies.Key words. Atmospheric composition and structure (cloud physics and chemistry – Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (climatology; general circulation

  4. Long-term dynamics of OH * temperatures over central Europe: trends and solar correlations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Kalicinsky

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available We present the analysis of annual average OH* temperatures in the mesopause region derived from measurements of the Ground-based Infrared P-branch Spectrometer (GRIPS at Wuppertal (51° N, 7° E in the time interval 1988 to 2015. The new study uses a temperature time series which is 7 years longer than that used for the latest analysis regarding the long-term dynamics. This additional observation time leads to a change in characterisation of the observed long-term dynamics. We perform a multiple linear regression using the solar radio flux F10.7 cm (11-year cycle of solar activity and time to describe the temperature evolution. The analysis leads to a linear trend of (−0.089 ± 0.055 K year−1 and a sensitivity to the solar activity of (4.2 ± 0.9 K (100 SFU−1 (r2 of fit 0.6. However, one linear trend in combination with the 11-year solar cycle is not sufficient to explain all observed long-term dynamics. In fact, we find a clear trend break in the temperature time series in the middle of 2008. Before this break point there is an explicit negative linear trend of (−0.24 ± 0.07 K year−1, and after 2008 the linear trend turns positive with a value of (0.64 ± 0.33 K year−1. This apparent trend break can also be described using a long periodic oscillation. One possibility is to use the 22-year solar cycle that describes the reversal of the solar magnetic field (Hale cycle. A multiple linear regression using the solar radio flux and the solar polar magnetic field as parameters leads to the regression coefficients Csolar = (5.0 ± 0.7 K (100 SFU−1 and Chale = (1.8 ±  0.5 K (100 µT−1 (r2 = 0.71. The second way of describing the OH* temperature time series is to use the solar radio flux and an oscillation. A least-square fit leads to a sensitivity to the solar activity of (4.1 ± 0.8 K (100 SFU−1, a period P  =  (24.8 ± 3.3 years, and

  5. Trends of precipitation characteristics in the Czech Republic over 1961–2012, their spatial patterns and links to temperature and the North Atlantic Oscillation

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Beranová, Romana; Kyselý, Jan

    (2017) ISSN 0899-8418 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA16-04676S Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : precipitation * trend analysis * spatial pattern * temperature * the North Atlantic Oscillation * the Czech Republic Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences Impact factor: 3.760, year: 2016 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.5392/full

  6. Time trends in minimum mortality temperatures in Castile-La Mancha (Central Spain): 1975-2003

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miron, Isidro J.; Criado-Alvarez, Juan José; Diaz, Julio; Linares, Cristina; Mayoral, Sheila; Montero, Juan Carlos

    2008-03-01

    The relationship between air temperature and human mortality is described as non-linear, with mortality tending to rise in response to increasingly hot or cold ambient temperatures from a given minimum mortality or optimal comfort temperature, which varies from some areas to others according to their climatic and socio-demographic characteristics. Changes in these characteristics within any specific region could modify this relationship. This study sought to examine the time trend in the maximum temperature of minimum organic-cause mortality in Castile-La Mancha, from 1975 to 2003. The analysis was performed by using daily series of maximum temperatures and organic-cause mortality rates grouped into three decades (1975-1984, 1985-1994, 1995-2003) to compare confidence intervals ( p ARIMA models (Box-Jenkins) and cross-correlation functions (CCF) at seven lags. We observed a significant decrease in comfort temperature (from 34.2°C to 27.8°C) between the first two decades in the Province of Toledo, along with a growing number of significant lags in the summer CFF (1, 3 and 5, respectively). The fall in comfort temperature is attributable to the increase in the effects of heat on mortality, due, in all likelihood, to the percentage increase in the elderly population.

  7. Influence trend of temperature distribution in skin tissue generated by different exposure dose pulse laser

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shan, Ning; Wang, Zhijing; Liu, Xia

    2014-11-01

    Laser is widely applied in military and medicine fields because of its excellent capability. In order to effectively defend excess damage by laser, the thermal processing theory of skin tissue generated by laser should be carried out. The heating rate and thermal damage area should be studied. The mathematics model of bio-tissue heat transfer that is irradiated by laser is analyzed. And boundary conditions of bio-tissue are discussed. Three layer FEM grid model of bio-tissue is established. The temperature rising inducing by pulse laser in the tissue is modeled numerically by adopting ANSYS software. The changing trend of temperature in the tissue is imitated and studied under the conditions of different exposure dose pulse laser. The results show that temperature rising in the tissue depends on the parameters of pulse laser largely. In the same conditions, the pulse width of laser is smaller and its instant power is higher. And temperature rising effect in the tissue is very clear. On the contrary, temperature rising effect in the tissue is lower. The cooling time inducing by temperature rising effect in the tissue is longer along with pulse separation of laser is bigger. And the temperature difference is bigger in the pulse period.

  8. ESCO market and industry trends: Updated results from the NAESCO database project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Osborn, Julie G.; Goldman, Charles A.; Hopper, Nicole C.

    2001-10-15

    Today's U.S. energy efficiency services industry is one of the most successful examples of private sector energy efficiency services in the world, yet little empirical information is available on the actual market activity of this industry. LBNL, together with the National Association of Energy Services Companies (NAESCO), has compiled the most comprehensive dataset of the energy efficiency services industry: nearly 1,500 case studies of energy efficiency projects. Our analysis of these projects helps shed light on some of the conventional wisdom regarding industry performance and evolution. We report key statistics about typical projects and industry trends that will aid state, federal, and international policymakers, and other investors interested in the development of a private sector energy efficiency services industry.

  9. The role of natural climatic variation in perturbing the observed global mean temperature trend

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hunt, B.G. [CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, VIC (Australia)

    2011-02-15

    Controversy continues to prevail concerning the reality of anthropogenically-induced climatic warming. One of the principal issues is the cause of the hiatus in the current global warming trend. There appears to be a widely held view that climatic change warming should exhibit an inexorable upwards trend, a view that implies there is no longer any input by climatic variability in the existing climatic system. The relative roles of climatic change and climatic variability are examined here using the same coupled global climatic model. For the former, the model is run using a specified CO{sub 2} growth scenario, while the latter consisted of a multi-millennial simulation where any climatic variability was attributable solely to internal processes within the climatic system. It is shown that internal climatic variability can produce global mean surface temperature anomalies of {+-}0.25 K and sustained positive and negative anomalies sufficient to account for the anomalous warming of the 1940s as well as the present hiatus in the observed global warming. The characteristics of the internally-induced negative temperature anomalies are such that if this internal natural variability is the cause of the observed hiatus, then a resumption of the observed global warming trend is to be expected within the next few years. (orig.)

  10. The effect of interpolation methods in temperature and salinity trends in the Western Mediterranean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. VARGAS-YANEZ

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Temperature and salinity data in the historical record are scarce and unevenly distributed in space and time and the estimation of linear trends is sensitive to different factors. In the case of the Western Mediterranean, previous works have studied the sensitivity of these trends to the use of bathythermograph data, the averaging methods or the way in which gaps in time series are dealt with. In this work, a new factor is analysed: the effect of data interpolation. Temperature and salinity time series are generated averaging existing data over certain geographical areas and also by means of interpolation. Linear trends from both types of time series are compared. There are some differences between both estimations for some layers and geographical areas, while in other cases the results are consistent. Those results which do not depend on the use of interpolated or non-interpolated data, neither are influenced by data analysis methods can be considered as robust ones. Those results influenced by the interpolation process or the factors analysed in previous sensitivity tests are not considered as robust results.

  11. Historical trends in tank 241-SY-101 waste temperatures and levels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antoniak, Z.I.

    1993-09-01

    The gas release and fluctuating level of the waste in tank 241-SY-101 have prompted more detailed interest in its historical behavior, in hopes of achieving a better understanding of its current status. To examine the historical behavior, essentially all of the tank waste temperature and level data record has been retrieved, examined, and plotted in various ways. To aid in interpreting the data, the depth of the non-convective waste layer was estimated by using a least-squares Chebyshev approximation to the temperatures. This report documents the retrieval critical examination, and graphic presentation of 241-SY-101 temperature and waste level histories. The graphic presentations clearly indicate a tank cooling trend that has become precipitous since late 1991. The plots also clearly show the decreasing frequency of waste gas release events, increasing height of the non-convective layer, and larger level drops per event

  12. Understanding Climate Change Impacts in a Cholera Endemic Megacity: Disease Trends, Hydroclimatic Indicators and Near Future-Term Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akanda, A. S. S.; Hasan, M. A.; Serman, E. A.; Jutla, A.; Huq, A.; Colwell, R. R.

    2015-12-01

    The last three decades of surveillance data shows a drastic increase of cholera prevalence in the largest cholera-endemic city in the world - Dhaka, Bangladesh. While an endemic trend is getting stronger in the dry season, the post-monsoon season shows increased variability and is epidemic in nature. The pre-monsoon dry season is becoming the dominant cholera season of the year, followed by monsoon flood related propagation in later months of the year. Although the heavily populated and rapidly urbanizing Dhaka region has experienced noticeable shifts in pre monsoon temperature and precipitation patterns and subsequent monsoon variations, to date, there has not been any systematic study on linking the long-term disease trends with observed changes in hydroclimatic indicators. Here, we focus on the past 30-year dynamics of urban cholera prevalence in Dhaka with changes in climatic or anthropogenic forcings to develop projections for the next 30-year period. We focus on the dry and the wet season indicators individually, and develop trends of maximum rainfall intensity, lowest rainfall totals in the pre-monsoon period, number of consecutive dry days, number of wet days, and number of rainy days with greater than 500mm rainfall using a recently developed gridded data product - and compare with regional hydrology, flooding, water usage, changes in distribution systems, population growth and density in urban settlements, and frequency of natural disasters. We then use a bias correction method to develop the next 30 years projections of CMIP5 Regional Climate Model outputs and impacts on cholera prevalence using a probabilistic forecasting approach.

  13. Actual and future trends of extreme values of temperature for the NW Iberian Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taboada, J.; Brands, S.; Lorenzo, N.

    2009-09-01

    It is now very well established that yearly averaged temperatures are increasing due to anthropogenic climate change. In the area of Galicia (NW Spain) this trend has also been determined. The main objective of this work is to assess actual and future trends of different extreme indices of temperature, which are of curcial importance for many impact studies. Station data for the study was provided by the CLIMA database of the regional government of Galicia (NW Spain). As direct GCM-output significantly underestimates the variance of daily surface temperature variables in NW Spain, these variables are obtained by applying a statistical downscaling technique (analog method), using 850hPa temperature and mean sea level pressure as combined predictors. The predictor fields have been extracted from three GCMs participating in the IPCC AR4 under A1, A1B and A2 scenarios. The definitions of the extreme indices have been taken from the joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team (ET) on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) This group has defined a set of standard extreme values to simplify intercomparisons of data from different regions of the world. For the temperatures in the period 1960-2006, results show a significant increase of the number of days with maximum temperatures above the 90th percentile. Furthermore, a significant decrease of the days with maximum temperatures below the 10th percentile has been found. The tendencies of minimum temperatures are reverse: less nights with minimum temperatures below 10th percentile, and more with minimum temperatures above 90th percentile. Those tendencies can be observed all over the year, but are more pronounced in summer. We have also calculated the relationship between the above mentioned extreme values and different teleconnection patterns appearing in the North Atlantic area. Results show that local tendencies are associated with trends of EA (Eastern Atlantic) and SCA (Scandinavian) patterns. NAO (North Atlantic

  14. The warming trend of ground surface temperature in the Choshui Alluvial Fan, western central Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, W.; Chang, M.; Chen, J.; Lu, W.; Huang, C. C.; Wang, Y.

    2013-12-01

    Heat storage in subsurface of the continents forms a fundamental component of the global energy budget and plays an important role in the climate system. Several researches revealed that subsurface temperatures were being increased to 1.8-2.8°C higher in mean ground surface temperature (GST) for some Asian cities where are experiencing a rapid growth of population. Taiwan is a subtropic-tropic island with densely populated in the coastal plains surrounding its mountains. We investigate the subsurface temperature distribution and the borehole temperature-depth profiles by using groundwater monitoring wells in years 2000 and 2010. Our data show that the western central Taiwan plain also has been experiencing a warming trend but with a higher temperatures approximately 3-4 °C of GST during the last 250 yrs. We suggest that the warming were mostly due to the land change to urbanization and agriculture. The current GSTs from our wells are approximately 25.51-26.79 °C which are higher than the current surface air temperature (SAT) of 23.65 °C. Data from Taiwan's weather stations also show 1-1.5 °C higher for the GST than the SAT at neighboring stations. The earth surface heat balance data indicate that GST higher than SAT is reasonable. More researches are needed to evaluate the interaction of GST and SAT, and how a warming GST's impact to the SAT and the climate system of the Earth.

  15. Identification and analysis of recent temporal temperature trends for Dehradun, Uttarakhand, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piyoosh, Atul Kant; Ghosh, Sanjay Kumar

    2018-05-01

    Maximum and minimum temperatures (T max and T min) are indicators of changes in climate. In this study, observed and gridded T max and T min data of Dehradun are analyzed for the period 1901-2014. Observed data obtained from India Meteorological Department and National Institute of Hydrology, whereas gridded data from Climatic Research Unit (CRU) were used. Efficacy of elevation-corrected CRU data was checked by cross validation using data of various stations at different elevations. In both the observed and gridded data, major change points were detected using Cumulative Sum chart. For T max, change points occur in the years 1974 and 1997, while, for T min, in 1959 and 1986. Statistical significance of trends was tested in three sub-periods based on change points using Mann-Kendall (MK) test, Sen's slope estimator, and linear regression (LR) method. It has been found that both the T max and T min have a sequence of rising, falling, and rising trends in sub-periods. Out of three different methods used for trend tests, MK and SS have indicated similar results, while LR method has also shown similar results for most of the cases. Root-mean-square error for actual and anomaly time series of CRU data was found to be within one standard deviation of observed data which indicates that the CRU data are very close to the observed data. The trends exhibited by CRU data were also found to be similar to the observed data. Thus, CRU temperature data may be quite useful for various studies in the regions of scarcity of observational data.

  16. Solar variations and their influence on trends in upper stratospheric ozone and temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wuebbles, D.J.; Kinnison, D.E.; Lean, J.L.

    1990-10-01

    Over the past decade, knowledge of the magnitude and temporal structure of the variations in the sun's ultraviolet irradiance has increased steadily. A number of theoretical modeling studies have shown that changes in the solar ultraviolet flux during the 11-year solar cycle can have a significant effect on stratospheric ozone concentrations. With the exception of Brasseur et al., who examined a very broad range of solar flux variations, all of these studies assumed much larger changes in the ultraviolet flux than measurements now indicate. These studies either calculated the steady-state effect at solar maximum and solar minimum or assumed sinusoidal variations in the solar flux changes with time. It is now possible to narrow the uncertainty range of the expected effects on upper stratospheric ozone and temperature resulting from the 11-year solar cycle. A more accurate representation of the solar flux changes with time is used in this analysis, as compared to previous published studies. This study also evaluates the relative roles of solar flux variations and increasing concentrations of long-lived trace gases in determining the observed trends in upper stratospheric ozone and temperature. The LLNL two-dimensional chemical-radiative-transport model of the global atmosphere is used to evaluate the combined effects on the stratosphere from changes in solar ultraviolet irradiances and trace gas concentrations over the last several decades. Derived trends in upper stratospheric ozone concentrations and temperature are then compared with available analyses of ground-based and satellite measurements over this time period

  17. Geriatric cancer trends in the Middle-East: Findings from Lebanese cancer projections until 2025.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haddad, Fady Gh; Kattan, Joseph; Kourie, Hampig R; El Rassy, Elie; Assi, Tarek; Adib, Salim M

    2018-03-01

    By 2020, 70% of all cancers will occur in patients aged 65years and older, causing an increase in related morbidity, mortality, and cost. This study projects cancer trends in the elderly population in Lebanon, a country experiencing accelerating aging trends. Findings will guide future policy decisions regarding geriatric oncology in Lebanon and the surrounding Arab world. Cancer incidence rates were derived for men and women 65years and above, divided into three age groups: 65-69years, 70-74years, and 75years and above. Raw data were obtained from the National Cancer Registry reports 2003-2010. The eight consecutive year data were used to project the incidence until 2025 using a logarithmic model. The Average Annual Percent Change in incidence rates was calculated to determine whether it would significantly increase, decrease, or remain stable over time. Incidence rates are projected to increase significantly in all age groups of both genders until 2025. In men, the fastest rise is expected in prostate cancer, followed by bladder, lung, colorectal, and NHL. In women, the rise will be fastest in breast, followed by colorectal, lung, NHL, and ovary. Projected rates increase faster in the "younger" age group 65-69 compared to the "oldest" ≥75, both in men and women. Only kidney and liver cancers continue to rise significantly after 75. Cancer incidence is projected to increase in individuals between 65 and 74years of age. Lebanese and Middle Eastern physicians must implement adapted therapeutic strategies in the management of the increasing caseload among frail, elderly patients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Elusive drought: uncertainty in observed trends and short- and long-term CMIP5 projections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Orlowsky

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Recent years have seen a number of severe droughts in different regions around the world, causing agricultural and economic losses, famines and migration. Despite their devastating consequences, the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI of these events lies within the general range of observation-based SPI time series and simulations from the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5. In terms of magnitude, regional trends of SPI over the last decades remain mostly inconclusive in observation-based datasets and CMIP5 simulations, but Soil Moisture Anomalies (SMAs in CMIP5 simulations hint at increased drought in a few regions (e.g., the Mediterranean, Central America/Mexico, the Amazon, North-East Brazil and South Africa. Also for the future, projections of changes in the magnitude of meteorological (SPI and soil moisture (SMA drought in CMIP5 display large spreads over all time frames, generally impeding trend detection. However, projections of changes in the frequencies of future drought events display more robust signal-to-noise ratios, with detectable trends towards more frequent drought before the end of the 21st century in the Mediterranean, South Africa and Central America/Mexico. Other present-day hot spots are projected to become less drought-prone, or display non-significant changes in drought occurrence. A separation of different sources of uncertainty in projections of meteorological and soil moisture drought reveals that for the near term, internal climate variability is the dominant source, while the formulation of Global Climate Models (GCMs generally becomes the dominant source of spread by the end of the 21st century, especially for soil moisture drought. In comparison, the uncertainty from Green-House Gas (GHG concentrations scenarios is negligible for most regions. These findings stand in contrast to respective analyses for a heat wave index, for which GHG concentrations scenarios constitute the main source

  19. Observed Trends in Indices of Daily Precipitation and Temperature Extremes in Rio de Janeiro State (brazil)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, W. L.; Dereczynski, C. P.; Cavalcanti, I. F.

    2013-05-01

    One of the main concerns of contemporary society regarding prevailing climate change is related to possible changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events. Strong heat and cold waves, droughts, severe floods, and other climatic extremes have been of great interest to researchers because of its huge impact on the environment and population, causing high monetary damages and, in some cases, loss of life. The frequency and intensity of extreme events associated with precipitation and air temperature have been increased in several regions of the planet in recent years. These changes produce serious impacts on human activities such as agriculture, health, urban planning and development and management of water resources. In this paper, we analyze the trends in indices of climatic extremes related to daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures at 22 meteorological stations of the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) in Rio de Janeiro State (Brazil) in the last 50 years. The present trends are evaluated using the software RClimdex (Canadian Meteorological Service) and are also subjected to statistical tests. Preliminary results indicate that periods of drought are getting longer in Rio de Janeiro State, except in the North/Northwest area. In "Vale do Paraíba", "Região Serrana" and "Região dos Lagos" the increase of consecutive dry days is statistically significant. However, we also detected an increase in the total annual rainfall all over the State (taxes varying from +2 to +8 mm/year), which are statistically significant at "Região Serrana". Moreover, the intensity of heavy rainfall is also growing in most of Rio de Janeiro, except in "Costa Verde". The trends of heavy rainfall indices show significant increase in the "Metropolitan Region" and in "Região Serrana", factor that increases the vulnerability to natural disasters in these areas. With respect to temperature, it is found that the frequency of hot (cold) days and nights is

  20. Projected change in characteristics of near surface temperature inversions for southeast Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Fei; Evans, Jason Peter; Di Luca, Alejandro; Jiang, Ningbo; Olson, Roman; Fita, Lluis; Argüeso, Daniel; Chang, Lisa T.-C.; Scorgie, Yvonne; Riley, Matt

    2018-05-01

    Air pollution has significant impacts on human health. Temperature inversions, especially near surface temperature inversions, can amplify air pollution by preventing convective movements and trapping pollutants close to the ground, thus decreasing air quality and increasing health issues. This effect of temperature inversions implies that trends in their frequency, strength and duration can have important implications for air quality. In this study, we evaluate the ability of three reanalysis-driven high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations to represent near surface inversions at 9 sounding sites in southeast Australia. Then we use outputs of 12 historical and future RCM simulations (each with three time periods: 1990-2009, 2020-2039, and 2060-2079) from the NSW/ACT (New South Wales/Australian Capital Territory) Regional Climate Modelling (NARCliM) project to investigate changes in near surface temperature inversions. The results show that there is a substantial increase in the strength of near surface temperature inversions over southeast Australia which suggests that future inversions may intensify poor air quality events. Near surface inversions and their future changes have clear seasonal and diurnal variations. The largest differences between simulations are associated with the driving GCMs, suggesting that the large-scale circulation plays a dominant role in near surface inversion strengths.

  1. National Status and Trends, Benthic Surveillance Project Chemistry Data, 1984-1992, National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Status and Trends (NS&T) Benthic Surveillance Project Chemistry data file reports the trace concentrations of a suite of chemical contaminants in...

  2. National Status and Trends, Benthic Surveillance Project Sites, 1984-1992, National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set reports information regarding the nominal sampling locations for the National Status and Trends Benthic Surveillance Project sites. One record is...

  3. National Status and Trends, Benthic Surveillance Project Chemistry Data, 1984-1992, National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Status and Trends (NSandT) Benthic Surveillance Project Chemistry data file reports the trace concentrations of a suite of chemical contaminants in...

  4. A century of climate and ecosystem change in Western Montana: What do temperature trends portend?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pederson, G.T.; Graumlich, L.J.; Fagre, D.B.; Kipfer, T.; Muhlfeld, C.C.

    2010-01-01

    The physical science linking human-induced increases in greenhouse gasses to the warming of the global climate system is well established, but the implications of this warming for ecosystem processes and services at regional scales is still poorly understood. Thus, the objectives of this work were to: (1) describe rates of change in temperature averages and extremes for western Montana, a region containing sensitive resources and ecosystems, (2) investigate associations between Montana temperature change to hemispheric and global temperature change, (3) provide climate analysis tools for land and resource managers responsible for researching and maintaining renewable resources, habitat, and threatened/endangered species and (4) integrate our findings into a more general assessment of climate impacts on ecosystem processes and services over the past century. Over 100 years of daily and monthly temperature data collected in western Montana, USA are analyzed for long-term changes in seasonal averages and daily extremes. In particular, variability and trends in temperature above or below ecologically and socially meaningful thresholds within this region (e.g., -17.8??C (0??F), 0??C (32??F), and 32.2??C (90??F)) are assessed. The daily temperature time series reveal extremely cold days (??? -17.8??C) terminate on average 20 days earlier and decline in number, whereas extremely hot days (???32??C) show a three-fold increase in number and a 24-day increase in seasonal window during which they occur. Results show that regionally important thresholds have been exceeded, the most recent of which include the timing and number of the 0??C freeze/thaw temperatures during spring and fall. Finally, we close with a discussion on the implications for Montana's ecosystems. Special attention is given to critical processes that respond non-linearly as temperatures exceed critical thresholds, and have positive feedbacks that amplify the changes. ?? Springer Science + Business Media B

  5. Seasonal latitudinal and secular variations in temperature trend - evidence for influence of anthropogenic sulfate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hunter, D E; Schwartz, S E; Wagener, R; Benkovitz, C M [University of California at San Diego, La Jolla, CA (United States). Scripps Institute of Oceanography

    1993-11-19

    Tropospheric aerosols increase the shortwave reflectivity of the Earth-atmosphere system both by scattering light directly, in the absence of clouds, and by enhancing cloud reflectivity. The radiative forcing of climate exerted by anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, derived mainly from SO[sub 2] emitted from fossil fuel combustion, is opposite that due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases and is estimated to be of comparable average magnitude in Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. However, persuasive evidence of climate response to this forcing has thus far been lacking. Here we examine patterns of seasonal and latitudinal variations in temperature anomaly trend for evidence of such a response. Pronounced minima in the rate of temperature increase in summer months in Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes are consistent with the latitudinal distribution of anthropogenic sulfate and changes in the rate of SO[sub 2] emissions over the industrial era.

  6. The world trends of high temperature gas-cooled reactors and the mode of utilization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishikawa, Hiroshi; Shimokawa, Jun-ichi

    1974-01-01

    After a long period of research and development, high temperature gas-cooled reactors are going to enter the practical stage. The combination of a HTGR with a closed cycle helium gas turbine is advantageous in thermal efficiency, reduction of environmental impact and economy. In recent years, the direct utilization of nuclear heat energy in industries has been attracting interest. The multi-purpose utilization of high temperature gas-cooled reactors is thus now the world trend. Reviewing the world developments in this field, the following matters are described: (1) development of HTGRs in the U.K., West Germany, France and the United States; (2) development of He gas turbine, etc. in West Germany; and (3) multi-purpose utilization of HTGRs in West Germany and Japan. (Mori, K.)

  7. Stroke trends in an aging population. The Technology Assessment Methods Project Team.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niessen, L W; Barendregt, J J; Bonneux, L; Koudstaal, P J

    1993-07-01

    Trends in stroke incidence and survival determine changes in stroke morbidity and mortality. This study examines the extent of the incidence decline and survival improvement in the Netherlands from 1979 to 1989. In addition, it projects future changes in stroke morbidity during the period 1985 to 2005, when the country's population will be aging. A state-event transition model is used, which combines Dutch population projections and existing data on stroke epidemiology. Based on the clinical course of stroke, the model describes historical national age- and sex-specific hospital admission and mortality rates for stroke. It extrapolates observed trends and projects future changes in stroke morbidity rates. There is evidence of a continuing incidence decline. The most plausible rate of change is an annual decline of -1.9% (range, -1.7% to -2.1%) for men and -2.4% (range, -2.3% to -2.8%) for women. Projecting a constant mortality decline, the model shows a 35% decrease of the stroke incidence rate for a period of 20 years. Prevalence rates for major stroke will decline among the younger age groups but increase among the oldest because of increased survival in the latter. In absolute numbers this results in an 18% decrease of acute stroke episodes and an 11% increase of major stroke cases. The increase in survival cannot fully explain the observed mortality decline and, therefore, a concomitant incidence decline has to be assumed. Aging of the population partially outweighs the effect of an incidence decline on the total burden of stroke. Increase in cardiovascular survival leads to a further increase in major stroke prevalence among the oldest age groups.

  8. Observed soil temperature trends associated with climate change in the Tibetan Plateau, 1960-2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Xuewei; Luo, Siqiong; Lyu, Shihua

    2018-01-01

    Soil temperature, an important indicator of climate change, has rarely explored due to scarce observations, especially in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) area. In this study, changes observed in five meteorological variables obtained from the TP between 1960 and 2014 were investigated using two non-parametric methods, the modified Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator method. Analysis of annual series from 1960 to 2014 has shown that surface (0 cm), shallow (5-20 cm), deep (40-320 cm) soil temperatures (ST), mean air temperature (AT), and precipitation (P) increased with rates of 0.47 °C/decade, 0.36 °C/decade, 0.36 °C/decade, 0.35 °C/decade, and 7.36 mm/decade, respectively, while maximum frozen soil depth (MFD) as well as snow cover depth (MSD) decreased with rates of 5.58 and 0.07 cm/decade. Trends were significant at 99 or 95% confidence level for the variables, with the exception of P and MSD. More impressive rate of the ST at each level than the AT indicates the clear response of soil to climate warming on a regional scale. Monthly changes observed in surface ST in the past decades were consistent with those of AT, indicating a central place of AT in the soil warming. In addition, with the exception of MFD, regional scale increasing trend of P as well as the decreasing MSD also shed light on the mechanisms driving soil trends. Significant negative-dominated correlation coefficients (α = 0.05) between ST and MSD indicate the decreasing MSD trends in TP were attributable to increasing ST, especially in surface layer. Owing to the frozen ground, the relationship between ST and P is complicated in the area. Higher P also induced higher ST, while the inhibition of freeze and thaw process on the ST in summer. With the increasing AT, P accompanied with the decreasing MFD, MSD should be the major factors induced the conspicuous soil warming of the TP in the past decades.

  9. Regional climate projections for the MENA-CORDEX domain: analysis of projected temperature and precipitation changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hänsler, Andreas; Weber, Torsten; Eggert, Bastian; Saeed, Fahad; Jacob, Daniela

    2014-05-01

    Within the CORDEX initiative a multi-model suite of regionalized climate change information will be made available for several regions of the world. The German Climate Service Center (CSC) is taking part in this initiative by applying the regional climate model REMO to downscale global climate projections of different coupled general circulation models (GCMs) for several CORDEX domains. Also for the MENA-CORDEX domain, a set of regional climate change projections has been established at the CSC by downscaling CMIP5 projections of the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) for the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with the regional model REMO for the time period from 1950 to 2100 to a horizontal resolution of 0.44 degree. In this study we investigate projected changes in future climate conditions over the domain towards the end of the 21st century. Focus in the analysis is given to projected changes in the temperature and rainfall characteristics and their differences for the two scenarios will be highlighted.

  10. Review of US ESCO industry market trends: an empirical analysis of project data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goldman, C.A.; Hopper, N.C.; Osborn, J.G. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA (United States). Energy Analysis

    2005-02-01

    This comprehensive empirical analysis of US energy service company (ESCO) industry trends and performance employs two parallel analytical approaches: a survey of firms to estimate total industry size, and a database of {approx}1500 ESCO projects, from which we report target markets and typical project characteristics, energy savings and customer economics. We estimate that industry investment for energy-efficiency related services reached US$2 billion in 2000 following a decade of strong growth. ESCO activity is concentrated in states with high economic activity and strong policy support. Typical projects save 150-200 MJ/m{sup 2}/year and are cost-effective with median benefit/cost ratios of 1.6 and 2.1 for institutional and private sector projects. The median simple payback time (SPT) is 7 years among institutional customers; 3 years is typical in the private sector. Reliance on DSM incentives has decreased since 1995. Preliminary evidence suggests that state enabling policies have boosted the industry in medium-sized states. ECSOs have proven resilient in the face of restructuring and will probably shift toward selling 'energy solutions', with energy efficiency part of a package. We conclude that appropriate policy support - both financial and non-financial - can 'jump-start' a viable private-sector energy-efficiency services industry that targets large institutional and commercial/industrial customers. (author)

  11. Review of US ESCO industry market trends: an empirical analysis of project data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldman, Charles A.; Hopper, Nicole C.; Osborn, Julie G.

    2005-01-01

    This comprehensive empirical analysis of US energy service company (ESCO) industry trends and performance employs two parallel analytical approaches: a survey of firms to estimate total industry size, and a database of ∼1500 ESCO projects, from which we report target markets and typical project characteristics, energy savings and customer economics. We estimate that industry investment for energy-efficiency related services reached US$2 billion in 2000 following a decade of strong growth. ESCO activity is concentrated in states with high economic activity and strong policy support. Typical projects save 150-200 MJ/m 2 /year and are cost-effective with median benefit/cost ratios of 1.6 and 2.1 for institutional and private sector projects. The median simple payback time (SPT) is 7 years among institutional customers; 3 years is typical in the private sector. Reliance on DSM incentives has decreased since 1995. Preliminary evidence suggests that state enabling policies have boosted the industry in medium-sized states. ESCOs have proven resilient in the face of restructuring and will probably shift toward selling 'energy solutions', with energy efficiency part of a package. We conclude that appropriate policy support - both financial and non-financial - can 'jump-start' a viable private-sector energy-efficiency services industry that targets large institutional and commercial/industrial customers

  12. Review of US ESCO industry market trends: an empirical analysis of project data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldman, C.A.; Hopper, N.C.; Osborn, J.G.

    2005-01-01

    This comprehensive empirical analysis of US energy service company (ESCO) industry trends and performance employs two parallel analytical approaches: a survey of firms to estimate total industry size, and a database of ∼1500 ESCO projects, from which we report target markets and typical project characteristics, energy savings and customer economics. We estimate that industry investment for energy-efficiency related services reached US$2 billion in 2000 following a decade of strong growth. ESCO activity is concentrated in states with high economic activity and strong policy support. Typical projects save 150-200 MJ/m 2 /year and are cost-effective with median benefit/cost ratios of 1.6 and 2.1 for institutional and private sector projects. The median simple payback time (SPT) is 7 years among institutional customers; 3 years is typical in the private sector. Reliance on DSM incentives has decreased since 1995. Preliminary evidence suggests that state enabling policies have boosted the industry in medium-sized states. ECSOs have proven resilient in the face of restructuring and will probably shift toward selling 'energy solutions', with energy efficiency part of a package. We conclude that appropriate policy support - both financial and non-financial - can 'jump-start' a viable private-sector energy-efficiency services industry that targets large institutional and commercial/industrial customers. (author)

  13. Review of U.S. ESCO industry market trends: An empirical analysis of project data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goldman, Charles A.; Hopper, Nicole C.; Osborn, Julie G.; Singer, Terry E.

    2003-03-01

    This article summarizes a comprehensive empirical analysis of U.S. Energy Service Company (ESCO) industry trends and performance. We employ two parallel analytical approaches: a comprehensive survey of firms to estimate total industry size and a database of {approx}1500 ESCO projects, from which we report target markets and typical project characteristics, energy savings and customer economics. We estimate that industry investment for energy-efficiency related services reached US $2 billion in 2000 following a decade of strong growth. ESCO activity is concentrated in states with high economic activity and strong policy support. Typical projects save 150-200 MJ/m2/year and are cost-effective with median benefit/cost ratios of 1.6 and 2.1 for institutional and private sector projects. The median simple payback time is 7 years among institutional customers; 3 years is typical in the private sector. Reliance on DSM incentives has decreased since 1995. Preliminary evidence suggests that state enabling policies have boosted the industry in medium-sized states. ESCOs have proven resilient in the face of restructuring and will probably shift toward selling ''energy solutions,'' with energy efficiency part of a package. We conclude that a private sector energy-efficiency services industry that targets large commercial and industrial customers is viable and self-sustaining with appropriate policy support both financial and non-financial.

  14. Surface-temperature trends and variability in the low-latitude North Atlantic since 1552

    KAUST Repository

    Saenger, Casey; Cohen, Anne L.; Oppo, Delia W.; Halley, Robert B.; Carilli, Jessica E.

    2009-01-01

    Sea surface temperature variability in the North Atlantic Ocean recorded since about 1850 has been ascribed to a natural multidecadal oscillation superimposed on a background warming trend1-6. It has been suggested that the multidecadal variability may be a persistent feature6-8, raising the possibility that the associated climate impacts may be predictable7,8. owever, our understanding of the multidecadal ocean variability before the instrumental record is based on interpretations of high-latitude terrestrial proxy records. Here we present an absolutely dated and annually resolved record of sea surface temperature from the Bahamas, based on a 440-year time series of coral growth rates. The reconstruction indicates that temperatures were as warm as today from about 1552 to 1570, then cooled by about 1° C from 1650 to 1730 before warming until the present. Our estimates of background variability suggest that much of the warming since 1900 was driven by anthropogenic forcing. Interdecadal variability with a period of 15-25 years is superimposed on most of the record, but multidecadal variability becomes significant only after 1730. We conclude that the multidecadal variability in sea surface temperatures in the low-latitude western Atlantic Ocean may not be persistent, potentially making accurate decadal climate forecasts more difficult to achieve. © 2009 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

  15. Surface-temperature trends and variability in the low-latitude North Atlantic since 1552

    KAUST Repository

    Saenger, Casey

    2009-06-21

    Sea surface temperature variability in the North Atlantic Ocean recorded since about 1850 has been ascribed to a natural multidecadal oscillation superimposed on a background warming trend1-6. It has been suggested that the multidecadal variability may be a persistent feature6-8, raising the possibility that the associated climate impacts may be predictable7,8. owever, our understanding of the multidecadal ocean variability before the instrumental record is based on interpretations of high-latitude terrestrial proxy records. Here we present an absolutely dated and annually resolved record of sea surface temperature from the Bahamas, based on a 440-year time series of coral growth rates. The reconstruction indicates that temperatures were as warm as today from about 1552 to 1570, then cooled by about 1° C from 1650 to 1730 before warming until the present. Our estimates of background variability suggest that much of the warming since 1900 was driven by anthropogenic forcing. Interdecadal variability with a period of 15-25 years is superimposed on most of the record, but multidecadal variability becomes significant only after 1730. We conclude that the multidecadal variability in sea surface temperatures in the low-latitude western Atlantic Ocean may not be persistent, potentially making accurate decadal climate forecasts more difficult to achieve. © 2009 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

  16. Evaluation of surface air temperature trend and climate change in the north - east of I. R. of Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alireza, Shahabfar

    2004-01-01

    In this paper maximum, minimum and mean surface air temperature recorded, analysed to reveal spatial and temporal patterns of long-term trends, change points, significant warming (cooling) periods and linear trend per decade. According to this research summer minimum temperatures have generally increased at a larger rate than in spring and autumn minimum temperatures. On the other hand, nighttime warming rates of spring and summer are generally stronger than those that exist in spring and summer daytime temperatures. Considering the significant increasing trends in annual, spring and summer temperatures, it is seen that night-time warming rates are stronger in the northern regions, which are characterized by the Khorasan Province macro climate type: a very hot summer, a relatively hot and late spring and early autumn, and a moderate winter. We have seriously considered the strong warming trends in spring and summer and thus likely in annual minimum air temperatures. It is very likely that significant and very rapid night-time warming trends over much of the province can be related to the widespread, rapid and increased urbanization in Khorasan Province, in addition to long-term and global effects of the human-induced climate change on air temperatures. (Author)

  17. Temperature Stabilization of the NIFFTE Time Projection Chamber

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hicks, Caleb

    2017-09-01

    The Neutron Induced Fission Fragment Tracking Experiment (NIFFTE) is a collaboration measuring nuclear fission cross sections for use in advanced nuclear reactors. A neutron beam incident on targets of Uranium-235, Uranium-238, and Plutonium-239 is used to measure the neutron induced fission cross sections for these isotopes. A Time Projection Chamber (TPC) is used to record these reactions. Significant heat is generated by the readout cards mounted on the TPC, which are cooled by fans. One proposed measurement of the experiment is to compare the cross sections of the target to a proton target of gaseous hydrogen. A constant temperature inside the TPC's pressure vessel is desirable to maintain a constant number of hydrogen target atoms. In addition, a constant temperature minimizes the strain and wrinkles on an amplifying mesh inside the TPC. This poster describes the successful work to develop, build, and install a fan controller using a Raspberry Pi, an Arduino, and a custom circuit board to implement an algorithm called Proportional-Integral-Derivative control. This research was supported by US DOE MENP Grant DE-FG02-03ER41243.

  18. Contribution of Temperature to Chilean Droughts Using Ensemble Climate Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.; Alfieri, L.; Naumann, G.; Garreaud, R. D.

    2017-12-01

    Precipitation deficit is traditionally considered as the main driver of drought events, however the evolution of drought conditions is also influenced by other variables such as temperature, wind speed and evapotranspiration. In view of global warming, the effect of rising temperatures may lead to increased socio-economic drought impacts, particularly in vulnerable developing countries. In this work, we used two drought indices to analyze the impacts of precipitation and temperature on the frequency, severity and duration of Chilean droughts (25°S-56°S) during the XXI century, using multi-model climate projections consistent with the high-end RCP 8.5 scenario. An ensemble of seven global CMIP5 simulations were used to drive the Earth System Model EC-EARTH3-HR v3.1 over the 1976-2100 period, in order to increase the spatial resolution from the original grid to 0.35°. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to describe the impact of precipitation on drought conditions, while the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was used to assess the effect of temperature -throughout changes in potential evapotranspiration- on drought characteristics at different time scales. Drought indices along with duration, severity and frequency of drought events were computed for a 30-year baseline period (1976-2005) and then compared to three 30-year periods representing short, medium and long-term scenarios (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100). Indices obtained from climate simulations during the baseline period were compared against the corresponding values derived from ground observations. Results obtained with SPI-12 reveal a progressive decrease in precipitation in Chile, which is consistent through all climate models, though each of them shows a different spatial pattern. Simulations based on SPEI-12 show that the expected increase in evaporative demand (driven by the temperature increase) for the region is likely to exacerbate the severity and

  19. NEDO project reports. High performance industrial furnace development project - High temperature air combustion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-03-21

    For the purpose of reducing energy consumption, a NEDO project 'Developmental research on high efficiency industrial furnaces' was carried out from FY 1993 to FY 1999 by The Japan Industrial Furnaces Manufacturers Association, and the paper outlined the details of the project. Industrial furnaces handled in this R and D can bring 30% reduction of the energy consumption and approximately 50% NOx reduction, and were given the 9th Nikkei global environmental technology prize. In the study of combustion phenomena of high temperature air combustion, the paper arranged characteristics of flame, the base of gaseous fuel flame, the base of liquid fuel flame, the base of solid fuel flame, etc. Concerning high temperature air combustion models for simulation, fluid dynamics and heat transfer models, and reaction and NOx models, etc. As to impacts of high temperature air combustion on performance of industrial furnaces, energy conservation, lowering of pollution, etc. In relation to a guide for the design of high efficiency industrial furnaces, flow charts, conceptual design, evaluation method for heat balance and efficiency using charts, combustion control system, applicability of high efficiency industrial furnaces, etc. (NEDO)

  20. NEDO project reports. High performance industrial furnace development project - High temperature air combustion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-03-21

    For the purpose of reducing energy consumption, a NEDO project 'Developmental research on high efficiency industrial furnaces' was carried out from FY 1993 to FY 1999 by The Japan Industrial Furnaces Manufacturers Association, and the paper outlined the details of the project. Industrial furnaces handled in this R and D can bring 30% reduction of the energy consumption and approximately 50% NOx reduction, and were given the 9th Nikkei global environmental technology prize. In the study of combustion phenomena of high temperature air combustion, the paper arranged characteristics of flame, the base of gaseous fuel flame, the base of liquid fuel flame, the base of solid fuel flame, etc. Concerning high temperature air combustion models for simulation, fluid dynamics and heat transfer models, and reaction and NOx models, etc. As to impacts of high temperature air combustion on performance of industrial furnaces, energy conservation, lowering of pollution, etc. In relation to a guide for the design of high efficiency industrial furnaces, flow charts, conceptual design, evaluation method for heat balance and efficiency using charts, combustion control system, applicability of high efficiency industrial furnaces, etc. (NEDO)

  1. Modelling impacts of temperature, and acidifying and eutrophying deposition on DOC trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawicka, Kasia; Rowe, Ed; Evans, Chris; Monteith, Don; Vanguelova, Elena; Wade, Andrew; Clark, Joanna

    2017-04-01

    Surface water dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in large parts of the northern hemisphere have risen over the past three decades, raising concern about enhanced contributions of carbon to the atmosphere and seas and oceans. The effect of declining acid deposition has been identified as a key control on DOC trends in soil and surface waters, since pH and ionic strength affect sorption and desorption of DOC. However, since DOC is derived mainly from recently-fixed carbon, and organic matter decomposition rates are considered sensitive to temperature, uncertainty persists regarding the extent to the relative importance of different drivers that affect these upward trends. We ran the dynamic model MADOC (Model of Acidity and Soil Organic Carbon) for a range of UK soils (podzols, gleysols and peatland), for which the time-series were available, to consider the likely relative importance of decreased deposition of sulphate and chloride, accumulation of reactive N, and higher temperatures, on DOC production in different soils. Modelled patterns of DOC change generally agreed favourably with measurements collated over 10-20 years, but differed markedly between sites. While the acidifying effect of sulphur deposition appeared to be the predominant control on the observed soil water DOC trends in all the soils considered other than a blanket peat, the model suggested that over the long term, the effects of nitrogen deposition on N-limited soils may have been sufficient to elevate the DOC recovery trajectory significantly. The second most influential cause of rising DOC in the model simulations was N deposition in ecosystems that are N-limited and respond with stimulated plant growth. Although non-marine chloride deposition made some contribution to acidification and recovery, it was not amongst the main drivers of DOC change. Warming had almost no effect on modelled historic DOC trends, but may prove to be a significant driver of DOC in future via its influence

  2. Effect of Recent Sea Surface Temperature Trends on the Arctic Stratospheric Vortex

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Oman, Luke; Hurwitz, Margaret

    2015-01-01

    The springtime Arctic polar vortex has cooled significantly over the satellite era, with consequences for ozone concentrations in the springtime transition season. The causes of this cooling trend are deduced by using comprehensive chemistry-climate model experiments. Approximately half of the satellite era early springtime cooling trend in the Arctic lower stratosphere was caused by changing sea surface temperatures (SSTs). An ensemble of experiments forced only by changing SSTs is compared to an ensemble of experiments in which both the observed SSTs and chemically- and radiatively-active trace species are changing. By comparing the two ensembles, it is shown that warming of Indian Ocean, North Pacific, and North Atlantic SSTs, and cooling of the tropical Pacific, have strongly contributed to recent polar stratospheric cooling in late winter and early spring, and to a weak polar stratospheric warming in early winter. When concentrations of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases are fixed, polar ozone concentrations show a small but robust decline due to changing SSTs. Ozone changes are magnified in the presence of changing gas concentrations. The stratospheric changes can be understood by examining the tropospheric height and heat flux anomalies generated by the anomalous SSTs. Finally, recent SST changes have contributed to a decrease in the frequency of late winter stratospheric sudden warmings.

  3. Trends in the design of front-end systems for room temperature solid state detectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manfredi, Pier F.; Re, Valerio

    2003-01-01

    The paper discusses the present trends in the design of low-noise front-end systems for room temperature semiconductor detectors. The technological advancement provided by submicron CMOS and BiCMOS processes is examined from several points of view. The noise performances are a fundamental issue in most detector applications and suitable attention is devoted to them for the purpose of judging whether or not the present processes supersede the solutions featuring a field-effect transistor as a front-end element. However, other considerations are also important in judging how well a monolithic technology suits the front-end design. Among them, the way a technology lends itself to the realization of additional functions, for instance, the charge reset in a charge-sensitive loop or the time-variant filters featuring the special weighting functions that may be requested in some applications of CdTe or CZT detectors

  4. Trends and habitat associations of waterbirds using the South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project, San Francisco Bay, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    De La Cruz, Susan E. W.; Smith, Lacy M.; Moskal, Stacy M.; Strong, Cheryl; Krause, John; Wang, Yiwei; Takekawa, John Y.

    2018-04-02

    Executive SummaryThe aim of the South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project (hereinafter “Project”) is to restore 50–90 percent of former salt evaporation ponds to tidal marsh in San Francisco Bay (SFB). However, hundreds of thousands of waterbirds use these ponds over winter and during fall and spring migration. To ensure that existing waterbird populations are supported while tidal marsh is restored in the Project area, managers plan to enhance the habitat suitability of ponds by adding islands and berms to change pond topography, manipulating water salinity and depth, and selecting appropriate ponds to maintain for birds. To help inform these actions, we used 13 years of monthly (October–April) bird abundance data from Project ponds to (1) assess trends in waterbird abundance since the inception of the Project, and (2) evaluate which pond habitat characteristics were associated with highest abundances of different avian guilds and species. For comparison, we also evaluated waterbird abundance trends in active salt production ponds using 10 years of monthly survey data.We assessed bird guild and species abundance trends through time, and created separate trend curves for Project and salt production ponds using data from every pond that was counted in a year. We divided abundance data into three seasons—fall (October–November), winter (December–February), and spring (March–April). We used the resulting curves to assess which periods had the highest bird abundance and to identify increasing or decreasing trends for each guild and species.

  5. Projection of temperature-related mortality due to cardiovascular disease in beijing under different climate change, population, and adaptation scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Boya; Li, Guoxing; Ma, Yue; Pan, Xiaochuan

    2018-04-01

    Human health faces unprecedented challenges caused by climate change. Thus, studies of the effect of temperature change on total mortality have been conducted in numerous countries. However, few of those studies focused on temperature-related mortality due to cardiovascular disease (CVD) or considered future population changes and adaptation to climate change. We present herein a projection of temperature-related mortality due to CVD under different climate change, population, and adaptation scenarios in Beijing, a megacity in China. To this end, 19 global circulation models (GCMs), 3 representative concentration pathways (RCPs), 3 socioeconomic pathways, together with generalized linear models and distributed lag non-linear models, were used to project future temperature-related CVD mortality during periods centered around the years 2050 and 2070. The number of temperature-related CVD deaths in Beijing is projected to increase by 3.5-10.2% under different RCP scenarios compared with that during the baseline period. Using the same GCM, the future daily maximum temperatures projected using the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios showed a gradually increasing trend. When population change is considered, the annual rate of increase in temperature-related CVD deaths was up to fivefold greater than that under no-population-change scenarios. The decrease in the number of cold-related deaths did not compensate for the increase in that of heat-related deaths, leading to a general increase in the number of temperature-related deaths due to CVD in Beijing. In addition, adaptation to climate change may enhance rather than ameliorate the effect of climate change, as the increase in cold-related CVD mortality greater than the decrease in heat-related CVD mortality in the adaptation scenarios will result in an increase in the total number of temperature-related CVD mortalities. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Contributions of Greenhouse Gas Forcing and the Southern Annular Mode to Historical Southern Ocean Surface Temperature Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kostov, Yavor; Ferreira, David; Armour, Kyle C.; Marshall, John

    2018-01-01

    We examine the 1979-2014 Southern Ocean (SO) sea surface temperature (SST) trends simulated in an ensemble of coupled general circulation models and evaluate possible causes of the models' inability to reproduce the observed 1979-2014 SO cooling. For each model we estimate the response of SO SST to step changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing and in the seasonal indices of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Using these step-response functions, we skillfully reconstruct the models' 1979-2014 SO SST trends. Consistent with the seasonal signature of the Antarctic ozone hole and the seasonality of SO stratification, the summer and fall SAM exert a large impact on the simulated SO SST trends. We further identify conditions that favor multidecadal SO cooling: (1) a weak SO warming response to GHG forcing, (2) a strong multidecadal SO cooling response to a positive SAM trend, and (3) a historical SAM trend as strong as in observations.

  7. Trend analysis by a piecewise linear regression model applied to surface air temperatures in Southeastern Spain (1973–2014)

    OpenAIRE

    Campra, Pablo; Morales, Maria

    2016-01-01

    The magnitude of the trends of environmental and climatic changes is mostly derived from the slopes of the linear trends using ordinary least-square fitting. An alternative flexible fitting model, piecewise regression, has been applied here to surface air temperature records in southeastern Spain for the recent warming period (1973–2014) to gain accuracy in the description of the inner structure of change, dividing the time series into linear segments with different slopes. Breakpoint y...

  8. Temperature and Snowfall in Western Queen Maud Land Increasing Faster Than Climate Model Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medley, B.; McConnell, J. R.; Neumann, T. A.; Reijmer, C. H.; Chellman, N.; Sigl, M.; Kipfstuhl, S.

    2018-02-01

    East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) mass balance is largely driven by snowfall. Recently, increased snowfall in Queen Maud Land led to years of EAIS mass gain. It is difficult to determine whether these years of enhanced snowfall are anomalous or part of a longer-term trend, reducing our ability to assess the mitigating impact of snowfall on sea level rise. We determine that the recent snowfall increases in western Queen Maud Land (QML) are part of a long-term trend (+5.2 ± 3.7% decade-1) and are unprecedented over the past two millennia. Warming between 1998 and 2016 is significant and rapid (+1.1 ± 0.7°C decade-1). Using these observations, we determine that the current accumulation and temperature increases in QML from an ensemble of global climate simulations are too low, which suggests that projections of the QML contribution to sea level rise are potentially overestimated with a reduced mitigating impact of enhanced snowfall in a warming world.

  9. Evolution of Project Management in Integration Development Trends of Today’s Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lukmanova Inessa

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Today’s development trends are affected by many external and internal factors, stepping up globalization processes, faster innovation cycles, negative effects of various bans, import and export sanctions slapped on some categories of goods, technologies, capital, etc. Tit-for-tat responses of the economic systems seek sustainable development of countries taking part in the integration processes. A radical-yet-constructive strategy that deepens integration can tackle the problem. Its focus is determined by the need to upgrade the economies of the former Soviet Union; while a mutual interest in the rollout of the synergistic integration potential channels common efforts on transcontinental megaprojects. A new type of integration projects creates comprehensive methods of project management. They feature the need for information transparency and controlled alignment of innovation, investment, construction and resource capacities of member countries. With streamlined resource flows, the Eurasian transit will help facilitate and cut costs of commodity exchange among countries, provided they take synchronized efforts in not just technical and technological, but also organizational, economic, legal and IT innovations.

  10. Assessment of the Effects of Temperature and Precipitation Variations on the Trend of River Flows in Urmia Lake Watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashkan Farokhnia

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Trend analysis is one of the appropriate methods to assess the hydro-climatic condition of watersheds, which is commonly used for analysis of change pattern in a single variable over time. However, in real cases, many hydrological variables such as river flow are directly affected by climate and environmental factors, which usually go unnoticed in routine analyzes. The aim of the present research is to investigate the trend of river discharge in 25 hydrometric stations in Lake Urmia river basin with and without consideration of temperature and rainfall variability. Briefly, the results showed that there is a decreasing trend in all stations, which is significant in 9 cases. Also, it has been shown that regarding to trends in precipitation and temperature, the number of stations with significant decreasing trend will reduce to 7, which shows low impact of climate factors on the reduction rate of discharge in these stations. Based on the results, it can be concluded that climate variations have direct effect in inferring significant trends in river flow, so that considering these variables in studying of river discharge can lead to different results in the detection of significant trends.

  11. Multiyear Rainfall and Temperature Trends in the Volta River Basin and their Potential Impact on Hydropower Generation in Ghana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amos T. Kabo-Bah

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The effects of temperature and rainfall changes on hydropower generation in Ghana from 1960–2011 were examined to understand country-wide trends of climate variability. Moreover, the discharge and the water level trends for the Akosombo reservoir from 1965–2014 were examined using the Mann-Kendall test statistic to assess localised changes. The annual temperature trend was positive while rainfall showed both negative and positive trends in different parts of the country. However, these trends were not statistically significant in the study regions in 1960 to 2011. Rainfall was not evenly distributed throughout the years, with the highest rainfall recorded between 1960 and 1970 and the lowest rainfalls between 2000 and 2011. The Mann-Kendall test shows an upward trend for the discharge of the Akosombo reservoir and a downward trend for the water level. However, the discharge irregularities of the reservoir do not necessarily affect the energy generated from the Akosombo plant, but rather the regular low flow of water into the reservoir affected power generation. This is the major concern for the operations of the Akosombo hydropower plant for energy generation in Ghana.

  12. Trends in extreme daily temperatures and humidex index in the United Arab Emirates over 1948-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, H. W.; Ouarda, T.

    2015-12-01

    This study deals with the analysis of the characteristics of extreme temperature events in the Middle East, using NCEP reanalysis gridded data, for the summer (May-October) and winter (November-April) seasons. Trends in the occurrences of three types of heat spells during 1948-2014 are studied by both Linear Regression (LR) and Mann-Kendall (MK) test. Changes in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) are also investigated. To better understand the effects of heat spells on public health, the Humidex, a combination index of ambient temperature and relative humidity, is also used. Using percentile threshold, temperature (Humidex) Type-A and Type-B heat spells are defined respectively by daily maximum and minimum temperature (Humidex). Type-C heat spells are defined as the joint occurrence of Type-A and Type-B heat spells at the same time. In the Middle East, it is found that no coherent trend in temperature Type-A heat spells is observed. However, the occurrences of temperature Type-B and C heat spells have consistently increased since 1948. For Humidex heat spells, coherently increased activities of all three types of heat spells are observed in the area. During the summer, the magnitude of the positive trends in Humidex heat spells are generally stronger than temperature heat spells. More than half of the locations in the area show significantly negative DTR trends in the summer, but the trends vary according to the region in the winter. Annual mean temperature has increased an average by 0.5°C, but it is mainly associated with the daily minimum temperature which has warmed up by 0.84°C.Daily maximum temperature showed no significant trends. The warming is hence stronger in minimum temperatures than in maximum temperatures resulting in a decrease in DTR by 0.16 °C per decade. This study indicates hence that the UAE has not become hotter, but it has become less cold during 1948 to 2014.

  13. Industrial heat pumps for high temperatures - a pilot project; Industrielle varmepumper for hoeje temperaturer - et forprojekt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johansson, M. [Dansk Energi Analyse A/S, Frederiksberg (Denmark); Weel, M.; Mikkelsen, J. [Weel and Sandvig, Kgs. Lyngby (Denmark)

    2012-03-15

    This project investigates the possibility of using mass produced and inexpensive turbo compressor technology for heat pumping in the industry. The compressors are designed for the compression of air and used by the automotive industry in connection with turbo-chargers. The heat pumps are primarily intended to use water as the working medium, which in addition to having no environmental loads, is suitable for the heat pumping at temperatures above about 60 deg. C and up to about 200 deg. C, a temperature level which is considerably higher than what has previously been observed covered with heat pumping. In this project, a Danish-produced high-speed gear (Rotrex) is used, which has just been developed to said compressor technology. In cooperation with Rotrex, the modifications relevant to a standard unit were analyzed and assessed. The project identified some areas of industry where heat pumping using this technology is considered to be attractive. A pilot plant operating with steam in a total of 12 hours is demonstrated. In more than 3 hours, the pilot plant was coupled so that it delivered useful heat supply to the evaporator. The plant has during the tests worked satisfactorily, and there is no evidence of problems with leaks in the compressor shaft sealings, neither in relation to the leakage of oil or steam, which was one of the central issues to clarify with the demonstration. In the limited testing period no problems were detected that could not be immediately resolved, i.e. the transmission in the form of a belt drive with high speed from the engine to the friction gear. In the determination of the performance of the compressor during the trial operation with steam as a working medium, it is shown that the conversion efficiency are within the expected range when taking into account the uncertainties in the measurements and the calculation method. In the experiment, no measurement of steam flow through the compressor was made, because of a greatly reduced

  14. Ultrasonic computerized tomography (CT) for temperature measurements with limited projection data based on extrapolated filtered back projection (FBP) method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu Ning; Jiang Yong; Kato, Seizo

    2005-01-01

    This study uses ultrasound in combination with tomography to obtain three-dimensional temperature measurements using projection data obtained from limited projection angle. The main feature of the new computerized tomography (CT) reconstruction algorithm is to employ extrapolation scheme to make up for the incomplete projection data, it is based on the conventional filtered back projection (FBP) method while on top of that taking into account the correlation between the projection data and Fourier transform-based extrapolation. Computer simulation is conducted to verify the above algorithm. An experimental 3D temperature distribution measurement is also carried out to validate the proposed algorithm. The simulation and experimental results demonstrate that the extrapolated FBP CT algorithm is highly effective in dealing with projection data from limited projection angle

  15. Comparison between linear and nonlinear trends in NOAA-15 AMSU-A brightness temperatures during 1998-2010

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qin, Z. [Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Center of Data Assimilation for Research and Application, Nanjing (China); Zou, X. [Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Center of Data Assimilation for Research and Application, Nanjing (China); Florida State University, Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Tallahassee, FL (United States); Weng, F. [NOAA/NESDIS, Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

    2012-10-15

    Brightness temperature observations from Microwave Sounding Unit and Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) on board National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) satellites have been widely utilized for estimating the global climate trend in the troposphere and stratosphere. A common approach for deriving the trend is linear regression, which implicitly assumes the trend being a straight line over the whole length of a time series and is often highly sensitive to the data record length. This study explores a new adaptive and temporally local data analysis method - Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) - for estimating the global trends. In EEMD, a non-stationary time series is decomposed adaptively and locally into a sequence of amplitude-frequency modulated oscillatory components and a time-varying trend. The AMSU-A data from the NOAA-15 satellite over the time period from October 26, 1998 to August 7, 2010 are employed for this study. Using data over Amazon rainforest areas, it is shown that channel 3 is least sensitive to the orbital drift among four AMSU-A surface sensitive channels. The decadal trends of AMSU-A channel 3 and other eight channels in the troposphere and stratosphere are deduced and compared using both methods. It is shown that the decadal climate trends of most AMSU-A channels are nonlinear except for channels 3-4 in Northern Hemisphere only and channels 12-13. Although the decadal trend variation of the global average brightness temperature is no more than 0.2 K, the regional decadal trend variation could be more (less) than 3 K (-3 K) in high latitudes and over high terrains. (orig.)

  16. Trends and periodicity of daily temperature and precipitation extremes during 1960-2013 in Hunan Province, central south China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ajiao; He, Xinguang; Guan, Huade; Cai, Yi

    2018-04-01

    In this study, the trends and periodicity in climate extremes are examined in Hunan Province over the period 1960-2013 on the basis of 27 extreme climate indices calculated from daily temperature and precipitation records at 89 meteorological stations. The results show that in the whole province, temperature extremes exhibit a warming trend with more than 50% stations being statistically significant for 7 out of 16 temperature indices, and the nighttime temperature increases faster than the daytime temperature at the annual scale. The changes in most extreme temperature indices show strongly coherent spatial patterns. Moreover, the change rates of almost all temperature indices in north Hunan are greater than those of other regions. However, the statistically significant changes in indices of extreme precipitation are observed at fewer stations than in extreme temperature indices, forming less spatially coherent patterns. Positive trends in indices of extreme precipitation show that the amount and intensity of extreme precipitation events are generally increasing in both annual and seasonal scales, whereas the significant downward trend in consecutive wet days indicates that the precipitation becomes more even over the study period. Analysis of changes in probability distributions of extreme indices for 1960-1986 and 1987-2013 also demonstrates a remarkable shift toward warmer condition and increasing tendency in the amount and intensity of extreme precipitation during the past decades. The variations in extreme climate indices exhibit inconstant frequencies in the wavelet power spectrum. Among the 16 temperature indices, 2 of them show significant 1-year periodic oscillation and 7 of them exhibit significant 4-year cycle during some certain periods. However, significant periodic oscillations can be found in all of the precipitation indices. Wet-day precipitation and three absolute precipitation indices show significant 1-year cycle and other seven provide

  17. Climatology and trends of mesospheric (58-90) temperatures based upon 1982-1986 SME limb scattering profiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clancy, R. Todd; Rusch, David W.

    1989-01-01

    Atmospheric temperature profiles for the altitude range 58-90 km were calculated using data on global UV limb radiances from the SME satellite. The major elements of this climatology include a high vertical resolution (about 4 km) and the coverage of the 70-90 km altitude region. The analysis of this extensive data set provides a global definition of mesospheric-lower thermospheric temperature trends over the 1982-1986 period. The observations suggest a pattern of 1-2 K/year decreases in temperatures at 80-90-km altitudes accompanied by 0.5-1.5 K/year increases in temperatures at 65-80-km altitudes.

  18. Three modes of interdecadal trends in sea surface temperature and sea surface height

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gnanadesikan, A.; Pradal, M.

    2013-12-01

    It might be thought that sea surface height and sea surface temperature would be tightly related. We show that this is not necessarily the case on a global scale. We analysed this relationship in a suite of coupled climate models run under 1860 forcing conditions. The models are low-resolution variants of the GFDL Earth System Model, reported in Galbraith et al. (J. Clim. 2011). 1. Correlated changes in global sea surface height and global sea surface temperature. This mode corresponds to opening and closing of convective chimneys in the Southern Ocean. As the Southern Ocean destratifies, sea ice formation is suppressed during the winter and more heat is taken up during the summer. This mode of variability is highly correlated with changes in the top of the atmosphere radiative budget and weakly correlated with changes in the deep ocean circulation. 2. Uncorrelated changes in global sea surface height and global sea surface temperature. This mode of variability is associated with interdecadal variabliity in tropical winds. Changes in the advective flux of heat to the surface ocean play a critical role in driving these changes, which also result in significant local changes in sea level. Changes sea ice over the Southern Ocean still result in changes in solar absorption, but these are now largely cancelled by changes in outgoing longwave radiation. 3. Anticorrelated changes in global sea surface height and global sea surface temperatures. By varying the lateral diffusion coefficient in the ocean model, we are able to enhance and suppress convection in the Southern and Northern Pacific Oceans. Increasing the lateral diffusion coefficients shifts the balance sources of deep water away from the warm salty deep water of the North Atlantic and towards cold fresh deep water from the other two regions. As a result, even though the planet as a whole warms, the deep ocean cools and sea level falls, with changes of order 30 cm over 500 years. The increase in solar absorption

  19. Modelling impacts of atmospheric deposition and temperature on long-term DOC trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawicka, K; Rowe, E C; Evans, C D; Monteith, D T; E I Vanguelova; Wade, A J; J M Clark

    2017-02-01

    It is increasingly recognised that widespread and substantial increases in Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in remote surface, and soil, waters in recent decades are linked to declining acid deposition. Effects of rising pH and declining ionic strength on DOC solubility have been proposed as potential dominant mechanisms. However, since DOC in these systems is derived mainly from recently-fixed carbon, and since organic matter decomposition rates are considered sensitive to temperature, uncertainty persists over the extent to which other drivers that could influence DOC production. Such potential drivers include fertilisation by nitrogen (N) and global warming. We therefore ran the dynamic soil chemistry model MADOC for a range of UK soils, for which time series data are available, to consider the likely relative importance of decreased deposition of sulphate and chloride, accumulation of reactive N, and higher temperatures, on soil DOC production in different soils. Modelled patterns of DOC change generally agreed favourably with measurements collated over 10-20years, but differed markedly between sites. While the acidifying effect of sulphur deposition appeared to be the predominant control on the observed soil water DOC trends in all the soils considered other than a blanket peat, the model suggested that over the long term, the effects of nitrogen deposition on N-limited soils may have been sufficient to raise the "acid recovery DOC baseline" significantly. In contrast, reductions in non-marine chloride deposition and effects of long term warming appeared to have been relatively unimportant. The suggestion that future DOC concentrations might exceed preindustrial levels as a consequence of nitrogen pollution has important implications for drinking water catchment management and the setting and pursuit of appropriate restoration targets, but findings still require validation from reliable centennial-scale proxy records, such as those being developed

  20. Assessment of CMIP5 climate models and projected temperature changes over Northern Eurasia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miao, Chiyuan; Duan, Qingyun; Sun, Qiaohong; Kong, Dongxian; Ye, Aizhong; Di, Zhenhua; Gong, Wei; Huang, Yong; Yang, Tiantian

    2014-01-01

    Assessing the performance of climate models in surface air temperature (SAT) simulation and projection have received increasing attention during the recent decades. This paper assesses the performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating intra-annual, annual and decadal temperature over Northern Eurasia from 1901 to 2005. We evaluate the skill of different multi-model ensemble techniques and use the best technique to project the future SAT changes under different emission scenarios. The results show that most of the general circulation models (GCMs) overestimate the annual mean SAT in Northern Eurasia and the difference between the observation and the simulations primarily comes from the winter season. Most of the GCMs can approximately capture the decadal SAT trend; however, the accuracy of annual SAT simulation is relatively low. The correlation coefficient R between each GCM simulation and the annual observation is in the range of 0.20 to 0.56. The Taylor diagram shows that the ensemble results generated by the simple model averaging (SMA), reliability ensemble averaging (REA) and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) methods are superior to any single GCM output; and the decadal SAT change generated by SMA, REA and BMA are almost identical during 1901–2005. Heuristically, the uncertainty of BMA simulation is the smallest among the three multi-model ensemble simulations. The future SAT projection generated by the BMA shows that the SAT in Northern Eurasia will increase in the 21st century by around 1.03 °C/100 yr, 3.11 °C/100 yr and 7.14 °C/100 yr under the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively; and the warming accelerates with the increasing latitude. In addition, the spring season contributes most to the decadal warming occurring under the RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5 scenarios, while the winter season contributes most to the decadal warming occurring under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Generally, the uncertainty of the SAT

  1. Quantitative assessment of industrial VOC emissions in China: Historical trend, spatial distribution, uncertainties, and projection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Chenghang; Shen, Jiali; Zhang, Yongxin; Huang, Weiwei; Zhu, Xinbo; Wu, Xuecheng; Chen, Linghong; Gao, Xiang; Cen, Kefa

    2017-02-01

    The temporal trends of industrial volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions was comprehensively summarized for the 2011 to 2013 period, and the projections for 2020 to 2050 for China were set. The results demonstrate that industrial VOC emissions in China increased from 15.3 Tg in 2011 to 29.4 Tg in 2013 at an annual average growth rate of 38.3%. Guangdong (3.45 Tg), Shandong (2.85 Tg), and Jiangsu (2.62 Tg) were the three largest contributors collectively accounting for 30.4% of the national total emissions in 2013. The top three average industrial VOC emissions per square kilometer were Shanghai (247.2 ton/km2), Tianjin (62.8 ton/km2), and Beijing (38.4 ton/km2), which were 12-80 times of the average level in China. The data from the inventory indicate that the use of VOC-containing products, as well as the production and use of VOCs as raw materials, as well as for storage and transportation contributed 75.4%, 10.3%, 9.1%, and 5.2% of the total emissions, respectively. ArcGIS was used to display the remarkable spatial distribution variation by allocating the emission into 1 km × 1 km grid cells with a population as surrogate indexes. Combined with future economic development and population change, as well as implementation of policy and upgrade of control technologies, three scenarios (scenarios A, B, and C) were set to project industrial VOC emissions for the years 2020, 2030, and 2050, which present the industrial VOC emissions in different scenarios and the potential of reducing emissions. Finally, the result shows that the collaborative control policies considerably influenced industrial VOC emissions.

  2. Hamburg's Family Literacy project (FLY) in the context of international trends and recent evaluation findings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabkin, Gabriele; Geffers, Stefanie; Hanemann, Ulrike; Heckt, Meike; Pietsch, Marcus

    2018-05-01

    The authors of this article begin with an introduction to the holistic concept of family literacy and learning and its implementation in various international contexts, paying special attention to the key role played by the notions of lifelong learning and intergenerational learning. The international trends and experiences they outline inspired and underpinned the concept of a prize-winning Family Literacy project called FLY, which was piloted in 2004 in Hamburg, Germany. FLY aims to build bridges between preschools, schools and families by actively involving parents and other family members in children's literacy education. Its three main pillars are: (1) parents' participation in their children's classes; (2) special sessions for parents (without their children); and (3) joint out-of-school activities for teachers, parents and children. These three pillars help families from migrant backgrounds, in particular, to develop a better understanding of German schools and to play a more active role in school life. To illustrate how the FLY concept is integrated into everyday school life, the authors showcase one participating Hamburg school before presenting their own recent study on the impact of FLY in a group of Hamburg primary schools with several years of FLY experience. The results of the evaluation clearly indicate that the project's main objectives have been achieved: (1) parents of children in FLY schools feel more involved in their children's learning and are offered more opportunities to take part in school activities; (2) the quality of teaching in these schools has improved, with instruction developing a more skills-based focus due to markedly better classroom management und a more supportive learning environment; and (3) children in FLY schools are more likely to have opportunities to accumulate experience in out-of-school contexts and to be exposed to environments that stimulate and enhance their literacy skills in a tangible way.

  3. Developing European conservation and mitigation tools for pollination services: approaches of the STEP (Status and Trends of European Pollinators) project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Potts, S.G.; Biesmeijer, J.C.; Bommarco, R.; Felicioli, A.; Fischer, M.; Jokinen, P.; Kleijn, D.; Klein, A.M.; Kunin, W.E.; Neumann, P.; Penev, L.D.; Petanidou, T.; Rasmont, P.; Roberts, S.P.M.; Smith, H.G.; Sorensen, P.B.; Steffan-Dewenter, I.; Vaissiere, B.E.; Vila, M.; Vujic, A.; Woyciechowski, M.; Zobel, M.; Settele, J.; Schweiger, O.

    2011-01-01

    Pollinating insects form a key component of European biodiversity, and provide a vital ecosystem service to crops and wild plants. There is growing evidence of declines in both wild and domesticated pollinators, and parallel declines in plants relying upon them. The STEP project (Status and Trends

  4. Endometrial Cancer Trends by Race and Histology in the USA: Projecting the Number of New Cases from 2015 to 2040.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaber, Charles; Meza, Rafael; Ruterbusch, Julie J; Cote, Michele L

    2016-10-17

    The aim of this study is to explore incidence and incidence-based mortality trends for endometrial cancer in the USA and project future incident cases, accounting for differences by race and histological subtype. Data on age-adjusted and age-specific incidence and mortality rates of endometrial cancer were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results 18 registries. Trends in rates were analyzed using Joinpoint regression, and average annual percent change (AAPC) in recent years (2006-2011) was computed for histological subtypes by race. Age, histological, and race-specific rates were applied to US Census Bureau population census estimates to project new cases from 2015 to 2040, accounting for observed AAPC trends, which were progressively attenuated for the future years. The annual number of cases is projected to increase substantially from 2015 to 2040 across all racial groups. Considerable variation in incidence and mortality trends was observed both between and within racial groups when considering histology. As the US population undergoes demographic changes, incidence of endometrial cancer is projected to rise. The increase will occur in all racial groups, but larger increases will be seen in aggressive histology subtypes that disproportionately affect black women.

  5. Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L. E.

    2015-01-01

    Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary. PMID:26259555

  6. Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L E

    2015-08-11

    Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary.

  7. Aviation Trends Related to Atmospheric Environment Safety Technologies Project Technical Challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reveley, Mary S.; Withrow, Colleen A.; Barr, Lawrence C.; Evans, Joni K.; Leone, Karen M.; Jones, Sharon M.

    2014-01-01

    Current and future aviation safety trends related to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Atmospheric Environment Safety Technologies Project's three technical challenges (engine icing characterization and simulation capability; airframe icing simulation and engineering tool capability; and atmospheric hazard sensing and mitigation technology capability) were assessed by examining the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) accident database (1989 to 2008), incidents from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) accident/incident database (1989 to 2006), and literature from various industry and government sources. The accident and incident data were examined for events involving fixed-wing airplanes operating under Federal Aviation Regulation (FAR) Parts 121, 135, and 91 for atmospheric conditions related to airframe icing, ice-crystal engine icing, turbulence, clear air turbulence, wake vortex, lightning, and low visibility (fog, low ceiling, clouds, precipitation, and low lighting). Five future aviation safety risk areas associated with the three AEST technical challenges were identified after an exhaustive survey of a variety of sources and include: approach and landing accident reduction, icing/ice detection, loss of control in flight, super density operations, and runway safety.

  8. A project investigating music therapy referral trends within palliative care: an Australian perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horne-Thompson, Anne; Daveson, Barbara; Hogan, Bridgit

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this project is to analyze music therapy (MT) referral trends from palliative care team members across nine Australian inpatient and community-based palliative care settings. For each referral 6 items were collected: referral source, reason and type; time from Palliative Care Program (PCP) admission to MT referral; time from MT referral to death/discharge; and profile of referred patient. Participants (196 female, 158 male) were referred ranging in age from 4-98 years and most were diagnosed with cancer (91%, n = 323). Nurses (47%, n = 167) referred most frequently to music therapy. The mean average time in days for all referrals from PCP admission to MT referral was 11.47 and then 5.19 days to time of death. Differences in length of time to referral ranged from 8.19 days (allied health staff) to 43.75 days (families). Forty-eight percent of referrals (48.5%, n = 172) were completed when the patient was rated at an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance (ECOG) of three. Sixty-nine percent (n = 244) were living with others at the time of referral and most were Australian born. Thirty-six percent (36.7%, n = 130) were referred for symptom-based reasons, and 24.5% (n = 87) for support and coping. Implications for service delivery of music therapy practice, interdisciplinary care and benchmarking of music therapy services shall be discussed.

  9. Spatio-temporal trend analysis of projected precipitation data over Rwanda

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muhire, I.; Tesfamichael, S. G.; Ahmed, F.; Minani, E.

    2018-01-01

    This study applied a number of statistical techniques aimed at quantifying the magnitude of projected mean rainfall and number of rainy days over Rwanda on monthly, seasonal, and annual timescales for the period 2015-2050. The datasets for this period were generated by BCM2.0 for the SRES emission scenario SRB1, CO2 concentration for the baseline scenario (2011-2030) using the stochastic weather generator (LARS-WG). It was observed that on average, there will be a steady decline in mean rainfall. Save for the short rainy season, a positive trend in mean rainfall is expected over the south-west, the north-east region, and the northern highlands. The other regions (central, south-east, and western regions) are likely to experience a decline in mean rainfall. The number of rainy days is expected to decrease in the central plateau and the south-eastern lowlands, while the south-west, the north-west, and north-east regions are expected to have a pattern of increased number of rainy days. This decline in mean rainfall and rainy days over a large part of Rwanda is an indicator of just how much the country is bound to experience reduced water supply for various uses (e.g., agriculture, domestic activities, and industrial activities).

  10. A Novel Method making direct use of AIRS and IASI Calibrated Radiances for Measuring Trends in Surface Temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aumann, H. H.; Ruzmaikin, A.

    2014-12-01

    Making unbiased measurements of trends in the surface temperatures, particularly on a gobal scale, is challenging: While the non-frozen oceans temperature measurements are plentiful and accurate, land and polar areas are much less accurately or fairly sampled. Surface temperature deduced from infrared radiometers on polar orbiting satellites (e.g. the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) at 1:30PM, the Interferometer Atmosphere Sounding Interferometer (IASI) at 9:30 AM and the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) at 1:30PM), can produce what appear to be well sampled data, but dealing with clouds either by cloud filtering (MODIS, IASI) or cloud-clearing (AIRS) can create sampling bias. We use a novel method: Random Nadir Sampling (RNS) combined with Probability Density Function (PDF) analysis. We analyze the trend in the PDF of st1231, the water vapor absorption corrected brightness temperatures measured in the 1231 cm-1 atmospheric window channel. The advantage of this method is that trends can be directly traced to the known, less than 3 mK/yr trend for AIRS, in st1231. For this study we created PDFs from 22,000 daily RNS from the AIRS and IASI data. We characterized the PDFs by its daily 90%tile value, st1231p90, and analysed the statistical properties of the this time series between 2002 and 2014. The method was validated using the daily NOAA SST (RTGSST) from the non-frozen oceans: The mean, seasonal variability and anomaly trend of st1231p90 agree with the corrsponding values from the RTGSST and the anomaly correlation is larger than 0.9. Preliminary results (August 2014) confirm the global hiatus in the increase of the globally averaged surface temperatures between 2002 and 2014, with a change of less than 10 mK/yr. This uncertainty is dominated by the large interannual variability related to El Niño events. Further insite is gained by analyzing land/ocean, day/night, artic and antarctic trends. We observe a massive warming trend in the

  11. HTR-E project. High-temperature components and systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Breuil, E.; Exner, R.

    2002-01-01

    The HTR-E European project (four years project) is proposed for the 5th Framework Programme and concerns the technical developments needed for the innovative components of a modern HTR with a direct cycle. These components have been selected with reference to the present projects (GT-MHR, PBMR): (1) the helium turbine, the recuperator heat exchanger, the electro-magnetic bearings and the helium rotating seal; (2) the tribology. Sliding innovative components in helium environment are particularly concerned. (3) the helium purification system. Recommendations on impurities contents have to be provided in accordance with the materials proposed for the innovative components. The main outcomes expected from the HTR-E project are the design recommendations and identification of further R and D needs for these components. This will be based: (1) on experience feedback from European past helium test loops and reactors; (2) on design studies, thermal-hydraulic and structural analyses; (3) and on experimental tests

  12. Design of project management system for 10 MW high temperature gas-cooled test reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu Yan; Xu Yuanhui

    1998-01-01

    A framework of project management information system (MIS) for 10 MW high temperature gas-cooled test reactor is introduced. Based on it, the design of nuclear project management information system and project monitoring system (PMS) are given. Additionally, a new method of developing MIS and Decision Support System (DSS) has been tried

  13. Projecting range-wide sun bear population trends using tree cover and camera-trap bycatch data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorraine Scotson

    Full Text Available Monitoring population trends of threatened species requires standardized techniques that can be applied over broad areas and repeated through time. Sun bears Helarctos malayanus are a forest dependent tropical bear found throughout most of Southeast Asia. Previous estimates of global population trends have relied on expert opinion and cannot be systematically replicated. We combined data from 1,463 camera traps within 31 field sites across sun bear range to model the relationship between photo catch rates of sun bears and tree cover. Sun bears were detected in all levels of tree cover above 20%, and the probability of presence was positively associated with the amount of tree cover within a 6-km2 buffer of the camera traps. We used the relationship between catch rates and tree cover across space to infer temporal trends in sun bear abundance in response to tree cover loss at country and global-scales. Our model-based projections based on this "space for time" substitution suggested that sun bear population declines associated with tree cover loss between 2000-2014 in mainland southeast Asia were ~9%, with declines highest in Cambodia and lowest in Myanmar. During the same period, sun bear populations in insular southeast Asia (Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei were projected to have declined at a much higher rate (22%. Cast forward over 30-years, from the year 2000, by assuming a constant rate of change in tree cover, we projected population declines in the insular region that surpassed 50%, meeting the IUCN criteria for endangered if sun bears were listed on the population level. Although this approach requires several assumptions, most notably that trends in abundance across space can be used to infer temporal trends, population projections using remotely sensed tree cover data may serve as a useful alternative (or supplement to expert opinion. The advantages of this approach is that it is objective, data-driven, repeatable, and it requires that

  14. Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2012: Market Trends and Projections to 2017

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-07-01

    Supply shortfalls – from the Libyan civil war in 2011 and international sanctions on Iran in 2012 to a swathe of unplanned non-OPEC output stoppages – have buffeted the oil market, sending prices near 2008 highs and rekindling debate on the role of speculation in fuelling volatility. There have also been success stories. Growth in North American light, tight oil and non-conventional supply has reached game-changing levels. Iraqi production has scaled new heights, the Libyan production recovery in 2012 defied expectations and Saudi output surged to 30-year highs. On the demand front, the economic recovery has lost momentum. Market share continues to shift from mature to newly industrialised economies, but amid persistent concerns about the health of the former; China, the leading engine of oil demand growth of the last 15 years, is giving signs of slowdown. Those developments have challenged earlier assumptions and significantly changed the oil market outlook for the next five years. The IEA Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) – companion to the monthly OMR – draws their implications for the future. It provides detailed projections for oil supply at field level, crude quality trends, demand by product, refined product output and oil investments through 2017. It examines oil price formation, regulatory changes, OPEC dynamics and the future of spare capacity – while also reviewing the contribution of new supplies from deepwater, light tight oil, biofuel and natural gas liquids. It explores how market changes are reshaping the refining industry – and what that means for trade flows. At a time of heightened economic and geopolitical risk, MTOMR is essential reading for anyone interested in oil market dynamics and in understanding the oil market context in which these risks are playing out.

  15. Greenhouse gas emission trends and projections in Europe 2011. Tracking progress towards Kyoto and 2020 targets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Busche, J.; Scheffler, M.; Graichen, V. (Umweltbundesamt, Vienna (Austria)) (and others)

    2011-10-15

    At the end of 2010, the EU-15 was on track to achieve its Kyoto target but three EU-15 Member States (Austria, Italy and Luxembourg) were not on track to meet their burden-sharing targets. These countries must therefore seriously consider further action to ensure compliance, in particular revising their plans on using flexible mechanisms. Among the EEA member countries outside the EU, Liechtenstein and Switzerland were not on track to achieve their Kyoto target at the end of 2009. All other European countries are on track to meet their targets, either based on domestic emissions only or with the assistance of Kyoto mechanisms. The economic recession had a significant impact on the EU's total greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends but a more limited effect on progress towards Kyoto targets. This is because emissions in the sectors covered by the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), which were most affected by the crisis, do not affect Kyoto compliance once ETS caps have been set. With existing national measures, Member States do not project enough emission reductions for the EU to meet its unilateral 20 % reduction commitment in 2020. Additional measures currently planned by Member States will help further reduce emissions but will be insufficient to achieve the important emission cuts needed in the longer term. By 2020 Member States must enhance their efforts to reduce emissions in non-EU ETS sectors, such as the residential, transport or agriculture sectors, where legally binding national targets have been set under the EU's 2009 climate and energy package. (Author)

  16. Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2013: Market trends and projections to 2018

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-06-01

    Renewable electricity generation increased strongly worldwide in 2012, and deployment is occurring in a greater number of markets. However, the story of renewable energy development is becoming more complex. Short-term indicators in some regions of the globe have pointed to increased challenges. Despite remaining high, global new investment in renewable energy fell in 2012. Policy uncertainties, economic challenges, incentive reductions and competition from other energy sources clouded the investment outlook for some markets. Some countries and regions have faced difficulties in integrating variable renewables in their power grids. The renewable manufacturing industry, particularly solar and wind, entered a deeper period of restructuring and consolidation. Nevertheless, despite economic, policy and industry turbulence, the underlying fundamentals for renewable deployment remain robust. Even with challenges in some countries, more positive developments elsewhere continue to drive global growth. Competitive opportunities for renewables are emerging across traditional and new markets. While OECD countries remain a driver of renewable power development, non-OECD countries are increasingly accounting for overall growth. The roles of biofuels for transport and renewable heat are also increasing, though at somewhat slower rates than renewable electricity. The Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2013 assesses market trends for the renewable electricity, biofuels for transport and renewable heat sectors, identifying drivers and challenges to deployment, and making projections through 2018. The analysis features in-depth renewable electricity market analysis and forecasts for a slate of countries in the OECD and non-OECD. The report also presents an outlook for renewable electricity technologies, global biofuels supply, final energy use of renewables for heat and prospects for renewable investment.

  17. Projected Changes in Temperature Extremes in China Using PRECIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yujing Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Temperature extremes can cause disastrous impacts on ecological and social economic systems. China is very sensitive to climate change, as its warming rate exceeds that of the global mean level. This paper focused on the spatial and temporal changes of the temperature extremes characterized by the 95th percentile of maximum temperature (TX95, the 5th percentile of the minimum temperature (TN5, high-temperature days (HTD and low-temperature days (LTD. The daily maximum and minimum temperatures generated by PRECIS under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs are used in the research. The results show that: (1 Model simulation data can reproduce the spatial distribution features of the maximum temperature (Tmax and minimum temperature (Tmin as well as that of the extreme temperature indices; (2 By the end of the 21st century (2070–2099, both the Tmax and Tmin are warmer than the baseline level (1961–1990 in China and the eight sub-regions. However, there are regional differences in the asymmetrical warming features, as the Tmin warms more than the Tmax in the northern part of China and the Tibetan Plateau, while the Tmax warms more than the Tmin in the southern part of China; (3 The frequency of the warm extremes would become more usual, as the HTD characterized by the present-day threshold would increase by 106%, 196% and 346%, under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, while the cold extremes characterized by the LTD would become less frequent by the end of the 21st century, decreasing by 75%, 90% and 98% under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The southern and eastern parts of the Tibetan Plateau respond sensitively to changes in both the hot and cold extremes, suggesting its higher likelihood to suffer from climate warming; (4 The intensity of the warm (cold extremes would increase (decrease significantly, characterized by the changes in the TX95 (TN5 by the end of the 21st century, and the magnitude of the

  18. Analysis of trend in temperature and rainfall time series of an Indian arid region: comparative evaluation of salient techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machiwal, Deepesh; Gupta, Ankit; Jha, Madan Kumar; Kamble, Trupti

    2018-04-01

    This study investigated trends in 35 years (1979-2013) temperature (maximum, Tmax and minimum, Tmin) and rainfall at annual and seasonal (pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter) scales for 31 grid points in a coastal arid region of India. Box-whisker plots of annual temperature and rainfall time series depict systematic spatial gradients. Trends were examined by applying eight tests, such as Kendall rank correlation (KRC), Spearman rank order correlation (SROC), Mann-Kendall (MK), four modified MK tests, and innovative trend analysis (ITA). Trend magnitudes were quantified by Sen's slope estimator, and a new method was adopted to assess the significance of linear trends in MK-test statistics. It was found that the significant serial correlation is prominent in the annual and post-monsoon Tmax and Tmin, and pre-monsoon Tmin. The KRC and MK tests yielded similar results in close resemblance with the SROC test. The performance of two modified MK tests considering variance-correction approaches was found superior to the KRC, MK, modified MK with pre-whitening, and ITA tests. The performance of original MK test is poor due to the presence of serial correlation, whereas the ITA method is over-sensitive in identifying trends. Significantly increasing trends are more prominent in Tmin than Tmax. Further, both the annual and monsoon rainfall time series have a significantly increasing trend of 9 mm year-1. The sequential significance of linear trend in MK test-statistics is very strong (R 2 ≥ 0.90) in the annual and pre-monsoon Tmin (90% grid points), and strong (R 2 ≥ 0.75) in monsoon Tmax (68% grid points), monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter Tmin (respectively 65, 55, and 48% grid points), as well as in the annual and monsoon rainfalls (respectively 68 and 61% grid points). Finally, this study recommends use of variance-corrected MK test for the precise identification of trends. It is emphasized that the rising Tmax may hamper crop growth due to enhanced

  19. Theoretical temperature fields for the Stripa heater project. Vol. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chan, T.; Cook, N.G.W.; Tsang, C.F.

    1978-09-01

    The report concerns thermal conduction calculations for the three in-situ heater experiments at Stripa which constitute part of the Swedish-American Cooperative Program on Radioactive Waste Storage in Mined Caverns. A semianalytic solution based on the Green's function method has been developed for an array of arbitrary time-dependent finite line heaters in a semi-infinite medium. This method as well as a three dimensional numerical model using IFD (Integrated Finite Difference) technique has been applied to model the field situations at Stripa. Comparison has demonstrated that the finite line source solution for the rock temperature is in excellent agreement with the numerical model solution as well as with a closed form finite cylinder source solution. It was found that maximum temperature rise in the rock within the two year experiment period will be 178 0 C for the 3.6 kW full-scale heater experiment, 345 0 C for the full-scale experiment with a 5 kW central heater and eight 0.72 kW peripheral heaters, and less than 200 0 C for the time-scaled experiment. The ring of eight peripheral heaters in the second full-scale experiment will provide a nominally uniform temperature rise within its perimeter a few weeks after turn-on. The high temperature zone is localized throughout the duration of all three experiments. Nevertheless, the effect of different spacings on the thermal interaction between adjacent radioactive waste canisters will be demonstrated by the time-scaled experiment. Detailed results are presented in the form of tables, temperature profiles and contour plots. Predicted temperatures have been stored in an on-site computer for real-time comparison with field data. 56 figures, 7 tables

  20. Summer Temperature Trend Over the Past Two Millennia Using Air Content in Himalayan Ice

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hou, S; Chappellaz, J; Jouzel, J; Chu, P. C; Masson-Delmotte, V; Qin, D; Raynaud, D; Mayewski, P. A; Lipenkov, V. Y; Kang, S

    2007-01-01

    Two Himalayan ice cores display a factor-two decreasing trend of air content over the past two millennia, in contrast to the relatively stable values in Greenland and Antarctica ice cores over the same period...

  1. The influence of elevation, latitude and Arctic Oscillation on trends in temperature extremes over northeastern China, 1961-2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Wei; Yu, Zhen; Li, Xilin

    2018-04-01

    Trend magnitudes of 14 indices of temperature extremes at 70 stations with elevations, latitude and Arctic Oscillation over northeast China during 1960-2011 are examined. There are no significant correlations between elevation and trend magnitudes with the exception of TXn (Min T max), TNn (Min T min), TR20 (tropical nights) and GSL (growing season length). Analysis of trend magnitudes by topographic type has a strong influence, which overrides that of degree of urbanization. By contrast, most of the temperature indices have stronger correlations with the latitude and Arctic Oscillation index. The correlations between the Arctic Oscillation index and percentile indices, including TX10p (cool days), TX90p (warm days), TN10p (cool nights), TN90p (warm nights), are not the same in different areas. To summarize, analysis of trend magnitudes by topographic type, the latitude and the Arctic Oscillation shows three factors to have a strong influence in this dataset, which overrides that of elevation and degree of urbanization.

  2. MISST: The Multi-Sensor Improved Sea Surface Temperature Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-06-01

    floods or droughts over land, with associated changes in agricul- tural crop yields. Coral bleaching due to warm ocean temperatures can result in...water circulation (Manzello et al., 2007), hard corals can expel these colorful symbionts from their tissues, resulting in the "paling" or " bleaching ...34 of corals . Bleaching hinders the ability of corals to replace erosion with new growth, and in extreme cases can contribute to mass coral mortality

  3. EnviroAtlas - Ecosystem Service Market and Project Locations, U.S., 2015, Forest Trends' Ecosystem Marketplace

    Science.gov (United States)

    This EnviroAtlas dataset contains points depicting the location of market-based programs, referred to herein as markets, and projects addressing ecosystem services protection in the United States. The data were collected via surveys and desk research conducted by Forest Trends' Ecosystem Marketplace from 2008 to 2016 on biodiversity (i.e., imperiled species/habitats; wetlands and streams), carbon, and water markets. Additional biodiversity data were obtained from the Regulatory In-lieu Fee and Bank Information Tracking System (RIBITS) database in 2015. Points represent the centroids (i.e., center points) of market coverage areas, project footprints, or project primary impact areas in which ecosystem service markets or projects operate. National-level markets are an exception to this norm with points representing administrative headquarters locations. Attribute data include information regarding the methodology, design, and development of biodiversity, carbon, and water markets and projects. This dataset was produced by Forest Trends' Ecosystem Marketplace for EnviroAtlas in order to support public access to and use of information related to environmental markets. EnviroAtlas (https://www.epa.gov/enviroatlas) allows the user to interact with a web-based, easy-to-use, mapping application to view and analyze multiple ecosystem services for the contiguous United States. The dataset is available as downloadable data (https://edg.epa.gov/data/Public/ORD/EnviroAtlas) o

  4. Project-based production and project management : Findings and trends in research on temporary systems in multiple contexts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pretorius, M.W.; Oerlemans, L.A.G.

    2014-01-01

    Globalisation is challenging almost every aspect of the political, economic, social and technological environment. Organisations, whether public or private, have to adapt their strategies and operations to stay competitive and efficient. Historically, organisations adopted project-based operations

  5. Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gasparrini, Antonio; Guo, Yuming; Sera, Francesco; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Huber, Veronika; Tong, Shilu; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline; Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario; Lavigne, Eric; Matus Correa, Patricia; Valdes Ortega, Nicolas; Kan, Haidong; Osorio, Samuel; Kyselý, Jan; Urban, Aleš; Jaakkola, Jouni J K; Ryti, Niilo R I; Pascal, Mathilde; Goodman, Patrick G; Zeka, Ariana; Michelozzi, Paola; Scortichini, Matteo; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Hurtado-Diaz, Magali; Cesar Cruz, Julio; Seposo, Xerxes; Kim, Ho; Tobias, Aurelio; Iñiguez, Carmen; Forsberg, Bertil; Åström, Daniel Oudin; Ragettli, Martina S; Guo, Yue Leon; Wu, Chang-Fu; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Bell, Michelle L; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Van, Dung Do; Heaviside, Clare; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Hajat, Shakoor; Haines, Andy; Armstrong, Ben

    2017-12-01

    Climate change can directly affect human health by varying exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature. However, evidence on this direct impact at a global scale is limited, mainly due to issues in modelling and projecting complex and highly heterogeneous epidemiological relationships across different populations and climates. We collected observed daily time series of mean temperature and mortality counts for all causes or non-external causes only, in periods ranging from Jan 1, 1984, to Dec 31, 2015, from various locations across the globe through the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We estimated temperature-mortality relationships through a two-stage time series design. We generated current and future daily mean temperature series under four scenarios of climate change, determined by varying trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions, using five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality for cold and heat and their net change in 1990-2099 under each scenario of climate change, assuming no adaptation or population changes. Our dataset comprised 451 locations in 23 countries across nine regions of the world, including 85 879 895 deaths. Results indicate, on average, a net increase in temperature-related excess mortality under high-emission scenarios, although with important geographical differences. In temperate areas such as northern Europe, east Asia, and Australia, the less intense warming and large decrease in cold-related excess would induce a null or marginally negative net effect, with the net change in 2090-99 compared with 2010-19 ranging from -1·2% (empirical 95% CI -3·6 to 1·4) in Australia to -0·1% (-2·1 to 1·6) in east Asia under the highest emission scenario, although the decreasing trends would reverse during the course of the century. Conversely, warmer regions, such as the central and southern parts of America or Europe, and especially southeast Asia, would experience a sharp surge in heat

  6. High-temperature brazing, present situation and development trends - brazing alloys

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lugscheider, E.

    1980-01-01

    The range of application of high-temperature brazing is described. The process is defined. High-temperature nickel-base brazing alloys (alloying constituents, types of products. properties of the brazing alloys) and high-temperature brazing alloys for special metals and ceramics are dealt with. (orig.) [de

  7. Regional acidification trends in Florida shellfish estuaries: A 20+ year look at pH, oxygen, temperature, and salinity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robbins, Lisa L.; Lisle, John T.

    2018-01-01

    Increasing global CO2 and local land use changes coupled with increased nutrient pollution are threatening estuaries worldwide. Local changes of estuarine chemistry have been documented, but regional associations and trends comparing multiple estuaries latitudinally have not been evaluated. Rapid climate change has impacted the annual and decadal chemical trends in estuaries, with local ecosystem processes enhancing or mitigating the responses. Here, we compare pH, dissolved oxygen, temperature, and salinity data from 10 Florida shellfish estuaries and hundreds of shellfish bed stations. Over 80,000 measurements, spanning from 1980 to 2008, taken on Atlantic Ocean and West Florida coast showed significant regional trends of consistent pH decreases in 8 out of the 10 estuaries, with an average rate of decrease on the Gulf of Mexico side estuaries of Florida of 7.3 × 10−4 pH units year−1, and average decrease on the Atlantic Coast estuaries of 5.0 × 10−4 pH units year−1. The rates are approximately 2–3.4 times slower than observed in pH decreases associated with ocean acidification in the Atlantic and Pacific. Other significant trends observed include decreasing dissolved oxygen in 9 out of the 10 estuaries, increasing salinity in 6 out of the 10, and temperature increases in 3 out of the 10 estuaries. The data provide a synoptic regional view of Florida estuary trends which reflect the complexity of changing climate and coastal ocean acidification superimposed on local conditions. These data provide context for understanding, and interpreting the past and predicting future of regional water quality health of shellfish and other organisms of commercial and ecological significance along Florida’s coasts.

  8. Regional acidification trends in Florida shellfish estuaries: A 20+ year look at pH, oxygen, temperature and salinity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robbins, Lisa L.; Lisle, John T.

    2018-01-01

    Increasing global CO2 and local land use changes coupled with increased nutrient pollution are threatening estuaries worldwide. Local changes of estuarine chemistry have been documented, but regional associations and trends comparing multiple estuaries latitudinally have not been evaluated. Rapid climate change has impacted the annual and decadal chemical trends in estuaries, with local ecosystem processes enhancing or mitigating the responses. Here, we compare pH, dissolved oxygen, temperature, and salinity data from 10 Florida shellfish estuaries and hundreds of shellfish bed stations. Over 80,000 measurements, spanning from 1980 to 2008, taken on Atlantic Ocean and West Florida coast showed significant regional trends of consistent pH decreases in 8 out of the 10 estuaries, with an average rate of decrease on the Gulf of Mexico side estuaries of Florida of 7.3 × 10−4 pH units year−1, and average decrease on the Atlantic Coast estuaries of 5.0 × 10−4 pH units year−1. The rates are approximately 2–3.4 times slower than observed in pH decreases associated with ocean acidification in the Atlantic and Pacific. Other significant trends observed include decreasing dissolved oxygen in 9 out of the 10 estuaries, increasing salinity in 6 out of the 10, and temperature increases in 3 out of the 10 estuaries. The data provide a synoptic regional view of Florida estuary trends which reflect the complexity of changing climate and coastal ocean acidification superimposed on local conditions. These data provide context for understanding, and interpreting the past and predicting future of regional water quality health of shellfish and other organisms of commercial and ecological significance along Florida’s coasts.

  9. Advanced Low Temperature Geothermal Power Cycles (The ENTIV Organic Project) Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mugerwa, Michael [Technip USA, Inc., Claremont, CA (United States)

    2015-11-18

    Feasibility study of advanced low temperature thermal power cycles for the Entiv Organic Project. Study evaluates amonia-water mixed working fluid energy conversion processes developed and licensed under Kalex in comparison with Kalina cycles. Both cycles are developed using low temperature thermal resource from the Lower Klamath Lake Geothermal Area. An economic feasibility evaluation was conducted for a pilot plant which was deemed unfeasible by the Project Sponsor (Entiv).

  10. A forward looking approach to project management tools, trends, and the impact of disruptive technologies

    CERN Document Server

    Gurjar, Nikhil

    2017-01-01

    This book is intended as a basis for advanced treatment of concepts in project management. In the current scenario where most questions are answered through the internet, the knowledge element in project management has come under the influence of disruptive technologies. In other words, project managers no longer get 'points' for knowing something that is easily available on the internet. This has far-reaching consequences. The present day project managers need to orient themselves to newer benchmarks of what is required for success on the business front. This book deals with a few such advanced concepts in project management. This book is not designed as an elementary primer to the field of project management, rather it is an advanced level treatment on the subject, to be read after the preliminary study has already been completed. The book is designed for practicing project managers, and graduate students in engineering and management, who need to understand the dynamics that are typically encountered in a ...

  11. The integrated project SOFC600 development of low-temperature SOFC

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rietveld, B.; Van Berkel, F.; Zhang-Steenwinkel, Y.

    2009-01-01

    The Integrated Project SOFC600 unites 21 partners jointly working on the research and development of SOFC stack components for operation at 600oC. The project is funded by the European Commission within the 6th Framework Programme. Low-temperature operation is considered essential for achieving c...

  12. The INNOHYP-CA Project: producing Hydrogen by innovative high-temperature processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giaconia, A.; Giorgiantoni, G.; Liberatore, R.; Tarquini, P.; Vignolini, M.

    2008-01-01

    The Project, financed under the 6. Framework Programme, has selected a member of innovative high-temperature processes that seem promising for large-scale production of Hydrogen. ENEA has contributed to the analysis of the status of national and regional projects in the European countries and to the definition of guidelines for the future development of these technologies [it

  13. Technical Basis - Spent Nuclear Fuels (SNF) Project Radiation and Contamination Trending Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    ELGIN, J.C.

    2000-01-01

    This report documents the technical basis for the Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) Program radiation and contamination trending program. The program consists of standardized radiation and contamination surveys of the KE Basin, radiation surveys of the KW basin, radiation surveys of the Cold Vacuum Drying Facility (CVD), and radiation surveys of the Canister Storage Building (CSB) with the associated tracking. This report also discusses the remainder of radiological areas within the SNFP that do not have standardized trending programs and the basis for not having this program in those areas

  14. Trends in diabetes incidence from 1992 to 2015 and projections for 2024: A Portuguese General Practitioner's Network study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Sousa-Uva, Mafalda; Antunes, L; Nunes, B; Rodrigues, A P; Simões, J A; Ribeiro, R T; Boavida, J M; Matias-Dias, C

    2016-10-01

    Diabetes is known as a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Portugal is known as the European country with the highest prevalence of this disease. While diabetes prevalence data is updated annually in Portugal, the General Practitioner's (GP) Sentinel Network represents the only data source on diabetes incidence. This study describes the trends in Diabetes incidence, between 1992 and 2015, and estimate projections for the future incidence rates in Portugal until 2024. An ecological time-series study was conducted using data from GP Sentinel Network between 1992 and 2015. Family doctors reported all new cases of Diabetes in their patients' lists. Annual trends were estimated through Poisson regression models as well as the future incidence rates (until 2024), sex and age group stratified. Incidence rate projections were adjusted to the distribution of the resident Portuguese population given Statistics Portugal projections. The average increase in Diabetes incidence rate was in total 4.29% (CI95% 3.80-4.80) per year under study. Until 1998-2000, the annual incidence rate was higher in women, and from 1998-2000 to 2013-2015 turn out to be higher in men. The incidence rate projected for 2022-2024 was 972.77/10(5) inhabitants in total, and 846.74/10(5) and 1114.42/10(5), respectively, in women and men. This is the first study in Portugal to estimate diabetes incidence rate projections. The disturbing reported projections seem realistic if things continue as in the past. Actually, effective public health policies will need to be undertaken to minimize this alarming future scenario. Copyright © 2016 Primary Care Diabetes Europe. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. The Changing Face of School Psychology: Trends in Data and Projections for the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis, Michael J.; Grier, J. Elizabeth Chesno; Hunley, Sawyer A.

    2004-01-01

    Trends in data from the past to the present are described for demographic variables (gender, race and ethnicity, preparation levels, credentialing, age and experience) and ratio of students to school psychologists. School psychology in the United States will continue to be characterized as primarily Caucasian, specialist- level and female through…

  16. Employment and income trends and projections for forest-based sectors in the U.S

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karen L. Abt

    2013-01-01

    Key FindingsThe southern logging sector is expected to experience small increases in both industry output (3 percent) and jobs (2 percent) from 2008 to 2018. Increased demand from bioenergy is expected to counteract increasing trends toward mechanization and reduced demand from some traditional wood-using industries.Southern...

  17. Market trends in the U.S. ESCO industry: Results from the NAESCO database project; TOPICAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldman, Charles A.; Osborn, Julie G.; Hopper, Nicole C.; Singer, Terry E.

    2002-01-01

    The U.S. Energy Services Company (ESCO) industry is often cited as the most successful model for the private sector delivery of energy-efficiency services. This study documents actual performance of the ESCO industry in order to provide policymakers and investors with objective information and customers with a resource for benchmarking proposed projects relative to industry performance. We have assembled a database of nearly 1500 case studies of energy-efficiency projects-the most comprehensive data set of the U.S. ESCO industry available. These projects include$2.55B of work completed by 51 ESCOs and span much of the history of this industry. We estimate that the ESCO industry completed$1.8-2.1B of projects in 2000. The industry has grown rapidly over the last decade with revenues increasing at a 24% annualized rate. We summarize and compare project characteristics and costs and analyze energy savings, including the relationship between predicted and actual savings. ESCOs typically invested about$2.30/ft(sup 2) per project in various energy efficiency improvements, although there is large variation in project costs within and across market segments. We find that lighting-only projects report median electricity savings of 47% of targeted equipment consumption; the median for lighting- and -non-lighting projects is 23% of the total electric bill baseline. We examine project economics, including project net benefits, benefit/cost ratio and simple payback time. Median simple payback time is seven years for institutional sector projects and three years in the private sector. We estimate direct economic benefits of$1.62 billion for the 1080 projects in our database with both cost and savings data. The median benefit/cost ratio is 2.1 for 309 private sector projects and 1.6 for 771 institutional sector projects. We discuss the role of policies and programs adopted by state/federal legislatures and agencies that have played an important role in stimulating ESCO activity

  18. Market trends in the U.S. ESCO industry: Results from the NAESCO database project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goldman, Charles A.; Osborn, Julie G.; Hopper, Nicole C.; Singer, Terry E.

    2002-05-01

    The U.S. Energy Services Company (ESCO) industry is often cited as the most successful model for the private sector delivery of energy-efficiency services. This study documents actual performance of the ESCO industry in order to provide policymakers and investors with objective information and customers with a resource for benchmarking proposed projects relative to industry performance. We have assembled a database of nearly 1500 case studies of energy-efficiency projects-the most comprehensive data set of the U.S. ESCO industry available. These projects include $2.55B of work completed by 51 ESCOs and span much of the history of this industry. We estimate that the ESCO industry completed $1.8-2.1B of projects in 2000. The industry has grown rapidly over the last decade with revenues increasing at a 24% annualized rate. We summarize and compare project characteristics and costs and analyze energy savings, including the relationship between predicted and actual savings. ESCOs typically invested about $2.30/ft{sup 2} per project in various energy efficiency improvements, although there is large variation in project costs within and across market segments. We find that lighting-only projects report median electricity savings of 47% of targeted equipment consumption; the median for lighting-&-non-lighting projects is 23% of the total electric bill baseline. We examine project economics, including project net benefits, benefit/cost ratio and simple payback time. Median simple payback time is seven years for institutional sector projects and three years in the private sector. We estimate direct economic benefits of $1.62 billion for the 1080 projects in our database with both cost and savings data. The median benefit/cost ratio is 2.1 for 309 private sector projects and 1.6 for 771 institutional sector projects. We discuss the role of policies and programs adopted by state/federal legislatures and agencies that have played an important role in stimulating ESCO activity

  19. High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor Projected Markets and Scoping Economics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larry Demick

    2010-08-01

    The NGNP Project has the objective of developing the high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) technology to supply high temperature process heat to industrial processes as a substitute for burning of fossil fuels, such as natural gas. Applications of the HTGR technology that have been evaluated by the NGNP Project for supply of process heat include supply of electricity, steam and high-temperature gas to a wide range of industrial processes, and production of hydrogen and oxygen for use in petrochemical, refining, coal to liquid fuels, chemical, and fertilizer plants.

  20. ARCHER Project: Progress on Material and component activities for the Advanced High Temperature Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buckthorpe, D.E.

    2014-01-01

    The ARCHER (Advanced High-Temperature Reactors for Cogeneration of Heat and Electricity R&D) integrated project is a four year project which was started in 2011 as part of the European Commission 7th Framework Programme (FP7) to perform High Temperature Reactor technology R&D in support of reactor demonstration. The project consortium encompasses conventional and Nuclear Industry, Utilities, Technical Support Organizations, Research & Development Organizations and Academia. The activities involved contribute to the Generation IV (GIF) International Forum and collaborate with related projects in the US, China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea in cooperation with IAEA and ISTC. This paper addresses the progress of the work on ARCHER materials and component activities since the start of the project and underlines some of the main conclusions reached. (author)

  1. Assessing U.S. ESCO industry performance and market trends: Results from the NAESCO database project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Osborn, Julie; Goldman, Chuck; Hopper, Nicole; Singer, Terry

    2002-01-01

    The U.S. Energy Services Company (ESCO) industry is often cited as the most successful model for the private sector delivery of energy-efficiency services. This study documents actual performance of the ESCO industry in order to provide policymakers and investors with objective informative and customers with a resource for benchmarking proposed projects relative to industry performance. We have assembled a database of nearly 1500 case studies of energy-efficiency projects - the most comprehensive data set of the U.S. ESCO industry available. These projects include$2.55B of work completed by 51 ESCOs and span much of the history of this industry

  2. European seasonal and annual temperature variability, trends, and extremes since 1500.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luterbacher, Jürg; Dietrich, Daniel; Xoplaki, Elena; Grosjean, Martin; Wanner, Heinz

    2004-03-05

    Multiproxy reconstructions of monthly and seasonal surface temperature fields for Europe back to 1500 show that the late 20th- and early 21st-century European climate is very likely (>95% confidence level) warmer than that of any time during the past 500 years. This agrees with findings for the entire Northern Hemisphere. European winter average temperatures during the period 1500 to 1900 were reduced by approximately 0.5 degrees C (0.25 degrees C for annual mean temperatures) compared to the 20th century. Summer temperatures did not experience systematic century-scale cooling relative to present conditions. The coldest European winter was 1708/1709; 2003 was by far the hottest summer.

  3. USE OF TREND IMPACT ANALYSIS AFFECTS PROJECTIONS OF EUCALYPTUS CULTIVATION IN BRAZIL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samir Lotfi

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Eucalyptus forestry is an important source of competitive advantage for Brazil and, since eucalyptus is a basic raw material for industrial segments that are undergoing great expansion, monitoring the growth rate of cultivated area is increasingly relevant.This study resorted to Trend Impact Analysis (TIA to forecast the planting of eucalyptus in Brazil’s reforested areas, adjusting the linear regression of historical data in the light of three events that were under way or that will probably influence the trend: timber funds, the world financial crisis and Biomass to Liquid (BTL technology.The results allow one to infer that, in the short term, eucalyptus cultivation will expand at a rate similar to that of the linear curve, adversely affected by the world crisis and positively affected by timber funds.By 2016, however, the expansion of eucalyptus plantations is expected, largely because of the commercial scale of BTL technology.Key words: Trend Impact Analysis. Eucalyptus. Future Studies.

  4. Non-linear trends and fluctuations in temperature during different growth stages of summer maize in the North China Plain from 1960 to 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Cailin; Wu, Jidong; Wang, Xu; He, Xin; Li, Ning

    2017-12-01

    North China Plain has undergone severe warming trends since the 1950s, but whether this trend is the same during different growth phases for crops remains unknown. Thus, we analyzed the non-linear changes in the minimum temperature (T min ), mean temperature (T mean ) and maximum temperature (T max ) using the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition method during each growth stage of summer maize based on daily temperature data from 1960 to 2014. Our results strongly suggest that the trends and fluctuations in temperature change are non-linear. These changes can be categorized into four types of trend change according to the combinations of decreasing and increasing trends, and 8 fluctuation modes dominated by the fluctuations of expansion and shrinkage. The amplitude of the fluctuation is primarily expansion in the sowing-jointing stage and shrinkage in the jointing-maturity stage. Moreover, the temperature changes are inconsistent within each growth stage and are not consistent with the overall warming trend observed over the last 55 years. A transition period occurred in both the 1980s and the 1990s for temperatures during the sowing-tasseling stage. Furthermore, the cooling trend of the T max was significant in the sowing-emergence stage, while this cooling trend was not obvious for both T mean and T min in the jointing-tasseling stage. These results showed that temperature change was significantly different in different stages of the maize growth season. The results can serve as a scientific basis for a better understanding of the actual changes in the regional surface air temperature and agronomic heat resources.

  5. Contributions of greenhouse gas forcing and the Southern Annular Mode to historical Southern Ocean surface temperature trends

    OpenAIRE

    Kostov, Yavor; Ferreira, David; Marshall, John; Armour, Kyle

    2018-01-01

    We examine the 1979-2014 Southern Ocean (SO) sea surface temperature (SST) trends simulated in an ensemble of coupled general circulation models and evaluate possible causes of the models’ inability to reproduce the observed 1979-2014 SO cooling. For each model we estimate the response of SO SST to step changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing and in the seasonal indices of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Using these step-response functions, we skillfully reconstruct the models’ 1979-2014 SO ...

  6. Emerging Trends of the Owner-Contractor Relationship for Capital Facility Projects: From the Contractor Perspective

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Geertsema, Cameron

    2003-01-01

    .... Specifically, this document will focus on how the outcome of capital facility projects are affected by human resources practices, and the management principles and practices of the contractor-owner...

  7. Balancing energy, development and climate priorities in India. Current trends and future projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shukla, P.R.; Garg, A.; Dhar, S.; Halsnaes, K.

    2007-09-01

    This report gives a short introduction to the project: Projecting future energy demand: Balancing development, energy and climate priorities in large developing countries. Furthermore, the report analyses Indian energy, development and climate change, followed by an assessment of cross-country results that gives a range of key indicators of the relationship between economic growth, energy, and local and global pollutants. The focus is on the energy sector policies that mainstream climate interests within development choices. (BA)

  8. Studies on Foam Decay Trend and Influence of Temperature Jump on Foam Stability in Sclerotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Taoping; Chen, Yu; Jiang, Wentao; Yan, Fei; Fan, Yubo

    2018-02-01

    This study investigated the influence of temperature jump and liquid-gas ratio on foam stability to derive the foam-decay law. The experimental group conditions were as follows: mutation temperatures (10°C, 16°C, 20°C, 23°C, 25°C, and 27°C to >37°C) and liquid-gas ratios (1:1, 1:2, 1:3, and 1:4). The control group conditions were as follows: temperatures (10°C, 16°C, 20°C, 23°C, 25°C and 27°C) and liquid-gas ratios (1:1, 1:2, 1:3, and 1:4). A homemade device manufactured using the Tessari DSS method was used to prepare the foam. The decay process was videotape recorded. In the drainage rate curve, the temperature rose, and the liquid-gas ratio varied from 1:1 to 1:4, causing faster decay. In the entire process, the foam volume decreased with increasing drainage rate. The relationships were almost linear. Comparison of the experimental and control groups shows that the temperature jump results in a drainage time range of 1 to 15 seconds. The half-life ranges from 10 to 30 seconds. The maximum rate is 18.85%. Changes in the preparation temperature yields a drainage time range of 3 to 30 seconds. The half-life varies from 20 to 60 seconds. Decreasing the temperature jump range and liquid-gas ratio gradually enhances the foam stability. The foam decay time and drainage rate exhibit an exponential function distribution.

  9. Long-Term Trends, Variability and Extremes of In Situ Sea Surface Temperature Measured Along the Eastern Adriatic Coast and its Relationship to Hemispheric Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grbec, Branka; Matić, Frano; Beg Paklar, Gordana; Morović, Mira; Popović, Ružica; Vilibić, Ivica

    2018-02-01

    This paper examines long-term series of in situ sea surface temperature (SST) data measured at nine coastal and one open sea stations along the eastern Adriatic Sea for the period 1959-2015. Monthly and yearly averages were used to document SST trends and variability, while clustering and connections to hemispheric indices were achieved by applying the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) method. Both PCA and SOM revealed the dominance of temporal changes with respect to the effects of spatial differences in SST anomalies, indicating the prevalence of hemispheric processes over local dynamics, such as bora wind spatial inhomogeneity. SST extremes were connected with blocking atmospheric patterns. A substantial warming between 1979 and 2015, in total exceeding 1 °C, was preceded by a period with a negative SST trend, implying strong multidecadal variability in the Adriatic. The strongest connection was found between yearly SST and the East Atlantic (EA) pattern, while North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic/West Russia (EAWR) patterns were found to also affect February SST values. Quantification of the Adriatic SST and their connection to hemispheric indices allow for more precise projections of future SST, considered to be rather important for Adriatic thermohaline circulation, biogeochemistry and fisheries, and sensitive to ongoing climate change.

  10. Utility-Scale Solar 2015: An Empirical Analysis of Project Cost, Performance, and Pricing Trends in the United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bolinger, Mark [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Environmental Energy Technologies Division; Seel, Joachim [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Environmental Energy Technologies Division

    2016-08-17

    The utility-scale solar sector—defined here to include any ground-mounted photovoltaic (“PV”), concentrating photovoltaic (“CPV”), or concentrating solar power (“CSP”) project that is larger than 5 MWAC in capacity—has led the overall U.S. solar market in terms of installed capacity since 2012. It is expected to maintain its market-leading position for at least another five years, driven in part by December 2015’s three-year extension of the 30% federal investment tax credit (“ITC”) through 2019 (coupled with a favorable switch to a “start construction” rather than a “placed in service” eligibility requirement, and a gradual phase down of the credit to 10% by 2022). In fact, in 2016 alone, the utility-scale sector is projected to install more than twice as much new capacity as it ever has previously in a single year. This unprecedented boom makes it difficult, yet more important than ever, to stay abreast of the latest utility-scale market developments and trends. This report—the fourth edition in an ongoing annual series—is intended to help meet this need, by providing in-depth, annually updated, data-driven analysis of the utility-scale solar project fleet in the United States. Drawing on empirical project-level data from a wide range of sources, this report analyzes not just installed project costs or prices—i.e., the traditional realm of most solar economic analyses—but also operating costs, capacity factors, and power purchase agreement (“PPA”) prices from a large sample of utility-scale solar projects throughout the United States. Given its current dominance in the market, utility-scale PV also dominates much of this report, though data from CPV and CSP projects are also presented where appropriate.

  11. Synchronous NDVI and Surface Air Temperature Trends in Newfoundland: 1982 to 2003

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neigh, C. S. R.; Tucker, C. J.; Townshend, J. R. G.

    2007-01-01

    The northern regions of the earth are currently experiencing rapid change in temperature and precipitation. This region contains -40% of carbon stored in the world's soil which has accumulated from the last ice age (over 10,000 years ago). The carbon has remained to this point due to reduced decomposition from the short growing seasons and subfreezing temperatures. The influence of climate upon plant growth can have significant consequences to the carbon cycle balance in this region and could potentially alter and release this long term store of carbon to the atmosphere, resulting in a negative feedback enhancing climate warming. These changes have the potential to alter ecosystems processes, which impact human well being. This paper investigated a global satellite record of increases in vegetation growth from 1982 to 2003 developed at GSFC. It was found that, Newfoundland's vegetation growth during the 1990s exceeded global measurements. A number of potential causes were investigated to understand the mechanistic environmental drivers that could alter the productivity of this ecosystem. Possible drivers of change included: human influence of land use change on vegetation cover; changes in precipitation; temperature; cloud cover; snow cover; and growing season length. We found that humans had a minimal influence on vegetation growth in Newfoundland. Less than 6% of the island was logged during the investigation. We found a strong correlation of vegetation growth to a lengthening of the growing season of -9 and -17 days from 1982-1990 and 1991-1999. A distinct drop in plant growth and air temperature was found in 1990 to 1991 from the volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo that reduced global surface air temperatures. These results document the influences of air temperature upon northern forest plant growth and the cooling effects of major volcanic eruptions in this ecological system.

  12. Direct medical costs of hospitalizations for cardiovascular diseases in Shanghai, China: trends and projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shengnan; Petzold, Max; Cao, Junshan; Zhang, Yue; Wang, Weibing

    2015-05-01

    Few studies in China have focused on direct expenditures for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), making cost trends for CVDs uncertain. Epidemic modeling and forecasting may be essential for health workers and policy makers to reduce the cost burden of CVDs.To develop a time series model using Box-Jenkins methodology for a 15-year forecasting of CVD hospitalization costs in Shanghai.Daily visits and medical expenditures for CVD hospitalizations between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2012 were analyzed. Data from 2012 were used for further analyses, including yearly total health expenditures and expenditures per visit for each disease, as well as per-visit-per-year medical costs of each service for CVD hospitalizations. Time series analyses were performed to determine the long-time trend of total direct medical expenditures for CVDs and specific expenditures for each disease, which were used to forecast expenditures until December 31, 2030.From 2008 to 2012, there were increased yearly trends for both hospitalizations (from 250,354 to 322,676) and total costs (from US $ 388.52 to 721.58 million per year in 2014 currency) in Shanghai. Cost per CVD hospitalization in 2012 averaged US $ 2236.29, with the highest being for chronic rheumatic heart diseases (US $ 4710.78). Most direct medical costs were spent on medication. By the end of 2030, the average cost per visit per month for all CVDs was estimated to be US $ 4042.68 (95% CI: US $ 3795.04-4290.31) for all CVDs, and the total health expenditure for CVDs would reach over US $1.12 billion (95% CI: US $ 1.05-1.19 billion) without additional government interventions.Total health expenditures for CVDs in Shanghai are estimated to be higher in the future. These results should be a valuable future resource for both researchers on the economic effects of CVDs and for policy makers.

  13. Seasonal lake surface water temperature trends reflected by heterocyst glycolipid-based molecular thermometers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauersachs, T.; Rochelmeier, J.; Schwark, L.

    2015-06-01

    It has been demonstrated that the relative distribution of heterocyst glycolipids (HGs) in cultures of N2-fixing heterocystous cyanobacteria is largely controlled by growth temperature, suggesting a potential use of these components in paleoenvironmental studies. Here, we investigated the effect of environmental parameters (e.g., surface water temperatures, oxygen concentrations and pH) on the distribution of HGs in a natural system using water column filtrates collected from Lake Schreventeich (Kiel, Germany) from late July to the end of October 2013. HPLC-ESI/MS (high-performance liquid chromatography coupled to electrospray ionization-mass spectrometry) analysis revealed a dominance of 1-(O-hexose)-3,25-hexacosanediols (HG26 diols) and 1-(O-hexose)-3-keto-25-hexacosanol (HG26 keto-ol) in the solvent-extracted water column filtrates, which were accompanied by minor abundances of 1-(O-hexose)-3,27-octacosanediol (HG28 diol) and 1-(O-hexose)-3-keto-27-octacosanol (HG28 keto-ol) as well as 1-(O-hexose)-3,25,27-octacosanetriol (HG28 triol) and 1-(O-hexose)-3-keto-25,27-octacosanediol (HG28 keto-diol). Fractional abundances of alcoholic and ketonic HGs generally showed strong linear correlations with surface water temperatures and no or only weak linear correlations with both oxygen concentrations and pH. Changes in the distribution of the most abundant diol and keto-ol (e.g., HG26 diol and HG26 keto-ol) were quantitatively expressed as the HDI26 (heterocyst diol index of 26 carbon atoms) with values of this index ranging from 0.89 in mid-August to 0.66 in mid-October. An average HDI26 value of 0.79, which translates into a calculated surface water temperature of 15.8 ± 0.3 °C, was obtained from surface sediments collected from Lake Schreventeich. This temperature - and temperatures obtained from other HG indices (e.g., HDI28 and HTI28) - is similar to the one measured during maximum cyanobacterial productivity in early to mid-September and suggests that HGs

  14. The Relation Between Atmospheric Humidity and Temperature Trends for Stratospheric Water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fueglistaler, S.; Liu, Y. S.; Flannaghan, T. J.; Haynes, P. H.; Dee, D. P.; Read, W. J.; Remsberg, E. E.; Thomason, L. W.; Hurst, D. F.; Lanzante, J. R.; hide

    2013-01-01

    We analyze the relation between atmospheric temperature and water vapor-a fundamental component of the global climate system-for stratospheric water vapor (SWV). We compare measurements of SWV (and methane where available) over the period 1980-2011 from NOAA balloon-borne frostpoint hygrometer (NOAA-FPH), SAGE II, Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS)/Aura, and Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) to model predictions based on troposphere-to-stratosphere transport from ERA-Interim, and temperatures from ERA-Interim, Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis (MERRA), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), Radiosonde Atmospheric Temperature Products for Assessing Climate (RATPAC), HadAT2, and RICHv1.5. All model predictions are dry biased. The interannual anomalies of the model predictions show periods of fairly regular oscillations, alternating with more quiescent periods and a few large-amplitude oscillations. They all agree well (correlation coefficients 0.9 and larger) with observations for higherfrequency variations (periods up to 2-3 years). Differences between SWV observations, and temperature data, respectively, render analysis of the model minus observation residual difficult. However, we find fairly well-defined periods of drifts in the residuals. For the 1980s, model predictions differ most, and only the calculation with ERA-Interim temperatures is roughly within observational uncertainties. All model predictions show a drying relative to HALOE in the 1990s, followed by a moistening in the early 2000s. Drifts to NOAA-FPH are similar (but stronger), whereas no drift is present against SAGE II. As a result, the model calculations have a less pronounced drop in SWV in 2000 than HALOE. From the mid-2000s onward, models and observations agree reasonably, and some differences can be traced to problems in the temperature data. These results indicate that both SWV and temperature data may still suffer

  15. Marine and land temperature data sets: A comparison and a look at recent trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, P.D.; Wigley, T.M.L.; Farmer, G.

    1990-01-01

    Comparisons are made among the various data sets of marine and land temperatures. Emphasis in the analyses is placed on the first intercomparison of the two marine data sets, the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) and the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS). The results of the analyses show that the two data sets are not the same, as some authors have assumed. Important differences are noted prior to 1940, with hemispheric averages differing by up to 0.2 C for some decades during the nineteenth century. Patterns of regional temperature change over the two major periods of global warming this century, 1920-39 and 1967-86, are shown

  16. The hELENa project - II. Abundance distribution trends of early-type galaxies: from dwarfs to giants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sybilska, A.; Kuntschner, H.; van de Ven, G.; Vazdekis, A.; Falcón-Barroso, J.; Peletier, R. F.; Lisker, T.

    2018-06-01

    In this second paper of The role of Environment in shaping Low-mass Early-type Nearby galaxies (hELENa) series we study [Mg/Fe] abundance distribution trends of early-type galaxies (ETGs) observed with the Spectrographic Areal Unit for Research on Optical Nebulae integral field unit, spanning a wide range in mass and local environment densities: 20 low-mass early types (dEs) of Sybilska et al. and 258 massive early types (ETGs) of the ATLAS3D project, all homogeneously reduced and analysed. We show that the [Mg/Fe] ratios scale with velocity dispersion (σ) at fixed [Fe/H] and that they evolve with [Fe/H] along similar paths for all early types, grouped in bins of increasing local and global σ, as well as the second velocity moment Vrms, indicating a common inside-out formation pattern. We then place our dEs on the [Mg/Fe] versus [Fe/H] diagram of Local Group galaxies and show that dEs occupy the same region and show a similar trend line slope in the diagram as the high-metallicity stars of the Milky Way and the Large Magellanic Cloud. This finding extends the similar trend found for dwarf spheroidal versus dwarf irregular galaxies and supports the notion that dEs have evolved from late-type galaxies that have lost their gas at a point of their evolution, which likely coincided with them entering denser environments.

  17. Long-term patterns of air temperatures, daily temperature range, precipitation, grass-reference evapotranspiration and aridity index in the USA Great Plains: Part I. Spatial trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kukal, M.; Irmak, S.

    2016-11-01

    Due to their substantial spatio-temporal behavior, long-term quantification and analyses of important hydrological variables are essential for practical applications in water resources planning, evaluating the water use of agricultural crop production and quantifying crop evapotranspiration patterns and irrigation management vs. hydrologic balance relationships. Observed data at over 800 sites across the Great Plains of USA, comprising of 9 states and 2,307,410 km2 of surface area, which is about 30% of the terrestrial area of the USA, were used to quantify and map large-scale and long-term (1968-2013) spatial trends of air temperatures, daily temperature range (DTR), precipitation, grass-reference evapotranspiration (ETo) and aridity index (AI) at monthly, growing season and annual time steps. Air temperatures had a strong north to south increasing trend, with annual average varying from -1 to 24 °C, and growing season average temperature varying from 8 to 30 °C. DTR gradually decreased from western to eastern parts of the region, with a regional annual and growing season averages of 14.25 °C and 14.79 °C, respectively. Precipitation had a gradual shift towards higher magnitudes from west to east, with the average annual and growing season (May-September) precipitation ranging from 163 to 1486 mm and from 98 to 746 mm, respectively. ETo had a southwest-northeast decreasing trend, with regional annual and growing season averages of 1297 mm and 823 mm, respectively. AI increased from west to east, indicating higher humidity (less arid) towards the east, with regional annual and growing season averages of 0.49 and 0.44, respectively. The spatial datasets and maps for these important climate variables can serve as valuable background for climate change and hydrologic studies in the Great Plains region. Through identification of priority areas from the developed maps, efforts of the concerned personnel and agencies and resources can be diverted towards development

  18. Climate Trend Detection using Sea-Surface Temperature Data-sets from the (A)ATSR and AVHRR Space Sensors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llewellyn-Jones, D. T.; Corlett, G. K.; Remedios, J. J.; Noyes, E. J.; Good, S. A.

    2007-05-01

    Sea-Surface Temperature (SST) is an important indicator of global change, designated by GCOS as an essential Climate Variable (ECV). The detection of trends in Global SST requires rigorous measurements that are not only global, but also highly accurate and consistent. Space instruments can provide the means to achieve these required attributes in SST data. This paper presents an analysis of 15 years of SST data from two independent data sets, generated from the (A)ATSR and AVHRR series of sensors respectively. The analyses reveal trends of increasing global temperature between 0.13°C to 0.18 °C, per decade, closely matching that expected from some current predictions. A high level of consistency in the results from the two independent observing systems is seen, which gives increased confidence in data from both systems and also enables comparative analyses of the accuracy and stability of both data sets to be carried out. The conclusion is that these satellite SST data-sets provide important means to quantify and explore the processes of climate change. An analysis based upon singular value decomposition, allowing the removal of gross transitory disturbances, notably the El Niño, in order to examine regional areas of change other than the tropical Pacific, is also presented. Interestingly, although El Niño events clearly affect SST globally, they are found to have a non- significant (within error) effect on the calculated trends, which changed by only 0.01 K/decade when the pattern of El Niño and the associated variations was removed from the SST record. Although similar global trends were calculated for these two independent data sets, larger regional differences are noted. Evidence of decreased temperatures after the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 was also observed. The methodology demonstrated here can be applied to other data-sets, which cover long time-series observations of geophysical observations in order to characterise long-term change.

  19. The EUSTACE project: delivering global, daily information on surface air temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghent, D.; Rayner, N. A.

    2017-12-01

    Day-to-day variations in surface air temperature affect society in many ways; however, daily surface air temperature measurements are not available everywhere. A global daily analysis cannot be achieved with measurements made in situ alone, so incorporation of satellite retrievals is needed. To achieve this, in the EUSTACE project (2015-2018, https://www.eustaceproject.eu) we have developed an understanding of the relationships between traditional (land and marine) surface air temperature measurements and retrievals of surface skin temperature from satellite measurements, i.e. Land Surface Temperature, Ice Surface Temperature, Sea Surface Temperature and Lake Surface Water Temperature. Here we discuss the science needed to produce a fully-global daily analysis (or ensemble of analyses) of surface air temperature on the centennial scale, integrating different ground-based and satellite-borne data types. Information contained in the satellite retrievals is used to create globally-complete fields in the past, using statistical models of how surface air temperature varies in a connected way from place to place. This includes developing new "Big Data" analysis methods as the data volumes involved are considerable. We will present recent progress along this road in the EUSTACE project, i.e.: • identifying inhomogeneities in daily surface air temperature measurement series from weather stations and correcting for these over Europe; • estimating surface air temperature over all surfaces of Earth from surface skin temperature retrievals; • using new statistical techniques to provide information on higher spatial and temporal scales than currently available, making optimum use of information in data-rich eras. Information will also be given on how interested users can become involved.

  20. Temperature in Science Textbooks: Changes and Trends in Cross-National Perspective (1950-2000)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radtka, Catherine

    2013-01-01

    This study explores the way the concept of temperature was presented in lower-secondary science textbooks in France, Poland and England at the end of the 1950s and in the 2000s. I draw on history of science, history of education and book history to analyze different treatments of an apparently-similar scientific concept with regard to national…

  1. Temperature Trends in the Polar Mesosphere between 2002-2007 using TIMED/SABER Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldberg, Richard A.; Kutepov, Alexander A.; Pesnell, William Dean; Latteck, Ralph; Russell, James M.

    2008-01-01

    The TIMED Satellite was launched on December 7, 2001 to study the dynamics and energy of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. The TIMED/SABER instrument is a limb scanning infrared radiometer designed to measure a large number of minor constituents as well as the temperature of the region. In this study, we have concentrated on the polar mesosphere, to investigate the temperature characteristics as a function of spatial and temporal considerations. We used the recently revised SABER dataset (1.07) that contains improved temperature retrievals in the Earth polar summer regions. Weekly averages are used to make comparisons between the winter and summer, as well as to study the variability in different quadrants of each hemisphere. For each year studied, the duration of polar summer based on temperature measurements compares favorably with the PMSE (Polar Mesospheric Summer Echoes) season measured by radar at the ALOMAR Observatory in Norway (69 N). The PMSE period should also define the summer period suitable for the occurrence of polar mesospheric clouds. The unusual short and relatively warm polar summer in the northern hemisphere

  2. Oxygen-isotope trends and seawater temperature changes across the Late Cambrian Steptoean positive carbon-isotope excursion (SPICE event)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elrick, M.; Rieboldt, S.; Saltzman, M.; McKay, R.M.

    2011-01-01

    The globally recognized Late Cambrian Steptoean positive C-isotope excursion (SPICE) is characterized by a 3???-5??? positive ??13C shift spanning SPICE represents a widespread ocean anoxic event leading to enhanced burial/preservation of organic matter (Corg) and pyrite. We analyzed ??18O values of apatitic inarticulate brachiopods from three Upper Cambrian successions across Laurentia to evaluate paleotemperatures during the SPICE. ??18O values range from ~12.5??? to 16.5???. Estimated seawater temperatures associated with the SPICE are unreasonably warm, suggesting that the brachiopod ??18O values were altered during early diagenesis. Despite this, all three localities show similar trends with respect to the SPICE ??13C curve, suggesting that the brachiopod apatite preserves a record of relative ??18O and temperature changes. The trends include relatively high ??18O values at the onset of the SPICE, decreasing and lowest values during the main event, and an increase in values at the end of the event. The higher ??18O values during the global extinction at the onset of the SPICE suggests seawater cooling and supports earlier hypotheses of upwelling of cool waters onto the shallow shelf. Decreasing and low ??18O values coincident with the rising limb of the SPICE support the hypothesis that seawater warming and associated reduced thermohaline circulation rates contributed to decreased dissolved O2 concentrations, which enhanced the preservation/burial of Corg causing the positive ??13C shift. ?? 2011 Geological Society of America.

  3. Use and Limitations of a Climate-Quality Data Record to Study Temperature Trends on the Greenland Ice Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Dorothy K.; Comiso, Josefino C.; Shuman, Christopher A.; Koenig, Lora S.; DiGirolamo, Nicolo E.

    2011-01-01

    Enhanced melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet has been documented in recent literature along with surface-temperature increases measured using infrared satellite data since 1981. Using a recently-developed climate-quality data record, 11- and 12-year trends in the clear-sky ice-surface temperature (IST) of the Greenland Ice Sheet have been studied using the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) IST product. Daily and monthly MODIS ISTs of the Greenland Ice Sheet beginning on 1 March 2000 and continuing through 31 December 2010 are now available at 6.25-km spatial resolution on a polar stereographic grid as described in Hall et al. (submitted). This record will be elevated in status to a climate-data record (CDR) when more years of data become available either from the MODIS on the Terra or Aqua satellites, or from the Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) to be launched in October 2011. Maps showing the maximum extent of melt for the entire ice sheet and for the six major drainage basins have been developed from the MODIS IST dataset. Twelve-year trends of the duration of the melt season on the ice sheet vary in different drainage basins with some basins melting progressively earlier over the course of the study period. Some (but not all) of the basins also show a progressively-longer duration of melt. IST 12-year trends are compared with in-situ data, and climate data from the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) Reanalysis.

  4. A Reanalysis for the Seasonal and Longer-Period Cycles and the Trends in Middle Atmosphere Temperature from the HALOE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remsberg, Ellis E.

    2007-01-01

    Previously published analyses for the seasonal and longer-period cycles in middle atmosphere temperature versus pressure (or T(p)) from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) are extended to just over 14 years and updated to properly account for the effects of autocorrelation in its time series of zonally-averaged data. The updated seasonal terms and annual averages are provided, and they can be used to generate temperature distributions that are representative of the period 1991-2005. QBO-like terms have also been resolved and are provided, and they exhibit good consistency across the range of latitudes and pressure-altitudes. Further, exploratory analyses of the residuals from each of the 221 time series have yielded significant 11-yr solar cycle (or SC-like) and linear trend terms at a number of latitudes and levels. The amplitudes of the SC-like terms for the upper mesosphere agree reasonably with calculations of the direct solar radiative effects for T(p). Those SC amplitudes increase by about a factor of 2 from the lower to the upper mesosphere and are also larger at the middle than at the low latitudes. The diagnosed cooling trends for the subtropical latitudes are in the range, -0.5 to -1.0 K/decade, which is in good agreement with the findings from models of the radiative effects on pressure surfaces due to known increases in atmospheric CO2. The diagnosed trends are somewhat larger than predicted with models for the upper mesosphere of the northern hemisphere middle latitudes.

  5. High temperature gasification and gas cleaning – phase II of the HotVegas project

    OpenAIRE

    Meysel, P.; Halama, S.; Botteghi, F.; Steibel, M.; Nakonz, M.; Rück, R.; Kurowski, P.; Buttler, A.; Spliethoff, H.

    2016-01-01

    The primary objective of the research project HotVeGas is to lay the necessary foundations for the long-term development of future, highly efficient high-temperature gasification processes. This includes integrated hot gas cleaning and optional CO2 capture and storage for next generation IGCC power plants and processes for the development of synthetic fuels. The joint research project is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology and five industry partners. It is coordi...

  6. Photovoltaic (PV) Pricing Trends: Historical, Recent, and Near-Term Projections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Feldman, D.; Barbose, G.; Margolis, R.; Wiser, R.; Darghouth, N.; Goodrich, A.

    2012-11-01

    This report helps to clarify the confusion surrounding different estimates of system pricing by distinguishing between past, current, and near-term projected estimates. It also discusses the different methodologies and factors that impact the estimated price of a PV system, such as system size, location, technology, and reporting methods.These factors, including timing, can have a significant impact on system pricing.

  7. Runoff Trends Analysis and Future Projections of Hydrological Patterns in Small Forested Catchments

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Lamačová, Anna; Hruška, Jakub; Krám, Pavel; Stuchlik, E.; Farda, Aleš; Chuman, T.; Fottová, Daniela

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 9, č. 4 (2014), s. 169-181 ISSN 1801-5395 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : climate change * flow pattern * headwater catchments * hydrological modelling Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 0.659, year: 2014

  8. MBA Program Trends and Best Practices in Teaching Sustainability: Live Project Courses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sroufe, Robert; Ramos, Diane

    2011-01-01

    This study offers a model for incorporating live sustainability consulting projects in an MBA curriculum to nurture cross-functional faculty collaboration while offering students proving ground for solving contemporary challenges related to ethical management of all forms of capital. We attempt to first lay a foundation for the recent evolution of…

  9. Projecting trends in plant invasions in Europe under different scenarios of future land-use change

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Chytrý, M.; Wild, Jan; Pyšek, Petr; Jarošík, Vojtěch; Dendoncker, N.; Reginster, I.; Pino, J.; Maskell, L. C.; Vila, M.; Pergl, Jan; Kühn, I.; Spangenberg, J.H.; Settele, J.

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 21, č. 1 (2012), s. 75-87 ISSN 1466-822X R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC06073 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60050516 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : plant invasions * land-use change * prediction Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 7.223, year: 2012

  10. METHODOLOGY FOR PROJECTION OF OCCUPATIONAL TRENDS IN THE DENVER STANDARD METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    FISHMAN, LESLIE; AND OTHERS

    THE FINAL STAGE OF A PROGRAM FOR ACHIEVING A BALANCE BETWEEN THE AGGREGATE SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR LABOR IS THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES INTO OCCUPATIONAL REQUIREMENTS BASED ON PROJECTIONS OF OCCUPATIONAL PATTERNS BY INDUSTRY. THIS CAN BE USED TO EVALUATE POTENTIAL AREAS OF SUBSTANTIAL SURPLUS OR SHORTAGE, AND PROVIDE THE…

  11. Trends in temperature and dew point at the summit of Mount Washington, New Hampshire, 1935-2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, A. N.; Pszenny, A. A.; Fischer, E. V.

    2005-05-01

    Dry and wet bulb temperatures from sling psychrometer measurements taken every six hours from 1935 to 2004 at the summit of Mount Washington, located at 44 °16'N, 71 °18'W, 1914 m ASL have recently been digitized. Annual temperature has increased by 0.3°C, and annual dew point has decreased by 0.4°C over this 70-year period. Synoptic temperature has increased most in spring and winter, changing by 1.0°C and 0.5°C, respectively, while it has decreased slightly in summer and fall. Dew point has decreased in fall, summer, and winter, 0.9°C, 0.5°C, and 0.4°C respectively, and increased by 0.1°C in spring. Preliminary analysis suggests that some of the larger trends in winter and spring may be statistically significant; results of Monte Carlo simulations will be reported. Changes in dew point may be attributed to two factors. Decreasing dew points are expected if the temperature increases but the amount of water vapor present stays the same. Alternatively, lower dew points could be indicative of the presence of drier air. Other dew point climatologies of the continental United States for the second half of the century have shown mixed results, with increased dew points evident at some stations, decreased dew points at others, and no clear regional patterns.

  12. Annual and seasonal analysis of temperature and precipitation in Andorra (Pyrenees) from 1934 to 2008: quality check, homogenization and trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esteban, Pere; Prohom, Marc; Aguilar, Enric; Mestre, Olivier

    2010-05-01

    The analysis of temperature and precipitation change and variability in high elevations is a difficult issue due to the lack of long term climatic series in those environments. Nonetheless, it is important to evaluate how much high elevations follow the same climate evolution than low lying sites. In this work, using daily data from three Andorran weather stations (maintained by the power company Forces Elèctriques d'Andorra, FEDA), climate trends of annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation were obtained for the period 1934-2008. The series are complete (99.9%) and are located in a mountainous area ranging from 1110 m to 1600 m asl. As a previous step to the analysis, data rescue, quality control and homogeneity tests were applied to the daily data. For quality control, several procedures were applied to identify and flag suspicious or erroneous data: duplicated days, outliers, excessive differences between consecutive days, flat line checking, days with maximum temperature lower that minimum temperature, and rounding analysis. All the station sites were visited to gather the available metadata. Concerning homogeneity, a homogeneous climate time series is defined as one where variations are caused only by variations in climate and not to non-climatic factors (i.e., changes in site location, instruments, station environment…). As a result, homogeneity of the series was inspected from several methodologies that have been used in a complementary and independent way in order to attain solid results: C3-SNHT (with software developed under the Spanish Government Grant CGL2007-65546-C03-02), and Caussinus-Mestre (C-M) approaches. In both cases, tests were applied to mean annual temperature and precipitation series, using Catalan and French series as references (provided respectively by the Meteorological Service of Catalonia and Météo-France, in the framework of the Action COST-ES0601: Advances in homogenisation methods of climate series: an integrated

  13. Plastic surgery: quo vadis? Current trends and future projections of aesthetic plastic surgical procedures in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broer, P Niclas; Levine, Steven M; Juran, Sabrina

    2014-03-01

    The objective of this article was to evaluate past and current trends regarding aesthetic operations in the United States and to project future changes regarding such procedures. Cosmetic surgery statistics from the American Society for Aesthetic Plastic Surgery from 1997 to 2012 were analyzed by sex, age, and ethnic group. Then, using population projections from the U.S. Census Bureau based on the 2010 census, two projection scenarios of the expected number of aesthetic plastic surgery procedures were generated. The scenarios included the presumed occurrence and nonoccurrence of a recession like that which occurred in 2007. Aesthetic procedures are expected to grow from 1,688,694 in 2012 to 3,847,929 by 2030, representing an average annual growth rate of 7.1 percent. Should another recession of similar degree to the one in 2007 occur, procedures would increase to only 2,086,994, displaying an average annual growth percentage rate of 1.3 percent. Because the age distribution of the patient population will change, preferences for specific procedures according to age influence-and thus are reflected in-future demand for those procedures. Furthermore, the ethnic profile of patients will change significantly, with 32 percent of all procedures being performed on patients other than Caucasians by 2030. Demand for aesthetic plastic surgical procedures is expected to continue to grow, while depending on the economic performance at the macro level and changing demographic dynamics of the U.S. population. Considering all investigated factors and trends among all patients, the most commonly requested procedures by 2030 are likely to be (1) breast augmentations, (2) lipoplasties, and (3) blepharoplasties.

  14. The return of the projected: some thoughts on paranoia and a recent trend in horror films.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benton, R J

    1995-12-01

    I have focused on two interrelated changes in horror films of the last twenty-five years: a tendency for the "horror" to become internalized; and the use of what I call "bubbling flesh" to signify the internalized horror. Taking two films--the 1958 Fly and its 1986 remake--and treating them as (paranoid) fantasies, I have explored what I take to be the unconscious meanings of these changes. Although both films present oedipal as well as pre-oedipal conflicts, and although both employ paranoid mechanisms of negation and projection of an unacceptable wish, the earlier film also makes greater use of repression to keep the preoedipal wishes farther from consciousness. The earlier film is also more successful in its projection: In the later film the projective mechanisms fail and the projected returns to its original locus. The particular unacceptable wish that I see as being fundamental to these two films (and perhaps to all horror films) is a radically passive wish for merger with the mother--a merger wish so radical that it can be seen in terms of Gun-trip's "return to the womb" wishes, and so passive that it can be seen as a nearly pure form o Freud's death drive--the drive toward total quiescence and dissolution. I have associated the differences between the two films with changes in society in the past decades, and especially with changes in traditionally conceived gender roles and their associated senses of gender identity. Finally, I have suggested that we view these historical changes not as signs of societal regression but as the beginnings of the failure of one set of defense mechanisms that can possibly allow an opening to try out new strategies.

  15. Status of high temperature superconductor cable and fault current limiter projects at American Superconductor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maguire, J.F.; Yuan, J.

    2009-01-01

    This paper will describe the status of three key programs currently underway at American Superconductor Corp. The first program is the LIPA project which is a transmission voltage high temperature superconducting cable program, with funding support from the US Department of Energy. The 600 m cable, capable of carrying 574 MVA, was successfully installed and commissioned in LIPA grid on April 22, 2008. An overview of the project, system level design details and operational data will be provided. In addition, the status of the newly awarded LIPA II project will be described. The second program is Project Hydra, with funding support from the US Department of Homeland Security, to design, develop and demonstrate an HTS cable with fault current limiting functionality. The cable is 300 m long and is being designed to carry 96 MVA at a distribution level voltage of 13.8 kV. The cable will be permanently installed and energized in Manhattan, New York in 2010. The initial status of Project Hydra will be presented. The final program to be discussed is a transmission voltage, high temperature superconducting fault current limiter funded by the US DOE. The project encompasses the design, construction and test of a 115 kV FCL for power transmission within a time frame of 4-5 years. Installation and testing are planned for a Southern California Edison substation. A project overview and progress under the first phase will be reported.

  16. Status of high temperature superconductor cable and fault current limiter projects at American Superconductor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maguire, J.F., E-mail: jmaguire@amsc.co [American Superconductor Co., 64 Jackson Road, Devens, MA 01434 (United States); Yuan, J. [American Superconductor Co., 64 Jackson Road, Devens, MA 01434 (United States)

    2009-10-15

    This paper will describe the status of three key programs currently underway at American Superconductor Corp. The first program is the LIPA project which is a transmission voltage high temperature superconducting cable program, with funding support from the US Department of Energy. The 600 m cable, capable of carrying 574 MVA, was successfully installed and commissioned in LIPA grid on April 22, 2008. An overview of the project, system level design details and operational data will be provided. In addition, the status of the newly awarded LIPA II project will be described. The second program is Project Hydra, with funding support from the US Department of Homeland Security, to design, develop and demonstrate an HTS cable with fault current limiting functionality. The cable is 300 m long and is being designed to carry 96 MVA at a distribution level voltage of 13.8 kV. The cable will be permanently installed and energized in Manhattan, New York in 2010. The initial status of Project Hydra will be presented. The final program to be discussed is a transmission voltage, high temperature superconducting fault current limiter funded by the US DOE. The project encompasses the design, construction and test of a 115 kV FCL for power transmission within a time frame of 4-5 years. Installation and testing are planned for a Southern California Edison substation. A project overview and progress under the first phase will be reported.

  17. Status of high temperature superconductor cable and fault current limiter projects at American Superconductor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maguire, J. F.; Yuan, J.

    2009-10-01

    This paper will describe the status of three key programs currently underway at American Superconductor Corp. The first program is the LIPA project which is a transmission voltage high temperature superconducting cable program, with funding support from the US Department of Energy. The 600 m cable, capable of carrying 574 MVA, was successfully installed and commissioned in LIPA grid on April 22, 2008. An overview of the project, system level design details and operational data will be provided. In addition, the status of the newly awarded LIPA II project will be described. The second program is Project Hydra, with funding support from the US Department of Homeland Security, to design, develop and demonstrate an HTS cable with fault current limiting functionality. The cable is 300 m long and is being designed to carry 96 MVA at a distribution level voltage of 13.8 kV. The cable will be permanently installed and energized in Manhattan, New York in 2010. The initial status of Project Hydra will be presented. The final program to be discussed is a transmission voltage, high temperature superconducting fault current limiter funded by the US DOE. The project encompasses the design, construction and test of a 115 kV FCL for power transmission within a time frame of 4-5 years. Installation and testing are planned for a Southern California Edison substation. A project overview and progress under the first phase will be reported.

  18. A quality improvement project to improve admission temperatures in very low birth weight infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, H C; Ho, Q T; Rhine, W D

    2008-11-01

    To review the results of a quality improvement (QI) project to improve admission temperatures of very low birth weight inborn infants. The neonatal intensive care unit at Lucile Packard Children's Hospital underwent a QI project to address hypothermic preterm newborns by staff education and implementing processes such as polyethylene wraps and chemical warming mattresses. We performed retrospective chart review of all inborn infants with birth weight project. The improvement was consistent and persisted over a 15-month period. After risk adjustment, the strongest predictor of hypothermia was being born in the period before implementation of the QI project (odds ratio 8.12, 95% confidence interval 4.63, 14.22). Although cesarean delivery was a strong risk factor for hypothermia prior to the project, it was no longer significant after the project. There was no significant difference in death or intraventricular hemorrhage detected between periods. There was a significant improvement in admission temperatures after a QI project, which persisted beyond the initial implementation period. Although there was no difference in mortality or intraventricular hemorrhage rates, we did not have sufficient power to detect small differences in these outcomes.

  19. The impact of Mediterranean oscillations on periodicity and trend of temperature in the valley of the Nisava River: A fourier and wavelet approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martić-Bursać Nataša M.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Periodicity of temperature on three stations in the Nisava River valley in period 1949-2014, has been analyzed by means of Fourier and wavelet transforms. Combined periodogram based on fast Fourier transform shows considerable similarity among individual series and identifies significant periods on 2.2, 2.7, 3.3, 5, 6-7, and 8.2 years in all datasets. Wavelet coherence analysis connects strongest 6-7 years spectral component to Mediterranean oscillation, starting in 1980s. Combined periodogram of Mediterranean oscillation index reveals 6-7 years spectral component as a dominant mode in period 1949-2014. Wavelet power spectra and partial combined periodograms show absence of 6-7 years component before 1975, after which this component becomes dominant in the spectrum. Consistency between alternation in temperature trend in the Nisava River valley and change in periodicity of Mediterranean oscillation was found. [Project of the Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, Grant no. OI176008

  20. Evolutionary force in confamiliar marine vertebrates of different temperature realms: adaptive trends in zoarcid fish transcriptomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Windisch Heidrun Sigrid

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Studies of temperature-induced adaptation on the basis of genomic sequence data were mainly done in extremophiles. Although the general hypothesis of an increased molecular flexibility in the cold is widely accepted, the results of thermal adaptation are still difficult to detect at proteomic down to the genomic sequence level. Approaches towards a more detailed picture emerge with the advent of new sequencing technologies. Only small changes in primary protein structure have been shown to modify kinetic and thermal properties of enzymes, but likewise for interspecies comparisons a high genetic identity is still essential to specify common principles. The present study uses comprehensive transcriptomic sequence information to uncover general patterns of thermal adaptation on the RNA as well as protein primary structure. Results By comparing orthologous sequences of two closely related zoarcid fish inhabiting different latitudinal zones (Antarctica: Pachycara brachycephalum, temperate zone: Zoarces viviparus we were able to detect significant differences in the codon usage. In the cold-adapted species a lower GC content in the wobble position prevailed for preserved amino acids. We were able to estimate 40-60% coverage of the functions represented within the two compared zoarcid cDNA-libraries on the basis of a reference genome of the phylogenetically closely related fish Gasterosteus aculeatus. A distinct pattern of amino acid substitutions could be identified for the non-synonymous codon exchanges, with a remarkable surplus of serine and reduction of glutamic acid and asparagine for the Antarctic species. Conclusion Based on the differences between orthologous sequences from confamiliar species, distinguished mainly by the temperature regimes of their habitats, we hypothesize that temperature leaves a signature on the composition of biological macromolecules (RNA, proteins with implications for the transcription and

  1. High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble Projections of Future Extreme Temperature Distributions for the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Kotamarthi, V. Rao

    2017-12-01

    The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary conditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal-length time slices (2045-2054 and 2085-2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995-2004). Probability density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm-side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have a less significant warm-side shift with decreased variability. Using "business-as-usual" scenario, 5-day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5-10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥95°F days will increase by 1-2 months by the end of the century.

  2. Climate change impacts on projections of excess mortality at 2030 using spatially varying ozone-temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    We project the change in ozone-related mortality burden attributable to changes in climate between a historical (1995-2005) and near-future (2025-2035) time period while incorporating a non-linear and synergistic effect of ozone and temperature on mortality. We simulate air quali...

  3. EMPRESS: A European Project to Enhance Process Control Through Improved Temperature Measurement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearce, J. V.; Edler, F.; Elliott, C. J.; Rosso, L.; Sutton, G.; Andreu, A.; Machin, G.

    2017-08-01

    A new European project called EMPRESS, funded by the EURAMET program `European Metrology Program for Innovation and Research,' is described. The 3 year project, which started in the summer of 2015, is intended to substantially augment the efficiency of high-value manufacturing processes by improving temperature measurement techniques at the point of use. The project consortium has 18 partners and 5 external collaborators, from the metrology sector, high-value manufacturing, sensor manufacturing, and academia. Accurate control of temperature is key to ensuring process efficiency and product consistency and is often not achieved to the level required for modern processes. Enhanced efficiency of processes may take several forms including reduced product rejection/waste; improved energy efficiency; increased intervals between sensor recalibration/maintenance; and increased sensor reliability, i.e., reduced amount of operator intervention. Traceability of temperature measurements to the International Temperature Scale of 1990 (ITS-90) is a critical factor in establishing low measurement uncertainty and reproducible, consistent process control. Introducing such traceability in situ (i.e., within the industrial process) is a theme running through this project.

  4. Terms, Trends, and Insights: PV Project Finance in the United States, 2017

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Feldman, David J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Schwabe, Paul D [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-10-23

    This brief is a compilation of data points and market insights that reflect the state of the project finance market for solar photovoltaic (PV) assets in the United States as of the third quarter of 2017. This information can generally be used as a simplified benchmark of the costs associated with securing financing for solar PV as well as the cost of the financing itself (i.e., the cost of capital). This work represents the second DOE sponsored effort to benchmark financing costs across the residential, commercial, and utility-scale PV markets, as part of its larger effort to benchmark the components of PV system costs.

  5. Time Trends and Predictors of Abnormal Postoperative Body Temperature in Infants Transported to the Intensive Care Unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hedwig Schroeck

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Despite increasing adoption of active warming methods over the recent years, little is known about the effectiveness of these interventions on the occurrence of abnormal postoperative temperatures in sick infants. Methods. Preoperative and postoperative temperature readings, patient characteristics, and procedural factors of critically ill infants at a single institution were retrieved retrospectively from June 2006 until May 2014. The primary endpoints were the incidence and trend of postoperative hypothermia and hyperthermia on arrival at the intensive care units. Univariate and adjusted analyses were performed to identify factors independently associated with abnormal postoperative temperatures. Results. 2,350 cases were included. 82% were normothermic postoperatively, while hypothermia and hyperthermia each occurred in 9% of cases. During the study period, hypothermia decreased from 24% to 2% (p<0.0001 while hyperthermia remained unchanged (13% in 2006, 8% in 2014, p=0.357. Factors independently associated with hypothermia were higher ASA status (p=0.02, lack of intraoperative convective warming (p<0.001 and procedure date before 2010 (p<0.001. Independent associations for postoperative hyperthermia included lower body weight (p=0.01 and procedure date before 2010 (p<0.001. Conclusions. We report an increase in postoperative normothermia rates in critically ill infants from 2006 until 2014. Careful monitoring to avoid overcorrection and hyperthermia is recommended.

  6. Recent sea surface temperature trends and future scenarios for the Mediterranean Sea:

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Shaltout

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available We analyse recent Mediterranean Sea surface temperatures (SSTs and their response to global change using 1/4-degree gridded advanced very-high-resolution radiometer (AVHRR daily SST data, 1982-2012. These data indicate significant annual warming (from 0.24°C decade-1 west of the Strait of Gibraltar to 0.51°C decade-1 over the Black Sea and significant spatial variation in annual average SST (from 15ºC over the Black Sea to 21°C over the Levantine sub-basin. Ensemble mean scenarios indicate that the study area SST may experience significant warming, peaking at 2.6°C century-1 in the Representative Concentration Pathways 85 (RCP85 scenario.

  7. Recent sea surface temperature trends and future scenarios for the Mediterranean Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Shaltout

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available We analyse recent Mediterranean Sea surface temperatures (SSTs and their response to global change using 1/4-degree gridded advanced very-high-resolution radiometer (AVHRR daily SST data, 1982–2012. These data indicate significant annual warming (from 0.24 °C decade−1 west of the Strait of Gibraltar to 0.51 °C decade−1 over the Black Sea and significant spatial variation in annual average SST (from 15 °C over the Black Sea to 21 °C over the Levantine sub-basin. Ensemble mean scenarios indicate that the study area SST may experience significant warming, peaking at 2.6 °C century−1 in the Representative Concentration Pathways 85 (RCP85 scenario.

  8. The upper end of climate model temperature projections is inconsistent with past warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stott, Peter; Good, Peter; Jones, Gareth; Gillett, Nathan; Hawkins, Ed

    2013-01-01

    Climate models predict a large range of possible future temperatures for a particular scenario of future emissions of greenhouse gases and other anthropogenic forcings of climate. Given that further warming in coming decades could threaten increasing risks of climatic disruption, it is important to determine whether model projections are consistent with temperature changes already observed. This can be achieved by quantifying the extent to which increases in well mixed greenhouse gases and changes in other anthropogenic and natural forcings have already altered temperature patterns around the globe. Here, for the first time, we combine multiple climate models into a single synthesized estimate of future warming rates consistent with past temperature changes. We show that the observed evolution of near-surface temperatures appears to indicate lower ranges (5–95%) for warming (0.35–0.82 K and 0.45–0.93 K by the 2020s (2020–9) relative to 1986–2005 under the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios respectively) than the equivalent ranges projected by the CMIP5 climate models (0.48–1.00 K and 0.51–1.16 K respectively). Our results indicate that for each RCP the upper end of the range of CMIP5 climate model projections is inconsistent with past warming. (letter)

  9. Projecting future temperature-related mortality in three largest Australian cities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo, Yuming; Li, Shanshan; Liu, De Li; Chen, Dong; Williams, Gail; Tong, Shilu

    2016-01-01

    We estimated net annual temperature-related mortality in Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in Australia using 62 global climate model projections under three IPPC SRES CO_2 emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1). In all cities, all scenarios resulted in increases in summer temperature-related deaths for future decades, and decreases in winter temperature-related deaths. However, Brisbane and Sydney will increase the net annual temperature-related deaths in the future, while a slight decrease will happen in Melbourne. Additionally, temperature-related mortality will largely increase beyond the summer (including January, February, March, November and December) in Brisbane and Sydney, while temperature-related mortality will largely decrease beyond the winter in Melbourne. In conclusion, temperature increases for Australia are expected to result in a decreased burden of cold-related mortality and an increased burden of heat-related mortality, but the balance of these differences varied by city. In particular, the seasonal patterns in temperature-related deaths will be shifted. - Temperature increases result in a decreased burden of cold-related mortality and an increased burden of heat-related mortality, but the balance of these differences varied by city in Australia.

  10. On the mechanisms of late 20th century sea-surface temperature trends over the Antarctic Circumpolar Current

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kravtsov, Sergey; Kamenkovich, Igor; Hogg, Andrew M.; Peters, John M.

    2011-11-01

    The Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), with its associated three-dimensional circulation, plays an important role in global climate. This study concentrates on surface signatures of recent climate change in the ACC region and on mechanisms that control this change. Examination of climate model simulations shows that they match the observed late 20th century sea-surface temperature (SST) trends averaged over this region quite well, despite underestimating the observed surface-wind increases. Such wind increases, however, are expected to lead to significant cooling of the region, contradicting the observed SST trends. Motivated by recent theories of the ACC response to variable wind and radiative forcing, the authors used two idealized models to assess contributions of various dynamical processes to the SST evolution in the region. In particular, a high-resolution channel model of the ACC responds to increasing winds by net surface ACC warming due to enhanced mesoscale turbulence and associated heat transports in the mixed layer. These fluxes, modeled, in a highly idealized fashion, via increased lateral surface mixing in a coarse-resolution hybrid climate model, substantially offset zonally non-uniform surface cooling due to air-sea flux and Ekman-transport anomalies. These results suggest that the combination of these opposing effects must be accounted for when estimating climate response to any external forcing in the ACC region.

  11. Recent Trends in Theory Use and Application within the Project Management Discipline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathan Johnson

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The following paper highlights the theories used to further project management (PM research spanning the 15 year time period of 1999-2013. The analysis examined 273 articles drawn from seven widely recognized PM journals with the aim of uncovering the most utilized theories in the discipline’s academic investigations. The review found these theories to be: Stakeholder Theory (ST, Fuzzy Sets Theory (FST, Utility Theory (UT, Theory of Constraints (TOC, and Actor-Network Theory (ANT. This collection of theories represents a diverse group of thought constituting a large portion of the PM literature’s theoretical foundations. Both UT and TOC have diminished in popularity while ANT and ST have improved in favor; FST has remained consistent in its use. The appendix to this manuscript includes a “ready reference” of all the theories utilized in PM research found within the reviewed journal outlets from the 15 year review period.

  12. Trends and Projected Estimates of GHG Emissions from Indian Livestock in Comparisons with GHG Emissions from World and Developing Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amlan Kumar Patra

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This study presents trends and projected estimates of methane and nitrous oxide emissions from livestock of India vis-à-vis world and developing countries over the period 1961 to 2010 estimated based on IPCC guidelines. World enteric methane emission (EME increased by 54.3% (61.5 to 94.9 ×109 kg annually from the year 1961 to 2010, and the highest annual growth rate (AGR was noted for goat (2.0%, followed by buffalo (1.57% and swine (1.53%. Global EME is projected to increase to 120×109 kg by 2050. The percentage increase in EME by Indian livestock was greater than world livestock (70.6% vs 54.3% between the years 1961 to 2010, and AGR was highest for goat (1.91%, followed by buffalo (1.55%, swine (1.28%, sheep (1.25% and cattle (0.70%. In India, total EME was projected to grow by 18.8×109 kg in 2050. Global methane emission from manure (MEM increased from 6.81 ×109 kg in 1961 to 11.4×109 kg in 2010 (an increase of 67.6%, and is projected to grow to 15×109 kg by 2050. In India, the annual MEM increased from 0.52×109 kg to 1.1×109 kg (with an AGR of 1.57% in this period, which could increase to 1.54×109 kg in 2050. Nitrous oxide emission from manure in India could be 21.4×106 kg in 2050 from 15.3×106 kg in 2010. The AGR of global GHG emissions changed a small extent (only 0.11% from developed countries, but increased drastically (1.23% for developing countries between the periods of 1961 to 2010. Major contributions to world GHG came from cattle (79.3%, swine (9.57% and sheep (7.40%, and for developing countries from cattle (68.3%, buffalo (13.7% and goat (5.4%. The increase of GHG emissions by Indian livestock was less (74% vs 82% over the period of 1961 to 2010 than the developing countries. With this trend, world GHG emissions could reach 3,520×109 kg CO2-eq by 2050 due to animal population growth driven by increased demands for meat and dairy products in the world.

  13. Comment on “Long-term trends in thermospheric neutral temperatures and density above Millstone Hill” by W. L. Oliver et al

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Laštovička, Jan

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 120, č. 3 (2015), s. 2347-2349 ISSN 2169-9380 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP209/10/1792; GA ČR GA15-03909S Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : ionosphere * thermosphere * long-term trends * drivers of trends Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 3.318, year: 2015 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014JA020864/abstract

  14. Weather Type classification over Chile; patterns, trends, and impact in precipitation and temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frias, T.; Trigo, R. M.; Garreaud, R.

    2009-04-01

    The Andes Cordillera induces considerable disturbances on the structure and evolution of the pressure systems that influences South America. Different weather types for southern South America are derived from the daily maps of geopotential height at 850hPa corresponding to a 42 year period, spanning from 1958 to 2000. Here we have used the ECWMF ERA-40 reanalysis dataset to construct an automated version of the Lamb Weather type (WTs) classification scheme (Jones et al., 1993) developed for the UK. We have identified 8 basic WTs (Cyclonic, Anticyclonic and 6 main directional types) following a similar methodology to that previously adopted by Trigo and DaCamara, 2000 (for Iberia). This classification was applied to two regions of study (CLnorth and CLsouth) which differ 20° in latitude, so that the vast Chile territory could be covered. Then were assessed the impact of the occurrence of this weather types in precipitation in Chile, as well as in the distribution of precipitation and temperature fields (reanalysis data) in southern half of South America. The results allow to conclude that the precipitation in central region of Chile is largely linked with the class occurrence (concerning CLnorth) of cyclonic circulation and of West quadrant (SW, W and NW), despite of it's relatively low frequency. In CLsouth, for its part, it is verified that the most frequent circulation is from the west quadrant, although the associated amount of rainfall is lower than in CLnorth. There was also a general decrease of precipitation at local weather stations chosen in the considered period of study, particularly in austral winter.

  15. Greenhouse gas emission trends and projections in Europe 2012. Tracking progress towards Kyoto and 2020 targets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gores, S.; Scheffler, M.; Graichen, V. [Oeko-Institut (Oeko), Freiburg (Germany)] [and others

    2012-10-15

    At the end of 2011, almost all European countries were on track towards their Kyoto targets for 2008-2012. The EU-15 also remained on track to achieve its Kyoto target. Italy, however, was not on track. Spain plans to acquire a large quantity of Kyoto units through the KP's flexible mechanisms to achieve its target. With emission caps already set for the economic sectors under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), emissions reductions during 2012 in the sectors outside the EU ETS together with reductions by carbon sinks will set the frame for how many Kyoto units Member States need to acquire to reach their individual targets. Hence, both the development and delivery of adequate plans to acquire enough Kyoto credits is becoming increasingly important. ETS emissions from 2008 to 2011 were on average 5 % below these caps, which results in an oversupply of allowances. The EU ETS is undergoing important changes in view of the third trading phase from 2013 to 2020. Most EU Member States project that in 2020, their emissions outside the EU ETS will be lower than their national targets set under the Climate and Energy Package. However, further efforts will be necessary to achieve longer term reductions. (Author)

  16. Changes in record-breaking temperature events in China and projections for the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Hanqing; Liu, Chun; Lu, Yanyu; He, Dongyan; Tian, Hong

    2017-06-01

    As global warming intensifies, more record-breaking (RB) temperature events are reported in many places around the world where temperatures are higher than ever before http://cn.bing.com/dict/search?q=.&FORM=BDVSP6&mkt=zh-cn. The RB temperatures have caused severe impacts on ecosystems and human society. Here, we address changes in RB temperature events occurring over China in the past (1961-2014) as well as future projections (2006-2100) using observational data and the newly available simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The number of RB events has a significant multi-decadal variability in China, and the intensity expresses a strong decrease from 1961 to 2014. However, more frequent RB events occurred in mid-eastern and northeastern China over last 30 years (1981-2010). Comparisons with observational data indicate multi-model ensemble (MME) simulations from the CMIP5 model perform well in simulating RB events for the historical run period (1961-2005). CMIP5 MME shows a relatively larger uncertainty for the change in intensity. From 2051 to 2100, fewer RB events are projected to occur in most parts of China according to RCP 2.6 scenarios. Over the longer period from 2006 to 2100, a remarkable increase is expected for the entire country according to RCP 8.5 scenarios and the maximum numbers of RB events increase by approximately 600 per year at end of twenty-first century.

  17. Projections of Rainfall and Surface Temperature from CMIP5 Models under RCP4.5 and 8.5 over BIMSTEC Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charan Pattnayak, Kanhu; Kar, Sarat Chandra; Kumari Pattnayak, Rashmita

    2015-04-01

    Rainfall and surface temperature are the most important climatic variables in the context of climate change. Thus, these variables simulated from fifth phase of the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) models have been compared against Climatic Research Unit (CRU) observed data and projected for the twenty first century under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios. Results for the seven countries under Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) such as Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand have been examined. Six CMIP5 models namely GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2M, GFDL-ESM2G, HadGEM2-AO, HadGEM2-CC and HadGEM2-ES have been chosen for this study. The study period has been considered is from 1861 to 2100. From this period, initial 145 years i.e. 1861 to 2005 is reference or historical period and the later 95 years i.e. 2005 to 2100 is projected period. The climate change in the projected period has been examined with respect to the reference period. In order to validate the models, the mean annual rainfall and temperature has been compared with CRU over the reference period 1901 to 2005. Comparison reveals that most of the models are able to capture the spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature over most of the regions of BIMSTEC countries. Therefore these model data can be used to study the future changes in the 21st Century. Four out six models shows that the rainfall over Central and North India, Thailand and eastern part of Myanmar shows decreasing trend and Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka shows an increasing trend in both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. In case of temperature, all of the models show an increasing trend over all the BIMSTEC countries in both scenarios, however, the rate of increase is relatively less over Sri Lanka than the other countries. Annual cycles of rainfall and temperature over Bangladesh, Myanmar and Thailand

  18. Radiation and temperature effects on electronic components investigated under the CSTI high capacity power project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwarze, G.E.; Niedra, J.M.; Frasca, A.J.; Wieserman, W.R.

    1993-01-01

    The effects of nuclear radiation and high temperature environments must be fully known and understood for the electronic components and materials used in both the Power Conditioning and Control subsystem and the reactor Instrumentation and Control subsystem of future high capacity nuclear space power systems. This knowledge is required by the designer of these subsystems in order to develop highly reliable, long-life power systems for future NASA missions. A review and summary of the experimental results obtained for the electronic components and materials investigated under the power management element of the CSTI high capacity power project will be presented in this paper: (1) Neutron, gamma ray, and temperature effects on power semiconductor switches, (2) Temperature and frequency effects on soft magnetic materials; and (3) Temperature effects on rare-earth permanent magnets

  19. Radiation and temperature effects on electronic components investigated under the CSTI High Capacity Power Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shwarze, G.E.; Wieserman, W.R.

    1994-01-01

    The effects of nuclear radiation and high temperature environments must be fully known and understood for the electronic components and materials used in both the Power Conditioning and Control subsystem and the reactor Instrumentation and Control subsystem of future high capacity nuclear space power systems. This knowledge is required by the designer of these subsystems in order to develop highly reliable, long-life power systems for future NASA missions. A review and summary of the experimental results obtained for the electronic components and materials investigated under the power management element of the CSTI high capacity power project will be presented in this paper: (1) Neutron, gamma ray, and temperature effects on power semiconductor switches, (2) Temperature and frequency effects on soft magnetic materials; and (3) Temperature effects on rare earth permanent magnets

  20. Large-screen display industry: market and technology trends for direct view and projection displays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castellano, Joseph A.; Mentley, David E.

    1996-03-01

    Large screen information displays are defined as dynamic electronic displays that can be viewed by more than one person and are at least 2-feet wide. These large area displays for public viewing provide convenience, entertainment, security, and efficiency to the viewers. There are numerous uses for large screen information displays including those in advertising, transportation, traffic control, conference room presentations, computer aided design, banking, and military command/control. A noticeable characteristic of the large screen display market is the interchangeability of display types. For any given application, the user can usually choose from at least three alternative technologies, and sometimes from many more. Some display types have features that make them suitable for specific applications due to temperature, brightness, power consumption, or other such characteristic. The overall worldwide unit consumption of large screen information displays of all types and for all applications (excluding consumer TV) will increase from 401,109 units in 1995 to 655,797 units in 2002. On a unit consumption basis, applications in business and education represent the largest share of unit consumption over this time period; in 1995, this application represented 69.7% of the total. The market (value of shipments) will grow from DOL3.1 billion in 1995 to DOL3.9 billion in 2002. The market will be dominated by front LCD projectors and LCD overhead projector plates.

  1. A three-stage hybrid model for regionalization, trends and sensitivity analyses of temperature anomalies in China from 1966 to 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Feifei; Yang, XiaoHua; Shen, Zhenyao

    2018-06-01

    Temperature anomalies have received increasing attention due to their potentially severe impacts on ecosystems, economy and human health. To facilitate objective regionalization and examine regional temperature anomalies, a three-stage hybrid model with stages of regionalization, trends and sensitivity analyses was developed. Annual mean and extreme temperatures were analyzed using the daily data collected from 537 stations in China from 1966 to 2015, including the annual mean, minimum and maximum temperatures (Tm, TNm and TXm) as well as the extreme minimum and maximum temperatures (TNe and TXe). The results showed the following: (1) subregions with coherent temperature changes were identified using the rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis and K-means clustering algorithm. The numbers of subregions were 6, 7, 8, 9 and 8 for Tm, TNm, TXm, TNe and TXe, respectively. (2) Significant increases in temperature were observed in most regions of China from 1966 to 2015, although warming slowed down over the last decade. This warming primarily featured a remarkable increase in its minimum temperature. For Tm and TNm, 95% of the stations showed a significant upward trend at the 99% confidence level. TNe increased the fastest, at a rate of 0.56 °C/decade, whereas 21% of the stations in TXe showed a downward trend. (3) The mean temperatures (Tm, TNm and TXm) in the high-latitude regions increased more quickly than those in the low-latitude regions. The maximum temperature increased significantly at high elevations, whereas the minimum temperature increased greatly at middle-low elevations. The most pronounced warming occurred in eastern China in TNe and northwestern China in TXe, with mean elevations of 51 m and 2098 m, respectively. A cooling trend in TXe was observed at the northwestern end of China. The warming rate in TNe varied the most among the subregions (0.63 °C/decade).

  2. Utility-Scale Solar 2016: An Empirical Analysis of Project Cost, Performance, and Pricing Trends in the United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bolinger, Mark; Seel, Joachim; LaCommare, Kristina Hamachi

    2017-09-19

    The utility-scale solar sector has led the overall U.S. solar market in terms of installed capacity since 2012. In 2016, the utility-scale sector installed more than 2.5 times as much new capacity as did the residential and commercial sectors combined, and is expected to maintain its dominant position for at least another five years. This report—the fifth edition in an ongoing annual series—provides data-driven analysis of the utility-scale solar project fleet in the United States. We analyze not just installed project prices, but also operating costs, capacity factors, and power purchase agreement ("PPA") prices from a large sample of utility-scale PV and CSP projects throughout the United States. Highlights from this year's edition include the following: Installation Trends: The use of solar tracking devices dominated 2016 installations, at nearly 80% of all new capacity. In a reflection of the ongoing geographic expansion of the market beyond California and the Southwest, the median long-term average insolation level at newly built project sites declined again in 2016. While new fixed-tilt projects are now seen predominantly in less-sunny regions, tracking projects are increasingly pushing into these same regions. The median inverter loading ratio has stabilized in 2016 at 1.3 for both tracking and fixed-tilt projects. Installed Prices: Median installed PV project prices within a sizable sample have fallen by two-thirds since the 2007-2009 period, to $2.2/WAC (or $1.7/WDC) for projects completed in 2016. The lowest 20th percentile of projects within our 2016 sample were priced at or below $2.0/WAC, with the lowest-priced projects around $1.5/WAC. Overall price dispersion across the entire sample and across geographic regions decreased significantly in 2016. Operation and Maintenance (“O&M”) Costs: What limited empirical O&M cost data are publicly available suggest that PV O&M costs were in the neighborhood of $18/kWAC-year, or $8/MWh, in 2016. These

  3. Estimation of weld nugget temperature by thermography method in resistance projection welding process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Setty, D.S.; Rameswara Roa, A.; Hemantha Rao, G.V.S.; Jaya Raj, R.N.

    2008-01-01

    In the Pressurized Heavy Water Reactor (PHWR) fuel manufacturing, zirconium alloy appendages like spacer and bearing pads are welded to the thin wall zirconium alloy fuel tubes by using resistance projection welding process. Out of many joining processes available, resistance-welding process is reliable, environment friendly and best suitable for mass production applications. In the fuel assembly, spacer pads are used to get the required inter-element spacing and Bearing pads are used to get the required load-bearing surface for the fuel assembly. Performance of the fuel assembly in the reactor is greatly influenced by these weld joint's quality. Phase transformation from α to β phase is not acceptable while welding these tiny appendages. At present only destructive metallography test is available for this purpose. This can also be achieved by measuring weld nugget temperature where in the phase transformation temperature for zirconium alloy material is 853 o C. The temperature distribution during resistance welding of tiny parts cannot be measured by conventional methods due to very small space and short weld times involved in the process. Shear strength, dimensional accuracy and weld microstructures are some of the key parameters used to measure the quality of appendage weld joints. Weld parameters were optimized with the help of industrial experimentation methodology. Individual projection welding by split electrode concept, and during welding on empty tube firm support is achieved on inner side of the tube by using expandable pneumatic mandrel. In the present paper, an attempt was made to measure the weld nugget temperature by thermography technique and is correlated with standard microstructures of zirconium alloy material. The temperature profiles in the welding process are presented for different welding conditions. This technique has helped in measuring the weld nugget temperature more accurately. It was observed that in the present appendage welding

  4. The international project on innovative nuclear reactors and fuel cycles (INPRO) - status and trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gowin, Peter J.; Beatty, Randy L.

    2010-01-01

    The International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO) was initiated in 2000. As of April 2010, INPRO has 31 members and is implementing activities in five programme areas: A: Nuclear Energy System Assessments (NESA) using the INPRO Methodology Assisting Member States in performing Nuclear Energy System Assessments (NESA) using the INPRO methodology, in support of long-term strategic planning and nuclear energy deployment decision making. B: Global Vision Developing global and regional nuclear energy scenarios, on the basis of a scientific-technical pathway analysis, that lead to a global vision on sustainable nuclear energy development in the 21. century, and supporting Member States in working towards that vision. C: Innovations in Nuclear Technology Fostering collaboration among INPRO Member States on selected innovative nuclear technologies and related R and D that contribute to sustainable nuclear energy. D: Innovations in Institutional Arrangements Investigating and fostering collaboration on innovative institutional and legal arrangements for the use of innovative nuclear systems in the 21. century and supporting Member States in developing and implementing such innovative arrangements. E: INPRO Dialogue Forum Bringing together technology holders and technology users to discuss, debate and share information on desirable innovations, both technical and institutional, but also national long-term nuclear planning strategies and approaches and, on the highest level, the global nuclear energy system. The paper presents main INPRO achievements to date, the current status of activities in these five programme areas and recent INPRO publications, in particular in support of nuclear energy system assessments (NESA) using the INPRO methodology. (authors)

  5. A second hydrocarbon boom threatens the Peruvian Amazon: trends, projections, and policy implications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Finer, Matt [Save America' s Forests, 4 Library Court NW, Washington, DC 20003 (United States); Orta-Martinez, Marti, E-mail: matt@saveamericasforests.or, E-mail: martiorta@gmail.co [Institut de Ciencia i Tecnologia Ambiental, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, 08193 Bellaterra (Barcelona) (Spain)

    2010-01-15

    The Peruvian Amazon is home to extraordinary biological and cultural diversity, and vast swaths of this mega-diverse region remain largely intact. Recent analysis indicates, however, that the rapid proliferation of oil and gas exploration zones now threatens the region's biodiversity, indigenous peoples, and wilderness areas. To better elucidate this dynamic situation, we analyzed official Peruvian government hydrocarbon information and generated a quantitative analysis of the past, present, and future of oil and gas activities in the Peruvian Amazon. We document an extensive hydrocarbon history for the region-over 104 000 km of seismic lines and 679 exploratory and production wells-highlighted by a major exploration boom in the early 1970s. We show that an unprecedented 48.6% of the Peruvian Amazon has been recently covered by oil and gas concessions, up from just 7.1% in 2003. These oil and gas concessions overlap 17.1% of the Peruvian Amazon protected area system and over half of all titled indigenous lands. Moreover, we found that up to 72% of the Peruvian Amazon has been zoned for hydrocarbon activities (concessions plus technical evaluation agreements and proposed concessions) in the past two years, and over 84% at some point during the past 40 years. We project that the recent rapid proliferation of hydrocarbon zones will lead to a second exploration boom, characterized by over 20 000 km of new seismic testing and construction of over 180 new exploratory wells in remote, intact, and sensitive forest areas. As the Peruvian Amazon oil frontier rapidly expands, we conclude that a rigorous policy debate is urgently needed in order to avoid the major environmental impacts associated with the first exploration boom of the 1970s and to minimize the social conflict that recently led to deadly encounters between indigenous protesters and government forces.

  6. A second hydrocarbon boom threatens the Peruvian Amazon: trends, projections, and policy implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finer, Matt; Orta-Martinez, Marti

    2010-01-01

    The Peruvian Amazon is home to extraordinary biological and cultural diversity, and vast swaths of this mega-diverse region remain largely intact. Recent analysis indicates, however, that the rapid proliferation of oil and gas exploration zones now threatens the region's biodiversity, indigenous peoples, and wilderness areas. To better elucidate this dynamic situation, we analyzed official Peruvian government hydrocarbon information and generated a quantitative analysis of the past, present, and future of oil and gas activities in the Peruvian Amazon. We document an extensive hydrocarbon history for the region-over 104 000 km of seismic lines and 679 exploratory and production wells-highlighted by a major exploration boom in the early 1970s. We show that an unprecedented 48.6% of the Peruvian Amazon has been recently covered by oil and gas concessions, up from just 7.1% in 2003. These oil and gas concessions overlap 17.1% of the Peruvian Amazon protected area system and over half of all titled indigenous lands. Moreover, we found that up to 72% of the Peruvian Amazon has been zoned for hydrocarbon activities (concessions plus technical evaluation agreements and proposed concessions) in the past two years, and over 84% at some point during the past 40 years. We project that the recent rapid proliferation of hydrocarbon zones will lead to a second exploration boom, characterized by over 20 000 km of new seismic testing and construction of over 180 new exploratory wells in remote, intact, and sensitive forest areas. As the Peruvian Amazon oil frontier rapidly expands, we conclude that a rigorous policy debate is urgently needed in order to avoid the major environmental impacts associated with the first exploration boom of the 1970s and to minimize the social conflict that recently led to deadly encounters between indigenous protesters and government forces.

  7. Status and trends of nuclear technologies - Report of the International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-09-01

    The International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO) was launched in the year 2000, based on a resolution by the IAEA General Conference (GC(44)/RES/21). INPRO intends to help to ensure that nuclear energy is available in the 21st century in a sustainable manner, and seeks to bring together all interested Member States, both technology holders and technology users, to consider, jointly, actions to achieve desired innovations. INPRO is taking care of the specific needs of developing countries. This IAEA publication is part of Phase 1 of INPRO. It intends to provide an overview on history, present situation and future perspectives of nuclear fuel cycle technologies. While this overview focuses on technical issues, nevertheless, the aspects of economics, environment, and safety and proliferation resistance are important background issues for this study. After a brief description about the INPRO project and an evaluation of existing and future reactor designs the publication covers nuclear fuel cycle issues in detail. It is expected that this documentation will provide IAEA Member States and their nuclear engineers and designers, as well as policy makers with useful information on status and trends of future nuclear fuel cycle technologies. Due to the size of the full report it was decided to create a summary of the information and attach a CD-ROM in the back of this summary report with the full text of the report

  8. Projections of the Population of the Republic of Croatia to the Year 2031: Can Migration Alleviate Future Negative Trends?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Snježana Mrđen

    2004-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents middle duration projections of Croatia’s population, until the year 2031, determined via the cohort-component method. It outlines eight variants derived from supposed hypotheses in regard to changing birth, migration and death rates. Differences in the variants are exclusively differences in birth and migration rates, since the assumptions in regard to the death rates are the same in all the variants. The corrected estimate of the population on January 1st 2001, according to the most recent census, served as the base population. The results of the projections indicate that in the next thirty years the overall and the natural population reduction of Croatia will continue, and at the end of the period (2031 the population will be demographically older than at the start (2001. The variants differ only in relation to the intensity (i.e. swiftness of the aging process, yet the direction remains the same. Thus, in the variant that assumes a positive migration balance, the process of aging would be somewhat slower. The only variant that assumes a constant proportion of young people (on the 2001 level, gradual demographic growth and at the end of the period a larger population than in 2001, is the variant based on a high birth rate and positive migration. The impact of migration is very important for future demographic processes. Namely, in the short run, migration cannot change the direction of demographic processes, but it can lessen already existing negative trends.

  9. Analysis of rainfall and temperature time series to detect long-term climatic trends and variability over semi-arid Botswana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byakatonda, Jimmy; Parida, B. P.; Kenabatho, Piet K.; Moalafhi, D. B.

    2018-03-01

    Arid and semi-arid environments have been identified with locations prone to impacts of climate variability and change. Investigating long-term trends is one way of tracing climate change impacts. This study investigates variability through annual and seasonal meteorological time series. Possible inhomogeneities and years of intervention are analysed using four absolute homogeneity tests. Trends in the climatic variables were determined using Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope estimator statistics. Association of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with local climate is also investigated through multivariate analysis. Results from the study show that rainfall time series are fully homogeneous with 78.6 and 50% of the stations for maximum and minimum temperature, respectively, showing homogeneity. Trends also indicate a general decrease of 5.8, 7.4 and 18.1% in annual, summer and winter rainfall, respectively. Warming trends are observed in annual and winter temperature at 0.3 and 1.5% for maximum temperature and 1.7 and 6.5% for minimum temperature, respectively. Rainfall reported a positive correlation with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and at the same time negative association with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). Strong relationships between SSTs and maximum temperature are observed during the El Niño and La Niña years. These study findings could facilitate planning and management of agricultural and water resources in Botswana.

  10. Identify temporal trend of air temperature and its impact on forest stream flow in Lower Mississippi River Alluvial Valley using wavelet analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouyang, Ying; Parajuli, Prem B; Li, Yide; Leininger, Theodor D; Feng, Gary

    2017-08-01

    Characterization of stream flow is essential to water resource management, water supply planning, environmental protection, and ecological restoration; while air temperature variation due to climate change can exacerbate stream flow and add instability to the flow. In this study, the wavelet analysis technique was employed to identify temporal trend of air temperature and its impact upon forest stream flows in Lower Mississippi River Alluvial Valley (LMRAV). Four surface water monitoring stations, which locate near the headwater areas with very few land use disturbances and the long-term data records (60-90 years) in the LMRAV, were selected to obtain stream discharge and air temperature data. The wavelet analysis showed that air temperature had an increasing temporal trend around its mean value during the past several decades in the LMRAV, whereas stream flow had a decreasing temporal trend around its average value at the same time period in the same region. Results of this study demonstrated that the climate in the LMRAV did get warmer as time elapsed and the streams were drier as a result of warmer air temperature. This study further revealed that the best way to estimate the temporal trends of air temperature and stream flow was to perform the wavelet transformation around their mean values. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  11. How many people will need palliative care in 2040? Past trends, future projections and implications for services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Etkind, S N; Bone, A E; Gomes, B; Lovell, N; Evans, C J; Higginson, I J; Murtagh, F E M

    2017-05-18

    Current estimates suggest that approximately 75% of people approaching the end-of-life may benefit from palliative care. The growing numbers of older people and increasing prevalence of chronic illness in many countries mean that more people may benefit from palliative care in the future, but this has not been quantified. The present study aims to estimate future population palliative care need in two high-income countries. We used mortality statistics for England and Wales from 2006 to 2014. Building on previous diagnosis-based approaches, we calculated age- and sex-specific proportions of deaths from defined chronic progressive illnesses to estimate the prevalence of palliative care need in the population. We calculated annual change over the 9-year period. Using explicit assumptions about change in disease prevalence over time, and official mortality forecasts, we modelled palliative care need up to 2040. We also undertook separate projections for dementia, cancer and organ failure. By 2040, annual deaths in England and Wales are projected to rise by 25.4% (from 501,424 in 2014 to 628,659). If age- and sex-specific proportions with palliative care needs remain the same as in 2014, the number of people requiring palliative care will grow by 25.0% (from 375,398 to 469,305 people/year). However, if the upward trend observed from 2006 to 2014 continues, the increase will be of 42.4% (161,842 more people/year, total 537,240). In addition, disease-specific projections show that dementia (increase from 59,199 to 219,409 deaths/year by 2040) and cancer (increase from 143,638 to 208,636 deaths by 2040) will be the main drivers of increased need. If recent mortality trends continue, 160,000 more people in England and Wales will need palliative care by 2040. Healthcare systems must now start to adapt to the age-related growth in deaths from chronic illness, by focusing on integration and boosting of palliative care across health and social care disciplines. Countries with

  12. Projected near-future levels of temperature and pCO2 reduce coral fertilization success.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca Albright

    Full Text Available Increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO2 are projected to contribute to a 1.1-6.4°C rise in global average surface temperatures and a 0.14-0.35 reduction in the average pH of the global surface ocean by 2100. If realized, these changes are expected to have negative consequences for reef-building corals including increased frequency and severity of coral bleaching and reduced rates of calcification and reef accretion. Much less is known regarding the independent and combined effects of temperature and pCO2 on critical early life history processes such as fertilization. Here we show that increases in temperature (+3°C and pCO2 (+400 µatm projected for this century negatively impact fertilization success of a common Indo-Pacific coral species, Acropora tenuis. While maximum fertilization did not differ among treatments, the sperm concentration required to obtain 50% of maximum fertilization increased 6- to 8- fold with the addition of a single factor (temperature or CO2 and nearly 50- fold when both factors interact. Our results indicate that near-future changes in temperature and pCO2 narrow the range of sperm concentrations that are capable of yielding high fertilization success in A. tenuis. Increased sperm limitation, in conjunction with adult population decline, may have severe consequences for coral reproductive success. Impaired sexual reproduction will further challenge corals by inhibiting population recovery and adaptation potential.

  13. Monitoring and trend mapping of sea surface temperature (SST) from MODIS data: a case study of Mumbai coast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azmi, Samee; Agarwadkar, Yogesh; Bhattacharya, Mohor; Apte, Mugdha; Inamdar, Arun B

    2015-04-01

    Sea surface temperature (SST) is one of the most important parameters in monitoring ecosystem health in the marine and coastal environment. Coastal ecosystem is largely dependent on ambient temperature and temperature fronts for marine/coastal habitat and its sustainability. Hence, thermal pollution is seen as a severe threat for ecological health of coastal waters across the world. Mumbai is one of the largest metropolises of the world and faces severe domestic and industrial effluent disposal problem, of which thermal pollution is a major issue with policy-makers and environmental stakeholders. This study attempts to understand the long-term SST variation in the coastal waters off Mumbai, on the western coast of India, and to identify thermal pollution zones. Analysis of SST trends in the near-coastal waters for the pre- and post-monsoon seasons from the year 2004 to the year 2010 has been carried out using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) Thermal Infra-red (TIR) bands. SST is calculated with the help of bands 31 and 32 using split window method. Several statistical operations were then applied to find the seasonal averages in SST and the standard deviation of SST in the study area. Maximum variation in SST was found within a perpendicular distance of 5 km from the shoreline during the study period. Also, a warm water mass was found to form consistently off coast during the winter months. Several anthropogenic sources of thermal pollution could be identified which were found to impact various locations along the coast.

  14. Disentangling sea-surface temperature and anthropogenic aerosol influences on recent trends in South Asian monsoon rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patil, Nitin; Venkataraman, Chandra; Muduchuru, Kaushik; Ghosh, Subimal; Mondal, Arpita

    2018-05-01

    Recent studies point to combined effects of changes in regional land-use, anthropogenic aerosol forcing and sea surface temperature (SST) gradient on declining trends in the South Asian monsoon (SAM). This study attempted disentangling the effects produced by changes in SST gradient from those by aerosol levels in an atmospheric general circulation model. Two pairs of transient ensemble simulations were made, for a 40-year period from 1971 to 2010, with evolving versus climatological SSTs and with anthropogenic aerosol emissions fixed at 1971 versus 2010, in each case with evolution of the other forcing element, as well as GHGs. Evolving SST was linked to a widespread feedback on increased surface temperature, reduced land-sea thermal contrast and a weakened Hadley circulation, with weakening of cross-equatorial transport of moisture transport towards South Asia. Increases in anthropogenic aerosol levels (1971 versus 2010), led to an intensification of drying in the peninsular Indian region, through several regional pathways. Aerosol forcing induced north-south asymmetries in temperature and sea-level pressure response, and a cyclonic circulation in the Bay of Bengal, leading to an easterly flow, which opposes the monsoon flow, suppressing moisture transport over peninsular India. Further, aerosol induced decreases in convection, vertically integrated moisture flux convergence, evaporation flux and cloud fraction, in the peninsular region, were spatially congruent with reduced convective and stratiform rainfall. Overall, evolution of SST acted through a weakening of cross-equatorial moisture flow, while increases in aerosol levels acted through suppression of Arabian Sea moisture transport, as well as, of convection and vertical moisture transport, to influence the suppression of SAM rainfall.

  15. Dynamically-downscaled projections of changes in temperature extremes over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Junhong; Huang, Guohe; Wang, Xiuquan; Li, Yongping; Lin, Qianguo

    2018-02-01

    In this study, likely changes in extreme temperatures (including 16 indices) over China in response to global warming throughout the twenty-first century are investigated through the PRECIS regional climate modeling system. The PRECIS experiment is conducted at a spatial resolution of 25 km and is driven by a perturbed-physics ensemble to reflect spatial variations and model uncertainties. Simulations of present climate (1961-1990) are compared with observations to validate the model performance in reproducing historical climate over China. Results indicate that the PRECIS demonstrates reasonable skills in reproducing the spatial patterns of observed extreme temperatures over the most regions of China, especially in the east. Nevertheless, the PRECIS shows a relatively poor performance in simulating the spatial patterns of extreme temperatures in the western mountainous regions, where its driving GCM exhibits more uncertainties due to lack of insufficient observations and results in more errors in climate downscaling. Future spatio-temporal changes of extreme temperature indices are then analyzed for three successive periods (i.e., 2020s, 2050s and 2080s). The projected changes in extreme temperatures by PRECIS are well consistent with the results of the major global climate models in both spatial and temporal patterns. Furthermore, the PRECIS demonstrates a distinct superiority in providing more detailed spatial information of extreme indices. In general, all extreme indices show similar changes in spatial pattern: large changes are projected in the north while small changes are projected in the south. In contrast, the temporal patterns for all indices vary differently over future periods: the warm indices, such as SU, TR, WSDI, TX90p, TN90p and GSL are likely to increase, while the cold indices, such as ID, FD, CSDI, TX10p and TN10p, are likely to decrease with time in response to global warming. Nevertheless, the magnitudes of changes in all indices tend to

  16. Recent summer precipitation trends in the Greater Horn of Africa and the emerging role of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, A.P. [Los Alamos National Laboratory, Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, Los Alamos, NM (United States); University of California, Geography Department, Santa Barbara, CA (United States); Funk, Chris [University of California, Geography Department, Santa Barbara, CA (United States); U.S. Geological Survey, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS), Sioux Falls, SD (United States); Michaelsen, Joel [University of California, Geography Department, Santa Barbara, CA (United States); Rauscher, Sara A. [Los Alamos National Laboratory, Theoretical Division, Los Alamos, NM (United States); Robertson, Iain; Loader, Neil J. [Swansea University, Department of Geography, College of Science, Swansea (United Kingdom); Wils, Tommy H.G. [Rotterdam University, Department of Geography, Rotterdam (Netherlands); Koprowski, Marcin [Nicolaus Copernicus University, Laboratory of Dendrochronology, Institute of Ecology and Environment Protection, Torun (Poland); Eshetu, Zewdu [Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research, Forestry Research Centre, Addis Ababa (Ethiopia)

    2012-11-15

    We utilize a variety of climate datasets to examine impacts of two mechanisms on precipitation in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) during northern-hemisphere summer. First, surface-pressure gradients draw moist air toward the GHA from the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Congo Basin. Variability of the strength of these gradients strongly influences GHA precipitation totals and accounts for important phenomena such as the 1960s-1980s rainfall decline and devastating 1984 drought. Following the 1980s, precipitation variability became increasingly influenced by the southern tropical Indian Ocean (STIO) region. Within this region, increases in sea-surface temperature, evaporation, and precipitation are linked with increased exports of dry mid-tropospheric air from the STIO region toward the GHA. Convergence of dry air above the GHA reduces local convection and precipitation. It also produces a clockwise circulation response near the ground that reduces moisture transports from the Congo Basin. Because precipitation originating in the Congo Basin has a unique isotopic signature, records of moisture transports from the Congo Basin may be preserved in the isotopic composition of annual tree rings in the Ethiopian Highlands. A negative trend in tree-ring oxygen-18 during the past half century suggests a decline in the proportion of precipitation originating from the Congo Basin. This trend may not be part of a natural cycle that will soon rebound because climate models characterize Indian Ocean warming as a principal signature of greenhouse-gas induced climate change. We therefore expect surface warming in the STIO region to continue to negatively impact GHA precipitation during northern-hemisphere summer. (orig.)

  17. Refining multi-model projections of temperature extremes by evaluation against land-atmosphere coupling diagnostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sippel, Sebastian; Zscheischler, Jakob; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Orth, Rene; Reichstein, Markus; Vogel, Martha; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2017-05-01

    The Earth's land surface and the atmosphere are strongly interlinked through the exchange of energy and matter. This coupled behaviour causes various land-atmosphere feedbacks, and an insufficient understanding of these feedbacks contributes to uncertain global climate model projections. For example, a crucial role of the land surface in exacerbating summer heat waves in midlatitude regions has been identified empirically for high-impact heat waves, but individual climate models differ widely in their respective representation of land-atmosphere coupling. Here, we compile an ensemble of 54 combinations of observations-based temperature (T) and evapotranspiration (ET) benchmarking datasets and investigate coincidences of T anomalies with ET anomalies as a proxy for land-atmosphere interactions during periods of anomalously warm temperatures. First, we demonstrate that a large fraction of state-of-the-art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) archive produces systematically too frequent coincidences of high T anomalies with negative ET anomalies in midlatitude regions during the warm season and in several tropical regions year-round. These coincidences (high T, low ET) are closely related to the representation of temperature variability and extremes across the multi-model ensemble. Second, we derive a land-coupling constraint based on the spread of the T-ET datasets and consequently retain only a subset of CMIP5 models that produce a land-coupling behaviour that is compatible with these benchmark estimates. The constrained multi-model simulations exhibit more realistic temperature extremes of reduced magnitude in present climate in regions where models show substantial spread in T-ET coupling, i.e. biases in the model ensemble are consistently reduced. Also the multi-model simulations for the coming decades display decreased absolute temperature extremes in the constrained ensemble. On the other hand, the differences between projected

  18. Refining multi-model projections of temperature extremes by evaluation against land–atmosphere coupling diagnostics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Sippel

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The Earth's land surface and the atmosphere are strongly interlinked through the exchange of energy and matter. This coupled behaviour causes various land–atmosphere feedbacks, and an insufficient understanding of these feedbacks contributes to uncertain global climate model projections. For example, a crucial role of the land surface in exacerbating summer heat waves in midlatitude regions has been identified empirically for high-impact heat waves, but individual climate models differ widely in their respective representation of land–atmosphere coupling. Here, we compile an ensemble of 54 combinations of observations-based temperature (T and evapotranspiration (ET benchmarking datasets and investigate coincidences of T anomalies with ET anomalies as a proxy for land–atmosphere interactions during periods of anomalously warm temperatures. First, we demonstrate that a large fraction of state-of-the-art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 archive produces systematically too frequent coincidences of high T anomalies with negative ET anomalies in midlatitude regions during the warm season and in several tropical regions year-round. These coincidences (high T, low ET are closely related to the representation of temperature variability and extremes across the multi-model ensemble. Second, we derive a land-coupling constraint based on the spread of the T–ET datasets and consequently retain only a subset of CMIP5 models that produce a land-coupling behaviour that is compatible with these benchmark estimates. The constrained multi-model simulations exhibit more realistic temperature extremes of reduced magnitude in present climate in regions where models show substantial spread in T–ET coupling, i.e. biases in the model ensemble are consistently reduced. Also the multi-model simulations for the coming decades display decreased absolute temperature extremes in the constrained ensemble. On the other hand

  19. Projecting changes in regional temperature and precipitation extremes in the United States

    OpenAIRE

    Justin T. Schoof; Scott M. Robeson

    2016-01-01

    Regional and local climate extremes, and their impacts, result from the multifaceted interplay between large-scale climate forcing, local environmental factors (physiography), and societal vulnerability. In this paper, we review historical and projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the United States, with a focus on strengths and weaknesses of (1) commonly used definitions for extremes such as thresholds and percentiles, (2) statistical approaches to quantifying change...

  20. Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100 AD

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John; Jevrejeva, Svetlana

    2010-01-01

    -proxy reconstructions assuming that the established relationship between temperature and sea level holds from 200 to 2100 ad. Over the last 2,000 years minimum sea level (-19 to -26 cm) occurred around 1730 ad, maximum sea level (12–21 cm) around 1150 AD. Sea level 2090–2099 is projected to be 0.9 to 1.3 m for the A1B...

  1. Projection after variation in the finite-temperature Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov approximation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fanto, P.

    2017-11-01

    The finite-temperature Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov (HFB) approximation often breaks symmetries of the underlying many-body Hamiltonian. Restricting the calculation of the HFB partition function to a subspace with good quantum numbers through projection after variation restores some of the correlations lost in breaking these symmetries, although effects of the broken symmetries such as sharp kinks at phase transitions remain. However, the most general projection after variation formula in the finite-temperature HFB approximation is limited by a sign ambiguity. Here, I extend the Pfaffian formula for the many-body traces of HFB density operators introduced by Robledo [L. M. Robledo, Phys. Rev. C. 79, 021302(R) (2009), 10.1103/PhysRevC.79.021302] to eliminate this sign ambiguity and evaluate the more complicated many-body traces required in projection after variation in the most general HFB case. The method is validated through a proof-of-principle calculation of the particle-number-projected HFB thermal energy in a simple model.

  2. Projected Temperature-Related Years of Life Lost From Stroke Due To Global Warming in a Temperate Climate City, Asia: Disease Burden Caused by Future Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Guoxing; Guo, Qun; Liu, Yang; Li, Yixue; Pan, Xiaochuan

    2018-04-01

    Global warming has attracted worldwide attention. Numerous studies have indicated that stroke is associated with temperature; however, few studies are available on the projections of the burden of stroke attributable to future climate change. We aimed to investigate the future trends of stroke years of life lost (YLL) associated with global warming. We collected death records to examine YLL in Tianjin, China, from 2006 to 2011. We fitted a standard time-series Poisson regression model after controlling for trends, day of the week, relative humidity, and air pollution. We estimated temperature-YLL associations with a distributed lag nonlinear model. These models were then applied to the local climate projections to estimate temperature-related YLL in the 2050s and 2070s. We projected temperature-related YLL from stroke in Tianjin under 19 global-scale climate models and 3 different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The results showed a slight decrease in YLL with percent decreases of 0.85%, 0.97%, and 1.02% in the 2050s and 0.94%, 1.02%, and 0.91% in the 2070s for the 3 scenarios, respectively. The increases in heat-related annual YLL and the decreases in cold-related YLL under the high emission scenario were the strongest. The monthly analysis showed that the most significant increase occurred in the summer months, particularly in August, with percent changes >150% in the 2050s and up to 300% in the 2070s. Future changes in climate are likely to lead to an increase in heat-related YLL, and this increase will not be offset by adaptation under both medium emission and high emission scenarios. Health protections from hot weather will become increasingly necessary, and measures to reduce cold effects will also remain important. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

  3. Recent climate trends and multisecular climate variability: temperature and precipitation during the cold season (October-March) in the Ebro Basin (NE of Spain) betrween 1500 and 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saz-Sanchez, M.-A.; Cuadrat-Prats, J.-M.

    2009-09-01

    One of the goals of Paleoclimatology is to assess the importance and the exceptional nature of recent climate trends related to the anthropogenic climate change. Instrumental data enable the analysis of last century's climate, but do not give any information on previous periods' precipitation and temperature, during which there was no anthropic intervention on the climate system. Dendroclimatology is one of the paleoclimatic reconstruction sources giving best results when it comes to reconstructing the climate of the time before instruments could be used. This work presents the reconstructed series of precipitation and temperature of the cold season (October-March) In the central sector of the Ebro Valley (NE of Spain). The chronologies used for the reconstruction come on the one hand from the International Tree-Ring Data Bank (ITRDB) and on the other hand from the dendrochronological information bank created in the northern half of the Iberian Peninsula within the framework of the Spanish Interministerial Commission for Science and Technology (CICYT) CLI96-1862 project. The climate data used for chronology calibration and the reconstruction of the temperature and precipitation values are those of the instrumental observatory number 9910 (Pallaruelo) belonging to the Spanish State Meteorological Agency (Agencia Estatal de Meteorología or AEMET), located in the central sector of the Ebro Valley. The reconstruction obtained covers the 1500-1990 period. In order to extend the series up to 2008, instrumental information has been used. Thanks to data from a set of AEMET instrumental observatories close to the one used for chronology calibration, a regional series of temperatures as well as a precipitation one were generated. The series reconstructed through dendroclimatic methods and the regional series do not show statistically significant differences in their mean and variance values. R values between both series exceed 0.85. Taking these statistical characteristics

  4. Variability and trend of diurnal temperature range in China and their relationship to total cloud cover and sunshine duration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xia, X. [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). LAGEO

    2013-07-01

    This study aims to investigate the effect of total cloud cover (TCC) and sunshine duration (SSD) in the variation of diurnal temperature range (DTR) in China during 1954-2009. As expected, the inter-annual variation of DTR was mainly determined by TCC. Analysis of trends of 30- year moving windows of DTR and TCC time series showed that TCC changes could account for that of DTR in some cases. However, TCC decreased during 1954-2009, which did not support DTR reduction across China. DTRs under sky conditions such as clear, cloudy and overcast showed nearly the same decreasing rate that completely accounted for the overall DTR reduction. Nevertheless, correlation between SSD and DTR was weak and not significant under clear sky conditions in which aerosol direct radiative effect should be dominant. Furthermore, 30-60% of DTR reduction was associated with DTR decrease under overcast conditions in south China. This implies that aerosol direct radiative effect appears not to be one of the main factors determining long-term changes in DTR in China. (orig.)

  5. IRPhE-DRAGON-DPR, OECD High Temperature Reactor Dragon Project, Primary Documents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    Description: The DRAGON Reactor Experiment (DRE): The first demonstration High temperature gas reactor (HTGR) was built in the 1960's. Thirteen OECD countries began a project in 1959 to build an experimental reactor known as Dragon at Winfrith in the UK. The reactor - which operated successfully between 1966 and 1975 - had a thermal output of 20 MW and achieved a gas outlet temperature of 750 deg. C. The High Temperature Reactor concept, if it justified its expectations, was seen as having its place as an advanced thermal reactor between the current thermal reactor types such as the PWR, BWR, and AGR and the sodium cooled fast breeder reactor. It was expected that the HTR would offer better thermal efficiency, better uranium utilisation, either with low enriched uranium fuel or high enriched uranium thorium fuel, better inherent safety and lower unit power costs. In the event all these potential advantages were demonstrated to be in principle achievable. This view is still shared today. In fact Very High Temperature Reactors is one of the concepts retained for Generation IV. Projects on constructing Modular Pebble Bed Reactors are under way. Here all available Dragon Project Reports (DPR) - approximately 1000 - are collected in electronic form. An index points to the reports (PDF format); each table in the report is accessible in EXCEL format with the aim of facilitating access to the data. These reports describe the design, experiments and modelling carried out over a period of 17 years. 2 - Related or auxiliary information: IRPHE-HTR-ARCH-01, Archive of HTR Primary Documents NEA-1728/01. 3 - Software requirements: Acrobat Reader, Microsoft Word, HTML Browser required

  6. Energy Smart Guide to Campus Cost Savings: Today's Trends in Project Finance, Clean Fuel Fleets, Combined Heat& Power, Emissions Markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2003-07-01

    The Energy Smart Guide to Campus Cost Savings covers today's trends in project finance, combined heat& power, clean fuel fleets and emissions trading. The guide is directed at campus facilities and business managers and contains general guidance, contact information and case studies from colleges and universities across the country.

  7. Planning research on the next strategical project through the trend analysis on radiation fusion technology, industry and policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Dong Sub; Choi, Jae Hak; Kim, Tak Hyun

    2013-01-01

    Ο The planning research for establish a detailed implementation strategy to serve as small, but a strong institution leading national radiation research and resolving the pending issues related to using radiation - Now is a time when it needs a implementation strategy to achieve it's unique mission as the sole radiation-specialized research institute leading to promote the radiation industry. Ο The main background of this study is to build the planning of a new paradigm for research and development to cope with the changing domestic and international environment for sustainable growth - As the domestic regional radiation field is getting more competitive and the cooperative group expands, it needs to adapt to the global trend such as technology convergence and acceleration etc.. - The need for establish basic database to make a new strategy in order to narrow the technology gap in the radiation fusion technology comparing to the developed country and cope with emerging country's advancement in technology Ο The use to build basic database to spearhead the project and set aside a budget effectively - It's to be used as a reference to set aside a budget through planning strategy industry field to forecast the industrial demand and variation of the future policy and create blue ocean and niche markets

  8. Project HEAT: Temperature as an Organizing Theme for Inquiry-Based Learning in the Environmental Sciences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albright, T. P.; Howard, K. L.; Ewing-Taylor, J.

    2014-12-01

    Professionals in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) fields do not reflect the diversity of the US population. Among the most effective ways to attract and retain underrepresented students in STEM disciplines is to provide opportunities for participation in the scientific process and interaction with practicing scientists. Project HEAT (Hot Environments, Animals, & Temperature) is "boot-camp"-style workshop aimed at increasing interest in STEM topics among underrepresented, first-generation, college-bound middle school students. Linking to our NASA-funded research project "Desert Birds in a Warming World", we focused on how surprisingly variable temperature is in space and time, why temperature is important to plants, animals, and people, and how we measure temperature in the field and from space. Perhaps more importantly, this theme was a vehicle for students to experience science as a process: field observations, brainstorming questions and hypotheses, designing experiments to test them, and analyzing and reporting their data. The centerpiece was a set of experiments with small temperature sensors and radiation shields that teams of students designed, executed at a local park, analyzed, and reported. Two years of pre and post assessments revealed that Project HEAT participants increased understanding in content areas and showed slight increases in STEM interest. Year two results were markedly stronger than year one in both assessments as well as our perception. We attribute this to earlier summer timing of the workshop, a change from two half-day weeks to one full-day week, and a more age-homogeneous selection of students. In comments, participants expressed their special enjoyment of the hands-on nature of the program and the outdoor learning. Though providing such opportunities can be challenging, our experience here suggests that it can be worth while. Project HEAT also benefited our cadre of graduate student mentors by providing exposure

  9. Projecting future summer mortality due to ambient ozone concentration and temperature changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jae Young; Lee, Soo Hyun; Hong, Sung-Chul; Kim, Ho

    2017-05-01

    Climate change is known to affect the human health both directly by increased heat stress and indirectly by altering environments, particularly by altering the rate of ambient ozone formation in the atmosphere. Thus, the risks of climate change may be underestimated if the effects of both future temperature and ambient ozone concentrations are not considered. This study presents a projection of future summer non-accidental mortality in seven major cities of South Korea during the 2020s (2016-2025) and 2050s (2046-2055) considering changes in temperature and ozone concentration, which were predicted by using the HadGEM3-RA model and Integrated Climate and Air Quality Modeling System, respectively. Four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) were considered. The result shows that non-accidental summer mortality will increase by 0.5%, 0.0%, 0.4%, and 0.4% in the 2020s, 1.9%, 1.5%, 1.2%, and 4.4% in the 2050s due to temperature change compared to the baseline mortality during 2001-2010, under RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively, whereas the mortality will increase by 0.0%, 0.5%, 0.0%, and 0.5% in the 2020s, and 0.2%, 0.2%, 0.4%, and 0.6% in the 2050s due to ozone concentration change. The projection result shows that the future summer morality in South Korea is increased due to changes in both temperature and ozone, and the magnitude of ozone-related increase is much smaller than that of temperature-related increase, especially in the 2050s.

  10. EUROPAIRS: The European project on coupling of High Temperature Reactors with industrial processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Angulo, C.; Bogusch, E.; Bredimas, A.; Delannay, N.; Viala, C.; Ruer, J.; Muguerra, Ph.; Sibaud, E.; Chauvet, V.; Hittner, D.; Fütterer, M.A.; Groot, S. de; Lensa, W. von; Verfondern, K.; Moron, R.; Baudrand, O.; Griffay, G.; Baaten, A.; Segurado-Gimenez, J.

    2012-01-01

    Developers of High Temperature Reactors (HTR) worldwide acknowledge that the main asset for market breakthrough is its unique ability to address growing needs for industrial cogeneration of heat and power (CHP) owing to its high operating temperature and flexibility, adapted power level, modularity and robust safety features. A strong alliance between nuclear and process heat user industries is a necessity for developing such a nuclear system for the conventional process heat market, just as the electro-nuclear development required a close partnership with utilities. Initiating such an alliance is one of the objectives of the EUROPAIRS project ( (www.europairs.eu)) presently on-going in the frame of the Euratom 7th Framework Programme (FP7). Although small and of short duration (21 months), EUROPAIRS is of strategic importance: it generates the boundary conditions for rapid demonstration of collocating HTR with industrial processes as proposed by the European High Temperature Reactor Technology Network (HTR-TN). This paper presents the main goals, the organization and the working approach of EUROPAIRS. It also presents the status of the viability assessment studies for coupling HTR with industrial end-user systems as one of the main pillars of the project. The main goal of the viability assessment is to identify developments required to remove the last technological and licensing barriers for a viable coupling scheme. The study is expected to result in guidelines for directing the choice of an industrial scale prototype.

  11. EUROPAIRS: The European project on coupling of High Temperature Reactors with industrial processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Angulo, C., E-mail: carmen.angulo@gdfsuez.com [Tractebel Engineering S.A. (GDF SUEZ), Avenue Ariane 7, 1200 Brussels (Belgium); Bogusch, E. [AREVA NP GmbH, Paul-Gossen-Strasse 100, 91052 Erlangen (Germany); Bredimas, A. [LGI Consulting, 37 rue de la Grange aux Belles, 75010 Paris (France); Delannay, N. [Tractebel Engineering S.A. (GDF SUEZ), Avenue Ariane 7, 1200 Brussels (Belgium); Viala, C. [AREVA NP SAS, 10 rue Juliette Recamier, 69456 Lyon Cedex 06 (France); Ruer, J.; Muguerra, Ph.; Sibaud, E. [SAIPEM S.A., 1/7 Avenue San Fernando, 78884 Saint Quentin en Yvelines Cedex (France); Chauvet, V. [LGI Consulting, 37 rue de la Grange aux Belles, 75010 Paris (France); Hittner, D. [AREVA NP Inc., 3315 Old Forest Road, Lynchburg, VA 24501 (United States); Fuetterer, M.A. [European Commission, Joint Research Centre, 1755ZG Petten (Netherlands); Groot, S. de [Nuclear Research and Consultancy Group, 1755ZG Petten (Netherlands); Lensa, W. von; Verfondern, K. [Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH, Leo-Brandt-Strasse,52425 Juelich (Germany); Moron, R. [Solvay SA, rue du Prince Albert 33, 1050 Brussels (Belgium); Baudrand, O. [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (IRSN), BP 17, 92262 Fontenay-aux-Roses cedex (France); Griffay, G. [Arcelor Mittal Maizieres Research SA, rue Luigi Cherubini 1A5, 39200 Saint Denis (France); Baaten, A. [USG/Baaten Energy Consulting, Burgermeester-Ceulen-Straat 78, 6212CT Maastricht (Netherlands); Segurado-Gimenez, J. [Tractebel Engineering S.A. (GDF SUEZ), Avenue Ariane 7, 1200 Brussels (Belgium)

    2012-10-15

    Developers of High Temperature Reactors (HTR) worldwide acknowledge that the main asset for market breakthrough is its unique ability to address growing needs for industrial cogeneration of heat and power (CHP) owing to its high operating temperature and flexibility, adapted power level, modularity and robust safety features. A strong alliance between nuclear and process heat user industries is a necessity for developing such a nuclear system for the conventional process heat market, just as the electro-nuclear development required a close partnership with utilities. Initiating such an alliance is one of the objectives of the EUROPAIRS project ( (www.europairs.eu)) presently on-going in the frame of the Euratom 7th Framework Programme (FP7). Although small and of short duration (21 months), EUROPAIRS is of strategic importance: it generates the boundary conditions for rapid demonstration of collocating HTR with industrial processes as proposed by the European High Temperature Reactor Technology Network (HTR-TN). This paper presents the main goals, the organization and the working approach of EUROPAIRS. It also presents the status of the viability assessment studies for coupling HTR with industrial end-user systems as one of the main pillars of the project. The main goal of the viability assessment is to identify developments required to remove the last technological and licensing barriers for a viable coupling scheme. The study is expected to result in guidelines for directing the choice of an industrial scale prototype.

  12. Simulated hydrologic response to projected changes in precipitation and temperature in the Congo River basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Aloysius

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Despite their global significance, the impacts of climate change on water resources and associated ecosystem services in the Congo River basin (CRB have been understudied. Of particular need for decision makers is the availability of spatial and temporal variability of runoff projections. Here, with the aid of a spatially explicit hydrological model forced with precipitation and temperature projections from 25 global climate models (GCMs under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, we explore the variability in modeled runoff in the near future (2016–2035 and mid-century (2046–2065. We find that total runoff from the CRB is projected to increase by 5 % [−9 %; 20 %] (mean – min and max – across model ensembles over the next two decades and by 7 % [−12 %; 24 %] by mid-century. Projected changes in runoff from subwatersheds distributed within the CRB vary in magnitude and sign. Over the equatorial region and in parts of northern and southwestern CRB, most models project an overall increase in precipitation and, subsequently, runoff. A simulated decrease in precipitation leads to a decline in runoff from headwater regions located in the northeastern and southeastern CRB. Climate model selection plays an important role in future projections for both magnitude and direction of change. The multimodel ensemble approach reveals that precipitation and runoff changes under business-as-usual and avoided greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP8.5 vs. RCP4.5 are relatively similar in the near term but deviate in the midterm, which underscores the need for rapid action on climate change adaptation. Our assessment demonstrates the need to include uncertainties in climate model and emission scenario selection during decision-making processes related to climate change mitigation and adaptation.

  13. Simulated hydrologic response to projected changes in precipitation and temperature in the Congo River basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aloysius, Noel; Saiers, James

    2017-08-01

    Despite their global significance, the impacts of climate change on water resources and associated ecosystem services in the Congo River basin (CRB) have been understudied. Of particular need for decision makers is the availability of spatial and temporal variability of runoff projections. Here, with the aid of a spatially explicit hydrological model forced with precipitation and temperature projections from 25 global climate models (GCMs) under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, we explore the variability in modeled runoff in the near future (2016-2035) and mid-century (2046-2065). We find that total runoff from the CRB is projected to increase by 5 % [-9 %; 20 %] (mean - min and max - across model ensembles) over the next two decades and by 7 % [-12 %; 24 %] by mid-century. Projected changes in runoff from subwatersheds distributed within the CRB vary in magnitude and sign. Over the equatorial region and in parts of northern and southwestern CRB, most models project an overall increase in precipitation and, subsequently, runoff. A simulated decrease in precipitation leads to a decline in runoff from headwater regions located in the northeastern and southeastern CRB. Climate model selection plays an important role in future projections for both magnitude and direction of change. The multimodel ensemble approach reveals that precipitation and runoff changes under business-as-usual and avoided greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP8.5 vs. RCP4.5) are relatively similar in the near term but deviate in the midterm, which underscores the need for rapid action on climate change adaptation. Our assessment demonstrates the need to include uncertainties in climate model and emission scenario selection during decision-making processes related to climate change mitigation and adaptation.

  14. Long-term trends in US gas supply and prices: 1993 edition of the GRI baseline projection of US energy supply and demand to 2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woods, T.J.

    1993-03-01

    A Summary of the gas supply outlook in the 1993 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand, adopted as a major input to the planning cycle of the 1994 research and development program, is presented. Significant changes were made in developing the gas supply and price trends for the 1993 edition of the projection. The GRI Hydrocarbon Model was expanded to include the Canadian hydrocarbon resource base. Thus, Canadian and lower-48 gas production and prices were developed on a fully integrated basis in the 1993 projection. The lower-48 hydrocarbon resource estimate was increased, reflecting the results of the recent National Petroleum Council gas study and ongoing GRI resource work. The effects of new technology and practice on drilling costs and exploration efficiency were included for the first time. Appendices include comparisons of supply and price trends

  15. High Temperature Reactors for a proposed IAEA Coordinated Research Project on Energy Neutral Mineral Development Processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haneklaus, Nils; Reitsma, Frederik; Tulsidas, Harikrishnan

    2014-01-01

    The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is promoting a new Coordinated Research Project (CRP) to elaborate on the applicability and potential of using High Temperature Reactors (HTRs) to provide process heat and/or electricity to power energy intensive mineral development processes. The CRP aims to provide a platform for cooperation between HTR-developers and mineral development processing experts. Energy intensive mineral development processes with (e.g. phosphate-, gold-, copper-, rare earth ores) or without (e.g. titanium-, aluminum ore) the possibility to recover accompanying uranium and/or thorium that could be developed and used to run the HTR for “energy neutral” processing of the primary ore shall be discussed according to the participants needs. This paper specifically focuses on the aspects that need to be addressed by HTR-designers and developers. First requirements that should be fulfilled by the HTR-designs are highlighted together with the desired outcomes of the research project. (author)

  16. Projecting future precipitation and temperature at sites with diverse climate through multiple statistical downscaling schemes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vallam, P.; Qin, X. S.

    2017-10-01

    Anthropogenic-driven climate change would affect the global ecosystem and is becoming a world-wide concern. Numerous studies have been undertaken to determine the future trends of meteorological variables at different scales. Despite these studies, there remains significant uncertainty in the prediction of future climates. To examine the uncertainty arising from using different schemes to downscale the meteorological variables for the future horizons, projections from different statistical downscaling schemes were examined. These schemes included statistical downscaling method (SDSM), change factor incorporated with LARS-WG, and bias corrected disaggregation (BCD) method. Global circulation models (GCMs) based on CMIP3 (HadCM3) and CMIP5 (CanESM2) were utilized to perturb the changes in the future climate. Five study sites (i.e., Alice Springs, Edmonton, Frankfurt, Miami, and Singapore) with diverse climatic conditions were chosen for examining the spatial variability of applying various statistical downscaling schemes. The study results indicated that the regions experiencing heavy precipitation intensities were most likely to demonstrate the divergence between the predictions from various statistical downscaling methods. Also, the variance computed in projecting the weather extremes indicated the uncertainty derived from selection of downscaling tools and climate models. This study could help gain an improved understanding about the features of different downscaling approaches and the overall downscaling uncertainty.

  17. Projected evolution of circulation types and their temperatures over Central Europe in climate models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Plavcová, Eva; Kyselý, Jan

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 114, 3-4 (2013), s. 625-634 ISSN 0177-798X R&D Project s: GA ČR GAP209/10/2265 Grant - others:ENSEMBLES: EU-FP6(XE) 505539 Program:FP6 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : Regional climate models * Atmospheric circulation * Climate change scenarios * Surface air temperature * ENSEMBLES * Central Europe Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.742, year: 2013 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00704-013-0874-4#page-1

  18. High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor Projected Markets and Preliminary Economics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larry Demick

    2011-08-01

    This paper summarizes the potential market for process heat produced by a high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR), the environmental benefits reduced CO2 emissions will have on these markets, and the typical economics of projects using these applications. It gives examples of HTGR technological applications to industrial processes in the typical co-generation supply of process heat and electricity, the conversion of coal to transportation fuels and chemical process feedstock, and the production of ammonia as a feedstock for the production of ammonia derivatives, including fertilizer. It also demonstrates how uncertainties in capital costs and financial factors affect the economics of HTGR technology by analyzing the use of HTGR technology in the application of HTGR and high temperature steam electrolysis processes to produce hydrogen.

  19. Projected Changes in Seasonal Mean Temperature and Rainfall (2011-2040) in Cagayan Valley, Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basconcillo, J. Q.; Lucero, A. J. R.; Solis, A. S.; Kanamaru, H.; Sandoval, R. S.; Bautista, E. U.

    2014-12-01

    Among Filipinos, a meal is most often considered incomplete without rice. There is a high regard for rice in the entire archipelago that in 2012, the country's rice production was accounted to more than 18 million tons with an equivalent harvested area of 4.7 million hectares. This means that from the 5.4 million hectares of arable land in the Philippines, 11 percent are found and being utilized for rice production in Cagayan Valley (CV). In the same year, more than 13 percent of the country's total annual rice production was produced in CV. Rice production also provides employment to 844,000 persons (out of 1.4 million persons) which suggest that occupation and livelihood in Cagayan Valley are strongly anchored in rice production. These figures outline the imaginable vulnerability of rice production in CV amidst varying issues such as land conversion, urbanization, increase in population, retention of farming households, and climate change. While all these issues are of equal importance, this paper is directed towards the understanding the projected changes in seasonal rainfall and mean temperature (2011-2040). It is envisioned by this study that a successful climate change adaptation starts with the provision of climate projections hence this paper's objective to investigate on the changes in climate patterns and extreme events. Projected changes are zonally limited to the Provinces of Cagayan, Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, and Quirino based on the statistical downscaling of three global climate models (BCM2, CNCM3, and MPEH5) and two emission scenarios (A1B and A2). With the idea that rainfall and temperature varies with topography, the AURELHY technique was utilized in interpolating climate projections. Results obtained from the statistical downscaling showed that there will be significant climate changes from 2011-2040 in terms of rainfall and mean temperature. There are also indications of increasing frequency of extreme 24-hour rainfall and number of dry days

  20. Causes and consequences of past and projected Scandinavian summer temperatures, 500-2100 AD.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulf Büntgen

    Full Text Available Tree rings dominate millennium-long temperature reconstructions and many records originate from Scandinavia, an area for which the relative roles of external forcing and internal variation on climatic changes are, however, not yet fully understood. Here we compile 1,179 series of maximum latewood density measurements from 25 conifer sites in northern Scandinavia, establish a suite of 36 subset chronologies, and analyse their climate signal. A new reconstruction for the 1483-2006 period correlates at 0.80 with June-August temperatures back to 1860. Summer cooling during the early 17th century and peak warming in the 1930s translate into a decadal amplitude of 2.9°C, which agrees with existing Scandinavian tree-ring proxies. Climate model simulations reveal similar amounts of mid to low frequency variability, suggesting that internal ocean-atmosphere feedbacks likely influenced Scandinavian temperatures more than external forcing. Projected 21st century warming under the SRES A2 scenario would, however, exceed the reconstructed temperature envelope of the past 1,500 years.

  1. Evolution of extreme temperature events in short term climate projection for Iberian Peninsula.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, Alfredo; Tarquis, Ana M.; Sanchez, Enrique; Dosio, Alessandro; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita

    2014-05-01

    Extreme events of maximum and minimum temperatures are a main hazard for agricultural production in Iberian Peninsula. For this purpose, in this study we analyze projections of their evolution that could be valid for the next decade, represented in this study by the 30-year period 2004-2034 (target period). For this purpose two kinds of data were used in this study: 1) observations from the station network of AEMET (Spanish National Meteorological Agency) for five Spanish locations, and 2) simulated data at a resolution of 50 ×50 km horizontal grid derived from the outputs of twelve Regional Climate Models (RCMs) taken from project ENSEMBLES (van der Linden and Mitchell, 2009), with a bias correction (Dosio and Paruolo, 2011; Dosio et al., 2012) regarding the observational dataset Spain02 (Herrera et al., 2012). To validate the simulated climate, the available period of observations was compared to a baseline period (1964-1994) of simulated climate for all locations. Then, to analyze the changes for the present/very next future, probability of extreme temperature events for 2004-2034 were compared to that of the baseline period. Although only minor changes are expected, small variations in variability may have a significant impact in crop performance. The objective of the work is to evaluate the utility of these short term projections for potential users, as for instance insurance companies. References Dosio A. and Paruolo P., 2011. Bias correction of the ENSEMBLES high-resolution climate change projections for use by impact models: Evaluation on the present climate. Journal of Geophysical Research, VOL. 116,D16106, doi:10.1029/2011JD015934 Dosio A., Paruolo P. and Rojas R., 2012. Bias correction of the ENSEMBLES high resolution climate change projections for use by impact models: Analysis of the climate change signal. Journal of Geophysical Research,Volume 117, D17, doi: 0.1029/2012JD017968 Herrera et. al. (2012) Development and Analysis of a 50 year high

  2. Projecting temperature-related years of life lost under different climate change scenarios in one temperate megacity, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yixue; Li, Guoxing; Zeng, Qiang; Liang, Fengchao; Pan, Xiaochuan

    2018-02-01

    Temperature has been associated with population health, but few studies have projected the future temperature-related years of life lost attributable to climate change. To project future temperature-related disease burden in Tianjin, we selected years of life lost (YLL) as the dependent variable to explore YLL attributable to climate change. A generalized linear model (GLM) and distributed lag non-linear model were combined to assess the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature on the YLL of non-accidental mortality. Then, we calculated the YLL changes attributable to future climate scenarios in 2055 and 2090. The relationships of daily mean temperature with the YLL of non-accident mortality were basically U-shaped. Both the daily mean temperature increase on high-temperature days and its drop on low-temperature days caused an increase of YLL and non-accidental deaths. The temperature-related YLL will worsen if future climate change exceeds 2 °C. In addition, the adverse effects of extreme temperature on YLL occurred more quickly than that of the overall temperature. The impact of low temperature was greater than that of high temperature. Men were vulnerable to high temperature compared with women. This analysis highlights that the government should formulate environmental policies to reach the Paris Agreement goal. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Working Life and Retirement Expectancies at Age 50 by Social Class: Period and Cohort Trends and Projections for Finland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leinonen, Taina; Martikainen, Pekka; Myrskylä, Mikko

    2018-01-11

    The balance between the amount of time spent in work and in retirement underlies the long-term sustainability of the social security system. We examined socioeconomic differences in how increasing longevity is distributed between labor market statuses in Finland. We used register data and the Sullivan method to analyze life expectancy at age 50 spent in different labor market statuses over the period 1989-2012 and across cohorts born in 1938-1953. We projected the future mortality and labor market participation rates of partially observed cohorts. Both working life expectancy at age 50 and the share of remaining life spent in work have increased across periods following the recession of the early 1990s, and across successive cohorts. The trends were similar across the social classes, but there were large differences in the numbers of years spent in various states: for the most recent period and the youngest cohort, we find that compared with upper non-manual employees, male and female manual workers were expected to spend 3.6-3.7 fewer years in work, 1.7-4.7 fewer years in statutory retirement, and 3.2-3.9 more years in other forms of nonemployment. Our finding that the share of remaining life at age 50 spent in work is increasing implies that pressure on the welfare system is not as severe as is commonly thought. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  4. Plutonium and minor actinides management in thermal high - temperature reactors - the EU FP6 project puma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuijper, J. C.

    2007-01-01

    The High Temperature gas-cooled Reactor (HTR) can fulfil a very useful niche for the purposes of Pu and Minor Actinide (MA) incineration due to its unique and unsurpassed safety features, as well as to the attractive incentives offered by the nature of the coated particle (CP) fuel. No European reactor of this type is currently available, but there has been, and still is, considerable interest internationally. Decisions to construct such a reactor in China and in South Africa have already been made or are about to be made. Apart from the unique and unsurpassed safety features offered by this reactor type, the nature of the CP fuel offers a number of attractive characteristics. In particular, it can withstand burn-ups far beyond that in either LWR or FR systems. Demonstrations as high as 75% FIMA have been achieved. The coated particle itself offers significantly improved proliferation resistance, and finally with a correct choice of the kernel composition, it can be a very effective support for direct geological disposal of the fuel. The overall objective of the PUMA project, a Specific Targeted Research Project (STREP) within the European Union 6th Framework (EU FP6), is to investigate the possibilities for the utilisation and transmutation of plutonium and especially minor actinides in contemporary and future (high temperature) gas-cooled reactor designs, which are promising tools for improving the sustainability of the nuclear fuel cycle. This contributes to the reduction of Pu and MA stockpiles, and also to the development of safe and sustainable reactors for CO 2 -free energy generation. A number of important issues concerning the use of Pu and MA in gas-cooled reactors have already been dealt with in other projects, or are being treated in ongoing projects, e.g. as part of EU FP6. However, further steps are required to demonstrate the potential of HTRs as Pu/MA transmuters based on realistic/feasible designs of CP Pu/MA fuel and the PUMA focuses on necessary

  5. Regional Projections of Extreme Apparent Temperature Days in Africa and the Related Potential Risk to Human Health

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Garland, Rebecca M

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Regional climate modelling was used to produce high resolution climate projections for Africa, under a “business as usual scenario”, that were translated into potential health impacts utilizing a heat index that relates apparent temperature...

  6. Charging conditions research to increase the initial projected velocity at different initial charge temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishchenko, Aleksandr; Burkin, Viktor; Kasimov, Vladimir; Samorokova, Nina; Zykova, Angelica; Diachkovskii, Alexei

    2017-11-01

    The problems of the defense industry occupy the most important place in the constantly developing modern world. The daily development of defense technology does not stop, nor do studies on internal ballistics. The scientists of the whole world are faced with the task of managing the main characteristics of a ballistic experiment. The main characteristics of the ballistic experiment are the maximum pressure in the combustion chamber Pmax and the projected velocity at the time of barrel leaving UM. During the work the combustion law of the new high-energy fuel was determined in a ballistic experiment for different initial temperatures. This combustion law was used for a parametric study of depending Pmax and UM from a powder charge mass and a traveling charge was carried out. The optimal conditions for loading were obtained for improving the initial velocity at pressures up to 600 MPa for different initial temperatures. In this paper, one of the most promising schemes of throwing is considered, as well as a method for increasing the muzzle velocity of a projected element to 3317 m/s.

  7. Existing and projected neutron sources and low-temperature irradiation facilities in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boening, K.

    1984-01-01

    In this paper, a contribution given at the Kyoto University Research Reactor Institute to the temporal meeting on the design of the facilities for high flux, low temperature irradiation is summarized. The following five subjects were discussed. The project of modernizing the swimming pool type research reactor FRM with 4 MW power at Munich is to achieve relatively high thermal neutron flux, and an extremely compact core is designed. The existing low temperature irradiation facility (LTIF) of the FRM is the most powerful in the world, and has been successfully operated more than 20 years. The fast and thermal neutron fluxes are 2.9 x 10 13 and 3.5 x 10 13 /cm 2 sec, respectively. The experimental techniques in the LTIF of the FRM, such as a measuring cryostat, the mounting of irradiated samples and so on, are described. The installation of new LTIFs in connection with the projects of advanced neutron sources in Germany is likely to be made in the modernized FRM at Garching, in the spallation neutron source SNQ at KFA Juelich and so on. The interesting problems in fundamental and applied researches with LTIFs, and the unusual application of LTIFs are shown. (Kako, I.)

  8. A comparative assessment of projected meteorological and hydrological droughts: Elucidating the role of temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmadalipour, Ali; Moradkhani, Hamid; Demirel, Mehmet C.

    2017-10-01

    The changing climate and the associated future increases in temperature are expected to have impacts on drought characteristics and hydrologic cycle. This paper investigates the projected changes in spatiotemporal characteristics of droughts and their future attributes over the Willamette River Basin (WRB) in the Pacific Northwest U.S. The analysis is performed using two subsets of downscaled CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) each consisting of 10 models from two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for 30 years of historical period (1970-1999) and 90 years of future projections (2010-2099). Hydrologic modeling is conducted using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) as a robust distributed hydrologic model with lower computational cost compared to other models. Meteorological and hydrological droughts are studied using three drought indices (i.e. Standardized Precipitation Index, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, Standardized Streamflow Index). Results reveal that the intensity and duration of hydrological droughts are expected to increase over the WRB, albeit the annual precipitation is expected to increase. On the other hand, the intensity of meteorological droughts do not indicate an aggravation for most cases. We explore the changes of hydrometeolorogical variables over the basin in order to understand the causes for such differences and to discover the controlling factors of drought. Furthermore, the uncertainty of projections are quantified for model, scenario, and downscaling uncertainty.

  9. Spatial and Temporal Inter-Relationship between Anomalies and Trends of Temperature, Moisture, Cloud Cover and OLR as Observed by AIRS/AMSU on Aqua

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susskind, Joel; Molnar, Gyula

    2009-01-01

    AIRS/AMSU is the advanced IR/MW atmospheric sounding system launched on EOS Aqua in May 2002. Products derived from AIRS/AMSU by the AIRS Science Team include surface skin temperature and atmospheric temperature profiled; atmospheric humidity profiles, fractional cloud clover and cloud top pressure, and OLR. Products covering the period September 2002 through the present have been derived from AIRS/AMSU using the AIRS Science Team Version 5 retrieval algorithm. In this paper, we will show results covering the time period September 2006 - November 2008. This time period is marked by a substantial warming trend of Northern Hemisphere Extra-tropical land surface skin temperatures, as well as pronounced El Nino - La Nina episodes. These both influence the spatial and temporal anomaly patterns of atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles, as well as of cloud cover and Clear Sky and All Sky OLR. The relationships between temporal and spatial anomalies of these parameters over this time period, as determined from AIRS/AMSU observations, will be shown with particular emphasis on which contribute significantly to OLR anomalies in each of the tropics and extra-tropics. Results will also be shown to evaluate the anomalies and trends of temperature profiles and OLR as determined from analysis of AIRS/AMSU data. Global and regional trends during the 6 1/3 year time period are not necessarily indicative of what has happened in the past, or what may happen in the future. Nevertheless, the inter-relationships of spatial and temporal anomalies of atmospheric geophysical parameters with those of surface skin temperature are indicative of climate processes, and can be used to test the performance of climate models when driven by changes in surface temperatures.

  10. Impacts of precipitation and temperature trends on different time scales on the water cycle and water resource availability in mountainous Mediterranean catchments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    José Pérez-Palazón, María; Pimentel, Rafael; Herrero, Javier; José Polo, María

    2017-04-01

    Climatology trends, precipitation and temperature variations condition the hydrological evolution of the river flow response at basin and sub-basin scales. The link between both climate and flow trends is crucial in mountainous areas, where small variations in temperature can produce significant impacts on precipitation (occurrence as rainfall or snowfall), snowmelt and evaporation, and consequently very different flow signatures. This importance is greater in semiarid regions, where the high variability of the climatic annual and seasonal regimes usually amplifies this impact on river flow. The Sierra Nevada National Park (Southern Spain), with altitudes ranging from 2000 to 3500 m.a.s.l., is part of the global climate change observatories network and a clear example of snow regions in a semiarid environment. This mountain range is head of different catchments, being the Guadalfeo River Basin one of the most influenced by the snow regime. This study shows the observed 55-year (1961-2015) trends of annual precipitation and daily mean temperature, and the associated impacts on snowfall and snow persistence, and the resulting trend of the annual river flow in the Guadalfeo River Basin (Southern Spain), a semiarid abrupt mountainous area (up to 3450 m a.s.l.) facing the Mediterranean Sea where the Alpine and Mediterranean climates coexist in a domain highly influenced by the snow regime, and a significant seasonality in the flow regime. The annual precipitation and annual daily mean temperature experimented a decreasing trend of 2.05 mm/year and an increasing trend of 0.037 °C/year, respectively, during the study period, with a high variability on a decadal basis. However, the torrential precipitation events are more frequent in the last few years of the study period, with an apparently increasing associated dispersion. The estimated annual snowfall trend shows a decreasing trend of 0.24 mm/year, associated to the decrease of precipitation rather than to temperature

  11. Evaluation and projection of daily temperature percentiles from statistical and dynamical downscaling methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Casanueva

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The study of extreme events has become of great interest in recent years due to their direct impact on society. Extremes are usually evaluated by using extreme indicators, based on order statistics on the tail of the probability distribution function (typically percentiles. In this study, we focus on the tail of the distribution of daily maximum and minimum temperatures. For this purpose, we analyse high (95th and low (5th percentiles in daily maximum and minimum temperatures on the Iberian Peninsula, respectively, derived from different downscaling methods (statistical and dynamical. First, we analyse the performance of reanalysis-driven downscaling methods in present climate conditions. The comparison among the different methods is performed in terms of the bias of seasonal percentiles, considering as observations the public gridded data sets E-OBS and Spain02, and obtaining an estimation of both the mean and spatial percentile errors. Secondly, we analyse the increments of future percentile projections under the SRES A1B scenario and compare them with those corresponding to the mean temperature, showing that their relative importance depends on the method, and stressing the need to consider an ensemble of methodologies.

  12. Comments on "Long-Term Variations of Exospheric Temperature Inferred From foF1 Observations: A Comparison to ISR Ti Trend Estimates" by Perrone and Mikhailov

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Shun-Rong; Holt, John M.; Erickson, Philip J.; Goncharenko, Larisa P.

    2018-05-01

    Perrone and Mikhailov (2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JA024193) and Mikhailov et al. (2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JA023909) have recently examined thermospheric and ionospheric long-term trends using a data set of four thermospheric parameters (Tex, [O], [N2], and [O2]) and solar EUV flux. These data were derived from one single ionospheric parameter, foF1, using a nonlinear fitting procedure involving a photochemical model for the F1 peak. The F1 peak is assumed at the transition height ht with the linear recombination for atomic oxygen ions being equal to the quadratic recombination for molecular ions. This procedure has a number of obvious problems that are not addressed or not sufficiently justified. The potentially large ambiguities and biases in derived parameters make them unsuitable for precise quantitative ionospheric and thermospheric long-term trend studies. Furthermore, we assert that Perrone and Mikhailov (2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JA024193) conclusions regarding incoherent scatter radar (ISR) ion temperature analysis for long-term trend studies are incorrect and in particular are based on a misunderstanding of the nature of the incoherent scatter radar measurement process. Large ISR data sets remain a consistent and statistically robust method for determining long term secular plasma temperature trends.

  13. National Status and Trends, Benthic Surveillance Project Pathology, 1984-1992, National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — In order to determine the current status of and to detect any long-term trends in the environmental quality of U.S. nearshore waters, NOAA initiated the National...

  14. National Status and Trends, Benthic Surveillance Project DNA-Xenobiotic Adducts Data, 1991, National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — In order to determine the current status of and to detect any long-term trends in the environmental quality of U.S. nearshore waters, NOAA initiated the National...

  15. Long-term trend in ground-based air temperature and its responses to atmospheric circulation and anthropogenic activity in the Yangtze River Delta, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Xia; She, Qiannan; Long, Lingbo; Liu, Min; Xu, Qian; Zhang, Jiaxin; Xiang, Weining

    2017-10-01

    The Yangtze River Delta (YRD), including Shanghai City, Jiangsu and Zhejiang Provinces, is the largest metropolitan region in China. In the past decades, the region has experienced massive urbanization and detrimentally affected the environment in the region. Identifying the spatio-temporal variations of climate change and its influencing mechanism in the YRD is an important task for assessing their impacts on the local society and ecosystem. Based on long-term (1958-2014) observation data of meteorological stations, three temperature indices, i.e. extreme maximum temperature (TXx), extreme minimum temperature (TNn), and mean temperature (TMm), were selected and spatialized with climatological calculations and spatial techniques. Evolution and spatial heterogeneity of three temperature indices over YRD as well as their links to atmospheric circulation and anthropogenic activity were investigated. In the whole YRD, a statistically significant overall uptrend could be detected in three temperature indices with the Mann-Kendall (M-K) trend test method. The linear increasing trend for TMm was 0.31 °C/10 a, which was higher than the global average (0.12 °C/10 a during 1951-2012). For TXx and TNn, the increasing rates were 0.41 °C/10 a and 0.52 °C/10 a. Partial correlation analysis indicated that TMm was more related with TXx (rp = 0.68, p < 0.001) than TNn (rp = 0.48, p < 0.001). Furthermore, it was detected with M-K analysis at pixel scale that 62.17%, 96.75% and 97.05% of the areas in the YRD showed significant increasing trends for TXx, TNn and TMm, respectively. The increasing trend was more obvious in the southern mountainous areas than the northern plains areas. Further analysis indicated that the variation of TXx over YRD was mainly influenced by anthropogenic activities (e.g. economic development), while TNn was more affected by atmospheric circulations (e.g., the Eurasian zonal circulation index (EAZ) and the cold air activity index (CA)). For TMm, it was a

  16. Melting of major Glaciers in the western Himalayas: evidence of climatic changes from long term MSU derived tropospheric temperature trend (1979–2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. K. Prasad

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Global warming or the increase of the surface and atmospheric temperatures of the Earth, is increasingly discernible in the polar, sub-polar and major land glacial areas. The Himalayan and Tibetan Plateau Glaciers, which are the largest glaciers outside of the Polar Regions, are showing a large-scale decrease of snow cover and an extensive glacial retreat. These glaciers such as Siachen and Gangotri are a major water resource for Asia as they feed major rivers such as the Indus, Ganga and Brahmaputra. Due to scarcity of ground measuring stations, the long-term observations of atmospheric temperatures acquired from the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU since 1979–2008 is highly useful. The lower and middle tropospheric temperature trend based on 30 years of MSU data shows warming of the Northern Hemisphere's mid-latitude regions. The mean month-to-month warming (up to 0.048±0.026°K/year or 1.44°K over 30 years of the mid troposphere (near surface over the high altitude Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau is prominent and statistically significant at a 95% confidence interval. Though the mean annual warming trend over the Himalayas (0.016±0.005°K/year, and Tibetan Plateau (0.008±0.006°K/year is positive, the month to month warming trend is higher (by 2–3 times, positive and significant only over a period of six months (December to May. The factors responsible for the reversal of this trend from June to November are discussed here. The inequality in the magnitude of the warming trends of the troposphere between the western and eastern Himalayas and the IG (Indo-Gangetic plains is attributed to the differences in increased aerosol loading (due to dust storms over these regions. The monthly mean lower-tropospheric MSU-derived temperature trend over the IG plains (dust sink region; up to 0.032±0.027°K/year and dust source regions (Sahara desert, Middle East, Arabian region, Afghanistan-Iran-Pakistan and Thar Desert regions; up to 0.068±0.033

  17. High Temperature Reactors for a new IAEA Coordinated Research Project on energy neutral mineral development processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haneklaus, Nils, E-mail: n.haneklaus@berkeley.edu [Department of Nuclear Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, 4118 Etcheverry Hall, MC 1730, Berkeley, CA 94720-1730 (United States); Reitsma, Frederik [IAEA, Division of Nuclear Power, Section of Nuclear Power Technology Development, VIC, PO Box 100, Vienna 1400 (Austria); Tulsidas, Harikrishnan [IAEA, Division of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology, Section of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Materials, VIC, PO Box 100, Vienna 1400 (Austria)

    2016-09-15

    The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is promoting a new Coordinated Research Project (CRP) to elaborate on the applicability and potential of using High Temperature Reactors (HTRs) to provide process heat and/or electricity to power energy intensive mineral development processes. The CRP aims to provide a platform for cooperation between HTR-developers and mineral development processing experts. Energy intensive mineral development processes with (e.g. phosphate-, gold-, copper-, rare earth ores) or without (e.g. titanium-, aluminum ore) the possibility to recover accompanying uranium and/or thorium that could be developed and used as raw material for nuclear reactor fuel enabling “energy neutral” processing of the primary ore if the recovered uranium and/or thorium is sufficient to operate the greenhouse gas lean energy source used shall be discussed according to the participants needs. This paper specifically focuses on the aspects to be addressed by HTR-designers and developers. First requirements that should be fulfilled by the HTR-designs are highlighted together with the desired outcomes of the research project.

  18. Computing the distribution of return levels of extreme warm temperatures for future climate projections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pausader, M.; Parey, S.; Nogaj, M. [EDF/R and D, Chatou Cedex (France); Bernie, D. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)

    2012-03-15

    In order to take into account uncertainties in the future climate projections there is a growing demand for probabilistic projections of climate change. This paper presents a methodology for producing such a probabilistic analysis of future temperature extremes. The 20- and 100-years return levels are obtained from that of the normalized variable and the changes in mean and standard deviation given by climate models for the desired future periods. Uncertainty in future change of these extremes is quantified using a multi-model ensemble and a perturbed physics ensemble. The probability density functions of future return levels are computed at a representative location from the joint probability distribution of mean and standard deviation changes given by the two combined ensembles of models. For the studied location, the 100-years return level at the end of the century is lower than 41 C with an 80% confidence. Then, as the number of model simulations is low to compute a reliable distribution, two techniques proposed in the literature (local pattern scaling and ANOVA) have been used to infer the changes in mean and standard deviation for the combinations of RCM and GCM which have not been run. The ANOVA technique leads to better results for the reconstruction of the mean changes, whereas the two methods fail to correctly infer the changes in standard deviation. As standard deviation change has a major impact on return level change, there is a need to improve the models and the different techniques regarding the variance changes. (orig.)

  19. What spatial scales are believable for climate model projections of sea surface temperature?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwiatkowski, Lester; Halloran, Paul R.; Mumby, Peter J.; Stephenson, David B.

    2014-09-01

    Earth system models (ESMs) provide high resolution simulations of variables such as sea surface temperature (SST) that are often used in off-line biological impact models. Coral reef modellers have used such model outputs extensively to project both regional and global changes to coral growth and bleaching frequency. We assess model skill at capturing sub-regional climatologies and patterns of historical warming. This study uses an established wavelet-based spatial comparison technique to assess the skill of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 models to capture spatial SST patterns in coral regions. We show that models typically have medium to high skill at capturing climatological spatial patterns of SSTs within key coral regions, with model skill typically improving at larger spatial scales (≥4°). However models have much lower skill at modelling historical warming patters and are shown to often perform no better than chance at regional scales (e.g. Southeast Asian) and worse than chance at finer scales (coral bleaching frequency and other marine processes linked to SST warming.

  20. Present and projected future mean radiant temperature for three European cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorsson, Sofia; Rayner, David; Lindberg, Fredrik; Monteiro, Ana; Katzschner, Lutz; Lau, Kevin Ka-Lun; Campe, Sabrina; Katzschner, Antje; Konarska, Janina; Onomura, Shiho; Velho, Sara; Holmer, Björn

    2017-09-01

    Present-day and projected future changes in mean radiant temperature, T mrt in one northern, one mid-, and one southern European city (represented by Gothenburg, Frankfurt, and Porto), are presented, and the concept of hot spots is adopted. Air temperature, T a , increased in all cities by 2100, but changes in solar radiation due to changes in cloudiness counterbalanced or exacerbated the effects on T mrt. The number of days with high T mrt in Gothenburg was relatively unchanged at the end of the century (+1 day), whereas it more than doubled in Frankfurt and tripled in Porto. The use of street trees to reduce daytime radiant heat load was analyzed using hot spots to identify where trees could be most beneficial. Hot spots, although varying in intensity and frequency, were generally confined to near sunlit southeast-southwest facing walls, in northeast corner of courtyards, and in open spaces in all three cities. By adding trees in these spaces, the radiant heat load can be reduced, especially in spaces with no or few trees. A set of design principles for reducing the radiant heat load is outlined based on these findings and existing literature.

  1. Soil response to long-term projections of extreme temperature and precipitation in the southern La Plata Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pántano, Vanesa C.; Penalba, Olga C.

    2017-12-01

    Projected changes were estimated considering the main variables which take part in soil-atmosphere interaction. The analysis was focused on the potential impact of these changes on soil hydric condition under extreme precipitation and evapotranspiration, using the combination of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and observational data. The region of study is the southern La Plata Basin that covers part of Argentine territory, where rainfed agriculture production is one of the most important economic activities. Monthly precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures were used from high quality-controlled observed data from 46 meteorological stations and the ensemble of seven CMIP5 GCMs in two periods: 1970-2005 and 2065-2100. Projected changes in monthly effective temperature and precipitation were analysed. These changes were combined with observed series for each probabilistic interval. The result was used as input variables for the water balance model in order to obtain consequent soil hydric condition (deficit or excess). Effective temperature and precipitation are expected to increase according to the projections of GCMs, with few exceptions. The analysis revealed increase (decrease) in the prevalence of evapotranspiration over precipitation, during spring (winter). Projections for autumn months show precipitation higher than potential evapotranspiration more frequently. Under dry extremes, the analysis revealed higher projected deficit conditions, impacting on crop development. On the other hand, under wet extremes, excess would reach higher values only in particular months. During December, projected increase in temperatures reduces the impact of extreme high precipitation but favours deficit conditions, affecting flower-fructification stage of summer crops.

  2. Observed trends in climate over Southern Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Davis-Reddy, Claire L

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The body of work on historical climate trends has been steadily increasing during the last decade. Global mean annual temperatures have increased by 0.85°C since 1880 and are projected to increase by 0.3 to 2.5 °C by 2050, relative to the 1985...

  3. Trend analysis of watershed-scale precipitation over Northern California by means of dynamically-downscaled CMIP5 future climate projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishida, K; Gorguner, M; Ercan, A; Trinh, T; Kavvas, M L

    2017-08-15

    The impacts of climate change on watershed-scale precipitation through the 21st century were investigated over eight study watersheds in Northern California based on dynamically downscaled CMIP5 future climate projections from three GCMs (CCSM4, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future climate scenarios. After evaluating the modeling capability of the WRF model, the six future climate projections were dynamically downscaled by means of the WRF model over Northern California at 9km grid resolution and hourly temporal resolution during a 94-year period (2006-2100). The biases in the model simulations were corrected, and basin-average precipitation over the eight study watersheds was calculated from the dynamically downscaled precipitation data. Based on the dynamically downscaled basin-average precipitation, trends in annual depth and annual peaks of basin-average precipitation during the 21st century were analyzed over the eight study watersheds. The analyses in this study indicate that there may be differences between trends of annual depths and annual peaks of watershed-scale precipitation during the 21st century. Furthermore, trends in watershed-scale precipitation under future climate conditions may be different for different watersheds depending on their location and topography even if they are in the same region. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Utility-Scale Solar 2013: An empirical analysis of project cost, performance, and pricing trends in the United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bolinger, Mark [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Weaver, Samantha [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2014-09-17

    Other than the SEGS I-IX parabolic trough projects built in the 1980s, virtually no large-scale or "utility-scale" solar projects-defined here to include any ground-mounted photovoltaic ("PV"), concentrating photovoltaic ("CPV"), or concentrating solar power ("CSP" or solar thermal) project larger than 5 MWAC-existed in the United States prior to 2007.

  5. Foresight Infectious Diseases China Project--a novel approach to anticipating future trends in risk of infectious diseases in China: methodology and results from an initial application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicoll, A; Huang, J; Xie, Z

    2009-07-09

    The project devised a simple but novel methodology for identifying possible future trends in infectious diseases in animals and humans in China, of priority concern to the Chinese authorities. It used a model of disease drivers (social, economic, biological or environmental factors that affect disease outcomes, by changing the behaviour of diseases, sources or pathways) devised for the Foresight Programme in the United Kingdom. Nine families of drivers were adapted to Chinese circumstances and matrices were constructed to identify the likely relationship of single infectious diseases or families of diseases to the drivers. The likely future trends in those drivers in China were determined by interviews with 36 independent Chinese experts. These trends included not only potentially adverse animal and human movements but also opportunities for innovative surveillance methods, more use of hospitals, antimicrobials and vaccines. Some human behaviours and social trends were expected to increase the risk of infections (in particular sexually transmitted and healthcare-associated infections) while at the same time the experts thought the awareness of risk in the Chinese population would increase. The results suggested a number of areas where the Chinese authorities may experience difficulties in the future, such as rising numbers of healthcare-associated infections, zoonoses and other emerging diseases and sexually transmitted infections (including HIV). Not making firm predictions, this work identifies priority disease groups requiring surveillance and consideration of countermeasures as well as recommending strengthening basic surveillance and response mechanisms for unanticipatable zoonoses and other emerging disease threats.

  6. Trends in rooting media in Dutch horticulture during the period 2001-2005: The new growing media project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blok, C.; Verhagen, J.B.G.M.

    2009-01-01

    An overview of the developments in the area and volume of substrates used for horticultural rooting media in Holland in the period 2001 to 2005 is given. The overview is followed by a discussion of some trends in society and technology including the interest of public and society in a possible

  7. Trends and projections of vehicle crash related fatalities and injuries in Northwest Gondar, Ethiopia: A time series analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Solomon Meseret Woldeyohannes

    2014-01-01

    Conclusion: The numbers of lives lost and disabilities due to vehicle crashes indicated an upward trend in the last decade showing future burden in terms of societal and economic costs threatening the lives of many individuals. Surveillance systems that could enable to monitor patterns of vehicle crashes with preventive strategies must be established.

  8. Dynamics regulating major trends in Barents Sea temperatures and subsequent effect on remotely sensed particulate inorganic carbon

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hovland, Erlend Kjeldsberg; Dierssen, Heidi M.; Ferreira, Ana Sofia

    2013-01-01

    A more comprehensive understanding of how ocean temperatures influence coccolithophorid production of particulate inorganic carbon (PIC) will make it easier to constrain the effect of ocean acidification in the future. We studied the effect of temperature on Emiliania huxleyi PIC production...

  9. Trends and variability of daily temperature extremes during 1960-2012 in the Yangtze River Basin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    The variability of temperature extremes has been the focus of attention during the past few decades, and may exert a great influence on the global hydrologic cycle and energy balance through thermal forcing. Based on daily minimum and maximum temperature observed by the China Meteorological Administ...

  10. Industry trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    This section discusses the US energy supply and demand situation including projections for energy use, the clean coal industry (constraints of regulation on investment in new technologies, technology trends, and current pollution control efficiency), opportunities in clean coal technology (Phase 2 requirements of Title 4 of the Clean Air Act, scrubber demand for lime and limestone, and demand for low sulfur coal), and the international market of clean coal technologies

  11. Enriched-uranium feed costs for the High-Temperature Gas-Cooled reactor: trends and comparison with other reactor concepts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, W.E.

    1976-04-01

    This report discusses each of the components that affect the unit cost for enriched uranium; that is, ore costs, U 3 O 8 to UF 6 conversion cost, costs for enriching services, and changes in transaction tails assay. Historical trends and announced changes are included. Unit costs for highly enriched uranium (93.15 percent 235 U) and for low-enrichment uranium (3.0, 3.2, and 3.5 percent 235 U) are displayed as a function of changes in the above components and compared. It is demonstrated that the trends in these cost components will probably result in significantly less cost increase for highly enriched uranium than for low-enrichment uranium--hence favoring the High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor

  12. Thinning and prescribed fire and projected trends in wood product potential, financial return, and fire hazard in New Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roger D. Fight; R. James Barbour; Glenn Christensen; Guy L. Pinjuv; Rao V. Nagubadi

    2004-01-01

    This work was undertaken under a joint fire science project "Assessing the need, costs, and potential benefits of prescribed fire and mechanical treatments to reduce fire hazard." This paper compares the future mix of timber projects under two treatment scenarios for New Mexico.We developed and demonstrated an analytical method that uses readily available...

  13. Viking GCMS Data Restoral and Perceiving Temperature on Other Worlds: Astrobiology Projects at NASA Ames

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guzman, Melissa

    2015-01-01

    The primary task for the summer was to procure the GCMS data from the National Space Science Data Coordinated Archive (NSSDCA) and to assess the current state of the data set for possible reanalysis opportunities. After procurement of the Viking GCMS data set and analysis of its current state, the internship focus shifted to preparing a plan for restoral and archiving of the GCMS data set. A proposal was prepared and submitted to NASA Headquarters to restore and make available the 8000 mass chromatographs that are the basic data generated by the Viking GCMS instrument. The relevance of this restoral and the methodology we propose for restoral is presented. The secondary task for the summer is to develop a thermal model for the perceived temperature of a human standing on Mars, Titan, or Europa. Traditionally, an equation called "Fanger's comfort equation" is used to measure the perceived temperature by a human in a given reference environment. However, there are limitations to this model when applied to other planets. Therefore, the approach for this project has been to derive energy balance equations from first principles and then develop a methodology for correlating "comfort" to energy balance. Using the -20 C walk-in freezer in the Space Sciences building at NASA Ames, energy loss of a human subject is measured. Energy loss for a human being on Mars, Titan and Europa are calculated from first principles. These calculations are compared to the freezer measurements, e.g. for 1 minute on Titan, a human loses as much energy as x minutes in a -20 C freezer. This gives a numerical comparison between the environments. These energy calculations are used to consider the physiological comfort of a human based on the calculated energy losses.

  14. Development of the RGB LEDs color mixing mechanism for stability the color temperature at different projection distances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Chih-Ching

    2015-01-01

    In lighting application, the color mixing of the RGB LEDs can provide more color selection in correlated color temperature and color rendering. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to propose a RGB color mixing mechanism by applying the mechanism design. Three sets of lamp-type RGB LEDs are individually installed on three four-bar linkages. A crank is used to drive three groups of RGB LEDs lamp-type to project lights onto a single plane in order to mix the lights. And, simulations of the illuminance and associated color temperatures are conducted by changing the distance to the projection plane, under the assumption that the stability of the color temperature of the projected light does not change according to the projecting height. Thus, the effect of change in the color temperature on color determination by the humans' eyes was avoided. The success of the proposed method will allow medical personnel to choose suitable wavelengths and color temperatures according to the particular requirements of their medical-examination environments.

  15. LXCat: A web-based, community-wide project on data for modeling low temperature plasmas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitchford, L. C.

    2014-10-01

    LXCat is an open-access website (www.lxcat.net) for exchanging data related to ion and electron transport and scattering cross sections in cold, neutral gases. At present 30 people from 12 countries have contributed to the LXCat project. This presentation will focus on the status of the data available for electrons on LXCat. These data are primarily in the form of ``complete'' sets of cross sections, compiled or calculated by different contributors, covering a range of energies from thermal up to about 1 keV. The cross section data can be used directly in Monte Carlo simulations and can also be used as input to Boltzmann equation solvers. Solution of the homogeneous, steady-state Boltzmann equation yields electron energy distribution functions (edf) as a function of reduced electric field strength, E/N, integrals over which yield electron transport and rate coefficients. The transport and rate coefficient data are required input for fluid models of low temperature plasmas. Evaluation of the cross section data sets available on LXCat is a key issue. To this end, the LXCat team has been making systematic intercomparisons of cross section data and comparisons of calculated and measured transport and rate coefficients. Our evaluations have been reported previously for noble gases and for common atmospheric gases. The LXCat team is now evaluating data for more complex molecules.

  16. [Dust storms trend in the Capital Circle of China over the past 50 years and its correlation with temperature, precipitation and wind].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yu-fu; Tang, Hai-ping

    2005-01-01

    The trends of number of dust storm days of the selected 11 meteorological stations from their established year to 2000 as well as their correlations with temperature, precipitation and wind are revealed. The number of dust storm days of the Capital Circle of China is distinctly variable in space and time. The numbers of dust storm days of the western area are far more than those of the eastern area. The interannual variability of number of dust storm days is remarkable. The number of dust storm days of the following 7 stations, Erlianhaote, Abaga, Xilinhaote, Fengning, Zhangjiakou, Huailai and Beijing, declined along the past decades, but those of the other four stations had no significant upward or downward trends. There is a marked seasonality of the number of dust storm days, and the maximum was in April. The correlation between number of dust storm days and number of days of mean wind velocity > 5 m/s, which is critical wind velocity to entrain sand into the air, was strongest among the three climatic factor. There were significant positive correlations between the number of dust storm days and number of days of mean wind velocity > 5 m/s in 6 stations. The second strongest climatic factor correlated with the number of dust storm days is temperature. There are significant negative correlations between the number of dust storm days and mean annual temperature, mean winter temperature, mean spring temperature in 3 or 4 stations. The correlation between the number of dust storm days and precipitation is weakest. Only one station, Zhurihe, showes significant negative correlation between the number of dust storm days and spring rainfall. There are 4 stations whose number of dust storm days don't significantly correlate with the climate. In the end, the spatial-temporal variability of dust storms and its relation with climate in the Capital Circle of China were discussed thoroughly.

  17. EnviroAtlas - Ecosystem Service Market and Project Enabling Conditions, U.S., 2016, Forest Trends' Ecosystem Marketplace

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This EnviroAtlas dataset contains polygons depicting conditions enabling market-based programs, referred to herein as markets, and projects addressing ecosystem...

  18. EnviroAtlas - Ecosystem Service Market and Project Areas, U.S., 2015, Forest Trends' Ecosystem Marketplace

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This EnviroAtlas dataset contains polygons depicting the geographic areas of market-based programs, referred to herein as markets, and projects addressing ecosystem...

  19. EnviroAtlas - Ecosystem Service Market and Project Locations, U.S., 2015, Forest Trends' Ecosystem Marketplace

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This EnviroAtlas dataset contains points depicting the location of market-based programs, referred to herein as markets, and projects addressing ecosystem services...

  20. Porosity and sonic velocity depth trends of Eocene chalk in Atlantic Ocean: Influence of effective stress and temperature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Awedalkarim, Ahmed; Fabricius, Ida Lykke

    2014-01-01

    We aimed to relate changes in porosity and sonic velocity data, measured on water-saturated Eocene chalks from 36 Ocean Drilling Program drill sites in the Atlantic Ocean, to vertical effective stress and thermal maturity. We considered only chalk of Eocene age to avoid possible influence...... not show or at least it is difficult to define a clear pore-stiffening contact cementation trend as the Ontong Java Plateau chalk. Mechanical compaction is the principal cause of porosity reduction (at shallow depths) in the studied Eocene chalk, at least down to about 5MPa Terzaghi׳s effective stress...

  1. Projections of Temperature-Attributable Premature Deaths in 209 U.S. Cities Using a Cluster-Based Poisson Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Joel D.; Lee, Mihye; Kinney, Patrick L.; Yang, Suijia; Mills, David; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Jones, Russell; Streeter, Richard; St. Juliana, Alexis; Peers, Jennifer; hide

    2015-01-01

    Background: A warming climate will affect future temperature-attributable premature deaths. This analysis is the first to project these deaths at a near national scale for the United States using city and month-specific temperature-mortality relationships. Methods: We used Poisson regressions to model temperature-attributable premature mortality as a function of daily average temperature in 209 U.S. cities by month. We used climate data to group cities into clusters and applied an Empirical Bayes adjustment to improve model stability and calculate cluster-based month-specific temperature-mortality functions. Using data from two climate models, we calculated future daily average temperatures in each city under Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0. Holding population constant at 2010 levels, we combined the temperature data and cluster-based temperature-mortality functions to project city-specific temperature-attributable premature deaths for multiple future years which correspond to a single reporting year. Results within the reporting periods are then averaged to account for potential climate variability and reported as a change from a 1990 baseline in the future reporting years of 2030, 2050 and 2100. Results: We found temperature-mortality relationships that vary by location and time of year. In general, the largest mortality response during hotter months (April - September) was in July in cities with cooler average conditions. The largest mortality response during colder months (October-March) was at the beginning (October) and end (March) of the period. Using data from two global climate models, we projected a net increase in premature deaths, aggregated across all 209 cities, in all future periods compared to 1990. However, the magnitude and sign of the change varied by cluster and city. Conclusions: We found increasing future premature deaths across the 209 modeled U.S. cities using two climate model projections, based on constant temperature

  2. Temperature and humidity based projections of a rapid rise in global heat stress exposure during the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coffel, Ethan D.; Horton, Radley M.; de Sherbinin, Alex

    2018-01-01

    As a result of global increases in both temperature and specific humidity, heat stress is projected to intensify throughout the 21st century. Some of the regions most susceptible to dangerous heat and humidity combinations are also among the most densely populated. Consequently, there is the potential for widespread exposure to wet bulb temperatures that approach and in some cases exceed postulated theoretical limits of human tolerance by mid- to late-century. We project that by 2080 the relative frequency of present-day extreme wet bulb temperature events could rise by a factor of 100-250 (approximately double the frequency change projected for temperature alone) in the tropics and parts of the mid-latitudes, areas which are projected to contain approximately half the world’s population. In addition, population exposure to wet bulb temperatures that exceed recent deadly heat waves may increase by a factor of five to ten, with 150-750 million person-days of exposure to wet bulb temperatures above those seen in today’s most severe heat waves by 2070-2080. Under RCP 8.5, exposure to wet bulb temperatures above 35 °C—the theoretical limit for human tolerance—could exceed a million person-days per year by 2080. Limiting emissions to follow RCP 4.5 entirely eliminates exposure to that extreme threshold. Some of the most affected regions, especially Northeast India and coastal West Africa, currently have scarce cooling infrastructure, relatively low adaptive capacity, and rapidly growing populations. In the coming decades heat stress may prove to be one of the most widely experienced and directly dangerous aspects of climate change, posing a severe threat to human health, energy infrastructure, and outdoor activities ranging from agricultural production to military training.

  3. Utility-Scale Solar 2014. An Empirical Analysis of Project Cost, Performance, and Pricing Trends in the United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bolinger, Mark [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Seel, Joachim [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2015-09-01

    Other than the nine Solar Energy Generation Systems (“SEGS”) parabolic trough projects built in the 1980s, virtually no large-scale or “utility-scale” solar projects – defined here to include any groundmounted photovoltaic (“PV”), concentrating photovoltaic (“CPV”), or concentrating solar thermal power (“CSP”) project larger than 5 MWAC – existed in the United States prior to 2007. By 2012 – just five years later – utility-scale had become the largest sector of the overall PV market in the United States, a distinction that was repeated in both 2013 and 2014 and that is expected to continue for at least the next few years. Over this same short period, CSP also experienced a bit of a renaissance in the United States, with a number of large new parabolic trough and power tower systems – some including thermal storage – achieving commercial operation. With this critical mass of new utility-scale projects now online and in some cases having operated for a number of years (generating not only electricity, but also empirical data that can be mined), the rapidly growing utility-scale sector is ripe for analysis. This report, the third edition in an ongoing annual series, meets this need through in-depth, annually updated, data-driven analysis of not just installed project costs or prices – i.e., the traditional realm of solar economics analyses – but also operating costs, capacity factors, and power purchase agreement (“PPA”) prices from a large sample of utility-scale solar projects in the United States. Given its current dominance in the market, utility-scale PV also dominates much of this report, though data from CPV and CSP projects are presented where appropriate.

  4. Quantifying the Trends in Land Surface Temperature and Surface Urban Heat Island Intensity in Mediterranean Cities in View of Smart Urbanization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anastasios Polydoros

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Land Surface Temperature (LST is a key parameter for the estimation of urban fluxes as well as for the assessment of the presence and strength of the surface urban heat island (SUHI. In an urban environment, LST depends on the way the city has been planned and developed over time. To this end, the estimation of LST needs adequate spatial and temporal data at the urban scale, especially with respect to land cover/land use. The present study is divided in two parts: at first, satellite data from MODIS-Terra 8-day product (MOD11A2 were used for the analysis of an eighteen-year time series (2001–2017 of the LST spatial and temporal distribution in five major cities of the Mediterranean during the summer months. LST trends were retrieved and assessed for their statistical significance. Secondly, LST values and trends for each city were examined in relation to land cover characteristics and patterns in order to define the contribution of urban development and planning on LST; this information is important for the drafting of smart urbanization policies and measures. Results revealed (a positive LST trends in the urban areas especially during nighttime ranging from +0.412 °K in Marseille to +0.923 °K in Cairo and (b the SUHI has intensified during the last eighteen years especially during daytime in European Mediterranean cities, such as Rome (+0.332 °K and Barcelona (+0.307 °K.

  5. Increasing persistent haze in Beijing: potential impacts of weakening East Asian winter monsoons associated with northwestern Pacific sea surface temperature trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Pei

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Over the past decades, Beijing, the capital city of China, has encountered increasingly frequent persistent haze events (PHE. While the increased pollutant emissions are considered as the most important reason, changes in regional atmospheric circulations associated with large-scale climate warming also play a role. In this study, we find a significant positive trend of PHE in Beijing for the winters from 1980 to 2016 based on updated daily observations. This trend is closely related to an increasing frequency of extreme anomalous southerly episodes in North China, a weakened East Asian trough in the mid-troposphere and a northward shift of the East Asian jet stream in the upper troposphere. These conditions together depict a weakened East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM system, which is then found to be associated with an anomalous warm, high-pressure system in the middle–lower troposphere over the northwestern Pacific. A practical EAWM index is defined as the seasonal meridional wind anomaly at 850 hPa in winter over North China. Over the period 1900–2016, this EAWM index is positively correlated with the sea surface temperature anomalies over the northwestern Pacific, which indicates a wavy positive trend, with an enhanced positive phase since the mid-1980s. Our results suggest an observation-based mechanism linking the increase in PHE in Beijing with large-scale climatic warming through changes in the typical regional atmospheric circulation.

  6. The GODAE High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature Pilot Project (GHRSST-PP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donlon, C.; Ghrsst-Pp Science Team

    2003-04-01

    This paper summarises Development and Implementation Plan of the GODAE High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature Pilot Project (GHRSST-PP). The aim of the GHRSST-PP is to coordinate a new generation of global, multi-sensor, high-resolution (better than 10 km and 12 hours) SST products for the benefit of the operational and scientific community and for those with a potential interest in the products of GODAE. The GHRSST-PP project will deliver a demonstration system that integrates data from existing international satellite and in situ data sources using state-of-the-art communications and analysis tools. Primary GHRSST-PP products will be generated by fusing infrared and microwave satellite data obtained from sensors in near polar, geostationary and low earth orbits, constrained by in situ observations. Surface skin SST, sub-surface SST and SST at depth will be produced as both merged and analysed data products. Merged data products have a common grid but all input data retaining their error statistics whereas analysed data products use all data to derive a best estimate data source having one set of error statistics. Merged SST fields will not be interpolated thereby preserving the integrity of the source data as much as possible. Products will be first produced and validated using in situ observations for regional areas by regional data assembly centres (RDAC) and sent to a global data analysis centre (GDAC) for integration with other data to provide global coverage. GDAC and RDAC will be connected together with other data using a virtual dynamic distributed database (DDD). The GDAC will merge and analyse RDAC data together with other data (from the GTS and space agencies) to provide global coverage every 12 hours in real time. In all cases data products will be accurate to better than 0.5 K validated using data collected at globally distributed diagnostic data set (DDS) sites. A user information service (UIS) will work together with user applications and services

  7. TEMPERATURE TRENDS OF THE PERMITTIVITY IN COMPLEX OXIDES OF RARE-EARTH ELEMENTS WITH PEROVSKITE-TYPE STRUCTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.G.Belous

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Ceramic materials based on complex oxides with both the perovskite structure (Ln2/3Nb2O6 and the structure of tetragonal tungsten bronze (Ba6-xLn8+2x/3Ti18O54 have been investigated over a wide frequency and temperature ranges. The results obtained for certain structures denote the presence of the temperature anomalies of dielectric parameters (ε, tanδ. These anomalies occur over the wide frequency range including submilimeter (SMM wavelength range, and are related neither with the processing peculiarities nor with the presence of the phase transitions. Temperature behavior of the permittivity has been considered in terms of the polarization mechanism based on the elastic-strain lattice oscillations. It has been assumed that the observed anomalies could be ascribed to a superposition of harmonic and anharmonic contribution to lattice oscillations that determines τε sign and magnitude.

  8. Insect temperature-body size trends common to laboratory, latitudinal and seasonal gradients are not found across altitudes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Horne, Curtis R.; Hirst, Andrew G.; Atkinson, David

    2018-01-01

    Body size affects rates of most biological and ecological processes, from individual performance to ecosystem function, and is fundamentally linked to organism fitness. Within species, size at maturity can vary systematically with environmental temperature in the laboratory and across seasons...... altitude. Although the general direction of body size clines along altitudinal gradients has been examined previously, to our knowledge altitude-body size (A-S) clines have never been synthesised quantitatively, nor compared with temperature-size (T-S) responses measured under controlled laboratory......, as well as over latitudinal gradients. Recent meta-analyses have revealed a close match in the magnitude and direction of these size gradients in various arthropod orders, suggesting that these size responses share common drivers. As with increasing latitude, temperature also decreases with increasing...

  9. High Temperature Syngas Cleanup Technology Scale-up and Demonstration Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gardner, Ben [Research Triangle Inst. (RTI), Research Triangle Park, NC (United States); Turk, Brian [Research Triangle Inst. (RTI), Research Triangle Park, NC (United States); Denton, David [Research Triangle Inst. (RTI), Research Triangle Park, NC (United States); Gupta, Raghubir [Research Triangle Inst. (RTI), Research Triangle Park, NC (United States)

    2015-09-30

    Gasification is a technology for clean energy conversion of diverse feedstocks into a wide variety of useful products such as chemicals, fertilizers, fuels, electric power, and hydrogen. Existing technologies can be employed to clean the syngas from gasification processes to meet the demands of such applications, but they are expensive to build and operate and consume a significant fraction of overall parasitic energy requirements, thus lowering overall process efficiency. RTI International has developed a warm syngas desulfurization process (WDP) utilizing a transport-bed reactor design and a proprietary attrition-resistant, high-capacity solid sorbent with excellent performance replicated at lab, bench, and pilot scales. Results indicated that WDP technology can improve both efficiency and cost of gasification plants. The WDP technology achieved ~99.9% removal of total sulfur (as either H2S or COS) from coal-derived syngas at temperatures as high as 600°C and over a wide range of pressures (20-80 bar, pressure independent performance) and sulfur concentrations. Based on the success of these tests, RTI negotiated a cooperative agreement with the U.S. Department of Energy for precommercial testing of this technology at Tampa Electric Company’s Polk Power Station IGCC facility in Tampa, Florida. The project scope also included a sweet water-gas-shift process for hydrogen enrichment and an activated amine process for 90+% total carbon capture. Because the activated amine process provides some additional non-selective sulfur removal, the integration of these processes was expected to reduce overall sulfur in the syngas to sub-ppmv concentrations, suitable for most syngas applications. The overall objective of this project was to mitigate the technical risks associated with the scale up and integration of the WDP and carbon dioxide capture technologies, enabling subsequent commercial-scale demonstration. The warm syngas cleanup pre-commercial test unit

  10. Effects of Helicobacter pylori infection and smoking on gastric cancer incidence in China: a population-level analysis of trends and projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldie, Sue J.; Kuntz, Karen M.; Ezzati, Majid

    2010-01-01

    Objective Although gastric cancer incidence is declining in China, trends may differ from historical patterns in developed countries. Our aim was to (1) retrospectively estimate the effects of Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) and smoking on past gastric cancer incidence and (2) project how interventions on these two risk factors can reduce future incidence. Methods We used a population-based model of intestinal-type gastric cancer to estimate gastric cancer incidence between 1985 and 2050. Disease and risk factor data in the model were from community-based epidemiological studies and national prevalence surveys. Results Between 1985 and 2005, age-standardized gastric cancer incidence among Chinese men declined from 30.8 to 27.2 per 100,000 (12%); trends in H. pylori and smoking prevalences accounted for >30% of overall decline. If past risk factor trends continue, gastric cancer incidence will decline an additional 30% by 2050. Yet, annual cases will increase from 116,000 to 201,000 due to population growth and aging. Assuming that H. pylori prevention/treatment and tobacco control are implemented in 2010, the decline in gastric cancer incidence is projected to increase to 33% with universal H. pylori treatment for 20-year-olds, 42% for a hypothetical childhood H. pylori vaccine, and 34% for aggressive tobacco control. Conclusions The decline in gastric cancer incidence has been slower than in developed countries and will be offset by population growth and aging. Public health interventions should be implemented to reduce the total number of cases. PMID:19642005

  11. Thinning and prescribed fire and projected trends in wood product potential, financial return, and fire hazard in Montana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    R. James Barbour; Roger D. Fight; Glenn A. Christensen; Guy L. Pinjuv; Rao V. Nagubadi

    2004-01-01

    This work was undertaken under a joint fire science project "Assessing the need, costs, and potential benefits of prescribed fire and mechanical treatments to reduce fire hazard." This paper compares the future mix of timber products under two treatment scenarios for the state of Montana. We developed and demonstrated an analytical method that uses readily...

  12. Developing European conservation and mitigation tools for pollination services: approaches of the STEP (Status and Trends of European Pollinators) project

    OpenAIRE

    Potts, Simon G.; Biesmeijer, Jacobus C.; Bommarco, Riccardo; Felicioli, Antonio; Fischer, Markus; Jokinen, Pekka; Kleijn, David; Klein, Alexandra-Maria; Kunin, William E.; Neumann, Peter; Penev, Lyubomir D.; Petanidou, Theodora; Rasmont, Pierre; Roberts, Stuart P. M.; Smith, Henrik G.

    2011-01-01

    [ES] Los insectos polinizadores forman un componente clave de la biodiversidad europea, y proporcionan servicios vitales a los ecosistemas de plantas cultivadas y silvestres. Existe una creciente evidencia del declive de polinizadores silvestres y domesticados, y del declive paralelo de las plantas que dependen de ellos. El proyecto STEP (Estado y tendencias de los polinizadores europeos, 2010-2015, www.step-project.net) está documentando elementos críticos en la naturaleza y la extensión de ...

  13. Changes in Soil Dissolved Organic Carbon Affect Reconstructed History and Projected Future Trends in Surface Water Acidification

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hruška, Jakub; Krám, Pavel; Moldan, Filip; Oulehle, Filip; Evans, C. D.; Wright, R. F.; Cosby, B. J.; Kopáček, Jiří

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 225, č. 7 (2014), s. 2015 ISSN 0049-6979 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 ; RVO:60077344 Keywords : acidification * surface waters * soils * dissolved organic carbon * magic model * preindustrial water chemistry Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour; DA - Hydrology ; Limnology (BC-A) Impact factor: 1.554, year: 2014

  14. The role of land-climate interactions for the regional amplification of temperature extremes in climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seneviratne, S. I.; Vogel, M.; Zscheischler, J.; Schwingshackl, C.; Davin, E.; Gudmundsson, L.; Guillod, B.; Hauser, M.; Hirsch, A.; Hirschi, M.; Humphrey, V.; Thiery, W.

    2017-12-01

    Regional hot extremes are projected to increase more strongly than the global mean temperature, with substantially larger changes than 2°C even if global warming is limited to this level (Seneviratne et al. 2016). This presentation will highlight the processes underlying this behavior, which is strongly related to land-climate feedbacks (Vogel et al. 2017). The identified feedbacks are also affecting the occurrence probability of compound drought and heat events (Zscheischler and Seneviratne 2017), with high relevance for impacts on forest fire and agriculture production. Moreover, the responsible land processes strongly contribute to the inter-model spread in the projections, and can thus be used to derive observations-based constraints to reduce the uncertainty of projected changes in climate extremes. Finally, we will also discuss the role of soil moisture effects on carbon uptake and their relevance for projections, as well as the role of land use changes in affecting the identified feedbacks and projected changes in climate extremes. References: Seneviratne, S.I., M. Donat, A.J. Pitman, R. Knutti, and R.L. Wilby, 2016: Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets. Nature, 529, 477-483, doi:10.1038/nature16542. Vogel, M.M., R. Orth, F. Cheruy, S. Hagemann, R. Lorenz, B.J.J.M. Hurk, and S.I. Seneviratne, 2017: Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(3), 1511-1519, doi:10.1002/2016GL071235. Zscheischler, J., and S.I. Seneviratne, 2017: Dependence of drivers affects risks associated with compound events. Science Advances, 3(6), doi: 10.1126/sciadv.1700263

  15. Comparison of regional and seasonal changes and trends in daily surface temperature extremes over India and its subregions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimri, A. P.

    2018-04-01

    Regional changes in surface meteorological variables are one of the key issues affecting the Indian subcontinent especially in recent decades. These changes impact agriculture, health, water, etc., hence important to assess and investigate these changes. The Indian subcontinent is characterized by heterogeneous temperature regimes at regional and seasonal scales. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) observations are limited to recent decades as far as its spatial distribution is concerned. In particular, over Hilly region, these observations are sporadic. Due to variable topography and heterogeneous land use/land cover, it is complex to substantiate impacts. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim (ERA-I) reanalysis not only covers a larger spatial domain but also provides a greater number of inputs than IMD. This study used ERA-I in conjunction with IMD gridded data to provide a comparative assessment of changing temperature patterns over India and its subregions at both regional and seasonal scales. Warming patterns are observed in both ERA-I and IMD data sets. Cold nights decrease during winter; warm days increase and warm spell duration increased during winter could become a cause of concern for society, agriculture, socio-economic reasons, and health. Increasing warm days over the hilly regions may affect the corresponding snow cover and thus river hydrology and glaciological dynamics. Such changes during monsoon are slower, which could be attributed to moisture availability to dampen the temperature changes. On investigation and comparison thereon, the present study provisions usages of ERA-I-based indices for various impact and adaptation studies.

  16. High-temperature gas-cooled reactor steam cycle/cogeneration: lead project strategy plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1982-07-01

    The strategy, contained herein, for developing the HTGR system and introducing it into the energy marketplace is based on using the most developed technology path to establish a HTGR-Steam Cycle/Cogeneration (SC/C) Lead Project. Given the status of the HTGR-SC/C technology, a Lead Plant could be completed and operational by the mid 1990s. While there is remaining design and technology development that must be accomplished to fulfill technical and licensing requirements for a Lead Project commitment, the major barriers to the realization a HTGR-SC/C Lead Project are institutional in nature, e.g. budget priorities and constraints, cost/risk sharing between the public and private sector, Project organization and management, and Project financing. These problems are further complicated by the overall pervading issues of economic and regulatory instability that presently confront the utility and nuclear industries. This document addresses the major institutional issues associated with the HTGR-SC/C Lead Project and provides a starting point for discussions between prospective Lead Project participants toward the realization of such a Project

  17. HTR 500: Final report of the project '' uniaxial creep tests at controlled temperature''

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-03-01

    The report presents the results of creep trials with HTR-concrete, which were carried out in the scope of development of prestressed concrete - reactor pressure vessels at the ETH Lausanne Institute for Steel and Prestressed Concrete. With temperature, an increase of creep and shrinkage was observed, a lesser dependence on exhaustion and type of concrete. The point in time of reaching the final value is not dependent on temperature for creep, but is for shrinkage. The modulus of elasticity depends on the temperature pre-treatment, but only insignificantly on the test temperature. figs., tabs

  18. Mean and extreme temperatures in a warming climate: EURO CORDEX and WRF regional climate high-resolution projections for Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardoso, Rita M.; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Lima, Daniela C. A.; Miranda, Pedro M. A.

    2018-02-01

    Large temperature spatio-temporal gradients are a common feature of Mediterranean climates. The Portuguese complex topography and coastlines enhances such features, and in a small region large temperature gradients with high interannual variability is detected. In this study, the EURO-CORDEX high-resolution regional climate simulations (0.11° and 0.44° resolutions) are used to investigate the maximum and minimum temperature projections across the twenty-first century according to RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. An additional WRF simulation with even higher resolution (9 km) for RCP8.5 scenario is also examined. All simulations for the historical period (1971-2000) are evaluated against the available station observations and the EURO-CORDEX model results are ranked in order to build multi-model ensembles. In present climate models are able to reproduce the main topography/coast related temperature gradients. Although there are discernible differences between models, most present a cold bias. The multi-model ensembles improve the overall representation of the temperature. The ensembles project a significant increase of the maximum and minimum temperatures in all seasons and scenarios. Maximum increments of 8 °C in summer and autumn and between 2 and 4 °C in winter and spring are projected in RCP8.5. The temperature distributions for all models show a significant increase in the upper tails of the PDFs. In RCP8.5 more than half of the extended summer (MJJAS) has maximum temperatures exceeding the historical 90th percentile and, on average, 60 tropical nights are projected for the end of the century, whilst there are only 7 tropical nights in the historical period. Conversely, the number of cold days almost disappears. The yearly average number of heat waves increases by seven to ninefold by 2100 and the most frequent length rises from 5 to 22 days throughout the twenty-first century. 5% of the longest events will last for more than one month. The amplitude is overwhelming

  19. Trends and projections in Europe 2013. Tracking progress towards Europe's climate and energy targets until 2020

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-10-01

    This report provide an assessment of the progress of the EU and European countries towards achieving their climate mitigation and energy policy objectives. These targets include international commitments pursuant the KP and the EU 2020 commitment to reduce by 20 % greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to 1990, to create 20 % of energy consumption from renewables and to increase energy efficiency by 20 %. The assessment is based on GHG data for the period 2008-2012, including recent estimates of proxy 2012 GHG emissions, GHG projections until 2020 submitted by Member States in 2013, as well as energy statistics until 2011. (Author)

  20. Utility-Scale Solar 2013: An Empirical Analysis of Project Cost, Performance, and Pricing Trends in the United States

    OpenAIRE

    Bolinger, M; Weaver, S

    2014-01-01

    The utility-scale solar sector has led the overall U.S. solar market in terms of installed capacity since 2012. In 2016, the utility-scale sector installed more than 2.5 times as much new capacity as did the residential and commercial sectors combined, and is expected to maintain its dominant position for at least another five years. This report—the fifth edition in an ongoing annual series—provides data-driven analysis of the utility-scale solar project fleet in the United States. We analyze...

  1. Trend and future of diesel engine: Development of high efficiency and low emission low temperature combustion diesel engine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ho, R J; Yusoff, M Z; Palanisamy, K

    2013-01-01

    Stringent emission policy has put automotive research and development on developing high efficiency and low pollutant power train. Conventional direct injection diesel engine with diffused flame has reached its limitation and has driven R and D to explore other field of combustion. Low temperature combustion (LTC) and homogeneous charge combustion ignition has been proven to be effective methods in decreasing combustion pollutant emission. Nitrogen Oxide (NO x ) and Particulate Matter (PM) formation from combustion can be greatly suppressed. A review on each of method is covered to identify the condition and processes that result in these reductions. The critical parameters that allow such combustion to take place will be highlighted and serves as emphasis to the direction of developing future diesel engine system. This paper is written to explore potential of present numerical and experimental methods in optimizing diesel engine design through adoption of the new combustion technology.

  2. Trend and future of diesel engine: Development of high efficiency and low emission low temperature combustion diesel engine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, R. J.; Yusoff, M. Z.; Palanisamy, K.

    2013-06-01

    Stringent emission policy has put automotive research & development on developing high efficiency and low pollutant power train. Conventional direct injection diesel engine with diffused flame has reached its limitation and has driven R&D to explore other field of combustion. Low temperature combustion (LTC) and homogeneous charge combustion ignition has been proven to be effective methods in decreasing combustion pollutant emission. Nitrogen Oxide (NOx) and Particulate Matter (PM) formation from combustion can be greatly suppressed. A review on each of method is covered to identify the condition and processes that result in these reductions. The critical parameters that allow such combustion to take place will be highlighted and serves as emphasis to the direction of developing future diesel engine system. This paper is written to explore potential of present numerical and experimental methods in optimizing diesel engine design through adoption of the new combustion technology.

  3. Vulnerability of California specialty crops to projected mid-century temperature changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Increasing global temperatures are likely to have major impacts on agriculture, but the effects will vary by crop and location. This paper describes the temperature sensitivity and exposure of selected specialty crops in California. We used literature synthesis to create several sensitivity indices ...

  4. Projected rainfall and temperature changes over Malaysia at the end of the 21st century based on PRECIS modelling system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loh, Jui Le; Tangang, Fredolin; Juneng, Liew; Hein, David; Lee, Dong-In

    2016-05-01

    This study investigates projected changes in rainfall and temperature over Malaysia by the end of the 21st century based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2, A1B and B2 emission scenarios using the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS). The PRECIS regional climate model (HadRM3P) is configured in 0.22° × 0.22° horizontal grid resolution and is forced at the lateral boundaries by the UKMO-HadAM3P and UKMOHadCM3Q0 global models. The model performance in simulating the present-day climate was assessed by comparing the modelsimulated results to the Asian Precipitation - Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE) dataset. Generally, the HadAM3P/PRECIS and HadCM3Q0/PRECIS simulated the spatio-temporal variability structure of both temperature and rainfall reasonably well, albeit with the presence of cold biases. The cold biases appear to be associated with the systematic error in the HadRM3P. The future projection of temperature indicates widespread warming over the entire country by the end of the 21st century. The projected temperature increment ranges from 2.5 to 3.9°C, 2.7 to 4.2°C and 1.7 to 3.1°C for A2, A1B and B2 scenarios, respectively. However, the projection of rainfall at the end of the 21st century indicates substantial spatio-temporal variation with a tendency for drier condition in boreal winter and spring seasons while wetter condition in summer and fall seasons. During the months of December to May, ~20-40% decrease of rainfall is projected over Peninsular Malaysia and Borneo, particularly for the A2 and B2 emission scenarios. During the summer months, rainfall is projected to increase by ~20-40% across most regions in Malaysia, especially for A2 and A1B scenarios. The spatio-temporal variations in the projected rainfall can be related to the changes in the weakening monsoon circulations, which in turn alter the patterns of

  5. The Past and Future Trends of Heat Stress Based On Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Index in Outdoor Environment of Tehran City, Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habibi Mohraz, Majid; Ghahri, Asghar; Karimi, Mehrdad; Golbabaei, Farideh

    2016-06-01

    The workers who are working in the open and warm environments are at risk of health effects of climate and heat changes. It is expected that the risk is increase with global warming. This study aimed to investigate the changes of Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) index in the past and to predict their trend of future changes in Tehran, capital of Iran. The meteorological data recorded in Tehran, Iran during the statistical period between 1961 and 2009 were obtained from the Iran Meteorological Organization and based on them, WBGT index was calculated and processed using Man-Kendall correlation test. The results of Man-Kendall correlation test showed that the trend of changes of annual mean WBGT during the statistical period under study (1961-2009) has been significantly increasing. In addition, the result of proposed predictive model estimated that an increase of about 1.55 degree in WBGT index will be seen over 40 years from 2009 to 2050 in Tehran. Climate change in Tehran has had an effect on person's exposure to heat stresses consistent with global warming.

  6. The significance of climate change in the Netherlands. An analysis of historical and future trends (1901-2020) in weather conditions, weather extremes and temperature-related impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Visser, H.

    2005-07-01

    A rigorous statistical analysis reveals changes in Dutch climate that are statistically significant over the last century. Annually averaged temperatures have increased by 1.5 about 0.5 degrees Centigrade; the number of summer days has roughly doubled from 14 about 5 to 27 about 9 days; annual precipitation has increased by 120 about 100 mm; and the number of extremely wet days has increased by about 40%, from 19 about 3 to 26 about 3 days. Several other changes in Dutch climate, such as spring temperatures rising more rapidly than winter temperatures, the increase of the coldest temperature in each year by 0.9 degrees Centigrade and the annual maximum day sum of precipitation, turn out to be not (yet) statistically significant. The changes in Dutch climate have already led to several statistically significant impacts. The length of the growing season has increased by nearly a month, and the number of heating-degree days, a measure for the energy needed for the heating of houses and buildings, has decreased by 14 about 5%. Projections of future temperature increase in 2020 based on the statistical analysis closely resemble projections based on climate models: temperatures continue to increase from 10.4 about 0.4 degrees Centigrade in 2003 to 10.7 about 0.6 degrees Centigrade in 2010 and 11.1 about 1.0 degrees Centigrade in 2020. The energy needed for heating of houses and buildings is expected to decrease further. This warming effect is expected to lower projections of future Dutch greenhouse-gas emissions by 3.5 Mton CO2 equivalents, which is relevant in the context of commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. Finally, over the course of the 20th century the chance on an 'Elfstedentocht', an outdoor skating event in the Netherlands, has decreased from once every five years to once every ten years. Even though this impact change is not yet statistically significant, it resides 'on the edge' of significance: within a few years more evidence may

  7. Climate Change Impacts on Projections of Excess Mortality at 2030 using Spatially-Varying Ozone-Temperature Risk Surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Ander; Reich, Brian J.; Nolte, Christopher G.; Spero, Tanya L.; Hubbell, Bryan; Rappold, Ana G.

    2017-01-01

    We project the change in ozone-related mortality burden attributable to changes in climate between a historical (1995–2005) and near-future (2025–2035) time period while incorporating a nonlinear and synergistic effect of ozone and temperature on mortality. We simulate air quality from climate projections varying only biogenic emissions and holding anthropogenic emissions constant, thus attributing changes in ozone only to changes in climate and independent of changes in air pollutant emissions. We estimate nonlinear, spatially-varying, ozone-temperature risk surfaces for 94 US urban areas using observed data. Using the risk surfaces and climate projections we estimate daily mortality attributable to ozone exceeding 40 ppb (moderate level) and 75 ppb (US ozone NAAQS) for each time period. The average increases in city-specific median April-October ozone and temperature between time periods are 1.02 ppb and 1.94°F; however, the results varied by region. Increases in ozone due to climate change result in an increase in ozone-mortality burden. Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 40 ppb increases by 7.7% (1.6%, 14.2%). Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 75 ppb increases by 14.2% (1.6%, 28.9%). The absolute increase in excess ozone mortality is larger for changes in moderate ozone levels, reflecting the larger number of days with moderate ozone levels. PMID:27005744

  8. The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Enli; Martre, Pierre; Zhao, Zhigan

    2017-01-01

    , we show that variations in the mathematical functions currently used to simulate temperature responses of physiological processes in 29 wheat models account for >50% of uncertainty in simulated grain yields for mean growing season temperatures from 14 °C to 33 °C. We derived a set of new temperature......Quality) and analysing their results against the HSC data and an additional global dataset from the International Heat Stress Genotpye Experiment (IHSGE)8 carried out by the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT). More importantly, we derive, based on newest knowledge and data, a set of new...

  9. Using an integral projection model to assess the effect of temperature on the growth of gilthead seabream Sparus aurata.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heather, F J; Childs, D Z; Darnaude, A M; Blanchard, J L

    2018-01-01

    Accurate information on the growth rates of fish is crucial for fisheries stock assessment and management. Empirical life history parameters (von Bertalanffy growth) are widely fitted to cross-sectional size-at-age data sampled from fish populations. This method often assumes that environmental factors affecting growth remain constant over time. The current study utilized longitudinal life history information contained in otoliths from 412 juveniles and adults of gilthead seabream, Sparus aurata, a commercially important species fished and farmed throughout the Mediterranean. Historical annual growth rates over 11 consecutive years (2002-2012) in the Gulf of Lions (NW Mediterranean) were reconstructed to investigate the effect of temperature variations on the annual growth of this fish. S. aurata growth was modelled linearly as the relationship between otolith size at year t against otolith size at the previous year t-1. The effect of temperature on growth was modelled with linear mixed effects models and a simplified linear model to be implemented in a cohort Integral Projection Model (cIPM). The cIPM was used to project S. aurata growth, year to year, under different temperature scenarios. Our results determined current increasing summer temperatures to have a negative effect on S. aurata annual growth in the Gulf of Lions. They suggest that global warming already has and will further have a significant impact on S. aurata size-at-age, with important implications for age-structured stock assessments and reference points used in fisheries.

  10. Variations and Trends in Global and Regional Precipitation Based on the 22-year GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project) and Three-year TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) Data Sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adler, R.; Curtis, S.; Huffman, G.; Bolvin, D.; Nelkin, E.

    2001-05-01

    This paper gives an overview of the analysis of global precipitation over the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to study global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in global precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. The global trend analysis must be interpreted carefully, however, because the inhomogeneity of the data set makes detecting a small signal very difficult, especially over this relatively short period. The relation of global (and tropical) total precipitation and ENSO events is quantified with no significant signal when land and ocean are combined. Identifying regional trends in precipitation may be more practical. From 1979 to 2000 the tropics have pattern of regional rainfall trends that has an ENSO-like pattern with features of both the El Nino and La Nina. This feature is related to a possible trend in the frequency of ENSO events (either El Nino or La Nina) over the past 20 years. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The El Nino and La Nina mean anomalies are near mirror images of each other and when combined produce an ENSO signal with significant spatial continuity over large distances. A number of the features are shown to extend into high latitudes. Positive anomalies extend in the Southern Hemisphere (S.H.) from the Pacific southeastward across Chile and Argentina into the south Atlantic Ocean. In the Northern Hemisphere (N.H.) the counterpart feature extends across the southern U.S. and Atlantic Ocean into Europe

  11. Recent trends of severe head injury in Japan Neurotrauma Data Bank with special reference to road traffic accident. Comparison of clinical features and outcome between Project 1998 and Project 2004

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ono, Junichi; Sakamoto, Tetsuya; Kawamata, Tatsuro; Tokutomi, Takashi; Ogawa, Takeki; Shigemori, Minoru; Yamaura, Akira; Nakamura, Norio

    2009-01-01

    This study was conducted to clarify the recent trends of severe head injury in the Japan Neurotrauma Data Bank (JNTDB) with special reference to traffic accident. In the JNTDB, the number of severely head-injured patients (Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score of 8 or less) were 832 in Project 1998 and 797 in Project 2004. Those were divided into 2 groups: traffic accident (TA) group, and non-TA (nTA) group. In addition, the former group was classified into 4 groups: 4 wheel vehicle (4WV) group, motorcycle (MC) group, bicycle (BC) group, and pedestrian (P) group. Analyzed here were cause of injury, age distribution, incidence of alcohol intake, means of transportation, clinical severity (GCS and injury severity score), initial CT findings (Traumatic Coma Data Bank), and outcome at discharge (Glasgow Outcome Scale). In the Project 2004; Traffic accident was less common as the cause of injury. The proportion of younger patients was lower in the TA group, especially in the 4WV and MC groups. Incidence of alcohol intake was lower in the TA group, particularly in the MC groups. Patient transfer by helicopter was more common in both the TA and nTA groups. The proportion of GCS of 3 to 5 was lower in the TA group, especially in the MC group. In the initial CT findings, type 3 of diffuse injury and evacuated mass were less frequent in both groups, and in the 4WV, BC, and P groups. Outcome at discharge: Mortality rate was lower in both groups, and in the 4WV, MC and P groups, but the percentage of good outcomes was unchanged. These results indicated the recent trends of severely head-injured patients who were injured by traffic accident. But there were some problems, such as study protocol and meaningless results, so that further verification is indispensable in the JNTDB study. (author)

  12. Causes of global mean surface temperature slowdowns, trends and variations from months to a century, 1891-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Folland, C. K.; Boucher, O.; Colman, A.; Parker, D. E.

    2017-12-01

    The recent slowdown in the warming of global mean surface temperature (GST) has highlighted the influences of natural variability. This talk discusses reconstructions of the variations of GST down to the monthly time scale since 1891 using monthly forcing data. We show that most of the variations in annual, and to some extent sub-annual, GST since 1891 can be reproduced skillfully from known forcing factors external and internal to the climate system. This includes the slowdown in warming over about 1998-2013 where reconstruction skill is particularly high down to the multi-monthly time scale. The relative contributions of the several key forcing factors to GST continually vary, but most of the net warming since 1891 is reconstructed to be attributable to the net forcing due to increasing greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols. Separate analyses are carried out for three periods of GST slowdown:- 1896-1910, 1941-1976, together with 1998-2013 and some of its sub periods. We also study two periods where strong warming occurred, 1911-1940 and 1977-1997. Comparisons are made with the skill of average GST provided by 40 CMIP5 models. In the recent 1998-2013 slowdown, TSI forcing appears to have caused significant cooling, particularly over 2001-2010. This is additional to well documented cooling effects of an increased frequency of La Nina events, a negative Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and some increases in volcanic forcing. Although there are short-term features of the GST curve since 1891 that cannot be fully explained, the most serious disagreements between the reconstructions and observations occur in the Second World War, especially in 1944-1945. Here observed near worldwide SSTs may be biased significantly too warm. Despite this, our generally high reconstruction skill is consistent with a good understanding of the multiple causes of observed GST variations and the general veracity of the GST record since 1891.

  13. Land Use Effects on Net Greenhouse Gas Fluxes in the US Great Plains: Historical Trends and Model Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Grosso, S. J.; Parton, W. J.; Ojima, D. S.; Mosier, A. R.; Mosier, A. R.; Paustian, K.; Peterson, G. A.

    2001-12-01

    We present maps showing regional patterns of land use change and soil C levels in the US Great Plains during the 20th century and time series of net greenhouse gas fluxes associated with different land uses. Net greenhouse gas fluxes were calculated by accounting for soil CO2 fluxes, the CO2 equivalents of N2O emissions and CH4 uptake, and the CO2 costs of N fertilizer production. Both historical and modern agriculture in this region have been net sources of greenhouse gases. The primary reason for this, prior to 1950, is that agriculture mined soil C and resulted in net CO2 emissions. When chemical N fertilizer became widely used in the 1950's agricultural soils began to sequester CO2-C but these soils were still net greenhouse gas sources if the effects of increased N2O emissions and decreased CH4 uptake are included. The sensitivity of net greenhouse gas fluxes to conventional and alternative land uses was explored using the DAYCENT ecosystem model. Model projections suggest that conversion to no-till, reduction of the fallow period, and use of nitrification inhibitors can significantly decrease net greenhouse gas emissions in dryland and irrigated systems, while maintaining or increasing crop yields.

  14. Trends in Sea Ice Cover, Sea Surface Temperature, and Chlorophyll Biomass Across a Marine Distributed Biological Observatory in the Pacific Arctic Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frey, K. E.; Grebmeier, J. M.; Cooper, L. W.; Wood, C.; Panday, P. K.

    2011-12-01

    The northern Bering and Chukchi Seas in the Pacific Arctic Region (PAR) are among the most productive marine ecosystems in the world and act as important carbon sinks, particularly during May and June when seasonal sea ice-associated phytoplankton blooms occur throughout the region. Recent dramatic shifts in seasonal sea ice cover across the PAR should have profound consequences for this seasonal phytoplankton production as well as the intimately linked higher trophic levels. In order to investigate ecosystem responses to these observed recent shifts in sea ice cover, the development of a prototype Distributed Biological Observatory (DBO) is now underway in the PAR. The DBO is being developed as an internationally-coordinated change detection array that allows for consistent sampling and monitoring at five spatially explicit biologically productive locations across a latitudinal gradient: (1) DBO-SLP (south of St. Lawrence Island (SLI)), (2) DBO-NBS (north of SLI), (3) DBO-SCS (southern Chukchi Sea), (4) DBO-CCS (central Chukchi Sea), and (5) DBO-BCA (Barrow Canyon Arc). Standardized measurements at many of the DBO sites were made by multiple research cruises during the 2010 and 2011 pilot years, and will be expanded with the development of the DBO in coming years. In order to provide longer-term context for the changes occurring across the PAR, we utilize multi-sensor satellite data to investigate recent trends in sea ice cover, chlorophyll biomass, and sea surface temperatures for each of the five DBO sites, as well as a sixth long-term observational site in the Bering Strait. Satellite observations show that over the past three decades, trends in sea ice cover in the PAR have been heterogeneous, with significant declines in the Chukchi Sea, slight declines in the Bering Strait region, but increases in the northern Bering Sea south of SLI. Declines in the persistence of seasonal sea ice cover in the Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait region are due to both earlier sea

  15. The ARCHER project (Advanced High-Temperature Reactors for Cogeneration of Heat and Electricity R&D)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knol, S., E-mail: knol@nrg.eu [Nuclear Research and consultancy Group (NRG), PO Box 25, NL-1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands); Fütterer, M.A. [Joint Research Centre, Institute for Energy, Petten (Netherlands); Roelofs, F. [Nuclear Research and consultancy Group (NRG), PO Box 25, NL-1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands); Kohtz, N. [TÜV Rheinland, Köln (Germany); Laurie, M. [Joint Research Centre, Institute for Transuranium elements, Karlsruhe (Germany); Buckthorpe, D. [UMAN, University of Manchester, Manchester (United Kingdom); Scheuermann, W. [IKE, Stuttgart University, Stuttgart (Germany)

    2016-09-15

    The European HTR R&D project ARCHER (Advanced High-Temperature Reactors for Cogeneration of Heat and Electricity R&D) builds on a solid HTR technology foundation in Europe, established through former national UK and German HTR programs and in European framework programs. ARCHER runs from 2011 to 2015 and targets selected HTR R&D subjects that would specifically support demonstration, with a focus on experimental effort. In line with the R&D and deployment strategy of the European Sustainable Nuclear Energy Technology Platform (SNETP) ARCHER contributes to maintaining, strengthening and expanding the HTR knowledge base in Europe to lay the foundations for demonstration of nuclear cogeneration with HTR systems. The project consortium encompasses conventional and nuclear industry, utilities, Technical Support Organizations, R&D organizations and academia. ARCHER shares results with international partners in the Generation IV International Forum and collaborates directly with related projects in the US, China, Japan, the Republic of Korea and South Africa. The ARCHER project has finished, and the paper comprises an overview of the achievements of the project.

  16. Status and trends of nuclear technologies - Report of the International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO). Additional information (Companion CD-ROM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-09-01

    The International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO) was launched in the year 2000, based on a resolution by the IAEA General Conference (GC(44)/RES/21). INPRO intends to help to ensure that nuclear energy is available in the 21st century in a sustainable manner, and seeks to bring together all interested Member States, both technology holders and technology users, to consider, jointly, actions to achieve desired innovations. INPRO is taking care of the specific needs of developing countries. This IAEA publication is part of Phase 1 of INPRO. It intends to provide an overview on history, present situation and future perspectives of nuclear fuel cycle technologies. While this overview focuses on technical issues, nevertheless, the aspects of economics, environment, and safety and proliferation resistance are important background issues for this study. After a brief description about the INPRO project and an evaluation of existing and future reactor designs the publication covers nuclear fuel cycle issues in detail. It is expected that this documentation will provide IAEA Member States and their nuclear engineers and designers, as well as policy makers with useful information on status and trends of future nuclear fuel cycle technologies. Due to the size of the full report it was decided to attach a CD-ROM in the back of the summary report

  17. Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Gasparrini, A.; Guo, Y.; Sera, F.; Vicedo-Cabrera, A.M.; Huber, V.; Tong, S.; Coelho, M. S. Z. S.; Saldiva, P. H. N.; Lavigne, E.; Correa, P.M.; Ortega, N. V.; Kan, H.; Osorio, S.; Kyselý, Jan; Urban, Aleš; Jaakkola, J.J.K.; Ryti, N.R.I.; Pascal, M.; Goodman, P.G.; Zeka, A.; Michelozzi, P.; Scortichini, M.; Hashizume, M.; Honda, Y.; Hurtado-Diaz, M.; Cruz, J.C.; Seposo, X.; Kim, H.; Tobias, A.; Iñiguez, C.; Forsberg, B.; Åström, D.O.; Ragettli, M.S.; Guo, Y.L.; Wu, Ch.; Zanobetti, A.; Schwartz, J.; Bell, M.L.; Dang, T.N.; Van, D.D.; Heaviside, C.; Vardoulakis, S.; Hajat, S.; Haines, A.; Armstrong, B.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 1, č. 9 (2017), e360-e367 ISSN 2542-5196 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA16-22000S Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : climate change scenarios * mortality Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Climatic research https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542519617301560#!

  18. Projectables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Troels A.; Merritt, Timothy R.

    2017-01-01

    CNC cutting machines have become essential tools for designers and architects enabling rapid prototyping, model-building and production of high quality components. Designers often cut from new materials, discarding the irregularly shaped remains. We introduce ProjecTables, a visual augmented...... reality system for interactive packing of model parts onto sheet materials. ProjecTables enables designers to (re)use scrap materials for CNC cutting that would have been previously thrown away, at the same time supporting aesthetic choices related to wood grain, avoiding surface blemishes, and other...... relevant material properties. We conducted evaluations of ProjecTables with design students from Aarhus School of Architecture, demonstrating that participants could quickly and easily place and orient model parts reducing material waste. Contextual interviews and ideation sessions led to a deeper...

  19. High temperature graphite irradiation creep experiment in the Dragon Reactor. Dragon Project report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manzel, R.; Everett, M. R.; Graham, L. W.

    1971-05-15

    The irradiation induced creep of pressed Gilsocarbon graphite under constant tensile stress has been investigated in an experiment carried out in FE 317 of the OECD High Temperature Gass Cooled Reactor ''Dragon'' at Winfrith (England). The experiment covered a temperature range of 850 dec C to 1240 deg C and reached a maximum fast neutron dose of 1.19 x 1021 n cm-2 NDE (Nickel Dose DIDO Equivalent). Irradiation induced dimensional changes of a string of unrestrained graphite specimens are compared with the dimensional changes of three strings of restrained graphite specimens stressed to 40%, 58%, and 70% of the initial ultimate tensile strength of pressed Gilsocarbon graphite. Total creep strains ranging from 0.18% to 1.25% have been measured and a linear dependence of creep strain on applied stress was observed. Mechanical property measurements carried out before and after irradiation demonstrate that Gilsocarbon graphite can accommodate significant creep strains without failure or structural deterioration. Total creep strains are in excellent agreement with other data, however the results indicate a relatively large temperature dependent primary creep component which at 1200 deg C approaches a value which is three times larger than the normally assumed initial elastic strain. Secondary creep constants derived from the experiment show a temperature dependence and are in fair agreement with data reported elsewhere. A possible determination of the results is given.

  20. A methodological critique on using temperature-conditioned resampling for climate projections as in the paper of Gerstengarbe et al. (2013) winter storm- and summer thunderstorm-related loss events in Theoretical and Applied Climatology (TAC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wechsung, Frank; Wechsung, Maximilian

    2016-11-01

    The STatistical Analogue Resampling Scheme (STARS) statistical approach was recently used to project changes of climate variables in Germany corresponding to a supposed degree of warming. We show by theoretical and empirical analysis that STARS simply transforms interannual gradients between warmer and cooler seasons into climate trends. According to STARS projections, summers in Germany will inevitably become dryer and winters wetter under global warming. Due to the dominance of negative interannual correlations between precipitation and temperature during the year, STARS has a tendency to generate a net annual decrease in precipitation under mean German conditions. Furthermore, according to STARS, the annual level of global radiation would increase in Germany. STARS can be still used, e.g., for generating scenarios in vulnerability and uncertainty studies. However, it is not suitable as a climate downscaling tool to access risks following from changing climate for a finer than general circulation model (GCM) spatial scale.

  1. Climate change impacts on projections of excess mortality at 2030 using spatially varying ozone-temperature risk surfaces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Ander; Reich, Brian J; Nolte, Christopher G; Spero, Tanya L; Hubbell, Bryan; Rappold, Ana G

    2017-01-01

    We project the change in ozone-related mortality burden attributable to changes in climate between a historical (1995-2005) and near-future (2025-2035) time period while incorporating a non-linear and synergistic effect of ozone and temperature on mortality. We simulate air quality from climate projections varying only biogenic emissions and holding anthropogenic emissions constant, thus attributing changes in ozone only to changes in climate and independent of changes in air pollutant emissions. We estimate non-linear, spatially varying, ozone-temperature risk surfaces for 94 US urban areas using observed data. Using the risk surfaces and climate projections we estimate daily mortality attributable to ozone exceeding 40 p.p.b. (moderate level) and 75 p.p.b. (US ozone NAAQS) for each time period. The average increases in city-specific median April-October ozone and temperature between time periods are 1.02 p.p.b. and 1.94 °F; however, the results varied by region. Increases in ozone because of climate change result in an increase in ozone mortality burden. Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 40 p.p.b. increases by 7.7% (1.6-14.2%). Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 75 p.p.b. increases by 14.2% (1.6 28.9%). The absolute increase in excess ozone mortality is larger for changes in moderate ozone levels, reflecting the larger number of days with moderate ozone levels.

  2. Uncertainty in climate-carbon-cycle projections associated with the sensitivity of soil respiration to temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, Chris D.; Cox, Peter; Huntingford, Chris

    2003-01-01

    Carbon-cycle feedbacks have been shown to be very important in predicting climate change over the next century, with a potentially large positive feedback coming from the release of carbon from soils as global temperatures increase. The magnitude of this feedback and whether or not it drives the terrestrial carbon cycle to become a net source of carbon dioxide during the next century depends particularly on the response of soil respiration to temperature. Observed global atmospheric CO 2 concentration, and its response to naturally occurring climate anomalies, is used to constrain the behaviour of soil respiration in our coupled climate-carbon-cycle GCM. This constraint is used to quantify some of the uncertainties in predictions of future CO 2 levels. The uncertainty is large, emphasizing the importance of carbon-cycle research with respect to future climate change predictions

  3. Low-Temperature Projects of the Department of Energy's Geothermal Technologies Program: Evaluation and Lessons Learned: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, Tom; Snyder, Neil; Gosnold, Will

    2016-12-01

    This paper discusses opportunities and challenges related to the technical and economic feasibility of developing power generation from geothermal resources at temperatures of 150 degrees C and lower. Insights from projects funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Geothermal Technologies Office inform these discussions and provide the basis for some lessons learned to help guide decisions by DOE and the industry in further developing this resource. The technical basis for low-temperature geothermal energy is well established and the systems can be economic today in certain situations. However, these applications are far from a 'plug and play' product; successful development today requires a good knowledge of geothermal system design and operation.

  4. Low-Temperature Projects of the Department of Energy's Geothermal Technologies Program: Evaluation and Lessons Learned

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, Tom; Snyder, Neil; Gosnold, Will

    2016-10-23

    This paper discusses opportunities and challenges related to the technical and economic feasibility of developing power generation from geothermal resources at temperatures of 150 degrees C and lower. Insights from projects funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Geothermal Technologies Office inform these discussions and provide the basis for some lessons learned to help guide decisions by DOE and the industry in further developing this resource. The technical basis for low-temperature geothermal energy is well established and the systems can be economic today in certain situations. However, these applications are far from a 'plug and play' product; successful development today requires a good knowledge of geothermal system design and operation.

  5. Results of airblast and temperature measurements, Project Essex I, Phase 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vortman, L.J.; Dickinson, J.R.; Fastle, D.L.

    1977-01-01

    Airblast and flare temperature measurements were made on a 42 GJ detonation buried 5.85 m deep with a 165 mm dia open hole to the surface. Identification of a late-time pulse, attributed to afterburning of detonation products, led to a re-examination of data from earlier detonations of the Essex I series. The late-time pulse appears only for certain explosives and combinations of emplacement, stemming, and medium. Measurements made at 1 km and beyond permitted continued development of systematic suppression of airblast as a function of charge burial and stemming. Measurements of gas pressure of the flare emerging from the open hole indicated peak overpressures slightly greater than 690 bars. Measurement of flare temperatures of incandescent gas emerging from the open hole proved the feasibility of using photo-optical and photodiode techniques and demonstrated the ability to process data from both. Flare temperatures far less than predicted on the basis of an earlier shot prevented a direct comparison of the two techniques

  6. The LXCat project: Electron scattering cross sections and swarm parameters for low temperature plasma modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pancheshnyi, S.; Biagi, S.; Bordage, M.C.; Hagelaar, G.J.M.; Morgan, W.L.; Phelps, A.V.; Pitchford, L.C.

    2012-01-01

    Graphical abstract: LXCat is an open-access website containing data needed for low temperature plasma modeling as well as on-line tools useful for their manipulation. Highlights: ► LXCat: an open-access website with data for low temperature plasma modeling. ► Contains compilations of electron scattering cross sections and transport data. ► Data from different contributors for many neutral, ground-state species. ► On-line tools for browsing, plotting, up/downloading data. ► On-line Boltzmann solver for calculating electron swarm parameters. - Abstract: LXCat is a dynamic, open-access, website for collecting, displaying, and downloading ELECtron SCATtering cross sections and swarm parameters (mobility, diffusion coefficient, reaction rates, etc.) required for modeling low temperature, non-equilibrium plasmas. Contributors set up individual databases, and the available databases, indicated by the contributor’s chosen title, include mainly complete sets of electron-neutral scattering cross sections, although the option for introducing partial sets of cross sections exists. A database for measured swarm parameters is also part of LXCat, and this is a growing activity. On-line tools include options for browsing, plotting, and downloading cross section data. The electron energy distribution functions (edfs) in low temperature plasmas are in general non-Maxwellian, and LXCat provides an option for execution of an on-line Boltzmann equation solver to calculate the edf in homogeneous electric fields. Thus, the user can obtain electron transport and rate coefficients (averages over the edfs) in pure gases or gas mixtures over a range of values of the reduced electric fields strength, E/N, the ratio of the electric field strength to the neutral density, using cross sections from the available databases. New contributors are welcome and anyone wishing to create a database and upload data can request a username and password. LXCat is part of a larger, community

  7. Long-term trends in U.S. gas transportation: 1992 edition of the GRI baseline projection of U.S. energy supply and demand to 2010, June 1992. Gas Research Insights

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lihn, M.L.; Woods, T.J.

    1992-06-01

    The paper summarizes the trends in lower-48 gas transportation in the 1992 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand to 2010, which has been adopted as a major input to the planning cycle leading to the development of the Gas Research Institute (GRI) 1993 research and development program. The 1992 projection presents an optimistic outlook for the U.S. gas industry in which increased gas supply can be obtained at competitive prices

  8. Impacts of elevated carbon dioxide and temperature on a boreal forest ecosystem (CLIMEX project)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Breemen, N. van; Jenkins, A.; Wright, R.F.

    1998-01-01

    To evaluate the effects of climate change on boreal forest ecosystems, both atmospheric CO2 (to 560 ppmv) and air temperature (by 3 degrees-5 degrees C above ambient) were increased at a forested headwater catchment in southern Norway. The entire catchment (860 m(2)) is enclosed within...... and the growing season has been prolonged relative to the control area. This has helped to sustain an increase in plant growth relative to the control and has also promoted increased N export in stream water. Photosynthetic capacity and carbon-nitrogen ratio of new leaves of most plant species did not change...

  9. Solar Total Energy Project (STEP) Performance Analysis of High Temperature Energy Storage Subsystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, D. M.

    1984-01-01

    The 1982 milestones and lessons learned; performance in 1983; a typical day's operation; collector field performance and thermal losses; and formal testing are highlighted. An initial test that involves characterizing the high temperature storage (hts) subsystem is emphasized. The primary element is on 11,000 gallon storage tank that provides energy to the steam generator during transient solar conditions or extends operating time. Overnight, thermal losses were analyzed. The length of time the system is operated at various levels of cogeneration using stored energy is reviewed.

  10. Research and development project for flywheel energy storage system using high-temperature superconducting magnetic bearing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shinagawa, Jiro; Ishikawa, Fumihiko

    1996-01-01

    Recent progress in the research and development of an yttrium-based oxide high-temperature superconductor has enabled the production of a large-diameter bulk with a strong flux-pinning force. A combination of this superconductor and a permanent magnet makes it feasible to fabricate a non-contact, non-controlled superconducting magnetic bearing with a very small rotational loss. Use of the superconducting magnetic bearing for a flywheel energy storage system may pave the way to the development of a new energy storage system that has great energy storage efficiency. >From relevant data measured with a miniature model of the high-temperature superconducting magnetic bearing, a conceptual design of an 8 MWh flywheel energy storage system was developed, using the new bearing which proved to be potentially capable of achieving a high energy storage efficiency of 84%. A 100 Wh-class experimental system was install that attained a high revolution rate of 17.000 rpm. (author)

  11. Recent trends on sterile insect technique and area-wide integrated pest management. Economic feasibility, control projects, farmer organization and Bactrocera dorsalis complex control study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-03-01

    We have invited professional papers from over the world, including Okinawa, for compilation of recent trends on Sterile Insect Techniques and Area-Wide Integrated Pest Management to further pursue environment friendly pest insects control measures in agricultural production in the Asia-Pacific region. Pest insects such as the tephritid fruit flies have long been and are still today causing serious damage to agricultural products in the Asia-Pacific region and farmers in the region apply such insecticides that are no longer allowed or being subjected to strict usage control in Japan. This, in return, may endanger the health of the very farmers, food safety and the ecosystem itself. The purpose of this report is, therefore, to clarify keys for technology transfer of so called SIT/AWIPM to potential recipients engaged in agricultural production in the region. This report focused on several topics, which make up important parts for the effective Sterile Insect Technique and Area-Wide Integrated Pest Management: economic feasibility; pest insects control projects; farmers' education; research progress in Bactrocera dorsalis complex issues specific to the Asia-Pacific region. The 12 of the papers are indexed individually. (J.P.N.)

  12. Price trends and project viability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olsen, W.H.

    1999-01-01

    The paper discusses some of the remarkable changes that have occurred in the oil and gas industry over about the past 25 years. In the past ten years alone, technology and politics have brought new ways of working together and the recovery of resources once thought of as impossible. Cooperation appears to be a key word. The paper was presented under the sub-headings of the environment, global energy outlook, technological drivers and the challenge ahead. The current low price of oil will inevitably slow down exploration and field development but the author remains optimistic despite the tough challenges. The paper contains many diagrams relating to production, costs, efficiency, exploration, reserves, price forecasts and exploration technology

  13. SPECIFICATIONS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE LATTICE TEST REACTOR BUILDING 318 PROJECT CAH-100

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vitro Engineering Company

    1964-07-15

    This is the specifications for the High Temperature Lattice Test Reactor Building 318 and it is divided into the following 21 divisions or chapters: (1) Excavating, Backfill & Grading; (2) Reinforced Concrete; (3) Masonry; (4) Structural Steel & Miscellaneous Metal Items, Contents - Division V; (5) Plumbing, Process & Service Piping; (6) Welding; (7) Insulated Metal Siding; (8) Roof Decks & Roofing; (9) Plaster Partitions & Ceiling; (10) Standard Doors, Windows & Hardware; (11) Shielding Doors; (12) Sprinkler System & Fire Extinguishers, Contents - Division XIII; (13) Heating, Ventilating & Air Conditioning; (14) Painting, Protective Coating & Floor Covering, Contents - Division XV; (15) Electrical; (16) Communications & Alarm Systems; (17) Special Equipment & Furnishings; (18) Overhead Bridge Crane; (19) Prefabricated Steel Building; (20) Paved Drive; and (21) Landscaping & Irrigation Sprinklers.

  14. Trends of Sustainable Residential Architecture

    OpenAIRE

    Narvydas, A

    2014-01-01

    The article is based on Master’s research conducted during Scottish Housing Expo 2010. The aim of the research was to determine the prevailing trends in sustainable residential architecture. Each trend can be described by features detected during visual and technical observation of project data. Based on that architects may predict possible problems related to a specific trend.

  15. Evaluation of waste temperatures in AWF tanks for bypass mode operation of the 702-AZ ventilation system (Project W-030)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sathyanarayana, K.

    1997-01-01

    This report describes the results of thermal hydraulic analysis performed to provide data in support of Project W-030 to startup new 702-AZ Primary Ventilation System. During the startup of W-030 system, the ventilation system will be operating in bypass mode. In bypass made of operation, the system is capable of supplying 1000 cfm total flow for all four AWF doubleshell tanks. The design of the W-030 system is based on the assumption that both the recirculation loop of the primary ventilation system and the secondary ventilation which provides cooling would be operating. However, during the startup neither the recirculation system nor the secondary ventilation system will be operating. A minimum flow of 100 cfm is required to prevent any flammable gas associated risk. The remaining 600 cfm flow can be divided among the four tanks as necessary to keep the peak sludge temperatures below the operating temperature limit. For the purpose of determining the minimum flow required for cooling each tank, the thermal hydraulic analysis is performed to predict the peak sludge temperatures in AY/AZ tanks under different ventilation flows. The heat load for AZ farm tanks is taken from characterization reports and for the AY farm tanks, the heat load was estimated by thermal analysis using the measured waste temperatures and the waste liquid evaporation rates. The tank 241-AZ-101 and the tank 241-AZ-102 have heat loads of 241,600 and 199,500 Btu/hr respectively. The tank 241-AY-101 and tank 241-AY-102 have heat loads of 41,000 and 33,000 Btu/hr respectively. Using the ambient meteorological conditions of temperature and relative humidity for the air and tank, some soil surface and the sludge levels reported in recent documents, the peak sludge and supernatant temperatures were predicted for various primary ventilation flows ranging from 100 to 400 cfm for AZ tanks and 100 and 150 cfm for AY tanks. The results of these thermal hydraulic analyses are presented. Based on the

  16. Long-term trends in U.S. gas supply and prices: 1991 edition of the GRI baseline projection of U.S. energy supply and demand to 2010, April 1991. Gas research insights

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woods, T.J.

    1991-04-01

    The report summarizes the gas supply and price outlook in the 1991 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand. Projected U.S. gas production, gas imports, and other sources of gas supply are discussed along with the sensitivity of the outlook to changes in price expectations. The critical uncertainties and issues affecting the gas supply and price outlook are discussed. Appendixes include a comparison of the 1991 and the 1989 projections of gas supply and price trends; and a description of the GRI Hydrocarbon Model

  17. Integration of Building Information Modeling and Critical Path Method Schedules to Simulate the Impact of Temperature and Humidity at the Project Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongwei Shan

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Steel construction activities are often undertaken in an environment with limited climate control. Both hot and cold temperatures can physically and psychologically affect construction workers, thus decreasing their productivity. Temperature and humidity are two factors that constantly exert forces on workers and influence their performance and efficiency. Previous studies have established a relationship between labor productivity and temperature and humidity. This research is built on the existing body of knowledge and develops a framework of integrating building information modeling (BIM with a lower level critical path method (CPM schedule to simulate the overall impact of temperature and humidity on a healthcare facility’s structural steel installation project in terms of total man hours required to build the project. This research effort utilized historical weather data of four cities across the U.S., with each city having workable seasons year-round and conducted a baseline assessment to test if various project starting dates and locations could significantly impact the project’s schedule performance. It was found that both varied project start dates and locations can significantly contribute to the difference in the man hours required to build the model project and that the project start date and location can have an interaction effect. This study contributes to the overall body of knowledge by providing a framework that can help practitioners better understand the overall impact of a productivity influencing factor at a project level, in order to facilitate better decision making.

  18. Assessment of the Appalachian Basin Geothermal Field: Combining Risk Factors to Inform Development of Low Temperature Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, J. D.; Whealton, C.; Camp, E. R.; Horowitz, F.; Frone, Z. S.; Jordan, T. E.; Stedinger, J. R.

    2015-12-01

    Exploration methods for deep geothermal energy projects must primarily consider whether or not a location has favorable thermal resources. Even where the thermal field is favorable, other factors may impede project development and success. A combined analysis of these factors and their uncertainty is a strategy for moving geothermal energy proposals forward from the exploration phase at the scale of a basin to the scale of a project, and further to design of geothermal systems. For a Department of Energy Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis we assessed quality metrics, which we call risk factors, in the Appalachian Basin of New York, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. These included 1) thermal field variability, 2) productivity of natural reservoirs from which to extract heat, 3) potential for induced seismicity, and 4) presence of thermal utilization centers. The thermal field was determined using a 1D heat flow model for 13,400 bottomhole temperatures (BHT) from oil and gas wells. Steps included the development of i) a set of corrections to BHT data and ii) depth models of conductivity stratigraphy at each borehole based on generalized stratigraphy that was verified for a select set of wells. Wells are control points in a spatial statistical analysis that resulted in maps of the predicted mean thermal field properties and of the standard error of the predicted mean. Seismic risk was analyzed by comparing earthquakes and stress orientations in the basin to gravity and magnetic potential field edges at depth. Major edges in the potential fields served as interpolation boundaries for the thermal maps (Figure 1). Natural reservoirs were identified from published studies, and productivity was determined based on the expected permeability and dimensions of each reservoir. Visualizing the natural reservoirs and population centers on a map of the thermal field communicates options for viable pilot sites and project designs (Figure 1). Furthermore, combining the four risk

  19. Pilot project of biogas production from pig manure and urine mixture at ambient temperature in Ventanilla (Lima, Peru)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferrer, I.; Gamiz, M.; Almeida, M.; Ruiz, A.

    2009-01-01

    Parque Porcino de Ventanilla has an extension of 840 ha with 2200 farmers dedicated to pig production. There is a lack of services in the area (i.e., water supply, electricity, or waste collection). Anaerobic treatment of pig manure would replace current dumping and incineration, reducing environmental pollution and hazards to public health, as well as providing an organic fertilizer and biogas. The objective of the present work was to study the viability of ambient temperature anaerobic digestion of pig manure diluted in urine, by means of on-site pilot scale reactors. The final goal was to establish design parameters for anaerobic digesters to be implemented; since it was part of a project to improve life conditions for the farmers through the incorporation of better management techniques. Experiments were carried out in a low-cost pilot plant, which consists of three anaerobic digesters (225 L total volume), without heating or agitation, placed in a greenhouse. The start-up of the digestion process was performed with a mixture of temperature adapted pig manure-sludge and fresh rumen, and showed a good performance regardless of the dilution of pig manure with water or urine, which is a key parameter due to the scarcity of water in the area under study

  20. Pilot project of biogas production from pig manure and urine mixture at ambient temperature in Ventanilla (Lima, Peru).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrer, I; Gamiz, M; Almeida, M; Ruiz, A

    2009-01-01

    Parque Porcino de Ventanilla has an extension of 840ha with 2200 farmers dedicated to pig production. There is a lack of services in the area (i.e., water supply, electricity, or waste collection). Anaerobic treatment of pig manure would replace current dumping and incineration, reducing environmental pollution and hazards to public health, as well as providing an organic fertilizer and biogas. The objective of the present work was to study the viability of ambient temperature anaerobic digestion of pig manure diluted in urine, by means of on-site pilot scale reactors. The final goal was to establish design parameters for anaerobic digesters to be implemented; since it was part of a project to improve life conditions for the farmers through the incorporation of better management techniques. Experiments were carried out in a low-cost pilot plant, which consists of three anaerobic digesters (225L total volume), without heating or agitation, placed in a greenhouse. The start-up of the digestion process was performed with a mixture of temperature adapted pig manure-sludge and fresh rumen, and showed a good performance regardless of the dilution of pig manure with water or urine, which is a key parameter due to the scarcity of water in the area under study.

  1. The design, safety and project development status of the modular high temperature gas-cooled reactor in the United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mears, L.D.; Dean, R.A.

    1987-01-01

    The cooperative government and industry Modular High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (MHTGR) Program in the United States has advanced a 350 MW(t) plant design through the conceptual development stage. The system incorporates an annular core of prismatic fuel elements within a steel pressure vessel connected, in a side-by-side arrangement, by a concentric duct to a second steel vessel containing a steam generator and helium coolant circulator. The reference plant design consists of four reactor modules installed in separate below-grade silos, providing steam to two conventional turbine generators. The nominal net plant output is 540 MW(e). The small reactor system takes unique advantage of the high temperature capability of the refractory coated fuel and the large thermal inertia of the graphite moderator to provide a design capable of withstanding a complete loss of active core cooling without causing excessive core heatup and significant release of fission products from the fuel. Present program activities are concentrated on interactions with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission aimed at obtaining a Licensability Statement. A project initiative to build a prototype plant which would demonstrate the MHTGR-unique licensing process, plant performance, costs and schedule plus establish an industrial infrastructure to proceed with follow-on commercial MHTGR plants by the turn of the century, is being undertaken by the utility/vendor participants (author)

  2. Long-term projections of temperature-related mortality risks for ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, and acute ischemic heart disease under changing climate in Beijing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Tiantian; Horton, Radley M; Bader, Daniel A; Liu, Fangchao; Sun, Qinghua; Kinney, Patrick L

    2018-03-01

    Changing climates have been causing variations in the number of global ischemic heart disease and stroke incidences, and will continue to affect disease occurrence in the future. To project temperature-related mortality for acute ischemic heart disease, and ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke with concomitant climate warming. We estimated the exposure-response relationship between daily cause-specific mortality and daily mean temperature in Beijing. We utilized outputs from 31 downscaled climate models and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. This strategy was used to estimate future net temperature along with heat- and cold-related deaths. The results for predicted temperature-related deaths were subsequently contrasted with the baseline period. In the 2080s, using the RCP8.5 and no population variation scenarios, the net total number of annual temperature-related deaths exhibited a median value of 637 (with a range across models of 434-874) for ischemic stroke; this is an increase of approximately 100% compared with the 1980s. The median number of projected annual temperature-related deaths was 660 (with a range across models of 580-745) for hemorrhagic stroke (virtually no change compared with the 1980s), and 1683 (with a range across models of 1351-2002) for acute ischemic heart disease (a slight increase of approximately 20% compared with the 1980s). In the 2080s, the monthly death projection for hemorrhagic stroke and acute ischemic heart disease showed that the largest absolute changes occurred in summer and winter while the largest absolute changes for ischemic stroke occurred in summer. We projected that the temperature-related mortality associated with ischemic stroke will increase dramatically due to climate warming. However, projected temperature-related mortality pertaining to acute ischemic heart disease and hemorrhagic stroke should remain relatively stable over time. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights

  3. National Status and Trends, Benthic Surveillance Project Aryl Hydrocarbon Hydrolase (AHH) Data, 1988-1992, National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — In order to determine the current status of and detect any long-term trends in the environmental quality of U.S. nearshore waters, NOAA initiated the National Status...

  4. National Status and Trends, Benthic Surveillance Project Fluorescent Aromatic Compounds (FAC) Data, 1984-1991, National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Status and Trends (NSandT) Benthic Surveillance Fluorescent Aromatic Compounds (FAC) file reports the trace concentrations of Fluorescent Aromatic...

  5. Empirical Methods for Detecting Regional Trends and Other Spatial Expressions in Antrim Shale Gas Productivity, with Implications for Improving Resource Projections Using Local Nonparametric Estimation Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.; Attanasi, E.D.

    2012-01-01

    The primary objectives of this research were to (1) investigate empirical methods for establishing regional trends in unconventional gas resources as exhibited by historical production data and (2) determine whether or not incorporating additional knowledge of a regional trend in a suite of previously established local nonparametric resource prediction algorithms influences assessment results. Three different trend detection methods were applied to publicly available production data (well EUR aggregated to 80-acre cells) from the Devonian Antrim Shale gas play in the Michigan Basin. This effort led to the identification of a southeast-northwest trend in cell EUR values across the play that, in a very general sense, conforms to the primary fracture and structural orientations of the province. However, including this trend in the resource prediction algorithms did not lead to improved results. Further analysis indicated the existence of clustering among cell EUR values that likely dampens the contribution of the regional trend. The reason for the clustering, a somewhat unexpected result, is not completely understood, although the geological literature provides some possible explanations. With appropriate data, a better understanding of this clustering phenomenon may lead to important information about the factors and their interactions that control Antrim Shale gas production, which may, in turn, help establish a more general protocol for better estimating resources in this and other shale gas plays. ?? 2011 International Association for Mathematical Geology (outside the USA).

  6. Negative response of photosynthesis to natural and projected high seawater temperatures estimated by pulse amplitude modulation fluorometry in a temperate coral.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caroselli, Erik; Falini, Giuseppe; Goffredo, Stefano; Dubinsky, Zvy; Levy, Oren

    2015-01-01

    Balanophyllia europaea is a shallow water solitary zooxanthellate coral, endemic to the Mediterranean Sea. Extensive field studies across a latitudinal temperature gradient highlight detrimental effects of rising temperatures on its growth, demography, and skeletal characteristics, suggesting that depression of photosynthesis at high temperatures might cause these negative effects. Here we test this hypothesis by analyzing, by means of pulse amplitude modulation fluorometry, the photosynthetic efficiency of B. europaea specimens exposed in aquaria to the annual range of temperatures experienced in the field (13, 18, and 28°C), and two extreme temperatures expected for 2100 as a consequence of global warming (29 and 32°C). The indicators of photosynthetic performance analyzed (maximum and effective quantum yield) showed that maximum efficiency was reached at 20.0-21.6°C, slightly higher than the annual mean temperature in the field (18°C). Photosynthetic efficiency decreased from 20.0 to 13°C and even more strongly from 21.6 to 32°C. An unusual form of bleaching was observed, with a maximum zooxanthellae density at 18°C that strongly decreased from 18 to 32°C. Chlorophyll a concentration per zooxanthellae cell showed an opposite trend as it was minimal at 18°C and increased from 18 to 32°C. Since the areal chlorophyll concentration is the product of the zooxanthellae density and its cellular content, these trends resulted in a homogeneous chlorophyll concentration per coral surface across temperature treatments. This confirms that B. europaea photosynthesis is progressively depressed at temperatures >21.6°C, supporting previous hypotheses raised by the studies on growth and demography of this species. This study also confirms the threats posed to this species by the ongoing seawater warming.

  7. Negative response of photosynthesis to natural and projected high seawater temperatures estimated by pulse amplitude modulation fluorometry in a temperate coral

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erik eCaroselli

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Balanophyllia europaea is a shallow water solitary zooxanthellate coral, endemic to the Mediterranean Sea. Extensive field studies across a latitudinal temperature gradient highlight detrimental effects of rising temperatures on its growth, demography and skeletal characteristics, suggesting that depression of photosynthesis at high temperatures might cause these negative effects. Here we test this hypothesis by analyzing, by means of pulse amplitude modulation fluorometry, the photosynthetic efficiency of B. europaea specimens exposed in aquaria to the annual range of temperatures experienced in the field (13°C, 18°C, and 28°C, and two extreme temperatures expected for 2100 as a consequence of global warming (29°C and 32°C. The indicators of photosynthetic performance analyzed (maximum and effective quantum yield showed that maximum efficiency was reached at 20.0-21.6°C, slightly higher than the annual mean temperature in the field (18°C. Photosynthetic efficiency decreased from 20.0°C to 13°C and even more strongly from 21.6°C to 32°C. An unusual form of bleaching was observed, with a maximum zooxanthellae density at 18°C that strongly decreased from 18°C to 32°C. Chlorophyll a concentration per zooxanthellae cell showed an opposite trend as it was minimal at 18°C and increased from 18°C to 32°C. Since the areal chlorophyll concentration is the product of the zooxanthellae density and its cellular content, these trends resulted in a homogeneous chlorophyll concentration per coral surface across temperature treatments. This confirms that B. europaea photosynthesis is progressively depressed at temperatures >21.6°C, supporting previous hypotheses raised by the studies on growth and demography of this species. This study also confirms the threats posed to this species by the ongoing seawater warming.

  8. A European project on high temperature metrology for industrial applications; Un proyecto europeo en metrologia de altas temperaturas para aplicaciones industriales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Campo, D. del; Machin, G.

    2013-09-01

    The measurement of temperatures above 1000 degree centigrade is both difficult and yet vital for the success of a wide range of industrial processes; glass and ceramic manufacturing (1100 degree centigrade to 2000 degree centigrade) or refractory metals production (2500+ degree centigrade) are clear examples. Many of these industries require improved process efficiency/control, because of growing environmental concerns (emissions zero waste) and competition from outside the EU. One of the keys to making advances to these drivers is improving process control by improved high temperature measurement. In the frame of the European Metrology Research Program (EMRP), a project named High temperature metrology for industrial applications (HiTeMS) with the overall objective of developing a suite of methods and techniques for improving the measurement of high temperatures in industry has been running since September 2011. This paper gives an overview of the main objectives of the project and the technical activities that are being performed. (Author)

  9. Software Project Management Plan for the Integrated Systems Code (ISC) of New Production Reactor -- Modular High Temperature Gas Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, D.

    1990-11-01

    The United States Department of Energy (DOE) has selected the Modular High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (MHTGR) as one of the concepts for the New Production Reactor (NPR). DOE has also established several Technical Working Groups (TWG's) at the national laboratories to provide independent design confirmation of the NPR-MHTGR design. One of those TWG's is concerned with Thermal Fluid Flow (TFF) and analysis methods to provide independent design confirmation of the NPR-MHTGR. Analysis methods are also needed for operational safety evaluations, performance monitoring, sensitivity studies, and operator training. The TFF Program Plan includes, as one of its principal tasks, the development of a computer program (called the Integrated Systems Code, or ISC). This program will provide the needed long-term analysis capabilities for the MHTGR and its subsystems. This document presents the project management plan for development of the ISC. It includes the associated quality assurance tasks, and the schedule and resource requirements to complete these activities. The document conforms to the format of ANSI/IEEE Std. 1058.1-1987. 2 figs

  10. Asotin Creek instream habitat alteration projects : habitat evaluation, adult and juvenile habitat utilization and water temperature monitoring : 2001 progress report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bumgarner, Joseph D.

    2002-01-01

    projects to improve fish habitat. In 1998, the ACCD identified the need for a more detailed analysis of these instream projects to fully evaluate their effectiveness at improving fish habitat. Therefore, ACCD contracted with WDFW's Snake River Lab (SRL) to take pre- and post-construction measurements of the habitat (i.e., pools, LOD, width, depth) at each site, and to evaluate fish use within some of the altered sites. These results have been published annually as progress reports to the ACCD (Bumgarner et al. 1999, Wargo et al. 2000, and Bumgarner and Schuck 2001). The ACCD also contracted with the WDFW SRL to conduct other evaluation and monitoring in the stream such as: (1) conduct snorkel surveys at habitat alteration sites to document fish usage following construction, (2) deploy temperature monitors throughout the basin to document summer water temperatures, and (3) attempt to document adult fish utilization by documenting the number of steelhead redds associated with habitat altered areas. This report provides a summary of pre-construction measurements taken on three proposed Charley Creek habitat sites during 2001, two sites in main Asotin Creek, and one site in George Creek, a tributary that enters in the lower Asotin Creek basin. Further, it provides a comparison of measurements taken pre- and post-construction on three 1999 habitat sites taken two years later, but at similar river flows. It also presents data collected from snorkel surveys, redd counts, and temperature monitoring

  11. Technological trends in automobiles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horton, E J; Compton, W D

    1984-08-10

    Current technological trends in the automotive industry reflect many diverse disciplines. Electronics and microprocessors, new engine transmission concepts, composite and ceramic materials, and computer-aided design and manufacture will combine to make possible the creation of advanced automobiles offering outstanding quality, fuel economy, and performance. A projected "average" vehicle of the 1990's is described to illustrate the application of these new concepts.

  12. Assessment of projected temperature impacts from climate change on the U.S. electric power sector using the Integrated Planning Model®

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaglom, Wendy S.; McFarland, James R.; Colley, Michelle F.; Mack, Charlotte B.; Venkatesh, Boddu; Miller, Rawlings L.; Haydel, Juanita; Schultz, Peter A.; Perkins, Bill; Casola, Joseph H.; Martinich, Jeremy A.; Cross, Paul; Kolian, Michael J.; Kayin, Serpil

    2014-01-01

    This study analyzes the potential impacts of changes in temperature due to climate change on the U.S. power sector, measuring the energy, environmental, and economic impacts of power system changes due to temperature changes under two emissions trajectories—with and without emissions mitigation. It estimates the impact of temperature change on heating and cooling degree days, electricity demand, and generating unit output and efficiency. These effects are then integrated into a dispatch and capacity planning model to estimate impacts on investment decisions, emissions, system costs, and power prices for 32 U.S. regions. Without mitigation actions, total annual electricity production costs in 2050 are projected to increase 14% ($51 billion) because of greater cooling demand as compared to a control scenario without future temperature changes. For a scenario with global emissions mitigation, including a reduction in U.S. power sector emissions of 36% below 2005 levels in 2050, the increase in total annual electricity production costs is approximately the same as the increase in system costs to satisfy the increased demand associated with unmitigated rising temperatures. - Highlights: • We model the impact of rising temperatures on the U.S. power sector. • We examine temperature and mitigation impacts on demand, supply, and investment. • Higher temperatures increase power system costs by about $50 billion by the year 2050. • Meeting demand from higher temperatures costs slightly more than reducing emissions. • Mitigation policy cost analyses should account for temperature impacts

  13. Microsoft project

    OpenAIRE

    Markić, Lucija; Mandušić, Dubravka; Grbavac, Vitomir

    2005-01-01

    Microsoft Project je alat čije su prednosti u svakodnevnom radu nezamjenjive. Pomoću Microsoft Projecta omogućeno je upravljanje resursima, stvaranje izvještaja o projektima u vremenu, te analize različitih scenarija. Pojavljuje u tri verzije: Microsoft Project Professional, Microsoft Project Server i Microsoft Project Server Client Access Licenses. Upravo je trend da suvremeni poslovni ljudi zadatke povjeravaju Microsoft Projectu jer on znatno povećava produktivnost rada. Te prednos...

  14. Trend analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, M.; Jones, D.R.

    1991-01-01

    The goal of exploration is to find reserves that will earn an adequate rate of return on the capital invested. Neither exploration nor economics is an exact science. The authors must therefore explore in those trends (plays) that have the highest probability of achieving this goal. Trend analysis is a technique for organizing the available data to make these strategic exploration decisions objectively and is in conformance with their goals and risk attitudes. Trend analysis differs from resource estimation in its purpose. It seeks to determine the probability of economic success for an exploration program, not the ultimate results of the total industry effort. Thus the recent past is assumed to be the best estimate of the exploration probabilities for the near future. This information is combined with economic forecasts. The computer software tools necessary for trend analysis are (1) Information data base - requirements and sources. (2) Data conditioning program - assignment to trends, correction of errors, and conversion into usable form. (3) Statistical processing program - calculation of probability of success and discovery size probability distribution. (4) Analytical processing - Monte Carlo simulation to develop the probability distribution of the economic return/investment ratio for a trend. Limited capital (short-run) effects are analyzed using the Gambler's Ruin concept in the Monte Carlo simulation and by a short-cut method. Multiple trend analysis is concerned with comparing and ranking trends, allocating funds among acceptable trends, and characterizing program risk by using risk profiles. In summary, trend analysis is a reality check for long-range exploration planning

  15. Low Temperature Irradiation Embrittlement of Reactor Pressure Vessel Steels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Jy-An John [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2015-08-01

    The embrittlement trend curve development project for HFIR reactor pressure vessel (RPV) steels was carried out with three major tasks. Which are (1) data collection to match that used in HFIR steel embrittlement trend published in 1994 Journal Nuclear Material by Remec et. al, (2) new embrittlement data of A212B steel that are not included in earlier HFIR RPV trend curve, and (3) the adjustment of nil-ductility-transition temperature (NDTT) shift data with the consideration of the irradiation temperature effect. An updated HFIR RPV steel embrittlement trend curve was developed, as described below. NDTT( C) = 23.85 log(x) + 203.3 log (x) + 434.7, with 2- uncertainty of 34.6 C, where parameter x is referred to total dpa. The developed update HFIR RPV embrittlement trend curve has higher embrittlement rate compared to that of the trend curve developed in 1994.

  16. Magnitude, temporal trends, and projections of the global prevalence of blindness and distance and near vision impairment: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourne, Rupert R A; Flaxman, Seth R; Braithwaite, Tasanee; Cicinelli, Maria V; Das, Aditi; Jonas, Jost B; Keeffe, Jill; Kempen, John H; Leasher, Janet; Limburg, Hans; Naidoo, Kovin; Pesudovs, Konrad; Resnikoff, Serge; Silvester, Alex; Stevens, Gretchen A; Tahhan, Nina; Wong, Tien Y; Taylor, Hugh R

    2017-09-01

    Global and regional prevalence estimates for blindness and vision impairment are important for the development of public health policies. We aimed to provide global estimates, trends, and projections of global blindness and vision impairment. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of population-based datasets relevant to global vision impairment and blindness that were published between 1980 and 2015. We fitted hierarchical models to estimate the prevalence (by age, country, and sex), in 2015, of mild visual impairment (presenting visual acuity worse than 6/12 to 6/18 inclusive), moderate to severe visual impairment (presenting visual acuity worse than 6/18 to 3/60 inclusive), blindness (presenting visual acuity worse than 3/60), and functional presbyopia (defined as presenting near vision worse than N6 or N8 at 40 cm when best-corrected distance visual acuity was better than 6/12). Globally, of the 7·33 billion people alive in 2015, an estimated 36·0 million (80% uncertainty interval [UI] 12·9-65·4) were blind (crude prevalence 0·48%; 80% UI 0·17-0·87; 56% female), 216·6 million (80% UI 98·5-359·1) people had moderate to severe visual impairment (2·95%, 80% UI 1·34-4·89; 55% female), and 188·5 million (80% UI 64·5-350·2) had mild visual impairment (2·57%, 80% UI 0·88-4·77; 54% female). Functional presbyopia affected an estimated 1094·7 million (80% UI 581·1-1686·5) people aged 35 years and older, with 666·7 million (80% UI 364·9-997·6) being aged 50 years or older. The estimated number of blind people increased by 17·6%, from 30·6 million (80% UI 9·9-57·3) in 1990 to 36·0 million (80% UI 12·9-65·4) in 2015. This change was attributable to three factors, namely an increase because of population growth (38·4%), population ageing after accounting for population growth (34·6%), and reduction in age-specific prevalence (-36·7%). The number of people with moderate and severe visual impairment also increased, from 159·9 million

  17. Groundwater-quality data in 12 GAMA study units: Results from the 2006–10 initial sampling period and the 2008–13 trend sampling period, California GAMA Priority Basin Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathany, Timothy M.

    2017-03-09

    The Priority Basin Project (PBP) of the Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) program was developed in response to the Groundwater Quality Monitoring Act of 2001 and is being conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the California State Water Resources Control Board. From 2004 through 2012, the GAMA-PBP collected samples and assessed the quality of groundwater resources that supply public drinking water in 35 study units across the State. Selected sites in each study unit were sampled again approximately 3 years after initial sampling as part of an assessment of temporal trends in water quality by the GAMA-PBP. Twelve of the study units, initially sampled during 2006–11 (initial sampling period) and sampled a second time during 2008–13 (trend sampling period) to assess temporal trends, are the subject of this report.The initial sampling was designed to provide a spatially unbiased assessment of the quality of untreated groundwater used for public water supplies in the 12 study units. In these study units, 550 sampling sites were selected by using a spatially distributed, randomized, grid-based method to provide spatially unbiased representation of the areas assessed (grid sites, also called “status sites”). After the initial sampling period, 76 of the previously sampled status sites (approximately 10 percent in each study unit) were randomly selected for trend sampling (“trend sites”). The 12 study units sampled both during the initial sampling and during the trend sampling period were distributed among 6 hydrogeologic provinces: Coastal (Northern and Southern), Transverse Ranges and Selected Peninsular Ranges, Klamath, Modoc Plateau and Cascades, and Sierra Nevada Hydrogeologic Provinces. For the purposes of this trend report, the six hydrogeologic provinces were grouped into two hydrogeologic regions based on location: Coastal and Mountain.The groundwater samples were analyzed for a number of synthetic organic

  18. Using high temperature gas-cooled reactors for energy neutral mineral development processes – A proposed IAEA Coordinated Research Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haneklaus, N.; Reitsma, F.; Tulsidas, H.; Dyck, G.; Koshy, T.; Tyobeka, B.; Schnug, E.; Allelein, H-J.; Birky, B.

    2014-01-01

    Today, uranium mined from various regions is the predominant reactor fuel of the present generation of nuclear power plants. The anticipated growth in nuclear energy may require introducing uranium/thorium from unconventional resources (e.g. phosphates, coal ash or sea water) as a future nuclear reactor fuel. The demand for mineral commodities is growing exponentially and high-grade, easily-extractable resources are being depleted rapidly. This shifts the global production to low-grade, or in certain cases unconventional mineral resources, the production of which is constrained by the availability of large amounts of energy. Numerous mining processes can benefit from the use of so-called “thermal processing”. This is in particular beneficial for (1) low grade deposits that cannot be treated using the presently dominant chemical processing techniques; (2) the extraction of high purity end products; and (3) the separation of high value or unwanted impurities (e.g. uranium, thorium, rare earths, etc.) that could be used/sold, when extracted, which will result in cleaner final products. The considerably lower waste products also make it attractive compared to chemical processing. In the future, we may need to extract nuclear fuel and minerals from the same unconventional resources to make nuclear fuel- and low grade ore processing feasible and cost-effective. These processes could be sustainable only if low-cost, carbon free, reliable energy is available for comprehensive extraction of all valuable commodities, for the entire life of the project. Nuclear power plants and specifically High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactors (HTGRs) can produce this energy and heat in a sustainable way, especially if enough uranium/thorium can be extracted to fuel these reactors.

  19. Modelling the occurrence of heat waves in maximum and minimum temperatures over Spain and projections for the period 2031-60

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abaurrea, J.; Asín, J.; Cebrián, A. C.

    2018-02-01

    The occurrence of extreme heat events in maximum and minimum daily temperatures is modelled using a non-homogeneous common Poisson shock process. It is applied to five Spanish locations, representative of the most common climates over the Iberian Peninsula. The model is based on an excess over threshold approach and distinguishes three types of extreme events: only in maximum temperature, only in minimum temperature and in both of them (simultaneous events). It takes into account the dependence between the occurrence of extreme events in both temperatures and its parameters are expressed as functions of time and temperature related covariates. The fitted models allow us to characterize the occurrence of extreme heat events and to compare their evolution in the different climates during the observed period. This model is also a useful tool for obtaining local projections of the occurrence rate of extreme heat events under climate change conditions, using the future downscaled temperature trajectories generated by Earth System Models. The projections for 2031-60 under scenarios RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 are obtained and analysed using the trajectories from four earth system models which have successfully passed a preliminary control analysis. Different graphical tools and summary measures of the projected daily intensities are used to quantify the climate change on a local scale. A high increase in the occurrence of extreme heat events, mainly in July and August, is projected in all the locations, all types of event and in the three scenarios, although in 2051-60 the increase is higher under RCP8.5. However, relevant differences are found between the evolution in the different climates and the types of event, with a specially high increase in the simultaneous ones.

  20. Carbon-Temperature-Water Change Analysis for Peanut Production Under Climate Change: A Prototype for the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alex C.; McDermid, Sonali; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Baigorria, Guillermo A.; Jones, James W.; Romero, Consuelo C.; Cecil, L. DeWayne

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is projected to push the limits of cropping systems and has the potential to disrupt the agricultural sector from local to global scales. This article introduces the Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP), an initiative of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to engage a global network of crop modelers to explore the impacts of climate change via an investigation of crop responses to changes in carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), temperature, and water. As a demonstration of the C3MP protocols and enabled analyses, we apply the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) CROPGRO-Peanut crop model for Henry County, Alabama, to evaluate responses to the range of plausible [CO2], temperature changes, and precipitation changes projected by climate models out to the end of the 21st century. These sensitivity tests are used to derive crop model emulators that estimate changes in mean yield and the coefficient of variation for seasonal yields across a broad range of climate conditions, reproducing mean yields from sensitivity test simulations with deviations of ca. 2% for rain-fed conditions. We apply these statistical emulators to investigate how peanuts respond to projections from various global climate models, time periods, and emissions scenarios, finding a robust projection of modest (20%) losses and larger uncertainty at the end of the century under the more severe representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5). This projection is not substantially altered by the selection of the AgMERRA global gridded climate dataset rather than the local historical observations, differences between the Third and Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5), or the use of the delta method of climate impacts analysis rather than the C3MP impacts response surface and emulator approach.

  1. Global contamination trends of persistent organic chemicals

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Loganathan, Bommanna G; Lam, Paul K. S

    2012-01-01

    "Composed by a diverse group of experts, this reference covers the history, present status, and projected future trends of environmental contamination from highly toxic synthetic chemical pollutants...

  2. Projected warming portends seasonal shifts of stream temperatures in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Leslie A.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Marshall, Lucy A.

    2017-01-01

    Climate warming is expected to increase stream temperatures in mountainous regions of western North America, yet the degree to which future climate change may influence seasonal patterns of stream temperature is uncertain. In this study, a spatially explicit statistical model framework was integrated with empirical stream temperature data (approximately four million bi-hourly recordings) and high-resolution climate and land surface data to estimate monthly stream temperatures and potential change under future climate scenarios in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada (72,000 km2). Moderate and extreme warming scenarios forecast increasing stream temperatures during spring, summer, and fall, with the largest increases predicted during summer (July, August, and September). Additionally, thermal regimes characteristic of current August temperatures, the warmest month of the year, may be exceeded during July and September, suggesting an earlier and extended duration of warm summer stream temperatures. Models estimate that the largest magnitude of temperature warming relative to current conditions may be observed during the shoulder months of winter (April and November). Summer stream temperature warming is likely to be most pronounced in glacial-fed streams where models predict the largest magnitude (> 50%) of change due to the loss of alpine glaciers. We provide the first broad-scale analysis of seasonal climate effects on spatiotemporal patterns of stream temperature in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem for better understanding climate change impacts on freshwater habitats and guiding conservation and climate adaptation strategies.

  3. Cold-season temperature in the Swiss Alps from AD 1100-1500; trends, intra-annual variability and forcing factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Jong, Rixt; Kamenik, Christian; Grosjean, Martin

    2010-05-01

    To fully understand past climatic changes and their forcing factors, detailed reconstructions of past summer and winter temperatures are required. Winter temperature reconstructions are scarce, however, because most biological proxies are biased towards the growing season. This study presents a detailed reconstruction of winter temperatures based on Chrysophyte stomatocysts, silicious scales formed by so-called 'golden algae'. Previous studies (Kamenik and Schmidt, 2005; Pla and Catalan, 2005) have demonstrated the sensitivity of these algae to cold-season temperatures. Chrysophyte stomatocyst analysis was carried out on varved sediments from Lake Silvaplana (1791 m a.s.l.) at annual to near-annual resolution for two periods; AD 1100-1500 and AD 1870-2004. For both periods the reference date 'date of spring mixing' (Smix) was reconstructed using a transfer function developed for the Austrian Alps (Kamenik and Schmidt, 2005). In the Austrian Alps, Smix was primarily driven by air temperature in the cold season. The strength of stomatocysts as a proxy for winter temperature was tested by directly comparing reconstructed Smix with measured temperatures from nearby meteostation Sils Maria for the period AD 1870 - 2004. Correlation was highest (R = -0.6; p number of eruptions during the much shorter instrumental period (Fischer et al., 2007). References: T. Crowley. Science 289, 270-277 (2000) E. Fischer et al. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L05707 (2007) C. Kamenik and R. Schmidt. Boreas 34, 477-489 (2005) I. Larocque-Tobler et al. Quat. Sci. Rev., accepted. S. Pla and J. Catalan. Clim. Dyn. 24, 263-278 (2005) M. Trachsel et al. Manuscript in review

  4. A stakeholder project to model water temperature under future climate scenarios in the Satus and Toppenish watersheds of the Yakima River Basinin Washington, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graves, D.; Maule, A.

    2014-01-01

    The goal of this study was to support an assessment of the potential effects of climate change on select natural, social, and economic resources in the Yakima River Basin. A workshop with local stakeholders highlighted the usefulness of projecting climate change impacts on anadromous steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss), a fish species of importance to local tribes, fisherman, and conservationists. Stream temperature is an important environmental variable for the freshwater stages of steelhead. For this study, we developed water temperature models for the Satus and Toppenish watersheds, two of the key stronghold areas for steelhead in the Yakima River Basin. We constructed the models with the Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP), a mechanistic approach to simulate water temperature in a stream network. The models were calibrated over the April 15, 2008 to September 30, 2008 period and validated over the April 15, 2009 to September 30, 2009 period using historic measurements of stream temperature and discharge provided by the Yakama Nation Fisheries Resource Management Program. Once validated, the models were run to simulate conditions during the spring and summer seasons over a baseline period (1981–2005) and two future climate scenarios with increased air temperature of 1°C and 2°C. The models simulated daily mean and maximum water temperatures at sites throughout the two watersheds under the baseline and future climate scenarios.

  5. Developmental assistance for child and adolescent mental health in low– and middle–income countries (2007–2014): Annual trends and allocation by sector, project type, donors and recipients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Jasmine; Pigott, Hugo; Tomlinson, Mark; Jordans, Mark JD

    2017-01-01

    Background Globally, mental disorders are the leading cause of disability among children and adolescents. To date, there has been no estimate of developmental assistance supporting mental health