WorldWideScience

Sample records for projected regional trends

  1. Importance of ensembles in projecting regional climate trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arritt, Raymond; Daniel, Ariele; Groisman, Pavel

    2016-04-01

    We have performed an ensemble of simulations using RegCM4 to examine the ability to reproduce observed trends in precipitation intensity and to project future changes through the 21st century for the central United States. We created a matrix of simulations over the CORDEX North America domain for 1950-2099 by driving the regional model with two different global models (HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-ESM2M, both for RCP8.5), by performing simulations at both 50 km and 25 km grid spacing, and by using three different convective parameterizations. The result is a set of 12 simulations (two GCMs by two resolutions by three convective parameterizations) that can be used to systematically evaluate the influence of simulation design on predicted precipitation. The two global models were selected to bracket the range of climate sensitivity in the CMIP5 models: HadGEM2-ES has the highest ECS of the CMIP5 models, while GFDL-ESM2M has one of the lowestt. Our evaluation metrics differ from many other RCM studies in that we focus on the skill of the models in reproducing past trends rather than the mean climate state. Trends in frequency of extreme precipitation (defined as amounts exceeding 76.2 mm/day) for most simulations are similar to the observed trend but with notable variations depending on RegCM4 configuration and on the driving GCM. There are complex interactions among resolution, choice of convective parameterization, and the driving GCM that carry over into the future climate projections. We also note that biases in the current climate do not correspond to biases in trends. As an example of these points the Emanuel scheme is consistently "wet" (positive bias in precipitation) yet it produced the smallest precipitation increase of the three convective parameterizations when used in simulations driven by HadGEM2-ES. However, it produced the largest increase when driven by GFDL-ESM2M. These findings reiterate that ensembles using multiple RCM configurations and driving GCMs are

  2. Ischaemic heart disease deaths in Brazil: current trends, regional disparities and future projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baena, Cristina P; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Schio, Nicolle Amboni; Sabbag, Ary Elias; Guarita-Souza, Luiz Cesar; Olandoski, Marcia; Franco, Oscar H; Faria-Neto, José Rocha

    2013-09-01

    To quantify the trend of ischaemic heart disease (IHD) deaths in Brazil during the last decade (2000-2010) for various population characteristics and to forecast the upcoming mortality trends across regions in Brazil until the year 2015. Nationwide comparative observational study. The population studied encompassed all adult residents (≥ 20 years) living in five Brazilian regions between 2000 and 2010. Demographic, economic and mortality data were obtained from Brazilian National Mortality Data System and National Applied Economics Research Institute. Subnotified deaths were redistributed proportionally to IHD deaths. Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) per 100 000 inhabitants, by sex and region, were calculated employing a standard Brazilian population and constructing multivariate regression models to quantify and to project temporal trends. Absolute numbers of death due to IHD and region-specific death rates in Brazil by age and sex. During the study period, 627 786 men and 452 690 women died due to IHD in Brazil. ASMR trends across all regions for men and women converged, driven by a declining trend in the South and Southeast and an opposite incline in the North and Northeast (p < 0.05). Future projections demonstrated potential widening of the observed North-South gap in coming years. The IHD death trend in Brazil has changed from a decline to a stagnant state. However, a significant discrepancy in mortality trends exists between the northern and southern regions, which is likely to widen further. Reappraisal of the public health policies tailored to populations with diverse socioeconomic structures is urgently required.

  3. Regional Trends in Electromobility - Regional Study North America

    OpenAIRE

    Turrentine, Tom; Garas, Dhalia

    2015-01-01

    The subproject “Regional Trends in Electro mobility” aims at identifying and analyzing major trends in the field of electro mobility. The trend analysis will monitor research effort and upcoming technologies, policies, products and market developments in different focus regions around the world continuously to enable a systematic analysis of global trends. The regional trend analysis for electro mobility is a major keystone for the project success and therefore cooperation with...

  4. RCA's regional industrial project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, A.T.

    1988-01-01

    The Regional Cooperation Agreement (RCA) for Research Development and Training Related to Nuclear Science and Technology, formulated under the auspices of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), came into force in June 1972. The overall objective of RCA is to promote technical cooperation among the developing and developed countries in the Asia Pacific region in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy and related technology. Currently, the biggest project under RCA is the Regional Project on the Industrial Applications of Isotopes and Radiation Technology for Asia and the Pacific. The project was established in 1982 for a period of five years and was completed in December 1986. The first phase of the project has generated a high degree of awareness on the industrial potential of isotopes and radiation technology throughout the region; produced a cadre of trained manpower in all areas covered by the project; identified the expertise available in the region; and developed in the region, a unique network of people and institutions involved with the utilization of isotope and radiation technology. A Phase II of the project, which cover all but one of the sub-projects under Phase I, was approved in early 1987 for another five years until 1991. (Nogami, K.)

  5. Alberta air emissions : trends and projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-06-01

    This paper provided a summary of air emissions trends and projections for Alberta. Predicted regional distribution trends and industry sector emissions were presented. Historical and projected emissions included sulfur oxides (SO x ) nitrogen oxide (NO x ), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and ammonia (NH 3 ). Results of the study indicated that carbon monoxide (CO) emissions were decreasing, while VOCs, NO x , SO x , PM 2.5 and NH 3 levels were increasing. Approximately 9 per cent of ammonia emissions were from point sources, while the majority of PM 2.5 emissions were attributed to unpaved roads and construction operations. Agricultural animal operations accounted for most of the VOC source emissions in the region. Increased development of the oil sands industry is contributing to increases in VOC emissions. Increases in NH 3 were attributed to growth in the agricultural sector and the increasing use of confined feeding operations in the region. Results of the study indicated that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Alberta will keep increasing as a result of Alberta's growing economy. It was concluded that emissions from other industrial sectors are also expected to increase. In 2005, Alberta's total GHG emissions were 233 megatonnes of CO 2 equivalent, of which 168 megatonnes were attributed to industry. Results were presented in both graph and tabular formats. 3 tabs., 25 figs

  6. JUVENILE DELINQUENCY: TRENDS (REGIONAL ASPECT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. G. Selezneva

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available he article analyzes the nature and internal structure of various types of crimes in which involved minors. Describes the main social factors contributing to this anomaly in the period of development of society. Investigated the motivation, the system and the types of crimes of minors in the Volgograd region, are the main trends of development of this phenomenon. The study also discusses the theoretical basis of the problem of the influence of economic stability on the species structure of juvenile delinquency. In this study the analysis of various types of deviance minors in different areas of the city of Volgograd. In the process of rapid modernization of communication processes most of today’s youth have not been able to quickly rebuild their behavior. Currently, the value-perception of the adolescents focused on the material benefits in terms of expanded economic interactions. In these conditions, social processes become increasingly removed from humane and spiritual orientations. The effective functioning of society in its interaction based on cooperation and understanding is of great importance to stimulate the positive trends in social sphere in modern Russia. The modern period of development, coupled with a drastic breaking of the foundations of life, the formation of new social relations and institutions and the destruction of the old, inevitably contributes to social tension, the reassessment of social and moral values and development of deviant behavior of minors. The advantages of this study are the involvement of local archives regional committees on Affairs of minors, was first introduced to active scientific revolution, as well as logical structuring and grouping of the main issues related to the dynamics and changes in the species structure of juvenile crime, which allowed us to perform a fairly extensive archive of statistical material. Based on this analysis, the authors made a

  7. Empirical Methods for Detecting Regional Trends and Other Spatial Expressions in Antrim Shale Gas Productivity, with Implications for Improving Resource Projections Using Local Nonparametric Estimation Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.; Attanasi, E.D.

    2012-01-01

    The primary objectives of this research were to (1) investigate empirical methods for establishing regional trends in unconventional gas resources as exhibited by historical production data and (2) determine whether or not incorporating additional knowledge of a regional trend in a suite of previously established local nonparametric resource prediction algorithms influences assessment results. Three different trend detection methods were applied to publicly available production data (well EUR aggregated to 80-acre cells) from the Devonian Antrim Shale gas play in the Michigan Basin. This effort led to the identification of a southeast-northwest trend in cell EUR values across the play that, in a very general sense, conforms to the primary fracture and structural orientations of the province. However, including this trend in the resource prediction algorithms did not lead to improved results. Further analysis indicated the existence of clustering among cell EUR values that likely dampens the contribution of the regional trend. The reason for the clustering, a somewhat unexpected result, is not completely understood, although the geological literature provides some possible explanations. With appropriate data, a better understanding of this clustering phenomenon may lead to important information about the factors and their interactions that control Antrim Shale gas production, which may, in turn, help establish a more general protocol for better estimating resources in this and other shale gas plays. ?? 2011 International Association for Mathematical Geology (outside the USA).

  8. CONTEMPORARY TRENDS IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Argirova

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The modern information society in ever increasing business projects and time limits to achieve the objectives at minimum cost leads to a search for ways to manage them. Today, more and more managers use IT tools for project management, and the term itself is associated with software solutions for the optimization and management of projects in different fields of human activity. The paper examines the main characteristics of project management by means of information technology. Key tasks and processes in the project implementation and management are discussed.

  9. [Internal migration trends and regional dynamics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trabelsi, M

    1992-01-01

    This study concerns aspects of regional development in Tunisia. It specifically considers how economic factors affect income differentials among regions, and ways in which these in turn influence trends in internal migration. The effect of these trends on urbanization is also explored.

  10. D and D projects trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gay, Arnaud

    2012-01-01

    This series of slides presents: 1 - the Various types of needs and types of operations in any D and D project, 2 - the strong variety of nuclear units to dismantle, 3 - the D and D dependence on nuclear operators' strategy (Immediate/Deferred dismantling), 4 - the demand for D and D services with respect to the ageing of the nuclear fleet, 5 - the impacts to come on the D and D environment due to the Fukushima accident, 6 - the geographical dependence of D and D demands, 7 - the different D and D choices from nuclear operators in the supply chain management, 8 - the key levers in a D and D project performance, 9 - Some key competencies in D and D, 10 - Risk management for both clients and suppliers in a D and D project, 11 - AREVA involvement in Fukushima project as a key demonstration of a critical D and D project management

  11. Integrated Project Delivery (IPD Research Trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kahvandi, Z.

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Integrated Project Delivery (IPD is introduced as a vibrant approach to enhance project implementation, having particular position in recent studies among construction researchers. This study analyzes the research trends on the field of IPD to provide an appropriate vision for future researchers in this specialized field. While so far no comprehensive research has been done in this field, this study provides a comprehensive review of existing studies through in-depth literature review method. This research evaluates studies conducted in the field of IPD, which is a basis for future researchers to improve conditions of IPD implementation in different countries. For that this study Using library studies, the trend of researches conducted on various concepts and domains during various years, has been investigated. Future studies can simply use the outputs of this research to shape their research flow on establishing continuing progress of IPD. The data obtained from descriptive analyses are illustrated quantitatively, followed by comprehensive analyses and discussion of the results. Moreover, this study concluded that during recent years, the trend of studies conducted about IPD has increased, particularly articles examined challenges. In the next step, more studies have been performed in the field of construction. Those articles are preferred that have evaluated principles, challenges, and solutions for resolving barriers. Proper IPD implementation facilitates enhanced share of information and early identification of stakeholders through a proper timing as vital keys to realize objectives of the construction projects, reduce risks, and increase the chance of project success.

  12. Managing regional innovation strategy projects

    OpenAIRE

    Wolf, Patricia; Hanisch, Christoph

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a qualitative interview study with 28 RIS project managers that aimed at understanding whether or not this is true in the context of regional innovation and what the specifics of managing regional innovation projects are. In taking up a recent claim for policy intervention studies which allow to “derive precise suggestions for their design and management”.  The study investigated the interrelation between the agility of the management approach and the achievements of RIS p...

  13. Projection display technology and product trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahn, Frederic J.

    1999-05-01

    Major technology and market trends that could generate a 20 billion dollar electronic projector market by 2010 are reviewed in the perspective of recent product introductions. A log linear analysis shows that the light outputs of benchmark transportable data video projectors have increased at a rate of almost 90 percent per year since 1993. The list prices of these same projectors have decreased at a rate of over 40 percent per year. The tradeoffs of light output vs. resolution and weight are illustrated. Recent trends in projector efficacy vs. year are discussed. Lumen output per dollar of list price is shown to be a useful market metric. Continued technical advances and innovations including higher throughput light valve technologies with integrated drivers, brighter light source, field sequential color, integrated- and micro-optical components, and aerospace materials are likely to sustain these trends. The new technologies will enable projection displays for entertainment and computer applications with unprecedented levels of performance, compactness, and cost-effectiveness.

  14. Probability Distribution and Projected Trends of Daily Precipitation in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CAO; Li-Ge; ZHONG; Jun; SU; Bu-Da; ZHAI; Jian-Qing; Macro; GEMMER

    2013-01-01

    Based on observed daily precipitation data of 540 stations and 3,839 gridded data from the high-resolution regional climate model COSMO-Climate Limited-area Modeling(CCLM)for 1961–2000,the simulation ability of CCLM on daily precipitation in China is examined,and the variation of daily precipitation distribution pattern is revealed.By applying the probability distribution and extreme value theory to the projected daily precipitation(2011–2050)under SRES A1B scenario with CCLM,trends of daily precipitation series and daily precipitation extremes are analyzed.Results show that except for the western Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and South China,distribution patterns of the kurtosis and skewness calculated from the simulated and observed series are consistent with each other;their spatial correlation coefcients are above 0.75.The CCLM can well capture the distribution characteristics of daily precipitation over China.It is projected that in some parts of the Jianghuai region,central-eastern Northeast China and Inner Mongolia,the kurtosis and skewness will increase significantly,and precipitation extremes will increase during 2011–2050.The projected increase of maximum daily rainfall and longest non-precipitation period during flood season in the aforementioned regions,also show increasing trends of droughts and floods in the next 40 years.

  15. Canadian snow and sea ice: historical trends and projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mudryk, Lawrence R.; Derksen, Chris; Howell, Stephen; Laliberté, Fred; Thackeray, Chad; Sospedra-Alfonso, Reinel; Vionnet, Vincent; Kushner, Paul J.; Brown, Ross

    2018-04-01

    The Canadian Sea Ice and Snow Evolution (CanSISE) Network is a climate research network focused on developing and applying state of the art observational data to advance dynamical prediction, projections, and understanding of seasonal snow cover and sea ice in Canada and the circumpolar Arctic. Here, we present an assessment from the CanSISE Network on trends in the historical record of snow cover (fraction, water equivalent) and sea ice (area, concentration, type, and thickness) across Canada. We also assess projected changes in snow cover and sea ice likely to occur by mid-century, as simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) suite of Earth system models. The historical datasets show that the fraction of Canadian land and marine areas covered by snow and ice is decreasing over time, with seasonal and regional variability in the trends consistent with regional differences in surface temperature trends. In particular, summer sea ice cover has decreased significantly across nearly all Canadian marine regions, and the rate of multi-year ice loss in the Beaufort Sea and Canadian Arctic Archipelago has nearly doubled over the last 8 years. The multi-model consensus over the 2020-2050 period shows reductions in fall and spring snow cover fraction and sea ice concentration of 5-10 % per decade (or 15-30 % in total), with similar reductions in winter sea ice concentration in both Hudson Bay and eastern Canadian waters. Peak pre-melt terrestrial snow water equivalent reductions of up to 10 % per decade (30 % in total) are projected across southern Canada.

  16. Variations and Trends in Global and Regional Precipitation Based on the 22-year GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project) and Three-year TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) Data Sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adler, R.; Curtis, S.; Huffman, G.; Bolvin, D.; Nelkin, E.

    2001-05-01

    This paper gives an overview of the analysis of global precipitation over the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to study global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in global precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. The global trend analysis must be interpreted carefully, however, because the inhomogeneity of the data set makes detecting a small signal very difficult, especially over this relatively short period. The relation of global (and tropical) total precipitation and ENSO events is quantified with no significant signal when land and ocean are combined. Identifying regional trends in precipitation may be more practical. From 1979 to 2000 the tropics have pattern of regional rainfall trends that has an ENSO-like pattern with features of both the El Nino and La Nina. This feature is related to a possible trend in the frequency of ENSO events (either El Nino or La Nina) over the past 20 years. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The El Nino and La Nina mean anomalies are near mirror images of each other and when combined produce an ENSO signal with significant spatial continuity over large distances. A number of the features are shown to extend into high latitudes. Positive anomalies extend in the Southern Hemisphere (S.H.) from the Pacific southeastward across Chile and Argentina into the south Atlantic Ocean. In the Northern Hemisphere (N.H.) the counterpart feature extends across the southern U.S. and Atlantic Ocean into Europe

  17. Trends for Innovation Business Development in Lviv Region

    OpenAIRE

    Tetyana Skrypko

    2014-01-01

    The Articles highlights trends of small business innovation development at a regional level. Small business innovation structure has been analyzed for Lviv region; interactive procedures have been researched referring to cooperation between the parties interested in its development. The amount of innovation-active small businesses and the number of innovations introduced in Lviv region have been mentioned by innovation trends and types of economic activity. Up-to-date trends in Lviv region co...

  18. Regional Transmission Projects: Finding Solutions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    The Keystone Center

    2005-06-15

    The Keystone Center convened and facilitated a year-long Dialogue on "Regional Transmission Projects: Finding Solutions" to develop recommendations that will help address the difficult and contentious issues related to expansions of regional electric transmission systems that are needed for reliable and economic transmission of power within and across regions. This effort brought together a cross-section of affected stakeholders and thought leaders to address the problem with the collective wisdom of their experience and interests. Transmission owners sat at the table with consumer advocates and environmental organizations. Representatives from regional transmission organizations exchanged ideas with state and federal regulators. Generation developers explored common interests with public power suppliers. Together, the Dialogue participants developed consensus solutions about how to begin unraveling some of the more intractable issues surrounding identification of need, allocation of costs, and reaching consensus on siting issues that can frustrate the development of regional transmission infrastructure. The recommendations fall into three broad categories: 1. Recommendations on appropriate institutional arrangements and processes for achieving regional consensus on the need for new or expanded transmission infrastructure 2. Recommendations on the process for siting of transmission lines 3. Recommendations on the tools needed to support regional planning, cost allocation, and siting efforts. List of Dialogue participants: List of Dialogue Participants: American Electric Power American Transmission Company American Wind Energy Association California ISO Calpine Corporation Cinergy Edison Electric Institute Environmental Defense Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Great River Energy International Transmission Company ISO-New England Iowa Public Utility Board Kanner & Associates Midwest ISO National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners National Association

  19. Regional Assessment of Supplementation Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-10-01

    The Fish and Wildlife Program of the Northwest Power Planning Council (NPPC) prescribes several approaches to achieve its goal of doubling the salmon and steelhead runs of the Columbia River. Among those approaches are habitat restoration, improvements in adult and juvenile passage at dams and artificial propagation. Supplementation will be a major part of the new hatchery programs. The purpose of the Regional Assessment of Supplementation Project (RASP) is to provide an overview of ongoing and planned supplementation activities, to construct a conceptual framework and model for evaluating the potential benefits and risks of supplementation and to develop a plan for better regional coordination of research and monitoring and evaluation of supplementation. RASP has completed its first year of work. Progress toward meeting the first year's objectives and recommendations for future tasks are contained in this report

  20. Preliminary engineering cost trends for highway projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-21

    Preliminary engineering (PE) for a highway project encompasses two efforts: planning to minimize the physical, social, and human environmental impacts of projects and engineering design to deliver the best alternative. PE efforts begin years in advan...

  1. Long term precipitation trends and variability within the Mediterranean region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. M. Philandras

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the trends and variability of annual precipitation totals and annual rain days over land within the Mediterranean region are analyzed. Long term ground-based observations concerning, on one hand, monthly precipitation totals (1900–2010 and rain days (1965–2010 from 40 meteorological stations within the Mediterranean region were obtained from the Hellenic National Meteorological Service and the World Climate Data and Monitoring Programme (WCDMP of the World Meteorological Organization. On the other hand, high spatial resolution (0.5° × 0.5° gridded monthly data CRU TS 3.1 were acquired from the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, for the period 1901–2009. The two datasets were compared by means of trends and variability, while the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO in the Mediterranean precipitation was examined. In the process, the climatic changes in the precipitation regime between the period 1961–1990 (reference period and the period 2071–2100 (future climate were presented using climate model simulations (RACMO2.1/KNMI. The future climate projections were based on SRES A1B.

    The findings of the analysis showed that statistically significant (95% confidence level negative trends of the annual precipitation totals exist in the majority of Mediterranean regions during the period 1901–2009, with an exception of northern Africa, southern Italy and western Iberian peninsula, where slight positive trends (not statistically significant at 95% CL appear. Concerning the annual number of rain days, a pronounced decrease of 20 %, statistically significant (95% confidence level, appears in representative meteorological stations of east Mediterranean, while the trends are insignificant for west and central Mediterranean. Additionally, NAO index was found to be anticorrelated with the precipitation totals and the number of rain days mainly in Spain, southern France, Italy and Greece. These

  2. Projection display industry market and technology trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castellano, Joseph A.; Mentley, David E.

    1995-04-01

    The projection display industry is diverse, embracing a variety of technologies and applications. In recent years, there has been a high level of interest in projection displays, particularly those using LCD panels or light valves because of the difficulty in making large screen, direct view displays. Many developers feel that projection displays will be the wave of the future for large screen HDTV (high-definition television), penetrating the huge existing market for direct view CRT-based televisions. Projection displays can have the images projected onto a screen either from the rear or the front; the main characteristic is their ability to be viewed by more than one person. In addition to large screen home television receivers, there are numerous other uses for projection displays including conference room presentations, video conferences, closed circuit programming, computer-aided design, and military command/control. For any given application, the user can usually choose from several alternative technologies. These include CRT front or rear projectors, LCD front or rear projectors, LCD overhead projector plate monitors, various liquid or solid-state light valve projectors, or laser-addressed systems. The overall worldwide market for projection information displays of all types and for all applications, including home television, will top DOL4.6 billion in 1995 and DOL6.45 billion in 2001.

  3. Cancer incidence in Canada: trends and projections (1983-2032

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin Xie

    2015-01-01

    liver cancer and leukemia in both sexes. In contrast, this region is projected to experience elevated incidence rates in males for about half the cancers studied. The incidence rates for all cancers combined are projected to continue to be highest for males in the Atlantic region and for females in Quebec in 15 years but in Ontario thereafter, and lowest in British Columbia. The inter-regional differences are larger in males than in females, possibly due to variations in prostate-specific antigen (PSA testing (for prostate cancer and risk factors. In both males and females, colorectal cancer incidence rates will remain highest in the Atlantic region and lowest in British Columbia. Lung cancer incidence rates are projected to be highest in Quebec and lowest in Ontario and British Columbia for both sexes. The similar regional rates of breast cancer in females are expected to persist. The significantly lowest rates of prostate cancer in Quebec are projected to continue, as are the elevated rates in the Atlantic region. Incidence by sex and age: Cancer is more common in males than in females except in those aged under 55. The overall cancer incidence rate in men aged 65 or older has been falling and will continue to do so. The decrease in lung cancer rates in men aged 65 or older from decreased tobacco use and the decrease in prostate cancer rates in men aged 75 or older have contributed to the overall decrease in this age range. In women aged 65 or older, the relatively stable rate is primarily the result of an increase in lung cancer incidence offset by decreases in incidence for the other cancer sites. This stable trend is projected to continue. Targeted cancer prevention efforts and specific needs for health care services can be expected to vary at different points in the age continuum for males and females. Smoking-related cancers: Between 2003-2007 and 2028-2032, substantial risk reductions are projected for major common tobacco-related cancers in Canada, even with

  4. Testing Kuznets’ Hypothesis for Russian Regions: Trends and Interpretations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James R. Alm

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper established a number of "stylized facts", one of which is a confirmation of the S. Kuznets’ hypothesis of the nonlinear dependence between the degree of inequality in income distribution and welfare economic systems on the example of a group of Russian regions for the period 2002–2012. It is shown that, for a given sample, the welfare and economic growth factors amplify their influence on inequality in income distribution in the post-crisis period. The monotonous growth of income inequality which was observed before the crisis of 2008 is slowing in the process of raising the per capita gross regional product (GRP during the post-crisis period, and for the foreseeable future, in some regions, its direction can be reversed, while maintaining a trend of socio-economic development. Despite the persistence over time of a convex nature of S. Kuznets’ curve for Russian regional data, its parameters changed during the reporting 2002–2012 period. The maximum point of the curve shifts to the left, its convexity increases. These facts indicate that the income inequality growth of the Russian regions’ as a result of growth of per capita GRP is slowing. For some regions in the post-crisis period, the income inequality does not grow with the growth of per capita GRP, or it even reduces. This fact can be attributed to the implementation of the Russian federal socially oriented projects and programs in recent years. The results can be used for the development of regional economic policy in order to regulate the level of income distribution inequality in the regions of Russia.

  5. Market trends in the projection display industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dash, Sweta

    2000-04-01

    The projection display industry represents a multibillion- dollar market that includes four distinct technologies. High-volume consumer products and high-value business products drive the market, with different technologies being used in different application markets. The consumer market is dominated by rear CRT technology, especially in the projection television segment. But rear LCD (liquid crystal display) and rear reflective (DLP, or Digital Light ProcessingTM) televisions are slowly emerging as future competitors to rear CRT projectors. Front CRT projectors are still popular in the high-end home theater market. Front LCD technology and front DLP technology dominate the business market. Traditional light valve technology was the only solution for applications requiring high light outputs, but new three-chip DLP projectors meet the higher light output requirements at a lower price. In the last few years the strongest growth has been in the business market for multimedia presentation applications. This growth was due to the continued increase in display pixel formats, the continued reduction in projector weight, and the improved price/performance ratio. The projection display market will grow at a significant rate during the next five years, driven by the growth in ultraportable (market to digital and HDTV products.

  6. Regional Population Projections for China

    OpenAIRE

    Toth, F.L.; Cao, G.-Y.; Hizsnyik, E.

    2003-01-01

    Considering the size and the regional diversity of China, a prudent analysis of many economic and policy issues needs to consider the regional differences in climate, soil, water, and other natural resource endowments, population density, and social and economic development. Future-oriented multi-regional assessments require regionally detailed scenarios. A key component of such scenarios is the evolution of the population in different regions. For studies of land-use change and agriculture, ...

  7. World and regional labour force trends and prospects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ypsilantis, J N

    1974-01-01

    Changes in fertility during 1970-1985 will not have any effect on the composition of the world work force until 1985 because the people who will be of working age at that time have already been born. However, fertility for this period will directly influence the size of the age group 15-30 in the year 2000. Moreover, fertility trends for this period will have an indirect effect on participation of women in the labor force. The number of people in the labor force has proportionately followed total population. Just as total population is projected to increase in the single decade 1970-1980 by an amount equal to its size in 1750, so the labor force will increase by 360 million during the 1980's (its original size in 1750). By the end of the present century the world labor force may well number some 2,6000 million, reaching 3,000 million by the year 2010; 4,000 million by 2030; 5,000 million by 2070; and stabilizing at about 5,200 million by the end of the 21st century. There will be great regional variations. Increases will range from 20-35% in Europe and the U.S.S.R. to 100-120% in South Asia, Africa, and Latin America. For East Asia and North America the increases may amount to 60% by the year 2000 and 100% by 2050. In 1970 less developed regions had 2/3 the world's labor force; by 2000 they will have 3/4. In 1970 about 20% of the labor force in more developed regions were working in agriculture while in less developed regions 2/3 were so engaged. In other terms, in more developed regions 10 farmers supported 108 persons while in less developed regions 10 farmers supported only 38. According to Food and Agriculture Organization projections, by 2000 only 3.5% of the labor force in developed regions and 43.5% in less developed regions will be in agriculture. Differences in gross national product between regions is striking. In 1970 the less developed regions contained 70% of world population, 67% of the world labor force, 87% of the world agricultural labor, and

  8. Aerosol impacts on regional trends in atmospheric stagnation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mascioli, N. R.; Fiore, A. M.; Previdi, M. J.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme pollution events pose a significant threat to human health and are a leading cause of premature mortality worldwide. While emissions of atmospheric pollutants and their precursors are projected to decrease in the future due to air quality legislation, future climate change may affect the underlying meteorological conditions that contribute to extreme pollution events. Stagnation events, characterized by weak winds and an absence of precipitation, contribute to extreme pollution by halting the removal of pollutants via advection and wet deposition. Here, we use a global climate model (GFDL-CM3) to show that regional stagnation trends over the historical period (1860-2005) are driven by changes in anthropogenic aerosol emissions, rather than rising greenhouse gases. In the northeastern and central United States, aerosol-induced changes in surface and upper level winds have produced significant decreases in the number of stagnant summer days, while decreasing precipitation in the southeast US has increased the number of stagnant summer days. Significant drying over eastern China in response to aerosol forcing contributed to increased stagnation. Additionally, this region was found to be particularly sensitive to changes in local emissions, indicating that improving air quality will also lessen stagnation. In Europe, we find a dipole pattern wherein stagnation decreases over southern Europe and increases over northern Europe in response to global increases in aerosol emissions. We hypothesize that this is due to changes in the large-scale circulation patterns associated with a poleward shift of the North Atlantic storm track. We find that in the future, the combination of declining aerosol emissions and the continued rise of greenhouse gas emissions will lead to a reversal of the historical stagnation trends.

  9. Emerging trends in regional coal production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watson, W.D.

    1994-01-01

    At an average annual growth rate of 1.9%, the total national demand for coal will increase from 850 million short tons in 1985 to 2 billion short tons annually by the year 2030. A market simulation model (described in this paper) determines the regional pattern of coal production needed to meet these demands. Because compliance or low-sulfur coal resources are a low-cost option for meeting environmental regulations, they could be mined out substantially in the medium term. In the next 15 to 25 years, most of the Eastern compliance coal up to a mining cost of $40 per ton could be mined out and 4 billion short tons of Western compliance coal could be produced. By the year 2030, almost all Eastern low-sulfur coal could be mined out. Most Western compliance coal costing less than $20/ton could be mined out by 2030

  10. Africa region population projections - 1988-89

    OpenAIRE

    Vu, My T.; Bos, Eduard; Bulatao, Rodolfo A.

    1988-01-01

    The report which is part of a series, presents population projection tables for each country in the Africa region. The report provides an explanation on projection results as well as a description of the projection methodology, summarizing the main results. The projections in the report cover the period 1985 - 2150. This time period allows countries to approach stability. The key elements in these projections are the base year (mid 1985). Total population estimates and age - sex structures ar...

  11. Balbina's region sustainable development project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hargreaves, Paul

    1994-01-01

    This work presents a planning and administration of an environmental project proposal for Balbina's lake hydroelectric power station restoration. The socio-economic objectives are the hydro-forest bio production development which include fishery, specialized tourism, leisure, besides the processing of industrial raw materials

  12. Assessing trends in observed and modelled climate extremes over Australia in relation to future projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alexander, Lisa

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Nine global coupled climate models were assessed for their ability to reproduce observed trends in a set of indices representing temperature and precipitation extremes over Australia. Observed trends for 1957-1999 were compared with individual and multi-modelled trends calculated over the same period. When averaged across Australia the magnitude of trends and interannual variability of temperature extremes were well simulated by most models, particularly for the warm nights index. Except for consecutive dry days, the majority of models also reproduced the correct sign of trend for precipitation extremes. A bootstrapping technique was used to show that most models produce plausible trends when averaged over Australia, although only heavy precipitation days simulated from the multi-model ensemble showed significant skill at reproducing the observed spatial pattern of trends. Two of the models with output from different forcings showed that only with anthropogenic forcing included could the models capture the observed areally averaged trend for some of the temperature indices, but the forcing made little difference to the models' ability to reproduce the spatial pattern of trends over Australia. Future projected changes in extremes using three emissions scenarios were also analysed. Australia shows a shift towards significant warming of temperature extremes with much longer dry spells interspersed with periods of increased extreme precipitation irrespective of the scenario used. More work is required to determine whether regional projected changes over Australia are robust

  13. Recent Trends of the Tropical Hydrological Cycle Inferred from Global Precipitation Climatology Project and International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Y. P.; Xu, Kuan-Man; Sud, Y. C.; Betts, A. K.

    2011-01-01

    Scores of modeling studies have shown that increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere impact the global hydrologic cycle; however, disagreements on regional scales are large, and thus the simulated trends of such impacts, even for regions as large as the tropics, remain uncertain. The present investigation attempts to examine such trends in the observations using satellite data products comprising Global Precipitation Climatology Project precipitation and International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project cloud and radiation. Specifically, evolving trends of the tropical hydrological cycle over the last 20-30 years were identified and analyzed. The results show (1) intensification of tropical precipitation in the rising regions of the Walker and Hadley circulations and weakening over the sinking regions of the associated overturning circulation; (2) poleward shift of the subtropical dry zones (up to 2deg/decade in June-July-August (JJA) in the Northern Hemisphere and 0.3-0.7deg/decade in June-July-August and September-October-November in the Southern Hemisphere) consistent with an overall broadening of the Hadley circulation; and (3) significant poleward migration (0.9-1.7deg/decade) of cloud boundaries of Hadley cell and plausible narrowing of the high cloudiness in the Intertropical Convergence Zone region in some seasons. These results support findings of some of the previous studies that showed strengthening of the tropical hydrological cycle and expansion of the Hadley cell that are potentially related to the recent global warming trends.

  14. Trends in radiopharmaceutical dispensing in a regional nuclear pharmacy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basmadjian, G.P.; Johnston, J.; Barker, K.; Ice, R.D.

    1982-01-01

    Dispensing trends for radiopharmaceuticals at a regional nuclear pharmacy over a 51-month period were studied. dispensing records of a regional nuclear pharmacy were analyzed with a forecasting procedure that uses univariate time data to produce time trends and autoregressive models. The overall number of prescriptions increased from 3500 to 5500 per quarter. Radiopharmaceuticals used in nuclear cardiology studies increased from less than 0.1% to 17.5% of total prescriptions dispensed, while radiopharmaceuticals used for brain imaging showed a steady decline from 29% to 11% of total prescriptions dispensed. The demand for other radiopharmaceuticals increased in areas such as renal studies, bone studies, lung studies, liver-function studies, and 67 Ga tumor-uptake studies, and declined slightly for static liver studies. Changes in dispensing trends for radiopharmaceuticals will continue as the practice of nuclear medicine concentrates more on functional studies and as newer imaging techniques become used for other purposes

  15. Recent warming trend in the coastal region of Qatar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Way Lee; Saleem, Ayman; Sadr, Reza

    2017-04-01

    The objective of this study was to analyze long-term temperature-related phenomena in the eastern portion of the Middle East, focusing on the coastal region of Qatar. Extreme temperature indices were examined, which were defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, for Doha, Qatar; these indices were then compared with those from neighboring countries. The trends were calculated for a 30-year period (1983-2012), using hourly data obtained from the National Climatic Data Center. The results showed spatially consistent warming trends throughout the region. For Doha, 11 of the 12 indices studied showed significant warming trends. In particular, the warming trends were represented by an increase in the number of warm days and nights and a decrease in the number of cool nights and days. The high-temperature extremes during the night have risen at more than twice the rate of their corresponding daytime extremes. The intensity and frequency of hot days have increased, and the minimum temperature indices exhibited a higher rate of warming. The climatic changes in Doha are consistent with the region-wide heat-up in recent decades across the Middle East. However, the rapid economic expansion, increase of population since the 1990s, and urban effects in the region are thought to have intensified the rapidly warming climate pattern observed in Doha since the turn of the century.

  16. Evaluation of trends in high temperature extremes in north-western Europe in regional climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Min, E; Hazeleger, W; Van Oldenborgh, G J; Sterl, A

    2013-01-01

    Projections of future changes in weather extremes on the regional and local scale depend on a realistic representation of trends in extremes in regional climate models (RCMs). We have tested this assumption for moderate high temperature extremes (the annual maximum of the daily maximum 2 m temperature, T ann.max ). Linear trends in T ann.max from historical runs of 14 RCMs driven by atmospheric reanalysis data are compared with trends in gridded station data. The ensemble of RCMs significantly underestimates the observed trends over most of the north-western European land surface. Individual models do not fare much better, with even the best performing models underestimating observed trends over large areas. We argue that the inability of RCMs to reproduce observed trends is probably not due to errors in large-scale circulation. There is also no significant correlation between the RCM T ann.max trends and trends in radiation or Bowen ratio. We conclude that care should be taken when using RCM data for adaptation decisions. (letter)

  17. Projections of Three-Dimensional Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, Felix; Rosa, De La

    2005-01-01

    When first-year calculus students are interested in studying double integrals, they can find, in standard textbooks, a detailed description of the different regions of integration. The aims of this paper are: to give a criterion to select the plane that will be projected, to classify the projections, and to give a simple rule to obtain them.…

  18. Campania Region's Educational Quality Facilities Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponti, Giorgio

    2009-01-01

    This article describes the Educational Quality Facilities project undertaken by Italy's Campania Region to provide quality facilities to all of its communities basing new spaces on the "Flexible Learning Module". The objectives of the five-year project are to: build and equip new educational spaces; improve the quality of existing…

  19. Mesopause region temperature variability and its trend in southern Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venturini, Mateus S.; Bageston, José V.; Caetano, Nattan R.; Peres, Lucas V.; Bencherif, Hassan; Schuch, Nelson J.

    2018-03-01

    Nowadays, the study of the upper atmosphere is increasing, mostly because of the need to understand the patterns of Earth's atmosphere. Since studies on global warming have become very important for the development of new technologies, understanding all regions of the atmosphere becomes an unavoidable task. In this paper, we aim to analyze the temperature variability and its trend in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) region during a period of 12 years (from 2003 to 2014). For this purpose, three different heights, i.e., 85, 90 and 95 km, were focused on in order to investigate the upper atmosphere, and a geographic region different to other studies was chosen, in the southern region of Brazil, centered in the city of Santa Maria, RS (29°41'02'' S; 53°48'25'' W). In order to reach the objectives of this work, temperature data from the SABER instrument (Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry), aboard NASA's Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics Dynamics (TIMED) satellite, were used. Finally, two cases were studied related to distinct grids of latitude/longitude used to obtain the mean temperature profiles. The first case considered a grid of 20° × 20° lat/long, centered in Santa Maria, RS, Brazil. In the second case, the region was reduced to a size of 15° × 15° in order to compare the results and discuss the two cases in terms of differences or similarities in temperature trends. Observations show that the size of the geographical area used for the average temperature profiles can influence the results of variability and trend of the temperature. In addition, reducing the time duration of analyses from 24 to 12 h a day also influences the trend significantly. For the smaller geographical region (15° × 15°) and the 12 h daily time window (09:00-21:00 UT) it was found that the main contributions for the temperature variability at the three heights were the annual and semi-annual cycles and the solar flux influence

  20. Conflict Resolution Trends in the Black Sea Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanna Shelest

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The article assesses the main trends of the various conflict resolution processes in the Black Sea region. It emphasizes the transformation of the mediators’ role, including the increase of the EU efforts in the various peace processes. The author states that the absence of military actions, the narrowness of the existing peace formats and competition between the various mediating parties for leadership lead to the militarization of the region, the absence of the conflicts’ ‘ripeness’, new peace initiatives and an ‘all or nothing’ position on the part of the conflicting parties.

  1. A project for monitoring trends in burn severity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eidenshink, Jeffery C.; Schwind, Brian; Brewer, Ken; Zhu, Zhu-Liang; Quayle, Brad; Howard, Stephen M.

    2007-01-01

    Jeff Eidenshink, Brian Schwind, Ken Brewer, Zhi-Liang Zhu, Brad Quayle, and Elected officials and leaders of environmental agencies need information about the effects of large wildfires in order to set policy and make management decisions. Recently, the Wildland Fire Leadership Council (WFLC), which implements and coordinates the National Fire Plan (NFP) and Federal Wildland Fire Management Policies (National Fire Plan 2004), adopted a strategy to monitor the effectiveness of the National Fire Plan and the Healthy Forests Restoration Act (HFRA). One component of this strategy is to assess the environmental impacts of large wildland fires and identify the trends of burn severity on all lands across the United States. To that end, WFLC has sponsored a six-year project, Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS), which requires the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service (USDA-FS) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to map and assess the burn severity for all large current and historical fires. Using Landsat data and the differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) algorithm, the USGS Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) and USDA-FS Remote Sensing Applications Center will map burn severity of all fires since 1984 greater than 202 ha (500ac) in the east, and 404 ha (1,000 ac) in the west. The number of historical fires from this period combined with current fires occurring during the course of the project will exceed 9,000. The MTBS project will generate burn severity data, maps, and reports, which will be available for use at local, state, and national levels to evaluate trends in burn severity and help develop and assess the effectiveness of land management decisions. Additionally, the information developed will provide a baseline from which to monitor the recovery and health of fire-affected landscapes over time. Spatial and tabular data quantifying burn severity will augment existing information used to estimate risk associated with a range

  2. Attribution of the Regional Patterns of North American Climate Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoerling, M.; Kumar, A.; Karoly, D.; Rind, D.; Hegerl, G.; Eischeid, J.

    2007-12-01

    North American trends in surface temperature and precipitation during 1951-2006 exhibit large spatial and seasonal variations. We seek to explain these by synthesizing new information based on existing model simulations of climate and its forcing, and based on modern reanalyses that describe past and current conditions within the free atmosphere. The presentation focuses on current capabilities to explain the spatial variations and seasonal differences in North American climate trends. It will address whether various heterogeneities in space and time can be accounted for by the climate system's sensitivity to time evolving anthropogenic forcing, and examines the influences of non-anthropogenic processes. New findings are presented that indicate anthropogenic forcing alone was unlikely the cause for key regional and seasonal patterns of change, including the absence of summertime warming over the Great Plains of the United States, and the absence of warming during both winter and summer over the southern United States. Key regional features are instead attributed to trends in the principal patterns of atmospheric flow that affect North American climate. It is demonstrated that observed variations in global sea surface temperatures have significantly influenced these patterns of atmospheric flow.

  3. Africa region population projections : 1990-91

    OpenAIRE

    Stephens, Patience W.; Bos, Eduard; Vu, My T.; Bulatao, Rodolfo A.

    1991-01-01

    As recently as the mid-1970s, the Africa region had a smaller population than the Asia, the Latin American and the Caribbean, or the Europe, Middle East, and North Africa regions. Explosive population growth of more than 3 percent per year, projected to decline only gradually, will make Africa the second largest region by 2005. Its share of the world's population will increase from less than 10 percent now to 20 percent in the middle of the next century and to 25 percent when stationarity is ...

  4. Consumer Attitudes About Renewable Energy. Trends and Regional Differences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bird, Lori [Natural Marketing Institute, Harleysville, PA (United States); Sumner, Jenny [Natural Marketing Institute, Harleysville, PA (United States)

    2011-04-01

    The data in this report are taken from Natural Marketing Institute's (NMI's) Lifestyles of Health and Sustainability Consumer Trends Database. Created in 2002, the syndicated consumer database contains responses from 2,000 to 4,000 nationally representative U.S. adults (meaning the demographics of the sample are consistent with U.S. Census findings) each year. NMI used the database to analyze consumer attitudes and behavior related to renewable energy and to update previously conducted related research. Specifically, this report will explore consumer awareness, concerns, perceived benefits, knowledge of purchase options, and usage of renewable energy as well as provide regional comparisons and trends over time.

  5. Consumer Attitudes About Renewable Energy: Trends and Regional Differences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Natural Marketing Institute, Harleysville, Pennsylvania

    2011-04-01

    The data in this report are taken from Natural Marketing Institute's (NMI's) Lifestyles of Health and Sustainability Consumer Trends Database. Created in 2002, the syndicated consumer database contains responses from 2,000 to 4,000 nationally representative U.S. adults (meaning the demographics of the sample are consistent with U.S. Census findings) each year. NMI used the database to analyze consumer attitudes and behavior related to renewable energy and to update previously conducted related research. Specifically, this report will explore consumer awareness, concerns, perceived benefits, knowledge of purchase options, and usage of renewable energy as well as provide regional comparisons and trends over time.

  6. Journal Publication in Chile, Colombia, and Venezuela: University Responses to Global, Regional, and National Pressures and Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delgado, Jorge Enrique

    2011-01-01

    Background. This project was motivated by the impressive growth that scholarly/scientific journals in Latin America have shown in recent decades. That advance is attributed to global, regional, and national pressures and trends, as well as a response to obstacles that scholars/researchers from the region face to be published in prestigious…

  7. Regional and Gender Differences and Trends in the Anesthesiologist Workforce.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baird, Matthew; Daugherty, Lindsay; Kumar, Krishna B; Arifkhanova, Aziza

    2015-11-01

    Concerns have long existed about potential shortages in the anesthesiologist workforce. In addition, many changes have occurred in the economy, demographics, and the healthcare sector in the last few years, which may impact the workforce. The authors documented workforce trends by region of the United States and gender, trends that may have implications for the supply and demand of anesthesiologists. The authors conducted a national survey of American Society of Anesthesiologists members (accounting for >80% of all practicing anesthesiologists in the United States) in 2007 and repeated it in 2013. The authors used logistic regression analysis and Seemingly Unrelated Regression to test across several indicators under an overarching hypothesis. Anesthesiologists in Western states had markedly different patterns of practice relative to anesthesiologists in other regions in 2007 and 2013, including differences in employer type, the composition of anesthesia teams, and the time spent on monitored anesthesia care. The number and proportion of female anesthesiologists in the workforce increased between 2007 and 2013, and females differed from males in employment arrangements, compensation, and work hours. Regional differences remained stable during this time period although the reasons for these differences are speculative. Similarly, how and whether the gender difference in work hours and shift to younger anesthesiologists during this period will impact workforce needs is uncertain.

  8. Cancer burden trends in Umbria region using a joinpoint regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuseppe Michele Masanotti

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION. The analysis of the epidemiological data on cancer is an important tool to control and evaluate the outcomes of primary and secondary prevention, the effectiveness of health care and, in general, all cancer control activities. MATERIALS AND METHODS. The aim of the this paper is to analyze the cancer mortality in the Umbria region from 1978 to 2009 and incidence from 1994-2008. Sex and site-specific trends for standardized rates were analyzed by "joinpoint regression", using the surveillance epidemiology and end results (SEER software. RESULTS. Applying the jointpoint analyses by sex and cancer site, to incidence spanning from 1994 to 2008 and mortality from 1978 to 2009 for all sites, both in males and females, a significant joinpoint for mortality was found; moreover the trend shape was similar and the joinpoint years were very close. In males standardized rate significantly increased up to 1989 by 1.23% per year and significantly decreased thereafter by -1.31%; among females the mortality rate increased in average of 0.78% (not significant per year till 1988 and afterward significantly decreased by -0.92% per year. Incidence rate showed different trends among sexes. In males was practically constant over the period studied (not significant increase 0.14% per year, in females significantly increased by 1.49% per year up to 2001 and afterward slowly decreased (-0.71% n.s. estimated annual percent change − EAPC. CONCLUSIONS. For all sites combined trends for mortality decreased since late '80s, both in males and females; such behaviour is in line with national and European Union data. This work shows that, even compared to health systems that invest more resources, the Umbria public health system achieved good health outcomes.

  9. Upper Limit for Regional Sea Level Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Jackson, Luke; Riva, Riccardo; Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John

    2016-04-01

    With more than 150 million people living within 1 m of high tide future sea level rise is one of the most damaging aspects of warming climate. The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report (AR5 IPCC) noted that a 0.5 m rise in mean sea level will result in a dramatic increase the frequency of high water extremes - by an order of magnitude, or more in some regions. Thus the flood threat to the rapidly growing urban populations and associated infrastructure in coastal areas are major concerns for society. Hence, impact assessment, risk management, adaptation strategy and long-term decision making in coastal areas depend on projections of mean sea level and crucially its low probability, high impact, upper range. With probabilistic approach we produce regional sea level projections taking into account large uncertainties associated with Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets contribution. We calculate the upper limit (as 95%) for regional sea level projections by 2100 with RCP8.5 scenario, suggesting that for the most coastlines upper limit will exceed the global upper limit of 1.8 m.

  10. Elusive drought: uncertainty in observed trends and short- and long-term CMIP5 projections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Orlowsky

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Recent years have seen a number of severe droughts in different regions around the world, causing agricultural and economic losses, famines and migration. Despite their devastating consequences, the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI of these events lies within the general range of observation-based SPI time series and simulations from the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5. In terms of magnitude, regional trends of SPI over the last decades remain mostly inconclusive in observation-based datasets and CMIP5 simulations, but Soil Moisture Anomalies (SMAs in CMIP5 simulations hint at increased drought in a few regions (e.g., the Mediterranean, Central America/Mexico, the Amazon, North-East Brazil and South Africa. Also for the future, projections of changes in the magnitude of meteorological (SPI and soil moisture (SMA drought in CMIP5 display large spreads over all time frames, generally impeding trend detection. However, projections of changes in the frequencies of future drought events display more robust signal-to-noise ratios, with detectable trends towards more frequent drought before the end of the 21st century in the Mediterranean, South Africa and Central America/Mexico. Other present-day hot spots are projected to become less drought-prone, or display non-significant changes in drought occurrence. A separation of different sources of uncertainty in projections of meteorological and soil moisture drought reveals that for the near term, internal climate variability is the dominant source, while the formulation of Global Climate Models (GCMs generally becomes the dominant source of spread by the end of the 21st century, especially for soil moisture drought. In comparison, the uncertainty from Green-House Gas (GHG concentrations scenarios is negligible for most regions. These findings stand in contrast to respective analyses for a heat wave index, for which GHG concentrations scenarios constitute the main source

  11. Ecological projects of Semipalatinsk region rehabilitation program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Musataev, M.Kh.

    2000-01-01

    Number of radioecological investigations of Semipalatinsk region evident, that radiatively dangerous levels of contaminations remains only on test settlements of site, on traces of explosion dose-forming clouds, and on some sections where experiments with radioactive substances were carried out. Radiological problem includes necessity of clarification of boundaries between dirty and clean lands; study of plutonium contamination hazard and radionuclides migration with underground and surface waters; conducting of monitoring of both the water quality and the agricultural foodstuff. Today in the region the problem of psychological stress of population remains. The problem is arisen because of late consequences of nuclear tests and other factors related with insufficient well-informing of population and mistrust of population to official radiation assessments in the region. To this problem is devoted six ecological projects of Semipalatinsk site rehabilitation program proposed by 53 session of United Nation Assembly for financing by international financing organizations and by countries-donors

  12. Regional projection of climate impact indices over the Mediterranean region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casanueva, Ana; Frías, M.; Dolores; Herrera, Sixto; Bedia, Joaquín; San Martín, Daniel; Gutiérrez, José Manuel; Zaninovic, Ksenija

    2014-05-01

    Climate Impact Indices (CIIs) are being increasingly used in different socioeconomic sectors to transfer information about climate change impacts and risks to stakeholders. CIIs are typically based on different weather variables such as temperature, wind speed, precipitation or humidity and comprise, in a single index, the relevant meteorological information for the particular impact sector (in this study wildfires and tourism). This dependence on several climate variables poses important limitations to the application of statistical downscaling techniques, since physical consistency among variables is required in most cases to obtain reliable local projections. The present study assesses the suitability of the "direct" downscaling approach, in which the downscaling method is directly applied to the CII. In particular, for illustrative purposes, we consider two popular indices used in the wildfire and tourism sectors, the Fire Weather Index (FWI) and the Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET), respectively. As an example, two case studies are analysed over two representative Mediterranean regions of interest for the EU CLIM-RUN project: continental Spain for the FWI and Croatia for the PET. Results obtained with this "direct" downscaling approach are similar to those found from the application of the statistical downscaling to the individual meteorological drivers prior to the index calculation ("component" downscaling) thus, a wider range of statistical downscaling methods could be used. As an illustration, future changes in both indices are projected by applying two direct statistical downscaling methods, analogs and linear regression, to the ECHAM5 model. Larger differences were found between the two direct statistical downscaling approaches than between the direct and the component approaches with a single downscaling method. While these examples focus on particular indices and Mediterranean regions of interest for CLIM-RUN stakeholders, the same study

  13. Natural gas consumption trends and demand projections for Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uqaili, M.A.; Harijan, K.; Memon, H.U.R.

    2005-01-01

    Pakistan is an energy deficient country and heavily depends on imported energy. Natural gas is a dominating source of commercial energy in the country. This paper presents the natural gas consumption trends and future demand projections for Pakistan. The paper also investigates the potential utilization options of natural gas in the country. The study indicates that the natural gas consumption in the country increased rapidly at an average growth rate of about 6.8% per annum during the last three decades. Currently, natural gas contributes about 44.2% of the primary commercial energy supply in the country. Power, Fertilizer, General industry and Domestic sectors are the major consumers of gas in the country. The paper concludes the natural gas demand in the country is projected to increase to about 34-64 MTOE (Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent) by the year 2018. Enhancement in the indigenous exploration and modulation of gas and import of gas from central Asian Sates is essential for meeting the growing gas demand, protecting the environment and increasing the economic independence in the country. (author)

  14. Trends and Perspectives of Social and Economic Development of the Perm region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taliya Kh. Usmanova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: the main purpose of the article is study the current prerequisites and trends of the economic development of the Perm Region to formulate proposals and recommendations within the framework of the program for the long-term development of regional social and economic systems. The main hypothesis of the article is that the social and economic development of the Perm Region requires the creation of innovative ways to develop promising areas of business based on relevant trends and assumptions.Methods: the methodology of solving the tasks is based on the use of the method of dialectical research, methods of economic analysis, forecasting, situational and system analysis, expert assessments and analysis of empirical data.Results: the results of the work are to study the economic processes in the region, including indicators and indicators of the region's social and economic development, and further develop recommendations and proposals for the development of priority areas in project management and selection of optimal project planning models to ensure sustainable development of the region and its competitiveness.Conclusions and Relevance: priority goals for solving the current economic problems of the Perm Region are to increase the income of the population and increase the revenue of the regional budget. To increase the pace and ensure the stability of economic growth, increase the real income of citizens, achieve technological leadership, a consistent solution to a number of specific tasks is necessary. It is important that the implementation of economic policy should be based on building partnerships between public authorities and entrepreneurship, aimed at increasing the efficiency of companies and the development of the economy of the region.

  15. Regional Assessment of Supplementation Project. Status report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-10-01

    The Fish and Wildlife Program of the Northwest Power Planning Council (NPPC) prescribes several approaches to achieve its goal of doubling the salmon and steelhead runs of the Columbia River. Among those approaches are habitat restoration, improvements in adult and juvenile passage at dams and artificial propagation. Supplementation will be a major part of the new hatchery programs. The purpose of the Regional Assessment of Supplementation Project (RASP) is to provide an overview of ongoing and planned supplementation activities, to construct a conceptual framework and model for evaluating the potential benefits and risks of supplementation and to develop a plan for better regional coordination of research and monitoring and evaluation of supplementation. RASP has completed its first year of work. Progress toward meeting the first year`s objectives and recommendations for future tasks are contained in this report.

  16. MODERN INNOVATION TRENDS IN THE NORTHERN REGIONS AND CORPORATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. S. Selin

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: the purpose of the study is to analyze, identify and structure the main trends of technical and technological development of regions and corporations in the Russian North.Methods: to achieve the purpose, methods of factor and system analysis, general economic approaches are used. For the structuring of processes, the methodological tools of indicators and indicators are of great importance, especially in conditions of a high degree of isomorphism of territories. Given the high degree of uncertainty of economic processes in the North, the presence of a large number of risks and threats, in some cases, expert methods and content analysis are used.Results: the main results of the research can be attributed to the relatively high degree of innovative activity of organizations in the regions of the Far North, in the industrial sector with a predominantly resource-resource orientation. The need for accelerating technical and technological transformations in connection with the strengthening of the "sanction" policy of the West is substantiated. Import substitution, especially in the areas of economic security, is, in effect, imperative.Conclusions and relevance: in the strategic perspective, the industrial complex of the northern regions will provide accelerated industrialization with orders for high-tech materials and equipment needed to develop the Arctic shelf. A certain scientific novelty is the conclusion that the northern regions and corporations have innovative demand and financial potential, therefore, despite the predominantly raw material profile, they can become a kind of "locomotive" of the national innovation dynamics. The structuring of perspective directions of state support for innovations in the North, where the need for support of the research sector is justified at the federal level, and the strengthening of attention to the system of general and secondary special education can have practical significance.

  17. Improvement of Global and Regional Mean Sea Level Trends Derived from all Altimetry Missions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ablain, Michael; Benveniste, Jérôme; Faugere, Yannice; Larnicol, Gilles; Cazenave, Anny; Johannessen, Johnny A.; Stammer, Detlef; Timms, Gary

    2012-07-01

    The global mean sea level (GMSL) has been calculated on a continual basis since January 1993 using data from satellite altimetry missions. The global mean sea level (MSL) deduced from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1 and Jason-2 is increasing with a global trend of 3.2 mm from 1993 to 2010 applying the post glacial rebound (MSL Aviso website http://www.jason.oceanobs.com/msl). Besides, the regional sea level trends bring out an inhomogeneous repartition of the ocean elevation with local MSL slopes ranging from +/- 8 mm/year. A study published in 2009 [Ablain et al., 2009] has shown that the global MSL trend uncertainty was estimated at +/-0.6 mm/year with a confidence interval of 90%. The main sources of errors at global and regional scales are due to the orbit calculation and the wet troposphere correction. But others sea-level components have also a significant impact on the long-term stability of MSL as for instance the stability of instrumental parameters and the atmospheric corrections. Thanks to recent studies performed in Sea Level Essential Climate Variable Project in the frame of the Climate Change Initiative, an ESA Programme, in addition to activities performed within the SALP/CNES, strong improvements have been provided for the estimation of the global and regional MSL trends. In this paper, we propose to describe them; they concern the orbit calculation thanks to new gravity fields, the atmospheric corrections thanks to ERA-interim reanalyses, the wet troposphere corrections thanks to the stability improvement, and also empirical corrections allowing us to link regional time series together better. These improvements are described at global and regional scale for all the altimetry missions.

  18. Trends and determinants of cycling in the Washington, DC region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    This report analyzes cycling trends, policies, and commuting in the Washington, DC area. The analysis is divided into two parts. : Part 1 focuses on cycling trends and policies in Washington (DC), Alexandria (VA), Arlington County (VA), Fairfax Count...

  19. Applying Multimodel Ensemble from Regional Climate Models for Improving Runoff Projections on Semiarid Regions of Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia Galiano, S. G.; Olmos, P.; Giraldo Osorio, J. D.

    2015-12-01

    In the Mediterranean area, significant changes on temperature and precipitation are expected throughout the century. These trends could exacerbate the existing conditions in regions already vulnerable to climatic variability, reducing the water availability. Improving knowledge about plausible impacts of climate change on water cycle processes at basin scale, is an important step for building adaptive capacity to the impacts in this region, where severe water shortages are expected for the next decades. RCMs ensemble in combination with distributed hydrological models with few parameters, constitutes a valid and robust methodology to increase the reliability of climate and hydrological projections. For reaching this objective, a novel methodology for building Regional Climate Models (RCMs) ensembles of meteorological variables (rainfall an temperatures), was applied. RCMs ensembles are justified for increasing the reliability of climate and hydrological projections. The evaluation of RCMs goodness-of-fit to build the ensemble is based on empirical probability density functions (PDF) extracted from both RCMs dataset and a highly resolution gridded observational dataset, for the time period 1961-1990. The applied method is considering the seasonal and annual variability of the rainfall and temperatures. The RCMs ensembles constitute the input to a distributed hydrological model at basin scale, for assessing the runoff projections. The selected hydrological model is presenting few parameters in order to reduce the uncertainties involved. The study basin corresponds to a head basin of Segura River Basin, located in the South East of Spain. The impacts on runoff and its trend from observational dataset and climate projections, were assessed. Considering the control period 1961-1990, plausible significant decreases in runoff for the time period 2021-2050, were identified.

  20. Regional demand and supply projections for outdoor recreation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald B. K. English; Carter J. Betz; J. Mark Young; John C. Bergstrom; H. Ken Cordell

    1993-01-01

    This paper develops regional recreation supply and demand projections, by combining coefficients from the national 1989 RPA Assessment models with regional regressor values. Regional recreation opportunity estimates also are developed, based on regional travel behavior. Results show important regional variations in projections of recreation opportunities, trip supply,...

  1. Trends in radiopharmaceutical dispensing in a regional nuclear pharmacy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basmadjian, G.P.; Barker, K.; Johnston, J.; Stinchcomb, R.; Tarman, B.; Ice, R.D.

    1983-01-01

    In the last five years, the practice of nuclear medicine has undergone changes due to the advent of new imaging technologies and radiopharmaceuticals. These changes have had an impact upon the number and the type of radiopharmaceuticals dispensed in centralized nuclear pharmacies. With the advent of Computerized Axial Tomography Scanners (CAT), sophistication and wider acceptance of the Ultrasound imaging modality, nuclear medicine has had to change directions from utilizing radiopharmaceuticals for static organ imaging to functional type imaging and to resort to the use of new radiopharmaceuticals or to find other uses for the existing radiopharmaceuticals. The following trends in radiopharmaceutical dispensing in a regional nuclear pharmacy are evident: Brain procedures have declined by about 67% while nuclear cardiology studies have increased by over 2000%. Bone scans have increased by 72% while liver, renal and lung studies have shown no significant increase. These changes will continue as the practice of nuclear medicine concentrates more on functional studies and relegates other studies to newer imaging modalities

  2. COMPARISON OF TREND PROJECTION METHODS AND BACKPROPAGATION PROJECTIONS METHODS TREND IN PREDICTING THE NUMBER OF VICTIMS DIED IN TRAFFIC ACCIDENT IN TIMOR TENGAH REGENCY, NUSA TENGGARA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksius Madu

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to predict the number of traffic accident victims who died in Timor Tengah Regency with Trend Projection method and Backpropagation method, and compare the two methods based on the degree of guilt and predict the number traffic accident victims in the Timor Tengah Regency for the coming year. This research was conducted in Timor Tengah Regency where data used in this study was obtained from Police Unit in Timor Tengah Regency. The data is on the number of traffic accidents in Timor Tengah Regency from 2000 – 2013, which is obtained by a quantitative analysis with Trend Projection and Backpropagation method. The results of the data analysis predicting the number of traffic accidents victims using Trend Projection method obtained the best model which is the quadratic trend model with equation Yk = 39.786 + (3.297 X + (0.13 X2. Whereas by using back propagation method, it is obtained the optimum network that consists of 2 inputs, 3 hidden screens, and 1 output. Based on the error rates obtained, Back propagation method is better than the Trend Projection method which means that the predicting accuracy with Back propagation method is the best method to predict the number of traffic accidents victims in Timor Tengah Regency. Thus obtained predicting the numbers of traffic accident victims for the next 5 years (Years 2014-2018 respectively - are 106 person, 115 person, 115 person, 119 person and 120 person.   Keywords: Trend Projection, Back propagation, Predicting.

  3. Regional nuclear fuel cycle centers study project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bennett, L.; Catlin, R.G.; Meckoni, V.

    1977-01-01

    The concept of regional fuel cycle centers (RFCC) has attracted wide interest. The concept was endorsed by many countries in discussions at the General Conference of the International Atomic Energy Agency and at the General Assembly of the United Nations. Accordingly, in 1975, the IAEA initiated a detailed study of the RFCC concept. The Agency study has concentrated on what is referred to as the ''back-end'' of the fuel cycle because that is the portion which is currently problematic. The study covers transport, storage, processing and recycle activities starting from the time the spent fuel leaves the reactor storage pools and through all steps until the recycled fuel is in finished fuel elements and shipped to the reactor. A detailed evaluation of the specific features of large regional fuel cycle centers established on a multinational basis vis-a-vis smaller dispersed fuel cycle facilities set up on a national basis has been carried out. The methodology for assessment of alternative strategies for fuel storage, reprocessing, and recycling of plutonium has been developed, characteristic data on material flows and cost factors have been generated, and an analytic system has been developed to carry out such evaluations including appropriate sensitivity analysis. Studies in related areas on institutional and legal, organizational, environmental, materials control and other essential aspects have also been made. The material developed during the course of this Study would enable any group of interested Member States to examine and work out alternative strategies pertinent to their present and projected nuclear fuel cycle needs, as well as evolve institutional, legal and other appropriate frameworks or agreements for the establishment of fuel cycle centers on a multinational cooperative basis

  4. Petrobras eyes LNG project in Amazon region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1995-01-01

    The Brazilian state oil company has proved gas reserves in the Rio Urucu area of the Amazon jungle totaling 1.84 tcf. That compares with 3.08 tcf contained in the offshore Campos basin, source of most of Brazil's oil and gas production. The environmentally sensitive Urucu region is one of the most dense, remote jungles in the world. Because of environmental concerns about pipelines in the rain forest and a government emphasis on boosting the natural gas share of Brazil's energy mix, a small liquefied natural gas project is shaping up as the best option for developing and marketing Urucu gas. The amazon campaign underscores a government initiative to boost Brazilian consumption of natural gas. In Brazil natural gas accounts for only 4% of primary energy consumption. Some years ago, the government set an official goal of boosting the gas share of the primary energy mix to 10% by 2000. The paper discusses current drilling activities, gas production and processing, the logistics of the upper Amazon, and gas markets

  5. From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Burden? : Regional Trends of Population Aging in Russia

    OpenAIRE

    Matytsin, Mikhail; Moorty, Lalita; Richter, Kaspar

    2015-01-01

    Do regions with higher working age populations grow faster? This paper examines this question using data from Russian regions and finds evidence that demographic trends influence regional growth convergence. In other words, keeping other factors constant, poorer regions grow faster than richer regions, and some of the growth convergence is explained by demographic changes: faster growth in...

  6. CHINA'S INTERNATIONAL TOURISM UNDER ECONOMIC TRANSITION: NATIONAL TRENDS AND REGIONAL DISPARITIES

    OpenAIRE

    Liang, Chyi-Lyi (Kathleen); Guo, Rong; Wang, Qingbin

    2003-01-01

    China's Tourism industry, especially international tourism, has expanded rapidly since its market-oriented economic reform started in 1978. There has been limited information regarding the trends and regional disparities. This paper examines the national trends of China's international tourism since 1982 and analyzes the changes in regional disparities since 1995. While the trend analysis suggests that China's international tourism is likely to keep growing at a significant rate, the analysis...

  7. An examination of fuel consumption trends in construction projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peters, Valerie A.; Manley, Dawn K.

    2012-01-01

    Recent estimates of fuel consumption in construction projects are highly variable. Lack of standards for reporting at both the equipment and project levels make it difficult to quantify the magnitude of fuel consumption and the associated opportunities for efficiency improvements in construction projects. In this study, we examined clusters of Environmental Impact Reports for seemingly similar construction projects in California. We observed that construction projects are not characterized consistently by task or equipment. We found wide variations in estimates for fuel use in terms of tasks, equipment, and overall projects, which may be attributed in part to inconsistencies in methodology and parameter ranges. Our analysis suggests that standardizing fuel consumption reporting and estimation methodologies for construction projects would enable quantification of opportunities for efficiency improvements at both the equipment and project levels. With increasing emphasis on reducing fossil fuel consumption, it will be important to quantify opportunities to increase fuel efficiency, including across the construction sector. - Highlights: ► An analysis of construction projects reveals inconsistencies in fuel use estimates. ► Fuel consumption estimates for similar construction equipment can vary greatly. ► Standards would help to quantify efficiency opportunities in construction.

  8. Oklahoma Study of Educator Supply and Demand: Trends and Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg-Jacobson, Alex; Levin, Jesse

    2015-01-01

    In June 2014, the Oklahoma State Regents of Higher Education (OSRHE) commissioned American Institutes for Research (AIR) to conduct a study to better understand both historical and future predicted trends of educator supply and demand across Oklahoma. OSRHE commissioned the study in partnership with the Oklahoma Commission for Teacher Preparation…

  9. Toward 2000. Trends Report II: Elementary-Secondary Projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Press, Harold L.

    Comprehensive, systematic planning provides the overall direction for education through the development of policies and objectives. An understanding of demographic, social, and economic trends is necessary for educators to make decisions for the future. The 1986 demographic forecasts for the province of Newfoundland are updated in this report,…

  10. Massachusetts Study of Teacher Supply and Demand: Trends and Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, Jesse; Berg-Jacobson, Alex; Atchison, Drew; Lee, Katelyn; Vontsolos, Emily

    2015-01-01

    In April 2015, the Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (ESE) commissioned American Institutes for Research (AIR) to develop a comprehensive set of 10-year projections of teacher supply and demand in order to inform planning for future workforce needs. This included state-level projections both in the aggregate, as well…

  11. INNOVATION POTENTIAL OF RUSSIAN NORTHERN REGIONS: DEVELOPMENT TRENDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E.N. Berezikova

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available In the work for the first time a methodology of complex evaluation of innovation potentials of the regions is proposed. As a result the index of innovation potentials of Russian northern regions was determined, and on its basis all regions are referred to groups corresponding their innovation rating. A system of measures on stimulation of innovation activities in regions has been proposed

  12. Spatio-temporal trend analysis of projected precipitation data over Rwanda

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muhire, I.; Tesfamichael, S. G.; Ahmed, F.; Minani, E.

    2018-01-01

    This study applied a number of statistical techniques aimed at quantifying the magnitude of projected mean rainfall and number of rainy days over Rwanda on monthly, seasonal, and annual timescales for the period 2015-2050. The datasets for this period were generated by BCM2.0 for the SRES emission scenario SRB1, CO2 concentration for the baseline scenario (2011-2030) using the stochastic weather generator (LARS-WG). It was observed that on average, there will be a steady decline in mean rainfall. Save for the short rainy season, a positive trend in mean rainfall is expected over the south-west, the north-east region, and the northern highlands. The other regions (central, south-east, and western regions) are likely to experience a decline in mean rainfall. The number of rainy days is expected to decrease in the central plateau and the south-eastern lowlands, while the south-west, the north-west, and north-east regions are expected to have a pattern of increased number of rainy days. This decline in mean rainfall and rainy days over a large part of Rwanda is an indicator of just how much the country is bound to experience reduced water supply for various uses (e.g., agriculture, domestic activities, and industrial activities).

  13. Key Trends and Problems of Regional Innovation Systems' Development in Poland and Ukraine

    OpenAIRE

    Oleksandr Fedirko

    2014-01-01

    This article is devoted to comparative study of regional innovation development in Poland and Ukraine. Innovation potential and performance of Ukrainian regions assessment is grounded on the regional innovation systems approach, employing selected indicators of the EU regional innovation evaluation criteria. Key trends and problematic issues of regional innovation development are captured through a number of methods: comparative analysis, calculating variation of regional innovation capacity ...

  14. Regional trends amongst Danish specialist farmland breeding birds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heldbjerg, Henning; Fox, Anthony David

    2016-01-01

    declining in all regions. Only Mew Gull Larus canus showed consistent increases in all regions, Western Marsh Harrier Circus aeruginosus and Common Whitethroat Sylvia communis showed increases in the East and West while Barn Swallow Hirundo rustica showed little change in abundance anywhere during...

  15. Regional climate change projections of streamflow characteristics in the Northeast and Midwest U.S.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleonora M.C. Demaria

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Study region: Northeast and Midwest, United States. Study focus: Assessing the climate change impacts on the basin scale is important for water and natural resource managers. Here, the presence of monotonic trends and changes in climate-driven simulated 3-day peak flows, 7-day low flows, and mean base flows are evaluated in the Northeast and Midwest U.S. during the 20th and the 21st centuries using climate projections from sixteen climate models. Proven statistical methods are used to spatially and temporally disaggregate precipitation and temperature fields to a finer resolution before being used as drivers for a hydrological model. New hydrological insights for the region: Changes in the annual cycle of precipitation are likely to occur during the 21st century as winter precipitation increases and warmer temperatures reduce snow coverage across the entire domain especially in the northern basins. Maximum precipitation intensities are projected to become more intense across the region by mid-century especially along the coast. Positive trends in 3-day peak flows are also projected in the region as a result of the more intense precipitation, whereas the magnitude of 7-day low flows and mean base flows are projected to decrease. The length of the low flows season will likely extend by mid-century despite the increased precipitation as the atmospheric demand increases. Keywords: Streamflow peaks, Low flows, Trend analysis, Intense precipitation, Base flows

  16. Regional precipitation trend analysis at the Langat River Basin, Selangor, Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palizdan, Narges; Falamarzi, Yashar; Huang, Yuk Feng; Lee, Teang Shui; Ghazali, Abdul Halim

    2014-08-01

    Various hydrological and meteorological variables such as rainfall and temperature have been affected by global climate change. Any change in the pattern of precipitation can have a significant impact on the availability of water resources, agriculture, and the ecosystem. Therefore, knowledge on rainfall trend is an important aspect of water resources management. In this study, the regional annual and seasonal precipitation trends at the Langat River Basin, Malaysia, for the period of 1982-2011 were examined at the 95 % level of significance using the regional average Mann-Kendall (RAMK) test and the regional average Mann-Kendall coupled with bootstrap (RAMK-bootstrap) method. In order to identify the homogeneous regions respectively for the annual and seasonal scales, firstly, at-site mean total annual and separately at-site mean total seasonal precipitation were spatialized into 5 km × 5 km grids using the inverse distance weighting (IDW) algorithm. Next, the optimum number of homogeneous regions (clusters) is computed using the silhouette coefficient approach. Next, the homogeneous regions were formed using the K-mean clustering method. From the annual scale perspective, all three regions showed positive trends. However, the application of two methods at this scale showed a significant trend only in the region AC1. The region AC2 experienced a significant positive trend using only the RAMK test. On a seasonal scale, all regions showed insignificant trends, except the regions I1C1 and I1C2 in the Inter-Monsoon 1 (INT1) season which experienced significant upward trends. In addition, it was proven that the significance of trends has been affected by the existence of serial and spatial correlations.

  17. VT Biodiversity Project - Biophysical Regions boundary lines

    Data.gov (United States)

    Vermont Center for Geographic Information — (Link to Metadata) This dataset divides Vermont into eight sub-regions on the basis of bedrock geology, gross physiography, climate, and broad-scale patterns of...

  18. Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slangen, A.B.A.; Carson, M.; Katsman, C.A.; van de Wal, R.S.W.; Köhl, A.; Vermeersen, L.L.A.; Stammer, D.

    2014-01-01

    We present regional sea-level projections and associated uncertainty estimates for the end of the 21 (st) century. We show regional projections of sea-level change resulting from changing ocean circulation, increased heat uptake and atmospheric pressure in CMIP5 climate models. These are combined

  19. Aurora Borealis. Project Cycle Management in Regional Development

    OpenAIRE

    Andra Aldea-Partanen; Heimo Keränen; Susanna Nevalainen

    2003-01-01

    This paper aims to analyse Project Cycle Management approach in the context of regional development. The theoretical framework covers contemporary concepts typical for regional development and specific project/programme management tools. The comparative approach is used to take into account the two versions of Project Cycle Management presented by European Commission among evaluation methods and instruments, in 1993 and 2001. A practical application is drawn using mid-term evaluation of Baren...

  20. Extending water vapor trend observations over Boulder into the tropopause region: Trend uncertainties and resulting radiative forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunz, A.; Müller, R.; Homonnai, V.; Jánosi, I. M.; Hurst, D.; Rap, A.; Forster, P. M.; Rohrer, F.; Spelten, N.; Riese, M.

    2013-10-01

    Thirty years of balloon-borne measurements over Boulder (40°N,105°W) are used to investigate the water vapor trend in the tropopause region. This analysis extends previously published trends, usually focusing on altitudes greater than 16 km, to lower altitudes. Two new concepts are applied: (1) Trends are presented in a thermal tropopause (TP) relative coordinate system from -2 km below to 10 km above the TP, and (2) sonde profiles are selected according to TP height. Tropical (TPz>14km), extratropical (TPzconcepts reduces the dynamically induced water vapor variability at the TP and principally favors refined water vapor trend studies in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Nonetheless, this study shows how uncertain trends are at altitudes -2 to +4 km around the TP. This uncertainty in turn has an influence on the uncertainty and interpretation of water vapor radiative effects at the TP, which are locally estimated for the 30 year period to be of uncertain sign. The much discussed decrease in water vapor at the beginning of 2001 is not detectable between -2 and 2 km around the TP. On lower stratospheric isentropes, the water vapor change at the beginning of 2001 is more intense for extratropical than for tropical air mass types. This suggests a possible link with changing dynamics above the jet stream such as changes in the shallow branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation.

  1. Trends bodybuilding development in Ukraine and Kharkov region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olexandr Tyhorskyy

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: to determine the features of bodybuilding and Ukraine in Kharkiv region. Material and Methods: results conducted on the basis of archival materials and records of events, publications and other sources. Incrementally conducted research of bodybuilding Ukraine and Kharkiv from the first event to modern times. Results: bodybuilding – a sport that can be practiced at any age. This makes bodybuilding common among different population groups. Conclusions: every year in Ukraine, the growing number of athletes and their level of preparedness. Athletes of Ukraine and the Kharkiv region show good results in international competitions.

  2. Recycling and composting demonstration projects for the Memphis region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muller, D. [Memphis and Shelby County Div. of Planning and Development, TN (United States)

    1992-05-01

    This report documents the development and implementation of the project entitled ``Recycling and Composting Demonstration Projects for the Memphis Region.`` The project was funded by the Energy Task Force of the Urban Consortium for Technology Initiatives. This Project was implemented by the staff of the Special Programs Section of the Memphis and Shelby County Division of Planning and Development. The project began November 1, 1990, and was completed December 31, 1991. The purpose of the project was to evaluate the feasibility of a variety of solid waste disposal alternatives.

  3. Recycling and composting demonstration projects for the Memphis region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muller, D. (Memphis and Shelby County Div. of Planning and Development, TN (United States))

    1992-05-01

    This report documents the development and implementation of the project entitled Recycling and Composting Demonstration Projects for the Memphis Region.'' The project was funded by the Energy Task Force of the Urban Consortium for Technology Initiatives. This Project was implemented by the staff of the Special Programs Section of the Memphis and Shelby County Division of Planning and Development. The project began November 1, 1990, and was completed December 31, 1991. The purpose of the project was to evaluate the feasibility of a variety of solid waste disposal alternatives.

  4. Regional tectonic trends on the inner continental shelf off Konkan and central west coast of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Ramana, M.V.

    Satellite imagery and offshore magnetic data were analysed to correlate regional tectonic elements on the inner continental shelf off Konkan and the adjacent Deccan plateau. Three statistically important lineament trends N-S, WNW-ESE and ENE...

  5. Conservation in metropolitan regions: assessing trends and threats of urban development and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorne, J. H.; Santos, M. J.; Bjorkman, J.

    2011-12-01

    Two global challenges to successful conservation are urban expansion and climate change. Rapid urban growth threatens biodiversity and associated ecosystem services, while climate change may make currently protected areas unsuitable for species that exist within them. We examined three measures of landscape change for 8800 km2 of the San Francisco Bay metropolitan region over 80 years past and future: urban growth, protected area establishment, and natural vegetation type extents. The Bay Area is a good test bed for conservation assessment of the impacts of temporal and spatial of urban growth and land cover change. The region is geographically rather small, with over 40% of its lands already dedicated to protected park and open space lands, they are well-documented, and, the area has had extensive population growth in the past and is projected to continue to grow. The ten-county region within which our study area is a subset has grown from 1.78 million people in 1930, to 6.97 million in 2000 and is estimated to grow to 10.94 million by 2050. With such an influx of people into a small geographic area, it is imperative to both examine the past urban expansion and estimate how the future population will be accommodated into the landscape. We quantify these trends to assess conservation 'success' through time. We used historical and current landcover maps to assess trend, and a GIS-based urban modeling (UPlan) to assess future urban growth impacts in the region, under three policy scenarios- business as usual, smart growth, and urban redevelopment. Impacts are measured by the amount of open space targeted by conservation planners in the region that will be urbanized under each urban growth policy. Impacts are also measured by estimates of the energy consumption projected for each of the scenarios on household and business unit level. The 'business as usual' and 'smart growth' scenarios differed little in their impacts to targeted conservation lands, because so little

  6. Regional energy projects in the Eurasian Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vesić Dobrica

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The Eurasian area has a very rich energy reserves, and is characterized by a complex network of relationships between major suppliers and consumers. The central place in this area has Russia as a country richest in energy resources in Eurasia. Beside her, the European Union is the largest economic and political grouping in the world, and a huge consumer of energy. The dynamic development of Chinese economy requires more energy imports by China. Dependence of the European Union and China on imported energy is high and will grow in the future. Russia is the world's dominant natural gas producer and one of the two largest oil producers in the world. Russia is the largest natural gas supplier of the EU and a significant oil and natural gas supplier of China. Energy projects in Eurasia are the result of the need to strengthen the stability of energy supplies, efforts to diversify sources of supply, and the geographic redistribution of Russian oil and gas exports. Although the interests of the main actors often do not agree, the reasons of energy security affect the development of joint energy projects.

  7. Security trends in the Asia-Pacific region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qian Jiadong

    1992-01-01

    The drastic world changes are less conspicuous in Asia-Pacific region than in it was the case in Europe, although they must be considered as stabilizing factors as well as sustained economic dynamism. Due to these changes some progress was achieved in world disarmament and arms control. But this is considered only a first step, there remains a long way to go. In the case of Asia-Pacific, possessors of largest nuclear arsenals and most sophisticated conventional arms need to further reduce their forces, support the proposals of setting up nuclear-weapon-free zones and commit themselves to no-first-use of nuclear weapons and non-use of nuclear weapons against non-nuclear states. Their fulfilment of these demands would undoubtedly contribute towards the prevention of a new round of the arms race and to the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction in Asia-Pacific region

  8.  Project Management as a Global Trend for Organization Work

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kampf, Constance

    in multination and global companies, understanding the power of visual rhetoric, genre and writing processes in the context of project management documentation can be an advantage for technical communicators.  In addition, project management tools and online documentation spaces are objects which cross...... Project Management as a Global Trend for Organization Work: Implications for Technical Communication Project Management tools and processes offer a visual approach to producing knowledge about a project in order to complete it.  As project management practices are used with increasing frequency......-cultural teams use to function.  This presentation will explore the potential of Project Management to be tightly integrated in Technical Communication curricula through a communications approach to project management.  Questions for discussion include: How tightly is project management integrated into different...

  9. Projecting range-wide sun bear population trends using tree cover and camera-trap bycatch data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorraine Scotson

    Full Text Available Monitoring population trends of threatened species requires standardized techniques that can be applied over broad areas and repeated through time. Sun bears Helarctos malayanus are a forest dependent tropical bear found throughout most of Southeast Asia. Previous estimates of global population trends have relied on expert opinion and cannot be systematically replicated. We combined data from 1,463 camera traps within 31 field sites across sun bear range to model the relationship between photo catch rates of sun bears and tree cover. Sun bears were detected in all levels of tree cover above 20%, and the probability of presence was positively associated with the amount of tree cover within a 6-km2 buffer of the camera traps. We used the relationship between catch rates and tree cover across space to infer temporal trends in sun bear abundance in response to tree cover loss at country and global-scales. Our model-based projections based on this "space for time" substitution suggested that sun bear population declines associated with tree cover loss between 2000-2014 in mainland southeast Asia were ~9%, with declines highest in Cambodia and lowest in Myanmar. During the same period, sun bear populations in insular southeast Asia (Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei were projected to have declined at a much higher rate (22%. Cast forward over 30-years, from the year 2000, by assuming a constant rate of change in tree cover, we projected population declines in the insular region that surpassed 50%, meeting the IUCN criteria for endangered if sun bears were listed on the population level. Although this approach requires several assumptions, most notably that trends in abundance across space can be used to infer temporal trends, population projections using remotely sensed tree cover data may serve as a useful alternative (or supplement to expert opinion. The advantages of this approach is that it is objective, data-driven, repeatable, and it requires that

  10. Recent trends of projection X-ray microscopy in Japan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yada, K. [Tohken CO., LTD. 2-27-7 Tamagawa Chofu, Tokyo 182-0025 (Japan)], E-mail: kyada@tohken.co.jp

    2009-08-15

    Recent activities of projection X-ray microscopy in Japan are reviewed. 1) By employing high brightness Schottky electron gun, resolution of 0.1 {mu}m is realized by Tohken CO. group and some application examples are shown. 2) Deblurring of Fresnel diffracted image formed by synchrotron orbital radiation (SOR) X-rays is successfully tried by Chiba University group. Remarkable Fresnel fringes appearing at HeLa cell are mostly reconstructed by an iteration method. 3) Element analysis is carried out by Meiji University group utilizing absorption-edge characteristics between two kinds of X-ray targets without X-ray spectrometer. Actually, Cu and Ni targets are used with an inter-changeable system for elemental analysis of Fe{sub 2}O{sub 3} particles and iron component in a mosquito larva.

  11. Long-term trends in stratospheric ozone, temperature, and water vapor over the Indian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thankamani Akhil Raj, Sivan; Venkat Ratnam, Madineni; Narayana Rao, Daggumati; Venkata Krishna Murthy, Boddam

    2018-01-01

    We have investigated the long-term trends in and variabilities of stratospheric ozone, water vapor and temperature over the Indian monsoon region using the long-term data constructed from multi-satellite (Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS MLS and HALOE, 1993-2005), Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS, 2004-2015), Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER, 2002-2015) on board TIMED (Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics Dynamics)) observations covering the period 1993-2015. We have selected two locations, namely, Trivandrum (8.4° N, 76.9° E) and New Delhi (28° N, 77° E), covering northern and southern parts of the Indian region. We also used observations from another station, Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E), for comparison. A decreasing trend in ozone associated with NOx chemistry in the tropical middle stratosphere is found, and the trend turned to positive in the upper stratosphere. Temperature shows a cooling trend in the stratosphere, with a maximum around 37 km over Trivandrum (-1.71 ± 0.49 K decade-1) and New Delhi (-1.15 ± 0.55 K decade-1). The observed cooling trend in the stratosphere over Trivandrum and New Delhi is consistent with Gadanki lidar observations during 1998-2011. The water vapor shows a decreasing trend in the lower stratosphere and an increasing trend in the middle and upper stratosphere. A good correlation between N2O and O3 is found in the middle stratosphere (˜ 10 hPa) and poor correlation in the lower stratosphere. There is not much regional difference in the water vapor and temperature trends. However, upper stratospheric ozone trends over Trivandrum and New Delhi are different. The trend analysis carried out by varying the initial year has shown significant changes in the estimated trend.

  12. Southwest Alaska Regional Geothermal Energy Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holdmann, Gwen [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States)

    2015-04-30

    The village of Elim, Alaska is 96 miles west of Nome, on the Seward Peninsula. The Darby Mountains north of the village are rich with hydrothermal systems associated with the Darby granitic pluton(s). In addition to the hot springs that have been recorded and studied over the last 100 years, additional hot springs exist. They are known through a rich oral history of the region, though they are not labeled on geothermal maps. This research primarily focused on Kwiniuk Hot Springs, Clear Creek Hot Springs and Molly’s Hot Springs. The highest recorded surface temperatures of these resources exist at Clear Creek Hot Springs (67°C). Repeated water sampling of the resources shows that maximum temperatures at all of the systems are below boiling.

  13. Global Disparities Since 1800: Trends and Regional Patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Shahid Alam

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper reviews the growing body of evidence on the relative economic standing of different regions of the world in the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries. In general, it does not find support for Euro-centric claims regarding Western Europe’s early economic lead. The Eurocentric claims are based primarily on estimates of per capita income, which are plagued by conceptual problems, make demands on historical data that are generally unavailable, and use questionable assumptions to reconstruct early per capita income. A careful examination of these conjectural estimates of per capita income, however, does not support claims that Western Europe had a substantial lead over the rest of the world at the beginning of the nineteenth century. An examination of several alternative indices of living standards in the late eighteenth or early nineteenth centuries—such as real wages, labor productivity in agriculture, and urbanization—also fails to confirm claims of European superiority. In addition, this paper examines the progress of global disparities—including the presence of regional patterns—using estimates of per capita income.

  14. Regional trends in short-duration precipitation extremes: a flexible multivariate monotone quantile regression approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cannon, Alex

    2017-04-01

    Estimating historical trends in short-duration rainfall extremes at regional and local scales is challenging due to low signal-to-noise ratios and the limited availability of homogenized observational data. In addition to being of scientific interest, trends in rainfall extremes are of practical importance, as their presence calls into question the stationarity assumptions that underpin traditional engineering and infrastructure design practice. Even with these fundamental challenges, increasingly complex questions are being asked about time series of extremes. For instance, users may not only want to know whether or not rainfall extremes have changed over time, they may also want information on the modulation of trends by large-scale climate modes or on the nonstationarity of trends (e.g., identifying hiatus periods or periods of accelerating positive trends). Efforts have thus been devoted to the development and application of more robust and powerful statistical estimators for regional and local scale trends. While a standard nonparametric method like the regional Mann-Kendall test, which tests for the presence of monotonic trends (i.e., strictly non-decreasing or non-increasing changes), makes fewer assumptions than parametric methods and pools information from stations within a region, it is not designed to visualize detected trends, include information from covariates, or answer questions about the rate of change in trends. As a remedy, monotone quantile regression (MQR) has been developed as a nonparametric alternative that can be used to estimate a common monotonic trend in extremes at multiple stations. Quantile regression makes efficient use of data by directly estimating conditional quantiles based on information from all rainfall data in a region, i.e., without having to precompute the sample quantiles. The MQR method is also flexible and can be used to visualize and analyze the nonlinearity of the detected trend. However, it is fundamentally a

  15. Evaluation of CMIP5 Ability to Reproduce 20th Century Regional Trends in Surface Air Temperature and Precipitation over CONUS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, J.; Waliser, D. E.; Lee, H.; Loikith, P. C.; Kunkel, K.

    2017-12-01

    Monitoring temporal changes in key climate variables, such as surface air temperature and precipitation, is an integral part of the ongoing efforts of the United States National Climate Assessment (NCA). Climate models participating in CMIP5 provide future trends for four different emissions scenarios. In order to have confidence in the future projections of surface air temperature and precipitation, it is crucial to evaluate the ability of CMIP5 models to reproduce observed trends for three different time periods (1895-1939, 1940-1979, and 1980-2005). Towards this goal, trends in surface air temperature and precipitation obtained from the NOAA nClimGrid 5 km gridded station observation-based product are compared during all three time periods to the 206 CMIP5 historical simulations from 48 unique GCMs and their multi-model ensemble (MME) for NCA-defined climate regions during summer (JJA) and winter (DJF). This evaluation quantitatively examines the biases of simulated trends of the spatially averaged temperature and precipitation in the NCA climate regions. The CMIP5 MME reproduces historical surface air temperature trends for JJA for all time period and all regions, except the Northern Great Plains from 1895-1939 and Southeast during 1980-2005. Likewise, for DJF, the MME reproduces historical surface air temperature trends across all time periods over all regions except the Southeast from 1895-1939 and the Midwest during 1940-1979. The Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES), an analysis tool which supports the NCA by providing access to data and tools for regional climate model validation, facilitates the comparisons between the models and observation. The RCMES Toolkit is designed to assist in the analysis of climate variables and the procedure of the evaluation of climate projection models to support the decision-making processes. This tool is used in conjunction with the above analysis and results will be presented to demonstrate its capability to

  16. SESAME as a Model Project for Other Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winick, Herman

    2013-03-01

    UNESCO became the umbrella organization for SESAME at its Executive Board 164th session, May 2002. The following comments about SESAME were made by this board: ``a quintessential UNESCO project combining capacity building with vital peace-building through science'' and ``a model project for other regions.'' Now that SESAME is well underway, other regions (e.g.; Africa and Central Asia) should be made aware of this progress, and they should be welcomed to join SESAME as a first step in developing similar projects in their region. Students and scientists from other regions should be encouraged to attend SESAME Users' meeting, schools, workshops, etc. where they can learn about synchrotron radiation sources, beamlines, and science. They should be invited to join SESAME scientists in designing and commissioning accelerators and beamlines, gaining relevant experience for their own projects and helping SESAME in the process. Work supported by DOE Office of Basic Energy Sciences

  17. Global crop exposure to critical high temperatures in the reproductive period: historical trends and future projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gourdji, Sharon M; Sibley, Adam M; Lobell, David B

    2013-01-01

    Long-term warming trends across the globe have shifted the distribution of temperature variability, such that what was once classified as extreme heat relative to local mean conditions has become more common. This is also true for agricultural regions, where exposure to extreme heat, particularly during key growth phases such as the reproductive period, can severely damage crop production in ways that are not captured by most crop models. Here, we analyze exposure of crops to physiologically critical temperatures in the reproductive stage (T crit ), across the global harvested areas of maize, rice, soybean and wheat. Trends for the 1980–2011 period show a relatively weak correspondence (r = 0.19) between mean growing season temperature and T crit exposure trends, emphasizing the importance of separate analyses for T crit . Increasing T crit exposure in the past few decades is apparent for wheat in Central and South Asia and South America, and for maize in many diverse locations across the globe. Maize had the highest percentage (15%) of global harvested area exposed to at least five reproductive days over T crit in the 2000s, although this value is somewhat sensitive to the exact temperature used for the threshold. While there was relatively little sustained exposure to reproductive days over T crit for the other crops in the past few decades, all show increases with future warming. Using projections from climate models we estimate that by the 2030s, 31, 16, and 11% respectively of maize, rice, and wheat global harvested area will be exposed to at least five reproductive days over T crit in a typical year, with soybean much less affected. Both maize and rice exhibit non-linear increases with time, with total area exposed for rice projected to grow from 8% in the 2000s to 27% by the 2050s, and maize from 15 to 44% over the same period. While faster development should lead to earlier flowering, which would reduce reproductive extreme heat exposure for wheat on a

  18. Trends in Global and Regional Integration by means of Trade

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iulia Monica Oehler-Șincai

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available In the present paper we aim to emphasize several aspects of the economic integration realized through the channel of trade, from a double perspective. The first point of view is given by the formal framework, de jure, composed by the multitude of preferential trade agreements, while the second one, de facto, market-driven, is concretized by the global production networks. The first stance is exemplified through the agreements negotiated or concluded by the traditional trade powers, EU, US and Japan. Although, economically, EU is more present in Asia-Pacific than the US, the latter are politically more active and seem to gain ground. The second stance is underlined by means of the Asian integration specificity. East and South-East Asia represents the core of „Factory Asia” and is governed by the activity of the transnational corporations, their investment and cross-border networks, which makes the production process more fragmented and the regional economies more mutually dependent.

  19. Recent trends, drivers, and projections of carbon cycle processes in forests and grasslands of North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domke, G. M.; Williams, C. A.; Birdsey, R.; Pendall, E.

    2017-12-01

    In North America forest and grassland ecosystems play a major role in the carbon cycle. Here we present the latest trends and projections of United States and North American carbon cycle processes, stocks, and flows in the context of interactions with global scale budgets and climate change impacts in managed and unmanaged grassland and forest ecosystems. We describe recent trends in natural and anthropogenic disturbances in these ecosystems as well as the carbon dynamics associated with land use and land cover change. We also highlight carbon management science and tools for informing decisions and opportunities for improving carbon measurements, observations, and projections in forests and grasslands.

  20. Trends and regional distributions of land and ocean carbon sinks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. L. Sarmiento

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available We show here an updated estimate of the net land carbon sink (NLS as a function of time from 1960 to 2007 calculated from the difference between fossil fuel emissions, the observed atmospheric growth rate, and the ocean uptake obtained by recent ocean model simulations forced with reanalysis wind stress and heat and water fluxes. Except for interannual variability, the net land carbon sink appears to have been relatively constant at a mean value of −0.27 Pg C yr−1 between 1960 and 1988, at which time it increased abruptly by −0.88 (−0.77 to −1.04 Pg C yr−1 to a new relatively constant mean of −1.15 Pg C yr−1 between 1989 and 2003/7 (the sign convention is negative out of the atmosphere. This result is detectable at the 99% level using a t-test. The land use source (LU is relatively constant over this entire time interval. While the LU estimate is highly uncertain, this does imply that most of the change in the net land carbon sink must be due to an abrupt increase in the land sink, LS = NLS – LU, in response to some as yet unknown combination of biogeochemical and climate forcing. A regional synthesis and assessment of the land carbon sources and sinks over the post 1988/1989 period reveals broad agreement that the Northern Hemisphere land is a major sink of atmospheric CO2, but there remain major discrepancies with regard to the sign and magnitude of the net flux to and from tropical land.

  1. Dominance of climate warming effects on recent drying trends over wet monsoon regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Chang-Eui; Jeong, Su-Jong; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Park, Hoonyoung; Piao, Shilong; Kim, Jinwon; Feng, Song

    2017-09-01

    Understanding changes in background dryness over land is key information for adapting to climate change because of its critical socioeconomic consequences. However, causes of continental dryness changes remain uncertain because various climate parameters control dryness. Here, we verify dominant climate variables determining dryness trends over continental eastern Asia, which is characterized by diverse hydroclimate regimes ranging from arid to humid, by quantifying the relative effects of changes in precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed, surface air temperature, and relative humidity on trends in the aridity index based on observed data from 189 weather stations for the period of 1961-2010. Before the early 1980s (1961-1983), change in precipitation is a primary condition for determining aridity trends. In the later period (1984-2010), the dominant climate parameter for aridity trends varies according to the hydroclimate regime. Drying trends in arid regions are mostly explained by reduced precipitation. In contrast, the increase in potential evapotranspiration due to increased atmospheric water-holding capacity, a secondary impact of warming, works to increase aridity over the humid monsoon region despite an enhanced water supply and relatively less warming. Our results show significant drying effects of warming over the humid monsoon region in recent decades; this also supports the drying trends over warm and water-sufficient regions in future climate.

  2. Dominance of climate warming effects on recent drying trends over wet monsoon regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C.-E. Park

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Understanding changes in background dryness over land is key information for adapting to climate change because of its critical socioeconomic consequences. However, causes of continental dryness changes remain uncertain because various climate parameters control dryness. Here, we verify dominant climate variables determining dryness trends over continental eastern Asia, which is characterized by diverse hydroclimate regimes ranging from arid to humid, by quantifying the relative effects of changes in precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed, surface air temperature, and relative humidity on trends in the aridity index based on observed data from 189 weather stations for the period of 1961–2010. Before the early 1980s (1961–1983, change in precipitation is a primary condition for determining aridity trends. In the later period (1984–2010, the dominant climate parameter for aridity trends varies according to the hydroclimate regime. Drying trends in arid regions are mostly explained by reduced precipitation. In contrast, the increase in potential evapotranspiration due to increased atmospheric water-holding capacity, a secondary impact of warming, works to increase aridity over the humid monsoon region despite an enhanced water supply and relatively less warming. Our results show significant drying effects of warming over the humid monsoon region in recent decades; this also supports the drying trends over warm and water-sufficient regions in future climate.

  3. U.S. Coastal Flood Damage Reduction Projects: Federal Authorization and Investment Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, N. T.

    2015-12-01

    The 2015 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency report Climate Change in the United States: Benefits of Global Action estimated the potential cumulative future economic impacts of storm surge and sea-level rise on U.S. coasts during this century at 5 trillion (2014 dollars) if no adaptation measures are implemented. These impacts drop to 0.8 trillion if investments are made in cost-effective adaptations and protections. Awareness of flood risk and its long-term fiscal impact historically has proven insufficient to motivate pre-disaster land use changes and investments in mitigation and protection. While many adaptations and protections fall largely under state and local authority, some stakeholders are interested in federal coastal flood protection projects, including projects by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Since the 1950s, Congress has authorized the Corps to construct specific coastal projects. The broad vision, strategy, and priorities for the federal role in coastal flood damage reduction projects nonetheless remain ill-defined. This research analyzes (1) the authorization and appropriations trends for Corps coastal storm damage reduction projects, and (2) how Corps feasibility studies account for and address coastal flood hazards. Identified trends include: emergency appropriations for storm-damaged areas outstrip annual investments in coastal flood projects; the rate at which projects are congressionally approved for construction outpaces the rate at which construction is funded; and how coastal protection projects are evaluated in Corps feasibility studies shows variation and change in agency practices. These trends have consequences; they affect public and local expectations when projects begin providing protection benefits, and may influence investments in other adaptation measures. These trends also raise questions for policymakers at all levels and for scientists and practitioners interested in coastal flood resilience.

  4. Selection of projects in the regional energy planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramirez P, R.; Navas M, F.

    1993-01-01

    The processes of regional energy planning have changed vastly in the last years and it will continue changing in the future for the new norm of the State. This work tries to show the use of systematic tools in the selection of regional energy projects. It discusses a methodology of selection of projects based on a multivariate technical. It is applied in the Southwestern region of Colombia and both selection and priority results are obtained. The designed methodology allows to make the selection of projects in an automatic way with a software designed for such an end. In the case of Southwestern it arrives to a briefcase of projects for an energy plan and made for other races

  5. Trends and homogeneity of monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall over arid region of Rajasthan, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meena, Hari Mohan; Machiwal, Deepesh; Santra, Priyabrata; Moharana, Pratap Chandra; Singh, D. V.

    2018-05-01

    Knowledge of rainfall variability is important for regional-scale planning and management of water resources in agriculture. This study explores spatio-temporal variations, trends, and homogeneity in monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall series of 62 stations located in arid region of Rajasthan, India using 55 year (1957-2011) data. Box-whisker plots indicate presence of outliers and extremes in annual rainfall, which made the distribution of annual rainfall right-skewed. Mean and coefficient of variation (CV) of rainfall reveals a high inter-annual variability (CV > 200%) in the western portion where the mean annual rainfall is very low. A general gradient of the mean monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall is visible from northwest to southeast direction, which is orthogonal to the gradient of CV. The Sen's innovative trend test is found over-sensitive in evaluating statistical significance of the rainfall trends, while the Mann-Kendall test identifies significantly increasing rainfall trends in June and September. Rainfall in July shows prominently decreasing trends although none of them are found statistically significant. Monsoon and annual rainfall show significantly increasing trends at only four stations. The magnitude of trends indicates that the rainfall is increasing at a mean rate of 1.11, 2.85, and 2.89 mm year-1 in August, monsoon season, and annual series. The rainfall is found homogeneous over most of the area except for few stations situated in the eastern and northwest portions where significantly increasing trends are observed. Findings of this study indicate that there are few increasing trends in rainfall of this Indian arid region.

  6. Long-term trends in the ionospheric E and F1 regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Bremer

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Ground based ionosonde measurements are the most essential source of information about long-term variations in the ionospheric E and F1 regions. Data of such observations have been derived at many different ionospheric stations all over the world some for more than 50 years. The standard parameters foE, h'E, and foF1 are used for trend analyses in this paper. Two main problems have to be considered in these analyses. Firstly, the data series have to be homogeneous, i.e. the observations should not be disturbed by artificial steps due to technical reasons or changes in the evaluation algorithm. Secondly, the strong solar and geomagnetic influences upon the ionospheric data have carefully to be removed by an appropriate regression analysis. Otherwise the small trends in the different ionospheric parameters cannot be detected.

    The trends derived at individual stations differ markedly, however their dependence on geographic or geomagnetic latitude is only small. Nevertheless, the mean global trends estimated from the trends at the different stations show some general behaviour (positive trends in foE and foF1, negative trend in h'E which can at least qualitatively be explained by an increasing atmospheric greenhouse effect (increase of CO2 content and other greenhouse gases and decreasing ozone values. The positive foE trend is also in qualitative agreement with rocket mass spectrometer observations of ion densities in the E region. First indications could be found that the changing ozone trend at mid-latitudes (before about 1979, between 1979 until 1995, and after about 1995 modifies the estimated mean foE trend.

  7. Demographic trends in the Lodz region and their implications for seniors 50+

    OpenAIRE

    Jolanta Woźnica; Andrzej Tokarski

    2014-01-01

    The situation on the labor market in the Lodz region will change much in the short term , among other things as a result of unfavorable demographic trends, associated with a decrease in population, and also due to a lowering of labor resources. Decreasing labor resources may in the future adversely affect both the balance between the regional labor market by inducing a state of labor shortages and limit the opportunities for development of the region. Simultaneously, due to declining bi...

  8. Sensitivity Analysis of Arctic Sea Ice Extent Trends and Statistical Projections Using Satellite Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ge Peng

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available An ice-free Arctic summer would have pronounced impacts on global climate, coastal habitats, national security, and the shipping industry. Rapid and accelerated Arctic sea ice loss has placed the reality of an ice-free Arctic summer even closer to the present day. Accurate projection of the first Arctic ice-free summer year is extremely important for business planning and climate change mitigation, but the projection can be affected by many factors. Using an inter-calibrated satellite sea ice product, this article examines the sensitivity of decadal trends of Arctic sea ice extent and statistical projections of the first occurrence of an ice-free Arctic summer. The projection based on the linear trend of the last 20 years of data places the first Arctic ice-free summer year at 2036, 12 years earlier compared to that of the trend over the last 30 years. The results from a sensitivity analysis of six commonly used curve-fitting models show that the projected timings of the first Arctic ice-free summer year tend to be earlier for exponential, Gompertz, quadratic, and linear with lag fittings, and later for linear and log fittings. Projections of the first Arctic ice-free summer year by all six statistical models appear to converge to the 2037 ± 6 timeframe, with a spread of 17 years, and the earliest first ice-free Arctic summer year at 2031.

  9. Hawaii energy strategy project 2: Fossil energy review. Task 1: World and regional fossil energy dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Breazeale, K. [ed.; Isaak, D.T.; Yamaguchi, N.; Fridley, D.; Johnson, C.; Long, S.

    1993-12-01

    This report in the Hawaii Energy Strategy Project examines world and regional fossil energy dynamics. The topics of the report include fossil energy characteristics, the world oil industry including reserves, production, consumption, exporters, importers, refining, products and their uses, history and trends in the global oil market and the Asia-Pacific market; world gas industry including reserves, production, consumption, exporters, importers, processing, gas-based products, international gas market and the emerging Asia-Pacific gas market; the world coal industry including reserves, classification and quality, utilization, transportation, pricing, world coal market, Asia-Pacific coal outlook, trends in Europe and the Americas; and environmental trends affecting fossil fuels. 132 figs., 46 tabs.

  10. Trends in Regionalization of Care for ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renee Y. Hsia

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: California has led successful regionalized efforts for several time-critical medical conditions, including ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI, but no specific mandated protocols exist to define regionalization of care. We aimed to study the trends in regionalization of care for STEMI patients in the state of California and to examine the differences in patient demographic, hospital, and county trends. Methods: Using survey responses collected from all California emergency medical services (EMS agencies, we developed four categories – no, partial, substantial, and complete regionalization – to capture prehospital and inter-hospital components of regionalization in each EMS agency’s jurisdiction between 2005–2014. We linked the survey responses to 2006 California non-public hospital discharge data to study the patient distribution at baseline. Results: STEMI regionalization-of-care networks steadily developed across California. Only 14% of counties were regionalized in 2006, accounting for 42% of California’s STEMI patient population, but over half of these counties, representing 86% of California’s STEMI patient population, reached complete regionalization in 2014. We did not find any dramatic differences in underlying patient characteristics based on regionalization status; however, differences in hospital characteristics were relatively substantial. Conclusion: Potential barriers to achieving regionalization included competition, hospital ownership, population density, and financial challenges. Minimal differences in patient characteristics can establish that patient differences unlikely played any role in influencing earlier or later regionalization and can provide a framework for future analyses evaluating the impact of regionalization on patient outcomes.

  11. Trends and changes in tropical and summer days at the Adana Sub-Region of the Mediterranean Region, Southern Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayer Altın, Türkan; Barak, Belma

    2017-11-01

    In this study, the long-term variability and trends of the annual and seasonal numbers of summer and tropical days of the Adana Sub-region were investigated using nonlinear and linear trend detection tests for the period 1960-2014 at 14 meteorological stations. The results suggest that the annual number of summer and tropical days was generally below the long-term average through to the end of the 1980s. In particular, positive anomaly values could be observed at all stations between the years 1993-2014. With respect to the Kruskal-Wallis homogeneity test, the significant breaking date was 1993. The rapid rise of the annual number of summer (tropical) days after this year led to the inversion of the negative trends observed from 1987 to 1992 into positive ones. The increasing trend is statistically significance at 0.01 level in Yumurtalık, Mersin and Antakya for the annual number of summer and tropical days. Dörtyol, İskenderun and Elbistan were significance at 0.01 level for tropical days. The largest positive anomalies of the summer of 2010 are observed in coastal vicinity (Mersin, Yumurtalık and İskenderun). This indicates that these settlements underwent a long-term warm period and thermal conditions due to increasing temperatures in the spring and summer months. The same conditions are found in high inner areas (Göksun and Elbistan) for tropical days. It is noticed that a tendency for greater warming occurred at stations located above 1000 m in the sub-region. The average number of warm days will increase 2-days per 100-years in southern part of the sub-region. The increasing trend in summer temperatures can be considered a potential risk, notably for human health and for economic and crop losses in the Adana Sub-region, including Çukurova, one of the most important agriculture areas of Turkey.

  12. Nuclear energy development in the 21st century: Global scenarios and regional trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-01-01

    The International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO) was launched in 2000, on the basis of a resolution of the IAEA General Conference (GC(44)/RES/21). INPRO helps ensure that sustainable nuclear energy is available in the twenty-first century and seeks to bring together all interested Member States - both technology holders and technology users - to consider joint actions to achieve desired innovations. As of July 2010, 30 countries and the European Commission are members of INPRO. Programme Area B of INPRO, Global Vision - Scenarios and Pathways to Sustainable Nuclear Power Development, is aimed at providing a better understanding of the role of nuclear energy in the context of long term sustainable development. Its objective is to develop global and regional nuclear energy scenarios on the basis of a scientific-technical pathway analysis that lead to a global vision on sustainable nuclear energy development in the twenty-first century, and to support Member States in working towards that vision. This report presents the results of a study undertaken under Programme Area B in INPRO on Nuclear Energy Development in the Twenty-first Century: Global Scenarios and Regional Trends Studies on Nuclear Capacity Growth and Material Flow between Regions. The report does not develop a global vision for nuclear deployment per se, but presents a limited set of technical scenarios of nuclear deployment and considers their implications. It considers a global energy supply system composed of several reactor and fuel cycle types available today and of fast reactors that may be developed in the future to illustrate a possible modelling approach to identify the potential role of interregional transfer of nuclear fuel resources in supporting the global growth of nuclear energy. The study was performed with the participation of sixteen experts from nine INPRO Member States and included a dynamic simulation of material flows in nuclear energy systems using

  13. Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2013: Market trends and projections to 2018

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-06-01

    Renewable electricity generation increased strongly worldwide in 2012, and deployment is occurring in a greater number of markets. However, the story of renewable energy development is becoming more complex. Short-term indicators in some regions of the globe have pointed to increased challenges. Despite remaining high, global new investment in renewable energy fell in 2012. Policy uncertainties, economic challenges, incentive reductions and competition from other energy sources clouded the investment outlook for some markets. Some countries and regions have faced difficulties in integrating variable renewables in their power grids. The renewable manufacturing industry, particularly solar and wind, entered a deeper period of restructuring and consolidation. Nevertheless, despite economic, policy and industry turbulence, the underlying fundamentals for renewable deployment remain robust. Even with challenges in some countries, more positive developments elsewhere continue to drive global growth. Competitive opportunities for renewables are emerging across traditional and new markets. While OECD countries remain a driver of renewable power development, non-OECD countries are increasingly accounting for overall growth. The roles of biofuels for transport and renewable heat are also increasing, though at somewhat slower rates than renewable electricity. The Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2013 assesses market trends for the renewable electricity, biofuels for transport and renewable heat sectors, identifying drivers and challenges to deployment, and making projections through 2018. The analysis features in-depth renewable electricity market analysis and forecasts for a slate of countries in the OECD and non-OECD. The report also presents an outlook for renewable electricity technologies, global biofuels supply, final energy use of renewables for heat and prospects for renewable investment.

  14. Climate related trends and meteorological conditions in European Arctic region - Porsanger fjord, Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cieszyńska, Agata; Stramska, Małgorzata

    2017-04-01

    Climate change has significant effect on the Arctic environment, where global trends are amplified. In this study, we have focused on the Porsanger fjord, located in European Arctic in the coastal region of the Barents Sea. We have analyzed climate related trends and meteorological condititions in the area of interest. Meteorological data included wind speed and direction, air temperature (AT) and precipitation from Era-Interim reanalysis (1986-2015) and local observations (1996-2015) from Lakselv (L, fjord's head area) and Honningsvaag (H - fjord's exit area). Our results confirm that this region is undergoing climate change related warming, which is indicated by rising air temperatures. Based on long-term reanalysis data, estimated trends for air temperature (AT) in Porsanger fjord are: 0.0536 °C year-1 at fjord's exit and 0.0428 °C year-1 at fjord's head. The results show that climate change does not seem to have a significant effect on long-term changes of wind speed and precipitation in the Porsanger fjord. Statistical analysis underlined significant spatial variability of meteorological conditions inside the fjord. For example, there are large differences in the annual cycle of AT with monthly mean January and July values of -8.4 and 12.6 °C in L and -2.5 and 10.1 °C in H. Dominant wind directions in Lakselv are S and SSE, while in Honningsvaag S and SSW directions prevail. Strong wind events (above 12 m s-1) are more frequent in H than in L. Annual cycle is characterized by stronger winds in winter and seasonality of wind direction. Precipitation for a given location can change by about 50% between years and varies spatially. Synoptic scale and within day variability are extremely intense in the area of interest. Air temperature and wind speed and direction can change dramatically in hours. In addition, regular patterns of the daily cycle of AT have different intensity in L and H. It is interesting to note that in spring/summer season, the daily cycle of

  15. Regional Integrated Silvopastoral Approaches to Ecosystem Management Project

    OpenAIRE

    CIPAV (Centre For Research on Sustainable Agricultural Production Systems); CATIE (Centro Agronomico Tropical de Investigacion y Ensenanza); NITLAPAN

    2007-01-01

    Metadata only record The Regional Integrated Silvopastoral Approaches to Ecosystem Management Project introduces the payment for environmental services approach to silvopastoral farmers in Colombia, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua. The objectives of the project are to "demonstrate and measure a) the effects the introduction of payment incentives for environmental services to farmers on their adoption of integrated silvopastoral farming systems in degraded pasture lands; and b) the resulting impr...

  16. RegionsТ Competition for Investment Projects in Forest Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentina Fedorovna Lapo

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The author considers the problem of competition between regions for investments. It is hypothesized that the presence of legislative stimulating benefits in a particular region, ceteris paribus, promotes investment flows in forest projects from other regions and is an instrumentl of inter-regional competition. To test the hypotheses the researcher uses a modified model with spatial weighted exogenous variables in order to assess the spatial effects. The obtained estimates indicate the presence of spatial effects, both negative (an inter-regional competition for investment and positive (agglomeration effects. The author argues that the process of inter-regional competition for investment in projects on forest development is caused by benefits under taxes and payments into the regional budget, regulation of pricing (including actions by natural and local monopolies and depreciation policy and solutions to put some forest projects in the list of priority ones. Along with this, the paper identifies agglomeration effects induced by a number of benefits: direct dealings in investment by financing or property contribution, subsidies, state guarantees, credit security and partial payment of interest

  17. Gastric cancer mortality trends in Spain, 1976-2005, differences by autonomous region and sex

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    García-Esquinas, Esther; Pérez-Gómez, Beatriz; Pollán, Marina; Boldo, Elena; Fernández-Navarro, Pablo; Lope, Virginia; Vidal, Enrique; López-Abente, Gonzalo; Aragonés, Nuria

    2009-01-01

    Gastric cancer is the second leading cause of oncologic death worldwide. One of the most noteworthy characteristics of this tumor's epidemiology is the marked decline reported in its incidence and mortality in almost every part of the globe in recent decades. This study sought to describe gastric cancer mortality time trends in Spain's regions for both sexes. Mortality data for the period 1976 through 2005 were obtained from the Spanish National Statistics Institute. Cases were identified using the International Classification of Diseases 9 th and 10 th revision (codes 151 and C16, respectively). Crude and standardized mortality rates were calculated by geographic area, sex, and five-year period. Joinpoint regression analyses were performed to ascertain whether changes in gastric cancer mortality trends had occurred, and to estimate the annual percent change by sex and geographic area. Gastric cancer mortality decreased across the study period, with the downward trend being most pronounced in women and in certain regions situated in the interior and north of mainland Spain. Across the study period, there was an overall decrease of 2.90% per annum among men and 3.65% per annum among women. Generally, regions in which the rate of decline was sharpest were those that had initially registered the highest rates. However, the rate of decline was not constant throughout the study period: joinpoint analysis detected a shift in trend for both sexes in the early 1980s. Gastric cancer mortality displayed in both sexes a downward trend during the study period, both nationally and regionally. The different trend in rates in the respective geographic areas translated as greater regional homogeneity in gastric cancer mortality by the end of the study period. In contrast, rates in women fell more than did those in men. The increasing differences between the sexes could indicate that some risk factors may be modifying the sex-specific pattern of this tumor

  18. Long-term trends in stratospheric ozone, temperature, and water vapor over the Indian region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. T. Akhil Raj

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available We have investigated the long-term trends in and variabilities of stratospheric ozone, water vapor and temperature over the Indian monsoon region using the long-term data constructed from multi-satellite (Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS MLS and HALOE, 1993–2005, Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS, 2004–2015, Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER, 2002–2015 on board TIMED (Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics Dynamics observations covering the period 1993–2015. We have selected two locations, namely, Trivandrum (8.4° N, 76.9° E and New Delhi (28° N, 77° E, covering northern and southern parts of the Indian region. We also used observations from another station, Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E, for comparison. A decreasing trend in ozone associated with NOx chemistry in the tropical middle stratosphere is found, and the trend turned to positive in the upper stratosphere. Temperature shows a cooling trend in the stratosphere, with a maximum around 37 km over Trivandrum (−1.71 ± 0.49 K decade−1 and New Delhi (−1.15 ± 0.55 K decade−1. The observed cooling trend in the stratosphere over Trivandrum and New Delhi is consistent with Gadanki lidar observations during 1998–2011. The water vapor shows a decreasing trend in the lower stratosphere and an increasing trend in the middle and upper stratosphere. A good correlation between N2O and O3 is found in the middle stratosphere (∼ 10 hPa and poor correlation in the lower stratosphere. There is not much regional difference in the water vapor and temperature trends. However, upper stratospheric ozone trends over Trivandrum and New Delhi are different. The trend analysis carried out by varying the initial year has shown significant changes in the estimated trend.

  19. Pneumonia mortality trends in all Brazilian geographical regions between 1996 and 2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosemeire de Olanda Ferraz

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective: To analyze the temporal trends in pneumonia mortality rates (standardized by age, using the 2010 population of Brazil as the standard in all Brazilian geographical regions between 1996 and 2012. Methods: This was an ecological time-series study examining secondary data from the Mortality Database maintained by the Information Technology Department of the Brazilian Unified Health Care System. Polynomial and joinpoint regression models, and corresponding 95% CIs, were used for trend analysis. Results: The pneumonia mortality rates in the South, Southeast, and Central-West showed a decreasing behavior until 2000, followed by increases, whereas, in the North and Northeast, they showed increasing trends virtually throughout the period studied. There was variation in annual percent change in pneumonia mortality rates in all regions except the North. The Central-West had the greatest decrease in annual percent change between 1996 and 2000, followed by an increase of the same magnitude until 2005. The 80 years and over age group was the one most influencing the trend behavior of pneumonia mortality rates in all regions. Conclusions: In general, pneumonia mortality trends reversed, with an important increase occurring in the years after 2000.

  20. Recent trends and drivers of regional sources and sinks of carbon dioxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sitch, S.; Friedlingstein, P.; Gruber, N.; Jones, S. D.; Murray-Tortarolo, G.; Ahlström, A.; Doney, S. C.; Graven, H.; Heinze, C.; Huntingford, C.; Levis, S.; Levy, P. E.; Lomas, M.; Poulter, B.; Viovy, N.; Zaehle, S.; Zeng, N.; Arneth, A.; Bonan, G.; Bopp, L.; Canadell, J. G.; Chevallier, F.; Ciais, P.; Ellis, R.; Gloor, M.; Peylin, P.; Piao, S. L.; Le Quéré, C.; Smith, B.; Zhu, Z.; Myneni, R.

    2015-02-01

    The land and ocean absorb on average just over half of the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) every year. These CO2 "sinks" are modulated by climate change and variability. Here we use a suite of nine dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and four ocean biogeochemical general circulation models (OBGCMs) to estimate trends driven by global and regional climate and atmospheric CO2 in land and oceanic CO2 exchanges with the atmosphere over the period 1990-2009, to attribute these trends to underlying processes in the models, and to quantify the uncertainty and level of inter-model agreement. The models were forced with reconstructed climate fields and observed global atmospheric CO2; land use and land cover changes are not included for the DGVMs. Over the period 1990-2009, the DGVMs simulate a mean global land carbon sink of -2.4 ± 0.7 Pg C yr-1 with a small significant trend of -0.06 ± 0.03 Pg C yr-2 (increasing sink). Over the more limited period 1990-2004, the ocean models simulate a mean ocean sink of -2.2 ± 0.2 Pg C yr-1 with a trend in the net C uptake that is indistinguishable from zero (-0.01 ± 0.02 Pg C yr-2). The two ocean models that extended the simulations until 2009 suggest a slightly stronger, but still small, trend of -0.02 ± 0.01 Pg C yr-2. Trends from land and ocean models compare favourably to the land greenness trends from remote sensing, atmospheric inversion results, and the residual land sink required to close the global carbon budget. Trends in the land sink are driven by increasing net primary production (NPP), whose statistically significant trend of 0.22 ± 0.08 Pg C yr-2 exceeds a significant trend in heterotrophic respiration of 0.16 ± 0.05 Pg C yr-2 - primarily as a consequence of widespread CO2 fertilisation of plant production. Most of the land-based trend in simulated net carbon uptake originates from natural ecosystems in the tropics (-0.04 ± 0.01 Pg C yr-2), with almost no trend over the northern land region

  1. Inflated Uncertainty in Multimodel-Based Regional Climate Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madsen, Marianne Sloth; Langen, Peter L.; Boberg, Fredrik; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg

    2017-11-01

    Multimodel ensembles are widely analyzed to estimate the range of future regional climate change projections. For an ensemble of climate models, the result is often portrayed by showing maps of the geographical distribution of the multimodel mean results and associated uncertainties represented by model spread at the grid point scale. Here we use a set of CMIP5 models to show that presenting statistics this way results in an overestimation of the projected range leading to physically implausible patterns of change on global but also on regional scales. We point out that similar inconsistencies occur in impact analyses relying on multimodel information extracted using statistics at the regional scale, for example, when a subset of CMIP models is selected to represent regional model spread. Consequently, the risk of unwanted impacts may be overestimated at larger scales as climate change impacts will never be realized as the worst (or best) case everywhere.

  2. Simulated trends of extreme climate indices for the Carpathian basin using outputs of different regional climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pongracz, R.; Bartholy, J.; Szabo, P.; Pieczka, I.; Torma, C. S.

    2009-04-01

    Regional climatological effects of global warming may be recognized not only in shifts of mean temperature and precipitation, but in the frequency or intensity changes of different climate extremes. Several climate extreme indices are analyzed and compared for the Carpathian basin (located in Central/Eastern Europe) following the guidelines suggested by the joint WMO-CCl/CLIVAR Working Group on climate change detection. Our statistical trend analysis includes the evaluation of several extreme temperature and precipitation indices, e.g., the numbers of severe cold days, winter days, frost days, cold days, warm days, summer days, hot days, extremely hot days, cold nights, warm nights, the intra-annual extreme temperature range, the heat wave duration, the growing season length, the number of wet days (using several threshold values defining extremes), the maximum number of consecutive dry days, the highest 1-day precipitation amount, the greatest 5-day rainfall total, the annual fraction due to extreme precipitation events, etc. In order to evaluate the future trends (2071-2100) in the Carpathian basin, daily values of meteorological variables are obtained from the outputs of various regional climate model (RCM) experiments accomplished in the frame of the completed EU-project PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects). Horizontal resolution of the applied RCMs is 50 km. Both scenarios A2 and B2 are used to compare past and future trends of the extreme climate indices for the Carpathian basin. Furthermore, fine-resolution climate experiments of two additional RCMs adapted and run at the Department of Meteorology, Eotvos Lorand University are used to extend the trend analysis of climate extremes for the Carpathian basin. (1) Model PRECIS (run at 25 km horizontal resolution) was developed at the UK Met Office, Hadley Centre, and it uses the boundary conditions from the HadCM3 GCM. (2) Model Reg

  3. Examination of Regional Trends in Cloud Properties over Surface Sites Derived from MODIS and AVHRR using the CERES Cloud Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, W. L., Jr.; Minnis, P.; Bedka, K. M.; Sun-Mack, S.; Chen, Y.; Doelling, D. R.; Kato, S.; Rutan, D. A.

    2017-12-01

    Recent studies analyzing long-term measurements of surface insolation at ground sites suggest that decadal-scale trends of increasing (brightening) and decreasing (dimming) downward solar flux have occurred at various times over the last century. Regional variations have been reported that range from near 0 Wm-2/decade to as large as 9 Wm-2/decade depending on the location and time period analyzed. The more significant trends have been attributed to changes in overhead clouds and aerosols, although quantifying their relative impacts using independent observations has been difficult, owing in part to a lack of consistent long-term measurements of cloud properties. This paper examines new satellite based records of cloud properties derived from MODIS (2000-present) and AVHRR (1981- present) data to infer cloud property trends over a number of surface radiation sites across the globe. The MODIS cloud algorithm was developed for the NASA Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project to provide a consistent record of cloud properties to help improve broadband radiation measurements and to better understand cloud radiative effects. The CERES-MODIS cloud algorithm has been modified to analyze other satellites including the AVHRR on the NOAA satellites. Compared to MODIS, obtaining consistent cloud properties over a long period from AVHRR is a much more significant challenge owing to the number of different satellites, instrument calibration uncertainties, orbital drift and other factors. Nevertheless, both the MODIS and AVHRR cloud properties will be analyzed to determine trends, and their level of consistency and correspondence with surface radiation trends derived from the ground-based radiometer data. It is anticipated that this initial study will contribute to an improved understanding of surface solar radiation trends and their relationship to clouds.

  4. Regional analysis of groundwater nitrate concentrations and trends in Denmark in regard to agricultural influence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, B.; Dalgaard, Tommy; Thorling, L.

    2012-01-01

    The act of balancing between an intensive agriculture with a high potential for nitrate pollution and a drinking water supply almost entirely based on groundwater is a challenge faced by Denmark and similar regions around the globe. Since the 1980s, regulations implemented by Danish farmers have...... succeeded in optimizing the N (nitrogen) management at farm level. As a result, the upward agricultural N surplus trend has been reversed, and the N surplus has reduced by 30–55% from 1980 to 2007 depending on region. The reduction in the N surplus served to reduce the losses of N from agriculture......, approximately 48% of the oxic monitored groundwater has nitrate concentrations above the groundwater and drinking water standards of 50 mg l−1. Furthermore, trend analyses show that 33% of all the monitored groundwater has upward nitrate trends, while only 18% of the youngest groundwater has upward nitrate...

  5. Understanding Climate Change Impacts in a Cholera Endemic Megacity: Disease Trends, Hydroclimatic Indicators and Near Future-Term Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akanda, A. S. S.; Hasan, M. A.; Serman, E. A.; Jutla, A.; Huq, A.; Colwell, R. R.

    2015-12-01

    The last three decades of surveillance data shows a drastic increase of cholera prevalence in the largest cholera-endemic city in the world - Dhaka, Bangladesh. While an endemic trend is getting stronger in the dry season, the post-monsoon season shows increased variability and is epidemic in nature. The pre-monsoon dry season is becoming the dominant cholera season of the year, followed by monsoon flood related propagation in later months of the year. Although the heavily populated and rapidly urbanizing Dhaka region has experienced noticeable shifts in pre monsoon temperature and precipitation patterns and subsequent monsoon variations, to date, there has not been any systematic study on linking the long-term disease trends with observed changes in hydroclimatic indicators. Here, we focus on the past 30-year dynamics of urban cholera prevalence in Dhaka with changes in climatic or anthropogenic forcings to develop projections for the next 30-year period. We focus on the dry and the wet season indicators individually, and develop trends of maximum rainfall intensity, lowest rainfall totals in the pre-monsoon period, number of consecutive dry days, number of wet days, and number of rainy days with greater than 500mm rainfall using a recently developed gridded data product - and compare with regional hydrology, flooding, water usage, changes in distribution systems, population growth and density in urban settlements, and frequency of natural disasters. We then use a bias correction method to develop the next 30 years projections of CMIP5 Regional Climate Model outputs and impacts on cholera prevalence using a probabilistic forecasting approach.

  6. Evaluating the Impact of Regional Marketing Projects on the Development of Regions from Different Stakeholder Perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kunze Kim-Kathrin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In the competition for economically attractive stakeholders, regions have to implement strategies to gain and adhere those interest groups. Empirical studies concerning the migration motivations show that it is not only labor market but also soft locational factors of the social environment, nature and landscape that are of high importance: A majority of the population is willing to move or rather stay at a special place because of such soft locational factors. This study examines the impact of regional marketing projects on the development of regions from the perspectives of inhabitants and tourists as well as general attributes to measure a region’s attractiveness from the perspective of high potentials. We argue that those projects that fit to the region and its unique selling propositions contribute to positioning and building location brand value. We show that projects have a socio-economic effect on the attitude towards regions and contribute to building location brand value. An analysis of group differences shows that the project influence on the region and region attractiveness are perceived in significantly different manner depending on the knowledge level of the stakeholder group. Consequently, one should increase the awareness of marketing activities and regions and focus on soft locational factors while establishing and positioning a region brand.

  7. Project-based production and project management: Findings and trends in research on temporary systems in multiple contexts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tinus Pretorius

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Globalisation is challenging almost every aspect of the political, economic, social and technological environment. Organisations, whether public or private, have to adapt their strategies and operations to stay competitive and efficient. Historically, organisations adopted project-based operations as a mode to stay competitive, although the applications tended to be the oneoff type of operations such as construction and system development projects (Edum-Fotwe & McCaffer, 2000. As the world changed from an industrially driven to a more knowledge driven economy and the pace of continuous change became more intense, organisations adopted a project-based mode of operations on a broader scale. The knowledge economy lead to the creation of many service orientated industries. Organisations started facing portfolios of projects where the nature of these projects differed in technological complexity, urgency, customer value and social impact (Gutjahr & Froeschl, 2013. Based on their experience with more technically orientated projects, organisations focused their attention more intensely on new project management methods, tools and processes and not necessarily on the human and organisational interfaces. This paradigm changed however, especially since the 1980s and more and more organisations adopted temporary organisational forms (Bakker, 2010 in order to improve their competitiveness. The contributions in this special edition of the South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences have a common focus on the importance of the human and organisational interface of project-based operations on project success. The purpose of this concluding article is to analyse the findings and recommendations in these papers and to detect trends and future research opportunities in the field of project-based operations.

  8. Trends in Tuberculosis Reported from the Appalachian Region: United States, 1993-2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, Ryan M.; Armstrong, Lori R.; Pratt, Robert H.; Kammerer, J. Steve; Iademarco, Michael F.

    2008-01-01

    Context: Appalachia has been characterized by its poverty, a factor associated with tuberculosis, yet little is known about the disease in this region. Purpose: To determine whether Appalachian tuberculosis risk factors, trends, and rates differ from the rest of the United States. Methods: Analysis of tuberculosis cases reported to the Centers for…

  9. Temperature and Heat-Related Mortality Trends in the Sonoran and Mojave Desert Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Polioptro F. Martinez-Austria

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Extreme temperatures and heat wave trends in five cities within the Sonoran Desert region (e.g., Tucson and Phoenix, Arizona, in the United States and Ciudad Obregon and San Luis Rio Colorado, Sonora; and Mexicali, Baja California, in Mexico and one city within the Mojave Desert region (e.g., Las Vegas, Nevada were assessed using field data collected from 1950 to 2014. Instead of being selected by watershed, the cities were selected because they are part of the same arid climatic region. The data were analyzed for maximum temperature increases and the trends were confirmed statistically using Spearman’s nonparametric test. Temperature trends were correlated with the mortality information related with extreme heat events in the region. The results showed a clear trend of increasing maximum temperatures during the months of June, July, and August for five of the six cities and statically confirmed using Spearman’s rho values. Las Vegas was the only city where the temperature increase was not confirmed using Spearman’s test, probably because it is geographically located outside of the Sonoran Desert or because of its proximity to the Hoover Dam. The relationship between mortality and temperature was analyzed for the cities of Mexicali, Mexico and Phoenix. Arizona.

  10. Future risk assessment by estimating historical heat wave trends with projected heat accumulation using SimCLIM climate model in Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasim, Wajid; Amin, Asad; Fahad, Shah; Awais, Muhammad; Khan, Naeem; Mubeen, Muhammad; Wahid, Abdul; Turan, Veysel; Rehman, Muhammad Habibur; Ihsan, Muhammad Zahid; Ahmad, Shakeel; Hussain, Sajjad; Mian, Ishaq Ahmad; Khan, Bushra; Jamal, Yousaf

    2018-06-01

    Climate change has adverse effects at global, regional and local level. Heat wave events have serious contribution for global warming and natural hazards in Pakistan. Historical (1997-2015) heat wave were analyzed over different provinces (Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan) of Pakistan to identify the maximum temperature trend. Heat accumulation in Pakistan were simulated by the General Circulation Model (GCM) combined with 3 GHG (Green House Gases) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (RCP-4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) by using SimCLIM model (statistical downscaling model for future trend projections). Heat accumulation was projected for year 2030, 2060, and 2090 for seasonal and annual analysis in Pakistan. Heat accumulation were projected to increase by the baseline year (1995) was represented in percentage change. Projection shows that Sindh and southern Punjab was mostly affected by heat accumulation. This study identified the rising trend of heat wave over the period (1997-2015) for Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan (provinces of Pakistan), which identified that most of the meteorological stations in Punjab and Sindh are highly prone to heat waves. According to model projection; future trend of annual heat accumulation, in 2030 was increased 17%, 26%, and 32% but for 2060 the trends were reported by 54%, 49%, and 86% for 2090 showed highest upto 62%, 75%, and 140% for RCP-4.5, RCP-6.0, and RCP-8.5, respectively. While seasonal trends of heat accumulation were projected to maximum values for monsoon and followed by pre-monsoon and post monsoon. Heat accumulation in monsoon may affect the agricultural activities in the region under study.

  11. Talking in Taejon : regional cooperative agreement project formulation meeting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McEwan, A. C.

    1997-01-01

    The International Atomic Energy Agency as part of its Regional Cooperative Agreement (RCA) with countries in east Asia and the neighboring Pacific, has had a project on strengthening radiation protection infrastructures operating for some years. This project has arranged training courses, workshops and other activities on a range of topics related to establishing or improving radiation protection measures and safety of radiation sources in member states of the region. A second 5 year phase of planned activities is to be concluded during 1997, and the value of the project is such that member coutntries proposed its continuation for a further 5 year period commencing in 1998. For this purpose a Task Group took the lead in assembling and evaluating proposals for consideration and approval at a meeting of national coordinators for the project held in Taejon Korea, 24-28 February. The RCA project for Phase III will be titled Enhancement and Harmonisation of Radiation Protection. The meeting of national coordinators from the region represents a unique opportunity for information sharing and cooperation in radiation protection betweem countries. (author)

  12. Spatial and Temporal Trends of Snowfall in Central New York - A Lake Effect Dominated Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartnett, Justin Joseph

    Central New York is located in one of the snowiest regions in the United States, with the city of Syracuse, New York the snowiest metropolis in the nation. Snowfall in the region generally begins in mid-November and lasts until late-March. Snow accumulation occurs from a multitude of conditions: frontal systems, mid-latitude cyclones, Nor'easters, and most notably lake-effect storms. Lake effect snowfall (LES) is a difficult parameter to forecast due to the isolated and highly variable nature of the storm. Consequently, studies have attempted to determine changes in snowfall for lake-effect dominated regions. Annual snowfall patterns are of particular concern as seasonal snowfall totals are vital for water resources, winter businesses, agriculture, government and state agencies, and much more. Through the use of snowfall, temperature, precipitation, and location data from the National Weather Service's Cooperative Observer Program (COOP), spatial and temporal changes in snowfall for Central New York were determined. In order to determine climatic changes in snowfall, statistical analyses were performed (i.e. least squares estimation, correlations, principal component analyses, etc.) and spatial maps analyzed. Once snowfall trends were determined, factors influencing the trends were examined. Long-term snowfall trends for CNY were positive for original stations (˜0.46 +/- 0.20 in. yr -1) and homogenously filtered stations (0.23 +/- 0.20 in. yr -1). However, snowfall trends for shorter time-increments within the long-term period were not consistent, as positive, negative, and neutral trends were calculated. Regional differences in snowfall trends were observed for CNY as typical lake-effect areas (northern counties, the Tug Hill Plateau and the Southern Hills) experienced larger snowfall trends than areas less dominated by LES. Typical lake-effect months (December - February) experienced the greatest snowfall trend in CNY compared to other winter months. The

  13. 1990-2016 surface solar radiation variability and trend over the Piedmont region (northwest Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manara, Veronica; Bassi, Manuela; Brunetti, Michele; Cagnazzi, Barbara; Maugeri, Maurizio

    2018-05-01

    A new surface solar radiation database of 74 daily series is set up for the Piedmont region (northwest Italy) for the 1990-2016 period. All the series are subjected to a detailed quality control, homogenization and gap-filling procedure and are transformed into relative annual/seasonal anomaly series. Finally, a gridded version (0.5°×0.5°) of the database is generated. The resulting series show an increasing tendency of about + 2.5% per decade at annual scale, with strongest trend in autumn (+ 4% per decade). The only exception is winter, showing a negative but not significant trend. Considering the plain and mountain mean series, the trends are more intense for low than for high elevations with a negative vertical gradient of about - 0.03% per decade per 100 m at annual scale and values up to - 0.07% per decade per 100 m in spring. Focusing on clear days only (selected by CM SAF ClOud fractional cover dataset from METeosat first and second generation—Edition 1 satellite data over the 1991-2015 period), trend significance strongly increases and both low and high elevation records exhibit a positive trend in all seasons. However, the trends result slightly lower than for all-sky days (with the only exception of winter). The differences observed under clear-sky conditions between low and high elevations are more pronounced in winter, where the trend shows a negative vertical gradient of about - 0.1% per decade every 100 m. Overall, this paper shows how a high station density allows performing a more detailed quality control thanks to the higher performances in detecting the inhomogeneities with higher data availability and capturing regional peculiarities otherwise impossible to observe.

  14. MODERN TRENDS OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE REGION: THE CASE OF KYIV REGION

    OpenAIRE

    Kostyk Yevhenii

    2018-01-01

    The subject of the study is the social sector of the economy; entrepreneurship and investment activity; real sector of the economy; foreign economic activity and financial resources of Kyiv region. The purpose of this paper is to study theoretical foundations and to conduct an analysis of socio-economic development of Kyiv region. Research methods. The author applies the methods of abstraction, analysis and synthesis, systematization and generalization to clarify the conceptual appara...

  15. Inferring regional vertical crustal velocities from averaged relative sea level trends: A proof of concept

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bâki Iz H.

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This study demonstrates that relative sea level trends calculated from long-term tide gauge records can be used to estimate relative vertical crustal velocities in a region with high accuracy. A comparison of the weighted averages of the relative sea level trends estimated at six tide gauge stations in two clusters along the Eastern coast of United States, in Florida and in Maryland, reveals a statistically significant regional vertical crustal motion of Maryland with respect to Florida with a subsidence rate of −1.15±0.15 mm/yr identified predominantly due to the ongoing glacial isostatic adjustment process. The estimate is a consilience value to validate vertical crustal velocities calculated from GPS time series as well as towards constraining predictive GIA models in these regions.

  16. Assessing future vegetation trends and restoration prospects in the Karst regions of Southwest China

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tong, Xiaowei; Wang, Kelin; Brandt, Martin Stefan

    2016-01-01

    for conservation management by monitoring vegetation dynamics, projecting the persistence of vegetation trends and identifying areas of interest for upcoming restoration measures. In this study, we use MODIS satellite time series (2001-2013) and the Hurst exponent to classify the study area (Guizhou and Guangxi......To alleviate the severe rocky desertification and improve the ecological conditions in Southwest China, the national and local Chinese governments have implemented a series of Ecological Restoration Projects since the late 1990s. In this context, remote sensing can be a valuable tool...... on the restoration prospects and associated uncertainty of different terrain classes found in the study area. The results show that 69% of the observed trends are persistent beyond 2013, with 57% being stable, 10% positive, 5% anti-persistent positive, 3% negative, 1% anti-persistent negative and 24% uncertain. Most...

  17. Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, M. M.; Orth, R.; Cheruy, F.; Hagemann, S.; Lorenz, R.; Hurk, B. J. J. M.; Seneviratne, S. I.

    2017-02-01

    Regional hot extremes are projected to increase more strongly than global mean temperature, with substantially larger changes than 2°C even if global warming is limited to this level. We investigate the role of soil moisture-temperature feedbacks for this response based on multimodel experiments for the 21st century with either interactive or fixed (late 20th century mean seasonal cycle) soil moisture. We analyze changes in the hottest days in each year in both sets of experiments, relate them to the global mean temperature increase, and investigate processes leading to these changes. We find that soil moisture-temperature feedbacks significantly contribute to the amplified warming of the hottest days compared to that of global mean temperature. This contribution reaches more than 70% in Central Europe and Central North America. Soil moisture trends are more important for this response than short-term soil moisture variability. These results are relevant for reducing uncertainties in regional temperature projections.

  18. Managing water, fish and power : trends in environmental regulation of hydropower projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bursey, D.; McLean, J.; Longe, R. [Bull, Housser and Tupper LLP, Vancouver, BC (Canada)

    2009-07-01

    Recent trends in federal legislation related to the environmental impacts of hydroelectric power projects were reviewed. The study focused on a discussion of recent and proposed amendments to the Species at Risk Act, the Fisheries Act, and the Navigable Waters Protection Act. Challenges associated with risk management, the public perception of risk, and the communication of decisions related to the management and protection of aquatic ecosystems were discussed. The Brilliant Expansion Power Project (BRX) examined the interactions with white sturgeon on the Kootenay River in British Columbia (BC). A monitoring program was conducted during the project's construction in order to reduce the risk to sturgeon from blasting. A habitat enhancement feature was also constructed. It was concluded that the mitigation strategies used during the BRX project provide a useful example of innovation and adaptive management. 19 refs.

  19. Anthropogenic hydrological cycle disturbance at a regional scale: State-wide evapotranspiration trends (1979-2015) across Nebraska, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szilagyi, Jozsef

    2018-02-01

    Trends in monthly evapotranspiration (ET) rates across Nebraska, the most intensely irrigated state within the US, were calculated by the calibration-free version of the nonlinear complementary relationship of evaporation over the 1979-2015 period utilizing North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) net radiation, 10-m wind velocity, as well as Parameter Regression Independent Slope Model (PRISM) air- and dew-point temperature data. State-averaged modeled ET rates rose by 5.5 mm decade-1 due to the presence of wide-spread large-scale irrigation projects in accordance with a 2.4 mm decade-1 increase in PRISM precipitation (P) and a simultaneous -2.8 mm decade-1 drop in United States Geological Survey's state-averaged annual streamflow rates, raising the state-wide ET to P ratio from 0.89 to 0.91 over the modeled time-period. ET rates over irrigated crops increased by 7 mm decade-1 despite a -4.4 mm decade-1 drop in precipitation rates. A similar increase in ET rates (6 mm decade-1) required 8.1 mm decade-1 increase in precipitation rates across the non-irrigated Sand Hills of Nebraska. Published NARR ET rates are unable to pick up this unusual regional trend. Since an increase in precipitation rates should normally decrease the ET ratio, as predicted by the Budyko curve, this study yields evidence on how dramatically sustained large-scale irrigation can alter the regional hydrologic cycle not only through a) trivially depleting streamflow rates and/or lowering groundwater table levels; b) suppressing precipitation locally (while enhancing it a long distance downwind), but also; c) reversing the trajectory of the regional ET ratio under generally increasing trends of precipitation.

  20. Current state and development trends of the agroindustrial complex and rural territories of Perm Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gennadiy Vladimirovich Klimenkov

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Analysis of regional agricultural sector status and rural areas of Perm in 1990-2011 years indicates a systemic crisis of agriculture in Perm region, which is largely determined by the fact that Perm region has no strategy or strategic plan and program for sustainable agricultural sector and rural areas of Perm region development, there is no scheme of territorial development and master plans of territorial development with the development of agro-industrial complex of Perm region. In these circumstances, there is a steady downward trend in production, weakening and bankruptcy of enterprises, social impoverishment of rural areas, appearance of many of irreversible processes (sale and neglect of agricultural land, demographic problems associated with low living standards, population migration, policy optimization in the areas of education and health, union of territories, policy of depopulation of territories etc.. This paper presents main recommendations for improving the situation in agriculture of Perm region.

  1. Updating temperature and salinity mean values and trends in the Western Mediterranean: The RADMED project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vargas-Yáñez, M.; García-Martínez, M. C.; Moya, F.; Balbín, R.; López-Jurado, J. L.; Serra, M.; Zunino, P.; Pascual, J.; Salat, J.

    2017-09-01

    The RADMED project is devoted to the implementation and maintenance of a multidisciplinary monitoring system around the Spanish Mediterranean waters. This observing system is based on periodic multidisciplinary cruises covering the coastal waters, continental shelf and slope waters and some deep stations (>2000 m) from the Westernmost Alboran Sea to Barcelona in the Catalan Sea, including the Balearic Islands. This project was launched in 2007 unifying and extending some previous monitoring projects which had a more reduced geographical coverage. Some of the time series currently available extend from 1992, while the more recent ones were initiated in 2007. The present work updates the available time series up to 2015 (included) and shows the capability of these time series for two main purposes: the calculation of mean values for the properties of main water masses around the Spanish Mediterranean, and the study of the interannual and decadal variability of such properties. The data set provided by the RADMED project has been merged with historical data from the MEDAR/MEDATLAS data base for the calculation of temperature and salinity trends from 1900 to 2015. The analysis of these time series shows that the intermediate and deep layers of the Western Mediterranean have increased their temperature and salinity with an acceleration of the warming and salting trends from 1943. Trends for the heat absorbed by the water column for the 1943-2015 period, range between 0.2 and 0.6 W/m2 depending on the used methodology. The temperature and salinity trends for the same period and for the intermediate layer are 0.002 °C/yr and 0.001 yr-1 respectively. Deep layers warmed and increased their salinity at a rate of 0.004 °C/yr and 0.001 yr-1.

  2. Photovoltaic System Pricing Trends. Historical, Recent, and Near-Term Projections, 2015 Edition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Feldman, David [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Barbose, Galen [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Margolis, Robert [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bolinger, Mark [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Chung, Donald [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Fu, Ran [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Seel, Joachim [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Davidson, Carolyn [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Darghouth, Naïm [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Wiser, Ryan [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2015-08-25

    This presentation, based on research at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, provides a high-level overview of historical, recent, and projected near-term PV pricing trends in the United States focusing on the installed price of PV systems. It also attempts to provide clarity surrounding the wide variety of potentially conflicting data available about PV system prices. This PowerPoint is the fourth edition from this series.

  3. Spatial patterns and recent trends in the climate of tropical rainforest regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malhi, Yadvinder; Wright, James

    2004-03-29

    We present an analysis of the mean climate and climatic trends of tropical rainforest regions over the period 1960-1998, with the aid of explicit maps of forest cover and climatological databases. Until the mid-1970s most regions showed little trend in temperature, and the western Amazon experienced a net cooling probably associated with an interdecadal oscillation. Since the mid-1970s, all tropical rainforest regions have experienced a strong warming at a mean rate of 0.26 +/- 0.05 degrees C per decade, in synchrony with a global rise in temperature that has been attributed to the anthropogenic greenhouse effect. Over the study period, precipitation appears to have declined in tropical rainforest regions at a rate of 1.0 +/- 0.8% per decade (p Africa (at 3-4% per decade), declining marginally in tropical Asia and showing no significant trend in Amazonia. There is no evidence so far of a decline in precipitation in eastern Amazonia, a region thought vulnerable to climate-change-induced drying. The strong drying trend in Africa suggests that this should be a priority study region for understanding the impact of drought on tropical rainforests. We develop and use a dry-season index to study variations in the length and intensity of the dry season. Only African and Indian tropical rainforests appear to have seen a significant increase in dry-season intensity. In terms of interannual variability, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the primary driver of temperature variations across the tropics and of precipitation fluctuations for large areas of the Americas and southeast Asia. The relation between ENSO and tropical African precipitation appears less direct.

  4. MORTALITY TRENDS FOR MOST COMMON TYPES OF CANCER IN SILESIA VOIVODESHIP IN SHORT TERM PROJECTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brunon Zemła

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: The incidence of morbidity and mortality of cancers rapidly increase in the world and so it is in case of Poland and Silesia Voivodeship. Therefore an attempt is made to assess this phenomenon in projection scale within Silesia Voivodeship. Materials and methods: The time-trends analysis of the six most common types of cancer have been selected: stomach, colorectal, pancreas and lung (among both genders, prostate (among males and breast (among females. For the period 1990–2008 age standardized mortality rates have been determined. Time-trends in mortality with employment of joinpoint regression have been estimated and depending on trends linear or log-linear regression models were used which set up the base for short-term projection. Results: For the year 2018 projection values of mortality rates among males will drop (with the exception of lung and colorectal cancers. For prostate cancer – the values will be increasing. Among females stomach mortality rates will drop, but again lung cancer mortality rate will double in comparison to data for 1990. Conclusions: 1. The prognostic number of death to 2018 year concern all studied cancer increasing, for exept stomach cancer. 2. Especially will be increasing cancer mortality standardized rates for lung cancer among females and prostate and colorectal cancers among males.

  5. Regional climate projections for Northeast India: an appraisal from CORDEX South Asia experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, D.; Dimri, A. P.

    2017-11-01

    An appraisal of the recent changes in the present climate (1970-2005) followed by the possible future (2006-2100) changes in the climate has been carried out in the current study using the observations and regional climate model (REMO) over the Northeast Indian region. The regional climate model simulation has been used from the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) South Asia framework. A consistent warming for the winter (December, January, and February (DJF)) and post-monsoon (October and November (ON)) has been observed for the present climate especially in the northern and eastern parts of the region. The changes in the near future (2020-2049) and far future (2070-2099) temperature climatology suggest a rise in temperature by 3-8 °C across different representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The rate of long-term (1970-2099) increase in temperature has been found ranging between 0.01 and 0.07 °C/year across the region in the least emission (RCP2.6) to strongest emission (RCP8.5) scenarios. The daily mean precipitation statistics suggests an overall increasing trends of precipitation during the pre-monsoon (March, April, and May (MAM)) for the present across the region with a mixed trend in other seasons. A change in daily mean precipitation ranging from - 60% (during winter) to + 40% during post-monsoon has been projected by the model across different RCPs. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 show a strong deficit in precipitation in the warmer climate across the region as compared to RCP2.6. This fact is also confirmed from the long-term trend of precipitation where a consistent decreasing trend dominates in the RCP4.5- and RCP8.5-simulated precipitations by the end of the twenty-first century. A large model bias in temperature and precipitation along with high amount of uncertainty is associated with the model simulations; thus, in order to use the projections, a more careful approach to improve the utility of downscaled product should be adopted.

  6. Development of the business area construction and energy of EnergieRegion Nuernberg. Transfer from project management to a regional network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seiverth, A.

    2006-01-01

    The association EnergieRegion Nuernberg is a regional authority network, which is employed with the promotion of sustainable handling of the factor energy in the region Nuernberg and with the proliferation of this region as internationally recognized location for energy engineering, energy industry and energy science. The intention is to use the important industrial, service-oriented and scientific potential optimally. For this reason a functional co-ordination and communication platform had to be created for the cross-linking of the appropriate participants from economics, research and public administration. Therefore, the author of the contribution under consideration accompanies the development process of the business field construction and energy of this association in the background of the current trends in the construction and energy sector in the region Nuernberg. Under this aspect, the author reports on the following aspects: (a) Success factors of the project management in a regional network; (b) Operationalisation of the success of the project by means of a model; (c) Analysis of the different aspects of energetic measures; (d) Determination of chances and risks of the range building and energy in the region Nuernberg; (e) Comparison of the success of the model projects with the model for the determination of project success; (f) Determination of strengths and weaknesses of the project management in the business field construction and energy of the energy region Nuernberg

  7. Regional climate projections for the MENA-CORDEX domain: analysis of projected temperature and precipitation changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hänsler, Andreas; Weber, Torsten; Eggert, Bastian; Saeed, Fahad; Jacob, Daniela

    2014-05-01

    Within the CORDEX initiative a multi-model suite of regionalized climate change information will be made available for several regions of the world. The German Climate Service Center (CSC) is taking part in this initiative by applying the regional climate model REMO to downscale global climate projections of different coupled general circulation models (GCMs) for several CORDEX domains. Also for the MENA-CORDEX domain, a set of regional climate change projections has been established at the CSC by downscaling CMIP5 projections of the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) for the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with the regional model REMO for the time period from 1950 to 2100 to a horizontal resolution of 0.44 degree. In this study we investigate projected changes in future climate conditions over the domain towards the end of the 21st century. Focus in the analysis is given to projected changes in the temperature and rainfall characteristics and their differences for the two scenarios will be highlighted.

  8. Regional absolute conductivity reconstruction using projected current density in MREIT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sajib, Saurav Z K; Kim, Hyung Joong; Woo, Eung Je; Kwon, Oh In

    2012-01-01

    Magnetic resonance electrical impedance tomography (MREIT) is a non-invasive technique for imaging the internal conductivity distribution in tissue within an MRI scanner, utilizing the magnetic flux density, which is introduced when a current is injected into the tissue from external electrodes. This magnetic flux alters the MRI signal, so that appropriate reconstruction can provide a map of the additional z-component of the magnetic field (B z ) as well as the internal current density distribution that created it. To extract the internal electrical properties of the subject, including the conductivity and/or the current density distribution, MREIT techniques use the relationship between the external injection current and the z-component of the magnetic flux density B = (B x , B y , B z ). The tissue studied typically contains defective regions, regions with a low MRI signal and/or low MRI signal-to-noise-ratio, due to the low density of nuclear magnetic resonance spins, short T 2 or T* 2 relaxation times, as well as regions with very low electrical conductivity, through which very little current traverses. These defective regions provide noisy B z data, which can severely degrade the overall reconstructed conductivity distribution. Injecting two independent currents through surface electrodes, this paper proposes a new direct method to reconstruct a regional absolute isotropic conductivity distribution in a region of interest (ROI) while avoiding the defective regions. First, the proposed method reconstructs the contrast of conductivity using the transversal J-substitution algorithm, which blocks the propagation of severe accumulated noise from the defective region to the ROI. Second, the proposed method reconstructs the regional projected current density using the relationships between the internal current density, which stems from a current injection on the surface, and the measured B z data. Combining the contrast conductivity distribution in the entire imaging

  9. Time trend by region of suicides and suicidal thoughts among Greenland Inuit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Bjerregaard

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: Suicides remain a major public health problem in Greenland. Their increase coincides with the modernization since 1950. Serious suicidal thoughts are reported by a significant proportion of participants in countrywide surveys. Objective: To analyze the time trend by region of suicides and suicidal thoughts among the Inuit in Greenland. Design: Data included the Greenland registry of causes of death for 1970–2011 and 2 cross-sectional health surveys carried out in 1993–1994 and 2005–2010 with 1,580 and 3,102 Inuit participants, respectively. Results: Suicide rates were higher among men than women while the prevalence of suicidal thoughts was higher among women. Suicide rates for men and women together increased from 1960 to 1980 and have remained around 100 per 100,000 person-years since then. The regional pattern of time trend for suicide rates varied with an early peak in the capital, a continued increase to very high rates in remote East and North Greenland and a slow increase in villages relative to towns on the West Coast. Suicidal thoughts followed the regional pattern for completed suicides. Especially for women there was a noticeable increasing trend in the villages. The relative risk for suicide was highest among those who reported suicidal thoughts, but most suicides happened outside this high-risk group. Conclusion: Suicide rates and the prevalence of suicidal thoughts remain high in Greenland but different regional trends point towards an increased marginalization between towns on the central West Coast, villages and East and North Greenland. Different temporal patterns call for different regional strategies of prevention.

  10. Change features and regional distribution of temperature trend and variability joint mode in mainland China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xi; Li, Ning; Zhang, Zhengtao; Feng, Jieling; Wang, Ye

    2018-05-01

    Adaption for temperature should be suitable to local conditions for regional differences in temperature change features. This paper proposed to utilize nine temperature modes that joint the trend (increasing/decreasing/unchanged) with variability (intensifying/weakening/unchanged) to investigate features of temperature change in mainland China. Monthly temperature data over the period 1960-2013 were obtained from 522 national basic and reference meteorological stations. Here, temperature trend (TT) was reflected by the trend of mean annual temperature (MAT) and the uptrend (downtrend) of inter-monthly sliding standard deviation (SSD) series with a sliding length of 29 years (348 months) was used for representing the intensification (weakening) of temperature variability (TV). The Mann-Kendall method and the least squares method were applied to assess the significance and quantify the magnitude of trend in MAT and SSD time series, respectively. The results show that there is a consistent warming trend throughout the country except for only three stations in which a cooling trend is identified. Moreover, the overall increasing rate in the north of 35° N is the highest, over 0.4 °C/decade for most stations. TV is weakened for almost 98% of the stations, indicating the low instability of temperature at a national scale. Finally, temperature mode (TM), for more than 90% of the stations, is the combination of an increasing TT with a weakened TV (mode 8). So, it is more important for people to adapt to the increasing temperature in these regions. Compared to using annual temperature data to calculate SSD, monthly data can accurately reflect the inter-monthly change of temperature and reserve more initial characteristics of temperature.

  11. The hELENa project - II. Abundance distribution trends of early-type galaxies: from dwarfs to giants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sybilska, A.; Kuntschner, H.; van de Ven, G.; Vazdekis, A.; Falcón-Barroso, J.; Peletier, R. F.; Lisker, T.

    2018-06-01

    In this second paper of The role of Environment in shaping Low-mass Early-type Nearby galaxies (hELENa) series we study [Mg/Fe] abundance distribution trends of early-type galaxies (ETGs) observed with the Spectrographic Areal Unit for Research on Optical Nebulae integral field unit, spanning a wide range in mass and local environment densities: 20 low-mass early types (dEs) of Sybilska et al. and 258 massive early types (ETGs) of the ATLAS3D project, all homogeneously reduced and analysed. We show that the [Mg/Fe] ratios scale with velocity dispersion (σ) at fixed [Fe/H] and that they evolve with [Fe/H] along similar paths for all early types, grouped in bins of increasing local and global σ, as well as the second velocity moment Vrms, indicating a common inside-out formation pattern. We then place our dEs on the [Mg/Fe] versus [Fe/H] diagram of Local Group galaxies and show that dEs occupy the same region and show a similar trend line slope in the diagram as the high-metallicity stars of the Milky Way and the Large Magellanic Cloud. This finding extends the similar trend found for dwarf spheroidal versus dwarf irregular galaxies and supports the notion that dEs have evolved from late-type galaxies that have lost their gas at a point of their evolution, which likely coincided with them entering denser environments.

  12. Ensemble of regional climate model projections for Ireland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolan, Paul; McGrath, Ray

    2016-04-01

    The method of Regional Climate Modelling (RCM) was employed to assess the impacts of a warming climate on the mid-21st-century climate of Ireland. The RCM simulations were run at high spatial resolution, up to 4 km, thus allowing a better evaluation of the local effects of climate change. Simulations were run for a reference period 1981-2000 and future period 2041-2060. Differences between the two periods provide a measure of climate change. To address the issue of uncertainty, a multi-model ensemble approach was employed. Specifically, the future climate of Ireland was simulated using three different RCMs, driven by four Global Climate Models (GCMs). To account for the uncertainty in future emissions, a number of SRES (B1, A1B, A2) and RCP (4.5, 8.5) emission scenarios were used to simulate the future climate. Through the ensemble approach, the uncertainty in the RCM projections can be partially quantified, thus providing a measure of confidence in the predictions. In addition, likelihood values can be assigned to the projections. The RCMs used in this work are the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling-Climate Limited-area Modelling (COSMO-CLM, versions 3 and 4) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The GCMs used are the Max Planck Institute's ECHAM5, the UK Met Office's HadGEM2-ES, the CGCM3.1 model from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and the EC-Earth consortium GCM. The projections for mid-century indicate an increase of 1-1.6°C in mean annual temperatures, with the largest increases seen in the east of the country. Warming is enhanced for the extremes (i.e. hot or cold days), with the warmest 5% of daily maximum summer temperatures projected to increase by 0.7-2.6°C. The coldest 5% of night-time temperatures in winter are projected to rise by 1.1-3.1°C. Averaged over the whole country, the number of frost days is projected to decrease by over 50%. The projections indicate an average increase in the length of the growing season

  13. [Variation trends of the vegetations in distribution region of Amur tiger based on MODIS NDVI].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hua-Ru; Wang, Tian-Ming; Ge, Han-Ping

    2012-10-01

    By using the averaged 250 m MODIS NDVI data in growth seasons of 2000-2010 and the approach of ordinary linear regression, this paper analyzed the variation trends of the vegetations in the distribution region of Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica), the Far East region of Russia and the eastern part of Northeast China, as well as the relationships between these variation trends and the anthropogenic activities. In 2000 - 2010, the areas with significantly decreased NDVI were sparsely distributed and accounted for 9.6% of the total, while the areas with significantly increased NDVI were mainly concentrated in the central part of northern Russia Far East Region and only accounted for 0.5% of the total. The percentage of the areas with significantly decreased NDVI in the distribution region of Amur tiger was slightly higher than that in the whole study region. The areas with significantly decreased NDVI were mainly distributed in the places of low elevation, gentle slope, and close to roads/railroads. The number of the pixels with significantly decreased NDVI increased with the increase of the nearest distance to residential locations first, and then decreased gradually. The significant decrease of the NDVI was closely related to the anthropogenic activities, and thus, to adopt effective measures to reduce human disturbances could control the vegetation degradation, and further, provide sustainable basis for the protection of Amur tiger and the conservation of the biodiversity in the studied region.

  14. Trends in body weight for 7-year boys from different environmental sites of copper mining region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paweł Posłuszny

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Background. The epidemic of the XXI century – a disease that threatens through development of other ailments, caused by pathological accumulation of adipose tissue in the body, beyond the physiological needs and adaptability – the obesity. A significant number of diseases are largely a consequence of obesity, and despite the fact that it mainly occurs in adults, that problem may start influencing our health from an early age. In childhood and adolescence the most common form is simple obesity, and frequency of occurrence shows significant growing trend, regardless of gender. The prevalence of obesity in early stages of life is associated with a significant probability of a continuation of or increase in adulthood, therefore one should look for the onset of obesity in childhood. The results of studies and projections show steady growth in the number of overweight and obese in populations of developing countries and developed economies, including Poland. Therefore it is important to continuously monitor body weight and degree of fatness of children and adolescents. Material and methods. The study was conducted in 2001 and 2002 in six rural primary schools from the Copper Mining Region and in all three primary schools from Polkowice. More measurements were made in 2008 and 2010. The total number of 7-year old boys was 277. The measurements covered Body height, Body weight, Lean Body Mass, Total Body Water and Total Body Fat. These data were collected with the use of anthropometer, body scale and FUTREX 5000, the optical body composition analyzer. Measurements were necessary to get the BMI. Results. Based on analysis, it was observed that the height and weight of 7-year-old boys from the Copper Mining Region has increased compared to the first series of tests. The BMI and amount of body fat have also increased. This situation was observed both in rural and urban environment. There was a difference in body fat percentage. Lower values were

  15. Time trend by region of suicides and suicidal thoughts among Greenland Inuit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerregaard, Peter; Larsen, Christina Viskum Lytken

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Suicides remain a major public health problem in Greenland. Their increase coincides with the modernization since 1950. Serious suicidal thoughts are reported by a significant proportion of participants in countrywide surveys. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the time trend by region of suicides...... and suicidal thoughts among the Inuit in Greenland. DESIGN: Data included the Greenland registry of causes of death for 1970-2011 and 2 cross-sectional health surveys carried out in 1993-1994 and 2005-2010 with 1,580 and 3,102 Inuit participants, respectively. RESULTS: Suicide rates were higher among men than...... women while the prevalence of suicidal thoughts was higher among women. Suicide rates for men and women together increased from 1960 to 1980 and have remained around 100 per 100,000 person-years since then. The regional pattern of time trend for suicide rates varied with an early peak in the capital...

  16. The Vegetation Trends and Drivers in Beijing-Tianjing Region from 1982 TO 2013 Based on Time Series Gimms NDVI3g

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, S.; Tian, H.; Wang, X.; Li, H.; He, Y.

    2018-04-01

    Vegetation plays a leading role in ecosystems. Plant communities are the main components of ecosystems. Green plants in ecosystems are the primary producers, and they provide the living organic matter for the survival of other organisms. The dynamics of most landscapes are driven by both natural processes and human activities. In this study, the growing season GIMMS NDVI3g and climatic data were used to analyse the vegetation trends and drivers in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 1982 to 2013. Result shows that, the vegetation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region shows overall restoration and partial degradation trend. The significant restoration region accounts for 61.5 % of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, while the significant degradation region accounts for 2.1 %. The dominant climatic factor for time series NDVI were analyzed using the multi-linear regression model. Vegetation growth in 17.9 % of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is dominated by temperature, 35.5 % is dominated by precipitation, and 11.68 % is dominated by solar radiance. Human activities play important role for vegetation restoration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, where the large scale forest restoration programs are the main human activities, such as the three-north shelterbelt construction project, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei sandstorm source control project and grain for green projects.

  17. THE VEGETATION TRENDS AND DRIVERS IN BEIJING-TIANJING-HEIBEI REGION FROM 1982 TO 2013 BASED ON TIME SERIES GIMMS NDVI3g

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Liu

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Vegetation plays a leading role in ecosystems. Plant communities are the main components of ecosystems. Green plants in ecosystems are the primary producers, and they provide the living organic matter for the survival of other organisms. The dynamics of most landscapes are driven by both natural processes and human activities. In this study, the growing season GIMMS NDVI3g and climatic data were used to analyse the vegetation trends and drivers in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 1982 to 2013. Result shows that, the vegetation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region shows overall restoration and partial degradation trend. The significant restoration region accounts for 61.5 % of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, while the significant degradation region accounts for 2.1 %. The dominant climatic factor for time series NDVI were analyzed using the multi-linear regression model. Vegetation growth in 17.9 % of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is dominated by temperature, 35.5 % is dominated by precipitation, and 11.68 % is dominated by solar radiance. Human activities play important role for vegetation restoration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, where the large scale forest restoration programs are the main human activities, such as the three-north shelterbelt construction project, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei sandstorm source control project and grain for green projects.

  18. Undergraduate Regional Migration in the UK: Perspectives on Local Markets and Trends for Gender and International Student Groups

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClelland, Robert J.; Gandy, Robert J.

    2012-01-01

    This article presents an analysis of degree course acceptances for UK undergraduate students in 2002 and 2008. It examines student mobility between the UK regions, and the trends in their movement within local markets. Data shows a growing trend for students to study within local regions, especially women. Increases in acceptances of over 10% are…

  19. ESCO market and industry trends: Updated results from the NAESCO database project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Osborn, Julie G.; Goldman, Charles A.; Hopper, Nicole C.

    2001-10-15

    Today's U.S. energy efficiency services industry is one of the most successful examples of private sector energy efficiency services in the world, yet little empirical information is available on the actual market activity of this industry. LBNL, together with the National Association of Energy Services Companies (NAESCO), has compiled the most comprehensive dataset of the energy efficiency services industry: nearly 1,500 case studies of energy efficiency projects. Our analysis of these projects helps shed light on some of the conventional wisdom regarding industry performance and evolution. We report key statistics about typical projects and industry trends that will aid state, federal, and international policymakers, and other investors interested in the development of a private sector energy efficiency services industry.

  20. Regional climate change trends and uncertainty analysis using extreme indices: A case study of Hamilton, Canada

    OpenAIRE

    Razavi, Tara; Switzman, Harris; Arain, Altaf; Coulibaly, Paulin

    2016-01-01

    This study aims to provide a deeper understanding of the level of uncertainty associated with the development of extreme weather frequency and intensity indices at the local scale. Several different global climate models, downscaling methods, and emission scenarios were used to develop extreme temperature and precipitation indices at the local scale in the Hamilton region, Ontario, Canada. Uncertainty associated with historical and future trends in extreme indices and future climate projectio...

  1. Dynamic spatiotemporal trends of dengue transmission in the Asia-Pacific region, 1955-2004.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahera Banu

    Full Text Available Dengue fever (DF is one of the most important emerging arboviral human diseases. Globally, DF incidence has increased by 30-fold over the last fifty years, and the geographic range of the virus and its vectors has expanded. The disease is now endemic in more than 120 countries in tropical and subtropical parts of the world. This study examines the spatiotemporal trends of DF transmission in the Asia-Pacific region over a 50-year period, and identified the disease's cluster areas.The World Health Organization's DengueNet provided the annual number of DF cases in 16 countries in the Asia-Pacific region for the period 1955 to 2004. This fifty-year dataset was divided into five ten-year periods as the basis for the investigation of DF transmission trends. Space-time cluster analyses were conducted using scan statistics to detect the disease clusters. This study shows an increasing trend in the spatiotemporal distribution of DF in the Asia-Pacific region over the study period. Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Singapore and Malaysia are identified as the most likely clusters (relative risk = 13.02 of DF transmission in this region in the period studied (1995 to 2004. The study also indicates that, for the most part, DF transmission has expanded southwards in the region.This information will lead to the improvement of DF prevention and control strategies in the Asia-Pacific region by prioritizing control efforts and directing them where they are most needed.

  2. [Regional differences in the development of hospitalizations : An effect of different demographic trends?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowossadeck, Enno; Prütz, Franziska

    2018-03-01

    Population aging and population decline in many regions of the Federal Republic of Germany are key elements of demographic change. In the regions concerned there is a rising number of older people and, simultaneously, a declining population. So far, the consequences of regional shrinkage and growth for inpatient care don't seem to have been analysed very well. This paper analyses the influence of population aging and declining/increasing population (demographic factors) as well as other, non-demographic factors on the number of hospitalizations in Germany and the Federal States since 2000.One result of the analysis is that there are major differences between the Federal States. The analysis shows, for example, an increase of hospitalizations in Berlin while in Saxony-Anhalt the number of hospitalizations declines. The increase in Berlin was the result of population aging and, to a lower extent, an increase in population. In Saxony-Anhalt the declining population resulted in a decreasing number of hospitalizations. Population aging and non-demographic factors were not able to compensate this trend.Overall, the effect of demographic factors on the number of hospitalizations remains constant over time. Short-term changes of hospitalizations are due to non-demographic factors, such as epidemiological trends, (for example trends of incidence or prevalence), or structural changes of health care service (for example patients shifting between different sectors of health care or the introduction of new reimbursement systems).

  3. [Homicides in the Americas region: magnitude, distribution and trends, 1999-2009].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gawryszewski, Vilma Pinheiro; Sanhueza, Antonio; Martinez-Piedra, Ramon; Escamilla, José Antonio; de Souza, Maria de Fátima Marinho

    2012-12-01

    The scope of this study was to describe the magnitude and distribution of deaths by homicide in the Americas and to analyze the prevailing trends. Deaths by homicide (X85 to Y09 and Y35) were analyzed in 32 countries of the Americas Region from 1999 to 2009, recorded in the Mortality Information System/Pan American Health Organization. A negative binomial model was used to study the trends. There were around 121,297 homicides (89% men and 11% women) in the Americas, annually, predominantly in the 15 to 24 and 25 to 39 year age brackets. In 2009 the homicide age-adjusted mortality rate was 15.5/100,000 in the region. Countries with lower rates/100,000 were Canada (1.8), Argentina (4.4), Cuba (4.8), Chile (5.2), and the United States (5.8), whereas the highest rates/100,000 were in El Salvador (62.9), Guatemala (51.2), Colombia (42.5), Venezuela (33.2), and Puerto Rico (25.8). From 1999-2009, the homicide trend in the region was stable. They increased in nine countries: Venezuela (phomicide rates and they are on the increase.

  4. A graphical study of tuberculosis incidence and trends in the WHO's European region (1980-2006).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ríos, Martín; Monleón-Getino, Toni

    2009-01-01

    A graphical output was obtained using classical principal component analysis techniques in order to analyse tuberculosis trends in Europe over a 27-year period (1980-2006). Taxonomic methods were used to better define the interrelationship between the data in the 52 countries studied. Data were provided by the World Health Organization. Differences in the overall incidence and trends were identified during the 1980-2006 period. The highest rates of incidence were reported in Kazakhstan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Romania and Kyrgyzstan. High and moderately high rates were reported in the former Soviet Union, the former Yugoslavia, some countries from the former Eastern Bloc, Turkey and Portugal. The lowest rates were reported in the eastern Mediterranean, Scandinavia and Iceland. Risk of infection was determined by social conditions, intravenous drug use, HIV infection and immigration from countries where tuberculosis is endemic. As regards development of tuberculosis in Europe, 1992 represents the change in the decreasing trend in the incidence observed from 1980, when the incidence presented a minimum general trend and started to increase. The linear model calculated to project the rate of increase from 2006 to 2015, reveals the tuberculosis rates observed during the 1980s.

  5. Precipitation and temperature trends over central Italy (Abruzzo Region): 1951-2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scorzini, Anna Rita; Leopardi, Maurizio

    2018-02-01

    This study analyses spatial and temporal trends of precipitation and temperatures over Abruzzo Region (central Italy), using historical climatic data from a dense observation network. The results show a general, although not significant, negative trend in the regionally averaged annual precipitation (- 1.8% of the yearly mean rainfall per decade). This reduction is particularly evident in winter, especially at mountain stations (average - 3% change/decade). Despite this general decreasing trend, a partial rainfall recovery is observed after the 1980s. Furthermore, the majority of meteorological stations register a significant warming over the last 60 years, (mean annual temperature increase of + 0.15 °C/decade), which reflects a rise in both minimum and maximum temperatures, with the latter generally increasing at a faster rate. Spring and summer are the seasons which contribute most to the general temperature increase, in particular at high elevation sites, which exhibit a more pronounced warming (+ 0.24 °C/decade). However, this tendency has not been uniform over 1951-2012, but it has been characterised by a cooling phenomenon in the first 30 years (1951-1981), followed by an even stronger warming during the last three decades (1982-2012). Finally, correlations between the climatic variables and the dominant teleconnection patterns in the Mediterranean basin are analysed to identify the potential influence of large-scale atmospheric dynamics on observed trends in Abruzzo. The results highlight the dominant role of the East-Atlantic pattern on seasonal temperatures, while more spatially heterogeneous associations, depending on the complex topography of the region, are identified between winter precipitation and the North Atlantic Oscillation, East-Atlantic and East-Atlantic/Western Russian patterns.

  6. Geriatric cancer trends in the Middle-East: Findings from Lebanese cancer projections until 2025.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haddad, Fady Gh; Kattan, Joseph; Kourie, Hampig R; El Rassy, Elie; Assi, Tarek; Adib, Salim M

    2018-03-01

    By 2020, 70% of all cancers will occur in patients aged 65years and older, causing an increase in related morbidity, mortality, and cost. This study projects cancer trends in the elderly population in Lebanon, a country experiencing accelerating aging trends. Findings will guide future policy decisions regarding geriatric oncology in Lebanon and the surrounding Arab world. Cancer incidence rates were derived for men and women 65years and above, divided into three age groups: 65-69years, 70-74years, and 75years and above. Raw data were obtained from the National Cancer Registry reports 2003-2010. The eight consecutive year data were used to project the incidence until 2025 using a logarithmic model. The Average Annual Percent Change in incidence rates was calculated to determine whether it would significantly increase, decrease, or remain stable over time. Incidence rates are projected to increase significantly in all age groups of both genders until 2025. In men, the fastest rise is expected in prostate cancer, followed by bladder, lung, colorectal, and NHL. In women, the rise will be fastest in breast, followed by colorectal, lung, NHL, and ovary. Projected rates increase faster in the "younger" age group 65-69 compared to the "oldest" ≥75, both in men and women. Only kidney and liver cancers continue to rise significantly after 75. Cancer incidence is projected to increase in individuals between 65 and 74years of age. Lebanese and Middle Eastern physicians must implement adapted therapeutic strategies in the management of the increasing caseload among frail, elderly patients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Trends in the risk of mortality due to cardiovascular diseases in five Brazilian geographic regions from 1979 to 1996

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria de Fátima Marinho de Souza

    2001-12-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE - To analyze the trends in risk of death due to cardiovascular diseases in the northern, northeastern, southern, southeastern, and central western Brazilian geographic regions from 1979 to 1996. METHODS - Data on mortality due to cardiovascular, cardiac ischemic, and cerebrovascular diseases in 5 Brazilian geographic regions were obtained from the Ministry of Health. Population estimates for the time period from 1978 to 1996 in the 5 Brazilian geographic regions were calculated by interpolation with the Lagrange method, based on the census data from 1970, 1980, 1991, and the population count of 1996, for each age bracket and sex. Trends were analyzed with the multiple linear regression model. RESULTS - Cardiovascular diseases showed a declining trend in the southern, southeastern, and northern Brazilian geographic regions in all age brackets and for both sexes. In the northeastern and central western regions, an increasing trend in the risk of death due to cardiovascular diseases occurred, except for the age bracket from 30 to 39 years, which showed a slight reduction. This resulted from the trends of cardiac ischemic and cerebrovascular diseases. The analysis of the trend in the northeastern and northern regions was impaired by the great proportion of poorly defined causes of death. CONCLUSION - The risk of death due to cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and cardiac ischemic diseases decreased in the southern and southeastern regions, which are the most developed regions in the country, and increased in the least developed regions, mainly in the central western region.

  8. National Status and Trends, Benthic Surveillance Project Chemistry Data, 1984-1992, National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Status and Trends (NS&T) Benthic Surveillance Project Chemistry data file reports the trace concentrations of a suite of chemical contaminants in...

  9. National Status and Trends, Benthic Surveillance Project Sites, 1984-1992, National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set reports information regarding the nominal sampling locations for the National Status and Trends Benthic Surveillance Project sites. One record is...

  10. National Status and Trends, Benthic Surveillance Project Chemistry Data, 1984-1992, National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Status and Trends (NSandT) Benthic Surveillance Project Chemistry data file reports the trace concentrations of a suite of chemical contaminants in...

  11. Uncertainty of future projections of species distributions in mountainous regions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Tang

    Full Text Available Multiple factors introduce uncertainty into projections of species distributions under climate change. The uncertainty introduced by the choice of baseline climate information used to calibrate a species distribution model and to downscale global climate model (GCM simulations to a finer spatial resolution is a particular concern for mountainous regions, as the spatial resolution of climate observing networks is often insufficient to detect the steep climatic gradients in these areas. Using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt modeling framework together with occurrence data on 21 understory bamboo species distributed across the mountainous geographic range of the Giant Panda, we examined the differences in projected species distributions obtained from two contrasting sources of baseline climate information, one derived from spatial interpolation of coarse-scale station observations and the other derived from fine-spatial resolution satellite measurements. For each bamboo species, the MaxEnt model was calibrated separately for the two datasets and applied to 17 GCM simulations downscaled using the delta method. Greater differences in the projected spatial distributions of the bamboo species were observed for the models calibrated using the different baseline datasets than between the different downscaled GCM simulations for the same calibration. In terms of the projected future climatically-suitable area by species, quantification using a multi-factor analysis of variance suggested that the sum of the variance explained by the baseline climate dataset used for model calibration and the interaction between the baseline climate data and the GCM simulation via downscaling accounted for, on average, 40% of the total variation among the future projections. Our analyses illustrate that the combined use of gridded datasets developed from station observations and satellite measurements can help estimate the uncertainty introduced by the choice of baseline

  12. Landsat-based trend analysis of lake dynamics across northern permafrost regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nitze, Ingmar; Grosse, Guido; Jones, Benjamin M.; Arp, Christopher D.; Ulrich, Mathias; Federov, Alexander; Veremeeva, Alexandra

    2017-01-01

    Lakes are a ubiquitous landscape feature in northern permafrost regions. They have a strong impact on carbon, energy and water fluxes and can be quite responsive to climate change. The monitoring of lake change in northern high latitudes, at a sufficiently accurate spatial and temporal resolution, is crucial for understanding the underlying processes driving lake change. To date, lake change studies in permafrost regions were based on a variety of different sources, image acquisition periods and single snapshots, and localized analysis, which hinders the comparison of different regions. Here we present, a methodology based on machine-learning based classification of robust trends of multi-spectral indices of Landsat data (TM,ETM+, OLI) and object-based lake detection, to analyze and compare the individual, local and regional lake dynamics of four different study sites (Alaska North Slope, Western Alaska, Central Yakutia, Kolyma Lowland) in the northern permafrost zone from 1999 to 2014. Regional patterns of lake area change on the Alaska North Slope (-0.69%), Western Alaska (-2.82%), and Kolyma Lowland (-0.51%) largely include increases due to thermokarst lake expansion, but more dominant lake area losses due to catastrophic lake drainage events. In contrast, Central Yakutia showed a remarkable increase in lake area of 48.48%, likely resulting from warmer and wetter climate conditions over the latter half of the study period. Within all study regions, variability in lake dynamics was associated with differences in permafrost characteristics, landscape position (i.e. upland vs. lowland), and surface geology. With the global availability of Landsat data and a consistent methodology for processing the input data derived from robust trends of multi-spectral indices, we demonstrate a transferability, scalability and consistency of lake change analysis within the northern permafrost region.

  13. Climate change in Inner Mongolia from 1955 to 2005-trends at regional, biome and local scales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, N; Wilske, B; John, R; Chen, J [Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Toledo, Toledo, OH 43606 (United States); Ni, J, E-mail: nan.lu@utoledo.ed, E-mail: burkhard.wilske@utoledo.ed, E-mail: jni@ibcas.ac.c, E-mail: ranjeet.john@utoledo.ed, E-mail: jiquan.chen@utoledo.ed [Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Telegrafenberg A43, D-14473 Potsdam (Germany)

    2009-10-15

    This study investigated the climate change in Inner Mongolia based on 51 meteorological stations from 1955 to 2005. The climate data was analyzed at the regional, biome (i.e. forest, grassland and desert) and station scales, with the biome scale as our primary focus. The climate records showed trends of warmer and drier conditions in the region. The annual daily mean, maximum and minimum temperature increased whereas the diurnal temperature range (DTR) decreased. The decreasing trend of annual precipitation was not significant. However, the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) increased significantly. On the decadal scale, the warming and drying trends were more significant in the last 30 years than the preceding 20 years. The climate change varied among biomes, with more pronounced changes in the grassland and the desert biomes than in the forest biome. DTR and VPD showed the clearest inter-biome gradient from the lowest rate of change in the forest biome to the highest rate of change in the desert biome. The rates of change also showed large variations among the individual stations. Our findings correspond with the IPCC predictions that the future climate will vary significantly by location and through time, suggesting that adaptation strategies also need to be spatially viable.

  14. Climate change in Inner Mongolia from 1955 to 2005-trends at regional, biome and local scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, N; Wilske, B; John, R; Chen, J; Ni, J

    2009-01-01

    This study investigated the climate change in Inner Mongolia based on 51 meteorological stations from 1955 to 2005. The climate data was analyzed at the regional, biome (i.e. forest, grassland and desert) and station scales, with the biome scale as our primary focus. The climate records showed trends of warmer and drier conditions in the region. The annual daily mean, maximum and minimum temperature increased whereas the diurnal temperature range (DTR) decreased. The decreasing trend of annual precipitation was not significant. However, the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) increased significantly. On the decadal scale, the warming and drying trends were more significant in the last 30 years than the preceding 20 years. The climate change varied among biomes, with more pronounced changes in the grassland and the desert biomes than in the forest biome. DTR and VPD showed the clearest inter-biome gradient from the lowest rate of change in the forest biome to the highest rate of change in the desert biome. The rates of change also showed large variations among the individual stations. Our findings correspond with the IPCC predictions that the future climate will vary significantly by location and through time, suggesting that adaptation strategies also need to be spatially viable.

  15. Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Martha Marie; Orth, René; Cheruy, Frederique; Hagemann, Stefan; Lorenz, Ruth; van den Hurk, Bart; Seneviratne, Sonia Isabelle

    2017-04-01

    Regional hot extremes are projected to increase more strongly than global mean temperature, with substantially larger changes than 2°C even if global warming is limited to this level. We investigate here the role of soil moisture-temperature feedbacks for this response based on multi-model experiments for the 21st century with either interactive or fixed (late 20th century mean seasonal cycle) soil moisture. We analyze changes in the hottest days in each year in both sets of experiments, relate them to the global mean temperature increase, and investigate physical processes leading to these changes. We find that soil moisture-temperature feedbacks significantly contribute to the amplified warming of hottest days compared to that of global mean temperature. This contribution reaches more than 70% in Central Europe and Central North America and between 42%-52% in Amazonia, Northern Australia and Southern Africa. Soil moisture trends (multi-decadal soil moisture variability) are more important for this response than short-term (e.g. seasonal, interannual) soil moisture variability. These results are relevant for reducing uncertainties in regional temperature projections. Vogel, M.M. et al.,2017. Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks. Geophysical Research Letters, accepted.

  16. Booming Asia-Pacific oil trade spawns regional storage projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Land, R.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that surging oil trade in the Asia-Pacific region is spawning a number of big petroleum storage projects there. Among the biggest are those in Indonesia and Singapore. A group led by Singapore's Sembawang Group plans to build a $272 million (Singapore) oil storage terminal on Karimun Island in Riau province, Indonesia. Other participants include Kuo International, Hong Kong, and likely companies from Japan, Europe, and the U.S. According to press reports from Jakarta and Singapore, Van Ommeren Terminals of Netherlands was also reportedly involved in negotiations on the projects. A joint venture agreement was expected to be signed by the third quarter. Plans call for building a terminal with a capacity of 1.5 million cu m on the island, where Sembawang has a 100 year lease. Ultimately, Sembawang and Indonesian company Bangun Cipta want to develop the site as an industrial city with petrochemical plants, engineering and manufacturing industries, and shipyards. Semabawang Project Engineering recently completed a feasibility study of the Karimun storage project

  17. Tono regional hydrogeological study project. Annual report 2004

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iwatsuki, Teruki; Ota, Kunio; Takeuchi, Shinji; Amano, Kenji; Takeuchi, Ryuji; Saegusa, Hiromitsu; Osawa, Hideaki

    2005-09-01

    Tono Geoscience Center, Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute has been conducting a wide range of geoscientific research in order to build firm scientific and technological basis for the research and development of geological disposal. One of the geoscientific research programme is a Regional Hydrogeological Study (RHS) project in the Tono region, central Japan. This report mainly summarizes the results of research in DH-14 and DH-15 boreholes at Toki city and Mizunami city in fiscal year 2004 which were carried out to support and improve the results in fiscal year 2003. The research in the regional scale area shows the reliability of conceptual hydrogeological model and numerical simulation for the evaluation of regional hydrogeology. On the other hand, the geological and geophysical investigation, and borehole investigation during the surface-based investigations in the local scale area provide the pragmatic distribution of hydrogeological structure that may control regional groundwater hydrology. Hydrogeological simulations regarding the geological structure such as fault and hydrogeological property demonstrate the priority of investigation of geological structure for the evaluation of hydrogeology. The fault perpendicular to groundwater flow direction crucially affects on regional hydrology. Such fault is necessary to be investigated by priority. Hydrochemical investigation shows that chemical evolution process in this groundwater illustrated is mixing between groundwaters with different salinities. Principal component analysis and mass balance calculation reveal reliable chemistry of end-member waters for mixing. Regarding methodology development, the strategy and procedure of investigations are summarized based on the results of surface-based investigation. Moreover the multi interval monitoring system for water pressure and temperature has developed and started to monitor the in-situ condition of groundwater. The geology, geological structure, hydraulic

  18. Investigation of variations and trends in solar radiation in Klang Valley Region, Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohamed Elnour Yassen, Jamaluddin Mohd Jahi

    2006-01-01

    The objective of this study is to investigate variations and trends in the global solar radiation in Klang Valley region. The least square method was used for the trend analysis. Since the available time series covers 27 years, linear regression was preferred for the trend analysis. The linear trend is used mainly to test the change in solar radiation and to set limits on the rate of change. Trend line and values and significance levels of the slopes have been found. The seasonal and the annual average values were computed from the monthly average radiation data. The seasonal and annual average solar radiation values were designated as dependent variables, and thus, were fitted linearly for season and annual means for each station. The results showed that the mean of maximum incoming global radiation in Sepember with a value of 21.1 MJ m-2 at Petaling Jaya, while the mean minimum in November and December with values of 10.7 and 10.9 MJ m-2 at Petaling Jaya. The low amounts of solar radiation received in November and December are due to greater cloudiness during the period coinciding with the northeast monsoon season. On rainy days, very little global solar radiation received in November and December are due to greater cloudiness during the period coinciding with the northeast monsoon season. On rainy days, very little global solar radiation is received. The distribution of the seasonal mean values of solar radiation exhibits a high symmetry. Inter-monsoon seasons (April-May) and (October-November) show a similar behavior, just like the northeast monsoon season. The overall average rate of change in global solar radiation during 1975-2002 and 1977-2000 is represented by the slope of the linear regression was small (-0.126 and -0.314 MJ m-2 per year for Subang Airport and Petaling Jaya respectively)

  19. Stroke trends in an aging population. The Technology Assessment Methods Project Team.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niessen, L W; Barendregt, J J; Bonneux, L; Koudstaal, P J

    1993-07-01

    Trends in stroke incidence and survival determine changes in stroke morbidity and mortality. This study examines the extent of the incidence decline and survival improvement in the Netherlands from 1979 to 1989. In addition, it projects future changes in stroke morbidity during the period 1985 to 2005, when the country's population will be aging. A state-event transition model is used, which combines Dutch population projections and existing data on stroke epidemiology. Based on the clinical course of stroke, the model describes historical national age- and sex-specific hospital admission and mortality rates for stroke. It extrapolates observed trends and projects future changes in stroke morbidity rates. There is evidence of a continuing incidence decline. The most plausible rate of change is an annual decline of -1.9% (range, -1.7% to -2.1%) for men and -2.4% (range, -2.3% to -2.8%) for women. Projecting a constant mortality decline, the model shows a 35% decrease of the stroke incidence rate for a period of 20 years. Prevalence rates for major stroke will decline among the younger age groups but increase among the oldest because of increased survival in the latter. In absolute numbers this results in an 18% decrease of acute stroke episodes and an 11% increase of major stroke cases. The increase in survival cannot fully explain the observed mortality decline and, therefore, a concomitant incidence decline has to be assumed. Aging of the population partially outweighs the effect of an incidence decline on the total burden of stroke. Increase in cardiovascular survival leads to a further increase in major stroke prevalence among the oldest age groups.

  20. Trends in flash flood events versus convective precipitation in the Mediterranean region: The case of Catalonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llasat, Maria Carmen; Marcos, Raul; Turco, Marco; Gilabert, Joan; Llasat-Botija, Montserrat

    2016-10-01

    The aim of this paper is to analyse the potential relationship between flash flood events and convective precipitation in Catalonia, as well as any related trends. The paper starts with an overview of flash floods and their trends in the Mediterranean region, along with their associated factors, followed by the definition of, identification of, and trends in convective precipitation. After this introduction the paper focuses on the north-eastern Iberian Peninsula, for which there is a long-term precipitation series (since 1928) of 1-min precipitation from the Fabra Observatory, as well as a shorter (1996-2011) but more extensive precipitation series (43 rain gauges) of 5-min precipitation. Both series have been used to characterise the degree of convective contribution to rainfall, introducing the β parameter as the ratio between convective precipitation versus total precipitation in any period. Information about flood events was obtained from the INUNGAMA database (a flood database created by the GAMA team), with the aim of finding any potential links to convective precipitation. These flood data were gathered using information on damage where flood is treated as a multifactorial risk, and where any trend or anomaly might have been caused by one or more factors affecting hazard, vulnerability or exposure. Trend analysis has shown an increase in flash flood events. The fact that no trends were detected in terms of extreme values of precipitation on a daily scale, nor on the associated ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) extreme index, could point to an increase in vulnerability, an increase in exposure, or changes in land use. However, the summer increase in convective precipitation was concentrated in less torrential events, which could partially explain this positive trend in flash flood events. The β parameter has been also used to characterise the type of flood event according to the features of the precipitation. The highest values

  1. Review of US ESCO industry market trends: an empirical analysis of project data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goldman, C.A.; Hopper, N.C.; Osborn, J.G. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA (United States). Energy Analysis

    2005-02-01

    This comprehensive empirical analysis of US energy service company (ESCO) industry trends and performance employs two parallel analytical approaches: a survey of firms to estimate total industry size, and a database of {approx}1500 ESCO projects, from which we report target markets and typical project characteristics, energy savings and customer economics. We estimate that industry investment for energy-efficiency related services reached US$2 billion in 2000 following a decade of strong growth. ESCO activity is concentrated in states with high economic activity and strong policy support. Typical projects save 150-200 MJ/m{sup 2}/year and are cost-effective with median benefit/cost ratios of 1.6 and 2.1 for institutional and private sector projects. The median simple payback time (SPT) is 7 years among institutional customers; 3 years is typical in the private sector. Reliance on DSM incentives has decreased since 1995. Preliminary evidence suggests that state enabling policies have boosted the industry in medium-sized states. ECSOs have proven resilient in the face of restructuring and will probably shift toward selling 'energy solutions', with energy efficiency part of a package. We conclude that appropriate policy support - both financial and non-financial - can 'jump-start' a viable private-sector energy-efficiency services industry that targets large institutional and commercial/industrial customers. (author)

  2. Review of US ESCO industry market trends: an empirical analysis of project data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldman, Charles A.; Hopper, Nicole C.; Osborn, Julie G.

    2005-01-01

    This comprehensive empirical analysis of US energy service company (ESCO) industry trends and performance employs two parallel analytical approaches: a survey of firms to estimate total industry size, and a database of ∼1500 ESCO projects, from which we report target markets and typical project characteristics, energy savings and customer economics. We estimate that industry investment for energy-efficiency related services reached US$2 billion in 2000 following a decade of strong growth. ESCO activity is concentrated in states with high economic activity and strong policy support. Typical projects save 150-200 MJ/m 2 /year and are cost-effective with median benefit/cost ratios of 1.6 and 2.1 for institutional and private sector projects. The median simple payback time (SPT) is 7 years among institutional customers; 3 years is typical in the private sector. Reliance on DSM incentives has decreased since 1995. Preliminary evidence suggests that state enabling policies have boosted the industry in medium-sized states. ESCOs have proven resilient in the face of restructuring and will probably shift toward selling 'energy solutions', with energy efficiency part of a package. We conclude that appropriate policy support - both financial and non-financial - can 'jump-start' a viable private-sector energy-efficiency services industry that targets large institutional and commercial/industrial customers

  3. Review of US ESCO industry market trends: an empirical analysis of project data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldman, C.A.; Hopper, N.C.; Osborn, J.G.

    2005-01-01

    This comprehensive empirical analysis of US energy service company (ESCO) industry trends and performance employs two parallel analytical approaches: a survey of firms to estimate total industry size, and a database of ∼1500 ESCO projects, from which we report target markets and typical project characteristics, energy savings and customer economics. We estimate that industry investment for energy-efficiency related services reached US$2 billion in 2000 following a decade of strong growth. ESCO activity is concentrated in states with high economic activity and strong policy support. Typical projects save 150-200 MJ/m 2 /year and are cost-effective with median benefit/cost ratios of 1.6 and 2.1 for institutional and private sector projects. The median simple payback time (SPT) is 7 years among institutional customers; 3 years is typical in the private sector. Reliance on DSM incentives has decreased since 1995. Preliminary evidence suggests that state enabling policies have boosted the industry in medium-sized states. ECSOs have proven resilient in the face of restructuring and will probably shift toward selling 'energy solutions', with energy efficiency part of a package. We conclude that appropriate policy support - both financial and non-financial - can 'jump-start' a viable private-sector energy-efficiency services industry that targets large institutional and commercial/industrial customers. (author)

  4. Review of U.S. ESCO industry market trends: An empirical analysis of project data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goldman, Charles A.; Hopper, Nicole C.; Osborn, Julie G.; Singer, Terry E.

    2003-03-01

    This article summarizes a comprehensive empirical analysis of U.S. Energy Service Company (ESCO) industry trends and performance. We employ two parallel analytical approaches: a comprehensive survey of firms to estimate total industry size and a database of {approx}1500 ESCO projects, from which we report target markets and typical project characteristics, energy savings and customer economics. We estimate that industry investment for energy-efficiency related services reached US $2 billion in 2000 following a decade of strong growth. ESCO activity is concentrated in states with high economic activity and strong policy support. Typical projects save 150-200 MJ/m2/year and are cost-effective with median benefit/cost ratios of 1.6 and 2.1 for institutional and private sector projects. The median simple payback time is 7 years among institutional customers; 3 years is typical in the private sector. Reliance on DSM incentives has decreased since 1995. Preliminary evidence suggests that state enabling policies have boosted the industry in medium-sized states. ESCOs have proven resilient in the face of restructuring and will probably shift toward selling ''energy solutions,'' with energy efficiency part of a package. We conclude that a private sector energy-efficiency services industry that targets large commercial and industrial customers is viable and self-sustaining with appropriate policy support both financial and non-financial.

  5. Regional Distribution Shifts Help Explain Local Changes in Wintering Raptor Abundance: Implications for Interpreting Population Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paprocki, Neil; Heath, Julie A.; Novak, Stephen J.

    2014-01-01

    Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a large, regional scale and have little to do with the habitats within the management unit. We examined the latitudinal center of abundance for the winter distributions of six western North America raptor species using Christmas Bird Counts from 1975–2011. Also, we considered whether population indices within western North America Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) were explained by distribution shifts. All six raptors had significant poleward shifts in their wintering distributions over time. Rough-legged Hawks (Buteo lagopus) and Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) showed the fastest rate of change, with 8.41 km yr−1 and 7.74 km yr−1 shifts, respectively. Raptors may be particularly responsive to warming winters because of variable migration tendencies, intraspecific competition for nesting sites that drives males to winter farther north, or both. Overall, 40% of BCR population trend models were improved by incorporating information about wintering distributions; however, support for the effect of distribution on BCR indices varied by species with Rough-legged Hawks showing the most evidence. These results emphasize the importance of understanding how regional distribution shifts influence local-scale population indices. If global climate change is altering distribution patterns, then trends within some management units may not reflect changes in local habitat conditions. The methods used to monitor and manage bird populations within local BCRs will fundamentally change as

  6. Decadal trends in deep ocean salinity and regional effects on steric sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purkey, S. G.; Llovel, W.

    2017-12-01

    We present deep (below 2000 m) and abyssal (below 4000 m) global ocean salinity trends from the 1990s through the 2010s and assess the role of deep salinity in local and global sea level budgets. Deep salinity trends are assessed using all deep basins with available full-depth, high-quality hydrographic section data that have been occupied two or more times since the 1980s through either the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) Hydrographic Program or the Global Ship-Based Hydrographic Investigations Program (GO-SHIP). All salinity data is calibrated to standard seawater and any intercruise offsets applied. While the global mean deep halosteric contribution to sea level rise is close to zero (-0.017 +/- 0.023 mm/yr below 4000 m), there is a large regional variability with the southern deep basins becoming fresher and northern deep basins becoming more saline. This meridional gradient in the deep salinity trend reflects different mechanisms driving the deep salinity variability. The deep Southern Ocean is freshening owing to a recent increased flux of freshwater to the deep ocean. Outside of the Southern Ocean, the deep salinity and temperature changes are tied to isopycnal heave associated with a falling of deep isopycnals in recent decades. Therefore, regions of the ocean with a deep salinity minimum are experiencing both a halosteric contraction with a thermosteric expansion. While the thermosteric expansion is larger in most cases, in some regions the halosteric compensates for as much as 50% of the deep thermal expansion, making a significant contribution to local sea level rise budgets.

  7. Regional distribution shifts help explain local changes in wintering raptor abundance: implications for interpreting population trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neil Paprocki

    Full Text Available Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a large, regional scale and have little to do with the habitats within the management unit. We examined the latitudinal center of abundance for the winter distributions of six western North America raptor species using Christmas Bird Counts from 1975-2011. Also, we considered whether population indices within western North America Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs were explained by distribution shifts. All six raptors had significant poleward shifts in their wintering distributions over time. Rough-legged Hawks (Buteo lagopus and Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos showed the fastest rate of change, with 8.41 km yr(-1 and 7.74 km yr(-1 shifts, respectively. Raptors may be particularly responsive to warming winters because of variable migration tendencies, intraspecific competition for nesting sites that drives males to winter farther north, or both. Overall, 40% of BCR population trend models were improved by incorporating information about wintering distributions; however, support for the effect of distribution on BCR indices varied by species with Rough-legged Hawks showing the most evidence. These results emphasize the importance of understanding how regional distribution shifts influence local-scale population indices. If global climate change is altering distribution patterns, then trends within some management units may not reflect changes in local habitat conditions. The methods used to monitor and manage bird populations within local BCRs will fundamentally

  8. Hydro-climatic trends and water resource management implications based on multi-scale data for the Lake Victoria region, Kenya

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koutsouris, A J; Destouni, G; Jarsjoe, J; Lyon, S W

    2010-01-01

    Unreliable rainfall may be a main cause of poverty in rural areas, such as the Kisumu district by Lake Victoria in Kenya. Climate change may further increase the negative effects of rainfall uncertainty. These effects could be mitigated to some extent through improved and adaptive water resource management and planning, which relies on our interpretations and projections of the coupled hydro-climatic system behaviour and its development trends. In order to identify and quantify the main differences and consistencies among such hydro-climatic assessments, this study investigates trends and exemplifies their use for important water management decisions for the Lake Victoria drainage basin (LVDB), based on local scale data for the Orongo village in the Kisumu district, and regional scale data for the whole LVDB. Results show low correlation between locally and regionally observed hydro-climatic trends, and large differences, which in turn affects assessments of important water resource management parameters. However, both data scales converge in indicating that observed local and regional hydrological discharge trends are primarily driven by local and regional water use and land use changes.

  9. Etan hydropower project spurs industrial, agricultural growth of region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1982-01-01

    Located in Hongdu commune, Xincheng County, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, on the middle reaches of the Hongshui River, the Etan hydroelectric power station was begun in 1977 and began to generate power in April 1981. The Etan hydroelectric power station is a run-off type, low waterhead medium-sized power station. It has an installed capacity of 60,000 kW for an average yearly power output of 328 million kWh. The main structure of the power station includes a water diversion canal, a water intake gate, a main machinery building and a switching station. The main machinery building is located on the downstream side of the dam on an overhanging cliff. With a construction area of only 5000 m/sup 2/, work was very difficult due to the restricted work area and transportation problems. By strengthening construction management and promoting technical innovation some 670,000 yuan were saved for the state and construction time was accelerated. This assured the completion of the construction and installation of the main parts of the project according to timetables and design requirements. The successful construction of the Etan hydroelectric power station marks another step in amassing experience in the harnessing of the Hongshui River. The project will have a major impact on the growth of industry and agriculture in Guangxi and on the buildup of the minority regions.

  10. Regional trend analysis of surface ozone observations from monitoring networks in eastern North America, Europe and East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, K. L.; Petropavlovskikh, I. V.; Cooper, O. R.; Schultz, M.; Wang, T.

    2017-12-01

    Surface ozone is a greenhouse gas and pollutant detrimental to human health and crop and ecosystem productivity. The Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) is designed to provide the research community with an up-to-date observation-based overview of tropospheric ozone's global distribution and trends. The TOAR Surface Ozone Database contains ozone metrics at thousands of monitoring sites around the world, densely clustered across mid-latitude North America, western Europe and East Asia. Calculating regional ozone trends across these locations is challenging due to the uneven spacing of the monitoring sites across urban and rural areas. To meet this challenge we conducted a spatial and temporal trend analysis of several TOAR ozone metrics across these three regions for summertime (April-September) 2000-2014, using the generalized additive mixed model (GAMM). Our analysis indicates that East Asia has the greatest human and plant exposure to ozone pollution among investigating regions, with increasing ozone levels through 2014. The results also show that ozone mixing ratios continue to decline significantly over eastern North America and Europe, however, there is less evidence for decreases of daytime average ozone at urban sites. The present-day spatial coverage of ozone monitors in East Asia (South Korea and Japan) and eastern North America is adequate for estimating regional trends by simply taking the average of the individual trends at each site. However the European network is more sparsely populated across its northern and eastern regions and therefore a simple average of the individual trends at each site does not yield an accurate regional trend. This analysis demonstrates that the GAMM technique can be used to assess the regional representativeness of existing monitoring networks, indicating those networks for which a regional trend can be obtained by simply averaging the trends of all individual sites and those networks that require a more

  11. Linear trend and abrupt changes of climate indices in the arid region of northwestern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Huaijun; Pan, Yingping; Chen, Yaning; Ye, Zhengwei

    2017-11-01

    In recent years, climate extreme events have caused increasing direct economic and social losses in the arid region of northwestern China. Based on daily temperature and precipitation data from 1960 to 2010, this paper discussed the linear trend and abrupt changes of climate indices. The general evolution was obtained by the empirical orthogonal function (EOF), the Mann-Kendall test, and the distribution-free cumulative sum chart (CUSUM) test. The results are as follows: (1) climate showed a warming trend at annual and seasonal scale, with all temperature indices exhibiting statistically significant changes. The warm indices have increased, with 1.37%days/decade of warm days (TX90p), 0.17 °C/decade of warmest days (TXx) and 1.97 days/decade of warm spell duration indicator (WSDI), respectively. The cold indices have decreased, with - 1.89%days/decade, 0.65 °C/decade and - 0.66 days/decade for cold nights (TN10p), coldest nights (TNn) and cold spell duration indicator (CSDI), respectively. The precipitation indices have also increased significantly, coupled with the changes of magnitude (max 1-day precipitation amount (RX1day)), frequency (rain day (R0.1)), and duration (consecutive dry days (CDD)). (2) Abrupt changes of the annual regional precipitation indices and the minimum temperature indices were observed around 1986, and that of the maximum temperature indices were observed in 1996. (3) The EOF1 indicated the overall coherent distribution for the whole study area, and its principal component (PC1) was also observed, showing a significant linear trend with an abrupt change, which were in accordance with the regional observation results. EOF2 and EOF3 show contrasts between the southern and northern study areas, and between the eastern and western study areas, respectively, whereas no significant tendency was observed for their PCs. Hence, the climate indices have changed significantly, with linear trends and abrupt changes noted for all climate indices

  12. Global and regional trends in particulate air pollution and attributable health burden over the past 50 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butt, E. W.; Turnock, S. T.; Rigby, R.; Reddington, C. L.; Yoshioka, M.; Johnson, J. S.; Regayre, L. A.; Pringle, K. J.; Mann, G. W.; Spracklen, D. V.

    2017-10-01

    Long-term exposure to ambient particulate matter (PM2.5, mass of particles with an aerodynamic dry diameter of air quality has changed rapidly. Here we used the HadGEM3-UKCA coupled chemistry-climate model, integrated exposure-response relationships, demographic and background disease data to provide the first estimate of the changes in global and regional ambient PM2.5 concentrations and attributable health burdens over the period 1960 to 2009. Over this period, global mean population-weighted PM2.5 concentrations increased by 38%, dominated by increases in China and India. Global attributable deaths increased by 89% to 124% over the period 1960 to 2009, dominated by large increases in China and India. Population growth and ageing contributed mostly to the increases in attributable deaths in China and India, highlighting the importance of demographic trends. In contrast, decreasing PM2.5 concentrations and background disease dominated the reduction in attributable health burden in Europe and the United States. Our results shed light on how future projected trends in demographics and uncertainty in the exposure-response relationship may provide challenges for future air quality policy in Asia.

  13. Investigating the influence of anthropogenic forcing on observed mean and extreme sea level pressure trends over the Mediterranean Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barkhordarian, Armineh

    2012-01-01

    We investigate whether the observed mean sea level pressure (SLP) trends over the Mediterranean region in the period from 1975 to 2004 are significantly consistent with what 17 models projected as response of SLP to anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols, GS). Obtained results indicate that the observed trends in mean SLP cannot be explained by natural (internal) variability. Externally forced changes are detectable in all seasons, except spring. The large-scale component (spatial mean) of the GS signal is detectable in all the 17 models in winter and in 12 of the 17 models in summer. However, the small-scale component (spatial anomalies about the spatial mean) of GS signal is only detectable in winter within 11 of the 17 models. We also show that GS signal has a detectable influence on observed decreasing (increasing) tendency in the frequencies of extremely low (high) SLP days in winter and that these changes cannot be explained by internal climate variability. While the detection of GS forcing is robust in winter and summer, there are striking inconsistencies in autumn, where analysis points to the presence of an external forcing, which is not GS forcing.

  14. A dipole-like SST trend in the Somalia region during the monsoon season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, F.; Gómez-Gesteira, M.; deCastro, M.; Días, J. M.

    2015-02-01

    SST trends measured in the Somalia region during the southwest monsoon season over the period 1982-2013 have shown the existence of a warming-cooling dipole. The positive spot, with a warming trend on the order of 0.37°C dec-1, is centered around 5.1°N-50.3°E and the negative one, with a trend on the order of -0.43°C dec-1, around 11.1°N-52.2°E. The migration of the Great Whirl (GW) over the last three decades at a speed of -0.3°C dec-1 in longitude and -0.6°C dec-1 in latitude was considered as the possible origin of the SST dipole. The displacement of the GW produces changes in the geostrophic currents which, in turn, generate changes in the amount of advected water from and to coast.

  15. Gas Regional Initiative. North West Regional Energy Market. Transmission Transparency Project. First Implementation Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-07-01

    The purpose of this report is to comment on the implementation of the TSO Transmission Transparency Project. In December 2007 sixteen TSOs presented a project plan which committed them to publishing information on capacity availability and gas flows at crossborder interconnection points in the North-West gas region. The data types to be published were agreed between TSOs and network users. It was agreed that TSOs would release new information on capacity and actual gas flows at crossborder interconnection points. The TSOs have committed to publishing the agreed information by three project milestones May, September or December 2008. At the end of May 2008 the TSOs submitted initial data to Ofgem (Office of the Gas and Electricity Markets) on implementation. This report presents the data submitted by the TSOs, provides comment on implementation progress and explains the next steps. This report does not approve or guarantee the accuracy of the data submitted by TSOs

  16. Consistency of climate change projections from multiple global and regional model intercomparison projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández, J.; Frías, M. D.; Cabos, W. D.; Cofiño, A. S.; Domínguez, M.; Fita, L.; Gaertner, M. A.; García-Díez, M.; Gutiérrez, J. M.; Jiménez-Guerrero, P.; Liguori, G.; Montávez, J. P.; Romera, R.; Sánchez, E.

    2018-03-01

    We present an unprecedented ensemble of 196 future climate projections arising from different global and regional model intercomparison projects (MIPs): CMIP3, CMIP5, ENSEMBLES, ESCENA, EURO- and Med-CORDEX. This multi-MIP ensemble includes all regional climate model (RCM) projections publicly available to date, along with their driving global climate models (GCMs). We illustrate consistent and conflicting messages using continental Spain and the Balearic Islands as target region. The study considers near future (2021-2050) changes and their dependence on several uncertainty sources sampled in the multi-MIP ensemble: GCM, future scenario, internal variability, RCM, and spatial resolution. This initial work focuses on mean seasonal precipitation and temperature changes. The results show that the potential GCM-RCM combinations have been explored very unevenly, with favoured GCMs and large ensembles of a few RCMs that do not respond to any ensemble design. Therefore, the grand-ensemble is weighted towards a few models. The selection of a balanced, credible sub-ensemble is challenged in this study by illustrating several conflicting responses between the RCM and its driving GCM and among different RCMs. Sub-ensembles from different initiatives are dominated by different uncertainty sources, being the driving GCM the main contributor to uncertainty in the grand-ensemble. For this analysis of the near future changes, the emission scenario does not lead to a strong uncertainty. Despite the extra computational effort, for mean seasonal changes, the increase in resolution does not lead to important changes.

  17. Decadal Trends and Variability of Tropospheric Ozone over Oil and Gas Regions over 2005 - 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Y.; Mao, H.; Sive, B. C.

    2017-12-01

    Tropospheric ozone (O3), which is produced largely by photochemical oxidation of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds, is a serious and ubiquitous air pollutant with strong negative health effects. Recent technological innovations such as horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing have accelerated oil and natural gas production in the U.S. since 2005. The additional input of O3 precursors from expanding natural gas production might prolong the effort to comply the current O3 standard (70 ppbv). The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of oil and gas extractions on variability and long term trends of O3 in the intermountain west under varying meteorological conditions. We investigated long-term O3 trends at 13 rural sites, which were within 100 km of the shale play in the U.S. intermountain west. Significant decreasing trends (-0.35 - -3.38 ppbv yr-1) were found in seasonal O3 design values at six sites in spring, summer, or fall, while no trends were found in wintertime O3 at any sites. Wintertime O3 at each site showed strong and consistent interannual variation over 2006 - 2015, and was negatively correlated with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) Index. The negative correlation was a result of multiple factors, such as in situ O3 photochemical production, stratospheric intrusion, and transport from the Arctic and California. In summer, wildfire emissions were the dominate driver to the interannual variations of high percentiles O3 at each site, while meteorological conditions (i.e., temperature and relative humidity) determined the interannual variations of low percentiles O3. Box model simulations indicated that O3 production rates were 31.51 ppbv h-1 over winters of 2012 - 2014 and 32.12 ppbv h-1 in summer 2014 around shale gas extraction regions.

  18. Utility-Scale Solar 2016: An Empirical Analysis of Project Cost, Performance, and Pricing Trends in the United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bolinger, Mark; Seel, Joachim; LaCommare, Kristina Hamachi

    2017-09-19

    The utility-scale solar sector has led the overall U.S. solar market in terms of installed capacity since 2012. In 2016, the utility-scale sector installed more than 2.5 times as much new capacity as did the residential and commercial sectors combined, and is expected to maintain its dominant position for at least another five years. This report—the fifth edition in an ongoing annual series—provides data-driven analysis of the utility-scale solar project fleet in the United States. We analyze not just installed project prices, but also operating costs, capacity factors, and power purchase agreement ("PPA") prices from a large sample of utility-scale PV and CSP projects throughout the United States. Highlights from this year's edition include the following: Installation Trends: The use of solar tracking devices dominated 2016 installations, at nearly 80% of all new capacity. In a reflection of the ongoing geographic expansion of the market beyond California and the Southwest, the median long-term average insolation level at newly built project sites declined again in 2016. While new fixed-tilt projects are now seen predominantly in less-sunny regions, tracking projects are increasingly pushing into these same regions. The median inverter loading ratio has stabilized in 2016 at 1.3 for both tracking and fixed-tilt projects. Installed Prices: Median installed PV project prices within a sizable sample have fallen by two-thirds since the 2007-2009 period, to $2.2/WAC (or $1.7/WDC) for projects completed in 2016. The lowest 20th percentile of projects within our 2016 sample were priced at or below $2.0/WAC, with the lowest-priced projects around $1.5/WAC. Overall price dispersion across the entire sample and across geographic regions decreased significantly in 2016. Operation and Maintenance (“O&M”) Costs: What limited empirical O&M cost data are publicly available suggest that PV O&M costs were in the neighborhood of $18/kWAC-year, or $8/MWh, in 2016. These

  19. Trends in incidence of lung cancer in Croatia from 2001 to 2013: gender and regional differences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siroglavić, Katarina Josipa; Polić Vižintin, Marina; Tripković, Ingrid; Šekerija, Mario; Kukulj, Suzana

    2017-10-31

    To provide an overview of the lung cancer incidence trends in the City of Zagreb (Zagreb), Split-Dalmatia County (SDC), and Croatia in the period from 2001 to 2013. Incidence data were obtained from the Croatian National Cancer Registry. For calculating incidence rates per 100 000 population, we used population estimates for the period 2001-2013 from the Croatian Bureau of Statistics. Age-standardized rates of lung cancer incidence were calculated by the direct standardization method using the European Standard Population. To describe incidence trends, we used joinpoint regression analysis. Joinpoint analysis showed a statistically significant decrease in lung cancer incidence in men in all regions, with an annual percentage change (APC) of -2.2% for Croatia, 1.9% for Zagreb, and -2.0% for SDC. In women, joinpoint analysis showed a statistically significant increase in the incidence for Croatia, with APC of 1.4%, a statistically significant increase of 1.0% for Zagreb, and no significant change in trend for SDC. In both genders, joinpoint analysis showed a significant decrease in age-standardized incidence rates of lung cancer, with APC of -1.3% for Croatia, -1.1% for Zagreb, and -1.6% for SDC. There was an increase in female lung cancer incidence rate and a decrease in male lung cancer incidence rate in Croatia in 2001-20013 period, with similar patterns observed in all the investigated regions. These results highlight the importance of smoking prevention and cessation policies, especially among women and young people.

  20. Role of resolution in regional climate change projections over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Ying; Wang, Guiling; Gao, Xuejie

    2017-11-01

    This paper investigates the sensitivity of projected future climate changes over China to the horizontal resolution of a regional climate model RegCM4.4 (RegCM), using RCP8.5 as an example. Model validation shows that RegCM performs better in reproducing the spatial distribution and magnitude of present-day temperature, precipitation and climate extremes than the driving global climate model HadGEM2-ES (HadGEM, at 1.875° × 1.25° degree resolution), but little difference is found between the simulations at 50 and 25 km resolutions. Comparison with observational data at different resolutions confirmed the added value of the RCM and finer model resolutions in better capturing the probability distribution of precipitation. However, HadGEM and RegCM at both resolutions project a similar pattern of significant future warming during both winter and summer, and a similar pattern of winter precipitation changes including dominant increase in most areas of northern China and little change or decrease in the southern part. Projected precipitation changes in summer diverge among the three models, especially over eastern China, with a general increase in HadGEM, little change in RegCM at 50 km, and a mix of increase and decrease in RegCM at 25 km resolution. Changes of temperature-related extremes (annual total number of daily maximum temperature > 25 °C, the maximum value of daily maximum temperature, the minimum value of daily minimum temperature in the three simulations especially in the two RegCM simulations are very similar to each other; so are the precipitation-related extremes (maximum consecutive dry days, maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation and extremely wet days' total amount). Overall, results from this study indicate a very low sensitivity of projected changes in this region to model resolution. While fine resolution is critical for capturing the spatial variability of the control climate, it may not be as important for capturing the climate response to

  1. Tropical Warm Semi-Arid Regions Expanding Over Temperate Latitudes In The Projected 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajaud, A.; de Noblet, N. I.

    2015-12-01

    Two billion people today live in drylands, where extreme climatic conditions prevail, and natural resources are limited. Drylands are expected to expand under several scenarios of climatic change. However, relevant adaptation strategies need to account for the aridity level: it conditions the equilibrium tree-cover density, ranging from deserts (hyper-arid) to dense savannas (sub-humid). Here we focus on the evolution of climatically defined warm semi-arid areas, where low-tree density covers can be maintained. We study the global repartition of these regions in the future and the bioclimatic shifts involved. We adopted a bioclimatological approach based on the Köppen climate classification. The warm semi-arid class is characterized by mean annual temperatures over 18°C and a rainfall-limitation criterion. A multi-model ensemble of CMIP5 projections for three representative concentration pathways was selected to analyze future conditions. The classification was first applied to the start, middle and end of the 20th and 21st centuries, in order to localize past and future warm semi-arid regions. Then, time-series for the classification were built to characterize trends and variability in the evolution of those regions. According to the CRU datasets, global expansion of the warm semi-arid area has already started (~+13%), following the global warming trend since the 1900s. This will continue according to all projections, most significantly so outside the tropical belt. Under the "business as usual" scenario, the global warm semi-arid area will increase by 30% and expand 12° poleward in the Northern Hemisphere, according to the multi-model mean. Drying drives the conversion from equatorial sub-humid conditions. Beyond 30° of latitude, cold semi-arid conditions become warm semi-arid through warming, and temperate conditions through combined warming and drying processes. Those various transitions may have drastic but also very distinct ecological and sociological

  2. Wood chip delivery and research project at Mikkeli region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saksa, T.; Auvinen, P.

    1995-01-01

    In 1994, a large-scale energywood production chain was started as a co-operation project by the Mikkeli city forest office and local forestry societies. Over 60 000 m 3 (about 46 000 MWh of energy) of forest processed chips were delivered to Pursiala heat and power plant in Mikkeli. About 60 % of these chips was whole tree chips from improvement cuttings of young forest stands and the rest was logging waste chips from regeneration cutting areas. The average total delivery costs of forest processed chips after reduction of energywood and other subsidies were approximately 51 FIM/m 3 (68 FIM/MWh) for the whole tree chips and 40 FIM/m 3 (53 FIM/MWh) for logging waste chips. The delivery costs of wood chips could compete with those of fuel peat only in the most favourable cases. The resources of forest processed chips were studied on the basis of forestry plans. According to the study, there is enough raw material for permanent, large-scale delivery of forest processed chips (up to 250 000 m 3 /a) in the forests located at a distance of under 40 road kilometers from the Pursiala heat and power plant. The following project stages will involve further development of the wood chip delivery chain logistics, as well as improvement of logging and chipping equipment and methods in energywood and logging waste production. Also the effects of wood energy production on the economy and environment of the whole Mikkeli region will be studied. (author)

  3. Incidence, time trends and regional variation of childhood leukaemia in Germany and Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaatsch, P.; Mergenthaler, A.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents data on the German and Europe-wide incidence, time trends and regional variations of childhood leukaemia. Data were provided by the German Childhood Cancer Registry (GCCR), a population-based cancer registry recording all cases of malignant diseases in children under 15 y of age residing in Germany and by the Automated Childhood Cancer Information System (ACCIS) co-ordinated at International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, that combines and evaluates data from several European population-based cancer registries. The incidence of leukaemia (44.0 per million) has increased in Europe as well as in Germany in the last decades (0.6% annually on average). Germany shows no systematic aggregation of regions with low or high cancer incidence in terms of regional clustering. Incidence rates differ between European regions with the highest rates in Northern Europe (48.0 per million) and the lowest rates in Eastern Europe (39.1). Altogether, the results from ACCIS and the GCCR show good agreement. (authors)

  4. Do Trends in Physical Activity, Sedentary, and Dietary Behaviors Support Trends in Obesity Prevalence in 2 Border Regions in Texas?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezendam, Nicole P. M.; Springer, Andrew E.; Brug, Johannes; Oenema, Anke; Hoelscher, Deanna H.

    2011-01-01

    Objective: The aim of the study was to compare the change in energy balance-related behaviors from 2000-2002 to 2004-2005 between 2 Texas regions with distinct patterns in obesity prevalence (decrease in the El Paso region [EP] and leveling off in the Rio Grande Valley region [RGV]) and to determine the role of the behaviors in the difference in…

  5. Trends and habitat associations of waterbirds using the South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project, San Francisco Bay, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    De La Cruz, Susan E. W.; Smith, Lacy M.; Moskal, Stacy M.; Strong, Cheryl; Krause, John; Wang, Yiwei; Takekawa, John Y.

    2018-04-02

    Executive SummaryThe aim of the South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project (hereinafter “Project”) is to restore 50–90 percent of former salt evaporation ponds to tidal marsh in San Francisco Bay (SFB). However, hundreds of thousands of waterbirds use these ponds over winter and during fall and spring migration. To ensure that existing waterbird populations are supported while tidal marsh is restored in the Project area, managers plan to enhance the habitat suitability of ponds by adding islands and berms to change pond topography, manipulating water salinity and depth, and selecting appropriate ponds to maintain for birds. To help inform these actions, we used 13 years of monthly (October–April) bird abundance data from Project ponds to (1) assess trends in waterbird abundance since the inception of the Project, and (2) evaluate which pond habitat characteristics were associated with highest abundances of different avian guilds and species. For comparison, we also evaluated waterbird abundance trends in active salt production ponds using 10 years of monthly survey data.We assessed bird guild and species abundance trends through time, and created separate trend curves for Project and salt production ponds using data from every pond that was counted in a year. We divided abundance data into three seasons—fall (October–November), winter (December–February), and spring (March–April). We used the resulting curves to assess which periods had the highest bird abundance and to identify increasing or decreasing trends for each guild and species.

  6. Temporal trends and regional variations in gastrointestinal cancer mortality in Peru, 2005-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández-Vásquez, Akram; Bendezú-Quispe, Guido; Azañedo, Diego; Huarez, Bertha; Rodríguez-Lema, Belén

    2016-01-01

    To estimate and analyze the evolution of mortality rates of gastrointestinal (GI) cancer in Peru and its regions between 2005-2014. We performed a nationwide secondary analysis of Peru's Health Ministry registry of deaths during the period 2005-2014, with a focus on regional differences. Deaths registered with codes C15 to C25 (malignant neoplasms of digestive organs) from the ICD-10 were included. Calculation of age-standarized mortality rates and years of life lost (YLL) due to GI cancer per 100,000 habitants were also performed. Data of 67,527 deaths from GI cancers was analyzed, 35,055 (51.91%) were women. In 2005, the number of GI cancer deaths was 6,484, for 2014, 7,532 cases were recorded. The GI cancer age-standarized mortality rates at the country level showed a decrease of 12.70% between 2005-2014. Stomach cancer presented the highest age-standarized mortality rate despite showing a downward trend in the last years, equal for gallbladder, liver and biliary tract, and esophagus cancer. Colorectal, small intestine and anus cancer show a progressive increase. In 2014, Callao (48.8), Huancavelica (48.5), La Libertad (39.6), Lambayeque (40.5) and Huanuco (38.9) had the highest rates. The three types of GI cancers with the highest rates of YLL in 2014 were stomach cancer (118.51), followed by liver and biliary tract cancer (58.68) and colorectal (44.86). GI cancer mortality in Peru is high and a priority issue in regions like Huancavelica, Huanuco, Callao, La Libertad and Lambayeque. Stomach cancer remains the most frequent GI cancer, but with a downward trend in the study period.

  7. Long-term trends of black carbon and sulphate aerosol in the Arctic: changes in atmospheric transport and source region emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Hirdman

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available As a part of the IPY project POLARCAT (Polar Study using Aircraft, Remote Sensing, Surface Measurements and Models, of Climate, Chemistry, Aerosols and Transport and building on previous work (Hirdman et al., 2010, this paper studies the long-term trends of both atmospheric transport as well as equivalent black carbon (EBC and sulphate for the three Arctic stations Alert, Barrow and Zeppelin. We find a general downward trend in the measured EBC concentrations at all three stations, with a decrease of −2.1±0.4 ng m−3 yr−1 (for the years 1989–2008 and −1.4±0.8 ng m−3 yr−1 (2002–2009 at Alert and Zeppelin respectively. The decrease at Barrow is, however, not statistically significant. The measured sulphate concentrations show a decreasing trend at Alert and Zeppelin of −15±3 ng m−3 yr−1 (1985–2006 and −1.3±1.2 ng m−3 yr−1 (1990–2008 respectively, while there is no trend detectable at Barrow.

    To reveal the contribution of different source regions on these trends, we used a cluster analysis of the output of the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART run backward in time from the measurement stations. We have investigated to what extent variations in the atmospheric circulation, expressed as variations in the frequencies of the transport from four source regions with different emission rates, can explain the long-term trends in EBC and sulphate measured at these stations. We find that the long-term trend in the atmospheric circulation can only explain a minor fraction of the overall downward trend seen in the measurements of EBC (0.3–7.2% and sulphate (0.3–5.3% at the Arctic stations. The changes in emissions are dominant in explaining the trends. We find that the highest EBC and sulphate concentrations are associated with transport from Northern Eurasia and decreasing emissions in this region drive the

  8. Regional climate projection of the Maritime Continent using the MIT Regional Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    IM, E. S.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

    2014-12-01

    Given that warming of the climate system is unequivocal (IPCC AR5), accurate assessment of future climate is essential to understand the impact of climate change due to global warming. Modelling the climate change of the Maritime Continent is particularly challenge, showing a high degree of uncertainty. Compared to other regions, model agreement of future projections in response to anthropogenic emission forcings is much less. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal behaviors of climate projections seem to vary significantly due to a complex geographical condition and a wide range of scale interactions. For the fine-scale climate information (27 km) suitable for representing the complexity of climate change over the Maritime Continent, dynamical downscaling is performed using the MIT regional climate model (MRCM) during two thirty-year period for reference (1970-1999) and future (2070-2099) climate. Initial and boundary conditions are provided by Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations under the emission scenarios projected by MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM). Changes in mean climate as well as the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are investigated at various temporal and spatial scales. Our analysis is primarily centered on the different behavior of changes in convective and large-scale precipitation over land vs. ocean during dry vs. wet season. In addition, we attempt to find the added value to downscaled results over the Maritime Continent through the comparison between MRCM and CESM projection. Acknowledgements.This research was supported by the National Research Foundation Singapore through the Singapore MIT Alliance for Research and Technology's Center for Environmental Sensing and Modeling interdisciplinary research program.

  9. Regional hydrogen roadmap. Project development framework for the Sahara Wind Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benhamou, Khalid [Sahara Wind Inc., Rabat (Morocco); Arbaoui, Abdelaziz [Ecole National Superieure des Arts et Metiers ENSAM Meknes (Morocco); Loudiyi, Khalid [Al Akhawayn Univ. (Morocco); Ould Mustapha, Sidi Mohamed [Nouakchott Univ. (Mauritania). Faculte des Sciences et Techniques

    2010-07-01

    The trade winds that blow along the Atlantic coast from Morocco to Senegal represent one of the the largest and most productive wind potentials available on earth. Because of the erratic nature of winds however, wind electricity cannot be integrated locally on any significant scale, unless mechanisms are developed for storing these intermittent renewable energies. Developing distributed wind energy solutions feeding into smaller electricity markets are essential for solving energy access issues and enabling the development of a local, viable renewable energy industry. These may be critical to address the region's economic challenges currently under pressure from Sub-Saharan migrant populations. Windelectrolysis for the production of hydrogen can be used in grid stabilization, as power storage, fuel or chemical feedstock in specific industries. The objective of the NATO SfP 'Sahara Trade Winds to Hydrogen' project is to support the region's universities through an applied research framework in partnership with industries where electrolysis applications are relevant. By powering two university campuses in Morocco and Mauritania with small grid connected wind turbines and 30 kW electrolyzers generating hydrogen for power back-up as part of ''green campus concepts'' we demonstrated that wind-electrolysis for the production of hydrogen could absorb larger quantities of cheap generated wind electricity in order to maximize renewable energy uptakes within the regions weaker grid infrastructures. Creating synergies with local industries to tap into a widely available renewable energy source opens new possibilities for end users such as utilities or mining industries when processing raw minerals, whose exports generates key incomes in regions most exposed to desertification and climate change issue. Initiated by Sahara Wind Inc. a company from the private sector, along with the Al Akhawayn University, the Ecole Nationale Superieure

  10. Evolution of Project Management in Integration Development Trends of Today’s Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lukmanova Inessa

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Today’s development trends are affected by many external and internal factors, stepping up globalization processes, faster innovation cycles, negative effects of various bans, import and export sanctions slapped on some categories of goods, technologies, capital, etc. Tit-for-tat responses of the economic systems seek sustainable development of countries taking part in the integration processes. A radical-yet-constructive strategy that deepens integration can tackle the problem. Its focus is determined by the need to upgrade the economies of the former Soviet Union; while a mutual interest in the rollout of the synergistic integration potential channels common efforts on transcontinental megaprojects. A new type of integration projects creates comprehensive methods of project management. They feature the need for information transparency and controlled alignment of innovation, investment, construction and resource capacities of member countries. With streamlined resource flows, the Eurasian transit will help facilitate and cut costs of commodity exchange among countries, provided they take synchronized efforts in not just technical and technological, but also organizational, economic, legal and IT innovations.

  11. Trends in leisure time and occupational physical activity in the Madrid region, 1995-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meseguer, Carmen M; Galán, Iñaki; Herruzo, Rafael; Rodríguez-Artalejo, Fernando

    2011-01-01

    Information on trends in physical activity is very scarce in Mediterranean countries, which have the highest sedentariness in Europe. This study describes recent trends in leisure time physical activity (LTPA) and at work in the Madrid region. The data were taken from representative annual surveys of population aged 18-64 years, between 1995-2008, 28,084 people participated. We calculated total energy, quantified in metabolic equivalent (MET-1 h per week), spent on LTPA and on light LTPA (6 MET). The annual change in LTPA was estimated by linear regression, and occupational activity by logistic regression, adjusting for age, gender and educational level. The total amount of LTPA in MET-1 h per week declined by 19.8% (Pgenders, all age groups and educational levels, except for those with the lowest level of education. The adjusted annual change in MET-1 h per week was: -0.21 (Pphysical inactivity has increased in the general population (odds ratio for annual change=1.01; 95% confidence interval, 1-1.02); specially in women, young and middle aged, and intermediate educational level. There has been a decline in LTPA, mainly in light and moderate activities, accompanied by greater occupational physical inactivity. This could have contributed to the increase in obesity in the Community of Madrid between 1995-2008. Copyright © 2010 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  12. Trends and risk factors for syphilis infection in Piedmont Region, Italy, 2002-2008.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Federica Vigna-Taglianti

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available

    Abstract:
    Background: This work aims to analyze trends of syphilis infections in the Piedmont Region (Italy between 2002 and 2008, and to evaluate risk factors for infection. Methods: Syphilis trends were described according to socio-demographic characteristics, sexual behavior, condom use, number of partners and HIV infection. Independent risk factors for syphilis among men having sex with men (MSM, men having sex with women (MSW, and women were identified through logistic regression comparing cases with 12,773 negative patients. Results: Between 2002 and 2008, 1,046 cases of syphilis were diagnosed, with peaks in 2004 and 2007. The risk of a syphilis diagnosis was independently associated with being older than 24, having a low education level, homosexual behavior, HIV self-reported infection (for MSM and MSW, number of partners (for MSW and women and non- consistent condom use (for women. Conclusions: Recent outbreaks suggest that the attention to syphilis can’t be lowered. Screening, treatment of cases and notification of partners should be reinforced and integrated with sexual health education and counselling in high-risk environments. Surveillance data must be continuously collected.

  13. [Trend pattern of the incidence of thyroid cancer in Murcia Region (Spain) from 1984 to 2008].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chirlaque, María Dolores; Moldenhauer, Fernando; Salmerón, Diego; Navarro, Carmen

    2014-01-01

    To study the trend pattern of the incidence of thyroid cancer. We selected incident cases of thyroid cancer occurring in the Region of Murcia (Spain) in 1984-2008. The variables gathered were age, sex, date of diagnosis, and morphology. We calculated incidence rates and the annual percentage of change using Bayesian age-period-cohort models. During the study period, 1414 cases were diagnosed, representing an increase in adjusted rates from 2.9/100000 in 1984-1988 to 7.3 in 2004-2008. The incidence was 3.5 times higher in women than in men and the most frequent morphology was papillary carcinoma (67.7%). An increasing trend was found in both genders; these increments were more pronounced in papillary carcinoma. In women, the incidence increased with age, calendar year, and in those born in 1945-1963. The incidence of papillary microcarcinoma increased four-fold in women. Thyroid cancer used to be a rare cancer but has become an emerging tumor. The greatest changes were found in papillary thyroid cancer, including a gradual increase in the proportion of microcarcinoma. Copyright © 2014 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  14. Regional cooperation planning. Project planning for JAEA/SNL regional cooperation on remote monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olsen, John

    2006-01-01

    Developing cooperation between the JAEA's NPSTC and the NNCA may take advantage of bilateral activities between those parties and SNL. The merger of JNC and JAERI has affected the schedule for JAEA/SNL cooperation. Also, the evolution of the NNCA as an independent agency has slowed the projected schedule for cooperation between the JAEA and the NNCA. A potential schedule for establishment of a quadrilateral remote monitoring system may include interim activities, securing an agreement of some type, and actual establishment of VPN links. A parallel schedule might exist for informing other regional parties and gaining their interest. (author)

  15. Assessing the status and trend of bat populations across broad geographic regions with dynamic distribution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodhouse, Thomas J.; Ormsbee, Patricia C.; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Vierling, Lee A.; Szewczak, Joseph M.; Vierling, Kerri T.

    2012-01-01

    Bats face unprecedented threats from habitat loss, climate change, disease, and wind power development, and populations of many species are in decline. A better ability to quantify bat population status and trend is urgently needed in order to develop effective conservation strategies. We used a Bayesian autoregressive approach to develop dynamic distribution models for Myotis lucifugus, the little brown bat, across a large portion of northwestern USA, using a four-year detection history matrix obtained from a regional monitoring program. This widespread and abundant species has experienced precipitous local population declines in northeastern USA resulting from the novel disease white-nose syndrome, and is facing likely range-wide declines. Our models were temporally dynamic and accounted for imperfect detection. Drawing on species–energy theory, we included measures of net primary productivity (NPP) and forest cover in models, predicting that M. lucifugus occurrence probabilities would covary positively along those gradients.

  16. Trends in marine climate change research in the Nordic region since the first IPCC report

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Martin Wæver; Kokkalis, Alexandros; Bardarson, H.

    2016-01-01

    Oceans are exposed to anthropogenic climate change shifting marine systems toward potential instabilities. The physical, biological and social implications of such shifts can be assessed within individual scientific disciplines, but can only be fully understood by combining knowledge and expertise...... across disciplines. For climate change related problems these research directions have been well-established since the publication of the first IPCC report in 1990, however it is not well-documented to what extent these directions are reflected in published research. Focusing on the Nordic region, we...... evaluated the development of climate change related marine science by quantifying trends in number of publications, disciplinarity, and scientific focus of 1362 research articles published between 1990 and 2011. Our analysis showed a faster increase in publications within climate change related marine...

  17. A study of regional trends in annual and seasonal precipitation and runoff series

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tveito, O.E.; Hisdal, H.

    1994-03-10

    In this study long and homogeneous time series of runoff and precipitation are studied to identify variations in time and space. The method of empirical orthogonal functions (EOF-method) is applied. Both annual observations, smoothed (using Gauss filter) and seasonal values are analyzed. The analysis shows that the temporal variations in runoff and precipitation coincide. The deviations occurring in the seasonal values are caused by snow accumulation and snow melt. In the filtered series temporal trends are found. A comparison between the different normal periods has been carried out for precipitation. The 1900-30 and 1960-90 periods differ from the 1930-60 period. This may be caused by different weather types dominating the different periods. The different weather types are reflected in different empirical orthogonal functions. This is verified by regional studies. The coinciding patterns in runoff and precipitation are important aspects in climate studies and for extrapolation purposes. 11 refs., 20 figs., 1 tab.

  18. Yield risks in global maize markets: Historical evidence and projections in key regions of the world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nelson B. Villoria

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Simultaneous worldwide crop failures stemming from a more unstable climate may reduce the scope for international trade to compensate food shortages and stabilize food prices across the various regions of the world. Understanding the effects of changes in crop productivity on global markets requires knowledge about the extent to which crop yields may be systematically related across producing and consuming centers. This short communication contributes to this knowledge by investigating the potential changes in the strength of two key sources of supply risks in global maize markets: yield variance and cross-country yield correlation. We focus on the largest producing and consuming countries of the world. We capitalize on yield projections from the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison project. Exploratory analysis of the skill of the underlying GGCMI models in reproducing key moments of the distribution of observed yields reveals that they overstate observed variances but faithfully reproduce observed patterns of cross-country correlations. We find no evidence of an increase in the degree of cross-country dependency of maize yields. We also find a higher incidence of what would be considered extremely low maize yields by present-time standards stemming from the projected downward trend in yields levels toward mid-century. The weak dependency of maize yields across countries, an the possibility of reducing the higher incidence of extremes through policies aimed to reverse the climate-induced downward trends in yields, suggest that international trade can become a valuable tool to ameliorate the effects of more unstable crop yields. Keywords: Extremely low yields, Maize markets, Food prices, Agricultural yields, Systemic risk in agriculture, Global agriculture, AgMIP, Global gridded crop model intercomparison

  19. Mortality trends from diabetes mellitus in the seven socioeconomic regions of Mexico, 2000-2007.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez-Barriga, Juan Jesús

    2010-11-01

    To determine trends in mortality from diabetes mellitus nationwide according to federative entity, socioeconomic region, and sex and to establish the association between education level, federation entity of residence, and socioeconomic region and mortality from diabetes in Mexico during the years 2000-2007. Records of mortality associated with diabetes for 2000-2007 were obtained from the National Information System of the Secretariat of Health. This information is generated by the National Institute of Statistics, Geography and Informatics through death certificates. Codes of International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision, that correspond to the basic cause of death from diabetes mellitus were identified. Rates of mortality by federative entity and socioeconomic region were calculated, along with the strength of association (obtained by Poisson regression) between federative entity of residence, socioeconomic region, and education level and mortality from diabetes. The seven socioeconomic regions elaborated by the National Institute of Statistics, Geography and Informatics include the 32 federative entities according to indicators related to well-being such as education, occupation, health, housing, and employment. Individuals who did not complete elementary school had a higher risk of dying from diabetes (relative risk [RR] 2.104, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.089-2.119). The federative entity and socioeconomic region with the strongest association with mortality from diabetes were Mexico City (RR 2.5, CI 2.33-2.68 for 2000; RR 2.06, CI 1.95-2.18 for 2007) and region 7 (RR 2.47, CI 2.36-2.57 for 2000; RR 2.05, CI 1.98-2.13 for 2007). Mortality rates increased from 77.9 to 89.2 per 100,000 inhabitants in the period 2000-2007. Women had higher mortality than men. Individuals who did not complete elementary school had a higher risk of dying from diabetes (RR 2.104, CI 2.089-2.119). Mexico City as federative entity and socioeconomic region 7 presented the

  20. Increased trends in the use of treatment-limiting decisions in a regional neurosurgical unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, William T; McMillan, Tristan; Young, Adam M H; White, Mark A J

    2017-04-01

    Treatment-limiting decisions (TLDs) are employed to actively withhold treatment from patients whom clinicians feel would derive no benefit or suffer detrimental effects from further intervention. The use of such decisions has been heavily discussed in the media and clinicians in the past have been reluctant to institute them, even though it is in the best interests of the patients. Their use is influenced by several ethical, religious and social factors all of which have changed significantly over time. This study reports the trends in use of TLDs in a regional neurosurgical unit over 23 years. Patient archives were reviewed to identify the number of admissions and procedures performed at the Institute of Neurological Sciences, Glasgow, in the years 1988, 1997 and 2011. Death certificate records were used to identify mortality in the unit in the year 2011. Patient records were used to obtain details of diagnosis, time from admission to death, and the presence and timing of a TLD. The results show an increase in the use of TLDs, with decisions made for 89% of those who died in 2011, compared to 68% in 1997 and 51% in 1988. The number of admissions has increased substantially since 1988 as has the percentage of patients undergoing surgery (46, 67 and 72% in 1988, 1997 and 2011, respectively). There is a trending increase in the number of patients who have a TLD in our regional neurosurgical unit. This demonstrates an increased willingness of clinicians to recognise poor prognosis and to withdraw or withhold treatment in these cases. Continued appropriate use of the TLD is recommended but it is to only ever reflect the best interests of the patient.

  1. Latin American Development Trends and Brazil’s Role in the Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo Roberto De Almeida

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article considers the main directions of development of Latin American countries in XX century, defines the features of the process of economic stabilization (the case of Argentina and Brazil, the resolution of debt crisis, the development of democratization and the influence of globalization. The author reveals the main features of the integration processes in the region (Mercosur, UNASUR, the Pacific Alliance and the Venezuelan project of Alba, the consequences of the implosion of the FTAA. The author shows that most of Latin American countries followed their roles of primary products exporters, a characteristic even reinforced in the last decade by the impressive growth of China. The role of trade and economic policy of China in the region has changed and it turned into the main regional trade partner, taking the place previously held by the United States. The analyses of the successes and failures in the implementation of economic reforms in Brazil is provided. Three scenarios of regional development are proposed depending on the degree of regional inclusion in the process of globalization.

  2. Uncertainties in Future Regional Sea Level Trends: How to Deal with the Internal Climate Variability?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, M.; Karpytchev, M.; Hu, A.; Deser, C.; Lennartz-Sassinek, S.

    2017-12-01

    Today, the Climate models (CM) are the main tools for forecasting sea level rise (SLR) at global and regional scales. The CM forecasts are accompanied by inherent uncertainties. Understanding and reducing these uncertainties is becoming a matter of increasing urgency in order to provide robust estimates of SLR impact on coastal societies, which need sustainable choices of climate adaptation strategy. These CM uncertainties are linked to structural model formulation, initial conditions, emission scenario and internal variability. The internal variability is due to complex non-linear interactions within the Earth Climate System and can induce diverse quasi-periodic oscillatory modes and long-term persistences. To quantify the effects of internal variability, most studies used multi-model ensembles or sea level projections from a single model ran with perturbed initial conditions. However, large ensembles are not generally available, or too small, and computationally expensive. In this study, we use a power-law scaling of sea level fluctuations, as observed in many other geophysical signals and natural systems, which can be used to characterize the internal climate variability. From this specific statistical framework, we (1) use the pre-industrial control run of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (NCAR-CCSM) to test the robustness of the power-law scaling hypothesis; (2) employ the power-law statistics as a tool for assessing the spread of regional sea level projections due to the internal climate variability for the 21st century NCAR-CCSM; (3) compare the uncertainties in predicted sea level changes obtained from a NCAR-CCSM multi-member ensemble simulations with estimates derived for power-law processes, and (4) explore the sensitivity of spatial patterns of the internal variability and its effects on regional sea level projections.

  3. Changing trend in congenital abdominal wall defects in Eastern region of Ireland.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    McDonnell, R

    2002-09-01

    In the past six years, there have been reports from abroad of an unexplained rise in the birth prevalence rate of the congenital abdominal wall defect gastroschisis, while rates for the macroscopically similar anomaly omphalocoele have remained stable. The Dublin EUROCAT Registry of congenital anomalies monitors trends in the birth prevalence of birth defects in the eastern region of Ireland. We analysed births of children with omphalocoele and gastroschisis born in the period 1981-2000, with comparisons of a number of demographic and obstetric variables. During the 20 year period the birth prevalence rate for omphalocoele remained stable at 2.5\\/10,000 births, whereas the rate for gastroschisis increased significantly during the 1990s from 1.0\\/10,000 in 1991 to 4.9\\/10,000 in 2000. Most of the increase occurred among mothers under 25 years of age. Omphalocoele was associated with a relatively high proportion of other major congenital anomalies. This study showed that there has been an unexpected rise in the birth prevalence of gastroschisis in the region, similar to that experienced in other countries in the same time period and likely to have common aetiological features.

  4. Infant mortality due to perinatal causes in Brazil: trends, regional patterns and possible interventions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cesar Gomes Victora

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available CONTEXT: Brazilian infant and child mortality levels are not compatible with the country's economic potential. In this paper, we provide a description of levels and trends in infant mortality due to perinatal causes and malformations and assess the likely impact of changing intermediate-level determinants, many of which are amenable to direct interventions through the health or related sectors. TYPE OF STUDY: Review paper. METHODS: Two main sources of mortality data were used: indirect mortality estimates based on censuses and surveys, and rates based on registered deaths. The latter were corrected for under-registration. Combination of the two sources of data allowed the estimation of cause-specific mortality rates. Data on current coverage of preventive and curative interventions were mostly obtained from the 1996 Demographic and Health Survey. Other national household surveys and Ministry of Health Statistics were also used. A thorough review of the Brazilian literature on levels, trends and determinants of infant mortality led to the identification of a large number of papers and books. These provided the background for the analyses of risk factors and potential interventions. RESULTS: The indirect infant mortality rate estimate for 1995-97 is of 37.5 deaths per thousand live births, about six times higher than in the lowest mortality countries in the world. Perinatal causes account for 57% of all infant deaths, and congenital malformations are responsible for 11.2% of these deaths. Mortality levels are highest in the Northeast and North, and lowest in the South and Southeast; the Center-West falls in between. Since surveys of the North region do not cover rural areas, mortality for this region may be underestimated. CONCLUSIONS: A first priority for the further reduction in infant mortality in Brazil is to improve equality among regions, since the North and Northeast, and particularly rural areas, still show very high death rates. Further

  5. THE MAIN TRENDS OF INTERACTION BETWEEN THE ADMINISTRATION OF ROSPOTREBNADZOR IN THE LENINGRAD REGION AND THE GOVERNMENT OF LENINGRAD REGION IN THE FIELD OF POPULATION RADIATION PROTECTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Gorbanev

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The article gives the main interaction trends of the Administration of Rospotrebnadzor in the Leningrad Region and the Government of Leningrad Region regarding issues of regional radiation protection. It reports on comprehensive measures devoted to the limitation of the population exposure from natural irradiation sources, monitoring of territories which suffered from Chernobyl NPP accident and monitoring of the environmental impact of unauthorized dumps and solid municipal waste sites in the Leningrad Region. It presents the basic issues of medical exposure limitation in the Leningrad Region and measures for their solving.

  6. Quantitative assessment of industrial VOC emissions in China: Historical trend, spatial distribution, uncertainties, and projection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Chenghang; Shen, Jiali; Zhang, Yongxin; Huang, Weiwei; Zhu, Xinbo; Wu, Xuecheng; Chen, Linghong; Gao, Xiang; Cen, Kefa

    2017-02-01

    The temporal trends of industrial volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions was comprehensively summarized for the 2011 to 2013 period, and the projections for 2020 to 2050 for China were set. The results demonstrate that industrial VOC emissions in China increased from 15.3 Tg in 2011 to 29.4 Tg in 2013 at an annual average growth rate of 38.3%. Guangdong (3.45 Tg), Shandong (2.85 Tg), and Jiangsu (2.62 Tg) were the three largest contributors collectively accounting for 30.4% of the national total emissions in 2013. The top three average industrial VOC emissions per square kilometer were Shanghai (247.2 ton/km2), Tianjin (62.8 ton/km2), and Beijing (38.4 ton/km2), which were 12-80 times of the average level in China. The data from the inventory indicate that the use of VOC-containing products, as well as the production and use of VOCs as raw materials, as well as for storage and transportation contributed 75.4%, 10.3%, 9.1%, and 5.2% of the total emissions, respectively. ArcGIS was used to display the remarkable spatial distribution variation by allocating the emission into 1 km × 1 km grid cells with a population as surrogate indexes. Combined with future economic development and population change, as well as implementation of policy and upgrade of control technologies, three scenarios (scenarios A, B, and C) were set to project industrial VOC emissions for the years 2020, 2030, and 2050, which present the industrial VOC emissions in different scenarios and the potential of reducing emissions. Finally, the result shows that the collaborative control policies considerably influenced industrial VOC emissions.

  7. Hamburg's Family Literacy project (FLY) in the context of international trends and recent evaluation findings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabkin, Gabriele; Geffers, Stefanie; Hanemann, Ulrike; Heckt, Meike; Pietsch, Marcus

    2018-05-01

    The authors of this article begin with an introduction to the holistic concept of family literacy and learning and its implementation in various international contexts, paying special attention to the key role played by the notions of lifelong learning and intergenerational learning. The international trends and experiences they outline inspired and underpinned the concept of a prize-winning Family Literacy project called FLY, which was piloted in 2004 in Hamburg, Germany. FLY aims to build bridges between preschools, schools and families by actively involving parents and other family members in children's literacy education. Its three main pillars are: (1) parents' participation in their children's classes; (2) special sessions for parents (without their children); and (3) joint out-of-school activities for teachers, parents and children. These three pillars help families from migrant backgrounds, in particular, to develop a better understanding of German schools and to play a more active role in school life. To illustrate how the FLY concept is integrated into everyday school life, the authors showcase one participating Hamburg school before presenting their own recent study on the impact of FLY in a group of Hamburg primary schools with several years of FLY experience. The results of the evaluation clearly indicate that the project's main objectives have been achieved: (1) parents of children in FLY schools feel more involved in their children's learning and are offered more opportunities to take part in school activities; (2) the quality of teaching in these schools has improved, with instruction developing a more skills-based focus due to markedly better classroom management und a more supportive learning environment; and (3) children in FLY schools are more likely to have opportunities to accumulate experience in out-of-school contexts and to be exposed to environments that stimulate and enhance their literacy skills in a tangible way.

  8. 76 FR 6153 - Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement for the Proposed Campo Regional Landfill Project on...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-03

    ... for the Proposed Campo Regional Landfill Project on the Campo Indian Reservation, San Diego County, CA... proposed Campo Regional Landfill Project (Proposed Action) to be located on the Campo Indian Reservation... Landfill Project (Proposed Action). There is no Federal action of amended lease and amended sublease...

  9. Regional assessment of Climate change impacts in the Mediterranean: the CIRCE project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iglesias, A.

    2011-12-01

    The CIRCE project has developed for the first time an assessment of the climate change impacts in the Mediterranean area. The objectives of the project are: to predict and to quantify physical impacts of climate change in the Mediterranean area; to evaluate the consequences of climate change for the society and the economy of the populations located in the Mediterranean area; to develop an integrated approach to understand combined effects of climate change; and to identify adaptation and mitigation strategies in collaboration with regional stakeholders. The CIRCE Project, coordinated by the Instituto Nazionale di Geofisca e Vulcanologia, started on 1st April 2007 and ended in a policy conference in Rome on June 2011. CIRCE involves 64 partners from Europe, Middle East and North Africa working together to evaluate the best strategies of adaptation to the climate change in the Mediterranean basin. CIRCE wants to understand and to explain how climate will change in the Mediterranean area bringing together the natural sciences community and social community in a new integrated and comprehensive way. The project has investigated how global and Mediterranean climates interact, how the radiative properties of the atmosphere and the radiative fluxes vary, the interaction between cloudiness and aerosol, the modifications in the water cycle. Recent observed modifications in the climate variables and detected trends will be compared. The economic and social consequences of climate change are evaluated by analysing direct impacts on migration, tourism and energy markets together with indirect impacts on the economic system. CIRCE has produced results about the consequences on agriculture, forests and ecosystems, human health and air quality. The variability of extreme events in the future scenario and their impacts is also assessed. A rigorous common framework, including a set of quantitative indicators developed specifically for the Mediterranean environment was be developed

  10. Developing European conservation and mitigation tools for pollination services: approaches of the STEP (Status and Trends of European Pollinators) project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Potts, S.G.; Biesmeijer, J.C.; Bommarco, R.; Felicioli, A.; Fischer, M.; Jokinen, P.; Kleijn, D.; Klein, A.M.; Kunin, W.E.; Neumann, P.; Penev, L.D.; Petanidou, T.; Rasmont, P.; Roberts, S.P.M.; Smith, H.G.; Sorensen, P.B.; Steffan-Dewenter, I.; Vaissiere, B.E.; Vila, M.; Vujic, A.; Woyciechowski, M.; Zobel, M.; Settele, J.; Schweiger, O.

    2011-01-01

    Pollinating insects form a key component of European biodiversity, and provide a vital ecosystem service to crops and wild plants. There is growing evidence of declines in both wild and domesticated pollinators, and parallel declines in plants relying upon them. The STEP project (Status and Trends

  11. Endometrial Cancer Trends by Race and Histology in the USA: Projecting the Number of New Cases from 2015 to 2040.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaber, Charles; Meza, Rafael; Ruterbusch, Julie J; Cote, Michele L

    2016-10-17

    The aim of this study is to explore incidence and incidence-based mortality trends for endometrial cancer in the USA and project future incident cases, accounting for differences by race and histological subtype. Data on age-adjusted and age-specific incidence and mortality rates of endometrial cancer were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results 18 registries. Trends in rates were analyzed using Joinpoint regression, and average annual percent change (AAPC) in recent years (2006-2011) was computed for histological subtypes by race. Age, histological, and race-specific rates were applied to US Census Bureau population census estimates to project new cases from 2015 to 2040, accounting for observed AAPC trends, which were progressively attenuated for the future years. The annual number of cases is projected to increase substantially from 2015 to 2040 across all racial groups. Considerable variation in incidence and mortality trends was observed both between and within racial groups when considering histology. As the US population undergoes demographic changes, incidence of endometrial cancer is projected to rise. The increase will occur in all racial groups, but larger increases will be seen in aggressive histology subtypes that disproportionately affect black women.

  12. Glaucoma in Asia: regional prevalence variations and future projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Errol Wei'en; Li, Xiang; Tham, Yih-Chung; Liao, Jiemin; Wong, Tien Yin; Aung, Tin; Cheng, Ching-Yu

    2016-01-01

    To evaluate glaucoma prevalence and disease burden across Asian subregions from 2013 to 2040. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of 23 population-based studies of 1318 primary open angle glaucoma (POAG) cases in 66,800 individuals and 691 primary angle closure glaucoma (PACG) cases in 72,767 individuals in Asia. Regions in Asia were defined based on United Nations' (UN) classification of macro-geographic regions. PubMed, Medline and Web of Science databases were searched for population-based glaucoma prevalence studies using standardised criteria published to 31 December 2013. Pooled glaucoma prevalence for individuals aged 40-80 years was calculated using hierarchical Bayesian approaches. Prevalence differences by geographic subregion, subtype and habitation were examined with random effects meta-regression models. Estimates of individuals with glaucoma from 2013 to 2040 were based on the UN World Population Prospects. In 2013, pooled overall glaucoma prevalence was 3.54% (95% credible interval (CrI) 1.83 to 6.28). POAG (2.34%, 95% CrI 0.96 to 4.55) predominated over PACG (0.73%, 95% CrI 0.18 to 1.96). With age and gender adjustment, PACG prevalence was higher in East than South East Asia (OR 5.55, 95% CrI 1.52 to 14.73), and POAG prevalence was higher in urban than rural populations (OR 2.11, 95% CrI 1.57 to 2.38). From 2013 to 2040, South Central Asia will record the steepest increase in number of glaucoma individuals from 17.06 million to 32.90 million compared with other Asian subregions. In 2040, South-Central Asia is also projected to overtake East Asia for highest overall glaucoma and POAG burden, while PACG burden remains highest in East Asia. Across the Asian subregions, there was greater glaucoma burden in South-Central and East Asia. Sustainable public health strategies to combat glaucoma in Asia are needed. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to

  13. Planning research on the next strategical project through the trend analysis on radiation fusion technology, industry and policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Dong Sub; Choi, Jae Hak; Kim, Tak Hyun

    2013-01-01

    Ο The planning research for establish a detailed implementation strategy to serve as small, but a strong institution leading national radiation research and resolving the pending issues related to using radiation - Now is a time when it needs a implementation strategy to achieve it's unique mission as the sole radiation-specialized research institute leading to promote the radiation industry. Ο The main background of this study is to build the planning of a new paradigm for research and development to cope with the changing domestic and international environment for sustainable growth - As the domestic regional radiation field is getting more competitive and the cooperative group expands, it needs to adapt to the global trend such as technology convergence and acceleration etc.. - The need for establish basic database to make a new strategy in order to narrow the technology gap in the radiation fusion technology comparing to the developed country and cope with emerging country's advancement in technology Ο The use to build basic database to spearhead the project and set aside a budget effectively - It's to be used as a reference to set aside a budget through planning strategy industry field to forecast the industrial demand and variation of the future policy and create blue ocean and niche markets

  14. Aviation Trends Related to Atmospheric Environment Safety Technologies Project Technical Challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reveley, Mary S.; Withrow, Colleen A.; Barr, Lawrence C.; Evans, Joni K.; Leone, Karen M.; Jones, Sharon M.

    2014-01-01

    Current and future aviation safety trends related to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Atmospheric Environment Safety Technologies Project's three technical challenges (engine icing characterization and simulation capability; airframe icing simulation and engineering tool capability; and atmospheric hazard sensing and mitigation technology capability) were assessed by examining the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) accident database (1989 to 2008), incidents from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) accident/incident database (1989 to 2006), and literature from various industry and government sources. The accident and incident data were examined for events involving fixed-wing airplanes operating under Federal Aviation Regulation (FAR) Parts 121, 135, and 91 for atmospheric conditions related to airframe icing, ice-crystal engine icing, turbulence, clear air turbulence, wake vortex, lightning, and low visibility (fog, low ceiling, clouds, precipitation, and low lighting). Five future aviation safety risk areas associated with the three AEST technical challenges were identified after an exhaustive survey of a variety of sources and include: approach and landing accident reduction, icing/ice detection, loss of control in flight, super density operations, and runway safety.

  15. A project investigating music therapy referral trends within palliative care: an Australian perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horne-Thompson, Anne; Daveson, Barbara; Hogan, Bridgit

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this project is to analyze music therapy (MT) referral trends from palliative care team members across nine Australian inpatient and community-based palliative care settings. For each referral 6 items were collected: referral source, reason and type; time from Palliative Care Program (PCP) admission to MT referral; time from MT referral to death/discharge; and profile of referred patient. Participants (196 female, 158 male) were referred ranging in age from 4-98 years and most were diagnosed with cancer (91%, n = 323). Nurses (47%, n = 167) referred most frequently to music therapy. The mean average time in days for all referrals from PCP admission to MT referral was 11.47 and then 5.19 days to time of death. Differences in length of time to referral ranged from 8.19 days (allied health staff) to 43.75 days (families). Forty-eight percent of referrals (48.5%, n = 172) were completed when the patient was rated at an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance (ECOG) of three. Sixty-nine percent (n = 244) were living with others at the time of referral and most were Australian born. Thirty-six percent (36.7%, n = 130) were referred for symptom-based reasons, and 24.5% (n = 87) for support and coping. Implications for service delivery of music therapy practice, interdisciplinary care and benchmarking of music therapy services shall be discussed.

  16. Climate change projections over three metropolitan regions in Southeast Brazil using the non-hydrostatic Eta regional climate model at 5-km resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyra, Andre; Tavares, Priscila; Chou, Sin Chan; Sueiro, Gustavo; Dereczynski, Claudine; Sondermann, Marcely; Silva, Adan; Marengo, José; Giarolla, Angélica

    2018-04-01

    The objective of this work is to assess changes in three metropolitan regions of Southeast Brazil (Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, and Santos) based on the projections produced by the Eta Regional Climate Model (RCM) at very high spatial resolution, 5 km. The region, which is densely populated and extremely active economically, is frequently affected by intense rainfall events that trigger floods and landslides during the austral summer. The analyses are carried out for the period between 1961 and 2100. The 5-km simulations are results from a second downscaling nesting in the HadGEM2-ES RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 simulations. Prior to the assessment of the projections, the higher resolution simulations were evaluated for the historical period (1961-1990). The comparison between the 5-km and the coarser driver model simulations shows that the spatial patterns of precipitation and temperature of the 5-km Eta simulations are in good agreement with the observations. The simulated frequency distribution of the precipitation and temperature extremes from the 5-km Eta RCM is consistent with the observed structure and extreme values. Projections of future climate change using the 5-km Eta runs show stronger warming in the region, primarily during the summer season, while precipitation is strongly reduced. Projected temperature extremes show widespread heating with maximum temperatures increasing by approximately 9 °C in the three metropolitan regions by the end of the century in the RCP8.5 scenario. A trend of drier climate is also projected using indices based on daily precipitation, which reaches annual rainfall reductions of more than 50 % in the state of Rio de Janeiro and between 40 and 45 % in São Paulo and Santos. The magnitude of these changes has negative implications to the population health conditions, energy security, and economy.

  17. Trends of major disease outbreaks in the African region, 2003-2007.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kebede, Senait; Duales, Sambe; Yokouide, Allarangar; Alemu, Wondimagegnehu

    2010-03-01

    Communicable disease outbreaks cause millions of deaths throughout Sub-Saharan Africa each year. Most of the diseases causing epidemics in the region have been nearly eradicated or brought under control in other parts of the world. In recent years, considerable effort has been directed toward public health initiatives and strategies with a potential for significant impact in the fight against infectious diseases. In 1998, the World Health Organization African Regional Office (WHO/AFRO) launched the Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (IDSR) strategy aimed at mitigating the impact of communicable diseases, including epidemic-prone diseases, through improving surveillance, laboratory confirmation and appropriate and timely public health interventions. Over the past decade, WHO and its partners have been providing technical and financial resources to African countries to strengthen epidemic preparedness and response (EPR) activities. This review examined the major epidemics reported to WHO/AFRO from 2003 to 2007. we conduct a review of documents and reports obtained from WHO/AFRO, WHO inter-country team, and partners and held meeting and discussions with key stakeholders to elicit the experiences of local, regional and international efforts against these epidemics to evaluate the lessons learned and to stimulate discussion on the future course for enhancing EPR. The most commonly reported epidemic outbreaks in Africa include: cholera, dysentery, malaria and hemorrhagic fevers (e.g. Ebola, Rift Valley fever, Crimean-Congo fever and yellow fever). The cyclic meningococcal meningitis outbreak that affects countries along the "meningitis belt" (spanning Sub-Saharan Africa from Senegal and The Gambia to Kenya and Ethiopia) accounts for other major epidemics in the region. The reporting of disease outbreaks to WHO/AFRO has improved since the launch of the IDSR strategy in 1998. Although the epidemic trends for cholera showed a decline in case fatality rate (CFR

  18. The Middle Eastern Regional Irrigation Management Information Systems project-update

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Middle Eastern Regional Irrigation Management Information Systems Project (MERIMIS) was formulated at a meeting of experts from the region in Jordan in 2003. Funded by the U.S. Department of State, it is a cooperative regional project bringing together participants from Israel, Jordan, Palestini...

  19. Analysis of the projected regional sea-ice changes in the Southern Ocean during the twenty-first century

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lefebvre, W.; Goosse, H. [Universite Catholique de Louvain, Institut d' Astronomie et de Geophysique Georges Lemaitre, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium)

    2008-01-15

    Using the set of simulations performed with atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4), the projected regional distribution of sea ice for the twenty-first century has been investigated. Averaged over all those model simulations, the current climate is reasonably well reproduced. However, this averaging procedure hides the errors from individual models. Over the twentieth century, the multimodel average simulates a larger sea-ice concentration decrease around the Antarctic Peninsula compared to other regions, which is in qualitative agreement with observations. This is likely related to the positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index over the twentieth century, in both observations and in the multimodel average. Despite the simulated positive future trend in SAM, such a regional feature around the Antarctic Peninsula is absent in the projected sea-ice change for the end of the twenty-first century. The maximum decrease is indeed located over the central Weddell Sea and the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Seas. In most models, changes in the oceanic currents could play a role in the regional distribution of the sea ice, especially in the Ross Sea, where stronger southward currents could be responsible for a smaller sea-ice decrease during the twenty-first century. Finally, changes in the mixed layer depth can be found in some models, inducing locally strong changes in the sea-ice concentration. (orig.)

  20. Rain-season trends in precipitation and their effect in different climate regions of China during 1961-2008

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song Yanling; Achberger, Christine; Linderholm, Hans W

    2011-01-01

    Using high-quality precipitation data from 524 stations, the trends of a set of precipitation variables during the main rain season (May-September) from 1961 to 2008 for different climate regions in China were analysed. However, different characteristics were displayed in different regions of China. In most temperate monsoon regions (north-eastern China), total rain-season precipitation and precipitation days showed decreasing trends; positive tendencies in precipitation intensity were, however, noted for most stations in this region. It is suggested that the decrease in rain-season precipitation is mainly related to there being fewer rain days and a change towards drier conditions in north-eastern China, and as a result, the available water resources have been negatively affected in the temperate monsoon regions. In most subtropical and tropical monsoon climate regions (south-eastern China), the rain-season precipitation and precipitation days (11-50, with > 50 mm) showed slightly positive trends. However, precipitation days with ≤ 10 mm decreased in these regions. Changes towards wetter conditions in this area, together with more frequent heavy rainfall events causing floods, have a severe impact on peoples' lives and socio-economic development. In general, the rain-season precipitation, precipitation days and rain-season precipitation intensity had all increased in the temperate continental and plateau/mountain regions of western China. This increase in rain-season precipitation has been favourable to pasture growth.

  1. Trends in the oncological incidence and mortality rates in Buhovo, Dolni Bogrov, Gorni Bogrov - regions with radio ecological problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yagova, A.; Chobanova, N.; Bajrakova, A.

    2001-01-01

    A retrospective study is carried out to analyze the incidence and mortality trends of some malignant neoplasms in regions at relatively high radioecological risk near former uranium sites (Buhovo, Dolni Bogrov, Gorni Bogrov). Information sources are official medical statistics data, original records and database of the Oncological Dispensary in Sofia. A package of statistical programs SPSS, version 7.5, is used for the statistical analysis. The analysis didn't confirm the increase of incidence /mortality rate trends of radiation-related diseases in these regions in comparison with the same indices for the country within that period. (author)

  2. How well do regional or national Breeding Bird Survey data predict songbird population trends at an intact boreal site?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Craig S. Machtans

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available A study to monitor boreal songbird trends was initiated in 1998 in a relatively undisturbed and remote part of the boreal forest in the Northwest Territories, Canada. Eight years of point count data were collected over the 14 years of the study, 1998-2011. Trends were estimated for 50 bird species using generalized linear mixed-effects models, with random effects to account for temporal (repeat sampling within years and spatial (stations within stands autocorrelation and variability associated with multiple observers. We tested whether regional and national Breeding Bird Survey (BBS trends could, on average, predict trends in our study area. Significant increases in our study area outnumbered decreases by 12 species to 6, an opposite pattern compared to Alberta (6 versus 15, respectively and Canada (9 versus 20. Twenty-two species with relatively precise trend estimates (precision to detect > 30% decline in 10 years; observed SE ≤ 3.7%/year showed nonsignificant trends, similar to Alberta (24 and Canada (20. Precision-weighted trends for a sample of 19 species with both reliable trends at our site and small portions of their range covered by BBS in Canada were, on average, more negative for Alberta (1.34% per year lower and for Canada (1.15% per year lower relative to Fort Liard, though 95% credible intervals still contained zero. We suggest that part of the differences could be attributable to local resource pulses (insect outbreak. However, we also suggest that the tendency for BBS route coverage to disproportionately sample more southerly, developed areas in the boreal forest could result in BBS trends that are not representative of range-wide trends for species whose range is centred farther north.

  3. Analysis of projects development of enterprises in engineering industries in Khmelnytskyi region

    OpenAIRE

    SHKODA M.S.

    2012-01-01

    This article analyzes the use of development projects in the engineering industry of Khmelnitsky region. The current state of engineering field. Solves warehouse development projects engineering enterprises and activities to enhance their implementation.

  4. Infant mortality trends in a region of Belarus, 1980–2000

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lawvere Silvana

    2004-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Chernobyl disaster in 1986 and the breakup of the former Soviet Union (FSU in 1991 challenged the public health infrastructure in the former Soviet republic of Belarus. Because infant mortality is regarded as a sensitive measure of the overall health of a population, patterns of neonatal and postneonatal deaths were examined within the Mogilev region of Belarus between 1980 and 2000. Methods Employing administrative death files, this study utilized a regional cohort design that included all infant deaths occurring among persons residing within the Mogilev oblast of Belarus between 1980 and 2000. Patterns of death and death rates were examined across 3 intervals: 1980–1985 (pre-Chernobyl, 1986–1991 (post-Chernobyl & pre-FSU breakup, and 1992–2000 (post-Chernobyl & post-FSU breakup. Results Annual infant mortality rates declined during the 1980s, increased during the early 1990s, and have remained stable thereafter. While infant mortality rates in Mogilev have decreased since the period 1980–1985 among both males and females, this decrement appears due to decreases in postneonatal mortality. Rates of postneonatal mortality in Mogilev have decreased since the period 1980–1985 among both males and females. Analyses of trends for infant mortality and neonatal mortality demonstrated continuous decreases between 1990, followed by a bell-shaped excess in the 1990's. Compared to rates of infant mortality for other countries, rates in the Mogilev region are generally higher than rates for the United States, but lower than rates in Russia. During the 1990s, rates for both neonatal and postneonatal mortality in Mogilev were two times the comparable rates for East and West Germany. Conclusions While neonatal mortality rates in Mogilev have remained stable, rates for postneonatal mortality have decreased among both males and females during the period examined. Infant mortality rates in the Mogilev region of Belarus remain

  5. Spatial and topographic trends in forest expansion and biomass change, from regional to local scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buma, Brian; Barrett, Tara M

    2015-09-01

    Natural forest growth and expansion are important carbon sequestration processes globally. Climate change is likely to increase forest growth in some regions via CO2 fertilization, increased temperatures, and altered precipitation; however, altered disturbance regimes and climate stress (e.g. drought) will act to reduce carbon stocks in forests as well. Observations of asynchrony in forest change is useful in determining current trends in forest carbon stocks, both in terms of forest density (e.g. Mg ha(-1) ) and spatially (extent and location). Monitoring change in natural (unmanaged) areas is particularly useful, as while afforestation and recovery from historic land use are currently large carbon sinks, the long-term viability of those sinks depends on climate change and disturbance dynamics at their particular location. We utilize a large, unmanaged biome (>135 000 km(2) ) which spans a broad latitudinal gradient to explore how variation in location affects forest density and spatial patterning: the forests of the North American temperate rainforests in Alaska, which store >2.8 Pg C in biomass and soil, equivalent to >8% of the C in contiguous US forests. We demonstrate that the regional biome is shifting; gains exceed losses and are located in different spatio-topographic contexts. Forest gains are concentrated on northerly aspects, lower elevations, and higher latitudes, especially in sheltered areas, whereas loss is skewed toward southerly aspects and lower latitudes. Repeat plot-scale biomass data (n = 759) indicate that within-forest biomass gains outpace losses (live trees >12.7 cm diameter, 986 Gg yr(-1) ) on gentler slopes and in higher latitudes. This work demonstrates that while temperate rainforest dynamics occur at fine spatial scales (biomass accumulation suggest the potential for relatively rapid biome shifts and biomass changes. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Water in Star-forming Regions with Herschel (WISH): recent results and trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Dishoeck, E. F.

    2012-03-01

    Water is a key molecule in the physics and chemistry of star- and planet-forming regions. In the `Water in Star-forming Regions with Herschel' (WISH) Key Program, we have obtained a comprehensive set of water data toward a large sample of well-characterized protostars, covering a wide range of masses and luminosities --from the lowest to the highest mass protostars--, as well as evolutionary stages --from pre-stellar cores to disks. Lines of both ortho- and para-H_2O and their isotopologues, as well as chemically related hydrides, are observed with the HIFI and PACS instruments. The data elucidate the physical processes responsible for the warm gas, probe dynamical processes associated with forming stars and planets (outflow, infall, expansion), test basic chemical processes and reveal the chemical evolution of water and the oxygen-reservoir into planet-forming disks. In this brief talk a few recent WISH highlights will be presented, including determinations of the water abundance in each of the different physical components (inner and outer envelope, outflow) and constraints on the ortho/para ratio. Special attention will be given to trends found across the sample, especially the similarity in profiles from low to high-mass protostars and the evolution of the gas-phase water abundance from prestellar cores to disks. More details can be found at http://www.strw.leidenuniv.nl/WISH, whereas overviews are given in van Dishoeck et al. (2011, PASP 123, 138), Kristensen & van Dishoeck (2011, Astronomische Nachrichten 332, 475) and Bergin & van Dishoeck (2012, Phil. Trans. Royal Soc. A).

  7. The energy divide: Integrating energy transitions, regional inequalities and poverty trends in the European Union

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouzarovski, Stefan; Tirado Herrero, Sergio

    2016-01-01

    Energy poverty can be understood as the inability of a household to secure a socially and materially necessitated level of energy services in the home. While the condition is widespread across Europe, its spatial and social distribution is highly uneven. In this paper, the existence of a geographical energy poverty divide in the European Union (EU) provides a starting point for conceptualizing and exploring the relationship between energy transitions – commonly described as wide-ranging processes of socio-technical change – and existing patterns of regional economic inequality. We have undertaken a comprehensive analysis of spatial and temporal trends in the national-scale patterns of energy poverty, as well as gas and electricity prices. The results of our work indicate that the classic economic development distinction between the core and periphery also holds true in the case of energy poverty, as the incidence of this phenomenon is significantly higher in Southern and Eastern European EU Member States. The paper thus aims to provide the building blocks for a novel theoretical integration of questions of path-dependency, uneven development and material deprivation in existing interpretations of energy transitions. PMID:28690374

  8. Trend analysis of watershed-scale precipitation over Northern California by means of dynamically-downscaled CMIP5 future climate projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishida, K; Gorguner, M; Ercan, A; Trinh, T; Kavvas, M L

    2017-08-15

    The impacts of climate change on watershed-scale precipitation through the 21st century were investigated over eight study watersheds in Northern California based on dynamically downscaled CMIP5 future climate projections from three GCMs (CCSM4, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future climate scenarios. After evaluating the modeling capability of the WRF model, the six future climate projections were dynamically downscaled by means of the WRF model over Northern California at 9km grid resolution and hourly temporal resolution during a 94-year period (2006-2100). The biases in the model simulations were corrected, and basin-average precipitation over the eight study watersheds was calculated from the dynamically downscaled precipitation data. Based on the dynamically downscaled basin-average precipitation, trends in annual depth and annual peaks of basin-average precipitation during the 21st century were analyzed over the eight study watersheds. The analyses in this study indicate that there may be differences between trends of annual depths and annual peaks of watershed-scale precipitation during the 21st century. Furthermore, trends in watershed-scale precipitation under future climate conditions may be different for different watersheds depending on their location and topography even if they are in the same region. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Analyzing Multidecadal Trends in Cloudiness Over the Subtropical Andes Mountains of South America Using a Regional Climate Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaitchik, B. F.; Russell, A.; Gnanadesikan, A.

    2016-12-01

    Satellite-based products indicate that many parts of South America have been experiencing increases in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and corresponding decreases in cloudiness over the last few decades, with the strongest trends occurring in the subtropical Andes Mountains - an area that is highly vulnerable to climate change due to its reliance on glacial melt for dry-season runoff. Changes in cloudiness may be contributing to increases in atmospheric temperature, thereby raising the freezing level height (FLH) - a critical geophysical parameter. Yet these trends are only partially captured in reanalysis products, while AMIP climate models generally show no significant trend in OLR over this timeframe, making it difficult to determine the underlying drivers. Therefore, controlled numerical experiments with a regional climate model are performed in order to investigate drivers of the observed OLR and cloudiness trends. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) is used here because it offers several advantages over global models, including higher resolution - a critical asset in areas of complex topography - as well as flexible physics, parameterization, and data assimilation capabilities. It is likely that changes in the mean states and meridional gradients of SSTs in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans are driving regional trends in clouds. A series of lower boundary manipulations are performed with WRF to determine to what extent changes in SSTs influence regional OLR.

  10. Groundwater-quality data and regional trends in the Virginia Coastal Plain, 1906-2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    McFarland, Randolph E.

    2010-01-01

    A newly developed regional perspective of the hydrogeology of the Virginia Coastal Plain incorporates updated information on groundwater quality in the area. Local-scale groundwater-quality information is provided by a comprehensive dataset compiled from multiple Federal and State agency databases. Groundwater-sample chemical-constituent values and related data are presented in tables, summaries, location maps, and discussions of data quality and limitations. Spatial trends in groundwater quality and related processes at the regional scale are determined from interpretive analyses of the sample data. Major ions that dominate the chemical composition of groundwater in the deep Piney Point, Aquia, and Potomac aquifers evolve eastward and with depth from (1) 'hard' water, dominated by calcium and magnesium cations and bicarbonate and carbonate anions, to (2) 'soft' water, dominated by sodium and potassium cations and bicarbonate and carbonate anions, and lastly to (3) 'salty' water, dominated by sodium and potassium cations and chloride anions. Chemical weathering of subsurface sediments is followed by ion exchange by clay and glauconite, and subsequently by mixing with seawater along the saltwater-transition zone. The chemical composition of groundwater in the shallower surficial and Yorktown-Eastover aquifers, and in basement bedrock along the Fall Zone, is more variable as a result of short flow paths between closely located recharge and discharge areas and possibly some solutes originating from human sources. The saltwater-transition zone is generally broad and landward-dipping, based on groundwater chloride concentrations that increase eastward and with depth. The configuration is convoluted across the Chesapeake Bay impact crater, however, where it is warped and mounded along zones having vertically inverted chloride concentrations that decrease with depth. Fresh groundwater has flushed seawater from subsurface sediments preferentially around the impact crater

  11. Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2012: Market Trends and Projections to 2017

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-07-01

    Supply shortfalls – from the Libyan civil war in 2011 and international sanctions on Iran in 2012 to a swathe of unplanned non-OPEC output stoppages – have buffeted the oil market, sending prices near 2008 highs and rekindling debate on the role of speculation in fuelling volatility. There have also been success stories. Growth in North American light, tight oil and non-conventional supply has reached game-changing levels. Iraqi production has scaled new heights, the Libyan production recovery in 2012 defied expectations and Saudi output surged to 30-year highs. On the demand front, the economic recovery has lost momentum. Market share continues to shift from mature to newly industrialised economies, but amid persistent concerns about the health of the former; China, the leading engine of oil demand growth of the last 15 years, is giving signs of slowdown. Those developments have challenged earlier assumptions and significantly changed the oil market outlook for the next five years. The IEA Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) – companion to the monthly OMR – draws their implications for the future. It provides detailed projections for oil supply at field level, crude quality trends, demand by product, refined product output and oil investments through 2017. It examines oil price formation, regulatory changes, OPEC dynamics and the future of spare capacity – while also reviewing the contribution of new supplies from deepwater, light tight oil, biofuel and natural gas liquids. It explores how market changes are reshaping the refining industry – and what that means for trade flows. At a time of heightened economic and geopolitical risk, MTOMR is essential reading for anyone interested in oil market dynamics and in understanding the oil market context in which these risks are playing out.

  12. Greenhouse gas emission trends and projections in Europe 2011. Tracking progress towards Kyoto and 2020 targets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Busche, J.; Scheffler, M.; Graichen, V. (Umweltbundesamt, Vienna (Austria)) (and others)

    2011-10-15

    At the end of 2010, the EU-15 was on track to achieve its Kyoto target but three EU-15 Member States (Austria, Italy and Luxembourg) were not on track to meet their burden-sharing targets. These countries must therefore seriously consider further action to ensure compliance, in particular revising their plans on using flexible mechanisms. Among the EEA member countries outside the EU, Liechtenstein and Switzerland were not on track to achieve their Kyoto target at the end of 2009. All other European countries are on track to meet their targets, either based on domestic emissions only or with the assistance of Kyoto mechanisms. The economic recession had a significant impact on the EU's total greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends but a more limited effect on progress towards Kyoto targets. This is because emissions in the sectors covered by the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), which were most affected by the crisis, do not affect Kyoto compliance once ETS caps have been set. With existing national measures, Member States do not project enough emission reductions for the EU to meet its unilateral 20 % reduction commitment in 2020. Additional measures currently planned by Member States will help further reduce emissions but will be insufficient to achieve the important emission cuts needed in the longer term. By 2020 Member States must enhance their efforts to reduce emissions in non-EU ETS sectors, such as the residential, transport or agriculture sectors, where legally binding national targets have been set under the EU's 2009 climate and energy package. (Author)

  13. North American Carbon Project (NACP) Regional Model-Model and Model-Data Intercomparison Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huntzinger, D. N.; Post, W. M.; Jacobson, A. R.; Cook, R. B.

    2009-05-01

    Available observations are localized and widely separated in both space and time, so we depend heavily on models to characterize, understand, and predict carbon fluxes at regional and global scales. The results from each model differ because they use different approaches (forward vs. inverse), modeling strategies (detailed process, statistical, observation based), process representation, boundary conditions, initial conditions, and driver data. To investigate these differences we conducted a model-model and model-data comparison using available forward ecosystem model and atmospheric inverse output, along with regional scale inventory data. Forward or "bottom-up" models typically estimate carbon fluxes through a set of physiological relationships, and are based on our current mechanistic understanding of how carbon is exchanged within ecosystems. Inverse or "top-down" analyses use measured atmospheric concentrations of CO2, coupled with an atmospheric transport model to infer surface flux distributions. Although bottom-up models do fairly well at reproducing measured fluxes (i.e., net ecosystem exchange) at a given location, they vary considerably in their estimates of carbon flux over regional or continental scales, suggesting difficulty in scaling mechanistic relationships to large areas and/or timescales. Conversely, top-down inverse models predict fluxes that are quantitatively consistent with atmospheric measurements, suggesting that they are capturing large scale variability in flux quite well, but offer limited insights into the processes controlling this variability and how fluxes vary at fine spatial scales. The analyses focused on identifying and quantifying spatial and temporal patterns of carbon fluxes among the models; quantifying across-model variability, as well as comparing simulated or estimated surface fluxes and biomass to observed values at regional to continental scales for the period 2000-2005. The analysis focused on the following three

  14. Assessment of the Ability of Contemporary Climate Models to Assess Adequately the Risk of Possible Regional Anomalies and Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mokhov, I. I.

    2018-04-01

    The results describing the ability of contemporary global and regional climate models not only to assess the risk of general trends of changes but also to predict qualitatively new regional effects are presented. In particular, model simulations predicted spatially inhomogeneous changes in the wind and wave conditions in the Arctic basins, which have been confirmed in recent years. According to satellite and reanalysis data, a qualitative transition to the regime predicted by model simulations occurred about a decade ago.

  15. A second hydrocarbon boom threatens the Peruvian Amazon: trends, projections, and policy implications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Finer, Matt [Save America' s Forests, 4 Library Court NW, Washington, DC 20003 (United States); Orta-Martinez, Marti, E-mail: matt@saveamericasforests.or, E-mail: martiorta@gmail.co [Institut de Ciencia i Tecnologia Ambiental, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, 08193 Bellaterra (Barcelona) (Spain)

    2010-01-15

    The Peruvian Amazon is home to extraordinary biological and cultural diversity, and vast swaths of this mega-diverse region remain largely intact. Recent analysis indicates, however, that the rapid proliferation of oil and gas exploration zones now threatens the region's biodiversity, indigenous peoples, and wilderness areas. To better elucidate this dynamic situation, we analyzed official Peruvian government hydrocarbon information and generated a quantitative analysis of the past, present, and future of oil and gas activities in the Peruvian Amazon. We document an extensive hydrocarbon history for the region-over 104 000 km of seismic lines and 679 exploratory and production wells-highlighted by a major exploration boom in the early 1970s. We show that an unprecedented 48.6% of the Peruvian Amazon has been recently covered by oil and gas concessions, up from just 7.1% in 2003. These oil and gas concessions overlap 17.1% of the Peruvian Amazon protected area system and over half of all titled indigenous lands. Moreover, we found that up to 72% of the Peruvian Amazon has been zoned for hydrocarbon activities (concessions plus technical evaluation agreements and proposed concessions) in the past two years, and over 84% at some point during the past 40 years. We project that the recent rapid proliferation of hydrocarbon zones will lead to a second exploration boom, characterized by over 20 000 km of new seismic testing and construction of over 180 new exploratory wells in remote, intact, and sensitive forest areas. As the Peruvian Amazon oil frontier rapidly expands, we conclude that a rigorous policy debate is urgently needed in order to avoid the major environmental impacts associated with the first exploration boom of the 1970s and to minimize the social conflict that recently led to deadly encounters between indigenous protesters and government forces.

  16. A second hydrocarbon boom threatens the Peruvian Amazon: trends, projections, and policy implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finer, Matt; Orta-Martinez, Marti

    2010-01-01

    The Peruvian Amazon is home to extraordinary biological and cultural diversity, and vast swaths of this mega-diverse region remain largely intact. Recent analysis indicates, however, that the rapid proliferation of oil and gas exploration zones now threatens the region's biodiversity, indigenous peoples, and wilderness areas. To better elucidate this dynamic situation, we analyzed official Peruvian government hydrocarbon information and generated a quantitative analysis of the past, present, and future of oil and gas activities in the Peruvian Amazon. We document an extensive hydrocarbon history for the region-over 104 000 km of seismic lines and 679 exploratory and production wells-highlighted by a major exploration boom in the early 1970s. We show that an unprecedented 48.6% of the Peruvian Amazon has been recently covered by oil and gas concessions, up from just 7.1% in 2003. These oil and gas concessions overlap 17.1% of the Peruvian Amazon protected area system and over half of all titled indigenous lands. Moreover, we found that up to 72% of the Peruvian Amazon has been zoned for hydrocarbon activities (concessions plus technical evaluation agreements and proposed concessions) in the past two years, and over 84% at some point during the past 40 years. We project that the recent rapid proliferation of hydrocarbon zones will lead to a second exploration boom, characterized by over 20 000 km of new seismic testing and construction of over 180 new exploratory wells in remote, intact, and sensitive forest areas. As the Peruvian Amazon oil frontier rapidly expands, we conclude that a rigorous policy debate is urgently needed in order to avoid the major environmental impacts associated with the first exploration boom of the 1970s and to minimize the social conflict that recently led to deadly encounters between indigenous protesters and government forces.

  17. e-Government project strengthens regional network in the Americas ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2016-06-22

    Jun 22, 2016 ... Building on the IDRC and Organization of American States partnership ... In an effort to showcase some of the major impacts of the IDRC project, ... There is ample evidence that addressing gender inequalities and empoweri.

  18. Southeast Region Headboat Survey-PPS Survey Design Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset is a record of trips selected during pilot procedures for the PPS design project designed to track the port agents ability to follow the PPS design and...

  19. Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station: an example of the state role in regional nuclear projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pasternak, A.

    1980-10-01

    A nuclear power plant siting policy which confines new construction to existing sites will lead to the formation of large regional power centers, each involving many utilities from several states. The Palo Verde Nuclear Project in Arizona has been examined in terms of the role state regulation plays in large regional nuclear projects. State regulatory processes do not reflect the regional nature of large power centers. Decisions and actions by individual state regulatory commissions create risk and uncertainty for all the utility participants in regional projects. A climate and mechanism to encourage and facilitate interstate cooperation are needed to enhance the viability of the confined siting policy and the regional power center concept

  20. Assessment of projected climate change in the Carpathian Region using the Holdridge life zone system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szelepcsényi, Zoltán; Breuer, Hajnalka; Kis, Anna; Pongrácz, Rita; Sümegi, Pál

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, expected changes in the spatial and altitudinal distribution patterns of Holdridge life zone (HLZ) types are analysed to assess the possible ecological impacts of future climate change for the Carpathian Region, by using 11 bias-corrected regional climate model simulations of temperature and precipitation. The distribution patterns of HLZ types are characterized by the relative extent, the mean centre and the altitudinal range. According to the applied projections, the following conclusions can be drawn: (a) the altitudinal ranges are likely to expand in the future, (b) the lower and upper altitudinal limits as well as the altitudinal midpoints may move to higher altitudes, (c) a northward shift is expected for most HLZ types and (d) the magnitudes of these shifts can even be multiples of those observed in the last century. Related to the northward shifts, the HLZ types warm temperate thorn steppe and subtropical dry forest can also appear in the southern segment of the target area. However, a large uncertainty in the estimated changes of precipitation patterns was indicated by the following: (a) the expected change in the coverage of the HLZ type cool temperate steppe is extremely uncertain because there is no consensus among the projections even in terms of the sign of the change (high inter-model variability) and (b) a significant trend in the westward/eastward shift is simulated just for some HLZ types (high temporal variability). Finally, it is important to emphasize that the uncertainty of our results is further enhanced by the fact that some important aspects (e.g. seasonality of climate variables, direct CO2 effect, etc.) cannot be considered in the estimating process.

  1. Potential RSM Projects: West Maui Region, Maui, Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-02-01

    Hawaii by Thomas D. Smith BACKGROUND: The Hawaii West Maui Region (Figure 1) was the focus of Hawaii Regional Sediment Management (RSM...Conservation Service; Hawaii Department of Land and Natural Resources, Division of Aquatic Resources; Hawaii Department of Transportation; Maui...County; University of Hawaii , Sea Grant; Sea Engineering, Inc.; Maui Nui Marine Resource Council; Coral Reef Alliance; The Nature Conservancy; Henningson

  2. Irvine Smart Grid Demonstration, a Regional Smart Grid Demonstration Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yinger, Robert [Southern California Edison Company, Rosemead, CA (United States); Irwin, Mark [Southern California Edison Company, Rosemead, CA (United States)

    2015-12-29

    ISGD was a comprehensive demonstration that spanned the electricity delivery system and extended into customer homes. The project used phasor measurement technology to enable substation-level situational awareness, and demonstrated SCE’s next-generation substation automation system. It extended beyond the substation to evaluate the latest generation of distribution automation technologies, including looped 12-kV distribution circuit topology using URCIs. The project team used DVVC capabilities to demonstrate CVR. In customer homes, the project evaluated HAN devices such as smart appliances, programmable communicating thermostats, and home energy management components. The homes were also equipped with energy storage, solar PV systems, and a number of energy efficiency measures (EEMs). The team used one block of homes to evaluate strategies and technologies for achieving ZNE. A home achieves ZNE when it produces at least as much renewable energy as the amount of energy it consumes annually. The project also assessed the impact of device-specific demand response (DR), as well as load management capabilities involving energy storage devices and plug-in electric vehicle charging equipment. In addition, the ISGD project sought to better understand the impact of ZNE homes on the electric grid. ISGD’s SENet enabled end-to-end interoperability between multiple vendors’ systems and devices, while also providing a level of cybersecurity that is essential to smart grid development and adoption across the nation. The ISGD project includes a series of sub-projects grouped into four logical technology domains: Smart Energy Customer Solutions, Next-Generation Distribution System, Interoperability and Cybersecurity, and Workforce of the Future. Section 2.3 provides a more detailed overview of these domains.

  3. Changing Trends of Skin Cancer: A Tertiary Care Hospital Study in Malwa Region of Punjab.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lal, Sonal Tina; Banipal, Raja Paramjeet Singh; Bhatti, Deepak John; Yadav, Hanuman Prasad

    2016-06-01

    Skin cancer constitutes a small but significant proportion of patients with cancer. Although the presence of eumelanin in dark skin is protective against the development of skin cancer, it is increasingly being diagnosed in the Indian population. To study the profile of skin cancer patients presenting to a tertiary hospital in Malwa area of Punjab, India. Retrospective study was done to analyse the profile of skin cancer patients who attended the institution over one year from 1(st) December 2013 to 30(th) November 2014. A comprehensive review of aetiology and related risk factors was done to correlate the environmental factors with high skin cancer prevalence in this region. Skin cancer constituted (3.18%) 84 out of 2638 patients registered with cancer of all types. The age of the patients was 62±14.2 years and ranged from 27 to 92 yrs. Basal cell carcinoma (BCC) was the most common histological type(46/84, 54.76%) followed by squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) (31/84, 36.91%) and malignant melanoma (MM) (7/84, 8.33%). Male: female ratio was found to be 0.79:1. BCC showed higher female preponderance (phistory of prolonged exposure to sunlight. Skin cancer constitutes a small but significant proportion of patients with cancers. This study highlights a paradoxically increasing trend of BCC and female preponderance. Head and neck is the most common site involved. Exposure to Ultra Violet B (UVB) radiation and higher levels of arsenic in drinking water has been reported to be associated with skin cancers. Limited studies show that levels of arsenic and pesticides were higher in the samples of drinking water in Malwa area of Punjab. Therefore a multipronged strategy to provide safe drinking water supply and discouraging the indiscriminate use of pesticides is recommended.

  4. Integration project of regional markets in Europe (European directive)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez Fernandez-Castaneda, J. J.

    2010-01-01

    The article presents the current situation of the Day-Ahead electricity markets in the different countries and Regions along West Europe. It describes the different possibilities applied to congestion management in the borders between countries and price areas, and the options employed to couple Day-ahead markets to form regional markets in Europe. Finally, it presents the initiative to Price couple Regional markets (PCR) that is being developed by Nord pool spot, EPEX Spot and OMEL with the objective to advance towards the integration of the markets that they operate in the internal Electricity Market. (Author)

  5. Regional trends for bud burst and flowering of woody plants in Norway as related to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nordli, Ø.; Wielgolaski, F. E.; Bakken, A. K.; Hjeltnes, S. H.; Måge, F.; Sivle, A.; Skre, O.

    2008-09-01

    Data series for bud burst, beginning of flowering and petal fall for 20 species of deciduous trees and conifers at four sites in different regions of southern Norway have been analysed and related to temperature series. On average, the spring phenophases occurred 7 days earlier during the period 1971-2005. The most significant linear trends were observed for the earliest phases. The trends in this period were compared with trends in other periods, the longest one starting in 1927. Those starting in cold decades and ending in 2005 were in most instances statistically significant, whereas hardly any significant trend appeared for series starting in warm decades. This fact showed that the results of trend studies are very sensitive to the choice of starting year. There were significant decadal variations in 40% of the series. The dates of occurrence of the phenophases, varying from the first days of May to the first days of June, correlated with seasonal temperature series, in most cases strongest to mean temperatures for the seasons March-May and April-May. The North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) for January and February appeared to have some predictive power for the date of occurrence of the recorded phases. The basis for this may be that the oscillations described by the index are of importance for the fulfilment of physiological chilling requirements needed to break bud dormancy. The same genotypes of the trees were grown in region West Norway and in Central Norwegian region; during the period 1965-2005 the trends towards earlier bud burst were more pronounced and steeper at the western site.

  6. Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance: evaluating simulations and making projections with regional climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. G. L. Rae

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Four high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs have been set up for the area of Greenland, with the aim of providing future projections of Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB, and its contribution to sea level rise, with greater accuracy than is possible from coarser-resolution general circulation models (GCMs. This is the first time an intercomparison has been carried out of RCM results for Greenland climate and SMB. Output from RCM simulations for the recent past with the four RCMs is evaluated against available observations. The evaluation highlights the importance of using a detailed snow physics scheme, especially regarding the representations of albedo and meltwater refreezing. Simulations with three of the RCMs for the 21st century using SRES scenario A1B from two GCMs produce trends of between −5.5 and −1.1 Gt yr−2 in SMB (equivalent to +0.015 and +0.003 mm sea level equivalent yr−2, with trends of smaller magnitude for scenario E1, in which emissions are mitigated. Results from one of the RCMs whose present-day simulation is most realistic indicate that an annual mean near-surface air temperature increase over Greenland of ~ 2°C would be required for the mass loss to increase such that it exceeds accumulation, thereby causing the SMB to become negative, which has been suggested as a threshold beyond which the ice sheet would eventually be eliminated.

  7. EnviroAtlas - Ecosystem Service Market and Project Locations, U.S., 2015, Forest Trends' Ecosystem Marketplace

    Science.gov (United States)

    This EnviroAtlas dataset contains points depicting the location of market-based programs, referred to herein as markets, and projects addressing ecosystem services protection in the United States. The data were collected via surveys and desk research conducted by Forest Trends' Ecosystem Marketplace from 2008 to 2016 on biodiversity (i.e., imperiled species/habitats; wetlands and streams), carbon, and water markets. Additional biodiversity data were obtained from the Regulatory In-lieu Fee and Bank Information Tracking System (RIBITS) database in 2015. Points represent the centroids (i.e., center points) of market coverage areas, project footprints, or project primary impact areas in which ecosystem service markets or projects operate. National-level markets are an exception to this norm with points representing administrative headquarters locations. Attribute data include information regarding the methodology, design, and development of biodiversity, carbon, and water markets and projects. This dataset was produced by Forest Trends' Ecosystem Marketplace for EnviroAtlas in order to support public access to and use of information related to environmental markets. EnviroAtlas (https://www.epa.gov/enviroatlas) allows the user to interact with a web-based, easy-to-use, mapping application to view and analyze multiple ecosystem services for the contiguous United States. The dataset is available as downloadable data (https://edg.epa.gov/data/Public/ORD/EnviroAtlas) o

  8. Regional acidification trends in Florida shellfish estuaries: A 20+ year look at pH, oxygen, temperature, and salinity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robbins, Lisa L.; Lisle, John T.

    2018-01-01

    Increasing global CO2 and local land use changes coupled with increased nutrient pollution are threatening estuaries worldwide. Local changes of estuarine chemistry have been documented, but regional associations and trends comparing multiple estuaries latitudinally have not been evaluated. Rapid climate change has impacted the annual and decadal chemical trends in estuaries, with local ecosystem processes enhancing or mitigating the responses. Here, we compare pH, dissolved oxygen, temperature, and salinity data from 10 Florida shellfish estuaries and hundreds of shellfish bed stations. Over 80,000 measurements, spanning from 1980 to 2008, taken on Atlantic Ocean and West Florida coast showed significant regional trends of consistent pH decreases in 8 out of the 10 estuaries, with an average rate of decrease on the Gulf of Mexico side estuaries of Florida of 7.3 × 10−4 pH units year−1, and average decrease on the Atlantic Coast estuaries of 5.0 × 10−4 pH units year−1. The rates are approximately 2–3.4 times slower than observed in pH decreases associated with ocean acidification in the Atlantic and Pacific. Other significant trends observed include decreasing dissolved oxygen in 9 out of the 10 estuaries, increasing salinity in 6 out of the 10, and temperature increases in 3 out of the 10 estuaries. The data provide a synoptic regional view of Florida estuary trends which reflect the complexity of changing climate and coastal ocean acidification superimposed on local conditions. These data provide context for understanding, and interpreting the past and predicting future of regional water quality health of shellfish and other organisms of commercial and ecological significance along Florida’s coasts.

  9. Regional acidification trends in Florida shellfish estuaries: A 20+ year look at pH, oxygen, temperature and salinity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robbins, Lisa L.; Lisle, John T.

    2018-01-01

    Increasing global CO2 and local land use changes coupled with increased nutrient pollution are threatening estuaries worldwide. Local changes of estuarine chemistry have been documented, but regional associations and trends comparing multiple estuaries latitudinally have not been evaluated. Rapid climate change has impacted the annual and decadal chemical trends in estuaries, with local ecosystem processes enhancing or mitigating the responses. Here, we compare pH, dissolved oxygen, temperature, and salinity data from 10 Florida shellfish estuaries and hundreds of shellfish bed stations. Over 80,000 measurements, spanning from 1980 to 2008, taken on Atlantic Ocean and West Florida coast showed significant regional trends of consistent pH decreases in 8 out of the 10 estuaries, with an average rate of decrease on the Gulf of Mexico side estuaries of Florida of 7.3 × 10−4 pH units year−1, and average decrease on the Atlantic Coast estuaries of 5.0 × 10−4 pH units year−1. The rates are approximately 2–3.4 times slower than observed in pH decreases associated with ocean acidification in the Atlantic and Pacific. Other significant trends observed include decreasing dissolved oxygen in 9 out of the 10 estuaries, increasing salinity in 6 out of the 10, and temperature increases in 3 out of the 10 estuaries. The data provide a synoptic regional view of Florida estuary trends which reflect the complexity of changing climate and coastal ocean acidification superimposed on local conditions. These data provide context for understanding, and interpreting the past and predicting future of regional water quality health of shellfish and other organisms of commercial and ecological significance along Florida’s coasts.

  10. 40 CFR 93.127 - Projects exempt from regional emissions analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... analysis requirements. The local effects of these projects with respect to CO concentrations must be... determination. The local effects of projects with respect to PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations must be considered... 40 Protection of Environment 20 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Projects exempt from regional...

  11. Regional elevator survey : grain transportation & industry trends for Great Plains elevators

    Science.gov (United States)

    2001-08-01

    One potential means for gaining insight into the current state of the elevator industry, : and into expectations for future trends, is through a survey. The objective of this study is to profile the transportation and industry characteristics of the ...

  12. Regional projections of nuclear and fossil electric power generation costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smolen, G.R.; Delene, J.G.; Fuller, L.C.; Bowers, H.I.

    1983-12-01

    The total busbar electric generating costs were estimated for locations in ten regions of the United States for base load nuclear and coal-fired power plants with a startup date of January 1995. A complete data set is supplied which specifies each parameter used to obtain the comparative results. When the comparison is based on reference cost parameters, nuclear- and coal-fired generation costs are found to be very close in most regions of the country. Nuclear power is favored in the South Atlantic region where coal must be transported over long distances, while coal-fired generation is favored in the Central and North Central regions where large reserves of cheaply mineable coal exist. The reference data set reflects recent electric utility construction experience. Significantly lower nuclear capital investment costs would result if regulatory reform and improved construction practices were instituted. The electric power generation costs for base load oil- and natural gas-fired plants were also estimated. These plants were found to be noncompetitive in all regions for those scenarios most likely to develop. Generation cost sensitivity to changes in various parameters was examined at a reference location. The sensitivity parameters included capital investment costs, lead times, capacity factors, costs of money, and coal and uranium prices. In addition to the levelized lifetime costs, year-by-year cash flows and revenue requirements are presented. The report concludes with an analysis of the economic merits of recycling spent fuel in light-water reactors

  13. Project-based production and project management : Findings and trends in research on temporary systems in multiple contexts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pretorius, M.W.; Oerlemans, L.A.G.

    2014-01-01

    Globalisation is challenging almost every aspect of the political, economic, social and technological environment. Organisations, whether public or private, have to adapt their strategies and operations to stay competitive and efficient. Historically, organisations adopted project-based operations

  14. Multi-annual changes of NOx emissions in megacity regions: nonlinear trend analysis of satellite measurement based estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. P. Burrows

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Hazardous impact of air pollutant emissions from megacities on atmospheric composition on regional and global scales is currently an important issue in atmospheric research. However, the quantification of emissions and related effects is frequently a difficult task, especially in the case of developing countries, due to the lack of reliable data and information. This study examines possibilities to retrieve multi-annual NOx emissions changes in megacity regions from satellite measurements of nitrogen dioxide and to quantify them in terms of linear and nonlinear trends. By combining the retrievals of the GOME and SCIAMACHY satellite instrument data with simulations performed by the CHIMERE chemistry transport model, we obtain the time series of NOx emission estimates for the 12 largest urban agglomerations in Europe and the Middle East in the period from 1996 to 2008. We employ then a novel method allowing estimation of a nonlinear trend in a noisy time series of an observed variable. The method is based on the probabilistic approach and the use of artificial neural networks; it does not involve any quantitative a priori assumptions. As a result, statistically significant nonlinearities in the estimated NOx emission trends are detected in 5 megacities (Bagdad, Madrid, Milan, Moscow and Paris. Statistically significant upward linear trends are detected in Istanbul and Tehran, while downward linear trends are revealed in Berlin, London and the Ruhr agglomeration. The presence of nonlinearities in NOx emission changes in Milan, Paris and Madrid is confirmed by comparison of simulated NOx concentrations with independent air quality monitoring data. A good quantitative agreement between the linear trends in the simulated and measured near surface NOx concentrations is found in London.

  15. Warming patterns in regional climate change projections over the Iberian Peninsula

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gomez-Navarro, J.J.; Montavez, J.P.; Jimenez-Guerrero, P.; Jerez, S. [Murcia Univ. (Spain). Dept. de Fisica; Garcia-Valero, J.A. [Murcia Univ. (Spain). Dept. de Fisica; Delegacion Territorial en Murcia (ES). Agencia Estatal de Meteorologia (AEMET); Gonzalez-Rouco, J.F. [Univ. Complutense, Madrid (Spain). Dept. de Astrofisica y CC. de la Atmosfera

    2010-06-15

    A set of four regional climate change projections over the Iberian Peninsula has been performed. Simulations were driven by two General Circulation Models (consisting of two versions of the same atmospheric model coupled to two different ocean models) under two different SRES scenario. The XXI century has been simulated following a full-transient approach with a climate version of the mesoscale model MM5. An Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis (EOF) is applied to the monthly mean series of daily maximum and minimum 2-metre temperature to extract the warming signal. The first EOF is able to capture the spatial structure of the warming. The obtained warming patterns are fairly dependent on the month, but hardly change with the tested scenarios and GCM versions. Their shapes are related to geographical parameters, such as distance to the sea and orography. The main differences among simulations mostly concern the temporal evolution of the warming. The temperature trend is stronger for maximum temperatures and depends on the scenario and the driving GCM. This asymmetry, as well as the different warming rates in summer and winter, leads to a continentalization of the climate over the IP. (orig.)

  16. A forward looking approach to project management tools, trends, and the impact of disruptive technologies

    CERN Document Server

    Gurjar, Nikhil

    2017-01-01

    This book is intended as a basis for advanced treatment of concepts in project management. In the current scenario where most questions are answered through the internet, the knowledge element in project management has come under the influence of disruptive technologies. In other words, project managers no longer get 'points' for knowing something that is easily available on the internet. This has far-reaching consequences. The present day project managers need to orient themselves to newer benchmarks of what is required for success on the business front. This book deals with a few such advanced concepts in project management. This book is not designed as an elementary primer to the field of project management, rather it is an advanced level treatment on the subject, to be read after the preliminary study has already been completed. The book is designed for practicing project managers, and graduate students in engineering and management, who need to understand the dynamics that are typically encountered in a ...

  17. Analysis of trend in temperature and rainfall time series of an Indian arid region: comparative evaluation of salient techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machiwal, Deepesh; Gupta, Ankit; Jha, Madan Kumar; Kamble, Trupti

    2018-04-01

    This study investigated trends in 35 years (1979-2013) temperature (maximum, Tmax and minimum, Tmin) and rainfall at annual and seasonal (pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter) scales for 31 grid points in a coastal arid region of India. Box-whisker plots of annual temperature and rainfall time series depict systematic spatial gradients. Trends were examined by applying eight tests, such as Kendall rank correlation (KRC), Spearman rank order correlation (SROC), Mann-Kendall (MK), four modified MK tests, and innovative trend analysis (ITA). Trend magnitudes were quantified by Sen's slope estimator, and a new method was adopted to assess the significance of linear trends in MK-test statistics. It was found that the significant serial correlation is prominent in the annual and post-monsoon Tmax and Tmin, and pre-monsoon Tmin. The KRC and MK tests yielded similar results in close resemblance with the SROC test. The performance of two modified MK tests considering variance-correction approaches was found superior to the KRC, MK, modified MK with pre-whitening, and ITA tests. The performance of original MK test is poor due to the presence of serial correlation, whereas the ITA method is over-sensitive in identifying trends. Significantly increasing trends are more prominent in Tmin than Tmax. Further, both the annual and monsoon rainfall time series have a significantly increasing trend of 9 mm year-1. The sequential significance of linear trend in MK test-statistics is very strong (R 2 ≥ 0.90) in the annual and pre-monsoon Tmin (90% grid points), and strong (R 2 ≥ 0.75) in monsoon Tmax (68% grid points), monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter Tmin (respectively 65, 55, and 48% grid points), as well as in the annual and monsoon rainfalls (respectively 68 and 61% grid points). Finally, this study recommends use of variance-corrected MK test for the precise identification of trends. It is emphasized that the rising Tmax may hamper crop growth due to enhanced

  18. Downscaling wind and wavefields for 21st century coastal flood hazard projections in a region of complex terrain

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Andrea; Erikson, Li; Barnard, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    While global climate models (GCMs) provide useful projections of near-surface wind vectors into the 21st century, resolution is not sufficient enough for use in regional wave modeling. Statistically downscaled GCM projections from Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogues provide daily averaged near-surface winds at an appropriate spatial resolution for wave modeling within the orographically complex region of San Francisco Bay, but greater resolution in time is needed to capture the peak of storm events. Short-duration high wind speeds, on the order of hours, are usually excluded in statistically downscaled climate models and are of key importance in wave and subsequent coastal flood modeling. Here we present a temporal downscaling approach, similar to constructed analogues, for near-surface winds suitable for use in local wave models and evaluate changes in wind and wave conditions for the 21st century. Reconstructed hindcast winds (1975–2004) recreate important extreme wind values within San Francisco Bay. A computationally efficient method for simulating wave heights over long time periods was used to screen for extreme events. Wave hindcasts show resultant maximum wave heights of 2.2 m possible within the Bay. Changes in extreme over-water wind speeds suggest contrasting trends within the different regions of San Francisco Bay, but 21th century projections show little change in the overall magnitude of extreme winds and locally generated waves.

  19. The international project on innovative nuclear reactors and fuel cycles (INPRO) - status and trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gowin, Peter J.; Beatty, Randy L.

    2010-01-01

    The International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO) was initiated in 2000. As of April 2010, INPRO has 31 members and is implementing activities in five programme areas: A: Nuclear Energy System Assessments (NESA) using the INPRO Methodology Assisting Member States in performing Nuclear Energy System Assessments (NESA) using the INPRO methodology, in support of long-term strategic planning and nuclear energy deployment decision making. B: Global Vision Developing global and regional nuclear energy scenarios, on the basis of a scientific-technical pathway analysis, that lead to a global vision on sustainable nuclear energy development in the 21. century, and supporting Member States in working towards that vision. C: Innovations in Nuclear Technology Fostering collaboration among INPRO Member States on selected innovative nuclear technologies and related R and D that contribute to sustainable nuclear energy. D: Innovations in Institutional Arrangements Investigating and fostering collaboration on innovative institutional and legal arrangements for the use of innovative nuclear systems in the 21. century and supporting Member States in developing and implementing such innovative arrangements. E: INPRO Dialogue Forum Bringing together technology holders and technology users to discuss, debate and share information on desirable innovations, both technical and institutional, but also national long-term nuclear planning strategies and approaches and, on the highest level, the global nuclear energy system. The paper presents main INPRO achievements to date, the current status of activities in these five programme areas and recent INPRO publications, in particular in support of nuclear energy system assessments (NESA) using the INPRO methodology. (authors)

  20. Renewable Resources: a national catalog of model projects. Volume 1. Northeast Solar Energy Center Region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1980-07-01

    This compilation of diverse conservation and renewable energy projects across the United States was prepared through the enthusiastic participation of solar and alternate energy groups from every state and region. Compiled and edited by the Center for Renewable Resources, these projects reflect many levels of innovation and technical expertise. In many cases, a critique analysis is presented of how projects performed and of the institutional conditions associated with their success or failure. Some 2000 projects are included in this compilation; most have worked, some have not. Information about all is presented to aid learning from these experiences. The four volumes in this set are arranged in state sections by geographic region, coinciding with the four Regional Solar Energy Centers. The table of contents is organized by project category so that maximum cross-referencing may be obtained. This volume includes information on the Northeast Solar Energy Center Region. (WHK).

  1. Renewable Resources: a national catalog of model projects. Volume 3. Southern Solar Energy Center Region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1980-07-01

    This compilation of diverse conservation and renewable energy projects across the United States was prepared through the enthusiastic participation of solar and alternate energy groups from every state and region. Compiled and edited by the Center for Renewable Resources, these projects reflect many levels of innovation and technical expertise. In many cases, a critique analysis is presented of how projects performed and of the institutional conditions associated with their success or failure. Some 2000 projects are included in this compilation; most have worked, some have not. Information about all is presented to aid learning from these experiences. The four volumes in this set are arranged in state sections by geographic region, coinciding with the four Regional Solar Energy Centers. The table of contents is organized by project category so that maximum cross-referencing may be obtained. This volume includes information on the Southern Solar Energy Center Region. (WHK)

  2. Renewable Resources: a national catalog of model projects. Volume 4. Western Solar Utilization Network Region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1980-07-01

    This compilation of diverse conservation and renewable energy projects across the United States was prepared through the enthusiastic participation of solar and alternate energy groups from every state and region. Compiled and edited by the Center for Renewable Resources, these projects reflect many levels of innovation and technical expertise. In many cases, a critique analysis is presented of how projects performed and of the institutional conditions associated with their success or failure. Some 2000 projects are included in this compilation; most have worked, some have not. Information about all is presented to aid learning from these experiences. The four volumes in this set are arranged in state sections by geographic region, coinciding with the four Regional Solar Energy Centers. The table of contents is organized by project category so that maximum cross-referencing may be obtained. This volume includes information on the Western Solar Utilization Network Region. (WHK)

  3. Adaptation of Regional Representative Soil Project and Soil Judging for Cameroon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Che, Celestine Akuma

    2013-01-01

    Representative regional soils have agricultural, cultural, economic, environmental, and historical importance to Cameroon. Twenty seven regional representative soils have been identified in Cameroon. A set of laboratory exercises, assignments and exam questions have been developed utilizing the Regional Representative Soil Project (RRSP) that…

  4. 7 CFR 1486.103 - Are regional projects possible under the program?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... consideration provided such projects target qualifying emerging markets in the specified region. CCC may consider activities which target qualified emerging markets in a specific region, but are conducted in a non-emerging market because of its importance as a central location and ease of access to that region. ...

  5. "Mature Regionalism" and the Genesis of "Functional Projects": "Educational Regionalism" in Small (and Micro-States)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jules, Tavis D.

    2017-01-01

    This article advances that the movement towards "deeper" Caribbean integration has generated a shift from "immature" regionalism to a "mature" form of regionalism. Thus, mature regionalism, a new governance mechanism, in regulating the institutional and legal framework of Caribbean Single Market and Economy is…

  6. Technical Basis - Spent Nuclear Fuels (SNF) Project Radiation and Contamination Trending Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    ELGIN, J.C.

    2000-01-01

    This report documents the technical basis for the Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) Program radiation and contamination trending program. The program consists of standardized radiation and contamination surveys of the KE Basin, radiation surveys of the KW basin, radiation surveys of the Cold Vacuum Drying Facility (CVD), and radiation surveys of the Canister Storage Building (CSB) with the associated tracking. This report also discusses the remainder of radiological areas within the SNFP that do not have standardized trending programs and the basis for not having this program in those areas

  7. Recent trends on sterile insect technique and area-wide integrated pest management. Economic feasibility, control projects, farmer organization and Bactrocera dorsalis complex control study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-03-01

    We have invited professional papers from over the world, including Okinawa, for compilation of recent trends on Sterile Insect Techniques and Area-Wide Integrated Pest Management to further pursue environment friendly pest insects control measures in agricultural production in the Asia-Pacific region. Pest insects such as the tephritid fruit flies have long been and are still today causing serious damage to agricultural products in the Asia-Pacific region and farmers in the region apply such insecticides that are no longer allowed or being subjected to strict usage control in Japan. This, in return, may endanger the health of the very farmers, food safety and the ecosystem itself. The purpose of this report is, therefore, to clarify keys for technology transfer of so called SIT/AWIPM to potential recipients engaged in agricultural production in the region. This report focused on several topics, which make up important parts for the effective Sterile Insect Technique and Area-Wide Integrated Pest Management: economic feasibility; pest insects control projects; farmers' education; research progress in Bactrocera dorsalis complex issues specific to the Asia-Pacific region. The 12 of the papers are indexed individually. (J.P.N.)

  8. Regional climate projection based on RCP scenarios in the CORDEX East Asia Domain Using RegCM4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suh, M. S.; Oh, S. G.; Cha, D. H.; Kang, H. S.

    2012-04-01

    Regional climate projection data is essential to the adaptation and risk management for the expected climate change. In this stduy, we reproduced regional climate over CORDEX East Asia for 72 years from 1979 to 2050 with 50-km resolution using the latest regional climate model version 4, RegCM4, driven by HadGEM2-AO with about 135-km resolution under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5/4.5. Simulation skills of RegCM4 for the present climate (1980-2005, spin up time: 1979) over CORDEX East Asia are evaluated with CRU-TS (Climate Research Unit Time-Series) 3.0 and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project). And KMA ground observation data are also used for the detailed assessment of RegCM4 over South Korea. The evaluation results showed that RegCM4 reasonalbly simulated the spatial distribution, and inter-annual and seasonal variations of surface air temperature. However, it showed a non-negligible systemartic biases in the precipitation. In particular, the rainband accompanied by the seasonal march of East Asian summer monsoon was simulated too southward, below 30° N comparing to the GPCP. As a reulst, summer precipitation over South Korea and Japan island was significantly underestimated. Under RCP8.5 (RCP4.5) scenario, annual mean temperature over the CORDEX East Asia is expected to increase by + 1.6 oC(+1.4oC) above the present level (1980-2005) by the end of the future simulation period. Most of the regions (South-Korea, South-China, North-China, India, Japan, Mongolia) show the increaseing trend of surface air temperature. On the other hand, the future changes of precipitation are not systemaic at the most of regions and seasons. More detailed results including projected regional climate change will be discussed in the presentation.

  9. Glacier changes and climate trends derived from multiple sources in the data scarce Cordillera Vilcanota region, Southern Peruvian Andes

    OpenAIRE

    N. Salzmann; C. Huggel; M. Rohrer; W. Silverio; B. G. Mark; P. Burns; C. Portocarrero

    2012-01-01

    The role of glaciers as temporal water reservoirs is particularly pronounced in the (outer) tropics because of the very distinct wet/dry seasons. Rapid glacier retreat caused by climatic changes is thus a major concern, and decision makers demand urgently for regional/local glacier evolution trends, ice mass estimates and runoff assessments. However, in remote mountain areas, spatial and temporal data coverage is typically very scarce and this is further complicated by a high spatial and temp...

  10. Time trends for prostate cancer mortality in Brazil and its geographic regions: An age-period-cohort analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braga, Sonia Faria Mendes; de Souza, Mirian Carvalho; Cherchiglia, Mariangela Leal

    2017-10-01

    In the 1980s, an increase in mortality rates for prostate cancer was observed in North America and developed European countries. In the 1990s, however, mortality rates decreased for these countries, an outcome related to early detection of the disease. Conversely, an upward trend in mortality rates was observed in Brazil. This study describe the trends in mortality for prostate cancer in Brazil and geographic regions (North, Northeast, South, Southeast, and Central-West) between 1980 until 2014 and analyze the influence of age, period, and cohort effects on mortality rates. This time-series study used data from the Mortality Information System (SIM) and population data from Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The effects on mortality rates were examined using age-period-cohort (APC) models. Crude and standardized mortality rates showed an upward trend for Brazil and its regions more than 2-fold the last 30 years. Age effects showed an increased risk of death in all regions. Period effects showed a higher risk of death in the finals periods for the North and Northeast. Cohort effects showed risk of death was higher for younger than older generations in Brazil and regions, mainly Northeast (RR Adjusted =3.12, 95% CI 1.29-1.41; RR Adjusted =0.28, 95% CI 0.26-0.30, respectively). The increase in prostate cancer mortality rates in Brazil and its regions was mainly due to population aging. The differences in mortality rates and APC effects between regions are related to demographic differences and access of health services across the country. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Trends in the inter-regional and international research collaboration of the PRC’s regions: 2000-2015

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luwel, M.; Van Wijk, E.; Van der Wurff, L.J.; Wang, L.

    2016-07-01

    The regional structure of the PRC’s scientific output is analyzed using publications processed for the Web of Science. Over the period 2000-2015 and measured by the Salton Index of the co-publications the scientific collaboration among the PRC’s regions increased only slightly, in stark contrast with the USA’ states and during the most recent years the EU member countries. Only for research with other nations, representing about 30% of the total publication output, inter-regional collaboration is on the rise. For the leading PRC’s regions the USA is the dominant partner co-authoring about 50% of their publications. Germany and especially Japan seems to lose attractiveness to the advantage of the UK, Australia and neighboring Asian countries. (Author)

  12. Trends in diabetes incidence from 1992 to 2015 and projections for 2024: A Portuguese General Practitioner's Network study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Sousa-Uva, Mafalda; Antunes, L; Nunes, B; Rodrigues, A P; Simões, J A; Ribeiro, R T; Boavida, J M; Matias-Dias, C

    2016-10-01

    Diabetes is known as a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Portugal is known as the European country with the highest prevalence of this disease. While diabetes prevalence data is updated annually in Portugal, the General Practitioner's (GP) Sentinel Network represents the only data source on diabetes incidence. This study describes the trends in Diabetes incidence, between 1992 and 2015, and estimate projections for the future incidence rates in Portugal until 2024. An ecological time-series study was conducted using data from GP Sentinel Network between 1992 and 2015. Family doctors reported all new cases of Diabetes in their patients' lists. Annual trends were estimated through Poisson regression models as well as the future incidence rates (until 2024), sex and age group stratified. Incidence rate projections were adjusted to the distribution of the resident Portuguese population given Statistics Portugal projections. The average increase in Diabetes incidence rate was in total 4.29% (CI95% 3.80-4.80) per year under study. Until 1998-2000, the annual incidence rate was higher in women, and from 1998-2000 to 2013-2015 turn out to be higher in men. The incidence rate projected for 2022-2024 was 972.77/10(5) inhabitants in total, and 846.74/10(5) and 1114.42/10(5), respectively, in women and men. This is the first study in Portugal to estimate diabetes incidence rate projections. The disturbing reported projections seem realistic if things continue as in the past. Actually, effective public health policies will need to be undertaken to minimize this alarming future scenario. Copyright © 2016 Primary Care Diabetes Europe. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. The Changing Face of School Psychology: Trends in Data and Projections for the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis, Michael J.; Grier, J. Elizabeth Chesno; Hunley, Sawyer A.

    2004-01-01

    Trends in data from the past to the present are described for demographic variables (gender, race and ethnicity, preparation levels, credentialing, age and experience) and ratio of students to school psychologists. School psychology in the United States will continue to be characterized as primarily Caucasian, specialist- level and female through…

  14. Employment and income trends and projections for forest-based sectors in the U.S

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karen L. Abt

    2013-01-01

    Key FindingsThe southern logging sector is expected to experience small increases in both industry output (3 percent) and jobs (2 percent) from 2008 to 2018. Increased demand from bioenergy is expected to counteract increasing trends toward mechanization and reduced demand from some traditional wood-using industries.Southern...

  15. Urban archetypes project: community case study: Halifax Regional Municipality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2009-07-01

    A comparative analysis of the energy consumption of typical households in four neighbourhoods in the Halifax regional municipality is presented. Representative household annual energy inputs and services are summarized in Sankey-style graphics. Depending on consumption in common house and apartment types within the study areas, energy costs ranged from $4,156 to $6,316 per year for the combined use of oil and electricity. Associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions ranged from 4.9 to 13.5 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) per year. Average annual household Vehicle Kilometres Travelled ranged from 13 500 to 41 400 km.

  16. Market trends in the U.S. ESCO industry: Results from the NAESCO database project; TOPICAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldman, Charles A.; Osborn, Julie G.; Hopper, Nicole C.; Singer, Terry E.

    2002-01-01

    The U.S. Energy Services Company (ESCO) industry is often cited as the most successful model for the private sector delivery of energy-efficiency services. This study documents actual performance of the ESCO industry in order to provide policymakers and investors with objective information and customers with a resource for benchmarking proposed projects relative to industry performance. We have assembled a database of nearly 1500 case studies of energy-efficiency projects-the most comprehensive data set of the U.S. ESCO industry available. These projects include$2.55B of work completed by 51 ESCOs and span much of the history of this industry. We estimate that the ESCO industry completed$1.8-2.1B of projects in 2000. The industry has grown rapidly over the last decade with revenues increasing at a 24% annualized rate. We summarize and compare project characteristics and costs and analyze energy savings, including the relationship between predicted and actual savings. ESCOs typically invested about$2.30/ft(sup 2) per project in various energy efficiency improvements, although there is large variation in project costs within and across market segments. We find that lighting-only projects report median electricity savings of 47% of targeted equipment consumption; the median for lighting- and -non-lighting projects is 23% of the total electric bill baseline. We examine project economics, including project net benefits, benefit/cost ratio and simple payback time. Median simple payback time is seven years for institutional sector projects and three years in the private sector. We estimate direct economic benefits of$1.62 billion for the 1080 projects in our database with both cost and savings data. The median benefit/cost ratio is 2.1 for 309 private sector projects and 1.6 for 771 institutional sector projects. We discuss the role of policies and programs adopted by state/federal legislatures and agencies that have played an important role in stimulating ESCO activity

  17. Market trends in the U.S. ESCO industry: Results from the NAESCO database project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goldman, Charles A.; Osborn, Julie G.; Hopper, Nicole C.; Singer, Terry E.

    2002-05-01

    The U.S. Energy Services Company (ESCO) industry is often cited as the most successful model for the private sector delivery of energy-efficiency services. This study documents actual performance of the ESCO industry in order to provide policymakers and investors with objective information and customers with a resource for benchmarking proposed projects relative to industry performance. We have assembled a database of nearly 1500 case studies of energy-efficiency projects-the most comprehensive data set of the U.S. ESCO industry available. These projects include $2.55B of work completed by 51 ESCOs and span much of the history of this industry. We estimate that the ESCO industry completed $1.8-2.1B of projects in 2000. The industry has grown rapidly over the last decade with revenues increasing at a 24% annualized rate. We summarize and compare project characteristics and costs and analyze energy savings, including the relationship between predicted and actual savings. ESCOs typically invested about $2.30/ft{sup 2} per project in various energy efficiency improvements, although there is large variation in project costs within and across market segments. We find that lighting-only projects report median electricity savings of 47% of targeted equipment consumption; the median for lighting-&-non-lighting projects is 23% of the total electric bill baseline. We examine project economics, including project net benefits, benefit/cost ratio and simple payback time. Median simple payback time is seven years for institutional sector projects and three years in the private sector. We estimate direct economic benefits of $1.62 billion for the 1080 projects in our database with both cost and savings data. The median benefit/cost ratio is 2.1 for 309 private sector projects and 1.6 for 771 institutional sector projects. We discuss the role of policies and programs adopted by state/federal legislatures and agencies that have played an important role in stimulating ESCO activity

  18. Trend and change point analyses of annual precipitation in the Souss-Massa Region in Morocco during 1932-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abahous, H.; Ronchail, J.; Sifeddine, A.; Kenny, L.; Bouchaou, L.

    2017-11-01

    In the context of an arid area such as Souss Massa Region, the availability of time series analysis of observed local data is vital to better characterize the regional rainfall configuration. In this paper, dataset of monthly precipitation collected from different local meteorological stations during 1932-2010, are quality controlled and analyzed to detect trend and change points. The temporal distribution of outliers shows an annual cycle and a decrease of their number since the 1980s. The results of the standard normal homogeneity test, penalized maximal t test, and Mann-Whitney-Pettit test show that 42% of the series are homogeneous. The analysis of annual precipitation in the region of Souss Massa during 1932-2010 shows wet conditions with a maximum between 1963 and 1965 followed by a decrease since 1973. The latter is identified as a statistically significant regional change point in Western High Atlas and Anti Atlas Mountains highlighting a decline in long-term average precipitation.

  19. Abortion incidence between 1990 and 2014: global, regional, and subregional levels and trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sedgh, Gilda; Bearak, Jonathan; Singh, Susheela; Bankole, Akinrinola; Popinchalk, Anna; Ganatra, Bela; Rossier, Clémentine; Gerdts, Caitlin; Tunçalp, Özge; Johnson, Brooke Ronald; Johnston, Heidi Bart; Alkema, Leontine

    2017-01-01

    Summary Background Information about the incidence of induced abortion is needed to motivate and inform efforts to help women avoid unintended pregnancies and to monitor progress toward that end. We estimate subregional, regional, and global levels and trends in abortion incidence for 1990 to 2014, and abortion rates in subgroups of women. We use the results to estimate the proportion of pregnancies that end in abortion and examine whether abortion rates vary in countries grouped by the legal status of abortion. Methods We requested abortion data from government agencies and compiled data from international sources and nationally representative studies. With data for 1069 country-years, we estimated incidence using a Bayesian hierarchical time series model whereby the overall abortion rate is a function of the modelled rates in subgroups of women of reproductive age defined by their marital status and contraceptive need and use, and the sizes of these subgroups. Findings We estimated that 35 abortions (90% uncertainty interval [UI] 33 to 44) occurred annually per 1000 women aged 15–44 years worldwide in 2010–14, which was 5 points less than 40 (39–48) in 1990–94 (90% UI for decline −11 to 0). Because of population growth, the annual number of abortions worldwide increased by 5·9 million (90% UI −1·3 to 15·4), from 50·4 million in 1990–94 (48·6 to 59·9) to 56·3 million (52·4 to 70·0) in 2010–14. In the developed world, the abortion rate declined 19 points (–26 to −14), from 46 (41 to 59) to 27 (24 to 37). In the developing world, we found a non-significant 2 point decline (90% UI −9 to 4) in the rate from 39 (37 to 47) to 37 (34 to 46). Some 25% (90% UI 23 to 29) of pregnancies ended in abortion in 2010–14. Globally, 73% (90% UI 59 to 82) of abortions were obtained by married women in 2010–14 compared with 27% (18 to 41) obtained by unmarried women. We did not observe an association between the abortion rates for 2010–14 and the

  20. Projected Regional Climate in 2025 Due to Urban Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, J. Marshall; Manyin, Michael; Messen, Dmitry

    2005-01-01

    By 2025, 60 to 80 percent of the world s population will live in urban environments. Additionally, the following facts published by the United Nations further illustrates how cities will evolve in the future. Urban areas in the developing world are growing very rapidly. The urban growth rate will continue to be particularly rapid in the urban areas of less developed regions, averaging 2.4 per cent per year during 2000-2030, consistent with a doubling time of 29 years. The urbanization process will continue worldwide. The concentration of population in cities is expected to continue so that, by 2030, 84 percent of the inhabitants of more developed countries will be urban dwellers. Urbanization impacts the whole hierarchy of human settlements. In 2000,24.8 per cent of the world population lived in urban settlements with fewer than 500,000 inhabitants and by 2015 that proportion will likely rise to 27.1 per cent.

  1. Regional climate change impacts on agricultural crop production in Central and Eastern Europe – hotspots, regional differences and common trends

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Eitzinger, Josef; Trnka, Miroslav; Semerádová, Daniela; Thaler, S.; Svobodová, Eva; Hlavinka, P.; Šiška, B.; Takáč, J.; Malatinská, L.; Nováková, M.; Dubrovský, Martin; Žalud, Zdeněk

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 151, č. 6 (2013), s. 787-812 ISSN 0021-8596 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.4.31.0056 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : water-use efficiency * winter-wheat * change scenarios * elevated co2 * soil workability * atmospheric co2 * atmospheric co2 * yield * variability * model Subject RIV: GC - Agronomy Impact factor: 2.891, year: 2013

  2. Large-scale projects between regional planning and environmental protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmidt, G.

    1984-01-01

    The first part of the work discusses the current law of land-use planning, municipal and technical construction planning, and licensing under the atomic energy law and the federal law on immission protection. In the second part some theses suggesting modifications are submitted. In the sector of land-use planning substantial contributions to the protection of the environment can only be expected from programs and plans (aims). For the environmental conflicts likely to arise from large-scale projects (nuclear power plant, fossil-fuel power plant) this holds good for the most part of site selection plans. They have bearings on environmental protection in that they presuppose thorough examination of facts, help to recognize possible conflicts at an early date and provide a frame for solving those problems. Municipal construction planning is guided by the following principles: Environmental protection is an equivalent planning target. Environmental data and facts and their methodical processing play a fundamental part as they constitute the basis of evaluation. Under the rules and regulations of the federal law on immission protection, section 5, number 2 - prevention of nuisances - operators are obliged to take preventive care of risks. That section is not concerned with planning or distribution. Neither does the licensing of nuclear plants have planning character. So far as the legal preconditions of licensing are fulfilled, the scope for rejection of an application under section 7, subsection 2 of the atomic energy law in view of site selection and requirement of a plant hardly carries any practical weight. (orig./HP) [de

  3. Wood chips procurement and research project at the Mikkeli region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saksa, T.; Auvinen, P.

    1996-01-01

    In 1993-94, a large-scale energywood production chain started as a co-operation project by the Mikkeli city forest office and local forestry societies. In 1995 over 115 000 m 3 (about 85 000 MWh of energy) of wood chips were delivered to Pursiala heat and power plant in Mikkeli. About 75 % of these chips was forest processed chips. About 70 % of the forest processed chips was whole tree chips from improvement cuttings of young forest stands and the rest was logging waste chips from regeneration cutting areas. The average total delivery costs of forest processed chips after reduction of energywood and other subsidies were approximately 45 FIM/m 3 (60 FIM/MWh) for the whole tree chips and 38 FIM/m 3 (50 FIM/MWh) for logging waste chips. The delivery costs of forest processed chips could meet the target of Bioenergy Research Programme (45 FIM/MWh) only in the most favourable cases. In an average the delivery costs were about 9 FIM/MWh more than the price obtained when sold to the heat and power plant. However the wood chip production created 27 new jobs and the increase of income to the local economy was about 2.2 milj. FIM /year. The local communities got new tax revenue about 3 FIM/MWh. The gain for the forestry was approximated to be 5 - 6 FIM/MWh. The resources of forest processed chips were studied on the basis of stand measurements. According to the study the most remarkable energywood resources were in young thinning stands on Oxalis-Myrtillus and Myrtillus forest site types. On Oxalis-Myrtillus type almost every and on Myrtillus type every second stand included energywood more than 40 m 3 /ha

  4. Historical and projected trends in temperature and precipitation extremes in Australia in observations and CMIP5

    OpenAIRE

    Alexander, Lisa V.; Arblaster, Julie M.

    2017-01-01

    This study expands previous work on climate extremes in Australia by investigating the simulation of a large number of extremes indices in the CMIP5 multi-model dataset and comparing them to multiple observational datasets over a century of observed data using consistent methods. We calculate 24 indices representing extremes of temperature and precipitation from 1911 to 2010 over Australia and show that there have been significant observed trends in temperature extremes associated with warmin...

  5. Assessing U.S. ESCO industry performance and market trends: Results from the NAESCO database project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Osborn, Julie; Goldman, Chuck; Hopper, Nicole; Singer, Terry

    2002-01-01

    The U.S. Energy Services Company (ESCO) industry is often cited as the most successful model for the private sector delivery of energy-efficiency services. This study documents actual performance of the ESCO industry in order to provide policymakers and investors with objective informative and customers with a resource for benchmarking proposed projects relative to industry performance. We have assembled a database of nearly 1500 case studies of energy-efficiency projects - the most comprehensive data set of the U.S. ESCO industry available. These projects include$2.55B of work completed by 51 ESCOs and span much of the history of this industry

  6. Revitalisation of Orlík reservoir – case study of a regional restoration project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivana Očásková

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This case study describes the bottom-up formation of a regional project for restoring a reservoir. Land use changes in the upper Vltava river basin caused the eutrophication of Orlík reservoir, which resulted in water blooms, which in association with socio-economic changes caused a decline in tourism in this region and serious difficulties for local people. The study examines how public awareness helped in the establishment of a restoration project, its framework and strategy. Regional governance of the project management took into consideration both knowledge-based solutions and the interests of local people and municipalities. The project has the potential for resolving both environmental and socio-economic problems and providing a sustainable win-win strategy for the region, residents, tourists and stakeholders.

  7. USE OF TREND IMPACT ANALYSIS AFFECTS PROJECTIONS OF EUCALYPTUS CULTIVATION IN BRAZIL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samir Lotfi

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Eucalyptus forestry is an important source of competitive advantage for Brazil and, since eucalyptus is a basic raw material for industrial segments that are undergoing great expansion, monitoring the growth rate of cultivated area is increasingly relevant.This study resorted to Trend Impact Analysis (TIA to forecast the planting of eucalyptus in Brazil’s reforested areas, adjusting the linear regression of historical data in the light of three events that were under way or that will probably influence the trend: timber funds, the world financial crisis and Biomass to Liquid (BTL technology.The results allow one to infer that, in the short term, eucalyptus cultivation will expand at a rate similar to that of the linear curve, adversely affected by the world crisis and positively affected by timber funds.By 2016, however, the expansion of eucalyptus plantations is expected, largely because of the commercial scale of BTL technology.Key words: Trend Impact Analysis. Eucalyptus. Future Studies.

  8. The Growing Trend of Moderate Preterm Births: An Ecological Study in One Region of Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    de Oliveira, Rosana Rosseto; Melo, Emiliana Cristina; Falavina, Larissa Pereira; Mathias, Thais Aidar de Freitas

    2015-01-01

    Background Preterm birth is a serious public health problem, as it is linked to high rates of neonatal and child morbidity and mortality, with Brazil listed among the countries with the ten highest numbers of premature births. Nonetheless, knowledge is scarce regarding prematurity and associated factors in mid-sized cities. The objective of this study was to analyze the trend of preterm births and associated factors in a municipality located in the state of Paran?, Brazil. Methods This was an...

  9. Regional Distribution Shifts Help Explain Local Changes in Wintering Raptor Abundance: Implications for Interpreting Population Trends

    OpenAIRE

    Paprocki, Neil; Heath, Julie A.; Novak, Stephen J.

    2014-01-01

    Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a ...

  10. Regional Development and Management of Sunk Capital: Some Issues in Project Evaluation

    OpenAIRE

    Gyles, Oliver

    1995-01-01

    Government intervention aimed at regional development can be justified where there are opportunities for profitable investement of public funds. Benefit: cost analysis can be an effective tool for economic evaluation of regional development project proposals, providcd the distinction between sunk costs and historical outlays is recognised. Because the cost of previous development is sunk, it is appropriate to value existing assets at their opportunity cost. In terms or ex ante project apprais...

  11. Emerging Trends of the Owner-Contractor Relationship for Capital Facility Projects: From the Contractor Perspective

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Geertsema, Cameron

    2003-01-01

    .... Specifically, this document will focus on how the outcome of capital facility projects are affected by human resources practices, and the management principles and practices of the contractor-owner...

  12. Seasonal variation and trend of chicken pox in the southern region of Saudi Arabia (2007-2012).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saleh, Noha; Al Moghazy, Bassem

    2014-12-01

    Chicken pox is a contagious disease caused by varicella zoster virus. Children are most susceptible to infection. In 1998, the WHO recommended that routine childhood varicella vaccination be considered in countries where the disease is a relatively important public health concern. There are few data on the trends of chicken pox. We aimed to evaluate the trend of chicken pox in Saudi Arabia (KSA) during the period 2007-2012. Data were collected by retrospective review of the existing anonymous surveillance records and book registries of chicken pox cases at the preventive medicine department of Armed Forces Hospital of the Southern Region of Saudi Arabia from 2007 to 2012. The collected data included the number, age, and sex of registered cases. A seasonal pattern was clearly demonstrated, with peak in March and April. There was also a decreasing trend from 2007 to 2012. Most cases occurred in the age group 4-15 years. The number of infected male patients was a little higher compared with female patients. These results indicate success in controlling the disease in the southern region of Saudi Arabia, which may be attributed to the implementation of public health interventions targeted at reducing infectious diseases (such as the introduction of varicella zoster vaccine in 2008). We recommend that a future study be conducted on the severity of chicken pox infection in adults (hospitalization, complications, and death) and a national survey among adults for the seroprevalence of markers of infection with varicella zoster.

  13. Increased wetness confounds Landsat-derived NDVI trends in the central Alaska North Slope region, 1985-2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raynolds, Martha K.; Walker, Donald A.

    2016-08-01

    Satellite data from the circumpolar Arctic have shown increases in vegetation indices correlated to warming air temperatures (e.g. Bhatt et al 2013 Remote Sensing 5 4229-54). However, more information is needed at finer scales to relate the satellite trends to vegetation changes on the ground. We examined changes using Landsat TM and ETM+ data between 1985 and 2011 in the central Alaska North Slope region, where the vegetation and landscapes are relatively well-known and mapped. We calculated trends in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and tasseled-cap transformation indices, and related them to high-resolution aerial photographs, ground studies, and vegetation maps. Significant, mostly negative, changes in NDVI occurred in 7.3% of the area, with greater change in aquatic and barren types. Large reflectance changes due to erosion, deposition and lake drainage were evident. Oil industry-related changes such as construction of artificial islands, roads, and gravel pads were also easily identified. Regional trends showed decreases in NDVI for most vegetation types, but increases in tasseled-cap greenness (56% of study area, greatest for vegetation types with high shrub cover) and tasseled-cap wetness (11% of area), consistent with documented degradation of polygon ice wedges, indicating that increasing cover of water may be masking increases in vegetation when summarized using the water-sensitive NDVI.

  14. Balancing energy, development and climate priorities in India. Current trends and future projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shukla, P.R.; Garg, A.; Dhar, S.; Halsnaes, K.

    2007-09-01

    This report gives a short introduction to the project: Projecting future energy demand: Balancing development, energy and climate priorities in large developing countries. Furthermore, the report analyses Indian energy, development and climate change, followed by an assessment of cross-country results that gives a range of key indicators of the relationship between economic growth, energy, and local and global pollutants. The focus is on the energy sector policies that mainstream climate interests within development choices. (BA)

  15. Sustainable manure management in the Baltic Sea Region - results, cases and project recommendations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tybirk, Knud; Luostarinen, S; Hamelin, Lorie

    This magazine contains the major results, conclusions and recommendations of the project Baltic Forum for Innovative Technologies for Sustainable Manure Management (Baltic Manure) which via co-funding from Interreg Baltic Sea Region programme has been a Flagship project in the EU Strategy...

  16. Project scoping for lessons learnt to apply to the Celtic Seas marine sub-region

    OpenAIRE

    Twomey, Sarah; O'Mahony, Cathal

    2013-01-01

    This report involves a formal scoping exercise to identify lessons from a wide range of previous and current project and initiative experiences at the national, regional seas, European and global levels. An inventory of 77 projects and initiatives that are relevant with regard to the key activities proposed by the Celtic Seas Partnership has been compiled, as well as a short-list of 23 of the most pertinent projects, lessons learnt and contact names. This report has identified a number of syn...

  17. Isotopic source signatures: Impact of regional variability on the δ13CH4 trend and spatial distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feinberg, Aryeh I.; Coulon, Ancelin; Stenke, Andrea; Schwietzke, Stefan; Peter, Thomas

    2018-02-01

    The atmospheric methane growth rate has fluctuated over the past three decades, signifying variations in methane sources and sinks. Methane isotopic ratios (δ13CH4) differ between emission categories, and can therefore be used to distinguish which methane sources have changed. However, isotopic modelling studies have mainly focused on uncertainties in methane emissions rather than uncertainties in isotopic source signatures. We simulated atmospheric δ13CH4 for the period 1990-2010 using the global chemistry-climate model SOCOL. Empirically-derived regional variability in the isotopic signatures was introduced in a suite of sensitivity simulations. These simulations were compared to a baseline simulation with commonly used global mean isotopic signatures. We investigated coal, natural gas/oil, wetland, livestock, and biomass burning source signatures to determine whether regional variations impact the observed isotopic trend and spatial distribution. Based on recently published source signature datasets, our calculated global mean isotopic signatures are in general lighter than the commonly used values. Trends in several isotopic signatures were also apparent during the period 1990-2010. Tropical livestock emissions grew during the 2000s, introducing isotopically heavier livestock emissions since tropical livestock consume more C4 vegetation than midlatitude livestock. Chinese coal emissions, which are isotopically heavy compared to other coals, increase during the 2000s leading to higher global values of δ13CH4 for coal emissions. EDGAR v4.2 emissions disagree with the observed atmospheric isotopic trend for almost all simulations, confirming past doubts about this emissions inventory. The agreement between the modelled and observed δ13CH4 interhemispheric differences improves when regional source signatures are used. Even though the simulated results are highly dependent on the choice of methane emission inventories, they emphasize that the commonly used

  18. Bi-decadal groundwater level trends in a semi-arid south indian region: Declines, causes and management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajendra P. Sishodia

    2016-12-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: Contrary to common perception of widespread groundwater declines only 22–36% of the wells showed statistically significant declines. The use of well depth during dry well periods may slightly underestimate the number of declining wells (by 1% and rate of decline. Increase in groundwater irrigated area combined with rainfall and power subsidy policy, were the main causative factors for the decline. Groundwater decline after implementation of free-electricity policy in 2004 confirmed the nexus between power subsidy and groundwater. These declines are likely to worsen due to future well drillings. Trends in other regions with similar hydro-geologic conditions need to be analyzed to verify groundwater declines and its linkages with power subsidy. Once established, reforms in power subsidy and well permit policy along with conversion to efficient micro–irrigation may be needed to maintain or enhance groundwater availability in the crystalline aquifer region of India (240 million ha.

  19. The evaluation of the trends of Polish farms incomes in the FADN regions after the integration with the EU

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksander Grzelak

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The main aim of this article was to identify trends regarding income changes in the period of 2004-2008 in Poland between the regions of FADN. In 2004-2008 we noticed the processes of convergence in range of income situation of farms among the FADN regions. It was noticed that the convergence of beta type and the sigma were in place. This situation appears for general group of farms, as well as in farms with mixed production. Although, exclusion of the subsidies would initiate the divergence processes. This means that direct payments make up a kind of catalytic situation in range of levelling incomes situation in farms among these regions. We could initially signal that instruments of the CAP favour getting differences of incomes smaller in spatial range, what would indicate some kind of strategy in the aims of the EU policy with reference to sustainable growth in spatial range.

  20. Utility-Scale Solar 2015: An Empirical Analysis of Project Cost, Performance, and Pricing Trends in the United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bolinger, Mark [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Environmental Energy Technologies Division; Seel, Joachim [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Environmental Energy Technologies Division

    2016-08-17

    The utility-scale solar sector—defined here to include any ground-mounted photovoltaic (“PV”), concentrating photovoltaic (“CPV”), or concentrating solar power (“CSP”) project that is larger than 5 MWAC in capacity—has led the overall U.S. solar market in terms of installed capacity since 2012. It is expected to maintain its market-leading position for at least another five years, driven in part by December 2015’s three-year extension of the 30% federal investment tax credit (“ITC”) through 2019 (coupled with a favorable switch to a “start construction” rather than a “placed in service” eligibility requirement, and a gradual phase down of the credit to 10% by 2022). In fact, in 2016 alone, the utility-scale sector is projected to install more than twice as much new capacity as it ever has previously in a single year. This unprecedented boom makes it difficult, yet more important than ever, to stay abreast of the latest utility-scale market developments and trends. This report—the fourth edition in an ongoing annual series—is intended to help meet this need, by providing in-depth, annually updated, data-driven analysis of the utility-scale solar project fleet in the United States. Drawing on empirical project-level data from a wide range of sources, this report analyzes not just installed project costs or prices—i.e., the traditional realm of most solar economic analyses—but also operating costs, capacity factors, and power purchase agreement (“PPA”) prices from a large sample of utility-scale solar projects throughout the United States. Given its current dominance in the market, utility-scale PV also dominates much of this report, though data from CPV and CSP projects are also presented where appropriate.

  1. Political and security issues in the Asia-Pacific region: Assessment of trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Donowaki, Mitsuro

    1992-01-01

    Within the attitude of Japan concerning its policy for peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region the the need for dialogue and cooperation was underlined specifying the importance of economic cooperation, diplomatic efforts to solve the political problems and the presence of United States in the region. Particular emphasis was put on the relations with China and Russia

  2. Direct medical costs of hospitalizations for cardiovascular diseases in Shanghai, China: trends and projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shengnan; Petzold, Max; Cao, Junshan; Zhang, Yue; Wang, Weibing

    2015-05-01

    Few studies in China have focused on direct expenditures for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), making cost trends for CVDs uncertain. Epidemic modeling and forecasting may be essential for health workers and policy makers to reduce the cost burden of CVDs.To develop a time series model using Box-Jenkins methodology for a 15-year forecasting of CVD hospitalization costs in Shanghai.Daily visits and medical expenditures for CVD hospitalizations between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2012 were analyzed. Data from 2012 were used for further analyses, including yearly total health expenditures and expenditures per visit for each disease, as well as per-visit-per-year medical costs of each service for CVD hospitalizations. Time series analyses were performed to determine the long-time trend of total direct medical expenditures for CVDs and specific expenditures for each disease, which were used to forecast expenditures until December 31, 2030.From 2008 to 2012, there were increased yearly trends for both hospitalizations (from 250,354 to 322,676) and total costs (from US $ 388.52 to 721.58 million per year in 2014 currency) in Shanghai. Cost per CVD hospitalization in 2012 averaged US $ 2236.29, with the highest being for chronic rheumatic heart diseases (US $ 4710.78). Most direct medical costs were spent on medication. By the end of 2030, the average cost per visit per month for all CVDs was estimated to be US $ 4042.68 (95% CI: US $ 3795.04-4290.31) for all CVDs, and the total health expenditure for CVDs would reach over US $1.12 billion (95% CI: US $ 1.05-1.19 billion) without additional government interventions.Total health expenditures for CVDs in Shanghai are estimated to be higher in the future. These results should be a valuable future resource for both researchers on the economic effects of CVDs and for policy makers.

  3. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS AND TRENDS OF DRY DAYS IN SYLHET REGION OF BANGLADESH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syed Mustakim Ali Shah

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The rainfall distribution in Bangladesh is not uniform and refl ecting topography. Hilly Sylhet region receives substantial rainfall every year compare to other regions of Bangladesh. Though Sylhet region is less vulnerable to drought but weather pattern is not constant and changing day by day. Hence as a part of drought an alysis, behavior of dry days is important. This study focuses on dry days pattern and associ ated changes from daily records of last 54 years for Sylhet region. Monthly, yearly and seasonal variations of dry days were analyzed to check for major changes. In order to inve stigate extreme dry events, time history of monthly dry days data were transformed into fre quency domain using the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT. Variability of dry days in tim e scale was also checked from filtered signals which is very useful for drought a nalysis, agricultural development and disaster management for the north-east region of Bangladesh.

  4. National, regional, and worldwide estimates of stillbirth rates in 2015, with trends from 2000

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blencowe, Hannah; Cousens, Simon; Jassir, Fiorella Bianchi

    2016-01-01

    ) met the inclusion criteria, a 90% increase from 2009 estimates. The estimated average global SBR in 2015 was 18·4 per 1000 births, down from 24·7 in 2000 (25·5% reduction). In 2015, an estimated 2·6 million (uncertainty range 2·4-3·0 million) babies were stillborn, giving a 19% decline in numbers...... estimate SBRs and numbers for 195 countries, including trends from 2000 to 2015. METHODS: We collated SBR data meeting prespecified inclusion criteria from national routine or registration systems, nationally representative surveys, and other data sources identified through a systematic review, web...

  5. The Analysis and Evaluation of Trends in the Socio-Economic Development of European Union Countries and their Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaroshenko Igor V.

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The modern development of Ukraine and its regions on the background of the ongoing European integration process requires a detailed study of the experience of forming the European regional policy, positive examples and trends that have contributed to economic growth of the territories and improvement of population welfare of EU countries with a view to their use in forming the own national policy in the country. The EU regional policy, which is called the “unification” policy, as part of the European structural policy is aimed at solving development problems of the territories, primarily, depressive, old industrial, underdeveloped ones reducing the existing imbalances in social and economic development of the regions and preventing the emergence of inter-regional imbalances in the European Union. Studies of the uneven development of a country’s territories are an important part of its government policy. Identification of the main features of the asymmetry makes it possible not only to reveal the current situation with imbalances in the regional potential for sustainable development but also to assess the government’s actions aimed at their elimination. For Ukraine, which sets a goal to integrate into the European community, a detailed study of the experience and analysis of the priority principles of EU countries’ regional policy are very feasible in the formation and implementation of its own regional policy with regard to the best European principles of organization of managing the regional and local development and local government reform. Using the best practices of the regional policy of EU countries in Central and Eastern Europe, which show stable positive change in the socio-economic development, can appear to be of a special value

  6. Future extreme events in European climate: An exploration of regional climate model projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beniston, M.; Stephenson, D.B.; Christensen, O.B.

    2007-01-01

    -90) and future (2071-2 100) climate on the basis of regional climate model simulations produced by the PRUDENCE project. A summary of the main results follows. Heat waves - Regional surface warming causes the frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves to increase over Europe. By the end of the twenty first...

  7. Regional analysis of S emission-deposition trends in North America from 1979 through 1988

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shannon, J.D.

    1991-01-01

    Variations in SO x emissions weighted by a regional deposition model are shown to account for most of the variance in regionally averaged annual wet deposition (WD) and precipitation-weighted concentrations (PWCs) of sulfate in the United States and Canada during the period 1979--1988. Total emissions decreased about 15% during that time. For all sites combined, weighted emissions accounted for about two-thirds of the variance, with slightly better performance for PWC than for WD. Restricting the emission regions to the states containing the monitoring sites in each region led to very mixed results, with good explanation of WD and PWC variance in the Midwest and in all sites combined but generally poor explanation elsewhere, particularly for WD. In some regions, local emission densities are quite low, and most deposition would be expected to result from outside sources, so no strong relationship between local emission rates and deposition would be expected. Including annual meteorological variability in the emission weighting improved variance explanation in several of the peripheral regions, but reduced variance explanation elsewhere, particularly in the Midwest, the region of the highest emission density. 10 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab

  8. Improvement of tool support of the spatial approach to regional planning: problems, specifics, trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nataliya Gennadievna Yushkova

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The emerging imperatives of innovation economic development in Russia determine the content of conceptual and institutional constraints to the development of regional economic systems (RES. They consider the regional planning system as a leading priority in its inseparable unity with modern public administration tasks. However, the practice of development of long-term plans in the RF subjects proves that the innovation challenges of economic policy are not reflected properly in them or they are significantly distorted. The following reasons reduce the effectiveness of modernization processes in the RF subjects and hamper the appropriate reaction of RES on their impact: the lack of coordination between socio-economic and spatial regional plans, the imbalance of interaction between state authorities engaged in long-term planning, the lack of real prerequisites for the implementation of innovation initiatives in the regions. Systematization and analysis of long-term plans make it possible to substantiate the consistency of the spatial approach to regional planning expressed in the dominance of the transformational function that synchronizes the configuration and parameters of RES, and to establish ways to integrate spatial components in the system of regional planning through optimization of its tool support. The change in the content of the instrumentation support is based on the synthesis of the predominant basic characteristics of the existing tools used in isolated subsystems of regional planning of socio-economic and territorial development. The study has established a system of tool support for regional planning that adapts to the changes in both internal and external factors in the development of RES. Three main groups of tools: organizing, regulating, and coordinating are defined by their typing in accordance with the groups of management functions. The article proposes the modeling of combinations of tools that are subordinated to the

  9. Observed and simulated impacts of the summer NAO in Europe: implications for projected drying in the Mediterranean region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blade, Ileana; Fortuny, Didac [Universitat de Barcelona, Facultat de Fisica, Departament d' Astronomia i Meteorologia, Barcelona (Spain); Liebmann, Brant [CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO (United States); Oldenborgh, Geert Jan van [Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute, De Bilt (Netherlands)

    2012-08-15

    Climate models predict substantial summer precipitation reductions in Europe and the Mediterranean region in the twenty-first century, but the extent to which these models correctly represent the mechanisms of summertime precipitation in this region is uncertain. Here an analysis is conducted to compare the observed and simulated impacts of the dominant large-scale driver of summer rainfall variability in Europe and the Mediterranean, the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO). The SNAO is defined as the leading mode of July-August sea level pressure variability in the North Atlantic sector. Although the SNAO is weaker and confined to northern latitudes compared to its winter counterpart, with a southern lobe located over the UK, it significantly affects precipitation in the Mediterranean, particularly Italy and the Balkans (correlations of up to 0.6). During high SNAO summers, when strong anticyclonic conditions and suppressed precipitation prevail over the UK, the Mediterranean region instead is anomalously wet. This enhanced precipitation is related to the presence of a strong upper-level trough over the Balkans - part of a hemispheric pattern of anomalies that develops in association with the SNAO - that leads to mid-level cooling and increased potential instability. Neither this downstream extension nor the surface influence of the SNAO is captured in the two CMIP3 models examined (HadCM3 and GFDL-CM2.1), with weak or non-existent correlations between the SNAO and Mediterranean precipitation. Because these models also predict a strong upward SNAO trend in the future, the error in their representation of the SNAO surface signature impacts the projected precipitation trends. In particular, the attendant increase in precipitation that, based on observations, should occur in the Mediterranean and offset some of the non-SNAO related drying does not occur. Furthermore, the fact that neither the observed SNAO nor summer precipitation in Europe/Mediterranean region

  10. CURRENT TRENDS AND PROBLEMS OF DEVELOPMENT OF YOUTH TRAVEL IN RUSSIA ON THE EXAMPLE OF KRASNODAR REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daria V. Sidorova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available To consider tendencies and problems of development of youth travel in Russia in general and in Krasnodar region in particular, and also possible solutions of the revealed problems. Methods. The comparative and geographical method, statistical processing, population poll were applied. Results. Data on current trends of development of youth travel in Russia and in Krasnodar region are submitted and factors, constraining his full development are revealed. The description of the actions directed to promoting of this type of tourism in Krasnodar region is given. Recommendations about the solution of the problems existing in the sphere of youth travel of Krasnodar region are provided. Conclusions. In the modern world more and more popular is a youth travel. His popularity is caused by such qualities of youth as activity, aspiration to training and knowledge, the need for new feelings. Relevance of a research of this type of tourism is caused by the increasing youth share in tourist streams, and also insufficiency of methodical developments of a problem of complex development of system of youth travel. Krasnodar region is the most perspective from the point of view of development of all types of tourism, including youth. The region has a unique environment, modern infrastructure, the developed tourist and recreational complex. At the same time during the research a number of the problems constraining development of this type of tourism is revealed.

  11. Political and security issues in the Asia-Pacific region: Assessment of trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lehmann, R.F. II

    1992-01-01

    It should be emphasized that the fundamental shift has taken place in international relations, away from a world dominated by the bipolar super-Power confrontation. There is a today to be more concerned about regional instabilities, which are made more threatening by the potential proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Just as every nation was affected by the cold war, regional instabilities and proliferation concern each member of the world community. In the Asia-Pacific region, the goal is clear: safer, more stable military postures; transparency and confidence-building; and stronger non-proliferation norms. In working together towards that goal, there is a need to foster greater security through bilateral and multilateral dialogue. In that way, one could promote the change within and among societies; that is the best hope for defusing regional tensions, preventing the spread of weapons of mass destruction, and building a lasting peace

  12. Demographic and social trends affecting intergenerational relations in the MENA region

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Meskoub (Mahmood)

    2013-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ This paper focuses on poverty in the MENA region and whether it can be alleviated by intergenerational support within and across households. Intergenerational relations are mediated through several institutions. The most prominent of these are households, state,

  13. Trends in the physical development indicators of 14-year-old adolescents in the Voronezh Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. P. Sitnikova

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the results of statistical (sigma and percentile analysis of height and weight in 434 boys and girls aged 14 years from the Voronezh Region in 2011 —2012. The girls' height was comparable with the regional indicators of physical development in the children of the Voronezh Region (1997—1999. The boys' height was characterized by a wide scatter of the obtained values; but there was an increase in the mean values as compared to the 1997—1999 data. Examinations of the boys and girls revealed a wide scatter in their weight with its increasing tendency. The performed examinations indicate the need for revision of the regional height and weight values for teenagers every ten years.

  14. Photovoltaic (PV) Pricing Trends: Historical, Recent, and Near-Term Projections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Feldman, D.; Barbose, G.; Margolis, R.; Wiser, R.; Darghouth, N.; Goodrich, A.

    2012-11-01

    This report helps to clarify the confusion surrounding different estimates of system pricing by distinguishing between past, current, and near-term projected estimates. It also discusses the different methodologies and factors that impact the estimated price of a PV system, such as system size, location, technology, and reporting methods.These factors, including timing, can have a significant impact on system pricing.

  15. Runoff Trends Analysis and Future Projections of Hydrological Patterns in Small Forested Catchments

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Lamačová, Anna; Hruška, Jakub; Krám, Pavel; Stuchlik, E.; Farda, Aleš; Chuman, T.; Fottová, Daniela

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 9, č. 4 (2014), s. 169-181 ISSN 1801-5395 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : climate change * flow pattern * headwater catchments * hydrological modelling Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 0.659, year: 2014

  16. MBA Program Trends and Best Practices in Teaching Sustainability: Live Project Courses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sroufe, Robert; Ramos, Diane

    2011-01-01

    This study offers a model for incorporating live sustainability consulting projects in an MBA curriculum to nurture cross-functional faculty collaboration while offering students proving ground for solving contemporary challenges related to ethical management of all forms of capital. We attempt to first lay a foundation for the recent evolution of…

  17. Projecting trends in plant invasions in Europe under different scenarios of future land-use change

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Chytrý, M.; Wild, Jan; Pyšek, Petr; Jarošík, Vojtěch; Dendoncker, N.; Reginster, I.; Pino, J.; Maskell, L. C.; Vila, M.; Pergl, Jan; Kühn, I.; Spangenberg, J.H.; Settele, J.

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 21, č. 1 (2012), s. 75-87 ISSN 1466-822X R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC06073 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60050516 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : plant invasions * land-use change * prediction Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 7.223, year: 2012

  18. METHODOLOGY FOR PROJECTION OF OCCUPATIONAL TRENDS IN THE DENVER STANDARD METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    FISHMAN, LESLIE; AND OTHERS

    THE FINAL STAGE OF A PROGRAM FOR ACHIEVING A BALANCE BETWEEN THE AGGREGATE SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR LABOR IS THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES INTO OCCUPATIONAL REQUIREMENTS BASED ON PROJECTIONS OF OCCUPATIONAL PATTERNS BY INDUSTRY. THIS CAN BE USED TO EVALUATE POTENTIAL AREAS OF SUBSTANTIAL SURPLUS OR SHORTAGE, AND PROVIDE THE…

  19. A model technical cooperation project on the marine radioactivity assessment in the Black Sea Region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goektepe, B. G.; Koeksal, G.; Osvath, I.; Koese, A.; Kuecuekcezzar, R.; Varinlioglu, A.; Guengoer, E.

    2002-01-01

    Marine Environmental Assessment of the Black Sea Region is a wide scope Regional Technical Co-operation Project coded as RER/2/003 implemented by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in the period 1995-2001.This multidisciplinay project was designed in response to the needs of participating Member States - the six Black Sea coastal countries (Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine, Russian Federation, Georgia and Turkey)- to establish capabilities for reliably assessing radionuclides in the Black Sea environment and applying tracer techniques to marine pollution studies. The IAEA assisted laboratories in the region by providing expert services, training, equipment and materials (Goektepe et al., 1998; Osvath et al., 1997-2000)

  20. Regional trends in the take-up of clean coal technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wootten, J.M. [Peabody Holding Co., Inc., St. Louis, MO (United States)

    1997-12-31

    Using surveys of the electricity industry taken in major OECD coal producing/coal consuming regions of North America, Europe, Southern Africa, and Asia/Pacific, this paper reports on the attitudes of power plant operators and developers toward clean coal technologies, the barriers to their use and the policies and measures that might be implemented, if a country or region desired to encourage greater use of clean coal technologies.

  1. Response of surface water chemistry to reduced levels of acid precipitation: Comparison of trends in two regions of New York, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Douglas A.; McHale, M.R.; Driscoll, C.T.; Roy, K.M.

    2006-01-01

    In light of recent reductions in sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) emissions mandated by Title IV of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, temporal trends and trend coherence in precipitation (1984-2001 and 1992-2001) and surface water chemistry (1992-2001) were determined in two of the most acid-sensitive regions of North America, i.e. the Catskill and Adirondack Mountains of New York. Precipitation chemistry data from six sites located near these regions showed decreasing sulphate (SO42-), nitrate (NO3-), and base cation (CB) concentrations and increasing pH during 1984-2001, but few significant trends during 1992-2001. Data from five Catskill streams and 12 Adirondack lakes showed decreasing trends in SO42- concentrations at all sites, and decreasing trends in NO3-, CB, and H+ concentrations and increasing trends in dissolved organic carbon at most sites. In contrast, acid-neutralizing capacity (ANC increased significantly at only about half the Adirondack lakes and in one of the Catskill streams. Flow correction prior to trend analysis did not change any trend directions and had little effect on SO42- trends, but it caused several significant non-flow-corrected trends in NO3- and ANC to become non-significant, suggesting that trend results for flow-sensitive constituents are affected by flow-related climate variation. SO42- concentrations showed high temporal coherence in precipitation, surface waters, and in precipitation-surface water comparisons, reflecting a strong link between S emissions, precipitation SO42- concentrations, and the processes that affect S cycling within these regions. NO3- and H+ concentrations and ANC generally showed weak coherence, especially in surface waters and in precipitation-surface water comparisons, indicating that variation in local-scale processes driven by factors such as climate are affecting trends in acid-base chemistry in these two regions. Copyright ?? 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. Near-surface wind pattern in regional climate projections over the broader Adriatic region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belušić, Andreina; Telišman Prtenjak, Maja; Güttler, Ivan; Ban, Nikolina; Leutwyler, David; Schär, Christoph

    2017-04-01

    The Adriatic region is characterized by the complex coastline, strong topographic gradients and specific wind regimes. This represents excellent test area for the latest generation of the regional climate models (RCMs) applied over the European domain. The most famous wind along the Adriatic coast is bora, which due to its strength, has a strong impact on all types of human activities in the Adriatic region. The typical bora wind is a severe gusty downslope flow perpendicular to the mountains. Besides bora, in the Adriatic region, typical winds are sirocco (mostly during the wintertime) and sea/land breezes (dominantly in the warm part of the year) as a part of the regional Mediterranean wind system. Thus, it is substantial to determine future changes in the wind filed characteristics (e.g., changes in strength and frequencies). The first step was the evaluation of a suite of ten EURO- and MED-CORDEX models (at 50 km and 12.5 km resolution), and two additional high resolution models from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zürich (ETHZ, at 12.5 km and 2.2. km resolution) in the present climate. These results provided a basis for the next step where wind field features, in an ensemble of RCMs forced by global climate models (GCMs) in historical and future runs are examined. Our aim is to determine the influence of the particular combination of RCMs and GCMs, horizontal resolution and emission scenario on the future changes in the near-surface wind field. The analysis reveals strong sensitivity of the simulated wind flow and its statistics to both season and location analyzed, to the horizontal resolution of the RCM and on the choice of the particular GCM that provides boundary conditions.

  3. A 21-Year Record of Arctic Sea Ice Extents and Their Regional, Seasonal, and Monthly Variability and Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkinson, Claire L.; Cavalieri, Donald J.; Zukor, Dorothy J. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Satellite passive-microwave data have been used to calculate sea ice extents over the period 1979-1999 for the north polar sea ice cover as a whole and for each of nine regions. Over this 21-year time period, the trend in yearly average ice extents for the ice cover as a whole is -32,900 +/- 6,100 sq km/yr (-2.7 +/- 0.5 %/decade), indicating a reduction in sea ice coverage that has decelerated from the earlier reported value of -34,000 +/- 8,300 sq km/yr (-2.8 +/- 0.7 %/decade) for the period 1979-1996. Regionally, the reductions are greatest in the Arctic Ocean, the Kara and Barents Seas, and the Seas of Okhotsk and Japan, whereas seasonally, the reductions are greatest in summer, for which season the 1979-1999 trend in ice extents is -41,600 +/- 12,900 sq km/ yr (-4.9 +/- 1.5 %/decade). On a monthly basis, the reductions are greatest in July and September for the north polar ice cover as a whole, in September for the Arctic Ocean, in June and July for the Kara and Barents Seas, and in April for the Seas of Okhotsk and Japan. Only two of the nine regions show overall ice extent increases, those being the Bering Sea and the Gulf of St. Lawrence.For neither of these two regions is the increase statistically significant, whereas the 1079 - 1999 ice extent decreases are statistically significant at the 99% confidence level for the north polar region as a whole, the Arctic Ocean, the Seas of Okhotsk and Japan, and Hudson Bay.

  4. The Growing Trend of Moderate Preterm Births: An Ecological Study in One Region of Brazil.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosana Rosseto de Oliveira

    Full Text Available Preterm birth is a serious public health problem, as it is linked to high rates of neonatal and child morbidity and mortality, with Brazil listed among the countries with the ten highest numbers of premature births. Nonetheless, knowledge is scarce regarding prematurity and associated factors in mid-sized cities. The objective of this study was to analyze the trend of preterm births and associated factors in a municipality located in the state of Paraná, Brazil.This was an ecological time series study of births recorded into the Live Birth Information System for residents of Maringá, Paraná, Brazil, between 2000 and 2013. The polynomial regression model was used for trend analysis of preterm birth, characteristics of the mother, gestation and delivery, and newborn. The association with preterm birth was analyzed using odds ratio (OR.A total of 61,634 live births were analyzed, of which 5,632 were preterm births. Prematurity increased from 7.9% in 2000 to 11.2% in 2013 -an average increase of 0.54% per year (r2 = 0.93-with a growing share of moderate preterm births (32 to <37 weeks, which rose from 7.0% in 2000 to 9.7% in 2013. Between 2011 and 2013, multiple pregnancy (OR = 16.64; CI = 13.24-20.92, inadequate number of prenatal visits (OR = 2.81; CI = 2.51-3.15, Apgar score below 7 at 1 (OR = 4.07; CI = 3.55-4.67 and 5 minutes (OR = 10.88; CI = 7.71-15.36, low birth weight (OR = 38.75; CI = 33.72-44.55 and congenital malformations (OR = 3.18; CI = 2.14-4.74 were associated with preterm birth. A growing trend was observed for multiple pregnancies, with an average annual increase of 0.32% (r2 = 0.90, as well as for C-section birth (2.38% yearly increase. Of all newborn characteristics, Apgar score below 7 at 5 minutes (-0.19% per year and low birth weight (-1.43% decreased, whereas congenital malformations rose (0.20% per year.Efforts are required to prevent premature delivery, particularly during the moderate period, as well as greater care

  5. The Growing Trend of Moderate Preterm Births: An Ecological Study in One Region of Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira, Rosana Rosseto de; Melo, Emiliana Cristina; Falavina, Larissa Pereira; Mathias, Thais Aidar de Freitas

    2015-01-01

    Preterm birth is a serious public health problem, as it is linked to high rates of neonatal and child morbidity and mortality, with Brazil listed among the countries with the ten highest numbers of premature births. Nonetheless, knowledge is scarce regarding prematurity and associated factors in mid-sized cities. The objective of this study was to analyze the trend of preterm births and associated factors in a municipality located in the state of Paraná, Brazil. This was an ecological time series study of births recorded into the Live Birth Information System for residents of Maringá, Paraná, Brazil, between 2000 and 2013. The polynomial regression model was used for trend analysis of preterm birth, characteristics of the mother, gestation and delivery, and newborn. The association with preterm birth was analyzed using odds ratio (OR). A total of 61,634 live births were analyzed, of which 5,632 were preterm births. Prematurity increased from 7.9% in 2000 to 11.2% in 2013 -an average increase of 0.54% per year (r2 = 0.93)-with a growing share of moderate preterm births (32 to 2000 to 9.7% in 2013. Between 2011 and 2013, multiple pregnancy (OR = 16.64; CI = 13.24-20.92), inadequate number of prenatal visits (OR = 2.81; CI = 2.51-3.15), Apgar score below 7 at 1 (OR = 4.07; CI = 3.55-4.67) and 5 minutes (OR = 10.88; CI = 7.71-15.36), low birth weight (OR = 38.75; CI = 33.72-44.55) and congenital malformations (OR = 3.18; CI = 2.14-4.74) were associated with preterm birth. A growing trend was observed for multiple pregnancies, with an average annual increase of 0.32% (r2 = 0.90), as well as for C-section birth (2.38% yearly increase). Of all newborn characteristics, Apgar score below 7 at 5 minutes (-0.19% per year) and low birth weight (-1.43%) decreased, whereas congenital malformations rose (0.20% per year). Efforts are required to prevent premature delivery, particularly during the moderate period, as well as greater care during the prenatal period towards

  6. Secular trends in consultations for asthma in early childhood, the 16 administrative regions of Morocco, 2004-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadeq, Mina; Abouqal, Redouane; ElMarnissi, Abdelilah

    2015-09-17

    Little is known about asthma trend in Morocco, particularly in early childhood. Furthermore, when dealing with asthma related environmental risk factors in Morocco, decision-making focus is in one region R9, while 16 regions make up the country. This work aims at studying 9-year trends in consultations for asthma in under-5 children in the 16 individual regions with respect to area and age group. Direct method use, based on the only available national data from the open access files of the ministry of health, standardizing data for three age groups (0-11 ; 12-23 and 24-59 months). We compared age-adjusted rates, stratified by area (urban and rural areas) within each region (Wilcoxon's signed ranks test), and between all regions emphasizing on R9. Secular trends are examined (Kendall's rank correlation test). We also compared directly standardized rates as a rate ratio for two study populations (that of R9 and any region with highest rates). We finally compared rates by age group in selected regions. Secular increase in prevalence rates was shown in both urban and rural Morocco, particularly in urban areas of R10, R14, R16 and R5, and in rural areas of R14 and R16. In urban area of R10 (the highest age-adjusted prevalence rates area) the rates showed secular increase from 6.82 at 95 % CI = [6.44 to 7.19] per 1000 childhood population in 2004 to 20.91 at 95 % CI = [20.26 to 21.56] per 1000 childhood population in 2012 (P = 0.001). Rates were higher in urban than rural Morocco, particularly in R8, R9, R10, R14, R15 ; R6 was an exception. Rates in R10 were 1.63 higher than that in R9 in 2004 and rose to be 2.55 higher in 2012 ; rates in urban area of R14, about 3 times lower than that in R9 in 2004, increased to be similar in 2012. The highest-prevalence age group varied according to region and area. The regions that worth decision making attention are the urban areas of R10 (the highest prevalence rates Moroccan area, showing continuous increase), of R9, of R14

  7. Trends of tropospheric NO2 over the Yangtze River Delta region and the possible linkage to rapid urbanization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Mingliang; Zhang, Deying; Liu, Qiyang; Song, Yue; Zhou, Jiayuan; Shi, Runhe; Gao, Wei

    2017-09-01

    Over the past decade, China has experienced a rapid increase in urbanization. The urban built-up areas (population) of Shanghai increased by 16.1% (22.9%) from 2006 to 2015. This study aims to analyze the variations of tropospheric NO2 over Yangtze River Delta region and the impacts of rapid urbanization during 2006-2015. The results indicate that tropospheric NO2 vertical column density (VCD) of all cities in the study area showed an increasing trend during 2006-2011 whereas a decreasing trend during 2011-2015. Most cities showed a lower tropospheric NO2 VCD value in 2015 compared to that in 2006, except for Changzhou and Nantong. Shanghai and Ningbo are two hotspots where the tropospheric NO2 VCD decreased most significantly, at a rate of 22% and 19%, respectively. This effect could be ascribed to the implementation of harsh emission control policies therein. Similar seasonal variability was observed over all cities, with larger values observed in the summer and smaller values shown in the winter. Further investigations show that the observed increasing trend of tropospheric NO2 during 2006-2011 could be largely explained by rapid urbanization linked to car ownership, GDP, power consumption, population and total industrial output. Such effect was not prominent after 2011, mainly due to the implementation of emission control strategies.

  8. The Desired Image of the Future Economy of the Industrial Region: Development Trends and Evaluation Methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olga Aleksandrovna Romanova

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available In the article, the authors emphasize that industrial regions play an important role in the increasing of technological independence of Russia. We show that the decline in the share of processing industries in the gross regional product can not be treated as a negative de-industrialization of the economy. The article proves that the increase in the speed of changements, instability of socio-economic systems, the diverse risks predetermine the need to develop new methodological approaches to predictive research. The studies aimed at developing a technology for the design of the desired image of the future and the methodology for its evaluation are of high importance. For the initial stage of the research, the authors propose the methodological approach for assessing the desired image of the future of metallurgy as one of the most important industry of the region. We propose the term of «technological image of the regional metallurgy». We show that repositioning the image of the regional metallurgical complex is quite a long process. This have determined the need to define the stages of repositioning. The proposed methodology of the evaluation of desired future includes the methodological provisions to quantify the characteristics of goals achieved at the respective stages of the repositioning of the metallurgy. The methodological approach to the design of the desired image of the future implies the following stages: the identification of the priority areas of the technological development of regional metallurgy on the basis of bibliometric and patent analysis; the evaluation of dynamics of the development of the structure of metal products domestic consumption based on comparative analysis and relevant analytical methods as well as its forecasting; the design of the factor model, allowing to identify the parameters quantifying the technological image of the regional metallurgy based on the principal components method,; systematization of

  9. Overcoming trends in irregularly spaced locations by regional polish - exemplified by estimation of the range of influence between Salmonella Dublin-seropositive cattle herds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ersbøll, Annette Kjær; Ersbøll, Bjarne Kjær

    2010-01-01

    The aim of the study was to develop a procedure to remove spatial trends in irregularly spaced data, with trends partly due to regional differences. Median polish is often used on regularly spaced (lattice) data where column and row medians are removed. For irregularly spaced data a low-resolutio...

  10. Plastic surgery: quo vadis? Current trends and future projections of aesthetic plastic surgical procedures in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broer, P Niclas; Levine, Steven M; Juran, Sabrina

    2014-03-01

    The objective of this article was to evaluate past and current trends regarding aesthetic operations in the United States and to project future changes regarding such procedures. Cosmetic surgery statistics from the American Society for Aesthetic Plastic Surgery from 1997 to 2012 were analyzed by sex, age, and ethnic group. Then, using population projections from the U.S. Census Bureau based on the 2010 census, two projection scenarios of the expected number of aesthetic plastic surgery procedures were generated. The scenarios included the presumed occurrence and nonoccurrence of a recession like that which occurred in 2007. Aesthetic procedures are expected to grow from 1,688,694 in 2012 to 3,847,929 by 2030, representing an average annual growth rate of 7.1 percent. Should another recession of similar degree to the one in 2007 occur, procedures would increase to only 2,086,994, displaying an average annual growth percentage rate of 1.3 percent. Because the age distribution of the patient population will change, preferences for specific procedures according to age influence-and thus are reflected in-future demand for those procedures. Furthermore, the ethnic profile of patients will change significantly, with 32 percent of all procedures being performed on patients other than Caucasians by 2030. Demand for aesthetic plastic surgical procedures is expected to continue to grow, while depending on the economic performance at the macro level and changing demographic dynamics of the U.S. population. Considering all investigated factors and trends among all patients, the most commonly requested procedures by 2030 are likely to be (1) breast augmentations, (2) lipoplasties, and (3) blepharoplasties.

  11. The return of the projected: some thoughts on paranoia and a recent trend in horror films.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benton, R J

    1995-12-01

    I have focused on two interrelated changes in horror films of the last twenty-five years: a tendency for the "horror" to become internalized; and the use of what I call "bubbling flesh" to signify the internalized horror. Taking two films--the 1958 Fly and its 1986 remake--and treating them as (paranoid) fantasies, I have explored what I take to be the unconscious meanings of these changes. Although both films present oedipal as well as pre-oedipal conflicts, and although both employ paranoid mechanisms of negation and projection of an unacceptable wish, the earlier film also makes greater use of repression to keep the preoedipal wishes farther from consciousness. The earlier film is also more successful in its projection: In the later film the projective mechanisms fail and the projected returns to its original locus. The particular unacceptable wish that I see as being fundamental to these two films (and perhaps to all horror films) is a radically passive wish for merger with the mother--a merger wish so radical that it can be seen in terms of Gun-trip's "return to the womb" wishes, and so passive that it can be seen as a nearly pure form o Freud's death drive--the drive toward total quiescence and dissolution. I have associated the differences between the two films with changes in society in the past decades, and especially with changes in traditionally conceived gender roles and their associated senses of gender identity. Finally, I have suggested that we view these historical changes not as signs of societal regression but as the beginnings of the failure of one set of defense mechanisms that can possibly allow an opening to try out new strategies.

  12. Future Changes in Surface Runoff over Korea Projected by a Regional Climate Model under A1B Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ji-Woo Lee

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study assesses future change of surface runoff due to climate change over Korea using a regional climate model (RCM, namely, the Global/Regional Integrated Model System (GRIMs, Regional Model Program (RMP. The RMP is forced by future climate scenario, namely, A1B of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4. The RMP satisfactorily reproduces the observed seasonal mean and variation of surface runoff for the current climate simulation. The distribution of monsoonal precipitation-related runoff is adequately captured by the RMP. In the future (2040–2070 simulation, it is shown that the increasing trend of temperature has significant impacts on the intra-annual runoff variation. The variability of runoff is increased in summer; moreover, the strengthened possibility of extreme occurrence is detected in the future climate. This study indicates that future climate projection, including surface runoff and its variability over Korea, can be adequately addressed on the RMP testbed. Furthermore, this study reflects that global warming affects local hydrological cycle by changing major water budget components. This study adduces that the importance of runoff should not be overlooked in regional climate studies, and more elaborate presentation of fresh-water cycle is needed to close hydrological circulation in RCMs.

  13. Regional trends in breast cancer incidence and mortality in Denmark prior to mammographic screening

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andreasen, A H; Andersen, K W; Madsen, Mette

    1994-01-01

    To provide a basis for the evaluation of mammographic screening programmes in Denmark, a study was undertaken of the regional differences in breast cancer incidence and mortality. All 16 regions were followed for the 20 year period, 1970-89, before the start of the first population...... among women below age 60. The mortality was more stable, changing only from 24 to 28 (per 100,000 standardised WSP), but a significant increase occurred in the late 1980s. The study showed regional differences in both incidence and mortality of breast cancer in Denmark. Both the incidence......-based mammographic screening programme in the Copenhagen municipality in 1991. Multiplicative Poisson models were used for the analysis. In general, the incidence increased during this period from 55 to 70 [per 100,000 standardised world standard population (WSP)], and the analysis shows this to be most pronounced...

  14. Trends in riverine element fluxes: A chronicle of regional socio-economic changes

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kopáček, Jiří; Hejzlar, Josef; Porcal, Petr; Posch, M.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 125, NOV (2017), s. 374-383 ISSN 0043-1354 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA15-04034S; GA ČR GA17-15229S Institutional support: RVO:60077344 Keywords : water pollution * hydrology * ions * nitrogen * phosphorus Subject RIV: DJ - Water Pollution ; Quality OBOR OECD: Water resources Impact factor: 6.942, year: 2016

  15. Temporal and elevation trends in rainfall erosivity on a 149 km2 watershed in a semi-arid region of the American Southwest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark A. Nearing

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Temporal changes in rainfall erosivity can be expected to occur with changing climate, and because rainfall amounts are known to be in part of a function of elevation, erosivity can be expected to be influenced by elevation as well. This is particularly true in mountainous regions such as are found over much of the western United States. The objective of this study was to identify temporal and elevation trends in rainfall erosivity on a 149 km2 (58 miles2 watershed in a semi-arid region of southeastern Arizona. Data from 84 rain gages for the years 1960–2012 at elevations ranging from 1231 to 1644 m (4038–5394 ft were used in the analyses. The average annual erosivity over the watershed as a whole was 1104 MJ mm ha−1 h−1 yr−1 (65 hundreds of foot ton inch acre−1 h−1 yr−1, and ranged from approximately 950 to 1225 MJ mm ha−1 h−1 yr−1 (56–72 hundreds of foot ton inch acre−1 h−1 yr−1, with a statistical trend showing greater erosivity at the higher elevations. No statistically significant temporal changes in annual or summer erosivities were found. This result stands in contrast to recent modeling studies of runoff and erosion in the area based on downscaled GCM information that project significant levels of erosivity changes over coming decades. These results are consistent with known orographic rainfall effects, but contrast with recent studies that presented projections of significant trends of increasing erosivity in the future based on downscaled GCM outputs for the area. The results illustrate the need for testing and developing improved techniques to evaluate future erosion scenarios for purposes of making targeted soil conservation decisions. Keywords: Climate change, R-factor, RUSLE, Semiarid, Soil erosion, Walnut Gulch

  16. Consumption trends for specific drugs used to treat dementia in the region of Madrid (Spain) from 2002 to 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Hoyos-Alonso, M C; Tapias-Merino, E; Meseguer Barros, C M; Sánchez-Martínez, M; Otero, A

    2015-09-01

    Analysing drug consumption in large population groups lets us observe consumption trends and compare them between different settings. to analyse the time trends for consumption and costs of specific drugs used to treat dementia in the region of Madrid (Spain) and compare trends by sex and age cohort. Descriptive study of cholinesterase inhibitors (N06DA) and memantine (N06DX01) dispensed in Madrid between 2002 and 2012 and covered by the Spain's national health system. Consumption was calculated by analysing changes in DDD (defined daily doses) to find total and yearly increases. The cost was estimated based on DDD price. To compare consumption rates by age and sex, we calculated DDD per 100 inhabitants/day. Between 2002 and 2012, consumption of drugs used to treat dementia increased sixfold. During this period, cholinesterase inhibitors accounted for 76.70% of the drugs consumed and memantine, 23.30%. The estimated cost rose by a by a factor of 5.7 over 11 years (or by a factor of 4 taking into account the use of generic drugs). In 2012, 2.42% of the patients aged 65 or over consumed cholinesterase inhibitors (women 2.82%, men 1.83%) and 0.90% consumed memantine (women 1.10%, men 0.61%). Consumption increased in age cohorts up to 86 to 90 (5.84% for cholinesterase inhibitors and 2.33% for memantine) and declined thereafter. Consumption of cholinesterase inhibitors and memantine gradually increased, but consumption in 2012 did not reach levels equivalent to dementia prevalence figures. Pharmaceutical expenditure restraint measures may temporarily slow the cost increase temporarily but if the same trend of consumption persists, costs will rise. Copyright © 2013 Sociedad Española de Neurología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  17. Specification and evaluation of a regional PACS in the SaxTeleMed project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemke, Heinz U.; Niederlag, W.; Heuser, H.

    2002-05-01

    During the early development phase of PACS, its implementation was mainly a matter of the radiological department of a hospital. This is changing rapidly and PACS planning and realization is increasingly seen in the context of a hospital-wide approach. With a growth of networking amongst healthcare institutions and the growing relevance of teleradiological scenarios, new strategies must be followed which take not only local but also regional and global aspects of PACS into consideration. One such regional PACS project was initiated by the Ministry of Social Welfare of the Free State of Saxony in Germany. This 'reference model program for the digitization of imaging procedures and communication of images between hospitals in the free state of Saxony' (SaxTeleMed) covers seven regional projects distributed throughout Saxony. Each regional project is organized around so called lead hospitals, which network with other cooperating hospitals and medical practices. The regional reference projects are designed to be largely independent from one another. In some instances, however, a network connection between reference projects is also considered. Altogether, 39 hospitals and medical centers are involved in the model program. The aim of this program is to test the technical, organizational, legal and economic problems in the area of digitization and networking within the free State of Saxony. With the knowledge gained it is expected to improve future investment decisions in healthcare and above all to implement secure systems.

  18. Prevalence and trends of metabolic syndrome among adults in the asia-pacific region: a systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Ranasinghe

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Asia-Pacific region is home to nearly half of the world’s population. The region has seen a recent rapid increase in the prevalence of obesity, type-2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. The present systematic review summarizes the recent prevalence and trends of Metabolic Syndrome (MetS among adults in countries of the Asia-Pacific Region. Methods Data on MetS in Asia-Pacific countries were obtained using a stepwise process by searching the online Medline database using MeSH terms ‘Metabolic Syndrome X’ and ‘Epidemiology/EP’. For the purpose of describing prevalence data for the individual countries, studies that were most recent, nationally representative or with the largest sample size were included. When evaluating secular trends in prevalence in a country we only considered studies that evaluated the temporal change in prevalence between similar populations, prospective studies based on the same population or National surveys conducted during different time periods. Results This literature search yielded a total of 757 articles, and five additional article were identified by screening of reference lists. From this total, 18 studies were eligible to be included in the final analysis. Of the 51 Asia-Pacific countries (WHO we only located data for 15. There was wide between country variation in prevalence of MetS. A national survey from Philippines conducted in 2003 revealed the lowest reported prevalence of 11.9% according to NCEP ATP III criteria. In contrast, the highest recorded prevalence in the region (49.0% came from a study conducted in urban Pakistan (Karachchi, 2004. Most studies reported a higher prevalence of MetS in females and urban residents. Data on secular trends were available for China, South Korea and Taiwan. An increase in the prevalence of MetS was observed in all three countries. Conclusion Despite differences in methodology, diagnostic criteria and age of subjects studied, the Asia

  19. Burden and trends of type-specific human papillomavirus infections and related diseases in the latin america and Caribbean region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkin, D Maxwell; Almonte, Maribel; Bruni, Laia; Clifford, Gary; Curado, Maria-Paula; Piñeros, Marion

    2008-08-19

    We present the burden of human papillomavirus (HPV)-related cancers (cancers of the cervix, anogenital region, oral cavity and pharynx) in terms of incidence and mortality, for the countries of the Latin America and Caribbean region. The region is a high-risk area for cancer of the cervix and, although incidence has declined since the 1960s, projected demographic changes imply that the actual burden of new cases will increase by more than 75% in the next 20 years, while the average and at diagnosis will increase. Approximately 65% of cervical cancer cases and 50% of the high risk lesions are associated with HPV-16 and 18. Incidence rates of other HPV-related cancers are significantly lower. The paper also describes the estimated impact of genital warts and the limited data available on the occurrence of HPV infections of the upper aerodigestive tract in the region.

  20. Age standardization in mapping adult overweight and obesity trends in the WHO European Region

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Doak, C M; Wijnhoven, T.M.A.; Schokker, D F; Visscher, T L S; Seidell, J C

    2012-01-01

    This study aims to improve comparability of available data within the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region taking into account differences related to the aging of the population. Surveys were included if they were conducted on adults aged 25-64 years between 1985 and 2010 in the WHO

  1. African regional conferences as an indicator of research trends in South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Paige-Green, P

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The 2011 African Regional Conference on Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering is the 15th in the series of 4 yearly conferences. The majority of the early conferences were held in sub-Saharan Africa with significant contributions from South...

  2. Changes to urban form and commuting patterns: trends in two Danish city regions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick

    2015-01-01

    This paper compares indicators of polycentricity in a monocentric (MUR) and a polycentric urban region (PUR) in Denmark at two points in time (1982 and 2002). It describes how population, jobs and commuting indicators of polycentricity develop and interact over time. Both the MUR and the PUR tend...

  3. Demographic and social trends affecting intergenerational relations in the MENA region

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Messkoub (Mahmood)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractThis paper focuses on poverty in the MENA region and whether it can be alleviated by intergenerational support within and across households. Intergenerational relations are mediated through several institutions. The most prominent of these are households, state, civil society and market.

  4. Energy contribution to Latin American INDCs: Analyzing sub-regional trends with a TIMES model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Postic, Sebastien; Selosse, Sandrine; Maïzi, Nadia

    2017-01-01

    Central and South America and the Caribbean countries share energy and climate features that are quite different from the rest of the world, including a highly renewable energy mix and very high renewable energy potentials, along with high deforestation and degradation rates which call for regional answers to regional issues. This paper assesses the impact of national contributions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change using an energy prospective model from the MarkAl/TIMES family. This approach enables a bottom-up comparison between past pledges (Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions) and the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) agreed on at COP21. Long-term economic optimization leads to decarbonizing the power sector even in the absence of climate constraints. Stringent climate policies as modeled here achieve emission reductions of 40% below the current baseline by 2050. NDCs produce stronger emission reductions than NAMAs at regional scale; however, the first contributor to emission reductions in absolute terms in Latin America is the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land-Use (AFOLU) sector, not energy. - Highlights: • We analyze energy-bound climate mitigation in Latin America with a bottom-up model. • We derive five policy scenarios based on past and current pledges to the UNFCCC. • Despite a clean BAU power mix, the region can cut emissions by up to 40% by 2050. • INDCs lead to stronger emission reductions than former NAMAs. • Energy-only measures would overlook significant abatement potential in AFOLU.

  5. Status and trends of bottomland hardwood forests in the mid-Atlantic Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anita Rose; Steve Meadows

    2016-01-01

    Bottomland hardwood forests cover approximately 2.9 million acres of the Coastal Plain and Piedmont region of Virginia and North Carolina. As of 2014, 59 percent of bottomland hardwood forests were in the large-diameter stand-size class. Between 2002 and 2014, area of large-diameter sized stands increased, while that of medium- and small-diameter stands decreased,...

  6. Twenty-three years (1993-2015) of homicide trends in the Transkei region of South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banwari, Meel

    2018-01-01

    Background Transkei is regarded as a rural part of South Africa. It was one of the black homelands where rigorous apartheid was practised. The incidence of firearm-related deaths used to be very high, but after the implementation of the Firearm Control Act in 2002, the trend changed. However, the murder rate is still a major public-health problem in this region of South Africa. Objective The aim of this study was to investigate 23 years (1993-2015) of homicide trends in the Transkei region of South Africa. Method A review of records of medico-legal autopsies performed at Mthatha Forensic Pathology Laboratory from 1993 to 2015 was undertaken. Results Between 1993 and 2015, the number of autopsies performed on people who had died unnatural deaths was 24,693. The records of 12,618 (51%) autopsies on victims of homicide between 1993 and 2015 were available for study. The average rate of murder was 85/100,000 of the population in this region. Of these deaths, on average 34/100,000 were caused by sharp-edged instruments, 30/100,000 by gunshot wounds and 21/100,000 by blunt trauma. The rate of murder of males was significantly higher than that of females, with a ratio of 5.7:1, and over the period of 23 years covered by this study, the incidence was highest (30.5/100,000) in the young age group between 21 and 30 years. Conclusion The rate of homicide is very high in the Transkei region of South Africa. It needs urgent intervention to curb unnecessary deaths.

  7. Aerosol and rainfall variability over the Indian monsoon region: distributions, trends and coupling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Gautam

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Aerosol solar absorption over the Indian monsoon region has a potential role of modulating the monsoon circulation and rainfall distribution as suggested by recent studies based on model simulations. Prior to the onset of the monsoon, northern India is influenced by significant dust transport that constitutes the bulk of the regional aerosol loading over the Gangetic-Himalayan region. In this paper, a multi-sensor characterization of the increasing pre-monsoon aerosol loading over northern India, in terms of their spatial, temporal and vertical distribution is presented. Aerosol transport from the northwestern arid regions into the Indo-Gangetic Plains and over the foothills of the Himalayas is found to be vertically extended to elevated altitudes (up to 5 km as observed from the space-borne lidar measurements (CALIPSO. In relation with the enhanced pre-monsoon aerosol loading and the associated solar absorption effects on tropospheric temperature anomalies, this paper investigates the monsoon rainfall variability over India in recent past decades from an observational viewpoint. It is found that the early summer monsoon rainfall over India is on the rise since 1950s, as indicated by historical rainfall data, with over 20% increase for the period 1950–2004. This large sustained increase in the early summer rainfall is led by the observed strengthening of the pre-monsoon tropospheric land-sea thermal gradient over the Indian monsoon region as indicated by microwave satellite measurements (MSU of tropospheric temperatures from 1979–2007. Combined analysis of changes in tropospheric temperatures and summer monsoon rainfall in the past three decades, suggest a future possibility of an emerging rainfall pattern of a wetter monsoon over South Asia in early summer followed by a drier period.

  8. Glacier changes and climate trends derived from multiple sources in the data scarce Cordillera Vilcanota region, southern Peruvian Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salzmann, N.; Huggel, C.; Rohrer, M.; Silverio, W.; Mark, B. G.; Burns, P.; Portocarrero, C.

    2013-01-01

    The role of glaciers as temporal water reservoirs is particularly pronounced in the (outer) tropics because of the very distinct wet/dry seasons. Rapid glacier retreat caused by climatic changes is thus a major concern, and decision makers demand urgently for regional/local glacier evolution trends, ice mass estimates and runoff assessments. However, in remote mountain areas, spatial and temporal data coverage is typically very scarce and this is further complicated by a high spatial and temporal variability in regions with complex topography. Here, we present an approach on how to deal with these constraints. For the Cordillera Vilcanota (southern Peruvian Andes), which is the second largest glacierized cordillera in Peru (after the Cordillera Blanca) and also comprises the Quelccaya Ice Cap, we assimilate a comprehensive multi-decadal collection of available glacier and climate data from multiple sources (satellite images, meteorological station data and climate reanalysis), and analyze them for respective changes in glacier area and volume and related trends in air temperature, precipitation and in a more general manner for specific humidity. While we found only marginal glacier changes between 1962 and 1985, there has been a massive ice loss since 1985 (about 30% of area and about 45% of volume). These high numbers corroborate studies from other glacierized cordilleras in Peru. The climate data show overall a moderate increase in air temperature, mostly weak and not significant trends for precipitation sums and probably cannot in full explain the observed substantial ice loss. Therefore, the likely increase of specific humidity in the upper troposphere, where the glaciers are located, is further discussed and we conclude that it played a major role in the observed massive ice loss of the Cordillera Vilcanota over the past decades.

  9. Glacier changes and climate trends derived from multiple sources in the data scarce Cordillera Vilcanota region, southern Peruvian Andes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Salzmann

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The role of glaciers as temporal water reservoirs is particularly pronounced in the (outer tropics because of the very distinct wet/dry seasons. Rapid glacier retreat caused by climatic changes is thus a major concern, and decision makers demand urgently for regional/local glacier evolution trends, ice mass estimates and runoff assessments. However, in remote mountain areas, spatial and temporal data coverage is typically very scarce and this is further complicated by a high spatial and temporal variability in regions with complex topography. Here, we present an approach on how to deal with these constraints. For the Cordillera Vilcanota (southern Peruvian Andes, which is the second largest glacierized cordillera in Peru (after the Cordillera Blanca and also comprises the Quelccaya Ice Cap, we assimilate a comprehensive multi-decadal collection of available glacier and climate data from multiple sources (satellite images, meteorological station data and climate reanalysis, and analyze them for respective changes in glacier area and volume and related trends in air temperature, precipitation and in a more general manner for specific humidity. While we found only marginal glacier changes between 1962 and 1985, there has been a massive ice loss since 1985 (about 30% of area and about 45% of volume. These high numbers corroborate studies from other glacierized cordilleras in Peru. The climate data show overall a moderate increase in air temperature, mostly weak and not significant trends for precipitation sums and probably cannot in full explain the observed substantial ice loss. Therefore, the likely increase of specific humidity in the upper troposphere, where the glaciers are located, is further discussed and we conclude that it played a major role in the observed massive ice loss of the Cordillera Vilcanota over the past decades.

  10. Assessment of Humidity Conditions and Trends Based on Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SEPI Over Different Climatic Regions of Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Ghabaei S

    2017-01-01

    temperature, mean relative humidity, sunshine hours and wind speed at 2 m height. A probability-based overall water deficit assessment was achieved from multiple drought-related indices (i.e. SPEI, SPI and RDI. The humidity conditions were monitored for given stations based on each index during annual, short term (1, 3 and 6 months and long term (9 , 12, 18 and 24 months periods. This research further examine the Locally Weighted Scatter plot Smoothing (LOWESS graphical method and nonparametric Man- Kendal test to evaluate the trends associated with humidity deficiency in annual and monthly time scales during 51 years period (i.e. 1960-2010. Results and Discussion: Our results revealed that the maximum correlation between SPEI index with indices of SPI and RDI was achieved in the coastal wet region and with a declining trend in relative humidity condition in the rest of the regions, this correlation is down over both short- and long-term periods. A comparison between SPI and SPEI also performed that the SPI index was able to reflect prolonged drought over the costal wet region where it showed significant inconstancy in desert and semi desert regions. SPEI result suggested substantial deficiencies in relative humidity at the beginning of 1997 during long term period which indicated an increasing trend of drought statues during last decades. Overall, according to the results of SPEI index in 1month periods monthly drought assessment showed a declining trend in drought magnitude during autumn, winter and spring season months (October to June at investigated stations excepts Tehran and Shiraz stations and with a potential deficiency in relative humidity conditions. Unlikely, annual trend showed increasing trends in drought frequency and persistent over last decade. Conclusion: Our results can be summarized as below: Focusing on various types of deficits, the result of humidity based deficiencies indicated that for semi-mountains, mountains, semi-arid, arid and costal desert

  11. Terms, Trends, and Insights: PV Project Finance in the United States, 2017

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Feldman, David J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Schwabe, Paul D [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-10-23

    This brief is a compilation of data points and market insights that reflect the state of the project finance market for solar photovoltaic (PV) assets in the United States as of the third quarter of 2017. This information can generally be used as a simplified benchmark of the costs associated with securing financing for solar PV as well as the cost of the financing itself (i.e., the cost of capital). This work represents the second DOE sponsored effort to benchmark financing costs across the residential, commercial, and utility-scale PV markets, as part of its larger effort to benchmark the components of PV system costs.

  12. Measuring Progress on the Control of Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS at a Regional Level: The Minnesota N212 Regional Control Project (Rcp as a Working Example.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo Valdes-Donoso

    Full Text Available Due to the highly transmissible nature of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS, implementation of regional programs to control the disease may be critical. Because PRRS is not reported in the US, numerous voluntary regional control projects (RCPs have been established. However, the effect of RCPs on PRRS control has not been assessed yet. This study aims to quantify the extent to which RCPs contribute to PRRS control by proposing a methodological framework to evaluate the progress of RCPs. Information collected between July 2012 and June 2015 from the Minnesota Voluntary Regional PRRS Elimination Project (RCP-N212 was used. Demography of premises (e.g. composition of farms with sows = SS and without sows = NSS was assessed by a repeated analysis of variance. By using general linear mixed-effects models, active participation of farms enrolled in the RCP-N212, defined as the decision to share (or not to share PRRS status, was evaluated and used as a predictor, along with other variables, to assess the PRRS trend over time. Additionally, spatial and temporal patterns of farmers' participation and the disease dynamics were investigated. The number of farms enrolled in RCP-N212 and its geographical coverage increased, but the proportion of SS and NSS did not vary significantly over time. A significant increasing (p<0.001 trend in farmers' decision to share PRRS status was observed, but with NSS producers less willing to report and a large variability between counties. The incidence of PRRS significantly (p<0.001 decreased, showing a negative correlation between degree of participation and occurrence of PRRS (p<0.001 and a positive correlation with farm density at the county level (p = 0.02. Despite a noted decrease in PRRS, significant spatio-temporal patterns of incidence of the disease over 3-weeks and 3-kms during the entire study period were identified. This study established a systematic approach to quantify the effect of RCPs on

  13. TRENDS OF DEVELOPMENT OF PRODUCTION AND REALIZATION OF PLANT PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL ENTERPRISES OF MYKOLAIV REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kushniruk Viktor

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Agriculture is one of the largest and most important sectors of the Ukrainian economy. The food security and independence of the state, the state of the internal and external markets, and, consequently, the standard of living of the population are directly dependent on its functional state. Mykolaiv region has significant opportunities for the development of the agricultural sector. There are favorable natural and climatic conditions, fertile land, labor resources and long-standing cultivating traditions. The region is considered one of the regions of intensive agriculture in Ukraine and has significant land resources. Purpose. The article presents the analysis of the development of production and sale of crop production by the agrarian enterprises of the Mykolaiv region, as well as revealing ways to increase the volume of their production and sales. Results. The crop area of main agricultural crops in all categories of farms was analyzed, and structural changes for 2010-2016 were revealed. The priority branch of the agro-industrial complex, which has an important strategic significance, first of all, is determined by the level of production of which the food security of the state depends, its economy and welfare of the population. The dynamics of agricultural crop yields in agrarian enterprises as the determining factor of influence on the efficiency of activity in the field of plant growing is researched. The dynamics of gross collections of crop production in agricultural enterprises is analyzed and the contribution of the Mykolaiv region to the national production of grain is determined. The volumes and average prices of sales of agricultural products by agrarian enterprises are investigated and it is determined that the modern development of the agrarian sector of the economy requires special attention to the formation and activation of the activities of market infrastructure entities. The production of which crops are an

  14. Project of Carbon Capture in Small and Medium Farms in the Brunca Region, Costa Rica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilmar Navarrete

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM of the Kyoto Protocol, allows the non Annex 1 countries to receive projects that contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and sustainable development in developing countries. The CDM, since its inception, has issued credits equivalent to 1.434.737.562 tons of CO2, distributed across 7.450 projects around the world, from 15 different sectors. Sectors 14 that allow forestry projects (such as reforestation and afforestation have registered 53 projects to date; 19 of which are in Latin America. Nevertheless, the contribution of this sector currently represents less than 1% of CDM Certificates of Emissions Reduction (CERs issued. In September 2013, through their National Forestry Financing Fund (FONAFIFO, Costa Rica registered their first CDM project with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, after having complied with all the project cycle processes. The project, known as "Carbon Sequestration in Small and Medium Farms, Brunca Region, Costa Rica" was a project executed by FONAFIFO under their Environmental Services Payment Program. This project was developed in Pérez Zeledón, San José, Costa Rica in partnership with the Cooperative Corporation CoopeAgri RL. The total goal of the project is to reduce the greenhouse gas emission by 176,050 ton of CO2-e, in a period of 20 years and commercialize the CERs in the regulated carbon market.

  15. A More Peaceful World Regional Conflict Trends and U. S. Defense Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    projections suggests that it is rela- tively more important for the United States to “hedge its bets ”— that is, to plan for the possibility that the...diverge, that suggests it is relatively more important for the United States to “hedge its bets ”—that is, to plan for the possibility that the baseline...is often better to think of the distinction between criminal and political violence as a sliding scale and to recognize that the distinction is a

  16. Solar radiation in Germany - observed trends and an assessment of their causes. Pt. 1; Regional approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liepert, B [Muenchen Univ., Freising (Germany). Lehrstuhl fuer Bioklimatologie und Immissionsforschung; Fabian, P [Muenchen Univ., Freising (Germany). Lehrstuhl fuer Bioklimatologie und Immissionsforschung; Grassl, H [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany)

    1994-02-01

    The possible longterm variation of daily sums of global solar radiation (direct plus diffuse solar radiation) in West-Germany was analysed for twelve stations of the German Weather Service (DWD). The global solar radiation decreased remarkably at seven stations (List/Sylt, Norderney, Hamburg, Braunlage, Wuerzburg, Weihenstephan, Hohenpeissenberg) and showed no significant variations at the remaining five stations (Braunschweig, Bocholt, Gelsenkirchen, Trier and Freiburg). The average decline is 3.7[+-]1.3% per decade in the last 15 to 39 years. The locally varying causes for the decline are changes in cloud parameters, fog occurrence and tropospheric aerosol. In this part of the article some possible causes, such as solar variability, increased number of contrails, decreased surface reflectivity, increased volcanic aerosol load in the 1980's or increased water vapour column content could be excluded. With a more sophisticated statistical procedure the effect of changes in cloud parameters and the effect of changed clear sky turbidity could not only be separated for each month for Hohenpeissenberg and Wuerzburg but also made mainly responsible for the observed trend. In Part II (Grabbe, Grassl), more detailed observations of solar radiation hourly averages of Hamburg were analysed. (orig.)

  17. Changing trends in nervous system diseases among hospitalized children in the Chongqing region

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xin Zou; Nong Xiao; Bei Xu

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate the changing trends of nervous system diseases among hospitalized children and the risk factors of death. METHOD: The disease was statistically classified according to the International Statistical Classification of Disease and Health Problem (ICD10). The retrospective investigation includes demographic characteristics, as well as categories and fatality rates for nervous system diseases. All data was statistically analyzed. RESULTS: The percentage of nervous system diseases among inpatients in all wards was 2.4% (2 537/ 107 250) between January 1993 and December 1999, and 3.6% (6 082/170 619) between January 2000 and December 2006. The first ten patterns of various etiologic forms of nervous system diseases were identical-epilepsies and seizures, infections of the central nervous system, autoimmune and demyelination disorders, cerebral palsy, motor unit disorders, hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy, hydrocephalus, extra-pyramidal disorders, congenital abnormalities of nervous system, and headache. Epilepsies and seizures took first place in both year groups, with 29.4% and 35%, respectively. Bacterial infections were responsible for the majority of cranial infections in both year groups, with 78.9% and 63.6% respectively. The death rate in the year group January 2000 to December 2006 was significantly less than in the year group January 1993 to December 1999 (X2= 27.832, P<0.01). CONCLUSION: Among all nervous system diseases, epilepsies and seizures were among the most common, with the lowest fatality rate.

  18. Regional trends in early-monsoon rainfall over Vietnam and CCSM4 attribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, R.; Wang, S. S.-Y.; Gillies, R. R.; Buckley, B. M.; Yoon, J.-H.; Cho, C.

    2018-04-01

    The analysis of precipitation trends for Vietnam revealed that early-monsoon precipitation has increased over the past three decades but to varying degrees over the northern, central and southern portions of the country. Upon investigation, it was found that the change in early-monsoon precipitation is associated with changes in the low-level cyclonic airflow over the South China Sea and Indochina that is embedded in the large-scale atmospheric circulation associated with a "La Niña-like" anomalous sea surface temperature pattern with warming in the western Pacific and Indian Oceans and cooling in the eastern Pacific. The Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) was subsequently used for an attribution analysis. Over northern Vietnam an early-monsoon increase in precipitation is attributed to changes in both greenhouse gases and natural forcing. For central Vietnam, the observed increase in early-monsoon precipitation is reproduced by the simulation forced with greenhouse gases. However, over southern Vietnam the early-monsoon precipitation increase is less definitive where aerosols were seen to be preponderant but natural forcing through the role of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation may well be a factor that is not resolved by CCSM4. Increased early-monsoonal precipitation over the coastal lowland and deltas has the potential to amplify economic and human losses.

  19. Regional assessment of North America: Urbanization trends, biodiversity patterns, and ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    McPhearson, Timon; Auch, Roger F.; Alberti, Marina

    2013-01-01

    North America contains some of the most urbanized landscapes in the world. In the United States (U.S.) and Canada, approximately 80 % of the population is urban, with Mexico slightly less (Kaiser Family Foundation 2013). Population growth combined with economic growth has fueled recent urban land expansion in North America. Between 1970 and 2000, urban land area expanded at a rate of 3.31 % (Seto et al. 2011) creating unique challenges for conserving biodiversity and maintaining regional and local ecosystem services.

  20. Bibliometric analysis of public health research in Africa: The overall trend and regional comparisons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuh-Shan Ho

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Many diseases in Africa can be prevented with appropriate public health interventions. This study aimed to assess the bibliometric characteristics of public health related research articles published by researchers in African institutions from 1991 to 2005. Data used in this study were obtained from the online version of the ISI Web of Science: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-Expanded. Articles published between 1991 and 2005 that had the phrase ‘public health’ in the title, author keywords or abstract, and had at least one author whose contact address was in an African country, were selected for analysis. The annual number of public health related articles published by African researchers significantly increased from 28 articles in 1991 to 135 articles in 2005, a 382% increase. International collaboration also increased: from 45% of articles having international collaborators during 1991–1995, to 52% during1996–2000, and to 67% during 2001–2005. Collaborations were mostly with European and North American countries. Keywords, subject categories and collaboration patterns of articles varied across regions, reflecting differences in needs and collaboration networks. Public health related research output, as well as international collaborations, have been increasing in Africa. Regional variation observed in this study may assist policymakers to facilitate the advancement of public health research in different regions of Africa, and could be useful for international organisations in identifying needs and to allocate research funding. Future bibliometric analyses of articles published by African researchers, can consider conducting regional comparisons using standardised methods, as well as describing the overall patterns, in order to provide a more comprehensive view of their bibliometric characteristics.

  1. Structural Transformations of the Economy in the Pacific Region of Russia and Efficiency Trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Yakovlevich Baklanov

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Pacific Russia is considered as an aqua-territorial macro-region entering the Far Eastern Federal Okrug and its adjacent water area within a 200-mile sea economic zone. The macro-region has the richest nature-resource potential of a dry land and the sea, the possibilities to use the sea transport for communications of Russia and Europe with the countries of the Asian-Pacific region. In Pacific Russia, two latitudinal zones are allocated: the northern and southern ones, consisting of the territories of the Far Eastern Federal Okrug of Russia. Combinations of activities by the subjects and by the latitudinal zones are considered as the territorial structures of economy. The distinctions of these latitudinal zones by their socio-economic potential and the level of development are shown. By the changes of homogeneous activities in the subjects and their ratios, measured in the shares of the added cost, the assessment of the structural transformation of economy was carried out in the latitudinal zones from 2004 to 2013. The tendencies of the transformation of the territorial structures of economy were revealed in the latitudinal zones. The greatest changes of the structures of economy occurred in the northern zone for this period. In the southern zone, the structural transformations of economy were a little less, except for Sakhalin. In this case, in both latitudinal zones, a share of processing manufactures reduced and that of the extracting industries increased. The generalized assessment of the changes in social and economic efficiency (by increased personal income, labor productivity, profits in correlation with the structural changes in the economy of the regions of Pacific Russia has been made. The authors note that an important premise for building a sufficiently sustainable system of interregional division of labor in Pacific Russia is the location of extractive industries and initial stages of the manufacturing industry activities in the

  2. Toward the Development of a Cold Regions Regional-Scale Hydrologic Model, Final Project Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hinzman, Larry D [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States); Bolton, William Robert [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States); Young-Robertson, Jessica (Cable) [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States)

    2018-01-02

    This project improves meso-scale hydrologic modeling in the boreal forest by: (1) demonstrating the importance of capturing the heterogeneity of the landscape using small scale datasets for parameterization for both small and large basins; (2) demonstrating that in drier parts of the landscape and as the boreal forest dries with climate change, modeling approaches must consider the sensitivity of simulations to soil hydraulic parameters - such as residual water content - that are usually held constant. Thus, variability / flexibility in residual water content must be considered for accurate simulation of hydrologic processes in the boreal forest; (3) demonstrating that assessing climate change impacts on boreal forest hydrology through multiple model integration must account for direct effects of climate change (temperature and precipitation), and indirect effects from climate impacts on landscape characteristics (permafrost and vegetation distribution). Simulations demonstrated that climate change will increase runoff, but will increase ET to a greater extent and result in a drying of the landscape; and (4) vegetation plays a significant role in boreal hydrologic processes in permafrost free areas that have deciduous trees. This landscape type results in a decoupling of ET and precipitation, a tight coupling of ET and temperature, low runoff, and overall soil drying.

  3. The Mediterranean Solar Plan: Project proposals for renewable energy in the Mediterranean Partner Countries region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jablonski, Sophie; Tarhini, Mohamad; Touati, Manaf; Gonzalez Garcia, David; Alario, Juan

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a first assessment of the renewable energy projects, proposed by the nine Mediterranean Partner Countries (MPCs) under the Mediterranean Solar Plan (MSP) and the associated potential economic impacts. As one of the priority projects of the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM), the MSP's objective which attracted most attention until now is the intention to deploy an additional 20 GW of renewable electrical capacity in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean region (covering the MPCs plus Turkey) by 2020. The main findings of this research are: (1) as of February 2010, a total of 10.3 GW of renewable project proposals were identified in the MPCs, corresponding to about half of the 20 GW target; (2) investment needs for the identified projects could amount to EUR 21 billion by 2020, which represents about five times the amount invested by the region in conventional electricity generation in the last decade; and (3) the difference between the cost of renewable electricity generation and the economic cost of its fossil fuel alternatives could amount to EUR 1.2 billion. Insights stemming from the results of this research can generate useful regional messages for energy policy leaders in the MPCs to accelerate the development of renewable energy projects. - Highlights: ► We conducted a systematic survey of renewable energy projects in the Mediterranean. ► The identified projects correspond to half the MSP 20 GW target. ► Maturity assessment is used to classify the advancement of the projects. ► We estimated the investment needs and required subsidies in the region by 2020.

  4. Radiation Fog in the US Mid-Atlantic Region: Chemical Composition, Trends, and Gas-Liquid Partitioning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Straub, D.

    2016-12-01

    The chemical composition of radiation fog has been studied at a rural site in central Pennsylvania over an eight year period extending through 2015. Bulk fog samples were collected with an automated Caltech Heated Rod Cloud Collector (CHRCC) and analyzed for pH, inorganic ions, organic acids, total organic carbon (TOC), and total nitrogen (TN). Over the duration of the project, 146 samples were collected and used to document chemical composition, evaluate changes over time, and to investigate partitioning between the gas and aqueous phases. Ammonium, sulfate, calcium, and nitrate were the most abundant inorganic ions while acetate and formate were the dominant organic acids. Organic acids contributed about 15% to TOC. Inorganic nitrogen accounted for the majority of TN, with only 18% of TN attributed to organic nitrogen. Overall, organic matter contributed 52% to the total mass loading of the fog samples, a value that is higher than reported for other radiation fog studies. Statistically significant decreasing trends were observed for sulfate, ammonium, chloride, nitrate, and pH. These trends coincide with reductions in emissions from fossil fuel combustion that have been documented over this time period. Seasonal trends were also detected for nitrate, ammonium, potassium, phosphate, acetate and formate which appear to be related to the agricultural growing season. Based on simultaneous measurements of gas phase ammonia and ammonium in the fog samples, significant deviations from equilibrium were found. In low pH samples, ammonium concentrations were much lower than equilibrium predicts, while the opposite occurred in high pH samples. Modeling suggested that mass transfer limitations contributed to the departure from equilibrium. Similarly, predictions of bicarbonate concentrations based on equilibrium with gas phase carbon dioxide appears to underestimate the actual amount of bicarbonate present in samples collected during this study.

  5. Recent Trends in Theory Use and Application within the Project Management Discipline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathan Johnson

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The following paper highlights the theories used to further project management (PM research spanning the 15 year time period of 1999-2013. The analysis examined 273 articles drawn from seven widely recognized PM journals with the aim of uncovering the most utilized theories in the discipline’s academic investigations. The review found these theories to be: Stakeholder Theory (ST, Fuzzy Sets Theory (FST, Utility Theory (UT, Theory of Constraints (TOC, and Actor-Network Theory (ANT. This collection of theories represents a diverse group of thought constituting a large portion of the PM literature’s theoretical foundations. Both UT and TOC have diminished in popularity while ANT and ST have improved in favor; FST has remained consistent in its use. The appendix to this manuscript includes a “ready reference” of all the theories utilized in PM research found within the reviewed journal outlets from the 15 year review period.

  6. Impact of mining projects on the socio-economics of the region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rao, K.R.; Yerpude, R.R.

    1994-01-01

    Mining of mineral deposits, if exploited economically, would generate prospects of significant employment of non-inflationary nature, in developing countries. Exploitation of remotely located mineral deposits contributes in developing inaccessible regions thereby improving socio-economics of the region benefiting the local inhabitants and supplementing the efforts towards national integration. However, an indifferent attitude of the project management towards environment and welfare of local population will result in clash of interests and perpetual litigations which not only impede progress of the project but also lead to law and order problems. A precondition for successful implementation of any project is to understand the possible impact it has, on the socio-economics of the region and educate the local inhabitants to derive optimum advantage from the project. In this paper, two cases of mining projects, one located remotely and the other close to a well developed city are studied and their impact on the socio-economics of the respective regions is presented. 5 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab

  7. Projected impacts of climate change on regional capacities for global plant species richness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sommer, Jan Henning; Kreft, Holger; Kier, Gerold; Jetz, Walter; Mutke, Jens; Barthlott, Wilhelm

    2010-08-07

    Climate change represents a major challenge to the maintenance of global biodiversity. To date, the direction and magnitude of net changes in the global distribution of plant diversity remain elusive. We use the empirical multi-variate relationships between contemporary water-energy dynamics and other non-climatic predictor variables to model the regional capacity for plant species richness (CSR) and its projected future changes. We find that across all analysed Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios, relative changes in CSR increase with increased projected temperature rise. Between now and 2100, global average CSR is projected to remain similar to today (+0.3%) under the optimistic B1/+1.8 degrees C scenario, but to decrease significantly (-9.4%) under the 'business as usual' A1FI/+4.0 degrees C scenario. Across all modelled scenarios, the magnitude and direction of CSR change are geographically highly non-uniform. While in most temperate and arctic regions, a CSR increase is expected, the projections indicate a strong decline in most tropical and subtropical regions. Countries least responsible for past and present greenhouse gas emissions are likely to incur disproportionately large future losses in CSR, whereas industrialized countries have projected moderate increases. Independent of direction, we infer that all changes in regional CSR will probably induce on-site species turnover and thereby be a threat to native floras.

  8. Sampling design for long-term regional trends in marine rocky intertidal communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irvine, Gail V.; Shelley, Alice

    2013-01-01

    Probability-based designs reduce bias and allow inference of results to the pool of sites from which they were chosen. We developed and tested probability-based designs for monitoring marine rocky intertidal assemblages at Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve (GLBA), Alaska. A multilevel design was used that varied in scale and inference. The levels included aerial surveys, extensive sampling of 25 sites, and more intensive sampling of 6 sites. Aerial surveys of a subset of intertidal habitat indicated that the original target habitat of bedrock-dominated sites with slope ≤30° was rare. This unexpected finding illustrated one value of probability-based surveys and led to a shift in the target habitat type to include steeper, more mixed rocky habitat. Subsequently, we evaluated the statistical power of different sampling methods and sampling strategies to detect changes in the abundances of the predominant sessile intertidal taxa: barnacles Balanomorpha, the mussel Mytilus trossulus, and the rockweed Fucus distichus subsp. evanescens. There was greatest power to detect trends in Mytilus and lesser power for barnacles and Fucus. Because of its greater power, the extensive, coarse-grained sampling scheme was adopted in subsequent years over the intensive, fine-grained scheme. The sampling attributes that had the largest effects on power included sampling of “vertical” line transects (vs. horizontal line transects or quadrats) and increasing the number of sites. We also evaluated the power of several management-set parameters. Given equal sampling effort, sampling more sites fewer times had greater power. The information gained through intertidal monitoring is likely to be useful in assessing changes due to climate, including ocean acidification; invasive species; trampling effects; and oil spills.

  9. 2017 NMC Technology Outlook for Nordic Schools A Horizon Project Regional Report

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2017-01-01

    research effort between the New Media Consortium (NMC) and the Norwegian Centre for ICT in Education to inform Nordic school leaders and decision-makers about significant developments in technologies supporting teaching, learning, and creative inquiry in primary and secondary education across Denmark......Adams Becker, S., Cummins, M., Freeman, A., and Rose, K. (2017). 2017 NMC Technology Outlook for Nordic Schools: A Horizon Project Regional Report. Austin, Texas: The New Media Consortium. The 2017 NMC Technology Outlook for Nordic Schools: A Horizon Project Regional Report reflects a collaborative...

  10. The regional (Europe) project on study of energy options using the IAEA planning methodologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Molina, P.

    1997-01-01

    As a means to assist developing IAEA Member States in the Europe region in the broad area of energy, electricity and nuclear power planning, a new project has been implemented as part of the IAEA Technical Cooperation Programme. This paper describes the major objectives of this regional TC project and the activities to be organized in order to provide the required assistance. Focus is made on the present workshop and the current activities sponsored by the IAEA for further developments of the IAEA planning tools for energy, electricity and nuclear power planning with emphasis on the Energy and Power Evaluation Program (ENPEP) and the Wien Automatic System Planning (WASP) packages. (author)

  11. The regional (Europe) project on study of energy options using the IAEA planning methodologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Molina, P [Division of Nuclear Power, International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna (Austria)

    1997-09-01

    As a means to assist developing IAEA Member States in the Europe region in the broad area of energy, electricity and nuclear power planning, a new project has been implemented as part of the IAEA Technical Cooperation Programme. This paper describes the major objectives of this regional TC project and the activities to be organized in order to provide the required assistance. Focus is made on the present workshop and the current activities sponsored by the IAEA for further developments of the IAEA planning tools for energy, electricity and nuclear power planning with emphasis on the Energy and Power Evaluation Program (ENPEP) and the Wien Automatic System Planning (WASP) packages. (author).

  12. Trends and Projected Estimates of GHG Emissions from Indian Livestock in Comparisons with GHG Emissions from World and Developing Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amlan Kumar Patra

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This study presents trends and projected estimates of methane and nitrous oxide emissions from livestock of India vis-à-vis world and developing countries over the period 1961 to 2010 estimated based on IPCC guidelines. World enteric methane emission (EME increased by 54.3% (61.5 to 94.9 ×109 kg annually from the year 1961 to 2010, and the highest annual growth rate (AGR was noted for goat (2.0%, followed by buffalo (1.57% and swine (1.53%. Global EME is projected to increase to 120×109 kg by 2050. The percentage increase in EME by Indian livestock was greater than world livestock (70.6% vs 54.3% between the years 1961 to 2010, and AGR was highest for goat (1.91%, followed by buffalo (1.55%, swine (1.28%, sheep (1.25% and cattle (0.70%. In India, total EME was projected to grow by 18.8×109 kg in 2050. Global methane emission from manure (MEM increased from 6.81 ×109 kg in 1961 to 11.4×109 kg in 2010 (an increase of 67.6%, and is projected to grow to 15×109 kg by 2050. In India, the annual MEM increased from 0.52×109 kg to 1.1×109 kg (with an AGR of 1.57% in this period, which could increase to 1.54×109 kg in 2050. Nitrous oxide emission from manure in India could be 21.4×106 kg in 2050 from 15.3×106 kg in 2010. The AGR of global GHG emissions changed a small extent (only 0.11% from developed countries, but increased drastically (1.23% for developing countries between the periods of 1961 to 2010. Major contributions to world GHG came from cattle (79.3%, swine (9.57% and sheep (7.40%, and for developing countries from cattle (68.3%, buffalo (13.7% and goat (5.4%. The increase of GHG emissions by Indian livestock was less (74% vs 82% over the period of 1961 to 2010 than the developing countries. With this trend, world GHG emissions could reach 3,520×109 kg CO2-eq by 2050 due to animal population growth driven by increased demands for meat and dairy products in the world.

  13. HIV Viral Load Trends in Six Eastern Caribbean Countries Utilizing a Regional Laboratory Referral Service: Implications for Treatment as Prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landis, R Clive; Carmichael-Simmons, Kelly; Hambleton, Ian R; Best, Anton

    2015-01-01

    Since 2009, seven countries in the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS), Antigua & Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, Montserrat, St. Kitts & Nevis, Saint Lucia, and St. Vincent & the Grenadines, have been utilizing a laboratory referral service for HIV-1 viral load (VL) offered by The Ladymeade Reference Unit (LRU) Laboratory, Barbados. The objective of this study was to evaluate 5 year VL trends in the six larger OECS countries participating in this regional referral service. Blood samples were collected in source countries and transported to Barbados as frozen plasma according to a standardized protocol. Plasma specimens were amplified by RT PCR on a Roche TaqMan 48 analyser (Roche Diagnostics, Panama City, Panama). VL was considered optimally suppressed below a threshold level of < 200 HIV-1 copies/mL of blood. The same threshold was used as a binary indicator in an analysis of the secular change in VL suppression. Montserrat was excluded due to insufficient number of samples. A steady rise in VL referrals from OECS countries was recorded, rising from 312 samples in 2009 to 1,060 samples in 2013. A total of 3,543 samples were tested, with a sample rejection rate (9.2%) mostly due to breaks in the cold chain. Aggregate VL data showed the odds of VL suppression in the Eastern Caribbean improved by 66% for each additional year after 2009 (Odds Ratio 1.66 [95% CI 1.46 to 1.88]; p<0.001). We demonstrate the feasibility of establishing a regional laboratory referral service for HIV VL monitoring in the Eastern Caribbean. Aggregate VL trends showed a significant year-on-year improvement in VL suppression, implying public health benefits through treatment as prevention in the OECS. VL provides a powerful monitoring & evaluation tool for strengthening HIV programs at country level among the small island states participating in this regional referral network.

  14. HIV Viral Load Trends in Six Eastern Caribbean Countries Utilizing a Regional Laboratory Referral Service: Implications for Treatment as Prevention.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R Clive Landis

    Full Text Available Since 2009, seven countries in the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS, Antigua & Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, Montserrat, St. Kitts & Nevis, Saint Lucia, and St. Vincent & the Grenadines, have been utilizing a laboratory referral service for HIV-1 viral load (VL offered by The Ladymeade Reference Unit (LRU Laboratory, Barbados. The objective of this study was to evaluate 5 year VL trends in the six larger OECS countries participating in this regional referral service.Blood samples were collected in source countries and transported to Barbados as frozen plasma according to a standardized protocol. Plasma specimens were amplified by RT PCR on a Roche TaqMan 48 analyser (Roche Diagnostics, Panama City, Panama. VL was considered optimally suppressed below a threshold level of < 200 HIV-1 copies/mL of blood. The same threshold was used as a binary indicator in an analysis of the secular change in VL suppression. Montserrat was excluded due to insufficient number of samples.A steady rise in VL referrals from OECS countries was recorded, rising from 312 samples in 2009 to 1,060 samples in 2013. A total of 3,543 samples were tested, with a sample rejection rate (9.2% mostly due to breaks in the cold chain. Aggregate VL data showed the odds of VL suppression in the Eastern Caribbean improved by 66% for each additional year after 2009 (Odds Ratio 1.66 [95% CI 1.46 to 1.88]; p<0.001.We demonstrate the feasibility of establishing a regional laboratory referral service for HIV VL monitoring in the Eastern Caribbean. Aggregate VL trends showed a significant year-on-year improvement in VL suppression, implying public health benefits through treatment as prevention in the OECS. VL provides a powerful monitoring & evaluation tool for strengthening HIV programs at country level among the small island states participating in this regional referral network.

  15. Demographic trends in the Lodz region and their implications for seniors 50+

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jolanta Woźnica

    2014-12-01

    Simultaneously, due to declining birth rates, prolongation of human life and emigration, especially young people, are progressing aging of the population, including labor resources. It is already a serious problem is the high proportion of economically inactive older people , and also low rates of labor force participation and employment. Shaped so the situation there is a need to take action at the regional level, aimed at creating conditions for continuation of work for persons having a retirement age through measures to improve the functioning of the working environment of older people.

  16. Tribal Grant Program Area Polygons with Project Officer and Tribal Contact Information, US EPA Region 9, 2015, Regional Tribal Operations Committee

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This dataset contains information pertaining to EPA Region 9 project officers and their areas of oversight, EPA Region 9 grant program recipients and grant types,...

  17. The paradox of cooling streams in a warming world: Regional climate trends do not parallel variable local trends in stream temperature in the Pacific continental United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri; Dunham, Jason B.; Haggerty, Roy; Hockman-Wert, David

    2012-01-01

    Temperature is a fundamentally important driver of ecosystem processes in streams. Recent warming of terrestrial climates around the globe has motivated concern about consequent increases in stream temperature. More specifically, observed trends of increasing air temperature and declining stream flow are widely believed to result in corresponding increases in stream temperature. Here, we examined the evidence for this using long-term stream temperature data from minimally and highly human-impacted sites located across the Pacific continental United States. Based on hypothesized climate impacts, we predicted that we should find warming trends in the maximum, mean and minimum temperatures, as well as increasing variability over time. These predictions were not fully realized. Warming trends were most prevalent in a small subset of locations with longer time series beginning in the 1950s. More recent series of observations (1987-2009) exhibited fewer warming trends and more cooling trends in both minimally and highly human-influenced systems. Trends in variability were much less evident, regardless of the length of time series. Based on these findings, we conclude that our perspective of climate impacts on stream temperatures is clouded considerably by a lack of long-termdata on minimally impacted streams, and biased spatio-temporal representation of existing time series. Overall our results highlight the need to develop more mechanistic, process-based understanding of linkages between climate change, other human impacts and stream temperature, and to deploy sensor networks that will provide better information on trends in stream temperatures in the future.

  18. Average regional end-use energy price projections to the year 2030

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-01-01

    The energy prices shown in this report cover the period from 1991 through 2030. These prices reflect sector/fuel price projections from the Annual Energy Outlook 1991 (AEO) base case, developed using the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS) forecasting model. Projections through 2010 are AEO base case forecasts. Projections for the period from 2011 through 2030 were developed separately from the AEO for this report, and the basis for these projections is described in Chapter 3. Projections in this report include average energy prices for each of four Census Regions for the residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation end-use sectors. Energy sources include electricity, distillate fuel oil, liquefied petroleum gas, motor gasoline, residual fuel oil, natural gas, and steam coal. (VC)

  19. Effects of runoff sensitivity and catchment characteristics on regional actual evapotranspiration trends in the conterminous US

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, Il Won; Chang, Heejun; Risley, John

    2013-01-01

    An understanding of the role of hydro-climatic and geographic regimes on regional actual evapotranspiration (AET) change is essential to improving our knowledge on predicting water availability in a changing climate. This study investigates the relationship between AET change for a 60 year period (1951–2010) and the runoff sensitivity in 255 undisturbed catchments over the US. The runoff sensitivity to climate change is simply defined as the relative magnitude between runoff and precipitation changes with time. Runoff sensitivity can readily explain the conflicting directions of AET changes under similar precipitation change. Under increasing precipitation, AET decreases when runoff is increasing more rapidly than precipitation based on the water balance. Conversely, AET increases when runoff is decreasing more rapidly than precipitation. This result indicates that runoff sensitivity to climate change is a key factor for understanding regional water availability change at the catchment scale. In addition, a stepwise multiple regression analysis and a geographically weighted regression analysis show that the portion of evergreen forest and the mean elevation of a catchment may play a secondary role in the spatial pattern of the AET change, and the relative importance of such explanatory variables may change over space. (letter)

  20. A probabilistic method for streamflow projection and associated uncertainty analysis in a data sparse alpine region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Weiwei; Yang, Tao; Shi, Pengfei; Xu, Chong-yu; Zhang, Ke; Zhou, Xudong; Shao, Quanxi; Ciais, Philippe

    2018-06-01

    Climate change imposes profound influence on regional hydrological cycle and water security in many alpine regions worldwide. Investigating regional climate impacts using watershed scale hydrological models requires a large number of input data such as topography, meteorological and hydrological data. However, data scarcity in alpine regions seriously restricts evaluation of climate change impacts on water cycle using conventional approaches based on global or regional climate models, statistical downscaling methods and hydrological models. Therefore, this study is dedicated to development of a probabilistic model to replace the conventional approaches for streamflow projection. The probabilistic model was built upon an advanced Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) approach directly fed by the large-scale climate predictor variables and tested in a typical data sparse alpine region, the Kaidu River basin in Central Asia. Results show that BNN model performs better than the general methods across a number of statistical measures. The BNN method with flexible model structures by active indicator functions, which reduce the dependence on the initial specification for the input variables and the number of hidden units, can work well in a data limited region. Moreover, it can provide more reliable streamflow projections with a robust generalization ability. Forced by the latest bias-corrected GCM scenarios, streamflow projections for the 21st century under three RCP emission pathways were constructed and analyzed. Briefly, the proposed probabilistic projection approach could improve runoff predictive ability over conventional methods and provide better support to water resources planning and management under data limited conditions as well as enable a facilitated climate change impact analysis on runoff and water resources in alpine regions worldwide.

  1. Greenhouse gas emission trends and projections in Europe 2012. Tracking progress towards Kyoto and 2020 targets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gores, S.; Scheffler, M.; Graichen, V. [Oeko-Institut (Oeko), Freiburg (Germany)] [and others

    2012-10-15

    At the end of 2011, almost all European countries were on track towards their Kyoto targets for 2008-2012. The EU-15 also remained on track to achieve its Kyoto target. Italy, however, was not on track. Spain plans to acquire a large quantity of Kyoto units through the KP's flexible mechanisms to achieve its target. With emission caps already set for the economic sectors under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), emissions reductions during 2012 in the sectors outside the EU ETS together with reductions by carbon sinks will set the frame for how many Kyoto units Member States need to acquire to reach their individual targets. Hence, both the development and delivery of adequate plans to acquire enough Kyoto credits is becoming increasingly important. ETS emissions from 2008 to 2011 were on average 5 % below these caps, which results in an oversupply of allowances. The EU ETS is undergoing important changes in view of the third trading phase from 2013 to 2020. Most EU Member States project that in 2020, their emissions outside the EU ETS will be lower than their national targets set under the Climate and Energy Package. However, further efforts will be necessary to achieve longer term reductions. (Author)

  2. Global projections of 21st century land-use changes in regions adjacent to Protected Areas.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linda J Beaumont

    Full Text Available The conservation efficiency of Protected Areas (PA is influenced by the health and characteristics of the surrounding landscape matrix. Fragmentation of adjacent lands interrupts ecological flows within PAs and will decrease the ability of species to shift their distribution as climate changes. For five periods across the 21(st century, we assessed changes to the extent of primary land, secondary land, pasture and crop land projected to occur within 50 km buffers surrounding IUCN-designated PAs. Four scenarios of land-use were obtained from the Land-Use Harmonization Project, developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5. The scenarios project the continued decline of primary lands within buffers surrounding PAs. Substantial losses are projected to occur across buffer regions in the tropical forest biomes of Indo-Malayan and the Temperate Broadleaf forests of the Nearctic. A number of buffer regions are projected to have negligible primary land remaining by 2100, including those in the Afrotropic's Tropical/Subtropical Grassland/Savanna/Shrubland. From 2010-2050, secondary land is projected to increase within most buffer regions, although, as with pasture and crops within tropical and temperate forests, projections from the four land-use scenarios may diverge substantially in magnitude and direction of change. These scenarios demonstrate a range of alternate futures, and show that although effective mitigation strategies may reduce pressure on land surrounding PAs, these areas will contain an increasingly heterogeneous matrix of primary and human-modified landscapes. Successful management of buffer regions will be imperative to ensure effectiveness of PAs and to facilitate climate-induced shifts in species ranges.

  3. Increasing trends in rainfall-runoff erosivity in the Source Region of the Three Rivers, 1961-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yousheng; Cheng, Congcong; Xie, Yun; Liu, Baoyuan; Yin, Shuiqing; Liu, Yingna; Hao, Yanfang

    2017-08-15

    As the head source of the two longest rivers in China and the longest river in Southeast Asia, the East Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) is experiencing increasing thaw snowmelt and more heavy precipitation events under global warming, which might lead to soil erosion risk. To understand the potential driving force of soil erosion and its relationship with precipitation in the context of climate change, this study analyzed long-term variations in annual rainfall-runoff erosivity, a climatic index of soil erosion, by using the Mann-Kendall statistical test and Theil and Sen's approach in the Source Region of the Three Rivers during 1961-2012. The results showed the followings: (i) increasing annual rainfall-runoff erosivity was observed over the past 52years, with a mean relative trend index (RT 1 ) value of 12.1%. The increasing trend was more obvious for the latest two decades: RT 1 was nearly three times larger than that over the entire period; (ii) more precipitation events and a higher precipitation amount were the major forces for the increasing rainfall-runoff erosivity; (iii) similar rising trends in sediment yields, which corresponded to rainfall-runoff erosivity under slightly increasing vegetation coverage in the study area, implied a large contribution of rainfall-runoff erosivity to the increasing sediment yields; and (iv) high warming rates increased the risk of soil destruction, soil erosion and sediment yields. Conservation measures, such as enclosing grassland, returning grazing land to grassland and rotation grazing since the 1980s, have maintained vegetation coverage and should be continued and strengthened. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Southeast Regional Wastewater Treatment Plant Facilities Improvements Project and Geysers Effluent Pipeline Project. Final EIR/EIS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    On May 26, 1994, the Lake County Sanitation District and the US Bureau of Land Management released for public review a Draft Environmental Impact Report/Environmental Impact Statement (EIR/EIS) on the proposed Southeast Regional Wastewater Treatment Plant Facilities Improvements Project and Geysers Effluent Pipeline Project. A minimum 45-day review and comment period began on that date and notices were published in the Federal Register. The public review and comment period closed on July 26, 1994. Public hearings on the Draft EIMIS were held in Lakeport, CA, on June 30 and July 14, 1994. The first part of this document contains copies of the written comments submitted on the Draft EIR/EIS. It also contains summary paraphrased comments of the public hearings. The second part of this document contains responses to the comments

  5. 7 CFR Guide 1 to Subpart G of... - Project Management Agreement Between the ____ Regional Commission and the Farmers Home...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 13 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Project Management Agreement Between the ____ Regional... Guide 1 to Subpart G of Part 1942—Project Management Agreement Between the ____ Regional Commission and... successor agency under Public Law 103-354, in concurring to this Project Management Agreement, hereby...

  6. Do we need regional guidelines for breast cancer management in the MENA region? MENA Breast Cancer Guidelines project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fayed, Reham; Hamza, Dina; Abdallah, Heba; Kelany, Mohamed; Tahseen, Amira; Aref, Adel T

    2017-01-01

    Breast cancer is the most common cancer among females worldwide in general and in the Middle East and the North African region (MENA region) in particular. Management of breast cancer in the MENA region faces a lot of challenges, which include younger age at presentation, aggressive behaviour, lack of national breast screening programmes and lack of reliable data registries as well as socioeconomic factors. These factors make applying the international guidelines for breast cancer management very challenging. The aim of this project is to explore the need for a regional breast cancer guideline as well as to screen the clinical practice of breast cancer management in the MENA region. Three web-based designed surveys were sent to more than 600 oncologists in the MENA region from the period of August 2013 to October 2014. Full descriptive data and information regarding the application of international breast cancer guidelines were collected. The software was using the IP address to prevent duplication of collected data. Descriptive analysis and results were shown as numbers and percentages. During the period of the survey, 104 oncologists responded, representing around an 11% response rate. The majority of replies came from Egypt (59 responses (59%)), followed by Saudi Arabia (ten responses (9.6%)). Fifty-one per cent of responders had more than ten years of experience, and further 31.7% had 5-10 years of experience. Seventy-four per cent were working in governmental hospitals, which is our target sector. There was a major defect in having a genetic counsel unit (78.8% declared an absence of this service), presence of a national breast screening programme (55.8% declared an absence of this service), performing sentinel lymph node biopsy (43.3% declared an absence of this service). The need for regional guidelines for the management of breast cancer was agreed upon by 90.6% of responders. There is a clear need to improve the management of breast cancer in the MENA

  7. Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2013: Market Trends and Projections to 2018

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-06-01

    The global oil market will undergo sweeping changes over the next five years. The 2013 Medium-Term Oil Market Report evaluates the impact of these changes on the global oil system by 2018 based on all that we know today – current expectations of economic growth, existing or announced policies and regulations, commercially proven technologies, field decline rates, investment programmes (upstream, midstream and downstream), etc. The five-year forecast period corresponds to the length of the typical investment cycle and as such is critical to policymakers and market participants. This Report shows, in detailed but concise terms, why the ongoing North American hydrocarbon revolution is a ''game changer''. The region’s expected contribution to supply growth, however impressive, is only part of the story: Crude quality, infrastructure requirements, current regulations, and the potential for replication elsewhere are bound to spark a chain reaction that will leave few links in the global oil supply chain unaffected. While North America is expected to lead medium-term supply growth, the East-of- Suez region is in the lead on the demand side. Non-OECD oil demand, led by Asia and the Middle East, looks set to overtake the OECD for the first time as early as 2Q13 and will widen its lead afterwards. Non-OECD economies are already home to over half global refining capacity. With that share only expected to grow by 2018, the non-OECD region will be firmly entrenched as the world’s largest crude importer. These and other changes are carefully laid out in this Report, which also examines recent and future changes in global oil storage, shifts in OPEC production capacity and crude and product trade, and the consequences of the ongoing refinery construction boom in emerging markets and developing economies. It is required reading for anyone engaged in policy or investment decision-making in the energy sphere, and those more broadly interested in the oil

  8. Status and trends of nuclear technologies - Report of the International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-09-01

    The International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO) was launched in the year 2000, based on a resolution by the IAEA General Conference (GC(44)/RES/21). INPRO intends to help to ensure that nuclear energy is available in the 21st century in a sustainable manner, and seeks to bring together all interested Member States, both technology holders and technology users, to consider, jointly, actions to achieve desired innovations. INPRO is taking care of the specific needs of developing countries. This IAEA publication is part of Phase 1 of INPRO. It intends to provide an overview on history, present situation and future perspectives of nuclear fuel cycle technologies. While this overview focuses on technical issues, nevertheless, the aspects of economics, environment, and safety and proliferation resistance are important background issues for this study. After a brief description about the INPRO project and an evaluation of existing and future reactor designs the publication covers nuclear fuel cycle issues in detail. It is expected that this documentation will provide IAEA Member States and their nuclear engineers and designers, as well as policy makers with useful information on status and trends of future nuclear fuel cycle technologies. Due to the size of the full report it was decided to create a summary of the information and attach a CD-ROM in the back of this summary report with the full text of the report

  9. Projections of the Population of the Republic of Croatia to the Year 2031: Can Migration Alleviate Future Negative Trends?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Snježana Mrđen

    2004-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents middle duration projections of Croatia’s population, until the year 2031, determined via the cohort-component method. It outlines eight variants derived from supposed hypotheses in regard to changing birth, migration and death rates. Differences in the variants are exclusively differences in birth and migration rates, since the assumptions in regard to the death rates are the same in all the variants. The corrected estimate of the population on January 1st 2001, according to the most recent census, served as the base population. The results of the projections indicate that in the next thirty years the overall and the natural population reduction of Croatia will continue, and at the end of the period (2031 the population will be demographically older than at the start (2001. The variants differ only in relation to the intensity (i.e. swiftness of the aging process, yet the direction remains the same. Thus, in the variant that assumes a positive migration balance, the process of aging would be somewhat slower. The only variant that assumes a constant proportion of young people (on the 2001 level, gradual demographic growth and at the end of the period a larger population than in 2001, is the variant based on a high birth rate and positive migration. The impact of migration is very important for future demographic processes. Namely, in the short run, migration cannot change the direction of demographic processes, but it can lessen already existing negative trends.

  10. Interpreting time trends and biomagnification of PCBs in the Baltic region using the equilibrium lipid partitioning approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nfon, Erick; Cousins, Ian T.

    2006-01-01

    Multi-year monitoring data for PCBs in abiotic media and biota collected from the Baltic region were compiled into a database and analyzed using the equilibrium lipid partitioning (ELP) approach to study temporal trends as well as to investigate food web biomagnification. Statistically significant reductions in ELP concentrations between 1987 and 2001 were observed in guillemots, air, and some fish species and a general, but not always statistically significant decline in concentrations was observed throughout the Baltic ecosystem. Estimated clearance half-lives ranged from 2.7-10.7 years. The database contained concentrations for a range of different Baltic species, which comprise a well-known Baltic food web. It was possible to derive the trophic position of the species in this food web and relate them to ELP concentrations. A significant positive correlation between ELP concentrations and trophic position was obtained. Estimated food web magnification factors ranged between 1.9 and 5.1 for selected congeners. - The equilibrium lipid partitioning approach is applied to a large Baltic database of PCB concentrations in abiotic and biota media to investigate time trends and biomagnification

  11. Trends in summer chemistry linked to productivity in lakes recovering from acid deposition in the Adirondack region of New York

    Science.gov (United States)

    Momen, B.; Lawrence, G.B.; Nierzwicki-Bauer, S. A.; Sutherland, J.W.; Eichler, L.W.; Harrison, J.P.; Boylen, C.W.

    2006-01-01

    The US Environmental Protection Agency established the Adirondack Effects Assessment Program (AEAP) to evaluate and monitor the status of biological communities in lakes in the Adirondack region of New York that have been adversely affected by acid deposition. This program includes chemical analysis of 30 lakes, sampled two to three times each summer. Results of trends analysis for lake chemistry and chlorophyll a (chlor a) are presented for 1994 to 2003, and a general comparison is made with recent results of the Adirondack Long-Term Monitoring (ALTM) Program, which included chemical analysis of all but two of these lakes (plus an additional 24 lakes) monthly, year-round for 1992-2004. Increases in pH were found in 25 of the 30 AEAP lakes (P level of P level of P level of P level of P level of P chemistry were similar to those of the ALTM Program, although decreases in SO 42- concentrations were more evident in the year-round ALTM record. Overall, the results suggest (a) a degree of chemical recovery from acidification during the summer, (b) an increase in phytoplankton productivity, and (c) a decreasing trend in NO 3- concentrations resulting from the increased productivity. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media, Inc.

  12. Medium-Term Gas Market Report 2013: Market Trends and Projections to 2018

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-06-01

    Global growth in natural gas use slowed measurably in 2012, although it still exceeded that of oil and total energy use. Among the headwinds facing gas are continuing weak demand in Europe, resilience of coal in North America as well as persistent bottlenecks and disruptions in the LNG value chain that in 2012 caused an exceptional global decline of LNG supply. At the same time, Asian demand for gas remains red-hot, and gas is beginning to gain traction as a transport fuel. The IEA new Medium-Term Gas Market Report provides a detailed analysis of demand, upstream investment and trade developments through 2018 that will shape the gas industry and the role of gas in the global energy system. Its special sections investigate the economic viability of gas-fired power generation in Europe, the prospects for an LNG trading hub in Asia as well as the potentially transformational role of natural gas in transport. Amid a continuous regional divergence between North American abundance, European weakness and Asian thirst for LNG, the 2013 Medium Term Gas Market Report will investigate the key questions that the gas industry faces. These include the prospect of the United States becoming a major gas exporter, the challenges of securing enough gas to meet China’s growth, and the ability of Russian gas – spurred both by weak EU demand and resurgent domestic production – to find its manifest destiny in Asia.

  13. Trends over time in tree and seedling phylogenetic diversity indicate regional differences in forest biodiversity change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potter, Kevin M; Woodall, Christopher W

    2012-03-01

    Changing climate conditions may impact the short-term ability of forest tree species to regenerate in many locations. In the longer term, tree species may be unable to persist in some locations while they become established in new places. Over both time frames, forest tree biodiversity may change in unexpected ways. Using repeated inventory measurements five years apart from more than 7000 forested plots in the eastern United States, we tested three hypotheses: phylogenetic diversity is substantially different from species richness as a measure of biodiversity; forest communities have undergone recent changes in phylogenetic diversity that differ by size class, region, and seed dispersal strategy; and these patterns are consistent with expected early effects of climate change. Specifically, the magnitude of diversity change across broad regions should be greater among seedlings than in trees, should be associated with latitude and elevation, and should be greater among species with high dispersal capacity. Our analyses demonstrated that phylogenetic diversity and species richness are decoupled at small and medium scales and are imperfectly associated at large scales. This suggests that it is appropriate to apply indicators of biodiversity change based on phylogenetic diversity, which account for evolutionary relationships among species and may better represent community functional diversity. Our results also detected broadscale patterns of forest biodiversity change that are consistent with expected early effects of climate change. First, the statistically significant increase over time in seedling diversity in the South suggests that conditions there have become more favorable for the reproduction and dispersal of a wider variety of species, whereas the significant decrease in northern seedling diversity indicates that northern conditions have become less favorable. Second, we found weak correlations between seedling diversity change and latitude in both zones

  14. How many people will need palliative care in 2040? Past trends, future projections and implications for services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Etkind, S N; Bone, A E; Gomes, B; Lovell, N; Evans, C J; Higginson, I J; Murtagh, F E M

    2017-05-18

    Current estimates suggest that approximately 75% of people approaching the end-of-life may benefit from palliative care. The growing numbers of older people and increasing prevalence of chronic illness in many countries mean that more people may benefit from palliative care in the future, but this has not been quantified. The present study aims to estimate future population palliative care need in two high-income countries. We used mortality statistics for England and Wales from 2006 to 2014. Building on previous diagnosis-based approaches, we calculated age- and sex-specific proportions of deaths from defined chronic progressive illnesses to estimate the prevalence of palliative care need in the population. We calculated annual change over the 9-year period. Using explicit assumptions about change in disease prevalence over time, and official mortality forecasts, we modelled palliative care need up to 2040. We also undertook separate projections for dementia, cancer and organ failure. By 2040, annual deaths in England and Wales are projected to rise by 25.4% (from 501,424 in 2014 to 628,659). If age- and sex-specific proportions with palliative care needs remain the same as in 2014, the number of people requiring palliative care will grow by 25.0% (from 375,398 to 469,305 people/year). However, if the upward trend observed from 2006 to 2014 continues, the increase will be of 42.4% (161,842 more people/year, total 537,240). In addition, disease-specific projections show that dementia (increase from 59,199 to 219,409 deaths/year by 2040) and cancer (increase from 143,638 to 208,636 deaths by 2040) will be the main drivers of increased need. If recent mortality trends continue, 160,000 more people in England and Wales will need palliative care by 2040. Healthcare systems must now start to adapt to the age-related growth in deaths from chronic illness, by focusing on integration and boosting of palliative care across health and social care disciplines. Countries with

  15. Southeast regional and state trends in anuran occupancy from calling survey data (2001-2013) from the North American Amphibian Monitoring Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villena Carpio, Oswaldo; Royle, J. Andrew; Weir, Linda; Foreman, Tasha M.; Gazenski, Kimberly D.; Campbell Grant, Evan H.

    2016-01-01

    We present the first regional trends in anuran occupancy for eight states of the southeastern United States, based on 13 y (2001–2013) of North American Amphibian Monitoring Program (NAAMP) data. The NAAMP is a longterm monitoring program in which observers collect anuran calling observation data at fixed locations along random roadside routes. We assessed occupancy trends for 14 species. We found weak evidence for a general regional pattern of decline in calling anurans within breeding habitats along roads in the southeastern USA over the last 13 y. Two species had positive regional trends with 95% posterior intervals that did not include zero (Hyla cinerea and Pseudacris crucifer). Five other species also showed an increasing trend, while eight species showed a declining trend, although 95% posterior intervals included zero. We also assessed state level trends for 107 species/state combinations. Of these, 14 showed a significant decline and 12 showed a significant increase in occupancy (i.e., credible intervals did not include zero for these 26 trends).

  16. USDA/Regional Dairy Quality Management Alliance (RDQM) Project-2008 Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Regional Dairy Quality Management Alliance (RDQMA) research project has been underway for four years. We have so far been able to study best management practices on three dairy farms in the Northeast. ON these farms very precise data are collected with regard to the health status of the animals ...

  17. Projections of Heat Waves Events in the Intra-Americas Region Using Multimodel Ensemble

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moises Angeles-Malaspina

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Significant accelerated warming of the Sea Surface Temperature of 0.15°C per decade (1982–2012 was recently detected, which motivated the research for the present consequences and future projections on the heat index and heat waves in the intra-Americas region. Present records every six hours are retrieved from NCEP reanalysis (1948–2015 to calculate heat waves changes. Heat index intensification has been detected in the region since 1998 and driven by surface pressure changes, sinking air enhancement, and warm/weaker cold advection. This regional warmer atmosphere leads to heat waves intensification with changes in both frequency and maximum amplitude distribution. Future projections using a multimodel ensemble mean for five global circulation models were used to project heat waves in the future under two scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Massive heat waves events were projected at the end of the 21st century, particularly in the RCP8.5 scenario. Consequently, the regional climate change in the current time and in the future will require special attention to mitigate the more intense and frequent heat waves impacts on human health, countries’ economies, and energy demands in the IAR.

  18. Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance: evaluating simulations and making projections with regional climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rae, J.G.L.; Aðalgeirsdóttir, G.; Edwards, T.L.; Fettweis, X.; Gregory, J.M.; Hewitt, H.T.; Lowe, J.A.; Lucas-Picher, P.; Mottram, R.H.; Payne, A.J.; Ridley, J.K.; Shannon, S.R.; van de Berg, W.J.; van de Wal, R.S.W.; van den Broeke, M.R.

    2012-01-01

    Four high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs) have been set up for the area of Greenland, with the aim of providing future projections of Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB), and its contribution to sea level rise, with greater accuracy than is possible from coarser-resolution

  19. Regional trend of coal metamorphism in the major Gondwana basins of India

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mukherjee, A K; Alam, M M; Bunerjee, B

    1983-04-01

    The coal-bearing Gondwana sedimentaries are of great economic importance as they possess over 98% of coal resources of India. Within the Gondwana supergroup coal-bearing formations are confined in the Lower Gondwana sequence (Damuda group). The development of coal seams in the different basins were genetically related to the evolutionary pattern of each basin. The imprint of such diverse tectono-geomorphic conditions prevailing over the vast Peninsular Shield, and their regional impact in individual basins are well preserved in the different lithofacies of this thick-pile of sedimentary sequence. In fact constituting coal facies served as a sensitive recorder of the past episode enacted for long geological time span in each basin of the Gondwana grabens. In the present paper an attempt is made to incorporate the salient features of the operative processes in the major Gondwana basins with special reference to coal metamorphism. This has been done considering mass of analytical and sub-surface data available from the physico-chemical survey of coal seams of major coalfields, and extensive drilling operations carried out over the vast virgin tracts of important coalfields.

  20. Regional trends and controlling factors of fatal landslides in Latin America and the Caribbean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sepúlveda, S. A.; Petley, D. N.

    2015-04-01

    A database of landslides that caused loss of life in Latin America and the Caribbean in the period from 2004 and 2013 inclusive has been compiled using established techniques. This database indicates that in the ten year period a total of 11 631 people lost their lives across the region in 611 landslides. The geographical distribution of the landslides is very heterogeneous, with areas of high incidence in parts of the Caribbean (most notably Haiti), Central America, Colombia, and SE. Brazil. The number of landslides varies considerably between years; the El Niño/La Niña cycle emerges as a major factor controlling this variation, although the study period did not capture a large event. Analysis suggests that on a continental scale the mapped factors that best explain the observed distribution are topography, annual precipitation and population density. On a national basis we have compared the occurrence of fatality-inducing landslide occurrence with the production of research articles with a local author, which shows that there is a landslide research deficit in Latin America and the Caribbean. Understanding better the mechanisms, distributions causes and triggers of landslides in Latin America and the Caribbean must be an essential first step towards managing the hazard.

  1. Trend prognosis of regional ozone maxima in 1994 using various meteorologic data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loibl, W.

    1995-06-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop and test a statistical method for the short-term forecast of ozone concentrations. Austrian ozone monitoring data from April to September 1994 are used to develop the forecast model. It builds upon a multiple linear regression model developed earlier which uses the temperature of the forecast day, and the ozone maxima of the previous day as variables. In this study temperature difference between previous and forecast day, and wind velocity of the forecast day were additionally taken into account. Furthermore wind direction dependent regression models were developed using subsamples of the data set devided into 8 wind direction classes. Different regression function parameters have to be applied for each of the 40 selected ozone monitoring sites to allow forecasting of regional ozone maxima throughout Austria. It was found that regression models with temperature difference and wind velocity as additional variables did not improve the results. Wind direction dependent regression models only slightly improved the results for some wind directions at several monitoring sites. Best forecast results in general were achieved by using the base regression model with the temperature of the forecast day and the ozone maxima of the previous day as variables. Ozone forecast maps were calculated by spatial interpolation of the forecasted ozone maxima of the monitoring sites. Forecast accuracy is within ± 10 ppb on 70-80 % of the observed days. Errors higher than ± 10 ppb occur mainly on days with ozone maxima of 80 ppb and more. (author)

  2. Trend prognosis of regional ozone maxima in 1994 using various meteorologic data: appendix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loibl, W.

    1995-06-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop and test a statistical method for the short-term forecast of ozone concentrations. Austrian ozone monitoring data from April to September 1994 are used to develop the forecast model. It builds upon a multiple linear regression model developed earlier which uses the temperature of the forecast day, and the ozone maxima of the previous day as variables. In this study temperature difference between previous and forecast day, and wind velocity of the forecast day were additionally taken into account. Furthermore wind direction dependent regression models were developed using subsamples of the data set devided into 8 wind direction classes. Different regression function parameters have to be applied for each of the 40 selected ozone monitoring sites to allow forecasting of regional ozone maxima throughout Austria. It was found that regression models with temperature difference and wind velocity as additional variables did not improve the results. Wind direction dependent regression models only slightly improved the results for some wind directions at several monitoring sites. Best forecast results in general were achieved by using the base regression model with the temperature of the forecast day and the ozone maxima of the previous day as variables. Ozone forecast maps were calculated by spatial interpolation of the forecasted ozone maxima of the monitoring sites. Forecast accuracy is within ± 10 ppb on 70-80 % of the observed days. Errors higher than ± 10 ppb occur mainly on days with ozone maxima of 80 ppb and more. (author)

  3. The economic and social significance of RCA regional co-operative projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fowler, E.E.

    1979-01-01

    The regional Co-operative Agreement for Research, Development and Training Related to Nuclear Science and Technology (RCA) is an established and valuable instrument between the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Member States in South Asia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific or Far East for assisting in the transfer of modern technology to areas having economic and social importance to the region. The purpose of this review is to identify on-going or planned work which is designed to help achieve this goal. Currently approved RCA Regional Co-operative Research Projects are listed

  4. Trends in the educational gradient of mortality among US adults aged 45 to 84 years: bringing regional context into the explanation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montez, Jennifer Karas; Berkman, Lisa F

    2014-01-01

    We investigated trends in the educational gradient of US adult mortality, which has increased at the national level since the mid-1980s, within US regions. We used data from the 1986-2006 National Health Interview Survey Linked Mortality File on non-Hispanic White and Black adults aged 45 to 84 years (n = 498,517). We examined trends in the gradient within 4 US regions by race-gender subgroup by using age-standardized death rates. Trends in the gradient exhibited a few subtle regional differences. Among women, the gradient was often narrowest in the Northeast. The region's distinction grew over time mainly because low-educated women in the Northeast did not experience a significant increase in mortality like their counterparts in other regions (particularly for White women). Among White men, the gradient narrowed to a small degree in the West. The subtle regional differences indicate that geographic context can accentuate or suppress trends in the gradient. Studies of smaller areas may provide insights into the specific contextual characteristics (e.g., state tax policies) that have shaped the trends, and thus help explain and reverse the widening mortality disparities among US adults.

  5. Great Lakes O shore Wind Project: Utility and Regional Integration Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sajadi, Amirhossein [Case Western Reserve Univ., Cleveland, OH (United States); Loparo, Kenneth A. [Case Western Reserve Univ., Cleveland, OH (United States); D' Aquila, Robert [General Electric (GE), Albany, NY (United States); Clark, Kara [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Waligorski, Joseph G. [FirstEnergy, Akron, OH (United States); Baker, Scott [PJM Interconnection, Audubon, PA (United States)

    2016-06-30

    This project aims to identify transmission system upgrades needed to facilitate offshore wind projects as well as operational impacts of offshore generation on operation of the regional transmission system in the Great Lakes region. A simulation model of the US Eastern Interconnection was used as the test system as a case study for investigating the impact of the integration of a 1000MW offshore wind farm operating in Lake Erie into FirstEnergy/PJM service territory. The findings of this research provide recommendations on offshore wind integration scenarios, the locations of points of interconnection, wind profile modeling and simulation, and computational methods to quantify performance, along with operating changes and equipment upgrades needed to mitigate system performance issues introduced by an offshore wind project.

  6. Incorporating regional growth into forecasts of greenhouse gas emissions from project-level residential and commercial development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowangould, Dana; Eldridge, Melody; Niemeier, Deb

    2013-01-01

    To better understand the greenhouse gas (GHG) implications of land use planning decisions, regional planning organizations have developed tools to forecast the emissions from project-level residential and commercial development. This paper reviews the state of GHG emissions forecasting methods for project-level development. We argue that when forecasting changes in regional emissions it is important to make explicit what is assumed about a project′s effect on the population of residents and businesses in the region. We present five regional growth assumptions capturing the range of ways that project-level development might influence (i) construction and occupancy of similar developments elsewhere in a region and (ii) relocation of the initial activities that occur on-site before the project is built. We show that current forecasting tools inconsistently address the latter when they are interpreted as forecasted changes in regional emissions. Using a case study in Yolo County, California we demonstrate that forecasted changes in regional emissions are greatly affected by the regional growth assumption. In the absence of information about which regional growth assumption is accurate, we provide guidelines for selection of a conservative regional growth assumption. - Highlights: • Current tools inconsistently forecast GHG emissions from project-level development. • We outline five assumptions about how projects may affect regional growth. • Our assumptions capture a range of economic and population effects of projects. • Our case study shows that growth assumptions greatly affect regional GHG estimates. • We provide guidelines for selecting a conservative regional growth assumption

  7. Regional scale climatic trends derived from Younger Dryas glaciers in the U.K.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearce, D.; Rea, B. R.; Barr, I.; Small, D.; McDougall, D.

    2014-12-01

    In the U.K., the glacial geomorphological record has been utilised to infer paleo-glacier geometries and ice dynamics, with much of this work focussing on the Scottish Highlands during the Younger Dryas (YD; c. 12.9 - 11.7 ka BP). During the YD the West Highlands Ice-cap covered the majority of the Scottish Highlands (c. 13,000 sq mi), which is thought to have affected accumulation rates beyond the ice-cap margins, resulting in a steep (c. 80%) easterly decline in precipitation and smaller ice-masses. We present multi-proxy data investigating YD glaciation in the Tweedsmuir Hills, Southern Uplands, Scotland (55°46' N, 03°34' W), suggesting conditions were less arid. The area forms the most easterly upland region in the Southern Uplands and south of the West Highlands Ice-cap, reaching an altitude of 840 m and covering c. 200 sq mi. Results of air-photo interpretation and field mapping, which utilised a morphostratigraphic approach, have demonstrated a more extensive glaciation than previously mapped. The reconstruction consists of two separate icefields covering an area c. 40 sq mi. and new 14C dates of basal contact organics place the ice-mass within the context of the YD but new Cosmogenic Nuclide Analysis (CNA) of bedrock and in situ boulders are inconclusive, implying limited erosion and limited resetting during the YD. Equilibrium Line Altitudes are calculated to have ranged from c. 419 - 634 m. Paleo-precipitation values were derived using two precipitation-temperature relationships and suggest slightly lower totals than YD ice-masses located on the west coast of the U.K. but do not support a significant easterly reduction in precipitation. Analysis of present-day (c. 30 year) meteorological data across the U.K. demonstrates a pronounced reduction in precipitation of c. 50% on the east coast. This disparity between present-day and glacier-based YD precipitation patterns is partly attributable to the methodology employed in glacier reconstruction and

  8. SKS splitting results in central Italy and Dinaric region inside the AlpArray-CASE project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salimbeni, S.; Prevolnik, S.; Pondrelli, S.; Molinari, I.; Stipcevic, J.; Kissling, E.; Šipka, V.; Herak, M.

    2017-12-01

    In the framework of the AlpArray project (AlpArray Seismic Network, 2015), the complementary "Central Adriatic Seismic Experiment" (CASE; AlpArray Seismic Network, 2016) was established as collaboration between ETH Zürich, University of Zagreb, INGV and Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Republic of Srpska. The CASE project consists of 9 temporary stations, installed in October 2016, located in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia and Italy. Temporary broadband seismic stations, with the permanent stations present in the region shared by the Croatian Seismological Service and INGV, make an almost continuous transect cutting the Central-Southern Appenines, the central Adriatic region, central External Dinarides and finishing at the eastern margin of the Internal Dinarides. The presence of the the Apenninic and Dinarides slabs, verging in opposite directions and plunging along the opposite sides of the Adriatic plate, make this area a peculiar spot to understand the complex dynamic of the region. Various tomographic images (e.g. Bijwaard and Spakman, 2000; Piromallo and Morelli, 2003) shows not continuous slabs under the Appenines and the Dinarides, suggesting the presence of slab-gaps right beneath the region covered by the CASE experiment. Here we present the preliminary results of the SKS splitting analysis performed on the data recorded by the temporary and permanent seismic stations included in the CASE project. The new results, in combination with previous interpretation, will provide clues about how Northern and Southern Apennines are connected at depth, how the slab rollback of the Apennines thrust belt acted and if and how the Apennines are in relation with the Dinaric region. Together with the measurements from previous studies and from the AlpArray project, our new data will support the mapping of the seismic anisotropy deformation pattern from Western Alps to Pannonian region.

  9. Trends in child immunization across geographical regions in India: focus on urban-rural and gender differentials.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prashant Kumar Singh

    Full Text Available Although child immunization is regarded as a highly cost-effective lifesaver, about fifty percent of the eligible children aged 12-23 months in India are without essential immunization coverage. Despite several programmatic initiatives, urban-rural and gender difference in child immunization pose an intimidating challenge to India's public health agenda. This study assesses the urban-rural and gender difference in child immunization coverage during 1992-2006 across six major geographical regions in India.Three rounds of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS conducted during 1992-93, 1998-99 and 2005-06 were analyzed. Bivariate analyses, urban-rural and gender inequality ratios, and the multivariate-pooled logistic regression model were applied to examine the trends and patterns of inequalities over time.The analysis of change over one and half decades (1992-2006 shows considerable variations in child immunization coverage across six geographical regions in India. Despite a decline in urban-rural and gender differences over time, children residing in rural areas and girls remained disadvantaged. Moreover, northeast, west and south regions, which had the lowest gender inequality in 1992 observed an increase in gender difference over time. Similarly, urban-rural inequality increased in the west region during 1992-2006.This study suggests periodic evaluation of the health care system is vital to assess the between and within group difference beyond average improvement. It is essential to integrate strong immunization systems with broad health systems and coordinate with other primary health care delivery programs to augment immunization coverage.

  10. Trends in child immunization across geographical regions in India: focus on urban-rural and gender differentials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Prashant Kumar

    2013-01-01

    Although child immunization is regarded as a highly cost-effective lifesaver, about fifty percent of the eligible children aged 12-23 months in India are without essential immunization coverage. Despite several programmatic initiatives, urban-rural and gender difference in child immunization pose an intimidating challenge to India's public health agenda. This study assesses the urban-rural and gender difference in child immunization coverage during 1992-2006 across six major geographical regions in India. Three rounds of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) conducted during 1992-93, 1998-99 and 2005-06 were analyzed. Bivariate analyses, urban-rural and gender inequality ratios, and the multivariate-pooled logistic regression model were applied to examine the trends and patterns of inequalities over time. The analysis of change over one and half decades (1992-2006) shows considerable variations in child immunization coverage across six geographical regions in India. Despite a decline in urban-rural and gender differences over time, children residing in rural areas and girls remained disadvantaged. Moreover, northeast, west and south regions, which had the lowest gender inequality in 1992 observed an increase in gender difference over time. Similarly, urban-rural inequality increased in the west region during 1992-2006. This study suggests periodic evaluation of the health care system is vital to assess the between and within group difference beyond average improvement. It is essential to integrate strong immunization systems with broad health systems and coordinate with other primary health care delivery programs to augment immunization coverage.

  11. Development of Distributed Research Center for monitoring and projecting regional climatic and environmental changes: first results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordov, Evgeny; Shiklomanov, Alexander; Okladinikov, Igor; Prusevich, Alex; Titov, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    Description and first results of the cooperative project "Development of Distributed Research Center for monitoring and projecting of regional climatic and environmental changes" recently started by SCERT IMCES and ESRC UNH are reported. The project is aimed at development of hardware and software platform prototype of Distributed Research Center (DRC) for monitoring and projecting regional climatic and environmental changes over the areas of mutual interest and demonstration the benefits of such collaboration that complements skills and regional knowledge across the northern extratropics. In the framework of the project, innovative approaches of "cloud" processing and analysis of large geospatial datasets will be developed on the technical platforms of two U.S. and Russian leading institutions involved in research of climate change and its consequences. Anticipated results will create a pathway for development and deployment of thematic international virtual research centers focused on interdisciplinary environmental studies by international research teams. DRC under development will comprise best features and functionality of earlier developed by the cooperating teams' information-computational systems RIMS (http://rims.unh.edu) and CLIMATE(http://climate.scert.ru/), which are widely used in Northern Eurasia environment studies. The project includes several major directions of research (Tasks) listed below. 1. Development of architecture and defining major hardware and software components of DRC for monitoring and projecting of regional environmental changes. 2. Development of an information database and computing software suite for distributed processing and analysis of large geospatial data hosted at ESRC and IMCES SB RAS. 3. Development of geoportal, thematic web client and web services providing international research teams with an access to "cloud" computing resources at DRC; two options will be executed: access through a basic graphical web browser and

  12. Evaluating aggregate terrestrial impacts of road construction projects for advanced regional mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorne, James H; Girvetz, Evan H; McCoy, Michael C

    2009-05-01

    This study presents a GIS-based database framework used to assess aggregate terrestrial habitat impacts from multiple highway construction projects in California, USA. Transportation planners need such impact assessment tools to effectively address additive biological mitigation obligations. Such assessments can reduce costly delays due to protracted environmental review. This project incorporated the best available statewide natural resource data into early project planning and preliminary environmental assessments for single and multiple highway construction projects, and provides an assessment of the 10-year state-wide mitigation obligations for the California Department of Transportation. Incorporation of these assessments will facilitate early and more strategic identification of mitigation opportunities, for single-project and regional mitigation efforts. The data architecture format uses eight spatial scales: six nested watersheds, counties, and transportation planning districts, which were intersected. This resulted in 8058 map planning units statewide, which were used to summarize all subsequent analyses. Range maps and georeferenced locations of federally and state-listed plants and animals and a 55-class landcover map were spatially intersected with the planning units and the buffered spatial footprint of 967 funded projects. Projected impacts were summarized and output to the database. Queries written in the database can sum expected impacts and provide summaries by individual construction project, or by watershed, county, transportation district or highway. The data architecture allows easy incorporation of new information and results in a tool usable without GIS by a wide variety of agency biologists and planners. The data architecture format would be useful for other types of regional planning.

  13. Evaluating Aggregate Terrestrial Impacts of Road Construction Projects for Advanced Regional Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorne, James H.; Girvetz, Evan H.; McCoy, Michael C.

    2009-05-01

    This study presents a GIS-based database framework used to assess aggregate terrestrial habitat impacts from multiple highway construction projects in California, USA. Transportation planners need such impact assessment tools to effectively address additive biological mitigation obligations. Such assessments can reduce costly delays due to protracted environmental review. This project incorporated the best available statewide natural resource data into early project planning and preliminary environmental assessments for single and multiple highway construction projects, and provides an assessment of the 10-year state-wide mitigation obligations for the California Department of Transportation. Incorporation of these assessments will facilitate early and more strategic identification of mitigation opportunities, for single-project and regional mitigation efforts. The data architecture format uses eight spatial scales: six nested watersheds, counties, and transportation planning districts, which were intersected. This resulted in 8058 map planning units statewide, which were used to summarize all subsequent analyses. Range maps and georeferenced locations of federally and state-listed plants and animals and a 55-class landcover map were spatially intersected with the planning units and the buffered spatial footprint of 967 funded projects. Projected impacts were summarized and output to the database. Queries written in the database can sum expected impacts and provide summaries by individual construction project, or by watershed, county, transportation district or highway. The data architecture allows easy incorporation of new information and results in a tool usable without GIS by a wide variety of agency biologists and planners. The data architecture format would be useful for other types of regional planning.

  14. Southeast Regional Wastewater Treatment Plant Facilities Improvements Project and Geysers Effluent Pipeline Project. Draft EIR/EIS: Executive summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    The Southeast Regional Wastewater Treatment Plant (SERWTP) Facilities Improvement Plan and Geysers Effluent Pipeline and Effluent Injection Project are proposed as a plan to provide expanded wastewater treatment capabilities and to dispose of the effluent by injection in The Geysers geothermal field for purposes of power production. The project is located predominantly in the County of Lake, California, and also in part of Sonoma County. The plan includes various conventional facilities improvements in wastewater treatment to a secondary level of treatment at the SWERWTP. The plan includes facilities to convey the treated effluent in a 26-mile, 24-inch inside diameter pipeline to the Southeast Geysers. The wastewater from the SERWTP would be supplemented by raw lake water diverted from nearby Clear Lake. At The Geysers, the effluent would be directed into a system of distribution lines to wells. In the geothermal reservoir, the water will be converted to steam and collected in production wells that will direct the steam to six existing power plants. This document is a summary of a combined full Environmental Impact Report (EIR) and Environmental Impact Statement (EIS). The EIR/EIS describes the environmental impacts of the various components of the project. Mitigation measures are suggested for reducing impacts to a less than significant level

  15. Multi-model Ensemble Regional Climate Projection of the Maritime Continent using the MIT Regional Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, S.; IM, E. S.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

    2016-12-01

    In this study, the future change in precipitation due to global warming is investigated over the Maritime Continent using the MIT Regional Climate Model (MRCM). A total of nine 30-year projections under multi-GCMs (CCSM, MPI, ACCESS) and multi-scenarios of emissions (Control, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) are dynamically downscaled using the MRCM with 12km horizontal resolution. Since downscaled results tend to systematically overestimate the precipitation regardless of GCM used as lateral boundary conditions, the Parametric Quantile Mapping (PQM) is applied to reduce this wet bias. The cross validation for the control simulation shows that the PQM method seems to retain the spatial pattern and temporal variability of raw simulation, however it effectively reduce the wet bias. Based on ensemble projections produced by dynamical downscaling and statistical bias correction, a reduction of future precipitation is discernible, in particular during dry season (June-July-August). For example, intense precipitation in Singapore is expected to be reduced in RCP8.5 projection compared to control simulation. However, the geographical patterns and magnitude of changes still remain uncertain, suffering from statistical insignificance and a lack of model agreement. Acknowledgements This research is supported by the National Research Foundation Singapore under its Campus for Research Excellence and Technological Enterprise programme. The Center for Environmental Sensing and Modeling is an interdisciplinary research group of the Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technology

  16. Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report: Assessment of global-scale model performance for global and regional ozone distributions, variability, and trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. J. Young

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR is to provide the research community with an up-to-date scientific assessment of tropospheric ozone, from the surface to the tropopause. While a suite of observations provides significant information on the spatial and temporal distribution of tropospheric ozone, observational gaps make it necessary to use global atmospheric chemistry models to synthesize our understanding of the processes and variables that control tropospheric ozone abundance and its variability. Models facilitate the interpretation of the observations and allow us to make projections of future tropospheric ozone and trace gas distributions for different anthropogenic or natural perturbations. This paper assesses the skill of current-generation global atmospheric chemistry models in simulating the observed present-day tropospheric ozone distribution, variability, and trends. Drawing upon the results of recent international multi-model intercomparisons and using a range of model evaluation techniques, we demonstrate that global chemistry models are broadly skillful in capturing the spatio-temporal variations of tropospheric ozone over the seasonal cycle, for extreme pollution episodes, and changes over interannual to decadal periods. However, models are consistently biased high in the northern hemisphere and biased low in the southern hemisphere, throughout the depth of the troposphere, and are unable to replicate particular metrics that define the longer term trends in tropospheric ozone as derived from some background sites. When the models compare unfavorably against observations, we discuss the potential causes of model biases and propose directions for future developments, including improved evaluations that may be able to better diagnose the root cause of the model-observation disparity. Overall, model results should be approached critically, including determining whether the model performance is acceptable for

  17. Inventory of current environmental monitoring projects in the US-Canadian transboundary region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glantz, C.S.; Ballinger, M.Y.; Chapman, E.G.

    1986-05-01

    This document presents the results of a study commissioned to survey and summarize major environmental monitoring projects in the US-Canadian transboundary region. Projects with field sites located within 400 km (250 mi) of the border and active after 1980 were reviewed. The types of projects included: ambient air-quality monitoring, ambient water-quality monitoring, deposition monitoring, forest/vegetation monitoring and research, soil studies, and ecosystem studies. Ecosystem studies included projects involving the measurement of parameters from more than one monitoring category (e.g., studies that measured both water and soil chemistry). Individual descriptions were formulated for 184 projects meeting the spatial and temporal criteria. Descriptions included the official title for the project, its common abbreviation, program emphasis, monitoring site locations, time period conducted, parameters measured, protocols employed, frequency of sample collection, data storage information, and the principal contact for the project. A summary inventory subdivided according to the six monitoring categories was prepared using a computerized data management system. Information on major centralized data bases in the field of environmental monitoring was also obtained, and summary descriptions were prepared. The inventory and data base descriptions are presented in appendices to this document.

  18. Northeast regional and state trends in anuran occupancy from calling survey data (2001-2011) from the North American Amphibian Monitoring Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weir, Linda A.; Royle, Andy; Gazenski, Kimberly D.; Villena Carpio, Oswaldo

    2014-01-01

    We present the first regional trends in anuran occupancy from North American Amphibian Monitoring Program (NAAMP) data from 11 northeastern states using an 11 years of data. NAAMP is a long-term monitoring program where observers collect data at assigned random roadside routes using a calling survey technique. We assessed occupancy trends for 17 species. Eight species had statistically significant regional trends, of these seven were negative (Anaxyrus fowleri, Acris crepitans, Pseudacris brachyphona, Pseudacris feriarum-kalmi complex, Lithobates palustris, Lithobates pipiens, and Lithobates sphenocephalus) and one was positive (Hyla versicolor-chrysoscelis complex). We also assessed state level trends for 101 species/state combinations, of these 29 showed a significant decline and nine showed a significant increase in occupancy.

  19. A statistical adjustment approach for climate projections of snow conditions in mountain regions using energy balance land surface models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verfaillie, Deborah; Déqué, Michel; Morin, Samuel; Lafaysse, Matthieu

    2017-04-01

    Projections of future climate change have been increasingly called for lately, as the reality of climate change has been gradually accepted and societies and governments have started to plan upcoming mitigation and adaptation policies. In mountain regions such as the Alps or the Pyrenees, where winter tourism and hydropower production are large contributors to the regional revenue, particular attention is brought to current and future snow availability. The question of the vulnerability of mountain ecosystems as well as the occurrence of climate-related hazards such as avalanches and debris-flows is also under consideration. In order to generate projections of snow conditions, however, downscaling global climate models (GCMs) by using regional climate models (RCMs) is not sufficient to capture the fine-scale processes and thresholds at play. In particular, the altitudinal resolution matters, since the phase of precipitation is mainly controlled by the temperature which is altitude-dependent. Simulations from GCMs and RCMs moreover suffer from biases compared to local observations, due to their rather coarse spatial and altitudinal resolution, and often provide outputs at too coarse time resolution to drive impact models. RCM simulations must therefore be adjusted using empirical-statistical downscaling and error correction methods, before they can be used to drive specific models such as energy balance land surface models. In this study, time series of hourly temperature, precipitation, wind speed, humidity, and short- and longwave radiation were generated over the Pyrenees and the French Alps for the period 1950-2100, by using a new approach (named ADAMONT for ADjustment of RCM outputs to MOuNTain regions) based on quantile mapping applied to daily data, followed by time disaggregation accounting for weather patterns selection. We first introduce a thorough evaluation of the method using using model runs from the ALADIN RCM driven by a global reanalysis over the

  20. FOLA - the district heat supply project for the Olten-Aarau region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Utzinger, E.

    1986-01-01

    The FOLA project envisages supply of nuclear power station heat via pipe lines to communities in the Olten-Aarau region. The project is introduced with reference to environmental and oil saving advantages. Heat from the nuclear power station steam circuit converted via heat exchangers would be transmitted through pressurised hot water pipe line networks to user communities for extraction by heat exchangers at consumer installations. Some network details are discussed. The exact supply area is not yet finalised, but estimated heat loading is about 150 MW. Following further studies a construction and operating company could be formed, and heat delivery could commence in 1989. (H.V.H.)

  1. The paradox of cooling streams in a warming world: regional climate trends do not parallel variable local trends in stream temperature in the Pacific continental United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivan Arismendi; Sherri L. Johnson; Jason B. Dunham; Roy Haggerty

    2012-01-01

    Temperature is a fundamentally important driver of ecosystem processes in streams. Recent warming of terrestrial climates around the globe has motivated concern about consequent increases in stream temperature. More specifically, observed trends of increasing air temperature and declining stream flow are widely believed to result in corresponding increases in stream...

  2. NODC Standard Product: C-CAP Coastal Change Analysis Project - St. Croix estuary region (1985 - 1992) (NODC Accession 0090142)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Coastal Change Analysis Project St. Croix Estuary Region CD-ROM data set uses Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery from 1985 to 1992 to provide a regional change...

  3. Climate change projections for Greek viticulture as simulated by a regional climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazoglou, Georgia; Anagnostopoulou, Christina; Koundouras, Stefanos

    2017-07-01

    Viticulture represents an important economic activity for Greek agriculture. Winegrapes are cultivated in many areas covering the whole Greek territory, due to the favorable soil and climatic conditions. Given the dependence of viticulture on climate, the vitivinicultural sector is expected to be affected by possible climatic changes. The present study is set out to investigate the impacts of climatic change in Greek viticulture, using nine bioclimatic indices for the period 1981-2100. For this purpose, reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and data from the regional climatic model Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) are used. It was found that the examined regional climate model estimates satisfactorily these bioclimatic indices. The results of the study show that the increasing trend of temperature and drought will affect all wine-producing regions in Greece. In vineyards in mountainous regions, the impact is positive, while in islands and coastal regions, it is negative. Overall, it should be highlighted that for the first time that Greece is classified into common climatic characteristic categories, according to the international Geoviticulture Multicriteria Climatic Classification System (MCC system). According to the proposed classification, Greek viticulture regions are estimated to have similar climatic characteristics with the warmer wine-producing regions of the world up to the end of twenty-first century. Wine growers and winemakers should take the findings of the study under consideration in order to take measures for Greek wine sector adaptation and the continuation of high-quality wine production.

  4. Region-to-area screening methodology for the Crystalline Repository Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-04-01

    The purpose of this document is to describe the Crystalline Repository Project's (CRP) process for region-to-area screening of exposed and near-surface crystalline rock bodies in the three regions of the conterminous United States where crystalline rock is being evaluated as a potential host for the second nuclear waste repository (i.e., in the North Central, Northeastern, and Southeastern Regions). This document indicates how the US Department of Energy's (DOE) General Guidelines for the Recommendation of Sites for Nuclear Waste Repositories (10 CFR 960) were used to select and apply factors and variables for the region-to-area screening, explains how these factors and variable are to be applied in the region-to-area screening, and indicates how this methodology relates to the decision process leading to the selection of candidate areas. A brief general discussion of the screening process from the national survey through area screening and site recommendation is presented. This discussion sets the scene for detailed discussions which follow concerning the region-to-area screening process, the guidance provided by the DOE Siting Guidelines for establishing disqualifying factors and variables for screening, and application of the disqualifying factors and variables in the screening process. This document is complementary to the regional geologic and environmental characterization reports to be issued in the summer of 1985 as final documents. These reports will contain the geologic and environmental data base that will be used in conjunction with the methodology to conduct region-to-area screening

  5. Energy Smart Guide to Campus Cost Savings: Today's Trends in Project Finance, Clean Fuel Fleets, Combined Heat& Power, Emissions Markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2003-07-01

    The Energy Smart Guide to Campus Cost Savings covers today's trends in project finance, combined heat& power, clean fuel fleets and emissions trading. The guide is directed at campus facilities and business managers and contains general guidance, contact information and case studies from colleges and universities across the country.

  6. Southwestern Region climate change trends and forest planning: A guide for addressing climate change in forest plan revision on southwestern National Forests and Grasslands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard Periman; Christine Dawe; Bryce Rickel; Amy Unthank; Champe Green; Roy Jemison; Kurt Nelson; Brian Kent

    2009-01-01

    Climate scientists agree that the earth is undergoing a warming trend, and that human-caused elevations in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) are among the causes of global temperature increases. The observed concentrations of these greenhouse gases are projected to increase. Climate change may intensify the risk of...

  7. The NASA Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling (NASA STORM) Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, Christopher J.; Gatlin, Patrick N.; Lang, Timothy J.; Srikishen, Jayanthi; Case, Jonathan L.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Bailey, Jeffrey; Blakeslee, Richard J.; Jedlovec, Gary J.

    2016-01-01

    The NASA Severe Storm Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling(NASA STORM) project enhanced NASA’s severe weather research capabilities, building upon existing Earth Science expertise at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). During this project, MSFC extended NASA’s ground-based lightning detection capacity to include a readily deployable lightning mapping array (LMA). NASA STORM also enabled NASA’s Short-term Prediction and Research Transition (SPoRT) to add convection allowing ensemble modeling to its portfolio of regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) capabilities. As a part of NASA STORM, MSFC developed new open-source capabilities for analyzing and displaying weather radar observations integrated from both research and operational networks. These accomplishments enabled by NASA STORM are a step towards enhancing NASA’s capabilities for studying severe weather and positions them for any future NASA related severe storm field campaigns.

  8. A thirty year, fine-scale, characterization of area burned in Canadian forests shows evidence of regionally increasing trends in the last decade.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coops, Nicholas C; Hermosilla, Txomin; Wulder, Michael A; White, Joanne C; Bolton, Douglas K

    2018-01-01

    Fire as a dominant disturbance has profound implications on the terrestrial carbon cycle. We present the first ever multi-decadal, spatially-explicit, 30 meter assessment of fire regimes across the forested ecoregions of Canada at an annual time-step. From 1985 to 2015, 51 Mha burned, impacting over 6.5% of forested ecosystems. Mean annual area burned was 1,651,818 ha and varied markedly (σ = 1,116,119), with 25% of the total area burned occurring in three years: 1989, 1995, and 2015. Boreal forest types contained 98% of the total area burned, with the conifer-dominated Boreal Shield containing one-third of all burned area. While results confirm no significant national trend in burned area for the period of 1985 to 2015, a significant national increasing trend (α = 0.05) of 11% per year was evident for the past decade (2006 to 2015). Regionally, a significant increasing trend in total burned area from 1985 to 2015 was observed in the Montane Cordillera (2.4% increase per year), while the Taiga Plains and Taiga Shield West displayed significant increasing trends from 2006 to 2015 (26.1% and 12.7% increases per year, respectively). The Atlantic Maritime, which had the lowest burned area of all ecozones (0.01% burned per year), was the only ecozone to display a significant negative trend (2.4% decrease per year) from 1985 to 2015. Given the century-long fire return intervals in many of these ecozones, and large annual variability in burned area, short-term trends need to be interpreted with caution. Additional interpretive cautions are related to year used for trend initiation and the nature and extents of spatial regionalizations used for summarizing findings. The results of our analysis provide a baseline for monitoring future national and regional trends in burned area and offer spatially and temporally detailed insights to inform science, policy, and management.

  9. The Climaware project: Impacts of climate change on water resources management - regional strategies and European view

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thirel, Guillaume; D'Agostino, Daniela; Démerliac, Stéphane; Dorchies, David; Flörke, Martina; Jay-Allemand, Maxime; Jost, Claudine; Kehr, Katrin; Perrin, Charles; Scardigno, Alessandra; Schneider, Christof; Theobald, Stephan; Träbing, Klaus

    2014-05-01

    Climate projections produced with CMIP5 and applied by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its fifth assessment report indicate that changes in precipitation and temperature are expected to occur throughout Europe in the 21th century, with a likely decrease of water availability in many regions. Besides, water demand is also expected to increase, in link with these expected climate modifications, but also due to socio-economic and demographic changes. In this respect, the use of future freshwater resources may not be sustainable from the current water management perspective. Therefore adaptation strategies will most likely be needed to cope with these evolutions. In this context, the main objective of the ClimAware project (2010-2013 - www.uni-kassel.de/fb14/wasserbau/CLIMAWARE/, a project implemented within the IWRM-NET Funding Initiative) was to analyse the impacts of climate change (CC) on freshwater resources at the continental and regional scales and to identify efficient adaptation strategies to improve water management for various socio-economic sectors. This should contribute to a more effective implementation of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) and its instruments (river basin management plans, programmes of measures). The project developed integrated measures for improved freshwater management under CC constraints. More specifically, the objectives of the ClimAware project were to: • elaborate quantitative projections of changes in river flows and consequences such as flood frequency, drought occurrence and sectorial water uses. • analyse the effect of CC on the hydromorphological reference conditions of rivers and therefore the definition of "good status". • define management rules/strategies concerning dam management and irrigation practices on different time perspectives. • investigate uncertainties in climate model - scenario combinations. The research approach considered both European and regional perspectives, to get

  10. Climate related diseases. Current regional variability and projections to the year 2100

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Błażejczyk Krzysztof

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The health of individuals and societies depends on different factors including atmospheric conditions which influence humans in direct and indirect ways. The paper presents regional variability of some climate related diseases (CRD in Poland: salmonellosis intoxications, Lyme boreliosis, skin cancers (morbidity and mortality, influenza, overcooling deaths, as well as respiratory and circulatory mortality. The research consisted of two stages: 1 statistical modelling basing on past data and 2 projections of CRD for three SRES scenarios of climate change (A1B, A2, B1 to the year 2100. Several simple and multiply regression models were found for the relationships between climate variables and CRD. The models were applied to project future levels of CRD. At the end of 21st century we must expect increase in: circulatory mortality, Lyme boreliosis infections and skin cancer morbidity and mortality. There is also projected decrease in: respiratory mortality, overcooling deaths and influenza infections.

  11. Role of exposure in projected residential building cyclone risk for the Australian region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waters, Denis; Cechet, Bob; Arthur, Craig

    2010-01-01

    The paper presents a methodology to analyse the direct impact of tropical cyclone hazard on communities in northern Australia. The study focuses on the maximum potential intensity (MPI) of the cyclonic wind hazard, and location. Storm surge impacts were developed using a simple relationship between intensity and storm surge height and mid-point sea-level rise projections. The impact on residential building stock of severe wind and storm surge hazards associated with IPCC climate change scenarios is considered. Changes in residential building stock, for over 500 coastal statistical local areas (SLAs) from Southeast Queensland anticlockwise to Perth, were estimated using Australian Bureau of Statistics population projections through to 2100. A Probable Maximum Loss (PML) curve was derived, and the average annual cost across a 5000 year period (or 'annualised loss') was evaluated for each region. The projected population growth and the drift to coastal locations are significant elements in determining the damage associated with possible future cyclone threat.

  12. Asian regional co-operative project on food irradiation: Technology transfer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    These Proceedings include the final reports of work performed by different institutions under the scope of Phase II of the Asian Regional Co-operative Project on Food Irradiation. The topics covered include the disinfestation and decontamination of stored products; improvements in the hygiene of processed seafood; insect disinfestation of fruits; and sprout inhibition of root crops. The individual presentations are indexed separately. Refs, figs and tabs

  13. The role of external partners in regional cooperation projects in the Middle East

    OpenAIRE

    Raphael Bar-El; Miki Malul

    2008-01-01

    This article analyzes the extent to which external partners contribute to the internalization of externalities arising from regional cooperation in the Middle East, that is, the degree to which they help increase welfare gains generated by the projects. This is classified by extent, intensity, and sectors of cooperation. Externalities are defined macroeconomically and sociopolitically. The results show that the international community does play a role in the internalization of externalities. ...

  14. Magnetic susceptibility measurements of boring cores obtained from regional hydrological study project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hasegawa, Ken

    2010-02-01

    We measured the magnetic susceptibility of boring cores obtained from the Regional Hydrological Study Project to interpret the aeromagnetic survey data which was carried out in Tono area with about 40km square surrounding Tono Geoscience Center. The result of measurements indicates that the magnetic susceptibility of the Toki Granite is not distributed uniformly and the maximum value becomes two orders in magnitude larger than its minimum value. (author)

  15. Projecting changes in regional temperature and precipitation extremes in the United States

    OpenAIRE

    Justin T. Schoof; Scott M. Robeson

    2016-01-01

    Regional and local climate extremes, and their impacts, result from the multifaceted interplay between large-scale climate forcing, local environmental factors (physiography), and societal vulnerability. In this paper, we review historical and projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the United States, with a focus on strengths and weaknesses of (1) commonly used definitions for extremes such as thresholds and percentiles, (2) statistical approaches to quantifying change...

  16. eHealth for Remote Regions: Findings from Central Asia Health Systems Strengthening Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sajwani, Afroz; Qureshi, Kiran; Shaikh, Tehniat; Sayani, Saleem

    2015-01-01

    Isolated communities in remote regions of Afghanistan, Kyrgyz Republic, Pakistan and Tajikistan lack access to high-quality, low-cost health care services, forcing them to travel to distant parts of the country, bearing an unnecessary financial burden. The eHealth Programme under Central Asia Health Systems Strengthening (CAHSS) Project, a joint initiative between the Aga Khan Foundation, Canada and the Government of Canada, was initiated in 2013 with the aim to utilize Information and Communication Technologies to link health care institutions and providers with rural communities to provide comprehensive and coordinated care, helping minimize the barriers of distance and time. Under the CAHSS Project, access to low-cost, quality health care is provided through a regional hub and spoke teleconsultation network of government and non-government health facilities. In addition, capacity building initiatives are offered to health professionals. By 2017, the network is expected to connect seven Tier 1 tertiary care facilities with 14 Tier 2 secondary care facilities for teleconsultation and eLearning. From April 2013 to September 2014, 6140 teleconsultations have been provided across the project sites. Additionally, 52 new eLearning sessions have been developed and 2020 staff members have benefitted from eLearning sessions. Ethics and patient rights are respected during project implementation.

  17. Long-term trends in US gas supply and prices: 1993 edition of the GRI baseline projection of US energy supply and demand to 2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woods, T.J.

    1993-03-01

    A Summary of the gas supply outlook in the 1993 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand, adopted as a major input to the planning cycle of the 1994 research and development program, is presented. Significant changes were made in developing the gas supply and price trends for the 1993 edition of the projection. The GRI Hydrocarbon Model was expanded to include the Canadian hydrocarbon resource base. Thus, Canadian and lower-48 gas production and prices were developed on a fully integrated basis in the 1993 projection. The lower-48 hydrocarbon resource estimate was increased, reflecting the results of the recent National Petroleum Council gas study and ongoing GRI resource work. The effects of new technology and practice on drilling costs and exploration efficiency were included for the first time. Appendices include comparisons of supply and price trends

  18. Projection of regional demand for labour force under the terms of industry modernization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor Aleksandrovich Bayev

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The article represents the results of research devoted to the problem of demand for labour force projection. The two main priorities of Russian economic development — modernization and innovation — are declared as the factors influencing labour market in a rather intrinsic and specific way. The research of dependence between GDP growth rate per occupied in the most developed countries is conducted and shows the positive influence the innovation process imposes on the demand for labour force. The particular problem is proved to be semi-structured. The selforganisation approach to this problem is proposed and helps to detect that the main shaping process of labour market dynamics is industry modernization. The trend of modernization influence on demand for labour force is revealed and taken under consideration while developing the mathematical model, enabling to predict the demand for labour force with not more than 2% mean absolute percentage error.

  19. A Mapping of Marine Biodiversity Research Trends and Collaboration in the East Asia Region from 1996–2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jungjoon Kim

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Many countries define policies to manage oceans and coastal areas in order to utilize marine ecosystems strategically. When we reviewed the strategies and policies of various countries in relation to ocean sustainability, we found that biodiversity preservation is a key issue for policies related to sustainable marine development. We investigated the research trends and collaboration status of China, Japan and South Korea regarding marine biodiversity through the analysis of scientific articles using bibliometric analysis. The results showed that Japan collaborated the most with other countries compared to China and South Korea. All three countries collaborated with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN countries frequently. South Korea showed the strongest inter-collaboration amongst China, Japan and South Korea. Microorganism research is a common research topic in China, Japan and South Korea. Each country demonstrated its own prominent research area, such as local region research in China, deep-sea research in Japan and aquaculture research in South Korea.

  20. Epidemiological trends of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Al-Madinah Al-Munawarah Province, Western Region of Saudi Arabia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miskelyemen Abdelatti Elmekki

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To investigate the epidemiological trends of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL in Al-Madinah Al-Munawarah, western region of KSA. Materials and Methods: Four hundred and sixty-seven parasitologically confirmed CL cases attending Al-Meeqat Hospital, Al-Madinah, during 2012–2015, were included in this study. Results: Both Saudi and non-Saudi nationals were infected, with the highest infection rate being among Saudis (68.7%. Males were more affected than females as 86.9% of the total CL cases were males. Moreover, CL was prevalent in all age groups with higher frequency among young adults and adolescents (23.1% and 22.7%, respectively. Interestingly, almost all the patients in the adolescent and child age groups were Saudis (96.2% and 93.5%, respectively. Considering geographical distribution, the highest percentage of the cases (40.5% were from the northern parts of Al-Madinah province while the eastern parts reported the least infection rate (7.3%. Few cases (2.5% were supposed to encounter the infection abroad. Additionally, the frequency of infection was found to follow a seasonal distribution. Regarding treatment, pentostam, ketoconazole, or cryotherapy were the treatment options usually used. Conclusion: CL is prevalent in Al-Madinah Al-Munawarah area and new foci are being introduced. Thus, detailed studies with large surveillances regarding vector and reservoir hosts in and around the area are needed.

  1. TRENDS IN USE OF THE STEPPE LAND RESOURCES OF STAVROPOL REGION IN DIFFERENT PERIODS OF THE AGRARIAN ECONOMY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena V. Pismennaya

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract. The aim of this work is to examine trends in the development of agriculture and its industries, land and primary production on the territory of the steppe zone of Stavropol region during the natural history period (18502016. The analysis allows us to identify the main periods of evolution of land use and environmental and economic problems, as well as measures to overcome them. Methods. The following structure "nature – society – economy" describes the analytical and mathematical models. The structure of land use is described as the system "nature – society – economy" and is reflected in the analytical and mathematical models. They provide insight into the dynamics of change in quantitative indicators (area of agricultural areas and wetlands, crop yields, basic agri-environmental data, etc. and qualitative transformation of the latter (the presence of erosive and deflationary processes and other phenomena. In addition, careful attention is paid to the managerial decisions and activities, as well as opportunistic and market factors that influence the dynamics of the above changes during the period under review. To adjust for land development it is very important to pay attention on climatic conditions, which recently have a tendency to significant changes. Results. Analysis of economic development of the steppe areas allows to determine the structuralfunctional model of land use, to identify the main environmental and economic factors influencing its development. Main conclusion. This approach allows us to correct managerial decisions, stabilizing land use in the industrial sector.

  2. The Sea Stacks Project: Enhancing the Use of Regional Literature in Atlantic Canadian Schools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vivian Howard

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Research over the past two decades has amply demonstrated the importance of literature to the formation of both regional and national cultural identity, particularly in the face of mass market globalization of children’s book publishing in the 21st century as well as the predominance of non-Canadian content from television, movies, books, magazines and internet media. However, Canadian children appear to have only very limited exposure to Canadian authors and illustrators. In Atlantic Canada, regional Atlantic Canadian authors and illustrators for children receive very limited critical attention, and resources for the study and teaching of Atlantic Canadian children’s literature are few. Print and digital information sources on regional children’s books, publishing, authors and illustrators are scattered and inconsistent in quality and currency. This research project directly addresses these key concerns by summarizing the findings of a survey of Atlantic Canadian teachers on their use of regional books. In response to survey findings, the paper concludes by describing the creation of the Sea Stacks Project an authoritative web-delivered information resource devoted to contemporary Atlantic Canadian literature for children and teens.

  3. Regional sea level projections with observed gauge, altimeter and reconstructed data along China coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, L.; Shi, H.; Zhang, S.

    2017-12-01

    Acting as the typical shelf seas in northwest Pacific Ocean, regional sea level along China coasts exhibits complicated and multiscale spatial-temporal characteristics under circumstance of global change. In this paper, sea level variability is investigated with tide gauges records, satellite altimetry data, reconstructed sea surface height, and CMIP simulation fields. Sea level exhibits the interannual variability imposing on a remarkable sea level rising in the China seas and coastal region, although its seasonal signals are significant as the results of global ocean. Sea level exhibits faster rising rate during the satellite altimetry era, nearly twice to the rate during the last sixty years. AVISO data and reconstructed sea surface heights illustrate good correlation coefficient, more than 0.8. Interannual sea level variation is mainly modulated by the low-frequency variability of wind fields over northern Pacific Ocean by local and remote processes. Meanwhile sea level varies obviously by the transport fluctuation and bimodality path of Kuroshio. Its variability possibly linked to internal variability of the ocean-atmosphere system influenced by ENSO oscillation. China Sea level have been rising during the 20th century, and are projected to continue to rise during this century. Sea level can reach the highest extreme level in latter half of 21st century. Modeled sea level including regional sea level projection combined with the IPCC climate scenarios play a significant role on coastal storm surge evolution. The vulnerable regions along the ECS coast will suffer from the increasing storm damage with sea level variations.

  4. Impact of Inter‐Basin Water Transfer Projects on Regional Ecological Security from a Telecoupling Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan Quan

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Inter‐basin water transfer projects (IBWTPs offer one of the most important means to solve the mismatch between supply and demand of regional water resources. IBWTPs have impacts on the complex ecosystems of the areas from which water is diverted and to which water is received. These impacts increase damage or risk to regional ecological security and human wellbeing. However, current methods make it difficult to achieve comprehensive analysis of the impacts of whole ecosystems, because of the long distance between ecosystems and the inconsistency of impact events. In this study, a model was proposed for the analysis of the impacts of IBWTPs on regional ecological security. It is based on the telecoupling framework, and the Driver‐Pressure‐State‐ Impact‐Response (DPSIR model was used to improve the analysis procedure within the telecoupling framework. The Middle Line of the South‐to‐North Water Diversion Project was selected as a case study to illustrate the specific analysis procedure. We realized that information sharing is a key issue in the management of regional security, and that the ecological water requirement, in the form of a single index, could be used to quantitatively assess the impacts on ecological security from IBWTPs.

  5. Response to state comments on the draft regional characterization reports for the Crystalline Repository Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-11-01

    In May, 1983, the US Department of Energy (DOE) Crystalline Repository Project Office (CPO) issued six draft Regional Characterization Reports (RCRs) for review and comment to the 17 Crystalline States comprising the Northeastern, Southeastern, and North Central crystalline regions. Comment letters were received from 13 of the 17 states. The more than 2000 comments generally focused on the quality and content of the characterization reports and on their intended use in region-to-area screening. These comments were paraphrased and grouped into 23 subjects within the following four topical areas: (1) General and Programmatic; (2) Geologic; (3) Environmental and Socioeconomic; and (4) Editorial. This document provides responses to the comments submitted by the states

  6. Working Life and Retirement Expectancies at Age 50 by Social Class: Period and Cohort Trends and Projections for Finland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leinonen, Taina; Martikainen, Pekka; Myrskylä, Mikko

    2018-01-11

    The balance between the amount of time spent in work and in retirement underlies the long-term sustainability of the social security system. We examined socioeconomic differences in how increasing longevity is distributed between labor market statuses in Finland. We used register data and the Sullivan method to analyze life expectancy at age 50 spent in different labor market statuses over the period 1989-2012 and across cohorts born in 1938-1953. We projected the future mortality and labor market participation rates of partially observed cohorts. Both working life expectancy at age 50 and the share of remaining life spent in work have increased across periods following the recession of the early 1990s, and across successive cohorts. The trends were similar across the social classes, but there were large differences in the numbers of years spent in various states: for the most recent period and the youngest cohort, we find that compared with upper non-manual employees, male and female manual workers were expected to spend 3.6-3.7 fewer years in work, 1.7-4.7 fewer years in statutory retirement, and 3.2-3.9 more years in other forms of nonemployment. Our finding that the share of remaining life at age 50 spent in work is increasing implies that pressure on the welfare system is not as severe as is commonly thought. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  7. Riverine Nutrient Trends in the Sacramento and San Joaquin Basins, California: A Comparison to State and Regional Water Quality Policies

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    Brandon Schlegel

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available doi: http://dx.doi.org/1015447/sfews.2015v13iss4art2Non-point source (NPS contaminant control strategies were initiated in California in the late 1980s under the authority of the State Porter–Cologne Act and eventually for the development of total maximum daily load (TMDL plans, under the federal Clean Water Act. Most of the NPS TMDLs developed for California’s Central Valley (CV region were related to pesticides, but not nutrients. Efforts to reduce pesticide loads and concentrations began in earnest around 1990. The NPS control strategies either encouraged or mandated the use of management practices (MPs. Although TMDLs were largely developed for pesticides, the resultant MPs might have affected the runoff of other potential contaminants (such as nutrients. This study evaluates the effect of agricultural NPS control strategies implemented in California’s CV before and between 1990 and 2013, on nutrients, by comparing trends in surface-water concentrations and loads. In general, use of MPs was encouraged during a “voluntary” period (1990 to 2004 and mandated during an “enforcement” period (2004 to 2013. Nutrient concentrations, loads, and trends were estimated by using a recently developed Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS model. Sufficient total phosphorus (TP, total nitrogen (TN, and nitrate (NO3 data were available to compare the voluntary and enforcement periods for twelve sites within the lower Sacramento and San Joaquin basins. Ammonia concentrations and fluxes were evaluated at a subset of these sites. For six of these sites, flow-normalized mean annual concentrations of TP or NO3 decreased at a faster rate during the enforcement period than during the voluntary period. Concentration changes during similar years and ranges of flow conditions suggest that MPs designed for pesticides may also have reduced nutrient loads. Results show that enforceable NPS policies, and accelerated MP implementation

  8. Relationship between intraoperative regional cerebral oxygen saturation trends and cognitive decline after total knee replacement: a post-hoc analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salazar, Fátima; Doñate, Marta; Boget, Teresa; Bogdanovich, Ana; Basora, Misericordia; Torres, Ferran; Gracia, Isabel; Fàbregas, Neus

    2014-01-01

    Bilateral regional brain oxygen saturation (rSO2) trends, reflecting intraoperative brain oxygen imbalance, could warn of brain dysfunction. Various types of cognitive impairment, such as memory decline, alterations in executive function or subjective complaints, have been described three months after surgery. Our aim was to explore the potential utility of rSO2 values as a warning sign for the development of different types of decline in postoperative psychological function. Observational post-hoc analysis of data for the patient sample (n = 125) of a previously conducted clinical trial in patients over the age of 65 years undergoing total knee replacement under spinal anesthesia. Demographic, hemodynamic and bilateral rSO2 intraoperative values were recorded. An absolute rSO2 value of 20% or >25% below baseline were chosen as relevant cutoffs. Composite function test scores were created from baseline to three months for each patient and adjusted for the mean (SD) score changes for a control group (n = 55). Tests were used to assess visual-motor coordination and executive function (VM-EF) (Wechsler Digit Symbol-Coding and Visual Reproduction, Trail Making Test) and memory (Auditory Verbal Learning, Wechsler Memory Scale); scales were used to assess psychological symptoms. We observed no differences in baseline rSO2 values; rSO2 decreased significantly in all patients during surgery (P Left and right rSO2 values were asymmetric in patients who had memory decline (mean [SD] left-right ratio of 95.03 [8.51] vs 101.29 [6.7] for patients with no changes, P = 0.0012). The mean right-left difference in rSO2 was also significant in these patients (-2.87% [4.73%], lower on the right, P = 0.0034). Detection of a trend to asymmetry in rSO2 values can warn of possible postoperative onset of memory decline. Psychological symptoms and memory decline were common three months after knee replacement in our patients over the age of 65 years.

  9. Current Trends in Name Giving among Bulgarians: A Study of the Names of Newborns in the Sofia Region

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    Maya Vlahova-Angelova

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The article showcases a large-scale study of the modern Bulgarian anthroponymic system conducted by the Applied Onomastics section of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences Institute for the Bulgarian Language (IBL with the aim of revealing the current trends in the choice of personal names by the Bulgarians at the beginning of the 21st century. The study focuses on personal names of Bulgarians born in 2010 in the Sofia region, as extracted from the Unified System of Civil Registration and Administrative Services of the Population of the Republic of Bulgaria. The total number of births this year was 1,005, of which 51.5% were boys, 48.5% were girls. Statistical and linguistic analysis of names allowed to measure the popularity of both individual personal names and different name types. It shows the quantitative ratio between most commonly chosen names and those of a singular use in relation to the total number of anthroponyms in the corpus, and proves that the male names are more sustainable in terms of usage than female. The derivational and etymological analysis of personal names helped to identify the productive word-formation types of names and the so-called “unisex names,” to distinguish between the native Bulgarian and the borrowed foreign names, as well as to classify graphic and phonetic variants of the same anthroponym. A number of quantitative comparisons were made between certain categories of names, for example, between compound (two-stem personal names (such as Miroslav and simple names (such as Biser, showing the ratio of the two-component personal names (such as Anna-Maria to the rest of the anthroponyms. It was found that the Bulgarian anthroponymic system in the beginning of the 21st century is more open to the non-adapted foreign names (like Mishel, Nancy, shows wider usage of diminutive “unisex names” (Moni, Stephy, Toni, as well as the growing popularity of shortened forms used as official names (Alex, Boni, Pepi, and the

  10. Land Use Effects on Net Greenhouse Gas Fluxes in the US Great Plains: Historical Trends and Model Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Grosso, S. J.; Parton, W. J.; Ojima, D. S.; Mosier, A. R.; Mosier, A. R.; Paustian, K.; Peterson, G. A.

    2001-12-01

    We present maps showing regional patterns of land use change and soil C levels in the US Great Plains during the 20th century and time series of net greenhouse gas fluxes associated with different land uses. Net greenhouse gas fluxes were calculated by accounting for soil CO2 fluxes, the CO2 equivalents of N2O emissions and CH4 uptake, and the CO2 costs of N fertilizer production. Both historical and modern agriculture in this region have been net sources of greenhouse gases. The primary reason for this, prior to 1950, is that agriculture mined soil C and resulted in net CO2 emissions. When chemical N fertilizer became widely used in the 1950's agricultural soils began to sequester CO2-C but these soils were still net greenhouse gas sources if the effects of increased N2O emissions and decreased CH4 uptake are included. The sensitivity of net greenhouse gas fluxes to conventional and alternative land uses was explored using the DAYCENT ecosystem model. Model projections suggest that conversion to no-till, reduction of the fallow period, and use of nitrification inhibitors can significantly decrease net greenhouse gas emissions in dryland and irrigated systems, while maintaining or increasing crop yields.

  11. Digitisation Project Planning in the Maribor City Library as a Form of Regional Cross Institutional Cooperation

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    Nina Hriberšek Vuk

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available EXTENDED ABSTRACT:More and more Slovenian public libraries have been facing the question of selection criteria for digitisation of library materials as well as the issue of financial resources, copyright permission and the promotion of digitised materials. Libraries having long tradition of collecting valuable local history resources are more convinced about the selection criteria. Digitisation is, in spite of being expensive, time consuming and labour intensive, an easy method to enable quick access to library materials, to promote and preserve library collections. The mission of the central regional public library (cofinanced by the Ministry of Culture is not only to coordinate the collection, cataloguing and storage of local history resources but also to coordinate local history digital projects. Due to historical circumstances, the local history resources were first collected by the Maribor University Library. It is only in the recent past that the Maribor City Library has started to systematically collect these materials. Due to this fact, the Maribor City Library does not hold an extensive collection of rare and valuable local history items. It was initially faced with the problem of selection criteria for digitisation. However, it soon succeeded to establish the strategy to promote the local history collections in the region, regardless of their location. Thus the library started to cooperate with different regional institutions and the first partner projects were designed. In the year 2007 the library collaborated with the elementary school at Lovrenc na Pohorju and decided to digitise research papers of ex-pupils of the school. The first part of the project was accomplished in 2007 when 72 research papers were digitised, in the next two years their number was increased as the second part of the project was concluded. The papers were published on the KAMRA portal and the project was promoted at the summer annual meeting at Lovrenc na

  12. Spatio-Temporal Trends of Oak Decline and Mortality under Periodic Regional Drought in the Ozark Highlands of Arkansas and Missouri

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhaofei Fan; Xiuli Fan; Michael K. Crosby; W. Keith Moser; Hong He; Martin A. Spetich; Stephen R. Shifley

    2012-01-01

    At the forest landscape/region level, based on annual Forest Inventory and Analysis plot data from 1999 to 2010, oak decline and mortality trends for major oak species (groups) were examined in the Ozark Highlands of Arkansas and Missouri. Oak decline has elevated cumulative mortality of red oak species to between 11 and 15 percent in terms of relative density and..