#### Sample records for projected scenario based

1. A scenario based project portfolio selection

2015-09-01

Full Text Available One of the primary assumptions in many project portfolio selection is the availability of all parameters. However, in real-world cases, many parameters are under uncertainty and the exact values are unknown in advance. This paper presents a scenario based mathematical model for project portfolio selection when parameters are under uncertainty. The problem considers two objective functions where the first one maximizes the net present value while the second objective function is the minimization of the positive deviations from the allocation of resources. The second objective function is looking for project resource leveling. The resulted model is formulated as mixed integer programming and the problem is analyzed under different conditions.

2. Modern Policyholder Preferences and Scenario-Based Projections

Jensen, Ninna Reitzel

This PhD thesis covers aspects of policyholder preferences and life insurance projections based on economic scenarios. Both topics are relevant to policyholders as well as to the life insurance and pension industry—and equally important, the topics give rise to a variety of interesting mathematical...... is important for designing competitive life insurance and savings products and for providing sound advice to policyholders. Preferences come in many shapes and forms. In this thesis, we focus on separation of risk and time preferences and preferences for smooth investment. The latter is modeled with something...... as unconventional as explicit preferences for not trading, and if not careful, the former entails time-inconsistency. From a policyholder and advisory perspective, scenario-based projections allow for tailor-made bonus, benefit, and retirement savings prognoses that illustrate financial riskiness...

3. Modern Policyholder Preferences and Scenario-Based Projections

Jensen, Ninna Reitzel

This PhD thesis covers aspects of policyholder preferences and life insurance projections based on economic scenarios. Both topics are relevant to policyholders as well as to the life insurance and pension industry—and equally important, the topics give rise to a variety of interesting mathematical...... is important for designing competitive life insurance and savings products and for providing sound advice to policyholders. Preferences come in many shapes and forms. In this thesis, we focus on separation of risk and time preferences and preferences for smooth investment. The latter is modeled with something...... as unconventional as explicit preferences for not trading, and if not careful, the former entails time-inconsistency. From a policyholder and advisory perspective, scenario-based projections allow for tailor-made bonus, benefit, and retirement savings prognoses that illustrate financial riskiness...

4. The scenario-based approach adopted in the ELECTRA project for deriving innovate control room functionality

Marinelli, Mattia; Heussen, Kai; Prostejovsky, Alexander

2017-01-01

. The paper intends to outline the methodology adopted, which is based on the cognitive work analysis framework, to provide an overview of the most interesting scenarios and to summarize the requirements analysis results. In order to derive required control room functionality, a set of relevant control room...... scenarios have been identified based on the Web-of-Cells control concept. We considered scenarios that challenge traditional control schemes, scenarios that caused major failures (i.e., blackouts) and scenarios that can be expected to appear in the future. For each scenario, information concerning network...

5. MIV Project: Mission scenario

Ravazzotti, Mariolina T.; Jørgensen, John Leif; Thuesen, Gøsta

1997-01-01

Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions.......Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions....

6. MIV Project: Mission scenario

Ravazzotti, Mariolina T.; Jørgensen, John Leif; Thuesen, Gøsta;

1997-01-01

Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions....

7. Multilingual and Multicultural Task-Based Learning Scenarios: A Pilot Study from the MAGICC Project

Álvarez, Inma; Pérez-Cavana, María Luisa

2015-01-01

In this article we report on the results of a pilot study on the use of task-based multilingual and multicultural professional scenarios for higher education teachers and learners at BA and MA level. The scenarios reflect new learning outcomes and assessment criteria for the presently under-conceptualised domain of communication in multilingual…

8. Projecting the environmental profile of Singapore's landfill activities: Comparisons of present and future scenarios based on LCA.

Khoo, Hsien H; Tan, Lester L Z; Tan, Reginald B H

2012-05-01

This article aims to generate the environmental profile of Singapore's Semakau landfill by comparing three different operational options associated with the life cycle stages of landfilling activities, against a 'business as usual' scenario. Before life cycle assessment or LCA is used to quantify the potential impacts from landfilling activities, an attempt to incorporate localized and empirical information into the amounts of ash and MSW sent to the landfill was made. A linear regression representation of the relationship between the mass of waste disposed and the mass of incineration ash generated was modeled from waste statistics between years 2004 and 2009. Next, the mass of individual MSW components was projected from 2010 to 2030. The LCA results highlighted that in a 'business as usual' scenario the normalized total impacts of global warming, acidification and human toxicity increased by about 2% annually from 2011 to 2030. By replacing the 8000-tonne barge with a 10000-tonne coastal bulk carrier or freighter (in scenario 2) a grand total reduction of 48% of both global warming potential and acidification can be realized by year 2030. Scenario 3 explored the importance of having a Waste Water Treatment Plant in place to reduce human toxicity levels - however, the overall long-term benefits were not as significant as scenario 2. It is shown in scenario 4 that the option of increased recycling championed over all other three scenarios in the long run, resulting in a total 58% reduction in year 2030 for the total normalized results. A separate comparison of scenarios 1-4 is also carried out for energy utilization and land use in terms of volume of waste occupied. Along with the predicted reductions in environmental burdens, an additional bonus is found in the expanded lifespan of Semakau landfill from year 2032 (base case) to year 2039. Model limitations and suggestions for improvements were also discussed.

9. Methodology To Define Drought Management Scenarios Based On Accumulated Future Projections Of Risk

Haro-Monteagudo, David; Solera-Solera, Abel; Andreu-Álvarez, Joaquín

2014-05-01

Drought is a serious threat to many water resources systems in the world. Especially to those in which the equilibrium between resources availability and water uses is very fragile, making that deviation below normality compromises the capacity of the system to cope with all the demands and environmental requirements. Since droughts are not isolated events but instead they develop through time in what could be considered a creeping behavior, it is very difficult to determine when an episode starts and how long will it last. Because this is a major concern for water managers and society in general, scientific research has strived to develop indices that allow evaluating the risk of a drought event occurrence. These indices often have as basis previous and current state variables of the system that combined between them supply decision making responsible with an indication of the risk of being in a situation of drought, normally through the definition of a drought scenario situation. While this way of proceeding has found to be effective in many systems, there are cases in which indicators systems fail to define the appropriate on-going drought scenario early enough to start measures that allowed to minimize the possible impacts. This is the case, for example, of systems with high seasonal precipitation variability. The use of risk assessment models to evaluate future possible states of the system becomes handy in cases like the previous one, although they are not limited to such systems. We present a method to refine the drought scenario definition within a water resources system. To implement this methodology, we use a risk assessment model generalized to water resources systems based in the stochastic generation of multiple possible future streamflows generation and the simulation of the system from a Monte-Carlo approach. We do this assessment every month of the year up to the end of the hydrologic year that normally corresponds with the end of the irrigation

10. Projection in Future Drought Hazard of South Korea Based on RCP Climate Change Scenario 8.5 Using SPEI

Byung Sik Kim

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI analysis was conducted using monthly precipitation data and temperature data on a 12.5 km × 12.5 km resolution based on a Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5 climate change scenario, and the characteristics of drought were identified by the threshold. In addition, the changes in drought severity and intensity were projected using the threshold based on the run-length concept and frequency analysis. As a result of the analysis, the probability density function of the total drought and maximum drought intensity moved the upper tail for the upcoming years, and the average drought intensity was also projected to become stronger in the future than in the present to the right side. Through this, it could be projected that the drought scale and frequency and the drought intensity will become severer over South Korea because of future climate change.

11. Towards regional projections of twenty-first century sea-level change based on IPCC SRES scenarios

Slangen, A.B.A.; Wal, R.S.W. van de [Utrecht University, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht (Netherlands); Katsman, C.A. [Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), P.O. Box 201, De Bilt (Netherlands); Vermeersen, L.L.A. [TU Delft, Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, Delft (Netherlands); Riva, R.E.M. [TU Delft, Delft (Netherlands)

2012-03-15

Sea-level change is often considered to be globally uniform in sea-level projections. However, local relative sea-level (RSL) change can deviate substantially from the global mean. Here, we present maps of twenty-first century local RSL change estimates based on an ensemble of coupled climate model simulations for three emission scenarios. In the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), the same model simulations were used for their projections of global mean sea-level rise. The contribution of the small glaciers and ice caps to local RSL change is calculated with a glacier model, based on a volume-area approach. The contributions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are obtained from IPCC AR4 estimates. The RSL distribution resulting from the land ice mass changes is then calculated by solving the sea-level equation for a rotating, elastic Earth model. Next, we add the pattern of steric RSL changes obtained from the coupled climate models and a model estimate for the effect of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment. The resulting ensemble mean RSL pattern reveals that many regions will experience RSL changes that differ substantially from the global mean. For the A1B ensemble, local RSL change values range from -3.91 to 0.79 m, with a global mean of 0.47 m. Although the RSL amplitude differs, the spatial patterns are similar for all three emission scenarios. The spread in the projections is dominated by the distribution of the steric contribution, at least for the processes included in this study. Extreme ice loss scenarios may alter this picture. For individual sites, we find a standard deviation for the combined contributions of approximately 10 cm, regardless of emission scenario. (orig.)

12. Peninsular Florida future scenarios integrated project

US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This is a integrated scenario project to the Florida state line that incorporates updated critical land and water identification project layers with a decision...

13. Web Based Tool for Mission Operations Scenarios

Boyles, Carole A.; Bindschadler, Duane L.

2008-01-01

A conventional practice for spaceflight projects is to document scenarios in a monolithic Operations Concept document. Such documents can be hundreds of pages long and may require laborious updates. Software development practice utilizes scenarios in the form of smaller, individual use cases, which are often structured and managed using UML. We have developed a process and a web-based scenario tool that utilizes a similar philosophy of smaller, more compact scenarios (but avoids the formality of UML). The need for a scenario process and tool became apparent during the authors' work on a large astrophysics mission. It was noted that every phase of the Mission (e.g., formulation, design, verification and validation, and operations) looked back to scenarios to assess completeness of requirements and design. It was also noted that terminology needed to be clarified and structured to assure communication across all levels of the project. Attempts to manage, communicate, and evolve scenarios at all levels of a project using conventional tools (e.g., Excel) and methods (Scenario Working Group meetings) were not effective given limitations on budget and staffing. The objective of this paper is to document the scenario process and tool created to offer projects a low-cost capability to create, communicate, manage, and evolve scenarios throughout project development. The process and tool have the further benefit of allowing the association of requirements with particular scenarios, establishing and viewing relationships between higher- and lower-level scenarios, and the ability to place all scenarios in a shared context. The resulting structured set of scenarios is widely visible (using a web browser), easily updated, and can be searched according to various criteria including the level (e.g., Project, System, and Team) and Mission Phase. Scenarios are maintained in a web-accessible environment that provides a structured set of scenario fields and allows for maximum

14. Particle reduction strategies - PAREST. Gridded European emission data for projection years 2010, 2015 and 2020 based on the IIASA GAINS NEC scenarios. Teilbericht

Gon, Hugo Denier van der; Visschedijk, Antoon; Brugh, Hans van den [TNO Earth, Environment and Life Sciences, Utrecht (Netherlands)

2013-06-15

Projected emissions for selected scenarios for the years 2010, 2015 and 2020 were obtained from the GAINS NEC scenario reports and distributed on a high resolution over Europe using the TNO gridding tools. These emission maps are available as model input in the PAREST project to model the contribution of Europe to air quality in Germany in 2010, 2015 and 2020 (see note Rainer Stern, May 2009). The scenarios have a significant influence on absolute emission levels for the countries that were covered by IIASA GAINS. This suggests that emission changes in countries were no scenarios were available (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia) or where only a projection year baseline is available (all non-EU) may be subject to significant changes as well (but these are quite far from Germany). For future projects it is recommended to make simple and transparent scenarios for these other countries, as well as for International Shipping. The change in emissions from the base year 2005 to the projection year 2010 needs to be interpreted with care. This because some methodology differences between 2005 official emission data as used in the PAREST base year 2005 emission set and GAINS 2010 data exist. It is expected that the emission reduction steps towards 2020 are more realistic.

15. Future climate in world regions: an intercomparison of model-based projections for the new IPCC emissions scenarios

Ruosteenoja, K.; Carter, T.R.; Jylhae, K.; Tuomenvirta, H.

2003-07-01

Projections of changes in seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation for three 30-year periods during the 21st century in 32 sub-continental scale regions are presented. This information may offer useful guidance on the selection of climate scenarios for regional impact studies. The climate changes have been simulated by seven coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), the greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing being inferred from the SRES emission scenarios A1F1, A2, B1 and B2. For a majority of the AOGCMs, simulations have only been conducted for scenarios A2 and B2. Projections for other scenarios were then extrapolated from the available runs applying a pattern-scaling technique. In tests, this method proved to be fairly accurate, the correlation between the AOGCM-simulated and the corresponding pattern-scaled response to the A2 scenario for the end of the 21st century being generally {approx} 0.97 - 0.99 for temperature and {approx} 0.9 or higher for precipitation. Projected changes of temperature and precipitation are presented in the form of 384 scatter diagrams. The model-simulated temperature changes were almost invariably statistically significant, i.e., they fell clearly outside the natural multi-decadal variability derived from 1000-year unforced coupled AOGCM simulations. For precipitation, fewer modelled changes were statistically significant, especially in the earliest projection period 2010-2039. Differences in the projections given by various models were substantial, of the same order of magnitude by the end of the century as differences among the responses to separate forcing scenarios. Nevertheless, the surface air temperature increased in all regions and seasons. For precipitation, changes with both sign occurred, but an increase of regional precipitation was more common than a decrease. All models simulate higher precipitation at high latitudes and enhanced summer monsoon precipitation for Southern and Eastern Asia. There

16. Scenario Based Education as a Framework for Understanding Students Engagement and Learning in a Project Management Simulation Game

Misfeldt, Morten

2015-01-01

In this paper I describe s how students use a project management simulation game based on an attack‑defense mechanism where two teams of players compete by challenging each other⠒s projects. The project management simulation game is intended to be playe d by pre‑service construction workers and e...

17. Scenario Based Education as a Framework for Understanding Students Engagement and Learning in a Project Management Simulation Game

Misfeldt, Morten

2015-01-01

In this paper I describe how students use a project management simulation game based on an attack-defense mechanism where two teams of players compete by challenging each other's projects. The project management simulation game is intended to be played by pre-service construction workers and engineers. The gameplay has two parts: a planning part,…

18. Scenario Based Education as a Framework for Understanding Students Engagement and Learning in a Project Management Simulation Game

Misfeldt, Morten

2015-01-01

In this paper I describe s how students use a project management simulation game based on an attack‑defense mechanism where two teams of players compete by challenging each other⠒s projects. The project management simulation game is intended to be playe d by pre‑service construction workers...... and engineers. The gameplay has two parts: a planning part, where the player make managerial decisions about his construction site, and a challenge part where the player chooses between typical problems to occur on th e opponent⠒s construction site. Playing the game involves analyzing both your own and you...... opponent⠒s building project for weak spots. The intention of the project management simulation game, is to provide students with an increased sensitivity towards the relation between planning and reality in complex construction projects. The project management simulation game can be interpreted both...

19. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

2016-09-01

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit

20. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

O& amp; apos; Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

2016-01-01

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially

1. Towards regional projections of twenty-first century sea-level change based on IPCC SRES scenarios

Slangen, A.B.A.; Katsman, C.A.; Van de Wal, R.S.W.; Vermeersen, L.L.A.; Riva, R,E.M.

2012-01-01

Sea-level change is often considered to be globally uniform in sea-level projections. However, local relative sea-level (RSL) change can deviate substantially from the global mean. Here, we present maps of twenty-first century local RSL change estimates based on an ensemble of coupled climate model

2. Using scenarios for dissemination - Experiences from the IMS GLOBEMEN project

Ollus, Martin; Hartel, Ingo; Tølle, Martin;

2002-01-01

due to the complexities of the interdisciplinary field addressed. As an instrument for communication to the non-specialist public the IMS GLOBEMEN project produces a web-based scenario as part of its dissemination activities. It is aimed at giving a practical overview of specific challenges...

3. Application of scenario analysis in the investment projects evaluation

Brzaković Tomislav

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Investing represents an investment in the present to achieve certain effects in the future, and risk is an essential part of the investment process. Scenario analysis involves key risk factors of the project, its sensitivity to changes in key factors and the likelihood of their changes. Scenario analysis allows us to assign probabilities to the base case, the best case and the worst case so that we can find the expected value and standard deviation of the project's NPV to get a better idea of the project's risk. The goal is to determine whether it is possible to make relevant investment decisions on the basis of the parameters of projects risk, such as the standard deviation and the coefficient of variation. The paper is based on a mathematical model, applied to a specific agricultural company. In our case, the project has a wide range of possibilities and a large potential negative value, which suggests a great risk of the project. Although the scenario analysis shows a higher risk, it is not clear if the project should be accepted or not, and therefore, it is necessary to conduct simulation analysis, in order to get reliable answers.

4. Reference Scenario Forecasting: A New Approach to Transport Project Assessment

Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen; Skougaard, Britt Zoëga

2010-01-01

forecasting (RSF) frame. The RSF is anchored in the cost-benefit analysis (CBA), thus, it provides decision-makers with a quantitative mean of assessing the transport infrastructure project. First, the RSF method introduces uncertainties within the CBA by applying Optimism Bias uplifts on the preliminary......This paper presents a new approach to transport project assessment in terms of feasibility risk assessment and reference class forecasting. Normally, transport project assessment is based upon a cost-benefit approach where evaluation criteria such as net present values are obtained. Recent research...... distribution functions. The latter have been placed and ultimately simulated on the inaccuracies of determining demand forecasts, i.e. leading to the travel time savings and ticket revenues of the project. Finally, RSF makes use of scenario forecasting where trend scenarios such as economic growth and level...

5. Projections of high resolution climate changes for South Korea using multiple-regional climate models based on four RCP scenarios. Part 1: surface air temperature

Suh, Myoung-Seok; Oh, Seok-Geun; Lee, Young-Suk; Ahn, Joong-Bae; Cha, Dong-Hyun; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Hong, Song-You; Min, Seung-Ki; Park, Seong-Chan; Kang, Hyun-Suk

2016-05-01

We projected surface air temperature changes over South Korea during the mid (2026-2050) and late (2076-2100) 21st century against the current climate (1981-2005) using the simulation results from five regional climate models (RCMs) driven by Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2, coupled with the Atmosphere- Ocean (HadGEM2-AO), and two ensemble methods (equal weighted averaging, weighted averaging based on Taylor's skill score) under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. In general, the five RCM ensembles captured the spatial and seasonal variations, and probability distribution of temperature over South Korea reasonably compared to observation. They particularly showed a good performance in simulating annual temperature range compared to HadGEM2-AO. In future simulation, the temperature over South Korea will increase significantly for all scenarios and seasons. Stronger warming trends are projected in the late 21st century than in the mid-21st century, in particular under RCP8.5. The five RCM ensembles projected that temperature changes for the mid/late 21st century relative to the current climate are +1.54°C/+1.92°C for RCP2.6, +1.68°C/+2.91°C for RCP4.5, +1.17°C/+3.11°C for RCP6.0, and +1.75°C/+4.73°C for RCP8.5. Compared to the temperature projection of HadGEM2-AO, the five RCM ensembles projected smaller increases in temperature for all RCP scenarios and seasons. The inter-RCM spread is proportional to the simulation period (i.e., larger in the late-21st than mid-21st century) and significantly greater (about four times) in winter than summer for all RCP scenarios. Therefore, the modeled predictions of temperature increases during the late 21st century, particularly for winter temperatures, should be used with caution.

6. Projections of high resolution climate changes for South Korea using multiple-regional climate models based on four RCP scenarios. Part 2: precipitation

Oh, Seok-Geun; Suh, Myoung-Seok; Lee, Young-Suk; Ahn, Joong-Bae; Cha, Dong-Hyun; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Hong, Song-You; Min, Seung-Ki; Park, Seong-Chan; Kang, Hyun-Suk

2016-05-01

Precipitation changes over South Korea were projected using five regional climate models (RCMs) with a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km for the mid and late 21st century (2026-2050, 2076- 2100) under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios against present precipitation (1981-2005). The simulation data of the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2 coupled with the Atmosphere-Ocean (HadGEM2-AO) was used as boundary data of RCMs. In general, the RCMs well simulated the spatial and seasonal variations of present precipitation compared with observation and HadGEM2-AO. Equal Weighted Averaging without Bias Correction (EWA_NBC) significantly reduced the model biases to some extent, but systematic biases in results still remained. However, the Weighted Averaging based on Taylor's skill score (WEA_Tay) showed a good statistical correction in terms of the spatial and seasonal variations, the magnitude of precipitation amount, and the probability density. In the mid-21st century, the spatial and interannual variabilities of precipitation over South Korea are projected to increase regardless of the RCP scenarios and seasons. However, the changes in area-averaged seasonal precipitation are not significant due to mixed changing patterns depending on locations. Whereas, in the late 21st century, the precipitation is projected to increase proportionally to the changes of net radiative forcing. Under RCP8.5, WEA_Tay projects the precipitation to be increased by about +19.1, +20.5, +33.3% for annual, summer and winter precipitation at 1-5% significance levels, respectively. In addition, the probability of strong precipitation (≥ 15 mm d-1) is also projected to increase significantly, particularly in WEA_Tay under RCP8.5.

7. Sea of Scenarios: Reducing Uncertainties in Methane Projections

Matthews, E.; Baum, E.

2010-12-01

Climate-chemistry model experiments for the 21st century have relied almost exclusively on a small set of unexamined methane (and other) emission projections from economics-based models. Over the past decade, the US Environmental Protection Agency and the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) provided baseline and mitigation methane scenarios. The SRES family of projections for the IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001) encompassed multiple economic, demographic, and environmental assumptions quantified by several models. In contrast to both of these efforts, plans for IPCC5 include additional scenario development consistent with end-of-century forcings ranging from 2.6 to 8.5W/m2. The largely black-box nature of emission projections used in climate-chemistry experiments and policy analyses has received little attention despite the substantial influence these inputs can exert. This lack of transparency makes assessing the likelihood, or even the plausibility, of projected emissions difficult, contributes to uncertainties in climate simulations, and leaves policy discussions lacking the practical understanding needed to decide on mitigation strategies. We report on analysis of multiple baseline and mitigation methane projections, including our own new ones, to assess the plausibility of underlying assumptions and data. We propose that this analysis can reduce uncertainties in climate predictions by restricting, not enlarging, the suite of methane scenarios to those likely to occur.

8. A case study of metric-based and scenario-driven black-box testing for SAP projects

Daneva, Maya; Abran, Alain; Ormandjieva, Olga; Abu Talib, Manar; Abran, Alain; Bundschuh, Manfred; Buren, Gunter; Dumke, Reiner R.

2006-01-01

Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) projects are perceived as mission-critical initiatives in many organizations. They are parts of business transformation programs and are instrumental in improving organizational performance. In ERP implementations, testing is an activity that is crucial in order to

9. Projections of Water Stress Based on an Ensemble of Socioeconomic Growth and Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in Asia.

Fant, Charles; Schlosser, C Adam; Gao, Xiang; Strzepek, Kenneth; Reilly, John

2016-01-01

The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios--internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population--to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify the primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region's population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers.

10. Scenario-based projections of future urban inundation within a coupled hydrodynamic model framework: A case study in Dongguan City, China

Wu, Xushu; Wang, Zhaoli; Guo, Shenglian; Liao, Weilin; Zeng, Zhaoyang; Chen, Xiaohong

2017-04-01

One major threat to cities at present is the increased inundation hazards owing to changes in climate and accelerated human activity. Future evolution of urban inundation is still an unsolved issue, given large uncertainties in future environmental conditions within urbanized areas. Developing model techniques and urban inundation projections are essential for inundation management. In this paper, we proposed a 2D hydrodynamic inundation model by coupling SWMM and LISFLOOD-FP models, and revealed how future urban inundation would evolve for different storms, sea level rise and subsidence scenarios based on the developed model. The Shiqiao Creek District (SCD) in Dongguan City was used as the case study. The model ability was validated against the June 13th, 2008 inundation event, which occurred in SCD, and proved capable of simulating dynamic urban inundation. Scenario analyses revealed a high degree of consistency in the inundation patterns among different storms, with larger magnitudes corresponding to greater return periods. Inundations across SCD generally vary as a function of storm intensity, but for lowlands or regions without drainage facilities inundations tend to aggravate over time. In riverfronts, inundations would exacerbate with sea level rise or subsidence; however, the inland inundations are seemingly insensitive to both factors. For the combined scenario of 100-yr storm, 0.5 m subsidence and 0.7 m sea level rise, the riverside inundations would occur much in advance, whilst catastrophic inundations sweep across SCD. Furthermore, the optimal low-impact development found for this case study includes 0.2 km2 of permeable pavements, 0.1 km2 of rain barrels and 0.7 km2 of green roofs.

11. Scenario projections for future market potentials of biobased bulk chemicals

Dornburg, V.; Hermann, B.G.; Patel, M.K.

2008-01-01

Three scenario projections for future market potentials of biobased bulk chemicals produced by means of white biotechnology are developed for Europe (EU-25) until the year 2050, and potential nonrenewable energy savings, greenhouse gas emission reduction, and land use consequences are analyzed. These scenarios assume benign, moderate, and disadvantageous conditions for biobased chemicals. The scenario analysis yields a broad range of values for the possible market development of white biotech...

12. Scenario Based Network Infrastructure Planning

Knudsen, Thomas Phillip; Pedersen, Jens Myrup; Madsen, Ole Brun

2005-01-01

The paper presents a method for IT infrastructure planning that take into account very long term developments in usages. The method creates a scenario for a final, time independent stage in the planning process. The method abstracts relevant modelling factors from available information...

13. Scenario Based Network Infrastructure Planning

Knudsen, Thomas Phillip; Pedersen, Jens Myrup; Madsen, Ole Brun

2005-01-01

The paper presents a method for IT infrastructure planning that take into account very long term developments in usages. The method creates a scenario for a final, time independent stage in the planning process. The method abstracts relevant modelling factors from available information...

14. Summary of student scenarios: 2020 Vision project, fiscal year 1997

Gordon, K.W.; Munoz, A.; Scott, K.P.; Rinne, R.

1997-11-01

The Strategic Issues Thinking: 2020 Vision project introduces students and teaches to national security issues through the techniques of scenario building, and engages them in an interactive process of creating scenarios relevant to the Department of Energy, Defense Programs (DOE/DP). Starting with the world as it is today, teams of students develop a series of scenarios on international developments over the next 25 years under various circumstances. This report identifies recurrent themes in the student`s scenarios, lists creative ways the students presented their scenarios, compares and contrasts the program`s FY97 results with FY96 results, identifies the benefits of the program, and offers a glimpse of Sandia`s future plans for the 2020 Vision project.

15. Reference Scenario Forecasting: A New Approach to Transport Project Assessment

Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen; Skougaard, Britt Zoëga

2010-01-01

construction cost estimates. Hereafter, a quantitative risk analysis is provided making use of Monte Carlo simulation. This stochastic approach facilitates random input parameters based upon reference class forecasting, hence, a parameter data fit has been performed in order to obtain validated probability...... has however proved that substantial inaccuracies are present when obtaining the monetary input to the cost-benefit analysis, particularly as concerns the construction costs and demand forecasts. This paper proposes a new approach in order to assess these biases in a so-called reference scenario...... forecasting (RSF) frame. The RSF is anchored in the cost-benefit analysis (CBA), thus, it provides decision-makers with a quantitative mean of assessing the transport infrastructure project. First, the RSF method introduces uncertainties within the CBA by applying Optimism Bias uplifts on the preliminary...

16. Transport project evaluation: feasibility risk assessment and scenario forecasting

Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

2017-01-01

on the preliminary construction cost estimates. Hereafter, a quantitative risk analysis is provided making use of Monte Carlo simulation. This approach facilitates random input parameters based upon reference class forecasting, hence, a parameter data fit has been performed in order to obtain validated probability......) are obtained. Recent research has however proved that substantial inaccuracies are present when obtaining the monetary input to the CBA, particularly as concerns the construction costs and demand forecasts. This paper proposes a new approach in order to address these inaccuracies in a so-called Reference...... Scenario Forecasting (RSF) frame. The RSF is anchored in the cost-benefit analysis; thus, it provides decision-makers with a quantitative mean of assessing the transport infrastructure project. First, the RSF method introduces uncertainties within the CBA by applying Optimism Bias uplifts...

17. Projected SST trends across the Caribbean Sea based on PRECIS downscaling of ECHAM4, under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios

Nurse, Leonard A.; Charlery, John L.

2016-01-01

The Caribbean Sea and adjacent land areas are highly sensitive to the projected impacts of global climate change. The countries bordering the Caribbean Sea depend heavily on coastal and marine assets as a major source of livelihood support. Rising sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are known to be associated with coral bleaching, ocean acidification, and other phenomena that threaten livelihoods in the region. The paucity of SST systematic observations in both the Caribbean Sea and adjoining Western Atlantic waters is a limiting factor in the projection of future climate change impacts on the region's marine resources. Remote sensing of SST by satellites began only within the last three decades and although the data collected so far might be insufficient to provide conclusive definitions of long-term SST variations in the Caribbean waters, these data along with the output from climate model simulations provide a useful basis for gaining further insights into plausible SST futures under IPCC SRES scenarios. In this paper, we examine the recent SST records from the NESDIS AVHRR satellite data and NOAA Optimum Interpolation (OI) sea surface temperature V2 and provide a comparative analysis of projected SST changes for the Caribbean Sea up to the end of the twenty-first century, under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios' simulations of the sea surface skin temperatures (SSsT) using the Hadley Centre's regional model, PRECIS. The implications of these projected SST changes for bleaching of coral reefs, one of the region's most valuable marine resource, and for rainfall are also discussed.

18. Scenario projections for future market potentials of biobased bulk chemicals

Dornburg, V.; Hermann, B.G.; Patel, M.K.

2008-01-01

Three scenario projections for future market potentials of biobased bulk chemicals produced by means of white biotechnology are developed for Europe (EU-25) until the year 2050, and potential nonrenewable energy savings, greenhouse gas emission reduction, and land use consequences are analyzed. Thes

19. Modelling Project Feasibility Robustness by Use of Scenarios

Moshøj, Claus Rehfeld; Leleur, Steen

1998-01-01

, SEAM secures a consistent inclusion of actual scenario elements in the quantitative impact modelling and facilitates a transparent project feasibility robustness analysis. SEAM is implemented as part of a decision support system with a toolbox structure applicable to different types of transport...... investment analysis....

20. Scenarios

Joao M. Goncalves

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Personal information is increasingly gathered and used for providing services tailored to user preferences, but the datasets used to provide such functionality can represent serious privacy threats if not appropriately protected. Work in privacy-preserving data publishing targeted privacy guarantees that protect against record re-identification, by making records indistinguishable, or sensitive attribute value disclosure, by introducing diversity or noise in the sensitive values. However, most approaches fail in the high-dimensional case, and the ones that don't introduce a utility cost incompatible with tailored recommendation scenarios. This paper aims at a sensible trade-off between privacy and the benefits of tailored recommendations, in the context of privacy-preserving data publishing. We empirically demonstrate that significant privacy improvements can be achieved at a utility cost compatible with tailored recommendation scenarios, using a simple partition-based sanitization method.

1. Computational Scenario-based Capability Planning

Abbass, Hussein; Dam, Helen; Baker, Stephen; Whitacre, James M; Sarker, Ruhul; 10.1145/1389095.1389378

2009-01-01

Scenarios are pen-pictures of plausible futures, used for strategic planning. The aim of this investigation is to expand the horizon of scenario-based planning through computational models that are able to aid the analyst in the planning process. The investigation builds upon the advances of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) to create a novel, flexible and customizable computational capability-based planning methodology that is practical and theoretically sound. We will show how evolutionary computation, in particular evolutionary multi-objective optimization, can play a central role - both as an optimizer and as a source for innovation.

2. Scenario-based Training: Director's Cut

Peeters, M.M.M.; Van den Bosch, K.; Meyer, J-J.Ch.; Neerincx, M.A.

2011-01-01

Research regarding autonomous learning shows that freeplay does not result in optimal learning. Combining scenario-based training with intelligent agent technology off ers the possibility to create autonomous training enriched with automated adaptive support delivered by a director agent. We conduct

3. Scenario-based table top simulations

Broberg, Ole; Edwards, Kasper; Nielsen, J.

2012-01-01

This study developed and tested a scenario-based table top simulation method in a user-driven innovation setting. A team of researchers worked together with a user group of five medical staff members from the existing clinic. Table top simulations of a new clinic were carried out in a simple model...... including patient scenarios, LEGO figures, shoeboxes, and cardboard. The results indicated that table top simulations is a simple, cheap and powerful tool to generate and test innovative conceptual solutions in the early stages of a design process....

4. The effects of increased stream temperatures on juvenile steelhead growth in the Yakima River Basin based on projected climate change scenarios

Hardiman, Jill M.; Mesa, Matthew G.

2013-01-01

Stakeholders within the Yakima River Basin expressed concern over impacts of climate change on mid-Columbia River steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss), listed under the Endangered Species Act. We used a bioenergetics model to assess the impacts of changing stream temperatures—resulting from different climate change scenarios—on growth of juvenile steelhead in the Yakima River Basin. We used diet and fish size data from fieldwork in a bioenergetics model and integrated baseline and projected stream temperatures from down-scaled air temperature climate modeling into our analysis. The stream temperature models predicted that daily mean temperatures of salmonid-rearing streams in the basin could increase by 1–2°C and our bioenergetics simulations indicated that such increases could enhance the growth of steelhead in the spring, but reduce it during the summer. However, differences in growth rates of fish living under different climate change scenarios were minor, ranging from about 1–5%. Because our analysis focused mostly on the growth responses of steelhead to changes in stream temperatures, further work is needed to fully understand the potential impacts of climate change. Studies should include evaluating changing stream flows on fish activity and energy budgets, responses of aquatic insects to climate change, and integration of bioenergetics, population dynamics, and habitat responses to climate change.

5. Transportation energy scenario analysis technical report No. 1: examination of four existing scenarios. [Projections for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025

Bernard, M. J.; LaBelle, S. J.; Millar, M.; Walbridge, E. W.

1978-03-01

This project aims to provide the DOE Division of Transportation Energy Conservation (TEC) with a long-range forecasting framework in which to evaluate potential changes to the U.S. Transportation system. This initial report examines four existing, but diverse, 50-year scenarios of the future. It describes the scenarios and summarizes the changes in the major transportation system variables that would occur through the year 2025 in each scenario. Projections of variables of interest to TEC are explored, including passenger or ton miles and energy consumption. Each is reported for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025 under four scenarios: success, moderate economic growth, energy crisis, and transformation. The philosophy of this project is that the transportation system must support future lifestyles; by examining potential future lifestyles the required transportation system changes can be deduced. The project: (a) develops a set of scenarios that span likely futures; (b) describes the lifestyles in each scenario in order; (c) determines the characteristics of the transportation system supporting those lifestyles; (d) indicates transportation technologies and policies necessary in that system; and (e) derives the energy characteristics of that system. The implications of the four existing scenarios are examined with emphasis on current TEC electric-vehicle development. This preliminary investigation will be followed by detailed-scenario building (modifying existing scenarios or developing new ones) and generation of lifestyles and transportation system demands under each of the scenarios. This work will be reported in October 1978.

6. Developing Emergency Scenario through the Project Management Body of Knowledge Approach

Omid Kalatpour

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Background & Objectives : The sound planning is needed for effective implementation of an emergency exercise. The exercise planning is manifested in the scenario development process. Despite the frequent execution of exercises in the industries and the public domain, there is no uniform pattern for designing scenarios. The present paper aims at devising a new pattern based on the project management body of knowledge ( PMBOK approach. Methods: Ten principles of the PMBOK and their substructures were analyzed. The application processes were extracted in two parts the structural and executive parts. Then, these processes were translated into the its equivalent norms in the emerging scenario development process. Finally, a pattern was proposed for preparing an emergency scenario. Result: The proposed method was developed in a ten step process. Step by step implementation of these processes can help one to make an acceptable scenario. In comparison with the two most common international patterns for developing a scenario, the present method has some unique characteristics. Quality, Time, Cost and Interested Parties management are the mentioned properties. In general, the present method has some components that represent more details for users.. Conclusions : Using the project management body of knowledge approach one can develop a standard frame for developing an emergency scenario.

7. Scenario projections for future market potentials of biobased bulk chemicals.

Dornburg, Veronika; Hermann, Barbara G; Patel, Martin K

2008-04-01

Three scenario projections for future market potentials of biobased bulk chemicals produced by means of white biotechnology are developed for Europe (EU-25) until the year 2050, and potential nonrenewable energy savings, greenhouse gas emission reduction, and land use consequences are analyzed. These scenarios assume benign, moderate, and disadvantageous conditions for biobased chemicals. The scenario analysis yields a broad range of values for the possible market development of white biotechnology chemicals, that is, resulting in a share of white biotechnology chemicals relative to all organic chemicals of about 7 (or 5 million tonnes), 17.5 (or 26 million tonnes), or 38% (or 113 million tonnes) in 2050. We conclude that under favorable conditions, white biotechnology enables substantial savings of nonrenewable energy use (NREU) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to the energy use of the future production of all organic chemicals from fossil resources. Savings of NREU reach up to 17% for starch crops and up to 31% for lignocellulosic feedstock by 2050, and saving percentages for GHG emissions are in a similar range. Parallel to these environmental benefits, economic advantages of up to 75 billion Euro production cost savings arise.

8. Reality based scenarios facilitate knowledge network development.

Manning, J; Broughton, V; McConnell, E A

1995-03-01

The challenge in nursing education is to create a learning environment that enables students to learn new knowledge, access previously acquired information from a variety of disciplines, and apply this newly constructed knowledge to the complex and constantly changing world of practice. Faculty at the University of South Australia, School of Nursing, City Campus describe the use of reality based scenarios to acquire domain-specific knowledge and develop well connected associative knowledge networks, both of which facilitate theory based practice and the student's transition to the role of registered nurse.

9. An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change.

Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Logan, Travis; Lambert, Marie-Claude; de Blois, Sylvie; Berteaux, Dominique

2016-01-01

An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one.

10. Scenarios

Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

2015-01-01

We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

11. Scenario

Vidal, Rene Victor Valqui

1996-01-01

The main purpose of this paper is to give a synthetic presentation of hte well-known scenario method. Different schools and traditions will be shortly presented. In addition guidelines for hte use of this method will be discussed. Finally, applications will also be outlined as well as some critic...

12. Innovative Educational Scenarios in Game Based Teaching and Learning

Ion Smeureanu

2017-08-01

Full Text Available The didactical game can be considered part of an educational scenario in teaching and learning. This article aims to show how fundamental concepts from the economicmathematical modeling area can be visualized, how to organize knowledge in coherent scenarios, presented in an educational game manner, to gain the attention and influence students' spirit of competition. At the same time, benefitting from the 3D visualizations, the graphical interfaces for navigating in multidimensional spaces or projections are defined and thus imagination used for mental models construction is stimulated and human intuition is capitalized in the process of knowledge discovery, assisted by computer with analytic algorithms type. Exploration becomes a game feature and can be pursued both numerically and visually. 3D environments give realism to visualizations that are found in games, facilitating realimaginary relationship throughout the game and enhancing learning motivation. The innovative character of teaching is given by the method in which the teacher creates his own educational scenario by considering specific learning objectives, age particularities of students, time and space-related resources, the technical requirements of the game and the evaluation method. The paper makes several references to such projects, developed by the authors and implemented in working with students. Game based on demonstration (using simulation, modelling or visualization coordinates users to obtain relevant information; the multiple representations of knowledge are so used and compared through a multitude of examples.

13. Future Scenarios for Fission Based Reactors

David, S.

2005-04-01

The coming century will see the exhaustion of standard fossil fuels, coal, gas and oil, which today represent 75% of the world energy production. Moreover, their use will have caused large-scale emission of greenhouse gases (GEG), and induced global climate change. This problem is exacerbated by a growing world energy demand. In this context, nuclear power is the only GEG-free energy source available today capable of responding significantly to this demand. Some scenarios consider a nuclear energy production of around 5 Gtoe in 2050, wich would represent a 20% share of the world energy supply. Present reactors generate energy from the fission of U-235 and require around 200 tons of natural Uranium to produce 1GWe.y of energy, equivalent to the fission of one ton of fissile material. In a scenario of a significant increase in nuclear energy generation, these standard reactors will consume the whole of the world's estimated Uranium reserves in a few decades. However, natural Uranium or Thorium ore, wich are not themselves fissile, can produce a fissile material after a neutron capture ( 239Pu and 233U respectively). In a breeder reactor, the mass of fissile material remains constant, and the fertile ore is the only material to be consumed. In this case, only 1 ton of natural ore is needed to produce 1GWe.y. Thus, the breeding concept allows optimal use of fertile ore and development of sustainable nuclear energy production for several thousand years into the future. Different sustainable nuclear reactor concepts are studied in the international forum "generation IV". Different types of coolant (Na, Pb and He) are studied for fast breeder reactors based on the Uranium cycle. The thermal Thorium cycle requires the use of a liquid fuel, which can be reprocessed online in order to extract the neutron poisons. This paper presents these different sustainable reactors, based on the Uranium or Thorium fuel cycles and will compare the different options in term of fissile

14. Projected changes in distributions of Australian tropical savanna birds under climate change using three dispersal scenarios.

Reside, April E; Vanderwal, Jeremy; Kutt, Alex S

2012-04-01

Identifying the species most vulnerable to extinction as a result of climate change is a necessary first step in mitigating biodiversity decline. Species distribution modeling (SDM) is a commonly used tool to assess potential climate change impacts on distributions of species. We use SDMs to predict geographic ranges for 243 birds of Australian tropical savannas, and to project changes in species richness and ranges under a future climate scenario between 1990 and 2080. Realistic predictions require recognition of the variability in species capacity to track climatically suitable environments. Here we assess the effect of dispersal on model results by using three approaches: full dispersal, no dispersal and a partial-dispersal scenario permitting species to track climate change at a rate of 30 km per decade. As expected, the projected distributions and richness patterns are highly sensitive to the dispersal scenario. Projected future range sizes decreased for 66% of species if full dispersal was assumed, but for 89% of species when no dispersal was assumed. However, realistic future predictions should not assume a single dispersal scenario for all species and as such, we assigned each species to the most appropriate dispersal category based on individual mobility and habitat specificity; this permitted the best estimates of where species will be in the future. Under this "realistic" dispersal scenario, projected ranges sizes decreased for 67% of species but showed that migratory and tropical-endemic birds are predicted to benefit from climate change with increasing distributional area. Richness hotspots of tropical savanna birds are expected to move, increasing in southern savannas and southward along the east coast of Australia, but decreasing in the arid zone. Understanding the complexity of effects of climate change on species' range sizes by incorporating dispersal capacities is a crucial step toward developing adaptation policies for the conservation of

15. Projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios: a systematic review.

Huang, Cunrui; Barnett, Adrian Gerard; Wang, Xiaoming; Vaneckova, Pavla; FitzGerald, Gerard; Tong, Shilu

2011-12-01

Heat-related mortality is a matter of great public health concern, especially in the light of climate change. Although many studies have found associations between high temperatures and mortality, more research is needed to project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. We conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. A literature search was conducted in August 2010, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 through July 2010. Fourteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding historical temperature-mortality relationships and considering the future changes in climate, population, and acclimatization. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution, and mortality displacement. Scenario-based projection research will meaningfully contribute to assessing and managing the potential impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality.

16. Response of streamflow to projected climate change scenarios in an eastern Himalayan catchment of India

2016-04-01

Snowmelt run-off model (SRM) based on degree-day approach has been employed to evaluate the change in snow-cover depletion and corresponding streamflow under different projected climatic scenarios foran eastern Himalayan catchment in India. Nuranang catchment located at Tawang district of ArunachalPradesh with an area of 52 km^2 is selected for the present study with an elevation range of 3143–4946 mabove mean sea level. Satellite images from October to June of the selected hydrological year 2006–2007were procured from National Remote Sensing Centre, Hyderabad. Snow cover mapping is done usingNDSI method. Based on long term meteorological data, temperature and precipitation data of selectedhydrological year are normalized to represent present climatic condition. The projected temperatureand precipitation data are downloaded from NCAR’s GIS data portal for different emission scenarios(SRES), viz., A1B, A2, B1; and IPCC commitment (non-SRES) scenario for different future years (2020,2030, 2040 and 2050). Projected temperature and precipitation data are obtained at desired locationby spatially interpolating the gridded data and then by statistical downscaling using linear regression.Snow depletion curves for all projected scenarios are generated for the study area and compared withconventional depletion curve for present climatic condition. Changes in cumulative snowmelt depth fordifferent future years are highest under A1B and lowest under IPCC commitment, whereas A2 andB1 values are in-between A1B and IPCC commitment. Percentage increase in streamflow for differentfuture years follows almost the same trend as change in precipitation from present climate under allprojected climatic scenarios. Hence, it was concluded that for small catchments having seasonal snowcover, the total streamflow under projected climatic scenarios in future years will be primarily governedby the change in precipitation and not by change in snowmelt depth. Advancing of depletion curves

17. Flooding Capability for River-based Scenarios

Smith, Curtis L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Prescott, Steven [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Ryan, Emerald [Idaho State Univ., Pocatello, ID (United States); Calhoun, Donna [Boise State Univ., ID (United States); Sampath, Ramprasad [Centroid Labs., Los Angeles, CA (United States); Anderson, S. Danielle [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Casteneda, Cody [Boise State Univ., ID (United States)

2015-10-01

This report describes the initial investigation into modeling and simulation tools for application of riverine flooding representation as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluations. The report provides examples of different flooding conditions and scenarios that could impact river and watershed systems. Both 2D and 3D modeling approaches are described.

18. Wiki Based Collaborative Learning in Interuniversity Scenarios

Katzlinger, Elisabeth; Herzog, Michael A.

2014-01-01

In business education advanced collaboration skills and media literacy are important for surviving in a globalized business where virtual communication between enterprises is part of the day-by-day business. To transform these global working situations into higher education, a learning scenario between two universities in Germany and Austria was…

19. The scenario-based generalization of radiation therapy margins

Fredriksson, Albin

2015-01-01

We give a scenario-based treatment plan optimization formulation that is equivalent to planning with geometric margins if the scenario doses are calculated using the static dose cloud approximation. If the scenario doses are instead calculated more accurately, then our formulation provides a novel robust planning method that overcomes many of the difficulties associated with previous scenario-based robust planning methods. In particular, our method protects only against uncertainties that can occur in practice, it gives a sharp dose fall-off outside high dose regions, and it avoids underdosage of the target in ``easy'' scenarios. The method shares the benefits of the previous scenario-based robust planning methods over geometric margins for applications where the static dose cloud approximation is inaccurate, such as irradiation with few fields and irradiation with ion beams. These properties are demonstrated on a suite of phantom cases planned for treatment with scanned proton beams subject to systematic set...

20. Map-Based Channel Model for Urban Macrocell Propagation Scenarios

Jose F. Monserrat

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The evolution of LTE towards 5G has started and different research projects and institutions are in the process of verifying new technology components through simulations. Coordination between groups is strongly recommended and, in this sense, a common definition of test cases and simulation models is needed. The scope of this paper is to present a realistic channel model for urban macrocell scenarios. This model is map-based and takes into account the layout of buildings situated in the area under study. A detailed description of the model is given together with a comparison with other widely used channel models. The benchmark includes a measurement campaign in which the proposed model is shown to be much closer to the actual behavior of a cellular system. Particular attention is given to the outdoor component of the model, since it is here where the proposed approach is showing main difference with other previous models.

1. The Projection of Temperature and Precipitation over China under RCP Scenarios using a CMIP5 Multi-Model Ensemble

XU Chong-Hai; XU Ying

2012-01-01

Climate changes in 21st century China are described based on the projections of 11 climate models under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The results show that warming is expected in all regions of China under the RCP scenarios, with the northern regions showing greater warming than the southern regions. The warming tendency from 2011 to 2100 is 0.06°C/10 a for RCP2.6, 0.24°C/10 a for RCP4.5, and 0.63°C/10 a for RCP8.5. The projected time series of annual temperature have similar variation tendencies as the new greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenario pathways, and the warming under the lower emission scenarios is less than under the higher emission scenarios. The regional averaged precipitation will increase, and the increasing precipitation in the northern regions is significant and greater than in the southern regions in China. It is noted that precipitation will tend to decrease in the southern parts of China during the period of 2011–2040, especially under RCP8.5. Compared with the changes over the globe and some previous projections, the increased warming and precipitation over China is more remarkable under the higher emission scenarios. The uncertainties in the projection are unavoidable, and further analyses are necessary to develop a better understanding of the future changes over the region.

2. Model-based scenarios of Mediterranean droughts

M. Weiß

2007-11-01

Full Text Available This study examines the change in current 100-year hydrological drought frequencies in the Mediterranean in comparison to the 2070s as simulated by the global model WaterGAP. The analysis considers socio-economic and climate changes as indicated by the IPCC scenarios A2 and B2 and the global general circulation model ECHAM4. Under these conditions today's 100-year drought is estimated to occur 10 times more frequently in the future over a large part of the Northern Mediterranean while in North Africa, today's 100-year drought will occur less frequently. Water abstractions are shown to play a minor role in comparison to the impact of climate change, but can intensify the situation.

3. Modeling the Projected Changes of River Flow in Central Vietnam under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Tuan B. Le

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Recent studies by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC indicate that Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change. The variability of climate in this region, characterized by large fluctuations in precipitation and temperature, has caused significant changes in surface water resources. This study aims to project the impact of climate change on the seasonal availability of surface water of the Huong River in Central Vietnam in the twenty-first century through hydrologic simulations driven by climate model projections. To calibrate and validate the hydrologic model, the model was forced by the rain gage-based gridded Asian Precipitation–Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of water resources (APHRODITE V1003R1 Monsoon Asia precipitation data along with observed temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation data from local weather stations. The simulated discharge was compared to observations for the period from 1951 until present. Three Global Climate Models (GCMs ECHAM5-OM, HadCM3 and GFDL-CM2.1 integrated into Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG stochastic weather generator were run for three IPCC–Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC-SRES emissions scenarios A1B, A2, and B1 to simulate future climate conditions. The hydrologic model simulated the Huong River discharge for each IPCC-SRES scenario. Simulation results under the three GCMs generally indicate an increase in summer and fall river discharge during the twenty-first century in A2 and B1 scenarios. For A1B scenario, HadCM3 and GFDL-CM2.1 models project a decrease in river discharge from present to the 2051–2080 period and then increase until the 2071–2100 period while ECHAM5-OM model produces opposite projection that discharge will increase until the 2051–2080 period and then decrease for the rest of the century. Water management

4. Verifying real-time systems against scenario-based requirements

Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Li, Shuhao; Nielsen, Brian;

2009-01-01

subset of the LSC language. By equivalently translating an LSC chart into an observer TA and then non-intrusively composing this observer with the original system model, the problem of verifying a real-time system against a scenario-based requirement reduces to a classical real-time model checking......We propose an approach to automatic verification of real-time systems against scenario-based requirements. A real-time system is modeled as a network of Timed Automata (TA), and a scenario-based requirement is specified as a Live Sequence Chart (LSC). We define a trace-based semantics for a kernel...

5. Scenario Based E-Learning in Electrical Engineering Education

Tambunan, Hamonangan; Dalimunte, Amirhud; Silitonga, Marsangkap

2017-01-01

The scenario based e-learning in Electrical Engineering Education Learning (EEEL) was developed by covering the scope and characteristics of all subjects and the competence unit of graduates in the field of pedagogy, professional, social and personality, with url addresed http://jpte-ft-unimed.edu20.org. The scenario incorporates the concept of…

6. Western US Hydroclimate Scenarios Project Dynamically Downscaled Data

U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This archive contains daily dynamically downscaled climate projections and simulated land surface water and energy fluxes for the northwestern United States and part...

7. Western US Hydroclimate Scenarios Project Observations and Statistically Downscaled Data

U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This archive contains daily statistically downscaled climate projections and simulated land surface water and energy fluxes for the western United States and...

8. Uncertainty in greenhouse-gas emission scenario projections: Experiences from Mexico and South Africa

Puig, Daniel

This report outlines approaches to quantify the uncertainty associated with national greenhouse-gas emission scenario projections. It does so by describing practical applications of those approaches in two countries – Mexico and South Africa. The goal of the report is to promote uncertainty...... quantification, because quantifying uncertainty has the potential to foster more robust climate-change mitigation plans. To this end the report also summarises the rationale for quantifying uncertainty in greenhouse-gas emission scenario projections....

9. ShakeMap/Hazus Scenario Projects and Support for the New Madrid 2011 National Level Exercise

Bausch, D.

2011-12-01

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have coordinated on the development of new products that support an extensive library of ShakeMap scenarios, largely based on the USGS National Hazard Map sources of earthquakes that are supporting Hazards U.S. (HAZUS) loss estimations. These scenarios are used to support a broad range of emergency management activities, including mitigation, recovery and preparedness planning, as well as exercises for response. We have successfully documented where these scenarios have led to risk reduction actions. To date these have been implemented as pilot studies under the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (NEHRP) in Washington, Utah, Nevada and more recently in New England. As a result of these ShakeMap/HAZUS demonstration projects, we developed a Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) for producing standardized loss mapping templates. These maps and associated tables help translate earthquake loss information to support a broad range of emergency management activities. The SOP includes step by step instructions with standardized map templates, symbology and terminology, which was initiated in support of the New Madrid 2011 National Level Exercise. We developed enhancements to the integration of ShakeMap and Hazus based on the NLE scenarios that can be implemented for other scenarios, as well as real earthquake events. The NLE was especially challenging as 8 States were impacted. A new utility developed internally by FEMA (EQExport) greatly expedited the data flow by automatically exporting the SQL based results into compressed geodatabases, as well as implementing custom map templates, reports and Google Earth KML files. This free open source utility provides the basis for automating map and results production from the Hazus earthquake model. Another development for NLE was to display results data into FlexViewers both inside and outside of FEMA. We benefited from a new real

10. Advising students in technical projects - recognizing problem scenarios

Bærentzen, Jacob Andreas; Singh, Karan

2014-01-01

In this paper, we consider the advisor’s role during the technical work and the thesis preparation for a student in the final phase of a course of study in an engineering education. We initially claim that there is a marked difference between the learning that takes place in regular course work...... courses. The goal of this paper is to relate the authors’ experiences and investigations into the project advisory process and to provide recommendations for other engineering educators. After an initial discussion of a typical engineering project advisory process, we review a number of representative...

11. Projecting Global Biodiversity Indicators under Future Development Scenarios

Visconti, Piero; Bakkenes, Michel; Baisero, Daniele; Brooks, Thomas; Butchart, Stuart H.M.; Joppa, Lucas; Alkemade, Rob; Marco, Di Moreno; Santini, Luca; Hoffmann, Michael; Maiorano, Luigi; Pressey, Robert L.; Arponen, Anni; Boitani, Luigi; Reside, April E.; Vuuren, van Detlef P.; Rondinini, Carlo

2016-01-01

To address the ongoing global biodiversity crisis, governments have set strategic objectives and have adopted indicators to monitor progress toward their achievement. Projecting the likely impacts on biodiversity of different policy decisions allows decision makers to understand if and how these

12. Projecting Global Biodiversity Indicators under Future Development Scenarios

Visconti, Piero; Bakkenes, Michel; Baisero, Daniele; Brooks, Thomas; Butchart, Stuart H M; Joppa, Lucas; Alkemade, Rob; Di Marco, Moreno; Santini, Luca; Hoffmann, Michael; Maiorano, Luigi; Pressey, Robert L.; Arponen, Anni; Boitani, Luigi; Reside, April E.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Rondinini, Carlo

2016-01-01

To address the ongoing global biodiversity crisis, governments have set strategic objectives and have adopted indicators to monitor progress toward their achievement. Projecting the likely impacts on biodiversity of different policy decisions allows decision makers to understand if and how these

13. Evaluating adaptation options for urban flooding based on new high-end emission scenario regional climate model simulations

Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Leonardsen, L.; Madsen, Henrik

2015-01-01

a regional climate model projection forced to a global temperature increase of 6 degrees C in 2100 as well as a projection based on a high radiative forcing scenario (RCP8.5). With these scenarios, projected impacts of extreme precipitation increase significantly. For extreme sea surges, the impacts do......Climate change adaptation studies on urban flooding are often based on a model chain approach from climate forcing scenarios to analysis of adaptation measures. Previous analyses of climate change impacts in Copenhagen, Denmark, were supplemented by 2 high-end scenario simulations. These include...... to pluvial flooding that makes the urban areas more robust and reduces the risk of flooding under the current climate to a very low level. The reduction in flood risk for the A1B scenario is substantial (corresponding to 0.2-0.3 times the current EAD in 2100), and even in the high-end scenarios, the risk...

14. Terrestrial Sediment Yield Projection under the Bias-Corrected Nonstationary Scenarios with Hydrologic Extremes

Soojin Moon

2016-10-01

Full Text Available For reliable prediction of sediment yield in a watershed, fine-scale projections for hydro-climate components were first obtained using the statistical bias correction and downscaling scheme based on the combination of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN, Nonstationary Quantile Mapping (NSQM and Stochastic Typhoon Synthesis (STS sub-modules. Successively, the hydrologic runoff and sediment yield from the land surfaces were predicted through the long-term continuous watershed model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT, using the bias-corrected and downscaled Regional Climate Model (RCM output under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC’s A1B climate change scenario. The incremental improvement of the combined downscaling process was evaluated successfully during the baseline period, which provides projected confidence for the simulated future scenario. The realistic simulation of sediment yield is closely related to the rainfall event with high intensity and frequency. During the long-term future period, the Coefficient of River Regime (CORR reaches 353.9 (27.2% increase with respect to baseline. The projection for annual precipitation by 2040 and 2100 is a 25.7% and a 57.2% increase with respect to the baseline period, respectively. In particular, the increasing CORR rate (33.4% and 72.5% during the flood season is much higher than that for the annual total amount. However, the sediment yield is expected to increase by 27.4% and 121.2% during the same periods, which exhibits steeper trends than the hydrologic runoff. The June, July, August (JJA season occupies 83.0% annual total sediment yield during the baseline period, which is similar during the projection period. The relative change of sediment yield is 1.9-times higher than that of dam inflows.

15. A versatile method for groundwater vulnerability projections in future scenarios.

Stevenazzi, Stefania; Bonfanti, Marianna; Masetti, Marco; Nghiem, Son V; Sorichetta, Alessandro

2017-02-01

Water scarcity and associated risks are serious societal problems. A major challenge for the future will be to ensure the short-term and long-term provision of accessible and safe freshwater to meet the needs of the rapidly growing human population and changes in land cover and land use, where conservation and protection play a key role. Through a Bayesian spatial statistical method, a time-dependent approach for groundwater vulnerability assessment is developed to account for both the recent status of groundwater contamination and its evolution, as required by the European Union (Groundwater Directive, 2006/118/EC). This approach combines natural and anthropogenic factors to identify areas with a critical combination of high levels and increasing trends of nitrate concentrations, together with a quantitative evaluation of how different future scenarios would impact the quality of groundwater resources in a given area. In particular, the proposed approach can determine potential impacts on groundwater resources if policies are maintained at the status quo or if new measures are implemented for safeguarding groundwater quality, as natural factors are changing under climatic or anthropogenic stresses. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

16. Mangroves facing climate change: landward migration potential in response to projected scenarios of sea level rise

D. Di Nitto

2013-02-01

Full Text Available Mangrove forests prominently occupy an intertidal boundary position where the effects of sea level rise will be fast and well visible. This study in East Africa (Gazi Bay, Kenya addresses the question whether mangroves can be resilient to a rise in sea level by focusing on their potential to migrate towards landwards areas. The combinatory analysis between remote sensing, DGPS-based ground truth and digital terrain models (DTM unveils how real vegetation assemblages can shift under different projected (minimum (+9 cm, relative (+20 cm, average (+48 cm and maximum (+88 cm scenarios of sea level rise (SLR. Under SLR scenarios up to 48 cm by the year 2100, the landward extension remarkably implies an area increase for each of the dominant mangrove assemblages, except for Avicennia marina and Ceriops tagal, both on the landward side. On one hand, the increase of most species in the first 3 scenarios, including the socio-economically most important species in this area, Rhizophora mucronata and C. tagal on the seaward side, strongly depends on the colonisation rate of these species. On the other hand, a SLR scenario of +88 cm by the year 2100 indicates that the area flooded only by equinoctial tides strongly decreases due to the topographical settings at the edge of the inhabited area. Consequently, the landward Avicennia-dominated assemblages will further decrease as a formation if they fail to adapt to a more frequent inundation. The topography is site-specific; however non-invadable areas can be typical for many mangrove settings.

17. Projected changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells in a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario

Pascale, Salvatore; Lucarini, Valerio; Feng, Xue; Porporato, Amilcare; ul Hasson, Shabeh

2016-02-01

In this diagnostic study we analyze changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells by the end of the twenty-first century under the most extreme IPCC5 emission scenario (RCP8.5) as projected by twenty-four coupled climate models contributing to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). We use estimates of the centroid of the monthly rainfall distribution as an index of the rainfall timing and a threshold-independent, information theory-based quantity such as relative entropy (RE) to quantify the concentration of annual rainfall and the number of dry months and to build a monsoon dimensionless seasonality index (DSI). The RE is projected to increase, with high inter-model agreement over Mediterranean-type regions—southern Europe, northern Africa and southern Australia—and areas of South and Central America, implying an increase in the number of dry days up to 1 month by the end of the twenty-first century. Positive RE changes are also projected over the monsoon regions of southern Africa and North America, South America. These trends are consistent with a shortening of the wet season associated with a more prolonged pre-monsoonal dry period. The extent of the global monsoon region, characterized by large DSI, is projected to remain substantially unaltered. Centroid analysis shows that most of CMIP5 projections suggest that the monsoonal annual rainfall distribution is expected to change from early to late in the course of the hydrological year by the end of the twenty-first century and particularly after year 2050. This trend is particularly evident over northern Africa, southern Africa and western Mexico, where more than 90 % of the models project a delay of the rainfall centroid from a few days up to 2 weeks. Over the remaining monsoonal regions, there is little inter-model agreement in terms of centroid changes.

18. Usability standards meet scenario-based design: challenges and opportunities.

Vincent, Christopher J; Blandford, Ann

2015-02-01

The focus of this paper is on the challenges and opportunities presented by developing scenarios of use for interactive medical devices. Scenarios are integral to the international standard for usability engineering of medical devices (IEC 62366:2007), and are also applied to the development of health software (draft standard IEC 82304-1). The 62366 standard lays out a process for mitigating risk during normal use (i.e. use as per the instructions, or accepted medical practice). However, this begs the question of whether "real use" (that which occurs in practice) matches "normal use". In this paper, we present an overview of the product lifecycle and how it impacts on the type of scenario that can be practically applied. We report on the development and testing of a set of scenarios intended to inform the design of infusion pumps based on "real use". The scenarios were validated by researchers and practitioners experienced in clinical practice, and their utility was assessed by developers and practitioners representing different stages of the product lifecycle. These evaluations highlighted previously unreported challenges and opportunities for the use of scenarios in this context. Challenges include: integrating scenario-based design with usability engineering practice; covering the breadth of uses of infusion devices; and managing contradictory evidence. Opportunities included scenario use beyond design to guide marketing, to inform purchasing and as resources for training staff. This study exemplifies one empirically grounded approach to communicating and negotiating the realities of practice. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

19. Design Process of a Goal-Based Scenario on Computing Fundamentals

Beriswill, Joanne Elizabeth

2014-01-01

In this design case, an instructor developed a goal-based scenario (GBS) for undergraduate computer fundamentals students to apply their knowledge of computer equipment and software. The GBS, entitled the MegaTech Project, presented the students with descriptions of the everyday activities of four persons needing to purchase a computer system. The…

20. Scenario-based Storm Surge Vulnerability Assessment of Catanduanes

Suarez, J. K. B.

2015-12-01

After the devastating storm surge effect of Typhoon Haiyan, the public recognized an improved communication about risks, vulnerabilities and what is threatened by storm surge. This can be provided by vulnerability maps which allow better visual presentations and understanding of the risks and vulnerabilities. Local implementers can direct the resources needed for protection of these areas. Moreover, vulnerability and hazard maps are relevant in all phases of disaster management designed by the National Disaster Risk Reduction Council (NDRRMC) - disaster preparedness, prevention and mitigation and response and recovery and rehabilitation. This paper aims to analyze the vulnerability of Catanduanes, a coastal province in the Philippines, to storm surges in terms of four parameters: population, built environment, natural environment and agricultural production. The vulnerability study relies on the storm surge inundation maps based on the Department of Science and Technology Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards' (DOST-Project NOAH) proposed four Storm Surge Advisory (SSA) scenarios (1-2, 3, 4, and 5 meters) for predicting storm surge heights. To determine total percent affected for each parameter elements, an overlay analysis was performed in ArcGIS Desktop. Moreover, vulnerability and hazard maps are generated as a final output and a tool for visualizing the impacts of storm surge event at different surge heights. The result of this study would help the selected province to know their present condition and adapt strategies to strengthen areas where they are found to be most vulnerable in order to prepare better for the future.

1. Model Projections of East Asian Summer Climate under the'Free Arctic'Scenario

WANG Hui-Jun; ZHANG Ying

2010-01-01

This paper addresses the'ice-free Arctic'issue under the future global warming scenario.Four coupled climate models used in the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP3)were selected to project summer climate conditions over East Asia once the Arctic becomes ice-free.The models project that an ice-free Arctic summer will begin in the 2060s under the SRESA I B(according to IPCC Special Reports on Emissions Scenarios)simulations.Our results show that the East Asian summer monsoons will tend to be stronger and that the water vapor transport to central northern China will be strengthened,leading to increased summer precipitation in central northern China.The models also project an intensified Antarctic Oscillation,a condition which favors increased precipitation in South China's Yangtze River Valley.The overall precipitation in Northwest China is projected to increase under ice-free Arctic summer conditions.

2. Data Assimilation Techniques for Ionospheric Reference Scenarios - project overview and first results

Gerzen, Tatjana; Mainul Hoque, M.; Wilken, Volker; Minkwitz, David; Schlüter, Stefan

2015-04-01

The European Geostationary Navigation Overlay Service (EGNOS) is the European Satellite Based Augmentation Service (SBAS) that provides value added services, in particular to Safety of Live (SoL) users of the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). In the frame of the European GNSS Evolution Programme (EGEP), ESA has launched several activities, which are aiming to support the design, development and qualification of the future operational EGNOS infrastructure and associated services. The ionosphere is the part of the upper Earth's atmosphere between about 50 km and 1000 km above the Earth's surface, which contains sufficient free electrons to cause strong impact on radio signal propagation. Therefore, treatment of the ionosphere is a critical issue to guarantee the EGNOS system performance. In order to conduct the EGNOS end-to-end performance simulations and to assure the capability for maintaining integrity of the EGNOS system especially during ionospheric storm conditions, Ionospheric Reference Scenarios (IRSs) are introduced by ESA. The project Data Assimilation Techniques for Ionospheric Reference Scenarios (DAIS) - aims to generate improved EGNOS IRSs by combining space borne and ground based GNSS observations. The main focus of this project is to demonstrate that ionospheric radio occultation (IRO) measurements can significantly contribute to fill data gaps in GNSS ground networks (particularly in Africa and over the oceans) when generating the IRSs. The primary tasks are the calculation and validation of time series of IRSs (i.e. TEC maps) by a 3D assimilation approach that combines IRO and ground based GNSS measurements with an ionospheric background model in an optimal way. In the first phase of the project we selected appropriate test periods, one presenting perturbed and the other one - nominal ionospheric conditions, collected and filtered the corresponding data. We defined and developed an applicable technique for the 3D assimilation and applied

3. National, regional, and global levels and trends in maternal mortality between 1990 and 2015 with scenario-based projections to 2030: a systematic analysis by the United Nations Maternal Mortality Estimation Inter-Agency Group

Alkema, Leontine; Chou, Doris; Hogan, Daniel; Zhang, Sanqian; Moller, Ann-Beth; Gemmill, Alison; Fat, Doris Ma; Boerma, Ties; Temmerman, Marleen; Mathers, Colin; Say, Lale; Ahmed, Saifuddin; Ali, Mohamed; Amouzou, Agbessi; Braunholtz, David; Byass, Peter; Carvajal-Velez, Liliana; Gaigbe-Togbe, Victor; Gerland, Patrick; Loaiza, Edilberto; Mills, Samuel; Mutombo, Namuunda; Newby, Holly; Pullum, Thomas W.; Suzuki, Emi

2017-01-01

Summary Background Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 5 calls for a reduction of 75% in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) between 1990 and 2015. We estimated levels and trends in maternal mortality for 183 countries to assess progress made. Based on MMR estimates for 2015, we constructed scenario-based projections to highlight the accelerations needed to accomplish the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) global target of less than 70 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births globally by 2030. Methods We updated the open access UN Maternal Mortality Estimation Inter-agency Group (MMEIG) database. Based upon nationally-representative data for 171 countries, we generated estimates of maternal mortality and related indicators with uncertainty intervals using a Bayesian model, which extends and refines the previous UN MMEIG estimation approach. The model combines the rate of change implied by a multilevel regression model with a time series model to capture data-driven changes in country-specific MMRs, and includes a data model to adjust for systematic and random errors associated with different data sources. Results The global MMR declined from 385 deaths per 100,000 live births (80% uncertainty interval ranges from 359 to 427) in 1990 to 216 (207 to 249) in 2015, corresponding to a relative decline of 43.9% (34.0 to 48.7) during the 25-year period, with 303,000 (291,000 to 349,000) maternal deaths globally in 2015. Regional progress in reducing the MMR since 1990 ranged from an annual rate of reduction of 1.8% (0 to 3.1) in the Caribbean to 5.0% (4.0 to 6.0) for Eastern Asia. Regional MMRs for 2015 range from 12 (11 to 14) for developed regions to 546 (511 to 652) for sub-Saharan Africa. Accelerated progress will be needed to achieve the SDG goal; countries will need to reduce their MMRs at an annual rate of reduction of at least 7.5%. Interpretation Despite global progress in reducing maternal mortality, immediate action is required to begin making progress towards the

4. Divergent projections of future land use in the United States arising from different models and scenarios

Sohl, Terry L.; Wimberly, Michael; Radeloff, Volker C.; Theobald, David M.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.

2016-01-01

A variety of land-use and land-cover (LULC) models operating at scales from local to global have been developed in recent years, including a number of models that provide spatially explicit, multi-class LULC projections for the conterminous United States. This diversity of modeling approaches raises the question: how consistent are their projections of future land use? We compared projections from six LULC modeling applications for the United States and assessed quantitative, spatial, and conceptual inconsistencies. Each set of projections provided multiple scenarios covering a period from roughly 2000 to 2050. Given the unique spatial, thematic, and temporal characteristics of each set of projections, individual projections were aggregated to a common set of basic, generalized LULC classes (i.e., cropland, pasture, forest, range, and urban) and summarized at the county level across the conterminous United States. We found very little agreement in projected future LULC trends and patterns among the different models. Variability among scenarios for a given model was generally lower than variability among different models, in terms of both trends in the amounts of basic LULC classes and their projected spatial patterns. Even when different models assessed the same purported scenario, model projections varied substantially. Projections of agricultural trends were often far above the maximum historical amounts, raising concerns about the realism of the projections. Comparisons among models were hindered by major discrepancies in categorical definitions, and suggest a need for standardization of historical LULC data sources. To capture a broader range of uncertainties, ensemble modeling approaches are also recommended. However, the vast inconsistencies among LULC models raise questions about the theoretical and conceptual underpinnings of current modeling approaches. Given the substantial effects that land-use change can have on ecological and societal processes, there

5. Fast scenario-based design space exploration using feature selection

van Stralen, P.; Pimentel, A.; Mühl, G.; Richling, J.; Herkersdorf, A.

2012-01-01

This paper presents a novel approach to efficiently perform early system level design space exploration (DSE) of MultiProcessor System-on-Chip (MPSoC) based embedded systems. By modeling dynamic multi-application workloads using application scenarios, optimal designs can be quickly identified using

6. Data Assimilation Techniques for Ionospheric Reference Scenarios - project overview and achieved outcomes

Gerzen, Tatjana; Wilken, Volker; Hoque, Mainul; Minkwitz, David; Schlueter, Stefan

2016-04-01

The ionosphere is the upper part of the Earth's atmosphere, where sufficient free electrons exist to affect the propagation of radio waves. Therefore, the treatment of the ionosphere is a critical issue for many applications dealing with trans-ionospheric signals such as GNSS positioning, GNSS related augmentation systems (e.g. EGNOS and WAAS) and remote sensing. The European Geostationary Navigation Overlay Service (EGNOS) is the European Satellite Based Augmentation Service (SBAS) that provides value added services, in particular to safety critical GNSS applications, e.g. aviation and maritime traffic. In the frame of the European GNSS Evolution Programme (EGEP), ESA has launched several activities, supporting the design, development and qualification of the operational EGNOS infrastructure and associated services. Ionospheric Reference Scenarios (IRSs) are used by ESA in order to conduct the EGNOS performance simulations and to assure the capability for maintaining accuracy, integrity and availability of the EGNOS system, especially during ionospheric storm conditions. The project Data Assimilation Techniques for Ionospheric Reference Scenarios (DAIS) - aims the provision of improved EGNOS IRSs. The main tasks are the calculation and validation of time series of IRSs by a 3D assimilation approach that combines space borne and ground based GNSS observations as well as ionosonde measurements with an ionospheric background model. The special focus thereby is to demonstrate that space-based measurements can significantly contribute to fill data gaps in GNSS ground networks (particularly in Africa and over the oceans) when generating the IRSs. In this project we selected test periods of perturbed and nominal ionospheric conditions and filtered the collected data for outliers. We defined and developed an applicable technique for the 3D assimilation and applied this technique for the generation of IRSs covering the EGNOS V3 extended service area. Afterwards the

7. Model-based Evaluation of Location-based Relaying Policies in a Realistic Mobile Indoor Scenario

Nielsen, Jimmy Jessen; Olsen, Rasmus Løvenstein; Madsen, Tatiana Kozlova

2012-01-01

developed Markov Chain model for a realistic indoor scenario that is based on ray-tracing enriched measurements from the WHERE2 project. These results are furthermore compared to results obtained using an idealistic path loss model, and it is shown that the performance impact of node mobility......For WLAN systems in which relaying is exploited for improving throughput performance, node mobility and in- formation collection delays can have a significant impact on the performance of a relay selection scheme. This paper analyzes this influence on the decision process using a previously...... and information collection delays is significantly different for the two data sets....

8. SAFRR AND Physics-Based Scenarios: The Power of Scientifically Credible Stories

Cox, D. A.; Jones, L.

2015-12-01

USGS's SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Project and its predecessor, the Multi Hazards Demonstration Project, uses the latest earth science to develop scenarios so that communities can improve disaster resilience. SAFRR has created detailed physics-based natural-disaster scenarios of a M7.8 San Andreas earthquake in southern California (ShakeOut), atmospheric-river storms rivaling the Great California Flood of 1862 (ARkStorm), a Tohoku-sized earthquake and tsunami in the eastern Aleutians (SAFRR Tsunami), and now a M7.05 quake on the Hayward Fault in the San Francisco Bay area (HayWired), as novel ways of providing science for decision making. Each scenario is scientifically plausible, deterministic, and large enough to demand attention but not too large to be believable. The scenarios address interacting hazards, requiring involvement of multiple science disciplines and user communities. The scenarios routinely expose hitherto unknown or ignored vulnerabilities, most often in cascading effects missed when impacts are considered in isolation. They take advantage of story telling to provide decision makers with clear explanations and justifications for mitigation and preparedness actions, and have been used for national-to-local disaster response exercises and planning. Effectiveness is further leveraged by downscaling the scenarios to local levels. For example, although the ARkStorm scenario describes state-scale events and has been used that way by NASA and the Navy, SAFRR also partnered with FEMA to focus on two local areas, Ventura County in the coastal plain and the mountain setting of Lake Tahoe with downstream impacts in Reno, Sparks and Carson City. Downscaling and focused analyses increased usefulness to user communities, drawing new participants into the study. SAFRR scenarios have also motivated new research to answer questions uncovered by stakeholders, closing the circle of co-evolving disaster-science and disaster-response improvements.

9. Scenario-based Participatory Design for Pervasive Computing

LIU Zhi-qiang; DING Peng; SHENG Huan-ye

2007-01-01

Lots of pervasive computing researchers are working on how to realize the user-centered intelligent pervasive computing environment as Mark Weiser figured out. Task abstraction is the fundamentation of configuration for pervasive application. Based on task-oriented and descriptive properties of scenario, a scenario-based participatory design model was proposed to realize the task abstraction. The design model provided users and domain experts a useful mechanism to build the customized applications by separating system model into domain model and design model. In this design model, domain experts, together with users, stakeholders focus on the logic rules (domain model) and programmers work on the implementation (design model). In order to formalize the model description, a human-agent interaction language to transform users' goals and domain rules into executable scenarios was also discussed. An agent platform - describer used to link design and implementation of scenarios was developed to realize the configuration of applications according to different requirements. The demand bus application showed the design process and the usability of this model.

10. Conjunctive management of surface and groundwater resources under projected future climate change scenarios

Mani, Amir; Tsai, Frank T.-C.; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Naz, Bibi S.; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha

2016-09-01

This study introduces a mixed integer linear fractional programming (MILFP) method to optimize conjunctive use of future surface water and groundwater resources under projected climate change scenarios. The conjunctive management model maximizes the ratio of groundwater usage to reservoir water usage. Future inflows to the reservoirs were estimated from the future runoffs projected through hydroclimate modeling considering the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, and 11 sets of downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 global climate model projections. Bayesian model averaging was adopted to quantify uncertainty in future runoff projections and reservoir inflow projections due to uncertain future climate projections. Optimized conjunctive management solutions were investigated for a water supply network in northern Louisiana which includes the Sparta aquifer. Runoff projections under climate change scenarios indicate that runoff will likely decrease in winter and increase in other seasons. Results from the developed conjunctive management model with MILFP indicate that the future reservoir water, even at 2.5% low inflow cumulative probability level, could counterbalance groundwater pumping reduction to satisfy demands while improving the Sparta aquifer through conditional groundwater head constraints.

11. Base Station Antenna Pattern Distortion in Practical Urban Deployment Scenarios

Rodriguez Larrad, Ignacio; Nguyen, Huan Cong; Sørensen, Troels Bundgaard

2014-01-01

In real urban deployments, base station antennas are typically not placed in free space conditions. Therefore, the radiation pattern can be affected by mounting structures and nearby obstacles located in the proximity of the antenna (near-field), which are often not taken into consideration. Also...... the intrinsic propagation mechanisms of the urban environment (far-field) can contribute to the distortion of the radiation pattern observed in a practical deployment scenario, especially when comparing it to the antenna pattern provided by the manufacturer and typically measured in free space. This paper...... presents a combination of near-field and far-field simulations aimed to provide an overview of the distortion experienced by the base station antenna pattern in two different urban deployment scenarios: rooftop and telecommunications tower. The study illustrates how, in comparison with the near...

12. Benefits of Scenario-based Learning in university education

Elliott-Kingston, Caroline; Doyle, Owen P. E.; Hunter, Alan

2016-01-01

As an applied science, horticulture is particularly suited to interactive teaching and learning methods.  Much of the undergraduate learning in horticulture is passive; therefore, more active learning strategies should be introduced. One such active learning technique is scenario-based learning (SBL).  This form of learning allows students to apply academic knowledge to a simulated 'real-life' situation.  It is particularly suited to promoting group participation and learning.  Its use provid...

13. Mortality estimation based on Business as Usual Scenario

Pozzer, Andrea; Lelieveld, Jos; Barlas, Ceren

2013-04-01

Air pollution by fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) has increased strongly with industrialization and urbanization. Epidemiological studies have shown that these pollutants increase lung cancer, cardiopulmonary and respiratory mortality. The atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC has been used to estimate the concentration of such pollutants in recent and future years (2005, 2010, 2025 and 2050), based on a Business as Usual scenario. The emission scenario assumes that population and economic growth largely determine energy consumption and consequent pollution sources ("business as usual"). Based on the modeled pollutants concentrations and the UN estimates of population growth in the future, we assessed the premature mortality and the years of human life lost (YLL) caused by anthropogenic PM2.5 and O3 for epidemiological regions defined by the World Health Organization. The premature mortality for people of 30 years and older were estimated using a health impact function using parameters derived from epidemiological studies. Our results suggest that with a Business as Usual scenario, the ratio between mortality and population would increase of ~ 50% by 2050. This ratio, together with the increase of world population, would lead by the year 2050 to 8.9 millions premature deaths, equivalent to 79 millions of YYL.

14. Contributions to uncertainty in projections of future drought under climate change scenarios

I. H. Taylor

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Drought is a cumulative event, often difficult to define and involving wide reaching consequences for agriculture, ecosystems, water availability, and society. Understanding how the occurrence of drought may change in the future and which sources of uncertainty are dominant can inform appropriate decisions to guide drought impacts assessments. Uncertainties in future projections of drought arise from several sources and our aim is to understand how these sources of uncertainty contribute to future projections of drought. We consider four sources of uncertainty; climate model uncertainty associated with future climate projections, future emissions of greenhouse gases (future scenario uncertainty, type of drought (drought index uncertainty and drought event definition (threshold uncertainty. Three drought indices (the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI, Soil Moisture Anomaly (SMA and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI are calculated for the A1B and RCP2.6 future emissions scenarios using monthly model output from a 57 member perturbed parameter ensemble of climate simulations of the HadCM3C Earth system model, for the baseline period, 1961–1990, and the period 2070–2099 (representing the 2080s. We consider where there are significant increases or decreases in the proportion of time spent in drought in the 2080s compared to the baseline and compare the effects from the four sources of uncertainty. Our results suggest that, of the included uncertainty sources, choice of drought index is the most important factor influencing uncertainty in future projections of drought (60%–85% of total included uncertainty. There is a greater range of uncertainty between drought indices than that between the mitigation scenario RCP2.6 and the A1B emissions scenario (5%–6% in the 2050s to 17%–18% in the 2080s and across the different model variants in the ensemble (9%–17%. Choice of drought threshold has the least influence on uncertainty in future

15. Scenario simulation based assessment of subsurface energy storage

Beyer, C.; Bauer, S.; Dahmke, A.

2014-12-01

Energy production from renewable sources such as solar or wind power is characterized by temporally varying power supply. The politically intended transition towards renewable energies in Germany („Energiewende") hence requires the installation of energy storage technologies to compensate for the fluctuating production. In this context, subsurface energy storage represents a viable option due to large potential storage capacities and the wide prevalence of suited geological formations. Technologies for subsurface energy storage comprise cavern or deep porous media storage of synthetic hydrogen or methane from electrolysis and methanization, or compressed air, as well as heat storage in shallow or moderately deep porous formations. Pressure build-up, fluid displacement or temperature changes induced by such operations may affect local and regional groundwater flow, geomechanical behavior, groundwater geochemistry and microbiology. Moreover, subsurface energy storage may interact and possibly be in conflict with other "uses" like drinking water abstraction or ecological goods and functions. An utilization of the subsurface for energy storage therefore requires an adequate system and process understanding for the evaluation and assessment of possible impacts of specific storage operations on other types of subsurface use, the affected environment and protected entities. This contribution presents the framework of the ANGUS+ project, in which tools and methods are developed for these types of assessments. Synthetic but still realistic scenarios of geological energy storage are derived and parameterized for representative North German storage sites by data acquisition and evaluation, and experimental work. Coupled numerical hydraulic, thermal, mechanical and reactive transport (THMC) simulation tools are developed and applied to simulate the energy storage and subsurface usage scenarios, which are analyzed for an assessment and generalization of the imposed THMC

16. Integrated Modeling and Participatory Scenario Planning for Climate Adaptation: the Maui Groundwater Project

Keener, V. W.; Finucane, M.; Brewington, L.

2014-12-01

For the last century, the island of Maui, Hawaii, has been the center of environmental, agricultural, and legal conflict with respect to surface and groundwater allocation. Planning for adequate future freshwater resources requires flexible and adaptive policies that emphasize partnerships and knowledge transfer between scientists and non-scientists. In 2012 the Hawai'i state legislature passed the Climate Change Adaptation Priority Guidelines (Act 286) law requiring county and state policy makers to include island-wide climate change scenarios in their planning processes. This research details the ongoing work by researchers in the NOAA funded Pacific RISA to support the development of Hawaii's first island-wide water use plan under the new climate adaptation directive. This integrated project combines several models with participatory future scenario planning. The dynamically downscaled triply nested Hawaii Regional Climate Model (HRCM) was modified from the WRF community model and calibrated to simulate the many microclimates on the Hawaiian archipelago. For the island of Maui, the HRCM was validated using 20 years of hindcast data, and daily projections were created at a 1 km scale to capture the steep topography and diverse rainfall regimes. Downscaled climate data are input into a USGS hydrological model to quantify groundwater recharge. This model was previously used for groundwater management, and is being expanded utilizing future climate projections, current land use maps and future scenario maps informed by stakeholder input. Participatory scenario planning began in 2012 to bring together a diverse group of over 50 decision-makers in government, conservation, and agriculture to 1) determine the type of information they would find helpful in planning for climate change, and 2) develop a set of scenarios that represent alternative climate/management futures. This is an iterative process, resulting in flexible and transparent narratives at multiple scales

17. Partitioning uncertainty in ocean carbon uptake projections: Internal variability, emission scenario, and model structure

Lovenduski, Nicole S.; McKinley, Galen A.; Fay, Amanda R.; Lindsay, Keith; Long, Matthew C.

2016-09-01

We quantify and isolate the sources of projection uncertainty in annual-mean sea-air CO2 flux over the period 2006-2080 on global and regional scales using output from two sets of ensembles with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and models participating in the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). For annual-mean, globally-integrated sea-air CO2 flux, uncertainty grows with prediction lead time and is primarily attributed to uncertainty in emission scenario. At the regional scale of the California Current System, we observe relatively high uncertainty that is nearly constant for all prediction lead times, and is dominated by internal climate variability and model structure, respectively in the CESM and CMIP5 model suites. Analysis of CO2 flux projections over 17 biogeographical biomes reveals a spatially heterogenous pattern of projection uncertainty. On the biome scale, uncertainty is driven by a combination of internal climate variability and model structure, with emission scenario emerging as the dominant source for long projection lead times in both modeling suites.

18. Scenario-based fitted Q-iteration for adaptive control of water reservoir systems under uncertainty

Bertoni, Federica; Giuliani, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea

2017-04-01

Over recent years, mathematical models have largely been used to support planning and management of water resources systems. Yet, the increasing uncertainties in their inputs - due to increased variability in the hydrological regimes - are a major challenge to the optimal operations of these systems. Such uncertainty, boosted by projected changing climate, violates the stationarity principle generally used for describing hydro-meteorological processes, which assumes time persisting statistical characteristics of a given variable as inferred by historical data. As this principle is unlikely to be valid in the future, the probability density function used for modeling stochastic disturbances (e.g., inflows) becomes an additional uncertain parameter of the problem, which can be described in a deterministic and set-membership based fashion. This study contributes a novel method for designing optimal, adaptive policies for controlling water reservoir systems under climate-related uncertainty. The proposed method, called scenario-based Fitted Q-Iteration (sFQI), extends the original Fitted Q-Iteration algorithm by enlarging the state space to include the space of the uncertain system's parameters (i.e., the uncertain climate scenarios). As a result, sFQI embeds the set-membership uncertainty of the future inflow scenarios in the action-value function and is able to approximate, with a single learning process, the optimal control policy associated to any scenario included in the uncertainty set. The method is demonstrated on a synthetic water system, consisting of a regulated lake operated for ensuring reliable water supply to downstream users. Numerical results show that the sFQI algorithm successfully identifies adaptive solutions to operate the system under different inflow scenarios, which outperform the control policy designed under historical conditions. Moreover, the sFQI policy generalizes over inflow scenarios not directly experienced during the policy design

19. Projecting the impacts of rising seawater temperatures on the distribution of seaweeds around Japan under multiple climate change scenarios.

Takao, Shintaro; Kumagai, Naoki H; Yamano, Hiroya; Fujii, Masahiko; Yamanaka, Yasuhiro

2015-01-01

Seaweed beds play a key role in providing essential habitats and energy to coastal areas, with enhancements in productivity and biodiversity and benefits to human societies. However, the spatial extent of seaweed beds around Japan has decreased due to coastal reclamation, water quality changes, rising water temperatures, and heavy grazing by herbivores. Using monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST) data from 1960 to 2099 and SST-based indices, we quantitatively evaluated the effects of warming seawater on the spatial extent of suitable versus unsuitable habitats for temperate seaweed Ecklonia cava, which is predominantly found in southern Japanese waters. SST data were generated using the most recent multiple climate projection models and emission scenarios (the Representative Concentration Pathways or RCPs) used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). In addition, grazing by Siganus fuscescens, an herbivorous fish, was evaluated under the four RCP simulations. Our results suggest that continued warming may drive a poleward shift in the distribution of E. cava, with large differences depending on the climate scenario. For the lowest emission scenario (RCP2.6), most existing E. cava populations would not be impacted by seawater warming directly but would be adversely affected by intensified year-round grazing. For the highest emission scenario (RCP8.5), previously suitable habitats throughout coastal Japan would become untenable for E. cava by the 2090s, due to both high-temperature stress and intensified grazing. Our projections highlight the importance of not only mitigating regional warming due to climate change, but also protecting E. cava from herbivores to conserve suitable habitats on the Japanese coast.

20. Focus on the Future of Vocational Education & Training: Scenario Planning Project. An ANTA National Project.

Johnston, Ron

The future of vocational education and training (VET) in Australia was explored in a project that was designed to identify emerging issues in VET, identify challenges and opportunities for strategic thinking about the future of VET, and establish a basis for ongoing consideration of strategic issues. The major project activities were as follows:…

1. THE SCENARIOS APPROACH TO ATTENUATION-BASED REMEDIES FOR INORGANIC AND RADIONUCLIDE CONTAMINANTS

Vangelas, K.; Rysz, M.; Truex, M.; Brady, P.; Newell, C.; Denham, M.

2011-08-04

Guidance materials based on use of conceptual model scenarios were developed to assist evaluation and implementation of attenuation-based remedies for groundwater and vadose zones contaminated with inorganic and radionuclide contaminants. The Scenarios approach is intended to complement the comprehensive information provided in the US EPA's Technical Protocol for Monitored Natural Attenuation (MNA) of Inorganic Contaminants by providing additional information on site conceptual models and extending the evaluation to consideration of Enhanced Attenuation approaches. The conceptual models incorporate the notion of reactive facies, defined as units with hydrogeochemical properties that are different from surrounding units and that react with contaminants in distinct ways. The conceptual models also incorporate consideration of biogeochemical gradients, defined as boundaries between different geochemical conditions that have been induced by waste disposal or other natural phenomena. Gradients can change over time when geochemical conditions from one area migrate into another, potentially affecting contaminant mobility. A recognition of gradients allows the attenuation-affecting conditions of a site to be projected into the future. The Scenarios approach provides a stepwise process to identify an appropriate category of conceptual model and refine it for a specific site. Scenario materials provide links to pertinent sections in the EPA technical protocol and present information about contaminant mobility and important controlling mechanism for attenuation-based remedies based on the categories of conceptual models.

2. PERSPECTIVE: REDD pilot project scenarios: are costs and benefits altered by spatial scale?

Carlson, Kimberly M.; Curran, Lisa M.

2009-09-01

(e.g., provinces/states), what factors constrain effective implementation? First, high transaction costs and investment risks appear to be major barriers to establishing carbon concessions across large, heterogeneous regions. Identifying who should receive compensation as well as negotiating transparent and effective payment arrangements, is at best challenging especially with ambiguous land use rights and government jurisdiction in Indonesia (Ebeling and Yasué 2008). Protecting fragmented forests from multiple threats of logging, agriculture, and fire is fraught with complexities; who should be held accountable for defending 65 000 km2 from fire especially during ENSO- associated droughts (Siegert et al 2001, Langner and Siegert 2008)? REDD's effectiveness will require support from people who live in and near REDD projects; Gaveau et al address only biodiversity and forest loss in their paper, but incorporating the potential effects of REDD programs on livelihoods and social dynamics is one of the most critical components of effective assessments via scenario-building and modeling (Soares-Filho et al 2006). Another major obstacle to establishing REDD across large regions is the opportunity costs of carbon concessions. Recent estimates show that profits from protecting aboveground biomass for carbon payments in Indonesian non-peat forests are far below the benefits garnered from converting these forests to plantation agriculture (Butler et al 2009). Yet in order to mitigate forest conversion as proposed by Gaveau et al, carbon must compete with alternative high-value commodities (e.g., palm oil). Although forest carbon credits currently are traded in voluntary markets, carbon prices are considerably higher in compliance markets than in voluntary markets (World Bank 2008). If the UNFCCC generates consensus in December 2009 incorporating REDD in formal market-based trading mechanisms to meet compliance targets, REDD may become a financially competitive land use option

3. Scenario-based teaching in undergraduate medical education

Patel K

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Kunj Patel, Omar El Tokhy Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, London, UKWe read with great interest the study by Frost et al1 which highlights the importance of scenario-based teaching (SBT of clinical communication in medical undergraduate pediatrics teaching. SBT involves students navigating a storyline based around a complex problem, running in parallel with case-based learning. We were impressed by the results of the SBT program at Cardiff University School of Medicine. As medical students currently on our pediatric rotation at Imperial College London, we have experienced at first hand the benefits of SBT. Throughout the placement, it continues to help us tackle the complexities which arise when communicating with children and their families. We have noted its particular benefit in breaking bad news to families. Without effective teaching on this particular scenario, a failure to grasp this skill could exacerbate patient and parent concerns. Much like the authors of this study highlight,1 we believe specific teaching on communication skills should be a mandatory part of medical undergraduate education at every institution. Imperial College School of Medicine has developed a similar teaching style which has been unparalleled in its benefit to us during our pediatric rotation. Although there is scant literature available specifically addressing communicating with children and parents at undergraduate level, the use of SBT throughout undergraduate medical teaching should not be underestimated. Read the original paper by Frost et al

4. Future scenarios for viticultural zoning in Europe: ensemble projections and uncertainties

Fraga, H.; Malheiro, A. C.; Moutinho-Pereira, J.; Santos, J. A.

2013-11-01

Optimum climate conditions for grapevine growth are limited geographically and may be further challenged by a changing climate. Due to the importance of the winemaking sector in Europe, the assessment of future scenarios for European viticulture is of foremost relevance. A 16-member ensemble of model transient experiments (generated by the ENSEMBLES project) under a greenhouse gas emission scenario and for two future periods (2011-2040 and 2041-2070) is used in assessing climate change projections for six viticultural zoning indices. After model data calibration/validation using an observational gridded daily dataset, changes in their ensemble means and inter-annual variability are discussed, also taking into account the model uncertainties. Over southern Europe, the projected warming combined with severe dryness in the growing season is expected to have detrimental impacts on the grapevine development and wine quality, requiring measures to cope with heat and water stress. Furthermore, the expected warming and the maintenance of moderately wet growing seasons over most of the central European winemaking regions may require a selection of new grapevine varieties, as well as an enhancement of pest/disease control. New winemaking regions may arise over northern Europe and high altitude areas, when considering climatic factors only. An enhanced inter-annual variability is also projected over most of Europe. All these future changes pose new challenges for the European winemaking sector.

5. Future scenarios for viticultural zoning in Europe: ensemble projections and uncertainties.

Fraga, H; Malheiro, A C; Moutinho-Pereira, J; Santos, J A

2013-11-01

Optimum climate conditions for grapevine growth are limited geographically and may be further challenged by a changing climate. Due to the importance of the winemaking sector in Europe, the assessment of future scenarios for European viticulture is of foremost relevance. A 16-member ensemble of model transient experiments (generated by the ENSEMBLES project) under a greenhouse gas emission scenario and for two future periods (2011-2040 and 2041-2070) is used in assessing climate change projections for six viticultural zoning indices. After model data calibration/validation using an observational gridded daily dataset, changes in their ensemble means and inter-annual variability are discussed, also taking into account the model uncertainties. Over southern Europe, the projected warming combined with severe dryness in the growing season is expected to have detrimental impacts on the grapevine development and wine quality, requiring measures to cope with heat and water stress. Furthermore, the expected warming and the maintenance of moderately wet growing seasons over most of the central European winemaking regions may require a selection of new grapevine varieties, as well as an enhancement of pest/disease control. New winemaking regions may arise over northern Europe and high altitude areas, when considering climatic factors only. An enhanced inter-annual variability is also projected over most of Europe. All these future changes pose new challenges for the European winemaking sector.

6. Process-based evaluation of the ÖKS15 Austrian climate scenarios: First results

Mendlik, Thomas; Truhetz, Heimo; Jury, Martin; Maraun, Douglas

2017-04-01

The climate scenarios for Austria from the ÖKS15 project consists of 13 downscaled and bias-corrected RCMs from the EURO-CORDEX project. This dataset is meant for the broad public and is now available at the central national archive for climate data (CCCA Data Center). Because of this huge public outreach it is absolutely necessary to objectively discuss the limitations of this dataset and to publish these limitations, which should also be understood by a non-scientific audience. Even though systematical climatological biases have been accounted for by the Scaled-Distribution-Mapping (SDM) bias-correction method, it is not guaranteed that the model biases have been removed for the right reasons. If climate scenarios do not get the patterns of synoptic variability right, biases will still prevail in certain weather patterns. Ultimately this will have consequences for the projected climate change signals. In this study we derive typical weather types in the Alpine Region based on patterns from mean sea level pressure from ERA-INTERIM data and check the occurrence of these synoptic phenomena in EURO-CORDEX data and their corresponding driving GCMs. Based on these weather patterns we analyze the remaining biases of the downscaled and bias-corrected scenarios. We argue that such a process-based evaluation is not only necessary from a scientific point of view, but can also help the broader public to understand the limitations of downscaled climate scenarios, as model errors can be interpreted in terms of everyday observable weather.

7. Beyond scenario planning: projecting the future using models at Wind Cave National Park (USA)

King, D. A.; Bachelet, D. M.; Symstad, A. J.

2011-12-01

Scenario planning has been used by the National Park Service as a tool for natural resource management planning in the face of climate change. Sets of plausible but divergent future scenarios are constructed from available information and expert opinion and serve as starting point to derive climate-smart management strategies. However, qualitative hypotheses about how systems would react to a particular set of conditions assumed from coarse scale climate projections may lack the scientific rigor expected from a federal agency. In an effort to better assess the range of likely futures at Wind Cave National Park, a project was conceived to 1) generate high resolution historic and future climate time series to identify local weather patterns that may or may not persist, 2) simulate the hydrological cycle in this geologically varied landscape and its response to future climate, 3) project vegetation dynamics and ensuing changes in the biogeochemical cycles given grazing and fire disturbances under new climate conditions, and 4) synthesize and compare results with those from the scenario planning exercise. In this framework, we tested a dynamic global vegetation model against local information on vegetation cover, disturbance history and stream flow to better understand the potential resilience of these ecosystems to climate change. We discuss the tradeoffs between a coarse scale application of the model showing regional trends with limited ability to project the fine scale mosaic of vegetation at Wind Cave, and a finer scale approach that can account for local slope effects on water balance and better assess the vulnerability of landscape facets, but requires more intensive data acquisition. We elaborate on the potential for sharing information between models to mitigate the often-limited treatment of biological feedbacks in the physical representations of soil and atmospheric processes.

8. Projected future distributions of vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in North America under climate change scenarios.

Miroslava Garza

2014-05-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Chagas disease kills approximately 45 thousand people annually and affects 10 million people in Latin America and the southern United States. The parasite that causes the disease, Trypanosoma cruzi, can be transmitted by insects of the family Reduviidae, subfamily Triatominae. Any study that attempts to evaluate risk for Chagas disease must focus on the ecology and biogeography of these vectors. Expected distributional shifts of vector species due to climate change are likely to alter spatial patterns of risk of Chagas disease, presumably through northward expansion of high risk areas in North America. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We forecast the future (2050 distributions in North America of Triatoma gerstaeckeri and T. sanguisuga, two of the most common triatomine species and important vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in the southern United States. Our aim was to analyze how climate change might affect the future shift of Chagas disease in North America using a maximum entropy algorithm to predict changes in suitable habitat based on vector occurrence points and predictive environmental variables. Projections based on three different general circulation models (CCCMA, CSIRO, and HADCM3 and two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B2 were analyzed. Twenty models were developed for each case and evaluated via cross-validation. The final model averages result from all twenty of these models. All models had AUC >0.90, which indicates that the models are robust. Our results predict a potential northern shift in the distribution of T. gerstaeckeri and a northern and southern distributional shift of T. sanguisuga from its current range due to climate change. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The results of this study provide baseline information for monitoring the northward shift of potential risk from Chagas disease in the face of climate change.

9. Scenario Based Approach for Multiple Source Tsunami Hazard Assessment for Sines, Portugal

Wronna, Martin; Omira, Rachid; Baptista, Maria Ana

2015-04-01

In this paper, we present a scenario-based approach for tsunami hazard assessment for the city and harbour of Sines, Portugal one the test-sites of project ASTARTE. Sines holds one of the most important deep-water ports which contains oil-bearing, petrochemical, liquid bulk, coal and container terminals. The port and its industrial infrastructures are facing the ocean to the southwest facing the main seismogenic sources. This work considers two different seismic zones: the Southwest Iberian Margin and the Gloria Fault. Within these two regions, a total of five scenarios were selected to assess tsunami impact at the test site. These scenarios correspond to the worst-case credible scenario approach based upon the largest events of the historical and paleo tsunami catalogues. The tsunami simulations from the source area towards the coast is carried out using NSWING a Non-linear Shallow Water Model With Nested Grids. The code solves the non-linear shallow water equations using the discretization and explicit leap-frog finite difference scheme, in a Cartesian or Spherical frame. The initial sea surface displacement is assumed to be equal to the sea bottom deformation that is computed by Okada equations. Both uniform and non-uniform slip conditions are used. The presented results correspond to the models using non-uniform slip conditions. In this study, the static effect of tides is analysed for three different tidal stages MLLW (mean lower low water) MSL (mean sea level) and MHHW (mean higher high water). For each scenario, inundation is described by maximum values of wave height, flow depth, drawdown, run-up and inundation distance. Synthetic waveforms are computed at virtual tide gages at specific locations outside and inside the harbour. The final results consist of Aggregate Scenario Maps presented for the different inundation parameters. This work is funded by ASTARTE - Assessment, Strategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe - FP7-ENV2013 6.4-3, Grant 603839

10. Projection scenarios of body mass index (2013-2030) for Public Health Planning in Quebec.

Lo, Ernest; Hamel, Denis; Jen, Yun; Lamontagne, Patricia; Martel, Sylvie; Steensma, Colin; Blouin, Chantal; Steele, Russell

2014-09-25

Projection analyses can provide estimates of the future health burden of increasing BMI and represent a relevant and useful tool for public health planning. Our study presents long-term (2013-2030) projections of the prevalence and numbers of individuals by BMI category for adult men and women in Quebec. Three applications of projections to estimate outcomes more directly pertinent to public health planning, as well as an in-depth discussion of limits, are provided with the aim of encouraging greater use of projection analyses by public health officers. The weighted compositional regression method is applied to prevalence time series derived from sixteen cross-sectional survey cycles, for scenarios of linear change and deceleration. Estimation of the component of projected change potentially amenable to intervention, future health targets and the projected impact on type 2 diabetes, were done. Obesity prevalence in Quebec is projected to rise steadily from 2013 to 2030 in both men (from 18.0-19.4% to 22.2-30.4%) and women (from 15.5-16.3% to 18.2-22.4%). Corresponding projected numbers of obese individuals are (579,000-625,000 to 790,000-1,084,000) in men and (514,000-543,000 to 661,000-816,000) in women. These projected increases are found to be primarily an 'epidemiologic' rather than 'demographic' phenomenon and thus potentially amenable to public health intervention. Assessment of obesity targets for 2020 illustrates the necessity of using projected rather than current prevalence; for example a targeted 2% drop in obesity prevalence relative to 2013 translates into a 3.6-5.4% drop relative to 2020 projected levels. Type 2 diabetes is projected to increase from 6.9% to 9.2-10.1% in men and from 5.7% to 7.1-7.5% in women, from 2011-2012 to 2030. A substantial proportion of this change (25-44% for men, and 27-43% for women) is attributable to the changing BMI distribution. Obesity in Quebec is projected to increase and should therefore continue to be a public

11. Ontology-based collaborative framework for disaster recovery scenarios

Ramanathan, Sakkaravarthi; Drira, Khalil; Chassot, Christophe

2012-01-01

This paper aims at designing of adaptive framework for supporting collaborative work of different actors in public safety and disaster recovery missions. In such scenarios, firemen and robots interact to each other to reach a common goal; firemen team is equipped with smart devices and robots team is supplied with communication technologies, and should carry on specific tasks. Here, reliable connection is mandatory to ensure the interaction between actors. But wireless access network and communication resources are vulnerable in the event of a sudden unexpected change in the environment. Also, the continuous change in the mission requirements such as inclusion/exclusion of new actor, changing the actor's priority and the limitations of smart devices need to be monitored. To perform dynamically in such case, the presented framework is based on a generic multi-level modeling approach that ensures adaptation handled by semantic modeling. Automated self-configuration is driven by rule-based reconfiguration polici...

12. Modelling land use changes according to transportation scenarios using raster based GIS indicators

Fuglsang, Morten; Münier, Bernd; Hansen, Henning Sten

2012-01-01

The modelling of land use change is a way to analyse future scenarios by modelling different future pathways. This study demonstrates the potential to explore and test the understanding of land use change relations by applying spatial data of different scales, coupled with socio-economic data. In....... This will lead to less impact on climate from transportation based on a more optimal localization and transport infrastructure strategy........ In the EU-FP7 research project PASHMINA (Paradigm Shift modelling and innovative approaches), three storylines of future transportation paradigm shifts towards 2050 are created. These storylines are translated into spatial planning strategies and their implication on land use changes were modelled via...... the cellular automata model LUCIA. An Eastern Danish case area was selected, comprising the Copenhagen metropolitan area and its hinterland. The different scenarios are described using a range of different GIS datasets. These include mapping of accessibility based on public and private transportation, urban...

13. Future projections of insured losses in the German private building sector following the A1B climatic change scenario

Held, H.; Gerstengarbe, F.-W.; Hattermann, F.; Pinto, J. G.; Ulbrich, U.; Böhm, U.; Born, K.; Büchner, M.; Donat, M. G.; Kücken, M.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Nissen, K.; Nocke, T.; Österle, H.; Pardowitz, T.; Werner, P. C.; Burghoff, O.; Broecker, U.; Kubik, A.

2012-04-01

We present an overview of a complementary-approaches impact project dealing with the consequences of climate change for the natural hazard branch of the insurance industry in Germany. The project was conducted by four academic institutions together with the German Insurance Association (GDV) and finalized in autumn 2011. A causal chain is modeled that goes from global warming projections over regional meteorological impacts to regional economic losses for private buildings, hereby fully covering the area of Germany. This presentation will focus on wind storm related losses, although the method developed had also been applied in part to hail and flood impact losses. For the first time, the GDV supplied their collected set of insurance cases, dating back for decades, for such an impact study. These data were used to calibrate and validate event-based damage functions which in turn were driven by three different types of regional climate models to generate storm loss projections. The regional models were driven by a triplet of ECHAM5 experiments following the A1B scenario which were found representative in the recent ENSEMBLES intercomparison study. In our multi-modeling approach we used two types of regional climate models that conceptually differ at maximum: a dynamical model (CCLM) and a statistical model based on the idea of biased bootstrapping (STARS). As a third option we pursued a hybrid approach (statistical-dynamical downscaling). For the assessment of climate change impacts, the buildings' infrastructure and their economic value is kept at current values. For all three approaches, a significant increase of average storm losses and extreme event return levels in the German private building sector is found for future decades assuming an A1B-scenario. However, the three projections differ somewhat in terms of magnitude and regional differentiation. We have developed a formalism that allows us to express the combined effect of multi-source uncertainty on return

14. Designing Collaborative Learning Environments Using Educational Scenarios Based on SR

2009-01-01

Full Text Available As more and more studies acknowledge that students are basic contributors to the learning process, factors such as self concept, (computer self-efficacy and self-regulation are important in enhancing human performance. Nevertheless, these learner characteristics have received little attention in the e-learning environment. This paper presents the results of a study indicating significant positive relationships between learner characteristics, such as self-concept (academic achievement and job achievement, Computer Self Efficacy (CSE and Self-Regulation (SR constructs. Acknowledging the requirement for a strong shift of students towards developing self-regulated scenarios and strategies, we suggest that collaborative e-learning environments should be designed according to the self-regulated theory and self-beliefs. As a result, in this study we present a model examining how we can design educational scenarios based on self-regulation theory in a collaborative e-learning environment. This model is a tool for conducting experiments in e-learning university courses, studying the design, development and evaluation of the collaborative learning process.

15. Fuzzy Logic-Based Scenario Recognition from Video Sequences

E. Elbaşi

2013-10-01

Full Text Available In recent years, video surveillance and monitoring have gained importance because of security and safety concerns. Banks, borders, airports, stores, and parking areas are the important application areas. There are two main parts in scenario recognition: Low level processing, including moving object detection and object tracking, and feature extraction. We have developed new features through this work which are RUD (relative upper density, RMD (relative middle density and RLD (relative lower density, and we have used other features such as aspect ratio, width, height, and color of the object. High level processing, including event start-end point detection, activity detection for each frame and scenario recognition for sequence of images. This part is the focus of our research, and different pattern recognition and classification methods are implemented and experimental results are analyzed. We looked into several methods of classification which are decision tree, frequency domain classification, neural network-based classification, Bayes classifier, and pattern recognition methods, which are control charts, and hidden Markov models. The control chart approach, which is a decision methodology, gives more promising results than other methodologies. Overlapping between events is one of the problems, hence we applied fuzzy logic technique to solve this problem. After using this method the total accuracy increased from 95.6 to 97.2.

16. Deriving future oriented research and competence requirements based on scenarios

Sonne, Anne-Mette; Harmsen, Hanne; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

The key to a company's survival lies in its ability to adapt itself to an ever changing world. A company's knowledge and competencies must be fitted to the requirements of the environment in which it operates. However, the kind of competencies that ensures a company's survival are not acquired...... prepare for different possible futures do scenario methods offer real value. A way to try to be better prepared for the future is to deduct competence and research needs given different possible future development described in a number of scenarios. Hence, the aim of this paper is to test the use...... of scenarios for this purpose. Most scenario studies report mostly on the scenario construction, were as we want to focus on the suitability of scenario methods as a mean of deducting competence requirements and research needs. Also scenario techniques have mostly been used on either a company level or a macro...

17. Evaluating climate change adaptation options for urban flooding in Copenhagen based on new high‐end emission scenario simulations

Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Leonhardsen, Lykke; Madsen, Henrik

2014-01-01

Climate change adaptation studies on urban flooding are often based on a model chain approach from climate forcing scenarios to analysis of adaptation measures. Previous analyses of impacts in Denmark using ensemble projections of the A1B scenario are supplemented by two high‐end scenario...... to change substantially. The impacts are assessed using Copenhagen as a case study. For both types of extremes large adaptation measures are essential in the global six degree scenario; dikes must be constructed to mitigate sea surge risk and a variety of measures to store or convey storm water must...... be implemented as well as new paradigms for city planning to mitigate the impact of change in extreme precipitation risk. For both hazards business‐as‐usual are not possible scenarios, because large autonomous adaptation will occur in lack of suitable policy‐driven changes. Copenhagen has developed an adaptation...

18. Projected Scenarios for Coastal First Nations' Fisheries Catch Potential under Climate Change: Management Challenges and Opportunities.

Weatherdon, Lauren V; Ota, Yoshitaka; Jones, Miranda C; Close, David A; Cheung, William W L

2016-01-01

Studies have demonstrated ways in which climate-related shifts in the distributions and relative abundances of marine species are expected to alter the dynamics and catch potential of global fisheries. While these studies assess impacts on large-scale commercial fisheries, few efforts have been made to quantitatively project impacts on small-scale subsistence and commercial fisheries that are economically, socially and culturally important to many coastal communities. This study uses a dynamic bioclimate envelope model to project scenarios of climate-related changes in the relative abundance, distribution and richness of 98 exploited marine fishes and invertebrates of commercial and cultural importance to First Nations in coastal British Columbia, Canada. Declines in abundance are projected for most of the sampled species under both the lower (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 2.6) and higher (RCP 8.5) emission scenarios (-15.0% to -20.8%, respectively), with poleward range shifts occurring at a median rate of 10.3 to 18.0 km decade(-1) by 2050 relative to 2000. While a cumulative decline in catch potential is projected coastwide (-4.5 to -10.7%), estimates suggest a strong positive correlation between the change in relative catch potential and latitude, with First Nations' territories along the northern and central coasts of British Columbia likely to experience less severe declines than those to the south. Furthermore, a strong negative correlation is projected between latitude and the number of species exhibiting declining abundance. These trends are shown to be robust to alternative species distribution models. This study concludes by discussing corresponding management challenges that are likely to be encountered under climate change, and by highlighting the value of joint-management frameworks and traditional fisheries management approaches that could aid in offsetting impacts and developing site-specific mitigation and adaptation strategies derived

19. Scenarios of Future Water use on Mediterranean Islands based on an Integrated Assessment of Water Management

Lange, M. A.

2006-12-01

The availability of water in sufficient quantities and adequate quality presents considerable problems on Mediterranean islands. Because of their isolation and thus the impossibility to draw on more distant or more divers aquifers, they rely entirely on precipitation as natural replenishing mechanism. Recent observations indicate decreasing precipitation, increasing evaporation and steadily growing demand for water on the islands. Future climate change will exacerbate this problem, thus increasing the already pertinent vulnerability to droughts. Responsible planning of water management strategies requires scenarios of future supply and demand through an integrated assessment including climate scenarios based on regional climate modeling as well as scenarios on changes in societal and economical determinants of water demand. Constructing such strategies necessitates a thorough understanding about the interdependencies and feedbacks between physical/hydrological and socio-economic determinants of water balances on an island. This has to be based on a solid understanding of past and present developments of these drivers. In the framework of the EU-funded MEDIS project (Towards sustainable water use on Mediterranean Islands: addressing conflicting demands and varying hydrological, social and economic conditions, EVK1-CT-2001-00092), detailed investigations on present vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies to droughts have been carried out on Mallorca, Corsica, Sicily, Crete and Cyprus. This was based on an interdisciplinary study design including hydrological, geophysical, agricultural-, social and political sciences investigations. A central element of the study has been the close interaction with stakeholders on the islands and their contribution to strategy formulation. An important result has been a specification of vulnerability components including: a physical/environmental-, an economical/regulatory- and a social/institutional/political component. Their

20. Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

2016-04-01

In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

1. Hybrid Scenario Based Performance Analysis of DSDV and DSSR

Majumder, Koushik; 10.5121/ijcsit.2010.2305

2010-01-01

The area of mobile ad hoc networking has received considerable attention of the research community in recent years. These networks have gained immense popularity primarily due to their infrastructure-less mode of operation which makes them a suitable candidate for deployment in emergency scenarios like relief operation, battlefield etc., where either the pre-existing infrastructure is totally damaged or it is not possible to establish a new infrastructure quickly. However, MANETs are constrained due to the limited transmission range of the mobile nodes which reduces the total coverage area. Sometimes the infrastructure-less ad hoc network may be combined with a fixed network to form a hybrid network which can cover a wider area with the advantage of having less fixed infrastructure. In such a combined network, for transferring data, we need base stations which act as gateways between the wired and wireless domains. Due to the hybrid nature of these networks, routing is considered a challenging task. Several r...

2. Projection of Korean Probable Maximum Precipitation under Future Climate Change Scenarios

Okjeong Lee

2016-01-01

Full Text Available According to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, air temperature and humidity of the future are expected to gradually increase over the current. In this study, future PMPs are estimated by using future dew point temperature projection data which are obtained from RCM data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration. First, bias included in future dew point temperature projection data which is provided on a daily basis is corrected through a quantile-mapping method. Next, using a scale-invariance technique, 12-hour duration 100-year return period dew point temperatures which are essential input data for PMPs estimation are estimated from bias-corrected future dew point temperature data. After estimating future PMPs, it can be shown that PMPs in all future climate change scenarios (AR5 RCP2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5 are very likely to increase.

3. Local-scale climate scenarios for impact studies and risk assessments: integration of early 21st century ENSEMBLES projections into the ELPIS database

Calanca, Pierluigi; Semenov, Mikhail A.

2013-08-01

We present the integration of early 21st century climate projections for Europe based on simulations carried out within the EU-FP6 ENSEMBLES project with the LARS-WG stochastic weather generator. The aim was to upgrade ELPIS, a repository of local-scale climate scenarios for use in impact studies and risk assessments that already included global projections from the CMIP3 ensemble and regional scenarios for Japan. To obtain a more reliable simulation of daily rainfall and extremes, changes in wet and dry series derived from daily ENSEMBLES outputs were taken into account. Kernel average smoothers were used to reduce noise arising from sampling artefacts. Examples of risk analyses based on 25-km climate projections from the ENSEMBLES ensemble of regional climate models illustrate the possibilities offered by the updated version of ELPIS. The results stress the importance of tailored information for local-scale impact assessments at the European level.

4. Participatory Scenario Planning for Climate Change Adaptation: the Maui Groundwater Project

Keener, V. W.; Brewington, L.; Finucane, M.

2015-12-01

For the last century, the island of Maui in Hawai'i has been the center of environmental, agricultural, and legal conflict with respect to both surface and groundwater allocation. Planning for sustainable future freshwater supply in Hawai'i requires adaptive policies and decision-making that emphasizes private and public partnerships and knowledge transfer between scientists and non-scientists. We have downscaled dynamical climate models to 1 km resolution in Maui and coupled them with a USGS Water Budget model and a participatory scenario building process to quantify future changes in island-scale climate and groundwater recharge under different land uses. Although these projections are uncertain, the integrated nature of the Pacific RISA research program has allowed us to take a multi-pronged approach to facilitate the uptake of climate information into policy and management. This presentation details the ongoing work to support the development of Hawai'i's first island-wide water use plan under the new climate adaptation directive. Participatory scenario planning began in 2012 to bring together a diverse group of ~100 decision-makers in state and local government, watershed restoration, agriculture, and conservation to 1) determine the type of information (climate variables, land use and development, agricultural practices) they would find helpful in planning for climate change, and 2) develop a set of nested scenarios that represent alternative climate and management futures. This integration of knowledge is an iterative process, resulting in flexible and transparent narratives of complex futures comprised of information at multiple scales. We will present an overview of the downscaling, scenario building, hydrological modeling processes, and stakeholder response.

5. Modelling land use changes according to transportation scenarios using raster based GIS indicators

Fuglsang, Morten; Münier, Bernd; Hansen, Henning Sten

2012-01-01

. In the EU-FP7 research project PASHMINA (Paradigm Shift modelling and innovative approaches), three storylines of future transportation paradigm shifts towards 2050 are created. These storylines are translated into spatial planning strategies and their implication on land use changes were modelled via...... the cellular automata model LUCIA. An Eastern Danish case area was selected, comprising the Copenhagen metropolitan area and its hinterland. The different scenarios are described using a range of different GIS datasets. These include mapping of accessibility based on public and private transportation, urban...... in urban distribution that different spatial planning strategies may initiate, and thus change the shape of the urban landscape. The scenarios outline different planning strategies, leading to a more homogenous urban structure, targeted at a reduction of transportation work and thus energy consumption...

6. Projection of U.S. forest sector carbon sequestration under U.S. and global timber market and wood energy consumption scenarios, 2010-2060

Prakash Nepal; Peter J. Ince; Kenneth E. Skog; Sun J. Chang

2012-01-01

This study provides a modeling framework to examine change over time in U.S. forest sector carbon inventory (in U.S. timberland tree biomass and harvested wood products) for alternative projections of U.S. and global timber markets, including wood energy consumption, based on established IPCC/RPA scenarios. Results indicated that the U.S. forest sectorâs projected...

7. Projections of the East Asian Winter Monsoon under the IPCC AR5 Scenarios Using a Coupled Model:IAP_FGOALS

WEI Ke; BAO Qing

2012-01-01

Responses of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) in future projections were studied based on two core future projections of CMIP5 in coordinated experiments with the IAP-coupled model FGOALS2-s.The projected changes of EAWM in climatology,seasonality,and interannual variability are reported here;the projections indicated strong warming in winter season.Warming increased with latitude,ranging from 1℃ to 3℃ in the Representative Concentration Pathways simulation RCP4.5 projection (an experiment that results in additional radiative forcing of ～4.5 W m-2 in 2100) and from 4℃ to 9℃ in the RCP8.5 projection (an experiment that results in additional radiative forcing of ～8.5 W m-2 in 2100).The northerly wind along the East Asian coastal region became stronger in both scenarios,indicating a stronger EAWM.Accordingly,interannual variability (described by the standard deviation of temperature) increased around the South China Sea and lower latitudes and decreased over eastern China,especially in North China.The two EAWM basic modes,defined by the temperature EOF analysis over East Asia,were associated with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and stratospheric polar vortex.The future projections revealed more total variance attributable to the secondary mode,suggesting additional influences from the stratosphere.The correlation between AO and the leading mode decreased,while the correlation between AO and the secondary mode increased,implying increased complexity regarding the predictability of EAWM interannual variations in future projections.

8. Project on National Security Reform: Vision Working Group Report and Scenarios

2010-07-01

Bridges Martin Buoncristiani King-Thom Chung vi Michael Freeling Dr. C. T. Hess Christopher T. Hill E. Leonard Jossem William Kemperer V. Ramanathan...assumptions, problems, causes, and consequences. Scenario-Based Planning. Originally developed by Herman Kahn at the RAND Corporation in Santa...relation to policy and planning) was coined by Herman Kahn at the RAND Corporation in the 1950s as part of the strategic and military work he was

9. Blending Face-to-Face Higher Education with Web-Based Lectures: Comparing Different Didactical Application Scenarios

Montrieux, Hannelore; Vangestel, Sandra; Raes, Annelies; Matthys, Paul; Schellens, Tammy

2015-01-01

Blended learning as an instructional approach is getting more attention in the educational landscape and has been researched thoroughly. Yet, this study reports the results of an innovation project aiming to gain insight into three different scenarios of applying web-based lectures: as preparation for face-to-face practical exercises, as a…

10. Climate Scenarios for the NASA / USAID SERVIR Project: Challenges for Multiple Planning Horizons

Robertson, Franklin R.; Roberts, J. B.; Lyon, B.; Funk, C.; Bosilovich, M. G.

2014-01-01

SERVIR, an acronym meaning "to serve" in Spanish, is a joint venture between NASA and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) which provides satellite-based Earth observation data, modeling, and science applications to help developing nations in Central America, East Africa and the Himalayas improve environmental decision making. Anticipating climate variability / climate change impacts has now become an important component of the SERVIR efforts to build capacity in these regions. Uncertainty in hydrometeorological components of climate variations and exposure to extreme events across scales from weather to climate are of particular concern. We report here on work to construct scenarios or outlooks that are being developed as input drivers for decision support systems (DSSs) in a variety of settings. These DSSs are being developed jointly by a broad array NASA Applied Science Team (AST) Investigations and user communities in the three SERVIR Hub Regions, Central America, East Africa and the Himalayas. Issues span hydrologic / water resources modeling, agricultural productivity, and forest carbon reserves. The scenarios needed for these efforts encompass seasonal forecasts, interannual outlooks, and likely decadal / multi-decadal trends. Providing these scenarios across the different AST efforts enables some level of integration in considering regional responses to climate events. We will discuss a number of challenges in developing this continuum of scenarios including the identification and "mining" of predictability, addressing multiple continental regions, issues of downscaling global model integrations to regional / local applications (i.e. hydrologic and crop modeling). We compare / contrast the role of the U.S. National Multi- Model Experiment initiative in seasonal forecasts and the CMIP-5 climate model experiments in supporting these efforts. Examples of these scenarios, their use, and an assessment of their utility as well as limitations will

11. Multimodel ensemble projection of precipitation in eastern China under A1B emission scenario

Niu, Xiaorui; Wang, Shuyu; Tang, Jianping; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Gao, Xuejie; Wu, Jia; Hong, Songyou; Gutowski, William J.; McGregor, John

2015-10-01

As part of the Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project for Asia, future precipitation projection in China is constructed using five regional climate models (RCMs) driven by the same global climate model (GCM) of European Centre/Hamburg version 5. The simulations cover both the control climate (1978-2000) and future projection (2041-2070) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenario A1B. For the control climate, the RCMs have an advantage over the driving GCM in reproducing the summer mean precipitation distribution and the annual cycle. The biases in simulating summer precipitation mainly are caused by the deficiencies in reproducing the low-level circulation, such as the western Pacific subtropical high. In addition, large inter-RCM differences exist in the summer precipitation simulations. For the future climate, consistent and inconsistent changes in precipitation between the driving GCM and the nested RCMs are observed. Similar changes in summer precipitation are projected by RCMs over western China, but model behaviors are quite different over eastern China, which is dominated by the Asian monsoon system. The inter-RCM difference of rainfall changes is more pronounced in spring over eastern China. North China and the southern part of South China are very likely to experience less summer rainfall in multi-RCM mean (MRM) projection, while limited credibility in increased summer rainfall MRM projection over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin. The inter-RCM variability is the main contributor to the total uncertainty for the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin and South China during 2041-2060, while lowest for Northeast China, being less than 40%.

12. The development of contemporary European sea bass larvae (Dicentrarchus labrax) is not affected by projected ocean acidification scenarios.

Crespel, Amélie; Zambonino-Infante, José-Luis; Mazurais, David; Koumoundouros, George; Fragkoulis, Stefanos; Quazuguel, Patrick; Huelvan, Christine; Madec, Laurianne; Servili, Arianna; Claireaux, Guy

2017-01-01

Ocean acidification is a recognized consequence of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emission in the atmosphere. Despite its threat to marine ecosystems, little is presently known about the capacity for fish to respond efficiently to this acidification. In adult fish, acid-base regulatory capacities are believed to be relatively competent to respond to hypercapnic conditions. However, fish in early life stage could be particularly sensitive to environmental factors as organs and important physiological functions become progressively operational during this period. In this study, the response of European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax) larvae reared under three ocean acidification scenarios, i.e., control (present condition, [Formula: see text] = 590 µatm, pH total = 7.9), low acidification (intermediate IPCC scenario, [Formula: see text] = 980 µatm, pH total = 7.7), and high acidification (most severe IPCC scenario, [Formula: see text] = 1520 µatm, pH total = 7.5) were compared across multiple levels of biological organizations. From 2 to 45 days-post-hatching, the chronic exposure to the different scenarios had limited influence on the survival and growth of the larvae (in the low acidification condition only) and had no apparent effect on the digestive developmental processes. The high acidification condition induced both faster mineralization and reduction in skeletal deformities. Global (microarray) and targeted (qPCR) analysis of transcript levels in whole larvae did not reveal any significant changes in gene expression across tested acidification conditions. Overall, this study suggests that contemporary sea bass larvae are already capable of coping with projected acidification conditions without having to mobilize specific defense mechanisms.

13. New Approaches to Transport Project Assessment: Reference Scenario Forecasting and Quantitative Risk Analysis

Salling, Kim Bang

2010-01-01

This presentation sets out a new methodology for examining the uncertainties relating to transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. Traditional transport infrastructure projects are based upon cost-benefit analyses in order to appraise the projects feasibility. Recent research....... Additionally, the handling of uncertainties is supplemented by making use of the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits (user demands i.e. travel time savings) and underestimating investment costs....

14. Deriving future oriented research and competence requirements based on scenarios

Sonne, Anne-Mette; Harmsen, Hanne; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

, which perhaps explains the increasing popularity of scenario analysis in business and other organizations. An institutionalised usage of scenario planning can shape a company's ability to act rather than to react in a volatile environment. Emerging weak signals (i.e. indicators of change) can...... be intercepted at a much earlier point in time. Decoding weak signals can prevent sudden emergency situations to occur or it can turn into unexpected opportunities ready to be taken advantage of ahead of compe-titors (Schoemaker, 1995). However, a scenario is not an end in itself. Only when it is used to help...

15. Scenario-based water resources planning for utilities in the Lake Victoria region

Mehta, Vishal K.; Aslam, Omar; Dale, Larry; Miller, Norman; Purkey, David R.

Urban areas in the Lake Victoria (LV) region are experiencing the highest growth rates in Africa. As efforts to meet increasing demand accelerate, integrated water resources management (IWRM) tools provide opportunities for utilities and other stakeholders to develop a planning framework comprehensive enough to include short term (e.g. landuse change), as well as longer term (e.g. climate change) scenarios. This paper presents IWRM models built using the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) decision support system, for three towns in the LV region - Bukoba (Tanzania), Masaka (Uganda), and Kisii (Kenya). Each model was calibrated under current system performance based on site visits, utility reporting and interviews. Projected water supply, demand, revenues and costs were then evaluated against a combination of climate, demographic and infrastructure scenarios up to 2050. Our results show that water supply in all three towns is currently infrastructure limited; achieving existing design capacity could meet most projected demand until 2020s in Masaka beyond which new supply and conservation strategies would be needed. In Bukoba, reducing leakages would provide little performance improvement in the short-term, but doubling capacity would meet all demands until 2050. In Kisii, major infrastructure investment is urgently needed. In Masaka, streamflow simulations show that wetland sources could satisfy all demand until 2050, but at the cost of almost no water downstream of the intake. These models demonstrate the value of IWRM tools for developing water management plans that integrate hydroclimatology-driven supply to demand projections on a single platform.

16. Projecting water withdrawal and supply for future decades in the U.S. under climate change scenarios.

Roy, Sujoy B; Chen, Limin; Girvetz, Evan H; Maurer, Edwin P; Mills, William B; Grieb, Thomas M

2012-03-01

The sustainability of water resources in future decades is likely to be affected by increases in water demand due to population growth, increases in power generation, and climate change. This study presents water withdrawal projections in the United States (U.S.) in 2050 as a result of projected population increases and power generation at the county level as well as the availability of local renewable water supplies. The growth scenario assumes the per capita water use rate for municipal withdrawals to remain at 2005 levels and the water use rates for new thermoelectric plants at levels in modern closed-loop cooling systems. In projecting renewable water supply in future years, median projected monthly precipitation and temperature by sixteen climate models were used to derive available precipitation in 2050 (averaged over 2040-2059). Withdrawals and available precipitation were compared to identify regions that use a large fraction of their renewable local water supply. A water supply sustainability risk index that takes into account additional attributes such as susceptibility to drought, growth in water withdrawal, increased need for storage, and groundwater use was developed to evaluate areas at greater risk. Based on the ranking by the index, high risk areas can be assessed in more mechanistic detail in future work.

17. Projected changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells in a high concentration pathway 21st century scenario

Pascale, Salvatore; Feng, Xue; Porporato, Amilcare; Hasson, Shabeh ul

2014-01-01

In this diagnostic study we analyze changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells by the end of the twenty-first century under the most extreme IPCC5 emission scenario (RCP8.5) as projected by twenty-four coupled climate models participating to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. We use estimates of the centroid of the monthly rainfall distribution as an index of the rainfall timing and a threshold-independent, information theory-based quantity such as relative entropy (RE) to quantify the concentration of annual rainfall and the number of dry months and to build a monsoon dimensionless seasonality index (DSI). The RE is projected to increase, with high inter-model agreement over Mediterranean-type regions (southern Europe, northern Africa and southern Australia) and areas of South and Central America, implying an increase in the number of dry days up to one month by the end of the twenty-first century. Positive RE changes are also projected over the monsoon regions of southern Africa and North America,...

18. River discharge and flood inundation over the Amazon based on IPCC AR5 scenarios

Paiva, Rodrigo; Sorribas, Mino; Jones, Charles; Carvalho, Leila; Melack, John; Bravo, Juan Martin; Beighley, Edward

2015-04-01

Climate change and related effects over the hydrologic regime of the Amazon River basin could have major impacts over human and ecological communities, including issues with transportation, flood vulnerability, fisheries and hydropower generation. We examined future changes in discharge and floodplain inundation within the Amazon River basin. We used the hydrological model MGB-IPH (Modelo de Grandes Bacias - Instituto de Pesquisas Hidráulicas) coupled with a 1D river hydrodynamic model simulating water storage over the floodplains. The model was forced using satellite based precipitation from the TRMM 3B42 dataset, and it had a good performance when validated against discharge and stage measurements as well as remotely sensed data, including radar altimetry-based water levels, gravity anomaly-based terrestrial water storage and flood inundation extent. Future scenarios of precipitation and other relevant climatic variables for the 2070 to 2100 time period were taken from five coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) from IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The climate models were chosen based on their ability to represent the main aspects of recent (1970 to 2000) Amazon climate. A quantile-quantile bias removal procedure was applied to climate model precipitation to mitigate unreliable predictions. The hydrologic model was then forced using past observed climate data altered by delta change factors based on the past and future climate models aiming to estimate projected discharge and floodplain inundation in climate change scenario at several control points in the basin. The climate projections present large uncertainty, especially the precipitation rate, and predictions using different climate models do not agree on the sign of changes on total Amazon flood extent or discharge along the main stem of the Amazon River. However, analyses of results at different regions indicate an increase

19. Changes of precipitation extremes over South Korea projected by the 5 RCMs under RCP scenarios

Ahn, Joong-Bae; Jo, Sera; Suh, Myoung-Seok; Cha, Dong-Hyun; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Hong, Song-You; Min, Seung-Ki; Park, Seong-Chan; Kang, Hyun-Suk; Shim, Kyo-Moon

2016-05-01

The change of extreme precipitation is assessed with the HadGEM2-AO - 5 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) chain, which is a national downscaling project undertaken cooperatively by several South Korean institutes aimed at producing regional climate change projection with fine resolution (12.5 km) around the Korean Peninsula. The downscaling domain, resolution and lateral boundary conditions are held the same among the 5 RCMs to minimize the uncertainties from model configuration. Climatological changes reveal a statistically significant increase in the mid-21st century (2046- 2070; Fut1) and the late-21st century (2076-2100; Fut2) precipitation properties related to extreme precipitation, such as precipitation intensity and average of upper 5 percentile daily precipitation, with respect to the reference period (1981-2005). Changes depending on the intensity categories also present a clear trend of decreasing light rain and increasing heavy rain. In accordance with these results, the change of 1-in-50 year maximum precipitation intensity over South Korea is estimated by the GEV method. The result suggests that the 50-year return value (RV50) will change from -32.69% to 72.7% and from -31.6% to 96.32% in Fut1 and from -31.97% to 86.25% and from -19.45% to 134.88% in Fut2 under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively, at the 90% confidence level. This study suggests that multi-RCMs can be used to reduce uncertainties and assess the future change of extreme precipitation more reliably. Moreover, future projection of the regional climate change contains uncertainties evoked from not only driving GCM but also RCM. Therefore, multi-GCM and multi-RCM studies are expected to provide more robust projection.

20. A probabilistic approach to 21st century regional sea-level projections using RCP and High-end scenarios

Jackson, Luke P.; Jevrejeva, Svetlana

2016-11-01

Sea-level change is an integrated climate system response due to changes in radiative forcing, anthropogenic land-water use and land-motion. Projecting sea-level at a global and regional scale requires a subset of projections - one for each sea-level component given a particular climate-change scenario. We construct relative sea-level projections through the 21st century for RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5 and High-end (RCP 8.5 with increased ice-sheet contribution) scenarios by aggregating spatial projections of individual sea-level components in a probabilistic manner. Most of the global oceans adhere to the projected global average sea level change within 5 cm throughout the century for all scenarios; however coastal regions experience localised effects due to the non-uniform spatial patterns of individual components. This can result in local projections that are 10‧s of centimetres different from the global average by 2100. Early in the century, RSL projections are consistent across all scenarios, however from the middle of the century the patterns of RSL for RCP scenarios deviate from the High-end where the contribution from Antarctica dominates. Similarly, the uncertainty in projected sea-level is dominated by an uncertain Antarctic fate. We also explore the effect upon projections of, treating CMIP5 model ensembles as normally distributed when they might not be, correcting CMIP5 model output for internal variability using different polynomials and using different unloading patterns of ice for the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.

1. LONG-TERM GLOBAL WATER USE PROJECTIONS USING SIX SOCIOECONOMIC SCENARIOS IN AN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING FRAMEWORK

Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.; Moss, Richard H.; Kim, Son H.

2014-01-19

In this paper, we assess future water demands for the agricultural (irrigation and livestock), energy (electricity generation, primary energy production and processing), industrial (manufacturing and mining), and municipal sectors, by incorporating water demands into a technologically-detailed global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change – the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Base-year water demands—both gross withdrawals and net consumptive use—are assigned to specific modeled activities in a way that maximizes consistency between bottom-up estimates of water demand intensities of specific technologies and practices, and top-down regional and sectoral estimates of water use. The energy, industrial, and municipal sectors are represented in fourteen geopolitical regions, with the agricultural sector further disaggregated into as many as eighteen agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within each region. We assess future water demands representing six socioeconomic scenarios, with no constraints imposed by future water supplies. The scenarios observe increases in global water withdrawals from 3,578 km3 year-1 in 2005 to 5,987 – 8,374 km3 year-1 in 2050, and to 4,719 – 12,290 km3 year-1 in 2095. Comparing the projected total regional water withdrawals to the historical supply of renewable freshwater, the Middle East exhibits the highest levels of water scarcity throughout the century, followed by India; water scarcity increases over time in both of these regions. In contrast, water scarcity improves in some regions with large base-year electric sector withdrawals, such as the USA and Canada, due to capital stock turnover and the almost complete phase-out of once-through flow cooling systems. The scenarios indicate that: 1) water is likely a limiting factor in climate change mitigation policies, 2) many regions can be expected to increase reliance on non-renewable groundwater, water reuse, and desalinated water, but they also

2. Projections of glacier change in the Altai Mountains under twenty-first century climate scenarios

Zhang, Yong; Enomoto, Hiroyuki; Ohata, Tetsuo; Kitabata, Hideyuki; Kadota, Tsutomu; Hirabayashi, Yukiko

2016-11-01

We project glacier surface mass balances of the Altai Mountains over the period 2006-2100 for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios using daily near-surface air temperature and precipitation from 12 global climate models in combination with a surface mass balance model. The results indicate that the Altai glaciers will undergo sustained mass loss throughout the 21st for both RCPs and reveal the future fate of glaciers of different sizes. By 2100, glacier area in the region will shrink by 26 ± 10 % for RCP4.5, while it will shrink by 60 ± 15 % for RCP8.5. According to our simulations, most disappearing glaciers are located in the western part of the Altai Mountains. For RCP4.5, all glaciers disappearing in the twenty-first century have a present-day size smaller than 5.0 km2, while for RCP8.5, an additional 7 % of glaciers in the initial size class of 5.0-10.0 km2 also vanish. We project different trends in the total meltwater discharge of the region for the two RCPs, which does not peak before 2100, with important consequences for regional water availability, particular for the semi-arid and arid regions. This further highlights the potential implications of change in the Altai glaciers on regional hydrology and environment.

3. Projections of glacier change in the Altai Mountains under twenty-first century climate scenarios

Zhang, Yong; Enomoto, Hiroyuki; Ohata, Tetsuo; Kitabata, Hideyuki; Kadota, Tsutomu; Hirabayashi, Yukiko

2016-01-01

We project glacier surface mass balances of the Altai Mountains over the period 2006-2100 for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios using daily near-surface air temperature and precipitation from 12 global climate models in combination with a surface mass balance model. The results indicate that the Altai glaciers will undergo sustained mass loss throughout the 21st for both RCPs and reveal the future fate of glaciers of different sizes. By 2100, glacier area in the region will shrink by 26 ± 10 % for RCP4.5, while it will shrink by 60 ± 15 % for RCP8.5. According to our simulations, most disappearing glaciers are located in the western part of the Altai Mountains. For RCP4.5, all glaciers disappearing in the twenty-first century have a present-day size smaller than 5.0 km2, while for RCP8.5, an additional ~7 % of glaciers in the initial size class of 5.0-10.0 km2 also vanish. We project different trends in the total meltwater discharge of the region for the two RCPs, which does not peak before 2100, with important consequences for regional water availability, particular for the semi-arid and arid regions. This further highlights the potential implications of change in the Altai glaciers on regional hydrology and environment.

4. Offshore wind energy climate projection using UPSCALE climate data under the RCP8.5 emission scenario

Gross, Markus

2015-01-01

Recently it was demonstrated how climate data can be utilized to estimate regional wind power densities. In particular it was shown that the quality of the global scale estimate compared well with regional high resolution studies and a link between surface temperature and moist density in the estimate was presented. In the present paper the methodology is tested further, to ensure that the results using one climate data set are reliable. This is achieved by extending the study to include four ensemble members. With the confidence that one instantiation is sufficient a climate change data set, which was also a result of the UPSCALE experiment, is analyzed. This, for the first time, provides a projection of future changes in wind power resources using this data set. This climate change data set is based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario. This provides guidance for developers and policy makers to mitigate and adapt.

5. Scenario-Based Spoken Interaction with Virtual Agents

Morton, Hazel; Jack, Mervyn A.

2005-01-01

This paper describes a CALL approach which integrates software for speaker independent continuous speech recognition with embodied virtual agents and virtual worlds to create an immersive environment in which learners can converse in the target language in contextualised scenarios. The result is a self-access learning package: SPELL (Spoken…

6. The CLUVA project: Climate-change scenarios and their impact on urban areas in Africa

Di Ruocco, Angela; Weets, Guy; Gasparini, Paolo; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Lindley, Sarah; Pauleit, Stephan; Vahed, Anwar; Schiano, Pasquale; Kabisch, Sigrun; Vedeld, Trond; Coly, Adrien; Tonye, Emmanuel; Touré, Hamidou; Kombe, Wilbard; Yeshitela, Kumelachew

2013-04-01

CLUVA (CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa; http://www.cluva.eu/) is a 3 years project, funded by the European Commission in 2010. Its main objective is the estimate of the impacts of climate changes in the next 40 years at urban scale in Africa. The mission of CLUVA is to develop methods and knowledge to assess risks cascading from climate-changes. It downscales IPCC climate projections to evaluate threats to selected African test cities; mainly floods, sea-level rise, droughts, heat waves and desertification. The project evaluates and links: social vulnerability; vulnerability of in-town ecosystems and urban-rural interfaces; vulnerability of urban built environment and lifelines; and related institutional and governance dimensions of adaptation. A multi-scale and multi-disciplinary quantitative, probabilistic, modelling is applied. CLUVA brings together climate experts, risk management experts, urban planners and social scientists with their African counterparts in an integrated research effort focusing on the improvement of the capacity of scientific institutions, local councils and civil society to cope with climate change. The CLUVA approach was set-up in the first year of the project and developed as follows: an ensemble of eight global projections of climate changes is produced for east and west Africa until 2050 considering the new IPCC (International Panel on Climate Changes; http://www.ipcc.ch/) scenarios. These are then downscaled to urban level, where territorial modeling is required to compute hazard effects on the vulnerable physical system (urban ecosystems, informal settlements, lifelines such as transportation and sewer networks) as well as on the social context, in defined time frames, and risk analysis is then employed to assess expected consequences. An investigation of the existing urban planning and governance systems and its interface with climate risks is performed. With the aid of the African partners, the developed approach

7. Projections of NH3 emissions from manure generated by livestock production in China to 2030 under six mitigation scenarios.

Xu, Peng; Koloutsou-Vakakis, Sotiria; Rood, Mark J; Luan, Shengji

2017-07-05

China's rapid urbanization, large population, and increasing consumption of calorie-and meat-intensive diets, have resulted in China becoming the world's largest source of ammonia (NH3) emissions from livestock production. This is the first study to use provincial, condition-specific emission factors based on most recently available studies on Chinese manure management and environmental conditions. The estimated NH3 emission temporal trends and spatial patterns are interpreted in relation to government policies affecting livestock production. Scenario analysis is used to project emissions and estimate mitigation potential of NH3 emissions, to year 2030. We produce a 1km×1km gridded NH3 emission inventory for 2008 based on county-level activity data, which can help identify locations of highest NH3 emissions. The total NH3 emissions from manure generated by livestock production in 2008 were 7.3TgNH3·yr(-1) (interquartile range from 6.1 to 8.6TgNH3·yr(-1)), and the major sources were poultry (29.9%), pigs (28.4%), other cattle (27.9%), and dairy cattle (7.0%), while sheep and goats (3.6%), donkeys (1.3%), horses (1.2%), and mules (0.7%) had smaller contributions. From 1978 to 2008, annual NH3 emissions fluctuated with two peaks (1996 and 2006), and total emissions increased from 2.2 to 7.3Tg·yr(-1) increasing on average 4.4%·yr(-1). Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, NH3 emissions in 2030 are expected to be 13.9TgNH3·yr(-1) (11.5-16.3TgNH3·yr(-1)). Under mitigation scenarios, the projected emissions could be reduced by 18.9-37.3% compared to 2030 BAU emissions. This study improves our understanding of NH3 emissions from livestock production, which is needed to guide stakeholders and policymakers to make well informed mitigation decisions for NH3 emissions from livestock production at the country and regional levels. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

8. Scenario-Based Digital Forensics Challenges in Cloud Computing

Erik Miranda Lopez

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The aim of digital forensics is to extract information to answer the 5Ws (Why, When, Where, What, and Who from the data extracted from the evidence. In order to achieve this, most digital forensic processes assume absolute control of digital evidence. However, in a cloud environment forensic investigation, this is not always possible. Additionally, the unique characteristics of cloud computing create new technical, legal and architectural challenges when conducting a forensic investigation. We propose a hypothetical scenario to uncover and explain the challenges forensic practitioners face during cloud investigations. Additionally, we also provide solutions to address the challenges. Our hypothetical case scenario has shown that, in the long run, better live forensic tools, development of new methods tailored for cloud investigations and new procedures and standards are indeed needed. Furthermore, we have come to the conclusion that forensic investigations biggest challenge is not technical but legal.

9. Tx scenario analysis of FBMC based LDM system

Soonki Jo

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Filter bank multiple carrier (FBMC technology is one of the alternative solutions for multicarrier modulation. FBMC does not need cyclic prefix (CP and guard band utilized for orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM and CP and guard band cause loss of spectral efficiency. FBMC features offset QAM (OQAM and band-limited filtering on each subcarrier, which eliminate the need of CP and guard band. FBMC filtering could maintain the orthogonality in a real signal domain by using well localized filter. Meanwhile layer division multiplexing (LDM is also introduced to increase the spectral efficiency. In LDM, low density parity check (LDPC coded multi signals are transmitted simultaneously with different power levels in same frequency band and these signals form signal layers. Combination of FBMC and LDM techniques can maximize the spectral efficiency. In this paper, LDM system which adopts FBMC is proposed. The LDM system has both OFDM and FBMC modulated layers. To apply FBMC to LDM system, log-likelihood ratio (LLR calculation scheme for FBMC is needed for LDPC decoding. Three scenarios for LDM system are considered and BER performance of each scenario is analyzed to find proper scenario.

10. Mid-Twenty-First-Century Changes in Global Wave Energy Flux: Single-Model, Single-Forcing and Single-Scenario Ensemble Projections

Semedo, Alvaro; Lemos, Gil; Dobrynin, Mikhail; Behrens, Arno; Staneva, Joanna; Miranda, Pedro

2017-04-01

The knowledge of ocean surface wave energy fluxes (or wave power) is of outmost relevance since wave power has a direct impact in coastal erosion, but also in sediment transport and beach nourishment, and ship, as well as in coastal and offshore infrastructures design. Changes in the global wave energy flux pattern can alter significantly the impact of waves in continental shelf and coastal areas. Up until recently the impact of climate change in future global wave climate had received very little attention. Some single model single scenario global wave climate projections, based on CMIP3 scenarios, were pursuit under the auspices of the COWCLIP (coordinated ocean wave climate projections) project, and received some attention in the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change) AR5 (fifth assessment report). In the present study the impact of a warmer climate in the near future global wave energy flux climate is investigated through a 4-member "coherent" ensemble of wave climate projections: single-model, single-forcing, and single-scenario. In this methodology model variability is reduced, leaving only room for the climate change signal. The four ensemble members were produced with the wave model WAM, forced with wind speed and ice coverage from EC-Earth projections, following the representative concentration pathway with a high emissions scenario 8.5 (RCP8.5). The ensemble present climate reference period (the control run) has been set for 1976 to 2005. The projected changes in the global wave energy flux climate are analyzed for the 2031-2060 period.

11. Creative Classrooms through Game-Based Role-Play Scenarios

Gjedde, Lisa

2014-01-01

There is a well-defined need for developing creativity and innovation in the classroom through fostering creative learning environments and innovative learning approaches. In a research project one approach towards a more creative classroom has been explored in a secondary school. The project...

12. The implications of climate change scenario selection for future streamflow projection in the Upper Colorado River Basin

B. L. Harding

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The impact of projected 21st century climate conditions on streamflow in the Upper Colorado River Basin was estimated using a multi-model ensemble approach wherein the downscaled outputs of 112 future climate scenarios from 16 global climate models (GCMs were used to drive a macroscale hydrology model. By the middle of the century, the impacts on streamflow range, over the entire ensemble, from a decrease of approximately 30% to an increase of approximately the same magnitude. Although prior studies and associated media coverage have focused heavily on the likelihood of a drier future for the Colorado River Basin, approximately one-third of the ensemble of runs result in little change or increases in streamflow. The broad range of projected impacts is primarily the result of uncertainty in projections of future precipitation, and a relatively small part of the variability of precipitation across the projections can be attributed to the effect of emissions scenarios. The simulated evolution of future temperature is strongly influenced by emissions, but temperature has a smaller influence than precipitation on flow. Period change statistics (i.e., the change in flow from one 30-yr period to another vary as much within a model ensemble as between models and emissions scenarios. Even over the course of the current century, the variability across the projections is much greater than the trend in the ensemble mean. The relatively large ensemble analysis described herein provides perspective on earlier studies that have used fewer scenarios, and suggests that impact analyses relying on one or a few scenarios, as is still common in dynamical downscaling assessments, are unacceptably influenced by choice of projections.

13. Earthquake scenarios based on lessons from the past

Solakov, Dimcho; Simeonova, Stella; Aleksandrova, Irena; Popova, Iliana

2010-05-01

Earthquakes are the most deadly of the natural disasters affecting the human environment; indeed catastrophic earthquakes have marked the whole human history. Global seismic hazard and vulnerability to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization and development occupy more areas that are prone to effects of strong earthquakes. Additionally, the uncontrolled growth of mega cities in highly seismic areas around the world is often associated with the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, and undertaken with an insufficient knowledge of the regional seismicity peculiarities and seismic hazard. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first link in the prevention chain and the first step in the evaluation of the seismic risk. The implementation of the earthquake scenarios into the policies for seismic risk reduction will allow focusing on the prevention of earthquake effects rather than on intervention following the disasters. The territory of Bulgaria (situated in the eastern part of the Balkan Peninsula) represents a typical example of high seismic risk area. Over the centuries, Bulgaria has experienced strong earthquakes. At the beginning of the 20-the century (from 1901 to 1928) five earthquakes with magnitude larger than or equal to MS=7.0 occurred in Bulgaria. However, no such large earthquakes occurred in Bulgaria since 1928, which may induce non-professionals to underestimate the earthquake risk. The 1986 earthquake of magnitude MS=5.7 occurred in the central northern Bulgaria (near the town of Strazhitsa) is the strongest quake after 1928. Moreover, the seismicity of the neighboring countries, like Greece, Turkey, former Yugoslavia and Romania (especially Vrancea-Romania intermediate earthquakes), influences the seismic hazard in Bulgaria. In the present study deterministic scenarios (expressed in seismic intensity) for two Bulgarian cities (Rouse and Plovdiv) are presented. The work on

14. Modelling runoff response from Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya, Upper Indus Basin under prevailing and projected climate change scenarios

Hasson, Shabeh ul; Böhner, Jürgen; Lucarini, Valerio

2015-04-01

We, analyzing observations from high altitude automated weather stations from the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya (HKH) within upper Indus basin (UIB), assess prevailing state of climatic changes over the UIB and whether such state is consistently represented by the latest generation climate model simulations. We further assess impacts of future climate change on the hydrology of the UIB, and changes in its snow and glacier melt regimes, separately. For this, a semi-distributed watershed model (UBC - University of British Columbia) has been calibrated/validated for UIB at Besham Qila (just above the Tarbela reservoir) using daily historical climate (Tmax, Tmin and Precipitation) and river flow data for the period 1995-2012. Our results show that the UIB stands out the anthropogenic climate change signal, featuring a significant cooling (warming) during the mid-to-late (early) melt season and an enhanced influence of the westerly and monsoonal precipitation regimes. We also show that such phenomena, particularly the summer cooling is largely absent from the latest generation climate model simulations, suggesting their irrelevance for at least near-future assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology of UIB. Therefore, we construct a hypothetical but more relevant near-future climate change scenario till 2030 based on prevailing state of climate change over UIB. We additionally obtain climate change scenario as projected by five high-resolution CMIP5 climate models under an extreme representative concentration pathway RCP8.5 for the period 2085-2100, assuming that such a scenario may only be realized in the far-future, if at all. Under the hypothetical near-future scenario, our modelling results show that the glacier melt (snowmelt) contribution will decrease (increase) due to cooling (warming) in mid-to-late (early) melt season, though the overall flows will drop. Consequently, the overall hydrological regime will experience an early snow- but a delayed glacier

15. Should big cities grow? Scenario-based cellular automata urban growth modeling and policy applications

ChengHe Guan

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The formation of ‘Urban Networks’ has become a wide-spread phenomenon around the world. In the study of metropolitan regions, there are competing or diverging views about management and control of environmental and land-use factors as well as about scales and arrangements of settlements. Especially in China, these matters alongside of regulatory aspects, infrastructure applications, and resource allocations, are important because of population concentrations and the overlapping of urban areas with other land resources. On the other hand, the increasing sophistication of models operating on iterative computational power and widely-available spatial information and analytical techniques make it possible to simulate and investigate the spatial distribution of urban territories at a regional scale. This research applies a scenario-based Cellular Automata model to a case study of the Changjiang Delta Region, which produces useful and predictive scenario-based projections within the region, using quantitative methods and baseline conditions that address issues of regional urban development. The contribution of the research includes the improvement of computer simulation of urban growth, the application of urban form and other indices to evaluate complex urban conditions, and a heightened understanding of the performance of an urban network in the Changjiang Delta Region composed of big, medium, and small-sized cities and towns.

16. "The Strawberry Caper": Using Scenario-Based Problem Solving to Integrate Middle School Science Topics

Gonda, Rebecca L.; DeHart, Kyle; Ashman, Tia-Lynn; Legg, Alison Slinskey

2015-01-01

Achieving a deep understanding of the many topics covered in middle school biology classes is difficult for many students. One way to help students learn these topics is through scenario-based learning, which enhances students' performance. The scenario-based problem-solving module presented here, "The Strawberry Caper," not only…

17. "The Strawberry Caper": Using Scenario-Based Problem Solving to Integrate Middle School Science Topics

Gonda, Rebecca L.; DeHart, Kyle; Ashman, Tia-Lynn; Legg, Alison Slinskey

2015-01-01

Achieving a deep understanding of the many topics covered in middle school biology classes is difficult for many students. One way to help students learn these topics is through scenario-based learning, which enhances students' performance. The scenario-based problem-solving module presented here, "The Strawberry Caper," not only…

18. Ship accessibility predictions for the Arctic Ocean based on IPCC CO2 emission scenarios

Oh, Jai-Ho; Woo, Sumin; Yang, Sin-Il

2017-02-01

Changes in the extent of Arctic sea ice, which have resulted from climate change, offer new opportunities to use the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and Northwest Passage (NWP) for shipping. However, choosing to navigate the Arctic Ocean remains challenging due to the limited accessibility of ships and the balance between economic gain and potential risk. As a result, more precise and detailed information on both weather and sea ice change in the Arctic are required. In this study, a high-resolution global AGCM was used to provide detailed information on the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice. For this simulation, we have simulated the AMIP-type simulation for the present-day climate during 31 years from 1979 to 2009 with observed SST and Sea Ice concentration. For the future climate projection, we have performed the historical climate during 1979-2005 and subsequently the future climate projection during 2010-2099 with mean of four CMIP5 models due to the two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5). First, the AMIP-type simulation was evaluated by comparison with observations from the Hadley Centre sea-ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadlSST) dataset. The model reflects the maximum (in March) and minimum (in September) sea ice extent and annual cycle. Based on this validation, the future sea ice extents show the decreasing trend for both the maximum and minimum seasons and RCP 8.5 shows more sharply decreasing patterns of sea ice than RCP 4.5. Under both scenarios, ships classified as Polar Class (PC) 3 and Open-Water (OW) were predicted to have the largest and smallest number of ship-accessible days (in any given year) for the NSR and NWP, respectively. Based on the RCP 8.5 scenario, the projections suggest that after 2070, PC3 and PC6 vessels will have year-round access across to the Arctic Ocean. In contrast, OW vessels will continue to have a seasonal handicap, inhibiting their ability to pass through the NSR and NWP.

19. New Approaches to Transport Project Assessment: Reference Scenario Forecasting and Quantitative Risk Analysis

Salling, Kim Bang

2010-01-01

This presentation sets out a new methodology for examining the uncertainties relating to transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. Traditional transport infrastructure projects are based upon cost-benefit analyses in order to appraise the projects feasibility. Recent research...... however has proved that the point estimates derived from such analyses are embedded with a large degree of uncertainty. Thus, a new scheme was proposed in terms of applying quantitative risk analysis (QRA) and Monte Carlo simulation in order to represent the uncertainties within the cost-benefit analysis....... Additionally, the handling of uncertainties is supplemented by making use of the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits (user demands i.e. travel time savings) and underestimating investment costs....

20. Temporal aspects in the development of a cascading-event crisis scenario: A pilot demonstration of the CRISMA project

Aubrecht, Christoph; Almeida, Miguel; Polese, Maria; Reva, Valeria; Steinnocher, Klaus; Zuccaro, Giulio

2013-04-01

In this abstract we illustrate the various temporal aspects to be considered in a multi-hazard crisis scenario set up as pilot study in the EU-FP7 Integrated Project CRISMA. In the framework of CRISMA a simulation-based decision support system for crisis management is developed facilitating the modeling of realistic crisis scenarios, related pre-event vulnerabilities, as well as possible response actions and associated varying potential impacts on society. Both external factors driving crisis development and actions of the involved crisis management team are considered in the system setup. The presented case is a complex cascading-event crisis scenario that is initiated by an earthquake causing building collapse and a consequent gas pipeline failure that triggers a follow-up fire in a nearby forest with potential to spread and endangering a village of the neighborhood. In terms of the hazard components, major earthquakes are rapid-onset events that can occur at any time without warning while fires are rather slow-progressing hazards usually allowing a certain lead time for preparations. In our scenario, which is based on the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake in Italy, a series of low-magnitude events preceding the main shock over a few months increases population awareness and at the same time brings disaster managers to assess risks and evaluate evacuation options already in the pre-disaster phase. This seismic swarm and the associated period of increased general awareness thus add an additional temporal component to the scenario, initiating response considerations earlier as when compared to a single shock scenario. In addition, the seismic vulnerability of buildings may increase due to damage accumulation, with higher probability of collapse at a given earthquake intensity. With regard to best possible impact mitigation, detailed spatio-temporal exposure and vulnerability characteristics of population and associated assets have to be analyzed for all crisis stages

1. Arctic cryosphere response in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project G3 and G4 scenarios

Berdahl, Mira; Robock, Alan; Ji, Duoying; Moore, John C.; Jones, Andy; Kravitz, Ben; Watanabe, Shingo

2014-02-01

We analyzed output from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project for the two most "realistic" scenarios, which use the representative concentration pathway of 4.5 Wm-2 by 2100 (RCP4.5) as the control run and inject sulfate aerosol precursors into the stratosphere. The first experiment, G3, is specified to keep RCP4.5 top of atmosphere net radiation at 2020 values by injection of sulfate aerosols, and the second, G4, injects 5 Tg SO2 per year. We ask whether geoengineering by injection of sulfate aerosols into the lower stratosphere from the years 2020 to 2070 is able to prevent the demise of Northern Hemispere minimum annual sea ice extent or slow spring Northern Hemispere snow cover loss. We show that in all available models, despite geoengineering efforts, September sea ice extents still decrease from 2020 to 2070, although not as quickly as in RCP4.5. In two of five models, total September ice loss occurs before 2060. Spring snow extent is increased from 2020 to 2070 compared to RCP4.5 although there is still a negative trend in 3 of 4 models. Because of the climate system lag in responding to the existing radiative forcing, to stop Arctic sea ice and snow from continuing to melt, the imposed forcing would have to be large enough to also counteract the existing radiative imbalance. After the cessation of sulfate aerosol injection in 2070, the climate system rebounds to the warmer RCP4.5 state quickly, and thus, any sea ice or snow retention as a result of geoengineering is lost within a decade.

2. Security Analysis of Selected AMI Failure Scenarios Using Agent Based Game Theoretic Simulation

Abercrombie, Robert K [ORNL; Schlicher, Bob G [ORNL; Sheldon, Frederick T [ORNL

2014-01-01

Information security analysis can be performed using game theory implemented in dynamic Agent Based Game Theoretic (ABGT) simulations. Such simulations can be verified with the results from game theory analysis and further used to explore larger scale, real world scenarios involving multiple attackers, defenders, and information assets. We concentrated our analysis on the Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) functional domain which the National Electric Sector Cyber security Organization Resource (NESCOR) working group has currently documented 29 failure scenarios. The strategy for the game was developed by analyzing five electric sector representative failure scenarios contained in the AMI functional domain. From these five selected scenarios, we characterize them into three specific threat categories affecting confidentiality, integrity and availability (CIA). The analysis using our ABGT simulation demonstrates how to model the AMI functional domain using a set of rationalized game theoretic rules decomposed from the failure scenarios in terms of how those scenarios might impact the AMI network with respect to CIA.

3. Creative Classrooms through Game-Based Role-Play Scenarios

Gjedde, Lisa

2014-01-01

with learning opportunities that challenge and develop their ability towards creative problem solving, as well as developing empathy and cultural understanding. This paper will present preliminary results from the research project that through a mixed methods approach has explored the implementation of games...

4. Tactical decision games - developing scenario-based training for decision-making in distributed teams

Lauche, K.; Crichton, M.; Bayerl, P.S.

2009-01-01

Team training should reflect the increasing complexity of decision-making environments. Guidelines for scenario-based training were adopted for a distributed setting and tested in a pilot training session with a distributed team in the offshore oil industry. Participants valued the scenario as chall

5. TRIDEC Cloud - a Web-based Platform for Tsunami Early Warning tested with NEAMWave14 Scenarios

Hammitzsch, Martin; Spazier, Johannes; Reißland, Sven; Necmioglu, Ocal; Comoglu, Mustafa; Ozer Sozdinler, Ceren; Carrilho, Fernando; Wächter, Joachim

2015-04-01

In times of cloud computing and ubiquitous computing the use of concepts and paradigms introduced by information and communications technology (ICT) have to be considered even for early warning systems (EWS). Based on the experiences and the knowledge gained in research projects new technologies are exploited to implement a cloud-based and web-based platform - the TRIDEC Cloud - to open up new prospects for EWS. The platform in its current version addresses tsunami early warning and mitigation. It merges several complementary external and in-house cloud-based services for instant tsunami propagation calculations and automated background computation with graphics processing units (GPU), for web-mapping of hazard specific geospatial data, and for serving relevant functionality to handle, share, and communicate threat specific information in a collaborative and distributed environment. The TRIDEC Cloud can be accessed in two different modes, the monitoring mode and the exercise-and-training mode. The monitoring mode provides important functionality required to act in a real event. So far, the monitoring mode integrates historic and real-time sea level data and latest earthquake information. The integration of sources is supported by a simple and secure interface. The exercise and training mode enables training and exercises with virtual scenarios. This mode disconnects real world systems and connects with a virtual environment that receives virtual earthquake information and virtual sea level data re-played by a scenario player. Thus operators and other stakeholders are able to train skills and prepare for real events and large exercises. The GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI), and the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) have used the opportunity provided by NEAMWave14 to test the TRIDEC Cloud as a collaborative activity based on previous partnership and commitments at

6. Remote-sensing based approach to forecast habitat quality under climate change scenarios

Requena-Mullor, Juan M.; López, Enrique; Castro, Antonio J.; Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Castro, Hermelindo; Reyes, Andrés; Cabello, Javier

2017-01-01

As climate change is expected to have a significant impact on species distributions, there is an urgent challenge to provide reliable information to guide conservation biodiversity policies. In addressing this challenge, we propose a remote sensing-based approach to forecast the future habitat quality for European badger, a species not abundant and at risk of local extinction in the arid environments of southeastern Spain, by incorporating environmental variables related with the ecosystem functioning and correlated with climate and land use. Using ensemble prediction methods, we designed global spatial distribution models for the distribution range of badger using presence-only data and climate variables. Then, we constructed regional models for an arid region in the southeast Spain using EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) derived variables and weighting the pseudo-absences with the global model projections applied to this region. Finally, we forecast the badger potential spatial distribution in the time period 2071–2099 based on IPCC scenarios incorporating the uncertainty derived from the predicted values of EVI-derived variables. By including remotely sensed descriptors of the temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of ecosystem functioning into spatial distribution models, results suggest that future forecast is less favorable for European badgers than not including them. In addition, change in spatial pattern of habitat suitability may become higher than when forecasts are based just on climate variables. Since the validity of future forecast only based on climate variables is currently questioned, conservation policies supported by such information could have a biased vision and overestimate or underestimate the potential changes in species distribution derived from climate change. The incorporation of ecosystem functional attributes derived from remote sensing in the modeling of future forecast may contribute to the improvement of the detection of ecological

7. Remote-sensing based approach to forecast habitat quality under climate change scenarios.

Requena-Mullor, Juan M; López, Enrique; Castro, Antonio J; Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Castro, Hermelindo; Reyes, Andrés; Cabello, Javier

2017-01-01

As climate change is expected to have a significant impact on species distributions, there is an urgent challenge to provide reliable information to guide conservation biodiversity policies. In addressing this challenge, we propose a remote sensing-based approach to forecast the future habitat quality for European badger, a species not abundant and at risk of local extinction in the arid environments of southeastern Spain, by incorporating environmental variables related with the ecosystem functioning and correlated with climate and land use. Using ensemble prediction methods, we designed global spatial distribution models for the distribution range of badger using presence-only data and climate variables. Then, we constructed regional models for an arid region in the southeast Spain using EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) derived variables and weighting the pseudo-absences with the global model projections applied to this region. Finally, we forecast the badger potential spatial distribution in the time period 2071-2099 based on IPCC scenarios incorporating the uncertainty derived from the predicted values of EVI-derived variables. By including remotely sensed descriptors of the temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of ecosystem functioning into spatial distribution models, results suggest that future forecast is less favorable for European badgers than not including them. In addition, change in spatial pattern of habitat suitability may become higher than when forecasts are based just on climate variables. Since the validity of future forecast only based on climate variables is currently questioned, conservation policies supported by such information could have a biased vision and overestimate or underestimate the potential changes in species distribution derived from climate change. The incorporation of ecosystem functional attributes derived from remote sensing in the modeling of future forecast may contribute to the improvement of the detection of ecological

8. The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M – Part 2: Climate response and scenario projections

T. Iversen

2013-03-01

Full Text Available NorESM is a generic name of the Norwegian earth system model. The first version is named NorESM1, and has been applied with medium spatial resolution to provide results for CMIP5 (http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/index.html without (NorESM1-M and with (NorESM1-ME interactive carbon-cycling. Together with the accompanying paper by Bentsen et al. (2012, this paper documents that the core version NorESM1-M is a valuable global climate model for research and for providing complementary results to the evaluation of possible anthropogenic climate change. NorESM1-M is based on the model CCSM4 operated at NCAR, but the ocean model is replaced by a modified version of MICOM and the atmospheric model is extended with online calculations of aerosols, their direct effect and their indirect effect on warm clouds. Model validation is presented in the companion paper (Bentsen et al., 2012. NorESM1-M is estimated to have equilibrium climate sensitivity of ca. 2.9 K and a transient climate response of ca. 1.4 K. This sensitivity is in the lower range amongst the models contributing to CMIP5. Cloud feedbacks dampen the response, and a strong AMOC reduces the heat fraction available for increasing near-surface temperatures, for evaporation and for melting ice. The future projections based on RCP scenarios yield a global surface air temperature increase of almost one standard deviation lower than a 15-model average. Summer sea-ice is projected to decrease considerably by 2100 and disappear completely for RCP8.5. The AMOC is projected to decrease by 12%, 15–17%, and 32% for the RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively. Precipitation is projected to increase in the tropics, decrease in the subtropics and in southern parts of the northern extra-tropics during summer, and otherwise increase in most of the extra-tropics. Changes in the atmospheric water cycle indicate that precipitation events over continents will become more intense and dry spells more frequent. Extra

9. Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City Under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios

Petkova, Elisaveta P.; Vink, Jan K.; Horton, Radley M.; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bader, Daniel A.; Francis, Joe D.; Kinney, Patrick L.

2016-01-01

High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information necessary to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics. This study has derived projections of temperature-related mortality in New York City by taking into account future patterns of adaptation or demographic change, both of which can have profound influences on future health burdens. We adopt a novel approach to modeling heat adaptation by incorporating an analysis of the observed population response to heat in New York City over the course of eight decades. This approach projects heat-related mortality until the end of the 21st century based on observed trends in adaptation over a substantial portion of the 20th century. In addition, we incorporate a range of new scenarios for population change until the end of the 21st century. We then estimate future heat-related deaths in New York City by combining the changing temperature-mortality relationship and population scenarios with downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).The median number of projected annual heat-related deaths across the 33 GCMs varied greatly by RCP and adaptation and population change scenario, ranging from 167 to 3331 in the 2080s compared to 638 heat-related deaths annually between 2000 and 2006.These findings provide a more complete picture of the range of potential future heat-related mortality risks across the 21st century in New York, and highlight the importance of both demographic change and adaptation responses in modifying future risks.

10. Dynamic Analysis of Nuclear Waste Generation Based on Nuclear Fuel Cycle Transition Scenarios

Yoon, S. R. [University of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Ko, W. I. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-10-15

According to the recommendations submitted by the Public Engagement Commission on Spent Nuclear Fuel Management (PECOS), the government was advised to pick the site for an underground laboratory and interim storage facilities before the end of 2020 followed by the related research for permanent and underground disposal of spent fuel after 10 years. In the middle of the main issues, the factors of environmentally friendly and safe way to handle nuclear waste are inextricable from nuclear power generating nation to ensure the sustainability of nuclear power. For this purposes, the closed nuclear fuel cycle has been developed regarding deep geological disposal, pyroprocessing, and burner type sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFRs) in Korea. Among two methods of an equilibrium model and a dynamic model generally used for screening nuclear fuel cycle system, the dynamic model is more appropriate to envisage country-specific environment with the transition phase in the long term and significant to estimate meaningful impacts based on the timedependent behavior of harmful wastes. This study aims at analyzing the spent nuclear fuel generation based on the long-term nuclear fuel cycle transition scenarios considered at up-to-date country specific conditions and comparing long term advantages of the developed nuclear fuel cycle option between once-through cycle and Pyro-SFR cycle. In this study, a dynamic analysis was carried out to estimate the long-term projection of nuclear electricity generation, installed capacity, spent nuclear fuel arising in different fuel cycle scenarios based on the up-to-date national energy plans.

11. Tensor-based projection depth

Hu, Yonggang; Wu, Yi; 10.3150/10-BEJ317

2012-01-01

The conventional definition of a depth function is vector-based. In this paper, a novel projection depth (PD) technique directly based on tensors, such as matrices, is instead proposed. Tensor projection depth (TPD) is still an ideal depth function and its computation can be achieved through the iteration of PD. Furthermore, we also discuss the cases for sparse samples and higher order tensors. Experimental results in data classification with the two projection depths show that TPD performs much better than PD for data with a natural tensor form, and even when the data have a natural vector form, TPD appears to perform no worse than PD.

12. Lunar base scenario cost estimates: Lunar base systems study task 6.1

1988-01-01

The projected development and production costs of each of the Lunar Base's systems are described and unit costs are estimated for transporting the systems to the lunar surface and for setting up the system.

13. Projected temperature-related deaths in ten large U.S. metropolitan areas under different climate change scenarios.

Weinberger, Kate R; Haykin, Leah; Eliot, Melissa N; Schwartz, Joel D; Gasparrini, Antonio; Wellenius, Gregory A

2017-10-01

There is an established U-shaped association between daily temperature and mortality. Temperature changes projected through the end of century are expected to lead to higher rates of heat-related mortality but also lower rates of cold-related mortality, such that the net change in temperature-related mortality will depend on location. We quantified the change in heat-, cold-, and temperature-related mortality rates through the end of the century across 10 large US metropolitan areas. We applied location-specific projections of future temperature from over 40 downscaled climate models to exposure-response functions relating daily temperature and mortality in 10 US metropolitan areas to estimate the change in temperature-related mortality rates in 2045-2055 and 2085-2095 compared to 1992-2002, under two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). We further calculated the total number of deaths attributable to temperature in 1997, 2050, and 2090 in each metropolitan area, either assuming constant population or accounting for projected population growth. In each of the 10 metropolitan areas, projected future temperatures were associated with lower rates of cold-related deaths and higher rates of heat-related deaths. Under the higher-emission RCP 8.5 scenario, 8 of the 10 metropolitan areas are projected to experience a net increase in annual temperature-related deaths per million people by 2086-2095, ranging from a net increase of 627 (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: 239, 1018) deaths per million in Los Angeles to a net decrease of 59 (95% eCI: -485, 314) deaths per million in Boston. Applying these projected temperature-related mortality rates to projected population size underscores the large public health burden of temperature. Increases in the heat-related death rate are projected to outweigh decreases in the cold-related death rate in 8 out of 10 cities studied under a high emissions scenario. Adhering to a lower greenhouse gas emissions

14. On grey relation projection model based on projection pursuit

Wang Shuo; Yang Shanlin; Ma Xijun

2008-01-01

Multidimensional grey relation projection value can be synthesized as one-dimensional projection value by u-sing projection pursuit model.The larger the projection value is,the better the model.Thus,according to the projection value,the best one can be chosen from the model aggregation.Because projection pursuit modeling based on accelera-ting genetic algorithm can simplify the implementation procedure of the projection pursuit technique and overcome its complex calculation as well as the difficulty in implementing its program,a new method can be obtained for choosing the best grey relation projection model based on the projection pursuit technique.

15. Accessing technical data bases using STDS: A collection of scenarios

Hardgrave, W. T.

1975-01-01

A line by line description is given of sessions using the set-theoretic data system (STDS) to interact with technical data bases. The data bases contain data from actual applications at NASA Langley Research Center. The report is meant to be a tutorial document that accompanies set processing in a network environment.

16. Mannich Bases: An Important Pharmacophore in Present Scenario

Suman Bala

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Mannich bases are the end products of Mannich reaction and are known as beta-amino ketone carrying compounds. Mannich reaction is a carbon-carbon bond forming nucleophilic addition reaction and is a key step in synthesis of a wide variety of natural products, pharmaceuticals, and so forth. Mannich reaction is important for the construction of nitrogen containing compounds. There is a number of aminoalkyl chain bearing Mannich bases like fluoxetine, atropine, ethacrynic acid, trihexyphenidyl, and so forth with high curative value. The literature studies enlighten the fact that Mannich bases are very reactive and recognized to possess potent diverse activities like anti-inflammatory, anticancer, antifilarial, antibacterial, antifungal, anticonvulsant, anthelmintic, antitubercular, analgesic, anti-HIV, antimalarial, antipsychotic, antiviral activities and so forth. The biological activity of Mannich bases is mainly attributed to α, β-unsaturated ketone which can be generated by deamination of hydrogen atom of the amine group.

17. Supporting primary-level mathematics teachers’ collaboration in designing and using technology-based scenarios

Misfeldt, Morten; Zacho, Lis

2016-01-01

In this article, we address how the design of educational scenarios can support teachers’ adoption of both technology and open-ended projects indorsing creativity and innovation. We do that by describing how groups of teachers develop digital learning environments supporting using a combination...... of GeoGebra and Google sites. Both teachers and pupils work with the concept of “game” as something they design, and furthermore, the pupils immerse themselves into the scenarios that the teachers create in a way similar to “playing a game.” We investigate teachers participation in collaborative...... development and testing through qualitative means, aiming to describe the teachers’ appropriation of (1) GeoGebra as a tool for doing and teaching mathematics, and (2) game as a metaphor supporting open-ended projects addressing creativity and innovation in the classroom. The data from the project suggest...

18. The role of scenarios and demonstrators in promoting shared understanding in innovation projects

Steen, M.G.D.; Buijs, J.; Williams, D.

2014-01-01

It can be challenging for people in an innovation project to develop a shared understanding of the project's overall vision and of what they need to do practically—especially if the project is organized as networked innovation and follows a designerly approach. Yet shared understanding is critical f

19. Integrating of scenario-based simulation into radiology education to improve critical thinking skills

Abuzaid MM

2016-12-01

Full Text Available MM Abuzaid, W Elshami Medical Diagnostic Imaging Department, College of Health Sciences, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates Introduction: For many years, conventional radiographic films have been used for radiology education. Nevertheless, advances in imaging modalities, image quality, and the number of images produced by various methods have seen a move toward digital formats. Certainly, a patient’s case has a significant value in medical education; it can transfer theoretical knowledge to real experiences. The aim of this study is to evaluate the value of scenario-based simulations in radiology education and their impact on professional learning outcomes.Materials and methods: Patient scenarios were collected and converted to digital teaching files, each supported by clinical history, anatomy illustration, as well as medical and radiological investigation. The scenarios were presented online to radiology professionals for 6 months. At the end of the study, the scenarios were evaluated regarding design, content, and their role in improving critical thinking.Results: Twenty-two scenarios were published online covering various radiology areas. Two hundred and thirty-eight radiology professionals were invited, and 84% participated in the evaluation process. Each participant completed an average of 13 scenarios with an approximate time of 23 minutes for each. The majority of participants agreed or strongly agreed that the scenarios were well designed (94%, were appropriate to their level of knowledge (70%, and helped them in critical thinking and in understanding similar cases (79%. Conclusion: The integration of scenario-based simulations in radiology education led to a positive impact on learning outcomes, formative interactive learning, and filling the gap between theory and practice. Moreover, it promoted critical thinking skills and allowed radiology professionals to demonstrate their knowledge of similar cases

20. Scenario-based design space exploration of MPSoCs

van Stralen, P.; Pimentel, A.

2010-01-01

Early design space exploration (DSE) is a key ingredient in system-level design of MPSoC-based embedded systems. The state of the art in this field typically still explores systems under a single, fixed application workload. In reality, however, the applications are concurrently executing and

1. Scenario-based design space exploration of MPSoCs

van Stralen, P.; Pimentel, A.

2010-01-01

Early design space exploration (DSE) is a key ingredient in system-level design of MPSoC-based embedded systems. The state of the art in this field typically still explores systems under a single, fixed application workload. In reality, however, the applications are concurrently executing and conten

2. Six scenarios of exploiting an ontology based, mobilized learning environment

Kismihók, G.; Szabó, I.; Vas, R.

2012-01-01

In this article, six different exploitation possibilities of an educational ontology based, mobilized learning management system are presented. The focal point of this system is the educational ontology model. The first version of this educational ontology model serves as a foundation for curriculum

3. Product design pattern based on big data-driven scenario

Conggang Yu

2016-07-01

Full Text Available This article discusses about new product design patterns in the big data era, gives designer a new rational thinking way, and is a new way to understand the design of the product. Based on the key criteria of the product design process, category, element, and product are used to input the data, which comprises concrete data and abstract data as an enlargement of the criteria of product design process for the establishment of a big data-driven product design pattern’s model. Moreover, an experiment and a product design case are conducted to verify the feasibility of the new pattern. Ultimately, we will conclude that the data-driven product design has two patterns: one is the concrete data supporting the product design, namely “product–data–product” pattern, and the second is based on the value of the abstract data for product design, namely “data–product–data” pattern. Through the data, users are involving themselves in the design development process. Data and product form a huge network, and data plays a role of connection or node. So the essence of the design is to find a new connection based on element, and to find a new node based on category.

4. Mid- and long-term climate projections for fragmented and delayed-action scenarios

Schaeffer, M.; Gohar, Laila; Kriegler, Elmar; Lowe, J.

2015-01-01

This paper explores the climate consequences of “delayed near-termaction” and “staged accession” scenarios for limiting warming below 2 °C. The stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations at low levels requires a large-scale transformation of the energy system. Depending on policy choices, there

5. Mid- and long-term climate projections for fragmented and delayed-action scenarios

Schaeffer, Michiel; Gohar, Laila; Kriegler, Elmar; Lowe, Jason; Riahi, Keywan; van Vuuren, Detlef

2015-01-01

This paper explores the climate consequences of ". delayed near-term action" and ". staged accession" scenarios for limiting warming below 2. °C. The stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations at low levels requires a large-scale transformation of the energy system. Depending on policy choices,

6. Combining participative backcasting and exploratory scenario development: Experiences from the SCENES project

Kok, K.; Vliet, van M.; Barlund, I.; Dubel, A.; Sendzimir, J.

2011-01-01

Social, natural and cultural systems are changing rapidly, influencing the future of Europe's fresh waters. One of the drivers shaping this future is the implementation of the Water Framework Directive. Participatory scenario development is well-suited to the challenges posed by the WFD to develop a

7. The implications of climate change scenario selection for future streamflow projection in the Upper Colorado River Basin

B. L. Harding

2012-11-01

Full Text Available The impact of projected 21st century climate conditions on streamflow in the Upper Colorado River Basin was estimated using a multi-model ensemble approach wherein the downscaled outputs of 112 future climate projections from 16 global climate models (GCMs were used to drive a macroscale hydrology model. By the middle of the century, the impacts on streamflow range, over the entire ensemble, from a decrease of approximately 30% to an increase of approximately the same magnitude. Although prior studies and associated media coverage have focused heavily on the likelihood of a drier future for the Colorado River Basin, approximately 25 to 35% of the ensemble of runs, by 2099 and 2039, respectively, result in no change or increases in streamflow. The broad range of projected impacts is primarily the result of uncertainty in projections of future precipitation, and a relatively small part of the variability of precipitation across the projections can be attributed to the effect of emissions pathways. The simulated evolution of future temperature is strongly influenced by emissions, but temperature has a smaller influence than precipitation on flow. Period change statistics (i.e., the change in flow from one 30-yr period to another vary as much within a model ensemble as between models and emissions pathways. Even by the end of the current century, the variability across the projections is much greater than changes in the ensemble mean. The relatively large ensemble analysis described herein provides perspective on earlier studies that have used fewer scenarios, and suggests that impact analyses relying on one or a few climate scenarios are unacceptably influenced by the choice of projections.

8. SCENARIO AND TARGET SIMULATION FOR A GROUND BASED MULTIFUNCTION PHASED ARRAY RADAR

2008-01-01

This paper describes a scenario and target simulation which operates in non real-time to provide full closed-loop operation of the ground based multifunction phased array radar simulation system in support of ballistic missile defence experiments against countermeasure.By simulating the target scattering signature and dynamical signature,this scenario and target simulation provide re- alistic scenario source to evaluate the system performance of multifunction phased array radar,and the key algorithms verification and validation such as target tracking,multi-target imaging and target recognition.

9. vNet Zero Energy for Radio Base Stations- Balearic Scenario

Sabater, Pere; Mihovska, Albena Dimitrova; Pol, Andreu Moia;

2016-01-01

based on coal and fossil fuels which is not an environmentally sustainable scenario. The aim of this study is to identify the processes that would reduce the energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, designing a target scenario featuring "zero CO2 emissions" and "100% renewable energies" in RBS....... The energy costs, CO2 emissions and data traffic data used for the study are generated by a sample of RBS from the Balearic Islands. The results are shown in terms of energy performance for a normal and net zero emissions scenarios....

10. A Scenario-Based Technique for Developing SOA Technical Governance

2009-06-01

18  Figure 5:  CBDi-SAE SOA Governance Framework 19  Figure 6:  IBM SOA Governance and Management Method 20  Figure 7:  ITIL Core Framework 21...organizations, even if they are not SOA specific, such as the Information Technol- ogy Infrastructure Library ( ITIL ) [10] These frameworks can be very...based on a standard or a widely recommended approach such as ITIL , one custom-built for the organization, or a hybrid of all of the preceding. For

11. Environmental assessment of amine-based carbon capture Scenario modelling with life cycle assessment (LCA)

Brekke, Andreas; Askham, Cecilia; Modahl, Ingunn Saur; Vold, Bjoern Ivar; Johnsen, Fredrik Moltu

2012-07-01

This report contains a first attempt at introducing the environmental impacts associated with amines and derivatives in a life cycle assessment (LCA) of gas power production with carbon capture and comparing these with other environmental impacts associated with the production system. The report aims to identify data gaps and methodological challenges connected both to modelling toxicity of amines and derivatives and weighting of environmental impacts. A scenario based modelling exercise was performed on a theoretical gas power plant with carbon capture, where emission levels of nitrosamines were varied between zero (gas power without CCS) to a worst case level (outside the probable range of actual carbon capture facilities). Because of extensive research and development in the areas of solvents and emissions from carbon capture facilities in the latter years, data used in the exercise may be outdated and results should therefore not be taken at face value.The results from the exercise showed: According to UseTox, emissions of nitrosamines are less important than emissions of formaldehyde with regard to toxicity related to operation of (i.e. both inputs to and outputs from) a carbon capture facility. If characterisation factors for emissions of metals are included, these outweigh all other toxic emissions in the study. None of the most recent weighting methods in LCA include characterisation factors for nitrosamines, and these are therefore not part of the environmental ranking.These results shows that the EDecIDe project has an important role to play in developing LCA methodology useful for assessing the environmental performance of amine based carbon capture in particular and CCS in general. The EDecIDe project will examine the toxicity models used in LCA in more detail, specifically UseTox. The applicability of the LCA compartment models and site specificity issues for a Norwegian/Arctic situation will be explored. This applies to the environmental compartments

12. Continued multidisciplinary project-based learning - implementation in health informatics.

Wessel, C; Spreckelsen, C

2009-01-01

Problem- and project-based learning are approved methods to train students, graduates and post-graduates in scientific and other professional skills. The students are trained on realistic scenarios in a broader context. For students specializing in health informatics we introduced continued multidisciplinary project-based learning (CM-PBL) at a department of medical informatics. The training approach addresses both students of medicine and students of computer science. The students are full members of an ongoing research project and develop a project-related application or module, or explore or evaluate a sub-project. Two teachers guide and review the students' work. The training on scientific work follows a workflow with defined milestones. The team acts as peer group. By participating in the research team's work the students are trained on professional skills. A research project on a web-based information system on hospitals built the scenario for the realistic context. The research team consisted of up to 14 active members at a time, who were scientists and students of computer science and medicine. The well communicated educational approach and team policy fostered the participation of the students. Formative assessment and evaluation showed a considerable improvement of the students' skills and a high participant satisfaction. Alternative education approaches such as project-based learning empower students to acquire scientific knowledge and professional skills, especially the ability of life-long learning, multidisciplinary team work and social responsibility.

13. Enhanced mesoscale climate projections in TAR and AR5 IPCC scenarios: a case study in a Mediterranean climate (Araucanía Region, south central Chile).

Orrego, R; Abarca-Del-Río, R; Ávila, A; Morales, L

2016-01-01

Climate change scenarios are computed on a large scale, not accounting for local variations presented in historical data and related to human scale. Based on historical records, we validate a baseline (1962-1990) and correct the bias of A2 and B2 regional projections for the end of twenty-first century (2070-2100) issued from a high resolution dynamical downscaled (using PRECIS mesoscale model, hereinafter DGF-PRECIS) of Hadley GCM from the IPCC 3rd Assessment Report (TAR). This is performed for the Araucanía Region (Chile; 37°-40°S and 71°-74°W) using two different bias correction methodologies. Next, we study high-resolution precipitations to find monthly patterns such as seasonal variations, rainfall months, and the geographical effect on these two scenarios. Finally, we compare the TAR projections with those from the recent Assessment Report 5 (AR5) to find regional precipitation patterns and update the Chilean `projection. To show the effects of climate change projections, we compute the rainfall climatology for the Araucanía Region, including the impact of ENSO cycles (El Niño and La Niña events). The corrected climate projection from the high-resolution dynamical downscaled model of the TAR database (DGF-PRECIS) show annual precipitation decreases: B2 (-19.19 %, -287 ± 42 mm) and A2 (-43.38 %, -655 ± 27.4 mm per year. Furthermore, both projections increase the probability of lower rainfall months (lower than 100 mm per month) to 64.2 and 72.5 % for B2 and A2, respectively.

14. Scenario-based radiation therapy margins for patient setup, organ motion, and particle range uncertainty

Bokrantz, Rasmus; Fredriksson, Albin

2017-02-01

This work extends and validates the scenario-based generalization of margins presented in Fredriksson and Bokrantz (2016 Phys. Med. Biol. 61 2067–82). Scenario-based margins are, in their original form, a method for robust planning under setup uncertainty where the sum of a plan evaluation criterion over a set of scenarios is optimized. The voxelwise penalties in the summands are weighted by a distribution of coefficients defined such that the method is mathematically equivalent to the use of conventional geometric margins if the scenario doses are calculated using the static dose cloud approximation. The purpose of this work is to extend scenario-based margins to general types of geometric uncertainty and to validate their use on clinical cases. Specifically, we outline how to incorporate density heterogeneity in the calculation of coefficients and demonstrate the extended method’s ability to safeguard against setup errors, organ motion, and range shifts (and combinations thereof). For a water phantom with a high-density slab partly covering the target, the extended form of scenario-based margins method led to improved target coverage robustness compared to the original method. At most minor differences in robustness were, however, observed between the extended and original method for a prostate and two lung patients, all treated with intensity-modulated proton therapy, yielding evidence that the calculation of weighting coefficients is generally insensitive to tissue heterogeneities. The scenario-based margins were, furthermore, verified to provide a comparable level of robustness to expected value and worst case optimization while circumventing some known shortcomings of these methods.

15. Scenario-based radiation therapy margins for patient setup, organ motion, and particle range uncertainty.

Bokrantz, Rasmus; Fredriksson, Albin

2017-02-21

This work extends and validates the scenario-based generalization of margins presented in Fredriksson and Bokrantz (2016 Phys. Med. Biol. 61 2067-82). Scenario-based margins are, in their original form, a method for robust planning under setup uncertainty where the sum of a plan evaluation criterion over a set of scenarios is optimized. The voxelwise penalties in the summands are weighted by a distribution of coefficients defined such that the method is mathematically equivalent to the use of conventional geometric margins if the scenario doses are calculated using the static dose cloud approximation. The purpose of this work is to extend scenario-based margins to general types of geometric uncertainty and to validate their use on clinical cases. Specifically, we outline how to incorporate density heterogeneity in the calculation of coefficients and demonstrate the extended method's ability to safeguard against setup errors, organ motion, and range shifts (and combinations thereof). For a water phantom with a high-density slab partly covering the target, the extended form of scenario-based margins method led to improved target coverage robustness compared to the original method. At most minor differences in robustness were, however, observed between the extended and original method for a prostate and two lung patients, all treated with intensity-modulated proton therapy, yielding evidence that the calculation of weighting coefficients is generally insensitive to tissue heterogeneities. The scenario-based margins were, furthermore, verified to provide a comparable level of robustness to expected value and worst case optimization while circumventing some known shortcomings of these methods.

16. Improvement of nursing students' learning outcomes through scenario-based skills training

Uysal, Nurcan

2016-01-01

Abstract Objective: this study analyzed the influence of scenario-based skills training on students' learning skills. Method: the author evaluated the nursing skills laboratory exam papers of 605 sophomores in nursing programs for seven years. The study determined the common mistakes of students and the laboratory work was designed in a scenario-based format. The effectiveness of this method was evaluated by assessing the number of errors the students committed and their achievement scores in laboratory examinations. This study presents the students' common mistakes in intramuscular and subcutaneous injection and their development of intravenous access skills, included in the nursing skills laboratory examination. Results: an analysis of the students' most common mistakes revealed that the most common was not following the principles of asepsis for all three skills (intramuscular, subcutaneous injection, intravenous access) in the first year of the scenario-based training. The students' exam achievement scores increased gradually, except in the fall semester of the academic year 2009-2010. The study found that the scenario-based skills training reduced students' common mistakes in examinations and enhanced their performance on exams. Conclusion: this method received a positive response from both students and instructors. The scenario-based training is available for use in addition to other skills training methods. PMID:27508922

17. Improvement of nursing students' learning outcomes through scenario-based skills training

Nurcan Uysal

Full Text Available Abstract Objective: this study analyzed the influence of scenario-based skills training on students' learning skills. Method: the author evaluated the nursing skills laboratory exam papers of 605 sophomores in nursing programs for seven years. The study determined the common mistakes of students and the laboratory work was designed in a scenario-based format. The effectiveness of this method was evaluated by assessing the number of errors the students committed and their achievement scores in laboratory examinations. This study presents the students' common mistakes in intramuscular and subcutaneous injection and their development of intravenous access skills, included in the nursing skills laboratory examination. Results: an analysis of the students' most common mistakes revealed that the most common was not following the principles of asepsis for all three skills (intramuscular, subcutaneous injection, intravenous access in the first year of the scenario-based training. The students' exam achievement scores increased gradually, except in the fall semester of the academic year 2009-2010. The study found that the scenario-based skills training reduced students' common mistakes in examinations and enhanced their performance on exams. Conclusion: this method received a positive response from both students and instructors. The scenario-based training is available for use in addition to other skills training methods.

18. Glomed-Land: a research project to study the effect of global change in contrasted mediterranean landscapes and future scenarios

Ruiz-Sinoga, José D.; Hueso-González, Paloma; León-Gross, Teodoro; Molina, Julián; Remond, Ricardo; Martínez-Murillo, Juan F.

2017-04-01

The Global Change is referred to the occurrence of great environmental changes associated to climatic fluctuations and human activity as wel (Vitousek et al., 1997; Steffen et al., 2004; Dearing et al., 2006). García-Ruiz et al. (2015) indicated that the relief varies very slowly in time while the changes in vegetation, overland flow generation and erosion occurred very rapidly and conditioned by their interactions and the climate variability as well. The GLOMED-LAND Project has its bases and scientific justification on the combination of the experience of the members of the research team, from one side, in the analysis of the dynamics and eco-geomorphological and climatic processes in Mediterranean environments of southern Spain, in the context of current Global change, and from another, in the study, development and application of new tools for simulation and modelling of future scenarios, and finally, in the analysis of the impact that society exercises the broadcast media related to the problem derived from the awareness and adaptation to Global change. Climate change (CC), directly affects the elements that compose the landscape. Both in the analysis of future climate scenarios raised by the IPCC (2013), such as the regionalisation carried out by AEMET, the Mediterranean region and, especially, the South of Spain, - with its defined longitudinal pluviometric gradient - configured as one of the areas of greatest uncertainty, reflected in a higher concentration of temporal rainfall, and even a reduction in the rainfall. Faced with this situation, the CC can modify the current landscape setting, with all the environmental impacts that this would entail for the terrestrial ecosystems and the systemic services rendered to the society. The combination of different work scales allows the analysis of the dynamics of the landscape and the consequence of its modifications on, hydro-geomorphological processes, closely related to degradation processes that can affect the

19. Forecasting the effects of coastal protection and restoration projects on wetland morphology in coastal Louisiana under multiple environmental uncertainty scenarios

Couvillion, Brady R.; Steyer, Gregory D.; Wang, Hongqing; Beck, Holly J.; Rybczyk, John M.

2013-01-01

Few landscape scale models have assessed the effects of coastal protection and restoration projects on wetland morphology while taking into account important uncertainties in environmental factors such as sea-level rise (SLR) and subsidence. In support of Louisiana's 2012 Coastal Master Plan, we developed a spatially explicit wetland morphology model and coupled it with other predictive models. The model is capable of predicting effects of protection and restoration projects on wetland area, landscape configuration, surface elevation, and soil organic carbon (SOC) storage under multiple environmental uncertainty scenarios. These uncertainty scenarios included variability in parameters such as eustatic SLR (ESLR), subsidence rate, and Mississippi River discharge. Models were run for a 2010–2060 simulation period. Model results suggest that under a “future-without-action” condition (FWOA), coastal Louisiana is at risk of losing between 2118 and 4677 km2 of land over the next 50 years, but with protection and restoration projects proposed in the Master Plan, between 40% and 75% of that loss could be mitigated. Moreover, model results indicate that under a FWOA condition, SOC storage (to a depth of 1 m) could decrease by between 108 and 250 million metric tons, a loss of 12% to 30% of the total coastwide SOC, but with the Master Plan implemented, between 35% and 74% of the SOC loss could be offset. Long-term maintenance of project effects was best attained in areas of low SLR and subsidence, with a sediment source to support marsh accretion. Our findings suggest that despite the efficacy of restoration projects in mitigating losses in certain areas, net loss of wetlands in coastal Louisiana is likely to continue. Model results suggest certain areas may eventually be lost regardless of proposed restoration investment, and, as such, other techniques and strategies of adaptation may have to be utilized in these areas.

20. Projected wave conditions in the Eastern North Pacific under the influence of two CMIP5 climate scenarios

Erikson, Li H.; Hegermiller, Christie; Barnard, Patrick; Ruggiero, Peter; van Ormondt, Martin

2015-01-01

Hindcast and 21st century winds, simulated by General Circulation Models (GCMs), were used to drive global- and regional-scale spectral wind-wave generation models in the Pacific Ocean Basin to assess future wave conditions along the margins of the North American west coast and Hawaiian Islands. Three-hourly winds simulated by four separate GCMs were used to generate an ensemble of wave conditions for a recent historical time-period (1976–2005) and projections for the mid and latter parts of the 21st century under two radiative forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), as defined by the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) experiments. Comparisons of results from historical simulations with wave buoy and ERA-Interim wave reanalysis data indicate acceptable model performance of wave heights, periods, and directions, giving credence to generating projections. Mean and extreme wave heights are projected to decrease along much of the North American west coast. Extreme wave heights are projected to decrease south of ∼50°N and increase to the north, whereas extreme wave periods are projected to mostly increase. Incident wave directions associated with extreme wave heights are projected to rotate clockwise at the eastern end of the Aleutian Islands and counterclockwise offshore of Southern California. Local spatial patterns of the changing wave climate are similar under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, but stronger magnitudes of change are projected under RCP 8.5. Findings of this study are similar to previous work using CMIP3 GCMs that indicates decreasing mean and extreme wave conditions in the Eastern North Pacific, but differ from other studies with respect to magnitude and local patterns of change. This study contributes toward a larger ensemble of global and regional climate projections needed to better assess uncertainty of potential future wave climate change, and provides model boundary conditions for assessing the impacts of

1. Nowhere to invade: Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia projected to disappear under future climate scenarios.

Xu, Zhonglin; Feng, Zhaodong; Yang, Jianjun; Zheng, Jianghua; Zhang, Fang

2013-01-01

Future climate change has been predicted to affect the potential distribution of plant species. However, only few studies have addressed how invasive species may respond to future climate change despite the known effects of plant species invasion on nutrient cycles, ecosystem functions, and agricultural yields. In this study, we predicted the potential distributions of two invasive species, Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia, under current and future (2050) climatic conditions. Future climate scenarios considered in our study include A1B, A2, A2A, B1, and B2A. We found that these two species will lose their habitat under the A1B, A2, A2A, and B1 scenarios. Their distributions will be maintained under future climatic conditions related to B2A scenarios, but the total area will be less than 10% of that under the current climatic condition. We also investigated variations of the most influential climatic variables that are likely to cause habitat loss of the two species. Our results demonstrate that rising mean annual temperature, variations of the coldest quarter, and precipitation of the coldest quarter are the main factors contributing to habitat loss of R. crispus. For T. latifolia, the main factors are rising mean annual temperature, variations in temperature of the coldest quarter, mean annual precipitation, and precipitation of the coldest quarter. These results demonstrate that the warmer and wetter climatic conditions of the coldest season (or month) will be mainly responsible for habitat loss of R. crispus and T. latifolia in the future. We also discuss uncertainties related to our study (and similar studies) and suggest that particular attention should be directed toward the manner in which invasive species cope with rapid climate changes because evolutionary change can be rapid for species that invade new areas.

2. Nowhere to invade: Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia projected to disappear under future climate scenarios.

Zhonglin Xu

Full Text Available Future climate change has been predicted to affect the potential distribution of plant species. However, only few studies have addressed how invasive species may respond to future climate change despite the known effects of plant species invasion on nutrient cycles, ecosystem functions, and agricultural yields. In this study, we predicted the potential distributions of two invasive species, Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia, under current and future (2050 climatic conditions. Future climate scenarios considered in our study include A1B, A2, A2A, B1, and B2A. We found that these two species will lose their habitat under the A1B, A2, A2A, and B1 scenarios. Their distributions will be maintained under future climatic conditions related to B2A scenarios, but the total area will be less than 10% of that under the current climatic condition. We also investigated variations of the most influential climatic variables that are likely to cause habitat loss of the two species. Our results demonstrate that rising mean annual temperature, variations of the coldest quarter, and precipitation of the coldest quarter are the main factors contributing to habitat loss of R. crispus. For T. latifolia, the main factors are rising mean annual temperature, variations in temperature of the coldest quarter, mean annual precipitation, and precipitation of the coldest quarter. These results demonstrate that the warmer and wetter climatic conditions of the coldest season (or month will be mainly responsible for habitat loss of R. crispus and T. latifolia in the future. We also discuss uncertainties related to our study (and similar studies and suggest that particular attention should be directed toward the manner in which invasive species cope with rapid climate changes because evolutionary change can be rapid for species that invade new areas.

3. Using MBTI for the Success Assessment of Engineering Teams in Project-Based Learning

Rodríguez Montequín, V.; Mesa Fernández, J. M.; Balsera, J. Villanueva; García Nieto, A.

2013-01-01

Project-Based Learning (PBL) is a teaching and learning methodology that emphasizes student centered instruction by assigning projects. The students have to conduct significant projects and cope with realistic working conditions and scenarios. PBL is generally done by groups of students working together towards a common goal. Several factors play…

4. Using MBTI for the Success Assessment of Engineering Teams in Project-Based Learning

Rodríguez Montequín, V.; Mesa Fernández, J. M.; Balsera, J. Villanueva; García Nieto, A.

2013-01-01

Project-Based Learning (PBL) is a teaching and learning methodology that emphasizes student centered instruction by assigning projects. The students have to conduct significant projects and cope with realistic working conditions and scenarios. PBL is generally done by groups of students working together towards a common goal. Several factors play…

5. Projections for the Production of Bulk Volume Bio-Based Polymers in Europe and Environmental Implications

Patel, M.K.; Crank, M.

2007-01-01

In this paper we provide an overview of the most important emerging groups of bio-based polymers for bulk volume applications and we discuss market projections for these types of bio-based polymers in the EU, thereby distinguishing between three scenarios. Bio-based polymers are projected to reach a

6. Scenario based approach to structural damage detection and its value in a risk and reliability perspective

Hovgaard, Mads Knude; Hansen, Jannick Balleby; Brincker, Rune

2013-01-01

A scenario- and vibration based structural damage detection method is demonstrated though simulation. The method is Finite Element (FE) based. The value of the monitoring is calculated using structural reliability theory. A high cycle fatigue crack propagation model is assumed as the damage mecha...

7. 3D Simulation of Storm Surge Disaster Based on Scenario Analysis

王晓玲; 孙小沛; 张胜利; 孙蕊蕊; 李瑞金; 朱泽彪

2016-01-01

The occurrence of storm surge disaster is often accompanied with floodplain, overflow, dike breach and other complex phenomena, while current studies on storm surge flooding are more concentrated on the 1D/2D numerical simulation of single disaster scenario (floodplain, overflow or dike breach), ignoring the composite ef-fects of various phenomena. Therefore, considering the uncertainty in the disaster process of storm surge, scenario analysis was firstly proposed to identify the composite disaster scenario including multiple phenomena by analyzing key driving forces, building scenario matrix and deducing situation logic. Secondly, by combining the advantages of k-ωand k-εmodels in the wall treatment, a shear stress transmission k-ωmodel coupled with VOF was proposed to simulate the 3D flood routing for storm surge disaster. Thirdly, risk degree was introduced to make the risk analysis of storm surge disaster. Finally, based on the scenario analysis, four scenarios with different storm surge intensity (100-year and 200-year frequency) were identified in Tianjin Binhai New Area. Then, 3D numerical simulation and risk map were made for the case.

8. A multivariate copula-based framework for dealing with hazard scenarios and failure probabilities

Salvadori, G.; Durante, F.; De Michele, C.; Bernardi, M.; Petrella, L.

2016-05-01

This paper is of methodological nature, and deals with the foundations of Risk Assessment. Several international guidelines have recently recommended to select appropriate/relevant Hazard Scenarios in order to tame the consequences of (extreme) natural phenomena. In particular, the scenarios should be multivariate, i.e., they should take into account the fact that several variables, generally not independent, may be of interest. In this work, it is shown how a Hazard Scenario can be identified in terms of (i) a specific geometry and (ii) a suitable probability level. Several scenarios, as well as a Structural approach, are presented, and due comparisons are carried out. In addition, it is shown how the Hazard Scenario approach illustrated here is well suited to cope with the notion of Failure Probability, a tool traditionally used for design and risk assessment in engineering practice. All the results outlined throughout the work are based on the Copula Theory, which turns out to be a fundamental theoretical apparatus for doing multivariate risk assessment: formulas for the calculation of the probability of Hazard Scenarios in the general multidimensional case (d≥2) are derived, and worthy analytical relationships among the probabilities of occurrence of Hazard Scenarios are presented. In addition, the Extreme Value and Archimedean special cases are dealt with, relationships between dependence ordering and scenario levels are studied, and a counter-example concerning Tail Dependence is shown. Suitable indications for the practical application of the techniques outlined in the work are given, and two case studies illustrate the procedures discussed in the paper.

9. Future efficiency of run of the river hydropower schemes based on climate change scenarios: case study in UK catchments

Pasten Zapata, Ernesto; Moggridge, Helen; Jones, Julie; Widmann, Martin

2017-04-01

Run-of-the-River (ROR) hydropower schemes are expected to be importantly affected by climate change as they rely in the availability of river flow to generate energy. As temperature and precipitation are expected to vary in the future, the hydrological cycle will also undergo changes. Therefore, climate models based on complex physical atmospheric interactions have been developed to simulate future climate scenarios considering the atmosphere's greenhouse gas concentrations. These scenarios are classified according to the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) that are generated according to the concentration of greenhouse gases. This study evaluates possible scenarios for selected ROR hydropower schemes within the UK, considering three different RCPs: 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 W/m2 for 2100 relative to pre-industrial values. The study sites cover different climate, land cover, topographic and hydropower scheme characteristics representative of the UK's heterogeneity. Precipitation and temperature outputs from state-of-the-art Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the Euro-CORDEX project are used as input for a HEC-HMS hydrological model to simulate the future river flow available. Both uncorrected and bias-corrected RCM simulations are analyzed. The results of this project provide an insight of the possible effects of climate change towards the generation of power from the ROR hydropower schemes according to the different RCP scenarios and contrasts the results obtained from uncorrected and bias-corrected RCMs. This analysis can aid on the adaptation to climate change as well as the planning of future ROR schemes in the region.

10. Probabilistic Wind Power Ramp Forecasting Based on a Scenario Generation Method: Preprint

Wang, Qin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Florita, Anthony R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat K [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hodge, Brian S [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2017-08-31

Wind power ramps (WPRs) are particularly important in the management and dispatch of wind power, and they are currently drawing the attention of balancing authorities. With the aim to reduce the impact of WPRs for power system operations, this paper develops a probabilistic ramp forecasting method based on a large number of simulated scenarios. An ensemble machine learning technique is first adopted to forecast the basic wind power forecasting scenario and calculate the historical forecasting errors. A continuous Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is used to fit the probability distribution function (PDF) of forecasting errors. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) is analytically deduced. The inverse transform method based on Monte Carlo sampling and the CDF is used to generate a massive number of forecasting error scenarios. An optimized swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract all the WPRs from the complete set of wind power forecasting scenarios. The probabilistic forecasting results of ramp duration and start time are generated based on all scenarios. Numerical simulations on publicly available wind power data show that within a predefined tolerance level, the developed probabilistic wind power ramp forecasting method is able to predict WPRs with a high level of sharpness and accuracy.

11. Managing projects a team-based approach

Brown, Karen A

2010-01-01

Students today are likely to be assigned to project teams or to be project managers almost immediately in their first job. Managing Projects: A Team-Based Approach was written for a wide range of stakeholders, including project managers, project team members, support personnel, functional mangers who provide resources for projects, project customers (and customer representatives), project sponsors, project subcontractors, and anyone who plays a role in the project delivery process. The need for project management is on the rise as product life cycles compress, demand for IT systems increases, and business takes on an increasingly global character. This book adds to the project management knowledge base in a way that fills an unmet need—it shows how teams can apply many of the standard project management tools, as well as several tools that are relatively new to the field. Managing Projects: A Team-Based Approach offers the academic rigor found in most textbooks along with the practical attributes often foun...

12. Hybrid Modeling for Scenario-Based Evaluation of Failure Effects in Advanced Hardware-Software Designs

Malin, Jane T.; Fleming, Land; Throop, David

2001-01-01

This paper describes an incremental scenario-based simulation approach to evaluation of intelligent software for control and management of hardware systems. A hybrid continuous/discrete event simulation of the hardware dynamically interacts with the intelligent software in operations scenarios. Embedded anomalous conditions and failures in simulated hardware can lead to emergent software behavior and identification of missing or faulty software or hardware requirements. An approach is described for extending simulation-based automated incremental failure modes and effects analysis, to support concurrent evaluation of intelligent software and the hardware controlled by the software

13. Projected Crop Production under Regional Climate Change Using Scenario Data and Modeling: Sensitivity to Chosen Sowing Date and Cultivar

Sulin Tao

2016-02-01

Full Text Available A sensitivity analysis of the responses of crops to the chosen production adaptation options under regional climate change was conducted in this study. Projections of winter wheat production for different sowing dates and cultivars were estimated for a major economic and agricultural province of China from 2021 to 2080 using the World Food Study model (WOFOST under representative concentration pathways (RCPs scenarios. A modeling chain was established and a correction method was proposed to reduce the bias of the resulting model-simulated climate data. The results indicated that adjusting the sowing dates and cultivars could mitigate the influences of climate change on winter wheat production in Jinagsu. The yield gains were projected from the chosen sowing date and cultivar. The following actions are recommended to ensure high and stable yields under future climate changes: (i advance the latest sowing date in some areas of northern Jiangsu; and (ii use heat-tolerant or heat-tolerant and drought-resistant varieties in most areas of Jiangsu rather than the currently used cultivar. Fewer of the common negative effects of using a single climate model occurred when using the sensitivity analysis because our bias correction method was effective for scenario data and because the WOFOST performed well for Jiangsu after calibration.

14. Radiation dose evaluation based on exposure scenario during the operation of radioactive waste disposal facility

Yoon, Jeong Hyoun; Kim Chang Lak; Choi, Heui Joo; Park, Joo Wan [Korea Electric Power Corporation, Nuclear Environment Technology Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

1999-07-01

Radiation dose to worker in disposal facility was calculated by using point kernel MICROSHIELD V5.02 computer code based on exposure scenarios. An conceptual design model for disposal vaults in disposal facility was used for object of shielding calculation model. Selected radionuclides and their activities among radioactive wastes from nuclear power plants were assumed as radiation sources for the exposure calculation. Annual radiation doses to crane workers and to people working on disposal vaults were calculated according to exposure time and distance from the sources with conservative operation scenarios. The scenarios used for this study were based on assumption for representing disposal activities in a future Korean near surface disposal facility. Calculated exposure rates to worker during normal disposal work were very low comparing with annual allowable limit for radiation worker.

15. Scenario based outdoor simulation in pre-hospital trauma care using a simple mannequin model

Grier Gareth

2010-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Introduction We describe a system of scenario-based training using simple mannequins under realistic circumstances for the training of pre-hospital care providers. Methods A simple intubatable mannequin or student volunteers are used together with a training version of the equipment used on a routine basis by the pre-hospital care team (doctor + paramedic. Training is conducted outdoors at the base location all year round. The scenarios are led by scenario facilitators who are predominantly senior physicians. Their role is to brief the training team and guide the scenario, results of patient assessment and the simulated responses to interventions and treatment. Pilots, fire-fighters and medical students are utilised in scenarios to enhance realism by taking up roles as bystanders, additional ambulance staff and police. These scenario participants are briefed and introduced to the scene in a realistic manner. After completion of the scenario, the training team would usually be invited to prepare and deliver a hospital handover as they would in a real mission. A formal structured debrief then takes place. Results This training method technique has been used for the training of all London Helicopter Emergency Medical Service (London HEMS doctors and paramedics over the last 24 months. Informal participant feedback suggests that this is a very useful teaching method, both for improving motor skills, critical decision-making, scene management and team interaction. Although formal assessment of this technique has not yet taken place we describe how this type of training is conducted in a busy operational pre-hospital trauma service. Discussion The teaching and maintenance of pre-hospital care skills is essential to an effective pre-hospital trauma care system. Simple mannequin based scenario training is feasible on a day-to-day basis and has the advantages of low cost, rapid set up and turn around. The scope of scenarios is limited only by

16. Projections of suitable habitat for rare species under global warming scenarios

F. Thomas Ledig; Gerald E. Rehfeldt; Cuauhtemoc Saenz-Romero; Flores-Lopez Celestino

2010-01-01

Premise of the study: Modeling the contemporary and future climate niche for rare plants is a major hurdle in conservation, yet such projections are necessary to prevent extinctions that may result from climate change. Methods: We used recently developed spline climatic models and modifi ed Random Forests...

17. PROJECTING THE BIOLOGICAL CONDITION OF STREAMS UNDER ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS OF HUMAN LAND USE

We present empirical models for estimating the status of fish and aquatic invertebrate communities in all second to fourth-order streams (1:100,000 scale; total stream length = 6476 km) throughout the Willamette River Basin, Oregon. The models project fish and invertebrate status...

18. Orthogonality Measurement for Homogenous Projects-Bases

Ivan, Ion; Sandu, Andrei; Popa, Marius

2009-01-01

The homogenous projects-base concept is defined. Next, the necessary steps to create a homogenous projects-base are presented. A metric system is built, which then will be used for analyzing projects. The indicators which are meaningful for analyzing a homogenous projects-base are selected. The given hypothesis is experimentally verified. The…

19. Scenario-based risk analysis of winter snowstorms in the German lowlands

von Wulffen, Anja

2014-05-01

The northern German lowlands are not especially known for a high frequency of snowfall events. Nevertheless under certain synoptic conditions Lake-Effect-like phenomena caused by the proximity especially of the Baltic Sea can lead to significantly reinforced snowfall intensities that are often accompanied by rather high wind speeds. This makes for infrequent but potentially disastrous snowstorms in a region less accustomed to snow impacts. One possible consequence of an infrastructure failure cascade resulting from severe and longer-lasting snowstorms is a regional disruption of the food supply chain. In the context of "just-in-time"-logistics and the accompanying decrease of storage capabilities, this poses a significant threat to the population's food security. Within the project NeuENV ("New strategies to ensure sufficient food supply in case of crisis in Germany") a snowstorm in the German lowlands involving widespread disruptions of the transportation infrastructure as well as power failures is therefore used as one model for future food supply chain disruptions. In order to obtain a reliable evaluation of the supply chain and crisis management resilience, a detailed snowstorm scenario is being developed. For this purpose, a database of impact reports of past snowstorm events is assembled and analysed to obtain a comprehensive overview of potential infrastructure impairments and failures. Examples of events analysed in this context include the winter 1978/79 with its disastrous snow drifts that commonly attained heights of 3m to 5m leading to a transportation infrastructure collapse across a wide area, the wet snow event in November 2005 in the Münsterland region that caused power failures for up to 250.000 homes, and more recent snowstorms such as Daisy in January 2010. A catalogue of thresholds for relevant parameters indicating when significant failures can be expected is then compiled through a comparison of impact reports with the detailed meteorological

20. Statistical downscaling of the French Mediterranean climate: assessment for present and projection in an anthropogenic scenario

C. Lavaysse

2012-03-01

Full Text Available The Mediterranean basin is a particularly vulnerable region to climate change, featuring a sharply contrasted climate between the North and South and governed by a semi-enclosed sea with pronounced surrounding topography covering parts of the Europe, Africa and Asia regions. The physiographic specificities contribute to produce mesoscale atmospheric features that can evolve to high-impact weather systems such as heavy precipitation, wind storms, heat waves and droughts. The evolution of these meteorological extremes in the context of global warming is still an open question, partly because of the large uncertainty associated with existing estimates produced by global climate models (GCM with coarse horizontal resolution (~200 km. Downscaling climatic information at a local scale is, thus, needed to improve the climate extreme prediction and to provide relevant information for vulnerability and adaptation studies. In this study, we investigate wind, temperature and precipitation distributions for past recent climate and future scenarios at eight meteorological stations in the French Mediterranean region using one statistical downscaling model, referred as the "Cumulative Distribution Function transform" (CDF-t approach. A thorough analysis of the uncertainty associated with statistical downscaling and bi-linear interpolation of large-scale wind speed, temperature and rainfall from reanalyses (ERA-40 and three GCM historical simulations, has been conducted and quantified in terms of Kolmogorov-Smirnov scores. CDF-t produces a more accurate and reliable local wind speed, temperature and rainfall. Generally, wind speed, temperature and rainfall CDF obtained with CDF-t are significantly similar with the observed CDF, even though CDF-t performance may vary from one station to another due to the sensitivity of the driving large-scale fields or local impact. CDF-t has then been applied to climate simulations of the 21st century under B1 and A2 scenarios

1. Multimedia Scenario Based Learning Programme for Enhancing the English Language Efficiency among Primary School Students

Tupe, Navnath

2015-01-01

This research was undertaken with a view to assess the deficiencies in English language among Primary School Children and to develop Multimedia Scenario Based Learning Programme (MSBLP) for mastery of English language which required special attention and effective treatment. The experimental study with pre-test, post-test control group design was…

2. Time Pressure in Scenario-Based Online Construction Safety Quizzes and Its Effect on Students' Performance

2017-01-01

Online quizzes have been shown to be effective learning and assessment approaches. However, if scenario-based online construction safety quizzes do not include time pressure similar to real-world situations, they reflect situations too ideally. The purpose of this paper is to compare engineering students' performance when carrying out an online…

3. Participatory scenario planning in place-based social-ecological research

Rozas, Elisa Oteros; Martín-López, Berta; Daw, Tim M.

2015-01-01

Participatory scenario planning (PSP) is an increasingly popular tool in place-based environmental research for evaluating alternative futures of social-ecological systems. Although a range of guidelines on PSP methods are available in the scientific and grey literature, there is a need to reflect...

4. Adapting Scenario-Based Curriculum Materials to Community College Technical Courses

Yarnall, Louise; Toyama, Yukie; Gong, Bowyee; Ayers, Catherine; Ostrander, Jane

2007-01-01

Community college educators seek to infuse their workforce courses with more "real world" activities. This 3-year case study examined how 7 instructors and 78 students in California and Texas responded to the changes involved in implementing one type of reform program--the scenario-based curriculum (Schank, 1997). The study shows that…

5. Kalman filter for speech enhancement in cocktail party scenarios using a codebook-based approach

Kavalekalam, Mathew Shaji; Christensen, Mads Græsbøll; Gran, Fredrik;

2016-01-01

Enhancement of speech in non-stationary background noise is a challenging task, and conventional single channel speech enhancement algorithms have not been able to improve the speech intelligibility in such scenarios. The work proposed in this paper investigates a single channel Kalman filter based...

6. Formal analysis of executions of organizational scenarios based on process-oriented models

Popova, V.; Sharpanskykh, A.

2007-01-01

This paper presents various formal techniques for analysis of executions of organizational scenarios based on process-oriented models of organizations. Process-oriented models describe (prescribe) ordering and timing relations on organizational processes, modes of use of resources, allocations of

7. Project-Based Teaching: Helping Students Make Project Connections

Johnson, Heather Jo Pusich

Project-based curriculum materials are designed to support students in engaging with scientific content and practices in meaningful ways, with the goal of improving students' science learning. However, students need to understand the connections between what they are doing on a day-to-day basis with respect to the goals of the overall project for students to get the motivational and cognitive benefits of a project-based approach. In this dissertation, I looked at the challenges that four ninth grade science teachers faced as they helped students to make these connections using a project-based environmental science curriculum. The analysis revealed that in general when the curriculum materials made connections explicit, teachers were better able to articulate the relationship between the lesson and the project during enactment. However, whether the connections were explicit or implicit in the materials, enactments of the same lesson across teachers revealed that teachers leveraged different aspects of the project context in different ways depending on their knowledge, beliefs, and goals about project-based teaching. The quantitative analysis of student data indicated that when teacher enactments supported project goals explicitly, students made stronger connections between a lesson and the project goal. Therefore, a teacher's ability to make clear connections during classroom instruction is essential. Furthermore, when students made connections between each lesson and the larger project goals their attitudes toward the lesson were more positive and they performed better on the final assessment. These findings suggest that connections between individual lessons and the goals of the project are critical to the effectiveness of project-based learning. This study highlights that while some teachers were able to forge these connections successfully as a result of leveraging cognitive resources, teachers' beliefs, knowledge and goals about project-based teaching are

8. Hawaii Energy Strategy Project 2: Fossil Energy Review. Task IV. Scenario development and analysis

Yamaguchi, N.D.; Breazeale, K. [ed.

1993-12-01

The Hawaii Energy Strategy (HES) Program is a seven-project effort led by the State of Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism (DBEDT) to investigate a wide spectrum of Hawaii energy issues. The East-West Center`s Program on Resources: Energy and Minerals, has been assigned HES Project 2, Fossil Energy Review, which focuses on fossil energy use in Hawaii and the greater regional and global markets. HES Project 2 has four parts: Task I (World and Regional Fossil Energy Dynamics) covers petroleum, natural gas, and coal in global and regional contexts, along with a discussion of energy and the environment. Task II (Fossil Energy in Hawaii) focuses more closely on fossil energy use in Hawaii: current utilization and trends, the structure of imports, possible future sources of supply, fuel substitutability, and energy security. Task III`s emphasis is Greenfield Options; that is, fossil energy sources not yet used in Hawaii. This task is divided into two sections: first, an in-depth {open_quotes}Assessment of Coal Technology Options and Implications for the State of Hawaii,{close_quotes} along with a spreadsheet analysis model, which was subcontracted to the Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Division of Argonne National Laboratory; and second, a chapter on liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the Asia-Pacific market and the issues surrounding possible introduction of LNG into the Hawaii market.

9. Performance Assessment of a Solar-Assisted Desiccant-Based Air Handling Unit Considering Different Scenarios

Giovanni Angrisani

2016-09-01

Full Text Available In this paper, three alternative layouts (scenarios of an innovative solar-assisted hybrid desiccant-based air handling unit (AHU are investigated through dynamic simulations. Performance is evaluated with respect to a reference system and compared to those of the innovative plant without modifications. For each scenario, different collector types, surfaces and tilt angles are considered. The effect of the solar thermal energy surplus exploitation for other low-temperature uses is also investigated. The first alternative scenario consists of the recovery of the heat rejected by the condenser of the chiller to pre-heat the regeneration air. The second scenario considers the pre-heating of regeneration air with the warmer regeneration air exiting the desiccant wheel (DW. The last scenario provides pre-cooling of the process air before entering the DW. Results reveal that the plants with evacuated solar collectors (SC can ensure primary energy savings (15%–24% and avoid equivalent CO2 emissions (14%–22%, about 10 percentage points more than those with flat-plate collectors, when the solar thermal energy is used only for air conditioning and the collectors have the best tilt angle. If all of the solar thermal energy is considered, the best results with evacuated tube collectors are approximately 73% in terms of primary energy saving, 71% in terms of avoided equivalent CO2 emissions and a payback period of six years.

10. A Two-Account Life Insurance Model for Scenario-Based Valuation Including Event Risk

Jensen, Ninna Reitzel; Schomacker, Kristian Juul

2015-01-01

Using a two-account model with event risk, we model life insurance contracts taking into account both guaranteed and non-guaranteed payments in participating life insurance as well as in unit-linked insurance. Here, event risk is used as a generic term for life insurance events, such as death......, disability, etc. In our treatment of participating life insurance, we have special focus on the bonus schemes “consolidation” and “additional benefits”, and one goal is to formalize how these work and interact. Another goal is to describe similarities and differences between participating life insurance...... model by conducting scenario analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation, but the model applies to scenarios in general and to worst-case and best-estimate scenarios in particular. In addition to easy computations, our model offers a common framework for the valuation of life insurance payments across...

11. Supply Chain Vulnerability Analysis Using Scenario-Based Input-Output Modeling: Application to Port Operations.

Thekdi, Shital A; Santos, Joost R

2016-05-01

Disruptive events such as natural disasters, loss or reduction of resources, work stoppages, and emergent conditions have potential to propagate economic losses across trade networks. In particular, disruptions to the operation of container port activity can be detrimental for international trade and commerce. Risk assessment should anticipate the impact of port operation disruptions with consideration of how priorities change due to uncertain scenarios and guide investments that are effective and feasible for implementation. Priorities for protective measures and continuity of operations planning must consider the economic impact of such disruptions across a variety of scenarios. This article introduces new performance metrics to characterize resiliency in interdependency modeling and also integrates scenario-based methods to measure economic sensitivity to sudden-onset disruptions. The methods will be demonstrated on a U.S. port responsible for handling \$36.1 billion of cargo annually. The methods will be useful to port management, private industry supply chain planning, and transportation infrastructure management.

12. A structured process to develop scenarios for use in evaluation of an evidence-based approach in clinical decision making

Manns PJ

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Patricia J Manns, Johanna DarrahDepartment of Physical Therapy, Faculty of Rehabilitation Medicine, University of Alberta, Edmonton, CanadaBackground and purpose: Scenarios are used as the basis from which to evaluate the use of the components of evidence-based practice in decision making, yet there are few examples of a standardized process of scenario writing. The aim of this paper is to describe a step-by-step scenario writing method used in the context of the authors’ curriculum research study.Methods: Scenario writing teams included one physical therapy clinician and one academic staff member. There were four steps in the scenario development process: (1 identify prevalent condition and brainstorm interventions; (2 literature search; (3 develop scenario framework; and (4 write scenario.Results: Scenarios focused only on interventions, not diagnostic or prognostic problems. The process led to two types of scenarios – ones that provided an intervention with strong research evidence and others where the intervention had weak evidence to support its use. The end product of the process was a scenario that incorporates aspects of evidence-based decision making and can be used as the basis for evaluation.Conclusion: The use of scenarios has been very helpful to capture therapists’ reasoning processes. The scenario development process was applied in an education context as part of a final evaluation of graduating clinical physical therapy students.Keywords: physical therapists, clinical decision making, evaluation, curriculum

13. Probabilistic scenario-based water resource planning and management:A case study in the Yellow River Basin, China

Dong, C.; Schoups, G.; van de Giesen, N.

2012-04-01

Water resource planning and management is subject to large uncertainties with respect to the impact of climate change and socio-economic development on water systems. In order to deal with these uncertainties, probabilistic climate and socio-economic scenarios were developed based on the Principle of Maximum Entropy, as defined within information theory, and as inputs to hydrological models to construct probabilistic water scenarios using Monte Carlo simulation. Probabilistic scenarios provide more explicit information than equally-likely scenarios for decision-making in water resource management. A case was developed for the Yellow River Basin, China, where future water availability and water demand are affected by both climate change and socio-economic development. Climate scenarios of future precipitation and temperature were developed based on the results of multiple Global climate models; and socio-economic scenarios were downscaled from existing large-scale scenarios. Probability distributions were assigned to these scenarios to explicitly represent a full set of future possibilities. Probabilistic climate scenarios were used as input to a rainfall-runoff model to simulate future river discharge and socio-economic scenarios for calculating water demand. A full set of possible future water supply-demand scenarios and their associated probability distributions were generated. This set can feed the further analysis of the future water balance, which can be used as a basis to plan and manage water resources in the Yellow River Basin. Key words: Probabilistic scenarios, climate change, socio-economic development, water management

14. Biodiversity Scenarios: Projections of 21st century change in biodiversity and associated ecosystem services

Scholes, B

2010-01-01

Full Text Available . Many of these biodiversity trans- formations will involve large and sometimes highly visible modi�cations of ecosystems such as widespread conversion of tropical forest to pastures and croplands, climate-induced inva- sion of tundra by boreal..., such as the poleward migration of boreal forest due to climate change, but other projections such as massive extinctions due to mid-century climate change have weaker support from past and present trends at least for certain taxa (e.g., some plants and insects...

15. Future Flood Inundation and Damages from Storm Surge in the Coast of Virginia and Maryland with Projected Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Scenarios

Rezaie, A. M.; Ferreira, C.; Walls, M. A.

2016-12-01

The recurrent flood risks on coastal areas in the United States (US) due to hurricane wind and storm surge are likely to rise with warmer climate, frequent storms, and increasing coastal population. Recent studies suggested that the global financial losses from hurricanes will be doubled by 2100 due to combined impact of climate change, sea level rise (SLR) and intensified hurricanes. While the predicted average SLR for the Mid-Atlantic region of the US is 2.2 meter, some coastal areas in Virginia (VA) and Maryland (MD) are expected to experience a 0.7 to 1.6m and 0.6 to 1.7m SLR respectively. Nearly 80 percent of the total \$5.3 billion property damage by Hurricane Isabel in 2003 was within VA and MD. In order to provide a quantitative assessment of the future flooding and associated damages for projected climate change and SLR scenarios, this study integrated state-of-the-art coastal numerical model ADCIRC with a careful economic valuation exercise of flood damages. The study area covers the entire coastal zone of VA and MD focusing on regions that are in the vicinity of the Chesapeake Bay and the Atlantic Ocean with high susceptibility to storm surge and flooding. Multiple climate change land cover scenarios generated by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) under a series of the IPCC's Emissions Scenarios are incorporated in the modeling approach to integrate climate change whereas local SLR projections are included to provide the regional aspects of future risks. Preliminary results for hurricane Isabel (2003) shows that a 2.3m rise in sea level can cause storm surges rising up to 3-4m in the coastal areas. While a 0.5m SLR makes the range 1-2.5m in the affected areas. It is also seen that higher increase in the sea level not only causes higher range of inundation but a greater extent of flood as well. The projected inland flooding extents are highest for the SRES A2 Scenario. Alongside an estimate of future loss and damage will be prepared to assist in

16. Coping with commitment: projected thermal stress on coral reefs under different future scenarios.

Simon D Donner

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Periods of anomalously warm ocean temperatures can lead to mass coral bleaching. Past studies have concluded that anthropogenic climate change may rapidly increase the frequency of these thermal stress events, leading to declines in coral cover, shifts in the composition of corals and other reef-dwelling organisms, and stress on the human populations who depend on coral reef ecosystems for food, income and shoreline protection. The ability of greenhouse gas mitigation to alter the near-term forecast for coral reefs is limited by the time lag between greenhouse gas emissions and the physical climate response. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: This study uses observed sea surface temperatures and the results of global climate model forced with five different future emissions scenarios to evaluate the "committed warming" for coral reefs worldwide. The results show that the physical warming commitment from current accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere could cause over half of the world's coral reefs to experience harmfully frequent (p> or =0.2 year(-1 thermal stress by 2080. An additional "societal" warming commitment, caused by the time required to shift from a business-as-usual emissions trajectory to a 550 ppm CO(2 stabilization trajectory, may cause over 80% of the world's coral reefs to experience harmfully frequent events by 2030. Thermal adaptation of 1.5 degrees C would delay the thermal stress forecast by 50-80 years. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The results suggest that adaptation -- via biological mechanisms, coral community shifts and/or management interventions -- could provide time to change the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions and possibly avoid the recurrence of harmfully frequent events at the majority (97% of the world's coral reefs this century. Without any thermal adaptation, atmospheric CO(2 concentrations may need to be stabilized below current levels to avoid the degradation of coral reef ecosystems

17. Regional projections of glacier volume and runoff in response to twenty-first century climate scenarios (Invited)

Radic, V.; Bliss, A. K.; Hock, R.

2013-12-01

Changes in mass contained by mountain glaciers and ice caps can modify the Earth's hydrological cycle on multiple scales. On a global scale, the mass loss from glaciers contributes to sea level rise. On regional and local scales, glacier melt-water is an important contributor to and modulator of river flow. In this study we use an elevation-dependent glacier mass balance model to project annual volume changes and monthly runoff from all mountain glaciers and ice caps in the world (excluding those in the Antarctic periphery) for the 21st century forced by temperature and precipitation scenarios from 14 global climate models. The largest contributors to projected total volume loss are the glaciers in the Canadian and Russian Arctic, Alaska and glaciers peripheral to Greenland ice sheet. Although small contributors to global volume loss, glaciers in Central Europe, low-latitude South America, Caucasus, North Asia, and Western Canada and US are projected to lose more than 75% of their volume by 2100. The magnitude and sign of trends in annual runoff totals differ considerably among regions depending on the balance between enhanced melt and the reduction of the glacier reservoir by glacier retreat and shrinkage. Most regions show strong declines in glacier runoff indicating that the effect of glacier shrinkage is more dominant than increased melting rates. Some high-latitude regions (Arctic Canada North, Russian Arctic and Greenland) exhibit increases in runoff totals. Iceland and Svalbard show an increase in runoff followed by a multi-decadal decrease in annual runoff.

18. Scenario-based assessment of buildings damage and population exposure due to tsunamis for the town of Alexandria, Egypt

G. Pagnoni

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Alexandria is the second biggest city in Egypt as regards population, is a key economic area in northern Africa and has a very important tourist activity. Historical catalogues indicate that it was severely affected by a number of tsunami events. In this work we assess the tsunami hazard by running numerical simulations of tsunami impact in Alexandria through the Worst-case Credible Tsunami Scenario Analysis (WCTSA. We identify three main seismic sources: the Western Hellenic Arc (WHA – reference event AD 365, Mw = 8.5, the Eastern Hellenic Arc (EHA – reference event 1303, Mw = 8.0 and the Cyprus Arc (CA – hypothetical scenario earthquake with Mw = 8.0, inferred from the tectonic setting and from historical tsunami catalogues. All numerical simulations are carried out by means of the code UBO-TSUFD, developed and maintained by the Tsunami Research Team of the University of Bologna. Relevant tsunami metrics are computed for each scenario and then used to build aggregated fields such as the maximum flood depth and the maximum inundation area. We find that the case that produces the most relevant flooding in Alexandria is the EHA scenario, with wave heights up to 4 m. The aggregate fields are used for a building vulnerability assessment according to a methodology developed in the frame of the EU-FP6 project SCHEMA and further refined in this study, based on the adoption of a suitable building damage matrix and on water inundation depth. It is found that in the districts of El Dekhila and Al Amriyah, to the south-west of the port of Dekhila over 12 000 buildings could be affected and hundreds of them could incur in consequences ranging from important damage to total collapse. It is also found that in the same districts tsunami inundation covers an area of about 15 km2 resulting in more than 150 000 residents being exposed.

19. Scenario-based stakeholder engagement: incorporating stakeholders preferences into coastal planning for climate change.

Tompkins, Emma L; Few, Roger; Brown, Katrina

2008-09-01

Climate change poses many challenges for ecosystem and resource management. In particular, coastal planners are struggling to find ways to prepare for the potential impacts of future climate change while dealing with immediate pressures. Decisions on how to respond to future risks are complicated by the long time horizons and the uncertainty associated with the distribution of impacts. Existing coastal zone management approaches in the UK either do not adequately incorporate changing stakeholder preferences, or effectively ensure that stakeholders are aware of the trade-offs inherent in any coastal management decision. Using a novel method, scenario-based stakeholder engagement, which brings together stakeholder analysis, climate change management scenarios and deliberative techniques, the necessary trade-offs associated with long term coastal planning are explored. The method is applied to two case studies of coastal planning in Christchurch Bay on the south coast of England and the Orkney Islands off the north coast of Scotland. A range of conflicting preferences exist on the ideal governance structure to manage the coast under different climate change scenarios. In addition, the results show that public understanding of the trade-offs that have to be made is critical in gaining some degree of public support for long term coastal decision-making. We conclude that scenario-based stakeholder engagement is a useful tool to facilitate coastal management planning that takes into account the complexities and challenges of climate change, and could be used in conjunction with existing approaches such as the Shoreline Management Planning process.

20. Projective mapping based on choice or preference: An affective approach to projective mapping.

Varela, Paula; Berget, Ingunn; Hersleth, Margrethe; Carlehög, Mats; Asioli, Daniele; Næs, Tormod

2017-10-01

This work explores a new affective approach to projective mapping, based on consumers' choices or preferences. Two sessions, one week apart, were performed with the same consumers, using whole bread as a case study. Overall liking ratings (OL) were gathered in blind conditions and samples were also profiled by a trained panel using generic descriptive analysis. Three projective mapping tests were performed in different scenarios. Consumers' categorization and product descriptions were explored when consumers based their positioning on the products' similarities and differences (analytical approach, "classic napping") both in blind and informed conditions, and when consumers were focusing on their preference or choice (affective approach). The affective approach to projective mapping successfully revealed consumers' drivers of liking and choice from a holistic perspective, where consumers summarized their main drivers for categorizing products as they would do when choosing in real life situations, based on their preferences. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Scenarios which may lead to the rise of an asteroid-based technical civilisation

Kecskes, Csaba

2002-05-01

In a previous paper, the author described a hypothetical development path of technical civilisations which has the following stages: planet dwellers, asteroid dwellers, interstellar travellers, interstellar space dwellers. In this paper, several scenarios are described which may cause the rise of an asteroid-based technical civilisation. Before such a transition may take place, certain space technologies must be developed fully (now these exist only in very preliminary forms): closed-cycle biological life support systems, space manufacturing systems, electrical propulsion systems. After mastering these technologies, certain events may provide the necessary financial means and social impetus for the foundation of the first asteroid-based colonies. In the first scenario, a rich minority group becomes persecuted and they decide to leave the Earth. In the second scenario, a "cold war"-like situation exists and the leaders of the superpowers order the creation of asteroid-based colonies to show off their empires' technological (and financial) grandiosity. In the third scenario, the basic situation is similar to the second one, but in this case the asteroids are not just occupied by the colonists. With several decades of hard work, an asteroid can be turned into a kinetic energy weapon which can provide the same (or greater) threat as the nuclear arsenal of a present superpower. In the fourth scenario, some military asteroids are moved to Earth-centred orbits and utilised as "solar power satellites" (SPS). This would be a quite economical solution because a "military asteroid" already contains most of the important components of an SPS (large solar collector arrays, power distribution devices, orbit modifying rocket engine), one should add only a large microwave transmitter.

2. Scenarios which may lead to the rise of an asteroid-based technical civilisation.

Kecskes, Csaba

2002-05-01

In a previous paper, the author described a hypothetical development path of technical civilisations which has the following stages: planet dwellers, asteroid dwellers, interstellar travellers, interstellar space dwellers. In this paper, several scenarios are described which may cause the rise of an asteroid-based technical civilisation. Before such a transition may take place, certain space technologies must be developed fully (now these exist only in very preliminary forms): closed-cycle biological life support systems, space manufacturing systems, electrical propulsion systems. After mastering these technologies, certain events may provide the necessary financial means and social impetus for the foundation of the first asteroid-based colonies. In the first scenario, a rich minority group becomes persecuted and they decide to leave the Earth. In the second scenario, a "cold war"-like situation exists and the leaders of the superpowers order the creation of asteroid-based colonies to show off their empires' technological (and financial) grandiosity. In the third scenario, the basic situation is similar to the second one, but in this case the asteroids are not just occupied by the colonists. With several decades of hard work, an asteroid can be turned into a kinetic energy weapon which can provide the same (or greater) threat as the nuclear arsenal of a present superpower. In the fourth scenario, some military asteroids are moved to Earth-centred orbits and utilised as "solar power satellites" (SPS). This would be a quite economical solution because a "military asteroid" already contains most of the important components of an SPS (large solar collector arrays, power distribution devices, orbit modifying rocket engine), one should add only a large microwave transmitter.

3. Climate Change Projections for the 21st Century by the NCC/IAP T63 Model with SRES Scenarios

XU Ying; ZHAO Zongci; LUO Yong; GAO Xuejie

2005-01-01

The projections of climate change in the globe and East Asia by the NCC/IAP T63 model with the SRES A2 and A1B scenarios have been investigated in this paper. The results pointed out a global warming of 3.6℃/100 yr and 2.5℃/100 yr for A2 and A1B during the 21st century, respectively. The warming in high and middle latitudes will be more obvious than that in low latitudes, especially in the winter hemisphere.The warming of 5.1℃/100 yr for A2 and 3.6℃/100 yr for A1B over East Asia in the 21st century will be much higher than that in the globe. The global mean precipitation will increase by about 4.3%/100 yr for A2 and 3.4%/100 yr for A1B in the 21st century, respectively. The precipitation will increase in most parts of the low and high latitudes and decrease in some regions of the subtropical latitudes. The linear trends of the annual mean precipitation anomalies over East Asia will be 9.8%/100 yr for A2 and 5.2%/100 yr for A1B, respectively. The drier situations will occur over the northwestern and southeastern parts of East Asia.The changes of the annual mean temperature and precipitation in the globe for the 21st century by the NCC/IAP T63 model with SRES A2 and A1B scenarios are in agreement with a number of the model projections.

4. AGRI PROJECT-BASED LEARNING

Urbano López de Meneses, Beatriz

2016-01-01

AGRI PROJECT-BASED LEARNING tiene por objeto acompañar al alumno en la realización del Trabajo Final de Grado (TFG) mediante la implementación de la metodología del aprendizaje basado en proyectos (PBL) desde las asignaturas. El desarrollo de la metodología ha incluido acciones en tres líneas de actuación; por un parte la inclusión de la metodología PBL en una asignatura para avanzar en el propio TFG del alumno, por otra la organización de seminarios y jornadas sobre instrumentos necesarios ...

5. Scenario-based verification of real-time systems using UPPAAL

Li, Shuhao; Belaguer, Sandie; David, Alexandre;

2010-01-01

as a separate monitored LSC chart. We make timed extensions to a kernel subset of the LSC language and define a trace-based semantics. By translating a monitored LSC chart to a behavior-equivalent observer TA and then non-intrusively composing this observer with the original TA modeled real-time system......, the problem of scenario-based verification reduces to a computation tree logic (CTL) real-time model checking problem. In case the real time system is modeled as a set of driving LSC charts, we translate these driving charts and the monitored chart into a behavior-equivalent network of TAs by using a “one......Abstract This paper proposes two approaches to tool-supported automatic verification of dense real-time systems against scenario-based requirements, where a system is modeled as a network of timed automata (TAs) or as a set of driving live sequence charts (LSCs), and a requirement is specified...

6. RV variable, hot post-AGB stars from the MUCHFUSS project - Classification, atmospheric parameters, formation scenarios

Reindl, N; Kupfer, T; Bloemen, S; Schaffenroth, V; Heber, U; Barlow, B N; Østensen, R H

2016-01-01

In the course of the MUCHFUSS project we have recently discovered four radial velocity (RV) variable, hot (Teff \$\\approx\$ 80,000 - 110,000 K) post-asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars. Among them, we found the first known RV variable O(He) star, the only second known RV variable PG 1159 close binary candidate, as well as the first two naked (i.e., without planetary nebula (PN)) H-rich post-AGB stars of spectral type O(H) that show significant RV variations. We present a non-LTE spectral analysis of these stars along with one further O(H)-type star whose RV variations were found to be not significant. We also report the discovery of an far-infrared excess in the case of the PG 1159 star. None of the stars in our sample displays nebular emission lines, which can be explained well in terms of a very late thermal pulse evolution in the case of the PG 1159 star. The "missing" PNe around the O(H)-type stars seem strange, since we find that several central stars of PNe have much longer post-AGB times. Besides the non...

7. Problem-based scenarios with laptops: an effective combination for cross-curricular learning in mathematics, science and language

Viktor Freiman

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Many educational systems consider using one-to-one access to the laptop as a way to improve teaching and learning. A two-year action research project on the use of laptop computers by New Brunswick (Canada grade 7 and 8 Francophone students aimed to better understand the impact of laptops on learning. Two problem-based learning (PBL interdisciplinary scenarios (math, science, language arts were implemented in eight experimental classes to measure and document students’ actual learning process, particularly in terms of their ability to scientifically investigate authentic problems, to reason mathematically, and to communicate. On-site observations, video-recording, journals, samples of students’ work, and interviews were used to collect qualitative data. Based on our findings, we argue that laptops in and of themselves may not automatically lead to better results on standardized tests, but rather create opportunities to enrich learning with more open-ended, constructive, collaborative, reflective, and cognitively complex learning tasks.

8. Current and projected water demand and water availability estimates under climate change scenarios in the Weyib River basin in Bale mountainous area of Southeastern Ethiopia

Serur, Abdulkerim Bedewi; Sarma, Arup Kumar

2017-07-01

This study intended to estimate the spatial and temporal variation of current and projected water demand and water availability under climate change scenarios in Weyib River basin, Bale mountainous area of Southeastern Ethiopia. Future downscaled climate variables from three Earth System Models under the three RCP emission scenarios were inputted into ArcSWAT hydrological model to simulate different components of water resources of a basin whereas current and projected human and livestock population of the basin is considered to estimate the total annual water demand for various purposes. Results revealed that the current total annual water demand of the basin is found to be about 289 Mm3, and this has to increase by 83.47% after 15 years, 200.67% after 45 years, and 328.78% after 75 years by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, from base period water demand mainly due to very rapid increasing population (40.81, 130.80, and 229.12% by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively) and climatic variability. The future average annual total water availability in the basin is observed to be increased by ranging from 15.04 to 21.61, 20.08 to 23.34, and 16.21 to 39.53% by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s time slice, respectively, from base period available water resources (2333.39 Mm3). The current water availability per capita per year of the basin is about 3112.23 m3 and tends to decline ranging from 11.78 to 17.49, 46.02 to 47.45, and 57.18 to 64.34% by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, from base period per capita per year water availability. This indicated that there might be possibility to fall the basin under water stress condition in the long term.

9. Probabilistic evaluation of scenarios in long-term safety analyses. Results of the project ISIBEL; Probabilistische Bewertung von Szenarien in Langzeitsicherheitsanalysen. Ergebnisse des Vorhabens ISIBEL

Buhmann, Dieter; Becker, Dirk-Alexander; Laggiard, Eduardo; Ruebel, Andre; Spiessl, Sabine; Wolf, Jens

2016-07-15

In the frame of the project ISIBEL deterministic analyses on the radiological consequences of several possible developments of the final repository were performed (VSG: preliminary safety analysis of the site Gorleben). The report describes the probabilistic evaluation of the VSG scenarios using uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. It was shown that probabilistic analyses are important to evaluate the influence of uncertainties. The transfer of the selected scenarios in computational cases and the used modeling parameters are discussed.

10. Sensitivity of future continental United States water deficit projections to general circulation models, the evapotranspiration estimation method, and the greenhouse gas emission scenario

Chang, Seungwoo; Graham, Wendy D.; Hwang, Syewoon; Muñoz-Carpena, Rafael

2016-08-01

Projecting water deficit under various possible future climate scenarios depends on the choice of general circulation model (GCM), reference evapotranspiration (ET0) estimation method, and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) trajectory. The relative contribution of each of these factors must be evaluated in order to choose an appropriate ensemble of future scenarios for water resources planning. In this study variance-based global sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo filtering were used to evaluate the relative sensitivity of projected changes in precipitation (P), ET0, and water deficit (defined here as P-ET0) to choice of GCM, ET0 estimation method, and RCP trajectory over the continental United States (US) for two distinct future periods: 2030-2060 (future period 1) and 2070-2100 (future period 2). A total of 9 GCMs, 10 ET0 methods, and 3 RCP trajectories were used to quantify the range of future projections and estimate the relative sensitivity of future projections to each of these factors. In general, for all regions of the continental US, changes in future precipitation are most sensitive to the choice of GCM, while changes in future ET0 are most sensitive to the choice of ET0 estimation method. For changes in future water deficit, the choice of GCM is the most influential factor in the cool season (December-March), and the choice of ET0 estimation method is most important in the warm season (May-October) for all regions except the Southeast US, where GCMs and ET0 have approximately equal influence throughout most of the year. Although the choice of RCP trajectory is generally less important than the choice of GCM or ET0 method, the impact of RCP trajectory increases in future period 2 over future period 1 for all factors. Monte Carlo filtering results indicate that particular GCMs and ET0 methods drive the projection of wetter or drier future conditions much more than RCP trajectory; however, the set of GCMs and ET0 methods that produce wetter or

11. Projections of Virtual Water Trade Under Agricultural Policy Scenarios in China

Dalin, C.; Hanasaki, N.; Qiu, H.; Mauzerall, D. L.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.

2014-12-01

China's economic growth is expected to continue into the next decades, accompanied by a sustained urbanization and industrialization. The associated increase in demand for land, water resources and rich foods will deepen the challenge to sustainably feed the population and balance environmental and agricultural policies. In previous work, Inner Mongolia was identified as a target province for trade or agricultural policies aimed at water-use efficiency improvements, due to its large production relying on particularly significant irrigation water use. In addition, water scarcity issues may arises in the greater Beijing area, which represents the largest urban area of arid Northern China. Increasing residential and industrial water demand in this region may lead to fewer available water for irrigation. For these reasons, it is important to estimate the impacts of specific policies aiming at reducing excessive water use for crop production in Inner Mongolia, as well as exploring ways to mitigate pressure on water resources in dry urban areas. In this study, we use socio-economic projections to assess the future state of China's virtual water trade (VWT) network. We then quantify the effects of agricultural policies on the national VWT system and on the efficiency of food trade in terms of water resources. This study addresses the following questions: (1) How future socio-economic changes will affect China's food trade and associated water transfers? (2) To which extent localized reductions of irrigated area can decrease agricultural water use while maintaining national food security? (3) How would these policies affect China's domestic and international VWT network and induced water resources savings (losses)?

12. Representing Instructional Material for Scenario-Based Guided-Discovery Courseware

Greitzer, Frank L.; Merrill, M. DAVID.; Rice, Douglas M.; Curtis, Darren S.

2004-12-06

The focus of this paper is to discuss paradigms for learning that are based on sound principles of human learning and cognition, and to discuss technical challenges that must be overcome in achieving this research goal through instructional system design (ISD) approaches that are cost-effective as well as conformant with today's interactive multimedia instruction standards. Fundamental concepts are to: engage learners to solve real-world problems (progress from simple to complex); relate material to previous experience; demonstrate what is to be learned using interactive, problem-centered activities rather than passive exposure to material; require learners to use their new knowledge to solve problems that demonstrate their knowledge in a relevant applied setting; and guide the learner with feedback and coaching early, then gradually withdraw this support as learning progresses. Many of these principles have been put into practice by employing interactive learning objects as re-usable components of larger, more integrated exercises. A challenge is to make even more extensive use of interactive, scenario-based activities within a guided-discovery framework. Because the design and construction of interactive, scenario-based learning objects and more complex integrated exercises is labor-intensive, this paper explores the use of interactive learning objects and associated representation schema for instructional content to facilitate development of tools for creating scenario-based, guided-discovery courseware.

13. Adapting Project Management Practices to Research-Based Projects

Bahr, P.; Baker, T.; Corbin, B.; Keith, L.; Loerch, L.; Mullenax, C.; Myers, R.; Rhodes, B.; Skytland, N.

2007-01-01

From dealing with the inherent uncertainties in outcomes of scientific research to the lack of applicability of current NASA Procedural Requirements guidance documentation, research-based projects present challenges that require unique application of classical project management techniques. If additionally challenged by the creation of a new program transitioning from basic to applied research in a technical environment often unfamiliar with the cost and schedule constraints addressed by project management practices, such projects can find themselves struggling throughout their life cycles. Finally, supplying deliverables to a prime vehicle customer, also in the formative stage, adds further complexity to the development and management of research-based projects. The Biomedical Research and Countermeasures Projects Branch at NASA Johnson Space Center encompasses several diverse applied research-based or research-enabling projects within the newly-formed Human Research Program. This presentation will provide a brief overview of the organizational structure and environment in which these projects operate and how the projects coordinate to address and manage technical requirements. We will identify several of the challenges (cost, technical, schedule, and personnel) encountered by projects across the Branch, present case reports of actions taken and techniques implemented to deal with these challenges, and then close the session with an open forum discussion of remaining challenges and potential mitigations.

14. Improved seismic risk estimation for Bucharest, based on multiple hazard scenarios, analytical methods and new techniques

Toma-Danila, Dragos; Florinela Manea, Elena; Ortanza Cioflan, Carmen

2014-05-01

Bucharest, capital of Romania (with 1678000 inhabitants in 2011), is one of the most exposed big cities in Europe to seismic damage. The major earthquakes affecting the city have their origin in the Vrancea region. The Vrancea intermediate-depth source generates, statistically, 2-3 shocks with moment magnitude >7.0 per century. Although the focal distance is greater than 170 km, the historical records (from the 1838, 1894, 1908, 1940 and 1977 events) reveal severe effects in the Bucharest area, e.g. intensities IX (MSK) for the case of 1940 event. During the 1977 earthquake, 1420 people were killed and 33 large buildings collapsed. The nowadays building stock is vulnerable both due to construction (material, age) and soil conditions (high amplification, generated within the weak consolidated Quaternary deposits, their thickness is varying 250-500m throughout the city). A number of 373 old buildings, out of 2563, evaluated by experts are more likely to experience severe damage/collapse in the next major earthquake. The total number of residential buildings, in 2011, was 113900. In order to guide the mitigation measures, different studies tried to estimate the seismic risk of Bucharest, in terms of buildings, population or economic damage probability. Unfortunately, most of them were based on incomplete sets of data, whether regarding the hazard or the building stock in detail. However, during the DACEA Project, the National Institute for Earth Physics, together with the Technical University of Civil Engineering Bucharest and NORSAR Institute managed to compile a database for buildings in southern Romania (according to the 1999 census), with 48 associated capacity and fragility curves. Until now, the developed real-time estimation system was not implemented for Bucharest. This paper presents more than an adaptation of this system to Bucharest; first, we analyze the previous seismic risk studies, from a SWOT perspective. This reveals that most of the studies don't use

15. A Game-Based Approach to Support Social Presence and Awareness in Distributed Project-Based Learning

Marklund, Björn Berg; Backlund, Per; Dahlin, Carl-Johan; Engström, Henrik; Wilhelmsson, Ulf

2014-01-01

An important factor for success in project-based learning (PBL) is that the involved project groups establish an atmosphere of social interaction in their working environment. In PBL-scenarios situated in distributed environments, most of a group's work-processes are mediated through the use of production-focused tools that are unconcerned with…

16. Scenario analysis of energy-based low-carbon development in China.

Zhou, Yun; Hao, Fanghua; Meng, Wei; Fu, Jiafeng

2014-08-01

China's increasing energy consumption and coal-dominant energy structure have contributed not only to severe environmental pollution, but also to global climate change. This article begins with a brief review of China's primary energy use and associated environmental problems and health risks. To analyze the potential of China's transition to low-carbon development, three scenarios are constructed to simulate energy demand and CO₂ emission trends in China up to 2050 by using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model. Simulation results show that with the assumption of an average annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 6.45%, total primary energy demand is expected to increase by 63.4%, 48.8% and 12.2% under the Business as Usual (BaU), Carbon Reduction (CR) and Integrated Low Carbon Economy (ILCE) scenarios in 2050 from the 2009 levels. Total energy-related CO₂ emissions will increase from 6.7 billiontons in 2009 to 9.5, 11, 11.6 and 11.2 billiontons; 8.2, 9.2, 9.6 and 9 billiontons; 7.1, 7.4, 7.2 and 6.4 billiontons in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 under the BaU, CR and ILCE scenarios, respectively. Total CO₂ emission will drop by 19.6% and 42.9% under the CR and ILCE scenarios in 2050, compared with the BaU scenario. To realize a substantial cut in energy consumption and carbon emissions, China needs to make a long-term low-carbon development strategy targeting further improvement of energy efficiency, optimization of energy structure, deployment of clean coal technology and use of market-based economic instruments like energy/carbon taxation.

17. Evaluating a "Second Life" Problem-Based Learning (PBL) Demonstrator Project: What Can We Learn?

2014-01-01

This article reports the findings of a demonstrator project to evaluate how effectively Immersive Virtual Worlds (IVWs) could support problem-based learning. The project designed, created and evaluated eight scenarios within "Second Life" (SL) for undergraduate courses in health care management and paramedic training. Evaluation was…

18. Evaluating a "Second Life" Problem-Based Learning (PBL) Demonstrator Project: What Can We Learn?

2014-01-01

This article reports the findings of a demonstrator project to evaluate how effectively Immersive Virtual Worlds (IVWs) could support problem-based learning. The project designed, created and evaluated eight scenarios within "Second Life" (SL) for undergraduate courses in health care management and paramedic training. Evaluation was…

19. Measuring Engagement in Later Life Activities: Rasch-Based Scenario Scales for Work, Caregiving, Informal Helping, and Volunteering

Ludlow, Larry H.; Matz-Costa, Christina; Johnson, Clair; Brown, Melissa; Besen, Elyssa; James, Jacquelyn B.

2014-01-01

The development of Rasch-based "comparative engagement scenarios" based on Guttman's facet theory and sentence mapping procedures is described. The scenario scales measuring engagement in work, caregiving, informal helping, and volunteering illuminate the lived experiences of role involvement among older adults and offer multiple…

20. Developing Courses with Holorena, A Framework for Scenario- and Game Based E-Learning Environments

Laszlo Juracz

2010-10-01

Full Text Available However utilizing rich, interactive solutions can make learning more effective and attractive, scenarioandgame-based educational resources on the web are not widely used. Creating these applications is acomplex, expensive and challenging process. Development frameworks and authoring tools hardlysupport reusable components, teamwork and learning management system-independent coursewarearchitecture. In this article we initiate the concept of a low-level, thick-client solution addressing theseproblems. With some example applications we try to demonstrate, how a framework, based on thisconcept can be useful for developing scenario- and game-based e-learning environments.

1. Assessing the Formation of Experience-Based Gender Expectations in an Implicit Learning Scenario

Anton Öttl

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The present study investigates the formation of new word-referent associations in an implicit learning scenario, using a gender-coded artificial language with spoken words and visual referents. Previous research has shown that when participants are explicitly instructed about the gender-coding system underlying an artificial lexicon, they monitor the frequency of exposure to male vs. female referents within this lexicon, and subsequently use this probabilistic information to predict the gender of an upcoming referent. In an explicit learning scenario, the auditory and visual gender cues are necessarily highlighted prior to acqusition, and the effects previously observed may therefore depend on participants' overt awareness of these cues. To assess whether the formation of experience-based expectations is dependent on explicit awareness of the underlying coding system, we present data from an experiment in which gender-coding was acquired implicitly, thereby reducing the likelihood that visual and auditory gender cues are used strategically during acquisition. Results show that even if the gender coding system was not perfectly mastered (as reflected in the number of gender coding errors, participants develop frequency based expectations comparable to those previously observed in an explicit learning scenario. In line with previous findings, participants are quicker at recognizing a referent whose gender is consistent with an induced expectation than one whose gender is inconsistent with an induced expectation. At the same time however, eyetracking data suggest that these expectations may surface earlier in an implicit learning scenario. These findings suggest that experience-based expectations are robust against manner of acquisition, and contribute to understanding why similar expectations observed in the activation of stereotypes during the processing of natural language stimuli are difficult or impossible to suppress.

2. Community disruptions and business costs for distant tsunami evacuations using maximum versus scenario-based zones

Wood, Nathan J.; Wilson, Rick I.; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Peters, Jeff; MacMullan, Ed; Krebs, Tessa; Shoaf, Kimberley; Miller, Kevin

2017-01-01

Well-executed evacuations are key to minimizing loss of life from tsunamis, yet they also disrupt communities and business productivity in the process. Most coastal communities implement evacuations based on a previously delineated maximum-inundation zone that integrates zones from multiple tsunami sources. To support consistent evacuation planning that protects lives but attempts to minimize community disruptions, we explore the implications of scenario-based evacuation procedures and use the California (USA) coastline as our case study. We focus on the land in coastal communities that is in maximum-evacuation zones, but is not expected to be flooded by a tsunami generated by a Chilean earthquake scenario. Results suggest that a scenario-based evacuation could greatly reduce the number of residents and employees that would be advised to evacuate for 24–36 h (178,646 and 159,271 fewer individuals, respectively) and these reductions are concentrated primarily in three counties for this scenario. Private evacuation spending is estimated to be greater than public expenditures for operating shelters in the area of potential over-evacuations (\$13 million compared to \$1 million for a 1.5-day evacuation). Short-term disruption costs for businesses in the area of potential over-evacuation are approximately \$122 million for a 1.5-day evacuation, with one-third of this cost associated with manufacturing, suggesting that some disruption costs may be recouped over time with increased short-term production. There are many businesses and organizations in this area that contain individuals with limited mobility or access and functional needs that may have substantial evacuation challenges. This study demonstrates and discusses the difficulties of tsunami-evacuation decision-making for relatively small to moderate events faced by emergency managers, not only in California but in coastal communities throughout the world.

3. Projecting policy-relevant metrics to characterize changing ozone extremes over the US: Variations by region, season and scenario

Rieder, Harald E.; Fiore, Arlene M.; Correa, Gus; Clifton, Olivia; Horrowitz, Larry W.; Naik, Vaishali

2015-04-01

Nitrogen oxide (NOx) emission controls have led to improved air quality (particularly in the Eastern US) over the past two decades, but concerns have been raised that climate warming may offset some of these gains in the coming decades. Here we address these concerns by analyzing the effect of projected future changes of emissions and climate, in isolation and combination, on US surface ozone (O3) during the 21st century in an ensemble of simulations (3 members per scenario) performed with the GFDL chemistry-climate model CM3. We analyze two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Under both scenarios, NOx emissions decrease by ~80% over North America by 2100. In additional 3-member ensemble simulations, termed RCP4.5_WMGG and RCP8.5_WMGG, well-mixed greenhouse gases follow the respective RCP but O3 and aerosol precursor emissions are held at 2005 levels. These simulations enable us to isolate the role of well-mixed greenhouse gas induced climate change from that of emission reductions. Another set of simulations, following RCP8.5 but with methane (CH4) held fixed at 2005 levels, termed RCP8.5_2005CH4, allows us to quantify the background influence of CH4 on O3. For each season, we examine changes in the surface O3 distribution over the US during the 21st century, calculating policy relevant statistics: days above the current national ambient air quality standard (NAAQS) of 75 ppb and other proposed future levels, as well as the probabilistic 1-year return levels for maximum daily 8-hour average ozone (MDA8 O3), within each model grid cell. Specifically, we analyze: (i) regional and seasonal changes in the frequency and return level of high O3 pollution events during the 21st century, as well as (ii) differences among the RCPs by the middle and end of the 21st century. We find that the response of surface O3 to changes in emissions and climate varies strongly, seasonally and spatially, with certain regions more prone to a 'climate

4. Alligator Rivers Analogue project. Application of scenario development method in evaluation of the Koongarra Analogue. Final Report - Volume 16

Skagius, K. [Kemakta Consultants co., Stockholm (Sweden); Wingefors, S. [Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, Stockholm (Sweden)

1992-12-31

The study of natural analogues has been established as one of the most important methods for validation of concepts and models applied for the assessment of long-term performance of repositories for nuclear waste. The objectives of such studies range from detailed investigations of processes and features on a small scale to attempts of explaining the evolution of whole sites. For studies of specific processes it may well be as important to consider the larger scale settings as boundary conditions. This appreciation of context and an integrated view may be as important for evaluation of most natural analogues as for performance assessments. This is more evident the more the evaluation depends on a knowledge about the evolution of the natural analogue. The attempted formulation of scenarios of the Koongarra Analogue has been based on the external conditions and external features. A rapid weathering of the host rock, i.e. the chlorite schist, is assumed to have started around the onset of the Pleistocene Ice Age (ca 1.6 Ma BP). The eventual oxidation and mobilization of the uranium ore could then have occurred under unsaturated or saturated conditions. This leads to the following major scenarios: (1) Uranyl Phosphates formed under unsaturated conditions, with a periodical evolution of the dispersion fan in conjunction with alternating dry (glacial) and wet (interglacial) periods during the Pleistocene Ice Age; (2) Uranyl Phosphates formed under unsaturated conditions as a single event, taking place either early or late during the Pleistocene Ice Age; (3)Uranyl Phosphates formed under saturated conditions, in conjunction with periods of higher and lower flow due to the climatic cycling. Although the original objectives may not have been fully achieved, this work is believed to contribute to a better understanding of the Koongarra Analogue as well as to give a basis for further scenario work

5. Projected water consumption in future global agriculture: scenarios and related impacts.

Pfister, Stephan; Bayer, Peter; Koehler, Annette; Hellweg, Stefanie

2011-09-15

Global stress on water and land resources is increasing as a consequence of population growth and higher caloric food demand. Many terrestrial ecosystems have already massively been degraded for providing agricultural land, and water scarcity related to irrigation has damaged water dependent ecosystems. Coping with the food and biomass demand of an increased population, while minimizing the impacts of crop production, is therefore a massive upcoming challenge. In this context, we developed four strategies to deliver the biotic output for feeding mankind in 2050. Expansion on suitable and intensification of existing areas are compared to assess associated environmental impacts, including irrigation demand, water stress under climate change, and the productivity of the occupied land. Based on the agricultural production pattern and impacts of the strategies we identified the trade-offs between land and water use. Intensification in regions currently under deficit irrigation can increase agricultural output by up to 30%. However, intensified crop production causes enormous water stress in many locations and might not be a viable solution. Furthermore, intensification alone will not be able to meet future food demand: additionally, a reduction of waste by 50% along the food supply chain or expansion of agricultural land is required for satisfying current per-capita meat and bioenergy consumption. Suitable areas for such expansion are mainly located in Africa, followed by South America. The increased land stress is of smaller concern than the water stress modeled for the intensification case. Therefore, a combination of waste reduction with expansion on suitable pastures generally results as the best option, along with some intensification on selected areas. Our results suggested that minimizing environmental impacts requires fundamental changes in agricultural systems and international cooperation, by producing crops where it is most environmentally efficient and not

6. South African maize production scenarios for 2055 using a combined empirical and process-based model approach

Estes, L.; Bradley, B.; Oppenheimer, M.; Wilcove, D.; Beukes, H.; Schulze, R. E.; Tadross, M.

2011-12-01

In South Africa, a semi-arid country with a diverse agricultural sector, climate change is projected to negatively impact staple crop production. Our study examines future impacts to maize, South Africa's most widely grown staple crop. Working at finer spatial resolution than previous studies, we combine the process-based DSSAT4.5 and the empirical MAXENT models to study future maize suitability. Climate scenarios were based on 9 GCMs run under SRES A2 and B1 emissions scenarios down-scaled (using self-organizing maps) to 5838 locations. Soil properties were derived from textural and compositional data linked to 26422 landforms. DSSAT was run with typical dryland planting parameters and mean projected CO2 values. MAXENT was trained using aircraft-observed distributions and monthly climatologies data derived from downscaled daily records, with future rainfall increased by 10% to simulate CO2 related water-use efficiency gains. We assessed model accuracy based on correlations between model output and a satellite-derived yield proxy (integrated NDVI), and the overlap of modeled and observed maize field distributions. DSSAT yields were linearly correlated to mean integrated NDVI (R2 = 0.38), while MAXENT's relationship was logistic. Binary suitability maps based on thresholding model outputs were slightly more accurate for MAXENT (88%) than for DSSAT (87%) when compared to current maize field distribution. We created 18 suitability maps for each model (9 GCMs X 2 SRES) using projected changes relative to historical suitability thresholds. Future maps largely agreed in eastern South Africa, but disagreed strongly in the semi-arid west. Using a 95% confidence criterion (17 models agree), MAXENT showed a 241305 km2 suitability loss relative to its modeled historical suitability, while DSSAT showed a potential loss of only 112446 km2. Even the smaller potential loss highlighted by DSSAT is uncertain, given that DSSAT's mean (across all 18 climate scenarios) projected yield

7. Evaluating land-use change scenarios for the Puget Sound Basin, Washington, within the ecosystem recovery target model-based framework

Villarreal, Miguel; Labiosa, Bill; Aiello, Danielle

2017-05-23

The Puget Sound Basin, Washington, has experienced rapid urban growth in recent decades, with varying impacts to local ecosystems and natural resources. To plan for future growth, land managers often use scenarios to assess how the pattern and volume of growth may affect natural resources. Using three different land-management scenarios for the years 2000–2060, we assessed various spatial patterns of urban growth relative to maps depicting a model-based characterization of the ecological integrity and recent development pressure of individual land parcels. The three scenarios depict future trajectories of land-use change under alternative management strategies—status quo, managed growth, and unconstrained growth. The resulting analysis offers a preliminary assessment of how future growth patterns in the Puget Sound Basin may impact land targeted for conservation and how short-term metrics of land-development pressure compare to longer term growth projections.

8. Trajectory Generation Model-Based IMM Tracking for Safe Driving in Intersection Scenario

Tingting Zhou

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Tracking the actions of vehicles at crossroads and planning safe trajectories will be an effective method to reduce the rate of traffic accident at intersections. It is to resolve the problem of the abrupt change because of the existence of drivers' voluntary choices. In this paper, we make approach of an improved IMM tracking method based on trajectory generation, abstracted by trajectory generation algorithm, to improve this situation. Because of the similarity between human-driving trajectory and programming trajectory which is generated by trajectory-generated algorithm, the improved IMM method performs well in tracking moving vehicles with some sudden changes of its movement. A set of data is collected for experiments when an object vehicle takes a sudden left turn in intersection scenario. To compare the experiment results between IMM method with trajectory generation model and the one without, tracking error of the former decreases by 75% in particular scenario.

9. Decomposing uncertainties in the future terrestrial carbon budget associated with emission scenario, climate projection, and ecosystem simulation using the ISI-MIP result

K. Nishina

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Changes to global net primary production (NPP, vegetation biomass carbon (VegC, and soil organic carbon (SOC estimated by six global vegetation models (GVM obtained from an Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project study were examined. Simulation results were obtained using five global climate models (GCM forced with four representative concentration pathway (RCP scenarios. To clarify which component (emission scenarios, climate projections, or global vegetation models contributes the most to uncertainties in projected global terrestrial C cycling by 2100, analysis of variance (ANOVA and wavelet clustering were applied to 70 projected simulation sets. In the end of simulation period, the changes from the year of 2000 in all three variables considerably varied from net negative to positive values. ANOVA revealed that the main sources of uncertainty are different among variables and depend on the projection period. We determined that in the global VegC, and SOC projections, GVMs dominate uncertainties (60 and 90%, respectively rather than climate driving scenarios, i.e., RCPs and GCMs. These results suggested that we don't have still enough resolution among each RCP scenario to evaluate climate change impacts on ecosystem conditions in global terrestrial C cycling. In addition, we found that the contributions of each uncertainty source were spatio-temporally heterogeneous and differed among the GVM variables. The dominant uncertainty source for changes in NPP and VegC varies along the climatic gradient. The contribution of GVM to the uncertainty decreases as the climate division gets cooler (from ca. 80% in the equatorial division to 40% in the snow climatic division. To evaluate the effects of climate change on ecosystems with practical resolution in RCP scenarios, GVMs require further improvement to reduce the uncertainties in global C cycling as much as, if not more than, GCMs. Our study suggests that the improvement of GVMs is a

10. Accelerated Evaluation of Automated Vehicles Safety in Lane-Change Scenarios Based on Importance Sampling Techniques.

Zhao, Ding; Lam, Henry; Peng, Huei; Bao, Shan; LeBlanc, David J; Nobukawa, Kazutoshi; Pan, Christopher S

2016-08-05

Automated vehicles (AVs) must be thoroughly evaluated before their release and deployment. A widely used evaluation approach is the Naturalistic-Field Operational Test (N-FOT), which tests prototype vehicles directly on the public roads. Due to the low exposure to safety-critical scenarios, N-FOTs are time consuming and expensive to conduct. In this paper, we propose an accelerated evaluation approach for AVs. The results can be used to generate motions of the other primary vehicles to accelerate the verification of AVs in simulations and controlled experiments. Frontal collision due to unsafe cut-ins is the target crash type of this paper. Human-controlled vehicles making unsafe lane changes are modeled as the primary disturbance to AVs based on data collected by the University of Michigan Safety Pilot Model Deployment Program. The cut-in scenarios are generated based on skewed statistics of collected human driver behaviors, which generate risky testing scenarios while preserving the statistical information so that the safety benefits of AVs in nonaccelerated cases can be accurately estimated. The cross-entropy method is used to recursively search for the optimal skewing parameters. The frequencies of the occurrences of conflicts, crashes, and injuries are estimated for a modeled AV, and the achieved accelerated rate is around 2000 to 20 000. In other words, in the accelerated simulations, driving for 1000 miles will expose the AV with challenging scenarios that will take about 2 to 20 million miles of real-world driving to encounter. This technique thus has the potential to greatly reduce the development and validation time for AVs.

11. A scenario-based MCDA framework for wastewater infrastructure planning under uncertainty.

Zheng, Jun; Egger, Christoph; Lienert, Judit

2016-12-01

Wastewater infrastructure management is increasingly important because of urbanization, environmental pollutants, aging infrastructures, and climate change. We propose a scenario-based multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework to compare different infrastructure alternatives in terms of their sustainability. These range from the current centralized system to semi- and fully decentralized options. Various sources of uncertainty are considered, including external socio-economic uncertainty captured by future scenarios, uncertainty in predicting outcomes of alternatives, and incomplete preferences of stakeholders. Stochastic Multi-criteria Acceptability Analysis (SMAA) with Monte Carlo simulation is performed, and rank acceptability indices help identify robust alternatives. We propose step-wise local sensitivity analysis, which is useful for practitioners to effectively elicit preferences and identify major sources of uncertainty. The approach is demonstrated in a Swiss case study where ten stakeholders are involved throughout. Their preferences are quantitatively elicited by combining an online questionnaire with face-to-face interviews. The trade-off questions reveal a high concern about environmental and an unexpectedly low importance of economic criteria. This results in a surprisingly good ranking of high-tech decentralized wastewater alternatives using urine source separation for most stakeholders in all scenarios. Combining scenario planning and MCDA proves useful, as the performance of wastewater infrastructure systems is indeed sensitive to socio-economic boundary conditions and the other sources of uncertainty. The proposed sensitivity analysis suggests that a simplified elicitation procedure is sufficient in many cases. Elicitation of more information such as detailed marginal value functions should only follow if the sensitivity analysis finds this necessary. Moreover, the uncertainty of rankings can be considerably reduced by better predictions

12. Web-based Project Reporting System

US Agency for International Development — Web-PRS is a web-based system that captures financial information and project status information that is sortable by geographical location, pillar, project type and...

13. Development of integrated scenarios to assess future conditions of aquatic ecosystems under water scarcity in the Mediterranean - perspectives from the GLOBAQUA project

Huber-Garcia, Verena; Akinsete, Ebun; Gampe, David; Ker Rault, Philippe; Kok, Kasper; Koundouri, Phoebe; Luttik, Joke; Nikulin, Grigory; Pistocchi, Alberto; Souliotis, Ioannis; Ludwig, Ralf

2017-04-01

systems experience this and a worsening of the situation can be expected if actions are not taken. To assess future conditions, spatially distributed, integrated scenarios to drive various impact models are inevitable. These simulations then assess future conditions of aquatic ecosystems, both in water quality and quantity, and in the end provide decision support. To achieve this goal, a modeling framework is set up to develop integrated scenarios of changes in climate, land use and water management. These scenarios are based on storylines around various Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), as established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and developed in collaboration with project partners and experts. Major challenges stem from the downscaling of these to the regional scale. Projections of future climate conditions originate from the simulations provided through the EURO-CORDEX project. An ensemble of different General Circulation Models (GCMs) driving various Regional Climate Models (RCMs) is available. After a thorough investigation of these projections and an estimation of the uncertainty envelope, a small subset of models was chosen in a carefully conducted selection procedure, following a cluster analysis. These selected simulations were downscaled to better represent the regional conditions and provide the implications of the RCPs in the storylines. The impacts of the SSPs are represented in spatially distributed land use maps developed through the land use change model iCLUE (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects). In a first step knowledge on past land use change is required and an analysis was carried out based on the CORINE land cover data. Extensive expert surveys have been conducted in the case study areas to determine the most important drivers of these changes, considering both, biophysical and socio-economic variables. The results of these were implemented in iCLUE taking into account

14. [Scenario analysis on sustainable development of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city based on emergy and system dynamics].

Li, Chun-fa; Cao, Ying-ying; Yang, Jian-cho; Yang, Qi-qi

2015-08-01

Dynamic evaluation of sustainable development is one of the key fundamental parts of the success of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city, which is the first eco-city in China constructed by international cooperation. Based on the analysis of nature and economy, function and structure, planning control indices and so on, we constructed a sustainable development evaluation index system and a system dynamics model of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city to explore dynamic trends of its population, material and currency by comprehensive utilization of emergy analysis and system dynamics method. Five scenarios were set up and simulated, including inertial scenario, scientific and technological scenario, economic scenario, environmental scenario and harmonious development scenario. Then, the sustainability of the 5 scenarios was evaluated and compared. The results showed that in the economy and environment sustainable development scenario, there was a steady growth trend of GDP, accumulation of both emergy and currency, and relatively lower values in emergy waste ratio, emergy ratio of waste, and emergy loading ratio. Although both sustainable evaluation indices, such as ESI and UEI, were relatively low, the economy and environment sustainable development scenario was still the best development scenario which was more active than others.

15. Kernel based subspace projection of hyperspectral images

Larsen, Rasmus; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Arngren, Morten

In hyperspectral image analysis an exploratory approach to analyse the image data is to conduct subspace projections. As linear projections often fail to capture the underlying structure of the data, we present kernel based subspace projections of PCA and Maximum Autocorrelation Factors (MAF). Th......). The MAF projection exploits the fact that interesting phenomena in images typically exhibit spatial autocorrelation. The analysis is based on nearinfrared hyperspectral images of maize grains demonstrating the superiority of the kernelbased MAF method....

16. Blind estimation of the number of speech source in reverberant multisource scenarios based on binaural signals

May, Tobias; van de Par, Steven

2012-01-01

position. Then, each candidate position is characterized by a set of features. In addition to exploiting the overall spectral shape, a new set of mask-based features is proposed which aims at characterizing the pattern of the estimated binary mask. The decision stage for detecting a speech source is based...... on a support vector machine (SVM) classifier. A systematic analysis shows that the proposed algorithm is able to blindly determine the number and the corresponding spatial positions of speech sources in multisource scenarios and generalizes well to unknown acoustic conditions...

17. Projection of global terrestrial nitrous oxide emission using future scenarios of climate and land-use management

Inatomi, M. I.; Ito, A.

2016-12-01

Nitrous oxide (N2O), with a centennial mean residence time in the atmosphere, is one of the most remarkable greenhouse gases. Because natural and anthropogenic emissions make comparable contributions, we need to take account of different sources of N2O such as natural soils and fertilizer in croplands to predict the future emission change and to discuss its mitigation. In this study, we conduct a series of simulations of future change in nitrous oxide emission from terrestrial ecosystems using a process-based model, VISIT. We assume a couple of scenarios of future climate change, atmospheric nitrogen deposition, fertilizer input, and land-use change. In particular, we develop a new scenario of cropland fertilizer input on the basis of changes in crop productivity and fertilizer production cost. Expansion of biofuel crop production is considered but in a simplified manner (e.g., a specific fraction of pasture conversion to biofuel cultivation). Regional and temporal aspects of N2O emission are investigated and compared with previous studies. Finally, we make discussions, on the basis of simulated results, about the high-end of N2O emission, mitigation options, and impact of fertilizer input.

18. A new scenario-based approach to damage detection using operational modal parameter estimates

Hansen, J. B.; Brincker, R.; López-Aenlle, M.; Overgaard, C. F.; Kloborg, K.

2017-09-01

In this paper a vibration-based damage localization and quantification method, based on natural frequencies and mode shapes, is presented. The proposed technique is inspired by a damage assessment methodology based solely on the sensitivity of mass-normalized experimental determined mode shapes. The present method differs by being based on modal data extracted by means of Operational Modal Analysis (OMA) combined with a reasonable Finite Element (FE) representation of the test structure and implemented in a scenario-based framework. Besides a review of the basic methodology this paper addresses fundamental theoretical as well as practical considerations which are crucial to the applicability of a given vibration-based damage assessment configuration. Lastly, the technique is demonstrated on an experimental test case using automated OMA. Both the numerical study as well as the experimental test case presented in this paper are restricted to perturbations concerning mass change.

19. Future waste treatment and energy systems – examples of joint scenarios

Münster, M., E-mail: maem@dtu.dk [System Analysis Division, DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000 Roskilde (Denmark); Finnveden, G. [KTH Royal Institute of Technology, School of Architecture and the Built Environment, Department of Planning and Environment, Division of Environmental Strategies Research – fms, 100 44 Stockholm (Sweden); Wenzel, H. [Institute of Chemical Engineering, Biotechnology and Environmental Technology, University of Southern Denmark, Niels Bohrs Allé 1, 5230 Odense M (Denmark)

2013-11-15

Highlights: • Approach for use of scenarios dealing with both waste management and energy issues. • Overall scenarios for the common project and sub-scenarios in parts of the project. • Combining different types of scenarios to the tools of different disciplines. • Use of explorative external scenarios based on marginals for consequential LCA. - Abstract: Development and use of scenarios for large interdisciplinary projects is a complicated task. This article provides practical examples of how it has been carried out in two projects addressing waste management and energy issues respectively. Based on experiences from the two projects, recommendations are made for an approach concerning development of scenarios in projects dealing with both waste management and energy issues. Recommendations are given to develop and use overall scenarios for the project and leave room for sub-scenarios in parts of the project. Combining different types of scenarios is recommended, too, in order to adapt to the methods and tools of different disciplines, such as developing predictive scenarios with general equilibrium tools and analysing explorative scenarios with energy system analysis tools. Furthermore, as marginals identified in differing future background systems determine the outcomes of consequential life cycle assessments (LCAs), it is considered advisable to develop and use explorative external scenarios based on possible marginals as a framework for consequential LCAs. This approach is illustrated using an on-going Danish research project.

20. Moving from pixels to parcels: Modeling agricultural scenarios in the northern Great Plains using a hybrid raster- and vector-based approach

Sohl, T.; Wika, S.; Dornbierer, J.; Sayler, K. L.; Quenzer, R.

2015-12-01

Policy and economic driving forces have resulted in a higher demand for biofuel feedstocks in recent years, resulting in substantial increases in cultivated cropland in the northern Great Plains. A cellulosic-based biofuel industry could potentially further impact the region, with grassland and marginal agricultural land converted to perennial grasses or other feedstocks. Scenarios of projected land-use change are needed to enable regional stakeholders to plan for the potential consequences of expanded agricultural activity. Land-use models used to produce spatially explicit scenarios are typically raster-based and are poor at representing ownership units on which land-use change is based. This work describes a hybrid raster/vector-based modeling approach for modeling scenarios of agricultural change in the northern Great Plains. Regional scenarios of agricultural change from 2012 to 2050 were constructed, based partly on the U.S. Department of Energy's Billion Ton Update. Land-use data built from the 2012 Cropland Data Layer and the 2011 National Land Cover Database was used to establish initial conditions. Field boundaries from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Common Land Unit dataset were used to establish ownership units. A modified version of the U.S. Geological Survey's Forecasting Scenarios of land-use (FORE-SCE) model was used to ingest vector-based field boundaries to facilitate the modeling of a farmer's choice of land use for a given year, while patch-based raster methodologies were used to represent expansion of urban/developed lands and other land use conversions. All modeled data were merged to a common raster dataset representing annual land use from 2012 to 2050. The hybrid modeling approach enabled the use of traditional, raster-based methods while integrating vector-based data to represent agricultural fields and other ownership-based units upon which land-use decisions are typically made.

1. Understanding Land System Change Through Scenario-Based Simulations: A Case Study from the Drylands in Northern China.

Liu, Zhifeng; Verburg, Peter H; Wu, Jianguo; He, Chunyang

2017-03-01

The drylands in northern China are expected to face dramatic land system change in the context of socioeconomic development and environmental conservation. Recent studies have addressed changes of land cover with socioeconomic development in the drylands in northern China. However, the changes in land use intensity and the potential role of environmental conservation measures have yet to be adequately examined. Given the importance of land management intensity to the ecological conditions and regional sustainability, our study projected land system change in Hohhot city in the drylands in northern China from 2013 to 2030. Here, land systems are defined as combinations of land cover and land use intensity. Using the CLUMondo model, we simulated land system change in Hohhot under three scenarios: a scenario following historical trends, a scenario with strong socioeconomic and land use planning, and a scenario focused on achieving environmental conservation targets. Our results showed that Hohhot is likely to experience agricultural intensification and urban growth under all three scenarios. The agricultural intensity and the urban growth rate were much higher under the historical trend scenario compared to those with more planning interventions. The dynamics of grasslands depend strongly on projections of livestock and other claims on land resources. In the historical trend scenario, intensively grazed grasslands increase whereas a large amount of the current area of grasslands with livestock converts to forest under the scenario with strong planning. Strong conversion from grasslands with livestock and extensive cropland to semi-natural grasslands was estimated under the conservation scenario. The findings provide an input into discussions about environmental management, planning and sustainable land system design for Hohhot.

2. Understanding Land System Change Through Scenario-Based Simulations: A Case Study from the Drylands in Northern China

Liu, Zhifeng; Verburg, Peter H.; Wu, Jianguo; He, Chunyang

2017-03-01

The drylands in northern China are expected to face dramatic land system change in the context of socioeconomic development and environmental conservation. Recent studies have addressed changes of land cover with socioeconomic development in the drylands in northern China. However, the changes in land use intensity and the potential role of environmental conservation measures have yet to be adequately examined. Given the importance of land management intensity to the ecological conditions and regional sustainability, our study projected land system change in Hohhot city in the drylands in northern China from 2013 to 2030. Here, land systems are defined as combinations of land cover and land use intensity. Using the CLUMondo model, we simulated land system change in Hohhot under three scenarios: a scenario following historical trends, a scenario with strong socioeconomic and land use planning, and a scenario focused on achieving environmental conservation targets. Our results showed that Hohhot is likely to experience agricultural intensification and urban growth under all three scenarios. The agricultural intensity and the urban growth rate were much higher under the historical trend scenario compared to those with more planning interventions. The dynamics of grasslands depend strongly on projections of livestock and other claims on land resources. In the historical trend scenario, intensively grazed grasslands increase whereas a large amount of the current area of grasslands with livestock converts to forest under the scenario with strong planning. Strong conversion from grasslands with livestock and extensive cropland to semi-natural grasslands was estimated under the conservation scenario. The findings provide an input into discussions about environmental management, planning and sustainable land system design for Hohhot.

3. Using scenario-based training to promote information literacy among on-call consultant pediatricians.

Pettersson, Jonas; Bjorkander, Emil; Bark, Sirpa; Holmgren, Daniel; Wekell, Per

2017-07-01

Traditionally, teaching hospital staff to search for medical information relies heavily on educator-defined search methods. In contrast, the authors describe our experiences using real-time scenarios to teach on-call consultant pediatricians information literacy skills as part of a two-year continuing professional development program. Two information-searching workshops were held at Sahlgrenska University Hospital in Gothenburg, Sweden. During the workshops, pediatricians were presented with medical scenarios that were closely related to their clinical practice. Participants were initially encouraged to solve the problems using their own preferred search methods, followed by group discussions led by clinical educators and a medical librarian in which search problems were identified and overcome. The workshops were evaluated using questionnaires to assess participant satisfaction and the extent to which participants intended to implement changes in their clinical practice and reported actual change. A scenario-based approach to teaching clinicians how to search for medical information is an attractive alternative to traditional lectures. The relevance of such an approach was supported by a high level of participant engagement during the workshops and high scores for participant satisfaction, intended changes to clinical practice, and reported benefits in actual clinical practice.

4. Regional Issue Identification and Assessment (RIIA): an analysis of the Mid-Range Projection Series C Scenario. Executive summary for Federal Region IV

Honea, B.; Hillsman, E.

1979-10-01

The Department of Energy (DOE) has hypothesized a number of alternate energy futures as part of its energy planning and analysis programs. In this report, which is part of DOE's Regional Issue Identification and Assessment (RIIA) Program, Oak Ridge National Laboratory examines how a proposed energy future called the Mid-Range Projection Series C Scenario would affect Federal Region IV (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee). This scenario, to be called the Series C Scenario, assumes a medium supply and a medium demand for fuel through 1990, and it incorporates the fuel switching provisions of the Energy Supply and Environmental Coordination Act. The report portrays the major regional environmental, human health and safety, socioeconomic, and institutional effects that might result from the implementation of the Series C Scenario.

5. A Two-Account Life Insurance Model for Scenario-Based Valuation Including Event Risk

Ninna Reitzel Jensen

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Using a two-account model with event risk, we model life insurance contracts taking into account both guaranteed and non-guaranteed payments in participating life insurance as well as in unit-linked insurance. Here, event risk is used as a generic term for life insurance events, such as death, disability, etc. In our treatment of participating life insurance, we have special focus on the bonus schemes “consolidation” and “additional benefits”, and one goal is to formalize how these work and interact. Another goal is to describe similarities and differences between participating life insurance and unit-linked insurance. By use of a two-account model, we are able to illustrate general concepts without making the model too abstract. To allow for complicated financial markets without dramatically increasing the mathematical complexity, we focus on economic scenarios. We illustrate the use of our model by conducting scenario analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation, but the model applies to scenarios in general and to worst-case and best-estimate scenarios in particular. In addition to easy computations, our model offers a common framework for the valuation of life insurance payments across product types. This enables comparison of participating life insurance products and unit-linked insurance products, thus building a bridge between the two different ways of formalizing life insurance products. Finally, our model distinguishes itself from the existing literature by taking into account the Markov model for the state of the policyholder and, hereby, facilitating event risk.

6. Scenario based seismic hazard assessment and its application to the seismic verification of relevant buildings

Romanelli, Fabio; Vaccari, Franco; Altin, Giorgio; Panza, Giuliano

2016-04-01

The procedure we developed, and applied to a few relevant cases, leads to the seismic verification of a building by: a) use of a scenario based neodeterministic approach (NDSHA) for the calculation of the seismic input, and b) control of the numerical modeling of an existing building, using free vibration measurements of the real structure. The key point of this approach is the strict collaboration, from the seismic input definition to the monitoring of the response of the building in the calculation phase, of the seismologist and the civil engineer. The vibrometry study allows the engineer to adjust the computational model in the direction suggested by the experimental result of a physical measurement. Once the model has been calibrated by vibrometric analysis, one can select in the design spectrum the proper range of periods of interest for the structure. Then, the realistic values of spectral acceleration, which include the appropriate amplification obtained through the modeling of a "scenario" input to be applied to the final model, can be selected. Generally, but not necessarily, the "scenario" spectra lead to higher accelerations than those deduced by taking the spectra from the national codes (i.e. NTC 2008, for Italy). The task of the verifier engineer is to act so that the solution of the verification is conservative and realistic. We show some examples of the application of the procedure to some relevant (e.g. schools) buildings of the Trieste Province. The adoption of the scenario input has given in most of the cases an increase of critical elements that have to be taken into account in the design of reinforcements. However, the higher cost associated with the increase of elements to reinforce is reasonable, especially considering the important reduction of the risk level.

7. Future Changes in Surface Runoff over Korea Projected by a Regional Climate Model under A1B Scenario

Ji-Woo Lee

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This study assesses future change of surface runoff due to climate change over Korea using a regional climate model (RCM, namely, the Global/Regional Integrated Model System (GRIMs, Regional Model Program (RMP. The RMP is forced by future climate scenario, namely, A1B of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4. The RMP satisfactorily reproduces the observed seasonal mean and variation of surface runoff for the current climate simulation. The distribution of monsoonal precipitation-related runoff is adequately captured by the RMP. In the future (2040–2070 simulation, it is shown that the increasing trend of temperature has significant impacts on the intra-annual runoff variation. The variability of runoff is increased in summer; moreover, the strengthened possibility of extreme occurrence is detected in the future climate. This study indicates that future climate projection, including surface runoff and its variability over Korea, can be adequately addressed on the RMP testbed. Furthermore, this study reflects that global warming affects local hydrological cycle by changing major water budget components. This study adduces that the importance of runoff should not be overlooked in regional climate studies, and more elaborate presentation of fresh-water cycle is needed to close hydrological circulation in RCMs.

8. Developing Authentic Online Problem-Based Learning Case Scenarios for Teachers of Students with Visual Impairments in the United Kingdom

McLinden, Mike; McCall, Steve; Hinton, Danielle; Weston, Annette

2010-01-01

This article reports on the development of online problem-based learning case scenarios for use in a distance education program for teachers of students with visual impairments in the United Kingdom. Following participation in two case scenarios, a cohort of teachers provided feedback. This feedback was analyzed in relation to the relevant…

9. A Statistical Bias Correction Tool for Generating Climate Change Scenarios in Indonesia based on CMIP5 Datasets

Faqih, A.

2017-03-01

Providing information regarding future climate scenarios is very important in climate change study. The climate scenario can be used as basic information to support adaptation and mitigation studies. In order to deliver future climate scenarios over specific region, baseline and projection data from the outputs of global climate models (GCM) is needed. However, due to its coarse resolution, the data have to be downscaled and bias corrected in order to get scenario data with better spatial resolution that match the characteristics of the observed data. Generating this downscaled data is mostly difficult for scientist who do not have specific background, experience and skill in dealing with the complex data from the GCM outputs. In this regards, it is necessary to develop a tool that can be used to simplify the downscaling processes in order to help scientist, especially in Indonesia, for generating future climate scenario data that can be used for their climate change-related studies. In this paper, we introduce a tool called as “Statistical Bias Correction for Climate Scenarios (SiBiaS)”. The tool is specially designed to facilitate the use of CMIP5 GCM data outputs and process their statistical bias corrections relative to the reference data from observations. It is prepared for supporting capacity building in climate modeling in Indonesia as part of the Indonesia 3rd National Communication (TNC) project activities.

10. Kernel based subspace projection of hyperspectral images

Larsen, Rasmus; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Arngren, Morten

In hyperspectral image analysis an exploratory approach to analyse the image data is to conduct subspace projections. As linear projections often fail to capture the underlying structure of the data, we present kernel based subspace projections of PCA and Maximum Autocorrelation Factors (MAF...

11. Measurement based scenario analysis of short-range distribution system planning

Chen, Peiyuan; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte; Chen, Zhe

2009-01-01

This paper focuses on short-range distribution system planning using a probabilistic approach. Empirical probabilistic distributions of load demand and distributed generations are derived from the historical measurement data and incorporated into the system planning. Simulations with various...... feasible scenarios are performed based on a local distribution system at Støvring in Denmark. Simulation results provide more accurate and insightful information for the decision-maker when using the probabilistic analysis than using the worst-case analysis, so that a better planning can be achieved....

12. Security in Collaborative Multimedia Web-based Art Projects

Dimitrios K. Koukopoulos

2010-10-01

Full Text Available We propose a web-based system for organizing the creation and the interaction in multimedia web-based environments that permit the collaboration among artists, audience, curators and publishers. This system uses a threelevel approach for handling security issues in multimedia projects. Especially, it applies authorization, digital certification and watermarking mechanisms on multimedia content. Authorization mechanism controls users operations in multimedia files based on a set of actions imposed on reallife scenarios. Digital certification mechanism ensures the secure content transfers among users and multimedia content server through Web. Digital watermarking mechanism handles copyright-protection and authentication issues that appear in multimedia systems applying a semantically secure watermark. The strength of our system considers multimedia content not as an atomic digital entity, but as a part of a project with a specific workflow that applies watermarking techniques in all its parts.

13. Offshore Wind Energy Climate Projection Using UPSCALE Climate Data under the RCP8.5 Emission Scenario.

Gross, Markus; Magar, Vanesa

2016-01-01

In previous work, the authors demonstrated how data from climate simulations can be utilized to estimate regional wind power densities. In particular, it was shown that the quality of wind power densities, estimated from the UPSCALE global dataset in offshore regions of Mexico, compared well with regional high resolution studies. Additionally, a link between surface temperature and moist air density in the estimates was presented. UPSCALE is an acronym for UK on PRACE (the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe)-weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk. The UPSCALE experiment was performed in 2012 by NCAS (National Centre for Atmospheric Science)-Climate, at the University of Reading and the UK Met Office Hadley Centre. The study included a 25.6-year, five-member ensemble simulation of the HadGEM3 global atmosphere, at 25km resolution for present climate conditions. The initial conditions for the ensemble runs were taken from consecutive days of a test configuration. In the present paper, the emphasis is placed on the single climate run for a potential future climate scenario in the UPSCALE experiment dataset, using the Representation Concentrations Pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario. Firstly, some tests were performed to ensure that the results using only one instantiation of the current climate dataset are as robust as possible within the constraints of the available data. In order to achieve this, an artificial time series over a longer sampling period was created. Then, it was shown that these longer time series provided almost the same results than the short ones, thus leading to the argument that the short time series is sufficient to capture the climate. Finally, with the confidence that one instantiation is sufficient, the future climate dataset was analysed to provide, for the first time, a projection of future changes in wind power resources using the UPSCALE dataset. It is hoped that this, in turn, will provide

14. Future waste treatment and energy production – an example of development of joint scenarios

Münster, Marie; Finnveden, G.; Wenzel, H.

2012-01-01

Development and use of scenarios for large interdisciplinary projects is a complicated task. The article gives practical examples of how this has been done in two projects addressing waste management and energy issues respectively. Based on experiences from the two projects, recommendations...... are made for an approach for development of scenarios dealing with both waste management and energy issues. It is recommended to develop and use overall scenarios for the common project and leave room for sub-scenarios in parts of the project and to combine different types of scenarios to adapt...

15. Scenario-based design: A method for connecting information system design with public health operations and emergency management

Reeder, Blaine; Turner, Anne M

2011-01-01

Responding to public health emergencies requires rapid and accurate assessment of workforce availability under adverse and changing circumstances. However, public health information systems to support resource management during both routine and emergency operations are currently lacking. We applied scenario-based design as an approach to engage public health practitioners in the creation and validation of an information design to support routine and emergency public health activities. Methods: Using semi-structured interviews we identified the information needs and activities of senior public health managers of a large municipal health department during routine and emergency operations. Results: Interview analysis identified twenty-five information needs for public health operations management. The identified information needs were used in conjunction with scenario-based design to create twenty-five scenarios of use and a public health manager persona. Scenarios of use and persona were validated and modified based on follow-up surveys with study participants. Scenarios were used to test and gain feedback on a pilot information system. Conclusion: The method of scenario-based design was applied to represent the resource management needs of senior-level public health managers under routine and disaster settings. Scenario-based design can be a useful tool for engaging public health practitioners in the design process and to validate an information system design. PMID:21807120

16. Scenario research: Can the future be predicted?

Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette

2000-01-01

whether the shopping situation described will become a reality, but attempts can be made to come up with qualified indications on possible development directions. In connection with a scenario research project, researchers from MAPP and the Danish Technological University have looked into the future...... possible futures. In the process of creating the scenarios, researchers at MAPP and the Danish Technical University formulated mini scenarios based on their research. The scenarios were used as inspiration in discussions with experts from industry, trade organisations, authorities etc. and later discussed...... and supplemented at workshops - one for each of the four sectors. Experts from industry, trade organisations, retailing, authorities and other interested parties participated....

17. Emergence of the First Catalytic Oligonucleotides in a Formamide-Based Origin Scenario.

Šponer, Judit E; Šponer, Jiří; Nováková, Olga; Brabec, Viktor; Šedo, Ondrej; Zdráhal, Zbyněk; Costanzo, Giovanna; Pino, Samanta; Saladino, Raffaele; Di Mauro, Ernesto

2016-03-07

50 years after the historical Miller-Urey experiment, the formamide-based scenario is perhaps the most powerful concurrent hypothesis for the origin of life on our planet besides the traditional HCN-based concept. The information accumulated during the last 15 years in this topic is astonishingly growing and nowadays the formamide-based model represents one of the most complete and coherent pathways leading from simple prebiotic precursors up to the first catalytically active RNA molecules. In this work, we overview the major events of this long pathway that have emerged from recent experimental and theoretical studies, mainly concentrating on the mechanistic, methodological, and structural aspects of this research. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

18. Multi-Purpose Avionic Architecture for Vision Based Navigation Systems for EDL and Surface Mobility Scenarios

Tramutola, A.; Paltro, D.; Cabalo Perucha, M. P.; Paar, G.; Steiner, J.; Barrio, A. M.

2015-09-01

Vision Based Navigation (VBNAV) has been identified as a valid technology to support space exploration because it can improve autonomy and safety of space missions. Several mission scenarios can benefit from the VBNAV: Rendezvous & Docking, Fly-Bys, Interplanetary cruise, Entry Descent and Landing (EDL) and Planetary Surface exploration. For some of them VBNAV can improve the accuracy in state estimation as additional relative navigation sensor or as absolute navigation sensor. For some others, like surface mobility and terrain exploration for path identification and planning, VBNAV is mandatory. This paper presents the general avionic architecture of a Vision Based System as defined in the frame of the ESA R&T study “Multi-purpose Vision-based Navigation System Engineering Model - part 1 (VisNav-EM-1)” with special focus on the surface mobility application.

19. Projected changes of soil organic carbon in agricultural soils of southeast Germany in the 21th century under different carbon input scenarios

Wiesmeier, Martin; Poeplau, Christopher; Sierra, Carlos; Maier, Harald; Hübner, Rico; Kühnel, Anna; Spörlein, Peter; Geuß, Uwe; Hangen, Edzard; Schilling, Bernd; von Lützow, Margit; Kögel-Knabner, Ingrid

2016-04-01

As climate change may have a distinct effect on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks, projections of the future SOC development on larger spatial scales on the basis of soil carbon models are needed. In this study we simulated the SOC development in cropland and grassland soils of Bavaria (southeast Germany) between 2000 and 2095 using the RothC model. At 51 sampling locations detailed model input data as C pools derived by soil fractionation, C input, clay content and climate variables were determined to run the model. Projections for each sampling location were performed on the basis of an average climate scenario (A1B) and three C input scenarios as a realistic range of possible crop yield developments: stagnation of the C input (1) increase by 20% (2) and decrease by 20% (3). The results showed a general decline of SOC stocks of 12% during the 21th century under C input scenario 1 and a decrease of 21% under scenario 3. Remarkably, even the optimistic scenario 2 resulted in a noticeable decline of SOC stocks by 5%. Our study indicated that C inputs in agricultural soils of Bavaria have to increase by 30% until 2095 (given the A1B climate scenario) in order to maintain present SOC stocks. However, projected SOC changes largely depended on the soil unit and regional site characteristics. The modeling approach provides the basis for a further evaluation of changes of the land use management and enables a site-specific delineation of measures for a sustainable supply of soil organic matter under climate change.

20. Global projections for anthropogenic reactive nitrogen emissions to the atmosphere: An assessment of scenarios in the scientific literature

van Vuuren, D.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Bouwman, L.F.; Smith, S.J.; Dentener, F.

2011-01-01

Most long-term scenarios of global reactive nitrogen (Nr) emissions to the atmosphere are produced by Integrated Assessment Models in the context of climate change assessments. These scenarios indicate that these global Nr emissions are likely to increase in the next decades, followed by a

1. A model based bayesian solution for characterization of complex damage scenarios in aerospace composite structures.

Reed, H; Leckey, Cara A C; Dick, A; Harvey, G; Dobson, J

2017-09-05

Ultrasonic damage detection and characterization is commonly used in nondestructive evaluation (NDE) of aerospace composite components. In recent years there has been an increased development of guided wave based methods. In real materials and structures, these dispersive waves result in complicated behavior in the presence of complex damage scenarios. Model-based characterization methods utilize accurate three dimensional finite element models (FEMs) of guided wave interaction with realistic damage scenarios to aid in defect identification and classification. This work describes an inverse solution for realistic composite damage characterization by comparing the wavenumber-frequency spectra of experimental and simulated ultrasonic inspections. The composite laminate material properties are first verified through a Bayesian solution (Markov chain Monte Carlo), enabling uncertainty quantification surrounding the characterization. A study is undertaken to assess the efficacy of the proposed damage model and comparative metrics between the experimental and simulated output. The FEM is then parameterized with a damage model capable of describing the typical complex damage created by impact events in composites. The damage is characterized through a transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo solution, enabling a flexible damage model capable of adapting to the complex damage geometry investigated here. The posterior probability distributions of the individual delamination petals as well as the overall envelope of the damage site are determined. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

2. Microalgae-based biodiesel: a multicriteria analysis of the production process using realistic scenarios.

Torres, Carmen M; Ríos, Sergio D; Torras, Carles; Salvadó, Joan; Mateo-Sanz, Josep M; Jiménez, Laureano

2013-11-01

Microalgae-based biodiesel has several benefits over other resources such as less land use, potential cultivation in non-fertile locations, faster growth and especially a high lipid-to-biodiesel yield. Nevertheless, the environmental and economic behavior for high scale production depends on several variables that must be addressed in the scale-up procedure. In this sense, rigorous modeling and multicriteria evaluation are performed in order to achieve optimal topology for third generation biodiesel production. Different scenarios and the most promising technologies tested at pilot scale are assessed. Besides, the sensitivity analysis allows the detection of key operating variables and assumptions that have a direct effect on the lipid content. The deviation of these variables may lead to an erroneous estimation of the scale-up performance of the technology reviewed in the microalgae-based biodiesel process. The modeling and evaluation of different scenarios of the harvesting, oil extraction and transesterification help to identify greener and cheaper alternatives. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

3. Enhanced oil recovery projects data base

Pautz, J.F.; Sellers, C.A.; Nautiyal, C.; Allison, E.

1992-04-01

A comprehensive enhanced oil recovery (EOR) project data base is maintained and updated at the Bartlesville Project Office of the Department of Energy. This data base provides an information resource that is used to analyze the advancement and application of EOR technology. The data base has extensive information on 1,388 EOR projects in 569 different oil fields from 1949 until the present, and over 90% of that information is contained in tables and graphs of this report. The projects are presented by EOR process, and an index by location is provided.

4. Korean mean and extreme sea levels projection under AR5 climate change scenarios using Monte-Carlo simulations

Cha, W. Y.; Choi, J.; Okjeong, L.; Park, Y.; Lee, J.; Kim, S.

2016-12-01

Coastal areas are vulnerable to sea level rise. However, the preparation capability for sea level rise of South Korea is insufficient. Global sea level rise due to climate change is causing a lot of damage to the coastal zone. In addition, since the coastal population in South Korea shows a growing trend, many coastal cities are likely to become more vulnerable to sea level rise. The impacts of future sea level rise will affect shoreline erosion, the disappearance of coastal wetlands, the intrusion of sea water, and increased flood vulnerability due to the performance reduction of the hydraulic structures. The purpose of this study is to estimate the increase amount of the Korea sea level rise under AR5 climate change scenarios. The study area is Busan, Incheon, Mokpo, and Sokcho, which are coastal cities representing South Korea. In order to consider the global and local components for future sea level rise at the same time, the accelerating rates of sea level rise for each city are first calculated using the global rate of sea level rise presented in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. After that, the local sea level rise trend derived from observations of each city is additionally considered, and the final future sea level rise is projected. In addition, uncertainties included in the acceleration rate from the global sea level rise and localized upward trend derived from local observations are reflected in probabilistic projection of the future sea level rise range. In a similar way, the extreme sea level rise is also estimated. Simulation results show that extreme sea levels in 2100 could rise by more than 1 meter. It is also expected to increase the rate of sea level rise gradually with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The results of this study will be utilized for flood vulnerability assessment in coastal areas of South Korea later. AcknowledgementThis research was supported by a grant `Development of the Evaluation Technology for Complex Causes of

5. Preparing to Prevent: Conflict-Related Sexual Violence Mitigation Scenario-Based Training

2014-11-26

Report of Abducted Children Scenario 5 Situation Kidnapping and sex trafficking is rampant in the area, and many children have been...the rapists are probably still in that vicinity. Scenario 5 (Patrol Encounter: Report of Abducted Children). Kidnapping and sex trafficking is rampant...Encounter: Escaped Sex Slave 35 Other Scenarios 37 Handout: CRSV

6. Using Groupware to Build a Scenario-Based Early Warning System

Mullekom, T.L. van; Vennix, J.A.M.

2004-01-01

Scenario analysis has been used as a technique to support strategy formulation for several decades. During scenario analyses, the effects of different possible futures (scenarios) on the performance of an organization are assessed. Moreover, actions are formulated to deal with these effects. This an

7. Version Control in Project-Based Learning

Milentijevic, Ivan; Ciric, Vladimir; Vojinovic, Oliver

2008-01-01

This paper deals with the development of a generalized model for version control systems application as a support in a range of project-based learning methods. The model is given as UML sequence diagram and described in detail. The proposed model encompasses a wide range of different project-based learning approaches by assigning a supervisory…

8. Transformation to problem and project based learning

2006-01-01

. However, the internal factors at the institutional level may be unknown. Institutions have developed many different pedagogical models, using very different strategies for development. Nearly all Danish engineering institutions have implemented elements of Problem Based and Project Based Learning (PBL...

9. Microalgae-based biodiesel: economic analysis of downstream process realistic scenarios.

Ríos, Sergio D; Torres, Carmen M; Torras, Carles; Salvadó, Joan; Mateo-Sanz, Josep M; Jiménez, Laureano

2013-05-01

Microalgae oil has been identified as a reliable resource for biodiesel production due to its high lipid productivity and potential cultivation in non-fertile locations. However, high scale production of microalgae based biodiesel depends on the optimization of the entire process to be economically feasible. The selected strain, medium, harvesting methods, etc., sorely affects the ash content in the dry biomass which have a direct effect in the lipid content. Moreover, the suitable lipids for biodiesel production, some of the neutral/saponifiable, are only a fraction of the total ones (around 30% dry base biomass in the best case). The present work uses computational tools for the modeling of different scenarios of the harvesting, oil extraction and transesterification. This rigorous modeling approach detects process bottlenecks that could have led to an overestimation of the potentiality of the microalgae lipids as a resource for the biodiesel production. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

10. Scenario-based Simulation of Criticality Concerning the Transportation of Dangerous Goods

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The critical infrastructure protection domain, through its social implications, is a relatively new research topic, and a science in this regard is not setup yet. Its complexity, through the operational subsumed areas, through the interdependencies and cascading possible effects, through the many facets for investigation, is a special one which imposes specific approaches. This paper intends to continue the investigations in this field, which are conducted in an individual manner or by research teams, by authors with concerns in this regard who agreed to allocate to the topical subject a special attention based on its importance, beyond an exclusive approach – as a special topic. This time, there are brought into attention the issues related to chemical industry sector correlated with actual associated implications of necessary transportation activities in this field. Simulation-based scenario is the main technique employed as a research methodology by using dedicated software.

11. Organizational Diagnosis in Project-Based Companies

Behrouz Zarei

2014-05-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to develop a new method for corporate diagnosis (CD. To this end, a method is developed for the diagnosis process of project-based companies. The article presents a case study in a large company where data have been collected through focus groups. Project delay, high project cost, and low profitability are examples of project deficiency in project-based companies. Such issues have made managers pay special attention to find effective solutions to improve them. Prominent factors are inappropriate strategy, structure, system, human resource management, and PMBOK(Project Management Body of Knowledge processes. Thus, CD and analysis is an important task in improvement of corporate performance. The CD model that is developed in this article could be used for project-based companies. The proposed method can be used for CD in any project-based company. This article provides an emphatic application of CD as a prerequisite for restructuring in project-based companies.

12. Multimedia Scenario Based Learning Programme for Enhancing the English Language Efficiency among Primary School Students

Navnath Tupe

2015-07-01

Full Text Available This research was undertaken with a view to assess the deficiencies in English language among Primary School Children and to develop Multimedia Scenario Based Learning Programme (MSBLP for mastery of English language which required special attention and effective treatment. The experimental study with pretest, post-test control group design was employed to carry out the experiment of MSBLP in a sample school and to determine its efficacy for enhancing English Language skills among Primary School Students. In India, the Central and State Government has made great efforts to Education for All (EFA and initiated several programs to provide universal access to education, to reduce the drop-out rates and ensure achievement of minimum levels of learning. To our surprise the scenario had not much changed inside the classroom even implementing several programmes. However, it was still unclear how effective was the delivery of the course content in the classroom. An intensive training for teachers on a regular basis on a state-wide scale may not be feasible again and again. Hence, multimedia offers pragmatic solutions So that this research paper devoted to explore the issues of learning English and describes the creation of MSBLP as a solution in scientific manner.

13. A world of differences, the normative EOS-scenarios. Final report of a study to found the normative scenarios of the project Energy research scenarios of the Energy Study Centre (ECN, Petten, Netherlands). Een wereld van verschil, de normatieve EOS-scenario's. Eindrapport van een studie ter onderbouwing van de normatieve scenario's van het project Energie Onderzoek Scenario's van het Energie Studie Centrum (ECN, Petten)

Dinkelman, G.

1987-11-01

Three competing political and economical 'concepts of control' which underlie three normative energy-scenarios are described. The aim of the literature-research carried out for this report was to make the original scenarios more recognizable, and to find out which groups could be expected to support them. The concepts of control bear the names 'Dynamic and growth', 'Dirigation and blockbuilding' and 'Shared development'. They can be seen, so is argued, as competing perspectives on a so-called 'post-Fordist' world. The three concepts of control differ on what they see as common interests and the way they should be looked after. Topics in the description are: the desired rate of European political and economical integration, the borders of Europe, Europe's position in the world, the acceptance of new technologies, the goals they should be used for, and perceived relationships between energy, environment and economy. The scenarios show what happens if these three concepts of control become hegemonic without being forced to compromises. For all three scenarios a short sketch is given of the corresponding dominating energy- and environmental policy and of future relationships within OECD and between OECD on the one hand and NIC's/LDC's on the other. The conclusion of the report is that the ideological differences between the neoliberalism of 'Dynamic and growth' and the green, direct-democracy-politics of 'Shared development' are not as big as they were in the seventies. Especially on the new policy-areas like technology, energy and environment they get closer. But this does not mean that the concept of 'Dirigation and blockbuilding' can be put completely aside. Its goal of economic equality and its emphasis on government dirigation may become more attractive again if it comes out that market regulation leads to a dual society and that it was state-intervention (by

14. Supporting Problem Solving with Case-Stories Learning Scenario and Video-based Collaborative Learning Technology

Chun Hu

2004-04-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we suggest that case-based resources, which are used for assisting cognition during problem solving, can be structured around the work of narratives in social cultural psychology. Theories and other research methods have proposed structures within narratives and stories which may be useful to the design of case-based resources. Moreover, embedded within cases are stories which are contextually rich, supporting the epistemological groundings of situated cognition. Therefore the purposes of this paper are to discuss possible frameworks of case-stories; derive design principles as to what constitutes a good case story or narrative; and suggest how technology can support story-based learning. We adopt video-based Computer-Supported Collaborative Learning (CSCL technology to support problem solving with case-stories learning scenarios. Our hypothesis in this paper is that well-designed case-based resources are able to aid in the cognitive processes undergirding problem solving and meaning making. We also suggest the use of an emerging video-based collaborative learning technology to support such an instructional strategy.

15. Application of risk-based multiple criteria decision analysis for selection of the best agricultural scenario for effective watershed management.

Javidi Sabbaghian, Reza; Zarghami, Mahdi; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Sharifi, Mohammad Bagher; Herman, Matthew R; Daneshvar, Fariborz

2016-03-01

Effective watershed management requires the evaluation of agricultural best management practice (BMP) scenarios which carefully consider the relevant environmental, economic, and social criteria involved. In the Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) process, scenarios are first evaluated and then ranked to determine the most desirable outcome for the particular watershed. The main challenge of this process is the accurate identification of the best solution for the watershed in question, despite the various risk attitudes presented by the associated decision-makers (DMs). This paper introduces a novel approach for implementation of the MCDM process based on a comparative neutral risk/risk-based decision analysis, which results in the selection of the most desirable scenario for use in the entire watershed. At the sub-basin level, each scenario includes multiple BMPs with scores that have been calculated using the criteria derived from two cases of neutral risk and risk-based decision-making. The simple additive weighting (SAW) operator is applied for use in neutral risk decision-making, while the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) and induced OWA (IOWA) operators are effective for risk-based decision-making. At the watershed level, the BMP scores of the sub-basins are aggregated to calculate each scenarios' combined goodness measurements; the most desirable scenario for the entire watershed is then selected based on the combined goodness measurements. Our final results illustrate the type of operator and risk attitudes needed to satisfy the relevant criteria within the number of sub-basins, and how they ultimately affect the final ranking of the given scenarios. The methodology proposed here has been successfully applied to the Honeyoey Creek-Pine Creek watershed in Michigan, USA to evaluate various BMP scenarios and determine the best solution for both the stakeholders and the overall stream health.

16. A web-based 3D visualisation and assessment system for urban precinct scenario modelling

Trubka, Roman; Glackin, Stephen; Lade, Oliver; Pettit, Chris

2016-07-01

Recent years have seen an increasing number of spatial tools and technologies for enabling better decision-making in the urban environment. They have largely arisen because of the need for cities to be more efficiently planned to accommodate growing populations while mitigating urban sprawl, and also because of innovations in rendering data in 3D being well suited for visualising the urban built environment. In this paper we review a number of systems that are better known and more commonly used in the field of urban planning. We then introduce Envision Scenario Planner (ESP), a web-based 3D precinct geodesign, visualisation and assessment tool, developed using Agile and Co-design methods. We provide a comprehensive account of the tool, beginning with a discussion of its design and development process and concluding with an example use case and a discussion of the lessons learned in its development.

17. A scenario-based study on information flow and collaboration patterns in disaster management.

Sagun, Aysu; Bouchlaghem, Dino; Anumba, Chimay J

2009-04-01

Disaster management (DM) is a continuous, highly collaborative process involving governments, DM organisations, responders, the construction sector, and the general public. Most research approaches to DM include the development of information and communication technologies (ICT) to support the collaboration process rather than the creation of a collaboration process to provide information flows and patterns. An Intelligent Disaster Collaboration System (IDCS) is introduced in this paper as a conceptual model to integrate ICT into DM and the mitigation process and to enhance collaboration. The framework is applicable to the collaboration process at the local, regional and national levels. Within this context, the deployment of ICT tools in DM is explored and scenario-based case studies on flooding and terrorism--examples of natural and human-induced disasters, respectively--are presented. Conclusions are drawn regarding the differences found in collaboration patterns and ICT used during natural and human-induced disasters and the differences between currently available ICT and proposed ICT.

18. Elements of Scenario-Based Learning on Suicidal Patient Care Using Real-Time Video.

Lu, Chuehfen; Lee, Hueying; Hsu, Shuhui; Shu, Inmei

2016-01-01

This study aims understanding of students' learning experiences when receiving scenario-based learning combined with real-time video. Videos that recorded student nurses intervention with a suicidal standardized patient (SP) were replayed immediately as teaching materials. Videos clips and field notes from ten classes were analysed. Investigators and method triangulation were used to boost the robustness of the study. Three key elements, emotional involvement, concretizing of the teaching material and substitute learning were identified. Emotions were evoked among the SP, the student performer and the students who were observing, thus facilitating a learning effect. Concretizing of the teaching material refers to students were able to focus on the discussions using visual and verbal information. Substitute learning occurred when the students watching the videos, both the strengths and weaknesses represented were similar to those that would be likely to occur. These key elements explicate their learning experience and suggested a strategic teaching method.

19. ABM and GIS-based multi-scenarios volcanic evacuation modelling of Merapi

2016-05-01

Conducting effective evacuation is one of the successful keys to deal with such crisis. Therefore, a plan that considers the probability of the spatial extent of the hazard occurrences is needed. Likewise, the evacuation plan in Merapi is already prepared before the eruption on 2010. However, the plan could not be performed because the eruption magnitude was bigger than it was predicted. In this condition, the extent of the hazardous area was increased larger than the prepared hazard model. Managing such unpredicted situation need adequate information that flexible and adaptable to the current situation. Therefore, we applied an Agent-based Model (ABM) and Geographic Information System (GIS) using multi-scenarios hazard model to support the evacuation management. The methodology and the case study in Merapi is provided.

20. Future projection of Indian summer monsoon variability under climate change scenario: An assessment from CMIP5 climate models

Sharmila, S.; Joseph, S.; Sahai, A. K.; Abhilash, S.; Chattopadhyay, R.

2015-01-01

In this study, the impact of enhanced anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on the possible future changes in different aspects of daily-to-interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is systematically assessed using 20 coupled models participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5. The historical (1951-1999) and future (2051-2099) simulations under the strongest Representative Concentration Pathway have been analyzed for this purpose. A few reliable models are selected based on their competence in simulating the basic features of present-climate ISM variability. The robust and consistent projections across the selected models suggest substantial changes in the ISM variability by the end of 21st century indicating strong sensitivity of ISM to global warming. On the seasonal scale, the all-India summer monsoon mean rainfall is likely to increase moderately in future, primarily governed by enhanced thermodynamic conditions due to atmospheric warming, but slightly offset by weakened large scale monsoon circulation. It is projected that the rainfall magnitude will increase over core monsoon zone in future climate, along with lengthening of the season due to late withdrawal. On interannual timescales, it is speculated that severity and frequency of both strong monsoon (SM) and weak monsoon (WM) might increase noticeably in future climate. Substantial changes in the daily variability of ISM are also projected, which are largely associated with the increase in heavy rainfall events and decrease in both low rain-rate and number of wet days during future monsoon. On the subseasonal scale, the model projections depict considerable amplification of higher frequency (below 30 day mode) components; although the dominant northward propagating 30-70 day mode of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations may not change appreciably in a warmer climate. It is speculated that the enhanced high frequency mode of monsoon ISOs due to increased GHG induced warming

1. Regional climate change over South Korea projected by the HadGEM2-AO and WRF model chain under RCP emission scenarios

Ahn, Joong-Bae; Im, Eun-Soon; Jo, Sera

2017-04-01

This study assesses the regional climate projection newly projected within the framework of the national downscaling project in South Korea. The fine-scale climate information (12.5 km) is produced by dynamical downscaling of the HadGEM2-AO global projections forced by the representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5 and 8.5) scenarios using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) modeling system. Changes in temperature and precipitation in terms of long-term trends, daily characteristics and extremes are presented by comparing two 30 yr periods (2041-2070 vs. 2071-2100). The temperature increase presents a relevant trend, but the degree of warming varies in different periods and emission scenarios. While the temperature distribution from the RCP8.5 projection is continuously shifted toward warmer conditions by the end of the 21st century, the RCP4.5 projection appears to stabilize warming in accordance with emission forcing. This shift in distribution directly affects the magnitude of extremes, which enhances extreme hot days but reduces extreme cold days. Precipitation changes, however, do not respond monotonically to emission forcing, as they exhibit less sensitivity to different emission scenarios. An enhancement of high intensity precipitation and a reduction of weak intensity precipitation are discernible, implying an intensified hydrologic cycle. Changes in return levels of annual maximum precipitation suggest an increased probability of extreme precipitation with 20 yr and 50 yr return periods. Acknowledgement : This work was funded by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under grant KMIPA 2015-2081

2. Modeling post-fire sediment yield based on two burn scenarios at the Sooke Lake Reservoir, BC, Canada

Dobre, Mariana; Elliot, William J.; Brooks, Erin S.; Smith, Tim

2016-04-01

Wildfires can have major adverse effects on municipal water sources. Local governments need methods to evaluate fire risk and to develop mitigation procedures. The Sooke Lake Reservoir is the primary source of water for the city of Victoria, BC and the concern is that sediment delivered from upland burned areas could have a detrimental impact on the reservoir and the water supply. We conducted a sediment delivery modeling pilot study on a portion of the Sooke Lake Reservoir (specifically, the Trestle Creek Management Unit (TCMU)) to evaluate the potential impacts of wildfire on sediment delivery from hillslopes and sub-catchments. We used a process-based hydrologic and soil erosion model called Water Erosion Prediction Project geospatial interface, GeoWEPP, to predict the sediment delivery from specific return period design storms for two burn severity scenarios: real (low-intensity burn severity) and worst (high-intensity burn severity) case scenarios. The GeoWEPP model allows users to simulate streamflow and erosion from hillslope polygons within a watershed. The model requires information on the topographic, soil and vegetative characteristics for each hillslope and a weather file. WEPP default values and several assumptions were necessary to apply the model where data were missing. Based on a 10-m DEM we delineated 16 watersheds within the TCMU area. A long term 100-year daily climate file was generated for this analysis using the CLIGEN model based on the historical observations recorded at Concrete, WA in United States, and adjusted for observed monthly precipitation observed in the Sooke Basin. We ran 100-year simulations and calculated yearly and event-based return periods (for 2, 5, 10, 20, 25, and 50 years) for each of the 16 watersheds. Overall, WEPP simulations indicate that the storms that are most likely to produce the greatest runoff and sediment load in these coastal, maritime climates with relatively low rainfall intensities are likely to occur in

3. Using Cognitive Task Analysis to Develop Scenario-Based Training for House-Clearing Teams

2006-06-22

scenario. ß For an advanced scenario, incorporate several Why Difficults. For a basic-level scenario, use fewer. ß There is a lot of loud music playing. ß...l’urbanisation a eu pour effet d’augmenter le nombre d’opérations militaires en terrain urbain (OMTU), dans lesquelles les unités se trouvent à œuvrer dans des

4. Accountability for Project-Based Collaborative Learning

Jamal, Abu-Hussain; Essawi, Mohammad; Tilchin, Oleg

2014-01-01

One perspective model for the creation of the learning environment and engendering students' thinking development is the Project-Based Collaborative Learning (PBCL) model. This model organizes learning by collaborative performance of various projects. In this paper we describe an approach to enhancing the PBCL model through the creation of…

5. Climate-related uncertainties in projections of the twenty-first century terrestrial carbon budget: off-line model experiments using IPCC greenhouse-gas scenarios and AOGCM climate projections

Ito, Akihiko [Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Yokohama (Japan)

2005-04-01

A terrestrial ecosystem model (Sim-CYCLE) was driven by multiple climate projections to investigate uncertainties in predicting the interactions between global environmental change and the terrestrial carbon cycle. Sim-CYCLE has a spatial resolution of 0.5 , and mechanistically evaluates photosynthetic and respiratory CO{sub 2} exchange. Six scenarios for atmospheric-CO{sub 2} concentrations in the twenty-first century, proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, were considered. For each scenario, climate projections by a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) were used to assess the uncertainty due to socio-economic predictions. Under a single CO{sub 2} scenario, climate projections with seven AOGCMs were used to investigate the uncertainty stemming from uncertainty in the climate simulations. Increases in global photosynthesis and carbon storage differed considerably among scenarios, ranging from 23 to 37% and from 24 to 81 Pg C, respectively. Among the AOGCM projections, increases ranged from 26 to 33% and from 48 to 289 Pg C, respectively. There were regional heterogeneities in both climatic change and carbon budget response, and different carbon-cycle components often responded differently to a given environmental change. Photosynthetic CO{sub 2} fixation was more sensitive to atmospheric CO{sub 2}, whereas soil carbon storage was more sensitive to temperature. Consequently, uncertainties in the CO{sub 2} scenarios and climatic projections may create additional uncertainties in projecting atmospheric-CO{sub 2} concentrations and climates through the interactive feedbacks between the atmosphere and the terrestrial ecosystem. (orig.)

6. Process-based software project management

Goodman, F Alan

2006-01-01

Not connecting software project management (SPM) to actual, real-world development processes can lead to a complete divorcing of SPM to software engineering that can undermine any successful software project. By explaining how a layered process architectural model improves operational efficiency, Process-Based Software Project Management outlines a new method that is more effective than the traditional method when dealing with SPM. With a clear and easy-to-read approach, the book discusses the benefits of an integrated project management-process management connection. The described tight coup

7. Combining exploratory scenarios and participatory backcasting: using an agent-based model in participatory policy design for a multi-functional landscape.

Van Berkel, Derek B; Verburg, Peter H

While the merits of local participatory policy design are widely recognised, limited use is made of model-based scenario results to inform such stakeholder involvement. In this paper we present the findings of a study using an agent based model to help stakeholders consider, discuss and incorporate spatial and temporal processes in a backcasting exercise for rural development. The study is carried out in the Dutch region called the Achterhoek. Region-specific scenarios were constructed based on interviews with local experts. The scenarios are simulated in an agent based model incorporating rural residents and farmer characteristics, the environment and different policy interventions for realistic projection of landscape evolution. Results of the model simulations were presented to stakeholders representing different rural sectors at a workshop. The results indicate that illustration of the spatial configuration of landscape changes is appreciated by stakeholders. Testing stakeholders' solutions by way of model simulations revealed that the effectiveness of local interventions is strongly related to exogenous processes such as market competition and endogenous processes like local willingness to engage in multifunctional activities. The integration of multi-agent modelling and participatory backcasting is effective as it offers a possibility to initiate discussion between experts and stakeholders bringing together different expertise.

8. Effect of Problem Based Learning Scenario on Knowledge of Third Class Students About Childhood Poisoning

Nazan Karaoğlu

2011-08-01

Full Text Available Introduction: It is stated that students cannot carry their knowledge on basic medical sciences that they gained with classical education to clinical classes and clinical practice and problem based learning (PBL can compensate this drawback. It was aimed to evaluate the effect of PBL scenario written on this topic on level of knowledge about childhood poisoning of third class students who completed the most of theoretical pharmacology education.Materials and Method: A questionnaire form prepared by researchers was applied to randomly chosen PBL groups without writing names and on the basis of voluntariness before and after a case of childhood poisoning which was applied as the second PBL scenario in the second midterm of 2009-2010 academic years. Numbers, percentages, chi-square and student’s t-test were used for evaluation of the questionnaire form comprised of demographic data, open-closed ended questions for measuring attitudes and level of knowledge against case of poisoning and statements as making a priority ranking.Results: In the study group, 89 students took part in pre-test and 96 students took part in post-test. In the answers to the list including the substances that are the most common causes of admission according to data of Refik Saydam National Poison Center (e.g. lotion, bath foam, cosmetics, water color and calamine lotions, the substances that the students stated to be toxic in pre-test were answered correctly in the post-test (p<0.05. Number of correct answers increased significantly for knowledge about commonly used drugs in clinical practice like anti-depressants, calcium canal blockers, oral antidiabetics that were marked as non-toxic by the students although they are toxic (p<0.05. While mean knowledge score for these 40 items was 17.52±5.82 in pre-test, it increased to 27.89±8.79 in post-test (p<0.001.Conclusion: Results of this study indicate that PBL scenario applied to the students who learned pharmacology

9. Land use scenarios simulation based on the CLUE-S model of the Lijiang River Basin in Guilin, China

Jin, Qingwen; Liu, Guang; Li, Lei; He, Chengxin; Huang, Yuqing; Yao, Yuefeng

2016-11-01

The relationship between government policy and land use change is very important, which can provide important information for understanding of land use change and for helping in development of sustainable policy. Returning Farmland to Forest Program is simulated by the CLUE-S model. Land use maps in 1993, 2006, 2010 and 2015 in Lijiang River Basin are interpreted based on remote sensing change from 1993 to 2025 under two scenarios (i.e., Natural Growth Scenarios, Government Intervention Scenarios). In the “Natural Growth Scenarios”, the area of construction land and cultivated land are increased, the others are decreased. In the “Government Intervention Scenarios”, the area of construction land, woodland, cultivated land, and water are increased, the others is in declined. The compared results of two scenarios provide a scientific support for the government policy in the Lijiang River Basin.

10. Future waste treatment and energy systems – examples of joint scenarios

Münster, Marie; Finnveden, G.; Wenzel, H.

2013-01-01

Development and use of scenarios for large interdisciplinary projects is a complicated task. This article provides practical examples of how it has been carried out in two projects addressing waste management and energy issues respectively. Based on experiences from the two projects......, recommendations are made for an approach concerning development of scenarios in projects dealing with both waste management and energy issues. Recommendations are given to develop and use overall scenarios for the project and leave room for sub-scenarios in parts of the project. Combining different types...... of scenarios is recommended, too, in order to adapt to the methods and tools of different disciplines, such as developing predictive scenarios with general equilibrium tools and analysing explorative scenarios with energy system analysis tools. Furthermore, as marginals identified in differing future...

11. AI-based (ANN and SVM) statistical downscaling methods for precipitation estimation under climate change scenarios

Mehrvand, Masoud; Baghanam, Aida Hosseini; Razzaghzadeh, Zahra; Nourani, Vahid

2017-04-01

Since statistical downscaling methods are the most largely used models to study hydrologic impact studies under climate change scenarios, nonlinear regression models known as Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based models such as Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) have been used to spatially downscale the precipitation outputs of Global Climate Models (GCMs). The study has been carried out using GCM and station data over GCM grid points located around the Peace-Tampa Bay watershed weather stations. Before downscaling with AI-based model, correlation coefficient values have been computed between a few selected large-scale predictor variables and local scale predictands to select the most effective predictors. The selected predictors are then assessed considering grid location for the site in question. In order to increase AI-based downscaling model accuracy pre-processing has been developed on precipitation time series. In this way, the precipitation data derived from various GCM data analyzed thoroughly to find the highest value of correlation coefficient between GCM-based historical data and station precipitation data. Both GCM and station precipitation time series have been assessed by comparing mean and variances over specific intervals. Results indicated that there is similar trend between GCM and station precipitation data; however station data has non-stationary time series while GCM data does not. Finally AI-based downscaling model have been applied to several GCMs with selected predictors by targeting local precipitation time series as predictand. The consequences of recent step have been used to produce multiple ensembles of downscaled AI-based models.

12. Life cycle assessment of cell phones in Brazil based on two reverse logistics scenarios

Daniela da Gama e Silva Volpe Moreira de Moraes

2014-12-01

Full Text Available This article is a result of a cell phone collection obtained at the Center for Information Technology Renato Archer (CTI under the AMBIENTRONIC Program, an initiative that supports the Brazilian electronic sector in the development of technologies for sustainability. The objective of this article is to assess two reverse logistic scenarios of cell phones using the technique of life-cycle assessment (LCA. The first scenario reflects the current scenario in Brazil, where batteries are recycled in Brazil and the other parts of the phones are outsourced to Europe. The second scenario is a proposal of full treatment in Brazil. The results indicate that the second scenario has a lower potential impact with important reduction of acidification, photochemical oxidation, eutrophication and the use of non-renewable energy. Furthermore, fully implementing reverse logistics in Brazil will enable socioeconomic benefits from the sale of materials and the generation of employment and income.

13. Improvement of nursing students' learning outcomes through scenario-based skills training.

Uysal, Nurcan

2016-08-08

this study analyzed the influence of scenario-based skills training on students' learning skills. the author evaluated the nursing skills laboratory exam papers of 605 sophomores in nursing programs for seven years. The study determined the common mistakes of students and the laboratory work was designed in a scenario-based format. The effectiveness of this method was evaluated by assessing the number of errors the students committed and their achievement scores in laboratory examinations. This study presents the students' common mistakes in intramuscular and subcutaneous injection and their development of intravenous access skills, included in the nursing skills laboratory examination. an analysis of the students' most common mistakes revealed that the most common was not following the principles of asepsis for all three skills (intramuscular, subcutaneous injection, intravenous access) in the first year of the scenario-based training. The students' exam achievement scores increased gradually, except in the fall semester of the academic year 2009-2010. The study found that the scenario-based skills training reduced students' common mistakes in examinations and enhanced their performance on exams. this method received a positive response from both students and instructors. The scenario-based training is available for use in addition to other skills training methods. en este estudio fue analizada la influencia de la capacitación basada en escenarios en las capacidades de aprendizaje de los alumnos. el autor evaluó los textos de exámenes de laboratorio de habilidades de enfermería producidos por 605 alumnos de segundo año en cursos de enfermería durante siete años. El estudio determinó los errores comunes de los alumnos y el trabajo en laboratorio adoptó el formato basado en escenarios. La eficacia de ese método fue evaluada mediante la cantidad de errores que los alumnos cometieron y sus notas de desempeño en exámenes de laboratorio. Este estudio

14. Developing courses with HoloRena, a framework for scenario- and game based e-learning environments

Juracz, Laszlo

2010-01-01

However utilizing rich, interactive solutions can make learning more effective and attractive, scenario- and game-based educational resources on the web are not widely used. Creating these applications is a complex, expensive and challenging process. Development frameworks and authoring tools hardly support reusable components, teamwork and learning management system-independent courseware architecture. In this article we initiate the concept of a low-level, thick-client solution addressing these problems. With some example applications we try to demonstrate, how a framework, based on this concept can be useful for developing scenario- and game-based e-learning environments.

15. A Risk Metric Assessment of Scenario-Based Market Risk Measures for Volatility and Risk Estimation: Evidence from Emerging Markets

Sitima Innocent

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The study evaluated the sensitivity of the Value- at- Risk (VaR and Expected Shortfalls (ES with respect to portfolio allocation in emerging markets with an index portfolio of a developed market. This study utilised different models for VaR and ES techniques using various scenario-based models such as Covariance Methods, Historical Simulation and the GARCH (1, 1 for the predictive ability of these models in both relatively stable market conditions and extreme market conditions. The results showed that Expected Shortfall has less risk tolerance than VaR based on the same scenario-based market risk measures

16. RCPs 情景下长白山区气候变化预估分析%Projection of climate change in Changbai Mountain under RCPs scenarios

于秀晶; 刘玉英; 杜尧东; 韦小丽

2015-01-01

利用全球模式（BCC＿CSM1.1）驱动区域气候模式 RegCM4，模拟分析了 RCP 4.5和 RCP 8.5温室气体排放情景下未来2010—2099年长白山区的气候变化特征。结果表明：RegCM4模式对长白山区气候特征具有较好的模拟能力，未来 RCPs情景下长白山区气温明显升高。与参照时段（1986—2005年）相比，RCP 4.5和 RCP 8.5情景下长白山区的年平均气温在21世纪20年代分别增加了0.7℃和1.0℃，21世纪50年代年平均气温分别增加了1.6℃和2.2℃，21世纪80年代年平均气温分别增加了1.9℃和3.8℃。RCP 4.5和 RCP 8.5情景下，未来长白山区降水均呈略增多的趋势，21世纪20年代降水分别增加了6.5％和2.8％，21世纪50年代降水分别增加了6.6％和7.9％，21世纪80年代降水分别增加了11.0％和6.7％。此外，两种排放情景下未来长白山区日平均气温的统计特征发生改变，偏度系数的负值减小，峰度系数的负值增加，说明未来高温事件发生的可能性增加；同时，中雨以上级别降水的发生频率增加，说明未来极端降水事件发生的可能性增加。%Change trends of temperature and precipitation during 2010-2099 in Changbai Mountain area under RCPs scenarios were analyzed based on projections over China simulated by a RegCM4 (a high resolution regional climate model)that was driven by a GCM (BCC_CSM1.1)in its boundary.The results show that the RegCM4 can well simulate local climate characteristics,judging from comparisons of the simulation with in situ observation. The projected temperature is in a significantly increasing trend in Changbai Mountain area under RCPS scenarios. Compared to that in the reference period (1986-2005 ),annual average temperature will increase by 0.7 ℃and 1.0 ℃ in 2020s,1.6 ℃ and 2.2 ℃ in 2050s,1.9 ℃ and 3.8 ℃ in 2080s under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively.The projected precipitation in most areas of Changbai

17. Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data

Epstein Richard H

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. Methods A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1. Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS data for most scenarios (43 of 45. Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Results Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of

18. Base Flow Model Validation Project

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The program focuses on turbulence modeling enhancements for predicting high-speed rocket base flows. A key component of the effort is the collection of high-fidelity...

19. Knowledge-based planning for construction projects

Zozaya-Gorostiza, C.A.

1988-01-01

This study investigates the development of knowledge-based computer tools that assist an engineer during the construction planning process. A knowledge-based expert-system architecture which provides means for representing and using project planning knowledge is described. This architecture, called PLANEX, has been used for developing three prototype knowledge-based systems for construction, excavation, and manufacturing project planning. One of these prototypes, called CONSTRUCTION PLANEX, assists in the planning for the excavation and structural erection of concrete and steel buildings. This system uses construction planning knowledge to generate project activity networks, recommend appropriate construction technologies, estimate durations and costs and prepare project schedules. CONSTRUCTION PLANEX has been applied in laboratory simulations in three ways: interactively as an intelligent assistant, independently as an automated planner, and as part of an integrated building design environment. Example applications have ranged from two to twenty stories. The development of the PLANEX architecture and the CONSTRUCTION PLANEX system produced contributions in several research areas.

20. Algal-based CO2 Sequestration Technology and Global Scenario of Carbon Credit Market: A Review

Shailendra Kumar Singh

2016-08-01

Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of the global and national scenario of Carbon credit. This paper will also discuss the advantages of the algae-based carbon capture technology in growing carbon credit market. Carbon Dioxide (CO2, the most important greenhouse gas produced by combustion of fuels, has become a cause of global panic as its concentration in the Earth’s atmosphere has been rising alarmingly. However, it is now turning into a product that helps people, countries, consultants, traders, corporations and even farmers earn billion of rupees. A carbon credit is a generic term for any tradable certificate or permit representing the right to emit one tone of CO2 or CO2 equivalent (CO2-e. Businesses can exchange, buy or sell carbon credits in the international markets at the prevailing market price. India and China are likely to emerge as biggest seller and Europe is going to be biggest buyers of carbon credits. Using algae for reduction the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is known as algae-based carbon capture technology. This new technology has attracted companies that need inexpensive CO2 sequestration solutions. Algae farming emerge as the best CO2 sequestration technique in comparison with other methods.

1. Economic and environmental evaluation of three goal-vision based scenarios for organic dairy farming in Denmark.

Oudshoorn, F.W.; Sorensen, C.A.G.; Boer, de I.J.M.

2011-01-01

The objective of this study was to explore the sustainability of future organic dairy farming systems in Denmark, by evaluating the economic and environmental consequences of three scenarios at the farm level based on different visions of future sustainability leading to different farm-based goals.

2. Selection of an appropriate wastewater treatment technology: a scenario-based multiple-attribute decision-making approach.

Kalbar, Pradip P; Karmakar, Subhankar; Asolekar, Shyam R

2012-12-30

Many technological alternatives for wastewater treatment are available, ranging from advanced technologies to conventional treatment options. It is difficult to select the most appropriate technology from among a set of available alternatives to treat wastewater at a particular location. Many factors, such as capital costs, operation and maintenance costs and land requirement, are involved in the decision-making process. Sustainability criteria must also be incorporated into the decision-making process such that appropriate technologies are selected for developing economies such as that of India. A scenario-based multiple-attribute decision-making (MADM) methodology has been developed and applied to the selection of wastewater treatment alternative. The four most commonly used wastewater treatment technologies for treatment of municipal wastewater in India are ranked for various scenarios. Six scenarios are developed that capture the regional and local societal priorities of urban, suburban and rural areas and translate them into the mathematical algorithm of the MADM methodology. The articulated scenarios depict the most commonly encountered decision-making situations in addressing technology selection for wastewater treatment in India. A widely used compensatory MADM technique, TOPSIS, has been selected to rank the alternatives. Seven criteria with twelve indicators are formulated to evaluate the alternatives. Different weight matrices are used for each scenario, depending on the priorities of the scenario. This study shows that it is difficult to select the most appropriate wastewater treatment alternative under the "no scenario" condition (equal weights given to each attribute), and the decision-making methodology presented in this paper effectively identifies the most appropriate wastewater treatment alternative for each of the scenarios.

3. The NorWeST project: Crowd-sourcing a big data stream temperature database and high-resolution climate scenarios for western rivers and streams

Isaak, D.; Wenger, S. J.; Peterson, E.; Ver Hoef, J.; Luce, C.; Hostetler, S.

2015-12-01

Climate change is warming streams across the western U.S. and threatens billions of dollars of investments made to conserve valuable cold-water species like trout and salmon. Efficient threat response requires prioritization of limited conservation resources and coordinated interagency efforts guided by accurate information about climate at scales relevant to the distributions of species across landscapes. To provide that information, the NorWeST project was initiated in 2011 to aggregate stream temperature data from all available sources and create high-resolution climate scenarios. The database has since grown into the largest of its kind globally, and now consists of >60,000,000 hourly temperature recordings at >20,000 unique stream sites that were contributed by 100s of professionals working for >95 state, federal, tribal, municipal, county, and private resource agencies. This poster shows a high-resolution (1-kilometer) summer temperature scenario created with these data and mapped to 800,000 kilometers of network across eight western states (ID, WA, OR, MT, WY, UT, NV, CA). The geospatial data associated with this climate scenario and thirty others developed in this project are distributed in user-friendly digital formats through the NorWeST website (http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/boise/AWAE/projects/NorWeST.shtml). The accuracy, utility, and convenience of NorWeST data products has led to their rapid adoption and use by the management and research communities for conservation planning, inter-agency coordination of monitoring networks, and new research on stream temperatures and thermal ecology. A project of this scope and utility was possible only through crowd-sourcing techniques, which have also served to engage data contributors in the process of science creation while strengthening the social networks needed for effective conservation.

4. Strategic bidding in electricity markets: An agent-based simulator with game theory for scenario analysis

Pinto, Tiago; Praca, Isabel; Morais, Hugo

2013-01-01

the behavior that better fits their objectives. This model includes forecasts of competitor players’ actions, to build models of their behavior, in order to define the most probable expected scenarios. Once the scenarios are defined, game theory is applied to support the choice of the ac-tion to be performed......Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, with specific charac-teristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting in a dynamic scene. Game-theory has been widely used to sup-port decisions in competitive environments; therefore its...... application in electricity markets can prove to be a high potential tool. This paper proposes a new scenario analysis algorithm, which includes the application of game-theory, to evaluate and preview different scenarios and provide players with the ability to strategically react in order to exhibit...

5. A scenario-based clean gasoline production strategy for China National Petroleum Corporation

Liu Haiyan; Yu Jianning; Fan Yu; Shi Gang; Bao Xiaojun

2008-01-01

Facing increasingly strict environmental regulations on transportation fuels,China National Petroleum Corp.(CNPC),the second largest supplier of petroleum products in China,needs to upgrade its transportation fuels.Using the scenario-based analysis method,this paper analyzes how the emission related properties,including antiknock index,and sulfur,olefin,benzene and aromatics contents of gasoline produced by CNPC,vary with the change in the configuration of gasoline production units in the future 5-15 years.The results showed that for CNPC to upgrade its gasoline,the share of fluid catalytic cracking(FCC)naphtha must be reduced,but just increasing reformate or alkylate and isomerate will result in excessive increase in benzene and aromatics contents or a great loss of gasoline octane number.Therefore,CNPC should suitably control the capacity of its FCC units and increase the capacity of reformer,alkylation and isomerization units.Most importantly,CNPC should dramatically expand the capacity of its hydrotreating or non-hydrotreating gasoline upgrading units to decrease the olefin and sulfur contents in FCC gasoline that takes a dominant share of about 80% in the gasoline pool of China.

6. Scenario-based prediction of Li-ion batteries fire-induced toxicity

Lecocq, Amandine; Eshetu, Gebrekidan Gebresilassie; Grugeon, Sylvie; Martin, Nelly; Laruelle, Stephane; Marlair, Guy

2016-06-01

The development of high energy Li-ion batteries with improved durability and increased safety mostly relies on the use of newly developed electrolytes. A detailed appraisal of fire-induced thermal and chemical threats on LiPF6- and LiFSI-based electrolytes by means of the so-called "fire propagation apparatus" had highlighted that the salt anion was responsible for the emission of a non negligible content of irritant gas as HF (PF6-) or HF and SO2 (FSI-). A more thorough comparative investigation of the toxicity threat in the case of larger-size 0.4 kWh Li-ion modules was thus undertaken. A modeling approach that consists in extrapolating the experimental data obtained from 1.3Ah LiFePO4/graphite pouch cells under fire conditions and in using the state-of-the-art fire safety international standards for the evaluation of fire toxicity was applied under two different real-scale simulating scenarios. The obtained results reveal that critical thresholds are highly dependent on the nature of the salt, LiPF6 or LiFSI, and on the cells state of charge. Hence, this approach can help define appropriate fire safety engineering measures for a given technology (different chemistry) or application (fully charged backup batteries or batteries subjected to deep discharge).

7. Quantifying the effects of oil shocks on long-term public debt: A review of empirical data and a scenario analysis of future projections

McMichael, Jillian Taylor

Various authors have shown that each oil shock in the past 40 years has had statistically significant impacts on subsequent macroeconomic activity in the United States. Through these economic effects, oil shocks affect Federal revenues and expenditures and hence public debt. Published Federal budget scenarios do not currently reflect these impacts of oil shocks. I synthesize, in this paper, literature quantifying the impact of oil price increases on GDP growth and use that information to modify current long-term Federal budget models to present scenarios of how oil shocks are likely to affect long-term Federal debt. I argue that modeling the impact of oil price increases on long-term public debt could inform public policies, particularly those relating to Federal investments in energy conservation. Key Words: crude oil, oil shock, oil price spike, oil shock, Federal debt, debt projections, Congressional Budget Office

8. Real-time determination of the worst tsunami scenario based on Earthquake Early Warning

Furuya, Takashi; Koshimura, Shunichi; Hino, Ryota; Ohta, Yusaku; Inoue, Takuya

2016-04-01

In recent years, real-time tsunami inundation forecasting has been developed with the advances of dense seismic monitoring, GPS Earth observation, offshore tsunami observation networks, and high-performance computing infrastructure (Koshimura et al., 2014). Several uncertainties are involved in tsunami inundation modeling and it is believed that tsunami generation model is one of the great uncertain sources. Uncertain tsunami source model has risk to underestimate tsunami height, extent of inundation zone, and damage. Tsunami source inversion using observed seismic, geodetic and tsunami data is the most effective to avoid underestimation of tsunami, but needs to expect more time to acquire the observed data and this limitation makes difficult to terminate real-time tsunami inundation forecasting within sufficient time. Not waiting for the precise tsunami observation information, but from disaster management point of view, we aim to determine the worst tsunami source scenario, for the use of real-time tsunami inundation forecasting and mapping, using the seismic information of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) that can be obtained immediately after the event triggered. After an earthquake occurs, JMA's EEW estimates magnitude and hypocenter. With the constraints of earthquake magnitude, hypocenter and scaling law, we determine possible multi tsunami source scenarios and start searching the worst one by the superposition of pre-computed tsunami Green's functions, i.e. time series of tsunami height at offshore points corresponding to 2-dimensional Gaussian unit source, e.g. Tsushima et al., 2014. Scenario analysis of our method consists of following 2 steps. (1) Searching the worst scenario range by calculating 90 scenarios with various strike and fault-position. From maximum tsunami height of 90 scenarios, we determine a narrower strike range which causes high tsunami height in the area of concern. (2) Calculating 900 scenarios that have different strike, dip, length

9. Deliverable D21 (project TUCAN3G). Socio-economic scenarios, technical specifications and architecture for the proof of concept

García Rey, Ana; Prieto Egido, Ignacio; Sánchez, Ernesto; Muñoz Medina, Olga; Vidal Manzano, José; Agustín de Dios, Adrián; Pascual Iserte, Antonio; Simó Reigadas, Javier; Paco Fernández, Juan; Castillo Molina, Yury Yohana; Ramírez, Gustavo; Tupayachi Calderón, Omar

2013-01-01

TUCAN3G aims to develop solutions to provide 3G services in isolated rural areas of developing countries. In order to do so, this document starts by analysing the reference scenarios where TUCAN3G solutions could be applied, explaining its general situation worldwide, the Latin America case, and its specific reality in Colombia and Peru, from the socioeconomic point of view. The technologies that TUCAN3G will integrate for this purpose are also described, providing an insight of the requireme...

10. Scenario Simulation-Based Assessment of Trip Difficulty for Urban Residents under Rainstorm Waterlogging

Yingyue Sun

2012-05-01

Full Text Available In this study, an experiment was performed to assess the trip difficulty for urban residents of different age groups walking in various depths of water, and the data were corroborated with the real urban rainstorm waterlogging scenarios in downtown (Daoli district Ha-Erbin (China. Mathematical models of urban rainstorm waterlogging were constructed using scenario simulation methods, aided by the GIS spatial analysis technology and hydrodynamic analysis of the waterway systems in the study area. Then these models were used to evaluate the impact of waterlogging on the safety of residents walking in the affected area. Results are summarized as: (1 for an urban rainstorm waterlogging scenario reoccurring once every 10 years, three grid regions would have waterlogging above 0.5 m moving at a velocity of 1.5 m/s. Under this scenario, waterlogging would accumulate on traffic roads only in small areas, affecting the safety and mobility of residents walking in the neighborhood; (2 for an urban rainstorm waterlogging scenario reoccurring once every 20 years, 13 grids experienced the same waterlogging situation affecting a larger area of the city; (3 for an urban rainstorm waterlogging scenario reoccurring once every 50 years, 86 grid regions were affected (waterlogging above 0.5 m moving at 1.5 m/s, and those areas would become impassable for residents.

11. 基于不同情景模拟的农村饮水工程运行水价分析与对策研究%Research and Analysis of Water Price for the Operation and Management in Rural Drinking Water Projects Based on Different Simulating Scenario

颜成贵; 陈海雄

2013-01-01

The water collection fee system of rural drinking water projects is not yet fully established, has poor economic benefit, and hard to maintain. Economic benefit evaluation was carried out by different simulating scenes of operation and management in rural drinking water projects. Given quantitative water price scheme under different conditions,and the proposals were put forward, to establish the different target of management according to different rural drinking water projects.%农村饮水工程水费收缴制度尚未完全建立,工程效益差、运行难以维持.模拟农村饮水工程不同运行情景进行效益评价,由此得出定量化的水价方案,并建议制定农村饮水工程分类水费目标.

12. A comparison between the example reference biosphere model ERB 2B and a process-based model: simulation of a natural release scenario.

Almahayni, T

2014-12-01

The BIOMASS methodology was developed with the objective of constructing defensible assessment biospheres for assessing potential radiological impacts of radioactive waste repositories. To this end, a set of Example Reference Biospheres were developed to demonstrate the use of the methodology and to provide an international point of reference. In this paper, the performance of the Example Reference Biosphere model ERB 2B associated with the natural release scenario, discharge of contaminated groundwater to the surface environment, was evaluated by comparing its long-term projections of radionuclide dynamics and distribution in a soil-plant system to those of a process-based, transient advection-dispersion model (AD). The models were parametrised with data characteristic of a typical rainfed winter wheat crop grown on a sandy loam soil under temperate climate conditions. Three safety-relevant radionuclides, (99)Tc, (129)I and (237)Np with different degree of sorption were selected for the study. Although the models were driven by the same hydraulic (soil moisture content and water fluxes) and radiological (Kds) input data, their projections were remarkably different. On one hand, both models were able to capture short and long-term variation in activity concentration in the subsoil compartment. On the other hand, the Reference Biosphere model did not project any radionuclide accumulation in the topsoil and crop compartments. This behaviour would underestimate the radiological exposure under natural release scenarios. The results highlight the potential role deep roots play in soil-to-plant transfer under a natural release scenario where radionuclides are released into the subsoil. When considering the relative activity and root depth profiles within the soil column, much of the radioactivity was taken up into the crop from the subsoil compartment. Further improvements were suggested to address the limitations of the Reference Biosphere model presented in this paper.

13. Scenario-Based Analysis on Water Resources Implication of Coal Power in Western China

Jiahai Yuan

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Currently, 58% of coal-fired power generation capacity is located in eastern China, where the demand for electricity is strong. Serious air pollution in China, in eastern regions in particular, has compelled the Chinese government to impose a ban on the new construction of pulverized coal power plants in eastern regions. Meanwhile, rapid economic growth is thirsty for electric power supply. As a response, China planned to build large-scale coal power bases in six western provinces, including Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Xinjiang, Ningxia and Gansu. In this paper, the water resource implication of the coal power base planning is addressed. We find that, in a business-as-usual (BAU scenario, water consumption for coal power generation in these six provinces will increase from 1130 million m3 in 2012 to 2085 million m3 in 2020, experiencing nearly a double growth. Such a surge will exert great pressure on water supply and lead to serious water crisis in these already water-starved regions. A strong implication is that the Chinese Government must add water resource constraint as a critical point in its overall sustainable development plan, in addition to energy supply and environment protection. An integrated energy-water resource plan with regionalized environmental carrying capacity as constraints should be developed to settle this puzzle. Several measures are proposed to cope with it, including downsizing coal power in western regions, raising the technical threshold of new coal power plants and implementing retrofitting to the inefficient cooling system, and reengineering the generation process to waterless or recycled means.

14. Framework for Probabilistic Projections of Energy-Relevant Streamflow Indicators under Climate Change Scenarios for the U.S.

Wagener, Thorsten [Univ. of Bristol (United Kingdom); Mann, Michael [Pennsylvania State Univ., State College, PA (United States); Crane, Robert [Pennsylvania State Univ., State College, PA (United States)

2014-04-29

This project focuses on uncertainty in streamflow forecasting under climate change conditions. The objective is to develop easy to use methodologies that can be applied across a range of river basins to estimate changes in water availability for realistic projections of climate change. There are three major components to the project: Empirical downscaling of regional climate change projections from a range of Global Climate Models; Developing a methodology to use present day information on the climate controls on the parameterizations in streamflow models to adjust the parameterizations under future climate conditions (a trading-space-for-time approach); and Demonstrating a bottom-up approach to establishing streamflow vulnerabilities to climate change. The results reinforce the need for downscaling of climate data for regional applications, and further demonstrates the challenges of using raw GCM data to make local projections. In addition, it reinforces the need to make projections across a range of global climate models. The project demonstrates the potential for improving streamflow forecasts by using model parameters that are adjusted for future climate conditions, but suggests that even with improved streamflow models and reduced climate uncertainty through the use of downscaled data, there is still large uncertainty is the streamflow projections. The most useful output from the project is the bottom-up vulnerability driven approach to examining possible climate and land use change impacts on streamflow. Here, we demonstrate an inexpensive and easy to apply methodology that uses Classification and Regression Trees (CART) to define the climate and environmental parameters space that can produce vulnerabilities in the system, and then feeds in the downscaled projections to determine the probability top transitioning to a vulnerable sate. Vulnerabilities, in this case, are defined by the end user.

15. Can scenario-planning support community-based natural resource management? Experiences from three countries in Latin America

Kerry A. Waylen

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Community-based natural resource management (CBNRM is a concept critical to managing social-ecological systems but whose implementation needs strengthening. Scenario planning is one approach that may offer benefits relevant to CBNRM but whose potential is not yet well understood. Therefore, we designed, trialed, and evaluated a scenario-planning method intended to support CBNRM in three cases, located in Colombia, Mexico, and Argentina. Implementing scenario planning was judged as worthwhile in all three cases, although aspects of it were challenging to facilitate. The benefits generated were relevant to strengthening CBNRM: encouraging the participation of local people and using their knowledge, enhanced consideration of and adaptation to future change, and supporting the development of systems thinking. Tracing exactly when and how these benefits arose was challenging, but two elements of the method seemed particularly useful. First, using a systematic approach to discuss how drivers of change may affect local social-ecological systems helped to foster systems thinking and identify connections between issues. Second, explicitly focusing on how to use and respond to scenarios helped identify specific practical activities, or "response options," that would support CBNRM despite the pressures of future change. Discussions about response options also highlighted the need for support by other actors, e.g., policy groups: this raised the question of when and how other actors and other sources of knowledge should be involved in scenario planning, so as to encourage their buy-in to actions identified by the process. We suggest that other CBNRM initiatives may benefit from adapting and applying scenario planning. However, these initiatives should be carefully monitored because further research is required to understand how and when scenario-planning methods may produce benefits, as well as their strengths and weaknesses versus other methods.

16. Sustainable Systems Analysis of Production and Transportation Scenarios for Conventional and Bio-based Energy Commodities

Doran, E. M.; Golden, J. S.; Nowacek, D. P.

2013-12-01

International commerce places unique pressures on the sustainability of water resources and marine environments. System impacts include noise, emissions, and chemical and biological pollutants like introduction of invasive species into key ecosystems. At the same time, maritime trade also enables the sustainability ambition of intragenerational equity in the economy through the global circulation of commodities and manufactured goods, including agricultural, energy and mining resources (UN Trade and Development Board 2013). This paper presents a framework to guide the analysis of the multiple dimensions of the sustainable commerce-ocean nexus. As a demonstration case, we explore the social, economic and environmental aspects of the nexus framework using scenarios for the production and transportation of conventional and bio-based energy commodities. Using coupled LCA and GIS methodologies, we are able to orient the findings spatially for additional insight. Previous work on the sustainable use of marine resources has focused on distinct aspects of the maritime environment. The framework presented here, integrates the anthropogenic use, governance and impacts on the marine and coastal environments with the natural components of the system. A similar framework has been highly effective in progressing the study of land-change science (Turner et al 2007), however modification is required for the unique context of the marine environment. This framework will enable better research integration and planning for sustainability objectives including mitigation and adaptation to climate change, sea level rise, reduced dependence on fossil fuels, protection of critical marine habitat and species, and better management of the ocean as an emerging resource base for the production and transport of commodities and energy across the globe. The framework can also be adapted for vulnerability analysis, resilience studies and to evaluate the trends in production, consumption and

17. Uncertainty in flow and sediment projections due to future climate scenarios for the 3S Rivers in the Mekong Basin

Shrestha, Bikesh; Cochrane, Thomas A.; Caruso, Brian S.; Arias, Mauricio E.; Piman, Thanapon

2016-09-01

Reliable projections of discharge and sediment are essential for future water and sediment management plans under climate change, but these are subject to numerous uncertainties. This study assessed the uncertainty in flow and sediment projections using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) associated with three Global Climate Models (GCMs), three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and three model parameter (MP) sets for the 3S Rivers in the Mekong River Basin. The uncertainty was analyzed for the short term future (2021-2040 or 2030s) and long term future (2051-2070 or 2060s) time horizons. Results show that dominant sources of uncertainty in flow and sediment constituents vary spatially across the 3S basin. For peak flow, peak sediment, and wet seasonal flows projection, the greatest uncertainty sources also vary with time horizon. For 95% low flows and for seasonal and annual flow projections, GCM and MP were the major sources of uncertainty, whereas RCPs had less of an effect. The uncertainty due to RCPs is large for annual sediment load projections. While model parameterization is the major source of uncertainty in the short term (2030s), GCMs and RCPs are the major contributors to uncertainty in flow and sediment projections in the longer term (2060s). Overall, the uncertainty in sediment load projections is larger than the uncertainty in flow projections. In general, our results suggest the need to investigate the major contributing sources of uncertainty in large basins temporally and at different scales, as this can have major consequences for water and sediment management decisions. Further, since model parameterization uncertainty can play a significant role for flow and sediment projections, there is a need to incorporate hydrological model parameter uncertainty in climate change studies and efforts to reduce the parameter uncertainty as much as possible should be considered through a careful calibration and validation process.

18. Dungeness Crab Dredging Entrainment Studies in the Lower Columbia River, 2002 – 2004: Loss Projections, Salinity Model, and Scenario Analysis

Pearson, Walter H.; Williams, Greg D.; Skalski, John R.

2005-01-01

Dungeness crab studies conducted in 2002 for the Portland District of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) constituted a major step forward in quantifying crab entrainment through statistical projections of adult equivalent loss (AEL) and loss to the fishery (LF) from proposed construction and maintenance dredging in the Columbia River navigation channel (Pearson et al. 2002, 2003). These studies also examined the influence of bottom salinity on crab abundance and entrainment rates. Additional sampling was conducted in 2004 to tighten loss projections, further develop the crab salinity model, and apply the model to assess correlations of entrainment rates and projected losses with seasonal salinity changes.

19. Exploring Persona-Scenarios - Using Storytelling to Create Design Ideas

2010-01-01

International audience; This paper explores the persona-scenario method by investigating how the method can support project participants in generating shared understandings and design ideas. As persona-scenarios are stories we draw on narrative theory to define what a persona-scenario is and which narrative elements it should consist of. Based on an empirical study a key finding is that despite our inherent human ability to construct, tell, and interpret stories it is not easy to write and pr...

20. Projection of global climate change scenarios onto the Hawaiian Islands: Estimating the characteristics of rainfall for the 21st century

US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This project will build on existing experience with statistical downscaling methods to derive comprehensive estimates of the future rainfall changes over the...

1. The implications of climate change scenario selection for future streamflow projection in the Upper Colorado River Basin

B. L. Harding; A. W. Wood; Prairie, J. R.

2012-01-01

The impact of projected 21st century climate conditions on streamflow in the Upper Colorado River Basin was estimated using a multi-model ensemble approach wherein the downscaled outputs of 112 future climate projections from 16 global climate models (GCMs) were used to drive a macroscale hydrology model. By the middle of the century, the impacts on streamflow range, over the entire ensemble, from a decrease of approximately 30% to an increase of approximately the same magnitude. Although pri...

2. Photodegradation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soils under a climate change base scenario.

Marquès, Montse; Mari, Montse; Audí-Miró, Carme; Sierra, Jordi; Soler, Albert; Nadal, Martí; Domingo, José L

2016-04-01

The photodegradation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in two typical Mediterranean soils, either coarse- or fine-textured, was here investigated. Soil samples, spiked with the 16 US EPA priority PAHs, were incubated in a climate chamber at stable conditions of temperature (20 °C) and light (9.6 W m(-2)) for 28 days, simulating a climate change base scenario. PAH concentrations in soils were analyzed throughout the experiment, and correlated with data obtained by means of Microtox(®) ecotoxicity test. Photodegradation was found to be dependent on exposure time, molecular weight of each hydrocarbon, and soil texture. Fine-textured soil was able to enhance sorption, being PAHs more photodegraded than in coarse-textured soil. According to the EC50 values reported by Microtox(®), a higher detoxification was observed in fine-textured soil, being correlated with the outcomes of the analytical study. Significant photodegradation rates were detected for a number of PAHs, namely phenanthrene, anthracene, benzo(a)pyrene, and indeno(123-cd)pyrene. Benzo(a)pyrene, commonly used as an indicator for PAH pollution, was completely removed after 7 days of light exposure. In addition to the PAH chemical analysis and the ecotoxicity tests, a hydrogen isotope analysis of benzo(a)pyrene was also carried out. The degradation of this specific compound was associated to a high enrichment in (2)H, obtaining a maximum δ(2)H isotopic shift of +232‰. This strong isotopic effect observed in benzo(a)pyrene suggests that compound-specific isotope analysis (CSIA) may be a powerful tool to monitor in situ degradation of PAHs. Moreover, hydrogen isotopes of benzo(a)pyrene evidenced a degradation process of unknown origin occurring in the darkness.

3. A Case Study on Developing an Effective Information Based Healthcare Services - India's Scenario

A. Pathanjali Sastri

2013-02-01

Full Text Available The real test of technological development is to ensure whether it reaches people and the most important task is to produce, manage and deliver relevant information systems appropriately within India. Therefore technology needs to be acquired and adapted for it to be appropriately developed. A country like India needs to adapt and develop information systems based on their own needs and structures, using their own methods and practices. When it comes to eGovernance projects, better cooperation is the need of the day both from public as well as private players [1]. The Indian government is taking greater cognizance of the benefits of technology and some e-Gov projects have already been initiated and deployed in few states of our country [1]. However, despite an improved Information Communication Technology (ICT in our country thanks to the efforts of our government, there are still problems which continue to hamper the use of information and ICT in domain of healthcare in India [2]. This paper discusses the current levels of IT and quality in health care in our country and how Information Technology (IT might be helpful in future.

4. Projected Flood Risks in China based on CMIP5

Xu, Ying

2016-04-01

Based on the simulations from 22 CMIP5 models and in combination with data on population, GDP, arable land, and terrain elevation, the spatial distributions of the flood risk levels are calculated and analyzed under RCP8.5 for the baseline period (1986-2005), the near term future period (2016-2035), the middle term future period (2046-2065), and the long term future period (2080-2099). (1) Areas with higher flood hazard risk levels in the future are concentrated in southeastern China, and the areas with the risk level III continue to expand. The major changes in flood hazard risks will occur in the middle and long term future. (2) In future, the areas of high vulnerability to flood hazards will be located in China's eastern region. In the middle and late 21st century, the extent of the high vulnerability area will expand eastward and its intensity will gradually increase. The highest vulnerability values are found in the provinces of Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Henan, Anhui, Shandong, Shanghai, Jiangsu, and in parts of the Pearl River Delta. Furthermore, the major cities in northeast China, as well as Wuhan, Changsha and Nanchang are highly vulnerable. (3) The regions with high flood risk levels will be located in eastern China, in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River and stretching northward to Beijing and Tianjin. High-risk flood areas are also occurring in major cities in Northeast China, in some parts of Shaanxi and Shanxi, and in some coastal areas in Southeast China. (4) Compared to the baseline period, the high flood risks will increase on a regional level towards the end of the 21st century, although the areas of flood hazards show little variation. In this paper, the projected future flood risks for different periods were analyzed under the RCP8.5 emission scenarios. By comparing the results with the simulations under the RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5 scenarios, both scenarios show no differences in the spatial distribution, but in the intensity of flood

5. Learning Through Scenario Planning

Balarezo, Jose

This project investigates the uses and effects of scenario planning in companies operating in highly uncertain and dynamic environments. Whereas previous research on scenario planning has fallen short of providing sufficient evidence of its mechanisms and effects on individual or organizational...... level variables, this research corrects this void by investigating the dynamics of organizational learning through the lenses of a corporate scenario planning process. This enhances our scientific understanding of the role that scenario planning might play in the context of organizational learning...... and counterintuitive ways in which an organization uses scenario planning in balancing the tension between exploration and exploitation. Moreover, this research proposes two novel mechanisms designed to enhance learning flows. At the core of this dissertation are four papers which in combination solidify our...

6. Viewls - Biomass production potentials in Central and Eastern Europe under different scenarios. Final report of WP3 of the VIEWLS project, funded by DG-Tren

Dam, J. van; Faaij, A.; Lewandowski, I. (and others)

2006-01-15

The EU has set ambitious targets to increase the use of Renewable Energy Sources from which a large part has to come from biomass To meet these targets, a large amount of biomass resources is needed which requires large areas of land in the EU. This article discusses a methodology and results for a regional biomass potential assessment in Central and Eastern European Accession countries (CEEC). The biomass potential assessment is implemented for a defined set of scenarios. The scenarios are based on the main drivers in Europe relevant for agriculture and land use change, i.e. World Trade Negotiations or Common Agricultural Policy. The methodology for the biomass potential assessment is based on land use changes over time. A certain amount of land is needed to meet the required production for food (derived from agricultural crops and livestock) and wood products. The surplus available land can possibly be used for biomass production. Results of the biomass potential assessment are available on a Nuts-3 region level in the CEEC for different scenarios. As the concept of large-scale biomass production is only feasible when production is profitable for the stakeholders involved, price and cost-relations are included in the assessment. Final deliverable are cost-supply curves from different sources (energy crops, residues) and scenarios for the CEEC. (au)

7. A High Resolution Technology-based Emissions Inventory for Nepal: Present and Future Scenario

Sadavarte, P.; Das, B.; Rupakheti, M.; Byanju, R.; Bhave, P.

2016-12-01

understand impacts of air pollution on health and climate in Kathmandu Valley and Nepal. Future emissions are being developed based on different possible growth scenarios and policy interventions to mitigate emissions.

8. Construct and face validity of the educational computer-based environment (ECE) assessment scenarios for basic endoneurosurgery skills.

Cagiltay, Nergiz Ercil; Ozcelik, Erol; Sengul, Gokhan; Berker, Mustafa

2017-04-07

In neurosurgery education, there is a paradigm shift from time-based training to criterion-based model for which competency and assessment becomes very critical. Even virtual reality simulators provide alternatives to improve education and assessment in neurosurgery programs and allow for several objective assessment measures, there are not many tools for assessing the overall performance of trainees. This study aims to develop and validate a tool for assessing the overall performance of participants in a simulation-based endoneurosurgery training environment. A training program was developed in two levels: endoscopy practice and beginning surgical practice based on four scenarios. Then, three experiments were conducted with three corresponding groups of participants (Experiment 1, 45 (32 beginners, 13 experienced), Experiment 2, 53 (40 beginners, 13 experienced), and Experiment 3, 26 (14 novices, 12 intermediate) participants). The results analyzed to understand the common factors among the performance measurements of these experiments. Then, a factor capable of assessing the overall skill levels of surgical residents was extracted. Afterwards, the proposed measure was tested to estimate the experience levels of the participants. Finally, the level of realism of these educational scenarios was assessed. The factor formed by time, distance, and accuracy on simulated tasks provided an overall performance indicator. The prediction correctness was very high for the beginners than the one for experienced surgeons in Experiments 1 and 2. When non-dominant hand is used in a surgical procedure-based scenario, skill levels of surgeons can be better predicted. The results indicate that the scenarios in Experiments 1 and 2 can be used as an assessment tool for the beginners, and scenario-2 in Experiment 3 can be used as an assessment tool for intermediate and novice levels. It can be concluded that forming the balance between perceived action capacities and skills is

9. Thermal and Hydrological Response of Rock Glaciers to Climate Change: A Scenario Based Simulation Study

Apaloo, Jotham; Brenning, Alexander; Gruber, Stephan

2014-05-01

Rock glaciers are ice-debris landforms characterized by creeping ice-rich permafrost. Recognition of their hydrological significance is increasing and is of particular relevance to the dry Andes, where rock glaciers cover greater area than glaciers. However, additional knowledge and research approaches pertaining to the seasonal hydrological contributions and climatic sensitivities of rock glaciers are necessary for improved water resource planning in many regions around the world. This work explores the utility of the energy and water balance model GEOtop to quantify the thermal and hydrological response of rock glaciers to climate scenarios. Weather data was generated with the intermediate-stochastic weather generator AWE-GEN for a site in the Southeast Swiss Alps, which marked a novel approach in cryospheric studies. Weather data for a reference scenario was generated which approximates conditions during the observation period (1985-2012). AWE-GEN produced time series of weather data for the reference scenario with statistical properties of precipitation in close agreement with observations, but air temperature showed substantial negative biases in summer months, which are attributed to difficulties in modeling local climatic characteristics. To examine the influence of climate change, data for eight climate change scenarios were generated by specifying change factors for mean monthly air temperature. The thermal and hydrological evolution of rock glacier soils were simulated for 50 years under the climatic forcing of the reference scenario followed by 50 years under each climate change scenario. Mean annual ground surface temperature (MAGST), active layer depth, permafrost total ice content, and the potential summer runoff contribution were quantified and compared before and after the onset of the climate change conditions. Air temperature increases in the climate change scenarios were amplified in MAGST. Stable rock glacier points were resistant to changes in

10. Spatial, temporal and frequency based climate change assessment in Columbia River Basin using multi downscaled-scenarios

2016-07-01

Uncertainties in climate modelling are well documented in literature. Global Climate Models (GCMs) are often used to downscale the climatic parameters on a regional scale. In the present work, we have analyzed the changes in precipitation and temperature for future scenario period of 2070-2099 with respect to historical period of 1970-2000 from statistically downscaled GCM projections in Columbia River Basin (CRB). Analysis is performed using two different statistically downscaled climate projections (with ten GCMs downscaled products each, for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, from CMIP5 dataset) namely, those from the Bias Correction and Spatial Downscaling (BCSD) technique generated at Portland State University and from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) technique, generated at University of Idaho, totaling to 40 different scenarios. The two datasets for BCSD and MACA are downscaled from observed data for both scenarios projections i.e. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Analysis is performed using spatial change (yearly scale), temporal change (monthly scale), percentile change (seasonal scale), quantile change (yearly scale), and wavelet analysis (yearly scale) in the future period from the historical period, respectively, at a scale of 1/16th of degree for entire CRB region. Results have indicated in varied degree of spatial change pattern for the entire Columbia River Basin, especially western part of the basin. At temporal scales, winter precipitation has higher variability than summer and vice versa for temperature. Most of the models have indicated considerate positive change in quantiles and percentiles for both precipitation and temperature. Wavelet analysis provided insights into possible explanation to changes in precipitation.

11. A change navigation-based, scenario planning process within a developing world context from an Afro-centric leadership perspective

Chris A. Geldenhuys

2011-02-01

Full Text Available Orientation: In the hyper turbulent context faced currently by organisations, more flexible strategic planning approaches, such as scenario planning which take into account a more comprehensive range of possible futures for an organisation, will position organisations better than conventional forecast and estimates that depend only on a single, linearly extrapolated, strategic response.Research purpose: This study aimed to investigate how scenario-based planning (a strictly cognitive management tool can be combined with organisational change navigation (a practice addressing the emotionality of change and how this integrated process should be aligned with the prerequisites imposed by a developing country context and an Afro-centric leadership perspective in order to make the process more context relevant and aligned.Motivation for the study: The integration of organisational change navigation with conventional scenario based planning, as well as the incorporation of the perquisites of a developing countries and an Afro-centric leadership perspective, will give organisations a more robust, holistic strategic management tool that will add significantly more value within a rapidly, radically and unpredictably changing world.Research design, approach and method: The adopted research approach comprised a combination of the sourcing of the latest thinking in the literature (the ‘theory’ as well as the views of seasoned practitioners of scenario planning (the ‘practice’ through an iterative research process, moving between theory and practice, back to practice and finally returning to theory in order to arrive at a validated expanded and enhanced scenario-based planning process which is both theory and practice ‘proof’.Main findings: A management tool incorporating the change navigation and the unique features of developing countries and Afro-centric leadership was formulated and empirically validated. This management tool is referred to as

12. Web-based Projects Evaluation Management System

S. Al-Zoubi

2008-01-01

Full Text Available This project designs a Web-based evaluation management system for the College of Arts and Sciences (CAS. Problem statement: The Msc students in College of Arts and Sciences (CAS in applied sciences had to take their final project as a project paper in order to fulfill the requirements of their programs and be able to graduate. The final project was evaluated in two parts; first part is representing 40% of the total mark and evaluated by evaluators. Second part was representing 60% of the total mark and evaluated by the student's supervisor. These evaluation were done manually. Both the evaluators and supervisors had to fill in the evaluation forms manually and submit them to the office. Approach: The design research methodology or sometimes called "improvement research" contained the major steps: Awareness the problem, suggestion, development, evaluation and conclusion. Results: Both evaluators and supervisors can fill in the evaluation forms through the Internet. Bring the advantage of saving time and resources over traditional paper and pencil scan sheet method. For enhancing the performance of current final project evaluation process in College of Arts and Sciences (CAS this study proposed a web based evaluation management system to replace the current paper forms used by the evaluators and supervisors. Conclusion: Implementing this system will enable the evaluation results to be entered, presume and retrieved anytime anywhere.

13. Bioenergy scenarios that contribute to a sustainable energy future in the EU27

Uslu, A.; Stralen, van J.; Elbersen, B.S.; Panoutsou, C.; Fritsche, U.; Böttcher, H.

2013-01-01

Three scenarios are developed to illustrate the likely impacts of sustainability criteria on biomass supply and demand within the Biomass Futures project. This paper presents the rationale behind these scenarios. The reference scenario re-analyzes the NREAP bioenergy demands based on the EU Renewabl

14. Fighting Tomorrows Fire Today: Leveraging Intelligence for Scenario-Based Exercise Design

2014-03-01

Peter M. Senge attributes this to a “Mental Models ” all of us carry within ourselves.65 Senge is credited with the iceberg model ...Intelligent Exercise Model , IET, IEM, HSEEP, FDNY, scenario 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 111 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF REPORT...Exercise Theory ...............................................70 2. Clearly Define the Exercise Design Model .......................................71

15. Nuclear Iran: Framing the U.S. Response Using a Scenario-Based Approach

2006-04-01

Scearce, Diana; Katherine Fulton; and the Global Business Network community. WHAT IF? The Art of Scenario Thinking for Nonprofits. Emeryville, CA... Global Business Network, 2004. “Shah’s son wants role in Iran future.” Aljjazeera.net, 15 January 2004, n.p. On-line. Internet, 18 January 2006

16. Google Earth based visualization of Dutch land use scenarios: beyond usability

Lammeren, van R.J.A.; Houtkamp, J.M.; Hilferink, M.; Bouwman, A.

2009-01-01

This contribution describes GESO, a tool to prepare a Google Earth visualization of the Dutch land use scenarios as created by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. This Google Earth (GE) for the Sustainable Outlook tool, named GESO aims to be an effective, easy and low cost way to study

17. Analysing the climatic extremes of future projections for the MedCORDEX domain using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario

Bartholy, Judit; Pongracz, Rita; Pieczka, Ildiko; Szabone Andre, Karolina

2017-04-01

In this study HadGEM2 global climate model outputs were downscaled with RegCM4.3 for the entire MED-44 CORDEX area for the period 1950-2099 using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario. The 50-km resolution RegCM-outputs served as input for further downscaling using 10 km as a horizontal resolution for a smaller domain covering Central Europe with special focus on the Carpathian Region. RCP4.5 is a stabilization scenario while RCP8.5 is a rising radiative forcing pathway, therefore, the difference in the simulation outputs helps to quantify the inertia of the climate system, the importance of anthropogenic influence on climate, and shows the evidence for the need of mitigation and adaptation measures. Evidently, higher temperature change corresponds to RCP8.5 compared to RCP4.5. The difference of global and/or regional warming between the two scenario can reach (or even exceed) 2 °C from the second part of the century. Differences in precipitation projections are less straightforward to explain as no direct link exists with warming and radiative forcing, however, the annual distribution of precipitation is projected to change, which may lead to important consequences on society. Our analysis compares the estimated temperature and precipitation changes with special focus on extreme climatic conditions for the following 10 subregions of the MED-44 CORDEX area: Iberian Peninsula, Apennine Peninsula, Balkan Region, Asia Minor, East European Plain, Middle European Plain, Carpathian Basin, Carpathian Mountains, Alps, Western Europe.

18. Scenario-based tsunami risk assessment using a static flooding approach and high-resolution digital elevation data: An example from Muscat in Oman

Schneider, Bastian; Hoffmann, Gösta; Reicherter, Klaus

2016-04-01

Knowledge of tsunami risk and vulnerability is essential to establish a well-adapted Multi Hazard Early Warning System, land-use planning and emergency management. As the tsunami risk for the coastline of Oman is still under discussion and remains enigmatic, various scenarios based on historical tsunamis were created. The suggested inundation and run-up heights were projected onto the modern infrastructural setting of the Muscat Capital Area. Furthermore, possible impacts of the worst-case tsunami event for Muscat are discussed. The approved Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment Model was used to model the structural vulnerability of the infrastructure for a 2 m tsunami scenario, depicting the 1945 tsunami and a 5 m tsunami in Muscat. Considering structural vulnerability, the results suggest a minor tsunami risk for the 2 m tsunami scenario as the flooding is mainly confined to beaches and wadis. Especially traditional brick buildings, still predominant in numerous rural suburbs, and a prevalently coast-parallel road network lead to an increased tsunami risk. In contrast, the 5 m tsunami scenario reveals extensively inundated areas and with up to 48% of the buildings flooded, and therefore consequently a significantly higher tsunami risk. We expect up to 60000 damaged buildings and up to 380000 residents directly affected in the Muscat Capital Area, accompanied with a significant loss of life and damage to vital infrastructure. The rapid urbanization processes in the Muscat Capital Area, predominantly in areas along the coast, in combination with infrastructural, demographic and economic growth will additionally increase the tsunami risk and therefore emphasizes the importance of tsunami risk assessment in Oman.

19. Scenario planning.

Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

2011-03-01

In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

20. Project-based organizing and strategic management

This volume is designed to renew, stimulate and facilitate discussion about project-based organizations (PBOs) and how they increasingly pervade business dimensions, from R&D and new product development, to the production of complex capital goods and implementation of organizational change across...... very different industries such as management consulting, engineering or entertainment. Contributors analyze PBOs as firms, units or networks of firms set up to complete a specific assignment, as well as address the evolution from traditional operations-driven project management, to the strategic role...

1. Projecting Long-Term Care Expenditure in Four European Union Member States: The Influence of Demographic Scenarios

Costa-Font, Joan; Wittenberg, Raphael; Patxot, Concepcio; Comas-Herrera, Adelina; Gori, Cristiano; di Maio, Alessandra; Pickard, Linda; Pozzi, Alessandro; Rothgang, Heinz

2008-01-01

This study examines the sensitivity of future long-term care demand and expenditure estimates to official demographic projections in four selected European countries: Germany, Spain, Italy and the United Kingdom. It uses standardised methodology in the form of a macro-simulation exercise and finds evidence for significant differences in…

2. Projecting Long-Term Care Expenditure in Four European Union Member States: The Influence of Demographic Scenarios

Costa-Font, Joan; Wittenberg, Raphael; Patxot, Concepcio; Comas-Herrera, Adelina; Gori, Cristiano; di Maio, Alessandra; Pickard, Linda; Pozzi, Alessandro; Rothgang, Heinz

2008-01-01

This study examines the sensitivity of future long-term care demand and expenditure estimates to official demographic projections in four selected European countries: Germany, Spain, Italy and the United Kingdom. It uses standardised methodology in the form of a macro-simulation exercise and finds evidence for significant differences in…

3. Project-based organizing and strategic management

This volume is designed to renew, stimulate and facilitate discussion about project-based organizations (PBOs) and how they increasingly pervade business dimensions, from R&D and new product development, to the production of complex capital goods and implementation of organizational change across...... of projects in delivering innovation and organizational change, and the implications for research and teaching. The volume brings together scholars with a diverse theoretical background and using a wealth of methodological approaches in studying PBOs. It focuses on theoretical frameworks for understanding...... PBOs through different lenses, looks at learning at the individual, team and organizational levels in temporary organizational structures, investigates current issues related to projects and networks, and identifies new areas for future research....

4. Food scenarios 2025

Sundbo, Jon

2016-01-01

This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

5. Scenario? Guilty!

Kyng, Morten

1992-01-01

Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts ...... to warrant a response. I should probably confess that I searched my latest paper for the word "scenario" and found eight occurrences, none of which fell in the categories described by Campbell....

6. [The effect of a scenario-based simulation communication course on improving the communication skills of nurses].

Huang, Ya-Hsuan; Hsieh, Suh-Ing; Hsu, Li-Ling

2014-04-01

Limited disease knowledge is frequently the cause of disease-related anxiety in myocardial infarction patients. The ability to communicate effectively serves multiple purposes in the professional nursing practice. By communicating effectively with myocardial infarction patients, nurses may help reduce their anxiety by keeping them well informed about their disease and teaching them self-care strategies. This research evaluates the communication skills of nurses following scenario-based simulation education in the context of communication with myocardial infarction patients. This study used an experimental design and an educational intervention. The target population comprised nurses of medicine (clinical qualified level N to N2 for nursing) working at a municipal hospital in Taipei City, Taiwan. A total 122 participants were enrolled. Stratified block randomization divided participants into an experimental group and a control group. The experimental group received clinical scenario-based simulation education for communication. The control group received traditional class-based education for communication. Both groups received a pre-test and a Communication Skills Checklist post-test assessment. Results were analyzed using SPSS 17.0 for Windows software. A t-test showed significant increases in communication skills (p communication skills following the education intervention. The results indicate that clinical scenario-based simulation education for communication is significantly more effective than traditional class-based education in enhancing the ability of nurses to communicate effectively with myocardial infarction patients.

7. Stochastic Multi-Commodity Facility Location Based on a New Scenario Generation Technique

Mahootchi, M.; Fattahi, M.; Khakbazan, E.

2011-11-01

This paper extends two models for stochastic multi-commodity facility location problem. The problem is formulated as two-stage stochastic programming. As a main point of this study, a new algorithm is applied to efficiently generate scenarios for uncertain correlated customers' demands. This algorithm uses Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) and a scenario reduction approach. The relation between customer satisfaction level and cost are considered in model I. The risk measure using Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) is embedded into the optimization model II. Here, the structure of the network contains three facility layers including plants, distribution centers, and retailers. The first stage decisions are the number, locations, and the capacity of distribution centers. In the second stage, the decisions are the amount of productions, the volume of transportation between plants and customers.

8. Using Comprehensive Science-based Disaster Scenarios to Support Seismic Safety Policy: A Case Study in Los Angeles, California

Jones, L.

2014-12-01

In 2014, the USGS entered a technical assistance agreement with the City of Los Angeles to apply the results of the 2008 ShakeOut Scenario of a M7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault to develop a comprehensive plan to increase the seismic resilience of the City. The results of this project are to be submitted to the Mayor of Los Angeles at the Great ShakeOut on October 16, 2014. The ShakeOut scenario detailed how the expected cascade of failures in a big earthquake could lead to significant delays in disaster recovery that could create financial losses that greatly exceed the direct losses in the event. The goal of the seismic resilience plan is to: protect the lives of residents during earthquakes improve the capacity of the City to respond to the earthquake prepare the City to recover quickly after the earthquake so as to protect the economy of the City and all of southern California To accomplish these goals, the project addresses three areas of seismic vulnerability that were identified in the original ShakeOut Scenario: Pre-1980 buildings that present an unacceptable risk to the lives of residents, including "non-ductile reinforced concrete," and "soft-first-story" buildings Water system infrastructure (including impact on firefighting capability) Communications infrastructure The critical science needed to support policy decisions is to understand the probable consequences to the regional long-term economy caused by decisions to undertake (or not) different levels of mitigation. The arguments against mitigation are the immediate financial costs, so a better understanding of the eventual benefit is required. However, the direct savings rarely justify the mitigation costs, so the arguments in favor of mitigation are driven by the potential for cascading failures and the potential to trigger the type of long term reduction in population and economic activity that has occurred in New Orleans since Hurricane Katrina.

9. Project types of business process management: Towards a scenario structure to enable situational method engineering for business process management

Bucher, Tobias; Winter, Robert

2009-01-01

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore project types (PTs) of business process management (BPM). PTs are a key concept to describe development situations in situational method engineering (SME). SME acts on the assumption that generic methods need to be adapted to the specifics of the development situation in which they are to be applied. Design/methodology/approach – The paper draws on results from an empirical analysis directed at the identification of design factors of...

10. Scenarios for nature development

Harms, W.B.

1995-01-01

A procedure in backcasting scenarios is presented. Two case-studies differing in scale illustrate the differences in ecological contribution to plan design and to plan evaluation. Scenarios for nature development are presented for both case-studies, based on ecological objectives and spatial strateg

11. Agent-Based Simulations for Project Management

White, J. Chris; Sholtes, Robert M.

2011-01-01

Currently, the most common approach used in project planning tools is the Critical Path Method (CPM). While this method was a great improvement over the basic Gantt chart technique being used at the time, it now suffers from three primary flaws: (1) task duration is an input, (2) productivity impacts are not considered , and (3) management corrective actions are not included. Today, computers have exceptional computational power to handle complex simulations of task e)(eculion and project management activities (e.g ., dynamically changing the number of resources assigned to a task when it is behind schedule). Through research under a Department of Defense contract, the author and the ViaSim team have developed a project simulation tool that enables more realistic cost and schedule estimates by using a resource-based model that literally turns the current duration-based CPM approach "on its head." The approach represents a fundamental paradigm shift in estimating projects, managing schedules, and reducing risk through innovative predictive techniques.

12. Steric Sea Level Change in Twentieth Century Historical Climate Simulation and IPCC-RCP8.5 Scenario Projection: A Comparison of Two Versions of FGOALS Model

DONG Lu; ZHOU Tianjun

2013-01-01

To reveal the steric sea level change in 20th century historical climate simulations and future climate change projections under the IPCC's Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario,the results of two versions of LASG/IAP's Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model (FGOALS) are analyzed.Both models reasonably reproduce the mean dynamic sea level features,with a spatial pattern correlation coefficient of 0.97 with the observation.Characteristics of steric sea level changes in the 20th century historical climate simulations and RCP8.5 scenario projections are investigated.The results show that,in the 20th century,negative trends covered most parts of the global ocean.Under the RCP8.5 scenario,global-averaged steric sea level exhibits a pronounced rising trend throughout the 21st century and the general rising trend appears in most parts of the global ocean.The magnitude of the changes in the 21st century is much larger than that in the 20th century.By the year 2100,the global-averaged steric sea level anomaly is 18 cm and 10 cm relative to the year 1850 in the second spectral version of FGOALS (FGOALS-s2) and the second grid-point version of FGOALS (FGOALS-g2),respectively.The separate contribution of the thermosteric and halosteric components from various ocean layers is further evaluated.In the 20th century,the steric sea level changes in FGOALS-s2 (FGOALS-g2) are largely attributed to the thermosteric (halosteric) component relative to the pre-industrial control run.In contrast,in the 21st century,the thermosteric component,mainly from the upper 1000 m,dominates the steric sea level change in both models under the RCP8.5 scenario.In addition,the steric sea level change in the marginal sea of China is attributed to the thermosteric component.

13. Scenario-based earthquake hazard and risk assessment for Baku (Azerbaijan

G. Babayev

2010-12-01

Full Text Available A rapid growth of population, intensive civil and industrial building, land and water instabilities (e.g. landslides, significant underground water level fluctuations, and the lack of public awareness regarding seismic hazard contribute to the increase of vulnerability of Baku (the capital city of the Republic of Azerbaijan to earthquakes. In this study, we assess an earthquake risk in the city determined as a convolution of seismic hazard (in terms of the surface peak ground acceleration, PGA, vulnerability (due to building construction fragility, population features, the gross domestic product per capita, and landslide's occurrence, and exposure of infrastructure and critical facilities. The earthquake risk assessment provides useful information to identify the factors influencing the risk. A deterministic seismic hazard for Baku is analysed for four earthquake scenarios: near, far, local, and extreme events. The seismic hazard models demonstrate the level of ground shaking in the city: PGA high values are predicted in the southern coastal and north-eastern parts of the city and in some parts of the downtown. The PGA attains its maximal values for the local and extreme earthquake scenarios. We show that the quality of buildings and the probability of their damage, the distribution of urban population, exposure, and the pattern of peak ground acceleration contribute to the seismic risk, meanwhile the vulnerability factors play a more prominent role for all earthquake scenarios. Our results can allow elaborating strategic countermeasure plans for the earthquake risk mitigation in the Baku city.

14. Projected Change in Climate Under A2 Scenario in Dal Lake Catchment Area of Srinagar City in Jammu and Kashmir

Saqib Parvaze1,

2016-08-01

Full Text Available The present study was done to study the effect of climate change on weather parameters like highest possible temperature, lowest possible temperature, average temperature and precipitation. Multiple linear Regression (MLR, Artificial Neural Network (ANN and Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM models were tested in the Dal lake catchment area of Jammu and Kashmir State. Twenty seven year weather data (1985-2012 obtained from SKUAST-Kashmir weather station was used for the study. The modeling results showed a first-rate agreement between the observed data and predicted values for temperature series with high coefficient of determination R2 values varying from (0.87-0.97 for different models. In case of precipitation R2 values varied from (0.112-219 for different models. The low values of coefficient of determination in precipitation time series are due to lot of uncertainty in occurrence of precipitation which could not be defined by the selected models. The SDSM showed the best results of the three models tested for prediction of weather parameters. Thus SDSM was used for climate scenario generation. By comparing daily precipitation and temperature series for 1985-2012 with 2015-2030, an overall increasing pattern of 0.46%, 1.96%, 0.95% and 2.66% was observed for monthly, highest possible temperature, lowest possible temperature, average temperature and precipitation.

15. A Case-Based System for Construction Project Risk Management

YANG Lan-rong; ZHANG Jin-long

2002-01-01

This paper presents a Case-Based system for assisting construction project managers in identifying risk factors and the corresponding construction project risk. The construction project risk identification model captures the case, acquired from previous completed construction projects and experience. A prototype is developed based on the proposed Case-Based system to determine risk factors along with their risk effects.

16. Tsunami hazard potential for the equatorial southwestern Pacific atolls of Tokelau from scenario-based simulations

Orpin, Alan R.; Rickard, Graham J.; Gerring, Peter K.; Lamarche, Geoffroy

2016-05-01

Devastating tsunami over the last decade have significantly heightened awareness of the potential consequences and vulnerability of low-lying Pacific islands and coastal regions. Our appraisal of the potential tsunami hazard for the atolls of the Tokelau Islands is based on a tsunami source-propagation-inundation model using Gerris Flow Solver, adapted from the companion study by Lamarche et al. (2015) for the islands of Wallis and Futuna. We assess whether there is potential for tsunami flooding on any of the village islets from a selection of 14 earthquake-source experiments. These earthquake sources are primarily based on the largest Pacific earthquakes of Mw ≥ 8.1 since 1950 and other large credible sources of tsunami that may impact Tokelau. Earthquake-source location and moment magnitude are related to tsunami-wave amplitudes and tsunami flood depths simulated for each of the three atolls of Tokelau. This approach yields instructive results for a community advisory but is not intended to be fully deterministic. Rather, the underlying aim is to identify credible sources that present the greatest potential to trigger an emergency response. Results from our modelling show that wave fields are channelled by the bathymetry of the Pacific basin in such a way that the swathes of the highest waves sweep immediately northeast of the Tokelau Islands. Our limited simulations suggest that trans-Pacific tsunami from distant earthquake sources to the north of Tokelau pose the most significant inundation threat. In particular, our assumed worst-case scenario for the Kuril Trench generated maximum modelled-wave amplitudes in excess of 1 m, which may last a few hours and include several wave trains. Other sources can impact specific sectors of the atolls, particularly distant earthquakes from Chile and Peru, and regional earthquake sources to the south. Flooding is dependent on the wave orientation and direct alignment to the incoming tsunami. Our "worst-case" tsunami

17. Is story-based blended learning a promising avenue for skin and sexual health education? Results from the PAEDIMED project.

Apfelbacher, Christian J; Deimling, Erika; Wulfhorst, Britta; Adler, Frederic; Diepgen, Thomas L; Linder, Dennis; Blenk, Holger; Stosiek, Nikolaus; Reinmann, Gabi

2010-03-01

The PAEDIMED study group developed a learning and teaching scenario for school health education in the area of skin and sexual health in Italy, Romania and Germany, combining web-based and traditional learning ("blended learning"). A questionnaire-based needs assessment and context analysis were conducted, based on which an education scenario was designed. Particular emphasis was put on emotional and motivational aspects, using narrative components in the didactic concept. The design process occupied a central role in the project (design-based research). Evaluation was both formative and summative. Continuous feedback was obtained from relevant stakeholders. Following a prototypical implementation, the scenario was evaluated using questionnaires. The results revealed a high level of acceptance of the education scenario as well as an increase in students' knowledge concerning skin and sexual health. Evaluation also suggested that health education is highly influenced by cultural background and habits as well as diverse contextual and personal conditions.

18. Integrating experimental and numerical methods for a scenario-based quantitative assessment of subsurface energy storage options

Kabuth, Alina; Dahmke, Andreas; Hagrey, Said Attia al; Berta, Márton; Dörr, Cordula; Koproch, Nicolas; Köber, Ralf; Köhn, Daniel; Nolde, Michael; Tilmann Pfeiffer, Wolf; Popp, Steffi; Schwanebeck, Malte; Bauer, Sebastian

2016-04-01

Within the framework of the transition to renewable energy sources ("Energiewende"), the German government defined the target of producing 60 % of the final energy consumption from renewable energy sources by the year 2050. However, renewable energies are subject to natural fluctuations. Energy storage can help to buffer the resulting time shifts between production and demand. Subsurface geological structures provide large potential capacities for energy stored in the form of heat or gas on daily to seasonal time scales. In order to explore this potential sustainably, the possible induced effects of energy storage operations have to be quantified for both specified normal operation and events of failure. The ANGUS+ project therefore integrates experimental laboratory studies with numerical approaches to assess subsurface energy storage scenarios and monitoring methods. Subsurface storage options for gas, i.e. hydrogen, synthetic methane and compressed air in salt caverns or porous structures, as well as subsurface heat storage are investigated with respect to site prerequisites, storage dimensions, induced effects, monitoring methods and integration into spatial planning schemes. The conceptual interdisciplinary approach of the ANGUS+ project towards the integration of subsurface energy storage into a sustainable subsurface planning scheme is presented here, and this approach is then demonstrated using the examples of two selected energy storage options: Firstly, the option of seasonal heat storage in a shallow aquifer is presented. Coupled thermal and hydraulic processes induced by periodic heat injection and extraction were simulated in the open-source numerical modelling package OpenGeoSys. Situations of specified normal operation as well as cases of failure in operational storage with leaking heat transfer fluid are considered. Bench-scale experiments provided parameterisations of temperature dependent changes in shallow groundwater hydrogeochemistry. As a

19. A Comprehensive Modeling Study on Regional Climate Model (RCM Application — Regional Warming Projections in Monthly Resolutions under IPCC A1B Scenario

Md. Mujibur Rahman

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Some of the major dimensions of climate change include increase in surface temperature, longer spells of droughts in significant portions of the world, associated higher evapotranspiration rates, and so on. It is therefore essential to comprehend the future possible scenario of climate change in terms of global warming. A high resolution limited area Regional Climate Model (RCM can produce reasonably appropriate projections to be used for climate-scenario generation in country-scale. This paper features the development of future surface temperature projections for Bangladesh on monthly resolution for each year from 2011 to 2100 applying Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS, and it explains in detail the modeling processes including the model features, domain size selection, bias identification as well as construction of change field for the concerned climatic variable, in this case, surface temperature. PRECIS was run on a 50 km horizontal grid-spacing under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC A1B scenario and it was found to perform reasonably well in simulating future surface temperature of Bangladesh. The linear regression between observed and model simulated results of monthly average temperatures, within the 30-year period from 1971 to 2000, gives a high correlation of 0.93. The applied change field in average annual temperature shows only 0.5 °C–1 °C deviation from the observed values over the period from 2005 to 2008. Eventually, from the projected average temperature change during the years 1971–2000, it is apparent that warming in Bangladesh prevails invariably every month, which might eventually result in an average annual increase of 4 °C by the year 2100. Calculated anomalies in country-average annual temperature mostly remain on the positive side throughout the period of 2071–2100 indicating an overall up-shift. Apart from these quantitative analyses of temporal changes of temperature

20. Metaphorical scenarios in business science discourse

Baramee Kheovichai

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Metaphor has been shown to play an important role in business science discourse. Yet, previous corpus-based studies only investigated a pre-selected list of metaphoric expressions, potentially rendering the analysis incomplete. Furthermore, some studies which only focused on lexis did not analyse how the lexical items may construct business concepts in terms of scenarios. The purpose of this research is to investigate metaphor used to construct business concepts in business research articles. 42 business research articles published in 2009-2010 from five journals ranked in the top-ten according to the 2007 journal impact factors (Thompson Reuters, 2008 constitute the data of this study. Semantic annotation software USAS (Rayson, 2008 was used to assist in the retrieval of metaphoric expressions. Furthermore, manual analysis of concordances was done to find metaphorical expressions that had not been captured by the semantic tags. The analysis of these metaphoric expressions was based on Conceptual Metaphor Theory (Lakoff & Johnson, 1980 and Metaphor Scenario (Musolff, 2006. Data analysis indicates that metaphor constructs business concepts as scenarios which have participants performing actions to reach their goal according to the SOURCE-PATH-GOAL schema of the source domains. At the centre of these scenarios, the BOUNDED SPACE source domain serves as a conceptual space or a setting for each scenario. Other source domains, which are WAR, SPORT, GAME, JOURNEY, MACHINE, LIVING ORGANISM, BUILDING and PHYSICAL FORCES, project the scenarios onto the space, forming interconnected and coherent scenarios of business discourse

1. Scenarios for global emissions from air traffic. The development of regional and gridded (5 degrees x 5 degrees) emissions scenarios for aircraft and for surface sources, based on CPB scenarios and existing emission inventories for aircraft and surface sources

Olivier JGJ; LAE

1995-01-01

An estimate was made of present global emissions from air traffic using statistical information on fuel consumption, aircraft types and applying emission factors for various compounds. To generate scenarios for future emissions from air traffic, assumptions were used regarding the development of the

2. A Case-Based Scenario with Interdisciplinary Guided-Inquiry in Chemistry and Biology: Experiences of First Year Forensic Science Students

Cresswell, Sarah L.; Loughlin, Wendy A.

In this paper, insight into forensic science students' experiences of a case-based scenario with an interdisciplinary guided-inquiry experience in chemistry and biology is presented. Evaluation of student experiences and interest showed that the students were engaged with all aspects of the case-based scenario, including the curriculum theory…

3. Integrative Scenario Development

Joerg A. Priess

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Scenarios are employed to address a large number of future environmental and socioeconomic challenges. We present a conceptual framework for the development of scenarios to integrate the objectives of different stakeholder groups. Based on the framework, land-use scenarios were developed to provide a common base for further research. At the same time, these scenarios assisted regional stakeholders to bring forward their concerns and arrive at a shared understanding of challenges between scientific and regional stakeholders, which allowed them to eventually support regional decision making. The focus on the integration of views and knowledge domains of different stakeholder groups, such as scientists and practitioners, required rigorous and repeated measures of quality control. The application of the integrative concept provided products for both stakeholder groups, and the process of scenario development facilitated cooperation and learning within both the scientist and practitioner groups as well as between the two groups.

4. An integrated assessment of energy-water nexus at the state level in the United States: Projections and analyses under different scenarios through 2095

Liu, L.; Patel, P. L.; Hejazi, M. I.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E. G.; Zhou, Y.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J.

2013-12-01

, while U.S. electric-sector water withdrawals are projected to decline by 8.6% - 89% by 2095 and water consumptions are projected to increase by 14% - 101%. Some regional patterns could be observed when analyzing the state-level results spatially. Under the climate mitigation policy (RCP4.5) scenario, nuclear power plants contribute heavily to total electric-sector water withdrawal and consumption in Eastern U.S., while under the reference scenario, coal power plants are the primary water users in Eastern U.S. In the reference scenario, Eastern U.S. is projected to experience substantial drops in water withdrawals, while the Western U.S. will likely endure a moderate increase over the century. The highly-resolved nature of this study both geographically and technologically provides a useful platform to address scientific and policy relevant and emerging issues at the heart of the water-energy nexus in the U.S. Although this study is focused on the U.S., it is performed in the context of the global framework of GCAM where local changes can propagate to influence decisions in other regions outside of the U.S. and vice versa.

5. ORGANIZATION OF FUTURE ENGINEERS' PROJECT-BASED LEARNING WHEN STUDYING THE PROJECT MANAGEMENT METHODOLOGY

Halyna V. Lutsenko

2015-02-01

Full Text Available The peculiarities of modern world experience of implementation of project-based learning in engineering education have been considered. The potential role and place of projects in learning activity have been analyzed. The methodology of organization of project-based activity of engineering students when studying the project management methodology and computer systems of project management has been proposed. The requirements to documentation and actual results of students' projects have been described in detail. The requirements to computer-aided systems of project management developed by using Microsoft Project in the scope of diary scheduling and resources planning have been formulated.

6. Tradeoffs between Maize Silage Yield and Nitrate Leaching in a Mediterranean Nitrate-Vulnerable Zone under Current and Projected Climate Scenarios

Basso, Bruno; Giola, Pietro; Dumont, Benjamin; Migliorati, Massimiliano De Antoni; Cammarano, Davide; Pruneddu, Giovanni; Giunta, Francesco

2016-01-01

Future climatic changes may have profound impacts on cropping systems and affect the agronomic and environmental sustainability of current N management practices. The objectives of this work were to i) evaluate the ability of the SALUS crop model to reproduce experimental crop yield and soil nitrate dynamics results under different N fertilizer treatments in a farmer’s field, ii) use the SALUS model to estimate the impacts of different N fertilizer treatments on NO3- leaching under future climate scenarios generated by twenty nine different global circulation models, and iii) identify the management system that best minimizes NO3- leaching and maximizes yield under projected future climate conditions. A field experiment (maize-triticale rotation) was conducted in a nitrate vulnerable zone on the west coast of Sardinia, Italy to evaluate N management strategies that include urea fertilization (NMIN), conventional fertilization with dairy slurry and urea (CONV), and no fertilization (N0). An ensemble of 29 global circulation models (GCM) was used to simulate different climate scenarios for two Representative Circulation Pathways (RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) and evaluate potential nitrate leaching and biomass production in this region over the next 50 years. Data collected from two growing seasons showed that the SALUS model adequately simulated both nitrate leaching and crop yield, with a relative error that ranged between 0.4% and 13%. Nitrate losses under RCP8.5 were lower than under RCP6.0 only for NMIN. Accordingly, levels of plant N uptake, N use efficiency and biomass production were higher under RCP8.5 than RCP6.0. Simulations under both RCP scenarios indicated that the NMIN treatment demonstrated both the highest biomass production and NO3- losses. The newly proposed best management practice (BMP), developed from crop N uptake data, was identified as the optimal N fertilizer management practice since it minimized NO3- leaching and maximized biomass production over

7. Tradeoffs between Maize Silage Yield and Nitrate Leaching in a Mediterranean Nitrate-Vulnerable Zone under Current and Projected Climate Scenarios.

Basso, Bruno; Giola, Pietro; Dumont, Benjamin; Migliorati, Massimiliano De Antoni; Cammarano, Davide; Pruneddu, Giovanni; Giunta, Francesco

2016-01-01

Future climatic changes may have profound impacts on cropping systems and affect the agronomic and environmental sustainability of current N management practices. The objectives of this work were to i) evaluate the ability of the SALUS crop model to reproduce experimental crop yield and soil nitrate dynamics results under different N fertilizer treatments in a farmer's field, ii) use the SALUS model to estimate the impacts of different N fertilizer treatments on NO3- leaching under future climate scenarios generated by twenty nine different global circulation models, and iii) identify the management system that best minimizes NO3- leaching and maximizes yield under projected future climate conditions. A field experiment (maize-triticale rotation) was conducted in a nitrate vulnerable zone on the west coast of Sardinia, Italy to evaluate N management strategies that include urea fertilization (NMIN), conventional fertilization with dairy slurry and urea (CONV), and no fertilization (N0). An ensemble of 29 global circulation models (GCM) was used to simulate different climate scenarios for two Representative Circulation Pathways (RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) and evaluate potential nitrate leaching and biomass production in this region over the next 50 years. Data collected from two growing seasons showed that the SALUS model adequately simulated both nitrate leaching and crop yield, with a relative error that ranged between 0.4% and 13%. Nitrate losses under RCP8.5 were lower than under RCP6.0 only for NMIN. Accordingly, levels of plant N uptake, N use efficiency and biomass production were higher under RCP8.5 than RCP6.0. Simulations under both RCP scenarios indicated that the NMIN treatment demonstrated both the highest biomass production and NO3- losses. The newly proposed best management practice (BMP), developed from crop N uptake data, was identified as the optimal N fertilizer management practice since it minimized NO3- leaching and maximized biomass production over the

8. Conceiving Scenario-Based IS Support for Knowledge Synthesis: The Organization Architect

Kam Hou VAT

2005-06-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the idea of creating information systems (IS support for knowledge work through the elaboration of typical organizational scenarios. Specifically, our research is driven by a belief that the design issues of IS support must be situated in the context of social processes in which, in a specific organizational scenario, a particular group of people can conceptualize their knowledge work and hence the purposeful action they wish to undertake. This provides the basis for ascertaining what information support is needed by those who undertake that action, and how modern information technology can help to provide that support. Thereby, designing IS support for knowledge work requires attention to the purposeful action which the IS serves, and hence to the meanings which make those particular actions meaningful and relevant to particular groups of people in a particular situation. This is often facilitated by the provision of an important enquiry process constantly attended to, and integrated into organizational activities by which IS professionals could learn of the organization's continual adjustments to its changing world. Our discussion here brings forth the notion of the learning organization information systems (LOIS, through which each member of the organization is enabled to create his or her own knowledge space, which is subject to some level of description, and thus may be architected and integrated into an organization. Importantly, in order to develop the various LOIS support for knowledge work, we need the correspondent organization scenarios to contextualize the IS design. And we attribute this development philosophy to the essence of systems thinking in conceiving IS support. The paper concludes by reiterating the work of the organization architect, which entails understanding, analyzing, designing, and communicating the most relevant parts of the organization and how they fit together.

9. Conceiving Scenario-Based IS Support for Knowledge Synthesis: The Organization Architect

Kam Hou VAT

2005-06-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the idea of creating information systems (IS support for knowledge work through the elaboration of typical organizational scenarios. Specifically, our research is driven by a belief that the design issues of IS support must be situated in the context of social processes in which, in a specific organizational scenario, a particular group of people can conceptualize their knowledge work and hence the purposeful action they wish to undertake. This provides the basis for ascertaining what information support is needed by those who undertake that action, and how modern information technology can help to provide that support. Thereby, designing IS support for knowledge work requires attention to the purposeful action which the IS serves, and hence to the meanings which make those particular actions meaningful and relevant to particular groups of people in a particular situation. This is often facilitated by the provision of an important enquiry process constantly attended to, and integrated into organizational activities by which IS professionals could learn of the organization's continual adjustments to its changing world. Our discussion here brings forth the notion of the learning organization information systems (LOIS, through which each member of the organization is enabled to create his or her own knowledge space, which is subject to some level of description, and thus may be architected and integrated into an organization. Importantly, in order to develop the various LOIS support for knowledge work, we need the correspondent organization scenarios to contextualize the IS design. And we attribute this development philosophy to the essence of systems thinking in conceiving IS support. The paper concludes by reiterating the work of the organization architect, which entails understanding, analyzing, designing, and communicating the most relevant parts of the organization and how they fit together.

10. Blind estimation of the number of speech source in reverberant multisource scenarios based on binaural signals

May, Tobias; van de Par, Steven

2012-01-01

In this paper we present a new approach for estimating the number of active speech sources in the presence of interfering noise sources and reverberation. First, a binaural front-end is used to detect the spatial positions of all active sound sources, resulting in a binary mask for each candidate...... on a support vector machine (SVM) classifier. A systematic analysis shows that the proposed algorithm is able to blindly determine the number and the corresponding spatial positions of speech sources in multisource scenarios and generalizes well to unknown acoustic conditions...

11. Measurement-based Channel Characterization for 5G Wireless Communications on Campus Scenario

Mi, Yang; He, Ruisi; Ai, Bo

2017-01-01

The fifth generation (5G) communication has been a hotspot of research in recent years, and both research institutions and industrial enterprises put a lot of interests for 5G communication at some new frequency bands. In this paper, we investigate the radio channels of 5G communications below 6...... GHz according to the requirements and scenarios of 5G communication. Channel measurements were conducted on campus of Beijing Jiaotong University, China at two key optional frequency bands below 6 GHz. By using the measured data, we analyzed key channel parameters at 460MHz and 3.5GHz, such as power...

12. Projected Flood Risks in China Based on CMIP5

XU Ying; ZHANG Bing; ZHOU Bo-Tao; DONG Si-Yan; YU Li; LI Rou-Ke

2014-01-01

Based on the simulations of 22 CMIP5 models in combination with socio-economic data and terrain elevation data, the spatial distribution of risk levels of flood disaster and the vulnerability to flood hazards in China are projected under the RCP8.5 for the near term period (2016-2035), medium term period (2046-2065) and long term period (2080-2099), respectively. The results show that regions with high flood hazard levels are mainly located in Southeast China, while the vulnerability to flood hazards is high in eastern China. Under the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas emissions scenario, future high flood risk levels will mainly appear in the eastern part of Sichuan, in major part of East China, and in the provinces of Hebei, Beijing, and Tianjin. The major cities in Northeast China, some areas in Shaanxi and Shanxi, as well as the coastal areas in southeastern China will also encounter high flood risks. Compared with the baseline period, the regional flood risk levels will increase towards the end of the 21st century, although the occurrences of floods change little. Due to the coarse resolution of the climate models and the indistinct methodology for determining the weight coefficients, large uncertainty still exists in the projection of flood risks.

13. A stakeholder project to model water temperature under future climate scenarios in the Satus and Toppenish watersheds of the Yakima River Basinin Washington, USA

Graves, D.; Maule, A.

2014-01-01

The goal of this study was to support an assessment of the potential effects of climate change on select natural, social, and economic resources in the Yakima River Basin. A workshop with local stakeholders highlighted the usefulness of projecting climate change impacts on anadromous steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss), a fish species of importance to local tribes, fisherman, and conservationists. Stream temperature is an important environmental variable for the freshwater stages of steelhead. For this study, we developed water temperature models for the Satus and Toppenish watersheds, two of the key stronghold areas for steelhead in the Yakima River Basin. We constructed the models with the Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP), a mechanistic approach to simulate water temperature in a stream network. The models were calibrated over the April 15, 2008 to September 30, 2008 period and validated over the April 15, 2009 to September 30, 2009 period using historic measurements of stream temperature and discharge provided by the Yakama Nation Fisheries Resource Management Program. Once validated, the models were run to simulate conditions during the spring and summer seasons over a baseline period (1981–2005) and two future climate scenarios with increased air temperature of 1°C and 2°C. The models simulated daily mean and maximum water temperatures at sites throughout the two watersheds under the baseline and future climate scenarios.

14. Exploring an Ecologically Sustainable Scheme for Landscape Restoration of Abandoned Mine Land: Scenario-Based Simulation Integrated Linear Programming and CLUE-S Model

Zhang, Liping; Zhang, Shiwen; Huang, Yajie; Cao, Meng; Huang, Yuanfang; Zhang, Hongyan

2016-01-01

Understanding abandoned mine land (AML) changes during land reclamation is crucial for reusing damaged land resources and formulating sound ecological restoration policies. This study combines the linear programming (LP) model and the CLUE-S model to simulate land-use dynamics in the Mentougou District (Beijing, China) from 2007 to 2020 under three reclamation scenarios, that is, the planning scenario based on the general land-use plan in study area (scenario 1), maximal comprehensive benefit...

15. Multi-scenario-based hazard analysis of high temperature extremes experienced in China during 1951-2010

YIN Zhan'e; YIN Jie; ZHANG Xiaowei

2013-01-01

China is physically and socio-economically susceptible to global warming-derived high temperature extremes because of its vast area and high urban population density.This article presents a scenario-based analysis method for high temperature extremes aimed at illustrating the latter's hazardous potential and exposure across China.Based on probability analysis,high temperature extreme scenarios with return periods of 5,10,20,and 50 years were designed,with a high temperature hazard index calculated by integrating two differentially-weighted extreme temperature indices (maximum temperature and high temperature days).To perform the exposure analysis,a land use map was employed to determine the spatial distribution of susceptible human activities under the different scenarios.The results indicate that there are two heat-prone regions and a sub-hotspot occupying a relatively small land area.However,the societal and economic consequences of such an environmental impact upon the North China Plain and middle/lower Yangtze River Basin would be substantial due to the concentration of human activities in these areas.

16. [New paradigm for soil and water conservation: a method based on watershed process modeling and scenario analysis].

Zhu, A-Xing; Chen, La-Jiao; Qin, Cheng-Zhi; Wang, Ping; Liu, Jun-Zhi; Li, Run-Kui; Cai, Qiang-Guo

2012-07-01

With the increase of severe soil erosion problem, soil and water conservation has become an urgent concern for sustainable development. Small watershed experimental observation is the traditional paradigm for soil and water control. However, the establishment of experimental watershed usually takes long time, and has the limitations of poor repeatability and high cost. Moreover, the popularization of the results from the experimental watershed is limited for other areas due to the differences in watershed conditions. Therefore, it is not sufficient to completely rely on this old paradigm for soil and water loss control. Recently, scenario analysis based on watershed modeling has been introduced into watershed management, which can provide information about the effectiveness of different management practices based on the quantitative simulation of watershed processes. Because of its merits such as low cost, short period, and high repeatability, scenario analysis shows great potential in aiding the development of watershed management strategy. This paper elaborated a new paradigm using watershed modeling and scenario analysis for soil and water conservation, illustrated this new paradigm through two cases for practical watershed management, and explored the future development of this new soil and water conservation paradigm.

17. Climate response to projected changes in short-lived species under an A1B scenario from 2000-2050 in the GISS climate model

Menon, Surabi; Shindell, Drew T.; Faluvegi, Greg; Bauer, Susanne E.; Koch, Dorothy M.; Unger, Nadine; Menon, Surabi; Miller, Ron L.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Streets, David G.

2007-03-26

We investigate the climate forcing from and response to projected changes in short-lived species and methane under the A1B scenario from 2000-2050 in the GISS climate model. We present a meta-analysis of new simulations of the full evolution of gas and aerosol species and other existing experiments with variations of the same model. The comparison highlights the importance of several physical processes in determining radiative forcing, especially the effect of climate change on stratosphere-troposphere exchange, heterogeneous sulfate-nitrate-dust chemistry, and changes in methane oxidation and natural emissions. However, the impact of these fairly uncertain physical effects is substantially less than the difference between alternative emission scenarios for all short-lived species. The net global mean annual average direct radiative forcing from the short-lived species is .02 W/m{sup 2} or less in our projections, as substantial positive ozone forcing is largely offset by negative aerosol direct forcing. Since aerosol reductions also lead to a reduced indirect effect, the global mean surface temperature warms by {approx}0.07 C by 2030 and {approx}0.13 C by 2050, adding 19% and 17%, respectively, to the warming induced by long-lived greenhouse gases. Regional direct forcings are large, up to 3.8 W/m{sup 2}. The ensemble-mean climate response shows little regional correlation with the spatial pattern of the forcing, however, suggesting that oceanic and atmospheric mixing generally overwhelms the effect of even large localized forcings. Exceptions are the polar regions, where ozone and aerosols may induce substantial seasonal climate changes.

18. Hybrid Map-Based Navigation Method for Unmanned Ground Vehicle in Urban Scenario

Huiyan Chen

2013-07-01

Full Text Available To reduce the data size of metric map and map matching computational cost in unmanned ground vehicle self-driving navigation in urban scenarios, a metric-topological hybrid map navigation system is proposed in this paper. According to the different positioning accuracy requirements, urban areas are divided into strong constraint (SC areas, such as roads with lanes, and loose constraint (LC areas, such as intersections and open areas. As direction of the self-driving vehicle is provided by traffic lanes and global waypoints in the road network, a simple topological map is fit for the navigation in the SC areas. While in the LC areas, the navigation of the self-driving vehicle mainly relies on the positioning information. Simultaneous localization and mapping technology is used to provide a detailed metric map in the LC areas, and a window constraint Markov localization algorithm is introduced to achieve accurate position using laser scanner. Furthermore, the real-time performance of the Markov algorithm is enhanced by using a constraint window to restrict the size of the state space. By registering the metric maps into the road network, a hybrid map of the urban scenario can be constructed. Real unmanned vehicle mapping and navigation tests demonstrated the capabilities of the proposed method.

19. Policy Choice for Urban Low-carbon transportation in Beijing: Scenario Analysis Based on LEAP model

Zhang, Yu

2016-04-01

Beijing is a fast developing megacity with serious traffic problems, such as high energy consumption, high CO2 emission and traffic congestion. The coming 13th Five-Year Plan for Beijing economic and social development will focus on the low-carbon transportation policy to achieve the urban traffic sustainable development. In order to improve the feasibility of urban low-carbon transportation policies, this paper analyzes the future trends of CO2 emissions from transportation of Beijing. Firstly, five policies scenarios are developed according to the coming Beijing 13th Five-Year Plan, including the "Business As Usual (BAU)", the "Public Transportation Priority(PTP)", the "New Energy Vehicle(NEV)", the "Active Transportation(AT)", the "Private Car Regulation(PCR)" and the "Hybrid Policy(HP)". Then the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System(LEAP model) framework is adopted to estimate CO2 emission under given policies scenarios up to year 2020 and analyze the implications. The results demonstrate that the low-carbon transportation policies can reduce CO2 emission effectively. Specifically, the "Hybrid Policy(HP)" has the best performance. In terms of single policy effect, the "Private Car Regulation(PCR)" comes first followed by the "Public Transportation Priority(PTP)".

20. Effects of fishing effort allocation scenarios on energy efficiency and profitability: an individual-based model applied to Danish fisheries

Bastardie, Francois; Nielsen, J. Rasmus; Andersen, Bo Sølgaard

2010-01-01

engine specifications, and fish and fuel prices. The outcomes of scenarios A and B indicate a trade-off between fuel savings and energy efficiency improvements when effort is displaced closer to the harbour compared to reductions in total landing amounts and profit. Scenario C indicates that historic...... efficiency (quantity of fish caught per litre of fuel used), and profitability are factors that we simulated in developing a spatially explicit individual-based model (IBM) for fishing vessel movements. The observed spatial and seasonal patterns of fishing effort for each fishing activity are evaluated...... to the harbour, and (C) allocating effort towards optimising the expected area-specific profit per trip. The model is informed by data from each Danish fishing vessel >15 m after coupling its high resolution spatial and temporal effort data (VMS) with data from logbook landing declarations, sales slips, vessel...

1. SCENARIOS SIMULATION OF COUPLING SYSTEM BETWEEN URBANIZATION AND ECO-ENVIRONMENT IN JIANGSU PROVINCE BASED ON SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL

LIU Yao-bin; LI Ren-dong; LI Chun-hua

2005-01-01

By means of ISM (Interpretative Structural Modeling) and SD (System Dynamics) methods, this paper made a system dynamics model of urbanization and eco-environment coupling in Jiangsu Province according to the implication and PSR (Pressure State Response) framework of urbanization and eeo-environment coupling. Moreover, five typical scenarios during 2000-2015 have been simulated and analyzed based on the time serial statistical data during 1990-2003 in Jiangsu, which indicates: firstly, there are significant differences between the results and the scenarios,and the five coupling models all have comparative advantages and drawbacks; secondly, in terms of the characteristics and regional development disparities of Jiangsu and the general rule of world urbanization process, this paper reveals that only when either population urbanization model or social urbanization model to be correspondingly adopted, the sustainable development among population, economy, urbanization and eeo-environment can be realized.

2. Non-sectarian scenario experiments in socio-ecological knowledge building for multi-use marine environments: Insights from New Zealand's Marine Futures project

Le Heron, Richard

2016-01-29

The challenges of managing marine ecosystems for multiple users, while well recognised, has not led to clear strategies, principles or practice. The paper uses novel workshop based thought-experiments to address these concerns. These took the form of trans-disciplinary Non-Sectarian Scenario Experiments (NSSE), involving participants who agreed to put aside their disciplinary interests and commercial and institutional obligations. The NSSE form of co-production of knowledge is a distinctive addition to the participatory and scenario literatures in marine resource management (MRM). Set in the context of resource use conflicts in New Zealand, the workshops assembled diverse participants in the marine economy to co-develop and co-explore the making of socio-ecological knowledge and identify capability required for a new generation of multi-use oriented resource management. The thought-experiments assumed that non-sectarian navigation of scenarios will resource a step-change in marine management by facilitating new connections, relationships, and understandings of potential marine futures. Two questions guided workshop interactions: what science needs spring from pursuing imaginable possibilities and directions in a field of scenarios, and what kinds of institutions would aid the generation of science knowledge, and it application to policy and management solutions. The effectiveness of the thought- experiments helped identify ways of dealing with core problems in multi-use marine management, such as the urgent need to cope with ecological and socio-economic surprise, and define and address cumulative impacts. Discussion focuses on how the workshops offered fresh perspectives and insights into a number of challenges. These challenges include building relations of trust and collective organisation, showing the importance of values-means-ends pathways, developing facilitative legislation to enable initiatives, and the utility of the NSSEs in informing new governance and

3. Systems Engineering Education Based on Evolutional Project-Based Learning

Inoue, Masahiro; Hasegawa, Hiroshi

The knowledge and skills in systems engineering including project management are necessary for engineers who are engaged in planning and developing systems. Experiences of project execution are necessary for understanding systems engineering. Challenge is how to teach systems engineering to students who have scarce project experiences. In the education, giving the experience including a real experience and a pseudo-experience will be indispensable. In this paper, systems engineering education by evolutional Project-Based Learning (PBL) is designed and evaluated. In curriculum, exercises and lectures are executed alternately and evolutionally in three steps of PBLs ; Workshop of System Thinking, mathematical knowledge and technique are delivered in the first step PBL. Techniques of systems engineering are provided in the second step PBL. Finally project management is obtained in the third step PBL. Execution and evaluation of the education show that the Evolutional Project-Based Learning of systems engineering is effective not only to improve knowledge and experience of students but also to motivate students to study systems engineering.

4. Increasing Plant Based Foods or Dairy Foods Differentially Affects Nutrient Intakes: Dietary Scenarios Using NHANES 2007-2010.

Cifelli, Christopher J; Houchins, Jenny A; Demmer, Elieke; Fulgoni, Victor L

2016-07-11

Diets rich in plant foods and lower in animal-based products have garnered increased attention among researchers, dietitians and health professionals in recent years for their potential to, not only improve health, but also to lessen the environmental impact. However, the potential effects of increasing plant-based foods at the expense of animal-based foods on macro- and micronutrient nutrient adequacy in the U.S. diet is unknown. In addition, dairy foods are consistently under consumed, thus the impact of increased dairy on nutrient adequacy is important to measure. Accordingly, the objective of this study was to use national survey data to model three different dietary scenarios to assess the effects of increasing plant-based foods or dairy foods on macronutrient intake and nutrient adequacy. Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2007-2010 for persons two years and older (n = 17,387) were used in all the analyses. Comparisons were made of usual intake of macronutrients and shortfall nutrients of three dietary scenarios that increased intakes by 100%: (i) plant-based foods; (ii) protein-rich plant-based foods (i.e., legumes, nuts, seeds, soy); and (iii) milk, cheese and yogurt. Scenarios (i) and (ii) had commensurate reductions in animal product intake. In both children (2-18 years) and adults (≥19 years), the percent not meeting the Estimated Average Requirement (EAR) decreased for vitamin C, magnesium, vitamin E, folate and iron when plant-based foods were increased. However the percent not meeting the EAR increased for calcium, protein, vitamin A, and vitamin D in this scenario. Doubling protein-rich plant-based foods had no effect on nutrient intake because they were consumed in very low quantities in the baseline diet. The dairy model reduced the percent not meeting the EAR for calcium, vitamin A, vitamin D, magnesium, and protein, while sodium and saturated fat levels increased. Our modeling shows that increasing plant-based

5. Increasing Plant Based Foods or Dairy Foods Differentially Affects Nutrient Intakes: Dietary Scenarios Using NHANES 2007–2010

Christopher J. Cifelli

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Diets rich in plant foods and lower in animal-based products have garnered increased attention among researchers, dietitians and health professionals in recent years for their potential to, not only improve health, but also to lessen the environmental impact. However, the potential effects of increasing plant-based foods at the expense of animal-based foods on macro- and micronutrient nutrient adequacy in the U.S. diet is unknown. In addition, dairy foods are consistently under consumed, thus the impact of increased dairy on nutrient adequacy is important to measure. Accordingly, the objective of this study was to use national survey data to model three different dietary scenarios to assess the effects of increasing plant-based foods or dairy foods on macronutrient intake and nutrient adequacy. Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 2007–2010 for persons two years and older (n = 17,387 were used in all the analyses. Comparisons were made of usual intake of macronutrients and shortfall nutrients of three dietary scenarios that increased intakes by 100%: (i plant-based foods; (ii protein-rich plant-based foods (i.e., legumes, nuts, seeds, soy; and (iii milk, cheese and yogurt. Scenarios (i and (ii had commensurate reductions in animal product intake. In both children (2–18 years and adults (≥19 years, the percent not meeting the Estimated Average Requirement (EAR decreased for vitamin C, magnesium, vitamin E, folate and iron when plant-based foods were increased. However the percent not meeting the EAR increased for calcium, protein, vitamin A, and vitamin D in this scenario. Doubling protein-rich plant-based foods had no effect on nutrient intake because they were consumed in very low quantities in the baseline diet. The dairy model reduced the percent not meeting the EAR for calcium, vitamin A, vitamin D, magnesium, and protein, while sodium and saturated fat levels increased. Our modeling shows that

6. [Synergistic emission reduction of chief air pollutants and greenhouse gases-based on scenario simulations of energy consumptions in Beijing].

Xie, Yuan-bo; Li, Wei

2013-05-01

It is one of the common targets and important tasks for energy management and environmental control of Beijing to improve urban air quality while reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). Here, based on the interim and long term developmental planning and energy structure of the city, three energy consumption scenarios in low, moderate and high restrictions were designed by taking the potential energy saving policies and environmental targets into account. The long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) model was employed to predict and evaluate reduction effects of the chief air pollutants and GHG during 2010 to 2020 under the three given scenarios. The results showed that if urban energy consumption system was optimized or adjusted by exercising energy saving and emission reduction and pollution control measures, the predicted energy uses will be reduced by 10 to 30 million tons of coal equivalents by 2020. Under the two energy scenarios with moderate and high restrictions, the anticipated emissions of SO2, NOx, PM10, PM2.5, VOC and GHG will be respectively reduced to 71 to 100.2, 159.2 to 218.7, 89.8 to 133.8, 51.4 to 96.0, 56.4 to 74.8 and 148 200 to 164 700 thousand tons. Correspondingly, when compared with the low-restriction scenario, the reducing rate will be 53% to 67% , 50% to 64% , 33% to 55% , 25% to 60% , 41% to 55% and 26% to 34% respectively. Furthermore, based on a study of synergistic emission reduction of the air pollutants and GHG, it was proposed that the adjustment and control of energy consumptions shall be intensively developed in the three sectors of industry, transportation and services. In this way the synergistic reduction of the emissions of chief air pollutants and GHG will be achieved; meanwhile the pressures of energy demands may be deliberately relieved.

7. Managing Obstetric Emergencies and Trauma (MOET structured skills training in Armenia, utilising models and reality based scenarios

Israelyan Musheg

2002-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Mortality rates in Western Europe have fallen significantly over the last 50 years. Maternal mortality now averages 10 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births but in some of the Newly Independent States of the former Soviet Union, the ratio is nearly 4 times higher. The availability of skilled attendants to prevent, detect and manage major obstetric complications may be the single most important factor in preventing maternal deaths. A modern, multidisciplinary, scenario and model based training programme has been established in the UK (Managing Obstetric Emergencies and Trauma (MOET and allows specialist obstetricians to learn or revise the undertaking of procedures using models, and to have their skills tested in scenarios. Methods Given the success of the MOET course in the UK, the organisers were keen to evaluate it in another setting (Armenia. Pre-course knowledge and practice questionnaires were administered. In an exploratory analysis, post-course results were compared to pre-course answers obtained by the same interviewer. Results All candidates showed an improvement in post-course scores. The range was far narrower afterwards (167–188 than before (85–129.5. In the individual score analysis only two scenarios showed a non-significant change (cord prolapse and breech delivery. Conclusion This paper demonstrates the reliability of the model based scenarios, with a highly significant improvement in obstetric emergency management. However, clinical audit will be required to measure the full impact of training by longer term follow up. Audit of delays, specific obstetric complications, referrals and near misses may all be amenable to review.

8. Scenario analysis

Li, L.; Braat, L.C.; Lei, G.; Arets, E.J.M.M.; Liu, J.; Jiang, L.; Fan, Z.; Liu, W.; He, H.; Sun, X.

2014-01-01

This chapter presents the results of the scenario analysis of China’s ecosystems focusing on forest, grassland, and wetland ecosystems. The analysis was undertaken using Conversion of Land Use Change and its Effects (CLUE) modeling and an ecosystem service matrix (as explained below) complemented by

9. Harmonizing human-hydrological system under climate change: A scenario-based approach for the case of the headwaters of the Tagus River

Lobanova, Anastasia; Liersch, Stefan; Tàbara, J. David; Koch, Hagen; Hattermann, Fred F.; Krysanova, Valentina

2017-05-01

Conventional water management strategies, that serve solely socio-economic demands and neglect changing natural conditions of the river basins, face significant challenges in governing complex human-hydrological systems, especially in the areas with constrained water availability. In this study we assess the possibility to harmonize the inter-sectoral water allocation scheme within a highly altered human-hydrological system under reduction in water availability, triggered by projected climate change applying scenario-based approach. The Tagus River Basin headwaters, with significant disproportion in the water resources allocation between the environmental and socio-economic targets were taken as a perfect example of such system out of balance. We propose three different water allocation strategies for this region, including two conventional schemes and one imposing shift to sustainable water management and environmental restoration of the river. We combine in one integrated modelling framework the eco-hydrological process-based Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM), coupled with the conceptual reservoir and water allocation modules driven by the latest bias-corrected climate projections for the region and investigate possible water allocation scenarios in the region under constrained water availability in the future. Our results show that the socio-economic demands have to be re-considered and lowered under any water allocation strategy, as the climate impacts may significantly reduce water availability in the future. Further, we show that a shift to sustainable water management strategy and river restoration is possible even under reduced water availability. Finally, our results suggest that the adaptation of complex human-hydrological systems to climate change and a shift to a more sustainable water management are likely to be parts of one joint strategy to cope with climate change impacts.

10. Process-based project proposal risk management

Alok Kumar

2016-12-01

Full Text Available We all are aware of the organizational omnipresence. Projects within the organizations are ubiquitous too. Projects achieve their goals successfully if they are planned, scheduled, controlled and implemented well. The project lifecycle of initiating, planning, scheduling, controlling and implementing are very well-planned by project managers and the organizations. Successful projects have well-developed risk management plans to deal with situations impacting projects. Like any other organisation, a university does try to access funds for different purposes too. For such organisations, running a project is not the issue, rather getting a project proposal approved to fund a project is the key. Project proposal processing is done by the nodal office in every organisation. Usually, these nodal offices help in administration and submission of a project proposal for accessing funds. Seldom are these nodal project offices within the organizations facilitate a project proposal approval by proactively reaching out to the project managers. And as project managers prepare project proposals, little or no attention is made to prepare a project proposal risk plan so as to maximise project acquisition. Risk plans are submitted while preparing proposals but these risk plans cater to a requirement to address actual projects upon approval. Hence, a risk management plan for project proposal is either missing or very little effort is made to treat the risks inherent in project acquisition. This paper is an integral attempt to highlight the importance of risk treatment for project proposal stage as an extremely important step to preparing the risk management plan made for projects corresponding to their lifecycle phases. Several tools and techniques have been proposed in the paper to help and guide either the project owner (proposer or the main organisational unit responsible for project management. Development of tools and techniques to further enhance project

11. Projecting potential distribution of Eucryptorrhynchus scrobiculatus Motschulsky and E. brandti (Harold) under historical climate and RCP 8.5 scenario.

Ji, Yingchao; Luo, Wen; Zhang, Ganyu; Wen, Junbao

2017-08-22

Ailanthus altissima (Mill.) Swingle and its variant A. altissima var. Qiantouchun are notorious invasive weeds. Two weevils, Eucryptorrhynchus scrobiculatus (ESC) and E. brandti (EBR) are considered as candidates for biological control of A. altissima. The aim of this study was to model the potential distributions of ESC and EBR using CLIMEX 4.0. The projected potential distributions of ESC and EBR included almost all current distribution areas of A. altissima, except Southeast Asia. Under historical climate, potential distribution area of EBR is larger than that of ESC, 46.67 × 10(6) km(2) and 35.65 × 10(6) km(2), respectively. For both ESC and EBR, climate change expanded the northern boundary of potential distributions northward approximately 600 km by the middle of 21st century, and 1000 km by the end of 21st century under RCP 8.5. However, the suitable range decreased to the south in the Southern Hemisphere because of heat stress. The modelled potential distributions of ESC and EBR in the United States demonstrated that the climate was suitable for both weevils. Therefore, considering only climate suitability, both ESC and EBR can be considered as potential biological control agents against A. altissima with some confidence that climatic conditions are likely suitable.

12. Scenarios, policies and impacts for the linked transport and energy systems. Results of the European TRIAS project

Schade, Wolfgang; Helfrich, Nicki [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer Systemtechnik und Innovationsforschung (ISI), Karlsruhe (Germany); Krail, Michael [Karlsruhe Univ. (T.H.) (Germany). Inst. fuer Wirtschaftspolitik und Wirtschaftsforschung; Fiorello, Davide; Fermi, Francesca [TRT Trasporti e Territori, Milan (Italy); Schade, Burkhard [European Commission Seville (ES). Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS)

2008-07-01

High oil prices and the growing awareness that this will not be a temporary but a permanent situation fosters the search for alternative fuels and new technologies to propel the transport system, which, so far, in Europe depends to more than 96% on fossil fuels. Two of these alternatives would be hydrogen and biofuels that both can be generated from a number of different sources including a number of non-fossil and renewable sources. The TRIAS project combined four models (ASTRA, POLES, VACLAV, Regio-SUSTAIN) to analyse the impacts of different policies that would foster the diffusion of alternative fuels into the transport system. The impact analysis covers the fields of transport, energy, environment, technology and economy. The basic conclusions that can be drawn are that such policies, if they are formulated in an appropriate manner, could stimulate investments and economic development on the one hand and on the other hand would have the potential to generate positive impacts in terms of reductions of CO{sub 2} emissions and increase of security of energy supply due to reduced imports of fossil fuels and the use of a greater diversity of fuels for transport. (orig.)

13. A Space Domain Energetics Study for CO2 Increasing Based on SRES-A2 Emission Scenario

José Augusto P. Veiga

2013-01-01

Full Text Available This work presents a detailed investigation of the changes in the global pattern of energetics under a prescribed temporal evolution of CO2 concentration as proposed by the A2 IPCC forcing scenario (SRES-A2 using a combination of reanalysis and climate models. A validation climatology is computed using the classic Lorenz energetic formulation, with generation and dissipation components estimated as residuals. The results show a good agreement overall between models and reanalysis for the present day climate, noting that the models generally give more zonal energy and less eddy energy when compared to the reanalysis. Spatial analysis translates the above results as models depicting greater energy associated with the subtropical jet streams than effectively observed. This pattern is observed regardless of season or hemisphere. The projections for future climate scenarios suggest a further increase in the zonal kinetic energy, with a slight average reduction in all other terms. This pattern is seen in association with a substantial decrease in the conversion term mainly associated with sensible heat transport (CA under a warmer climate. In agreement with recent work in the literature, our results suggest an overall reduction of the global energetics under increasing CO2.

14. A Scenario-Based Mobile Application for Robot-Assisted Smart Digital Homes

Manashty, Ali Reza; Jahromi, Zahra Forootan

2010-01-01

Smart homes are becoming more popular, as every day a new home appliance can be digitally controlled. Smart Digital Homes are using a server to make interaction with all the possible devices in one place, on a computer or webpage. In this paper we designed and implemented a mobile application using Windows Mobile platform that can connect to the controlling server of a Smart Home and grants the access to the Smart Home devices and robots everywhere possible. UML diagrams are presented to illustrate the application design process. Robots are also considered as devices that are able to interact to other object and devices. Scenarios are defined as a set of sequential actions to help manage different tasks all in one place. The mobile application can connect to the server using GPRS mobile internet and Short Message System (SMS). Interactive home map is also designed for easier status-checking and interacting with the devices using the mobile phones.

15. Measurement-based Channel Characterization for 5G Wireless Communications on Campus Scenario

Mi, Yang; He, Ruisi; Ai, Bo

2017-01-01

The fifth generation (5G) communication has been a hotspot of research in recent years, and both research institutions and industrial enterprises put a lot of interests for 5G communication at some new frequency bands. In this paper, we investigate the radio channels of 5G communications below 6...... GHz according to the requirements and scenarios of 5G communication. Channel measurements were conducted on campus of Beijing Jiaotong University, China at two key optional frequency bands below 6 GHz. By using the measured data, we analyzed key channel parameters at 460MHz and 3.5GHz, such as power...... delay profile, path loss exponent, shadow fading, and delay spread. The results are helpful for the 5G communication system design....

16. A Two-Account Life Insurance Model for Scenario-Based Valuation Including Event Risk

Jensen, Ninna Reitzel; Schomacker, Kristian Juul

2015-01-01

and unit-linked insurance. By use of a two-account model, we are able to illustrate general concepts without making the model too abstract. To allow for complicated financial markets without dramatically increasing the mathematical complexity, we focus on economic scenarios. We illustrate the use of our......Using a two-account model with event risk, we model life insurance contracts taking into account both guaranteed and non-guaranteed payments in participating life insurance as well as in unit-linked insurance. Here, event risk is used as a generic term for life insurance events, such as death...... product types. This enables comparison of participating life insurance products and unit-linked insurance products, thus building a bridge between the two different ways of formalizing life insurance products. Finally, our model distinguishes itself from the existing literature by taking into account...

17. An Empirically grounded Agent Based simulator for the Air Traffic Management in the SESAR scenario

Gurtner, Gérald; Ducci, Marco; Miccichè, Salvatore

2016-01-01

In this paper we present a simulator allowing to perform policy experiments relative to the air traffic management. Different SESAR solutions can be implemented in the model to see the reaction of the different stakeholders as well as other relevant metrics (delays, safety, etc). The model describes both the strategic phase associated to the planning of the flight trajectories and the tactical modifications occurring in the en-route phase. An implementation of the model is available as open-source and freely accessible by any user. More specifically, different procedures related to business trajectories and free-routing are tested and we illustrate the capabilities of the model on airspace implementing these concepts. After performing numerical simulations with the model, we show that in a free-routing scenario the controllers perform less operations although they are dispersed over a larger portion of the airspace. This can potentially increase the complexity of conflict detection and resolution for controll...

18. An attempt to solve the hierarchy problem based on gravity-gauge-Higgs unification scenario

Hasegawa, K. [Graduate School of Science and Technology, Kobe University, Rokkodai, Nada, Kobe 657-8501 (Japan)]. E-mail: kouhei@phys.sci.kobe-u.ac.jp; Lim, C.S. [Department of Physics, Kobe University, Rokkodai, Nada, Kobe 657-8501 (Japan)]. E-mail: lim@phys.sci.kobe-u.ac.jp; Maru, Nobuhito [Theoretical Physics Laboratory, RIKEN, Wako, Saitama 351-0198 (Japan)]. E-mail: maru@riken.jp

2004-12-16

We discuss a possible scenario to solve the hierarchy problem, in which 4-dimensional bosonic fields with all possible integer spins, graviton, gauge boson and Higgs are unified in a framework of a gravity theory with extra dimensions. The Higgs is identified with the extra space component of the metric tensor. One-loop quantum effect on the Higgs mass-squared is explicitly calculated in a five-dimensional gravity theory compactified on S{sup 1}. We obtain a finite calculable Higgs mass-squared without suffering from quadratic divergence, by virtue of general coordinate transformation invariance, which is argued to be guaranteed by the summation over all Kaluza-Klein modes running in the loop diagrams.

19. Projected changes, climate change signal, and uncertainties in the CMIP5-based projections of ocean surface wave heights

Wang, Xiaolan; Feng, Yang; Swail, Val R.

2016-04-01

Ocean surface waves can be major hazards in coastal and offshore activities. However, wave observations are available only at limited locations and cover only the recent few decades. Also, there exists very limited information on ocean wave behavior in response to climate change, because such information is not simulated in current global climate models. In a recent study, we used a multivariate regression model with lagged dependent variable to make statistical global projections of changes in significant wave heights (Hs) using mean sea level pressure (SLP) information from 20 CMIP5 climate models for the twenty-first century. The statistical model was calibrated and validated using the ERA-Interim reanalysis of Hs and SLP for the period 1981-2010. The results show Hs increases in the tropics (especially in the eastern tropical Pacific) and in southern hemisphere high-latitudes. Under the projected 2070-2099 climate condition of the RCP8.5 scenario, the occurrence frequency of the present-day one-in-10-year extreme wave heights is likely to double or triple in several coastal regions around the world (e.g., the Chilean coast, Gulf of Oman, Gulf of Bengal, Gulf of Mexico). More recently, we used the analysis of variance approaches to quantify the climate change signal and uncertainty in multi-model ensembles of statistical Hs simulations globally, which are based on the CMIP5 historical, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 forcing scenario simulations of SLP. In a 4-model 3-run ensemble, the 4-model common signal of climate change is found to strengthen over time, as would be expected. For the historical followed by RCP8.5 scenario, the common signal in annual mean Hs is found to be significant over 16.6%, 55.0% and 82.2% of the area by year 2005, 2050 and 2099, respectively. For the annual maximum, the signal is much weaker. The signal is strongest in the eastern tropical Pacific, featuring significant increases in both the annual mean and maximum of Hs in this region. The climate

20. Scaffolding Project-Based Learning with the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK[R])

van Rooij, Shahron Williams

2009-01-01

This paper reports the results of a study of the extent to which processes and procedures from the discipline of project management can scaffold online project-based learning in a graduate-level instructional technology course, by facilitating intra-team interaction, enhancing project outcomes and promoting a positive project team experience. With…

1. Scaffolding Project-Based Learning with the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK[R])

van Rooij, Shahron Williams

2009-01-01

This paper reports the results of a study of the extent to which processes and procedures from the discipline of project management can scaffold online project-based learning in a graduate-level instructional technology course, by facilitating intra-team interaction, enhancing project outcomes and promoting a positive project team experience. With…

2. Knowledge Governance in Project-Based Organizations

Pemsel, Sofia; Wiewiora, Anna; Müller, Ralf

This paper conceptualizes knowledge governance (KG) in project-based organizations (PBOs) and its methodological approaches for empirical investigation. Three key contributions towards a multi-faceted view of KG and an understanding of KG in PBOs are advanced. These contributions include...... a definition of KG in PBOs, a conceptual framework to investigate KG and a methodological framework for empirical inquiry into KG in PBO settings. Our definition highlights the contingent nature of KG processes in relation to their organizational context. The conceptual framework addresses macro- and micro...

3. Crustal Structure at the North Eastern Tip of Rivera Plate, Nayarit- Marias Islands Region: Scenarios and Tectonic Implications. Tsujal Project

Danobeitia, J.; Bartolome, R.; Barba, D. C., Sr.; Nunez-Cornu, F. J.; Bandy, W. L.; Prada, M.; Cameselle, A. L.; Nunez, D.; Espindola, J. M.; Estrada, F.; Zamora, A.; Gomez, A.; Ortiz, M.

2014-12-01

A primarily analysis of marine geophysical data acquired aboard the RRS James Cook in the framework of the project "Characterization of seismic hazard and tsunami associated with cortical contact structure Rivera Jalisco Block Plate (TSUJAL)" is presented. This survey was held in the region of Nayarit-Tres Marias Islands between February and March 2014. The examination of data recorded by 16 OBS 's, deployed along 4 wide angle seismic profiles is presented, using an airgun-array seismic source of 6800 c.i., which allows sampling the crustal structure to the Moho. The profiles are located along the margin off the Marias Islands: a profile of over 200 km NNW-SSE direction and parallel to the western flank of the Islas Marias Islands and three orthogonal thereto. These perpendicular sections sample the lithosphere from the north of Maria Madre Island with a profile of 100 km length, across Maria Magdalena and Mari Cleofas Islands, with a profile of 50 km long, till south of Maria Cleofas with a profile of 100 km long. Coincident multichannel seismic profiles with refraction ones are also surveyed, although shooting with a source of 3,540 c. i., and acquired with a digital "streamer" of 6.0 km long. Simultaneously, multibeam, parametric and potential field data were recorded during seismic acquisition A first analysis shows an anomalously thickened crust in the western flank of the Marias Islands, as indicated by relatively short pre-critical distances of 30-35 km. While the moderate dip of 7 ° of the subduction of the Pacific oceanic plate favors somehow this effect, the existence of a remnant crustal fragment is also likely. Moreover, the images provided by the parametric sounding show abundant mass wasting deposits suggesting of recent active tectonics, possibly generated by earthquakes with moderate magnitude as those reported in the Marias Islands. This set of geophysical data, not only provide valuable information for the seismogenic characterization and

4. The Development Framework for Scenario-based Goal Modeling%基于剧本的目标模型开发框架

林涛; 应晶

2000-01-01

Beginning with recent issues in requirement engineering,this paper proposes a development framework for scenario-based goal modeling(SBGMF),which integrates with scenario management to goal modeling successfully, and supports elaboration, analysis, validation and corporation, and stimulates the mechanism of requirement tracing and component reusing. The paper addresses the structure and functions of the framework SBGMF.

5. Projecting the impacts of rising seawater temperatures on the distribution of seaweeds around Japan under multiple climate change scenarios

Takao, Shintaro; Kumagai, Naoki H; Yamano, Hiroya; FUJII, Masahiko; YAMANAKA, Yasuhiro

2014-01-01

Seaweed beds play a key role in providing essential habitats and energy to coastal areas, with enhancements in productivity and biodiversity and benefits to human societies. However, the spatial extent of seaweed beds around Japan has decreased due to coastal reclamation, water quality changes, rising water temperatures, and heavy grazing by herbivores. Using monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST) data from 1960 to 2099 and SST-based indices, we quantitatively evaluated the effects of war...

6. Projecting the impacts of rising seawater temperatures on the distribution of seaweeds around Japan under multiple climate change scenarios

Takao, Shintaro; Kumagai, Naoki H; Yamano, Hiroya; FUJII, Masahiko; YAMANAKA, Yasuhiro

2015-01-01

Seaweed beds play a key role in providing essential habitats and energy to coastal areas, with enhancements in productivity and biodiversity and benefits to human societies. However, the spatial extent of seaweed beds around Japan has decreased due to coastal reclamation, water quality changes, rising water temperatures, and heavy grazing by herbivores. Using monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST) data from 1960 to 2099 and SST-based indices, we quantitatively evaluated the effects of war...

7. Projected impact of climate change in the North and Baltic Sea. Results from dynamical downscaling of global CMIP climate scenarios

Gröger, Matthias; Maier-Reimer, Ernst; Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Sein, Dmitry

2013-04-01

Climate models have predicted strongest climate change impact for the mid/high lattiude areas. Despite their importance, shelves seas (which are supposed to account for more than 20% of global marine primary production and for up to 50% of total marine carbon uptake) are not adequately resolved in climate models. In this study, the global ocean general circulation and biogeochemistry model MPIOM/HAMOCC has been setup with an enhanced resolution over the NW European shelf (~10 km in the southern North Sea). For a realistic representation of atmosphere-ocean interactions the regional model REMO has been implemented. Thus, this model configuration allows a physically consistent simulation of climate signal propagation from the North Atlantic over the North Sea into the Baltic Sea since it interactively simulates mass and energy fluxes between the three basins. The results indicate substantial changes in hydrographic and biological conditions for the end of the 21st Century. A freshening by about 0.75 psu together with a surface warming of ~2.0 K and associated circulation changes in and outside the North Sea reduce biological production on the NW European shelf by ~35%. This reduction is twice as strong as the reduction in the open ocean. The underlying mechanism is a spatially well confined stratification feedback along the shelf break and the continental slope which reduces the winter mixed layer by locally more than 200 m compared to current conditions. As a consequence winter nutrient supply from the deep Atlantic declines between 40 and 50%. In addition to this, the volume transport of water and salt into the North Sea will slightly reduce (~10%) during summer. At the end of the 21st Century the North Sea appears nearly decoupled from the deep Atlantic. The projected decline in biological productivity and subsequent decrease of phytoplankton (by averaged 25%) will probably negatively affect the local fish stock in the North Sea. In the Baltic Sea the climate

8. Procurement Practices in Project Based Manufacturing Environments

Shah Satya

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Procurement is one of the processes that cannot be separated in a business. To be able to run a business, it certainly needs to go through procurement stage that involves purchasing raw materials and services. There are many procurement practices in different kinds of business environment such as manufacturing business and construction business. Competitive strategies application within procurement in this manufacturing is very important in order to win a tender for material procurement required in projects. The paper examines how competitive strategies are applied within procurement practice in project-based manufacturing environment. This research studies in the literature of management in engineering, competitive strategy, procurement integration, and case study that takes a sample from the examples of procurement practice application in large organisation such as that of McDermott. The research aims to conduct a qualitative research method based on the discussion and analysis of literature reviews and case study to build conclusions. The findings suggest business players should have core competencies and develop factors such as superior quality, price advantage, on-time delivery, flexibility, and innovation through technology in order to win the competition.

9. Participatory scenario planning in place-based social-ecological research: insights and experiences from 23 case studies

Elisa Oteros-Rozas

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Participatory scenario planning (PSP is an increasingly popular tool in place-based environmental research for evaluating alternative futures of social-ecological systems. Although a range of guidelines on PSP methods are available in the scientific and grey literature, there is a need to reflect on existing practices and their appropriate application for different objectives and contexts at the local scale, as well as on their potential perceived outcomes. We contribute to theoretical and empirical frameworks by analyzing how and why researchers assess social-ecological systems using place-based PSP, hence facilitating the appropriate uptake of such scenario tools in the future. We analyzed 23 PSP case studies conducted by the authors in a wide range of social-ecological settings by exploring seven aspects: (1 the context; (2 the original motivations and objectives; (3 the methodological approach; (4 the process; (5 the content of the scenarios; (6 the outputs of the research; and (7 the monitoring and evaluation of the PSP process. This was complemented by a reflection on strengths and weaknesses of using PSP for the place-based social-ecological research. We conclude that the application of PSP, particularly when tailored to shared objectives between local people and researchers, has enriched environmental management and scientific research through building common understanding and fostering learning about future planning of social-ecological systems. However, PSP still requires greater systematic monitoring and evaluation to assess its impact on the promotion of collective action for transitions to sustainability and the adaptation to global environmental change and its challenges.

10. Making use of scenarios : supporting scenario use in product design

Anggreeni, Irene

2010-01-01

The discipline of Scenario-Based Product Design (SBPD) guides the use of scenarios in a product design process. As concrete narratives, scenarios could facilitate making explicit how users would use the designed product in their activities, allowing usability studies to be an integrated part of the

11. Automation of block assignment planning using a diagram-based scenario modeling method

Hwang In Hyuck

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Most shipbuilding scheduling research so far has focused on the load level on the dock plan. This is be¬cause the dock is the least extendable resource in shipyards, and its overloading is difficult to resolve. However, once dock scheduling is completed, making a plan that makes the best use of the rest of the resources in the shipyard to minimize any additional cost is also important. Block assignment planning is one of the midterm planning tasks; it assigns a block to the facility (factory/shop or surface plate that will actually manufacture the block according to the block characteristics and current situation of the facility. It is one of the most heavily loaded midterm planning tasks and is carried out manu¬ally by experienced workers. In this study, a method of representing the block assignment rules using a diagram was su¬ggested through analysis of the existing manual process. A block allocation program was developed which automated the block assignment process according to the rules represented by the diagram. The planning scenario was validated through a case study that compared the manual assignment and two automated block assignment results.

12. The multiscale importance of road segments in a network disruption scenario: a risk-based approach.

Freiria, Susana; Tavares, Alexandre O; Pedro Julião, Rui

2015-03-01

This article addresses the problem of the multiscale importance of road networks, with the aim of helping to establish a more resilient network in the event of a road disruption scenario. A new model for identifying the most important roads is described and applied on a local and regional scale. The work presented here represents a step forward, since it focuses on the interaction between identifying the most important roads in a network that connect people and health services, the specificity of the natural hazards that threaten the normal functioning of the network, and an assessment of the consequences of three real-world interruptions from a multiscale perspective. The case studies concern three different past events: road interruptions due to a flood, a forest fire, and a mass movement. On the basis of the results obtained, it is possible to establish the roads for which risk management should be a priority. The multiscale perspective shows that in a road interruption the regional system may have the capacity to reorganize itself, although the interruption may have consequences for local dynamics. Coordination between local and regional scales is therefore important. The model proposed here allows for the scaling of emergency response facilities and human and physical resources. It represents an innovative approach to defining priorities, not only in the prevention phase but also in terms of the response to natural disasters, such as awareness of the consequences of road disruption for the rescue services sent out to local communities.

13. Scenario Based Municipal Wastewater Estimation: Development and Application of a Dynamic Simulation Model

Yong Zhang

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This paper develops causal loop diagrams and a system dynamics model for estimation of wastewater quantity changes as a function of future socioeconomic development and the municipal water environment of the city under the influence of several key factors. Using Wuhan (a city with population more than 10 million in China as a case study, the variability of Wuhan’s wastewater quantity and water environment is modeled under different development patterns by year 2030. Nine future scenarios are designed by assigning different values to those key factors, including GDP growth rate, water consumption of annual ten thousand GDP, and wastewater treatment fee. The results show that (1 GDP growth leads to an increase in municipal wastewater quantity, but an increase in wastewater treatment fee can be in favor of reducing urban water pollution, and (2 the impact of per ten thousand yuan GDP water consumption on the amount of municipal wastewater is larger in the near future, while the impact of GDP growth rate is much larger in the long term. The dynamic model has proven to be reliable for simulating the municipal wastewater changes, and it could help decision makers to make the scientific and reasonable decisions.

14. Automation of block assignment planning using a diagram-based scenario modeling method

Hwang, In Hyuck; Kim, Youngmin; Lee, Dong Kun; Shin, Jong Gye

2014-03-01

Most shipbuilding scheduling research so far has focused on the load level on the dock plan. This is be¬cause the dock is the least extendable resource in shipyards, and its overloading is difficult to resolve. However, once dock scheduling is completed, making a plan that makes the best use of the rest of the resources in the shipyard to minimize any additional cost is also important. Block assignment planning is one of the midterm planning tasks; it assigns a block to the facility (factory/shop or surface plate) that will actually manufacture the block according to the block characteristics and current situation of the facility. It is one of the most heavily loaded midterm planning tasks and is carried out manu¬ally by experienced workers. In this study, a method of representing the block assignment rules using a diagram was su¬ggested through analysis of the existing manual process. A block allocation program was developed which automated the block assignment process according to the rules represented by the diagram. The planning scenario was validated through a case study that compared the manual assignment and two automated block assignment results.

15. A scenario-based modeling approach for emergency evacuation management and risk analysis under multiple uncertainties.

Lv, Y; Huang, G H; Guo, L; Li, Y P; Dai, C; Wang, X W; Sun, W

2013-02-15

Nuclear emergency evacuation is important to prevent radioactive harms by hazardous materials and to limit the accidents' consequences; however, uncertainties are involved in the components and processes of such a management system. In the study, an interval-parameter joint-probabilistic integer programming (IJIP) method is developed for emergency evacuation management under uncertainties. Optimization techniques of interval-parameter programming (IPP) and joint-probabilistic constrained (JPC) programming are incorporated into an integer linear programming framework, so that the approach can deal with uncertainties expressed as joint probability and interval values. The IJIP method can schedule the optimal routes to guarantee the maximum population evacuated away from the effected zone during a finite time. Furthermore, it can also facilitate post optimization analysis to enhance robustness in controlling system violation risk imposed on the joint-probabilistic constraints. The developed method has been applied to a case study of nuclear emergency management; meanwhile, a number of scenarios under different system conditions have been analyzed. It is indicated that the solutions are useful for evacuation management practices. The result of the IJIP method can not only help to raise the capability of disaster responses in a systematic manner, but also provide an insight into complex relationships among evacuation planning, resources utilizations, policy requirements and system risks.

16. Automation of block assignment planning using a diagram-based scenario modeling method

In Hyuck Hwang

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Most shipbuilding scheduling research so far has focused on the load level on the dock plan. This is because the dock is the least extendable resource in shipyards, and its overloading is difficult to resolve. However, once dock scheduling is completed, making a plan that makes the best use of the rest of the resources in the shipyard to minimize any additional cost is also important. Block assignment planning is one of the midterm planning tasks; it assigns a block to the facility (factory/shop or surface plate that will actually manufacture the block according to the block characteristics and current situation of the facility. It is one of the most heavily loaded midterm planning tasks and is carried out manually by experienced workers. In this study, a method of representing the block assignment rules using a diagram was suggested through analysis of the existing manual process. A block allocation program was developed which automated the block assignment process according to the rules represented by the diagram. The planning scenario was validated through a case study that compared the manual assignment and two automated block assignment results.

17. Study of the triton-burnup process in different JET scenarios using neutron monitor based on CVD diamond

Nemtsev, G.; Amosov, V.; Meshchaninov, S.; Popovichev, S.; Rodionov, R.

2016-11-01

We present the results of analysis of triton burn-up process using the data from diamond detector. Neutron monitor based on CVD diamond was installed in JET torus hall close to the plasma center. We measure the part of 14 MeV neutrons in scenarios where plasma current varies in a range of 1-3 MA. In this experiment diamond neutron monitor was also able to detect strong gamma bursts produced by runaway electrons arising during the disruptions. We can conclude that CVD diamond detector will contribute to the study of fast particles confinement and help predict the disruption events in future tokamaks.

18. Using a Theory-Consistent CVAR Scenario to Test an Exchange Rate Model Based on Imperfect Knowledge

Katarina Juselius

2017-07-01

Full Text Available A theory-consistent CVAR scenario describes a set of testable regularieties one should expect to see in the data if the basic assumptions of the theoretical model are empirically valid. Using this method, the paper demonstrates that all basic assumptions about the shock structure and steady-state behavior of an an imperfect knowledge based model for exchange rate determination can be formulated as testable hypotheses on common stochastic trends and cointegration. This model obtaines remarkable support for almost every testable hypothesis and is able to adequately account for the long persistent swings in the real exchange rate.

19. Teaching Scenario-Based Planning for Sustainable Landscape Development: An Evaluation of Learning Effects in the Cagliari Studio Workshop

Christian Albert

2015-05-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the contributions of an intensive educational workshop to advance students’ understanding and skills for collaborative, scenario-based landscape planning. The research design involves a case study workshop with thirty international students and several regional experts as well as a multi-stage, in-process evaluation. The workshop resulted in six different alternative futures for the region of Cagliari, Italy, and a seventh combined version that was considered best by regional reviewers. The students’ learning evaluation showed substantial advances in their relevant understanding and skills. Key aspects of the workshop pedagogy and the evaluation are discussed, and recommendations for future applications presented.

20. A Scenario Based Approach to Separate the Impacts of Land Use and Climate Alteration on Daily Flow Regime Indices

Darabi, Hamid; Torabi Haghighi, Ali; Fazel, Nasim; Klöve, Björn

2017-04-01

Land use and climate changes have important impacts on water resources such as river flow regimes and they are often complicated to separate at the watershed scale. To separate impact, we develop a scenario based approach using remote sensing and hydro-climatological data. Using the framework, we assess the on hydrological indices in Marboreh watershed (headwater of Dez River which modified by the most important hydropower plant in Iran). The analysis is based on data from three Landsat TM images (1988, 1998 and 2008), meteorological data (1983-2012) at Aligudarz station and hydrological data (1983-2012) at Doroud gauge station. To carry out the study, the QUAC module and supervised classification (ML algorithm) in the ENVI 5.1, the SWAT model and Mann-Kendall method were used for remote sensing, hydrological modeling and trend analysis respectively. To analyses the impact of land use and climate changes, the studied period was divided into three decades (1983-1992, 1993-2002 and 2003-2012). For all periods, the land use maps were assigned based on the middle year of each decade (1988, 1998 and 2008). Then, 10 hydrological indices related to high flow and low flow indices (HDI and LDI) were analyzed for seven scenarios which were created by combining predefined climatic periods and land use maps. Base on the RS analysis, the major alterations in land use including degradation of natural rangeland (-18.49%) and increasing farming land (+16.70%) and residential area (+0.80%) were assessed from 1988 to 2008. The Mann-Kendall test indicates a statistically decreasing trend in rainfall induced runoff and increasing trend in the temperature at the 5% and 1% significance levels, respectively. The results of this study clearly showed that in Marboreh watershed is influenced by climate variability impact on hydrological indices more than land use change. Also, the present study demonstrated that the low flow indices were affected more than high flow indices in both climate

1. Spiral and Project-Based Learning with Peer Assessment in a Computer Science Project Management Course

Jaime, Arturo; Blanco, José Miguel; Domínguez, César; Sánchez, Ana; Heras, Jónathan; Usandizaga, Imanol

2016-01-01

Different learning methods such as project-based learning, spiral learning and peer assessment have been implemented in science disciplines with different outcomes. This paper presents a proposal for a project management course in the context of a computer science degree. Our proposal combines three well-known methods: project-based learning,…

2. Spiral and Project-Based Learning with Peer Assessment in a Computer Science Project Management Course

Jaime, Arturo; Blanco, José Miguel; Domínguez, César; Sánchez, Ana; Heras, Jónathan; Usandizaga, Imanol

2016-01-01

Different learning methods such as project-based learning, spiral learning and peer assessment have been implemented in science disciplines with different outcomes. This paper presents a proposal for a project management course in the context of a computer science degree. Our proposal combines three well-known methods: project-based learning,…

3. Creating a Project-Based Learning Environment to Improve Project Management Skills of Graduate Students

Arantes do Amaral, Joao Alberto; Gonçalves, Paulo; Hess, Aurélio

2015-01-01

This article describes the project-based learning environment created to support project management graduate courses. The paper will focus on the learning context and procedures followed for 13 years, in 47 project-based learning MBA courses, involving approximately 1,400 students and 34 community partners.

4. Investigating Impacts of Alternative Crop Market Scenarios on Land Use Change with an Agent-Based Model

Deng Ding

2015-11-01

Full Text Available We developed an agent-based model (ABM to simulate farmers’ decisions on crop type and fertilizer application in response to commodity and biofuel crop prices. Farm profit maximization constrained by farmers’ profit expectations for land committed to biofuel crop production was used as the decision rule. Empirical parameters characterizing farmers’ profit expectations were derived from an agricultural landowners and operators survey and integrated in the ABM. The integration of crop production cost models and the survey information in the ABM is critical to producing simulations that can provide realistic insights into agricultural land use planning and policy making. Model simulations were run with historical market prices and alternative market scenarios for corn price, soybean to corn price ratio, switchgrass price, and switchgrass to corn stover ratio. The results of the comparison between simulated cropland percentage and crop rotations with satellite-based land cover data suggest that farmers may be underestimating the effects that continuous corn production has on yields. The simulation results for alternative market scenarios based on a survey of agricultural land owners and operators in the Clear Creek Watershed in eastern Iowa show that farmers see cellulosic biofuel feedstock production in the form of perennial grasses or corn stover as a more risky enterprise than their current crop production systems, likely because of market and production risks and lock in effects. As a result farmers do not follow a simple farm-profit maximization rule.

5. Project management in mine actions using Multi-Criteria-Analysis-based decision support system

2014-12-01

Full Text Available In this paper, a Web-based Decision Support System (Web DSS, that supports humanitarian demining operations and restoration of mine-contaminated areas, is presented. The financial shortage usually triggers a need for priority setting in Project Management in Mine actions. As part of the FP7 Project TIRAMISU, a specialized Web DSS has been developed to achieve a fully transparent priority setting process. It allows stakeholders and donors to actively join the decision making process using a user-friendly and intuitive Web application. The main advantage of this Web DSS is its unique way of managing a mine action project using Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA, namely the PROMETHEE method, in order to select priorities for demining actions. The developed Web DSS allows decision makers to use several predefined scenarios (different criteria weights or to develop their own, so it allows project managers to compare different demining possibilities with ease.

6. Model based systems engineering (MBSE) applied to Radio Aurora Explorer (RAX) CubeSat mission operational scenarios

Spangelo, S. C.; Cutler, J.; Anderson, L.; Fosse, E.; Cheng, L.; Yntema, R.; Bajaj, M.; Delp, C.; Cole, B.; Soremekum, G.; Kaslow, D.

Small satellites are more highly resource-constrained by mass, power, volume, delivery timelines, and financial cost relative to their larger counterparts. Small satellites are operationally challenging because subsystem functions are coupled and constrained by the limited available commodities (e.g. data, energy, and access times to ground resources). Furthermore, additional operational complexities arise because small satellite components are physically integrated, which may yield thermal or radio frequency interference. In this paper, we extend our initial Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) framework developed for a small satellite mission by demonstrating the ability to model different behaviors and scenarios. We integrate several simulation tools to execute SysML-based behavior models, including subsystem functions and internal states of the spacecraft. We demonstrate utility of this approach to drive the system analysis and design process. We demonstrate applicability of the simulation environment to capture realistic satellite operational scenarios, which include energy collection, the data acquisition, and downloading to ground stations. The integrated modeling environment enables users to extract feasibility, performance, and robustness metrics. This enables visualization of both the physical states (e.g. position, attitude) and functional states (e.g. operating points of various subsystems) of the satellite for representative mission scenarios. The modeling approach presented in this paper offers satellite designers and operators the opportunity to assess the feasibility of vehicle and network parameters, as well as the feasibility of operational schedules. This will enable future missions to benefit from using these models throughout the full design, test, and fly cycle. In particular, vehicle and network parameters and schedules can be verified prior to being implemented, during mission operations, and can also be updated in near real-time with oper

7. A Cloud Robotics Based Service for Managing RPAS in Emergency, Rescue and Hazardous Scenarios

Silvagni, Mario; Chiaberge, Marcello; Sanguedolce, Claudio; Dara, Gianluca

2016-04-01

Cloud robotics and cloud services are revolutionizing not only the ICT world but also the robotics industry, giving robots more computing capabilities, storage and connection bandwidth while opening new scenarios that blend the physical to the digital world. In this vision, new IT architectures are required to manage robots, retrieve data from them and create services to interact with users. Among all the robots this work is mainly focused on flying robots, better known as drones, UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) or RPAS (Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems). The cloud robotics approach shifts the concept of having a single local "intelligence" for every single UAV, as a unique device that carries out onboard all the computation and storage processes, to a more powerful "centralized brain" located in the cloud. This breakthrough opens new scenarios where UAVs are agents, relying on remote servers for most of their computational load and data storage, creating a network of devices where they can share knowledge and information. Many applications, using UAVs, are growing as interesting and suitable devices for environment monitoring. Many services can be build fetching data from UAVs, such as telemetry, video streaming, pictures or sensors data; once. These services, part of the IT architecture, can be accessed via web by other devices or shared with other UAVs. As test cases of the proposed architecture, two examples are reported. In the first one a search and rescue or emergency management, where UAVs are required for monitoring intervention, is shown. In case of emergency or aggression, the user requests the emergency service from the IT architecture, providing GPS coordinates and an identification number. The IT architecture uses a UAV (choosing among the available one according to distance, service status, etc.) to reach him/her for monitoring and support operations. In the meantime, an officer will use the service to see the current position of the UAV, its

8. Future waste treatment and energy systems--examples of joint scenarios.

Münster, M; Finnveden, G; Wenzel, H

2013-11-01

Development and use of scenarios for large interdisciplinary projects is a complicated task. This article provides practical examples of how it has been carried out in two projects addressing waste management and energy issues respectively. Based on experiences from the two projects, recommendations are made for an approach concerning development of scenarios in projects dealing with both waste management and energy issues. Recommendations are given to develop and use overall scenarios for the project and leave room for sub-scenarios in parts of the project. Combining different types of scenarios is recommended, too, in order to adapt to the methods and tools of different disciplines, such as developing predictive scenarios with general equilibrium tools and analysing explorative scenarios with energy system analysis tools. Furthermore, as marginals identified in differing future background systems determine the outcomes of consequential life cycle assessments (LCAs), it is considered advisable to develop and use explorative external scenarios based on possible marginals as a framework for consequential LCAs. This approach is illustrated using an on-going Danish research project.

9. Project-based knowledge in organizing open innovation

Comacchio, Anna; Pizzi, Claudio

2014-01-01

Enriching understanding of the current theoretical debate on project-based open innovation, ‘Project-based Knowledge in Organizing Open Innovation’ draws on innovation management literature and knowledge-based perspectives to investigate the relationship between knowledge development at project level and the strategic organization of open innovation. Addressing the still open issue of how the firm level should be complemented by studies at the project level of analysis, this book provides theoretical and empirical arguments on the advantages of a more fine-grained level of analysis to understand how firms organize their innovation processes across boundaries. The book also addresses the emerging interest in the management literature on project-based organizations, and on the relevance of project forms of organizing in a knowledge-based economy. Through field research in different industrial settings , this book provides empirical evidence on how firms design open innovation project-by-project and it will ...

10. The effects of scenario-based communication training on nurses' communication competence and self-efficacy and myocardial infarction knowledge.

Hsu, Li-Ling; Huang, Ya-Hsuan; Hsieh, Suh-Ing

2014-06-01

The aim of the study was to determine the effects of a simulated communication training course on nurses' communication competence, self-efficacy, communication performance, myocardial infarction knowledge, and general satisfaction with their learning experience. A randomized controlled trial was conducted with a pre-test and two post-tests. The experimental group underwent simulated communication training course and the control group received a case-based communication training course. The experimental group made more significant improvement in competence and self-efficacy in communication from pre-test to the second post-test than the control group. Although both groups' satisfaction with their learning experience significantly increased from the first post-test to the second post-test, the experimental group was found to be more satisfied with their learning experience than the control group. No significant differences in communication performance and myocardial infarction knowledge between the two groups were identified. Scenario-based communication training can be more fully incorporated into in-service education for nurses to boost their competence and self-efficacy in communication and enhance their communication performance in myocardial infarction patient care. Introduction of real-life communication scenarios through multimedia in communication education could make learners more motivated to practice communication, hence leading to improved communication capacity. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

11. Exposure scenarios for workers.

Marquart, Hans; Northage, Christine; Money, Chris

2007-12-01

The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate considerations of both human health and the environment. Specific aspects are relevant for worker exposure. Gathering information on the uses of the chemical is an important step in developing an Exposure Scenario. In-house information at manufacturers is an important source. Downstream users can contribute information through direct contact or through their associations. Relatively simple approaches (Tier 1 tools, such as the ECETOC Targeted Risk Assessment and the model EASE) can be used to develop broad Exposure Scenarios that cover many use situations. These approaches rely on the categorisation of just a few determinants, including only a small number of risk management measures. Such approaches have a limited discriminatory power and are rather conservative. When the hazard of the substance or the complexity of the exposure situation require a more in-depth approach, further development of the Exposure Scenarios with Tier 2 approaches is needed. Measured data sets of worker exposure are very valuable in a Tier 2 approach. Some downstream user associations have attempted to build Exposure Scenarios based on measured data sets. Generic Tier 2 tools for developing Exposure Scenarios do not exist yet. To enable efficient development of the worker exposure part of Exposure Scenarios a further development of Tier 1 and Tier 2 tools is needed. Special attention should be given to user friendliness and to the validity (boundaries) of the approaches. The development of standard worker exposure descriptions or full Exposure Scenarios by downstream user branches in cooperation with manufacturers and importers is recommended.

12. Knowledge Governance in Project-Based Organizations

Pemsel, Sofia; Wiewiora, Anna; Müller, Ralf

a definition of KG in PBOs, a conceptual framework to investigate KG and a methodological framework for empirical inquiry into KG in PBO settings. Our definition highlights the contingent nature of KG processes in relation to their organizational context. The conceptual framework addresses macro- and micro......This paper conceptualizes knowledge governance (KG) in project-based organizations (PBOs) and its methodological approaches for empirical investigation. Three key contributions towards a multi-faceted view of KG and an understanding of KG in PBOs are advanced. These contributions include......-level elements of KG and their interaction. The methodological framework proposes five different research approaches, structured by differentiation and integration of various ontological and epistemological stances. Together these contributions provide a novel platform for understanding KG in PBOs and developing...

13. A Usability and Learnability Case Study of Glass Flight Deck Interfaces and Pilot Interactions through Scenario-based Training

De Cino, Thomas J., II

In the aviation industry, digitally produced and presented flight, navigation, and aircraft information is commonly referred to as glass flight decks. Glass flight decks are driven by computer-based subsystems and have long been a part of military and commercial aviation sectors. Over the past 15 years, the General Aviation (GA) sector of the aviation industry has become a recent beneficiary of the rapid advancement of computer-based glass flight deck (GFD) systems. While providing the GA pilot considerable enhancements in the quality of information about the status and operations of the aircraft, training pilots on the use of glass flight decks is often delivered with traditional methods (e.g. textbooks, PowerPoint presentations, user manuals, and limited computer-based training modules). These training methods have been reported as less than desirable in learning to use the glass flight deck interface. Difficulties in achieving a complete understanding of functional and operational characteristics of the GFD systems, acquiring a full understanding of the interrelationships of the varied subsystems, and handling the wealth of flight information provided have been reported. Documented pilot concerns of poor user experience and satisfaction, and problems with the learning the complex and sophisticated interface of the GFD are additional issues with current pilot training approaches. A case study was executed to explore ways to improve training using GFD systems at a Midwestern aviation university. The researcher investigated if variations in instructional systems design and training methods for learning glass flight deck technology would affect the perceptions and attitudes of pilots of the learnability (an attribute of usability) of the glass flight deck interface. Specifically, this study investigated the effectiveness of scenario-based training (SBT) methods to potentially improve pilot knowledge and understanding of a GFD system, and overall pilot user

14. 24 CFR 990.275 - Project-based management (PBM).

2010-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 4 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Project-based management (PBM). 990... URBAN DEVELOPMENT THE PUBLIC HOUSING OPERATING FUND PROGRAM Asset Management § 990.275 Project-based... of rental housing at the project level. Under PBM, these property management services are arranged...

15. Seismic and Tsunami Waveform Simulation based on Dynamic Rupture Scenarios: Anticipated Nankai-Tonankai Earthquakes, Southwest Japan

Saito, T.; Fukuyama, E.; Kim, S.

2016-12-01

Rupture scenarios of anticipated huge earthquakes based on earthquake physics and observational records should be useful for the hazard evaluation of future disastrous earthquakes. Hok et al. (2011, JGR) proposed possible dynamic rupture scenarios of anticipated Nankai-Tonankai huge earthquakes, southwest Japan using estimated slip deficit distribution and an appropriate fault friction law. These scenarios are quite useful to study the details of the wave propagation as well as potential earthquake and tsunami hazard (e.g. Kim et al. 2016, EPS). The objective in this study is to synthesize seismic and tsunami waveforms of the anticipated huge earthquakes, which could be useful for the future hazard assessment. We propose a method of synthesizing the waveforms, in particular, in the region of offshore focal area where seismic waves, ocean acoustic waves, and tsunamis simultaneously exist, which makes the wavefield very complicated. We calculated the seismic and tsunami waveforms caused by a dynamic rupture of huge earthquakes (Mw 8.5) southwestern Japan. There are two kinds of tsunami observations: ocean bottom pressure gauges detect tsunami as pressure change at the sea bottom and GPS tsunami gauges measure tsunami as vertical displacement at the sea surface. Our simulation results indicated that both tsunami records are significantly contaminated by seismic waves in a few minutes after the earthquake occurrence. The tsunami and seismic waves have different excitation mechanisms: seismic wave excitation strongly depends on the time scale of the rupture (moment rate), while tsunami excitation is determined by the static parameters (fault geometry and seismic moment). Therefore, for a reliable tsunami prediction, it is important to analyze observed tsunami records excluding the seismic waves that behave like tsunami near the source area.

16. Greenhouse gas emissions from different municipal solid waste management scenarios in China: Based on carbon and energy flow analysis.

Liu, Yili; Sun, Weixin; Liu, Jianguo

2017-10-01

Waste management is a major source of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and many opportunities exist to reduce these emissions. To identify the GHG emissions from waste management in China, the characteristics of MSW and the current and future treatment management strategies, five typical management scenarios were modeled by EaseTech software following the principles of life cycle inventory and analyzed based on the carbon and energy flows. Due to the high organic fraction (50-70%) and moisture content (>50%) of Chinese municipal solid waste (MSW), the net GHG emissions in waste management had a significant difference from the developed countries. It was found that the poor landfill gas (LFG) collection efficiency and low carbon storage resulted landfilling with flaring and landfilling with biogas recovery scenarios were the largest GHG emissions (192 and 117 kgCO2-Eq/t, respectively). In contrast, incineration had the best energy recovery rate (19%), and, by grid emissions substitution, led to a substantial decrease in net GHG emissions (-124 kgCO2-Eq/t). Due to the high energy consumption in operation, the unavoidable leakage of CH4 and N2O in treatment, and the further release of CH4 in disposing of the digested residue or composted product, the scenarios with biological treatment of the organic fractions after sorting, such as composting or anaerobic digestion (AD), did not lead to the outstanding GHG reductions (emissions of 32 and -36 kgCO2-Eq/t, respectively) as expected. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

17. Developing a CBA Methodology for the Scenario-Based Land-Use Impact Assessment of Proposed Rail Investments in the Leipzig Region

Ustaoglu, Eda; Williams, Brndan; Petrov, Laura Oana

2012-01-01

This paper develops a methodological approach to be utilised for the evaluation of transport-land-use impacts of rapid rail investments in the Leipzig Region with the potential for this approach to be used for other European regions. Various land development scenarios are generated from the MOLAND...... Model applications. The land-use scenarios considered in this research are a baseline scenario of dispersed development and an alternative scenario of more compact urban developments associated with potential rapid rail provisions in the Leipzig Region. The appraisal of transport-land-use relationships...... is subject to the use of economic indicators and can be evaluated based on alternative land development scenarios developed for the Leipzig Area. In this context, key elements of a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) approach will be developed for the evaluation of potential costs of urban rail provisions with its...

18. Coffee Beverage Quality Assessment Based on ETA/CPTEC-HadCM3 Model (A1B-IPCC/SRES Scenario), Southeastern Brazil

Giarolla, A.; Resende, N.; Chou, S. C.; Tavares, P. S.; Rodrigues, D. C.

2012-04-01

Environmental factors influence the coffee beverage quality and air temperature has a significant importance in this process. The grain maturation occurs very quickly in regions that present high temperatures and sometimes there is not enough time to complete all this phase adequately. In the other hand, with mild temperatures, the grain maturation occurs more slowly and it promotes a better quality beverage. The aim of this study was to assess the coffee beverage quality in the southeastern Brazil, based on climate projections using the Eta-CPTEC regional model driven by four members of an ensemble of the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Coupled climate model (HadCM3). The global model ensemble was run over the 21st century according to IPCC SRES, A1B emissions scenario. Each ensemble member presented different climate sensitivity in the analysis. The Eta-CPTEC-HadCM3 model was configured with a 40-km grid size and was run over the period of 1961-90 to represent a baseline climate, and over the period of 2011-2100 to simulate possible future changes and the effects on the coffee beverage quality. A coffee beverage quality classification, which depends on the annual air temperature proposed by Bressani (2007) and also, a quality coffee beverage sensory classification, based on Camargo and Cortez (1998) were considered in this study. An evaluation of the systematic errors (BIAS) for each member for the period from 1961 to 1990 was made. The results presented by Eta/CPTEC-HadCM3 model indicated that in the case of an occurrence of A1B emission scenario, the coffee beverage quality could be affected in this region due to the fact that the flavor may become stronger and unpleasant caused by rising air temperatures. The BIAS evaluation and subsequent errors removal demonstrated improvement in the scenarios simulations. A short review concerning agronomic techniques to mitigate extreme meteorological events or global warming on coffee crop based on Camargo (2010) also is

19. A scenario-based verification technique to assess the compatibility of collaborative business processes

De Backer, M.; Snoeck, M.; Monsieur, G.; Lemahieu, W.; Dedene, G.

2009-01-01

Successful E-Business is based on seamless collaborative business processes. Each partner in the collaboration specifies its own rules and interaction preconditions. The verification of the compatibility of collaborative business processes, based on local and global views, is a complex task, which i

20. Climate protection in Germany. Final report on the research project policy scenarios III; Klimaschutz in Deutschland bis 2030. Endbericht zum Forschungsvorhaben Politikszenarien III

Diekmann, Jochen; Hopf, Rainer; Ziesing, Hans-Joachim [Deutsches Institut fuer Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW), Berlin (DE)] (and others)

2005-01-15

One goal of the study was the evaluation of single greenhouse gas reduction measures which are part of the national climate protection program initiated in the year 2000 by the German Government. Within the project the potentials of greenhouse gas emissions reduction of single measures have been quantified up to the year 2010. Taken all the impacts of the measures into account, it seems to be possible to reduce the overall greenhouse gas emissions by nearly 20 % by the year 2010. 70 % of the reduction is caused by CO2 emissions reduction and 30 % by a reduction of other non-CO2 emissions. It should be emphasised that 38 million tonnes of CO2 can be reduced by forcing the use of renewable energies. However, to achieve the German's ''burden sharing'' goal of a 21 % emissions reduction by the year 2010 additional measures will be necessary. To analyse emissions reduction strategies for a long-term view (up to 2030) additional scenarios have been developed. The analysis shows that there are still technical options to reduce CO2 emissions by 30 to 40 % by the year 2030. In the case of such ambitious reduction targets measures in all sectors of the energy system have to be implemented. The costs of the different mitigation strategies are strongly correlated with the framework of energy and climate protection policies. (orig.)

1. Exploring an Ecologically Sustainable Scheme for Landscape Restoration of Abandoned Mine Land: Scenario-Based Simulation Integrated Linear Programming and CLUE-S Model

Zhang, Liping; Zhang, Shiwen; Huang, Yajie; Cao, Meng; Huang, Yuanfang; Zhang, Hongyan

2016-01-01

Understanding abandoned mine land (AML) changes during land reclamation is crucial for reusing damaged land resources and formulating sound ecological restoration policies. This study combines the linear programming (LP) model and the CLUE-S model to simulate land-use dynamics in the Mentougou District (Beijing, China) from 2007 to 2020 under three reclamation scenarios, that is, the planning scenario based on the general land-use plan in study area (scenario 1), maximal comprehensive benefits (scenario 2), and maximal ecosystem service value (scenario 3). Nine landscape-scale graph metrics were then selected to describe the landscape characteristics. The results show that the coupled model presented can simulate the dynamics of AML effectively and the spatially explicit transformations of AML were different. New cultivated land dominates in scenario 1, while construction land and forest land account for major percentages in scenarios 2 and 3, respectively. Scenario 3 has an advantage in most of the selected indices as the patches combined most closely. To conclude, reclaiming AML by transformation into more forest can reduce the variability and maintain the stability of the landscape ecological system in study area. These findings contribute to better mapping AML dynamics and providing policy support for the management of AML. PMID:27023575

2. Exploring an Ecologically Sustainable Scheme for Landscape Restoration of Abandoned Mine Land: Scenario-Based Simulation Integrated Linear Programming and CLUE-S Model.

Zhang, Liping; Zhang, Shiwen; Huang, Yajie; Cao, Meng; Huang, Yuanfang; Zhang, Hongyan

2016-03-24

Understanding abandoned mine land (AML) changes during land reclamation is crucial for reusing damaged land resources and formulating sound ecological restoration policies. This study combines the linear programming (LP) model and the CLUE-S model to simulate land-use dynamics in the Mentougou District (Beijing, China) from 2007 to 2020 under three reclamation scenarios, that is, the planning scenario based on the general land-use plan in study area (scenario 1), maximal comprehensive benefits (scenario 2), and maximal ecosystem service value (scenario 3). Nine landscape-scale graph metrics were then selected to describe the landscape characteristics. The results show that the coupled model presented can simulate the dynamics of AML effectively and the spatially explicit transformations of AML were different. New cultivated land dominates in scenario 1, while construction land and forest land account for major percentages in scenarios 2 and 3, respectively. Scenario 3 has an advantage in most of the selected indices as the patches combined most closely. To conclude, reclaiming AML by transformation into more forest can reduce the variability and maintain the stability of the landscape ecological system in study area. These findings contribute to better mapping AML dynamics and providing policy support for the management of AML.

3. CONSIDERATION OF RECOMMENDATIONS AT INNOVATION-BASED PROJECTS RESULTS FORECASTING

2012-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to highlight the importance of considering the factor of word-of-mouth communications between clients when analyzing the innovation-based projects. The paper offers the methodology of evaluating the importance of such analyses for different innovative projects. Results of the research are in the specifying the demand forecasting at innovation-based projects outcomes forecasting. Practical implications lie at the evaluation of such projects, specially by small and ...

4. CONSIDERATION OF RECOMMENDATIONS AT INNOVATION-BASED PROJECTS RESULTS FORECASTING

2012-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to highlight the importance of considering the factor of word-of-mouth communications between clients when analyzing the innovation-based projects. The paper offers the methodology of evaluating the importance of such analyses for different innovative projects. Results of the research are in the specifying the demand forecasting at innovation-based projects outcomes forecasting. Practical implications lie at the evaluation of such projects, specially by small and ...

5. Scenarios Analysis of the Energies’ Consumption and Carbon Emissions in China Based on a Dynamic CGE Model

Yuanying Chi

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the development trends and variation characteristics of China’s economy, energy consumption and carbon emissions from 2007 to 2030, and the impacts on China’s economic growth, energy consumption, and carbon emissions under the carbon tax policy scenarios, based on the dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE model. The results show that during the simulation period, China’s economy will keep a relatively high growth rate, but the growth rate will slow down under the benchmark scenario. The energy consumption intensity and the carbon emissions intensity per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP will continually decrease. The energy consumption structure and industrial structure will gradually optimize. With the economic growth, the total energy consumption will constantly increase, and the carbon dioxide emissions are still large, and the situation of energy-saving and emission-reduction is still serious. The carbon tax is very important for energy-saving and emission-reduction and energy consumption structure optimization, and the effect of the carbon tax on GDP is small. If the carbon tax could be levied and the enterprise income tax could be reduced at the same time, the dual goals of reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions and increasing the GDP growth can be achieved. Improving the technical progress level of clean power while implementing a carbon tax policy is very meaningful to optimize energy consumption structure and reduce the carbon emissions, but it has some offsetting effect to reduce energy consumption.

6. A triangular fuzzy TOPSIS-based approach for the application of water technologies in different emergency water supply scenarios.

Qu, Jianhua; Meng, Xianlin; Yu, Huan; You, Hong

2016-09-01

Because of the increasing frequency and intensity of unexpected natural disasters, providing safe drinking water for the affected population following a disaster has become a global challenge of growing concern. An onsite water supply technology that is portable, mobile, or modular is a more suitable and sustainable solution for the victims than transporting bottled water. In recent years, various water techniques, such as membrane-assisted technologies, have been proposed and successfully implemented in many places. Given the diversity of techniques available, the current challenge is how to scientifically identify the optimum options for different disaster scenarios. Hence, a fuzzy triangular-based multi-criteria, group decision-making tool was developed in this research. The approach was then applied to the selection of the most appropriate water technologies corresponding to the different emergency water supply scenarios. The results show this tool capable of facilitating scientific analysis in the evaluation and selection of emergency water technologies for enduring security drinking water supply in disaster relief.

7. Multi-Role Project (MRP): A New Project-Based Learning Method for STEM

Warin, Bruno; Talbi, Omar; Kolski, Christophe; Hoogstoel, Frédéric

2016-01-01

This paper presents the "Multi-Role Project" method (MRP), a broadly applicable project-based learning method, and describes its implementation and evaluation in the context of a Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) course. The MRP method is designed around a meta-principle that considers the project learning activity…

8. To Cultivate Outstanding Software Engineer Based on Project-based Learning

LI Dong; MA Peiqun; LIU Shu

2012-01-01

This thesis sketches the connotation of project-based learning and introduces the basis on which project-based learning is practiced and applied in school of software as well as the plan of further practicing project-based learning. At the same time, this thesis also discusses application of project-based learning in "education and cultivation plan of excellent engineer".

9. Future Projection of Storm Surge at Tokyo Bay under RCP 8.5 Scenario by Meteorological-Ocean-Tide Coupled Model

Iwamoto, T.; Nakamura, R.; Takagawa, T.; Shibayama, T.

2016-12-01

It is clearly valuable to accomplish well-reproduced storm surge model and conduct future projection for disaster prevention. In this study, the reproducibility of Meteorological-Ocean-Tide coupled model was validated by simulating typhoon Roke (2011) storm surge, which was recorded as the highest anomaly (119cm) at Tokyo tide station (JMA) in Tokyo Bay over the last 10 years. Furthermore, the future projection (2050) under global warming scenario (RCP8.5) was conducted. The coupled model was composed of 3 models; ARW-WRFV3 (Skamarock et al., 2008), FVCOM (Chen et al., 2011) and WXTide32. WRF firstly calculated downscaled meteorological field by using FiNal anaLysis (FNL) as initial/boundary (I/B) condition. In this calculation, single layer urban canopy model (Kusaka et al., 2001) and topography data from SRTM3 (90m mesh) and GSI (50m mesh) were applied. Then the output was used as I/B condition to FVCOM, which calculated storm surge. Finally tide level was calculated by adding storm surge to astronomical tide calculated by WXTide32. For 2050 case, sea surface temperature (SST) from 26 GCM under RCP8.5 was used for constructing pseudo global warming meteorological fields. In details, ensemble average of SST variation between 2006-2015 and 2041-2060 was added to FNL's SST by following Oya et al (2016). In this case, calculating astronomical tide is omitted due to the limitation of WXTide32. The reproduced result of typhoon Roke shows that the difference of maximum tide level (first peak) to the observation is less than 10cm, the difference of second peak is about 50cm. The future projection result shows that the increase of storm surge at Tokyo tide station is about 20cm and that at Funabashi is about 30cm. This intensification is mainly caused by wind speed increment, since the variation of low pressure due to higher SST is relatively small. Moreover, Funabashi is located in front of the open space at inner part of Tokyo Bay, Tokyo tide station is similar however

10. A community-based organization: the Las Mercedes Project.

Murphy, John W

2012-01-01

Using the Las Mercedes Project as an example, the aim of this article is to discuss the philosophy and practice of community-based projects. At the core of such projects is a shift in understanding the nature of community. A community, in this case, represents a reality that persons construct that determines the character of rules, norms, and the focus and style of interventions. Additionally, community-based organizations, such as the Las Mercedes Project, are fully participatory, decentered, and carry the imprint of a community's members. Community-based projects, in this regard, improve the likelihood of creating successful interventions.

11. Scenario-based Requirements Elicitation in a Pain-teletreatment Application

Widya, I.A.; Bults, Richard G.A.; Huis in 't Veld, M.H.A.; Vollenbroek-Hutten, Miriam Marie Rosé; Shishkov, Boris; Cordeiro, J.; Ranchordas, A.

2009-01-01

This paper proposes a way to elicit requirements in the domain of eHealth, in particular telemedicine treatment, that is in alignment with the evidence based working practice in medicine. In collaboration with ICT developers, medical professionals co-shape the intended system, which has to support

12. An Innovative Interactive Modeling Tool to Analyze Scenario-Based Physician Workforce Supply and Demand

Gupta, Saurabh; Black-Schaffer, W. Stephen; Crawford, James M.; Gross, David; Karcher, Donald S.; Kaufman, Jill; Knapman, Doug; Prystowsky, Michael B.; Wheeler, Thomas M.; Bean, Sarah; Kumar, Paramhans; Sharma, Raghav; Chamoli, Vaibhav; Ghai, Vikrant; Gogia, Vineet; Weintraub, Sally; Cohen, Michael B.

2015-01-01

Effective physician workforce management requires that the various organizations comprising the House of Medicine be able to assess their current and future workforce supply. This information has direct relevance to funding of graduate medical education. We describe a dynamic modeling tool that examines how individual factors and practice variables can be used to measure and forecast the supply and demand for existing and new physician services. The system we describe, while built to analyze the pathologist workforce, is sufficiently broad and robust for use in any medical specialty. Our design provides a computer-based software model populated with data from surveys and best estimates by specialty experts about current and new activities in the scope of practice. The model describes the steps needed and data required for analysis of supply and demand. Our modeling tool allows educators and policy makers, in addition to physician specialty organizations, to assess how various factors may affect demand (and supply) of current and emerging services. Examples of factors evaluated include types of professional services (3 categories with 16 subcategories), service locations, elements related to the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, new technologies, aging population, and changing roles in capitated, value-based, and team-based systems of care. The model also helps identify where physicians in a given specialty will likely need to assume new roles, develop new expertise, and become more efficient in practice to accommodate new value-based payment models. PMID:28725751

13. An Innovative Interactive Modeling Tool to Analyze Scenario-Based Physician Workforce Supply and Demand

Saurabh Gupta BPharm

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Effective physician workforce management requires that the various organizations comprising the House of Medicine be able to assess their current and future workforce supply. This information has direct relevance to funding of graduate medical education. We describe a dynamic modeling tool that examines how individual factors and practice variables can be used to measure and forecast the supply and demand for existing and new physician services. The system we describe, while built to analyze the pathologist workforce, is sufficiently broad and robust for use in any medical specialty. Our design provides a computer-based software model populated with data from surveys and best estimates by specialty experts about current and new activities in the scope of practice. The model describes the steps needed and data required for analysis of supply and demand. Our modeling tool allows educators and policy makers, in addition to physician specialty organizations, to assess how various factors may affect demand (and supply of current and emerging services. Examples of factors evaluated include types of professional services (3 categories with 16 subcategories, service locations, elements related to the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, new technologies, aging population, and changing roles in capitated, value-based, and team-based systems of care. The model also helps identify where physicians in a given specialty will likely need to assume new roles, develop new expertise, and become more efficient in practice to accommodate new value-based payment models.

14. Using a Flexible Skill-Based Approach to Recognize Objects in Industrial Scenarios

Andersen, Rasmus Skovgaard; Schou, Casper; Damgaard, Jens Skov

2016-01-01

Traditional industrial robots are highly efficient and precise and therefore well suited for carrying out simple, repetitive tasks. They are, however, complicated and time consuming to setup and re-program to perform new tasks. Skill-based programming attempts to reduce both the required time as ...

15. Supply Chain Simulator: A Scenario-Based Educational Tool to Enhance Student Learning

Siddiqui, Atiq; Khan, Mehmood; Akhtar, Sohail

2008-01-01

Simulation-based educational products are excellent set of illustrative tools that proffer features like visualization of the dynamic behavior of a real system, etc. Such products have great efficacy in education and are known to be one of the first-rate student centered learning methodologies. These products allow students to practice skills such…

16. Supply Chain Simulator: A Scenario-Based Educational Tool to Enhance Student Learning

Siddiqui, Atiq; Khan, Mehmood; Akhtar, Sohail

2008-01-01

Simulation-based educational products are excellent set of illustrative tools that proffer features like visualization of the dynamic behavior of a real system, etc. Such products have great efficacy in education and are known to be one of the first-rate student centered learning methodologies. These products allow students to practice skills such…

17. Deploying wildland fire suppression resources with a scenario-based standard response model

Robert G. Haight; Jeremy S. Fried

2007-01-01

Wildland fire managers deploy suppression resources to bases and dispatch them to fires to maximize the percentage of fires that are successfully contained before unacceptable costs and losses occur. Deployment is made with budget constraints and uncertainty about the daily number, location, and intensity of fires, all of which affect initial-attack success. To address...

18. Scenario forecasting changes in the water balance components of the Olenek and Iindigirka river basins due to possible climate change

Ye. M. Gusev

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Scenario projections of the dynamics of meteorological characteristics for the basins of the Olenek and Indigirka rivers (the Republic of Sakha in the XXI century have been obtained for four IPCC global climate change scenarios of SRES family which correspond to specified scenarios of economic, technological, political, and demographic development of human civilization. The projections have been used to calculate scenarios of possible changes in water balance components for the basins under consideration up to the year of 2063. The calculation procedure involves a physically-based model for heat and mass exchange between the land surface and the atmosphere SWAP and climate scenario generator MAGICC/SCENGEN.

19. Using a Flexible Skill-Based Approach to Recognize Objects in Industrial Scenarios

Andersen, Rasmus Skovgaard; Schou, Casper; Damgaard, Jens Skov

2016-01-01

as well as the need for highly specialized staff for setting up modern collaborative robots. This paper proposes a skill for recognition and classification of different objects. The skill is parameterized using manual kinesthetic teaching, and machine learning based on SIFT features, Bag of Words, and SVM......Traditional industrial robots are highly efficient and precise and therefore well suited for carrying out simple, repetitive tasks. They are, however, complicated and time consuming to setup and re-program to perform new tasks. Skill-based programming attempts to reduce both the required time...... is used to classify objects. A user study with 20 test participants shows that robotics novices after only a short introduction are able to instruct the skill and combine it with other skills (pick and place) to program a complete task....

20. On Improving the Reliability of Distribution Networks Based on Investment Scenarios Using Reference Networks

Kawahara, Koji

Distribution systems are inherent monopolies and therefore these have generally been regulated in order to protect customers and to ensure cost-effective operation. In the UK this is one of the functions of OFGEM (Office of Gas and Electricity Markets). Initially the regulation was based on the value of assets but there is a trend nowadays towards performance-based regulation. In order to achieve this, a methodology is needed that enables the reliability performance associated with alternative investment strategies to be compared with the investment cost of these strategies. At present there is no accepted approach for such assessments. Building on the concept of reference networks proposed in Refs. (1), (2), this paper describes how these networks can be used to assess the impact that performance driven investment strategies will have on the improvement in reliability indices. The method has been tested using the underground and overhead part of a real system.